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Sample records for expert elicitation process

  1. Promoting environmental sustainability via an expert elicitation process

    SciTech Connect

    Swor, Tom; Canter, Larry

    2011-09-15

    Environmental sustainability (ES) planning was applied to the 981-mile, commercially navigable Ohio River. Navigation improvement needs were identified within the broad study along with actions to restore aquatic and riparian ecological resources to a higher state of sustainability. The actions were identified via an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) involving aquatic and riparian/terrestrial experts knowledgeable of Ohio River resources. The received information was synthesized into goals for the selected resources (Valued Ecosystem Components - or VECs), actions or measures to attain the goals, and monitoring to evaluate conditions. Finally, 26 types of ES actions were identified and classified into three ES alternatives. These alternatives were then evaluated relative to key decision criteria, and such evaluations, based on pertinent decision criteria, were also conducted for four navigation improvement alternatives. Finally, the best combination of ES and navigation alternatives was identified. The key lessons derived from this use of EEP were that: (1) EEP can support the preliminary identification of ES measures; however, more detailed study of specific designs and cost evaluations will be necessary; (2) the method promotes collaboration between key scientists and policymakers from governmental agencies and private sectors, and such collaboration will ultimately provide the foundation for implementation of sustainability actions; and (3) an effective EEP does not occur by accident, it requires careful planning, implementation, and documentation. - Research Highlights: > Use of an Expert Elicitation Process (EEP) is demonstrated in this study. > EEP was used to identify Environmental Sustainability (ES) needs for the Ohio River. > EEP helped develop consensus among resource experts on ES needs. > EEP promotes collaboration to identify and contribute to common resource goals. > EEP may be used in assessing cumulative effects and formulating restoration plans.

  2. 75 FR 76467 - Draft Concept for Government-Wide “ExpertNet” Platform and Process To Elicit Expert Public...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-08

    ... ADMINISTRATION Draft Concept for Government-Wide ``ExpertNet'' Platform and Process To Elicit Expert Public...) requests input, comment, and ideas from the public on a draft concept for next-generation citizen consultation, namely a government- wide software tool and process to elicit expert public...

  3. Unsaturated Zone Flow Model Expert Elicitation Project

    SciTech Connect

    Coppersmith, K. J.

    1997-05-30

    This report presents results of the Unsaturated Zone Flow Model Expert Elicitation (UZFMEE) project at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. This project was sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and managed by Geomatrix Consultants, Inc. (Geomatrix), for TRW Environmental Safety Systems, Inc. The objective of this project was to identify and assess the uncertainties associated with certain key components of the unsaturated zone flow system at Yucca Mountain. This assessment reviewed the data inputs, modeling approaches, and results of the unsaturated zone flow model (termed the ''UZ site-scale model'') being developed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and the US Geological Survey (USGS). In addition to data input and modeling issues, the assessment focused on percolation flux (volumetric flow rate per unit cross-sectional area) at the potential repository horizon. An understanding of unsaturated zone processes is critical to evaluating the performance of the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. A major goal of the project was to capture the uncertainties involved in assessing the unsaturated flow processes, including uncertainty in both the models used to represent physical controls on unsaturated zone flow and the parameter values used in the models. To ensure that the analysis included a wide range of perspectives, multiple individual judgments were elicited from members of an expert panel. The panel members, who were experts from within and outside the Yucca Mountain project, represented a range of experience and expertise. A deliberate process was followed in facilitating interactions among the experts, in training them to express their uncertainties, and in eliciting their interpretations. The resulting assessments and probability distributions, therefore, provide a reasonable aggregate representation of the knowledge and uncertainties about key issues regarding the unsaturated zone at the Yucca Mountain site.

  4. Learning from Expert Elicitation in Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morgan, M. G.

    2009-12-01

    Since the early 1990's the author has been involved in the design and execution of six detailed expert elicitations that, among other things, have obtained subjective judgments from experts that reflect their best judgment in the form of subjective probability density functions, about the value of key climate variables, climate impacts and a technology for mitigation (Morgan and Keith, 1995; Morgan Pitelka and Shevliakova, 2001; Morgan, Adams and Keith, 2006; Zickfeld et al, 2007; Curtright, Morgan and Keith, 2008; Zickfeld, Morgan Keith and Frame, in review). This paper builds on that experience to draw insights about the design and use of expert elicitation in the assessment and analysis of climate change and its impacts. Several trends in responses will be noted. Methodological pitfalls will be discussed. Comparisons will be drawn with the consensus-based methods employed by IPCC, which appear to have produced tighter uncertainty bounds than individual elicitation. The paper will close with thoughts on the possible use of expert elicitation in future IPCC assessments. Support for this work is from the Climate Decision Making Center through a cooperative agreement between the National Science Foundation (SES-0345798) and Carnegie Mellon University. References: M. Granger Morgan and David Keith, "Subjective Judgments by Climate Experts," Environmental Science & Technology, 29(10), 468A-476A, October 1995. M. Granger Morgan, Louis F. Pitelka and Elena Shevliakova, "Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems," Climatic Change, 49, 279-307, 2001. M. Granger Morgan, Peter Adams, and David W. Keith, "Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Aerosol Forcing," Climatic Change, 75, 195-214, 2006. Kirsten Zickfeld, Anders Levermann, Till Kuhlbrodt. Stefan Rahmstorf, M. Granger Morgan and David Keith, "Expert Judgements on the Response on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to Climate Change," Climatic Change, 82, 235-265, 2007

  5. Methods of Eliciting Information from Experts

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-10-01

    Itzhak Perlman) or a concertmeister in an orchestra, or simply one of its violinists . Differences in amount of expertise may supply different...would lead to becoming a world class violinist . Underlying Assumptions In attempting to elicit information from experts, one makes a number of

  6. Simplified Expert Elicitation Procedure for Risk Assessment of Operating Events

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; David Gertman; Jeffrey Joe; Julie Marble; William Galyean; Larry Blackwood; Harold Blackman

    2005-06-01

    This report describes a simplified, tractable, and usable procedure within the US Nuclear Regulator Commission (NRC) for seeking expert opinion and judgment. The NRC has increased efforts to document the reliability and risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs) through Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) models. The Significance Determination Process (SDP) and Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) programs at the NRC utilize expert judgment on the probability of failure, human error, and the operability of equipment in cases where otherwise insufficient operational data exist to make meaningful estimates. In the past, the SDP and ASP programs informally sought the opinion of experts inside and outside the NRC. This document represents a formal, documented procedure to take the place of informal expert elicitation. The procedures outlined in this report follow existing formal expert elicitation methodologies, but are streamlined as appropriate to the degree of accuracy required and the schedule for producing SDP and ASP analyses.

  7. Eliciting and using expert knowledge in metrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Hagan, Anthony

    2014-08-01

    The expression of uncertainty has hitherto been seen as an add-on—first an estimate is obtained and then uncertainty in that estimate is evaluated. We argue that quantification of uncertainty should be an intrinsic part of measurement and that the measurement result should be a probability distribution for the measurand. Full quantification of uncertainties in measurement, recognizing and quantifying all sources of uncertainty, is rarely simple. Many potential sources of uncertainty can effectively only be quantified by the application of expert judgement. Scepticism about the validity or reliability of expert judgement has meant that these sources of uncertainty have often been overlooked, ignored or treated in a qualitative, narrative way. But the consequence of this is that reported expressions of uncertainty regularly understate the true degree of uncertainty in measurements. This article first discusses the concept of quantifying uncertainty in measurement, and then considers some of the areas where expert judgement is needed in order to quantify fully the uncertainties in measurement. The remainder of the article is devoted to describing methodology for eliciting expert knowledge.

  8. Expert elicitation of population-level effects of disturbance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fleishman, Erica; Burgman, Mark; Runge, Michael C.; Schick, Robert S; Krauss, Scott; Popper, Arthur N.; Hawkins, Anthony

    2016-01-01

    Expert elicitation is a rigorous method for synthesizing expert knowledge to inform decision making and is reliable and practical when field data are limited. We evaluated the feasibility of applying expert elicitation to estimate population-level effects of disturbance on marine mammals. Diverse experts estimated parameters related to mortality and sublethal injury of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis). We are now eliciting expert knowledge on the movement of right whales among geographic regions to parameterize a spatial model of health. Expert elicitation complements methods such as simulation models or extrapolations from other species, sometimes with greater accuracy and less uncertainty.

  9. Expert Elicitation of Population-Level Effects of Disturbance.

    PubMed

    Fleishman, Erica; Burgman, Mark; Runge, Michael C; Schick, Robert S; Kraus, Scott

    2016-01-01

    Expert elicitation is a rigorous method for synthesizing expert knowledge to inform decision making and is reliable and practical when field data are limited. We evaluated the feasibility of applying expert elicitation to estimate population-level effects of disturbance on marine mammals. Diverse experts estimated parameters related to mortality and sublethal injury of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis). We are now eliciting expert knowledge on the movement of right whales among geographic regions to parameterize a spatial model of health. Expert elicitation complements methods such as simulation models or extrapolations from other species, sometimes with greater accuracy and less uncertainty.

  10. Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Expert Elicitation Project

    SciTech Connect

    Coppersmith, Kevin J.; Perman, Roseanne C.

    1998-01-01

    This report presents results of the Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Expert Elicitation (SZEE) project for Yucca Mountain, Nevada. This project was sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and managed by Geomatrix Consultants, Inc. (Geomatrix), for TRW Environmental Safety Systems, Inc. The DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (referred to as the YMP) is intended to evaluate the suitability of the site for construction of a mined geologic repository for the permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The SZEE project is one of several that involve the elicitation of experts to characterize the knowledge and uncertainties regarding key inputs to the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA). The objective of the current project was to characterize the uncertainties associated with certain key issues related to the saturated zone system in the Yucca Mountain area and downgradient region. An understanding of saturated zone processes is critical to evaluating the performance of the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. A major goal of the project was to capture the uncertainties involved in assessing the saturated flow processes, including uncertainty in both the models used to represent the physical processes controlling saturated zone flow and transport, and the parameter values used in the models. So that the analysis included a wide range of perspectives, multiple individual judgments were elicited from members of an expert panel. The panel members, who were experts from within and outside the Yucca Mountain project, represented a range of experience and expertise. A deliberate process was followed in facilitating interactions among the experts, in training them to express their uncertainties, and in eliciting their interpretations. The resulting assessments and probability distributions, therefore, provide a reasonable aggregate representation of the knowledge and

  11. An Expert Elicitation Process in Support of Groundwater Model Evaluation for Frenchman Flat, Nevada National Security Site

    SciTech Connect

    Chapman Jenny,Pohlmann Karl

    2011-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is implementing corrective actions at facilities where nuclear-related operations were conducted in Nevada. Among the most significant sites being addressed are the locations of underground nuclear tests on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The process for implementing corrective actions for the Underground Test Area (UGTA) locations is defined in Appendix VI of a Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (1996, as amended). In broad terms, Appendix VI describes a Corrective Action Investigation followed by a Corrective Action Decision, and implementation of a Corrective Action Plan prior to closure. The Frenchman Flat Corrective Action Unit (CAU) is farthest along in the UGTA corrective action process. It includes ten underground tests within the Frenchman Flat topographic basin, in the southeastern portion of the NNSS. Data have been collected from drilling exploration, hydrologic testing, and field and laboratory studies. Modeling has been completed at a variety of scales and focusing on a variety of flow and transport aspects ranging from regional boundary conditions to process dynamics within a single nuclear cavity. The culmination of the investigations is a transport model for the Frenchman Flat CAU (Stoller Navarro Joint Venture, 2009) that has undergone rigorous peer review and been accepted by the State of Nevada, setting the stage for the Corrective Action Decision and progression from the investigation phase to the corrective action phase of the project.

  12. Implementation of the PR&PP methodology: the role of formal expert elicitations

    SciTech Connect

    Pilat, Joseph F

    2010-01-01

    The application of the methodology developed by the GenIV International Forum's (GIF's) Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) Working Group is an expert elicitation. Although the framework of the methodology is structured and systematic, it does not by itself constitute or require a formal elicitation. However, formal elicitation can be utilized in the PR&PP context to provide a systematic, credible and transparent qualitative analysis and develop input for quantitative analyses. This section provides an overview of expert elicitations, a discussion of the role formal expert elicitations can play in the PR&PP methodology, an outline of the formal expert elicitation process and a brief practical guide to conducting formal expert elicitations. Expert elicitation is a process utilizing knowledgeable people in cases, for example, when an assessment is needed but physically based data is absent or open to interpretation. More specifically, it can be used to: (1) predict future events; (2) provide estimates on new, rare, complex or poorly understood phenomena; (3) integrate or interpret existing information; or (4) determine what is currently known, how well it is known or what is worth learning in a field. Expert elicitation can be informal or formal. The informal application of expert judgment is frequently used. Although it can produce good results, it often provides demonstrably biased or otherwise flawed answers to problems. This along with the absence of transparency can result in a loss of confidence when experts speak on issues. More formal expert elicitation is a structured process that makes use of people knowledgeable in certain areas to make assessments. The reason for advocating formal use is that the quality and accuracy of expert judgment comes from the completeness of the expert's understanding of the phenomena and the process used to elicit and analyze the data. The use of a more formal process to obtain, lU1derstand and analyze expert

  13. CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2012-10-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.

  14. Some properties of probability inversion algorithms to elicit expert opinion.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lark, Murray

    2015-04-01

    Probability inversion methods have been developed to infer underlying expert utility functions from rankings that experts offer of subsets of scenarios. The method assumes that the expert ranking reflects an underlying utility, which can be modelled as a function of predictive covariates. This is potentially useful as a method for the extraction of expert opinions for prediction in new scenarios. Two particular algorithms are considered here, the IPF algorithm and the PURE algorithm. The former always converges for consistent sets of rankings and finds a solution which minimizes the mutual information of the estimated utilities and an initial random sample of proposed utilities drawn in the algorithm. In this poster I report some empirical studies on the probability inversion procedure, investigating the effects of the size of the expert panel, the consistency and quality of the expert panel and the validity of the predictive covariates. These results have practical implications for the design of elicitation by probability inversion methods.

  15. Use of expert judgment elicitation to estimate seismic vulnerability of selected building types

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, K.S.; Aspinall, W.; Perkins, D.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.A.

    2012-01-01

    Pooling engineering input on earthquake building vulnerability through an expert judgment elicitation process requires careful deliberation. This article provides an overview of expert judgment procedures including the Delphi approach and the Cooke performance-based method to estimate the seismic vulnerability of a building category.

  16. Estimating unknown parameters in haemophilia using expert judgement elicitation.

    PubMed

    Fischer, K; Lewandowski, D; Janssen, M P

    2013-09-01

    The increasing attention to healthcare costs and treatment efficiency has led to an increasing demand for quantitative data concerning patient and treatment characteristics in haemophilia. However, most of these data are difficult to obtain. The aim of this study was to use expert judgement elicitation (EJE) to estimate currently unavailable key parameters for treatment models in severe haemophilia A. Using a formal expert elicitation procedure, 19 international experts provided information on (i) natural bleeding frequency according to age and onset of bleeding, (ii) treatment of bleeds, (iii) time needed to control bleeding after starting secondary prophylaxis, (iv) dose requirements for secondary prophylaxis according to onset of bleeding, and (v) life-expectancy. For each parameter experts provided their quantitative estimates (median, P10, P90), which were combined using a graphical method. In addition, information was obtained concerning key decision parameters of haemophilia treatment. There was most agreement between experts regarding bleeding frequencies for patients treated on demand with an average onset of joint bleeding (1.7 years): median 12 joint bleeds per year (95% confidence interval 0.9-36) for patients ≤ 18, and 11 (0.8-61) for adult patients. Less agreement was observed concerning estimated effective dose for secondary prophylaxis in adults: median 2000 IU every other day The majority (63%) of experts expected that a single minor joint bleed could cause irreversible damage, and would accept up to three minor joint bleeds or one trauma related joint bleed annually on prophylaxis. Expert judgement elicitation allowed structured capturing of quantitative expert estimates. It generated novel data to be used in computer modelling, clinical care, and trial design.

  17. Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiser, Ryan; Jenni, Karen; Seel, Joachim; Baker, Erin; Hand, Maureen; Lantz, Eric; Smith, Aaron

    2016-10-01

    Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends—in part—on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. Here, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world’s foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24-30% reductions by 2030 and 35-41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy and planning, R&D and industry strategy.

  18. Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

    SciTech Connect

    Wiser, Ryan; Jenni, Karen; Seel, Joachim; Baker, Erin; Hand, Maureen; Lantz, Eric; Smith, Aaron

    2016-09-12

    Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends -- in part -- on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. Here, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world's foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24-30% reductions by 2030 and 35-41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy and planning, R&D and industry strategy.

  19. The use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment: a seven step procedure

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Environmental health impact assessments often have to deal with substantial uncertainties. Typically, the knowledge-base is limited with incomplete, or inconsistent evidence and missing or ambiguous data. Consulting experts can help to identify and address uncertainties. Methods Formal expert elicitation is a structured approach to systematically consult experts on uncertain issues. It is most often used to quantify ranges for poorly known parameters, but may also be useful to further develop qualitative issues such as definitions, assumptions or conceptual (causal) models. A thorough preparation and systematic design and execution of an expert elicitation process may increase the validity of its outcomes and transparency and trustworthiness of its conclusions. Various expert elicitation protocols and methods exist. However, these are often not universally applicable, and need customization to suite the needs of a specific study. In this paper, we set out to develop a widely applicable method for the use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment. Results We present a practical yet flexible seven step procedure towards organising expert elicitation in the context of environmental health impact assessment, based on existing protocols. We describe how customization for specific applications is always necessary. In particular, three issues affect the choice of methods for a particular application: the types of uncertainties considered, the intended use of the elicited information, and the available resources. We outline how these three considerations guide choices regarding the design and execution of expert elicitation. We present signposts to sources where the issues are discussed in more depth to give the newcomer the insights needed to make the protocol work. The seven step procedure is illustrated using examples from earlier published elicitations in the field of environmental health research. Conclusions We conclude that, despite

  20. Expert elicitation for a national-level volcano hazard model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bebbington, Mark; Stirling, Mark; Cronin, Shane; Wang, Ting; Jolly, Gill

    2016-04-01

    The quantification of volcanic hazard at national level is a vital pre-requisite to placing volcanic risk on a platform that permits meaningful comparison with other hazards such as earthquakes. New Zealand has up to a dozen dangerous volcanoes, with the usual mixed degrees of knowledge concerning their temporal and spatial eruptive history. Information on the 'size' of the eruptions, be it in terms of VEI, volume or duration, is sketchy at best. These limitations and the need for a uniform approach lend themselves to a subjective hazard analysis via expert elicitation. Approximately 20 New Zealand volcanologists provided estimates for the size of the next eruption from each volcano and, conditional on this, its location, timing and duration. Opinions were likewise elicited from a control group of statisticians, seismologists and (geo)chemists, all of whom had at least heard the term 'volcano'. The opinions were combined via the Cooke classical method. We will report on the preliminary results from the exercise.

  1. Developing a job-exposure matrix with exposure uncertainty from expert elicitation and data modeling.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Heidi J; Vergara, Ximena P; Yost, Michael; Silva, Michael; Lombardi, David A; Kheifets, Leeka

    2017-01-01

    Job exposure matrices (JEMs) are tools used to classify exposures for job titles based on general job tasks in the absence of individual level data. However, exposure uncertainty due to variations in worker practices, job conditions, and the quality of data has never been quantified systematically in a JEM. We describe a methodology for creating a JEM which defines occupational exposures on a continuous scale and utilizes elicitation methods to quantify exposure uncertainty by assigning exposures probability distributions with parameters determined through expert involvement. Experts use their knowledge to develop mathematical models using related exposure surrogate data in the absence of available occupational level data and to adjust model output against other similar occupations. Formal expert elicitation methods provided a consistent, efficient process to incorporate expert judgment into a large, consensus-based JEM. A population-based electric shock JEM was created using these methods, allowing for transparent estimates of exposure.

  2. Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lark, Murray

    2015-04-01

    At BGS, expert elicitation has been used to evaluate uncertainty of surveyed boundaries in several, common, geological scenarios. As a result, a 'collective' understanding of the issues surrounding each scenario has emerged. The work has provoked wider debate in three key areas: a) what can we do to resolve those scenarios where a 'consensus' of understanding cannot be achieved b) what does it mean for survey practices and subsequent use of maps in 3D models c) how do we communicate the 'collective' understanding of geological mapping (with or without consensus for specific scenarios). Previous work elicited expert judgement for uncertainty in six contrasting mapping scenarios. In five cases it was possible to arrive at a consensus model; in a sixth case experts with different experience (length of service, academic background) took very different views of the nature of the mapping problem. The scenario concerned identification of the boundary between two contrasting tills (one derived from Triassic source materials being red in colour; the other, derived from Jurassic materials being grey in colour). Initial debate during the elicitation identified that the colour contrast should provide some degree of confidence in locating the boundary via traditional auger-traverse survey methods. However, as the elicitation progressed, it became clear that the complexities of the relationship between the two Tills were not uniformly understood across the experts and the panel could not agree a consensus regarding the spatial uncertainty of the boundary. The elicitation process allowed a significant degree of structured knowledge-exchange between experts of differing backgrounds and was successful in identifying a measure of uncertainty for what was considered a contentious scenario. However, the findings have significant implications for a boundary-scenario that is widely mapped across the central regions of Great Britain. We will discuss our experience of the use of

  3. Quantifying the Effects of Expert Selection and Elicitation Design on Experts' Confidence in Their Judgments About Future Energy Technologies.

    PubMed

    Nemet, Gregory F; Anadon, Laura Diaz; Verdolini, Elena

    2016-03-31

    Expert elicitations are now frequently used to characterize uncertain future technology outcomes. However, their usefulness is limited, in part because: estimates across studies are not easily comparable; choices in survey design and expert selection may bias results; and overconfidence is a persistent problem. We provide quantitative evidence of how these choices affect experts' estimates. We standardize data from 16 elicitations, involving 169 experts, on the 2030 costs of five energy technologies: nuclear, biofuels, bioelectricity, solar, and carbon capture. We estimate determinants of experts' confidence using survey design, expert characteristics, and public R&D investment levels on which the elicited values are conditional. Our central finding is that when experts respond to elicitations in person (vs. online or mail) they ascribe lower confidence (larger uncertainty) to their estimates, but more optimistic assessments of best-case (10th percentile) outcomes. The effects of expert affiliation and country of residence vary by technology, but in general: academics and public-sector experts express lower confidence than private-sector experts; and E.U. experts are more confident than U.S. experts. Finally, extending previous technology-specific work, higher R&D spending increases experts' uncertainty rather than resolves it. We discuss ways in which these findings should be seriously considered in interpreting the results of existing elicitations and in designing new ones.

  4. Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawley, Russell; Barron, Mark; Lee, Katy

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainty in geological linework: communicating the expert's tacit model to the data user(s) by expert elicitation. R. Lawley, M. Barron and K. Lee. NERC - British Geological Survey, Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth, Nottingham, UK, NG12 5GG The boundaries mapped in traditional field geological survey are subject to a wide range of inherent uncertainties. A map at a survey-scale of 1:10,000 is created by a combination of terrain interpretation, direct observations from boreholes and exposures (often sparsely distributed), and indirect interpretation of proxy variables such as soil properties, vegetation and remotely sensed images. A critical factor influencing the quality of the final map is the skill and experience of the surveyor to bring this information together in a coherent conceptual model. The users of geological data comprising or based on mapped boundaries are increasingly aware of these uncertainties, and want to know how to manage them. The growth of 3D modelling, which takes 2D surveys as a starting point, adds urgency to the need for a better understanding of survey uncertainties; particularly where 2D mapping of variable vintage has been compiled into a national coverage. Previous attempts to apply confidence on the basis of metrics such as data density, survey age or survey techniques have proved useful for isolating single, critical, factors but do not generally succeed in evaluating geological mapping 'in the round', because they cannot account for the 'conceptual' skill set of the surveyor. The British Geological Survey (BGS) is using expert elicitation methods to gain a better understanding of uncertainties within the national geological map of Great Britain. The expert elicitation approach starts with the assumption that experienced surveyors have an intuitive sense of the uncertainty of the boundaries that they map, based on a tacit model of geology and its complexity and the nature of the surveying process. The objective of

  5. Expert elicitation, uncertainty, and the value of information in controlling invasive species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Fred A.; Smith, Brian J.; Bonneau, Mathieu; Martin, Julien; Romagosa, Christina; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Waddle, Hardin; Reed, Robert; Eckles, Jennifer Kettevrlin; Vitt, Laurie J.

    2017-01-01

    We illustrate the utility of expert elicitation, explicit recognition of uncertainty, and the value of information for directing management and research efforts for invasive species, using tegu lizards (Salvator merianae) in southern Florida as a case study. We posited a post-birth pulse, matrix model in which four age classes of tegus are recognized: hatchlings, 1 year-old, 2 year-olds, and 3 + year-olds. This matrix model was parameterized using a 3-point process to elicit estimates of tegu demographic rates in southern Florida from 10 herpetology experts. We fit statistical distributions for each parameter and for each expert, then drew and pooled a large number of replicate samples from these to form a distribution for each demographic parameter. Using these distributions, as well as the observed correlations among elicited values, we generated a large sample of matrix population models to infer how the tegu population would respond to control efforts. We used the concepts of Pareto efficiency and stochastic dominance to conclude that targeting older age classes at relatively high rates appears to have the best chance of minimizing tegu abundance and control costs. We conclude that expert opinion combined with an explicit consideration of uncertainty can be valuable in conducting an initial assessment of what control strategy, effort, and monetary resources are needed to reduce and eventually eliminate the invader. Scientists, in turn, can use the value of information to focus research in a way that not only increases the efficacy of control, but minimizes costs as well.

  6. Classification of Listeria monocytogenes persistence in retail delicatessen environments using expert elicitation and machine learning.

    PubMed

    Vangay, P; Steingrimsson, J; Wiedmann, M; Stasiewicz, M J

    2014-10-01

    Increasing evidence suggests that persistence of Listeria monocytogenes in food processing plants has been the underlying cause of a number of human listeriosis outbreaks. This study extracts criteria used by food safety experts in determining bacterial persistence in the environment, using retail delicatessen operations as a model. Using the Delphi method, we conducted an expert elicitation with 10 food safety experts from academia, industry, and government to classify L. monocytogenes persistence based on environmental sampling results collected over six months for 30 retail delicatessen stores. The results were modeled using variations of random forest, support vector machine, logistic regression, and linear regression; variable importance values of random forest and support vector machine models were consolidated to rank important variables in the experts' classifications. The duration of subtype isolation ranked most important across all expert categories. Sampling site category also ranked high in importance and validation errors doubled when this covariate was removed. Support vector machine and random forest models successfully classified the data with average validation errors of 3.1% and 2.2% (n = 144), respectively. Our findings indicate that (i) the frequency of isolations over time and sampling site information are critical factors for experts determining subtype persistence, (ii) food safety experts from different sectors may not use the same criteria in determining persistence, and (iii) machine learning models have potential for future use in environmental surveillance and risk management programs. Future work is necessary to validate the accuracy of expert and machine classification against biological measurement of L. monocytogenes persistence.

  7. Numerical Algorithms for the Analysis of Expert Opinions Elicited in Text Format

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-04-01

    applied to subject matter expert text data elicited through carefully constructed decision support workshops. In the main these workshops address...various stake-holder groups. These workshops are carefully designed to address specific defence questions and to elicit, record and analyse expert...each of these topics. • Differential Analysis: Differential analysis concerns identifying and quantifying the differences between subsets of text, where

  8. A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akram, Muhammad Farooq Bin

    The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to- be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system makes it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is the most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for

  9. Application and Evaluation of an Expert Judgment Elicitation Procedure for Correlations

    PubMed Central

    Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; van de Schoot-Hubeek, Wenneke; Lek, Kimberley; Hoijtink, Herbert; van de Schoot, Rens

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the current study was to apply and evaluate a procedure to elicit expert judgments about correlations, and to update this information with empirical data. The result is a face-to-face group elicitation procedure with as its central element a trial roulette question that elicits experts' judgments expressed as distributions. During the elicitation procedure, a concordance probability question was used to provide feedback to the experts on their judgments. We evaluated the elicitation procedure in terms of validity and reliability by means of an application with a small sample of experts. Validity means that the elicited distributions accurately represent the experts' judgments. Reliability concerns the consistency of the elicited judgments over time. Four behavioral scientists provided their judgments with respect to the correlation between cognitive potential and academic performance for two separate populations enrolled at a specific school in the Netherlands that provides special education to youth with severe behavioral problems: youth with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), and youth with diagnoses other than ASD. Measures of face-validity, feasibility, convergent validity, coherence, and intra-rater reliability showed promising results. Furthermore, the current study illustrates the use of the elicitation procedure and elicited distributions in a social science application. The elicited distributions were used as a prior for the correlation, and updated with data for both populations collected at the school of interest. The current study shows that the newly developed elicitation procedure combining the trial roulette method with the elicitation of correlations is a promising tool, and that the results of the procedure are useful as prior information in a Bayesian analysis. PMID:28197115

  10. Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, M. Granger

    2014-01-01

    The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making. PMID:24821779

  11. Expert Elicitation Methods in Quantifying the Consequences of Acoustic Disturbance from Offshore Renewable Energy Developments.

    PubMed

    Donovan, Carl; Harwood, John; King, Stephanie; Booth, Cormac; Caneco, Bruno; Walker, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    There are many developments for offshore renewable energy around the United Kingdom whose installation typically produces large amounts of far-reaching noise, potentially disturbing many marine mammals. The potential to affect the favorable conservation status of many species means extensive environmental impact assessment requirements for the licensing of such installation activities. Quantification of such complex risk problems is difficult and much of the key information is not readily available. Expert elicitation methods can be employed in such pressing cases. We describe the methodology used in an expert elicitation study conducted in the United Kingdom for combining expert opinions based on statistical distributions and copula-like methods.

  12. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, Sonie; Yan, Jerry C.

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 1990s cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient implementation of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real-time demands are met for larger systems. Speedup via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial laboratories in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems is surveyed. The survey discusses multiprocessors for expert systems, parallel languages for symbolic computations, and mapping expert systems to multiprocessors. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. The main reasons are (1) the body of knowledge applicable in any given situation and the amount of computation executed by each rule firing are small, (2) dividing the problem solving process into relatively independent partitions is difficult, and (3) implementation decisions that enable expert systems to be incrementally refined hamper compile-time optimization. In order to obtain greater speedups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  13. Parallel processing and expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yan, Jerry C.; Lau, Sonie

    1991-01-01

    Whether it be monitoring the thermal subsystem of Space Station Freedom, or controlling the navigation of the autonomous rover on Mars, NASA missions in the 90's cannot enjoy an increased level of autonomy without the efficient use of expert systems. Merely increasing the computational speed of uniprocessors may not be able to guarantee that real time demands are met for large expert systems. Speed-up via parallel processing must be pursued alongside the optimization of sequential implementations. Prototypes of parallel expert systems have been built at universities and industrial labs in the U.S. and Japan. The state-of-the-art research in progress related to parallel execution of expert systems was surveyed. The survey is divided into three major sections: (1) multiprocessors for parallel expert systems; (2) parallel languages for symbolic computations; and (3) measurements of parallelism of expert system. Results to date indicate that the parallelism achieved for these systems is small. In order to obtain greater speed-ups, data parallelism and application parallelism must be exploited.

  14. Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Aspinall, W. P.; Cooke, R. M.; Havelaar, A. H.; Hoffmann, S.; Hald, T.

    2016-01-01

    For many societally important science-based decisions, data are inadequate, unreliable or non-existent, and expert advice is sought. In such cases, procedures for eliciting structured expert judgments (SEJ) are increasingly used. This raises questions regarding validity and reproducibility. This paper presents new findings from a large-scale international SEJ study intended to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease on behalf of WHO. The study involved 72 experts distributed over 134 expert panels, with panels comprising thirteen experts on average. Elicitations were conducted in five languages. Performance-based weighted solutions for target questions of interest were formed for each panel. These weights were based on individual expert’s statistical accuracy and informativeness, determined using between ten and fifteen calibration variables from the experts' field with known values. Equal weights combinations were also calculated. The main conclusions on expert performance are: (1) SEJ does provide a science-based method for attribution of the global burden of foodborne diseases; (2) equal weighting of experts per panel increased statistical accuracy to acceptable levels, but at the cost of informativeness; (3) performance-based weighting increased informativeness, while retaining accuracy; (4) due to study constraints individual experts’ accuracies were generally lower than in other SEJ studies, and (5) there was a negative correlation between experts' informativeness and statistical accuracy which attenuated as accuracy improved, revealing that the least accurate experts drive the negative correlation. It is shown, however, that performance-based weighting has the ability to yield statistically accurate and informative combinations of experts' judgments, thereby offsetting this contrary influence. The present findings suggest that application of SEJ on a large scale is feasible, and motivate the development of enhanced training and tools for remote

  15. 40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ..., background information provided to experts, and deliberations and formal interactions among experts shall be... and technical views to expert panels as input to any expert elicitation process....

  16. Using expert elicitation to quantify catchment water balances and their uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sebok, E.; Refsgaard, J. C.; Warmink, J. J.; Stisen, S.; Jensen, K. H.

    2016-07-01

    Expert elicitation with the participation of 35 experts was used to estimate a water balance for the nested Ahlergaarde and Holtum catchments in Western Denmark. Average annual values of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and surface runoff as well as subsurface outflow and recharge and their uncertainty were estimated in a multistep elicitation, where experts first gave their opinion on the probability distribution of their water balance component of interest, then the average annual values and uncertainty of water balance components and catchment-scale water balances were obtained by reaching consensus during group discussions. The obtained water balance errors for the 1055 km2 Ahlergaarde catchment and 120 km2 Holtum catchment were -5 and -62 mm/yr, respectively, with an uncertainty of 66 and 86 mm/yr, respectively. As an advantage of the expert elicitation, drawing on the intuitive experience and capabilities of experts to assess complex, site-specific problems, the contribution of independent sources of uncertainties to the total uncertainty was also evaluated similarly to the subsurface outflow component, which traditionally is estimated as the residual of the water balance.

  17. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  18. Research Synthesis Methods in an Age of Globalized Risks: Lessons from the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease Expert Elicitation.

    PubMed

    2016-02-01

    We live in an age that increasingly calls for national or regional management of global risks. This article discusses the contributions that expert elicitation can bring to efforts to manage global risks and identifies challenges faced in conducting expert elicitation at this scale. In doing so it draws on lessons learned from conducting an expert elicitation as part of the World Health Organizations (WHO) initiative to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease; a study commissioned by the Foodborne Disease Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG). Expert elicitation is designed to fill gaps in data and research using structured, transparent methods. Such gaps are a significant challenge for global risk modeling. Experience with the WHO FERG expert elicitation shows that it is feasible to conduct an expert elicitation at a global scale, but that challenges do arise, including: defining an informative, yet feasible geographical structure for the elicitation; defining what constitutes expertise in a global setting; structuring international, multidisciplinary expert panels; and managing demands on experts' time in the elicitation. This article was written as part of a workshop, "Methods for Research Synthesis: A Cross-Disciplinary Approach" held at the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis on October 13, 2013.

  19. Development of an Expert Judgement Elicitation and Calibration Methodology for Risk Analysis in Conceptual Vehicle Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Unal, Resit; Keating, Charles; Conway, Bruce; Chytka, Trina

    2004-01-01

    A comprehensive expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty and analysis tool uncertainty in a conceptual launch vehicle design analysis has been developed. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. The purpose of this report is to document the methodology development and its validation through application to a reference aerospace vehicle. A detailed summary of the application exercise, including calibration and aggregation results is presented. A discussion of possible future steps in this research area is given.

  20. Flammable gas double shell tank expert elicitation presentations (Part A and Part B)

    SciTech Connect

    Bratzel, D.R.

    1998-04-17

    This document is a compilation of presentation packages and white papers for the Flammable Gas Double Shell Tank Expert Elicitation Workshop {number_sign}2. For each presentation given by the different authors, a separate section was developed. The purpose for issuing these workshop presentation packages and white papers as a supporting document is to provide traceability and a Quality Assurance record for future reference to these packages.

  1. Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard

    SciTech Connect

    K.J. Coppersmith; R.C. Perman; R.R. Youngs

    2006-05-10

    Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. Further, all uncertainty models should endeavor to consider the range of views of the larger technical community at the time the hazard analysis is conducted. In some cases, especially for large projects under regulatory review, formal structured methods for eliciting expert judgments have been employed. Experience has shown that certain key elements are required for these assessments to be successful, including: (1) experts should be trained in probability theory, uncertainty quantification, and ways to avoid common cognitive biases; (2) comprehensive and user-friendly databases should be provided to the experts; (3) experts should be required to evaluate all potentially credible hypotheses; (4) workshops and other interactions among the experts and proponents of published viewpoints should be encouraged; (5) elicitations are best conducted in individual interview sessions; (6) feedback should be provided to the experts to give them insight into the significance of alternative assessments to the hazard results; and (7) complete documentation should include the technical basis for all assessments. Case histories are given from seismic hazard analyses in Europe, western North America, and the stable continental region of the United States.

  2. Tectonic risk forecasting through expert elicitation for geological repositories: the TOPAZ project

    SciTech Connect

    Goto, Junichi; Kawamura, Hideki; Chapman, Neil

    2013-07-01

    This paper describes the development of a probabilistic methodology for the evaluation of tectonic hazards to geological repositories in Japan. The approach is a development of NUMO's ITM methodology, which produced probabilistic hazard maps for volcanism and rock deformation for periods up to about 100,000 years in a set of Case Studies that covered a large area of the country. To address potential regulatory requirements, the TOPAZ project has extended the ITM methodology to look into the period between 100,000 and 1 million years, where significant uncertainties begin to emerge about the tectonic framework within which quantitative forecasting can be made. Part of this methodology extension has been to adopt expert elicitation techniques to capture differing expert views as a means of addressing such uncertainties. This paper briefly outlines progress in this development work to date. (authors)

  3. Joint USNRC/EC consequence uncertainty study: The ingestion pathway, dosimetry and health effects expert judgment elicitations and results

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, F.; Goossens, L.; Abbott, M.

    1996-08-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the European Commission (EC) have conducted a formal expert judgment elicitation jointly to systematically collect the quantitative information needed to perform consequence uncertainty analyses on a broad set of commercial nuclear power plants. Information from three sets of joint US/European expert panels was collected and processed. Information from the three sets of panels was collected in the following areas: in the phenomenological areas of atmospheric dispersion and deposition, in the areas of ingestion pathways and external dosimetry, and in the areas of health effects and internal dosimetry. This exercise has demonstrated that the uncertainty for particular issues as measured by the ratio of the 95th percentile to the 5th percentile can be extremely large (orders of magnitude), or rather small (factor of two). This information has already been used by many of the experts that were involved in this process in areas other than the consequence uncertainty field. The benefit to the field of radiological consequences is just beginning as the results of this study are published and made available to the consequence community.

  4. Parameterizing Bayesian network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models by Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

    2010-05-23

    Bayesian networks provide a general framework with which to model many natural phenomena. The mathematical nature of Bayesian networks enables a plethora of model validation and calibration techniques: e.g parameter estimation, goodness of fit tests, and diagnostic checking of the model assumptions. However, they are not free of shortcomings. Parameter estimation from relevant extant data is a common approach to calibrating the model parameters. In practice it is not uncommon to find oneself lacking adequate data to reliably estimate all model parameters. In this paper we present the early development of a novel application of conjoint analysis as a method for eliciting and modeling expert opinions and using the results in a methodology for calibrating the parameters of a Bayesian network.

  5. Eliciting information from experts on the likelihood of rapid climate change.

    PubMed

    Arnell, Nigel W; Tompkins, Emma L; Adger, W Neil

    2005-12-01

    The threat of so-called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to estimate likelihoods? This article reviews the societal demand for the likelihoods of rapid or abrupt climate change, and different methods for estimating likelihoods: past experience, model simulation, or through the elicitation of expert judgments. The article describes a survey to estimate the likelihoods of two characterizations of rapid climate change, and explores the issues associated with such surveys and the value of information produced. The surveys were based on key scientists chosen for their expertise in the climate science of abrupt climate change. Most survey respondents ascribed low likelihoods to rapid climate change, due either to the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation or increased positive feedbacks. In each case one assessment was an order of magnitude higher than the others. We explore a high rate of refusal to participate in this expert survey: many scientists prefer to rely on output from future climate model simulations.

  6. Elicitation of expert judgments of uncertainty in the risk assessment of herbicide-tolerant oilseed crops.

    PubMed

    Krayer von Krauss, Martin P; Casman, Elizabeth A; Small, Mitchell J

    2004-12-01

    One of the lay public's concerns about genetically modified (GM) organisms (GMO) and related emerging technologies is that not all the important risks are evaluated or even identified yet--and that ignorance of the unanticipated risks could lead to severe environmental or public health consequences. To some degree, even the scientists who participated in the analysis of the risks from GMOs (arguably the people most qualified to critique these analyses) share some of this concern. To formally explore the uncertainty in the risk assessment of a GM crop, we conducted detailed interviews of seven leading experts on GM oilseed crops to obtain qualitative and quantitative information on their understanding of the uncertainties associated with the risks to agriculture from GM oilseed crops (canola or rapeseed). The results of these elicitations revealed three issues of potential concern that are currently left outside the scope of risk assessments. These are (1) the potential loss of the agronomic and environmental benefits of glyphosate (a herbicide widely used in no-till agriculture) due to the combined problems of glyphosate-tolerant canola and wheat volunteer plants, (2) the growing problem of seed lot contamination, and (3) the potential market impacts. The elicitations also identified two areas where knowledge is insufficient. These are: the occurrence of hybridization between canola and wild relatives and the ability of the hybrids to perpetuate themselves in nature, and the fate of the herbicide-tolerance genes in soil and their interaction with soil microfauna and -flora. The methodological contribution of this work is a formal approach to analyzing the uncertainty surrounding complex problems.

  7. Which uncertainty? Using expert elicitation and expected value of information to design an adaptive program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, Michael C.; Converse, Sarah J.; Lyons, James E.

    2011-01-01

    Natural resource management is plagued with uncertainty of many kinds, but not all uncertainties are equally important to resolve. The promise of adaptive management is that learning in the short-term will improve management in the long-term; that promise is best kept if the focus of learning is on those uncertainties that most impede achievement of management objectives. In this context, an existing tool of decision analysis, the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), is particularly valuable in identifying the most important uncertainties. Expert elicitation can be used to develop preliminary predictions of management response under a series of hypotheses, as well as prior weights for those hypotheses, and the EVPI can be used to determine how much management could improve if uncertainty was resolved. These methods were applied to management of whooping cranes (Grus americana), an endangered migratory bird that is being reintroduced in several places in North America. The Eastern Migratory Population of whooping cranes had exhibited almost no successful reproduction through 2009. Several dozen hypotheses can be advanced to explain this failure, and many of them lead to very different management responses. An expert panel articulated the hypotheses, provided prior weights for them, developed potential management strategies, and made predictions about the response of the population to each strategy under each hypothesis. Multi-criteria decision analysis identified a preferred strategy in the face of uncertainty, and analysis of the expected value of information identified how informative each strategy could be. These results provide the foundation for design of an adaptive management program.

  8. Eliciting climate experts' knowledge to address model uncertainties in regional climate projections: a case study of Guanacaste, Northwest Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grossmann, I.; Steyn, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    Global general circulation models typically cannot provide the detailed and accurate regional climate information required by stakeholders for climate adaptation efforts, given their limited capacity to resolve the regional topography and changes in local sea surface temperature, wind and circulation patterns. The study region in Northwest Costa Rica has a tropical wet-dry climate with a double-peak wet season. During the dry season the central Costa Rican mountains prevent tropical Atlantic moisture from reaching the region. Most of the annual precipitation is received following the northward migration of the ITCZ in May that allows the region to benefit from moist southwesterly flow from the tropical Pacific. The wet season begins with a short period of "early rains" and is interrupted by the mid-summer drought associated with the intensification and westward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high in late June. Model projections for the 21st century indicate a lengthening and intensification of the mid-summer drought and a weakening of the early rains on which current crop cultivation practices rely. We developed an expert elicitation to systematically address uncertainties in the available model projections of changes in the seasonal precipitation pattern. Our approach extends an elicitation approach developed previously at Carnegie Mellon University. Experts in the climate of the study region or Central American climate were asked to assess the mechanisms driving precipitation during each part of the season, uncertainties regarding these mechanisms, expected changes in each mechanism in a warming climate, and the capacity of current models to reproduce these processes. To avoid overconfidence bias, a step-by-step procedure was followed to estimate changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation during each part of the season. The questions drew upon interviews conducted with the regions stakeholders to assess their climate information needs. This

  9. Expert systems in the process industries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stanley, G. M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of industrial applications of real-time knowledge based expert systems (KBES's) in the process industries. After a brief overview of the features of a KBES useful in process applications, the general roles of KBES's are covered. A particular focus is diagnostic applications, one of the major applications areas. Many applications are seen as an expansion of supervisory control. The lessons learned from numerous online applications are summarized.

  10. Introduction to cognitive processes of expert pilots.

    PubMed

    Adams, R J; Ericsson, A E

    2000-10-01

    This report addresses the historical problem that a very high percentage of accidents have been classified as involving "pilot error." Through extensive research since 1977, the Federal Aviation Administration determined that the predominant underlying cause of these types of accidents involved decisional problems or cognitive information processing. To attack these problems, Aeronautical Decision Making (ADM) training materials were developed and tested for ten years. Since the publication of the ADM training manuals in 1987, significant reductions in human performance error (HPE) accidents have been documented both in the U.S. and world wide. However, shortcomings have been observed in the use of these materials for recurrency training and in their relevance to more experienced pilots. The following discussion defines the differences between expert and novice decision makers from a cognitive information processing perspective, correlates the development of expert pilot cognitive processes with training and experience, and reviews accident scenarios which exemplify those processes. This introductory material is a necessary prerequisite to an understanding of how to formulate expert pilot decision making training innovations; and, to continue the record of improved safety through ADM training.

  11. How Expert Pilots Think Cognitive Processes in Expert Decision Making

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-02-01

    over many years and thousands of hours of learning and exposure. As with other fields of expertise, the pilots decision making abilities continue to...elaborately structured set of associated concepts, procedures and events ., based upon many years of study, training and experience in a aviation. The use of...with training and experience to show that many characteristics of Expert Decision Making (EDM) were enhanced as pilots accumulate flight time. The

  12. The NASA personnel security processing expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Silberberg, D.; Thomas, R.

    1996-12-31

    The NASA Personnel Security Processing Expert System is a tool that automatically determines the appropriate personnel background investigation required for a civil servant or contractor occupying a position of national security or public trust. It also instructs the personnel security processing staff to perform special checks based on a specific position. The system is implemented using a rule-based expert system and a World Wide Web interface. The system design separates the user interface, knowledge base and control structure to simplify system evolution. When one subsystem is modified, the others are impacted minimally. This system provides many benefits to the NASA Personnel Security Program. First, it frees the agency personnel security specialist from trouble-shooting and correcting all investigative problems. It also provides a learning tool for security processing staff at each installation. The system ensures that each installation security office is in compliance with all applicable laws, regulations and policies. Finally, eliminating overlapping, inappropriate and duplicative efforts to process employees saves many resources. The system was deployed less than a year ago. To date, it saved $1.2 million of the $1.5 million agency-wide personnel security budget.

  13. Challenges of Quantifying Meltwater Retention in Snow and Firn: AN Expert Elicitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van As, Dirk; Box, Jason; Fausto, Robert

    2016-11-01

    Thirty-four experts took part in a survey of the most important and challenging topics in the field of meltwater retention in snow and firn, to reveal those topics that present the largest potential for scientific advancement. The most important and challenging topic to the expert panel is spatial heterogeneity of percolation, both in measurement and model studies. Studying percolation blocking by ice layering, particularly in modeling, also provides large potential for science advancement, as well as hydraulic conductivity and capillary forces in snow/firn. Model studies can benefit from improved initialization, and improved calculation of accumulation and liquid water at the surface. Firn coring should be performed more often, though we argue that also data that are relatively simple to collect, but of great importance to retention such as surface accumulation, density and temperature, are too sparse due to the high logistical expenses involved in field campaigns. Generally speaking, retention changes are expected to be of importance to the surface mass balance and thus ice loss in coming decades, more so for Greenland than Antarctica or ice masses elsewhere.

  14. ISA implementation and uncertainty: a literature review and expert elicitation study.

    PubMed

    van der Pas, J W G M; Marchau, V A W J; Walker, W E; van Wee, G P; Vlassenroot, S H

    2012-09-01

    Each day, an average of over 116 people die from traffic accidents in the European Union. One out of three fatalities is estimated to be the result of speeding. The current state of technology makes it possible to make speeding more difficult, or even impossible, by placing intelligent speed limiters (so called ISA devices) in vehicles. Although the ISA technology has been available for some years now, and reducing the number of road traffic fatalities and injuries has been high on the European political agenda, implementation still seems to be far away. Experts indicate that there are still too many uncertainties surrounding ISA implementation, and dealing with these uncertainties is essential for implementing ISA. In this paper, a systematic and representative inventory of the uncertainties is made based upon the literature. Furthermore, experts in the field of ISA were surveyed and asked which uncertainties are barriers for ISA implementation, and how uncertain these uncertainties are. We found that the long-term effects and the effects of large-scale implementation of ISA are still uncertain and are the most important barriers for the implementation of the most effective types of ISA. One way to deal with these uncertainties would be to start implementation on a small scale and gradually expand the penetration, in order to learn how ISA influences the transport system over time.

