Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region

DOE PAGES

Barkhordarian, Armineh

2012-01-01

We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scalemore » component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.« less

Recent global methane trends: an investigation using hierarchical Bayesian methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigby, M. L.; Stavert, A.; Ganesan, A.; Lunt, M. F.

2014-12-01

Following a decade with little growth, methane concentrations began to increase across the globe in 2007, and have continued to rise ever since. The reasons for this renewed growth are currently the subject of much debate. Here, we discuss the recent observed trends, and highlight some of the strengths and weaknesses in current "inverse" methods for quantifying fluxes using observations. In particular, we focus on the outstanding problems of accurately quantifying uncertainties in inverse frameworks. We examine to what extent the recent methane changes can be explained by the current generation of flux models and inventories. We examine the major modes of variability in wetland models along with the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR). Using the Model for Ozone and Related Tracers (MOZART), we determine whether the spatial and temporal atmospheric trends predicted using these emissions can be brought into consistency with in situ atmospheric observations. We use a novel hierarchical Bayesian methodology in which scaling factors applied to the principal components of the flux fields are estimated simultaneously with the uncertainties associated with the a priori fluxes and with model representations of the observations. Using this method, we examine the predictive power of methane flux models for explaining recent fluctuations.

Nitrogen oxides and ozone in Portugal: trends and ozone estimation in an urban and a rural site.

PubMed

Fernández-Guisuraga, José Manuel; Castro, Amaya; Alves, Célia; Calvo, Ana; Alonso-Blanco, Elisabeth; Blanco-Alegre, Carlos; Rocha, Alfredo; Fraile, Roberto

2016-09-01

This study provides an analysis of the spatial distribution and trends of NO, NO2 and O3 concentrations in Portugal between 1995 and 2010. Furthermore, an estimation model for daily ozone concentrations was developed for an urban and a rural site. NO concentration showed a significant decreasing trend in most urban stations. A decreasing trend in NO2 is only observed in the stations with less influence from emissions of primary NO2. Several stations showed a significant upward trend in O3 as a result of the decrease in the NO/NO2 ratio. In the northern rural region, ozone showed a strong correlation with wind direction, highlighting the importance of long-range transport. In the urban site, most of the variance is explained by the NO2/NOX ratio. The results obtained by the ozone estimation model in the urban site fit 2013 observed data. In the rural site, the estimated ozone during extreme events agrees with observed concentration.

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Schut, Antonius G. T.; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.; ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982–2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17–36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1–2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity. PMID:26466347

Learning From Leaders: Life-span Trends in Olympians and Supercentenarians.

PubMed

Antero-Jacquemin, Juliana da Silva; Berthelot, Geoffroy; Marck, Adrien; Noirez, Philippe; Latouche, Aurélien; Toussaint, Jean-François

2015-08-01

Life-span trends progression has worldwide practical implications as it may affect the sustainability of modern societies. We aimed to describe the secular life-span trends of populations with a propensity to live longer-Olympians and supercentenarians-under two hypotheses: an ongoing life-span extension versus a biologic "probabilistic barrier" limiting further progression. In a study of life-span densities (total number of life durations per birth date), we analyzed 19,012 Olympians and 1,205 supercentenarians deceased between 1900 and 2013. Among most Olympians, we observed a trend toward increased life duration. This trend, however, decelerates at advanced ages leveling off with the upper values with a perennial gap between Olympians and supercentenarians during the whole observation period. Similar tendencies are observed among supercentenarians, and over the last years, a plateau attests to a stable longevity pattern among the longest-lived humans. The common trends between Olympians and supercentenarians indicate similar mortality pressures over both populations that increase with age, scenario better explained by a biologic "barrier" forecast. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America.

Contaminant trends in lake trout and walleye from the Laurentian Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeVault, David S.; Hesselberg, Robert J.; Rodgers, Paul W.; Feist, Timothy J.

1996-01-01

Trends in PCBs, DDT, and other contaminants have been monitored in Great Lakes lake trout and walleye since the 1970s using composite samples of whole fish. Dramatic declines have been observed in concentrations of PCB, ΣDDT, dieldrin, and oxychlordane, with declines initially following first order loss kinetics. Mean PCB concentrations in Lake Michigan lake trout increased from 13 μg/g in 1972 to 23 μg/g in 1974, then declined to 2.6 μg/g by 1986. Between 1986 and 1992 there was little change in concentration, with 3.5 μg/g observed in 1992. ΣDDT in Lake Michigan trout followed a similar trend, decreasing from 19.2 μg/g in 1970 to 1.1 μg/g in 1986, and 1.2 μg/g in 1992. Similar trends were observed for PCBs and ΣDDT in lake trout from Lakes Superior, Huron and Ontario. Concentrations of both PCB and ΣDDT in Lake Erie walleye declined between 1977 and 1982, after which concentrations were relatively constant through 1990. When originally implemented it was assumed that trends in the mean contaminant concentrations in open-lake fish would serve as cost effective surrogates to trends in the water column. While water column data are still extremely limited it appears that for PCBs in lakes Michigan and Superior, trends in lake trout do reasonably mimic those in the water column over the long term. Hypotheses to explain the trends in contaminant concentrations are briefly reviewed. The original first order loss kinetics used to describe the initial decline do not explain the more recent leveling off of contaminant concentrations. Recent theories have examined the possibilities of multiple contaminant pools. We suggest another hypothesis, that changes in the food web may have resulted in increased bioaccumulation. However, a preliminary exploration of this hypothesis using a change point analysis was inconclusive.

Reconciling Warming Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Shindell, Drew T.; Tsigaridis, Konstantinos

2014-01-01

Climate models projected stronger warming over the past 15 years than has been seen in observations. Conspiring factors of errors in volcanic and solar inputs, representations of aerosols, and El NiNo evolution, may explain most of the discrepancy.

Decadal Record of Satellite Carbon Monoxide Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worden, Helen; Deeter, Merritt; Frankenberg, Christian; George, Maya; Nichitiu, Florian; Worden, John; Aben, Ilse; Bowman, Kevin; Clerbaux, Cathy; Coheur, Pierre-Francois; de Laat, Jos; Warner, Juying; Drummond, James; Edwards, David; Gille, John; Hurtmans, Daniel; Ming, Luo; Martinez-Alonso, Sara; Massie, Steven; Pfister, Gabriele

2013-04-01

Atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) distributions are controlled by anthropogenic emissions, biomass burning, chemical production, transport and oxidation by reaction with the hydroxyl radical (OH). Quantifying trends in CO is therefore important for understanding changes related to all of these contributions. Here we present a comprehensive record of satellite observations from 2000 through 2011 of total column CO using the available measurements from nadir-viewing thermal infrared instruments: MOPITT, AIRS, TES and IASI. We examine trends for CO in the Northern and Southern hemispheres along with regional trends for E. China, E. USA, Europe and India. Measurement and sampling methods for each of the instruments are discussed, and we show diagnostics for systematic errors in MOPITT trends. We find that all the satellite observations are consistent with a modest decreasing trend around -1%/year in total column CO over the Northern hemisphere for this time period. Decreasing trends in total CO column are observed for the United States, Europe and E. China with more than 2σ significance. For India, the trend is also decreasing, but smaller in magnitude and less significant. Decreasing trends in surface CO have also been observed from measurements in the U.S. and Europe. Although less information is available for surface CO in China, there is a decreasing trend reported for Beijing. Some of the interannual variability in the observations can be explained by global fire emissions, and there may be some evidence of the global financial crisis in late 2008 to early 2009. But the overall decrease needs further study to understand the implications for changes in anthropogenic emissions.

Frequency-dependent selection predicts patterns of radiations and biodiversity.

PubMed

Melián, Carlos J; Alonso, David; Vázquez, Diego P; Regetz, James; Allesina, Stefano

2010-08-26

Most empirical studies support a decline in speciation rates through time, although evidence for constant speciation rates also exists. Declining rates have been explained by invoking pre-existing niches, whereas constant rates have been attributed to non-adaptive processes such as sexual selection and mutation. Trends in speciation rate and the processes underlying it remain unclear, representing a critical information gap in understanding patterns of global diversity. Here we show that the temporal trend in the speciation rate can also be explained by frequency-dependent selection. We construct a frequency-dependent and DNA sequence-based model of speciation. We compare our model to empirical diversity patterns observed for cichlid fish and Darwin's finches, two classic systems for which speciation rates and richness data exist. Negative frequency-dependent selection predicts well both the declining speciation rate found in cichlid fish and explains their species richness. For groups like the Darwin's finches, in which speciation rates are constant and diversity is lower, speciation rate is better explained by a model without frequency-dependent selection. Our analysis shows that differences in diversity may be driven by incipient species abundance with frequency-dependent selection. Our results demonstrate that genetic-distance-based speciation and frequency-dependent selection are sufficient to explain the high diversity observed in natural systems and, importantly, predict decay through time in speciation rate in the absence of pre-existing niches.

Bayesian change point analysis of abundance trends for pelagic fishes in the upper San Francisco Estuary.

PubMed

Thomson, James R; Kimmerer, Wim J; Brown, Larry R; Newman, Ken B; Mac Nally, Ralph; Bennett, William A; Feyrer, Frederick; Fleishman, Erica

2010-07-01

We examined trends in abundance of four pelagic fish species (delta smelt, longfin smelt, striped bass, and threadfin shad) in the upper San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, over 40 years using Bayesian change point models. Change point models identify times of abrupt or unusual changes in absolute abundance (step changes) or in rates of change in abundance (trend changes). We coupled Bayesian model selection with linear regression splines to identify biotic or abiotic covariates with the strongest associations with abundances of each species. We then refitted change point models conditional on the selected covariates to explore whether those covariates could explain statistical trends or change points in species abundances. We also fitted a multispecies change point model that identified change points common to all species. All models included hierarchical structures to model data uncertainties, including observation errors and missing covariate values. There were step declines in abundances of all four species in the early 2000s, with a likely common decline in 2002. Abiotic variables, including water clarity, position of the 2 per thousand isohaline (X2), and the volume of freshwater exported from the estuary, explained some variation in species' abundances over the time series, but no selected covariates could explain statistically the post-2000 change points for any species.

Casas Muertas and Oficina No. 1: internal migrations and malaria trends in Venezuela 1905-1945.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando

2007-06-01

To compare internal migration and temperature as factors behind the decreasing trend in malaria deaths observed in Venezuela from 1905 to 1945, linear autoregressive models are fitted to a historical dataset. The model that only incorporates internal migration is the one with the best fit. The decreasing trend in malaria deaths in Venezuela, from 1905 to 1945, is not explained by a trend in mean annual temperature, but it is associated with an increase in the proportion of population in the Capital District, during a time period when the area was the principal attractor of migrations within the country.

FIRST OBSERVATIONAL SIGNATURE OF ROTATIONAL DECELERATION IN A MASSIVE, INTERMEDIATE-AGE STAR CLUSTER IN THE MAGELLANIC CLOUDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Xiaohan; Li, Chengyuan; De Grijs, Richard

While the extended main-sequence turnoffs (eMSTOs) found in almost all 1–2 Gyr old star clusters in the Magellanic Clouds are often explained by postulating extended star formation histories (SFHs), the tight subgiant branches (SGBs) seen in some clusters challenge this popular scenario. Puzzlingly, the SGB of the eMSTO cluster NGC 419 is significantly broader at bluer than at redder colors. We carefully assess and confirm the reality of this observational trend. If we would assume that the widths of the features in color–magnitude space were entirely owing to a range in stellar ages, the SFHs of the eMSTO stars andmore » the blue SGB region would be significantly more prolonged than that of the red part of the SGB. This cannot be explained by assuming an internal age spread. We show that rotational deceleration of a population of rapidly rotating stars, a currently hotly debated alternative scenario, naturally explains the observed trend along the SGB. Our analysis shows that a “converging” SGB could be produced if the cluster is mostly composed of rapidly rotating stars that slow down over time owing to the conservation of angular momentum during their evolutionary expansion from main-sequence turnoff stars to red giants.« less

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula; Iredell, Lena

2010-01-01

This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Nina in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5degN - 20degS latitude extending eastward from 150degW - 30 E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Nino, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as we] l as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over this region are all shown to be highly correlated in time with those of an El Nino anomaly index four months previously. The El Nino index is defined as the SST anomaly averaged over the area 15S to 15N and 160W eastward to 30E. If one excludes the area 5degN - 20degS, 150degW - 30degE from the statistics, the negative area mean tropical OLR trends, as well as OLR trends over the rest of the globe, are substantially

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Molnar, G. I.; Iredell, L. F.; Sounder Research Team

2010-12-01

Joel Susskind, Gyula Molnar, and Lena Iredell NASA GSFC Sounder Research Team Abstract This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 - February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Niña in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5°N - 20°S latitude extending eastward from 150°W - 30°E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Niño, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as well as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over this region are all shown to be highly correlated in time with those of an El Nino anomaly index four months previously. The El Nino index is defined as the SST anomaly averaged over the area 15S to 15N and 160W eastward to 30E. If one excludes the area 5°N - 20°S, 150°W - 30°E from the statistics, the negative area mean tropical OLR trends, as well as OLR trends over the rest of the globe, are substantially reduced over the time period under study.

Random forest meteorological normalisation models for Swiss PM10 trend analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grange, Stuart K.; Carslaw, David C.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph

2018-05-01

Meteorological normalisation is a technique which accounts for changes in meteorology over time in an air quality time series. Controlling for such changes helps support robust trend analysis because there is more certainty that the observed trends are due to changes in emissions or chemistry, not changes in meteorology. Predictive random forest models (RF; a decision tree machine learning technique) were grown for 31 air quality monitoring sites in Switzerland using surface meteorological, synoptic scale, boundary layer height, and time variables to explain daily PM10 concentrations. The RF models were used to calculate meteorologically normalised trends which were formally tested and evaluated using the Theil-Sen estimator. Between 1997 and 2016, significantly decreasing normalised PM10 trends ranged between -0.09 and -1.16 µg m-3 yr-1 with urban traffic sites experiencing the greatest mean decrease in PM10 concentrations at -0.77 µg m-3 yr-1. Similar magnitudes have been reported for normalised PM10 trends for earlier time periods in Switzerland which indicates PM10 concentrations are continuing to decrease at similar rates as in the past. The ability for RF models to be interpreted was leveraged using partial dependence plots to explain the observed trends and relevant physical and chemical processes influencing PM10 concentrations. Notably, two regimes were suggested by the models which cause elevated PM10 concentrations in Switzerland: one related to poor dispersion conditions and a second resulting from high rates of secondary PM generation in deep, photochemically active boundary layers. The RF meteorological normalisation process was found to be robust, user friendly and simple to implement, and readily interpretable which suggests the technique could be useful in many air quality exploratory data analysis situations.

Observationally derived rise in methane surface forcing mediated by water vapour trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, D. R.; Collins, W. D.; Biraud, S. C.; Risser, M. D.; Turner, D. D.; Gero, P. J.; Tadić, J.; Helmig, D.; Xie, S.; Mlawer, E. J.; Shippert, T. R.; Torn, M. S.

2018-04-01

Atmospheric methane (CH4) mixing ratios exhibited a plateau between 1995 and 2006 and have subsequently been increasing. While there are a number of competing explanations for the temporal evolution of this greenhouse gas, these prominent features in the temporal trajectory of atmospheric CH4 are expected to perturb the surface energy balance through radiative forcing, largely due to the infrared radiative absorption features of CH4. However, to date this has been determined strictly through radiative transfer calculations. Here, we present a quantified observation of the time series of clear-sky radiative forcing by CH4 at the surface from 2002 to 2012 at a single site derived from spectroscopic measurements along with line-by-line calculations using ancillary data. There was no significant trend in CH4 forcing between 2002 and 2006, but since then, the trend in forcing was 0.026 ± 0.006 (99.7% CI) W m2 yr-1. The seasonal-cycle amplitude and secular trends in observed forcing are influenced by a corresponding seasonal cycle and trend in atmospheric CH4. However, we find that we must account for the overlapping absorption effects of atmospheric water vapour (H2O) and CH4 to explain the observations fully. Thus, the determination of CH4 radiative forcing requires accurate observations of both the spatiotemporal distribution of CH4 and the vertically resolved trends in H2O.

Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the Western United States--Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettinger, M. D.; Knowles, N.; Cayan, D. R.

2015-12-01

Knowles et al. (J. Climate, 2006) documented long-term (1949-2004) trends in precipitation form, with a smaller fraction of precipitation falling, in recent decades, on days with reported snow compared to days when no snow was reported (and when precipitation was presumably rain). This precipitation-amount-corrected trend was found at three-quarters of 261 cooperative weather stations across the region. The trends correlated with corresponding trends towards warmer winter air temperatures at the weather stations involved. An update of those analyses through the more recent period indicates that the overall swing towards less precipitation fraction occurring on snowy days has continued through the intervening years, with 21st Century rain/snow fractions remaining significantly higher than historical norms at most stations. The same data have also been used to develop site-specific statistical relations between precipitation form (snowy-day precipitation vs purely rainy day) and air temperatures by logistical regressions at over 200 stations across the West, to determine whether the general temperature trends mentioned above have, in fact, been large enough to explain the trending precipitation forms. That is, were the warming trends detected across the West large enough to actually raise temperatures above the local snow-rain thresholds at most stations? The regression relations show that the temperature at which half of the wet days have been snowy historically varies, from station to station, across a range from -2ºC to +4ºC. Thus at some stations winter storm temperatures would have to rise above about -2ºC to markedly impact precipitation forms, while at other stations, temperature had to rise above +4ºC. Nonetheless, observed temperature trends since 1950 have been sufficient to explain the observed regional precipitation-form trends. The fitted precipitation form-temperature relations also provide a basis for estimating precipitation forms in hydrological models and in climate-change projections across the region, allowing—for example—more geographically informed projections of precipitation-form changes under future climates. On the whole, though, the expected relations between warming trends and precipitation-form trends found by Knowles et al. (2006) continue to hold.

Deep Ocean Warming Assessed from Altimeters, GRACE, 3 In-situ Measurements, and a Non-Boussinesq OGCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Y. Tony; Colberg, Frank

2011-01-01

Observational surveys have shown significant oceanic bottom water warming, but they are too spatially and temporally sporadic to quantify the deep ocean contribution to the present-day sea level rise (SLR). In this study, altimetry sea surface height (SSH), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) ocean mass, and in situ upper ocean (0-700 m) steric height have been assessed for their seasonal variability and trend maps. It is shown that neither the global mean nor the regional trends of altimetry SLR can be explained by the upper ocean steric height plus the GRACE ocean mass. A non-Boussinesq ocean general circulation model (OGCM), allowing the sea level to rise as a direct response to the heat added into the ocean, is then used to diagnose the deep ocean steric height. Constrained by sea surface temperature data and the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiation measurements, the model reproduces the observed upper ocean heat content well. Combining the modeled deep ocean steric height with observational upper ocean data gives the full depth steric height. Adding a GRACE-estimated mass trend, the data-model combination explains not only the altimetry global mean SLR but also its regional trends fairly well. The deep ocean warming is mostly prevalent in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, suggesting a strong relation to the oceanic circulation and dynamics. Its comparison with available bottom water measurements shows reasonably good agreement, indicating that deep ocean warming below 700 m might have contributed 1.1 mm/yr to the global mean SLR or one-third of the altimeter-observed rate of 3.11 +/- 0.6 mm/yr over 1993-2008.

Technetium: The First Radioelement on the Periodic Table

DOE PAGES

Johnstone, Erik V.; Yates, Mary Anne; Poineau, Frederic; ...

2017-02-21

The radioactive nature of technetium is discussed using a combination of introductory nuclear physics concepts and empirical trends observed in the chart of the nuclides and the periodic table of the elements. Trends such as the enhanced stability of nucleon pairs, magic numbers, and Mattauch's rule are described. Here, the concepts of nuclear binding energies and the nuclear shell model are introduced and used to explain the relative stability of radionuclides and, in particular, the isotopes of technetium.

Explaining Recent Trends in the U.S. Teen Birth Rate. NBER Working Paper No. 17964

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kearney, Melissa Schettini; Levine, Phillip B.

2012-01-01

We investigate possible explanations for the large decline in U.S. teen childbearing that occurred in the twenty years following the 1991 peak. Our review of previous evidence and the results of new analyses presented here leads to the following main set of observations. First, the observed decline in teen childbearing is even more surprising…

Stratospheric processes: Observations and interpretation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brune, William H.; Cox, R. Anthony; Turco, Richard; Brasseur, Guy P.; Matthews, W. Andrew; Zhou, Xiuji; Douglass, Anne; Zander, Rudi J.; Prendez, Margarita; Rodriguez, Jose M.

1991-01-01

Explaining the observed ozone trends discussed in an earlier update and predicting future trends requires an understanding of the stratospheric processes that affect ozone. Stratospheric processes occur on both large and small spatial scales and over both long and short periods of time. Because these diverse processes interact with each other, only in rare cases can individual processes be studied by direct observation. Generally the cause and effect relationships for ozone changes were established by comparisons between observations and model simulations. Increasingly, these comparisons rely on the developing, observed relationships among trace gases and dynamical quantities to initialize and constrain the simulations. The goal of this discussion of stratospheric processes is to describe the causes for the observed ozone trends as they are currently understood. At present, we understand with considerable confidence the stratospheric processes responsible for the Antarctic ozone hole but are only beginning to understand the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes. Even though the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes were not clearly determined, it is likely that they, just as those over Antarctica, involved chlorine and bromine chemistry that was enhanced by heterogeneous processes. This discussion generally presents only an update of the observations that have occurred for stratospheric processes since the last assessment (World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1990), and is not a complete review of all the new information about stratospheric processes. It begins with an update of the previous assessment of polar stratospheres (WMO, 1990), followed by a discussion on the possible causes for the ozone trends at middle latitudes and on the effects of bromine and of volcanoes.

Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30 years.

PubMed

Piao, Shilong; Yin, Guodong; Tan, Jianguang; Cheng, Lei; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Yue; Liu, Ronggao; Mao, Jiafu; Myneni, Ranga B; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Ben; Shi, Xiaoying; Xiao, Zhiqiang; Zeng, Ning; Zeng, ZhenZhong; Wang, Yingping

2015-04-01

The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. We use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41% of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAIGS) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070 yr(-1), ranging from 0.0035 yr(-1) to 0.0127 yr(-1)), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAIGS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAIGS (P < 0.05), and marginally significantly (P = 0.07) correlated with the residual of LAIGS trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. This result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Contribution of Increasing Glacial Freshwater Fluxes to Observed Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Sommer, J.; Merino, N.; Durand, G.; Jourdain, N.; Goosse, H.; Mathiot, P.; Gurvan, M.

2016-02-01

Southern Ocean sea-ice extent has experienced an overall positive trend over recent decades. While the amplitude of this trend is open to debate, the geographical pattern of regional changes has been clearly identified by observations. Mechanisms driving changes in the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE) are not fully understood and climate models fail to simulate these trends. Changes in different atmospheric features such as SAM or ENSO seem to explain the observed trend of Antartic sea ice, but only partly, since they can not account for the actual amplitude of the observed signal. The increasing injection of freshwater due to the accelerating ice discharge from Antarctica Ice Sheet (AIS) during the last two decades has been proposed as another candidate to contribute to SIE trend. However, the quantity and the distribution of the extra freshwater injection were not properly constrained. Recent glaciological estimations may improve the way the glacial freshwater is injected in the model. Here, we study the role of the glacial freshwater into the observed SIE trend, using the state-of-the-art Antarctic mass loss estimations. Ocean/sea-ice model simulations have been carried out with two different Antarctic freshwater scenarios corresponding to 20-years of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. The combination of an improved iceberg model with the most recent glaciological estimations has been applied to account for the most realistic possible Antarctic freshwater evolution scenarios. Results suggest that Antarctica has contributed to almost a 30% of the observed trend in regions of the South Pacific and South East Indian sectors, but has little impact in the South Atlantic sector. We conclude that the observed SIE trend over the last decades is due to a combination of both an atmospheric forcing and the extra freshwater injection. Our results advocates that the evolution of glacial freshwater needs to be correctly represented in climate models.

Analyte Flux at a Biomaterial–Tissue Interface over Time: Implications for Sensors for Type 1 and 2 Diabetes Mellitus

PubMed Central

Ekberg, Neda Rajamand; Brismar, Kerstin; Malmstedt, Jonas; Hedblad, Mari-Anne; Adamson, Ulf; Ungerstedt, Urban; Wisniewski, Natalie

2010-01-01

Objective The very presence of an implanted sensor (a foreign body) causes changes in the adjacent tissue that may alter the analytes being sensed. The objective of this study was to investigate changes in glucose availability and local tissue metabolism at the sensor–tissue interface in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Method Microdialysis was used to model implanted sensors. Capillary glucose and subcutaneous (sc) microdialysate analytes were monitored in five T1DM and five T2DM patients. Analytes included glucose, glycolysis metabolites (lactate, pyruvate), a lipolysis metabolite (glycerol), and a protein degradation byproduct (urea). On eight consecutive days, four measurements were taken during a period of steady state blood glucose. Results Microdialysate glucose and microdialysate-to-blood-glucose ratio increased over the first several days in all patients. Although glucose recovery eventually stabilized, the lactate levels continued to rise. These trends were explained by local inflammatory and microvascular changes observed in histological analysis of biopsy samples. Urea concentrations mirrored glucose trends. Urea is neither produced nor consumed in sc tissue, and so the initially increasing urea trend is explained by increased local capillary presence during the inflammatory process. Pyruvate in T2DM microdialysate was significantly higher than in T1DM, an observation that is possibly explained by mitochondrial dysfunction in T2DM. Glycerol in T2DM microdialysate (but not in T1DM) was higher than in healthy volunteers, which is likely explained by sc insulin resistance (insulin is a potent antilipolytic hormone). Urea was also higher in microdialysate of patients with diabetes mellitus compared to healthy volunteers. Urea is a byproduct of protein degradation, which is known to be inhibited by insulin. Therefore, insulin deficiency or resistance may explain the higher urea levels. To our knowledge, this is the first histological evaluation of a human tissue biopsy containing an implanted glucose monitoring device. Conclusions Monitoring metabolic changes at a material–tissue interface combined with biopsy histology helped to formulate an understanding of physiological changes adjacent to implanted glucose sensors. Microdialysate glucose trends were similar over 1-week in T1DM and T2DM; however, differences in other analytes indicated wound healing and metabolic activities in the two patient groups differ. We propose explanations for the specific observed differences based on differential insulin insufficiency/resistance and mitochondrial dysfunction in T1DM versus T2DM. PMID:20920426

Analyte flux at a biomaterial-tissue interface over time: implications for sensors for type 1 and 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Ekberg, Neda Rajamand; Brismar, Kerstin; Malmstedt, Jonas; Hedblad, Mari-Anne; Adamson, Ulf; Ungerstedt, Urban; Wisniewski, Natalie

2010-09-01

The very presence of an implanted sensor (a foreign body) causes changes in the adjacent tissue that may alter the analytes being sensed. The objective of this study was to investigate changes in glucose availability and local tissue metabolism at the sensor-tissue interface in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Microdialysis was used to model implanted sensors. Capillary glucose and subcutaneous (sc) microdialysate analytes were monitored in five T1DM and five T2DM patients. Analytes included glucose, glycolysis metabolites (lactate, pyruvate), a lipolysis metabolite (glycerol), and a protein degradation byproduct (urea). On eight consecutive days, four measurements were taken during a period of steady state blood glucose. Microdialysate glucose and microdialysate-to-blood-glucose ratio increased over the first several days in all patients. Although glucose recovery eventually stabilized, the lactate levels continued to rise. These trends were explained by local inflammatory and microvascular changes observed in histological analysis of biopsy samples. Urea concentrations mirrored glucose trends. Urea is neither produced nor consumed in sc tissue, and so the initially increasing urea trend is explained by increased local capillary presence during the inflammatory process. Pyruvate in T2DM microdialysate was significantly higher than in T1DM, an observation that is possibly explained by mitochondrial dysfunction in T2DM. Glycerol in T2DM microdialysate (but not in T1DM) was higher than in healthy volunteers, which is likely explained by sc insulin resistance (insulin is a potent antilipolytic hormone). Urea was also higher in microdialysate of patients with diabetes mellitus compared to healthy volunteers. Urea is a byproduct of protein degradation, which is known to be inhibited by insulin. Therefore, insulin deficiency or resistance may explain the higher urea levels. To our knowledge, this is the first histological evaluation of a human tissue biopsy containing an implanted glucose monitoring device. Monitoring metabolic changes at a material-tissue interface combined with biopsy histology helped to formulate an understanding of physiological changes adjacent to implanted glucose sensors. Microdialysate glucose trends were similar over 1-week in T1DM and T2DM; however, differences in other analytes indicated wound healing and metabolic activities in the two patient groups differ. We propose explanations for the specific observed differences based on differential insulin insufficiency/resistance and mitochondrial dysfunction in T1DM versus T2DM. © 2010 Diabetes Technology Society.

High-Contrast Imaging of Intermediate-Mass Giants with Long-Term Radial Velocity Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryu, Tsuguru; Sato, Bun'ei; Kuzuhara, Masayuki; Narita, Norio; Takahashi, Yasuhiro; Uyama, Taichi; Kudo, Tomoyuki; Kusakabe, Nobuhiko; Hashimoto, Jun; Omiya, Masashi;

High-contrast Imaging of Intermediate-mass Giants with Long-term Radial Velocity Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, Tsuguru; Sato, Bun'ei; Kuzuhara, Masayuki; Narita, Norio; Takahashi, Yasuhiro H.; Uyama, Taichi; Kudo, Tomoyuki; Kusakabe, Nobuhiko; Hashimoto, Jun; Omiya, Masashi; Harakawa, Hiroki; Abe, Lyu; Ando, Hiroyasu; Brandner, Wolfgang; Brandt, Timothy D.; Carson, Joseph C.; Currie, Thayne; Egner, Sebastian; Feldt, Markus; Goto, Miwa; Grady, Carol A.; Guyon, Olivier; Hayano, Yutaka; Hayashi, Masahiko; Hayashi, Saeko S.; Hełminiak, Krzysztof G.; Henning, Thomas; Hodapp, Klaus W.; Ida, Shigeru; Ishii, Miki; Itoh, Yoichi; Iye, Masanori; Izumiura, Hideyuki; Janson, Markus; Kambe, Eiji; Kandori, Ryo; Knapp, Gillian R.; Kokubo, Eiichiro; Kwon, Jungmi; Matsuo, Taro; Mayama, Satoshi; McElwain, Michael W.; Mede, Kyle; Miyama, Shoken; Morino, Jun-Ichi; Moro-Martin, Amaya; Nishimura, Tetsuo; Pyo, Tae-Soo; Serabyn, Eugene; Suenaga, Takuya; Suto, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Ryuji; Takami, Michihiro; Takato, Naruhisa; Takeda, Yoichi; Terada, Hiroshi; Thalmann, Christian; Turner, Edwin L.; Watanabe, Makoto; Wisniewski, John; Yamada, Toru; Yoshida, Michitoshi; Takami, Hideki; Usuda, Tomonori; Tamura, Motohide

2016-07-01

A radial velocity (RV) survey for intermediate-mass giants has been in operation for over a decade at Okayama Astrophysical Observatory (OAO). The OAO survey has revealed that some giants show long-term linear RV accelerations (RV trends), indicating the presence of outer companions. Direct-imaging observations can help clarify what objects generate these RV trends. We present the results of high-contrast imaging observations of six intermediate-mass giants with long-term RV trends using the Subaru Telescope and HiCIAO camera. We detected co-moving companions to γ Hya B ({0.61}-0.14+0.12{M}⊙ ), HD 5608 B (0.10+/- 0.01{M}⊙ ), and HD 109272 B (0.28+/- 0.06{M}⊙ ). For the remaining targets (ι Dra, 18 Del, and HD 14067), we exclude companions more massive than 30-60 M Jup at projected separations of 1″-7″. We examine whether these directly imaged companions or unidentified long-period companions can account for the RV trends observed around the six giants. We find that the Kozai mechanism can explain the high eccentricity of the inner planets ι Dra b, HD 5608 b, and HD 14067 b.

Explaining trends in addictive behaviour policy--the role of policy coherence.

PubMed

Adam, Christian; Raschzok, Andreas

2014-05-01

This article analyses addictive behaviour policy regimes - focusing on illegal drugs and gambling - in 19 countries over a period of 50 years. It compares how these countries have combined rules on the consumption and possession of cannabis and on the participation in sports betting with sanctions for violations of these rules. While theories of policy convergence can explain dominant trends in the way the combination of these policy instruments have changed, they cannot account for all of the empirical variation observed. Turning to Portugal, a case which deviates in both illegal drug and gambling policy from the expected trend, we show that explanations of policy change improve substantially when taking the concept of policy coherence into account. Specifically, we argue that changes of the policy status quo are facilitated when policy entrepreneurs succeed in shaping a perception of policy incoherence. In turn, when relevant actors are able to maintain a perception of policy coherence, the policy status quo is stabilized. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate-Driven Crop Yield and Yield Variability and Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. Great Plains Agricultural Production.

PubMed

Kukal, Meetpal S; Irmak, Suat

2018-02-22

Climate variability and trends affect global crop yields and are characterized as highly dependent on location, crop type, and irrigation. U.S. Great Plains, due to its significance in national food production, evident climate variability, and extensive irrigation is an ideal region of investigation for climate impacts on food production. This paper evaluates climate impacts on maize, sorghum, and soybean yields and effect of irrigation for individual counties in this region by employing extensive crop yield and climate datasets from 1968-2013. Variability in crop yields was a quarter of the regional average yields, with a quarter of this variability explained by climate variability, and temperature and precipitation explained these in singularity or combination at different locations. Observed temperature trend was beneficial for maize yields, but detrimental for sorghum and soybean yields, whereas observed precipitation trend was beneficial for all three crops. Irrigated yields demonstrated increased robustness and an effective mitigation strategy against climate impacts than their non-irrigated counterparts by a considerable fraction. The information, data, and maps provided can serve as an assessment guide for planners, managers, and policy- and decision makers to prioritize agricultural resilience efforts and resource allocation or re-allocation in the regions that exhibit risk from climate variability.

A Cooperative Classroom Investigation of Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Constible, Juanita; Sandro, Luke; Lee, Richard E., Jr.

2007-01-01

Scientists have a particularly difficult time explaining warming trends in Antarctica--a region with a relatively short history of scientific observation and a highly variable climate (Clarke et al. 2007). Regardless of the mechanism of warming, however, climate change is having a dramatic impact on Antarctic ecosystems. In this article, the…

A Review of Recent Changes in Southern Ocean Sea Ice, Their Drivers and Forcings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hobbs, William R.; Massom, Rob; Stammerjohn, Sharon; Reid, Phillip; Williams, Guy; Meier, Walter

2016-01-01

Over the past 37years, satellite records show an increase in Antarctic sea ice cover that is most pronounced in the period of sea ice growth. This trend is dominated by increased sea ice coverage in the western Ross Sea, and is mitigated by a strong decrease in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas. The trends in sea ice areal coverage are accompanied by related trends in yearly duration. These changes have implications for ecosystems, as well as global and regional climate. In this review, we summarize the researchto date on observing these trends, identifying their drivers, and assessing the role of anthropogenic climate change. Whilst the atmosphere is thought to be the primary driver, the ocean is also essential in explaining the seasonality of the trend patterns. Detecting an anthropogenic signal in Antarctic sea ice is particularly challenging for a number of reasons: the expected response is small compared to the very high natural variability of the system; the observational record is relatively short; and the ability of global coupled climate models to faithfully represent the complex Antarctic climate system is in doubt.

Distant drivers or local signals: where do mercury trends in western Arctic belugas originate?

PubMed

Loseto, L L; Stern, G A; Macdonald, R W

2015-03-15

Temporal trends of contaminants are monitored in Arctic higher trophic level species to inform us on the fate, transport and risk of contaminants as well as advise on global emissions. However, monitoring mercury (Hg) trends in species such as belugas challenge us, as their tissue concentrations reflect complex interactions among Hg deposition and methylation, whale physiology, dietary exposure and foraging patterns. The Beaufort Sea beluga population showed significant increases in Hg during the 1990 s; since that time an additional 10 years of data have been collected. During this time of data collection, changes in the Arctic have affected many processes that underlie the Hg cycle. Here, we examine Hg in beluga tissues and investigate factors that could contribute to the observed trends after removing the effect of age and size on Hg concentrations and dietary factors. Finally, we examine available indicators of climate variability (Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and sea-ice minimum (SIM) concentration) to evaluate their potential to explain beluga Hg trends. Results reveal a decline in Hg concentrations from 2002 to 2012 in the liver of older whales and the muscle of large whales. The temporal increases in Hg in the 1990 s followed by recent declines do not follow trends in Hg emission, and are not easily explained by diet markers highlighting the complexity of feeding, food web dynamics and Hg uptake. Among the regional-scale climate variables the PDO exhibited the most significant relationship with beluga Hg at an eight year lag time. This distant signal points us to consider beluga winter feeding areas. Given that changes in climate will impact ecosystems; it is plausible that these climate variables are important in explaining beluga Hg trends. Such relationships require further investigation of the multiple connections between climate variables and beluga Hg. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Attribution of the Regional Patterns of North American Climate Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M.; Kumar, A.; Karoly, D.; Rind, D.; Hegerl, G.; Eischeid, J.

2007-12-01

North American trends in surface temperature and precipitation during 1951-2006 exhibit large spatial and seasonal variations. We seek to explain these by synthesizing new information based on existing model simulations of climate and its forcing, and based on modern reanalyses that describe past and current conditions within the free atmosphere. The presentation focuses on current capabilities to explain the spatial variations and seasonal differences in North American climate trends. It will address whether various heterogeneities in space and time can be accounted for by the climate system's sensitivity to time evolving anthropogenic forcing, and examines the influences of non-anthropogenic processes. New findings are presented that indicate anthropogenic forcing alone was unlikely the cause for key regional and seasonal patterns of change, including the absence of summertime warming over the Great Plains of the United States, and the absence of warming during both winter and summer over the southern United States. Key regional features are instead attributed to trends in the principal patterns of atmospheric flow that affect North American climate. It is demonstrated that observed variations in global sea surface temperatures have significantly influenced these patterns of atmospheric flow.

Carbon and hydrogen isotopic reversals in deep basin gas: Evidence for limits to the stability of hydrocarbons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burruss, R.C.; Laughrey, C.D.

2010-01-01

During studies of unconventional natural gas reservoirs of Silurian and Ordovician age in the northern Appalachian basin we observed complete reversal of the normal trend of carbon isotopic composition, such that ??13C methane (C1) >??13C ethane (C2) >??13C propane (C3). In addition, we have observed isotopic reversals in the ??2H in the deepest samples. Isotopic reversals cannot be explained by current models of hydrocarbon gas generation. Previous observations of partial isotopic reversals have been explained by mixing between gases from different sources and thermal maturities. We have constructed a model which, in addition to mixing, requires Rayleigh fractionation of C2 and C3 to cause enrichment in 13C and create reversals. In the deepest samples, the normal trend of increasing enrichment of 13C and 2H in methane with increasing depth reverses and 2H becomes depleted as 13C becomes enriched. We propose that the reactions that drive Rayleigh fractionation of C2 and C3 involve redox reactions with transition metals and water at late stages of catagenesis at temperatures on the order of 250-300??C. Published ab initio calculated fractionation factors for C-C bond breaking in ethane at these temperatures are consistent with our observations. The reversed trend in ??2H in methane appears to be caused by isotopic exchange with formation water at the same temperatures. Our interpretation that Rayleigh fractionation during redox reactions is causing isotopic reversals has important implications for natural gas resources in deeply buried sedimentary basins. ?? 2010.

Low-high junction theory applied to solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Godlewski, M. P.; Baraona, C. R.; Brandhorst, H. W., Jr.

1974-01-01

Recent use of alloying techniques for rear contact formation has yielded a new kind of silicon solar cell, the back surface field (BSF) cell, with abnormally high open-circuit voltage and improved radiation resistance. Several analytical models for open-circuit voltage based on the reverse saturation current are formulated to explain these observations. The zero surface recombination velocity (SRV) case of the conventional cell model, the drift field model, and the low-high junction (LHJ) model can predict the experimental trends. The LHJ model applies the theory of the low-high junction and is considered to reflect a more realistic view of cell fabrication. This model can predict the experimental trends observed for BSF cells.

Correlation of white female breast cancer incidence trends with nitrogen dioxide emission levels and motor vehicle density patterns.

PubMed

Chen, Fan; Bina, William F

2012-02-01

The long-term trend of female breast cancer incidence rates in the United States and some European countries demonstrates a similar pattern: an increasing trend in the last century followed by a declining trend in this century. The well-known risk factors cannot explain this trend. We compared the breast cancer incidence trends obtained from SEER data with the trend of nitrogen dioxides (NOx) emission and monitoring data as well as motor vehicle density data. The upward followed by downward trend of NOx is similar to the breast cancer incidence trend but with an offset of 20 years earlier. Motor vehicles are the major source of NOx emissions. The geographic distribution of motor vehicles density in 1970 in the observed US counties is positively correlated with breast cancer incidence rates (R(2) 0.8418, the correlation coefficient = 0.9175) in 1980-1995. Because both the time trend and geographic pattern are associated with breast cancer incidence rates, further studies on the relationship between breast cancer and air pollution are needed.

Attribution of Trends and Variability in Surface Ozone over the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strode, Sarah; Cooper, Owen; Damo, Megan; Logan, Jennifer; Rodriquez, Jose; Strahan, Susan; Witte, Jacquie

2013-01-01

Concentrations of tropospheric ozone, a greenhouse gas and air pollutant, are impacted by changes in precursor emissions as well meteorology and influx from the stratosphere. Observations show a decreasing trend in summertime surface ozone at rural stations in the eastern United States, while some western stations show increasing trends, particularly in springtime. We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) global chemical transport model to investigate the roles of precursor emission changes, meteorological variability, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) in explaining observed trends in surface ozone from rural sites in the United States from 1991-2010. The model's interannual variability shows significant correlations with observations from many of the surface sites. We also compare the simulated ozone to ozonesonde data for several locations with sufficiently long records. We compare a simulation with time-dependent precursor emissions, including emission reductions over the United States and Europe and increases over Asia, to a simulation with fixed emissions to quantify the impact of changing emissions on the surface trends. The simulation with varying emissions reproduces much of the east-west difference in summertime ozone over the U.S., although it generally underestimates the negative trend in the East. In contrast, the fixed-emission simulation shows increasing ozone at both eastern and western sites. We will discuss possible causes of this behavior, including long-range transport and STE.

Date of Snowmelt at High Latitudes as Determined from Visible Satellite Data and Relationship with the Arctic Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, James; Robinson, Dave; Estilow, Tom; Hall, Dorothy

2012-01-01

Spring snow cover across Arctic lands has, on average, retreated approximately five days earlier since the late 1980s compared to the previous twenty years. However, it appears that since about 1990, the date the snowline first retreats north during the spring has remained nearly unchanged--in the last twenty years, the date of snow disappearance has not been occurring noticeably earlier. Snowmelt changes observed in the 1980s was step-like in nature, unlike a more continuous downward trend seen in Arctic sea ice extent. At latitude 70 deg N, several latitudinal segments (of 10 degrees) show significant (negative) trends. However, only two latitudinal segments at 60 deg N show significant trends, one positive and one negative. These variations appear to be related to variations in the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Additional observations and modeling investigations are needed to better explain past and present spring melt characteristics and peculiarities.

Investigating recent trends in the U.S. teen birth rate.

PubMed

Kearney, Melissa S; Levine, Phillip B

2015-05-01

We investigate trends in the U.S. rate of teen childbearing between 1981 and 2010, focusing specifically on the sizable decline since 1991. We focus on establishing the role of state-level demographic changes, economic conditions, and targeted policies in driving recent aggregate trends. We offer three main observations. First, the recent decline cannot be explained by the changing racial and ethnic composition of teens. Second, the only targeted policies that have had a statistically discernible impact on aggregate teen birth rates are declining welfare benefits and expanded access to family planning services through Medicaid, but these policies can account for only 12.6 percent of the observed decline since 1991. Third, higher unemployment rates lead to lower teen birth rates and can account for 16 percent of the decline in teen birth rates since the Great Recession began. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30 years

DOE PAGES

Piao, Shilong; Yin, Guodong; Tan, Jianguang; ...

2014-11-04

The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. Here, we use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41%more » of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAI GS) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070yr -1, ranging from 0.0035yr -1 to 0.0127yr -1), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAI GS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAI GS (P<0.05), and marginally significantly (P=0.07) correlated with the residual of LAI(GS) trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. In conclusion, this result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth.« less

Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30 years

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piao, Shilong; Yin, Guodong; Tan, Jianguang

The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. Here, we use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41%more » of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAI GS) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070yr -1, ranging from 0.0035yr -1 to 0.0127yr -1), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAI GS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAI GS (P<0.05), and marginally significantly (P=0.07) correlated with the residual of LAI(GS) trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. In conclusion, this result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth.« less

Changes in biological communities of the Fountain Creek Basin, Colorado, 2003–2016, in relation to antecedent streamflow, water quality, and habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James J.; Bruce, James F.; Zuellig, Robert E.

2018-01-08

The analysis described in this report is part of a longterm project monitoring the biological communities, habitat, and water quality of the Fountain Creek Basin. Biology, habitat, and water-quality data have been collected at 10 sites since 2003. These data include annual samples of aquatic invertebrate communities, fish communities, water quality, and quantitative riverine habitat. This report examines trends in biological communities from 2003 to 2016 and explores relationships between biological communities and abiotic variables (antecedent streamflow, physical habitat, and water quality). Six biological metrics (three invertebrate and three fish) and four individual fish species were used to examine trends in these data and how streamflow, habitat, and (or) water quality may explain these trends. The analysis of 79 trends shows that the majority of significant trends decreased over the trend period. Overall, 19 trends before adjustments for streamflow in the fish (12) and invertebrate (7) metrics were all decreasing except for the metric Invertebrate Species Richness at the most upstream site in Monument Creek. Seven of these trends were explained by streamflow and four trends were revealed that were originally masked by variability in antecedent streamflow. Only two sites (Jimmy Camp Creek at Fountain, CO and Fountain Creek near Pinon, CO) had no trends in the fish or invertebrate metrics. Ten of the streamflow-adjusted trends were explained by habitat, one was explained by water quality, and five were not explained by any of the variables that were tested. Overall, from 2003 to 2016, all the fish metric trends were decreasing with an average decline of 40 percent, and invertebrate metrics decreased on average by 9.5 percent. A potential peak streamflow threshold was identified above which there is severely limited production of age-0 flathead chub (Platygobio gracilis).

Hot spots, hot moments and time-span of changes in drivers and their responses on carbon cycling in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomelleri, E.; Forkel, M.; Fuchs, R.; Jung, M.; Mahecha, M. D.; Reichstein, M.; Weber, U.

2012-12-01

The objective of this study is to provide a complete quantitative assessment of the annual to decadal variability, hotspots of changes and the temporal magnitude of regional trends and variability for the main drivers of carbon cycle like climate and land use and their responses for Europe. For this purpose we used an harmonized climatic data set (ERA Interim and WATCH) and an historical land-use change reconstruction (HILDAv1, Fuchs in prep.). Both the data sets cover the period 1900-2010 and have a 0.25 deg spatial resolution. As driver response we used two different empirically up-scaled GPP fields: the first (MTE) obtained by the application of model trees (Jung et al. 2009) and a second (LUE) based on a light use efficiency model (Tomelleri in prep.). Both the approaches are based on the up-scaling of Fluxnet observations. The response fields have monthly temporal resolution and are limited to the period 1982-2011. We estimated break-points in time series of driver and response variables based on the method of Bai and Perron (2003) to identify changes in trends. This method was implemented in Verbesselt et al. 2010 and applied by deJong et al. 2011 to detect phenological and abrupt changes and trends in vegetation activity based on satellite-derived vegetation index time series. The analysis of drivers and responses allowed to identify the dominant factors driving the biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange. The synchronous analysis of climatic drivers and land use change allowed us to explain most of the temporal and spatial variability showing that in the regions and time period where the most land use change occurred the climatic drivers are not sufficient to explain trends and oscillation in carbon cycling. The comparison of our analysis for the up-scaling methods shows some agreement: we found inconsistency in the spatial and temporal patterns in regions where the Fluxnet network is less dense. This can be explained by the conceptual difference in the up-scaling methods: while one is on pixel basis (MTE) the other (LUE) is up-scaling model parameters by bioclimatic regions. Our study shows the value of up-scaling methods for understanding the spatial-temporal variability of carbon cycling and how these are a valuable tool for spatial and temporal analysis. Furthermore, the use of climatic drivers and land-use change demonstrated the need of taking natural and anthropogenic drivers into consideration for explaining trends and oscillations. Possibly a further analysis including detailed management practices for forestry and agriculture would help in explaining the remaining variance. References: Bai, J., Perron, P.: Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 2003. Jung, M., Reichstein, M., and Bondeau, A.: Towards global empirical upscaling of FLUXNET eddy covariance observations: validation of a model tree ensemble approach using a biosphere model. Biogeosciences, 6, 2009. Verbesselt, J., Hyndman, R., Newnham, G., Culvenor, D.: Detecting trend and seasonal changes in satellite image time series. Remote Sensing of Environment,114(1), 2010. de Jong, R., Verbesselt, J., Schaepman, M.E., Bruin, S.: Trend changes in global greening and browning: contribution of short-term trends to longer-term change. Global Change Biology, 18, 2011.

Phosphorus and nitrogen fluxes carried by 21 Finnish agricultural rivers in 1985-2006.

PubMed

Ekholm, Petri; Rankinen, Katri; Rita, Hannu; Räike, Antti; Sjöblom, Heidi; Raateland, Arjen; Vesikko, Ljudmila; Cano Bernal, José Enrique; Taskinen, Antti

2015-04-01

The Finnish Agri-Environmental Programme aims to reduce nutrient load to waters. Using national monitoring data, we estimated the agricultural load (incl. natural background) of total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) transported by 21 Finnish rivers to the northern Baltic Sea and analysed the flow-adjusted trends in the loads and concentrations from 1985 to 2006. We also related the loads to spatial and temporal patterns in catchment and agricultural characteristics. Agricultural load of TN increased, especially in the rivers discharging into the Bothnian Bay, while the load of TP decreased in most of the rivers, except those discharging into the Archipelago Sea. The trends may partly be related to a decrease in grassed area (TP, TN) and increased mineralisation (TN), but the available data on catchment and agricultural characteristics did not fully explain the observed pattern. Our study showed that data arising from relatively infrequent monitoring may prove useful for analysing long-term trend. The mutual correlation among the explaining variables hampered the analysis of the load generating factors.

Long-term trends in dissolved iron and DOC concentration linked to nitrate depletion in riparian soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musolff, Andreas; Selle, Benny; Fleckenstein, Jan H.; Oosterwoud, Marieke R.; Tittel, Jörg

2016-04-01

The instream concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) are rising in many catchments of the northern hemisphere. Elevated concentrations of DOC, mainly in the form of colored humic components, increase efforts and costs of drinking water purification. In this study, we evaluated a long-term dataset of 110 catchments draining into German drinking water reservoirs in order to assess sources of DOC and drivers of a potential long-term change. The average DOC concentrations across the wide range of different catchments were found to be well explained by the catchment's topographic wetness index. Higher wetness indices were connected to higher average DOC concentrations, which implies that catchments with shallow topography and pronounced riparian wetlands mobilize more DOC. Overall, 37% of the investigated catchments showed a significant long-term increase in DOC concentrations, while 22% exhibited significant negative trends. Moreover, we found that increasing trends in DOC were positively correlated to trends in dissolved iron concentrations at pH≤6 due to remobilization of DOC previously sorbed to iron minerals. Both, increasing trends in DOC and dissolve iron were found to be connected to decreasing trends and low concentrations of nitrate (below ~6 mg/L). This was especially observed in forested catchments where atmospheric N-depositions were the major source for nitrate availability. In these catchments, we also found long-term increases of phosphate concentrations. Therefore, we argue that dissolved iron, DOC and phosphate were jointly released under iron-reducing conditions when nitrate as a competing electron acceptor was too low in concentrations to prevent the microbial iron reduction. In contrast, we could not explain the observed increasing trends in DOC, iron and phosphate concentrations by the long-term trends of pH, sulfate or precipitation. Altogether this study gives strong evidence that both, source and long-term increases in DOC are primarily controlled by riparian wetland soils within the catchments. Here, the achievement of a long-term reduction in nitrogen deposition may in turn lead to a more pronounced iron reduction and a subsequent release of DOC and other iron-bound substances such as phosphate.

Is solar correction for long-term trend studies stable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laštovička, Jan

2017-04-01

When calculating long-term trends in the ionosphere, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle (i.e. of solar activity) must be removed from data, because it is much stronger than the long-term trend. When a data series is analyzed for trend, usual approach is first to calculate from all data their dependence on solar activity and create an observational model of dependence on solar activity. Then the model data are subtracted from observations and trend is computed from residuals. This means that it is assumed that the solar activity dependence is stable over the whole data series period of time. But what happens if it is not the case? As an ionospheric parameter we consider foE from two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence with one correction for the whole period is complex. For yearly average values for both stations first foE is slightly decreasing in 1975-1990, then the trend levels off or a very little increase occurs in 1990-2005, and finally in 2006-2014 a remarkable decrease is observed. This does not seem to be physically plausible. However, when the solar correction is calculated separately for the three above periods, we obtain a smooth slightly negative trend which changes after the mid-1990 into no trend in coincidence with change of ozone trend. While solar corrections for the first two periods are similar (even though not equal), the solar activity dependence of foE in the third period (lower solar activity) is clearly different. Also foF2 trend revealed some effect of unstable solar correction. Thus the stability of solar correction should be carefully tested when calculating ionospheric trends. This could perhaps explain some of differences between the past published trend results.

A method to assess the inter-annual weather-dependent variability in air pollution concentration and deposition based on weather typing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pleijel, Håkan; Grundström, Maria; Karlsson, Gunilla Pihl; Karlsson, Per Erik; Chen, Deliang

2016-02-01

Annual anomalies in air pollutant concentrations, and deposition (bulk and throughfall) of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium, in the Gothenburg region, south-west Sweden, were correlated with optimized linear combinations of the yearly frequency of Lamb Weather Types (LWTs) to determine the extent to which the year-to-year variation in pollution exposure can be partly explained by weather related variability. Air concentrations of urban NO2, CO, PM10, as well as O3 at both an urban and a rural monitoring site, and the deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium for the period 1997-2010 were included in the analysis. Linear detrending of the time series was performed to estimate trend-independent anomalies. These estimated anomalies were subtracted from observed annual values. Then the statistical significance of temporal trends with and without LWT adjustment was tested. For the pollutants studied, the annual anomaly was well correlated with the annual LWT combination (R2 in the range 0.52-0.90). Some negative (annual average [NO2], ammonia bulk deposition) or positive (average urban [O3]) temporal trends became statistically significant (p < 0.05) when the LWT adjustment was applied. In all the cases but one (NH4 throughfall, for which no temporal trend existed) the significance of temporal trends became stronger with LWT adjustment. For nitrate and ammonium, the LWT based adjustment explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variation for bulk deposition than for throughfall. This is probably linked to the longer time scale of canopy related dry deposition processes influencing throughfall being explained to a lesser extent by LWTs than the meteorological factors controlling bulk deposition. The proposed novel methodology can be used by authorities responsible for air pollution management, and by researchers studying temporal trends in pollution, to evaluate e.g. the relative importance of changes in emissions and weather variability in annual air pollution exposure.

An HIV Epidemic Model Based on Viral Load Dynamics: Value in Assessing Empirical Trends in HIV Virulence and Community Viral Load

PubMed Central

Herbeck, Joshua T.; Mittler, John E.; Gottlieb, Geoffrey S.; Mullins, James I.

2014-01-01

Trends in HIV virulence have been monitored since the start of the AIDS pandemic, as studying HIV virulence informs our understanding of HIV epidemiology and pathogenesis. Here, we model changes in HIV virulence as a strictly evolutionary process, using set point viral load (SPVL) as a proxy, to make inferences about empirical SPVL trends from longitudinal HIV cohorts. We develop an agent-based epidemic model based on HIV viral load dynamics. The model contains functions for viral load and transmission, SPVL and disease progression, viral load trajectories in multiple stages of infection, and the heritability of SPVL across transmissions. We find that HIV virulence evolves to an intermediate level that balances infectiousness with longer infected lifespans, resulting in an optimal SPVL∼4.75 log10 viral RNA copies/mL. Adaptive viral evolution may explain observed HIV virulence trends: our model produces SPVL trends with magnitudes that are broadly similar to empirical trends. With regard to variation among studies in empirical SPVL trends, results from our model suggest that variation may be explained by the specific epidemic context, e.g. the mean SPVL of the founding lineage or the age of the epidemic; or improvements in HIV screening and diagnosis that results in sampling biases. We also use our model to examine trends in community viral load, a population-level measure of HIV viral load that is thought to reflect a population's overall transmission potential. We find that community viral load evolves in association with SPVL, in the absence of prevention programs such as antiretroviral therapy, and that the mean community viral load is not necessarily a strong predictor of HIV incidence. PMID:24945322

Greening of the Earth and its drivers

DOE PAGES

Zhu, Zaichun; Piao, Shilong; Myneni, Ranga B.; ...

2016-04-25

Global environmental change is rapidly altering the dynamics of terrestrial vegetation, with consequences for the functioning of the Earth system and provision of ecosystem services 1, 2. Yet how global vegetation is responding to the changing environment is not well established. Here we use three long-term satellite leaf area index (LAI) records and ten global ecosystem models to investigate four key drivers of LAI trends during 1982 2009. We show a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing LAImore » (browning). Factorial simulations with multiple global ecosystem models suggest that CO 2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend, followed by nitrogen deposition (9%), climate change (8%) and land cover change (LCC) (4%). CO 2 fertilization effects explain most of the greening trends in the tropics, whereas climate change resulted in greening of the high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau. LCC contributed most to the regional greening observed in southeast China and the eastern United States. In conclusion, the regional effects of unexplained factors suggest that the next generation of ecosystem models will need to explore the impacts of forest demography, differences in regional management intensities for cropland and pastures, and other emerging productivity constraints such as phosphorus availability.« less

Greening of the Earth and its drivers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Zaichun; Piao, Shilong; Myneni, Ranga B.

Global environmental change is rapidly altering the dynamics of terrestrial vegetation, with consequences for the functioning of the Earth system and provision of ecosystem services 1, 2. Yet how global vegetation is responding to the changing environment is not well established. Here we use three long-term satellite leaf area index (LAI) records and ten global ecosystem models to investigate four key drivers of LAI trends during 1982 2009. We show a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing LAImore » (browning). Factorial simulations with multiple global ecosystem models suggest that CO 2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend, followed by nitrogen deposition (9%), climate change (8%) and land cover change (LCC) (4%). CO 2 fertilization effects explain most of the greening trends in the tropics, whereas climate change resulted in greening of the high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau. LCC contributed most to the regional greening observed in southeast China and the eastern United States. In conclusion, the regional effects of unexplained factors suggest that the next generation of ecosystem models will need to explore the impacts of forest demography, differences in regional management intensities for cropland and pastures, and other emerging productivity constraints such as phosphorus availability.« less

Functional Detachment of Totalitarian Nazi Architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoszczyszyn, Marek

2017-10-01

The paper describes the systematization process of architectural styles in use during Nazi period in Germany between 1933-45. In the results of the research some regularity about strict concern between function & styling has been observed. Using comparison & case study as well as analytical methods there were pointed out characteristic features of more than 500 objects’ architectural appearance that helped to specify their styling & group them into architectural trends. Ultimately the paper proves that the found trends of architectural styling could be collected by functional detachment key. This observation explains easy to recognize even nowadays traceability - so characteristic to Nazi German architecture. Facing today pluralism in architecture, the findings could be a helpful key in the organization of spatial architectural identification process.

Trend and Variability of China Precipitation in Spring and Summer: Linkage to Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Fanglin; Lau, K.-M.

2004-01-01

Observational records in the past 50 years show an upward trend of boreal-summer precipitation over central eastern China and a downward trend over northern China. During boreal spring, the trend is upward over southeastern China and downward over central eastern China. This study explores the forcing mechanism of these trends in association with the global sea-surface temperature (SST) variations on the interannual and inter-decadal timescales. Results based on Singular Value Decomposition analyses (SVD) show that the interannual variability of China precipitation in boreal spring and summer can be well defined by two centers of actions for each season, which are co-varying with two interannual modes of SSTs. The first SVD modes of precipitation in spring and summer, which are centered in southeastern China and northern China, respectively, are linked to an ENSO-like mode of SSTs. The second SVD modes of precipitation in both seasons are confined to central eastern China, and are primarily linked to SST variations over the warm pool and Indian Ocean. Features of the anomalous 850-hPa winds and 700-Wa geopotential height corresponding to these modes support a physical mechanism that explains the causal links between the modal variations of precipitation and SSTs. On the decadal and longer timescale, similar causal links are found between the same modes of precipitation and SSTs, except for the case of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For this case, while the interannual mode of precipitation is positively correlated with the interannual variations of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean; the inter-decadal mode is negatively correlated with a different SST mode, the North Pacific mode. The later is responsible for the observed downward trend of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For all other cases, both the interannual and inter-decadal variations of precipitation can be explained by the same mode of SSTs. The upward trend of springtime precipitation over southeastern China and downward trend of summertime precipitation over northern China are attributable to the warming trend of the ENSO-like mode. The recent frequent summertime floods over central eastern China are linked to the warming trend of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean.

Trends in ecosystem water use efficiency are potentially amplified by plasticity in plant functional traits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrotheodoros, Theodoros; Pappas, Christoforos; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo; Keenan, Trevor F.; Gentine, Pierre; Fatichi, Simone

2017-04-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations stimulate photosynthesis and reduce stomatal conductance, modifying plant water use efficiency. We analyzed eddy covariance flux tower observations from 20 forested ecosystems across the Northern Hemisphere. For these sites, a previous study showed an increase in inherent water use efficiency (IWUE) five times greater than expectations. We used an updated dataset and robust uncertainty quantification to analyze these contemporary trends in IWUE. We found that IWUE increased in the last 15-20 years by roughly 1.4% yr-1, which is less than previously reported, but still 2.8 times greater than theoretical expectations. Numerical simulations by means of an ecosystem model based on temporally static plant functional traits (i.e. model parameters) do not reproduce this increase. We tested the hypothesis that the observed increase in IWUE could be attributed to changes in plant functional traits, potentially triggered by environmental changes. Simulation results accounting for trait plasticity (i.e. by changing model parameters such as specific leaf area and maximum Rubisco capacity) match the observed trends in IWUE, with an increase in both leaf internal CO2 concentration and gross ecosystem production (GEP), and with a negligible trend in evapotranspiration (ET). This supports the hypothesis that changes in plant functional traits of about 1.0% yr-1 can explain the observed IWUE trends and are consistent with observed trends of GEP and ET at larger scales. Our results highlight that at decadal or longer time scales trait plasticity can considerably influence the water, carbon and energy fluxes with implications for both the monitoring of temporal changes in plant traits and their representation in Earth system models.

Secular changes of the M2 tide in the Gulf of Maine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.

2005-01-01

Analyses of long time series of hourly tide-gauge data at four stations in the Gulf of Maine reveal that the amplitude of the M2 tide underwent a nearly linear secular increase throughout most of the twentieth century. In the early 1980s, however, the amplitude of M2 abruptly dropped. Sea level changes alone appear inadequate to explain either the long-term trend or the recent trend discontinuity. Tidal models that account for Holocene sea level rise do predict an amplification of M2, but much smaller than the currently observed trends. Nor do recent annual mean sea levels correlate with the recent trend discontinuity. Some unknown fraction of the open Atlantic may be similarly affected, since the M2 discontinuity, but not the long-term secular increase in the tide, is evident also at Halifax.

Paying for Undergraduate Business Education: Recent Trends in Tuition, Income, Institution Choice, and Debt

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ball, Jennifer A.; Ockree, Kanalis A.

2017-01-01

In 1999-2000, business students borrowed substantially less to pay for their educations than nonbusiness students. By 2011-2012 this difference had disappeared. The authors describe changes in tuition, grants, incomes, and choice of institution type (public, private not-for-profit, or private for-profit) to help explain this observation. They find…

Pesticide trends in major rivers of the United States, 1992-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Martin, Jeffrey D.

2014-01-01

This report is part of a series of pesticide trend assessments led by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. This assessment focuses on major rivers of various sizes throughout the United States that have large watersheds with a range of land uses, changes in pesticide use, changes in management practices, and natural influences typical of the regions being drained. Trends were assessed at 59 sites for 40 pesticides and pesticide degradates during each of three overlapping periods: 1992–2001, 1997–2006, and 2001–10. In addition to trends in concentration, trends in agricultural-use intensity (agricultural use) were also assessed at 57 of the sites for 35 parent compounds with agricultural uses during the same three periods. The SEAWAVE-Q model was used to analyze trends in concentration, and parametric survival regression for interval-censored data was used to assess trends in agricultural use. All trends are provided in downloadable electronic files. A subset of 39 sites was chosen to represent non-nested, generally independent basins for a national analysis of pesticide and agricultural-use trends for the most prevalent pesticides (15 pesticides and 2 degradation products). Graphical and numerical results are presented to provide a national overview of concentration and use trends. As another perspective on understanding pesticide concentration trends in large rivers in relation to multiple tributary watersheds, this report also presents a detailed assessment of concentration and use trends for simazine, metolachlor, atrazine, deethylatrazine, and diazinon for a set of 17 nested sites in the Mississippi River Basin (including the Ohio and Missouri River Basins), for the second and third trend periods. Pesticides strongly dominated by agricultural use—cyanazine, metolachlor, atrazine, and alachlor—had widespread agreement between concentration trends and agricultural-use trends. Pesticides with substantial use in agricultural and urban applications—simazine, tebuthiuron, Dacthal, pendimethalin, chlorpyrifos, malathion, diazinon, fipronil, carbofuran, and carbaryl—had concentration trends that were mostly explained by a combination of agricultural-use trends and concentration trends in urban streams that were evaluated in a separate companion study. The importance of the urban stream trends for explaining concentration trends in major rivers indicates the significance of nonagricultural uses of some pesticides to concentrations in major rivers despite the much smaller area of urban land use compared to agriculture. Deethylatrazine, a degradate of atrazine, was the only pesticide compound assessed that had frequent occurrences during 1997–2006 and 2001–10 of concentration trends in the opposite direction of use trends (atrazine use). The nested analysis for the Mississippi River indicates that most trends observed in the largest rivers—multiple Mississippi River sites, the Ohio River, and the Missouri River—are consistent with streamflow contributions and concentration trends observed at tributary sites. Streamflow (incorporated into the trend model and shown in the nested basin analysis), trends in agricultural use of pesticides (quantified in this report), and urban use of pesticides (represented by concentration trends in a companion study of urban streams) are all important influences on pesticide concentrations in streams and rivers. Consideration of these influences is vital to understanding trends in pesticide concentrations.

Is There a Need to Discuss Atomic Orbital Overlap When Teaching Hydrogen-Halide Bond Strength and Acidity Trends in Organic Chemistry?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Devarajan, Deepa; Gustafson, Samantha J.; Bickelhaupt, F. Matthias; Ess, Daniel H.

2015-01-01

Undergraduate organic chemistry textbooks and Internet websites use a variety of approaches for presenting and explaining the impact of halogen atom size on trends in bond strengths and/or acidity of hydrogen halides. In particular, several textbooks and Internet websites explain these trends by invoking decreasing orbital overlap between the…

Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkhordarian, Armineh; von Storch, Hans; Zorita, Eduardo; Loikith, Paul C.; Mechoso, Carlos R.

2017-10-01

We investigate whether the recently observed trends in daily maximum and minimum near-surface air temperature (Tmax and Tmin, respectively) over South America (SA) are consistent with the simulated response of Tmin and Tmax to anthropogenic forcing. Results indicate that the recently observed warming in the dry seasons is well beyond the range of natural (internal) variability. In the wet season the natural modes of variability explain a substantial portion of Tmin and Tmax variability. We demonstrate that the large-scale component of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is detectable in dry-seasonal warming. However, none of the global and regional climate change projections reproduce the observed warming of up to 0.6 K/Decade in Tmax in 1983-2012 over northern SA during the austral spring (SON). Thus, besides the global manifestation of GHG forcing, other external drivers have an imprint. Using aerosols-only forcing simulations, our results provide evidence that anthropogenic aerosols also have a detectable influence in SON and that the indirect effect of aerosols on cloud's lifetime is more compatible with the observed record. In addition, there is an increasing trend in the observed incoming solar radiation over northern SA in SON, which is larger than expected from natural (internal) variability alone. We further show that in the dry seasons the spread of projected trends based on the RCP4.5 scenario derived from 30 CMIP5 models encompasses the observed area-averaged trends in Tmin and Tmax. This may imply that the observed excessive warming in the dry seasons serve as an illustration of plausible future expected change in the region.

Expanding Antarctic Sea Ice: Anthropogenic or Natural Variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bitz, C. M.

2016-12-01

Antarctic sea ice extent has increased over the last 36 years according to the satellite record. Concurrent with Antarctic sea-ice expansion has been broad cooling of the Southern Ocean sea-surface temperature. Not only are Southern Ocean sea ice and SST trends at odds with expectations from greenhouse gas-induced warming, the trend patterns are not reproduced in historical simulations with comprehensive global climate models. While a variety of different factors may have contributed to the observed trends in recent decades, we propose that it is atmospheric circulation changes - and the changes in ocean circulation they induce - that have emerged as the most likely cause of the observed Southern Ocean sea ice and SST trends. I will discuss deficiencies in models that could explain their incorrect response. In addition, I will present results from a series of experiments where the Antarctic sea ice and ocean are forced by atmospheric perturbations imposed within a coupled climate model. Figure caption: Linear trends of annual-mean SST (left) and annual-mean sea-ice concentration (right) over 1980-2014. SST is from NOAA's Optimum Interpolation SST dataset (version 2; Reynolds et al. 2002). Sea-ice concentration is from passive microwave observations using the NASA Team algorithm. Only the annual means are shown here for brevity and because the signal to noise is greater than in the seasonal means. Figure from Armour and Bitz (2015).

Trends in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in the great lakes atmosphere.

PubMed

Sun, Ping; Blanchard, Pierrette; Brice, Kenneth A; Hites, Ronald A

2006-10-15

Atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs) concentrations were measured in both the vapor and particle phases at seven sites near the Great Lakes as a part of the Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network. Lower molecular weight PAHs, including fluorene, phenanthrene, fluoranthrene, and pyrene, were dominant in the vapor phase, and higher molecular weight PAHs, including chrysene, benzo[a]pyrene, and coronene, were dominant in the particle phase. The highest PAH concentrations in both the vapor and particle phases were observed in Chicago followed by the semiurban site at Sturgeon Point, NY. The spatial difference of PAH concentrations can be explained by the local population density. Long-term decreasing trends of most PAH concentrations were observed in both the vapor and particle phases at Chicago, with half-lives ranging from 3-10 years in the vapor phase and 5-15 years in the particle phase. At Eagle Harbor, Sleeping Bear Dunes, and Sturgeon Point, total PAH concentrations in the vapor phase showed significant, but slow, long-term decreasing trends. At the Sturgeon Point site, which was impacted by a nearby city, particle-phase PAH concentrations also declined. However, most particle-phase PAH concentrations did not show significant long-term decreasing trends at the remote sites. Seasonal trends were also observed for particle-phase PAH concentrations, which were higher in the winter and lower in the summer.

The Climate-Population Nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging Degradation Trends in Rangeland and Pastoral Livelihood Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pricope, N. G.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

2014-12-01

Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. We identify regions where significant rainfall decrease from 1979-2011 over the entire continent of Africa couples with significant human population density increase. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that widespread degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using two underutilized MODIS products, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade all across the East African Horn. We observe significant vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation trends only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, further indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes are responsible for the observed declining vegetation health. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, indicating potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends.

The sodium and potassium atmosphere of the moon and its interaction with the surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sprague, A. L.; Kozlowski, R. W. H.; Hunten, D. M.; Wells, W. K.; Grosse, F. A.

1992-01-01

Results are presented from Apollo satellite observations (from May 1988 to July 1991) of sodium and potassium in the lunar atmosphere. The observations of Na and K show a wide range of scale heights, single-component temperatures, and surface number densities, while the column abundances remain within a factor of 3. The observed trends can be explained using a model of competing release mechanisms with different dependences on solar zenith angle and resulting two-component atmospheres. The theory is applied to the budget of atomic oxygen.

Inability of CMIP5 Climate Models to Simulate Recent Multi-decadal Climate Change in the Tropical Pacific.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, S.; Delage, F.; Kociuba, G.; Wang, G.; Smith, I.

2017-12-01

Observed 15-year surface temperature trends beginning 1998 or later have attracted a great deal of interest because of an apparent slowdown in the rate of global warming, and contrasts between climate model simulations and observations of such trends. Many studies have addressed the statistical significance of these relatively short trends, whether they indicate a possible bias in models and the implications for global warming generally. Here we analyse historical and projected changes in 38 CMIP5 climate models. All of the models simulate multi-decadal warming in the Pacific over the past half-century that exceeds observed values. This stark difference cannot be fully explained by observed, internal multi-decadal climate variability, even if allowance is made for an apparent tendency for models to underestimate internal multi-decadal variability in the Pacific. We also show that CMIP5 models are not able to simulate the magnitude of the strengthening of the Walker Circulation over the past thirty years. Some of the reasons for these major shortcomings in the ability of models to simulate multi-decadal variability in the Pacific, and the impact these findings have on our confidence in global 21st century projections, will be discussed.

Numerical calculations of spectral turnover and synchrotron self-absorption in CSS and GPS radio sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeyakumar, S.

2016-06-01

The dependence of the turnover frequency on the linear size is presented for a sample of Giga-hertz Peaked Spectrum and Compact Steep Spectrum radio sources derived from complete samples. The dependence of the luminosity of the emission at the peak frequency with the linear size and the peak frequency is also presented for the galaxies in the sample. The luminosity of the smaller sources evolve strongly with the linear size. Optical depth effects have been included to the 3D model for the radio source of Kaiser to study the spectral turnover. Using this model, the observed trend can be explained by synchrotron self-absorption. The observed trend in the peak-frequency-linear-size plane is not affected by the luminosity evolution of the sources.

Coping with increasing water and land resources limitation for meeting world's food needs: the role of virtual water and virtual land trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soriano, Barbara; Garrido, Alberto; Novo, Paula

2013-04-01

Increasing pressure to expand agriculture production is giving rise to renewed interest to obtain access to land and water resources in the world. Water footprint evaluations show the importance of green water in global food trade and production. Green water and land are almost inseparable resources. In this work we analyse the role of foreign direct investment and cooperation programmes from developed countries in developing counties, focusing on virtual water trade and associated resources. We develop econometric models with the aim to explain observed trends in virtual water exports from developing countries as explained by the inverse flow of investments and cooperation programmes. We analyse the main 19 emerging food exporters, from Africa, Asia and America, using 15 years of data. Results show that land per capita availability and foreign direct investments explain observed flows of virtual water exports. However, there is no causality with these and flows cooperation investments. Our analysis sheds light on the underlying forces explaining the phenomenon of land grab, which is the appropriation of land access in developing countries by food-importers.

A Test of Model Validation from Observed Temperature Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, S. F.

