Preschool Children's Understanding of Conflicting Desires

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cassidy, Kimberly Wright; Cosetti, Maura; Jones, Ressa; Kelton, Emily; Rafal, Valerie Meier; Richman, Lisa; Stanhaus, Heather

2005-01-01

This study examines the conditions under which 3-year-olds can use the desires of others to predict others' behavior. In Study 1, children were highly successful in predicting the actions of an agent based on that agent's desires when they were explicitly told about the agent's desires, even when the agent's desires were strongly different from…

A validated agent-based model to study the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of malaria incidence in the rainforest environment.

PubMed

Pizzitutti, Francesco; Pan, William; Barbieri, Alisson; Miranda, J Jaime; Feingold, Beth; Guedes, Gilvan R; Alarcon-Valenzuela, Javiera; Mena, Carlos F

2015-12-22

The Amazon environment has been exposed in the last decades to radical changes that have been accompanied by a remarkable rise of both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. The malaria transmission process is highly influenced by factors such as spatial and temporal heterogeneities of the environment and individual-based characteristics of mosquitoes and humans populations. All these determinant factors can be simulated effectively trough agent-based models. This paper presents a validated agent-based model of local-scale malaria transmission. The model reproduces the environment of a typical riverine village in the northern Peruvian Amazon, where the malaria transmission is highly seasonal and apparently associated with flooding of large areas caused by the neighbouring river. Agents representing humans, mosquitoes and the two species of Plasmodium (P. falciparum and P. vivax) are simulated in a spatially explicit representation of the environment around the village. The model environment includes: climate, people houses positions and elevation. A representation of changes in the mosquito breeding areas extension caused by the river flooding is also included in the simulation environment. A calibration process was carried out to reproduce the variations of the malaria monthly incidence over a period of 3 years. The calibrated model is also able to reproduce the spatial heterogeneities of local scale malaria transmission. A "what if" eradication strategy scenario is proposed: if the mosquito breeding sites are eliminated through mosquito larva habitat management in a buffer area extended at least 200 m around the village, the malaria transmission is eradicated from the village. The use of agent-based models can reproduce effectively the spatiotemporal variations of the malaria transmission in a low endemicity environment dominated by river floodings like in the Amazon.

Theory of the evolutionary minority game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, T. S.; Hui, P. M.; Johnson, N. F.

2000-09-01

We present a theory describing a recently introduced model of an evolving, adaptive system in which agents compete to be in the minority. The agents themselves are able to evolve their strategies over time in an attempt to improve their performance. The theory explicitly demonstrates the self-interaction, or market impact, that agents in such systems experience.

Identification of walking human model using agent-based modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahabpoor, Erfan; Pavic, Aleksandar; Racic, Vitomir

2018-03-01

The interaction of walking people with large vibrating structures, such as footbridges and floors, in the vertical direction is an important yet challenging phenomenon to describe mathematically. Several different models have been proposed in the literature to simulate interaction of stationary people with vibrating structures. However, the research on moving (walking) human models, explicitly identified for vibration serviceability assessment of civil structures, is still sparse. In this study, the results of a comprehensive set of FRF-based modal tests were used, in which, over a hundred test subjects walked in different group sizes and walking patterns on a test structure. An agent-based model was used to simulate discrete traffic-structure interactions. The occupied structure modal parameters found in tests were used to identify the parameters of the walking individual's single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) mass-spring-damper model using 'reverse engineering' methodology. The analysis of the results suggested that the normal distribution with the average of μ = 2.85Hz and standard deviation of σ = 0.34Hz can describe human SDOF model natural frequency. Similarly, the normal distribution with μ = 0.295 and σ = 0.047 can describe the human model damping ratio. Compared to the previous studies, the agent-based modelling methodology proposed in this paper offers significant flexibility in simulating multi-pedestrian walking traffics, external forces and simulating different mechanisms of human-structure and human-environment interaction at the same time.

Agent-based modeling of malaria vectors: the importance of spatial simulation.

PubMed

Bomblies, Arne

2014-07-03

The modeling of malaria vector mosquito populations yields great insight into drivers of malaria transmission at the village scale. Simulation of individual mosquitoes as "agents" in a distributed, dynamic model domain may be greatly beneficial for simulation of spatial relationships of vectors and hosts. In this study, an agent-based model is used to simulate the life cycle and movement of individual malaria vector mosquitoes in a Niger Sahel village, with individual simulated mosquitoes interacting with their physical environment as well as humans. Various processes that are known to be epidemiologically important, such as the dependence of parity on flight distance between developmental habitat and blood meal hosts and therefore spatial relationships of pools and houses, are readily simulated using this modeling paradigm. Impacts of perturbations can be evaluated on the basis of vectorial capacity, because the interactions between individuals that make up the population- scale metric vectorial capacity can be easily tracked for simulated mosquitoes and human blood meal hosts, without the need to estimate vectorial capacity parameters. As expected, model results show pronounced impacts of pool source reduction from larvicide application and draining, but with varying degrees of impact depending on the spatial relationship between pools and human habitation. Results highlight the importance of spatially-explicit simulation that can model individuals such as in an agent-based model. The impacts of perturbations on village scale malaria transmission depend on spatial locations of individual mosquitoes, as well as the tracking of relevant life cycle events and characteristics of individual mosquitoes. This study demonstrates advantages of using an agent-based approach for village-scale mosquito simulation to address questions in which spatial relationships are known to be important.

