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Sample records for expert elicitation process

  1. Promoting environmental sustainability via an expert elicitation process

    SciTech Connect

    Swor, Tom; Canter, Larry

    2011-09-15

    Environmental sustainability (ES) planning was applied to the 981-mile, commercially navigable Ohio River. Navigation improvement needs were identified within the broad study along with actions to restore aquatic and riparian ecological resources to a higher state of sustainability. The actions were identified via an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) involving aquatic and riparian/terrestrial experts knowledgeable of Ohio River resources. The received information was synthesized into goals for the selected resources (Valued Ecosystem Components - or VECs), actions or measures to attain the goals, and monitoring to evaluate conditions. Finally, 26 types of ES actions were identified and classified into three ES alternatives. These alternatives were then evaluated relative to key decision criteria, and such evaluations, based on pertinent decision criteria, were also conducted for four navigation improvement alternatives. Finally, the best combination of ES and navigation alternatives was identified. The key lessons derived from this use of EEP were that: (1) EEP can support the preliminary identification of ES measures; however, more detailed study of specific designs and cost evaluations will be necessary; (2) the method promotes collaboration between key scientists and policymakers from governmental agencies and private sectors, and such collaboration will ultimately provide the foundation for implementation of sustainability actions; and (3) an effective EEP does not occur by accident, it requires careful planning, implementation, and documentation. - Research Highlights: > Use of an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) is demonstrated in this study. > EEP was used to identify Environmental Sustainability (ES) needs for the Ohio River. > EEP helped develop consensus among resource experts on ES needs. > EEP promotes collaboration to identify and contribute to common resource goals. > EEP may be used in assessing cumulative effects and formulating restoration plans.

  2. 75 FR 76467 - Draft Concept for Government-Wide “ExpertNet” Platform and Process To Elicit Expert Public...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-08

    ... ADMINISTRATION Draft Concept for Government-Wide ``ExpertNet'' Platform and Process To Elicit Expert Public... (working title ``ExpertNet''). ExpertNet would tap the expertise of the public in a manageable and structured format. The goal of ExpertNet is to enable government officials to search for and communicate...

  3. Elicitation of quantitative data from a heterogeneous expert panel: formal process and application in animal health.

    PubMed

    Van der Fels-Klerx, Ine H J; Goossens, Louis H J; Saatkamp, Helmut W; Horst, Suzan H S

    2002-02-01

    This paper presents a protocol for a formal expert judgment process using a heterogeneous expert panel aimed at the quantification of continuous variables. The emphasis is on the process's requirements related to the nature of expertise within the panel, in particular the heterogeneity of both substantive and normative expertise. The process provides the opportunity for interaction among the experts so that they fully understand and agree upon the problem at hand, including qualitative aspects relevant to the variables of interest, prior to the actual quantification task. Individual experts' assessments on the variables of interest, cast in the form of subjective probability density functions, are elicited with a minimal demand for normative expertise. The individual experts' assessments are aggregated into a single probability density function per variable, thereby weighting the experts according to their expertise. Elicitation techniques proposed include the Delphi technique for the qualitative assessment task and the ELI method for the actual quantitative assessment task. Appropriately, the Classical model was used to weight the experts' assessments in order to construct a single distribution per variable. Applying this model, the experts' quality typically was based on their performance on seed variables. An application of the proposed protocol in the broad and multidisciplinary field of animal health is presented. Results of this expert judgment process showed that the proposed protocol in combination with the proposed elicitation and analysis techniques resulted in valid data on the (continuous) variables of interest. In conclusion, the proposed protocol for a formal expert judgment process aimed at the elicitation of quantitative data from a heterogeneous expert panel provided satisfactory results. Hence, this protocol might be useful for expert judgment studies in other broad and/or multidisciplinary fields of interest.

  4. Simplified Expert Elicitation Procedure for Risk Assessment of Operating Events

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; David Gertman; Jeffrey Joe; Julie Marble; William Galyean; Larry Blackwood; Harold Blackman

    2005-06-01

    This report describes a simplified, tractable, and usable procedure within the US Nuclear Regulator Commission (NRC) for seeking expert opinion and judgment. The NRC has increased efforts to document the reliability and risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs) through Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) models. The Significance Determination Process (SDP) and Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) programs at the NRC utilize expert judgment on the probability of failure, human error, and the operability of equipment in cases where otherwise insufficient operational data exist to make meaningful estimates. In the past, the SDP and ASP programs informally sought the opinion of experts inside and outside the NRC. This document represents a formal, documented procedure to take the place of informal expert elicitation. The procedures outlined in this report follow existing formal expert elicitation methodologies, but are streamlined as appropriate to the degree of accuracy required and the schedule for producing SDP and ASP analyses.

  5. Expert elicitation of population-level effects of disturbance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fleishman, Erica; Burgman, Mark; Runge, Michael C.; Schick, Robert S; Krauss, Scott; Popper, Arthur N.; Hawkins, Anthony

    2016-01-01

    Expert elicitation is a rigorous method for synthesizing expert knowledge to inform decision making and is reliable and practical when field data are limited. We evaluated the feasibility of applying expert elicitation to estimate population-level effects of disturbance on marine mammals. Diverse experts estimated parameters related to mortality and sublethal injury of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis). We are now eliciting expert knowledge on the movement of right whales among geographic regions to parameterize a spatial model of health. Expert elicitation complements methods such as simulation models or extrapolations from other species, sometimes with greater accuracy and less uncertainty.

  6. Expert Elicitation of Population-Level Effects of Disturbance.

    PubMed

    Fleishman, Erica; Burgman, Mark; Runge, Michael C; Schick, Robert S; Kraus, Scott

    2016-01-01

    Expert elicitation is a rigorous method for synthesizing expert knowledge to inform decision making and is reliable and practical when field data are limited. We evaluated the feasibility of applying expert elicitation to estimate population-level effects of disturbance on marine mammals. Diverse experts estimated parameters related to mortality and sublethal injury of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis). We are now eliciting expert knowledge on the movement of right whales among geographic regions to parameterize a spatial model of health. Expert elicitation complements methods such as simulation models or extrapolations from other species, sometimes with greater accuracy and less uncertainty. PMID:26610972

  7. Web-based tool for expert elicitation of the variogram

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Truong, Phuong N.; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Gosling, John Paul

    2013-02-01

    The variogram is the keystone of geostatistics. Estimation of the variogram is deficient and difficult when there are no or too few observations available due to budget constraints or physical and temporal obstacles. In such cases, expert knowledge can be an important source of information. Expert knowledge can also fulfil the increasing demand for an a priori variogram in Bayesian geostatistics and spatial sampling optimization. Formal expert elicitation provides a sound scientific basis to reliably and consistently extract knowledge from experts. In this study, we aimed at applying existing statistical expert elicitation techniques to extract the variogram of a regionalized variable that is assumed to have either a multivariate normal or lognormal spatial probability distribution from expert knowledge. To achieve this, we developed an elicitation protocol and implemented it as a web-based tool to facilitate the elicitation of beliefs from multiple experts. Our protocol has two main rounds: elicitation of the marginal probability distribution and elicitation of the variogram. The web-based tool has three main components: a web interface for expert elicitation and feedback; a component for statistical computation and mathematical pooling of multiple experts' knowledge; and a database management component. Results from a test case study show that the protocol is adequate and that the online elicitation tool functions satisfactorily. The web-based tool is free to use and supports scientists to conveniently elicit the variogram of spatial random variables from experts. The source code is available from the journal FTP site under the GNU General Public License.

  8. An Expert Elicitation Process in Support of Groundwater Model Evaluation for Frenchman Flat, Nevada National Security Site

    SciTech Connect

    Chapman Jenny,Pohlmann Karl

    2011-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is implementing corrective actions at facilities where nuclear-related operations were conducted in Nevada. Among the most significant sites being addressed are the locations of underground nuclear tests on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The process for implementing corrective actions for the Underground Test Area (UGTA) locations is defined in Appendix VI of a Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (1996, as amended). In broad terms, Appendix VI describes a Corrective Action Investigation followed by a Corrective Action Decision, and implementation of a Corrective Action Plan prior to closure. The Frenchman Flat Corrective Action Unit (CAU) is farthest along in the UGTA corrective action process. It includes ten underground tests within the Frenchman Flat topographic basin, in the southeastern portion of the NNSS. Data have been collected from drilling exploration, hydrologic testing, and field and laboratory studies. Modeling has been completed at a variety of scales and focusing on a variety of flow and transport aspects ranging from regional boundary conditions to process dynamics within a single nuclear cavity. The culmination of the investigations is a transport model for the Frenchman Flat CAU (Stoller Navarro Joint Venture, 2009) that has undergone rigorous peer review and been accepted by the State of Nevada, setting the stage for the Corrective Action Decision and progression from the investigation phase to the corrective action phase of the project.

  9. Implementation of the PR&PP methodology: the role of formal expert elicitations

    SciTech Connect

    Pilat, Joseph F

    2010-01-01

    The application of the methodology developed by the GenIV International Forum's (GIF's) Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) Working Group is an expert elicitation. Although the framework of the methodology is structured and systematic, it does not by itself constitute or require a formal elicitation. However, formal elicitation can be utilized in the PR&PP context to provide a systematic, credible and transparent qualitative analysis and develop input for quantitative analyses. This section provides an overview of expert elicitations, a discussion of the role formal expert elicitations can play in the PR&PP methodology, an outline of the formal expert elicitation process and a brief practical guide to conducting formal expert elicitations. Expert elicitation is a process utilizing knowledgeable people in cases, for example, when an assessment is needed but physically based data is absent or open to interpretation. More specifically, it can be used to: (1) predict future events; (2) provide estimates on new, rare, complex or poorly understood phenomena; (3) integrate or interpret existing information; or (4) determine what is currently known, how well it is known or what is worth learning in a field. Expert elicitation can be informal or formal. The informal application of expert judgment is frequently used. Although it can produce good results, it often provides demonstrably biased or otherwise flawed answers to problems. This along with the absence of transparency can result in a loss of confidence when experts speak on issues. More formal expert elicitation is a structured process that makes use of people knowledgeable in certain areas to make assessments. The reason for advocating formal use is that the quality and accuracy of expert judgment comes from the completeness of the expert's understanding of the phenomena and the process used to elicit and analyze the data. The use of a more formal process to obtain, lU1derstand and analyze expert

  10. Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease.

    PubMed

    Tyshenko, Michael G; Oraby, Tamer; Darshan, Shalu; Westphal, Margit; Croteau, Maxine C; Aspinall, Willy; Elsaadany, Susie; Krewski, Daniel; Cashman, Neil

    2016-01-01

    A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the "Classical Model" of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available. PMID:27556566

  11. Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease.

    PubMed

    Tyshenko, Michael G; Oraby, Tamer; Darshan, Shalu; Westphal, Margit; Croteau, Maxine C; Aspinall, Willy; Elsaadany, Susie; Krewski, Daniel; Cashman, Neil

    2016-01-01

    A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the "Classical Model" of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available.

  12. CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2012-10-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.

  13. Use of expert judgment elicitation to estimate seismic vulnerability of selected building types

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, K.S.; Aspinall, W.; Perkins, D.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.A.

    2012-01-01

    Pooling engineering input on earthquake building vulnerability through an expert judgment elicitation process requires careful deliberation. This article provides an overview of expert judgment procedures including the Delphi approach and the Cooke performance-based method to estimate the seismic vulnerability of a building category.

  14. Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiser, Ryan; Jenni, Karen; Seel, Joachim; Baker, Erin; Hand, Maureen; Lantz, Eric; Smith, Aaron

    2016-10-01

    Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends—in part—on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. Here, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world’s foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24–30% reductions by 2030 and 35–41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy and planning, R&D and industry strategy.

  15. The use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment: a seven step procedure

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Environmental health impact assessments often have to deal with substantial uncertainties. Typically, the knowledge-base is limited with incomplete, or inconsistent evidence and missing or ambiguous data. Consulting experts can help to identify and address uncertainties. Methods Formal expert elicitation is a structured approach to systematically consult experts on uncertain issues. It is most often used to quantify ranges for poorly known parameters, but may also be useful to further develop qualitative issues such as definitions, assumptions or conceptual (causal) models. A thorough preparation and systematic design and execution of an expert elicitation process may increase the validity of its outcomes and transparency and trustworthiness of its conclusions. Various expert elicitation protocols and methods exist. However, these are often not universally applicable, and need customization to suite the needs of a specific study. In this paper, we set out to develop a widely applicable method for the use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment. Results We present a practical yet flexible seven step procedure towards organising expert elicitation in the context of environmental health impact assessment, based on existing protocols. We describe how customization for specific applications is always necessary. In particular, three issues affect the choice of methods for a particular application: the types of uncertainties considered, the intended use of the elicited information, and the available resources. We outline how these three considerations guide choices regarding the design and execution of expert elicitation. We present signposts to sources where the issues are discussed in more depth to give the newcomer the insights needed to make the protocol work. The seven step procedure is illustrated using examples from earlier published elicitations in the field of environmental health research. Conclusions We conclude that, despite

  16. Expert elicitation for a national-level volcano hazard model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bebbington, Mark; Stirling, Mark; Cronin, Shane; Wang, Ting; Jolly, Gill

    2016-04-01

    The quantification of volcanic hazard at national level is a vital pre-requisite to placing volcanic risk on a platform that permits meaningful comparison with other hazards such as earthquakes. New Zealand has up to a dozen dangerous volcanoes, with the usual mixed degrees of knowledge concerning their temporal and spatial eruptive history. Information on the 'size' of the eruptions, be it in terms of VEI, volume or duration, is sketchy at best. These limitations and the need for a uniform approach lend themselves to a subjective hazard analysis via expert elicitation. Approximately 20 New Zealand volcanologists provided estimates for the size of the next eruption from each volcano and, conditional on this, its location, timing and duration. Opinions were likewise elicited from a control group of statisticians, seismologists and (geo)chemists, all of whom had at least heard the term 'volcano'. The opinions were combined via the Cooke classical method. We will report on the preliminary results from the exercise.

  17. Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lark, Murray

    2015-04-01

    At BGS, expert elicitation has been used to evaluate uncertainty of surveyed boundaries in several, common, geological scenarios. As a result, a 'collective' understanding of the issues surrounding each scenario has emerged. The work has provoked wider debate in three key areas: a) what can we do to resolve those scenarios where a 'consensus' of understanding cannot be achieved b) what does it mean for survey practices and subsequent use of maps in 3D models c) how do we communicate the 'collective' understanding of geological mapping (with or without consensus for specific scenarios). Previous work elicited expert judgement for uncertainty in six contrasting mapping scenarios. In five cases it was possible to arrive at a consensus model; in a sixth case experts with different experience (length of service, academic background) took very different views of the nature of the mapping problem. The scenario concerned identification of the boundary between two contrasting tills (one derived from Triassic source materials being red in colour; the other, derived from Jurassic materials being grey in colour). Initial debate during the elicitation identified that the colour contrast should provide some degree of confidence in locating the boundary via traditional auger-traverse survey methods. However, as the elicitation progressed, it became clear that the complexities of the relationship between the two Tills were not uniformly understood across the experts and the panel could not agree a consensus regarding the spatial uncertainty of the boundary. The elicitation process allowed a significant degree of structured knowledge-exchange between experts of differing backgrounds and was successful in identifying a measure of uncertainty for what was considered a contentious scenario. However, the findings have significant implications for a boundary-scenario that is widely mapped across the central regions of Great Britain. We will discuss our experience of the use of

  18. Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lee, Katy

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation. R. Lawley, M. Barron and K. Lee. NERC - British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, UK, NG12 5GG The boundaries mapped in traditional field geological survey are subject to a wide range of inherent uncertainties. A map at a survey-scale of 1:10,000 is created by a combination of terrain interpretation, direct observations from boreholes and exposures (often sparsely distributed), and indirect interpretation of proxy variables such as soil properties, vegetation and remotely sensed images. A critical factor influencing the quality of the final map is the skill and experience of the surveyor to bring this information together in a coherent conceptual model. The users of geological data comprising or based on mapped boundaries are increasingly aware of these uncertainties, and want to know how to manage them. The growth of 3D modelling, which takes 2D surveys as a starting point, adds urgency to the need for a better understanding of survey uncertainties; particularly where 2D mapping of variable vintage has been compiled into a national coverage. Previous attempts to apply confidence on the basis of metrics such as data density, survey age or survey techniques have proved useful for isolating single, critical, factors but do not generally succeed in evaluating geological mapping 'in the round', because they cannot account for the 'conceptual' skill set of the surveyor. The British Geological Survey (BGS) is using expert elicitation methods to gain a better understanding of uncertainties within the national geological map of Great Britain. The expert elicitation approach starts with the assumption that experienced surveyors have an intuitive sense of the uncertainty of the boundaries that they map, based on a tacit model of geology and its complexity and the nature of the surveying process. The objective of

  19. Elicitation by design in ecology: using expert opinion to inform priors for Bayesian statistical models.

    PubMed

    Choy, Samantha Low; O'Leary, Rebecca; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian statistical modeling has several benefits within an ecological context. In particular, when observed data are limited in sample size or representativeness, then the Bayesian framework provides a mechanism to combine observed data with other "prior" information. Prior information may be obtained from earlier studies, or in their absence, from expert knowledge. This use of the Bayesian framework reflects the scientific "learning cycle," where prior or initial estimates are updated when new data become available. In this paper we outline a framework for statistical design of expert elicitation processes for quantifying such expert knowledge, in a form suitable for input as prior information into Bayesian models. We identify six key elements: determining the purpose and motivation for using prior information; specifying the relevant expert knowledge available; formulating the statistical model; designing effective and efficient numerical encoding; managing uncertainty; and designing a practical elicitation protocol. We demonstrate this framework applies to a variety of situations, with two examples from the ecological literature and three from our experience. Analysis of these examples reveals several recurring important issues affecting practical design of elicitation in ecological problems.

  20. A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

    The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to- be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system makes it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is the most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for

  1. Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, M. Granger

    2014-01-01

    The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making. PMID:24821779

  2. Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

    PubMed

    Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods.

  3. Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases.

    PubMed

    Aspinall, W P; Cooke, R M; Havelaar, A H; Hoffmann, S; Hald, T

    2016-01-01

    For many societally important science-based decisions, data are inadequate, unreliable or non-existent, and expert advice is sought. In such cases, procedures for eliciting structured expert judgments (SEJ) are increasingly used. This raises questions regarding validity and reproducibility. This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert's statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values. Equal weights combinations were also calculated. The main conclusions on expert performance are: (1) SEJ does provide a science-based method for attribution of the global burden of foodborne diseases; (2) equal weighting of experts per panel increased statistical accuracy to acceptable levels, but at the cost of informativeness; (3) performance-based weighting increased informativeness, while retaining accuracy; (4) due to study constraints individual experts' accuracies were generally lower than in other SEJ studies, and (5) there was a negative correlation between experts' informativeness and statistical accuracy which attenuated as accuracy improved, revealing that the least accurate experts drive the negative correlation. It is shown, however, that performance-based weighting has the ability to yield statistically accurate and informative combinations of experts' judgments, thereby offsetting this contrary influence. The present findings suggest that application of SEJ on a large scale is feasible, and motivate the development of enhanced training and tools for remote

  4. Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases.

    PubMed

    Aspinall, W P; Cooke, R M; Havelaar, A H; Hoffmann, S; Hald, T

    2016-01-01

    For many societally important science-based decisions, data are inadequate, unreliable or non-existent, and expert advice is sought. In such cases, procedures for eliciting structured expert judgments (SEJ) are increasingly used. This raises questions regarding validity and reproducibility. This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert's statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values. Equal weights combinations were also calculated. The main conclusions on expert performance are: (1) SEJ does provide a science-based method for attribution of the global burden of foodborne diseases; (2) equal weighting of experts per panel increased statistical accuracy to acceptable levels, but at the cost of informativeness; (3) performance-based weighting increased informativeness, while retaining accuracy; (4) due to study constraints individual experts' accuracies were generally lower than in other SEJ studies, and (5) there was a negative correlation between experts' informativeness and statistical accuracy which attenuated as accuracy improved, revealing that the least accurate experts drive the negative correlation. It is shown, however, that performance-based weighting has the ability to yield statistically accurate and informative combinations of experts' judgments, thereby offsetting this contrary influence. The present findings suggest that application of SEJ on a large scale is feasible, and motivate the development of enhanced training and tools for remote

  5. Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Aspinall, W. P.; Cooke, R. M.; Havelaar, A. H.; Hoffmann, S.; Hald, T.

    2016-01-01

    For many societally important science-based decisions, data are inadequate, unreliable or non-existent, and expert advice is sought. In such cases, procedures for eliciting structured expert judgments (SEJ) are increasingly used. This raises questions regarding validity and reproducibility. This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert’s statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values. Equal weights combinations were also calculated. The main conclusions on expert performance are: (1) SEJ does provide a science-based method for attribution of the global burden of foodborne diseases; (2) equal weighting of experts per panel increased statistical accuracy to acceptable levels, but at the cost of informativeness; (3) performance-based weighting increased informativeness, while retaining accuracy; (4) due to study constraints individual experts’ accuracies were generally lower than in other SEJ studies, and (5) there was a negative correlation between experts' informativeness and statistical accuracy which attenuated as accuracy improved, revealing that the least accurate experts drive the negative correlation. It is shown, however, that performance-based weighting has the ability to yield statistically accurate and informative combinations of experts' judgments, thereby offsetting this contrary influence. The present findings suggest that application of SEJ on a large scale is feasible, and motivate the development of enhanced training and tools for remote

  6. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, Sonie; Yan, Jerry C.

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 1990s cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient implementation of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real-time demands are met for larger systems. Speedup via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial laboratories in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems is surveyed. The survey discusses multiprocessors for expert systems, parallel languages for symbolic computations, and mapping expert systems to multiprocessors. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. The main reasons are (1) the body of knowledge applicable in any given situation and the amount of computation executed by each rule firing are small, (2) dividing the problem solving process into relatively independent partitions is difficult, and (3) implementation decisions that enable expert systems to be incrementally refined hamper compile-time optimization. In order to obtain greater speedups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  7. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yan, Jerry C.; Lau, Sonie

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 90's cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient use of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real time demands are met for large expert systems. Speed-up via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial labs in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems was surveyed. The survey is divided into three major sections: (1) multiprocessors for parallel expert systems; (2) parallel languages for symbolic computations; and (3) measurements of parallelism of expert system. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. In order to obtain greater speed-ups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  8. Using expert elicitation to quantify catchment water balances and their uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sebok, E.; Refsgaard, J. C.; Warmink, J. J.; Stisen, S.; Jensen, K. H.

    2016-07-01

    Expert elicitation with the participation of 35 experts was used to estimate a water balance for the nested Ahlergaarde and Holtum catchments in Western Denmark. Average annual values of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and surface runoff as well as subsurface outflow and recharge and their uncertainty were estimated in a multistep elicitation, where experts first gave their opinion on the probability distribution of their water balance component of interest, then the average annual values and uncertainty of water balance components and catchment-scale water balances were obtained by reaching consensus during group discussions. The obtained water balance errors for the 1055 km2 Ahlergaarde catchment and 120 km2 Holtum catchment were -5 and -62 mm/yr, respectively, with an uncertainty of 66 and 86 mm/yr, respectively. As an advantage of the expert elicitation, drawing on the intuitive experience and capabilities of experts to assess complex, site-specific problems, the contribution of independent sources of uncertainties to the total uncertainty was also evaluated similarly to the subsurface outflow component, which traditionally is estimated as the residual of the water balance.

  9. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  10. Foodborne proportion of gastrointestinal illness: estimates from a Canadian expert elicitation survey.

    PubMed

    Ravel, André; Davidson, Valerie J; Ruzante, Juliana M; Fazil, Aamir

    2010-12-01

    The study used a structured expert elicitation survey to derive estimates of the foodborne attributable proportion for nine illnesses caused by enteric pathogens in Canada. It was based on a similar study conducted in the United States and focused on Campylobacter, Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica, Shigella spp., Vibrio spp., Yersinia enterocolitica, Cryptosporidium parvum, and Norwalk-like virus. For each pathogen, experts were asked to provide their best estimate and low and high limits for the proportion of foodborne illness relative to total cases. In addition, they provided background information with regard to food safety experience, including self-evaluated expertise for each pathogen on a 5-point scale. A snowball approach was used to identify 152 experts within Canada. The experts' background details were summarized using descriptive statistics. Factor analysis was used to determine whether the variability in best estimates was related to self-assessed level of expertise or other background information. Cluster analysis followed by beta function fitting was undertaken on best estimates from experts who self-evaluated their expertise 3 or higher. In parallel, Monte Carlo resampling was run using triangular distributions based on each expert's best estimate and its limits. Sixty-six experts encompassing various academic backgrounds, fields of expertise, and experiences relevant to food safety provided usable data. Considerable variation between experts in their estimated foodborne attributable proportions was observed over all diseases, without any relationship to the expert's background. Uncertainty about their estimate (measured by the low and high limits) varied between experts and between pathogens as well. Both cluster analysis and Monte Carlo resampling clearly indicated disagreement between experts for Campylobacter, E. coli O157, L. monocytogenes, Salmonella, Vibrio, and Y. enterocolitica. In the

  11. Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

    2004-01-01

    A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

  12. Flammable gas double shell tank expert elicitation presentations (Part A and Part B)

    SciTech Connect

    Bratzel, D.R.

    1998-04-17

    This document is a compilation of presentation packages and white papers for the Flammable Gas Double Shell Tank Expert Elicitation Workshop {number_sign}2. For each presentation given by the different authors, a separate section was developed. The purpose for issuing these workshop presentation packages and white papers as a supporting document is to provide traceability and a Quality Assurance record for future reference to these packages.

  13. Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard

    SciTech Connect

    K.J. Coppersmith; R.C. Perman; R.R. Youngs

    2006-05-10

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. Further, all uncertainty models should endeavor to consider the range of views of the larger technical community at the time the hazard analysis is conducted. In some cases, especially for large projects under regulatory review, formal structured methods for eliciting expert judgments have been employed. Experience has shown that certain key elements are required for these assessments to be successful, including: (1) experts should be trained in probability theory, uncertainty quantification, and ways to avoid common cognitive biases; (2) comprehensive and user-friendly databases should be provided to the experts; (3) experts should be required to evaluate all potentially credible hypotheses; (4) workshops and other interactions among the experts and proponents of published viewpoints should be encouraged; (5) elicitations are best conducted in individual interview sessions; (6) feedback should be provided to the experts to give them insight into the significance of alternative assessments to the hazard results; and (7) complete documentation should include the technical basis for all assessments. Case histories are given from seismic hazard analyses in Europe, western North America, and the stable continental region of the United States.

  14. Eliciting expert opinion on the effectiveness and practicality of interventions in the farm and rural environment to reduce human exposure to Escherichia coli O157.

    PubMed

    Cross, P; Rigby, D; Edwards-Jones, G

    2012-04-01

    Few hard data are available on emergent diseases. However, the need to mitigate and manage emergent diseases has prompted the use of various expert consultation and opinion elicitation methods. We adapted best-worst scaling (BWS) to elicit experts' assessment of the relative practicality and effectiveness of measures to reduce human exposure to E. coli O157. Cattle vaccination was considered the most effective and hand-washing was considered the most practical measure. BWS proved a powerful tool for expert elicitation as it breaks down a cognitively burdensome process into simple, repeated, tasks. In addition, statistical analysis of the resulting data provides a scaled set of scores for the measures, rather than just a ranking. The use of two criteria (practicality and effectiveness) within the BWS process allows the identification of subsets of measures judged as potentially performing well on both criteria, and conversely those judged to be neither effective nor practical.

  15. Assessing nutrient flows in septic tanks by eliciting expert judgement: a promising method in the context of developing countries.

    PubMed

    Montangero, Agnes; Belevi, Hasan

    2007-03-01

    Simple models based on the physical and biochemical processes occurring in septic tanks, pit and urine diversion latrines were developed to determine the nutrient flows in these systems. Nitrogen and phosphorus separation in different output materials from these on-site sanitation installations were thus determined. Moreover, nutrient separation in septic tanks was also assessed through literature values and by eliciting expert judgement. Use of formal expert elicitation technique proved to be effective, particularly in the context of developing countries where data is often scarce but expert judgement readily available. In Vietnam, only 5-14% and 11-27% of the nitrogen and phosphorus input, respectively, are removed from septic tanks with the faecal sludge. The remaining fraction leaves the tank via the liquid effluent. Unlike septic tanks, urine diversion latrines allow to immobilize most of the nutrients either in form of stored urine or dehydrated faecal matter. These latrines thus contribute to reducing the nutrient load in the environment and lowering consumption of energy and non-renewable resources for fertiliser production. PMID:17223156

  16. Assessing nutrient flows in septic tanks by eliciting expert judgement: a promising method in the context of developing countries.

    PubMed

    Montangero, Agnes; Belevi, Hasan

    2007-03-01

    Simple models based on the physical and biochemical processes occurring in septic tanks, pit and urine diversion latrines were developed to determine the nutrient flows in these systems. Nitrogen and phosphorus separation in different output materials from these on-site sanitation installations were thus determined. Moreover, nutrient separation in septic tanks was also assessed through literature values and by eliciting expert judgement. Use of formal expert elicitation technique proved to be effective, particularly in the context of developing countries where data is often scarce but expert judgement readily available. In Vietnam, only 5-14% and 11-27% of the nitrogen and phosphorus input, respectively, are removed from septic tanks with the faecal sludge. The remaining fraction leaves the tank via the liquid effluent. Unlike septic tanks, urine diversion latrines allow to immobilize most of the nutrients either in form of stored urine or dehydrated faecal matter. These latrines thus contribute to reducing the nutrient load in the environment and lowering consumption of energy and non-renewable resources for fertiliser production.

  17. Food-specific attribution of selected gastrointestinal illnesses: estimates from a Canadian expert elicitation survey.

    PubMed

    Davidson, Valerie J; Ravel, André; Nguyen, To N; Fazil, Aamir; Ruzante, Juliana M

    2011-09-01

    The study used a structured expert elicitation survey to derive estimates of food-specific attribution for nine illnesses caused by enteric pathogens in Canada. It was based on a similar survey conducted in the United States and focused on Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica, Shigella spp., Vibrio spp., Yersinia enterocolitica, Cryptosporidium parvum, and Norwalk-like virus. A snowball approach was used to identify food safety experts within Canada. Survey respondents provided background information as well as self-assessments of their expertise for each pathogen and the 12 food categories. Depending on the pathogen, food source attribution estimates were based on responses from between 10 and 35 experts. For each pathogen, experts divided their estimates of total foodborne illness across 12 food categories and they provided a best estimate for each category as well as 5th and 95th percentile limits for foods considered to be vehicles. Their responses were treated as triangular probability distributions, and linear aggregation was used to combine the opinions of each group of experts for each pathogen-food source group. Across the 108 pathogen-food groups, a majority of experts agreed on 30 sources and 48 nonsources for illness. The number of food groups considered to be pathogen sources by a majority of experts varied by pathogen from a low of one food source for Vibrio spp. (seafood) and C. parvum (produce) to a high of seven food sources for Salmonella spp. Beta distributions were fitted to the aggregated opinions and were reasonable representations for most of the pathogen-food group attributions. These results will be used to quantitatively assess the burden of foodborne illness in Canada as well as to analyze the uncertainty in our estimates. PMID:21561379

  18. Food-specific attribution of selected gastrointestinal illnesses: estimates from a Canadian expert elicitation survey.

    PubMed

    Davidson, Valerie J; Ravel, André; Nguyen, To N; Fazil, Aamir; Ruzante, Juliana M

    2011-09-01

    The study used a structured expert elicitation survey to derive estimates of food-specific attribution for nine illnesses caused by enteric pathogens in Canada. It was based on a similar survey conducted in the United States and focused on Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica, Shigella spp., Vibrio spp., Yersinia enterocolitica, Cryptosporidium parvum, and Norwalk-like virus. A snowball approach was used to identify food safety experts within Canada. Survey respondents provided background information as well as self-assessments of their expertise for each pathogen and the 12 food categories. Depending on the pathogen, food source attribution estimates were based on responses from between 10 and 35 experts. For each pathogen, experts divided their estimates of total foodborne illness across 12 food categories and they provided a best estimate for each category as well as 5th and 95th percentile limits for foods considered to be vehicles. Their responses were treated as triangular probability distributions, and linear aggregation was used to combine the opinions of each group of experts for each pathogen-food source group. Across the 108 pathogen-food groups, a majority of experts agreed on 30 sources and 48 nonsources for illness. The number of food groups considered to be pathogen sources by a majority of experts varied by pathogen from a low of one food source for Vibrio spp. (seafood) and C. parvum (produce) to a high of seven food sources for Salmonella spp. Beta distributions were fitted to the aggregated opinions and were reasonable representations for most of the pathogen-food group attributions. These results will be used to quantitatively assess the burden of foodborne illness in Canada as well as to analyze the uncertainty in our estimates.

  19. Expert nurses' clinical reasoning under uncertainty: representation, structure, and process.

    PubMed Central

    Fonteyn, M. E.; Grobe, S. J.

    1992-01-01

    How do expert nurses reason when planning care and making clinical decisions for a patient who is at risk, and whose outcome is uncertain? In this study, a case study involving a critically ill elderly woman whose condition deteriorated over time, was presented in segments to ten expert critical care nurses. Think aloud method was used to elicit knowledge from these experts to provide conceptual information about their knowledge and to reveal their reasoning processes and problem-solving strategies. The verbatim transcripts were then analyzed using a systematic three-step method that makes analysis easier and adds creditability to study findings by providing a means of retracing and explaining analysis results. Findings revealed information about how patient problems were represented during reasoning, the manner in which experts subjects structured their plan of care, and the reasoning processes and heuristics they used to formulate solutions for resolving the patient's problems and preventing deterioration in the patient's condition. PMID:1482907

  20. Joint USNRC/EC consequence uncertainty study: The ingestion pathway, dosimetry and health effects expert judgment elicitations and results

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, F.; Goossens, L.; Abbott, M.

    1996-08-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the European Commission (EC) have conducted a formal expert judgment elicitation jointly to systematically collect the quantitative information needed to perform consequence uncertainty analyses on a broad set of commercial nuclear power plants. Information from three sets of joint US/European expert panels was collected and processed. Information from the three sets of panels was collected in the following areas: in the phenomenological areas of atmospheric dispersion and deposition, in the areas of ingestion pathways and external dosimetry, and in the areas of health effects and internal dosimetry. This exercise has demonstrated that the uncertainty for particular issues as measured by the ratio of the 95th percentile to the 5th percentile can be extremely large (orders of magnitude), or rather small (factor of two). This information has already been used by many of the experts that were involved in this process in areas other than the consequence uncertainty field. The benefit to the field of radiological consequences is just beginning as the results of this study are published and made available to the consequence community.

  1. Parameterizing Bayesian network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models by Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

    2010-05-23

    Bayesian networks provide a general framework with which to model many natural phenomena. The mathematical nature of Bayesian networks enables a plethora of model validation and calibration techniques: e.g parameter estimation, goodness of fit tests, and diagnostic checking of the model assumptions. However, they are not free of shortcomings. Parameter estimation from relevant extant data is a common approach to calibrating the model parameters. In practice it is not uncommon to find oneself lacking adequate data to reliably estimate all model parameters. In this paper we present the early development of a novel application of conjoint analysis as a method for eliciting and modeling expert opinions and using the results in a methodology for calibrating the parameters of a Bayesian network.

  2. An Expert Elicitation Based Study of the Proliferation Resistance of a Suite of Nuclear Power Plants

    SciTech Connect

    Zentner, Michael D.; Therios, Ike; Bari, Robert A.; Cheng, Lap; Yue, Meng; Wigeland, Roald; Hassberger, Jim; Boyer, Brian; Pilat, Joseph

    2010-08-11

    In 2008, a multi-laboratory research team completed a study evaluating the proliferation resistance (PR) characteristics of a diverse suite of four advanced nuclear reactor designs. The systems evaluated included: • a light water reactor (a pressurized-water reactor), • a heavy water reactor, • a high temperature gas reactor (with a prismatic-block reactor core), • a sodium-cooled fast reactor. The team used an expert elicitation assessment approach based on the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) methodology. The team evaluated three general types of proliferation threats: 1) concealed diversion of material, 2) concealed misuse of the reactor to produce material, and 3) breakout. The evaluations took into account the intrinsic PR characteristics of each reactor and the extrinsic PR characteristics provided by generic safeguards the team considered appropriate for each reactor, based on the team’s experience and available conceptual design information.

  3. Eliciting information from experts on the likelihood of rapid climate change.

    PubMed

    Arnell, Nigel W; Tompkins, Emma L; Adger, W Neil

    2005-12-01

    The threat of so-called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to estimate likelihoods? This article reviews the societal demand for the likelihoods of rapid or abrupt climate change, and different methods for estimating likelihoods: past experience, model simulation, or through the elicitation of expert judgments. The article describes a survey to estimate the likelihoods of two characterizations of rapid climate change, and explores the issues associated with such surveys and the value of information produced. The surveys were based on key scientists chosen for their expertise in the climate science of abrupt climate change. Most survey respondents ascribed low likelihoods to rapid climate change, due either to the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation or increased positive feedbacks. In each case one assessment was an order of magnitude higher than the others. We explore a high rate of refusal to participate in this expert survey: many scientists prefer to rely on output from future climate model simulations.

  4. Eliciting information from experts on the likelihood of rapid climate change.

    PubMed

    Arnell, Nigel W; Tompkins, Emma L; Adger, W Neil

    2005-12-01

    The threat of so-called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to estimate likelihoods? This article reviews the societal demand for the likelihoods of rapid or abrupt climate change, and different methods for estimating likelihoods: past experience, model simulation, or through the elicitation of expert judgments. The article describes a survey to estimate the likelihoods of two characterizations of rapid climate change, and explores the issues associated with such surveys and the value of information produced. The surveys were based on key scientists chosen for their expertise in the climate science of abrupt climate change. Most survey respondents ascribed low likelihoods to rapid climate change, due either to the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation or increased positive feedbacks. In each case one assessment was an order of magnitude higher than the others. We explore a high rate of refusal to participate in this expert survey: many scientists prefer to rely on output from future climate model simulations. PMID:16506972

  5. We’re only in it for the knowledge? A problem solving turn in environment and health expert elicitation

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The FP6 EU HENVINET project aimed at synthesizing the scientific information available on a number of topics of high relevance to policy makers in environment and health. The goal of the current paper is to reflect on the methodology that was used in the project, in view of exploring the usefulness of this and similar methodologies to the policy process. The topics investigated included health impacts of the brominated flame retardants decabrominated diphenylether (decaBDE) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), phthalates highlighting di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP), the pesticide chlorpyrifos (CPF), nanoparticles, the impacts of climate change on asthma and other respiratory disorders, and the influence of environment health stressors on cancer induction. Methods Initially the focus was on identifying knowledge gaps in the state of the art in scientific knowledge. Literature reviews covered all elements that compose the causal chain of the different environmental health issues from emissions to exposures, to effects and to health impacts. Through expert elicitation, knowledge gaps were highlighted by assessing expert confidence using calibrated confidence scales. During this work a complementary focus to that on knowledge gaps was developed through interdisciplinary reflections. By extending the scope of the endeavour from only a scientific perspective, to also include the more problem solving oriented policy perspective, the question of which kind of policy action experts consider justifiable was addressed. This was addressed by means of a questionnaire. In an expert workshop the results of both questionnaires were discussed as a basis for policy briefs. Results The expert elicitation, the application of the calibrated confidence levels and the problem solving approach were all experienced as being quite challenging for the experts involved, as these approaches did not easily relate to mainstream environment and health scientific practices. Even so, most

  6. Elicitation of expert judgments of uncertainty in the risk assessment of herbicide-tolerant oilseed crops.

    PubMed

    Krayer von Krauss, Martin P; Casman, Elizabeth A; Small, Mitchell J

    2004-12-01

    One of the lay public's concerns about genetically modified (GM) organisms (GMO) and related emerging technologies is that not all the important risks are evaluated or even identified yet--and that ignorance of the unanticipated risks could lead to severe environmental or public health consequences. To some degree, even the scientists who participated in the analysis of the risks from GMOs (arguably the people most qualified to critique these analyses) share some of this concern. To formally explore the uncertainty in the risk assessment of a GM crop, we conducted detailed interviews of seven leading experts on GM oilseed crops to obtain qualitative and quantitative information on their understanding of the uncertainties associated with the risks to agriculture from GM oilseed crops (canola or rapeseed). The results of these elicitations revealed three issues of potential concern that are currently left outside the scope of risk assessments. These are (1) the potential loss of the agronomic and environmental benefits of glyphosate (a herbicide widely used in no-till agriculture) due to the combined problems of glyphosate-tolerant canola and wheat volunteer plants, (2) the growing problem of seed lot contamination, and (3) the potential market impacts. The elicitations also identified two areas where knowledge is insufficient. These are: the occurrence of hybridization between canola and wild relatives and the ability of the hybrids to perpetuate themselves in nature, and the fate of the herbicide-tolerance genes in soil and their interaction with soil microfauna and -flora. The methodological contribution of this work is a formal approach to analyzing the uncertainty surrounding complex problems.

  7. Which uncertainty? Using expert elicitation and expected value of information to design an adaptive program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, Michael C.; Converse, Sarah J.; Lyons, James E.

    2011-01-01

    Natural resource management is plagued with uncertainty of many kinds, but not all uncertainties are equally important to resolve. The promise of adaptive management is that learning in the short-term will improve management in the long-term; that promise is best kept if the focus of learning is on those uncertainties that most impede achievement of management objectives. In this context, an existing tool of decision analysis, the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), is particularly valuable in identifying the most important uncertainties. Expert elicitation can be used to develop preliminary predictions of management response under a series of hypotheses, as well as prior weights for those hypotheses, and the EVPI can be used to determine how much management could improve if uncertainty was resolved. These methods were applied to management of whooping cranes (Grus americana), an endangered migratory bird that is being reintroduced in several places in North America. The Eastern Migratory Population of whooping cranes had exhibited almost no successful reproduction through 2009. Several dozen hypotheses can be advanced to explain this failure, and many of them lead to very different management responses. An expert panel articulated the hypotheses, provided prior weights for them, developed potential management strategies, and made predictions about the response of the population to each strategy under each hypothesis. Multi-criteria decision analysis identified a preferred strategy in the face of uncertainty, and analysis of the expected value of information identified how informative each strategy could be. These results provide the foundation for design of an adaptive management program.

  8. Eliciting climate experts' knowledge to address model uncertainties in regional climate projections: a case study of Guanacaste, Northwest Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossmann, I.; Steyn, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    Global general circulation models typically cannot provide the detailed and accurate regional climate information required by stakeholders for climate adaptation efforts, given their limited capacity to resolve the regional topography and changes in local sea surface temperature, wind and circulation patterns. The study region in Northwest Costa Rica has a tropical wet-dry climate with a double-peak wet season. During the dry season the central Costa Rican mountains prevent tropical Atlantic moisture from reaching the region. Most of the annual precipitation is received following the northward migration of the ITCZ in May that allows the region to benefit from moist southwesterly flow from the tropical Pacific. The wet season begins with a short period of "early rains" and is interrupted by the mid-summer drought associated with the intensification and westward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high in late June. Model projections for the 21st century indicate a lengthening and intensification of the mid-summer drought and a weakening of the early rains on which current crop cultivation practices rely. We developed an expert elicitation to systematically address uncertainties in the available model projections of changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Our approach extends an elicitation approach developed previously at Carnegie Mellon University. Experts in the climate of the study region or Central American climate were asked to assess the mechanisms driving precipitation during each part of the season, uncertainties regarding these mechanisms, expected changes in each mechanism in a warming climate, and the capacity of current models to reproduce these processes. To avoid overconfidence bias, a step-by-step procedure was followed to estimate changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation during each part of the season. The questions drew upon interviews conducted with the regions stakeholders to assess their climate information needs. This

  9. Expert systems in the process industries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanley, G. M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of industrial applications of real-time knowledge based expert systems (KBES's) in the process industries. After a brief overview of the features of a KBES useful in process applications, the general roles of KBES's are covered. A particular focus is diagnostic applications, one of the major applications areas. Many applications are seen as an expansion of supervisory control. The lessons learned from numerous online applications are summarized.

  10. Expert Robots For Automated Packaging And Processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slutzky, G. D.; Hall, E. L.; Shell, R. L.

    1989-02-01

    A variety of problems in automated packaging and processing seem ready for expert robotic solutions. Such problems as automated palletizing, bin-picking, automated stoilw and retrieval, automated kitting of parts for assembly, and automated warehousing are currently being considered. The use of expert robots which consist of specialized computer programs, manipulators and integrated sensors has been demonstrated with robot Chedkers, peg games, etc. Actual solutions for automated palletizing, pit-carb basket loading, etc. have also been developed for industrial applications at our Center. The generic concepts arising from this research will be described, unsolved problems discussed, and some important tools demonstrated. The significance of this work lies in its broad application to a host of generic industrial problems which can improve quality, reduce waste, are eliminate human injuries.

  11. Policy relevant results from an expert elicitation on the health risks of phthalates

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The EU 6th Framework Program (FP)-funded Health and Environment Network (HENVINET) aimed to support informed policy making by facilitating the availability of relevant knowledge on different environmental health issues. An approach was developed by which scientific agreement, disagreement, and knowledge gaps could be efficiently identified, and expert advice prepared in a way that is usable for policy makers. There were two aims of the project: 1) to apply the tool to a relevant issue; the potential health impacts of the widely used plasticizers, phthalates, and 2) to evaluate the method and the tool by asking both scientific experts and the target audience, namely policy makers and stakeholders, for their opinions. Methods The tool consisted of an expert consultation in several steps on the issue of phthalates in environmental health. A diagram depicting the cause-effect chain, from the production and use of phthalates to potential health impacts, was prepared based on existing reviews. This was used as a basis for an online questionnaire, through which experts in the field were consulted. The results of this first round of consultation laid the foundation for a new questionnaire answered by an expert panel that, subsequently, also discussed approaches and results in a workshop. One major task of the expert panel was to pinpoint priorities from the cause-effect chain according to their impact on the extent of potential health risks and their relevance for reducing uncertainty. The results were condensed into a policy brief that was sent to policy makers and stakeholders for their evaluation. Results The experts agreed about the substantial knowledge gaps within the field of phthalates. The top three priorities for further research and policy action were: 1) intrauterine exposure, 2) reproductive toxicology, and 3) exposure from medical devices. Although not all relevant information from the cause-effect chain is known for phthalates, most experts

  12. Statistical weld process monitoring with expert interpretation

    SciTech Connect

    Cook, G.E.; Barnett, R.J.; Strauss, A.M.; Thompson, F.M. Jr.

    1996-12-31

    A statistical weld process monitoring system is described. Using data of voltage, current, wire feed speed, gas flow rate, travel speed, and elapsed arc time collected while welding, the welding statistical process control (SPC) tool provides weld process quality control by implementing techniques of data trending analysis, tolerance analysis, and sequential analysis. For purposes of quality control, the control limits required for acceptance are specified in the weld procedure acceptance specifications. The control charts then provide quality assurance documentation for each weld. The statistical data trending analysis performed by the SPC program is not only valuable as a quality assurance monitoring and documentation system, it is also valuable in providing diagnostic assistance in troubleshooting equipment and material problems. Possible equipment/process problems are identified and matched with features of the SPC control charts. To aid in interpreting the voluminous statistical output generated by the SPC system, a large number of If-Then rules have been devised for providing computer-based expert advice for pinpointing problems based on out-of-limit variations of the control charts. The paper describes the SPC monitoring tool and the rule-based expert interpreter that has been developed for relating control chart trends to equipment/process problems.

  13. Can increased biomass offset carbon release from permafrost region soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert elicitation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbott, B. W.; Jones, J.; Schuur, E. A.; Bowden, W. B.; Chapin, F. S., III; Epstein, H. E.; Flannigan, M.; Harms, T.; Hollingsworth, T. N.; Mack, M. C.; Natali, S.; Rocha, A. V.; Tank, S. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Vonk, J.; Wickland, K.