2006-12-01

How much of current warming is due to natural causes and how much is manmade? This requires a comparison of the patterns of observed warming with the best available models that incorporate both anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) as well as natural climate forcings (solar and volcanic). Fortunately, we have the just published U.S.-Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) report (www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/default.htm), based on best current information. As seen in Fig. 1.3F of the report, modeled surface temperature trends change little with latitude, except for a stronger warming in the Arctic. The observations, however, show a strong surface warming in the northern hemisphere but not in the southern hemisphere (see Fig. 3.5C and 3.6D). The Antarctic is found to be cooling and Arctic temperatures, while currently rising, were higher in the 1930s than today. Although the Executive Summary of the CCSP report claims "clear evidence" for anthropogenic warming, based on comparing tropospheric and surface temperature trends, the report itself does not confirm this. Greenhouse models indicate that the tropics should provide the most sensitive location for their validation; trends there should increase by 200-300 percent with altitude, peaking at around 10 kilometers. The observations, however, show the opposite: flat or even decreasing tropospheric trend values (see Fig. 3.7 and also Fig. 5.7E). This disparity is demonstrated most strikingly in Fig. 5.4G, which shows the difference between surface and troposphere trends for a collection of models (displayed as a histogram) and for balloon and satellite data. [The disparities are less apparent in the Summary, which displays model results in terms of "range" rather than as histograms.] There may be several possible reasons for the disparity: Instrumental and other effects that exaggerate or otherwise distort observed temperature trends. Or, more likely: Shortcomings in models that result in much reduced values of climate sensitivity; for example, the neglect of important negative feedbacks. Allowing for uncertainties in the data and for imperfect models, there is only one valid conclusion from the failure of greenhouse models to explain the observations: The human contribution to global warming is still quite small, so that natural climate factors are dominant. This may also explain why the climate was cooling from 1940 to 1975 -- even as greenhouse-gas levels increased rapidly. An overall test for climate prediction may soon be possible by measuring the ongoing rise in sea level. According to my estimates, sea level should rise by 1.5 to 2.0 cm per decade (about the same rate as in past millennia); the U.N.-IPCC (4th Assessment Report) predicts 1.4 to 4.3 cm per decade. In the New York Review of Books (July 13, 2006), however, James Hansen suggests 20 feet or more per century -- equivalent to about 60 cm or more per decade.

Recent Trends of Summer Convective and Stratiform Precipitation in Mid-Eastern China

PubMed Central

Fu, Yunfei; Chen, Fengjiao; Liu, Guosheng; Yang, Yuanjian; Yuan, Renmin; Li, Rui; Liu, Qi; Wang, Yu; Zhong, Lei; Sun, Liang

2016-01-01

Many studies have reported on the trends of precipitation in Mid-Eastern China (EC). However, the trends of convective and stratiform precipitation are still unknown. Here, we examine the trends of summer convective and stratiform precipitation in EC from 2002 to 2012 on the basis of the TRMM observations. Results revealed that the rain frequency (RF) for both convective and stratiform precipitation increased in majority regions of Southern EC (SEC), but decreased in Northwest part of Northern EC (NEC). The decreasing rate of RF for stratiform precipitation in NEC is twice as much as that for convective precipitation, while the increase of convective precipitation in SEC is more evident than stratiform precipitation. The rain rate (RR) exhibited a decreasing trend in most portions of EC for both convective and stratiform precipitation. In SEC, neither PW nor WVT has good ability in explaining the precipitation variability. However, in NEC, PW is closely correlated to convective RF and WVT is more closely related to stratiform RF. PMID:27604846

Cancer incidence rates and trends among children and adolescents in Piedmont, 1967-2011.

PubMed

Isaevska, Elena; Manasievska, Milena; Alessi, Daniela; Mosso, Maria Luisa; Magnani, Corrado; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Pastore, Guido; Fagioli, Franca; Merletti, Franco; Maule, Milena

2017-01-01

In the past, increases in childhood cancer incidence were reported in Europe and North America. The aim of this study is to show updated patterns of temporal behavior using data of the Childhood Cancer Registry of Piedmont (CCRP), a region with approximately 4.5 million inhabitants in North-West Italy. CCRP has been recording incident cases in children (0-14 years) since 1967 and in adolescents (15-19) since 2000. Time trends were estimated as annual percent change (APC) over the 1976-2011 period for children, and over 2000-2011 for both children and adolescents. CCRP registered 5020 incident cases from 1967 to 2011. Incidence rates were 157 per million person-years for children (1967-2011) and 282 for adolescents (2000-2011). From 1976-2011, increasing trends were observed in children for all neoplasms (APC 1.1, 95%CI: 0.8; 1.5) and for both embryonal and non-embryonal tumors: 1.1%, (0.5; 1.6) and 1.2%, (0.7; 1.6), respectively. Increases were observed in several tumor types, including leukemia, lymphoma, central nervous system tumors and neuroblastoma. In 2000-2011, incidence rates showed mostly non statistically significant variations and large variability. The observation of trends over a long period shows that the incidence of most tumors has increased, and this is only partially explained by diagnostic changes. Large rate variability hampers interpretation of trend patterns in short periods. Given that no satisfying explanation for the increases observed in the past was ever found, efforts must be made to understand and interpret this peculiar and still ununderstood pattern of childhood cancer incidence.

Particulate matter levels in a South American megacity: the metropolitan area of Lima-Callao, Peru.

PubMed

Silva, Jose; Rojas, Jhojan; Norabuena, Magdalena; Molina, Carolina; Toro, Richard A; Leiva-Guzmán, Manuel A

2017-11-13

The temporal and spatial trends in the variability of PM 10 and PM 2.5 from 2010 to 2015 in the metropolitan area of Lima-Callao, Peru, are studied and interpreted in this work. The mean annual concentrations of PM 10 and PM 2.5 have ranges (averages) of 133-45 μg m -3 (84 μg m -3 ) and 35-16 μg m -3 (26 μg m -3 ) for the monitoring sites under study. In general, the highest annual concentrations are observed in the eastern part of the city, which is a result of the pattern of persistent local winds entering from the coast in a south-southwest direction. Seasonal fluctuations in the particulate matter (PM) concentrations are observed; these can be explained by subsidence thermal inversion. There is also a daytime pattern that corresponds to the peak traffic of a total of 9 million trips a day. The PM 2.5 value is approximately 40% of the PM 10 value. This proportion can be explained by PM 10 re-suspension due to weather conditions. The long-term trends based on the Theil-Sen estimator reveal decreasing PM 10 concentrations on the order of -4.3 and -5.3% year -1 at two stations. For the other stations, no significant trend is observed. The metropolitan area of Lima-Callao is ranked 12th and 16th in terms of PM 10 and PM 2.5 , respectively, out of 39 megacities. The annual World Health Organization thresholds and national air quality standards are exceeded. A large fraction of the Lima population is exposed to PM concentrations that exceed protection thresholds. Hence, the development of pollution control and reduction measures is paramount.

Relationship Between Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Heat Balance Trends in the Tropical Oceans: The Crucial Role of Surface Wind Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.; Sun, X.

2016-12-01

Multiple atmospheric and ocean reanalyses are analyzed for 1980-2015 to understand annual-mean adjustments of the surface heat balance over the tropical oceans as the climate warms. Linear trends are examined, with statistical significance evaluated. While surface heat budgets and sea surface temperatures are mutually adjusted fields, insights into the physical processes of this adjustment and the implications for temperature trends can be identified. Two second-generation reanalyses, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, agree well on the distributions and magnitudes of trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere to the ocean. Trends in the net longwave and sensible heat fluxes are generally small, and trends in solar radiation absorbed are only influential regionally and vary among the reanalyses. The largest contribution is from latent heat flux trends. Contributions to these trends associated with surface temperature (thermal-driving), 10-m wind (dynamical-driving) and specific humidity (hydrological-driving) trends are estimated. The dynamically-driven latent heat flux dominates and explains much of the regionality of the multi-decadal heat flux trends. However, trends in the net surface heat flux alone do not match the observed SSTs trends well, indicating that the redistribution of heat within the ocean mixed layer is also important. Ocean mixed layer heat budgets in various ocean reanalyses are examined to understand this redistribution, and we again identify a crucial role for changes in the surface wind. Acceleration of the tropical easterlies is associated with strengthening of the equatorial undercurrents in both the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. In the Pacific, where the EUC is also shoaling, the result is enhanced warm-water advection into the central Pacific. This advective warming is superimposed on cooling due to enhanced evaporation and equatorial upwelling, which are also associated with wind trends, to determine the observed pattern of SST trends.

Contribution of Changing Sources and Sinks to the Growth Rate of Atmospheric Methane Concentrations for the Last Two Decades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matthews, Elaine; Walter, B.; Bogner, J.; Sarma, D.; Portney, B.; Hansen, James (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

In situ measurements of atmospheric methane concentrations begun in the early 1980s show decadal trends, as well as large interannual variations, in growth rate. Recent research indicates that while wetlands can explain several of the large growth anomalies for individual years, the decadal trend may be the combined effect of increasing sinks, due to increases in tropospheric OH, and stabilizing sources. We discuss new 20-year histories of annual, global source strengths for all major methane sources, i.e., natural wetlands, rice cultivation, ruminant animals, landfills, fossil fuels, and biomass burning, and present estimates of the temporal pattern of the sink required to reconcile these sources and atmospheric concentrations over the time period. Analysis of the individual emission sources, together with model-derived estimates of the OH sink strength, indicates that the growth rate of atmospheric methane observed over the last 20 years can only be explained by a combination of changes in source emissions and an increasing tropospheric sink.

Sea level anomaly on the Patagonian continental shelf: Trends, annual patterns and geostrophic flows

PubMed Central

Saraceno, M.; Piola, A. R.; Strub, P. T.

2016-01-01

Abstract We study the annual patterns and linear trend of satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) over the southwest South Atlantic continental shelf (SWACS) between 54ºS and 36ºS. Results show that south of 42°S the thermal steric effect explains nearly 100% of the annual amplitude of the SLA, while north of 42°S it explains less than 60%. This difference is due to the halosteric contribution. The annual wind variability plays a minor role over the whole continental shelf. The temporal linear trend in SLA ranges between 1 and 5 mm/yr (95% confidence level). The largest linear trends are found north of 39°S, at 42°S and at 50°S. We propose that in the northern region the large positive linear trends are associated with local changes in the density field caused by advective effects in response to a southward displacement of the South Atlantic High. The causes of the relative large SLA trends in two southern coastal regions are discussed as a function meridional wind stress and river discharge. Finally, we combined the annual cycle of SLA with the mean dynamic topography to estimate the absolute geostrophic velocities. This approach provides the first comprehensive description of the seasonal component of SWACS circulation based on satellite observations. The general circulation of the SWACS is northeastward with stronger/weaker geostrophic currents in austral summer/winter. At all latitudes, geostrophic velocities are larger (up to 20 cm/s) close to the shelf‐break and decrease toward the coast. This spatio‐temporal pattern is more intense north of 45°S. PMID:27840784

Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmstorf, S.; Caesar, L.; Feulner, G.; Robinson, A.; Saba, V. S.

2017-12-01

The overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean (AMOC) has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution over the past hundred years or so is poorly known for lack of direct measurements. We use a high-resolution global climate model to derive a characteristic spatial and seasonal fingerprint of AMOC changes and compare this to the observed linear temperature trend since 1870. Both the model and observations show a remarkably similar pattern of a cooling in the subpolar gyre region (most pronounced for the November to May season) and a warming in the Gulf Stream region which in their combination can only be explained by a reduction in the AMOC. We explain the mechanisms that link the pattern to an AMOC slowdown, and use an ensemble of CMIP5 simulations to calibrate the observed decline. This suggests a weakening of the AMOC by 3 Sv ( 16%) since the mid-20th Century. Its recent evolution is consistent with direct measurements in the RAPID project and reaches record low values in recent years.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clark, Richard A.; McNamara, Bruce K.; Barinaga, Charles J.

The first electron ionization mass spectrum of tellurium hexafluoride (TeF6) is reported. The starting material was produced by direct fluorination of Te metal or TeO2 with nitrogen trifluoride. Formation of TeF6 was confirmed through cryogenic capture of the tellurium fluorination product and analysis through Raman spectroscopy. The eight natural abundance isotopes were observed for each of the set of fragment ions: TeF5+, TeF4+ TeF3+, TeF2+, TeF1+, and Te+, Te2+. A trend in increasing abundance was observed for the even fluoride bearing ions: TeF1+ < TeF3+ < TeF5+, and a decreasing abundance was observed for the even fragment series: Te(0)+ >more » TeF2+ > TeF4+ > TeF6+, with the molecular ion TeF6+ not observed at all. Density functional theory based electronic structure calculations were used to calculate optimized ground state geometries of these gas phase species and their relative stabilities explain the trends in the data and the lack of observed signal for TeF6+.« less

Trends of tropospheric NO2 over the Yangtze River Delta region and the possible linkage to rapid urbanization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Mingliang; Zhang, Deying; Liu, Qiyang; Song, Yue; Zhou, Jiayuan; Shi, Runhe; Gao, Wei

2017-09-01

Over the past decade, China has experienced a rapid increase in urbanization. The urban built-up areas (population) of Shanghai increased by 16.1% (22.9%) from 2006 to 2015. This study aims to analyze the variations of tropospheric NO2 over Yangtze River Delta region and the impacts of rapid urbanization during 2006-2015. The results indicate that tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) of all cities in the study area showed an increasing trend during 2006-2011 whereas a decreasing trend during 2011-2015. Most cities showed a lower tropospheric NO2 VCD value in 2015 compared to that in 2006, except for Changzhou and Nantong. Shanghai and Ningbo are two hotspots where the tropospheric NO2 VCD decreased most significantly, at a rate of 22% and 19%, respectively. This effect could be ascribed to the implementation of harsh emission control policies therein. Similar seasonal variability was observed over all cities, with larger values observed in the summer and smaller values shown in the winter. Further investigations show that the observed increasing trend of tropospheric NO2 during 2006-2011 could be largely explained by rapid urbanization linked to car ownership, GDP, power consumption, population and total industrial output. Such effect was not prominent after 2011, mainly due to the implementation of emission control strategies.

Beware of ligand efficiency (LE): understanding LE data in modeling structure-activity and structure-economy relationships.

PubMed

Polanski, Jaroslaw; Tkocz, Aleksandra; Kucia, Urszula

2017-09-11

On the one hand, ligand efficiency (LE) and the binding efficiency index (BEI), which are binding properties (B) averaged versus the heavy atom count (HAC: LE) or molecular weight (MW: BEI), have recently been declared a novel universal tool for drug design. On the other hand, questions have been raised about the mathematical validity of the LE approach. In fact, neither the critics nor the advocates are precise enough to provide a generally understandable and accepted chemistry of the LE metrics. In particular, this refers to the puzzle of the LE trends for small and large molecules. In this paper, we explain the chemistry and mathematics of the LE type of data. Because LE is a weight metrics related to binding per gram, its hyperbolic decrease with an increasing number of heavy atoms can be easily understood by its 1/MW dependency. Accordingly, we analyzed how this influences the LE trends for ligand-target binding, economic big data or molecular descriptor data. In particular, we compared the trends for the thermodynamic ∆G data of a series of ligands that interact with 14 different target classes, which were extracted from the BindingDB database with the market prices of a commercial compound library of ca. 2.5 mln synthetic building blocks. An interpretation of LE and BEI that clearly explains the observed trends for these parameters are presented here for the first time. Accordingly, we show that the main misunderstanding of the chemical meaning of the BEI and LE parameters is their interpretation as molecular descriptors that are connected with a single molecule, while binding is a statistical effect in which a population of ligands limits the formation of ligand-receptor complexes. Therefore, LE (BEI) should not be interpreted as a molecular (physicochemical) descriptor that is connected with a single molecule but as a property (binding per gram). Accordingly, the puzzle of the surprising behavior of LE is explained by the 1/MW dependency. This effect clearly explains the hyperbolic LE trend not as a real increase in binding potency but as a physical limitation due to the different population of ligands with different MWs in a 1 g sample available for the formation of ligand-receptor complexes. Graphical abstract .

Centennial changes in North Pacific anoxia linked to tropical trade winds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deutsch, Curtis; Berelson, William; Thunell, Robert; Weber, Thomas; Tems, Caitlin; McManus, James; Crusius, John; Ito, Taka; Baumgartner, Timothy; Ferreira, Vicente; Mey, Jacob; van Geen, Alexander

2014-01-01

Climate warming is expected to reduce oxygen (O2) supply to the ocean and expand its oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). We reconstructed variations in the extent of North Pacific anoxia since 1850 using a geochemical proxy for denitrification (δ15N) from multiple sediment cores. Increasing δ15N since ~1990 records an expansion of anoxia, consistent with observed O2 trends. However, this was preceded by a longer declining δ15N trend that implies that the anoxic zone was shrinking for most of the 20th century. Both periods can be explained by changes in winds over the tropical Pacific that drive upwelling, biological productivity, and O2 demand within the OMZ. If equatorial Pacific winds resume their predicted weakening trend, the ocean’s largest anoxic zone will contract despite a global O2 decline.

Secular trends in growth.

PubMed

Fudvoye, Julie; Parent, Anne-Simone

2017-06-01

Human adult height has been increasing world-wide for a century and a half. The rate of increase depends on time and place of measurement. Final height appears to have reached a plateau in Northern European countries but it is still increasing in southern European countries as well as Japan. While mean birth length has not changed recently in industrialized countries, the secular trend finally observed in adult height mostly originates during the first 2 years of life. Secular trend in growth is a marker of public health and provides insights into the interaction between growth and environment. It has been shown to be affected by income, social status, infections and nutrition. While genetic factors cannot explain such rapid changes in average population height, epigenetic factors could be the link between growth and environment. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Meige syndrome: double-blind crossover study of sodium valproate.

PubMed Central

Snoek, J W; van Weerden, T W; Teelken, A W; van den Burg, W; Lakke, J P

1987-01-01

A double-blind crossover study of sodium valproate and placebo was conducted in five patients with Meige syndrome. CSF neurotransmitter studies were performed at the end of each treatment period. GABA levels were not influenced by the administration of sodium valproate. An increase in HVA levels was observed in every patient, which may reflect an increase in central dopaminergic activity. This finding may explain the trend towards clinical deterioration which was observed during treatment with sodium valproate. Sodium valproate appears to be ineffective in Meige syndrome. PMID:3121795

Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 2: The roles of anthropogenic emissions and climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Wanyun; Xu, Xiaobin; Lin, Meiyun; Lin, Weili; Tarasick, David; Tang, Jie; Ma, Jianzhong; Zheng, Xiangdong

2018-01-01

Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in tropospheric ozone are both environmental and climate concerns. Ozone measured at Mt Waliguan Observatory (WLG, 3816 m a.s.l.) on the Tibetan Plateau over the period of 1994-2013 has increased significantly by 0.2-0.3 ppbv yr-1 during spring and autumn but shows a much smaller trend in winter and no significant trend in summer. Here we explore the factors driving the observed ozone changes at WLG using backward trajectory analysis, chemistry-climate model hindcast simulations (GFDL AM3), a trajectory-mapped ozonesonde data set, and several climate indices. A stratospheric ozone tracer implemented in GFDL AM3 indicates that stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) can explain ˜ 60 % of the simulated springtime ozone increase at WLG, consistent with an increase in the NW air-mass frequency inferred from the trajectory analysis. Enhanced STT associated with the strengthening of the mid-latitude jet stream contributes to the observed high ozone anomalies at WLG during the springs of 1999 and 2012. During autumn, observations at WLG are more heavily influenced by polluted air masses originating from South East Asia than in the other seasons. Rising Asian anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors are the key driver of increasing autumnal ozone observed at WLG, as supported by the GFDL AM3 model with time-varying emissions, which captures the observed ozone increase (0.26 ± 0.11 ppbv yr-1). AM3 simulates a greater ozone increase of 0.38 ± 0.11 ppbv yr-1 at WLG in autumn under conditions with strong transport from South East Asia and shows no significant ozone trend in autumn when anthropogenic emissions are held constant in time. During summer, WLG is mostly influenced by easterly air masses, but these trajectories do not extend to the polluted regions of eastern China and have decreased significantly over the last 2 decades, which likely explains why summertime ozone measured at WLG shows no significant trend despite ozone increases in eastern China. Analysis of the Trajectory-mapped Ozonesonde data set for the Stratosphere and Troposphere (TOST) and trajectory residence time reveals increases in direct ozone transport from the eastern sector during autumn, which adds to the autumnal ozone increase. We further examine the links of ozone variability at WLG to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and the sunspot cycle. Our results suggest that the 2-3-, 3-7-, and 11-year periodicities are linked to the QBO, EASM index, and sunspot cycle, respectively. A multivariate regression analysis is performed to quantify the relative contributions of various factors to surface ozone concentrations at WLG. Through an observational and modelling analysis, this study demonstrates the complex relationships between surface ozone at remote locations and its dynamical and chemical influencing factors.

Why poverty remains high: the role of income growth, economic inequality, and changes in family structure, 1949-1999.

PubMed

Iceland, John

2003-08-01

After dramatic declines in poverty from 1950 to the early 1970s in the United States, progress stalled. This article examines the association between trends in poverty and income growth, economic inequality, and changes in family structure using three measures of poverty: an absolute measure, a relative measure, and a quasi-relative one. I found that income growth explains most of the trend in absolute poverty, while inequality generally plays the most significant role in explaining trends in relative poverty. Rising inequality in the 1970s and 1980s was especially important in explaining increases in poverty among Hispanics, whereas changes in family structure played a significant role for children and African Americans through 1990. Notably, changes in family structure no longer had a significant association with trends in poverty for any group in the 1990s.

Sunshine duration and global radiation trends in Italy (1959-2013): To what extent do they agree?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manara, V.; Brunetti, M.; Maugeri, M.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.; Wild, M.

2017-04-01

Two Italian homogenized data sets of sunshine duration (SD) and global radiation (Eg↓) relative anomalies are used to investigate to what extent these two variables agree with respect to their temporal evolution. They are compared for northern and southern Italy over the period 1959-2013. Both under all-sky and clear-sky conditions, the SD records tend to show a shorter and less intense decrease until the 1980s ("global dimming") with respect to the Eg↓ ones, while there is a better agreement in the subsequent period when both variables increase ("brightening period"). To investigate whether such behavior can be explained by a different sensitivity of SD and Eg↓ to atmospheric turbidity variations, the observed clear-sky trends are compared to those estimated by a model based both on Lambert-Beer's law and on a simple estimation of diffuse radiation. Results show that most of the differences observed in the trends of the clear-sky SD and Eg↓ records can be explained considering a realistic pattern of atmospheric turbidity in the 1959-2013 period. The only exception concerns winter and autumn in northern Italy where clear-sky SD does not decrease in the dimming period as much as it would be expected on the basis of the corresponding increase in atmospheric turbidity. One reason for this discrepancy could be the influence of other variables like relative humidity. This case study highlights that changes in atmospheric turbidity have to be kept in mind when SD is used to investigate the multidecadal evolution of Eg↓.

Longitudinal trends and subgroup analysis in publication patterns for preclinical data of newly approved drugs.

PubMed

Köster, Ursula; Nolte, Ingo; Michel, Martin C

2016-02-01

Having observed a large variation in the number and type of original preclinical publications for newly registered drugs, we have explored whether longitudinal trends and/or factors specific for certain drugs or their manufacturers may explain such variation. Our analysis is based on 1954 articles related to 170 newly approved drugs. The number of preclinical publications per compound declined from a median of 10.5 in 1991 to 3 in 2011. A similar trend was observed for the number of in vivo studies in general, but not in the subset of in vivo studies in animal models of disease. The percentage of compounds with studies using isolated human cells or cell lines almost doubled over time from 37 to 72%. Number of publications did not exhibit major differences between compounds intended for human versus veterinary use, therapeutic areas, small molecules versus biologicals, or innovator versus follow-up compounds; however, some companies may publish fewer studies per compound than others. However, there were qualitative differences in the types of models being used depending on the therapeutic area; specifically, compounds for use in oncology very often used isolated cells and cell lines, often from human origin. We conclude that the large variation in number and type of reported preclinical data is not easily explained. We propose that pharmaceutical companies should consistently provide a comprehensive documentation of the preclinical data they generate as part of their development programs in the public domain to enable a better understanding of the drugs they intend to market.

Hg Stable Isotope Time Trend in Ringed Seals Registers Decreasing Sea Ice Cover in the Alaskan Arctic.

PubMed

Masbou, Jérémy; Point, David; Sonke, Jeroen E; Frappart, Frédéric; Perrot, Vincent; Amouroux, David; Richard, Pierre; Becker, Paul R

2015-08-04

Decadal time trends of mercury (Hg) concentrations in Arctic biota suggest that anthropogenic Hg is not the single dominant factor modulating Hg exposure to Arctic wildlife. Here, we present Hg speciation (monomethyl-Hg) and stable isotopic composition (C, N, Hg) of 53 Alaskan ringed seal liver samples covering a period of 14 years (1988-2002). In vivo metabolic effects and foraging ecology explain most of the observed 1.6 ‰ variation in liver δ(202)Hg, but not Δ(199)Hg. Ringed seal habitat use and migration were the most likely factors explaining Δ(199)Hg variations. Average Δ(199)Hg in ringed seal liver samples from Barrow increased significantly from +0.38 ± 0.08‰ (±SE, n = 5) in 1988 to +0.59 ± 0.07‰ (±SE, n = 7) in 2002 (4.1 ± 1.2% per year, p < 0.001). Δ(199)Hg in marine biological tissues is thought to reflect marine Hg photochemistry before biouptake and bioaccumulation. A spatiotemporal analysis of sea ice cover that accounts for the habitat of ringed seals suggests that the observed increase in Δ(199)Hg may have been caused by the progressive summer sea ice disappearance between 1988 and 2002. While changes in seal liver Δ(199)Hg values suggests a mild sea ice control on marine MMHg breakdown, the effect is not large enough to induce measurable HgT changes in biota. This suggests that Hg trends in biota in the context of a warming Arctic are likely controlled by other processes.

Weakened stratospheric quasibiennial oscillation driven by increased tropical mean upwelling.

PubMed

Kawatani, Yoshio; Hamilton, Kevin

2013-05-23

The zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere switches between prevailing easterlies and westerlies with a period of about 28 months. In the lowermost stratosphere, the vertical structure of this quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) is linked to the mean upwelling, which itself is a key factor in determining stratospheric composition. Evidence for changes in the QBO have until now been equivocal, raising questions as to the extent of stratospheric circulation changes in a global warming context. Here we report an analysis of near-equatorial radiosonde observations for 1953-2012, and reveal a long-term trend of weakening amplitude in the zonal wind QBO in the tropical lower stratosphere. The trend is particularly notable at the 70-hectopascal pressure level (an altitude of about 19 kilometres), where the QBO amplitudes dropped by roughly one-third over the period. This trend is also apparent in the global warming simulations of the four models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) that realistically simulate the QBO. The weakening is most reasonably explained as resulting from a trend of increased mean tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. Almost all comprehensive climate models have projected an intensifying tropical upwelling in global warming scenarios, but attempts to estimate changes in the upwelling by using observational data have yielded ambiguous, inconclusive or contradictory results. Our discovery of a weakening trend in the lower-stratosphere QBO amplitude provides strong support for the existence of a long-term trend of enhanced upwelling near the tropical tropopause.

Revealing Fact or Fiction in Spitzer Exoplanet Phase Curve Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bean, Jacob; Parmentier, Vivien; Mansfield, Megan; Cowan, Nicolas; Kempton, Eliza; Desert, Jean-Michel; Swain, Mark; Dang, Lisa; Bell, Taylor; Keating, Dylan; Zellem, Robert; Fortney, Jonathan; Line, Michael; Kreidberg, Laura; Stevenson, Kevin

2018-05-01

The constraints on energy transport in exoplanet atmospheres from phase curve observations is sure to be one of Spitzer's enduring legacies. However, with phase curves for 17 planets now observed we find that the previously observed trends are not coming into sharper focus. Instead, these trends in hot spot offset and day-night flux contrast vs. the fundamental planetary parameters expected to control the energy transport (e.g., irradiation and rotational period) are becoming more uncertain due to the recent discovery of outliers. At the same time, there is a growing understanding that a number of factors like magnetic fields, aerosols, and molecular chemistry could be confounding the search for these correlations. We propose a final phase curve program to advance our understanding of energy transport in transiting exoplanet atmospheres and to cement Spitzer's legacy on this topic. This program tackles the outstanding questions in this area with a comprehensive, two-pronged approach: (1) a survey of an additional 10 high signal-to-noise planets that span a broad parameter space and (2) a search for magnetic field-induced variability in the planet HAT-P-7b. The expanded survey will bring additional statistical power to the search for trends and will enable us to determine if the recently-detected outliers are indeed oddities or are instead actually representative of the intrinsic sample diversity. The variability search will test the hypothesis that the atmospheric dynamics of the partially ionized atmospheres of close-in planets are influenced by magnetic fields, which could explain the observed scatter around the existing trends. All observations will be performed at 4.5 microns, which is the consensus best channel for these measurements. The dataset from this program will provide vital context for JWST observations and will not be superseded until ARIEL flies more than a decade from now.

Chemical trends in ocean islands explained by plume–slab interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dannberg, Juliane; Gassmöller, Rene

2018-04-01

Earth's surface shows many features, of which the genesis can be understood only through their connection with processes in Earth's deep interior. Recent studies indicate that spatial geochemical patterns at oceanic islands correspond to structures in the lowermost mantle inferred from seismic tomographic models. This suggests that hot, buoyant upwellings can carry chemical heterogeneities from the deep lower mantle toward the surface, providing a window to the composition of the lowermost mantle. The exact nature of this link between surface and deep Earth remains debated and poorly understood. Using computational models, we show that subducted slabs interacting with dense thermochemical piles can trigger the ascent of hot plumes that inherit chemical gradients present in the lowermost mantle. We identify two key factors controlling this process: (i) If slabs induce strong lower-mantle flow toward the edges of these piles where plumes rise, the pile-facing side of the plume preferentially samples material originating from the pile, and bilaterally asymmetric chemical zoning develops. (ii) The composition of the melt produced reflects this bilateral zoning if the overlying plate moves roughly perpendicular to the chemical gradient in the plume conduit. Our results explain some of the observed geochemical trends of oceanic islands and provide insights into how these trends may originate.

Variations between Dust and Gas in the Diffuse Interstellar Medium. III. Changes in Dust Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reach, William T.; Bernard, Jean-Philippe; Jarrett, Thomas H.; Heiles, Carl

2017-12-01

We study infrared emission of 17 isolated, diffuse clouds with masses of order {10}2 {M}ȯ to test the hypothesis that grain property variations cause the apparently low gas-to-dust ratios that have been measured in those clouds. Maps of the clouds were constructed from Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) data and directly compared with the maps of dust optical depth from Planck. The mid-infrared emission per unit dust optical depth has a significant trend toward lower values at higher optical depths. The trend can be quantitatively explained by the extinction of starlight within the clouds. The relative amounts of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon and very small grains traced by WISE, compared with large grains tracked by Planck, are consistent with being constant. The temperature of the large grains significantly decreases for clouds with larger dust optical depth; this trend is partially due to dust property variations, but is primarily due to extinction of starlight. We updated the prediction for molecular hydrogen column density, taking into account variations in dust properties, and find it can explain the observed dust optical depth per unit gas column density. Thus, the low gas-to-dust ratios in the clouds are most likely due to “dark gas” that is molecular hydrogen.

Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan Plateau?

PubMed

Duan, Anmin; Xiao, Zhixiang

2015-09-02

The surface air temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau is determined based on historical observations from 1980 to 2013. In contrast to the cooling trend in the rest of China, and the global warming hiatus post-1990s, an accelerated warming trend has appeared over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998-2013 (0.25 °C decade(-1)), compared with that during 1980-1997 (0.21 °C decade(-1)). Further results indicate that, to some degree, such an accelerated warming trend might be attributable to cloud-radiation feedback. The increased nocturnal cloud over the northern Tibetan Plateau would warm the nighttime temperature via enhanced atmospheric back-radiation, while the decreased daytime cloud over the southern Tibetan Plateau would induce the daytime sunshine duration to increase, resulting in surface air temperature warming. Meanwhile, the in situ surface wind speed has recovered gradually since 1998, and thus the energy concentration cannot explain the accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau after the 1990s. It is suggested that cloud-radiation feedback may play an important role in modulating the recent accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau.

Deciphering the contrasting climatic trends between the central Himalaya and Karakoram with 36 years of WRF simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norris, Jesse; Carvalho, Leila M. V.; Jones, Charles; Cannon, Forest

2018-02-01

Glaciers over the central Himalaya have retreated at particularly rapid rates in recent decades, while glacier mass in the Karakoram appears stable. To address the meteorological factors associated with this contrast, 36 years of Climate Forecast System Reanalyses (CFSR) are dynamically downscaled from 1979 to 2015 with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over High Mountain Asia at convection permitting grid spacing (6.7 km). In all seasons, CFSR shows an anti-cyclonic warming trend over the majority of High Mountain Asia, but distinctive differences are observed between the central Himalaya and Karakoram in winter and summer. In winter and summer, the central Himalaya has been under the influence of an anti-cyclonic trend, which in summer the downscaling shows has reduced cloud cover, leading to significant warming and reduced snowfall in recent years. Contrastingly, the Karakoram has been near the boundary between large-scale cyclonic and anti-cyclonic trends and has not experienced significant snowfall or temperature changes in winter or summer, despite significant trends in summer of increasing cloud cover and decreasing shortwave radiation. This downscaling does not identify any trends over glaciers in closer neighboring regions to the Karakoram (e.g., Hindu Kush and the western Himalaya) where glaciers have retreated as over the central Himalaya, indicating that there are other factors driving glacier mass balance that this downscaling is unable to capture. While this study does not fully explain the Karakoram anomaly, the identified trends detail important meteorological contributions to the observed differences between central Himalaya and Karakoram glacier evolution in recent decades.

Trends in active pharmaceutical ingredient salt selection based on analysis of the Orange Book database.

PubMed

Paulekuhn, G Steffen; Dressman, Jennifer B; Saal, Christoph

2007-12-27

The Orange Book database published by the U.S. Drug and Food Administration (FDA) was analyzed for the frequency of occurrence of different counterions used for the formation of pharmaceutical salts. The data obtained from the present analysis of the Orange Book are compared to reviews of the Cambridge Structural Database (CSD) and of the Martindale "The Extra Pharmacopoeia". As well as showing overall distributions of counterion usage, results are broken down into 5-year increments to identify trends in counterion selection. Chloride ions continue to be the most frequently utilized anionic counterions for the formation of salts as active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), while sodium ions are most widely utilized for the formation of salts starting from acidic molecules. A strong trend toward a wider variety of counterions over the past decade is observed. This trend can be explained by a stronger need to improve physical chemical properties of research and development compounds.

Unexpected slowdown of US pollutant emission reduction in the past decade

PubMed Central

McDonald, Brian C.; Worden, Helen; Worden, John R.; Miyazaki, Kazuyuki; Qu, Zhen; Henze, Daven K.; Jones, Dylan B. A.; Fischer, Emily V.; Zhu, Liye; Boersma, K. Folkert

2018-01-01

Ground and satellite observations show that air pollution regulations in the United States (US) have resulted in substantial reductions in emissions and corresponding improvements in air quality over the last several decades. However, large uncertainties remain in evaluating how recent regulations affect different emission sectors and pollutant trends. Here we show a significant slowdown in decreasing US emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and carbon monoxide (CO) for 2011–2015 using satellite and surface measurements. This observed slowdown in emission reductions is significantly different from the trend expected using US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) bottom-up inventories and impedes compliance with local and federal agency air-quality goals. We find that the difference between observations and EPA’s NOx emission estimates could be explained by: (i) growing relative contributions of industrial, area, and off-road sources, (ii) decreasing relative contributions of on-road gasoline, and (iii) slower than expected decreases in on-road diesel emissions. PMID:29712822

Analysis and modeling of flicker noise in lateral asymmetric channel MOSFETs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agarwal, Harshit; Kushwaha, Pragya; Gupta, Chetan; Khandelwal, Sourabh; Hu, Chenming; Chauhan, Yogesh Singh

2016-01-01

In this paper, flicker noise behavior of lateral non-uniformly doped MOSFET is studied using impedance field method. Our study shows that Klaassen Prins (KP) method, which forms the basis of noise model in MOSFETs, underestimates flicker noise in such devices. The same KP method overestimates thermal noise by 2-3 orders of magnitude in similar devices as demonstrated in Roy et al. (2007). This apparent discrepancy between thermal and flicker noise behavior lies in origin of these noises, which leads to opposite trend of local noise power spectral density vs doping. We have modeled the physics behind such behavior, which also explain the trends observed in the measurements (Agarwal et al., 2015).

Ground-water levels and quality data for Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1979-01-01

This report begins a publication format that will present annually both water-level and water-quality data in Georgia. In this format the information is presented in two-page units: the left page includes text which summarizes the information for an area or subject and the right page consists of one or more illustrations. Daily mean water-level fluctuations and trends are shown in hydrographs for the previous year and fluctuations for the monthly mean water level the previous 10 years for selected observation wells. The well data best illustrate the effects of changes in recharge and discharge in the various ground-water reservoirs in the State. A short narrative explains fluctuations and trends in each hydrograph. (Woodard-USGS)

Trend of heat flow in france: relation with deep structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasseur, Guy; Nouri, Yamina; Groupe Fluxchaf

1980-06-01

The trend of heat flow over France is discussed using both direct measurements at equilibrium in boreholes and file data. The two types of data are found to be in agreement. They exhibit high heat flow values over the Massif Central and the Vosges. An E-W cross section across the Massif Central allows us to observe the relationship between the high heat flow values, the thinning of the crust and the uprising of the asthenosphere deduced from seismic and gravity measurements. High heat flow values could be explained using a cinematic model where upward convection occurs in the upper mantle for a period of 40 m.y. with a vertical velocity reaching 5 mm/y.

Factors associated with trends in infant and child mortality in developing countries during the 1990s.

PubMed Central

Rutstein, S. O.

2000-01-01

The 1990s have seen a remarkable decrease in mortality among infants and children in most developing countries. In some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, these declines in mortality among children have slowed and are now increasing again. Internationally comparable data derived from survey programmes, such as the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) programme, are available both to document the changes that have occurred in mortality and to provide insight into some of the factors that may explain these trends in mortality. The factors found in repeated DHS programmes that explain these trends fall into five categories: fertility behaviour; nutritional status, breastfeeding, and infant feeding; the use of health services by mothers and for children; environmental health conditions; and socioeconomic status. Both simple analyses and multivariate analyses of changes in these factors between surveys indicate that all factors affected the mortality trends. However, to explain trends in mortality, the variables themselves had to have changed over time. During the 1990s fertility behaviour, breastfeeding, and infant feeding have changed less than other factors and so would seem to have played a smaller role in mortality trends. This study confirms that trends in mortality during the 1990s were related to more than just a handful of variables. It would, therefore, be a mistake to concentrate policy actions on one or a few of these while forsaking others. Countries with the largest decreases in mortality have had substantial improvements in most of the factors that might be used to explain these changes. In some countries mortality has risen. In part these increases can be explained by the factors included in this study, such as deterioration in seeking medical care for children with fever. Other factors that were not measured, such as the increasing resistance of malaria to drug treatment and the increased prevalence of parental HIV/AIDS, may be contributing to the increase noted. PMID:11100620

Trends in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in the Great Lakes atmosphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ping Sun; Pierrette Blanchard; Kenneth A. Brice

2006-10-15

Atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs) concentrations were measured in both the vapor and particle phases at seven sites near the Great Lakes as a part of the Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network. Lower molecular weight PAHs, including fluorene, phenanthrene, fluoranthrene, and pyrene, were dominant in the vapor phase, and higher molecular weight PAHs, including chrysene, benzo(a)pyrene, and coronene, were dominant in the particle phase. The highest PAH concentrations in both the vapor and particle phases were observed in Chicago followed by the semiurban site at Sturgeon Point, NY. The major sources of PAHs in and around Chicago are vehicle emissions, coalmore » and natural gas combustion, and coke production. The spatial difference of PAH concentrations can be explained by the local population density. Long-term decreasing trends of most PAH concentrations were observed in both the vapor and particle phases at Chicago, with half-lives ranging from 3-10 years in the vapor phase and 5-15 years in the particle phase. At Eagle Harbor, Sleeping Bear Dunes, and Sturgeon Point, total PAH concentrations in the vapor phase showed significant, but slow, long-term decreasing trends. At the Sturgeon Point site, which was impacted by a nearby city, particle-phase PAH concentrations also declined. However, most particle-phase PAH concentrations did not show significant long-term decreasing trends at the remote sites. Seasonal trends were also observed for particle-phase PAH concentrations, which were higher in the winter and lower in the summer. 36 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.« less

Low-high junction theory applied to solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Godlewski, M. P.; Baraona, C. R.; Brandhorst, H. W., Jr.

1973-01-01

Recent use of alloying techniques for rear contact formation has yielded a new kind of silicon solar cell, the back surface field (BSF) cell, with abnormally high open circuit voltage and improved radiation resistance. Several analytical models for open circuit voltage based on the reverse saturation current are formulated to explain these observations. The zero SRV case of the conventional cell model, the drift field model, and the low-high junction (LHJ) model can predict the experimental trends. The LHJ model applies the theory of the low-high junction and is considered to reflect a more realistic view of cell fabrication. This model can predict the experimental trends observed for BSF cells. Detailed descriptions and derivations for the models are included. The correspondences between them are discussed. This modeling suggests that the meaning of minority carrier diffusion length measured in BSF cells be reexamined.

Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qigang; Cheng, Luyao; Chan, Duo; Yao, Yonghong; Hu, Haibo; Yao, Ying

2016-03-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heat waves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH midlatitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH midlatitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

Effects of sea maturity on satellite altimeter measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glazman, Roman E.; Pilorz, Stuart H.

1990-01-01

For equilibrium and near-equilibrium sea states, the wave slope variance is a function of wind speed U and of the sea maturity. The influence of both factors on the altimeter measurements of wind speed, wave height, and radar cross section is studied experimentally on the basis of 1 year's worth of Geosat altimeter observations colocated with in situ wind and wave measurements by 20 NOAA buoys. Errors and biases in altimeter wind speed and wave height measurements are investigted. A geophysically significant error trend correlated with the sea maturity is found in wind-speed measurements. This trend is explained by examining the effect of the generalized wind fetch on the curves of the observed dependence. It is concluded that unambiguous measurements of wind speed by altimeter, in a wide range of sea states, are impossible without accounting for the actual degree of wave development.

Conceptual framework and trend analysis of water-level responses to hydrologic stresses, Pahute Mesa–Oasis Valley groundwater basin, Nevada, 1966-2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, Tracie R.; Fenelon, Joseph M.

2018-05-31

This report identifies water-level trends in wells and provides a conceptual framework that explains the hydrologic stresses and factors causing the trends in the Pahute Mesa–Oasis Valley (PMOV) groundwater basin, southern Nevada. Water levels in 79 wells were analyzed for trends between 1966 and 2016. The magnitude and duration of water-level responses to hydrologic stresses were analyzed graphically, statistically, and with water-level models.The conceptual framework consists of multiple stress-specific conceptual models to explain water-level responses to the following hydrologic stresses: recharge, evapotranspiration, pumping, nuclear testing, and wellbore equilibration. Dominant hydrologic stresses affecting water-level trends in each well were used to categorize trends as nonstatic, transient, or steady state.The conceptual framework of water-level responses to hydrologic stresses and trend analyses provide a comprehensive understanding of the PMOV basin and vicinity. The trend analysis links water-level fluctuations in wells to hydrologic stresses and potential factors causing the trends. Transient and steady-state trend categorizations can be used to determine the appropriate water-level data for groundwater studies.

Anomalous aging of EPDM and FEPM under combined thermo-oxidative and hydrolytic conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Redline, Erica M.; Celina, Mathias C.; Harris, Charles E.

Previous observation of EPDM and FEPM materials aged in thermo-oxidative and thermo-oxidative plus hydrolytic environments revealed an unusual trend: the degradation and disintegration of these polymers in the former case but the ability to maintain mechanical performance and shape in the latter. No abnormalities were observed in the chemical (oxidation rates, FTIR spectra, solvent uptake, gel content, and weight loss vs. temperature) or physical (modulus profile) measurements that could explain these empirically observed aging differences. A second controlled aging test was conducted to verify this trend using only EPDM. Once again it was shown that thermo-oxidative conditions appear to causemore » more degradative damage (enhanced embrittlement) than observed for the combined thermo-oxidative plus hydrolytic environments. From these data we conclude that water may favorably interfere with normal thermo-oxidative degradation processes. This interference may occur via some combination of chemical and physical property changes in the presence of steam such as: oxidation rate and O 2 permeability changes, additional sensitivity to hydrolytic damage, and/or mechanistic changes in relation to pH and hydroperoxide formation.« less

Anomalous aging of EPDM and FEPM under combined thermo-oxidative and hydrolytic conditions

DOE PAGES

Redline, Erica M.; Celina, Mathias C.; Harris, Charles E.; ...

2017-09-15

Previous observation of EPDM and FEPM materials aged in thermo-oxidative and thermo-oxidative plus hydrolytic environments revealed an unusual trend: the degradation and disintegration of these polymers in the former case but the ability to maintain mechanical performance and shape in the latter. No abnormalities were observed in the chemical (oxidation rates, FTIR spectra, solvent uptake, gel content, and weight loss vs. temperature) or physical (modulus profile) measurements that could explain these empirically observed aging differences. A second controlled aging test was conducted to verify this trend using only EPDM. Once again it was shown that thermo-oxidative conditions appear to causemore » more degradative damage (enhanced embrittlement) than observed for the combined thermo-oxidative plus hydrolytic environments. From these data we conclude that water may favorably interfere with normal thermo-oxidative degradation processes. This interference may occur via some combination of chemical and physical property changes in the presence of steam such as: oxidation rate and O 2 permeability changes, additional sensitivity to hydrolytic damage, and/or mechanistic changes in relation to pH and hydroperoxide formation.« less

A Global Model Simulation of Aerosol Effects of Surface Radiation Budget- Toward Understanding of the "Dimming to Brightening" Transition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas; Bian, Huisheng; Yu, Hongbin

2008-01-01

We present a global model study on the role aerosols play in the change of solar radiation at Earth's surface that transitioned from a decreasing (dimming) trend to an increasing (brightening) trend. Our primary objective is to understand the relationship between the long-term trends of aerosol emission, atmospheric burden, and surface solar radiation. More specifically, we use the recently compiled comprehensive global emission datasets of aerosols and precursors from fuel combustion, biomass burning, volcanic eruptions and other sources from 1980 to 2006 to simulate long-term variations of aerosol distributions and optical properties, and then calculate the multi-decadal changes of short-wave radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere by coupling the GOCART model simulated aerosols with the Goddard radiative transfer model. The model results are compared with long-term observational records from ground-based networks and satellite data. We will address the following critical questions: To what extent can the observed surface solar radiation trends, known as the transition from dimming to brightening, be explained by the changes of anthropogenic and natural aerosol loading on global and regional scales? What are the relative contributions of local emission and long-range transport to the surface radiation budget and how do these contributions change with time?

Reconstruction of March-June precipitation from tree rings in central Liaoning, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yanchao; Liu, Yu

2017-11-01

A dendrochronological profile was generated from Chinese pines ( Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) in the Qianshan Mountains in northeastern China. Based on correlation analyses, the pattern of precipitation from March to June ( P 36 ) was reconstructed using a simple linear model, which explained 42.7% of the total variance in observed precipitation from 1951 to 2012. The reconstructed P 36 series revealed a consistently increasing trend in precipitation during the twentieth century in the Qianshan Mountains. The reconstructed data showed trends that were similar to those in the variation in trends for March-June precipitation observed at the Shenyang station, the reconstructed January-May precipitation trends in Shenyang City, and the reconstructed average June-September relative humidity for Yiwulü Mountain. The reconstructed data also showed good agreement with the droughts reported in historical documents and recorded by meteorological stations in Liaoning. Spatial correlation analyses show that the reconstructed data reflect the variability in precipitation that occurs over much of northeastern China. In addition, our reconstruction showed a significant periodicity. The significant correlations between the reconstructed P 36 and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and sunspot numbers indicate that precipitation variability in the Qianshan Mountain region is probably driven by extensive atmosphere-sea interactions and solar activities.

Suprathermal Electrons in the Solar Corona: Can Nonlocal Transport Explain Heliospheric Charge States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cranmer, Steven R.

2014-08-01

There have been several ideas proposed to explain how the Sun's corona is heated and how the solar wind is accelerated. Some models assume that open magnetic field lines are heated by Alfvén waves driven by photospheric motions and dissipated after undergoing a turbulent cascade. Other models posit that much of the solar wind's mass and energy is injected via magnetic reconnection from closed coronal loops. The latter idea is motivated by observations of reconnecting jets and also by similarities of ion composition between closed loops and the slow wind. Wave/turbulence models have also succeeded in reproducing observed trends in ion composition signatures versus wind speed. However, the absolute values of the charge-state ratios predicted by those models tended to be too low in comparison with observations. This Letter refines these predictions by taking better account of weak Coulomb collisions for coronal electrons, whose thermodynamic properties determine the ion charge states in the low corona. A perturbative description of nonlocal electron transport is applied to an existing set of wave/turbulence models. The resulting electron velocity distributions in the low corona exhibit mild suprathermal tails characterized by "kappa" exponents between 10 and 25. These suprathermal electrons are found to be sufficiently energetic to enhance the charge states of oxygen ions, while maintaining the same relative trend with wind speed that was found when the distribution was assumed to be Maxwellian. The updated wave/turbulence models are in excellent agreement with solar wind ion composition measurements.

Sales of veterinary antibacterial agents in nine European countries during 2005-09: trends and patterns.

PubMed

Grave, Kari; Greko, Christina; Kvaale, Mari K; Torren-Edo, Jordi; Mackay, David; Muller, Arno; Moulin, Gerard

2012-12-01

To identify trends and patterns of sales of veterinary antimicrobial agents in nine European countries during 2005-09 in order to document the situation. Existing sales data, in tonnes of active ingredients, of veterinary antimicrobial agents by class were collected from nine European countries in a standardized manner for the years 2005-09 (one country for 2006-09). A population correction unit (PCU) is introduced as a proxy for the animal population potentially treated with antimicrobial agents. The sales data are expressed as mg of active substance/PCU. Data coverage was reported to be 98%-100% for the nine countries. Overall, sales of veterinary antimicrobials agents, in mg/PCU, declined during the reporting period in the nine countries. Substantial differences in the sales patterns and in the magnitude of sales of veterinary antimicrobial agents, expressed as mg/PCU, between the nine countries are observed. The major classes sold were penicillins, sulphonamides and tetracyclines. The sales accounted for by the various veterinary antimicrobial agents have changed substantially for most countries. An increase in the sales of third- and fourth-generation cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones were observed for the majority of the countries. Through re-analysis of existing data by application of a harmonized approach, an overall picture of the trends in the sales of veterinary antimicrobial agents in the nine countries was obtained. Notable differences in trends in sales between the countries were observed. Further studies, preferably including data by animal species, are needed to understand the factors that explain these observations.

Oceanography. Centennial changes in North Pacific anoxia linked to tropical trade winds.

PubMed

Deutsch, Curtis; Berelson, William; Thunell, Robert; Weber, Thomas; Tems, Caitlin; McManus, James; Crusius, John; Ito, Taka; Baumgartner, Timothy; Ferreira, Vicente; Mey, Jacob; van Geen, Alexander

2014-08-08

Climate warming is expected to reduce oxygen (O2) supply to the ocean and expand its oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). We reconstructed variations in the extent of North Pacific anoxia since 1850 using a geochemical proxy for denitrification (δ(15)N) from multiple sediment cores. Increasing δ(15)N since ~1990 records an expansion of anoxia, consistent with observed O2 trends. However, this was preceded by a longer declining δ(15)N trend that implies that the anoxic zone was shrinking for most of the 20th century. Both periods can be explained by changes in winds over the tropical Pacific that drive upwelling, biological productivity, and O2 demand within the OMZ. If equatorial Pacific winds resume their predicted weakening trend, the ocean's largest anoxic zone will contract despite a global O2 decline. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

2017-09-01

Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Nonproductive events in ring-closing metathesis using ruthenium catalysts.

PubMed

Stewart, Ian C; Keitz, Benjamin K; Kuhn, Kevin M; Thomas, Renee M; Grubbs, Robert H

2010-06-30

The relative TONs of productive and nonproductive metathesis reactions of diethyl diallylmalonate are compared for eight different ruthenium-based catalysts. Nonproductive cross metathesis is proposed to involve a chain-carrying ruthenium methylidene. A second more-challenging substrate (dimethyl allylmethylallylmalonate) that forms a trisubstituted olefin product is used to further delineate the effect of catalyst structure on the relative efficiencies of these processes. A steric model is proposed to explain the observed trends.

[Divergent Trends in Suicide Mortality in Navarra and Spain: 2000-2015].

PubMed

Delfrade, Josu; Sayón-Orea, Carmen; Teijeira-Álvarez, Rafael; Floristán-Floristán, Yugo; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi

2017-05-03

The aim of this study was to know the suicide mortality rates in Navarra and Spain and to compare their time trends during the period 2000-2015. Suicide data were obtained from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística [INE], Spain’s National Statistics Institute. During all the period, the coding of cause of death in Navarra was carried out using data from forensic autopsies, while in some Spanish regions this process started after 2010. A Joinpoint time series regression model was used to assess the time trend and estimate the annual percent change [APC] of the rates by sex and 4 age groups. Suicide mortality in Spain showed a significant downward trend in the overall rate between 2000-2011 [APC of -1.93% in males and -2.19% in females] followed by a significant increase in 2012-2015 [APC: 3.65% in men and 7.60% in women]. No inflection points were observed in men aged 25-44 [APC:1.26%], 45-64 [APC: 1.63%], and women over 65 years [APC:-2.18%]. In Navarra, global rates in men showed a non significant decrease [APC:-1.56%] and a significant decrease in the group of men between 25-44 years [APC:-3.19%]. Among women we observed a non significant increase [APC: 0.74%]. The rise in overall suicide rates observed in Spain since 2011, that was not observed in Navarre, could be influenced by the improvements in coding methods in several Spanish regions. However, this could not explain the decrease observed during the all period in men aged 25-44, that was even larger in Navarra.

Reconciling top-down and bottom-up estimates of CO2 fluxes to understand increased seasonal exchange in Northern ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastos, A.; Ciais, P.; Zhu, D.; Maignan, F.; Wang, X.; Chevallier, F.; Ballantyne, A.

2017-12-01

Continuous atmospheric CO2 monitoring data indicate enhanced seasonal exchange in the high-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (above 40oN), mainly attributed to terrestrial ecosystems. Whether this enhancement is mostly explained by increased vegetation growth due to CO2 fertilization and warming, or by changes in land-use and land-management practices is still an unsettled question (e.g. Forkel et al. (2016) and Zeng et al. (2013)). Previous studies have shown that models present variable performance in capturing trends in CO2 amplitude at CO2 monitoring sites, and that Earth System Models present large spread in their estimates of such trends. Here we integrate data of atmospheric CO2 exchange in terrestrial ecosystems by a set of atmospheric CO2 inversions and a range of land-surface models to evaluate the ability of models to reproduce changes in CO2 seasonal exchange within the observation uncertainty. We then analyze the factors that explain the model spread to understand if the trend in seasonal CO2 amplitude may indeed be a useful metric to constrain future changes in terrestrial photosynthesis (Wenzel et al., 2016). We then compare model simulations with satellite and other observation-based datasets of vegetation productivity, biomass stocks and land-cover change to test the contribution of natural (CO2 fertilization, climate) and human (land-use change) factors to the increasing trend in seasonal CO2 amplitude. Forkel, Matthias, et al. "Enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange caused by amplified plant productivity in northern ecosystems." Science 351.6274 (2016): 696-699. Wenzel, Sabrina, et al. "Projected land photosynthesis constrained by changes in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2." Nature 538, no. 7626 (2016): 499-501.Zeng, Ning, et al. "Agricultural Green Revolution as a driver of increasing atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude." Nature 515.7527 (2014): 394.

A bottom-up perspective on ecosystem change in Mesozoic oceans

PubMed Central

Follows, Michael J.

2016-01-01

Mesozoic and Early Cenozoic marine animals across multiple phyla record secular trends in morphology, environmental distribution, and inferred behaviour that are parsimoniously explained in terms of increased selection pressure from durophagous predators. Another systemic change in Mesozoic marine ecosystems, less widely appreciated than the first, may help to explain the observed animal record. Fossils, biomarker molecules, and molecular clocks indicate a major shift in phytoplankton composition, as mixotrophic dinoflagellates, coccolithophorids and, later, diatoms radiated across shelves. Models originally developed to probe the ecology and biogeography of modern phytoplankton enable us to evaluate the ecosystem consequences of these phytoplankton radiations. In particular, our models suggest that the radiation of mixotrophic dinoflagellates and the subsequent diversification of marine diatoms would have accelerated the transfer of primary production upward into larger size classes and higher trophic levels. Thus, phytoplankton evolution provides a mechanism capable of facilitating the observed evolutionary shift in Mesozoic marine animals. PMID:27798303

A bottom-up perspective on ecosystem change in Mesozoic oceans.

PubMed

Knoll, Andrew H; Follows, Michael J

2016-10-26

Mesozoic and Early Cenozoic marine animals across multiple phyla record secular trends in morphology, environmental distribution, and inferred behaviour that are parsimoniously explained in terms of increased selection pressure from durophagous predators. Another systemic change in Mesozoic marine ecosystems, less widely appreciated than the first, may help to explain the observed animal record. Fossils, biomarker molecules, and molecular clocks indicate a major shift in phytoplankton composition, as mixotrophic dinoflagellates, coccolithophorids and, later, diatoms radiated across shelves. Models originally developed to probe the ecology and biogeography of modern phytoplankton enable us to evaluate the ecosystem consequences of these phytoplankton radiations. In particular, our models suggest that the radiation of mixotrophic dinoflagellates and the subsequent diversification of marine diatoms would have accelerated the transfer of primary production upward into larger size classes and higher trophic levels. Thus, phytoplankton evolution provides a mechanism capable of facilitating the observed evolutionary shift in Mesozoic marine animals. © 2016 The Authors.

Gradual upturn underway in paper, paperboard and woodpulp markets

Treesearch

Peter J. Ince; Bernard Lombard; Eduard Akim

2002-01-01

This chapter explains recent trends in European, North American and Russian paper and paperboard markets, along with trends in woodpulp and fibre markets. These market trends related to pulpwood use trends which are discussed in preceding chapters in the context of overall trends in wood raw material use. This chapter also reports UNECE/FAO statistics for pulp, paper...

Analysis of 1970-1995 Trends in Tropospheric Ozone at Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes with the GEOS-CHEM Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fusco, Andrew C.; Logan, Jennifer A.

2004-01-01

I ] The causes of trends in tropospheric ozone at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes from 1970 to 1995 are investigated with the GEOS-CHEM model, a global three-dimensional model of the troposphere driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). This model is used to investigate the sensitivity of tropospheric ozone with respect to (1) changes in the anthropogenic emission of nitrogen oxides and nonmethane hydrocarbons, (2) increases in methane concentrations, (3) variations in the stratospheric source of ozone, (4) changes in solar radiation resulting from stratospheric ozone depletion, and ( 5 ) increases in tropospheric temperatures. Model results indicate that local increases in NO, emissions have caused most of the increases seen in lower tropospheric ozone over Europe and Japan. Increases in methane are responsible for roughly one fifth of the anthropogenically induced increase in tropospheric ozone at northern midlatitudes. However, changes in ozone precursors do not adequately explain either the spatial differences in observed ozone trends across midlatitudes or the observed decreases in ozone over Canada throughout the troposphere. We argue that ozone depletion in the lowermost stratosphere is likely to have reduced the stratospheric source by as much as 30% from the early 1970s to the mid 1990s. Model simulations that account for such a reduction along with reported changes in anthropogenic emissions show steep declines of ozone in the upper troposphere and variable increases in the lower troposphere that are more consistent with observations. Differential temperature trends in summer between North America and Europe may account for at least some of the remaining spatial variation in tropospheric ozone trends. Increases in ultraviolet (UV) radiation due to stratospheric ozone depletion do not appear to significantly reduce tropospheric ozone, except at midlatitudes in the Southern Hemisphere following the breakup of the ozone hole.

Regional Changes in Earths Color and Texture as Observed From Space Over a 15-Year Period

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhao, Guangyu; Di Girolamo, Larry; Diner, David J.; Bruegge, Carol J.; Mueller, Kevin J.; Wu, Dong L.

2016-01-01

Earth-observing satellites provide global observations of many geophysical variables. As these variables are derived from measured radiances, the underlying radiance data are the most reliable sources of information for change detection. Here, we identify statistically significant trends in the color and spatial texture of the Earth as viewed from multiple directions from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), which has been sampling the angular distribution of scattered sunlight since 2000. Globally, our results show that the Earth has been appearing relatively bluer (up to 1.6 % per decade from both nadir and oblique views) and smoother (up to 1.5 % per decade only from oblique views) over the past 15 years. The magnitude of the global blueing trends is comparable to that of uncertainties in radiometric calibration stability. Regional shifts in color and texture, which are significantly larger than global means, are observed, particularly over polar regions, along the boundaries of the subtropical highs, the tropical western Pacific, Southwestern Asia, and Australia. We demonstrate that the large regional trends cannot be explained either by uncertainties in radiometric calibration or variability in total or spectral solar irradiance; hence, they reflect changes internal to the Earths climate system. The 15-year-mean true color composites and texture images of the Earth at both nadir and oblique views are also presented for the first time.

Enrichment of Zinc in Galactic Chemodynamical Evolution Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirai, Yutaka; Saitoh, Takayuki R.; Ishimaru, Yuhri; Wanajo, Shinya

2018-03-01

The heaviest iron-peak element Zinc (Zn) has been used as an important tracer of cosmic chemical evolution. Spectroscopic observations of the metal-poor stars in Local Group galaxies show an increasing trend of [Zn/Fe] ratios toward lower metallicity. However, the enrichment of Zn in galaxies is not well understood due to poor knowledge of astrophysical sites of Zn, as well as metal mixing in galaxies. Here we show possible explanations for the observed trend by taking into account electron-capture supernovae (ECSNe) as one of the sources of Zn in our chemodynamical simulations of dwarf galaxies. We find that the ejecta from ECSNe contribute to stars with [Zn/Fe] ≳ 0.5. We also find that scatters of [Zn/Fe] in higher metallicities originate from the ejecta of type Ia supernovae. On the other hand, it appears difficult to explain the observed trends if we do not consider ECSNe as a source of Zn. These results come from an inhomogeneous spatial metallicity distribution due to the inefficiency of the metal mixing. We find that the optimal value of the scaling factor for the metal diffusion coefficient is ∼0.01 in the shear-based metal mixing model in smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations. These results suggest that ECSNe could be one of the contributors of the enrichment of Zn in galaxies.

Impact of aerosols and clouds on decadal trends in all-sky solar radiation over the Netherlands (1966-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boers, Reinout; Brandsma, Theo; Pier Siebesma, A.

2017-07-01

A 50-year hourly data set of global shortwave radiation, cloudiness and visibility over the Netherlands was used to quantify the contribution of aerosols and clouds to the trend in yearly-averaged all-sky radiation (1.81 ± 1.07 W m-2 decade-1). Yearly-averaged clear-sky and cloud-base radiation data show large year-to-year fluctuations caused by yearly changes in the occurrence of clear and cloudy periods and cannot be used for trend analysis. Therefore, proxy clear-sky and cloud-base radiations were computed. In a proxy analysis hourly radiation data falling within a fractional cloudiness value are fitted by monotonic increasing functions of solar zenith angle and summed over all zenith angles occurring in a single year to produce an average. Stable trends can then be computed from the proxy radiation data. A functional expression is derived whereby the trend in proxy all-sky radiation is a linear combination of trends in fractional cloudiness, proxy clear-sky radiation and proxy cloud-base radiation. Trends (per decade) in fractional cloudiness, proxy clear-sky and proxy cloud-base radiation were, respectively, 0.0097 ± 0.0062, 2.78 ± 0.50 and 3.43 ± 1.17 W m-2. To add up to the all-sky radiation the three trends have weight factors, namely the difference between the mean cloud-base and clear-sky radiation, the clear-sky fraction and the fractional cloudiness, respectively. Our analysis clearly demonstrates that all three components contribute significantly to the observed trend in all-sky radiation. Radiative transfer calculations using the aerosol optical thickness derived from visibility observations indicate that aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI) is a strong candidate to explain the upward trend in the clear-sky radiation. Aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) may have some impact on cloud-base radiation, but it is suggested that decadal changes in cloud thickness and synoptic-scale changes in cloud amount also play an important role.

Absolute plate motions relative to deep mantle plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shimin; Yu, Hongzheng; Zhang, Qiong; Zhao, Yonghong

2018-05-01

Advances in whole waveform seismic tomography have revealed the presence of broad mantle plumes rooted at the base of the Earth's mantle beneath major hotspots. Hotspot tracks associated with these deep mantle plumes provide ideal constraints for inverting absolute plate motions as well as testing the fixed hotspot hypothesis. In this paper, 27 observed hotspot trends associated with 24 deep mantle plumes are used together with the MORVEL model for relative plate motions to determine an absolute plate motion model, in terms of a maximum likelihood optimization for angular data fitting, combined with an outlier data detection procedure based on statistical tests. The obtained T25M model fits 25 observed trends of globally distributed hotspot tracks to the statistically required level, while the other two hotspot trend data (Comores on Somalia and Iceland on Eurasia) are identified as outliers, which are significantly incompatible with other data. For most hotspots with rate data available, T25M predicts plate velocities significantly lower than the observed rates of hotspot volcanic migration, which cannot be fully explained by biased errors in observed rate data. Instead, the apparent hotspot motions derived by subtracting the observed hotspot migration velocities from the T25M plate velocities exhibit a combined pattern of being opposite to plate velocities and moving towards mid-ocean ridges. The newly estimated net rotation of the lithosphere is statistically compatible with three recent estimates, but differs significantly from 30 of 33 prior estimates.

Trends in upper gastrointestinal diagnosis over four decades in Lusaka, Zambia: a retrospective analysis of endoscopic findings.

PubMed

Kayamba, Violet; Sinkala, Edford; Mwanamakondo, Stayner; Soko, Rose; Kawimbe, Boniface; Amadi, Beatrice; Zulu, Isaac; Nzaisenga, Jean-Baptiste; Banda, Themba; Mumbwe, Chipasha; Phiri, Evans; Munkonge, Philip; Kelly, Paul

2015-10-06

There a shortage of robust information about profiles of gastrointestinal disease in sub-Saharan Africa. The endoscopy unit of the University Teaching Hospital in Lusaka has been running without interruption since 1977 and this 38-year record is largely intact. We report an analysis of endoscopic findings over this period. Written endoscopy records from 29th September 1977 to 16th December 2014 were recovered, computerised, coded by two experienced endoscopists and analysed. Temporal trends were analysed using tables, graphs, and unconditional logistic regression, with age, sex of patient, decade, and endoscopist as independent variables to adjust for inter-observer variation. Sixteen thousand nine hundred fifty-three records were identified and analysed. Diagnosis of gastric ulcer rose by 22 %, and that of duodenal ulcer fell by 14 % per decade. Endoscopically diagnosed oesophageal cancer increased by 32 % per decade, but gastric cancer rose only in patients under 60 years of age (21 % per decade). Oesophageal varices were the commonest finding in patients presenting with haematemesis, increasing by 14 % per decade in that patient group. Two HIV-related diagnoses, oesophageal candidiasis and Kaposi's sarcoma, rose from almost zero to very high levels in the 1990s but fell substantially after 2005 when anti-retroviral therapy became widely available. This useful dataset suggests that there are important trends in some endoscopic findings over four decades. These trends are not explained by inter-observer variation. Reasons for the divergent trends in incidence of peptic ulceration and apparent trends in diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal cancers merit further exploration.

HIV As Trojan Exosome: Immunological Paradox Explained?

PubMed

Hildreth, James E K

2017-01-01

The HIV pandemic is still a major global challenge, despite the widespread availability of antiretroviral drugs. An effective vaccine would be the ideal approach to bringing the pandemic to an end. However, developing an effective HIV vaccine has proven to be an elusive goal. Three major human HIV vaccine trials revealed a strong trend toward greater risk of infection among vaccine recipients versus controls. A similar observation was made in a macaque SIV vaccine study. The mechanism explaining this phenomenon is not known. Here, a model is presented that may explain the troubling results of vaccine studies and an immunological paradox of HIV pathogenesis: preferential infection of HIV-specific T cells. The central hypothesis of this perspective is that as "Trojan exosomes" HIV particles can directly activate HIV-specific T cells enhancing their susceptibility to infection. Understanding the biology of HIV as an exosome may provide insights that enable novel approaches to vaccine development.

Regional assessment of trends in vegetation change dynamics using principal component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osunmadewa, B. A.; Csaplovics, E.; R. A., Majdaldin; Adeofun, C. O.; Aralova, D.

2016-10-01

Vegetation forms the basis for the existence of animal and human. Due to changes in climate and human perturbation, most of the natural vegetation of the world has undergone some form of transformation both in composition and structure. Increased anthropogenic activities over the last decades had pose serious threat on the natural vegetation in Nigeria, many vegetated areas are either transformed to other land use such as deforestation for agricultural purpose or completely lost due to indiscriminate removal of trees for charcoal, fuelwood and timber production. This study therefore aims at examining the rate of change in vegetation cover, the degree of change and the application of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in the dry sub-humid region of Nigeria using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data spanning from 1983-2011. The method used for the analysis is the T-mode orientation approach also known as standardized PCA, while trends are examined using ordinary least square, median trend (Theil-Sen) and monotonic trend. The result of the trend analysis shows both positive and negative trend in vegetation change dynamics over the 29 years period examined. Five components were used for the Principal Component Analysis. The results of the first component explains about 98 % of the total variance of the vegetation (NDVI) while components 2-5 have lower variance percentage (< 1%). Two ancillary land use land cover data of 2000 and 2009 from European Space Agency (ESA) were used to further explain changes observed in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. The result of the land use data shows changes in land use pattern which can be attributed to anthropogenic activities such as cutting of trees for charcoal production, fuelwood and agricultural practices. The result of this study shows the ability of remote sensing data for monitoring vegetation change in the dry-sub humid region of Nigeria.

Long-term decrease in phosphate concentrations in the surface layer of the southern Japan Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kodama, Taketoshi; Igeta, Yosuke; Kuga, Mizuki; Abe, Shoko

2016-10-01

To identify possible causes for the long-term trends in nutrient concentrations in the southern Japan Sea (JS), we studied nutrient concentrations that were obtained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Our evaluation shows that phosphate concentrations declined in the surface layers in summer (0-20 and 21-50 m depth) and winter (0-20, 21-50, and 51-100 m depth) over the last 40 years, while no significant linear trend was observed for nitrate concentrations. The declining trend in the phosphate concentration was quantified as 1.8-3.3 nM yr-1. The increase in atmospheric nutrient deposition to the JS could not explain the decline in phosphate concentration. In addition, the mixed-layer depth during winter did not demonstrate any significant trend, and an increase in phosphate concentrations was not observed in any layers; therefore, the decrease in nutrient supply from deep JS water was not considered a major possible cause for the decline in the phosphate concentration. In contrast, the phosphate concentration in the surface of the southern JS during winter showed a significant positive correlation with the concentration in the 21-50 m depth layer of the saline East China Sea (ECS) water in the preceding summer, and the surface water of the southern JS was almost entirely replaced by water originating from the ECS during May-October. Therefore, it is concluded that the declining trend in the phosphate concentrations in the southern JS is caused by horizontal advection of ECS water.

Determinants of the Pace of Global Innovation in Energy Technologies

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-14

quality (see Figures S1 and S2 in File S1), a comprehensive patent database is a powerful tool for investigating the determinants of innovative...model in order to avoid overfitting the data and to maximize predictive power . We develop a model that explains the observed trends in energy...patents. (A.) World map of cumulative patents in photovoltaics (solar). Japan is the leading nation in terms of patent numbers, followed by the US and China

Antarctic Ice Mass Balance from GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boening, C.; Firing, Y. L.; Wiese, D. N.; Watkins, M. M.; Schlegel, N.; Larour, E. Y.

2014-12-01

The Antarctic ice mass balance and rates of change of ice mass over the past decade are analyzed based on observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, in the form of JPL RL05M mascon solutions. Surface mass balance (SMB) fluxes from ERA-Interim and other atmospheric reanalyses successfully account for the seasonal GRACE-measured mass variability, and explain 70-80% of the continent-wide mass variance at interannual time scales. Trends in the residual (GRACE mass - SMB accumulation) mass time series in different Antarctic drainage basins are consistent with time-mean ice discharge rates based on radar-derived ice velocities and thicknesses. GRACE also resolves accelerations in regional ice mass change rates, including increasing rates of mass gain in East Antarctica and accelerating ice mass loss in West Antarctica. The observed East Antarctic mass gain is only partially explained by anomalously large SMB events in the second half of the record, potentially implying that ice discharge rates are also decreasing in this region. Most of the increasing mass loss rate in West Antarctica, meanwhile, is explained by decreasing SMB (principally precipitation) over this time period, part of the characteristic decadal variability in regional SMB. The residual acceleration of 2+/-1 Gt/yr, which is concentrated in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) basins, represents the contribution from increasing ice discharge rates. An Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) run with constant ocean forcing and stationary grounding lines both underpredicts the largest trends in the ASE and produces negligible acceleration or interannual variability in discharge, highlighting the potential importance of ocean forcing for setting ice discharge rates at interannual to decadal time scales.

Trend analysis of tropical intraseasonal oscillations in the summer and winter during 1982-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Li; Zhao, Jiuwei; Li, Tim

2015-04-01

Based on the daily outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) data of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) from 1979 to 2012, we investigated the intensity changes of the 20-70-d boreal summer (June-September; JJAS) intra-seasonal oscillation (BSISO) and winter (December-February; DJF) intra-seasonal oscillation, also known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The results showed that the intensity of the BSISO has a significant intensifying trend during 1982-2009. On the other hand, little trend was found for boreal winter MJO during this period. The wavenumber-frequency analysis (Hayashi, 1982) was applied to separate ISO into westward propagation and eastward propagation parts. The significant intensified trend was observed over tropical Indian Ocean for the eastward-propagation BSISO. The weakened but not significant trend was observed over southern tropical Indian Ocean for the eastward-propagation MJO. To gain insight into the different ISO characteristics, the tendencies of sea surface temperature (SST) and the vertical shear of zonal wind were analyzed. The results showed that in both seasons from 1982 to 2009, the global SST trends were similar, and thus they could not be used to explain the BSISO upward trend. However, lower-tropospheric easterly shear in boreal summer over tropical Indian Ocean has a decreasing trend, while the easterly vertical shear over maritime continent was enhanced in winter. It is proposed that the reduced easterly vertical shear over tropical Indian Ocean favored the amplification of the eastward-propagating Kelvin wave, which led to the intensified eastward-propagating BSISO. The enhanced easterly vertical shear over maritime continent might be unfavorable to the amplification of the eastward-propagating Kelvin wave, but its impact was offset by the enhanced upward motion over maritime continent. As a result, there was little trend of the MJO in boreal winter. The hypothesis above was further verified by intermediate model results.

Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the Tibetan Plateau?