Modeling plug-in electric vehicle charging demand with BEAM: the framework for behavior energy autonomy mobility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sheppard, Colin; Waraich, Rashid; Campbell, Andrew

This report summarizes the BEAM modeling framework (Behavior, Energy, Mobility, and Autonomy) and its application to simulating plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) mobility, energy consumption, and spatiotemporal charging demand. BEAM is an agent-based model of PEV mobility and charging behavior designed as an extension to MATSim (the Multi-Agent Transportation Simulation model). We apply BEAM to the San Francisco Bay Area and conduct a preliminary calibration and validation of its prediction of charging load based on observed charging infrastructure utilization for the region in 2016. We then explore the impact of a variety of common modeling assumptions in the literature regarding chargingmore » infrastructure availability and driver behavior. We find that accurately reproducing observed charging patterns requires an explicit representation of spatially disaggregated charging infrastructure as well as a more nuanced model of the decision to charge that balances tradeoffs people make with regards to time, cost, convenience, and range anxiety.« less

Clipping in neurocontrol by adaptive dynamic programming.

PubMed

Fairbank, Michael; Prokhorov, Danil; Alonso, Eduardo

2014-10-01

In adaptive dynamic programming, neurocontrol, and reinforcement learning, the objective is for an agent to learn to choose actions so as to minimize a total cost function. In this paper, we show that when discretized time is used to model the motion of the agent, it can be very important to do clipping on the motion of the agent in the final time step of the trajectory. By clipping, we mean that the final time step of the trajectory is to be truncated such that the agent stops exactly at the first terminal state reached, and no distance further. We demonstrate that when clipping is omitted, learning performance can fail to reach the optimum, and when clipping is done properly, learning performance can improve significantly. The clipping problem we describe affects algorithms that use explicit derivatives of the model functions of the environment to calculate a learning gradient. These include backpropagation through time for control and methods based on dual heuristic programming. However, the clipping problem does not significantly affect methods based on heuristic dynamic programming, temporal differences learning, or policy-gradient learning algorithms.

An Agent-Based Simulation for Investigating the Impact of Stereotypes on Task-Oriented Group Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maghami, Mahsa; Sukthankar, Gita

In this paper, we introduce an agent-based simulation for investigating the impact of social factors on the formation and evolution of task-oriented groups. Task-oriented groups are created explicitly to perform a task, and all members derive benefits from task completion. However, even in cases when all group members act in a way that is locally optimal for task completion, social forces that have mild effects on choice of associates can have a measurable impact on task completion performance. In this paper, we show how our simulation can be used to model the impact of stereotypes on group formation. In our simulation, stereotypes are based on observable features, learned from prior experience, and only affect an agent's link formation preferences. Even without assuming stereotypes affect the agents' willingness or ability to complete tasks, the long-term modifications that stereotypes have on the agents' social network impair the agents' ability to form groups with sufficient diversity of skills, as compared to agents who form links randomly. An interesting finding is that this effect holds even in cases where stereotype preference and skill existence are completely uncorrelated.

A coupled modeling framework for sustainable watershed management in transboundary river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furqan Khan, Hassaan; Yang, Y. C. Ethan; Xie, Hua; Ringler, Claudia

2017-12-01

There is a growing recognition among water resource managers that sustainable watershed management needs to not only account for the diverse ways humans benefit from the environment, but also incorporate the impact of human actions on the natural system. Coupled natural-human system modeling through explicit modeling of both natural and human behavior can help reveal the reciprocal interactions and co-evolution of the natural and human systems. This study develops a spatially scalable, generalized agent-based modeling (ABM) framework consisting of a process-based semi-distributed hydrologic model (SWAT) and a decentralized water system model to simulate the impacts of water resource management decisions that affect the food-water-energy-environment (FWEE) nexus at a watershed scale. Agents within a river basin are geographically delineated based on both political and watershed boundaries and represent key stakeholders of ecosystem services. Agents decide about the priority across three primary water uses: food production, hydropower generation and ecosystem health within their geographical domains. Agents interact with the environment (streamflow) through the SWAT model and interact with other agents through a parameter representing willingness to cooperate. The innovative two-way coupling between the water system model and SWAT enables this framework to fully explore the feedback of human decisions on the environmental dynamics and vice versa. To support non-technical stakeholder interactions, a web-based user interface has been developed that allows for role-play and participatory modeling. The generalized ABM framework is also tested in two key transboundary river basins, the Mekong River basin in Southeast Asia and the Niger River basin in West Africa, where water uses for ecosystem health compete with growing human demands on food and energy resources. We present modeling results for crop production, energy generation and violation of eco-hydrological indicators at both the agent and basin-wide levels to shed light on holistic FWEE management policies in these two basins.

Development of a dynamic framework to explain population patterns of leisure-time physical activity through agent-based modeling.