    2013-12-01

    As the permafrost region warms, up to 288 Pg carbon (CO2 equivalent) may be released from soil by the end of the century, and up to 616 Pg by 2300. This soil carbon can be released to the atmosphere directly via mineralization or wildfire, or enter aquatic ecosystems as dissolved or particulate organic or inorganic carbon. Some models predict an increase in Arctic and boreal living biomass in response to extended growing season, enhanced nutrient cycling, and CO2 fertilization, but we have a poor understanding of how the production of new biomass will compare with loss of carbon from permafrost thaw. We administered surveys to permafrost region experts to assess current understanding of the magnitude and timing of biomass accumulation, hydrologic carbon flux, and wildfire carbon losses. Surveys addressed three time periods (present to 2040, 2100, and 2300) and four warming scenarios based on IPCC representative concentration pathways. Estimates of change in biomass and fire losses were provided individually for the boreal forest and arctic tundra. Experts estimated changes in carbon delivery to freshwater ecosystems as well as delivery to the ocean, including carbon release due to coastal erosion, fluxes infrequently captured in high-latitude models. Initial expert estimates indicated that while tundra biomass would increase substantially, total permafrost region biomass would decrease by the end of the century due to boreal forest drying and browning, followed by a modest increase by 2300 due to vegetation community shifts. Changes in aquatic systems could release an additional 2.7 Pg carbon by 2100 and 7.3 Pg by 2300. Modified wildfire regime could cause the release of an additional 13.6 Pg carbon by 2100 and 51.7 Pg by 2300. Current expert understanding therefore suggests that carbon gains in high-latitude biomass will be orders of magnitude smaller than carbon loss from permafrost soils and that hydrologic and wildfire pathways of carbon loss will likely

  14. ISA implementation and uncertainty: a literature review and expert elicitation study.

    PubMed

    van der Pas, J W G M; Marchau, V A W J; Walker, W E; van Wee, G P; Vlassenroot, S H

    2012-09-01

    Each day, an average of over 116 people die from traffic accidents in the European Union. One out of three fatalities is estimated to be the result of speeding. The current state of technology makes it possible to make speeding more difficult, or even impossible, by placing intelligent speed limiters (so called ISA devices) in vehicles. Although the ISA technology has been available for some years now, and reducing the number of road traffic fatalities and injuries has been high on the European political agenda, implementation still seems to be far away. Experts indicate that there are still too many uncertainties surrounding ISA implementation, and dealing with these uncertainties is essential for implementing ISA. In this paper, a systematic and representative inventory of the uncertainties is made based upon the literature. Furthermore, experts in the field of ISA were surveyed and asked which uncertainties are barriers for ISA implementation, and how uncertain these uncertainties are. We found that the long-term effects and the effects of large-scale implementation of ISA are still uncertain and are the most important barriers for the implementation of the most effective types of ISA. One way to deal with these uncertainties would be to start implementation on a small scale and gradually expand the penetration, in order to learn how ISA influences the transport system over time.

  15. Policy relevant Results from an Expert Elicitation on the Human Health Risks of Decabromodiphenyl ether (decaBDE) and Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD)

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Aim Apply a recently developed expert elicitation procedure to evaluate the state of the current knowledge of the two brominated flame retardants (BFRs) most commonly used today; decabromo-diphenyl ether (decaBDE) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) and their potential impact on human health in order to support policy considerations. This expert elicitation was organized by the HENVINET (Health and Environment Network) Consortium. Method The HENVINET expert elicitation procedure that was used in the evaluations of decaBDE and HBCD is a rapid assessment tool aimed at highlighting areas of agreement and areas of disagreement on knowledge-related key issues for environment and health policy decision making. Results The outcome of the expert consultation on BFRs was concrete expert advice for policy makers with specific priorities for further action made clear for both stakeholders and policy makers. The experts were not in agreement whether or not the knowledge currently available on decaBDE or HBCD is sufficient to justify policy actions, but most experts considered that enough data already exists to support a ban or restriction on the use of these compounds. All experts agreed on the necessity of more research on the compounds. Priority issues for further research were, among others: • more studies on the extent of human exposure to the compounds. • more studies on the fate and concentration in the human body of the compounds. PMID:22759507

  16. MERS-CoV at the Animal–Human Interface: Inputs on Exposure Pathways from an Expert-Opinion Elicitation

    PubMed Central

    Funk, Anna L.; Goutard, Flavie Luce; Miguel, Eve; Bourgarel, Mathieu; Chevalier, Veronique; Faye, Bernard; Peiris, J. S. Malik; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Roger, Francois Louis

    2016-01-01

    Nearly 4 years after the first report of the emergence of Middle-East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and nearly 1800 human cases later, the ecology of MERS-CoV, its epidemiology, and more than risk factors of MERS-CoV transmission between camels are poorly understood. Knowledge about the pathways and mechanisms of transmission from animals to humans is limited; as of yet, transmission risks have not been quantified. Moreover the divergent sanitary situations and exposures to animals among populations in the Arabian Peninsula, where human primary cases appear to dominate, vs. other regions in the Middle East and Africa, with no reported human clinical cases and where the virus has been detected only in dromedaries, represents huge scientific and health challenges. Here, we have used expert-opinion elicitation in order to obtain ideas on relative importance of MERS-CoV risk factors and estimates of transmission risks from various types of contact between humans and dromedaries. Fourteen experts with diverse and extensive experience in MERS-CoV relevant fields were enrolled and completed an online questionnaire that examined pathways based on several scenarios, e.g., camels–camels, camels–human, bats/other species to camels/humans, and the role of diverse biological substances (milk, urine, etc.) and potential fomites. Experts believed that dromedary camels play the largest role in MERS-CoV infection of other dromedaries; however, they also indicated a significant influence of the season (i.e. calving or weaning periods) on transmission risk. All experts thought that MERS-CoV-infected dromedaries and asymptomatic humans play the most important role in infection of humans, with bats and other species presenting a possible, but yet undefined, risk. Direct and indirect contact of humans with dromedary camels were identified as the most risky types of contact, when compared to consumption of various camel products, with estimated “most likely

  17. Developing a Methodology for Eliciting Subjective Probability Estimates During Expert Evaluations of Safety Interventions: Application for Bayesian Belief Networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wiegmann, Douglas A.a

    2005-01-01

    The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has defined several products that will potentially modify airline and/or ATC operations, enhance aircraft systems, and improve the identification of potential hazardous situations within the National Airspace System (NAS). Consequently, there is a need to develop methods for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the judgments to develop Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN's) that model the potential impact that specific interventions may have. Specifically, the present report summarizes methodologies for improving the elicitation of probability estimates during expert evaluations of AvSP products for use in BBN's. The work involved joint efforts between Professor James Luxhoj from Rutgers University and researchers at the University of Illinois. The Rutgers' project to develop BBN's received funding by NASA entitled "Probabilistic Decision Support for Evaluating Technology Insertion and Assessing Aviation Safety System Risk." The proposed project was funded separately but supported the existing Rutgers' program.

  18. Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion.

    PubMed

    Gale, P; Brouwer, A; Ramnial, V; Kelly, L; Kosmider, R; Fooks, A R; Snary, E L

    2010-02-01

    Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change.

  19. Expert model process control of composite materials in a press

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saliba, Tony E.; Quinter, Suzanne R.; Abrams, Frances L.

    An expert model for the control of the press processing of thermoset composite materials has been developed. The knowledge base written using the PC PLUS expert system shell was interfaced with models written in FORTRAN. The expert model, which is running on a single computer with a single processor, takes advantage of the symbol-crunching capability of LISP and the number crunching capability of FORTRAN. The Expert Model control system is a qualitative-quantitative process automation (QQPA) system since it includes both quantitative model-based and qualitative rule-based expert system operations. Various physical and mechanical properties were measured from panels processed using the two cycles. Using QQPA, processing time has been reduced significantly without altering product quality.

  20. The digital storytelling process: A comparative analysis from various experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hussain, Hashiroh; Shiratuddin, Norshuhada

    2016-08-01

    Digital Storytelling (DST) is a method of delivering information to the audience. It combines narrative and digital media content infused with the multimedia elements. In order for the educators (i.e the designers) to create a compelling digital story, there are sets of processes introduced by experts. Nevertheless, the experts suggest varieties of processes to guide them; of which some are redundant. The main aim of this study is to propose a single guide process for the creation of DST. A comparative analysis is employed where ten DST models from various experts are analysed. The process can also be implemented in other multimedia materials that used the concept of DST.

  1. ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

    Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

  2. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables.

  3. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa R.; Kelly, Angelita C.

    1987-01-01

    The Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) is an integral part of the Space Shuttle data network for missions that involve attached scientific payloads. Expert system prototypes were developed to aid in the performance of the quality assurance function of the Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads processed telemetry data. The Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS), two expert systems, were developed to determine their feasibility and potential in the quality assurance of processed telemetry data. The capabilities and performance of these systems are discussed.

  4. Concurrent Data Elicitation Procedures, Processes, and the Early Stages of L2 Learning: A Critical Overview

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leow, Ronald P.; Grey, Sarah; Marijuan, Silvia; Moorman, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    Given the current methodological interest in eliciting direct data on the cognitive processes L2 learners employ as they interact with L2 data during the early stages of the learning process, this article takes a critical and comparative look at three concurrent data elicitation procedures currently employed in the SLA literature: Think aloud (TA)…

  5. An expert system for natural language processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hennessy, John F.

    1988-01-01

    A solution to the natural language processing problem that uses a rule based system, written in OPS5, to replace the traditional parsing method is proposed. The advantage to using a rule based system are explored. Specifically, the extensibility of a rule based solution is discussed as well as the value of maintaining rules that function independently. Finally, the power of using semantics to supplement the syntactic analysis of a sentence is considered.

  6. Formalizing expert judgment in the environmental impact assessment process

    SciTech Connect

    Lein, J.K. . Dept. of Geography)

    1993-01-01

    As the debate surrounding the adequacy of the environmental impact statement (EIS) process and its intended role in environmental decision-making continues, there is growing concern that the present guidelines used to develop the EIS may not be adequate given the methodological and theoretical advances that have been introduced in environmental impact assessment (EIA) since the last Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) revisions. This concern is particularly evident when the issues surrounding the application of expert judgment and the role it plays in impact prediction are considered. Presently, there is no standardized procedure for applying expert judgment in EIA, and although the use of expert judgment has long been acknowledged in the impact assessment literature, methodologies that draw upon expert judgment have not attempted to render those judgmental aspects of an assessment visible to decision-makers. This paper presents an approach for formalizing expert judgment using the experience gained from the development of expert systems designed to assist the EIA process. Following a critical examination of judgmental approaches to impact prediction, this paper illustrates how through the application of the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence and fuzzy logic, substantive improvements in EIA can be made, moving the practice of impact assessment more closely into alignment with the goals expressed in Section 102(2)(a) and Section 102(2)(b) of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969.

  7. Process Diagnosis Expert System Using First Principles and Functional Component

    1998-11-24

    PRODIAG is an expert system that performs online diagnosis of faulty components in thermal hydraulic processes. Given measurements of temperatures, pressure, flows, and liquid levels, PRODIAG identifies the possible faulty component candidates at the process level. It is a stand alone code, but can be used in conjunction with a component level program to distinguish among the possible faulty component candidates.

  8. Expert elicitation as a means to attribute 28 enteric pathogens to foodborne, waterborne, animal contact, and person-to-person transmission routes in Canada.

    PubMed

    Butler, Ainslie J; Thomas, M Kate; Pintar, Katarina D M

    2015-04-01

    Enteric illness contributes to a significant burden of illness in Canada and globally. Understanding its sources is a critical step in identifying and preventing health risks. Expert elicitation is a powerful tool, used previously, to obtain information about enteric illness source attribution where information is difficult or expensive to obtain. Thirty-one experts estimated transmission of 28 pathogens via major transmission routes (foodborne, waterborne, animal contact, person-to-person, and other) at the point of consumption. The elicitation consisted of a (snowball) recruitment phase; administration of a pre-survey to collect background information, an introductory webinar, an elicitation survey, a 1-day discussion, survey readministration, and a feedback exercise, and surveys were administered online. Experts were prompted to quantify changes in contamination at the point of entry into the kitchen versus point of consumption. Estimates were combined via triangular probability distributions, and medians and 90% credible-interval estimates were produced. Transmission was attributed primarily to food for Bacillus cereus, Clostridium perfringens, Cyclospora cayetanensis, Trichinella spp., all three Vibrio spp. categories explored, and Yersinia enterocolitica. Multisource pathogens (e.g., transmitted commonly through both water and food) such as Campylobacter spp., four Escherichia coli categories, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., and Staphylococcus aureus were also estimated as mostly foodborne. Water was the primary pathway for Giardia spp. and Cryptosporidium spp., and person-to-person transmission dominated for six enteric viruses and Shigella spp. Consideration of the point of attribution highlighted the importance of food handling and cross-contamination in the transmission pathway. This study provides source attribution estimates of enteric illness for Canada, considering all possible transmission routes. Further research is necessary to improve our

  9. World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation

    PubMed Central

    Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie H.; Gibb, Herman J.; Torgerson, Paul R.; Kirk, Martyn D.; Angulo, Fred J.; Lake, Robin J.; Speybroeck, Niko; Hoffmann, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    Background The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food. Methods and Findings We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke’s Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific ‘seed’ questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke’s Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the ‘target’ questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts

  10. The Expert Group Work Supervision Process: Apperception, Actions, and Interactions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rubel, Deborah; Atieno Okech, Jane E.

    2009-01-01

    The researchers conducted a systematic exploration of the experiences of expert group work supervisors during the supervision process. This article's purpose is to report results that inform intentional practice and illustrate supervision interventions for group work supervisors. Results indicated that participants experienced an interactive…

  11. An expert systems application to space base data processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Babb, Stephen M.

    1988-01-01

    The advent of space vehicles with their increased data requirements are reflected in the complexity of future telemetry systems. Space based operations with its immense operating costs will shift the burden of data processing and routine analysis from the space station to the Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV). A research and development project is described which addresses the real time onboard data processing tasks associated with a space based vehicle, specifically focusing on an implementation of an expert system.

  12. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, Angelita C.; Basile, Lisa; Ames, Troy; Watson, Janice; Dallam, William

    1987-01-01

    Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) expert system prototypes have been developed to assist in the quality assurance of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payload (ASP) processed telemetry data. SLDPF functions include the capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of mission data to various user facilities. Prototypes for the two SLDPF functional elements, the Spacelab Output Processing System and the Spacelab Input Processing Element, are described. The prototypes have produced beneficial results including an increase in analyst productivity, a decrease in the burden of tedious analyses, the consistent evaluation of data, and the providing of concise historical records.

  13. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, Angelita C.; Basile, Lisa; Ames, Troy; Watson, Janice; Dallam, William

    1987-01-01

    Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) expert system prototypes were developed to assist in the quality assurance of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payload (ASP) processed telemetry data. The SLDPF functions include the capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of mission data to various user facilities. Prototypes for the two SLDPF functional elements, the Spacelab Output Processing System and the Spacelab Input Processing Element, are described. The prototypes have produced beneficial results including an increase in analyst productivity, a decrease in the burden of tedious analyses, the consistent evaluation of data, and the providing of concise historical records.

  14. A Case Study of Requirements Elicitation Process with Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakatani, Takako; Hori, Shouzo; Ubayashi, Naoyasu; Katamine, Keiichi; Hashimoto, Masaaki

    Requirements changes sometimes cause a project to fail. A lot of projects now follow incremental development processes so that new requirements and requirements changes can be incorporated as soon as possible. These processes are called integrated requirements processes, which function to integrate requirements processes with other developmental processes. We have quantitatively and qualitatively investigated the requirements processes of a specific project from beginning to end. Our focus is to clarify the types of necessary requirements based on the components contained within a certain portion of the software architecture. Further, each type reveals its typical requirements processes through its own rationale. This case study is a system to manage the orders and services of a restaurant. In this paper, we introduce the case and categorize its requirements processes based on the components of the system and the qualitative characteristics of ISO-9126. We could identify seven categories of the typical requirements process to be managed and/or controlled. Each category reveals its typical requirements processes and their characteristics. The case study is our first step of practical integrated requirements engineering.

  15. Artificial intelligence, expert systems, computer vision, and natural language processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gevarter, W. B.

    1984-01-01

    An overview of artificial intelligence (AI), its core ingredients, and its applications is presented. The knowledge representation, logic, problem solving approaches, languages, and computers pertaining to AI are examined, and the state of the art in AI is reviewed. The use of AI in expert systems, computer vision, natural language processing, speech recognition and understanding, speech synthesis, problem solving, and planning is examined. Basic AI topics, including automation, search-oriented problem solving, knowledge representation, and computational logic, are discussed.

  16. A Step-Wise Approach to Elicit Triangular Distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenberg, Marc W.

    2013-01-01

    Adapt/combine known methods to demonstrate an expert judgment elicitation process that: 1.Models expert's inputs as a triangular distribution, 2.Incorporates techniques to account for expert bias and 3.Is structured in a way to help justify expert's inputs. This paper will show one way of "extracting" expert opinion for estimating purposes. Nevertheless, as with most subjective methods, there are many ways to do this.

  17. Expert panel reviews of research centers: the site visit process.

    PubMed

    Lawrenz, Frances; Thao, Mao; Johnson, Kelli

    2012-08-01

    Site visits are used extensively in a variety of settings within the evaluation community. They are especially common in making summative value decisions about the quality and worth of research programs/centers. However, there has been little empirical research and guidance about how to appropriately conduct evaluative site visits of research centers. We review the processes of two site visit examples using an expert panel review: (1) a process to evaluate four university research centers and (2) a process to review a federally sponsored research center. A set of 14 categories describing the expert panel review process was obtained through content analysis and participant observation. Most categories were addressed differently through the two processes highlighting the need for more research about the most effective processes to use within different contexts. Decisions about how to structure site visits appear to depend on the research context, practical considerations, the level at which the review is being conducted and the intended impact of the report. Future research pertaining to the selection of site visitors, the autonomy of the visitors in data collection and report writing, and the amount and type of information provided would be particularly valuable.

  18. Cellular defense processes regulated by pathogen-elicited receptor signaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Rongcong; Goldsipe, Arthur; Schauer, David B.; Lauffenburger, Douglas A.

    2011-06-01

    Vertebrates are constantly threatened by the invasion of microorganisms and have evolved systems of immunity to eliminate infectious pathogens in the body. Initial sensing of microbial agents is mediated by the recognition of pathogens by means of molecular structures expressed uniquely by microbes of a given type. So-called 'Toll-like receptors' are expressed on host epithelial barrier cells play an essential role in the host defense against microbial pathogens by inducing cell responses (e.g., proliferation, death, cytokine secretion) via activation of intracellular signaling networks. As these networks, comprising multiple interconnecting dynamic pathways, represent highly complex multi-variate "information processing" systems, the signaling activities particularly critical for governing the host cell responses are poorly understood and not easily ascertained by a priori theoretical notions. We have developed over the past half-decade a "data-driven" computational modeling approach, on a 'cue-signal-response' combined experiment/computation paradigm, to elucidate key multi-variate signaling relationships governing the cell responses. In an example presented here, we study how a canonical set of six kinase pathways combine to effect microbial agent-induced apoptotic death of a macrophage cell line. One modeling technique, partial least-squares regression, yielded the following key insights: {a} signal combinations most strongly correlated to apoptotic death are orthogonal to those most strongly correlated with release of inflammatory cytokines; {b} the ratio of two key pathway activities is the most powerful predictor of microbe-induced macrophage apoptotic death; {c} the most influential time-window of this signaling activity ratio is surprisingly fast: less than one hour after microbe stimulation.

  19. Prospective Elementary Mathematics Teachers' Thought Processes on a Model Eliciting Activity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eraslan, Ali

    2012-01-01

    Mathematical model and modeling are one of the topics that have been intensively discussed in recent years. The purpose of this study is to examine prospective elementary mathematics teachers' thought processes on a model eliciting activity and reveal difficulties or blockages in the processes. The study includes forty-five seniors taking the…

  20. Rhythm evokes action: early processing of metric deviances in expressive music by experts and laymen revealed by ERP source imaging.

    PubMed

    James, Clara E; Michel, Christoph M; Britz, Juliane; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Hauert, Claude-Alain

    2012-12-01

    To examine how musical expertise tunes the brain to subtle metric anomalies in an ecological musical context, we presented piano compositions ending on standard and deviant cadences (endings) to expert pianists and musical laymen, while high-density EEG was recorded. Temporal expectancies were manipulated by substituting standard "masculine" cadences at metrically strong positions with deviant, metrically unaccented, "feminine" cadences. Experts detected metrically deviant cadences better than laymen. Analyses of event-related potentials demonstrated that an early P3a-like component (~150-300 ms), elicited by musical closure, was significantly enhanced at frontal and parietal electrodes in response to deviant endings in experts, whereas a reduced response to deviance occurred in laymen. Putative neuronal sources contributing to the modulation of this component were localized in a network of brain regions including bilateral supplementary motor areas, middle and posterior cingulate cortex, precuneus, associative visual areas, as well as in the right amygdala and insula. In all these regions, experts showed enhanced responses to metric deviance. Later effects demonstrated enhanced activations within the same brain network, as well as higher processing speed for experts. These results suggest that early brain responses to metric deviance in experts may rely on motor representations mediated by the supplementary motor area and motor cingulate regions, in addition to areas involved in self-referential imagery and relevance detection. Such motor representations could play a role in temporal sensory prediction evolved from musical training and suggests that rhythm evokes action more strongly in highly trained instrumentalists.

  1. An expert system for processing uncorrelated satellite tracks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hecker, Michael A.

    1992-12-01

    Through an array of ground based radar sights and optical cameras, the United States military tracks objects in near and far Earth orbit. The sensors provide epoch and ephemeris information that is used to update a database of known objects. While a majority of the sensor observations are matched to their corresponding satellites, a small percentage are beyond the capabilities of current software and cannot be correlated. These uncorrelated targets, UCT's, must be manually fitted by orbital analysts in a labor intensive process. As an alternative to this human intervention, the use of artificial intelligence techniques to augment the present computer code was explored. Specifically, an expert system for processing UCT's at the Naval Space Surveillance Command was developed. Rules were generated through traditional knowledge engineering methods and by a novel application of machine learning. The initial results are very good with the operational portions of the system matching the performance of the experts with an accuracy of 99%. Although not yet complete, the code developed in this research definitely shows the potential of using artificial intelligence to process UCT'S.

  2. Business Process Elicitation, Modeling, and Reengineering: Teaching and Learning with Simulated Environments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jeyaraj, Anand

    2010-01-01

    The design of enterprise information systems requires students to master technical skills for elicitation, modeling, and reengineering business processes as well as soft skills for information gathering and communication. These tacit skills and behaviors cannot be effectively taught students but rather experienced and learned by students. This…

  3. Eliciting and Developing Teachers' Conceptions of Random Processes in a Probability and Statistics Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Toni M.; Hjalmarson, Margret A.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine prospective mathematics specialists' engagement in an instructional sequence designed to elicit and develop their understandings of random processes. The study was conducted with two different sections of a probability and statistics course for K-8 teachers. Thirty-two teachers participated. Video analyses…

  4. Development of an instructional expert system for hole drilling processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Al-Mutawa, Souhaila; Srinivas, Vijay; Moon, Young Bai

    1990-01-01

    An expert system which captures the expertise of workshop technicians in the drilling domain was developed. The expert system is aimed at novice technicians who know how to operate the machines but have not acquired the decision making skills that are gained with experience. This paper describes the domain background and the stages of development of the expert system.

  5. Explainable expert systems: A research program in information processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paris, Cecile L.

    1993-01-01

    Our work in Explainable Expert Systems (EES) had two goals: to extend and enhance the range of explanations that expert systems can offer, and to ease their maintenance and evolution. As suggested in our proposal, these goals are complementary because they place similar demands on the underlying architecture of the expert system: they both require the knowledge contained in a system to be explicitly represented, in a high-level declarative language and in a modular fashion. With these two goals in mind, the Explainable Expert Systems (EES) framework was designed to remedy limitations to explainability and evolvability that stem from related fundamental flaws in the underlying architecture of current expert systems.

  6. Breadth in Design Problem Scoping: Using Insights from Experts to Investigate Student Processes. Research Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morozov, Andrew; Kilgore, Deborah; Atman, Cynthia

    2007-01-01

    In this study, the authors used two methods for analyzing expert data: verbal protocol analysis (VPA) and narrative analysis. VPA has been effectively used to describe the design processes employed by engineering students, expert designers, and expert-novice comparative research. VPA involves asking participants to "think aloud" while…

  7. Differences in the Educational Software Evaluation Process for Experts and Novice Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tokmak, Hatice Sancar; Incikabi, Lutfi; Yelken, Tugba Yanpar

    2012-01-01

    This comparative case study investigated the educational software evaluation processes of both experts and novices in conjunction with a software evaluation checklist. Twenty novice elementary education students, divided into groups of five, and three experts participated. Each novice group and the three experts evaluated educational software…

  8. Literally experts: expertise and the processing of analogical metaphors in pharmaceutical advertising.

    PubMed

    Delbaere, Marjorie; Smith, Malcolm C

    2014-01-01

    This research examined differences between novices and experts in processing analogical metaphors appearing in prescription drug advertisements. In contrast to previous studies on knowledge transfer, no evidence of the superiority of experts in processing metaphors was found. The results from an experiment suggest that expert consumers were more likely to process a metaphor in an ad literally than novices. Our findings point to a condition in which the expertise effect with processing analogies is not the linear relationship assumed in previous studies.

  9. Expert system and process optimization techniques for real-time monitoring and control of plasma processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Jie; Qian, Zhaogang; Irani, Keki B.; Etemad, Hossein; Elta, Michael E.

    1991-03-01

    To meet the ever-increasing demand of the rapidly-growing semiconductor manufacturing industry it is critical to have a comprehensive methodology integrating techniques for process optimization real-time monitoring and adaptive process control. To this end we have accomplished an integrated knowledge-based approach combining latest expert system technology machine learning method and traditional statistical process control (SPC) techniques. This knowledge-based approach is advantageous in that it makes it possible for the task of process optimization and adaptive control to be performed consistently and predictably. Furthermore this approach can be used to construct high-level and qualitative description of processes and thus make the process behavior easy to monitor predict and control. Two software packages RIST (Rule Induction and Statistical Testing) and KARSM (Knowledge Acquisition from Response Surface Methodology) have been developed and incorporated with two commercially available packages G2 (real-time expert system) and ULTRAMAX (a tool for sequential process optimization).

  10. Associative and spontaneous appraisal processes independently contribute to anger elicitation in daily life.

    PubMed

    Wilkowski, Benjamin M; Robinson, Michael D

    2010-04-01

    There has been a great deal of debate concerning the antecedents of anger, with appraisal theorists emphasizing the role of hostile interpretations and cognitive neo-associationistic theorists emphasizing the role of more basic associative processes. Recently, theorists have sought to reconcile these views by acknowledging the role of both associative and inferential processes, and the current investigation drew upon recent social-cognitive research to test this compromise. Individual differences in hostile inferences and associations were assessed in an implicit cognitive paradigm, and relevant outcomes were assessed in a daily diary protocol. Implicit hostile inferences predicted both anger and aggression in daily life, and such relationships were mediated by propensities toward hostile interpretations in daily life. Hostile associations also predicted anger in daily life, but this relationship proved to be independent of daily hostile interpretations. Results therefore support a model that acknowledges the role of both associative and appraisal processes in anger elicitation.

  11. Essays on probability elicitation scoring rules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firmino, Paulo Renato A.; dos Santos Neto, Ademir B.

    2012-10-01

    In probability elicitation exercises it has been usual to considerer scoring rules (SRs) to measure the performance of experts when inferring about a given unknown, Θ, for which the true value, θ*, is (or will shortly be) known to the experimenter. Mathematically, SRs quantify the discrepancy between f(θ) (the distribution reflecting the expert's uncertainty about Θ) and d(θ), a zero-one indicator function of the observation θ*. Thus, a remarkable characteristic of SRs is to contrast expert's beliefs with the observation θ*. The present work aims at extending SRs concepts and formulas for the cases where Θ is aleatory, highlighting advantages of goodness-of-fit and entropy-like measures. Conceptually, it is argued that besides of evaluating the personal performance of the expert, SRs may also play a role when comparing the elicitation processes adopted to obtain f(θ). Mathematically, it is proposed to replace d(θ) by g(θ), the distribution that model the randomness of Θ, and do also considerer goodness-of-fit and entropylike metrics, leading to SRs that measure the adherence of f(θ) to g(θ). The implications of this alternative perspective are discussed and illustrated by means of case studies based on the simulation of controlled experiments. The usefulness of the proposed approach for evaluating the performance of experts and elicitation processes is investigated.

  12. The effects of rational and experiential information processing of expert testimony in death penalty cases.

    PubMed

    Krauss, Daniel A; Lieberman, Joel D; Olson, Jodi

    2004-01-01

    Past research examining the effects of actuarial and clinical expert testimony on defendants' dangerousness in Texas death penalty sentencing has found that jurors are more influenced by less scientific pure clinical expert testimony and less influenced by more scientific actuarial expert testimony (Krauss & Lee, 2003; Krauss & Sales, 2001). By applying cognitive-experiential self-theory (CEST) to juror decision-making, the present study was undertaken in an attempt to offer a theoretical rationale for these findings. Based on past CEST research, 163 mock jurors were either directed into a rational mode or experiential mode of processing. Consistent with CEST and inconsistent with previous research using the same stimulus materials, results demonstrate that jurors in a rational mode of processing more heavily weighted actuarial expert testimony in their dangerousness assessments, while those jurors in the experiential condition were more influenced by clinical expert testimony. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.

  13. Counter-regulating on the Internet: Threat elicits preferential processing of positive information.

    PubMed

    Greving, Hannah; Sassenberg, Kai; Fetterman, Adam

    2015-09-01

    The Internet is a central source of information. It is increasingly used for information search in self-relevant domains (e.g., health). Self-relevant topics are also associated with specific emotions and motivational states. For example, individuals may fear serious illness and feel threatened. Thus far, the impact of threat has received little attention in Internet-based research. The current studies investigated how threat influences Internet search. Threat is known to elicit the preferential processing of positive information. The self-directed nature of Internet search should particularly provide opportunities for such processing behavior. We predicted that during Internet search, more positive information would be processed (i.e., allocated more attention to) and more positive knowledge would be acquired under threat than in a control condition. Three experiments supported this prediction: Under threat, attention is directed more to positive web pages (Study 1) and positive links (Study 2), and more positive information is acquired (Studies 1 and 3) than in a control condition. Notably, the effect on knowledge acquisition was mediated by the effect on attention allocation during an actual Internet search (Study 1). Thus, Internet search under threat leads to selective processing of positive information and dampens threatened individuals' negative affect.

  14. RFID-Based Critical Path Expert System for Agility Manufacture Process Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Haifang; Xiang, Yuli

    This paper presents a critical path expert system for the agility manufacture process management based on radio frequency identification (RFID) technology. The paper explores that the agility manufacture processes can be visible and controllable with RFID. The critical paths or activities can be easily found out and tracked by the RFID tracing technology. And the expert system can optimize the bottle neck of the task process of the agility management with the critical path adjusting and reforming method. Finally, the paper gives a simple application example of the system to discuss how to adjust the critical paths and how to make the process more agility and flexibility with the critical path expert system. With an RFID-based critical path expert system, the agility manufacture process management will be more effective and efficient.

  15. UPDATING AN EXPERT ELICITATION IN THE LIGHT OF NEW DATA: TEN YEARS OF PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PROPOSED HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

    SciTech Connect

    F.V. Perry; A. Cogbill; R. Kelley

    2005-08-26

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) considers volcanism to be a potentially disruptive class of events that could affect the safety of the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields depends on an adequate understanding of the temporal and spatial pattern of past eruptions. At Yucca Mountain, the hazard is due to an 11 Ma-history of basaltic volcanism with the latest eruptions occurring in three Pleistocene episodes to the west and south of Yucca Mountain. An expert elicitation convened in 1995-1996 by the DOE estimated the mean hazard of volcanic disruption of the repository as slightly greater than 10{sup -8} dike intersections per year with an uncertainty of about two orders of magnitude. Several boreholes in the region have encountered buried basalt in alluvial-filled basins; the youngest of these basalts is dated at 3.8 Ma. The possibility of additional buried basalt centers is indicated by a previous regional aeromagnetic survey conducted by the USGS that detected approximately 20 magnetic anomalies that could represent buried basalt volcanoes. Sensitivity studies indicate that the postulated presence of buried post-Miocene volcanoes to the east of Yucca Mountain could increase the hazard by an order of magnitude, and potentially significantly impact the results of the earlier expert elicitation. Our interpretation of the aeromagnetic data indicates that post-Miocene basalts are not present east of Yucca Mountain, but that magnetic anomalies instead represent faulted and buried Miocene basalt that correlates with nearby surface exposures. This interpretation is being tested by drilling. The possibility of uncharacterized buried volcanoes that could significantly change hazard estimates led DOE to support an update of the expert elicitation in 2004-2006. In support of the expert elicitation data needs, the DOE is sponsoring (1) a new higher-resolution, helicopter-borne aeromagnetic survey

  16. Expert model for intelligent control of composite materials processing in a press

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saliba, Tony E.; Quinter, Suzanne R.; Abrams, Frances L.

    1992-02-01

    An expert model for the in-process control of the press processing of thermoset composite materials has been developed. The knowledge base written using Personal Consultant Plus (PC Plus) expert system shell was interfaced with models written in FORTRAN. The expert model, which is running on a single computer with a single processor, takes advantage of the symbol crunching capability of the LISP computer language and the number crunching capability of FORTRAN. The expert model control system is a qualitative-quantitative process automation (QQPA) system since it includes both quantitative model-based and qualitative rule-based expert system operations. The feasibility of using models to determine the process state when sensors are not available or are malfunctioning was demonstrated. Hercules 3501-6/AS4 8-in x 8-in panels were processed in the heated-platens press, using both the standard cure cycle and the expert model control system. Various physical and mechanical properties were measured from panels processed using the two cycles. Using QQPA, processing time has been reduced significantly without altering product quality.

  17. Identification and evaluation of scientific uncertainties related to fish and aquatic resources in the Colorado River, Grand Canyon - summary and interpretation of an expert-elicitation questionnaire

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kennedy, Theodore A.

    2013-01-01

    Identifying areas of scientific uncertainty is a critical step in the adaptive management process (Walters, 1986; Runge, Converse, and Lyons, 2011). To identify key areas of scientific uncertainty regarding biologic resources of importance to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) convened Knowledge Assessment Workshops in May and July 2005. One of the products of these workshops was a set of strategic science questions that highlighted key areas of scientific uncertainty. These questions were intended to frame and guide the research and monitoring activities conducted by the GCMRC in subsequent years. Questions were developed collaboratively by scientists and managers. The questions were not all of equal importance or merit—some questions were large scale and others were small scale. Nevertheless, these questions were adopted and have guided the research and monitoring efforts conducted by the GCMRC since 2005. A new round of Knowledge Assessment Workshops was convened by the GCMRC in June and October 2011 and January 2012 to determine whether the research and monitoring activities conducted since 2005 had successfully answered some of the strategic science questions. Oral presentations by scientists highlighting research findings were a centerpiece of all three of the 2011–12 workshops. Each presenter was also asked to provide an answer to the strategic science questions that were specific to the presenter’s research area. One limitation of this approach is that these answers represented the views of the handful of scientists who developed the presentations, and, as such, they did not incorporate other perspectives. Thus, the answers provided by presenters at the Knowledge Assessment Workshops may not have accurately captured the sentiments of the broader group of scientists involved in research and monitoring of the Colorado River in Glen and Grand Canyons. Yet a fundamental ingredient of

  18. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three basalt waste isolation project staff hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The present study implemented a probability encoding method to estimate the probability distributions of selected hydrologic variables for the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior, and the anisotropy ratio of the interior of the Cohassett basalt flow beneath the Hanford Site. Site-speciic data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. However, this information is required to complete preliminary performance assessment studies. Rockwell chose a probability encoding method developed by SRI International to generate credible and auditable estimates of the probability distributions of effective porosity and hydraulic conductivity anisotropy. The results indicate significant differences of opinion among the experts. This was especially true of the values of the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow interior for which estimates differ by more than five orders of magnitude. The experts are in greater agreement about the values of effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top; their estimates for this variable are generally within one to two orders of magnitiude of each other. For anisotropy ratio, the expert estimates are generally within two or three orders of magnitude of each other. Based on this study, the Rockwell hydrologists estimate the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top to be generally higher than do the independent experts. For the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a smaller uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts. On the other hand, for the effective porosity and anisotropy ratio of the Cohassett basalt flow interior, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a larger uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts.

  19. Design Expert's Participation in Elementary Students' Collaborative Design Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kangas, Kaiju; Seitamaa-Hakkarainen, Pirita; Hakkarainen, Kai

    2013-01-01

    The main goal of the present study was to provide insights into how disciplinary expertise might be infused into Design and Technology classrooms and how authentic processes based on professional design practices might be constructed. We describe elementary students' collaborative lamp designing process, where the leadership was provided by a…

  20. Expert system for testing industrial processes and determining sensor status

    DOEpatents

    Gross, K.C.; Singer, R.M.

    1998-06-02

    A method and system are disclosed for monitoring both an industrial process and a sensor. The method and system include determining a minimum number of sensor pairs needed to test the industrial process as well as the sensor for evaluating the state of operation of both. The technique further includes generating a first and second signal characteristic of an industrial process variable. After obtaining two signals associated with one physical variable, a difference function is obtained by determining the arithmetic difference between the pair of signals over time. A frequency domain transformation is made of the difference function to obtain Fourier modes describing a composite function. A residual function is obtained by subtracting the composite function from the difference function and the residual function (free of nonwhite noise) is analyzed by a statistical probability ratio test. 24 figs.

  1. Expert system for testing industrial processes and determining sensor status

    DOEpatents

    Gross, Kenneth C.; Singer, Ralph M.

    1998-01-01

    A method and system for monitoring both an industrial process and a sensor. The method and system include determining a minimum number of sensor pairs needed to test the industrial process as well as the sensor for evaluating the state of operation of both. The technique further includes generating a first and second signal characteristic of an industrial process variable. After obtaining two signals associated with one physical variable, a difference function is obtained by determining the arithmetic difference between the pair of signals over time. A frequency domain transformation is made of the difference function to obtain Fourier modes describing a composite function. A residual function is obtained by subtracting the composite function from the difference function and the residual function (free of nonwhite noise) is analyzed by a statistical probability ratio test.

  2. Knowledge elicitation for an operator assistant system in process control tasks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boy, Guy A.

    1988-01-01

    A knowledge based system (KBS) methodology designed to study human machine interactions and levels of autonomy in allocation of process control tasks is presented. Users are provided with operation manuals to assist them in normal and abnormal situations. Unfortunately, operation manuals usually represent only the functioning logic of the system to be controlled. The user logic is often totally different. A method is focused on which illicits user logic to refine a KBS shell called an Operator Assistant (OA). If the OA is to help the user, it is necessary to know what level of autonomy gives the optimal performance of the overall man-machine system. For example, for diagnoses that must be carried out carefully by both the user and the OA, interactions are frequent, and processing is mostly sequential. Other diagnoses can be automated, in which the case the OA must be able to explain its reasoning in an appropriate level of detail. OA structure was used to design a working KBS called HORSES (Human Orbital Refueling System Expert System). Protocol analysis of pilots interacting with this system reveals that the a-priori analytical knowledge becomes more structured with training and the situation patterns more complex and dynamic. This approach can improve the a-priori understanding of human and automatic reasoning.

  3. Expert Knowledge, Distinctiveness, and Levels of Processing in Language Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bird, Steve

    2012-01-01

    The foreign language vocabulary learning research literature often attributes strong mnemonic potency to the cognitive processing of meaning when learning words. Routinely cited as support for this idea are experiments by Craik and Tulving (C&T) demonstrating superior recognition and recall of studied words following semantic tasks ("deep"…

  4. A microanalytic study of self-regulated learning processes of expert, non-expert, and at-risk science students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dibenedetto, Maria K.

    2009-12-01

    The present investigation sought to examine differences in the self-regulated learning processes and beliefs of students who vary in their level of expertise in science and to investigate if there are gender differences. Participants were 51 ethnically diverse 11th grade students from three parochial high schools consisting of 34 females and 17 males. Students were grouped as either expert, non-expert, or at-risk based on the school's classification. Students were provided with a short passage on tornados to read and study. The two achievement measures obtained were the Tornado Knowledge Test : ten short-answer questions and the Conceptual Model Test : a question which required the students to draw and describe the three sequential images of tornado development from the textual description of the three phases. A microanalytic methodology was used which consists of asking a series of questions aimed at assessing students' psychological behaviors, feelings, and thoughts in each of Zimmerman's three phases of self-regulation: forethought, performance, and reflection. These questions were asked of the students while they were engaged in learning. Two additional measures were obtained: the Rating Student Self-Regulated Learning Outcomes: A Teacher Scale (RSSRL) and the Self-Efficacy for Self-Regulated Learning (SELF). Analysis of variance, chi square analysis, and post hoc test results showed significant expertise differences, large effect sizes, and positive linear trends on most measures. Regarding gender, there were significant differences on only two measures. Correlational analyses also revealed significant relations among the self-regulatory subprocesses across the three phases. The microanalytic measures were combined across the three phases and entered into a regression formula to predict the students' scores on the Tornado Knowledge Test. These self-regulatory processes explained 77% of the variance in the Tornado Knowledge Test, which was a significant and

  5. Expert Models and Modeling Processes Associated with a Computer-Modeling Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, BaoHui; Liu, Xiufeng; Krajcik, Joseph S.

    2006-01-01

    Holding the premise that the development of expertise is a continuous process, this study concerns expert models and modeling processes associated with a modeling tool called Model-It. Five advanced Ph.D. students in environmental engineering and public health used Model-It to create and test models of water quality. Using "think aloud" technique…

  6. Holistic processing of musical notation: Dissociating failures of selective attention in experts and novices.

    PubMed

    Wong, Yetta Kwailing; Gauthier, Isabel

    2010-12-01

    Holistic processing (i.e., the tendency to process objects as wholes) is associated with face perception and also with expertise individuating novel objects. Surprisingly, recent work also reveals holistic effects in novice observers. It is unclear whether the same mechanisms support holistic effects in experts and in novices. In the present study, we measured holistic processing of music sequences using a selective attention task in participants who vary in music-reading expertise. We found that holistic effects were strategic in novices but were relatively automatic in experts. Correlational analyses revealed that individual holistic effects were predicted by both individual music-reading ability and neural responses for musical notation in the right fusiform face area (rFFA), but in opposite directions for experts and novices, suggesting that holistic effects in the two groups may be of different natures. To characterize expert perception, it is important not only to measure the tendency to process objects as wholes, but also to test whether this effect is dependent on task constraints.

  7. Learning from Experts: Fostering Extended Thinking in the Early Phases of the Design Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haupt, Grietjie

    2015-01-01

    Empirical evidence on the way in which expert designers from different domains cognitively connect their internal processes with external resources is presented in the context of an extended cognition model. The article focuses briefly on the main trends in the extended design cognition theory and in particular on recent trends in information…

  8. Expert models and modeling processes associated with a computer-modeling tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Baohui; Liu, Xiufeng; Krajcik, Joseph S.

    2006-07-01

    Holding the premise that the development of expertise is a continuous process, this study concerns expert models and modeling processes associated with a modeling tool called Model-It. Five advanced Ph.D. students in environmental engineering and public health used Model-It to create and test models of water quality. Using think aloud technique and video recording, we captured their computer screen modeling activities and thinking processes. We also interviewed them the day following their modeling sessions to further probe the rationale of their modeling practices. We analyzed both the audio-video transcripts and the experts' models. We found the experts' modeling processes followed the linear sequence built in the modeling program with few instances of moving back and forth. They specified their goals up front and spent a long time thinking through an entire model before acting. They specified relationships with accurate and convincing evidence. Factors (i.e., variables) in expert models were clustered, and represented by specialized technical terms. Based on the above findings, we made suggestions for improving model-based science teaching and learning using Model-It.

  9. Expert system technology for nondestructive waste assay

    SciTech Connect

    Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

    1998-07-01

    Nondestructive assay waste characterization data generated for use in the National TRU Program must be of known and demonstrable quality. Each measurement is required to receive an independent technical review by a qualified expert. An expert system prototype has been developed to automate waste NDA data review of a passive/active neutron drum counter system. The expert system is designed to yield a confidence rating regarding measurement validity. Expert system rules are derived from data in a process involving data clustering, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Expert system performance is assessed against confidence assignments elicited from waste NDA domain experts. Performance levels varied for the active, passive shielded, and passive system assay modes of the drum counter system, ranging from 78% to 94% correct classifications.

  10. Eliciting Expertise.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mills, William deB.

    1989-01-01

    Recommends using expert systems on personal computers in the classroom to teach international relations. Claims these systems can reach conclusions as reliable as those of a human expert. Explains that the system compels students to draw conclusions based on clarity of thought because they rely on a body of logically consistent rules. (NL)

  11. Application of machine learning and expert systems to Statistical Process Control (SPC) chart interpretation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shewhart, Mark

    1991-01-01

    Statistical Process Control (SPC) charts are one of several tools used in quality control. Other tools include flow charts, histograms, cause and effect diagrams, check sheets, Pareto diagrams, graphs, and scatter diagrams. A control chart is simply a graph which indicates process variation over time. The purpose of drawing a control chart is to detect any changes in the process signalled by abnormal points or patterns on the graph. The Artificial Intelligence Support Center (AISC) of the Acquisition Logistics Division has developed a hybrid machine learning expert system prototype which automates the process of constructing and interpreting control charts.

  12. An expert system for ensuring the reliability of the technological process of cold sheet metal forming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kashapova, L. R.; Pankratov, D. L.; Utyaganov, P. P.

    2016-06-01

    In order to exclude periodic defects in the parts manufacturing obtained by cold sheet metal forming a method of automated estimation of technological process reliability was developed. The technique is based on the analysis of reliability factors: detail construction, material, mechanical and physical requirements; hardware settings, tool characteristics, etc. In the work the expert system is presented based on a statistical accumulation of the knowledge of the operator (technologist) and decisions of control algorithms.

  13. An Image Retrieval and Processing Expert System for the World Wide Web

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodriguez, Ricardo; Rondon, Angelica; Bruno, Maria I.; Vasquez, Ramon

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents a system that is being developed in the Laboratory of Applied Remote Sensing and Image Processing at the University of P.R. at Mayaguez. It describes the components that constitute its architecture. The main elements are: a Data Warehouse, an Image Processing Engine, and an Expert System. Together, they provide a complete solution to researchers from different fields that make use of images in their investigations. Also, since it is available to the World Wide Web, it provides remote access and processing of images.

  14. Cognitive processes as integrative component for developing expert decision-making systems: a workflow centered framework.

    PubMed

    Jalote-Parmar, Ashis; Badke-Schaub, Petra; Ali, Wajid; Samset, Eigil

    2010-02-01

    The development of expert decision-making systems, which improve task performance and reduce errors within an intra-operative clinical workspace, is critically dependent on two main aspects: (a) Analyzing the clinical requirements and cognitive processes within the workflow and (b) providing an optimal context for accurate situation awareness through effective intra-operative information visualization. This paper presents a workflow centered framework and its theoretical underpinnings to design expert decision-making systems. The framework integrates knowledge of the clinical workflow based on the requirements within the clinical workspace. Furthermore, it builds upon and integrates the theory of situation awareness into system design to improve decision-making. As an application example, this framework has been used to design an intra-operative visualization system (IVS), which provides image guidance to the clinicians to perform minimally invasive procedure. An evaluative study, comparing the traditional ultrasound guided procedure with the new developed IVS, has been conducted with expert intervention radiologists and medical students. The results reveal significant evidence for improved decision-making when using the IVS. Therefore, it can be stated that this study demonstrates the benefits of integrating knowledge of cognitive processes into system development to support clinical decision-making and hence improvement of task performance and prevention of errors.

  15. Studying the Accuracy of Software Process Elicitation: The User Articulated Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crabtree, Carlton A.

    2010-01-01

    Process models are often the basis for demonstrating improvement and compliance in software engineering organizations. A descriptive model is a type of process model describing the human activities in software development that actually occur. The purpose of a descriptive model is to provide a documented baseline for further process improvement…

  16. Psychology of developing and designing expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.; MacGregor, D.

    1986-01-01

    This paper discusses psychological problems relevant to developing and designing expert systems. With respect to the former, the psychological literature suggests that several cognitive biases may affect the elicitation of a valid knowledge base from the expert. The literature also suggests that common expert system inference engines may be quite inconsistent with reasoning heuristics employed by experts. With respect to expert system user interfaces, care should be taken when eliciting uncertainty estimates from users, presenting system conclusions, and ordering questions.

