Research Synthesis Methods in an Age of Globalized Risks: Lessons from the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease Expert Elicitation.

PubMed

2016-02-01

We live in an age that increasingly calls for national or regional management of global risks. This article discusses the contributions that expert elicitation can bring to efforts to manage global risks and identifies challenges faced in conducting expert elicitation at this scale. In doing so it draws on lessons learned from conducting an expert elicitation as part of the World Health Organizations (WHO) initiative to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease; a study commissioned by the Foodborne Disease Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG). Expert elicitation is designed to fill gaps in data and research using structured, transparent methods. Such gaps are a significant challenge for global risk modeling. Experience with the WHO FERG expert elicitation shows that it is feasible to conduct an expert elicitation at a global scale, but that challenges do arise, including: defining an informative, yet feasible geographical structure for the elicitation; defining what constitutes expertise in a global setting; structuring international, multidisciplinary expert panels; and managing demands on experts' time in the elicitation. This article was written as part of a workshop, "Methods for Research Synthesis: A Cross-Disciplinary Approach" held at the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis on October 13, 2013. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases.

PubMed

Aspinall, W P; Cooke, R M; Havelaar, A H; Hoffmann, S; Hald, T

2016-01-01

For many societally important science-based decisions, data are inadequate, unreliable or non-existent, and expert advice is sought. In such cases, procedures for eliciting structured expert judgments (SEJ) are increasingly used. This raises questions regarding validity and reproducibility. This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert's statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values. Equal weights combinations were also calculated. The main conclusions on expert performance are: (1) SEJ does provide a science-based method for attribution of the global burden of foodborne diseases; (2) equal weighting of experts per panel increased statistical accuracy to acceptable levels, but at the cost of informativeness; (3) performance-based weighting increased informativeness, while retaining accuracy; (4) due to study constraints individual experts' accuracies were generally lower than in other SEJ studies, and (5) there was a negative correlation between experts' informativeness and statistical accuracy which attenuated as accuracy improved, revealing that the least accurate experts drive the negative correlation. It is shown, however, that performance-based weighting has the ability to yield statistically accurate and informative combinations of experts' judgments, thereby offsetting this contrary influence. The present findings suggest that application of SEJ on a large scale is feasible, and motivate the development of enhanced training and tools for remote

Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases

PubMed Central

Aspinall, W. P.; Cooke, R. M.; Havelaar, A. H.; Hoffmann, S.; Hald, T.

2016-01-01

For many societally important science-based decisions, data are inadequate, unreliable or non-existent, and expert advice is sought. In such cases, procedures for eliciting structured expert judgments (SEJ) are increasingly used. This raises questions regarding validity and reproducibility. This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert’s statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values. Equal weights combinations were also calculated. The main conclusions on expert performance are: (1) SEJ does provide a science-based method for attribution of the global burden of foodborne diseases; (2) equal weighting of experts per panel increased statistical accuracy to acceptable levels, but at the cost of informativeness; (3) performance-based weighting increased informativeness, while retaining accuracy; (4) due to study constraints individual experts’ accuracies were generally lower than in other SEJ studies, and (5) there was a negative correlation between experts' informativeness and statistical accuracy which attenuated as accuracy improved, revealing that the least accurate experts drive the negative correlation. It is shown, however, that performance-based weighting has the ability to yield statistically accurate and informative combinations of experts' judgments, thereby offsetting this contrary influence. The present findings suggest that application of SEJ on a large scale is feasible, and motivate the development of enhanced training and tools for remote

Group elicitations yield more consistent, yet more uncertain experts in understanding risks to ecosystem services in New Zealand bays

PubMed Central

Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai

2017-01-01

The elicitation of expert judgment is an important tool for assessment of risks and impacts in environmental management contexts, and especially important as decision-makers face novel challenges where prior empirical research is lacking or insufficient. Evidence-driven elicitation approaches typically involve techniques to derive more accurate probability distributions under fairly specific contexts. Experts are, however, prone to overconfidence in their judgements. Group elicitations with diverse experts can reduce expert overconfidence by allowing cross-examination and reassessment of prior judgements, but groups are also prone to uncritical “groupthink” errors. When the problem context is underspecified the probability that experts commit groupthink errors may increase. This study addresses how structured workshops affect expert variability among and certainty within responses in a New Zealand case study. We find that experts’ risk estimates before and after a workshop differ, and that group elicitations provided greater consistency of estimates, yet also greater uncertainty among experts, when addressing prominent impacts to four different ecosystem services in coastal New Zealand. After group workshops, experts provided more consistent ranking of risks and more consistent best estimates of impact through increased clarity in terminology and dampening of extreme positions, yet probability distributions for impacts widened. The results from this case study suggest that group elicitations have favorable consequences for the quality and uncertainty of risk judgments within and across experts, making group elicitation techniques invaluable tools in contexts of limited data. PMID:28767694

40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... judgment elicitation processes and the reasoning behind those results. Documentation of interviews used to elicit judgments from experts, the questions or issues presented for elicitation of expert judgment... expert judgment elicitation comports with the level of knowledge required by the questions or issues...

40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... judgment elicitation processes and the reasoning behind those results. Documentation of interviews used to elicit judgments from experts, the questions or issues presented for elicitation of expert judgment... expert judgment elicitation comports with the level of knowledge required by the questions or issues...

Expert Elicitations of 2100 Emission of CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Emily; Bosetti, Valentina; Budescu, David; Keller, Klaus; van Vuuren, Detlef

2017-04-01

Emission scenarios such as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used intensively for climate research (e.g. climate change projections) and policy analysis. While the range of these scenarios provides an indication of uncertainty, these scenarios are typically not associated with probability values. Some studies (e.g. Vuuren et al, 2007; Gillingham et al., 2015) took a different approach associating baseline emission pathways (conditionally) with probability distributions. This paper summarizes three studies where climate change experts were asked to conduct pair-wise comparisons of possible ranges of 2100 greenhouse gas emissions and rate the relative likelihood of the ranges. The elicitation was performed under two sets of assumptions: 1) a situation where no climate policies are introduced beyond the ones already in place (baseline scenario), and 2) a situation in which countries have ratified the voluntary policies in line with the long term target embedded in the 2015 Paris Agreement. These indirect relative judgments were used to construct subjective cumulative distribution functions. We show that by using a ratio scaling method that invokes relative likelihoods of scenarios, a subjective probability distribution can be derived for each expert that expresses their beliefs in the projected greenhouse gas emissions range in 2100. This method is shown to elicit stable estimates that require minimal adjustment and is relatively invariant to the partition of the domain of interest. Experts also rated the method as being easy and intuitive to use. We also report results of a study that allowed participants to choose their own ranges of greenhouse gas emissions to remove potential anchoring bias. We discuss the implications of the use of this method for facilitating comparison and communication of beliefs among diverse users of climate science research.

Expert Elicitation of Multinomial Probabilities for Decision-Analytic Modeling: An Application to Rates of Disease Progression in Undiagnosed and Untreated Melanoma.

PubMed

Wilson, Edward C F; Usher-Smith, Juliet A; Emery, Jon; Corrie, Pippa G; Walter, Fiona M

2018-06-01

Expert elicitation is required to inform decision making when relevant "better quality" data either do not exist or cannot be collected. An example of this is to inform decisions as to whether to screen for melanoma. A key input is the counterfactual, in this case the natural history of melanoma in patients who are undiagnosed and hence untreated. To elicit expert opinion on the probability of disease progression in patients with melanoma that is undetected and hence untreated. A bespoke webinar-based expert elicitation protocol was administered to 14 participants in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand, comprising 12 multinomial questions on the probability of progression from one disease stage to another in the absence of treatment. A modified Connor-Mosimann distribution was fitted to individual responses to each question. Individual responses were pooled using a Monte-Carlo simulation approach. Participants were asked to provide feedback on the process. A pooled modified Connor-Mosimann distribution was successfully derived from participants' responses. Feedback from participants was generally positive, with 86% willing to take part in such an exercise again. Nevertheless, only 57% of participants felt that this was a valid approach to determine the risk of disease progression. Qualitative feedback reflected some understanding of the need to rely on expert elicitation in the absence of "hard" data. We successfully elicited and pooled the beliefs of experts in melanoma regarding the probability of disease progression in a format suitable for inclusion in a decision-analytic model. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

PubMed

Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

2016-01-01

There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods.

Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trutnevyte, Evelina; Azevedo, Inês L.

2018-03-01

Induced seismicity is a concern for multiple geoenergy applications, including low-carbon enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). We present the results of an international expert elicitation (n = 14) on EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk. Using a hypothetical scenario of an EGS plant and its geological context, we show that expert best-guess estimates of annualized exceedance probabilities of an M ≥ 3 event range from 0.2%-95% during reservoir stimulation and 0.2%-100% during operation. Best-guess annualized exceedance probabilities of M ≥ 5 event span from 0.002%-2% during stimulation and 0.003%-3% during operation. Assuming that tectonic M7 events could occur, some experts do not exclude induced (triggered) events of up to M7 too. If an induced M = 3 event happens at 5 km depth beneath a town with 10 000 inhabitants, most experts estimate a 50% probability that the loss is contained within 500 000 USD without any injuries or fatalities. In the case of an induced M = 5 event, there is 50% chance that the loss is below 50 million USD with the most-likely outcome of 50 injuries and one fatality or none. As we observe a vast diversity in quantitative expert judgements and underlying mental models, we conclude with implications for induced seismicity risk governance. That is, we suggest documenting individual expert judgements in induced seismicity elicitations before proceeding to consensual judgements, to convene larger expert panels in order not to cherry-pick the experts, and to aim for multi-organization multi-model assessments of EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk.

An expert elicitation process to project the frequency and magnitude of Florida manatee mortality events caused by red tide (Karenia brevis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Julien; Runge, Michael C.; Flewelling, Leanne J.; Deutsch, Charles J.; Landsberg, Jan H.

2017-11-20

Red tides (blooms of the harmful alga Karenia brevis) are one of the major sources of mortality for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), especially in southwest Florida. It has been hypothesized that the frequency and severity of red tides may increase in the future because of global climate change and other factors. To improve our ecological forecast for the effects of red tides on manatee population dynamics and long-term persistence, we conducted a formal expert judgment process to estimate probability distributions for the frequency and relative magnitude of red-tide-related manatee mortality (RTMM) events over a 100-year time horizon in three of the four regions recognized as manatee management units in Florida. This information was used to update a population viability analysis for the Florida manatee (the Core Biological Model). We convened a panel of 12 experts in manatee biology or red-tide ecology; the panel met to frame, conduct, and discuss the elicitation. Each expert provided a best estimate and plausible low and high values (bounding a confidence level of 80 percent) for each parameter in each of three regions (Northwest, Southwest, and Atlantic) of the subspecies’ range (excluding the Upper St. Johns River region) for two time periods (0−40 and 41−100 years from present). We fitted probability distributions for each parameter, time period, and expert by using these three elicited values. We aggregated the parameter estimates elicited from individual experts and fitted a parametric distribution to the aggregated results.Across regions, the experts expected the future frequency of RTMM events to be higher than historical levels, which is consistent with the hypothesis that global climate change (among other factors) may increase the frequency of red-tide blooms. The experts articulated considerable uncertainty, however, about the future frequency of RTMM events. The historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM (combined) in

Expert elicitation for a national-level volcano hazard model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bebbington, Mark; Stirling, Mark; Cronin, Shane; Wang, Ting; Jolly, Gill

2016-04-01

The quantification of volcanic hazard at national level is a vital pre-requisite to placing volcanic risk on a platform that permits meaningful comparison with other hazards such as earthquakes. New Zealand has up to a dozen dangerous volcanoes, with the usual mixed degrees of knowledge concerning their temporal and spatial eruptive history. Information on the 'size' of the eruptions, be it in terms of VEI, volume or duration, is sketchy at best. These limitations and the need for a uniform approach lend themselves to a subjective hazard analysis via expert elicitation. Approximately 20 New Zealand volcanologists provided estimates for the size of the next eruption from each volcano and, conditional on this, its location, timing and duration. Opinions were likewise elicited from a control group of statisticians, seismologists and (geo)chemists, all of whom had at least heard the term 'volcano'. The opinions were combined via the Cooke classical method. We will report on the preliminary results from the exercise.

Assessing nutrient flows in septic tanks by eliciting expert judgement: a promising method in the context of developing countries.

PubMed

Montangero, Agnes; Belevi, Hasan

2007-03-01

Simple models based on the physical and biochemical processes occurring in septic tanks, pit and urine diversion latrines were developed to determine the nutrient flows in these systems. Nitrogen and phosphorus separation in different output materials from these on-site sanitation installations were thus determined. Moreover, nutrient separation in septic tanks was also assessed through literature values and by eliciting expert judgement. Use of formal expert elicitation technique proved to be effective, particularly in the context of developing countries where data is often scarce but expert judgement readily available. In Vietnam, only 5-14% and 11-27% of the nitrogen and phosphorus input, respectively, are removed from septic tanks with the faecal sludge. The remaining fraction leaves the tank via the liquid effluent. Unlike septic tanks, urine diversion latrines allow to immobilize most of the nutrients either in form of stored urine or dehydrated faecal matter. These latrines thus contribute to reducing the nutrient load in the environment and lowering consumption of energy and non-renewable resources for fertiliser production.

Development of a practical approach to expert elicitation for randomised controlled trials with missing health outcomes: Application to the IMPROVE trial.

PubMed

Mason, Alexina J; Gomes, Manuel; Grieve, Richard; Ulug, Pinar; Powell, Janet T; Carpenter, James

2017-08-01

The analyses of randomised controlled trials with missing data typically assume that, after conditioning on the observed data, the probability of missing data does not depend on the patient's outcome, and so the data are 'missing at random' . This assumption is usually implausible, for example, because patients in relatively poor health may be more likely to drop out. Methodological guidelines recommend that trials require sensitivity analysis, which is best informed by elicited expert opinion, to assess whether conclusions are robust to alternative assumptions about the missing data. A major barrier to implementing these methods in practice is the lack of relevant practical tools for eliciting expert opinion. We develop a new practical tool for eliciting expert opinion and demonstrate its use for randomised controlled trials with missing data. We develop and illustrate our approach for eliciting expert opinion with the IMPROVE trial (ISRCTN 48334791), an ongoing multi-centre randomised controlled trial which compares an emergency endovascular strategy versus open repair for patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm. In the IMPROVE trial at 3 months post-randomisation, 21% of surviving patients did not complete health-related quality of life questionnaires (assessed by EQ-5D-3L). We address this problem by developing a web-based tool that provides a practical approach for eliciting expert opinion about quality of life differences between patients with missing versus complete data. We show how this expert opinion can define informative priors within a fully Bayesian framework to perform sensitivity analyses that allow the missing data to depend upon unobserved patient characteristics. A total of 26 experts, of 46 asked to participate, completed the elicitation exercise. The elicited quality of life scores were lower on average for the patients with missing versus complete data, but there was considerable uncertainty in these elicited values. The missing at

Development of a practical approach to expert elicitation for randomised controlled trials with missing health outcomes: Application to the IMPROVE trial

PubMed Central

Mason, Alexina J; Gomes, Manuel; Grieve, Richard; Ulug, Pinar; Powell, Janet T; Carpenter, James

2017-01-01

Background/aims: The analyses of randomised controlled trials with missing data typically assume that, after conditioning on the observed data, the probability of missing data does not depend on the patient’s outcome, and so the data are ‘missing at random’ . This assumption is usually implausible, for example, because patients in relatively poor health may be more likely to drop out. Methodological guidelines recommend that trials require sensitivity analysis, which is best informed by elicited expert opinion, to assess whether conclusions are robust to alternative assumptions about the missing data. A major barrier to implementing these methods in practice is the lack of relevant practical tools for eliciting expert opinion. We develop a new practical tool for eliciting expert opinion and demonstrate its use for randomised controlled trials with missing data. Methods: We develop and illustrate our approach for eliciting expert opinion with the IMPROVE trial (ISRCTN 48334791), an ongoing multi-centre randomised controlled trial which compares an emergency endovascular strategy versus open repair for patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm. In the IMPROVE trial at 3 months post-randomisation, 21% of surviving patients did not complete health-related quality of life questionnaires (assessed by EQ-5D-3L). We address this problem by developing a web-based tool that provides a practical approach for eliciting expert opinion about quality of life differences between patients with missing versus complete data. We show how this expert opinion can define informative priors within a fully Bayesian framework to perform sensitivity analyses that allow the missing data to depend upon unobserved patient characteristics. Results: A total of 26 experts, of 46 asked to participate, completed the elicitation exercise. The elicited quality of life scores were lower on average for the patients with missing versus complete data, but there was considerable uncertainty in

Expert knowledge elicitation using computer simulation: the organization of frail elderly case management as an illustration.

PubMed

Chiêm, Jean-Christophe; Van Durme, Thérèse; Vandendorpe, Florence; Schmitz, Olivier; Speybroeck, Niko; Cès, Sophie; Macq, Jean

2014-08-01

Various elderly case management projects have been implemented in Belgium. This type of long-term health care intervention involves contextual factors and human interactions. These underlying complex mechanisms can be usefully informed with field experts' knowledge, which are hard to make explicit. However, computer simulation has been suggested as one possible method of overcoming the difficulty of articulating such elicited qualitative views. A simulation model of case management was designed using an agent-based methodology, based on the initial qualitative research material. Variables and rules of interaction were formulated into a simple conceptual framework. This model has been implemented and was used as a support for a structured discussion with experts in case management. The rigorous formulation provided by the agent-based methodology clarified the descriptions of the interventions and the problems encountered regarding: the diverse network topologies of health care actors in the project; the adaptation time required by the intervention; the communication between the health care actors; the institutional context; the organization of the care; and the role of the case manager and his or hers personal ability to interpret the informal demands of the frail older person. The simulation model should be seen primarily as a tool for thinking and learning. A number of insights were gained as part of a valuable cognitive process. Computer simulation supporting field experts' elicitation can lead to better-informed decisions in the organization of complex health care interventions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Expert nurses' clinical reasoning under uncertainty: representation, structure, and process.

PubMed Central

Fonteyn, M. E.; Grobe, S. J.

1992-01-01

How do expert nurses reason when planning care and making clinical decisions for a patient who is at risk, and whose outcome is uncertain? In this study, a case study involving a critically ill elderly woman whose condition deteriorated over time, was presented in segments to ten expert critical care nurses. Think aloud method was used to elicit knowledge from these experts to provide conceptual information about their knowledge and to reveal their reasoning processes and problem-solving strategies. The verbatim transcripts were then analyzed using a systematic three-step method that makes analysis easier and adds creditability to study findings by providing a means of retracing and explaining analysis results. Findings revealed information about how patient problems were represented during reasoning, the manner in which experts subjects structured their plan of care, and the reasoning processes and heuristics they used to formulate solutions for resolving the patient's problems and preventing deterioration in the patient's condition. PMID:1482907

Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

1990-01-01

Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limitedmore » in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.« less

Flammable gas double shell tank expert elicitation presentations (Part A and Part B)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bratzel, D.R.

1998-04-17

This document is a compilation of presentation packages and white papers for the Flammable Gas Double Shell Tank Expert Elicitation Workshop {number_sign}2. For each presentation given by the different authors, a separate section was developed. The purpose for issuing these workshop presentation packages and white papers as a supporting document is to provide traceability and a Quality Assurance record for future reference to these packages.

Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, Rob; Aspinall, Willy; Odbert, Henry; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-08-01

Scour (localised erosion) during flood events is one of the most significant threats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the cause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of the risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many infrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after mitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to quantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of scour and the assessment of the scour risk. This paper summarises findings from an international expert workshop on bridge scour risk assessment that explores uncertainties about the vulnerability of bridges to scour. Two specialised structured elicitation methods were applied to explore the factors that experts in the field consider important when assessing scour risk and to derive pooled expert judgements of bridge failure probabilities that are conditional on a range of assumed scenarios describing flood event severity, bridge and watercourse types and risk mitigation protocols. The experts' judgements broadly align with industry good practice, but indicate significant uncertainty about quantitative estimates of bridge failure probabilities, reflecting the difficulty in assessing the residual risk of failure. The data and findings presented here could provide a useful context for the development of generic scour fragility models and their associated uncertainties.

A Step-Wise Approach to Elicit Triangular Distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenberg, Marc W.

2013-01-01

Adapt/combine known methods to demonstrate an expert judgment elicitation process that: 1.Models expert's inputs as a triangular distribution, 2.Incorporates techniques to account for expert bias and 3.Is structured in a way to help justify expert's inputs. This paper will show one way of "extracting" expert opinion for estimating purposes. Nevertheless, as with most subjective methods, there are many ways to do this.

Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

2004-01-01

A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

Assessing the probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in commercial Australian poultry operations using an expert opinion elicitation.

PubMed

Singh, Mini; Toribio, Jenny-Ann; Scott, Angela Bullanday; Groves, Peter; Barnes, Belinda; Glass, Kathryn; Moloney, Barbara; Black, Amanda; Hernandez-Jover, Marta

2018-01-01

The objective of this study was to elicit experts' opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farms. Shared personnel, equipment and aerosol dispersion were the most likely pathways of shed to shed spread of the virus. For LPAI and HPAI spread from farm to farm, shared pick-up trucks for broiler and shared egg trays and egg pallets for layer farms were considered the most likely pathways. Findings from this study provide an insight on most influential practices on the introduction and spread of AI virus among commercial poultry farms in Australia, as elicited from opinions of experts. These findings will be used to support parameterization of a modelling study assessing the risk of AI introduction and spread among commercial poultry farms in Australia.

A sunny future: expert elicitation of China's solar photovoltaic technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, Long T.; Branstetter, Lee; Azevedo, Inês L.

2018-03-01

China has emerged as the global manufacturing center for solar photovoltaic (PV) products. Chinese firms have entered all stages of the supply chain, producing most of the installed solar modules around the world. Meanwhile, production costs are at record lows. The decisions that Chinese solar producers make today will influence the path for the solar industry and its role towards de-carbonization of global energy systems in the years to come. However, to date, there have been no assessments of the future costs and efficiency of solar PV systems produced by the Chinese PV industry. We perform an expert elicitation to assess the technological and non-technological factors that led to the success of China’s silicon PV industry as well as likely future costs and performance. Experts evaluated key metrics such as efficiency, costs, and commercial viability of 17 silicon and non-silicon solar PV technologies by 2030. Silicon-based technologies will continue to be the mainstream product for large-scale electricity generation application in the near future, with module efficiency reaching as high as 23% and production cost as low as 0.24/W. The levelized cost of electricity for solar will be around 34/MWh, allowing solar PV to be competitive with traditional energy resources like coal. The industry’s future developments may be affected by overinvestment, overcapacity, and singular short-term focus.

Probability Elicitation Under Severe Time Pressure: A Rank-Based Method.

PubMed

Jaspersen, Johannes G; Montibeller, Gilberto

2015-07-01

Probability elicitation protocols are used to assess and incorporate subjective probabilities in risk and decision analysis. While most of these protocols use methods that have focused on the precision of the elicited probabilities, the speed of the elicitation process has often been neglected. However, speed is also important, particularly when experts need to examine a large number of events on a recurrent basis. Furthermore, most existing elicitation methods are numerical in nature, but there are various reasons why an expert would refuse to give such precise ratio-scale estimates, even if highly numerate. This may occur, for instance, when there is lack of sufficient hard evidence, when assessing very uncertain events (such as emergent threats), or when dealing with politicized topics (such as terrorism or disease outbreaks). In this article, we adopt an ordinal ranking approach from multicriteria decision analysis to provide a fast and nonnumerical probability elicitation process. Probabilities are subsequently approximated from the ranking by an algorithm based on the principle of maximum entropy, a rule compatible with the ordinal information provided by the expert. The method can elicit probabilities for a wide range of different event types, including new ways of eliciting probabilities for stochastically independent events and low-probability events. We use a Monte Carlo simulation to test the accuracy of the approximated probabilities and try the method in practice, applying it to a real-world risk analysis recently conducted for DEFRA (the U.K. Department for the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs): the prioritization of animal health threats. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Assessing the probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in commercial Australian poultry operations using an expert opinion elicitation

PubMed Central

Toribio, Jenny-Ann; Scott, Angela Bullanday; Groves, Peter; Barnes, Belinda; Glass, Kathryn; Moloney, Barbara; Black, Amanda; Hernandez-Jover, Marta

2018-01-01

The objective of this study was to elicit experts’ opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farms. Shared personnel, equipment and aerosol dispersion were the most likely pathways of shed to shed spread of the virus. For LPAI and HPAI spread from farm to farm, shared pick-up trucks for broiler and shared egg trays and egg pallets for layer farms were considered the most likely pathways. Findings from this study provide an insight on most influential practices on the introduction and spread of AI virus among commercial poultry farms in Australia, as elicited from opinions of experts. These findings will be used to support parameterization of a modelling study assessing the risk of AI introduction and spread among commercial poultry farms in Australia. PMID:29494696

Attribution of global foodborne disease to specific foods: Findings from a World Health Organization structured expert elicitation.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Sandra; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Aspinall, Willy; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie; Angulo, Frederick; Gibb, Herman; Kirk, Martyn; Lake, Robin; Speybroeck, Niko; Torgerson, Paul; Hald, Tine

2017-01-01

Recently the World Health Organization, Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) estimated that 31 foodborne diseases (FBDs) resulted in over 600 million illnesses and 420,000 deaths worldwide in 2010. Knowing the relative role importance of different foods as exposure routes for key hazards is critical to preventing illness. This study reports the findings of a structured expert elicitation providing globally comparable food source attribution estimates for 11 major FBDs in each of 14 world subregions. We used Cooke's Classical Model to elicit and aggregate judgments of 73 international experts. Judgments were elicited from each expert individually and aggregated using both equal and performance weights. Performance weighted results are reported as they increased the informativeness of estimates, while retaining accuracy. We report measures of central tendency and uncertainty bounds on food source attribution estimate. For some pathogens we see relatively consistent food source attribution estimates across subregions of the world; for others there is substantial regional variation. For example, for non-typhoidal salmonellosis, pork was of minor importance compared to eggs and poultry meat in the American and African subregions, whereas in the European and Western Pacific subregions the importance of these three food sources were quite similar. Our regional results broadly agree with estimates from earlier European and North American food source attribution research. As in prior food source attribution research, we find relatively wide uncertainty bounds around our median estimates. We present the first worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific foodborne diseases attributable to specific food exposure routes. While we find substantial uncertainty around central tendency estimates, we believe these estimates provide the best currently available basis on which to link FBDs and specific foods in many parts of the world, providing guidance

Attribution of global foodborne disease to specific foods: Findings from a World Health Organization structured expert elicitation

PubMed Central

Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Aspinall, Willy; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie; Angulo, Frederick; Gibb, Herman; Kirk, Martyn; Lake, Robin; Speybroeck, Niko; Torgerson, Paul; Hald, Tine

2017-01-01

Background Recently the World Health Organization, Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) estimated that 31 foodborne diseases (FBDs) resulted in over 600 million illnesses and 420,000 deaths worldwide in 2010. Knowing the relative role importance of different foods as exposure routes for key hazards is critical to preventing illness. This study reports the findings of a structured expert elicitation providing globally comparable food source attribution estimates for 11 major FBDs in each of 14 world subregions. Methods and findings We used Cooke’s Classical Model to elicit and aggregate judgments of 73 international experts. Judgments were elicited from each expert individually and aggregated using both equal and performance weights. Performance weighted results are reported as they increased the informativeness of estimates, while retaining accuracy. We report measures of central tendency and uncertainty bounds on food source attribution estimate. For some pathogens we see relatively consistent food source attribution estimates across subregions of the world; for others there is substantial regional variation. For example, for non-typhoidal salmonellosis, pork was of minor importance compared to eggs and poultry meat in the American and African subregions, whereas in the European and Western Pacific subregions the importance of these three food sources were quite similar. Our regional results broadly agree with estimates from earlier European and North American food source attribution research. As in prior food source attribution research, we find relatively wide uncertainty bounds around our median estimates. Conclusions We present the first worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific foodborne diseases attributable to specific food exposure routes. While we find substantial uncertainty around central tendency estimates, we believe these estimates provide the best currently available basis on which to link FBDs and specific foods in

Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry using expert elicitation.

PubMed

Renjith, V R; Madhu, G; Nayagam, V Lakshmana Gomathi; Bhasi, A B

2010-11-15

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identification and quantification of these hazards related to chemical industries. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an established technique in hazard identification. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. This paper outlines the estimation of the probability of release of chlorine from storage and filling facility of chlor-alkali industry using FTA. An attempt has also been made to arrive at the probability of chlorine release using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic technique for Indian conditions. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor involved in expert elicitation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electrophysiological correlates of aesthetic processing of webpages: a comparison of experts and laypersons

PubMed Central

Hösker, Thomas M.; Hirschfeld, Gerrit; Thielsch, Meinald T.

2017-01-01

We investigated whether design experts or laypersons evaluate webpages differently. Twenty participants, 10 experts and 10 laypersons, judged the aesthetic value of a webpage in an EEG-experiment. Screenshots of 150 webpages, judged as aesthetic or as unaesthetic by another 136 participants, served as stimulus material. Behaviorally, experts and laypersons evaluated unaesthetic webpages similarly, but they differed in their evaluation of aesthetic ones: experts evaluated aesthetic webpages as unaesthetic more often than laypersons did. The ERP-data show main effects of level of expertise and of aesthetic value only. There was no interaction of expertise and aesthetics. In a time-window of 110–130 ms after stimulus onset, aesthetic webpages elicited a more negative EEG-amplitude than unaesthetic webpages. In the same time window, experts had more negative EEG-amplitudes than laypersons. This patterning of results continued until a time window of 600–800 ms in which group and aesthetic differences diminished. An interaction of perceiver characteristics and object properties that several interactionist theories postulate was absent in the EEG-data. Experts seem to process the stimuli in a more thorough manner than laypersons. The early activation differences between aesthetic and unaesthetic webpages is in contrast with some theories of aesthetic processing and has not been reported before. PMID:28603676

Electrophysiological correlates of aesthetic processing of webpages: a comparison of experts and laypersons.

PubMed

Bölte, Jens; Hösker, Thomas M; Hirschfeld, Gerrit; Thielsch, Meinald T

2017-01-01

We investigated whether design experts or laypersons evaluate webpages differently. Twenty participants, 10 experts and 10 laypersons, judged the aesthetic value of a webpage in an EEG-experiment. Screenshots of 150 webpages, judged as aesthetic or as unaesthetic by another 136 participants, served as stimulus material. Behaviorally, experts and laypersons evaluated unaesthetic webpages similarly, but they differed in their evaluation of aesthetic ones: experts evaluated aesthetic webpages as unaesthetic more often than laypersons did. The ERP-data show main effects of level of expertise and of aesthetic value only. There was no interaction of expertise and aesthetics. In a time-window of 110-130 ms after stimulus onset, aesthetic webpages elicited a more negative EEG-amplitude than unaesthetic webpages. In the same time window, experts had more negative EEG-amplitudes than laypersons. This patterning of results continued until a time window of 600-800 ms in which group and aesthetic differences diminished. An interaction of perceiver characteristics and object properties that several interactionist theories postulate was absent in the EEG-data. Experts seem to process the stimuli in a more thorough manner than laypersons. The early activation differences between aesthetic and unaesthetic webpages is in contrast with some theories of aesthetic processing and has not been reported before.

Estimating distribution and connectivity of recolonizing American marten in the northeastern United States using expert elicitation techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aylward, C.M.; Murdoch, J.D.; Donovan, Therese M.; Kilpatrick, C.W.; Bernier, C.; Katz, J.

2018-01-01

The American marten Martes americana is a species of conservation concern in the northeastern United States due to widespread declines from over‐harvesting and habitat loss. Little information exists on current marten distribution and how landscape characteristics shape patterns of occupancy across the region, which could help develop effective recovery strategies. The rarity of marten and lack of historical distribution records are also problematic for region‐wide conservation planning. Expert opinion can provide a source of information for estimating species–landscape relationships and is especially useful when empirical data are sparse. We created a survey to elicit expert opinion and build a model that describes marten occupancy in the northeastern United States as a function of landscape conditions. We elicited opinions from 18 marten experts that included wildlife managers, trappers and researchers. Each expert estimated occupancy probability at 30 sites in their geographic region of expertise. We, then, fit the response data with a set of 58 models that incorporated the effects of covariates related to forest characteristics, climate, anthropogenic impacts and competition at two spatial scales (1.5 and 5 km radii), and used model selection techniques to determine the best model in the set. Three top models had strong empirical support, which we model averaged based on AIC weights. The final model included effects of five covariates at the 5‐km scale: percent canopy cover (positive), percent spruce‐fir land cover (positive), winter temperature (negative), elevation (positive) and road density (negative). A receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that the model performed well based on recent occurrence records. We mapped distribution across the region and used circuit theory to estimate movement corridors between isolated core populations. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of expert‐opinion data at modeling occupancy for rare

We’re only in it for the knowledge? A problem solving turn in environment and health expert elicitation

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The FP6 EU HENVINET project aimed at synthesizing the scientific information available on a number of topics of high relevance to policy makers in environment and health. The goal of the current paper is to reflect on the methodology that was used in the project, in view of exploring the usefulness of this and similar methodologies to the policy process. The topics investigated included health impacts of the brominated flame retardants decabrominated diphenylether (decaBDE) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), phthalates highlighting di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP), the pesticide chlorpyrifos (CPF), nanoparticles, the impacts of climate change on asthma and other respiratory disorders, and the influence of environment health stressors on cancer induction. Methods Initially the focus was on identifying knowledge gaps in the state of the art in scientific knowledge. Literature reviews covered all elements that compose the causal chain of the different environmental health issues from emissions to exposures, to effects and to health impacts. Through expert elicitation, knowledge gaps were highlighted by assessing expert confidence using calibrated confidence scales. During this work a complementary focus to that on knowledge gaps was developed through interdisciplinary reflections. By extending the scope of the endeavour from only a scientific perspective, to also include the more problem solving oriented policy perspective, the question of which kind of policy action experts consider justifiable was addressed. This was addressed by means of a questionnaire. In an expert workshop the results of both questionnaires were discussed as a basis for policy briefs. Results The expert elicitation, the application of the calibrated confidence levels and the problem solving approach were all experienced as being quite challenging for the experts involved, as these approaches did not easily relate to mainstream environment and health scientific practices. Even so, most

Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Perkins, David M.; Aspinall, Willy P.; Kiremidjian, Anne S.

2014-01-01

The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke's approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke's approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments couple with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The performance-based scoring system reflects the combined measure of an expert's informativeness about variables in the problem are under consideration, and their ability to enumerate, in a statistically accurate way through expressing their true beliefs, the quantitative uncertainties associated with their assessments. We summarize the findings of an expert elicitation workshop in which a dozen earthquake-engineering professionals from around the world were engaged to estimate seismic collapse fragility for generic construction types. Development of seismic collapse fragility-functions was accomplished by combining their judgments using weights derived from Cooke's method. Although substantial effort was needed to elicit the inputs of these experts successfully, we anticipate that the elicitation strategy described here will gain momentum in a wide variety of earthquake seismology and engineering hazard and risk analyses where physical model and data limitations are inherent and objective professional judgment can fill gaps.

Psychology of developing and designing expert systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, B.; MacGregor, D.

This paper discusses psychological problems relevant to developing and designing expert systems. With respect to the former, the psychological literature suggests that several cognitive biases may affect the elicitation of a valid knowledge base from the expert. The literature also suggests that common expert system inference engines may be quite inconsistent with reasoning heuristics employed by experts. With respect to expert system user interfaces, care should be taken when eliciting uncertainty estimates from users, presenting system conclusions, and ordering questions.

Toward the integration of expert knowledge and instrumental data to control food processes: application to Camembert-type cheese ripening.

PubMed

Sicard, M; Perrot, N; Leclercq-Perlat, M-N; Baudrit, C; Corrieu, G

2011-01-01

Modeling the cheese ripening process remains a challenge because of its complexity. We still lack the knowledge necessary to understand the interactions that take place at different levels of scale during the process. However, information may be gathered from expert knowledge. Combining this expertise with knowledge extracted from experimental databases may allow a better understanding of the entire ripening process. The aim of this study was to elicit expert knowledge and to check its validity to assess the evolution of organoleptic quality during a dynamic food process: Camembert cheese ripening. Experiments on a pilot scale were carried out at different temperatures and relative humidities to obtain contrasting ripening kinetics. During these experiments, macroscopic evolution was evaluated from an expert's point of view and instrumental measurements were carried out to simultaneously monitor microbiological, physicochemical, and biochemical kinetics. A correlation of 76% was established between the microbiological, physicochemical, and biochemical data and the sensory phases measured according to expert knowledge, highlighting the validity of the experts' measurements. In the future, it is hoped that this expert knowledge may be integrated into food process models to build better decision-aid systems that will make it possible to preserve organoleptic qualities by linking them to other phenomena at the microscopic level. Copyright © 2011 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Elicitation of neurological knowledge with argument-based machine learning.

PubMed

Groznik, Vida; Guid, Matej; Sadikov, Aleksander; Možina, Martin; Georgiev, Dejan; Kragelj, Veronika; Ribarič, Samo; Pirtošek, Zvezdan; Bratko, Ivan

2013-02-01

The paper describes the use of expert's knowledge in practice and the efficiency of a recently developed technique called argument-based machine learning (ABML) in the knowledge elicitation process. We are developing a neurological decision support system to help the neurologists differentiate between three types of tremors: Parkinsonian, essential, and mixed tremor (comorbidity). The system is intended to act as a second opinion for the neurologists, and most importantly to help them reduce the number of patients in the "gray area" that require a very costly further examination (DaTSCAN). We strive to elicit comprehensible and medically meaningful knowledge in such a way that it does not come at the cost of diagnostic accuracy. To alleviate the difficult problem of knowledge elicitation from data and domain experts, we used ABML. ABML guides the expert to explain critical special cases which cannot be handled automatically by machine learning. This very efficiently reduces the expert's workload, and combines expert's knowledge with learning data. 122 patients were enrolled into the study. The classification accuracy of the final model was 91%. Equally important, the initial and the final models were also evaluated for their comprehensibility by the neurologists. All 13 rules of the final model were deemed as appropriate to be able to support its decisions with good explanations. The paper demonstrates ABML's advantage in combining machine learning and expert knowledge. The accuracy of the system is very high with respect to the current state-of-the-art in clinical practice, and the system's knowledge base is assessed to be very consistent from a medical point of view. This opens up the possibility to use the system also as a teaching tool. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expert agreements and disagreements on induced seismicity by Enhanced Geothermal Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trutnevyte, E.; Azevedo, I. L.

2016-12-01

Enhanced or Engineered Geothermal Systems (EGS) are at an early stage of development and only a handful of projects exist worldwide. In face of limited empirical evidence on EGS induced seismicity, expert elicitation provides a complementary view to quantitative assessments and basic science. We present the results of an international expert elicitation exercise with 14 experts from 6 countries. The elicitation aimed at evaluating induced seismicity hazard and risk for EGS and characterizing associated uncertainty. The state-of-the-art expert elicitation method was used: it combines technical analysis with behavioral science-informed elicitation of expert judgement in order to minimize subjectivity. The experts assessed a harmonized scenario of an EGS plant, its operational characteristics, geological context, and surrounding buildings and infrastructures. The experts provided quantitative estimates of exceedance probabilities of induced M>=3 and M>=5, maximum magnitudes that could be observed, and made judgements on economic loss, injuries, and fatalities in the case of M=3 and M=5. The experts also rated the importance of factors that influence induced seismicity hazard and risk (e.g. reservoir depth, injected volumes, exposed building stock etc.) and the potential uncertainty reductions through future research. We present the findings of this elicitation and highlight the points of expert agreements and disagreements.

Parallel processing and expert systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, Sonie; Yan, Jerry C.

1991-01-01

Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 1990s cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient implementation of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real-time demands are met for larger systems. Speedup via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial laboratories in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems is surveyed. The survey discusses multiprocessors for expert systems, parallel languages for symbolic computations, and mapping expert systems to multiprocessors. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. The main reasons are (1) the body of knowledge applicable in any given situation and the amount of computation executed by each rule firing are small, (2) dividing the problem solving process into relatively independent partitions is difficult, and (3) implementation decisions that enable expert systems to be incrementally refined hamper compile-time optimization. In order to obtain greater speedups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

Eliciting climate experts' knowledge to address model uncertainties in regional climate projections: a case study of Guanacaste, Northwest Costa Rica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.; Steyn, D. G.

2014-12-01

Global general circulation models typically cannot provide the detailed and accurate regional climate information required by stakeholders for climate adaptation efforts, given their limited capacity to resolve the regional topography and changes in local sea surface temperature, wind and circulation patterns. The study region in Northwest Costa Rica has a tropical wet-dry climate with a double-peak wet season. During the dry season the central Costa Rican mountains prevent tropical Atlantic moisture from reaching the region. Most of the annual precipitation is received following the northward migration of the ITCZ in May that allows the region to benefit from moist southwesterly flow from the tropical Pacific. The wet season begins with a short period of "early rains" and is interrupted by the mid-summer drought associated with the intensification and westward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high in late June. Model projections for the 21st century indicate a lengthening and intensification of the mid-summer drought and a weakening of the early rains on which current crop cultivation practices rely. We developed an expert elicitation to systematically address uncertainties in the available model projections of changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Our approach extends an elicitation approach developed previously at Carnegie Mellon University. Experts in the climate of the study region or Central American climate were asked to assess the mechanisms driving precipitation during each part of the season, uncertainties regarding these mechanisms, expected changes in each mechanism in a warming climate, and the capacity of current models to reproduce these processes. To avoid overconfidence bias, a step-by-step procedure was followed to estimate changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation during each part of the season. The questions drew upon interviews conducted with the regions stakeholders to assess their climate information needs. This

Expert elicitation as a means to attribute 28 enteric pathogens to foodborne, waterborne, animal contact, and person-to-person transmission routes in Canada.

PubMed

Butler, Ainslie J; Thomas, M Kate; Pintar, Katarina D M

2015-04-01

Enteric illness contributes to a significant burden of illness in Canada and globally. Understanding its sources is a critical step in identifying and preventing health risks. Expert elicitation is a powerful tool, used previously, to obtain information about enteric illness source attribution where information is difficult or expensive to obtain. Thirty-one experts estimated transmission of 28 pathogens via major transmission routes (foodborne, waterborne, animal contact, person-to-person, and other) at the point of consumption. The elicitation consisted of a (snowball) recruitment phase; administration of a pre-survey to collect background information, an introductory webinar, an elicitation survey, a 1-day discussion, survey readministration, and a feedback exercise, and surveys were administered online. Experts were prompted to quantify changes in contamination at the point of entry into the kitchen versus point of consumption. Estimates were combined via triangular probability distributions, and medians and 90% credible-interval estimates were produced. Transmission was attributed primarily to food for Bacillus cereus, Clostridium perfringens, Cyclospora cayetanensis, Trichinella spp., all three Vibrio spp. categories explored, and Yersinia enterocolitica. Multisource pathogens (e.g., transmitted commonly through both water and food) such as Campylobacter spp., four Escherichia coli categories, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., and Staphylococcus aureus were also estimated as mostly foodborne. Water was the primary pathway for Giardia spp. and Cryptosporidium spp., and person-to-person transmission dominated for six enteric viruses and Shigella spp. Consideration of the point of attribution highlighted the importance of food handling and cross-contamination in the transmission pathway. This study provides source attribution estimates of enteric illness for Canada, considering all possible transmission routes. Further research is necessary to improve our

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon Monica; Reveley, Mary S.; Luxhoj, James T.

2012-01-01

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Parallel processing and expert systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yan, Jerry C.; Lau, Sonie

1991-01-01

Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 90's cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient use of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real time demands are met for large expert systems. Speed-up via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial labs in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems was surveyed. The survey is divided into three major sections: (1) multiprocessors for parallel expert systems; (2) parallel languages for symbolic computations; and (3) measurements of parallelism of expert system. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. In order to obtain greater speed-ups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

Signal Processing Expert Code (SPEC)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ames, H.S.

1985-12-01

The purpose of this paper is to describe a prototype expert system called SPEC which was developed to demonstrate the utility of providing an intelligent interface for users of SIG, a general purpose signal processing code. The expert system is written in NIL, runs on a VAX 11/750 and consists of a backward chaining inference engine and an English-like parser. The inference engine uses knowledge encoded as rules about the formats of SIG commands and about how to perform frequency analyses using SIG. The system demonstrated that expert system can be used to control existing codes.

Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Wald, D.J.; Perkins, D.; Aspinall, W.P.; Kiremidjian, Anne S.; Deodatis, George; Ellingwood, Bruce R.; Frangopol, Dan M.

2014-01-01

The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke’s approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke’s approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments coupled with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The performance-based scoring system reflects the combined measure of an expert’s informativeness about variables in the problem area under consideration, and their ability to enumerate, in a statistically accurate way through expressing their true beliefs, the quantitative uncertainties associated with their assessments. We summarize the findings of an expert elicitation workshop in which a dozen earthquake-engineering professionals from around the world were engaged to estimate seismic collapse fragility for generic construction types. Development of seismic collapse fragility functions was accomplished by combining their judgments using weights derived from Cooke’s method. Although substantial effort was needed to elicit the inputs of these experts successfully, we anticipate that the elicitation strategy described here will gain momentum in a wide variety of earthquake seismology and engineering hazard and risk analyses where physical model and data limitations are inherent and objective professional judgment can fill gaps.

Using process elicitation and validation to understand and improve chemotherapy ordering and delivery.

PubMed

Mertens, Wilson C; Christov, Stefan C; Avrunin, George S; Clarke, Lori A; Osterweil, Leon J; Cassells, Lucinda J; Marquard, Jenna L

2012-11-01

Chemotherapy ordering and administration, in which errors have potentially severe consequences, was quantitatively and qualitatively evaluated by employing process formalism (or formal process definition), a technique derived from software engineering, to elicit and rigorously describe the process, after which validation techniques were applied to confirm the accuracy of the described process. The chemotherapy ordering and administration process, including exceptional situations and individuals' recognition of and responses to those situations, was elicited through informal, unstructured interviews with members of an interdisciplinary team. The process description (or process definition), written in a notation developed for software quality assessment purposes, guided process validation (which consisted of direct observations and semistructured interviews to confirm the elicited details for the treatment plan portion of the process). The overall process definition yielded 467 steps; 207 steps (44%) were dedicated to handling 59 exceptional situations. Validation yielded 82 unique process events (35 new expected but not yet described steps, 16 new exceptional situations, and 31 new steps in response to exceptional situations). Process participants actively altered the process as ambiguities and conflicts were discovered by the elicitation and validation components of the study. Chemotherapy error rates declined significantly during and after the project, which was conducted from October 2007 through August 2008. Each elicitation method and the subsequent validation discussions contributed uniquely to understanding the chemotherapy treatment plan review process, supporting rapid adoption of changes, improved communication regarding the process, and ensuing error reduction.