PubMed

Garcia, Leandro M T; Diez Roux, Ana V; Martins, André C R; Yang, Yong; Florindo, Alex A

2017-08-22

Despite the increasing body of evidences on the factors influencing leisure-time physical activity, our understanding of the mechanisms and interactions that lead to the formation and evolution of population patterns is still limited. Moreover, most frameworks in this field fail to capture dynamic processes. Our aim was to create a dynamic conceptual model depicting the interaction between key psychological attributes of individuals and main aspects of the built and social environments in which they live. This conceptual model will inform and support the development of an agent-based model aimed to explore how population patterns of LTPA in adults may emerge from the dynamic interplay between psychological traits and built and social environments. We integrated existing theories and models as well as available empirical data (both from literature reviews), and expert opinions (based on a systematic expert assessment of an intermediary version of the model). The model explicitly presents intention as the proximal determinant of leisure-time physical activity, a relationship dynamically moderated by the built environment (access, quality, and available activities) - with the strength of the moderation varying as a function of the person's intention- and influenced both by the social environment (proximal network's and community's behavior) and the person's behavior. Our conceptual model is well supported by evidence and experts' opinions and will inform the design of our agent-based model, as well as data collection and analysis of future investigations on population patterns of leisure-time physical activity among adults.

Explicit equilibria in a kinetic model of gambling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassetti, F.; Toscani, G.

2010-06-01

We introduce and discuss a nonlinear kinetic equation of Boltzmann type which describes the evolution of wealth in a pure gambling process, where the entire sum of wealths of two agents is up for gambling, and randomly shared between the agents. For this equation the analytical form of the steady states is found for various realizations of the random fraction of the sum which is shared to the agents. Among others, the exponential distribution appears as steady state in case of a uniformly distributed random fraction, while Gamma distribution appears for a random fraction which is Beta distributed. The case in which the gambling game is only conservative-in-the-mean is shown to lead to an explicit heavy tailed distribution.

Acting to gain information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenchein, Stanley J.; Burns, J. Brian; Chapman, David; Kaelbling, Leslie P.; Kahn, Philip; Nishihara, H. Keith; Turk, Matthew

1993-01-01

This report is concerned with agents that act to gain information. In previous work, we developed agent models combining qualitative modeling with real-time control. That work, however, focused primarily on actions that affect physical states of the environment. The current study extends that work by explicitly considering problems of active information-gathering and by exploring specialized aspects of information-gathering in computational perception, learning, and language. In our theoretical investigations, we analyzed agents into their perceptual and action components and identified these with elements of a state-machine model of control. The mathematical properties of each was developed in isolation and interactions were then studied. We considered the complexity dimension and the uncertainty dimension and related these to intelligent-agent design issues. We also explored active information gathering in visual processing. Working within the active vision paradigm, we developed a concept of 'minimal meaningful measurements' suitable for demand-driven vision. We then developed and tested an architecture for ongoing recognition and interpretation of visual information. In the area of information gathering through learning, we explored techniques for coping with combinatorial complexity. We also explored information gathering through explicit linguistic action by considering the nature of conversational rules, coordination, and situated communication behavior.

A New Model for Self-organized Dynamics and Its Flocking Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motsch, Sebastien; Tadmor, Eitan

2011-09-01

We introduce a model for self-organized dynamics which, we argue, addresses several drawbacks of the celebrated Cucker-Smale (C-S) model. The proposed model does not only take into account the distance between agents, but instead, the influence between agents is scaled in term of their relative distance. Consequently, our model does not involve any explicit dependence on the number of agents; only their geometry in phase space is taken into account. The use of relative distances destroys the symmetry property of the original C-S model, which was the key for the various recent studies of C-S flocking behavior. To this end, we introduce here a new framework to analyze the phenomenon of flocking for a rather general class of dynamical systems, which covers systems with non-symmetric influence matrices. In particular, we analyze the flocking behavior of the proposed model as well as other strongly asymmetric models with "leaders". The methodology presented in this paper, based on the notion of active sets, carries over from the particle to kinetic and hydrodynamic descriptions. In particular, we discuss the hydrodynamic formulation of our proposed model, and prove its unconditional flocking for slowly decaying influence functions.

A method for modeling oxygen diffusion in an agent-based model with application to host-pathogen infection

DOE PAGES

Plimpton, Steven J.; Sershen, Cheryl L.; May, Elebeoba E.

2015-01-01

This paper describes a method for incorporating a diffusion field modeling oxygen usage and dispersion in a multi-scale model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection mediated granuloma formation. We implemented this method over a floating-point field to model oxygen dynamics in host tissue during chronic phase response and Mtb persistence. The method avoids the requirement of satisfying the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) condition, which is necessary in implementing the explicit version of the finite-difference method, but imposes an impractical bound on the time step. Instead, diffusion is modeled by a matrix-based, steady state approximate solution to the diffusion equation. Moreover, presented in figuremore » 1 is the evolution of the diffusion profiles of a containment granuloma over time.« less

Micro-foundations for macroeconomics: New set-up based on statistical physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshikawa, Hiroshi

2016-12-01

Modern macroeconomics is built on "micro foundations." Namely, optimization of micro agent such as consumer and firm is explicitly analyzed in model. Toward this goal, standard model presumes "the representative" consumer/firm, and analyzes its behavior in detail. However, the macroeconomy consists of 107 consumers and 106 firms. For the purpose of analyzing such macro system, it is meaningless to pursue the micro behavior in detail. In this respect, there is no essential difference between economics and physics. The method of statistical physics can be usefully applied to the macroeconomy, and provides Keynesian economics with correct micro-foundations.