  17. Energy Efficiency Policy in Arizona Public Participation and Expert Consultation in the Policy Implementation Process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bryck, Drew

    Many different levels of government, organizations, and programs actively shape the future of energy in Arizona, a state that lacks a comprehensive energy plan. Disparate actions by multiple actors may slow the energy policy process rather than expedite it. The absence of a state energy policy or plan raises questions about how multiple actors and ideas engage with state energy policy development and whether the absence of a comprehensive state plan can be understood. Improving how policy development is conceptualized and giving more focused attention to the mechanisms by which interested parties become involved in shaping Arizona energy policy. To explore these questions, I examine the future energy efficiency. Initially, public engagement mechanisms were examined for their role in policy creation from a theoretical perspective. Next a prominent public engagement forum that was dedicated to the topic of the Arizona's energy future was examined, mapping its process and conclusions onto a policy process model. The first part of this thesis involves an experimental expert consultation panel which was convened to amplify and refine the results of a public forum. The second part utilizes an online follow up survey to complete unfinished ideas from the focus group. The experiment flowed from a hypothesis that formal expert discussion on energy efficiency policies, guided by the recommendations put forth by the public engagement forum on energy in Arizona, would result in an increase in relevance while providing a forum for interdisciplinary collaboration that is atypical in today's energy discussions. This experiment was designed and evaluated utilizing a public engagement framework that incorporated theoretical and empirical elements. Specifically, I adapted elements of three methods of public and expert engagement used in policy development to create a consultation process that was contextualized to energy efficiency stakeholders in Arizona and their unique

  18. Processes in construction of failure management expert systems from device design information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malin, Jane T.; Lance, Nick

    1987-01-01

    This paper analyzes the tasks and problem solving methods used by an engineer in constructing a failure management expert system from design information about the device to te diagnosed. An expert test engineer developed a trouble-shooting expert system based on device design information and experience with similar devices, rather than on specific expert knowledge gained from operating the device or troubleshooting its failures. The construction of the expert system was intensively observed and analyzed. This paper characterizes the knowledge, tasks, methods, and design decisions involved in constructing this type of expert system, and makes recommendations concerning tools for aiding and automating construction of such systems.

  19. Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

    DOEpatents

    Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

    2004-11-30

    A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

  20. Deduction Electrified: ERPs Elicited by the Processing of Words in Conditional Arguments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonnefond, Mathilde; Van der Henst, Jean-Baptiste

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the ERP components associated with the processing of words that are critical to generating and rejecting deductive conditional Modus Ponens arguments ("If P then Q; P//"Therefore, "Q"). The generation of a logical inference is investigated by placing a verb in the minor premise that matches the one used in the antecedent of…

  1. The NERV Methodology: Non-Functional Requirements Elicitation, Reasoning and Validation in Agile Processes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Domah, Darshan

    2013-01-01

    Agile software development has become very popular around the world in recent years, with methods such as Scrum and Extreme Programming (XP). Literature suggests that functionality is the primary focus in Agile processes while non-functional requirements (NFR) are either ignored or ill-defined. However, for software to be of good quality both…

  2. Pre-Service Teachers' Modelling Processes through Engagement with Model Eliciting Activities with a Technological Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daher, Wajeeh M.; Shahbari, Juhaina Awawdeh

    2015-01-01

    Engaging mathematics students with modelling activities helps them learn mathematics meaningfully. This engagement, in the case of model eliciting activities, helps the students elicit mathematical models by interpreting real-world situation in mathematical ways. This is especially true when the students utilize technology to build the models.…

  3. PRODIAG: Combined expert system/neural network for process fault diagnosis. Volume 2, Code manual

    SciTech Connect

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1995-09-01

    We recommend the reader first review Volume 1 of this document, Code Theory, before reading Volume 2. In this volume we make extensive use of terms and concepts described and defined in Volume 1 which are not redefined here to the same extent. To try to reduce the amount of redundant information, we have restricted this volume to the presentation of the expert system code and refer back to the theory described in Volume 1 when necessary. Verification and validation of the results are presented in Volume 3, Application, of this document. Volume 3 also presents the implementation of the component characteristics diagnostic approach through artificial neural networks discussed in Volume 1. We decided to present the component characteristics approach in Volume 3, as opposed to write a separate code manual for it, because the approach, although general, requires a case-by-case analysis. The purpose of this volume is to present the details of the expert system (ES) portion o the PRODIAG process diagnostic program. In addition, we present here the graphical diagnostics interface (GDI) and illustrate the combined use of the ES and GDI with a sample problem. For completeness, we provide the file names of all files, programs and major subroutines of these two systems, ES and GDI, and their corresponding location in the Reactor Analysis Division (RA) computer network and Reactor Engineering Division (RE) computer network as of 30 September 1995.

  4. Thinking within the box: The relational processing style elicited by counterfactual mind-sets.

    PubMed

    Kray, Laura J; Galinsky, Adam D; Wong, Elaine M

    2006-07-01

    By comparing reality to what might have been, counterfactuals promote a relational processing style characterized by a tendency to consider relationships and associations among a set of stimuli. As such, counterfactual mind-sets were expected to improve performance on tasks involving the consideration of relationships and associations but to impair performance on tasks requiring novel ideas that are uninfluenced by salient associations. The authors conducted several experiments to test this hypothesis. In Experiments 1a and 1b, the authors determined that counterfactual mind-sets increase mental states and preferences for thinking styles consistent with relational thought. Experiment 2 demonstrated a facilitative effect of counterfactual mind-sets on an analytic task involving logical relationships; Experiments 3 and 4 demonstrated that counterfactual mind-sets structure thought and imagination around salient associations and therefore impaired performance on creative generation tasks. In Experiment 5, the authors demonstrated that the detrimental effect of counterfactual mind-sets is limited to creative tasks involving novel idea generation; in a creative association task involving the consideration of relationships between task stimuli, counterfactual mind-sets improved performance.

  5. Breast Implant–associated Anaplastic Large Cell Lymphoma: Updated Results from a Structured Expert Consultation Process

    PubMed Central

    Predmore, Zachary S.; Mattke, Soeren; van Busum, Kristin; Gidengil, Courtney A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Despite increased cases published on breast implant–associated anaplastic large cell lymphoma (BIA-ALCL), important clinical issues remain unanswered. We conducted a second structured expert consultation process to rate statements related to the diagnosis, management, and surveillance of this disease, based on their interpretation of published evidence. Methods: A multidisciplinary panel of 12 experts was selected based on nominations from national specialty societies, academic department heads, and recognized researchers in the United States. Results: Panelists agreed that (1) this disease should be called “BIA-ALCL”; (2) late seromas occurring >1 year after breast implantation should be evaluated via ultrasound, and if a seroma is present, the fluid should be aspirated and sent for culture, cytology, flow cytometry, and cell block to an experienced hematopathologist; (3) surgical removal of the affected implant and capsule (as completely as possible) should occur, which is sufficient to eradicate capsule-confined BIA-ALCL; (4) surveillance should consist of clinical follow-up at least every 6 months for at least 5 years and breast ultrasound yearly for at least 2 years; and (5) BIA-ALCL is generally a biologically indolent disease with a good prognosis, unless it extends beyond the capsule and/or presents as a mass. They firmly disagreed with statements that chemotherapy and radiation therapy should be given to all patients with BIA-ALCL. Conclusions: Our assessment yielded consistent results on a number of key, incompletely addressed issues regarding BIA-ALCL, but additional research is needed to support these statement ratings and enhance our understanding of the biology, treatment, and outcomes associated with this disease. PMID:25674377

  6. NLRC5 elicits antitumor immunity by enhancing processing and presentation of tumor antigens to CD8(+) T lymphocytes.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, Galaxia M; Bobbala, Diwakar; Serrano, Daniel; Mayhue, Marian; Champagne, Audrey; Saucier, Caroline; Steimle, Viktor; Kufer, Thomas A; Menendez, Alfredo; Ramanathan, Sheela; Ilangumaran, Subburaj

    2016-06-01

    Cancers can escape immunesurveillance by diminishing the expression of MHC class-I molecules (MHC-I) and components of the antigen-processing machinery (APM). Developing new approaches to reverse these defects could boost the efforts to restore antitumor immunity. Recent studies have shown that the expression of MHC-I and antigen-processing molecules is transcriptionally regulated by NOD-like receptor CARD domain containing 5 (NLRC5). To investigate whether NLRC5 could be used to improve tumor immunogenicity, we established stable lines of B16-F10 melanoma cells expressing NLRC5 (B16-5), the T cell co-stimulatory molecule CD80 (B16-CD80) or both (B16-5/80). Cells harboring NLRC5 constitutively expressed MHC-I and LMP2, LMP7 and TAP1 genes of the APM. The B16-5 cells efficiently presented the melanoma antigenic peptide gp10025-33 to Pmel-1 TCR transgenic CD8(+) T cells and induced their proliferation. In the presence of CD80, B16-5 cells stimulated Pmel-1 cells even without the addition of gp100 peptide, indicating that NLRC5 facilitated the processing and presentation of endogenous tumor antigen. Upon subcutaneous implantation, B16-5 cells showed markedly reduced tumor growth in C57BL/6 hosts but not in immunodeficient hosts, indicating that the NLRC5-expressing tumor cells elicited antitumor immunity. Following intravenous injection, B16-5 and B16-5/80 cells formed fewer lung tumor foci compared to control cells. In mice depleted of CD8(+) T cells, B16-5 cells formed large subcutaneous and lung tumors. Finally, immunization with irradiated B16-5 cells conferred protection against challenge by parental B16 cells. Collectively, our findings indicate that NLRC5 could be exploited to restore tumor immunogenicity and to stimulate protective antitumor immunity. PMID:27471621

  7. NLRC5 elicits antitumor immunity by enhancing processing and presentation of tumor antigens to CD8+ T lymphocytes

    PubMed Central

    Rodriguez, Galaxia M.; Bobbala, Diwakar; Serrano, Daniel; Mayhue, Marian; Champagne, Audrey; Saucier, Caroline; Steimle, Viktor; Kufer, Thomas A.; Menendez, Alfredo; Ramanathan, Sheela; Ilangumaran, Subburaj

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Cancers can escape immunesurveillance by diminishing the expression of MHC class-I molecules (MHC-I) and components of the antigen-processing machinery (APM). Developing new approaches to reverse these defects could boost the efforts to restore antitumor immunity. Recent studies have shown that the expression of MHC-I and antigen-processing molecules is transcriptionally regulated by NOD-like receptor CARD domain containing 5 (NLRC5). To investigate whether NLRC5 could be used to improve tumor immunogenicity, we established stable lines of B16-F10 melanoma cells expressing NLRC5 (B16-5), the T cell co-stimulatory molecule CD80 (B16-CD80) or both (B16-5/80). Cells harboring NLRC5 constitutively expressed MHC-I and LMP2, LMP7 and TAP1 genes of the APM. The B16-5 cells efficiently presented the melanoma antigenic peptide gp10025–33 to Pmel-1 TCR transgenic CD8+ T cells and induced their proliferation. In the presence of CD80, B16-5 cells stimulated Pmel-1 cells even without the addition of gp100 peptide, indicating that NLRC5 facilitated the processing and presentation of endogenous tumor antigen. Upon subcutaneous implantation, B16-5 cells showed markedly reduced tumor growth in C57BL/6 hosts but not in immunodeficient hosts, indicating that the NLRC5-expressing tumor cells elicited antitumor immunity. Following intravenous injection, B16-5 and B16-5/80 cells formed fewer lung tumor foci compared to control cells. In mice depleted of CD8+ T cells, B16-5 cells formed large subcutaneous and lung tumors. Finally, immunization with irradiated B16-5 cells conferred protection against challenge by parental B16 cells. Collectively, our findings indicate that NLRC5 could be exploited to restore tumor immunogenicity and to stimulate protective antitumor immunity. PMID:27471621

  8. Size determines whether specialized expert processes are engaged for recognition of faces.

    PubMed

    Yang, Nan; Shafai, Fakhri; Oruc, Ipek

    2014-07-22

    Many influential models of face recognition postulate specialized expert processes that are engaged when viewing upright, own-race faces, as opposed to a general-purpose recognition route used for nonface objects and inverted or other-race faces. In contrast, others have argued that empirical differences do not stem from qualitatively distinct processing. We offer a potential resolution to this ongoing controversy. We hypothesize that faces engage specialized processes at large sizes only. To test this, we measured recognition efficiencies for a wide range of sizes. Upright face recognition efficiency increased with size. This was not due to better visibility of basic image features at large sizes. We ensured this by calculating efficiency relative to a specialized ideal observer unique to each individual that incorporated size-related changes in visibility and by measuring inverted efficiencies across the same range of face sizes. Inverted face recognition efficiencies did not change with size. A qualitative face inversion effect, defined as the ratio of relative upright and inverted efficiencies, showed a complete lack of inversion effects for small sizes up to 6°. In contrast, significant face inversion effects were found for all larger sizes. Size effects may stem from predominance of larger faces in the overall exposure to faces, which occur at closer viewing distances typical of social interaction. Our results offer a potential explanation for the contradictory findings in the literature regarding the special status of faces.

  9. Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

    DOEpatents

    Reifman, Jaques; Wei, Thomas Y. C.

    1995-01-01

    A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis is an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach.

  10. Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

    DOEpatents

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1995-08-15

    A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis of an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach. 9 figs.

  11. Examining the Stability of Experts' Clinical Case Processing: An Experimental Manipulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Bruin, Anique B. H.; Van De Wiel, Margaretha W. J.; Rikers, Remy M. J. P.; Schmidt, Henk G.

    2005-01-01

    The present study was undertaken to examine the hypothesis that the intermediate effect in clinical case recall is partly explained by experts' lower motivation to write down "everything" they remember when asked for free recall. Medical experts and students were presented with two clinical cases, which they had to read, diagnose, and recall.…

  12. GAIT-ER-AID: An Expert System for Analysis of Gait with Automatic Intelligent Pre-Processing of Data

    PubMed Central

    Bontrager, EL.; Perry, J.; Bogey, R.; Gronley, J.; Barnes, L.; Bekey, G.; Kim, JW.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes the architecture and applications of an expert system designed to identify the specific muscles responsible for a given dysfunctional gait pattern. The system consists of two parts: a data analysis expert system (DA/ES) and a gait pathology expert system (GP/ES). The DA/ES processes raw data on joint angles, foot-floor contact patterns and EMG's from relevant muscles and synthesizes them into a data frame for use by the GP/ES. Various aspects of the intelligent data pre-processing are described in detail, followed by a presentation of the GP/ES, including its structure, knowledge base, rule base, and inference engine. The inference process is clarified by careful analysis of an actual case, a patient with an equinus gait.

  13. Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) quality assurance (QA)/data accounting (DA) expert systems - Transition from prototypes to operational systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa

    1988-01-01

    The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historical records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

  14. Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) Quality Assurance (QA)/Data Accounting (DA) expert systems: Transition from prototypes to operational systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa

    1988-01-01

    The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historial records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

  15. Relationships between the Process Standards: Process Elicited through Letter Writing between Preservice Teachers and High School Mathematics Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kosko, Karl Wesley; Norton, Anderson

    2012-01-01

    The current body of literature suggests an interactive relationship between several of the process standards advocated by National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. Verbal and written mathematical communication has often been described as an alternative to typical mathematical representations (e.g., charts and graphs). Therefore, the…

  16. Integrated processing and analysis of hydrological data - not only for experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalicz, P.; Gribovszki, Z.

    2012-04-01

    The advent of the digital data logging results huge amount of hydrological time series from wide variety of hydrological phenomenon and water quality indicators. There are different sampling frequencies, irregular time steps, hand measured control data which are necessary treat in the same database. Some processes (e.g. the concentration of surface water) in small catchments and urban areas change quickly thus at this case for a rigorous study it is necessary to apply high frequency data sampling. Sometimes there is an error and the equidistant times series is broken. The error produced gap in the time series forms an obstacle for some type of calculations. There are many proprietary softwares process these data and gives solutions for the exercises. It can be found also open source solutions. Some years ago the open source R was chosen for analyzing data, which are measured in the Hidegvíz Valley experimental catchment. This system is an excellent environment to organize and visualize hydrological time series. The contributing package called zoo has good abilities to work with different temporal resolutions. There are also many sophisticated statistical functions (e.g. auto- and cross-correlation functions, spectral analysis, filters, smoothing algorithms, etc.). During the years some functions was developed for data import, semi-automatic data processing, visualizations and analyses. In the last year in the umbrella of a project brings up a demand for visualize time series from non-R-experts. An easy-to-use graphical user interface was developed to solve this problem instead of cumbersome import/export processes or introduction to R course. This integrated utility uses the integrated Tcl/Tk package and gives possibilities to mouse driven visualization.

  17. IPPEX (Inspection Process Planning EXpert): An automated planning system for dimensional inspection

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, C.W.

    1990-04-01

    This paper discusses recent accomplishments obtained from development efforts of a generative dimensional inspection planning system. This system, APEX (Inspection Process Planning EXpert), is a knowledge-based system, currently being developed for the dimensional inspection of piece parts. This prototype system applies artificial intelligence techniques and implements an advanced product definition modeling system. The APEX framework is based on a functional architecture designed for the purpose of producing CMM inspection plans, inspection part programs, and support information. The current APEX prototype system selects the appropriate CMM, identifies the measurable surfaces, suggests probing point determination, performs inspection work element planning, and creates an initial DMIS (Dimensional Measurement Interface Specification) part program, all for a specific workpiece. The following describes the APEX system, its functional activities, system architecture, product definition and tolerance representation, inspection features, inspection work elements, hierarchical inspection task planning approach, dimensional inspection techniques, part program creation, user interfaces formats, and other issues related to integrated inspection planning and part programming for CMMs. Finally, this paper describes a system that advances the development of automated inspection planning, product modelling systems with application accessible dimensions and tolerances, and standard dimensional inspection techniques and methodologies.

  18. Practice Guidance for Buprenorphine for the Treatment of Opioid Use Disorders: Results of an Expert Panel Process

    PubMed Central

    Farmer, Carrie M.; Lindsay, Dawn; Williams, Jessica; Ayers, Amanda; Schuster, James; Cilia, Alyssa; Flaherty, Michael T.; Mandell, Todd; Gordon, Adam J.; Stein, Bradley D.

    2015-01-01

    Background Although numbers of physicians credentialed to prescribe buprenorphine has increased over time, many credentialed physicians may be reluctant to treat individuals with opioid use disorders due to discomfort with prescribing buprenorphine. Though prescribing physicians are required to complete a training course, many have questions about buprenorphine and treatment guidelines have not been updated to reflect clinical experience in recent years. We report on an expert panel process to update and expand buprenorphine guidelines. Methods We identified candidate guidelines through expert opinion and a review of the literature and used a modified RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method to assess the validity of the candidate guidelines. An expert panel completed two rounds of rating, with a meeting to discuss the guidelines between the first and second rating. Results Through the rating process, expert panel members rated 90 candidate guideline statements across eight domains, including candidacy for buprenorphine treatment, dosing of buprenorphine, psychosocial counseling, and treatment of co-occurring depression and anxiety. A total of 65 guideline statements (72%) were rated as valid. Expert panel members had agreement in some areas, such as the treatment of co-occurring mental health problems, but disagreement in others, including the appropriate dosing of buprenorphine given patient complexities. Conclusions Through an expert panel process, we developed an updated and expanded set of buprenorphine treatment guidelines; this additional guidance may increase credentialed physicians’ comfort with prescribing buprenorphine to patients with opioid use disorders. Future efforts should focus on appropriate dosing guidance and ensuring that guidelines can be adapted to a variety of practice settings. PMID:25844527

  19. Architecture For The Optimization Of A Machining Process In Real Time Through Rule-Based Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serrano, Rafael; González, Luis Carlos; Martín, Francisco Jesús

    2009-11-01

    Under the project SENSOR-IA which has had financial funding from the Order of Incentives to the Regional Technology Centers of the Counsil of Innovation, Science and Enterprise of Andalusia, an architecture for the optimization of a machining process in real time through rule-based expert system has been developed. The architecture consists of an acquisition system and sensor data processing engine (SATD) from an expert system (SE) rule-based which communicates with the SATD. The SE has been designed as an inference engine with an algorithm for effective action, using a modus ponens rule model of goal-oriented rules.The pilot test demonstrated that it is possible to govern in real time the machining process based on rules contained in a SE. The tests have been done with approximated rules. Future work includes an exhaustive collection of data with different tool materials and geometries in a database to extract more precise rules.

  20. Documenting the Use of Expert Scientific Reasoning Processes by High School Physics Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephens, A. Lynn; Clement, John J.

    2010-01-01

    We describe a methodology for identifying evidence for the use of three types of scientific reasoning. In two case studies of high school physics classes, we used this methodology to identify multiple instances of students using analogies, extreme cases, and Gedanken experiments. Previous case studies of expert scientists have indicated that these…

  1. Winning the game: brain processes in expert, young elite and amateur table tennis players

    PubMed Central

    Wolf, Sebastian; Brölz, Ellen; Scholz, David; Ramos-Murguialday, Ander; Keune, Philipp M.; Hautzinger, Martin; Birbaumer, Niels; Strehl, Ute

    2014-01-01

    This study tested two hypotheses: (1) compared with amateurs and young elite, expert table tennis players are characterized by enhanced cortical activation in the motor and fronto-parietal cortex during motor imagery in response to table tennis videos; (2) in elite athletes, world rank points are associated with stronger cortical activation. To this aim, electroencephalographic data were recorded in 14 expert, 15 amateur and 15 young elite right-handed table tennis players. All subjects watched videos of a serve and imagined themselves responding with a specific table tennis stroke. With reference to a baseline period, power decrease/increase of the sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) during the pretask- and task period indexed the cortical activation/deactivation (event-related desynchronization/synchronization, ERD/ERS). Regarding hypothesis (1), 8–10 Hz SMR ERD was stronger in elite athletes than in amateurs with an intermediate ERD in young elite athletes in the motor cortex. Regarding hypothesis (2), there was no correlation between ERD/ERS in the motor cortex and world rank points in elite experts, but a weaker ERD in the fronto-parietal cortex was associated with higher world rank points. These results suggest that motor skill in table tennis is associated with focused excitability of the motor cortex during reaction, movement planning and execution with high attentional demands. Among elite experts, less activation of the fronto-parietal attention network may be necessary to become a world champion. PMID:25386126

  2. Combining analytical hierarchy process and agglomerative hierarchical clustering in search of expert consensus in green corridors development management.

    PubMed

    Shapira, Aviad; Shoshany, Maxim; Nir-Goldenberg, Sigal

    2013-07-01

    Environmental management and planning are instrumental in resolving conflicts arising between societal needs for economic development on the one hand and for open green landscapes on the other hand. Allocating green corridors between fragmented core green areas may provide a partial solution to these conflicts. Decisions regarding green corridor development require the assessment of alternative allocations based on multiple criteria evaluations. Analytical Hierarchy Process provides a methodology for both a structured and consistent extraction of such evaluations and for the search for consensus among experts regarding weights assigned to the different criteria. Implementing this methodology using 15 Israeli experts-landscape architects, regional planners, and geographers-revealed inherent differences in expert opinions in this field beyond professional divisions. The use of Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering allowed to identify clusters representing common decisions regarding criterion weights. Aggregating the evaluations of these clusters revealed an important dichotomy between a pragmatist approach that emphasizes the weight of statutory criteria and an ecological approach that emphasizes the role of the natural conditions in allocating green landscape corridors. PMID:23674241

  3. Optimizing Instructional Designer--Subject Matter Expert Communication in the Design and Development of Multimedia Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keppell, Mike

    2001-01-01

    Summarizes a study which explored the development, trial, and implementation of the Content Production Process (CPP) which was designed to assist instructional designers in eliciting and conceptualizing unfamiliar content from subject matter experts. Highlights include advance organizers, schema theory, consultation practices, knowledge…

  4. Becoming a Lunari or Taiyo expert: learned attention to parts drives holistic processing of faces.

    PubMed

    Chua, Kao-Wei; Richler, Jennifer J; Gauthier, Isabel

    2014-06-01

    Faces are processed holistically, but the locus of holistic processing remains unclear. We created two novel races of faces (Lunaris and Taiyos) to study how experience with face parts influences holistic processing. In Experiment 1, subjects individuated Lunaris wherein the top, bottom, or both face halves contained diagnostic information. Subjects who learned to attend to face parts exhibited no holistic processing. This suggests that individuation only leads to holistic processing when the whole face is attended. In Experiment 2, subjects individuated both Lunaris and Taiyos, with diagnostic information in complementary face halves of the two races. Holistic processing was measured with composites made of either diagnostic or nondiagnostic face parts. Holistic processing was only observed for composites made from diagnostic face parts, demonstrating that holistic processing can occur for diagnostic face parts that were never seen together. These results suggest that holistic processing is an expression of learned attention to diagnostic face parts.

  5. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... CFR PART 191 DISPOSAL REGULATIONS Compliance Certification and Re-certification General Requirements... expert judgment elicitation comports with the level of knowledge required by the questions or issues... judgment elicitation comports with the level and variety of knowledge required by the questions or...

  6. Lateralization of the frontal lobe functions elicited by a cognitive bias task is a fundamental process. Lesion study.

    PubMed

    Aoyagi, Kakurou; Aihara, Masao; Goldberg, Elkhonon; Nakazawa, Shinpei

    2005-09-01

    function elicited by mCBT is fundamental and independent of language lateralization, rather than secondary to it. Furthermore, these findings also indicate that the timetable for the development of lateralized frontal lobe functions depends upon biologic factors. PMID:16122629

  7. CABPRO: An expert system for process planning multiwire cables. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Schaefer, R.M.

    1994-04-01

    CABPRO (CABle PROcessor) is a set of computer programs using Artificial Intelligence programming to automatically generate process plans and work instructions in support of the manufacture of multiwire cables. Development of these programs required selecting appropriate hardware and software tools, defining engineering process planning activities, acquiring and representing process planning knowledge, and creating a prototype system. A successful prototype was developed and demonstrated.

  8. PRODIAG: Combined expert system/neural network for process fault diagnosis. Volume 1, Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.; Vitela, J.E.

    1995-09-01

    The function of the PRODIAG code is to diagnose on-line the root cause of a thermal-hydraulic (T-H) system transient with trace back to the identification of the malfunctioning component using the T-H instrumentation signals exclusively. The code methodology is based on the Al techniques of automated reasoning/expert systems (ES) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The research and development objective is to develop a generic code methodology which would be plant- and T-H-system-independent. For the ES part the only plant or T-H system specific code requirements would be implemented through input only and at that only through a Piping and Instrumentation Diagram (PID) database. For the ANN part the only plant or T-H system specific code requirements would be through the ANN training data for normal component characteristics and the same PID database information. PRODIAG would, therefore, be generic and portable from T-H system to T-H system and from plant to plant without requiring any code-related modifications except for the PID database and the ANN training with the normal component characteristics. This would give PRODIAG the generic feature which numerical simulation plant codes such as TRAC or RELAP5 have. As the code is applied to different plants and different T-H systems, only the connectivity information, the operating conditions and the normal component characteristics are changed, and the changes are made entirely through input. Verification and validation of PRODIAG would, be T-H system independent and would be performed only ``once``.

  9. Unconsciously elicited perceptual prior

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Raymond; Baria, Alexis T.; Flounders, Matthew W.; He, Biyu J.

    2016-01-01

    Increasing evidence over the past decade suggests that vision is not simply a passive, feed-forward process in which cortical areas relay progressively more abstract information to those higher up in the visual hierarchy, but rather an inferential process with top-down processes actively guiding and shaping perception. However, one major question that persists is whether such processes can be influenced by unconsciously perceived stimuli. Recent psychophysics and neuroimaging studies have revealed that while consciously perceived stimuli elicit stronger responses in higher visual and frontoparietal areas than those that fail to reach conscious awareness, the latter can still drive high-level brain and behavioral responses. We investigated whether unconscious processing of a masked natural image could facilitate subsequent conscious recognition of its degraded counterpart (a black-and-white “Mooney” image) presented many seconds later. We found that this is indeed the case, suggesting that conscious vision may be influenced by priors established by unconscious processing of a fleeting image. PMID:27595010

  10. Expert Biogeographers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bednarski, Marsha

    2006-01-01

    This article describes an alternative way of teaching about biomes by having students become expert biogeographers. In order to become experts students need to first find out what a biogeographer does. Doing an online search lets students find out for themselves what the responsibilities are of people who work in this field. A good place to visit…

  11. Combining Analytical Hierarchy Process and Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering in Search of Expert Consensus in Green Corridors Development Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapira, Aviad; Shoshany, Maxim; Nir-Goldenberg, Sigal

    2013-07-01

    Environmental management and planning are instrumental in resolving conflicts arising between societal needs for economic development on the one hand and for open green landscapes on the other hand. Allocating green corridors between fragmented core green areas may provide a partial solution to these conflicts. Decisions regarding green corridor development require the assessment of alternative allocations based on multiple criteria evaluations. Analytical Hierarchy Process provides a methodology for both a structured and consistent extraction of such evaluations and for the search for consensus among experts regarding weights assigned to the different criteria. Implementing this methodology using 15 Israeli experts—landscape architects, regional planners, and geographers—revealed inherent differences in expert opinions in this field beyond professional divisions. The use of Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering allowed to identify clusters representing common decisions regarding criterion weights. Aggregating the evaluations of these clusters revealed an important dichotomy between a pragmatist approach that emphasizes the weight of statutory criteria and an ecological approach that emphasizes the role of the natural conditions in allocating green landscape corridors.

  12. Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon Monica; Reveley, Mary S.; Luxhoj, James T.

    2012-01-01

    Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

  13. Development of the Paris definition of early Crohn's disease for disease-modification trials: results of an international expert opinion process.

    PubMed

    Peyrin-Biroulet, Laurent; Billioud, Vincent; D'Haens, Geert; Panaccione, Remo; Feagan, Brian; Panés, Julian; Danese, Silvio; Schreiber, Stefan; Ogata, Haruhiko; Hibi, Toshifumi; Higgins, Peter D R; Beaugerie, Laurent; Chowers, Yehuda; Louis, Edouard; Steinwurz, Flávio; Reinisch, Walter; Rutgeerts, Paul; Colombel, Jean-Frédéric; Travis, Simon; Sandborn, William J

    2012-12-01

    We report the findings and outputs of an international expert opinion process to develop a definition of early Crohn's disease (CD) that could be used in future disease-modification trials. Nineteen experts on inflammatory bowel diseases held an international expert opinion meeting to discuss and agree on a definition for early CD to be used in disease-modification trials. The process included literature searches for the relevant basic-science and clinical evidence. A published preliminary definition of early CD was used as the basis for development of a proposed definition that was discussed at the expert opinion meeting. The participants then derived a final definition, based on best current knowledge, that it is hoped will be of practical use in disease-modification trials in CD. PMID:23211844

  14. The DELPHI expert process of the German umbrella project AUGE as basis for recommendations to CO2 storage in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pilz, Peter; Schoebel, Birgit; Liebscher, Axel

    2016-04-01

    Within the GEOTECHNOLOGIEN funding scheme for geological CO2 storage by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) in Germany 33 projects (135 subprojects) have been funded with a total budget of 58 Mio € (excluding industry funds) from 2005 to 2014. In 2012, the German parliament passed the transposition of the EU CCS Directive 2009/31/EG into the national "Carbon Dioxide Storage Law" (KSpG). Annex 1 of the KSpG provides a description of criteria for the characterization and assessment of a potential CO2 storage site. Annex 2 describes the expected monitoring system of a CO2 storage site. The criteria given in the appendices are of general nature, which reflects (1) that the CO2 storage technology is still being developed and (2) that site specific aspects needs to be considered. In 2012 an umbrella project called AUGE has been launched in order to compile and summarize the results of the GEOTECHNOLOGIEN projects to underpin the two Annexes scientifically. By integration of the individual project results AUGE aims at derive recommendations for the review and implementation of the KSpG. The recommendations shall be drafted based on a common ground of science, public authorities and industry. Therefore, the AUGE project includes a Delphi expert process as an essential part. It is realized in cooperation with the company COMPARE Consulting, Göppingen. The implementation of the Delphi-Process is organized in three steps: • After the technical preparation of a standardized questionnaire (2014/2015) it was sent to 129 experts from science, industry and public authorities in Germany. After a few weeks of consideration time, 40 persons (30 %) had decided to participate actively in this inquiry. • Following the results of the first interrogation campaign, the second survey campaign started at the end of 2015. The same list of questions was used, complemented with the results of the first inquiry campaign. The intention is reduce the variance of the

  15. Ludic Elicitation: Using Games for Knowledge Elicitation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cao, Yan

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge elicitation from human beings is important for many fields, such as decision support systems, risk communication, and customer preference studying. Traditional approaches include observations, questionnaires, structured and semi-structured interviews, and group discussions. Many publications have been studying different techniques for a…

  16. Expert System Development in the Classroom: Processes and Outcomes. Technical Report 91-1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wideman, Herbert H.; Owston, Ronald D.

    This study examined cognitive processes and outcomes associated with student knowledge base development. Sixty-nine students from two grade 8 classes were randomly assigned to one of three groups: a knowledge base development (KBD) group, a problem-solving software group, and a control group. Those in the KBD group received relevant instruction…

  17. The Role of Intuition in the Creative Process of Expert Chefs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stierand, Marc; Dörfler, Viktor

    2016-01-01

    Scholars studying intuition are frequently focusing on decision takers and to this day, they conceptualize intuition as a form of judgment. More recently, the notion of intuition in creativity has been challenged by the argument that although the creative process may contain intuitive judgments, any creative idea or solution is essentially the…

  18. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, A. C. H.

    1994-01-01

    Reports on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Results revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are…

  19. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Meiosis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    The results of a study of the meiosis models utilized by individuals at varying levels of expertise while reasoning about the process of meiosis are presented. Based on these results, the issues of sources of misconceptions/difficulties and the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis are discussed. Five individuals from each of three…

  20. An expert system supporting decision making process for sustainable groundwater use in main alluvial aquifers in Slovenia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Souvent, Petra; Vižintin, Goran; Celarc, Sašo; Čenčur Curk, Barbara

    2016-04-01

    The expert decision support system for groundwater management in the shallow alluvial aquifers was developed to assist the decision makers to quantify available groundwater for a given alluvial aquifer and provide additional information about quantity of groundwater available for water rights licensing. The system links numerical groundwater flow models with the water permits and concessions databases in a complex decision support system. Six regional stand-alone groundwater models are used in the process of the assessment of groundwater quantitative status as well as for assessing availability of groundwater resources during the period of maximum water consumption and minimum groundwater recharge. Model runs have been realized in a steady state and are calibrated to a medium-low hydrological field conditions, because water quantities for all already granted as well as to-be granted water rights have to be ensured in any time for several years. The major goal of the expert decision support system is therefore to provide control mechanisms in order to verify the water rights licensing for the sustainable use of groundwater resources. The system enables that the water quantity data from water permits and concessions in conjunction with the results of numerical groundwater modeling are used in the managing process of granting new water rights to users in terms of their long-term access to groundwater (sufficient quantity of groundwater) and in relation to the water rights of other users (co-impact of groundwater pumping). Also, groundwater access must be managed in such a way that it does not cause unacceptable local impacts (pumping must not lower the water level for more than 2/3 of water body in the medium-low hydrological conditions).

  1. A Type-2 Fuzzy Image Processing Expert System for Diagnosing Brain Tumors.

    PubMed

    Zarinbal, M; Fazel Zarandi, M H; Turksen, I B; Izadi, M

    2015-10-01

    The focus of this paper is diagnosing and differentiating Astrocytomas in MRI scans by developing an interval Type-2 fuzzy automated tumor detection system. This system consists of three modules: working memory, knowledge base, and inference engine. An image processing method with three steps of preprocessing, segmentation and feature extraction, and approximate reasoning is used in inference engine module to enhance the quality of MRI scans, segment them into desired regions, extract the required features, and finally diagnose and differentiate Astrocytomas. However, brain tumors have different characteristics in different planes, so considering one plane of patient's MRI scan may cause inaccurate results. Therefore, in the developed system, several consecutive planes are processed. The performance of this system is evaluated using 95 MRI scans and the results show good improvement in diagnosing and differentiating Astrocytomas.

  2. Understanding a basic biological process: Expert and novice models of meiosis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    Central to secondary and college-level biology instruction is the development of student understanding of a number of subcellular processes. Yet some of the most crucial are consistently cited as the most difficult components of biology to learn. Among these is meiosis. In this article I report on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Detailed characterization of individual meiosis models and comparison among models revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are categorized according to type and level of expertise. These results are suggestive of both sources of various misunderstandings and factors that might contribute to the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis. Each of these is addressed in relation to their respective implications for instruction.

  3. Integration Of The BUZZ Image Processing System With An Expert System For Vehicle Navigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duggleby, William G.

    1988-03-01

    Modern manufacturing environments are using an increasing number of automated guided vehicles. While these robots can improve productivity, they are restricted to following preset paths marked by paint or electrical wires. A need exists for a robot cart which can determine its own path given knowledge of its surroundings and its goals. This type of robot could determine the shortest path to accomplish its goals, and it could use heuristic reasoning to determine how to get around obstacles which would normally block a painted path. Image processing techniques combined with knowledge-based reasoning can provide a solution to this problem. This paper discusses a system which acquires video images of a hallway, segments those images using image processing algorithms, and determines the classification of objects and the appropriate path for a cart using heuristic reasoning. The images are segmented using basic knowledge of the surroundings. Heuristics in the form of production rules are used to determine the classification for each segment and the corresponding confidence. The rules were developed from an analysis of the basic features common to object classes in the image database.

  4. An instructional design process based on expert knowledge for teaching students how mechanisms are explained.

    PubMed

    Trujillo, Caleb M; Anderson, Trevor R; Pelaez, Nancy J

    2016-06-01

    In biology and physiology courses, students face many difficulties when learning to explain mechanisms, a topic that is demanding due to the immense complexity and abstract nature of molecular and cellular mechanisms. To overcome these difficulties, we asked the following question: how does an instructor transform their understanding of biological mechanisms and other difficult-to-learn topics so that students can comprehend them? To address this question, we first reviewed a model of the components used by biologists to explain molecular and cellular mechanisms: the MACH model, with the components of methods (M), analogies (A), context (C), and how (H). Next, instructional materials were developed and the teaching activities were piloted with a physical MACH model. Students who used the MACH model to guide their explanations of mechanisms exhibited both improvements and some new difficulties. Third, a series of design-based research cycles was applied to bring the activities with an improved physical MACH model into biology and biochemistry courses. Finally, a useful rubric was developed to address prevalent student difficulties. Here, we present, for physiology and biology instructors, the knowledge and resources for explaining molecular and cellular mechanisms in undergraduate courses with an instructional design process aimed at realizing pedagogical content knowledge for teaching. Our four-stage process could be adapted to advance instruction with a range of models in the life sciences.

  5. Expert Seeker

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fernandez, Becerra

    2003-01-01

    Expert Seeker is a computer program of the knowledge-management-system (KMS) type that falls within the category of expertise-locator systems. The main goal of the KMS system implemented by Expert Seeker is to organize and distribute knowledge of who are the domain experts within and without a given institution, company, or other organization. The intent in developing this KMS was to enable the re-use of organizational knowledge and provide a methodology for querying existing information (including structured, semistructured, and unstructured information) in a way that could help identify organizational experts. More specifically, Expert Seeker was developed to make it possible, by use of an intranet, to do any or all of the following: Assist an employee in identifying who has the skills needed for specific projects and to determine whether the experts so identified are available. Assist managers in identifying employees who may need training opportunities. Assist managers in determining what expertise is lost when employees retire or otherwise leave. Facilitate the development of new ways of identifying opportunities for innovation and minimization of duplicated efforts. Assist employees in achieving competitive advantages through the application of knowledge-management concepts and related systems. Assist external organizations in requesting speakers for specific engagements or determining from whom they might be able to request help via electronic mail. Help foster an environment of collaboration for rapid development in today's environment, in which it is increasingly necessary to assemble teams of experts from government, universities, research laboratories, and industries, to quickly solve problems anytime, anywhere. Make experts more visible. Provide a central repository of information about employees, including information that, heretofore, has typically not been captured by the human-resources systems (e.g., information about past projects, patents, or

  6. "Getting the Point" of Literature: Relations between Processing and Interpretation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burkett, Candice; Goldman, Susan R.

    2016-01-01

    Comparisons of literary experts and novices indicate that experts engage in interpretive processes to "get the point" during their reading of literary texts but novices do not. In two studies the reading and interpretive processes of literary novices (undergraduates with no formal training in literature study) were elicited through…

  7. Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Perkins, David M.; Aspinall, Willy P.; Kiremidjian, Anne S.

    2014-01-01

    The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke's approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke's approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments couple with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The performance-based scoring system reflects the combined measure of an expert's informativeness about variables in the problem are under consideration, and their ability to enumerate, in a statistically accurate way through expressing their true beliefs, the quantitative uncertainties associated with their assessments. We summarize the findings of an expert elicitation workshop in which a dozen earthquake-engineering professionals from around the world were engaged to estimate seismic collapse fragility for generic construction types. Development of seismic collapse fragility-functions was accomplished by combining their judgments using weights derived from Cooke's method. Although substantial effort was needed to elicit the inputs of these experts successfully, we anticipate that the elicitation strategy described here will gain momentum in a wide variety of earthquake seismology and engineering hazard and risk analyses where physical model and data limitations are inherent and objective professional judgment can fill gaps.

  8. The amastigote forms of Leishmania are experts at exploiting host cell processes to establish infection and persist.

    PubMed

    Kima, Peter E

    2007-08-01

    Leishmania are dimorphic protozoan parasites that live as flagellated forms in the gut of their sandfly vector and as aflagellated forms in their mammalian hosts. Although both parasite forms can infect macrophages and dendritic cells, they elicit distinct responses from mammalian cells. Amastigotes are the parasites forms that persist in the infected host; they infect cells recruited to lesions and disseminate the infection to secondary sites. In this review I discuss studies that have investigated the mechanisms that Leishmania amastigotes employ to harness the host cell's response to infection. It should be acknowledged that our understanding of the mechanisms deployed by Leishmania amastigotes to modulate the host cell's response to infection is still rudimentary. Nonetheless, the results show that amastigote interactions with mammalian cells promote the production of anti-inflammatory cytokines such as IL-10 and TGF-beta while suppressing the production of IL-12, superoxide and nitric oxide. An underlying issue that is considered is how these parasites that reside in sequestered vacuolar compartments target host cell processes in the cytosol or the nucleus; does this occur through the release of parasite molecules from parasitophorous vacuoles or by engaging and sustaining signalling pathways throughout the course of infection?

  9. Oil palm fresh fruit bunch ripeness classification based on rule- based expert system of ROI image processing technique results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfatni, M. S. M.; Shariff, A. R. M.; Abdullah, M. Z.; Marhaban, M. H.; Shafie, S. B.; Bamiruddin, M. D.; Saaed, O. M. B.

    2014-06-01

    There is a processing need for a fast, easy and accurate classification system for oil palm fruit ripeness. Such a system will be invaluable to farmers and plantation managers who need to sell their oil palm fresh fruit bunch (FFB) for the mill as this will avoid disputes. In this paper,a new approach was developed under the name of expert rules-based systembased on the image processing techniques results of thethree different oil palm FFB region of interests (ROIs), namely; ROI1 (300x300 pixels), ROI2 (50x50 pixels) and ROI3 (100x100 pixels). The results show that the best rule-based ROIs for statistical colour feature extraction with k-nearest neighbors (KNN) classifier at 94% were chosen as well as the ROIs that indicated results higher than the rule-based outcome, such as the ROIs of statistical colour feature extraction with artificial neural network (ANN) classifier at 94%, were selected for further FFB ripeness inspection system.

  10. Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

    1994-01-01

    Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

  11. Beyond the core face-processing network: Intracerebral stimulation of a face-selective area in the right anterior fusiform gyrus elicits transient prosopagnosia.

    PubMed

    Jonas, Jacques; Rossion, Bruno; Brissart, Hélène; Frismand, Solène; Jacques, Corentin; Hossu, Gabriela; Colnat-Coulbois, Sophie; Vespignani, Hervé; Vignal, Jean-Pierre; Maillard, Louis

    2015-11-01

    According to neuropsychological evidence, a distributed network of regions of the ventral visual pathway - from the lateral occipital cortex to the temporal pole - supports face recognition. However, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have generally confined ventral face-selective areas to the posterior section of the occipito-temporal cortex, i.e., the inferior occipital gyrus occipital face area (OFA) and the posterior and middle fusiform gyrus fusiform face area (FFA). There is recent evidence that intracranial electrical stimulation of these areas in the right hemisphere elicits face matching and recognition impairments (i.e., prosopagnosia) as well as perceptual face distortions. Here we report a case of transient inability to recognize faces following electrical stimulation of the right anterior fusiform gyrus, in a region located anteriorly to the FFA. There was no perceptual face distortion reported during stimulation. Although no fMRI face-selective responses were found in this region due to a severe signal drop-out as in previous studies, intracerebral face-selective event-related potentials and gamma range electrophysiological responses were found at the critical site of stimulation. These results point to a causal role in face recognition of the right anterior fusiform gyrus and more generally of face-selective areas located beyond the "core" face-processing network in the right ventral temporal cortex. It also illustrates the diagnostic value of intracerebral electrophysiological recordings and stimulation in understanding the neural basis of face recognition and visual recognition in general.

  12. Beyond the core face-processing network: Intracerebral stimulation of a face-selective area in the right anterior fusiform gyrus elicits transient prosopagnosia.

    PubMed

    Jonas, Jacques; Rossion, Bruno; Brissart, Hélène; Frismand, Solène; Jacques, Corentin; Hossu, Gabriela; Colnat-Coulbois, Sophie; Vespignani, Hervé; Vignal, Jean-Pierre; Maillard, Louis

    2015-11-01

    According to neuropsychological evidence, a distributed network of regions of the ventral visual pathway - from the lateral occipital cortex to the temporal pole - supports face recognition. However, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have generally confined ventral face-selective areas to the posterior section of the occipito-temporal cortex, i.e., the inferior occipital gyrus occipital face area (OFA) and the posterior and middle fusiform gyrus fusiform face area (FFA). There is recent evidence that intracranial electrical stimulation of these areas in the right hemisphere elicits face matching and recognition impairments (i.e., prosopagnosia) as well as perceptual face distortions. Here we report a case of transient inability to recognize faces following electrical stimulation of the right anterior fusiform gyrus, in a region located anteriorly to the FFA. There was no perceptual face distortion reported during stimulation. Although no fMRI face-selective responses were found in this region due to a severe signal drop-out as in previous studies, intracerebral face-selective event-related potentials and gamma range electrophysiological responses were found at the critical site of stimulation. These results point to a causal role in face recognition of the right anterior fusiform gyrus and more generally of face-selective areas located beyond the "core" face-processing network in the right ventral temporal cortex. It also illustrates the diagnostic value of intracerebral electrophysiological recordings and stimulation in understanding the neural basis of face recognition and visual recognition in general. PMID:26143305

  13. Expert AIV: Study and Prototyping of an Expert System, To Support the Conceptual AIV Phases Of Space Programs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrina, G.; Basso, V.; Saitta, L.

    2004-08-01

    The effort in optimising the AIV process has been mainly focused in the recent years on the standardisation of approaches and on the application of new methodologies. But the earlier the intervention, the greater the benefits in terms of cost and schedule. Early phases of AIV process relied up to now on standards that need to be tailored through company and personal expertise. A study has then been conducted in order to exploit the possibility to develop an expert system helping in making choices in the early, conceptual phase of Assembly, Integration and Verification, namely the Model Philosophy and the test definition. The work focused on a hybrid approach, allowing interaction between historical data and human expertise. The expert system that has been prototyped exploits both information elicited from domain experts and results of a Data Mining activity on the existent data bases of completed projects verification data. The Data Mining algorithms allow the extraction of past experience resident on ESA/ MATD data base, which contains information in the form of statistical summaries, costs, frequencies of on-ground and in flight failures. Finding non-trivial associations could then be utilised by the experts to manage new decisions in a controlled way (Standards driven) at the beginning or during the AIV Process Moreover, the Expert AIV could allow compilation of a set of feasible AIV schedules to support further programmatic-driven choices.

  14. Annotation methods to develop and evaluate an expert system based on natural language processing in electronic medical records.

    PubMed

    Gicquel, Quentin; Tvardik, Nastassia; Bouvry, Côme; Kergourlay, Ivan; Bittar, André; Segond, Frédérique; Darmoni, Stefan; Metzger, Marie-Hélène

    2015-01-01

    The objective of the SYNODOS collaborative project was to develop a generic IT solution, combining a medical terminology server, a semantic analyser and a knowledge base. The goal of the project was to generate meaningful epidemiological data for various medical domains from the textual content of French medical records. In the context of this project, we built a care pathway oriented conceptual model and corresponding annotation method to develop and evaluate an expert system's knowledge base. The annotation method is based on a semi-automatic process, using a software application (MedIndex). This application exchanges with a cross-lingual multi-termino-ontology portal. The annotator selects the most appropriate medical code proposed for the medical concept in question by the multi-termino-ontology portal and temporally labels the medical concept according to the course of the medical event. This choice of conceptual model and annotation method aims to create a generic database of facts for the secondary use of electronic health records data.