An Expert Elicitation of the Proliferation Resistance of Using Small Modular Reactors (SMR) for the Expansion of Civilian Nuclear Systems.

PubMed

Siegel, Jonas; Gilmore, Elisabeth A; Gallagher, Nancy; Fetter, Steve

2018-02-01

To facilitate the use of nuclear energy globally, small modular reactors (SMRs) may represent a viable alternative or complement to large reactor designs. One potential benefit is that SMRs could allow for more proliferation resistant designs, manufacturing arrangements, and fuel-cycle practices at widespread deployment. However, there is limited work evaluating the proliferation resistance of SMRs, and existing proliferation assessment approaches are not well suited for these novel arrangements. Here, we conduct an expert elicitation of the relative proliferation resistance of scenarios for future nuclear energy deployment driven by Generation III+ light-water reactors, fast reactors, or SMRs. Specifically, we construct the scenarios to investigate relevant technical and institutional features that are postulated to enhance the proliferation resistance of SMRs. The experts do not consistently judge the scenario with SMRs to have greater overall proliferation resistance than scenarios that rely on conventional nuclear energy generation options. Further, the experts disagreed on whether incorporating a long-lifetime sealed core into an SMR design would strengthen or weaken proliferation resistance. However, regardless of the type of reactor, the experts judged that proliferation resistance would be enhanced by improving international safeguards and operating several multinational fuel-cycle facilities rather than supporting many more national facilities. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA), which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK) to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1) Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA), and 2) Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR). In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1) Data collection and data preparation; 2) acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK) and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB); 3) PKB-guided analysis; 4) support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited); 5) incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6) post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering), applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This paper presents Eb

Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support.

PubMed

Gibert, Karina; García-Alonso, Carlos; Salvador-Carulla, Luis

2010-09-30

Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA), which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK) to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1) Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA), and 2) Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR). In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1) Data collection and data preparation; 2) acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK) and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB); 3) PKB-guided analysis; 4) support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited); 5) incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6) post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering), applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. This paper presents EbCA and shows the convenience of

Using Expert Elicitation to Estimate the Impacts of Plastic Pollution on Marine Wildlife

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallos, N. J.; Wilcox, C.; Leonard, G. H.; Rodriquez, A. G.; Hardesty, B. D.

2016-02-01

With the rapid increase in global plastics production and the resulting large volume of litter that enters the marine environment, determining the consequences of this debris on marine fauna and ocean health has now become a critical environmental priority, particularly for threatened and endangered species. However, there are limited data about the impacts on debris on marine species from which to draw conclusions about the population consequences of anthropogenic debris. To address this knowledge gap, information was elicited from experts on the ecological threat of entanglement, ingestion and chemical contamination for three major marine taxa: seabirds, sea turtles and marine mammals. The threat assessment focused on the most common types of litter that are found along the world's coastlines, based on data gathered during three decades of international coastal clean-up efforts. Fishing related gear, balloons and plastic bags were estimated to pose the greatest entanglement risk to marine fauna. In contrast, experts identified a broader suite of items of concern for ingestion, with plastic bags and plastic utensils ranked as the greatest threats. Entanglement and ingestion affected a similar range of taxa, although entanglement was slightly worse as it is more likely to be lethal. Contamination was scored the lowest in terms of its impact, affecting a smaller portion of the taxa and being rated as having solely non-lethal impacts. Research designed to better understand and quantify the impacts of chemical contamination on marine fauna at individual, population and species levels should be a priority for conservation biologists. This work points towards a number of opportunities for both policy-based and consumer-driven changes in plastics use that could have demonstrable affects for a range of taxa that are ecologically important and serve as indicators of marine ecosystem health. Based on threat rankings, entanglement and ingestion should be a similar priority

Holistic processing of fingerprints by expert forensic examiners.

PubMed

Vogelsang, Macgregor D; Palmeri, Thomas J; Busey, Thomas A

2017-01-01

Holistic processing is often characterized as a process by which objects are perceived as a whole rather than a compilation of individual features. This mechanism may play an important role in the development of perceptual expertise because it allows for rapid integration across image regions. The present work explores whether holistic processing is present in latent fingerprint examiners, who compare fingerprints collected from crime scenes against a set of standards taken from a suspect. We adapted a composite task widely used in the face recognition and perceptual expertise literatures, in which participants were asked to match only a particular half of a fingerprint with a previous image while ignoring the other half. We tested both experts and novices, using both upright and inverted fingerprints. For upright fingerprints, we found weak evidence for holistic processing, but with no differences between experts and novices with respect to holistic processing. For inverted fingerprints, we found stronger evidence of holistic processing, with weak evidence for differences between experts and novices. These relatively weak holistic processing effects contrast with robust evidence for holistic processing with faces and with objects in other domains of perceptual expertise. The data constrain models of holistic processing by demonstrating that latent fingerprint experts and novices may not substantively differ in terms of the amount of holistic processing and that inverted stimuli actually produced more evidence for holistic processing than upright stimuli. Important differences between the present fingerprint stimuli and those in the literature include the lack of verbal labels for experts and the absence of strong vertical asymmetries, both of which might contribute to stronger holistic processing signatures in other stimulus domains.

World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation

PubMed Central

Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie H.; Gibb, Herman J.; Torgerson, Paul R.; Kirk, Martyn D.; Angulo, Fred J.; Lake, Robin J.; Speybroeck, Niko; Hoffmann, Sandra

2016-01-01

Background The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food. Methods and Findings We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke’s Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific ‘seed’ questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke’s Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the ‘target’ questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts

World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation.

PubMed

Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie H; Gibb, Herman J; Torgerson, Paul R; Kirk, Martyn D; Angulo, Fred J; Lake, Robin J; Speybroeck, Niko; Hoffmann, Sandra

2016-01-01

The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food. We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke's Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific 'seed' questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke's Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the 'target' questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts providing estimates for one or more subregions

What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, C. E.

2008-12-01

Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

Expert Elicitation Provides a Rapid Alternative to Formal Case-Control Study of an H7N9 Avian Influenza Outbreak in the United States.

PubMed

Gustafson, L; Jones, R; Dufour-Zavala, L; Jensen, E; Malinak, C; McCarter, S; Opengart, K; Quinn, J; Slater, T; Delgado, A; Talbert, M; Garber, L; Remmenga, M; Smeltzer, M

2018-06-01

An expert elicitation was staged to rapidly decipher plausible routes and risks of pathogen transmission in the 2017 H7N9 avian influenza (AI) outbreak in the four-state region of Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and Kentucky. The process included the identification of risk factors found in a preponderance of commercial broiler breeder case farms over matched controls and an opinion-based weighting of risks and mitigations perceived influential to this outbreak. Although the two highly pathogenic AI case farms had general location and company ownership in common, obvious connections were lacking for the remainder of H7N9-infected (all low pathogenicity) commercial farms. Expert elicitation of differences between known cases and controls suggested a key role for environmental rather than lateral (business network) pathways in the distribution of low pathogenicity AI across commercial broiler breeder operations. Factors with greatest strength as predictors of disease, whether or not they were causal, included mesopredator or rodent incursions, enclosure defects, and habitat disturbance that might attract wildlife to the farm (e.g., feed spills and vacating of neighboring properties). Business affiliations that may have facilitated farm-to-farm transfer, in contrast, were limited. Biosecurity standards varied across this study group but were no more or less stringent among cases over controls. However, results from a parallel hypothetical scenario staged to address field data gaps suggest that uniformity and consistency in the implementation of biosecurity practices may impact risk of disease introduction. Importantly, this study was conducted within a few weeks and with little disruption to emergency response activities. As such, the approach offers an alternative model for interim field investigation of new or emerging high-consequence diseases with immediate decision support needs.

Management of uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts - Applications to sea-level rise and to CO2 storage operations risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manceau, Jean-Charles; Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy; Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Lary Louis, de; Guénan Thomas, Le; Ken, Hnottavange-Telleen

2017-04-01

In a context of high degree of uncertainty, when very few data are available, experts are commonly requested to provide their opinions on input parameters of risk assessment models. Not only might each expert express a certain degree of uncertainty on his/her own statements, but the set of information collected from the pool of experts introduces an additional level of uncertainty. It is indeed very unlikely that all experts agree on exactly the same data, especially regarding parameters needed for natural risk assessments. In some cases, their opinions may differ only slightly (e.g. the most plausible value for a parameter is similar for different experts, and they only disagree on the level of uncertainties that taint the said value) while on other cases they may express incompatible opinions for a same parameter. Dealing with these different kinds of uncertainties remains a challenge for assessing geological hazards or/and risks. Extra-probabilistic approaches (such as the Dempster-Shafer theory or the possibility theory) have shown to offer promising solutions for representing parameters on which the knowledge is limited. It is the case for instance when the available information prevents an expert from identifying a unique probability law to picture the total uncertainty. Moreover, such approaches are known to be particularly flexible when it comes to aggregating several and potentially conflicting opinions. We therefore propose to discuss the opportunity of applying these new theories for managing the uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts, by a comparison with the application of more classical probability approaches. The discussion is based on two different examples. The first example deals with the estimation of the injected CO2 plume extent in a reservoir in the context of CO2 geological storage. This estimation requires information on the effective porosity of the reservoir, which has been estimated by 14 different experts. The Dempster

Which uncertainty? Using expert elicitation and expected value of information to design an adaptive program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, Michael C.; Converse, Sarah J.; Lyons, James E.

2011-01-01

Natural resource management is plagued with uncertainty of many kinds, but not all uncertainties are equally important to resolve. The promise of adaptive management is that learning in the short-term will improve management in the long-term; that promise is best kept if the focus of learning is on those uncertainties that most impede achievement of management objectives. In this context, an existing tool of decision analysis, the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), is particularly valuable in identifying the most important uncertainties. Expert elicitation can be used to develop preliminary predictions of management response under a series of hypotheses, as well as prior weights for those hypotheses, and the EVPI can be used to determine how much management could improve if uncertainty was resolved. These methods were applied to management of whooping cranes (Grus americana), an endangered migratory bird that is being reintroduced in several places in North America. The Eastern Migratory Population of whooping cranes had exhibited almost no successful reproduction through 2009. Several dozen hypotheses can be advanced to explain this failure, and many of them lead to very different management responses. An expert panel articulated the hypotheses, provided prior weights for them, developed potential management strategies, and made predictions about the response of the population to each strategy under each hypothesis. Multi-criteria decision analysis identified a preferred strategy in the face of uncertainty, and analysis of the expected value of information identified how informative each strategy could be. These results provide the foundation for design of an adaptive management program.

Expert AIV: Study and Prototyping of an Expert System, To Support the Conceptual AIV Phases Of Space Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrina, G.; Basso, V.; Saitta, L.

2004-08-01

The effort in optimising the AIV process has been mainly focused in the recent years on the standardisation of approaches and on the application of new methodologies. But the earlier the intervention, the greater the benefits in terms of cost and schedule. Early phases of AIV process relied up to now on standards that need to be tailored through company and personal expertise. A study has then been conducted in order to exploit the possibility to develop an expert system helping in making choices in the early, conceptual phase of Assembly, Integration and Verification, namely the Model Philosophy and the test definition. The work focused on a hybrid approach, allowing interaction between historical data and human expertise. The expert system that has been prototyped exploits both information elicited from domain experts and results of a Data Mining activity on the existent data bases of completed projects verification data. The Data Mining algorithms allow the extraction of past experience resident on ESA/ MATD data base, which contains information in the form of statistical summaries, costs, frequencies of on-ground and in flight failures. Finding non-trivial associations could then be utilised by the experts to manage new decisions in a controlled way (Standards driven) at the beginning or during the AIV Process Moreover, the Expert AIV could allow compilation of a set of feasible AIV schedules to support further programmatic-driven choices.

Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach.

PubMed

Singh, Gerald G; Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai M A

2017-09-01

Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services. Thus understanding the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal ecosystem services would seem fundamental to management, yet there is no widely accepted approach for assessing these. This study trials an approach for understanding the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic change, focusing on Tasman and Golden Bays, New Zealand. Using an expert elicitation procedure, we collected information on three aspects of cumulative impacts: the importance and magnitude of impacts by various activities and stressors on ecosystem services, and the causal processes of impact on ecosystem services. We assessed impacts to four ecosystem service benefits - fisheries, shellfish aquaculture, marine recreation and existence value of biodiversity-addressing three main research questions: (1) how severe are cumulative impacts on ecosystem services (correspondingly, what potential is there for restoration)?; (2) are threats evenly distributed across activities and stressors, or do a few threats dominate?; (3) do prominent activities mainly operate through direct stressors, or do they often exacerbate other impacts? We found (1) that despite high uncertainty in the threat posed by individual stressors and impacts, total cumulative impact is consistently severe for all four ecosystem services. (2) A subset of drivers and stressors pose important threats across the ecosystem services explored, including climate change, commercial fishing, sedimentation and pollution. (3) Climate change and commercial fishing contribute to prominent indirect impacts across ecosystem services by exacerbating regional impacts, namely sedimentation and pollution. The prevalence and magnitude of these indirect, networked impacts highlights the need for approaches

Introduction to cognitive processes of expert pilots.

PubMed

Adams, R J; Ericsson, A E

2000-10-01

This report addresses the historical problem that a very high percentage of accidents have been classified as involving "pilot error." Through extensive research since 1977, the Federal Aviation Administration determined that the predominant underlying cause of these types of accidents involved decisional problems or cognitive information processing. To attack these problems, Aeronautical Decision Making (ADM) training materials were developed and tested for ten years. Since the publication of the ADM training manuals in 1987, significant reductions in human performance error (HPE) accidents have been documented both in the U.S. and world wide. However, shortcomings have been observed in the use of these materials for recurrency training and in their relevance to more experienced pilots. The following discussion defines the differences between expert and novice decision makers from a cognitive information processing perspective, correlates the development of expert pilot cognitive processes with training and experience, and reviews accident scenarios which exemplify those processes. This introductory material is a necessary prerequisite to an understanding of how to formulate expert pilot decision making training innovations; and, to continue the record of improved safety through ADM training.

Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens - elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures.

PubMed

Boobis, Alan; Flari, Villie; Gosling, John Paul; Hart, Andy; Craig, Peter; Rushton, Lesley; Idahosa-Taylor, Ehi

2013-07-01

The general approach to risk assessment of genotoxic carcinogens has been to advise reduction of exposure to "as low as reasonably achievable/practicable" (ALARA/P). However, whilst this remains the preferred risk management option, it does not provide guidance on the urgency or extent of risk management actions necessary. To address this, the "Margin of Exposure" (MOE) approach has been proposed. The MOE is the ratio between the point of departure for carcinogenesis and estimated human exposure. However, interpretation of the MOE requires implicit or explicit consideration of the shape of the dose-response curve at human relevant exposures. In a structured elicitation exercise, we captured expert opinion on available scientific evidence for low dose-response relationships for genotoxic carcinogens. This allowed assessment of: available evidence for the nature of dose-response relationships at human relevant exposures; the generality of judgments about such dose-response relationships; uncertainties affecting judgments on the nature of such dose-response relationships; and whether this last should differ for different classes of genotoxic carcinogens. Elicitation results reflected the variability in experts' views on the form of the dose-response curve for low dose exposure and major sources of uncertainty affecting the assumption of a linear relationship. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The digital storytelling process: A comparative analysis from various experts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Hashiroh; Shiratuddin, Norshuhada

2016-08-01

Digital Storytelling (DST) is a method of delivering information to the audience. It combines narrative and digital media content infused with the multimedia elements. In order for the educators (i.e the designers) to create a compelling digital story, there are sets of processes introduced by experts. Nevertheless, the experts suggest varieties of processes to guide them; of which some are redundant. The main aim of this study is to propose a single guide process for the creation of DST. A comparative analysis is employed where ten DST models from various experts are analysed. The process can also be implemented in other multimedia materials that used the concept of DST.

Current debates on end-of-life sedation: an international expert elicitation study.

PubMed

Papavasiliou, Evangelia Evie; Payne, Sheila; Brearley, Sarah

2014-08-01

End-of-life sedation, though increasingly prevalent and widespread internationally, remains one of the most highly debated medical practices in the context of palliative medicine. This qualitative study aims to elicit and record the perspectives of leading international palliative care experts on current debates. Twenty-one professionals from diverse backgrounds, sharing field-specific knowledge/expertise defined by significant scholarly contribution on end-of-life sedation, were recruited. Open-ended, semi-structured interviews, following a topic-oriented structure reflecting on current debates, were conducted. Results were analysed using thematic content analysis. Three main aspects of sedation were identified and discussed as potentially problematic: (a) continuous deep sedation as an extreme facet of end-of-life sedation, (b) psycho-existential suffering as an ambivalent indication for sedation and (c) withdrawal or withholding of artificial nutrition and hydration as potentially life-shortening. On these grounds, concerns were reported over end-of-life sedation being morally equivalent to euthanasia. Considerable emphasis was placed on intentions as the distinguishing factor between end-of-life acts, and protective safeguards were introduced to distance sedation from euthanasia. This study shows that, despite the safeguards introduced, certain aspects of sedation, including the intentions associated with the practice, are still under question, parallels being drawn between end-of-life sedation and euthanasia. This reaffirms the existence of a grey area surrounding the two practices, already evidenced in countries where euthanasia is legalized. More clarity over the issues that generate this grey area, with their causes being uncovered and eliminated, is imperative to resolve current debates and effectively inform research, policy and practice of end-of-life sedation.

LinkIT: a ludic elicitation game for eliciting risk perceptions.

PubMed

Cao, Yan; McGill, William L

2013-06-01

The mental models approach, a leading strategy to develop risk communications, involves a time- and labor-intensive interview process and a lengthy questionnaire to elicit group-level risk perceptions. We propose that a similarity ratings approach for structural knowledge elicitation can be adopted to assist the risk mental models approach. The LinkIT game, inspired by games with a purpose (GWAP) technology, is a ludic elicitation tool designed to elicit group understanding of the relations between risk factors in a more enjoyable and productive manner when compared to traditional approaches. That is, consistent with the idea of ludic elicitation, LinkIT was designed to make the elicitation process fun and enjoyable in the hopes of increasing participation and data quality in risk studies. Like the mental models approach, the group mental model obtained via the LinkIT game can hence be generated and represented in a form of influence diagrams. In order to examine the external validity of LinkIT, we conducted a study to compare its performance with respect to a more conventional questionnaire-driven approach. Data analysis results conclude that the two group mental models elicited from the two approaches are similar to an extent. Yet, LinkIT was more productive and enjoyable than the questionnaire. However, participants commented that the current game has some usability concerns. This presentation summarizes the design and evaluation of the LinkIT game and suggests areas for future work. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Expert systems in the process industries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanley, G. M.

1992-01-01

This paper gives an overview of industrial applications of real-time knowledge based expert systems (KBES's) in the process industries. After a brief overview of the features of a KBES useful in process applications, the general roles of KBES's are covered. A particular focus is diagnostic applications, one of the major applications areas. Many applications are seen as an expansion of supervisory control. The lessons learned from numerous online applications are summarized.

MERS-CoV at the Animal–Human Interface: Inputs on Exposure Pathways from an Expert-Opinion Elicitation

PubMed Central

Funk, Anna L.; Goutard, Flavie Luce; Miguel, Eve; Bourgarel, Mathieu; Chevalier, Veronique; Faye, Bernard; Peiris, J. S. Malik; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Roger, Francois Louis

2016-01-01

Nearly 4 years after the first report of the emergence of Middle-East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and nearly 1800 human cases later, the ecology of MERS-CoV, its epidemiology, and more than risk factors of MERS-CoV transmission between camels are poorly understood. Knowledge about the pathways and mechanisms of transmission from animals to humans is limited; as of yet, transmission risks have not been quantified. Moreover the divergent sanitary situations and exposures to animals among populations in the Arabian Peninsula, where human primary cases appear to dominate, vs. other regions in the Middle East and Africa, with no reported human clinical cases and where the virus has been detected only in dromedaries, represents huge scientific and health challenges. Here, we have used expert-opinion elicitation in order to obtain ideas on relative importance of MERS-CoV risk factors and estimates of transmission risks from various types of contact between humans and dromedaries. Fourteen experts with diverse and extensive experience in MERS-CoV relevant fields were enrolled and completed an online questionnaire that examined pathways based on several scenarios, e.g., camels–camels, camels–human, bats/other species to camels/humans, and the role of diverse biological substances (milk, urine, etc.) and potential fomites. Experts believed that dromedary camels play the largest role in MERS-CoV infection of other dromedaries; however, they also indicated a significant influence of the season (i.e. calving or weaning periods) on transmission risk. All experts thought that MERS-CoV-infected dromedaries and asymptomatic humans play the most important role in infection of humans, with bats and other species presenting a possible, but yet undefined, risk. Direct and indirect contact of humans with dromedary camels were identified as the most risky types of contact, when compared to consumption of various camel products, with estimated “most likely�

[Medical expert assessment in criminal processes from the legal viewpoint].

PubMed

Ulsenheimer, K

1996-11-01

In the area of medical professional blunder, the medical expert witness is the one participant in a trial whose statement is practically decisive for the court or the prosecutor. Legally, the responsibility remains naturally in the legal hand as the expert witness is only the assistant of the judge. The most important demands on the expert witness are strict objectiveness including towards the colleague, no independent inquiries or interrogations, comprehensive processing of the expert assessment, readiness to revise a written expert assessment according to better knowledge or new facts, independence from the client, no legal comments, clarity of language and intellectual honesty.

Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basile, Lisa R.; Kelly, Angelita C.

1987-01-01

The Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) is an integral part of the Space Shuttle data network for missions that involve attached scientific payloads. Expert system prototypes were developed to aid in the performance of the quality assurance function of the Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads processed telemetry data. The Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS), two expert systems, were developed to determine their feasibility and potential in the quality assurance of processed telemetry data. The capabilities and performance of these systems are discussed.

Elicitation Support Requirements of Multi-Expertise Teams

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bitter-Rijpkema, Marlies; Martens, Rob; Jochems, Wim

2005-01-01

Tools to support knowledge elicitation are used more and more in situations where employees or students collaborate using the computer. Studies indicate that differences exist between experts and novices regarding their methods of work and reasoning. However, the commonly preferred approach tends to deal with team members as a single system with…

Concurrent Data Elicitation Procedures, Processes, and the Early Stages of L2 Learning: A Critical Overview

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leow, Ronald P.; Grey, Sarah; Marijuan, Silvia; Moorman, Colleen

2014-01-01

Given the current methodological interest in eliciting direct data on the cognitive processes L2 learners employ as they interact with L2 data during the early stages of the learning process, this article takes a critical and comparative look at three concurrent data elicitation procedures currently employed in the SLA literature: Think aloud (TA)…

Literally experts: expertise and the processing of analogical metaphors in pharmaceutical advertising.

PubMed

Delbaere, Marjorie; Smith, Malcolm C

2014-01-01

This research examined differences between novices and experts in processing analogical metaphors appearing in prescription drug advertisements. In contrast to previous studies on knowledge transfer, no evidence of the superiority of experts in processing metaphors was found. The results from an experiment suggest that expert consumers were more likely to process a metaphor in an ad literally than novices. Our findings point to a condition in which the expertise effect with processing analogies is not the linear relationship assumed in previous studies.

Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors

PubMed Central

Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M. Granger

2013-01-01

Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable. PMID:23716682

Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors.

PubMed

Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M Granger

2013-06-11

Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable.

A new way to ask the experts: Rating radioactive waste risks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, R.A.

1996-11-08

The possible risks of a proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain include the dozen or more young volcanos near by. Now some earth scientists have a new approach to evaluating hazards accounting for uncertainty at every step - `expert elicitation.` This pulls together a panel of experts, carefully assesses the uncertainties of each of their views then mathematically combines their risk estimates along with the accompanying uncertainties. The article goes on to describe just such a panel which considered seismic hazards to Yucca Mountain, how they came to their conclusions, the arguments about the conclusions, and the future ofmore » expert elicitation in evaluating the risks of nuclear waste disposal.« less

"Getting the Point" of Literature: Relations between Processing and Interpretation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burkett, Candice; Goldman, Susan R.

2016-01-01

Comparisons of literary experts and novices indicate that experts engage in interpretive processes to "get the point" during their reading of literary texts but novices do not. In two studies the reading and interpretive processes of literary novices (undergraduates with no formal training in literature study) were elicited through…

Controlling Real-Time Processes On The Space Station With Expert Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leinweber, David; Perry, John

1987-02-01

Many aspects of space station operations involve continuous control of real-time processes. These processes include electrical power system monitoring, propulsion system health and maintenance, environmental and life support systems, space suit checkout, on-board manufacturing, and servicing of attached vehicles such as satellites, shuttles, orbital maneuvering vehicles, orbital transfer vehicles and remote teleoperators. Traditionally, monitoring of these critical real-time processes has been done by trained human experts monitoring telemetry data. However, the long duration of space station missions and the high cost of crew time in space creates a powerful economic incentive for the development of highly autonomous knowledge-based expert control procedures for these space stations. In addition to controlling the normal operations of these processes, the expert systems must also be able to quickly respond to anomalous events, determine their cause and initiate corrective actions in a safe and timely manner. This must be accomplished without excessive diversion of system resources from ongoing control activities and any events beyond the scope of the expert control and diagnosis functions must be recognized and brought to the attention of human operators. Real-time sensor based expert systems (as opposed to off-line, consulting or planning systems receiving data via the keyboard) pose particular problems associated with sensor failures, sensor degradation and data consistency, which must be explicitly handled in an efficient manner. A set of these systems must also be able to work together in a cooperative manner. This paper describes the requirements for real-time expert systems in space station control, and presents prototype implementations of space station expert control procedures in PICON (process intelligent control). PICON is a real-time expert system shell which operates in parallel with distributed data acquisition systems. It incorporates a specialized

Integrating expert judgment in veterinary epidemiology: example guidance for disease freedom surveillance.

PubMed

Gustafson, L L; Gustafson, D H; Antognoli, M C; Remmenga, M D

2013-04-01

Expert opinions supplement empirical data in many epidemiologic assessments. For veterinary disease freedom surveillance, where the geographic scope of concern is often broad, populations subject to change, decisions eminent and empirical data, expert opinion can be a critical component of the decision making process. However, opinion is by definition subjective and the manner in which opinion is sought can impact the quality and reliability of estimates. Group interaction can hinder or improve the estimation process, depending on its facilitation. Further, whether and how validation is conducted can limit or increase acceptance of the resulting model. While the utility of expert opinion is widely recognized in many fields, and the impact of its use or misuse implicit, standards for application to veterinary assessments are not readily available. This paper aims to foster discussion on this influential component of epidemiology, with disease freedom application as a focus. Benefits and concerns attributed to expert judgment and guidelines for its structured elicitation are described, borrowing insights from its long history of use in decision science fields and examples from recent veterinary assessments. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Developing a Methodology for Eliciting Subjective Probability Estimates During Expert Evaluations of Safety Interventions: Application for Bayesian Belief Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiegmann, Douglas A.a

2005-01-01

The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has defined several products that will potentially modify airline and/or ATC operations, enhance aircraft systems, and improve the identification of potential hazardous situations within the National Airspace System (NAS). Consequently, there is a need to develop methods for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the judgments to develop Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN's) that model the potential impact that specific interventions may have. Specifically, the present report summarizes methodologies for improving the elicitation of probability estimates during expert evaluations of AvSP products for use in BBN's. The work involved joint efforts between Professor James Luxhoj from Rutgers University and researchers at the University of Illinois. The Rutgers' project to develop BBN's received funding by NASA entitled "Probabilistic Decision Support for Evaluating Technology Insertion and Assessing Aviation Safety System Risk." The proposed project was funded separately but supported the existing Rutgers' program.

Expert models and modeling processes associated with a computer-modeling tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Baohui; Liu, Xiufeng; Krajcik, Joseph S.

2006-07-01

Holding the premise that the development of expertise is a continuous process, this study concerns expert models and modeling processes associated with a modeling tool called Model-It. Five advanced Ph.D. students in environmental engineering and public health used Model-It to create and test models of water quality. Using think aloud technique and video recording, we captured their computer screen modeling activities and thinking processes. We also interviewed them the day following their modeling sessions to further probe the rationale of their modeling practices. We analyzed both the audio-video transcripts and the experts' models. We found the experts' modeling processes followed the linear sequence built in the modeling program with few instances of moving back and forth. They specified their goals up front and spent a long time thinking through an entire model before acting. They specified relationships with accurate and convincing evidence. Factors (i.e., variables) in expert models were clustered, and represented by specialized technical terms. Based on the above findings, we made suggestions for improving model-based science teaching and learning using Model-It.

Eliciting improved quantitative judgements using the IDEA protocol: A case study in natural resource management.

PubMed

Hemming, Victoria; Walshe, Terry V; Hanea, Anca M; Fidler, Fiona; Burgman, Mark A

2018-01-01

Natural resource management uses expert judgement to estimate facts that inform important decisions. Unfortunately, expert judgement is often derived by informal and largely untested protocols, despite evidence that the quality of judgements can be improved with structured approaches. We attribute the lack of uptake of structured protocols to the dearth of illustrative examples that demonstrate how they can be applied within pressing time and resource constraints, while also improving judgements. In this paper, we demonstrate how the IDEA protocol for structured expert elicitation may be deployed to overcome operational challenges while improving the quality of judgements. The protocol was applied to the estimation of 14 future abiotic and biotic events on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Seventy-six participants with varying levels of expertise related to the Great Barrier Reef were recruited and allocated randomly to eight groups. Each participant provided their judgements using the four-step question format of the IDEA protocol ('Investigate', 'Discuss', 'Estimate', 'Aggregate') through remote elicitation. When the events were realised, the participant judgements were scored in terms of accuracy, calibration and informativeness. The results demonstrate that the IDEA protocol provides a practical, cost-effective, and repeatable approach to the elicitation of quantitative estimates and uncertainty via remote elicitation. We emphasise that i) the aggregation of diverse individual judgements into pooled group judgments almost always outperformed individuals, and ii) use of a modified Delphi approach helped to remove linguistic ambiguity, and further improved individual and group judgements. Importantly, the protocol encourages review, critical appraisal and replication, each of which is required if judgements are to be used in place of data in a scientific context. The results add to the growing body of literature that demonstrates the merit of using structured

Genuine eye contact elicits self-referential processing.

PubMed

Hietanen, Jonne O; Hietanen, Jari K

2017-05-01

The effect of eye contact on self-awareness was investigated with implicit measures based on the use of first-person singular pronouns in sentences. The measures were proposed to tap into self-referential processing, that is, information processing associated with self-awareness. In addition, participants filled in a questionnaire measuring explicit self-awareness. In Experiment 1, the stimulus was a video clip showing another person and, in Experiment 2, the stimulus was a live person. In both experiments, participants were divided into two groups and presented with the stimulus person either making eye contact or gazing downward, depending on the group assignment. During the task, the gaze stimulus was presented before each trial of the pronoun-selection task. Eye contact was found to increase the use of first-person pronouns, but only when participants were facing a real person, not when they were looking at a video of a person. No difference in self-reported self-awareness was found between the two gaze direction groups in either experiment. The results indicate that eye contact elicits self-referential processing, but the effect may be stronger, or possibly limited to, live interaction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Business Process Elicitation, Modeling, and Reengineering: Teaching and Learning with Simulated Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jeyaraj, Anand

2010-01-01

The design of enterprise information systems requires students to master technical skills for elicitation, modeling, and reengineering business processes as well as soft skills for information gathering and communication. These tacit skills and behaviors cannot be effectively taught students but rather experienced and learned by students. This…

Effects of competitive pressure on expert performance: underlying psychological, physiological, and kinematic mechanisms.

PubMed

Cooke, Andrew; Kavussanu, Maria; McIntyre, David; Boardley, Ian D; Ring, Christopher

2011-08-01

Although it is well established that performance is influenced by competitive pressure, our understanding of the mechanisms which underlie the pressure-performance relationship is limited. The current experiment examined mediators of the relationship between competitive pressure and motor skill performance of experts. Psychological, physiological, and kinematic responses to three levels of competitive pressure were measured in 50 expert golfers, during a golf putting task. Elevated competitive pressure increased putting accuracy, anxiety, effort, and heart rate, but decreased grip force. Quadratic effects of pressure were noted for self-reported conscious processing and impact velocity. Mediation analyses revealed that effort and heart rate partially mediated improved performance. The findings indicate that competitive pressure elicits effects on expert performance through both psychological and physiological pathways. Copyright © 2011 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

a New Method for Fmeca Based on Fuzzy Theory and Expert System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byeon, Yoong-Tae; Kim, Dong-Jin; Kim, Jin-O.

2008-10-01

Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is one of most widely used methods in modern engineering system to investigate potential failure modes and its severity upon the system. FMECA evaluates criticality and severity of each failure mode and visualize the risk level matrix putting those indices to column and row variable respectively. Generally, those indices are determined subjectively by experts and operators. However, this process has no choice but to include uncertainty. In this paper, a method for eliciting expert opinions considering its uncertainty is proposed to evaluate the criticality and severity. In addition, a fuzzy expert system is constructed in order to determine the crisp value of risk level for each failure mode. Finally, an illustrative example system is analyzed in the case study. The results are worth considering in deciding the proper policies for each component of the system.

Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion.

PubMed

Gale, P; Brouwer, A; Ramnial, V; Kelly, L; Kosmider, R; Fooks, A R; Snary, E L

2010-02-01

Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change.

Quantifying Novice and Expert Differences in Visual Diagnostic Reasoning in Veterinary Pathology Using Eye-Tracking Technology.

PubMed

Warren, Amy L; Donnon, Tyrone L; Wagg, Catherine R; Priest, Heather; Fernandez, Nicole J

2018-01-18

Visual diagnostic reasoning is the cognitive process by which pathologists reach a diagnosis based on visual stimuli (cytologic, histopathologic, or gross imagery). Currently, there is little to no literature examining visual reasoning in veterinary pathology. The objective of the study was to use eye tracking to establish baseline quantitative and qualitative differences between the visual reasoning processes of novice and expert veterinary pathologists viewing cytology specimens. Novice and expert participants were each shown 10 cytology images and asked to formulate a diagnosis while wearing eye-tracking equipment (10 slides) and while concurrently verbalizing their thought processes using the think-aloud protocol (5 slides). Compared to novices, experts demonstrated significantly higher diagnostic accuracy (p<.017), shorter time to diagnosis (p<.017), and a higher percentage of time spent viewing areas of diagnostic interest (p<.017). Experts elicited more key diagnostic features in the think-aloud protocol and had more efficient patterns of eye movement. These findings suggest that experts' fast time to diagnosis, efficient eye-movement patterns, and preference for viewing areas of interest supports system 1 (pattern-recognition) reasoning and script-inductive knowledge structures with system 2 (analytic) reasoning to verify their diagnosis.

Human motion tracking by temporal-spatial local gaussian process experts.

PubMed

Zhao, Xu; Fu, Yun; Liu, Yuncai

2011-04-01

Human pose estimation via motion tracking systems can be considered as a regression problem within a discriminative framework. It is always a challenging task to model the mapping from observation space to state space because of the high-dimensional characteristic in the multimodal conditional distribution. In order to build the mapping, existing techniques usually involve a large set of training samples in the learning process which are limited in their capability to deal with multimodality. We propose, in this work, a novel online sparse Gaussian Process (GP) regression model to recover 3-D human motion in monocular videos. Particularly, we investigate the fact that for a given test input, its output is mainly determined by the training samples potentially residing in its local neighborhood and defined in the unified input-output space. This leads to a local mixture GP experts system composed of different local GP experts, each of which dominates a mapping behavior with the specific covariance function adapting to a local region. To handle the multimodality, we combine both temporal and spatial information therefore to obtain two categories of local experts. The temporal and spatial experts are integrated into a seamless hybrid system, which is automatically self-initialized and robust for visual tracking of nonlinear human motion. Learning and inference are extremely efficient as all the local experts are defined online within very small neighborhoods. Extensive experiments on two real-world databases, HumanEva and PEAR, demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model, which significantly improve the performance of existing models.

Expert system and process optimization techniques for real-time monitoring and control of plasma processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Jie; Qian, Zhaogang; Irani, Keki B.; Etemad, Hossein; Elta, Michael E.

1991-03-01

To meet the ever-increasing demand of the rapidly-growing semiconductor manufacturing industry it is critical to have a comprehensive methodology integrating techniques for process optimization real-time monitoring and adaptive process control. To this end we have accomplished an integrated knowledge-based approach combining latest expert system technology machine learning method and traditional statistical process control (SPC) techniques. This knowledge-based approach is advantageous in that it makes it possible for the task of process optimization and adaptive control to be performed consistently and predictably. Furthermore this approach can be used to construct high-level and qualitative description of processes and thus make the process behavior easy to monitor predict and control. Two software packages RIST (Rule Induction and Statistical Testing) and KARSM (Knowledge Acquisition from Response Surface Methodology) have been developed and incorporated with two commercially available packages G2 (real-time expert system) and ULTRAMAX (a tool for sequential process optimization).

How Expert Pilots Think Cognitive Processes in Expert Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-02-01

Management (CRM) This document is available to the public Advanced Qualification Program (AQP) through the National Technical Information Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA...8217 Selecting realistic EDM scenarios with critical events and performing a cognitive task analysis of novice vs. expert decision making for these events...scenarios with critical events and performing a cognitive task analysis of novice vs. expert decision making for these events is a basic requirement for

Experiences of Structured Elicitation for Model-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analyses.

PubMed

Soares, Marta O; Sharples, Linda; Morton, Alec; Claxton, Karl; Bojke, Laura

2018-06-01

Empirical evidence supporting the cost-effectiveness estimates of particular health care technologies may be limited, or it may even be missing entirely. In these situations, additional information, often in the form of expert judgments, is needed to reach a decision. There are formal methods to quantify experts' beliefs, termed as structured expert elicitation (SEE), but only limited research is available in support of methodological choices. Perhaps as a consequence, the use of SEE in the context of cost-effectiveness modelling is limited. This article reviews applications of SEE in cost-effectiveness modelling with the aim of summarizing the basis for methodological choices made in each application and recording the difficulties and challenges reported by the authors in the design, conduct, and analyses. The methods used in each application were extracted along with the criteria used to support methodological and practical choices and any issues or challenges discussed in the text. Issues and challenges were extracted using an open field, and then categorised and grouped for reporting. The review demonstrates considerable heterogeneity in methods used, and authors acknowledge great methodological uncertainty in justifying their choices. Specificities of the context area emerging as potentially important in determining further methodological research in elicitation are between- expert variation and its interpretation, the fact that substantive experts in the area may not be trained in quantitative subjects, that judgments are often needed on various parameter types, the need for some form of assessment of validity, and the need for more integration with behavioural research to devise relevant debiasing strategies. This review of experiences of SEE highlights a number of specificities/constraints that can shape the development of guidance and target future research efforts in this area. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes

Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luxhoj, J. T.; Ancel, E.; Green, L. L.; Shih, A. T.; Jones, S. M.; Reveley, M. S.

2014-01-01

Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

2016-04-01

For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

Holistic processing of musical notation: Dissociating failures of selective attention in experts and novices.

PubMed

Wong, Yetta Kwailing; Gauthier, Isabel

2010-12-01

Holistic processing (i.e., the tendency to process objects as wholes) is associated with face perception and also with expertise individuating novel objects. Surprisingly, recent work also reveals holistic effects in novice observers. It is unclear whether the same mechanisms support holistic effects in experts and in novices. In the present study, we measured holistic processing of music sequences using a selective attention task in participants who vary in music-reading expertise. We found that holistic effects were strategic in novices but were relatively automatic in experts. Correlational analyses revealed that individual holistic effects were predicted by both individual music-reading ability and neural responses for musical notation in the right fusiform face area (rFFA), but in opposite directions for experts and novices, suggesting that holistic effects in the two groups may be of different natures. To characterize expert perception, it is important not only to measure the tendency to process objects as wholes, but also to test whether this effect is dependent on task constraints.

At-risk adolescents as experts in a new requirements elicitation procedure for the development of a smart phone psychoeducational trauma-informed care application.

PubMed

Sockolow, Paulina; Schug, Seran; Zhu, Jichen; Smith, T J; Senathirajah, Yalini; Bloom, Sandra

2017-01-01

Adolescents from urban, socioeconomically disadvantaged communities of color encounter high rates of adverse childhood experiences. To address the resulting multidimensional problems, we developed an innovative approach, Experiential Participatory and Interactive Knowledge Elicitation (EPIKE), using remote experiential needs elicitation methods to generate design and content requirements for a mobile health (mHealth) psychoeducational intervention. At a community-based organization in a northeastern city, the research team developed EPIKE by incorporating elicitation of input on the graphics and conducting remotely recorded experiential meetings and iterative reviews of the design to produce an mHealth smartphone story application (app) prototype for the participants to critique. The 22 participants were 13- to 17-year-olds, predominantly African American and female, from underresourced communities. The four goals of the design process were attained: 1) story development from participant input; 2) needs-elicitation that reflected the patient-centered care approach; 3) interactive story game creation that accommodates the participants' emotional and cognitive developmental needs; 4) development of a game that adolescents can relate to and that which matches their comfort levels of emotional intensity. The EPIKE approach can be used successfully to identify the needs of adolescents across the digital divide to inform the design and development of mHealth apps.

Expert surgical consensus for prenatal counseling using the Delphi method.

PubMed

Berman, Loren; Jackson, Jordan; Miller, Kristen; Kowalski, Rebecca; Kolm, Paul; Luks, Francois I

2017-11-28

Pediatric surgeons frequently offer prenatal consultation for congenital pulmonary airway malformation (CPAM) and congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH); however, there is no evidence-based consensus to guide prenatal decision making and counseling for these conditions. Eliciting feedback from experts is integral to defining best practice regarding prenatal counseling and intervention. A Delphi consensus process was undertaken using a panel of pediatric surgeons identified as experts in fetal therapy to address current limitations. Areas of discrepancy in the literature on CPAM and CDH were identified and used to generate a list of content and intervention questions. Experts were invited to participate in an online Delphi survey. Items that did not reach first-round consensus were broken down into additional questions, and consensus was achieved in the second round. Fifty-four surgeons (69%) responded to at least one of the two survey rounds. During round one, consensus was reached on 54 of 89 survey questions (61%), and 45 new questions were developed. During round two, consensus was reached on 53 of 60 survey questions (88%). We determined expert consensus to establish guidelines regarding perinatal management of CPAM and CDH. Our results can help educate pediatric surgeons participating in perinatal care of these patients. V. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic array processing for computationally intensive expert systems in CLIPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Athavale, N. N.; Ragade, R. K.; Fenske, T. E.; Cassaro, M. A.

1990-01-01

This paper puts forth an architecture for implementing a loop for advanced data structure of arrays in CLIPS. An attempt is made to use multi-field variables in such an architecture to process a set of data during the decision making cycle. Also, current limitations on the expert system shells are discussed in brief in this paper. The resulting architecture is designed to circumvent the current limitations set by the expert system shell and also by the operating environment. Such advanced data structures are needed for tightly coupling symbolic and numeric computation modules.

Reasoning process characteristics in the diagnostic skills of beginner, competent, and expert dentists.

PubMed

Crespo, Kathleen E; Torres, José E; Recio, María E

2004-12-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate qualitative differences in the diagnostic reasoning process at different developmental stages of expertise. A qualitative design was used to study cognitive processes that characterize the diagnosis of oral disease at the stages of beginner (five junior students who had passed the NBDE I), competent (five GPR first-year residents), and expert dentists (five general dentists with ten or more years of experience). Individually, each participant was asked to determine the diagnosis of an oral condition based on a written clinical case, using the think aloud technique and retrospective reports. A subsequent interview was conducted to obtain the participants' diagnostic process model and pathophysiology of the case. The analysis of the verbal protocols indicated that experts referred to the patient's sociomedical context more frequently, demonstrated better organization of ideas, could determine key clinical findings, and had an ability to plan for the search of pertinent information. Fewer diagnostic hypotheses were formulated by participants who used forward reasoning, independent of the stage of development. Beginners requested additional diagnostic aids (radiographs, laboratory tests) more frequently than the competent/expert dentists. Experts recalled typical experiences with patients, while competent/beginner dentists recalled information from didactic courses. Experts evidenced cognitive diagnostic schemas that integrate pathophysiology of disease, while competent and beginner participants had not achieved this integration. We conclude that expert performance is a combination of a knowledge base, reasoning skills, and an accumulation of experiences with patients that is qualitatively different from that of competent and beginner dentists. It is important for dental education to emphasize the teaching of cognitive processes and to incorporate a wide variety of clinical experiences in addition to the teaching of

Patient Health Goals Elicited During Home Care Admission: A Categorization.

PubMed

Sockolow, Paulina; Radhakrishnan, Kavita; Chou, Edgar Y; Wojciechowicz, Christine

2017-11-01

Home care agencies are initiating "patient health goal elicitation" activities as part of home care admission planning. We categorized elicited goals and identified "clinically informative" goals at a home care agency. We examined patient goals that admitting clinicians documented in the point-of-care electronic health record; conducted content analysis on patient goal data to develop a coding scheme; grouped goal themes into codes; assigned codes to each goal; and identified goals that were in the patient voice. Of the 1,763 patient records, 16% lacked a goal; only 15 goals were in a patient's voice. Nurse and physician experts identified 12 of the 20 codes as clinically important accounting for 82% of goal occurrences. The most frequent goal documented was safety/falls (23%). Training and consistent communication of the intent and operationalization of patient goal elicitation may address the absence of patient voice and the less than universal recording of home care patients' goals.

Eliciting and Developing Teachers' Conceptions of Random Processes in a Probability and Statistics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Toni M.; Hjalmarson, Margret A.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine prospective mathematics specialists' engagement in an instructional sequence designed to elicit and develop their understandings of random processes. The study was conducted with two different sections of a probability and statistics course for K-8 teachers. Thirty-two teachers participated. Video analyses…

Expert judgments about RD&D and the future of nuclear energy.

PubMed

Anadón, Laura D; Bosetti, Valentina; Bunn, Matthew; Catenacci, Michela; Lee, Audrey

2012-11-06

Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. We used a novel elicitation approach which combined individual and group elicitation. With no change from current RD&D funding levels, experts on average expected current (Gen. III/III+) designs to be somewhat more expensive in 2030 than they were in 2010, and they expected the next generation of designs (Gen. IV) to be more expensive still as of 2030. Projected costs of proposed small modular reactors (SMRs) were similar to those of Gen. IV systems. The experts almost unanimously recommended large increases in government support for nuclear RD&D (generally 2-3 times current spending). The majority expected that such RD&D would have only a modest effect on cost, but would improve performance in other areas, such as safety, waste management, and uranium resource utilization. The U.S. and E.U. experts were in relative agreement regarding how government RD&D funds should be allocated, placing particular focus on very high temperature reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, fuels and materials, and fuel cycle technologies.