PubMed Central

Duan, Anmin; Xiao, Zhixiang

2015-01-01

The surface air temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau is determined based on historical observations from 1980 to 2013. In contrast to the cooling trend in the rest of China, and the global warming hiatus post-1990s, an accelerated warming trend has appeared over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998–2013 (0.25 °C decade−1), compared with that during 1980–1997 (0.21 °C decade−1). Further results indicate that, to some degree, such an accelerated warming trend might be attributable to cloud–radiation feedback. The increased nocturnal cloud over the northern Tibetan Plateau would warm the nighttime temperature via enhanced atmospheric back-radiation, while the decreased daytime cloud over the southern Tibetan Plateau would induce the daytime sunshine duration to increase, resulting in surface air temperature warming. Meanwhile, the in situ surface wind speed has recovered gradually since 1998, and thus the energy concentration cannot explain the accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau after the 1990s. It is suggested that cloud–radiation feedback may play an important role in modulating the recent accelerated warming trend over the Tibetan Plateau. PMID:26329678

Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2014-01-01

Polar sea ice is a key element of the climate system and has now been monitored through satellite observations for over three and a half decades. The satellite observations reveal considerable information about polar ice and its changes since the late 1970s, including a prominent downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage and a much lesser upward trend in Antarctic sea ice coverage, illustrative of the important fact that climate change entails spatial contrasts. The decreasing ice coverage in the Arctic corresponds well with contemporaneous Arctic warming and exhibits particularly large decreases in the summers of 2007 and 2012, influenced by both preconditioning and atmospheric conditions. The increasing ice coverage in the Antarctic is not as readily explained, but spatial differences in the Antarctic trends suggest a possible connection with atmospheric circulation changes that have perhaps been influenced by the Antarctic ozone hole. The changes in the polar ice covers and the issues surrounding those changes have many commonalities with broader climate changes and their surrounding issues, allowing the sea ice changes to be viewed in some important ways as a microcosm of global climate change.

Population demographics, survival, and reporduction: Alaska sea otter research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monson, Daniel H.; Bodkin, James L.; Doak, D.F.; Estes, James A.; Tinker, M.T.; Siniff, D.B.; Maldini, Daniela; Calkins, Donald; Atkinson, Shannon; Meehan, Rosa

2004-01-01

The fundamental force behind population change is the balance between age-specific survival and reproductive rates. Thus, understanding population demographics is crucial when trying to interpret trends in population change over time. For many species, demographic rates change as the population’s status (i.e., relative to prey resources) varies. Indices of body condition indicative of individual energy reserves can be a useful gauge of population status. Integrated studies designed to measure (1) population trends; (2) current population status; and (3) demographic rates will provide the most complete picture of the factors driving observed population changes. In particular, estimates of age specific survival and reproduction in conjunction with measures of population change can be integrated into population matrix models useful in explaining observed trends. We focus here on the methods used to measure demographic rates in sea otters, and note the importance of comparable methods between studies. Next, we review the current knowledge of the influence of population status on demographic parameters. We end with examples of the power of matrix modeling as a tool to integrate various types of demographic information for detecting otherwise hard to detect changes in demographic parameters.

Patterns and predictability in the intra-annual organic carbon variability across the boreal and hemiboreal landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hytteborn, Julia K.; Temnerud, Johan; Alexander, Richard B.; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Futter, Martyn N.; Fröberg, Mats; Dahné, Joel; Bishop, Kevin H.

2015-01-01

Factors affecting total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in 215 watercourses across Sweden were investigated using parameter parsimonious regression approaches to explain spatial and temporal variabilities of the TOC water quality responses. We systematically quantified the effects of discharge, seasonality, and long-term trend as factors controlling intra-annual (among year) and inter-annual (within year) variabilities of TOC by evaluating the spatial variability in model coefficients and catchment characteristics (e.g. land cover, retention time, soil type).Catchment area (0.18–47,000 km2) and land cover types (forests, agriculture and alpine terrain) are typical for the boreal and hemiboreal zones across Fennoscandia. Watercourses had at least 6 years of monthly water quality observations between 1990 and 2010. Statistically significant models (p < 0.05) describing variation of TOC in streamflow were identified in 209 of 215 watercourses with a mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index of 0.44. Increasing long-term trends were observed in 149 (70%) of the watercourses, and intra-annual variation in TOC far exceeded inter-annual variation. The average influences of the discharge and seasonality terms on intra-annual variations in daily TOC concentration were 1.4 and 1.3 mg l− 1 (13 and 12% of the mean annual TOC), respectively. The average increase in TOC was 0.17 mg l− 1 year− 1 (1.6% year− 1).Multivariate regression with over 90 different catchment characteristics explained 21% of the spatial variation in the linear trend coefficient, less than 20% of the variation in the discharge coefficient and 73% of the spatial variation in mean TOC. Specific discharge, water residence time, the variance of daily precipitation, and lake area, explained 45% of the spatial variation in the amplitude of the TOC seasonality.Because the main drivers of temporal variability in TOC are seasonality and discharge, first-order estimates of the influences of climatic variability and change on TOC concentration should be predictable if the studied catchments continue to respond similarly.

Decreasing Lower Tropospheric Ozone over the North China Plain Observed by IASI: Looking for Explanations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufour, G.; Eremenko, M.; Lachâtre, M.; Hauglustaine, D.; Fortems-Cheiney, A.; Cuesta, J.; Zhang, Y.; Cai, Z.; Liu, Y.; Xu, X.; Lin, W.; Cooper, O. R.

2017-12-01

China, and especially the North China Plain (NCP), is a highly polluted region. Emission reductions have been applied since about 10 years, starting with SO2 emissions in 2006 and with NOx emissions in 2010. Recent satellite observations series show a decrease of NO2 tropospheric columns since 2013 and attributed to the NOx emissions reduction. The question of the impact of such reduction on ozone is then arising. In this study, we use the capabilities of the IASI satellite instrument to retrieve 2 semi-independent columns of ozone in the lower (surface-6km asl) and the upper (6-12km) troposphere - the lower tropospheric (LT) column having a sensitivity maximum at 3-4 km - and we evaluate the variability and trend of LT ozone over the NCP for 2008-2016. Deseasonalized monthly timeseries show two distinct periods: a first period (2008-2012) with no significant trend (slope of the linear fit < -0.1 %/yr) and a second period (2013-2016) with a highly significant negative trend of -1.2 %/yr, leading to an overall trend of -0.77 %/yr for 2008-2016. A first temptation is to attribute this decrease to the NOx emissions changes. However, negative trends have not been reported from background surface measurements in this Chinese region. Furthermore recent work made within the framework of the TOAR initiative reveals discrepancies in the sign of the trends of tropospheric column ozone derived from infrared and ultraviolet satellite instruments. As yet there is no conclusive explanation for the discrepancy. We then investigate the IASI retrieval stability and robustness in terms of vertical sensitivity, interferences with large aerosol loading, and comparing with surface and ozonesonde measurements and the IASI instrument aboard the Metop-B satellite. One issue arises concerning the temporal sampling of IASI that may induce significant change in the trend derived from surface stations. We also explore the possible variables, other than emissions, which could explain the observed negative trends using both a statistical regression model and simulations from global and regional chemistry transport models.

Sensitivity to Factors Underlying the Hiatus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Cook, Benjamin I.

2015-01-01

Recent trends in global mean surface air temperature fall outside the 90 range predicted by models using the CMIP5 forcings and scenarios; this recent period of muted warming is dubbed the hiatus. The hiatus has attracted broad attention in both the popular press and the scientific literature, primarily because of its perceived implications for understanding long-term trends. Many hypotheses have been offered to explain the warming slowdown during the hiatus, and comprehensive studies of this period across multiple variables and spatial scales will likely improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms driving global temperature change and variability.We argue, however, that decadal temperature trends by themselves are unlikely to constrain future trajectories of global mean temperature and that the hiatus does not significantly revise our understanding of overall climate sensitivity. Instead, we demonstrate that, because of the poorly constrained nature of the hiatus, model-observation disagreements over this period may be resolvable via uncertainties in the observations, modeled internal variability, forcing estimates, or (more likely) some combination of all three factors. We define the hiatus interval as 1998-2012, endpoints judiciously chosen to minimize observed warming by including the large 1998 El Nio event and excluding 2014, an exceptionally warm year. Such choices are fundamentally subjective and cannot be considered random, so any probabilistic statements regarding the likelihood of this occurring need to be made carefully. Using this definition, the observed global temperature trend estimates from four datasets fall outside the 5-95 interval predicted by the CMIP5 models. Here we explore some of the plausible explanations for this discrepancy, and show that no unique explanation is likely to fully account for the hiatus.

Agricultural management explains historic changes in regional soil carbon stocks

PubMed Central

van Wesemael, Bas; Paustian, Keith; Meersmans, Jeroen; Goidts, Esther; Barancikova, Gabriela; Easter, Mark

2010-01-01

Agriculture is considered to be among the economic sectors having the greatest greenhouse gas mitigation potential, largely via soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, it remains a challenge to accurately quantify SOC stock changes at regional to national scales. SOC stock changes resulting from SOC inventory systems are only available for a few countries and the trends vary widely between studies. Process-based models can provide insight in the drivers of SOC changes, but accurate input data are currently not available at these spatial scales. Here we use measurements from a soil inventory dating from the 1960s and resampled in 2006 covering the major soil types and agricultural regions in Belgium together with region-specific land use and management data and a process-based model. The largest decreases in SOC stocks occurred in poorly drained grassland soils (clays and floodplain soils), consistent with drainage improvements since 1960. Large increases in SOC in well drained grassland soils appear to be a legacy effect of widespread conversion of cropland to grassland before 1960. SOC in cropland increased only in sandy lowland soils, driven by increasing manure additions. Modeled land use and management impacts accounted for more than 70% of the variation in observed SOC changes, and no bias could be demonstrated. There was no significant effect of climate trends since 1960 on observed SOC changes. SOC monitoring networks are being established in many countries. Our results demonstrate that detailed and long-term land management data are crucial to explain the observed SOC changes for such networks. PMID:20679194

Role of atmospheric oxidation in recent methane growth

PubMed Central

Rigby, Matthew; Montzka, Stephen A.; Prinn, Ronald G.; White, James W. C.; Young, Dickon; Lunt, Mark F.; Ganesan, Anita L.; Manning, Alistair J.; Simmonds, Peter G.; Salameh, Peter K.; Harth, Christina M.; Mühle, Jens; Weiss, Ray F.; Fraser, Paul J.; Steele, L. Paul; McCulloch, Archie; Park, Sunyoung

2017-01-01

The growth in global methane (CH4) concentration, which had been ongoing since the industrial revolution, stalled around the year 2000 before resuming globally in 2007. We evaluate the role of the hydroxyl radical (OH), the major CH4 sink, in the recent CH4 growth. We also examine the influence of systematic uncertainties in OH concentrations on CH4 emissions inferred from atmospheric observations. We use observations of 1,1,1-trichloroethane (CH3CCl3), which is lost primarily through reaction with OH, to estimate OH levels as well as CH3CC3 emissions, which have uncertainty that previously limited the accuracy of OH estimates. We find a 64–70% probability that a decline in OH has contributed to the post-2007 methane rise. Our median solution suggests that CH4 emissions increased relatively steadily during the late 1990s and early 2000s, after which growth was more modest. This solution obviates the need for a sudden statistically significant change in total CH4 emissions around the year 2007 to explain the atmospheric observations and can explain some of the decline in the atmospheric 13CH4/12CH4 ratio and the recent growth in C2H6. Our approach indicates that significant OH-related uncertainties in the CH4 budget remain, and we find that it is not possible to implicate, with a high degree of confidence, rapid global CH4 emissions changes as the primary driver of recent trends when our inferred OH trends and these uncertainties are considered. PMID:28416657

SUPRATHERMAL ELECTRONS IN THE SOLAR CORONA: CAN NONLOCAL TRANSPORT EXPLAIN HELIOSPHERIC CHARGE STATES?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cranmer, Steven R., E-mail: scranmer@cfa.harvard.edu

There have been several ideas proposed to explain how the Sun's corona is heated and how the solar wind is accelerated. Some models assume that open magnetic field lines are heated by Alfvén waves driven by photospheric motions and dissipated after undergoing a turbulent cascade. Other models posit that much of the solar wind's mass and energy is injected via magnetic reconnection from closed coronal loops. The latter idea is motivated by observations of reconnecting jets and also by similarities of ion composition between closed loops and the slow wind. Wave/turbulence models have also succeeded in reproducing observed trends inmore » ion composition signatures versus wind speed. However, the absolute values of the charge-state ratios predicted by those models tended to be too low in comparison with observations. This Letter refines these predictions by taking better account of weak Coulomb collisions for coronal electrons, whose thermodynamic properties determine the ion charge states in the low corona. A perturbative description of nonlocal electron transport is applied to an existing set of wave/turbulence models. The resulting electron velocity distributions in the low corona exhibit mild suprathermal tails characterized by ''kappa'' exponents between 10 and 25. These suprathermal electrons are found to be sufficiently energetic to enhance the charge states of oxygen ions, while maintaining the same relative trend with wind speed that was found when the distribution was assumed to be Maxwellian. The updated wave/turbulence models are in excellent agreement with solar wind ion composition measurements.« less

Trends in oral drug bioavailability following bariatric surgery: examining the variable extent of impact on exposure of different drug classes.

PubMed

Darwich, Adam S; Henderson, Kathryn; Burgin, Angela; Ward, Nicola; Whittam, Janet; Ammori, Basil J; Ashcroft, Darren M; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin

2012-11-01

Changes to oral drug bioavailability have been observed post bariatric surgery. However, the magnitude and the direction of changes have not been assessed systematically to provide insights into the parameters governing the observed trends. Understanding these can help with dose adjustments. Analysis of drug characteristics based on a biopharmaceutical classification system is not adequate to explain observed trends in altered oral drug bioavailability following bariatric surgery, although the findings suggest solubility to play an important role. To identify the most commonly prescribed drugs in a bariatric surgery population and to assess existing evidence regarding trends in oral drug bioavailability post bariatric surgery. A retrospective audit was undertaken to document commonly prescribed drugs amongst patients undergoing bariatric surgery in an NHS hospital in the UK and to assess practice for drug administration following bariatric surgery. The available literature was examined for trends relating to drug permeability and solubility with regards to the Biopharmaceutics Classification System (BCS) and main route of elimination. No significant difference in the 'post/pre surgery oral drug exposure ratio' (ppR) was apparent between BCS class I to IV drugs, with regards to dose number (Do) or main route of elimination. Drugs classified as 'solubility limited' displayed an overall reduction as compared with 'freely soluble' compounds, as well as an unaltered and increased ppR. Clinical studies establishing guidelines for commonly prescribed drugs, and the monitoring of drugs exhibiting a narrow therapeutic window or without a readily assessed clinical endpoint, are warranted. Using mechanistically based pharmacokinetic modelling for simulating the multivariate nature of changes in drug exposure may serve as a useful tool in the further understanding of postoperative trends in oral drug exposure and in developing practical clinical guidance. © 2012 The Authors. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology © 2012 The British Pharmacological Society.

Changes in the intensity of Mediterranean precipitation: a comparison of east/west trends and their causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodess, C. M.; Jones, P. D.

2003-04-01

Changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation over the last 40 years have been investigated for the Iberian Peninsula and Greece. Over much of the Mediterranean the general tendency is towards decreasing precipitation, but the pattern of change is complex, particularly with respect to extremes. Over most of the Iberian Peninsula, the last 40 years has seen a trend towards more, but less wet rain days. However, in southeast Spain, the reverse has occurred, with more wet days with high precipitation amounts. Over Greece, the main tendency is towards fewer rain days, with little change in rain day amount, which is strongest over the Ionian and Aegean Seas and in winter. A few places, such as Rhodes, do however, show a weak trend towards more intense precipitation events in autumn. The precipitation changes observed over the Iberian Peninsula can, in part, be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation. They are associated with a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic circulation types and increases in the frequency of anticyclonic, easterly and south-easterly types (which can in turn be linked with changes in the intensity of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the frequency and intensity of Mediterranean and Atlantic cyclones). However, precipitation trends simulated by regression models with circulation-type frequency as the predictor variables are weaker than observed. The observed changes in circulation-type frequency over Greece (such as the increase in the frequency of the 'high-precipitation' cyclonic types and decrease in the 'low-precipitation' anticyclonic types) indicate an increase in precipitation. This is in contrast to the observed precipitation decreases. All the regression models underestimate year-to-year variability, and have problems in reproducing the observed trends. The common problems in both regions indicate that different forms of model may be required. The finding that the selected predictor variables are more successful at reproducing the observed precipitation trends in Spain than Greece, indicates different underlying physical processes which require further investigation. Goodess, CM and Jones, PD, 2002: Links between circulation and changes in the characteristics of Iberian precipitation, Int. J. Climatol. 22, 1593-1615. Acknowledgements: This work (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/nerc.htm) was funded by the Commission of the European Union as part of the ACCORD project and by the UK Natural Environment Research Council.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blanco, Arthur S.; Gerlagh, Reyer; Suh, Sangwon

Chapter 5 analyzes the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends until the present and the main drivers that explain those trends. The chapter uses different perspectives to analyze past GHG-emissions trends, including aggregate emissions flows and per capita emissions, cumulative emissions, sectoral emissions, and territory-based vs. consumption-based emissions. In all cases, global and regional trends are analyzed. Where appropriate, the emission trends are contextualized with long-term historic developments in GHG emissions extending back to 1750.

Those ubiquitous fertility trends: United States, 1945-1979.

PubMed

Sweet, J A; Rindfuss, R R

1983-01-01

1970-79 US fertility trends among differnet racial, regional, age, educational, parity, and socioeconomic subgroups in the population were examined, using own children data from the 1976 Survey of Income and Education (SIE) and the March Current Population Surveys (CPS) from 1968-80. In addition, cross-sectional differences in fertility for the subgroups were compared for 1970 and 1976, using multiple regression analysis. 1st, the appropriateness of using fertility rates obtained from own children data was assessed by comparing fertility rates obtained from the SIE data with those derived from vital statistic and census data. The comparative analysis confirmed that the SIE data yielded an accurate estimate of period fertility rates for currently married women, provided the subgroup samples were sufficiently large. CPS fertility estimates were also judged to be accurate if data from 3 adjacent survey years was pooled to increase sample size. Fertility trends for 5 educational groups were assessed separately for 1967-73. During this periold, there was a marked decline in fertility for all 5 groups; for the group with 5-8 years of education the decline was only 14%, but for the other 4 groups, which included women with 9-16 or more years of education, the decline in fertility ranged from 26-29%. In assessing the 1970-76 trends, the sample was restricted to own children, aged 3 years or less, of currently married women, under 40 years of age. Among whites, there was an overall 20% decline in fertility between 1970-76 and an overall fertility increase of about 2% between 1976-79. These trends were observed in all 28 white subgroups. A similar pattern was observed for blacks. There was an overall fertility decline of 24% between 1970-76, and this decline was apparent for all subgroups except women with college degrees. Betwen 1976-79, black fertility rates, unlike white rates, continued to decline, but the rate of decline was only 3%. Furthermore, the decline in almost all the black subgroups was markedly less than in the 1970-76 periold, and for many of the subgroups the trend was reversed and fertility increased. In summary, the fertility trends noted for 1970-79 were pervasive for almost all the subgroups for both blacks and whites; i.e., there was a marked decline in fertility between 1970-76 and than a reversal or slowing down of the decline during the 1976-79 for all black and white subgroups. Cross-sectional fertility differences in the subgroups in 1970 and in 1979 were quite similar, and fertility rates differed markedly for the separate subgroups. These differences do not, of course, explain the pervasive trends observed in the analysis of the fertility rates over time. A similar study assessing fertility trends among subgroups for the early 1940's through the late 1960s also revealed the pervasive nature of period fertility trends. Demographers have not as yet been able to explain these shifts in fertility that cut across all subgroups in the US and which also characterize the period fertility rates in other developed countries. Tables provided information on 1) total fertility rates by educational level and by geographical region for 1945-1975; 2) % change in number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, maternal education, initial parity, geographical region, and husband's income; and 3) mean number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, education, parity, region, and husband's income.

Research fronts analysis : A bibliometric to identify emerging fields of research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miwa, Sayaka; Ando, Satoko

Research fronts analysis identifies emerging areas of research through observing co-clustering in highly-cited papers. This article introduces the concept of research fronts analysis, explains its methodology and provides case examples. It also demonstrates developing research fronts in Japan by looking at the past winners of Thomson Reuters Research Fronts Awards. Research front analysis is currently being used by the Japanese government to determine new trends in science and technology. Information professionals can also utilize this bibliometric as a research evaluation tool.

Suppressed mid-latitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Q.

2016-12-01

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heatwaves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH mid-latitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH mid-latitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.

Global Ocean Integrals and Means, with Trend Implications.

PubMed

Wunsch, Carl

2016-01-01

Understanding the ocean requires determining and explaining global integrals and equivalent average values of temperature (heat), salinity (freshwater and salt content), sea level, energy, and other properties. Attempts to determine means, integrals, and climatologies have been hindered by thinly and poorly distributed historical observations in a system in which both signals and background noise are spatially very inhomogeneous, leading to potentially large temporal bias errors that must be corrected at the 1% level or better. With the exception of the upper ocean in the current altimetric-Argo era, no clear documentation exists on the best methods for estimating means and their changes for quantities such as heat and freshwater at the levels required for anthropogenic signals. Underestimates of trends are as likely as overestimates; for example, recent inferences that multidecadal oceanic heat uptake has been greatly underestimated are plausible. For new or augmented observing systems, calculating the accuracies and precisions of global, multidecadal sampling densities for the full water column is necessary to avoid the irrecoverable loss of scientifically essential information.

Ceramic micro-injection molded nozzles for serial femtosecond crystallography sample delivery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyerlein, K. R.; Adriano, L.; Heymann, M.; Kirian, R.; Knoška, J.; Wilde, F.; Chapman, H. N.; Bajt, S.

2015-12-01

Serial femtosecond crystallography (SFX) using X-ray Free-Electron Lasers (XFELs) allows for room temperature protein structure determination without evidence of conventional radiation damage. In this method, a liquid suspension of protein microcrystals can be delivered to the X-ray beam in vacuum as a micro-jet, which replenishes the crystals at a rate that exceeds the current XFEL pulse repetition rate. Gas dynamic virtual nozzles produce the required micrometer-sized streams by the focusing action of a coaxial sheath gas and have been shown to be effective for SFX experiments. Here, we describe the design and characterization of such nozzles assembled from ceramic micro-injection molded outer gas-focusing capillaries. Trends of the emitted jet diameter and jet length as a function of supplied liquid and gas flow rates are measured by a fast imaging system. The observed trends are explained by derived relationships considering choked gas flow and liquid flow conservation. Finally, the performance of these nozzles in a SFX experiment is presented, including an analysis of the observed background.

Observed increase in extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribes, Aurélien; Thao, Soulivanh; Vautard, Robert; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Somot, Samuel; Colin, Jeanne; Planton, Serge; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

2018-04-01

We examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area. Extreme events are considered in terms of their intensity, frequency, extent and precipitated volume. Changes in intensity are analysed via an original statistical approach where the annual maximum rainfall amounts observed at each measurement station are aggregated into a univariate time-series according to their dependence. The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at + 22% (+ 7 to + 39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period. Given the observed warming over the considered area, this increase is consistent with a rate of about one to three times that implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Changes in frequency and other spatial features are investigated through a Generalised Linear Model. Changes in frequency for events exceeding high thresholds (about 200 mm in 1 day) are found to be significant, typically near a doubling of the frequency, but with large uncertainties in this change ratio. The area affected by severe events and the water volume precipitated during those events also exhibit significant trends, with an increase by a factor of about 4 for a 200 mm threshold, again with large uncertainties. All diagnoses consistently point toward an intensification of the most extreme events over the last decades. We argue that it is difficult to explain the diagnosed trends without invoking the human influence on climate.

Global trends in nasopharyngeal cancer mortality since 1970 and predictions for 2020: Focus on low-risk areas.

PubMed

Carioli, Greta; Negri, Eva; Kawakita, Daisuke; Garavello, Werner; La Vecchia, Carlo; Malvezzi, Matteo

2017-05-15

Nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) mortality shows great disparity between endemic high risk areas, where non-keratinizing carcinoma (NKC) histology is prevalent, and non-endemic low risk regions, where the keratinizing squamous cell carcinoma (KSCC) type is more frequent. We used the World Health Organization database to calculate NPC mortality trends from 1970 to 2014 in several countries worldwide. For the European Union (EU), the United States (US) and Japan, we also predicted trends to 2020. In 2012, the highest age-standardized (world standard) rates were in Hong Kong (4.51/100,000 men and 1.15/100,000 women), followed by selected Eastern European countries. The lowest rates were in Northern Europe and Latin America. EU rates were 0.27/100,000 men and 0.09/100,000 women, US rates were 0.20/100,000 men and 0.08/100,000 women and Japanese rates were 0.16/100,000 men and 0.04/100,000 women. NPC mortality trends were favourable for several countries. The decline was -15% in men and -5% in women between 2002 and 2012 in the EU, -12% in men and -9% in women in the US and about -30% in both sexes in Hong Kong and Japan. The favourable patterns in Europe and the United States are predicted to continue. Changes in salted fish and preserved food consumption account for the fall in NKC. Smoking and alcohol prevalence disparities between sexes and geographic areas may explain the different rates and trends observed for KSCC and partially for NKC. Dietary patterns, as well as improvement in management of the disease, may partly account for the observed trends, too. © 2017 UICC.

Long-term trend and variability of atmospheric PM10 concentration in the Po Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigi, A.; Ghermandi, G.

2014-05-01

The limits to atmospheric pollutant concentration set by the European Commission provide a challenging target for the municipalities in the Po Valley, because of the characteristic climatic conditions and high population density of this region. In order to assess climatology and trends in the concentration of atmospheric particles in the Po Valley, a data set of PM10 data from 41 sites across the Po Valley have been analysed, including both traffic and background sites (either urban, suburban or rural). Of these 41 sites, 18 with 10 yr or longer record have been analysed for long-term trend in deseasonalized monthly means, in annual quantiles and in monthly frequency distribution. A widespread significant decreasing trend has been observed at most sites, up to a few percent per year, by a generalized least squares and Theil-Sen method. All 41 sites have been tested for significant weekly periodicity by Kruskal-Wallis test for mean anomalies and by Wilcoxon test for weekend effect magnitude. A significant weekly periodicity has been observed for most PM10 series, particularly in summer and ascribed mainly to anthropic particulate emissions. A cluster analysis has been applied in order to highlight stations sharing similar pollution conditions over the reference period. Five clusters have been found, two encompassing the metropolitan areas of Turin and Milan and their respective nearby sites and the other three clusters gathering northeast, northwest and central Po Valley sites respectively. Finally, the observed trends in atmospheric PM10 have been compared to trends in provincial emissions of particulates and PM precursors, and analysed along with data on vehicular fleet age, composition and fuel sales. A significant basin-wide drop in emissions occurred for gaseous pollutants, contrarily to emissions of PM10 and PM2.5, whose drop was low and restricted to a few provinces. It is not clear whether the decrease for only gaseous emissions is sufficient to explain the observed drop in atmospheric PM10, or if the low drop in particulate emissions is indeed due to the uncertainty in the emission inventory data for this species.

Lessons Learned from AIRS: Improved Determination of Surface and Atmospheric Temperatures Using Only Shortwave AIRS Channels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel

2011-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the use of shortwave channels available to the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) to improve the determination of surface and atmospheric temperatures. The AIRS instrument is compared with the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on-board the MetOp-A satellite. The objectives of the AIRS/AMSU were to (1) provide real time observations to improve numerical weather prediction via data assimilation, (2) Provide observations to measure and explain interannual variability and trends and (3) Use of AIRS product error estimates allows for QC optimized for each application. Successive versions in the AIRS retrieval methodology have shown significant improvement.

Divergent responses to spring and winter warming drive community level flowering trends

PubMed Central

Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Parmesan, Camille

2012-01-01

Analyses of datasets throughout the temperate midlatitude regions show a widespread tendency for species to advance their springtime phenology, consistent with warming trends over the past 20–50 y. Within these general trends toward earlier spring, however, are species that either have insignificant trends or have delayed their timing. Various explanations have been offered to explain this apparent nonresponsiveness to warming, including the influence of other abiotic cues (e.g., photoperiod) or reductions in fall/winter chilling (vernalization). Few studies, however, have explicitly attributed the historical trends of nonresponding species to any specific factor. Here, we analyzed long-term data on phenology and seasonal temperatures from 490 species on two continents and demonstrate that (i) apparent nonresponders are indeed responding to warming, but their responses to fall/winter and spring warming are opposite in sign and of similar magnitude; (ii) observed trends in first flowering date depend strongly on the magnitude of a given species’ response to fall/winter vs. spring warming; and (iii) inclusion of fall/winter temperature cues strongly improves hindcast model predictions of long-term flowering trends compared with models with spring warming only. With a few notable exceptions, climate change research has focused on the overall mean trend toward phenological advance, minimizing discussion of apparently nonresponding species. Our results illuminate an understudied source of complexity in wild species responses and support the need for models incorporating diverse environmental cues to improve predictability of community level responses to anthropogenic climate change. PMID:22615406

Time trends in physical activity in the state of São Paulo, Brazil: 2002-2008.

PubMed

Matsudo, Victor K R; Matsudo, Sandra M; Araújo, Timóteo L; Andrade, Douglas R; Oliveira, Luis C; Hallal, Pedro C

2010-12-01

To document time trends in physical activity in the state of São Paulo, Brazil (2002-2008). In addition, we discuss the role of Agita São Paulo at explaining such trends. Cross-sectional surveys were carried out in 2002, 2003, 2006, and 2008 in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, using comparable sampling approaches and similar sample sizes. In all surveys, physical activity was measured using the short version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Separate weekly scores of walking and moderate- and vigorous-intensity physical activities were generated; cutoff points of 0 and 150 min·wk were used. Also, we created a total physical activity score by summing these three types of activity. We used logistic regression models for adjusting time trends for the different sociodemographic compositions of the samples. The prevalence of no physical activity decreased from 9.6% in 2002 to 2.7% in 2008, whereas the proportion of subjects below the 150-min threshold decreased from 43.7% in 2002 to 11.6% in 2008. These trends were mainly explained by increases in walking and moderate-intensity physical activity. Increases in physical activity were slightly greater among females than among males. Logistic regression models confirmed that these trends were not due to the different compositions of the samples. Physical activity levels are increasing in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Considering that the few data available in Brazil using the same instrument indicate exactly the opposite trend and that Agita São Paulo primarily incentives the involvement in moderate-intensity physical activity and walking, it seems that at least part of the trends described here are explained by the Agita São Paulo program.

Seasonal to Interannual Surface Ocean Salinity Trends With Aquarius Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagerloef, G. S. E.; Kao, H. Y.; Carey, D.

2017-12-01

An important scientific goal for satellite salinity observations is to document oceanic climate trends and their link to changes in the water cycle. This study is a re-examination of seasonal to interannual sea surface salinity (SSS) variations from more recent analyses of V5.0 reprocessing of the Aquarius satellite data, Sep 2011 to May 2015. Sensor calibration over these time scales has been a concern, and the V5.0 includes improved calibration reference data compared to previous versions, which will be explained. Orthogonal mode analyses show that the annual cycle dominates the variability, and is strongest in the tropics. Interannual trends indicate the principal salinity patterns during onset of the 2015-16 El Niño. Recognizing that the Aquarius data record is now finite (Sep 2011 through May 2015) due to the mission failure in early June 2015, we will conclude with a status summary of the disposition of the Aquarius data and the prospects for continuing satellite salinity measurements.

Trends of Rural Tropospheric Ozone at the Northwest of the Iberian Peninsula

PubMed Central

Saavedra, S.; Rodríguez, A.; Souto, J. A.; Casares, J. J.; Bermúdez, J. L.; Soto, B.

2012-01-01

Tropospheric ozone levels around urban and suburban areas at Europe and North America had increased during 80's–90's, until the application of NOx reduction strategies. However, as it was expected, this ozone depletion was not proportional to the emissions reduction. On the other hand, rural ozone levels show different trends, with peaks reduction and average increments; this different evolution could be explained by either emission changes or climate variability in a region. In this work, trends of tropospheric ozone episodes at rural sites in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula were analyzed and compared to others observed in different regions of the Atlantic European coast. Special interest was focused on the air quality sites characterization, in order to guarantee their rural character in terms of air quality. Both episodic local meteorological and air quality measurements along five years were considered, in order to study possible meteorological influences in ozone levels, different to other European Atlantic regions. PMID:22649298

Trends of rural tropospheric ozone at the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

Saavedra, S; Rodríguez, A; Souto, J A; Casares, J J; Bermúdez, J L; Soto, B

2012-01-01

Tropospheric ozone levels around urban and suburban areas at Europe and North America had increased during 80's-90's, until the application of NO(x) reduction strategies. However, as it was expected, this ozone depletion was not proportional to the emissions reduction. On the other hand, rural ozone levels show different trends, with peaks reduction and average increments; this different evolution could be explained by either emission changes or climate variability in a region. In this work, trends of tropospheric ozone episodes at rural sites in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula were analyzed and compared to others observed in different regions of the Atlantic European coast. Special interest was focused on the air quality sites characterization, in order to guarantee their rural character in terms of air quality. Both episodic local meteorological and air quality measurements along five years were considered, in order to study possible meteorological influences in ozone levels, different to other European Atlantic regions.

Anomalous heat transfer modes of nanofluids: a review based on statistical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergis, Antonis; Hardalupas, Yannis

2011-05-01

This paper contains the results of a concise statistical review analysis of a large amount of publications regarding the anomalous heat transfer modes of nanofluids. The application of nanofluids as coolants is a novel practise with no established physical foundations explaining the observed anomalous heat transfer. As a consequence, traditional methods of performing a literature review may not be adequate in presenting objectively the results representing the bulk of the available literature. The current literature review analysis aims to resolve the problems faced by researchers in the past by employing an unbiased statistical analysis to present and reveal the current trends and general belief of the scientific community regarding the anomalous heat transfer modes of nanofluids. The thermal performance analysis indicated that statistically there exists a variable enhancement for conduction, convection/mixed heat transfer, pool boiling heat transfer and critical heat flux modes. The most popular proposed mechanisms in the literature to explain heat transfer in nanofluids are revealed, as well as possible trends between nanofluid properties and thermal performance. The review also suggests future experimentation to provide more conclusive answers to the control mechanisms and influential parameters of heat transfer in nanofluids.

Anomalous heat transfer modes of nanofluids: a review based on statistical analysis.

PubMed

Sergis, Antonis; Hardalupas, Yannis

2011-05-19

This paper contains the results of a concise statistical review analysis of a large amount of publications regarding the anomalous heat transfer modes of nanofluids. The application of nanofluids as coolants is a novel practise with no established physical foundations explaining the observed anomalous heat transfer. As a consequence, traditional methods of performing a literature review may not be adequate in presenting objectively the results representing the bulk of the available literature. The current literature review analysis aims to resolve the problems faced by researchers in the past by employing an unbiased statistical analysis to present and reveal the current trends and general belief of the scientific community regarding the anomalous heat transfer modes of nanofluids. The thermal performance analysis indicated that statistically there exists a variable enhancement for conduction, convection/mixed heat transfer, pool boiling heat transfer and critical heat flux modes. The most popular proposed mechanisms in the literature to explain heat transfer in nanofluids are revealed, as well as possible trends between nanofluid properties and thermal performance. The review also suggests future experimentation to provide more conclusive answers to the control mechanisms and influential parameters of heat transfer in nanofluids.

Anomalous heat transfer modes of nanofluids: a review based on statistical analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

This paper contains the results of a concise statistical review analysis of a large amount of publications regarding the anomalous heat transfer modes of nanofluids. The application of nanofluids as coolants is a novel practise with no established physical foundations explaining the observed anomalous heat transfer. As a consequence, traditional methods of performing a literature review may not be adequate in presenting objectively the results representing the bulk of the available literature. The current literature review analysis aims to resolve the problems faced by researchers in the past by employing an unbiased statistical analysis to present and reveal the current trends and general belief of the scientific community regarding the anomalous heat transfer modes of nanofluids. The thermal performance analysis indicated that statistically there exists a variable enhancement for conduction, convection/mixed heat transfer, pool boiling heat transfer and critical heat flux modes. The most popular proposed mechanisms in the literature to explain heat transfer in nanofluids are revealed, as well as possible trends between nanofluid properties and thermal performance. The review also suggests future experimentation to provide more conclusive answers to the control mechanisms and influential parameters of heat transfer in nanofluids. PMID:21711932

Comparison of Plains Volcanism in the Tempe Terra Region of Mars to the Eastern Snake River Plains, Idaho with Implications for Geochemical Constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weren, S. L.; Sakimoto, S. E. H.; Hughes, S. S.; Gregg, T. K. P.

2004-01-01

The Eastern Snake River Plains (ESRP) in Idaho have long been considered a terrestrial analog for the plains volcanism like that evident in Syria Planum and Tempe Terra, Mars. Both the ESRP and Tempe Terra are sediment-blanketed volcanic fields in areas with significant extensional faulting. Similar volcanic features can be observed throughout both study areas using field analysis and DEMs of the ESRP and the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data from Mars. These features include flow fields, low shields, shields with steep summits, and fissure eruptions. A few other volcanic features, such as cinder cones, which suggest variable compositions, volatile interactions, and multiple volcanic events can be seen in both areas. The eruptions in both the ESRP and Tempe Terra generally originate from the fissures creating elongate, multi-vent shields as well as isolated or aligned single vent shields. Many of these show evidence of radial flow patterns from summit craters as well as lava tube fed flows. The volcanoes of Tempe Terra display some of the global latitudinal parameter trends of small volcanoes on Mars. Some of these trends may be explained by the variation of volatile content and compositional variation across Mars. However, within Tempe Terra no significant local latitudinal trends can be seen in edifice attributes and not all variations are explained by global trends. This study builds upon previous studies of the Tempe Terra region and the ESRP in order to develop a more detailed representation of features and topographic data. Using these data we attempt to help constrain the composition and eruptive style of the Tempe Terra volcanoes by correlating them with the similar and quantified ESRP variations.

A NEAR-INFRARED SPECTROSCOPIC SURVEY OF COOL WHITE DWARFS IN THE SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kilic, Mukremin; Kowalski, Piotr M.; Von Hippel, Ted

2009-07-15

We present near-infrared photometric observations of 15 and spectroscopic observations of 38 cool white dwarfs (WDs). This is the largest near-infrared spectroscopic survey of cool WDs to date. Combining the Sloan Digital Sky Survey photometry and our near-infrared data, we perform a detailed model atmosphere analysis. The spectral energy distributions of our objects are explained fairly well by model atmospheres with temperatures ranging from 6300 K down to 4200 K. Two WDs show significant absorption in the infrared, and are best explained with mixed H/He atmosphere models. Based on the up-to-date model atmosphere calculations by Kowalski and Saumon, we findmore » that the majority of the stars in our sample have hydrogen-rich atmospheres. We do not find any pure helium atmosphere WDs below 5000 K, and we find a trend of increasing hydrogen to helium ratio with decreasing temperature. These findings present an important challenge to understanding the spectral evolution of WDs.« less

Hartree-Fock values of energies, interaction constants, and atomic properties for excited states with 3 d N4 s0 and 3 d n4 s2 configurations of the negative ions, neutral atoms, and first four positive ions of the transition elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, C. D.; Jastram, J. D.; Hitt, N. P.; Woffod, J.; Rice, K. C.

2012-12-01

Global climate-change models predict warmer stream temperatures, but there have been few studies that document such effects on stream communities. In Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, long-term temperature records indicate that stream temperatures show an increasing trend over the last 20 years and especially over the last 10 years. Stream temperatures have increased apparently due to atmospheric warming (i.e., stream temperatures are strongly correlated with regional air temperature patterns). Across 14 monitored stream sites, the median increase in maximum annual water temperature was 0.32oC per year for the 10-yr period between 2000 and 2009, and all 14 sites had positive trend slopes. Moreover, in contrast to water-chemistry trends, temperature trends showed no spatial structure and were consistent throughout the park. The observed warming is consistent with global warming projections, but other factors, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and forest defoliation due to gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), also may have contributed to warming trends. We summarized benthic macroinvertebrate community composition and structure from samples collected at 24 stream sites over the last 20 years and evaluated temporal patterns in the context of observed temperature trends. We found that a substantial amount of temporal variation in both taxonomic composition and community structure could be explained by temperature trends, even after accounting for water-chemistry changes. We observed significant declines in community diversity as well as a decline in the abundance of several stonefly (Plecoptera) taxa, a cold-water-dependent taxonomic group. We hypothesize that temperature-induced changes in the diversity and composition of macroinvertebrate communities could cascade to other faunal groups and other parts of the watershed. For instance, reduced abundances of stoneflies, an important component of the shredder functional group, may lead to reduced export of fine particulate organic matter from headwaters, disrupting food webs and reducing productivity to stream reaches farther downstream.

Setting the stage for habitable planets.

PubMed

Gonzalez, Guillermo

2014-02-21

Our understanding of the processes that are relevant to the formation and maintenance of habitable planetary systems is advancing at a rapid pace, both from observation and theory. The present review focuses on recent research that bears on this topic and includes discussions of processes occurring in astrophysical, geophysical and climatic contexts, as well as the temporal evolution of planetary habitability. Special attention is given to recent observations of exoplanets and their host stars and the theories proposed to explain the observed trends. Recent theories about the early evolution of the Solar System and how they relate to its habitability are also summarized. Unresolved issues requiring additional research are pointed out, and a framework is provided for estimating the number of habitable planets in the Universe.

Setting the Stage for Habitable Planets

PubMed Central

Gonzalez, Guillermo

2014-01-01

Our understanding of the processes that are relevant to the formation and maintenance of habitable planetary systems is advancing at a rapid pace, both from observation and theory. The present review focuses on recent research that bears on this topic and includes discussions of processes occurring in astrophysical, geophysical and climatic contexts, as well as the temporal evolution of planetary habitability. Special attention is given to recent observations of exoplanets and their host stars and the theories proposed to explain the observed trends. Recent theories about the early evolution of the Solar System and how they relate to its habitability are also summarized. Unresolved issues requiring additional research are pointed out, and a framework is provided for estimating the number of habitable planets in the Universe. PMID:25370028

Carbon economics of LAI drive photosynthesis patterns across an Amazonian precipitation gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flack, Sophie; Williams, Mathew; Meir, Patrick; Malhi, Yadvinder

2017-04-01

The Amazon rainforest is an integral part of the terrestrial carbon cycle, yet whilst the physiological response of its plants to water availability is increasingly well quantified, constraints to photosynthesis through adaptive response to precipitation regime have received little attention. We use the Soil Plant Atmosphere model to apportion variation in photosynthesis to individual drivers for plots with detailed measurements of carbon cycling, leaf traits and canopy properties, along an Amazonian mean annual precipitation (MAP) gradient. We hypothesised that leaf area index (LAI) would be the principal driver of variation in photosynthesis. Differences in LAI are predicted to result from economic factors; plants balance the carbon cost of leaf construction and maintenance with assimilation potential, to maximise canopy carbon export. Model analysis showed that LAI was the primary driver of differences in GPP along the precipitation gradient, accounting for 49% of observed variation. Meteorology accounted for 19%, whilst plant traits accounted for only 5%. To explain the observed spatial trends in LAI we undertook model experiments. For each plot the carbon budget was quantified iteratively using the field measured LAI time-series of the other plots, keeping meteorology, soil and plant traits constant. The mean annual LAI achieving maximum photosynthesis and net canopy carbon export increased with MAP, reflecting observed LAI trends. At the driest site, alternative, higher LAI strategies were unsustainable. The carbon cost of leaf construction and maintenance was disproportional to GPP achieved. At high MAP, increased foliar carbon costs were remunerative and GPP was maximised by high LAI. Our evidence therefore suggests that observed LAI trends across the precipitation gradient are driven by carbon economics. Forests LAI response to temporal changes in precipitation reflects trends observed across spatial gradients, identifying LAI as a key mechanism for plant response to water availability. This research improves our understanding of the constraints on photosynthesis through plants' adaptive response to precipitation, which in light of precipitation projections, has implications for the future Amazon carbon balance.

First liquid-layer implosion experiments at the NIF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zylstra, Alex

2017-10-01

Replacing the standard ice layer in an ignition design with a liquid layer allows fielding the target with a higher central vapor pressure, leading to reduced implosion convergence ratio (CR). At lower CR, the implosions are expected to be more robust to instabilities and asymmetries than standard ice-layer designs, and are also unique in that the hot spot can be primarily formed from material originating in the central fuel vapor. The first liquid-layer implosions on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) have been performed by wicking the liquid fuel into a supporting foam that lines the inside surface of the capsule. A series of shots has been conducted between CR of 12 and 20 using a HDC ablator driven by a 3-shock pulse in a near-vacuum Au hohlraum. At the lowest CR the implosion performance is well predicted by 2-D radiation-hydrodynamics calculations. However, as the CR is increased the nominal simulations do not capture the experimentally observed trends. Data-based models suggest that the hot spot formation is unexpectedly suppressed at higher convergence. The data could be explained by reduced hydrodynamic coupling efficiency, or an anomalously enhanced thermal conductivity in the mixed DT/foam material. We show that the latter hypothesis can explain observed trends in several experimental metrics, including the yield, ion temperature, and burn duration. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. DoE by LANL under contract DE-AC52-06NA52396.

Contribution of large-scale circulation anomalies to changes in extreme precipitation frequency in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan; Pei, Lisi; Bian, Xindi; Heilman, Warren E.

2016-04-01

The mean global climate has warmed as a result of the increasing emission of greenhouse gases induced by human activities. This warming is considered the main reason for the increasing number of extreme precipitation events in the US. While much attention has been given to extreme precipitation events occurring over several days, which are usually responsible for severe flooding over a large region, little is known about how extreme precipitation events that cause flash flooding and occur at sub-daily time scales have changed over time. Here we use the observed hourly precipitation from the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 forcing datasets to determine trends in the frequency of extreme precipitation events of short (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h and 24 h) duration for the period 1979-2013. The results indicate an increasing trend in the central and eastern US. Over most of the western US, especially the Southwest and the Intermountain West, the trends are generally negative. These trends can be largely explained by the interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with the AMO making a greater contribution to the trends in both warm and cold seasons.

Analysis of trends and dominant periodicities in drought variables in India: A wavelet transform based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Nitin; Gupta, Divya; Suryavanshi, Shakti; Adamowski, Jan; Madramootoo, Chandra A.

2016-12-01

In this study, seasonal trends as well as dominant and significant periods of variability of drought variables were analyzed for 30 rainfall subdivisions in India over 141 years (1871-2012). Standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used as a meteorological drought indicator, and various drought variables (monsoon SPI, non-monsoon SPI, yearly SPI, annual drought duration, annual drought severity and annual drought peak) were analyzed. Discrete wavelet transform was used in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall test to analyze trends and dominant periodicities associated with the drought variables. Furthermore, continuous wavelet transform (CWT) based global wavelet spectrum was used to analyze significant periods of variability associated with the drought variables. From the trend analysis, we observed that over the second half of the 20th century, drought occurrences increased significantly in subdivisions of Northeast and Central India. In both short-term (2-8 years) and decadal (16-32 years) periodicities, the drought variables were found to influence the trend. However, CWT analysis indicated that the dominant periodic components were not significant for most of the geographical subdivisions. Although inter-annual and inter-decadal periodic components play an important role, they may not completely explain the variability associated with the drought variables across the country.

Explaining trends in coronary heart disease mortality in different socioeconomic groups in Denmark 1991-2007 using the IMPACTSEC model.

PubMed

Joensen, Albert Marni; Joergensen, Torben; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Johansen, Martin Berg; Guzman-Castillo, Maria; Bandosz, Piotr; Hallas, Jesper; Prescott, Eva Irene Bossano; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

2018-01-01

To quantify the contribution of changes in different risk factors population levels and treatment uptake on the decline in CHD mortality in Denmark from 1991 to 2007 in different socioeconomic groups. We used IMPACTSEC, a previously validated policy model using data from different population registries. All adults aged 25-84 years living in Denmark in 1991 and 2007. Deaths prevented or postponed (DPP). There were approximately 11,000 fewer CHD deaths in Denmark in 2007 than would be expected if the 1991 mortality rates had persisted. Higher mortality rates were observed in the lowest socioeconomic quintile. The highest absolute reduction in CHD mortality was seen in this group but the highest relative reduction was in the most affluent socioeconomic quintile. Overall, the IMPACTSEC model explained nearly two thirds of the decline in. Improved treatments accounted for approximately 25% with the least relative mortality reduction in the most deprived quintile. Risk factor improvements accounted for approximately 40% of the mortality decrease with similar gains across all socio-economic groups. The 36% gap in explaining all DPPs may reflect inaccurate data or risk factors not quantified in the current model. According to the IMPACTSEC model, the largest contribution to the CHD mortality decline in Denmark from 1991 to 2007 was from improvements in risk factors, with similar gains across all socio-economic groups. However, we found a clear socioeconomic trend for the treatment contribution favouring the most affluent groups.

Limitations of basing screening policies on screening trials: The US Preventive Services Task Force and Prostate Cancer Screening.

PubMed

Etzioni, Ruth; Gulati, Roman; Cooperberg, Matt R; Penson, David M; Weiss, Noel S; Thompson, Ian M

2013-04-01

The US Preventive Services Task Force recently recommended against prostate-specific antigen screening for prostate cancer based primarily on evidence from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) and the US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial. : To examine limitations of basing screening policy on evidence from screening trials. We reviewed published modeling studies that examined population and trial data. The studies (1) project the roles of screening and changes in primary treatment in the US mortality decline; (2) extrapolate the ERSPC mortality reduction to the long-term US setting; (3) estimate overdiagnosis based on US incidence trends; and (4) quantify the impact of control arm screening on PLCO mortality results. Screening plausibly explains 45% and changes in primary treatment can explain 33% of the US prostate cancer mortality decline. Extrapolating the ERSPC results to the long-term US setting implies an absolute mortality reduction at least 5 times greater than that observed in the trial. Approximately 28% of screen-detected cases are overdiagnosed in the United States versus 58% of screen-detected cases suggested by the ERSPC results. Control arm screening can explain the null result in the PLCO trial. Modeling studies indicate that population trends and trial results extended to the long-term population setting are consistent with greater benefit of prostate-specific antigen screening-and more favorable harm-benefit tradeoffs-than has been suggested by empirical trial evidence.

Thermal biology mediates responses of amphibians and reptiles to habitat modification.

PubMed

Nowakowski, A Justin; Watling, James I; Thompson, Michelle E; Brusch, George A; Catenazzi, Alessandro; Whitfield, Steven M; Kurz, David J; Suárez-Mayorga, Ángela; Aponte-Gutiérrez, Andrés; Donnelly, Maureen A; Todd, Brian D

2018-03-01

Human activities often replace native forests with warmer, modified habitats that represent novel thermal environments for biodiversity. Reducing biodiversity loss hinges upon identifying which species are most sensitive to the environmental conditions that result from habitat modification. Drawing on case studies and a meta-analysis, we examined whether observed and modelled thermal traits, including heat tolerances, variation in body temperatures, and evaporative water loss, explained variation in sensitivity of ectotherms to habitat modification. Low heat tolerances of lizards and amphibians and high evaporative water loss of amphibians were associated with increased sensitivity to habitat modification, often explaining more variation than non-thermal traits. Heat tolerances alone explained 24-66% (mean = 38%) of the variation in species responses, and these trends were largely consistent across geographic locations and spatial scales. As habitat modification alters local microclimates, the thermal biology of species will likely play a key role in the reassembly of terrestrial communities. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Connecting Snowmelt Runoff Timing Changes to Watershed Characteristics in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, I. T.; Peterson, D. H.

2008-12-01

Shifts in the timing of snowmelt runoff are an expected consequence of climatic changes and have been observed throughout western North America for the past several decades. While the snowmelt runoff has in general come earlier, the magnitude, and sometimes direction, of streamflow timing trends has varied throughout the region in a manner that is not explained by the differences in location or gauge elevation alone. The gauge-to-gauge differences in the observed streamflow timing trends, which have not been systematically explored, are investigated in this study by linking the hydrologic response of a stream to the physical characteristics of the watershed above the gauge. To this end, the very recent trends in streamflow timing measures (such as the timing of the start of the spring snowmelt pulse, the timing of the center of mass for flow, the annual flow, and the timing of the day when maximum flow occurs) for approximately 60 snowmelt-dominated gauges in California were analyzed in conjunction with a GIS-based data base of the watershed characteristics (such as elevation distribution, slope, aspect, and vegetation) through the 2008 runoff season. The improved knowledge of how a watershed has reacted to recent climatic changes can aid in the development of future adaptive strategies in managing water resources in California.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huntsman, J.R.

Eastern slate belt lithologies in the central Flowers quadrangle consist of metavolcanic and metasedimentary rocks. Very fine-grained quartz-white mica phyllite containing narrow, discontinuous layers of thinly laminated chlorite-rich rock and fine-grained, thinly layered, feldspar crystal felsic metatuff comprise the dominant, mappable units consistent across the quadrangle. An increase in grain size accompanied by a replacement of chlorite-rich lithologies with biotite [+-] garnet assemblages suggest metamorphic grade increases towards the western half of the quadrangle (quartz-muscovite schist and biotite-quartz-muscovite-feldspar gneiss). An early, northeast-trending foliation (050[degree] to 060[degree]) dipping moderately to steeply southeast persists across the quadrangle and is axial planar tomore » tight to isoclinal, recumbent to moderately inclined folds. Later non-coaxial folding produced steeply plunging, northerly trending (000[degree] to 020[degree]), open, asymmetric structures verging towards the east/southeast. Shear zones formed locally along the axial trend of these later folds and produced protomylonitic to mylonitic ( ) fabrics. Map patterns and cross-sectional interpretations are best explained by modification of zig-zag fold interference patterns. Thin section examination reveals garnets growing across the early axial planar foliation. The observed increase in metamorphic grade across the quadrangle matches the regional Alleghanian prograde event and constrains relative timing of observed deformational fabrics. Noticeably absent are regional, late-stage upright folds.« less

Non-detection of HC11N towards TMC-1: constraining the chemistry of large carbon-chain molecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loomis, Ryan A.; Shingledecker, Christopher N.; Langston, Glen; McGuire, Brett A.; Dollhopf, Niklaus M.; Burkhardt, Andrew M.; Corby, Joanna; Booth, Shawn T.; Carroll, P. Brandon; Turner, Barry; Remijan, Anthony J.

2016-12-01

Bell et al. reported the first detection of the cyanopolyyne HC11N towards the cold dark cloud TMC-1; no subsequent detections have been reported towards any source. Additional observations of cyanopolyynes and other carbon-chain molecules towards TMC-1 have shown a log-linear trend between molecule size and column density, and in an effort to further explore the underlying chemical processes driving this trend, we have analysed Green Bank Telescope observations of HC9N and HC11N towards TMC-1. Although we find an HC9N column density consistent with previous values, HC11N is not detected and we derive an upper limit column density significantly below that reported in Bell et al. Using a state-of-the-art chemical model, we have investigated possible explanations of non-linearity in the column density trend. Despite updating the chemical model to better account for ion-dipole interactions, we are not able to explain the non-detection of HC11N, and we interpret this as evidence of previously unknown carbon-chain chemistry. We propose that cyclization reactions may be responsible for the depleted HC11N abundance, and that products of these cyclization reactions should be investigated as candidate interstellar molecules.

Trends of urban surface temperature and heat island characteristics in the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benas, Nikolaos; Chrysoulakis, Nektarios; Cartalis, Constantinos

2017-11-01

Urban air temperature studies usually focus on the urban canopy heat island phenomenon, whereby the city center experiences higher near surface air temperatures compared to its surrounding non-urban areas. The Land Surface Temperature (LST) is used instead of urban air temperature to identify the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI). In this study, the nighttime LST and SUHI characteristics and trends in the seventeen largest Mediterranean cities were investigated, by analyzing satellite observations for the period 2001-2012. SUHI averages and trends were based on an innovative approach of comparing urban pixels to randomly selected non-urban pixels, which carries the potential to better standardize satellite-derived SUHI estimations. A positive trend for both LST and SUHI for the majority of the examined cities was documented. Furthermore, a 0.1 °C decade-1 increase in urban LST corresponded to an increase in SUHI by about 0.04 °C decade-1. A longitudinal differentiation was found in the urban LST trends, with higher positive values appearing in the eastern Mediterranean. Examination of urban infrastructure and development factors during the same period revealed correlations with SUHI trends, which can be used to explain differences among cities. However, the majority of the cities examined show considerably increased trends in terms of the enhancement of SUHI. These findings are considered important so as to promote sustainable urbanization, as well as to support the development of heat island adaptation and mitigation plans in the Mediterranean.

The 25 years long drought in Sahel and its impacts on ecosystems: Long term vegetation monitoring from the sky and on the ground

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dardel, Cecile; Kergoat, Laurent; Hiernaux, Pierre; Mougin, Eric; Grippa, Manuela; Tucker, Compton Jim

2013-04-01

The Sahel region is known to be very sensitive to climatic fluctuations. Precipitation interannual variability has immediate and strong consequences on water resources, vegetation production, all affecting human populations. All along its history, Sahel had to face extreme climatic events. In the recent past, a 25 years period of persistent drought jeopardized the ecosystems equilibrium. Indeed, from the 1970's to the mid 1990's, precipitations were strongly and repeatedly below average. A debate has grown for years in the scientific community about the evolving trend of ecosystem in Sahel: is there desertification, or rehabilitation indicated by a "re-greening" taking place since the 1980's, as observed on satellite data by many scientists? To answer these questions, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) time series derived from NOAA/AVHRR are analyzed and compared to field measurements of the herbaceous aboveground mass, tree inventory and crop phytomass collected in Mali and Niger, from 1984 to 2011 and 1994 to 2011 respectively. The GIMMS-3g NDVI trends analysis from 1981 to 2011 show positive and significant slope values over almost every part of the Sahel, except for western Niger and central Sudan, thus reinforcing the "re-greening" hypothesis. Field observations are in good agreement with satellite data. A positive trend is observed over the Gourma in Mali, particularly for periods beginning in the 1980's, showing the ecosystem resilience to drought. A similar recovery is observed in western Niger, but only up to the mid 1990's, then the trend turns negative without being explained by rainfall. While the Gourma is mainly a pastoral land, western Niger is an agro-pastoral region in which cropped surfaces expanded widely over the last decades. For both regions, the re-greening trends are mainly observed on sandy soils, while erosion processes have been observed on shallow soil surfaces, inducing increased run-off and decrease in vegetation cover to the benefit of vegetation in clayed depressions receiving run-on water. Thus, even if an overall re-greening trend is observed, contrasted changes may have occurred in the landscape. The woody cover shows the same general behavior: a strong resilience on sandy soils but a decreasing trend over shallow surfaces and more complex variations in the cultivated Fakara. Finally, decreasing trends in Rain Use Efficiency are found for both regions. RUE values are particularly high after the drought, but show smaller and constant values ever since. This study suggests that Sahelian ecosystems are resilient to extreme climatic events such as the 1970-1980's drought, relying on remarkable plant traits (annual type, strong photosynthesis at leaf and canopy level, rapid growth, large seed production and dissemination), but that other causative factors can prevent from a total recovery of vegetation, that induce changes in terrestrial ecosystems.

Causes of the 2011-14 California Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seager, Richard; Hoerling, Martin; Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Lyon, Bradfield; Kumar, Arun; Nakamura, Jennifer; Henderson, Naomi

2015-01-01

The causes of the California drought during November-April winters of 2011/12-2013/14 are analyzed using observations and ensemble simulations with seven atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs. Historically, dry California winters are most commonly associated with a ridge off the west coast but no obvious SST forcing. Wet winters are most commonly associated with a trough off the west coast and an El Nino event. These attributes of dry and wet winters are captured by many of the seven models. According to the models, SST forcing can explain up to a third of California winter precipitation variance. SST forcing was key to sustaining a high pressure ridge over the west coast and suppressing precipitation during the three winters. In 2011/12 this was a response to a La Nina event, whereas in 2012/13 and 2013/14 it appears related to a warm west-cool east tropical Pacific SST pattern. All models contain a mode of variability linking such tropical Pacific SST anomalies to a wave train with a ridge off the North American west coast. This mode explains less variance than ENSO and Pacific decadal variability, and its importance in 2012/13 and 2013/14 was unusual. The models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) project rising greenhouse gases to cause changes in California all-winter precipitation that are very small compared to recent drought anomalies. However, a long-term warming trend likely contributed to surface moisture deficits during the drought. As such, the precipitation deficit during the drought was dominated by natural variability, a conclusion framed by discussion of differences between observed and modeled tropical SST trends.

Combining satellite derived phenology with climate data for climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivits, E.; Cherlet, M.; Tóth, G.; Sommer, S.; Mehl, W.; Vogt, J.; Micale, F.

2012-05-01

The projected influence of climate change on the timing and volume of phytomass production is expected to affect a number of ecosystem services. In order to develop coherent and locally effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, spatially explicit information on the observed changes is needed. Long-term variations of the vegetative growing season in different environmental zones of Europe for 1982-2006 have been derived by analysing time series of GIMMS NDVI data. The associations of phenologically homogenous spatial clusters to time series of temperature and precipitation data were evaluated. North-east Europe showed a trend to an earlier and longer growing season, particularly in the northern Baltic areas. Despite the earlier greening up large areas of Europe exhibited rather stable season length indicating the shift of the entire growing season to an earlier period. The northern Mediterranean displayed a growing season shift towards later dates while some agglomerations of earlier and shorter growing season were also seen. The correlation of phenological time series with climate data shows a cause-and-effect relationship over the semi natural areas consistent with results in literature. Managed ecosystems however appear to have heterogeneous change pattern with less or no correlation to climatic trends. Over these areas climatic trends seemed to overlap in a complex manner with more pronounced effects of local biophysical conditions and/or land management practices. Our results underline the importance of satellite derived phenological observations to explain local nonconformities to climatic trends for climate change impact assessment.

Trends in the Northern-hemisphere Climatologies of Local Wave Activity and Fluxes in a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, S. Y.; Nakamura, N.

2016-12-01

The finite-amplitude local wave activity (LWA) identifies both the locations and magnitudes of anomalous wave events (Huang and Nakamura 2016, JAS), which are often associated with extreme weather conditions such as heat waves and storms at the rim. Variance in LWA in synoptic timescale is well-explained by the wave activity flux variance (i.e. conservative dynamics), while beyond seasonal time scale, the convergence/divergence of wave activity flux is balanced by non-conservative processes (e.g. vertical fluxes of heat and momentum at the surface, mixing, radiative forcing etc.). Analysis of ERA-Interim data during 1979-2015 shows that there is generally an increasing trend in the vertically-integrated interior LWA in Northern Winter, except over Central Pacific and Southern Europe. There is, in contrast, a decreasing trend in LWA in Northern summer, except over the high-latitude oceanic regions and low-latitude continental regions. The trends in the wave activity flux convergence in both seasons are consistent with such observations in LWA except over the Atlantic sector. In this presentation, I will illustrate how the change in circulation in a warming climate is associated with change in spatial distribution and frequency of extreme weather events by comparing the change in wave activity flux vectors with the observed change in LWA climatology. I will also quantify the permanent effect of non-conservative processes in terms of decadal change in eddy-free reference states of zonal wind and temperature (Nakamura and Solomon 2011).

Intra-national variation in trends in overweight and leisure time physical activities in The Netherlands since 1980: stratification according to sex, age and urbanisation degree.

PubMed

Gast, G C M; Gast, G-C M; Frenken, F J M; van Leest, L A T M; Wendel-Vos, G C W; Bemelmans, W J E

2007-03-01

To investigate time trends in overweight and Leisure Time Physical Activities (LTPA) in The Netherlands since 1980. Intra-national differences were examined stratified for sex, age and urbanisation degree. We used a random sample of about 140,000 respondents aged 20-69 years from the Health Interview Survey (Nethhis) and subsequent Permanent Survey on Living Conditions (POLS). Self-reported data on weight and height and demographic characteristics were gathered through interviews (every year) and data on LTPA were collected by self-administered questionnaires (1990-1997, 2001-2004). Linear regression analysis was performed for trend analyses. During 1981-2004, mean body mass index (BMI) increased significantly by 1.0 kg/m(2) (average per year=0.05 kg/m(2)). Trends were similar across sex and different degrees of urbanisation, but varied across age groups. In 20-to 39-year-old women, mean BMI increased by 1.7 kg/m(2), which was more than in older age groups (P

Relationship of gas hydrate concentration to porosity and reflection amplitude in a research well, Mackenzie Delta, Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jin, Y.K.; Lee, M.W.; Collett, T.S.

2002-01-01

Well logs acquired at the Mallik 2L-38 gas hydrate research well. Mackenzie Delta, Canada, reveal a distinct trend showing that the resistivity of gas-hydrate-bearing sediments increases with increases in density porosities. This trend, opposite to the general trend of decrease in resistivity with porosity, implies that gas hydrates are more concentrated in the higher porosity. Using the Mallik 2L-38 well data, a proportional gas hydrate concentration (PGHC) model, which states that the gas hydrate concentration in the sediment's pore space is linearly proportional to porosity, is proposed for the general habitat of gas hydrate in sediments. Anomalous data (less than 6% of the total data) outside the dominant observed trend can be explained by local geological characteristics. The anomalous data analysis indicates that highly concentrated gas-hydrate-bearing layers would be expected where sediments have high proportions of gravel and coarse sand. Using the parameters in the PGHC model determined from resistivity-porosity logs, it is possible to qualitatively predict the degree of reflection amplitude variations in seismic profiles. Moderate-to-strong reflections are expected for the Mallik 2L-38 well. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

PubMed Central

Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

2016-01-01

Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565

Aerosol- and greenhouse gas-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using single-forcing climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotstayn, L. D.; Jeffrey, S. J.; Collier, M. A.; Dravitzki, S. M.; Hirst, A. C.; Syktus, J. I.; Wong, K. K.

2012-07-01

We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model (CSIRO-Mk3.6) to investigate the drivers of trends in summer rainfall and circulation in the vicinity of northern Australia. As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we perform a 10-member 21st century ensemble driven by Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). To investigate the roles of different forcing agents, we also perform multiple 10-member ensembles of historical climate change, which are analysed for the period 1951-2010. The historical runs include ensembles driven by "all forcings" (HIST), all forcings except anthropogenic aerosols (NO_AA) and forcing only from long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGAS). Anthropogenic aerosol-induced effects in a warming climate are calculated from the difference of HIST minus NO_AA. CSIRO-Mk3.6 simulates a strong summer rainfall decrease over north-western Australia (NWA) in RCP4.5, whereas simulated trends in HIST are weakly positive (but insignificant) during 1951-2010. The weak rainfall trends in HIST are due to compensating effects of different forcing agents: there is a significant decrease in GHGAS, offset by an aerosol-induced increase. Observations show a significant increase of summer rainfall over NWA during the last few decades. The large magnitude of the observed NWA rainfall trend is not captured by 440 unforced 60-yr trends calculated from a 500-yr pre-industrial control run, even though the model's decadal variability appears to be realistic. This suggests that the observed trend includes a forced component, despite the fact that the model does not simulate the magnitude of the observed rainfall increase in response to "all forcings" (HIST). We investigate the mechanism of simulated and observed NWA rainfall changes by exploring changes in circulation over the Indo-Pacific region. The key circulation feature associated with the rainfall increase in reanalyses is a lower-tropospheric cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA, which enhances the monsoonal flow. The model shows an aerosol-induced cyclonic circulation trend off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO_AA, whereas GHGAS shows an anticyclonic circulation trend. This explains why the aerosol-induced effect is an increase of rainfall over NWA, and the greenhouse gas-induced effect is of opposite sign. Possible explanations for the cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation trend in HIST minus NO_AA (GHGAS) involve changes in the Walker circulation or the local Hadley circulation. In either case, a plausible atmospheric mechanism is that the circulation anomaly is a Rossby wave response to convective heating anomalies south of the Equator. We also discuss the possible role of air-sea interactions, e.g. an increase (decrease) of sea-surface temperatures off the coast of NWA in HIST minus NO_AA (GHGAS). Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms and the extent to which these are model-dependent. In summary, our results suggest that anthropogenic aerosols may have "masked" greenhouse gas-induced changes in rainfall over NWA and in circulation over the wider Indo-Pacific region. Due to the opposing effects of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols, future trends may be very different from trends observed over the last few decades.

AGN feedback and the origin of the α enhancement in early-type galaxies - insights from the GAEA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Lucia, Gabriella; Fontanot, Fabio; Hirschmann, Michaela

2017-03-01

We take advantage of our recently published model for GAlaxy Evolution and Assembly (GAEA) to study the origin of the observed correlation between [α/Fe] and galaxy stellar mass. In particular, we analyse the role of radio-mode active galactic nuclei (AGN) feedback, which recent work has identified as a crucial ingredient to reproduce observations. In GAEA, this process introduces the observed trend of star formation histories extending over shorter time-scales for more massive galaxies, but does not provide a sufficient condition to reproduce the observed α enhancements of massive galaxies. In the framework of our model, this is possible only by assuming that any residual star formation is truncated for galaxies more massive than 1010.5 M⊙. This results, however, in even shorter star formation time-scales for the most massive galaxies, which translate in total stellar metallicities significantly lower than observed. Our results demonstrate that (I) trends of [α/Fe] ratios cannot be simply converted into relative time-scale indicators; and (II) AGN feedback cannot explain alone the positive correlation between [α/Fe] and galaxy mass/velocity dispersion. Reproducing simultaneously the mass-metallicity relation and the α enhancements observed pose a challenge for hierarchical models, unless more exotic solutions are adopted such as metal-rich winds or a variable initial mass function.

Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice and sea level pressure: anthropogenic or natural variability? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbs, W. R.

2013-12-01

Statistically-significant changes in Antarctic sea ice cover and the overlying atmosphere have been observed over the last 30 years, but there is an open question of whether these changes are due to multi-decadal natural variability or an anthropogenically-forced response. A number of recent papers have shown that the slight increase in total sea ice cover is within the bounds of internal variability exhibited by coupled climate models in the CMIP5 suite. Modelled changes for the same time period generally show a decrease, but again with a magnitude that is within internal variability. However, in contrast to the Arctic, sea ice tends in the Antarctic are spatially highly heterogeneous, and consideration of the total ice cover may mask important regional signals. In this work, a robust ';fingerprinting' approach is used to show that the observed spatial pattern of sea ice trends is in fact outside simulated natural variability in west Antarctic, and furthermore that the CMIP5 models consistently show decreased ice cover in the Ross and Weddell Seas, sectors which in fact have an observed increase in cover. As a first step towards understanding the disagreement between models and observations, modelled sea level pressure trends are analysed using and optimal fingerprinting approach, to identify whether atmospheric deficiencies in the models can explain the model-observation discrepancy.

Sincere, Deceitful, and Ironic Communicative Acts and the Role of the Theory of Mind in Childhood

PubMed Central

Bosco, Francesca M.; Gabbatore, Ilaria

2017-01-01

The aim of the study is to investigate the relationship among age, first- and second-order Theory of Mind and the increasing ability of children to understand and produce different kinds of communicative acts – sincere, ironic, and deceitful communicative acts – expressed through linguistic and extralinguistic expressive means. To communicate means to modify an interlocutor’s mental states (Grice, 1989), and pragmatics studies the inferential processes that are necessary to fill the gap, which often exists in human communication, between the literal meaning of a speaker’s utterance and what the speaker intends to communicate to the interlocutor. We administered brief video-clip stories showing different kinds of pragmatic phenomena – sincere, ironic, and deceitful communicative acts - and first- and second-order ToM tasks, to 120 children, ranging in age from 3 to 8 years. The results showed the existence of a trend of difficulty in children’s ability to deal with both linguistic and extralinguistic pragmatic tasks, from the simplest to the most difficult: sincere, deceitful, and ironic communicative acts. A hierarchical regression analysis indicated that age plays a significant role in explaining children’s performance on each pragmatic task. Furthermore, the hierarchical regression analysis revealed that first-order ToM has a causal role in explaining children’s performance in handling sincere and deceitful speech acts, but not irony. We did not detect any specific role for second-order ToM. Finally, ToM only partially explains the observed increasing trend of difficulty in children’s pragmatic performance: the variance in pragmatic performance explained by ToM increases between sincere and deceitful communicative acts, but not between deceit and irony. The role of inferential ability in explaining the improvement in children’s performance across the pragmatic tasks investigated is discussed. PMID:28194120

Are Binary Separations related to their System Mass?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterzik, M. F.; Durisen, R. H.

2004-08-01

We compile most recent multiplicity fractions and binary separation distributions for different primary masses, including very low-mass and brown dwarf primaries, and compare them with dynamical decay models of small-N clusters. The model predictions are based on detailed numerical calculations of the internal cluster dynamics, as well as on Monte-Carlo methods. Both observations and models reflect the same trends: (1) The multiplicity fraction is an increasing function of the primary mass. (2) The mean binary separations are increasing with the system mass in the sense that very low-mass binaries have average separations around ≈ 4AU, while the binary separation distribution for solar-type primaries peaks at ≈ 40AU. M-type binary systems apparently preferentially populate intermediate separations. Similar specific energy at the time of cluster formation for all cluster masses can possibly explain this trend.

Mean-state SST Response to global warming caused by the ENSO Nonlinearity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohyama, T.; Hartmann, D. L.

2017-12-01

The majority of the models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) exhibit El Niño-like trends under global warming. GFDL-ESM2M, however, is an exception that exhibits a La Niña-like response with strengthened trade winds. Our previous studies have shown that this La Niña-like trend could be a physically consistent warming response, and we proposed the Nonlinear ENSO Warming Suppression (NEWS) mechanism to explain this La Niña-like response to global warming. The most important necessary condition of NEWS is the ENSO skewness (El Niños are stronger than La Niñas). Most CMIP5 models do not reproduce the observed ENSO skewness, while GFDL-ESM2M exhibits the realistic ENSO skewness, which suggests that, despite being in the minority, the La Niña-like trend of GFDL-ESM2M could be a plausible equatorial Pacific response to warming. In this study, we introduce another interesting outlier, MIROC5, which reproduces the observed skewness, yet exhibits an El Niño-like response. By decomposing the source of the ENSO nonlinearity into the following three components: "SST anomalies modulate winds", "winds excite oceanic waves", and "oceanic waves modulate the subsurface temperature", we show that the large inter-model spread of the third component appears to explain the most important cause of the poor reproducibility of the ENSO nonlinearity in CMIP5 models. It is concluded that the change in the response of subsurface temperature to oceanic waves is the primary explanation for the different warming response of GFDL-ESM2M and MIROC5. Our analyses suggest that the difference of the warming response are caused by difference in the climatological thermal stratification. This study may shed new light on the fundamental question of why observed ENSO has a strong skewness and on the implications of this skewed ENSO for the mean-state sea surface temperature response to global warming.

Variability in solar radiation and temperature explains observed patterns and trends in tree growth rates across four tropical forests.

PubMed

Dong, Shirley Xiaobi; Davies, Stuart J; Ashton, Peter S; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Supardi, M N Nur; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Tan, Sylvester; Moorcroft, Paul R

2012-10-07

The response of tropical forests to global climate variability and change remains poorly understood. Results from long-term studies of permanent forest plots have reported different, and in some cases opposing trends in tropical forest dynamics. In this study, we examined changes in tree growth rates at four long-term permanent tropical forest research plots in relation to variation in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Temporal variation in the stand-level growth rates measured at five-year intervals was found to be positively correlated with variation in incoming solar radiation and negatively related to temporal variation in night-time temperatures. Taken alone, neither solar radiation variability nor the effects of night-time temperatures can account for the observed temporal variation in tree growth rates across sites, but when considered together, these two climate variables account for most of the observed temporal variability in tree growth rates. Further analysis indicates that the stand-level response is primarily driven by the responses of smaller-sized trees (less than 20 cm in diameter). The combined temperature and radiation responses identified in this study provide a potential explanation for the conflicting patterns in tree growth rates found in previous studies.