  15. MERS-CoV at the Animal-Human Interface: Inputs on Exposure Pathways from an Expert-Opinion Elicitation.

    PubMed

    Funk, Anna L; Goutard, Flavie Luce; Miguel, Eve; Bourgarel, Mathieu; Chevalier, Veronique; Faye, Bernard; Peiris, J S Malik; Van Kerkhove, Maria D; Roger, Francois Louis

    2016-01-01

    Nearly 4 years after the first report of the emergence of Middle-East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and nearly 1800 human cases later, the ecology of MERS-CoV, its epidemiology, and more than risk factors of MERS-CoV transmission between camels are poorly understood. Knowledge about the pathways and mechanisms of transmission from animals to humans is limited; as of yet, transmission risks have not been quantified. Moreover the divergent sanitary situations and exposures to animals among populations in the Arabian Peninsula, where human primary cases appear to dominate, vs. other regions in the Middle East and Africa, with no reported human clinical cases and where the virus has been detected only in dromedaries, represents huge scientific and health challenges. Here, we have used expert-opinion elicitation in order to obtain ideas on relative importance of MERS-CoV risk factors and estimates of transmission risks from various types of contact between humans and dromedaries. Fourteen experts with diverse and extensive experience in MERS-CoV relevant fields were enrolled and completed an online questionnaire that examined pathways based on several scenarios, e.g., camels-camels, camels-human, bats/other species to camels/humans, and the role of diverse biological substances (milk, urine, etc.) and potential fomites. Experts believed that dromedary camels play the largest role in MERS-CoV infection of other dromedaries; however, they also indicated a significant influence of the season (i.e. calving or weaning periods) on transmission risk. All experts thought that MERS-CoV-infected dromedaries and asymptomatic humans play the most important role in infection of humans, with bats and other species presenting a possible, but yet undefined, risk. Direct and indirect contact of humans with dromedary camels were identified as the most risky types of contact, when compared to consumption of various camel products, with estimated "most likely" incidence

  16. MERS-CoV at the Animal–Human Interface: Inputs on Exposure Pathways from an Expert-Opinion Elicitation

    PubMed Central

    Funk, Anna L.; Goutard, Flavie Luce; Miguel, Eve; Bourgarel, Mathieu; Chevalier, Veronique; Faye, Bernard; Peiris, J. S. Malik; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Roger, Francois Louis

    2016-01-01

    Nearly 4 years after the first report of the emergence of Middle-East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and nearly 1800 human cases later, the ecology of MERS-CoV, its epidemiology, and more than risk factors of MERS-CoV transmission between camels are poorly understood. Knowledge about the pathways and mechanisms of transmission from animals to humans is limited; as of yet, transmission risks have not been quantified. Moreover the divergent sanitary situations and exposures to animals among populations in the Arabian Peninsula, where human primary cases appear to dominate, vs. other regions in the Middle East and Africa, with no reported human clinical cases and where the virus has been detected only in dromedaries, represents huge scientific and health challenges. Here, we have used expert-opinion elicitation in order to obtain ideas on relative importance of MERS-CoV risk factors and estimates of transmission risks from various types of contact between humans and dromedaries. Fourteen experts with diverse and extensive experience in MERS-CoV relevant fields were enrolled and completed an online questionnaire that examined pathways based on several scenarios, e.g., camels–camels, camels–human, bats/other species to camels/humans, and the role of diverse biological substances (milk, urine, etc.) and potential fomites. Experts believed that dromedary camels play the largest role in MERS-CoV infection of other dromedaries; however, they also indicated a significant influence of the season (i.e. calving or weaning periods) on transmission risk. All experts thought that MERS-CoV-infected dromedaries and asymptomatic humans play the most important role in infection of humans, with bats and other species presenting a possible, but yet undefined, risk. Direct and indirect contact of humans with dromedary camels were identified as the most risky types of contact, when compared to consumption of various camel products, with estimated “most likely

  17. The digital storytelling process: A comparative analysis from various experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hussain, Hashiroh; Shiratuddin, Norshuhada

    2016-08-01

    Digital Storytelling (DST) is a method of delivering information to the audience. It combines narrative and digital media content infused with the multimedia elements. In order for the educators (i.e the designers) to create a compelling digital story, there are sets of processes introduced by experts. Nevertheless, the experts suggest varieties of processes to guide them; of which some are redundant. The main aim of this study is to propose a single guide process for the creation of DST. A comparative analysis is employed where ten DST models from various experts are analysed. The process can also be implemented in other multimedia materials that used the concept of DST.

  18. Developing a Methodology for Eliciting Subjective Probability Estimates During Expert Evaluations of Safety Interventions: Application for Bayesian Belief Networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wiegmann, Douglas A.a

    2005-01-01

    The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has defined several products that will potentially modify airline and/or ATC operations, enhance aircraft systems, and improve the identification of potential hazardous situations within the National Airspace System (NAS). Consequently, there is a need to develop methods for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the judgments to develop Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN's) that model the potential impact that specific interventions may have. Specifically, the present report summarizes methodologies for improving the elicitation of probability estimates during expert evaluations of AvSP products for use in BBN's. The work involved joint efforts between Professor James Luxhoj from Rutgers University and researchers at the University of Illinois. The Rutgers' project to develop BBN's received funding by NASA entitled "Probabilistic Decision Support for Evaluating Technology Insertion and Assessing Aviation Safety System Risk." The proposed project was funded separately but supported the existing Rutgers' program.

  19. Expert system technology as a data processing tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hennessy, John F.

    1988-01-01

    The expert system technology is focused on as a data processing tool. Several existing applications are analyzed. Their original definition as pure expert systems is contrasted with their current status as integrated systems. The architectural requirements needed to support such a heterogeneous environment are given.

  20. Genuine eye contact elicits self-referential processing.

    PubMed

    Hietanen, Jonne O; Hietanen, Jari K

    2017-03-16

    The effect of eye contact on self-awareness was investigated with implicit measures based on the use of first-person singular pronouns in sentences. The measures were proposed to tap into self-referential processing, that is, information processing associated with self-awareness. In addition, participants filled in a questionnaire measuring explicit self-awareness. In Experiment 1, the stimulus was a video clip showing another person and, in Experiment 2, the stimulus was a live person. In both experiments, participants were divided into two groups and presented with the stimulus person either making eye contact or gazing downward, depending on the group assignment. During the task, the gaze stimulus was presented before each trial of the pronoun-selection task. Eye contact was found to increase the use of first-person pronouns, but only when participants were facing a real person, not when they were looking at a video of a person. No difference in self-reported self-awareness was found between the two gaze direction groups in either experiment. The results indicate that eye contact elicits self-referential processing, but the effect may be stronger, or possibly limited to, live interaction.

  1. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa R.; Kelly, Angelita C.

    1987-01-01

    The Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) is an integral part of the Space Shuttle data network for missions that involve attached scientific payloads. Expert system prototypes were developed to aid in the performance of the quality assurance function of the Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads processed telemetry data. The Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS), two expert systems, were developed to determine their feasibility and potential in the quality assurance of processed telemetry data. The capabilities and performance of these systems are discussed.

  2. ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

    Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

  3. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of five consulting hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The Columbia River basalts underlying the Hanford Site in Washington State are being considered as a possible location for a geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste. To investigate the feasibility of a repository at this site, the hydrologic parameters of the site must be evaluated. Among hydrologic parameters of particular interest are the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior and the vertical-to-horizontal hydraulic conductivity, or anisotropy ratio, of the Cohassett basalt flow interior. The Cohassett basalt flow is the prime candidate horizon for repository studies. Site-specific data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. To obtain credible, auditable, and independently derived estimates of the specified hydrologic parameters, a panel of five nationally recognized hydrologists was assembled. Their expert judgments were quantified during two rounds of Delphi process by means of a probability encoding method developed to estimate the probability distributions of the selected hydrologic variables. The results indicate significant differences of expert opinion for cumulative probabilities of less than 10% and greater than 90%, but relatively close agreement in the middle ranges of values. The principal causes of the diversity of opinion are believed to be the lack of site-specific data and the absence of a single, widely accepted, conceptual or theoretical basis for analyzing these variables.

  4. An expert system for natural language processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hennessy, John F.

    1988-01-01

    A solution to the natural language processing problem that uses a rule based system, written in OPS5, to replace the traditional parsing method is proposed. The advantage to using a rule based system are explored. Specifically, the extensibility of a rule based solution is discussed as well as the value of maintaining rules that function independently. Finally, the power of using semantics to supplement the syntactic analysis of a sentence is considered.

  5. Electrophysiological correlates of aesthetic music processing: comparing experts with laypersons.

    PubMed

    Müller, Mira; Höfel, Lea; Brattico, Elvira; Jacobsen, Thomas

    2009-07-01

    We analyzed the processes of making aesthetic judgments of music, focusing on the differences between music experts and laypersons. Sixteen students of musicology and 16 control subjects (also students) judged the aesthetic value as well as the harmonic correctness of chord sequences. Event-related potential (ERP) data indicate differences between experts and laypersons in making aesthetic judgments at three different processing stages. Additionally, effects of expertise on ERP components that have previously been proven to be sensitive to musical training were replicated. The study thus provides insights into the effects of musical expertise on neural correlates of aesthetic music processing.

  6. Holistic processing of fingerprints by expert forensic examiners.

    PubMed

    Vogelsang, Macgregor D; Palmeri, Thomas J; Busey, Thomas A

    2017-01-01

    Holistic processing is often characterized as a process by which objects are perceived as a whole rather than a compilation of individual features. This mechanism may play an important role in the development of perceptual expertise because it allows for rapid integration across image regions. The present work explores whether holistic processing is present in latent fingerprint examiners, who compare fingerprints collected from crime scenes against a set of standards taken from a suspect. We adapted a composite task widely used in the face recognition and perceptual expertise literatures, in which participants were asked to match only a particular half of a fingerprint with a previous image while ignoring the other half. We tested both experts and novices, using both upright and inverted fingerprints. For upright fingerprints, we found weak evidence for holistic processing, but with no differences between experts and novices with respect to holistic processing. For inverted fingerprints, we found stronger evidence of holistic processing, with weak evidence for differences between experts and novices. These relatively weak holistic processing effects contrast with robust evidence for holistic processing with faces and with objects in other domains of perceptual expertise. The data constrain models of holistic processing by demonstrating that latent fingerprint experts and novices may not substantively differ in terms of the amount of holistic processing and that inverted stimuli actually produced more evidence for holistic processing than upright stimuli. Important differences between the present fingerprint stimuli and those in the literature include the lack of verbal labels for experts and the absence of strong vertical asymmetries, both of which might contribute to stronger holistic processing signatures in other stimulus domains.

  7. Optimization of low gravity materials processing experiments using expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Workman, Gary L.; Choudry, Amar

    1988-01-01

    The use of an expert system for the control of materials processing experiments in a facility such as the Space Station provides a number of attractive features for insuring that certain critical process parameters can be used to optimize the productivity of the materials processing experiments. The proposed approach to implementation of an expert system utilizes a knowledge base of desired process characteristics which will provide the desired results. The knowledge base for each experiment will be created in conjunction with the scientific investigator in charge of the experiment. Improvements to the knowledge base will be expanded to include self learning sessions in ground based experiments in order to teach the expert system how to respond to perturbations in the process and update the knowledge base on what process change should be implemented in order to reach the desired end product. Design considerations using an on-line real time expert system such as PICON is studied. The types of experiments evaluated include several types of solidification experiments which will be performed on the Space Station.

  8. Concurrent Data Elicitation Procedures, Processes, and the Early Stages of L2 Learning: A Critical Overview

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leow, Ronald P.; Grey, Sarah; Marijuan, Silvia; Moorman, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    Given the current methodological interest in eliciting direct data on the cognitive processes L2 learners employ as they interact with L2 data during the early stages of the learning process, this article takes a critical and comparative look at three concurrent data elicitation procedures currently employed in the SLA literature: Think aloud (TA)…

  9. The Expert Group Work Supervision Process: Apperception, Actions, and Interactions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rubel, Deborah; Atieno Okech, Jane E.

    2009-01-01

    The researchers conducted a systematic exploration of the experiences of expert group work supervisors during the supervision process. This article's purpose is to report results that inform intentional practice and illustrate supervision interventions for group work supervisors. Results indicated that participants experienced an interactive…

  10. World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation

    PubMed Central

    Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie H.; Gibb, Herman J.; Torgerson, Paul R.; Kirk, Martyn D.; Angulo, Fred J.; Lake, Robin J.; Speybroeck, Niko; Hoffmann, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    Background The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food. Methods and Findings We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke’s Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific ‘seed’ questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke’s Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the ‘target’ questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts

  11. Expert elicitation as a means to attribute 28 enteric pathogens to foodborne, waterborne, animal contact, and person-to-person transmission routes in Canada.

    PubMed

    Butler, Ainslie J; Thomas, M Kate; Pintar, Katarina D M

    2015-04-01

    Enteric illness contributes to a significant burden of illness in Canada and globally. Understanding its sources is a critical step in identifying and preventing health risks. Expert elicitation is a powerful tool, used previously, to obtain information about enteric illness source attribution where information is difficult or expensive to obtain. Thirty-one experts estimated transmission of 28 pathogens via major transmission routes (foodborne, waterborne, animal contact, person-to-person, and other) at the point of consumption. The elicitation consisted of a (snowball) recruitment phase; administration of a pre-survey to collect background information, an introductory webinar, an elicitation survey, a 1-day discussion, survey readministration, and a feedback exercise, and surveys were administered online. Experts were prompted to quantify changes in contamination at the point of entry into the kitchen versus point of consumption. Estimates were combined via triangular probability distributions, and medians and 90% credible-interval estimates were produced. Transmission was attributed primarily to food for Bacillus cereus, Clostridium perfringens, Cyclospora cayetanensis, Trichinella spp., all three Vibrio spp. categories explored, and Yersinia enterocolitica. Multisource pathogens (e.g., transmitted commonly through both water and food) such as Campylobacter spp., four Escherichia coli categories, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., and Staphylococcus aureus were also estimated as mostly foodborne. Water was the primary pathway for Giardia spp. and Cryptosporidium spp., and person-to-person transmission dominated for six enteric viruses and Shigella spp. Consideration of the point of attribution highlighted the importance of food handling and cross-contamination in the transmission pathway. This study provides source attribution estimates of enteric illness for Canada, considering all possible transmission routes. Further research is necessary to improve our

  12. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, Angelita C.; Basile, Lisa; Ames, Troy; Watson, Janice; Dallam, William

    1987-01-01

    Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) expert system prototypes have been developed to assist in the quality assurance of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payload (ASP) processed telemetry data. SLDPF functions include the capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of mission data to various user facilities. Prototypes for the two SLDPF functional elements, the Spacelab Output Processing System and the Spacelab Input Processing Element, are described. The prototypes have produced beneficial results including an increase in analyst productivity, a decrease in the burden of tedious analyses, the consistent evaluation of data, and the providing of concise historical records.

  13. Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) quality assurance expert systems development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelly, Angelita C.; Basile, Lisa; Ames, Troy; Watson, Janice; Dallam, William

    1987-01-01

    Spacelab Data Processing Facility (SLDPF) expert system prototypes were developed to assist in the quality assurance of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payload (ASP) processed telemetry data. The SLDPF functions include the capturing, quality monitoring, processing, accounting, and forwarding of mission data to various user facilities. Prototypes for the two SLDPF functional elements, the Spacelab Output Processing System and the Spacelab Input Processing Element, are described. The prototypes have produced beneficial results including an increase in analyst productivity, a decrease in the burden of tedious analyses, the consistent evaluation of data, and the providing of concise historical records.

  14. Toward the integration of expert knowledge and instrumental data to control food processes: application to Camembert-type cheese ripening.

    PubMed

    Sicard, M; Perrot, N; Leclercq-Perlat, M-N; Baudrit, C; Corrieu, G

    2011-01-01

    Modeling the cheese ripening process remains a challenge because of its complexity. We still lack the knowledge necessary to understand the interactions that take place at different levels of scale during the process. However, information may be gathered from expert knowledge. Combining this expertise with knowledge extracted from experimental databases may allow a better understanding of the entire ripening process. The aim of this study was to elicit expert knowledge and to check its validity to assess the evolution of organoleptic quality during a dynamic food process: Camembert cheese ripening. Experiments on a pilot scale were carried out at different temperatures and relative humidities to obtain contrasting ripening kinetics. During these experiments, macroscopic evolution was evaluated from an expert's point of view and instrumental measurements were carried out to simultaneously monitor microbiological, physicochemical, and biochemical kinetics. A correlation of 76% was established between the microbiological, physicochemical, and biochemical data and the sensory phases measured according to expert knowledge, highlighting the validity of the experts' measurements. In the future, it is hoped that this expert knowledge may be integrated into food process models to build better decision-aid systems that will make it possible to preserve organoleptic qualities by linking them to other phenomena at the microscopic level.

  15. Neural processes distinguishing elite from expert and novice athletes.

    PubMed

    Callan, Daniel E; Naito, Eiichi

    2014-12-01

    This commentary builds on a companion article in which Kim et al compare brain activation in elite, expert, and novice archers during a simulated target aiming task (Kim et al. 2014. Cogn Behav Neurol. 27:173-182). With the archery study as our starting point, we address 4 neural processes that may be responsible in general for elite athletes' superior performance over experts and novices: neural efficiency, cortical expansion, specialized processes, and internal models. In Kim et al's study, the elite archers' brains showed more activity in the supplementary motor area and the cerebellum than those of the novices and experts, and showed minimal widespread activity, especially in frontal areas involved with executive control. Kim et al's results are consistent with the idea of specialized neural processes that help coordinate motor planning and control. As athletes become more skilled, these processes may mediate the reduction in widespread activity in regions mapping executive control, and may produce a shift toward more automated processing. Kim et al's finding that activity in the cerebellum rose with increasing skill is consistent both with expansion of the finger representational area in the cerebellum and with internal models that simulate how archers manipulate the bow and arrow when aiming. Kim et al prepare the way for testing of neuromodulation techniques to improve athletic performance, refine highly technical job skills, and rehabilitate patients.

  16. Artificial intelligence, expert systems, computer vision, and natural language processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gevarter, W. B.

    1984-01-01

    An overview of artificial intelligence (AI), its core ingredients, and its applications is presented. The knowledge representation, logic, problem solving approaches, languages, and computers pertaining to AI are examined, and the state of the art in AI is reviewed. The use of AI in expert systems, computer vision, natural language processing, speech recognition and understanding, speech synthesis, problem solving, and planning is examined. Basic AI topics, including automation, search-oriented problem solving, knowledge representation, and computational logic, are discussed.

  17. Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens - elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures.

    PubMed

    Boobis, Alan; Flari, Villie; Gosling, John Paul; Hart, Andy; Craig, Peter; Rushton, Lesley; Idahosa-Taylor, Ehi

    2013-07-01

    The general approach to risk assessment of genotoxic carcinogens has been to advise reduction of exposure to "as low as reasonably achievable/practicable" (ALARA/P). However, whilst this remains the preferred risk management option, it does not provide guidance on the urgency or extent of risk management actions necessary. To address this, the "Margin of Exposure" (MOE) approach has been proposed. The MOE is the ratio between the point of departure for carcinogenesis and estimated human exposure. However, interpretation of the MOE requires implicit or explicit consideration of the shape of the dose-response curve at human relevant exposures. In a structured elicitation exercise, we captured expert opinion on available scientific evidence for low dose-response relationships for genotoxic carcinogens. This allowed assessment of: available evidence for the nature of dose-response relationships at human relevant exposures; the generality of judgments about such dose-response relationships; uncertainties affecting judgments on the nature of such dose-response relationships; and whether this last should differ for different classes of genotoxic carcinogens. Elicitation results reflected the variability in experts' views on the form of the dose-response curve for low dose exposure and major sources of uncertainty affecting the assumption of a linear relationship.

  18. Development of the Diagnostic Expert System for Tea Processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoshitomi, Hitoshi; Yamaguchi, Yuichi

    A diagnostic expert system for tea processing which can presume the cause of the defect of the processed tea was developed to contribute to the improvement of tea processing. This system that consists of some programs can be used through the Internet. The inference engine, the core of the system adopts production system which is well used on artificial intelligence, and is coded by Prolog as the artificial intelligence oriented language. At present, 176 rules for inference have been registered on this system. The system will be able to presume better if more rules are added to the system.

  19. A Step-Wise Approach to Elicit Triangular Distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenberg, Marc W.

    2013-01-01

    Adapt/combine known methods to demonstrate an expert judgment elicitation process that: 1.Models expert's inputs as a triangular distribution, 2.Incorporates techniques to account for expert bias and 3.Is structured in a way to help justify expert's inputs. This paper will show one way of "extracting" expert opinion for estimating purposes. Nevertheless, as with most subjective methods, there are many ways to do this.

  20. Rhythm evokes action: early processing of metric deviances in expressive music by experts and laymen revealed by ERP source imaging.

    PubMed

    James, Clara E; Michel, Christoph M; Britz, Juliane; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Hauert, Claude-Alain

    2012-12-01

    To examine how musical expertise tunes the brain to subtle metric anomalies in an ecological musical context, we presented piano compositions ending on standard and deviant cadences (endings) to expert pianists and musical laymen, while high-density EEG was recorded. Temporal expectancies were manipulated by substituting standard "masculine" cadences at metrically strong positions with deviant, metrically unaccented, "feminine" cadences. Experts detected metrically deviant cadences better than laymen. Analyses of event-related potentials demonstrated that an early P3a-like component (~150-300 ms), elicited by musical closure, was significantly enhanced at frontal and parietal electrodes in response to deviant endings in experts, whereas a reduced response to deviance occurred in laymen. Putative neuronal sources contributing to the modulation of this component were localized in a network of brain regions including bilateral supplementary motor areas, middle and posterior cingulate cortex, precuneus, associative visual areas, as well as in the right amygdala and insula. In all these regions, experts showed enhanced responses to metric deviance. Later effects demonstrated enhanced activations within the same brain network, as well as higher processing speed for experts. These results suggest that early brain responses to metric deviance in experts may rely on motor representations mediated by the supplementary motor area and motor cingulate regions, in addition to areas involved in self-referential imagery and relevance detection. Such motor representations could play a role in temporal sensory prediction evolved from musical training and suggests that rhythm evokes action more strongly in highly trained instrumentalists.

  1. Eliciting a Sensemaking Process from Verbal Protocols of Reverse Engineers

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-08-01

    processing loop used in pro- gramming artificial agents to interface with an environment (S. Russell & Norvig , 2003), with the addition of a state to...Human factors in computing sys- tems (CHI93) (pp. 269–276). New York, New York, USA: ACM Press. Russell, S., & Norvig , P. (2003). Artificial Intelligence

  2. Development of an instructional expert system for hole drilling processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Al-Mutawa, Souhaila; Srinivas, Vijay; Moon, Young Bai

    1990-01-01

    An expert system which captures the expertise of workshop technicians in the drilling domain was developed. The expert system is aimed at novice technicians who know how to operate the machines but have not acquired the decision making skills that are gained with experience. This paper describes the domain background and the stages of development of the expert system.

  3. Cellular defense processes regulated by pathogen-elicited receptor signaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Rongcong; Goldsipe, Arthur; Schauer, David B.; Lauffenburger, Douglas A.

    2011-06-01

    Vertebrates are constantly threatened by the invasion of microorganisms and have evolved systems of immunity to eliminate infectious pathogens in the body. Initial sensing of microbial agents is mediated by the recognition of pathogens by means of molecular structures expressed uniquely by microbes of a given type. So-called 'Toll-like receptors' are expressed on host epithelial barrier cells play an essential role in the host defense against microbial pathogens by inducing cell responses (e.g., proliferation, death, cytokine secretion) via activation of intracellular signaling networks. As these networks, comprising multiple interconnecting dynamic pathways, represent highly complex multi-variate "information processing" systems, the signaling activities particularly critical for governing the host cell responses are poorly understood and not easily ascertained by a priori theoretical notions. We have developed over the past half-decade a "data-driven" computational modeling approach, on a 'cue-signal-response' combined experiment/computation paradigm, to elucidate key multi-variate signaling relationships governing the cell responses. In an example presented here, we study how a canonical set of six kinase pathways combine to effect microbial agent-induced apoptotic death of a macrophage cell line. One modeling technique, partial least-squares regression, yielded the following key insights: {a} signal combinations most strongly correlated to apoptotic death are orthogonal to those most strongly correlated with release of inflammatory cytokines; {b} the ratio of two key pathway activities is the most powerful predictor of microbe-induced macrophage apoptotic death; {c} the most influential time-window of this signaling activity ratio is surprisingly fast: less than one hour after microbe stimulation.

  4. Explainable expert systems: A research program in information processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paris, Cecile L.

    1993-01-01

    Our work in Explainable Expert Systems (EES) had two goals: to extend and enhance the range of explanations that expert systems can offer, and to ease their maintenance and evolution. As suggested in our proposal, these goals are complementary because they place similar demands on the underlying architecture of the expert system: they both require the knowledge contained in a system to be explicitly represented, in a high-level declarative language and in a modular fashion. With these two goals in mind, the Explainable Expert Systems (EES) framework was designed to remedy limitations to explainability and evolvability that stem from related fundamental flaws in the underlying architecture of current expert systems.

  5. A Risk Assessment of Antibiotic Pan-Drug-Resistance in the UK: Bayesian Analysis of an Expert Elicitation Study

    PubMed Central

    Carter, Daniel; Charlett, André; Conti, Stefano; Robotham, Julie V.; Johnson, Alan P.; Livermore, David M.; Fowler, Tom; Sharland, Mike; Hopkins, Susan; Woodford, Neil; Burgess, Philip; Dobra, Stephen

    2017-01-01

    To inform the UK antimicrobial resistance strategy, a risk assessment was undertaken of the likelihood, over a five-year time-frame, of the emergence and widespread dissemination of pan-drug-resistant (PDR) Gram-negative bacteria that would pose a major public health threat by compromising effective healthcare delivery. Subsequent impact over five- and 20-year time-frames was assessed in terms of morbidity and mortality attributable to PDR Gram-negative bacteraemia. A Bayesian approach, combining available data with expert prior opinion, was used to determine the probability of the emergence, persistence and spread of PDR bacteria. Overall probability was modelled using Monte Carlo simulation. Estimates of impact were also obtained using Bayesian methods. The estimated probability of widespread occurrence of PDR pathogens within five years was 0.2 (95% credibility interval (CrI): 0.07–0.37). Estimated annual numbers of PDR Gram-negative bacteraemias at five and 20 years were 6800 (95% CrI: 400–58,600) and 22,800 (95% CrI: 1500–160,000), respectively; corresponding estimates of excess deaths were 1900 (95% CrI: 0–23,000) and 6400 (95% CrI: 0–64,000). Over 20 years, cumulative estimates indicate 284,000 (95% CrI: 17,000–1,990,000) cases of PDR Gram-negative bacteraemia, leading to an estimated 79,000 (95% CrI: 0–821,000) deaths. This risk assessment reinforces the need for urgent national and international action to tackle antibiotic resistance. PMID:28272350

  6. A Risk Assessment of Antibiotic Pan-Drug-Resistance in the UK: Bayesian Analysis of an Expert Elicitation Study.

    PubMed

    Carter, Daniel; Charlett, André; Conti, Stefano; Robotham, Julie V; Johnson, Alan P; Livermore, David M; Fowler, Tom; Sharland, Mike; Hopkins, Susan; Woodford, Neil; Burgess, Philip; Dobra, Stephen

    2017-03-07

    To inform the UK antimicrobial resistance strategy, a risk assessment was undertaken of the likelihood, over a five-year time-frame, of the emergence and widespread dissemination of pan-drug-resistant (PDR) Gram-negative bacteria that would pose a major public health threat by compromising effective healthcare delivery. Subsequent impact over five- and 20-year time-frames was assessed in terms of morbidity and mortality attributable to PDR Gram-negative bacteraemia. A Bayesian approach, combining available data with expert prior opinion, was used to determine the probability of the emergence, persistence and spread of PDR bacteria. Overall probability was modelled using Monte Carlo simulation. Estimates of impact were also obtained using Bayesian methods. The estimated probability of widespread occurrence of PDR pathogens within five years was 0.2 (95% credibility interval (CrI): 0.07-0.37). Estimated annual numbers of PDR Gram-negative bacteraemias at five and 20 years were 6800 (95% CrI: 400-58,600) and 22,800 (95% CrI: 1500-160,000), respectively; corresponding estimates of excess deaths were 1900 (95% CrI: 0-23,000) and 6400 (95% CrI: 0-64,000). Over 20 years, cumulative estimates indicate 284,000 (95% CrI: 17,000-1,990,000) cases of PDR Gram-negative bacteraemia, leading to an estimated 79,000 (95% CrI: 0-821,000) deaths. This risk assessment reinforces the need for urgent national and international action to tackle antibiotic resistance.

  7. Prospective Elementary Mathematics Teachers' Thought Processes on a Model Eliciting Activity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eraslan, Ali

    2012-01-01

    Mathematical model and modeling are one of the topics that have been intensively discussed in recent years. The purpose of this study is to examine prospective elementary mathematics teachers' thought processes on a model eliciting activity and reveal difficulties or blockages in the processes. The study includes forty-five seniors taking the…

  8. An expert system for processing sequence homology data

    SciTech Connect

    Sonnhammer, E.L.L.; Durbin, R.

    1994-12-31

    When confronted with the task of finding homology to large numbers of sequences, database searching tools such as Blast and Fasta generate prohibitively large amounts of information. An automatic way of making most of the decisions a trained sequence analyst would make was developed by means of a rule-based expert system combined with an algorithm to avoid non-informative biased residue composition matches. The results found relevant by the system are presented in a very concise and clear way, so that the homology can be assessed with minimum effort. The expert system, HSPcrunch, was implemented to process the output of the programs in the BLAST suite. HSPcrunch embodies rules on detecting distant similarities when pairs of weak matches are consistent with a larger gaped alignment, i.e. when Blast has broken a longer gaped alignment up into smaller ungaped ones. This way, more distant similarities can be detected with no or little side-effects of more spurious matches. The rules for how small the gaps must be to be considered significant have been derived empirically. Currently a set of rules are used that operate on two different scoring levels, one for very weak matches that have very small gaps and one for medium weak matches that have slightly larger gaps. This set of rules proved to be robust for most cases and gives high fidelity separation between real homologies and spurious matches, One of the most important rules for reducing the amount of output is to limit the number of overlapping matches to the same region of the query sequence. This way, a region with many high-scoring matches will not dominate the output and hide weaker but relevant matches to other regions. This is particularly valuable for multi-domain queries.

  9. Business Process Elicitation, Modeling, and Reengineering: Teaching and Learning with Simulated Environments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jeyaraj, Anand

    2010-01-01

    The design of enterprise information systems requires students to master technical skills for elicitation, modeling, and reengineering business processes as well as soft skills for information gathering and communication. These tacit skills and behaviors cannot be effectively taught students but rather experienced and learned by students. This…

  10. Eliciting and Developing Teachers' Conceptions of Random Processes in a Probability and Statistics Course

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Toni M.; Hjalmarson, Margret A.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine prospective mathematics specialists' engagement in an instructional sequence designed to elicit and develop their understandings of random processes. The study was conducted with two different sections of a probability and statistics course for K-8 teachers. Thirty-two teachers participated. Video analyses…

  11. Differences in the Educational Software Evaluation Process for Experts and Novice Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tokmak, Hatice Sancar; Incikabi, Lutfi; Yelken, Tugba Yanpar

    2012-01-01

    This comparative case study investigated the educational software evaluation processes of both experts and novices in conjunction with a software evaluation checklist. Twenty novice elementary education students, divided into groups of five, and three experts participated. Each novice group and the three experts evaluated educational software…

  12. Breadth in Design Problem Scoping: Using Insights from Experts to Investigate Student Processes. Research Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morozov, Andrew; Kilgore, Deborah; Atman, Cynthia

    2007-01-01

    In this study, the authors used two methods for analyzing expert data: verbal protocol analysis (VPA) and narrative analysis. VPA has been effectively used to describe the design processes employed by engineering students, expert designers, and expert-novice comparative research. VPA involves asking participants to "think aloud" while…

  13. Literally experts: expertise and the processing of analogical metaphors in pharmaceutical advertising.

    PubMed

    Delbaere, Marjorie; Smith, Malcolm C

    2014-01-01

    This research examined differences between novices and experts in processing analogical metaphors appearing in prescription drug advertisements. In contrast to previous studies on knowledge transfer, no evidence of the superiority of experts in processing metaphors was found. The results from an experiment suggest that expert consumers were more likely to process a metaphor in an ad literally than novices. Our findings point to a condition in which the expertise effect with processing analogies is not the linear relationship assumed in previous studies.

  14. A Reasoning Architecture for Expert Troubleshooting of Complex Processes

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-09-01

    based expert systems to provide the maintainer with more systematic tools and methods for fault /failure diagnosis . Although significant improvements...system for integrated diagnosis of industrial systems (Saxena et al., 2005). Here, DCBR module depends on MBR to provide probable fault candidates...while the heuristics presented above were used to classify the fault . A healthy gearbox exhibits certain characteristic frequencies. The primary

  15. Process consistency in models: The importance of system signatures, expert knowledge, and process complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hrachowitz, M.; Fovet, O.; Ruiz, L.; Euser, T.; Gharari, S.; Nijzink, R.; Freer, J.; Savenije, H. H. G.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.

    2014-09-01

    Hydrological models frequently suffer from limited predictive power despite adequate calibration performances. This can indicate insufficient representations of the underlying processes. Thus, ways are sought to increase model consistency while satisfying the contrasting priorities of increased model complexity and limited equifinality. In this study, the value of a systematic use of hydrological signatures and expert knowledge for increasing model consistency was tested. It was found that a simple conceptual model, constrained by four calibration objective functions, was able to adequately reproduce the hydrograph in the calibration period. The model, however, could not reproduce a suite of hydrological signatures, indicating a lack of model consistency. Subsequently, testing 11 models, model complexity was increased in a stepwise way and counter-balanced by "prior constraints," inferred from expert knowledge to ensure a model which behaves well with respect to the modeler's perception of the system. We showed that, in spite of unchanged calibration performance, the most complex model setup exhibited increased performance in the independent test period and skill to better reproduce all tested signatures, indicating a better system representation. The results suggest that a model may be inadequate despite good performance with respect to multiple calibration objectives and that increasing model complexity, if counter-balanced by prior constraints, can significantly increase predictive performance of a model and its skill to reproduce hydrological signatures. The results strongly illustrate the need to balance automated model calibration with a more expert-knowledge-driven strategy of constraining models.

  16. Essays on probability elicitation scoring rules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firmino, Paulo Renato A.; dos Santos Neto, Ademir B.

    2012-10-01

    In probability elicitation exercises it has been usual to considerer scoring rules (SRs) to measure the performance of experts when inferring about a given unknown, Θ, for which the true value, θ*, is (or will shortly be) known to the experimenter. Mathematically, SRs quantify the discrepancy between f(θ) (the distribution reflecting the expert's uncertainty about Θ) and d(θ), a zero-one indicator function of the observation θ*. Thus, a remarkable characteristic of SRs is to contrast expert's beliefs with the observation θ*. The present work aims at extending SRs concepts and formulas for the cases where Θ is aleatory, highlighting advantages of goodness-of-fit and entropy-like measures. Conceptually, it is argued that besides of evaluating the personal performance of the expert, SRs may also play a role when comparing the elicitation processes adopted to obtain f(θ). Mathematically, it is proposed to replace d(θ) by g(θ), the distribution that model the randomness of Θ, and do also considerer goodness-of-fit and entropylike metrics, leading to SRs that measure the adherence of f(θ) to g(θ). The implications of this alternative perspective are discussed and illustrated by means of case studies based on the simulation of controlled experiments. The usefulness of the proposed approach for evaluating the performance of experts and elicitation processes is investigated.

  17. Design Expert's Participation in Elementary Students' Collaborative Design Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kangas, Kaiju; Seitamaa-Hakkarainen, Pirita; Hakkarainen, Kai

    2013-01-01

    The main goal of the present study was to provide insights into how disciplinary expertise might be infused into Design and Technology classrooms and how authentic processes based on professional design practices might be constructed. We describe elementary students' collaborative lamp designing process, where the leadership was provided by a…

  18. UPDATING AN EXPERT ELICITATION IN THE LIGHT OF NEW DATA: TEN YEARS OF PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PROPOSED HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

    SciTech Connect

    F.V. Perry; A. Cogbill; R. Kelley

    2005-08-26

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) considers volcanism to be a potentially disruptive class of events that could affect the safety of the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields depends on an adequate understanding of the temporal and spatial pattern of past eruptions. At Yucca Mountain, the hazard is due to an 11 Ma-history of basaltic volcanism with the latest eruptions occurring in three Pleistocene episodes to the west and south of Yucca Mountain. An expert elicitation convened in 1995-1996 by the DOE estimated the mean hazard of volcanic disruption of the repository as slightly greater than 10{sup -8} dike intersections per year with an uncertainty of about two orders of magnitude. Several boreholes in the region have encountered buried basalt in alluvial-filled basins; the youngest of these basalts is dated at 3.8 Ma. The possibility of additional buried basalt centers is indicated by a previous regional aeromagnetic survey conducted by the USGS that detected approximately 20 magnetic anomalies that could represent buried basalt volcanoes. Sensitivity studies indicate that the postulated presence of buried post-Miocene volcanoes to the east of Yucca Mountain could increase the hazard by an order of magnitude, and potentially significantly impact the results of the earlier expert elicitation. Our interpretation of the aeromagnetic data indicates that post-Miocene basalts are not present east of Yucca Mountain, but that magnetic anomalies instead represent faulted and buried Miocene basalt that correlates with nearby surface exposures. This interpretation is being tested by drilling. The possibility of uncharacterized buried volcanoes that could significantly change hazard estimates led DOE to support an update of the expert elicitation in 2004-2006. In support of the expert elicitation data needs, the DOE is sponsoring (1) a new higher-resolution, helicopter-borne aeromagnetic survey

  19. Expert system for testing industrial processes and determining sensor status

    DOEpatents

    Gross, Kenneth C.; Singer, Ralph M.

    1998-01-01

    A method and system for monitoring both an industrial process and a sensor. The method and system include determining a minimum number of sensor pairs needed to test the industrial process as well as the sensor for evaluating the state of operation of both. The technique further includes generating a first and second signal characteristic of an industrial process variable. After obtaining two signals associated with one physical variable, a difference function is obtained by determining the arithmetic difference between the pair of signals over time. A frequency domain transformation is made of the difference function to obtain Fourier modes describing a composite function. A residual function is obtained by subtracting the composite function from the difference function and the residual function (free of nonwhite noise) is analyzed by a statistical probability ratio test.

  20. Expert system for testing industrial processes and determining sensor status

    DOEpatents

    Gross, K.C.; Singer, R.M.

    1998-06-02

    A method and system are disclosed for monitoring both an industrial process and a sensor. The method and system include determining a minimum number of sensor pairs needed to test the industrial process as well as the sensor for evaluating the state of operation of both. The technique further includes generating a first and second signal characteristic of an industrial process variable. After obtaining two signals associated with one physical variable, a difference function is obtained by determining the arithmetic difference between the pair of signals over time. A frequency domain transformation is made of the difference function to obtain Fourier modes describing a composite function. A residual function is obtained by subtracting the composite function from the difference function and the residual function (free of nonwhite noise) is analyzed by a statistical probability ratio test. 24 figs.

  1. Using expert process to combat Clostridium difficile infections.

    PubMed

    Guerreiro, Isabelle; Achonu, Camille; Volkening, Grace; MacFarlane, Sam; McCreight, Liz; Egan, Cathy; Robertson, Jennifer; Garber, Gary

    2016-12-01

    In 2008, Clostridium difficile rates were increasing in Ontario, Canada, and in response, hospitals were mandated by the Ontario Ministry of Health to publicly report their C difficile infection (CDI) rates. In order to assist hospitals which had ongoing CDI outbreaks, a process of an external infection control resource team (ICRT) was introduced. This article describes the function and process of the ICRT, managed by Public Health Ontario, and reviews the lessons learned over the first 5 years of operation. These lessons may assist other hospitals in managing their own infection prevention and control outbreak.

  2. Expert Knowledge, Distinctiveness, and Levels of Processing in Language Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bird, Steve

    2012-01-01

    The foreign language vocabulary learning research literature often attributes strong mnemonic potency to the cognitive processing of meaning when learning words. Routinely cited as support for this idea are experiments by Craik and Tulving (C&T) demonstrating superior recognition and recall of studied words following semantic tasks ("deep"…

  3. Probability encoding of hydrologic parameters for basalt. Elicitation of expert opinions from a panel of three basalt waste isolation project staff hydrologists

    SciTech Connect

    Runchal, A.K.; Merkhofer, M.W.; Olmsted, E.; Davis, J.D.

    1984-11-01

    The present study implemented a probability encoding method to estimate the probability distributions of selected hydrologic variables for the Cohassett basalt flow top and flow interior, and the anisotropy ratio of the interior of the Cohassett basalt flow beneath the Hanford Site. Site-speciic data for these hydrologic parameters are currently inadequate for the purpose of preliminary assessment of candidate repository performance. However, this information is required to complete preliminary performance assessment studies. Rockwell chose a probability encoding method developed by SRI International to generate credible and auditable estimates of the probability distributions of effective porosity and hydraulic conductivity anisotropy. The results indicate significant differences of opinion among the experts. This was especially true of the values of the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow interior for which estimates differ by more than five orders of magnitude. The experts are in greater agreement about the values of effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top; their estimates for this variable are generally within one to two orders of magnitiude of each other. For anisotropy ratio, the expert estimates are generally within two or three orders of magnitude of each other. Based on this study, the Rockwell hydrologists estimate the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top to be generally higher than do the independent experts. For the effective porosity of the Cohassett basalt flow top, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a smaller uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts. On the other hand, for the effective porosity and anisotropy ratio of the Cohassett basalt flow interior, the estimates of the Rockwell hydrologists indicate a larger uncertainty than do the estimates of the independent experts.

  4. Identification and evaluation of scientific uncertainties related to fish and aquatic resources in the Colorado River, Grand Canyon - summary and interpretation of an expert-elicitation questionnaire

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kennedy, Theodore A.

    2013-01-01

    Identifying areas of scientific uncertainty is a critical step in the adaptive management process (Walters, 1986; Runge, Converse, and Lyons, 2011). To identify key areas of scientific uncertainty regarding biologic resources of importance to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) convened Knowledge Assessment Workshops in May and July 2005. One of the products of these workshops was a set of strategic science questions that highlighted key areas of scientific uncertainty. These questions were intended to frame and guide the research and monitoring activities conducted by the GCMRC in subsequent years. Questions were developed collaboratively by scientists and managers. The questions were not all of equal importance or merit—some questions were large scale and others were small scale. Nevertheless, these questions were adopted and have guided the research and monitoring efforts conducted by the GCMRC since 2005. A new round of Knowledge Assessment Workshops was convened by the GCMRC in June and October 2011 and January 2012 to determine whether the research and monitoring activities conducted since 2005 had successfully answered some of the strategic science questions. Oral presentations by scientists highlighting research findings were a centerpiece of all three of the 2011–12 workshops. Each presenter was also asked to provide an answer to the strategic science questions that were specific to the presenter’s research area. One limitation of this approach is that these answers represented the views of the handful of scientists who developed the presentations, and, as such, they did not incorporate other perspectives. Thus, the answers provided by presenters at the Knowledge Assessment Workshops may not have accurately captured the sentiments of the broader group of scientists involved in research and monitoring of the Colorado River in Glen and Grand Canyons. Yet a fundamental ingredient of

  5. Enhanced Temporal but Not Attentional Processing in Expert Tennis Players

    PubMed Central

    Overney, Leila S.; Blanke, Olaf; Herzog, Michael H.

    2008-01-01

    In tennis, as in many disciplines of sport, fine spatio-temporal resolution is required to reach optimal performance. While many studies on tennis have focused on anticipatory skills or decision making, fewer have investigated the underlying visual perception abilities. In this study, we used a battery of seven visual tests that allowed us to assess which kind of visual information processing is performed better by tennis players than other athletes (triathletes) and non-athletes. We found that certain time-related skills, such as speed discrimination, are superior in tennis players compared to non-athletes and triathletes. Such tasks might be used to improve tennis performance in the future. PMID:18545661

  6. A microanalytic study of self-regulated learning processes of expert, non-expert, and at-risk science students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dibenedetto, Maria K.

    2009-12-01

    The present investigation sought to examine differences in the self-regulated learning processes and beliefs of students who vary in their level of expertise in science and to investigate if there are gender differences. Participants were 51 ethnically diverse 11th grade students from three parochial high schools consisting of 34 females and 17 males. Students were grouped as either expert, non-expert, or at-risk based on the school's classification. Students were provided with a short passage on tornados to read and study. The two achievement measures obtained were the Tornado Knowledge Test : ten short-answer questions and the Conceptual Model Test : a question which required the students to draw and describe the three sequential images of tornado development from the textual description of the three phases. A microanalytic methodology was used which consists of asking a series of questions aimed at assessing students' psychological behaviors, feelings, and thoughts in each of Zimmerman's three phases of self-regulation: forethought, performance, and reflection. These questions were asked of the students while they were engaged in learning. Two additional measures were obtained: the Rating Student Self-Regulated Learning Outcomes: A Teacher Scale (RSSRL) and the Self-Efficacy for Self-Regulated Learning (SELF). Analysis of variance, chi square analysis, and post hoc test results showed significant expertise differences, large effect sizes, and positive linear trends on most measures. Regarding gender, there were significant differences on only two measures. Correlational analyses also revealed significant relations among the self-regulatory subprocesses across the three phases. The microanalytic measures were combined across the three phases and entered into a regression formula to predict the students' scores on the Tornado Knowledge Test. These self-regulatory processes explained 77% of the variance in the Tornado Knowledge Test, which was a significant and

  7. Expert Models and Modeling Processes Associated with a Computer-Modeling Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, BaoHui; Liu, Xiufeng; Krajcik, Joseph S.

    2006-01-01

    Holding the premise that the development of expertise is a continuous process, this study concerns expert models and modeling processes associated with a modeling tool called Model-It. Five advanced Ph.D. students in environmental engineering and public health used Model-It to create and test models of water quality. Using "think aloud" technique…

  8. Stronger activation and deactivation in archery experts for differential cognitive strategy in visuospatial working memory processing.

    PubMed

    Seo, Jeehye; Kim, Yang-Tae; Song, Hui-Jin; Lee, Hui Joong; Lee, Jongmin; Jung, Tae-Du; Lee, Gunyoung; Kwon, Eunjin; Kim, Jin Gu; Chang, Yongmin

    2012-04-01

    It is well known that elite athletes have higher performance in perception, planning, and execution in sports activities relative to novices. It remains controversial, however, whether any differences in basic cognitive functions between experts and novices exist. Furthermore, few studies have directly used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate neural activation and deactivation differences between experts and novices while performing visuospatial working memory (WM) tasks. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine possible differences in neural activation and deactivation associated with working memory components in processing visuospatial information between archery experts and novices. To this end, we employed a judgment of line orientation (JLO) task, which has a strong WM component. With regard to brain activation, archery experts displayed higher activation in cortical areas associated with visuospatial attention and working memory, including the middle frontal cortex, supplemental motor area, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex than that of the novices during the performance of the JLO task. With regard to brain deactivation, archery experts exhibited stronger task-related deactivation in cortical areas, such as the paracentral cortex/precuneus and the anterior and posterior cingulate cortex related to the default network, than that of the novices. These results suggest that the archery experts have a strategy that demands greater use of neural correlates associated with visuospatial working memory and attention in addition to greater use of DMN in visuospatial working memory task not directly tied to their domain of expertise.

  9. Knowledge elicitation for an operator assistant system in process control tasks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boy, Guy A.

    1988-01-01

    A knowledge based system (KBS) methodology designed to study human machine interactions and levels of autonomy in allocation of process control tasks is presented. Users are provided with operation manuals to assist them in normal and abnormal situations. Unfortunately, operation manuals usually represent only the functioning logic of the system to be controlled. The user logic is often totally different. A method is focused on which illicits user logic to refine a KBS shell called an Operator Assistant (OA). If the OA is to help the user, it is necessary to know what level of autonomy gives the optimal performance of the overall man-machine system. For example, for diagnoses that must be carried out carefully by both the user and the OA, interactions are frequent, and processing is mostly sequential. Other diagnoses can be automated, in which the case the OA must be able to explain its reasoning in an appropriate level of detail. OA structure was used to design a working KBS called HORSES (Human Orbital Refueling System Expert System). Protocol analysis of pilots interacting with this system reveals that the a-priori analytical knowledge becomes more structured with training and the situation patterns more complex and dynamic. This approach can improve the a-priori understanding of human and automatic reasoning.