  15. Rule based processing of the CD4000, CD3200 and CD Sapphire analyser output using the Cerner Discern Expert Module.

    PubMed

    Burgess, P; Robin, H; Langshaw, M; Kershaw, G; Pathiraja, R; Yuen, S; Coad, C; Xiros, N; Mansy, G; Coleman, R; Brown, R; Gibson, J; Holman, R; Hubbard, J; Wick, V; Lammers, M; Johnson, R; Huffman, K; Bell, J; Ibrahim, A; Estepa, F; Lovegrove, J; Joshua, D

    2009-12-01

    The latest version of our Laboratory Information System haematology laboratory expert system that handles the output of Abbott Cell-Dyn Sapphires, CD4000s and a CD3200 full blood count analyser in three high-volume haematology laboratories is described. The three hospital laboratories use Cerner Millennium Version 2007.02 software and the expert system uses Cerner Millennium Discern Expert rules and some small Cerner Command Language in-house programs. The entire expert system is totally integrated with the area-wide database and has been built and maintained by haematology staff members, as has the haematology database. Using patient demographic data, analyser numeric results, analyser error and morphology flags and previous results for the patient, this expert system decides whether to validate the main full blood count indices and white cell differential, or if the analyser results warrant further operator intervention/investigation before verifying, whether a blood film is required for microscopic review and if abnormal results require phoning to the staff treating the patient. The principles of this expert system can be generalized to different haematology analysers and haematology laboratories that have different workflows and different software. PMID:18691345

  16. Rule based processing of the CD4000, CD3200 and CD Sapphire analyser output using the Cerner Discern Expert Module.

    PubMed

    Burgess, P; Robin, H; Langshaw, M; Kershaw, G; Pathiraja, R; Yuen, S; Coad, C; Xiros, N; Mansy, G; Coleman, R; Brown, R; Gibson, J; Holman, R; Hubbard, J; Wick, V; Lammers, M; Johnson, R; Huffman, K; Bell, J; Ibrahim, A; Estepa, F; Lovegrove, J; Joshua, D

    2009-12-01

    The latest version of our Laboratory Information System haematology laboratory expert system that handles the output of Abbott Cell-Dyn Sapphires, CD4000s and a CD3200 full blood count analyser in three high-volume haematology laboratories is described. The three hospital laboratories use Cerner Millennium Version 2007.02 software and the expert system uses Cerner Millennium Discern Expert rules and some small Cerner Command Language in-house programs. The entire expert system is totally integrated with the area-wide database and has been built and maintained by haematology staff members, as has the haematology database. Using patient demographic data, analyser numeric results, analyser error and morphology flags and previous results for the patient, this expert system decides whether to validate the main full blood count indices and white cell differential, or if the analyser results warrant further operator intervention/investigation before verifying, whether a blood film is required for microscopic review and if abnormal results require phoning to the staff treating the patient. The principles of this expert system can be generalized to different haematology analysers and haematology laboratories that have different workflows and different software.

  17. The Effects of Word Processing Software on User Satisfaction: An Empirical Study of Micro, Mini, and Mainframe Computers Using an Interactive Artificial Intelligence Expert-System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rushinek, Avi; Rushinek, Sara

    1984-01-01

    Describes results of a system rating study in which users responded to WPS (word processing software) questions. Study objectives were data collection and evaluation of variables; statistical quantification of WPS's contribution (along with other variables) to user satisfaction; design of an expert system to evaluate WPS; and database update and…

  18. Consensus standards for the process of cancer care: a modified expert panel method applied to head and neck cancer. South and West Expert Tumour Panel for Head and Neck Cancer.

    PubMed Central

    Birchall, M. A.

    1998-01-01

    There are many pressures to improve the standard of care delivered to cancer patients, including the reforms subsequent to the Calman-Hine report. The establishment of standards is a prerequisite for audit, benchmarking and certification of cancer centres and units. Randomized trials of head and neck cancer are uncommon, and other forms of evidence often conflicting. In the south and west of England, a multidisciplinary expert panel consensus method has been applied to the development of standards. A panel representative of specialties involved in the process of care at all three levels, plus social medicine and lay members, was constructed. A model for the process of care was developed consisting of activity areas. For each activity, a near exhaustive list of tasks and standards was established. A three-iteration method with statistical group response was then used to refine the standards. The same method was also applied to the production of a minimum data set for registration, recording and audit. The resulting standards will be regularly reviewed. We have developed a model of the care process, and an expert panel methodology that is applicable to a wide range of problems in clinical oncology. PMID:9667669

  19. Expert judgment and expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Mumpower, J.; Phillips, L.D.; Renn, O.; Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1987-01-01

    This volume collects researchers from the fields of psychology, decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The purposes were to assess similarities, differences, and complementarities among the three approaches to the study of expert judgment; to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses; and to propose profitable linkages between them. Each of the papers in the present volume is directed toward one or more of these goals.

  20. Eliciting Sound Memories.

    PubMed

    Harris, Anna

    2015-11-01

    Sensory experiences are often considered triggers of memory, most famously a little French cake dipped in lime blossom tea. Sense memory can also be evoked in public history research through techniques of elicitation. In this article I reflect on different social science methods for eliciting sound memories such as the use of sonic prompts, emplaced interviewing, and sound walks. I include examples from my research on medical listening. The article considers the relevance of this work for the conduct of oral histories, arguing that such methods "break the frame," allowing room for collaborative research connections and insights into the otherwise unarticulatable.

  1. Expert judgments about transient climate response to alternative future trajectories of radiative forcing

    PubMed Central

    Zickfeld, Kirsten; Morgan, M. Granger; Frame, David J.; Keith, David W.

    2010-01-01

    There is uncertainty about the response of the climate system to future trajectories of radiative forcing. To quantify this uncertainty we conducted face-to-face interviews with 14 leading climate scientists, using formal methods of expert elicitation. We structured the interviews around three scenarios of radiative forcing stabilizing at different levels. All experts ranked “cloud radiative feedbacks” as contributing most to their uncertainty about future global mean temperature change, irrespective of the specified level of radiative forcing. The experts disagreed about the relative contribution of other physical processes to their uncertainty about future temperature change. For a forcing trajectory that stabilized at 7 Wm-2 in 2200, 13 of the 14 experts judged the probability that the climate system would undergo, or be irrevocably committed to, a “basic state change” as ≥0.5. The width and median values of the probability distributions elicited from the different experts for future global mean temperature change under the specified forcing trajectories vary considerably. Even for a moderate increase in forcing by the year 2050, the medians of the elicited distributions of temperature change relative to 2000 range from 0.8–1.8 °C, and some of the interquartile ranges do not overlap. Ten of the 14 experts estimated that the probability that equilibrium climate sensitivity exceeds 4.5 °C is > 0.17, our interpretation of the upper limit of the “likely” range given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Finally, most experts anticipated that over the next 20 years research will be able to achieve only modest reductions in their degree of uncertainty. PMID:20616045

  2. Experts, Dialects, and Discourse.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bhatt, Rakesh Mohan

    2002-01-01

    Examines "expert" discourse--complexes of signs and practices that organize and legitimize social existence and social reproduction--to demonstrate the ideological process involved in the manufacture of Standard English ideology and its continual duplication as necessitated by the three axiomatic conceptions of the English-sacred imagined…

  3. Elicitation Support Requirements of Multi-Expertise Teams

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bitter-Rijpkema, Marlies; Martens, Rob; Jochems, Wim

    2005-01-01

    Tools to support knowledge elicitation are used more and more in situations where employees or students collaborate using the computer. Studies indicate that differences exist between experts and novices regarding their methods of work and reasoning. However, the commonly preferred approach tends to deal with team members as a single system with…

  4. Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

    1992-01-01

    Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

  5. Hot potato: expert-consumer differences in the perception of a second-generation novel food.

    PubMed

    Hagemann, Kit S; Scholderer, Joachim

    2009-07-01

    Novel foods have been the object of intense public debate in recent years. Despite widespread efforts to communicate the outcomes of risk assessments to consumers, public confidence in risk management has been low. Social scientists have identified various reasons for this, including a disagreement between technical experts and consumers over the nature of the hazards on which risk assessments should focus. The aim of this study was to identify and compare the ways in which experts and consumers understand the benefits and risks associated with a genetically modified example crop. Two qualitative studies were conducted. In Study 1, mental models were elicited from 24 experts by means of a three-wave Delphi procedure. In Study 2, mental models were elicited from 25 consumers by means of in-depth interviews. As expected, the expert mental models were focused on the types of hazards that can realistically be addressed under current regulatory frameworks, whereas the consumers were often more concerned about issues outside the scope of current legislation. Moreover, the experts tended to define risk and benefit in terms of detailed chains of cause-effect relationships between variables for which clear definitions and measurement rules exist. The concepts the consumers used when reasoning about biological processes were very abstract, suggesting that the participants had, at most, a holistic understanding. In line with this, issues of uncertainty played a prominent role for the consumers.

  6. Expert systems in seismic exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Denham, L.R.

    1985-02-01

    Artificial intelligence research has produced few practical results in most of its branches. However, expert systems in limited fields of expertise are potentially practical and cost-effective tools in many fields of exploration geophysics. Recent breakthroughs, such as writing expert systems in languages less exotic than Lisp, have made it possible to install a practical expert system on even the smallest computer. A recently published expert system written in Forth compiles a rule base into very compact code, and then uses it to reach decisions based on data supplied by the user. Such a system makes it possible for a small computer to be the geophysicist's advisor on many different subjects, because one expert system can use any number of rule bases. The expert system then becomes a practical tool for standardizing the decision-making process, even in comparatively trivial areas.

  7. Elicitation of natural language representations of uncertainty using computer technology

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.; Goeltz, R.; Travis, C.; Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN )

    1989-01-01

    Knowledge elicitation is an important aspect of risk analysis. Knowledge about risks must be accurately elicited from experts for use in risk assessments. Knowledge and perceptions of risks must also be accurately elicited from the public in order to intelligently perform policy analysis and develop and implement programs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is developing computer technology to effectively and efficiently elicit knowledge from experts and the public. This paper discusses software developed to elicit natural language representations of uncertainty. The software is written in Common Lisp and resides on VAX Computers System and Symbolics Lisp machines. The software has three goals, to determine preferences for using natural language terms for representing uncertainty; likelihood rankings of the terms; and how likelihood estimates are combined to form new terms. The first two goals relate to providing useful results for those interested in risk communication. The third relates to providing cognitive data to further our understanding of people's decision making under uncertainty. The software is used to elicit natural language terms used to express the likelihood of various agents causing cancer in humans and cancer resulting in various maladies, and the likelihood of everyday events. 6 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

  8. Eliciting User Requirements Using Appreciative Inquiry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonzales, Carol Kernitzki

    2010-01-01

    Many software development projects fail because they do not meet the needs of users, are over-budget, and abandoned. To address this problem, the user requirements elicitation process was modified based on principles of Appreciative Inquiry. Appreciative Inquiry, commonly used in organizational development, aims to build organizations, processes,…

  9. Being an Expert Mathematics Online Tutor: What Does Expertise Entail?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martinovic, Dragana

    2009-01-01

    This article is derived from the qualitative portion of a larger study conducted on mathematics websites that provide expert volunteer help. Data consist of tutoring logs of five expert tutors from two help sites, plus interviews with these tutors. The researcher has employed theories about expertise in the educational domain to elicit details of…

  10. Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA), which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK) to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1) Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA), and 2) Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR). In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1) Data collection and data preparation; 2) acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK) and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB); 3) PKB-guided analysis; 4) support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited); 5) incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6) post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering), applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This paper presents Eb

  11. Capital Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dowell, Laurie; Gary, Jack; Illingworth, Bill; Sargent, Tom

    1987-05-01

    Gathering information, necessary forms, and financial calculations needed to generate a "capital investment proposal" is an extremely complex and difficult process. The intent of the capital investment proposal is to ensure management that the proposed investment has been thoroughly investigated and will have a positive impact on corporate goals. Meeting this requirement typically takes four or five experts a total of 12 hours to generate a "Capital Package." A Capital Expert System was therefore developed using "Personal Consultant." The completed system is hybrid and as such does not depend solely on rules but incorporates several different software packages that communicate through variables and functions passed from one to another. This paper describes the use of expert system techniques, methodology in building the knowledge base, contexts, LISP functions, data base, and special challenges that had to be overcome to create this system. The Capital Expert System is the successful result of a unique integration of artificial intelligence with business accounting, financial forms generation, and investment proposal expertise.

  12. An overview of the national immunization policy making process: the role of the Korea expert committee on immunization practices.

    PubMed

    Cho, Hee Yeon

    2012-01-01

    The need for evidence-based decision making in immunization programs has increased due to the presence of multiple health priorities, limited human resources, expensive vaccines, and limited funds. Countries should establish a group of national experts to advise their Ministries of Health. So far, many nations have formed their own National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs). In the Republic of Korea, the Korea Expert Committee on Immunization Practices (KECIP), established by law in the early 1990s, has made many important technical recommendations to contribute to the decline in vaccine preventable diseases and currently functions as a NITAG. It includes 13 core members and 2 non-core members, including a chairperson. Core members usually come from affiliated organizations in internal medicine, pediatrics, obstetrics, microbiology, preventive medicine, nursing and a representative from a consumer group, all of whom serve two year terms. Non-core members comprise two government officials belonging to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) and the Korea Food and Drug Administration. Meetings are held as needed, but at least twice a year, and sub-committees are formed as a resource for gathering, analyzing, and preparing information for the KECIP meetings. Once the sub-committees or the KCDC review the available data, the KECIP members discuss each issue in depth and develop recommendations, usually by a consensus in the meeting. The KECIP publishes national guidelines and immunization schedules that are updated regularly. KECIP's role is essentially consultative and the implementation of their recommendations may depend on the budget or current laws.

  13. Expert Systems: An Overview.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Adiga, Sadashiv

    1984-01-01

    Discusses: (1) the architecture of expert systems; (2) features that distinguish expert systems from conventional programs; (3) conditions necessary to select a particular application for the development of successful expert systems; (4) issues to be resolved when building expert systems; and (5) limitations. Examples of selected expert systems…

  14. Expert systems for personnel assignment

    SciTech Connect

    Hardee, J.L.; Liepins, G.

    1986-01-01

    In order to reduce stress on assignment personnel (detailers) and ensure maximum fairness and consistency in the Navy's personnel assignment process, The Navy Military Personnel Command (NMPC) has begun to explore the potential use of expert systems to supplement current manual and computerized distribution methods. The Detailer's Assistant expert system is being developed to improve the detailers' ability to satisfy the needs of their constituents and Navy management. An initial prototype of the Detailer's Assistant is now being evaluated. Numerous upgrades and extensions should lead to an operational system in the near future. Further development to a production system will involve additional research in machine learning, intelligent database methods, and cooperating expert systems.

  15. Structuring expert input for a knowledge-based approach to watershed condition assessment for the Northwest Forest Plan, USA.

    PubMed

    Gordon, Sean N; Gallo, Kirsten

    2011-01-01

    Assessments of watershed condition for aquatic and riparian species often have to rely on expert opinion because of the complexity of establishing statistical relationships among the many factors involved. Such expert-based assessments can be difficult to document and apply consistently over time and space. We describe and reflect on the process of developing a computer-based decision support application from expert judgments for assessing aquatic and riparian conditions over the 100,000 km² managed by the US federal government under the Northwest Forest Plan. The decision support system helped structure and document the assessment process and provided consistency and transparency to the evaluation methodology. However, many decisions and trade-offs were required in the expert engagement and model-building processes. Knowledge elicitation in an interactive group had a number of benefits over nominal group or Delphi processes, but efficient knowledge capture required considerable planning and expertise in the subject matter and modeling process. Communicating model results for validation was problematic and only effectively accomplished via in-person workshops. The choice to use different expert groups for each biophysical province provided more opportunities for participation and promoted greater ownership in the assessment, but it also led to increased variation among the resulting model structures. We propose three possible approaches for better managing the consistency of assessment models when multiple expert groups are involved.

  16. Sources of correlation between experts: Empirical results from two extremes

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1987-04-01

    Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion.

  17. Speech spectrogram expert

    SciTech Connect

    Johannsen, J.; Macallister, J.; Michalek, T.; Ross, S.

    1983-01-01

    Various authors have pointed out that humans can become quite adept at deriving phonetic transcriptions from speech spectrograms (as good as 90percent accuracy at the phoneme level). The authors describe an expert system which attempts to simulate this performance. The speech spectrogram expert (spex) is actually a society made up of three experts: a 2-dimensional vision expert, an acoustic-phonetic expert, and a phonetics expert. The visual reasoning expert finds important visual features of the spectrogram. The acoustic-phonetic expert reasons about how visual features relates to phonemes, and about how phonemes change visually in different contexts. The phonetics expert reasons about allowable phoneme sequences and transformations, and deduces an english spelling for phoneme strings. The speech spectrogram expert is highly interactive, allowing users to investigate hypotheses and edit rules. 10 references.

  18. Is expert opinion reliable when estimating transition probabilities? The case of HCV-related cirrhosis in Egypt

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Data on HCV-related cirrhosis progression are scarce in developing countries in general, and in Egypt in particular. The objective of this study was to estimate the probability of death and transition between different health stages of HCV (compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma) for an Egyptian population of patients with HCV-related cirrhosis. Methods We used the “elicitation of expert opinions” method to obtain collective knowledge from a panel of 23 Egyptian experts (among whom 17 were hepatologists or gastroenterologists and 2 were infectiologists). The questionnaire was based on virtual medical cases and asked the experts to assess probability of death or probability of various cirrhosis complications. The design was a Delphi study: we attempted to obtain a consensus between experts via a series of questionnaires interspersed with group response feedback. Results We found substantial disparity between experts’ answers, and no consensus was reached at the end of the process. Moreover, we obtained high death probability and high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. The annual transition probability to death was estimated at between 10.1% and 61.5% and the annual probability of occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma was estimated at between 16.8% and 58.9% (depending on age, gender, time spent in cirrhosis and cirrhosis severity). Conclusions Our results show that eliciting expert opinions is not suited for determining the natural history of diseases due to practitioners’ difficulties in evaluating quantities. Cognitive bias occurring during this type of study might explain our results. PMID:24635942

  19. Eliciting Public Attitudes Regarding Bioremediation Cleanup Technologies: Lessons Learned from a Consensus Workshop in Idaho

    SciTech Connect

    Denise Lach, Principle Investigator; Stephanie Sanford, Co-P.I.

    2003-03-01

    During the summer of 2002, we developed and implemented a ''consensus workshop'' with Idaho citizens to elicit their concerns and issues regarding the use of bioremediation as a cleanup technology for radioactive nuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The consensus workshop is a derivation of a technology assessment method designed to ensure dialogue between experts and lay people. It has its origins in the United States in the form of ''consensus development conferences'' used by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to elicit professional knowledge and concerns about new medical treatments. Over the last 25 years, NIH has conducted over 100 consensus development conferences. (Jorgensen 1995). The consensus conference is grounded in the idea that technology assessment and policy needs to be socially negotiated among many different stakeholders and groups rather than narrowly defined by a group of experts. To successfully implement new technology, the public requires access to information that addresses a full complement of issues including understanding the organization proposing the technology. The consensus conference method creates an informed dialogue, making technology understandable to the general public and sets it within perspectives and priorities that may differ radically from those of the expert community. While specific outcomes differ depending on the overall context of a conference, one expected outcome is that citizen panel members develop greater knowledge of the technology during the conference process and, sometimes, the entire panel experiences a change in attitude toward the technology and/or the organization proposing its use (Kluver 1995). The purpose of this research project was to explore the efficacy of the consensus conference model as a way to elicit the input of the general public about bioremediation of radionuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy sites. Objectives of the research included: (1

  20. Eliciting geologists' tacit model of the uncertainty of mapped geological boundaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, R. M.; Lawley, R. S.; Barron, A. J. M.; Aldiss, D. T.; Ambrose, K.; Cooper, A. H.; Lee, J. R.; Waters, C. N.

    2015-01-01

    It is generally accepted that geological linework, such as mapped boundaries, are uncertain for various reasons. It is difficult to quantify this uncertainty directly, because the investigation of error in a boundary at a single location may be costly and time consuming, and many such observations are needed to estimate an uncertainty model with confidence. However, it is also recognized across many disciplines that experts generally have a tacit model of the uncertainty of information that they produce (interpretations, diagnoses etc.) and formal methods exist to extract this model in usable form by elicitation. In this paper we report a trial in which uncertainty models for mapped boundaries in six geological scenarios were elicited from a group of five experienced geologists. In five cases a consensus distribution was obtained, which reflected both the initial individually elicted distribution and a structured process of group discussion in which individuals revised their opinions. In a sixth case a consensus was not reached. This concerned a boundary between superficial deposits where the geometry of the contact is hard to visualize. The trial showed that the geologists' tacit model of uncertainty in mapped boundaries reflects factors in addition to the cartographic error usually treated by buffering linework or in written guidance on its application. It suggests that further application of elicitation, to scenarios at an appropriate level of generalization, could be useful to provide working error models for the application and interpretation of linework.

  1. How experiences become data: the process of eliciting adverse event, medical history and concomitant medication reports in antimalarial and antiretroviral interaction trials

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Accurately characterizing a drug’s safety profile is essential. Trial harm and tolerability assessments rely, in part, on participants’ reports of medical histories, adverse events (AEs), and concomitant medications. Optimal methods for questioning participants are unclear, but different methods giving different results can undermine meta-analyses. This study compared methods for eliciting such data and explored reasons for dissimilar participant responses. Methods Participants from open-label antimalarial and antiretroviral interaction trials in two distinct sites (South Africa, n = 18 [all HIV positive]; Tanzania, n = 80 [86% HIV positive]) were asked about ill health and treatment use by sequential use of (1) general enquiries without reference to particular conditions, body systems or treatments, (2) checklists of potential health issues and treatments, (3) in-depth interviews. Participants’ experiences of illness and treatment and their reporting behaviour were explored qualitatively, as were trial clinicians’ experiences with obtaining participant reports. Outcomes were the number and nature of data by questioning method, themes from qualitative analyses and a theoretical interpretation of participants’ experiences. Results There was an overall cumulative increase in the number of reports from general enquiry through checklists to in-depth interview; in South Africa, an additional 12 medical histories, 21 AEs and 27 medications; in Tanzania an additional 260 medical histories, 1 AE and 11 medications. Checklists and interviews facilitated recognition of health issues and treatments, and consideration of what to report. Information was sometimes not reported because participants forgot, it was considered irrelevant or insignificant, or they feared reporting. Some medicine names were not known and answers to questions were considered inferior to blood tests for detecting ill health. South African inpatient volunteers exhibited a

  2. The Development of Expert Face Processing: Are Infants Sensitive to Normal Differences in Second-Order Relational Information?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayden, Angela; Bhatt, Ramesh S.; Reed, Andrea; Corbly, Christine R.; Joseph, Jane E.

    2007-01-01

    Sensitivity to second-order relational information (i.e., spatial relations among features such as the distance between eyes) is a vital part of achieving expertise with face processing. Prior research is unclear on whether infants are sensitive to second-order differences seen in typical human populations. In the current experiments, we examined…

  3. The nutrition advisor expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huse, Scott M.; Shyne, Scott S.

    1991-01-01

    The Nutrition Advisor Expert System (NAES) is an expert system written in the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS). NAES provides expert knowledge and guidance into the complex world of nutrition management by capturing the knowledge of an expert and placing it at the user's fingertips. Specifically, NAES enables the user to: (1) obtain precise nutrition information for food items; (2) perform nutritional analysis of meal(s), flagging deficiencies based upon the U.S. Recommended Daily Allowances; (3) predict possible ailments based upon observed nutritional deficiency trends; (4) obtain a top ten listing of food items for a given nutrient; and (5) conveniently upgrade the data base. An explanation facility for the ailment prediction feature is also provided to document the reasoning process.

  4. Uncertainty in mapped geological boundaries held by a national geological survey:eliciting the geologists' tacit error model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, R. M.; Lawley, R. S.; Barron, A. J. M.; Aldiss, D. T.; Ambrose, K.; Cooper, A. H.; Lee, J. R.; Waters, C. N.

    2015-06-01

    It is generally accepted that geological line work, such as mapped boundaries, are uncertain for various reasons. It is difficult to quantify this uncertainty directly, because the investigation of error in a boundary at a single location may be costly and time consuming, and many such observations are needed to estimate an uncertainty model with confidence. However, it is recognized across many disciplines that experts generally have a tacit model of the uncertainty of information that they produce (interpretations, diagnoses, etc.) and formal methods exist to extract this model in usable form by elicitation. In this paper we report a trial in which uncertainty models for geological boundaries mapped by geologists of the British Geological Survey (BGS) in six geological scenarios were elicited from a group of five experienced BGS geologists. In five cases a consensus distribution was obtained, which reflected both the initial individually elicited distribution and a structured process of group discussion in which individuals revised their opinions. In a sixth case a consensus was not reached. This concerned a boundary between superficial deposits where the geometry of the contact is hard to visualize. The trial showed that the geologists' tacit model of uncertainty in mapped boundaries reflects factors in addition to the cartographic error usually treated by buffering line work or in written guidance on its application. It suggests that further application of elicitation, to scenarios at an appropriate level of generalization, could be useful to provide working error models for the application and interpretation of line work.

  5. Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

    2016-04-01

    For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

  6. What Are Expert Systems?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    d'Agapeyeff, A.

    1986-01-01

    Intended for potential business users, this paper describes the main characteristics of expert systems; discusses practical use considerations; presents a taxonomy of the systems; and reviews several expert system development projects in business and industry. (MBR)

  7. Punishment of elicited aggression.

    PubMed

    Azrin, N H

    1970-07-01

    Aversive shocks are known to produce aggression when the shocks are not dependent on behavior and to suppress behavior when the shocks are arranged as a dependent punisher. These two processes were studied by presenting non-dependent shock to monkeys at regular intervals, thereby producing biting attacks on a pneumatic tube. Immediate shock punishment was stimultaneously delivered for each biting attack. The attacks were found to decrease as a function of increasing punishment intensity. These results show that aggression is eliminated by direct punishment of the aggression even when the stimulus that is used as a punisher otherwise causes the aggression. PMID:4988590

  8. The Expert Witness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Environmental Science and Technology, 1975

    1975-01-01

    As consumers organize and industry begins to feel the economic pinch of pollution control laws, litigation may increase as will the need for the expert witness. Discussed are the functions and preparations of expert witnesses, their role and conduct in judicial proceedings, and the techniques of being an expert witness. (BT)

  9. Brain response to birdsongs in bird experts.

    PubMed

    Chartrand, Jean-Pierre; Filion-Bilodeau, Sarah; Belin, Pascal

    2007-03-01

    Auditory expertise has mostly been studied in relation to musical processing, but expert auditory processing can also involve nonmusical auditory stimuli, such as birdsongs in bird experts. In this study, the neural correlates of bird expertise were investigated by using electroencephalography to measure auditory-evoked potentials in bird experts and novices. Auditory stimuli in three categories (birdsongs, environmental sounds and voices) were presented in a pseudo-random order while participants performed a simple target detection task (pure tone). We observed similar amplitudes and distributions of the N100-component in bird experts and novices. In contrast, the amplitude of the P200 component was significantly smaller in bird experts at the Pz and Cz electrodes, reflecting a more frontal topography of this positivity. Notably, this group difference was observed not only for birdsongs, but also for voices and environmental sounds, suggesting a general processing difference in bird experts, not restricted to the category of expertise.

  10. Brain response to birdsongs in bird experts.

    PubMed

    Chartrand, Jean-Pierre; Filion-Bilodeau, Sarah; Belin, Pascal

    2007-03-01

    Auditory expertise has mostly been studied in relation to musical processing, but expert auditory processing can also involve nonmusical auditory stimuli, such as birdsongs in bird experts. In this study, the neural correlates of bird expertise were investigated by using electroencephalography to measure auditory-evoked potentials in bird experts and novices. Auditory stimuli in three categories (birdsongs, environmental sounds and voices) were presented in a pseudo-random order while participants performed a simple target detection task (pure tone). We observed similar amplitudes and distributions of the N100-component in bird experts and novices. In contrast, the amplitude of the P200 component was significantly smaller in bird experts at the Pz and Cz electrodes, reflecting a more frontal topography of this positivity. Notably, this group difference was observed not only for birdsongs, but also for voices and environmental sounds, suggesting a general processing difference in bird experts, not restricted to the category of expertise. PMID:17435598

  11. Spoonerisms as Sequencer Conflicts: Evidence from Artifically Elicited Errors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baars, Bernard J.; Motley, Michael T.

    1976-01-01

    Presents evidence that spoonerisms result from a conflict in word sequencing that carries through to phoneme sequencing, and in the process illustrates the use of some techniques for the experimental elicitation of spoonerisms. (Author/RK)

  12. Confessions and expert testimony.

    PubMed

    Weiss, Kenneth J

    2003-01-01

    In this clinical paper, the author discusses criminal confessions from the point of view of the expert witness who may be asked to comment on the reliability of the statement and waiver of rights. From the time a suspect is in police custody, constitutional protections against self-incrimination and for due process are in place. The Supreme Court set the standard for these situations in the 1966 Miranda v. Arizona decision. Although it has long been criticized by law enforcement, the decision was upheld in the 2000 decision in Dickerson v. U.S. For a waiver of rights to be valid, it must be a knowing, intelligent, and voluntary decision. Voluntariness is an equation of objective and subjective variables. Treatment by police, physical conditions of interrogation, the suspect's experience and mental state can alter the reliability of a confession. Accordingly, the author has devised a mnemonic for the recognition of conditions that may give rise to expert testimony. The conditions are: Mental illness, Intoxication, Retardation, Acquiescence, Narcotic withdrawal, Deception, and Abuse. These are discussed, supported by examples from the author's practice.

  13. Expert Systems as a Mindtool To Facilitate Mental Model Learning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mason-Mason, Susan Dale; Tessmer, Martin A.

    2000-01-01

    This exploratory study investigated whether the process of constructing an expert system model promotes the formation of expert-like mental models. Discusses expert systems as mindtools, expert systems as learning tools, the assessment of mental models, results of pretests and posttests, and future research. (Contains 56 references.) (Author/LRW)

  14. Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors.

    PubMed

    Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M Granger

    2013-06-11

    Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable.

  15. Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors.

    PubMed

    Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M Granger

    2013-06-11

    Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable. PMID:23716682

  16. Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors

    PubMed Central

    Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M. Granger

    2013-01-01

    Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable. PMID:23716682

  17. Liquid low level waste management expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Ferrada, J.J.; Abraham, T.J. ); Jackson, J.R. )

    1991-01-01

    An expert system has been developed as part of a new initiative for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) systems analysis program. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem, as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. 4 refs., 9 figs.

  18. Identification of the molecular mechanisms in cellular processes that elicit a surface plasmon resonance (SPR) response using simultaneous surface plasmon-enhanced fluorescence (SPEF) microscopy.

    PubMed

    Chabot, Vincent; Miron, Yannick; Charette, Paul G; Grandbois, Michel

    2013-12-15

    Surface plasmon resonance (SPR) has developed into a powerful approach for label-free monitoring of cellular behavior. Most cellular responses, however, involve a complex cascade of molecular events which makes identifying the specific components of cellular behavior dynamics contributing to the aggregate SPR signal problematic. Recently, a number of groups have used surface plasmon-enhanced fluorescence (SPEF) microscopy on living cells. In this work, we show that SPEF microscopy can be used to identify the molecular mechanisms responsible for SPR detection of cellular processes. By specifically labeling the actin cytoskeleton in human epithelial kidney cells (HEK 293) and rat vascular smooth muscle cells (A7r5), we correlate cell reorganization observed in SPEF with SPR signal variations reflecting aggregate cellular changes. HEK 293 cells stimulated with angiotensin-II exhibited transient contraction, appearing as an SPR signal decrease with a subsequent increase above the initial baseline. SPEF micrographs showed a decrease in cellular area followed by actin densification and cell spreading. A7r5 stimulated with Latrunculin A showed actin cytoskeleton depolymerization, generating a steady SPR signal decrease, with SPEF micrographs showing extensive collapse of cell actin structures. We observed that SPR monitoring of cellular response is strongly dependent on minute variations in cellular footprint on the substrate as well as changes in the molecular density in the basal portions of the cells. Therefore, combining SPR with imaging of selective fluorescent markers by SPEF allows a more comprehensive deconvolution of the cellular signal in relation to molecular events within the cells.

  19. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chernysheva, T. Y.; Кorchuganova, M. A.; Borisov, V. V.; Min’kov, S. L.

    2016-04-01

    Revealing experts’ competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  20. A Concise Set of Structure and Process Indicators to Assess and Compare Antimicrobial Stewardship Programs Among EU and US Hospitals: Results From a Multinational Expert Panel.

    PubMed

    Pollack, Lori A; Plachouras, Diamantis; Sinkowitz-Cochran, Ronda; Gruhler, Heidi; Monnet, Dominique L; Weber, J Todd

    2016-10-01

    OBJECTIVES To develop common indicators, relevant to both EU member states and the United States, that characterize and allow for meaningful comparison of antimicrobial stewardship programs among different countries and healthcare systems. DESIGN Modified Delphi process. PARTICIPANTS A multinational panel of 20 experts in antimicrobial stewardship. METHODS Potential indicators were rated on the perceived feasibility to implement and measure each indicator and clinical importance for optimizing appropriate antimicrobial prescribing. RESULTS The outcome was a set of 33 indicators developed to characterize the infrastructure and activities of hospital antimicrobial stewardship programs. Among them 17 indicators were considered essential to characterize an antimicrobial stewardship program and therefore were included in a core set of indicators. The remaining 16 indicators were considered optional indicators and included in a supplemental set. CONCLUSIONS The integration of these indicators in public health surveillance and special studies will lead to a better understanding of best practices in antimicrobial stewardship. Additionally, future studies can explore the association of hospital antimicrobial stewardship programs to antimicrobial use and resistance. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2016:1-11.

  1. What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bond, C. E.

    2008-12-01

    Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

  2. Hybrid expert system for decision supporting in the medical area: complexity and cognitive computing.

    PubMed

    Brasil, L M; de Azevedo, F M; Barreto, J M

    2001-09-01

    This paper proposes a hybrid expert system (HES) to minimise some complexity problems pervasive to the artificial intelligence such as: the knowledge elicitation process, known as the bottleneck of expert systems; the model choice for knowledge representation to code human reasoning; the number of neurons in the hidden layer and the topology used in the connectionist approach; the difficulty to obtain the explanation on how the network arrived to a conclusion. Two algorithms applied to developing of HES are also suggested. One of them is used to train the fuzzy neural network and the other to obtain explanations on how the fuzzy neural network attained a conclusion. To overcome these difficulties the cognitive computing was integrated to the developed system. A case study is presented (e.g. epileptic crisis) with the problem definition and simulations. Results are also discussed.

  3. Expert system application education project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

    1988-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

  4. Testing expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chang, C. L.; Stachowitz, R. A.

    1988-01-01

    Software quality is of primary concern in all large-scale expert system development efforts. Building appropriate validation and test tools for ensuring software reliability of expert systems is therefore required. The Expert Systems Validation Associate (EVA) is a validation system under development at the Lockheed Artificial Intelligence Center. EVA provides a wide range of validation and test tools to check correctness, consistency, and completeness of an expert system. Testing a major function of EVA. It means executing an expert system with test cases with the intent of finding errors. In this paper, we describe many different types of testing such as function-based testing, structure-based testing, and data-based testing. We describe how appropriate test cases may be selected in order to perform good and thorough testing of an expert system.

  5. The use of fuzzy control system methods for characterizing expert judgment uncertainty distributions

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, R.E.; Booker, J.M.; Bement, T.R.; Parkinson, W.J.; Meyer, M.A.; Jamshidi, M.

    1998-12-01

    Fuzzy logic methods permit experts to assess parameters affecting performance of components/systems in natural language terms more familiar to them (e.g., high, good, etc.). Recognizing that there is a cost associated with obtaining more precise information, the authors particular interest is in cases where the relationship between the condition of the system and its performance is not well understood, especially for some sets of possible operating conditions, and where developing a better understanding is very difficult and/or expensive. The methods allow the experts to make use of the level of precision with which they understand the underlying process. The authors consider and compare various methods of formulating the process just described, with an application in reliability analysis where expert information forms a significant (if not sole) source of data for reliability analysis. The flow of information through the fuzzy-control-systems based analysis is studied using a simple, hypothetical problem which mimics the structure used to elicit expert information in Parse. They also characterize the effect of using progressively more refined information and examine the use of fuzzy-based methods as data pooling/fusion mechanisms.

  6. Expert systems for superalloy studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

    1990-01-01

    There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

  7. A systematic, holistic and integrative process of self-control for voicing with optimal coping effects in teachers. 2. A process of change--an expert's opinion.

    PubMed

    Van Opstal, Magda J M Carola

    2010-01-01

    A learning strategy is presented for eustress-euvoicing, which prevails over distress-disvoicing. It is based on the understanding of the mechanisms of stress-voicing, conceived as a dynamic circular process of interacting entities, i.e. stressors/signals-arousal/activation-emotion-coping-effects (SAECE), which is the rationale for a multidisciplinary approach in coaching professional voice users. A systematic, holistic and integrative process of self-control (SHIPS) is directed by functional analysis and consists of awareness and change. Emotion, a mixture of appraisal, affect and movement, is the pivot in SHIPS. SHIPS with (student) teachers aims at the competence of voicing (V) in an optimal (O) way of coping (C), which means vocal communication that is effective (E) to meet a balance in physical, interpersonal and existential wellness when responding to demands and challenges in the individual teacher's (T) field of communication (VOCE-T). The process of change intends to influence the course of multiple interactions in SAECE. SHIPS (de)conditions distressors and eutressors related to (non)-integrated coping. The (student) teacher and coach are conscious and active participants in the process of change that aims at (un)learning of attitudes and skills for coping by VOCE-T.

  8. A systematic, holistic and integrative process of self-control for voicing with optimal coping effects in teachers. 1. A process of awareness--an expert's opinion.

    PubMed

    Van Opstal, Magda J M Carola

    2010-01-01

    A learning strategy is presented for eustress-euvoicing, which prevails over distress-disvoicing. It is based on the understanding of the mechanisms of stress-voicing, conceived as a dynamic circular process of interacting entities, i.e. stressors/signals-arousal/activation-emotion-coping-effects (SAECE), which is the rationale for a multidisciplinary approach in coaching professional voice users. A systematic, holistic and integrative process of self-control (SHIPS) is directed by functional analysis and consists of awareness and change. Emotion, a mixture of appraisal, affect and movement, is the pivot in SHIPS. SHIPS with (student) teachers aims at the competence of voicing (V) in an optimal (O) way of coping (C), which means vocal communication that is effective (E) to meet a balance in physical, interpersonal and existential wellness when responding to demands and challenges in the individual teacher's (T) field of communication (VOCE-T). The process of awareness intends to understand the course of multiple interactions in SAECE that condition eustressors and distressors related to (non)-integrated coping. The (student) teacher and coach are conscious and active participants in the process of awareness that is dynamic and evolving and aims at the preparedness to change non-desirable habits and skill modes into VOCE-T.

  9. Using Expert Systems For Computational Tasks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duke, Eugene L.; Regenie, Victoria A.; Brazee, Marylouise; Brumbaugh, Randal W.

    1990-01-01

    Transformation technique enables inefficient expert systems to run in real time. Paper suggests use of knowledge compiler to transform knowledge base and inference mechanism of expert-system computer program into conventional computer program. Main benefit, faster execution and reduced processing demands. In avionic systems, transformation reduces need for special-purpose computers.

  10. Unravelling the Mysteries of Expert Mental Calculation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hope, Jack A.

    1985-01-01

    The processes and procedures used by expert mental calculators are identified from a literature review. Experts are characterized by knowledge of a variety of methods, ability to recall numerical equivalents, and ability to remember the numbers involved in various stages of calculations. (MNS)

  11. Expert system technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prince, Mary Ellen

    1987-01-01

    The expert system is a computer program which attempts to reproduce the problem-solving behavior of an expert, who is able to view problems from a broad perspective and arrive at conclusions rapidly, using intuition, shortcuts, and analogies to previous situations. Expert systems are a departure from the usual artificial intelligence approach to problem solving. Researchers have traditionally tried to develop general modes of human intelligence that could be applied to many different situations. Expert systems, on the other hand, tend to rely on large quantities of domain specific knowledge, much of it heuristic. The reasoning component of the system is relatively simple and straightforward. For this reason, expert systems are often called knowledge based systems. The report expands on the foregoing. Section 1 discusses the architecture of a typical expert system. Section 2 deals with the characteristics that make a problem a suitable candidate for expert system solution. Section 3 surveys current technology, describing some of the software aids available for expert system development. Section 4 discusses the limitations of the latter. The concluding section makes predictions of future trends.

  12. Adaptive feature extraction expert

    SciTech Connect

    Yuschik, M.

    1983-01-01

    The identification of discriminatory features places an upper bound on the recognition rate of any automatic speech recognition (ASR) system. One way to structure the extraction of features is to construct an expert system which applies a set of rules to identify particular properties of the speech patterns. However, these patterns vary for an individual speaker and from speaker to speaker so that another expert is actually needed to learn the new variations. The author investigates the problem by using sets of discriminatory features that are suggested by a feature generation expert, improves the selectivity of these features with a training expert, and finally develops a minimally spanning feature set with a statistical selection expert. 12 references.

  13. Ethical Expert Systems

    PubMed Central

    Victoroff, Michael S.

    1985-01-01

    The title is a double entendre. The discussion approaches expert systems from two directions: “What ethical hazards are created by expert systems in medicine?” and “Would it be ethical to design an expert system for solving problems in bioethics?” Computers present new ethical problems to society, some of which are unprecedented. These can be categorized under several rubrics. The paper describes a rudimentary scheme for understanding ethical issues raised by computers, in general, and medical expert systems, in particular. It focuses on bioethical implications of AI in medicine; explores norms, assumptions and taboos; and highlights certain ethical pitfalls. Principles are elucidated, for building ethically sound systems. Finally, a proposal is discussed, for the design of an expert system for moral problem solving, and the ethical implications of this notion are analyzed.

  14. Simplifying Probability Elicitation and Uncertainty Modeling in Bayesian Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Paulson, Patrick R; Carroll, Thomas E; Sivaraman, Chitra; Neorr, Peter A; Unwin, Stephen D; Hossain, Shamina S

    2011-04-16

    In this paper we contribute two methods that simplify the demands of knowledge elicitation for particular types of Bayesian networks. The first method simplify the task of providing probabilities when the states that a random variable takes can be described by a new, fully ordered state set in which a state implies all the preceding states. The second method leverages Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to provide a way for the expert to express the degree of ignorance that they feel about the estimates being provided.

  15. A Review of Expertise and Judgment Processes for Risk Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    R. L. Boring

    2007-06-01

    A major challenge of risk and reliability analysis for human errors or hardware failures is the need to enlist expert opinion in areas for which adequate operational data are not available. Experts enlisted in this capacity provide probabilistic estimates of reliability, typically comprised of a measure of central tendency and uncertainty bounds. While formal guidelines for expert elicitation are readily available, they largely fail to provide a theoretical basis for expertise and judgment. This paper reviews expertise and judgment in the context of risk analysis; overviews judgment biases, the role of training, and multivariate judgments; and provides guidance on the appropriate use of atomistic and holistic judgment processes.

  16. Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

    SciTech Connect

    Fine, T.L.

    1980-04-01

    This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context.

  17. Food webs: experts consuming families of experts.

    PubMed

    Rossberg, A G; Matsuda, H; Amemiya, T; Itoh, K

    2006-08-01

    Food webs of habitats as diverse as lakes or desert valleys are known to exhibit common "food-web patterns", but the detailed mechanisms generating these structures have remained unclear. By employing a stochastic, dynamical model, we show that many aspects of the structure of predatory food webs can be understood as the traces of an evolutionary history where newly evolving species avoid direct competition with their relatives. The tendency to avoid sharing natural enemies (apparent competition) with related species is considerably weaker. Thus, "experts consuming families of experts" can be identified as the main underlying food-web pattern. We report the results of a systematic, quantitative model validation showing that the model is surprisingly accurate.

  18. 20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... Section 405.10 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW PROCESS FOR... and Vocational Expert Unit and a national network of qualified medical, psychological, and vocational... and psychological experts from the national network may assist a State agency in...

  19. A new way to ask the experts: Rating radioactive waste risks

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, R.A.

    1996-11-08

    The possible risks of a proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain include the dozen or more young volcanos near by. Now some earth scientists have a new approach to evaluating hazards accounting for uncertainty at every step - `expert elicitation.` This pulls together a panel of experts, carefully assesses the uncertainties of each of their views then mathematically combines their risk estimates along with the accompanying uncertainties. The article goes on to describe just such a panel which considered seismic hazards to Yucca Mountain, how they came to their conclusions, the arguments about the conclusions, and the future of expert elicitation in evaluating the risks of nuclear waste disposal.

  20. Heat exchanger expert system logic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cormier, R.

    1988-01-01

    The reduction is described of the operation and fault diagnostics of a Deep Space Network heat exchanger to a rule base by the application of propositional calculus to a set of logic statements. The value of this approach lies in the ease of converting the logic and subsequently implementing it on a computer as an expert system. The rule base was written in Process Intelligent Control software.

  1. Practical problems in aggregating expert opinions

    SciTech Connect

    Booker, J.M.; Picard, R.R.; Meyer, M.A.

    1993-11-01

    Expert opinion is data given by a qualified person in response to a technical question. In these analyses, expert opinion provides information where other data are either sparse or non-existent. Improvements in forecasting result from the advantageous addition of expert opinion to observed data in many areas, such as meteorology and econometrics. More generally, analyses of large, complex systems often involve experts on various components of the system supplying input to a decision process; applications include such wide-ranging areas as nuclear reactor safety, management science, and seismology. For large or complex applications, no single expert may be knowledgeable enough about the entire application. In other problems, decision makers may find it comforting that a consensus or aggregation of opinions is usually better than a single opinion. Many risk and reliability studies require a single estimate for modeling, analysis, reporting, and decision making purposes. For problems with large uncertainties, the strategy of combining as diverse a set of experts as possible hedges against underestimation of that uncertainty. Decision makers are frequently faced with the task of selecting the experts and combining their opinions. However, the aggregation is often the responsibility of an analyst. Whether the decision maker or the analyst does the aggregation, the input for it, such as providing weights for experts or estimating other parameters, is imperfect owing to a lack of omniscience. Aggregation methods for expert opinions have existed for over thirty years; yet many of the difficulties with their use remain unresolved. The bulk of these problem areas are summarized in the sections that follow: sensitivities of results to assumptions, weights for experts, correlation of experts, and handling uncertainties. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the sources of these problems and describe their effects on aggregation.

  2. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  3. Sherlock Holmes: an expert's view of expertise.

    PubMed

    André, Didierjean; Fernand, Gobet

    2008-02-01

    In recent years, there has been an intense research effort to understand the cognitive processes and structures underlying expert behaviour. Work in different fields, including scientific domains, sports, games and mnemonics, has shown that there are vast differences in perceptual abilities between experts and novices, and that these differences may underpin other cognitive differences in learning, memory and problem solving. In this article, we evaluate the progress made in the last years through the eyes of an outstanding, albeit fictional, expert: Sherlock Holmes. We first use the Sherlock Holmes character to illustrate expert processes as described by current research and theories. In particular, the role of perception, as well as the nature and influence of expert knowledge, are all present in the description of Conan Doyle's hero. In the second part of the article, we discuss a number of issues that current research on expertise has barely addressed. These gaps include, for example, several forms of reasoning, the influence of emotions on cognition, and the effect of age on experts' knowledge and cognitive processes. Thus, although nearly 120-year-old, Conan Doyle's books show remarkable illustrations of expert behaviour, including the coverage of themes that have mostly been overlooked by current research.

  4. Transferring Knowledge: A Parallel between Teaching Chemical Engineering and Developing Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roberge, P. R.

    1990-01-01

    Discussed are expert systems development and teaching, the representation and processing of knowledge, knowledge representation in chemical engineering, and expert systems in chemical engineering. The seven phases of expert system development are illustrated. (CW)

  5. Nickel hydrogen battery expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shiva, Sajjan G.

    1991-01-01

    The Hubble Telescope Battery Testbed at MSFC uses the Nickel Cadmium (NiCd) Battery Expert System (NICBES-2) which supports the evaluation of performance of Hubble Telescope spacecraft batteries and provides alarm diagnosis and action advice. NICBES-2 provides a reasoning system along with a battery domain knowledge base to achieve this battery health management function. An effort is summarized which was used to modify NICBES-2 to accommodate Nickel Hydrogen (NiH2) battery environment now in MSFC testbed. The NICBES-2 is implemented on a Sun Microsystem and is written in SunOS C and Quintus Prolog. The system now operates in a multitasking environment. NICBES-2 spawns three processes: serial port process (SPP); data handler process (DHP); and the expert system process (ESP) in order to process the telemetry data and provide the status and action advice. NICBES-2 performs orbit data gathering, data evaluation, alarm diagnosis and action advice and status and history display functions. The adaptation of NICBES-2 to work with NiH2 battery environment required modification to all of the three component processes.