Software agents for the dissemination of remote terrestrial sensing data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Toomey, Christopher N.; Simoudis, Evangelos; Johnson, Raymond W.; Mark, William S.

1994-01-01

Remote terrestrial sensing (RTS) data is constantly being collected from a variety of space-based and earth-based sensors. The collected data, and especially 'value-added' analyses of the data, are finding growing application for commercial, government, and scientific purposes. The scale of this data collection and analysis is truly enormous; e.g., by 1995, the amount of data available in just one sector, NASA space science, will reach 5 petabytes. Moreover, the amount of data, and the value of analyzing the data, are expected to increase dramatically as new satellites and sensors become available (e.g., NASA's Earth Observing System satellites). Lockheed and other companies are beginning to provide data and analysis commercially. A critical issue for the exploitation of collected data is the dissemination of data and value-added analyses to a diverse and widely distributed customer base. Customers must be able to use their computational environment (eventually the National Information Infrastructure) to obtain timely and complete information, without having to know the details of where the relevant data resides and how it is accessed. Customers must be able to routinely use standard, widely available (and, therefore, low cost) analyses, while also being able to readily create on demand highly customized analyses to make crucial decisions. The diversity of user needs creates a difficult software problem: how can users easily state their needs, while the computational environment assumes the responsibility of finding (or creating) relevant information, and then delivering the results in a form that users understand? A software agent is a self-contained, active software module that contains an explicit representation of its operational knowledge. This explicit representation allows agents to examine their own capabilities in order to modify their goals to meet changing needs and to take advantage of dynamic opportunities. In addition, the explicit representation allows agents to advertize their capabilities and results to other agents, thereby allowing the collection of agents to reuse each others work.

Modelling and multi-parametric control for delivery of anaesthetic agents.

PubMed

Dua, Pinky; Dua, Vivek; Pistikopoulos, Efstratios N

2010-06-01

This article presents model predictive controllers (MPCs) and multi-parametric model-based controllers for delivery of anaesthetic agents. The MPC can take into account constraints on drug delivery rates and state of the patient but requires solving an optimization problem at regular time intervals. The multi-parametric controller has all the advantages of the MPC and does not require repetitive solution of optimization problem for its implementation. This is achieved by obtaining the optimal drug delivery rates as a set of explicit functions of the state of the patient. The derivation of the controllers relies on using detailed models of the system. A compartmental model for the delivery of three drugs for anaesthesia is developed. The key feature of this model is that mean arterial pressure, cardiac output and unconsciousness of the patient can be simultaneously regulated. This is achieved by using three drugs: dopamine (DP), sodium nitroprusside (SNP) and isoflurane. A number of dynamic simulation experiments are carried out for the validation of the model. The model is then used for the design of model predictive and multi-parametric controllers, and the performance of the controllers is analyzed.

Compartmental and Spatial Rule-Based Modeling with Virtual Cell.

PubMed

Blinov, Michael L; Schaff, James C; Vasilescu, Dan; Moraru, Ion I; Bloom, Judy E; Loew, Leslie M

2017-10-03

In rule-based modeling, molecular interactions are systematically specified in the form of reaction rules that serve as generators of reactions. This provides a way to account for all the potential molecular complexes and interactions among multivalent or multistate molecules. Recently, we introduced rule-based modeling into the Virtual Cell (VCell) modeling framework, permitting graphical specification of rules and merger of networks generated automatically (using the BioNetGen modeling engine) with hand-specified reaction networks. VCell provides a number of ordinary differential equation and stochastic numerical solvers for single-compartment simulations of the kinetic systems derived from these networks, and agent-based network-free simulation of the rules. In this work, compartmental and spatial modeling of rule-based models has been implemented within VCell. To enable rule-based deterministic and stochastic spatial simulations and network-free agent-based compartmental simulations, the BioNetGen and NFSim engines were each modified to support compartments. In the new rule-based formalism, every reactant and product pattern and every reaction rule are assigned locations. We also introduce the rule-based concept of molecular anchors. This assures that any species that has a molecule anchored to a predefined compartment will remain in this compartment. Importantly, in addition to formulation of compartmental models, this now permits VCell users to seamlessly connect reaction networks derived from rules to explicit geometries to automatically generate a system of reaction-diffusion equations. These may then be simulated using either the VCell partial differential equations deterministic solvers or the Smoldyn stochastic simulator. Copyright © 2017 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Environmental Sustainability and Effects on Urban Micro Region using Agent-Based Modeling of Urbanisation in Select Major Indian Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aithal, B. H.