  10. Process Consistency in Models: the Importance of System Signatures, Expert Knowledge and Process Complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hrachowitz, Markus; Fovet, Ophelie; Ruiz, Laurent; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Savenije, Hubert

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological models are frequently characterized by what is often considered to be adequate calibration performances. In many cases, however, these models experience a substantial uncertainty and performance decrease in validation periods, thus resulting in poor predictive power. Besides the likely presence of data errors, this observation can point towards wrong or insufficient representations of the underlying processes and their heterogeneity. In other words, right results are generated for the wrong reasons. Thus ways are sought to increase model consistency and to thereby satisfy the contrasting priorities of the need a) to increase model complexity and b) to limit model equifinality. In this study a stepwise model development approach is chosen to test the value of an exhaustive and systematic combined use of hydrological signatures, expert knowledge and readily available, yet anecdotal and rarely exploited, hydrological information for increasing model consistency towards generating the right answer for the right reasons. A simple 3-box, 7 parameter, conceptual HBV-type model, constrained by 4 calibration objective functions was able to adequately reproduce the hydrograph with comparatively high values for the 4 objective functions in the 5-year calibration period. However, closer inspection of the results showed a dramatic decrease of model performance in the 5-year validation period. In addition, assessing the model's skill to reproduce a range of 20 hydrological signatures including, amongst others, the flow duration curve, the autocorrelation function and the rising limb density, showed that it could not adequately reproduce the vast majority of these signatures, indicating a lack of model consistency. Subsequently model complexity was increased in a stepwise way to allow for more process heterogeneity. To limit model equifinality, increase in complexity was counter-balanced by a stepwise application of "realism constraints", inferred from expert

  11. Holistic processing of musical notation: Dissociating failures of selective attention in experts and novices.

    PubMed

    Wong, Yetta Kwailing; Gauthier, Isabel

    2010-12-01

    Holistic processing (i.e., the tendency to process objects as wholes) is associated with face perception and also with expertise individuating novel objects. Surprisingly, recent work also reveals holistic effects in novice observers. It is unclear whether the same mechanisms support holistic effects in experts and in novices. In the present study, we measured holistic processing of music sequences using a selective attention task in participants who vary in music-reading expertise. We found that holistic effects were strategic in novices but were relatively automatic in experts. Correlational analyses revealed that individual holistic effects were predicted by both individual music-reading ability and neural responses for musical notation in the right fusiform face area (rFFA), but in opposite directions for experts and novices, suggesting that holistic effects in the two groups may be of different natures. To characterize expert perception, it is important not only to measure the tendency to process objects as wholes, but also to test whether this effect is dependent on task constraints.

  12. Learning from Experts: Fostering Extended Thinking in the Early Phases of the Design Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haupt, Grietjie

    2015-01-01

    Empirical evidence on the way in which expert designers from different domains cognitively connect their internal processes with external resources is presented in the context of an extended cognition model. The article focuses briefly on the main trends in the extended design cognition theory and in particular on recent trends in information…

  13. Effects of Expert and Non-expert Facilitators on the Small-Group Process and on Student Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Wayne K.; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Comparison of 21 faculty facilitators at the University of Michigan Medical School, with or without content expertise, during small-group teaching sessions in a medical school microbiology course found that students in groups led by content experts had higher levels of satisfaction and higher examination scores. Significant differences in…

  14. Modelling health care processes for eliciting user requirements: a way to link a quality paradigm and clinical information system design.

    PubMed

    Staccini, P; Joubert, M; Quaranta, J F; Fieschi, D; Fieschi, M

    2001-12-01

    Healthcare institutions are looking at ways to increase their efficiency by reducing costs while providing care services with a high level of safety. Thus, hospital information systems have to support quality improvement objectives. The elicitation of the requirements has to meet users' needs in relation to both the quality (efficacy, safety) and the monitoring of all health care activities (traceability). Information analysts need methods to conceptualise clinical information systems that provide actors with individual benefits and guide behavioural changes. A methodology is proposed to elicit and structure users' requirements using a process-oriented analysis, and it is applied to the blood transfusion process. An object-oriented data model of a process has been defined in order to organise the data dictionary. Although some aspects of activity, such as 'where', 'what else', and 'why' are poorly represented by the data model alone, this method of requirement elicitation fits the dynamic of data input for the process to be traced. A hierarchical representation of hospital activities has to be found for the processes to be interrelated, and for their characteristics to be shared, in order to avoid data redundancy and to fit the gathering of data with the provision of care.

  15. Human motion tracking by temporal-spatial local gaussian process experts.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xu; Fu, Yun; Liu, Yuncai

    2011-04-01

    Human pose estimation via motion tracking systems can be considered as a regression problem within a discriminative framework. It is always a challenging task to model the mapping from observation space to state space because of the high-dimensional characteristic in the multimodal conditional distribution. In order to build the mapping, existing techniques usually involve a large set of training samples in the learning process which are limited in their capability to deal with multimodality. We propose, in this work, a novel online sparse Gaussian Process (GP) regression model to recover 3-D human motion in monocular videos. Particularly, we investigate the fact that for a given test input, its output is mainly determined by the training samples potentially residing in its local neighborhood and defined in the unified input-output space. This leads to a local mixture GP experts system composed of different local GP experts, each of which dominates a mapping behavior with the specific covariance function adapting to a local region. To handle the multimodality, we combine both temporal and spatial information therefore to obtain two categories of local experts. The temporal and spatial experts are integrated into a seamless hybrid system, which is automatically self-initialized and robust for visual tracking of nonlinear human motion. Learning and inference are extremely efficient as all the local experts are defined online within very small neighborhoods. Extensive experiments on two real-world databases, HumanEva and PEAR, demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model, which significantly improve the performance of existing models.

  16. Application of machine learning and expert systems to Statistical Process Control (SPC) chart interpretation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shewhart, Mark

    1991-01-01

    Statistical Process Control (SPC) charts are one of several tools used in quality control. Other tools include flow charts, histograms, cause and effect diagrams, check sheets, Pareto diagrams, graphs, and scatter diagrams. A control chart is simply a graph which indicates process variation over time. The purpose of drawing a control chart is to detect any changes in the process signalled by abnormal points or patterns on the graph. The Artificial Intelligence Support Center (AISC) of the Acquisition Logistics Division has developed a hybrid machine learning expert system prototype which automates the process of constructing and interpreting control charts.

  17. Expert knowledge integration in the data mining process with application to cardiovascular risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Tavares, M; Paredes, S; Rocha, T; Carvalho, P; Ramos, J; Mendes, D; Henriques, J; Morais, J

    2015-01-01

    The data mining process, when applied to clinical databases, suffers from critical data problems, from noisy acquisitions to missing or incomplete data points. Expert knowledge, in the form of practitioners' experience and clinical guidelines, is already used to manually correct some of these problems, while enhancing expert's confidence in such systems. In this work, we propose the Knowledge-Biased Tree (KB3), a knowledge biased decision tree inducer that is able to exploit IF THEN rules to guide the tree inducing process. The KB3 approach was tested against its unbiased counterpart, the C5.0 algorithm in the cardiovascular risk assessment task. Using a clinical dataset provided by the hospital of Sta Cruz (Lisbon, Portugal) the performance of the proposed algorithm is compared against the unbiased C5.0 and the state of the art risk score used in clinical practice (GRACE risk score).

  18. Early neuronal responses in right limbic structures mediate harmony incongruity processing in musical experts.

    PubMed

    James, Clara E; Britz, Juliane; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Hauert, Claude-Alain; Michel, Christoph M

    2008-10-01

    In western tonal music, musical phrases end with an explicit harmonic consequent which is highly expected. As such expectation is a consequence of musical background, cerebral processing of incongruities of musical grammar might be a function of expertise. We hypothesized that a subtle incongruity of standard closure should evoke a profound and rapid reaction in an expert's brain. If such a reaction is due to neuroplasticity as a consequence of musical training, it should be correlated with distinctive activations in sensory, motor and/or cognitive function related brain areas in response to the incongruent closure. Using event related potential (ERP) source imaging, we determined the temporal dynamics of neuronal activity in highly trained pianists and musical laymen in response to syntactic harmonic incongruities in expressive music, which were easily detected by the experts but not by the laymen. Our results revealed that closure incongruity evokes a selective early response in musical experts, characterized by a strong, right lateralized negative ERP component. Statistical source analysis could demonstrate putative contribution to the generation of this component in right temporal-limbic areas, encompassing hippocampal complex and amygdala, and in right insula. Its early onset (approximately 200 ms) preceded responses in frontal areas that may reflect more conscious processing. These results go beyond previous work demonstrating that musical training can change activity of sensory and motor areas during musical or audio-motor tasks, and suggest that functional plasticity in right medial-temporal structures and insula also modulates processing of subtle harmonic incongruities.

  19. A new modeling approach for quantifying expert opinion in the drug discovery process.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Ariel; Milanzi, Elasma; Molenberghs, Geert; Buyck, Christophe; Bijnens, Luc

    2015-04-30

    Expert opinion plays an important role when choosing clusters of chemical compounds for further investigation. Often, the process by which the clusters are assigned to the experts for evaluation, the so-called selection process, and the qualitative ratings given by the experts to the clusters (chosen/not chosen) need to be jointly modeled to avoid bias. This approach is referred to as the joint modeling approach. However, misspecifying the selection model may impact the estimation and inferences on parameters in the rating model, which are of most scientific interest. We propose to incorporate the selection process into the analysis by adding a new set of random effects to the rating model and, in this way, avoid the need to model it parametrically. This approach is referred to as the combined model approach. Through simulations, the performance of the combined and joint models was compared in terms of bias and confidence interval coverage. The estimates from the combined model were nearly unbiased, and the derived confidence intervals had coverage probability around 95% in all scenarios considered. In contrast, the estimates from the joint model were severely biased under some form of misspecification of the selection model, and fitting the model was often numerically challenging. The results show that the combined model may offer a safer alternative on which to base inferences when there are doubts about the validity of the selection model. Importantly, thanks to its greater numerical stability, the combined model may outperform the joint model even when the latter is correctly specified.

  20. An Image Retrieval and Processing Expert System for the World Wide Web

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodriguez, Ricardo; Rondon, Angelica; Bruno, Maria I.; Vasquez, Ramon

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents a system that is being developed in the Laboratory of Applied Remote Sensing and Image Processing at the University of P.R. at Mayaguez. It describes the components that constitute its architecture. The main elements are: a Data Warehouse, an Image Processing Engine, and an Expert System. Together, they provide a complete solution to researchers from different fields that make use of images in their investigations. Also, since it is available to the World Wide Web, it provides remote access and processing of images.

  1. Developing expertise in gynecologic surgery: reflective perspectives of international experts on learning environments and processes.

    PubMed

    Hardré, Patricia L; Nihira, Mikio; LeClaire, Edgar L

    2017-01-01

    Research in medical education does not provide a clear understanding of how professional expertise develops among surgeons and what experiential factors contribute to that development. To address this gap, the researchers interviewed 16 international experts in female pelvic medicine and reconstructive surgery to assess their reflective perceptions of what specific opportunities and experiences initiated and supported their development toward expertise in their field. Characteristics and influences explaining the speed and quality of expertise development were sorted into the following themes: the dynamic process of expertise development, internal and personal characteristics, general aptitudes and preparatory skills, role modeling and interpersonal influences, opportunities to learn and practice, and roles and reference points. Across the narratives and perspectives of these expert surgeons, both individual characteristics and choices, and contextual activities and opportunities were necessary and important. Experiences with greatest impact on quality of expertise development included those provided by the environment and mentors, as well as those sought out by learners themselves, to elaborate and supplement existing opportunities. The ideal combination across experts was interaction and integration of individual characteristics with experiential opportunities. Grounded in theory and research in expertise development, these findings can support improvement of medical education, both for individual mentors and strategic program development. As surgery evolves at a continuously increasing pace, effective mentoring of promising surgical trainees will be critical to ensure that future generations of gynecologic surgeons will remain excellent. Effective, efficient surgical expertise development requires identifying trainees with the appropriate characteristics and providing them with the best development opportunities.

  2. How experts are chosen to inform public policy: can the process be improved?

    PubMed

    Rowe, Sylvia; Alexander, Nick; Weaver, Connie M; Dwyer, Johanna T; Drew, Christa; Applebaum, Rhona S; Atkinson, Stephanie; Clydesdale, Fergus M; Hentges, Eric; Higley, Nancy A; Westring, M Elizabeth

    2013-10-01

    The ever-increasing complexity of the food supply has magnified the importance of ongoing research into nutrition and food safety issues that have significant impact on public health. At the same time, ethical questions have been raised regarding conflict of interest, making it more challenging to form the expert panels that advise government agencies and public health officials in formulating nutrition and food safety policy. Primarily due to the growing complexity of the interactions among government, industry, and academic research institutions, increasingly stringent conflict-of-interest policies may have the effect of barring the most experienced and knowledgeable nutrition and food scientists from contributing their expertise on the panels informing public policy. This paper explores the issue in some depth, proposing a set of principles for determining considerations for service on expert advisory committees. Although the issues around scientific policy counsel and the selection of advisory panels clearly have global applicability, the context for their development had a US and Canadian focus in this work. The authors also call for a broader discussion in all sectors of the research community as to whether and how the process of empaneling food science and nutrition experts might be improved.

  3. Developing expertise in gynecologic surgery: reflective perspectives of international experts on learning environments and processes

    PubMed Central

    Hardré, Patricia L; Nihira, Mikio; LeClaire, Edgar L

    2017-01-01

    Research in medical education does not provide a clear understanding of how professional expertise develops among surgeons and what experiential factors contribute to that development. To address this gap, the researchers interviewed 16 international experts in female pelvic medicine and reconstructive surgery to assess their reflective perceptions of what specific opportunities and experiences initiated and supported their development toward expertise in their field. Characteristics and influences explaining the speed and quality of expertise development were sorted into the following themes: the dynamic process of expertise development, internal and personal characteristics, general aptitudes and preparatory skills, role modeling and interpersonal influences, opportunities to learn and practice, and roles and reference points. Across the narratives and perspectives of these expert surgeons, both individual characteristics and choices, and contextual activities and opportunities were necessary and important. Experiences with greatest impact on quality of expertise development included those provided by the environment and mentors, as well as those sought out by learners themselves, to elaborate and supplement existing opportunities. The ideal combination across experts was interaction and integration of individual characteristics with experiential opportunities. Grounded in theory and research in expertise development, these findings can support improvement of medical education, both for individual mentors and strategic program development. As surgery evolves at a continuously increasing pace, effective mentoring of promising surgical trainees will be critical to ensure that future generations of gynecologic surgeons will remain excellent. Effective, efficient surgical expertise development requires identifying trainees with the appropriate characteristics and providing them with the best development opportunities. PMID:28123313

  4. Psychology of developing and designing expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, B.; MacGregor, D.

    1986-01-01

    This paper discusses psychological problems relevant to developing and designing expert systems. With respect to the former, the psychological literature suggests that several cognitive biases may affect the elicitation of a valid knowledge base from the expert. The literature also suggests that common expert system inference engines may be quite inconsistent with reasoning heuristics employed by experts. With respect to expert system user interfaces, care should be taken when eliciting uncertainty estimates from users, presenting system conclusions, and ordering questions.

  5. The use of concept maps during knowledge elicitation in ontology development processes – the nutrigenomics use case

    PubMed Central

    Castro, Alexander Garcia; Rocca-Serra, Philippe; Stevens, Robert; Taylor, Chris; Nashar, Karim; Ragan, Mark A; Sansone, Susanna-Assunta

    2006-01-01

    Background Incorporation of ontologies into annotations has enabled 'semantic integration' of complex data, making explicit the knowledge within a certain field. One of the major bottlenecks in developing bio-ontologies is the lack of a unified methodology. Different methodologies have been proposed for different scenarios, but there is no agreed-upon standard methodology for building ontologies. The involvement of geographically distributed domain experts, the need for domain experts to lead the design process, the application of the ontologies and the life cycles of bio-ontologies are amongst the features not considered by previously proposed methodologies. Results Here, we present a methodology for developing ontologies within the biological domain. We describe our scenario, competency questions, results and milestones for each methodological stage. We introduce the use of concept maps during knowledge acquisition phases as a feasible transition between domain expert and knowledge engineer. Conclusion The contributions of this paper are the thorough description of the steps we suggest when building an ontology, example use of concept maps, consideration of applicability to the development of lower-level ontologies and application to decentralised environments. We have found that within our scenario conceptual maps played an important role in the development process. PMID:16725019

  6. Processes in construction of failure management expert systems from device design information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malin, Jane T.; Lance, Nick

    1987-01-01

    This paper analyzes the tasks and problem solving methods used by an engineer in constructing a failure management expert system from design information about the device to te diagnosed. An expert test engineer developed a trouble-shooting expert system based on device design information and experience with similar devices, rather than on specific expert knowledge gained from operating the device or troubleshooting its failures. The construction of the expert system was intensively observed and analyzed. This paper characterizes the knowledge, tasks, methods, and design decisions involved in constructing this type of expert system, and makes recommendations concerning tools for aiding and automating construction of such systems.

  7. Discovering the knowledge creation process of an expert group in women-friendly policy: The policy case of Seoul City.

    PubMed

    Oh, Young Sam; Nam, SungHee; Kim, Yuna

    2016-01-01

    This research explores how expert knowledge is created in the process of women-friendly policy making, based on actor network theory (ANT). To address this purpose, this study uses the "Women's Happiness in the City of Seoul" policy initiated by the local government of Seoul as one example of policy development. Research findings demonstrate that knowledge creation in expert groups followed the four stages suggested by ANT. In addition, this study found that various types of knowledge emerged from individual experts. This research elucidates the process of knowledge creation and its meanings for women-friendly policy.

  8. Development of expert systems for the design of a hot-forging process based on material workability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ravi, R.; Prasad, Y. V. R. K.; Sarma, V. V. S.

    2003-12-01

    Most of the time (and cost) involved in planning hot forging process is related to activities strongly dependent on human expertise, intuition, and creativity, and also to iterative procedure involving extensive experimental work. In this paper, the development of an expert system for forging process design, which emphasizes materials’ workability, is discussed. Details of the forging process design expert system, its basic modules, design and implementation details, and deliverables are explained. The system uses the vast database available on the hot workability of more than 200 technologically important materials and the knowledge acquired from a materials’ expert. The C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) has been adopted to develop this expert system. The expert system can address three types of functions, namely, forging process design, materials information system, and forging defect analysis. The expert system will aid and prompt a novice engineer in designing a forging process by providing accurate information of the process parameters, lubricants, type of machine, die material, and type of process (isothermal versus non-isothermal) for a given material with a known specification or code and prior history.

  9. Method for distributed agent-based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior

    DOEpatents

    Ivezic, Nenad; Potok, Thomas E.

    2004-11-30

    A method for distributed agent based non-expert simulation of manufacturing process behavior on a single-processor computer comprises the steps of: object modeling a manufacturing technique having a plurality of processes; associating a distributed agent with each the process; and, programming each the agent to respond to discrete events corresponding to the manufacturing technique, wherein each discrete event triggers a programmed response. The method can further comprise the step of transmitting the discrete events to each agent in a message loop. In addition, the programming step comprises the step of conditioning each agent to respond to a discrete event selected from the group consisting of a clock tick message, a resources received message, and a request for output production message.

  10. Deep Levels of Processing Elicit a Distinctiveness Heuristic: Evidence from the Criterial Recollection Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gallo, David A.; Meadow, Nathaniel G.; Johnson, Elizabeth L.; Foster, Katherine T.

    2008-01-01

    Thinking about the meaning of studied words (deep processing) enhances memory on typical recognition tests, relative to focusing on perceptual features (shallow processing). One explanation for this levels-of-processing effect is that deep processing leads to the encoding of more distinctive representations (i.e., more unique semantic or…

  11. Studying the Accuracy of Software Process Elicitation: The User Articulated Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crabtree, Carlton A.

    2010-01-01

    Process models are often the basis for demonstrating improvement and compliance in software engineering organizations. A descriptive model is a type of process model describing the human activities in software development that actually occur. The purpose of a descriptive model is to provide a documented baseline for further process improvement…

  12. Deduction Electrified: ERPs Elicited by the Processing of Words in Conditional Arguments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonnefond, Mathilde; Van der Henst, Jean-Baptiste

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the ERP components associated with the processing of words that are critical to generating and rejecting deductive conditional Modus Ponens arguments ("If P then Q; P//"Therefore, "Q"). The generation of a logical inference is investigated by placing a verb in the minor premise that matches the one used in the antecedent of…

  13. The NERV Methodology: Non-Functional Requirements Elicitation, Reasoning and Validation in Agile Processes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Domah, Darshan

    2013-01-01

    Agile software development has become very popular around the world in recent years, with methods such as Scrum and Extreme Programming (XP). Literature suggests that functionality is the primary focus in Agile processes while non-functional requirements (NFR) are either ignored or ill-defined. However, for software to be of good quality both…

  14. Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

    DOEpatents

    Reifman, J.; Wei, T.Y.C.

    1995-08-15

    A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis of an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach. 9 figs.

  15. Combined expert system/neural networks method for process fault diagnosis

    DOEpatents

    Reifman, Jaques; Wei, Thomas Y. C.

    1995-01-01

    A two-level hierarchical approach for process fault diagnosis is an operating system employs a function-oriented approach at a first level and a component characteristic-oriented approach at a second level, where the decision-making procedure is structured in order of decreasing intelligence with increasing precision. At the first level, the diagnostic method is general and has knowledge of the overall process including a wide variety of plant transients and the functional behavior of the process components. An expert system classifies malfunctions by function to narrow the diagnostic focus to a particular set of possible faulty components that could be responsible for the detected functional misbehavior of the operating system. At the second level, the diagnostic method limits its scope to component malfunctions, using more detailed knowledge of component characteristics. Trained artificial neural networks are used to further narrow the diagnosis and to uniquely identify the faulty component by classifying the abnormal condition data as a failure of one of the hypothesized components through component characteristics. Once an anomaly is detected, the hierarchical structure is used to successively narrow the diagnostic focus from a function misbehavior, i.e., a function oriented approach, until the fault can be determined, i.e., a component characteristic-oriented approach.

  16. Size determines whether specialized expert processes are engaged for recognition of faces.

    PubMed

    Yang, Nan; Shafai, Fakhri; Oruc, Ipek

    2014-07-22

    Many influential models of face recognition postulate specialized expert processes that are engaged when viewing upright, own-race faces, as opposed to a general-purpose recognition route used for nonface objects and inverted or other-race faces. In contrast, others have argued that empirical differences do not stem from qualitatively distinct processing. We offer a potential resolution to this ongoing controversy. We hypothesize that faces engage specialized processes at large sizes only. To test this, we measured recognition efficiencies for a wide range of sizes. Upright face recognition efficiency increased with size. This was not due to better visibility of basic image features at large sizes. We ensured this by calculating efficiency relative to a specialized ideal observer unique to each individual that incorporated size-related changes in visibility and by measuring inverted efficiencies across the same range of face sizes. Inverted face recognition efficiencies did not change with size. A qualitative face inversion effect, defined as the ratio of relative upright and inverted efficiencies, showed a complete lack of inversion effects for small sizes up to 6°. In contrast, significant face inversion effects were found for all larger sizes. Size effects may stem from predominance of larger faces in the overall exposure to faces, which occur at closer viewing distances typical of social interaction. Our results offer a potential explanation for the contradictory findings in the literature regarding the special status of faces.

  17. Pre-Service Teachers' Modelling Processes through Engagement with Model Eliciting Activities with a Technological Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Daher, Wajeeh M.; Shahbari, Juhaina Awawdeh

    2015-01-01

    Engaging mathematics students with modelling activities helps them learn mathematics meaningfully. This engagement, in the case of model eliciting activities, helps the students elicit mathematical models by interpreting real-world situation in mathematical ways. This is especially true when the students utilize technology to build the models.…

  18. General strategy for understanding intracellular molecular interaction cascades that elicit stimulus-invoked biological processes

    PubMed Central

    OKAYAMA, Hiroto

    2016-01-01

    Recent advances in biology have been driven by chemical analyses of the substances that form living organisms. Such analyses are extremely powerful as way of learning about the static properties of molecular species, but relatively powerless for understanding their dynamic behaviors even though this dynamism is essential for organisms to perform various biological processes that perpetuate their lives. Thus, attempts to identify individual species and molecular interaction cascades that drive specific responses to external stimuli or environmental changes often fail. Here I propose a general strategy to address this problem. The strategy comprises two key elements: functional manipulation of a given protein molecule coupled with close monitoring of its biological effect, and construction of a knowledge base tailored for conjecture-driven experimentation. The original idea for this strategy co-evolved with and greatly helped a series of studies we recently performed to discover critical signal cascades and cellular components that regulate the cell cycle transition from G1 to S phase. PMID:27725475

  19. Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) quality assurance (QA)/data accounting (DA) expert systems - Transition from prototypes to operational systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa

    1988-01-01

    The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historical records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

  20. Spacelab data processing facility (SLDPF) Quality Assurance (QA)/Data Accounting (DA) expert systems: Transition from prototypes to operational systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basile, Lisa

    1988-01-01

    The SLDPF is responsible for the capture, quality monitoring processing, accounting, and shipment of Spacelab and/or Attached Shuttle Payloads (ASP) telemetry data to various user facilities. Expert systems will aid in the performance of the quality assurance and data accounting functions of the two SLDPF functional elements: the Spacelab Input Processing System (SIPS) and the Spacelab Output Processing System (SOPS). Prototypes were developed for each as independent efforts. The SIPS Knowledge System Prototype (KSP) used the commercial shell OPS5+ on an IBM PC/AT; the SOPS Expert System Prototype used the expert system shell CLIPS implemented on a Macintosh personal computer. Both prototypes emulate the duties of the respective QA/DA analysts based upon analyst input and predetermined mission criteria parameters, and recommended instructions and decisions governing the reprocessing, release, or holding for further analysis of data. These prototypes demonstrated feasibility and high potential for operational systems. Increase in productivity, decrease of tedium, consistency, concise historial records, and a training tool for new analyses were the principal advantages. An operational configuration, taking advantage of the SLDPF network capabilities, is under development with the expert systems being installed on SUN workstations. This new configuration in conjunction with the potential of the expert systems will enhance the efficiency, in both time and quality, of the SLDPF's release of Spacelab/AST data products.

  1. Integrated processing and analysis of hydrological data - not only for experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalicz, P.; Gribovszki, Z.

    2012-04-01

    The advent of the digital data logging results huge amount of hydrological time series from wide variety of hydrological phenomenon and water quality indicators. There are different sampling frequencies, irregular time steps, hand measured control data which are necessary treat in the same database. Some processes (e.g. the concentration of surface water) in small catchments and urban areas change quickly thus at this case for a rigorous study it is necessary to apply high frequency data sampling. Sometimes there is an error and the equidistant times series is broken. The error produced gap in the time series forms an obstacle for some type of calculations. There are many proprietary softwares process these data and gives solutions for the exercises. It can be found also open source solutions. Some years ago the open source R was chosen for analyzing data, which are measured in the Hidegvíz Valley experimental catchment. This system is an excellent environment to organize and visualize hydrological time series. The contributing package called zoo has good abilities to work with different temporal resolutions. There are also many sophisticated statistical functions (e.g. auto- and cross-correlation functions, spectral analysis, filters, smoothing algorithms, etc.). During the years some functions was developed for data import, semi-automatic data processing, visualizations and analyses. In the last year in the umbrella of a project brings up a demand for visualize time series from non-R-experts. An easy-to-use graphical user interface was developed to solve this problem instead of cumbersome import/export processes or introduction to R course. This integrated utility uses the integrated Tcl/Tk package and gives possibilities to mouse driven visualization.

  2. The Evaluation of the Cognitive Learning Process of the Renewed Bloom Taxonomy Using a Web Based Expert System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goksu, Idris

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to develop the Web Based Expert System (WBES) which provides analyses and reports based on the cognitive processes of Renewed Bloom Taxonomy (RBT), and to put forward the impact of the supportive education provided in line with these reports, on the academic achievement and mastery learning state of the students. The study…

  3. An expert panel process to evaluate habitat restoration actions in the Columbia River estuary.

    PubMed

    Krueger, Kirk L; Bottom, Daniel L; Hood, W Gregory; Johnson, Gary E; Jones, Kim K; Thom, Ronald M

    2017-03-01

    We describe a process for evaluating proposed ecosystem restoration projects intended to improve survival of juvenile salmon in the Columbia River estuary (CRE). Changes in the Columbia River basin (northwestern USA), including hydropower development, have contributed to the listing of 13 salmon stocks as endangered or threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Habitat restoration in the CRE, from Bonneville Dam to the ocean, is part of a basin-wide, legally mandated effort to mitigate federal hydropower impacts on salmon survival. An Expert Regional Technical Group (ERTG) was established in 2009 to improve and implement a process for assessing and assigning "survival benefit units" (SBUs) to restoration actions. The SBU concept assumes site-specific restoration projects will increase juvenile salmon survival during migration through the 234 km CRE. Assigned SBUs are used to inform selection of restoration projects and gauge mitigation progress. The ERTG standardized the SBU assessment process to improve its scientific integrity, repeatability, and transparency. In lieu of experimental data to quantify the survival benefits of individual restoration actions, the ERTG adopted a conceptual model composed of three assessment criteria-certainty of success, fish opportunity improvements, and habitat capacity improvements-to evaluate restoration projects. Based on these criteria, an algorithm assigned SBUs by integrating potential fish density as an indicator of salmon performance. Between 2009 and 2014, the ERTG assessed SBUs for 55 proposed projects involving a total of 181 restoration actions located across 8 of 9 reaches of the CRE, largely relying on information provided in a project template based on the conceptual model, presentations, discussions with project sponsors, and site visits. Most projects restored tidal inundation to emergent wetlands, improved riparian function, and removed invasive vegetation. The scientific relationship of geomorphic and

  4. NLRC5 elicits antitumor immunity by enhancing processing and presentation of tumor antigens to CD8+ T lymphocytes

    PubMed Central

    Rodriguez, Galaxia M.; Bobbala, Diwakar; Serrano, Daniel; Mayhue, Marian; Champagne, Audrey; Saucier, Caroline; Steimle, Viktor; Kufer, Thomas A.; Menendez, Alfredo; Ramanathan, Sheela; Ilangumaran, Subburaj

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Cancers can escape immunesurveillance by diminishing the expression of MHC class-I molecules (MHC-I) and components of the antigen-processing machinery (APM). Developing new approaches to reverse these defects could boost the efforts to restore antitumor immunity. Recent studies have shown that the expression of MHC-I and antigen-processing molecules is transcriptionally regulated by NOD-like receptor CARD domain containing 5 (NLRC5). To investigate whether NLRC5 could be used to improve tumor immunogenicity, we established stable lines of B16-F10 melanoma cells expressing NLRC5 (B16-5), the T cell co-stimulatory molecule CD80 (B16-CD80) or both (B16-5/80). Cells harboring NLRC5 constitutively expressed MHC-I and LMP2, LMP7 and TAP1 genes of the APM. The B16-5 cells efficiently presented the melanoma antigenic peptide gp10025–33 to Pmel-1 TCR transgenic CD8+ T cells and induced their proliferation. In the presence of CD80, B16-5 cells stimulated Pmel-1 cells even without the addition of gp100 peptide, indicating that NLRC5 facilitated the processing and presentation of endogenous tumor antigen. Upon subcutaneous implantation, B16-5 cells showed markedly reduced tumor growth in C57BL/6 hosts but not in immunodeficient hosts, indicating that the NLRC5-expressing tumor cells elicited antitumor immunity. Following intravenous injection, B16-5 and B16-5/80 cells formed fewer lung tumor foci compared to control cells. In mice depleted of CD8+ T cells, B16-5 cells formed large subcutaneous and lung tumors. Finally, immunization with irradiated B16-5 cells conferred protection against challenge by parental B16 cells. Collectively, our findings indicate that NLRC5 could be exploited to restore tumor immunogenicity and to stimulate protective antitumor immunity. PMID:27471621

  5. Relationships between the Process Standards: Process Elicited through Letter Writing between Preservice Teachers and High School Mathematics Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kosko, Karl Wesley; Norton, Anderson

    2012-01-01

    The current body of literature suggests an interactive relationship between several of the process standards advocated by National Council of Teachers of Mathematics. Verbal and written mathematical communication has often been described as an alternative to typical mathematical representations (e.g., charts and graphs). Therefore, the…

  6. Architecture For The Optimization Of A Machining Process In Real Time Through Rule-Based Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serrano, Rafael; González, Luis Carlos; Martín, Francisco Jesús

    2009-11-01

    Under the project SENSOR-IA which has had financial funding from the Order of Incentives to the Regional Technology Centers of the Counsil of Innovation, Science and Enterprise of Andalusia, an architecture for the optimization of a machining process in real time through rule-based expert system has been developed. The architecture consists of an acquisition system and sensor data processing engine (SATD) from an expert system (SE) rule-based which communicates with the SATD. The SE has been designed as an inference engine with an algorithm for effective action, using a modus ponens rule model of goal-oriented rules.The pilot test demonstrated that it is possible to govern in real time the machining process based on rules contained in a SE. The tests have been done with approximated rules. Future work includes an exhaustive collection of data with different tool materials and geometries in a database to extract more precise rules.

  7. Winning the game: brain processes in expert, young elite and amateur table tennis players

    PubMed Central

    Wolf, Sebastian; Brölz, Ellen; Scholz, David; Ramos-Murguialday, Ander; Keune, Philipp M.; Hautzinger, Martin; Birbaumer, Niels; Strehl, Ute

    2014-01-01

    This study tested two hypotheses: (1) compared with amateurs and young elite, expert table tennis players are characterized by enhanced cortical activation in the motor and fronto-parietal cortex during motor imagery in response to table tennis videos; (2) in elite athletes, world rank points are associated with stronger cortical activation. To this aim, electroencephalographic data were recorded in 14 expert, 15 amateur and 15 young elite right-handed table tennis players. All subjects watched videos of a serve and imagined themselves responding with a specific table tennis stroke. With reference to a baseline period, power decrease/increase of the sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) during the pretask- and task period indexed the cortical activation/deactivation (event-related desynchronization/synchronization, ERD/ERS). Regarding hypothesis (1), 8–10 Hz SMR ERD was stronger in elite athletes than in amateurs with an intermediate ERD in young elite athletes in the motor cortex. Regarding hypothesis (2), there was no correlation between ERD/ERS in the motor cortex and world rank points in elite experts, but a weaker ERD in the fronto-parietal cortex was associated with higher world rank points. These results suggest that motor skill in table tennis is associated with focused excitability of the motor cortex during reaction, movement planning and execution with high attentional demands. Among elite experts, less activation of the fronto-parietal attention network may be necessary to become a world champion. PMID:25386126

  8. Documenting the Use of Expert Scientific Reasoning Processes by High School Physics Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephens, A. Lynn; Clement, John J.

    2010-01-01

    We describe a methodology for identifying evidence for the use of three types of scientific reasoning. In two case studies of high school physics classes, we used this methodology to identify multiple instances of students using analogies, extreme cases, and Gedanken experiments. Previous case studies of expert scientists have indicated that these…

  9. The Role of Inductive Expert Systems Generators in the Social Science Research Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garson, G. David

    Most of what may be construed as political science has always proceeded through induction, which depends heavily on the insight, intuition, and personal brilliance of the particular author. Another approach that is closely associated with the early induction through examples is the expert system. The outcomes of this approach are not measures of…

  10. Online Search + Logic Programming = Subject Bibliography: An Expert Systems Approach to Bibliographic Processing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lirov, Yuval; Lirov, Viktor

    1990-01-01

    Describes the development of a knowledge-based system, REX, that creates subject bibliographies by downloading reference material from an online bibliographic service. The expert systems architecture is explained, use of Prolog is described, and creation of the subject knowledge base and an author index are discussed. (10 references) (LRW)

  11. Transferring knowledge during dyadic interaction: The role of the expert in the learning process.

    PubMed

    Mireles, Edwin Johnatan Avila; De Santis, Dalia; Morasso, Pietro; Zenzeri, Jacopo

    2016-08-01

    Physical interaction between man and machines is increasing the interest of the research as well as the industrial community. It is known that physical coupling between active persons can be beneficial and increase the performance of the dyad compared to an individual. However, the factors that may result in performance benefits are still poorly understood. The aim of this work is to investigate how the different initial skill levels of the interacting partners influence the learning of a stabilization task. Twelve subjects, divided in two groups, trained in couples in a joint stabilization task. In the first group the couples were composed of two naive, while in the second a naive was trained together with an expert. Results show that training with an expert results in the greatest performance in the joint task. However, this benefit is not transferred to the individual when performing the same task bimanually.

  12. Developmental validation of the DNAscan™ Rapid DNA Analysis™ instrument and expert system for reference sample processing.

    PubMed

    Della Manna, Angelo; Nye, Jeffrey V; Carney, Christopher; Hammons, Jennifer S; Mann, Michael; Al Shamali, Farida; Vallone, Peter M; Romsos, Erica L; Marne, Beth Ann; Tan, Eugene; Turingan, Rosemary S; Hogan, Catherine; Selden, Richard F; French, Julie L

    2016-11-01

    Since the implementation of forensic DNA typing in labs more than 20 years ago, the analysis procedures and data interpretation have always been conducted in a laboratory by highly trained and qualified scientific personnel. Rapid DNA technology has the potential to expand testing capabilities within forensic laboratories and to allow forensic STR analysis to be performed outside the physical boundaries of the traditional laboratory. The developmental validation of the DNAscan/ANDE Rapid DNA Analysis System was completed using a BioChipSet™ Cassette consumable designed for high DNA content samples, such as single source buccal swabs. A total of eight laboratories participated in the testing which totaled over 2300 swabs, and included nearly 1400 unique individuals. The goal of this extensive study was to obtain, document, analyze, and assess DNAscan and its internal Expert System to reliably genotype reference samples in a manner compliant with the FBI's Quality Assurance Standards (QAS) and the NDIS Operational Procedures. The DNAscan System provided high quality, concordant results for reference buccal swabs, including automated data analysis with an integrated Expert System. Seven external laboratories and NetBio, the developer of the technology, participated in the validation testing demonstrating the reproducibility and reliability of the system and its successful use in a variety of settings by numerous operators. The DNAscan System demonstrated limited cross reactivity with other species, was resilient in the presence of numerous inhibitors, and provided reproducible results for both buccal and purified DNA samples with sensitivity at a level appropriate for buccal swabs. The precision and resolution of the system met industry standards for detection of micro-variants and displayed single base resolution. PCR-based studies provided confidence that the system was robust and that the amplification reaction had been optimized to provide high quality results

  13. Combining analytical hierarchy process and agglomerative hierarchical clustering in search of expert consensus in green corridors development management.

    PubMed

    Shapira, Aviad; Shoshany, Maxim; Nir-Goldenberg, Sigal

    2013-07-01

    Environmental management and planning are instrumental in resolving conflicts arising between societal needs for economic development on the one hand and for open green landscapes on the other hand. Allocating green corridors between fragmented core green areas may provide a partial solution to these conflicts. Decisions regarding green corridor development require the assessment of alternative allocations based on multiple criteria evaluations. Analytical Hierarchy Process provides a methodology for both a structured and consistent extraction of such evaluations and for the search for consensus among experts regarding weights assigned to the different criteria. Implementing this methodology using 15 Israeli experts-landscape architects, regional planners, and geographers-revealed inherent differences in expert opinions in this field beyond professional divisions. The use of Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering allowed to identify clusters representing common decisions regarding criterion weights. Aggregating the evaluations of these clusters revealed an important dichotomy between a pragmatist approach that emphasizes the weight of statutory criteria and an ecological approach that emphasizes the role of the natural conditions in allocating green landscape corridors.

  14. CABPRO: An expert system for process planning multiwire cables. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Schaefer, R.M.

    1994-04-01

    CABPRO (CABle PROcessor) is a set of computer programs using Artificial Intelligence programming to automatically generate process plans and work instructions in support of the manufacture of multiwire cables. Development of these programs required selecting appropriate hardware and software tools, defining engineering process planning activities, acquiring and representing process planning knowledge, and creating a prototype system. A successful prototype was developed and demonstrated.

  15. Expert Biogeographers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bednarski, Marsha

    2006-01-01

    This article describes an alternative way of teaching about biomes by having students become expert biogeographers. In order to become experts students need to first find out what a biogeographer does. Doing an online search lets students find out for themselves what the responsibilities are of people who work in this field. A good place to visit…

  16. The DELPHI expert process of the German umbrella project AUGE as basis for recommendations to CO2 storage in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pilz, Peter; Schoebel, Birgit; Liebscher, Axel

    2016-04-01

    Within the GEOTECHNOLOGIEN funding scheme for geological CO2 storage by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) in Germany 33 projects (135 subprojects) have been funded with a total budget of 58 Mio € (excluding industry funds) from 2005 to 2014. In 2012, the German parliament passed the transposition of the EU CCS Directive 2009/31/EG into the national "Carbon Dioxide Storage Law" (KSpG). Annex 1 of the KSpG provides a description of criteria for the characterization and assessment of a potential CO2 storage site. Annex 2 describes the expected monitoring system of a CO2 storage site. The criteria given in the appendices are of general nature, which reflects (1) that the CO2 storage technology is still being developed and (2) that site specific aspects needs to be considered. In 2012 an umbrella project called AUGE has been launched in order to compile and summarize the results of the GEOTECHNOLOGIEN projects to underpin the two Annexes scientifically. By integration of the individual project results AUGE aims at derive recommendations for the review and implementation of the KSpG. The recommendations shall be drafted based on a common ground of science, public authorities and industry. Therefore, the AUGE project includes a Delphi expert process as an essential part. It is realized in cooperation with the company COMPARE Consulting, Göppingen. The implementation of the Delphi-Process is organized in three steps: • After the technical preparation of a standardized questionnaire (2014/2015) it was sent to 129 experts from science, industry and public authorities in Germany. After a few weeks of consideration time, 40 persons (30 %) had decided to participate actively in this inquiry. • Following the results of the first interrogation campaign, the second survey campaign started at the end of 2015. The same list of questions was used, complemented with the results of the first inquiry campaign. The intention is reduce the variance of the

  17. Microcomputer-based image processing system for CT/MRI scans: II. Expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwok, John C. K.; Yu, Peter K. N.; Cheng, Andrew Y. S.; Ho, Wai-Chin

    1991-06-01

    A microcomputer-based image processing system is used to digitize and process serial sections of CT/MRI scan and reconstruct three-dimensional images of brain structures and brain lesions. The images grabbed also serve as templates and different vital regions with different risk values are also traced out for 3D reconstruction. A knowledge-based system employing rule-based programming has been built to help identifying brain lesions and to help planning trajectory for operations. The volumes of the lesions are also automatically determined. Such system is very useful for medical skills archival, tumor size monitoring, survival and outcome forecasting, and consistent neurosurgical planning.

  18. The Role of Intuition in the Creative Process of Expert Chefs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stierand, Marc; Dörfler, Viktor

    2016-01-01

    Scholars studying intuition are frequently focusing on decision takers and to this day, they conceptualize intuition as a form of judgment. More recently, the notion of intuition in creativity has been challenged by the argument that although the creative process may contain intuitive judgments, any creative idea or solution is essentially the…

  19. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, A. C. H.

    1994-01-01

    Reports on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Results revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are…

  20. Understanding a Basic Biological Process: Expert and Novice Models of Meiosis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    The results of a study of the meiosis models utilized by individuals at varying levels of expertise while reasoning about the process of meiosis are presented. Based on these results, the issues of sources of misconceptions/difficulties and the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis are discussed. Five individuals from each of three…

  1. An expert system supporting decision making process for sustainable groundwater use in main alluvial aquifers in Slovenia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Souvent, Petra; Vižintin, Goran; Celarc, Sašo; Čenčur Curk, Barbara

    2016-04-01

    The expert decision support system for groundwater management in the shallow alluvial aquifers was developed to assist the decision makers to quantify available groundwater for a given alluvial aquifer and provide additional information about quantity of groundwater available for water rights licensing. The system links numerical groundwater flow models with the water permits and concessions databases in a complex decision support system. Six regional stand-alone groundwater models are used in the process of the assessment of groundwater quantitative status as well as for assessing availability of groundwater resources during the period of maximum water consumption and minimum groundwater recharge. Model runs have been realized in a steady state and are calibrated to a medium-low hydrological field conditions, because water quantities for all already granted as well as to-be granted water rights have to be ensured in any time for several years. The major goal of the expert decision support system is therefore to provide control mechanisms in order to verify the water rights licensing for the sustainable use of groundwater resources. The system enables that the water quantity data from water permits and concessions in conjunction with the results of numerical groundwater modeling are used in the managing process of granting new water rights to users in terms of their long-term access to groundwater (sufficient quantity of groundwater) and in relation to the water rights of other users (co-impact of groundwater pumping). Also, groundwater access must be managed in such a way that it does not cause unacceptable local impacts (pumping must not lower the water level for more than 2/3 of water body in the medium-low hydrological conditions).

  2. Understanding a basic biological process: Expert and novice models of meiosis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kindfield, Ann C. H.

    Central to secondary and college-level biology instruction is the development of student understanding of a number of subcellular processes. Yet some of the most crucial are consistently cited as the most difficult components of biology to learn. Among these is meiosis. In this article I report on the meiosis models utilized by five individuals at each of three levels of expertise in genetics as each reasoned about this process in an individual interview setting. Detailed characterization of individual meiosis models and comparison among models revealed a set of biologically correct features common to all individuals' models as well as a variety of model flaws (i.e., meiosis misunderstandings) which are categorized according to type and level of expertise. These results are suggestive of both sources of various misunderstandings and factors that might contribute to the construction of a sound understanding of meiosis. Each of these is addressed in relation to their respective implications for instruction.

  3. Expert Seeker

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fernandez, Becerra

    2003-01-01

    Expert Seeker is a computer program of the knowledge-management-system (KMS) type that falls within the category of expertise-locator systems. The main goal of the KMS system implemented by Expert Seeker is to organize and distribute knowledge of who are the domain experts within and without a given institution, company, or other organization. The intent in developing this KMS was to enable the re-use of organizational knowledge and provide a methodology for querying existing information (including structured, semistructured, and unstructured information) in a way that could help identify organizational experts. More specifically, Expert Seeker was developed to make it possible, by use of an intranet, to do any or all of the following: Assist an employee in identifying who has the skills needed for specific projects and to determine whether the experts so identified are available. Assist managers in identifying employees who may need training opportunities. Assist managers in determining what expertise is lost when employees retire or otherwise leave. Facilitate the development of new ways of identifying opportunities for innovation and minimization of duplicated efforts. Assist employees in achieving competitive advantages through the application of knowledge-management concepts and related systems. Assist external organizations in requesting speakers for specific engagements or determining from whom they might be able to request help via electronic mail. Help foster an environment of collaboration for rapid development in today's environment, in which it is increasingly necessary to assemble teams of experts from government, universities, research laboratories, and industries, to quickly solve problems anytime, anywhere. Make experts more visible. Provide a central repository of information about employees, including information that, heretofore, has typically not been captured by the human-resources systems (e.g., information about past projects, patents, or

  4. Expert networks in CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hruska, S. I.; Dalke, A.; Ferguson, J. J.; Lacher, R. C.

    1991-01-01

    Rule-based expert systems may be structurally and functionally mapped onto a special class of neural networks called expert networks. This mapping lends itself to adaptation of connectionist learning strategies for the expert networks. A parsing algorithm to translate C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) rules into a network of interconnected assertion and operation nodes has been developed. The translation of CLIPS rules to an expert network and back again is illustrated. Measures of uncertainty similar to those rules in MYCIN-like systems are introduced into the CLIPS system and techniques for combining and hiring nodes in the network based on rule-firing with these certainty factors in the expert system are presented. Several learning algorithms are under study which automate the process of attaching certainty factors to rules.

  5. An instructional design process based on expert knowledge for teaching students how mechanisms are explained.

    PubMed

    Trujillo, Caleb M; Anderson, Trevor R; Pelaez, Nancy J

    2016-06-01

    In biology and physiology courses, students face many difficulties when learning to explain mechanisms, a topic that is demanding due to the immense complexity and abstract nature of molecular and cellular mechanisms. To overcome these difficulties, we asked the following question: how does an instructor transform their understanding of biological mechanisms and other difficult-to-learn topics so that students can comprehend them? To address this question, we first reviewed a model of the components used by biologists to explain molecular and cellular mechanisms: the MACH model, with the components of methods (M), analogies (A), context (C), and how (H). Next, instructional materials were developed and the teaching activities were piloted with a physical MACH model. Students who used the MACH model to guide their explanations of mechanisms exhibited both improvements and some new difficulties. Third, a series of design-based research cycles was applied to bring the activities with an improved physical MACH model into biology and biochemistry courses. Finally, a useful rubric was developed to address prevalent student difficulties. Here, we present, for physiology and biology instructors, the knowledge and resources for explaining molecular and cellular mechanisms in undergraduate courses with an instructional design process aimed at realizing pedagogical content knowledge for teaching. Our four-stage process could be adapted to advance instruction with a range of models in the life sciences.

  6. Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon Monica; Reveley, Mary S.; Luxhoj, James T.

    2012-01-01

    Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

  7. Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Perkins, David M.; Aspinall, Willy P.; Kiremidjian, Anne S.