  6. Statistical Fault Detection & Diagnosis Expert System

    1996-12-18

    STATMON is an expert system that performs real-time fault detection and diagnosis of redundant sensors in any industrial process requiring high reliability. After a training period performed during normal operation, the expert system monitors the statistical properties of the incoming signals using a pattern recognition test. If the test determines that statistical properties of the signals have changed, the expert system performs a sequence of logical steps to determine which sensor or machine component hasmore » degraded.« less

  7. Expert systems for Space Station automation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Georgeff, M. P.; Firschein, O.

    1985-01-01

    The expert systems required for automating key functions of the Manned Space Station (MSS) are explored. It is necessary that the expert systems developed be flexible, degrade gracefully in the case of a failure, and be able to work with incomplete data. The AI systems will have to perform interpretation and diagnosis, design, prediction and induction, and monitoring and control functions. Both quantitative and qualitative reasoning capabilities need improvements, as do automatic verification techniques, explanation and learning capabilities, and the use of metaknowledge, i. e., knowledge about the knowledge contained in the knowledge base. Information retrieval, fault isolation and manufacturing process control demonstrations are needed to validate expert systems for the MSS.

  8. Expert systems and ballistic range data analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hathaway, Wayne; Steinhoff, Mark; Whyte, Robert; Brown, David; Choate, Jeff; Adelgren, Russ

    1992-07-01

    A program aimed at the development of an expert system for the reduction of ballistic range data is described. The program applies expert system and artificial intelligence techniques to develop a mathematically complex state-of-the-art spark range data reduction procedure that includes linear theory and six-degree-of-freedom analysis. The scope of the knowledge base includes both spin and statically stable vehicles. The expert system is expected to improve the quality of the data reduction process while reducing the work load on the senior range engineer.

  9. Autonomous power expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walters, Jerry L.; Petrik, Edward J.; Roth, Mary Ellen; Truong, Long Van; Quinn, Todd; Krawczonek, Walter M.

    1990-01-01

    The Autonomous Power Expert (APEX) system was designed to monitor and diagnose fault conditions that occur within the Space Station Freedom Electrical Power System (SSF/EPS) Testbed. APEX is designed to interface with SSF/EPS testbed power management controllers to provide enhanced autonomous operation and control capability. The APEX architecture consists of three components: (1) a rule-based expert system, (2) a testbed data acquisition interface, and (3) a power scheduler interface. Fault detection, fault isolation, justification of probable causes, recommended actions, and incipient fault analysis are the main functions of the expert system component. The data acquisition component requests and receives pertinent parametric values from the EPS testbed and asserts the values into a knowledge base. Power load profile information is obtained from a remote scheduler through the power scheduler interface component. The current APEX design and development work is discussed. Operation and use of APEX by way of the user interface screens is also covered.

  10. Expert Cold Structure Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atkins, T.; Demuysere, P.

    2011-05-01

    The EXPERT Program is funded by ESA. The objective of the EXPERT mission is to perform a sub-orbital flight during which measurements of critical aero- thermodynamic phenomena will be obtained by using state-of-the-art instrumentation. As part of the EXPERT Flight Segment, the responsibility of the Cold Structure Development Design, Manufacturing and Validation was committed to the Belgian industrial team SONACA/SABCA. The EXPERT Cold Structure includes the Launcher Adapter, the Bottom Panel, the Upper Panel, two Cross Panels and the Parachute Bay. An additional Launcher Adapter was manufactured for the separation tests. The selected assembly definition and manufacturing technologies ( machined parts and sandwich panels) were dictated classically by the mass and stiffness, but also by the CoG location and the sensitive separation interface. Used as support for the various on-board equipment, the Cold Structure is fixed to but thermally uncoupled from the PM 1000 thermal shield. It is protect on its bottom panel by a thermal blanket. As it is a protoflight, analysis was the main tool for the verification. Low level stiffness and modal analysis tests have also been performed on the Cold Structure equipped with its ballast. It allowed to complete its qualification and to prepare SONACA/SABCA support for the system dynamic tests foreseen in 2011. The structure was finally coated with a thermal control black painting and delivered on time to Thales Alenia Space-Italy end of March 201.

  11. Computers Simulate Human Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roberts, Steven K.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses recent progress in artificial intelligence in such narrowly defined areas as medical and electronic diagnosis. Also discusses use of expert systems, man-machine communication problems, novel programing environments (including comments on LISP and LISP machines), and types of knowledge used (factual, heuristic, and meta-knowledge). (JN)

  12. Expert Systems Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duda, Richard O.; Shortliffe, Edward H.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses a class of artificial intelligence computer programs (often called "expert systems" because they address problems normally thought to require human specialists for their solution) intended to serve as consultants for decision making. Also discusses accomplishments (including information systematization in medical diagnosis and geology)…

  13. Robot environment expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Potter, J. L.

    1985-01-01

    The Robot Environment Expert System uses a hexidecimal tree data structure to model a complex robot environment where not only the robot arm moves, but also the robot itself and other objects may move. The hextree model allows dynamic updating, collision avoidance and path planning over time, to avoid moving objects.

  14. Eliciting Design Patterns for E-Learning Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Retalis, Symeon; Georgiakakis, Petros; Dimitriadis, Yannis

    2006-01-01

    Design pattern creation, especially in the e-learning domain, is a highly complex process that has not been sufficiently studied and formalized. In this paper, we propose a systematic pattern development cycle, whose most important aspects focus on reverse engineering of existing systems in order to elicit features that are cross-validated through…

  15. Photo-Elicitation: Reflexivity on Method, Analysis, and Graphic Portraits

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richard, Veronica M.; Lahman, Maria K. E.

    2015-01-01

    In this methodological discussion, the authors detail and reflect on the processes of using photo-elicitation interviewing as a way to align with positive qualitative methodologies, to gain access to participant beliefs and values, and to highlight participant voices through their choices of words and visuals. A review of the literature and an…

  16. Diet expert subsystem for CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yendler, Boris S.; Nguyen, Thoi K.; Waleh, Ahmad

    1991-01-01

    An account is given of the mathematical basis of a diet-controlling expert system, designated 'Ceres' for the human crews of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). The Ceres methodology can furnish both steady-state and dynamic diet solutions; the differences between Ceres and a conventional nutritional-modeling method is illustrated by the case of a three-component, potato-wheat-soybean food system. Attention is given to the role of food processing in furnishing flexibility in diet-planning management. Crew diet solutions based on simple optimizations are not necessarily the most suitable for optimum CELSS operation.

  17. Integrating Expert Knowledge with Data in Bayesian Networks: Preserving Data-Driven Expectations when the Expert Variables Remain Unobserved

    PubMed Central

    Constantinou, Anthony Costa; Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin

    2016-01-01

    When developing a causal probabilistic model, i.e. a Bayesian network (BN), it is common to incorporate expert knowledge of factors that are important for decision analysis but where historical data are unavailable or difficult to obtain. This paper focuses on the problem whereby the distribution of some continuous variable in a BN is known from data, but where we wish to explicitly model the impact of some additional expert variable (for which there is expert judgment but no data). Because the statistical outcomes are already influenced by the causes an expert might identify as variables missing from the dataset, the incentive here is to add the expert factor to the model in such a way that the distribution of the data variable is preserved when the expert factor remains unobserved. We provide a method for eliciting expert judgment that ensures the expected values of a data variable are preserved under all the known conditions. We show that it is generally neither possible, nor realistic, to preserve the variance of the data variable, but we provide a method towards determining the accuracy of expertise in terms of the extent to which the variability of the revised empirical distribution is minimised. We also describe how to incorporate the assessment of extremely rare or previously unobserved events. PMID:27378822

  18. Expert system for web based collaborative CAE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hou, Liang; Lin, Zusheng

    2006-11-01

    An expert system for web based collaborative CAE was developed based on knowledge engineering, relational database and commercial FEA (Finite element analysis) software. The architecture of the system was illustrated. In this system, the experts' experiences, theories and typical examples and other related knowledge, which will be used in the stage of pre-process in FEA, were categorized into analysis process and object knowledge. Then, the integrated knowledge model based on object-oriented method and rule based method was described. The integrated reasoning process based on CBR (case based reasoning) and rule based reasoning was presented. Finally, the analysis process of this expert system in web based CAE application was illustrated, and an analysis example of a machine tool's column was illustrated to prove the validity of the system.

  19. Developing an Expert System for Nursing Practice

    PubMed Central

    Ozbolt, Judy G.; Schultz, Samuel; Swain, Mary Ann P.; Abraham, Ivo L.; Farchaus-Stein, Karen

    1984-01-01

    The American Nurses' Association has set eight Standards of Nursing Practice related to the nursing process. Computer-aided information systems intended to facilitate the nursing process must be designed to promote adherence to these professional standards. For each of the eight standards, the paper tells how a hypothetical expert system could help nurses to meet the standard. A prototype of such an expert system is being developed. The paper describes issues in conceptualizing clinical decision-making and developing decision strategies for the prototype system. The process of developing the prototype system is described.

  20. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  1. ALICE Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionita, C.; Carena, F.

    2014-06-01

    The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period.

  2. Photo-Elicitation and Visual Semiotics: A Unique Methodology for Studying Inclusion for Children with Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stockall, Nancy

    2013-01-01

    The methodology in this paper discusses the use of photographs as an elicitation strategy that can reveal the thinking processes of participants in a qualitatively rich manner. Photo-elicitation techniques combined with a Piercian semiotic perspective offer a unique method for creating a frame of action for later participant analysis. Illustrative…

  3. Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

    2016-09-01

    Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

  4. Expert and Knowledge Based Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Demaid, Adrian; Edwards, Lyndon

    1987-01-01

    Discusses the nature and current state of knowledge-based systems and expert systems. Describes an expert system from the viewpoints of a computer programmer and an applications expert. Addresses concerns related to materials selection and forecasts future developments in the teaching of materials engineering. (ML)

  5. Expert Systems and Special Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hofmeister, Alan M.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    1986-01-01

    The article discusses the characteristics of expert systems (computer programs designed to replicate human expertise in a variety of areas), describes recently available expert system development tools, suggests applications within the field of special education, and reviews recent efforts to apply expert systems technology to special education…

  6. Expert systems development and application

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duke, E. L.; Regenie, V. A.

    1985-01-01

    Current research in the application of expert systems to problems in the flight research environment is discussed. In what is anticipated to be a broad research area, a real time expert system flight status monitor has been identified as the initial project. This real time expert system flight status monitor is described in terms of concept, application, development, and schedule.

  7. The imported forensic expert

    SciTech Connect

    Larson, C.P.

    1980-09-01

    A review of the experiences of one of the pioneer forensic pathologists in the United States offers an interesting insight into the possibilities of private forensic pathology in America. The author's experience includes serving as President of the National Boxing Association and the International Boxing Association, during which time he made many improvements in ring safety. His research into several areas of cases of product liability offer an insight to the wide scope of the potential of the forensic expert. This presentation reviews his activities in realms widely afield from medicine.

  8. The psychiatric expert in court.

    PubMed

    Kenny, A

    1984-05-01

    The law about expert evidence is unsatisfactory: it gives scope for the expert to usurp the role of judge, jury and parliament; it brings the professions of the experts into disrepute; and it sets juries the impossible task of sorting pseudo sciences from genuine ones. The law should be reformed by changing statutes which force expert witnesses to testify beyond their science, by taking the provision of expert evidence out of the adversarial context, and by removing from the courts the decision whether a nascent discipline is or is not a science.

  9. Overproduction timing errors in expert dancers.

    PubMed

    Minvielle-Moncla, Joëlle; Audiffren, Michel; Macar, Françoise; Vallet, Cécile

    2008-07-01

    The authors investigated how expert dancers achieve accurate timing under various conditions. They designed the conditions to interfere with the dancers' attention to time and to test the explanation of the interference effect provided in the attentional model of time processing. Participants were 17 expert contemporary dancers who performed a freely chosen duration while walking and executing a bilateral cyclic arm movement over a given distance. The dancers reproduced that duration in different situations of interference. The process yielded temporal overproductions, validating the attentional model and extending its application to expert populations engaged in complex motor situations. The finding that the greatest overproduction occurred in the transfer-with-improvisation condition suggests that improvisation within a time deadline requires specific training.

  10. The Principles of Designing an Expert System in Teaching Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salekhova, Lailya; Nurgaliev, Albert; Zaripova, Rinata; Khakimullina, Nailya

    2013-01-01

    This study reveals general didactic concepts of the Expert Systems (ES) development process in the educational area. The proof of concept is based on the example of teaching the 8th grade Algebra subject. The main contribution in this work is the implementation of innovative approaches in analysis and processing of data by expert system as well as…

  11. How experts gain influence.

    PubMed

    Mikes, Anette; Hall, Matthew; Millo, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    In theory, the risk management groups of two British banks--Saxon and Anglo--had the same influence in their organizations. But in practice, they did not: Saxon's was engaged in critical work throughout the bank, while Anglo's had little visibility outside its areas of expertise. In their study of these two financial institutions, the authors identified four competencies--trailblazing, toolmaking, teamwork, and translation--that help functional leaders or groups compete for top management's limited attention and increase their impact. Anglo's risk managers were strong in only some of the competencies, but Saxon's were strong in all four. They consistently scanned the internal and external environment for important issues to which they could apply a risk management perspective (trailblazing) and then developed tools--such as quarterly risk reports--that spread their expertise (toolmaking). While controlling the tools' design and implementation, the risk managers incorporated business managers' insights (teamwork) and made sure everyone could understand the findings (translation). Ultimately, experts' roles must fit the organization's strategy and structural needs. In some situations, functional experts can raise their profile by cultivating just two of the competencies. But those who are strong in all four are likely to be the most influential. PMID:24730171

  12. How experts gain influence.

    PubMed

    Mikes, Anette; Hall, Matthew; Millo, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    In theory, the risk management groups of two British banks--Saxon and Anglo--had the same influence in their organizations. But in practice, they did not: Saxon's was engaged in critical work throughout the bank, while Anglo's had little visibility outside its areas of expertise. In their study of these two financial institutions, the authors identified four competencies--trailblazing, toolmaking, teamwork, and translation--that help functional leaders or groups compete for top management's limited attention and increase their impact. Anglo's risk managers were strong in only some of the competencies, but Saxon's were strong in all four. They consistently scanned the internal and external environment for important issues to which they could apply a risk management perspective (trailblazing) and then developed tools--such as quarterly risk reports--that spread their expertise (toolmaking). While controlling the tools' design and implementation, the risk managers incorporated business managers' insights (teamwork) and made sure everyone could understand the findings (translation). Ultimately, experts' roles must fit the organization's strategy and structural needs. In some situations, functional experts can raise their profile by cultivating just two of the competencies. But those who are strong in all four are likely to be the most influential.

  13. Auditory memory function in expert chess players

    PubMed Central

    Fattahi, Fariba; Geshani, Ahmad; Jafari, Zahra; Jalaie, Shohreh; Salman Mahini, Mona

    2015-01-01

    Background: Chess is a game that involves many aspects of high level cognition such as memory, attention, focus and problem solving. Long term practice of chess can improve cognition performances and behavioral skills. Auditory memory, as a kind of memory, can be influenced by strengthening processes following long term chess playing like other behavioral skills because of common processing pathways in the brain. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the auditory memory function of expert chess players using the Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test. Methods: The Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test was performed for 30 expert chess players aged 20-35 years and 30 non chess players who were matched by different conditions; the participants in both groups were randomly selected. The performance of the two groups was compared by independent samples t-test using SPSS version 21. Results: The mean score of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test between the two groups, expert chess players and non-chess players, revealed a significant difference (p≤ 0.001). The difference between the ears scores for expert chess players (p= 0.023) and non-chess players (p= 0.013) was significant. Gender had no effect on the test results. Conclusion: Auditory memory function in expert chess players was significantly better compared to non-chess players. It seems that increased auditory memory function is related to strengthening cognitive performances due to playing chess for a long time. PMID:26793666

  14. Basic emotions elicited by odors and pictures.

    PubMed

    Croy, Ilona; Olgun, Selda; Joraschky, Peter

    2011-12-01

    The sense of olfaction is often reported to have a special relationship with emotional processing. Memories triggered by olfactory cues often have a very emotional load. On the other hand, basic negative or positive emotional states should be sufficient to cover the most significant functions of the olfactory system including ingestion, hazard avoidance, and social communication. Thus, we investigated whether different basic emotions can be evoked in healthy people through the sense of olfaction. We asked 119 participants which odor evokes one of the six basic emotions (happiness, disgust, anger, anxiety, sadness, and surprise); another 97 participants were asked about pictures evoking those emotions. The results showed that almost every participant could name an olfactory elicitor for happiness or disgust. Olfactory elicitors of anxiety were reported less frequently, but they were still reported by three-quarters of the participants. However, for sadness and anger only about half of the participants reported an olfactory elicitor, whereas significantly more named a visual cue. Olfactory emotion elicitors were mainly related to the classes of culture, plants, and food, and visual emotion elicitors were largely related to humans. This data supports the hypothesis that in the vast majority of people, few differentiated emotions can be elicited through the olfactory channel. These emotions are happiness, disgust, and anxiety.

  15. The SIGNAL expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Struve, R.

    1996-12-31

    The SIGNAL insurance companies have developed an expert system for the support of its customer sales service. It was introduced at the end of 1993 and is currently used by approximately 500 customer service representatives. It involves a counseling system, which enables customer sales personnel to produce high-quality benefit analyses at the point of sale. It is not only an information system for the agent but involves the customer in an active role (through the implementation of sales talks, the conscious visualization of facts, the generation of natural language explanations etc.). Thus, the customer is not faced with a fait accompli but is actively involved in solving the problem. To meet these requirements, several Al techniques are used, as described further below. The application has increased sales efficiency, optimized customer contact time and decreased training requirements. The system is developed with KEE (and reimplemented in Allegro CL/PC) and runs on notebooks with 8 MB RAM.

  16. Using Expert Systems To Build Cognitive Simulations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jonassen, David H.; Wang, Sherwood

    2003-01-01

    Cognitive simulations are runnable computer programs for modeling human cognitive activities. A case study is reported where expert systems were used as a formalism for modeling metacognitive processes in a seminar. Building cognitive simulations engages intensive introspection, ownership and meaning making in learners who build them. (Author/AEF)

  17. Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

  18. Expert Systems as Tools for Technical Communicators.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grider, Daryl A.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses expertise, what an expert system is, what an expert system shell is, what expert systems can and cannot do, knowledge engineering and technical communicators, and planning and managing expert system projects. (SR)

  19. Three CLIPS-based expert systems for solving engineering problems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, W. J.; Luger, G. F.; Bretz, R. E.

    1990-01-01

    We have written three expert systems, using the CLIPS PC-based expert system shell. These three expert systems are rule based and are relatively small, with the largest containing slightly less than 200 rules. The first expert system is an expert assistant that was written to help users of the ASPEN computer code choose the proper thermodynamic package to use with their particular vapor-liquid equilibrium problem. The second expert system was designed to help petroleum engineers choose the proper enhanced oil recovery method to be used with a given reservoir. The effectiveness of each technique is highly dependent upon the reservoir conditions. The third expert system is a combination consultant and control system. This system was designed specifically for silicon carbide whisker growth. Silicon carbide whiskers are an extremely strong product used to make ceramic and metal composites. The manufacture of whiskers is a very complicated process. which to date. has defied a good mathematical model. The process was run by experts who had gained their expertise by trial and error. A system of rules was devised by these experts both for procedure setup and for the process control. In this paper we discuss the three problem areas of the design, development and evaluation of the CLIPS-based programs.

  20. An Expert Assistant for Computer Aided Parallelization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jost, Gabriele; Chun, Robert; Jin, Haoqiang; Labarta, Jesus; Gimenez, Judit

    2004-01-01

    The prototype implementation of an expert system was developed to assist the user in the computer aided parallelization process. The system interfaces to tools for automatic parallelization and performance analysis. By fusing static program structure information and dynamic performance analysis data the expert system can help the user to filter, correlate, and interpret the data gathered by the existing tools. Sections of the code that show poor performance and require further attention are rapidly identified and suggestions for improvements are presented to the user. In this paper we describe the components of the expert system and discuss its interface to the existing tools. We present a case study to demonstrate the successful use in full scale scientific applications.

  1. Expert system for scheduling simulation lab sessions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lund, Chet

    1990-01-01

    Implementation and results of an expert system used for scheduling session requests for the Systems Engineering Simulator (SES) laboratory at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) are discussed. Weekly session requests are received from astronaut crew trainers, procedures developers, engineering assessment personnel, software developers, and various others who wish to access the computers, scene generators, and other simulation equipment available to them in the SES lab. The expert system under discussion is comprised of a data acquisition portion - two Pascal programs run on a personal computer - and a CLIPS program installed on a minicomputer. A brief introduction to the SES lab and its scheduling background is given. A general overview of the system is provided, followed by a detailed description of the constraint-reduction process and of the scheduler itself. Results from a ten-week trial period using this approach are discussed. Finally, a summary of the expert system's strengths and shortcomings are provided.

  2. How Expert Advice Influences Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Meshi, Dar; Biele, Guido; Korn, Christoph W.; Heekeren, Hauke R.

    2012-01-01

    People often use expert advice when making decisions in our society, but how we are influenced by this advice has yet to be understood. To address this, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we provided expert and novice advice to participants during an estimation task. Participants reported that they valued expert advice more than novice advice, and activity in the ventral striatum correlated with this valuation, even before decisions with the advice were made. When using advice, participants compared their initial opinion to their advisor’s opinion. This comparison, termed the “opinion difference”, influenced advice utilization and was represented in reward-sensitive brain regions. Finally, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex integrated both the size of the opinion difference and the advisor’s level of expertise, and average activity in this area correlated with mean advice utilization across participants. Taken together, these findings provide neural evidence for how advice engenders behavioral change during the decision-making process. PMID:23185425

  3. Toward disaster-resilient cities: characterizing resilience of infrastructure systems with expert judgments.

    PubMed

    Chang, Stephanie E; McDaniels, Timothy; Fox, Jana; Dhariwal, Rajan; Longstaff, Holly

    2014-03-01

    Resilient infrastructure systems are essential for cities to withstand and rapidly recover from natural and human-induced disasters, yet electric power, transportation, and other infrastructures are highly vulnerable and interdependent. New approaches for characterizing the resilience of sets of infrastructure systems are urgently needed, at community and regional scales. This article develops a practical approach for analysts to characterize a community's infrastructure vulnerability and resilience in disasters. It addresses key challenges of incomplete incentives, partial information, and few opportunities for learning. The approach is demonstrated for Metro Vancouver, Canada, in the context of earthquake and flood risk. The methodological approach is practical and focuses on potential disruptions to infrastructure services. In spirit, it resembles probability elicitation with multiple experts; however, it elicits disruption and recovery over time, rather than uncertainties regarding system function at a given point in time. It develops information on regional infrastructure risk and engages infrastructure organizations in the process. Information sharing, iteration, and learning among the participants provide the basis for more informed estimates of infrastructure system robustness and recovery that incorporate the potential for interdependent failures after an extreme event. Results demonstrate the vital importance of cross-sectoral communication to develop shared understanding of regional infrastructure disruption in disasters. For Vancouver, specific results indicate that in a hypothetical M7.3 earthquake, virtually all infrastructures would suffer severe disruption of service in the immediate aftermath, with many experiencing moderate disruption two weeks afterward. Electric power, land transportation, and telecommunications are identified as core infrastructure sectors.

  4. Metaphors of Distress: Photo-Elicitation Enhances a Discourse Analysis of Parents' Accounts.

    PubMed

    Kantrowitz-Gordon, Ira; Vandermause, Roxanne

    2016-07-01

    In research on sensitive topics, photo-elicitation can be a profound aid to data collection and interpretation processes. Photo-elicitation methods were used in this manner in a discourse analysis of parents' distress at least 6 months after preterm birth. After an initial interview, participants were asked to take digital photographs representing their distress and to return for a second interview to discuss the photographs. The elicited photo representations supported participants' engagement with their current or past distress and generated new meanings from the reappraisal of old photographs. Photo-elicitation demonstrated the embodiment of parents' distress in the child and the placement of distress in specific locations. Photographs of documents showed the power of the written word in generating and maintaining distress. Participants used existing photographs from their child's photo history to generate rich metaphors for their distress as parents. These findings have implications for enhancing interpretive health research by incorporating photo-elicitation methods. PMID:25792488

  5. Metaphors of Distress: Photo-Elicitation Enhances a Discourse Analysis of Parents' Accounts.

    PubMed

    Kantrowitz-Gordon, Ira; Vandermause, Roxanne

    2016-07-01

    In research on sensitive topics, photo-elicitation can be a profound aid to data collection and interpretation processes. Photo-elicitation methods were used in this manner in a discourse analysis of parents' distress at least 6 months after preterm birth. After an initial interview, participants were asked to take digital photographs representing their distress and to return for a second interview to discuss the photographs. The elicited photo representations supported participants' engagement with their current or past distress and generated new meanings from the reappraisal of old photographs. Photo-elicitation demonstrated the embodiment of parents' distress in the child and the placement of distress in specific locations. Photographs of documents showed the power of the written word in generating and maintaining distress. Participants used existing photographs from their child's photo history to generate rich metaphors for their distress as parents. These findings have implications for enhancing interpretive health research by incorporating photo-elicitation methods.

  6. Comparison of elicitation methods for moral and affective beliefs in the theory of planned behaviour.

    PubMed

    Dean, M; Arvola, A; Vassallo, M; Lähteenmäki, L; Raats, M M; Saba, A; Shepherd, R

    2006-09-01

    Although the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) has been applied successfully in the area of food choice, it has been criticized for its pure utilitarian approach to the factors determining behaviour. Despite the increase in predictive power of the model with added components such as affective attitude and moral and ethical concerns, in most studies the elicitation process still only addresses people's utilitarian beliefs about the behaviour with little attention paid to other aspects. This study compares the traditional method of elicitation of advantages and disadvantages with two other methods (word association and open-ended) in the elicitations of beliefs, attitudes and moral concerns in relation to the consumption of organic foods. Results show the traditional method to be best for eliciting cognitive beliefs, open-ended emotion task for eliciting emotional beliefs and open-ended beliefs task best for moral concerns. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed. PMID:16782230

  7. Deploying expert systems in Ada

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S. Daniel; Allen, Bradley P.

    1989-01-01

    As the Department of Defense Ada mandate begins to be enforced actively, interest in deploying expert systems in Ada has increased. A prototype Ada based expert system tool is introduced called ART/Ada. This prototype was built to support research into the language and operational issues of expert systems in Ada. ART/Ada allows applications of a conventional expert system tool called ART-IM (Automated Reasoning Tool for Information Management) to be deployed in various Ada environments with efficient use of time and space. ART-IM, a C-based expert system tool, is used to generate Ada source code which is compiled and linked with an Ada base inference engine to produce an Ada executable image. ART/Ada will be used to implement several prototype expert systems for the Space Station Freedom Program testbeds.

  8. Stereoscopy Amplifies Emotions Elicited by Facial Expressions

    PubMed Central

    Kätsyri, Jari; Häkkinen, Jukka

    2015-01-01

    Mediated facial expressions do not elicit emotions as strongly as real-life facial expressions, possibly due to the low fidelity of pictorial presentations in typical mediation technologies. In the present study, we investigated the extent to which stereoscopy amplifies emotions elicited by images of neutral, angry, and happy facial expressions. The emotional self-reports of positive and negative valence (which were evaluated separately) and arousal of 40 participants were recorded. The magnitude of perceived depth in the stereoscopic images was manipulated by varying the camera base at 15, 40, 65, 90, and 115 mm. The analyses controlled for participants’ gender, gender match, emotional empathy, and trait alexithymia. The results indicated that stereoscopy significantly amplified the negative valence and arousal elicited by angry expressions at the most natural (65 mm) camera base, whereas stereoscopy amplified the positive valence elicited by happy expressions in both the narrowed and most natural (15–65 mm) base conditions. Overall, the results indicate that stereoscopy amplifies the emotions elicited by mediated emotional facial expressions when the depth geometry is close to natural. The findings highlight the sensitivity of the visual system to depth and its effect on emotions. PMID:27551358

  9. Stereoscopy Amplifies Emotions Elicited by Facial Expressions.

    PubMed

    Hakala, Jussi; Kätsyri, Jari; Häkkinen, Jukka

    2015-12-01

    Mediated facial expressions do not elicit emotions as strongly as real-life facial expressions, possibly due to the low fidelity of pictorial presentations in typical mediation technologies. In the present study, we investigated the extent to which stereoscopy amplifies emotions elicited by images of neutral, angry, and happy facial expressions. The emotional self-reports of positive and negative valence (which were evaluated separately) and arousal of 40 participants were recorded. The magnitude of perceived depth in the stereoscopic images was manipulated by varying the camera base at 15, 40, 65, 90, and 115 mm. The analyses controlled for participants' gender, gender match, emotional empathy, and trait alexithymia. The results indicated that stereoscopy significantly amplified the negative valence and arousal elicited by angry expressions at the most natural (65 mm) camera base, whereas stereoscopy amplified the positive valence elicited by happy expressions in both the narrowed and most natural (15-65 mm) base conditions. Overall, the results indicate that stereoscopy amplifies the emotions elicited by mediated emotional facial expressions when the depth geometry is close to natural. The findings highlight the sensitivity of the visual system to depth and its effect on emotions. PMID:27551358

  10. Stereoscopy Amplifies Emotions Elicited by Facial Expressions.

    PubMed

    Hakala, Jussi; Kätsyri, Jari; Häkkinen, Jukka

    2015-12-01

    Mediated facial expressions do not elicit emotions as strongly as real-life facial expressions, possibly due to the low fidelity of pictorial presentations in typical mediation technologies. In the present study, we investigated the extent to which stereoscopy amplifies emotions elicited by images of neutral, angry, and happy facial expressions. The emotional self-reports of positive and negative valence (which were evaluated separately) and arousal of 40 participants were recorded. The magnitude of perceived depth in the stereoscopic images was manipulated by varying the camera base at 15, 40, 65, 90, and 115 mm. The analyses controlled for participants' gender, gender match, emotional empathy, and trait alexithymia. The results indicated that stereoscopy significantly amplified the negative valence and arousal elicited by angry expressions at the most natural (65 mm) camera base, whereas stereoscopy amplified the positive valence elicited by happy expressions in both the narrowed and most natural (15-65 mm) base conditions. Overall, the results indicate that stereoscopy amplifies the emotions elicited by mediated emotional facial expressions when the depth geometry is close to natural. The findings highlight the sensitivity of the visual system to depth and its effect on emotions.

  11. Information/Knowledge Acquisition Methods for Decision Support Systems and Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Heng-Li

    1995-01-01

    Compares information requirement-elicitation (IRE) methods for decision support systems (DSS) with knowledge acquisition (KA) methods for expert systems (ES) development. The definition and architectures of ES and DSS are compared and the systems' development cycles and IRE/KA methods are discussed. Differences are noted between ES and DSS…

  12. Developing Research Priorities with a Cohort of Higher Education for Sustainability Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Tarah S. A.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the results of a Delphi exercise used at the Halifax Consultation in which 35 experts representing 17 countries gathered to develop research priorities for the emerging field of higher education for sustainability (HES). Design/methodology/approach: The Delphi technique was used to elicit the…

  13. Assessing cumulative impacts of forest development on the distribution of furbearers using expert-based habitat modeling.

    PubMed

    Bridger, M C; Johnson, C J; Gillingham, M P

    2016-03-01

    Cumulative impacts of anthropogenic landscape change must be considered when managing and conserving wildlife habitat. Across the central-interior of British Columbia, Canada, industrial activities are altering the habitat of furbearer species. This region has witnessed unprecedented levels of anthropogenic landscape change following rapid development in a number of resource sectors, particularly forestry. Our objective was to create expert-based habitat models for three furbearer species: fisher (Pekania pennanti), Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), and American marten (Martes americana) and quantify habitat change for those species. We recruited 10 biologist and 10 trapper experts and then used the analytical hierarchy process to elicit expert knowledge of habitat variables important to each species. We applied the models to reference landscapes (i.e., registered traplines) in two distinct study areas and then quantified the change in habitat availability from 1990 to 2013. There was strong agreement between expert groups in the choice of habitat variables and associated scores. Where anthropogenic impacts had increased considerably over the study period, the habitat models showed substantial declines in habitat availability for each focal species (78% decline in optimal fisher habitat, 83% decline in optimal lynx habitat, and 79% decline in optimal marten habitat). For those traplines with relatively little forest harvesting, the habitat models showed no substantial change in the availability of habitat over time. The results suggest that habitat for these three furbearer species declined significantly as a result of the cumulative impacts of forest harvesting. Results of this study illustrate the utility of expert knowledge for understanding large-scale patterns of habitat change over long time periods.

  14. Assessing cumulative impacts of forest development on the distribution of furbearers using expert-based habitat modeling.

    PubMed

    Bridger, M C; Johnson, C J; Gillingham, M P

    2016-03-01

    Cumulative impacts of anthropogenic landscape change must be considered when managing and conserving wildlife habitat. Across the central-interior of British Columbia, Canada, industrial activities are altering the habitat of furbearer species. This region has witnessed unprecedented levels of anthropogenic landscape change following rapid development in a number of resource sectors, particularly forestry. Our objective was to create expert-based habitat models for three furbearer species: fisher (Pekania pennanti), Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), and American marten (Martes americana) and quantify habitat change for those species. We recruited 10 biologist and 10 trapper experts and then used the analytical hierarchy process to elicit expert knowledge of habitat variables important to each species. We applied the models to reference landscapes (i.e., registered traplines) in two distinct study areas and then quantified the change in habitat availability from 1990 to 2013. There was strong agreement between expert groups in the choice of habitat variables and associated scores. Where anthropogenic impacts had increased considerably over the study period, the habitat models showed substantial declines in habitat availability for each focal species (78% decline in optimal fisher habitat, 83% decline in optimal lynx habitat, and 79% decline in optimal marten habitat). For those traplines with relatively little forest harvesting, the habitat models showed no substantial change in the availability of habitat over time. The results suggest that habitat for these three furbearer species declined significantly as a result of the cumulative impacts of forest harvesting. Results of this study illustrate the utility of expert knowledge for understanding large-scale patterns of habitat change over long time periods. PMID:27209791

  15. ESG - EXPERT SCRIPT GENERATOR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, E. G.

    1994-01-01

    The Automation Technology Branch of NASA's Langley Research Center is employing increasingly complex degrees of operator/robot cooperation (telerobotics). A good relationship between the operator and computer is essential for smooth performance by a telerobotic system. ESG (Expert Script Generator) is a software package that automatically generates high-level task objective commands from the NASA Intelligent Systems Research Lab's (ISRL's) complex menu-driven language. ESG reduces errors and makes the telerobotics lab accessible to researchers who are not familiar with the comprehensive language developed by ISRL for interacting with the various systems of the ISRL testbed. ESG incorporates expert system technology to capture the typical rules of operation that a skilled operator would use. The result is an operator interface which optimizes the system's capability to perform a task remotely in a hazardous environment, in a timely manner, and without undue stress to the operator, while minimizing the chance for operator errors that may damage equipment. The intricate menu-driven command interface which provides for various control modes of both manipulators and their associated sensors in the TeleRobotic System Simulation (TRSS) has a syntax which is both irregular and verbose. ESG eliminates the following two problems with this command "language": 1) knowing the correct command sequence to accomplish a task, and 2) inputting a known command sequence without typos and other errors. ESG serves as an additional layer of interface, working in conjunction with the menu command processor, not supplanting it. By specifying task-level commands, such as GRASP, CONNECT, etc., ESG will generate the appropriate menu elements to accomplish the task. These elements will be collected in a script file which can then be executed by the ISRL menu command processor. In addition, the operator can extend the list of task-level commands to include customized tasks composed of sub

  16. Estimating Production Potentials: Expert Bias in Applied Decision Making

    SciTech Connect

    L. J. Matthews; L. K. Burggraf; W. J. Reece

    1998-10-01

    A study was conducted to evaluate how workers predict manufacturing production potentials given positively and negatively framed information. Findings indicate the existence of a bias toward positive information and suggest that this bias may be reduced with experience but is never the less maintained. Experts err in the same way non experts do in differentially processing negative and positive information. Additionally, both experts and non experts tend to overestimate production potentials in a positive direction. The authors propose that these biases should be addressed with further research including cross domain analyses and consideration in training, workplace design, and human performance modeling.

  17. System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mieg, Harald A.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

  18. Conditioned craving cues elicit an automatic approach tendency.

    PubMed

    Van Gucht, Dinska; Vansteenwegen, Debora; Van den Bergh, Omer; Beckers, Tom

    2008-10-01

    In two experiments, we used a Pavlovian differential conditioning procedure to induce craving for chocolate. As a result of repeated pairing with chocolate intake, initially neutral cues came to elicit an automatic approach tendency in a speeded stimulus-response compatibility reaction time task. This automatic approach tendency, moreover, seemed to be sensitive to manipulations of extinction and renewal in the Pavlovian conditioning procedure. These findings corroborate and extend previous reports of automatic approach tendencies elicited by substance-relevant cues in addiction, while controlling for alternative accounts for such observations. Moreover, our data lend support to and extend learning models of cue-induced craving and addiction. Finally, we argue that the procedure we present here provides an ecologically valid behavioural tool that allows studying processes involved in cue-induced craving, addiction and relapse without relying on verbal report. PMID:18684435

  19. Characterising Uncertainty in Expert Assessments: Encoding Heavily Skewed Judgements

    PubMed Central

    O’Leary, Rebecca A.; Low-Choy, Samantha; Fisher, Rebecca; Mengersen, Kerrie; Caley, M. Julian

    2015-01-01

    When limited or no observed data are available, it is often useful to obtain expert knowledge about parameters of interest, including point estimates and the uncertainty around these values. However, it is vital to elicit this information appropriately in order to obtain valid estimates. This is particularly important when the experts’ uncertainty about these estimates is strongly skewed, for instance when their best estimate is the same as the lowest value they consider possible. Also this is important when interest is in the aggregation of elicited values. In this paper, we compare alternative distributions for describing such estimates. The distributions considered include the lognormal, mirror lognormal, Normal and scaled Beta. The case study presented here involves estimation of the number of species in coral reefs, which requires eliciting counts within broader taxonomic groups, with highly skewed uncertainty estimates. This paper shows substantial gain in using the scaled Beta distribution, compared with Normal or lognormal distributions. We demonstrate that, for this case study on counting species, applying the novel encoding methodology developed in this paper can facilitate the acquisition of more rigorous estimates of (hierarchical) count data and credible bounds. The approach can also be applied to the more general case of enumerating a sampling frame via elicitation. PMID:26517835

  20. The Expert Mathematician. Revised. What Works Clearinghouse Intervention Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    What Works Clearinghouse, 2006

    2006-01-01

    "The Expert Mathematician" is designed to help middle school students develop the thinking processes for mathematical applications and communication. A three-year program of instruction, "The Expert Mathematician" uses a software and consumable print materials package with 196 lessons that teach the "Logo" programming language. Each lesson ranges…

  1. Figuring the World of Designing: Expert Participation in Elementary Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kangas, Kaiju; Seitamaa-Hakkarainen, Pirita; Hakkarainen, Kai

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the present article was to analyze the interaction between elementary students and a professional design expert. The expert was present in the classroom, facilitating a collaborative lamp designing process together with the teacher. Using the notion of "figured worlds" (Holland et al. 1998), we explored how learning could be…

  2. Curricula for Media Literacy Education According to International Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fedorov, Alexander; Levitskaya, Anastasia; Camarero, Emma

    2016-01-01

    The article analyzes the results of the international experts' survey regarding the curriculum of media literacy education, which was administrated by the authors in September-October 2015. The expert panel includes specialists actively involved in the real process of media literacy education in schools, universities and other educational…

  3. The Experiences of Expert Group Work Supervisors: An Exploratory Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Atieno Okech, Jane E.; Rubel, Deborah

    2009-01-01

    Evaluation of group work supervision literature suggests that description of expert group work supervisors' experiences could be useful for expanding existing group work supervision practices and models. This study provided a systematic exploration of the experiences of expert group work supervisors during the supervision process. Results indicate…

  4. Plastic neo-vaginal construction in Mayer-Rokitansky-Küster-Hauser syndrome: an expert opinion paper on the decision-making treatment process

    PubMed Central

    Torres-de la Roche, Luz Angela; Devassy, Rajesh; Gopalakrishnan, Sreelatha; de Wilde, Maya Sophie; Herrmann, Anja; Larbig, Angelika; De Wilde, Rudy Leon

    2016-01-01

    Vaginal agenesis is a congenital anomaly that affects the life of one of each four thousand women around the world. There is a trend that patients request immediate surgical correction, instead of passive vaginal dilatation. Therefore a differentiated counselling should be provided. We present a comparative chart, based on published evidence, with aspect to the available techniques, which will facilitate the decision-making process in the clinical practice. From our point of view, the best results are achieved with techniques that combine the advantages of the minimal-invasive surgery with those derived of the use of peritoneum as covering tissue of the neovagina. Nevertheless there is a lack on interdisciplinary consensus about the best option to restore the physical and sexual quality of life. PMID:26904393

  5. Expert system training and control based on the fuzzy relation matrix

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ren, Jie; Sheridan, T. B.

    1991-01-01

    Fuzzy knowledge, that for which the terms of reference are not crisp but overlapped, seems to characterize human expertise. This can be shown from the fact that an experienced human operator can control some complex plants better than a computer can. Proposed here is fuzzy theory to build a fuzzy expert relation matrix (FERM) from given rules or/and examples, either in linguistic terms or in numerical values to mimic human processes of perception and decision making. The knowledge base is codified in terms of many implicit fuzzy rules. Fuzzy knowledge thus codified may also be compared with explicit rules specified by a human expert. It can also provide a basis for modeling the human operator and allow comparison of what a human operator says to what he does in practice. Two experiments were performed. In the first, control of liquid in a tank, demonstrates how the FERM knowledge base is elicited and trained. The other shows how to use a FERM, build up from linguistic rules, and to control an inverted pendulum without a dynamic model.

  6. An Expert Map of Gambling Risk Perception.

    PubMed

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of the current study was to investigate the moderating or mediating role played by risk perception in decision-making, gambling behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Eleven gambling expert clinicians and researchers completed a semi-structured interview derived from mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Expert interview data was used to construct a comprehensive expert mental model 'map' detailing risk-perception related factors contributing to harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and emergent themes. Findings indicated that experts considered idiosyncratic beliefs among gamblers result in overall underestimates of risk and loss, insufficient prioritization of needs, and planning and implementation of risk management strategies. Additional contextual factors influencing use of risk information (reinforcement and learning; mental states, environmental cues, ambivalence; and socio-cultural and biological variables) acted to shape risk perceptions and increase vulnerabilities to harm or disordered gambling. It was concluded that understanding the nature, extent and processes by which risk perception predisposes an individual to maintain gambling despite adverse consequences can guide the content of preventative educational responsible gambling campaigns.

  7. Expert Systems: Instructional Design Potential.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pollock, Joellyn; Grabinger, R. Scott

    1989-01-01

    Description of the components of expert systems highlights their potential uses in the field of instructional design. Uses of expert systems are described for determining the cost-effectiveness of instructional media; as instructional management aids; as job aids; in helping to diagnose student problems; and as student feedback/evaluation systems.…

  8. Expert Systems in Reference Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

    1989-01-01

    Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

  9. Expert Systems and Special Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hofmeister, Alan M.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    The application of artificial intelligence to the problems of education is examined. One of the most promising areas in artificial intelligence is expert systems technology which engages the user in a problem-solving diaglogue. Some of the characteristics that make expert systems "intelligent" are identified and exemplified. The rise of expert…

  10. Energy Policy: Ask the Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nuclear Industry, 1991

    1991-01-01

    Twelve U.S. experts on energy policies individually offer perspectives about which priorities should be enlisted with respect to the current energy policy of the United States. In their analyses, these experts unanimously agree that the biggest U.S. problem is an increasing dependence upon imported oil. (JJK)

  11. Expert Systems and Document Handling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edmonds, Ernest

    1987-01-01

    Describes significant attributes of expert systems, contrasts them to conventional computer systems, and provides an overview of the R1 expert system used by Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) to put together operational systems that meet customers' requirements. Document handling, particularly pictures and images in documents, is also briefly…

  12. Threat expert system technology advisor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kurrasch, E. R.; Tripp, L. R.

    1987-01-01

    A prototype expert system was developed to determine the feasibility of using expert system technology to enhance the performance and survivability of helicopter pilots in a combat threat environment while flying NOE (Nap of the Earth) missions. The basis for the concept is the potential of using an Expert System Advisor to reduce the extreme overloading of the pilot who flies NOE mission below treetop level at approximately 40 knots while performing several other functions. The ultimate goal is to develop a Threat Expert System Advisor which provides threat information and advice that are better than even a highly experienced copilot. The results clearly show that the NOE pilot needs all the help in decision aiding and threat situation awareness that he can get. It clearly shows that heuristics are important and that an expert system for combat NOE helicopter missions can be of great help to the pilot in complex threat situations and in making decisions.

  13. Using expert judgments to improve chronic wasting disease risk management in Canada.

    PubMed

    Oraby, Tamer; Tyshenko, Michael G; Westphal, Margit; Darshan, Shalu; Croteau, Maxine C; Aspinall, Willy; Elsaadany, Susie; Cashman, Neil; Krewski, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    ABSTARCT Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a neurodegenerative, protein misfolding disease affecting cervids in North America in epidemic proportions. While the existence of CWD has been known for more than 40 years, risk management efforts to date have not been able to curtail the spread of this condition. An expert elicitation exercise was carried out in May 2011 to obtain the views of international experts on both the etiology of CWD and possible CWD risk management strategies. This study presents the results of the following three components of the elicitation exercise: (1) expert views of the most likely scenarios for the evolution of the CWD among cervid populations in Canada, (2) ranking analyses of the importance of direct and indirect transmission routes, and (3) rating analyses of CWD control measures in farmed and wild cervids. The implications of these findings for the development of CWD risk management strategies are described in a Canadian context. PMID:27556565

  14. Cognitive resources of physics experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Darrick C.

    One important goal of physics education is to help students develop reasoning patterns similar to those of expert physicists. To achieve this goal, physics educators must know what makes physics experts so successful at solving challenging physics problems. However, this dimension of physics expertise has not been fully explored by the physics education research (PER) community. In this dissertation, I describe several studies I have conducted that further the PER community's understanding of physics expertise. In these studies, I investigate how expert physicists reason as they solve unfamiliar, challenging physics problems by using a resource-based model of cognition to analyze videotaped recordings of problem solving sessions. By developing a way to determine when experts are making conceptual breakthroughs I analyze what resources experts use during conceptual breakthroughs. In the first study, I show that physics conceptual breakthroughs are characterized by reasoning which combines resources related to intuitive knowledge, higher level physics based conceptual knowledge, and epistemological knowledge. In the second study, I develop a way to reliably code for epistemological resources and determine what epistemological resources experts rely on most during conceptual breakthroughs. My findings show that experts rely on contrasting cases more often than any other epistemological resource. In the third study, I use variation theory to investigate how experts use contrasting cases. I look for patterns across all instances when experts use contrasting cases to make a conceptual breakthrough and show how scientific epistemology can be used to better understand experts' use of contrasting cases. I discuss how the findings of each study can be used to inform physics education.

  15. Distinguishing Between Social Reinforcement and Social Elicitation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bloom, Kathleen

    1984-01-01

    Discusses the distinction between species-typical (elicitation) and operant reinforcement interpretations of infant/adult social interaction; considers procedural and analytic components of Poulson's 1983 paper (v36 p471-89); and clarifies differences in Poulson's interpretation and the author's interpretation of the vocal conditioning studies of…

  16. Impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on smoking in adults and children: an elicitation of international experts’ estimates

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Governments sometimes face important decisions in the absence of direct evidence. In these cases, expert elicitation methods can be used to quantify uncertainty. We report the results of an expert elicitation study regarding the likely impact on smoking rates in adults and children of plain packaging of tobacco products. Methods Thirty-three tobacco control experts were recruited from the UK (n = 14), Australasia (n = 12) and North America (n = 7). Experts’ estimates were individually elicited via telephone interviews, and then linearly pooled. Elicited estimates consisted of (1) the most likely, (2) the highest possible, and (3) the lowest possible value for the percentage of (a) adult smokers and (b) children trying smoking, two years after the introduction of plain packaging (all other things being constant) in a target country in the expert’s region of residence. Results The median estimate for the impact on adult smoking prevalence was a 1 percentage point decline (99% range 2.25 to 0), and for the percentage of children trying smoking was a 3 percentage point decline (99% range 6.1 to 0), the latter estimated impact being larger than the former (P < 0.001, sign test). There were no differences in either estimate by region (I2: Adults: 0; Children: 0) but there was considerable variability between experts’ estimates within regions (I2: Adults: 0.91; Children: 0.89). Conclusions In the absence of direct evidence for the impact of introducing plain packaging on smoking rates in adults and children, this study shows that tobacco control experts felt the most likely outcomes would be a reduction in smoking prevalence in adults, and a greater reduction in the numbers of children trying smoking, although there was substantial variability in the estimated size of these impacts. No experts judged an increase in smoking as a likely outcome. PMID:23302325

  17. Elicitation of macrophages from the peritoneal cavity of channel catfish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jenkins, J.A.; Klesius, P.H.