Expert panel reviews of research centers: the site visit process.

PubMed

Lawrenz, Frances; Thao, Mao; Johnson, Kelli

2012-08-01

Site visits are used extensively in a variety of settings within the evaluation community. They are especially common in making summative value decisions about the quality and worth of research programs/centers. However, there has been little empirical research and guidance about how to appropriately conduct evaluative site visits of research centers. We review the processes of two site visit examples using an expert panel review: (1) a process to evaluate four university research centers and (2) a process to review a federally sponsored research center. A set of 14 categories describing the expert panel review process was obtained through content analysis and participant observation. Most categories were addressed differently through the two processes highlighting the need for more research about the most effective processes to use within different contexts. Decisions about how to structure site visits appear to depend on the research context, practical considerations, the level at which the review is being conducted and the intended impact of the report. Future research pertaining to the selection of site visitors, the autonomy of the visitors in data collection and report writing, and the amount and type of information provided would be particularly valuable. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An expert systems application to space base data processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Babb, Stephen M.

1988-01-01

The advent of space vehicles with their increased data requirements are reflected in the complexity of future telemetry systems. Space based operations with its immense operating costs will shift the burden of data processing and routine analysis from the space station to the Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV). A research and development project is described which addresses the real time onboard data processing tasks associated with a space based vehicle, specifically focusing on an implementation of an expert system.

ISA implementation and uncertainty: a literature review and expert elicitation study.

PubMed

van der Pas, J W G M; Marchau, V A W J; Walker, W E; van Wee, G P; Vlassenroot, S H

2012-09-01

Each day, an average of over 116 people die from traffic accidents in the European Union. One out of three fatalities is estimated to be the result of speeding. The current state of technology makes it possible to make speeding more difficult, or even impossible, by placing intelligent speed limiters (so called ISA devices) in vehicles. Although the ISA technology has been available for some years now, and reducing the number of road traffic fatalities and injuries has been high on the European political agenda, implementation still seems to be far away. Experts indicate that there are still too many uncertainties surrounding ISA implementation, and dealing with these uncertainties is essential for implementing ISA. In this paper, a systematic and representative inventory of the uncertainties is made based upon the literature. Furthermore, experts in the field of ISA were surveyed and asked which uncertainties are barriers for ISA implementation, and how uncertain these uncertainties are. We found that the long-term effects and the effects of large-scale implementation of ISA are still uncertain and are the most important barriers for the implementation of the most effective types of ISA. One way to deal with these uncertainties would be to start implementation on a small scale and gradually expand the penetration, in order to learn how ISA influences the transport system over time. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Breadth in Design Problem Scoping: Using Insights from Experts to Investigate Student Processes. Research Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morozov, Andrew; Kilgore, Deborah; Atman, Cynthia

2007-01-01

In this study, the authors used two methods for analyzing expert data: verbal protocol analysis (VPA) and narrative analysis. VPA has been effectively used to describe the design processes employed by engineering students, expert designers, and expert-novice comparative research. VPA involves asking participants to "think aloud" while…

Development of the Diagnostic Expert System for Tea Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshitomi, Hitoshi; Yamaguchi, Yuichi

A diagnostic expert system for tea processing which can presume the cause of the defect of the processed tea was developed to contribute to the improvement of tea processing. This system that consists of some programs can be used through the Internet. The inference engine, the core of the system adopts production system which is well used on artificial intelligence, and is coded by Prolog as the artificial intelligence oriented language. At present, 176 rules for inference have been registered on this system. The system will be able to presume better if more rules are added to the system.

Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelly, Angelita C.; Basile, Lisa; Ames, Troy; Watson, Janice; Dallam, William

1987-01-01

Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) expert system prototypes were developed to assist in the quality assurance of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payload (ASP) processed telemetry data. The SLDPF functions include the capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of mission data to various user facilities. Prototypes for the two SLDPF functional elements, the Spacelab Output Processing System and the Spacelab Input Processing Element, are described. The prototypes have produced beneficial results including an increase in analyst productivity, a decrease in the burden of tedious analyses, the consistent evaluation of data, and the providing of concise historical records.

Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelly, Angelita C.; Basile, Lisa; Ames, Troy; Watson, Janice; Dallam, William

1987-01-01

Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) expert system prototypes have been developed to assist in the quality assurance of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payload (ASP) processed telemetry data. SLDPF functions include the capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of mission data to various user facilities. Prototypes for the two SLDPF functional elements, the Spacelab Output Processing System and the Spacelab Input Processing Element, are described. The prototypes have produced beneficial results including an increase in analyst productivity, a decrease in the burden of tedious analyses, the consistent evaluation of data, and the providing of concise historical records.

Modelling health care processes for eliciting user requirements: a way to link a quality paradigm and clinical information system design.

PubMed

Staccini, P; Joubert, M; Quaranta, J F; Fieschi, D; Fieschi, M

2001-12-01

Healthcare institutions are looking at ways to increase their efficiency by reducing costs while providing care services with a high level of safety. Thus, hospital information systems have to support quality improvement objectives. The elicitation of the requirements has to meet users' needs in relation to both the quality (efficacy, safety) and the monitoring of all health care activities (traceability). Information analysts need methods to conceptualise clinical information systems that provide actors with individual benefits and guide behavioural changes. A methodology is proposed to elicit and structure users' requirements using a process-oriented analysis, and it is applied to the blood transfusion process. An object-oriented data model of a process has been defined in order to organise the data dictionary. Although some aspects of activity, such as 'where', 'what else', and 'why' are poorly represented by the data model alone, this method of requirement elicitation fits the dynamic of data input for the process to be traced. A hierarchical representation of hospital activities has to be found for the processes to be interrelated, and for their characteristics to be shared, in order to avoid data redundancy and to fit the gathering of data with the provision of care.

The effects of rational and experiential information processing of expert testimony in death penalty cases.

PubMed

Krauss, Daniel A; Lieberman, Joel D; Olson, Jodi

2004-01-01

Past research examining the effects of actuarial and clinical expert testimony on defendants' dangerousness in Texas death penalty sentencing has found that jurors are more influenced by less scientific pure clinical expert testimony and less influenced by more scientific actuarial expert testimony (Krauss & Lee, 2003; Krauss & Sales, 2001). By applying cognitive-experiential self-theory (CEST) to juror decision-making, the present study was undertaken in an attempt to offer a theoretical rationale for these findings. Based on past CEST research, 163 mock jurors were either directed into a rational mode or experiential mode of processing. Consistent with CEST and inconsistent with previous research using the same stimulus materials, results demonstrate that jurors in a rational mode of processing more heavily weighted actuarial expert testimony in their dangerousness assessments, while those jurors in the experiential condition were more influenced by clinical expert testimony. The policy implications of these findings are discussed. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Experts correctly describe demography associated with historical decline of the endangered Indiana bat, but not recent period of stationarity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Szymanski, Jennifer; Pruitt, Lori; Runge, Michael C.

2017-01-01

Demographic characteristics of bats are often insufficiently described for modeling populations. In data poor situations, experts are often relied upon for characterizing ecological systems. In concert with the development of a matrix model describing Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) demography, we elicited estimates for parameterizing this model from 12 experts. We conducted this elicitation in two stages, requesting expert values for 12 demographic rates. These rates were adult and juvenile seasonal (winter, summer, fall) survival rates, pup survival in fall, and propensity and success at breeding. Experts were most in agreement about adult fall survival (3% Coefficient of Variation) and least in agreement about propensity of juveniles to breed (37% CV). The experts showed greater concordance for adult ( mean CV, adult = 6.2%) than for juvenile parameters ( mean CV, juvenile = 16.4%), and slightly more agreement for survival (mean CV, survival = 9.8%) compared to reproductive rates ( mean CV, reproduction = 15.1%). However, survival and reproduction were negatively and positively biased, respectively, relative to a stationary dynamic. Despite the species exhibiting near stationary dynamics for two decades prior to the onset of a potential extinction-causing agent, white-nose syndrome, expert estimates indicated a population decline of -11% per year (95% CI = -2%, -20%); quasi-extinction was predicted within a century ( mean = 61 years to QE, range = 32, 97) by 10 of the 12 experts. Were we to use these expert estimates in our modeling efforts, we would have errantly trained our models to a rapidly declining demography asymptomatic of recent demographic behavior. While experts are sometimes the only source of information, a clear understanding of the temporal and spatial context of the information being elicited is necessary to guard against wayward predictions.

Content validation using an expert panel: assessment process for assistive technology adopted by farmers with disabilities.

PubMed

Mathew, S N; Field, W E; French, B F

2011-07-01

This article reports the use of an expert panel to perform content validation of an experimental assessment process for the safety of assistive technology (AT) adopted by farmers with disabilities. The validation process was conducted by a panel of six experts experienced in the subject matter, i.e., design, use, and assessment of AT for farmers with disabilities. The exercise included an evaluation session and two focus group sessions. The evaluation session consisted of using the assessment process under consideration by the panel to evaluate a set of nine ATs fabricated by a farmer on his farm site. The expert panel also participated in the focus group sessions conducted immediately before and after the evaluation session. The resulting data were analyzed using discursive analysis, and the results were incorporated into the final assessment process. The method and the results are presented with recommendations for the use of expert panels in research projects and validation of assessment tools.

Short-term leprosy forecasting from an expert opinion survey.

PubMed

Deiner, Michael S; Worden, Lee; Rittel, Alex; Ackley, Sarah F; Liu, Fengchen; Blum, Laura; Scott, James C; Lietman, Thomas M; Porco, Travis C

2017-01-01

We conducted an expert survey of leprosy (Hansen's Disease) and neglected tropical disease experts in February 2016. Experts were asked to forecast the next year of reported cases for the world, for the top three countries, and for selected states and territories of India. A total of 103 respondents answered at least one forecasting question. We elicited lower and upper confidence bounds. Comparing these results to regression and exponential smoothing, we found no evidence that any forecasting method outperformed the others. We found evidence that experts who believed it was more likely to achieve global interruption of transmission goals and disability reduction goals had higher error scores for India and Indonesia, but lower for Brazil. Even for a disease whose epidemiology changes on a slow time scale, forecasting exercises such as we conducted are simple and practical. We believe they can be used on a routine basis in public health.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pilat, Joseph F

The application of the methodology developed by the GenIV International Forum's (GIF's) Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) Working Group is an expert elicitation. Although the framework of the methodology is structured and systematic, it does not by itself constitute or require a formal elicitation. However, formal elicitation can be utilized in the PR&PP context to provide a systematic, credible and transparent qualitative analysis and develop input for quantitative analyses. This section provides an overview of expert elicitations, a discussion of the role formal expert elicitations can play in the PR&PP methodology, an outline of the formal expert elicitation processmore » and a brief practical guide to conducting formal expert elicitations. Expert elicitation is a process utilizing knowledgeable people in cases, for example, when an assessment is needed but physically based data is absent or open to interpretation. More specifically, it can be used to: (1) predict future events; (2) provide estimates on new, rare, complex or poorly understood phenomena; (3) integrate or interpret existing information; or (4) determine what is currently known, how well it is known or what is worth learning in a field. Expert elicitation can be informal or formal. The informal application of expert judgment is frequently used. Although it can produce good results, it often provides demonstrably biased or otherwise flawed answers to problems. This along with the absence of transparency can result in a loss of confidence when experts speak on issues. More formal expert elicitation is a structured process that makes use of people knowledgeable in certain areas to make assessments. The reason for advocating formal use is that the quality and accuracy of expert judgment comes from the completeness of the expert's understanding of the phenomena and the process used to elicit and analyze the data. The use of a more formal process to obtain, lU1derstand and

Hybrid expert system for decision supporting in the medical area: complexity and cognitive computing.

PubMed

Brasil, L M; de Azevedo, F M; Barreto, J M

2001-09-01

This paper proposes a hybrid expert system (HES) to minimise some complexity problems pervasive to the artificial intelligence such as: the knowledge elicitation process, known as the bottleneck of expert systems; the model choice for knowledge representation to code human reasoning; the number of neurons in the hidden layer and the topology used in the connectionist approach; the difficulty to obtain the explanation on how the network arrived to a conclusion. Two algorithms applied to developing of HES are also suggested. One of them is used to train the fuzzy neural network and the other to obtain explanations on how the fuzzy neural network attained a conclusion. To overcome these difficulties the cognitive computing was integrated to the developed system. A case study is presented (e.g. epileptic crisis) with the problem definition and simulations. Results are also discussed.

Modelling health care processes for eliciting user requirements: a way to link a quality paradigm and clinical information system design.

PubMed

Staccini, P; Joubert, M; Quaranta, J F; Fieschi, D; Fieschi, M

2000-01-01

Hospital information systems have to support quality improvement objectives. The design issues of health care information system can be classified into three categories: 1) time-oriented and event-labelled storage of patient data; 2) contextual support of decision-making; 3) capabilities for modular upgrading. The elicitation of the requirements has to meet users' needs in relation to both the quality (efficacy, safety) and the monitoring of all health care activities (traceability). Information analysts need methods to conceptualize clinical information systems that provide actors with individual benefits and guide behavioural changes. A methodology is proposed to elicit and structure users' requirements using a process-oriented analysis, and it is applied to the field of blood transfusion. An object-oriented data model of a process has been defined in order to identify its main components: activity, sub-process, resources, constrains, guidelines, parameters and indicators. Although some aspects of activity, such as "where", "what else", and "why" are poorly represented by the data model alone, this method of requirement elicitation fits the dynamic of data input for the process to be traced. A hierarchical representation of hospital activities has to be found for this approach to be generalised within the organisation, for the processes to be interrelated, and for their characteristics to be shared.

Eliciting and Representing High-Level Knowledge Requirements to Discover Ecological Knowledge in Flower-Visiting Data

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Observations of individual organisms (data) can be combined with expert ecological knowledge of species, especially causal knowledge, to model and extract from flower–visiting data useful information about behavioral interactions between insect and plant organisms, such as nectar foraging and pollen transfer. We describe and evaluate a method to elicit and represent such expert causal knowledge of behavioral ecology, and discuss the potential for wider application of this method to the design of knowledge-based systems for knowledge discovery in biodiversity and ecosystem informatics. PMID:27851814

Control over the processing of the opponent's gaze direction in basketball experts.

PubMed

Weigelt, Matthias; Güldenpenning, Iris; Steggemann-Weinrich, Yvonne; Alhaj Ahmad Alaboud, Mustafa; Kunde, Wilfried

2017-06-01

Basketball players' responses to an opposing players' pass direction are typically delayed when the opposing player gazes in another than the pass direction. Here, we studied the role of basketball expertise on this, the so-called head-fake effect, in three groups of participants (basketball experts, soccer players, and non-athletes). The specific focus was on the dependency of the head-fake effect on previous fake experience as an index of control over the processing of task-irrelevant gaze information. Whereas (overall) the head-fake effect was of similar size in all expertise groups, preceding fake experience removed the head-fake effect in basketball players, but not in non-experts. Accordingly, basketball expertise allows for higher levels of control over the processing of task-irrelevant gaze information.

Short-term leprosy forecasting from an expert opinion survey

PubMed Central

Deiner, Michael S.; Worden, Lee; Rittel, Alex; Ackley, Sarah F.; Liu, Fengchen; Blum, Laura; Scott, James C.; Lietman, Thomas M.

2017-01-01

We conducted an expert survey of leprosy (Hansen’s Disease) and neglected tropical disease experts in February 2016. Experts were asked to forecast the next year of reported cases for the world, for the top three countries, and for selected states and territories of India. A total of 103 respondents answered at least one forecasting question. We elicited lower and upper confidence bounds. Comparing these results to regression and exponential smoothing, we found no evidence that any forecasting method outperformed the others. We found evidence that experts who believed it was more likely to achieve global interruption of transmission goals and disability reduction goals had higher error scores for India and Indonesia, but lower for Brazil. Even for a disease whose epidemiology changes on a slow time scale, forecasting exercises such as we conducted are simple and practical. We believe they can be used on a routine basis in public health. PMID:28813531

Information/Knowledge Acquisition Methods for Decision Support Systems and Expert Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Heng-Li

1995-01-01

Compares information requirement-elicitation (IRE) methods for decision support systems (DSS) with knowledge acquisition (KA) methods for expert systems (ES) development. The definition and architectures of ES and DSS are compared and the systems' development cycles and IRE/KA methods are discussed. Differences are noted between ES and DSS…

The Different Inhibition of Return (IOR) Effects of Emergency Managerial Experts and Novices: An Event-Related Potentials Study

PubMed Central

Cao, Rong; Wu, Lü; Wang, Shuzhen

2017-01-01

Inhibition of return (IOR) is an important effect of attention. However, the IOR of emergency managerial experts is unknown. By employing emergency and natural scene pictures in expert-novice paradigm, the present study explored the neural activity underlying the IOR effects for emergency managerial experts and novices. In behavioral results, there were no differences of IOR effects between novices and emergency managerial experts, while the event-related potentials (ERPs) results were different between novices and experts. In Experiment 1 (novice group), ERPs results showed no any IOR was robust at both stimulus-onset asynchrony (SOA) of 200 ms and 400 ms. In Experiment 2 (expert group), ERPs results showed an enhanced N2 at SOA of 200 ms and attenuated P3 at cued location in the right parietal lobe and adjacent brain regions than uncued location at SOA of 200 ms. The findings of the two experiments showed that, relative to the novices, IOR for the emergency managerial experts was robust, and dominated in the right parietal lobe and adjacent brain regions, suggesting more flexible attentional processing and higher visual search efficiency of the emergency managerial experts. The findings indicate that the P3, possible N2, over the right parietal lobe and adjacent brain regions are the biological indicators for IOR elicited by post-cued emergency pictures for emergency managerial experts. PMID:28588459

Explainable expert systems: A research program in information processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paris, Cecile L.

1993-01-01

Our work in Explainable Expert Systems (EES) had two goals: to extend and enhance the range of explanations that expert systems can offer, and to ease their maintenance and evolution. As suggested in our proposal, these goals are complementary because they place similar demands on the underlying architecture of the expert system: they both require the knowledge contained in a system to be explicitly represented, in a high-level declarative language and in a modular fashion. With these two goals in mind, the Explainable Expert Systems (EES) framework was designed to remedy limitations to explainability and evolvability that stem from related fundamental flaws in the underlying architecture of current expert systems.

Cancer risk elicitation and communication: lessons from the psychology of risk perception.

PubMed

Klein, William M P; Stefanek, Michael E

2007-01-01

Cancer risk perceptions are a key predictor of risk-reduction practices, health behaviors, and processing of cancer information. Nevertheless, patients and the general public (as well as health care providers) exhibit a number of errors and biases in the way they think about risk, such that their risk perceptions and decisions deviate greatly from those prescribed by normative decision models and by experts in risk assessment. For example, people are more likely to engage in screening behaviors such as mammography when faced with loss-based messages than gain-framed messages, and they often ignore the base rate of a given disease when assessing their own risk of obtaining this disease. In this article, we review many of the psychological processes that underlie risk perception and discuss how these processes lead to such deviations. Among these processes are difficulties with use of numerical information (innumeracy), cognitive processes (eg, use of time-saving heuristics), motivational factors (eg, loss and regret aversion), and emotion. We conclude with suggestions for future research in the area, as well as implications for improving the elicitation and communication of personal cancer risk.

Expert stakeholder attitudes and support for alternative water sources in a groundwater depleted region.

PubMed

Boyer, Treavor H; Overdevest, Christine; Christiansen, Lisa; Ishii, Stephanie K L

2012-10-15

The main objectives of this research were to quantify the risks/benefits and impacts of alternative water sources (AWSs) as perceived by expert stakeholders and to evaluate the overall support for multiple AWSs by expert stakeholders. The St. Johns River (SJR) basin, FL, USA was chosen as a case study for AWSs because it is a fresh groundwater depleted region and there are ongoing activities related to water supply planning. Expert stakeholders included federal, state, and local governments, public utilities, consulting engineering and industry, and environmental and social non-governmental organizations. AWSs under consideration in the SJR basin include surface water, desalination, water reclamation, and water conservation. A two-phase research approach was followed that focused on expert stakeholders. First, an elicitation study was used to identify salient beliefs about AWSs. Open-ended questions were asked about the risks/benefits of AWSs in terms of the three pillars of sustainability: ecological, economic, and human health impacts. Second, an online survey was constructed using beliefs identified during the elicitation study. The online survey was used to quantify attitudes toward and overall support for AWSs. The salient beliefs of expert stakeholders were dominated by the ecological pillar of sustainability. The support of expert stakeholders for AWSs, from least favorable to most favorable, was surface water withdrawals

Eliciting interval beliefs: An experimental study

PubMed Central

Peeters, Ronald; Wolk, Leonard

2017-01-01

In this paper we study the interval scoring rule as a mechanism to elicit subjective beliefs under varying degrees of uncertainty. In our experiment, subjects forecast the termination time of a time series to be generated from a given but unknown stochastic process. Subjects gradually learn more about the underlying process over time and hence the true distribution over termination times. We conduct two treatments, one with a high and one with a low volatility process. We find that elicited intervals are better when subjects are facing a low volatility process. In this treatment, participants learn to position their intervals almost optimally over the course of the experiment. This is in contrast with the high volatility treatment, where subjects, over the course of the experiment, learn to optimize the location of their intervals but fail to provide the optimal length. PMID:28380020

Design Features in Games for Health: Disciplinary and Interdisciplinary Expert Perspectives.

PubMed

Kelley, Christina; Wilcox, Lauren; Ng, Wendy; Schiffer, Jade; Hammer, Jessica

2017-06-01

Games for health (G4H) aim to improve health outcomes and encourage behavior change. While existing theoretical frameworks describe features of both games and health interventions, there has been limited systematic investigation into how disciplinary and interdisciplinary stakeholders understand design features in G4H. We recruited 18 experts from the fields of game design, behavioral health, and games for health, and prompted them with 16 sample games. Applying methods including open card sorting and triading, we elicited themes and features (e.g., real-world interaction, game mechanics) around G4H. We found evidence of conceptual differences suggesting that a G4H perspective is not simply the sum of game and health perspectives. At the same time, we found evidence of convergence in stakeholder views, including areas where game experts provided insights about health and vice versa. We discuss how this work can be applied to provide conceptual tools, improve the G4H design process, and guide approaches to encoding G4H-related data for large-scale empirical analysis.

Design Features in Games for Health: Disciplinary and Interdisciplinary Expert Perspectives

PubMed Central

Kelley, Christina; Wilcox, Lauren; Ng, Wendy; Schiffer, Jade; Hammer, Jessica

2017-01-01

Games for health (G4H) aim to improve health outcomes and encourage behavior change. While existing theoretical frameworks describe features of both games and health interventions, there has been limited systematic investigation into how disciplinary and interdisciplinary stakeholders understand design features in G4H. We recruited 18 experts from the fields of game design, behavioral health, and games for health, and prompted them with 16 sample games. Applying methods including open card sorting and triading, we elicited themes and features (e.g., real-world interaction, game mechanics) around G4H. We found evidence of conceptual differences suggesting that a G4H perspective is not simply the sum of game and health perspectives. At the same time, we found evidence of convergence in stakeholder views, including areas where game experts provided insights about health and vice versa. We discuss how this work can be applied to provide conceptual tools, improve the G4H design process, and guide approaches to encoding G4H–related data for large-scale empirical analysis. PMID:28868523

Expert system training and control based on the fuzzy relation matrix

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ren, Jie; Sheridan, T. B.

1991-01-01

Fuzzy knowledge, that for which the terms of reference are not crisp but overlapped, seems to characterize human expertise. This can be shown from the fact that an experienced human operator can control some complex plants better than a computer can. Proposed here is fuzzy theory to build a fuzzy expert relation matrix (FERM) from given rules or/and examples, either in linguistic terms or in numerical values to mimic human processes of perception and decision making. The knowledge base is codified in terms of many implicit fuzzy rules. Fuzzy knowledge thus codified may also be compared with explicit rules specified by a human expert. It can also provide a basis for modeling the human operator and allow comparison of what a human operator says to what he does in practice. Two experiments were performed. In the first, control of liquid in a tank, demonstrates how the FERM knowledge base is elicited and trained. The other shows how to use a FERM, build up from linguistic rules, and to control an inverted pendulum without a dynamic model.

ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

The Viewpoints of Students and Evaluation Experts About Performance Processes of Faculty Member Evaluation at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, 2014.

PubMed

Ghahrani, Nassim; Balaghafari, Azita; Aligolbandi, Kobra; Vahedi, Mohammad; Siamian, Hasan

2015-06-01

One of the most common ways used in most of the countries and Iran to determine the status of teacher training is the evaluation by students. The most common method of evaluation is the survey questionnaire, the content of a number of questions about educational activities provided to the students. The researchers plan to evaluate the students' and experts' performances at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences on the process of evaluating the performance of teachers, they examined in 2014. This study surveys the students and experts in the evaluation of faculty members' performance process. The study subjects were 3904 students and 37 evaluation expert of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. Using Cochran sampling formula of 350 students through proportional stratified random sampling were selected. The experts' viewpoint, method was used. Data collection tools consisted of 14 questions with answers Yes, or, I don't know. Descriptive Statistical analysis of the data and chi-square test was performed. From total of 350 students, 346 and the entire 37 evaluations expert participated in this study. Most of the students, 80 (23.12%) and the largest number of experts, 8 (21.62%) were from Sari Allied Medical Sciences Faculty. Most of the demographic information about gender were, 255 female students (74.56%) and 29 female experts (78.37%). In most age groups of students, 188 (55.62 percent) were in the category of 18 to 20 years, and the experts, 19 (51.35%) were in the category of 22 and 31 years. Most students, 232 of them (70.95%) were in semester 2 and 4. Most experts, 20 (54.05 percent) were under 10 years of work experience. The comparison between the views of students and experts in the evaluation process between the schools of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari School of Nursing and Midwifery, there was difference between the opinions of experts and students (p-value=0.01. It showed 86.7% student and 33.3% of experts is satisfied with the

Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: expert beliefs.

PubMed

MacDonald, Jacqueline Anne; Small, Mitchell J; Morgan, M G

2008-08-01

This article reports on a study to quantify expert beliefs about the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Some 1,976 sites at closed military bases in the United States are contaminated with UXO and are slated for cleanup, at an estimated cost of $15-140 billion. Because no available technology can guarantee 100% removal of UXO, information about explosion probability is needed to assess the residual risks of civilian reuse of closed military bases and to make decisions about how much to invest in cleanup. This study elicited probability distributions for the chance of UXO explosion from 25 experts in explosive ordnance disposal, all of whom have had field experience in UXO identification and deactivation. The study considered six different scenarios: three different types of UXO handled in two different ways (one involving children and the other involving construction workers). We also asked the experts to rank by sensitivity to explosion 20 different kinds of UXO found at a case study site at Fort Ord, California. We found that the experts do not agree about the probability of UXO explosion, with significant differences among experts in their mean estimates of explosion probabilities and in the amount of uncertainty that they express in their estimates. In three of the six scenarios, the divergence was so great that the average of all the expert probability distributions was statistically indistinguishable from a uniform (0, 1) distribution-suggesting that the sum of expert opinion provides no information at all about the explosion risk. The experts' opinions on the relative sensitivity to explosion of the 20 UXO items also diverged. The average correlation between rankings of any pair of experts was 0.41, which, statistically, is barely significant (p= 0.049) at the 95% confidence level. Thus, one expert's rankings provide little predictive information about another's rankings. The lack of consensus among experts suggests that empirical studies

Health risk assessment for nanoparticles: A case for using expert judgment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kandlikar, Milind; Ramachandran, Gurumurthy; Maynard, Andrew; Murdock, Barbara; Toscano, William A.

2007-01-01

consensus and/or disagreement between experts on different parts of the exposure-response paradigm. This can be done by eliciting judgments from a wide range of experts on different parts of the risk causal chain. We also use examples to illustrate how studying expert consensus/disagreement helps in research prioritization and budget allocation exercises. The expert elicitation can be repeated over the course of several years, over which time, the state of scientific knowledge will also improve and uncertainties may possibly reduce. Results from expert the elicitation exercise can be used by risk managers or managers of funding agencies as a tool for research prioritization.

Inverting faces elicits sensitivity to race on the N170 component: a cross-cultural study.

PubMed

Vizioli, Luca; Foreman, Kay; Rousselet, Guillaume A; Caldara, Roberto

2010-01-29

Human beings are natural experts at processing faces, with some notable exceptions. Same-race faces are better recognized than other-race faces: the so-called other-race effect (ORE). Inverting faces impairs recognition more than for any other inverted visual object: the so-called face inversion effect (FIE). Interestingly, the FIE is stronger for same- compared to other-race faces. At the electrophysiological level, inverted faces elicit consistently delayed and often larger N170 compared to upright faces. However, whether the N170 component is sensitive to race is still a matter of ongoing debate. Here we investigated the N170 sensitivity to race in the framework of the FIE. We recorded EEG from Western Caucasian and East Asian observers while presented with Western Caucasian, East Asian and African American faces in upright and inverted orientations. To control for potential confounds in the EEG signal that might be evoked by the intrinsic and salient differences in the low-level properties of faces from different races, we normalized their amplitude-spectra, luminance and contrast. No differences on the N170 were observed for upright faces. Critically, inverted same-race faces lead to greater recognition impairment and elicited larger N170 amplitudes compared to inverted other-race faces. Our results indicate a finer-grained neural tuning for same-race faces at early stages of processing in both groups of observers.

User needs elicitation via analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A case study on a Computed Tomography (CT) scanner.

PubMed

Pecchia, Leandro; Martin, Jennifer L; Ragozzino, Angela; Vanzanella, Carmela; Scognamiglio, Arturo; Mirarchi, Luciano; Morgan, Stephen P

2013-01-05

The rigorous elicitation of user needs is a crucial step for both medical device design and purchasing. However, user needs elicitation is often based on qualitative methods whose findings can be difficult to integrate into medical decision-making. This paper describes the application of AHP to elicit user needs for a new CT scanner for use in a public hospital. AHP was used to design a hierarchy of 12 needs for a new CT scanner, grouped into 4 homogenous categories, and to prepare a paper questionnaire to investigate the relative priorities of these. The questionnaire was completed by 5 senior clinicians working in a variety of clinical specialisations and departments in the same Italian public hospital. Although safety and performance were considered the most important issues, user needs changed according to clinical scenario. For elective surgery, the five most important needs were: spatial resolution, processing software, radiation dose, patient monitoring, and contrast medium. For emergency, the top five most important needs were: patient monitoring, radiation dose, contrast medium control, speed run, spatial resolution. AHP effectively supported user need elicitation, helping to develop an analytic and intelligible framework of decision-making. User needs varied according to working scenario (elective versus emergency medicine) more than clinical specialization. This method should be considered by practitioners involved in decisions about new medical technology, whether that be during device design or before deciding whether to allocate budgets for new medical devices according to clinical functions or according to hospital department.

Geriatric Assessment-Guided Care Processes for Older Adults: A Delphi Consensus of Geriatric Oncology Experts.

PubMed

Mohile, Supriya Gupta; Velarde, Carla; Hurria, Arti; Magnuson, Allison; Lowenstein, Lisa; Pandya, Chintan; O'Donovan, Anita; Gorawara-Bhat, Rita; Dale, William

2015-09-01

Structured care processes that provide a framework for how oncologists can incorporate geriatric assessment (GA) into clinical practice could improve outcomes for vulnerable older adults with cancer, a growing population at high risk of toxicity from cancer treatment. We sought to obtain consensus from an expert panel on the use of GA in clinical practice and to develop algorithms of GA-guided care processes. The Delphi technique, a well-recognized structured and reiterative process to reach consensus, was used. Participants were geriatric oncology experts who attended NIH-funded U13 or Cancer and Aging Research Group conferences. Consensus was defined as an interquartile range of 2 or more units, or 66.7% or greater, selecting a utility/helpfulness rating of 7 or greater on a 10-point Likert scale. For nominal data, consensus was defined as agreement among 66.7% or more of the group. From 33 invited, 30 participants completed all 3 rounds. Most experts (75%) used GA in clinical care, and the remainder were involved in geriatric oncology research. The panel met consensus that "all patients aged 75 years or older and those who are younger with age-related health concerns" should undergo GA and that all domains (function, physical performance, comorbidity/polypharmacy, cognition, nutrition, psychological status, and social support) should be included. Consensus was met for how GA could guide nononcologic interventions and cancer treatment decisions. Algorithms for GA-guided care processes were developed. This Delphi investigation of geriatric oncology experts demonstrated that GA should be performed for older patients with cancer to guide care processes. Copyright © 2015 by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.

Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

1976-01-01

A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

Eliciting User Requirements Using Appreciative Inquiry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gonzales, Carol Kernitzki

2010-01-01

Many software development projects fail because they do not meet the needs of users, are over-budget, and abandoned. To address this problem, the user requirements elicitation process was modified based on principles of Appreciative Inquiry. Appreciative Inquiry, commonly used in organizational development, aims to build organizations, processes,…

Teacher Knowledge for Active-Learning Instruction: Expert-Novice Comparison Reveals Differences.

PubMed

Auerbach, A J; Higgins, M; Brickman, P; Andrews, T C

2018-01-01

Active-learning strategies can improve science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) undergraduates' abilities to learn fundamental concepts and skills. However, the results instructors achieve vary substantially. One explanation for this is that instructors commonly implement active learning differently than intended. An important factor affecting how instructors implement active learning is knowledge of teaching and learning. We aimed to discover knowledge that is important to effective active learning in large undergraduate courses. We developed a lesson-analysis instrument to elicit teacher knowledge, drawing on the theoretical construct of teacher noticing. We compared the knowledge used by expert ( n = 14) and novice ( n = 29) active-learning instructors as they analyzed lessons. Experts and novices differed in what they noticed, with experts more commonly considering how instructors hold students accountable, topic-specific student difficulties, whether the instructor elicited and responded to student thinking, and opportunities students had to generate their own ideas and work. Experts were also better able to support their lesson analyses with reasoning. This work provides foundational knowledge for the future design of preparation and support for instructors adopting active learning. Improving teacher knowledge will improve the implementation of active learning, which will be necessary to widely realize the potential benefits of active learning in undergraduate STEM. © 2018 A. J. Auerbach et al. CBE—Life Sciences Education © 2018 The American Society for Cell Biology. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). It is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

An Image Retrieval and Processing Expert System for the World Wide Web

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez, Ricardo; Rondon, Angelica; Bruno, Maria I.; Vasquez, Ramon

1998-01-01

This paper presents a system that is being developed in the Laboratory of Applied Remote Sensing and Image Processing at the University of P.R. at Mayaguez. It describes the components that constitute its architecture. The main elements are: a Data Warehouse, an Image Processing Engine, and an Expert System. Together, they provide a complete solution to researchers from different fields that make use of images in their investigations. Also, since it is available to the World Wide Web, it provides remote access and processing of images.

Process consistency in models: The importance of system signatures, expert knowledge, and process complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hrachowitz, M.; Fovet, O.; Ruiz, L.; Euser, T.; Gharari, S.; Nijzink, R.; Freer, J.; Savenije, H. H. G.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.

2014-09-01

Hydrological models frequently suffer from limited predictive power despite adequate calibration performances. This can indicate insufficient representations of the underlying processes. Thus, ways are sought to increase model consistency while satisfying the contrasting priorities of increased model complexity and limited equifinality. In this study, the value of a systematic use of hydrological signatures and expert knowledge for increasing model consistency was tested. It was found that a simple conceptual model, constrained by four calibration objective functions, was able to adequately reproduce the hydrograph in the calibration period. The model, however, could not reproduce a suite of hydrological signatures, indicating a lack of model consistency. Subsequently, testing 11 models, model complexity was increased in a stepwise way and counter-balanced by "prior constraints," inferred from expert knowledge to ensure a model which behaves well with respect to the modeler's perception of the system. We showed that, in spite of unchanged calibration performance, the most complex model setup exhibited increased performance in the independent test period and skill to better reproduce all tested signatures, indicating a better system representation. The results suggest that a model may be inadequate despite good performance with respect to multiple calibration objectives and that increasing model complexity, if counter-balanced by prior constraints, can significantly increase predictive performance of a model and its skill to reproduce hydrological signatures. The results strongly illustrate the need to balance automated model calibration with a more expert-knowledge-driven strategy of constraining models.

Domain specificity versus expertise: factors influencing distinct processing of faces.

PubMed

Carmel, David; Bentin, Shlomo

2002-02-01

To explore face specificity in visual processing, we compared the role of task-associated strategies and expertise on the N170 event-related potential (ERP) component elicited by human faces with the ERPs elicited by cars, birds, items of furniture, and ape faces. In Experiment 1, participants performed a car monitoring task and an animacy decision task. In Experiment 2, participants monitored human faces while faces of apes were the distracters. Faces elicited an equally conspicuous N170, significantly larger than the ERPs elicited by non-face categories regardless of whether they were ignored or had an equal status with other categories (Experiment 1), or were the targets (in Experiment 2). In contrast, the negative component elicited by cars during the same time range was larger if they were targets than if they were not. Furthermore, unlike the posterior-temporal distribution of the N170, the negative component elicited by cars and its modulation by task were more conspicuous at occipital sites. Faces of apes elicited an N170 that was similar in amplitude to that elicited by the human face targets, albeit peaking 10 ms later. As our participants were not ape experts, this pattern indicates that the N170 is face-specific, but not specie-specific, i.e. it is elicited by particular face features regardless of expertise. Overall, these results demonstrate the domain specificity of the visual mechanism implicated in processing faces, a mechanism which is not influenced by either task or expertise. The processing of other objects is probably accomplished by a more general visual processor, which is sensitive to strategic manipulations and attention.

The Viewpoints of Students and Evaluation Experts About Performance Processes of Faculty Member Evaluation at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, 2014

PubMed Central

Ghahrani, Nassim; Balaghafari, Azita; Aligolbandi, Kobra; Vahedi, Mohammad; Siamian, Hasan

2015-01-01

Background and purpose: One of the most common ways used in most of the countries and Iran to determine the status of teacher training is the evaluation by students. The most common method of evaluation is the survey questionnaire, the content of a number of questions about educational activities provided to the students. The researchers plan to evaluate the students’ and experts’ performances at Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences on the process of evaluating the performance of teachers, they examined in 2014. Materials and methods: This study surveys the students and experts in the evaluation of faculty members’ performance process. The study subjects were 3904 students and 37 evaluation expert of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. Using Cochran sampling formula of 350 students through proportional stratified random sampling were selected. The experts’ viewpoint, method was used. Data collection tools consisted of 14 questions with answers Yes, or, I don’t know. Descriptive Statistical analysis of the data and chi-square test was performed. Results: From total of 350 students, 346 and the entire 37 evaluations expert participated in this study. Most of the students, 80 (23.12%) and the largest number of experts, 8 (21.62%) were from Sari Allied Medical Sciences Faculty. Most of the demographic information about gender were, 255 female students (74.56%) and 29 female experts (78.37%). In most age groups of students, 188 (55.62 percent) were in the category of 18 to 20 years, and the experts, 19 (51.35%) were in the category of 22 and 31 years. Most students, 232 of them (70.95%) were in semester 2 and 4. Most experts, 20 (54.05 percent) were under 10 years of work experience. The comparison between the views of students and experts in the evaluation process between the schools of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari School of Nursing and Midwifery, there was difference between the opinions of experts and students (p-value=0

Artificial intelligence, expert systems, computer vision, and natural language processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gevarter, W. B.

1984-01-01

An overview of artificial intelligence (AI), its core ingredients, and its applications is presented. The knowledge representation, logic, problem solving approaches, languages, and computers pertaining to AI are examined, and the state of the art in AI is reviewed. The use of AI in expert systems, computer vision, natural language processing, speech recognition and understanding, speech synthesis, problem solving, and planning is examined. Basic AI topics, including automation, search-oriented problem solving, knowledge representation, and computational logic, are discussed.

Global priorities for research and the relative importance of different research outcomes: an international Delphi survey of malaria research experts.

PubMed

Mulligan, Jo-Ann; Conteh, Lesong

2016-12-06

As global research investment increases, attention inevitably turns to assessing and measuring the outcomes and impact from research programmes. Research can have many different outcomes such as producing advances in scientific knowledge, building research capacity and, ultimately, health and broader societal benefits. The aim of this study was to test the use of a Delphi methodology as a way of gathering views from malaria research experts on research priorities and eliciting relative valuations of the different types of health research impact. An international Delphi survey of 60 malaria research experts was used to understand views on research outcomes and priorities within malaria and across global health more widely. The study demonstrated the application of the Delphi technique to eliciting views on malaria specific research priorities, wider global health research priorities and the values assigned to different types of research impact. In terms of the most important past research successes, the development of new anti-malarial drugs and insecticide-treated bed nets were rated as the most important. When asked about research priorities for future funding, respondents ranked tackling emerging drug and insecticide resistance the highest. With respect to research impact, the panel valued research that focuses on health and health sector benefits and informing policy and product development. Contributions to scientific knowledge, although highly valued, came lower down the ranking, suggesting that efforts to move research discoveries to health products and services are valued more highly than pure advances in scientific knowledge. Although the Delphi technique has been used to elicit views on research questions in global health this was the first time it has been used to assess how a group of research experts value or rank different types of research impact. The results suggest it is feasible to inject the views of a key stakeholder group into the research

Acquiring Expertise and Cognitive Skills in the Process of Constructing an Expert System: A Preliminary Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lai, Kwok-Wing

This study investigated the educational implications of having a group of 17 first-year New Zealand nursing students develop a medical expert system. Goals of the study were to determine whether, in the process of developing the expert system, the learners could: (1) acquire a more in-depth understanding of the specific subject domain under study…

Counter-regulating on the Internet: Threat elicits preferential processing of positive information.

PubMed

Greving, Hannah; Sassenberg, Kai; Fetterman, Adam

2015-09-01

The Internet is a central source of information. It is increasingly used for information search in self-relevant domains (e.g., health). Self-relevant topics are also associated with specific emotions and motivational states. For example, individuals may fear serious illness and feel threatened. Thus far, the impact of threat has received little attention in Internet-based research. The current studies investigated how threat influences Internet search. Threat is known to elicit the preferential processing of positive information. The self-directed nature of Internet search should particularly provide opportunities for such processing behavior. We predicted that during Internet search, more positive information would be processed (i.e., allocated more attention to) and more positive knowledge would be acquired under threat than in a control condition. Three experiments supported this prediction: Under threat, attention is directed more to positive web pages (Study 1) and positive links (Study 2), and more positive information is acquired (Studies 1 and 3) than in a control condition. Notably, the effect on knowledge acquisition was mediated by the effect on attention allocation during an actual Internet search (Study 1). Thus, Internet search under threat leads to selective processing of positive information and dampens threatened individuals' negative affect. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Development of an instructional expert system for hole drilling processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al-Mutawa, Souhaila; Srinivas, Vijay; Moon, Young Bai

1990-01-01

An expert system which captures the expertise of workshop technicians in the drilling domain was developed. The expert system is aimed at novice technicians who know how to operate the machines but have not acquired the decision making skills that are gained with experience. This paper describes the domain background and the stages of development of the expert system.

Getting Inside the Expert's Head: An Analysis of Physician Cognitive Processes During Trauma Resuscitations.

PubMed

White, Matthew R; Braund, Heather; Howes, Daniel; Egan, Rylan; Gegenfurtner, Andreas; van Merrienboer, Jeroen J G; Szulewski, Adam

2018-04-23

Crisis resource management skills are integral to leading the resuscitation of a critically ill patient. Despite their importance, crisis resource management skills (and their associated cognitive processes) have traditionally been difficult to study in the real world. The objective of this study was to derive key cognitive processes underpinning expert performance in resuscitation medicine, using a new eye-tracking-based video capture method during clinical cases. During an 18-month period, a sample of 10 trauma resuscitations led by 4 expert trauma team leaders was analyzed. The physician team leaders were outfitted with mobile eye-tracking glasses for each case. After each resuscitation, participants were debriefed with a modified cognitive task analysis, based on a cued-recall protocol, augmented by viewing their own first-person perspective eye-tracking video from the clinical encounter. Eye-tracking technology was successfully applied as a tool to aid in the qualitative analysis of expert performance in a clinical setting. All participants stated that using these methods helped uncover previously unconscious aspects of their cognition. Overall, 5 major themes were derived from the interviews: logistic awareness, managing uncertainty, visual fixation behaviors, selective attendance to information, and anticipatory behaviors. The novel approach of cognitive task analysis augmented by eye tracking allowed the derivation of 5 unique cognitive processes underpinning expert performance in leading a resuscitation. An understanding of these cognitive processes has the potential to enhance educational methods and to create new assessment modalities of these previously tacit aspects of expertise in this field. Copyright © 2018 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A demonstration of expert systems applications in transportation engineering : volume I, transportation engineers and expert systems.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1987-01-01

Expert systems, a branch of artificial-intelligence studies, is introduced with a view to its relevance in transportation engineering. Knowledge engineering, the process of building expert systems or transferring knowledge from human experts to compu...

Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care.

PubMed

McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

Discovering the knowledge creation process of an expert group in women-friendly policy: The policy case of Seoul City.

PubMed

Oh, Young Sam; Nam, SungHee; Kim, Yuna

2016-01-01

This research explores how expert knowledge is created in the process of women-friendly policy making, based on actor network theory (ANT). To address this purpose, this study uses the "Women's Happiness in the City of Seoul" policy initiated by the local government of Seoul as one example of policy development. Research findings demonstrate that knowledge creation in expert groups followed the four stages suggested by ANT. In addition, this study found that various types of knowledge emerged from individual experts. This research elucidates the process of knowledge creation and its meanings for women-friendly policy.

Expert system application for prioritizing preventive actions for shift work: shift expert.

PubMed

Esen, Hatice; Hatipoğlu, Tuğçen; Cihan, Ahmet; Fiğlali, Nilgün

2017-09-19

Shift patterns, work hours, work arrangements and worker motivations have increasingly become key factors for job performance. The main objective of this article is to design an expert system that identifies the negative effects of shift work and prioritizes mitigation efforts according to their importance in preventing these negative effects. The proposed expert system will be referred to as the shift expert. A thorough literature review is conducted to determine the effects of shift work on workers. Our work indicates that shift work is linked to demographic variables, sleepiness and fatigue, health and well-being, and social and domestic conditions. These parameters constitute the sections of a questionnaire designed to focus on 26 important issues related to shift work. The shift expert is then constructed to provide prevention advice at the individual and organizational levels, and it prioritizes this advice using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model, which considers comparison matrices provided by users during the prioritization process. An empirical study of 61 workers working on three rotating shifts is performed. After administering the questionnaires, the collected data are analyzed statistically, and then the shift expert produces individual and organizational recommendations for these workers.