    2014-01-01

    The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke's approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke's approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments couple with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The performance-based scoring system reflects the combined measure of an expert's informativeness about variables in the problem are under consideration, and their ability to enumerate, in a statistically accurate way through expressing their true beliefs, the quantitative uncertainties associated with their assessments. We summarize the findings of an expert elicitation workshop in which a dozen earthquake-engineering professionals from around the world were engaged to estimate seismic collapse fragility for generic construction types. Development of seismic collapse fragility-functions was accomplished by combining their judgments using weights derived from Cooke's method. Although substantial effort was needed to elicit the inputs of these experts successfully, we anticipate that the elicitation strategy described here will gain momentum in a wide variety of earthquake seismology and engineering hazard and risk analyses where physical model and data limitations are inherent and objective professional judgment can fill gaps.

  8. Towards elicitation of users requirements for hospital information system: from a care process modelling technique to a web based collaborative tool.

    PubMed Central

    Staccini, Pascal M.; Joubert, Michel; Quaranta, Jean-Francois; Fieschi, Marius

    2002-01-01

    Growing attention is being given to the use of process modeling methodology for user requirements elicitation. In the analysis phase of hospital information systems, the usefulness of care-process models has been investigated to evaluate the conceptual applicability and practical understandability by clinical staff and members of users teams. Nevertheless, there still remains a gap between users and analysts in their mutual ability to share conceptual views and vocabulary, keeping the meaning of clinical context while providing elements for analysis. One of the solutions for filling this gap is to consider the process model itself in the role of a hub as a centralized means of facilitating communication between team members. Starting with a robust and descriptive technique for process modeling called IDEF0/SADT, we refined the basic data model by extracting concepts from ISO 9000 process analysis and from enterprise ontology. We defined a web-based architecture to serve as a collaborative tool and implemented it using an object-oriented database. The prospects of such a tool are discussed notably regarding to its ability to generate data dictionaries and to be used as a navigation tool through the medium of hospital-wide documentation. PMID:12463921

  9. Ludic Elicitation: Using Games for Knowledge Elicitation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cao, Yan

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge elicitation from human beings is important for many fields, such as decision support systems, risk communication, and customer preference studying. Traditional approaches include observations, questionnaires, structured and semi-structured interviews, and group discussions. Many publications have been studying different techniques for a…

  10. Annotation methods to develop and evaluate an expert system based on natural language processing in electronic medical records.

    PubMed

    Gicquel, Quentin; Tvardik, Nastassia; Bouvry, Côme; Kergourlay, Ivan; Bittar, André; Segond, Frédérique; Darmoni, Stefan; Metzger, Marie-Hélène

    2015-01-01

    The objective of the SYNODOS collaborative project was to develop a generic IT solution, combining a medical terminology server, a semantic analyser and a knowledge base. The goal of the project was to generate meaningful epidemiological data for various medical domains from the textual content of French medical records. In the context of this project, we built a care pathway oriented conceptual model and corresponding annotation method to develop and evaluate an expert system's knowledge base. The annotation method is based on a semi-automatic process, using a software application (MedIndex). This application exchanges with a cross-lingual multi-termino-ontology portal. The annotator selects the most appropriate medical code proposed for the medical concept in question by the multi-termino-ontology portal and temporally labels the medical concept according to the course of the medical event. This choice of conceptual model and annotation method aims to create a generic database of facts for the secondary use of electronic health records data.

  11. Rule based processing of the CD4000, CD3200 and CD Sapphire analyser output using the Cerner Discern Expert Module.

    PubMed

    Burgess, P; Robin, H; Langshaw, M; Kershaw, G; Pathiraja, R; Yuen, S; Coad, C; Xiros, N; Mansy, G; Coleman, R; Brown, R; Gibson, J; Holman, R; Hubbard, J; Wick, V; Lammers, M; Johnson, R; Huffman, K; Bell, J; Ibrahim, A; Estepa, F; Lovegrove, J; Joshua, D

    2009-12-01

    The latest version of our Laboratory Information System haematology laboratory expert system that handles the output of Abbott Cell-Dyn Sapphires, CD4000s and a CD3200 full blood count analyser in three high-volume haematology laboratories is described. The three hospital laboratories use Cerner Millennium Version 2007.02 software and the expert system uses Cerner Millennium Discern Expert rules and some small Cerner Command Language in-house programs. The entire expert system is totally integrated with the area-wide database and has been built and maintained by haematology staff members, as has the haematology database. Using patient demographic data, analyser numeric results, analyser error and morphology flags and previous results for the patient, this expert system decides whether to validate the main full blood count indices and white cell differential, or if the analyser results warrant further operator intervention/investigation before verifying, whether a blood film is required for microscopic review and if abnormal results require phoning to the staff treating the patient. The principles of this expert system can be generalized to different haematology analysers and haematology laboratories that have different workflows and different software.

  12. Expert judgment and expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Mumpower, J.; Phillips, L.D.; Renn, O.; Uppuluri, V.R.R.

    1987-01-01

    This volume collects researchers from the fields of psychology, decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The purposes were to assess similarities, differences, and complementarities among the three approaches to the study of expert judgment; to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses; and to propose profitable linkages between them. Each of the papers in the present volume is directed toward one or more of these goals.

  13. Beyond the core face-processing network: Intracerebral stimulation of a face-selective area in the right anterior fusiform gyrus elicits transient prosopagnosia.

    PubMed

    Jonas, Jacques; Rossion, Bruno; Brissart, Hélène; Frismand, Solène; Jacques, Corentin; Hossu, Gabriela; Colnat-Coulbois, Sophie; Vespignani, Hervé; Vignal, Jean-Pierre; Maillard, Louis

    2015-11-01

    According to neuropsychological evidence, a distributed network of regions of the ventral visual pathway - from the lateral occipital cortex to the temporal pole - supports face recognition. However, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have generally confined ventral face-selective areas to the posterior section of the occipito-temporal cortex, i.e., the inferior occipital gyrus occipital face area (OFA) and the posterior and middle fusiform gyrus fusiform face area (FFA). There is recent evidence that intracranial electrical stimulation of these areas in the right hemisphere elicits face matching and recognition impairments (i.e., prosopagnosia) as well as perceptual face distortions. Here we report a case of transient inability to recognize faces following electrical stimulation of the right anterior fusiform gyrus, in a region located anteriorly to the FFA. There was no perceptual face distortion reported during stimulation. Although no fMRI face-selective responses were found in this region due to a severe signal drop-out as in previous studies, intracerebral face-selective event-related potentials and gamma range electrophysiological responses were found at the critical site of stimulation. These results point to a causal role in face recognition of the right anterior fusiform gyrus and more generally of face-selective areas located beyond the "core" face-processing network in the right ventral temporal cortex. It also illustrates the diagnostic value of intracerebral electrophysiological recordings and stimulation in understanding the neural basis of face recognition and visual recognition in general.

  14. Subjective Probability Distribution Elicitation in Cost Risk Analysis: A Review

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-01-01

    where reasonable, to counteract known biases in elicitation). 1 For the triangle distribution, the probability is set to zero outside the endpoints...probability is set to zero outside the endpoints, while between the endpoints the density rises linearly from the lower value to the most-likely values...Wheeler, T. A., S. C. Hora , W. R. Cramond, and S. D. Unwin, Analysis of Core Damage Frequency from Internal Events: Expert Judgment Elicitation

  15. Knowledge Elicitation: Phase 1 Final Report. Volume 1

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-06-01

    artificial intelligence has been focused on methods for eliciting and representing expert knowledge (e.g., Newell and Simon, 1972; Schank and Abelson...methods. These issues have not yet been dealt with in a satisfactory way, either in the artificial intelligence community or by cognitive psychologists...ELICITATION 2.1 The Myth of "Mining for Nugets" of Knowledge The central question in the field of artificial intelligence, whether computers can be

  16. Fracture mechanics expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Powers, E.; Elfer, N.; Casadaban, C.

    1992-01-01

    Attention is given to fracture mechanics, an analytical method used extensively in the National Space Transportation System to conservatively predict the remaining service life of an article when a flaw or a material defect is detected. These analyses are performed on hardware containing material defects that have been detected by various nondestructive inspection techniques. An expert system being developed to streamline the process so that hardware dispositions may be obtained in a timely and consistent manner is discussed. The expert system reduces the potential for errors due to the manual transcription between the various software programs involved in completing a fracture mechanics analysis. NEXPERT Object, the expert system development shell selected for this purpose, allows the various software programs used in fracture mechanics analyses to be accessed and manipulated from the same platform.

  17. Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

    1992-01-01

    Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

  18. SENLEX: Sensor layout expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Ward, J.D.; Sena, K.J.

    1986-01-01

    An expert system is under development to carry out intrusion detection sensor placement for physical security systems. Expert systems are computer programs that use symbolic programming techniques to duplicate the reasoning processes of human experts. Because sensitive facilities often require complex, multi-sensor intrusion detection systems, the design rules for achieving high levels of detection performance are not easily transferred to novices. Since these design rules reside in the minds of the individual experts performing the tasks, the need to consolidate this knowledge in a form that is available to others was a driving force in this project. The first phase of this project is described in this paper. It consists of an expert system for sensor placement in a graded clear zone. The program has the capability of handling several different sensor types and of coordinating the placement of multiple sensor types. The designs produced by the program in comparison with the designs produced by human experts are discussed.

  19. Capital Expert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dowell, Laurie; Gary, Jack; Illingworth, Bill; Sargent, Tom

    1987-05-01

    Gathering information, necessary forms, and financial calculations needed to generate a "capital investment proposal" is an extremely complex and difficult process. The intent of the capital investment proposal is to ensure management that the proposed investment has been thoroughly investigated and will have a positive impact on corporate goals. Meeting this requirement typically takes four or five experts a total of 12 hours to generate a "Capital Package." A Capital Expert System was therefore developed using "Personal Consultant." The completed system is hybrid and as such does not depend solely on rules but incorporates several different software packages that communicate through variables and functions passed from one to another. This paper describes the use of expert system techniques, methodology in building the knowledge base, contexts, LISP functions, data base, and special challenges that had to be overcome to create this system. The Capital Expert System is the successful result of a unique integration of artificial intelligence with business accounting, financial forms generation, and investment proposal expertise.

  20. Issues in Requirements Elicitation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-09-01

    systems approach: characterized by Checkland’s Soft Systems Methodology (SSM), which is discussed briefly in Appendix A.6; emphasizes the subjectivity of...methodology for requirements elicitation. A.6 Notes on SSM Both the definition of methodology and the philosophy behind soft systems methodology (SSM...1986. [Checkland 89a] Checkland, Peter. Soft Systems Methodology . Rational Analysis for a Problematic World. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 71-100

  1. Text Mining and Natural Language Processing Approaches for Automatic Categorization of Lay Requests to Web-Based Expert Forums

    PubMed Central

    Reincke, Ulrich; Michelmann, Hans Wilhelm

    2009-01-01

    Background Both healthy and sick people increasingly use electronic media to obtain medical information and advice. For example, Internet users may send requests to Web-based expert forums, or so-called “ask the doctor” services. Objective To automatically classify lay requests to an Internet medical expert forum using a combination of different text-mining strategies. Methods We first manually classified a sample of 988 requests directed to a involuntary childlessness forum on the German website “Rund ums Baby” (“Everything about Babies”) into one or more of 38 categories belonging to two dimensions (“subject matter” and “expectations”). After creating start and synonym lists, we calculated the average Cramer’s V statistic for the association of each word with each category. We also used principle component analysis and singular value decomposition as further text-mining strategies. With these measures we trained regression models and determined, on the basis of best regression models, for any request the probability of belonging to each of the 38 different categories, with a cutoff of 50%. Recall and precision of a test sample were calculated as a measure of quality for the automatic classification. Results According to the manual classification of 988 documents, 102 (10%) documents fell into the category “in vitro fertilization (IVF),” 81 (8%) into the category “ovulation,” 79 (8%) into “cycle,” and 57 (6%) into “semen analysis.” These were the four most frequent categories in the subject matter dimension (consisting of 32 categories). The expectation dimension comprised six categories; we classified 533 documents (54%) as “general information” and 351 (36%) as a wish for “treatment recommendations.” The generation of indicator variables based on the chi-square analysis and Cramer’s V proved to be the best approach for automatic classification in about half of the categories. In combination with the two other

  2. Elicitation Support Requirements of Multi-Expertise Teams

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bitter-Rijpkema, Marlies; Martens, Rob; Jochems, Wim

    2005-01-01

    Tools to support knowledge elicitation are used more and more in situations where employees or students collaborate using the computer. Studies indicate that differences exist between experts and novices regarding their methods of work and reasoning. However, the commonly preferred approach tends to deal with team members as a single system with…

  3. Eliciting User Requirements Using Appreciative Inquiry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonzales, Carol Kernitzki

    2010-01-01

    Many software development projects fail because they do not meet the needs of users, are over-budget, and abandoned. To address this problem, the user requirements elicitation process was modified based on principles of Appreciative Inquiry. Appreciative Inquiry, commonly used in organizational development, aims to build organizations, processes,…

  4. Expert systems for personnel assignment

    SciTech Connect

    Hardee, J.L.; Liepins, G.

    1986-01-01

    In order to reduce stress on assignment personnel (detailers) and ensure maximum fairness and consistency in the Navy's personnel assignment process, The Navy Military Personnel Command (NMPC) has begun to explore the potential use of expert systems to supplement current manual and computerized distribution methods. The Detailer's Assistant expert system is being developed to improve the detailers' ability to satisfy the needs of their constituents and Navy management. An initial prototype of the Detailer's Assistant is now being evaluated. Numerous upgrades and extensions should lead to an operational system in the near future. Further development to a production system will involve additional research in machine learning, intelligent database methods, and cooperating expert systems.

  5. Expert opinions of demographic rates of Argentine black and white tegus in South Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Fred A.

    2017-01-01

    We illustrate the utility of expert elicitation, explicit recognition of uncertainty, and the value of information for directing management and research efforts for invasive species, using tegu lizards (Salvator merianae) in southern Florida as a case study.  We posited a post-birth pulse, matrix model, which was parameterized using a 3-point process to elicit estimates of tegu demographic rates from herpetology experts.  We fit statistical distributions for each parameter and for each expert, then drew and pooled a large number of replicate samples from these to form a distribution for each demographic parameter.  Using these distributions, we generated a large sample of matrix models to infer how the tegu population might respond to control efforts.  We used the concepts of Pareto efficiency and stochastic dominance to conclude that targeting older age classes at relatively high rates appears to have the best chance of minimizing tegu abundance and control costs.  Expert opinion combined with an explicit consideration of uncertainty can be valuable for conducting an initial assessment of the effort needed to control the invader.  The value of information can be used to focus research in a way that not only helps increases the efficacy of control, but minimizes costs as well.

  6. Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: expert beliefs.

    PubMed

    MacDonald, Jacqueline Anne; Small, Mitchell J; Morgan, M G

    2008-08-01

    This article reports on a study to quantify expert beliefs about the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Some 1,976 sites at closed military bases in the United States are contaminated with UXO and are slated for cleanup, at an estimated cost of $15-140 billion. Because no available technology can guarantee 100% removal of UXO, information about explosion probability is needed to assess the residual risks of civilian reuse of closed military bases and to make decisions about how much to invest in cleanup. This study elicited probability distributions for the chance of UXO explosion from 25 experts in explosive ordnance disposal, all of whom have had field experience in UXO identification and deactivation. The study considered six different scenarios: three different types of UXO handled in two different ways (one involving children and the other involving construction workers). We also asked the experts to rank by sensitivity to explosion 20 different kinds of UXO found at a case study site at Fort Ord, California. We found that the experts do not agree about the probability of UXO explosion, with significant differences among experts in their mean estimates of explosion probabilities and in the amount of uncertainty that they express in their estimates. In three of the six scenarios, the divergence was so great that the average of all the expert probability distributions was statistically indistinguishable from a uniform (0, 1) distribution-suggesting that the sum of expert opinion provides no information at all about the explosion risk. The experts' opinions on the relative sensitivity to explosion of the 20 UXO items also diverged. The average correlation between rankings of any pair of experts was 0.41, which, statistically, is barely significant (p= 0.049) at the 95% confidence level. Thus, one expert's rankings provide little predictive information about another's rankings. The lack of consensus among experts suggests that empirical studies

  7. Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Yvette B.; Mccall, Kurt E.

    1992-01-01

    The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System-2, or 'NICBES-2', which was used by the NASA HST six-battery testbed, was subsequently converted into the Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System, or 'NICHES'. Accounts are presently given of this conversion process and future uses being contemplated for NICHES. NICHES will calculate orbital summary data at the end of each orbit, and store these files for trend analyses and rules-generation.

  8. Is expert opinion reliable when estimating transition probabilities? The case of HCV-related cirrhosis in Egypt

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Data on HCV-related cirrhosis progression are scarce in developing countries in general, and in Egypt in particular. The objective of this study was to estimate the probability of death and transition between different health stages of HCV (compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma) for an Egyptian population of patients with HCV-related cirrhosis. Methods We used the “elicitation of expert opinions” method to obtain collective knowledge from a panel of 23 Egyptian experts (among whom 17 were hepatologists or gastroenterologists and 2 were infectiologists). The questionnaire was based on virtual medical cases and asked the experts to assess probability of death or probability of various cirrhosis complications. The design was a Delphi study: we attempted to obtain a consensus between experts via a series of questionnaires interspersed with group response feedback. Results We found substantial disparity between experts’ answers, and no consensus was reached at the end of the process. Moreover, we obtained high death probability and high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. The annual transition probability to death was estimated at between 10.1% and 61.5% and the annual probability of occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma was estimated at between 16.8% and 58.9% (depending on age, gender, time spent in cirrhosis and cirrhosis severity). Conclusions Our results show that eliciting expert opinions is not suited for determining the natural history of diseases due to practitioners’ difficulties in evaluating quantities. Cognitive bias occurring during this type of study might explain our results. PMID:24635942

  9. The nutrition advisor expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huse, Scott M.; Shyne, Scott S.

    1991-01-01

    The Nutrition Advisor Expert System (NAES) is an expert system written in the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS). NAES provides expert knowledge and guidance into the complex world of nutrition management by capturing the knowledge of an expert and placing it at the user's fingertips. Specifically, NAES enables the user to: (1) obtain precise nutrition information for food items; (2) perform nutritional analysis of meal(s), flagging deficiencies based upon the U.S. Recommended Daily Allowances; (3) predict possible ailments based upon observed nutritional deficiency trends; (4) obtain a top ten listing of food items for a given nutrient; and (5) conveniently upgrade the data base. An explanation facility for the ailment prediction feature is also provided to document the reasoning process.

  10. The diagnosis of microcytic anemia by a rule-based expert system using VP-Expert.

    PubMed

    O'Connor, M L; McKinney, T

    1989-09-01

    We describe our experience in creating a rule-based expert system for the interpretation of microcytic anemia using the expert system development tool, VP-Expert, running on an IBM personal computer. VP-Expert processes data (complete blood cell count results, age, and sex) according to a set of user-written logic rules (our program) to reach conclusions as to the following causes of microcytic anemia: alpha- and beta-thalassemia trait, iron deficiency, and anemia of chronic disease. Our expert system was tested using previously interpreted complete blood cell count data. In most instances, there was good agreement between the expert system and its pathologist-author, but many discrepancies were found in the interpretation of anemia of chronic disease. We conclude that VP-Expert has a useful level of power and flexibility, yet is simple enough that individuals with modest programming experience can create their own expert systems. Limitations of such expert systems are discussed.

  11. Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

    2016-04-01

    For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

  12. SENLEX: sensor layout expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Ward, J.D.; Sena, K.J.

    1986-01-01

    An expert system is under development to carry out intrusion detection sensor placement for physical security systems. Expert systems are computer programs that use symbolic programming techniques to duplicate the reasoning processes of human experts. Because sensitive facilities often require complex, multi-sensor intrusion detection systems, the design rules for achieving high levels of detection performance are not easily transferred to novices. Since these design rules reside in the minds of the individual experts performing the tasks, the need to consolidate this knowledge in a form that is available to others was a driving force in this project. The first phase of this project is described in this paper. It consists of an expert system for sensor placement in a graded clear zone. The program has the capability of handling several different sensor types and of coordinating the placement of multiple sensor types. The designs produced by the program in comparison with the designs produced by human experts are discussed. 5 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  13. Robotics and expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1986-01-01

    This volume contains papers presented at ROBEXS' 86, the Second Annual Workshop on Robotics and Expert Systems. Many diverse perspectives on automation problems, and on the merging of robotics and expert systems technology with conventional systems, are contained in this book. The contents include: Integrated Expert Systems Applications; Expert Systems Theory and Applications, Robotics, Intelligent Control, CAD/CAE/CAM, AI Tools, Human Factors, and intelligent Interfaces.

  14. Eliciting Public Attitudes Regarding Bioremediation Cleanup Technologies: Lessons Learned from a Consensus Workshop in Idaho

    SciTech Connect

    Denise Lach, Principle Investigator; Stephanie Sanford, Co-P.I.

    2003-03-01

    During the summer of 2002, we developed and implemented a ''consensus workshop'' with Idaho citizens to elicit their concerns and issues regarding the use of bioremediation as a cleanup technology for radioactive nuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy (DOE) sites. The consensus workshop is a derivation of a technology assessment method designed to ensure dialogue between experts and lay people. It has its origins in the United States in the form of ''consensus development conferences'' used by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to elicit professional knowledge and concerns about new medical treatments. Over the last 25 years, NIH has conducted over 100 consensus development conferences. (Jorgensen 1995). The consensus conference is grounded in the idea that technology assessment and policy needs to be socially negotiated among many different stakeholders and groups rather than narrowly defined by a group of experts. To successfully implement new technology, the public requires access to information that addresses a full complement of issues including understanding the organization proposing the technology. The consensus conference method creates an informed dialogue, making technology understandable to the general public and sets it within perspectives and priorities that may differ radically from those of the expert community. While specific outcomes differ depending on the overall context of a conference, one expected outcome is that citizen panel members develop greater knowledge of the technology during the conference process and, sometimes, the entire panel experiences a change in attitude toward the technology and/or the organization proposing its use (Kluver 1995). The purpose of this research project was to explore the efficacy of the consensus conference model as a way to elicit the input of the general public about bioremediation of radionuclides and heavy metals at Department of Energy sites. Objectives of the research included: (1

  15. Brain response to birdsongs in bird experts.

    PubMed

    Chartrand, Jean-Pierre; Filion-Bilodeau, Sarah; Belin, Pascal

    2007-03-05

    Auditory expertise has mostly been studied in relation to musical processing, but expert auditory processing can also involve nonmusical auditory stimuli, such as birdsongs in bird experts. In this study, the neural correlates of bird expertise were investigated by using electroencephalography to measure auditory-evoked potentials in bird experts and novices. Auditory stimuli in three categories (birdsongs, environmental sounds and voices) were presented in a pseudo-random order while participants performed a simple target detection task (pure tone). We observed similar amplitudes and distributions of the N100-component in bird experts and novices. In contrast, the amplitude of the P200 component was significantly smaller in bird experts at the Pz and Cz electrodes, reflecting a more frontal topography of this positivity. Notably, this group difference was observed not only for birdsongs, but also for voices and environmental sounds, suggesting a general processing difference in bird experts, not restricted to the category of expertise.

  16. The Expert Witness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Environmental Science and Technology, 1975

    1975-01-01

    As consumers organize and industry begins to feel the economic pinch of pollution control laws, litigation may increase as will the need for the expert witness. Discussed are the functions and preparations of expert witnesses, their role and conduct in judicial proceedings, and the techniques of being an expert witness. (BT)

  17. How experiences become data: the process of eliciting adverse event, medical history and concomitant medication reports in antimalarial and antiretroviral interaction trials

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Accurately characterizing a drug’s safety profile is essential. Trial harm and tolerability assessments rely, in part, on participants’ reports of medical histories, adverse events (AEs), and concomitant medications. Optimal methods for questioning participants are unclear, but different methods giving different results can undermine meta-analyses. This study compared methods for eliciting such data and explored reasons for dissimilar participant responses. Methods Participants from open-label antimalarial and antiretroviral interaction trials in two distinct sites (South Africa, n = 18 [all HIV positive]; Tanzania, n = 80 [86% HIV positive]) were asked about ill health and treatment use by sequential use of (1) general enquiries without reference to particular conditions, body systems or treatments, (2) checklists of potential health issues and treatments, (3) in-depth interviews. Participants’ experiences of illness and treatment and their reporting behaviour were explored qualitatively, as were trial clinicians’ experiences with obtaining participant reports. Outcomes were the number and nature of data by questioning method, themes from qualitative analyses and a theoretical interpretation of participants’ experiences. Results There was an overall cumulative increase in the number of reports from general enquiry through checklists to in-depth interview; in South Africa, an additional 12 medical histories, 21 AEs and 27 medications; in Tanzania an additional 260 medical histories, 1 AE and 11 medications. Checklists and interviews facilitated recognition of health issues and treatments, and consideration of what to report. Information was sometimes not reported because participants forgot, it was considered irrelevant or insignificant, or they feared reporting. Some medicine names were not known and answers to questions were considered inferior to blood tests for detecting ill health. South African inpatient volunteers exhibited a

  18. Liquid low level waste management expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Ferrada, J.J.; Abraham, T.J. ); Jackson, J.R. )

    1991-01-01

    An expert system has been developed as part of a new initiative for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) systems analysis program. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem, as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. 4 refs., 9 figs.

  19. Expert Planning Processes in Writing

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-12-17

    three different kinds of treatment: no coverage with metaphor, some coverage and extended coverage. For example, consider the concept: • the hookworm ...enters the body by piercincl the skin. Although this target concept was covered with metaphor in the extended version of the immunity text ( hookworm is

  20. Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors.

    PubMed

    Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M Granger

    2013-06-11

    Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable.

  1. Expert assessments of the cost of light water small modular reactors

    PubMed Central

    Abdulla, Ahmed; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M. Granger

    2013-01-01

    Analysts and decision makers frequently want estimates of the cost of technologies that have yet to be developed or deployed. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which could become part of a portfolio of carbon-free energy sources, are one such technology. Existing estimates of likely SMR costs rely on problematic top-down approaches or bottom-up assessments that are proprietary. When done properly, expert elicitations can complement these approaches. We developed detailed technical descriptions of two SMR designs and then conduced elicitation interviews in which we obtained probabilistic judgments from 16 experts who are involved in, or have access to, engineering-economic assessments of SMR projects. Here, we report estimates of the overnight cost and construction duration for five reactor-deployment scenarios that involve a large reactor and two light water SMRs. Consistent with the uncertainty introduced by past cost overruns and construction delays, median estimates of the cost of new large plants vary by more than a factor of 2.5. Expert judgments about likely SMR costs display an even wider range. Median estimates for a 45 megawatts-electric (MWe) SMR range from $4,000 to $16,300/kWe and from $3,200 to $7,100/kWe for a 225-MWe SMR. Sources of disagreement are highlighted, exposing the thought processes of experts involved with SMR design. There was consensus that SMRs could be built and brought online about 2 y faster than large reactors. Experts identify more affordable unit cost, factory fabrication, and shorter construction schedules as factors that may make light water SMRs economically viable. PMID:23716682

  2. Statistical Fault Detection & Diagnosis Expert System

    SciTech Connect

    Wegerich, Stephan

    1996-12-18

    STATMON is an expert system that performs real-time fault detection and diagnosis of redundant sensors in any industrial process requiring high reliability. After a training period performed during normal operation, the expert system monitors the statistical properties of the incoming signals using a pattern recognition test. If the test determines that statistical properties of the signals have changed, the expert system performs a sequence of logical steps to determine which sensor or machine component has degraded.

  3. Expert systems in government symposium

    SciTech Connect

    Karna, K.N.

    1985-01-01

    This book presents the papers given at a symposium on various applications of expert systems. Topics considered at the symposium included knowledge-based reasoning, new directions in knowledge acquisition, software, programming languages, systems engineering, intelligent information retrieval, reactor safety assessment, medical applications, uncertainty management, algorithms, parallel processing, and artificial intelligence.

  4. [Judicial institutions of medical experts].

    PubMed

    Godoy, Roberto Lm

    2016-05-01

    This article considers the evolutive process that judicial organisms of medical experts have experienced in Argentina since their creation and formulates a proposal for its adequacy and modernization. Due to multiple and various evolutive factors, judicial organisms managing medicolegal expert activities show, nowadays, signals that a structural and dynamic reform is needed. They remain as organizational units of Public Administration and their effectiveness and efficiency depends not only of a scientific criteria but a managing one. The present and future challenge will be their conceptual transformation, from "corporate scientific entities" to "public-service-providing units" within the justice administration system.

  5. Expert system application education project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

    1988-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

  6. What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bond, C. E.

    2008-12-01

    Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

  7. Expert systems for superalloy studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

    1990-01-01

    There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

  8. SENLEX: a sensor layout expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Ward, J.D.; Sena, K.J.

    1986-06-25

    An expert system is under development to carry out intrusion detection sensor placement for physical security systems. Expert systems are computer programs that use symbolic programming techniques to duplicate the reasoning processes of human experts. Because sensitive facilities often require complex, multi-sensor intrusion detection systems, the design rules for achieving high levels of detection performance are not easily transferred to novices. Since these design rules reside in the minds of the individual experts performing the tasks, the need to consolidate this knowledge in a form that is available to others was a driving force in this project. The first phase of this project is described in this paper. It consists of an expert system for sensor placement in a graded clear zone. The program has the capability of handling several different sensor types and of coordinating the placement of multiple sensor types. The designs produced by the program in comparison with the designs produced by human experts are discussed.

  9. Hybrid expert system for decision supporting in the medical area: complexity and cognitive computing.

    PubMed

    Brasil, L M; de Azevedo, F M; Barreto, J M

    2001-09-01

    This paper proposes a hybrid expert system (HES) to minimise some complexity problems pervasive to the artificial intelligence such as: the knowledge elicitation process, known as the bottleneck of expert systems; the model choice for knowledge representation to code human reasoning; the number of neurons in the hidden layer and the topology used in the connectionist approach; the difficulty to obtain the explanation on how the network arrived to a conclusion. Two algorithms applied to developing of HES are also suggested. One of them is used to train the fuzzy neural network and the other to obtain explanations on how the fuzzy neural network attained a conclusion. To overcome these difficulties the cognitive computing was integrated to the developed system. A case study is presented (e.g. epileptic crisis) with the problem definition and simulations. Results are also discussed.

  10. Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions

    PubMed Central

    Billari, F C; Graziani, R; Melilli, E

    2012-01-01

    The paper develops and applies an expert-based stochastic population forecasting method, which can also be used to obtain a probabilistic version of scenario-based official forecasts. The full probability distribution of population forecasts is specified by starting from expert opinions on the future development of demographic components. Expert opinions are elicited as conditional on the realization of scenarios, in a two-step (or multiple-step) fashion. The method is applied to develop a stochastic forecast for the Italian population, starting from official scenarios from the Italian National Statistical Office. PMID:22879704

  11. Expert Teacher Action Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Washington, Eva

    The expert teacher action program is to improve classroom teaching performance. The program has been tested in workshop sessions involving more than 1,200 educators representing 50 school districts. A set of standards, consisting of 25 variables, lead to the definition of expert teaching. Each variable deals with a major aspect of the duties of…

  12. Expert system technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prince, Mary Ellen

    1987-01-01

    The expert system is a computer program which attempts to reproduce the problem-solving behavior of an expert, who is able to view problems from a broad perspective and arrive at conclusions rapidly, using intuition, shortcuts, and analogies to previous situations. Expert systems are a departure from the usual artificial intelligence approach to problem solving. Researchers have traditionally tried to develop general modes of human intelligence that could be applied to many different situations. Expert systems, on the other hand, tend to rely on large quantities of domain specific knowledge, much of it heuristic. The reasoning component of the system is relatively simple and straightforward. For this reason, expert systems are often called knowledge based systems. The report expands on the foregoing. Section 1 discusses the architecture of a typical expert system. Section 2 deals with the characteristics that make a problem a suitable candidate for expert system solution. Section 3 surveys current technology, describing some of the software aids available for expert system development. Section 4 discusses the limitations of the latter. The concluding section makes predictions of future trends.

  13. Beyond metformin: safety considerations in the decision-making process for selecting a second medication for type 2 diabetes management: reflections from a diabetes care editors' expert forum.

    PubMed

    Cefalu, William T; Buse, John B; Del Prato, Stefano; Home, Philip D; LeRoith, Derek; Nauck, Michael A; Raz, Itamar; Rosenstock, Julio; Riddle, Matthew C

    2014-09-01

    The trend toward personalized management of diabetes has focused attention on the differences among available pharmacological agents in terms of mechanisms of action, efficacy, and, most important, safety. Clinicians must select from these features to develop individualized therapy regimens. In June 2013, a nine-member Diabetes Care Editors' Expert Forum convened to review safety evidence for six major diabetes drug classes: insulin, sulfonylureas (SUs), thiazolidinediones (TZDs), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, and sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors. This article, an outgrowth of the forum, summarizes well-delineated and theoretical safety concerns related to these drug classes, as well as the panelists' opinions regarding their best use in patients with type 2 diabetes. All of the options appear to have reasonably wide safety margins when used appropriately. Those about which we know the most-metformin, SUs, insulin, and perhaps now also TZDs-are efficacious in most patients and can be placed into a basic initial algorithm. However, these agents leave some clinical needs unmet. Selecting next steps is a more formidable process involving newer agents that are understood less well and for which there are unresolved questions regarding risk versus benefit in certain populations. Choosing a specific agent is not as important as implementing some form of early intervention and advancing rapidly to some form of combination therapy as needed. When all options are relatively safe given the benefits they confer, therapeutic decision making must rely on a personalized approach, taking into account patients' clinical circumstances, phenotype, pathophysiological defects, preferences, abilities, and costs.

  14. Characteristics and classification of nanoparticles: expert Delphi survey.

    PubMed

    Berube, David; Cummings, Christopher; Cacciatore, Michael; Scheufele, Dietram; Kalin, Jason

    2011-06-01

    Research needs assessment regarding environmental health and safety (EHS) of nanoparticles is problematic. Generating benchmark data to assess research and policy initiatives seems daunting. This study's findings present more granular and qualitative assessments of expert preferences and concerns. This three-round Delphi study elicits expert estimations of problematic nanoparticle characteristics and classifications from a sample of nanoscience experts in chemistry, EHS policy, engineering, environmental toxicology, and human toxicology (n = 18). The Delphi method is a forecasting tool designed for expert evaluation of events under high degrees of uncertainty. Results demonstrate high concordance indicating favorable consensus among the sample concerning characteristics and classifications of nanoparticles that are potentially or actually problematic to EHS. These findings establish a benchmark for future investigations of expert preferences and concerns.

  15. Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

    SciTech Connect

    Fine, T.L.

    1980-04-01

    This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context.

  16. A Review of Expertise and Judgment Processes for Risk Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    R. L. Boring

    2007-06-01

    A major challenge of risk and reliability analysis for human errors or hardware failures is the need to enlist expert opinion in areas for which adequate operational data are not available. Experts enlisted in this capacity provide probabilistic estimates of reliability, typically comprised of a measure of central tendency and uncertainty bounds. While formal guidelines for expert elicitation are readily available, they largely fail to provide a theoretical basis for expertise and judgment. This paper reviews expertise and judgment in the context of risk analysis; overviews judgment biases, the role of training, and multivariate judgments; and provides guidance on the appropriate use of atomistic and holistic judgment processes.

  17. Expert System Development Methodology (ESDM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sary, Charisse; Gilstrap, Lewey; Hull, Larry G.

    1990-01-01

    The Expert System Development Methodology (ESDM) provides an approach to developing expert system software. Because of the uncertainty associated with this process, an element of risk is involved. ESDM is designed to address the issue of risk and to acquire the information needed for this purpose in an evolutionary manner. ESDM presents a life cycle in which a prototype evolves through five stages of development. Each stage consists of five steps, leading to a prototype for that stage. Development may proceed to a conventional development methodology (CDM) at any time if enough has been learned about the problem to write requirements. ESDM produces requirements so that a product may be built with a CDM. ESDM is considered preliminary because is has not yet been applied to actual projects. It has been retrospectively evaluated by comparing the methods used in two ongoing expert system development projects that did not explicitly choose to use this methodology but which provided useful insights into actual expert system development practices and problems.

  18. Benchmarking expert system tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Riley, Gary

    1988-01-01

    As part of its evaluation of new technologies, the Artificial Intelligence Section of the Mission Planning and Analysis Div. at NASA-Johnson has made timing tests of several expert system building tools. Among the production systems tested were Automated Reasoning Tool, several versions of OPS5, and CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System), an expert system builder developed by the AI section. Also included in the test were a Zetalisp version of the benchmark along with four versions of the benchmark written in Knowledge Engineering Environment, an object oriented, frame based expert system tool. The benchmarks used for testing are studied.

  19. Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

    2016-05-01

    Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert

  20. Heat exchanger expert system logic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cormier, R.

    1988-01-01

    The reduction is described of the operation and fault diagnostics of a Deep Space Network heat exchanger to a rule base by the application of propositional calculus to a set of logic statements. The value of this approach lies in the ease of converting the logic and subsequently implementing it on a computer as an expert system. The rule base was written in Process Intelligent Control software.

  1. Safety organizations and experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mandel, G.; Rubinstein, R. I.; Pinto, J. J.; Meschkow, S. Z.

    1977-01-01

    Handbook lists organizations and experts in specific, well defined areas of safety technology. Special emphasis is given to relevant safety information sources on aircraft fire hazards and aircraft interior flammability.

  2. CONSTRUAL PROCESSES IN PREFERENCE ELICITATION. (R824706)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  3. A new way to ask the experts: Rating radioactive waste risks

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, R.A.

    1996-11-08

    The possible risks of a proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain include the dozen or more young volcanos near by. Now some earth scientists have a new approach to evaluating hazards accounting for uncertainty at every step - `expert elicitation.` This pulls together a panel of experts, carefully assesses the uncertainties of each of their views then mathematically combines their risk estimates along with the accompanying uncertainties. The article goes on to describe just such a panel which considered seismic hazards to Yucca Mountain, how they came to their conclusions, the arguments about the conclusions, and the future of expert elicitation in evaluating the risks of nuclear waste disposal.

  4. Expert systems - 1987

    SciTech Connect

    Walker, T.C.; Miller, R.K.

    1987-01-01

    This is the 1987 updated version of expert systems which includes diverse areas such as CAD/CAM, business management, robotics, welding, computer hardware and software support, electronic design, medicine, insurance, transportation, and maintenance. AI Language Compilers are also inventoried. This handbook is designed to give an overview of the entire field and to assist the reader in sorting through the hundreds of expert systems which are developed to identify cost-effective tools and applications for in-house implementation.

  5. Sherlock Holmes: an expert's view of expertise.

    PubMed

    André, Didierjean; Fernand, Gobet

    2008-02-01

    In recent years, there has been an intense research effort to understand the cognitive processes and structures underlying expert behaviour. Work in different fields, including scientific domains, sports, games and mnemonics, has shown that there are vast differences in perceptual abilities between experts and novices, and that these differences may underpin other cognitive differences in learning, memory and problem solving. In this article, we evaluate the progress made in the last years through the eyes of an outstanding, albeit fictional, expert: Sherlock Holmes. We first use the Sherlock Holmes character to illustrate expert processes as described by current research and theories. In particular, the role of perception, as well as the nature and influence of expert knowledge, are all present in the description of Conan Doyle's hero. In the second part of the article, we discuss a number of issues that current research on expertise has barely addressed. These gaps include, for example, several forms of reasoning, the influence of emotions on cognition, and the effect of age on experts' knowledge and cognitive processes. Thus, although nearly 120-year-old, Conan Doyle's books show remarkable illustrations of expert behaviour, including the coverage of themes that have mostly been overlooked by current research.

  6. Simplifying Probability Elicitation and Uncertainty Modeling in Bayesian Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Paulson, Patrick R; Carroll, Thomas E; Sivaraman, Chitra; Neorr, Peter A; Unwin, Stephen D; Hossain, Shamina S

    2011-04-16

    In this paper we contribute two methods that simplify the demands of knowledge elicitation for particular types of Bayesian networks. The first method simplify the task of providing probabilities when the states that a random variable takes can be described by a new, fully ordered state set in which a state implies all the preceding states. The second method leverages Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to provide a way for the expert to express the degree of ignorance that they feel about the estimates being provided.

  7. Cost estimation: An expert-opinion approach. [cost analysis of research projects using the Delphi method (forecasting)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buffalano, C.; Fogleman, S.; Gielecki, M.

    1976-01-01

    A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

  8. CSIR at TREC 2008 Expert Search Task: Modeling Expert Evidence in Expert Search

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-11-01

    CSIR at TREC 2008 Expert Search Task: Modeling Expert Evidence in Expert Search Jiepu Jiang1, Wei Lu1, Haozhen Zhao2 1 Center for Studies of...AND SUBTITLE CSIR at TREC 2008 Expert Search Task: Modeling Expert Evidence in Expert Search 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM...15. J. Jiang, W. Lu, D. Liu. CSIR at TREC 2007. In Proceedings of the 16th Text REtrieval Conference (TREC 2007), 2007. 16. J. Jiang, W. Lu. IR

  9. Avionic expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Golshani, Forouzan

    1988-01-01

    At the heart of any intelligent flight control system, there is a knowledge based expert system. The efficiency of these knowledge bases is one of the major factors in the success of aviation and space control systems. In the future, the speed and the capabilities of the expert system and their underlying data base(s) will be the limiting factors in the ability to build more accurate real time space controllers. A methodology is proposed for design and construction of such expert systems. It is noted that existing expert systems are inefficient (slow) in dealing with nontrivial real world situations that involve a vast collection of data. However, current data bases, which are fast in handling large amounts of data, cannot carry out intelligent tasks normally expected from an expert system. The system presented provides the power of deduction (reasoning) along with the efficient mechanisms for management of large data bases. In the system, both straight forward evaluation procedures and sophisticated inference mechanisms coexist. The design methodology is based on mathematics and logic, which ensures the correctness of the final product.

  10. Nickel hydrogen battery expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shiva, Sajjan G.

    1991-01-01

    The Hubble Telescope Battery Testbed at MSFC uses the Nickel Cadmium (NiCd) Battery Expert System (NICBES-2) which supports the evaluation of performance of Hubble Telescope spacecraft batteries and provides alarm diagnosis and action advice. NICBES-2 provides a reasoning system along with a battery domain knowledge base to achieve this battery health management function. An effort is summarized which was used to modify NICBES-2 to accommodate Nickel Hydrogen (NiH2) battery environment now in MSFC testbed. The NICBES-2 is implemented on a Sun Microsystem and is written in SunOS C and Quintus Prolog. The system now operates in a multitasking environment. NICBES-2 spawns three processes: serial port process (SPP); data handler process (DHP); and the expert system process (ESP) in order to process the telemetry data and provide the status and action advice. NICBES-2 performs orbit data gathering, data evaluation, alarm diagnosis and action advice and status and history display functions. The adaptation of NICBES-2 to work with NiH2 battery environment required modification to all of the three component processes.

  11. Validation of expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stachowitz, Rolf A.; Combs, Jacqueline B.

    1988-01-01

    The validation of expert systems (ESs) has only recently become an active AI research topic. Current approaches have concentrated mainly on the validation of rule properties of such systems. The efforts presented improves on current methods by also exploiting the structural and semantic information of such systems. To increase programmer productivity, more and more companies have begun exploiting the advent of AI technology by developing applications using ES shells or other AI-based high level program generators. The architecture, functionality, and future goals of Expert Systems Validation are described along with the features that have been implemented for and in Automated Reasoning Tool, the ES shell presented.

  12. Intelligent interfaces for expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Villarreal, James A.; Wang, Lui

    1988-01-01

    Vital to the success of an expert system is an interface to the user which performs intelligently. A generic intelligent interface is being developed for expert systems. This intelligent interface was developed around the in-house developed Expert System for the Flight Analysis System (ESFAS). The Flight Analysis System (FAS) is comprised of 84 configuration controlled FORTRAN subroutines that are used in the preflight analysis of the space shuttle. In order to use FAS proficiently, a person must be knowledgeable in the areas of flight mechanics, the procedures involved in deploying a certain payload, and an overall understanding of the FAS. ESFAS, still in its developmental stage, is taking into account much of this knowledge. The generic intelligent interface involves the integration of a speech recognizer and synthesizer, a preparser, and a natural language parser to ESFAS. The speech recognizer being used is capable of recognizing 1000 words of connected speech. The natural language parser is a commercial software package which uses caseframe instantiation in processing the streams of words from the speech recognizer or the keyboard. The systems configuration is described along with capabilities and drawbacks.

  13. Robot environment expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Potter, J. L.

    1985-01-01

    The Robot Environment Expert System uses a hexidecimal tree data structure to model a complex robot environment where not only the robot arm moves, but also the robot itself and other objects may move. The hextree model allows dynamic updating, collision avoidance and path planning over time, to avoid moving objects.

  14. Computers Simulate Human Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roberts, Steven K.

    1983-01-01

    Discusses recent progress in artificial intelligence in such narrowly defined areas as medical and electronic diagnosis. Also discusses use of expert systems, man-machine communication problems, novel programing environments (including comments on LISP and LISP machines), and types of knowledge used (factual, heuristic, and meta-knowledge). (JN)

  15. Expert Cold Structure Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atkins, T.; Demuysere, P.

    2011-05-01

    The EXPERT Program is funded by ESA. The objective of the EXPERT mission is to perform a sub-orbital flight during which measurements of critical aero- thermodynamic phenomena will be obtained by using state-of-the-art instrumentation. As part of the EXPERT Flight Segment, the responsibility of the Cold Structure Development Design, Manufacturing and Validation was committed to the Belgian industrial team SONACA/SABCA. The EXPERT Cold Structure includes the Launcher Adapter, the Bottom Panel, the Upper Panel, two Cross Panels and the Parachute Bay. An additional Launcher Adapter was manufactured for the separation tests. The selected assembly definition and manufacturing technologies ( machined parts and sandwich panels) were dictated classically by the mass and stiffness, but also by the CoG location and the sensitive separation interface. Used as support for the various on-board equipment, the Cold Structure is fixed to but thermally uncoupled from the PM 1000 thermal shield. It is protect on its bottom panel by a thermal blanket. As it is a protoflight, analysis was the main tool for the verification. Low level stiffness and modal analysis tests have also been performed on the Cold Structure equipped with its ballast. It allowed to complete its qualification and to prepare SONACA/SABCA support for the system dynamic tests foreseen in 2011. The structure was finally coated with a thermal control black painting and delivered on time to Thales Alenia Space-Italy end of March 201.

  16. Diet expert subsystem for CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yendler, Boris S.; Nguyen, Thoi K.; Waleh, Ahmad

    1991-01-01

    An account is given of the mathematical basis of a diet-controlling expert system, designated 'Ceres' for the human crews of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). The Ceres methodology can furnish both steady-state and dynamic diet solutions; the differences between Ceres and a conventional nutritional-modeling method is illustrated by the case of a three-component, potato-wheat-soybean food system. Attention is given to the role of food processing in furnishing flexibility in diet-planning management. Crew diet solutions based on simple optimizations are not necessarily the most suitable for optimum CELSS operation.

  17. Cancer risk elicitation and communication: lessons from the psychology of risk perception.

    PubMed

    Klein, William M P; Stefanek, Michael E

    2007-01-01

    Cancer risk perceptions are a key predictor of risk-reduction practices, health behaviors, and processing of cancer information. Nevertheless, patients and the general public (as well as health care providers) exhibit a number of errors and biases in the way they think about risk, such that their risk perceptions and decisions deviate greatly from those prescribed by normative decision models and by experts in risk assessment. For example, people are more likely to engage in screening behaviors such as mammography when faced with loss-based messages than gain-framed messages, and they often ignore the base rate of a given disease when assessing their own risk of obtaining this disease. In this article, we review many of the psychological processes that underlie risk perception and discuss how these processes lead to such deviations. Among these processes are difficulties with use of numerical information (innumeracy), cognitive processes (eg, use of time-saving heuristics), motivational factors (eg, loss and regret aversion), and emotion. We conclude with suggestions for future research in the area, as well as implications for improving the elicitation and communication of personal cancer risk.

  18. Multiple faces elicit augmented neural activity

    PubMed Central

    Puce, Aina; McNeely, Marie E.; Berrebi, Michael E.; Thompson, James C.; Hardee, Jillian; Brefczynski-Lewis, Julie

    2013-01-01

    How do our brains respond when we are being watched by a group of people?Despite the large volume of literature devoted to face processing, this question has received very little attention. Here we measured the effects on the face-sensitive N170 and other ERPs to viewing displays of one, two and three faces in two experiments. In Experiment 1, overall image brightness and contrast were adjusted to be constant, whereas in Experiment 2 local contrast and brightness of individual faces were not manipulated. A robust positive-negative-positive (P100-N170-P250) ERP complex and an additional late positive ERP, the P400, were elicited to all stimulus types. As the number of faces in the display increased, N170 amplitude increased for both stimulus sets, and latency increased in Experiment 2. P100 latency and P250 amplitude were affected by changes in overall brightness and contrast, but not by the number of faces in the display per se. In Experiment 1 when overall brightness and contrast were adjusted to be constant, later ERP (P250 and P400) latencies showed differences as a function of hemisphere. Hence, our data indicate that N170 increases its magnitude when multiple faces are seen, apparently impervious to basic low-level stimulus features including stimulus size. Outstanding questions remain regarding category-sensitive neural activity that is elicited to viewing multiple items of stimulus categories other than faces. PMID:23785327

  19. Bioethics for Technical Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asano, Shigetaka

    Along with rapidly expanding applications of life science and technology, technical experts have been implicated more and more often with ethical, social, and legal problems than before. It should be noted that in this background there are scientific and social uncertainty elements which are inevitable during the progress of life science in addition to the historically-established social unreliability to scientists and engineers. In order to solve these problems, therefore, we should establish the social governance with ‘relief’ and ‘reliance’ which enables for both citizens and engineers to share the awareness of the issues, to design social orders and criterions based on hypothetical sense of values for bioethics, to carry out practical use management of each subject carefully, and to improve the sense of values from hypothetical to universal. Concerning these measures, the technical experts can learn many things from the present performance in the medical field.