    1998-01-01

    Four chemicals were evaluated for elicitation of macrophages in peritoneal cavities of 250-300g healthy channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus. Cellular exudates were collected at 3, 5, 7, 10, 14, and 20 d following intraperitoneal injections with squalene, Freund's incomplete adjuvant (FIA), goat serum, thioglycollate, or as a control, phosphate-buffered saline. Injection with either squalene or FIA induced significantly greater (P ??? 0.0001) macrophage recruitment than the other chemicals. The effectiveness of squalene and FIA was compared further by macrophage collection daily for 7 d. Squalene and FIA elicited similarly high macrophage responses (P ??? 0.0450), the highest being 3.43 x 106 macrophages/mL (SE, 2.4 x l06) at 99% purity at day 2 and 2.1 X 106 macrophages/mL (SE, 0.7 x 106) at day 14 at 80% purity, respectively. In both experiments, the time after injection was not statistically significant, nor was there an interaction between time and chemicals. The occurrence of cells other than macrophages decreased with time to yield macrophage recoveries of 47-99% for squalene and 30-80% for FIA. Two subsets of macrophages were observed by means of flow cytometry. As demonstrated by chemiluminescence, the squalene-elicited cells produced high-energy oxygen compounds important to the phagocytic process.

  18. The Expanding Role of the Counselor as a Vocational Expert Witness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weikel, William J.

    1986-01-01

    Examines the expanding role of the counselor as an expert witness in various legal proceedings. Specific recommendations are given regarding the content and process of vocational expert testimony as well as practical tips for the novice witness. (Author)

  19. Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luxhoj, J. T.; Ancel, E.; Green, L. L.; Shih, A. T.; Jones, S. M.; Reveley, M. S.

    2014-01-01

    Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

  20. Knowledge-based expert system configurator

    SciTech Connect

    Wakefield, K.A.; Gould, S.S.

    1990-01-01

    The term knowledge-based expert system'' usually brings to mind a rather extensive list of commercially available expert system shells with the associated complexity of implementing the given inferencing strategies to drive a rule base of knowledge for solving particular classes of problems. A significant amount of learning time is required to understand all of the intricacies of the systems in order to effectively utilize their salient features while working around the canned'' constraints. The amount of effort required to prototype the first attempt'' is therefore substantial and can quickly lead to the unfortunate effect of reticence toward applying expert systems. This paper describes an alternative approach to use of specialized shells in developing or prototyping first-attempting knowledge-based expert systems using Lotus 123, a commonly used spreadsheet software package. The advantages of using this approach are discussed. The working example presented makes use of the forward-chaining capabilities available to determine automatically the hardware jumper and switch configuration for a distributed process control system. Hardware configuration control documentation is generated for use by field engineers and maintenance technicians. 4 refs., 4 figs.

  1. Being an expert witness in geomorphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Edward A.

    2015-02-01

    Gathering your own data and coming to your own conclusion through scientific research and discovery is the most important principle to remember when being an expert witness in geomorphology. You can only be questioned in deposition and trial in your area of expertise. You are qualified as an expert by education, knowledge, and experience. You will have absolutely nothing to fear from cross-examination if you are prepared and confident about your work. Being an expert witness requires good communication skills. When you make a presentation, speak clearly and avoid jargon, especially when addressing a jury. Keep in mind that when you take on a case that may eventually go to court as a lawsuit, the entire process, with appeals and so forth, can take several years. Therefore, being an expert may become a long-term commitment of your time and energy. You may be hired by either side in a dispute, but your job is the same - determine the scientific basis of the case and explain your scientific reasoning to the lawyers, the judge, and the jury. Your work, including pre-trial investigations, often determines what the case will be based on. The use of science in the discovery part of an investigation is demonstrated from a California case involving the Ventura River, where building of a flood control levee restricted flow to a narrower channel, increasing unit stream power as well as potential for bank erosion and landsliding.

  2. Novelty-elicited mismatch negativity in patients with schizophrenia on admission and discharge.

    PubMed Central

    Grzella, I; Müller, B W; Oades, R D; Bender, S; Schall, U; Zerbin, D; Wolstein, J; Sartory, G

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Given recent reports of differences between mismatch negativity (MMN) elicited by always novel sounds (novelty-elicited MMN) and that elicited by repeated rare deviants (conventional MMN), we investigated novelty-elicited MMN and P3a in patients with schizophrenia before and after a nonstandardized inpatient treatment. DESIGN: Electrophysiological and clinical assessment of patients on admission and discharge from hospital. Assessment of control subjects on 2 sessions. SETTING: Inpatient treatment in a psychiatric university hospital. SUBJECTS: 20 patients with schizophrenia and 21 healthy control subjects of similar age and sex. Selection of patients with first- to third-episode schizophrenia. OUTCOME MEASURES: Early and late component MMN amplitudes and latencies, P3a amplitudes and latencies, Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), Extrapyramidal Symptom Scale (EPS), Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale (AIMS) and chlorpromazine equivalents. RESULTS: In patients with schizophrenia, novelty-elicited MMN was unimpaired on admission, and there was a statistically significant reduction of the late MMN component with treatment. Improvements in symptom expression were associated with increased latencies of the early MMN component. CONCLUSION: Results indicate differences in information processing between conventional and novelty-elicited MMN. Some components of the novelty-elicited MMN might be more state dependent than those of the conventional MMN. PMID:11394193

  3. Expert Witness: A system for developing expert medical testimony

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lewandowski, Raymond; Perkins, David; Leasure, David

    1994-01-01

    Expert Witness in an expert system designed to assist attorneys and medical experts in determining the merit of medical malpractice claims in the area of obstetrics. It substitutes the time of the medical expert with the time of a paralegal assistant guided by the expert system during the initial investigation of the medical records and patient interviews. The product of the system is a narrative transcript containing important data, immediate conclusions from the data, and overall conclusions of the case that the attorney and medical expert use to make decisions about whether and how to proceed with the case. The transcript may also contain directives for gathering additional information needed for the case. The system is a modified heuristic classifier and is implemented using over 600 CLIPS rules together with a C-based user interface. The data abstraction and solution refinement are implemented directly using forward chaining production and matching. The use of CLIPS and C is essential to delivering a system that runs on a generic PC platform. The direct implementation in CLIPS together with locality of inference ensures that the system will scale gracefully. Two years of use has revealed no errors in the reasoning.

  4. Expert system prototype developments for NASA-KSC business and engineering applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ragusa, James M.; Gonzalez, Avelino J.

    1988-01-01

    Prototype expert systems developed for a variety of NASA projects in the business/management and engineering domains are discussed. Business-related problems addressed include an assistant for simulating launch vehicle processing, a plan advisor for the acquisition of automated data processing equipment, and an expert system for the identification of customer requirements. Engineering problems treated include an expert system for detecting potential ignition sources in LOX and gaseous-oxygen transportation systems and an expert system for hazardous-gas detection.

  5. Using Expert System Job Aids: A Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carr, Clay

    1989-01-01

    Explains how current commercial expert system technology can be used to create useful job aids. Expert systems are defined, situations in which an expert system job aid will be most effective are described, expert system shells are discussed, and three commercial expert system products are described. (LRW)

  6. Personalised, predictive and preventive medication process in hospitals—still rather missing: professional opinion survey on medication safety in Czech hospitals (based on professional opinions of recognised Czech health care experts)

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The survey had the following aims: (1) to rationalise the hypothesis that risks and losses relating to medication process' errors in Czech hospitals are at least comparable with the other developed countries and EU countries especially, (2) to get a valid professional opinion/estimate on the rate of adverse drug events happening in Czech hospitals, (3) to point out that medication errors represent real and serious risks and (4) to induce the hospital management readiness to execute fundamental changes and improvements to medication processes. We read through a lot of studies inquiring into hospitals' medication safety. Then, we selected the studies which brought reliable findings and formulated credible conclusions. Finally, we addressed reputable Czech experts in health care and asked them structured questions whether the studies' findings and conclusions corresponded with our respondents' own experience in the Czech hospital clinical practice and what their own estimates of adverse drug events' consequences were like. Based on the reputable Czech health care expert opinions/estimates, the rate of a false drug administration may exceed 5%, and over 7% of those cause serious health complications to Czech hospital inpatients. Measured by an average length of stay (ALOS), the Czech inpatients, harmed by a false drug administration, stay in hospital for more than 2.6 days longer than necessary. Any positive changes to a currently used, traditional, ways of drug dispensing and administration, along with computerisation, automation, electronic traceability, validation, or verification, must well pay off. Referring to the above results, it seems to be wise to follow the EU priorities in health and health care improvements. Thus, a right usage of the financial means provided by the EC—in terms of its new health programmes for the period 2014–2020 (e.g. Horizon 2020)—has a good chance of a good result in doing the right things right, at the right time and in the

  7. Expert system for generating fuel movement procedures

    SciTech Connect

    Hendrickson, J.P. )

    1991-01-01

    Commercial nuclear power reactors are required by federal law and their operating license to track and control the movement of nuclear fuel. Planning nuclear fuel movements during a refueling outage by hand is a tedious process involving an initial state and final state separated by physical and administrative constraints. Since the initial and final states as well as all constraints are known, an expert computer system for planning this process is possible. Turkey Point station worked with the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)-selected vendor to implement such a system. Over the course of a 2-yr period, the EPRI Fuel Shuffle Planning System evolved from a high-tech word processor to an expert system capable of planning all fuel movement sequences required to refuel a nuclear reactor core. Turkey Point site is composed to two pressurized water reactor units owned and operated by Florida Power and Light Company.

  8. Spacecraft command and control using expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Norcross, Scott; Grieser, William H.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a product called the Intelligent Mission Toolkit (IMT), which was created to meet the changing demands of the spacecraft command and control market. IMT is a command and control system built upon an expert system. Its primary functions are to send commands to the spacecraft and process telemetry data received from the spacecraft. It also controls the ground equipment used to support the system, such as encryption gear, and telemetry front-end equipment. Add-on modules allow IMT to control antennas and antenna interface equipment. The design philosophy for IMT is to utilize available commercial products wherever possible. IMT utilizes Gensym's G2 Real-time Expert System as the core of the system. G2 is responsible for overall system control, spacecraft commanding control, and spacecraft telemetry analysis and display. Other commercial products incorporated into IMT include the SYBASE relational database management system and Loral Test and Integration Systems' System 500 for telemetry front-end processing.

  9. Expert stakeholder attitudes and support for alternative water sources in a groundwater depleted region.

    PubMed

    Boyer, Treavor H; Overdevest, Christine; Christiansen, Lisa; Ishii, Stephanie K L

    2012-10-15

    The main objectives of this research were to quantify the risks/benefits and impacts of alternative water sources (AWSs) as perceived by expert stakeholders and to evaluate the overall support for multiple AWSs by expert stakeholders. The St. Johns River (SJR) basin, FL, USA was chosen as a case study for AWSs because it is a fresh groundwater depleted region and there are ongoing activities related to water supply planning. Expert stakeholders included federal, state, and local governments, public utilities, consulting engineering and industry, and environmental and social non-governmental organizations. AWSs under consideration in the SJR basin include surface water, desalination, water reclamation, and water conservation. A two-phase research approach was followed that focused on expert stakeholders. First, an elicitation study was used to identify salient beliefs about AWSs. Open-ended questions were asked about the risks/benefits of AWSs in terms of the three pillars of sustainability: ecological, economic, and human health impacts. Second, an online survey was constructed using beliefs identified during the elicitation study. The online survey was used to quantify attitudes toward and overall support for AWSs. The salient beliefs of expert stakeholders were dominated by the ecological pillar of sustainability. The support of expert stakeholders for AWSs, from least favorable to most favorable, was surface water withdrawals

  10. An expert system for shuttle and satellite radar tracker scheduling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mitchell, Paul

    1988-01-01

    This expert system automates and optimizes radar tracker selection for shuttle missions. The expert system is written in the FORTRAN and C languages on an HP9000. It is portable to any UNIX machine having both ANSI-77 FORTRAN and C language compilers. It is a rule based expert system that selects tracking stations from the S-band and C-band radar stations and the TDRSS east and TDRSS west satellites under a variety of conditions. The expert system was prototyped on the Symbolics in the Automated Reasoning Tool (ART) and ZetaLisp. After the prototype demonstrated an acceptable automation of the process of selecting tracking stations to support the orbit determination requirements of Shuttle missions, the basic ART rules of the prototype were ported to the HP9000 computer using the CLIPS language. CLIPS is a forward-chaining rule-based expert system language written in C. Prior to the development of this expert system the selection process was a tedious manual process and expensive in terms of human resources. Manual tracking station selection required from 1 to 2 man weeks per mission; whereas the expert system can complete the selection process in about 2 hours.

  11. Using expert systems to analyze ATE data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harrington, Jim

    1994-01-01

    The proliferation of automatic test equipment (ATE) is resulting in the generation of large amounts of component data. Some of this component data is not accurate due to the presence of noise. Analyzing this data requires the use of new techniques. This paper describes the process of developing an expert system to analyze ATE data and provides an example rule in the CLIPS language for analyzing trip thresholds for high gain/high speed comparators.

  12. Expert system aid for military finance

    SciTech Connect

    Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hwang, Ho-Ling; Meador, M.

    1987-09-14

    Historically, budget preparation processes have been difficult to accomplish. Errors and inconsistencies cause problems for the analyst during budget review. This paper discusses the development and testing of an expert system to aid budget preparation. The prototyping tool, its capabilities, and their application are discussed. Shown are the pilot testing procedures and their role in system development. Current status and enhancements (including software updates and future testing) are also presented. 12 refs., 3 figs.

  13. Chain Graph Models to Elicit the Structure of a Bayesian Network

    PubMed Central

    Stefanini, Federico M.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian networks are possibly the most successful graphical models to build decision support systems. Building the structure of large networks is still a challenging task, but Bayesian methods are particularly suited to exploit experts' degree of belief in a quantitative way while learning the network structure from data. In this paper details are provided about how to build a prior distribution on the space of network structures by eliciting a chain graph model on structural reference features. Several structural features expected to be often useful during the elicitation are described. The statistical background needed to effectively use this approach is summarized, and some potential pitfalls are illustrated. Finally, a few seminal contributions from the literature are reformulated in terms of structural features. PMID:24688427

  14. Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

    PubMed

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-07-01

    This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically.

  15. Expert Systems in Clinical Microbiology

    PubMed Central

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-01-01

    Summary: This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the “big three”: Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically. PMID:21734247

  16. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    PubMed Central

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

  17. An Expert Fault Diagnosis System for Vehicle Air Conditioning Product Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, C. F.; Tee, B. T.; Khalil, S. N.; Chen, W.; Rauterberg, G. W. M.

    2015-09-01

    The paper describes the development of the vehicle air-conditioning fault diagnosis system in automotive industries with expert system shell. The main aim of the research is to diagnose the problem of new vehicle air-conditioning system development process and select the most suitable solution to the problems. In the vehicle air-conditioning manufacturing industry, process can be very costly where an expert and experience personnel needed in certain circumstances. The expert of in the industry will retire or resign from time to time. When the expert is absent, their experience and knowledge is difficult to retrieve or lost forever. Expert system is a convenient method to replace expert. By replacing the expert with expert system, the accuracy of the processes will be increased compared to the conventional way. Therefore, the quality of product services that are produced will be finer and better. The inputs for the fault diagnosis are based on design data and experience of the engineer.

  18. Professionalism in court: The neurologist as expert witness.

    PubMed

    Cheshire, William P; Hutchins, John C

    2014-08-01

    Serving as an expert witness can be a rewarding experience. It affords the neurologist the opportunity to contribute expertise to the legal system's pursuit of justice and benefits the public interest. However, serving as an expert witness without understanding and incorporating relevant professional and specialty guidelines concerning expert witness testimony can place the neurologist at risk. The American Academy of Neurology has established standards governing expert witness testimony and a disciplinary process to respond to complaints of violation of its standards. Increased understanding of and adherence to these qualifications and guidelines, coupled with an awareness of how the legal system differs from clinical practice, will better equip neurologists serving as expert witnesses and minimize their professional risk when doing so. PMID:25279255

  19. Eliciting Informative Feedback: The Peer-Prediction Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Nolan; Resnick, Paul; Zeckhauser, Richard

    Many recommendation and decision processes depend on eliciting evaluations of opportunities, products, and vendors. A scoring system is devised that induces honest reporting of feedback. Each rater merely reports a signal, and the system applies proper scoring rules to the implied posterior beliefs about another rater's report. Honest reporting proves to be a Nash Equilibrium. The scoring schemes can be scaled to induce appropriate effort by raters and can be extended to handle sequential interaction and continuous signals. We also address a number of practical implementation issues that arise in settings such as academic reviewing and on-line recommender and reputation systems.

  20. Standards for evaluating expert system tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beach, Sharon S.; Gevarter, William

    1991-01-01

    A brief survey of the literature and proposal for a standard methodology for evaluating expert system building tools are discribed. Criteria for expert systems environmental factors and expert systems tool features are also discussed.

  1. 32 CFR 516.52 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... States Has An Interest § 516.52 Expert witnesses. Requests for present or former DA personnel as expert... SJA or legal adviser. In no event, may present or former DA personnel furnish expert or...

  2. The making of expert clinicians: reflective practice.

    PubMed

    Maestre, J M; Szyld, D; Del Moral, I; Ortiz, G; Rudolph, J W

    2014-05-01

    Debriefing is a rigorous reflection process which helps trainees recognize and resolve clinical and behavioral dilemmas raised by a clinical case. This approach emphasizes eliciting trainees'assumptions about the situation and their reasons for performing as they did (mental models). It analyses their impact on actions, to understand if it is necessary to maintain them or construct new ones that may lead to better performance in the future. It blends evidence and theory from education research, the social and cognitive sciences, and experience drawn from conducting and teaching debriefing to clinicians worldwide, on how to improve professional effectiveness through "reflective practice".

  3. The making of expert clinicians: reflective practice.

    PubMed

    Maestre, J M; Szyld, D; Del Moral, I; Ortiz, G; Rudolph, J W

    2014-05-01

    Debriefing is a rigorous reflection process which helps trainees recognize and resolve clinical and behavioral dilemmas raised by a clinical case. This approach emphasizes eliciting trainees'assumptions about the situation and their reasons for performing as they did (mental models). It analyses their impact on actions, to understand if it is necessary to maintain them or construct new ones that may lead to better performance in the future. It blends evidence and theory from education research, the social and cognitive sciences, and experience drawn from conducting and teaching debriefing to clinicians worldwide, on how to improve professional effectiveness through "reflective practice". PMID:24439667

  4. Inquiry into the Practices of Expert Courseware Designers: A Pragmatic Method for the Design of Effective Instructional Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rowley, Kurt

    2005-01-01

    A multi-stage study of the practices of expert courseware designers was conducted with the final goal of identifying methods for assisting non-experts with the design of effective instructional systems. A total of 25 expert designers were involved in all stages of the inquiry. A model of the expert courseware design process was created, tested,…

  5. Auditory Evoked Fields Elicited by Spectral, Temporal, and Spectral–Temporal Changes in Human Cerebral Cortex

    PubMed Central

    Okamoto, Hidehiko; Teismann, Henning; Kakigi, Ryusuke; Pantev, Christo

    2012-01-01

    Natural sounds contain complex spectral components, which are temporally modulated as time-varying signals. Recent studies have suggested that the auditory system encodes spectral and temporal sound information differently. However, it remains unresolved how the human brain processes sounds containing both spectral and temporal changes. In the present study, we investigated human auditory evoked responses elicited by spectral, temporal, and spectral–temporal sound changes by means of magnetoencephalography. The auditory evoked responses elicited by the spectral–temporal change were very similar to those elicited by the spectral change, but those elicited by the temporal change were delayed by 30–50 ms and differed from the others in morphology. The results suggest that human brain responses corresponding to spectral sound changes precede those corresponding to temporal sound changes, even when the spectral and temporal changes occur simultaneously. PMID:22593751

  6. From mental health professional to expert witness: testifying in court.

    PubMed

    Bank, S C

    1996-01-01

    Our democratic principles rest on the belief that truth is discovered through the fair and open combat of ideas in a court of law. When mental health professionals participate in this adversary process as expert witnesses, it is essential for them to understand that attorneys will attempt to impeach their credibility. Mental health professionals who appreciate the spirit and mechanics of courtroom communication will be best prepared to protect the integrity of their testimony. The courtroom communications model provides experts with a conceptual framework utilizing three components: the speaker is the expert, the message is testimony, and the audience is the judge or jury. Within the structure of this model, communication principles from social psychology can be used to enhance the clarity of testimony and to prevent attorneys from distorting the expert's opinions. First and foremost, expert witness testimony must be formulated upon accepted scholarly and ethical standards. To establish credibility, experts must appear knowledgeable and trustworthy to the judge and jury. The expert must come to court prepared for both direct examination and cross-examination; know when to emphasize logic or emotion, tailor speech in order to reach the maximum number of jurors, and remain nondefensive by projecting the same demeanor regardless of which side is conducting the examination. The role of the expert witness is forever changing because the judicial system--like the mental health field--continues to evolve. Although the adversary process has undergone dramatic changes over the past eight hundred years, historical vestiges continue to echo throughout our courtrooms. Today, expert witnesses are the champions of victims and the accused. Legal disputes are increasingly being decided by the battle of the experts who must undergo the ordeal of cross-examination. When you consider the brutality of ancient ordeals, responding to attorneys armed with questions may not seem so

  7. The Elicitation of Vocal Responses from Preschool Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Champley, Elizabeth Hyne; Andrews, Moya L.

    1993-01-01

    This article discusses the construction of tasks used to elicit vocal responses from preschool children with and without communication disorders. Procedures to elicit valid and reliable responses are proposed, and a sample assessment protocol is presented. (Author/DB)

  8. Expert Systems: Concepts and Applications. Advances in Library Information Technology, Issue Number 1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fenly, Charles; Harris, Howard

    The Processing Services department of the Library of Congress initiated a project to learn about expert systems technology and to examine potential applications of expert systems to functions in their department, e.g., acquisitions, cataloging, and serials control. (An expert system is defined as an artificial intelligence computer program which…

  9. Rhetorical Consequences of the Computer Society: Expert Systems and Human Communication.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skopec, Eric Wm.

    Expert systems are computer programs that solve selected problems by modelling domain-specific behaviors of human experts. These computer programs typically consist of an input/output system that feeds data into the computer and retrieves advice, an inference system using the reasoning and heuristic processes of human experts, and a knowledge…

  10. A gene mapping expert system.

    PubMed

    Galland, J; Skolnick, M H

    1990-08-01

    Expert systems are now commonly developed to solve practical problems. Nevertheless, genetics has just begun to benefit from this new technology, since genetic expert systems are extremely rare and often purely experimental. A prototype for risk calculation in pedigrees was developed at the University of Utah, using a commercial frames/rules developmental shell (Intelligence Compiler), which runs on an IBM PC. When small data sets were used, the implementation functioned well, but it could not handle larger data sets. Performance became a major issue, with two possible solutions. The first possibility would have been to port the system to a more powerful machine, and the second would have been to use several different shells or languages, each efficiently representing a specific type of knowledge. Neither of these solutions was applicable in this case. From this experience, we learned that performance, portability, and modifiability were three major requirements for genetic expert systems. To achieve these goals, we implemented the gene mapping expert system GMES: (GMES is unrelated to the gene mapping system, GMS in Lisp combined with a frame/object shell (FROBS). We were able to efficiently represent, control, and optimize a gene mapping experiment, achieving portability by building GMES on top of a C-based version of Common Lisp. Lisp combined with the FROBS expert system shell permitted a declarative representation of each of the components of the experiment, resulting in a transplant specification of the problem within a maintainable system. PMID:2394090

  11. Multiple neural network approaches to clinical expert systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stubbs, Derek F.

    1990-08-01

    We briefly review the concept of computer aided medical diagnosis and more extensively review the the existing literature on neural network applications in the field. Neural networks can function as simple expert systems for diagnosis or prognosis. Using a public database we develop a neural network for the diagnosis of a major presenting symptom while discussing the development process and possible approaches. MEDICAL EXPERTS SYSTEMS COMPUTER AIDED DIAGNOSIS Biomedicine is an incredibly diverse and multidisciplinary field and it is not surprising that neural networks with their many applications are finding more and more applications in the highly non-linear field of biomedicine. I want to concentrate on neural networks as medical expert systems for clinical diagnosis or prognosis. Expert Systems started out as a set of computerized " ifthen" rules. Everything was reduced to boolean logic and the promised land of computer experts was said to be in sight. It never came. Why? First the computer code explodes as the number of " ifs" increases. All the " ifs" have to interact. Second experts are not very good at reducing expertise to language. It turns out that experts recognize patterns and have non-verbal left-brain intuition decision processes. Third learning by example rather than learning by rule is the way natural brains works and making computers work by rule-learning is hideously labor intensive. Neural networks can learn from example. They learn the results

  12. Antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal in humans.

    PubMed

    Gorelick, David A; Goodwin, Robert S; Schwilke, Eugene; Schwope, David M; Darwin, William D; Kelly, Deanna L; McMahon, Robert P; Liu, Fang; Ortemann-Renon, Catherine; Bonnet, Denis; Huestis, Marilyn A

    2011-10-01

    Cannabinoid CB1 receptor antagonists have potential therapeutic benefits, but antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal has not been reported in humans. Ten male daily cannabis smokers received 8 days of increasingly frequent 20-mg oral Δ⁹-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) dosages (40-120 mg/d) around-the-clock to standardize cannabis dependence while residing on a closed research unit. On the ninth day, double-blind placebo or 20- (suggested therapeutic dose) or 40-mg oral rimonabant, a CB1-cannabinoid receptor antagonist, was administered. Cannabis withdrawal signs and symptoms were assessed before and for 23.5 hours after rimonabant. Rimonabant, THC, and 11-hydroxy-THC plasma concentrations were quantified by mass spectrometry. The first 6 subjects received 20-mg rimonabant (1 placebo); the remaining 4 subjects received 40-mg rimonabant (1 placebo). Fourteen subjects enrolled; 10 completed before premature termination because of withdrawal of rimonabant from clinical development. Three of 5 subjects in the 20-mg group, 1 of 3 in the 40-mg group, and none of 2 in the placebo group met the prespecified withdrawal criterion of 150% increase or higher in at least 3 visual analog scales for cannabis withdrawal symptoms within 3 hours of rimonabant dosing. There were no significant associations between visual analog scale, heart rate, or blood pressure changes and peak rimonabant plasma concentration, area-under-the-rimonabant-concentration-by-time curve (0-8 hours), or peak rimonabant/THC or rimonabant/(THC + 11-hydroxy-THC) plasma concentration ratios. In summary, prespecified criteria for antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal were not observed at the 20- or 40-mg rimonabant doses. These data do not preclude antagonist-elicited withdrawal at higher rimonabant doses.

  13. Antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal in humans.

    PubMed

    Gorelick, David A; Goodwin, Robert S; Schwilke, Eugene; Schwope, David M; Darwin, William D; Kelly, Deanna L; McMahon, Robert P; Liu, Fang; Ortemann-Renon, Catherine; Bonnet, Denis; Huestis, Marilyn A

    2011-10-01

    Cannabinoid CB1 receptor antagonists have potential therapeutic benefits, but antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal has not been reported in humans. Ten male daily cannabis smokers received 8 days of increasingly frequent 20-mg oral Δ⁹-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) dosages (40-120 mg/d) around-the-clock to standardize cannabis dependence while residing on a closed research unit. On the ninth day, double-blind placebo or 20- (suggested therapeutic dose) or 40-mg oral rimonabant, a CB1-cannabinoid receptor antagonist, was administered. Cannabis withdrawal signs and symptoms were assessed before and for 23.5 hours after rimonabant. Rimonabant, THC, and 11-hydroxy-THC plasma concentrations were quantified by mass spectrometry. The first 6 subjects received 20-mg rimonabant (1 placebo); the remaining 4 subjects received 40-mg rimonabant (1 placebo). Fourteen subjects enrolled; 10 completed before premature termination because of withdrawal of rimonabant from clinical development. Three of 5 subjects in the 20-mg group, 1 of 3 in the 40-mg group, and none of 2 in the placebo group met the prespecified withdrawal criterion of 150% increase or higher in at least 3 visual analog scales for cannabis withdrawal symptoms within 3 hours of rimonabant dosing. There were no significant associations between visual analog scale, heart rate, or blood pressure changes and peak rimonabant plasma concentration, area-under-the-rimonabant-concentration-by-time curve (0-8 hours), or peak rimonabant/THC or rimonabant/(THC + 11-hydroxy-THC) plasma concentration ratios. In summary, prespecified criteria for antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal were not observed at the 20- or 40-mg rimonabant doses. These data do not preclude antagonist-elicited withdrawal at higher rimonabant doses. PMID:21869692

  14. Eliciting promises from children reduces cheating.

    PubMed

    Heyman, Gail D; Fu, Genyue; Lin, Jianyan; Qian, Miao K; Lee, Kang

    2015-11-01

    Widespread cheating can undermine rules that are necessary for maintaining social order. Preventing cheating can be a challenge, especially with regard to children, who as a result of their limited executive function skills may have particular difficulty with resisting temptation to cheat. We examined one approach designed to help children resist this temptation: eliciting a verbal commitment to not cheat. We tested 4- to 7-year-olds (total N = 330) and found that starting at 5 years of age, a verbal commitment to not cheat led to a substantial reduction in cheating. The results suggest that verbal commitments can be used to help children overcome temptations and comply with rules.

  15. Register of hydrogen technology experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ludtke, P. R.

    1975-01-01

    This register presents the names of approximately 235 individuals who are considered experts, or very knowledgeable, in various fields of technology related to hydrogen. Approximately 90 organizations are represented. Each person is listed by organizational affiliation, address, and principal area of expertise. The criteria for selection of names for the register are extensive experience in a given field of work, participation in or supervision of relevant research programs, contributions to the literature, or being recognized as an expert in a particular field. The purpose of the register is to present, in easy form, sources of dependable information regarding highly technical areas of hydrogen technology, with particular emphasis on safety. The register includes two indexes: an alphabetical listing of the experts and an alphabetical listing of the organizations with which they are affiliated.

  16. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  17. [Medical expert assessment in psychiatry].

    PubMed

    Pietzcker, A

    1996-11-01

    Especially regarding two respects, the psychiatric expert assessment differs from the expert assessment of other medical specialties: (1) No laboratory tests or technical equipment are available for the psychiatrist except for mental disturbances due to physical impacts such as brain injuries or intoxications. The psychiatrist depends on a carefully compiled case history and a differentiated psychodiagnostic. This may lead to a wrong assessment due to a lack of objectiveness. (2) There are a lot of legal areas where only the psychiatric or psychological expert opinion is required: i.e., the question of criminal responsibility during a trial, the assessment of legal capacity and the capability to will, for decisions about the custody of children etc. This is demonstrated with some cases as an example.

  18. Expert witness and Jungian archetypes.

    PubMed

    Lallave, Juan Antonio; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Jung's theories of archetype, shadow, and the personal and collective unconscious provide a postmodern framework in which to consider the role of the expert witness in judicial proceedings. Archetypal themes, motifs, and influences help to illuminate the shadow of the judicial system and projections and behaviors among the cast of the court in pursuing justice. This article speaks to archetypal influences and dialectical tensions encountered by the expert witness in this judicial drama. The archetype of Justice is born from the human need for order and relational fairness in a world of chaos. The persona of justice is the promise of truth in the drama. The shadow of justice is untruth, the need to win by any means. The dynamics of the trickster archetype serve and promote injustice. These influences are examined by means of a case example. This approach will deepen understanding of court proceedings and the role of the expert witness in the heroic quest for justice. PMID:23062586

  19. Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie.

    PubMed

    Wittmann, Marion E; Cooke, Roger M; Rothlisberger, John D; Rutherford, Edward S; Zhang, Hongyan; Mason, Doran M; Lodge, David M

    2015-02-01

    Identifying which nonindigenous species will become invasive and forecasting the damage they will cause is difficult and presents a significant problem for natural resource management. Often, the data or resources necessary for ecological risk assessment are incomplete or absent, leaving environmental decision makers ill equipped to effectively manage valuable natural resources. Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is a mathematical and performance-based method of eliciting, weighting, and aggregating expert judgments. In contrast to other methods of eliciting and aggregating expert judgments (where, for example, equal weights may be assigned to experts), SEJ weights each expert on the basis of his or her statistical accuracy and informativeness through performance measurement on a set of calibration variables. We used SEJ to forecast impacts of nonindigenous Asian carp (Hypophthalmichthys spp.) in Lake Erie, where it is believed not to be established. Experts quantified Asian carp biomass, production, and consumption and their impact on 4 fish species if Asian carp were to become established. According to experts, in Lake Erie Asian carp have the potential to achieve biomass levels that are similar to the sum of biomasses for several fishes that are harvested commercially or recreationally. However, the impact of Asian carp on the biomass of these fishes was estimated by experts to be small, relative to long term average biomasses, with little uncertainty. Impacts of Asian carp in tributaries and on recreational activities, water quality, or other species were not addressed. SEJ can be used to quantify key uncertainties of invasion biology and also provide a decision-support tool when the necessary information for natural resource management and policy is not available.

  20. Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie.

    PubMed

    Wittmann, Marion E; Cooke, Roger M; Rothlisberger, John D; Rutherford, Edward S; Zhang, Hongyan; Mason, Doran M; Lodge, David M

    2015-02-01

    Identifying which nonindigenous species will become invasive and forecasting the damage they will cause is difficult and presents a significant problem for natural resource management. Often, the data or resources necessary for ecological risk assessment are incomplete or absent, leaving environmental decision makers ill equipped to effectively manage valuable natural resources. Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is a mathematical and performance-based method of eliciting, weighting, and aggregating expert judgments. In contrast to other methods of eliciting and aggregating expert judgments (where, for example, equal weights may be assigned to experts), SEJ weights each expert on the basis of his or her statistical accuracy and informativeness through performance measurement on a set of calibration variables. We used SEJ to forecast impacts of nonindigenous Asian carp (Hypophthalmichthys spp.) in Lake Erie, where it is believed not to be established. Experts quantified Asian carp biomass, production, and consumption and their impact on 4 fish species if Asian carp were to become established. According to experts, in Lake Erie Asian carp have the potential to achieve biomass levels that are similar to the sum of biomasses for several fishes that are harvested commercially or recreationally. However, the impact of Asian carp on the biomass of these fishes was estimated by experts to be small, relative to long term average biomasses, with little uncertainty. Impacts of Asian carp in tributaries and on recreational activities, water quality, or other species were not addressed. SEJ can be used to quantify key uncertainties of invasion biology and also provide a decision-support tool when the necessary information for natural resource management and policy is not available. PMID:25132396

  1. Nickel cadmium battery expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The applicability of artificial intelligence methodologies for the automation of energy storage management, in this case, nickel cadmium batteries, is demonstrated. With the Hubble Space Telescope Electrical Power System (HST/EPS) testbed as the application domain, an expert system was developed which incorporates the physical characterization of the EPS, in particular, the nickel cadmium batteries, as well as the human's operational knowledge. The expert system returns not only fault diagnostics but also status and advice along with justifications and explanations in the form of decision support.

  2. Robotic planner expert system (RPLANES)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grice, Ervin Oneal

    1987-01-01

    The Artificial Intelligence Section of the Mission Planning and Analysis of the Johnson Space Center has developed a prototype of an expert system for robotic planning. A robot is given a high level goal to perform an action (i.e., swap, adjust, or stow) on a component unit of an object such as a satellite and the Robotic Planner Expert System (RPLANES) generates the necessary goals for arm actions. RPLANES is designed using the Inference Corp. Automated Reasoning Tool (ART) development tool. It resides on a SYMBOLICS 3670. RPLANES and its evolution are described.

  3. User interfaces to expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Agarwal, A.; Emrich, M.L.

    1988-10-01

    Expert Systems are becoming increasingly popular in environments where the user is not well versed in computers or the subject domain. They offer expert advice and can also explain their lines of reasoning. As these systems are applied to highly technical areas, they become complex and large. Therefore, User Systems Interfaces (USIs) become critical. This paper discusses recent technologies that can be applied to improved user communication. In particular, bar menus/graphics, mouse interfaces, touch screens, and voice links will be highlighted. Their applications in the context of SOFTMAN (The Software Manager Apprentice) a knowledge-based system are discussed. 18 refs., 2 figs.

  4. Parallelism in backward-chained expert systems - Experimental results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Lawrence O.

    1990-01-01

    There are many applications which may be done by an expert system in real time, if the system is capable of real-time response. The LISP and PROLOG-based expert systems have typically been too slow for real-time response. This has led to an effort to use other languages, the development of fast pattern matching techniques and other methods of improving the speed of expert systems. Another approach to developing faster expert systems is to make use of the emerging parallel processing computer technology. A further use for parallelism is to allow reasonable response time for large knowledge bases. The size of knowledge bases may become as large as 20,000 chunks of knowledge (and more) in the near future in medical and space applications. This paper describes the use of parallel processing in the EMYCIN backward chained rule-based model.

  5. Isolated sleep paralysis elicited by sleep interruption.

    PubMed

    Takeuchi, T; Miyasita, A; Sasaki, Y; Inugami, M; Fukuda, K

    1992-06-01

    We elicited isolated sleep paralysis (ISP) from normal subjects by a nocturnal sleep interruption schedule. On four experimental nights, 16 subjects had their sleep interrupted for 60 minutes by forced awakening at the time when 40 minutes of nonrapid eye movement (NREM) sleep had elapsed from the termination of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep in the first or third sleep cycle. This schedule produced a sleep onset REM period (SOREMP) after the interruption at a high rate of 71.9%. We succeeded in eliciting six episodes of ISP in the sleep interruptions performed (9.4%). All episodes of ISP except one occurred from SOREMP, indicating a close correlation between ISP and SOREMP. We recorded verbal reports about ISP experiences and recorded the polysomnogram (PSG) during ISP. All of the subjects with ISP experienced inability to move and were simultaneously aware of lying in the laboratory. All but one reported auditory/visual hallucinations and unpleasant emotions. PSG recordings during ISP were characterized by a REM/W stage dissociated state, i.e. abundant alpha electroencephalographs and persistence of muscle atonia shown by the tonic electromyogram. Judging from the PSG recordings, ISP differs from other dissociated states such as lucid dreaming, nocturnal panic attacks and REM sleep behavior disorders. We compare some of the sleep variables between ISP and non-ISP nights. We also discuss the similarities and differences between ISP and sleep paralysis in narcolepsy. PMID:1621022

  6. Isolated sleep paralysis elicited by sleep interruption.

    PubMed

    Takeuchi, T; Miyasita, A; Sasaki, Y; Inugami, M; Fukuda, K

    1992-06-01

    We elicited isolated sleep paralysis (ISP) from normal subjects by a nocturnal sleep interruption schedule. On four experimental nights, 16 subjects had their sleep interrupted for 60 minutes by forced awakening at the time when 40 minutes of nonrapid eye movement (NREM) sleep had elapsed from the termination of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep in the first or third sleep cycle. This schedule produced a sleep onset REM period (SOREMP) after the interruption at a high rate of 71.9%. We succeeded in eliciting six episodes of ISP in the sleep interruptions performed (9.4%). All episodes of ISP except one occurred from SOREMP, indicating a close correlation between ISP and SOREMP. We recorded verbal reports about ISP experiences and recorded the polysomnogram (PSG) during ISP. All of the subjects with ISP experienced inability to move and were simultaneously aware of lying in the laboratory. All but one reported auditory/visual hallucinations and unpleasant emotions. PSG recordings during ISP were characterized by a REM/W stage dissociated state, i.e. abundant alpha electroencephalographs and persistence of muscle atonia shown by the tonic electromyogram. Judging from the PSG recordings, ISP differs from other dissociated states such as lucid dreaming, nocturnal panic attacks and REM sleep behavior disorders. We compare some of the sleep variables between ISP and non-ISP nights. We also discuss the similarities and differences between ISP and sleep paralysis in narcolepsy.

  7. An expert system based intelligent control scheme for space bioreactors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    San, Ka-Yiu

    1988-01-01

    An expert system based intelligent control scheme is being developed for the effective control and full automation of bioreactor systems in space. The scheme developed will have the capability to capture information from various resources including heuristic information from process researchers and operators. The knowledge base of the expert system should contain enough expertise to perform on-line system identification and thus be able to adapt the controllers accordingly with minimal human supervision.

  8. Expert music performance: cognitive, neural, and developmental bases.

    PubMed

    Brown, Rachel M; Zatorre, Robert J; Penhune, Virginia B

    2015-01-01

    In this chapter, we explore what happens in the brain of an expert musician during performance. Understanding expert music performance is interesting to cognitive neuroscientists not only because it tests the limits of human memory and movement, but also because studying expert musicianship can help us understand skilled human behavior in general. In this chapter, we outline important facets of our current understanding of the cognitive and neural basis for music performance, and developmental factors that may underlie musical ability. We address three main questions. (1) What is expert performance? (2) How do musicians achieve expert-level performance? (3) How does expert performance come about? We address the first question by describing musicians' ability to remember, plan, execute, and monitor their performances in order to perform music accurately and expressively. We address the second question by reviewing evidence for possible cognitive and neural mechanisms that may underlie or contribute to expert music performance, including the integration of sound and movement, feedforward and feedback motor control processes, expectancy, and imagery. We further discuss how neural circuits in auditory, motor, parietal, subcortical, and frontal cortex all contribute to different facets of musical expertise. Finally, we address the third question by reviewing evidence for the heritability of musical expertise and for how expertise develops through training and practice. We end by discussing outlooks for future work. PMID:25725910

  9. Expert music performance: cognitive, neural, and developmental bases.

    PubMed

    Brown, Rachel M; Zatorre, Robert J; Penhune, Virginia B

    2015-01-01

    In this chapter, we explore what happens in the brain of an expert musician during performance. Understanding expert music performance is interesting to cognitive neuroscientists not only because it tests the limits of human memory and movement, but also because studying expert musicianship can help us understand skilled human behavior in general. In this chapter, we outline important facets of our current understanding of the cognitive and neural basis for music performance, and developmental factors that may underlie musical ability. We address three main questions. (1) What is expert performance? (2) How do musicians achieve expert-level performance? (3) How does expert performance come about? We address the first question by describing musicians' ability to remember, plan, execute, and monitor their performances in order to perform music accurately and expressively. We address the second question by reviewing evidence for possible cognitive and neural mechanisms that may underlie or contribute to expert music performance, including the integration of sound and movement, feedforward and feedback motor control processes, expectancy, and imagery. We further discuss how neural circuits in auditory, motor, parietal, subcortical, and frontal cortex all contribute to different facets of musical expertise. Finally, we address the third question by reviewing evidence for the heritability of musical expertise and for how expertise develops through training and practice. We end by discussing outlooks for future work.

  10. Building the BIKE: Development and Testing of the Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witzig, Stephen B.; Rebello, Carina M.; Siegel, Marcelle A.; Freyermuth, Sharyn K.; Izci, Kemal; McClure, Bruce

    2014-10-01

    Identifying students' conceptual scientific understanding is difficult if the appropriate tools are not available for educators. Concept inventories have become a popular tool to assess student understanding; however, traditionally, they are multiple choice tests. International science education standard documents advocate that assessments should be reform based, contain diverse question types, and should align with instructional approaches. To date, no instrument of this type targeting student conceptions in biotechnology has been developed. We report here the development, testing, and validation of a 35-item Biotechnology Instrument for Knowledge Elicitation (BIKE) that includes a mix of question types. The BIKE was designed to elicit student thinking and a variety of conceptual understandings, as opposed to testing closed-ended responses. The design phase contained nine steps including a literature search for content, student interviews, a pilot test, as well as expert review. Data from 175 students over two semesters, including 16 student interviews and six expert reviewers (professors from six different institutions), were used to validate the instrument. Cronbach's alpha on the pre/posttest was 0.664 and 0.668, respectively, indicating the BIKE has internal consistency. Cohen's kappa for inter-rater reliability among the 6,525 total items was 0.684 indicating substantial agreement among scorers. Item analysis demonstrated that the items were challenging, there was discrimination among the individual items, and there was alignment with research-based design principles for construct validity. This study provides a reliable and valid conceptual understanding instrument in the understudied area of biotechnology.

  11. Teen Experts Guide Makerspace Makeover

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graves, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    A makerspace is a place where makers can envision a project, find an expert, and create something. Libraries have always held programming during which patrons were able to come in and create. The makerspace at the Lamar Middle School in Flower Mound, Texas, is available for students every day, so that they can daily create and play with innovative…

  12. Expert Systems for Reference Work.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parrot, James R.

    1986-01-01

    Discussion of library reference work that may be suitable for use of expert systems focuses on (1) information and literature searches, and (2) requests to interpret bibliographic references and locate items listed. Systems and computer-assisted instruction modules designed for information retrieval at the University of Waterloo Library are…

  13. Expert Panels, Consumers, and Chemistry.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rehfeldt, Thomas K.

    2000-01-01

    Studied the attributes, properties, and consumer acceptance of antiperspirant products through responses of 400 consumers (consumer data), expert panel data, and analytical data about the products. Results show how the Rasch model can provide the tool necessary to combine data from several sources. (SLD)

  14. Concert hall acoustics assessment with individually elicited attributes.

    PubMed

    Lokki, Tapio; Patynen, Jukka; Kuusinen, Antti; Vertanen, Heikki; Tervo, Sakari

    2011-08-01

    Concert hall acoustics was evaluated with a descriptive sensory analysis method by employing an individual vocabulary development technique. The goal was to obtain sensory profiles of three concert halls by eliciting perceptual attributes for evaluation and comparison of the halls. The stimuli were gathered by playing back anechoic symphony music from 34 loudspeakers on stage in each concert hall and recording the sound field with a microphone array. Four musical programs were processed for multichannel 3D sound reproduction in the actual listening test. Twenty screened assessors developed their individual set of attributes and performed a comparative evaluation of nine seats, three in each hall. The results contain the distinctive groups of elicited attributes and show good agreement within assessors, even though they applied individual attributes when rating the samples. It was also found that loudness and distance gave the strongest perceptual direction to the principal component basis. In addition, the study revealed that the perception of reverberance is related to the size of the space or to the enveloping reverberance, depending on the assessor.

  15. Epigenetic mechanisms elicited by nutrition in early life.

    PubMed

    Canani, Roberto Berni; Costanzo, Margherita Di; Leone, Ludovica; Bedogni, Giorgio; Brambilla, Paolo; Cianfarani, Stefano; Nobili, Valerio; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Agostoni, Carlo

    2011-12-01

    A growing number of studies focusing on the developmental origin of health and disease hypothesis have identified links among early nutrition, epigenetic processes and diseases also in later life. Different epigenetic mechanisms are elicited by dietary factors in early critical developmental ages that are able to affect the susceptibility to several diseases in adulthood. The studies here reviewed suggest that maternal and neonatal diet may have long-lasting effects in the development of non-communicable chronic adulthood diseases, in particular the components of the so-called metabolic syndrome, such as insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes, obesity, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, and CVD. Both maternal under- and over-nutrition may regulate the expression of genes involved in lipid and carbohydrate metabolism. Early postnatal nutrition may also represent a vital determinant of adult health by making an impact on the development and function of gut microbiota. An inadequate gut microbiota composition and function in early life seems to account for the deviant programming of later immunity and overall health status. In this regard probiotics, which have the potential to restore the intestinal microbiota balance, may be effective in preventing the development of chronic immune-mediated diseases. More recently, the epigenetic mechanisms elicited by probiotics through the production of SCFA are hypothesised to be the key to understand how they mediate their numerous health-promoting effects from the gut to the peripheral tissues.

  16. Utilizing expert systems for satellite monitoring and control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hughes, Peter M.