2015-12-01

Abstract: Urbanisation has gained momentum with globalization in India. Policy decisions to set up commercial, industrial hubs have fuelled large scale migration, added with population upsurge has contributed to the fast growing urban region that needs to be monitored in order to design sustainable urban cities. Unplanned urbanization have resulted in the growth of peri-urban region referred to as urban sprawl, are often devoid of basic amenities and infrastructure leading to large scale environmental problems that are evident. Remote sensing data acquired through space borne sensors at regular interval helps in understanding urban dynamics aided by Geoinformatics which has proved very effective in mapping and monitoring for sustainable urban planning. Cellular automata (CA) is a robust approach for the spatially explicit simulation of land-use land cover dynamics. CA uses rules, states, conditions that are vital factors in modelling urbanisation. This communication effectively introduces simulation assistances of CA with the agent based modelling supported by its fuzzy characteristics and weightages through analytical hierarchal process (AHP). This has been done considering perceived agents such as industries, natural resource etc. Respective agent's role in development of a particular regions into an urban area has been examined with weights and its influence of each of these agents based on its characteristics functions. Validation was performed obtaining a high kappa coefficient indicating the quality and the allocation performance of the model & validity of the model to predict future projections. The prediction using the proposed model was performed for 2030. Further environmental sustainability of each of these cities are explored such as water features, environment, greenhouse gas emissions, effects on human human health etc., Modeling suggests trend of various land use classes transformation with the spurt in urban expansions based on specific regions and policies providing a visual spatial information to both urban planners and city managers. Further environmental sustainability assessment indicates dwindling natural resources and increase in thermal discomfort to the living population thereby indicating need for balanced and planned development.

The Evolution of Cooperation in Managed Groundwater Systems: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castilla Rho, J. C.; Mariethoz, G.; Rojas, R. F.; Andersen, M. S.; Kelly, B. F.; Holley, C.

2014-12-01

Human interactions with groundwater systems often exhibit complex features that hinder the sustainable management of the resource. This leads to costly and persistent conflicts over groundwater at the catchment scale. One possible way to address these conflicts is by gaining a better understanding of how social and groundwater dynamics coevolve using agent-based models (ABM). Such models allow exploring 'bottom-up' solutions (i.e., self-organised governance systems), where the behaviour of individual agents (e.g., farmers) results in the emergence of mutual cooperation among groundwater users. There is significant empirical evidence indicating that this kind of 'bottom-up' approach may lead to more enduring and sustainable outcomes, compared to conventional 'top-down' strategies such as centralized control and water right schemes (Ostrom 1990). New modelling tools are needed to study these concepts systematically and efficiently. Our model uses a conceptual framework to study cooperation and the emergence of social norms as initially proposed by Axelrod (1986), which we adapted to groundwater management. We developed an ABM that integrates social mechanisms and the physics of subsurface flow. The model explicitly represents feedback between groundwater conditions and social dynamics, capturing the spatial structure of these interactions and the potential effects on cooperation levels in an agricultural setting. Using this model, we investigate a series of mechanisms that may trigger norms supporting cooperative strategies, which can be sustained and become stable over time. For example, farmers in a self-monitoring community can be more efficient at achieving the objective of sustainable groundwater use than government-imposed regulation. Our coupled model thus offers a platform for testing new schemes promoting cooperation and improved resource use, which can be used as a basis for policy design. Importantly, we hope to raise awareness of agent-based modelling as a new tool for studying complex human-groundwater systems.

Experimental oligopolies modeling: A dynamic approach based on heterogeneous behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerboni Baiardi, Lorenzo; Naimzada, Ahmad K.

2018-05-01

In the rank of behavioral rules, imitation-based heuristics has received special attention in economics (see [14] and [12]). In particular, imitative behavior is considered in order to understand the evidences arising in experimental oligopolies which reveal that the Cournot-Nash equilibrium does not emerge as unique outcome and show that an important component of the production at the competitive level is observed (see e.g.[1,3,9] or [7,10]). By considering the pioneering groundbreaking approach of [2], we build a dynamical model of linear oligopolies where heterogeneous decision mechanisms of players are made explicit. In particular, we consider two different types of quantity setting players characterized by different decision mechanisms that coexist and operate simultaneously: agents that adaptively adjust their choices towards the direction that increases their profit are embedded with imitator agents. The latter ones use a particular form of proportional imitation rule that considers the awareness about the presence of strategic interactions. It is noteworthy that the Cournot-Nash outcome is a stationary state of our models. Our thesis is that the chaotic dynamics arousing from a dynamical model, where heterogeneous players are considered, are capable to qualitatively reproduce the outcomes of experimental oligopolies.

AST: Activity-Security-Trust driven modeling of time varying networks.

PubMed

Wang, Jian; Xu, Jiake; Liu, Yanheng; Deng, Weiwen

2016-02-18

Network modeling is a flexible mathematical structure that enables to identify statistical regularities and structural principles hidden in complex systems. The majority of recent driving forces in modeling complex networks are originated from activity, in which an activity potential of a time invariant function is introduced to identify agents' interactions and to construct an activity-driven model. However, the new-emerging network evolutions are already deeply coupled with not only the explicit factors (e.g. activity) but also the implicit considerations (e.g. security and trust), so more intrinsic driving forces behind should be integrated into the modeling of time varying networks. The agents undoubtedly seek to build a time-dependent trade-off among activity, security, and trust in generating a new connection to another. Thus, we reasonably propose the Activity-Security-Trust (AST) driven model through synthetically considering the explicit and implicit driving forces (e.g. activity, security, and trust) underlying the decision process. AST-driven model facilitates to more accurately capture highly dynamical network behaviors and figure out the complex evolution process, allowing a profound understanding of the effects of security and trust in driving network evolution, and improving the biases induced by only involving activity representations in analyzing the dynamical processes.