  20. Make yourself an expert.

    PubMed

    Leonard, Dorothy; Barton, Gavin; Barton, Michelle

    2013-04-01

    Almost every organization has people it can't do without--specialists with "deep smarts," who are the go-to experts on critical issues. But because their knowledge is experienced-based, it's often instinctive and unarticulated, and never gets passed on. Capturing it is a challenge for both the organization and for colleagues who wish to become in-house authorities themselves. This article offers a methodical system for acquiring deep smarts from an expert. It involves observing that person extensively to understand what makes him successful, practicing the behaviors he exhibits on your own, partnering with him to solve problems, and ultimately taking responsibility for some of his tasks. Describing the experiences of one executive as she takes this journey with a mentor, the authors show how you too can gain the wisdom that will make you indispensable to your firm.

  1. Expert Systems Development Methodology

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-07-28

    two volumes. Volume 1 is the Development Metodology and Volume 2 is an Evaluation Methodology containing methods for evaluation, validation and...system are written in an English -like language which almost anyone can understand. Thus programming in rule based systems can become "programming for...computers and others have little understanding about how computers work. The knowledge engineer must therefore be willing and able to teach the expert

  2. Key attributes of expert NRL referees.

    PubMed

    Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna

    2017-05-01

    Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.

  3. Empirical analysis for expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Politakis, P.

    1985-01-01

    This book describes an AI system designed to improve the development of expert systems for classification-type problems. A system referred to as ''seek'' that gives interactive advice about rule refinement in the design of an expert system is presented. The system develops techniques to integrate dual sources of expert knowledge efficiently. The techniques are used to develop a diagnostic consultant for rheumatology.

  4. Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

    2016-09-01

    Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

  5. The imported forensic expert.

    PubMed

    Larson, C P

    1980-09-01

    A review of the experiences of one of the pioneer forensic pathologists in the United States offers an interesting insight into the possibilities of private forensic pathology in America. The author's experience includes serving as President of the National Boxing Association and the International Boxing Association, during which time he made many improvements in ring safety. His research into several areas of cases of product liability offer an insight to the wide scope of the potential of the forensic expert. This presentation reviews his activities in realms widely afield from medicine.

  6. The expert Neandertal mind.

    PubMed

    Wynn, Thomas; Coolidge, Frederick L

    2004-04-01

    Cognitive neuropsychology, cognitive anthropology, and cognitive archaeology are combined to yield a picture of Neandertal cognition in which expert performance via long-term working memory is the centerpiece of problem solving. This component of Neandertal cognition appears to have been modern in scope. However, Neandertals' working memory capacity, which is the ability to hold a variety of information in active attention, may not have been as large as that of modern humans. This characteristic helps us understand features of the archaeological record, such as the rarity of innovation, and allows us to make empirically based speculations about Neandertal personality.

  7. The imported forensic expert

    SciTech Connect

    Larson, C.P.

    1980-09-01

    A review of the experiences of one of the pioneer forensic pathologists in the United States offers an interesting insight into the possibilities of private forensic pathology in America. The author's experience includes serving as President of the National Boxing Association and the International Boxing Association, during which time he made many improvements in ring safety. His research into several areas of cases of product liability offer an insight to the wide scope of the potential of the forensic expert. This presentation reviews his activities in realms widely afield from medicine.

  8. Photo-Elicitation: Reflexivity on Method, Analysis, and Graphic Portraits

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richard, Veronica M.; Lahman, Maria K. E.

    2015-01-01

    In this methodological discussion, the authors detail and reflect on the processes of using photo-elicitation interviewing as a way to align with positive qualitative methodologies, to gain access to participant beliefs and values, and to highlight participant voices through their choices of words and visuals. A review of the literature and an…

  9. Eliciting Design Patterns for E-Learning Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Retalis, Symeon; Georgiakakis, Petros; Dimitriadis, Yannis

    2006-01-01

    Design pattern creation, especially in the e-learning domain, is a highly complex process that has not been sufficiently studied and formalized. In this paper, we propose a systematic pattern development cycle, whose most important aspects focus on reverse engineering of existing systems in order to elicit features that are cross-validated through…

  10. The group expert evaluation of the metrological assurance of electric power measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velychko, O. M.; Karpenko, S. R.

    2016-11-01

    The results of group expert evaluation of the metrological assurance of electric power measurements are considered. Evaluated competence of experts on metrology was taken into account during group expert evaluation. Special software and universal software are used for processing received expert data.

  11. Overproduction timing errors in expert dancers.

    PubMed

    Minvielle-Moncla, Joëlle; Audiffren, Michel; Macar, Françoise; Vallet, Cécile

    2008-07-01

    The authors investigated how expert dancers achieve accurate timing under various conditions. They designed the conditions to interfere with the dancers' attention to time and to test the explanation of the interference effect provided in the attentional model of time processing. Participants were 17 expert contemporary dancers who performed a freely chosen duration while walking and executing a bilateral cyclic arm movement over a given distance. The dancers reproduced that duration in different situations of interference. The process yielded temporal overproductions, validating the attentional model and extending its application to expert populations engaged in complex motor situations. The finding that the greatest overproduction occurred in the transfer-with-improvisation condition suggests that improvisation within a time deadline requires specific training.

  12. The BRIEFER project: using expert systems as theory construction tools.

    PubMed

    Gingerich, W J; de Shazer, S

    1991-06-01

    This article describes the development of BRIEFER I and BRIEFER II, expert systems that advise the therapist on selecting, designing, and developing an intervention at the end of the first therapy session. The process of developing expert systems has aided us in describing what brief therapists do, in modeling the intervention design process, and in training brief therapists.

  13. How experts gain influence.

    PubMed

    Mikes, Anette; Hall, Matthew; Millo, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    In theory, the risk management groups of two British banks--Saxon and Anglo--had the same influence in their organizations. But in practice, they did not: Saxon's was engaged in critical work throughout the bank, while Anglo's had little visibility outside its areas of expertise. In their study of these two financial institutions, the authors identified four competencies--trailblazing, toolmaking, teamwork, and translation--that help functional leaders or groups compete for top management's limited attention and increase their impact. Anglo's risk managers were strong in only some of the competencies, but Saxon's were strong in all four. They consistently scanned the internal and external environment for important issues to which they could apply a risk management perspective (trailblazing) and then developed tools--such as quarterly risk reports--that spread their expertise (toolmaking). While controlling the tools' design and implementation, the risk managers incorporated business managers' insights (teamwork) and made sure everyone could understand the findings (translation). Ultimately, experts' roles must fit the organization's strategy and structural needs. In some situations, functional experts can raise their profile by cultivating just two of the competencies. But those who are strong in all four are likely to be the most influential.

  14. An expert system for optimal gear design

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, K.C.

    1988-01-01

    By properly developing the mathematical model, numerical optimization can be used to seek the best solution for a given set of geometric constraints. The process of determining the non-geometric design variables is automated by using symbolic computation. This gear-design system is built according to the AGMA standards and a survey of gear-design experts. The recommendations of gear designers and the information provided by AGMA standards are integrated into knowledge bases and data bases. By providing fast information retrieval and design guidelines, this expert system greatly streamlines the spur gear design process. The concept of separating the design space into geometric and non-geometric variables can also be applied to the design process for general mechanical elements. The expert-system techniques is used to simulate a human designer to optimize the process of determining non-geometric parameters, and the numerical optimization is used to identify for the best geometric solution. The combination of the expert-system technique with numerical optimization essentially eliminates the deficiencies of both methods and thus provides a better way of modeling the engineering design process.

  15. Calculating the Information Content of an Information Process for a Domain Expert Using Shannon's Mathematical Theory of Communication: A Preliminary Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cole, Charles

    1997-01-01

    Discussion of information as a process focuses on a conceptual exercise for calculating the information content of an information process. Topics include Bertram Brookes' fundamental equation; Claude Shannon's mathematical theory of communication; set of a priori alternatives; knowledge structures; and an example of an archaeologist's information…

  16. Differential diagnosis of allergic rhinitis and sinusitis an expert system

    SciTech Connect

    Creider, R.D.; Sundar Singh, P.S.

    1996-12-31

    Nasal congestion is a common problem for many people. It is a symptom of chronic sinusitis and also a characteristic of allergic rhinitis. Individuals frequently confuse sinusitis and allergic rhinitis. The expert system described below will diagnose the problem to be either rhinitis or sinusitis. In this paper we describe the expert system, the need for such an expert system and the process of developing the system.

  17. Assessing Risks from Emerging Contaminants: Using Expert Elicitation and Group Decisions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-06-01

    C4 -Cost to Complete C5 -Property Transfer and Re-Use Phase I Impact Assessments Completed  Tungsten  Tungsten alloy  Tetrachloroethylene (PCE...TCE)  Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6)  Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)  1,2,3-trichloropropane (TCP)  N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA

  18. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J. C., LLNL

    1998-02-26

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  19. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: input on corrosion of CRM alloy C-22

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J. C.,LLNL

    1998-03-30

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 1O. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  20. Three CLIPS-based expert systems for solving engineering problems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parkinson, W. J.; Luger, G. F.; Bretz, R. E.

    1990-01-01

    We have written three expert systems, using the CLIPS PC-based expert system shell. These three expert systems are rule based and are relatively small, with the largest containing slightly less than 200 rules. The first expert system is an expert assistant that was written to help users of the ASPEN computer code choose the proper thermodynamic package to use with their particular vapor-liquid equilibrium problem. The second expert system was designed to help petroleum engineers choose the proper enhanced oil recovery method to be used with a given reservoir. The effectiveness of each technique is highly dependent upon the reservoir conditions. The third expert system is a combination consultant and control system. This system was designed specifically for silicon carbide whisker growth. Silicon carbide whiskers are an extremely strong product used to make ceramic and metal composites. The manufacture of whiskers is a very complicated process. which to date. has defied a good mathematical model. The process was run by experts who had gained their expertise by trial and error. A system of rules was devised by these experts both for procedure setup and for the process control. In this paper we discuss the three problem areas of the design, development and evaluation of the CLIPS-based programs.

  1. Robotics and expert systems. Volume 3

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1987-01-01

    This book presents papers given at a workshop on robotics and expert systems. Topics considered at the conference include: symbolic computation expert systems for software productivity; expert systems, practices; expert systems, methods; and, technology needs and productivity.

  2. Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

  3. Expert system for scheduling simulation lab sessions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lund, Chet

    1990-01-01

    Implementation and results of an expert system used for scheduling session requests for the Systems Engineering Simulator (SES) laboratory at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) are discussed. Weekly session requests are received from astronaut crew trainers, procedures developers, engineering assessment personnel, software developers, and various others who wish to access the computers, scene generators, and other simulation equipment available to them in the SES lab. The expert system under discussion is comprised of a data acquisition portion - two Pascal programs run on a personal computer - and a CLIPS program installed on a minicomputer. A brief introduction to the SES lab and its scheduling background is given. A general overview of the system is provided, followed by a detailed description of the constraint-reduction process and of the scheduler itself. Results from a ten-week trial period using this approach are discussed. Finally, a summary of the expert system's strengths and shortcomings are provided.

  4. Knowledge learning on fuzzy expert neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Hsin-Chia; Shann, J.-J.; Pao, Hsiao-Tien

    1994-03-01

    The proposed fuzzy expert network is an event-driven, acyclic neural network designed for knowledge learning on a fuzzy expert system. Initially, the network is constructed according to a primitive (rough) expert rules including the input and output linguistic variables and values of the system. For each inference rule, it corresponds to an inference network, which contains five types of nodes: Input, Membership-Function, AND, OR, and Defuzzification Nodes. We propose a two-phase learning procedure for the inference network. The first phase is the competitive backpropagation (CBP) training phase, and the second phase is the rule- pruning phase. The CBP learning algorithm in the training phase enables the network to learn the fuzzy rules as precisely as backpropagation-type learning algorithms and yet as quickly as competitive-type learning algorithms. After the CBP training, the rule-pruning process is performed to delete redundant weight connections for simple network structures and yet compatible retrieving performance.

  5. How Expert Advice Influences Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Meshi, Dar; Biele, Guido; Korn, Christoph W.; Heekeren, Hauke R.

    2012-01-01

    People often use expert advice when making decisions in our society, but how we are influenced by this advice has yet to be understood. To address this, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we provided expert and novice advice to participants during an estimation task. Participants reported that they valued expert advice more than novice advice, and activity in the ventral striatum correlated with this valuation, even before decisions with the advice were made. When using advice, participants compared their initial opinion to their advisor’s opinion. This comparison, termed the “opinion difference”, influenced advice utilization and was represented in reward-sensitive brain regions. Finally, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex integrated both the size of the opinion difference and the advisor’s level of expertise, and average activity in this area correlated with mean advice utilization across participants. Taken together, these findings provide neural evidence for how advice engenders behavioral change during the decision-making process. PMID:23185425

  6. An Expert Assistant for Computer Aided Parallelization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jost, Gabriele; Chun, Robert; Jin, Haoqiang; Labarta, Jesus; Gimenez, Judit

    2004-01-01

    The prototype implementation of an expert system was developed to assist the user in the computer aided parallelization process. The system interfaces to tools for automatic parallelization and performance analysis. By fusing static program structure information and dynamic performance analysis data the expert system can help the user to filter, correlate, and interpret the data gathered by the existing tools. Sections of the code that show poor performance and require further attention are rapidly identified and suggestions for improvements are presented to the user. In this paper we describe the components of the expert system and discuss its interface to the existing tools. We present a case study to demonstrate the successful use in full scale scientific applications.

  7. Photo-Elicitation and Visual Semiotics: A Unique Methodology for Studying Inclusion for Children with Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stockall, Nancy

    2013-01-01

    The methodology in this paper discusses the use of photographs as an elicitation strategy that can reveal the thinking processes of participants in a qualitatively rich manner. Photo-elicitation techniques combined with a Piercian semiotic perspective offer a unique method for creating a frame of action for later participant analysis. Illustrative…

  8. Spacecraft environmental anomalies expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koons, H. C.; Gorney, D. J.

    1988-01-01

    A microcomputer-based expert system is being developed at the Aerospace Corporation Space Sciences Laboratory to assist in the diagnosis of satellite anomalies caused by the space environment. The expert system is designed to address anomalies caused by surface charging, bulk charging, single event effects and total radiation dose. These effects depend on the orbit of the satellite, the local environment (which is highly variable), the satellite exposure time and the hardness of the circuits and components of the satellite. The expert system is a rule-based system that uses the Texas Instruments Personal Consultant Plus expert system shell. The completed expert system knowledge base will include 150 to 200 rules, as well as a spacecraft attributes database, an historical spacecraft anomalies database, and a space environment database which is updated in near real-time. Currently, the expert system is undergoing development and testing within the Aerospace Corporation Space Sciences Laboratory.

  9. The Content Validation and Resource Development For a Course in Materials and Processes of Industry Through the Use of NASA Experts at Norfolk State College. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobs, James A.

    In an effort to develop a course in materials and processes of industry at Norfolk State College using Barton Herrscher's model of systematic instruction, a group of 12 NASA-Langley Research Center's (NASA-LRC) research engineers and technicians were recruited. The group acted as consultants in validating the content of the course and aided in…

  10. Estimating Production Potentials: Expert Bias in Applied Decision Making

    SciTech Connect

    Reece, Wendy Jane

    1998-10-01

    A study was conducted to evaluate how workers predict manufacturing production potentials given positively and negatively framed information. Findings indicate the existence of a bias toward positive information and suggest that this bias may be reduced with experience but is never the less maintained. Experts err in the same way non experts do in differentially processing negative and positive information. Additionally, both experts and non experts tend to overestimate production potentials in a positive direction. The authors propose that these biases should be addressed with further research including cross domain analyses and consideration in training, workplace design, and human performance modeling.

  11. System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mieg, Harald A.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

  12. Toward disaster-resilient cities: characterizing resilience of infrastructure systems with expert judgments.

    PubMed

    Chang, Stephanie E; McDaniels, Timothy; Fox, Jana; Dhariwal, Rajan; Longstaff, Holly

    2014-03-01

    Resilient infrastructure systems are essential for cities to withstand and rapidly recover from natural and human-induced disasters, yet electric power, transportation, and other infrastructures are highly vulnerable and interdependent. New approaches for characterizing the resilience of sets of infrastructure systems are urgently needed, at community and regional scales. This article develops a practical approach for analysts to characterize a community's infrastructure vulnerability and resilience in disasters. It addresses key challenges of incomplete incentives, partial information, and few opportunities for learning. The approach is demonstrated for Metro Vancouver, Canada, in the context of earthquake and flood risk. The methodological approach is practical and focuses on potential disruptions to infrastructure services. In spirit, it resembles probability elicitation with multiple experts; however, it elicits disruption and recovery over time, rather than uncertainties regarding system function at a given point in time. It develops information on regional infrastructure risk and engages infrastructure organizations in the process. Information sharing, iteration, and learning among the participants provide the basis for more informed estimates of infrastructure system robustness and recovery that incorporate the potential for interdependent failures after an extreme event. Results demonstrate the vital importance of cross-sectoral communication to develop shared understanding of regional infrastructure disruption in disasters. For Vancouver, specific results indicate that in a hypothetical M7.3 earthquake, virtually all infrastructures would suffer severe disruption of service in the immediate aftermath, with many experiencing moderate disruption two weeks afterward. Electric power, land transportation, and telecommunications are identified as core infrastructure sectors.

  13. Assessing cumulative impacts of forest development on the distribution of furbearers using expert-based habitat modeling.

    PubMed

    Bridger, M C; Johnson, C J; Gillingham, M P

    2016-03-01

    Cumulative impacts of anthropogenic landscape change must be considered when managing and conserving wildlife habitat. Across the central-interior of British Columbia, Canada, industrial activities are altering the habitat of furbearer species. This region has witnessed unprecedented levels of anthropogenic landscape change following rapid development in a number of resource sectors, particularly forestry. Our objective was to create expert-based habitat models for three furbearer species: fisher (Pekania pennanti), Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), and American marten (Martes americana) and quantify habitat change for those species. We recruited 10 biologist and 10 trapper experts and then used the analytical hierarchy process to elicit expert knowledge of habitat variables important to each species. We applied the models to reference landscapes (i.e., registered traplines) in two distinct study areas and then quantified the change in habitat availability from 1990 to 2013. There was strong agreement between expert groups in the choice of habitat variables and associated scores. Where anthropogenic impacts had increased considerably over the study period, the habitat models showed substantial declines in habitat availability for each focal species (78% decline in optimal fisher habitat, 83% decline in optimal lynx habitat, and 79% decline in optimal marten habitat). For those traplines with relatively little forest harvesting, the habitat models showed no substantial change in the availability of habitat over time. The results suggest that habitat for these three furbearer species declined significantly as a result of the cumulative impacts of forest harvesting. Results of this study illustrate the utility of expert knowledge for understanding large-scale patterns of habitat change over long time periods.

  14. Curricula for Media Literacy Education According to International Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fedorov, Alexander; Levitskaya, Anastasia; Camarero, Emma

    2016-01-01

    The article analyzes the results of the international experts' survey regarding the curriculum of media literacy education, which was administrated by the authors in September-October 2015. The expert panel includes specialists actively involved in the real process of media literacy education in schools, universities and other educational…

  15. Figuring the World of Designing: Expert Participation in Elementary Classroom

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kangas, Kaiju; Seitamaa-Hakkarainen, Pirita; Hakkarainen, Kai

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the present article was to analyze the interaction between elementary students and a professional design expert. The expert was present in the classroom, facilitating a collaborative lamp designing process together with the teacher. Using the notion of "figured worlds" (Holland et al. 1998), we explored how learning could be…

  16. The Experiences of Expert Group Work Supervisors: An Exploratory Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Atieno Okech, Jane E.; Rubel, Deborah

    2009-01-01

    Evaluation of group work supervision literature suggests that description of expert group work supervisors' experiences could be useful for expanding existing group work supervision practices and models. This study provided a systematic exploration of the experiences of expert group work supervisors during the supervision process. Results indicate…

  17. Visual emotional context modulates brain potentials elicited by unattended tones.

    PubMed

    Sugimoto, Sayaka; Nittono, Hiroshi; Hori, Tadao

    2007-10-01

    To examine whether brain electrical responses to environmental stimuli were influenced by emotional contexts, event-related potentials (ERPs) elicited by nonstartle probe tones were recorded from 13 student volunteers while they were viewing emotionally positive, neutral, and negative slides of the International Affective Picture System. The auditory stimuli consisted of high-deviant (2000 Hz, p=.08), low-deviant (1050 Hz, p=.08), and standard (1000 Hz, p=.84) tones with a mean onset-to-onset interval of 600 ms. Participants were told to ignore the tones. High-deviant tones elicited a larger N1 (peaking around 100 ms) when participants were viewing negative slides than when viewing positive slides. The amplitude of the P2 elicited by standard tones (peaking around 170 ms) was smaller when participants were viewing positive slides than when viewing negative and neutral slides. The amplitude of the mismatch negativity (150-200 ms) tended to reduce during positive slide presentation, but this difference appeared to be due to reduction of the P2 elicited by standard tones. These findings suggest that visually induced emotional states have a sequential effect on auditory information processing, in that the influence of negative emotion appears at an earlier stage than that of positive emotion.

  18. Evaluation of high-level waste pretreatment processes with an approximate reasoning model

    SciTech Connect

    Bott, T.F.; Eisenhawer, S.W.; Agnew, S.F.

    1999-04-01

    The development of an approximate-reasoning (AR)-based model to analyze pretreatment options for high-level waste is presented. AR methods are used to emulate the processes used by experts in arriving at a judgment. In this paper, the authors first consider two specific issues in applying AR to the analysis of pretreatment options. They examine how to combine quantitative and qualitative evidence to infer the acceptability of a process result using the example of cesium content in low-level waste. They then demonstrate the use of simple physical models to structure expert elicitation and to produce inferences consistent with a problem involving waste particle size effects.

  19. Artificial Intelligence: The Expert Way.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bitter, Gary G.

    1989-01-01

    Discussion of artificial intelligence (AI) and expert systems focuses on their use in education. Characteristics of good expert systems are explained; computer software programs that contain applications of AI are described, highlighting one used to help educators identify learning-disabled students; and the future of AI is discussed. (LRW)

  20. Expert Systems in Reference Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

    1989-01-01

    Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

  1. Expert Systems and Special Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hofmeister, Alan M.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

    The application of artificial intelligence to the problems of education is examined. One of the most promising areas in artificial intelligence is expert systems technology which engages the user in a problem-solving diaglogue. Some of the characteristics that make expert systems "intelligent" are identified and exemplified. The rise of…

  2. Plastic neo-vaginal construction in Mayer-Rokitansky-Küster-Hauser syndrome: an expert opinion paper on the decision-making treatment process

    PubMed Central

    Torres-de la Roche, Luz Angela; Devassy, Rajesh; Gopalakrishnan, Sreelatha; de Wilde, Maya Sophie; Herrmann, Anja; Larbig, Angelika; De Wilde, Rudy Leon

    2016-01-01

    Vaginal agenesis is a congenital anomaly that affects the life of one of each four thousand women around the world. There is a trend that patients request immediate surgical correction, instead of passive vaginal dilatation. Therefore a differentiated counselling should be provided. We present a comparative chart, based on published evidence, with aspect to the available techniques, which will facilitate the decision-making process in the clinical practice. From our point of view, the best results are achieved with techniques that combine the advantages of the minimal-invasive surgery with those derived of the use of peritoneum as covering tissue of the neovagina. Nevertheless there is a lack on interdisciplinary consensus about the best option to restore the physical and sexual quality of life. PMID:26904393

  3. A Knowledge Elicitation Study of Military Planning

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-02-01

    66027-0347 Ba. NAME OF FUNDING/SPONSORING 8b. OFFICE SYMBOL 9. PROCUREMENT INSTRUMENT IDENTIFICATION NUMBER ORPANIZATION U.S. Army Research (If...Method (CDM) has been developed as a knowledge elicitation tool for probing proficient decision making. This report describes the use of CDM during...knowledge elicitation can be used in Army Command and Control (Ce) exercises as a means of understanding decision-making dynamics. Such a tool could

  4. Threat expert system technology advisor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kurrasch, E. R.; Tripp, L. R.

    1987-01-01

    A prototype expert system was developed to determine the feasibility of using expert system technology to enhance the performance and survivability of helicopter pilots in a combat threat environment while flying NOE (Nap of the Earth) missions. The basis for the concept is the potential of using an Expert System Advisor to reduce the extreme overloading of the pilot who flies NOE mission below treetop level at approximately 40 knots while performing several other functions. The ultimate goal is to develop a Threat Expert System Advisor which provides threat information and advice that are better than even a highly experienced copilot. The results clearly show that the NOE pilot needs all the help in decision aiding and threat situation awareness that he can get. It clearly shows that heuristics are important and that an expert system for combat NOE helicopter missions can be of great help to the pilot in complex threat situations and in making decisions.

  5. Engineering monitoring expert system's developer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lo, Ching F.

    1991-01-01

    This research project is designed to apply artificial intelligence technology including expert systems, dynamic interface of neural networks, and hypertext to construct an expert system developer. The developer environment is specifically suited to building expert systems which monitor the performance of ground support equipment for propulsion systems and testing facilities. The expert system developer, through the use of a graphics interface and a rule network, will be transparent to the user during rule constructing and data scanning of the knowledge base. The project will result in a software system that allows its user to build specific monitoring type expert systems which monitor various equipments used for propulsion systems or ground testing facilities and accrues system performance information in a dynamic knowledge base.

  6. Are moral philosophers moral experts?

    PubMed

    Gesang, Bernward

    2010-05-01

    In this paper I examine the question of whether ethicists are moral experts. I call people moral experts if their moral judgments are correct with high probability and for the right reasons. I defend three theses, while developing a version of the coherence theory of moral justification based on the differences between moral and nonmoral experience: The answer to the question of whether there are moral experts depends on the answer to the question of how to justify moral judgments. Deductivism and the coherence theory both provide some support for the opinion that moral experts exist in some way. I maintain - within the framework of a certain kind of coherence theory - that moral philosophers are 'semi-experts'.

  7. Basic emotions elicited by odors and pictures.

    PubMed

    Croy, Ilona; Olgun, Selda; Joraschky, Peter

    2011-12-01

    The sense of olfaction is often reported to have a special relationship with emotional processing. Memories triggered by olfactory cues often have a very emotional load. On the other hand, basic negative or positive emotional states should be sufficient to cover the most significant functions of the olfactory system including ingestion, hazard avoidance, and social communication. Thus, we investigated whether different basic emotions can be evoked in healthy people through the sense of olfaction. We asked 119 participants which odor evokes one of the six basic emotions (happiness, disgust, anger, anxiety, sadness, and surprise); another 97 participants were asked about pictures evoking those emotions. The results showed that almost every participant could name an olfactory elicitor for happiness or disgust. Olfactory elicitors of anxiety were reported less frequently, but they were still reported by three-quarters of the participants. However, for sadness and anger only about half of the participants reported an olfactory elicitor, whereas significantly more named a visual cue. Olfactory emotion elicitors were mainly related to the classes of culture, plants, and food, and visual emotion elicitors were largely related to humans. This data supports the hypothesis that in the vast majority of people, few differentiated emotions can be elicited through the olfactory channel. These emotions are happiness, disgust, and anxiety.

  8. Expert system training and control based on the fuzzy relation matrix

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ren, Jie; Sheridan, T. B.

    1991-01-01

    Fuzzy knowledge, that for which the terms of reference are not crisp but overlapped, seems to characterize human expertise. This can be shown from the fact that an experienced human operator can control some complex plants better than a computer can. Proposed here is fuzzy theory to build a fuzzy expert relation matrix (FERM) from given rules or/and examples, either in linguistic terms or in numerical values to mimic human processes of perception and decision making. The knowledge base is codified in terms of many implicit fuzzy rules. Fuzzy knowledge thus codified may also be compared with explicit rules specified by a human expert. It can also provide a basis for modeling the human operator and allow comparison of what a human operator says to what he does in practice. Two experiments were performed. In the first, control of liquid in a tank, demonstrates how the FERM knowledge base is elicited and trained. The other shows how to use a FERM, build up from linguistic rules, and to control an inverted pendulum without a dynamic model.

  9. Being an expert witness in geomorphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Edward A.

    2015-02-01

    Gathering your own data and coming to your own conclusion through scientific research and discovery is the most important principle to remember when being an expert witness in geomorphology. You can only be questioned in deposition and trial in your area of expertise. You are qualified as an expert by education, knowledge, and experience. You will have absolutely nothing to fear from cross-examination if you are prepared and confident about your work. Being an expert witness requires good communication skills. When you make a presentation, speak clearly and avoid jargon, especially when addressing a jury. Keep in mind that when you take on a case that may eventually go to court as a lawsuit, the entire process, with appeals and so forth, can take several years. Therefore, being an expert may become a long-term commitment of your time and energy. You may be hired by either side in a dispute, but your job is the same - determine the scientific basis of the case and explain your scientific reasoning to the lawyers, the judge, and the jury. Your work, including pre-trial investigations, often determines what the case will be based on. The use of science in the discovery part of an investigation is demonstrated from a California case involving the Ventura River, where building of a flood control levee restricted flow to a narrower channel, increasing unit stream power as well as potential for bank erosion and landsliding.

  10. Expert system prototype developments for NASA-KSC business and engineering applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ragusa, James M.; Gonzalez, Avelino J.

    1988-01-01

    Prototype expert systems developed for a variety of NASA projects in the business/management and engineering domains are discussed. Business-related problems addressed include an assistant for simulating launch vehicle processing, a plan advisor for the acquisition of automated data processing equipment, and an expert system for the identification of customer requirements. Engineering problems treated include an expert system for detecting potential ignition sources in LOX and gaseous-oxygen transportation systems and an expert system for hazardous-gas detection.

  11. Metaphors of Distress: Photo-Elicitation Enhances a Discourse Analysis of Parents' Accounts.

    PubMed

    Kantrowitz-Gordon, Ira; Vandermause, Roxanne

    2016-07-01

    In research on sensitive topics, photo-elicitation can be a profound aid to data collection and interpretation processes. Photo-elicitation methods were used in this manner in a discourse analysis of parents' distress at least 6 months after preterm birth. After an initial interview, participants were asked to take digital photographs representing their distress and to return for a second interview to discuss the photographs. The elicited photo representations supported participants' engagement with their current or past distress and generated new meanings from the reappraisal of old photographs. Photo-elicitation demonstrated the embodiment of parents' distress in the child and the placement of distress in specific locations. Photographs of documents showed the power of the written word in generating and maintaining distress. Participants used existing photographs from their child's photo history to generate rich metaphors for their distress as parents. These findings have implications for enhancing interpretive health research by incorporating photo-elicitation methods.

  12. Comparison of elicitation methods for moral and affective beliefs in the theory of planned behaviour.

    PubMed

    Dean, M; Arvola, A; Vassallo, M; Lähteenmäki, L; Raats, M M; Saba, A; Shepherd, R

    2006-09-01

    Although the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) has been applied successfully in the area of food choice, it has been criticized for its pure utilitarian approach to the factors determining behaviour. Despite the increase in predictive power of the model with added components such as affective attitude and moral and ethical concerns, in most studies the elicitation process still only addresses people's utilitarian beliefs about the behaviour with little attention paid to other aspects. This study compares the traditional method of elicitation of advantages and disadvantages with two other methods (word association and open-ended) in the elicitations of beliefs, attitudes and moral concerns in relation to the consumption of organic foods. Results show the traditional method to be best for eliciting cognitive beliefs, open-ended emotion task for eliciting emotional beliefs and open-ended beliefs task best for moral concerns. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed.

  13. How lawyers view psychiatric experts.

    PubMed

    Reid, William H; Skip Simpson, J D

    2012-11-01

    Good lawyers look for integrity in their expert consultants and expert witnesses. They need truthful, accurate information to help them assess and frame cases, win or settle them favorably, and/or withdraw when the case has little merit. Experts should be well qualified to review, interpret, and eventually testify credibly about their portions of the case. They should be able to work with lawyers in the lawyers' own arenas (e.g., courts, hearings) and to convey their opinions to others, such as juries, clearly and without unnecessary distractions.

  14. Filtering information from human experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendel, Max B.; Sheridan, Thomas B.

    1989-01-01

    The authors propose a model, or filter, for debiasing opinions from multiple experts and combining them into a single consistent estimate of some variable of interest. A distinguishing feature of the approach consists of making the calibration of experts an integral part of filtering. This enables the filter to learn from previous experience with the experts. The theoretical development takes a Bayesian perspective, using de Finetti's (1964) notion of exchangeability. Experimental results with a preliminary computer implementation of the filter show that its estimates are better than those from comparable filters that do not involve calibration.

  15. Expert Witness: A system for developing expert medical testimony

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lewandowski, Raymond; Perkins, David; Leasure, David

    1994-01-01

    Expert Witness in an expert system designed to assist attorneys and medical experts in determining the merit of medical malpractice claims in the area of obstetrics. It substitutes the time of the medical expert with the time of a paralegal assistant guided by the expert system during the initial investigation of the medical records and patient interviews. The product of the system is a narrative transcript containing important data, immediate conclusions from the data, and overall conclusions of the case that the attorney and medical expert use to make decisions about whether and how to proceed with the case. The transcript may also contain directives for gathering additional information needed for the case. The system is a modified heuristic classifier and is implemented using over 600 CLIPS rules together with a C-based user interface. The data abstraction and solution refinement are implemented directly using forward chaining production and matching. The use of CLIPS and C is essential to delivering a system that runs on a generic PC platform. The direct implementation in CLIPS together with locality of inference ensures that the system will scale gracefully. Two years of use has revealed no errors in the reasoning.

  16. Spacecraft command and control using expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Norcross, Scott; Grieser, William H.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a product called the Intelligent Mission Toolkit (IMT), which was created to meet the changing demands of the spacecraft command and control market. IMT is a command and control system built upon an expert system. Its primary functions are to send commands to the spacecraft and process telemetry data received from the spacecraft. It also controls the ground equipment used to support the system, such as encryption gear, and telemetry front-end equipment. Add-on modules allow IMT to control antennas and antenna interface equipment. The design philosophy for IMT is to utilize available commercial products wherever possible. IMT utilizes Gensym's G2 Real-time Expert System as the core of the system. G2 is responsible for overall system control, spacecraft commanding control, and spacecraft telemetry analysis and display. Other commercial products incorporated into IMT include the SYBASE relational database management system and Loral Test and Integration Systems' System 500 for telemetry front-end processing.

  17. Spacecraft command and control using expert systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norcross, Scott; Grieser, William H.

    1994-11-01

    This paper describes a product called the Intelligent Mission Toolkit (IMT), which was created to meet the changing demands of the spacecraft command and control market. IMT is a command and control system built upon an expert system. Its primary functions are to send commands to the spacecraft and process telemetry data received from the spacecraft. It also controls the ground equipment used to support the system, such as encryption gear, and telemetry front-end equipment. Add-on modules allow IMT to control antennas and antenna interface equipment. The design philosophy for IMT is to utilize available commercial products wherever possible. IMT utilizes Gensym's G2 Real-time Expert System as the core of the system. G2 is responsible for overall system control, spacecraft commanding control, and spacecraft telemetry analysis and display. Other commercial products incorporated into IMT include the SYBASE relational database management system and Loral Test and Integration Systems' System 500 for telemetry front-end processing.

  18. Personalised, predictive and preventive medication process in hospitals—still rather missing: professional opinion survey on medication safety in Czech hospitals (based on professional opinions of recognised Czech health care experts)

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The survey had the following aims: (1) to rationalise the hypothesis that risks and losses relating to medication process' errors in Czech hospitals are at least comparable with the other developed countries and EU countries especially, (2) to get a valid professional opinion/estimate on the rate of adverse drug events happening in Czech hospitals, (3) to point out that medication errors represent real and serious risks and (4) to induce the hospital management readiness to execute fundamental changes and improvements to medication processes. We read through a lot of studies inquiring into hospitals' medication safety. Then, we selected the studies which brought reliable findings and formulated credible conclusions. Finally, we addressed reputable Czech experts in health care and asked them structured questions whether the studies' findings and conclusions corresponded with our respondents' own experience in the Czech hospital clinical practice and what their own estimates of adverse drug events' consequences were like. Based on the reputable Czech health care expert opinions/estimates, the rate of a false drug administration may exceed 5%, and over 7% of those cause serious health complications to Czech hospital inpatients. Measured by an average length of stay (ALOS), the Czech inpatients, harmed by a false drug administration, stay in hospital for more than 2.6 days longer than necessary. Any positive changes to a currently used, traditional, ways of drug dispensing and administration, along with computerisation, automation, electronic traceability, validation, or verification, must well pay off. Referring to the above results, it seems to be wise to follow the EU priorities in health and health care improvements. Thus, a right usage of the financial means provided by the EC—in terms of its new health programmes for the period 2014–2020 (e.g. Horizon 2020)—has a good chance of a good result in doing the right things right, at the right time and in the

  19. Stereoscopy Amplifies Emotions Elicited by Facial Expressions.

    PubMed

    Hakala, Jussi; Kätsyri, Jari; Häkkinen, Jukka

    2015-12-01

    Mediated facial expressions do not elicit emotions as strongly as real-life facial expressions, possibly due to the low fidelity of pictorial presentations in typical mediation technologies. In the present study, we investigated the extent to which stereoscopy amplifies emotions elicited by images of neutral, angry, and happy facial expressions. The emotional self-reports of positive and negative valence (which were evaluated separately) and arousal of 40 participants were recorded. The magnitude of perceived depth in the stereoscopic images was manipulated by varying the camera base at 15, 40, 65, 90, and 115 mm. The analyses controlled for participants' gender, gender match, emotional empathy, and trait alexithymia. The results indicated that stereoscopy significantly amplified the negative valence and arousal elicited by angry expressions at the most natural (65 mm) camera base, whereas stereoscopy amplified the positive valence elicited by happy expressions in both the narrowed and most natural (15-65 mm) base conditions. Overall, the results indicate that stereoscopy amplifies the emotions elicited by mediated emotional facial expressions when the depth geometry is close to natural. The findings highlight the sensitivity of the visual system to depth and its effect on emotions.

  20. Stereoscopy Amplifies Emotions Elicited by Facial Expressions

    PubMed Central

    Kätsyri, Jari; Häkkinen, Jukka

    2015-01-01

    Mediated facial expressions do not elicit emotions as strongly as real-life facial expressions, possibly due to the low fidelity of pictorial presentations in typical mediation technologies. In the present study, we investigated the extent to which stereoscopy amplifies emotions elicited by images of neutral, angry, and happy facial expressions. The emotional self-reports of positive and negative valence (which were evaluated separately) and arousal of 40 participants were recorded. The magnitude of perceived depth in the stereoscopic images was manipulated by varying the camera base at 15, 40, 65, 90, and 115 mm. The analyses controlled for participants’ gender, gender match, emotional empathy, and trait alexithymia. The results indicated that stereoscopy significantly amplified the negative valence and arousal elicited by angry expressions at the most natural (65 mm) camera base, whereas stereoscopy amplified the positive valence elicited by happy expressions in both the narrowed and most natural (15–65 mm) base conditions. Overall, the results indicate that stereoscopy amplifies the emotions elicited by mediated emotional facial expressions when the depth geometry is close to natural. The findings highlight the sensitivity of the visual system to depth and its effect on emotions. PMID:27551358

  1. Listening to the Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Voakes, Les

    2003-01-01

    Describes a partnership of youth and adults in Ontario, Canada in the generative process of participatory evaluation as youth and adults jointly produced a conference as a participatory evaluation and worked as democratic equals toward a common goal. (SLD)

  2. An Expert Fault Diagnosis System for Vehicle Air Conditioning Product Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, C. F.; Tee, B. T.; Khalil, S. N.; Chen, W.; Rauterberg, G. W. M.

    2015-09-01

    The paper describes the development of the vehicle air-conditioning fault diagnosis system in automotive industries with expert system shell. The main aim of the research is to diagnose the problem of new vehicle air-conditioning system development process and select the most suitable solution to the problems. In the vehicle air-conditioning manufacturing industry, process can be very costly where an expert and experience personnel needed in certain circumstances. The expert of in the industry will retire or resign from time to time. When the expert is absent, their experience and knowledge is difficult to retrieve or lost forever. Expert system is a convenient method to replace expert. By replacing the expert with expert system, the accuracy of the processes will be increased compared to the conventional way. Therefore, the quality of product services that are produced will be finer and better. The inputs for the fault diagnosis are based on design data and experience of the engineer.

  3. Expert system aid for military finance

    SciTech Connect

    Morris, J.D.; Emrich, M.L.; Hwang, Ho-Ling; Meador, M.

    1987-09-14

    Historically, budget preparation processes have been difficult to accomplish. Errors and inconsistencies cause problems for the analyst during budget review. This paper discusses the development and testing of an expert system to aid budget preparation. The prototyping tool, its capabilities, and their application are discussed. Shown are the pilot testing procedures and their role in system development. Current status and enhancements (including software updates and future testing) are also presented. 12 refs., 3 figs.

  4. Experts reveal catalyst-selection methodologies

    SciTech Connect

    1996-10-14

    Refining catalyst selection procedure were discussed in detail at Oil and Gas Journal`s International Catalyst Conference, Feb. 1--2, in Houston. Marathon Oil Co.`s James P. Wick revealed details of Marathon`s program for review and optimization of fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) and hydrotreating catalysts. And renowned FCC expert Del Tolen outlined a step-by-step procedure for choosing an FCC catalyst. The paper describes Marathon`s program and Tolen`s selection process.

  5. Using expert systems to analyze ATE data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harrington, Jim

    1994-01-01

    The proliferation of automatic test equipment (ATE) is resulting in the generation of large amounts of component data. Some of this component data is not accurate due to the presence of noise. Analyzing this data requires the use of new techniques. This paper describes the process of developing an expert system to analyze ATE data and provides an example rule in the CLIPS language for analyzing trip thresholds for high gain/high speed comparators.

  6. 20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... Section 405.10 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW PROCESS FOR... and Vocational Expert Unit and a national network of qualified medical, psychological, and vocational... network will assist Federal reviewing officials and administrative law judges in deciding claims....

  7. 20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... Section 405.10 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEW PROCESS FOR... and Vocational Expert Unit and a national network of qualified medical, psychological, and vocational... network will assist Federal reviewing officials and administrative law judges in deciding claims....

  8. Hypothetical constructs, hypothetical questions, and the expert witness.

    PubMed

    Brodsky, Stanley L; Titcomb, Caroline; Sams, David M; Dickson, Kara; Benda, Yves

    2012-01-01

    Professor John Henry Wigmore in 1940 described the hypothetical question as an intolerable obstruction of truth. Since that time, the nature and application of the hypothetical question in the courtroom, as well as responses to this line of questioning during expert testimony, have been sources of controversy. Governed by legal philosophical foundations, the hypothetical construct addresses what there is, in a general sense, and what can or ought to be. Alexy (2004) has described the nature of legal philosophy as the epistemological question of what we can know. This article begins by examining the philosophical underpinnings, legal parameters, and teaching purposes of posing hypothetical queries. A social-psychological backdrop for the use of hypothetical questions is then discussed followed by a broader discussion of the hypothetical question's role in court procedures. This paper identifies hypothetical questions used in court as devices to elicit information, or as predictions that potentially change underlying factual interpretations of evidence. In particular, on cross examination hypothetical questions seek to make opposing experts assume facts that are incongruent with their conclusions or opinions. Sometimes in these situations, experts are led to re-evaluate opinions based on alternative understandings of events and behaviors. Thus, this paper's final aim is to explore a foundational understanding of hypothetical questions asked of expert witnesses with special reference to mental health issues. Options for responding to hypothetical questions on the stand are considered along the dimensions of assertiveness-passivity, compliance-resistance, and possible redefinitions of the hypothetical issues.

  9. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    PubMed Central

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

  10. Expert Systems in Clinical Microbiology

    PubMed Central

    Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

    2011-01-01

    Summary: This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the “big three”: Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically. PMID:21734247

  11. Introduction to Cognitive Processes of Expert Pilots

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-06-01

    perception of a situation and provide negative reinforcement for later use in bad decision making. Job or personal stress, anxiety, fixation, emotional...problem solving. ’Experience can also interfere with the perception of a situation and provide negative reinforcement for later use of bad decision making...for both recall and inference. 6. Experience can also interfere with the perception of a situation and provide negative reinforcement for later use in

  12. Conditioned craving cues elicit an automatic approach tendency.

    PubMed

    Van Gucht, Dinska; Vansteenwegen, Debora; Van den Bergh, Omer; Beckers, Tom

    2008-10-01

    In two experiments, we used a Pavlovian differential conditioning procedure to induce craving for chocolate. As a result of repeated pairing with chocolate intake, initially neutral cues came to elicit an automatic approach tendency in a speeded stimulus-response compatibility reaction time task. This automatic approach tendency, moreover, seemed to be sensitive to manipulations of extinction and renewal in the Pavlovian conditioning procedure. These findings corroborate and extend previous reports of automatic approach tendencies elicited by substance-relevant cues in addiction, while controlling for alternative accounts for such observations. Moreover, our data lend support to and extend learning models of cue-induced craving and addiction. Finally, we argue that the procedure we present here provides an ecologically valid behavioural tool that allows studying processes involved in cue-induced craving, addiction and relapse without relying on verbal report.

  13. Rational elicitation of cold-sensitive phenotypes

    PubMed Central

    Baliga, Chetana; Majhi, Sandipan; Mondal, Kajari; Bhattacharjee, Antara; Varadarajan, Raghavan

    2016-01-01

    Cold-sensitive phenotypes have helped us understand macromolecular assembly and biological phenomena, yet few attempts have been made to understand the basis of cold sensitivity or to elicit it by design. We report a method for rational design of cold-sensitive phenotypes. The method involves generation of partial loss-of-function mutants, at either buried or functional sites, coupled with selective overexpression strategies. The only essential input is amino acid sequence, although available structural information can be used as well. The method has been used to elicit cold-sensitive mutants of a variety of proteins, both monomeric and dimeric, and in multiple organisms, namely Escherichia coli, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and Drosophila melanogaster. This simple, yet effective technique of inducing cold sensitivity eliminates the need for complex mutations and provides a plausible molecular mechanism for eliciting cold-sensitive phenotypes. PMID:27091994

  14. Expert stakeholder attitudes and support for alternative water sources in a groundwater depleted region.

    PubMed

    Boyer, Treavor H; Overdevest, Christine; Christiansen, Lisa; Ishii, Stephanie K L

    2012-10-15

    The main objectives of this research were to quantify the risks/benefits and impacts of alternative water sources (AWSs) as perceived by expert stakeholders and to evaluate the overall support for multiple AWSs by expert stakeholders. The St. Johns River (SJR) basin, FL, USA was chosen as a case study for AWSs because it is a fresh groundwater depleted region and there are ongoing activities related to water supply planning. Expert stakeholders included federal, state, and local governments, public utilities, consulting engineering and industry, and environmental and social non-governmental organizations. AWSs under consideration in the SJR basin include surface water, desalination, water reclamation, and water conservation. A two-phase research approach was followed that focused on expert stakeholders. First, an elicitation study was used to identify salient beliefs about AWSs. Open-ended questions were asked about the risks/benefits of AWSs in terms of the three pillars of sustainability: ecological, economic, and human health impacts. Second, an online survey was constructed using beliefs identified during the elicitation study. The online survey was used to quantify attitudes toward and overall support for AWSs. The salient beliefs of expert stakeholders were dominated by the ecological pillar of sustainability. The support of expert stakeholders for AWSs, from least favorable to most favorable, was surface water withdrawals

  15. Artificial intelligence and the law: will expert systems replace expert lawyers

    SciTech Connect

    Grossman, G.S.

    1983-01-01

    Summary form only given, as follows. The commercial availability of expert systems utilizing specially developed knowledge bases raises significant questions about their potential utility in the practice of law. These systems, built with the aid of recent developments in artificial intelligence research, may only prove useful in certain areas of legal practice. Counselling and interviewing are areas where expert systems are likely to effect marked changes in the practice of law. In contract, computerized legal research using a knowledge-based system is more difficult to envision. This is due to complexities presented by the multiplicity of sources of the law, and by conflicting opinions and interpretations in the common law. In the coming decade, use of expert systems in science and medicine will grow rapidly, and attempts will continue to be made to automate the legal reasoning process. As past research efforts have demonstrated, this will not be an easy task.