    1991-01-01

    Spacecraft analysts in the spacecraft control center for the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) satellite are currently utilizing a fault-isolation expert system developed to assist in the isolation and correction of faults in the communications link. This system, the communication link expert assistance resource (CLEAR), monitors real time spacecraft and ground systems performance parameters in search of configuration discrepancies and communications link problems. If such a discrepancy or problem is isolated, CLEAR alerts the analyst and provides advice on how to resolve the problem swiftly and effectively. The CLEAR system is the first real time expert system to be used in the operational environment of a satellite control center at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Clear has not only demonstrated the utility and potential of an expert system in the demanding environment of a satellite control center, but also has revealed many of the pitfalls and deficiencies of development of expert systems. One of the lessons learned from this and other initial expert system projects is that prototypes can often be developed quite rapidly, but operational expert systems require considerable effort. Development is generally a slow, tedious process that typically requires the special skills of trained programmers. Due to the success of CLEAR and several other systems in the control center domain, a large number of expert systems will certainly be developed to support control center operations during the early 1990's. To facilitate the development of these systems, a project was initiated to develop an integrated, domain-specific tool, the generic spacecraft analyst assistent (GenSAA), that alows the spacecraft analysts to rapidly create simple expert systems themselves. By providing a highly graphical point-and-select method of system development, GenSAA allows the analyst to utilize and/or modify previously developed rule bases and system components; thus, facilitating

  17. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems: Will They Change the Library? Papers Presented at the Annual Clinic on Library Applications of Data Processing (27th, Urbana, Illinois, March 25-27, 1990). Illinois, March 25-27, 1990).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lancaster, F. W., Ed.; Smith, Linda C., Ed.

    Some of the 12 conference papers presented in this proceedings focus on the present and potential capabilities of artificial intelligence and expert systems as they relate to a wide range of library applications, including descriptive cataloging, technical services, collection development, subject indexing, reference services, database searching,…

  18. Making a team of experts into an expert team.

    PubMed

    Charney, Carol

    2011-10-01

    Health care has traditionally been delivered primarily by experts working individually in a decentralized system lacking cohesive organization among professional disciplines. Only recently have the advantages of teamwork training been acknowledged in health care. This article explores the history, benefits, and recommendations for team training in neonatal care. TeamSTEPPS (Rockville, MD) and the revised Neonatal Resuscitation Program are cited as promising models for improved neonatal outcomes through professional teamwork.

  19. Reward positivity elicited by predictive cues.

    PubMed

    Holroyd, Clay B; Krigolson, Olav E; Lee, Seung

    2011-03-30

    A recent theory holds that a component of the human event-related brain potential called the reward positivity reflects a reward prediction error signal. We investigated this idea in gambling-like task in which, on each trial, a visual stimulus predicted a subsequent rewarding or nonrewarding outcome with 80% probability. Consistent with earlier results, we found that the reward positivity was larger to unexpected than to expected outcomes. In addition, we found that the predictive cues also elicited a reward positivity, as proposed by the theory. These results indicate that the reward positivity reflects the initial assessment of whether a trial will end in success or failure and the reappraisal of that information once the outcome actually occurs.

  20. Assessing pragmatic skills in elicited production.

    PubMed

    de Villiers, Peter

    2004-02-01

    In developing a test of pragmatic skills for children ages 4 to 9 years, we focused on a number of functional language skills that are important for children's success in early schooling and for the development of fluent reading and writing. They included (1) wh-question asking, (2) communicative role taking, (3) linking events in a cohesive narrative, and (4) articulating the mental states of the characters in a story. All of the proposed items provide specific referential support and pragmatic motivation for the forms and content to be produced by the child. The pictured materials and elicitation prompts constrain the range of appropriate utterances, so the children's productions are more easily scored than an open-ended spontaneous speech sample. All tasks described show a clear developmental trend, a clear separation between the performance of typically developing and language-impaired children, and no performance differences between African American English- and Mainstream American English-speaking children.

  1. Hindlimb unloading elicits anhedonia and sympathovagal imbalance.

    PubMed

    Moffitt, Julia A; Grippo, Angela J; Beltz, Terry G; Johnson, Alan Kim

    2008-10-01

    The hindlimb-unloaded (HU) rat model elicits cardiovascular deconditioning and simulates the physiological adaptations to microgravity or prolonged bed rest in humans. Although psychological deficits have been documented following bed rest and spaceflight in humans, few studies have explored the psychological effects of cardiovascular deconditioning in animal models. Given the bidirectional link established between cardiac autonomic imbalance and psychological depression in both humans and in animal models, we hypothesized that hindlimb unloading would elicit an alteration in sympathovagal tone and behavioral indexes of psychological depression. Male, Sprague-Dawley rats confined to 14 days of HU displayed anhedonia (a core feature of human depression) compared with casted control (CC) animals evidenced by reduced sucrose preference (CC: 81 +/- 2.9% baseline vs. HU: 58 +/- 4.5% baseline) and reduced (rightward shift) operant responding for rewarding electrical brain stimulation (CC: 4.4 +/- 0.3 muA vs. 7.3 +/- 1.0 muA). Cardiac autonomic blockade revealed elevated sympathetic [CC: -54 +/- 14.1 change in (Delta) beats/min vs. HU: -118 +/- 7.6 Delta beats/min] and reduced parasympathetic (CC: 45 +/- 11.8 Delta beats/min vs. HU: 8 +/- 7.3 Delta beats/min) cardiac tone in HU rats. Heart rate variability was reduced (CC: 10 +/- 1.4 ms vs. HU: 7 +/- 0.7 ms), and spectral analysis of blood pressure indicated loss of total, low-, and high-frequency power, consistent with attenuated baroreflex function. These data indicate that cardiovascular deconditioning results in sympathovagal imbalance and behavioral signs consistent with psychological depression. These findings further elucidate the pathophysiological link between cardiovascular diseases and affective disorders.

  2. ATS displays: A reasoning visualization tool for expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Selig, William John; Johannes, James D.

    1990-01-01

    Reasoning visualization is a useful tool that can help users better understand the inherently non-sequential logic of an expert system. While this is desirable in most all expert system applications, it is especially so for such critical systems as those destined for space-based operations. A hierarchical view of the expert system reasoning process and some characteristics of these various levels is presented. Also presented are Abstract Time Slice (ATS) displays, a tool to visualize the plethora of interrelated information available at the host inferencing language level of reasoning. The usefulness of this tool is illustrated with some examples from a prototype potable water expert system for possible use aboard Space Station Freedom.

  3. Expert systems - New approaches to computer-aided engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dym, C. L.

    This paper provides an overview of the burgeoning new field of expert (knowledge-based) systems. This survey is tutorial in nature, intended to convey the gestalt of such systems to engineers who are newly exposed to the field. The discussion includes definitions, basic concepts, expert system architecture, descriptions of some of the programming tools and environments with which knowledge-based systems can be built, and approaches to knowledge acquisition. Some currently extant expert systems are described en passant, including a few developed for engineering purposes. Comments follow on the engineering of knowledge, as both cultural and social processes. The paper closes with an assessment of the roles that expert systems can play in engineering analysis, design, planning, and education.

  4. Sustainable rangeland management using a multi-fuzzy model: how to deal with heterogeneous experts' knowledge.

    PubMed

    Azadi, Hossein; Shahvali, Mansour; van den Berg, Jan; Faghih, Nezamoddin

    2007-04-01

    While fuzzy specialists commonly use homogeneous experts' knowledge to construct fuzzy models, it is much more difficult to deal with knowledge elicited from a heterogeneous group of experts. This issue is exemplified in the area of sustainable rangeland management (SRM). One way to deal with the diversity of opinions is to develop a fuzzy system for all experts and to combine all these, the so-called primary systems, into one multi-fuzzy model. To derive each of the primary fuzzy systems, several semi-structured interviews were held in three different areas of the Fars province in Southwest Iran using the knowledge of a group of administrative experts. To obtain the final output of the multi-fuzzy model, we applied different 'voting' methods. The first method simply uses the arithmetic average of the primary outputs as the final output of the multi-fuzzy model. This final output represents an estimation of the right rate of stocking (RRS). We also propose other (un)supervised voting methods. Most importantly, by harmonising the primary outputs such that outliers get less emphasis, we introduce an unsupervised voting method for calculating a weighted estimate of the RRS. This harmonising method is expected to provide a new useful tool for policymakers dealing with heterogenity in experts' opinions: it is especially useful where limited field data are available and one is forced to rely on experts' knowledge only. By constructing the three fuzzy models based on the elicitation of heterogeneous experts' knowledge, our study shows the multidimensional vaguenesses that exist in SRM. Finally, by comparing the final RRS with its common values, this study strongly points to the existence of overgrazing in pastures in the three regions of the Fars province in Southwest Iran. PMID:16887257

  5. Eliciting Change in Maltreating Fathers: Goals, Processes, and Desired Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crooks, Claire V.; Scott, Katreena L.; Francis, Karen J.; Kelly, Tim; Reid, Maureen

    2006-01-01

    There has been a growing recognition of the need to provide appropriate intervention services to fathers who have been abusive in their families. This paper highlights four specific treatment goals for fathers who maltreat their children, along with therapeutic strategies necessary to accomplish desired outcomes. These goals were developed as part…

  6. Experts bodies, experts minds: How physical and mental training shape the brain.

    PubMed

    Debarnot, Ursula; Sperduti, Marco; Di Rienzo, Franck; Guillot, Aymeric

    2014-01-01

    Skill learning is the improvement in perceptual, cognitive, or motor performance following practice. Expert performance levels can be achieved with well-organized knowledge, using sophisticated and specific mental representations and cognitive processing, applying automatic sequences quickly and efficiently, being able to deal with large amounts of information, and many other challenging task demands and situations that otherwise paralyze the performance of novices. The neural reorganizations that occur with expertise reflect the optimization of the neurocognitive resources to deal with the complex computational load needed to achieve peak performance. As such, capitalizing on neuronal plasticity, brain modifications take place over time-practice and during the consolidation process. One major challenge is to investigate the neural substrates and cognitive mechanisms engaged in expertise, and to define "expertise" from its neural and cognitive underpinnings. Recent insights showed that many brain structures are recruited during task performance, but only activity in regions related to domain-specific knowledge distinguishes experts from novices. The present review focuses on three expertise domains placed across a motor to mental gradient of skill learning: sequential motor skill, mental simulation of the movement (motor imagery), and meditation as a paradigmatic example of "pure" mental training. We first describe results on each specific domain from the initial skill acquisition to expert performance, including recent results on the corresponding underlying neural mechanisms. We then discuss differences and similarities between these domains with the aim to identify the highlights of the neurocognitive processes underpinning expertise, and conclude with suggestions for future research.

  7. Real-time space system control with expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leinweber, David; Hawkinson, Lowell; Perry, John

    1988-01-01

    Many aspects of space system operations involve continuous control of real time processes. These processes include electrical power system monitoring, prelaunch and ongoing propulsion system health and maintenance, environmental and life support systems, space suit checkout, onboard manufacturing, and vehicle servicing including satellites, shuttles, orbital maneuvering vehicles, orbital transfer vehicles and remote teleoperators. Traditionally, monitoring of these critical real time processes has been done by trained human experts monitoring telemetry data. However, the long duration of future space missions and the high cost of crew time in space creates a powerful economic incentive for the development of highly autonomous knowledge based expert control procedures for these space systems.

  8. The Appropriateness of Renal Angioplasty. The ANPARIA Software: A Multidisciplinary Expert Panel Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Gerbaud, Laurent; Manhes, Geraud; Debourse, Juliette; Gouby, Gerald Glanddier, Phyllis-Yvonne; Vader, John-Paul; Boyer, Louis Deteix, Patrice

    2008-11-15

    Percutaneous transluminal renal angioplasty (PTRA) is an invasive technique that is costly and involves the risk of complications and renal failure. The ability of PTRA to reduce the administration of antihypertensive drugs has been demonstrated. A potentially greater benefit, which nevertheless remains to be proven, is the deferral of the need for chronic dialysis. The aim of the study (ANPARIA) was to assess the appropriateness of PTRA to impact on the evolution of renal function. A standardized expert panel method was used to assess the appropriateness of medical treatment alone or medical treatment with revascularization in various clinical situations. The choice of revascularization by either PTRA or surgery was examined for each clinical situation. Analysis was based on a detailed literature review and on systematically elicited expert opinion, which were obtained during a two-round modified Delphi process. The study provides detailed responses on the appropriateness of PTRA for 1848 distinct clinical scenarios. Depending on the major clinical presentation, appropriateness of revascularization varied from 32% to 75% for individual scenarios (overal 48%). Uncertainty as to revascularization was 41% overall. When revascularization was appropriate, PTRA was favored over surgery in 94% of the scenarios, except in certain cases of aortic atheroma where sugery was the preferred choice. Kidney size >7 cm, absence of coexisting disease, acute renal failure, a high degree of stenosis ({>=}70%), and absence of multiple arteries were identified as predictive variables of favorable appropriateness ratings. Situations such as cardiac failure with pulmonary edema or acute thrombosis of the renal artery were defined as indications for PTRA. This study identified clinical situations in which PTRA or surgery are appropriate for renal artery disease. We built a decision tree which can be used via Internet: the ANPARIA software (http://www

  9. Expert credibility in climate change.

    PubMed

    Anderegg, William R L; Prall, James W; Harold, Jacob; Schneider, Stephen H

    2010-07-01

    Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97-98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.

  10. Uncertainty reasoning in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    1993-01-01

    Intelligent control is a very successful way to transform the expert's knowledge of the type 'if the velocity is big and the distance from the object is small, hit the brakes and decelerate as fast as possible' into an actual control. To apply this transformation, one must choose appropriate methods for reasoning with uncertainty, i.e., one must: (1) choose the representation for words like 'small', 'big'; (2) choose operations corresponding to 'and' and 'or'; (3) choose a method that transforms the resulting uncertain control recommendations into a precise control strategy. The wrong choice can drastically affect the quality of the resulting control, so the problem of choosing the right procedure is very important. From a mathematical viewpoint these choice problems correspond to non-linear optimization and are therefore extremely difficult. In this project, a new mathematical formalism (based on group theory) is developed that allows us to solve the problem of optimal choice and thus: (1) explain why the existing choices are really the best (in some situations); (2) explain a rather mysterious fact that fuzzy control (i.e., control based on the experts' knowledge) is often better than the control by these same experts; and (3) give choice recommendations for the cases when traditional choices do not work.

  11. Expert disagreement in bitemark casework.

    PubMed

    Bowers, C Michael; Pretty, Iain A

    2009-07-01

    Bitemark cases continue to raise controversy due to the degree of expert disagreement which is frequently seen. Using a case mix of 49 bitemark cases from 2000 to 2007 each injury was independently assessed for its forensic significance using a previously described bitemark severity scale. Following the assessment, the mean value for the bites was categorized according to the crime type, the degree of expert agreement, and the judicial outcome. Results suggest that bitemarks found in child abuse cases have statistically significantly lower forensic value than those in other crime types, that bites where there is mutual agreement between experts will have higher forensic value than those where there is disagreement at trial, and that cases in which DNA has provided an exoneration will demonstrate similar quality to those where a conviction was secured. Forensic odontologists should carefully assess bitemark evidence and ensure that it meets certain minimums in relation to the presence of class and unique features before undertaking an analysis. PMID:19486248

  12. Expert searching in public health

    PubMed Central

    Alpi, Kristine M.

    2005-01-01

    Objective: The article explores the characteristics of public health information needs and the resources available to address those needs that distinguish it as an area of searching requiring particular expertise. Methods: Public health searching activities from reference questions and literature search requests at a large, urban health department library were reviewed to identify the challenges in finding relevant public health information. Results: The terminology of the information request frequently differed from the vocabularies available in the databases. Searches required the use of multiple databases and/or Web resources with diverse interfaces. Issues of the scope and features of the databases relevant to the search questions were considered. Conclusion: Expert searching in public health differs from other types of expert searching in the subject breadth and technical demands of the databases to be searched, the fluidity and lack of standardization of the vocabulary, and the relative scarcity of high-quality investigations at the appropriate level of geographic specificity. Health sciences librarians require a broad exposure to databases, gray literature, and public health terminology to perform as expert searchers in public health. PMID:15685281

  13. Onboard navigation rendezvous expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kocen, Michelle

    The Onboard Navigation rendezvous expert system is designed to aid the ground flight controller in monitoring the shuttle onboard navigation system. The system is designed to keep track of the navigation sensors and relative state vectors. In addition, the system also keeps an event log and fills out forms usually handled by the flight controller. This expert system is one of the few rendezvous specific systems being developed for the Mission Control Center. The expert system has been in development for six years. Through these years the system has seen hardware, software, and personnel changes. Initial development was done by the Information Systems Directorate (ISD) and Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at Johnson Space Center. As of October 1, 1991 the system has been turned over to MOD. The system is completely developed except for some minor adjustments to the user interface. The rule base is in the verification stage with total certification of the system due to be completed by May 1992. Test cases for verification are obtained by saving data used for flight controller integrated simulations. The actual data comes from both the shuttle mission simulator and the Mission Control Center Computer. So far no actual flight data has been available. This paper covers all aspects of the system from the development history to the current hardware, software, and use of the system.

  14. Towards a Fuzzy Expert System on Toxicological Data Quality Assessment.

    PubMed

    Yang, Longzhi; Neagu, Daniel; Cronin, Mark T D; Hewitt, Mark; Enoch, Steven J; Madden, Judith C; Przybylak, Katarzyna

    2013-01-01

    Quality assessment (QA) requires high levels of domain-specific experience and knowledge. QA tasks for toxicological data are usually performed by human experts manually, although a number of quality evaluation schemes have been proposed in the literature. For instance, the most widely utilised Klimisch scheme1 defines four data quality categories in order to tag data instances with respect to their qualities; ToxRTool2 is an extension of the Klimisch approach aiming to increase the transparency and harmonisation of the approach. Note that the processes of QA in many other areas have been automatised by employing expert systems. Briefly, an expert system is a computer program that uses a knowledge base built upon human expertise, and an inference engine that mimics the reasoning processes of human experts to infer new statements from incoming data. In particular, expert systems have been extended to deal with the uncertainty of information by representing uncertain information (such as linguistic terms) as fuzzy sets under the framework of fuzzy set theory and performing inferences upon fuzzy sets according to fuzzy arithmetic. This paper presents an experimental fuzzy expert system for toxicological data QA which is developed on the basis of the Klimisch approach and the ToxRTool in an effort to illustrate the power of expert systems to toxicologists, and to examine if fuzzy expert systems are a viable solution for QA of toxicological data. Such direction still faces great difficulties due to the well-known common challenge of toxicological data QA that "five toxicologists may have six opinions". In the meantime, this challenge may offer an opportunity for expert systems because the construction and refinement of the knowledge base could be a converging process of different opinions which is of significant importance for regulatory policy making under the regulation of REACH, though a consensus may never be reached. Also, in order to facilitate the implementation

  15. Elicitation: a tool for enriching the bioactive composition of foods.

    PubMed

    Baenas, Nieves; García-Viguera, Cristina; Moreno, Diego A

    2014-01-01

    Elicitation is a good strategy to induce physiological changes and stimulate defense or stress-induced responses in plants. The elicitor treatments trigger the synthesis of phytochemical compounds in fruits, vegetables and herbs. These metabolites have been widely investigated as bioactive compounds responsible of plant cell adaptation to the environment, specific organoleptic properties of foods, and protective effects in human cells against oxidative processes in the development of neurodegenerative and cardiovascular diseases and certain types of cancer. Biotic (biological origin), abiotic (chemical or physical origin) elicitors and phytohormones have been applied alone or in combinations, in hydroponic solutions or sprays, and in different selected time points of the plant growth or during post-harvest. Understanding how plant tissues and their specific secondary metabolic pathways respond to specific treatments with elicitors would be the basis for designing protocols to enhance the production of secondary metabolites, in order to produce quality and healthy fresh foods. PMID:25255755

  16. Ontological leveling and elicitation for complex industrial transactions

    SciTech Connect

    Phillips, L.R.; Goldsmith, S.Y.; Spires, S.V.

    1998-11-01

    The authors present an agent-oriented mechanism that uses a central ontology as a means to conduct complex distributed transactions. This is done by instantiating a template object motivated solely by the ontology, then automatically and explicitly linking each temple element to an independently constructed interface component. Validation information is attached directly to the links so that the agent need not know a priori the semantics of data validity, merely how to execute a general validation process to satisfy the conditions given in the link. Ontological leveling is critical: all terms presented to informants must be semantically coherent within the central ontology. To illustrate this approach in an industrial setting, they discuss an existing implementation that conducted international commercial transactions on the World-Wide Web. Agents operating within a federated architecture construct, populate by Web-based elicitation, and manipulate a distributed composite transaction object to effect transport of goods over the US/Mexico border.

  17. Using XML and XSLT for flexible elicitation of mental-health risk knowledge.

    PubMed

    Buckingham, C D; Ahmed, A; Adams, A E

    2007-03-01

    Current tools for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems require assessors to make high-level judgements based on clinical experience. This paper describes how new technologies can enhance qualitative research methods to identify lower-level cues underlying these judgements, which can be collected by people without a specialist mental-health background. Content analysis of interviews with 46 multidisciplinary mental-health experts exposed the cues and their interrelationships, which were represented by a mind map using software that stores maps as XML. All 46 mind maps were integrated into a single XML knowledge structure and analysed by a Lisp program to generate quantitative information about the numbers of experts associated with each part of it. The knowledge was refined by the experts, using software developed in Flash to record their collective views within the XML itself. These views specified how the XML should be transformed by XSLT, a technology for rendering XML, which resulted in a validated hierarchical knowledge structure associating patient cues with risks. Changing knowledge elicitation requirements were accommodated by flexible transformations of XML data using XSLT, which also facilitated generation of multiple data-gathering tools suiting different assessment circumstances and levels of mental-health knowledge. PMID:17365646

  18. Cataloging Expert Systems: Optimism and Frustrated Reality.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olmstadt, William J.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses artificial intelligence and attempts to catalog expert systems. Topics include the nature of expertise; examples of cataloging expert systems; barriers to implementation; and problems, including total automation, cataloging expertise, priorities, and system design. (LRW)

  19. Galaxy Classification: Citizen Scientists versus Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kautsch, Stefan J.; Vazquez, Richard; Phung, Chau; VanHilst, Michael; Castro, Victor H.; Bizyaev, Dmitry

    2016-01-01

    We present the differences of morphological galaxy classification between non-experts and experts. The non-experts are represented by college students and a retired adult community, who use an online application to visually classify galaxies selected from a galaxy morphology catalog. We find that the non-expert group lags the expert classification by one Hubble type behind, for instance, the non-experts classify a set of galaxies with Sb, while the experts classify the same set as Sc. We believe the reason is because the Hubble sequence is increasing the asymmetric structures towards later types. Our results show that the experts have the ability to identify more detailed structures, which the laymen commonly do not recognize.

  20. Expert judgments about RD&D and the future of nuclear energy.

    PubMed

    Anadón, Laura D; Bosetti, Valentina; Bunn, Matthew; Catenacci, Michela; Lee, Audrey

    2012-11-01

    Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. We used a novel elicitation approach which combined individual and group elicitation. With no change from current RD&D funding levels, experts on average expected current (Gen. III/III+) designs to be somewhat more expensive in 2030 than they were in 2010, and they expected the next generation of designs (Gen. IV) to be more expensive still as of 2030. Projected costs of proposed small modular reactors (SMRs) were similar to those of Gen. IV systems. The experts almost unanimously recommended large increases in government support for nuclear RD&D (generally 2-3 times current spending). The majority expected that such RD&D would have only a modest effect on cost, but would improve performance in other areas, such as safety, waste management, and uranium resource utilization. The U.S. and E.U. experts were in relative agreement regarding how government RD&D funds should be allocated, placing particular focus on very high temperature reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, fuels and materials, and fuel cycle technologies.

  1. Expert judgments about RD&D and the future of nuclear energy.

    PubMed

    Anadón, Laura D; Bosetti, Valentina; Bunn, Matthew; Catenacci, Michela; Lee, Audrey

    2012-11-01

    Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. We used a novel elicitation approach which combined individual and group elicitation. With no change from current RD&D funding levels, experts on average expected current (Gen. III/III+) designs to be somewhat more expensive in 2030 than they were in 2010, and they expected the next generation of designs (Gen. IV) to be more expensive still as of 2030. Projected costs of proposed small modular reactors (SMRs) were similar to those of Gen. IV systems. The experts almost unanimously recommended large increases in government support for nuclear RD&D (generally 2-3 times current spending). The majority expected that such RD&D would have only a modest effect on cost, but would improve performance in other areas, such as safety, waste management, and uranium resource utilization. The U.S. and E.U. experts were in relative agreement regarding how government RD&D funds should be allocated, placing particular focus on very high temperature reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, fuels and materials, and fuel cycle technologies. PMID:23002786

  2. A middle man approach to knowledge acquisition in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jordan, Janice A.; Lin, Min-Jin; Mayer, Richard J.; Sterle, Mark E.

    1990-01-01

    The Weed Control Advisor (WCA) is a robust expert system that has been successfully implemented on an IBM AT class microcomputer in CLIPS. The goal of the WCA was to demonstrate the feasibility of providing an economical, efficient, user friendly system through which Texas rice producers could obtain expert level knowledge regarding herbicide application for weed control. During the development phase of the WCA, an improved knowledge acquisition method which we call the Middle Man Approach (MMA) was applied to facilitate the communication process between the domain experts and the knowledge engineer. The MMA served to circumvent the problems associated with the more traditional forms of knowledge acquisition by placing the Middle Man, a semi-expert in the problem domain with some computer expertise, at the site of system development. The middle man was able to contribute to system development in two major ways. First, the Middle Man had experience working in rice production and could assume many of the responsibilities normally performed by the domain experts such as explaining the background of the problem domain and determining the important relations. Second, the Middle Man was familiar with computers and worked closely with the system developers to update the rules after the domain experts reviewed the prototype, contribute to the help menus and explanation portions of the expert system, conduct the testing that is required to insure that the expert system gives the expected results answer questions in a timely way, help the knowledge engineer structure the domain knowledge into a useable form, and provide insight into the end user's profile which helped in the development of the simple user friendly interface. The final results were not only that both time expended and costs were greatly reduced by using the MMA, but the quality of the system was improved. This papa will introduce the WCA system and then discuss traditional knowledge acquisition along with

  3. SciVal Experts: a collaborative tool.

    PubMed

    Vardell, Emily; Feddern-Bekcan, Tanya; Moore, Mary

    2011-01-01

    SciVal Experts is a resource for finding experts and fostering collaboration. The tool creates researcher profiles with automatically updated publication and grant information and faculty-inputted curriculum vitae, more fully capturing a researcher's body of work. SciVal Experts indexes campus-based "experts" by research topic, allowing faculty to find potential research partners and mentors, furthering translational research opportunities and dissemination of knowledge.

  4. Expert systems applied to spacecraft fire safety

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Richard L.; Kashiwagi, Takashi

    1989-01-01

    Expert systems are problem-solving programs that combine a knowledge base and a reasoning mechanism to simulate a human expert. The development of an expert system to manage fire safety in spacecraft, in particular the NASA Space Station Freedom, is difficult but clearly advantageous in the long-term. Some needs in low-gravity flammability characteristics, ventilating-flow effects, fire detection, fire extinguishment, and decision models, all necessary to establish the knowledge base for an expert system, are discussed.

  5. Differential Neural Activity during Search of Specific and General Autobiographical Memories Elicited by Musical Cues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ford, Jaclyn Hennessey; Addis, Donna Rose; Giovanello, Kelly S.

    2011-01-01

    Previous neuroimaging studies that have examined autobiographical memory specificity have utilized retrieval cues associated with prior searches of the event, potentially changing the retrieval processes being investigated. In the current study, musical cues were used to naturally elicit memories from multiple levels of specificity (i.e., lifetime…

  6. Acting green elicits a literal warm glow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taufik, Danny; Bolderdijk, Jan Willem; Steg, Linda

    2015-01-01

    Environmental policies are often based on the assumption that people only act environmentally friendly if some extrinsic reward is implicated, usually money. We argue that people might also be motivated by intrinsic rewards: doing the right thing (such as acting environmentally friendly) elicits psychological rewards in the form of positive feelings, a phenomenon known as warm glow. Given the fact that people's psychological state may affect their thermal state, we expected that this warm glow could express itself quite literally: people who act environmentally friendly may perceive the temperature to be higher. In two studies, we found that people who learned they acted environmentally friendly perceived a higher temperature than people who learned they acted environmentally unfriendly. The underlying psychological mechanism pertains to the self-concept: learning you acted environmentally friendly signals to yourself that you are a good person. Together, our studies show that acting environmentally friendly can be psychologically rewarding, suggesting that appealing to intrinsic rewards can be an alternative way to encourage pro-environmental actions.

  7. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

    1993-12-31

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature.

  8. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

    1994-09-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature.

  9. What Is An Expert System? ERIC Digest.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boss, Richard W.

    This digest describes and defines the various components of an expert system, e.g., a computerized tool designed to enhance the quality and availability of knowledge required by decision makers. It is noted that expert systems differ from conventional applications software in the following areas: (1) the existence of the expert systems shell, or…

  10. Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…

  11. Expert Systems and Intelligent Information Retrieval.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brooks, H. M.

    1987-01-01

    Explores what an intelligent information retrieval system involves and why expert system techniques might interest system designers. Expert systems research is reviewed with emphasis on components, architecture, and computer interaction, and it is concluded that information retrieval is not an ideal problem domain for expert system application at…

  12. 16 CFR 1025.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Expert witnesses. 1025.44 Section 1025.44 Commercial Practices CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY COMMISSION GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Hearings § 1025.44 Expert witnesses. (a) Definition. An expert witness is one who, by reason of education, training, experience,...

  13. 16 CFR 1025.44 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Expert witnesses. 1025.44 Section 1025.44 Commercial Practices CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY COMMISSION GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Hearings § 1025.44 Expert witnesses. (a) Definition. An expert witness is one who, by reason of education, training, experience,...

  14. Stochastic population forecasting based on combinations of expert evaluations within the Bayesian paradigm.

    PubMed

    Billari, Francesco C; Graziani, Rebecca; Melilli, Eugenio

    2014-10-01

    This article suggests a procedure to derive stochastic population forecasts adopting an expert-based approach. As in previous work by Billari et al. (2012), experts are required to provide evaluations, in the form of conditional and unconditional scenarios, on summary indicators of the demographic components determining the population evolution: that is, fertility, mortality, and migration. Here, two main purposes are pursued. First, the demographic components are allowed to have some kind of dependence. Second, as a result of the existence of a body of shared information, possible correlations among experts are taken into account. In both cases, the dependence structure is not imposed by the researcher but rather is indirectly derived through the scenarios elicited from the experts. To address these issues, the method is based on a mixture model, within the so-called Supra-Bayesian approach, according to which expert evaluations are treated as data. The derived posterior distribution for the demographic indicators of interest is used as forecasting distribution, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is designed to approximate this posterior. This article provides the questionnaire designed by the authors to collect expert opinions. Finally, an application to the forecast of the Italian population from 2010 to 2065 is proposed.

  15. Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles' nesting grounds.

    PubMed

    Fuentes, M M P B; Cinner, J E

    2010-12-01

    Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles' terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world's largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles' reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern. PMID:20702026

  16. Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles' nesting grounds.

    PubMed

    Fuentes, M M P B; Cinner, J E

    2010-12-01

    Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles' terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world's largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles' reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern.

  17. Expert Meeting Report. Foundations Research Results

    SciTech Connect

    Ojczyk, C.; Huelman, P.; Carmody, J.

    2013-05-01

    The NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership held an expert meeting on Foundations–Research Results on November 15, 2011, in Minneapolis, MN. Audience participation was actively encouraged during each presentation to uncover needs and promote dialog among researchers and industry professionals. Key results were: greater understanding of the role of moisture transport through foundation and insulation materials and its potential impact on building durability; greater understanding of the role of foundation type in the process of selecting an insulation system for energy performance and building durability; need for research to quantify the risks associated with insulation processes to better enable users to weigh costs and benefits against the existing conditions of a home; need for improved performance modeling capabilities that address variations in foundation types and soil conditions.

  18. Explanation production by expert planners

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bridges, Susan; Jhannes, James D.

    1988-01-01

    Although the explanation capability of expert systems is usually listed as one of the distinguishing characteristics of these systems, the explanation facilities of most existing systems are quite primitive. Computer generated explanations are typically produced from canned text or by direct translation of the knowledge structures. Explanations produced in this manner bear little resemblance to those produced by humans for similar tasks. The focus of our research in explanation is the production of justifications for decisions by expert planning systems. An analysis of justifications written by people for planning tasks has been taken as the starting point. The purpose of this analysis is two-fold. First, analysis of the information content of the justifications will provide a basis for deciding what knowledge must be represented if human-like justifications are to be produced. Second, an analysis of the textual organization of the justifications will be used in the development of a mechanism for selecting and organizing the knowledge to be included in a computer-produced explanation. This paper describes a preliminary analysis done of justifications written by people for a planning task. It is clear that these justifications differ significantly from those that would be produced by an expert system by tracing the firing of production rules. The results from the text analysis have been used to develop an augmented phrase structured grammar (APSG) describing the organization of the justifications. The grammar was designed to provide a computationally feasible method for determining textual organization that will allow the necessary information to be communicated in a cohesive manner.

  19. World Ocean Assessment experts needed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2012-07-01

    The United Nations (UN) is inviting interested scientists to apply to be members of an international pool of 1000-2000 experts who will be authors and reviewers of its first World Ocean Assessment (WOA) report, slated for completion in 2014. The UN anticipates that subsequent WOA reports will be generated on a 5-year cycle. The first report will include more than 50 subjects grouped within four main themes: marine environment and understanding of the ocean's role in the global integrated Earth system, food security and safety, human activities that influence the ocean or are influenced by the ocean, and marine biological diversity. A scientific and technical summary is also planned.

  20. Expert system for train control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drish, William F., Jr.

    1995-08-01

    The train energy model (TEM), a general train simulator developed at the Association of American Railroads, is widely used in the railroad industry. Recently, a new train controller, the general automatic train-controller (GAT), has been developed for TEM. In the GAT, the 'intelligence' or 'expertise' is a set of 'if-then' train-handling rules in an external file. The expert system for train control presented in this paper is a slightly simplified version of the GAT. The main thesis of this paper is: simple, unchained rules are adequate for complex train control. Thus, an 'inference engine' using forward chaining is not required.

  1. Fuzzy expert systems using CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Le, Thach C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a CLIPS-based fuzzy expert system development environment called FCLIPS and illustrates its application to the simulated cart-pole balancing problem. FCLIPS is a straightforward extension of CLIPS without any alteration to the CLIPS internal structures. It makes use of the object-oriented and module features in CLIPS version 6.0 for the implementation of fuzzy logic concepts. Systems of varying degrees of mixed Boolean and fuzzy rules can be implemented in CLIPS. Design and implementation issues of FCLIPS will also be discussed.

  2. Cripto-1 vaccination elicits protective immunity against metastatic melanoma.

    PubMed

    Ligtenberg, M A; Witt, K; Galvez-Cancino, F; Sette, A; Lundqvist, A; Lladser, A; Kiessling, R

    2016-05-01

    Metastatic melanoma is a fatal disease that responds poorly to classical treatments but can be targeted by T cell-based immunotherapy. Cancer vaccines have the potential to generate long-lasting cytotoxic CD8(+) T cell responses able to eradicate established and disseminated tumors. Vaccination against antigens expressed by tumor cells with enhanced metastatic potential represents a highly attractive strategy to efficiently target deadly metastatic disease. Cripto-1 is frequently over-expressed in human carcinomas and melanomas, but is expressed only at low levels on normal differentiated tissues. Cripto-1 is particularly upregulated in cancer-initiating cells and is involved in cellular processes such as cell migration, invasion and epithelial-mesenchymal transition, which are hallmarks of aggressive cancer cells able to initiate metastatic disease. Here, we explored the potential of Cripto-1 vaccination to target metastatic melanoma in a preclinical model. Cripto-1 was overexpressed in highly metastatic B16F10 cells as compared to poorly metastatic B16F1 cells. Moreover, B16F10 cells grown in sphere conditions to enrich for cancer stem cells (CSC) progressively upregulated cripto1 expression. Vaccination of C57Bl/6 mice with a DNA vaccine encoding mouse Cripto-1 elicited a readily detectable/strong cytotoxic CD8(+) T cell response specific for a H-2 Kb-restricted epitope identified based on its ability to bind H-2(b) molecules. Remarkably, Cripto-1 vaccination elicited a protective response against lung metastasis and subcutaneous challenges with highly metastatic B16F10 melanoma cells. Our data indicate that vaccination against Cripto-1 represents a novel strategy to be tested in the clinic. PMID:27467944

  3. Introducing Forum Theatre to Elicit and Advocate Children's Views

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hammond, Nick

    2013-01-01

    Eliciting and advocating the voice of the child remains at the heart of international political agenda and also remains a central role for educational psychologists (EPs). Previous research indicates that EPs tend to use language-based methods for eliciting and advocating views of children. However, these approaches are often limited. Taking a…

  4. Freeze or Flee? Negative Stimuli Elicit Selective Responding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Estes, Zachary; Verges, Michelle

    2008-01-01

    Humans preferentially attend to negative stimuli. A consequence of this automatic vigilance for negative valence is that negative words elicit slower responses than neutral or positive words on a host of cognitive tasks. Some researchers have speculated that negative stimuli elicit a general suppression of motor activity, akin to the freezing…

  5. Science Teachers' Elicitation Practices: Insights for Formative Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ateh, Comfort M.

    2015-01-01

    In evaluating teachers' instructional decisions during instruction, it is clear that the nature of their elicitation is crucial for student learning. When instructional decisions are informed by information about students' conceptual understanding, significant learning is possible. This article examined the elicitation practices of two high school…

  6. Elicited Emotions and Cognitive Functioning in Preschool Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blau, Rivka; Klein, Pnina S.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, the effects of eliciting positive and negative emotions on various cognitive functions of four- to five-year-old preschool children were examined. Emotions were elicited through presentations of "happy" and "sad" video clips, before the children performed the cognitive tasks. Behavioural (facial expressions) and physiological (heart…

  7. Expert witness testimony guidelines: identifying areas for improvement.

    PubMed

    Svider, Peter F; Eloy, Jean Anderson; Baredes, Soly; Setzen, Michael; Folbe, Adam J

    2015-02-01

    Expert witnesses play an invaluable, if controversial, role by deciphering medical events for juries in cases of alleged negligence. We review expert witness guidelines among major surgical societies and identify gaps within these standards, as our hope is that this spurs discussion addressing areas for improvement. Of 8 surgical societies with accessible guidelines, none included specific compensation guidelines or limits, detailed reporting mechanisms regarding unethical behavior by legal professionals, or addressed the appropriateness of testifying frequently and exclusively for one side. Several processes possibly deterring grossly inaccurate testimony have been adopted by other surgical societies and should potentially be addressed by the American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery. These include offering an expert witness testimony certification path, strengthening the formalized grievance process, and encouraging members to sign an affirmation statement. PMID:25389319

  8. Expert-novice differences in SMR activity during dart throwing.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Ming-Yang; Hung, Chiao-Ling; Huang, Chung-Ju; Chang, Yu-Kai; Lo, Li-Chuan; Shen, Cheng; Hung, Tsung-Min

    2015-09-01

    Previous evidence suggests that augmented sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) activity is related to the superior regulation of processing cognitive-motor information in motor performance. However, no published studies have examined the relationship between SMR and performance in precision sports; thus, this study examined the relationship between SMR activity and the level of skilled performance in tasks requiring high levels of attention (e.g., dart throwing). We hypothesized that skilled performance would be associated with higher SMR activity. Fourteen dart-throwing experts and eleven novices were recruited. Participants were requested to perform 60 dart throws while EEG was recorded. The 2(Group: Expert, Novice)×2(Time window: -2000 ms to -1000 ms, -1000 ms to 0 ms) ANOVA showed that the dart-throwing experts maintained a relatively higher SMR power than the novices before dart release. These results suggest that SMR might reflect the adaptive regulation of cognitive-motor processing during the preparatory period. PMID:26277266

  9. Hypercube expert system shell-applying production parallelism. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Harding, W.A.

    1989-12-01

    This research investigation proposes a hypercube design which supports efficient symbolic computing to permit real-time control of an air vehicle by an expert system. Design efforts are aimed at alleviating common expert system bottlenecks, such as the inefficiency of symbolic programming languages like Lisp and the disproportionate amount of computation time commonly spent in the match phase of the expert system match-select-act cycle. Faster processing of Robotic Air Vehicle (RAV) expert system software is approached through (1) fast production matching using the state-saving Rete match algorithm, (2) efficient shell implementation using the C-Programming Language and (3) parallel processing of the RAV using multiple copies of a serial expert system shell. In this investigation, the serial C-Language Integrated Production System shell is modified to execute in parallel on the iPSC/2 Hypercube. Speedups achieved using this architecture are quantified through theoretical timing analysis, and comparison with serial architecture performance results, with earlier designs performance results, with best case results and with goal performance.

  10. CRN5EXP: Expert system for statistical quality control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hentea, Mariana

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of the Expert System CRN5EXP is to assist in checking the quality of the coils at two very important mills: Hot Rolling and Cold Rolling in a steel plant. The system interprets the statistical quality control charts, diagnoses and predicts the quality of the steel. Measurements of process control variables are recorded in a database and sample statistics such as the mean and the range are computed and plotted on a control chart. The chart is analyzed through patterns using the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) and a forward chaining technique to reach a conclusion about the causes of defects and to take management measures for the improvement of the quality control techniques. The Expert System combines the certainty factors associated with the process control variables to predict the quality of the steel. The paper presents the approach to extract data from the database, the reason to combine certainty factors, the architecture and the use of the Expert System. However, the interpretation of control charts patterns requires the human expert's knowledge and lends to Expert Systems rules.

  11. Species identification by experts and non-experts: comparing images from field guides

    PubMed Central

    Austen, G. E.; Bindemann, M.; Griffiths, R. A.; Roberts, D. L.

    2016-01-01

    Accurate species identification is fundamental when recording ecological data. However, the ability to correctly identify organisms visually is rarely questioned. We investigated how experts and non-experts compared in the identification of bumblebees, a group of insects of considerable conservation concern. Experts and non-experts were asked whether two concurrent bumblebee images depicted the same or two different species. Overall accuracy was below 60% and comparable for experts and non-experts. However, experts were more consistent in their answers when the same images were repeated, and more cautious in committing to a definitive answer. Our findings demonstrate the difficulty of correctly identifying bumblebees using images from field guides. Such error rates need to be accounted for when interpreting species data, whether or not they have been collected by experts. We suggest that investigation of how experts and non-experts make observations should be incorporated into study design, and could be used to improve training in species identification. PMID:27644140

  12. Species identification by experts and non-experts: comparing images from field guides.

    PubMed

    Austen, G E; Bindemann, M; Griffiths, R A; Roberts, D L

    2016-01-01

    Accurate species identification is fundamental when recording ecological data. However, the ability to correctly identify organisms visually is rarely questioned. We investigated how experts and non-experts compared in the identification of bumblebees, a group of insects of considerable conservation concern. Experts and non-experts were asked whether two concurrent bumblebee images depicted the same or two different species. Overall accuracy was below 60% and comparable for experts and non-experts. However, experts were more consistent in their answers when the same images were repeated, and more cautious in committing to a definitive answer. Our findings demonstrate the difficulty of correctly identifying bumblebees using images from field guides. Such error rates need to be accounted for when interpreting species data, whether or not they have been collected by experts. We suggest that investigation of how experts and non-experts make observations should be incorporated into study design, and could be used to improve training in species identification. PMID:27644140

  13. Embedding Human Expert Cognition Into Autonomous UAS Trajectory Planning.

    PubMed

    Narayan, Pritesh; Meyer, Patrick; Campbell, Duncan

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents a new approach for the inclusion of human expert cognition into autonomous trajectory planning for unmanned aerial systems (UASs) operating in low-altitude environments. During typical UAS operations, multiple objectives may exist; therefore, the use of multicriteria decision aid techniques can potentially allow for convergence to trajectory solutions which better reflect overall mission requirements. In that context, additive multiattribute value theory has been applied to optimize trajectories with respect to multiple objectives. A graphical user interface was developed to allow for knowledge capture from a human decision maker (HDM) through simulated decision scenarios. The expert decision data gathered are converted into value functions and corresponding criteria weightings using utility additive theory. The inclusion of preferences elicited from HDM data within an automated decision system allows for the generation of trajectories which more closely represent the candidate HDM decision preferences. This approach has been demonstrated in this paper through simulation using a fixed-wing UAS operating in low-altitude environments.

  14. StarPower: Elevating Prospective Student Interest through Expert and Celebrity Endorsements--Relevant Message, Relevant Media

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucciarone, Kristy

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates how universities can increase the effectiveness of the search process by featuring in their advertisements expert and celebrity endorsers who attended the institution. How can universities gain the attention of prospective students using the star power of experts and celebrities? Experts and celebrities promoting a…

  15. Exploring Self-regulation of More or Less Expert College-Age Video Game Players: A Sequential Explanatory Design

    PubMed Central

    Yilmaz Soylu, Meryem; Bruning, Roger H.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined differences in self-regulation among college-age expert, moderately expert, and non-expert video game players in playing video games for fun. Winne's model of self-regulation (Winne, 2001) guided the study. The main assumption of this study was that expert video game players used more processes of self-regulation than the less-expert players. We surveyed 143 college students about their game playing frequency, habits, and use of self-regulation. Data analysis indicated that while playing recreational video games, expert gamers self-regulated more than moderately expert and non-expert players and moderately expert players used more processes of self-regulation than non-experts. Semi-structured interviews also were conducted with selected participants at each of the expertise levels. Qualitative follow-up analyses revealed five themes: (1) characteristics of expert video gamers, (2) conditions for playing a video game, (3) figuring out a game, (4) how gamers act and, (5) game context. Overall, findings indicated that playing a video game is a highly self-regulated activity and that becoming an expert video game player mobilizes multiple sets of self-regulation related skills and processes. These findings are seen as promising for educators desiring to encourage student self-regulation, because they indicate the possibility of supporting students via recreational video games by recognizing that their play includes processes of self-regulation. PMID:27729881

  16. The Nature of Expertise in Fingerprint Matching: Experts Can Do a Lot with a Little

    PubMed Central

    Thompson, Matthew B.; Tangen, Jason M.

    2014-01-01

    Expert decision making often seems impressive, even miraculous. People with genuine expertise in a particular domain can perform quickly and accurately, and with little information. In the series of experiments presented here, we manipulate the amount of “information” available to a group of experts whose job it is to identify the source of crime scene fingerprints. In Experiment 1, we reduced the amount of information available to experts by inverting fingerprint pairs and adding visual noise. There was no evidence for an inversion effect—experts were just as accurate for inverted prints as they were for upright prints—but expert performance with artificially noisy prints was impressive. In Experiment 2, we separated matching and nonmatching print pairs in time. Experts were conservative, but they were still able to discriminate pairs of fingerprints that were separated by five-seconds, even though the task was quite different from their everyday experience. In Experiment 3, we separated the print pairs further in time to test the long-term memory of experts compared to novices. Long-term recognition memory for experts and novices was the same, with both performing around chance. In Experiment 4, we presented pairs of fingerprints quickly to experts and novices in a matching task. Experts were more accurate than novices, particularly for similar nonmatching pairs, and experts were generally more accurate when they had more time. It is clear that experts can match prints accurately when there is reduced visual information, reduced opportunity for direct comparison, and reduced time to engage in deliberate reasoning. These findings suggest that non-analytic processing accounts for a substantial portion of the variance in expert fingerprint matching accuracy. Our conclusion is at odds with general wisdom in fingerprint identification practice and formal training, and at odds with the claims and explanations that are offered in court during expert testimony

  17. The nature of expertise in fingerprint matching: experts can do a lot with a little.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Matthew B; Tangen, Jason M

    2014-01-01

    Expert decision making often seems impressive, even miraculous. People with genuine expertise in a particular domain can perform quickly and accurately, and with little information. In the series of experiments presented here, we manipulate the amount of "information" available to a group of experts whose job it is to identify the source of crime scene fingerprints. In Experiment 1, we reduced the amount of information available to experts by inverting fingerprint pairs and adding visual noise. There was no evidence for an inversion effect-experts were just as accurate for inverted prints as they were for upright prints-but expert performance with artificially noisy prints was impressive. In Experiment 2, we separated matching and nonmatching print pairs in time. Experts were conservative, but they were still able to discriminate pairs of fingerprints that were separated by five-seconds, even though the task was quite different from their everyday experience. In Experiment 3, we separated the print pairs further in time to test the long-term memory of experts compared to novices. Long-term recognition memory for experts and novices was the same, with both performing around chance. In Experiment 4, we presented pairs of fingerprints quickly to experts and novices in a matching task. Experts were more accurate than novices, particularly for similar nonmatching pairs, and experts were generally more accurate when they had more time. It is clear that experts can match prints accurately when there is reduced visual information, reduced opportunity for direct comparison, and reduced time to engage in deliberate reasoning. These findings suggest that non-analytic processing accounts for a substantial portion of the variance in expert fingerprint matching accuracy. Our conclusion is at odds with general wisdom in fingerprint identification practice and formal training, and at odds with the claims and explanations that are offered in court during expert testimony.

  18. [Psychological expert assessment as an intervention in child custody conflicts during divorce].