Causality Assessment in Drug-Induced Liver Injury Using a Structured Expert Opinion Process: Comparison to the Roussel-Uclaf Causality Assessment Method

PubMed Central

Rockey, Don C.; Seeff, Leonard B.; Rochon, James; Freston, James; Chalasani, Naga; Bonacini, Maurizio; Fontana, Robert J.; Hayashi, Paul H.

2011-01-01

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is largely a diagnosis of exclusion and is therefore challenging. The US Drug-Induced Liver Injury Network (DILIN) prospective study used two methods to assess DILI causality: a structured expert opinion process and the Roussel-Uclaf Causality Assessment Method (RUCAM). Causality assessment focused on detailed clinical and laboratory data from patients with suspected DILI. The adjudication process used standardized numerical and descriptive definitions and scored cases as definite, highly likely, probable, possible, or unlikely. Results of the structured expert opinion procedure were compared with those derived by the RUCAM approach. Among 250 patients with suspected DILI, the expert opinion adjudication process scored 78 patients (31%) as definite, 102 (41%) as highly likely, 37 (15%) as probable, 25 (10%) as possible, and 8 (3%) as unlikely. Among 187 enrollees who had received a single implicated drug, initial complete agreement was reached for 50 (27%) with the expert opinion process and for 34 (19%) with a five-category RUCAM scale (P = 0.08), and the two methods demonstrated a modest correlation with each other (Spearman's r = 0.42, P = 0.0001). Importantly, the RUCAM approach substantially shifted the causality likelihood toward lower probabilities in comparison with the DILIN expert opinion process. Conclusion The structured DILIN expert opinion process produced higher agreement rates and likelihood scores than RUCAM in assessing causality, but there was still considerable interobserver variability in both. Accordingly, a more objective, reliable, and reproducible means of assessing DILI causality is still needed. PMID:20512999

Development of the Paris definition of early Crohn's disease for disease-modification trials: results of an international expert opinion process.

PubMed

Peyrin-Biroulet, Laurent; Billioud, Vincent; D'Haens, Geert; Panaccione, Remo; Feagan, Brian; Panés, Julian; Danese, Silvio; Schreiber, Stefan; Ogata, Haruhiko; Hibi, Toshifumi; Higgins, Peter D R; Beaugerie, Laurent; Chowers, Yehuda; Louis, Edouard; Steinwurz, Flávio; Reinisch, Walter; Rutgeerts, Paul; Colombel, Jean-Frédéric; Travis, Simon; Sandborn, William J

2012-12-01

We report the findings and outputs of an international expert opinion process to develop a definition of early Crohn's disease (CD) that could be used in future disease-modification trials. Nineteen experts on inflammatory bowel diseases held an international expert opinion meeting to discuss and agree on a definition for early CD to be used in disease-modification trials. The process included literature searches for the relevant basic-science and clinical evidence. A published preliminary definition of early CD was used as the basis for development of a proposed definition that was discussed at the expert opinion meeting. The participants then derived a final definition, based on best current knowledge, that it is hoped will be of practical use in disease-modification trials in CD.

Using XML and XSLT for flexible elicitation of mental-health risk knowledge.

PubMed

Buckingham, C D; Ahmed, A; Adams, A E

2007-03-01

Current tools for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems require assessors to make high-level judgements based on clinical experience. This paper describes how new technologies can enhance qualitative research methods to identify lower-level cues underlying these judgements, which can be collected by people without a specialist mental-health background. Content analysis of interviews with 46 multidisciplinary mental-health experts exposed the cues and their interrelationships, which were represented by a mind map using software that stores maps as XML. All 46 mind maps were integrated into a single XML knowledge structure and analysed by a Lisp program to generate quantitative information about the numbers of experts associated with each part of it. The knowledge was refined by the experts, using software developed in Flash to record their collective views within the XML itself. These views specified how the XML should be transformed by XSLT, a technology for rendering XML, which resulted in a validated hierarchical knowledge structure associating patient cues with risks. Changing knowledge elicitation requirements were accommodated by flexible transformations of XML data using XSLT, which also facilitated generation of multiple data-gathering tools suiting different assessment circumstances and levels of mental-health knowledge.

The use of concept maps during knowledge elicitation in ontology development processes – the nutrigenomics use case

PubMed Central

Castro, Alexander Garcia; Rocca-Serra, Philippe; Stevens, Robert; Taylor, Chris; Nashar, Karim; Ragan, Mark A; Sansone, Susanna-Assunta

2006-01-01

Background Incorporation of ontologies into annotations has enabled 'semantic integration' of complex data, making explicit the knowledge within a certain field. One of the major bottlenecks in developing bio-ontologies is the lack of a unified methodology. Different methodologies have been proposed for different scenarios, but there is no agreed-upon standard methodology for building ontologies. The involvement of geographically distributed domain experts, the need for domain experts to lead the design process, the application of the ontologies and the life cycles of bio-ontologies are amongst the features not considered by previously proposed methodologies. Results Here, we present a methodology for developing ontologies within the biological domain. We describe our scenario, competency questions, results and milestones for each methodological stage. We introduce the use of concept maps during knowledge acquisition phases as a feasible transition between domain expert and knowledge engineer. Conclusion The contributions of this paper are the thorough description of the steps we suggest when building an ontology, example use of concept maps, consideration of applicability to the development of lower-level ontologies and application to decentralised environments. We have found that within our scenario conceptual maps played an important role in the development process. PMID:16725019

Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

2016-05-01

Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert

Processes in construction of failure management expert systems from device design information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Lance, Nick

1987-01-01

This paper analyzes the tasks and problem solving methods used by an engineer in constructing a failure management expert system from design information about the device to te diagnosed. An expert test engineer developed a trouble-shooting expert system based on device design information and experience with similar devices, rather than on specific expert knowledge gained from operating the device or troubleshooting its failures. The construction of the expert system was intensively observed and analyzed. This paper characterizes the knowledge, tasks, methods, and design decisions involved in constructing this type of expert system, and makes recommendations concerning tools for aiding and automating construction of such systems.

Reflecting on the use of photo elicitation with children.

PubMed

Whiting, Lisa S

2015-01-01

To reflect on the use of photo elicitation as a data collection method when conducting research with primary school age children (nine to 11 years). There is recognition that children feel an affinity with the visual medium; as a result, visual methods can be useful when conducting research with children. Photo elicitation is one such method, but there has been little discussion of its use with primary school children within a health context. This paper considers the main issues that researchers should consider. This paper draws on a research study conducted by the author that used an ethnographic approach and photo elicitation to identify the assets underpinning children's wellbeing. A reflective discussion is used to highlight issues relating to the use of photo elicitation to collect data from primary school children. Photo elicitation is not without its challenges: it creates additional ethical considerations, and can be more time-consuming and expensive. However, children value the opportunity to be involved in research and have their opinions sought, and photo elicitation provides a method of collecting data that is appropriate for children's developmental and cognitive maturational stages. Photo elicitation can be a positive experience for children, and one that is not only fun and engaging, but that is also empowering and valuing of their contributions. Research that uses photo elicitation needs to be carefully planned to ensure that the study is supported appropriately. The visual process can offer a unique insight into children's lives that allows health professionals to deepen their understanding of children's experiences.

Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) quality assurance (QA)/data accounting (DA) expert systems - Transition from prototypes to operational systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basile, Lisa

1988-01-01

The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historical records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) Quality Assurance (QA)/Data Accounting (DA) expert systems: Transition from prototypes to operational systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basile, Lisa

1988-01-01

The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historial records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

Teaching Evaluations and Comments of Pre-Service Music Teachers regarding Expert and Novice Choral Conductors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Christopher M.; Price, Harry E.; Schroeder, Linda K.

2009-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to determine if pre-service music educators could discriminate between novice and expert choral directors irrespective of the proficiency of the choral ensemble. A secondary purpose was to compare study results elicited in the USA with those from participants in Europe, South America and Asia. Previous research…

Expert networks in CLIPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hruska, S. I.; Dalke, A.; Ferguson, J. J.; Lacher, R. C.

1991-01-01

Rule-based expert systems may be structurally and functionally mapped onto a special class of neural networks called expert networks. This mapping lends itself to adaptation of connectionist learning strategies for the expert networks. A parsing algorithm to translate C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) rules into a network of interconnected assertion and operation nodes has been developed. The translation of CLIPS rules to an expert network and back again is illustrated. Measures of uncertainty similar to those rules in MYCIN-like systems are introduced into the CLIPS system and techniques for combining and hiring nodes in the network based on rule-firing with these certainty factors in the expert system are presented. Several learning algorithms are under study which automate the process of attaching certainty factors to rules.

Task-Oriented, Naturally Elicited Speech (TONE) Database for the Force Requirements Expert System, Hawaii (FRESH)

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-09-01

Group Subgroup Command and control; Computational linguistics; expert system voice recognition; man- machine interface; U.S. Government 19 Abstract...simulates the characteristics of FRESH on a smaller scale. This study assisted NOSC in developing a voice-recognition, man- machine interface that could...scale. This study assisted NOSC in developing a voice-recogni- tion, man- machine interface that could be used with TONE and upgraded at a later date

Automated interviews on clinical case reports to elicit directed acyclic graphs.

PubMed

Luciani, Davide; Stefanini, Federico M

2012-05-01

Setting up clinical reports within hospital information systems makes it possible to record a variety of clinical presentations. Directed acyclic graphs (Dags) offer a useful way of representing causal relations in clinical problem domains and are at the core of many probabilistic models described in the medical literature, like Bayesian networks. However, medical practitioners are not usually trained to elicit Dag features. Part of the difficulty lies in the application of the concept of direct causality before selecting all the causal variables of interest for a specific patient. We designed an automated interview to tutor medical doctors in the development of Dags to represent their understanding of clinical reports. Medical notions were analyzed to find patterns in medical reasoning that can be followed by algorithms supporting the elicitation of causal Dags. Clinical relevance was defined to help formulate only relevant questions by driving an expert's attention towards variables causally related to nodes already inserted in the graph. Key procedural features of the proposed interview are described by four algorithms. The automated interview comprises questions on medical notions, phrased in medical terms. The first elicitation session produces questions concerning the patient's chief complaints and the outcomes related to diseases serving as diagnostic hypotheses, their observable manifestations and risk factors. The second session focuses on questions that refine the initial causal paths by considering syndromes, dysfunctions, pathogenic anomalies, biases and effect modifiers. A case study concerning a gastro-enterological problem and one dealing with an infected patient illustrate the output produced by the algorithms, depending on the answers provided by the doctor. The proposed elicitation framework is characterized by strong consistency with medical background and by a progressive introduction of relevant medical topics. Revision and testing of the

Visualising community: using participant-driven photo-elicitation for research and application

Treesearch

Paul M. Van Auken; Svein J. Frisvoll; Susan I. Stewart

2010-01-01

Despite a contemporary socio-culture revolving around cultural consumption of imagery, metaphors, representations and "gaze", photo-elicitation is a rarely used method for social scientists and planners to acquire knowledge. In this paper, we discuss participant-driven photo-elicitation, a process in which participant photos are paired with in-depth...

Expert scientific judgment and cancer risk assessment: a pilot study of pharmacokinetic data.

PubMed

Hawkins, N C; Graham, J D

1988-12-01

When high-dose tumor data are extrapolated to low doses, it is typically assumed that the dose of a carcinogen delivered to target cells is proportional to the dose administered to test animals, even at exposure levels below the experimental range. Since pharmacokinetic data are becoming available that in some cases question the validity of this assumption, risk assessors must decide whether to maintain the standard assumption. A pilot study of formaldehyde is reported that was undertaken to demonstrate how expert scientific judgment can help guide a controversial risk assessment where pharmacokinetic data are considered inconclusive. Eight experts on pharmacokinetic data were selected by a formal procedure, and each was interviewed personally using a structured interview protocol. The results suggest that expert scientific opinion is polarized in this case, a situation that risk assessors can respond to with a range of risk characterizations considered biologically plausible by the experts. Convergence of expert opinion is likely in this case of several specific research strategies ar executed in a competent fashion. Elicitation of expert scientific judgment is a promising vehicle for evaluating the quality of pharmacokinetic data, expressing uncertainty in risk assessment, and fashioning a research agenda that offers possible forging of scientific consensus.

ELICIT: An alternative imprecise weight elicitation technique for use in multi-criteria decision analysis for healthcare.

PubMed

Diaby, Vakaramoko; Sanogo, Vassiki; Moussa, Kouame Richard

2016-01-01

In this paper, the readers are introduced to ELICIT, an imprecise weight elicitation technique for multicriteria decision analysis for healthcare. The application of ELICIT consists of two steps: the rank ordering of evaluation criteria based on decision-makers' (DMs) preferences using the principal component analysis; and the estimation of criteria weights and their descriptive statistics using the variable interdependent analysis and the Monte Carlo method. The application of ELICIT is illustrated with a hypothetical case study involving the elicitation of weights for five criteria used to select the best device for eye surgery. The criteria were ranked from 1-5, based on a strict preference relationship established by the DMs. For each criterion, the deterministic weight was estimated as well as the standard deviation and 95% credibility interval. ELICIT is appropriate in situations where only ordinal DMs' preferences are available to elicit decision criteria weights.

Time course of brain activation elicited by basic emotions.

PubMed

Hot, Pascal; Sequeira, Henrique

2013-11-13

Whereas facial emotion recognition protocols have shown that each discrete emotion has a specific time course of brain activation, there is no electrophysiological evidence to support these findings for emotional induction by complex pictures. Our objective was to specify the differences between the time courses of brain activation elicited by feelings of happiness and, with unpleasant pictures, by feelings of disgust and sadness. We compared event-related potentials (ERPs) elicited by the watching of high-arousing pictures from the International Affective Picture System, selected to induce specific emotions. In addition to a classical arousal effect on late positive components, we found specific ERP patterns for each emotion in early temporal windows (<200 ms). Disgust was the first emotion to be associated with different brain processing after 140 ms, whereas happiness and sadness differed in ERPs elicited at the frontal and central sites after 160 ms. Our findings highlight the limits of the classical averaging of ERPs elicited by different emotions inside the same valence and suggest that each emotion could elicit a specific temporal pattern of brain activation, similar to those observed with emotional face recognition.

Expert systems for superalloy studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

1990-01-01

There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

DOEpatents

Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

2004-11-30

A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

Pre-Service Teachers' Modelling Processes through Engagement with Model Eliciting Activities with a Technological Tool

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Daher, Wajeeh M.; Shahbari, Juhaina Awawdeh

2015-01-01

Engaging mathematics students with modelling activities helps them learn mathematics meaningfully. This engagement, in the case of model eliciting activities, helps the students elicit mathematical models by interpreting real-world situation in mathematical ways. This is especially true when the students utilize technology to build the models.…

ELICIT: An alternative imprecise weight elicitation technique for use in multi-criteria decision analysis for healthcare

PubMed Central

Diaby, Vakaramoko; Sanogo, Vassiki; Moussa, Kouame Richard

2015-01-01

Objective In this paper, the readers are introduced to ELICIT, an imprecise weight elicitation technique for multicriteria decision analysis for healthcare. Methods The application of ELICIT consists of two steps: the rank ordering of evaluation criteria based on decision-makers’ (DMs) preferences using the principal component analysis; and the estimation of criteria weights and their descriptive statistics using the variable interdependent analysis and the Monte Carlo method. The application of ELICIT is illustrated with a hypothetical case study involving the elicitation of weights for five criteria used to select the best device for eye surgery. Results The criteria were ranked from 1–5, based on a strict preference relationship established by the DMs. For each criterion, the deterministic weight was estimated as well as the standard deviation and 95% credibility interval. Conclusions ELICIT is appropriate in situations where only ordinal DMs’ preferences are available to elicit decision criteria weights. PMID:26361235

Application of machine learning and expert systems to Statistical Process Control (SPC) chart interpretation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shewhart, Mark

1991-01-01

Statistical Process Control (SPC) charts are one of several tools used in quality control. Other tools include flow charts, histograms, cause and effect diagrams, check sheets, Pareto diagrams, graphs, and scatter diagrams. A control chart is simply a graph which indicates process variation over time. The purpose of drawing a control chart is to detect any changes in the process signalled by abnormal points or patterns on the graph. The Artificial Intelligence Support Center (AISC) of the Acquisition Logistics Division has developed a hybrid machine learning expert system prototype which automates the process of constructing and interpreting control charts.

Developing an expert panel process to refine health outcome definitions in observational data.

PubMed

Fox, Brent I; Hollingsworth, Joshua C; Gray, Michael D; Hollingsworth, Michael L; Gao, Juan; Hansen, Richard A

2013-10-01

Drug safety surveillance using observational data requires valid adverse event, or health outcome of interest (HOI) measurement. The objectives of this study were to develop a method to review HOI definitions in claims databases using (1) web-based digital tools to present de-identified patient data, (2) a systematic expert panel review process, and (3) a data collection process enabling analysis of concepts-of-interest that influence panelists' determination of HOI. De-identified patient data were presented via an interactive web-based dashboard to enable case review and determine if specific HOIs were present or absent. Criteria for determining HOIs and their severity were provided to each panelist. Using a modified Delphi method, six panelist pairs independently reviewed approximately 200 cases across each of three HOIs (acute liver injury, acute kidney injury, and acute myocardial infarction) such that panelist pairs independently reviewed the same cases. Panelists completed an assessment within the dashboard for each case that included their assessment of the presence or absence of the HOI, HOI severity (if present), and data contributing to their decision. Discrepancies within panelist pairs were resolved during a consensus process. Dashboard development was iterative, focusing on data presentation and recording panelists' assessments. Panelists reported quickly learning how to use the dashboard. The assessment module was used consistently. The dashboard was reliable, enabling an efficient review process for panelists. Modifications were made to the dashboard and review process when necessary to facilitate case review. Our methods should be applied to other health outcomes of interest to further refine the dashboard and case review process. The expert review process was effective and was supported by the web-based dashboard. Our methods for case review and classification can be applied to future methods for case identification in observational data sources

Utilization of Expert Knowledge in a Multi-Objective Hydrologic Model Automatic Calibration Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quebbeman, J.; Park, G. H.; Carney, S.; Day, G. N.; Micheletty, P. D.

2016-12-01

Spatially distributed continuous simulation hydrologic models have a large number of parameters for potential adjustment during the calibration process. Traditional manual calibration approaches of such a modeling system is extremely laborious, which has historically motivated the use of automatic calibration procedures. With a large selection of model parameters, achieving high degrees of objective space fitness - measured with typical metrics such as Nash-Sutcliffe, Kling-Gupta, RMSE, etc. - can easily be achieved using a range of evolutionary algorithms. A concern with this approach is the high degree of compensatory calibration, with many similarly performing solutions, and yet grossly varying parameter set solutions. To help alleviate this concern, and mimic manual calibration processes, expert knowledge is proposed for inclusion within the multi-objective functions, which evaluates the parameter decision space. As a result, Pareto solutions are identified with high degrees of fitness, but also create parameter sets that maintain and utilize available expert knowledge resulting in more realistic and consistent solutions. This process was tested using the joint SNOW-17 and Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting method (SAC-SMA) within the Animas River basin in Colorado. Three different elevation zones, each with a range of parameters, resulted in over 35 model parameters simultaneously calibrated. As a result, high degrees of fitness were achieved, in addition to the development of more realistic and consistent parameter sets such as those typically achieved during manual calibration procedures.

Engaging communication experts in a Delphi process to identify patient behaviors that could enhance communication in medical encounters

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The communication literature currently focuses primarily on improving physicians' verbal and non-verbal behaviors during the medical interview. The Four Habits Model is a teaching and research framework for physician communication that is based on evidence linking specific communication behaviors with processes and outcomes of care. The Model conceptualizes basic communication tasks as "Habits" and describes the sequence of physician communication behaviors during the clinical encounter associated with improved outcomes. Using the Four Habits Model as a starting point, we asked communication experts to identify the verbal communication behaviors of patients that are important in outpatient encounters. Methods We conducted a 4-round Delphi process with 17 international experts in communication research, medical education, and health care delivery. All rounds were conducted via the internet. In round 1, experts reviewed a list of proposed patient verbal communication behaviors within the Four Habits Model framework. The proposed patient verbal communication behaviors were identified based on a review of the communication literature. The experts could: approve the proposed list; add new behaviors; or modify behaviors. In rounds 2, 3, and 4, they rated each behavior for its fit (agree or disagree) with a particular habit. After each round, we calculated the percent agreement for each behavior and provided these data in the next round. Behaviors receiving more than 70% of experts' votes (either agree or disagree) were considered as achieving consensus. Results Of the 14 originally-proposed patient verbal communication behaviors, the experts modified all but 2, and they added 20 behaviors to the Model in round 1. In round 2, they were presented with 59 behaviors and 14 options to remove specific behaviors for rating. After 3 rounds of rating, the experts retained 22 behaviors. This set included behaviors such as asking questions, expressing preferences, and

Learning from Experts: Fostering Extended Thinking in the Early Phases of the Design Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haupt, Grietjie

2015-01-01

Empirical evidence on the way in which expert designers from different domains cognitively connect their internal processes with external resources is presented in the context of an extended cognition model. The article focuses briefly on the main trends in the extended design cognition theory and in particular on recent trends in information…

Embedding Human Expert Cognition Into Autonomous UAS Trajectory Planning.

PubMed

Narayan, Pritesh; Meyer, Patrick; Campbell, Duncan

2013-04-01

This paper presents a new approach for the inclusion of human expert cognition into autonomous trajectory planning for unmanned aerial systems (UASs) operating in low-altitude environments. During typical UAS operations, multiple objectives may exist; therefore, the use of multicriteria decision aid techniques can potentially allow for convergence to trajectory solutions which better reflect overall mission requirements. In that context, additive multiattribute value theory has been applied to optimize trajectories with respect to multiple objectives. A graphical user interface was developed to allow for knowledge capture from a human decision maker (HDM) through simulated decision scenarios. The expert decision data gathered are converted into value functions and corresponding criteria weightings using utility additive theory. The inclusion of preferences elicited from HDM data within an automated decision system allows for the generation of trajectories which more closely represent the candidate HDM decision preferences. This approach has been demonstrated in this paper through simulation using a fixed-wing UAS operating in low-altitude environments.

Building the BIKE: Development and Testing of the Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witzig, Stephen B.; Rebello, Carina M.; Siegel, Marcelle A.; Freyermuth, Sharyn K.; Izci, Kemal; McClure, Bruce

2014-10-01

Identifying students' conceptual scientific understanding is difficult if the appropriate tools are not available for educators. Concept inventories have become a popular tool to assess student understanding; however, traditionally, they are multiple choice tests. International science education standard documents advocate that assessments should be reform based, contain diverse question types, and should align with instructional approaches. To date, no instrument of this type targeting student conceptions in biotechnology has been developed. We report here the development, testing, and validation of a 35-item Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE) that includes a mix of question types. The BIKE was designed to elicit student thinking and a variety of conceptual understandings, as opposed to testing closed-ended responses. The design phase contained nine steps including a literature search for content, student interviews, a pilot test, as well as expert review. Data from 175 students over two semesters, including 16 student interviews and six expert reviewers (professors from six different institutions), were used to validate the instrument. Cronbach's alpha on the pre/posttest was 0.664 and 0.668, respectively, indicating the BIKE has internal consistency. Cohen's kappa for inter-rater reliability among the 6,525 total items was 0.684 indicating substantial agreement among scorers. Item analysis demonstrated that the items were challenging, there was discrimination among the individual items, and there was alignment with research-based design principles for construct validity. This study provides a reliable and valid conceptual understanding instrument in the understudied area of biotechnology.

Capital Expert System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dowell, Laurie; Gary, Jack; Illingworth, Bill; Sargent, Tom

1987-05-01

Gathering information, necessary forms, and financial calculations needed to generate a "capital investment proposal" is an extremely complex and difficult process. The intent of the capital investment proposal is to ensure management that the proposed investment has been thoroughly investigated and will have a positive impact on corporate goals. Meeting this requirement typically takes four or five experts a total of 12 hours to generate a "Capital Package." A Capital Expert System was therefore developed using "Personal Consultant." The completed system is hybrid and as such does not depend solely on rules but incorporates several different software packages that communicate through variables and functions passed from one to another. This paper describes the use of expert system techniques, methodology in building the knowledge base, contexts, LISP functions, data base, and special challenges that had to be overcome to create this system. The Capital Expert System is the successful result of a unique integration of artificial intelligence with business accounting, financial forms generation, and investment proposal expertise.

Using the "Expert Performance Approach" as a Framework for Improving Understanding of Expert Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, A. Mark; Fawver, Bradley; Hodges, Nicola J.

2017-01-01

The expert performance approach, initially proposed by Ericsson and Smith (1991), is reviewed as a systematic framework for the study of "expert" learning. The need to develop representative tasks to capture learning is discussed, as is the need to employ process-tracing measures during acquisition to examine what actually changes during…

Sherlock Holmes: an expert's view of expertise.

PubMed

André, Didierjean; Fernand, Gobet

2008-02-01

In recent years, there has been an intense research effort to understand the cognitive processes and structures underlying expert behaviour. Work in different fields, including scientific domains, sports, games and mnemonics, has shown that there are vast differences in perceptual abilities between experts and novices, and that these differences may underpin other cognitive differences in learning, memory and problem solving. In this article, we evaluate the progress made in the last years through the eyes of an outstanding, albeit fictional, expert: Sherlock Holmes. We first use the Sherlock Holmes character to illustrate expert processes as described by current research and theories. In particular, the role of perception, as well as the nature and influence of expert knowledge, are all present in the description of Conan Doyle's hero. In the second part of the article, we discuss a number of issues that current research on expertise has barely addressed. These gaps include, for example, several forms of reasoning, the influence of emotions on cognition, and the effect of age on experts' knowledge and cognitive processes. Thus, although nearly 120-year-old, Conan Doyle's books show remarkable illustrations of expert behaviour, including the coverage of themes that have mostly been overlooked by current research.

Architecture For The Optimization Of A Machining Process In Real Time Through Rule-Based Expert System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serrano, Rafael; González, Luis Carlos; Martín, Francisco Jesús

2009-11-01

Under the project SENSOR-IA which has had financial funding from the Order of Incentives to the Regional Technology Centers of the Counsil of Innovation, Science and Enterprise of Andalusia, an architecture for the optimization of a machining process in real time through rule-based expert system has been developed. The architecture consists of an acquisition system and sensor data processing engine (SATD) from an expert system (SE) rule-based which communicates with the SATD. The SE has been designed as an inference engine with an algorithm for effective action, using a modus ponens rule model of goal-oriented rules.The pilot test demonstrated that it is possible to govern in real time the machining process based on rules contained in a SE. The tests have been done with approximated rules. Future work includes an exhaustive collection of data with different tool materials and geometries in a database to extract more precise rules.

Ask-the-expert: Active Learning Based Knowledge Discovery Using the Expert

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Das, Kamalika; Avrekh, Ilya; Matthews, Bryan; Sharma, Manali; Oza, Nikunj

2017-01-01

Often the manual review of large data sets, either for purposes of labeling unlabeled instances or for classifying meaningful results from uninteresting (but statistically significant) ones is extremely resource intensive, especially in terms of subject matter expert (SME) time. Use of active learning has been shown to diminish this review time significantly. However, since active learning is an iterative process of learning a classifier based on a small number of SME-provided labels at each iteration, the lack of an enabling tool can hinder the process of adoption of these technologies in real-life, in spite of their labor-saving potential. In this demo we present ASK-the-Expert, an interactive tool that allows SMEs to review instances from a data set and provide labels within a single framework. ASK-the-Expert is powered by an active learning algorithm for training a classifier in the backend. We demonstrate this system in the context of an aviation safety application, but the tool can be adopted to work as a simple review and labeling tool as well, without the use of active learning.

Ask-the-Expert: Active Learning Based Knowledge Discovery Using the Expert

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Das, Kamalika

2017-01-01

Often the manual review of large data sets, either for purposes of labeling unlabeled instances or for classifying meaningful results from uninteresting (but statistically significant) ones is extremely resource intensive, especially in terms of subject matter expert (SME) time. Use of active learning has been shown to diminish this review time significantly. However, since active learning is an iterative process of learning a classifier based on a small number of SME-provided labels at each iteration, the lack of an enabling tool can hinder the process of adoption of these technologies in real-life, in spite of their labor-saving potential. In this demo we present ASK-the-Expert, an interactive tool that allows SMEs to review instances from a data set and provide labels within a single framework. ASK-the-Expert is powered by an active learning algorithm for training a classifier in the back end. We demonstrate this system in the context of an aviation safety application, but the tool can be adopted to work as a simple review and labeling tool as well, without the use of active learning.

Evolving Regulatory Processes Used by Students and Experts in the Acquiring of Improvisational Skills: A Qualitative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Bruin, Leon R.

2018-01-01

The way an improviser practices is a vital and significant aspect to a musician's means and capacities of expression. Expert music performers utilize extensive self-regulatory processes involving planning, strategic development, and systemized approaches to learning and reflective practice. Scholars posit that these processes are constructivist…

The Sport Expert's Attention Superiority on Skill-related Scene Dynamic by the Activation of left Medial Frontal Gyrus: An ERP and LORETA Study.

PubMed

He, Mengyang; Qi, Changzhu; Lu, Yang; Song, Amanda; Hayat, Saba Z; Xu, Xia

2018-05-21

Extensive studies have shown that a sports expert is superior to a sports novice in visually perceptual-cognitive processes of sports scene information, however the attentional and neural basis of it has not been thoroughly explored. The present study examined whether a sport expert has the attentional superiority on scene information relevant to his/her sport skill, and explored what factor drives this superiority. To address this problem, EEGs were recorded as participants passively viewed sport scenes (tennis vs. non-tennis) and negative emotional faces in the context of a visual attention task, where the pictures of sport scenes or of negative emotional faces randomly followed the pictures with overlapping sport scenes and negative emotional faces. ERP results showed that for experts, the evoked potential of attentional competition elicited by the overlap of tennis scene was significantly larger than that evoked by the overlap of non-tennis scene, while this effect was absent for novices. The LORETA showed that the experts' left medial frontal gyrus (MFG) cortex was significantly more active as compared to the right MFG when processing the overlap of tennis scene, but the lateralization effect was not significant in novices. Those results indicate that experts have attentional superiority on skill-related scene information, despite intruding the scene through negative emotional faces that are prone to cause negativity bias toward their visual field as a strong distractor. This superiority is actuated by the activation of left MFG cortex and probably due to self-reference. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A novel expert system for objective masticatory efficiency assessment

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Most of the tools and diagnosis models of Masticatory Efficiency (ME) are not well documented or severely limited to simple image processing approaches. This study presents a novel expert system for ME assessment based on automatic recognition of mixture patterns of masticated two-coloured chewing gums using a combination of computational intelligence and image processing techniques. The hypotheses tested were that the proposed system could accurately relate specimens to the number of chewing cycles, and that it could identify differences between the mixture patterns of edentulous individuals prior and after complete denture treatment. This study enrolled 80 fully-dentate adults (41 females and 39 males, 25 ± 5 years of age) as the reference population; and 40 edentulous adults (21 females and 19 males, 72 ± 8.9 years of age) for the testing group. The system was calibrated using the features extracted from 400 samples covering 0, 10, 15, and 20 chewing cycles. The calibrated system was used to automatically analyse and classify a set of 160 specimens retrieved from individuals in the testing group in two appointments. The ME was then computed as the predicted number of chewing strokes that a healthy reference individual would need to achieve a similar degree of mixture measured against the real number of cycles applied to the specimen. The trained classifier obtained a Mathews Correlation Coefficient score of 0.97. ME measurements showed almost perfect agreement considering pre- and post-treatment appointments separately (κ ≥ 0.95). Wilcoxon signed-rank test showed that a complete denture treatment for edentulous patients elicited a statistically significant increase in the ME measurements (Z = -2.31, p < 0.01). We conclude that the proposed expert system proved able and reliable to accurately identify patterns in mixture and provided useful ME measurements. PMID:29385165

Knowledge Elicitation: Phase 1 Final Report. Volume 1

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-06-01

34 i.e., superficial features such as type of apparatus, while experts rely on basic principles of physics (e.g., conservation of energy ) and generic...process. This last part of the model would typically consist of descriptions of the impact of the process on one or more of the objects. Figure 3-4...goals. The elicitor is probing for an underlying mental model. 9. Expert: To kill him before he can take any action that would impact on our forces. 10

Ludic Elicitation: Using Games for Knowledge Elicitation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cao, Yan

2014-01-01

Knowledge elicitation from human beings is important for many fields, such as decision support systems, risk communication, and customer preference studying. Traditional approaches include observations, questionnaires, structured and semi-structured interviews, and group discussions. Many publications have been studying different techniques for a…

Neonatal nurse practitioner role transition: the process of reattaining expert status.

PubMed

Cusson, Regina M; Strange, Sally Nelson

2008-01-01

Neonatal nurse practitioners (NNPs) have managed care for high-risk hospitalized infants in the United States for over 30 years. The journey from being expert nurse to being novice NNP and then finally to being expert NNP is fraught with many challenges. This study used a qualitative descriptive design to describe advanced practice role transition among 70 NNPs. The data consisted of participants' written responses to open-ended questions. Four themes emerged that depicted a linear progression of the transition process from school preparation to beginning feelings in the new role and then development into a more confident practice. Theme 1: First impressions emphasized the ambivalence novice NNPs experienced regarding their preparedness for the role during a stressful and exciting adjustment period. Theme 2: The transition demonstrated the overwhelmingly similar feelings of anxiety, insecurity, exhaustion, and lack of confidence that plagued decision making. Theme 3: Making it as a real NNP indicated that the 1-year mark was a consistent, significant timeframe for feeling like a real NNP. Theme 4: The helpers and hinderers revealed the vulnerability of the novice NNPs to harsh criticism as well as the importance of support, especially from nurse colleagues. NNPs are a valuable resource; thus, enhancing transition is a worthy goal.

Prior Elicitation and Bayesian Analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial

PubMed Central

See, Craig W.; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Saravanan, Somu; Oldenburg, Catherine E.; Esterberg, Elizabeth J.; Ray, Kathryn J.; Glaser, Tanya S.; Tu, Elmer Y.; Zegans, Michael E.; McLeod, Stephen D.; Acharya, Nisha R.; Lietman, Thomas M.

2013-01-01

Purpose To elicit expert opinion on the use of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy in bacterial corneal ulcers. To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial (SCUT), using expert opinion as a prior probability. Methods The SCUT was a placebo-controlled trial assessing visual outcomes in patients receiving topical corticosteroids or placebo as adjunctive therapy for bacterial keratitis. Questionnaires were conducted at scientific meetings in India and North America to gauge expert consensus on the perceived benefit of corticosteroids as adjunct treatment. Bayesian analysis, using the questionnaire data as a prior probability and the primary outcome of SCUT as a likelihood, was performed. For comparison, an additional Bayesian analysis was performed using the results of the SCUT pilot study as a prior distribution. Results Indian respondents believed there to be a 1.21 Snellen line improvement, and North American respondents believed there to be a 1.24 line improvement with corticosteroid therapy. The SCUT primary outcome found a non-significant 0.09 Snellen line benefit with corticosteroid treatment. The results of the Bayesian analysis estimated a slightly greater benefit than did the SCUT primary analysis (0.19 lines verses 0.09 lines). Conclusion Indian and North American experts had similar expectations on the effectiveness of corticosteroids in bacterial corneal ulcers; that corticosteroids would markedly improve visual outcomes. Bayesian analysis produced results very similar to those produced by the SCUT primary analysis. The similarity in result is likely due to the large sample size of SCUT and helps validate the results of SCUT. PMID:23171211

Prior elicitation and Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial.

PubMed

See, Craig W; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Saravanan, Somu; Oldenburg, Catherine E; Esterberg, Elizabeth J; Ray, Kathryn J; Glaser, Tanya S; Tu, Elmer Y; Zegans, Michael E; McLeod, Stephen D; Acharya, Nisha R; Lietman, Thomas M

2012-12-01

To elicit expert opinion on the use of adjunctive corticosteroid therapy in bacterial corneal ulcers. To perform a Bayesian analysis of the Steroids for Corneal Ulcers Trial (SCUT), using expert opinion as a prior probability. The SCUT was a placebo-controlled trial assessing visual outcomes in patients receiving topical corticosteroids or placebo as adjunctive therapy for bacterial keratitis. Questionnaires were conducted at scientific meetings in India and North America to gauge expert consensus on the perceived benefit of corticosteroids as adjunct treatment. Bayesian analysis, using the questionnaire data as a prior probability and the primary outcome of SCUT as a likelihood, was performed. For comparison, an additional Bayesian analysis was performed using the results of the SCUT pilot study as a prior distribution. Indian respondents believed there to be a 1.21 Snellen line improvement, and North American respondents believed there to be a 1.24 line improvement with corticosteroid therapy. The SCUT primary outcome found a non-significant 0.09 Snellen line benefit with corticosteroid treatment. The results of the Bayesian analysis estimated a slightly greater benefit than did the SCUT primary analysis (0.19 lines verses 0.09 lines). Indian and North American experts had similar expectations on the effectiveness of corticosteroids in bacterial corneal ulcers; that corticosteroids would markedly improve visual outcomes. Bayesian analysis produced results very similar to those produced by the SCUT primary analysis. The similarity in result is likely due to the large sample size of SCUT and helps validate the results of SCUT.

Knowledge elicitation for an operator assistant system in process control tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boy, Guy A.

1988-01-01

A knowledge based system (KBS) methodology designed to study human machine interactions and levels of autonomy in allocation of process control tasks is presented. Users are provided with operation manuals to assist them in normal and abnormal situations. Unfortunately, operation manuals usually represent only the functioning logic of the system to be controlled. The user logic is often totally different. A method is focused on which illicits user logic to refine a KBS shell called an Operator Assistant (OA). If the OA is to help the user, it is necessary to know what level of autonomy gives the optimal performance of the overall man-machine system. For example, for diagnoses that must be carried out carefully by both the user and the OA, interactions are frequent, and processing is mostly sequential. Other diagnoses can be automated, in which the case the OA must be able to explain its reasoning in an appropriate level of detail. OA structure was used to design a working KBS called HORSES (Human Orbital Refueling System Expert System). Protocol analysis of pilots interacting with this system reveals that the a-priori analytical knowledge becomes more structured with training and the situation patterns more complex and dynamic. This approach can improve the a-priori understanding of human and automatic reasoning.

Ranking of options of real estate use by expert assessments mathematical processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lepikhina, O. Yu; Skachkova, M. E.; Mihaelyan, T. A.

2018-05-01

The article is devoted to the development of the real estate assessment concept. In conditions of multivariate using of the real estate method based on calculating, the integral indicator of each variant’s efficiency is proposed. In order to calculate weights of criteria of the efficiency expert method, Analytic hierarchy process and its mathematical support are used. The method allows fulfilling ranking of alternative types of real estate use in dependence of their efficiency. The method was applied for one of the land parcels located on Primorsky district in Saint Petersburg.

The neural organization of perception in chess experts.

PubMed

Krawczyk, Daniel C; Boggan, Amy L; McClelland, M Michelle; Bartlett, James C

2011-07-20

The human visual system responds to expertise, and it has been suggested that regions that process faces also process other objects of expertise including chess boards by experts. We tested whether chess and face processing overlap in brain activity using fMRI. Chess experts and novices exhibited face selective areas, but these regions showed no selectivity to chess configurations relative to other stimuli. We next compared neural responses to chess and to scrambled chess displays to isolate areas relevant to expertise. Areas within the posterior cingulate, orbitofrontal cortex, and right temporal cortex were active in this comparison in experts over novices. We also compared chess and face responses within the posterior cingulate and found this area responsive to chess only in experts. These findings indicate that the configurations in chess are not strongly processed by face-selective regions that are selective for faces in individuals who have expertise in both domains. Further, the area most consistently involved in chess did not show overlap with faces. Overall, these results suggest that expert visual processing may be similar at the level of recognition, but need not show the same neural correlates. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three CLIPS-based expert systems for solving engineering problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, W. J.; Luger, G. F.; Bretz, R. E.

1990-01-01

We have written three expert systems, using the CLIPS PC-based expert system shell. These three expert systems are rule based and are relatively small, with the largest containing slightly less than 200 rules. The first expert system is an expert assistant that was written to help users of the ASPEN computer code choose the proper thermodynamic package to use with their particular vapor-liquid equilibrium problem. The second expert system was designed to help petroleum engineers choose the proper enhanced oil recovery method to be used with a given reservoir. The effectiveness of each technique is highly dependent upon the reservoir conditions. The third expert system is a combination consultant and control system. This system was designed specifically for silicon carbide whisker growth. Silicon carbide whiskers are an extremely strong product used to make ceramic and metal composites. The manufacture of whiskers is a very complicated process. which to date. has defied a good mathematical model. The process was run by experts who had gained their expertise by trial and error. A system of rules was devised by these experts both for procedure setup and for the process control. In this paper we discuss the three problem areas of the design, development and evaluation of the CLIPS-based programs.

Expert explanations of honeybee losses in areas of extensive agriculture in France: Gaucho® compared with other supposed causal factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxim, L.; van der Sluijs, J. P.

2010-01-01

Debates on causality are at the core of controversies as regards environmental changes. The present paper presents a new method for analyzing controversies on causality in a context of social debate and the results of its empirical testing. The case study used is the controversy as regards the role played by the insecticide Gaucho®, compared with other supposed causal factors, in the substantial honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) losses reported to have occurred in France between 1994 and 2004. The method makes use of expert elicitation of the perceived strength of evidence regarding each of Bradford Hill's causality criteria, as regards the link between each of eight possible causal factors identified in attempts to explain each of five signs observed in honeybee colonies. These judgments are elicited from stakeholders and experts involved in the debate, i.e., representatives of Bayer Cropscience, of the Ministry of Agriculture, of the French Food Safety Authority, of beekeepers and of public scientists. We show that the intense controversy observed in confused and passionate public discourses is much less salient when the various arguments are structured using causation criteria. The contradictions between the different expert views have a triple origin: (1) the lack of shared definition and quantification of the signs observed in colonies; (2) the lack of specialist knowledge on honeybees; and (3) the strategic discursive practices associated with the lack of trust between experts representing stakeholders having diverging stakes in the case.

A microanalytic study of self-regulated learning processes of expert, non-expert, and at-risk science students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dibenedetto, Maria K.

2009-12-01

The present investigation sought to examine differences in the self-regulated learning processes and beliefs of students who vary in their level of expertise in science and to investigate if there are gender differences. Participants were 51 ethnically diverse 11th grade students from three parochial high schools consisting of 34 females and 17 males. Students were grouped as either expert, non-expert, or at-risk based on the school's classification. Students were provided with a short passage on tornados to read and study. The two achievement measures obtained were the Tornado Knowledge Test : ten short-answer questions and the Conceptual Model Test : a question which required the students to draw and describe the three sequential images of tornado development from the textual description of the three phases. A microanalytic methodology was used which consists of asking a series of questions aimed at assessing students' psychological behaviors, feelings, and thoughts in each of Zimmerman's three phases of self-regulation: forethought, performance, and reflection. These questions were asked of the students while they were engaged in learning. Two additional measures were obtained: the Rating Student Self-Regulated Learning Outcomes: A Teacher Scale (RSSRL) and the Self-Efficacy for Self-Regulated Learning (SELF). Analysis of variance, chi square analysis, and post hoc test results showed significant expertise differences, large effect sizes, and positive linear trends on most measures. Regarding gender, there were significant differences on only two measures. Correlational analyses also revealed significant relations among the self-regulatory subprocesses across the three phases. The microanalytic measures were combined across the three phases and entered into a regression formula to predict the students' scores on the Tornado Knowledge Test. These self-regulatory processes explained 77% of the variance in the Tornado Knowledge Test, which was a significant and

Expert system for web based collaborative CAE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Liang; Lin, Zusheng

2006-11-01

An expert system for web based collaborative CAE was developed based on knowledge engineering, relational database and commercial FEA (Finite element analysis) software. The architecture of the system was illustrated. In this system, the experts' experiences, theories and typical examples and other related knowledge, which will be used in the stage of pre-process in FEA, were categorized into analysis process and object knowledge. Then, the integrated knowledge model based on object-oriented method and rule based method was described. The integrated reasoning process based on CBR (case based reasoning) and rule based reasoning was presented. Finally, the analysis process of this expert system in web based CAE application was illustrated, and an analysis example of a machine tool's column was illustrated to prove the validity of the system.

A thematic analysis for how patients, prescribers, experts, and patient advocates view the prescription choice process.

PubMed

Schommer, Jon C; Worley, Marcia M; Kjos, Andrea L; Pakhomov, Serguei V S; Schondelmeyer, Stephen W

2009-06-01

Typically, patients are unaware of the cost consequences regarding prescribing decisions during their clinical encounter and rarely talk with their physicians about costs of prescription drugs. Prescription medications that are deemed by patients to be too costly when the costs become known after purchase are discontinued or used at suboptimal doses compared to prescription medications that are deemed to be worth the cost. To learn more about the prescription choice process from several viewpoints, the purpose of this study was to uncover and describe how patients, prescribers, experts, and patient advocates view the prescription choice process. Data were collected via 9 focus group interviews held between April 24 and July 31, 2007 (3 with patients, 3 with prescribers, 2 with experts, and 1 with patient advocates). The interviews were audiotaped and transcribed. The resulting text was analyzed in a descriptive and interpretive manner. Theme extraction was based on convergence and external divergence; that is, identified themes were internally consistent but distinct from one and another. To ensure quality and credibility of analysis, multiple analysts and multiple methods were used to provide a quality check on selective perception and blind interpretive bias that could occur through a single person doing all of the analysis or through employment of a single method. The findings revealed 5 overall themes related to the prescription choice process: (1) information, (2) relationship, (3) patient variation, (4) practitioner variation, and (5) role expectations. The results showed that patients, prescribers, experts, and patient advocates viewed the themes within differing contexts. It appears that the prescription choice process entails an interplay among information, relationship, patient variation, practitioner variation, and role expectations, with each viewed within different contexts by individuals engaged in such decision making.

Knowledge acquisition for a simple expert controller

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bieker, B.

1987-01-01

A method is presented for process control which has the properties of being incremental, cyclic and top-down. It is described on the basis of the development of an expert controller for a simple, but nonlinear control route. A quality comparison between expert controller and process operator shows the ability of the method for knowledge acquisition.

Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

DOEpatents

Reifman, Jaques; Wei, Thomas Y. C.

1995-01-01

A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis is an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach.

Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

DOEpatents

Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.

1995-08-15

A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis of an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach. 9 figs.

The nutrition advisor expert system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huse, Scott M.; Shyne, Scott S.