  16. Impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on smoking in adults and children: an elicitation of international experts’ estimates

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Governments sometimes face important decisions in the absence of direct evidence. In these cases, expert elicitation methods can be used to quantify uncertainty. We report the results of an expert elicitation study regarding the likely impact on smoking rates in adults and children of plain packaging of tobacco products. Methods Thirty-three tobacco control experts were recruited from the UK (n = 14), Australasia (n = 12) and North America (n = 7). Experts’ estimates were individually elicited via telephone interviews, and then linearly pooled. Elicited estimates consisted of (1) the most likely, (2) the highest possible, and (3) the lowest possible value for the percentage of (a) adult smokers and (b) children trying smoking, two years after the introduction of plain packaging (all other things being constant) in a target country in the expert’s region of residence. Results The median estimate for the impact on adult smoking prevalence was a 1 percentage point decline (99% range 2.25 to 0), and for the percentage of children trying smoking was a 3 percentage point decline (99% range 6.1 to 0), the latter estimated impact being larger than the former (P < 0.001, sign test). There were no differences in either estimate by region (I2: Adults: 0; Children: 0) but there was considerable variability between experts’ estimates within regions (I2: Adults: 0.91; Children: 0.89). Conclusions In the absence of direct evidence for the impact of introducing plain packaging on smoking rates in adults and children, this study shows that tobacco control experts felt the most likely outcomes would be a reduction in smoking prevalence in adults, and a greater reduction in the numbers of children trying smoking, although there was substantial variability in the estimated size of these impacts. No experts judged an increase in smoking as a likely outcome. PMID:23302325

  17. How to Meet the Last OIE Expert Surveillance Panel Recommendations on Equine Influenza (EI) Vaccine Composition: A Review of the Process Required for the Recombinant Canarypox-Based EI Vaccine

    PubMed Central

    Paillot, Romain; Rash, Nicola L.; Garrett, Dion; Prowse-Davis, Leah; Montesso, Fernando; Cullinane, Ann; Lemaitre, Laurent; Thibault, Jean-Christophe; Wittreck, Sonia; Dancer, Agnes

    2016-01-01

    Vaccination is highly effective to prevent, control, and limit the impact of equine influenza (EI), a major respiratory disease of horses. However, EI vaccines should contain relevant equine influenza virus (EIV) strains for optimal protection. The OIE expert surveillance panel annually reviews EIV evolution and, since 2010, the use of Florida clade 1 and 2 sub-lineages representative vaccine strains is recommended. This report summarises the development process of a fully- updated recombinant canarypox-based EI vaccine in order to meet the last OIE recommendations, including the vaccine mode of action, production steps and schedule. The EI vaccine ProteqFlu contains 2 recombinant canarypox viruses expressing the haemagglutinin of the A/equine/Ohio/03 and A/equine/Richmond/1/07 isolates (Florida clade 1 and 2 sub-lineages, respectively). The updated EI vaccine was tested for efficacy against the representative Florida clade 2 EIV strain A/equine/Richmond/1/07 in the Welsh mountain pony model. Protective antibody response, clinical signs of disease and virus shedding were compared with unvaccinated control ponies. Significant protection was measured in vaccinated ponies, which supports the vaccine registration. The recombinant canarypox-based EI vaccine was the first fully updated EI vaccine available in the EU, which will help to minimise the increasing risk of vaccine breakdown due to constant EIV evolution through antigenic drift. PMID:27897990

  18. How to Meet the Last OIE Expert Surveillance Panel Recommendations on Equine Influenza (EI) Vaccine Composition: A Review of the Process Required for the Recombinant Canarypox-Based EI Vaccine.

    PubMed

    Paillot, Romain; Rash, Nicola L; Garrett, Dion; Prowse-Davis, Leah; Montesso, Fernando; Cullinane, Ann; Lemaitre, Laurent; Thibault, Jean-Christophe; Wittreck, Sonia; Dancer, Agnes

    2016-11-25

    Vaccination is highly effective to prevent, control, and limit the impact of equine influenza (EI), a major respiratory disease of horses. However, EI vaccines should contain relevant equine influenza virus (EIV) strains for optimal protection. The OIE expert surveillance panel annually reviews EIV evolution and, since 2010, the use of Florida clade 1 and 2 sub-lineages representative vaccine strains is recommended. This report summarises the development process of a fully- updated recombinant canarypox-based EI vaccine in order to meet the last OIE recommendations, including the vaccine mode of action, production steps and schedule. The EI vaccine ProteqFlu contains 2 recombinant canarypox viruses expressing the haemagglutinin of the A/equine/Ohio/03 and A/equine/Richmond/1/07 isolates (Florida clade 1 and 2 sub-lineages, respectively). The updated EI vaccine was tested for efficacy against the representative Florida clade 2 EIV strain A/equine/Richmond/1/07 in the Welsh mountain pony model. Protective antibody response, clinical signs of disease and virus shedding were compared with unvaccinated control ponies. Significant protection was measured in vaccinated ponies, which supports the vaccine registration. The recombinant canarypox-based EI vaccine was the first fully updated EI vaccine available in the EU, which will help to minimise the increasing risk of vaccine breakdown due to constant EIV evolution through antigenic drift.

  19. Using Expert Knowledge for Test Linking.

    PubMed

    Bolsinova, Maria; Hoijtink, Herbert; Vermeulen, Jorine Adinda; Béguin, Anton

    2017-04-03

    Linking and equating procedures are used to make the results of different test forms comparable. In the cases where no assumption of random equivalent groups can be made some form of linking design is used. In practice the amount of data available to link the two tests is often very limited due to logistic and security reasons, which affects the precision of linking procedures. This study proposes to enhance the quality of linking procedures based on sparse data by using Bayesian methods which combine the information in the linking data with background information captured in informative prior distributions. We propose two methods for the elicitation of prior knowledge about the difference in difficulty of two tests from subject-matter experts and explain how these results can be used in the specification of priors. To illustrate the proposed methods and evaluate the quality of linking with and without informative priors, an empirical example of linking primary school mathematics tests is presented. The results suggest that informative priors can increase the precision of linking without decreasing the accuracy. (PsycINFO Database Record

  20. Knowledge elicitation techniques and application to nuclear plant maintenance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doyle, E. Kevin

    The new millennium has brought with it the opportunity of global trade which in turn requires the utmost in efficiency from each individual industry. This includes the nuclear power industry, a point which was emphasized when the electrical generation industry began to be de regulated across North America the late 1990s and re-emphasized when the northeast power grid of North America collapsed in the summer of 2003. This dissertation deals with reducing the cost of the maintenance function of Candu nuclear power plants and initiating a strong link between universities and the Canadian nuclear industry. Various forms of RCM (reliability-centred maintenance) have been the tools of choice in industry for improving the maintenance function during the last 20 years. In this project, pilot studies, conducted at Bruce Power between 1999 and 2005, and reported on in this dissertation, lay out a path to implement statistical improvements as the next step after RCM in reducing the cost of the maintenance. Elicitation protocols, designed for the age group being elicited, address the much-documented issue of a lack of data. Clear, graphical, inferential statistical interfaces are accentuated and developed to aid in building the teams required to implement the various methodologies and to help in achieving funding targets. Graphical analysis and Crow/AMSAA (army materials systems analysis activity) plots are developed and demonstrated from the point of view of justifying the expenditures of cost reduction efforts. This dissertation ultimately speaks to the great opportunity being presented by this approach at this time: of capturing the baby-boom generation's huge pool of knowledge before those people retire. It is expected that the protocols and procedures referenced here will have applicability across the many disciplines where collecting expert information from a similar age group is required.

  1. [Professional and ethical medical expert quality].

    PubMed

    Iveković, Renata

    2008-01-01

    The work of court experts, including those of medical profession, is ruled by Regulations on standing court experts. The Regulations determine requirements for performing the job of court expertise, rights and duties of court experts, awards and remuneration for their work. The ethical codex determines relation of experts to performance of expertise, to court and parties, to colleagues court experts and to the community. The expert must obey the rules on performance of the expertise, complete all his duties, protect respectability of all court experts, and justify trust of legal authorities. In relationship with the court, the expert must respond to court summons, give his finding and opinion, and come to hearing summons.

  2. The making of expert clinicians: reflective practice.

    PubMed

    Maestre, J M; Szyld, D; Del Moral, I; Ortiz, G; Rudolph, J W

    2014-05-01

    Debriefing is a rigorous reflection process which helps trainees recognize and resolve clinical and behavioral dilemmas raised by a clinical case. This approach emphasizes eliciting trainees'assumptions about the situation and their reasons for performing as they did (mental models). It analyses their impact on actions, to understand if it is necessary to maintain them or construct new ones that may lead to better performance in the future. It blends evidence and theory from education research, the social and cognitive sciences, and experience drawn from conducting and teaching debriefing to clinicians worldwide, on how to improve professional effectiveness through "reflective practice".

  3. Rhetorical Consequences of the Computer Society: Expert Systems and Human Communication.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skopec, Eric Wm.

    Expert systems are computer programs that solve selected problems by modelling domain-specific behaviors of human experts. These computer programs typically consist of an input/output system that feeds data into the computer and retrieves advice, an inference system using the reasoning and heuristic processes of human experts, and a knowledge…

  4. The Expert Project Management System (EPMS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Silverman, Barry G.; Diakite, Coty

    1986-01-01

    Successful project managers (PMs) have been shown to rely on 'intuition,' experience, and analogical reasoning heuristics. For new PMs to be trained and experienced PMs to avoid repeating others' mistakes, it is necessary to make the knowledge and heuristics of successful PMs more widely available. The preparers have evolved a model of PM thought processes over the last decade that is now ready to be implemented as a generic PM aid. This aid consists of a series of 'specialist' expert systems (CRITIC, LIBRARIAN, IDEA MAN, CRAFTSMAN, and WRITER) that communicate with each other via a 'blackboard' architecture. The various specialist expert systems are driven to support PM training and problem solving since any 'answers' they pass to the blackboard are subjected to conflict identification (AGENDA FORMULATOR) and GOAL SETTER inference engines.

  5. Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luxhoj, J. T.; Ancel, E.; Green, L. L.; Shih, A. T.; Jones, S. M.; Reveley, M. S.

    2014-01-01

    Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

  6. Realistic Real World Contexts: Model Eliciting Activities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doruk, Bekir Kürsat

    2016-01-01

    Researchers have proposed a variety of methods to make a connection between real life and mathematics so that it can be learned in a practical way and enable people to utilise mathematics in their daily lives. Model-eliciting activities (MEAs) were developed to fulfil this need and are very capable of serving this purpose. The reason MEAs are so…

  7. Video Elicitation of the Semiotic Self.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stockall, Nancy

    2001-01-01

    Illustrates the power of video recording to elicit the thinking of teachers as they reflect on their teaching practices. Draws on the work of Wiley (1994), which identified the internal conversation as a critical feature of the semiotic self. (Author/VWL)

  8. Use of probabilistic expert judgment in uncertainty analysis of carcinogenic potency.

    PubMed

    Evans, J S; Gray, G M; Sielken, R L; Smith, A E; Valdez-Flores, C; Graham, J D

    1994-08-01

    A new approach to characterizing the state of knowledge about carcinogenic potency is described. In this approach, the carcinogenic risk posed by a specific dose is characterized by a probability distribution, indicating the relative likelihood of different risk estimates. The approach utilizes expert judgment and a probability tree and is illustrated in a case study of chloroform exposure. Experts in cancer biology/toxicology, pharmacokinetics, and dose-response modeling were identified by a panel of science-policy specialists. In a workshop, experts reviewed the chloroform data, received training in probability elicitation, and constructed a consensual probability tree based on biological theories of cancer causation. Distributions of carcinogenic risk were developed based on the probability tree, chloroform data, judgmental probabilities provided by the experts, and classical statistical techniques. Risk distributions varied considerably between experts, with some predicting essentially no risk from 100 ppb chloroform in drinking water while other have at least some probability on risks generally considered of regulatory significance. Estimated human risk was much lower when extrapolating from liver tumors in animals than from kidney tumors. Issues of scientific disagreement leading to different risk distributions between experts are discussed. The resulting risk distributions are compared to standard EPA risk calculations for the same exposure scenario as well as to the expert judgement of epidemiologists about cancer risks of chlorinated drinking water. Issues in combining expert judgments are discussed, and several alternative methods are presented. Strengths and weaknesses of the distributional approach are discussed.

  9. Elicitation of macrophages from the peritoneal cavity of channel catfish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jenkins, J.A.; Klesius, P.H.

    1998-01-01

    Four chemicals were evaluated for elicitation of macrophages in peritoneal cavities of 250-300g healthy channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus. Cellular exudates were collected at 3, 5, 7, 10, 14, and 20 d following intraperitoneal injections with squalene, Freund's incomplete adjuvant (FIA), goat serum, thioglycollate, or as a control, phosphate-buffered saline. Injection with either squalene or FIA induced significantly greater (P ??? 0.0001) macrophage recruitment than the other chemicals. The effectiveness of squalene and FIA was compared further by macrophage collection daily for 7 d. Squalene and FIA elicited similarly high macrophage responses (P ??? 0.0450), the highest being 3.43 x 106 macrophages/mL (SE, 2.4 x l06) at 99% purity at day 2 and 2.1 X 106 macrophages/mL (SE, 0.7 x 106) at day 14 at 80% purity, respectively. In both experiments, the time after injection was not statistically significant, nor was there an interaction between time and chemicals. The occurrence of cells other than macrophages decreased with time to yield macrophage recoveries of 47-99% for squalene and 30-80% for FIA. Two subsets of macrophages were observed by means of flow cytometry. As demonstrated by chemiluminescence, the squalene-elicited cells produced high-energy oxygen compounds important to the phagocytic process.

  10. Multiple neural network approaches to clinical expert systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stubbs, Derek F.

    1990-08-01

    We briefly review the concept of computer aided medical diagnosis and more extensively review the the existing literature on neural network applications in the field. Neural networks can function as simple expert systems for diagnosis or prognosis. Using a public database we develop a neural network for the diagnosis of a major presenting symptom while discussing the development process and possible approaches. MEDICAL EXPERTS SYSTEMS COMPUTER AIDED DIAGNOSIS Biomedicine is an incredibly diverse and multidisciplinary field and it is not surprising that neural networks with their many applications are finding more and more applications in the highly non-linear field of biomedicine. I want to concentrate on neural networks as medical expert systems for clinical diagnosis or prognosis. Expert Systems started out as a set of computerized " ifthen" rules. Everything was reduced to boolean logic and the promised land of computer experts was said to be in sight. It never came. Why? First the computer code explodes as the number of " ifs" increases. All the " ifs" have to interact. Second experts are not very good at reducing expertise to language. It turns out that experts recognize patterns and have non-verbal left-brain intuition decision processes. Third learning by example rather than learning by rule is the way natural brains works and making computers work by rule-learning is hideously labor intensive. Neural networks can learn from example. They learn the results

  11. A gene mapping expert system.

    PubMed

    Galland, J; Skolnick, M H

    1990-08-01

    Expert systems are now commonly developed to solve practical problems. Nevertheless, genetics has just begun to benefit from this new technology, since genetic expert systems are extremely rare and often purely experimental. A prototype for risk calculation in pedigrees was developed at the University of Utah, using a commercial frames/rules developmental shell (Intelligence Compiler), which runs on an IBM PC. When small data sets were used, the implementation functioned well, but it could not handle larger data sets. Performance became a major issue, with two possible solutions. The first possibility would have been to port the system to a more powerful machine, and the second would have been to use several different shells or languages, each efficiently representing a specific type of knowledge. Neither of these solutions was applicable in this case. From this experience, we learned that performance, portability, and modifiability were three major requirements for genetic expert systems. To achieve these goals, we implemented the gene mapping expert system GMES: (GMES is unrelated to the gene mapping system, GMS in Lisp combined with a frame/object shell (FROBS). We were able to efficiently represent, control, and optimize a gene mapping experiment, achieving portability by building GMES on top of a C-based version of Common Lisp. Lisp combined with the FROBS expert system shell permitted a declarative representation of each of the components of the experiment, resulting in a transplant specification of the problem within a maintainable system.

  12. Expert evidence, the adversary system, and the jury.

    PubMed

    Vidmar, Neil

    2005-01-01

    Many assertions have been made about the competence of juries in dealing with expert evidence. I review the types of expert evidence that jurors hear and the impact of adversary legal procedure on the form and manner in which evidence is presented. Empirical research indicates that jurors understand the adversary process, that they do not automatically defer to the opinions of experts, and that their verdicts appear to be generally consistent with external criteria of performance. Conflicts between the American adversary system and changes in trial procedures that might assist the jury in its task are also considered here.

  13. Register of hydrogen technology experts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ludtke, P. R.

    1975-01-01

    This register presents the names of approximately 235 individuals who are considered experts, or very knowledgeable, in various fields of technology related to hydrogen. Approximately 90 organizations are represented. Each person is listed by organizational affiliation, address, and principal area of expertise. The criteria for selection of names for the register are extensive experience in a given field of work, participation in or supervision of relevant research programs, contributions to the literature, or being recognized as an expert in a particular field. The purpose of the register is to present, in easy form, sources of dependable information regarding highly technical areas of hydrogen technology, with particular emphasis on safety. The register includes two indexes: an alphabetical listing of the experts and an alphabetical listing of the organizations with which they are affiliated.

  14. Expert witness and Jungian archetypes.

    PubMed

    Lallave, Juan Antonio; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Jung's theories of archetype, shadow, and the personal and collective unconscious provide a postmodern framework in which to consider the role of the expert witness in judicial proceedings. Archetypal themes, motifs, and influences help to illuminate the shadow of the judicial system and projections and behaviors among the cast of the court in pursuing justice. This article speaks to archetypal influences and dialectical tensions encountered by the expert witness in this judicial drama. The archetype of Justice is born from the human need for order and relational fairness in a world of chaos. The persona of justice is the promise of truth in the drama. The shadow of justice is untruth, the need to win by any means. The dynamics of the trickster archetype serve and promote injustice. These influences are examined by means of a case example. This approach will deepen understanding of court proceedings and the role of the expert witness in the heroic quest for justice.

  15. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  16. Eliciting and Representing High-Level Knowledge Requirements to Discover Ecological Knowledge in Flower-Visiting Data

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Observations of individual organisms (data) can be combined with expert ecological knowledge of species, especially causal knowledge, to model and extract from flower–visiting data useful information about behavioral interactions between insect and plant organisms, such as nectar foraging and pollen transfer. We describe and evaluate a method to elicit and represent such expert causal knowledge of behavioral ecology, and discuss the potential for wider application of this method to the design of knowledge-based systems for knowledge discovery in biodiversity and ecosystem informatics. PMID:27851814

  17. Extending Hypothesis Testing of Edge Organizations Using Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) During ELICIT

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-06-01

    task difficulty and response correctness on neural systems supporting fluid reasoning. Cognitive Neurodynamics 1 (1): 71-84. Kaplan, J.T., Iacoboni...dynamic influences on decision-making and trust during social interaction. ELICITing Behavior ELICIT is designed to explore social and cognitive ...a person’s own self-awareness in the game experience, (2) their cognitive processes of reasoning, and (3) the modulation of uncertainty that primes

  18. Nickel cadmium battery expert system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1986-11-01

    The applicability of artificial intelligence methodologies for the automation of energy storage management, in this case, nickel cadmium batteries, is demonstrated. With the Hubble Space Telescope Electrical Power System (HST/EPS) testbed as the application domain, an expert system was developed which incorporates the physical characterization of the EPS, in particular, the nickel cadmium batteries, as well as the human's operational knowledge. The expert system returns not only fault diagnostics but also status and advice along with justifications and explanations in the form of decision support.

  19. Robotic planner expert system (RPLANES)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grice, Ervin Oneal

    1987-01-01

    The Artificial Intelligence Section of the Mission Planning and Analysis of the Johnson Space Center has developed a prototype of an expert system for robotic planning. A robot is given a high level goal to perform an action (i.e., swap, adjust, or stow) on a component unit of an object such as a satellite and the Robotic Planner Expert System (RPLANES) generates the necessary goals for arm actions. RPLANES is designed using the Inference Corp. Automated Reasoning Tool (ART) development tool. It resides on a SYMBOLICS 3670. RPLANES and its evolution are described.

  20. Nickel cadmium battery expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The applicability of artificial intelligence methodologies for the automation of energy storage management, in this case, nickel cadmium batteries, is demonstrated. With the Hubble Space Telescope Electrical Power System (HST/EPS) testbed as the application domain, an expert system was developed which incorporates the physical characterization of the EPS, in particular, the nickel cadmium batteries, as well as the human's operational knowledge. The expert system returns not only fault diagnostics but also status and advice along with justifications and explanations in the form of decision support.

  1. User interfaces to expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Agarwal, A.; Emrich, M.L.

    1988-10-01

    Expert Systems are becoming increasingly popular in environments where the user is not well versed in computers or the subject domain. They offer expert advice and can also explain their lines of reasoning. As these systems are applied to highly technical areas, they become complex and large. Therefore, User Systems Interfaces (USIs) become critical. This paper discusses recent technologies that can be applied to improved user communication. In particular, bar menus/graphics, mouse interfaces, touch screens, and voice links will be highlighted. Their applications in the context of SOFTMAN (The Software Manager Apprentice) a knowledge-based system are discussed. 18 refs., 2 figs.

  2. Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie.

    PubMed

    Wittmann, Marion E; Cooke, Roger M; Rothlisberger, John D; Rutherford, Edward S; Zhang, Hongyan; Mason, Doran M; Lodge, David M

    2015-02-01

    Identifying which nonindigenous species will become invasive and forecasting the damage they will cause is difficult and presents a significant problem for natural resource management. Often, the data or resources necessary for ecological risk assessment are incomplete or absent, leaving environmental decision makers ill equipped to effectively manage valuable natural resources. Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is a mathematical and performance-based method of eliciting, weighting, and aggregating expert judgments. In contrast to other methods of eliciting and aggregating expert judgments (where, for example, equal weights may be assigned to experts), SEJ weights each expert on the basis of his or her statistical accuracy and informativeness through performance measurement on a set of calibration variables. We used SEJ to forecast impacts of nonindigenous Asian carp (Hypophthalmichthys spp.) in Lake Erie, where it is believed not to be established. Experts quantified Asian carp biomass, production, and consumption and their impact on 4 fish species if Asian carp were to become established. According to experts, in Lake Erie Asian carp have the potential to achieve biomass levels that are similar to the sum of biomasses for several fishes that are harvested commercially or recreationally. However, the impact of Asian carp on the biomass of these fishes was estimated by experts to be small, relative to long term average biomasses, with little uncertainty. Impacts of Asian carp in tributaries and on recreational activities, water quality, or other species were not addressed. SEJ can be used to quantify key uncertainties of invasion biology and also provide a decision-support tool when the necessary information for natural resource management and policy is not available.

  3. Experts correctly describe demography associated with historical decline of the endangered Indiana bat, but not recent period of stationarity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Szymanski, Jennifer; Pruitt, Lori; Runge, Michael C.

    2017-01-01

    Demographic characteristics of bats are often insufficiently described for modeling populations. In data poor situations, experts are often relied upon for characterizing ecological systems. In concert with the development of a matrix model describing Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) demography, we elicited estimates for parameterizing this model from 12 experts. We conducted this elicitation in two stages, requesting expert values for 12 demographic rates. These rates were adult and juvenile seasonal (winter, summer, fall) survival rates, pup survival in fall, and propensity and success at breeding. Experts were most in agreement about adult fall survival (3% Coefficient of Variation) and least in agreement about propensity of juveniles to breed (37% CV). The experts showed greater concordance for adult ( mean CV, adult = 6.2%) than for juvenile parameters ( mean CV, juvenile = 16.4%), and slightly more agreement for survival (mean CV, survival = 9.8%) compared to reproductive rates ( mean CV, reproduction = 15.1%). However, survival and reproduction were negatively and positively biased, respectively, relative to a stationary dynamic. Despite the species exhibiting near stationary dynamics for two decades prior to the onset of a potential extinction-causing agent, white-nose syndrome, expert estimates indicated a population decline of -11% per year (95% CI = -2%, -20%); quasi-extinction was predicted within a century ( mean = 61 years to QE, range = 32, 97) by 10 of the 12 experts. Were we to use these expert estimates in our modeling efforts, we would have errantly trained our models to a rapidly declining demography asymptomatic of recent demographic behavior. While experts are sometimes the only source of information, a clear understanding of the temporal and spatial context of the information being elicited is necessary to guard against wayward predictions.

  4. An expert system based intelligent control scheme for space bioreactors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    San, Ka-Yiu

    1988-01-01

    An expert system based intelligent control scheme is being developed for the effective control and full automation of bioreactor systems in space. The scheme developed will have the capability to capture information from various resources including heuristic information from process researchers and operators. The knowledge base of the expert system should contain enough expertise to perform on-line system identification and thus be able to adapt the controllers accordingly with minimal human supervision.

  5. Evidential Reasoning in Expert Systems for Image Analysis.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-02-01

    techniques to image analysis (IA). There is growing evidence that these techniques offer significant improvements in image analysis , particularly in the...2) to provide a common framework for analysis, (3) to structure the ER process for major expert-system tasks in image analysis , and (4) to identify...approaches to three important tasks for expert systems in the domain of image analysis . This segment concluded with an assessment of the strengths

  6. Expert music performance: cognitive, neural, and developmental bases.

    PubMed

    Brown, Rachel M; Zatorre, Robert J; Penhune, Virginia B

    2015-01-01

    In this chapter, we explore what happens in the brain of an expert musician during performance. Understanding expert music performance is interesting to cognitive neuroscientists not only because it tests the limits of human memory and movement, but also because studying expert musicianship can help us understand skilled human behavior in general. In this chapter, we outline important facets of our current understanding of the cognitive and neural basis for music performance, and developmental factors that may underlie musical ability. We address three main questions. (1) What is expert performance? (2) How do musicians achieve expert-level performance? (3) How does expert performance come about? We address the first question by describing musicians' ability to remember, plan, execute, and monitor their performances in order to perform music accurately and expressively. We address the second question by reviewing evidence for possible cognitive and neural mechanisms that may underlie or contribute to expert music performance, including the integration of sound and movement, feedforward and feedback motor control processes, expectancy, and imagery. We further discuss how neural circuits in auditory, motor, parietal, subcortical, and frontal cortex all contribute to different facets of musical expertise. Finally, we address the third question by reviewing evidence for the heritability of musical expertise and for how expertise develops through training and practice. We end by discussing outlooks for future work.

  7. Towards a science of expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Denning, P. J.

    1986-01-01

    Developments in the field of AI are discussed. The components and applications of expert systems, which are computer systems designed to simulate the problem-solving behavior of a person expert in a narrow field, are examined. Two types of expert systems, shallow and deep, are described and examples are given. A logic programming system, rule-based system, and framed-based system are utilized as means of representing the expert system's data base. The limitations of expert systems are considered.

  8. Teen Experts Guide Makerspace Makeover

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graves, Colleen

    2014-01-01

    A makerspace is a place where makers can envision a project, find an expert, and create something. Libraries have always held programming during which patrons were able to come in and create. The makerspace at the Lamar Middle School in Flower Mound, Texas, is available for students every day, so that they can daily create and play with innovative…

  9. Expert Systems for Reference Work.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parrot, James R.

    1986-01-01

    Discussion of library reference work that may be suitable for use of expert systems focuses on (1) information and literature searches, and (2) requests to interpret bibliographic references and locate items listed. Systems and computer-assisted instruction modules designed for information retrieval at the University of Waterloo Library are…

  10. Computers that Think Like Experts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kinnucan, Paul

    1984-01-01

    Discusses the nature of expert systems, including various techniques they use to represent knowledge (such as production rules, semantic networks, frames, first-order logic, and others), system interactions, and such problem domains as science, medicine, computer configuration, trouble-shooting/repair, and oil/mineral exploration. Also discusses…

  11. Coupling expert systems and simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kawamura, K.; Beale, G.; Padalkar, S.; Rodriguez-Moscoso, J.; Hsieh, B. J.; Vinz, F.; Fernandez, K. R.

    1988-01-01

    A prototype coupled system called NESS (NASA Expert Simulation System) is described. NESS assists the user in running digital simulations of dynamic systems, interprets the output data to performance specifications, and recommends a suitable series compensator to be added to the simulation model.

  12. Elicitation of secondary metabolism in actinomycetes.

    PubMed

    Abdelmohsen, Usama Ramadan; Grkovic, Tanja; Balasubramanian, Srikkanth; Kamel, Mohamed Salah; Quinn, Ronald J; Hentschel, Ute

    2015-11-01

    Genomic sequence data have revealed the presence of a large fraction of putatively silent biosynthetic gene clusters in the genomes of actinomycetes that encode for secondary metabolites, which are not detected under standard fermentation conditions. This review focuses on the effects of biological (co-cultivation), chemical, as well as molecular elicitation on secondary metabolism in actinomycetes. Our review covers the literature until June 2014 and exemplifies the diversity of natural products that have been recovered by such approaches from the phylum Actinobacteria.

  13. Understanding, eliciting and negotiating clients' multicultural health beliefs.

    PubMed

    Jackson, L E

    1993-04-01

    People of many cultures explain and treat illness in ways that are different from and that may conflict with the biomedical beliefs and practices on which the American health care system is based. Eliciting clients' health beliefs and negotiating treatment plans with them can help avoid problems caused by discrepancies in belief systems. This article presents three major categories of belief systems commonly found in the United States as well as other countries. Questions designed to discover clients' health beliefs are included, along with guidelines for arriving at plans of care that accommodate those beliefs. Case studies are provided that illustrate this process of negotiation.

  14. Auditory Evoked Fields Elicited by Spectral, Temporal, and Spectral–Temporal Changes in Human Cerebral Cortex

    PubMed Central

    Okamoto, Hidehiko; Teismann, Henning; Kakigi, Ryusuke; Pantev, Christo

    2012-01-01

    Natural sounds contain complex spectral components, which are temporally modulated as time-varying signals. Recent studies have suggested that the auditory system encodes spectral and temporal sound information differently. However, it remains unresolved how the human brain processes sounds containing both spectral and temporal changes. In the present study, we investigated human auditory evoked responses elicited by spectral, temporal, and spectral–temporal sound changes by means of magnetoencephalography. The auditory evoked responses elicited by the spectral–temporal change were very similar to those elicited by the spectral change, but those elicited by the temporal change were delayed by 30–50 ms and differed from the others in morphology. The results suggest that human brain responses corresponding to spectral sound changes precede those corresponding to temporal sound changes, even when the spectral and temporal changes occur simultaneously. PMID:22593751

  15. Eyeglasses elicit effects similar to face-like perceptual expertise: evidence from the N170 response.

    PubMed

    Cao, Xiaohua; Yang, Qi; Hu, Fengpei

    2016-03-01

    Studies of event-related potentials show that the specific N170 response has become a stable electrophysiological hallmark of objects related to expertise in early perceptual processing. In the present study, we investigated whether eyeglasses can elicit N170 effects similar to those elicited by objects of expertise. Our results showed that the N170 response elicited by eyeglasses was larger than the response elicited by objects that do not generate perceptual expertise (e.g., houses). Importantly, we found that eyeglasses could produce a within-category N170 adaptation effect, similar to that produced in response to objects of expertise (e.g., faces). Our results have revealed for the first time that with a large amount of experience, eyeglasses could evoke the face-like N170 response, which suggested that eyeglasses may become an object of perceptual expertise to some human observers.

  16. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems: Will They Change the Library? Papers Presented at the Annual Clinic on Library Applications of Data Processing (27th, Urbana, Illinois, March 25-27, 1990). Illinois, March 25-27, 1990).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lancaster, F. W., Ed.; Smith, Linda C., Ed.

    Some of the 12 conference papers presented in this proceedings focus on the present and potential capabilities of artificial intelligence and expert systems as they relate to a wide range of library applications, including descriptive cataloging, technical services, collection development, subject indexing, reference services, database searching,…

  17. Expert Witness Participation in Civil and Criminal Proceedings.

    PubMed

    Narang, Sandeep K; Paul, Stephan R

    2017-03-01

    The interests of the public and both the medical and legal professions are best served when scientifically sound and unbiased expert witness testimony is readily available in civil and criminal proceedings. As members of the medical community, patient advocates, and private citizens, pediatricians have ethical and professional obligations to assist in the civil and criminal judicial processes. This technical report explains how the role of the expert witness differs in civil and criminal proceedings, legal and ethical standards for expert witnesses, and strategies that have been employed to deter unscientific and irresponsible testimony. A companion policy statement offers recommendations on advocacy, education, research, qualifications, standards, and ethical business practices all aimed at improving expert testimony.

  18. Expert system technology for natural gas resource development

    SciTech Connect

    Munro, R.G.

    1997-12-31

    Materials data are used in all aspects of the development of natural gas resources. Unconventional gas resources require special attention in their development and may benefit from heuristic assessments of the materials data, geological site conditions, and the knowledge base accumulated from previous unconventional site developments. Opportunities for using expert systems in the development of unconventional natural gas resources are discussed. A brief introduction to expert systems is provided in a context that emphasizes the practical nature of their service. The discussion then focuses on the development of unconventional gas reserves. Whenever possible, the likelihood of success in constructing useful expert systems for gas resource development is indicated by comparisons to existing expert systems that perform comparable functions in other industries. Significant opportunities are found for applications to site assessment, the interpretation of well log data, and the monitoring and optimization of gas processing in small-scale recovery operations.

  19. The linguistic construction of expert identity in professor-student discussions of science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oliveira, Alandeom W.; Sadler, Troy D.; Suslak, Daniel F.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines how participation in a verbal exchange during an inquiry-based classroom activity allows three college students and their science instructor to use linguistic signs (choices of words, grammatical structures, discursive structures, prosody and poetic discourse) to construct authority and expertise. Our work explores linguistic and interactional processes of identification (the dynamic construction and transaction of expert identity) and examines how discursive strategies adopted by the professor at different moments of the verbal exchange influence the students' subsequent discursive practices and perceptions of authority. We adopt a dialogic, socio-constructivist perspective on identity, viewing personal identities as being partially constructed via interactional positioning. Our findings reveal that the attainment of expertise involves two different types of language-mediated processes: the transmission of a professional vision or intension and the emergence of a perception of agency among students. The former is centered on referential-denotative meanings of speech (elicitation of standard account and operational definition) while the latter requires effective use of pragmatic-performative functions of speech (non-evaluative and more than minimal recipient practices). Consideration is given to the need for science instructors to be able to utilize pragmatic functions of language strategically to encourage students to position themselves within the identity of science expertise.

  20. Expert systems in agriculture and resource management

    SciTech Connect

    Plant, R.E.

    1993-05-01

    This paper gives a description of some representative examples of expert systems applied to problems in agriculture and biological resource management. The discussion of agricultural expert systems focuses on several decision support systems for crop management, describing the systems themselves and the implementation efforts surrounding them. The examples of the application of expert systems to biological resource management focus on the integration of expert systems with geographic information systems. A description of some of the more recent developments in agricultural expert systems, still in the prototype stage, is then given, followed by a summary discussion of possible environmental implications of the use of expert systems in agriculture and resource management. 63 refs.

  1. Expert credibility in climate change.

    PubMed

    Anderegg, William R L; Prall, James W; Harold, Jacob; Schneider, Stephen H

    2010-07-06

    Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97-98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.

  2. Uncertainty reasoning in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kreinovich, Vladik

    1993-01-01

    Intelligent control is a very successful way to transform the expert's knowledge of the type 'if the velocity is big and the distance from the object is small, hit the brakes and decelerate as fast as possible' into an actual control. To apply this transformation, one must choose appropriate methods for reasoning with uncertainty, i.e., one must: (1) choose the representation for words like 'small', 'big'; (2) choose operations corresponding to 'and' and 'or'; (3) choose a method that transforms the resulting uncertain control recommendations into a precise control strategy. The wrong choice can drastically affect the quality of the resulting control, so the problem of choosing the right procedure is very important. From a mathematical viewpoint these choice problems correspond to non-linear optimization and are therefore extremely difficult. In this project, a new mathematical formalism (based on group theory) is developed that allows us to solve the problem of optimal choice and thus: (1) explain why the existing choices are really the best (in some situations); (2) explain a rather mysterious fact that fuzzy control (i.e., control based on the experts' knowledge) is often better than the control by these same experts; and (3) give choice recommendations for the cases when traditional choices do not work.

  3. Expert searching in public health

    PubMed Central

    Alpi, Kristine M.

    2005-01-01

    Objective: The article explores the characteristics of public health information needs and the resources available to address those needs that distinguish it as an area of searching requiring particular expertise. Methods: Public health searching activities from reference questions and literature search requests at a large, urban health department library were reviewed to identify the challenges in finding relevant public health information. Results: The terminology of the information request frequently differed from the vocabularies available in the databases. Searches required the use of multiple databases and/or Web resources with diverse interfaces. Issues of the scope and features of the databases relevant to the search questions were considered. Conclusion: Expert searching in public health differs from other types of expert searching in the subject breadth and technical demands of the databases to be searched, the fluidity and lack of standardization of the vocabulary, and the relative scarcity of high-quality investigations at the appropriate level of geographic specificity. Health sciences librarians require a broad exposure to databases, gray literature, and public health terminology to perform as expert searchers in public health. PMID:15685281

  4. Antagonist-Elicited Cannabis Withdrawal in Humans

    PubMed Central

    Gorelick, David A.; Goodwin, Robert S.; Schwilke, Eugene; Schwope, David M.; Darwin, William D.; Kelly, Deanna L.; McMahon, Robert P.; Liu, Fang; Ortemann-Renon, Catherine; Bonnet, Denis; Huestis, Marilyn A.

    2013-01-01

    Cannabinoid CB1 receptor antagonists have potential therapeutic benefits, but antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal has not been reported in humans. Ten male daily cannabis smokers received 8 days of increasingly frequent 20-mg oral Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) dosages (40–120 mg/d) around-the-clock to standardize cannabis dependence while residing on a closed research unit. On the ninth day, double-blind placebo or 20- (suggested therapeutic dose) or 40-mg oral rimonabant, a CB1-cannabinoid receptor antagonist, was administered. Cannabis withdrawal signs and symptoms were assessed before and for 23.5 hours after rimonabant. Rimonabant, THC, and 11-hydroxy-THC plasma concentrations were quantified by mass spectrometry. The first 6 subjects received 20-mg rimonabant (1 placebo); the remaining 4 subjects received 40-mg rimonabant (1 placebo). Fourteen subjects enrolled; 10 completed before premature termination because of withdrawal of rimonabant from clinical development. Three of 5 subjects in the 20-mg group, 1 of 3 in the 40-mg group, and none of 2 in the placebo group met the prespecified withdrawal criterion of 150% increase or higher in at least 3 visual analog scales for cannabis withdrawal symptoms within 3 hours of rimonabant dosing. There were no significant associations between visual analog scale, heart rate, or blood pressure changes and peak rimonabant plasma concentration, area-under-the-rimonabant-concentration-by-time curve (0–8 hours), or peak rimonabant/THC or rimonabant/(THC + 11-hydroxy-THC) plasma concentration ratios. In summary, prespecified criteria for antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal were not observed at the 20- or 40-mg rimonabant doses. These data do not preclude antagonist-elicited withdrawal at higher rimonabant doses. PMID:21869692

  5. Antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal in humans.

    PubMed

    Gorelick, David A; Goodwin, Robert S; Schwilke, Eugene; Schwope, David M; Darwin, William D; Kelly, Deanna L; McMahon, Robert P; Liu, Fang; Ortemann-Renon, Catherine; Bonnet, Denis; Huestis, Marilyn A

    2011-10-01

    Cannabinoid CB1 receptor antagonists have potential therapeutic benefits, but antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal has not been reported in humans. Ten male daily cannabis smokers received 8 days of increasingly frequent 20-mg oral Δ⁹-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) dosages (40-120 mg/d) around-the-clock to standardize cannabis dependence while residing on a closed research unit. On the ninth day, double-blind placebo or 20- (suggested therapeutic dose) or 40-mg oral rimonabant, a CB1-cannabinoid receptor antagonist, was administered. Cannabis withdrawal signs and symptoms were assessed before and for 23.5 hours after rimonabant. Rimonabant, THC, and 11-hydroxy-THC plasma concentrations were quantified by mass spectrometry. The first 6 subjects received 20-mg rimonabant (1 placebo); the remaining 4 subjects received 40-mg rimonabant (1 placebo). Fourteen subjects enrolled; 10 completed before premature termination because of withdrawal of rimonabant from clinical development. Three of 5 subjects in the 20-mg group, 1 of 3 in the 40-mg group, and none of 2 in the placebo group met the prespecified withdrawal criterion of 150% increase or higher in at least 3 visual analog scales for cannabis withdrawal symptoms within 3 hours of rimonabant dosing. There were no significant associations between visual analog scale, heart rate, or blood pressure changes and peak rimonabant plasma concentration, area-under-the-rimonabant-concentration-by-time curve (0-8 hours), or peak rimonabant/THC or rimonabant/(THC + 11-hydroxy-THC) plasma concentration ratios. In summary, prespecified criteria for antagonist-elicited cannabis withdrawal were not observed at the 20- or 40-mg rimonabant doses. These data do not preclude antagonist-elicited withdrawal at higher rimonabant doses.

  6. The Appropriateness of Renal Angioplasty. The ANPARIA Software: A Multidisciplinary Expert Panel Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Gerbaud, Laurent; Manhes, Geraud; Debourse, Juliette; Gouby, Gerald Glanddier, Phyllis-Yvonne; Vader, John-Paul; Boyer, Louis Deteix, Patrice

    2008-11-15

    Percutaneous transluminal renal angioplasty (PTRA) is an invasive technique that is costly and involves the risk of complications and renal failure. The ability of PTRA to reduce the administration of antihypertensive drugs has been demonstrated. A potentially greater benefit, which nevertheless remains to be proven, is the deferral of the need for chronic dialysis. The aim of the study (ANPARIA) was to assess the appropriateness of PTRA to impact on the evolution of renal function. A standardized expert panel method was used to assess the appropriateness of medical treatment alone or medical treatment with revascularization in various clinical situations. The choice of revascularization by either PTRA or surgery was examined for each clinical situation. Analysis was based on a detailed literature review and on systematically elicited expert opinion, which were obtained during a two-round modified Delphi process. The study provides detailed responses on the appropriateness of PTRA for 1848 distinct clinical scenarios. Depending on the major clinical presentation, appropriateness of revascularization varied from 32% to 75% for individual scenarios (overal 48%). Uncertainty as to revascularization was 41% overall. When revascularization was appropriate, PTRA was favored over surgery in 94% of the scenarios, except in certain cases of aortic atheroma where sugery was the preferred choice. Kidney size >7 cm, absence of coexisting disease, acute renal failure, a high degree of stenosis ({>=}70%), and absence of multiple arteries were identified as predictive variables of favorable appropriateness ratings. Situations such as cardiac failure with pulmonary edema or acute thrombosis of the renal artery were defined as indications for PTRA. This study identified clinical situations in which PTRA or surgery are appropriate for renal artery disease. We built a decision tree which can be used via Internet: the ANPARIA software (http://www

  7. Eliciting promises from children reduces cheating.

    PubMed

    Heyman, Gail D; Fu, Genyue; Lin, Jianyan; Qian, Miao K; Lee, Kang

    2015-11-01

    Widespread cheating can undermine rules that are necessary for maintaining social order. Preventing cheating can be a challenge, especially with regard to children, who as a result of their limited executive function skills may have particular difficulty with resisting temptation to cheat. We examined one approach designed to help children resist this temptation: eliciting a verbal commitment to not cheat. We tested 4- to 7-year-olds (total N = 330) and found that starting at 5 years of age, a verbal commitment to not cheat led to a substantial reduction in cheating. The results suggest that verbal commitments can be used to help children overcome temptations and comply with rules.

  8. Cataloging Expert Systems: Optimism and Frustrated Reality.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olmstadt, William J.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses artificial intelligence and attempts to catalog expert systems. Topics include the nature of expertise; examples of cataloging expert systems; barriers to implementation; and problems, including total automation, cataloging expertise, priorities, and system design. (LRW)

  9. Galaxy Classification: Citizen Scientists versus Experts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kautsch, Stefan J.; Vazquez, Richard; Phung, Chau; VanHilst, Michael; Castro, Victor H.; Bizyaev, Dmitry

    2016-01-01

    We present the differences of morphological galaxy classification between non-experts and experts. The non-experts are represented by college students and a retired adult community, who use an online application to visually classify galaxies selected from a galaxy morphology catalog. We find that the non-expert group lags the expert classification by one Hubble type behind, for instance, the non-experts classify a set of galaxies with Sb, while the experts classify the same set as Sc. We believe the reason is because the Hubble sequence is increasing the asymmetric structures towards later types. Our results show that the experts have the ability to identify more detailed structures, which the laymen commonly do not recognize.

  10. A middle man approach to knowledge acquisition in expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jordan, Janice A.; Lin, Min-Jin; Mayer, Richard J.; Sterle, Mark E.

    1990-01-01

    The Weed Control Advisor (WCA) is a robust expert system that has been successfully implemented on an IBM AT class microcomputer in CLIPS. The goal of the WCA was to demonstrate the feasibility of providing an economical, efficient, user friendly system through which Texas rice producers could obtain expert level knowledge regarding herbicide application for weed control. During the development phase of the WCA, an improved knowledge acquisition method which we call the Middle Man Approach (MMA) was applied to facilitate the communication process between the domain experts and the knowledge engineer. The MMA served to circumvent the problems associated with the more traditional forms of knowledge acquisition by placing the Middle Man, a semi-expert in the problem domain with some computer expertise, at the site of system development. The middle man was able to contribute to system development in two major ways. First, the Middle Man had experience working in rice production and could assume many of the responsibilities normally performed by the domain experts such as explaining the background of the problem domain and determining the important relations. Second, the Middle Man was familiar with computers and worked closely with the system developers to update the rules after the domain experts reviewed the prototype, contribute to the help menus and explanation portions of the expert system, conduct the testing that is required to insure that the expert system gives the expected results answer questions in a timely way, help the knowledge engineer structure the domain knowledge into a useable form, and provide insight into the end user's profile which helped in the development of the simple user friendly interface. The final results were not only that both time expended and costs were greatly reduced by using the MMA, but the quality of the system was improved. This papa will introduce the WCA system and then discuss traditional knowledge acquisition along with

  11. Voice Pitch Elicited Frequency Following Response in Chinese Elderlies

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shuo; Hu, Jiong; Dong, Ruijuan; Liu, Dongxin; Chen, Jing; Musacchia, Gabriella; Liu, Bo

    2016-01-01

    Background: Perceptual and electrophysiological studies have found reduced speech discrimination in quiet and noisy environment, delayed neural timing, decreased neural synchrony, and decreased temporal processing ability in elderlies, even those with normal hearing. However, recent studies have also demonstrated that language experience and auditory training enhance the temporal dynamics of sound encoding in the auditory brainstem response (ABR). The purpose of this study was to explore the pitch processing ability at the brainstem level in an aging population that has a tonal language background. Method: Mandarin speaking younger (n = 12) and older (n = 12) adults were recruited for this study. All participants had normal audiometric test results and normal suprathreshold click-evoked ABR. To record frequency following responses (FFRs) elicited by Mandarin lexical tones, two Mandarin Chinese syllables with different fundamental frequency pitch contours (Flat Tone and Falling Tone) were presented at 70 dB SPL. Fundamental frequencies (f0) of both the stimulus and the responses were extracted and compared to individual brainstem responses. Two indices were used to examine different aspects of pitch processing ability at the brainstem level: Pitch Strength and Pitch Correlation. Results: Lexical tone elicited FFR were overall weaker in the older adult group compared to their younger adult counterpart. Measured by Pitch Strength and Pitch Correlation, statistically significant group differences were only found when the tone with a falling f0 (Falling Tone) were used as the stimulus. Conclusion: Results of this study demonstrated that in a tonal language speaking population, pitch processing ability at the brainstem level of older adults are not as strong and robust as their younger counterparts. Findings of this study are consistent with previous reports on brainstem responses of older adults whose native language is English. On the other hand, lexical tone elicited

  12. Expert systems applied to spacecraft fire safety

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Richard L.; Kashiwagi, Takashi

    1989-01-01

    Expert systems are problem-solving programs that combine a knowledge base and a reasoning mechanism to simulate a human expert. The development of an expert system to manage fire safety in spacecraft, in particular the NASA Space Station Freedom, is difficult but clearly advantageous in the long-term. Some needs in low-gravity flammability characteristics, ventilating-flow effects, fire detection, fire extinguishment, and decision models, all necessary to establish the knowledge base for an expert system, are discussed.