HRD Trends Worldwide: Shared Solutions To Compete in a Global Economy. Improving Human Performance Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Jack J.

This book, which is intended for individuals involved in developing, delivering, and supporting human resource development (HRD) programs, discusses worldwide HRD trends that were identified in a study of the HRD practices in 35 countries. Chapter 1 discusses the importance of the HRD trends identified and explains how they were identified.…

Homogeneity testing of the global ESA CCI multi-satellite soil moisture climate data record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preimesberger, Wolfgang; Su, Chun-Hsu; Gruber, Alexander; Dorigo, Wouter

2017-04-01

ESA's Climate Change Initiative (CCI) creates a global, long-term data record by merging multiple available earth observation products with the goal to provide a product for climate studies, trend analysis, and risk assessments. The blending of soil moisture (SM) time series derived from different active and passive remote sensing instruments with varying sensor characteristics, such as microwave frequency, signal polarization or radiometric accuracy, could potentially lead to inhomogeneities in the merged long-term data series, undercutting the usefulness of the product. To detect the spatio-temporal extent of contiguous periods without inhomogeneities as well as subsequently minimizing their negative impact on the data records, different relative homogeneity tests (namely Fligner-Killeen test of homogeneity of variances and Wilcoxon rank-sums test) are implemented and tested on the combined active-passive ESA CCI SM data set. Inhomogeneities are detected by comparing the data against reference data from in-situ data from ISMN, and model-based estimates from GLDAS-Noah and MERRA-Land. Inhomogeneity testing is performed over the ESA CCI SM data time frame of 38 years (from 1978 to 2015), on a global quarter-degree grid and with regard to six alterations in the combination of observation systems used in the data blending process. This study describes and explains observed variations in the spatial and temporal patterns of inhomogeneities in the combined products. Besides we proposes methodologies for measuring and reducing the impact of inhomogeneities on trends derived from the ESA CCI SM data set, and suggest the use of inhomogeneity-corrected data for future trend studies. This study is supported by the European Union's FP7 EartH2Observe "Global Earth Observation for Integrated Water Resource Assessment" project (grant agreement number 331 603608).

Ion Thermal Decoupling and Species Separation in Shock-Driven Implosions

DOE PAGES

Rinderknecht, Hans G.; Rosenberg, M. J.; Li, C. K.; ...

2015-01-14

Here, anomalous reduction of the fusion yields by 50% and anomalous scaling of the burn-averaged ion temperatures with the ion-species fraction has been observed for the first time in D 3He-filled shock-driven inertial confinement fusion implosions. Two ion kinetic mechanisms are used to explain the anomalous observations: thermal decoupling of the D and 3He populations and diffusive species separation. The observed insensitivity of ion temperature to a varying deuterium fraction is shown to be a signature of ion thermal decoupling in shock-heated plasmas. The burn-averaged deuterium fraction calculated from the experimental data demonstrates a reduction in the average core deuteriummore » density, as predicted by simulations that use a diffusion model. Accounting for each of these effects in simulations reproduces the observed yield trends.« less

Extreme floods in central Europe over the past 500 years: Role of cyclone pathway ``Zugstrasse Vb''

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mudelsee, M.; BöRngen, M.; Tetzlaff, G.; Grünewald, U.

2004-12-01

Anthropogenically induced climate change has been hypothesized to add to the risk of extreme river floods because a warmer atmosphere can carry more water. In the case of the central European rivers Elbe and Oder, another possibility that has been considered is a more frequent occurrence of a weather situation of the type "Zugstrasse Vb," where a low-pressure system travels from the Adriatic region northeastward, carrying moist air and bringing orographic rainfall in the mountainous catchment areas (Erzgebirge, Sudeten, and Beskids). Analysis of long, homogeneous records of past floods allows us to test such ideas. M. Mudelsee and co-workers recently presented flood records for the middle parts of the Elbe and Oder, which go continuously back to A.D. 1021 and A.D. 1269, respectively. Here we review the reconstruction and assess the data quality of the records, which are based on combining documentary data from the interval up to 1850 and measurements thereafter, finding both the Elbe and Oder records to provide reliable information on heavy floods at least since A.D. 1500. We explain that the statistical method of kernel occurrence rate estimation can overcome deficiencies of techniques previously used to investigate trends in the occurrence of climatic extremes, because it (1) allows nonmonotonic trends, (2) imposes no parametric restrictions, and (3) provides confidence bands, which are essential for evaluating whether observed trends are real or came by chance into the data. We further give a hypothesis test that can be used to evaluate monotonic trends. On the basis of these data and methods, we find for both the Elbe and Oder rivers (1) significant downward trends in winter flood risk during the twentieth century, (2) no significant trends in summer flood risk in the twentieth century, and (3) significant variations in flood risk during past centuries, with notable differences between the Elbe and Oder. The observed trends are shown to be both robust against data uncertainties and only slightly sensitive to land use changes or river engineering, lending support for climatic influences on flood occurrence rate. In the case of winter floods, regional warming during the twentieth century has likely reduced winter flood risk via a reduced rate of strong river freezing (breaking ice at the end of winter may function as a water barrier and enhance a high water stage severely). In the case of summer floods, correlation analysis shows a significant, but weak, relation between flood occurrence and meridional airflow, compatible with a "Zugstrasse Vb" weather situation. The weakness of this relation, together with the uncertainty about whether this weather situation became more frequent, explains the absence of trends in summer flood risk for the Elbe and Oder in the twentieth century. We finally draw conclusions about flood disaster management and modeling of flood occurrence under a changed climate.

The Active Structure of the Greater Dead Sea Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamir, G.

2002-12-01

The Greater Dead Sea Basin (GDSB) is a 220km long depression situated along the southern section of the Dead Sea Transform (DST), between two structurally and gravitationally elevated points, Wadi Malih in the north and Paran fault zone in the south. In its center is the Dead Sea basin 'sensu strictu' (DSB), which has been described since the 1970s as a pull-apart basin at a left step-over along the DST. However, several observations, or their lack thereof, contradict this scheme, e.g. (i) It is not supported by recent seismological and geomorphic data; (ii) It does not explain the fault pattern and mixed sinistral and dextral offset along the DSB western boundary; (iii) It does not simply explain the presence of intense deformation outside the presumed fault step zone; (iv) It is inconsistent with the orientation of seismically active faults within the Dead Sea and Jericho Valley; (v) The length of the DSB exceeds the total offset along the Dead Sea Transform, while its subsidence is about the age of the DST. In this study, newly acquired and analyzed data (high resolution seismic reflection and earthquake relocation and fault plane solutions) has been integrated with previously published data (structural mapping, fracture orientation distribution, Bouguer anomaly maps, sinkhole distribution, geomorphic lineaments). The results show that the GDSB is dominated by two active fault systems, one trending NNE and showing normal-dextral motion, the other trending NW. These systems are identified by earthquake activity, seismic reflection observations, alignment of recent sinkholes, and distribution of Bouguer anomaly gradients. As a result, the intra-basin structure is of a series of rectangular blocks. The dextral slip component along NNE trending faults, the mixed sense of lateral offset along the western boundary of the DSB and temporal change in fracture orientation in the Jericho Valley suggest that the intra-basin blocks have rotated counterclockwise since the Pleistocene. The overall sinistral motion between the Arabian and Israel-Sinai plates along the GDSB may thus be accommodated by the postulated, internally rotating shear zone. Then, the subsidence of the DSB may possibly be explained if the rate of the resulting internal E-W shortening is greater than the rate of plate convergence.

Trends in hazardous trace metal concentrations in aerosols collected in Beijing, China from 2001 to 2006.

PubMed

Okuda, Tomoaki; Katsuno, Masayuki; Naoi, Daisuke; Nakao, Shunsuke; Tanaka, Shigeru; He, Kebin; Ma, Yongliang; Lei, Yu; Jia, Yingtao

2008-06-01

Daily observations of hazardous trace metal concentrations in aerosols in Beijing, China were made in the period from 2001 to 2006. We considered coal combustion as a major source of some anthropogenic metals by achieving a correlation analysis and by investigating enrichment factors and relative composition of metals. A possible extra source of some specific metals, such as Cu and Sb, was brake abrasion particles, however, we did not think the transport-related particle was a major source for the hazardous anthropogenic metals even though they could originate from vehicle exhaust and brake/tire abrasion particles. A time-trend model was used to describe temporal variations of chemical constituent concentrations during the five-year period. Several crustal elements, such as Al, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, and Co, did not show clear increases, with annual rates of change of -15.2% to 3.6%. On the other hand, serious increasing trends were noted from several hazardous trace metals. Cu, Zn, As, Cd, and Pb, which are derived mainly from anthropogenic sources, such as coal combustion, showed higher annual rate of change (4.9-19.8%, p<0.001) according to the regression model. In particular, the Cd and Pb concentrations increased remarkably. We hypothesize that the trend towards increasing concentrations of metals in the air reflects a change that has occurred in the process of burning coal, whereby the use of higher temperatures for coal combustion has resulted in increased emissions of these metals. The increasing use of low-rank coal may also explain the observed trends. In addition, nonferrous metal smelters are considered as a potential, albeit minor, reason for the increasing atmospheric concentrations of anthropogenic hazardous metals in Beijing city.

Is the Pearl River basin, China, drying or wetting? Seasonal variations, causes and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Li, Jianfeng; Gu, Xihui; Shi, Peijun

2018-07-01

Soil moisture plays crucial roles in the hydrological cycle and is also a critical link between land surface and atmosphere. The Pearl River basin (PRb) is climatically subtropical and tropical and is highly sensitive to climate changes. In this study, seasonal soil moisture changes across the PRb were analyzed using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model forced by the gridded 0.5° × 0.5° climatic observations. Seasonal changes of soil moisture in both space and time were investigated using the Mann-Kendall trend test method. Potential influencing factors behind seasonal soil moisture changes such as precipitation and temperature were identified using the Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) technique. The results indicated that: (1) VIC model performs well in describing changing properties of soil moisture across the PRb; (2) Distinctly different seasonal features of soil moisture can be observed. Soil moisture in spring decreased from east to west parts of the PRb. In summer however, soil moisture was higher in east and west parts but was lower in central parts of the PRb; (3) A significant drying trend was identified over the PRb in autumn, while no significant drying trends can be detected in other seasons; (4) The increase/decrease in precipitation can generally explain the wetting/drying tendency of soil moisture. However, warming temperature contributed significantly to the drying trends and these drying trends were particularly evident during autumn and winter; (5) Significant decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature combined to trigger substantially decreasing soil moisture in autumn. In winter, warming temperature is the major reason behind decreased soil moisture although precipitation is in slightly decreasing tendency. Season variations of soil moisture and related implications for hydro-meteorological processes in the subtropical and tropical river basins over the globe should arouse considerable human concerns.

Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland 1991-2011 (II): policy, social norms, the alcohol market, clinical changes and a synthesis.

PubMed

McCartney, G; Bouttell, J; Craig, N; Craig, P; Graham, L; Lakha, F; Lewsey, J; McAdams, R; MacPherson, M; Minton, J; Parkinson, J; Robinson, M; Shipton, D; Taulbut, M; Walsh, D; Beeston, C

2016-03-01

To provide a basis for evaluating post-2007 alcohol policy in Scotland, this paper tests the extent to which pre-2007 policy, the alcohol market, culture or clinical changes might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality outcomes in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W). Rapid literature reviews, descriptive analysis of routine data and narrative synthesis. We assessed the impact of pre-2007 Scottish policy and policy in the comparison areas in relation to the literature on effective alcohol policy. Rapid literature reviews were conducted to assess cultural changes and the potential role of substitution effects between alcohol and illicit drugs. The availability of alcohol was assessed by examining the trends in the number of alcohol outlets over time. The impact of clinical changes was assessed in consultation with key informants. The impact of all the identified factors were then summarised and synthesised narratively. The companion paper showed that part of the rise and fall in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland, and part of the differing trend to E&W, were predicted by a model linking income trends and alcohol-related mortality. Lagged effects from historical deindustrialisation and socio-economic changes exposures also remain plausible from the available data. This paper shows that policy differences or changes prior to 2007 are unlikely to have been important in explaining the trends. There is some evidence that aspects of alcohol culture in Scotland may be different (more concentrated and home drinking) but it seems unlikely that this has been an important driver of the trends or the differences with E&W other than through interaction with changing incomes and lagged socio-economic effects. Substitution effects with illicit drugs and clinical changes are unlikely to have substantially changed alcohol-related harms: however, the increase in alcohol availability across the UK is likely to partly explain the rise in alcohol-related mortality during the 1990s. Future policy should ensure that alcohol affordability and availability, as well as socio-economic inequality, are reduced, in order to maintain downward trends in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Airborne spectrophotometry of Comet Halley from 5 to 9 microns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campins, H.; Bregman, J. D.; Witteborn, F. C.; Wooden, D. H.; Rank, D. M.; Cohen, M.; Allamandola, Louis J.; Tielens, Alexander G. G. M.

1986-01-01

Spectrophotometry from 5 to 9 microns (resolution = 0.02) of comet Halley was obtained from the Kuiper Airborne Observatory on 1985 Dec. 12.1 and 1986 April 8.6 and 10.5 UT. Two spectral features are apparent in all the observations, one from 5.24 to 5.6 microns, and the silicate emission feature which has an onset between 7 and 8 microns. There is no evidence for the 7.5 microns feature observed by the Vega 1 spacecraft; the large difference between the areal coverage viewed from the spacecraft and the airplane may explain the discrepancy. Color temperatures significantly higher than a blackbody indicate that small particles are abundant in the coma. Significant spatial and temporal variations in the spectrum show trends similar to those observed from the ground.

Reduced methane growth rate explained by decreased Northern Hemisphere microbial sources.

PubMed

Kai, Fuu Ming; Tyler, Stanley C; Randerson, James T; Blake, Donald R

2011-08-10

Atmospheric methane (CH(4)) increased through much of the twentieth century, but this trend gradually weakened until a stable state was temporarily reached around the turn of the millennium, after which levels increased once more. The reasons for the slowdown are incompletely understood, with past work identifying changes in fossil fuel, wetland and agricultural sources and hydroxyl (OH) sinks as important causal factors. Here we show that the late-twentieth-century changes in the CH(4) growth rates are best explained by reduced microbial sources in the Northern Hemisphere. Our results, based on synchronous time series of atmospheric CH(4) mixing and (13)C/(12)C ratios and a two-box atmospheric model, indicate that the evolution of the mixing ratio requires no significant change in Southern Hemisphere sources between 1984 and 2005. Observed changes in the interhemispheric difference of (13)C effectively exclude reduced fossil fuel emissions as the primary cause of the slowdown. The (13)C observations are consistent with long-term reductions in agricultural emissions or another microbial source within the Northern Hemisphere. Approximately half (51 ± 18%) of the decrease in Northern Hemisphere CH(4) emissions can be explained by reduced emissions from rice agriculture in Asia over the past three decades associated with increases in fertilizer application and reductions in water use.

Climatology of atmospheric PM10 concentration in the Po Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigi, A.; Ghermandi, G.

2014-01-01

The limits to atmospheric pollutant concentration set by the European Commission provide a challenging target for the municipalities in the Po Valley, because of the characteristic climatic conditions and high population density of this region. In order to assess climatology and trends in the concentration of atmospheric particles in the Po Valley, a dataset of PM10 data from 41 sites across the Po Valley have been analysed, including both traffic and background sites (either urban, suburban or rural). Of these 41 sites, 18 with 10 yr or longer record have been analysed for long term trend in de-seasonalized monthly means, in annual quantiles and in monthly frequency distribution. A widespread significant decreasing trend has been observed at most sites, up to few percent per year, by Generalised Least Square and Theil-Sen method. All 41 sites have been tested for significant weekly periodicity by Kruskal-Wallis test for mean anomalies and by Wilcoxon test for weekend effect magnitude. A significant weekly periodicity has been observed for most PM10 series, particularly in summer and ascribed mainly to anthropic particulate emissions. A cluster analysis has been applied in order to highlight stations sharing similar pollution conditions over the reference period. Five clusters have been found, two gathering the metropolitan areas of Torino and Milano and their respective nearby sites and the other three clusters gathering north-east, north-west and central Po Valley sites respectively. Finally the observed trends in atmospheric PM10 have been compared to trends in provincial emissions of particulates and PM precursors, and analysed along with data on vehicular fleet age, composition and fuel sales. Significant basin-wide drop in emissions occurred for gaseous pollutants, contrarily to emissions of PM10 and PM2.5, whose drop resulted low and restricted to few provinces. It is not clear whether the decrease for only gaseous emissions is sufficient to explain the observed drop in atmospheric PM10, or if the low drop in particulate emissions is indeed due to the uncertainty in the emission inventory data for this species.

Initiation and evolution of the Oligo-Miocene rift basins of southwestern Europe: Contribution of deep seismic reflection profiling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bois, C.

1993-11-01

Southwestern European Oligo-Miocene rift basins have recently been investigated by deep seismic reflection profiling. The study of these data, together with other geophysical and geological data, shows that the rifts, which run from the Rhinegraben to the western Mediterranean, do not form a single clearcut system. The N-trending rifts (Rhinegraben, Bresse and Limagne) were developed on a cold and rigid lithosphere affected by the Alpine collision. The NE-trending rifts (southeastern France, Gulf of Lions and Valencia Trough) were formed slightly later in a backarc basin associated with an active segment of the European-Iberian plate that was heated, affected by widespread calcalkaline volcanism and probably weakened. All the southwestern European rifts and basins together may, however, be related to a common heritage represented by the boundary between the European-Iberian and African-Apulian plates that was created in the Jurassic with the initiation of the Tethys Ocean. The present features of the southwestern European Oligo-Miocène rift basins may be explained by a combination of three geodynamic mechanisms: mechanical stretching of the lithosphere, active mantle uplifting, and subordinate lithospheric flexuring. All the rifts were probably initiated by passive stretching. A systematic discrepancy between stretching derived from fault analysis and attenuation of the crust has been observed in all the rifts. This suggests that these rifts were subsequently reworked by one or several active mantle upwelling events associated with late shoulder uplift, asthenosphere upwelling and anomalous P-wave velocities in the lowermost crust and the uppermost mantle. Crustal attenuation may have been achieved by mantle intrusion, metamorphism of the deep crust and/or its delamination. Some of the rifts were affected by lithospheric flexuring. Combinations, in various proportions, of a small number of geodynamic mechanisms probably controlled many basins in the world. This explains the unique characteristics of each basin, difficulties in basin classification and the frequent failure of single-mechanism models to explain the geological observations.

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

2017-04-01

Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological effects, has been developed in order to a) investigate if trends are masked by meteorological variability and b) to understand which part of the observed trends is meteorology driven. By correlating short-term variation of ozone, as obtained from the EEMD, with the corresponding short-term variation of relevant meteorological parameters, we subtract the variation of ozone concentrations that is related to the meteorological effects explained by the GAM. We find that higher frequency meteorological correction reduces further the uncertainty in trend estimation by a small factor. In addition, the seasonal variability of ozone as obtained from the EEMD has been studied in more detail for possible changes in its behavior. A shortening of the seasonal cycle was observed, i.e. reduction of maximum and in-crease of minimum concentration per year, while the occurrence of maximum is shifted to earlier times during a year. In summary, we present a sophisticated and consistent approach for detecting and categorizing trends and meteorological influences on ozone concentrations in long-term measurements across Europe.

Thermoluminescence and the shock and reheating history of meteorites. III - The shergottites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hasan, F. A.; Haq, M.; Sears, D. W. G.

1986-01-01

Thermoluminescence (TL) measurements on Shergotty, ALHA 77005, Zagami, and EETA 79001 (lithology A) have been used to obtain further information on the shock history of these meteorites. The level of TL sensitivity in the shergottites varied by a factor of 10, but was always low, probably reflecting the amount of crystalline material in the maskelynite. There are trends in the TL peak temperature, peak width, and TL sensitivity which are believed to be associated with different proportions of feldspar in high- and low-temperature forms. This interpretation is consistent with the observed changes induced in the TL properties by annealing shergottites at 400-900 C. It is suggested that the observed trends were produced during postshock crystallization at a variety of cooling rates, the increasing order of cooling rate being EETA 79001, Zagami, ALHA 77005, and Shergotty, and that there is high-temperature feldspar present in all the samples. This implies a postshock temperature above 600 C, and a small (less than 10 m) size of the ejecta. Current theories are well able to explain how objects of this size could have been ejected from Mars.

Abrupt Decline in the Arctic Winter Sea Ice Cover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2007-01-01

Maximum ice extents in the Arctic in 2005 and 2006 have been observed to be significantly lower (by about 6%) than the average of those of previous years starting in 1979. Since the winter maxima had been relatively stable with the trend being only about -1.5% per decade (compared to about -10% per decade for the perennial ice area), this is a significant development since signals from greenhouse warming are expected to be most prominent in winter. Negative ice anomalies are shown to be dominant in 2005 and 2006 especially in the Arctic basin and correlated with winds and surface temperature anomalies during the same period. Progressively increasing winter temperatures in the central Arctic starting in 1997 is observed with significantly higher rates of increase in 2005 and 2006. The Atlantic Oscillation (AO) indices correlate weakly with the sea ice and surface temperature anomaly data but may explain the recent shift in the perennial ice cover towards the western region. Results suggest that the trend in winter ice is finally in the process of catching up with that of the summer ice cover.

Ceramic micro-injection molded nozzles for serial femtosecond crystallography sample delivery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beyerlein, K. R.; Adriano, L.; Heymann, M.

Serial femtosecond crystallography (SFX) using X-ray Free-Electron Lasers (XFELs) allows for room temperature protein structure determination without evidence of conventional radiation damage. In this method, a liquid suspension of protein microcrystals can be delivered to the X-ray beam in vacuum as a micro-jet, which replenishes the crystals at a rate that exceeds the current XFEL pulse repetition rate. Gas dynamic virtual nozzles produce the required micrometer-sized streams by the focusing action of a coaxial sheath gas and have been shown to be effective for SFX experiments. Here, we describe the design and characterization of such nozzles assembled from ceramic micro-injectionmore » molded outer gas-focusing capillaries. Trends of the emitted jet diameter and jet length as a function of supplied liquid and gas flow rates are measured by a fast imaging system. The observed trends are explained by derived relationships considering choked gas flow and liquidflow conservation. In conclusion, the performance of these nozzles in a SFX experiment is presented, including an analysis of the observed background.« less

Ceramic micro-injection molded nozzles for serial femtosecond crystallography sample delivery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beyerlein, K. R.; Heymann, M.; Kirian, R.

Serial femtosecond crystallography (SFX) using X-ray Free-Electron Lasers (XFELs) allows for room temperature protein structure determination without evidence of conventional radiation damage. In this method, a liquid suspension of protein microcrystals can be delivered to the X-ray beam in vacuum as a micro-jet, which replenishes the crystals at a rate that exceeds the current XFEL pulse repetition rate. Gas dynamic virtual nozzles produce the required micrometer-sized streams by the focusing action of a coaxial sheath gas and have been shown to be effective for SFX experiments. Here, we describe the design and characterization of such nozzles assembled from ceramic micro-injectionmore » molded outer gas-focusing capillaries. Trends of the emitted jet diameter and jet length as a function of supplied liquid and gas flow rates are measured by a fast imaging system. The observed trends are explained by derived relationships considering choked gas flow and liquid flow conservation. Finally, the performance of these nozzles in a SFX experiment is presented, including an analysis of the observed background.« less

Ceramic micro-injection molded nozzles for serial femtosecond crystallography sample delivery

DOE PAGES

Beyerlein, K. R.; Adriano, L.; Heymann, M.; ...

2015-12-08

Serial femtosecond crystallography (SFX) using X-ray Free-Electron Lasers (XFELs) allows for room temperature protein structure determination without evidence of conventional radiation damage. In this method, a liquid suspension of protein microcrystals can be delivered to the X-ray beam in vacuum as a micro-jet, which replenishes the crystals at a rate that exceeds the current XFEL pulse repetition rate. Gas dynamic virtual nozzles produce the required micrometer-sized streams by the focusing action of a coaxial sheath gas and have been shown to be effective for SFX experiments. Here, we describe the design and characterization of such nozzles assembled from ceramic micro-injectionmore » molded outer gas-focusing capillaries. Trends of the emitted jet diameter and jet length as a function of supplied liquid and gas flow rates are measured by a fast imaging system. The observed trends are explained by derived relationships considering choked gas flow and liquidflow conservation. In conclusion, the performance of these nozzles in a SFX experiment is presented, including an analysis of the observed background.« less

Evaluation of 11 terrestrial carbon–nitrogen cycle models against observations from two temperate Free-Air CO2 Enrichment studies

PubMed Central

Zaehle, Sönke; Medlyn, Belinda E; De Kauwe, Martin G; Walker, Anthony P; Dietze, Michael C; Hickler, Thomas; Luo, Yiqi; Wang, Ying-Ping; El-Masri, Bassil; Thornton, Peter; Jain, Atul; Wang, Shusen; Warlind, David; Weng, Ensheng; Parton, William; Iversen, Colleen M; Gallet-Budynek, Anne; McCarthy, Heather; Finzi, Adrien; Hanson, Paul J; Prentice, I Colin; Oren, Ram; Norby, Richard J

2014-01-01

We analysed the responses of 11 ecosystem models to elevated atmospheric [CO2] (eCO2) at two temperate forest ecosystems (Duke and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments) to test alternative representations of carbon (C)–nitrogen (N) cycle processes. We decomposed the model responses into component processes affecting the response to eCO2 and confronted these with observations from the FACE experiments. Most of the models reproduced the observed initial enhancement of net primary production (NPP) at both sites, but none was able to simulate both the sustained 10-yr enhancement at Duke and the declining response at ORNL: models generally showed signs of progressive N limitation as a result of lower than observed plant N uptake. Nonetheless, many models showed qualitative agreement with observed component processes. The results suggest that improved representation of above-ground–below-ground interactions and better constraints on plant stoichiometry are important for a predictive understanding of eCO2 effects. Improved accuracy of soil organic matter inventories is pivotal to reduce uncertainty in the observed C–N budgets. The two FACE experiments are insufficient to fully constrain terrestrial responses to eCO2, given the complexity of factors leading to the observed diverging trends, and the consequential inability of the models to explain these trends. Nevertheless, the ecosystem models were able to capture important features of the experiments, lending some support to their projections. PMID:24467623

Environmental Effects on the Metallicities of Early-Type Galaxies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Christine; Oliversen, Ronald (Technical Monitor)

2004-01-01

We completed and published two papers in the Astrophysical Journal based on research from grant. In the first paper we analyzed nine X-ray-bright Virgo early-type galaxies observed by both ASCA and ROSAT. Through spatially resolved spectroscopy, we determined the radial temperature profiles and abundances of Mg, Si, and Fe for six galaxies. The temperature profiles are consistent with isothermal temperatures outside of cooler regions at the galaxies' centers. We present new evidence for iron abundance gradients in NGC 4472 and NGC 4649 and confirm the previous results on NGC 4636. Mg and Si abundance gradients on average are flatter than those of iron and correspond to an underabundance of α-process elements at high Fe values, while at low iron the element ratios favor enrichment by Type II supernovae (SNe). We explain the observed trend using the metallicity dependence of SN Ia metal production and present constraints on the available theoretical modeling for low-metallicity inhibition of SNe Ia. In the second paper We analyzed nine X-ray-bright Virgo early-type galaxies observed by both ASCA and ROSAT. Through spatially resolved spectroscopy, we determined the radial temperature profiles and abundances of Mg, Si, and Fe for six galaxies. The temperature profiles are consistent with isothermal temperatures outside of cooler regions at the galaxies' centers. We present new evidence for iron abundance gradients in NGC 4472 and NGC 4649 and confirm the previous results on NGC 4636. Mg and Si abundance gradients on average are flatter than those of iron and correspond to an underabundance of α-process elements at high Fe values, while at low iron the element ratios favor enrichment by Type I1 supernovae (SNe). We explain the observed trend using the metallicity dependence of SN Ia metal production and present constraints on the available theoretical modeling for low-metallicity inhibition of SNe Ia.

Ecstasy Use among U.S. Adolescents from 1999 to 2008

PubMed Central

Wu, Ping; Liu, Xinhua; Pham, Trang Hoang; Jin, Jue; Fan, Bin; Jin, Zhezhen

2010-01-01

Aims To investigate trends in rates of ecstasy use among US adolescents from 1999 to 2008, and to examine the associations between the major sociodemographic factors, especially gender, and ecstasy use, during this period. Methods The adolescent subsamples (ages 12–17) from the 1999–2008 NHSDA/NSDUH surveys were used for the current study. Data from adolescents’ self–reports on use of ecstasy and of other drugs, as well as sociodemographic characteristics, were used in the analyses. Results There was an increasing trend in adolescent ecstasy use from 1999 to 2002, which was followed by a decreasing trend from 2002 to 2005, and a slight rise from 2005 to 2008. In contrast to some other drugs, ecstasy was more likely to be used by girls than by boys. This gender difference persisted over the 10-year period and could not be explained by other demographic factors. Conclusion Given the known health consequences of ecstasy use, especially for females, the observed gender difference in adolescent ecstasy use should be taken into account by drug prevention and intervention programs. PMID:20570447

Trends and interannual variability of mass and steric sea level in the Tropical Asian Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleinherenbrink, Marcel; Riva, Riccardo; Frederikse, Thomas; Merrifield, Mark; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-08-01

The mass and steric components of sea level changes have been separated in the Tropical Asian Seas (TAS) using a statistically optimal combination of Jason satellite altimetry, GRACE satellite gravimetry, and ocean reanalyses. Using observational uncertainties, statistically optimally weighted time series for both components have been obtained in four regions within the TAS over the period January 2005 to December 2012. The mass and steric sea level variability is regressed with the first two principal components (PC1&2) of Pacific equatorial wind stress and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). Sea level in the South China Sea is not affected by any of the indices. Steric variability in the TAS is largest in the deep Banda and Celebes seas and is affected by both PCs and the DMI. Mass variability is largest on the continental shelves, which is primarily controlled by PC1. We argue that a water flux from the Western Tropical Pacific Ocean is the cause for mass variability in the TAS. The steric trends are about 2 mm yr-1 larger than the mass trends in the TAS. A significant part of the mass trend can be explained by the aforementioned indices and the nodal cycle. Trends obtained from fingerprints of mass redistribution are statistically equal to mass trends after subtracting the nodal cycle and the indices. Ultimately, the effect of omitting the TAS in global sea level budgets is estimated to be 0.3 mm yr-1.

Dynamical Models of Elliptical Galaxies in z = 0.5 Clusters. I. Data-Model Comparison and Evolution of Galaxy Rotation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Marel, Roeland P.; van Dokkum, Pieter G.

2007-10-01

We present spatially resolved stellar rotation velocity and velocity dispersion profiles from Keck/LRIS absorption-line spectra for 25 galaxies, mostly visually classified ellipticals, in three clusters at z~0.5. We interpret the kinematical data and HST photometry using oblate axisymmetric two-integral f(E,Lz) dynamical models based on the Jeans equations. This yields good fits, provided that the seeing and observational characteristics are carefully modeled. The fits yield for each galaxy the dynamical mass-to-light ratio (M/L) and a measure of the galaxy rotation rate. Paper II addresses the implied M/L evolution. Here we study the rotation-rate evolution by comparison to a sample of local elliptical galaxies of similar present-day luminosity. The brightest galaxies in the sample all rotate too slowly to account for their flattening, as is also observed at z=0. But the average rotation rate is higher at z~0.5 than locally. This may be due to a higher fraction of misclassified S0 galaxies (although this effect is insufficient to explain the observed strong evolution of the cluster S0 fraction with redshift). Alternatively, dry mergers between early-type galaxies may have decreased the average rotation rate over time. It is unclear whether such mergers are numerous enough in clusters to explain the observed trend quantitatively. Disk-disk mergers may affect the comparison through the so-called ``progenitor bias,'' but this cannot explain the direction of the observed rotation-rate evolution. Additional samples are needed to constrain possible environmental dependencies and cosmic variance in galaxy rotation rates. Either way, studies of the internal stellar dynamics of distant galaxies provide a valuable new approach for exploring galaxy evolution.

The Properties of Faint Field Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Driver, Simon. P.

1994-12-01

One of the current drawbacks of Charge Coupled Devices (CCDs) is their restrictive fields of view. The Hitchhiker CCD camera overcomes this limitation by operating in parallel with existing instrumentation and is able to cover a large area as well as large volumes. Hitchhiker is mounted on the 4.2m William Herschel Telescope and has been operating for two years. The first use of the Hitchhiker data set has been to study the general properties of faint galaxies. The observed trend of how the differential numbers of galaxies vary with magnitude agrees extremely well with those of other groups and covers, for the first time, all four major optical bandpasses. This multi-band capability has also allowed the study of how the colors of galaxies change with magnitude and how the correlation of galaxies on the sky varies between the optical bandpasses. A dwarf dominated model has been developed to explain these observations and challenges our knowledge of the space-density of dwarf galaxies. The model demonstrates that a simple upward turn in the luminosity distribution of galaxies, similar to that observed in clusters, would remain undetected by the field surveys yet can explain many of the observations without recourse to non-passive galaxy evolution. The conclusion is that the field luminosity distribution is not constrained at faint absolute magnitudes. A combination of a high density of dwarf galaxies and mild evolution could explain all the observations. Continuing work with HST and the Medium Deep Survey Team now reveals the morphological mix of galaxies down to mI ~ 24.0. The results confirm that ellipticals and early-type spirals are well fitted by standard no-evolution models whilst the late-type spirals can only be fitted by strong evolution and/or a significant turn-up in the local field LF.

Seventeen-year time trend in poor self-rated health in older adults: changing contributions of chronic diseases and disability.

PubMed

Galenkamp, Henrike; Braam, Arjan W; Huisman, Martijn; Deeg, Dorly J H

2013-06-01

Studies on trends in the self-rated health (SRH) of older people have shown conflicting results, which might partly be explained by changing associations between SRH and indicators of other health dimensions over time. Therefore, this study investigates 17-year time trends in older adults' poor SRH, in the context of trends in chronic diseases and disability, between 1992 and 2009. Data originate from six measurement waves of the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (N = 4009, ages 60-85 years). SRH was assessed with the question 'How is your health in general?' The presence of lung disease, cardiac disease, peripheral arterial disease, diabetes mellitus, stroke, arthritis and cancer was assessed by self-report. Two severity levels of disability were assessed with six questions on physical functioning. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) analysis was applied to assess statistical significance in each time trend. There was a stable trend in the prevalence of poor SRH and severe disability, while the mean number of chronic diseases (1.3-1.8) and the prevalence of mild disability (20.5-32.1%) increased between 1992 and 2009. The association between poor SRH and chronic diseases became weaker, whereas the association between poor SRH and severe disability became stronger over time. Most unfavourable trends were observed in the older old and the lower educated. Our results suggest that the seeming stability of poor SRH hides underlying increases in chronic diseases and disability: over time, people may attach importance to different aspects of health when rating their overall health.

Excess of non-verbal cases of autism spectrum disorders presenting to orthodox clinical practice in Africa – a trend possibly resulting from late diagnosis and intervention

PubMed Central

Bakare, Muideen O; Munir, Kerim M

2012-01-01

Objectives Characteristics of children with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) in Africa are not known because of unavailability of large-scale epidemiological studies in this region. This review explored the age at first presentation to orthodox clinical practice of African children with ASDs and their expressive language ability at presentation. Methods A literature search of case series and case reports of ASDs from Africa was done through PubMed/MEDLINE, Google Scholar, African Journals Online (AJOL), and archives of the Nigerian Journal of Psychiatry. Six articles included content relating to age of the child at first presentation to orthodox clinical practice and symptoms at presentation related to expressive language ability and therefore fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Suggestions are made to explain the observations emanating from the review. Results An excess of non-verbal over verbal cases of ASDs have been presenting to orthodox clinical practice and there is a common denominator of late presentation/diagnosis and in turn late intervention, with most cases presenting for the first time well above 8 years of age. Attempts to explain these observations included low levels of knowledge and awareness about ASDs in Africa; problems with help-seeking behaviour; and lack of mental healthcare facilities and trained personnel. Conclusions Enhancement of processes directed at ensuring early diagnosis and interventions, especially interventions aimed at improving speech and language development well and sufficiently early, may bring about a shift in the trend of excess non-verbal cases of ASDs over verbal cases presenting to orthodox clinical practice. PMID:22229024

Historical analysis of interannual rainfall variability and trends in southeastern Brazil based on observational and remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vásquez P., Isela L.; de Araujo, Lígia Maria Nascimento; Molion, Luiz Carlos Baldicero; de Araujo Abdalad, Mariana; Moreira, Daniel Medeiros; Sanchez, Arturo; Barbosa, Humberto Alves; Rotunno Filho, Otto Corrêa

2018-02-01

The Brazilian Southeast is considered a humid region. It is also prone to landslides and floods, a result of significant increases in rainfall during spring and summer caused by the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Recently, however, the region has faced a striking rainfall shortage, raising serious concerns regarding water availability. The present work endeavored to explain the meteorological drought that has led to hydrological imbalance and water scarcity in the region. Hodrick-Prescott smoothing and wavelet transform techniques were applied to long-term hydrologic and sea surface temperature (SST)—based climate indices monthly time series data in an attempt to detect cycles and trends that could help explain rainfall patterns and define a framework for improving the predictability of extreme events in the region. Historical observational hydrologic datasets available include monthly precipitation amounts gauged since 1888 and 1940 and stream flow measured since the 1930s. The spatial representativeness of rain gauges was tested against gridded rainfall satellite estimates from 2000 to 2015. The analyses revealed variability in four time scale domains—infra-annual, interannual, quasi-decadal and inter-decadal or multi-decadal. The strongest oscillations periods revealed were: for precipitation—8 months, 2, 8 and 32 years; for Pacific SST in the Niño-3.4 region—6 months, 2, 8 and 35.6 years, for North Atlantic SST variability—6 months, 2, 8 and 32 years and for Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index—6.19 months, 2.04, 8.35 and 27.31 years. Other periodicities less prominent but still statistically significant were also highlighted.

Explaining trends in coronary heart disease mortality in different socioeconomic groups in Denmark 1991-2007 using the IMPACTSEC model

PubMed Central

Joergensen, Torben; Bandosz, Piotr; Hallas, Jesper; Prescott, Eva Irene Bossano; Capewell, Simon

2018-01-01

Aim To quantify the contribution of changes in different risk factors population levels and treatment uptake on the decline in CHD mortality in Denmark from 1991 to 2007 in different socioeconomic groups. Design We used IMPACTSEC, a previously validated policy model using data from different population registries. Participants All adults aged 25–84 years living in Denmark in 1991 and 2007. Main outcome measure Deaths prevented or postponed (DPP). Results There were approximately 11,000 fewer CHD deaths in Denmark in 2007 than would be expected if the 1991 mortality rates had persisted. Higher mortality rates were observed in the lowest socioeconomic quintile. The highest absolute reduction in CHD mortality was seen in this group but the highest relative reduction was in the most affluent socioeconomic quintile. Overall, the IMPACTSEC model explained nearly two thirds of the decline in. Improved treatments accounted for approximately 25% with the least relative mortality reduction in the most deprived quintile. Risk factor improvements accounted for approximately 40% of the mortality decrease with similar gains across all socio-economic groups. The 36% gap in explaining all DPPs may reflect inaccurate data or risk factors not quantified in the current model. Conclusions According to the IMPACTSEC model, the largest contribution to the CHD mortality decline in Denmark from 1991 to 2007 was from improvements in risk factors, with similar gains across all socio-economic groups. However, we found a clear socioeconomic trend for the treatment contribution favouring the most affluent groups. PMID:29672537

Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

PubMed

Yeh, Jennifer M; Hur, Chin; Schrag, Deb; Kuntz, Karen M; Ezzati, Majid; Stout, Natasha; Ward, Zachary; Goldie, Sue J

2013-01-01

Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men, <3% discrepancy from national statistics. H. pylori and smoking trends combined accounted for 47% (range = 30%-58%) of the observed decline. With no tobacco control, incidence would have declined only 56%, suggesting that lower smoking initiation and higher cessation rates observed after the 1960s accelerated the relative decline in cancer incidence by 7% (range = 0%-21%). With continued risk factor trends, incidence is projected to decline an additional 47% between 2008 and 2040, the majority of which will be attributable to H. pylori and smoking (81%; range = 61%-100%). Limitations include assuming all other risk factors influenced gastric carcinogenesis as one factor and restricting the analysis to men. Trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and are projected to continue. Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, full benefits will take decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and reduction of H. pylori should be priorities for gastric cancer control efforts.

Urine sodium excretion increased slightly among U.S. adults between 1988 and 2010.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, Christine M; Hughes, Jeffery P; Cogswell, Mary E; Burt, Vicki L; Lacher, David A; Lavoie, Donna J; Rabinowitz, Daniel J; Johnson, Clifford L; Pirkle, James L

2014-05-01

Little information is available on temporal trends in sodium intake in the U.S. population using urine sodium excretion as a biomarker. Our aim was to assess 1988-2010 trends in estimated 24-h urine sodium (24hUNa) excretion among U.S. adults (age 20-59 y) participating in the cross-sectional NHANES. We used subsamples from a 1988-1994 convenience sample, a 2003-2006 one-third random sample, and a 2010 one-third random sample to comply with resource constraints. We estimated 24hUNa excretion from measured sodium concentrations in spot urine samples by use of calibration equations (for men and women) derived from the International Cooperative Study on Salt, Other Factors, and Blood Pressure study. Estimated 24hUNa excretion increased over the 20-y period [1988-1994, 2003-2006, and 2010; means ± SEMs (n): 3160 ± 38.4 mg/d (1249), 3290 ± 29.4 mg/d (1235), and 3290 ± 44.4 mg/d (525), respectively; P-trend = 0.022]. We observed significantly higher mean estimated 24hUNa excretion in each survey period (P < 0.001) for men compared with women (31-33%) and for persons with a higher body mass index (BMI; 32-35% for obese vs. normal weight) or blood pressure (17-26% for hypertensive vs. normal blood pressure). After adjusting for age, sex, and race-ethnicity, temporal trends in mean estimated 24hUNa excretion remained significant (P-trend = 0.004). We observed no temporal trends in mean estimated 24hUNa excretion among BMI subgroups, nor after adjusting for BMI. Although several limitations apply to this analysis (the use of a convenience sample in 1988-1994 and using estimated 24hUNa excretion as a biomarker of sodium intake), these first NHANES data suggest that mean estimated 24hUNa excretion increased slightly in U.S. adults over the past 2 decades, and this increase may be explained by a shift in the distribution of BMI.

Simulated high-latitude soil thermal dynamics during the past four decades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peng, S.; Ciais, P.; Wang, T.; Gouttevin, I.; McGuire, A.D.; Lawrence, D.; Burke, E.; Chen, X.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; MacDougall, A.; Rinke, A.; Saito, K.; Zhang, W.; Alkama, R.; Bohn, T. J.; Decharme, B.; Hajima, T.; Ji, D.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Miller, P.A.; Moore, J.C.; Smith, B.; Sueyoshi, T.

2015-01-01

Soil temperature (Ts ) change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. On seasonal and inter-annual time scales, the variability of Ts determines the active layer depth, which regulates hydrological soil properties and biogeochemical processes. On the multi-decadal scale, increasing T 5 s not only drives permafrost thaw/retreat, but can also trigger and accelerate the decomposition of soil organic carbon. The magnitude of permafrost carbon feedbacks is thus closely linked to the rate of change of soil thermal regimes. In this study, we used nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, all forced by different observation-based climate forcing during the period 1960–2000, to characterize the warming rate of Ts 10 in permafrost regions. There is a large spread of Ts trends at 20 cm depth across the models, with trend values ranging from 0.010 ± 0.003 to 0.031 ± 0.005 ◦C yr−1 . Most models show smaller increase in Ts with increasing depth. Air temperature (Ta ) and longwave downward radiation (LWDR) are the main drivers of Ts trends, but their relative contributions differ 15 amongst the models. Different trends of LWDR used in the forcing of models can explain 61 % of their differences in Ts trends, while trends of Ta only explain 5 % of the differences in Ts trends. Uncertain climate forcing contributes a larger uncertainty in Ts trends (0.021 ± 0.008 ◦C yr−1 , mean ± SD) than the uncertainty of model structure (0.012 ± 0.001 ◦C yr−1 ), diagnosed from the range of response between different mod- 20 els, normalized to the same forcing. In addition, the loss rate of near-surface permafrost area, defined as total area where the maximum seasonal active layer thickness (ALT) is less than 3 m loss rate is found to be significantly correlated with the magnitude of the trends of Ts at 1 m depth across the models (R = −0.85, P = 0.003), but not with the initial total near-surface permafrost area (R = −0.30, P = 0.438). The sensitivity of the total boreal near-surface permafrost area to T 25 s at 1 m, is estimated to be of −2.80 ± 0.67 million km2 ◦C −1 . Finally, by using two long-term LWDR datasets and relationships between trends of LWDR and Ts across models, we infer an observationconstrained total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000. This corresponds to 9– 18 % degradation of the current permafrost area.

The Great Lakes' regional climate regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, Noriyuki

For the last couple of decades, the Great Lakes have undergone rapid surface warming. In particular, the magnitude of the summer surface-warming trends of the Great Lakes have been much greater than those of surrounding land (Austin and Colman, 2007). Among the Great Lakes, the deepest Lake Superior exhibited the strongest warming trend in its annual, as well as summer surface water temperature. We find that many aspects of this behavior can be explained in terms of the tendency of deep lakes to exhibit multiple regimes characterized, under the same seasonally varying forcing, by the warmer and colder seasonal cycles exhibiting different amounts of wintertime lake-ice cover and corresponding changes in the summertime lake-surface temperatures. In this thesis, we address the problem of the Great Lakes' warming using one-dimensional lake modeling to interpret diverse observations of the recent lake behavior. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

Recent Changes in Global Photosynthesis and Terrestrial Ecosystem Respiration Constrained From Multiple Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wei; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Yilong; Yin, Yi; Peng, Shushi; Zhu, Zaichun; Bastos, Ana; Yue, Chao; Ballantyne, Ashley P.; Broquet, Grégoire; Canadell, Josep G.; Cescatti, Alessandro; Chen, Chi; Cooper, Leila; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Le Quéré, Corinne; Myneni, Ranga B.; Piao, Shilong

2018-01-01

To assess global carbon cycle variability, we decompose the net land carbon sink into the sum of gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER), and fire emissions and apply a Bayesian framework to constrain these fluxes between 1980 and 2014. The constrained GPP and TER fluxes show an increasing trend of only half of the prior trend simulated by models. From the optimization, we infer that TER increased in parallel with GPP from 1980 to 1990, but then stalled during the cooler periods, in 1990-1994 coincident with the Pinatubo eruption, and during the recent warming hiatus period. After each of these TER stalling periods, TER is found to increase faster than GPP, explaining a relative reduction of the net land sink. These results shed light on decadal variations of GPP and TER and suggest that they exhibit different responses to temperature anomalies over the last 35 years.

Variability of Solar Radiation under Cloud-Free Skies in China: The Role of Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Qian, Yun; Wang, Weiguo; Leung, L. ruby; Kaiser, Dale P.

2007-01-01

In this study, we analyzed long-term surface global and diffuse solar radiation, aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA), and relative humidity (RH) from China. Our analysis reveals that much of China experienced significant decreases in global solar radiation (GSR) and increases in diffuse solar radiation under cloud-free skies between the 1960s and 1980s. With RH and aerosol SSA being rather constant during that time period, we suggest that the increasing aerosol loading from emission of pollutants is responsible for the observed reduced GSR and increased diffuse radiation in cloud-free skies. Although pollutant emissions continue to increase after the 1980s, the increment of aerosol SSA since 1980s can partly explain the transition of GSR from a decreasing trend to no apparent trend around that time. Preliminary analysis is also provided on the potential role of RH in affecting the global and diffuse solar radiation reaching the earth surface.

Changing Climate and Overgrazing Are Decimating Mongolian Steppes

PubMed Central

Liu, Yi Y.; Evans, Jason P.; McCabe, Matthew F.; de Jeu, Richard A. M.; van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Dolman, Albertus J.; Saizen, Izuru

2013-01-01

Satellite observations identify the Mongolian steppes as a hotspot of global biomass reduction, the extent of which is comparable with tropical rainforest deforestation. To conserve or restore these grasslands, the relative contributions of climate and human activities to degradation need to be understood. Here we use a recently developed 21-year (1988–2008) record of satellite based vegetation optical depth (VOD, a proxy for vegetation water content and aboveground biomass), to show that nearly all steppe grasslands in Mongolia experienced significant decreases in VOD. Approximately 60% of the VOD declines can be directly explained by variations in rainfall and surface temperature. After removing these climate induced influences, a significant decreasing trend still persists in the VOD residuals across regions of Mongolia. Correlations in spatial patterns and temporal trends suggest that a marked increase in goat density with associated grazing pressures and wild fires are the most likely non-climatic factors behind grassland degradation. PMID:23451249

Dynamical and Thermodynamic Elements of Modeled Climate Change at the East African Margin of Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannini, Alessandra; Lyon, Bradfield; Seager, Richard; Vigaud, Nicolas

2018-01-01

We propose a dynamical interpretation of model projections for an end-of-century wetting in equatorial East Africa. In the current generation of global climate models, increased atmospheric moisture content associated with warming is not the dominant process explaining the increase in rainfall, as the regional circulation is only weakly convergent even during the rainy seasons. Instead, projected wetter future conditions are generally consistent with the El Niño-like trend in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in climate models. In addition, a weakening in moisture convergence over the adjacent Congo Basin and Maritime Continent cores of convection results in the weakening of near-surface winds, which increases moisture advection from the Congo Basin core toward the East African margin. Overall confidence in the projections is limited by the significant biases in simulation of the regional climatology and disagreement between observed and modeled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature trends to date.

Changing climate and overgrazing are decimating Mongolian steppes.

PubMed

Liu, Yi Y; Evans, Jason P; McCabe, Matthew F; de Jeu, Richard A M; van Dijk, Albert I J M; Dolman, Albertus J; Saizen, Izuru

2013-01-01

Satellite observations identify the Mongolian steppes as a hotspot of global biomass reduction, the extent of which is comparable with tropical rainforest deforestation. To conserve or restore these grasslands, the relative contributions of climate and human activities to degradation need to be understood. Here we use a recently developed 21-year (1988-2008) record of satellite based vegetation optical depth (VOD, a proxy for vegetation water content and aboveground biomass), to show that nearly all steppe grasslands in Mongolia experienced significant decreases in VOD. Approximately 60% of the VOD declines can be directly explained by variations in rainfall and surface temperature. After removing these climate induced influences, a significant decreasing trend still persists in the VOD residuals across regions of Mongolia. Correlations in spatial patterns and temporal trends suggest that a marked increase in goat density with associated grazing pressures and wild fires are the most likely non-climatic factors behind grassland degradation.

Joint variability of global runoff and global sea surface temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2008-01-01

Global land surface runoff and sea surface temperatures (SST) are analyzed to identify the primary modes of variability of these hydroclimatic data for the period 1905-2002. A monthly water-balance model first is used with global monthly temperature and precipitation data to compute time series of annual gridded runoff for the analysis period. The annual runoff time series data are combined with gridded annual sea surface temperature data, and the combined dataset is subjected to a principal components analysis (PCA) to identify the primary modes of variability. The first three components from the PCA explain 29% of the total variability in the combined runoff/SST dataset. The first component explains 15% of the total variance and primarily represents long-term trends in the data. The long-term trends in SSTs are evident as warming in all of the oceans. The associated long-term trends in runoff suggest increasing flows for parts of North America, South America, Eurasia, and Australia; decreasing runoff is most notable in western Africa. The second principal component explains 9% of the total variance and reflects variability of the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its associated influence on global annual runoff patterns. The third component explains 5% of the total variance and indicates a response of global annual runoff to variability in North Aflantic SSTs. The association between runoff and North Atlantic SSTs may explain an apparent steplike change in runoff that occurred around 1970 for a number of continental regions.

Changes in Examination Performance in English Secondary Schools over the Course of a Decade: Searching for Patterns and Trends over Time

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mangan, Jean; Pugh, Geoff; Gray, John

2005-01-01

The article explores changes in the examination performance of a random sample of 500 English secondary schools between 1992 and 2001. Using econometric methods, it concludes that: there is an overall deterministic trend in school performance but it is not stable, making prediction accuracy poor; the aggregate trend does not explain improvement…

Trends in the Mincerian Rates of Return to Education in Urban China: 1989-2009

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xiaohao, Ding; Suhong, Yang; Ha, Wei

2013-01-01

This study examines the trends in the Mincerian rates of return (MRRs) to education in urban China between 1989 and 2009 using two sources of data: the China Urban Household Survey and the China Health and Nutrition Survey, and attempts to explain the underlying causes of the trends. The authors find that while the rates of return to education had…

Spatial and temporal trends of selected trace elements in liver tissue from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Alaska, Canada and Greenland.

PubMed

Routti, Heli; Letcher, Robert J; Born, Erik W; Branigan, Marsha; Dietz, Rune; Evans, Thomas J; Fisk, Aaron T; Peacock, Elizabeth; Sonne, Christian

2011-08-01

Spatial trends and comparative changes in time of selected trace elements were studied in liver tissue from polar bears from ten different subpopulation locations in Alaska, Canadian Arctic and East Greenland. For nine of the trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mn, Pb, Rb, Se and Zn) spatial trends were investigated in 136 specimens sampled during 2005-2008 from bears from these ten subpopulations. Concentrations of Hg, Se and As were highest in the (northern and southern) Beaufort Sea area and lowest in (western and southern) Hudson Bay area and Chukchi/Bering Sea. In contrast, concentrations of Cd showed an increasing trend from east to west. Minor or no spatial trends were observed for Cu, Mn, Rb and Zn. Spatial trends were in agreement with previous studies, possibly explained by natural phenomena. To assess temporal changes of Cd, Hg, Se and Zn concentrations during the last decades, we compared our results to previously published data. These time comparisons suggested recent Hg increase in East Greenland polar bears. This may be related to Hg emissions and/or climate-induced changes in Hg cycles or changes in the polar bear food web related to global warming. Also, Hg:Se molar ratio has increased in East Greenland polar bears, which suggests there may be an increased risk for Hg(2+)-mediated toxicity. Since the underlying reasons for spatial trends or changes in time of trace elements in the Arctic are still largely unknown, future studies should focus on the role of changing climate and trace metal emissions on geographical and temporal trends of trace elements.

Spatial and temporal trends of selected trace elements in liver tissue from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Alaska, Canada and Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Routti, H.; Letcher, R.J.; Born, E.W.; Branigan, M.; Dietz, R.; Evans, T.J.; Fisk, A.T.; Peacock, E.; Sonne, C.

2011-01-01

Spatial trends and comparative changes in time of selected trace elements were studied in liver tissue from polar bears from ten different subpopulation locations in Alaska, Canadian Arctic and East Greenland. For nine of the trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Mn, Pb, Rb, Se and Zn) spatial trends were investigated in 136 specimens sampled during 2005-2008 from bears from these ten subpopulations. Concentrations of Hg, Se and As were highest in the (northern and southern) Beaufort Sea area and lowest in (western and southern) Hudson Bay area and Chukchi/Bering Sea. In contrast, concentrations of Cd showed an increasing trend from east to west. Minor or no spatial trends were observed for Cu, Mn, Rb and Zn. Spatial trends were in agreement with previous studies, possibly explained by natural phenomena. To assess temporal changes of Cd, Hg, Se and Zn concentrations during the last decades, we compared our results to previously published data. These time comparisons suggested recent Hg increase in East Greenland polar bears. This may be related to Hg emissions and/or climate-induced changes in Hg cycles or changes in the polar bear food web related to global warming. Also, Hg:Se molar ratio has increased in East Greenland polar bears, which suggests there may be an increased risk for Hg 2+-mediated toxicity. Since the underlying reasons for spatial trends or changes in time of trace elements in the Arctic are still largely unknown, future studies should focus on the role of changing climate and trace metal emissions on geographical and temporal trends of trace elements. ?? 2011 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

Decreasing Fires in Mediterranean Europe

PubMed Central

Turco, Marco; Bedia, Joaquín; Di Liberto, Fabrizio; Fiorucci, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Koutsias, Nikos; Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Xystrakis, Fotios; Provenzale, Antonello

2016-01-01

Forest fires are a serious environmental hazard in southern Europe. Quantitative assessment of recent trends in fire statistics is important for assessing the possible shifts induced by climate and other environmental/socioeconomic changes in this area. Here we analyse recent fire trends in Portugal, Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece, building on a homogenized fire database integrating official fire statistics provided by several national/EU agencies. During the period 1985-2011, the total annual burned area (BA) displayed a general decreasing trend, with the exception of Portugal, where a heterogeneous signal was found. Considering all countries globally, we found that BA decreased by about 3020 km2 over the 27-year-long study period (i.e. about -66% of the mean historical value). These results are consistent with those obtained on longer time scales when data were available, also yielding predominantly negative trends in Spain and France (1974-2011) and a mixed trend in Portugal (1980-2011). Similar overall results were found for the annual number of fires (NF), which globally decreased by about 12600 in the study period (about -59%), except for Spain where, excluding the provinces along the Mediterranean coast, an upward trend was found for the longer period. We argue that the negative trends can be explained, at least in part, by an increased effort in fire management and prevention after the big fires of the 1980’s, while positive trends may be related to recent socioeconomic transformations leading to more hazardous landscape configurations, as well as to the observed warming of recent decades. We stress the importance of fire data homogenization prior to analysis, in order to alleviate spurious effects associated with non-stationarities in the data due to temporal variations in fire detection efforts. PMID:26982584

Decreasing Fires in Mediterranean Europe.

PubMed

Turco, Marco; Bedia, Joaquín; Di Liberto, Fabrizio; Fiorucci, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Koutsias, Nikos; Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Xystrakis, Fotios; Provenzale, Antonello

2016-01-01

Forest fires are a serious environmental hazard in southern Europe. Quantitative assessment of recent trends in fire statistics is important for assessing the possible shifts induced by climate and other environmental/socioeconomic changes in this area. Here we analyse recent fire trends in Portugal, Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece, building on a homogenized fire database integrating official fire statistics provided by several national/EU agencies. During the period 1985-2011, the total annual burned area (BA) displayed a general decreasing trend, with the exception of Portugal, where a heterogeneous signal was found. Considering all countries globally, we found that BA decreased by about 3020 km2 over the 27-year-long study period (i.e. about -66% of the mean historical value). These results are consistent with those obtained on longer time scales when data were available, also yielding predominantly negative trends in Spain and France (1974-2011) and a mixed trend in Portugal (1980-2011). Similar overall results were found for the annual number of fires (NF), which globally decreased by about 12600 in the study period (about -59%), except for Spain where, excluding the provinces along the Mediterranean coast, an upward trend was found for the longer period. We argue that the negative trends can be explained, at least in part, by an increased effort in fire management and prevention after the big fires of the 1980's, while positive trends may be related to recent socioeconomic transformations leading to more hazardous landscape configurations, as well as to the observed warming of recent decades. We stress the importance of fire data homogenization prior to analysis, in order to alleviate spurious effects associated with non-stationarities in the data due to temporal variations in fire detection efforts.

Contribution of changing risk factors to the trend in breech presentation at term.

PubMed

Bin, Yu Sun; Roberts, Christine L; Nicholl, Michael C; Nassar, Natasha; Ford, Jane B

2016-12-01

Recent population-wide changes in perinatal risk factors may affect rates of breech presentation at birth, and have implications for the provision of breech services and training in breech management. To investigate whether changes in maternal and pregnancy characteristics explain the observed trend in breech presentation at term. All singleton term (≥37 week) births in New South Wales during 2002-2012 were identified through birth and associated hospital records. Annual rates of breech presentation were determined. Logistic regression modelling was used to predict expected rates of breech presentation and these were compared with observed rates over time. A priori predictors included maternal age, country of birth, parity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, pregnancy hypertension, placenta praevia, previous singleton term breech, previous caesarean section, infant sex, gestational age, birthweight and congenital anomalies. Hospital and Medicare data were used to assess concomitant trends in external cephalic version. Among 914 147 singleton term births, 3.1% were breech at delivery. Rates of breech presentation declined from 3.6% in 2002 to 2.7% in 2012 (test for trend P < 0.001), but was predicted to increase from 3.6% in 2002 to 4.3% in 2012 because of increased maternal age, nulliparity, maternal diabetes, history of breech presentation and previous caesarean section. However, use of external cephalic version appears to have increased over time. Breech presentation at delivery has decreased in New South Wales. Increased use of external cephalic version likely accounts for this decline, as changes in risk factors do not. © 2016 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Seasonal and annual trends in forage fish mercury concentrations, San Francisco Bay.

PubMed

Greenfield, Ben K; Melwani, Aroon R; Allen, Rachel M; Slotton, Darell G; Ayers, Shaun M; Harrold, Katherine H; Ridolfi, Katherine; Jahn, Andrew; Grenier, J Letitia; Sandheinrich, Mark B

2013-02-01

San Francisco Bay is contaminated by mercury (Hg) due to historic and ongoing sources, and has elevated Hg concentrations throughout the aquatic food web. We monitored Hg in forage fish to indicate seasonal and interannual variations and trends. Interannual variation and long-term trends were determined by monitoring Hg bioaccumulation during September-November, for topsmelt (Atherinops affinis) and Mississippi silverside (Menidia audens) at six sites, over six years (2005 to 2010). Seasonal variation was characterized for arrow goby (Clevelandia ios) at one site, topsmelt at six sites, and Mississippi silverside at nine sites. Arrow goby exhibited a consistent seasonal pattern from 2008 to 2010, with lowest concentrations observed in late spring, and highest concentrations in late summer or early fall. In contrast, topsmelt concentrations tended to peak in late winter or early spring and silverside seasonal fluctuations varied among sites. The seasonal patterns may relate to seasonal shifts in net MeHg production in the contrasting habitats of the species. Topsmelt exhibited an increase in Alviso Slough from 2005 to 2010, possibly related to recent hypoxia in that site. Otherwise, directional trends for Hg in forage fish were not observed. For topsmelt and silverside, the variability explained by year was relatively low compared to sampling station, suggesting that interannual variation is not a strong influence on Hg concentrations. Although fish Hg has shown long-term declines in some ecosystems around the world, San Francisco Bay forage fish did not decline over the six-year monitoring period examined. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Differences between Men and Women in Time Trends in Lung Cancer Mortality in Spain (1980-2013).

PubMed

Martín-Sánchez, Juan Carlos; Clèries, Ramon; Lidón-Moyano, Cristina; González-de Paz, Luis; Martínez-Sánchez, Jose M

2016-06-01

The main risk factor for lung cancer is smoking, a habit that varies according to age and sex. The objective of this study was to explore trends in lung cancer mortality by sex and age from 1980 to 2013 in Spain. We used lung cancer mortality (International Classification of Diseases code 162 for the 9th edition, and codes C33 and C34 for 10th edition) and population data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Crude, truncated, age-adjusted mortality and age-specific mortality rates were assessed through joinpoint regression to estimate the annual percent change (APC). Age-adjusted mortality rate significantly increased from 1980 to 1991 among men (APC=3.12%) and significantly decreased between 2001 and 2013 (APC=-1.53%), a similar pattern was observed in age-specific rates. Among women, age-adjusted mortality rate increased from 1989 (APC 1989-1997=1.82%), with the greatest increase observed from 1997 until the end of the study in 2013 (APC=4.41%). Diverging trends in the prevalence of smoking could explain the increase in the rate of lung cancer-related mortality among Spanish women since the early 1990s. Public health policies should be implemented to reduce tobacco consumption in women and halt the increase in lung cancer mortality. Copyright © 2016 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Stature and robusticity during the agricultural transition: evidence from the bioarchaeological record.

PubMed

Mummert, Amanda; Esche, Emily; Robinson, Joshua; Armelagos, George J

2011-07-01

The population explosion that followed the Neolithic revolution was initially explained by improved health experiences for agriculturalists. However, empirical studies of societies shifting subsistence from foraging to primary food production have found evidence for deteriorating health from an increase in infectious and dental disease and a rise in nutritional deficiencies. In Paleopathology at the Origins of Agriculture (Cohen and Armelagos, 1984), this trend towards declining health was observed for 19 of 21 societies undergoing the agricultural transformation. The counterintuitive increase in nutritional diseases resulted from seasonal hunger, reliance on single crops deficient in essential nutrients, crop blights, social inequalities, and trade. In this study, we examined the evidence of stature reduction in studies since 1984 to evaluate if the trend towards decreased health after agricultural transitions remains. The trend towards a decrease in adult height and a general reduction of overall health during times of subsistence change remains valid, with the majority of studies finding stature to decline as the reliance on agriculture increased. The impact of agriculture, accompanied by increasing population density and a rise in infectious disease, was observed to decrease stature in populations from across the entire globe and regardless of the temporal period during which agriculture was adopted, including Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, South America, and North America. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increase of surface solar irradiance across East China related to changes in aerosol properties during the past decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jing; Jiang, Yiwei; Xia, Xiangao; Hu, Yongyun

2018-03-01

Previously, it was widely documented that an overall decrease in surface solar radiation occurred in China at least until 2005, in contrast to the general background of ‘global brightening’. Increased anthropogenic aerosol emissions were speculated to be the source of the reduction. In this study, we extend the trend analysis to the most recent decade from 2005-2015 and find that surface solar radiation has shifted from ‘dimming’ to ‘brightening’ over East China, with the largest increase over the northeast and southeast parts. Meanwhile, satellite and ground observation both indicate a reduction in aerosol optical depth (AOD) during the same period, whereas no significant trends in cloud amount show up. Detailed analysis using co-located radiation and aerosol observation at the XiangHe station in North China suggests that both AOD and single scattering albedo (SSA) changes contribute to the radiation trends. AOD reduction contributes to the increase of direct solar radiation, also decreasing the diffuse radiation, while the increase of SSA serves to increase the diffuse fraction. Simple calculations using a radiative transfer model confirm that the two effects combined explain changes in the global solar radiation and its components effectively. Our results have implications for potential climate effects with the reduction of China’s aerosol emissions, and the necessity to monitor aerosol composition in addition to its loading.

New Trends in Facility Asset Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adams, Matt

2000-01-01

Explains new, positive trends in facility asset management that encompasses greater acceptance and involvement of facility managers in the financial planning process, greater awareness of the need for maintenance, and facility administrators taking a greater role with business officers. The new climate for alternative renewal financing proposals…

Heat and salt budgets over the Gulf Stream North Wall during LatMix survey in winter 2012.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Rios, A.; Shearman, R. K.; D'Asaro, E. A.; Lee, C.; Gula, J.; Klymak, J. M.

2016-02-01

As part of the ONR-sponsored LatMix Experiment, ship-based and glider-based observations following a Lagrangian float are used to examine the evolution of temperature, salinity and density along the Gulf Stream north wall in wintertime. Satellite observations during the survey and the in-situ measurements showed the presence of submesoscale (<10 km) features along the front. Models have successfully reproduced similar features, but observations are lacking, particularly at the small scales needed to understand their role in the transport of heat and salt across the front and out of the mixed layer. Calculating the trend in time at each depth and cross-front location we found an increase of heat and salinity in regions where the strongest cross-front gradients of velocity were observed at the mixed layer and around 150m depth, these changes are density compensated and suggest isopycnal mixing and a connection between the mixed layer and subsurface layers. The large Rossby number (Ro>1) calculated for this regions corroborates the possibility of submesoscale dynamics. Using a heat and salinity budget, we show that surface forcing, entrainment from below and advection by the mean flow velocities are not sufficient to explain the observed rate of change of heat and salinity in the mixed layer. Although confidence estimates prevent an accurate flux divergence calculation, Reynold flux estimates are consistent with a cross-frontal exchange that can reproduce the observed temporal trends.

Trends in adolescent mental health during economic upturns and downturns: a multilevel analysis of Swedish data 1988-2008

PubMed Central

Kim, Yunhwan; Hagquist, Curt

2018-01-01

Background A long-term trend of increasing mental health problems among adolescents in many Western countries indicates a great need to investigate if and how societal changes have contributed to the reported increase. Using seven waves of repeated cross-sectional data collected between 1988 and 2008 in Sweden, the current study examined if economic factors at the societal level (municipality unemployment rate) and at the individual level (worry about family finances), and their interaction could explain a secular trend in mental health problems. Methods Participants were 17 533 students of age 15–16 years (49.3% girls), from 14 municipalities in a county of Sweden. Data on adolescents’ mental health (psychosomatic problems) and worry about family finances were obtained using a self-report questionnaire. A series of multilevel regression analyses were conducted in order to explain the trends in adolescents’ mental health. Results The results indicated that the individual-level predictor (worry about family finances) significantly explained the increasing rates of adolescents’ psychosomatic problems. This was particularly the case during the mid-1990s, which was characterised by a severe recession in Sweden with high unemployment rates. For example, after accounting for adolescents’ worry, a significant increase in psychosomatic symptoms between 1988 and 1998 among girls (b=0.112, P<0.05) disappeared (b=0.018, P>0.05) and a non-significant decrease between 1988 and 1995 among boys (b=−0.017, P>0.05) became significant (b=−0.142, P<0.05). Neither municipality unemployment rate nor its interaction with adolescents’ worry explained psychosomatic problems. Conclusions The findings demonstrate the effects of adolescents’ worry about family finances on a secular trend in mental health problems during an economically bleak period of time. The study highlights the need for repeated measurements including a large number of time points over a long time period in order to analyse time-specific putative explanatory factors for trends in adolescent mental health problems. PMID:29203524

Trends in pesticide concentrations and use for major rivers of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Gilliom, Robert J.

2015-01-01

Pesticides strongly dominated by agricultural use (cyanazine, alachlor, atrazine and its degradate deethylatrazine, metolachlor, and carbofuran) had widespread agreement between concentration trends and use trends. Pesticides with substantial use in both agricultural and nonagricultural applications (simazine, chlorpyrifos, malathion, diazinon, and carbaryl) had concentration trends that were mostly explained by a combination of agricultural-use trends, regulatory changes, and urban use changes inferred from concentration trends in urban streams. When there were differences, concentration trends usually were greater than use trends (increased more or decreased less). These differences may occur because of such factors as unaccounted pesticide uses, delayed transport to the river through groundwater, greater uncertainty in the use data, or unquantified land use and management practice changes.

[Trends of Tobacco and Alcohol Consumption over 65 Years in Germany].

PubMed

John, Ulrich; Hanke, Monika

2018-02-01

No estimation was available for tobacco and for alcohol consumption in Germany based on sales data that were provided for public use and suited for time trend analysis. To estimate trends of tobacco and alcohol consumption rates for the years 1950-2014. Data on tobacco and alcohol consumption in the nation were retrieved from reports made by producers of beer, wine, or spirits to the Federal Statistics Office of Germany. Time trends over the 65 years were calculated using the program Joinpoint. Tobacco consumption rose from 1950 to 1972. Thereafter it decreased, mostly by 1.2-6.9 percentage points per year. Alcohol consumption rose until the year 1974 and decreased thereafter by 1.0 percentage points annually until the end of the time period under analysis in 2014. The findings may be explained, among others, by changes of social norms according to smoking and alcohol consumption after tax increases, nonsmoker and youth protection laws, and legislative measures against driving under the influence of alcohol. A steepening of the decrease in tobacco consumption occurred after laws including tax increases had come into effect. However, the tobacco and alcohol consumption levels were still high at the end of the observation period in 2014. Eigentümer und Copyright ©Georg Thieme Verlag KG 2018.

Modelled interglacial carbon cycle dynamics during the Holocene, the Eemian and Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleinen, Thomas; Brovkin, Victor; Munhoven, Guy

2016-11-01

Trends in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 during three recent interglacials - the Holocene, the Eemian and Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 - are investigated using an earth system model of intermediate complexity, which we extended with process-based modules to consider two slow carbon cycle processes - peat accumulation and shallow-water CaCO3 sedimentation (coral reef formation). For all three interglacials, model simulations considering peat accumulation and shallow-water CaCO3 sedimentation substantially improve the agreement between model results and ice core CO2 reconstructions in comparison to a carbon cycle set-up neglecting these processes. This enables us to model the trends in atmospheric CO2, with modelled trends similar to the ice core data, forcing the model only with orbital and sea level changes. During the Holocene, anthropogenic CO2 emissions are required to match the observed rise in atmospheric CO2 after 3 ka BP but are not relevant before this time. Our model experiments show a considerable improvement in the modelled CO2 trends by the inclusion of the slow carbon cycle processes, allowing us to explain the CO2 evolution during the Holocene and two recent interglacials consistently using an identical model set-up.

Increased river alkalinization in the Eastern U.S.

PubMed

Kaushal, Sujay S; Likens, Gene E; Utz, Ryan M; Pace, Michael L; Grese, Melissa; Yepsen, Metthea

2013-09-17

The interaction between human activities and watershed geology is accelerating long-term changes in the carbon cycle of rivers. We evaluated changes in bicarbonate alkalinity, a product of chemical weathering, and tested for long-term trends at 97 sites in the eastern United States draining over 260,000 km(2). We observed statistically significant increasing trends in alkalinity at 62 of the 97 sites, while remaining sites exhibited no significant decreasing trends. Over 50% of study sites also had statistically significant increasing trends in concentrations of calcium (another product of chemical weathering) where data were available. River alkalinization rates were significantly related to watershed carbonate lithology, acid deposition, and topography. These three variables explained ~40% of variation in river alkalinization rates. The strongest predictor of river alkalinization rates was carbonate lithology. The most rapid rates of river alkalinization occurred at sites with highest inputs of acid deposition and highest elevation. The rise of alkalinity in many rivers throughout the Eastern U.S. suggests human-accelerated chemical weathering, in addition to previously documented impacts of mining and land use. Increased river alkalinization has major environmental implications including impacts on water hardness and salinization of drinking water, alterations of air-water exchange of CO2, coastal ocean acidification, and the influence of bicarbonate availability on primary production.

Penetration of filamentary structures in the x-point region of spherical tokamaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baver, D. A.; Myra, J. R.; Scotti, F.; Zweben, S. J.; Militello, F.; Walkden, N.

2017-10-01

ArbiTER is a flexible eigenvalue code designed for plasma physics applications. It is used here to gain insight into the spatial dependence of filamentary structures in the scrape-off layer of spherical tokamaks. In particular, observations on MAST reveal the presence of a quiescent x-point region. Observations in NSTX similarly reveal a reduction in divertor fluctuations near the separatrix and a loss of midplane correlation. We will report on the penetration of filamentary structures into the vicinity of the x-point, as well as growth rate trends, for a variety of profiles and toroidal mode numbers. This will determine whether linear properties of these structures can explain experimental observations. Work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science, Office of Fusion Energy Sciences, under Award Number DE-FG02-02ER54678.

A simple model of entropy relaxation for explaining effective activation energy behavior below the glass transition temperature.

PubMed

Bisquert, Juan; Henn, François; Giuntini, Jean-Charles

2005-03-01

Strong changes in relaxation rates observed at the glass transition region are frequently explained in terms of a physical singularity of the molecular motions. We show that the unexpected trends and values for activation energy and preexponential factor of the relaxation time tau, obtained at the glass transition from the analysis of the thermally stimulated current signal, result from the use of the Arrhenius law for treating the experimental data obtained in nonstationary experimental conditions. We then demonstrate that a simple model of structural relaxation based on a time dependent configurational entropy and Adam-Gibbs relaxation time is sufficient to explain the experimental behavior, without invoking a kinetic singularity at the glass transition region. The pronounced variation of the effective activation energy appears as a dynamic signature of entropy relaxation that governs the change of relaxation time in nonstationary conditions. A connection is demonstrated between the peak of apparent activation energy measured in nonequilibrium dielectric techniques, with the overshoot of the dynamic specific heat that is obtained in calorimetry techniques.