Learning Natural Selection in 4th Grade with Multi-Agent-Based Computational Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickes, Amanda Catherine; Sengupta, Pratim

2013-06-01

In this paper, we investigate how elementary school students develop multi-level explanations of population dynamics in a simple predator-prey ecosystem, through scaffolded interactions with a multi-agent-based computational model (MABM). The term "agent" in an MABM indicates individual computational objects or actors (e.g., cars), and these agents obey simple rules assigned or manipulated by the user (e.g., speeding up, slowing down, etc.). It is the interactions between these agents, based on the rules assigned by the user, that give rise to emergent, aggregate-level behavior (e.g., formation and movement of the traffic jam). Natural selection is such an emergent phenomenon, which has been shown to be challenging for novices (K16 students) to understand. Whereas prior research on learning evolutionary phenomena with MABMs has typically focused on high school students and beyond, we investigate how elementary students (4th graders) develop multi-level explanations of some introductory aspects of natural selection—species differentiation and population change—through scaffolded interactions with an MABM that simulates predator-prey dynamics in a simple birds-butterflies ecosystem. We conducted a semi-clinical interview based study with ten participants, in which we focused on the following: a) identifying the nature of learners' initial interpretations of salient events or elements of the represented phenomena, b) identifying the roles these interpretations play in the development of their multi-level explanations, and c) how attending to different levels of the relevant phenomena can make explicit different mechanisms to the learners. In addition, our analysis also shows that although there were differences between high- and low-performing students (in terms of being able to explain population-level behaviors) in the pre-test, these differences disappeared in the post-test.

Advancing reservoir operation description in physically based hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, Daniela; Giudici, Federico; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

2016-04-01

Last decades have seen significant advances in our capacity of characterizing and reproducing hydrological processes within physically based models. Yet, when the human component is considered (e.g. reservoirs, water distribution systems), the associated decisions are generally modeled with very simplistic rules, which might underperform in reproducing the actual operators' behaviour on a daily or sub-daily basis. For example, reservoir operations are usually described by a target-level rule curve, which represents the level that the reservoir should track during normal operating conditions. The associated release decision is determined by the current state of the reservoir relative to the rule curve. This modeling approach can reasonably reproduce the seasonal water volume shift due to reservoir operation. Still, it cannot capture more complex decision making processes in response, e.g., to the fluctuations of energy prices and demands, the temporal unavailability of power plants or varying amount of snow accumulated in the basin. In this work, we link a physically explicit hydrological model with detailed hydropower behavioural models describing the decision making process by the dam operator. In particular, we consider two categories of behavioural models: explicit or rule-based behavioural models, where reservoir operating rules are empirically inferred from observational data, and implicit or optimization based behavioural models, where, following a normative economic approach, the decision maker is represented as a rational agent maximising a utility function. We compare these two alternate modelling approaches on the real-world water system of Lake Como catchment in the Italian Alps. The water system is characterized by the presence of 18 artificial hydropower reservoirs generating almost 13% of the Italian hydropower production. Results show to which extent the hydrological regime in the catchment is affected by different behavioural models and reservoir operating strategies.

CDPOP: A spatially explicit cost distance population genetics program

Treesearch

Erin L. Landguth; S. A. Cushman

2010-01-01

Spatially explicit simulation of gene flow in complex landscapes is essential to explain observed population responses and provide a foundation for landscape genetics. To address this need, we wrote a spatially explicit, individual-based population genetics model (CDPOP). The model implements individual-based population modelling with Mendelian inheritance and k-allele...

Emergence of clustering in an acquaintance model without homophily

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhat, Uttam; Krapivsky, P. L.; Redner, S.

2014-11-01

We introduce an agent-based acquaintance model in which social links are created by processes in which there is no explicit homophily. In spite of the homogeneous nature of the social interactions, highly-clustered social networks can arise. The crucial feature of our model is that of variable transitive interactions. Namely, when an agent introduces two unconnected friends, the rate at which a connection actually occurs between them depends on the number of their mutual acquaintances. As this transitive interaction rate is varied, the social network undergoes a dramatic clustering transition. Close to the transition, the network consists of a collection of well-defined communities. As a function of time, the network can also undergo an incomplete gelation transition, in which the gel, or giant cluster, does not constitute the entire network, even at infinite time. Some of the clustering properties of our model also arise, but in a more gradual manner, in Facebook networks. Finally, we discuss a more realistic variant of our original model in which network realizations can be constructed that quantitatively match Facebook networks.

Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan; Russell A. Parsons; Ian D. Davies; Karen J. King; Chao Li; Ross A. Bradstock; Malcolm Gill

2013-01-01

An assessment of the relative importance of vegetation change and disturbance as agents of landscape change under current and future climates would (1) provide insight into the controls of landscape dynamics, (2) help inform the design and development of coarse scale spatially explicit ecosystem models such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), and (3) guide...

An agent-based model of cattle grazing toxic Geyer's larkspur.