  13. Isolated sleep paralysis elicited by sleep interruption.

    PubMed

    Takeuchi, T; Miyasita, A; Sasaki, Y; Inugami, M; Fukuda, K

    1992-06-01

    We elicited isolated sleep paralysis (ISP) from normal subjects by a nocturnal sleep interruption schedule. On four experimental nights, 16 subjects had their sleep interrupted for 60 minutes by forced awakening at the time when 40 minutes of nonrapid eye movement (NREM) sleep had elapsed from the termination of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep in the first or third sleep cycle. This schedule produced a sleep onset REM period (SOREMP) after the interruption at a high rate of 71.9%. We succeeded in eliciting six episodes of ISP in the sleep interruptions performed (9.4%). All episodes of ISP except one occurred from SOREMP, indicating a close correlation between ISP and SOREMP. We recorded verbal reports about ISP experiences and recorded the polysomnogram (PSG) during ISP. All of the subjects with ISP experienced inability to move and were simultaneously aware of lying in the laboratory. All but one reported auditory/visual hallucinations and unpleasant emotions. PSG recordings during ISP were characterized by a REM/W stage dissociated state, i.e. abundant alpha electroencephalographs and persistence of muscle atonia shown by the tonic electromyogram. Judging from the PSG recordings, ISP differs from other dissociated states such as lucid dreaming, nocturnal panic attacks and REM sleep behavior disorders. We compare some of the sleep variables between ISP and non-ISP nights. We also discuss the similarities and differences between ISP and sleep paralysis in narcolepsy.

  14. Exploring Technology as a Tool for Eliciting and Encouraging Beginning Teacher Reflection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Romano, Molly; Schwartz, Jonathan

    2005-01-01

    As beginning teachers experience and process new information during their initial acts of teaching, reflection is an inherent part of the process. The following study was designed to explore technology as a tool for reflection by introducing first-year teachers to three technology tools designed to elicit and encourage their reflections on…

  15. Mine detection training based on expert skill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Staszewski, James J.; Davison, Alan

    2000-08-01

    Studies show that soldiers' mine detection capabilities with the PSS-12 hand-held detector are substandard and that their probabilities of detecting (PD) low-metal mines are dangerously low. Highly experienced PSS-12 operators, however, achieve PDS over 0.90 on high- and low-metal anti- tank (AT) and anti-personnel (AP) mines. Significantly, experts' detection techniques differ from conventional military PSS-12 operating procedures. We report three studies investigating whether instruction based on expert skill could bridge the observed performance gap. Basic research on human expertise has shown that instruction based on detailed scientific analyses of experts' behaviors and thought processes boosts skill acquisition dramatically. These studies tested the effects of an experimental detection training program based on knowledge and techniques learned from analysis of PSS-12 expertise. In Study I soldiers who had completed standard mine detection training participated as operators/trainees. This experiment used a pretest-posttest design. Mine simulants served as targets in testing gand training. Targets simulate d5 different mines and represented high- and low-metal AT and AP mine types. Pretest performance failed to distinguish the treatment and control groups. Both achieved very low PDs on low metal mines. Treatment-group soldiers then received approximately 15 hours of experimental, hands-on training. Posttest results showed that the treatment groups PD on minimal metal targets was more than 6 times that of the control group. Study 2 tested a subset of the treated soldiers in the same setting, now wearing body armor. Results replicated those of Study 1. Study 3 tested treatment group soldiers on real mine targets. Several mines from each mine type were used. The surface of the test lanes was expected to increase detection difficulty. Soldiers nonetheless achieved an aggregate PD of 0.97 and showed significant improvement in detecting low-metal mines.

  16. Thinking outside of the box: the role of environmental adaptation in the acquisition of skilled and expert performance.

    PubMed

    Eccles, David W

    2006-10-01

    According to current theories of expert performance, experts gain an advantage by acquiring through practice cognitive skills and strategies that increase the efficiency with which information specific to their domain is processed. Consequently, experts are able to circumvent natural processing limitations. In this study, a description is provided of how experts make use of strategies that involve adapting physical elements of their domain environment to reduce cognitive workload during performance. Telephone interviews were conducted with 15 expert orienteers and six coaches of national orienteering squads about how expert orienteers carry and arrange their navigational equipment while orienteering. A content analysis of the interview data revealed that expert orienteers adapt their navigational equipment to reduce the cognitive and, more specifically, attentional workload during performance. A theory of how experts circumvent natural processing limitations requires consideration of the role of such strategies.

  17. Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

    2011-01-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…

  18. The chiropractor as an expert witness

    PubMed Central

    Chapman-Smith, D. A.

    1984-01-01

    This paper examines the professional status of the chiropractor as an expert witness in Canada. It commences with an outline of the relevant law then considers the circumstances which affect whether or not a chiropractor’s testimony in a particular instance will be admitted as expert and given weight against conflicting expert evidence. There is brief discussion of related insurance issues.

  19. Expert judgments about RD&D and the future of nuclear energy.

    PubMed

    Anadón, Laura D; Bosetti, Valentina; Bunn, Matthew; Catenacci, Michela; Lee, Audrey

    2012-11-06

    Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. We used a novel elicitation approach which combined individual and group elicitation. With no change from current RD&D funding levels, experts on average expected current (Gen. III/III+) designs to be somewhat more expensive in 2030 than they were in 2010, and they expected the next generation of designs (Gen. IV) to be more expensive still as of 2030. Projected costs of proposed small modular reactors (SMRs) were similar to those of Gen. IV systems. The experts almost unanimously recommended large increases in government support for nuclear RD&D (generally 2-3 times current spending). The majority expected that such RD&D would have only a modest effect on cost, but would improve performance in other areas, such as safety, waste management, and uranium resource utilization. The U.S. and E.U. experts were in relative agreement regarding how government RD&D funds should be allocated, placing particular focus on very high temperature reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, fuels and materials, and fuel cycle technologies.

  20. Expert Meeting Report. Foundations Research Results

    SciTech Connect

    Ojczyk, C.; Huelman, P.; Carmody, J.

    2013-05-01

    The NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership held an expert meeting on Foundations–Research Results on November 15, 2011, in Minneapolis, MN. Audience participation was actively encouraged during each presentation to uncover needs and promote dialog among researchers and industry professionals. Key results were: greater understanding of the role of moisture transport through foundation and insulation materials and its potential impact on building durability; greater understanding of the role of foundation type in the process of selecting an insulation system for energy performance and building durability; need for research to quantify the risks associated with insulation processes to better enable users to weigh costs and benefits against the existing conditions of a home; need for improved performance modeling capabilities that address variations in foundation types and soil conditions.

  1. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

    1994-09-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature.

  2. Stochastic population forecasting based on combinations of expert evaluations within the Bayesian paradigm.

    PubMed

    Billari, Francesco C; Graziani, Rebecca; Melilli, Eugenio

    2014-10-01

    This article suggests a procedure to derive stochastic population forecasts adopting an expert-based approach. As in previous work by Billari et al. (2012), experts are required to provide evaluations, in the form of conditional and unconditional scenarios, on summary indicators of the demographic components determining the population evolution: that is, fertility, mortality, and migration. Here, two main purposes are pursued. First, the demographic components are allowed to have some kind of dependence. Second, as a result of the existence of a body of shared information, possible correlations among experts are taken into account. In both cases, the dependence structure is not imposed by the researcher but rather is indirectly derived through the scenarios elicited from the experts. To address these issues, the method is based on a mixture model, within the so-called Supra-Bayesian approach, according to which expert evaluations are treated as data. The derived posterior distribution for the demographic indicators of interest is used as forecasting distribution, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is designed to approximate this posterior. This article provides the questionnaire designed by the authors to collect expert opinions. Finally, an application to the forecast of the Italian population from 2010 to 2065 is proposed.

  3. Explanation production by expert planners

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bridges, Susan; Jhannes, James D.

    1988-01-01

    Although the explanation capability of expert systems is usually listed as one of the distinguishing characteristics of these systems, the explanation facilities of most existing systems are quite primitive. Computer generated explanations are typically produced from canned text or by direct translation of the knowledge structures. Explanations produced in this manner bear little resemblance to those produced by humans for similar tasks. The focus of our research in explanation is the production of justifications for decisions by expert planning systems. An analysis of justifications written by people for planning tasks has been taken as the starting point. The purpose of this analysis is two-fold. First, analysis of the information content of the justifications will provide a basis for deciding what knowledge must be represented if human-like justifications are to be produced. Second, an analysis of the textual organization of the justifications will be used in the development of a mechanism for selecting and organizing the knowledge to be included in a computer-produced explanation. This paper describes a preliminary analysis done of justifications written by people for a planning task. It is clear that these justifications differ significantly from those that would be produced by an expert system by tracing the firing of production rules. The results from the text analysis have been used to develop an augmented phrase structured grammar (APSG) describing the organization of the justifications. The grammar was designed to provide a computationally feasible method for determining textual organization that will allow the necessary information to be communicated in a cohesive manner.

  4. Fuzzy expert systems using CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Le, Thach C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes a CLIPS-based fuzzy expert system development environment called FCLIPS and illustrates its application to the simulated cart-pole balancing problem. FCLIPS is a straightforward extension of CLIPS without any alteration to the CLIPS internal structures. It makes use of the object-oriented and module features in CLIPS version 6.0 for the implementation of fuzzy logic concepts. Systems of varying degrees of mixed Boolean and fuzzy rules can be implemented in CLIPS. Design and implementation issues of FCLIPS will also be discussed.

  5. Translation Model Decision Differences between Expert (Native or Near-Native) Target Language Speakers and Non-Expert (Non-Native or Second) Target Language Speakers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eckert, Doug

    A study of the translation process compared the decisions that native speakers (experts) and non-native speakers (non-experts) made that influenced resulting translations. Subjects were 40 students, graduate students, and faculty in a university foreign language department. English language proficiency was measured for native speakers by using the…

  6. The role of the expert witness.

    PubMed

    Jerrold, Laurance

    2007-08-01

    The role of expert witnesses in medical malpractice litigation is often misunderstood. Much maligned, the expert has been the subject of castigation by a range of people, from his professional colleagues to the jurists who preside over his testimony. From an academic perspective, the expert witness is a necessary evil, and his denigration is his own doing; for the expert is a neutral character who creates his own professional persona. This purpose of this article is to serve as a primer for those interested in understanding the role that the expert is supposed to play in litigation, and the factors surrounding his activities.

  7. An expert system to perform on-line controller tuning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan S.

    1990-01-01

    An expert system which tunes a Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controller on-line for a single-input-single-output multiple-lag process with dead time is described. The expert system examines features of the previous transient responses and their corresponding sets of controller parameters. It determines a new set of controller gains to obtain a more desirable time response. This technique can be used to determine and implement a different set of PID gains for each operating regime and, once in steady state, the system can be used to find optimal parameters for load disturbance rejection. The expert system can be applied to any system of the specified form (aerospace, industrial, etc.) and can be expanded to include additional process models.

  8. An expert system to perform on-line controller tuning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan

    1990-01-01

    An expert system which tunes a proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller online for a single-input-single-output multiple-lag process with dead time is described. The expert system examines features of the previous transient responses and their corresponding sets of controller parameters. It determines a new set of controller gains to obtain a more desirable time response. This technique can be used to determine and implement a different set of PID gains for each operating regime and, once in steady state, the system can be used to find optimal parameters for load disturbance rejection. The expert system can be applied to any system of the specified form (aerospace, industrial, etc.) and can be expanded to include additional process models.

  9. Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles' nesting grounds.

    PubMed

    Fuentes, M M P B; Cinner, J E

    2010-12-01

    Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles' terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world's largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles' reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern.

  10. CRN5EXP: Expert system for statistical quality control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hentea, Mariana

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of the Expert System CRN5EXP is to assist in checking the quality of the coils at two very important mills: Hot Rolling and Cold Rolling in a steel plant. The system interprets the statistical quality control charts, diagnoses and predicts the quality of the steel. Measurements of process control variables are recorded in a database and sample statistics such as the mean and the range are computed and plotted on a control chart. The chart is analyzed through patterns using the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) and a forward chaining technique to reach a conclusion about the causes of defects and to take management measures for the improvement of the quality control techniques. The Expert System combines the certainty factors associated with the process control variables to predict the quality of the steel. The paper presents the approach to extract data from the database, the reason to combine certainty factors, the architecture and the use of the Expert System. However, the interpretation of control charts patterns requires the human expert's knowledge and lends to Expert Systems rules.

  11. Assessing pragmatic skills in elicited production.

    PubMed

    de Villiers, Peter

    2004-02-01

    In developing a test of pragmatic skills for children ages 4 to 9 years, we focused on a number of functional language skills that are important for children's success in early schooling and for the development of fluent reading and writing. They included (1) wh-question asking, (2) communicative role taking, (3) linking events in a cohesive narrative, and (4) articulating the mental states of the characters in a story. All of the proposed items provide specific referential support and pragmatic motivation for the forms and content to be produced by the child. The pictured materials and elicitation prompts constrain the range of appropriate utterances, so the children's productions are more easily scored than an open-ended spontaneous speech sample. All tasks described show a clear developmental trend, a clear separation between the performance of typically developing and language-impaired children, and no performance differences between African American English- and Mainstream American English-speaking children.

  12. Differentiating experts' anticipatory skills in beach volleyball.

    PubMed

    Cañal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J P

    2011-12-01

    In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos of attack sequences that were occluded at three different times and to predict the outcome of these situations. Results showed that expert players and coaches (who were both perceptual-motor experts) outperformed the expert referees (who were watching experts but did not have the same motor expertise) and the control group in the latest occlusion condition (i.e., at spiker-ball contact). This finding suggests that perceptual-motor expertise may contribute to successful action anticipation in beach volleyball.

  13. System for empirical experimentation with expert knowledge

    SciTech Connect

    Politakis, P.; Weiss, S.M.

    1982-01-01

    SEEK is a system which has been developed to give interactive advice about rule refinement during the design of an expert system. The advice takes the form of suggestions for possible experiments in generalizing or specializing rules in an expert model that has been specified based on reasoning rules cited by the expert. Case experience, in the form of stored cases with known conclusions, is used to interactively guide the expert in refining the rules of a model. The design framework of SEEK consists of a tabular model for expressing expert-modeled rules and a general consultation system for applying a model to specific cases. This approach has proven particularly valuable in assisting the expert in a domain where two diagnoses are difficult to distinguish. Examples are given from an expert consultation system being developed for rheumatology. 12 references.

  14. Species identification by experts and non-experts: comparing images from field guides

    PubMed Central

    Austen, G. E.; Bindemann, M.; Griffiths, R. A.; Roberts, D. L.

    2016-01-01

    Accurate species identification is fundamental when recording ecological data. However, the ability to correctly identify organisms visually is rarely questioned. We investigated how experts and non-experts compared in the identification of bumblebees, a group of insects of considerable conservation concern. Experts and non-experts were asked whether two concurrent bumblebee images depicted the same or two different species. Overall accuracy was below 60% and comparable for experts and non-experts. However, experts were more consistent in their answers when the same images were repeated, and more cautious in committing to a definitive answer. Our findings demonstrate the difficulty of correctly identifying bumblebees using images from field guides. Such error rates need to be accounted for when interpreting species data, whether or not they have been collected by experts. We suggest that investigation of how experts and non-experts make observations should be incorporated into study design, and could be used to improve training in species identification. PMID:27644140

  15. Expert system validation in prolog

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stock, Todd; Stachowitz, Rolf; Chang, Chin-Liang; Combs, Jacqueline

    1988-01-01

    An overview of the Expert System Validation Assistant (EVA) is being implemented in Prolog at the Lockheed AI Center. Prolog was chosen to facilitate rapid prototyping of the structure and logic checkers and since February 1987, we have implemented code to check for irrelevance, subsumption, duplication, deadends, unreachability, and cycles. The architecture chosen is extremely flexible and expansible, yet concise and complementary with the normal interactive style of Prolog. The foundation of the system is in the connection graph representation. Rules and facts are modeled as nodes in the graph and arcs indicate common patterns between rules. The basic activity of the validation system is then a traversal of the connection graph, searching for various patterns the system recognizes as erroneous. To aid in specifying these patterns, a metalanguage is developed, providing the user with the basic facilities required to reason about the expert system. Using the metalanguage, the user can, for example, give the Prolog inference engine the goal of finding inconsistent conclusions among the rules, and Prolog will search the graph intantiations which can match the definition of inconsistency. Examples of code for some of the checkers are provided and the algorithms explained. Technical highlights include automatic construction of a connection graph, demonstration of the use of metalanguage, the A* algorithm modified to detect all unique cycles, general-purpose stacks in Prolog, and a general-purpose database browser with pattern completion.

  16. Expert system for groundwater modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Venoge, T.P. de; Stauffer, T.B.; Medina, M.; Jacobs, T.

    1994-12-31

    Hazardous waste site remedial investigations and feasibility studies generally involve some degree of groundwater modeling. A plethora of models exist and most models are difficult to use. An expert system has been developed to lead the user to the appropriate model(s) based on responses to questions about site conditions and data availability. The system is menu driven, user friendly, and provides assistance in estimating input parameters where field measurements are lacking. The system contains twelve models, both analytical and numerical models, that are in the public domain. Some of the models included in the system are MOC, MODFLOW, BIOPLUME, RESSQ, TDAST and PLUME2D. Preprocessors and post processors have been written to permit easy data input and to provide understandable and interpretable data output. There are two versions of the expert system that are available. One version is a UNIX based system that works through the windows environment and provides excellent graphics capabilities. The other version is DOS based and will run on a 386 processor or higher system with 10 megabytes of available hard disk space.

  17. Perceiving dance: schematic expectations guide experts' scanning of a contemporary dance film.

    PubMed

    Stevens, Catherine; Winskel, Heather; Howell, Clare; Vidal, Lyne-Marine; Latimer, Cyril; Milne-Home, Josephine

    2010-01-01

    Eye fixations and saccades (eye movements) of expert and novice dance observers were compared to determine the effect of acquired expectations on observations of human movement, body morphology, and dance configurations. As hypothesized, measured fixation times of dance experts were significantly shorter than those of novices. In a second viewing of the same sequences, novices recorded significantly shorter fixations than those recorded during viewing session 1. Saccades recorded from experts were significantly faster than those of novices. Although both experts and novices fixated background regions, most likely making use of extrafoveal or peripheral vision to anticipate movement and configurations, novices fixated background regions significantly more than experts in viewing session 1. Their enhanced speed of visual processing suggests that dance experts are adept at anticipating movement and rapidly processing material, probably aided by acquired schemata or expectations in long-term memory and recognition of body and movement configurations.

  18. StarPower: Elevating Prospective Student Interest through Expert and Celebrity Endorsements--Relevant Message, Relevant Media

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tucciarone, Kristy

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates how universities can increase the effectiveness of the search process by featuring in their advertisements expert and celebrity endorsers who attended the institution. How can universities gain the attention of prospective students using the star power of experts and celebrities? Experts and celebrities promoting a…

  19. Exploring Self-regulation of More or Less Expert College-Age Video Game Players: A Sequential Explanatory Design.

    PubMed

    Yilmaz Soylu, Meryem; Bruning, Roger H

    2016-01-01

    This study examined differences in self-regulation among college-age expert, moderately expert, and non-expert video game players in playing video games for fun. Winne's model of self-regulation (Winne, 2001) guided the study. The main assumption of this study was that expert video game players used more processes of self-regulation than the less-expert players. We surveyed 143 college students about their game playing frequency, habits, and use of self-regulation. Data analysis indicated that while playing recreational video games, expert gamers self-regulated more than moderately expert and non-expert players and moderately expert players used more processes of self-regulation than non-experts. Semi-structured interviews also were conducted with selected participants at each of the expertise levels. Qualitative follow-up analyses revealed five themes: (1) characteristics of expert video gamers, (2) conditions for playing a video game, (3) figuring out a game, (4) how gamers act and, (5) game context. Overall, findings indicated that playing a video game is a highly self-regulated activity and that becoming an expert video game player mobilizes multiple sets of self-regulation related skills and processes. These findings are seen as promising for educators desiring to encourage student self-regulation, because they indicate the possibility of supporting students via recreational video games by recognizing that their play includes processes of self-regulation.

  20. Exploring Self-regulation of More or Less Expert College-Age Video Game Players: A Sequential Explanatory Design

    PubMed Central

    Yilmaz Soylu, Meryem; Bruning, Roger H.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined differences in self-regulation among college-age expert, moderately expert, and non-expert video game players in playing video games for fun. Winne's model of self-regulation (Winne, 2001) guided the study. The main assumption of this study was that expert video game players used more processes of self-regulation than the less-expert players. We surveyed 143 college students about their game playing frequency, habits, and use of self-regulation. Data analysis indicated that while playing recreational video games, expert gamers self-regulated more than moderately expert and non-expert players and moderately expert players used more processes of self-regulation than non-experts. Semi-structured interviews also were conducted with selected participants at each of the expertise levels. Qualitative follow-up analyses revealed five themes: (1) characteristics of expert video gamers, (2) conditions for playing a video game, (3) figuring out a game, (4) how gamers act and, (5) game context. Overall, findings indicated that playing a video game is a highly self-regulated activity and that becoming an expert video game player mobilizes multiple sets of self-regulation related skills and processes. These findings are seen as promising for educators desiring to encourage student self-regulation, because they indicate the possibility of supporting students via recreational video games by recognizing that their play includes processes of self-regulation. PMID:27729881

  1. The nature of expertise in fingerprint matching: experts can do a lot with a little.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Matthew B; Tangen, Jason M

    2014-01-01

    Expert decision making often seems impressive, even miraculous. People with genuine expertise in a particular domain can perform quickly and accurately, and with little information. In the series of experiments presented here, we manipulate the amount of "information" available to a group of experts whose job it is to identify the source of crime scene fingerprints. In Experiment 1, we reduced the amount of information available to experts by inverting fingerprint pairs and adding visual noise. There was no evidence for an inversion effect-experts were just as accurate for inverted prints as they were for upright prints-but expert performance with artificially noisy prints was impressive. In Experiment 2, we separated matching and nonmatching print pairs in time. Experts were conservative, but they were still able to discriminate pairs of fingerprints that were separated by five-seconds, even though the task was quite different from their everyday experience. In Experiment 3, we separated the print pairs further in time to test the long-term memory of experts compared to novices. Long-term recognition memory for experts and novices was the same, with both performing around chance. In Experiment 4, we presented pairs of fingerprints quickly to experts and novices in a matching task. Experts were more accurate than novices, particularly for similar nonmatching pairs, and experts were generally more accurate when they had more time. It is clear that experts can match prints accurately when there is reduced visual information, reduced opportunity for direct comparison, and reduced time to engage in deliberate reasoning. These findings suggest that non-analytic processing accounts for a substantial portion of the variance in expert fingerprint matching accuracy. Our conclusion is at odds with general wisdom in fingerprint identification practice and formal training, and at odds with the claims and explanations that are offered in court during expert testimony.

  2. The Nature of Expertise in Fingerprint Matching: Experts Can Do a Lot with a Little

    PubMed Central

    Thompson, Matthew B.; Tangen, Jason M.

    2014-01-01

    Expert decision making often seems impressive, even miraculous. People with genuine expertise in a particular domain can perform quickly and accurately, and with little information. In the series of experiments presented here, we manipulate the amount of “information” available to a group of experts whose job it is to identify the source of crime scene fingerprints. In Experiment 1, we reduced the amount of information available to experts by inverting fingerprint pairs and adding visual noise. There was no evidence for an inversion effect—experts were just as accurate for inverted prints as they were for upright prints—but expert performance with artificially noisy prints was impressive. In Experiment 2, we separated matching and nonmatching print pairs in time. Experts were conservative, but they were still able to discriminate pairs of fingerprints that were separated by five-seconds, even though the task was quite different from their everyday experience. In Experiment 3, we separated the print pairs further in time to test the long-term memory of experts compared to novices. Long-term recognition memory for experts and novices was the same, with both performing around chance. In Experiment 4, we presented pairs of fingerprints quickly to experts and novices in a matching task. Experts were more accurate than novices, particularly for similar nonmatching pairs, and experts were generally more accurate when they had more time. It is clear that experts can match prints accurately when there is reduced visual information, reduced opportunity for direct comparison, and reduced time to engage in deliberate reasoning. These findings suggest that non-analytic processing accounts for a substantial portion of the variance in expert fingerprint matching accuracy. Our conclusion is at odds with general wisdom in fingerprint identification practice and formal training, and at odds with the claims and explanations that are offered in court during expert testimony

  3. Embedding Human Expert Cognition Into Autonomous UAS Trajectory Planning.

    PubMed

    Narayan, Pritesh; Meyer, Patrick; Campbell, Duncan

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents a new approach for the inclusion of human expert cognition into autonomous trajectory planning for unmanned aerial systems (UASs) operating in low-altitude environments. During typical UAS operations, multiple objectives may exist; therefore, the use of multicriteria decision aid techniques can potentially allow for convergence to trajectory solutions which better reflect overall mission requirements. In that context, additive multiattribute value theory has been applied to optimize trajectories with respect to multiple objectives. A graphical user interface was developed to allow for knowledge capture from a human decision maker (HDM) through simulated decision scenarios. The expert decision data gathered are converted into value functions and corresponding criteria weightings using utility additive theory. The inclusion of preferences elicited from HDM data within an automated decision system allows for the generation of trajectories which more closely represent the candidate HDM decision preferences. This approach has been demonstrated in this paper through simulation using a fixed-wing UAS operating in low-altitude environments.

  4. NASA ground terminal communication equipment automated fault isolation expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tang, Y. K.; Wetzel, C. R.

    1990-01-01

    The prototype expert systems are described that diagnose the Distribution and Switching System I and II (DSS1 and DSS2), Statistical Multiplexers (SM), and Multiplexer and Demultiplexer systems (MDM) at the NASA Ground Terminal (NGT). A system level fault isolation expert system monitors the activities of a selected data stream, verifies that the fault exists in the NGT and identifies the faulty equipment. Equipment level fault isolation expert systems are invoked to isolate the fault to a Line Replaceable Unit (LRU) level. Input and sometimes output data stream activities for the equipment are available. The system level fault isolation expert system compares the equipment input and output status for a data stream and performs loopback tests (if necessary) to isolate the faulty equipment. The equipment level fault isolation system utilizes the process of elimination and/or the maintenance personnel's fault isolation experience stored in its knowledge base. The DSS1, DSS2 and SM fault isolation systems, using the knowledge of the current equipment configuration and the equipment circuitry issues a set of test connections according to the predefined rules. The faulty component or board can be identified by the expert system by analyzing the test results. The MDM fault isolation system correlates the failure symptoms with the faulty component based on maintenance personnel experience. The faulty component can be determined by knowing the failure symptoms. The DSS1, DSS2, SM, and MDM equipment simulators are implemented in PASCAL. The DSS1 fault isolation expert system was converted to C language from VP-Expert and integrated into the NGT automation software for offline switch diagnoses. Potentially, the NGT fault isolation algorithms can be used for the DSS1, SM, amd MDM located at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC).

  5. Elicitation: a tool for enriching the bioactive composition of foods.

    PubMed

    Baenas, Nieves; García-Viguera, Cristina; Moreno, Diego A

    2014-09-01

    Elicitation is a good strategy to induce physiological changes and stimulate defense or stress-induced responses in plants. The elicitor treatments trigger the synthesis of phytochemical compounds in fruits, vegetables and herbs. These metabolites have been widely investigated as bioactive compounds responsible of plant cell adaptation to the environment, specific organoleptic properties of foods, and protective effects in human cells against oxidative processes in the development of neurodegenerative and cardiovascular diseases and certain types of cancer. Biotic (biological origin), abiotic (chemical or physical origin) elicitors and phytohormones have been applied alone or in combinations, in hydroponic solutions or sprays, and in different selected time points of the plant growth or during post-harvest. Understanding how plant tissues and their specific secondary metabolic pathways respond to specific treatments with elicitors would be the basis for designing protocols to enhance the production of secondary metabolites, in order to produce quality and healthy fresh foods.

  6. Experts bodies, experts minds: How physical and mental training shape the brain

    PubMed Central

    Debarnot, Ursula; Sperduti, Marco; Di Rienzo, Franck; Guillot, Aymeric

    2014-01-01

    Skill learning is the improvement in perceptual, cognitive, or motor performance following practice. Expert performance levels can be achieved with well-organized knowledge, using sophisticated and specific mental representations and cognitive processing, applying automatic sequences quickly and efficiently, being able to deal with large amounts of information, and many other challenging task demands and situations that otherwise paralyze the performance of novices. The neural reorganizations that occur with expertise reflect the optimization of the neurocognitive resources to deal with the complex computational load needed to achieve peak performance. As such, capitalizing on neuronal plasticity, brain modifications take place over time-practice and during the consolidation process. One major challenge is to investigate the neural substrates and cognitive mechanisms engaged in expertise, and to define “expertise” from its neural and cognitive underpinnings. Recent insights showed that many brain structures are recruited during task performance, but only activity in regions related to domain-specific knowledge distinguishes experts from novices. The present review focuses on three expertise domains placed across a motor to mental gradient of skill learning: sequential motor skill, mental simulation of the movement (motor imagery), and meditation as a paradigmatic example of “pure” mental training. We first describe results on each specific domain from the initial skill acquisition to expert performance, including recent results on the corresponding underlying neural mechanisms. We then discuss differences and similarities between these domains with the aim to identify the highlights of the neurocognitive processes underpinning expertise, and conclude with suggestions for future research. PMID:24847236

  7. Expert-System Consultant To Operating Personnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heard, Astrid E.; Pinkowski, Patrick P.; Adler, Richard M.; Hosken, R. Bruce

    1992-01-01

    Artificial intelligence aids engineers and technicians in controlling and monitoring complicated systems. Operations Analyst for Distributed Systems (OPERA) software is developmental suite of expert-system computer programs helping engineers and technicians operating from number of computer workstations to control and monitor spacecraft during prelaunch and launch phases of operation. OPERA designed to serve as consultant to operating engineers and technicians. It preprocesses incoming data, using expertise collected from conglomerate of specialists in design and operation of various parts of system. Driven by menus and mouse-activated commands. Modified versions of OPERA used in chemical-processing plants, factories, banks, and other enterprises in which there are distributed-computer systems including computers that monitor or control other computers.

  8. Program for Experimentation With Expert Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Engle, S. W.

    1986-01-01

    CERBERUS is forward-chaining, knowledge-based system program useful for experimentation with expert systems. Inference-engine mechanism performs deductions according to user-supplied rule set. Information stored in intermediate area, and user interrogated only when no applicable data found in storage. Each assertion posed by CERBERUS answered with certainty ranging from 0 to 100 percent. Rule processor stops investigating applicable rules when goal reaches certainty of 95 percent or higher. Capable of operating for wide variety of domains. Sample rule files included for animal identification, pixel classification in image processing, and rudimentary car repair for novice mechanic. User supplies set of end goals or actions. System complexity decided by user's rule file. CERBERUS written in FORTRAN 77.

  9. Automated Tools for Subject Matter Expert Evaluation of Automated Scoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williamson, David M.; Bejar, Isaac I.; Sax, Anne

    2004-01-01

    As automated scoring of complex constructed-response examinations reaches operational status, the process of evaluating the quality of resultant scores, particularly in contrast to scores of expert human graders, becomes as complex as the data itself. Using a vignette from the Architectural Registration Examination (ARE), this article explores the…

  10. The Metamorphosis of Industrial Designers from Novices to Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wong, Ju-Joan; Chen, Po-Yu; Chen, Chun-Di

    2016-01-01

    Professional training for designers is crucial in the field of design studies. The characteristics of novices versus those of expert designers have been identified in the literature; however, studies exploring the issue of professional training processes in the actual workplace are not well developed. Our study addresses the topic by using…

  11. Expert Maintenance Advisor Development for Navy Shipboard Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-01-01

    Society - Swedish Al Society SFrench Al Association - United Nations Industrial Development - IEEE Technical Committee on Organization ES Applications...Estoril (EDEN) Chair: Xavier Alaman, Instituto de Ingenieria del Conocimiento, SPAIN "A Model of Handling Uncertainty in Expert Systems," 01 Zhao...for Supervisory Process Control," Xavier Alaman, Instituto de Ingenieria del Conocimiento, SPAIN - (L) INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE BASED SYSTEMS IN POWER

  12. Experts Fear Handwriting Will become a Lost Art

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zubrzycki, Jaclyn

    2012-01-01

    Educators and experts say students still need to learn penmanship, even in a digital age. Handwriting still has a place in the digital age, its proponents say, and they hoped that what they billed as a "summit" on the subject at a conference would spotlight their case for the enduring value of handwriting in the learning process. The Washington…

  13. YUCSA: A CLIPS expert database system to monitor academic performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Toptsis, Anestis A.; Ho, Frankie; Leindekar, Milton; Foon, Debra Low; Carbonaro, Mike

    1991-01-01

    The York University CLIPS Student Administrator (YUCSA), an expert database system implemented in C Language Integrated Processing System (CLIPS), for monitoring the academic performance of undergraduate students at York University, is discussed. The expert system component in the system has already been implemented for two major departments, and it is under testing and enhancement for more departments. Also, more elaborate user interfaces are under development. We describe the design and implementation of the system, problems encountered, and immediate future plans. The system has excellent maintainability and it is very efficient, taking less than one minute to complete an assessment of one student.

  14. DELTA: An Expert System for Diesel Electric Locomotive Repair

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-06-01

    for Representing Procedural Knowledge. AD-P003 924 Failure Detection Processes by Pattern Recognition and Expert Systems. AD-P003 925’ GUIDON . AD-P003...3ENT, PART NOTICE (CON’T) AD#: TITLE: AD-P003 934 Artificial Intelligence Contributibnsto, Training and Maintenance. AD-P003 935 NAVATIR1 s (Naval Air...P003 947 On the Requirements of Expert Systens-for Fault Isolation. IAcce~Sslm For NTIS GRA&T DTIC TAB ’’A e;e~ s rind sale... ;’-,:i~’. . [ A7 7: DELTA

  15. Expert judgment and uncertainty regarding the protection of imperiled species.

    PubMed

    Heeren, Alexander; Karns, Gabriel; Bruskotter, Jeremy; Toman, Eric; Wilson, Robyn; Szarek, Harmony

    2016-09-14

    Decisions concerning the appropriate listing status of species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) can be controversial even among conservationists. These decisions may determine whether a species persists in the near term and have long-lasting social and political ramifications. Given the ESA's mandate that such decisions be based on the best available science, it is important to examine what factors contribute to experts' judgments concerning the listing of species. We examined how a variety of factors (such as risk perception, value orientations, and norms) influenced experts' judgments concerning the appropriate listing status of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Experts were invited to complete an online survey examining their perceptions of the threats grizzly bears face and their listing recommendation. Although experts' assessments of the threats to this species were strongly correlated with their recommendations for listing status, this relationship did not exist when other cognitive factors were included in the model. Specifically, values related to human use of wildlife and norms (i.e., a respondent's expectation of peers' assessments) were most influential in listing status recommendations. These results suggest that experts' decisions about listing, like all human decisions, are subject to the use of heuristics (i.e., decision shortcuts). An understanding of how heuristics and related biases affect decisions under uncertainty can help inform decision making about threatened and endangered species and may be useful in designing effective processes for protection of imperiled species.

  16. A framework for building real-time expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, S. Daniel

    1991-01-01

    The Space Station Freedom is an example of complex systems that require both traditional and artificial intelligence (AI) real-time methodologies. It was mandated that Ada should be used for all new software development projects. The station also requires distributed processing. Catastrophic failures on the station can cause the transmission system to malfunction for a long period of time, during which ground-based expert systems cannot provide any assistance to the crisis situation on the station. This is even more critical for other NASA projects that would have longer transmission delays (e.g., the lunar base, Mars missions, etc.). To address these issues, a distributed agent architecture (DAA) is proposed that can support a variety of paradigms based on both traditional real-time computing and AI. The proposed testbed for DAA is an autonomous power expert (APEX) which is a real-time monitoring and diagnosis expert system for the electrical power distribution system of the space station.

  17. Differential Neural Activity during Search of Specific and General Autobiographical Memories Elicited by Musical Cues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ford, Jaclyn Hennessey; Addis, Donna Rose; Giovanello, Kelly S.

    2011-01-01

    Previous neuroimaging studies that have examined autobiographical memory specificity have utilized retrieval cues associated with prior searches of the event, potentially changing the retrieval processes being investigated. In the current study, musical cues were used to naturally elicit memories from multiple levels of specificity (i.e., lifetime…

  18. Expert Meeting Report: Foundations Research Results

    SciTech Connect

    Ojczyk, C.; Huelman, P.; Carmody, J.

    2013-05-01

    In the Expert Meeting Plan, the NorthernSTAR Team proposed to host two Expert Meetings in calendar year 2011. Invitees to the meetings would include experts in the current field of study, other BA team members, and representatives from DOE and NREL. They will invite leading industry experts to present at these meetings. The Expert Meetings will focus on key systems areas that will be required to meet the Building America performance goals and shall be sufficiently narrow in scope that specific conclusions, action items, and delegation of future tasks can be identified and completed. The two expert meeting topics are 'Foundations' and 'Window Retrofit.' The first session is designed as a webinar only and the second will be a live meeting.

  19. Acting green elicits a literal warm glow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taufik, Danny; Bolderdijk, Jan Willem; Steg, Linda

    2015-01-01

    Environmental policies are often based on the assumption that people only act environmentally friendly if some extrinsic reward is implicated, usually money. We argue that people might also be motivated by intrinsic rewards: doing the right thing (such as acting environmentally friendly) elicits psychological rewards in the form of positive feelings, a phenomenon known as warm glow. Given the fact that people's psychological state may affect their thermal state, we expected that this warm glow could express itself quite literally: people who act environmentally friendly may perceive the temperature to be higher. In two studies, we found that people who learned they acted environmentally friendly perceived a higher temperature than people who learned they acted environmentally unfriendly. The underlying psychological mechanism pertains to the self-concept: learning you acted environmentally friendly signals to yourself that you are a good person. Together, our studies show that acting environmentally friendly can be psychologically rewarding, suggesting that appealing to intrinsic rewards can be an alternative way to encourage pro-environmental actions.

  20. Octave illusion elicited by overlapping narrowband noises.

    PubMed

    Jonas Brännström, K; Nilsson, Patrik

    2011-05-01

    The octave or Deutsch illusion occurs when two tones, separated by about one octave, are presented simultaneously but alternating between ears, such that when the low tone is presented to the left ear the high tone is presented to the right ear and vice versa. Most subjects hear a single tone that alternates both between ears and in pitch; i.e., they hear a low pitched tone in one ear alternating with a high pitched tone in the other ear. The present study examined whether the illusion can be elicited by aperiodic signals consisting of low-frequency band-pass filtered noises with overlapping spectra. The amount of spectral overlap was held constant, but the high- and low-frequency content of the signals was systematically varied. The majority of subjects perceived an auditory illusion in terms of a dominant ear for pitch and lateralization by frequency, as proposed by Deutsch [(1975a) Sci. Am. 233, 92-104]. Furthermore, the salience of the illusion increased as the high frequency of the content in the signal increased. Since no harmonics were present in the stimuli, it is highly unlikely that this illusion is perceived on the basis of binaural diplacusis or harmonic binaural fusion.

  1. Medical expert systems developed in j.MD, a Java based expert system shell: application in clinical laboratories.

    PubMed

    Van Hoof, Viviane; Wormek, Arno; Schleutermann, Sylvia; Schumacher, Theo; Lothaire, Olivier; Trendelenburg, Christian

    2004-01-01

    Growing complexity of diagnostic tests, combined with increased workload, stringent laboratory accreditation demands, continuous shortening of turn-around-time and budget restrictions have forced laboratories to automate most of their iterative tasks. Introduction of artificial intelligence by means of expert systems has gained an important place in this automation process. Different parts of clinical laboratory activity can benefit from their implementation and the present project deals with one aspect, namely the clinical interpretation of diagnostic tests. This paper describes how j.MD, a new Java based expert system shell, was used to reprogram the expert system for interpretation of amylase isoenzyme patterns that has been in use for many years in our laboratory, and that was originally programmed in Pro.MD, a Prolog based expert system shell. One of the most important advantages of the j.MD system is its bidirectional link with the laboratory information system. This project shows how expert systems for the interpretation of complex diagnostic tests that demand specific expertise can become an integrated part of the automated clinical chemistry lab.

  2. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J.C.

    1998-02-26

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  3. Waste package degradation expert elicitation panel: Input on the corrosion of CRM alloy C-22. Revision 2

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J.C.

    1998-03-14

    The overall electrolyte concentration in the NFE environment is expected to be somewhere between 1X and saturated J-13 well water. This covers more than three orders-of-magnitude in chloride anion concentration. The pH of this solution is expected to be somewhere between 5 and 10. Exposed patches of the CRM could see this environment.

  4. Rank aggregation of local expert knowledge for conservation planning of the critically endangered saola.

    PubMed

    Wilkinson, Nicholas M; Van Duc, Luong

    2016-10-08

    There has been much recent interest in using local knowledge and expert opinion for conservation planning, particularly for hard-to-detect species. Although it is possible to ask for direct estimation of quantities such as population size, relative abundance is easier to estimate. However, an expert's knowledge is often geographically restricted relative to the area of interest. Combining (or aggregating) experts' assessments of relative abundance is difficult when each expert only knows a part of the area of interest. We used Google's PageRank algorithm to aggregate ranked abundance scores elicited from local experts through a rapid rural-appraisal method. We applied this technique to conservation planning for the saola (Pseudoryx nghetinhensis), a poorly known bovid. Near a priority landscape for the species, composed of 3 contiguous protected areas, we asked groups of local people to indicate relative abundances of saola and other species by placing beans on community maps. For each village, we used this information to rank areas within the knowledge area of that village for saola abundance. We used simulations to compare alternative methods to aggregate the rankings from the different villages. The best-performing method was then used to produce a single map of relative abundance across the entire landscape, an area larger than that known to any one village. This map has informed prioritization of surveys and conservation action in the continued absence of direct information about the saola.

  5. Cripto-1 vaccination elicits protective immunity against metastatic melanoma.

    PubMed

    Ligtenberg, M A; Witt, K; Galvez-Cancino, F; Sette, A; Lundqvist, A; Lladser, A; Kiessling, R

    2016-05-01

    Metastatic melanoma is a fatal disease that responds poorly to classical treatments but can be targeted by T cell-based immunotherapy. Cancer vaccines have the potential to generate long-lasting cytotoxic CD8(+) T cell responses able to eradicate established and disseminated tumors. Vaccination against antigens expressed by tumor cells with enhanced metastatic potential represents a highly attractive strategy to efficiently target deadly metastatic disease. Cripto-1 is frequently over-expressed in human carcinomas and melanomas, but is expressed only at low levels on normal differentiated tissues. Cripto-1 is particularly upregulated in cancer-initiating cells and is involved in cellular processes such as cell migration, invasion and epithelial-mesenchymal transition, which are hallmarks of aggressive cancer cells able to initiate metastatic disease. Here, we explored the potential of Cripto-1 vaccination to target metastatic melanoma in a preclinical model. Cripto-1 was overexpressed in highly metastatic B16F10 cells as compared to poorly metastatic B16F1 cells. Moreover, B16F10 cells grown in sphere conditions to enrich for cancer stem cells (CSC) progressively upregulated cripto1 expression. Vaccination of C57Bl/6 mice with a DNA vaccine encoding mouse Cripto-1 elicited a readily detectable/strong cytotoxic CD8(+) T cell response specific for a H-2 Kb-restricted epitope identified based on its ability to bind H-2(b) molecules. Remarkably, Cripto-1 vaccination elicited a protective response against lung metastasis and subcutaneous challenges with highly metastatic B16F10 melanoma cells. Our data indicate that vaccination against Cripto-1 represents a novel strategy to be tested in the clinic.

  6. Cripto-1 vaccination elicits protective immunity against metastatic melanoma

    PubMed Central

    Ligtenberg, M. A.; Witt, K.; Galvez-Cancino, F.; Sette, A.; Lundqvist, A.; Lladser, A.; Kiessling, R.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Metastatic melanoma is a fatal disease that responds poorly to classical treatments but can be targeted by T cell-based immunotherapy. Cancer vaccines have the potential to generate long-lasting cytotoxic CD8+ T cell responses able to eradicate established and disseminated tumors. Vaccination against antigens expressed by tumor cells with enhanced metastatic potential represents a highly attractive strategy to efficiently target deadly metastatic disease. Cripto-1 is frequently over-expressed in human carcinomas and melanomas, but is expressed only at low levels on normal differentiated tissues. Cripto-1 is particularly upregulated in cancer-initiating cells and is involved in cellular processes such as cell migration, invasion and epithelial–mesenchymal transition, which are hallmarks of aggressive cancer cells able to initiate metastatic disease. Here, we explored the potential of Cripto-1 vaccination to target metastatic melanoma in a preclinical model. Cripto-1 was overexpressed in highly metastatic B16F10 cells as compared to poorly metastatic B16F1 cells. Moreover, B16F10 cells grown in sphere conditions to enrich for cancer stem cells (CSC) progressively upregulated cripto1 expression. Vaccination of C57Bl/6 mice with a DNA vaccine encoding mouse Cripto-1 elicited a readily detectable/strong cytotoxic CD8+ T cell response specific for a H-2 Kb-restricted epitope identified based on its ability to bind H-2b molecules. Remarkably, Cripto-1 vaccination elicited a protective response against lung metastasis and subcutaneous challenges with highly metastatic B16F10 melanoma cells. Our data indicate that vaccination against Cripto-1 represents a novel strategy to be tested in the clinic. PMID:27467944

  7. Application of expert system technology to nondestructive waste assay - initial prototype model

    SciTech Connect

    Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

    1997-11-01

    Expert system technology has been identified as a technique useful for filling certain types of technology/capability gaps in existing waste nondestructive assay (NDA) applications. In particular, expert system techniques are being investigated with the intent of providing on-line evaluation of acquired data and/or directed acquisition of data in a manner that mimics the logic and decision making process a waste NDA expert would employ. The space from which information and data sources utilized in this process is much expanded with respect to the algorithmic approach typically utilized in waste NDA. Expert system technology provides a mechanism to manage and reason with this expanded information/data set. The material presented in this paper concerns initial studies and a resultant prototype expert system that incorporates pertinent information, and evaluation logic and decision processes, for the purpose of validating acquired waste NDA measurement assays. 6 refs., 6 figs.

  8. Experts in Fast-Ball Sports Reduce Anticipation Timing Cost by Developing Inhibitory Control

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nakamoto, Hiroki; Mori, Shiro

    2012-01-01

    The present study was conducted to examine the relationship between expertise in movement correction and rate of movement reprogramming within limited time periods, and to clarify the specific cognitive processes regarding superior reprogramming ability in experts. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded in baseball experts (n = 7) and…

  9. Mechanisms and Neural Basis of Object and Pattern Recognition: A Study with Chess Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bilalic, Merim; Langner, Robert; Erb, Michael; Grodd, Wolfgang

    2010-01-01

    Comparing experts with novices offers unique insights into the functioning of cognition, based on the maximization of individual differences. Here we used this expertise approach to disentangle the mechanisms and neural basis behind two processes that contribute to everyday expertise: object and pattern recognition. We compared chess experts and…

  10. Testing the Stability of Experts' Opinions between Successive Rounds of Delphi Studies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Yu Nu

    The Delphi method is a means of structuring group communication process so that a group of experts can gather information or forecast future problems effectively. A primary objective of a Delphi study is to obtain consensual and consistent opinions from a group of experts in two or more successive rounds on a given research subject. Consensus and…

  11. DEVELOPMENT OF AN INSTRUMENT FOR ELICITING AND EVALUATING VOCATIONAL IMAGERY.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MATHEWSON, ROBERT H.; ORTON, JOHN W.

    THIS STUDY WAS CONDUCTED TO (1) PRODUCE AN INSTRUMENT FOR ELICITING VOCATIONAL IMAGERY FOR USE IN THE EDUCATIONAL-VOCATIONAL ORIENTATION AND COUNSELING OF HIGH SCHOOL YOUTH, AND (2) DEVELOP A SCALE FOR EVALUATING THE MATURITY OF THE VOCATIONAL IMAGERY ELICITED BY THE INSTRUMENT. A PREVIOUSLY DESIGNED INSTRUMENT "WHAT I THINK OF MYSELF"…

  12. Freeze or Flee? Negative Stimuli Elicit Selective Responding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Estes, Zachary; Verges, Michelle

    2008-01-01

    Humans preferentially attend to negative stimuli. A consequence of this automatic vigilance for negative valence is that negative words elicit slower responses than neutral or positive words on a host of cognitive tasks. Some researchers have speculated that negative stimuli elicit a general suppression of motor activity, akin to the freezing…

  13. Eliciting Spontaneous Speech in Bilingual Students: Methods & Techniques.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cornejo, Ricardo J.; And Others

    Intended to provide practical information pertaining to methods and techniques for speech elicitation and production, the monograph offers specific methods and techniques to elicit spontaneous speech in bilingual students. Chapter 1, "Traditional Methodologies for Language Production and Recording," presents an overview of studies using…

  14. Introducing Forum Theatre to Elicit and Advocate Children's Views

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hammond, Nick

    2013-01-01

    Eliciting and advocating the voice of the child remains at the heart of international political agenda and also remains a central role for educational psychologists (EPs). Previous research indicates that EPs tend to use language-based methods for eliciting and advocating views of children. However, these approaches are often limited. Taking a…

  15. Pedagogical use of ELICIT for Leadership Training: Survey and Recommendations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-06-01

    classroom training as part of leadership development programs. ELICIT is particularly helpful in teaching the strengths and weakness of various...organizational structures (edge organization vs. traditional command and control hierarchy.) This paper reviews some of the pedagogical uses of the classroom ...training to date, and provides recommendations for the use of ELICIT in various classroom settings. 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF

  16. Elicited Emotions and Cognitive Functioning in Preschool Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blau, Rivka; Klein, Pnina S.