Linking Regional Satellite Observations with Coupled Human-Ecological Systems in Global Drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchinson, C.; Reynolds, J. F.

2009-12-01

The African Sahel has attracted consistent attention since a series of droughts in the 1970s and 1980s caused widespread famine and land degradation (desertification). These events spawned international conventions and sustained development efforts to increase food security and reverse poverty for the local populations, and to arrest environmental degradation. Since 1985, several studies using satellite data have described a general “greening” in response to increased rainfall trends. However, some areas show more greening while others less greening than can be explained by precipitation alone (Glob. Env. Change 15- 2005). The debated question is how to explain the residual changes: management, policy, human adaptation, or something else? Placing results in an human-ecological framework could help answer this question. Providing a meaningful assessment will allow national and international agencies to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative approaches to poverty alleviation and environmental restoration in drylands at regional and global scales.

Fish community changes in the St. Louis River estuary, Lake Superior, 1989-1996: Is it ruffe or population dynamics?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bronte, Charles R.; Evrard, Lori M.; Brown, William P.; Mayo, Kathleen R.; Edwards, Andrew J.

1998-01-01

Ruffe (Gymnocephalus cernuus) have been implicated in density declines of native species through egg predation and competition for food in some European waters where they were introduced. Density estimates for ruffe and principal native fishes in the St. Louis River estuary (western Lake Superior) were developed for 1989 to 1996 to measure changes in the fish community in response to an unintentional introduction of ruffe. During the study, ruffe density increased and the densities of several native species decreased. The reductions of native stocks to the natural population dynamics of the same species from Chequamegon Bay, Lake Superior (an area with very few ruffe) were developed, where there was a 24-year record of density. Using these data, short- and long-term variations in catch and correlations among species within years were compared, and species-specific distributions were developed of observed trends in abundance of native fishes in Chequamegon Bay indexed by the slopes of densities across years. From these distributions and our observed trend-line slopes from the St. Louis River, probabilities of measuring negative change at the magnitude observed in the St. Louis River were estimated. Compared with trends in Chequamegon Bay, there was a high probability of obtaining the negative slopes measured for most species, which suggests natural population dynamics could explain, the declines rather than interactions with ruffe. Variable recruitment, which was not related to ruffe density, and associated density-dependent changes in mortality likely were responsible for density declines of native species.

Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine

PubMed Central

D’Andrea, Ettore; Rezaie, Negar; Cammarano, Mario; Matteucci, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated. PMID:29252985

Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine.

PubMed

Bombi, Pierluigi; D'Andrea, Ettore; Rezaie, Negar; Cammarano, Mario; Matteucci, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated.

Implications of Uncertainty in Fossil Fuel Emissions for Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, A. W.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Mao, J.; Andres, R. J.

2017-12-01

Given observations of the increase in atmospheric CO2, estimates of anthropogenic emissions and models of oceanic CO2 uptake, one can estimate net global CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems as the residual of the balanced global carbon budget. Estimates from the Global Carbon Project 2016 show that terrestrial ecosystems are a growing sink for atmospheric CO2 (averaging 2.12 Gt C y-1 for the period 1959-2015 with a growth rate of 0.03 Gt C y-1 per year) but with considerable year-to-year variability (standard deviation of 1.07 Gt C y-1). Within the uncertainty of the observations, emissions estimates and ocean modeling, this residual calculation is a robust estimate of a global terrestrial sink for CO2. A task of terrestrial ecosystem science is to explain the trend and variability in this estimate. However, "within the uncertainty" is an important caveat. The uncertainty (2σ; 95% confidence interval) in fossil fuel emissions is 8.4% (±0.8 Gt C in 2015). Combined with uncertainty in other carbon budget components, the 2σ uncertainty surrounding the global net terrestrial ecosystem CO2 exchange is ±1.6 Gt C y-1. Ignoring the uncertainty, the estimate of a general terrestrial sink includes 2 years (1987 and 1998) in which terrestrial ecosystems are a small source of CO2 to the atmosphere. However, with 2σ uncertainty, terrestrial ecosystems may have been a source in as many as 18 years. We examine how well global terrestrial biosphere models simulate the trend and interannual variability of the global-budget estimate of the terrestrial sink within the context of this uncertainty (e.g., which models fall outside the 2σ uncertainty and in what years). Models are generally capable of reproducing the trend in net terrestrial exchange, but are less able to capture interannual variability and often fall outside the 2σ uncertainty. The trend in the residual carbon budget estimate is primarily associated with the increase in atmospheric CO2, while interannual variation is related to variations in global land-surface temperature with weaker sinks in warmer years. We examine whether these relationships are reproduced in models. Their absence might explain weaknesses in model simulations or in the reconstruction of historical climate used as drivers in model intercomparison projects (MIPs).

Quantifying global warming from the retreat of glaciers.

PubMed

Oerlemans, J

1994-04-08

Records of glacier fluctuations compiled by the World Glacier Monitoring Service can be used to derive an independent estimate of global warming during the last 100 years. Records of different glaciers are made comparable by a two-step scaling procedure: one allowing for differences in glacier geometry, the other for differences in climate sensitivity. The retreat of glaciers during the last 100 years appears to be coherent over the globe. On the basis of modeling of the climate sensitivity of glaciers, the observed glacier retreat can be explained by a linear warming trend of 0.66 kelvin per century.

Verification of German methane emission inventories and their recent changes based on atmospheric observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levin, Ingeborg; Glatzel-Mattheier, Holger; Marik, Thomas; Cuntz, Matthias; Schmidt, Martina; Worthy, Douglas E.

1999-02-01

Continuous methane concentration records and stable isotope observations measured in the suburbs of Heidelberg, Germany, are presented. While δ13C-CH4 shows a significant trend of -0.14‰ per year, toward more depleted values, no trend is observed in the concentration data. Comparison of the Heidelberg records with clean air observations in the North Atlantic at Izaña station (Tenerife) allows the determination of the continental methane excess at Heidelberg, decreasing by 20% from 190 ppb in 1992 to 150 ppb in 1997. The isotope ratio which is associated with this continental methane pileup in the Heidelberg catchment area shows a significant trend to more depleted values from δ13Csource = -47.4 ± 1.2‰ in 1992 to -52.9 ± 0.4‰ in 1995/1996, pointing to a significant change in the methane source mix. Total methane emissions in the Heidelberg catchment area are estimated using the 222radon (222Rn) tracer method: from the correlations of half-hourly 222Rn and CH4 mixing ratios from 1995 to 1997, and the mean 222Rn exhalation rate from typical soils in the Rhine valley, a mean methane flux of 0.24 ± 0.5 g CH4 km-2 s-1 is derived. For the Heidelberg catchment area with an estimated radius of approximately 150 km, Core Inventories Air 1990 (CORINAIR90) emission estimates yield a flux of 0.47 g CH4 km-2 s-1, which is about 40% higher than the 222Rn-derived number if extrapolated to 1990. The discrepancy can be explained by overestimated emissions from waste management in the CORINAIR90 statistical assessment. The observed decrease in total emissions can be accounted for by decreasing contributions from fossil sources (mainly coal mining) and from cattle breeding. This finding is also supported by the observed decrease in mean source isotopic signatures.

Geographical Gradients in Argentinean Terrestrial Mammal Species Richness and Their Environmental Correlates

PubMed Central

Márquez, Ana L.; Real, Raimundo; Kin, Marta S.; Guerrero, José Carlos; Galván, Betina; Barbosa, A. Márcia; Olivero, Jesús; Palomo, L. Javier; Vargas, J. Mario; Justo, Enrique

2012-01-01

We analysed the main geographical trends of terrestrial mammal species richness (SR) in Argentina, assessing how broad-scale environmental variation (defined by climatic and topographic variables) and the spatial form of the country (defined by spatial filters based on spatial eigenvector mapping (SEVM)) influence the kinds and the numbers of mammal species along these geographical trends. We also evaluated if there are pure geographical trends not accounted for by the environmental or spatial factors. The environmental variables and spatial filters that simultaneously correlated with the geographical variables and SR were considered potential causes of the geographic trends. We performed partial correlations between SR and the geographical variables, maintaining the selected explanatory variables statistically constant, to determine if SR was fully explained by them or if a significant residual geographic pattern remained. All groups and subgroups presented a latitudinal gradient not attributable to the spatial form of the country. Most of these trends were not explained by climate. We used a variation partitioning procedure to quantify the pure geographic trend (PGT) that remained unaccounted for. The PGT was larger for latitudinal than for longitudinal gradients. This suggests that historical or purely geographical causes may also be relevant drivers of these geographical gradients in mammal diversity. PMID:23028254

The Darkening of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Trends, Drivers and Projections (1981-2100)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tedesco, Marco; Doherty, Sarah; Fettweis, Xavier; Alexander, Patrick; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth; Stroeve, Julienne

2016-01-01

The surface energy balance and meltwater production of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) are modulated by snow and ice albedo through the amount of absorbed solar radiation. Here we show, using space-borne multispectral data collected during the 3 decades from 1981 to 2012, that summertime surface albedo over the GrIS decreased at a statistically significant (99 %) rate of 0.02 decade(sup -1) between 1996 and 2012. Over the same period, albedo modelled by the Modele Atmospherique Regionale (MAR) also shows a decrease, though at a lower rate (approximately -0.01 decade(sup -1)) than that obtained from space-borne data. We suggest that the discrepancy between modelled and measured albedo trends can be explained by the absence in the model of processes associated with the presence of light-absorbing impurities. The negative trend in observed albedo is confined to the regions of the GrIS that undergo melting in summer, with the dry snow zone showing no trend. The period 1981-1996 also showed no statistically significant trend over the whole GrIS. Analysis of MAR outputs indicates that the observed albedo decrease is attributable to the combined effects of increased near-surface air temperatures, which enhanced melt and promoted growth in snow grain size and the expansion of bare ice areas, and to trends in light-absorbing impurities (LAI) on the snow and ice surfaces. Neither aerosol models nor in situ and remote sensing observations indicate increasing trends in LAI in the atmosphere over Greenland. Similarly, an analysis of the number of fires and BC emissions from fires points to the absence of trends for such quantities. This suggests that the apparent increase of LAI in snow and ice might be related to the exposure of a "dark band" of dirty ice and to increased consolidation of LAI at the surface with melt, not to increased aerosol deposition. Albedo projections through to the end of the century under different warming scenarios consistently point to continued darkening, with albedo anomalies averaged over the whole ice sheet lower by 0.08 in 2100 than in 2000, driven solely by a warming climate. Future darkening is likely underestimated because of known underestimates in modelled melting (as seen in hindcasts) and because the model albedo scheme does not currently include the effects of LAI, which have a positive feedback on albedo decline through increased melting, grain growth, and darkening.

Double-observer approach to estimating egg mass abundance of vernal pool breeding amphibians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, E.H.C.; Jung, R.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

2005-01-01

Interest in seasonally flooded pools, and the status of associated amphibian populations, has initiated programs in the northeastern United States to document and monitor these habitats. Counting egg masses is an effective way to determine the population size of pool-breeding amphibians, such as wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum). However, bias is associated with counts if egg masses are missed. Counts unadjusted for the proportion missed (i.e., without adjustment for detection probability) could lead to false assessments of population trends. We used a dependent double-observer method in 2002-2003 to estimate numbers of wood frog and spotted salamander egg masses at seasonal forest pools in 13 National Wildlife Refuges, 1 National Park, 1 National Seashore, and 1 State Park in the northeastern United States. We calculated detection probabilities for egg masses and examined whether detection probabilities varied by species, observers, pools, and in relation to pool characteristics (pool area, pool maximum depth, within-pool vegetation). For the 2 years, model selection indicated that no consistent set of variables explained the variation in data sets from individual Refuges and Parks. Because our results indicated that egg mass detection probabilities vary spatially and temporally, we conclude that it is essential to use estimation procedures, such as double-observer methods with egg mass surveys, to determine population sizes and trends of these species.

Molecular Line Emission as a Tool for Galaxy Observations (LEGO). I. HCN as a tracer of moderate gas densities in molecular clouds and galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauffmann, Jens; Goldsmith, Paul F.; Melnick, Gary; Tolls, Volker; Guzman, Andres; Menten, Karl M.

2017-09-01

Trends observed in galaxies, such as the Gao & Solomon relation, suggest a linear relationship between the star formation rate and the mass of dense gas available for star formation. Validation of such trends requires the establishment of reliable methods to trace the dense gas in galaxies. One frequent assumption is that the HCN (J = 1-0) transition is unambiguously associated with gas at H2 densities ≫ 104 cm-3. If so, the mass of gas at densities ≫ 104 cm-3 could be inferred from the luminosity of this emission line, LHCN (1-0). Here we use observations of the Orion A molecular cloud to show that the HCN (J = 1-0) line traces much lower densities 103 cm-3 in cold sections of this molecular cloud, corresponding to visual extinctions AV ≈ 6 mag. We also find that cold and dense gas in a cloud like Orion produces too little HCN emission to explain LHCN (1-0) in star forming galaxies, suggesting that galaxies might contain a hitherto unknown source of HCN emission. In our sample of molecules observed at frequencies near 100 GHz (also including 12CO, 13CO, C18O, CN, and CCH), N2H+ is the only species clearly associated with relatively dense gas.

Could the long term cover change of three Mediterranean shrubs be explained by their photosynthetic responses to drought in a rainfall exclusion experiment ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberati, Dario; De Dato, Giovanbattista; Guidolotti, Gabriele; De Angelis, Paolo

2013-04-01

In the Mediterranean climates water stress is considered to be the main environmental factor limiting plant growth. In front of water limitations plants have developed a wide diversity of adaptation mechanism, and co-occurring species often display different physiological, functional, and life history strategies. In the contest of a rainfall exclusion experiment (project INCREASE), the present work is aimed to assess if the seasonal response of photosynthesis to the water stress (based on gas exchange data collected during 2010) can explain the long term change in the cover degree (assessed by seven pin point survey carried out from 2001 to 2012) of the three main species present in the Italian experimental site, Cistus monspeliensis L. (Cistaceae), Dorycnium pentaphyllum Scop. (Fabaceae) and Helichrysum italicum subsp. microphyllum (Willd.) Nyman (Asteraceae) From 2001 to 2012, in the untreated plots, the cover degree increased in C. monspeliensis (+ 0.34% per year), did not show any significant trend in D. pentaphyllum and decreased in H. italicum (- 1.54% per year). In the same period the rainfall exclusion system has worked during Spring and Autumn, mainly reducing the soil water content of the drought plots in Autumn: this treatment did not affect the cover trend of D. pentaphyllum and H. italicum, whereas C. monspeliensis displayed in the drought plots an opposite dynamic (- 1.23% per year) compared to the natural conditions. During 2010 all monitored species reached the maximum photosynthesis rates in spring, with a depression during summer drought and a recovery after the first Autumn rainfalls. The recovery of the spring rates was almost complete in C. monspeliensis and D. pentaphyllum, while in H. italicum did not exceed the 30% of the spring value. The rainfall exclusion reduced the photosynthesis rates in C. monspeliensis and H. italicum in Autumn. In the control plots the opposite cover trend observed in C. monspeliensis and H.italicum could be connected to the different ability of the two species in keeping high photosynthesis rates during the Autumn period, that could imply a limitation in the growth and therefore in the competitive ability of H. italicum. The lower ability of D. pentaphyllum in gain cover with respect to C. monspeliensis, despite the similar photosynthetic seasonal trend, could be related to the different resource allocation pattern connected to the deep root system, that only characterize this species. The strong effect of the rainfall exclusion on the cover trend of C. monspeliensis , compared to no effect observed in H. italicum, could be explained by the timing of the drought treatment, affecting C. monspeliensis during one of the two annual photosynthetic peaks, H. italicum during a period of low photosynthetic activity. It seems therefore possible to find some connection between the population dynamics of the studied species and their ability in recovering after the drought stress; furthermore, the lengthening of the dry season, as simulated by the rainfall exclusion system, in the long term seems to impact more on those species, like C. monspeliensis, relying on Autumn period to perform a significant part of their annual assimilation.

Numerical simulation of hydrothermal circulation in the Cascade Range, north-central Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ingebritsen, S.E.; Paulson, K.M.

1990-01-01

Alternate conceptual models to explain near-surface heat-flow observations in the central Oregon Cascade Range involve (1) an extensive mid-crustal magmatic heat source underlying both the Quaternary arc and adjacent older rocks or (2) a narrower deep heat source which is flanked by a relatively shallow conductive heat-flow anomaly caused by regional ground-water flow (the lateral-flow model). Relative to the mid-crustal heat source model, the lateral-flow model suggests a more limited geothermal resource base, but a better-defined exploration target. We simulated ground-water flow and heat transport through two cross sections trending west from the Cascade range crest in order to explore the implications of the two models. The thermal input for the alternate conceptual models was simulated by varying the width and intensity of a basal heat-flow anomaly and, in some cases, by introducing shallower heat sources beneath the Quaternary arc. Near-surface observations in the Breitenbush Hot Springs area are most readily explained in terms of lateral heat transport by regional ground-water flow; however, the deep thermal structure still cannot be uniquely inferred. The sparser thermal data set from the McKenzie River area can be explained either in terms of deep regional ground-water flow or in terms of a conduction-dominated system, with ground-water flow essentially confined to Quaternary rocks and fault zones.

What Drives Hydrogen Isotopic Variability Recorded by Biomarkers in Sediments of Lake Karakul, Pamir?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aichner, B.; Mischke, S.; Pausata, F. S. R.; Werner, M.; Zhang, Q.; Heinecke, L.; Feakins, S. J.; Sachse, D.; Mahmoudov, Z.; Rajabov, I.

2017-12-01

Central Asia is a climate sensitive region located at the boundary of large scale atmospheric circulation systems. To examine glacial to interglacial hydrological changes in the region, we analysed the hydrogen isotopic composition (δD values) of n-alkanes in a 30-ka record from Lake Karakul, eastern Pamir (altitude: 3,915m, MAT: -3.9 °C, MAP: 82 mm). δD values of both aquatic and terrestrial compounds showed distinct trends throughout the studied time interval, with generally higher values during the glacial and lower values during the Holocene, and variability of up to 60‰. In particular shifts towards higher δD values were observed for aquatic biomarkers at ca. 30, 27, and 15 ka BP. Temperature and precipitation effects alone cannot explain the higher δD values during the glacial and the large isotopic amplitudes. To explain these observations we conducted a set of experiments using atmospheric models with embedded isotope modules (CAM3iso- and ECHAM5-wiso). We assume that terrestrial n-alkanes mainly record the isotopic signature of summer precipitation within the lower elevated parts of the Karakul Basin. Based on the model output we hypothesize that shifts between local and more distant vapour sources are the reason behind the trends within isotopic data. Data derived from aquatic biomarkers are more difficult to explain due to multiple influencing factors on δD of the lake water. Assuming that the lake water integrates an annual isotopic signal from the whole lake catchment, we suggest that a change in precipitation seasonality drives the large variability of hydrogen isotopic values. This is in agreement with the models, which suggest reduced winter (more negative δD) and slightly higher summer precipitation (more positive δD) during the glacial compared to the Holocene. Consequently, a net-increase of isotopically enriched inflow into the lake could explain the three distinct shifts towards higher δD values. Expansion of terrestrial vegetation, indicated by increasing biomarker concentrations, during these periods is another indicator for wetter summers in an arid environment. We conclude that δD values of terrestrial compounds reflect major shifts of vapour sources which are driven by insolation, while aquatic biomarkers are additionally influenced by changes of precipitation seasonality.

To what extent does climate explain variations in reported malaria cases in early 20th century Uganda?

PubMed

Tompkins, Adrian M; Larsen, Laragh; McCreesh, Nicky; Taylor, David

2016-03-31

Malaria case statistics were analysed for the period 1926 to 1960 to identify inter-annual variations in malaria cases for the Uganda Protectorate. The analysis shows the mid-to-late 1930s to be a period of increased reported cases. After World War II, malaria cases trend down to a relative minimum in the early 1950s, before increasing rapidly after 1953 to the end of the decade. Data for the Western Province confirm these national trends, which at the time were attributed to a wide range of causes, including land development and management schemes, population mobility, interventions and misdiagnosis. Climate was occasionally proposed as a contributor to enhanced case numbers, and unusual precipitation patterns were held responsible; temperature was rarely, if ever, considered. In this study, a dynamical malaria model was driven with available precipitation and temperature data from the period for five stations located across a range of environments in Uganda. In line with the historical data, the simulations produced relatively enhanced transmission in the 1930s, although there is considerable variability between locations. In all locations, malaria transmission was low in the late 1940s and early 1950s, steeply increasing after 1954. Results indicate that past climate variability explains some of the variations in numbers of reported malaria cases. The impact of multiannual variability in temperature, while only on the order of 0.5°C, was sufficient to drive some of the trends observed in the statistics and thus the role of climate was likely underestimated in the contemporary reports. As the elimination campaigns of the 1960s followed this partly climate-driven increase in malaria, this emphasises the need to account for climate when planning and evaluating intervention strategies.

Derivation of Tropospheric Ozone Climatology and Trends from TOMS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newchurch, Michael J.; McPeters, Rich; Logan, Jennifer; Kim, Jae-Hwan

2002-01-01

This research addresses the following three objectives: (1) Derive tropospheric ozone columns from the TOMS instruments by computing the difference between total-ozone columns over cloudy areas and over clear areas in the tropics; (2) Compute secular trends in Nimbus-7 derived tropospheric Ozone column amounts and associated potential trends in the decadal-scale tropical cloud climatology; (3) Explain the occurrence of anomalously high ozone retrievals over high ice clouds.

Measurement of Seaward Ground Displacements on Coastal Landfill Area Using Radar Interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, W.-K.; Jung, H.-S.

2018-04-01

In order to understand the mechanism of subsidence and help reducing damage, researchers has been observed the line-of-sight subsidence on the Noksan industrial complex using SAR Interferometry(InSAR) and suggested subsidence prediction models. Although these researches explained a spatially uneven ground subsidence near the seaside, they could not have been explained the occurrence of the newly proposed seaward horizontal, especially nearly north-ward, displacement because of the geometric limitation of InSAR measurements. In this study, we measured the seaward ground displacements trend on the coastal landfill area, Noksan Industrial Complex. We set the interferometric pairs from an ascending and a descending orbits strip map data of ALOS PALSAR2. We employed InSAR and MAI stacking approaches for the both orbits respectively in order to improve the measurement. Finally, seaward deformation was estimated by retrieving three-dimensional displacements from multi-geometric displacements. As a results, maximally 3.3 and 0.7 cm/year of ground displacements for the vertical and seaward directions. In further study, we plan to generate InSAR and MAI stacking measurements with additional SAR data to mitigate tropospheric effect and noise well. Such a seaward observation approach using spaceborne radar is expected to be effective in observing the long-term movements on coastal landfill area.

THE BLUE HOOK POPULATIONS OF MASSIVE GLOBULAR CLUSTERS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Thomas M.; Smith, Ed; Sweigart, Allen V.

2010-08-01

We present new Hubble Space Telescope ultraviolet color-magnitude diagrams of five massive Galactic globular clusters: NGC 2419, NGC 6273, NGC 6715, NGC 6388, and NGC 6441. These observations were obtained to investigate the 'blue hook' (BH) phenomenon previously observed in UV images of the globular clusters {omega} Cen and NGC 2808. Blue hook stars are a class of hot (approximately 35,000 K) subluminous horizontal branch stars that occupy a region of the HR diagram that is unexplained by canonical stellar evolution theory. By coupling new stellar evolution models to appropriate non-LTE synthetic spectra, we investigate various theoretical explanations for thesemore » stars. Specifically, we compare our photometry to canonical models at standard cluster abundances, canonical models with enhanced helium (consistent with cluster self-enrichment at early times), and flash-mixed models formed via a late helium-core flash on the white dwarf cooling curve. We find that flash-mixed models are required to explain the faint luminosity of the BH stars, although neither the canonical models nor the flash-mixed models can explain the range of color observed in such stars, especially those in the most metal-rich clusters. Aside from the variation in the color range, no clear trends emerge in the morphology of the BH population with respect to metallicity.« less

STABLE AND UNSTABLE REGIMES OF MASS ACCRETION ONTO RW AUR A

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Takami, Michihiro; Wei, Yu-Jie; Chou, Mei-Yin

2016-04-01

We present monitoring observations of the active T Tauri star RW Aur, from 2010 October to 2015 January, using optical high-resolution (R ≥ 10,000) spectroscopy with Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope/ESPaDOnS. Optical photometry in the literature shows bright, stable fluxes over most of this period, with lower fluxes (by 2–3 mag) in 2010 and 2014. In the bright period our spectra show clear photospheric absorption, complicated variation in the Ca ii λ8542 emission profile shapes, and a large variation in redshifted absorption in the O i λλ7772 and 8446 and He i λ5876 lines, suggesting unstable mass accretion during this period. In contrast, these line profiles are relativelymore » uniform during the faint periods, suggesting stable mass accretion. During the faint periods, the photospheric absorption lines are absent or marginal, and the averaged Li i profile shows redshifted absorption due to an inflow. We discuss (1) occultation by circumstellar material or a companion and (2) changes in the activity of mass accretion to explain the above results, together with near-infrared and X-ray observations from 2011 to 2015. Neither scenario can simply explain all the observed trends, and more theoretical work is needed to further investigate their feasibilities.« less

Slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its implications for abrupt ecosystem change.

PubMed

Boulton, Chris A; Lenton, Timothy M

2015-09-15

Marine ecosystems are sensitive to stochastic environmental variability, with higher-amplitude, lower-frequency--i.e., "redder"--variability posing a greater threat of triggering large ecosystem changes. Here we show that fluctuations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index have slowed down markedly over the observational record (1900-present), as indicated by a robust increase in autocorrelation. This "reddening" of the spectrum of climate variability is also found in regionally averaged North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and can be at least partly explained by observed deepening of the ocean mixed layer. The progressive reddening of North Pacific climate variability has important implications for marine ecosystems. Ecosystem variables that respond linearly to climate forcing will have become prone to much larger variations over the observational record, whereas ecosystem variables that respond nonlinearly to climate forcing will have become prone to more frequent "regime shifts." Thus, slowing down of North Pacific climate variability can help explain the large magnitude and potentially the quick succession of well-known abrupt changes in North Pacific ecosystems in 1977 and 1989. When looking ahead, despite model limitations in simulating mixed layer depth (MLD) in the North Pacific, global warming is robustly expected to decrease MLD. This could potentially reverse the observed trend of slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its effects on marine ecosystems.

The Dust Cycle Observed by Pathfinder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, P. H.; Lemmon, M. T.; Tomasko, M. G.

1998-09-01

The Imager for Mars Pathfinder observed the Sun through special filters nearly every sol throughout the 83 sol mission; a total of 1733 images of the Sun have been obtained. Optical depths at four wavelengths (450, 670, 883, and 989 nm) steadily increased from 0.4 to 0.6 during the mission (Ls 145-185). Comparing observations taken in the morning to those from the afternoon shows a general variability with the morning haze being somewhat thicker by 0.1 optical depths. Typically, the trend is more pronounced in the blue wavelength band; we interpret this to be the influence of a high level haze of water ice crystals that forms in the early morning and evaporates during the day. Small, Rayleigh scattering crystals explains the spectral signature that we measure. It may be that this upper haze layer is associated with the small, ice crystals seen by Mariner 9, the Viking orbiters, and the Phobos orbiter. UV images taken by HST show strong limb brightening that can be explained by this high level ice. Calculations of the haze lifetimes given the sedimentation rates measured from the Rover's solar panels and the magnetic targets, suggest that the haze should completely deposit onto the surface within 120 days. A primary mechanism for replenishing the haze may be the dust devils that were observed during the sol 11 gallery pan.

Long-term evolution (1988-2008) of Zostera spp. meadows in Arcachon Bay (Bay of Biscay)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Plus; Sébastien, Dalloyau; Gilles, Trut; Isabelle, Auby; de Montaudouin, Xavier; Emery, Éric; Claire, Noël; Christophe, Viala

2010-04-01

The spatial variability of seagrass meadows in Arcachon Bay, was studied between 1988 and 2008 using a combination of mapping techniques based on aerial photographs for intertidal dwarf-grass ( Zostera noltii) beds and acoustic sonar for permanently submerged eelgrass ( Zostera marina) populations. The results show a severe decline over the period for both species, as well as an acceleration of the decline since 2005 for Z. noltii. The total surface regression over the studied period is estimated to be 22.8 km 2 for Z. noltii and 2.7 km 2 for Z. marina, which represent declines of 33 and 74% respectively. Environmental data time series spanning the same period were investigated in order to seek the causes for such a decline. The calculated inter-annual trends for temperature, salinity, nitrate plus nitrite, ammonia, suspended sediment and chlorophyll a did not identify any clear environmental change capable of explaining the observed seagrass regression. For instance, no evident sign of eutrophication was observed over the study period. On the other hand, we suggest that the observed variations of ammonia in the inner part of the lagoon are a symptom of the seagrasses' disappearance and thus, a first sign indicating a change of the Arcachon Bay ecosystem towards more instability and vulnerability. Several hypotheses to explain the observed seagrass decay are proposed.

Riverine discharges to Chesapeake Bay: Analysis of long-term (1927–2014) records and implications for future flows in the Chesapeake Bay basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen; Moyer, Douglas; Mills, Aaron L.

2017-01-01

The Chesapeake Bay (CB) basin is under a total maximum daily load (TMDL) mandate to reduce nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads to the bay. Identifying shifts in the hydro-climatic regime may help explain observed trends in water quality. To identify potential shifts, hydrologic data (1927–2014) for 27 watersheds in the CB basin were analyzed to determine the relationships among long-term precipitation and stream discharge trends. The amount, frequency, and intensity of precipitation increased from 1910 to 1996 in the eastern U.S., with the observed increases greater in the northeastern U.S. than the southeastern U.S. The CB watershed spans the north-to-south gradient in precipitation increases, and hydrologic differences have been observed in watersheds north relative to watersheds south of the Pennsylvania—Maryland (PA-MD) border. Time series of monthly mean precipitation data specific to each of 27 watersheds were derived from the Precipitation-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) dataset, and monthly mean stream-discharge data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey streamgage records. All annual precipitation trend slopes in the 18 watersheds north of the PA-MD border were greater than or equal to those of the nine south of that border. The magnitude of the trend slopes for 1927–2014 in both precipitation and discharge decreased in a north-to-south pattern. Distributions of the monthly precipitation and discharge datasets were assembled into percentiles for each year for each watershed. Multivariate correlation of precipitation and discharge within percentiles among the groups of northern and southern watersheds indicated only weak associations. Regional-scale average behaviors of trends in the distribution of precipitation and discharge annual percentiles differed between the northern and southern watersheds. In general, the linkage between precipitation and discharge was weak, with the linkage weaker in the northern watersheds compared to those in the south. On the basis of simple linear regression, 26 of the 27 watersheds are projected to have higher annual mean discharge in 2025, the target date for implementation of the TMDL for the CB basin.

Carbon monoxide observations from ground stations in France and Europe and long trends in the free troposphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevalier, A.; Gheusi, F.; Attié, J.-L.; Delmas, R.; Zbinden, R.; Athier, G.; Cousin, J.-M.

2008-02-01

Continuous CO measurements performed at 3 high-altitude stations in France are analyzed for the first time. Data are provided by the new PAES (Pollution Atmospherique à l'Echelle Synoptique) network since 2002 for the Puy de Dôme and 2004 for the Pic du Midi and the Donon. CO measurements of 5 another European stations have been analysed to put the PAES stations in an European perspective. The January 2002-April 2005 CO mean levels of surface stations capture the stratification revealed by climatological CO profiles from the airborne observation system MOZAIC (Measurement of OZone and water vapour by Airbus In-service Aircraft). The deviation between the free tropospheric reference MOZAIC and surface data above 2000 m is less than 10% and this deviation can be explained in term of spatial variability, as evidenced by MOPITT CO retrievals at 700 hPa. This suggests that, averaged at a seasonal time scale (4 months), surface data at stations above 2000 m are representative of background CO concentration. This paper focuses then on trends since the 1980s-1990s. The comparison between old (1982-1983) and recent CO mixing ratio (2005) at the Pic du Midi leads to a 10% decrease, consistent with the continuous data series at Zugspitze (ZSP) from 1991 to 2004. This decrease was found to be mainly due to a negative trend of January-April mean levels. The decrease in CO sources over France and Europe appears to be responsible for that trend. The stable values of June-September mean levels suggest that the summertime oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere related to OH radicals is important enough to counterbalance any CO inputs into the troposphere. Our study shows a recent change in CO evolution since 2000 over Western Europe, with a slowed down decrease in CO concentration. Studying specifically the interactions between CO, CH4 and OH turns out to be needed, however, to find definitive explanations to those observations.

Have Tropical Cyclones Been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Zhou, Y. P.; Wu, H.-T.

2008-01-01

We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data, and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-rain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events and 21% of rain amount in WNP. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP, there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for both periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slight more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the long-term relationship between TC rain and warm pool areas are strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

Undocumented Migration and the Wages of Mexican Immigrants

PubMed Central

Massey, Douglas S.; Gentsch, Kerstin

2016-01-01

Prior work has documented the remarkable decline in the real wages of Mexican immigrant workers in the United States over the past several decades. Although some of this trend might be attributable to the changing characteristics of the migrants themselves, we argue that a more important change was the circumstances under within Mexican immigrants competed for jobs in the United States. After 1986 a growing share of Mexican immigrants were undocumented, discrimination against them was mandated by federal law, and enforcement efforts rose in intensity. We combined data from the Mexican Migration Project with independent estimates of the percentage undocumented among Mexicans living in the United States to estimate a series of regression models to test this hypothesis. Controlling for individual characteristics helps to explain the decline in the wages of immigrants, but does not eliminate the trend, which is only explained fully when the percentage undocumented is added to the model. A key date is 1986, confirmed by a Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition analysis, when undocumented hiring was criminalized and undocumented migration revived after IRCA's legalization programs ended. As the percentage undocumented rose to new heights in the face of employer sanctions, immigrant wages fell below what we would have observed under the former policy regime. Using newly available data from Warren and Warren (2013), we examined how variation in the percentage undocumented by state and year from 1990 through 2009 affected immigrant wages and confirmed a strong negative effect, but the addition of an interaction term to the model indicated that the negative effect was confined largely to undocumented migrants, whose wage penalty rose from 8% to 18% as the percentage undocumented rose from its observed minimum to maximum. PMID:27134328

THE AMERICAN HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION RATE: TRENDS AND LEVELS.

PubMed

Heckman, James J; Lafontaine, Paul A

2010-05-01

This paper applies a unified methodology to multiple data sets to estimate both the levels and trends in U.S. high school graduation rates. We establish that (a) the true rate is substantially lower than widely used measures; (b) it peaked in the early 1970s; (c) majority/minority differentials are substantial and have not converged for 35 years; (d) lower post-1970 rates are not solely due to increasing immigrant and minority populations; (e) our findings explain part of the slowdown in college attendance and rising college wage premiums; and (f) widening graduation differentials by gender help explain increasing male-female college attendance gaps.

THE AMERICAN HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION RATE: TRENDS AND LEVELS*

PubMed Central

Heckman, James J.; LaFontaine, Paul A.

2009-01-01

This paper applies a unified methodology to multiple data sets to estimate both the levels and trends in U.S. high school graduation rates. We establish that (a) the true rate is substantially lower than widely used measures; (b) it peaked in the early 1970s; (c) majority/minority differentials are substantial and have not converged for 35 years; (d) lower post-1970 rates are not solely due to increasing immigrant and minority populations; (e) our findings explain part of the slowdown in college attendance and rising college wage premiums; and (f) widening graduation differentials by gender help explain increasing male-female college attendance gaps. PMID:20625528

Tectonics and seismicity of the southern Washington Cascade range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, W.D.; Johnson, S.Y.; Qamar, A.I.; Weaver, C.S.; Williams, J.M.

1996-01-01

Geophysical, geological, and seismicity data are combined to develop a transpressional strain model for the southern Washington Cascades region. We use this model to explain oblique fold and fault systems, transverse faults, and a linear seismic zone just west of Mt. Rainier known as the western Rainier zone. We also attempt to explain a concentration of earthquakes that connects the northwest-trending Mount St. Helens seismic zone to the north-trending western Rainier zone. Our tectonic model illustrates the pervasive effects of accretionary processes, combined with subsequent transpressive forces generated by oblique subduction, on Eocene to present crustal processes, such as seismicity and volcanism.

Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates in the Slovak Republic between 1993-2008.

PubMed

Psota, Marek; Bandosz, Piotr; Gonçalvesová, Eva; Avdičová, Mária; Bucek Pšenková, Mária; Studenčan, Martin; Pekarčíková, Jarmila; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

2018-01-01

Between the years 1993 and 2008, mortality rates from coronary heart disease (CHD) in the Slovak Republic have decreased by almost one quarter. However, this was a smaller decline than in neighbouring countries. The aim of this modelling study was therefore to quantify the contributions of risk factor changes and the use of evidence-based medical therapies to the CHD mortality decline between 1993 and 2008. We identified, obtained and scrutinised the data required for the model. These data detailed trends in the major population cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes prevalence, body mass index (BMI) and physical activity levels), and also the uptake of all standard CHD treatments. The main data sources were official statistics (National Health Information Centre and Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic) and national representative studies (AUDIT, SLOVAKS, SLOVASeZ, CINDI, EHES, EHIS). The previously validated IMPACT policy model was then used to combine and integrate these data with effect sizes from published meta-analyses quantifying the effectiveness of specific evidence-based treatments, and population-wide changes in cardiovascular risk factors. Results were expressed as deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) attributable to risk factor changes or treatments. Uncertainties were explored using sensitivity analyses. Between 1993 and 2008 age-adjusted CHD mortality rates in the Slovak Republic (SR) decreased by 23% in men and 26% in women aged 25-74 years. This represented some 1820 fewer CHD deaths in 2008 than expected if mortality rates had not fallen. The IMPACT model explained 91% of this mortality decline. Approximately 50% of the decline was attributable to changes in acute phase and secondary prevention treatments, particularly acute and chronic treatments for heart failure (≈12%), acute coronary syndrome treatments (≈9%) and secondary prevention following AMI and revascularisation (≈8%). Changes in CHD risk factors explained approximately 41% of the total mortality decrease, mainly reflecting reductions in total serum cholesterol. However, other risk factors demonstrated adverse trends and thus generated approximately 740 additional deaths. Our analysis suggests that approximately half the CHD mortality fall recently observed in the SR may be attributable to the increased use of evidence-based treatments. However, the adverse trends observed in all the major cardiovascular risk factors (apart from total cholesterol) are deeply worrying. They highlight the need for more energetic population-wide prevention policies such as tobacco control, reducing salt and industrial trans fats content in processed food, clearer food labelling and regulated marketing of processed foods and sugary drinks.

Trends in nutrients and suspended solids at the Fall Line of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia, July 1988 through June 1995

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, C.F.; Belval, D.L.; Campbell, J.P.

1996-01-01

Water-quality samples were collected at the Fall Line of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia during a 6- to 7-year period. The water-quality data were used to estimate loads of nutrients and suspended solids from these tributaries to the non-tidal part of Chesapeake Bay Basin and to identify trends in water quality. Knowledge of trends in water quality is required to assess the effectiveness of nutrient manage- ment strategies in the five basins. Multivariate log-linear regression and the seasonal Kendall test were used to estimate flow-adjusted trends in constituent concentration and load. Results of multivariate log-linear regression indicated a greater number of statistically significant trends than the seasonal Kendall test; how-ever, when both methods indicated a significant trend, both agreed on the direction of the trend. Interpre- tation of the trend estimates for this report was based on results of the parametric regression method. No significant trends in total nitrogen concentration were detected at the James River monitoring station from July 1988 through June 1995, though total Kjeldahl nitrogen concen- tration decreased slightly in base-flow samples. Total phosphorus concentration decreased about 29 percent at this station during the sampling period. Most of the decrease can be attributed to reductions in point-source phosphorus loads in 1988 and 1989, especially the phosphate detergent ban of 1988. No significant trends in total suspended solids were observed at the James River monitoring station, and no trends in runoff- derived constituents were interpreted for this river. Significant decreases were detected in concentrations of total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen, and total suspended solids at the Rappahannock River monitoring station between July 1988 and June 1995. A similar downward trend in total phosphorus concentration was significant at the 90-percent confidence level, but not the 95-percent confidence level. These decreases can be attributed primarily to reductions in nonpoint nutrient and sediment loads, and may have been partially caused by implementation of best management practices on agricultural and silvicultural land. Flow-adjusted trends observed at the Appomattox, Pamunkey, and Mattaponi monitoring stations were more difficult to explain than those at the James and Rappahannock stations. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen and total phosphorus increased 16 and 23 percent, respectively, at the Appomattox River monitoring station from July 1989 through June 1995. Total phosphorus concentration increased about 46 percent at the Pamunkey River monitoring station between July 1989 and June 1995. At the Mattaponi River monitoring station, decreases in dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen were offset by increases in total Kjeldahl nitrogen, resulting in no net change in total nitrogen concentration from October 1989 through June 1995.

Can change in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels reduce cardiovascular risk?

PubMed

Dean, Bonnie B; Borenstein, Jeff E; Henning, James M; Knight, Kevin; Merz, C Noel Bairey

2004-06-01

The cardiovascular risk reduction observed in many trials of lipid-lowering agents is greater than expected on the basis of observed low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level reductions. Our objective was to explore the degree to which high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level changes explain cardiovascular risk reduction. A systematic review identified trials of lipid-lowering agents reporting changes in HDL-C and LDL-C levels and the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD). The observed relative risk reduction (RRR) in CHD morbidity and mortality rates was calculated. The expected RRR, given the treatment effect on total cholesterol level, was calculated for each trial with logistic regression coefficients from observational studies. The difference between observed and expected RRR was plotted against the change in HDL-C level, and a least-squares regression line was calculated. Fifty-one trials were identified. Nineteen statin trials addressed the association of HDL-C with CHD. Limited numbers of trials of other therapies precluded additional analyses. Among statin trials, therapy reduced total cholesterol levels as much as 32% and LDL-C levels as much as 45%. HDL-C level increases were <10%. Treatment effect on HDL-C levels was not a significant linear predictor of the difference in observed and expected CHD mortality rates, although we observed a trend in this direction (P =.08). Similarly, HDL-C effect was not a significant linear predictor of the difference between observed and expected RRRs for CHD morbidity (P =.20). Although a linear trend toward greater risk reduction was observed with greater effects on HDL-C, differences were not statistically significant. The narrow range of HDL-C level increases in the statin trials likely reduced our ability to detect a beneficial HDL-C effect, if present.

Recent dynamics of hydro-ecosystems in thermokarst depressions in Central Siberia from satellite and in situ observations: Importance for agriculture and human life.

PubMed

Zakharova, Elena A; Kouraev, Alexei V; Stephane, Guillaso; Franck, Garestier; Desyatkin, Roman V; Desyatkin, Alexey R

2018-02-15

Alases, which are thermokarst depressions that are occupied by grasslands and lakes, are an important element of the Central Yakutian periglacial landscape. In recent decades, climatic changes in Central Yakutia have resulted in important changes in environmental conditions. We use different remote-sensing instruments (Landsat 8, TerraSAR-X, ENVISAT-RA2, and Jason-2) alongside in situ observations to investigate 1) the spatial distribution and water regime of alas lakes and their relationships with climatic and geomorphologic factors, 2) the relationship of the alas' grassland productivity with the water regime and 3) the potential of alas grasslands for local agriculture. During the 2002-2010 period, the lake water level rose by 1.3m on average, resulting in lake expansion throughout the region. Since 2011, the lake area decreased and the water level declined by 70cm on the middle terraces (low ground-ice content), while the wetting trend continued until 2016 at higher elevations. Small thermokarst lakes (<0.025km 2 ), which indicate regions of young thermokarst, comprise up to 11% of the total lake area and experience high (30%) seasonal variations. In situ observations of the grassland dynamics show their synchronous cyclic variability with the lake extent and a general increasing trend for their productivity since 1985. Around 50% of these dynamics can be explained by the amount of pre-winter precipitation with a delay of two years. We explain this delay through the buffering effect of watershed soils. The cyclic variability of alas hydro-ecosystems strongly affects the local agriculture, which is based on horse and cattle breeding. We estimate that these alas grasslands can provide enough forage supply for local communities. However, the real alas yield is several times less than the theoretical value because of grassland degradation that is caused by recent thermokarst and waterlogging in the most productive phytocenosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The within-match patterns of locomotor efficiency during professional soccer match play: Implications for injury risk?

PubMed

Barrett, Steve; Midgley, Adrian; Reeves, Matt; Joel, Tom; Franklin, Ed; Heyworth, Rob; Garrett, Andrew; Lovell, Ric

2016-10-01

The principle aim of the current study was to examine within-match patterns of locomotor efficiency in professional soccer, determined as the ratio between tri-axial accelerometer data (PlayerLoad™) and locomotor activities. Between match variability and determinants of PlayerLoad™ during match play were also assessed. A single cohort, observational study. Tri-axial accelerometer data (PlayerLoad™) was recorded during 86 competitive soccer matches in 63 English championship players (574 match observations). Accelerometer data accumulated (PlayerLoad Vector Magnitude [PLVM]) from the individual-component planes of PlayerLoad™ (anterior-posterior PlayerLoad™ [PLAP], medial-lateral PlayerLoad™ [PLML] and vertical PlayerLoad™ [PLV]), together with locomotor activity (Total Distance Covered [TDC]) were determined in 15-min segments. Locomotor efficiency was calculated using the ratio of PLVM and TDC (PlayerLoad™ per metre). The proportion of variance explaining the within-match trends in PLVM, PLAP, APML, APv, and TDC was determined owing to matches, individual players, and positional role. PLVM, PLAP, APML, APv and TDC reduced after the initial 15-min match period (p=0.001; η(2)=0.22-0.43, large effects). PL:TDC increased in the last 15min of each half (p=0.001; η(2)=0.25, large effect). The variance in PLVM during soccer match-play was explained by individual players (63.9%; p=0.001) and between-match variation (21.6%; p=0.001), but not positional role (14.1%; p=0.364). Locomotor efficiency is lower during the latter stages of each half of competitive soccer match-play, a trend synonymous with observations of increased injury incidence and fatigue in these periods. Locomotor efficiency may be a valuable metric to identify fatigue and heightened injury risk during soccer training and match-play. Copyright © 2015 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Further Evidence of Increasing Diversity of Plasmodium vivax in the Republic of Korea in Recent Years.

PubMed

Kim, Jung-Yeon; Goo, Youn-Kyoung; Zo, Young-Gun; Ji, So-Young; Trimarsanto, Hidayat; To, Sheren; Clark, Taane G; Price, Ric N; Auburn, Sarah

2016-01-01

Vivax malaria was successfully eliminated from the Republic of Korea (ROK) in the late 1970s but re-emerged in 1993. Two decades later as the ROK enters the final stages of malaria elimination, dedicated surveillance of the local P. vivax population is critical. We apply a population genetic approach to gauge P. vivax transmission dynamics in the ROK between 2010 and 2012. P. vivax positive blood samples from 98 autochthonous cases were collected from patients attending health centers in the ROK in 2010 (n = 27), 2011 (n = 48) and 2012 (n = 23). Parasite genotyping was undertaken at 9 tandem repeat markers. Although not reaching significance, a trend of increasing population diversity was observed from 2010 (HE = 0.50 ± 0.11) to 2011 (HE = 0.56 ± 0.08) and 2012 (HE = 0.60 ± 0.06). Conversely, linkage disequilibrium declined during the same period: IAS = 0.15 in 2010 (P = 0.010), 0.09 in 2011 (P = 0.010) and 0.05 in 2012 (P = 0.010). In combination with data from other ROK studies undertaken between 1994 and 2007, our results are consistent with increasing parasite divergence since re-emergence. Polyclonal infections were rare (3% infections) suggesting that local out-crossing alone was unlikely to explain the increased divergence. Cases introduced from an external reservoir may therefore have contributed to the increased diversity. Aside from one isolate, all infections carried a short MS20 allele (142 or 149 bp), not observed in other studies in tropical endemic countries despite high diversity, inferring that these regions are unlikely reservoirs. Whilst a number of factors may explain the observed population genetic trends, the available evidence suggests that an external geographic reservoir with moderate diversity sustains the majority of P. vivax infection in the ROK, with important implications for malaria elimination.

Intelligibility of clear speech: effect of instruction.

PubMed

Lam, Jennifer; Tjaden, Kris

2013-10-01

The authors investigated how clear speech instructions influence sentence intelligibility. Twelve speakers produced sentences in habitual, clear, hearing impaired, and overenunciate conditions. Stimuli were amplitude normalized and mixed with multitalker babble for orthographic transcription by 40 listeners. The main analysis investigated percentage-correct intelligibility scores as a function of the 4 conditions and speaker sex. Additional analyses included listener response variability, individual speaker trends, and an alternate intelligibility measure: proportion of content words correct. Relative to the habitual condition, the overenunciate condition was associated with the greatest intelligibility benefit, followed by the hearing impaired and clear conditions. Ten speakers followed this trend. The results indicated different patterns of clear speech benefit for male and female speakers. Greater listener variability was observed for speakers with inherently low habitual intelligibility compared to speakers with inherently high habitual intelligibility. Stable proportions of content words were observed across conditions. Clear speech instructions affected the magnitude of the intelligibility benefit. The instruction to overenunciate may be most effective in clear speech training programs. The findings may help explain the range of clear speech intelligibility benefit previously reported. Listener variability analyses suggested the importance of obtaining multiple listener judgments of intelligibility, especially for speakers with inherently low habitual intelligibility.

More Frequent Weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex States Linked to Cold Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretschmer, M.; Coumou, D.; Agel, L. A.; Barlow, M. A.; Tziperman, E.; Cohen, J. L.

2016-12-01

The extra-tropical stratosphere in boreal winter is characterized by a strong circumpolar westerly jet, referred to as the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) which confines cold temperatures at high latitudes. Previous studies showed that a weak SPV can lead to cold-air outbreaks in the mid-latitudes but the exact relationships and mechanisms are still unclear. Particularly, it is unclear whether stratospheric variability has contributed to the observed anomalous cooling trends in Central and eastern Asia. Using hierarchical clustering, we show that over the last 37 years, the frequency of weak vortex states in mid to late winter (January and February) has increased significantly accompanied by subsequent cold surface temperatures in the mid-latitudes. Furthermore, we show that stratospheric and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability can explain most of the observed spatially heterogenic winter temperature trends in the era of Arctic amplification but the contribution of ENSO is less important. We show that the weakening of the SPV was related to a strengthening Siberian high and poleward heat flux. These findings support the hypothesis that a warming Arctic has weakened the SPV and thereby increased the frequency of cold-air outbreaks.

Assessment of the Effect of Air Pollution Controls on Trends in Shortwave Radiation over the United States from 1995 through 2010 from Multiple Observation Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gan, Chuen-Meei; Pleim, Jonathan; Mathur, Rohit

2014-02-14

Long term datasets of total (all-sky) and clear-sky downwelling shortwave (SW) radiation, cloud cover fraction (cloudiness) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) are analyzed together with aerosol concentration from several networks (e.g. SURFRAD, CASTNET, IMPROVE and ARM) in the United States (US). Seven states with varying climatology are selected to better understand the effect of aerosols and clouds on SW radiation. This analysis aims to test the hypothesis that the reductions in anthropogenic aerosol burden resulting from substantial reductions in emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides over the past 15 years across the US has caused an increase in surfacemore » SW radiation. We show that the total and clear-sky downwelling SW radiation from seven sites have increasing trends except Penn State which shows no tendency in clear-sky SW radiation. After investigating several confounding factors, the causes can be due to the geography of the site, aerosol distribution, heavy air traffic and increasing cloudiness. Moreover, we assess the relationship between total column AOD with surface aerosol concentration to test our hypothesis. In our findings, the trends of clear-sky SW radiation, AOD, and aerosol concentration from the sites in eastern US agree well with our hypothesis. However, the sites in western US demonstrate increasing AOD associated with mostly increasing trends in surface aerosol concentration. At these sites, the changes in aerosol burden and/or direct aerosol effects alone cannot explain the observed changes in SW radiation, but other factors need to be considered such as cloudiness, aerosol vertical profiles and elevated plumes.« less

Combined role of heat and water stresses on wheat, maize and rice inter-annual variability and trend from 1980 to 2010.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zampieri, M.; Ceglar, A., , Dr; Dentener, F., , Dr; van den Berg, M., , Dr; Toreti, A., , Dr

2017-12-01

Heat waves and drought are often considered the most damaging climatic stressors for wheat and maize. In this study, based on data derived from observations, we characterize and attribute the effects of these climate extremes on wheat and maize yield anomalies (at global and national scales) with respect to the mean trend from 1980 to 2010. Using a combination of up-to-date heat wave and drought indexes (i.e. the Heat Magnitude Day, HMD, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), we have developed a composite indicator (i.e. the Combined Stress Index, CSI) that is able to capture the spatio-temporal characteristics of the underlying physical processes in the different agro-climatic regions of the world. At the global level, our diagnostic explains the 42% and the 50% of the inter-annual wheat and maize production variabilities, respectively. The relative importance of heat stress and drought in determining the yield anomalies depends on the region. Compared to maize, and in contrast to common perception, water excess affects wheat production more than drought in several countries. The index definition can be modified in order to quantify the role of combined heat and water stress events occurrence in determining the recorded yield trends as well. Climate change is increasingly limiting maize yields in several countries, especially in Europe and China. A comparable opposite signal, albeit less statistically significant, is found for the USA, which is the main world producer. As for rice, we provide a statistical evidence pointing out to the importance of considering the interactions with the horizontal surface waters fluxes carried out by the rivers. In fact, compared to wheat and maize, the CSI statistical skills in explaining rice production variability are quite reduced. This issue is particularly relevant in paddy fields and flooded lowlands where rice is mainly grown. Therefore, we have modified the procedure including a proxy for the surface freshwater availability i.e. the Standardized River Discharge Index (SRDI), defined in this study. The modified CSI explains the 35% of the global rice production inter-annual anomalies.

Residual depth anomalies and the origin of the Australian-Antarctic discordance zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marks, Karen M.; Vogt, Peter R.; Hall, Stuart A.

1990-10-01

A new, high resolution depth anomaly map covering the anomalously deep and rough Australian-Antarctic Discordance (AAD) has been constructed using crustal ages derived from a detailed aeromagnetic survey. The map shows a large, arcuate-shaped, negative depth anomaly that is centered on the Southeast Indian Ridge and trends NNE across the Australian plate (SSE across the Antarctic plate). Within this broad scale feature, two prominent depth anomaly lows are observed at 45°S, 128°E (the northern flank) and 54°S, 125°E (the southern flank). Both lows are associated with 15 Ma oceanic crust. The observed depth anomaly patterns are compared with the distinctive patterns predicted by coldspot, downwelling limbs of convection cells, and thin crust models of the discordance source. The observed depth anomaly does not result from absolute plate motions over a fixed coldspot source because the predicted ENE trend on the Antarctic plate is not in agreement with the SSE trend observed. The symmetric arrangement of the large-scale depth anomaly and prominent lows about the ridge axis suggests instead a source that has varied in strength but remained located at the ridge axis as the ridge migrated northeastward in the absolute reference frame. The organized pattern of elongated depth anomaly highs and lows predicted for upper mantle convection (cells) is not evident in the observed depth anomaly map. Thus a convergence of downwelling limbs of convection cells beneath the discordance is not indicated. If the source of cooler upwelling that produces less magma and hence thin crust has not varied over time, nor migrated along the ridge, then the predicted depth anomaly would persist unchanged with distance from the ridge axis, and trend in the direction of relative plate motion (parallel to fracture zones). The observed depth anomaly trends obliquely across fracture zones and changes in both amplitude and location relative to the ridge axis, and is therefore not consistent with cool upwelling producing thin crust. To explain the features of the depth anomaly map, we propose that asthenospheric material flowing from the Amsterdam hotspot in the west, and the Balleny and Tasmantid hotspots in the east, collides within the discordance. Propagating rifts converging on the AAD provide evidence for such asthenospheric flow. Attenuated shear velocities beneath the George V fracture zone complex, and lavas geochemically identical to those from propagating rifts associated with hotspots, suggest a thermal anomaly producing additional asthenospheric flow east of the AAD. The increased flow and greater proximity of the discordance to the thermal anomaly and hotspots to the east produce a higher pressure gradient, and hence greater driving force, which results in a westward migration of the collision zone with time. Seafloor spreading over the westward moving collision zone has produced the observed arcuate-shaped anomaly with the accompanying oblique depth anomaly trends. We cannot decipher from depth anomalies alone whether the converging flows downwell within the AAD or simply mix with upwelling materials.

Hierarchical mechanism of development of wealth and structure for a premodern local society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsuo, Miki Y.

2011-06-01

We propose a hierarchical model of social development composed of two associated hierarchies, each of which describes economic and noneconomic activities in society, respectively. The model is designed to explain the development of wealth distribution and social structure over 50 years in a premodern Japanese local society. Data analysis shows that the wealth distribution has a well-known universal power-law tail throughout the observed period, while the Pareto index gradually decreases with time. We further show that the noneconomic social properties, such as the household number, average family size, and number of collaterals in a household, of the local society, also have decreasing or increasing trends throughout the observed period. We show that the hierarchical model consistently demonstrates the correlations of these economic and noneconomic properties.

Gene Tree Discordance Does Not Explain Away the Temporal Decline of Convergence in Mammalian Protein Sequence Evolution.

PubMed

Zou, Zhengting; Zhang, Jianzhi

2017-07-01

Several authors reported lower frequencies of protein sequence convergence between more distantly related evolutionary lineages and attributed this trend to epistasis, which renders the acceptable amino acids at a site more different and convergence less likely in more divergent lineages. A recent primate study, however, suggested that this trend is at least partially and potentially entirely an artifact of gene tree discordance (GTD). Here, we demonstrate in a genome-wide data set from 17 mammals that the temporal trend remains (1) upon the control of the GTD level, (2) in genes whose genealogies are concordant with the species tree, and (3) for convergent changes, which are extremely unlikely to be caused by GTD. Similar results are observed in a comparable data set of 12 fruit flies in some but not all of these tests. We conclude that, at least in some cases, the temporal decline of convergence is genuine, reflecting an impact of epistasis on protein evolution. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Large-scale estimates of gross primary production on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau based on remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, M., II; Yuan, W.; Dong, J.; Zhang, F.; Cai, W.; Li, H.

2017-12-01

Vegetation gross primary production (GPP) is an important variable for the carbon cycle on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Based on the measurements from twelve eddy covariance (EC) sites, we validated a light use efficiency model (i.e. EC-LUE) to evaluate the spatial-temporal patterns of GPP and the effect of environmental variables on QTP. The EC-LUE model explained 85.4% of the daily observed GPP variations through all of the twelve EC sites, and characterized very well the seasonal changes of GPP. Annual GPP over the entire QTP ranged from 575 to 703 Tg C, and showed a significantly increasing trend from 1982 to 2013. However, there were large spatial heterogeneities in long-term trends of GPP. Throughout the entire QTP, air temperature TA increase had a greater influence than solar radiation and PREC changes on productivity. Moreover, our results highlight the large uncertainties of previous GPP estimates due to insufficient parameterization and validations. When compared with GPP estimates of the EC-LUE model, most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) GPP products overestimate the magnitude and increasing trends of regional GPP, which potentially impact the feedback of ecosystems to regional climate changes.

Outcomes of Global Environmentalism: Longitudinal and Cross-National Trends in Chemical Fertilizer and Pesticide Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shorette, Kristen

2012-01-01

Previous research identifies changing world cultural norms as the impetus for a worldwide trend promoting environmentalism. However, the extent to which countries comply with the norms promoted and codified by environmental organizations and treaties has been less rigorously tested. Suspected noncompliance is generally explained as "decoupling"…

The Use of Multiple Regression and Trend Analysis to Understand Enrollment Fluctuations. AIR Forum 1979 Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, S. Duke; Greenberg, Barry

The development of a predictive equation capable of explaining a significant percentage of enrollment variability at Florida International University is described. A model utilizing trend analysis and a multiple regression approach to enrollment forecasting was adapted to investigate enrollment dynamics at the university. Four independent…

Teaching the Evolution of the Mind: Current Findings, Trends, and Controversies in Evolutionary Psychology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liddle, James R.; Shackelford, Todd K.

2011-01-01

As the burgeoning field of evolutionary psychology continues to gain exposure and acceptance throughout the psychological community, it is important to explain this field clearly and accurately to students. This article discusses some recent findings and trends in evolutionary psychological research to aid instructors in their efforts to provide…

Drop Height and Volume Control the Mobility of Long-Runout Landslides on the Earth and Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Brandon C.; Campbell, Charles S.

2017-12-01

Long-runout landslides are landslides with volumes of 105 m3 or more, which move much farther from their source than expected. The observation that Martian landslides are generally less mobile than terrestrial landslides offers important evidence regarding the mechanism responsible for the high mobility of long-runout landslides. Here we simulate landslides as granular flow using a soft-particle discrete element model. We show that while surface gravity plays a negligible role, observed differences in fall height naturally reproduce the observed differences in mobility of Martian and terrestrial landslides. We also demonstrate that landslides on Iapetus may fit this trend. Our simulations do not include any fluid and indicate that a mechanism similar to acoustic fluidization can explain the high mobility of long-runout landslides. This implies that long-runout landslides on Mars should not be considered as evidence for ice, saturated clays, or liquid water.

Mortality from circulatory diseases, especially ischaemic heart disease in sea pilots and boatmen in Sweden 1951-84: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed Central

Nyström, L; Kolmodin-Hedman, B; Jönsson, E; Thomasson, L

1990-01-01

A cohort of 1455 sea pilots and boatmen employed after 1921 was established. Those identified and alive in 1951 (n = 1323) were linked to the Swedish cause of death register 1951-84. In 21 352 person-years 383 deaths were observed among sea pilots compared with 379.3 expected (SMR = 101;95% CI between 99 and 112) and in 12,127 person-years the observed number of deaths among boatmen was 136, expected 135.9 (SMR = 100) when Swedish men were used as a reference population. For ischaemic heart disease (IHD) (ICD-8: 410-414) the SMR was equal to 96 (obs = 131, exp = 137.2) for sea pilots and 91 (obs = 44, exp = 48.4) for boatmen. No trend over time or geographical differences could be observed. A healthy worker effect could not explain why there was no excess mortality from IHD. PMID:2310716

Mercury trends in ringed seals (Phoca hispida) from the western Canadian Arctic since 1973: associations with length of ice-free season.

PubMed

Gaden, A; Ferguson, S H; Harwood, L; Melling, H; Stern, G A

2009-05-15

We examined a unique time series of ringed seal (Phoca hispida) samples collected from a single location in the western Canadian Arctic between 1973 and 2007 to test for changes in total mercury (THg) in muscle tissue associated with (1) year and (2) length of ice-free season. We found no temporal trend with muscle THg whereas a curvilinear relationship existed with the length of ice-free season: seals attaimed higher THg in short (2 months) and long (5 months) ice-free seasons. delta 15N and delta13C in muscle tissue did not illustrate significant trends with ice-free days. We estimated that the turnover time of THg in muscle was about twice as long as stable isotope turnover in muscle, possibly explaining the lack of trend with stable isotopes in association with ice-free duration. Our discussion explains how summer environmental conditions may influence the composition of prey (mercury exposure) available to ringed seals. Results offer insight into how marine mammals may respond to directional changes in the Arctic ice-free season.

Day of the week lost time occupational injury trends in the US by gender and industry and their implications for work scheduling.

PubMed

Brogmus, G E

2007-03-01

While there is a growing body of research on the impact of work schedules on the risk of occupational injuries, there has been little investigation into the impact that the day of the week might have. The present research was completed to explore day of the week trends, reasons for such trends and the corresponding implications for work scheduling. Data for the number of injuries and illnesses involving days away from work (lost time; LT) in 2004 were provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Office of Safety and Health Statistics. Data from the American Time Use Survey database were used to estimate work hours in 2004. From these two data sources, the rate of LT injuries and illnesses (per 200 000 work hours) by day of the week, industry sector and gender were estimated. The analysis revealed clear differences by day of the week, gender and major industry sector. Sundays had the highest rate overall--nearly 37% higher than the average of the remaining days, Monday to Saturday. Mondays had the next highest rate followed closely by Saturdays. This pattern was not the same for males and females. For males, Mondays had the highest LT rate (27% higher than the average of all other days) with all remaining days having essentially the same rate. For females, Sundays and Saturdays had much higher LT rates--122% and 60% higher, respectively, than the average weekday rate. There were also differences by industry and differences between genders by industry. The present analysis suggests that several factors may be contributing to the weekend and Monday trends observed. Lower-tenured (and younger) workers on the weekends, lower female management/supervision and second jobs on the weekend seem to be contributors to the high Saturday and Sunday LT rates. Differences in day of the week employment by industry did not account for the trends observed. Fraud and overtime also could not be confirmed as contributing to these trends. Monday trends were more complex to explain, with possible explanations including non-work-related weekend injuries being reported on Mondays, soft-tissue symptoms becoming more noticeable on Mondays, greater Monday morning flexion risk and reduced supervision in the construction industry on Mondays. Interpretation of these trends and the implications for work scheduling are discussed.

Trends in Spending by the Department of Defense for Operation and Maintenance

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-01-01

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO Trends in Spending by the Department of Defense for Operation and Maintenance JANUARY 2017...Funding? g the Growth in O&M Funding cheme gorization Scheme in Explaining Trends in O&M Funding ed ration and Maintenance Between 1980 and 2015 Maintenance ...by Category of Spending ration and Maintenance Between 2000 and 2012, by Category From 2000 to 2012 in Categories That Are Difficult to Track CBO

Solute Transport Dynamics in a Large Hyporheic Corridor System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zachara, J. M.; Chen, X.; Murray, C. J.; Shuai, P.; Rizzo, C.; Song, X.; Dai, H.

2016-12-01

A hyporheic corridor is an extended zone of groundwater surface water-interaction that occurs within permeable aquifer sediments in hydrologic continuity with a river. These systems are dynamic and tightly coupled to river stage variations that may occur over variable time scales. Here we describe the behavior of a persistent uranium (U) contaminant plume that exists within the hyporheic corridor of a large, managed river system - the Columbia River. Temporally dense monitoring data were collected for a two year period from wells located within the plume at varying distances up to 400 m from the river shore. Groundwater U originates from desorption of residual U in the lower vadose zone during periods of high river stage and associated elevated water table. U is weakly adsorbed to aquifer sediments because of coarse texture, and along with specific conductance, serves as a tracer of vadose zone source terms, solute transport pathways, and groundwater-surface water mixing. Complex U concentration and specific conductance trends were observed for all wells that varied with distance from the river shoreline and the river hydrograph, although trends for each well were generally repeatable for each year during the monitoring period. Statistical clustering analysis was used to identify four groups of wells that exhibited common trends in dissolved U and specific conductance. A flow and reactive transport code, PFLOTRAN, was implemented within a hydrogeologic model of the groundwater-surface water interaction zone to provide insights on hydrologic processes controlling monitoring trends and cluster behavior. The hydrogeologic model was informed by extensive subsurface characterization, with the spatially variable topography of a basal aquitard being one of several key parameters. Numerical tracer experiments using PFLOTRAN revealed the presence of temporally complex flow trajectories, spatially variable domains of groundwater - river water mixing, and locations of enhanced groundwater - river exchange that helped to explain monitoring trends. Observations and modeling results are integrated into a conceptual model of this highly complex and dynamic system with applicability to hyporheic corridor systems elsewhere.

Increasing organic C and N fluxes from a northern Boreal river basin - monitoring and modelling suggest climate related controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lepistö, A.; Futter, M.; Kortelainen, P.

2012-04-01

Increasing trends in total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in lakes and streams across northern Europe and North America have been reported. Various hypotheses including enhanced decomposition of organic soils, changes in hydrology and flow paths, decreased acid deposition and land use changes have been put forward to explain the widespread occurrence of this phenomenon. Both observational and modelling studies are needed to identify the most important drivers and relevant processes controlling observed trends in TOC concentrations. Typically, TOC concentrations in Finnish rivers and lakes are high. The Simojoki river basin (3160 km2) is located in the northern Boreal zone of Finland and experiences low, declining sulphate deposition and limited other human impacts. Forest harvest, land drainage and ditch maintenance are the main land management activities in the catchment. Long-term changes (30-40 years) and seasonal trends of total organic nitrogen (TON) and carbon (TOC) concentrations and fluxes in the Simojoki river system were studied. Concentrations of TOC and TON increased particularly during high flows. TOC concentrations are slowly but continuously increasing, fluctuating between droughts and wet periods. The highest concentrations were detected in 1998-2000 during a period of very high flows, after the drought period 1994-1997. Trends in concentrations of TOC and TON in Simojoki were not linked to declines in sulphate deposition but were more related to trends in climate and hydrology. The autumn season is particularly sensitive to climate change impacts. The INCA-C model was applied to simulate TOC dynamics in the catchment. Model results showed that climate change driven patterns in runoff and soil moisture and soil temperature were more important than temporal patterns of sulphate deposition and land management in controlling surface water TOC concentrations. The possible factors behind changes of TOC and TON concentrations and increasing fluxes to the coastal areas are discussed.

Mortality, Recruitment and Change of Desert Tree Populations in a Hyper-Arid Environment

PubMed Central

Andersen, Gidske L.; Krzywinski, Knut

2007-01-01

Background Long-term vegetation changes in hyper-arid areas have long been neglected. Mortality, recruitment and change in populations of the ecologically and culturally important and drought persistent Acacia tortilis and Balanites aegyptiaca are therefore estimated in the Eastern Desert of Egypt, and are related to the primary agents of change, water conditions and human intervention. Methodology A change analysis using high-resolution Corona images (1965) in combination with field data (2003) is the basis for recruitment, mortality and change estimates. For assessing the influence of water conditions on patterns in recruitment and survival, different types of generalized linear models are tested. Conclusions The overall trend in population size in that part of the Eastern Desert studied here is negative. At some sites this negative trend is alarming, because the reduction in mature trees is substantial (>50%) at the same time as recruitment is nearly absent. At a few sites there is a positive trend and better recruitment. Frequent observations of sprouting in saplings indicate that this is an important mechanism to increase their persistence. It is the establishment itself that seems to be the main challenge in the recruitment process. There are indications that hydrological variables and surface water in particular can explain some of the observed pattern in mortality, but our results indicate that direct human intervention, i.e., charcoal production, is the main cause of tree mortality in the Eastern Desert. PMID:17299588

The changing epidemiology of infantile hypertrophic pyloric stenosis in Scotland.

PubMed

Sommerfield, T; Chalmers, J; Youngson, G; Heeley, C; Fleming, M; Thomson, G

2008-12-01

The aetiology of infantile hypertrophic pyloric stenosis (IHPS) has not been fully elucidated. Since the 1990s, a sharp decline in IHPS has been reported in various countries. Recent research from Sweden reported a correlation between falling rates of IHPS and of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). This was attributed to a reduction in the number of infants sleeping in the prone position following the "Back to Sleep" campaign. To describe the changing epidemiology of IHPS in Scotland, to examine the relationship between IHPS and SIDS rates and to examine trends in other factors that may explain the observed reduction in IHPS incidence. Incidence rates of IHPS and SIDS were derived from routine data and their relationship analysed. Trends in mean maternal age, maternal smoking, mean birth weight and breastfeeding rates were also examined. The whole of Scotland between 1981 and 2004. IHPS incidence fell from 4.4 to 1.4 per 1000 live births in Scotland between 1981 and 2004. Rates were consistently higher in males, although the overall incidence patterns in males and females were similar. Rates showed a positive relationship with deprivation. The fall in the incidence of IHPS preceded the fall in SIDS by 2 years and the incidence of SIDS displayed less variability than that of IHPS. Significant temporal trends were also observed in other maternal and infant characteristics. There has been a marked reduction in Scotland's IHPS incidence, but this is unlikely to be a consequence of a change in infant sleeping position.

Trends and determinants of inequities in childhood stunting in Bangladesh from 1996/7 to 2014.

PubMed

Rabbani, Atonu; Khan, Akib; Yusuf, Sifat; Adams, Alayne

2016-11-16

We explore long-term trends and determinants of socioeconomic inequities in chronic childhood undernutrition measured by stunting among under-five children in Bangladesh. Given that one in three children remain stunted in Bangladesh, the socioeconomic mapping of stunting prevalence may be critical in designing public policies and interventions to eradicate childhood undernutrition. Six rounds of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data are utilized, spanning the period 1996/97 to 2014. Using recognized measures of absolute and relative inequality (namely, absolute and relative difference, concentration curve and index), we quantify trends, and decompose changes in the concentration index to identify factors that best explain observed dynamics. Despite remarkable improvements in average nutritional status over the last two decades, socio-economic inequalities have persisted, and according to some measures, even worsened. For example, expressed as rate-ratios, the relative inequality in under-five stunting increased by 56% and the concentration index more than doubled between 1996/97 and 2014. Decomposition analyses find that wealth and maternal factors such as mothers' schooling and short stature are major contributors to observed socio-economic inequalities in child undernutrition and their changes over time. Reflecting on recent success around socioeconomic and gender equity in child mortality, and the weak legacy of nutrition policy in Bangladesh, we suggest that nutrition programming energies be focused specifically on the most disadvantaged and applied at scale to close socioeconomic gaps in stunting prevalence.

Maternal diet and risk of astrocytic glioma in children: a report from the Childrens Cancer Group (United States and Canada)

PubMed

Bunin, G R; Kuijten, R R; Boesel, C P; Buckley, J D; Meadows, A T

1994-03-01

N-nitroso compounds and their precursors, nitrites and nitrates, have been hypothesized as risk factors, and vitamins C and E, which inhibit N-nitroso formation, as protective factors for brain tumors. A case-control study of maternal diet during pregnancy and risk of astrocytoma, the most common childhood brain tumor, was conducted by the Childrens Cancer Group. The study included 155 cases under age six at diagnosis and the same number of matched controls selected by random-digit dialing. A trend was observed for consumption of cured meats, which contain preformed nitrosamines (a class of N-nitroso compounds) and their precursors (adjusted odds ratio [OR] for highest quartile of intake relative to lowest = 1.7, P trend = 0.10). However, no strong trends were observed for nitrosamine (OR = 0.8, P = 0.60); nitrite (OR = 1.3, P = 0.54); nitrate (OR = 0.7, P = 0.43); vitamin C (OR = 0.7, P = 0.37); or vitamin E (OR = 0.7, P = 0.48). Iron supplements were associated with a significant decrease in risk (OR = 0.5, 95 percent confidence interval = 0.3-0.8). The effect of several dietary factors differed by income level, making interpretation of the results difficult. Future research should investigate the effect of dietary components not assessed in this study, as these may explain the disparate effects by income level. The results of this study provide limited support for the nitrosamine hypothesis.

Tropical pacing of Antarctic sea ice increase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, D. P.