PubMed

Jablonski, Kevin E; Boone, Randall B; Meiman, Paul J

2018-01-01

By killing cattle and otherwise complicating management, the many species of larkspur (Delphinium spp.) present a serious, intractable, and complex challenge to livestock grazing management in the western United States. Among the many obstacles to improving our understanding of cattle-larkspur dynamics has been the difficulty of testing different grazing management strategies in the field, as the risk of dead animals is too great. Agent-based models (ABMs) provide an effective method of testing alternate management strategies without risk to livestock. ABMs are especially useful for modeling complex systems such as livestock grazing management, and allow for realistic bottom-up encoding of cattle behavior. Here, we introduce a spatially-explicit, behavior-based ABM of cattle grazing in a pasture with a dangerous amount of Geyer's larkspur (D. geyeri). This model tests the role of herd cohesion and stocking density in larkspur intake, finds that both are key drivers of larkspur-induced toxicosis, and indicates that alteration of these factors within realistic bounds can mitigate risk. Crucially, the model points to herd cohesion, which has received little attention in the discipline, as playing an important role in lethal acute toxicosis. As the first ABM to model grazing behavior at realistic scales, this study also demonstrates the tremendous potential of ABMs to illuminate grazing management dynamics, including fundamental aspects of livestock behavior amidst ecological heterogeneity.

A New Method of Comparing Forcing Agents in Climate Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravitz, Benjamin S.; MacMartin, Douglas; Rasch, Philip J.

We describe a new method of comparing different climate forcing agents (e.g., CO2, CH4, and solar irradiance) that avoids many of the ambiguities introduced by temperature-related climate feedbacks. This is achieved by introducing an explicit feedback loop external to the climate model that adjusts one forcing agent to balance another while keeping global mean surface temperature constant. Compared to current approaches, this method has two main advantages: (i) the need to define radiative forcing is bypassed and (ii) by maintaining roughly constant global mean temperature, the effects of state dependence on internal feedback strengths are minimized. We demonstrate this approachmore » for several different forcing agents and derive the relationships between these forcing agents in two climate models; comparisons between forcing agents are highly linear in concordance with predicted functional forms. Transitivity of the relationships between the forcing agents appears to hold within a wide range of forcing. The relationships between the forcing agents obtained from this method are consistent across both models but differ from relationships that would be obtained from calculations of radiative forcing, highlighting the importance of controlling for surface temperature feedback effects when separating radiative forcing and climate response.« less

Delay-dependent coupling for a multi-agent LTI consensus system with inter-agent delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiao, Wei; Sipahi, Rifat

2014-01-01

Delay-dependent coupling (DDC) is considered in this paper in a broadly studied linear time-invariant multi-agent consensus system in which agents communicate with each other under homogeneous delays, while attempting to reach consensus. The coupling among the agents is designed here as an explicit parameter of this delay, allowing couplings to autonomously adapt based on the delay value, and in order to guarantee stability and a certain degree of robustness in the network despite the destabilizing effect of delay. Design procedures, analysis of convergence speed of consensus, comprehensive numerical studies for the case of time-varying delay, and limitations are presented.

Inequity aversion and the evolution of cooperation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Asrar; Karlapalem, Kamalakar

2014-02-01

Evolution of cooperation is a widely studied problem in biology, social science, economics, and artificial intelligence. Most of the existing approaches that explain cooperation rely on some notion of direct or indirect reciprocity. These reciprocity based models assume agents recognize their partner and know their previous interactions, which requires advanced cognitive abilities. In this paper we are interested in developing a model that produces cooperation without requiring any explicit memory of previous game plays. Our model is based on the notion of inequity aversion, a concept introduced within behavioral economics, whereby individuals care about payoff equality in outcomes. Here we explore the effect of using income inequality to guide partner selection and interaction. We study our model by considering both the well-mixed and the spatially structured population and present the conditions under which cooperation becomes dominant. Our results support the hypothesis that inequity aversion promotes cooperative relationship among nonkin.

Inequity aversion and the evolution of cooperation.

PubMed

Ahmed, Asrar; Karlapalem, Kamalakar

2014-02-01

Evolution of cooperation is a widely studied problem in biology, social science, economics, and artificial intelligence. Most of the existing approaches that explain cooperation rely on some notion of direct or indirect reciprocity. These reciprocity based models assume agents recognize their partner and know their previous interactions, which requires advanced cognitive abilities. In this paper we are interested in developing a model that produces cooperation without requiring any explicit memory of previous game plays. Our model is based on the notion of inequity aversion, a concept introduced within behavioral economics, whereby individuals care about payoff equality in outcomes. Here we explore the effect of using income inequality to guide partner selection and interaction. We study our model by considering both the well-mixed and the spatially structured population and present the conditions under which cooperation becomes dominant. Our results support the hypothesis that inequity aversion promotes cooperative relationship among nonkin.

Modeling mechanical inhomogeneities in small populations of proliferating monolayers and spheroids.