    2010-01-01

    In this study, the effects of eliciting positive and negative emotions on various cognitive functions of four- to five-year-old preschool children were examined. Emotions were elicited through presentations of "happy" and "sad" video clips, before the children performed the cognitive tasks. Behavioural (facial expressions) and…

  17. Satellite operations support expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    The Satellite Operations Support Expert System is an effort to identify aspects of satellite ground support activity which could profitably be automated with artificial intelligence (AI) and to develop a feasibility demonstration for the automation of one such area. The hydrazine propulsion subsystems (HPS) of the International Sun Earth Explorer (ISEE) and the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUS) were used as applications domains. A demonstration fault handling system was built. The system was written in Franz Lisp and is currently hosted on a VAX 11/750-11/780 family machine. The system allows the user to select which HPS (either from ISEE or IUE) is used. Then the user chooses the fault desired for the run. The demonstration system generates telemetry corresponding to the particular fault. The completely separate fault handling module then uses this telemetry to determine what and where the fault is and how to work around it. Graphics are used to depict the structure of the HPS, and the telemetry values displayed on the screen are continually updated. The capabilities of this system and its development cycle are described.

  18. Photolithography diagnostic expert systems: a systematic approach to problem solving in a wafer fabrication facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weatherwax Scott, Caroline; Tsareff, Christopher R.

    1990-06-01

    One of the main goals of process engineering in the semiconductor industry is to improve wafer fabrication productivity and throughput. Engineers must work continuously toward this goal in addition to performing sustaining and development tasks. To accomplish these objectives, managers must make efficient use of engineering resources. One of the tools being used to improve efficiency is the diagnostic expert system. Expert systems are knowledge based computer programs designed to lead the user through the analysis and solution of a problem. Several photolithography diagnostic expert systems have been implemented at the Hughes Technology Center to provide a systematic approach to process problem solving. This systematic approach was achieved by documenting cause and effect analyses for a wide variety of processing problems. This knowledge was organized in the form of IF-THEN rules, a common structure for knowledge representation in expert system technology. These rules form the knowledge base of the expert system which is stored in the computer. The systems also include the problem solving methodology used by the expert when addressing a problem in his area of expertise. Operators now use the expert systems to solve many process problems without engineering assistance. The systems also facilitate the collection of appropriate data to assist engineering in solving unanticipated problems. Currently, several expert systems have been implemented to cover all aspects of the photolithography process. The systems, which have been in use for over a year, include wafer surface preparation (HMDS), photoresist coat and softbake, align and expose on a wafer stepper, and develop inspection. These systems are part of a plan to implement an expert system diagnostic environment throughout the wafer fabrication facility. In this paper, the systems' construction is described, including knowledge acquisition, rule construction, knowledge refinement, testing, and evaluation. The roles

  19. Counseling, Artificial Intelligence, and Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Illovsky, Michael E.

    1994-01-01

    Considers the use of artificial intelligence and expert systems in counseling. Limitations are explored; candidates for counseling versus those for expert systems are discussed; programming considerations are reviewed; and techniques for dealing with rational, nonrational, and irrational thoughts and feelings are described. (Contains 46…

  20. Computerized Adaptive Mastery Tests as Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frick, Theodore W.

    1992-01-01

    Discussion of expert systems and computerized adaptive tests describes two versions of EXSPRT, a new approach that combines uncertain inference in expert systems with sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) stopping rules. Results of two studies comparing EXSPRT to adaptive mastery testing based on item response theory and SPRT approaches are…

  1. An expert system for restructurable control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan

    1988-01-01

    Work in progress on an expert system which restructures and tunes control systems on-line is presented. The expert system coordinates the different methods for redesigning and implementing the control strategies due to system changes. The research is directed toward aircraft and jet engine applications. The implementation is written in LISP and is currently running on a special purpose LISP machine.

  2. Expert system for analyzing eddy current measurements

    DOEpatents

    Levy, Arthur J.; Oppenlander, Jane E.; Brudnoy, David M.; Englund, James M.; Loomis, Kent C.

    1994-01-01

    A method and apparatus (called DODGER) analyzes eddy current data for heat exchanger tubes or any other metallic object. DODGER uses an expert system to analyze eddy current data by reasoning with uncertainty and pattern recognition. The expert system permits DODGER to analyze eddy current data intelligently, and obviate operator uncertainty by analyzing the data in a uniform and consistent manner.

  3. Expert system for analyzing eddy current measurements

    SciTech Connect

    Levy, A.J.; Oppenlander, J.E.; Brudnoy, D.M.; Englund, J.M.; Loomis, K.C.

    1994-08-16

    A method and apparatus (called DODGER) analyzes eddy current data for heat exchanger tubes or any other metallic object. DODGER uses an expert system to analyze eddy current data by reasoning with uncertainty and pattern recognition. The expert system permits DODGER to analyze eddy current data intelligently, and obviate operator uncertainty by analyzing the data in a uniform and consistent manner. 21 figs.

  4. Expert Systems: Artificial Intelligence for Professional Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schoech, Dick; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Describes expert systems which are computer programs which use inference schemes to apply generalized human expertise to the facts of a specific case. Basic concepts, potentials and implications are presented along with the issues involved in their development and use. A simple expert system, written in BASIC, is included to illustrate the…

  5. Ask-an-Expert Services Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Janes, Joseph; Hill, Chrystie; Rolfe, Alex

    2001-01-01

    Discusses the history and emergence of non-library commercial and non-commercial information services on the World Wide Web, often referred to as expert services. Describes the methodology used for a study of expert services and considers implications for further research and the development of digital reference services by libraries. (Author/LRW)

  6. 12 CFR 1081.210 - Expert discovery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ...; the compensation to be paid for the study and testimony; and a listing of any other cases in which the... expert's study or testimony; (2) Identify facts or data that the other party's attorney provided and that... requirement of expert discovery in appropriate cases....

  7. Toward the Development of Expert Assessment Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hasselbring, Ted S.

    1986-01-01

    The potential application of "expert systems" to the diagnosis and assessment of special-needs children is examined and existing prototype systems are reviewed. The future of this artificial intelligence technology is discussed in relation to emerging development tools designed for the creation of expert systems by the lay public. (Author)

  8. Farm Parents' Attitudes Towards Farm Safety Experts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neufeld, Steven J.; Cinnamon, Jennifer L.

    2004-01-01

    Using both qualitative and quantitative data, this article analyzes farm parent's attitudes towards the trustworthiness, usefulness, and use of advice from farm safety experts. The article evaluates four different perspectives on trust in expert: the Validity of Knowledge perspective, the Salient Values Similarity perspective, the Diffusion of…

  9. Scientific Problem Solving by Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Good, Ron

    1984-01-01

    Human expert problem-solving in science is defined and used to account for scientific discovery. These ideas are used to describe BACON.5, a machine expert problem solver that discovers scientific laws using data-driver heuristics and "expectations" such as symmetry. Implications of BACON.5 type research for traditional science education…

  10. Hemispheric activation differences in novice and expert clinicians during clinical decision making.

    PubMed

    Hruska, Pam; Hecker, Kent G; Coderre, Sylvain; McLaughlin, Kevin; Cortese, Filomeno; Doig, Christopher; Beran, Tanya; Wright, Bruce; Krigolson, Olav

    2016-12-01

    Clinical decision making requires knowledge, experience and analytical/non-analytical types of decision processes. As clinicians progress from novice to expert, research indicates decision-making becomes less reliant on foundational biomedical knowledge and more on previous experience. In this study, we investigated how knowledge and experience were reflected in terms of differences in neural areas of activation. Novice and expert clinicians diagnosed simple or complex (easy, hard) cases while functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data were collected. Our results highlight key differences in the neural areas activated in novices and experts during the clinical decision-making process. fMRI data were collected from ten second year medical students (novices) and ten practicing gastroenterologists (experts) while they diagnosed sixteen (eight easy and eight hard) clinical cases via multiple-choice questions. Behavioral data were collected for diagnostic accuracy (correct/incorrect diagnosis) and time taken to assign a clinical diagnosis. Two analyses were performed with the fMRI data. First, data from easy and hard cases were compared within respective groups (easy > hard, hard > easy). Second, neural differences between novices and experts (novice > expert, expert > novice) were assessed. Experts correctly diagnosed more cases than novices and made their diagnoses faster than novices on both easy and hard cases (all p's < 0.05). Time taken to diagnose hard cases took significantly longer for both novices and experts. While similar neural areas were activated in both novices and experts during the decision making process, we identified significant hemispheric activation differences between novice and expert clinicians when diagnosing hard clinical cases. Specifically, novice clinicians had greater activations in the left anterior temporal cortex and left ventral lateral prefrontal cortex whereas expert clinicians had greater activations in the right

  11. EMMA: The expert system for munition maintenance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mullins, Barry E.

    1988-01-01

    Expert Missile Maintenance Aid (EMMA) is a first attempt to enhance maintenance of the tactical munition at the field and depot level by using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The ultimate goal of EMMA is to help a novice maintenance technician isolate and diagnose electronic, electromechanical, and mechanical equipment faults to the board/chassis level more quickly and consistently than the best human expert using the best currently available automatic test equipment (ATE). To this end, EMMA augments existing ATE with an expert system that captures the knowledge of design and maintenance experts. The EMMA program is described, including the evaluation of field-level expert system prototypes, the description of several study tasks performed during EMMA, and future plans for a follow-on program. This paper will briefly address several study tasks performed during EMMA. The paper concludes with a discussion of future plans for a follow-on program and other areas of concern.

  12. CLIPS: An expert system building tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Riley, Gary

    1991-01-01

    The C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) is an expert system building tool, which provides a complete environment for the development and delivery of rule and/or object based expert systems. CLIPS was specifically designed to provide a low cost option for developing and deploying expert system applications across a wide range of hardware platforms. The commercial potential of CLIPS is vast. Currently, CLIPS is being used by over 3,300 individuals throughout the public and private sector. Because the CLIPS source code is readily available, numerous groups have used CLIPS as a basis for their own expert system tools. To date, three commercially available tools have been derived from CLIPS. In general, the development of CLIPS has helped to improve the ability to deliver expert system technology throughout the public and private sectors for a wide range of applications and diverse computing environments.

  13. Multiple strategies of reasoning for expert systems

    SciTech Connect

    Yao Yuchuan; Kulikowski, C.A.

    1983-01-01

    In expert systems the heuristics used for combining the weight of evidence can be based on probabilistic, fuzzy set, or subjective confidence factors. Although the underlying assumptions for each of the methods differ, it can be shown that there are correspondences between them and that it is possible to develop a model of expert reasoning for medical consultation using any one of the methods. The authors have developed a system for representing expert knowledge, called ESMES, which is an outgrowth of the expert scheme developed earlier at Rutgers. ESMES allows the use of alternative strategies in the solution of a consultation problem. The authors report on the performance of ESMES for a prototype glaucoma consultation model, using reasoning mechanisms similar to those of the expert, MYCIN, Internist I, and Prospector systems. 9 references.

  14. Expert systems in treating substance abuse.

    PubMed

    Wesson, D R; Hink, R H

    1990-05-01

    Computer programs can assist humans in solving complex problems that cannot be solved by traditional computational techniques using mathematic formulas. These programs, or "expert systems," are commonly used in finance, engineering, and computer design. Although not routinely used in medicine at present, medical expert systems have been developed to assist physicians in solving many kinds of medical problems that traditionally require consultation from a physician specialist. No expert systems are available specifically for drug abuse treatment, but at least one is under development. Where access to a physician specialist in substance abuse is not available for consultation, this expert system will extend specialized substance abuse treatment expertise to nonspecialists. Medical expert systems are a developing technologic tool that can assist physicians in practicing better medicine.

  15. [Expert systems in risk assessment. Risk or opportunity?].

    PubMed

    Lohn, H

    1997-06-01

    Experts underwriting systems in the risk selection of individual life insurance have a high place value and are, in future, indispensable in the daily underwriting process. The chance to reduce drastically dual operations enables the insurance companies to make more cost-efficient underwriting decisions. The rapidly advancing technology develops not only new dimensions for individualism and for providing customer service but also for a fast underwriting process which is of great benefit to the insurers who are up against stiff competition. The qualified underwriter and the physician will be relieved of standard work and have more time in investing their knowledge and know-how in the underwriting process which calls for an absolutely individual reflection. New activities are inevitably ahead of this group of persons: Maintenance and attendance of the experts system! A task with which the quality of such a system stands and falls. We are expectant to see what the future has in store for this field.

  16. Adaptive capture of expert behavior

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, R.D.; Barrett, C.L.; Hand, U.; Gordon, R.C.

    1994-08-01

    The authors smoothed and captured a set of expert rules with adaptive networks. The motivation for doing this is discussed. (1) Smoothing leads to stabler control actions. (2) For some sets of rules, the evaluation of the rules can be sped up. This is important in large-scale simulations where many intelligent elements are present. (3) Variability of the intelligent elements can be achieved by adjusting the weights in an adaptive network. (4) After capture has occurred, the weights can be adjusted based on performance criteria. The authors thus have the capability of learning a new set of rules that lead to better performance. The set of rules the authors chose to capture were based on a set of threat determining rules for tank commanders. The approach in this paper: (1) They smoothed the rules. The rule set was converted into a simple set of arithmetic statements. Continuous, non-binary inputs, are now permitted. (2) An operational measure of capturability was developed. (3) They chose four candidate networks for the rule set capture: (a) multi-linear network, (b) adaptive partial least squares, (c) connectionist normalized local spline (CNLS) network, and (d) CNLS net with a PLS preprocessor. These networks were able to capture the rule set to within a few percent. For the simple tank rule set, the multi-linear network performed the best. When the rules were modified to include more nonlinear behavior, CNLS net performed better than the other three nets which made linear assumptions. (4) The networks were tested for robustness to input noise. Noise levels of plus or minus 10% had no real effect on the network performance. Noise levels in the plus or minus 30% range degraded performance by a factor of two. Some performance enhancement occurred when the networks were trained with noisy data. (5) The scaling of the evaluation time was calculated. (6) Human variation can be mimicked in all the networks by perturbing the weights.

  17. Learning in practice for becoming a professional forensic expert.

    PubMed

    Köpsén, Susanne; Nyström, Sofia

    2012-10-10

    The study explores the professional development of future forensic experts. Specifically, it investigates how the forensic expert trainees learn through the internal training program at the Swedish National Laboratory of Forensic Science with a focus on the supervision at work. The findings are drawn from an ethnographical study where five trainees and their supervisors have been observed and interviewed. By drawing on a socio cultural perspective on learning, the results show that supervision is crucial for professional development. Two types of activities and relations define how supervision is implemented. There is a "transitional movement" in how supervision is staged depending on the trainees' gradual changes in participation in the work practice and increased experience. Forensic experts need skills and know-how to make wise and impartial judgments, i.e. a kind of tacit professional practical knowledge, as well as the skill to communicate with other professionals. However, the development of a professional language is somewhat unspoken or planned. Becoming a forensic expert is a learning process in practice where supervision plays a decisive role in maintaining the professional knowledge in the judicial system. Therefore, supervision for supervising might be a valuable support for supervisors.

  18. Multi-expert tracking algorithm based on improved compressive tracker

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Yachun; Zhang, Hong; Yuan, Ding

    2015-12-01

    Object tracking is a challenging task in computer vision. Most state-of-the-art methods maintain an object model and update the object model by using new examples obtained incoming frames in order to deal with the variation in the appearance. It will inevitably introduce the model drift problem into the object model updating frame-by-frame without any censorship mechanism. In this paper, we adopt a multi-expert tracking framework, which is able to correct the effect of bad updates after they happened such as the bad updates caused by the severe occlusion. Hence, the proposed framework exactly has the ability which a robust tracking method should process. The expert ensemble is constructed of a base tracker and its formal snapshot. The tracking result is produced by the current tracker that is selected by means of a simple loss function. We adopt an improved compressive tracker as the base tracker in our work and modify it to fit the multi-expert framework. The proposed multi-expert tracking algorithm significantly improves the robustness of the base tracker, especially in the scenes with frequent occlusions and illumination variations. Experiments on challenging video sequences with comparisons to several state-of-the-art trackers demonstrate the effectiveness of our method and our tracking algorithm can run at real-time.

  19. Formalising expert opinion through multi-attribute value functions: an application in landscape ecology.

    PubMed

    Geneletti, Davide

    2005-08-01

    One of the main objectives of landscape ecology is to orient land-use planning by providing indications of optimal ecosystem patterning to support nature conservation. A frequent limitation to the practical use of the findings of landscape ecological studies is that they tend to focus on the identification and computation of indicators rather than on their interpretation and assessment. This paper presents and discusses the use of a methodology to formalise expert opinion through the elicitation of multi-attribute value functions. In particular, the value functions aim at assessing spatial indicators so as to provide an overall judgment of the viability of different ecosystem patches. The result consisted of the ranking of the ecosystems according to their degree of viability and therefore their suitability for nature conservation. The method of formalising expert opinion and knowledge complements traditional analyses based on the measurement of spatial ecological indicators.

  20. An overview of expert systems. [artificial intelligence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gevarter, W. B.

    1982-01-01

    An expert system is defined and its basic structure is discussed. The knowledge base, the inference engine, and uses of expert systems are discussed. Architecture is considered, including choice of solution direction, reasoning in the presence of uncertainty, searching small and large search spaces, handling large search spaces by transforming them and by developing alternative or additional spaces, and dealing with time. Existing expert systems are reviewed. Tools for building such systems, construction, and knowledge acquisition and learning are discussed. Centers of research and funding sources are listed. The state-of-the-art, current problems, required research, and future trends are summarized.

  1. Prototype expert system for infusion pump maintenance.

    PubMed

    Mataban, B A

    1994-01-01

    With today's object-oriented software, knowledge-base building becomes simple. Using ServiceSoft's Service Power tools, an IMED PC-1 infusion pump prototype expert system was built. Approximately three man-weeks of work was expended to build the prototype expert system providing advice on repair to the board level. The prototype was demonstrated to the Department of Defense, and they are considering the inclusion of expert systems technology in medical equipment maintenance as one facet of their consolidation of logistic and administrative functions of the four military services' health care delivery.

  2. DISPO Advisor: Expert System for Psychiatric Disposition

    PubMed Central

    Barta, Patrick; Barta, Wendy

    1988-01-01

    An expert system was designed to assist psychiatric residents at the Johns Hopkins Hospital. This microcomputer based decision support system helps residents find the proper disposition for patients who come to the emergency room. The system uses an inexpensive, commercially available expert system shell, VP-EXPERT by Paperback Software, to match patients with inpatient and outpatient resources appropriate to their needs. The inference engine uses both forward and backward chaining, and interfaces with data stored in DBase III files. The system is currently in daily use by residents.

  3. Picturing Masculinities: Using Photo-elicitation in Men's Health Research.

    PubMed

    Creighton, Genevieve M; Brussoni, Mariana; Oliffe, John L; Han, Christina

    2015-10-18

    This article explores the use of photo-elicitation methods in two men's health studies. Discussed are the ways that photo-elicitation can facilitate conversation about health issues that might be otherwise challenging to access. In the first study, researchers explored 35 young men's experiences of grief following the accidental death of a male peer. In the second study, researchers describe 64 fathers' perceptions about their roles and identity with respect to child safety and risk. Photographs and accompanying narratives were analyzed and results were theorized using a masculinities framework. Discussed are the benefits of photo-elicitation, which include facilitating conversation about emotions, garnering insight into the structures and identities of masculinity in the context of men's health. Considered also are some methodological challenges amid recommendations for ensuring reflexive practices. Based on the findings it is concluded that photo-elicitation can innovatively advance qualitative research in men's health.

  4. Expert systems guide biological phosphorus removal

    SciTech Connect

    Krichten, D.J.; Wilson, K.D.; Tracy, K.D. )

    1991-10-01

    There is a large body of knowledge regarding optimum control strategies for new secondary wastewater treatment technology using an anaerobic selector to provide biological phosphorus removal. However, because the selector technology is new and the concepts differ somewhat from those used in conventional activated sludge wastewater treatment, a method of communicating this knowledge to plant operators is needed. Traditional methods such as classroom training and operating manuals are of limited effectiveness. The commonplace availability and low cost of the personal computer (PC) makes it practical to use a computer program to communicate the type of information required to control a wastewater treatment plant. Knowledge-based systems technology, commonly referred to as expert systems (ES) technology, is easy to use, provides useful information regarding a consistent control strategy, relieves the anxiety associated with learning a new process,' and provides instruction for inexperienced personnel. ES technology does not require special formatted input and is therefore easily accessible. All information required by the program is readily available through routine laboratory analysis, common plant instrumentation, or direct user observation. The program was designed for all levels of computer users and will run on all IBM-compatible or Apple MacIntosh systems.

  5. SSME fault monitoring and diagnosis expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ali, Moonis; Norman, Arnold M.; Gupta, U. K.

    1989-01-01

    An expert system, called LEADER, has been designed and implemented for automatic learning, detection, identification, verification, and correction of anomalous propulsion system operations in real time. LEADER employs a set of sensors to monitor engine component performance and to detect, identify, and validate abnormalities with respect to varying engine dynamics and behavior. Two diagnostic approaches are adopted in the architecture of LEADER. In the first approach fault diagnosis is performed through learning and identifying engine behavior patterns. LEADER, utilizing this approach, generates few hypotheses about the possible abnormalities. These hypotheses are then validated based on the SSME design and functional knowledge. The second approach directs the processing of engine sensory data and performs reasoning based on the SSME design, functional knowledge, and the deep-level knowledge, i.e., the first principles (physics and mechanics) of SSME subsystems and components. This paper describes LEADER's architecture which integrates a design based reasoning approach with neural network-based fault pattern matching techniques. The fault diagnosis results obtained through the analyses of SSME ground test data are presented and discussed.

  6. Expert system for neurosurgical treatment planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Andrew Y. S.; Chung, Sally S. Y.; Kwok, John C. K.

    1996-04-01

    A specially designed expert system is in development for neurosurgical treatment planning. The knowledge base contains knowledge and experiences on neurosurgical treatment planning from neurosurgeon consultants, who also determine the risks of different regions in human brains. When completed, the system can simulate the decision making process of neurosurgeons to determine the safest probing path for operation. The Computed Tomography (CT) or Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scan images for each patient are grabbed as the input. The system also allows neurosurgeons to include for any particular patient the additional information, such as how the tumor affects its neighboring functional regions, which is also important for calculating the safest probing path. It can then consider all the relevant information and find the most suitable probing path on the patient's brain. A 3D brain model is constructed for each set of the CT/MRI scan images and is displayed real-time together with the possible probing paths found. The precise risk value of each path is shown as a number between 0 and 1, together with its possible damages in text. Neurosurgeons can view more than one possible path simultaneously, and make the final decision on the selected path for operation.

  7. Knowledge acquisition from natural language for expert systems based on classification problem-solving methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gomez, Fernando

    1989-01-01

    It is shown how certain kinds of domain independent expert systems based on classification problem-solving methods can be constructed directly from natural language descriptions by a human expert. The expert knowledge is not translated into production rules. Rather, it is mapped into conceptual structures which are integrated into long-term memory (LTM). The resulting system is one in which problem-solving, retrieval and memory organization are integrated processes. In other words, the same algorithm and knowledge representation structures are shared by these processes. As a result of this, the system can answer questions, solve problems or reorganize LTM.

  8. Using expert opinion surveys to rank threats to endangered species: a case study with sea turtles.

    PubMed

    Donlan, C Josh; Wingfield, Dana K; Crowder, Larry B; Wilcox, Chris

    2010-12-01

    Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet-based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at-sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial-based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more-striking pattern was with hazard-based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias-controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans.

  9. Postauricular reflexes elicited by soft acoustic clicks and loud noise probes: Reliability, prepulse facilitation, and sensitivity to picture contents.

    PubMed

    Aaron, Rachel V; Benning, Stephen D

    2016-12-01

    The startle blink reflex is facilitated during early picture viewing, then inhibited by attention during pleasant and aversive pictures compared to neutral pictures, and finally potentiated during aversive pictures specifically. However, it is unclear whether the postauricular reflex, which is elicited by the same loud acoustic probe as the startle blink reflex but enhanced by appetitive instead of defensive emotion, has the same pattern and time course of emotional modulation. We examined this issue in a sample of 90 undergraduates using serially presented soft acoustic clicks that elicited postauricular (but not startle blink) reflexes in addition to standard startle probes. Postauricular reflexes elicited by both clicks and probes correlated during food and nurturant contents, during which they were potentiated compared to neutral pictures, suggesting clicks effectively elicit emotionally modulated postauricular reflexes. The postauricular reflex was initially facilitated during the first 500 ms of picture processing but was larger during pleasant than neutral pictures throughout picture processing, with larger effect sizes during the latter half of picture processing. Across reflexes and eliciting stimuli, measures of emotional modulation had higher coefficient alphas than magnitudes during specific picture contents within each valence, indicating that only emotional modulation measures assess higher-order appetitive or defensive processing.

  10. Assessing the Effectiveness of Local Management of Coral Reefs Using Expert Opinion and Spatial Bayesian Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Ban, Stephen S.

    2015-01-01

    Multiple stressors are an increasing concern in the management and conservation of ecosystems, and have been identified as a key gap in research. Coral reefs are one example of an ecosystem where management of local stressors may be a way of mitigating or delaying the effects of climate change. Predicting how multiple stressors interact, particularly in a spatially explicit fashion, is a difficult challenge. Here we use a combination of an expert-elicited Bayesian network (BN) and spatial environmental data to examine how hypothetical scenarios of climate change and local management would result in different outcomes for coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Parameterizing our BN using the mean responses from our experts resulted in predictions of limited efficacy of local management in combating the effects of climate change. However, there was considerable variability in expert responses and uncertainty was high. Many reefs within the central GBR appear to be at risk of further decline based on the pessimistic opinions of our expert pool. Further parameterization of the model as more data and knowledge become available could improve predictive power. Our approach serves as a starting point for subsequent work that can fine-tune parameters and explore uncertainties in predictions of responses to management. PMID:26284372

  11. Assessing the Effectiveness of Local Management of Coral Reefs Using Expert Opinion and Spatial Bayesian Modeling.

    PubMed

    Ban, Stephen S; Pressey, Robert L; Graham, Nicholas A J

    2015-01-01

    Multiple stressors are an increasing concern in the management and conservation of ecosystems, and have been identified as a key gap in research. Coral reefs are one example of an ecosystem where management of local stressors may be a way of mitigating or delaying the effects of climate change. Predicting how multiple stressors interact, particularly in a spatially explicit fashion, is a difficult challenge. Here we use a combination of an expert-elicited Bayesian network (BN) and spatial environmental data to examine how hypothetical scenarios of climate change and local management would result in different outcomes for coral reefs on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Parameterizing our BN using the mean responses from our experts resulted in predictions of limited efficacy of local management in combating the effects of climate change. However, there was considerable variability in expert responses and uncertainty was high. Many reefs within the central GBR appear to be at risk of further decline based on the pessimistic opinions of our expert pool. Further parameterization of the model as more data and knowledge become available could improve predictive power. Our approach serves as a starting point for subsequent work that can fine-tune parameters and explore uncertainties in predictions of responses to management.

  12. School Construction Management: Expert Administrators Speak.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fickes, Michael

    2001-01-01

    Presents expert opinion on school construction management communication concerning educational needs, obtaining consensus among diverse groups, and envisioning what schools must offer in the future. Why furniture issues are also important is highlighted. (GR)

  13. How to Become an Instant Computer Expert.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roth, Audrey J.

    1986-01-01

    Offers five easy ways to help teachers become a computer expert: (1) meet a computer; (2) meet people experienced in using computers; (3) learn the lingo; (4) read about computers; and (5) find out what computers can do. (EL)

  14. National Research Council Experts – October 2014

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Today, EPA announced that the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program’s Bimonthly Public Science meetings will be supplemented with independent scientific experts identified by the National Academies’ National Research Council (NRC).

  15. Validation and verification of expert systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gilstrap, Lewey

    1991-01-01

    Validation and verification (V&V) are procedures used to evaluate system structure or behavior with respect to a set of requirements. Although expert systems are often developed as a series of prototypes without requirements, it is not possible to perform V&V on any system for which requirements have not been prepared. In addition, there are special problems associated with the evaluation of expert systems that do not arise in the evaluation of conventional systems, such as verification of the completeness and accuracy of the knowledge base. The criticality of most NASA missions make it important to be able to certify the performance of the expert systems used to support these mission. Recommendations for the most appropriate method for integrating V&V into the Expert System Development Methodology (ESDM) and suggestions for the most suitable approaches for each stage of ESDM development are presented.

  16. Expert System Control of Plant Growth in an Enclosed Space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    May, George; Lanoue, Mark; Bathel, Matthew; Ryan, Robert E.

    2008-01-01

    The Expert System is an enclosed, controlled environment for growing plants, which incorporates a computerized, knowledge-based software program that is designed to capture the knowledge, experience, and problem-solving skills of one or more human experts in a particular discipline. The Expert System is trained to analyze crop/plant status, to monitor the condition of the plants and the environment, and to adjust operational parameters to optimize the plant-growth process. This system is intended to provide a way to remotely control plant growth with little or no human intervention. More specifically, the term control implies an autonomous method for detecting plant states such as health (biomass) or stress and then for recommending and implementing cultivation and/or remediation to optimize plant growth and to minimize consumption of energy and nutrients. Because of difficulties associated with delivering energy and nutrients remotely, a key feature of this Expert System is its ability to minimize this effort and to achieve optimum growth while taking into account the diverse range of environmental considerations that exist in an enclosed environment. The plant-growth environment for the Expert System could be made from a variety of structures, including a greenhouse, an underground cavern, or another enclosed chamber. Imaging equipment positioned within or around the chamber provides spatially distributed crop/plant-growth information. Sensors mounted in the chamber provide data and information pertaining to environmental conditions that could affect plant development. Lamps in the growth environment structure supply illumination, and other additional equipment in the chamber supplies essential nutrients and chemicals.

  17. Expert system to design communications circuits

    SciTech Connect

    Tolendino, L.F.; Vahle, M.O.

    1986-07-01

    An expert system has been created to aid the design of fiber optic based communications circuits. The design system is based on an Apollo workstation, LISP and CPSL, an in-house developed expert system language. The optical circuit is taken from design specification through hardware selection and circuit routing to the production of detailed schematics and routing guides. A database containing the entire fiber optic trunk system is also maintained.

  18. Jess, the Java expert system shell

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman-Hill, E.J.

    1997-11-01

    This report describes Jess, a clone of the popular CLIPS expert system shell written entirely in Java. Jess supports the development of rule-based expert systems which can be tightly coupled to code written in the powerful, portable Java language. The syntax of the Jess language is discussed, and a comprehensive list of supported functions is presented. A guide to extending Jess by writing Java code is also included.

  19. Expert System for Automated Design Synthesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rogers, James L., Jr.; Barthelemy, Jean-Francois M.

    1987-01-01

    Expert-system computer program EXADS developed to aid users of Automated Design Synthesis (ADS) general-purpose optimization program. EXADS aids engineer in determining best combination based on knowledge of specific problem and expert knowledge stored in knowledge base. Available in two interactive machine versions. IBM PC version (LAR-13687) written in IQ-LISP. DEC VAX version (LAR-13688) written in Franz-LISP.

  20. A Combat Battle Damage Assessor Expert System,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-05-01

    Next, the requirements should receive just enough repair to allow for the battle damage assessor software it to be flown to a rear area for complete are...R’ D-Ai48 898 A COMBAT BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSOR EXPERT SYSTEM(U) AIR 1/i FORCE WRIGHT AERONAUTICAL LABS WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB ON D E NELSON MAY 84 SBI...8217.c.sw-x -: "--..... . .. .-. :;.-...... .............. .. . .. . . .. . .. . . r74 IV A COMBAT BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSOR EXPERT SYSTEM DAL E. NELSON

  1. Debugging expert systems using a dynamically created hypertext network

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyle, Craig D. B.; Schuette, John F.

    1991-01-01

    The labor intensive nature of expert system writing and debugging motivated this study. The hypothesis is that a hypertext based debugging tool is easier and faster than one traditional tool, the graphical execution trace. HESDE (Hypertext Expert System Debugging Environment) uses Hypertext nodes and links to represent the objects and their relationships created during the execution of a rule based expert system. HESDE operates transparently on top of the CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) rule based system environment and is used during the knowledge base debugging process. During the execution process HESDE builds an execution trace. Use of facts, rules, and their values are automatically stored in a Hypertext network for each execution cycle. After the execution process, the knowledge engineer may access the Hypertext network and browse the network created. The network may be viewed in terms of rules, facts, and values. An experiment was conducted to compare HESDE with a graphical debugging environment. Subjects were given representative tasks. For speed and accuracy, in eight of the eleven tasks given to subjects, HESDE was significantly better.

  2. Expert vs. novice: Problem decomposition/recomposition in engineering design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Ting

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the differences of using problem decomposition and problem recomposition among dyads of engineering experts, dyads of engineering seniors, and dyads of engineering freshmen. Fifty participants took part in this study. Ten were engineering design experts, 20 were engineering seniors, and 20 were engineering freshmen. Participants worked in dyads to complete an engineering design challenge within an hour. The entire design process was video and audio recorded. After the design session, members participated in a group interview. This study used protocol analysis as the methodology. Video and audio data were transcribed, segmented, and coded. Two coding systems including the FBS ontology and "levels of the problem" were used in this study. A series of statistical techniques were used to analyze data. Interview data and participants' design sketches also worked as supplemental data to help answer the research questions. By analyzing the quantitative and qualitative data, it was found that students used less problem decomposition and problem recomposition than engineer experts in engineering design. This result implies that engineering education should place more importance on teaching problem decomposition and problem recomposition. Students were found to spend less cognitive effort when considering the problem as a whole and interactions between subsystems than engineer experts. In addition, students were also found to spend more cognitive effort when considering details of subsystems. These results showed that students tended to use dept-first decomposition and experts tended to use breadth-first decomposition in engineering design. The use of Function (F), Behavior (B), and Structure (S) among engineering experts, engineering seniors, and engineering freshmen was compared on three levels. Level 1 represents designers consider the problem as an integral whole, Level 2 represents designers consider interactions between

  3. Internet based expert system for the management of gallstones, renal, ureteric and bladder calculi.

    PubMed

    Sridhar, S; Kumaravel, N

    2003-01-01

    An Internet based expert system for the management of gallstones, Renal, Ureteric and bladder calculi based on ultrasound images is presented in this paper. Calculi are due to abnormal collection of certain chemicals like oxalate, phosphate and Uric acid. These calculi can be present in kidney, Ureter or in Urinary bladder and also in gall bladder. The expert system is designed to assist the physician to detect, extract, classify and diagnose calculi with greater accuracy. It also helps physicians in the management of calculi based on the etiological analysis of calculi. The Expert system takes an ultrasound image as input along with the symptoms of the patients. The expert system extracts the renal calculi and analyzes it using different image processing techniques to extract the image features like size, location and texture. These image features along with the clinical data of the patient enable the expert system to provide the decisions to decide the future course of treatment with more accuracy.

  4. Expert consensus-building for developing guidelines: lessons learned from a dengue economics workshop.

    PubMed

    Constenla, Dagna; Lefcourt, Noah; Garcia, Cristina

    2013-09-01

    A workshop with 20 experts of diverse backgrounds from five countries in the Americas was convened for two-and-a-half days in March 2012 to discuss and develop a standardized methodology for assessing the economic cost of dengue. This article discusses a number of factors that contributed to the workshop's success, including: engaging the experts at various stages of the process; convening a multidisciplinary group to reduce expert bias and provide a more comprehensive and integrated approach; facilitating guided small- and large-group discussions; developing effective cross-cultural collectivism, trust, communication, and empathy across the expert panel; establishing clear lines of responsibilities within each group of experts; breaking down the complex issues into smaller and simpler ideas; providing ample background materials in multiple languages prior to the workshop. Challenges and areas for improvement are also covered.

  5. Battery test expert systems. [spacecraft propulsion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Yvette B.

    1990-01-01

    The characteristics of NIHBES (nickel-hydrogen battery expert system) are described, with attention also given to NICBES-2 (nickel-cadmium battery expert system-2). The nickel-hydrogen battery testbed is set up almost identically to the nickel-cadmium battery testbed, with the exceptions of no battery protection and reconditioning circuits (BPRCs) and the frequency of transmission of data. The Ni-H2 testbed has no BPRCs and the data are transmitted every 30 s instead of every minute. An expert system shell was chosen to develop this particular expert system. The GoldWorks expert system shell from Gold Hill Computers was chosen for the task. NIHBES will extract the desired data and return fault diagnosis, status and advice, and decision support. Expert systems have been proven to be viable tools in the control and monitoring of space power systems. Presently, the DDAS (digital data acquisition system) monitors and controls the orbit time, and is responsible for limit checking, data acquisition, and data summaries. It is concluded that in the future control of the Hubble Space Telescope breadboard will be passed to NIHBES. NIHBES will be more beneficial to the testbed than the DDAS alone due to the limitations of the DDAS. The DDAS cannot provide long-term trend analysis, plotting capability, fault diagnosis, or advice.

  6. Quiet eye gaze behavior of expert, and near-expert, baseball plate umpires.

    PubMed

    Millslagle, Duane G; Hines, Bridget B; Smith, Melissa S

    2013-02-01

    The quiet eye gaze behavior of 4 near-expert and 4 expert baseball umpires who called balls and strikes in simulated pitch-hit situations was assessed with a mobile eye cornea tracker system. Statistical analyses of the umpires' gaze behavior (fixation/pursuit tracking, saccades, and blinks)--onset, duration, offset, and frequency--were performed between and within 4 stages (pitcher's preparation, pitcher's delivery, ball in flight, and umpire call) by umpire's skill level. The results indicated that the quiet eye of expert umpires at onset of the pitcher's release point occurred earlier and was longer in duration than near-expert umpires. Expert expert umpires. The area outside the pitcher's ball release point may be the key environment cue for the behind-the-plate umpire.

  7. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lawlor, Joseph

    Artificial intelligence (AI) is the field of scientific inquiry concerned with designing machine systems that can simulate human mental processes. The field draws upon theoretical constructs from a wide variety of disciplines, including mathematics, psychology, linguistics, neurophysiology, computer science, and electronic engineering. Some of the…

  8. Family Stories: Eliciting Tolerance and Understanding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dukes, Melanie Anne Dillett

    2009-01-01

    The past and present provide an important reference to understanding the circumstances and cultural differences that assist in the development of our methods of interaction. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to provide a process of personal self-reflection of experiences by which administrators, school officials, staff, and faculty can…

  9. Regressive Imagery in Creative Problem-Solving: Comparing Verbal Protocols of Expert and Novice Visual Artists and Computer Programmers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kozbelt, Aaron; Dexter, Scott; Dolese, Melissa; Meredith, Daniel; Ostrofsky, Justin

    2015-01-01

    We applied computer-based text analyses of regressive imagery to verbal protocols of individuals engaged in creative problem-solving in two domains: visual art (23 experts, 23 novices) and computer programming (14 experts, 14 novices). Percentages of words involving primary process and secondary process thought, plus emotion-related words, were…

  10. EMMA (Expert Missile Maintenance Aid): The Expert System for Munition Maintenance

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-07-01

    CONCLUDED) Electonic Systems Division 8b. OFFICE SYMBOL (CONCLUDED) ESD/XRS 8c. ADDRESS (CONCLUDED) Hanscom AFB, MA 01731-5003 19. ABSTRACT (CONCLUDED...325th Equipment Maintenance Squadron formed by the knowledge engineer . Since (EMS) at Tyndall AFB, Florida for an eval- expert system development is...development. The knowl- edge engineer and the expert verify the The argument could be made that EMMA expert system and identify potential cor- should accurately

  11. Multidisciplinary Expert-aided Analysis and Design (MEAD)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hummel, Thomas C.; Taylor, James

    1989-01-01

    The MEAD Computer Program (MCP) is being developed under the Multidisciplinary Expert-Aided Analysis and Design (MEAD) Project as a CAD environment in which integrated flight, propulsion, and structural control systems can be designed and analyzed. The MCP has several embedded computer-aided control engineering (CACE) packages, a user interface (UI), a supervisor, a data-base manager (DBM), and an expert system (ES). The supervisor monitors and coordinates the operation of the CACE packages, the DBM; the ES, and the UI. The DBM tracks the control design process. Models created or installed by the MCP are tracked by date and version, and results are associated with the specific model version with which they were generated. The ES is used to relieve the control engineer from tedious and cumbersome tasks in the iterative design process. The UI provides the capability for a novice as well as an expert to utilize the MCP easily and effectively. The MCP version 2(MCP-2.0) is fully developed for flight control system design and analysis. Propulsion system modeling, analysis, and simulation is also supported; the same is true for structural models represented in state-space form. The ultimate goal is to cover the integration of flight, propulsion, and structural control engineering, including all discipline-specific functionality and interfaces. The current MCP-2.0 components and functionality are discussed.

  12. Expert views on clinical supervision: a study based on interviews.

    PubMed

    Severinsson, E I; Borgenhammar, E V

    1997-05-01

    Clinical supervision is a didactic process of the purpose of human development and maturity. The aim of this study is to analyse views on clinical supervision held by a number of experts, and to reflect on the effects and value of clinical supervision in relation to public health. Data were collected by interviews and analysed in accordance with the grounded theory construction model. The results showed that clinical supervision is an integration process guiding a person from 'novice to expert' by establishing a relationship of trust between supervisor and supervisee. This study indicates that implementation of systematic clinical supervision may positively affect quality of care, and patients' recovery, create improved feeling of confidence in one's work, and prevent burnout among staff. The negative aspects, as reported, were the possibility of high 'opportunity costs', e.g. the time loss for patient care by those participating in organized systematic supervision. On the other hand, clinical supervision contributes towards more efficient use of resources and hence avoids unnecessary costs. However, neither of these aspects were further elaborated on by the experts but clearly indicate an important field for further research.

  13. Expert system for on-board satellite scheduling and control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barry, John M.; Sary, Charisse

    1988-01-01

    An Expert System is described which Rockwell Satellite and Space Electronics Division (S&SED) is developing to dynamically schedule the allocation of on-board satellite resources and activities. This expert system is the Satellite Controller. The resources to be scheduled include power, propellant and recording tape. The activities controlled include scheduling satellite functions such as sensor checkout and operation. The scheduling of these resources and activities is presently a labor intensive and time consuming ground operations task. Developing a schedule requires extensive knowledge of the system and subsystems operations, operational constraints, and satellite design and configuration. This scheduling process requires highly trained experts anywhere from several hours to several weeks to accomplish. The process is done through brute force, that is examining cryptic mnemonic data off line to interpret the health and status of the satellite. Then schedules are formulated either as the result of practical operator experience or heuristics - that is rules of thumb. Orbital operations must become more productive in the future to reduce life cycle costs and decrease dependence on ground control. This reduction is required to increase autonomy and survivability of future systems. The design of future satellites require that the scheduling function be transferred from ground to on board systems.

  14. PVEX: An expert system for producibility/value engineering

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lam, Chun S.; Moseley, Warren

    1991-01-01

    PVEX is described as an expert system that solves the problem of selection of the material and process in missile manufacturing. The producibility and the value problem has been deeply studied in the past years, and was written in dBase III and PROLOG before. A new approach is presented in that the solution is achieved by introducing hypothetical reasoning, heuristic criteria integrated with a simple hypertext system and shell programming. PVEX combines KMS with Unix scripts which graphically depicts decision trees. The decision trees convey high level qualitative problem solving knowledge to users, and a stand-alone help facility and technical documentation is available through KMS. The system developed is considerably less development costly than any other comparable expert system.

  15. Expert systems and their use in nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Uhrig, R.E. |

    1990-12-31

    In the operation of a nuclear power plant, great quantities of numeric, symbolic, and quantitative information are handled by the reactor operators even during routine operation. The sheer magnitude of the number of process parameters and systems interactions poses difficulties for the operators, particularly during abnormal or emergency situations. Recovery from an upset situation depends upon the facility with which available raw data can be converted into, and assimilated as, meaningful knowledge. In operating a nuclear power plant, people are sometimes affected by fatigue, stress, emotion, and environmental factors that may have varying degrees of influence on their performance. Expert systems provide a method of removing some of the uncertainty from operator decisions by providing expert advice and rapid access to a large information base. 74 refs., 2 tabs.

  16. Sensor-based fault diagnosis in a flight expert system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ali, M.; Scharnhorst, D. A.

    1985-01-01

    A prototype of a knowledge-based flight expert system (FLES) has been developed to assist airplane pilots in monitoring, analyzing, and diagnosing faults and to provide support in reducing the pilot's own mistakes. A sensor simulation model has been developed to provide FLES with the airplane status information during the diagnostic process. The simulator is based partly on the Advanced Concept System (ACS), a future-generation airplane, and partly on the Boeing 737, an existing airplane. The architecture of FLES contains several subsystems. One of the major subsystems performs fault diagnosis in the electrical system of the ACS. This paper describes the mechanism and functionality of the automatic diagnosis performed in this expert system.

  17. Java Expert System Shell Version 6.0

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman-Hill, Ernest

    2002-06-18

    Java Expert Shell System - Jess - is a rule engine and scripting environment written entirely in Sun's Java language, Jess was orginially inspired by the CLIPS expert system shell, but has grown int a complete, distinct JAVA-influenced environment of its own. Using Jess, you can build Java applets and applications that have the capacity to "reason" using knowledge you supply in the form of declarative rules. Jess is surprisingly fast, and for some problems is faster than CLIPS, in that many Jess scripts are valid CLIPS scripts and vice-versa. Like CLIPS, Jess uses the Rete algorithm to process rules, a very efficient mechanism for solving the difficult many-to-many matching problem. Jess adds many features to CLIPS, including backwards chaining and the ability to manipulate and directly reason about Java objects. Jess is also a powerful Java scripting environment, from which you can create Java objects and call Java methods without compiling any Java Code.

  18. Bothered by abstractness or engaged by cohesion? Experts' explanations enhance novices' deep-learning.

    PubMed

    Lachner, Andreas; Nückles, Matthias

    2015-03-01

    Experts' explanations have been shown to better enhance novices' transfer as compared with advanced students' explanations. Based on research on expertise and text comprehension, we investigated whether the abstractness or the cohesion of experts' and intermediates' explanations accounted for novices' learning. In Study 1, we showed that the superior cohesion of experts' explanations accounted for most of novices' transfer, whereas the degree of abstractness did not impact novices' transfer performance. In Study 2, we investigated novices' processing while learning with experts' and intermediates' explanations. We found that novices studying experts' explanations actively self-regulated their processing of the explanations, as they showed mainly deep-processing activities, whereas novices learning with intermediates' explanations were mainly engaged in shallow-processing activities by paraphrasing the explanations. Thus, we concluded that subject-matter expertise is a crucial prerequisite for instructors. Despite the abstract character of experts' explanations, their subject-matter expertise enables them to generate highly cohesive explanations that serve as a valuable scaffold for students' construction of flexible knowledge by engaging them in deep-level processing.

  19. Mechanisms and neural basis of object and pattern recognition: a study with chess experts.

    PubMed

    Bilalić, Merim; Langner, Robert; Erb, Michael; Grodd, Wolfgang

    2010-11-01

    Comparing experts with novices offers unique insights into the functioning of cognition, based on the maximization of individual differences. Here we used this expertise approach to disentangle the mechanisms and neural basis behind two processes that contribute to everyday expertise: object and pattern recognition. We compared chess experts and novices performing chess-related and -unrelated (visual) search tasks. As expected, the superiority of experts was limited to the chess-specific task, as there were no differences in a control task that used the same chess stimuli but did not require chess-specific recognition. The analysis of eye movements showed that experts immediately and exclusively focused on the relevant aspects in the chess task, whereas novices also examined irrelevant aspects. With random chess positions, when pattern knowledge could not be used to guide perception, experts nevertheless maintained an advantage. Experts' superior domain-specific parafoveal vision, a consequence of their knowledge about individual domain-specific symbols, enabled improved object recognition. Functional magnetic resonance imaging corroborated this differentiation between object and pattern recognition and showed that chess-specific object recognition was accompanied by bilateral activation of the occipitotemporal junction, whereas chess-specific pattern recognition was related to bilateral activations in the middle part of the collateral sulci. Using the expertise approach together with carefully chosen controls and multiple dependent measures, we identified object and pattern recognition as two essential cognitive processes in expert visual cognition, which may also help to explain the mechanisms of everyday perception.

  20. Optical Design Using an Expert System

    SciTech Connect

    Lerner, S A

    2003-08-01

    We present, as a different perspective on optimization, an expert system for optimization of optical systems that can be used in conjunction with damped least squared methods to find minima for specific design forms. Expert system optimization differs from global optimization in that it preserves the basic structure of the optical system and limits its search for a minima to a relatively small portion of the design space. In general, the high density of local minima obscures the general trend of the merit function in the region of interest for systems with a large number of variables and constraints. Surprisingly, there may be a potential decrease of an order a magnitude in the merit function for a region of solution space. While global optimization is well-suited to identifying design forms of interest, expert system optimization can be used for in-depth optimization of such forms. An expert system based upon such techniques was used to obtain the winning entry for the 2002 IODC lens design problem. The expert system used is discussed along with other design examples.