2015-12-01

One reason why coupled climate model simulations generally do not reproduce the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent may be that their internally generated climate variability does not sync with the observed phases of phenomena like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and ENSO. For example, it is unlikely for a free-running coupled model simulation to capture the shift of the PDO from its positive to negative phase during 1998, and the subsequent ~15 year duration of the negative PDO phase. In previously presented work based on atmospheric models forced by observed tropical SSTs and stratospheric ozone, we demonstrated that tropical variability is key to explaining the wind trends over the Southern Ocean during the past ~35 years, particularly in the Ross, Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, the regions of the largest trends in sea ice extent and ice season duration. Here, we extend this idea to coupled model simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in which the evolution of SST anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific is constrained to match the observations. This ensemble of 10 "tropical pacemaker" simulations shows a more realistic evolution of Antarctic sea ice anomalies than does its unconstrained counterpart, the CESM Large Ensemble (both sets of runs include stratospheric ozone depletion and other time-dependent radiative forcings). In particular, the pacemaker runs show that increased sea ice in the eastern Ross Sea is associated with a deeper Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) and stronger westerlies over the south Pacific. These circulation patterns in turn are linked with the negative phase of the PDO, characterized by negative SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific. The timing of tropical decadal variability with respect to ozone depletion further suggests a strong role for tropical variability in the recent acceleration of the Antarctic sea ice trend, as ozone depletion stabilized by late 1990s, prior to the most recent major shift in tropical climate. In the pacemaker runs, the positive sea ice trend in the eastern Ross Sea is stronger during the most recent period (~2000-2014) than it is during period of rapid ozone depletion (~1980-1996).

The effect of an East Pacific Rise offset on the formation of secondary cracks ahead of the Cocos-Nazca Rift at the Galapagos Triple Junction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, D. K.; Montesi, L. G.; Schouten, H.; Zhu, W.

2011-12-01

A succession of short-lived, E-W trending cracks at the Galapagos Triple Junction north and south of the Cocos-Nazca (C-N) Rift, has been explained by a simple crack interaction model. The locations of where the cracks initiate are controlled by tensile stresses generated at the East Pacific Rise (EPR) by two interacting cracks: One representing the north-south trending EPR, and the other the large, westward propagating C-N Rift, whose tip is separated from the EPR by a distance D. The model predicts symmetric cracking at the EPR north and south of the C-N Rift tip. Symmetry in the distribution of cracks north and south of the C-N Rift is observed and especially remarkable between 2.5 and 1.5 Ma when the rapid jumping of cracks toward the C-N Rift appears synchronous. The rapid jumping can be explained by decreasing D, which means that the tip of the C-N Rift was moving closer to the EPR. Symmetry of cracking breaks down at 1.5 Ma, however, with the establishment of the Dietz Deep Rift, the southern boundary of the Galapagos microplate. Symmetry of cracking also breaks down on older crust to the east between about 100 35'W and 100 45'W (about 2.6 Ma) where a rapid jumping of cracks toward the C-N Rift is observed in the south cracking region. There is no evidence of similar rapid jumping in the north cracking region. It could be simply that the response to changing the value of D is not always as predicted. It could also be that the shape of the EPR has not always been symmetric about the C-N Rift, as assumed in the model. Currently, an overlapping spreading center with a 15 km east-west offset between the limbs of the EPR has formed at 1 50'N. We assess the importance of the geometry of the EPR on the crack interaction model. The model has been modified to include a ridge offset similar to what is observed today. We find that the region of stress enhancement at the EPR (where cracks initiate) is subdued south of the C-N Rift tip because of the EPR offset. It is possible, therefore, that the asymmetry in cracking observed since about 1.5 Ma may be explained in part by the presence of a ridge offset south of the C-N Rift tip.

Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, Marika M.; Landrum, Laura; Kostov, Yavor; Marshall, John

2017-09-01

We assess the sea ice response to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies for pre-industrial control simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Consistent with work by Ferreira et al. (J Clim 28:1206-1226, 2015. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00313.1), the models generally simulate a two-timescale response to positive SAM anomalies, with an initial increase in ice followed by an eventual sea ice decline. However, the models differ in the cross-over time at which the change in ice response occurs, in the overall magnitude of the response, and in the spatial distribution of the response. Late twentieth century Antarctic sea ice trends in CMIP5 simulations are related in part to different modeled responses to SAM variability acting on different time-varying transient SAM conditions. This explains a significant fraction of the spread in simulated late twentieth century southern hemisphere sea ice extent trends across the model simulations. Applying the modeled sea ice response to SAM variability but driven by the observed record of SAM suggests that variations in the austral summer SAM, which has exhibited a significant positive trend, have driven a modest sea ice decrease. However, additional work is needed to narrow the considerable model uncertainty in the climate response to SAM variability and its implications for 20th-21st century trends.

Trends and spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheung, W.H.; Senay, G.B.; Singh, A.

2008-01-01

As a country whose economy is heavily dependent on low-productivity rainfed agriculture, rainfall trends are often cited as one of the more important factors in explaining various socio-economic problems such as food insecurity. Therefore, in order to help policymakers and developers make more informed decisions, this study investigated the temporal dynamics of rainfall and its spatial distribution within Ethiopia. Changes in rainfall were examined using data from 134 stations in 13 watersheds between 1960 and 2002. The variability and trends in seasonal and annual rainfall were analysed at the watershed scale with data (1) from all available years, and (2) excluding years that lacked observations from at least 25% of the gauges. Similar analyses were also performed at the gauge, regional, and national levels. By regressing annual watershed rainfall on time, results from the one-sample t-test show no significant changes in rainfall for any of the watersheds examined. However, in our regressions of seasonal rainfall averages against time, we found a significant decline in June to September rainfall (i.e. Kiremt) for the Baro-Akobo, Omo-Ghibe, Rift Valley, and Southern Blue Nile watersheds located in the southwestern and central parts of Ethiopia. While the gauge level analysis showed that certain gauge stations experienced recent changes in rainfall, these trends are not necessarily reflected at the watershed or regional levels.

Rapid decline in carbon monoxide emissions and export from East Asia between years 2005 and 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Bo; Chevallier, Frederic; Ciais, Philippe; Yin, Yi; Deeter, Merritt N.; Worden, Helen M.; Wang, Yilong; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin

2018-04-01

Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite and ground-based carbon monoxide (CO) measurements both suggest a widespread downward trend in CO concentrations over East Asia during the period 2005–2016. This negative trend is inconsistent with global bottom-up inventories of CO emissions, which show a small increase or stable emissions in this region. We try to reconcile the observed CO trend with emission inventories using an atmospheric inversion of the MOPITT CO data that estimates emissions from primary sources, secondary production, and chemical sinks of CO. The atmospheric inversion indicates a ~ ‑2% yr‑1 decrease in emissions from primary sources in East Asia from 2005–2016. The decreasing emissions are mainly caused by source reductions in China. The regional MEIC inventory for China is the only bottom up estimate consistent with the inversion-diagnosed decrease of CO emissions. According to the MEIC data, decreasing CO emissions from four main sectors (iron and steel industries, residential sources, gasoline-powered vehicles, and construction materials industries) in China explain 76% of the inversion-based trend of East Asian CO emissions. This result suggests that global inventories underestimate the recent decrease of CO emission factors in China which occurred despite increasing consumption of carbon-based fuels, and is driven by rapid technological changes with improved combustion efficiency and emission control measures.

Variability of nutrients and carbon dioxide in the Antarctic Intermediate Water between 1990 and 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panassa, Essowè; Santana-Casiano, J. Magdalena; González-Dávila, Melchor; Hoppema, Mario; van Heuven, Steven M. A. C.; Völker, Christoph; Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter; Hauck, Judith

2018-03-01

Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) formation constitutes an important mechanism for the export of macronutrients out of the Southern Ocean that fuels primary production in low latitudes. We used quality-controlled gridded data from five hydrographic cruises between 1990 and 2014 to examine decadal variability in nutrients and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the AAIW (neutral density range 27 < γ n < 27.4) along the Prime Meridian. Significant positive trends were found in DIC (0.70 ± 0.4 μmol kg- 1 year- 1) and nitrate (0.08 ± 0.06 μ mol kg- 1 year- 1) along with decreasing trends in temperature (- 0.015 ± 0.01∘C year- 1) and salinity (- 0.003 ± 0.002 year- 1) in the AAIW. Accompanying this is an increase in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU, 0.16 ± 0.07 μ mol kg- 1 year- 1). We estimated that 75% of the DIC change has an anthropogenic origin. The remainder of the trends support a scenario of a strengthening of the upper-ocean overturning circulation in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean in response to the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode. A decrease in net primary productivity (more nutrients unutilized) in the source waters of the AAIW could have contributed as well but cannot fully explain all observed changes.

Long-Term Observations on Aerosol Elemental Carbon and Mass Concentrations in Winter-Time in New Delhi: Implications for Local Source Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aggarwal, S. G.; Singh, K.; Singh, N.; Gupta, P. K.

2009-12-01

Fossil-fuel and bio-fuel burning are the two major sources identified for high carbonaceous aerosol loadings in several mega cities in India. In the last decade, according to a report from the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB, 1999), the vehicular emission (mostly diesel-powered engines) was contributed to ~67% of the total air pollution load in New Delhi. Therefore, a policy decision was taken by the government, and most of the diesel-powered engines were converted to compressed natural gas (CNG) -powered engines by 2003. To better understand the effect of these changes on air quality, we collected high volume aerosol samples (total suspended particles, TSP) mostly for a day basis at our institute building in New Delhi almost everyday during winter season (November to January) from 2002 to 2008. We found very high mean aerosol loading, i.e., 488±47 μg m-3 in 2002 winter, which dropped significantly to 280±73 μg m-3 in 2003 winter. Thereafter, a steadily increased trend of aerosol mass loadings was observed, i.e., 339±112, 339±120, 412±107 and 444±55 μg m-3 in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 winters, respectively. Similar trend was also observed for elemental carbon (EC) concentration in TSP, which was peaked in 2002 (47±11 μg m-3) and minimized in 2003 (32±6 μg m-3), and then gradually increased to 41±8 μg m-3 in 2007 winter. These decline trends of aerosol mass and EC concentrations in 2003 can be explained well, because of the conversion of diesel engine to CNG engines of public transport facilities. However, again increase in aerosol mass and EC concentrations possibly because of a high increase in road traffic in recent years. According to the economic survey of New Delhi 2008-09, the number of vehicles (which includes all types of engines, i.e., petrol, diesel and CNG) has grown from ~3.3 millions in 1997-98 to ~5.6 millions in 2007-08. The influence of engine types and vehicle population on aerosol loading can also be explained well by SO2 and NO2 concentration trend (data obtained from the local agency) for the study period. On the other hand, during winter-time from 2002 to 2008, meteorological data (e.g., mean temperature, humidity, precipitation) did not change significantly. This study suggests that winter aerosol loadings in New Delhi are largely influenced by the local sources (fossil fuel combustion).

Potential impacts on Colorado Rocky Mountain weather due to land use changes on the adjacent Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, T.N.; Pielke, R.A.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Baron, Jill S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

1999-01-01

Evidence from both meteorological stations and vegetational successional studies suggests that summer temperatures are decreasing in the mountain-plain system in northeast Colorado, particularly since the early 1980s. These trends are coincident with large changes in regional land cover. Trends in global, Northern Hemisphere and continental surface temperatures over the same period are insignificant. These observations suggest that changes in the climate of this mountain-plain system may be, in some part, a result of localized forcing mechanisms. In this study the effects of land use change on the northern Colorado plains, where large regions of grasslands have been transformed into both dry and irrigated agricultural lands, on regional weather is examined in an effort to understand this local deviation from larger-scale trends. We find with high-resolution numerical simulations of a 3-day summer period using a regional atmospheric-land surface model that replacing grasslands with irrigated and dry farmland can have impacts on regional weather and therefore climate which are not limited to regions of direct forcing. Higher elevations remote from regions of land use change are affected as well. Specifically, cases with altered landcover had cooler, moister boundary layers, and diminished low-level upslope winds over portions of the plains. At higher elevations, temperatures also were lower as was low-level convergence. Precipitation and cloud cover were substantially affected in mountain regions. We advance the hypothesis that observed land use changes may have already had a role in explaining part of the observed climate record in the northern Colorado mountain-plain system. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.

Trends in mental health inequalities in England during a period of recession, austerity and welfare reform 2004 to 2013.

PubMed

Barr, Ben; Kinderman, Peter; Whitehead, Margaret

2015-12-01

Several indicators of population mental health in the UK have deteriorated since the financial crisis, during a period when a number of welfare reforms and austerity measures have been implemented. We do not know which groups have been most affected by these trends or the extent to which recent economic trends or recent policies have contributed to them. We use data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey to investigate trends in self reported mental health problems by socioeconomic group and employment status in England between 2004 and 2013. We then use panel regression models to investigate the association between local trends in mental health problems and local trends in unemployment and wages to investigate the extent to which these explain increases in mental health problems during this time. We found that the trend in the prevalence of people reporting mental health problems increased significantly more between 2009 and 2013 compared to the previous trends. This increase was greatest amongst people with low levels of education and inequalities widened. The gap in prevalence between low and high educated groups widened by 1.29 percentage points for women (95% CI: 0.50 to 2.08) and 1.36 percentage points for men (95% CI: 0.31 to 2.42) between 2009 and 2013. Trends in unemployment and wages only partly explained these recent increases in mental health problems. The trend in reported mental health problems across England broadly mirrored the pattern of increases in suicides and antidepressant prescribing. Welfare policies and austerity measures implemented since 2010 may have contributed to recent increases in mental health problems and widening inequalities. This has led to rising numbers of people with low levels of education out of work with mental health problems. These trends are likely to increase social exclusion as well as demand for and reliance on social welfare systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cheating. Who Does It Really Hurt?

PubMed

Peterson, Debra A

2015-01-01

It is easy enough to proclaim that cheating is wrong and to explain it as yet another example of trends in this country elevating the big bluff or the apparently sincere apology as means of getting off. The question is what should a professional do when witnessing what appears to be a colleague's unethical behavior? A scenario is analyzed where a dental student observes what appears to be cheating on an examination. Important steps in the process include diagnosing the moral culture of the school, determining who else might have witnessed the event and what they might do about it, and being willing to accept personal responsibility for any action taken.

Variability and trend in ozone over the southern tropics and subtropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toihir, Abdoulwahab Mohamed; Portafaix, Thierry; Sivakumar, Venkataraman; Bencherif, Hassan; Pazmiño, Andréa; Bègue, Nelson

2018-03-01

Long-term variability in ozone trends was assessed over eight Southern Hemisphere tropical and subtropical sites (Natal, Nairobi, Ascension Island, Java, Samoa, Fiji, Reunion and Irene), using total column ozone data (TCO) and vertical ozone profiles (altitude range 15-30 km) recorded during the period January 1998-December 2012. The TCO datasets were constructed by combination of satellite data (OMI and TOMS) and ground-based observations recorded using Dobson and SAOZ spectrometers. Vertical ozone profiles were obtained from balloon-sonde experiments which were operated within the framework of the SHADOZ network. The analysis in this study was performed using the Trend-Run model. This is a multivariate regression model based on the principle of separating the variations of ozone time series into a sum of several forcings (annual and semi-annual oscillations, QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation), ENSO, 11-year solar cycle) that account for most of its variability. The trend value is calculated based on the slope of a normalized linear function which is one of the forcing parameters included in the model. Three regions were defined as follows: equatorial (0-10° S), tropical (10-20° S) and subtropical (20-30° S). Results obtained indicate that ozone variability is dominated by seasonal and quasi-biennial oscillations. The ENSO contribution is observed to be significant in the tropical lower stratosphere and especially over the Pacific sites (Samoa and Java). The annual cycle of ozone is observed to be the most dominant mode of variability for all the sites and presents a meridional signature with a maximum over the subtropics, while semi-annual and quasi-biannual ozone modes are more apparent over the equatorial region, and their magnitude decreases southward. The ozone variation mode linked to the QBO signal is observed between altitudes of 20 and 28 km. Over the equatorial zone there is a strong signal at ˜ 26 km, where 58 % ±2 % of total ozone variability is explained by the effect of QBO. Annual ozone oscillations are more apparent at two different altitude ranges (below 24 km and in the 27-30 km altitude band) over the tropical and subtropical regions, while the semi-annual oscillations are more significant over the 27-30 km altitude range in the tropical and equatorial regions. The estimated trend in TCO is positive and not significant and corresponds to a variation of ˜ 1.34±0.50 % decade-1 (averaged over the three regions). The trend estimated within the equatorial region (0-15° S) is less than 1 % per decade, while it is assessed at more than 1.5 % decade-1 for all the sites located southward of 17° S. With regard to the vertical distribution of trend estimates, a positive trend in ozone concentration is obtained in the 22-30 km altitude range, while a delay in ozone improvement is apparent in the UT-LS (upper troposphere-lower stratosphere) below 22 km. This is especially noticeable at approximately 19 km, where a negative value is observed in the tropical regions.

Variable neutron star free precession in Hercules X-1 from evolution of RXTE X-ray pulse profiles with phase of the 35-d cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Postnov, K.; Shakura, N.; Staubert, R.; Kochetkova, A.; Klochkov, D.; Wilms, J.

2013-10-01

Accretion of matter on to the surface of a freely precessing neutron star (NS) with a complex non-dipole magnetic field can explain the change of X-ray pulse profiles of Her X-1 observed by RXTE with the phase of the 35-d cycle. We demonstrate this using all available measurements of X-ray pulse profiles in the 9-13 keV energy range obtained with the RXTE/Proportional Counter Array (PCA). The measured profiles guided the elaboration of a geometrical model and the definition of locations of emitting poles, arcs and spots on the NS surface which satisfactorily reproduce the observed pulse profiles and their dependence on free precession phase. We have found that the observed trend of the times of the 35-d turn-ons on the O-C diagram, which can be approximated by a collection of consecutive linear segments around the mean value, can be described by our model by assuming a variable free precession period, with a fractional period change of about a few per cent. Under this assumption and using our model, we have found that the times of phase zero of the NS free precession (which we identify with the maximum separation of the brightest spot on the NS surface with the NS spin axis) occur about 1.6 d after the mean turn-on times inside each `stable' epoch, producing a linear trend on the O-C diagram with the same slope as the observed times of turn-ons. We propose that the 2.5 per cent changes in the free precession period that occur on time scales of several to tens of 35-d cycles can be related to wandering of the principal inertia axis of the NS body due to variations in the patterns of accretion on to the NS surface. The closeness of periods of the disc precession and the NS free precession can be explained by the presence of a synchronization mechanism in the system, which modulates the dynamical interaction of the gas streams and the accretion disc with the NS free precession period.

Nomadization in Rajasthan, India: migration, institutions, and economy.

PubMed

Robbins, P

1998-03-01

Amidst a global trend toward settlement, the incidence of pastoral nomadism is increasing in the Marwar region of western Rajasthan, India, with a regional livestock population increasingly on the move, sometimes turning to year-round nomadism in order to meet the demands of seasonal pasturage. The notion that common property grazing resources have disappeared amid unprecedented growth of the regional herd cannot explain the observed trends. Rather, changing institutional and economic patterns are creating new contexts for strategic movement. The transition into migratory strategies has developed from the decline of key village social institutions which manage pasture and forest land, the profits earned from intensification in an increasingly capitalized market, and the benefits of migration in the form of the herd's increased reproductive capacity. Producers in this population increase their access to markets and the reproductive rate of their herd through long, annual migration. Nomadism in this setting is therefore a general adaptation to changes in the socioeconomic conditions of the region, although differential resource endowments account for the range of strategies.

Vertical land motion controls regional sea level rise patterns on the United States east coast since 1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piecuch, C. G.; Huybers, P. J.; Hay, C.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Little, C. M.; Ponte, R. M.; Tingley, M.

2017-12-01

Understanding observed spatial variations in centennial relative sea level trends on the United States east coast has important scientific and societal applications. Past studies based on models and proxies variously suggest roles for crustal displacement, ocean dynamics, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Here we perform joint Bayesian inference on regional relative sea level, vertical land motion, and absolute sea level fields based on tide gauge records and GPS data. Posterior solutions show that regional vertical land motion explains most (80% median estimate) of the spatial variance in the large-scale relative sea level trend field on the east coast over 1900-2016. The posterior estimate for coastal absolute sea level rise is remarkably spatially uniform compared to previous studies, with a spatial average of 1.4-2.3 mm/yr (95% credible interval). Results corroborate glacial isostatic adjustment models and reveal that meaningful long-period, large-scale vertical velocity signals can be extracted from short GPS records.

CO2-vegetation feedbacks and other climate changes implicated in reducing base flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trancoso, Ralph; Larsen, Joshua R.; McVicar, Tim R.; Phinn, Stuart R.; McAlpine, Clive A.

2017-03-01

Changes in the hydrological cycle have a significant impact in water limited environments. Globally, some of these regions are experiencing declining precipitation yet are simultaneously becoming greener, partly due to vegetation feedbacks associated with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Reduced precipitation together with increasing rates of actual evapotranspiration diminishes streamflow, especially base flow, a critical freshwater dry-season resource. Here we assess recent changes in base flow in Australia from 1981-2013 and 1950-2013 and separate the contribution of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and other factors on base flow trends. Our findings reveal that these other factors influencing the base flow trends are best explained by an increase in photosynthetic activity. These results provide the first robust observational evidence that increasing atmospheric CO2 and its associated vegetation feedbacks are reducing base flow in addition to other climatic impacts. These findings have broad implications for water resource management, especially in the world's water limited regions.

The development of synthetic biology: a patent analysis.

PubMed

van Doren, Davy; Koenigstein, Stefan; Reiss, Thomas

2013-12-01

In the past decades, synthetic biology has gained interest regarding research and development efforts within the biotechnology domain. However, it is unclear to what extent synthetic biology has matured already into being commercially exploitable. By means of a patent analysis, this study shows that there is an increasing trend regarding synthetic biology related patent applications. The majority of retrieved patents relates to innovations facilitating the realisation of synthetic biology through improved understanding of biological systems. In addition, there is increased activity concerning the development of synthetic biology based applications. When looking at potential application areas, the majority of synthetic biology patents seems most relevant for the medical, energy and industrial sector. Furthermore, the analysis shows that most activity has been carried out by the USA, with Japan and a number of European countries considerably trailing behind. In addition, both universities and companies are major patent applicant actor types. The results presented here form a starting point for follow-up studies concerning the identification of drivers explaining the observed patent application trends in synthetic biology.

Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet.

PubMed

Wingham, D J; Shepherd, A; Muir, A; Marshall, G J

2006-07-15

The Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise has long been uncertain. While regional variability in ice dynamics has been revealed, a picture of mass changes throughout the continental ice sheet is lacking. Here, we use satellite radar altimetry to measure the elevation change of 72% of the grounded ice sheet during the period 1992-2003. Depending on the density of the snow giving rise to the observed elevation fluctuations, the ice sheet mass trend falls in the range -5-+85Gtyr-1. We find that data from climate model reanalyses are not able to characterise the contemporary snowfall fluctuation with useful accuracy and our best estimate of the overall mass trend-growth of 27+/-29Gtyr-1-is based on an assessment of the expected snowfall variability. Mass gains from accumulating snow, particularly on the Antarctic Peninsula and within East Antarctica, exceed the ice dynamic mass loss from West Antarctica. The result exacerbates the difficulty of explaining twentieth century sea-level rise.

Spatio-temporal variation of anthropogenic marine debris on Chilean beaches.

PubMed

Hidalgo-Ruz, Valeria; Honorato-Zimmer, Daniela; Gatta-Rosemary, Magdalena; Nuñez, Paloma; Hinojosa, Iván A; Thiel, Martin

2018-01-01

We examined the hypothesis that in an emerging economy such as Chile the abundances of Anthropogenic Marine Debris (AMD) on beaches are increasing over time. The citizen science program Científicos de la Basura ("Litter Scientists") conducted three national surveys (2008, 2012 and 2016) to determine AMD composition, abundance, spatial patterns and temporal trends. AMD was found on all beaches along the entire Chilean coast. Highest percentages of AMD in all surveys were plastics and cigarette butts, which can be attributed to local sources (i.e. beach users). The Antofagasta region in northern Chile had the highest abundance of AMD compared with all other zones. Higher abundances of AMD were found at the upper stations from almost all zones. No significant tendency of increasing or decreasing AMD densities was observed during the 8years covered by our study, which suggests that economic development alone cannot explain temporal trends in AMD densities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Archival COS Study of Multi-phase Galactic Outflows and Their Dependence on Host Galaxy Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chisholm, John

2013-10-01

Galactic outflows have become vital for understanding galaxy evolution. Outflows have been used to explain the mass-metallicity relation, the star formation history of the universe, and the shape of the baryonic mass function. However, few studies have focused on the basic question of how outflow velocities depend upon the physical properties of their host galaxies. Here we propose an archival project utilizing 52 COS spectra of local star-forming galaxies spanning four decades of star formation rate, and stellar mass. We will preform a self-consistent analysis of trends between galactic properties {star formation rate, stellar mass, specific star formation rate and star formation rate surface density} and outflow velocities measured from interstellar metal absorption lines {e.g., CII 1335}. We will extend this analysis to different gas phases - cold, warm, and hot - to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the physics of multi-phase outflows. The trends we observe will provide insights into the feedback process and will be crucial new benchmarks for simulations.

The roles of consistency and exclusivity in perceiving body ownership and agency.

PubMed

Ma, Ke; Hommel, Bernhard; Chen, Hong

2018-01-23

Previous rubber/virtual hand illusion studies have established important constraints for the illusion that an artificial effector becomes part of one's own body (perceived ownership), and that its actions are being caused by oneself (perceived agency). We can take these observed constraints to establish two of three Wegner's (Trends Cogn Sci 7:65-69; Wegner, Trends in Cognitive Sciences 7:65-69, 2003) criteria for the perception of personal agency: priority and consistency, but not Wegner's third criterion-exclusivity. In this study we tested with virtual hand illusion, whether exclusivity (participant is certain who was controlling the virtual effector) can also be established. We manipulated two factors: exclusivity and consistency. Our results show that on both ownership and agency judgments, consistency and exclusivity produced main effects, and the two effects interacted in an underadditive fashion. Taken together, these findings provide support for our suggestion to extend Wegner's agency theory to explain perceived body ownership, which in turn provides an integrative framework for interpreting constraints on ownership and agency illusions.

Monitoring Functional Traits of Alpine Vegetation using Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.; Wulf, H.; Schaepman, M. E.; Schmid, B.

2016-12-01

Plant functional traits can be used to study the interactions between plants and ecosystem functioning as well as the response of plants to various environmental pressures. Continuous monitoring of plant functional traits dynamics on a large spatial scale is important to understand the mechanisms of ecosystem function degradation, especially on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In this study, we investigated spatiotemporal trends of functional traits (i.e., chlorophyll content, phenology, leaf area index proxy of leaf size and above ground biomass proxy of leaf mass) in the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on the combined analysis of multi-sensor satellite data and field observations at three spatial scales (ground-truth data at 1 m, Landsat at 30 m, MODIS at 500 m), and analyzed potential factors contribute to their spatiotemporal trends. Chlorophyll content (Chl) and biomass was retrieved based on 94 field plots measurements. LAI was analyzed using MCD15A3H product and estimated values using digital hemispherical photographs in the field. Plant phenology will be processed based on MODIS NDVI time series and hourly Phenocam observations. The preliminary results show that (1) Chl, LAI and biomass show high spatial heterogeneity trends and increase in 2001 - 2015. (2) Elevation played an important role in the spatial pattern of LAI and Chl variation in 15 years. A dividing line of approximately 3800 m exists and shows that below this line, LAI and Chl changes more complicated, showing significantly positive and negative linear trend. While above this altitude, the change rate of two variables keeps relatively stable. Vegetation in low elevation is exposed to high habitat diversity by showing high Chl, LAI and biomass spatial heterogeneity. The vegetation in high habitat diversity may be more sensitive to climatic variables and human activities than higher elevation since warming contribute to the positive trend of traits while human factors like urbanization might be explain negative trend in relative low altitude (below 3800 m). (3) Temperature contribute to the above functional traits variation than precipitation, especially temperature is more correlated to the functional traits of widely distributed vegetation type than narrow-ranging vegetation type.

Predicting the Extent of Summer Sea Ice in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigor, I. G.; Wallace, J. M.

2003-12-01

The summers of 1998 and 2002 had the least sea ice extent (SIE) in the Arctic. These observations seem to agree with the trends noted by Parkinson, et al. (1999, hereafter P99) for the period 1979-1997, but the spatial pattern of these recent decreases in summer SIE were different. The summer trends shown by P99, exhibit large decreases in SIE primarily in the East Siberian Sea (ESS), while the decreases observed during 1998 and 2002 were much larger in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas (BCS). We now show that the trends for the period 1979 - 2002 are much smaller in the ESS than the trends shown by P99, and the largest decreasing trends have shifted from the ESS to the BCS. Rigor, et al. (2002) showed that the changes in SIE that P99 noted were driven by changes in atmospheric circulation related to the phase of the prior winter Arctic Oscillation (AO, Thompson and Wallace, 1998) index. Given that the latest trends in SIE are different than those shown by P99, one could ask whether the affect of the AO on sea ice noted by Rigor, et al. (2002) has also changed, and whether some large scale climate modes other than the AO has influenced the climate of the Arctic Ocean more? To answer these questions, we applied Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis on the September SIE data from microwave satellites, and found that the first two modes SIE were most highly correlated to the prior winter AO, and the AO index of the summer months just prior to each September. These modes explain more than 45% of the variance in SIE, and show that the influence of the winter and summer AO dominates Arctic climate from 1979 - 2002. Using data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, we will show that the changes in sea ice extent are primarily driven by dynamic changes in sea ice thickness and discuss the implications for predicting summer SIE.

Understanding trends in blood pressure and their associations with body mass index in Chinese children, from 1985 to 2010: a cross-sectional observational study.

PubMed

Dong, Bin; Wang, Zhiqiang; Song, Yi; Wang, Hai-Jun; Ma, Jun

2015-09-11

Understanding trends in blood pressure (BP) in childhood is crucial to addressing and reducing the burden of adulthood hypertension and associated mortality in the future. In view of growing obesity in Chinese children, we sought to investigate the trends in BP and the influence of body mass index (BMI) on them. We included 1,010,153 children aged 8-17 years, with completed records from a large national successive cross-sectional survey, the Chinese National Survey on Students' Constitution and Health, between 1985 and 2010. BP was measured according to the recommendation of the National High Blood Pressure Education Program Working Group, and the elevated BP was based on sex-, age- and height-specific 95th centile of the recommendation. The adjusted mean systolic BP in boys and girls decreased by 3.9 and 5.6 mm Hg between 1985 and 2005, and increased by 1.3 and 1.0 mm Hg between 2005 and 2010, respectively. Corresponding adjusted prevalence of elevated systolic BP in boys and girls declined from 5.1% and 5.5% to 3.5% and 2.5% between 1985 and 2005, and increased to 4.9% and 3.5% in 2010, respectively. Adjusted mean BMI of boys and girls in 2010 was 2.0 and 1.2 kg/m(2) higher than those in 1985, respectively. The prevalence of obesity rose from 0% to 3.4% in boys and 0.9% in girls. Further adjusting for BMI did not change these trends in systolic BP. A similar pattern was also observed in diastolic BP. After declining for 20 years, BP levels in Chinese children started to climb upwards. These trends in BP cannot be fully explained by BMI. The investigation of other determinants of BP may provide additional opportunity to curb the current upward BP trend in Chinese children. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The Redistribution of Responsibilities in Five European Educational Systems: From Global Trends to National Arrangements

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Batista, Susana

2014-01-01

This article provides a comparative analysis on the evolution of the distribution of responsibilities--the authority of deciding over a particular domain--at the national, regional, and local levels in the European Union educational systems. After explaining common trends in the institutional arrangements through the role of evaluation, the…

Families at the Century's Turn: The Troubling Economic Trends. Family Review.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindjord, Denise

2000-01-01

Discusses U.S. economic trends for the past century. Notes that distribution of wealth is more concentrated at top than is distribution of income, with income inequality growing worse in the 1990s. Maintains that wealth disparity explains achievement test score gaps between white and minority students. Presents proposals for asset-building,…

International Trends in the Implementation of Assessment for Learning: Implications for Policy and Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Birenbaum, Menucha; DeLuca, Christopher; Earl, Lorna; Heritage, Margaret; Klenowski, Val; Looney, Anne; Smith, Kari; Timperley, Helen; Volante, Louis; Wyatt-Smith, Claire

2015-01-01

This paper discusses the emergence of assessment for learning (AfL) across the globe with particular attention given to Western educational jurisdictions. Authors from Australia, Canada, Ireland, Israel, New Zealand, Norway, and the USA explain the genesis of AfL, its evolution and impact on school systems, and discuss current trends in policy…

New Trends in Chemistry Teaching. Volume V. The Teaching of Basic Sciences: Chemistry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, Paris (France).

This collection of articles, originally published in national and international journals, is fifth in a series devoted to trends in teaching chemistry. The volume is divided into nine sections, each with an introduction explaining why papers have been selected and outlining their particular interest. Section I provides a list of atomic masses,…

Is Anxiety in Young Boys the New Normal?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mogel, Wendy

2016-01-01

As a psychologist of 35 years, Wendy Mogel discusses what she has discovered to be the new trend behind anxiety in young boys. Through hours of probing and pondering, neither hyperparenting nor early trauma (what one might think were logical causes of a young boy's anxiety) is the key to understanding this new trend. She explains that many…

State Profiles: Financing Public Higher Education. 1978 to 1998 Trend Data.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Halstead, Kent

This report presents two large tables showing trends in the financing of public higher education since 1977-78. Introductory information explains how to use the tables, the data-time relationship (whether fiscal year, academic year, or calendar year), and includes a sample chart constructed from one state's data. The raw data used for these…

Chapter 1 in Ohio: Elementary and Secondary Education Act. 24th Annual Evaluation Report, Fiscal 1989.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ohio State Dept. of Education, Columbus. Div. of Federal Assistance.

This report summarizes recent activities in Ohio provided through Chapter 1 of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act. Information presented includes statistics for fiscal 1989, participation trends, instructional impact, expenditure and staffing patterns, parent involvement, and 5-year trends. The first two sections of the report explain the…

Blazar spectral variability as explained by a twisted inhomogeneous jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raiteri, C. M.; Villata, M.; Acosta-Pulido, J. A.; Agudo, I.; Arkharov, A. A.; Bachev, R.; Baida, G. V.; Benítez, E.; Borman, G. A.; Boschin, W.; Bozhilov, V.; Butuzova, M. S.; Calcidese, P.; Carnerero, M. I.; Carosati, D.; Casadio, C.; Castro-Segura, N.; Chen, W.-P.; Damljanovic, G.; D'Ammando, F.; di Paola, A.; Echevarría, J.; Efimova, N. V.; Ehgamberdiev, Sh. A.; Espinosa, C.; Fuentes, A.; Giunta, A.; Gómez, J. L.; Grishina, T. S.; Gurwell, M. A.; Hiriart, D.; Jermak, H.; Jordan, B.; Jorstad, S. G.; Joshi, M.; Kopatskaya, E. N.; Kuratov, K.; Kurtanidze, O. M.; Kurtanidze, S. O.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Larionov, V. M.; Larionova, E. G.; Larionova, L. V.; Lázaro, C.; Lin, C. S.; Malmrose, M. P.; Marscher, A. P.; Matsumoto, K.; McBreen, B.; Michel, R.; Mihov, B.; Minev, M.; Mirzaqulov, D. O.; Mokrushina, A. A.; Molina, S. N.; Moody, J. W.; Morozova, D. A.; Nazarov, S. V.; Nikolashvili, M. G.; Ohlert, J. M.; Okhmat, D. N.; Ovcharov, E.; Pinna, F.; Polakis, T. A.; Protasio, C.; Pursimo, T.; Redondo-Lorenzo, F. J.; Rizzi, N.; Rodriguez-Coira, G.; Sadakane, K.; Sadun, A. C.; Samal, M. R.; Savchenko, S. S.; Semkov, E.; Skiff, B. A.; Slavcheva-Mihova, L.; Smith, P. S.; Steele, I. A.; Strigachev, A.; Tammi, J.; Thum, C.; Tornikoski, M.; Troitskaya, Yu. V.; Troitsky, I. S.; Vasilyev, A. A.; Vince, O.

2017-12-01

Blazars are active galactic nuclei, which are powerful sources of radiation whose central engine is located in the core of the host galaxy. Blazar emission is dominated by non-thermal radiation from a jet that moves relativistically towards us, and therefore undergoes Doppler beaming. This beaming causes flux enhancement and contraction of the variability timescales, so that most blazars appear as luminous sources characterized by noticeable and fast changes in brightness at all frequencies. The mechanism that produces this unpredictable variability is under debate, but proposed mechanisms include injection, acceleration and cooling of particles, with possible intervention of shock waves or turbulence. Changes in the viewing angle of the observed emitting knots or jet regions have also been suggested as an explanation of flaring events and can also explain specific properties of blazar emission, such as intra-day variability, quasi-periodicity and the delay of radio flux variations relative to optical changes. Such a geometric interpretation, however, is not universally accepted because alternative explanations based on changes in physical conditions—such as the size and speed of the emitting zone, the magnetic field, the number of emitting particles and their energy distribution—can explain snapshots of the spectral behaviour of blazars in many cases. Here we report the results of optical-to-radio-wavelength monitoring of the blazar CTA 102 and show that the observed long-term trends of the flux and spectral variability are best explained by an inhomogeneous, curved jet that undergoes changes in orientation over time. We propose that magnetohydrodynamic instabilities or rotation of the twisted jet cause different jet regions to change their orientation and hence their relative Doppler factors. In particular, the extreme optical outburst of 2016–2017 (brightness increase of six magnitudes) occurred when the corresponding emitting region had a small viewing angle. The agreement between observations and theoretical predictions can be seen as further validation of the relativistic beaming theory.

Blazar spectral variability as explained by a twisted inhomogeneous jet.

PubMed

Raiteri, C M; Villata, M; Acosta-Pulido, J A; Agudo, I; Arkharov, A A; Bachev, R; Baida, G V; Benítez, E; Borman, G A; Boschin, W; Bozhilov, V; Butuzova, M S; Calcidese, P; Carnerero, M I; Carosati, D; Casadio, C; Castro-Segura, N; Chen, W-P; Damljanovic, G; D'Ammando, F; Di Paola, A; Echevarría, J; Efimova, N V; Ehgamberdiev, Sh A; Espinosa, C; Fuentes, A; Giunta, A; Gómez, J L; Grishina, T S; Gurwell, M A; Hiriart, D; Jermak, H; Jordan, B; Jorstad, S G; Joshi, M; Kopatskaya, E N; Kuratov, K; Kurtanidze, O M; Kurtanidze, S O; Lähteenmäki, A; Larionov, V M; Larionova, E G; Larionova, L V; Lázaro, C; Lin, C S; Malmrose, M P; Marscher, A P; Matsumoto, K; McBreen, B; Michel, R; Mihov, B; Minev, M; Mirzaqulov, D O; Mokrushina, A A; Molina, S N; Moody, J W; Morozova, D A; Nazarov, S V; Nikolashvili, M G; Ohlert, J M; Okhmat, D N; Ovcharov, E; Pinna, F; Polakis, T A; Protasio, C; Pursimo, T; Redondo-Lorenzo, F J; Rizzi, N; Rodriguez-Coira, G; Sadakane, K; Sadun, A C; Samal, M R; Savchenko, S S; Semkov, E; Skiff, B A; Slavcheva-Mihova, L; Smith, P S; Steele, I A; Strigachev, A; Tammi, J; Thum, C; Tornikoski, M; Troitskaya, Yu V; Troitsky, I S; Vasilyev, A A; Vince, O

2017-12-21

Blazars are active galactic nuclei, which are powerful sources of radiation whose central engine is located in the core of the host galaxy. Blazar emission is dominated by non-thermal radiation from a jet that moves relativistically towards us, and therefore undergoes Doppler beaming. This beaming causes flux enhancement and contraction of the variability timescales, so that most blazars appear as luminous sources characterized by noticeable and fast changes in brightness at all frequencies. The mechanism that produces this unpredictable variability is under debate, but proposed mechanisms include injection, acceleration and cooling of particles, with possible intervention of shock waves or turbulence. Changes in the viewing angle of the observed emitting knots or jet regions have also been suggested as an explanation of flaring events and can also explain specific properties of blazar emission, such as intra-day variability, quasi-periodicity and the delay of radio flux variations relative to optical changes. Such a geometric interpretation, however, is not universally accepted because alternative explanations based on changes in physical conditions-such as the size and speed of the emitting zone, the magnetic field, the number of emitting particles and their energy distribution-can explain snapshots of the spectral behaviour of blazars in many cases. Here we report the results of optical-to-radio-wavelength monitoring of the blazar CTA 102 and show that the observed long-term trends of the flux and spectral variability are best explained by an inhomogeneous, curved jet that undergoes changes in orientation over time. We propose that magnetohydrodynamic instabilities or rotation of the twisted jet cause different jet regions to change their orientation and hence their relative Doppler factors. In particular, the extreme optical outburst of 2016-2017 (brightness increase of six magnitudes) occurred when the corresponding emitting region had a small viewing angle. The agreement between observations and theoretical predictions can be seen as further validation of the relativistic beaming theory.

An 'Observational Large Ensemble' to compare observed and modeled temperature trend uncertainty due to internal variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poppick, A. N.; McKinnon, K. A.; Dunn-Sigouin, E.; Deser, C.

2017-12-01

Initial condition climate model ensembles suggest that regional temperature trends can be highly variable on decadal timescales due to characteristics of internal climate variability. Accounting for trend uncertainty due to internal variability is therefore necessary to contextualize recent observed temperature changes. However, while the variability of trends in a climate model ensemble can be evaluated directly (as the spread across ensemble members), internal variability simulated by a climate model may be inconsistent with observations. Observation-based methods for assessing the role of internal variability on trend uncertainty are therefore required. Here, we use a statistical resampling approach to assess trend uncertainty due to internal variability in historical 50-year (1966-2015) winter near-surface air temperature trends over North America. We compare this estimate of trend uncertainty to simulated trend variability in the NCAR CESM1 Large Ensemble (LENS), finding that uncertainty in wintertime temperature trends over North America due to internal variability is largely overestimated by CESM1, on average by a factor of 32%. Our observation-based resampling approach is combined with the forced signal from LENS to produce an 'Observational Large Ensemble' (OLENS). The members of OLENS indicate a range of spatially coherent fields of temperature trends resulting from different sequences of internal variability consistent with observations. The smaller trend variability in OLENS suggests that uncertainty in the historical climate change signal in observations due to internal variability is less than suggested by LENS.

Studies on uptake of trivalent and hexavalent chromium by maize (Zea mays).

PubMed

Mishra, S; Singh, V; Srivastava, S; Srivastava, R; Srivastava, M M; Dass, S; Satsangi, G P; Prakash, S

1995-05-01

Pot culture experiments were carried out to study the uptake and translocation of chromium from irrigation water when supplied in its trivalent and hexavalent states to maize plants grown in soil and sand culture. The uptake of chromium was observed to increase with increase in the concentration for both oxidation states of chromium. For the root, the observed order of uptake was CrIII sand > CrVI sand > CrIII soil > CrVI soil, whereas in the lower shoot, upper shoot and fruit the order was CrVI sand > CrVI soil > CrIII sand > CrIII soil. Significantly high uptake of chromium by roots in the sand culture (CrIII treatment) is attributed to the effect of root exudates and degradation products on the mobilization of CrIII. In aerial parts of the plants a higher uptake was observed when the initial supply was CrVI. The trends observed are explained on the basis of the redox behaviour of chromium.

Recent trends in Inner Asian forest dynamics to temperature and precipitation indicate high sensitivity to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poulter, B.; Pederson, N.; Liu, H.; Zhu, Z.; D'Arrigo, R.; Ciais, P.; Davi, N.; Frank, D. C.; Leland, C.; Myneni, R.; Piao, S.; Wang, T.

2012-12-01

Semi-arid ecosystems play an important role in regulating global climate and their response to climate change will depend on interactions between temperature, precipitation, and CO2. However, in cool-arid environments, precipitation is not the only limitation to forest productivity. For example, interactions between changes in precipitation and air temperature may enhance soil moisture stress while simultaneously extending growing season length, with unclear consequences for net carbon uptake. This presentation evaluates recent trends in productivity and seasonality of forests located in Inner Asia (Mongolia and Northern China) using satellite remote sensing, dendrochronology, and dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations to quantify the sensitivity of forest dynamics to decadal climate variability and trends. Long-term trends from satellite observations of FPAR between 1982-2010 show a greening of 21% of the region in spring (March, April May), but with 10% of the area 'browning' during summertime (June, July, August), the results of which are corroborated by trends in NPP simulated by the LPJ DGVM. Spring greening trends in FPAR are mainly explained by long-term trends in precipitation whereas summer browning trends are correlated with decreasing precipitation. Tree ring data from 25 sites confirm annual growth increments are mainly limited by summer precipitation (June, July, August) in Mongolia, and spring precipitation in northern China (March, April, May), with relatively weak prior-year lag effects. An ensemble of climate projections from the IPCC CMIP3 models indicates that warming temperatures (spring, summer) are expected to be associated with higher summer precipitation, which combined with CO2 causes large increases in NPP and eventual increase in forest cover in the Mongolian steppe. In the absence of a strong direct CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth (e.g., due to nutrient limitation), water stress or decreased carbon gain from higher autotrophic respiration results in decreased productivity and loss of forest cover.

Recent changes in ecologically-relevant streamflows in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ficklin, D. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Knouft, J.; Robeson, S. M.

2017-12-01

The streamflow regime is a primary regulator of the composition and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Growth, behavior, and/or reproduction of most freshwater organisms are influenced in some way by the amount of water, including high and low flows, and seasonal fluctuations in water availability in a particular habitat. This work examines trends in ecologically-relevant measures of streamflows from 1980-2015 for over 3,000 streamflow gauges located throughout Canada and United States. Specifically, we examine trends in water year mean flow and variability, as well as trends in high (95th and 99th percentile), low (1st and 5th percentile), and 7- and 3-day maximum and minimum streamflows. The results indicate a clear regional delineation of significant increases of ecologically-relevant streamflows in the northern Central Plains/south-central Canada, upper Midwest (except Michigan and Wisconsin) and northeastern United States/southeastern Canada, while significant decreases are found throughout the southeastern and southwestern United States. The regional agreement between streamflow trends in regulated and unregulated watersheds indicate a widespread climatic influence that is not masked by human alteration of streamflows. We explore the degree to which climate factors explain both interannual variability and observed trends in streamflow to better elucidate the role of top-down climate drivers versus bottom-up land surface drivers on recent trends in ecologically-relevant streamflow. We also explore how these changes in streamflow are affecting water quality such as water temperature and sediment concentration. This type of analysis will aid in highlighting streamflow regions in the United States that are currently sensitive to changes in climate, but may also aid in understanding which regions may be sensitive to future climatic changes.

Prenatal care in Oregon and Washington: policy and utilization for vulnerable women.

PubMed

Docherty, Angie; Johnston, Alison L

2015-01-01

In the prenatal period, women can have sustained contact with nurses and other clinicians, forming relationships that are likely to be health enhancing for both the woman and her unborn child. Yet, first trimester care use in Oregon dropped noticeably over the past decade. In comparison with Washington state, Oregon has not shown substantial recovery. The aim of this study was to explore potential reasons for the declining prenatal trend in Oregon. We collated county-level birth data from all Oregon and Washington counties from 2000 to 2010. A descriptive, observational, time-series regression analysis for both states assessed the influence of maternal determinants known to impact first trimester care utilization. In Oregon, two factors were significantly associated with declining first trimester care: Medicaid funding (p<.01) and maternal Hispanic ethnicity (p=.02). In Washington, there was no significant association between any assessed determinant and first trimester care. In Oregon, over the period of our study, women dependent on Medicaid and women of Hispanic origin were less likely to utilize first trimester care. A similar trend for these variables was not observed in Washington. At the time of our study, both states had different policy approaches, which may explain some of the observable patterns. Amid current healthcare reforms and rising immigration, our findings suggest the need for strong advocacy for those less able to access or utilize care.

Religiosity as a protective factor against suicidal behaviour.

PubMed

Burshtein, S; Dohrenwend, B P; Levav, I; Werbeloff, N; Davidson, M; Weiser, M

2016-06-01

Data suggest that adherence to religious beliefs is associated with lower rates of suicide. A number of mediating factors have been hypothesized to explain this association, including enhanced social support, less substance abuse, and lower rates of psychopathology. We utilized data from a two-phase population-based, epidemiological study of mental disorders among young Jewish Israel born in a 10-year birth-cohort conducted in the 1980s. This study included data on religiosity and suicidal behaviour. Twenty-five years thereafter, mortality data were obtained from a national vital statistics registry. Rates of suicidal ideation were similar among secular, partially observant, and religious subjects (9.4%, 6.7%, and 6.2%, respectively; adjusted OR for linear trend: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.58-1.09). Rates of suicide attempts were significantly lower among religious subjects (2.4%, 2.5%, and 0.4% for secular, partially observant, and religious, respectively; adjusted OR for linear trend: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.43-0.88). Of the 4914 subjects, eight died by suicide: Seven of them were secular and one was partially observant (χ(2) = 2.52, P = 0.09). There were no differences in social functioning or rates of psychopathology among the study groups. Religiosity has a protective effect against suicide attempts, which is independent of social functioning, psychopathology, and substance use. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modelling seasonal variations in presentations at a paediatric emergency department.

PubMed

Takase, Miyuki; Carlin, John

2012-09-01

Overcrowding is a phenomenon commonly observed at emergency departments (EDs) in many hospitals, and negatively impacts patients, healthcare professionals and organisations. Health care organisations are expected to act proactively to cope with a high patient volume by understanding and predicting the patterns of ED presentations. The aim of this study was, therefore, to identify the patterns of patient flow at a paediatric ED in order to assist the management of EDs. Data for ED presentations were collected from the Royal Children's Hospital in Melbourne, Australia, with the time-frame of July 2003 to June 2008. A linear regression analysis with trigonometric functions was used to identify the pattern of patient flow at the ED. The results showed that a logarithm of the daily average ED presentations was increasing exponentially (as explained by 0.004t + 0.00005t2 with t representing time, p<0.001). The model also indicated that there was a yearly oscillation in the frequency of ED presentations, in which lower frequencies were observed in summer and higher frequencies during winter (as explained by -0.046 sin(2(pi)t/12)-0.083 cos(2(pi)t/12), p<0.001). In addition, the variation of the oscillations was increasing over time (as explained by -0.002t*sin(2(pi)t/12)-0.001t*cos(2(pi)t/12), p<0.05). The identified regression model explained a total of 96% of the variance in the pattern of ED presentations. This model can be used to understand the trend of the current patient flow as well as to predict the future flow at the ED. Such an understanding will assist health care managers to prepare resources and environment more effectively to cope with overcrowding.

Implications of Galaxy Buildup for Putative IMF Variations in Massive Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blancato, Kirsten; Genel, Shy; Bryan, Greg

2017-08-01

Recent observational evidence for initial mass function (IMF) variations in massive quiescent galaxies at z = 0 challenges the long-established paradigm of a universal IMF. While a few theoretical models relate the IMF to birth cloud conditions, the physical driver underlying these putative IMF variations is still largely unclear. Here we use post-processing analysis of the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamical simulation to investigate possible physical origins of IMF variability with galactic properties. We do so by tagging stellar particles in the simulation (each representing a stellar population of ≈ {10}6 {M}⊙ ) with individual IMFs that depend on various physical conditions, such as velocity dispersion, metallicity, or star formation rate, at the time and place in which the stars are formed. We then follow the assembly of these populations throughout cosmic time and reconstruct the overall IMF of each z = 0 galaxy from the many distinct IMFs it is composed of. Our main result is that applying the observed relations between IMF and galactic properties to the conditions at the star formation sites does not result in strong enough IMF variations between z = 0 galaxies. Steeper physical IMF relations are required for reproducing the observed IMF trends, and some stellar populations must form with more extreme IMFs than those observed. The origin of this result is the hierarchical nature of massive galaxy assembly, and it has implications for the reliability of the strong observed trends, for the ability of cosmological simulations to capture certain physical conditions in galaxies, and for theories of star formation aiming to explain the physical origin of a variable IMF.

Satellite Observed Widespread Decline in Mongolian Grasslands Largely Due to Overgrazing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hilker, Thomas; Natsagdorj, Enkhjargal; Waring, Richard H.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie

2014-01-01

The Mongolian Steppe is one of the largest remaining grassland ecosystems. Recent studies have reported widespread decline of vegetation across the steppe and about 70 percent of this ecosystem is now considered degraded. Among the scientific community there has been an active debate about whether the observed degradation is related to climate, or overgrazing, or both. Here, we employ a new atmospheric correction and cloud screening algorithm (MAIAC) to investigate trends in satellite observed vegetation phenology. We relate these trends to changes in climate and domestic animal populations. A series of harmonic functions is fitted to MODIS observed phenological curves to quantify seasonal and inter-annual changes in vegetation. Our results show a widespread decline (of about 12 percent on average) in MODIS observed NDVI across the country but particularly in the transition zone between grassland and the Gobi desert, where recent decline was as much as 40 percent below the 2002 mean NDVI. While we found considerable regional differences in the causes of landscape degradation, about 80 percent of the decline in NDVI could be attributed to increase in livestock. Changes in precipitation were able to explain about 30 percent of degradation across the country as a whole but up to 50 percent in areas with denser vegetation cover (p0.05). Temperature changes, while significant, played only a minor role (r20.10, p0.05). Our results suggest that the cumulative effect of overgrazing is a primary contributor to the degradation of the Mongolian steppe and is at least partially responsible for desertification reported in previous studies.

Observed Changes at the Surface of the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortmeyer, M.; Rigor, I.

2004-12-01

The Arctic has long been considered a harbinger of global climate change since simulations with global climate models predict that if the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere doubles, the Arctic would warm by more than 5°C, compared to a warming of 2°C for subpolar regions (Manabe et al., 1991). And indeed, studies of the observational records show polar amplification of the warming trends (e.g. Serreze and Francis, 2004). These temperature trends are accompanied by myriad concurrent changes in Arctic climate. One of the first indicators of Arctic climate change was found by Walsh et al. (1996) using sea level pressure (SLP) data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP, http://iabp.apl.washington.edu). In this study, they showed that SLP over the Arctic Ocean decreased by over 4 hPa from 1979 - 1994. The decreases in SLP (winds) over the Arctic Ocean, forced changes in the circulation of sea ice and the surface ocean currents such that the Beaufort Gyre is reduced in size and speed (e.g. Rigor et al., 2002). Data from the IABP has also been assimilated into the global surface air temperature (SAT) climatologies (e.g. Jones et al. 1999), and the IABP SAT analysis shows that the temperature trends noted over land extend out over the Arctic Ocean. Specifically, Rigor et al. (2000) found warming trends in SAT over the Arctic Ocean during win¬ter and spring, with values as high as 2°C/decade in the eastern Arctic during spring. It should be noted that many of the changes in Arctic climate were first observed or explained using data from the IABP. The observations from IABP have been one of the cornerstones for environmental forecasting and studies of climate and climate change. These changes have a profound impact on wildlife and people. Many species and cultures depend on the sea ice for habitat and subsistence. Thus, monitoring the Arctic Ocean is crucial not only for our ability to detect climate change, but also to improve our understanding of the Arctic and global climate system, and for forecasting weather and sea ice conditions. The IABP provides the longest continuing record of observations for the Arctic Ocean.

Florida's Public Education Spending. School Choice Issues in the State

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aud, Susan

2006-01-01

This study analyzes and explains Florida's education finance system. It explains the sources of revenue and the expenditure of funds, reporting figures for each of the state's 67 districts. It also analyzes the trend in current expenditures --that is, the day-to-day operating costs of schools--to address the question of whether they have been…

Explaining the Rise in Educational Gradients in Mortality. NBER Working Paper No. 15678

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cutler, David M.; Lange, Fabian; Meara, Ellen; Richards, Seth; Ruhm, Christopher J.

2010-01-01

The long-standing inverse relationship between education and mortality strengthened substantially later in the 20th century. This paper examines the reasons for this increase. We show that behavioral risk factors are not of primary importance. Smoking has declined more for the better educated, but not enough to explain the trend. Obesity has risen…

The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

2017-05-01

Identifying the drivers of global crop price fluctuations is essential for estimating the risks of unexpected weather-induced production shortfalls and for designing optimal response measures. Here we show that with a consistent representation of storage dynamics, a simple supply-demand model can explain most of the observed variations in wheat prices over the last 40 yr solely based on time series of annual production and long term demand trends. Even the most recent price peaks in 2007/08 and 2010/11 can be explained by additionally accounting for documented changes in countries’ trade policies and storage strategies, without the need for external drivers such as oil prices or speculation across different commodity or stock markets. This underlines the critical sensitivity of global prices to fluctuations in production. The consistent inclusion of storage into a dynamic supply-demand model closes an important gap when it comes to exploring potential responses to future crop yield variability under climate and land-use change.

Episodic accretion in binary protostars emerging from self-gravitating solar mass cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riaz, R.; Vanaverbeke, S.; Schleicher, D. R. G.

2018-06-01

Observations show a large spread in the luminosities of young protostars, which are frequently explained in the context of episodic accretion. We tested this scenario with numerical simulations that follow the collapse of a solar mass molecular cloud using the GRADSPH code, thereby varying the strength of the initial perturbations and temperature of the cores. A specific emphasis of this paper is to investigate the role of binaries and multiple systems in the context of episodic accretion and to compare their evolution to the evolution in isolated fragments. Our models form a variety of low-mass protostellar objects including single, binary, and triple systems in which binaries are more active in exhibiting episodic accretion than isolated protostars. We also find a general decreasing trend in the average mass accretion rate over time, suggesting that the majority of the protostellar mass is accreted within the first 105 years. This result can potentially help to explain the surprisingly low average luminosities in the majority of the protostellar population.

Rapid increases in tropospheric ozone production and export from China: A view from AURA and TM5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verstraeten, W. W.; Neu, J. L.; Williams, J. E.; Bowman, K. W.; Worden, J. R.; Boersma, K. F.

2015-12-01

Eastern Asia has the fastest growing anthropogenic emissions in the world, possibly affecting both the pollution in the local troposphere as well as in the trans-Pacific region. Local measurements over Asia show that tropospheric ozone (O3) has increased by 1 to 3% per year since the start of the millennium. This increase is often invoked to explain positive tropospheric O3 trends observed in western US, but to date there is no unambiguous evidence showing that enhanced Asian pollution is responsible for these trends. In this research we use observations of tropospheric O3 from TES (Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer, onboard AURA), tropospheric NO2 measurements from OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument, onboard AURA) and lower stratospheric observations of O3 from MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder, onboard AURA) in combination with the TM5 CTM. Satellite-based studies focusing on tropospheric O3 and NO2 have the potential to close the gap left by previous studies on air quality since spaceborne data provide large-scale observational evidence that both O3 precursor concentrations and tropospheric O3 levels are rapidly changing over source receptor areas. We show the increased ability of TM5 to reproduce the 2005-2010 observed rapid rise in free tropospheric O3 of 7% over China from TES, once OMI NO2 measurements were implemented in TM5 to update NOX emissions. MLS observations on lower stratospheric O3 have the potential to improve the stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) estimate in TM5 which is mainly driven by ECMWF meteorological fields. Constraining the TM5 modelled trend of the STE contribution to the 3-9 km partial O3 column using MLS observations of stratospheric O3 lead to a better explanation of the sources of the free tropospheric O3 trends over China. Based on the OMI inferred TM5 updates in NOX emissions, the impact of Asian O3 and its precursors on the free troposphere (3-9 km) over the western US could be quantified. Large import from China offsets the local efforts to improve air quality in the 3-9 km partial column over the western US with more than 40%. The issue of export and long-range transport of pollution from other countries indicates that global efforts may be required to address both the global as well as the regional air quality and climate change.

Climate-driven seasonal geocenter motion during the GRACE period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongyue; Sun, Yu

2018-03-01

Annual cycles in the geocenter motion time series are primarily driven by mass changes in the Earth's hydrologic system, which includes land hydrology, atmosphere, and oceans. Seasonal variations of the geocenter motion have been reliably determined according to Sun et al. (J Geophys Res Solid Earth 121(11):8352-8370, 2016) by combining the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data with an ocean model output. In this study, we reconstructed the observed seasonal geocenter motion with geophysical model predictions of mass variations in the polar ice sheets, continental glaciers, terrestrial water storage (TWS), and atmosphere and dynamic ocean (AO). The reconstructed geocenter motion time series is shown to be in close agreement with the solution based on GRACE data supporting with an ocean bottom pressure model. Over 85% of the observed geocenter motion time series, variance can be explained by the reconstructed solution, which allows a further investigation of the driving mechanisms. We then demonstrated that AO component accounts for 54, 62, and 25% of the observed geocenter motion variances in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively. The TWS component alone explains 42, 32, and 39% of the observed variances. The net mass changes over oceans together with self-attraction and loading effects also contribute significantly (about 30%) to the seasonal geocenter motion in the X and Z directions. Other contributing sources, on the other hand, have marginal (less than 10%) impact on the seasonal variations but introduce a linear trend in the time series.

Flood-rich and flood-poor periods in Spain in 1942-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

2016-04-01

Several studies to detect trends in flood series at either national or trans-national scales have been conducted. Mediero et al. (2015) studied flood trends by using the longest streamflow records available in Europe. They found a decreasing trend in the Atlantic, Continental and Scandinavian regions. More specifically, Mediero et al. (2014) found a general decreasing trend in flood series in Spain in the period 1959-2009. Trends in flood series are usually detected by the Mann-Kendall test applied to a given period. However, the result of the Mann-Kendall test can change in terms of the starting and ending year of the series. Flood oscillations can occur and flood-rich and flood-poor periods could condition the results, especially when they are located at the beginning or end of the series. A methodology to identify statistically significant flood-rich and flood-poor periods is developed, based on the comparison between the expected sampling variability of floods when stationarity is assumed and the observed variability of floods in a given series. The methodology is applied to the longest series of annual maximum floods, peaks over threshold and counts of annual occurrences in peaks over threshold series observed in Spain in the period 1942-2009. A flood-rich period in 1950-1970 and a flood-poor period in 1970-1990 are identified in most of the selected sites. The generalised decreasing trend in flood series found by Mediero et al. (2014) could be explained by a flood-rich period placed at the beginning of the series and a flood-poor period located at the end of the series. References: Mediero, L., Kjeldsen, T.R., Macdonald, N., Kohnova, S., Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Wilson, D., Alburquerque, T., Blöschl, G., Bogdanowicz, E., Castellarin, A., Hall, J., Kobold, M., Kriauciuniene, J., Lang, M., Madsen, H., Onuşluel Gül, G., Perdigão, R.A.P., Roald, L.A., Salinas, J.L., Toumazis, A.D., Veijalainen, N., Óðinn Þórarinsson. Identification of coherent flood regions across Europe using the longest streamflow records, Journal of Hydrology, 528, 341-360, 2015. Mediero, L., Santillán, D., Garrote, L., Granados, A. Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 1072-1088, 2014.

Estimates of Ice Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry: Past and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the 20% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to 1.6 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. A principal purpose of obtaining ice sheet elevation changes from satellite altimetry has been estimation of the current ice sheet mass balance. Limited information on ice sheet elevation change and their implications about mass balance have been reported by several investigators from radar altimetry (Seasat, Geosat, ERS-1&2). Analysis of ERS-1&2 data over Greenland for 7 years from 1992 to 1999 shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. Observed seasonal and interannual variations in ice surface elevation are larger than previously expected because of seasonal and interannUal variations in precipitation, melting, and firn compaction. In the accumulation zone, the variations in firn compaction are modeled as a function of temperature leaving variations in precipitation and the mass balance trend. Significant interannual variations in elevation in some locations, in particular the difference in trends from 1992 to 1995 compared to 1995 to 1999, can be explained by changes in precipitation over Greenland. Over the 7 years, trends in elevation are mostly positive at higher elevations and negative at lower elevations. In addition, trends for the winter seasons (from a trend analysis through the average winter elevations) are more positive than the corresponding trends for the summer. At lower elevations, the 7-year trends in some locations are strongly negative for summer and near zero or slightly positive for winter. These observations also demonstrate the potential for relating the variability in mass balance to changes in precipitation, temperature, and melting. Beginning in January 2002, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter mission will provide significantly better elevation accuracy and spatial coverage to 86E latitude and to the margins of the ice sheets.

Effects of Darwinian Selection and Mutability on Rate of Broadly Neutralizing Antibody Evolution during HIV-1 Infection

PubMed Central

Sheng, Zizhang; Schramm, Chaim A.; Connors, Mark; Morris, Lynn; Mascola, John R.; Kwong, Peter D.; Shapiro, Lawrence

2016-01-01

Accumulation of somatic mutations in antibody variable regions is critical for antibody affinity maturation, with HIV-1 broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) generally requiring years to develop. We recently found that the rate at which mutations accumulate decreases over time, but the mechanism governing this slowing is unclear. In this study, we investigated whether natural selection and/or mutability of the antibody variable region contributed significantly to observed decrease in rate. We used longitudinally sampled sequences of immunoglobulin transcripts of single lineages from each of 3 donors, as determined by next generation sequencing. We estimated the evolutionary rates of the complementarity determining regions (CDRs), which are most significant for functional selection, and found they evolved about 1.5- to 2- fold faster than the framework regions. We also analyzed the presence of AID hotspots and coldspots at different points in lineage development and observed an average decrease in mutability of less than 10 percent over time. Altogether, the correlation between Darwinian selection strength and evolutionary rate trended toward significance, especially for CDRs, but cannot fully explain the observed changes in evolutionary rate. The mutability modulated by AID hotspots and coldspots changes correlated only weakly with evolutionary rates. The combined effects of Darwinian selection and mutability contribute substantially to, but do not fully explain, evolutionary rate change for HIV-1-targeting bnAb lineages. PMID:27191167

How Changes in Families and Schools Are Related to Trends in Black-White Test Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berends, Mark; Lucas, Samuel R.; Penaloza, Roberto V.

2008-01-01

Through several decades of research, a great deal has been written about trends in black-white test scores and the factors that may explain the gaps in different subject areas. Only a few studies have examined the changing relationships between gaps in students' test scores and family and school measures in nationally representative data over…

Diagnostic Substitution for Intellectual Disability: A Flawed Explanation for the Rise in Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nevison, Cynthia D.; Blaxill, Mark

2017-01-01

Time trends in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and intellectual disability (ID) prevalence from the United States Individuals with Disabilities Education Act data were computed from 2000 to 2011 for each state and each age from 6 to 17. These trends did not support the hypothesis that diagnostic substitution for ID can explain the ASD rise over…

Trends in Ethnic Inequality in the Attainment of Vocational Degrees: A Cohort Study in Germany

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schuller, Karin

2018-01-01

The present article analyzes the development of the ethnic gap--with respect to the attainment of vocational degrees--over the immigration cohorts 1960-2001 by examining how social integration indicators and general secondary school education may help to explain the trend. It was found that the gap between natives and migrants increased. Above…

Phase Transformation Evolution in NiTi Shape Memory Alloy under Cyclic Nanoindentation Loadings at Dissimilar Rates

PubMed Central

Amini, Abbas; Cheng, Chun; Kan, Qianhua; Naebe, Minoo; Song, Haisheng

2013-01-01

Hysteresis energy decreased significantly as nanocrystalline NiTi shape memory alloy was under triangular cyclic nanoindentation loadings at high rate. Jagged curves evidenced discrete stress relaxations. With a large recovery state of maximum deformation in each cycle, this behavior concluded in several nucleation sites of phase transformation in stressed bulk. Additionally, the higher initial propagation velocity of interface and thermal activation volume, and higher levels of phase transition stress in subsequent cycles explained the monotonic decreasing trend of dissipated energy. In contrast, the dissipated energy showed an opposite increasing trend during triangular cyclic loadings at a low rate and 60 sec holding time after each unloading stage. Due to the isothermal loading rate and the holding time, a major part of the released latent heat was transferred during the cyclic loading resulting in an unchanged phase transition stress. This fact with the reorientation phenomenon explained the monotonic increasing trend of hysteresis energy. PMID:24336228

Flourishing ocean drives the end-Permian marine mass extinction

PubMed Central

Schobben, Martin; Stebbins, Alan; Ghaderi, Abbas; Strauss, Harald; Korn, Dieter; Korte, Christoph

2015-01-01

The end-Permian mass extinction, the most severe biotic crisis in the Phanerozoic, was accompanied by climate change and expansion of oceanic anoxic zones. The partitioning of sulfur among different exogenic reservoirs by biological and physical processes was of importance for this biodiversity crisis, but the exact role of bioessential sulfur in the mass extinction is still unclear. Here we show that globally increased production of organic matter affected the seawater sulfate sulfur and oxygen isotope signature that has been recorded in carbonate rock spanning the Permian−Triassic boundary. A bifurcating temporal trend is observed for the strata spanning the marine mass extinction with carbonate-associated sulfate sulfur and oxygen isotope excursions toward decreased and increased values, respectively. By coupling these results to a box model, we show that increased marine productivity and successive enhanced microbial sulfate reduction is the most likely scenario to explain these temporal trends. The new data demonstrate that worldwide expansion of euxinic and anoxic zones are symptoms of increased biological carbon recycling in the marine realm initiated by global warming. The spatial distribution of sulfidic water column conditions in shallow seafloor environments is dictated by the severity and geographic patterns of nutrient fluxes and serves as an adequate model to explain the scale of the marine biodiversity crisis. Our results provide evidence that the major biodiversity crises in Earth’s history do not necessarily implicate an ocean stripped of (most) life but rather the demise of certain eukaryotic organisms, leading to a decline in species richness. PMID:26240323

Trends in Cardiovascular Risk Factor Levels in the Minnesota Heart Survey (1980–2002) as Compared With the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1976–2002): A Partial Explanation for Minnesota's Low Cardiovascular Disease Mortality?

PubMed Central

Wang, Huifen; Steffen, Lyn M.; Jacobs, David R.; Zhou, Xia; Blackburn, Henry; Berger, Alan K.; Filion, Kristian B.; Luepker, Russell V.

2011-01-01

The authors compared trends in and levels of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors between the Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota, metropolitan area (Twin Cities) and the entire US population to help explain the ongoing decline in US CHD mortality rates. The study populations for risk factors were adults aged 25–74 years enrolled in 2 population-based surveillance studies: the Minnesota Heart Survey (MHS) in 1980–1982, 1985–1987, 1990–1992, 1995–1997, and 2000–2002 and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) in 1976–1980, 1988–1994, 1999–2000, and 2001–2002. The authors found a continuous decline in CHD mortality rates in the Twin Cities and nationally between 1980 and 2000. Similar decreasing rates of change in risk factors across survey years, parallel to the CHD mortality rate decline, were observed in MHS and in NHANES. Adults in MHS had generally lower levels of CHD risk factors than NHANES adults, consistent with the CHD mortality rate difference. Approximately 47% of women and 44% of men in MHS had no elevated CHD risk factors, including smoking, hypertension, high cholesterol, and obesity, versus 36% of women and 34% of men in NHANES. The better CHD risk factor profile in the Twin Cities may partly explain the lower CHD death rate there. PMID:21273396

Contribution of Changing Sources and Sinks to the Growth Rate of Atmospheric Methane Concentrations for the Last Two Decades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matthews, Elaine; Walter, B.; Bogner, J.; Sarma, D.; Portmey, G.; Travis, Larry (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

In situ measurements of atmospheric methane concentrations begun in the early 1980s show decadal trends, as well as large interannual variations, in growth rate. Recent research indicates that while wetlands can explain several of the large growth anomalies for individual years, the decadal trend may be the combined effect of increasing sinks, due to increases in tropospheric OH, and stabilizing sources. We discuss new 20-year histories of annual, global source strengths for all major methane sources, i.e., natural wetlands, rice cultivation, ruminant animals, landfills, fossil fuels, and biomass burning. We also present estimates of the temporal pattern of the sink required to reconcile these sources and atmospheric concentrations over this time period. Analysis of the individual emission sources, together with model-derived estimates of the OH sink strength, indicates that the growth rate of atmospheric methane observed over the last 20 years can only be explained by a combination of changes in source emissions and an increasing tropospheric sink. Direct validation of the global sources and the terrestrial sink is not straightforward, in part because some sources/sinks are relatively small and diffuse (e.g., landfills and soil consumption), as well as because the atmospheric record integrates multiple and substantial sources and tropospheric sinks in regions such as the tropics. We discuss ways to develop and test criteria for rejecting and/or accepting a suite of scenarios for the methane budget.

Trends in acceptance of euthanasia among the general public in 12 European countries (1981-1999).

PubMed

Cohen, Joachim; Marcoux, Isabelle; Bilsen, Johan; Deboosere, Patrick; van der Wal, Gerrit; Deliens, Luc

2006-12-01

We wanted to examine how the acceptance of euthanasia among the general public in Western Europe has changed in the last decades, and we wanted to look for possible explanations. We analysed data from the European Values Surveys, held in 1981, 1990, and 1999-2000 in 12 West European countries. In each country, representative samples of the general public were interviewed using the same structured questionnaire in all countries. Euthanasia was explained in the questionnaires as 'terminating the life of the incurably sick'. A total of 46 199 respondents participated in the surveys. A significant increase in acceptance of euthanasia could be observed in all countries except (West) Germany. While the average increase in euthanasia acceptance was 22%, the increase was particularly obvious in Belgium, Italy, Spain, and Sweden. Although changes in several characteristics of respondents, such as decrease in religious beliefs, rising belief in the right to self-determination, and (to a lesser extent) rise in levels of education, were associated with growing acceptance of euthanasia, they could only partly explain the increase of euthanasia acceptance over the years. An increase of euthanasia acceptance among the general public took place over the last two decades in almost all West European countries, possibly indicating a growing support for personal autonomy regarding medical end-of-life decisions. If this trend continues, it is likely to increase the public and political debate about the (legal) regulation of euthanasia under certain conditions of careful medical practice in several West European countries.

Flourishing ocean drives the end-Permian marine mass extinction.

PubMed

Schobben, Martin; Stebbins, Alan; Ghaderi, Abbas; Strauss, Harald; Korn, Dieter; Korte, Christoph

2015-08-18

The end-Permian mass extinction, the most severe biotic crisis in the Phanerozoic, was accompanied by climate change and expansion of oceanic anoxic zones. The partitioning of sulfur among different exogenic reservoirs by biological and physical processes was of importance for this biodiversity crisis, but the exact role of bioessential sulfur in the mass extinction is still unclear. Here we show that globally increased production of organic matter affected the seawater sulfate sulfur and oxygen isotope signature that has been recorded in carbonate rock spanning the Permian-Triassic boundary. A bifurcating temporal trend is observed for the strata spanning the marine mass extinction with carbonate-associated sulfate sulfur and oxygen isotope excursions toward decreased and increased values, respectively. By coupling these results to a box model, we show that increased marine productivity and successive enhanced microbial sulfate reduction is the most likely scenario to explain these temporal trends. The new data demonstrate that worldwide expansion of euxinic and anoxic zones are symptoms of increased biological carbon recycling in the marine realm initiated by global warming. The spatial distribution of sulfidic water column conditions in shallow seafloor environments is dictated by the severity and geographic patterns of nutrient fluxes and serves as an adequate model to explain the scale of the marine biodiversity crisis. Our results provide evidence that the major biodiversity crises in Earth's history do not necessarily implicate an ocean stripped of (most) life but rather the demise of certain eukaryotic organisms, leading to a decline in species richness.

Climate impact on suicide rates in Finland from 1971 to 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruuhela, Reija; Hiltunen, Laura; Venäläinen, Ari; Pirinen, Pentti; Partonen, Timo

2009-03-01

Seasonal patterns of death from suicide are well-documented and have been attributed to climatic factors such as solar radiation and ambient temperature. However, studies on the impact of weather and climate on suicide are not consistent, and conflicting data have been reported. In this study, we performed a correlation analysis between nationwide suicide rates and weather variables in Finland during the period 1971-2003. The weather parameters studied were global solar radiation, temperature and precipitation, and a range of time spans from 1 month to 1 year were used in order to elucidate the dose-response relationship, if any, between weather variables and suicide. Single and multiple linear regression models show weak associations using 1-month and 3-month time spans, but robust associations using a 12-month time span. Cumulative global solar radiation had the best explanatory power, while average temperature and cumulative precipitation had only a minor impact on suicide rates. Our results demonstrate that winters with low global radiation may increase the risk of suicide. The best correlation found was for the 5-month period from November to March; the inter-annual variability in the cumulative global radiation for that period explained 40 % of the variation in the male suicide rate and 14 % of the variation in the female suicide rate, both at a statistically significant level. Long-term variations in global radiation may also explain, in part, the observed increasing trend in the suicide rate until 1990 and the decreasing trend since then in Finland.