1991-01-01

The Nutrition Advisor Expert System (NAES) is an expert system written in the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS). NAES provides expert knowledge and guidance into the complex world of nutrition management by capturing the knowledge of an expert and placing it at the user's fingertips. Specifically, NAES enables the user to: (1) obtain precise nutrition information for food items; (2) perform nutritional analysis of meal(s), flagging deficiencies based upon the U.S. Recommended Daily Allowances; (3) predict possible ailments based upon observed nutritional deficiency trends; (4) obtain a top ten listing of food items for a given nutrient; and (5) conveniently upgrade the data base. An explanation facility for the ailment prediction feature is also provided to document the reasoning process.

Elicitation of Unstated Needs

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-17

what you can about requirements for a next generation laptop for the Home User that • attracts new customers • leverages existing customer loyalty ...Training © 2014 Carnegie Mellon University Traditional Requirements Elicitation Approaches Interviews of customers /users to elicit problems and usage...needs Inventory of problem reporting systems harboring customer complaints Solicitation of specification from customers /users to build a system

A demonstration of expert systems applications in transportation engineering : volume III, evaluation of the prototype expert system TRANZ.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1990-01-01

The validation and evaluation of an expert system for traffic control in highway work zones (TRANZ) is described. The stages in the evaluation process consisted of the following: revisit the experts, selectively distribute copies of TRANZ with docume...

Good Food, Bad Food, and White Rice: Understanding Child Feeding Using Visual-Narrative Elicitation.

PubMed

Wentworth, Chelsea

2017-01-01

Visual-narrative elicitation, a process combining photo elicitation and pile sorting in applied medical anthropology, sheds light on food consumption patterns in urban areas of Vanuatu where childhood malnutrition is a persistent problem. Groups of participants took photographs of the foods they feed their children, and the resources and barriers they encounter in accessing foodstuffs. This revealed how imported and local foods are assigned value as "good" or "bad" foods when contributing to dietary diversity and creating appropriate meals for children, particularly in the context of consuming white rice. The process of gathering and working with photographs illuminated the complex negotiations in which caregivers engaged when making food and nutritional choices for their children. At the nexus of visual and medical anthropology, the visual-narrative elicitation process yielded nuanced, comprehensive understandings of how caregivers value the various foods they feed their children.

The affective dimension of response elicitation data: a projective measure.

PubMed

Tibon, S; Blumberg, H H

2000-03-01

In this research, the Rorschach Affective Ratio, a measure for frequency of response elicitation, was used to examine the affective dimension of response elicitation data. The purpose of this study was to apply the Rorschach Affective Ratio to an examination of the psychodynamic roots of political behavior. This measure compares the number of responses to colored cards, considered as emotional stimuli, with those revealed by the other (black and white) cards of the test. Israeli undergraduates (N = 26) completed a questionnaire composed of 20 questions about peace. Participants who were more supportive of the peace process in the Middle East were found to have a lower Affective Ratio than those who were less supportive. This result suggests that measurable affective aspects may be as important as cognitive aspects of response elicitation in understanding an individual's political attitudes.

How Expert Clinicians Intuitively Recognize a Medical Diagnosis.

PubMed

Brush, John E; Sherbino, Jonathan; Norman, Geoffrey R

2017-06-01

Research has shown that expert clinicians make a medical diagnosis through a process of hypothesis generation and verification. Experts begin the diagnostic process by generating a list of diagnostic hypotheses using intuitive, nonanalytic reasoning. Analytic reasoning then allows the clinician to test and verify or reject each hypothesis, leading to a diagnostic conclusion. In this article, we focus on the initial step of hypothesis generation and review how expert clinicians use experiential knowledge to intuitively recognize a medical diagnosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating Classifier Accuracy Using Noisy Expert Labels

DTIC Science & Technology

estimators to real -world problems is limited. We applythe estimators to labels simulated from three models of the expert labeling process and also four real ...thatconditional dependence between experts negatively impacts estimator performance. On two of the real datasets, the estimatorsclearly outperformed the

Expert system application education project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

1988-01-01

Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

Brain-heart linear and nonlinear dynamics during visual emotional elicitation in healthy subjects.

PubMed

Valenza, G; Greco, A; Gentili, C; Lanata, A; Toschi, N; Barbieri, R; Sebastiani, L; Menicucci, D; Gemignani, A; Scilingo, E P

2016-08-01

This study investigates brain-heart dynamics during visual emotional elicitation in healthy subjects through linear and nonlinear coupling measures of EEG spectrogram and instantaneous heart rate estimates. To this extent, affective pictures including different combinations of arousal and valence levels, gathered from the International Affective Picture System, were administered to twenty-two healthy subjects. Time-varying maps of cortical activation were obtained through EEG spectral analysis, whereas the associated instantaneous heartbeat dynamics was estimated using inhomogeneous point-process linear models. Brain-Heart linear and nonlinear coupling was estimated through the Maximal Information Coefficient (MIC), considering EEG time-varying spectra and point-process estimates defined in the time and frequency domains. As a proof of concept, we here show preliminary results considering EEG oscillations in the θ band (4-8 Hz). This band, indeed, is known in the literature to be involved in emotional processes. MIC highlighted significant arousal-dependent changes, mediated by the prefrontal cortex interplay especially occurring at intermediate arousing levels. Furthermore, lower and higher arousing elicitations were associated to not significant brain-heart coupling changes in response to pleasant/unpleasant elicitations.

Effects of Expert and Non-expert Facilitators on the Small-Group Process and on Student Performance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Wayne K.; And Others

1992-01-01

Comparison of 21 faculty facilitators at the University of Michigan Medical School, with or without content expertise, during small-group teaching sessions in a medical school microbiology course found that students in groups led by content experts had higher levels of satisfaction and higher examination scores. Significant differences in…

An Expert System for Processing Uncorrelated Satellite Tracks

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-12-17

earthworms with much intellect e\\en though they routinely carry out this same function. One definition given artificial intelligence is "the study of mental...Networks: Benchmarking Studies ," Proceedings from the IEEE International Conference on Neural Networkv. pp. 64-65, 1988. 229 Lyddane, R., "Small...reverse if necessary and rdenqtl_ by block number, Field Group Subgroup Artificial Intelligence, Expert Systems, Neural Networks. Orbital Mechanics

Development of geriatric competencies for emergency medicine residents using an expert consensus process.

PubMed

Hogan, Teresita M; Losman, Eve D; Carpenter, Christopher R; Sauvigne, Karen; Irmiter, Cheryl; Emanuel, Linda; Leipzig, Rosanne M

2010-03-01

The emergency department (ED) visit rate for older patients exceeds that of all age groups other than infants. The aging population will increase elder ED patient utilization to 35% to 60% of all visits. Older patients can have complex clinical presentations and be resource-intensive. Evidence indicates that emergency physicians fail to provide consistent high-quality care for elder ED patients, resulting in poor clinical outcomes. The objective was to develop a consensus document, "Geriatric Competencies for Emergency Medicine Residents," by identified experts. This is a minimum set of behaviorally based performance standards that all residents should be able to demonstrate by completion of their residency training. This consensus-based process utilized an inductive, qualitative, multiphase method to determine the minimum geriatric competencies needed by emergency medicine (EM) residents. Assessments of face validity and reliability were used throughout the project. In Phase I, participants (n=363) identified 12 domains and 300 potential competencies. In Phase II, an expert panel (n=24) clustered the Phase I responses, resulting in eight domains and 72 competencies. In Phase III, the expert panel reduced the competencies to 26. In Phase IV, analysis of face validity and reliability yielded a 100% consensus for eight domains and 26 competencies. The domains identified were atypical presentation of disease; trauma, including falls; cognitive and behavioral disorders; emergent intervention modifications; medication management; transitions of care; pain management and palliative care; and effect of comorbid conditions. The Geriatric Competencies for EM Residents is a consensus document that can form the basis for EM residency curricula and assessment to meet the demands of our aging population. Copyright (c) 2010 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Development of Geriatric Competencies for Emergency Medicine Residents Using an Expert Consensus Process

PubMed Central

Hogan, Teresita M.; Losman, Eve D.; Carpenter, Christopher R.; Sauvigne, Karen; Irmiter, Cheryl; Emanuel, Linda; Leipzig, Rosanne M.

2011-01-01

Background The emergency department (ED) visit rate for older patients exceeds that of all age groups other than infants. The aging population will increase elder ED patient utilization to 35% to 60% of all visits. Older patients can have complex clinical presentations and be resource-intensive. Evidence indicates that emergency physicians fail to provide consistent high-quality care for elder ED patients, resulting in poor clinical outcomes. Objectives The objective was to develop a consensus document, “Geriatric Competencies for Emergency Medicine Residents,” by identified experts. This is a minimum set of behaviorally based performance standards that all residents should be able to demonstrate by completion of their residency training. Methods This consensus-based process utilized an inductive, qualitative, multiphase method to determine the minimum geriatric competencies needed by emergency medicine (EM) residents. Assessments of face validity and reliability were used throughout the project. Results In Phase I, participants (n = 363) identified 12 domains and 300 potential competencies. In Phase II, an expert panel (n = 24) clustered the Phase I responses, resulting in eight domains and 72 competencies. In Phase III, the expert panel reduced the competencies to 26. In Phase IV, analysis of face validity and reliability yielded a 100% consensus for eight domains and 26 competencies. The domains identified were atypical presentation of disease; trauma, including falls; cognitive and behavioral disorders; emergent intervention modifications; medication management; transitions of care; pain management and palliative care; and effect of comorbid conditions. Conclusions The Geriatric Competencies for EM Residents is a consensus document that can form the basis for EM residency curricula and assessment to meet the demands of our aging population. PMID:20370765

Process Consistency in Models: the Importance of System Signatures, Expert Knowledge and Process Complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hrachowitz, Markus; Fovet, Ophelie; Ruiz, Laurent; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Savenije, Hubert

2014-05-01

Hydrological models are frequently characterized by what is often considered to be adequate calibration performances. In many cases, however, these models experience a substantial uncertainty and performance decrease in validation periods, thus resulting in poor predictive power. Besides the likely presence of data errors, this observation can point towards wrong or insufficient representations of the underlying processes and their heterogeneity. In other words, right results are generated for the wrong reasons. Thus ways are sought to increase model consistency and to thereby satisfy the contrasting priorities of the need a) to increase model complexity and b) to limit model equifinality. In this study a stepwise model development approach is chosen to test the value of an exhaustive and systematic combined use of hydrological signatures, expert knowledge and readily available, yet anecdotal and rarely exploited, hydrological information for increasing model consistency towards generating the right answer for the right reasons. A simple 3-box, 7 parameter, conceptual HBV-type model, constrained by 4 calibration objective functions was able to adequately reproduce the hydrograph with comparatively high values for the 4 objective functions in the 5-year calibration period. However, closer inspection of the results showed a dramatic decrease of model performance in the 5-year validation period. In addition, assessing the model's skill to reproduce a range of 20 hydrological signatures including, amongst others, the flow duration curve, the autocorrelation function and the rising limb density, showed that it could not adequately reproduce the vast majority of these signatures, indicating a lack of model consistency. Subsequently model complexity was increased in a stepwise way to allow for more process heterogeneity. To limit model equifinality, increase in complexity was counter-balanced by a stepwise application of "realism constraints", inferred from expert

75 FR 76467 - Draft Concept for Government-Wide “ExpertNet” Platform and Process To Elicit Expert Public...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-08

... GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION [Docket 2010-0005; Sequence 14] Draft Concept for Government-Wide... Questions AGENCY: U.S. General Services Administration. ACTION: Notice; request for public comment. SUMMARY: With this notice, the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) requests input, comment, and ideas...

Skilful force control in expert pianists.

PubMed

Oku, Takanori; Furuya, Shinichi

2017-05-01

Dexterous object manipulation in skilful behaviours such as surgery, craft making, and musical performance involves fast, precise, and efficient control of force with the fingers. A challenge in playing musical instruments is the requirement of independent control of the magnitude and rate of force production, which typically vary in relation to loudness and tempo. However, it is unknown how expert musicians skilfully control finger force to elicit tones with a wide range of loudness and tempi. Here, we addressed this issue by comparing the variation of spatiotemporal characteristics of force during repetitive and simultaneous piano keystrokes in relation to the loudness and tempo between pianists and musically untrained individuals. While the peak key-descending velocity varied with loudness but not with tempo in both groups, the peak and impulse of the key-depressing force were smaller in pianists than in the non-musicians, specifically when eliciting loud tones, suggesting superior energetic efficiency in the trained individuals. The key-depressing force was more consistent across strikes in pianists than in the non-musicians at all loudness levels but only at slow tempi, confirming expertise-dependency of precise force control. A regression analysis demonstrated that individual differences in the keystroke rates when playing at the fastest tempo across the trained pianists were negatively associated with the force impulse during the key depression but not with the peak force only at the loudest tone. This suggests that rapid reductions of force following the key depression plays a role in considerably fast performance of repetitive piano keystrokes.

Photo-Elicitation and Visual Semiotics: A Unique Methodology for Studying Inclusion for Children with Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stockall, Nancy

2013-01-01

The methodology in this paper discusses the use of photographs as an elicitation strategy that can reveal the thinking processes of participants in a qualitatively rich manner. Photo-elicitation techniques combined with a Piercian semiotic perspective offer a unique method for creating a frame of action for later participant analysis. Illustrative…

“I see it now”: Using photo elicitation to understand chronic illness self-management

PubMed Central

Fritz, Heather; Lysack, Cathy

2018-01-01

Background How people integrate self-management into daily life remains underexamined, and such processes are difficult to elicit through traditional approaches used to understand human occupation. Purpose This paper will provide a brief overview of one visual research method, photo elicitation, that holds promise for studying self-management of health behaviours and will present findings from an analysis of how the use of photo elicitation interviews contributed additional insights into self-management beyond those generated from the data collected through the other methods used in the study. Method A qualitative, multiple-methods, multiple-case study was conducted with a purposive sample of 10 low-income women ages 40 to 64 with type 2 diabetes. Findings The photo elicitation interviews contributed insights beyond those generated from other study methods about how individuals viewed their self-management behaviours and how occupations changed across time. Implications Photo elicitation is a valuable research method for better understanding clients' chronic illness self-management practices. PMID:29898501

Nickel hydrogen battery expert system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiva, Sajjan G.

1991-01-01

The Hubble Telescope Battery Testbed at MSFC uses the Nickel Cadmium (NiCd) Battery Expert System (NICBES-2) which supports the evaluation of performance of Hubble Telescope spacecraft batteries and provides alarm diagnosis and action advice. NICBES-2 provides a reasoning system along with a battery domain knowledge base to achieve this battery health management function. An effort is summarized which was used to modify NICBES-2 to accommodate Nickel Hydrogen (NiH2) battery environment now in MSFC testbed. The NICBES-2 is implemented on a Sun Microsystem and is written in SunOS C and Quintus Prolog. The system now operates in a multitasking environment. NICBES-2 spawns three processes: serial port process (SPP); data handler process (DHP); and the expert system process (ESP) in order to process the telemetry data and provide the status and action advice. NICBES-2 performs orbit data gathering, data evaluation, alarm diagnosis and action advice and status and history display functions. The adaptation of NICBES-2 to work with NiH2 battery environment required modification to all of the three component processes.

Expert system prototype developments for NASA-KSC business and engineering applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ragusa, James M.; Gonzalez, Avelino J.

1988-01-01

Prototype expert systems developed for a variety of NASA projects in the business/management and engineering domains are discussed. Business-related problems addressed include an assistant for simulating launch vehicle processing, a plan advisor for the acquisition of automated data processing equipment, and an expert system for the identification of customer requirements. Engineering problems treated include an expert system for detecting potential ignition sources in LOX and gaseous-oxygen transportation systems and an expert system for hazardous-gas detection.

Expert System Development Methodology (ESDM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sary, Charisse; Gilstrap, Lewey; Hull, Larry G.

1990-01-01

The Expert System Development Methodology (ESDM) provides an approach to developing expert system software. Because of the uncertainty associated with this process, an element of risk is involved. ESDM is designed to address the issue of risk and to acquire the information needed for this purpose in an evolutionary manner. ESDM presents a life cycle in which a prototype evolves through five stages of development. Each stage consists of five steps, leading to a prototype for that stage. Development may proceed to a conventional development methodology (CDM) at any time if enough has been learned about the problem to write requirements. ESDM produces requirements so that a product may be built with a CDM. ESDM is considered preliminary because is has not yet been applied to actual projects. It has been retrospectively evaluated by comparing the methods used in two ongoing expert system development projects that did not explicitly choose to use this methodology but which provided useful insights into actual expert system development practices and problems.

Expert System for ASIC Imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Shri N.; Arshak, Khalil I.; McDonnell, Pearse; Boyce, Conor; Duggan, Andrew

1989-07-01

With the developments in the techniques of artificial intelligence over the last few years, development of advisory, scheduling and similar class of problems has become very convenient using tools such as PROLOG. In this paper an expert system has been described which helps lithographers and process engineers in several ways. The methodology used is to model each work station according to its input, output and control parameters, combine these work stations in a logical sequence based on past experience and work out process schedule for a job. In addition, all the requirements vis-a-vis a particular job parameters are converted into decision rules. One example is the exposure time, develop time for a wafer with different feature sizes would be different. This expert system has been written in Turbo Prolog. By building up a large number of rules, one can tune the program to any facility and use it for as diverse applications as advisory help, trouble shooting etc. Leitner (1) has described an advisory expert system that is being used at National Semiconductor. This system is quite different from the one being reported in the present paper. The approach is quite different for one. There is stress on job flow and process for another.

Experts bodies, experts minds: How physical and mental training shape the brain

PubMed Central

Debarnot, Ursula; Sperduti, Marco; Di Rienzo, Franck; Guillot, Aymeric

2014-01-01

Skill learning is the improvement in perceptual, cognitive, or motor performance following practice. Expert performance levels can be achieved with well-organized knowledge, using sophisticated and specific mental representations and cognitive processing, applying automatic sequences quickly and efficiently, being able to deal with large amounts of information, and many other challenging task demands and situations that otherwise paralyze the performance of novices. The neural reorganizations that occur with expertise reflect the optimization of the neurocognitive resources to deal with the complex computational load needed to achieve peak performance. As such, capitalizing on neuronal plasticity, brain modifications take place over time-practice and during the consolidation process. One major challenge is to investigate the neural substrates and cognitive mechanisms engaged in expertise, and to define “expertise” from its neural and cognitive underpinnings. Recent insights showed that many brain structures are recruited during task performance, but only activity in regions related to domain-specific knowledge distinguishes experts from novices. The present review focuses on three expertise domains placed across a motor to mental gradient of skill learning: sequential motor skill, mental simulation of the movement (motor imagery), and meditation as a paradigmatic example of “pure” mental training. We first describe results on each specific domain from the initial skill acquisition to expert performance, including recent results on the corresponding underlying neural mechanisms. We then discuss differences and similarities between these domains with the aim to identify the highlights of the neurocognitive processes underpinning expertise, and conclude with suggestions for future research. PMID:24847236

NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

1988-01-01

An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

Added value of experts' knowledge to improve a quantitative microbial exposure assessment model--Application to aseptic-UHT food products.

PubMed

Pujol, Laure; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Magras, Catherine; Albert, Isabelle; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

2015-10-15

In a previous study, a quantitative microbial exposure assessment (QMEA) model applied to an aseptic-UHT food process was developed [Pujol, L., Albert, I., Magras, C., Johnson, N. B., Membré, J. M. Probabilistic exposure assessment model to estimate aseptic UHT product failure rate. 2015 International Journal of Food Microbiology. 192, 124-141]. It quantified Sterility Failure Rate (SFR) associated with Bacillus cereus and Geobacillus stearothermophilus per process module (nine modules in total from raw material reception to end-product storage). Previously, the probabilistic model inputs were set by experts (using knowledge and in-house data). However, only the variability dimension was taken into account. The model was then improved using expert elicitation knowledge in two ways. First, the model was refined by adding the uncertainty dimension to the probabilistic inputs, enabling to set a second order Monte Carlo analysis. The eight following inputs, and their impact on SFR, are presented in detail in this present study: D-value for each bacteria of interest (B. cereus and G. stearothermophilus) associated with the inactivation model for the UHT treatment step, i.e., two inputs; log reduction (decimal reduction) number associated with the inactivation model for the packaging sterilization step for each bacterium and each part of the packaging (product container and sealing component), i.e., four inputs; and bacterial spore air load of the aseptic tank and the filler cabinet rooms, i.e., two inputs. Second, the model was improved by leveraging expert knowledge to develop further the existing model. The proportion of bacteria in the product which settled on surface of pipes (between the UHT treatment and the aseptic tank on one hand, and between the aseptic tank and the filler cabinet on the other hand) leading to a possible biofilm formation for each bacterium, was better characterized. It was modeled as a function of the hygienic design level of the aseptic

Eliciting design patterns for e-learning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retalis, Symeon; Georgiakakis, Petros; Dimitriadis, Yannis

2006-06-01

Design pattern creation, especially in the e-learning domain, is a highly complex process that has not been sufficiently studied and formalized. In this paper, we propose a systematic pattern development cycle, whose most important aspects focus on reverse engineering of existing systems in order to elicit features that are cross-validated through the use of appropriate, authentic scenarios. However, an iterative pattern process is proposed that takes advantage of multiple data sources, thus emphasizing a holistic view of the teaching learning processes. The proposed schema of pattern mining has been extensively validated for Asynchronous Network Supported Collaborative Learning (ANSCL) systems, as well as for other types of tools in a variety of scenarios, with promising results.

Career Counseling Process: A Qualitative Analysis of Experts' Cases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whiston, Susan C.; Lindeman, Dawn; Rahardja, Daryn; Reed, Jordan H.

2005-01-01

A consensual qualitative research methodology was used to analyze the career counseling cases of 12 noted vocational psychologists to identify common themes and factors. The findings indicated that the career counseling described by these experts often involved the same counseling or helping skills found in personal counseling or psychotherapy.…

Rank aggregation of local expert knowledge for conservation planning of the critically endangered saola.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Nicholas M; Van Duc, Luong

2017-06-01

There has been much recent interest in using local knowledge and expert opinion for conservation planning, particularly for hard-to-detect species. Although it is possible to ask for direct estimation of quantities such as population size, relative abundance is easier to estimate. However, an expert's knowledge is often geographically restricted relative to the area of interest. Combining (or aggregating) experts' assessments of relative abundance is difficult when each expert only knows a part of the area of interest. We used Google's PageRank algorithm to aggregate ranked abundance scores elicited from local experts through a rapid rural-appraisal method. We applied this technique to conservation planning for the saola (Pseudoryx nghetinhensis), a poorly known bovid. Near a priority landscape for the species, composed of 3 contiguous protected areas, we asked groups of local people to indicate relative abundances of saola and other species by placing beans on community maps. For each village, we used this information to rank areas within the knowledge area of that village for saola abundance. We used simulations to compare alternative methods to aggregate the rankings from the different villages. The best-performing method was then used to produce a single map of relative abundance across the entire landscape, an area larger than that known to any one village. This map has informed prioritization of surveys and conservation action in the continued absence of direct information about the saola. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

2016-09-01

Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Expert discovery. 3.31A Section 3.31A... PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Discovery; Compulsory Process § 3.31A Expert discovery. (a) The... later than 1 day after the close of fact discovery, meaning the close of discovery except for...

16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Expert discovery. 3.31A Section 3.31A... PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Discovery; Compulsory Process § 3.31A Expert discovery. (a) The... later than 1 day after the close of fact discovery, meaning the close of discovery except for...

16 CFR 3.31A - Expert discovery.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Expert discovery. 3.31A Section 3.31A... PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Discovery; Compulsory Process § 3.31A Expert discovery. (a) The... later than 1 day after the close of fact discovery, meaning the close of discovery except for...

Comparison of elicitation methods for moral and affective beliefs in the theory of planned behaviour.

PubMed

Dean, M; Arvola, A; Vassallo, M; Lähteenmäki, L; Raats, M M; Saba, A; Shepherd, R

2006-09-01

Although the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) has been applied successfully in the area of food choice, it has been criticized for its pure utilitarian approach to the factors determining behaviour. Despite the increase in predictive power of the model with added components such as affective attitude and moral and ethical concerns, in most studies the elicitation process still only addresses people's utilitarian beliefs about the behaviour with little attention paid to other aspects. This study compares the traditional method of elicitation of advantages and disadvantages with two other methods (word association and open-ended) in the elicitations of beliefs, attitudes and moral concerns in relation to the consumption of organic foods. Results show the traditional method to be best for eliciting cognitive beliefs, open-ended emotion task for eliciting emotional beliefs and open-ended beliefs task best for moral concerns. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed.

Practical problems in aggregating expert opinions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Booker, J.M.; Picard, R.R.; Meyer, M.A.

1993-11-01

Expert opinion is data given by a qualified person in response to a technical question. In these analyses, expert opinion provides information where other data are either sparse or non-existent. Improvements in forecasting result from the advantageous addition of expert opinion to observed data in many areas, such as meteorology and econometrics. More generally, analyses of large, complex systems often involve experts on various components of the system supplying input to a decision process; applications include such wide-ranging areas as nuclear reactor safety, management science, and seismology. For large or complex applications, no single expert may be knowledgeable enough aboutmore » the entire application. In other problems, decision makers may find it comforting that a consensus or aggregation of opinions is usually better than a single opinion. Many risk and reliability studies require a single estimate for modeling, analysis, reporting, and decision making purposes. For problems with large uncertainties, the strategy of combining as diverse a set of experts as possible hedges against underestimation of that uncertainty. Decision makers are frequently faced with the task of selecting the experts and combining their opinions. However, the aggregation is often the responsibility of an analyst. Whether the decision maker or the analyst does the aggregation, the input for it, such as providing weights for experts or estimating other parameters, is imperfect owing to a lack of omniscience. Aggregation methods for expert opinions have existed for over thirty years; yet many of the difficulties with their use remain unresolved. The bulk of these problem areas are summarized in the sections that follow: sensitivities of results to assumptions, weights for experts, correlation of experts, and handling uncertainties. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the sources of these problems and describe their effects on aggregation.« less

Photo-Elicitation: Reflexivity on Method, Analysis, and Graphic Portraits

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richard, Veronica M.; Lahman, Maria K. E.

2015-01-01

In this methodological discussion, the authors detail and reflect on the processes of using photo-elicitation interviewing as a way to align with positive qualitative methodologies, to gain access to participant beliefs and values, and to highlight participant voices through their choices of words and visuals. A review of the literature and an…

Efficient production of flavonoids in Fagopyrum tataricum hairy root cultures with yeast polysaccharide elicitation and medium renewal process

PubMed Central

Zhao, Jiang-Lin; Zou, Liang; Zhang, Cai-Qiong; Li, Yuan-Yuan; Peng, Lian-Xin; Xiang, Da-Bing; Zhao, Gang

2014-01-01

Background: Tartary buckwheat (Fagopyrum tataricum), an excellent edible and medicinal crop, has been widely used as a daily diet and traditional medicine for a long time. The major functional components of Fagopyrum tataricum have been demonstrated to be flavonoids (i.e. rutin and quercetin), which had notable andioxidant, antidiabetic, hypocholesterolemic and antitumor activities. Hairy root culture is a convenient and efficient plant tissue culture system for large scale production of bioactive metabolites. Objective: To enhance the functional flavonoids production in hairy root culture of F. tataricum. Materials and Methods: The elicitation treatment in combination with medium renewal strategy was applied for efficient promoting flavonoids production in F. tataricum hairy root cultures. Results: The exogenous yeast polysaccharide (YPS) elicitor notably stimulated the functional metabolites production in F. tataricum hairy root cultures, and the stimulation effect was concentration-dependent. Combination with the YPS elicitation (200 mg/L) and medium renewal process, the maximal flavonoids yield was enhanced to 47.13 mg/L, about 3.2-fold in comparison with the control culture of 14.88 mg/L. Moreover, this research also revealed the accumulation of these bioactive metabolites resulted from the stimulation of the phenylpropanoid pathway by YPS treatment. These results indicated that the F. tataricum hairy root culture could be an effective system for rutin and quercetin production. PMID:25210309

The expert explorer: a tool for hospital data visualization and adverse drug event rules validation.

PubMed

Băceanu, Adrian; Atasiei, Ionuţ; Chazard, Emmanuel; Leroy, Nicolas

2009-01-01

An important part of adverse drug events (ADEs) detection is the validation of the clinical cases and the assessment of the decision rules to detect ADEs. For that purpose, a software called "Expert Explorer" has been designed by Ideea Advertising. Anonymized datasets have been extracted from hospitals into a common repository. The tool has 3 main features. (1) It can display hospital stays in a visual and comprehensive way (diagnoses, drugs, lab results, etc.) using tables and pretty charts. (2) It allows designing and executing dashboards in order to generate knowledge about ADEs. (3) It finally allows uploading decision rules obtained from data mining. Experts can then review the rules, the hospital stays that match the rules, and finally give their advice thanks to specialized forms. Then the rules can be validated, invalidated, or improved (knowledge elicitation phase).

Freeze or flee? Negative stimuli elicit selective responding.

PubMed

Estes, Zachary; Verges, Michelle

2008-08-01

Humans preferentially attend to negative stimuli. A consequence of this automatic vigilance for negative valence is that negative words elicit slower responses than neutral or positive words on a host of cognitive tasks. Some researchers have speculated that negative stimuli elicit a general suppression of motor activity, akin to the freezing response exhibited by animals under threat. Alternatively, we suggest that negative stimuli only elicit slowed responding on tasks for which stimulus valence is irrelevant for responding. To discriminate between these motor suppression and response-relevance hypotheses, we elicited both lexical decisions and valence judgments of negative words and positive words. Relative to positive words (e.g., kitten), negative words (e.g., spider) elicited slower lexical decisions but faster valence judgments. Results therefore indicate that negative stimuli do not cause a generalized motor suppression. Rather, negative stimuli elicit selective responding, with faster responses on tasks for which stimulus valence is response-relevant.

Multiple neural network approaches to clinical expert systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stubbs, Derek F.

1990-08-01

We briefly review the concept of computer aided medical diagnosis and more extensively review the the existing literature on neural network applications in the field. Neural networks can function as simple expert systems for diagnosis or prognosis. Using a public database we develop a neural network for the diagnosis of a major presenting symptom while discussing the development process and possible approaches. MEDICAL EXPERTS SYSTEMS COMPUTER AIDED DIAGNOSIS Biomedicine is an incredibly diverse and multidisciplinary field and it is not surprising that neural networks with their many applications are finding more and more applications in the highly non-linear field of biomedicine. I want to concentrate on neural networks as medical expert systems for clinical diagnosis or prognosis. Expert Systems started out as a set of computerized " ifthen" rules. Everything was reduced to boolean logic and the promised land of computer experts was said to be in sight. It never came. Why? First the computer code explodes as the number of " ifs" increases. All the " ifs" have to interact. Second experts are not very good at reducing expertise to language. It turns out that experts recognize patterns and have non-verbal left-brain intuition decision processes. Third learning by example rather than learning by rule is the way natural brains works and making computers work by rule-learning is hideously labor intensive. Neural networks can learn from example. They learn the results

Expert and non-expert knowledge in medical practice.

PubMed

Nordin, I

2000-01-01

One problematic aspect of the rationality of medical practice concerns the relation between expert knowledge and non-expert knowledge. In medical practice it is important to match medical knowledge with the self-knowledge of the individual patient. This paper tries to study the problem of such matching by describing a model for technological paradigms and comparing it with an ideal of technological rationality. The professionalised experts tend to base their decisions and actions mostly on medical knowledge while the rationality of medicine also involves just as important elements of the personal evaluation and knowledge of the patients. Since both types of knowledge are necessary for rational decisions, the gap between the expert and the non-expert has to be bridged in some way. A solution to the problem is suggested in terms of pluralism, with the patient as ultimate decision-maker.

A parallel expert system for the control of a robotic air vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shakley, Donald; Lamont, Gary B.

1988-01-01

Expert systems can be used to govern the intelligent control of vehicles, for example the Robotic Air Vehicle (RAV). Due to the nature of the RAV system the associated expert system needs to perform in a demanding real-time environment. The use of a parallel processing capability to support the associated expert system's computational requirement is critical in this application. Thus, algorithms for parallel real-time expert systems must be designed, analyzed, and synthesized. The design process incorporates a consideration of the rule-set/face-set size along with representation issues. These issues are looked at in reference to information movement and various inference mechanisms. Also examined is the process involved with transporting the RAV expert system functions from the TI Explorer, where they are implemented in the Automated Reasoning Tool (ART), to the iPSC Hypercube, where the system is synthesized using Concurrent Common LISP (CCLISP). The transformation process for the ART to CCLISP conversion is described. The performance characteristics of the parallel implementation of these expert systems on the iPSC Hypercube are compared to the TI Explorer implementation.

Combining analytical hierarchy process and agglomerative hierarchical clustering in search of expert consensus in green corridors development management.

PubMed

Shapira, Aviad; Shoshany, Maxim; Nir-Goldenberg, Sigal

2013-07-01

Environmental management and planning are instrumental in resolving conflicts arising between societal needs for economic development on the one hand and for open green landscapes on the other hand. Allocating green corridors between fragmented core green areas may provide a partial solution to these conflicts. Decisions regarding green corridor development require the assessment of alternative allocations based on multiple criteria evaluations. Analytical Hierarchy Process provides a methodology for both a structured and consistent extraction of such evaluations and for the search for consensus among experts regarding weights assigned to the different criteria. Implementing this methodology using 15 Israeli experts-landscape architects, regional planners, and geographers-revealed inherent differences in expert opinions in this field beyond professional divisions. The use of Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering allowed to identify clusters representing common decisions regarding criterion weights. Aggregating the evaluations of these clusters revealed an important dichotomy between a pragmatist approach that emphasizes the weight of statutory criteria and an ecological approach that emphasizes the role of the natural conditions in allocating green landscape corridors.

Mind the Gaps: Expert and Non-Expert Differences in Conceptualising the Geological Subsurface.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, H.; Stewart, I. S.; Stokes, A.; Pahl, S.

2017-12-01

In communicating geoscience topics, emphasis is often given to approaches such as the use of narrative to make a message engaging and reducing the use of jargon to ensure that it is understood by as wide a group of people as possible. Whilst these are undeniably important techniques to promote effective communication, an aspect of geoscience communication that is often overlooked is the publics' conceptual frameworks about core geoscience concepts. The consideration of different conceptual frameworks fits with the need to ensure that the framing is appropriate for the message, but it extends beyond simple framing into more complicated issues of addressing and incorporating pre- and mis-conceptions in geoscience. In a study examining expert and non-expert cognitive (mental) models of the geological subsurface in south-west England, several gaps were found between the fundamental ways that experts and non-experts conceptualise this invisible realm. Of these, three gaps were considered to be particularly important and common to many participants: the use of spatial reasoning; the application of surface experiences to subsurface processes; and the connection between the surface and subsurface. This paper will examine the evidence for these three important conceptual gaps between specialists and non-specialists and will address how this type of cognitive study can help improve effective geoscience communication.

Key attributes of expert NRL referees.

PubMed

Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna

2017-05-01

Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.

Expert - Non-expert differences in visual behaviour during alpine slalom skiing.

PubMed

Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik F J A; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately 0,5s before passing the upcoming pole, the higher speed of experts implied that they shifted gaze spatially earlier in the bend than non-experts. Furthermore, experts focussed more on the second next pole while non-expert slalom skiers looked more to the snow surface immediately in front of their body. No difference was found in the fixation frequency, average fixation duration, and quiet eye duration between both groups. These results suggest that experts focus on the timing of their actions while non-experts still need to pay attention to the execution of these actions. These results also might suggest that ski trainers should instruct non-experts and experts to focus on the next pole and, shift their gaze to the second next pole shortly before reaching it. Based on the current study it seems unadvisable to instruct slalom skiers to look several poles ahead during the actual slalom. However, future research should test if these results still hold on a real outdoor slope, including multiple vertical gates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using expert judgments to explore robust alternatives for forest management under climate change.

PubMed

McDaniels, Timothy; Mills, Tamsin; Gregory, Robin; Ohlson, Dan

2012-12-01

We develop and apply a judgment-based approach to selecting robust alternatives, which are defined here as reasonably likely to achieve objectives, over a range of uncertainties. The intent is to develop an approach that is more practical in terms of data and analysis requirements than current approaches, informed by the literature and experience with probability elicitation and judgmental forecasting. The context involves decisions about managing forest lands that have been severely affected by mountain pine beetles in British Columbia, a pest infestation that is climate-exacerbated. A forest management decision was developed as the basis for the context, objectives, and alternatives for land management actions, to frame and condition the judgments. A wide range of climate forecasts, taken to represent the 10-90% levels on cumulative distributions for future climate, were developed to condition judgments. An elicitation instrument was developed, tested, and revised to serve as the basis for eliciting probabilistic three-point distributions regarding the performance of selected alternatives, over a set of relevant objectives, in the short and long term. The elicitations were conducted in a workshop comprising 14 regional forest management specialists. We employed the concept of stochastic dominance to help identify robust alternatives. We used extensive sensitivity analysis to explore the patterns in the judgments, and also considered the preferred alternatives for each individual expert. The results show that two alternatives that are more flexible than the current policies are judged more likely to perform better than the current alternatives on average in terms of stochastic dominance. The results suggest judgmental approaches to robust decision making deserve greater attention and testing. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Post-molting development of wind-elicited escape behavior in the cricket.

PubMed

Sato, Nodoka; Shidara, Hisashi; Ogawa, Hiroto

2017-11-01

Arthropods including insects grow through several developmental stages by molting. The abrupt changes in their body size and morphology accompanying the molting are responsible for the developmental changes in behavior. While in holometabolous insects, larval behaviors are transformed into adult-specific behaviors with drastic changes in nervous system during the pupal stage, hemimetabolous insects preserve most innate behaviors whole life long, which allow us to trace the maturation process of preserved behaviors after the changes in body. Wind-elicited escape behavior is one of these behaviors and mediated by cercal system, which is a mechanosensory organ equipped by all stages of nymph in orthopteran insects like crickets. However, the maturation process of the escape behavior after the molt is unclear. In this study, we examined time-series of changes in the wind-elicited escape behavior just after the imaginal molt in the cricket. The locomotor activities are developed over the elapsed time, and matured 24h after the molt. In contrast, a stimulus-angle dependency of moving direction was unchanged over time, meaning that the cercal sensory system detecting airflow direction was workable immediately after the molt, independent from the behavioral maturation. The post-molting development of the wind-elicited behavior was considered to result not simply from maturation of the exoskeleton or musculature because the escape response to heat-shock stimulus did not change after the molt. No effect of a temporal immobilization after the imaginal molt on the maturation of the wind-elicited behavior also implies that the maturation may be innately programmed without experience of locomotion. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bothered by abstractness or engaged by cohesion? Experts' explanations enhance novices' deep-learning.

PubMed

Lachner, Andreas; Nückles, Matthias

2015-03-01

Experts' explanations have been shown to better enhance novices' transfer as compared with advanced students' explanations. Based on research on expertise and text comprehension, we investigated whether the abstractness or the cohesion of experts' and intermediates' explanations accounted for novices' learning. In Study 1, we showed that the superior cohesion of experts' explanations accounted for most of novices' transfer, whereas the degree of abstractness did not impact novices' transfer performance. In Study 2, we investigated novices' processing while learning with experts' and intermediates' explanations. We found that novices studying experts' explanations actively self-regulated their processing of the explanations, as they showed mainly deep-processing activities, whereas novices learning with intermediates' explanations were mainly engaged in shallow-processing activities by paraphrasing the explanations. Thus, we concluded that subject-matter expertise is a crucial prerequisite for instructors. Despite the abstract character of experts' explanations, their subject-matter expertise enables them to generate highly cohesive explanations that serve as a valuable scaffold for students' construction of flexible knowledge by engaging them in deep-level processing. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Case Studies in Modelling, Control in Food Processes.

PubMed

Glassey, J; Barone, A; Montague, G A; Sabou, V

This chapter discusses the importance of modelling and control in increasing food process efficiency and ensuring product quality. Various approaches to both modelling and control in food processing are set in the context of the specific challenges in this industrial sector and latest developments in each area are discussed. Three industrial case studies are used to demonstrate the benefits of advanced measurement, modelling and control in food processes. The first case study illustrates the use of knowledge elicitation from expert operators in the process for the manufacture of potato chips (French fries) and the consequent improvements in process control to increase the consistency of the resulting product. The second case study highlights the economic benefits of tighter control of an important process parameter, moisture content, in potato crisp (chips) manufacture. The final case study describes the use of NIR spectroscopy in ensuring effective mixing of dry multicomponent mixtures and pastes. Practical implementation tips and infrastructure requirements are also discussed.

N400 elicited by incongruent ending words of Chinese idioms in healthy adults.

PubMed

Chen, Xing-shi; Tang, Yun-xiang; Xiao, Ze-ping; Wang, Ji-jun; Zhang, Ming-dao; Zhang, Zai-fu; Hu, Zhen-yu; Lou, Fei-ying; Chen, Chong; Zhang, Tian-hong

2010-03-20

Prior research about N400 has been mainly based on English stimuli, while the cognitive processing of Chinese characters is still unclear. The aim of the present study was to further investigate the semantic processing of Chinese idioms. Event related potentials (ERP) component N400 was elicited by 38 pairs of matching (congruent) and mismatching (incongruent) ended Chinese idioms: ending words with same phoneme but different shape and meaning (sPdSdM), with similar shape but different phoneme and meaning (sSdPdM), with same meaning but different phoneme and shape (sMdPdS), and words with different phoneme, shape and meaning (dPdSdM) and recorded by Guangzhou Runjie WJ-1 ERP instruments. In 62 right-handed healthy adults (age 19 - 50 years), N400 amplitudes and latencies were compared between matching and mismatching conditions at Fz, Cz and Pz. N400 showed a midline distribution and could be elicited in electrodes Fz, Cz and Pz. The mean values of N400 latencies and amplitudes were obtained for matching and mismatching ending words in healthy adults. Significant differences were found in N400 latencies and amplitudes in matching and mismatching ending-words idioms in healthy adults (P < 0.05). Compared with matching ending-words idioms, N400 latencies were prolonged and the amplitudes were increased in mismatching ones. N400s elicited by different types of stimuli showed different latencies and amplitudes, and longest N400 latency and largest N400 amplitude were elicited by ending-words with dPdSdM. No gender difference was found of N400 latency and amplitude in this study (P > 0.05). Compared with English stimuli, Chinese ideographic words could provide more flexible stimuli for N400 research in that the words have 3-dimension changes - phoneme, shape and meaning. Features of N400 elicited by matching and mismatching ending words in Chinese idioms are mainly determined by the meaning of the word. Some issues of N400 elicited by Chinese characters deserve further

Extending Hypothesis Testing of Edge Organizations Using Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) During ELICIT

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

task difficulty and response correctness on neural systems supporting fluid reasoning. Cognitive Neurodynamics 1 (1): 71-84. Kaplan, J.T., Iacoboni...dynamic influences on decision-making and trust during social interaction. ELICITing Behavior ELICIT is designed to explore social and cognitive ...a person’s own self-awareness in the game experience, (2) their cognitive processes of reasoning, and (3) the modulation of uncertainty that primes

An Expert Map of Gambling Risk Perception.

PubMed

Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

2015-12-01

The purpose of the current study was to investigate the moderating or mediating role played by risk perception in decision-making, gambling behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Eleven gambling expert clinicians and researchers completed a semi-structured interview derived from mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Expert interview data was used to construct a comprehensive expert mental model 'map' detailing risk-perception related factors contributing to harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and emergent themes. Findings indicated that experts considered idiosyncratic beliefs among gamblers result in overall underestimates of risk and loss, insufficient prioritization of needs, and planning and implementation of risk management strategies. Additional contextual factors influencing use of risk information (reinforcement and learning; mental states, environmental cues, ambivalence; and socio-cultural and biological variables) acted to shape risk perceptions and increase vulnerabilities to harm or disordered gambling. It was concluded that understanding the nature, extent and processes by which risk perception predisposes an individual to maintain gambling despite adverse consequences can guide the content of preventative educational responsible gambling campaigns.

Eliciting probabilistic expectations: Collaborations between psychologists and economists

PubMed Central

Bruine de Bruin, Wändi

2017-01-01

We describe two collaborations in which psychologists and economists provided essential support on foundational projects in major research programs. One project involved eliciting adolescents’ expectations regarding significant future life events affecting their psychological and economic development. The second project involved eliciting consumers’ expectations regarding inflation, a potentially vital input to their investment, saving, and purchasing decisions. In each project, we sought questions with the precision needed for economic modeling and the simplicity needed for lay respondents. We identify four conditions that, we believe, promoted our ability to sustain these transdisciplinary collaborations and coproduce the research: (i) having a shared research goal, which neither discipline could achieve on its own; (ii) finding common ground in shared methodology, which met each discipline’s essential evidentiary conditions, but without insisting on its culturally acquired tastes; (iii) sharing the effort throughout, with common language and sense of ownership; and (iv) gaining mutual benefit from both the research process and its products. PMID:28270610

Eliciting probabilistic expectations: Collaborations between psychologists and economists.

PubMed

Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Fischhoff, Baruch

2017-03-28

We describe two collaborations in which psychologists and economists provided essential support on foundational projects in major research programs. One project involved eliciting adolescents' expectations regarding significant future life events affecting their psychological and economic development. The second project involved eliciting consumers' expectations regarding inflation, a potentially vital input to their investment, saving, and purchasing decisions. In each project, we sought questions with the precision needed for economic modeling and the simplicity needed for lay respondents. We identify four conditions that, we believe, promoted our ability to sustain these transdisciplinary collaborations and coproduce the research: ( i ) having a shared research goal, which neither discipline could achieve on its own; ( ii ) finding common ground in shared methodology, which met each discipline's essential evidentiary conditions, but without insisting on its culturally acquired tastes; ( iii ) sharing the effort throughout, with common language and sense of ownership; and ( iv ) gaining mutual benefit from both the research process and its products.