    PubMed

    Scheuerer-Englisch, H; Suess, G J; Schwabe-Höllein, M

    1994-12-01

    How to deal appropriately with families affected by divorce has also been discussed among psychological experts for years. In this article the psychological expert opinion in a divorce is described as a possibility of intervention in a current separation conflict. Based upon a process oriented and systemic point of view the corresponding main principles and approaches are described which are essential for the task of forming an expert opinion in such a conflict.

  19. Experts bodies, experts minds: How physical and mental training shape the brain

    PubMed Central

    Debarnot, Ursula; Sperduti, Marco; Di Rienzo, Franck; Guillot, Aymeric

    2014-01-01

    Skill learning is the improvement in perceptual, cognitive, or motor performance following practice. Expert performance levels can be achieved with well-organized knowledge, using sophisticated and specific mental representations and cognitive processing, applying automatic sequences quickly and efficiently, being able to deal with large amounts of information, and many other challenging task demands and situations that otherwise paralyze the performance of novices. The neural reorganizations that occur with expertise reflect the optimization of the neurocognitive resources to deal with the complex computational load needed to achieve peak performance. As such, capitalizing on neuronal plasticity, brain modifications take place over time-practice and during the consolidation process. One major challenge is to investigate the neural substrates and cognitive mechanisms engaged in expertise, and to define “expertise” from its neural and cognitive underpinnings. Recent insights showed that many brain structures are recruited during task performance, but only activity in regions related to domain-specific knowledge distinguishes experts from novices. The present review focuses on three expertise domains placed across a motor to mental gradient of skill learning: sequential motor skill, mental simulation of the movement (motor imagery), and meditation as a paradigmatic example of “pure” mental training. We first describe results on each specific domain from the initial skill acquisition to expert performance, including recent results on the corresponding underlying neural mechanisms. We then discuss differences and similarities between these domains with the aim to identify the highlights of the neurocognitive processes underpinning expertise, and conclude with suggestions for future research. PMID:24847236

  20. Expert-System Consultant To Operating Personnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heard, Astrid E.; Pinkowski, Patrick P.; Adler, Richard M.; Hosken, R. Bruce

    1992-01-01

    Artificial intelligence aids engineers and technicians in controlling and monitoring complicated systems. Operations Analyst for Distributed Systems (OPERA) software is developmental suite of expert-system computer programs helping engineers and technicians operating from number of computer workstations to control and monitor spacecraft during prelaunch and launch phases of operation. OPERA designed to serve as consultant to operating engineers and technicians. It preprocesses incoming data, using expertise collected from conglomerate of specialists in design and operation of various parts of system. Driven by menus and mouse-activated commands. Modified versions of OPERA used in chemical-processing plants, factories, banks, and other enterprises in which there are distributed-computer systems including computers that monitor or control other computers.

  1. Program for Experimentation With Expert Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Engle, S. W.

    1986-01-01

    CERBERUS is forward-chaining, knowledge-based system program useful for experimentation with expert systems. Inference-engine mechanism performs deductions according to user-supplied rule set. Information stored in intermediate area, and user interrogated only when no applicable data found in storage. Each assertion posed by CERBERUS answered with certainty ranging from 0 to 100 percent. Rule processor stops investigating applicable rules when goal reaches certainty of 95 percent or higher. Capable of operating for wide variety of domains. Sample rule files included for animal identification, pixel classification in image processing, and rudimentary car repair for novice mechanic. User supplies set of end goals or actions. System complexity decided by user's rule file. CERBERUS written in FORTRAN 77.

  2. Using Filmed Expert Demonstrations in Counsellor Education: Suggestions and Recommendations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keats, Patrice A.

    2009-01-01

    Although research exists about student learning processes using filmed experts demonstrating counselling systems and skills, there appears to be no formal direction or advice for instructors or supervisors on how to view, use, or teach with these types of films. This article attempts to fill this gap by combining ideas from the literature on…

  3. Planning Perspectives by Academic, Business, Lay, and Teacher Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herbert, Margaret E.; Dionne, Jean-Paul

    The cognitive processes of planning operationalize many of the metacognitive abilities necessary for transfer of knowledge. A telephone survey of 30 adults and Delphi methodology were used to explore the vocabulary and content of the mental representations of the nature and function of planning as perceived by experts in cognitive psychology…

  4. Automated Tools for Subject Matter Expert Evaluation of Automated Scoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williamson, David M.; Bejar, Isaac I.; Sax, Anne

    2004-01-01

    As automated scoring of complex constructed-response examinations reaches operational status, the process of evaluating the quality of resultant scores, particularly in contrast to scores of expert human graders, becomes as complex as the data itself. Using a vignette from the Architectural Registration Examination (ARE), this article explores the…

  5. The Metamorphosis of Industrial Designers from Novices to Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wong, Ju-Joan; Chen, Po-Yu; Chen, Chun-Di

    2016-01-01

    Professional training for designers is crucial in the field of design studies. The characteristics of novices versus those of expert designers have been identified in the literature; however, studies exploring the issue of professional training processes in the actual workplace are not well developed. Our study addresses the topic by using…

  6. 37 CFR 104.23 - Expert or opinion testimony.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Expert or opinion testimony. 104.23 Section 104.23 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE ADMINISTRATION LEGAL PROCESSES Employee Testimony and Production of Documents in...

  7. YUCSA: A CLIPS expert database system to monitor academic performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Toptsis, Anestis A.; Ho, Frankie; Leindekar, Milton; Foon, Debra Low; Carbonaro, Mike

    1991-01-01

    The York University CLIPS Student Administrator (YUCSA), an expert database system implemented in C Language Integrated Processing System (CLIPS), for monitoring the academic performance of undergraduate students at York University, is discussed. The expert system component in the system has already been implemented for two major departments, and it is under testing and enhancement for more departments. Also, more elaborate user interfaces are under development. We describe the design and implementation of the system, problems encountered, and immediate future plans. The system has excellent maintainability and it is very efficient, taking less than one minute to complete an assessment of one student.

  8. Semantic web ontology utilization for heart failure expert system design.

    PubMed

    Prcela, Marin; Gamberger, Dragan; Jovic, Alan

    2008-01-01

    In this work we present the usage of semantic web knowledge representation formalism in combination with general purpose reasoning for building a medical expert system. The properties of the approach have been studied on the example of the knowledge base construction for decision support tasks in the heart failure domain. The work consisted of descriptive knowledge presentation in the ontological form and its integration with the heart failure procedural knowledge. In this setting instance checking in description logic represents the main process of the expert system reasoning.

  9. Evaluation of expert system application based on usability aspects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munaiseche, C. P. C.; Liando, O. E. S.

    2016-04-01

    Usability usually defined as a point of human acceptance to a product or a system based on understands and right reaction to an interface. The performance of web application has been influence by the quality of the interface of that web to supporting information transfer process. Preferably, before the applications of expert systems were installed in the operational environment, these applications must be evaluated first by usability testing. This research aimed to measure the usability of the expert system application using tasks as interaction media. This study uses an expert system application to diagnose skin disease in human using questionnaire method which utilize the tasks as interaction media in measuring the usability. Certain tasks were executed by the participants in observing usability value of the application. The usability aspects observed were learnability, efficiency, memorability, errors, and satisfaction. Each questionnaire question represent aspects of usability. The results present the usability value for each aspect and the total average merit for all the five-usability aspect was 4.28, this indicated that the tested expert system application is in the range excellent for the usability level, so the application can be implemented as the operated system by user. The main contribution of the study is the research became the first step in using task model in the usability evaluation for the expert system application software.

  10. Analyzing patterns in experts' approaches to solving experimental problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Čančula, Maja Poklinek; Planinšič, Gorazd; Etkina, Eugenia

    2015-04-01

    We report detailed observations of three pairs of expert scientists and a pair of advanced undergraduate students solving an experimental optics problem. Using a new method ("transition graphs") of visualizing sequences of logical steps, we were able to compare the groups and identify patterns that could not be found using previously existing methods. While the problem solving of undergraduates significantly differed from that of experts at the beginning of the process, it gradually became more similar to the expert problem solving. We mapped problem solving steps and their sequence to the elements of an approach to teaching and learning physics called Investigative Science Learning Environment (ISLE), and we speculate that the ISLE educational framework closely represents the actual work of physicists.

  11. A framework for building real-time expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S. Daniel

    1991-01-01

    The Space Station Freedom is an example of complex systems that require both traditional and artificial intelligence (AI) real-time methodologies. It was mandated that Ada should be used for all new software development projects. The station also requires distributed processing. Catastrophic failures on the station can cause the transmission system to malfunction for a long period of time, during which ground-based expert systems cannot provide any assistance to the crisis situation on the station. This is even more critical for other NASA projects that would have longer transmission delays (e.g., the lunar base, Mars missions, etc.). To address these issues, a distributed agent architecture (DAA) is proposed that can support a variety of paradigms based on both traditional real-time computing and AI. The proposed testbed for DAA is an autonomous power expert (APEX) which is a real-time monitoring and diagnosis expert system for the electrical power distribution system of the space station.

  12. Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oppenheimer, Michael; Little, Christopher M.; Cooke, Roger M.

    2016-05-01

    Expert judgement is an unavoidable element of the process-based numerical models used for climate change projections, and the statistical approaches used to characterize uncertainty across model ensembles. Here, we highlight the need for formalized approaches to unifying numerical modelling with expert judgement in order to facilitate characterization of uncertainty in a reproducible, consistent and transparent fashion. As an example, we use probabilistic inversion, a well-established technique used in many other applications outside of climate change, to fuse two recent analyses of twenty-first century Antarctic ice loss. Probabilistic inversion is but one of many possible approaches to formalizing the role of expert judgement, and the Antarctic ice sheet is only one possible climate-related application. We recommend indicators or signposts that characterize successful science-based uncertainty quantification.

  13. Expert Meeting Report: Foundations Research Results

    SciTech Connect

    Ojczyk, C.; Huelman, P.; Carmody, J.

    2013-05-01

    In the Expert Meeting Plan, the NorthernSTAR Team proposed to host two Expert Meetings in calendar year 2011. Invitees to the meetings would include experts in the current field of study, other BA team members, and representatives from DOE and NREL. They will invite leading industry experts to present at these meetings. The Expert Meetings will focus on key systems areas that will be required to meet the Building America performance goals and shall be sufficiently narrow in scope that specific conclusions, action items, and delegation of future tasks can be identified and completed. The two expert meeting topics are 'Foundations' and 'Window Retrofit.' The first session is designed as a webinar only and the second will be a live meeting.

  14. Assessing the congruence between physician behavior and expert opinion in smoking cessation counseling.

    PubMed

    Mullen, P D; Ito, J R; Carbonari, J P; DiClemente, C C

    1991-01-01

    This study examines the degree of transfer of smoking cessation innovation from research to health care settings by comparing frequency-of-practice ratings by a national sample of family practice physicians (n = 903, response rate = 70%) and importance ratings by smoking cessation and prevention experts (n = 58, response rate = 84%) for 14 counseling techniques. The physician survey elicited a profile that combines traditional and behavioral techniques--discussing smoking with patients, encouraging goal setting, suggesting specific steps for quitting, and presenting pamphlets. They refer to others infrequently and rarely report planning for follow-up about smoking. The experts rated these selected techniques as moderately to highly important. They favored a behavioral approach coupled with active follow-up. The major differences between physician and expert rankings were that the experts placed higher priority on planned follow-up and a lower priority on pamphlets. The uneven quality of counseling reported by physicians suggests that weighting their responses according to expert opinion would provide a more sensitive profile. Scaled weighting produced scores that may help researchers define a composite quality-quantity measure of activity. PMID:1776538

  15. [The notion and classification of expert errors].

    PubMed

    Klevno, V A

    2012-01-01

    The author presents the analysis of the legal and forensic medical literature concerning currently accepted concepts and classification of expert malpractice. He proposes a new easy-to-remember definition of the expert error and considers the classification of such mistakes. The analysis of the cases of erroneous application of the medical criteria for estimation of the harm to health made it possible to reveal and systematize the causes accounting for the cases of expert malpractice committed by forensic medical experts and health providers when determining the degree of harm to human health. PMID:22686055

  16. 20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Medical and Vocational Expert System. 405.10... Vocational Expert System. (a) General. The Medical and Vocational Expert System is comprised of the Medical... Vocational Expert System. (3) Experts who provide evidence at your request. Experts whom you ask to...

  17. Expert Systems: An Overview for Teacher-Librarians.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Orwig, Gary; Barron, Ann

    1992-01-01

    Provides an overview of expert systems for teacher librarians. Highlights include artificial intelligence and expert systems; the development of the MYCIN medical expert system; rule-based expert systems; the use of expert system shells to develop a specific system; and how to select an appropriate application for an expert system. (11 references)…

  18. A method for knowledge acquisition in diagnostic expert system.

    PubMed

    Li, Weishi; Li, Aiping; Li, Shudong

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge acquisition plays very important role in the diagnostic expert system. It usually takes a long period to acquire disease knowledge using the traditional methods. To solve this problem, this paper describes relations between rough set theory and rule-based description of diseases, which corresponds to the process of knowledge acquisition of diagnostic expert system. Then the exclusive rules, inclusive rules and disease images of disease are built based on the PDES diagnosis model, and the definition of probability rule is put forward. At last, the paper presents the rule-based automated induction reasoning method, including exhaustive search, post-processing procedure, estimation for statistic test and the bootstrap and resampling methods. We also introduce automated induction of the rule-based description, which is used in our diseases diagnostic expert system. The experimental results not only show that rough set theory gives a very suitable framework to represent processes of uncertain knowledge extraction, but also that this method induces diagnostic rules correctly. This method can act as the assistant tool for development of diagnosis expert system, and has an extensive application in intelligent information systems.

  19. Medical expert systems developed in j.MD, a Java based expert system shell: application in clinical laboratories.

    PubMed

    Van Hoof, Viviane; Wormek, Arno; Schleutermann, Sylvia; Schumacher, Theo; Lothaire, Olivier; Trendelenburg, Christian

    2004-01-01

    Growing complexity of diagnostic tests, combined with increased workload, stringent laboratory accreditation demands, continuous shortening of turn-around-time and budget restrictions have forced laboratories to automate most of their iterative tasks. Introduction of artificial intelligence by means of expert systems has gained an important place in this automation process. Different parts of clinical laboratory activity can benefit from their implementation and the present project deals with one aspect, namely the clinical interpretation of diagnostic tests. This paper describes how j.MD, a new Java based expert system shell, was used to reprogram the expert system for interpretation of amylase isoenzyme patterns that has been in use for many years in our laboratory, and that was originally programmed in Pro.MD, a Prolog based expert system shell. One of the most important advantages of the j.MD system is its bidirectional link with the laboratory information system. This project shows how expert systems for the interpretation of complex diagnostic tests that demand specific expertise can become an integrated part of the automated clinical chemistry lab.

  20. Scientists in the courtroom: basic pointers for the expert scientific witness.

    PubMed Central

    Eaton, D L; Kalman, D

    1994-01-01

    The need for expert and unbiased participation in legal proceedings by physicians, industrial hygienists, toxicologists, environmental scientists, regulators, and similar professionals is hampered by lack of familiarity with the requirements of expert testimony and lack of opportunities for professional training in this activity. Drawing on material developed in a continuing education course offered by the University of Washington, we describe the role and process of being an expert witness and provide basic information regarding good professional practices pertaining to the testifying expert role. PMID:7895706

  1. A web-based delphi study for eliciting helpful criteria in the positive diagnosis of hemophagocytic syndrome in adult patients.

    PubMed

    Hejblum, Gilles; Lambotte, Olivier; Galicier, Lionel; Coppo, Paul; Marzac, Christophe; Aumont, Cédric; Fardet, Laurence

    2014-01-01

    The diagnosis of the reactive form of hemophagocytic syndrome in adults remains particularly difficult since none of the clinical or laboratory manifestations are specific. We undertook a study in order to elicit which features constitute helpful criteria for a positive diagnosis. In this Delphi study, the features investigated in the questionnaire and the experts invited to participate in the survey were issued from a bibliographic search. The questionnaire was iteratively proposed to experts via a web-based application with a feedback of the results observed at the preceding Delphi round. Experts were asked to label each investigated criterion in one of the following categories: absolutely required, important, of minor interest, or not assessable in the routine practice environment. A positive consensus was a priori defined as at least 75% answers observed in the categories absolutely required and important. The questionnaire investigated 26 criteria and 24 experts originating from 13 countries participated in the second and final Delphi round. A positive consensus was reached for the nine following criteria: unilineage cytopenia, bicytopenia, pancytopenia, presence of hemophagocytosis pictures on a bone marrow aspirate or on a tissue biopsy, high ferritin level, fever, organomegaly, presence of a predisposing underlying disease, and high level of lactate dehydrogenase. A negative consensus was reached for 13 criteria, and an absence of consensus was observed for 4 criteria. The study constitutes the first initiative to date for defining international guidelines devoted to the positive diagnosis of the reactive form of hemophagocytic syndrome.

  2. The new vaccines: building viruses that elicit antitumor immunity

    PubMed Central

    Restifo, Nicholas P

    2007-01-01

    Whereas cancer cells are poor immunogens, some viruses are capable of eliciting powerful and lifelong immunity. Recombinant viruses and plasmid DNA encoding tumor-associated antigens can elicit powerful and specific immune responses that can be enhanced by the use of cytokines and costimulatory molecules. These immune responses have destroyed growing tumor cells in experimental animal models. For the first time, immunotherapeutic strategies that employ recombinant viruses are being tested in clinical trials with cancer patients. PMID:8902391

  3. Radiologists: The Unsuspecting Subject Matter Experts.

    PubMed

    McGann, Camille; Miaullis, Aaron; Page, Neil

    2015-07-01

    The social and political climates are changing rapidly in the United States and the world at large. The threat of a chemical, biologic, radiologic, and/or nuclear event is a rising concern to many. The current Ebola crisis has shed light on health care providers' preparedness for such an event. Radiologists, including radiation oncologists, nuclear medicine specialists, and all radiology subspecialists are considered "subject matter experts" in this area and are likely to be called upon in response to a radiation incident. Although others, such as radiation safety officers, provide important expertise, the clinical leadership will be the responsibility of physicians and other health care providers. However, many radiologists are unaware that they are considered subject matter experts who may be called on to assist, should their local hospital's emergency department need to take care of casualties from a radiation incident. A mass-casualty situation with hundreds of patients would require the immediate assistance of all available medical providers. Radiologists are primed and positioned to take the lead in ensuring preparedness of their local hospital and community, through emergency planning for a radiologic incident, given their combined medical and radiation physics knowledge. Therefore, increasing the skills of radiologists first is the more prudent approach in such planning. This preparation can be done through understanding of the critical components of such scenarios: the threat, types of radiation incidents, contamination, detection, decontamination, and acute radiation syndrome and its treatment. Once the necessary knowledge supplementation has been completed, radiologists can participate in educating their fellow medical colleagues and health care staff, and assist in the radiation-related aspects of an "all hazards" emergency department response, decreasing "radiophobia" in the process. PMID:25890886

  4. Radiologists: The Unsuspecting Subject Matter Experts.

    PubMed

    McGann, Camille; Miaullis, Aaron; Page, Neil

    2015-07-01

    The social and political climates are changing rapidly in the United States and the world at large. The threat of a chemical, biologic, radiologic, and/or nuclear event is a rising concern to many. The current Ebola crisis has shed light on health care providers' preparedness for such an event. Radiologists, including radiation oncologists, nuclear medicine specialists, and all radiology subspecialists are considered "subject matter experts" in this area and are likely to be called upon in response to a radiation incident. Although others, such as radiation safety officers, provide important expertise, the clinical leadership will be the responsibility of physicians and other health care providers. However, many radiologists are unaware that they are considered subject matter experts who may be called on to assist, should their local hospital's emergency department need to take care of casualties from a radiation incident. A mass-casualty situation with hundreds of patients would require the immediate assistance of all available medical providers. Radiologists are primed and positioned to take the lead in ensuring preparedness of their local hospital and community, through emergency planning for a radiologic incident, given their combined medical and radiation physics knowledge. Therefore, increasing the skills of radiologists first is the more prudent approach in such planning. This preparation can be done through understanding of the critical components of such scenarios: the threat, types of radiation incidents, contamination, detection, decontamination, and acute radiation syndrome and its treatment. Once the necessary knowledge supplementation has been completed, radiologists can participate in educating their fellow medical colleagues and health care staff, and assist in the radiation-related aspects of an "all hazards" emergency department response, decreasing "radiophobia" in the process.

  5. Application of expert system technology to nondestructive waste assay - initial prototype model

    SciTech Connect

    Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

    1997-11-01

    Expert system technology has been identified as a technique useful for filling certain types of technology/capability gaps in existing waste nondestructive assay (NDA) applications. In particular, expert system techniques are being investigated with the intent of providing on-line evaluation of acquired data and/or directed acquisition of data in a manner that mimics the logic and decision making process a waste NDA expert would employ. The space from which information and data sources utilized in this process is much expanded with respect to the algorithmic approach typically utilized in waste NDA. Expert system technology provides a mechanism to manage and reason with this expanded information/data set. The material presented in this paper concerns initial studies and a resultant prototype expert system that incorporates pertinent information, and evaluation logic and decision processes, for the purpose of validating acquired waste NDA measurement assays. 6 refs., 6 figs.

  6. [Causalgia in neurologic expert assessment].

    PubMed

    Suchenwirth, R M

    1990-08-01

    Rendering an expert opinion on causalgia, after having clear determined it as the disease, poses many problems to the examiner. One ought to make this diagnosis with its serious consequences only under the following conditions: --when it is a case of a mostly partial trauma of a nerve with considerable intermingling of sympathetic fibres; --when the pains have a burning and primarily superficial character; --when the pain appear soon (hours, mostly days or weeks, more rarely months afterward) after the trauma; --when the pains are accompanied by considerable vasovegetative symptoms (cold sweats, cyanosis, hyperhidrosis and others). Secondary algodystrophic changes (muscle, joints, bones, and skin) are to be considered. In quantitatively judging the effects, an over-evaluation, as well as an underevaluation, is to be avoided by all means. Therapeutic effects and spontaneous remission after six to twelve months are to be considered. An exemplary case, in which a deterioriation of the capacity to work from 20 to 100% (!) was assumed, showed the need for taking the personality structure of patient into consideration. PMID:2399634

  7. Expert system for automatically correcting OCR output

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taghva, Kazem; Borsack, Julie; Condit, Allen

    1994-03-01

    This paper describes a new expert system for automatically correcting errors made by optical character recognition (OCR) devices. The system, which we call the post-processing system, is designed to improve the quality of text produced by an OCR device in preparation for subsequent retrieval from an information system. The system is composed of numerous parts: an information retrieval system, an English dictionary, a domain-specific dictionary, and a collection of algorithms and heuristics designed to correct as many OCR errors as possible. For the remaining errors that cannot be corrected, the system passes them on to a user-level editing program. This post-processing system can be viewed as part of a larger system that would streamline the steps of taking a document from its hard copy form to its usable electronic form, or it can be considered a stand alone system for OCR error correction. An earlier version of this system has been used to process approximately 10,000 pages of OCR generated text. Among the OCR errors discovered by this version, about 87% were corrected. We implement numerous new parts of the system, test this new version, and present the results.

  8. Experts in Fast-Ball Sports Reduce Anticipation Timing Cost by Developing Inhibitory Control

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nakamoto, Hiroki; Mori, Shiro

    2012-01-01

    The present study was conducted to examine the relationship between expertise in movement correction and rate of movement reprogramming within limited time periods, and to clarify the specific cognitive processes regarding superior reprogramming ability in experts. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded in baseball experts (n = 7) and…

  9. Mechanisms and Neural Basis of Object and Pattern Recognition: A Study with Chess Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bilalic, Merim; Langner, Robert; Erb, Michael; Grodd, Wolfgang

    2010-01-01

    Comparing experts with novices offers unique insights into the functioning of cognition, based on the maximization of individual differences. Here we used this expertise approach to disentangle the mechanisms and neural basis behind two processes that contribute to everyday expertise: object and pattern recognition. We compared chess experts and…

  10. Agreement of experts and non-experts in a desktop exercise evaluating exposure to asthmagens in the cotton and textile, and other industries.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Christine; Money, Annemarie; Agius, Raymond; de Vocht, Frank

    2015-03-01

    In the absence of personal exposure measurements, expert assessment, generally on a case-by-case basis, is often used to estimate exposures. However, the decision processes of individual experts when making assessments are unknown, making it difficult to assess the quality of these assessments or to compare different assessments to each other. We conducted a study in primarily the textile and cotton industries, but also in baking, metal work, and agriculture industries in which we assessed agreement between experts assessing intensity and probability of exposure in the absence of exposure measurements to compare how well their performance compares to agreement of non-desktop-based exercises reported in literature. In addition, agreement was compared with that of non-experts undertaking the same exercise, and results were further stratified to assess the impact of factors expected of affected assessments. Intraclass correlation coefficients of absolute agreement (ICC1) and consistency (ICC3) between raters were calculated. Sensitivity and specificity were estimated using a probabilistic simulation methodology developed previously. Fourteen occupational hygienists and exposure assessors with complete data for all 48 job descriptions and 8 non-experts participated. Although confidence intervals about correlation-coefficient differences are not reported, the individual limits were found to be so broad as to suggest that no statistically significant comparisons can be made. Nevertheless, preliminary observations are presented here as suggested by the computed means. Absolute agreement between expert raters was fair-good, but was somewhat better for intensity (ICC1 = 0.61) than for probability (ICC1 = 0.44) of exposure and was better for experts than non-experts. Estimated sensitivity was 0.95 and specificity 0.82 for intensity, and 0.91 and 0.78 for probability of exposure, respectively. Stratification for factors hypothesized to affect agreement did not show

  11. The Shrinkage Model And Expert System Of Plastic Lens Formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Rong-Seng

    1988-06-01

    Shrinkage causes both the appearance & dimension defects of the injected plastic lens. We have built up a model of state equations with the help of finite element analysis program to estimate the volume change (shrinkage and swelling) under the combinations of injection variables such as pressure and temperature etc., then the personal computer expert system has been build up to make that knowledge conveniently available to the user in the model design, process planning, process operation and some other work. The domain knowledge is represented by a R-graph (Relationship-graph) model which states the relationships of variables & equations. This model could be compare with other models in the expert system. If the user has better model to solve the shrinkage problem, the program will evaluate it automatically and a learning file will be trigger by the expert system to teach the user to update their knowledge base and modify the old model by this better model. The Rubin's model and Gilmore's model have been input to the expert system. The conflict has been solved both from the user and the deeper knowledge base. A cube prism and the convex lens examples have been shown in this paper. This program is written by MULISP language in IBM PC-AT. The natural language provides English Explaination of know why and know how and the automatic English translation for the equation rules and the production rules.

  12. A structured elicitation method to identify key direct risk factors for the management of natural resources.

    PubMed

    Smith, Michael; Wallace, Ken; Lewis, Loretta; Wagner, Christian

    2015-11-01

    The high level of uncertainty inherent in natural resource management requires planners to apply comprehensive risk analyses, often in situations where there are few resources. In this paper, we demonstrate a broadly applicable, novel and structured elicitation approach to identify important direct risk factors. This new approach combines expert calibration and fuzzy based mathematics to capture and aggregate subjective expert estimates of the likelihood that a set of direct risk factors will cause management failure. A specific case study is used to demonstrate the approach; however, the described methods are widely applicable in risk analysis. For the case study, the management target was to retain all species that characterise a set of natural biological elements. The analysis was bounded by the spatial distribution of the biological elements under consideration and a 20-year time frame. Fourteen biological elements were expected to be at risk. Eleven important direct risk factors were identified that related to surrounding land use practices, climate change, problem species (e.g., feral predators), fire and hydrological change. In terms of their overall influence, the two most important risk factors were salinisation and a lack of water which together pose a considerable threat to the survival of nine biological elements. The described approach successfully overcame two concerns arising from previous risk analysis work: (1) the lack of an intuitive, yet comprehensive scoring method enabling the detection and clarification of expert agreement and associated levels of uncertainty; and (2) the ease with which results can be interpreted and communicated while preserving a rich level of detail essential for informed decision making.

  13. A structured elicitation method to identify key direct risk factors for the management of natural resources.

    PubMed

    Smith, Michael; Wallace, Ken; Lewis, Loretta; Wagner, Christian

    2015-11-01

    The high level of uncertainty inherent in natural resource management requires planners to apply comprehensive risk analyses, often in situations where there are few resources. In this paper, we demonstrate a broadly applicable, novel and structured elicitation approach to identify important direct risk factors. This new approach combines expert calibration and fuzzy based mathematics to capture and aggregate subjective expert estimates of the likelihood that a set of direct risk factors will cause management failure. A specific case study is used to demonstrate the approach; however, the described methods are widely applicable in risk analysis. For the case study, the management target was to retain all species that characterise a set of natural biological elements. The analysis was bounded by the spatial distribution of the biological elements under consideration and a 20-year time frame. Fourteen biological elements were expected to be at risk. Eleven important direct risk factors were identified that related to surrounding land use practices, climate change, problem species (e.g., feral predators), fire and hydrological change. In terms of their overall influence, the two most important risk factors were salinisation and a lack of water which together pose a considerable threat to the survival of nine biological elements. The described approach successfully overcame two concerns arising from previous risk analysis work: (1) the lack of an intuitive, yet comprehensive scoring method enabling the detection and clarification of expert agreement and associated levels of uncertainty; and (2) the ease with which results can be interpreted and communicated while preserving a rich level of detail essential for informed decision making. PMID:27441228

  14. Family Stories: Eliciting Tolerance and Understanding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dukes, Melanie Anne Dillett

    2009-01-01

    The past and present provide an important reference to understanding the circumstances and cultural differences that assist in the development of our methods of interaction. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to provide a process of personal self-reflection of experiences by which administrators, school officials, staff, and faculty can…

  15. 12 CFR 1081.210 - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... material outside the scope of fair rebuttal is presented, a party may file a motion not later than five... witness has testified or sought to testify as an expert at trial or hearing, or by deposition within the... expert whose opinions may be presented at trial. Unless otherwise ordered by the hearing officer,...

  16. 32 CFR 516.52 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... States Has An Interest § 516.52 Expert witnesses. Requests for present or former DA personnel as expert or opinion witnesses from DOJ or other attorneys representing the United States will be referred to Litigation Division unless the request involves a matter that has been delegated by Litigation Division to...

  17. 32 CFR 516.52 - Expert witnesses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... States Has An Interest § 516.52 Expert witnesses. Requests for present or former DA personnel as expert or opinion witnesses from DOJ or other attorneys representing the United States will be referred to Litigation Division unless the request involves a matter that has been delegated by Litigation Division to...

  18. The Beliefs of Two Expert EFL Learners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mercer, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    Much of the research into "expert" language learners has focused largely on their learning strategies or styles. Less attention has been paid to other expert learner characteristics, such as learner beliefs. However, the importance of learners' beliefs in guiding their behaviours and how they interpret their experiences is widely recognised. This…

  19. Expert System Detects Power-Distribution Faults

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walters, Jerry L.; Quinn, Todd M.

    1994-01-01

    Autonomous Power Expert (APEX) computer program is prototype expert-system program detecting faults in electrical-power-distribution system. Assists human operators in diagnosing faults and deciding what adjustments or repairs needed for immediate recovery from faults or for maintenance to correct initially nonthreatening conditions that could develop into faults. Written in Lisp.

  20. Farm Parents' Attitudes Towards Farm Safety Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neufeld, Steven J.; Cinnamon, Jennifer L.

    2004-01-01

    Using both qualitative and quantitative data, this article analyzes farm parent's attitudes towards the trustworthiness, usefulness, and use of advice from farm safety experts. The article evaluates four different perspectives on trust in expert: the Validity of Knowledge perspective, the Salient Values Similarity perspective, the Diffusion of…

  1. Expert system for analyzing eddy current measurements

    DOEpatents

    Levy, Arthur J.; Oppenlander, Jane E.; Brudnoy, David M.; Englund, James M.; Loomis, Kent C.

    1994-01-01

    A method and apparatus (called DODGER) analyzes eddy current data for heat exchanger tubes or any other metallic object. DODGER uses an expert system to analyze eddy current data by reasoning with uncertainty and pattern recognition. The expert system permits DODGER to analyze eddy current data intelligently, and obviate operator uncertainty by analyzing the data in a uniform and consistent manner.

  2. Graphic Novels in Libraries: An Expert's Opinion

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Katy

    2004-01-01

    Barbara Gordon a librarian and computer expert from Gotham city is a genius level intellect and photographic memory expert at research and analysis. According to her, graphic novels and comics are wildly appealing to readers of all ages and intensely popular with adolescents.

  3. An expert system for restructurable control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan

    1988-01-01

    Work in progress on an expert system which restructures and tunes control systems on-line is presented. The expert system coordinates the different methods for redesigning and implementing the control strategies due to system changes. The research is directed toward aircraft and jet engine applications. The implementation is written in LISP and is currently running on a special purpose LISP machine.

  4. Expert witness testimony: rules of engagement.

    PubMed

    Satiani, Bhagwan

    2006-01-01

    Overlooked in most legislative remedies to address the medical malpractice (MMP) crisis is stringent prohibition against the use of "junk science'' in the courtroom and defining the qualifications of an expert witness. Expert witnesses should be required to: (1) to disclose information materially related to the reliability of expert testimony. (2) Filing of a "Daubert brief'': a summary of the plaintiff's expert's opinion along with a resume outlining his/her knowledge, skill, experience, training and education, reputation in the field relevant to the litigation, and complete details of the methodology employed by the expert. (3) An oath or declaration that acknowledges the duty to disclose to the court all information known to the person to be material to the reliability of the expert witness. Rules of evidence: The "Frye test'' or the "general acceptance rule'' has been used by judges to exclude expert testimony unless it is "sufficiently established to have gained general acceptance in the particular field in which it belongs.'' Stricter standards need to be legislated at the state level. The mandatory use of scientific panels by judges in all MMP cases is needed. Legislative relief has been sought by the medical community to address the serious disconnect between negligence and MMP litigation. The use of junk science in the courtroom remains largely unaddressed in the judicial system. Medical societies and legislatures must act to define an expert witness and restrain plaintiff's attorneys from using junk science to influence juries.

  5. Expert Systems Technology for Training Applications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liebowitz, Jay

    1989-01-01

    Description of the use of expert systems for training applications presents three case studies of expert systems that are currently in use: (1) CESA, used for government contracting; (2) TOPSCO, for training in telecommunications; and (3) EVIDENT, for law students learning admissibility of evidence. (13 references) (LRW)

  6. On Getting Expertise into an Expert System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tiemann, Philip W.; Markle, Susan M.

    1984-01-01

    Discusses the relationship between the problems involved in the creation of expert systems by knowledge engineers, i.e., experts at translating human abilities and knowledge into computer programs, and the major issues dealt with in the planning/analysis phases of instructional development. (MBR)

  7. Multiple strategies of reasoning for expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Yao Yuchuan; Kulikowski, C.A.

    1983-01-01

    In expert systems the heuristics used for combining the weight of evidence can be based on probabilistic, fuzzy set, or subjective confidence factors. Although the underlying assumptions for each of the methods differ, it can be shown that there are correspondences between them and that it is possible to develop a model of expert reasoning for medical consultation using any one of the methods. The authors have developed a system for representing expert knowledge, called ESMES, which is an outgrowth of the expert scheme developed earlier at Rutgers. ESMES allows the use of alternative strategies in the solution of a consultation problem. The authors report on the performance of ESMES for a prototype glaucoma consultation model, using reasoning mechanisms similar to those of the expert, MYCIN, Internist I, and Prospector systems. 9 references.

  8. CLIPS: An expert system building tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Riley, Gary

    1991-01-01

    The C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) is an expert system building tool, which provides a complete environment for the development and delivery of rule and/or object based expert systems. CLIPS was specifically designed to provide a low cost option for developing and deploying expert system applications across a wide range of hardware platforms. The commercial potential of CLIPS is vast. Currently, CLIPS is being used by over 3,300 individuals throughout the public and private sector. Because the CLIPS source code is readily available, numerous groups have used CLIPS as a basis for their own expert system tools. To date, three commercially available tools have been derived from CLIPS. In general, the development of CLIPS has helped to improve the ability to deliver expert system technology throughout the public and private sectors for a wide range of applications and diverse computing environments.

  9. Expert-recommended warnings for medical marijuana.

    PubMed

    Malouff, John M; Rooke, Sally E

    2013-01-01

    Medical marijuana is legal in some countries, including in many US states. At present, there are no government-mandated warnings on packages of marijuana, even though the substance has dangers similar to those of alcohol, tobacco, and various prescribed drugs. This article reports the results of an effort to collect marijuana warnings recommended by scientific experts on marijuana. The recommended warnings, the first ever from marijuana experts, come from 13 experts. The expert-recommended warnings pertain to risks relating to (1) safety, (2) physical health, (3) fetal harm, (4) mental health, (5) withdrawal and dependence, and (6) adolescent development. The results provide initial expert recommendations for warnings to be required on packages of medical marijuana.

  10. Hilar Cholangiocarcinoma: expert consensus statement

    PubMed Central

    Mansour, John C; Aloia, Thomas A; Crane, Christopher H; Heimbach, Julie K; Nagino, Masato; Vauthey, Jean-Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    An American Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association (AHPBA)-sponsored consensus meeting of expert panellists met on 15 January 2014 to review current evidence on the management of hilar cholangiocarcinoma in order to establish practice guidelines and to agree consensus statements. It was established that the treatment of patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma requires a coordinated, multidisciplinary approach to optimize the chances for both durable survival and effective palliation. An adequate diagnostic and staging work-up includes high-quality cross-sectional imaging; however, pathologic confirmation is not required prior to resection or initiation of a liver transplant trimodal treatment protocol. The ideal treatment for suitable patients with resectable hilar malignancy is resection of the intra- and extrahepatic bile ducts, as well as resection of the involved ipsilateral liver. Preoperative biliary drainage is best achieved with percutaneous transhepatic approaches and may be indicated for patients with cholangitis, malnutrition or hepatic insufficiency. Portal vein embolization is a safe and effective strategy for increasing the future liver remnant (FLR) and is particularly useful for patients with an FLR of <30%. Selected patients with unresectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma should be evaluated for a standard trimodal protocol incorporating external beam and endoluminal radiation therapy, systemic chemotherapy and liver transplantation. Post-resection chemoradiation should be offered to patients who show high-risk features on surgical pathology. Chemoradiation is also recommended for patients with locally advanced, unresectable hilar cancers. For patients with locally recurrent or metastatic hilar cholangiocarcinoma, first-line chemotherapy with gemcitabine and cisplatin is recommended based on multiple Phase II trials and a large randomized controlled trial including a heterogeneous population of patients with biliary cancers. PMID:26172136

  11. Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: expert consensus statement

    PubMed Central

    Weber, Sharon M; Ribero, Dario; O=Reilly, Eileen M; Kokudo, Norihiro; Miyazaki, Masaru; Pawlik, Timothy M

    2015-01-01

    An American Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association (AHPBA)-sponsored consensus meeting of expert panellists met on 15 January 2014 to review current evidence on the management of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) in order to establish practice guidelines and to agree on consensus statements. The treatment of ICC requires a coordinated, multidisciplinary approach to optimize survival. Biopsy is not necessary if the surgeon suspects ICC and is planning curative resection, although biopsy should be obtained before systemic or locoregional therapies are initiated. Assessment of resectability is best accomplished using cross-sectional imaging [computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)], but the role of positron emission tomography (PET) is unclear. Resectability in ICC is defined by the ability to completely remove the disease while leaving an adequate liver remnant. Extrahepatic disease, multiple bilobar or multicentric tumours, and lymph node metastases beyond the primary echelon are contraindications to resection. Regional lymphadenectomy should be considered a standard part of surgical therapy. In patients with high-risk features, the routine use of diagnostic laparoscopy is recommended. The preoperative diagnosis of combined hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC–CC) by imaging studies is extremely difficult. Surgical resection remains the mainstay of treatment, but survival is worse than in HCC alone. There are no adequately powered, randomized Phase III trials that can provide definitive recommendations for adjuvant therapy for ICC. Patients with high-risk features (lymphovascular invasion, multicentricity or satellitosis, large tumours) should be encouraged to enrol in clinical trials and to consider adjuvant therapy. Cisplatin plus gemcitabine represents the standard-of-care, front-line systemic therapy for metastatic ICC. Genomic analyses of biliary cancers support the development of targeted therapeutic interventions

  12. The expert explorer: a tool for hospital data visualization and adverse drug event rules validation.

    PubMed

    Băceanu, Adrian; Atasiei, Ionuţ; Chazard, Emmanuel; Leroy, Nicolas

    2009-01-01

    An important part of adverse drug events (ADEs) detection is the validation of the clinical cases and the assessment of the decision rules to detect ADEs. For that purpose, a software called "Expert Explorer" has been designed by Ideea Advertising. Anonymized datasets have been extracted from hospitals into a common repository. The tool has 3 main features. (1) It can display hospital stays in a visual and comprehensive way (diagnoses, drugs, lab results, etc.) using tables and pretty charts. (2) It allows designing and executing dashboards in order to generate knowledge about ADEs. (3) It finally allows uploading decision rules obtained from data mining. Experts can then review the rules, the hospital stays that match the rules, and finally give their advice thanks to specialized forms. Then the rules can be validated, invalidated, or improved (knowledge elicitation phase).

  13. Multi-expert tracking algorithm based on improved compressive tracker

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Yachun; Zhang, Hong; Yuan, Ding

    2015-12-01

    Object tracking is a challenging task in computer vision. Most state-of-the-art methods maintain an object model and update the object model by using new examples obtained incoming frames in order to deal with the variation in the appearance. It will inevitably introduce the model drift problem into the object model updating frame-by-frame without any censorship mechanism. In this paper, we adopt a multi-expert tracking framework, which is able to correct the effect of bad updates after they happened such as the bad updates caused by the severe occlusion. Hence, the proposed framework exactly has the ability which a robust tracking method should process. The expert ensemble is constructed of a base tracker and its formal snapshot. The tracking result is produced by the current tracker that is selected by means of a simple loss function. We adopt an improved compressive tracker as the base tracker in our work and modify it to fit the multi-expert framework. The proposed multi-expert tracking algorithm significantly improves the robustness of the base tracker, especially in the scenes with frequent occlusions and illumination variations. Experiments on challenging video sequences with comparisons to several state-of-the-art trackers demonstrate the effectiveness of our method and our tracking algorithm can run at real-time.

  14. Communications and tracking expert systems study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leibfried, T. F.; Feagin, Terry; Overland, David

    1987-01-01

    The original objectives of the study consisted of five broad areas of investigation: criteria and issues for explanation of communication and tracking system anomaly detection, isolation, and recovery; data storage simplification issues for fault detection expert systems; data selection procedures for decision tree pruning and optimization to enhance the abstraction of pertinent information for clear explanation; criteria for establishing levels of explanation suited to needs; and analysis of expert system interaction and modularization. Progress was made in all areas, but to a lesser extent in the criteria for establishing levels of explanation suited to needs. Among the types of expert systems studied were those related to anomaly or fault detection, isolation, and recovery.

  15. An overview of expert systems. [artificial intelligence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gevarter, W. B.

    1982-01-01

    An expert system is defined and its basic structure is discussed. The knowledge base, the inference engine, and uses of expert systems are discussed. Architecture is considered, including choice of solution direction, reasoning in the presence of uncertainty, searching small and large search spaces, handling large search spaces by transforming them and by developing alternative or additional spaces, and dealing with time. Existing expert systems are reviewed. Tools for building such systems, construction, and knowledge acquisition and learning are discussed. Centers of research and funding sources are listed. The state-of-the-art, current problems, required research, and future trends are summarized.

  16. Gender differences in preschoolers' help-eliciting communication.

    PubMed

    Thompson, R B

    1999-09-01

    Gender differences in help-eliciting communication and the relationship of such utterances with ability were explored. A sample of 71 preschoolers (38 boys, 33 girls; mean age 4 years 3 months) were videotaped as they solved a difficult puzzle. Spontaneous talk was analyzed for orientation (to whom or to what an utterance referred) and for the frequency of utterances coded as help eliciting. Significant main effects for gender were observed, with more frequent help-eliciting utterances (HEUs) made by the girls than by the boys, particularly HEUs about themselves (self-disclosing). Although the girls' HEUs were not predictive of ability on the puzzle, the boys' were. No gender differences in puzzle-solving ability were observed. Findings are discussed with regard to problem solving and social/linguistic development. PMID:10515069

  17. Electrodermal activity analysis during affective haptic elicitation.

    PubMed

    Greco, Alberto; Valenza, Gaetano; Nardelli, Mimma; Bianchi, Matteo; Lanata, Antonio; Scilingo, Enzo Pasquale

    2015-08-01

    This paper investigates how the autonomic nervous system dynamics, quantified through the analysis of the electrodermal activity (EDA), is modulated according to affective haptic stimuli. Specifically, a haptic display able to convey caress-like stimuli is presented to 32 healthy subjects (16 female). Each stimulus is changed according to six combinations of three velocities and two forces levels of two motors stretching a strip of fabric. Subjects were also asked to score each stimulus in terms of arousal (high/low activation) and valence (pleasant/unpleasant), in agreement with the circumplex model of affect. EDA was processed using a deconvolutive method, separating tonic and phasic components. A statistical analysis was performed in order to identify significant differences in EDA features among force and velocity levels, as well as in their valence and arousal scores. Results show that the simulated caress induced by the haptic display significantly affects the EDA. In detail, the phasic component seems to be inversely related to the valence score. This finding is new and promising, since it can be used, e.g., as an additional cue for haptics design. PMID:26737605

  18. Assessing the Effectiveness of Local Management of Coral Reefs Using Expert Opinion and Spatial Bayesian Modeling.

    PubMed

    Ban, Stephen S; Pressey, Robert L; Graham, Nicholas A J

    2015-01-01

    Multiple stressors are an increasing concern in the management and conservation of ecosystems, and have been identified as a key gap in research. Coral reefs are one example of an ecosystem where management of local stressors may be a way of mitigating or delaying the effects of climate change. Predicting how multiple stressors interact, particularly in a spatially explicit fashion, is a difficult challenge. Here we use a combination of an expert-elicited Bayesian network (BN) and spatial environmental data to examine how hypothetical scenarios of climate change and local management would result in different outcomes for coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Parameterizing our BN using the mean responses from our experts resulted in predictions of limited efficacy of local management in combating the effects of climate change. However, there was considerable variability in expert responses and uncertainty was high. Many reefs within the central GBR appear to be at risk of further decline based on the pessimistic opinions of our expert pool. Further parameterization of the model as more data and knowledge become available could improve predictive power. Our approach serves as a starting point for subsequent work that can fine-tune parameters and explore uncertainties in predictions of responses to management. PMID:26284372

  19. Assessing the Effectiveness of Local Management of Coral Reefs Using Expert Opinion and Spatial Bayesian Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Ban, Stephen S.

    2015-01-01

    Multiple stressors are an increasing concern in the management and conservation of ecosystems, and have been identified as a key gap in research. Coral reefs are one example of an ecosystem where management of local stressors may be a way of mitigating or delaying the effects of climate change. Predicting how multiple stressors interact, particularly in a spatially explicit fashion, is a difficult challenge. Here we use a combination of an expert-elicited Bayesian network (BN) and spatial environmental data to examine how hypothetical scenarios of climate change and local management would result in different outcomes for coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Parameterizing our BN using the mean responses from our experts resulted in predictions of limited efficacy of local management in combating the effects of climate change. However, there was considerable variability in expert responses and uncertainty was high. Many reefs within the central GBR appear to be at risk of further decline based on the pessimistic opinions of our expert pool. Further parameterization of the model as more data and knowledge become available could improve predictive power. Our approach serves as a starting point for subsequent work that can fine-tune parameters and explore uncertainties in predictions of responses to management. PMID:26284372

  20. Assessing the Effectiveness of Local Management of Coral Reefs Using Expert Opinion and Spatial Bayesian Modeling.

    PubMed

    Ban, Stephen S; Pressey, Robert L; Graham, Nicholas A J

    2015-01-01

    Multiple stressors are an increasing concern in the management and conservation of ecosystems, and have been identified as a key gap in research. Coral reefs are one example of an ecosystem where management of local stressors may be a way of mitigating or delaying the effects of climate change. Predicting how multiple stressors interact, particularly in a spatially explicit fashion, is a difficult challenge. Here we use a combination of an expert-elicited Bayesian network (BN) and spatial environmental data to examine how hypothetical scenarios of climate change and local management would result in different outcomes for coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Parameterizing our BN using the mean responses from our experts resulted in predictions of limited efficacy of local management in combating the effects of climate change. However, there was considerable variability in expert responses and uncertainty was high. Many reefs within the central GBR appear to be at risk of further decline based on the pessimistic opinions of our expert pool. Further parameterization of the model as more data and knowledge become available could improve predictive power. Our approach serves as a starting point for subsequent work that can fine-tune parameters and explore uncertainties in predictions of responses to management.