Roles of density-dependent growth and life history evolution in accounting for fisheries-induced trait changes.

PubMed

Eikeset, Anne Maria; Dunlop, Erin S; Heino, Mikko; Storvik, Geir; Stenseth, Nils C; Dieckmann, Ulf

2016-12-27

The relative roles of density dependence and life history evolution in contributing to rapid fisheries-induced trait changes remain debated. In the 1930s, northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua), currently the world's largest cod stock, experienced a shift from a traditional spawning-ground fishery to an industrial trawl fishery with elevated exploitation in the stock's feeding grounds. Since then, age and length at maturation have declined dramatically, a trend paralleled in other exploited stocks worldwide. These trends can be explained by demographic truncation of the population's age structure, phenotypic plasticity in maturation arising through density-dependent growth, fisheries-induced evolution favoring faster-growing or earlier-maturing fish, or a combination of these processes. Here, we use a multitrait eco-evolutionary model to assess the capacity of these processes to reproduce 74 y of historical data on age and length at maturation in northeast Arctic cod, while mimicking the stock's historical harvesting regime. Our results show that model predictions critically depend on the assumed density dependence of growth: when this is weak, life history evolution might be necessary to prevent stock collapse, whereas when a stronger density dependence estimated from recent data is used, the role of evolution in explaining fisheries-induced trait changes is diminished. Our integrative analysis of density-dependent growth, multitrait evolution, and stock-specific time series data underscores the importance of jointly considering evolutionary and ecological processes, enabling a more comprehensive perspective on empirically observed stock dynamics than previous studies could provide.

Opioid analgesic use in Australia and The Netherlands: a cross-country comparison.

PubMed

Wagemaakers, Francisca N; Hollingworth, Samantha A; Kreijkamp-Kaspers, Sanne; Tee, Ernest H L; Leendertse, Anne J; van Driel, Mieke L

2017-08-01

Background Increasing use of opioid analgesics (OA) has been reported worldwide. Objective To compare the use of OA in two countries in order to better understand these trends. Setting Outpatient settings in Australia and The Netherlands. Method We analysed publicly available government data on outpatient OA dispensing over 15 years (2000-2014). We compared dispensing trends for specific OA and explored medical (national clinical guidelines), contextual and policy-related factors to explain differences in use between the two countries. Main outcome measure OA prescribing in Australia and The Netherlands, absolute volume of use, preferred types of opioids and changes over time. Results The average annual increase in OA prescribing was 10% in Australia and 8% in The Netherlands between 2000 and 2014. In 2014, the total use of OA was 10.0 daily defined doses (DDD)/1000 population/day in Australia and 9.4 DDD/1000 population/day in The Netherlands. In Australia, the most commonly prescribed opioids were oxycodone and tramadol, compared to fentanyl and tramadol in The Netherlands. We found differences in prescribing guidelines, culture of prescribing and regulatory frameworks that could explain some of the observed differences. Conclusion OA prescribing has increased remarkably in both countries between 2000 and 2014 but the types of prescribed OA vary. Differences in national evidence-based guidelines influenced the types of OA used. Prescribing culture as well as regulatory policies and costs, may also contribute to the different patterns of OA use.

Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yanxu; Jacob, Daniel J.; Horowitz, Hannah M.; Chen, Long; Amos, Helen M.; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Slemr, Franz; St. Louis, Vincent L.; Sunderland, Elsie M.

2016-01-01

Observations of elemental mercury (Hg0) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼1–2% y−1) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (<1% y−1). These decreases are inconsistent with current global emission inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: (i) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; (ii) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and (iii) they do not properly account for the change in Hg0/HgII speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO2 and NOx. We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg0 emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg0 concentrations and in HgII wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities. PMID:26729866

Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions.

PubMed

Zhang, Yanxu; Jacob, Daniel J; Horowitz, Hannah M; Chen, Long; Amos, Helen M; Krabbenhoft, David P; Slemr, Franz; St Louis, Vincent L; Sunderland, Elsie M

2016-01-19

Observations of elemental mercury (Hg(0)) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼ 1-2% y(-1)) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (<1% y(-1)). These decreases are inconsistent with current global emission inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: (i) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; (ii) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and (iii) they do not properly account for the change in Hg(0)/Hg(II) speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO2 and NOx. We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg(0) emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg(0) concentrations and in Hg(II) wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities.

Theoretical Study of Fe(CO)n-

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricca, Alessandra; Baushlicher, Charles W., Jr.

1995-01-01

The structures and CO binding energies are computed for Fe(CO)n- using a hybrid density functional theory (DFT) approach. The structures and ground states can be explained in terms of maximizing the Fe to CO 2pi* donation and minimizing Fe-CO 5 sigma repulsion. The trends in the CO binding energies for Fe(CO)n- and the differences between the trends for Fe(CO)n- and Fe(CO)n are also explained. For Fe(CO)n-, the second, third, and fourth CO bonding energies are in good agreement with experiment, while the first is too small. The first CO binding is also too small using the coupled cluster singles and doubles approach including a perturbation estimate of the connected triple excitations.

Can time-dependent density functional theory predict intersystem crossing in organic chromophores? A case study on benzo(bis)-X-diazole based donor-acceptor-donor type molecules.

PubMed

Tam, Teck Lip Dexter; Lin, Ting Ting; Chua, Ming Hui

2017-06-21

Here we utilized new diagnostic tools in time-dependent density functional theory to explain the trend of intersystem crossing in benzo(bis)-X-diazole based donor-acceptor-donor type molecules. These molecules display a wide range of fluorescence quantum yields and triplet yields, making them excellent candidates for testing the validity of these diagnostic tools. We believe that these tools are cost-effective and can be applied to structurally similar organic chromophores to predict/explain the trends of intersystem crossing, and thus fluorescence quantum yields and triplet yields without the use of complex and expensive multireference configuration interaction or multireference pertubation theory methods.

Genetic algorithm learning in a New Keynesian macroeconomic setup.

PubMed

Hommes, Cars; Makarewicz, Tomasz; Massaro, Domenico; Smits, Tom

2017-01-01

In order to understand heterogeneous behavior amongst agents, empirical data from Learning-to-Forecast (LtF) experiments can be used to construct learning models. This paper follows up on Assenza et al. (2013) by using a Genetic Algorithms (GA) model to replicate the results from their LtF experiment. In this GA model, individuals optimize an adaptive, a trend following and an anchor coefficient in a population of general prediction heuristics. We replicate experimental treatments in a New-Keynesian environment with increasing complexity and use Monte Carlo simulations to investigate how well the model explains the experimental data. We find that the evolutionary learning model is able to replicate the three different types of behavior, i.e. convergence to steady state, stable oscillations and dampened oscillations in the treatments using one GA model. Heterogeneous behavior can thus be explained by an adaptive, anchor and trend extrapolating component and the GA model can be used to explain heterogeneous behavior in LtF experiments with different types of complexity.

Physical activity and cardiovascular risk factors in a 40- to 42-year-old rural Norwegian population from 1975-2010: repeated cross-sectional surveys.

PubMed

Solbraa, Ane Kristiansen; Holme, Ingar Morten; Graff-Iversen, Sidsel; Resaland, Geir Kåre; Aadland, Eivind; Anderssen, Sigmund Alfred

2014-06-07

Geographical differences in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been observed among Norwegian counties. Better long-term health status and higher physical activity (PA) levels have been documented in the county of Sogn & Fjordane compared with other counties. However, recent trends in CVD risk factors have not been documented. The aim of this study was to investigate the secular trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and other CVD risk factors over a 35-year period in a rural population of 40- to 42-year-olds in western Norway and to compare these trends with national trends. Data from eight cross-sectional studies from 1975-2010 (n = 375,682) were obtained from questionnaires and physical examinations and were analyzed using mixed model regression analyses. Decreasing trends were observed for sedentary behavior (for women), moderate PA, smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high-density lipoprotein (HDL-c) and total cholesterol (TC), whereas increasing trends were observed for body mass index (BMI), triglycerides (TG), light PA, vigorous PA and sedentary behavior for men. Compared to the national trends, the trends in the 40-42-year-olds from Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial in terms of TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial in terms of SBP and DBP. Over a 35-year-period, this study indicates that the LTPA level has been relatively stable in the county of Sogn & Fjordane. Upward trends were observed in light and vigorous PA, whereas a downward trend was observed in moderate PA. For sedentary behavior, an upward trend was observed in men, whereas a downward trend was observed in women. For smoking, BP and cholesterol decreasing trends were found, but increasing trends were observed in BMI and TG. Compared with the national data, the trends in Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial for TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial for BP.

Physical activity and cardiovascular risk factors in a 40- to 42-year-old rural Norwegian population from 1975–2010: repeated cross-sectional surveys

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Geographical differences in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been observed among Norwegian counties. Better long-term health status and higher physical activity (PA) levels have been documented in the county of Sogn & Fjordane compared with other counties. However, recent trends in CVD risk factors have not been documented. The aim of this study was to investigate the secular trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and other CVD risk factors over a 35-year period in a rural population of 40- to 42-year-olds in western Norway and to compare these trends with national trends. Methods Data from eight cross-sectional studies from 1975–2010 (n = 375,682) were obtained from questionnaires and physical examinations and were analyzed using mixed model regression analyses. Results Decreasing trends were observed for sedentary behavior (for women), moderate PA, smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high-density lipoprotein (HDL-c) and total cholesterol (TC), whereas increasing trends were observed for body mass index (BMI), triglycerides (TG), light PA, vigorous PA and sedentary behavior for men. Compared to the national trends, the trends in the 40-42-year-olds from Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial in terms of TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial in terms of SBP and DBP. Conclusions Over a 35-year-period, this study indicates that the LTPA level has been relatively stable in the county of Sogn & Fjordane. Upward trends were observed in light and vigorous PA, whereas a downward trend was observed in moderate PA. For sedentary behavior, an upward trend was observed in men, whereas a downward trend was observed in women. For smoking, BP and cholesterol decreasing trends were found, but increasing trends were observed in BMI and TG. Compared with the national data, the trends in Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial for TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial for BP. PMID:24906521

National Trends in Patients Hospitalized for Stroke and Stroke Mortality in France, 2008 to 2014.

PubMed

Lecoffre, Camille; de Peretti, Christine; Gabet, Amélie; Grimaud, Olivier; Woimant, France; Giroud, Maurice; Béjot, Yannick; Olié, Valérie

2017-11-01

Stroke is the leading cause of death in women and the third leading cause in men in France. In young adults (ie, <65 years old), an increase in the incidence of ischemic stroke was observed at a local scale between 1985 and 2011. After the implementation of the 2010 to 2014 National Stroke Action Plan, this study investigates national trends in patients hospitalized by stroke subtypes, in-hospital mortality, and stroke mortality between 2008 and 2014. Hospitalization data were extracted from the French national hospital discharge databases and mortality data from the French national medical causes of death database. Time trends were tested using a Poisson regression model. From 2008 to 2014, the age-standardized rates of patients hospitalized for ischemic stroke increased by 14.3% in patients <65 years old and decreased by 1.5% in those aged ≥65 years. The rate of patients hospitalized for hemorrhagic stroke was stable (+2.0%), irrespective of age and sex. The proportion of patients hospitalized in stroke units substantially increased. In-hospital mortality decreased by 17.1% in patients with ischemic stroke. From 2008 to 2013, stroke mortality decreased, except for women between 45 and 64 years old and for people aged ≥85 years. An increase in cardiovascular risk factors and improved stroke management may explain the increase in the rates of patients hospitalized for ischemic stroke. The decrease observed for in-hospital stroke mortality may be because of recent improvements in acute-phase management. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Systematic Reviews and Clinical Trials in Rehabilitation: Comprehensive Analyses of Publication Trends.

PubMed

Jesus, Tiago S

2016-11-01

To analyze publication trends of clinical trials (CTs) and systematic reviews (SRs) in rehabilitation. PubMed searches were performed with appropriate combinations of Medical Subject Headings. All entries until December 2013, and their yearly distributions since 1981 (when the first rehabilitation SR was identified), were retrieved. After the initial data visualization, data analyses were narrowed to specific periods. Linear regression techniques analyzed the growth of publications and their relative percentages over time. Not applicable. Not applicable. Not applicable. Not applicable. Although not observed for SRs, CTs have grown at a much higher rate in rehabilitation than in the broader health/medical field-more than twice the difference for both periods analyzed (1989-2001, 2001-2013). Rehabilitation journals published about 20% or less of the rehabilitation SRs and CTs, and no significant increases were observed over time (P>.05; 2001-2013). Neurologic conditions, particularly cerebrovascular, were the most addressed by rehabilitation SRs and CTs, while differences between neurologic and other groups of conditions typically widened over time (eg, more than doubled between neurologic and musculoskeletal conditions in 15y). While publications of CTs are increasing at a much higher rate within rehabilitation than within broader health care, further research is warranted to explain why this trend is not being followed by SRs, particularly those with meta-analysis. Similarly, research might determine whether the (growing) differences in the publications of rehabilitation SRs and CTs across groups of conditions are justified by clinical or population need. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comprehensive overview of the spatial and temporal variability of apple bud dormancy release and blooming phenology in Western Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legave, Jean Michel; Blanke, Michael; Christen, Danilo; Giovannini, Daniela; Mathieu, Vincent; Oger, Robert

2013-03-01

In the current context of global warming, an analysis is required of spatially-extensive and long-term blooming data in fruit trees to make up for insufficient information on regional-scale blooming changes and determinisms that are key to the phenological adaptation of these species. We therefore analysed blooming dates over long periods at climate-contrasted sites in Western Europe, focusing mainly on the Golden Delicious apple that is grown worldwide. On average, blooming advances were more pronounced in northern continental (10 days) than in western oceanic (6-7 days) regions, while the shortest advance was found on the Mediterranean coastline. Temporal trends toward blooming phase shortenings were also observed in continental regions. These regional differences in temporal variability across Western Europe resulted in a decrease in spatial variability, i.e. shorter time intervals between blooming dates in contrasted regions (8-10-day decrease for full bloom between Mediterranean and continental regions). Fitted sequential models were used to reproduce phenological changes. Marked trends toward shorter simulated durations of forcing period (bud growth from dormancy release to blooming) and high positive correlations between these durations and observed blooming dates support the notion that blooming advances and shortenings are mainly due to faster satisfaction of the heating requirement. However, trends toward later dormancy releases were also noted in oceanic and Mediterranean regions. This could tend toward blooming delays and explain the shorter advances in these regions despite similar or greater warming. The regional differences in simulated chilling and forcing periods were consistent with the regional differences in temperature increases.

Nonlinear effects in defect production by atomic and molecular ion implantation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

David, C., E-mail: david@igcar.gov.in; Dholakia, Manan; Chandra, Sharat

This report deals with studies concerning vacancy related defects created in silicon due to implantation of 200 keV per atom aluminium and its molecular ions up to a plurality of 4. The depth profiles of vacancy defects in samples in their as implanted condition are carried out by Doppler broadening spectroscopy using low energy positron beams. In contrast to studies in the literature reporting a progressive increase in damage with plurality, implantation of aluminium atomic and molecular ions up to Al{sub 3}, resulted in production of similar concentration of vacancy defects. However, a drastic increase in vacancy defects is observed duemore » to Al{sub 4} implantation. The observed behavioural trend with respect to plurality has even translated to the number of vacancies locked in vacancy clusters, as determined through gold labelling experiments. The impact of aluminium atomic and molecular ions simulated using MD showed a monotonic increase in production of vacancy defects for cluster sizes up to 4. The trend in damage production with plurality has been explained on the basis of a defect evolution scheme in which for medium defect concentrations, there is a saturation of the as-implanted damage and an increase for higher defect concentrations.« less

Regional demographic trends from long-term studies of saguaro (Carnegiea gigantea) across the northern Sonoran Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pierson, Elizabeth A.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Turner, Raymond M.

2013-01-01

Ten saguaro (Carnegiea gigantea) populations in the northern Sonoran Desert were monitored from 1959 to 2005 to discriminate how climate influences plant growth, abundance, reproductive potential, survivorship, age structure and regeneration trends. Thousands of saguaros were measured to determine site-specific growth rates and survivorship through time. Observed growth rates were used to predict the ages of saguaros and reconstruct local and regional regeneration patterns back to the late 18th century. Both growth rates and degree of branching generally tracked temperature and moisture gradients. Site-specific age-height models explained 89-97% of variance in observed ages, with a slope of nearly one. Regeneration was more consistent at sites in the western (hotter/drier) than eastern (cooler/wetter) sites, which exhibited clear multidecadal variability in regeneration rates. Averaged across the region, saguaro regeneration rates were highest from 1780 to 1860, coincident with wet conditions and high Pinus ponderosa recruitment in the highlands. Milder and wetter winters and protection from livestock grazing likely promoted late 20th century regeneration surges at some sites. Predictions of saguaro population dynamics in the 21st century likely will be confounded by the saguaro's episodic and asynchronous regeneration, continued urbanization, ongoing grass invasions and associated wildfires, and changing climate.

Long-term trends of bloater (Coregonus hoyi) recruitment in Lake Michigan: evidence for the effect of sex ratio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunnell, David B.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Croley, Thomas E.

2006-01-01

Long-term population trends are generally explained by factors extrinsic (e.g., climate, predation) rather than intrinsic (e.g., genetics, maternal effects) to the population. We sought to understand the long-term population dynamics of an important native Lake Michigan prey fish, the bloaterCoregonus hoyi. Over a 38-year time series, three 10- to 15-year phases occurred (poor, excellent, and then poor recruitment) without high interannual variability within a particular phase. We used dynamic linear models to determine whether extrinsic (winter and spring temperature, alewife predator densities) or intrinsic factors (population egg production, adult condition, adult sex ratio) explained variation in recruitment. Models that included population egg production, sex ratio, winter and spring temperature, and adult bloater condition explained the most variation. Of these variables, sex ratio, which ranged from 47% to 97% female across the time series, consistently had the greatest effect: recruitment declined with female predominance. Including biomass of adult alewife predators in the models did not explain additional variation. Overall our results indicated that bloater recruitment is linked to its sex ratio, but understanding the underlying mechanisms will require additional efforts.

The role of life cycle processes on phytoplankton spring bloom composition: a modelling study applied to the Gulf of Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Soonmi; Hofmeister, Richard; Hense, Inga

2018-02-01

Diatoms are typical representatives of the spring bloom worldwide. In several parts of the Baltic Sea, however, cold-water dinoflagellates such as Biecheleria baltica have become dominant during the past decades. We have investigated the mechanisms behind this trend by using an ecosystem model which includes the life cycles of three main phytoplankton groups (diatoms, dinoflagellates and cyanobacteria). Coupled to a water column model we have applied the model system for the period 1981-2010 to the Gulf of Finland. In agreement with observations, the model results show an increasing trend in the proportion of dinoflagellates in the Gulf of Finland. Temperature and life cycle-related processes explain the relative increase of dinoflagellates and corresponding decrease of diatoms. Warming over the 30 years has enabled a head start of dinoflagellates by reducing the time lag between germination and growth of vegetative cells. Although diatoms have a much higher growth rate, they cannot compete with the high dinoflagellate concentrations that result from the inoculum. Diatoms will only dominate in years when the inoculum concentrations of dinoflagellates or the temperatures are low. Overall, the model results suggest that consideration of life cycle dynamics of competing phytoplankton groups may be crucial to understand trends and shifts in community composition.

Exploring the determinants of secular decreases in dental caries among Korean children.

PubMed

Lee, Hye-Ju; Han, Dong-Hun

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to determine the contributions of sealant and water fluoridation to the time trends in dental caries from 2003 to 2010. Data were from three waves of the Korean National Oral Health Surveys between 2003 and 2010, including a total of 23 059 children (11 889 boys and 11 170 girls) aged 8, 10, and 12 years. The impacts of sealant and water fluoridation on dental caries were obtained by logistic regression for each age group of children. The contributions of sealant and water fluoridation to the time trends in the prevalence of dental caries were examined by a series of logistic regression models, and changes in the adjusted odds ratios for each survey year were also calculated. Over the past 7 years, the prevalence of dental caries decreased dramatically. Although sealant had a significant impact on dental caries in each survey year, remarkable decreases in dental caries from 2003 to 2010 were not explained by the secular changes in the dental sealant or water fluoridation factor. We observed important population declines in dental caries in Korea in children aged 8-12 years; however, the likely causes for these secular trends remain to be determined. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Trend and variability of atmospheric ozone over middle Indo-Gangetic Plain: impacts of seasonality and precursor gases.

PubMed

Shukla, K; Srivastava, Prashant K; Banerjee, T; Aneja, Viney P

2017-01-01

Ozone dynamics in two urban background atmospheres over middle Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) were studied in two contexts: total columnar and ground-level ozone. In terms of total columnar ozone (TCO), emphases were made to compare satellite-based retrieval with ground-based observation and existing trend in decadal and seasonal variation was also identified. Both satellite-retrieved (Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument-Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (OMI-DOAS)) and ground-based observations (IMD-O 3 ) revealed satisfying agreement with OMI-DOAS observation over predicting TCO with a positive bias of 7.24 % under all-sky conditions. Minor variation between daily daytime (r = 0.54; R 2  = 29 %; n = 275) and satellite overpass time-averaged TCO (r = 0.58; R 2  = 34 %; n = 208) was also recognized. A consistent and clear seasonal trend in columnar ozone (2005-2015) was noted with summertime (March-June) maxima (Varanasi, 290.9 ± 8.8; Lucknow, 295.6 ± 9.5 DU) and wintertime (December-February) minima (Varanasi, 257.4 ± 10.1; Lucknow, 258.8 ± 8.8 DU). Seasonal trend decomposition based on locally weighted regression smoothing technique identified marginally decreasing trend (Varanasi, 0.0084; Lucknow, 0.0096 DU year -1 ) especially due to reduction in monsoon time minima and summertime maxima. In continuation to TCO, variation in ground-level ozone in terms of seasonality and precursor gases were also analysed from September 2014 to August 2015. Both stations registered similar pattern of variation with Lucknow representing slightly higher annual mean (44.3 ± 30.6; range, 1.5-309.1 μg/m 3 ) over Varanasi (38.5 ± 17.7; range, 4.9-104.2 μg/m 3 ). Variation in ground-level ozone was further explained in terms water vapour, atmospheric boundary layer height and solar radiation. Ambient water vapour content was found to associate negatively (r = -0.28, n = 284) with ground-level ozone with considerable seasonal variation in Varanasi. Implication of solar radiation on formation of ground-level ozone was overall positive (Varanasi, 0.60; Lucknow, 0.26), while season-specific association was recorded in case of atmospheric boundary layer.

Is there a signal of sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay salinity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hilton, T. W.; Najjar, R. G.; Zhong, L.; Li, M.

2008-09-01

We evaluate the hypothesis that sea-level rise over the second half of the 20th century has led to detectable increases in Chesapeake Bay salinity. We exploit a simple, statistical model that predicts monthly mean salinity as a function of Susquehanna River flow in 23 segments of the main stem Chesapeake Bay. The residual (observed minus modeled) salinity exhibits statistically significant linear (p < 0.05) trends between 1949 and 2006 in 13 of the 23 segments of the bay. The salinity change estimated from the trend line over this period varies from -2.0 to 2.2, with 10 of the 13 cells showing positive changes. The mean and median salinity changes over all 23 cells are 0.47 and 0.72; over the 13 cells with significant trends they are 0.71 and 1.1. We ran a hydrodynamic model of the bay under present-day and reduced sea level conditions and found a bay-average salinity increase of about 0.5, which supports the hypothesis that the salinity residual trends have a significant component due to sea-level rise. Uncertainties remain, however, due to the spatial and temporal extent of historical salinity data and the infilling of the bay due to sedimentation. The salinity residuals also exhibit interannual variability, with peaks occurring at intervals of roughly 7 to 9 years, which are partially explained by Atlantic Shelf salinity, Potomac River flow and the meridional component of wind stress.

Limitations of Vegetation Indices For Detecting Pasture Degradation: A Case Study of Montane Pastoral Systems in Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eddy, I. M. S.; Gergel, S. E.

2015-12-01

Grazing is the most extensive land use on Earth. Widespread consequences of overgrazing pastures include long-term decreases in plant biomass and limited recovery of vegetation. Remotely-sensed vegetation indices linked to biomass (e.g. NDVI) are routinely used to monitor pasture health over broad areas to track pasture degradation and recovery over time. Unfortunately, overgrazing can impact vegetation in various other ways not easily evaluated using satellite imagery, such as by altering species composition. Furthermore, the response of vegetation to grazing may be influenced by underlying terrain and topographic gradients. We examined multi-decadal trends in pasture condition in Kyrgyzstan, a country where pasture degradation is of serious concern. Using a chronosequence of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery, we compared fifteen-year trends in NDVI with contemporary field-based measurements of pasture health in thirty 1-km 2 sites. Multivariate regression was used to discern the relationship between long-term NDVI trends and pasture health in pastures of differing terrain (areas of varying topographic wetness index and solar insolation). Preliminary results suggest that pasture degradation can be correlated with either positive or negative changes in NDVI depending upon the topographic position of the pasture. Furthermore, terrain characteristics explained a considerable portion of the observed variance in NDVI trends across the region. Improving our understanding of grazing impacts in montane systems is critical given their vulnerability to impending climate change.

Total Land Water Storage Change over 2003 - 2013 Estimated from a Global Mass Budget Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dieng, H. B.; Champollion, N.; Cazenave, A.; Wada, Y.; Schrama, E.; Meyssignac, B.

2015-01-01

We estimate the total land water storage (LWS) change between 2003 and 2013 using a global water mass budget approach. Hereby we compare the ocean mass change (estimated from GRACE space gravimetry on the one hand, and from the satellite altimetry-based global mean sea level corrected for steric effects on the other hand) to the sum of the main water mass components of the climate system: glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets, atmospheric water and LWS (the latter being the unknown quantity to be estimated). For glaciers and ice sheets, we use published estimates of ice mass trends based on various types of observations covering different time spans between 2003 and 2013. From the mass budget equation, we derive a net LWS trend over the study period. The mean trend amounts to +0.30 +/- 0.18 mm/yr in sea level equivalent. This corresponds to a net decrease of -108 +/- 64 cu km/yr in LWS over the 2003-2013 decade. We also estimate the rate of change in LWS and find no significant acceleration over the study period. The computed mean global LWS trend over the study period is shown to be explained mainly by direct anthropogenic effects on land hydrology, i.e. the net effect of groundwater depletion and impoundment of water in man-made reservoirs, and to a lesser extent the effect of naturally-forced land hydrology variability. Our results compare well with independent estimates of human-induced changes in global land hydrology.

Flat-roof phenomenon of dynamic equilibrium phase in the negative bias temperature instability effect on a power MOSFET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yue; Zhuo, Qing-Qing; Liu, Hong-Xia; Ma, Xiao-Hua; Hao, Yue

2014-05-01

The effect of the static negative bias temperature (NBT) stress on a p-channel power metal—oxide—semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) is investigated by experiment and simulation. The time evolution of the negative bias temperature instability (NBTI) degradation has the trend predicted by the reaction—diffusion (R—D) model but with an exaggerated time scale. The phenomena of the flat-roof section are observed under various stress conditions, which can be considered as the dynamic equilibrium phase in the R—D process. Based on the simulated results, the variation of the flat-roof section with the stress condition can be explained.

Trends in Irish-Medium Education in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1920: Shifting Agents and Explanations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McAdory, Sara E.; Janmaat, Jan Germen

2015-01-01

Some recent studies have suggested a significant bottom-up or parental component to recent movements for autochthonous minority language-medium education (MLME). This study takes MLME as the outcome of interest and seeks to explain trends in Irish-medium education (IME) in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland since 1920--a unique…

Trends in simulated chemical composition of global and regional population-weighted fine particulate matter over the recent 25 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.; Martin, R.; van Donkelaar, A.; Boys, B.; Hammer, M. S.; Xu, J.; Marais, E. A.; Reff, A.; Strum, M.; Ridley, D. A.; Crippa, M.; Zhang, Q.

2017-12-01

We interpret in situ and satellite observations with a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to understand global trends in population-weighted mean chemical composition of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over 1989-2013. Simulated PM2.5 composition concentrations at 2˚ × 2.5˚ resolution are downscaled to 0.1˚ × 0.1˚ with satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 to better represent population exposure. Trends in simulated and observed population-weighted mean PM2.5 composition over 1989-2013 exhibit a high degree of consistency for (in situ vs. downscaled simulation) PM2.5 (-2.4 vs. -2.4 % yr-1), secondary inorganic aerosols (-4.3 vs. -4.1% yr-1), organic aerosols (OA, -3.6 vs. -3.0 % yr-1) and black carbon (-4.3 vs. -3.9 % yr-1) over North America, as well as sulfate (-4.7 vs. -5.8 % yr-1) over Europe. The downscaled simulation also has overlapping 95% confidence intervals with satellite-derived trends in population-weighted mean PM2.5 for 20 of the 21 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) regions over 1998-2013. Over 1989-2013, most (79%) of the simulated increase in global population-weighted mean PM2.5 of 0.28 μg m-3yr-1 is explained by significantly (p < 0.05) increasing OA (0.10 μg m-3yr-1), nitrate (0.05 μg m-3yr-1), sulfate (0.04 μg m-3yr-1) and ammonium (0.03 μg m-3yr-1). These species predominantly drive trends in population-weighted mean PM2.5 over populous regions of South Asia (0.94 μg m-3yr-1), East Asia (0.66 μg m-3yr-1), Western Europe (-0.47 μg m-3yr-1) and North America (-0.32 μg m-3yr-1), primarily due to changes in anthropogenic emissions. Mineral dust from deserts and OA over open burning regions usually cause weak, insignificant trends in population-weighted mean PM2.5, despite strong inter-annual variation. Global trends in area-weighted mean PM2.5 differ significantly from population-weighted trends in both the magnitude and sign, indicating the importance of population weighting for relevance to human exposure studies. This study provides new insights into global changes in PM2.5 exposure through the recent 25 years, with particular attention given to the evolution of PM2.5 composition.

Increasing species richness of the macrozoobenthic fauna on tidal flats of the Wadden Sea by local range expansion and invasion of exotic species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beukema, J. J.; Dekker, R.

2011-06-01

A 40-y series of consistently collected samples (15 fixed sampling sites, constant sampled area of 15 × 0.95 m2, annual sampling only in late-winter/early-spring seasons, and consistent sieving and sorting procedures; restriction to 50 easily recognizable species) of macrozoobenthos on Balgzand, a tidal flat area in the westernmost part of the Wadden Sea (The Netherlands), revealed significantly increasing trends of species richness. Total numbers of species annually encountered increased from ~28 to ~38. Mean species density (number of species found per sampling site) increased from ~13 to ~18 per 0.95 m2. During the 40 years of the 1970-2009 period of observation, 4 exotic species invaded the area: (in order of first appearance) Ensis directus, Marenzelleria viridis, Crassostrea gigas, and Hemigrapsus takanoi. Another 5 species recently moved to Balgzand from nearby (subtidal) locations. Together, these 9 new species on the tidal flats explained by far most of the increase in total species numbers, but accounted for only one-third of the observed increase in species density (as a consequence of the restricted distribution of most of them). Species density increased particularly by a substantial number of species that showed increasing trends in the numbers of tidal flat sites they occupied. Most of these wider-spreading species were found to suffer from cold winters. During the 40-y period of observation, winter temperatures rose by about 2°C and cold winters became less frequent. The mean number of cold-sensitive species found per site significantly increased by almost 2 per 0.95 m2. Among the other species (not sensitive to low winter temperatures), 6 showed a rising and 2 a declining trend in number of occupied sites, resulting in a net long-term increase in species density amounting to another gain of 1.6 per 0.95 m2. Half of the 50 studied species did not show such long-term trend, nor were invaders. Thus, each of 3 groups (local or alien invaders/winter-sensitive species/other increasing species) contributed to a roughly similar extent to the overall increase in species density.

Trends in aerosol optical depth in the Russian Arctic and their links with synoptic climatology.

PubMed

Shahgedanova, Maria; Lamakin, Mikhail

2005-04-01

Temporal and spatial variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are examined using observations of direct solar radiation in the Eurasian Arctic for 1940-1990. AOD is estimated using empirical methods for 14 stations located between 66.2 degrees N and 80.6 degrees N, from the Kara Sea to the Chukchi Sea. While AOD exhibits a well-known springtime maximum and summertime minimum at all stations, atmospheric turbidity is higher in spring in the western (Kara-Laptev) part of the Eurasian Arctic. Between June and August, the eastern (East Siberian-Chukchi) sector experiences higher transparency than the western part. A statistically significant positive trend in AOD was observed in the Kara-Laptev sector between the late 1950s and the early 1980s predominantly in spring when pollution-derived aerosol dominates the Arctic atmosphere but not in the eastern sector. Although all stations are remote, those with positive trends are located closer to the anthropogenic sources of air pollution. By contrast, a widespread decline in AOD was observed between 1982 and 1990 in the eastern Arctic in spring but was limited to two sites in the western Arctic. These results suggest that the post-1982 decline in anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the former Soviet Union has had a limited effect on aerosol load in the Arctic. The post-1982 negative trends in AOD in summer, when marine aerosol is present in the atmosphere, were more common in the west. The relationships between AOD and atmospheric circulation are examined using a synoptic climatology approach. In spring, AOD depends primarily on the strength and direction of air flow. Thus strong westerly and northerly flows result in low AOD values in the East Siberian-Chukchi sector. By contrast, strong southerly flow associated with the passage of depressions results in high AOD in the Kara-Laptev sector and trajectory analysis points to the contribution of industrial regions of the sub-Arctic. In summer, low pressure gradient or anticyclonic conditions result in high atmospheric turbidity. The frequency of this weather type has declined significantly since the early 1980s in the Kara-Laptev sector, which partly explains the decline in summer AOD values.

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

DOE PAGES

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan; ...

2016-06-10

Here, we use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We also found that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias inmore » CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. Our results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.« less

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan

Here, we use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We also found that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias inmore » CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. Our results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.« less

Interpreting Space-Based Trends in Carbon Monoxide with Multiple Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan; Douglass, Anne R.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Emmons, Louisa K.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Manyin, Michael; Oman, Luke D.; Rodriguez, Jose M.;

Discrepancy between simulated and observed ethane and propane levels explained by underestimated fossil emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalsøren, Stig B.; Myhre, Gunnar; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Myhre, Cathrine Lund; Stohl, Andreas; Pisso, Ignacio; Schwietzke, Stefan; Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Helmig, Detlev; Reimann, Stefan; Sauvage, Stéphane; Schmidbauer, Norbert; Read, Katie A.; Carpenter, Lucy J.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Punjabi, Shalini; Wallasch, Markus

2018-03-01

Ethane and propane are the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbons in the atmosphere. However, their emissions, atmospheric distribution, and trends in their atmospheric concentrations are insufficiently understood. Atmospheric model simulations using standard community emission inventories do not reproduce available measurements in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we show that observations of pre-industrial and present-day ethane and propane can be reproduced in simulations with a detailed atmospheric chemistry transport model, provided that natural geologic emissions are taken into account and anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions are assumed to be two to three times higher than is indicated in current inventories. Accounting for these enhanced ethane and propane emissions results in simulated surface ozone concentrations that are 5-13% higher than previously assumed in some polluted regions in Asia. The improved correspondence with observed ethane and propane in model simulations with greater emissions suggests that the level of fossil (geologic + fossil fuel) methane emissions in current inventories may need re-evaluation.

Testing the influence of environmental heterogeneity on fish species richness in two biogeographic provinces.

PubMed

Massicotte, Philippe; Proulx, Raphaël; Cabana, Gilbert; Rodríguez, Marco A

2015-01-01

Environmental homogenization in coastal ecosystems impacted by human activities may be an important factor explaining the observed decline in fish species richness. We used fish community data (>200 species) from extensive surveys conducted in two biogeographic provinces (extent >1,000 km) in North America to quantify the relationship between fish species richness and local (grain <10 km(2)) environmental heterogeneity. Our analyses are based on samples collected at nearly 800 stations over a period of five years. We demonstrate that fish species richness in coastal ecosystems is associated locally with the spatial heterogeneity of environmental variables but not with their magnitude. The observed effect of heterogeneity on species richness was substantially greater than that generated by simulations from a random placement model of community assembly, indicating that the observed relationship is unlikely to arise from veil or sampling effects. Our results suggest that restoring or actively protecting areas of high habitat heterogeneity may be of great importance for slowing current trends of decreasing biodiversity in coastal ecosystems.

Learning Curves Among All Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation in Germany: A Retrospective Observational Study.

PubMed

Kaier, Klaus; Reinecke, Holger; Schmoor, Claudia; Frankenstein, Lutz; Vach, Werner; Hehn, Philip; Zirlik, Andreas; Bode, Christoph; Zehender, Manfred; Reinöhl, Jochen

2017-05-15

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is a rapidly evolving technique for therapy of aortic stenosis. Previous studies report learning curves with respect to in-hospital mortality and clinical complications. We aim to determine whether observed improvements of in-hospital outcomes after TAVI are the result of improvements in procedures or due to a change in the patient population, and whether improvements differ between the transfemoral (TF) and the transapical (TA) approach. Data was analyzed using risk-adjusted regression analyses in order to track the development of clinical outcomes of all isolated TAVI procedures performed in Germany from 2008 to 2013 (N=32.436) in all German hospitals performing TAVI. Measurements include in-hospital mortality, stroke, bleeding, and mechanical ventilation. Unadjusted mortality rates decrease over time for both TA-TAVI and TF-TAVI. Reductions in mortality were smaller for TA-TAVI than for TF-TAVI. These trends could also be observed for risk-adjusted (standardized) mortality rates, indicating that time trends and differences between TA-TAVI (around 7% in 2013) and TF-TAVI (around 4% in 2013) cannot be explained by changes in the risk factor composition of the patient populations. Bleeding complications decreased for both access routes. Both unadjusted and standardized bleeding rates were substantially higher for TA-TAVI. In addition, TA-TAVI procedures were associated with an increased likelihood of requiring >48h of mechanical ventilation. Observed improvements in TAVI-related in-hospital mortality are not due to a change in patient population. The results indicate the superiority of a TF-first approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Processed and unprocessed red meat consumption and hypertension in women.

PubMed

Lajous, Martin; Bijon, Anne; Fagherazzi, Guy; Rossignol, Emilie; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise

2014-09-01

High processed red meat consumption is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. The high sodium content of processed red meat could increase blood pressure and explain the association with cardiovascular disease. We evaluated the relation between the consumption of unprocessed and processed red meat and incident hypertension. In a prospective cohort of 44,616 disease-free French women who responded to a validated dietary questionnaire, we observed 10,256 incident cases of hypertension between 1993 and 2008. Cases were identified through self-reports of diagnosed or treated hypertension. Multivariate Cox regression models were adjusted for age, education, smoking, physical activity, body mass index, menopause, menopausal hormone therapy, and alcohol, bread, coffee, and fruit and vegetable consumption. Women who consumed ≥5 servings of processed red meat/wk (50 g = 1 serving) had a 17% higher rate of hypertension than that of women who consumed <1 serving/wk (HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.26; P-trend = 0.0002). No association was observed between unprocessed red meat consumption and hypertension. When women who consumed ≥5 servings of unprocessed red meat/wk (100 g = 1 serving) were compared with women who consumed <1 serving unprocessed red meat/wk, the multivariate HR was 0.99 (95% CI: 0.91, 1.08; P-trend = 0.63). In this large prospective cohort of French women, we observed an association between the consumption of processed red meat and hypertension. We observed no association for unprocessed red meat consumption and hypertension. © 2014 American Society for Nutrition.

National and sub-national burden of breast cancer in Iran; 1990-2013.

PubMed

Naderimagham, Shohreh; Alipour, Sadaf; Djalalinia, Shirin; Kasaeian, Amir; Noori, Atefeh; Rahimzadeh, Shadi; Modirian, Mitra; Khosravi, Ardeshir; Etemad, Kourosh; Jamshidi, Hamid Reza; Farzadfar, Fashad

2014-12-01

Estimating the burden of diseases, injuries and major risk factors is necessary for adopting appropriate health policies in every country, and this paper aims to explain the study protocol of national and sub-national burden of breast cancer in Iran from 1990 to 2013. We will perform a systematic review of the confirmed databases and literature to gather data on breast cancer epidemiology in Iran. The definitions, data sources, organizing the team, methods of data gathering and data generating will be explained in this paper. The methodology of estimating the trend of prevalence, years of life lost due to premature death (YLLs), years of life lost due to disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years lost (DALYs) of breast cancer by age groups, provinces and probable inequalities will be explained. We will tackle possible data problems due to the lack of data points on provinces and years and also geographical misalignment by using two advanced statistical methods, namely Bayesian autoregressive multilevel and Spatio-temporal models. Trend estimation will be reported using these two models together with uncertainty intervals. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of breast cancer and its specific pattern in Iran. The results will help policy makers to know the trend of prevalence, the distribution, and the inequalities of breast cancer in Iran to allocate resources in a better way.

Multi-year objective analyses of warm season ground-level ozone and PM2.5 over North America using real-time observations and Canadian operational air quality models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robichaud, A.; Ménard, R.

2014-02-01

Multi-year objective analyses (OA) on a high spatiotemporal resolution for the warm season period (1 May to 31 October) for ground-level ozone and for fine particulate matter (diameter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5)) are presented. The OA used in this study combines model outputs from the Canadian air quality forecast suite with US and Canadian observations from various air quality surface monitoring networks. The analyses are based on an optimal interpolation (OI) with capabilities for adaptive error statistics for ozone and PM2.5 and an explicit bias correction scheme for the PM2.5 analyses. The estimation of error statistics has been computed using a modified version of the Hollingsworth-Lönnberg (H-L) method. The error statistics are "tuned" using a χ2 (chi-square) diagnostic, a semi-empirical procedure that provides significantly better verification than without tuning. Successful cross-validation experiments were performed with an OA setup using 90% of data observations to build the objective analyses and with the remainder left out as an independent set of data for verification purposes. Furthermore, comparisons with other external sources of information (global models and PM2.5 satellite surface-derived or ground-based measurements) show reasonable agreement. The multi-year analyses obtained provide relatively high precision with an absolute yearly averaged systematic error of less than 0.6 ppbv (parts per billion by volume) and 0.7 μg m-3 (micrograms per cubic meter) for ozone and PM2.5, respectively, and a random error generally less than 9 ppbv for ozone and under 12 μg m-3 for PM2.5. This paper focuses on two applications: (1) presenting long-term averages of OA and analysis increments as a form of summer climatology; and (2) analyzing long-term (decadal) trends and inter-annual fluctuations using OA outputs. The results show that high percentiles of ozone and PM2.5 were both following a general decreasing trend in North America, with the eastern part of the United States showing the most widespread decrease, likely due to more effective pollution controls. Some locations, however, exhibited an increasing trend in the mean ozone and PM2.5, such as the northwestern part of North America (northwest US and Alberta). Conversely, the low percentiles are generally rising for ozone, which may be linked to the intercontinental transport of increased emissions from emerging countries. After removing the decadal trend, the inter-annual fluctuations of the high percentiles are largely explained by the temperature fluctuations for ozone and to a lesser extent by precipitation fluctuations for PM2.5. More interesting is the economic short-term change (as expressed by the variation of the US gross domestic product growth rate), which explains 37% of the total variance of inter-annual fluctuations of PM2.5 and 15% in the case of ozone.

Report of the International Ozone Trends Panel 1988, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1989-01-01

Chapters on the following topics are presented: trends in stratospheric temperature; theory and observations- model simulations of the period 1955-1985; trends in source gases; trends in stratospheric minor constituents; trends in aerosol abundances and distribution; and observations and theories related to antarctic ozone.

Global Variation of Meteor Trail Plasma Turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dyrud, L. P.; Hinrichs, J.; Urbina, J.

2011-01-01

We present the first global simulations on the occurrence of meteor trail plasma irregularities. These results seek to answer the following questions: when a meteoroid disintegrates in the atmosphere will the resulting trail become plasma turbulent, what are the factors influencing the development of turbulence, and how do they vary on a global scale. Understanding meteor trail plasma turbulence is important because turbulent meteor trails are visible as non-specular trails to coherent radars, and turbulence influences the evolution of specular radar meteor trails, particularly regarding the inference of mesospheric temperatures from trail diffusion rates, and their usage for meteor burst communication. We provide evidence of the significant effect that neutral atmospheric winds and density, and ionospheric plasma density have on the variability of meteor trail evolution and the observation of nonspecular meteor trails, and demonstrate that trails are far less likely to become and remain turbulent in daylight, explaining several observational trends using non-specular and specular meteor trails.

Fusion hindrance at deep sub-barrier energies for the 11B+197Au system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrivastava, A.; Mahata, K.; Nanal, V.; Pandit, S. K.; Parkar, V. V.; Rout, P. C.; Dokania, N.; Ramachandran, K.; Kumar, A.; Chatterjee, A.; Kailas, S.

2017-09-01

Fusion cross sections for the 11B+197Au system have been measured at energies around and deep below the Coulomb barrier, to probe the occurrence of fusion hindrance in case of asymmetric systems. A deviation with respect to the standard coupled channels calculations has been observed at the lowest energy. The results have been compared with an adiabatic model calculation that considers a damping of the coupling strength for a gradual transition from sudden to adiabatic regime at very low energies. The data could be explained without inclusion of the damping factor. This implies that the influence of fusion hindrance is not significant within the measured energy range for this system. The present result is consistent with the observed trend between the degree of fusion hindrance and the charge product that reveals a weaker influence of hindrance on fusion involving lighter projectiles on heavy targets.

Identifying external influences on global precipitation

PubMed Central

Marvel, Kate; Bonfils, Céline

2013-01-01

Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle (“thermodynamic” changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt (“dynamic” changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities. PMID:24218561

Identifying external influences on global precipitation.

PubMed

Marvel, Kate; Bonfils, Céline

2013-11-26

Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle ("thermodynamic" changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt ("dynamic" changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities.

Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions.

PubMed

Swingedouw, Didier; Ortega, Pablo; Mignot, Juliette; Guilyardi, Eric; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Butler, Paul G; Khodri, Myriam; Séférian, Roland

2015-03-30

While bidecadal climate variability has been evidenced in several North Atlantic paleoclimate records, its drivers remain poorly understood. Here we show that the subset of CMIP5 historical climate simulations that produce such bidecadal variability exhibits a robust synchronization, with a maximum in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) 15 years after the 1963 Agung eruption. The mechanisms at play involve salinity advection from the Arctic and explain the timing of Great Salinity Anomalies observed in the 1970s and the 1990s. Simulations, as well as Greenland and Iceland paleoclimate records, indicate that coherent bidecadal cycles were excited following five Agung-like volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Climate simulations and a conceptual model reveal that destructive interference caused by the Pinatubo 1991 eruption may have damped the observed decreasing trend of the AMOC in the 2000s. Our results imply a long-lasting climatic impact and predictability following the next Agung-like eruption.

Effects of proton irradiation on luminescence and carrier dynamics of self-assembled III-V quatum dots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leon, R.; Marcinkevicius, S.; Siegert, J.; Magness, B.; Taylor, W.; Lobo, C.

2002-01-01

The effects of proton irradiation (1.5 MeV) on photoluminescence intensities and carrier dynamics were compared between III-V quantum dots and similar quantum well structures. A significant enhancement in radiation tolerance is seen with three-dimensional quantum confinement. Measurements were carried out in different quantum dot (QD) structures, varying in material (InGaAs/GaAs and InAlAs/AlGaAs), QD surface density (4x10^8 to 3x10'^10 cm^-2), and substrate orientation [(100) and (311) B]. Similar trends were observed for all QD samples. A slight increase in PL emission after low to intermediate proton doses, are also observed in InGaAs/GaAs (100) QD structures. The latter is explained in terms of more efficient carrier transfer from the wetting layer via radiation-induced defects.

Modeling the Dynamic Change of Air Quality and its Response to Emission Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Wei

This thesis focuses on evaluating atmospheric chemistry and transport models' capability in simulating the chemistry and dynamics of power plant plumes, evaluating their strengths and weaknesses in predicting air quality trends at regional scales, and exploring air quality trends in an urban area. First, the Community Mutlti-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is applied to simulate the physical and chemical evolution of power plant plumes (PPPs) during the second Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS) in 2006. SO2 and NOy were observed to be rapidly removed from PPPs on cloudy days but not on cloud-free days, indicating efficient aqueous processing of these compounds in clouds, while the model fails to capture the rapid loss of SO2 and NOy in some plumes on the cloudy day. Adjustments to cloud liquid water content (QC) and the default metal concentrations in the cloud module could explain some of the SO 2 loss while NOy in the model was insensitive to QC. Second, CMAQ is applied to simulate the ozone (O3) change after the NO x SIP Call and mobile emission controls in the eastern U.S. from 2002 to 2006. Observed downward changes in 8-hour O3 concentrations in the NOx SIP Call region were under-predicted by 26%--66%. The under-prediction in O3 improvements could be alleviated by 5%--31% by constraining NOx emissions in each year based on observed NOx concentrations while temperature biases or uncertainties in chemical reactions had minor impact on simulated O3 trends. Third, changes in ozone production in the Houston area is assessed with airborne measurements from TexAQS 2000 and 2006. Simultaneous declines in nitrogen oxides (NOx=NO+NO2) and highly reactive Volatile Organic Compounds (HRVOCs) were observed in the Houston Ship Channel (HSC). The reduction in HRVOCs led to the decline in total radical concentration by 20-50%. Rapid ozone production rates in the Houston area declined by 40-50% from 2000 to 2006, to which the reduction in NOx and HRVOCs had the similar contribution. Houston petrochemical and urban plumes largely remained in a strong VOC-sensitive regime of ozone formation and maintained high Ozone Production Efficiency (OPE: 5-15).

Satellite observed widespread decline in Mongolian grasslands largely due to overgrazing.

PubMed

Hilker, Thomas; Natsagdorj, Enkhjargal; Waring, Richard H; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie

2014-02-01

The Mongolian Steppe is one of the largest remaining grassland ecosystems. Recent studies have reported widespread decline of vegetation across the steppe and about 70% of this ecosystem is now considered degraded. Among the scientific community there has been an active debate about whether the observed degradation is related to climate, or over-grazing, or both. Here, we employ a new atmospheric correction and cloud screening algorithm (MAIAC) to investigate trends in satellite observed vegetation phenology. We relate these trends to changes in climate and domestic animal populations. A series of harmonic functions is fitted to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observed phenological curves to quantify seasonal and inter-annual changes in vegetation. Our results show a widespread decline (of about 12% on average) in MODIS observed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) across the country but particularly in the transition zone between grassland and the Gobi desert, where recent decline was as much as 40% below the 2002 mean NDVI. While we found considerable regional differences in the causes of landscape degradation, about 80% of the decline in NDVI could be attributed to increase in livestock. Changes in precipitation were able to explain about 30% of degradation across the country as a whole but up to 50% in areas with denser vegetation cover (P < 0.05). Temperature changes, while significant, played only a minor role (r(2)  = 0.10, P < 0.05). Our results suggest that the cumulative effect of overgrazing is a primary contributor to the degradation of the Mongolian steppe and is at least partially responsible for desertification reported in previous studies. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparative Analysis of Seasonal Variation in Tropospheric Nitrogen Dioxide over Pakistan and Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fahim Khokhar, Muhammad; Wagner, Thomas; Jamil, Mohsin

2016-07-01

In this study, spatial and temporal distributions of tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities over Pakistan and Saudi Arabia during the time period of 2004-2015 are discussed. Data products from the satellite instrument OMI are used. The results show a large NO2 growth over major cities of both countries, particularly the areas with rapid urbanization. Different seasonal cycles were observed over both countries. Especially, seasonal variation in tropospheric NO2 over Pakistan is largely impacted by the photolysis rate, OH radical and monsoon rains in addition to soil emissions, agriculture fires and other anthropogenic activities. While in the case of Saudi Arabia, the seasonal variation in tropospheric NO2 is completely driven by thermal power generation. Furthermore, different regions of Pakistan exhibited different seasonal trends. In the provinces of Punjab (north-east), Khyber Paktunkhwa (north-west) and Sindh (south-east), NO2 columns are maximum in winter and minimum in summer months while a reversed seasonality was observed in the province of Baluchistan (south-west). We compared the observed Spatio-temporal patterns to existing emission inventories and found that for the most populated provinces the NOx emissions are clearly dominated by anthropogenic sources. In these areas also the strongest positive trends were observed. NOx released from soils and produced by lightning both together contribute about 20% for the provinces of Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, while its contribution in Baluchistan is much stronger (~50%). NOx emissions from biomass burning are negligible. This finding can also explain the observed summer maximum in Baluchistan since the highest lightning activity occurs during the Monsoon season. Our comparison also indicates that the inventories of anthropogenic NOx emissions over Pakistan seem to underestimate the true emissions by about a factor of two.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Hengxiao; Gu, Minfeng, E-mail: hxguo@shao.ac.cn, E-mail: gumf@shao.ac.cn

We investigated the optical/ultraviolet (UV) color variations for a sample of 2169 quasars based on multi-epoch spectroscopy in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey data releases seven (DR7) and nine (DR9). To correct the systematic difference between DR7 and DR9 due to the different instrumental setup, we produced a correction spectrum by using a sample of F-stars observed in both DR7 and DR9. The correction spectrum was then applied to quasars when comparing the spectra of DR7 with DR9. In each object, the color variation was explored by comparing the spectral index of the continuum power-law fit on the brightest spectrummore » with the faintest one, and also by the shape of their difference spectrum. In 1876 quasars with consistent color variations from two methods, we found that most sources (1755, ∼94%) show the bluer-when-brighter (BWB) trend, and the redder-when-brighter (RWB) trend is detected in only 121 objects (∼6%). The common BWB trend is supported by the composite spectrum constructed from bright spectra, which is bluer than that from faint spectra, and also by the blue composite difference spectrum. The correction spectrum is proven to be highly reliable by comparing the composite spectrum from corrected DR9 and original DR7 spectra. Assuming that the optical/UV variability is triggered by fluctuations, the RWB trend can likely be explained if the fluctuations occur first in the outer disk region, and the inner disk region has not yet fully responded when the fluctuations are being propagated inward. In contrast, the common BWB trend implies that the fluctuations likely more often happen first in the inner disk region.« less

Rapid Decline in Carbon Monoxide Emissions and Export from East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, B.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Yin, Y.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, Q.; He, K.

2017-12-01

MOPITT satellite- and ground-based measurements both suggest of a widespread downward trend in CO concentrations over East Asia during the period 2005-2016. This negative trend is inconsistent with bottom-up inventories of CO emissions, which show a small increase or stable emissions in this region, except for the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC). We try to reconcile the observed CO trend with emission inventories using an inversion of the MOPITT CO data that provides emissions from primary sources, secondary CO production, and chemical sinks of CO. We find that the decreasing trend of -0.41% yr-1 for CO column concentrations over East Asia is mainly due to a -2.51% yr-1 decrease in emissions from primary sources over this region, or a cumulative decline of -32% from 2005 to 2016. This emission decrease is enough to counterbalance the effect of rising concentrations of CH4 in East Asia, that increase the secondary CO formation at a rate of 1.56% yr-1, according to our multispecies inversion. The reducing emissions are mainly contributed by China. The MEIC inventory is the only one to be consistent with the inversion-diagnosed regional decrease of CO emissions. According to this inventory, decreased CO emissions from four main sectors (iron and steel industries, residential sources, gasoline vehicles, and construction materials industries) in China explain 76% of the inversion-based trend of emissions from East Asia. This result suggests that global inventories underestimated the recent decrease of CO emission factors in China which occurred despite the increasing consumption of carbon-based fuels, and is driven by fast technological changes and emission control measures.

Temporal trends in organic carbon content in the main Swiss rivers, 1974-2010.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Murillo, J C; Zobrist, J; Filella, M

2015-01-01

Increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations have often been reported in rivers and lakes of the Northern Hemisphere over the last few decades. High-quality organic carbon (OC) concentration data have been used to study the change in DOC and total (TOC) organic carbon concentrations in the main rivers of Switzerland (Rhône, Rhine, Thur and Aar) between 1974 and 2010. These rivers are characterized by high discharge regimes (due to their Alpine origin) and by running in populated areas. Small long term trends (a general statistically significant decrease in TOC and a less clear increase in DOC concentrations), on the order of 1% of mean OC concentration per year, have been observed. An upward trend before 1999 reversed direction to a more marked downward trend from 1999 to 2010. Of the potential causes of OC temporal variation analysed (water temperature, dissolved reactive phosphorus and river discharge), only discharge explains a significant, albeit still small, part of TOC variability (8-31%), while accounting for barely 2.5% of DOC variability. Estimated anthropogenic TOC and DOC loads (treated sewage) to the rivers could account for a maximum of 4-20% of the temporal trends. Such low predictability is a good example of the limitations faced when studying causality and drivers behind small variations in complex systems. River export of OC from Switzerland has decreased significantly over the period. Since about 5.5% of estimated NEP of Switzerland is exported by the rivers, riverine OC fluxes should be taken into account in a detailed carbon budget of the country. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Musculoskeletal disorders as underlying cause of death in 58 countries, 1986-2011: trend analysis of WHO mortality database.

PubMed

Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A; Woolf, Anthony D; Englund, Martin

2017-02-02

Due to low mortality rate of musculoskeletal disorders (MSK) less attention has been paid to MSK as underlying cause of death in the general population. The aim was to examine trend in MSK as underlying cause of death in 58 countries across globe during 1986-2011. Data on mortality were collected from the WHO mortality database and population data were obtained from the United Nations. Annual sex-specific age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated by means of direct standardization using the WHO world standard population. We applied joinpoint regression analysis for trend analysis. Between-country disparities were examined using between-country variance and Gini coefficient. The changes in number of MSK deaths between 1986 and 2011 were decomposed using two counterfactual scenarios. The number of MSK deaths increased by 67% between 1986 and 2011 mainly due to population aging. The mean ASMR changed from 17.2 and 26.6 per million in 1986 to 18.1 and 25.1 in 2011 among men and women, respectively (median: 7.3% increase in men and 9.0% reduction in women). Declines in ASMR of 25% or more were observed for men (women) in 13 (19) countries, while corresponding increases were seen for men (women) in 25 (14) countries. In both sexes, ASMR declined during 1986-1997, then increased during 1997-2001 and again declined over 2001-2011. Despite decline over time, there were substantial between-country disparities in MSK mortality and its temporal trend. We found substantial variations in MSK mortality and its trends between countries, regions and also between sex and age groups. Promoted awareness and better management of MSK might partly explain reduction in MSK mortality, but variations across countries warrant further investigations.

Dynamic factor analysis of long-term growth trends of the intertidal seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Yi-Ming; Lin, Hsing-Juh

2010-01-01

We examined environmental factors which are most responsible for the 8-year temporal dynamics of the intertidal seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in southern Taiwan. A dynamic factor analysis (DFA), a dimension-reduction technique, was applied to identify common trends in a multivariate time series and the relationships between this series and interacting environmental variables. The results of dynamic factor models (DFMs) showed that the leaf growth rate of the seagrass was mainly influenced by salinity (Sal), tidal range (TR), turbidity ( K), and a common trend representing an unexplained variability in the observed time series. Sal was the primary variable that explained the temporal dynamics of the leaf growth rate compared to TR and K. K and TR had larger influences on the leaf growth rate in low- than in high-elevation beds. In addition to K, TR, and Sal, UV-B radiation (UV-B), sediment depth (SD), and a common trend accounted for long-term temporal variations of the above-ground biomass. Thus, K, TR, Sal, UV-B, and SD are the predominant environmental variables that described temporal growth variations of the intertidal seagrass T. hemprichii in southern Taiwan. In addition to environmental variables, human activities may be contributing to negative impacts on the seagrass beds; this human interference may have been responsible for the unexplained common trend in the DFMs. Due to successfully applying the DFA to analyze complicated ecological and environmental data in this study, important environmental variables and impacts of human activities along the coast should be taken into account when managing a coastal environment for the conservation of intertidal seagrass beds.

Observations and theories related to Antarctic ozone changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, D.; Watson, R. T.; Cox, Richard A.; Kolb, C.; Mahlman, J.; Mcelroy, M.; Plumb, A.; Ramanathan, V.; Schoeberl, M.; Solomon, S.

1989-01-01

In 1985, there was a report of a large, sudden, and unanticipated decrease in the abundance of springtime Antarctic ozone over the last decade. By 1987, ozone decreases of more than 50 percent in the total column, and 95 percent locally between 15 and 20 km, had been observed. The scientific community quickly rose to the challenge of explaining this remarkable discovery; theoreticians soon developed a series of chemical and dynamical hypotheses to explain the ozone loss. Three basic theories were proposed to explain the springtime ozone hole. (1) The ozone hole is caused by the increasing atmospheric loadings of manmade chemicals containing chlorine (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's) and bromine (halons)). These chemicals efficiently destroy ozone in the lower stratosphere in the Antarctic because of the special geophysical conditions, of an isolated air mass (polar vortex) with very cold temperatures, that exist there. (2) The circulation of the atmosphere in spring has changed from being predominantly downward over Antarctica to upward. This would mean that ozone poor air from the troposphere, instead of ozone rich air from the upper stratosphere, would be transported into the lower Antarctic stratosphere. (3) The abundance of the oxides of nitrogen in the lower Antarctic stratosphere is periodically enhanced by solar activity. Nitrogen oxides are produced in the upper mesosphere and thermosphere and then transported downward into the lower stratosphere in Antarctica, resulting in the chemical destruction of ozone. The climatology and trends of ozone, temperature, and polar stratospheric clouds are discussed. Also, the transport and chemical theories for the Antarctic ozone hole are presented.

Baryon Content in a Sample of 91 Galaxy Clusters Selected by the South Pole Telescope at 0.2 < z < 1.25

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiu, I.; et al.

2017-11-02

We estimate total mass (more » $$M_{500}$$), intracluster medium (ICM) mass ($$M_{\\mathrm{ICM}}$$) and stellar mass ($$M_{\\star}$$) in a Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (SZE) selected sample of 91 galaxy clusters with masses $$M_{500}\\gtrsim2.5\\times10^{14}M_{\\odot}$$ and redshift $0.2 < z < 1.25$ from the 2500 deg$^2$ South Pole Telescope SPT-SZ survey. The total masses $$M_{500}$$ are estimated from the SZE observable, the ICM masses $$M_{\\mathrm{ICM}}$$ are obtained from the analysis of $Chandra$ X-ray observations, and the stellar masses $$M_{\\star}$$ are derived by fitting spectral energy distribution templates to Dark Energy Survey (DES) $griz$ optical photometry and $WISE$ or $Spitzer$ near-infrared photometry. We study trends in the stellar mass, the ICM mass, the total baryonic mass and the cold baryonic fraction with cluster mass and redshift. We find significant departures from self-similarity in the mass scaling for all quantities, while the redshift trends are all statistically consistent with zero, indicating that the baryon content of clusters at fixed mass has changed remarkably little over the past $$\\approx9$$ Gyr. We compare our results to the mean baryon fraction (and the stellar mass fraction) in the field, finding that these values lie above (below) those in cluster virial regions in all but the most massive clusters at low redshift. Using a simple model of the matter assembly of clusters from infalling groups with lower masses and from infalling material from the low density environment or field surrounding the parent halos, we show that the measured mass trends without strong redshift trends in the stellar mass scaling relation could be explained by a mass and redshift dependent fractional contribution from field material. Similar analyses of the ICM and baryon mass scaling relations provide evidence for the so-called "missing baryons" outside cluster virial regions.« less

Baryon Content in a Sample of 91 Galaxy Clusters Selected by the South Pole Telescope at 0.2 < z < 1.25

DOE PAGES

Chiu, I.; Mohr, J. J.; McDonald, M.; ...

2018-05-16

Here, we estimate total mass (more » $$M_{500}$$), intracluster medium (ICM) mass ($$M_{\\mathrm{ICM}}$$) and stellar mass ($$M_{\\star}$$) in a Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (SZE) selected sample of 91 galaxy clusters with masses $$M_{500}\\gtrsim2.5\\times10^{14}M_{\\odot}$$ and redshift $0.2 < z < 1.25$ from the 2500 deg$^2$ South Pole Telescope SPT-SZ survey. The total masses $$M_{500}$$ are estimated from the SZE observable, the ICM masses $$M_{\\mathrm{ICM}}$$ are obtained from the analysis of $Chandra$ X-ray observations, and the stellar masses $$M_{\\star}$$ are derived by fitting spectral energy distribution templates to Dark Energy Survey (DES) $griz$ optical photometry and $WISE$ or $Spitzer$ near-infrared photometry. We study trends in the stellar mass, the ICM mass, the total baryonic mass and the cold baryonic fraction with cluster mass and redshift. We find significant departures from self-similarity in the mass scaling for all quantities, while the redshift trends are all statistically consistent with zero, indicating that the baryon content of clusters at fixed mass has changed remarkably little over the past $$\\approx9$$ Gyr. We compare our results to the mean baryon fraction (and the stellar mass fraction) in the field, finding that these values lie above (below) those in cluster virial regions in all but the most massive clusters at low redshift. Using a simple model of the matter assembly of clusters from infalling groups with lower masses and from infalling material from the low density environment or field surrounding the parent halos, we show that the measured mass trends without strong redshift trends in the stellar mass scaling relation could be explained by a mass and redshift dependent fractional contribution from field material. Similar analyses of the ICM and baryon mass scaling relations provide evidence for the so-called "missing baryons" outside cluster virial regions.« less

Baryon Content in a Sample of 91 Galaxy Clusters Selected by the South Pole Telescope at 0.2 < z < 1.25

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiu, I.; Mohr, J. J.; McDonald, M.

Here, we estimate total mass (more » $$M_{500}$$), intracluster medium (ICM) mass ($$M_{\\mathrm{ICM}}$$) and stellar mass ($$M_{\\star}$$) in a Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (SZE) selected sample of 91 galaxy clusters with masses $$M_{500}\\gtrsim2.5\\times10^{14}M_{\\odot}$$ and redshift $0.2 < z < 1.25$ from the 2500 deg$^2$ South Pole Telescope SPT-SZ survey. The total masses $$M_{500}$$ are estimated from the SZE observable, the ICM masses $$M_{\\mathrm{ICM}}$$ are obtained from the analysis of $Chandra$ X-ray observations, and the stellar masses $$M_{\\star}$$ are derived by fitting spectral energy distribution templates to Dark Energy Survey (DES) $griz$ optical photometry and $WISE$ or $Spitzer$ near-infrared photometry. We study trends in the stellar mass, the ICM mass, the total baryonic mass and the cold baryonic fraction with cluster mass and redshift. We find significant departures from self-similarity in the mass scaling for all quantities, while the redshift trends are all statistically consistent with zero, indicating that the baryon content of clusters at fixed mass has changed remarkably little over the past $$\\approx9$$ Gyr. We compare our results to the mean baryon fraction (and the stellar mass fraction) in the field, finding that these values lie above (below) those in cluster virial regions in all but the most massive clusters at low redshift. Using a simple model of the matter assembly of clusters from infalling groups with lower masses and from infalling material from the low density environment or field surrounding the parent halos, we show that the measured mass trends without strong redshift trends in the stellar mass scaling relation could be explained by a mass and redshift dependent fractional contribution from field material. Similar analyses of the ICM and baryon mass scaling relations provide evidence for the so-called "missing baryons" outside cluster virial regions.« less

Baryon Content in a Sample of 91 Galaxy Clusters Selected by the South Pole Telescope at 0.2 < z < 1.25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, I.; Mohr, J. J.; McDonald, M.; Bocquet, S.; Desai, S.; Klein, M.; Israel, H.; Ashby, M. L. N.; Stanford, A.; Benson, B. A.; Brodwin, M.; Abbott, T. M. C.; Abdalla, F. B.; Allam, S.; Annis, J.; Bayliss, M.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bertin, E.; Bleem, L.; Brooks, D.; Buckley-Geer, E.; Bulbul, E.; Capasso, R.; Carlstrom, J. E.; Rosell, A. Carnero; Carretero, J.; Castander, F. J.; Cunha, C. E.; D'Andrea, C. B.; da Costa, L. N.; Davis, C.; Diehl, H. T.; Dietrich, J. P.; Doel, P.; Drlica-Wagner, A.; Eifler, T. F.; Evrard, A. E.; Flaugher, B.; García-Bellido, J.; Garmire, G.; Gaztanaga, E.; Gerdes, D. W.; Gonzalez, A.; Gruen, D.; Gruendl, R. A.; Gschwend, J.; Gupta, N.; Gutierrez, G.; Hlavacek-L, J.; Honscheid, K.; James, D. J.; Jeltema, T.; Kraft, R.; Krause, E.; Kuehn, K.; Kuhlmann, S.; Kuropatkin, N.; Lahav, O.; Lima, M.; Maia, M. A. G.; Marshall, J. L.; Melchior, P.; Menanteau, F.; Miquel, R.; Murray, S.; Nord, B.; Ogando, R. L. C.; Plazas, A. A.; Rapetti, D.; Reichardt, C. L.; Romer, A. K.; Roodman, A.; Sanchez, E.; Saro, A.; Scarpine, V.; Schindler, R.; Schubnell, M.; Sharon, K.; Smith, R. C.; Smith, M.; Soares-Santos, M.; Sobreira, F.; Stalder, B.; Stern, C.; Strazzullo, V.; Suchyta, E.; Swanson, M. E. C.; Tarle, G.; Vikram, V.; Walker, A. R.; Weller, J.; Zhang, Y.

2018-05-01

We estimate total mass (M500), intracluster medium (ICM) mass (MICM) and stellar mass (M⋆) in a Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (SZE) selected sample of 91 galaxy clusters with masses M500 ≳ 2.5 × 1014M⊙ and redshift 0.2 < z < 1.25 from the 2500 ° ^2 South Pole Telescope SPT-SZ survey. The total masses M500 are estimated from the SZE observable, the ICM masses MICM are obtained from the analysis of Chandra X-ray observations, and the stellar masses M⋆ are derived by fitting spectral energy distribution templates to Dark Energy Survey (DES) griz optical photometry and WISE or Spitzer near-infrared photometry. We study trends in the stellar mass, the ICM mass, the total baryonic mass and the cold baryonic fraction with cluster halo mass and redshift. We find significant departures from self-similarity in the mass scaling for all quantities, while the redshift trends are all statistically consistent with zero, indicating that the baryon content of clusters at fixed mass has changed remarkably little over the past ≈9 Gyr. We compare our results to the mean baryon fraction (and the stellar mass fraction) in the field, finding that these values lie above (below) those in cluster virial regions in all but the most massive clusters at low redshift. Using a simple model of the matter assembly of clusters from infalling groups with lower masses and from infalling material from the low density environment or field surrounding the parent halos, we show that the measured mass trends without strong redshift trends in the stellar mass scaling relation could be explained by a mass and redshift dependent fractional contribution from field material. Similar analyses of the ICM and baryon mass scaling relations provide evidence for the so-called "missing baryons" outside cluster virial regions.

Population synchrony of a native fish across three Laurentian Great Lakes: Evaluating the effects of dispersal and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunnell, D.B.; Adams, J.V.; Gorman, O.T.; Madenjian, C.P.; Riley, S.C.; Roseman, E.F.; Schaeffer, J.S.

2010-01-01

Climate and dispersal are the two most commonly cited mechanisms to explain spatial synchrony among time series of animal populations, and climate is typically most important for fishes. Using data from 1978-2006, we quantified the spatial synchrony in recruitment and population catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) for bloater (Coregonus hoyi) populations across lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron. In this natural field experiment, climate was highly synchronous across lakes but the likelihood of dispersal between lakes differed. When data from all lakes were pooled, modified correlograms revealed spatial synchrony to occur up to 800 km for long-term (data not detrended) trends and up to 600 km for short-term (data detrended by the annual rate of change) trends. This large spatial synchrony more than doubles the scale previously observed in freshwater fish populations, and exceeds the scale found in most marine or estuarine populations. When analyzing the data separately for within- and between-lake pairs, spatial synchrony was always observed within lakes, up to 400 or 600 km. Conversely, between-lake synchrony did not occur among short-term trends, and for long-term trends, the scale of synchrony was highly variable. For recruit CPUE, synchrony occurred up to 600 km between both lakes Michigan and Huron (where dispersal was most likely) and lakes Michigan and Superior (where dispersal was least likely), but failed to occur between lakes Huron and Superior (where dispersal likelihood was intermediate). When considering the scale of putative bloater dispersal and genetic information from previous studies, we concluded that dispersal was likely underlying within-lake synchrony but climate was more likely underlying between-lake synchrony. The broad scale of synchrony in Great Lakes bloater populations increases their probability of extirpation, a timely message for fishery managers given current low levels of bloater abundance. ?? Springer-Verlag 2009.

Widespread land surface wind decline in the Northern Hemisphere partly attributed to land surface changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thepaut, J.; Vautard, R.; Cattiaux, J.; Yiou, P.; Ciais, P.

2010-12-01

The decline of surface wind observed in many regions of the world is a potential source of concern for wind power electricity generation. It is also suggested as the main cause of decreasing pan evaporation. In China, a persistent and significant decrease of monsoon winds was observed in all seasons. Surface wind declines were also evidenced in several regions of the world (U.S., Australia, several European countries). Except over China, no clear explanation was given for the wind decrease in the regions studied. Whether surface winds decrease is due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation or its variability, in surface processes or to observational trends has therefore not been elucidated. The identification of the drivers of such a decline requires a global investigation of available surface and upper-air wind data, which has not been conducted so far. Here we use global datasets of in-situ wind measurements that contain surface weather stations wind data (hourly or three-hourly data acquisition time step) and rawinsonde vertical wind data profiles (monthly time step) prepared by the NCAR. A set of 822 worldwide surface stations with continuous wind records was selected after a careful elimination of stations with obvious breaks and large gaps. This dataset mostly covers the Northern mid latitudes over the period 1979-2008. Using this data set, we found that annual mean wind speeds have declined at 73% of the surface stations over the past 30 years. In the Northern Hemisphere, positive wind trends are found only in a few places. In Europe, Central Asia, Eastern Asia and in North America the annual mean surface wind speed has decreased on average at a rate of -2.9, -5.9, -4.2, and -1.8 %/decade respectively, i.e. a decrease of about 10% in 30 years and up to about 20% in Central Asia. These results are robust to changes in the station selection method and parameters. By contrast, upper-air winds observed from rawinsondes, geostrophic winds deduced from pressure gradients, and modeled winds from weather re-analyses do not exhibit any comparable stilling trends than at surface stations. For instance, large-scale circulation changes captured in the most recent European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast re-analysis (ERA-interim) can only explain only up to 10-50% of the wind stilling, depending on the region. In addition, a significant amount of the slow-down could originate from a generalized increase in surface roughness, due for instance to forest growth and expansion, and urbanization. This hypothesis, which could explain up to 60% of the decline, is supported by remote sensing observations and theoretical calculations combined with meso-scale model simulations. For future wind power energy resource, the part of wind decline due to land cover changes is easier to cope with than that due to global atmospheric circulation slow down.