Assessing Residents' Readiness for OR Autonomy: A Qualitative Descriptive Study of Expert Surgical Teachers' Best Practices.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaodong Phoenix; Sullivan, Amy M; Alseidi, Adnan; Kwakye, Gifty; Smink, Douglas S

Providing resident autonomy in the operating room (OR) is one of the major challenges for surgical educators today. The purpose of this study was to explore what approaches expert surgical teachers use to assess residents' readiness for autonomy in the OR. We particularly focused on the assessments that experts make prior to conducting the surgical time-out. We conducted semistructured in-depth interviews with expert surgical teachers from March 2016 to September 2016. Purposeful sampling and snowball sampling were applied to identify and recruit expert surgical teachers from general surgery residency programs across the United States to represent a range of clinical subspecialties. All interviews were audio-recorded, deidentified, and transcribed. We applied the Framework Method of content analysis, discussed and reached final consensus on the themes. We interviewed 15 expert teachers from 9 institutions. The majority (13/15) were Program or Associate Program Directors; 47% (7/15) primarily performed complex surgical operations (e.g., endocrine surgery). Five themes regarding how expert surgical teachers determine residents' readiness for OR autonomy before the surgical time-out emerged. These included 3 domains of evidence elicited about the resident (resident characteristics, medical knowledge, and beyond the current OR case), 1 variable relating to attending characteristics, and 1 variable composed of contextual factors. Experts obtained one or more examples of evidence, and adjusted residents' initial autonomy using factors from the attending variable and the context variable. Expert surgical teachers' assessments of residents' readiness for OR autonomy included 5 key components. Better understanding these inputs can contribute to both faculty and resident development, enabling increased resident autonomy and preparation for independent practice. Copyright © 2017 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of methods of processing of expert information by optimization of administrative decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churakov, D. Y.; Tsarkova, E. G.; Marchenko, N. D.; Grechishnikov, E. V.

2018-03-01

In the real operation the measure definition methodology in case of expert estimation of quality and reliability of application-oriented software products is offered. In operation methods of aggregation of expert estimates on the example of a collective choice of an instrumental control projects in case of software development of a special purpose for needs of institutions are described. Results of operation of dialogue decision making support system are given an algorithm of the decision of the task of a choice on the basis of a method of the analysis of hierarchies and also. The developed algorithm can be applied by development of expert systems to the solution of a wide class of the tasks anyway connected to a multicriteria choice.

CRN5EXP: Expert system for statistical quality control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hentea, Mariana

1991-01-01

The purpose of the Expert System CRN5EXP is to assist in checking the quality of the coils at two very important mills: Hot Rolling and Cold Rolling in a steel plant. The system interprets the statistical quality control charts, diagnoses and predicts the quality of the steel. Measurements of process control variables are recorded in a database and sample statistics such as the mean and the range are computed and plotted on a control chart. The chart is analyzed through patterns using the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) and a forward chaining technique to reach a conclusion about the causes of defects and to take management measures for the improvement of the quality control techniques. The Expert System combines the certainty factors associated with the process control variables to predict the quality of the steel. The paper presents the approach to extract data from the database, the reason to combine certainty factors, the architecture and the use of the Expert System. However, the interpretation of control charts patterns requires the human expert's knowledge and lends to Expert Systems rules.

20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... Section 405.10 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW PROCESS FOR... and Vocational Expert Unit and a national network of qualified medical, psychological, and vocational... and psychological experts from the national network may assist a State agency in determining...

[Judicial institutions of medical experts].

PubMed

Godoy, Roberto Lm

2016-05-01

This article considers the evolutive process that judicial organisms of medical experts have experienced in Argentina since their creation and formulates a proposal for its adequacy and modernization. Due to multiple and various evolutive factors, judicial organisms managing medicolegal expert activities show, nowadays, signals that a structural and dynamic reform is needed. They remain as organizational units of Public Administration and their effectiveness and efficiency depends not only of a scientific criteria but a managing one. The present and future challenge will be their conceptual transformation, from "corporate scientific entities" to "public-service-providing units" within the justice administration system.

Assessing the capability to experience a 'good death': A qualitative study to directly elicit expert views on a new supportive care measure grounded in Sen's capability approach

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Background Sen’s capability approach is underspecified; one decision left to those operationalising the approach is how to identify sets of relevant and important capabilities. Sen has suggested that lists be developed for specific policy or research objectives through a process of public reasoning and discussion. Robeyns offers further guidance in support of Sen’s position, suggesting that lists should be explicit, discussed and defended; methods be openly scrutinised; lists be considered both in terms of what is ideal and what is practical (‘generality’); and that lists be exhaustive. Here, the principles suggested by Robeyns are operationalised to facilitate external scrutiny of a list of capabilities identified for use in the evaluation of supportive end of life care. Methods This work started with an existing list of seven capabilities (the ICECAP-SCM), identified as being necessary for a person to experience a good death. Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with 20 experts in economics, psychology, ethics and palliative care, to facilitate external scrutiny of the developed list. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and analysed using constant comparison. Results The seven capabilities were found to encompass concepts identified as important by expert stakeholders (to be exhaustive) and the measure was considered feasible for use with patients receiving care at the end of life. Conclusion The rigorous development of lists of capabilities using both initial participatory approaches with affected population groups, and subsequent assessment by experts, strengthens their democratic basis and may encourage their use in policy contexts. PMID:29466414

Knowledge elicitation techniques and application to nuclear plant maintenance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doyle, E. Kevin

The new millennium has brought with it the opportunity of global trade which in turn requires the utmost in efficiency from each individual industry. This includes the nuclear power industry, a point which was emphasized when the electrical generation industry began to be de regulated across North America the late 1990s and re-emphasized when the northeast power grid of North America collapsed in the summer of 2003. This dissertation deals with reducing the cost of the maintenance function of Candu nuclear power plants and initiating a strong link between universities and the Canadian nuclear industry. Various forms of RCM (reliability-centred maintenance) have been the tools of choice in industry for improving the maintenance function during the last 20 years. In this project, pilot studies, conducted at Bruce Power between 1999 and 2005, and reported on in this dissertation, lay out a path to implement statistical improvements as the next step after RCM in reducing the cost of the maintenance. Elicitation protocols, designed for the age group being elicited, address the much-documented issue of a lack of data. Clear, graphical, inferential statistical interfaces are accentuated and developed to aid in building the teams required to implement the various methodologies and to help in achieving funding targets. Graphical analysis and Crow/AMSAA (army materials systems analysis activity) plots are developed and demonstrated from the point of view of justifying the expenditures of cost reduction efforts. This dissertation ultimately speaks to the great opportunity being presented by this approach at this time: of capturing the baby-boom generation's huge pool of knowledge before those people retire. It is expected that the protocols and procedures referenced here will have applicability across the many disciplines where collecting expert information from a similar age group is required.

The Principles of Designing an Expert System in Teaching Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salekhova, Lailya; Nurgaliev, Albert; Zaripova, Rinata; Khakimullina, Nailya

2013-01-01

This study reveals general didactic concepts of the Expert Systems (ES) development process in the educational area. The proof of concept is based on the example of teaching the 8th grade Algebra subject. The main contribution in this work is the implementation of innovative approaches in analysis and processing of data by expert system as well as…

Development of expert systems for modeling of technological process of pressure casting on the basis of artificial intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavarieva, K. N.; Simonova, L. A.; Pankratov, D. L.; Gavariev, R. V.

2017-09-01

In article the main component of expert system of process of casting under pressure which consists of algorithms, united in logical models is considered. The characteristics of system showing data on a condition of an object of management are described. A number of logically interconnected steps allowing to increase quality of the received castings is developed

The Evaluation of the Cognitive Learning Process of the Renewed Bloom Taxonomy Using a Web Based Expert System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goksu, Idris

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to develop the Web Based Expert System (WBES) which provides analyses and reports based on the cognitive processes of Renewed Bloom Taxonomy (RBT), and to put forward the impact of the supportive education provided in line with these reports, on the academic achievement and mastery learning state of the students. The study…

The use of cognitive task analysis to reveal the instructional limitations of experts in the teaching of procedural skills.

PubMed

Sullivan, Maura E; Yates, Kenneth A; Inaba, Kenji; Lam, Lydia; Clark, Richard E

2014-05-01

Because of the automated nature of knowledge, experts tend to omit information when describing a task. A potential solution is cognitive task analysis (CTA). The authors investigated the percentage of knowledge experts omitted when teaching a cricothyrotomy to determine the percentage of additional knowledge gained during a CTA interview. Three experts were videotaped teaching a cricothyrotomy in 2010 at the University of Southern California. After transcription, they participated in CTA interviews for the same procedure. Three additional surgeons were recruited to perform a CTA for the procedure, and a "gold standard" task list was created. Transcriptions from the teaching sessions were compared with the task list to identify omitted steps (both "what" and "how" to do). Transcripts from the CTA interviews were compared against the task list to determine the percentage of knowledge articulated by each expert during the initial "free recall" (unprompted) phase of the CTA interview versus the amount of knowledge gained by using CTA elicitation techniques (prompted). Experts omitted an average of 71% (10/14) of clinical knowledge steps, 51% (14/27) of action steps, and 73% (3.6/5) of decision steps. For action steps, experts described "how to do it" only 13% (3.6/27) of the time. The average number of steps that were described increased from 44% (20/46) when unprompted to 66% (31/46) when prompted. This study supports previous research that experts unintentionally omit knowledge when describing a procedure. CTA is a useful method to extract automated knowledge and augment expert knowledge recall during teaching.

The Elicitation Interview Technique: Capturing People's Experiences of Data Representations.

PubMed

Hogan, Trevor; Hinrichs, Uta; Hornecker, Eva

2016-12-01

Information visualization has become a popular tool to facilitate sense-making, discovery and communication in a large range of professional and casual contexts. However, evaluating visualizations is still a challenge. In particular, we lack techniques to help understand how visualizations are experienced by people. In this paper we discuss the potential of the Elicitation Interview technique to be applied in the context of visualization. The Elicitation Interview is a method for gathering detailed and precise accounts of human experience. We argue that it can be applied to help understand how people experience and interpret visualizations as part of exploration and data analysis processes. We describe the key characteristics of this interview technique and present a study we conducted to exemplify how it can be applied to evaluate data representations. Our study illustrates the types of insights this technique can bring to the fore, for example, evidence for deep interpretation of visual representations and the formation of interpretations and stories beyond the represented data. We discuss general visualization evaluation scenarios where the Elicitation Interview technique may be beneficial and specify what needs to be considered when applying this technique in a visualization context specifically.

Auditory memory function in expert chess players

PubMed Central

Fattahi, Fariba; Geshani, Ahmad; Jafari, Zahra; Jalaie, Shohreh; Salman Mahini, Mona

2015-01-01

Background: Chess is a game that involves many aspects of high level cognition such as memory, attention, focus and problem solving. Long term practice of chess can improve cognition performances and behavioral skills. Auditory memory, as a kind of memory, can be influenced by strengthening processes following long term chess playing like other behavioral skills because of common processing pathways in the brain. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the auditory memory function of expert chess players using the Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test. Methods: The Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test was performed for 30 expert chess players aged 20-35 years and 30 non chess players who were matched by different conditions; the participants in both groups were randomly selected. The performance of the two groups was compared by independent samples t-test using SPSS version 21. Results: The mean score of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test between the two groups, expert chess players and non-chess players, revealed a significant difference (p≤ 0.001). The difference between the ears scores for expert chess players (p= 0.023) and non-chess players (p= 0.013) was significant. Gender had no effect on the test results. Conclusion: Auditory memory function in expert chess players was significantly better compared to non-chess players. It seems that increased auditory memory function is related to strengthening cognitive performances due to playing chess for a long time. PMID:26793666

Auditory memory function in expert chess players.

PubMed

Fattahi, Fariba; Geshani, Ahmad; Jafari, Zahra; Jalaie, Shohreh; Salman Mahini, Mona

2015-01-01

Chess is a game that involves many aspects of high level cognition such as memory, attention, focus and problem solving. Long term practice of chess can improve cognition performances and behavioral skills. Auditory memory, as a kind of memory, can be influenced by strengthening processes following long term chess playing like other behavioral skills because of common processing pathways in the brain. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the auditory memory function of expert chess players using the Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test. The Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test was performed for 30 expert chess players aged 20-35 years and 30 non chess players who were matched by different conditions; the participants in both groups were randomly selected. The performance of the two groups was compared by independent samples t-test using SPSS version 21. The mean score of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test between the two groups, expert chess players and non-chess players, revealed a significant difference (p≤ 0.001). The difference between the ears scores for expert chess players (p= 0.023) and non-chess players (p= 0.013) was significant. Gender had no effect on the test results. Auditory memory function in expert chess players was significantly better compared to non-chess players. It seems that increased auditory memory function is related to strengthening cognitive performances due to playing chess for a long time.

Analysis of creative mathematical thinking ability by using model eliciting activities (MEAs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winda, A.; Sufyani, P.; Elah, N.

2018-05-01

Lack of creative mathematical thinking ability can lead to not accustomed with open ended problem. Students’ creative mathematical thinking ability in the first grade at one of junior high school in Tangerang City is not fully developed. The reason of students’ creative mathematical thinking ability is not optimally developed is so related with learning process which has done by the mathematics teacher, maybe the learning design that teacher use is unsuitable for increasing students’ activity in the learning process. This research objective is to see the differences in students’ ways of answering the problems in terms of students’ creative mathematical thinking ability during the implementation of Model Eliciting Activities (MEAs). This research use post-test experimental class design. The indicators for creative mathematical thinking ability in this research arranged in three parts, as follow: (1) Fluency to answer the problems; (2) Flexibility to solve the problems; (3) Originality of answers. The result of this research found that by using the same learning model and same instrument from Model Eliciting Activities (MEAs) there are some differences in the way students answer the problems and Model Eliciting Activities (MEAs) can be one of approach used to increase students’ creative mathematical thinking ability.

Expert system technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prince, Mary Ellen

1987-01-01

The expert system is a computer program which attempts to reproduce the problem-solving behavior of an expert, who is able to view problems from a broad perspective and arrive at conclusions rapidly, using intuition, shortcuts, and analogies to previous situations. Expert systems are a departure from the usual artificial intelligence approach to problem solving. Researchers have traditionally tried to develop general modes of human intelligence that could be applied to many different situations. Expert systems, on the other hand, tend to rely on large quantities of domain specific knowledge, much of it heuristic. The reasoning component of the system is relatively simple and straightforward. For this reason, expert systems are often called knowledge based systems. The report expands on the foregoing. Section 1 discusses the architecture of a typical expert system. Section 2 deals with the characteristics that make a problem a suitable candidate for expert system solution. Section 3 surveys current technology, describing some of the software aids available for expert system development. Section 4 discusses the limitations of the latter. The concluding section makes predictions of future trends.

The Expert Mathematician. Revised. What Works Clearinghouse Intervention Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

What Works Clearinghouse, 2006

2006-01-01

"The Expert Mathematician" is designed to help middle school students develop the thinking processes for mathematical applications and communication. A three-year program of instruction, "The Expert Mathematician" uses a software and consumable print materials package with 196 lessons that teach the "Logo" programming…

Sensitizing and Eliciting Capacity of Egg White Proteins in BALB/c Mice As Affected by Processing.

PubMed

Pablos-Tanarro, Alba; Lozano-Ojalvo, Daniel; Martínez-Blanco, Mónica; López-Fandiño, Rosina; Molina, Elena

2017-06-07

This study assesses to what extent technological processes that lead to different degrees of denaturation of egg white proteins affect their allergenicity. We focused on heat (80 °C, 10 min) and high-pressure (400 MPa and 37 °C, 10 min) treatments and used a BALB/c mouse model of food allergy. Oral sensitization to egg white using cholera toxin as adjuvant induced the production of IgE and IgG1 isotypes and led to severe clinical signs following challenge with the allergen. Extensive protein denaturation caused by heat treatment increased its ability to induce Th1 responses and reduced both its sensitizing and eliciting capacity. Heated egg white stimulated the production of IgE over IgG1 antibodies directed, at least in part, toward new epitopes exposed as a result of heat treatment. Conversely, partial denaturation caused by high-pressure treatment increased the ability of egg white to stimulate Th2 responses and its allergenic potential.

Expert Systems: Implications for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Learning Disabilities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hofmeister, Alan M.; Lubke, Margaret M.

1988-01-01

The article examines characteristics and present or potential applications of expert systems technology for diagnosis and treatment of learning disabilities. Preliminary findings indicate that expert systems can perform as well as humans in specific areas, and that the process of organizing knowledge bases for expert systems helps clarify existing…

Numerical Algorithms for the Analysis of Expert Opinions Elicited in Text Format

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-01

generative process just described actually means. No “real” intelligible document will ever be gen- erated from such a process, rather, a bag of words...Linguistics, 1992, pp. 977–981. Bra89. N. Bratchell, Cluster analysis, Chememeotrics and Intelligent Laboratory Sys- tems 6 (1989), 105–125. Bre99. P...with graphical models, Journal of Arti- ficial Intelligence Research 2 96 (1994), 159–225. UNCLASSIFIED 39 DSTO–TR–2797 UNCLASSIFIED Bun02. Wray L

Expert Witness: A system for developing expert medical testimony

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, Raymond; Perkins, David; Leasure, David

1994-01-01

Expert Witness in an expert system designed to assist attorneys and medical experts in determining the merit of medical malpractice claims in the area of obstetrics. It substitutes the time of the medical expert with the time of a paralegal assistant guided by the expert system during the initial investigation of the medical records and patient interviews. The product of the system is a narrative transcript containing important data, immediate conclusions from the data, and overall conclusions of the case that the attorney and medical expert use to make decisions about whether and how to proceed with the case. The transcript may also contain directives for gathering additional information needed for the case. The system is a modified heuristic classifier and is implemented using over 600 CLIPS rules together with a C-based user interface. The data abstraction and solution refinement are implemented directly using forward chaining production and matching. The use of CLIPS and C is essential to delivering a system that runs on a generic PC platform. The direct implementation in CLIPS together with locality of inference ensures that the system will scale gracefully. Two years of use has revealed no errors in the reasoning.

Expert Seeker

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fernandez, Becerra

2003-01-01

Expert Seeker is a computer program of the knowledge-management-system (KMS) type that falls within the category of expertise-locator systems. The main goal of the KMS system implemented by Expert Seeker is to organize and distribute knowledge of who are the domain experts within and without a given institution, company, or other organization. The intent in developing this KMS was to enable the re-use of organizational knowledge and provide a methodology for querying existing information (including structured, semistructured, and unstructured information) in a way that could help identify organizational experts. More specifically, Expert Seeker was developed to make it possible, by use of an intranet, to do any or all of the following: Assist an employee in identifying who has the skills needed for specific projects and to determine whether the experts so identified are available. Assist managers in identifying employees who may need training opportunities. Assist managers in determining what expertise is lost when employees retire or otherwise leave. Facilitate the development of new ways of identifying opportunities for innovation and minimization of duplicated efforts. Assist employees in achieving competitive advantages through the application of knowledge-management concepts and related systems. Assist external organizations in requesting speakers for specific engagements or determining from whom they might be able to request help via electronic mail. Help foster an environment of collaboration for rapid development in today's environment, in which it is increasingly necessary to assemble teams of experts from government, universities, research laboratories, and industries, to quickly solve problems anytime, anywhere. Make experts more visible. Provide a central repository of information about employees, including information that, heretofore, has typically not been captured by the human-resources systems (e.g., information about past projects, patents, or

The Instructional Developer, Expert Systems, and the Front End Process.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dills, Charles R.; Romiszowski, Alexander

This paper is intended to provide the instructional technologist already possessing some understanding of expert systems with some insight into two of the many steps involved in the design and production of such systems: knowledge acquisition and knowledge structuring or representation. It is also intended to help technologists to see how they…

Rhetorical Consequences of the Computer Society: Expert Systems and Human Communication.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skopec, Eric Wm.

Expert systems are computer programs that solve selected problems by modelling domain-specific behaviors of human experts. These computer programs typically consist of an input/output system that feeds data into the computer and retrieves advice, an inference system using the reasoning and heuristic processes of human experts, and a knowledge…

Using task analysis to improve the requirements elicitation in health information system.

PubMed

Teixeira, Leonor; Ferreira, Carlos; Santos, Beatriz Sousa

2007-01-01

This paper describes the application of task analysis within the design process of a Web-based information system for managing clinical information in hemophilia care, in order to improve the requirements elicitation and, consequently, to validate the domain model obtained in a previous phase of the design process (system analysis). The use of task analysis in this case proved to be a practical and efficient way to improve the requirements engineering process by involving users in the design process.

Augmenting Usability: Cultural Elicitation in HCI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camara, Souleymane Boundaouda; Oyugi, Cecilia; Abdelnour-Nocera, José; Smith, Andy

This paper offers context and culture elicitation in an inter-cultural and multi-disciplinary setting of ICT design. Localised usability evaluation (LUE) is augmented with a socio-technical evaluation tool (STEM) as a methodological approach to expose and address issues in a collaborative ICT design within the Village e-Science for Life (VeSeL) project in rural Kenya. The paper argues that designers need to locally identify context and culture in situ and further explicate their implications through the design process and at the global level. Stakeholders' context, culture, decisions, agendas, expectations, disciplines and requirements need to be locally identified and globally evaluated to ensure a fit for purpose solution.

Expert Witness Participation in Civil and Criminal Proceedings.

PubMed

Narang, Sandeep K; Paul, Stephan R

2017-03-01

The interests of the public and both the medical and legal professions are best served when scientifically sound and unbiased expert witness testimony is readily available in civil and criminal proceedings. As members of the medical community, patient advocates, and private citizens, pediatricians have ethical and professional obligations to assist in the civil and criminal judicial processes. This technical report explains how the role of the expert witness differs in civil and criminal proceedings, legal and ethical standards for expert witnesses, and strategies that have been employed to deter unscientific and irresponsible testimony. A companion policy statement offers recommendations on advocacy, education, research, qualifications, standards, and ethical business practices all aimed at improving expert testimony. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Expert searcher, teacher, content manager, and patient advocate: an exploratory study of clinical librarian roles.

PubMed

Tan, Maria C; Maggio, Lauren A

2013-01-01

The research explored the roles of practicing clinical librarians embedded in a patient care team. Six clinical librarians from Canada and one from the United States were interviewed to elicit detailed descriptions of their clinical roles and responsibilities and the context in which these were performed. Participants were embedded in a wide range of clinical service areas, working with a diverse complement of health professionals. As clinical librarians, participants wore many hats, including expert searcher, teacher, content manager, and patient advocate. Unique aspects of how these roles played out included a sense of urgency surrounding searching activities, the broad dissemination of responses to clinical questions, and leverage of the roles of expert searcher, teacher, and content manager to advocate for patients. Detailed role descriptions of clinical librarians embedded in patient care teams suggest possible new practices for existing clinical librarians, provide direction for training new librarians working in patient care environments, and raise awareness of the clinical librarian specialty among current and budding health information professionals.

Testing expert systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, C. L.; Stachowitz, R. A.

1988-01-01

Software quality is of primary concern in all large-scale expert system development efforts. Building appropriate validation and test tools for ensuring software reliability of expert systems is therefore required. The Expert Systems Validation Associate (EVA) is a validation system under development at the Lockheed Artificial Intelligence Center. EVA provides a wide range of validation and test tools to check correctness, consistency, and completeness of an expert system. Testing a major function of EVA. It means executing an expert system with test cases with the intent of finding errors. In this paper, we describe many different types of testing such as function-based testing, structure-based testing, and data-based testing. We describe how appropriate test cases may be selected in order to perform good and thorough testing of an expert system.

Curricula for Media Literacy Education According to International Experts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fedorov, Alexander; Levitskaya, Anastasia; Camarero, Emma

2016-01-01

The article analyzes the results of the international experts' survey regarding the curriculum of media literacy education, which was administrated by the authors in September-October 2015. The expert panel includes specialists actively involved in the real process of media literacy education in schools, universities and other educational…

A Semiautomated Framework for Integrating Expert Knowledge into Disease Marker Identification

PubMed Central

Wang, Jing; Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Matzke, Melissa M.; Varnum, Susan M.; Brown, Joseph N.; Riensche, Roderick M.; Adkins, Joshua N.; Jacobs, Jon M.; Hoidal, John R.; Scholand, Mary Beth; Pounds, Joel G.; Blackburn, Michael R.; Rodland, Karin D.; McDermott, Jason E.

2013-01-01

Background. The availability of large complex data sets generated by high throughput technologies has enabled the recent proliferation of disease biomarker studies. However, a recurring problem in deriving biological information from large data sets is how to best incorporate expert knowledge into the biomarker selection process. Objective. To develop a generalizable framework that can incorporate expert knowledge into data-driven processes in a semiautomated way while providing a metric for optimization in a biomarker selection scheme. Methods. The framework was implemented as a pipeline consisting of five components for the identification of signatures from integrated clustering (ISIC). Expert knowledge was integrated into the biomarker identification process using the combination of two distinct approaches; a distance-based clustering approach and an expert knowledge-driven functional selection. Results. The utility of the developed framework ISIC was demonstrated on proteomics data from a study of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Biomarker candidates were identified in a mouse model using ISIC and validated in a study of a human cohort. Conclusions. Expert knowledge can be introduced into a biomarker discovery process in different ways to enhance the robustness of selected marker candidates. Developing strategies for extracting orthogonal and robust features from large data sets increases the chances of success in biomarker identification. PMID:24223463

A Semiautomated Framework for Integrating Expert Knowledge into Disease Marker Identification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jing; Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Matzke, Melissa M.

2013-10-01

Background. The availability of large complex data sets generated by high throughput technologies has enabled the recent proliferation of disease biomarker studies. However, a recurring problem in deriving biological information from large data sets is how to best incorporate expert knowledge into the biomarker selection process. Objective. To develop a generalizable framework that can incorporate expert knowledge into data-driven processes in a semiautomated way while providing a metric for optimization in a biomarker selection scheme. Methods. The framework was implemented as a pipeline consisting of five components for the identification of signatures from integrated clustering (ISIC). Expert knowledge was integratedmore » into the biomarker identification process using the combination of two distinct approaches; a distance-based clustering approach and an expert knowledge-driven functional selection. Results. The utility of the developed framework ISIC was demonstrated on proteomics data from a study of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Biomarker candidates were identified in a mouse model using ISIC and validated in a study of a human cohort. Conclusions. Expert knowledge can be introduced into a biomarker discovery process in different ways to enhance the robustness of selected marker candidates. Developing strategies for extracting orthogonal and robust features from large data sets increases the chances of success in biomarker identification.« less

An Expert Assistant for Computer Aided Parallelization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jost, Gabriele; Chun, Robert; Jin, Haoqiang; Labarta, Jesus; Gimenez, Judit

2004-01-01

The prototype implementation of an expert system was developed to assist the user in the computer aided parallelization process. The system interfaces to tools for automatic parallelization and performance analysis. By fusing static program structure information and dynamic performance analysis data the expert system can help the user to filter, correlate, and interpret the data gathered by the existing tools. Sections of the code that show poor performance and require further attention are rapidly identified and suggestions for improvements are presented to the user. In this paper we describe the components of the expert system and discuss its interface to the existing tools. We present a case study to demonstrate the successful use in full scale scientific applications.

Expert Systems: An Overview.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adiga, Sadashiv

1984-01-01

Discusses: (1) the architecture of expert systems; (2) features that distinguish expert systems from conventional programs; (3) conditions necessary to select a particular application for the development of successful expert systems; (4) issues to be resolved when building expert systems; and (5) limitations. Examples of selected expert systems…

Brain Activity Elicited by Positive and Negative Feedback in Preschool-Aged Children

PubMed Central

Mai, Xiaoqin; Tardif, Twila; Doan, Stacey N.; Liu, Chao; Gehring, William J.; Luo, Yue-Jia

2011-01-01

To investigate the processing of positive vs. negative feedback in children aged 4–5 years, we devised a prize-guessing game that is analogous to gambling tasks used to measure feedback-related brain responses in adult studies. Unlike adult studies, the feedback-related negativity (FRN) elicited by positive feedback was as large as that elicited by negative feedback, suggesting that the neural system underlying the FRN may not process feedback valence in early childhood. In addition, positive feedback, compared with negative feedback, evoked a larger P1 over the occipital scalp area and a larger positive slow wave (PSW) over the right central-parietal scalp area. We believe that the PSW is related to emotional arousal and the intensive focus on positive feedback that is present in the preschool and early school years has adaptive significance for both cognitive and emotional development during this period. PMID:21526189

Expert2OWL: A Methodology for Pattern-Based Ontology Development.

PubMed

Tahar, Kais; Xu, Jie; Herre, Heinrich

2017-01-01

The formalization of expert knowledge enables a broad spectrum of applications employing ontologies as underlying technology. These include eLearning, Semantic Web and expert systems. However, the manual construction of such ontologies is time-consuming and thus expensive. Moreover, experts are often unfamiliar with the syntax and semantics of formal ontology languages such as OWL and usually have no experience in developing formal ontologies. To overcome these barriers, we developed a new method and tool, called Expert2OWL that provides efficient features to support the construction of OWL ontologies using GFO (General Formal Ontology) as a top-level ontology. This method allows a close and effective collaboration between ontologists and domain experts. Essentially, this tool integrates Excel spreadsheets as part of a pattern-based ontology development and refinement process. Expert2OWL enables us to expedite the development process and modularize the resulting ontologies. We applied this method in the field of Chinese Herbal Medicine (CHM) and used Expert2OWL to automatically generate an accurate Chinese Herbology ontology (CHO). The expressivity of CHO was tested and evaluated using ontology query languages SPARQL and DL. CHO shows promising results and can generate answers to important scientific questions such as which Chinese herbal formulas contain which substances, which substances treat which diseases, and which ones are the most frequently used in CHM.

Parahippocampal cortex is involved in material processing via echoes in blind echolocation experts.

PubMed

Milne, Jennifer L; Arnott, Stephen R; Kish, Daniel; Goodale, Melvyn A; Thaler, Lore

2015-04-01

Some blind humans use sound to navigate by emitting mouth-clicks and listening to the echoes that reflect from silent objects and surfaces in their surroundings. These echoes contain information about the size, shape, location, and material properties of objects. Here we present results from an fMRI experiment that investigated the neural activity underlying the processing of materials through echolocation. Three blind echolocation experts (as well as three blind and three sighted non-echolocating control participants) took part in the experiment. First, we made binaural sound recordings in the ears of each echolocator while he produced clicks in the presence of one of three different materials (fleece, synthetic foliage, or whiteboard), or while he made clicks in an empty room. During fMRI scanning these recordings were played back to participants. Remarkably, all participants were able to identify each of the three materials reliably, as well as the empty room. Furthermore, a whole brain analysis, in which we isolated the processing of just the reflected echoes, revealed a material-related increase in BOLD activation in a region of left parahippocampal cortex in the echolocating participants, but not in the blind or sighted control participants. Our results, in combination with previous findings about brain areas involved in material processing, are consistent with the idea that material processing by means of echolocation relies on a multi-modal material processing area in parahippocampal cortex. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cannabis cue-elicited craving and the reward neurocircuitry.

PubMed

Filbey, Francesca M; DeWitt, Samuel J

2012-07-02

Cue-elicited craving or the intense desire to consume a substance following exposure to a conditioned drug cue is one of the primary behavioral symptoms of substance use disorders (SUDs). While the concept of cue-elicited craving is well characterized in alcohol and other substances of abuse, only recently has it been described in cannabis. A review of the extant literature has established that cue-elicited craving is a powerful reinforcer that contributes to drug-seeking for cannabis. Further, emergent research has begun to identify the neurobiological systems and neural mechanisms associated with this behavior. What research shows is that while theories of THC's effects on the dopaminergic-reward system remain divergent, cannabis cues elicit neural activation in the brain's reward network. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Expert Systems in Decisionmaking Organizations

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-07-01

Abacus Press, Tunbridge Wells. Levis, A. H., 1984. "Information Processing and Decisionmaking Organizations: A Mathematical Description." I Large Scale Systems , Vol. 7, pp. 151-163. hI2 II I, Ie ... intelligence and especially expert systems. This paper presents a procedure for assessing to what extent the measures of performance of an organization are...aids that is receiving attention in the development community is based on artificial intelligence and especially expert systems. This paper presents a

Monte Carlo simulation of expert judgments on human errors in chemical analysis--a case study of ICP-MS.

PubMed

Kuselman, Ilya; Pennecchi, Francesca; Epstein, Malka; Fajgelj, Ales; Ellison, Stephen L R

2014-12-01

Monte Carlo simulation of expert judgments on human errors in a chemical analysis was used for determination of distributions of the error quantification scores (scores of likelihood and severity, and scores of effectiveness of a laboratory quality system in prevention of the errors). The simulation was based on modeling of an expert behavior: confident, reasonably doubting and irresolute expert judgments were taken into account by means of different probability mass functions (pmfs). As a case study, 36 scenarios of human errors which may occur in elemental analysis of geological samples by ICP-MS were examined. Characteristics of the score distributions for three pmfs of an expert behavior were compared. Variability of the scores, as standard deviation of the simulated score values from the distribution mean, was used for assessment of the score robustness. A range of the score values, calculated directly from elicited data and simulated by a Monte Carlo method for different pmfs, was also discussed from the robustness point of view. It was shown that robustness of the scores, obtained in the case study, can be assessed as satisfactory for the quality risk management and improvement of a laboratory quality system against human errors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Elicitation of macrophages from the peritoneal cavity of channel catfish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenkins, J.A.; Klesius, P.H.

1998-01-01

Four chemicals were evaluated for elicitation of macrophages in peritoneal cavities of 250-300g healthy channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus. Cellular exudates were collected at 3, 5, 7, 10, 14, and 20 d following intraperitoneal injections with squalene, Freund's incomplete adjuvant (FIA), goat serum, thioglycollate, or as a control, phosphate-buffered saline. Injection with either squalene or FIA induced significantly greater (P ??? 0.0001) macrophage recruitment than the other chemicals. The effectiveness of squalene and FIA was compared further by macrophage collection daily for 7 d. Squalene and FIA elicited similarly high macrophage responses (P ??? 0.0450), the highest being 3.43 x 106 macrophages/mL (SE, 2.4 x l06) at 99% purity at day 2 and 2.1 X 106 macrophages/mL (SE, 0.7 x 106) at day 14 at 80% purity, respectively. In both experiments, the time after injection was not statistically significant, nor was there an interaction between time and chemicals. The occurrence of cells other than macrophages decreased with time to yield macrophage recoveries of 47-99% for squalene and 30-80% for FIA. Two subsets of macrophages were observed by means of flow cytometry. As demonstrated by chemiluminescence, the squalene-elicited cells produced high-energy oxygen compounds important to the phagocytic process.

Model of critical diagnostic reasoning: achieving expert clinician performance.

PubMed

Harjai, Prashant Kumar; Tiwari, Ruby

2009-01-01

Diagnostic reasoning refers to the analytical processes used to determine patient health problems. While the education curriculum and health care system focus on training nurse clinicians to accurately recognize and rescue clinical situations, assessments of non-expert nurses have yielded less than satisfactory data on diagnostic competency. The contrast between the expert and non-expert nurse clinician raises the important question of how differences in thinking may contribute to a large divergence in accurate diagnostic reasoning. This article recognizes superior organization of one's knowledge base, using prototypes, and quick retrieval of pertinent information, using similarity recognition as two reasons for the expert's superior diagnostic performance. A model of critical diagnostic reasoning, using prototypes and similarity recognition, is proposed and elucidated using case studies. This model serves as a starting point toward bridging the gap between clinical data and accurate problem identification, verification, and management while providing a structure for a knowledge exchange between expert and non-expert clinicians.

Techniques for capturing expert knowledge - An expert systems/hypertext approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lafferty, Larry; Taylor, Greg; Schumann, Robin; Evans, Randy; Koller, Albert M., Jr.

1990-01-01

The knowledge-acquisition strategy developed for the Explosive Hazards Classification (EHC) Expert System is described in which expert systems and hypertext are combined, and broad applications are proposed. The EHC expert system is based on rapid prototyping in which primary knowledge acquisition from experts is not emphasized; the explosive hazards technical bulletin, technical guidance, and minimal interviewing are used to develop the knowledge-based system. Hypertext is used to capture the technical information with respect to four issues including procedural, materials, test, and classification issues. The hypertext display allows the integration of multiple knowlege representations such as clarifications or opinions, and thereby allows the performance of a broad range of tasks on a single machine. Among other recommendations, it is suggested that the integration of hypertext and expert systems makes the resulting synergistic system highly efficient.

Improved inter-observer agreement of an expert review panel in an oncology treatment trial--Insights from a structured interventional process.

PubMed

Nestle, Ursula; Rischke, Hans Christian; Eschmann, Susanne Martina; Holl, Gabriele; Tosch, Marco; Miederer, Matthias; Plotkin, Michail; Essler, Markus; Puskas, Cornelia; Schimek-Jasch, Tanja; Duncker-Rohr, Viola; Rühl, Friederike; Leifert, Anja; Mix, Michael; Grosu, Anca-Ligia; König, Jochem; Vach, Werner

2015-11-01

Oncologic imaging is a key for successful cancer treatment. While the quality assurance (QA) of image acquisition protocols has already been focussed, QA of reading and reporting offers still room for improvement. The latter was addressed in the context of a prospective multicentre trial on fluoro-deoxyglucose (FDG)-positron-emission tomography (PET)/CT-based chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). An expert panel was prospectively installed performing blinded reviews of mediastinal NSCLC involvement in FDG-PET/CT. Due to a high initial reporting inter-observer disagreement, the independent data monitoring committee (IDMC) triggered an interventional harmonisation process, which overall involved 11 experts uttering 6855 blinded diagnostic statements. After assessing the baseline inter-observer agreement (IOA) of a blinded re-review (phase 1), a discussion process led to improved reading criteria (phase 2). Those underwent a validation study (phase 3) and were then implemented into the study routine. After 2 months (phase 4) and 1 year (phase 5), the IOA was reassessed. The initial overall IOA was moderate (kappa 0.52 CT; 0.53 PET). After improvement of reading criteria, the kappa values improved substantially (kappa 0.61 CT; 0.66 PET), which was retained until the late reassessment (kappa 0.71 CT; 0.67 PET). Subjective uncertainty was highly predictive for low IOA. The IOA of an expert panel was significantly improved by a structured interventional harmonisation process which could be a model for future clinical trials. Furthermore, the low IOA in reporting nodal involvement in NSCLC may bear consequences for individual patient care. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heuristics in Managing Complex Clinical Decision Tasks in Experts' Decision Making.

PubMed

Islam, Roosan; Weir, Charlene; Del Fiol, Guilherme

2014-09-01

Clinical decision support is a tool to help experts make optimal and efficient decisions. However, little is known about the high level of abstractions in the thinking process for the experts. The objective of the study is to understand how clinicians manage complexity while dealing with complex clinical decision tasks. After approval from the Institutional Review Board (IRB), three clinical experts were interviewed the transcripts from these interviews were analyzed. We found five broad categories of strategies by experts for managing complex clinical decision tasks: decision conflict, mental projection, decision trade-offs, managing uncertainty and generating rule of thumb. Complexity is created by decision conflicts, mental projection, limited options and treatment uncertainty. Experts cope with complexity in a variety of ways, including using efficient and fast decision strategies to simplify complex decision tasks, mentally simulating outcomes and focusing on only the most relevant information. Understanding complex decision making processes can help design allocation based on the complexity of task for clinical decision support design.

A Simplified Method of Eliciting Information from Novices.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brandt, D. Scott; Uden, Lorna

2002-01-01

Discusses the use of applied cognitive task analysis (ACTA) to interview novices and gain insight into their cognitive skills and processes. Focuses particularly on novice Internet searchers at the University of Staffordshire (United Kingdom) and reviews attempts to modify ACTA, which is intended to gather information from experts as part of…

Towards a Fuzzy Expert System on Toxicological Data Quality Assessment.

PubMed

Yang, Longzhi; Neagu, Daniel; Cronin, Mark T D; Hewitt, Mark; Enoch, Steven J; Madden, Judith C; Przybylak, Katarzyna

2013-01-01

Quality assessment (QA) requires high levels of domain-specific experience and knowledge. QA tasks for toxicological data are usually performed by human experts manually, although a number of quality evaluation schemes have been proposed in the literature. For instance, the most widely utilised Klimisch scheme1 defines four data quality categories in order to tag data instances with respect to their qualities; ToxRTool2 is an extension of the Klimisch approach aiming to increase the transparency and harmonisation of the approach. Note that the processes of QA in many other areas have been automatised by employing expert systems. Briefly, an expert system is a computer program that uses a knowledge base built upon human expertise, and an inference engine that mimics the reasoning processes of human experts to infer new statements from incoming data. In particular, expert systems have been extended to deal with the uncertainty of information by representing uncertain information (such as linguistic terms) as fuzzy sets under the framework of fuzzy set theory and performing inferences upon fuzzy sets according to fuzzy arithmetic. This paper presents an experimental fuzzy expert system for toxicological data QA which is developed on the basis of the Klimisch approach and the ToxRTool in an effort to illustrate the power of expert systems to toxicologists, and to examine if fuzzy expert systems are a viable solution for QA of toxicological data. Such direction still faces great difficulties due to the well-known common challenge of toxicological data QA that "five toxicologists may have six opinions". In the meantime, this challenge may offer an opportunity for expert systems because the construction and refinement of the knowledge base could be a converging process of different opinions which is of significant importance for regulatory policy making under the regulation of REACH, though a consensus may never be reached. Also, in order to facilitate the implementation

Using expert knowledge for test linking.

PubMed

Bolsinova, Maria; Hoijtink, Herbert; Vermeulen, Jorine Adinda; Béguin, Anton

2017-12-01

Linking and equating procedures are used to make the results of different test forms comparable. In the cases where no assumption of random equivalent groups can be made some form of linking design is used. In practice the amount of data available to link the two tests is often very limited due to logistic and security reasons, which affects the precision of linking procedures. This study proposes to enhance the quality of linking procedures based on sparse data by using Bayesian methods which combine the information in the linking data with background information captured in informative prior distributions. We propose two methods for the elicitation of prior knowledge about the difference in difficulty of two tests from subject-matter experts and explain how these results can be used in the specification of priors. To illustrate the proposed methods and evaluate the quality of linking with and without informative priors, an empirical example of linking primary school mathematics tests is presented. The results suggest that informative priors can increase the precision of linking without decreasing the accuracy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

ATS displays: A reasoning visualization tool for expert systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selig, William John; Johannes, James D.

1990-01-01

Reasoning visualization is a useful tool that can help users better understand the inherently non-sequential logic of an expert system. While this is desirable in most all expert system applications, it is especially so for such critical systems as those destined for space-based operations. A hierarchical view of the expert system reasoning process and some characteristics of these various levels is presented. Also presented are Abstract Time Slice (ATS) displays, a tool to visualize the plethora of interrelated information available at the host inferencing language level of reasoning. The usefulness of this tool is illustrated with some examples from a prototype potable water expert system for possible use aboard Space Station Freedom.

Expert systems built by the Expert: An evaluation of OPS5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, Robert

1987-01-01

Two expert systems were written in OPS5 by the expert, a Ph.D. astronomer with no prior experience in artificial intelligence or expert systems, without the use of a knowledge engineer. The first system was built from scratch and uses 146 rules to check for duplication of scientific information within a pool of prospective observations. The second system was grafted onto another expert system and uses 149 additional rules to estimate the spacecraft and ground resources consumed by a set of prospective observations. The small vocabulary, the IF this occurs THEN do that logical structure of OPS5, and the ability to follow program execution allowed the expert to design and implement these systems with only the data structures and rules of another OPS5 system as an example. The modularity of the rules in OPS5 allowed the second system to modify the rulebase of the system onto which it was grafted without changing the code or the operation of that system. These experiences show that experts are able to develop their own expert systems due to the ease of programming and code reusability in OPS5.

The Expert Witness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Environmental Science and Technology, 1975

1975-01-01

As consumers organize and industry begins to feel the economic pinch of pollution control laws, litigation may increase as will the need for the expert witness. Discussed are the functions and preparations of expert witnesses, their role and conduct in judicial proceedings, and the techniques of being an expert witness. (BT)

Evidential Reasoning in Expert Systems for Image Analysis.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-02-01

techniques to image analysis (IA). There is growing evidence that these techniques offer significant improvements in image analysis , particularly in the...2) to provide a common framework for analysis, (3) to structure the ER process for major expert-system tasks in image analysis , and (4) to identify...approaches to three important tasks for expert systems in the domain of image analysis . This segment concluded with an assessment of the strengths

Conditioned responses elicited by experimentally produced cues for smoking.

PubMed

Mucha, R F; Pauli, P; Angrilli, A

1998-03-01

Several theories of drug-craving postulate that a signal for drug elicits conditioned responses. However, depending on the theory, a drug cue is said to elicit drug similar, drug compensatory, positive motivational, and negative motivational effects. Since animal data alone cannot tease apart the relative importance of different cue-related processes in the addict, we developed and examined a model of drug cues in the human based on a two-sound, differential conditioning procedure using smoking as the reinforcer. After multiple pairings of a sound with smoking, there was a preference for the smoking cue on a conditioned preference test. The acute effects of smoking (increased heart rate, respiration rate, skin conductance level, skin conductance fluctuations, EEG beta power and trapezius EMG, decreased alpha power) were not affected by the smoking cue, although subjects drew more on their cigarette in the presence of the smoking cue than in the presence of a control cue. Moreover, the cue did not change baseline behaviour except for a possible increase in EEG beta power and an increase in trapezius EMG at about the time when smoking should have occurred. The findings confirm the value of experimental models of drug cues in the human for comparing different cue phenomena in the dependent individual. They indicate that an acquired signal for drug in the human may elicit incentive motivational effects and associated preparatory motor responses in addition to possible conditioned tolerance.

Brain mechanisms of persuasion: how 'expert power' modulates memory and attitudes.

PubMed

Klucharev, Vasily; Smidts, Ale; Fernández, Guillén

2008-12-01

Human behaviour is affected by various forms of persuasion. The general persuasive effect of high expertise of the communicator, often referred to as 'expert power', is well documented. We found that a single exposure to a combination of an expert and an object leads to a long-lasting positive effect on memory for and attitude towards the object. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we probed the neural processes predicting these behavioural effects. Expert context was associated with distributed left-lateralized brain activity in prefrontal and temporal cortices related to active semantic elaboration. Furthermore, experts enhanced subsequent memory effects in the medial temporal lobe (i.e. in hippocampus and parahippocampal gyrus) involved in memory formation. Experts also affected subsequent attitude effects in the caudate nucleus involved in trustful behaviour, reward processing and learning. These results may suggest that the persuasive effect of experts is mediated by modulation of caudate activity resulting in a re-evaluation of the object in terms of its perceived value. Results extend our view of the functional role of the dorsal striatum in social interaction and enable us to make the first steps toward a neuroscientific model of persuasion.

Quiet eye gaze behavior of expert, and near-expert, baseball plate umpires.

PubMed

Millslagle, Duane G; Hines, Bridget B; Smith, Melissa S

2013-02-01

The quiet eye gaze behavior of 4 near-expert and 4 expert baseball umpires who called balls and strikes in simulated pitch-hit situations was assessed with a mobile eye cornea tracker system. Statistical analyses of the umpires' gaze behavior (fixation/pursuit tracking, saccades, and blinks)--onset, duration, offset, and frequency--were performed between and within 4 stages (pitcher's preparation, pitcher's delivery, ball in flight, and umpire call) by umpire's skill level. The results indicated that the quiet eye of expert umpires at onset of the pitcher's release point occurred earlier and was longer in duration than near-expert umpires. Expert expert umpires. The area outside the pitcher's ball release point may be the key environment cue for the behind-the-plate umpire.

Scientists in the courtroom: basic pointers for the expert scientific witness.

PubMed Central

Eaton, D L; Kalman, D

1994-01-01

The need for expert and unbiased participation in legal proceedings by physicians, industrial hygienists, toxicologists, environmental scientists, regulators, and similar professionals is hampered by lack of familiarity with the requirements of expert testimony and lack of opportunities for professional training in this activity. Drawing on material developed in a continuing education course offered by the University of Washington, we describe the role and process of being an expert witness and provide basic information regarding good professional practices pertaining to the testifying expert role. PMID:7895706

Comparison of two multi-criteria decision techniques for eliciting treatment preferences in people with neurological disorders.

PubMed

Ijzerman, Maarten J; van Til, Janine A; Snoek, Govert J

2008-12-01

To present and compare two multi-criteria decision techniques (analytic hierarchy process [AHP] and conjoint analysis [CA]) for eliciting preferences in patients with cervical spinal cord injury (SCI) who are eligible for surgical augmentation of hand function, either with or without implantation of a neuroprosthesis. The methods were compared in respect to attribute weights, overall preference, and practical experiences. Two previously designed and administered multi-criteria decision surveys in patients with SCI were compared and further analysed. Attributes and their weights in the AHP experiment were determined by an expert panel, followed by determination of the weights in the patient group. Attributes for the CA were selected and validated using an expert panel, piloted in six patients with SCI and subsequently administered to the same group of patients as participated in the AHP experiment. Both experiments showed the importance of non-outcome-related factors such as inpatient stay and number of surgical procedures. In particular, patients were less concerned with clinical outcomes in actual decision making. Overall preference in both the AHP and CA was in favor of tendon reconstruction (0.6 vs 0.4 for neuroprosthetic implantation). Both methods were easy to apply, but AHP was less easily explained and understood. Both the AHP and CA methods produced similar outcomes, which may have been caused by the obvious preferences of patients. CA may be preferred because of the holistic approach of considering all treatment attributes simultaneously and, hence, its power in simulating real market decisions. On the other hand, the AHP method is preferred as a hands-on, easy-to-implement task with immediate feedback to the respondent. This flexibility allows AHP to be used in shared decision making. However, the way the technique is composed results in many inconsistencies. Patients preferred CA but complained about the number of choice tasks.

Exploring Self-regulation of More or Less Expert College-Age Video Game Players: A Sequential Explanatory Design.

PubMed

Yilmaz Soylu, Meryem; Bruning, Roger H

2016-01-01

This study examined differences in self-regulation among college-age expert, moderately expert, and non-expert video game players in playing video games for fun. Winne's model of self-regulation (Winne, 2001) guided the study. The main assumption of this study was that expert video game players used more processes of self-regulation than the less-expert players. We surveyed 143 college students about their game playing frequency, habits, and use of self-regulation. Data analysis indicated that while playing recreational video games, expert gamers self-regulated more than moderately expert and non-expert players and moderately expert players used more processes of self-regulation than non-experts. Semi-structured interviews also were conducted with selected participants at each of the expertise levels. Qualitative follow-up analyses revealed five themes: (1) characteristics of expert video gamers, (2) conditions for playing a video game, (3) figuring out a game, (4) how gamers act and, (5) game context. Overall, findings indicated that playing a video game is a highly self-regulated activity and that becoming an expert video game player mobilizes multiple sets of self-regulation related skills and processes. These findings are seen as promising for educators desiring to encourage student self-regulation, because they indicate the possibility of supporting students via recreational video games by recognizing that their play includes processes of self-regulation.

Exploring Self-regulation of More or Less Expert College-Age Video Game Players: A Sequential Explanatory Design

PubMed Central

Yilmaz Soylu, Meryem; Bruning, Roger H.

2016-01-01

This study examined differences in self-regulation among college-age expert, moderately expert, and non-expert video game players in playing video games for fun. Winne's model of self-regulation (Winne, 2001) guided the study. The main assumption of this study was that expert video game players used more processes of self-regulation than the less-expert players. We surveyed 143 college students about their game playing frequency, habits, and use of self-regulation. Data analysis indicated that while playing recreational video games, expert gamers self-regulated more than moderately expert and non-expert players and moderately expert players used more processes of self-regulation than non-experts. Semi-structured interviews also were conducted with selected participants at each of the expertise levels. Qualitative follow-up analyses revealed five themes: (1) characteristics of expert video gamers, (2) conditions for playing a video game, (3) figuring out a game, (4) how gamers act and, (5) game context. Overall, findings indicated that playing a video game is a highly self-regulated activity and that becoming an expert video game player mobilizes multiple sets of self-regulation related skills and processes. These findings are seen as promising for educators desiring to encourage student self-regulation, because they indicate the possibility of supporting students via recreational video games by recognizing that their play includes processes of self-regulation. PMID:27729881

Ethical Expert Systems

PubMed Central

Victoroff, Michael S.

1985-01-01

The title is a double entendre. The discussion approaches expert systems from two directions: “What ethical hazards are created by expert systems in medicine?” and “Would it be ethical to design an expert system for solving problems in bioethics?” Computers present new ethical problems to society, some of which are unprecedented. These can be categorized under several rubrics. The paper describes a rudimentary scheme for understanding ethical issues raised by computers, in general, and medical expert systems, in particular. It focuses on bioethical implications of AI in medicine; explores norms, assumptions and taboos; and highlights certain ethical pitfalls. Principles are elucidated, for building ethically sound systems. Finally, a proposal is discussed, for the design of an expert system for moral problem solving, and the ethical implications of this notion are analyzed.

Brain response to empathy-eliciting scenarios involving pain in incarcerated psychopaths

PubMed Central

Decety, Jean; Skelly, Laurie R.; Kiehl, Kent A.

2013-01-01

Context A marked lack of empathy is a hallmark characteristic of individuals with psychopathy. However, neural response associated to empathic processing has not yet been directly examined in psychopathy especially in response to the perception of other people in pain and distress. Objective To identify potential differences in patterns of neural activity in incarcerated psychopaths and incarcerated controls during the perception of empathy-eliciting stimuli depicting other people in pain. Design In a case-control study, brain activation patterns elicited by dynamic stimuli depicting individuals being harmed and facial expression of pain were compared between incarcerated psychopaths and incarcerated controls. Setting Participants were scanned in on the grounds of a correctional facility using the Mind Research Network's mobile 1.5 T MRI system. Participants Eighty incarcerated males were classified according to scores on the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) as high (n = 27; PCL-R =30), intermediate (n = 28; PCL-R between 21–29), or low (n = 25; PCL-R ≤20) on psychopathy. Main Outcome Measure Neuro-hemodynamic response to empathy-eliciting dynamic scenarios revealed by functional magnetic resonance imaging. Results Psychopaths exhibited significantly less activation in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, lateral orbitofrontal cortex, and periaqueductal gray relative to controls, but showed greater activation in the insula. Conclusion In response to pain cues expressed by others, psychopaths exhibit deficits in vmPFC and OFC regardless of stimulus type, but display selective impairment in processing facial cues of distress in regions associated with cognitive mentalizing. PMID:23615636

Using expert opinion surveys to rank threats to endangered species: a case study with sea turtles.

PubMed

Donlan, C Josh; Wingfield, Dana K; Crowder, Larry B; Wilcox, Chris

2010-12-01

Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet-based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at-sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial-based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more-striking pattern was with hazard-based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias-controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans. �

Developing Socio-Cultural Scaffolding Model to Elicit Learners's Speech Production

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Englishtina, Inti

2015-01-01

This study is concerned with developing scaffolding model to elicit bilingual kindergarten children's English speech production. It is aimed at describing what the teachers need in eliciting their students' speech production; how a scaffolding model should be developed to elicit the children's speech production; and how effective is the…

Eliciting Spontaneous Speech in Bilingual Students: Methods & Techniques.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cornejo, Ricardo J.; And Others

Intended to provide practical information pertaining to methods and techniques for speech elicitation and production, the monograph offers specific methods and techniques to elicit spontaneous speech in bilingual students. Chapter 1, "Traditional Methodologies for Language Production and Recording," presents an overview of studies using…

Expert music performance: cognitive, neural, and developmental bases.

PubMed

Brown, Rachel M; Zatorre, Robert J; Penhune, Virginia B

2015-01-01

In this chapter, we explore what happens in the brain of an expert musician during performance. Understanding expert music performance is interesting to cognitive neuroscientists not only because it tests the limits of human memory and movement, but also because studying expert musicianship can help us understand skilled human behavior in general. In this chapter, we outline important facets of our current understanding of the cognitive and neural basis for music performance, and developmental factors that may underlie musical ability. We address three main questions. (1) What is expert performance? (2) How do musicians achieve expert-level performance? (3) How does expert performance come about? We address the first question by describing musicians' ability to remember, plan, execute, and monitor their performances in order to perform music accurately and expressively. We address the second question by reviewing evidence for possible cognitive and neural mechanisms that may underlie or contribute to expert music performance, including the integration of sound and movement, feedforward and feedback motor control processes, expectancy, and imagery. We further discuss how neural circuits in auditory, motor, parietal, subcortical, and frontal cortex all contribute to different facets of musical expertise. Finally, we address the third question by reviewing evidence for the heritability of musical expertise and for how expertise develops through training and practice. We end by discussing outlooks for future work. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards elicitation of users requirements for hospital information system: from a care process modelling technique to a web based collaborative tool.

PubMed Central

Staccini, Pascal M.; Joubert, Michel; Quaranta, Jean-Francois; Fieschi, Marius

2002-01-01

Growing attention is being given to the use of process modeling methodology for user requirements elicitation. In the analysis phase of hospital information systems, the usefulness of care-process models has been investigated to evaluate the conceptual applicability and practical understandability by clinical staff and members of users teams. Nevertheless, there still remains a gap between users and analysts in their mutual ability to share conceptual views and vocabulary, keeping the meaning of clinical context while providing elements for analysis. One of the solutions for filling this gap is to consider the process model itself in the role of a hub as a centralized means of facilitating communication between team members. Starting with a robust and descriptive technique for process modeling called IDEF0/SADT, we refined the basic data model by extracting concepts from ISO 9000 process analysis and from enterprise ontology. We defined a web-based architecture to serve as a collaborative tool and implemented it using an object-oriented database. The prospects of such a tool are discussed notably regarding to its ability to generate data dictionaries and to be used as a navigation tool through the medium of hospital-wide documentation. PMID:12463921

Towards elicitation of users requirements for hospital information system: from a care process modelling technique to a web based collaborative tool.

PubMed

Staccini, Pascal M; Joubert, Michel; Quaranta, Jean-Francois; Fieschi, Marius

2002-01-01

Growing attention is being given to the use of process modeling methodology for user requirements elicitation. In the analysis phase of hospital information systems, the usefulness of care-process models has been investigated to evaluate the conceptual applicability and practical understandability by clinical staff and members of users teams. Nevertheless, there still remains a gap between users and analysts in their mutual ability to share conceptual views and vocabulary, keeping the meaning of clinical context while providing elements for analysis. One of the solutions for filling this gap is to consider the process model itself in the role of a hub as a centralized means of facilitating communication between team members. Starting with a robust and descriptive technique for process modeling called IDEF0/SADT, we refined the basic data model by extracting concepts from ISO 9000 process analysis and from enterprise ontology. We defined a web-based architecture to serve as a collaborative tool and implemented it using an object-oriented database. The prospects of such a tool are discussed notably regarding to its ability to generate data dictionaries and to be used as a navigation tool through the medium of hospital-wide documentation.

Debugging expert systems using a dynamically created hypertext network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyle, Craig D. B.; Schuette, John F.

1991-01-01

The labor intensive nature of expert system writing and debugging motivated this study. The hypothesis is that a hypertext based debugging tool is easier and faster than one traditional tool, the graphical execution trace. HESDE (Hypertext Expert System Debugging Environment) uses Hypertext nodes and links to represent the objects and their relationships created during the execution of a rule based expert system. HESDE operates transparently on top of the CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) rule based system environment and is used during the knowledge base debugging process. During the execution process HESDE builds an execution trace. Use of facts, rules, and their values are automatically stored in a Hypertext network for each execution cycle. After the execution process, the knowledge engineer may access the Hypertext network and browse the network created. The network may be viewed in terms of rules, facts, and values. An experiment was conducted to compare HESDE with a graphical debugging environment. Subjects were given representative tasks. For speed and accuracy, in eight of the eleven tasks given to subjects, HESDE was significantly better.

Photolithography diagnostic expert systems: a systematic approach to problem solving in a wafer fabrication facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherwax Scott, Caroline; Tsareff, Christopher R.

1990-06-01

One of the main goals of process engineering in the semiconductor industry is to improve wafer fabrication productivity and throughput. Engineers must work continuously toward this goal in addition to performing sustaining and development tasks. To accomplish these objectives, managers must make efficient use of engineering resources. One of the tools being used to improve efficiency is the diagnostic expert system. Expert systems are knowledge based computer programs designed to lead the user through the analysis and solution of a problem. Several photolithography diagnostic expert systems have been implemented at the Hughes Technology Center to provide a systematic approach to process problem solving. This systematic approach was achieved by documenting cause and effect analyses for a wide variety of processing problems. This knowledge was organized in the form of IF-THEN rules, a common structure for knowledge representation in expert system technology. These rules form the knowledge base of the expert system which is stored in the computer. The systems also include the problem solving methodology used by the expert when addressing a problem in his area of expertise. Operators now use the expert systems to solve many process problems without engineering assistance. The systems also facilitate the collection of appropriate data to assist engineering in solving unanticipated problems. Currently, several expert systems have been implemented to cover all aspects of the photolithography process. The systems, which have been in use for over a year, include wafer surface preparation (HMDS), photoresist coat and softbake, align and expose on a wafer stepper, and develop inspection. These systems are part of a plan to implement an expert system diagnostic environment throughout the wafer fabrication facility. In this paper, the systems' construction is described, including knowledge acquisition, rule construction, knowledge refinement, testing, and evaluation. The roles

International recommendations for national patient safety incident reporting systems: an expert Delphi consensus-building process.

PubMed

Howell, Ann-Marie; Burns, Elaine M; Hull, Louise; Mayer, Erik; Sevdalis, Nick; Darzi, Ara

2017-02-01

Patient safety incident reporting systems (PSRS) have been established for over a decade, but uncertainty remains regarding the role that they can and ought to play in quantifying healthcare-related harm and improving care. To establish international, expert consensus on the purpose of PSRS regarding monitoring and learning from incidents and developing recommendations for their future role. After a scoping review of the literature, semi-structured interviews with experts in PSRS were conducted. Based on these findings, a survey-based questionnaire was developed and subsequently completed by a larger expert panel. Using a Delphi approach, consensus was reached regarding the ideal role of PSRSs. Recommendations for best practice were devised. Forty recommendations emerged from the Delphi procedure on the role and use of PSRS. Experts agreed reporting system should not be used as an epidemiological tool to monitor the rate of harm over time or to appraise the relative safety of hospitals. They agreed reporting is a valuable mechanism for identifying organisational safety needs. The benefit of a national system was clear with respect to medication error, device failures, hospital-acquired infections and never events as these problems often require solutions at a national level. Experts recommended training for senior healthcare professionals in incident investigation. Consensus recommendation was for hospitals to take responsibility for creating safety solutions locally that could be shared nationally. We obtained reasonable consensus among experts on aims and specifications of PSRS. This information can be used to reflect on existing and future PSRS, and their role within the wider patient safety landscape. The role of PSRS as instruments for learning needs to be elaborated and developed further internationally. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Group prioritisation with unknown expert weights in incomplete linguistic context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Dong; Cheng, Faxin; Zhou, Zhili; Wang, Juan

2017-09-01

In this paper, we study a group prioritisation problem in situations when the expert weights are completely unknown and their judgement preferences are linguistic and incomplete. Starting from the theory of relative entropy (RE) and multiplicative consistency, an optimisation model is provided for deriving an individual priority vector without estimating the missing value(s) of an incomplete linguistic preference relation. In order to address the unknown expert weights in the group aggregating process, we define two new kinds of expert weight indicators based on RE: proximity entropy weight and similarity entropy weight. Furthermore, a dynamic-adjusting algorithm (DAA) is proposed to obtain an objective expert weight vector and capture the dynamic properties involved in it. Unlike the extant literature of group prioritisation, the proposed RE approach does not require pre-allocation of expert weights and can solve incomplete preference relations. An interesting finding is that once all the experts express their preference relations, the final expert weight vector derived from the DAA is fixed irrespective of the initial settings of expert weights. Finally, an application example is conducted to validate the effectiveness and robustness of the RE approach.

Freeze or Flee? Negative Stimuli Elicit Selective Responding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Estes, Zachary; Verges, Michelle

2008-01-01

Humans preferentially attend to negative stimuli. A consequence of this automatic vigilance for negative valence is that negative words elicit slower responses than neutral or positive words on a host of cognitive tasks. Some researchers have speculated that negative stimuli elicit a general suppression of motor activity, akin to the freezing…

Expert searcher, teacher, content manager, and patient advocate: an exploratory study of clinical librarian roles

PubMed Central

Tan, Maria C.; Maggio, Lauren A.

2013-01-01

Objective: The research explored the roles of practicing clinical librarians embedded in a patient care team. Methods: Six clinical librarians from Canada and one from the United States were interviewed to elicit detailed descriptions of their clinical roles and responsibilities and the context in which these were performed. Results: Participants were embedded in a wide range of clinical service areas, working with a diverse complement of health professionals. As clinical librarians, participants wore many hats, including expert searcher, teacher, content manager, and patient advocate. Unique aspects of how these roles played out included a sense of urgency surrounding searching activities, the broad dissemination of responses to clinical questions, and leverage of the roles of expert searcher, teacher, and content manager to advocate for patients. Conclusions: Detailed role descriptions of clinical librarians embedded in patient care teams suggest possible new practices for existing clinical librarians, provide direction for training new librarians working in patient care environments, and raise awareness of the clinical librarian specialty among current and budding health information professionals. PMID:23405048

Figuring the World of Designing: Expert Participation in Elementary Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kangas, Kaiju; Seitamaa-Hakkarainen, Pirita; Hakkarainen, Kai

2013-01-01

The purpose of the present article was to analyze the interaction between elementary students and a professional design expert. The expert was present in the classroom, facilitating a collaborative lamp designing process together with the teacher. Using the notion of "figured worlds" (Holland et al. 1998), we explored how learning could be…

Separable Processes Before, During, and After the N400 Elicited by Previously Inferred and New Information: Evidence from Time-Frequency Decompositions

PubMed Central

Steele, Vaughn R.; Bernat, Edward M.; van den Broek, Paul; Collins, Paul F.; Patrick, Christopher J.; Marsolek, Chad J.

2012-01-01

Successful comprehension during reading often requires inferring information not explicitly presented. This information is readily accessible when subsequently encountered, and a neural correlate of this is an attenuation of the N400 event-related potential (ERP). We used ERPs and time-frequency (TF) analysis to investigate neural correlates of processing inferred information after a causal coherence inference had been generated during text comprehension. Participants read short texts, some of which promoted inference generation. After each text, they performed lexical decisions to target words that were unrelated or inference-related to the preceding text. Consistent with previous findings, inference-related words elicited an attenuated N400 relative to unrelated words. TF analyses revealed unique contributions to the N400 from activity occurring at 1–6 Hz (theta) and 0–2 Hz (delta), supporting the view that multiple, sequential processes underlie the N400. PMID:23165117

Separable processes before, during, and after the N400 elicited by previously inferred and new information: evidence from time-frequency decompositions.

PubMed

Steele, Vaughn R; Bernat, Edward M; van den Broek, Paul; Collins, Paul F; Patrick, Christopher J; Marsolek, Chad J

2013-01-25

Successful comprehension during reading often requires inferring information not explicitly presented. This information is readily accessible when subsequently encountered, and a neural correlate of this is an attenuation of the N400 event-related potential (ERP). We used ERPs and time-frequency (TF) analysis to investigate neural correlates of processing inferred information after a causal coherence inference had been generated during text comprehension. Participants read short texts, some of which promoted inference generation. After each text, they performed lexical decisions to target words that were unrelated or inference-related to the preceding text. Consistent with previous findings, inference-related words elicited an attenuated N400 relative to unrelated words. TF analyses revealed unique contributions to the N400 from activity occurring at 1-6 Hz (theta) and 0-2 Hz (delta), supporting the view that multiple, sequential processes underlie the N400. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Take-the-best in expert-novice decision strategies for residential burglary.

PubMed

Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Dhami, Mandeep K

2009-02-01

We examined the decision strategies and cue use of experts and novices in a consequential domain: crime. Three participant groups decided which of two residential properties was more likely to be burgled, on the basis of eight cues such as location of the property. The two expert groups were experienced burglars and police officers, and the novice group was composed of graduate students. We found that experts' choices were best predicted by a lexicographic heuristic strategy called take-the-best that implies noncompensatory information processing, whereas novices' choices were best predicted by a weighted additive linear strategy that implies compensatory processing. The two expert groups, however, differed in the cues they considered important in making their choices, and the police officers were actually more similar to novices in this regard. These findings extend the literature on judgment, decision making, and expertise, and have implications for criminal justice policy.

What makes an art expert? Emotion and evaluation in art appreciation.

PubMed

Leder, Helmut; Gerger, Gernot; Brieber, David; Schwarz, Norbert

2014-01-01

Why do some people like negative, or even disgusting and provocative artworks? Art expertise, believed to influence the interplay among cognitive and emotional processing underlying aesthetic experience, could be the answer. We studied how art expertise modulates the effect of positive-and negative-valenced artworks on aesthetic and emotional responses, measured with self-reports and facial electromyography (EMG). Unsurprisingly, emotionally-valenced art evoked coherent valence as well as corrugator supercilii and zygamoticus major activations. However, compared to non-experts, experts showed attenuated reactions, with less extreme valence ratings and corrugator supercilii activations and they liked negative art more. This pattern was also observed for a control set of International Affective Picture System (IAPS) pictures suggesting that art experts show general processing differences for visual stimuli. Thus, much in line with the Kantian notion that an aesthetic stance is emotionally distanced, art experts exhibited a distinct pattern of attenuated emotional responses.

Winning the game: brain processes in expert, young elite and amateur table tennis players.

PubMed

Wolf, Sebastian; Brölz, Ellen; Scholz, David; Ramos-Murguialday, Ander; Keune, Philipp M; Hautzinger, Martin; Birbaumer, Niels; Strehl, Ute

2014-01-01

(1) compared with amateurs and young elite, expert table tennis players are characterized by enhanced cortical activation in the motor and fronto-parietal cortex during motor imagery in response to table tennis videos; (2) in elite athletes, world rank points are associated with stronger cortical activation. To this aim, electroencephalographic data were recorded in 14 expert, 15 amateur and 15 young elite right-handed table tennis players. All subjects watched videos of a serve and imagined themselves responding with a specific table tennis stroke. With reference to a baseline period, power decrease/increase of the sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) during the pretask- and task period indexed the cortical activation/deactivation (event-related desynchronization/synchronization, ERD/ERS). Regarding hypothesis (1), 8-10 Hz SMR ERD was stronger in elite athletes than in amateurs with an intermediate ERD in young elite athletes in the motor cortex. Regarding hypothesis (2), there was no correlation between ERD/ERS in the motor cortex and world rank points in elite experts, but a weaker ERD in the fronto-parietal cortex was associated with higher world rank points. These results suggest that motor skill in table tennis is associated with focused excitability of the motor cortex during reaction, movement planning and execution with high attentional demands. Among elite experts, less activation of the fronto-parietal attention network may be necessary to become a world champion.

Action specificity increases anticipatory performance and the expert advantage in natural interceptive tasks.

PubMed

Mann, David L; Abernethy, Bruce; Farrow, Damian

2010-09-01

The relationship between perception-action coupling and anticipatory skill in an interceptive task was examined using an in-situ temporal occlusion paradigm. Skilled and novice cricket batsmen were required to predict the direction of balls bowled towards them under four counterbalanced response conditions of increasing perception-action coupling: (i) verbal, (ii) lower-body movement only, (iii) full-body movement (no bat), and (iv) full-body movement with bat (i.e., the usual batting response). Skilled but not novice anticipation was found to improve as a function of coupling when responses were based on either no ball-flight, or early ball-flight information, with a response requiring even the lowest degree of body movement found to enhance anticipation when compared to a verbal prediction. Most importantly, a full-body movement using a bat elicited greater anticipation than an equivalent movement with no bat. This result highlights the important role that the requirement and/or opportunity to make bat-ball interception may play in eliciting skill differences for anticipation. Results verify the importance of using experimental conditions and task demands that closely reflect the natural performance environment in order to reveal the full nature of the expert advantage. 2010. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Intelligent interfaces for expert systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Villarreal, James A.; Wang, Lui

1988-01-01

Vital to the success of an expert system is an interface to the user which performs intelligently. A generic intelligent interface is being developed for expert systems. This intelligent interface was developed around the in-house developed Expert System for the Flight Analysis System (ESFAS). The Flight Analysis System (FAS) is comprised of 84 configuration controlled FORTRAN subroutines that are used in the preflight analysis of the space shuttle. In order to use FAS proficiently, a person must be knowledgeable in the areas of flight mechanics, the procedures involved in deploying a certain payload, and an overall understanding of the FAS. ESFAS, still in its developmental stage, is taking into account much of this knowledge. The generic intelligent interface involves the integration of a speech recognizer and synthesizer, a preparser, and a natural language parser to ESFAS. The speech recognizer being used is capable of recognizing 1000 words of connected speech. The natural language parser is a commercial software package which uses caseframe instantiation in processing the streams of words from the speech recognizer or the keyboard. The systems configuration is described along with capabilities and drawbacks.

A Semiautomated Framework for Integrating Expert Knowledge into Disease Marker Identification

DOE PAGES

Wang, Jing; Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Matzke, Melissa M.; ...

2013-01-01

Background . The availability of large complex data sets generated by high throughput technologies has enabled the recent proliferation of disease biomarker studies. However, a recurring problem in deriving biological information from large data sets is how to best incorporate expert knowledge into the biomarker selection process. Objective . To develop a generalizable framework that can incorporate expert knowledge into data-driven processes in a semiautomated way while providing a metric for optimization in a biomarker selection scheme. Methods . The framework was implemented as a pipeline consisting of five components for the identification of signatures from integrated clustering (ISIC). Expertmore » knowledge was integrated into the biomarker identification process using the combination of two distinct approaches; a distance-based clustering approach and an expert knowledge-driven functional selection. Results . The utility of the developed framework ISIC was demonstrated on proteomics data from a study of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Biomarker candidates were identified in a mouse model using ISIC and validated in a study of a human cohort. Conclusions . Expert knowledge can be introduced into a biomarker discovery process in different ways to enhance the robustness of selected marker candidates. Developing strategies for extracting orthogonal and robust features from large data sets increases the chances of success in biomarker identification.« less

Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles' nesting grounds.

PubMed

Fuentes, M M P B; Cinner, J E

2010-12-01

Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles' terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world's largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles' reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A software engineering approach to expert system design and verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bochsler, Daniel C.; Goodwin, Mary Ann

1988-01-01

Software engineering design and verification methods for developing expert systems are not yet well defined. Integration of expert system technology into software production environments will require effective software engineering methodologies to support the entire life cycle of expert systems. The software engineering methods used to design and verify an expert system, RENEX, is discussed. RENEX demonstrates autonomous rendezvous and proximity operations, including replanning trajectory events and subsystem fault detection, onboard a space vehicle during flight. The RENEX designers utilized a number of software engineering methodologies to deal with the complex problems inherent in this system. An overview is presented of the methods utilized. Details of the verification process receive special emphasis. The benefits and weaknesses of the methods for supporting the development life cycle of expert systems are evaluated, and recommendations are made based on the overall experiences with the methods.

Expert Biogeographers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bednarski, Marsha

2006-01-01

This article describes an alternative way of teaching about biomes by having students become expert biogeographers. In order to become experts students need to first find out what a biogeographer does. Doing an online search lets students find out for themselves what the responsibilities are of people who work in this field. A good place to visit…

Brain mechanisms of persuasion: how ‘expert power’ modulates memory and attitudes

PubMed Central

Smidts, Ale; Fernández, Guillén

2008-01-01

Human behaviour is affected by various forms of persuasion. The general persuasive effect of high expertise of the communicator, often referred to as ’expert power’, is well documented. We found that a single exposure to a combination of an expert and an object leads to a long-lasting positive effect on memory for and attitude towards the object. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we probed the neural processes predicting these behavioural effects. Expert context was associated with distributed left-lateralized brain activity in prefrontal and temporal cortices related to active semantic elaboration. Furthermore, experts enhanced subsequent memory effects in the medial temporal lobe (i.e. in hippocampus and parahippocampal gyrus) involved in memory formation. Experts also affected subsequent attitude effects in the caudate nucleus involved in trustful behaviour, reward processing and learning. These results may suggest that the persuasive effect of experts is mediated by modulation of caudate activity resulting in a re-evaluation of the object in terms of its perceived value. Results extend our view of the functional role of the dorsal striatum in social interaction and enable us to make the first steps toward a neuroscientific model of persuasion. PMID:19015077

Planning bioinformatics workflows using an expert system

PubMed Central

Chen, Xiaoling; Chang, Jeffrey T.

2017-01-01

Abstract Motivation: Bioinformatic analyses are becoming formidably more complex due to the increasing number of steps required to process the data, as well as the proliferation of methods that can be used in each step. To alleviate this difficulty, pipelines are commonly employed. However, pipelines are typically implemented to automate a specific analysis, and thus are difficult to use for exploratory analyses requiring systematic changes to the software or parameters used. Results: To automate the development of pipelines, we have investigated expert systems. We created the Bioinformatics ExperT SYstem (BETSY) that includes a knowledge base where the capabilities of bioinformatics software is explicitly and formally encoded. BETSY is a backwards-chaining rule-based expert system comprised of a data model that can capture the richness of biological data, and an inference engine that reasons on the knowledge base to produce workflows. Currently, the knowledge base is populated with rules to analyze microarray and next generation sequencing data. We evaluated BETSY and found that it could generate workflows that reproduce and go beyond previously published bioinformatics results. Finally, a meta-investigation of the workflows generated from the knowledge base produced a quantitative measure of the technical burden imposed by each step of bioinformatics analyses, revealing the large number of steps devoted to the pre-processing of data. In sum, an expert system approach can facilitate exploratory bioinformatic analysis by automating the development of workflows, a task that requires significant domain expertise. Availability and Implementation: https://github.com/jefftc/changlab Contact: jeffrey.t.chang@uth.tmc.edu PMID:28052928

A Qualitative Approach to the Evaluation of Expert Systems Shells.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Slawson, Dean A.; And Others

This study explores an approach to the evaluation of expert system shells using case studies. The methodology and some of the results of an evaluation of the prototype development of an expert system using the shell "M1" are detailed, including a description of the participants and the project, the data collection process and materials,…

Winning the game: brain processes in expert, young elite and amateur table tennis players

PubMed Central

Wolf, Sebastian; Brölz, Ellen; Scholz, David; Ramos-Murguialday, Ander; Keune, Philipp M.; Hautzinger, Martin; Birbaumer, Niels; Strehl, Ute

2014-01-01

This study tested two hypotheses: (1) compared with amateurs and young elite, expert table tennis players are characterized by enhanced cortical activation in the motor and fronto-parietal cortex during motor imagery in response to table tennis videos; (2) in elite athletes, world rank points are associated with stronger cortical activation. To this aim, electroencephalographic data were recorded in 14 expert, 15 amateur and 15 young elite right-handed table tennis players. All subjects watched videos of a serve and imagined themselves responding with a specific table tennis stroke. With reference to a baseline period, power decrease/increase of the sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) during the pretask- and task period indexed the cortical activation/deactivation (event-related desynchronization/synchronization, ERD/ERS). Regarding hypothesis (1), 8–10 Hz SMR ERD was stronger in elite athletes than in amateurs with an intermediate ERD in young elite athletes in the motor cortex. Regarding hypothesis (2), there was no correlation between ERD/ERS in the motor cortex and world rank points in elite experts, but a weaker ERD in the fronto-parietal cortex was associated with higher world rank points. These results suggest that motor skill in table tennis is associated with focused excitability of the motor cortex during reaction, movement planning and execution with high attentional demands. Among elite experts, less activation of the fronto-parietal attention network may be necessary to become a world champion. PMID:25386126

Cleavage-Independent HIV-1 Trimers From CHO Cell Lines Elicit Robust Autologous Tier 2 Neutralizing Antibodies

PubMed Central

Bale, Shridhar; Martiné, Alexandra; Wilson, Richard; Behrens, Anna-Janina; Le Fourn, Valérie; de Val, Natalia; Sharma, Shailendra K.; Tran, Karen; Torres, Jonathan L.; Girod, Pierre-Alain; Ward, Andrew B.; Crispin, Max; Wyatt, Richard T.

2018-01-01

Native flexibly linked (NFL) HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein (Env) trimers are cleavage-independent and display a native-like, well-folded conformation that preferentially displays broadly neutralizing determinants. The NFL platform simplifies large-scale production of Env by eliminating the need to co-transfect the precursor-cleaving protease, furin that is required by the cleavage-dependent SOSIP trimers. Here, we report the development of a CHO-M cell line that expressed BG505 NFL trimers at a high level of homogeneity and yields of ~1.8 g/l. BG505 NFL trimers purified by single-step lectin-affinity chromatography displayed a native-like closed structure, efficient recognition by trimer-preferring bNAbs, no recognition by non-neutralizing CD4 binding site-directed and V3-directed antibodies, long-term stability, and proper N-glycan processing. Following negative-selection, formulation in ISCOMATRIX adjuvant and inoculation into rabbits, the trimers rapidly elicited potent autologous tier 2 neutralizing antibodies. These antibodies targeted the N-glycan “hole” naturally present on the BG505 Env proximal to residues at positions 230, 241, and 289. The BG505 NFL trimers that did not expose V3 in vitro, elicited low-to-no tier 1 virus neutralization in vivo, indicating that they remained intact during the immunization process, not exposing V3. In addition, BG505 NFL and BG505 SOSIP trimers expressed from 293F cells, when formulated in Adjuplex adjuvant, elicited equivalent BG505 tier 2 autologous neutralizing titers. These titers were lower in potency when compared to the titers elicited by CHO-M cell derived trimers. In addition, increased neutralization of tier 1 viruses was detected. Taken together, these data indicate that both adjuvant and cell-type expression can affect the elicitation of tier 2 and tier 1 neutralizing responses in vivo.

Educational Policy Making in the State Legislature: Legislator as Policy Expert.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weaver, Sue Wells; Geske, Terry G.

1997-01-01

Examines the legislator's role as education policy expert in the legislative policymaking process. In a study of Louisiana state legislators, analysis of variance was used to determine expert legislators' degree of influence in formulating educational policy, given differences in policy types, information sources, and legislators' work roles.…

Effect of elicitation on growth, respiration, and nutrient uptake of root and cell suspension cultures of Hyoscyamus muticus.

PubMed

Carvalho, Edgard B; Curtis, Wayne R

2002-01-01

The elicitation of Hyoscyamus muticus root and cell suspension cultures by fungal elicitor from Rhizoctonia solani causes dramatic changes in respiration, nutrient yields, and growth. Cells and mature root tissues have similar specific oxygen uptake rates (SOUR) before and after the onset of the elicitation process. Cell suspension SOUR were 11 and 18 micromol O2/g FW x h for non-elicited control and elicited cultures, respectively. Mature root SOUR were 11 and 24 micromol O2/g FW x h for control and elicited tissue, respectively. Tissue growth is significantly reduced upon the addition of elicitor to these cultures. Inorganic yield remains fairly constant, whereas yield on sugar is reduced from 0.532 to 0.352 g dry biomass per g sugar for roots and 0.614 to 0.440 g dry biomass per g sugar for cells. This reduction in yield results from increased energy requirements for the defense response. Growth reduction is reflected in a reduction in root meristem (tip) SOUR, which decreased from 189 to 70 micromol O2/g FW x h upon elicitation. Therefore, despite the increase in total respiration, the maximum local oxygen fluxes are reduced as a result of the reduction in metabolic activity at the meristem. This distribution of oxygen uptake throughout the mature tissue could reduce mass transfer requirements during elicited production. However, this was not found to be the case for sesquiterpene elicitation, where production of lubimin and solavetivone were found to increase linearly up to oxygen partial pressures of 40% O2 in air. SOUR is shown to similarly increase in both bubble column and tubular reactors despite severe mass transfer limitations, suggesting the possibility of metabolically induced increases in tissue convective transport during elicitation.

Expert systems in civil engineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostem, C.N.; Maher, M.L.

1986-01-01

This book presents the papers given at a symposium on expert systems in civil engineering. Topics considered at the symposium included problem solving using expert system techniques, construction schedule analysis, decision making and risk analysis, seismic risk analysis systems, an expert system for inactive hazardous waste site characterization, an expert system for site selection, knowledge engineering, and knowledge-based expert systems in seismic analysis.

Eliciting end-user expectations to guide the implementation process of a new electronic health record: A case study using concept mapping.

PubMed

Joukes, Erik; Cornet, Ronald; de Bruijne, Martine C; de Keizer, Nicolette F

2016-03-01

To evaluate the usability of concept mapping to elicit the expectations of healthcare professionals regarding the implementation of a new electronic health record (EHR). These expectations need to be taken into account during the implementation process to maximize the chance of success of the EHR. Two university hospitals in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, in the preparation phase of jointly implementing a new EHR. During this study the hospitals had different methods of documenting patient information (legacy EHR vs. paper-based records). Concept mapping was used to determine and classify the expectations of healthcare professionals regarding the implementation of a new EHR. A multidisciplinary group of 46 healthcare professionals from both university hospitals participated in this study. Expectations were elicited in focus groups, their relevance and feasibility were assessed through a web-questionnaire. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling and clustering methods were used to identify clusters of expectations. We found nine clusters of expectations, each covering an important topic to enable the healthcare professionals to work properly with the new EHR once implemented: usability, data use and reuse, facility conditions, data registration, support, training, internal communication, patients, and collaboration. Average importance and feasibility of each of the clusters was high. Concept mapping is an effective method to find topics that, according to healthcare professionals, are important to consider during the implementation of a new EHR. The method helps to combine the input of a large group of stakeholders at limited efforts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Video Elicitation Interviews: A Qualitative Research Method for Investigating Physician-Patient Interactions

PubMed Central

Henry, Stephen G.; Fetters, Michael D.

2012-01-01

We describe the concept and method of video elicitation interviews and provide practical guidance for primary care researchers who want to use this qualitative method to investigate physician-patient interactions. During video elicitation interviews, researchers interview patients or physicians about a recent clinical interaction using a video recording of that interaction as an elicitation tool. Video elicitation is useful because it allows researchers to integrate data about the content of physician-patient interactions gained from video recordings with data about participants’ associated thoughts, beliefs, and emotions gained from elicitation interviews. This method also facilitates investigation of specific events or moments during interactions. Video elicitation interviews are logistically demanding and time consuming, and they should be reserved for research questions that cannot be fully addressed using either standard interviews or video recordings in isolation. As many components of primary care fall into this category, high-quality video elicitation interviews can be an important method for understanding and improving physician-patient interactions in primary care. PMID:22412003

Video elicitation interviews: a qualitative research method for investigating physician-patient interactions.

PubMed

Henry, Stephen G; Fetters, Michael D

2012-01-01

We describe the concept and method of video elicitation interviews and provide practical guidance for primary care researchers who want to use this qualitative method to investigate physician-patient interactions. During video elicitation interviews, researchers interview patients or physicians about a recent clinical interaction using a video recording of that interaction as an elicitation tool. Video elicitation is useful because it allows researchers to integrate data about the content of physician-patient interactions gained from video recordings with data about participants' associated thoughts, beliefs, and emotions gained from elicitation interviews. This method also facilitates investigation of specific events or moments during interactions. Video elicitation interviews are logistically demanding and time consuming, and they should be reserved for research questions that cannot be fully addressed using either standard interviews or video recordings in isolation. As many components of primary care fall into this category, high-quality video elicitation interviews can be an important method for understanding and improving physician-patient interactions in primary care.

Expert Witness Participation in Civil and Criminal Proceedings.

PubMed

Paul, Stephan R; Narang, Sandeep K

2017-03-01

The interests of the public and both the medical and legal professions are best served when scientifically sound and unbiased expert witness testimony is readily available in civil and criminal proceedings. As members of the medical community, patient advocates, and private citizens, pediatricians have ethical and professional obligations to assist in the civil and criminal judicial processes. This policy statement offers recommendations on advocacy, education, research, qualifications, standards, and ethical business practices all aimed at improving expert testimony. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Combining Analytical Hierarchy Process and Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering in Search of Expert Consensus in Green Corridors Development Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shapira, Aviad; Shoshany, Maxim; Nir-Goldenberg, Sigal

2013-07-01

Environmental management and planning are instrumental in resolving conflicts arising between societal needs for economic development on the one hand and for open green landscapes on the other hand. Allocating green corridors between fragmented core green areas may provide a partial solution to these conflicts. Decisions regarding green corridor development require the assessment of alternative allocations based on multiple criteria evaluations. Analytical Hierarchy Process provides a methodology for both a structured and consistent extraction of such evaluations and for the search for consensus among experts regarding weights assigned to the different criteria. Implementing this methodology using 15 Israeli experts—landscape architects, regional planners, and geographers—revealed inherent differences in expert opinions in this field beyond professional divisions. The use of Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering allowed to identify clusters representing common decisions regarding criterion weights. Aggregating the evaluations of these clusters revealed an important dichotomy between a pragmatist approach that emphasizes the weight of statutory criteria and an ecological approach that emphasizes the role of the natural conditions in allocating green landscape corridors.

Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppenheimer, Michael; Little, Christopher M.; Cooke, Roger M.

2016-05-01

Expert judgement is an unavoidable element of the process-based numerical models used for climate change projections, and the statistical approaches used to characterize uncertainty across model ensembles. Here, we highlight the need for formalized approaches to unifying numerical modelling with expert judgement in order to facilitate characterization of uncertainty in a reproducible, consistent and transparent fashion. As an example, we use probabilistic inversion, a well-established technique used in many other applications outside of climate change, to fuse two recent analyses of twenty-first century Antarctic ice loss. Probabilistic inversion is but one of many possible approaches to formalizing the role of expert judgement, and the Antarctic ice sheet is only one possible climate-related application. We recommend indicators or signposts that characterize successful science-based uncertainty quantification.

Heat exchanger expert system logic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cormier, R.

1988-01-01

The reduction is described of the operation and fault diagnostics of a Deep Space Network heat exchanger to a rule base by the application of propositional calculus to a set of logic statements. The value of this approach lies in the ease of converting the logic and subsequently implementing it on a computer as an expert system. The rule base was written in Process Intelligent Control software.

A parallel strategy for implementing real-time expert systems using CLIPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ilyes, Laszlo A.; Villaseca, F. Eugenio; Delaat, John

1994-01-01

As evidenced by current literature, there appears to be a continued interest in the study of real-time expert systems. It is generally recognized that speed of execution is only one consideration when designing an effective real-time expert system. Some other features one must consider are the expert system's ability to perform temporal reasoning, handle interrupts, prioritize data, contend with data uncertainty, and perform context focusing as dictated by the incoming data to the expert system. This paper presents a strategy for implementing a real time expert system on the iPSC/860 hypercube parallel computer using CLIPS. The strategy takes into consideration not only the execution time of the software, but also those features which define a true real-time expert system. The methodology is then demonstrated using a practical implementation of an expert system which performs diagnostics on the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). This particular implementation uses an eight node hypercube to process ten sensor measurements in order to simultaneously diagnose five different failure modes within the SSME. The main program is written in ANSI C and embeds CLIPS to better facilitate and debug the rule based expert system.

Planning bioinformatics workflows using an expert system.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaoling; Chang, Jeffrey T

2017-04-15

Bioinformatic analyses are becoming formidably more complex due to the increasing number of steps required to process the data, as well as the proliferation of methods that can be used in each step. To alleviate this difficulty, pipelines are commonly employed. However, pipelines are typically implemented to automate a specific analysis, and thus are difficult to use for exploratory analyses requiring systematic changes to the software or parameters used. To automate the development of pipelines, we have investigated expert systems. We created the Bioinformatics ExperT SYstem (BETSY) that includes a knowledge base where the capabilities of bioinformatics software is explicitly and formally encoded. BETSY is a backwards-chaining rule-based expert system comprised of a data model that can capture the richness of biological data, and an inference engine that reasons on the knowledge base to produce workflows. Currently, the knowledge base is populated with rules to analyze microarray and next generation sequencing data. We evaluated BETSY and found that it could generate workflows that reproduce and go beyond previously published bioinformatics results. Finally, a meta-investigation of the workflows generated from the knowledge base produced a quantitative measure of the technical burden imposed by each step of bioinformatics analyses, revealing the large number of steps devoted to the pre-processing of data. In sum, an expert system approach can facilitate exploratory bioinformatic analysis by automating the development of workflows, a task that requires significant domain expertise. https://github.com/jefftc/changlab. jeffrey.t.chang@uth.tmc.edu. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

76 FR 62072 - Center for Devices and Radiological Health; Standard Operating Procedures for Network of Experts...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-06

...] Center for Devices and Radiological Health; Standard Operating Procedures for Network of Experts; Request... procedures (SOPs) for a new ``Network of Experts.'' The draft SOPs describe a new process for staff at the... FDA is announcing the availability of two draft SOPs, one entitled, ``Network of Experts--Expert...

The effects of time pressure on chess skill: an investigation into fast and slow processes underlying expert performance.

PubMed

van Harreveld, Frenk; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; van der Maas, Han L J

2007-09-01

The ability to play chess is generally assumed to depend on two types of processes: slow processes such as search, and fast processes such as pattern recognition. It has been argued that an increase in time pressure during a game selectively hinders the ability to engage in slow processes. Here we study the effect of time pressure on expert chess performance in order to test the hypothesis that compared to weak players, strong players depend relatively heavily on fast processes. In the first study we examine the performance of players of various strengths at an online chess server, for games played under different time controls. In a second study we examine the effect of time controls on performance in world championship matches. Both studies consistently show that skill differences between players become less predictive of the game outcome as the time controls are tightened. This result indicates that slow processes are at least as important for strong players as they are for weak players. Our findings pose a challenge for current theorizing in the field of expertise and chess.

Bridging the Expert and Citizen Divide: Integrating Public Deliberation to Inform NASA's Asteroid Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farooque, M.; Tomblin, D. C.; Sittenfeld, D.