Scheduling for Locality in Shared-Memory Multiprocessors

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-05-01

Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree ’)iIC Q(JALfryT INSPECTED 5 DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY I Accesion For Supervised by NTIS CRAM... architecture on parallel program performance, explain the implications of this trend on popular parallel programming models, and propose system software to 0...decomoosition and scheduling algorithms. I. SUIUECT TERMS IS. NUMBER OF PAGES shared-memory multiprocessors; architecture trends; loop 110 scheduling

Explaining Changes in the Patterns of Black Suicide in the United States from 1981 to 2002: An Age, Cohort, and Period Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joe, Sean

2006-01-01

To explore the different trends of suicide incidence among Blacks and possible contributing factors, the current study compared national epidemiologic data of suicide in the United States from 1981 to 2002. For the first time, period and birth-cohort effects on the incidence trends of Black suicide were evaluated using an age-period-cohort…

Amphibole Fractional Crystallization and Delamination in Arc Roots: Implications for the `Missing' Nb Reservoir in the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galster, F.; Chatterjee, R. N.; Stockli, D. F.

2017-12-01

Most geologic processes should not fractionate Nb from Ta but Earth's major silicate reservoirs have subchondritic Nb/Ta values. Nb/Ta of >10000 basalts and basaltic andesites from different tectonic settings (GEOROC) cluster around 16, indistinguishable from upper mantle values. In contrast, Nb/Ta in more evolved arc volcanics have progressively lower values, reaching continental crust estimates, and correlate negatively with SiO2 (see figure) and positively with TiO2 and MgO. This global trend suggests that differentiation processes in magmatic arcs could explain bulk crustal Nb/Ta estimates. Understanding processes that govern fractionation of Nb from Ta in arcs can provide key insights on continental crust formation and help identify Earth's `missing' Nb reservoir. Ti-rich phases (rutile, titanite and ilmenite) have DNb/DTa <1, and therefore, their fractionation from mafic to intermediate liquids cannot explain the observed trend. Instead, fractionation of biotite and amphibole could lower Nb/Ta values in the evolved liquid. Lack of correlation between Nb/Ta and K2O in global volcanic rocks implies that biotite plays a minor role in fractionating Nb from Ta during differentiation. Experimental petrology and evidence from exposed arc sections indicate that amphibole fractionation and delamination of island arc roots can explain the andesitic composition of bulk continental crust. Experimental studies have shown that amphibole Mg# correlate with DNb/DTa and amphibole could effectively fractionate Nb from Ta. Preliminary data from lower to middle crustal amphiboles from preserved arcs show sub- to super-chondritic Nb/Ta up to >60. This suggests that delamination of amphibole-rich cumulates can be a viable mechanism for the preferential removal of Nb from the continental crust. Future examination of Nb/Ta ratios in lower crustal amphiboles from various preserved arcs will provide improved constraints on the Nb-Ta paradox of the silicate Earth.

Trends in risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Koopman, C; Vaartjes, I; Blokstra, A; Verschuren, W M M; Visser, M; Deeg, D J H; Bots, M L; van Dis, I

2016-08-19

Favourable trends in risk factor levels in the general population may partly explain the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to present long-term national trends in established risk factors for CHD. Data were obtained from five data sources including several large scale population based surveys, cohort studies and general practitioner registers between 1988 and 2012. We applied linear regression models to age-standardized time trends to test for statistical significant trends. Analyses were stratified by sex and age (younger <65 and older ≥65 years adults). The results demonstrated favourable trends in smoking (except in older women) and physical activity (except in older men). Unfavourable trends were found for body mass index (BMI) and diabetes mellitus prevalence. Although systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol trends were favourable for older persons, SBP and total cholesterol remained stable in younger persons. Four out of six risk factors for CHD showed a favourable or stable trend. The rise in diabetes mellitus and BMI is worrying with respect to CHD morbidity and mortality.

Higher Protein Intake Is Associated with Higher Lean Mass and Quadriceps Muscle Strength in Adult Men and Women.

PubMed

Sahni, Shivani; Mangano, Kelsey M; Hannan, Marian T; Kiel, Douglas P; McLean, Robert R

2015-07-01

The impact of dietary protein intake on lower extremity lean mass and strength in community-dwelling adult Americans is not fully understood. The objective was to determine the associations between total protein (TP), animal protein (AP), and plant protein (PP) intakes and lean mass of the legs and quadriceps muscle strength. We further examined whether the associations with quadriceps strength may be explained by lean mass of the legs. This cross-sectional study included men (n = 1166) and women (n = 1509) from the Framingham Offspring Cohort in Massachusetts. Protein intake in grams per day was measured in either 1995-1998 or 1998-2001. Leg lean mass and isometric quadriceps strength, both in kilograms, were measured in 1996-2001. Multilinear regression models estimated adjusted least squares means of each of the muscle measures by quartile categories of protein intake, adjusting for relevant confounders and covariates. Mean age was 59 ± 9 y (range: 29-86 y) and TP intake was 80 ± 27 g/d in men and 76 ± 26 g/d in women. In men and women, leg lean mass was higher in participants in the highest quartiles of TP and AP intake compared with those in the lowest quartiles of intake [least squares means (kg): TP-17.6 vs. 17.1 in men, P-trend: 0.005, and 11.7 vs. 11.4 in women, P-trend: 0.006; AP-17.6 vs. 17.1 in men, P-trend: 0.002, and 11.7 vs. 11.4 in women, P-trend: 0.003]. PP intake was not associated with lean mass in either sex. In men and women, quadriceps strength was higher in participants in the highest quartile of PP intake compared with those in the lowest quartile [least squares means (kg): 22.9 vs. 21.7 in men, P-trend: 0.01, and 19.0 vs. 18.2 in women, P-trend: 0.01]; this association was no longer significant after adjustment for fruit and vegetable intake (P-trend: 0.06 in men and 0.10 in women). Although no significant association was observed for AP intake in either sex, nonsignificant protective trends were observed for TP intake (P-trend: 0.08 in men and 0.10 in women). Our findings suggest that maintaining adequate protein intake with age may help preserve muscle mass and strength in adult men and women. Dietary protein types may differentially affect muscle mass and strength. Whether PP is a marker of dietary quality or has a direct effect on muscle strength (independent of lean mass) needs to be further clarified. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Helium-isotope systematics at Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia: implications for the volcanic hydrothermal system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sano, Yuji; Wakita, Hiroshi; Williams, Stanley N.

1990-07-01

We have collected 14 water and gas samples from 9 thermal springs and gas vents near Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia. The 3He/ 4He and 4He/ 20Ne ratios vary significantly from 0.98 Ratm (where Ratm is the atmospheric 3He/ 4He ratio of 1.4 × 10 -6) to 6.30 Ratm, and from 0.37 to 7.0, respectively. The 3He/ 4He ratio (corrected for air contamination) decreases with increasing distance from the central crater of the volcano to the sampling site. The trend is very similar to that observed at Ontake volcano, Japan. A hydrodynamic porous-media dispersion model can explain the 3He/ 4He trend. The temporal variations in the 3He/ 4He ratio at four sites provide useful information on the apparent velocity of the magmatic fluid flow brought on by a volcanic eruption. The estimated value of several tens m day -1 agrees well with the inferred velocity of flow in Oshima volcano, Japan and is comparable to the largest rate of groundwater movement in a deep sedimentary basin.

Secular trends in new childhood epidemics: insights from evolutionary medicine.

PubMed

Brüne, Martin; Hochberg, Ze'ev

2013-10-21

In the last few decades, pediatric medicine has observed a dramatic increase in the prevalence of hitherto rare illnesses, among which obesity, diabetes, allergies and other autoimmune diseases stand out. In addition, secular trends towards earlier onset of puberty and sexual activity contribute to the psychological problems of youth and adolescents. All this has occurred in spite of the improved health care provision for children, yet traditional concepts of medicine have failed to explain these new "epidemics". A recent conference and science school of the European Society of Paediatric Endocrinology (ESPE) in Acre, Israel, has taken up this challenge. Experts across disciplines including medicine, anthropology and developmental psychology discussed potential causes of childhood ill-health from an evolutionary point-of-view. Seen from an evolutionary vantage point, the "epidemics" of childhood obesity, diabetes and psychological dysfunction appear, in part, to be related to a mismatch between ancestral adaptations and novel environmental contingencies. These include changing exposures to pathogens, which impact on the function of the immune system, as well as changing patterns of parenting, which influence the timing of puberty and the risk for developing psychopathology.

Atmospheric evidence for a global secular increase in isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeling, R. F.; Graven, H. D.; Welp, L.; Piper, S. C.; Bollenbacher, A.; Resplandy, L.; Meijer, H. A. J.

2016-12-01

A decrease in the 13C/12C ratio of atmospheric CO2 owing to the addition of fossil-fuel derived CO2, known as the 13C-Suess effect, has been documented by direct observations since 1977 and from ice-core measurements since the industrial revolution. Measurements of this decrease have previously been used to constrain land and ocean carbon sinks. Here we show, however, that no plausible combination of land and ocean sinks can explain the 13C/12C decrease unless an increase has occurred in the isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis, i.e. the tendency of land plants to preferentially assimilate 12CO2 compared to 13CO2. A trend toward greater discrimination at higher CO2 levels is broadly consistent with geological evidence for the response of C3 plants at times of altered atmospheric CO2 as well as with tree-ring studies over the past century. The discrimination trend will be discussed in the context of theories for optimal stomatal behavior under changing atmospheric CO2.

On the unification of dwarf and giant elliptical galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Alister W.; Guzman, Rafael

2004-01-01

The near orthogonal distributions of dwarf elliptical (dE) and giant elliptical (E) galaxies in the mue-M and mue-log(Re) diagrams have been interpreted as evidence for two distinct galaxy formation processes. However, continuous, linear relationships across the alleged dE/E boundary at MB = -18 mag - such as the relationships between central surface brightness (mu0) and: a) galaxy magnitude (M); and b) light-profile shape (n) --- suggest a similar initial formation mechanism. Here we explain how these latter two trends in fact necessitate a different behavior for dE and E galaxies, exactly as observed, in diagrams involving mue (and also e). Together with other linear trends across the alleged dE/E boundary, such as those between luminosity and color, metallicity, and velocity dispersion, it appears that the dEs form a continuous extension to the E galaxies. The presence of partially depleted cores in luminous (MB < -20.5 mag) Es does however signify the action of a different physical process at the centers (< ~300 pc) of these galaxies.

Deformation behavior of micro-indentation defects under uniaxial and biaxial loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Zhichao; Zhao, Hongwei; Lu, Shuai; Li, Hailian; Liu, Changyi; Liu, Xianhua

2015-09-01

The microdefects of structure frequently act as the source to generate initial cracks and lead to the fracture failure. Study on the deformation behaviors of embedded defects would be conducive to better understand the failure mechanisms of structural materials. Micro-indentation technique was applied to prepare the initial indentations as embedded surface defects at the gauge length section and central section of a cross-shaped AZ31B magnesium alloy specimen. A novel in situ biaxial tensile device was developed to apply the synchronous biaxial loads. Via the observation by an optical microscope with three-dimensional imaging and measurement functions, the changing laws of the indentation topographies under uniaxial and biaxial tensile loads were discussed. Compared with the gauge length section, the increasing trend of the indentation length of the central section was relatively flat, and the decreasing trend of the indentation depth was more significant. The changes of indentation topographies were explained by the Poisson effect, and the significant plastic tensile stress has led to the releasing of the residual stress around the indentation location and also promoted the planarization of the pileup.

Deformation behavior of micro-indentation defects under uniaxial and biaxial loads.

PubMed

Ma, Zhichao; Zhao, Hongwei; Lu, Shuai; Li, Hailian; Liu, Changyi; Liu, Xianhua

2015-09-01

The microdefects of structure frequently act as the source to generate initial cracks and lead to the fracture failure. Study on the deformation behaviors of embedded defects would be conducive to better understand the failure mechanisms of structural materials. Micro-indentation technique was applied to prepare the initial indentations as embedded surface defects at the gauge length section and central section of a cross-shaped AZ31B magnesium alloy specimen. A novel in situ biaxial tensile device was developed to apply the synchronous biaxial loads. Via the observation by an optical microscope with three-dimensional imaging and measurement functions, the changing laws of the indentation topographies under uniaxial and biaxial tensile loads were discussed. Compared with the gauge length section, the increasing trend of the indentation length of the central section was relatively flat, and the decreasing trend of the indentation depth was more significant. The changes of indentation topographies were explained by the Poisson effect, and the significant plastic tensile stress has led to the releasing of the residual stress around the indentation location and also promoted the planarization of the pileup.

A network of discrete events for the representation and analysis of diffusion dynamics.

PubMed

Pintus, Alberto M; Pazzona, Federico G; Demontis, Pierfranco; Suffritti, Giuseppe B

2015-11-14

We developed a coarse-grained description of the phenomenology of diffusive processes, in terms of a space of discrete events and its representation as a network. Once a proper classification of the discrete events underlying the diffusive process is carried out, their transition matrix is calculated on the basis of molecular dynamics data. This matrix can be represented as a directed, weighted network where nodes represent discrete events, and the weight of edges is given by the probability that one follows the other. The structure of this network reflects dynamical properties of the process of interest in such features as its modularity and the entropy rate of nodes. As an example of the applicability of this conceptual framework, we discuss here the physics of diffusion of small non-polar molecules in a microporous material, in terms of the structure of the corresponding network of events, and explain on this basis the diffusivity trends observed. A quantitative account of these trends is obtained by considering the contribution of the various events to the displacement autocorrelation function.

Trends in selected streamflow and stream-channel characteristics for the Chagrin River at Willoughby, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Kunze, Allison E.

2002-01-01

Monotonic upward trends in annual mean streamflows and annual 7-day low flows were identified statistically for the streamflow-gaging station on the Chagrin River at Willoughby, Ohio. No monotonic trends were identified for the annual peak streamflow series or partial-duration series of peak streamflows augmented with annual peak streamflows that did not exceed a base discharge of 4,000 cubic feet per second. A plot of cumulative departure of annual precipitation from the long-term mean annual precipitation for the weather-observation station at Hiram, Ohio, indicates a relatively dry period extending from about 1910 to about 1968, followed by a relatively wet period extending from about 1968 to the late 1990s. A plot of cumulative departure of annual mean streamflow from the mean annual streamflow for the Chagrin River at Willoughby, Ohio, closely mimics the shape of the precipitation departure plot, indicating that the annual mean streamflows increased in concert with annual precipitation. These synchronous trends likely explain why upward trends in annual mean streamflows and annual 7-day low flows were observed. A lack of trend in peak streamflows indicates that the intensity and severity of flood-producing storms did not increase appreciably along with the increases in annual precipitation. An analysis of point-of-zero-flow data indicates that the low-water control of the Chagrin River streamflow-gaging station tended to aggrade over the period 1930?93; however, the magnitude of aggradation is sufficiently small that its effect on stages of moderate to large floods would be negligible. Stage values associated with reference streamflows of 500 and 5,000 cubic feet per second tended to remain fairly stable during the period from about 1950 to 1970 and then decreased slightly during the period from about 1970 to 1980, suggesting that the flood-carrying capacity of the stream increased somewhat during the latter period. Since a large flood on May 26, 1989, significant changes have occurred in the relation between stage and streamflow. The most recent relation indicates that stage values associated with streamflows of 500 and 5,000 cubic feet per second are about 0.5 foot and 0.1 foot higher, respectively, than the pre-1989 levels.

Monotonic trends in spatio-temporal distribution and concentration of monsoon precipitation (1901-2002), West Bengal, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, Soumendu; Khan, Ansar; Akbari, Hashem; Wang, Yupeng

2016-12-01

This paper intended to investigate spatio-temporal monotonic trend and shift in concentration of monsoon precipitation across West Bengal, India, by analysing the time series of monthly precipitation from 18 weather stations during the period from 1901 to 2002. In dealing with, the inhomogeneity in the precipitation series, RHtestsV4 software package is used to detect, and adjust for, multiple change points (shifts) that could exist in data series. Finally, the cumulative deviation test was applied at 5% significant level to check the homogeneity (presence of historic changes by cumulative deviations test). Afterward, non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Theil-Sen estimator (TSE) was applied to detect of nature and slope of trends; and, Sequential Mann Kendall (SQMK) test was applied for detection of turning point and magnitude of change in trends. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation in precipitation data series. Four indices- precipitation concentration index (PCI), precipitation concentration degree (PCD), precipitation concentration period (PCP) and fulcrum (centre of gravity) were used to detect precipitation concentration and the spatial pattern in it. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide monotonic trend for monsoon precipitation time series. Regional cluster analysis by SQMK found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general, except during the non- monsoon seasons. The results show that higher PCI values were mainly observed in South Bengal, whereas lower PCI values were mostly detected in North Bengal. The PCI values are noticeably larger in places where both monsoon total precipitation and span of rainy season are lower. The results of PCP reveal that precipitation in Gangetic Bengal mostly occurs in summer (monsoon season), and the rainy season arrives earlier in North Bengal than South Bengal, whereas the results of PCD also indicate that the precipitation in North Bengal was more dispersed within a year than that in South Bengal. The concentration characteristic of precipitation could be detected by fulcrum analysis, and significant concentration over most of West Bengal was obvious within July month band. Precipitation trend observed in West Bengal is compared with that in Central India (CI) region and comparison of precipitation departure with Indian monsoon and Gangetic Bengal can be explained by forecasting ensemble.

Analysis of CO, CH4 and AOD distributions over Eurasia and estimates of their long-term tendencies based on spectroscopic ground-based and satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakitin, Vadim; Elansky, Nikolai; Shtabkin, Yury; Dzhola, Anatoly; Pankratova, Natalia; Shilkin, Arseny

2017-04-01

Analysis of the CO and CH4 total column (TC) measurements and AOD data in urban and background regions of Eurasia for period from 1998 to 2016 years is presented. The trends estimates based on spectroscopic ground-based datasets of OIAP, SPSU, IAP CAC, NPO "Typhoon" and NDACC were compared with similar ones obtained with use of orbital data (MOPITT v6J and AIRS v6). Total decrease of CO TC in both urban (Moscow and Beijing) and background regions (ZSS, Peterhof, Obninsk, European NDACC sites) in 1998-2016 years changed to increase of CO in summer and autumn months in almost all background regions of Northern Eurasia after 2007. Negative trends of AOD were obtained for Europe, West Siberia and China for different seasons (including summer and autumn months) for time periods 2000-2016 and 2007-2016 with using both AERONET and MODIS Terra/Aqua datasets; AOD trends over East Siberia were positive that dui to influence of strong wild fires in 2010-2016 years in Siberia. Rate of CO TC decrease obtained with orbital data using are less than the same for ground based data with factor 1.5-2.0 for both urban and background regions. Rate of CH4 TC increased after 2007 in North-West Eurasian regions and didn't change in most of North-East regions. The negative AOD trends over Europe and West Siberia indirectly point to non-increase of wild-fires emissions over this region in latest years. Therefore the positive CO TC trends cannot be explained only by increase of wild-fires impact and anthropogenic emissions; possible reasons of such CO tendencies could be the changes in all atmospheric photochemistry system. This work was supported by the Russian Scientific Foundation under grant №14-47-00049 (in part of NDACC, AERONET and satellite trends estimates), under grant №16-17-10275 (in part of analysis of ground-based observations over Moscow and Obninsk) and partially by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant № 16-05-00287 in part of provide of ground-based spectroscopic measurements in Moscow and Beijing sites).

Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kürbis, K.; Mudelsee, M.; Tetzlaff, G.; Brázdil, R.

2009-09-01

For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague-Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.

Early Mathematics Achievement Trajectories: English-Language Learner and Native English-Speaker Estimates, Using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey

PubMed Central

Roberts, Greg; Bryant, Diane

2012-01-01

This study used data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey, Kindergarten Class of 1998 –1999, to (a) estimate mathematics achievement trends through 5th grade in the population of students who are English-language proficient by the end of kindergarten, (b) compare trends across primary language groups within this English-language proficient group, (c) evaluate the effect of low socioeconomic status (SES) for English-language proficient students and within different primary language groups, and (d) estimate language-group trends in specific mathematics skill areas. The group of English-language proficient English-language learners (ELLs) was disaggregated into native Spanish speakers and native speakers of Asian languages, the 2 most prevalent groups of ELLs in the United States. Results of multilevel latent variable growth modeling suggest that primary language may be less salient than SES in explaining the mathematics achievement of English-language proficient ELLs. The study also found that mathematics-related school readiness is a key factor in explaining subsequent achievement differences and that the readiness gap is prevalent across the range of mathematics-related skills. PMID:21574702

Assessing wave climate trends in the Bay of Biscay through an intercomparison of wave hindcasts and reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paris, F.; Lecacheux, S.; Idier, D.; Charles, E.

2014-09-01

The Bay of Biscay, located in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, is exposed to energetic waves coming from the open ocean that have crucial effects on the coast. Knowledge of the wave climate and trends in this region are critical to better understand the last decade's evolution of coastal hazards and morphology and to anticipate their potential future changes. This study aims to characterize the long-term trends of the present wave climate over the second half of the twentieth century in the Bay of Biscay through a robust and homogeneous intercomparison of five-wave datasets (Corrected ERA-40 (C-ERA-40), ECMWF Reanalysis Interim (ERA-Interim), Bay Of Biscay Wave Atlas (BOBWA-10kH), ANEMOC, and Bertin and Dodet 2010)). The comparison of the quality of the datasets against offshore and nearshore measurements reveals that at offshore locations, global reanalyses slightly underestimate wave heights, while regional hindcasts overestimate wave heights, especially for the highest quantiles. At coastal locations, BOBWA-10kH is the dataset that compares the best with observations. Concerning long time-scale features, the comparison highlights that the main significant trends are similarly present in the five datasets, especially during summer for which there is an increase of significant wave heights and mean wave periods (up to +15 cm and +0.6 s over the period 1970-2001) as well as a southerly shift of wave directions (around -0.4° year-1). Over the same period, an increase of high quantiles of wave heights during the autumn season (around 3 cm year-1 for 90th quantile of significant wave heights (SWH90)) is also apparent. During winter, significant trends are much lower than during summer and autumn despite a slight increase of wave heights and periods during 1958-2001. These trends can be related to modifications in the wave-type occurrence. Finally, the trends common to the five datasets are discussed by analyzing the similarities with centennial trends issued from longer time-scale studies and exploring the various factors that could explain them.

Fracture Mechanics Approach to Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, C.; Sammonds, P.; Kilburn, C.; Woo, G.

2008-12-01

A medium to short-term increase in the rate of volcano-tectonic earthquake events provides one of the most useful and promising tools for eruption forecasting, particularly at subduction-zone volcanoes reawakening after a long repose interval. Two basic patterns of accelerating seismicity observed prior to eruptions are exponential and faster than exponential increases with time. While theoretical and empirical models exist that can explain these observed trends, less is known about seismic unrest at volcanoes that does not end in eruption. A comprehensive model of fracturing and failure within an edifice must also explain why volcanoes do not erupt. We have developed a numerical fracture mechanical model for simulating precursory seismic sequences, associated with the opening of a new magmatic pathway to the surface. The model reproduces the basic patterns of precursory seismicity and shows that the signals produced vary according to changes in the extent of damage and in the mechanical properties of the host rock. Local stress conditions and material property distributions exist under which the model is also able to produce seismic swarms that do not lead to failure and eruption. It can therefore provide insight into factors determining whether or not a seismic crisis leads to eruption. Critically, when combined with field data this may provide information on how often 'failed' eruptions can be expected, or suggest a step towards an observational method for distinguishing between a seismic swarm leading to quiescence and a pre-eruptive seismic sequence.

Characterization of acid-base properties of two gibbsite samples in the context of literature results.

PubMed

Adekola, F; Fédoroff, M; Geckeis, H; Kupcik, T; Lefèvre, G; Lützenkirchen, J; Plaschke, M; Preocanin, T; Rabung, T; Schild, D

2011-02-01

Two different gibbsites, one commercial and one synthesized according to a frequently applied recipe, were studied in an interlaboratory attempt to gain insight into the origin of widely differing reports on gibbsite acid-base surface properties. In addition to a thorough characterization of the two solids, several methods relevant to the interfacial charging were applied to the two samples: potentiometric titrations to obtain the "apparent" proton related surface charge density, zeta-potential measurements characterizing the potential at the plane of shear, and Attenuated Total Reflection Infrared Spectroscopy (ATR-IR) to obtain information on the variation of counter-ion adsorption with pH (using nitrate as a probe). Values of the IEP at 9-10 and 11.2-11.3 were found for the commercial and synthesized sample, respectively. The experimental observations revealed huge differences in the charging behavior between the two samples. Such differences also appeared in the titration kinetics. A detailed literature review revealed similar disparity with no apparent systematic trend. While previously the waiting time between additions had been advocated to explain such differences among synthesized samples, our results do not support such a conclusion. Instead, we find that the amount of titrant added in each aliquot appears to have a significant influence on the titration curves. While we can relate a number of observations to others, a number of open questions and contradictions remain. We suggest various processes, which can explain the observed behavior. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

PANCHROMATIC HUBBLE ANDROMEDA TREASURY. XVI. STAR CLUSTER FORMATION EFFICIENCY AND THE CLUSTERED FRACTION OF YOUNG STARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, L. Clifton; Sandstrom, Karin; Seth, Anil C.

We use the Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury survey data set to perform spatially resolved measurements of star cluster formation efficiency (Γ), the fraction of stellar mass formed in long-lived star clusters. We use robust star formation history and cluster parameter constraints, obtained through color–magnitude diagram analysis of resolved stellar populations, to study Andromeda’s cluster and field populations over the last ∼300 Myr. We measure Γ of 4%–8% for young, 10–100 Myr-old populations in M31. We find that cluster formation efficiency varies systematically across the M31 disk, consistent with variations in mid-plane pressure. These Γ measurements expand the range of well-studiedmore » galactic environments, providing precise constraints in an H i-dominated, low-intensity star formation environment. Spatially resolved results from M31 are broadly consistent with previous trends observed on galaxy-integrated scales, where Γ increases with increasing star formation rate surface density (Σ{sub SFR}). However, we can explain observed scatter in the relation and attain better agreement between observations and theoretical models if we account for environmental variations in gas depletion time ( τ {sub dep}) when modeling Γ, accounting for the qualitative shift in star formation behavior when transitioning from a H{sub 2}-dominated to a H i-dominated interstellar medium. We also demonstrate that Γ measurements in high Σ{sub SFR} starburst systems are well-explained by τ {sub dep}-dependent fiducial Γ models.« less

Anomalously low amplitude of S waves produced by the 3D structures in the lower mantle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

To, Akiko; Capdeville, Yann; Romanowicz, Barbara

2016-07-01

Direct S and Sdiff phases with anomalously low amplitudes are recorded for the earthquakes in Papua New Guinea by seismographs in northern America. According to the prediction by a standard 1D model, the amplitudes are the lowest at stations in southern California, at a distance and azimuth of around 95° and 55°, respectively, from the earthquake. The amplitude anomaly is more prominent at frequencies higher than 0.03 Hz. We checked and ruled out the possibility of the anomalies appearing because of the errors in the focal mechanism used in the reference synthetic waveform calculations. The observed anomaly distribution changes drastically with a relatively small shift in the location of the earthquake. The observations indicate that the amplitude reduction is likely due to the 3D shear velocity (Vs) structure, which deflects the wave energy away from the original ray paths. Moreover, some previous studies suggested that some of the S and Sdiff phases in our dataset are followed by a prominent postcursor and show a large travel time delay, which was explained by placing a large ultra-low velocity zone (ULVZ) located on the core-mantle boundary southwest of Hawaii. In this study, we evaluated the extent of amplitude anomalies that can be explained by the lower mantle structures in the existing models, including the previously proposed ULVZ. In addition, we modified and tested some models and searched for the possible causes of low amplitudes. Full 3D synthetic waveforms were calculated and compared with the observations. Our results show that while the existing models explain the trends of the observed amplitude anomalies, the size of such anomalies remain under-predicted especially at large distances. Adding a low velocity zone, which is spatially larger and has less Vs reduction than ULVZ, on the southwest side of ULVZ, contributes to explain the low amplitudes observed at distances larger than 100° from the earthquake. The newly proposed low velocity zone mostly overlaps with the northern part of the Pacific large low shear velocity province (LLSVP) revealed in tomographic models. Although the very low amplitudes observed at a distance of about 95° remain unexplained, our results indicate that the boundary of the Pacific LLSVP is sharp, and the amplitude of S waves at these large distances is lowered by strong vertical and/or lateral deflection at the boundary toward the interior of the low velocity province.

Uptake of alkaline earth metals in Alcyonarian spicules (Octocorallia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taubner, I.; Böhm, F.; Eisenhauer, A.; Garbe-Schönberg, D.; Erez, J.

2012-05-01

Alcyonarian corals (Octocorallia) living in shallow tropical seas produce spicules of high-Mg calcite with ˜13 mol% MgCO3. We cultured the tropical alcyonarian coral Rhythisma fulvum in experiments varying temperature (19-32 °C) and pH (8.15-8.44). Alkalinity depletion caused by spicule formation systematically varied in the temperature experiments increasing from 19 to 29 °C. Spicules were investigated for their elemental ratios (Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca) using ICP-OES, δ44/40Ca using TIMS, as well as δ18O and δ13C by IRMS. Mg/Ca increased with temperature from 146 to 164 mmol/mol, in good agreement with the range observed for marine inorganic calcite. Mg/Ca increased by 1.0 ± 0.4 mmol/mol/°C, similar to the sensitivity of Miliolid foraminifera. The pH experiments revealed a linear relationship between Mg/Ca and carbonate ion concentration of +0.03 ± 0.02 mmol/mol/μMol. Sr/Ca ranges from 2.5 to 2.9 mmol/mol being in good agreement with other high-Mg calcites. Temperature and pH experiments showed linear dependencies of Sr/Ca matching inorganic calcite trends and pointing to a decoupling of crystal precipitation rate and calcification rate. Ca isotopes range between 0.7‰ and 0.9‰ in good agreement with aragonitic scleractinian corals and calcitic coccoliths. Presumably Ca isotopes are fractionated by a biological mechanism that may be independent of the skeletal mineralogy. We observe no temperature trend, but a significant decrease of δ44/40Ca with increasing pH. This inverse correlation may characterise biologically controlled intracellular calcification. Oxygen isotope ratios are higher than expected for isotopic equilibrium with a temperature sensitivity of -0.15 ± 0.03‰/°C. Carbon isotope ratios are significantly lower than expected for equilibrium and positively correlated with temperature with a slope of 0.20 ± 0.04‰/°C. Many of our observations on trace element incorporation in R. fulvum may be explained by inorganic processes during crystal formation, which do not comply with the intracellular mode of calcification in Alcyonarian corals. The observed elemental and isotopic compositions, however, could be explained if the partitioning caused by biological mechanisms mimics the effects of inorganic processes.

French Polynesia Hotspot Swells Explained By Dynamic Topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adam, C.; Yoshida, M.; Isse, T.; Suetsugu, D.; Shiobara, H.; Sugioka, H.; Kanazawa, T.; Fukao, Y.; Barruol, G.

2007-12-01

Situated on the South Pacific Superswell, French Polynesia is a region characterized by numerous geophysical anomalies among which a high volcanism concentration. Seven hotspots are required to explain the observed chains, volcanism ages and geochemical trends. Many open questions still remain on the origin of these hotspot chains: are they created by passive uplift of magma due to discontinuities in the structure of the lithosphere or by the ascent of mantle plumes? In this case, at which depth do these plumes initiate in the mantle? Many geophysical observations (bathymetry, gravity, magnetism, volcanism ages..) are used to understand the unique phenomenon occurring on this region. The most useful information may come from tomography models since they provide a 3D view of the mantle. Until recently, the tomography models over the region were quite inaccurate because of the sparse location of the seismic stations. The deployment of two new seismic stations networks (BBOBS and temporary island stations) has lately remedied this failing. The resulting tomography model obtained through the inversion of Rayleigh waves provides the most accurate view of the shallowest part of the mantle (depths ≤ 240 km) beneath French Polynesia. Indeed, for the first time the accuracy of a tomography model is good enough to provide information about plume phenomenology in this complex region. In order to quantify the plumes effect on the seafloor, we compute the dynamic topography through an instantaneous flow model. The general trend of the observed depths anomalies (highs and lows) is well recovered. For example the amplitude, location and extension of the swells associated with the Society, Macdonald and Rarotonga are accurately described by the dynamic model. We also find that dynamic uplift is associated with the Tuamotu archipelago which means that a part of the observed swell is due to the present day action of plumes. Since no volcanism ages are available over this chain, this new information may be quite important in understanding the archipelago origin. Another interesting result is that Arago, which is supposed to be an active hotspot along the Cook-Austral chain is situated on a bathymetric low which is well recovered by the dynamic model. Since this region is associated with downwelling flows, this makes us question its hotspot origin.

Current Trends in Nursing Informatics: Results of an International Survey.

PubMed

Peltonen, Laura-Maria; Alhuwail, Dari; Ali, Samira; Badger, Martha K; Eler, Gabrielle Jacklin; Georgsson, Mattias; Islam, Tasneem; Jeon, Eunjoo; Jung, Hyunggu; Kuo, Chiu-Hsiang; Lewis, Adrienne; Pruinelli, Lisiane; Ronquillo, Charlene; Sarmiento, Raymond Francis; Sommer, Janine; Tayaben, Jude L; Topaz, Maxim

2016-01-01

Nursing informatics (NI) can help provide effective and safe healthcare. This study aimed to describe current research trends in NI. In the summer 2015, the IMIA-NI Students Working Group created and distributed an online international survey of the current NI trends. A total of 402 responses were submitted from 44 countries. We identified a top five NI research areas: standardized terminologies, mobile health, clinical decision support, patient safety and big data research. NI research funding was considered to be difficult to acquire by the respondents. Overall, current NI research on education, clinical practice, administration and theory is still scarce, with theory being the least common. Further research is needed to explain the impact of these trends and the needs from clinical practice.

Roles of density-dependent growth and life history evolution in accounting for fisheries-induced trait changes

PubMed Central

Eikeset, Anne Maria; Dunlop, Erin S.; Heino, Mikko; Storvik, Geir; Stenseth, Nils C.; Dieckmann, Ulf

2016-01-01

The relative roles of density dependence and life history evolution in contributing to rapid fisheries-induced trait changes remain debated. In the 1930s, northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua), currently the world’s largest cod stock, experienced a shift from a traditional spawning-ground fishery to an industrial trawl fishery with elevated exploitation in the stock’s feeding grounds. Since then, age and length at maturation have declined dramatically, a trend paralleled in other exploited stocks worldwide. These trends can be explained by demographic truncation of the population’s age structure, phenotypic plasticity in maturation arising through density-dependent growth, fisheries-induced evolution favoring faster-growing or earlier-maturing fish, or a combination of these processes. Here, we use a multitrait eco-evolutionary model to assess the capacity of these processes to reproduce 74 y of historical data on age and length at maturation in northeast Arctic cod, while mimicking the stock’s historical harvesting regime. Our results show that model predictions critically depend on the assumed density dependence of growth: when this is weak, life history evolution might be necessary to prevent stock collapse, whereas when a stronger density dependence estimated from recent data is used, the role of evolution in explaining fisheries-induced trait changes is diminished. Our integrative analysis of density-dependent growth, multitrait evolution, and stock-specific time series data underscores the importance of jointly considering evolutionary and ecological processes, enabling a more comprehensive perspective on empirically observed stock dynamics than previous studies could provide. PMID:27940913

Exploration of pathways related to the decline in female circumcision in Egypt.

PubMed

Modrek, Sepideh; Liu, Jenny X

2013-10-03

There has been a large decline in female genital circumcision (FGC) in Egypt in recent decades. Understanding how this change has occurred so rapidly has been an area of particular interest to policymakers and public health officials alike who seek to further discourage the practice elsewhere. We document the trends in this decline in the newest cohorts of young girls and explore the influences of three pathways--socioeconomic development, social media messages, and women's empowerment--for explaining the observed trends. Using the 2005 and 2008 Egypt Demographic and Health Surveys, we estimate several logistic regression models to (1) examine individual and household determinants of circumcision, (2) assess the contributions of different pathways through which these changes may have occurred, and (3) assess the robustness of different pathways when unobserved community differences are taken into account. Across all communities, socioeconomic status, social media messages, and women's empowerment all have significant independent effects on the risk of circumcision. However, after accounting for unobserved differences across communities, only mother's education and household wealth significantly predict circumcision outcomes. Additional analyses of maternal education suggest that increases in women's education may be causally related to the reduction in FGC prevalence. Women's empowerment and social media appear to be more important in explaining differences across communities; within communities, socioeconomic status is a key driver of girls' circumcision risk. Further investigation of community-level women's educational attainment for mothers suggests that investments made in female education a generation ago may have had echo effects on girls' FGC risk a generation later.

Individualistic sensitivities and exposure to climate change explain variation in species’ distribution and abundance changes

PubMed Central

Palmer, Georgina; Hill, Jane K.; Brereton, Tom M.; Brooks, David R.; Chapman, Jason W.; Fox, Richard; Oliver, Tom H.; Thomas, Chris D.

2015-01-01

The responses of animals and plants to recent climate change vary greatly from species to species, but attempts to understand this variation have met with limited success. This has led to concerns that predictions of responses are inherently uncertain because of the complexity of interacting drivers and biotic interactions. However, we show for an exemplar group of 155 Lepidoptera species that about 60% of the variation among species in their abundance trends over the past four decades can be explained by species-specific exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Distribution changes were less well predicted, but nonetheless, up to 53% of the variation was explained. We found that species vary in their overall sensitivity to climate and respond to different components of the climate despite ostensibly experiencing the same climate changes. Hence, species have undergone different levels of population “forcing” (exposure), driving variation among species in their national-scale abundance and distribution trends. We conclude that variation in species’ responses to recent climate change may be more predictable than previously recognized. PMID:26601276

Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records.

PubMed

Tung, Ka-Kit; Zhou, Jiansong

2013-02-05

The observed global-warming rate has been nonuniform, and the cause of each episode of slowing in the expected warming rate is the subject of intense debate. To explain this, nonrecurrent events have commonly been invoked for each episode separately. After reviewing evidence in both the latest global data (HadCRUT4) and the longest instrumental record, Central England Temperature, a revised picture is emerging that gives a consistent attribution for each multidecadal episode of warming and cooling in recent history, and suggests that the anthropogenic global warming trends might have been overestimated by a factor of two in the second half of the 20th century. A recurrent multidecadal oscillation is found to extend to the preindustrial era in the 353-y Central England Temperature and is likely an internal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), possibly caused by the thermohaline circulation variability. The perspective of a long record helps in quantifying the contribution from internal variability, especially one with a period so long that it is often confused with secular trends in shorter records. Solar contribution is found to be minimal for the second half of the 20th century and less than 10% for the first half. The underlying net anthropogenic warming rate in the industrial era is found to have been steady since 1910 at 0.07-0.08 °C/decade, with superimposed AMO-related ups and downs that included the early 20th century warming, the cooling of the 1960s and 1970s, the accelerated warming of the 1980s and 1990s, and the recent slowing of the warming rates. Quantitatively, the recurrent multidecadal internal variability, often underestimated in attribution studies, accounts for 40% of the observed recent 50-y warming trend.

Stroke trends in an aging population. The Technology Assessment Methods Project Team.

PubMed

Niessen, L W; Barendregt, J J; Bonneux, L; Koudstaal, P J

1993-07-01

Trends in stroke incidence and survival determine changes in stroke morbidity and mortality. This study examines the extent of the incidence decline and survival improvement in the Netherlands from 1979 to 1989. In addition, it projects future changes in stroke morbidity during the period 1985 to 2005, when the country's population will be aging. A state-event transition model is used, which combines Dutch population projections and existing data on stroke epidemiology. Based on the clinical course of stroke, the model describes historical national age- and sex-specific hospital admission and mortality rates for stroke. It extrapolates observed trends and projects future changes in stroke morbidity rates. There is evidence of a continuing incidence decline. The most plausible rate of change is an annual decline of -1.9% (range, -1.7% to -2.1%) for men and -2.4% (range, -2.3% to -2.8%) for women. Projecting a constant mortality decline, the model shows a 35% decrease of the stroke incidence rate for a period of 20 years. Prevalence rates for major stroke will decline among the younger age groups but increase among the oldest because of increased survival in the latter. In absolute numbers this results in an 18% decrease of acute stroke episodes and an 11% increase of major stroke cases. The increase in survival cannot fully explain the observed mortality decline and, therefore, a concomitant incidence decline has to be assumed. Aging of the population partially outweighs the effect of an incidence decline on the total burden of stroke. Increase in cardiovascular survival leads to a further increase in major stroke prevalence among the oldest age groups.

Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records

PubMed Central

Tung, Ka-Kit; Zhou, Jiansong

2013-01-01

The observed global-warming rate has been nonuniform, and the cause of each episode of slowing in the expected warming rate is the subject of intense debate. To explain this, nonrecurrent events have commonly been invoked for each episode separately. After reviewing evidence in both the latest global data (HadCRUT4) and the longest instrumental record, Central England Temperature, a revised picture is emerging that gives a consistent attribution for each multidecadal episode of warming and cooling in recent history, and suggests that the anthropogenic global warming trends might have been overestimated by a factor of two in the second half of the 20th century. A recurrent multidecadal oscillation is found to extend to the preindustrial era in the 353-y Central England Temperature and is likely an internal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), possibly caused by the thermohaline circulation variability. The perspective of a long record helps in quantifying the contribution from internal variability, especially one with a period so long that it is often confused with secular trends in shorter records. Solar contribution is found to be minimal for the second half of the 20th century and less than 10% for the first half. The underlying net anthropogenic warming rate in the industrial era is found to have been steady since 1910 at 0.07–0.08 °C/decade, with superimposed AMO-related ups and downs that included the early 20th century warming, the cooling of the 1960s and 1970s, the accelerated warming of the 1980s and 1990s, and the recent slowing of the warming rates. Quantitatively, the recurrent multidecadal internal variability, often underestimated in attribution studies, accounts for 40% of the observed recent 50-y warming trend. PMID:23345448

Immunization Coverage and Medicaid Managed Care in New Mexico: A Multimethod Assessment

PubMed Central

Schillaci, Michael A.; Waitzkin, Howard; Carson, E. Ann; López, Cynthia M.; Boehm, Deborah A.; López, Leslie A.; Mahoney, Sheila F.

2004-01-01

BACKGROUND We wanted to examine the association between Medicaid managed care (MMC) and changing immunization coverage in New Mexico, a predominantly rural, poor, and multiethnic state. METHODS As part of a multimethod assessment of MMC, we studied trends in quantitative data from the National Immunization Survey (NIS) using temporal plots, Fisher’s exact test, and the Cochran-Armitage trend test. To help explain changes in immunization rates in relation to MMC, we analyzed qualitative data gathered through ethnographic observations at safety net institutions: income support (welfare) offices, community health centers, hospital emergency departments, private physicians’ offices, mental health institutions, managed care organizations, and agencies of state government. RESULTS Immunization coverage decreased significantly after implementation of MMC, from 80% in 1996 to 73% in 2001 for the 4:3:1 vaccination series (Fisher’s exact test, P = .031). New Mexico dropped in rank among states from 30th for this vaccination series in 1996 to 50th in 2001. A significant decreasing trend (Cochran-Armitage P = .025) in coverage occurred between 1996 and 2001. Findings from the ethnographic study revealed conditions that might have contributed to decreased immunization coverage: (1) reduced funding for immunizations at public health clinics, and difficulties in gaining access to MMC providers; (2) informal referrals from managed care organizations and contracting physicians to community health centers and state-run public health clinics; and (3) increased workloads and delays at community health centers, linked partly to these informal referrals for immunizations. CONCLUSIONS Medicaid reform in New Mexico did not improve immunization coverage, which declined significantly to among the lowest in the nation. Reduced funding for public health clinics and informal referrals may have contributed to this decline. These observations show how unanticipated and adverse consequences can result from policy interventions in complex insurance systems. PMID:15053278

Rapid increase of ozone concentrations in Xi'an, China: Anthropogenically or naturally?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Li, G.; Junji, C.

2017-12-01

The air quality in the Guanzhong basin, China has deteriorated recently caused by growing industries, city expansions, and increasing transportation activity. We report here a substantial increasing trend of ozone (O3) concentrations in Xi'an, the largest city of the basin, and the average observed O3 concentration in the afternoon during summertime has increased by 39% from 2013 to 2016. There are two main possible reasons for the rapid O3 increase. Motor vehicle has been reported to increase by 35% in Xi'an, which enhances the O3 precursors emissions to facilitate the O3 formation. In addition, the surface solar radiation at the meteorological site in Xi'an has been observed to intensify by 30%, which increases the photolysis rates to expedite the O3 production. A persistent high O3 episode from 16 to 22 June 2016 in Xi'an has been simulated using the WRF-CHEM model to evaluate the contribution of the transportation emission and solar radiation enhancement on the O3 trend. The model generally performs reasonably well in simulating the temporal variation and spatial distribution of near-surface O3 and NO2 concentrations against measurements in Xi'an. Sensitivity studies have revealed that the enhancement of transportation emissions and the solar radiation explains about 70% of the O3 trend from 2013 to 2016. Considering that large amounts of biogenic emissions are released over the Qinling Mountains on the south of Xi'an, which can be delivered to Xi'an under favorable meteorological conditions, enhancing O3 formation. Therefore, future studies need to be performed to evaluate impacts of the solar radiation enhancement on the biogenic emissions and further the O3 formation in Xi'an.

Temporal variability and coloured noise of SLR translations with respect to the ITRF2014 origin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riddell, Anna; King, Matt; Watson, Christopher; Rietbroek, Roelof; Sun, Yu; Riva, Riccardo

2017-04-01

Inferring large-scale environmental change, such as of sea-level change, glacial isostatic adjustment or ice sheet volume change (i.e. from altimetry), requires a geodetic reference frame stable to 0.1 mm/yr. Since 1988, each iterative improvement in the precision of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) has enabled significant advancement of scientific and technical research in the Earth sciences. We demonstrate the occurrence of coloured noise in the translation components between the SLR network and the long-term ITRF2014 origin from 1993.0 to 2015.0 with power law spectral indices close to -1, where white-noise-only linear trend uncertainties are underestimated by a factor of five in contrast to power-law linear trend uncertainties. The observed geocentre motion is expected to be influenced by the SLR observing network, known as the "network effect". Temporal translations in the SLR network may not necessarily average out over long time periods and therefore have the potential to shift the computed reference frame origin from the true long term centre of mass. Comparison with geophysical loading models demonstrates that the variability cannot be fully accounted for by surface mass transport such as changes in atmospheric, hydrologic or glacial loading. Our results demonstrate that the proportion of variance explained by geophysical surface loading is less than 50% in each translational component. Evidence of temporal variability in both the SLR amplitude and trend of the annual signal suggest that a different coloured noise model be considered in place of, or as an extension of, the traditional linear and white-noise-only model to represent the long-term average centre of mass.

Ecosystem responses in the southern Caribbean Sea to global climate change

PubMed Central

Taylor, Gordon T.; Muller-Karger, Frank E.; Thunell, Robert C.; Scranton, Mary I.; Astor, Yrene; Varela, Ramon; Ghinaglia, Luis Troccoli; Lorenzoni, Laura; Fanning, Kent A.; Hameed, Sultan; Doherty, Owen

2012-01-01

Over the last few decades, rising greenhouse gas emissions have promoted poleward expansion of the large-scale atmospheric Hadley circulation that dominates the Tropics, thereby affecting behavior of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Expression of these changes in tropical marine ecosystems is poorly understood because of sparse observational datasets. We link contemporary ecological changes in the southern Caribbean Sea to global climate change indices. Monthly observations from the CARIACO Ocean Time-Series between 1996 and 2010 document significant decadal scale trends, including a net sea surface temperature (SST) rise of ∼1.0 ± 0.14 °C (±SE), intensified stratification, reduced delivery of upwelled nutrients to surface waters, and diminished phytoplankton bloom intensities evident as overall declines in chlorophyll a concentrations (ΔChla = −2.8 ± 0.5%⋅y−1) and net primary production (ΔNPP = −1.5 ± 0.3%⋅y−1). Additionally, phytoplankton taxon dominance shifted from diatoms, dinoflagellates, and coccolithophorids to smaller taxa after 2004, whereas mesozooplankton biomass increased and commercial landings of planktivorous sardines collapsed. Collectively, our results reveal an ecological state change in this planktonic system. The weakening trend in Trade Winds (−1.9 ± 0.3%⋅y−1) and dependent local variables are largely explained by trends in two climatic indices, namely the northward migration of the Azores High pressure center (descending branch of Hadley cell) by 1.12 ± 0.42°N latitude and the northeasterly progression of the ITCZ Atlantic centroid (ascending branch of Hadley cell), the March position of which shifted by about 800 km between 1996 and 2009. PMID:23071299

A prospective study of meat, cooking methods, meat mutagens, heme iron, and lung cancer risks.

PubMed

Tasevska, Natasa; Sinha, Rashmi; Kipnis, Victor; Subar, Amy F; Leitzmann, Michael F; Hollenbeck, Albert R; Caporaso, Neil E; Schatzkin, Arthur; Cross, Amanda J

2009-06-01

Red and processed meat consumption may play a role in lung cancer pathogenesis because of these meats' fat and carcinogen content. We prospectively investigated whether meat type, cooking method, doneness level, and intake of specific meat mutagens and heme iron are associated with lung carcinoma. Men (n = 278,380) and women (n = 189,596) from the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study with no history of cancer at baseline were monitored for 8 y. Diet was assessed with a 124-item food-frequency questionnaire. A meat-cooking module was used to estimate the intake of individual heterocyclic amines, benzo(a)pyrene, and heme iron. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. In a comparison of quintiles 5 with 1 (Q5vsQ1), a high intake of red meat was associated with an increased risk of lung carcinoma in both men (HR(Q5vsQ1): 1.22; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.38; P for trend = 0.005) and women (HR(Q5vsQ1): 1.13; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.32; P for trend = 0.05). A high intake of processed meat increased the risk only in men (HR(Q5vsQ1): 1.23; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.37; P for trend = 0.003). In an analysis stratified by smoking status, we observed a tendency for an increased risk with red meat intake in never smoking men and women; however, the risks were not statistically significant. In a comparison of tertiles 3 and 1 (T3vsT1), the risk of lung carcinoma was associated with intake of well-/very-well-done meat (HR(T3vsT1): 1.20; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.35; P for trend = 0.002) and the intake of 2-amino-3,8-dimethylimidazo[4,5-f]quinoxaline (HR(Q5vsQ1): 1.20; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.38; P for trend = 0.04) in men. Heme iron intake increased the risk of lung carcinoma in both men (HR(Q5vsQ1): 1.25; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.45; P for trend = 0.02) and women (HR(Q5vsQ1): 1.18; 95% CI: 0.99, 1.42; P for trend = 0.002). We observed a moderate association between meat consumption and lung carcinoma, which might be explained by heme iron intake, high-temperature cooking, and associated mutagens.

TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC TRENDS 2017

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-05

The report has eight chapters: - Chapter 1 introduces the Transportation Services Index, a monthly summary of freight and passenger movement. - Chapter 2 explains what transportation contributes to the American economy. - Chapter 3 examines the costs...

Site occupancy, composition and magnetic structure dependencies of martensitic transformation in Mn2Ni1 + x Sn1-x.

PubMed

Kundu, Ashis; Ghosh, Subhradip

2017-11-29

A delicate balance between various factors such as site occupancy, composition and magnetic ordering seems to affect the stability of the martensitic phase in [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text]. Using first-principles DFT calculations, we explore the impacts of each one of these factors on the martensitic stability of this system. Our results on total energies, magnetic moments and electronic structures upon changes in the composition, the magnetic configurations and the site occupancies show that the occupancies at the 4d sites in the inverse Heusler crystal structure play the most crucial role. The presence of Mn at the 4d sites originally occupied by Sn and its interaction with the Mn atoms at other sites decide the stability of the martensitic phases. This explains the discrepancy between the experiments and earlier DFT calculations regarding phase stability in [Formula: see text]NiSn. Our results qualitatively explain the trends observed experimentally with regard to martensitic phase stability and the magnetisations in Ni-excess, Sn-deficient [Formula: see text]NiSn system.

Differences in habitat selection of male and female megrim ( Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis, Walbaum) to the west of Ireland. A result of differences in life-history strategies between the sexes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerritsen, H. D.; McGrath, D.; Lordan, C.; Harlay, X.

2010-11-01

The sex ratio in the catches of megrim ( Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis, Walbaum) varied systematically with depth on three independent trawl survey series off the west coast of Ireland. Female megrim dominated the shallow catches, while males were more common in catches from deeper waters. The size difference between the sexes alone cannot explain this pattern because it remained evident when fish length was taken into account. Therefore size-specific habitat preferences or size-selective fishing mortality cannot fully explain the observed trend in the sex ratio of megrim. Female megrim grow to a larger size, at a faster rate than males and it is likely that their differences in habitat preferences are related to this. Shallower waters are warmer during the growing season and are likely to provide better conditions for fast growth. An understanding of the mechanisms behind these patterns is an important consideration in the management and conservation of this fish stock, which might be particularly vulnerable because the commercial landings are to a large extent dominated by female megrim.

monitoring la Soufrière de Guadeloupe phreatic system with muon tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jourde, Kevin; Gibert, Dominique; Marteau, Jacques; de Bremond d'Ars, Jean; Ianigro, Jean-Christophe; Gardien, Serge; Girerd, Claude

2015-04-01

Muon tomography is a novel geophysics imaging technique that measures the flux of cosmic muons crossing geological bodies. Its attenuation is directly related to their thickness and density. On la Soufrière de Guadeloupe volcano, we could extract tiny particle flux fluctuations from the tomography signal of long-term acquisitions (a few months). We prove that atmospheric fluctuations or solar activity, which are the usual candidates for cosmic particles time modulations, cannot explain these changes leaving the volcanic dome phreatic system as the only explanation. Moreover the temporal trends we extracted from the different observation axes of our instrument show a good spatial and temporal correlation with events occuring at the surface of the volcano.

Unraveling the Mystery of Exozodiacal Dust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ertel, S.; Augereau, J.-C.; Thébault, P.; Absil, O.; Bonsor, A.; Defrère, D.; Kral, Q.; Le Bouquin, J.-B.; Lebreton, J.; Coudé du Foresto, V.

2014-01-01

Exozodiacal dust clouds are thought to be the extrasolar analogs of the Solar System's zodiacal dust. Studying these systems provides insights in the architecture of the innermost regions of planetary systems, including the Habitable Zone. Furthermore, the mere presence of the dust may result in major obstacles for direct imaging of earth-like planets. Our EXOZODI project aims to detect and study exozodiacal dust and to explain its origin. We are carrying out the first large, near-infrared interferometric survey in the northern (CHARA/FLUOR) and southern (VLTI/PIONIER) hemispheres. Preliminary results suggest a detection rate of up to 30% around A to K type stars and interesting trends with spectral type and age. We focus here on presenting the observational work carried out by our team.

Tunneling rates in electron transport through double-barrier molecular junctions in a scanning tunneling microscope

PubMed Central

Nazin, G. V.; Wu, S. W.; Ho, W.

2005-01-01

The scanning tunneling microscope enables atomic-scale measurements of electron transport through individual molecules. Copper phthalocyanine and magnesium porphine molecules adsorbed on a thin oxide film grown on the NiAl(110) surface were probed. The single-molecule junctions contained two tunneling barriers, vacuum gap, and oxide film. Differential conductance spectroscopy shows that electron transport occurs via vibronic states of the molecules. The intensity of spectral peaks corresponding to the individual vibronic states depends on the relative electron tunneling rates through the two barriers of the junction, as found by varying the vacuum gap tunneling rate by changing the height of the scanning tunneling microscope tip above the molecule. A simple, sequential tunneling model explains the observed trends. PMID:15956189

Tunneling rates in electron transport through double-barrier molecular junctions in a scanning tunneling microscope.

PubMed

Nazin, G V; Wu, S W; Ho, W

2005-06-21

The scanning tunneling microscope enables atomic-scale measurements of electron transport through individual molecules. Copper phthalocyanine and magnesium porphine molecules adsorbed on a thin oxide film grown on the NiAl(110) surface were probed. The single-molecule junctions contained two tunneling barriers, vacuum gap, and oxide film. Differential conductance spectroscopy shows that electron transport occurs via vibronic states of the molecules. The intensity of spectral peaks corresponding to the individual vibronic states depends on the relative electron tunneling rates through the two barriers of the junction, as found by varying the vacuum gap tunneling rate by changing the height of the scanning tunneling microscope tip above the molecule. A simple, sequential tunneling model explains the observed trends.

Epidemiology of melanoma: is it still epidemic? What is the role of the sun, sunbeds, Vit D, betablocks, and others?

PubMed

De Giorgi, Vincenzo; Gori, Alessia; Grazzini, Marta; Rossari, Susanna; Oranges, Teresa; Longo, Anna Sara; Lotti, Torello; Gandini, Sara

2012-01-01

The incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma is continuously increasing worldwide, but only minimal changes in mortality have been observed. This phenomenon has brought into question whether this increased incidence reflects a true or apparent melanoma epidemic. The most recent data suggest that this epidemiological trend may be explained by the existence of a certain degree of melanoma overdiagnosis, especially of thin lesions, which probably would never progress to advanced disease if left untreated. However, acute sun exposure and widespread use of sunbeds may also justify the increase in melanoma incidence. Recently, both vitamin D and beta-blocker use seem to play a beneficial role in melanoma progression. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Bruehl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; deGrandpre, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.;

Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Brühl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; de Grandpré, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.; Portmann, R. W.; Rognerud, B.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Smyshlyaev, S.; Nagashima, T.; Velders, G. J. M.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Xia, J.

2006-01-01

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

Version 8 SBUV Ozone Profile Trends Compared with Trends from a Zonally Averaged Chemical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenfield, Joan E.; Frith, Stacey; Stolarski, Richard

2004-01-01

Linear regression trends for the years 1979-2003 were computed using the new Version 8 merged Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) data set of ozone profiles. These trends were compared to trends computed using ozone profiles from the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) zonally averaged coupled model. Observed and modeled annual trends between 50 N and 50 S were a maximum in the higher latitudes of the upper stratosphere, with southern hemisphere (SH) trends greater than northern hemisphere (NH) trends. The observed upper stratospheric maximum annual trend is -5.5 +/- 0.9 % per decade (1 sigma) at 47.5 S and -3.8 +/- 0.5 % per decade at 47.5 N, to be compared with the modeled trends of -4.5 +/- 0.3 % per decade in the SH and -4.0 +/- 0.2% per decade in the NH. Both observed and modeled trends are most negative in winter and least negative in summer, although the modeled seasonal difference is less than observed. Model trends are shown to be greatest in winter due to a repartitioning of chlorine species and the increasing abundance of chlorine with time. The model results show that trend differences can occur depending on whether ozone profiles are in mixing ratio or number density coordinates, and on whether they are recorded on pressure or altitude levels.

Dressed for success.

PubMed

Shuttleworth, Ann

Nothing is more symbolic of nursing than its uniform. Reflecting rank, employer, social trends and even infection control policy--uniform changes since Nursing Times launched in 1905 provide a visual history of the profession, as Ann Shuttleworth explains.

Hungry for solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacPhee, Cait

2016-11-01

As obesity rates continue to rise in many parts of the world, Cait MacPhee explains how soft-matter physicists could help reverse the trend by crafting “functional” foods that promote feelings of fullness and satisfaction

Patterns of protein–protein interactions in salt solutions and implications for protein crystallization

PubMed Central

Dumetz, André C.; Snellinger-O'Brien, Ann M.; Kaler, Eric W.; Lenhoff, Abraham M.

2007-01-01

The second osmotic virial coefficients of seven proteins—ovalbumin, ribonuclease A, bovine serum albumin, α-lactalbumin, myoglobin, cytochrome c, and catalase—were measured in salt solutions. Comparison of the interaction trends in terms of the dimensionless second virial coefficient b2 shows that, at low salt concentrations, protein–protein interactions can be either attractive or repulsive, possibly due to the anisotropy of the protein charge distribution. At high salt concentrations, the behavior depends on the salt: In sodium chloride, protein interactions generally show little salt dependence up to very high salt concentrations, whereas in ammonium sulfate, proteins show a sharp drop in b2 with increasing salt concentration beyond a particular threshold. The experimental phase behavior of the proteins corroborates these observations in that precipitation always follows the drop in b2. When the proteins crystallize, they do so at slightly lower salt concentrations than seen for precipitation. The b2 measurements were extended to other salts for ovalbumin and catalase. The trends follow the Hofmeister series, and the effect of the salt can be interpreted as a water-mediated effect between the protein and salt molecules. The b2 trends quantify protein–protein interactions and provide some understanding of the corresponding phase behavior. The results explain both why ammonium sulfate is among the best crystallization agents, as well as some of the difficulties that can be encountered in protein crystallization. PMID:17766383

The Effect of Short-Term Dietary Fructose Supplementation on Gastric Emptying Rate and Gastrointestinal Hormone Responses in Healthy Men.

PubMed

Yau, Adora M W; McLaughlin, John; Maughan, Ronald J; Gilmore, William; Evans, Gethin H

2017-03-10

This study aimed to examine gastric emptying rate and gastrointestinal hormone responses to fructose and glucose ingestion following 3 days of dietary fructose supplementation. Using the 13 C-breath test method, gastric emptying rates of equicaloric fructose and glucose solutions were measured in 10 healthy men with prior fructose supplementation (fructose supplement, FS; glucose supplement, GS) and without prior fructose supplementation (fructose control, FC; glucose control, GC). In addition, circulating concentrations of acylated ghrelin (GHR), glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP), and insulin were determined, as well as leptin, lactate, and triglycerides. Increased dietary fructose ingestion resulted in accelerated gastric emptying rate of a fructose solution but not a glucose solution. No differences in GIP, GLP-1, or insulin incremental area under curve (iAUC) were found between control and supplement trials for either fructose or glucose ingestion. However, a trend for lower ghrelin iAUC was observed for FS compared to FC. In addition, a trend of lower GHR concentration was observed at 45 min for FS compared to FC and GHR concentration for GS was greater than GC at 10 min. The accelerated gastric emptying rate of fructose following short-term supplementation with fructose may be partially explained by subtle changes in delayed postprandial ghrelin suppression.

The Effect of Short-Term Dietary Fructose Supplementation on Gastric Emptying Rate and Gastrointestinal Hormone Responses in Healthy Men

PubMed Central

Yau, Adora M. W.; McLaughlin, John; Maughan, Ronald J.; Gilmore, William; Evans, Gethin H.

2017-01-01

This study aimed to examine gastric emptying rate and gastrointestinal hormone responses to fructose and glucose ingestion following 3 days of dietary fructose supplementation. Using the 13C-breath test method, gastric emptying rates of equicaloric fructose and glucose solutions were measured in 10 healthy men with prior fructose supplementation (fructose supplement, FS; glucose supplement, GS) and without prior fructose supplementation (fructose control, FC; glucose control, GC). In addition, circulating concentrations of acylated ghrelin (GHR), glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP), and insulin were determined, as well as leptin, lactate, and triglycerides. Increased dietary fructose ingestion resulted in accelerated gastric emptying rate of a fructose solution but not a glucose solution. No differences in GIP, GLP-1, or insulin incremental area under curve (iAUC) were found between control and supplement trials for either fructose or glucose ingestion. However, a trend for lower ghrelin iAUC was observed for FS compared to FC. In addition, a trend of lower GHR concentration was observed at 45 min for FS compared to FC and GHR concentration for GS was greater than GC at 10 min. The accelerated gastric emptying rate of fructose following short-term supplementation with fructose may be partially explained by subtle changes in delayed postprandial ghrelin suppression. PMID:28287413

The Effect of Elevation Bias in Interpolated Air Temperature Data Sets on Surface Warming in China During 1951-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tingting; Sun, Fubao; Ge, Quansheng; Kleidon, Axel; Liu, Wenbin

2018-02-01

Although gridded air temperature data sets share much of the same observations, different rates of warming can be detected due to different approaches employed for considering elevation signatures in the interpolation processes. Here we examine the influence of varying spatiotemporal distribution of sites on surface warming in the long-term trend and over the recent warming hiatus period in China during 1951-2015. A suspicious cooling trend in raw interpolated air temperature time series is found in the 1950s, and 91% of which can be explained by the artificial elevation changes introduced by the interpolation process. We define the regression slope relating temperature difference and elevation difference as the bulk lapse rate of -5.6°C/km, which tends to be higher (-8.7°C/km) in dry regions but lower (-2.4°C/km) in wet regions. Compared to independent experimental observations, we find that the estimated monthly bulk lapse rates work well to capture the elevation bias. Significant improvement can be achieved in adjusting the interpolated original temperature time series using the bulk lapse rate. The results highlight that the developed bulk lapse rate is useful to account for the elevation signature in the interpolation of site-based surface air temperature to gridded data sets and is necessary for avoiding elevation bias in climate change studies.

Metagenomic covariation along densely sampled environmental gradients in the Red Sea

PubMed Central

Thompson, Luke R; Williams, Gareth J; Haroon, Mohamed F; Shibl, Ahmed; Larsen, Peter; Shorenstein, Joshua; Knight, Rob; Stingl, Ulrich

2017-01-01

Oceanic microbial diversity covaries with physicochemical parameters. Temperature, for example, explains approximately half of global variation in surface taxonomic abundance. It is unknown, however, whether covariation patterns hold over narrower parameter gradients and spatial scales, and extending to mesopelagic depths. We collected and sequenced 45 epipelagic and mesopelagic microbial metagenomes on a meridional transect through the eastern Red Sea. We asked which environmental parameters explain the most variation in relative abundances of taxonomic groups, gene ortholog groups, and pathways—at a spatial scale of <2000 km, along narrow but well-defined latitudinal and depth-dependent gradients. We also asked how microbes are adapted to gradients and extremes in irradiance, temperature, salinity, and nutrients, examining the responses of individual gene ortholog groups to these parameters. Functional and taxonomic metrics were equally well explained (75–79%) by environmental parameters. However, only functional and not taxonomic covariation patterns were conserved when comparing with an intruding water mass with different physicochemical properties. Temperature explained the most variation in each metric, followed by nitrate, chlorophyll, phosphate, and salinity. That nitrate explained more variation than phosphate suggested nitrogen limitation, consistent with low surface N:P ratios. Covariation of gene ortholog groups with environmental parameters revealed patterns of functional adaptation to the challenging Red Sea environment: high irradiance, temperature, salinity, and low nutrients. Nutrient-acquisition gene ortholog groups were anti-correlated with concentrations of their respective nutrient species, recapturing trends previously observed across much larger distances and environmental gradients. This dataset of metagenomic covariation along densely sampled environmental gradients includes online data exploration supplements, serving as a community resource for marine microbial ecology. PMID:27420030

Could Trends in Time Children Spend with Parents Help Explain the Black-White Gap in Human Capital? Evidence from the American Time Use Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patterson, Richard W.

2017-01-01

It is widely believed that the time children spend with parents significantly impacts human capital formation. If time varies significantly between black and white children, this may help explain the large racial gap in test scores and wages. In this study, I use data from the American Time Use Survey to examine the patterns in the time black and…

Compositional Trends on the Large Moons of Uranus: Evidence for System-Wide Modification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cartwright, R.; Emery, J. P.

2017-12-01

Previous near-infrared (NIR) observations centered over southern latitudes ( 5 - 30°S) of the classical Uranian moons have detected H2Oww ice bands, mixed with a spectrally neutral and low albedo constituent. The strengths of the detected H2O bands are greater on the leading hemispheres of these moons compared to their trailing hemispheres, with a reduction in leading/trailing H2O band strengths with distance from Uranus. CO2 ice bands have been detected in spectra collected over the trailing hemispheres of the classical Uranian satellites, with stronger CO2 bands on the moons closest to Uranus. Our preferred hypotheses to explain the hemispherical and planetocentric trends in the distribution of CO2 and the strength of detected H2O bands are: bombardment by magnetospherically-embedded charged particles, primarily on the trailing hemispheres of these moons, and bombardment by dust particles, primarily on their leading hemispheres. To test these complementary hypotheses, we are constraining the distribution and spectral characteristics of surface constituents on the currently observable northern hemispheres (sub-observer lat. 20 - 35°N) of these moons with new NIR observations. Analysis of northern hemisphere data shows that CO2 is present on their trailing hemispheres, and H2O bands are strongest on their leading hemispheres, in agreement with the southern hemisphere data. This longitudinal distribution of constituents supports our preferred hypotheses. Tantalizing mysteries regarding the distribution of constituents on these moons remain. There has been no detection of CO2 on Miranda, and H2O bands are subtly stronger on its trailing hemisphere compared to its leading hemisphere, counter to the hemispherical trends displayed on the other classical satellites. Some Uranian satellite spectra display a subtle absorption feature near 2.2 µm, which could result from the presence of NH3-hydrates on these moons. The presence of this volatile constituent could indicate recent cryovolcanic emplacement and/or recent exposure of NH3-hydrates via mass wasting, tectonism, or impact events. We will present work related to our goals of constraining the processes modifying the surfaces of the classical Uranian moons.

Temperature And Bandwidth Effect in Brewer and Dobson Direct Sun Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scarnato, B.; Staehelin, J.; Stuebi, R.

2007-12-01

Dobson and Brewer spectrophotometer are the main instruments to monitor the ozone shield by ground based observations, and they have an important role for validation of ozone satellite data. Ground based total ozone observations from Brewer and Dobson spectrophotometers, operated at mid-latitudes stations, typically show a seasonal bias in the residual with a amplitude of a few percent. Mid-latitude total ozone trends caused by ozone depleting substances are on the order of few percents per decade. Therefore, only a maximum instrumental shift of 1% over the measured period can be tolerated for measurements to derive reliable trends. At Arosa two Dobson and three Brewers instruments have been co-located since 1992, producing a unique data set of quasi-simultaneous observations that is valuable for the study of systematic differences within the measurements. The differences can be at least partially attributed to the different sensitivities of the wavelengths used in the retrieval algorithms. This might explain different column ozone as a consequence of seasonal variability, mainly, in temperature in the lower stratosphere and in ozone slant path. The temperature dependence has been calculated using three different absorption spectra (Bass and Paur, Daumont and those used in the GOME satellite), weighing of the slit functions for each operational Brewer and for the primary standard Dobson spectrophotometers. The seasonal bias between Dobson and Brewer total ozone measurements is reduced from 3% to 1%, if one takes into account the temperature dependence of the Bass and Paur absorptions spectra and the ozone slant path effect. The accuracy and the resolution step of the experimental data of ozone cross sections have an important role. The ozone cross section must be convoluted for the slits functions that can vary from one instrument to an other, therefore the different spectra yield different results.

May common model biases reduce CMIP5's ability to simulate the recent Pacific La Niña-like cooling?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jing-Jia; Wang, Gang; Dommenget, Dietmar

2018-02-01

Over the recent three decades sea surface temperate (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific has decreased, which helps reduce the rate of global warming. However, most CMIP5 model simulations with historical radiative forcing do not reproduce this Pacific La Niña-like cooling. Based on the assumption of "perfect" models, previous studies have suggested that errors in simulated internal climate variations and/or external radiative forcing may cause the discrepancy between the multi-model simulations and the observation. But the exact causes remain unclear. Recent studies have suggested that observed SST warming in the other two ocean basins in past decades and the thermostat mechanism in the Pacific in response to increased radiative forcing may also play an important role in driving this La Niña-like cooling. Here, we investigate an alternative hypothesis that common biases of current state-of-the-art climate models may deteriorate the models' ability and can also contribute to this multi-model simulations-observation discrepancy. Our results suggest that underestimated inter-basin warming contrast across the three tropical oceans, overestimated surface net heat flux and underestimated local SST-cloud negative feedback in the equatorial Pacific may favor an El Niño-like warming bias in the models. Effects of the three common model biases do not cancel one another and jointly explain 50% of the total variance of the discrepancies between the observation and individual models' ensemble mean simulations of the Pacific SST trend. Further efforts on reducing common model biases could help improve simulations of the externally forced climate trends and the multi-decadal climate fluctuations.

Living arrangements among older people: an overview of trends in Europe and the USA.

PubMed

Tomassini, Cecilia; Glaser, Karen; Wolf, Douglas A; Broese van Groenou, Marjolein I; Grundy, Emily

2004-01-01

This article compares the trends in living arrangements of older people in several European countries and in the United States. Trends and cross-country variability in several factors that could account for these cross-national differences, including marital status, fertility, labour force participation and attitudes, are also examined. In most countries the proportion of older people living alone increased substantially between 1970 and 1990. However the increase in living alone stabilised or even declined between 1990 and 2000 in most of the countries analysed indicating a possible reversal in the trend. Increases in proportions of older women who are married and reductions in the proportions childless may partially explain this. Considerable variability in both trends and levels of older people's living arrangements was seen especially between north-western and southern European countries. These variations mirrored contrasts in attitudes towards residential care and parent-child coresidence between the countries.

Formation and evolution of Lakshmi Planum, Venus: Assessment of models using observations from geological mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, M. A.; Head, J. W.

2008-12-01

Detailed geological analysis of the Lakshmi Planum region of western Ishtar Terra results in the establishment of the sequence of major events during the formation and evolution of western Ishtar Terra, an important and somewhat unique area on Venus characterized by a raised volcanic plateau surrounded by distinctive folded mountain belts, such as Maxwell Montes. These mapping results and the stratigraphic and structural relationships provide a basis for addressing the complicated problem of Lakshmi Planum formation and for testing the suite of models previously proposed to explain this structure. We review and classify previous models of formation for western Ishtar Terra into "downwelling" models (generally involving convergence and underthrusting) and "upwelling" models (generally involving plume-like upwelling and divergence). The interpreted nature of units and the sequence of events derived from geological mapping are in contrast to the predictions of the divergent models. The major contradictions are as follows: (1) The very likely presence of an ancient (craton-like) tessera massif in the core of Lakshmi, which is inconsistent with the model of formation of Lakshmi due to rise and collapse of a mantle diapir; (2) The absence of rift zones in the interior of Lakshmi that are predicted by the divergent models; (3) The apparent migration of volcanic activity toward the center of Lakshmi, whereas divergent models predict the opposite trend; (4) The abrupt cessation of ridges of the mountain ranges at the edge of Lakshmi Planum and propagation of these ridges over hundreds of kilometers outside Lakshmi; the divergent models predict the opposite progression in the development of major contractional features. In contrast, convergent models of formation and evolution of Lakshmi Planum appear to be more consistent with the observations and explain this structure by collision and underthrusting/subduction of lower-lying plains with the elevated and rigid block of tessera. These models are capable of explaining formation of the major features of western Ishtar (for example, the mountain belts), the sequences of events, and principal volcanic and tectonic trends during the evolution of Lakshmi. To explain the pronounced north-south asymmetry of Lakshmi these models need to consider the likelihood that the major focal points of collision are at the north and north-west margins of the plateau. We note that pure downwelling models, however, face three important difficulties: (1) The possibly unrealistically long time span that appears to be required to produce the major features of Lakshmi; (2) The strong north-south asymmetry of the Planum; the pure downwelling models predict the formation of a more symmetrical structure; and (3) The absence of radial contractional structures (arches and ridges) in the interior of Lakshmi that would represent the predictions of the downwelling models.

Living kidney donation and masked nationalism in Israel.

PubMed

Epstein, Miran

2017-01-01

This paper draws attention to a current trend of masked conditional-nationalist living kidney donation in Israel, to which the local transplant system has been turning a blind eye. The paper seeks to make the international transplant and bioethics communities aware of this disturbing trend. It also explains why it is wrong and suggests how to tackle it. Finally, it calls on the Israeli system to bring the practice to a halt for the benefit of all parties involved.