2017-12-01

The demand for public engagement in upstream science and technology is fast becoming mainstream. From the National Academies to the European Commission, from geoengineering to gene editing, from artificial intelligence to synthetic biology—there is a growing recognition of the socio-technical nature of the inherent challenges and a variety of calls for earlier and sustained engagement with diverse stakeholders and the general public. Despite a significant increase in the number and sophistication of approaches, institutional and cultural barriers remain, particularly in linking techno-scientific discourse with socio-political discourse. We will report on a 2014 study to use Participatory Technology Assessment (pTA), a method for eliciting informed, deliberative, diverse, and representative citizen views prior to making decisions about science and technology, to inform upstream decisions concerning NASA's Asteroid Initiative. In partnership with NASA, the Expert and Citizen Assessment of Science and Technology (ECAST) network conducted pTA forums in Boston and Phoenix to assess citizens' preferences and values about potential options for asteroid detection, mitigation, and retrieval and the deployment of the Capability Driven Framework as a planning instrument for a journey to Mars. We describe the three-step trans-disciplinary research process applied for (a) issue framing and deliberation design, (b) content development and participant recruitment, and (c) value assessments and results integration. We present result highlights, describe how they were used, and what kind of impact they had on decisions made by NASA. We discuss the influence this project had on subsequent initiatives by NOAA for climate resilience planning and by DOE for nuclear waste management. We conclude with our thoughts on (i) a new institutional model and (ii) research, application and adaptation opportunities going forward focusing on the role pTA can play to bridge the divide between

Eliciting health care priorities in developing countries: experimental evidence from Guatemala.

PubMed

Font, Joan Costa; Forns, Joan Rovira; Sato, Azusa

2016-02-01

Although some methods for eliciting preferences to assist participatory priority setting in health care in developed countries are available, the same is not true for poor communities in developing countries whose preferences are neglected in health policy making. Existing methods grounded on self-interested, monetary valuations that may be inappropriate for developing country settings where community care is provided through 'social allocation' mechanisms. This paper proposes and examines an alternative methodology for eliciting preferences for health care programmes specifically catered for rural and less literate populations but which is still applicable in urban communities. Specifically, the method simulates a realistic collective budget allocation experiment, to be implemented in both rural and urban communities in Guatemala. We report evidence revealing that participatory budget-like experiments are incentive compatible mechanisms suitable for revealing collective preferences, while simultaneously having the advantage of involving communities in health care reform processes. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Confessions and expert testimony.

PubMed

Weiss, Kenneth J

2003-01-01

In this clinical paper, the author discusses criminal confessions from the point of view of the expert witness who may be asked to comment on the reliability of the statement and waiver of rights. From the time a suspect is in police custody, constitutional protections against self-incrimination and for due process are in place. The Supreme Court set the standard for these situations in the 1966 Miranda v. Arizona decision. Although it has long been criticized by law enforcement, the decision was upheld in the 2000 decision in Dickerson v. U.S. For a waiver of rights to be valid, it must be a knowing, intelligent, and voluntary decision. Voluntariness is an equation of objective and subjective variables. Treatment by police, physical conditions of interrogation, the suspect's experience and mental state can alter the reliability of a confession. Accordingly, the author has devised a mnemonic for the recognition of conditions that may give rise to expert testimony. The conditions are: Mental illness, Intoxication, Retardation, Acquiescence, Narcotic withdrawal, Deception, and Abuse. These are discussed, supported by examples from the author's practice.

Desiderata for product labeling of medical expert systems.

PubMed

Geissbühler, A; Miller, R A

1997-12-01

The proliferation and increasing complexity of medical expert systems raise ethical and legal concerns about the ability of practitioners to protect their patients from defective or misused software. Appropriate product labeling of expert systems can help clinical users to understand software indications and limitations. Mechanisms of action and knowledge representation schema should be explained in layperson's terminology. User qualifications and resources available for acquiring the skills necessary to understand and critique the system output should be listed. The processes used for building and maintaining the system's knowledge base are key determinants of the product's quality, and should be carefully documented. To meet these desiderata, a printed label is insufficient. The authors suggest a new, more active, model of product labeling for medical expert systems that involves embedding 'knowledge of the knowledge base', creating user-specific data, and sharing global information using the Internet.

Inhibition of irrelevant information is not necessary to performance of expert chess players.

PubMed

Postal, Virginie

2012-08-01

Some studies on expertise have demonstrated that the difference between novices and experts can be partly due to a lack of knowledge about which information is relevant for a given situation. This lack of knowledge seems to be associated with the selection of correct information and with inhibitory processes. However, while the efficiency of inhibitory processes can lead to better performance in the normal population, it seems that experts in chess do not base their performance on this process but rather on an automatic and parallel encoding of information. Two experiments investigated the processes involved in a check detection task. The congruence of the information was manipulated in a Stroop situation similar to Reingold, Charness, Scheltetus, & Stampe (2001). The results showed that the experts did not benefit from cuing with a congruent cue and that they did not show any interference effect by the incongruent cue, contrary to less skilled chess players who benefited from cuing (Exp. 1). An attentional priming procedure confirmed the automatic encoding of chess relations in the more skilled chess players by showing no advantage from the prime in this group (Exp. 2). Taken together, the results indicate that the processing was serial for the less skilled chess players and that it was automatic and parallel for the more expert chess players. The inhibition of irrelevant information does not seem necessary to process information rapidly and efficiently.

Extinction and renewal of cue-elicited reward-seeking.

PubMed

Bezzina, Louise; Lee, Jessica C; Lovibond, Peter F; Colagiuri, Ben

2016-12-01

Reward cues can contribute to overconsumption of food and drugs and can relapse. The failure of exposure therapies to reduce overconsumption and relapse is generally attributed to the context-specificity of extinction. However, no previous study has examined whether cue-elicited reward-seeking (as opposed to cue-reactivity) is sensitive to context renewal. We tested this possibility in 160 healthy volunteers using a Pavlovian-instrumental transfer (PIT) design involving voluntary responding for a high value natural reward (chocolate). One reward cue underwent Pavlovian extinction in the same (Group AAA) or different context (Group ABA) to all other phases. This cue was compared with a second non-extinguished reward cue and an unpaired control cue. There was a significant overall PIT effect with both reward cues eliciting reward-seeking on test relative to the unpaired cue. Pavlovian extinction substantially reduced this effect, with the extinguished reward cue eliciting less reward-seeking than the non-extinguished reward cue. Most interestingly, extinction of cue-elicited reward-seeking was sensitive to renewal, with extinction less effective for reducing PIT when conducted in a different context. These findings have important implications for extinction-based interventions for reducing maladaptive reward-seeking in practice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introducing Forum Theatre to Elicit and Advocate Children's Views

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hammond, Nick

2013-01-01

Eliciting and advocating the voice of the child remains at the heart of international political agenda and also remains a central role for educational psychologists (EPs). Previous research indicates that EPs tend to use language-based methods for eliciting and advocating views of children. However, these approaches are often limited. Taking a…

How much expert knowledge is it worth to put in conceptual hydrological models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antonetti, Manuel; Zappa, Massimiliano

2017-04-01

Both modellers and experimentalists agree on using expert knowledge to improve our conceptual hydrological simulations on ungauged basins. However, they use expert knowledge differently for both hydrologically mapping the landscape and parameterising a given hydrological model. Modellers use generally very simplified (e.g. topography-based) mapping approaches and put most of the knowledge for constraining the model by defining parameter and process relational rules. In contrast, experimentalists tend to invest all their detailed and qualitative knowledge about processes to obtain a spatial distribution of areas with different dominant runoff generation processes (DRPs) as realistic as possible, and for defining plausible narrow value ranges for each model parameter. Since, most of the times, the modelling goal is exclusively to simulate runoff at a specific site, even strongly simplified hydrological classifications can lead to satisfying results due to equifinality of hydrological models, overfitting problems and the numerous uncertainty sources affecting runoff simulations. Therefore, to test to which extent expert knowledge can improve simulation results under uncertainty, we applied a typical modellers' modelling framework relying on parameter and process constraints defined based on expert knowledge to several catchments on the Swiss Plateau. To map the spatial distribution of the DRPs, mapping approaches with increasing involvement of expert knowledge were used. Simulation results highlighted the potential added value of using all the expert knowledge available on a catchment. Also, combinations of event types and landscapes, where even a simplified mapping approach can lead to satisfying results, were identified. Finally, the uncertainty originated by the different mapping approaches was compared with the one linked to meteorological input data and catchment initial conditions.

Using quality experts from manufacturing to transform primary care.

PubMed

Steiner, Rose M; Walsworth, David T

2010-01-01

Improving Performance in Practice (IPIP) is an initiative convened by the American Board of Medical Specialties. It investigates the efficacy of coaches in helping primary-care practices improve the care of patients with diabetes and asthma. Most IPIP states use coaches who have a health care background, and are trained in quality and process improvement. Michigan uses quality experts from the manufacturing industry who are educated regarding the health care environment, which enables them to perform as quality-improvement coaches (QICs) in primary-care practices. In this case study, ninety-six quality experts were trained to coach primary-care practices, with 53 currently assigned to offices, and others assisting as needed. Practice teams and QICs identify gaps in care and office practices with the use of assorted quality-improvement tools. Reports are made monthly to describe clinical and process measures and methods used. Michigan has 33 practices engaged, involving 205 physicians and 40 midlevel providers. The teaming of quality experts from the manufacturing industry with primary-care office providers and staff resulted in office efficiency, improved care provided, and progress toward attainment of a patient-centered medical home (PCMH). Quality experts from manufacturing volunteered to coach for improvements in primary care. The efforts of QICs have been successful. Because the QICs are volunteers, sustainability of the Michigan Improving Performance in Practice program is a challenge.

Being an expert witness in geomorphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Edward A.

2015-02-01

Gathering your own data and coming to your own conclusion through scientific research and discovery is the most important principle to remember when being an expert witness in geomorphology. You can only be questioned in deposition and trial in your area of expertise. You are qualified as an expert by education, knowledge, and experience. You will have absolutely nothing to fear from cross-examination if you are prepared and confident about your work. Being an expert witness requires good communication skills. When you make a presentation, speak clearly and avoid jargon, especially when addressing a jury. Keep in mind that when you take on a case that may eventually go to court as a lawsuit, the entire process, with appeals and so forth, can take several years. Therefore, being an expert may become a long-term commitment of your time and energy. You may be hired by either side in a dispute, but your job is the same - determine the scientific basis of the case and explain your scientific reasoning to the lawyers, the judge, and the jury. Your work, including pre-trial investigations, often determines what the case will be based on. The use of science in the discovery part of an investigation is demonstrated from a California case involving the Ventura River, where building of a flood control levee restricted flow to a narrower channel, increasing unit stream power as well as potential for bank erosion and landsliding.

Design and implementation of a status at a glance user interface for a power distribution expert system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liberman, Eugene M.; Manner, David B.; Dolce, James L.; Mellor, Pamela A.

1993-01-01

Expert systems are widely used in health monitoring and fault detection applications. One of the key features of an expert system is that it possesses a large body of knowledge about the application for which it was designed. When the user consults this knowledge base, it is essential that the expert system's reasoning process and its conclusions be as concise as possible. If, in addition, an expert system is part of a process monitoring system, the expert system's conclusions must be combined with current events of the process. Under these circumstances, it is difficult for a user to absorb and respond to all the available information. For example, a user can become distracted and confused if two or more unrelated devices in different parts of the system require attention. A human interface designed to integrate expert system diagnoses with process data and to focus the user's attention to the important matters provides a solution to the 'information overload' problem. This paper will discuss a user interface to the power distribution expert system for Space Station Freedom. The importance of features which simplify assessing system status and which minimize navigating through layers of information will be discussed. Design rationale and implementation choices will also be presented.

Minocycline inhibits D-amphetamine-elicited action potential bursts in a central snail neuron.

PubMed

Chen, Y-H; Lin, P-L; Wong, R-W; Wu, Y-T; Hsu, H-Y; Tsai, M-C; Lin, M-J; Hsu, Y-C; Lin, C-H

2012-10-25

Minocycline is a second-generation tetracycline that has been reported to have powerful neuroprotective properties. In our previous studies, we found that d-amphetamine (AMPH) elicited action potential bursts in an identifiable RP4 neuron of the African snail, Achatina fulica Ferussac. This study sought to determine the effects of minocycline on the AMPH-elicited action potential pattern changes in the central snail neuron, using the two-electrode voltage clamping method. Extracellular application of AMPH at 300 μM elicited action potential bursts in the RP4 neuron. Minocycline dose-dependently (300-900 μM) inhibited the action potential bursts elicited by AMPH. The inhibitory effects of minocycline on AMPH-elicited action potential bursts were restored by forskolin (50 μM), an adenylate cyclase activator, and by dibutyryl cAMP (N(6),2'-O-Dibutyryladenosine 3',5'-cyclic monophosphate; 1mM), a membrane-permeable cAMP analog. Co-administration of forskolin (50 μM) plus tetraethylammonium chloride (TEA; 5mM) or co-administration of TEA (5mM) plus dibutyryl cAMP (1mM) also elicited action potential bursts, which were prevented and inhibited by minocycline. In addition, minocycline prevented and inhibited forskolin (100 μM)-elicited action potential bursts. Notably, TEA (50mM)-elicited action potential bursts in the RP4 neuron were not affected by minocycline. Minocycline did not affect steady-state outward currents of the RP4 neuron. However, minocycline did decrease the AMPH-elicited steady-state current changes. Similarly, minocycline decreased the effects of forskolin-elicited steady-state current changes. Pretreatment with H89 (N-[2-(p-Bromocinnamylamino)ethyl]-5-isoquinolinesulfonamide dihydrochloride; 10 μM), a protein kinase A inhibitor, inhibited AMPH-elicited action potential bursts and decreased AMPH-elicited steady-state current changes. These results suggest that the cAMP-protein kinase A signaling pathway and the steady-state current are involved in

Utilizing Expert Knowledge in Estimating Future STS Costs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fortner, David B.; Ruiz-Torres, Alex J.

2004-01-01

A method of estimating the costs of future space transportation systems (STSs) involves classical activity-based cost (ABC) modeling combined with systematic utilization of the knowledge and opinions of experts to extend the process-flow knowledge of existing systems to systems that involve new materials and/or new architectures. The expert knowledge is particularly helpful in filling gaps that arise in computational models of processes because of inconsistencies in historical cost data. Heretofore, the costs of planned STSs have been estimated following a "top-down" approach that tends to force the architectures of new systems to incorporate process flows like those of the space shuttles. In this ABC-based method, one makes assumptions about the processes, but otherwise follows a "bottoms up" approach that does not force the new system architecture to incorporate a space-shuttle-like process flow. Prototype software has been developed to implement this method. Through further development of software, it should be possible to extend the method beyond the space program to almost any setting in which there is a need to estimate the costs of a new system and to extend the applicable knowledge base in order to make the estimate.

Delegating Decisions to Experts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Hao; Suen, Wing

2004-01-01

We present a model of delegation with self-interested and privately informed experts. A team of experts with extreme but opposite biases is acceptable to a wide range of decision makers with diverse preferences, but the value of expertise from such a team is low. A decision maker wants to appoint experts who are less partisan than he is in order…

Computer-assisted expert case definition in electronic health records.

PubMed

Walker, Alexander M; Zhou, Xiaofeng; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N; Weiss, Lisa S; Shen, Rongjun; Sobel, Rachel E; Bate, Andrew; Reynolds, Robert F

2016-02-01

To describe how computer-assisted presentation of case data can lead experts to infer machine-implementable rules for case definition in electronic health records. As an illustration the technique has been applied to obtain a definition of acute liver dysfunction (ALD) in persons with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The technique consists of repeatedly sampling new batches of case candidates from an enriched pool of persons meeting presumed minimal inclusion criteria, classifying the candidates by a machine-implementable candidate rule and by a human expert, and then updating the rule so that it captures new distinctions introduced by the expert. Iteration continues until an update results in an acceptably small number of changes to form a final case definition. The technique was applied to structured data and terms derived by natural language processing from text records in 29,336 adults with IBD. Over three rounds the technique led to rules with increasing predictive value, as the experts identified exceptions, and increasing sensitivity, as the experts identified missing inclusion criteria. In the final rule inclusion and exclusion terms were often keyed to an ALD onset date. When compared against clinical review in an independent test round, the derived final case definition had a sensitivity of 92% and a positive predictive value of 79%. An iterative technique of machine-supported expert review can yield a case definition that accommodates available data, incorporates pre-existing medical knowledge, is transparent and is open to continuous improvement. The expert updates to rules may be informative in themselves. In this limited setting, the final case definition for ALD performed better than previous, published attempts using expert definitions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Potential of Elicited Imitation for Oral Output Practice in German L2

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cornillie, Frederik; Baten, Kristof; De Hertog, Dirk

2017-01-01

This paper reports on the potential of Oral Elicited Imitation (OEI) as a format for output practice, building on an analysis of picture-matching and spoken data collected from 36 university-level learners of German as a second language (L2) in a web-based assessment task inspired by Input Processing (VanPatten, 2004). The design and development…

Expert systems for space power supply - Design, analysis, and evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, Ralph S.; Thomson, M. Kemer; Hoshor, Alan

1987-01-01

The feasibility of applying expert systems to the conceptual design, analysis, and evaluation of space power supplies in particular, and complex systems in general is evaluated. To do this, the space power supply design process and its associated knowledge base were analyzed and characterized in a form suitable for computer emulation of a human expert. The existing expert system tools and the results achieved with them were evaluated to assess their applicability to power system design. Some new concepts for combining program architectures (modular expert systems and algorithms) with information about the domain were applied to create a 'deep' system for handling the complex design problem. NOVICE, a code to solve a simplified version of a scoping study of a wide variety of power supply types for a broad range of missions, has been developed, programmed, and tested as a concrete feasibility demonstration.

Photo-elicitation with adolescents in qualitative research: an example of its use in exploring family interactions in adolescent psychiatry.

PubMed

Sibeoni, J; Costa-Drolon, E; Poulmarc'h, L; Colin, S; Valentin, M; Pradère, J; Revah-Levy, A

2017-01-01

Photo-elicitation is a method used increasingly often in qualitative health research, and its positive effect on the research process is well established today. Photo-elicitation appears to facilitate verbalization and insight and to improve relationships between the researcher and participants, thereby enriching the quality of the data collected. Nonetheless, it is barely used at all in the field of adolescent psychiatry. With the aim of exploring the potential of these methods for research with adolescents receiving psychiatric care, we conducted a qualitative photo-elicitation data collection study with this population, asking them about family interactions around food. The data were collected from 15 adolescents and 17 parents during semi-structured interviews in which a photo taken by the adolescent served as the focus of discussion. Data were explored through inductive thematic analysis. Photo-elicitation played a threefold role in this study: (1) it induced the teens' interest, thought, and pleasure, (2) it played a mediating function during the interviews, and (3) it enabled family interactions to be viewed from the adolescent's perspective. Three themes concerning family interactions were found: (1) parent-child relationship patterns, (2) the functioning of the family group, and (3) the adolescent's individual relation with food, that is, the issue of the adolescent's autonomy. Photo-elicitation proved to be an innovative technique in qualitative research in the area of adolescent psychiatry, one that enriched the data and enabled the emergence of new themes in this field, related in particular to the process by which adolescents develop autonomy.

The Expert Project Management System (EPMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silverman, Barry G.; Diakite, Coty

1986-01-01

Successful project managers (PMs) have been shown to rely on 'intuition,' experience, and analogical reasoning heuristics. For new PMs to be trained and experienced PMs to avoid repeating others' mistakes, it is necessary to make the knowledge and heuristics of successful PMs more widely available. The preparers have evolved a model of PM thought processes over the last decade that is now ready to be implemented as a generic PM aid. This aid consists of a series of 'specialist' expert systems (CRITIC, LIBRARIAN, IDEA MAN, CRAFTSMAN, and WRITER) that communicate with each other via a 'blackboard' architecture. The various specialist expert systems are driven to support PM training and problem solving since any 'answers' they pass to the blackboard are subjected to conflict identification (AGENDA FORMULATOR) and GOAL SETTER inference engines.

StarPower: Elevating Prospective Student Interest through Expert and Celebrity Endorsements--Relevant Message, Relevant Media

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tucciarone, Kristy

2016-01-01

This study investigates how universities can increase the effectiveness of the search process by featuring in their advertisements expert and celebrity endorsers who attended the institution. How can universities gain the attention of prospective students using the star power of experts and celebrities? Experts and celebrities promoting a…

Research Dilemmas Associated with Photo Elicitation in Comparative Early Childhood Education Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Birkeland, Asta

2013-01-01

Photo elicitation has become an important method to produce data in qualitative research. There is quite an extensive literature indicating the benefits of photo elicitation in order to facilitate collaboration in meaning making between researcher and the interviewee. This article addresses dilemmas associated with using photo elicitation in a…

Children with autism respond differently to spontaneous, elicited and deferred imitation.

PubMed

Heimann, M; Nordqvist, E; Strid, K; Connant Almrot, J; Tjus, T

2016-05-01

Imitation, a key vehicle for both cognitive and social development, is often regarded as more difficult for children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) than for children with Down syndrome (DS) or typically developing (TD) children. The current study investigates similarities and differences in observed elicited, spontaneous and deferred imitation using both actions with objects and gestures as imitation tasks in these groups. Imitation among 19 children with autism was compared with 20 children with DS and 23 TD children matched for mental and language age. Elicited imitation resulted in significantly lower scores for the ASD group compared with the other two groups, an effect mainly carried by a low level of gesture imitation among ASD children. We observed no differences among the groups for spontaneous imitation. However, children with ASD or DS displayed less deferred imitation than the TD group. Proneness to imitate also differed among groups: only 10 (53%) of the children with autism responded in the elicited imitation condition compared with all children with DS and almost all TD children (87%). These findings add to our understanding of the kind of imitation difficulties children with ASD might have. They also point to the necessity of not equating various imitation measures because these may capture different processes and be differently motivating for children with autism. © 2016 MENCAP and International Association of the Scientific Study of Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fluorescein angiography-based diagnosis for retinopathy of prematurity: expert-non expert comparison.

PubMed

Guagliano, Rosanna; Barillà, Donatella; Bertone, Chiara; Maffia, Anna; Periti, Francesca; Spallone, Laura; Anselmetti, Giovanni; Giacosa, Elisabetta; Stronati, Mauro; Tinelli, Carmine; Bianchi, Paolo Emilio

2013-01-01

To evaluate accuracy and inter-rater reliability of RetCam fundus images and digital camera fluorangioscopic images in acute retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) by comparing diagnoses given by trainee ophthalmologists with those provided by expert ophthalmologists. 
 This is a multicenter retrospective observational study of diagnostic data from 48 eyes of 24 premature infants with classical ROP, stage II, as evaluated by RetCam 3 and fluorescein angiography (FA). Average gestational age was 25.4 weeks, average weight 804.7 g. A staging grid (with ocular fundus divided into 3 concentric zones) and 24 15° sectors centered around the optic papilla were superimposed on 360° retina photomontages (Photoshop) made from RetCam and FA images. Non expert vs expert diagnosis agreement was measured for each sector by means of Cohen kappa (Fleiss, 1981).
 A high degree of concordance was found. Inter-rater agreement between expert and non expert interpretations of retinal photomontages was greater for fluorangiographic images than for RetCam images, with κ = 0.61-1 for 120/152 (78.9%) sectors examined on the RetCam images and 
κ = 0.61-1 for 168/198 (84.8%) sectors examined on the FA images.
 The FA images appear to be easier to interpret than RetCam images, both by expert and non expert ophthalmologists. The results confirm that FA is a good examination technique with a high degree of reliability, even where trainee practitioners are involved. This suggests that retinopathy management can be improved by entrusting diagnostic responsibilities to trainee ophthalmologists, in order to extend access to correct diagnosis, recognition of threshold lesions, and prompt treatment.

Using expert knowledge to incorporate uncertainty in cause-of-death assignments for modeling of cause-specific mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walsh, Daniel P.; Norton, Andrew S.; Storm, Daniel J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.; Heisy, Dennis M.

2018-01-01

Implicit and explicit use of expert knowledge to inform ecological analyses is becoming increasingly common because it often represents the sole source of information in many circumstances. Thus, there is a need to develop statistical methods that explicitly incorporate expert knowledge, and can successfully leverage this information while properly accounting for associated uncertainty during analysis. Studies of cause-specific mortality provide an example of implicit use of expert knowledge when causes-of-death are uncertain and assigned based on the observer's knowledge of the most likely cause. To explicitly incorporate this use of expert knowledge and the associated uncertainty, we developed a statistical model for estimating cause-specific mortality using a data augmentation approach within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Specifically, for each mortality event, we elicited the observer's belief of cause-of-death by having them specify the probability that the death was due to each potential cause. These probabilities were then used as prior predictive values within our framework. This hierarchical framework permitted a simple and rigorous estimation method that was easily modified to include covariate effects and regularizing terms. Although applied to survival analysis, this method can be extended to any event-time analysis with multiple event types, for which there is uncertainty regarding the true outcome. We conducted simulations to determine how our framework compared to traditional approaches that use expert knowledge implicitly and assume that cause-of-death is specified accurately. Simulation results supported the inclusion of observer uncertainty in cause-of-death assignment in modeling of cause-specific mortality to improve model performance and inference. Finally, we applied the statistical model we developed and a traditional method to cause-specific survival data for white-tailed deer, and compared results. We demonstrate that model selection

Knowledge acquisition from natural language for expert systems based on classification problem-solving methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gomez, Fernando

1989-01-01

It is shown how certain kinds of domain independent expert systems based on classification problem-solving methods can be constructed directly from natural language descriptions by a human expert. The expert knowledge is not translated into production rules. Rather, it is mapped into conceptual structures which are integrated into long-term memory (LTM). The resulting system is one in which problem-solving, retrieval and memory organization are integrated processes. In other words, the same algorithm and knowledge representation structures are shared by these processes. As a result of this, the system can answer questions, solve problems or reorganize LTM.

Web-based expert system for foundry pollution prevention

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moynihan, Gary P.

2004-02-01

Pollution prevention is a complex task. Many small foundries lack the in-house expertise to perform these tasks. Expert systems are a type of computer information system that incorporates artificial intelligence. As noted in the literature, they provide a means of automating specialized expertise. This approach may be further leveraged by implementing the expert system on the internet (or world-wide web). This will allow distribution of the expertise to a variety of geographically-dispersed foundries. The purpose of this research is to develop a prototype web-based expert system to support pollution prevention for the foundry industry. The prototype system identifies potential emissions for a specified process, and also provides recommendations for the prevention of these contaminants. The system is viewed as an initial step toward assisting the foundry industry in better meeting government pollution regulations, as well as improving operating efficiencies within these companies.

Critical Thinking Theory to Practice: Using the Expert's Thought Process as Guide for Learning and Assessment.

PubMed

Marshall, Teresa A; Marchini, Leonardo; Cowen, Howard; Hartshorn, Jennifer E; Holloway, Julie A; Straub-Morarend, Cheryl L; Gratton, David; Solow, Catherine M; Colangelo, Nicholas; Johnsen, David C

2017-08-01

Critical thinking skills are essential for the successful dentist, yet few explicit skillsets in critical thinking have been developed and published in peer-reviewed literature. The aims of this article are to 1) offer an assessable critical thinking teaching model with the expert's thought process as the outcome, learning guide, and assessment instrument and 2) offer three critical thinking skillsets following this model: for geriatric risk assessment, technology decision making, and situation analysis/reflections. For the objective component, the student demonstrates delivery of each step in the thought process. For the subjective component, the student is judged to have grasped the principles as applied to the patient or case. This article describes the framework and the results of pilot tests in which students in one year at this school used the model in the three areas, earning scores of 90% or above on the assessments. The model was thus judged to be successful for students to demonstrate critical thinking skillsets in the course settings. Students consistently delivered each step of the thought process and were nearly as consistent in grasping the principles behind each step. As more critical thinking skillsets are implemented, a reinforcing network develops.

Data reduction expert assistant

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Glenn E.; Johnston, Mark D.; Hanisch, Robert J.

1991-01-01

Viewgraphs on data reduction expert assistant are presented. Topics covered include: data analysis systems; philosophy of these systems; disadvantages; expert assistant; useful goals; and implementation considerations.

Adding an Expert to the Team: The Expert Flight Plan Critic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibbons, Andrew; Waki, Randy; Fairweather, Peter

2008-01-01

This paper reports the development of a practical tool that provides expert feedback to students following an extended simulation exercise in cross-country flight planning. In contrast to development for laboratory settings, the development of an expert instructional product for everyday use posed some interesting challenges, including dealing…

Cognitive Task Analysis for Instruction in Single-Injection Ultrasound Guided-Regional Anesthesia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gucev, Gligor V.

2012-01-01

Cognitive task analysis (CTA) is methodology for eliciting knowledge from subject matter experts. CTA has been used to capture the cognitive processes, decision-making, and judgments that underlie expert behaviors. A review of the literature revealed that CTA has not yet been used to capture the knowledge required to perform ultrasound guided…

A Tool for Automatic Verification of Real-Time Expert Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Traylor, B.; Schwuttke, U.; Quan, A.

1994-01-01

The creation of an automated, user-driven tool for expert system development, validation, and verification is curretly onoging at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. In the new age of faster, better, cheaper missions, there is an increased willingness to utilize embedded expert systems for encapsulating and preserving mission expertise in systems which combine conventional algorithmic processing and artifical intelligence. The once-questioned role of automation in spacecraft monitoring is now becoming one of increasing importance.

Issues in Requirements Elicitation

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-01

oriented domain analysis ( FODA ) continues that the re- quirements analyst uses the products of domain analysis when implementing a new system [Kang 90, p...Peterson, A. Spencer. Feature-Oriented Domain Analysis ( FODA ) Feasibility Study. Technical Report CMU/SEI-90-TR-21, ADA235785, Software Engineering...3.3 Problems of Volatility 12 4 Current Elicitation Techniques 15 4.1 Information Gathering 16 4.2 Requirements Expression and Analysis 19 4.3

[Psychoanalysis and Psychiatrie-Enquete: expert interviews and document analysis].

PubMed

Söhner, Felicitas Petra; Fangerau, Heiner; Becker, Thomas

2017-12-01

Background The purpose of this paper is to analyse the perception of the role of psychoanalysis and psychoanalysts in the coming about of the Psychiatrie-Enquete in the Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany). Methods We performed a qualitative content analysis of expert interviews with persons involved in the Enquete (or witnessing the events as mental health professionals active at the time), a selective literature review and an analysis of documents on the Enquete process. Results Expert interviews, relevant literature and documents point to a role of psychoanalysis in the Enquete process. Psychoanalysts were considered to have been effective in the run-up to the Enquete and the work of the commission. Conclusion Psychoanalysis and a small number of psychoanalysts were perceived as being relevant in the overall process of the Psychiatrie-Enquete in West Germany. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

A new method for eliciting three speaking styles in the laboratory

PubMed Central

Harnsberger, James D.; Wright, Richard; Pisoni, David B.

2009-01-01

In this study, a method was developed to elicit three different speaking styles, reduced, citation, and hyperarticulated, using controlled sentence materials in a laboratory setting. In the first set of experiments, the reduced style was elicited by having twelve talkers read a sentence while carrying out a distractor task that involved recalling from short-term memory an individually-calibrated number of digits. The citation style corresponded to read speech in the laboratory. The hyperarticulated style was elicited by prompting talkers (twice) to reread the sentences more carefully. The results of perceptual tests with naïve listeners and an acoustic analysis showed that six of the twelve talkers produced a reduced style of speech for the test sentences in the distractor task relative to the same sentences in the citation style condition. In addition, all talkers consistently produced sentences in the citation and hyperarticulated styles. In the second set of experiments, the reduced style was elicited by increasing the number of digits in the distractor task by one (a heavier cognitive load). The procedures for eliciting citation and hyperarticulated sentences remained unchanged. Ten talkers were recorded in the second experiment. The results showed that six out of ten talkers differentiated all three styles as predicted (70% of all sentences recorded). In addition, all talkers consistently produced sentences in the citation and hyperarticulated styles. Overall, the results demonstrate that it is possible to elicit controlled sentence stimulus materials varying in speaking style in a laboratory setting, although the method requires further refinement to elicit these styles more consistently from individual participants. PMID:19562041

A new method for eliciting three speaking styles in the laboratory.

PubMed

Harnsberger, James D; Wright, Richard; Pisoni, David B

2008-04-01

In this study, a method was developed to elicit three different speaking styles, reduced, citation, and hyperarticulated, using controlled sentence materials in a laboratory setting. In the first set of experiments, the reduced style was elicited by having twelve talkers read a sentence while carrying out a distractor task that involved recalling from short-term memory an individually-calibrated number of digits. The citation style corresponded to read speech in the laboratory. The hyperarticulated style was elicited by prompting talkers (twice) to reread the sentences more carefully. The results of perceptual tests with naïve listeners and an acoustic analysis showed that six of the twelve talkers produced a reduced style of speech for the test sentences in the distractor task relative to the same sentences in the citation style condition. In addition, all talkers consistently produced sentences in the citation and hyperarticulated styles. In the second set of experiments, the reduced style was elicited by increasing the number of digits in the distractor task by one (a heavier cognitive load). The procedures for eliciting citation and hyperarticulated sentences remained unchanged. Ten talkers were recorded in the second experiment. The results showed that six out of ten talkers differentiated all three styles as predicted (70% of all sentences recorded). In addition, all talkers consistently produced sentences in the citation and hyperarticulated styles. Overall, the results demonstrate that it is possible to elicit controlled sentence stimulus materials varying in speaking style in a laboratory setting, although the method requires further refinement to elicit these styles more consistently from individual participants.

Thinking like an expert: surgical decision making as a cyclical process of being aware.

PubMed

Cristancho, Sayra M; Apramian, Tavis; Vanstone, Meredith; Lingard, Lorelei; Ott, Michael; Forbes, Thomas; Novick, Richard

2016-01-01

Education researchers are studying the practices of high-stake professionals as they learn how to better train for flexibility under uncertainty. This study explores the "Reconciliation Cycle" as the core element of an intraoperative decision-making model of how experienced surgeons assess and respond to challenges. We analyzed 32 semistructured interviews using constructivist grounded theory to develop a model of intraoperative decision making. Using constant comparison analysis, we built on this model with 9 follow-up interviews about the most challenging cases described in our dataset. The Reconciliation Cycle constituted an iterative process of "gaining" and "transforming information." The cyclical nature of surgeons' decision making suggested that transforming information requires a higher degree of awareness, not yet accounted by current conceptualizations of situation awareness. This study advances the notion of situation awareness in surgery. This characterization will support further investigations on how expert and nonexpert surgeons implement strategies to cope with unexpected events. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fuzzy Expert System for Heart Attack Diagnosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Norlida; Arbaiy, Nureize; Shah, Noor Aziyan Ahmad; Afizah Afif@Afip, Zehan

2017-08-01

Heart attack is one of the serious illnesses and reported as the main killer disease. Early prevention is significant to reduce the risk of having the disease. The prevention efforts can be strengthen through awareness and education about risk factor and healthy lifestyle. Therefore the knowledge dissemination is needed to play role in order to distribute and educate public in health care management and disease prevention. Since the knowledge dissemination in medical is important, there is a need to develop a knowledge based system that can emulate human intelligence to assist decision making process. Thereby, this study utilized hybrid artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to develop a Fuzzy Expert System for Diagnosing Heart Attack Disease (HAD). This system integrates fuzzy logic with expert system, which helps the medical practitioner and people to predict the risk and as well as diagnosing heart attack based on given symptom. The development of HAD is expected not only providing expert knowledge but potentially become one of learning resources to help citizens to develop awareness about heart-healthy lifestyle.

Equating an expert system to a classifier in order to evaluate the expert system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Odell, Patrick L.

1989-01-01

A strategy to evaluate an expert system is formulated. The strategy proposed is based on finding an equivalent classifier to an expert system and evaluate that classifier with respect to an optimal classifier, a Bayes classifier. Here it is shown that for the rules considered an equivalent classifier exists. Also, a brief consideration of meta and meta-meta rules is included. Also, a taxonomy of expert systems is presented and an assertion made that an equivalent classifier exists for each type of expert system in the taxonomy with associated sets of underlying assumptions.

Eliciting consumer preferences for health plans.

PubMed

Booske, B C; Sainfort, F; Hundt, A S

1999-10-01

To examine (1) what people say is important to them in choosing a health plan; (2) the effect, if any, that giving health plan information has on what people say is important to them; and (3) the effect of preference elicitation methods on what people say is important. A random sample of 201 Wisconsin state employees who participated in a health plan choice experiment during the 1995 open enrollment period. We designed a computer system to guide subjects through the review of information about health plan options. The system began by eliciting the stated preferences of the subjects before they viewed the information, at time 0. Subjects were given an opportunity to revise their preference structures first after viewing summary information about four health plans (time 1) and then after viewing more extensive, detailed information about the same options (time 2). At time 2, these individuals were also asked to rate the relative importance of a predefined list of health plan features presented to them. Data were collected on the number of attributes listed at each point in time and the importance weightings assigned to each attribute. In addition, each item on the attribute list was content analyzed. The provision of information changes the preference structures of individuals. Costs (price) and coverage dominated the attributes cited both before and after looking at health plan information. When presented with information on costs, quality, and how plans work, many of these relatively well educated consumers revised their preference structures; yet coverage and costs remained the primary cited attributes. Although efforts to provide health plan information should continue, decisions on the information to provide and on making it available are not enough. Individuals need help in understanding, processing, and using the information to construct their preferences and make better decisions.

Differential Neural Activity during Search of Specific and General Autobiographical Memories Elicited by Musical Cues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ford, Jaclyn Hennessey; Addis, Donna Rose; Giovanello, Kelly S.

2011-01-01

Previous neuroimaging studies that have examined autobiographical memory specificity have utilized retrieval cues associated with prior searches of the event, potentially changing the retrieval processes being investigated. In the current study, musical cues were used to naturally elicit memories from multiple levels of specificity (i.e., lifetime…

Physiological responses induced by emotion-eliciting films.

PubMed

Fernández, Cristina; Pascual, Juan C; Soler, Joaquim; Elices, Matilde; Portella, Maria J; Fernández-Abascal, Enrique

2012-06-01

Emotion-eliciting films are commonly used to evoke subjective emotional responses in experimental settings. The main aim of the present study was to investigate whether a set of film clips with discrete emotions were capable to elicit measurable objective physiological responses. The convergence between subjective and objective measures was evaluated. Finally, the effect of gender on emotional responses was investigated. A sample of 123 subjects participated in the study. Individuals were asked to view a set of emotional film clips capable to induce seven emotions: anger, fear, sadness, disgust, amusement, tenderness and neutral state. Skin conductance level (SCL), heart rate (HR) and subjective emotional responses were measured for each film clip. In comparison with neutral films, SCL was significantly increased after viewing fear films, and HR was also significantly incremented for anger and fear films. Physiological variations were associated with arousal measures indicating a convergence between subjective and objective reactions. Women appeared to display significantly greater SCL and HR responses for films inducing sadness. The findings suggest that physiological activation would be more easily induced by emotion-eliciting films that tap into emotions with higher subjective arousal such as anger and fear.

Fuzzy rationality and parameter elicitation in decision analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikolova, Natalia D.; Tenekedjiev, Kiril I.

2010-07-01

It is widely recognised by decision analysts that real decision-makers always make estimates in an interval form. An overview of techniques to find an optimal alternative among such with imprecise and interval probabilities is presented. Scalarisation methods are outlined as most appropriate. A proper continuation of such techniques is fuzzy rational (FR) decision analysis. A detailed representation of the elicitation process influenced by fuzzy rationality is given. The interval character of probabilities leads to the introduction of ribbon functions, whose general form and special cases are compared with the p-boxes. As demonstrated, approximation of utilities in FR decision analysis does not depend on the probabilities, but the approximation of probabilities is dependent on preferences.

Comparing Analytic Hierarchy Process and Discrete-Choice Experiment to Elicit Patient Preferences for Treatment Characteristics in Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

PubMed

Danner, Marion; Vennedey, Vera; Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Fauser, Sascha; Gross, Christian; Stock, Stephanie

2017-09-01

In this study, we conducted an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to elicit the preferences of patients with age-related macular degeneration using identical attributes and levels. To compare preference-based weights for age-related macular degeneration treatment attributes and levels generated by two elicitation methods. The properties of both methods were assessed, including ease of instrument use. A DCE and an AHP experiment were designed on the basis of five attributes. Preference-based weights were generated using the matrix multiplication method for attributes and levels in AHP and a mixed multinomial logit model for levels in the DCE. Attribute importance was further compared using coefficient (DCE) and weight (AHP) level ranges. The questionnaire difficulty was rated on a qualitative scale. Patients were asked to think aloud while providing their judgments. AHP and DCE generated similar results regarding levels, stressing a preference for visual improvement, frequent monitoring, on-demand and less frequent injection schemes, approved drugs, and mild side effects. Attribute weights derived on the basis of level ranges led to a ranking that was opposite to the AHP directly calculated attribute weights. For example, visual function ranked first in the AHP and last on the basis of level ranges. The results across the methods were similar, with one exception: the directly measured AHP attribute weights were different from the level-based interpretation of attribute importance in both DCE and AHP. The dependence/independence of attribute importance on level ranges in DCE and AHP, respectively, should be taken into account when choosing a method to support decision making. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do community and autonomy moral violations elicit different emotions?

PubMed

Kollareth, Dolichan; Kikutani, Mariko; Shirai, Mariko; Russell, James A

2018-06-11

According to one important set of theories, different domains of immorality are linked to different discrete emotions-panculturally. Violations against the community elicit contempt, whereas violations against an individual elicit anger. To test this theory, American, Indian and Japanese participants (N = 480) indicated contempt and anger reactions (with verbal rating and face selection) to both the types of immorality. To remedy method problems in previous research, community and autonomy violations were created for the same story-frame, by varying the target to be either the community or an individual. Community and autonomy violations did not differ significantly in the emotion elicited: overall, both types of violations elicited more anger than contempt (and more negative emotion of any kind than positive emotion). By verbal rating, Americans and Indians reported more anger than contempt for both types of violation, whereas Japanese reported more contempt than anger for both types. By face selection, the three cultural groups selected anger more than contempt for both types of violation. The results speak against defining distinct domains of morality by their association with distinct emotions. © 2018 International Union of Psychological Science.

Eight habitats, 38 threats and 55 experts: Assessing ecological risk in a multi-use marine region

PubMed Central

Jones, Alice R.; Deveney, Marty R.; Ward, Tim M.; Gillanders, Bronwyn M.

2017-01-01

Identifying the relative risk human activities pose to a habitat, and the ecosystem services they provide, can guide management prioritisation and resource allocation. Using a combination of expert elicitation to assess the probable effect of a threat and existing data to assess the level of threat exposure, we conducted a risk assessment for 38 human-mediated threats to eight marine habitats (totalling 304 threat-habitat combinations) in Spencer Gulf, Australia. We developed a score-based survey to collate expert opinion and assess the relative effect of each threat to each habitat, as well as a novel and independent measure of knowledge-based uncertainty. Fifty-five experts representing multiple sectors and institutions participated in the study, with 6 to 15 survey responses per habitat (n = 81 surveys). We identified key threats specific to each habitat; overall, climate change threats received the highest risk rankings, with nutrient discharge identified as a key local-scale stressor. Invasive species and most fishing-related threats, which are commonly identified as major threats to the marine environment, were ranked as low-tier threats to Spencer Gulf, emphasising the importance of regionally-relevant assessments. Further, we identified critical knowledge gaps and quantified uncertainty scores for each risk. Our approach will facilitate prioritisation of resource allocation in a region of increasing social, economic and environmental importance, and can be applied to marine regions where empirical data are lacking. PMID:28489912

Paediatric expert witness.

PubMed

Johnson, Sandra L J

2013-08-01

Paediatricians may be asked to provide expert opinion in paediatric cases that come under legal consideration. This article provides suggestions to assist paediatricians in this role and emphasises their duty to the court when giving expert opinion. © 2013 The Author. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2013 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Film clips and narrative text as subjective emotion elicitation techniques.

PubMed

Zupan, Barbra; Babbage, Duncan R

2017-01-01

Film clips and narrative text are useful techniques in eliciting emotion in a laboratory setting but have not been examined side-by-side using the same methodology. This study examined the self-identification of emotions elicited by film clip and narrative text stimuli to confirm that selected stimuli appropriately target the intended emotions. Seventy participants viewed 30 film clips, and 40 additional participants read 30 narrative texts. Participants identified the emotion experienced (happy, sad, angry, fearful, neutral-six stimuli each). Eighty-five percent of participants self-identified the target emotion for at least two stimuli for all emotion categories of film clips, except angry (only one) and for all categories of narrative text, except fearful (only one). The most effective angry text was correctly identified 74% of the time. Film clips were more effective in eliciting all target emotions in participants for eliciting the correct emotion (angry), intensity rating (happy, sad), or both (fearful).

Expert consensus on best evaluative practices in community-based rehabilitation.

PubMed

Grandisson, Marie; Thibeault, Rachel; Hébert, Michèle; Cameron, Debra

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to generate expert consensus on best evaluative practices for community-based rehabilitation (CBR). This consensus includes key features of the evaluation process and methods, and discussion of whether a shared framework should be used to report findings and, if so, which framework should play this role. A Delphi study with two predefined rounds was conducted. Experts in CBR from a wide range of geographical areas and disciplinary backgrounds were recruited to complete the questionnaires. Both quantitative and qualitative analyses were performed to generate the recommendations for best practices in CBR evaluation. A panel of 42 experts reached consensus on 13 recommendations for best evaluative practices in CBR. In regard to the critical qualities of sound CBR evaluation processes, panellists emphasized that these processes should be inclusive, participatory, empowering and respectful of local cultures and languages. The group agreed that evaluators should consider the use of mixed methods and participatory tools, and should combine indicators from a universal list of CBR indicators with locally generated ones. The group also agreed that a common framework should guide CBR evaluations, and that this framework should be a flexible combination between the CBR Matrix and the CBR Principles. An expert panel reached consensus on key features of best evaluative practices in CBR. Knowledge transfer initiatives are now required to develop guidelines, tools and training opportunities to facilitate CBR program evaluations. CBR evaluation processes should strive to be inclusive, participatory, empowering and respectful of local cultures and languages. CBR evaluators should strongly consider using mixed methods, participatory tools, a combination of indicators generated with the local community and with others from a bank of CBR indicators. CBR evaluations should be situated within a shared, but flexible, framework. This shared framework could

Expert and Knowledge Based Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Demaid, Adrian; Edwards, Lyndon

1987-01-01

Discusses the nature and current state of knowledge-based systems and expert systems. Describes an expert system from the viewpoints of a computer programmer and an applications expert. Addresses concerns related to materials selection and forecasts future developments in the teaching of materials engineering. (ML)

Expert Maintenance Advisor Development for Navy Shipboard Systems