PubMed

Lejeune, Emma; Linder, Christian

2018-06-01

Understanding the mechanical behavior of multicellular monolayers and spheroids is fundamental to tissue culture, organism development, and the early stages of tumor growth. Proliferating cells in monolayers and spheroids experience mechanical forces as they grow and divide and local inhomogeneities in the mechanical microenvironment can cause individual cells within the multicellular system to grow and divide at different rates. This differential growth, combined with cell division and reorganization, leads to residual stress. Multiple different modeling approaches have been taken to understand and predict the residual stresses that arise in growing multicellular systems, particularly tumor spheroids. Here, we show that by using a mechanically robust agent-based model constructed with the peridynamic framework, we gain a better understanding of residual stresses in multicellular systems as they grow from a single cell. In particular, we focus on small populations of cells (1-100 s) where population behavior is highly stochastic and prior investigation has been limited. We compare the average strain energy density of cells in monolayers and spheroids using different growth and division rules and find that, on average, cells in spheroids have a higher strain energy density than cells in monolayers. We also find that cells in the interior of a growing spheroid are, on average, in compression. Finally, we demonstrate the importance of accounting for stochastic fluctuations in the mechanical environment, particularly when the cellular response to mechanical cues is nonlinear. The results presented here serve as a starting point for both further investigation with agent-based models, and for the incorporation of major findings from agent-based models into continuum scale models when explicit representation of individual cells is not computationally feasible.

An agent-based approach to modelling the effects of extreme events on global food prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

2015-04-01

Extreme climate events such as droughts or heat waves affect agricultural production in major food producing regions and therefore can influence the price of staple foods on the world market. There is evidence that recent dramatic spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual and/or expected supply shortages. The reaction of the market to supply changes is however highly nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and export restrictions. Here we present for the first time an agent-based modelling framework that accounts, in simplified terms, for these processes and allows to estimate the reaction of world food prices to supply shocks on a short (monthly) timescale. We test the basic model using observed historical supply, demand, and price data of wheat as a major food grain. Further, we illustrate how the model can be used in conjunction with biophysical crop models to assess the effect of future changes in extreme event regimes on the volatility of food prices. In particular, the explicit representation of storage dynamics makes it possible to investigate the potentially nonlinear interaction between simultaneous extreme events in different food producing regions, or between several consecutive events in the same region, which may both occur more frequently under future global warming.

Anthropogenic habitat disturbance and the dynamics of hantavirus using remote sensing, GIS, and a spatially explicit agent-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Lina

Sin Nombre virus (SNV), a strain of hantavirus, causes hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in humans, a deadly disease with high mortality rate (>50%). The primary virus host is deer mice, and greater deer mice abundance has been shown to increase the human risk of HPS. There is a great need in understanding the nature of the virus host, its temporal and spatial dynamics, and its relation to the human population with the purpose of predicting human risk of the disease. This research studies SNV dynamics in deer mice in the Great Basin Desert of central Utah, USA using multiyear field data and integrated geospatial approaches including remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS), and a spatially explicit agent-based model. The goal is to advance our understanding of the important ecological and demographic factors that affect the dynamics of deer mouse population and SNV prevalence. The primary research question is how climate, habitat disturbance, and deer mouse demographics affect deer mouse population density, its movement, and SNV prevalence in the sagebrush habitat. The results show that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) can be good predictors of deer mouse density and the number of infected deer mice with a time lag of 1.0 to 1.3 years. This information can be very useful in predicting mouse abundance and SNV risk. The results also showed that climate, mouse density, sex, mass, and SNV infection had significant effects on deer mouse movement. The effect of habitat disturbance on mouse movement varies according to climate conditions with positive relationship in predrought condition and negative association in postdrought condition. The heavier infected deer mice moved the most. Season and disturbance alone had no significant effects. The spatial agent-based model (SABM) simulation results show that prevalence was negatively related to the disturbance levels and the sensitivity analysis showed that population density was one of the most important parameters affecting the SNV dynamics. The results also indicated that habitat disturbance could increase hantavirus transmission likely by increasing the movement and consequently contact rates. However, the model suggested that habitat disturbance had a much stronger effect on prevalence by decreasing population density than by increasing mice movement. Therefore, overall habitat disturbance reduces SNV prevalence.

Evaluation of water security in Jordan using a multi-agent, hydroeconomic model: Initial model results from the Jordan Water Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; Klassert, C. J. A.; Lachaut, T.; Selby, P. D.; Knox, S.; Gorelick, S.; Rajsekhar, D.; Tilmant, A.; Avisse, N.; Harou, J. J.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Gawel, E.; Klauer, B.; Mustafa, D.; Talozi, S.; Sigel, K.; Zhang, H.

2016-12-01

Our work focuses on development of a multi-agent, hydroeconomic model for water policy evaluation in Jordan. Jordan ranks among the most water-scarce countries in the world, a situation exacerbated due to a recent influx of refugees escaping the ongoing civil war in neighboring Syria. The modular, multi-agent model is used to evaluate interventions for enhancing Jordan's water security, integrating biophysical modules that simulate natural and engineered phenomena with human modules that represent behavior at multiple levels of decision making. The hydrologic modules are developed using spatially-distributed groundwater and surface water models, which are translated into compact simulators for efficient integration into the multi-agent model. For the multi-agent model, we explicitly account for human agency at multiple levels of decision making, with agents representing riparian, management, supplier, and water user groups. Human agents are implemented as autonomous entities in the model that make decisions in relation to one another and in response to hydrologic and socioeconomic conditions. The integrated model is programmed in Python using Pynsim, a generalizable, open-source object-oriented software framework for modeling network-based water resource systems. The modeling time periods include historical (2006-2014) and future (present-2050) time spans. For the historical runs, the model performance is validated against historical data for several observations that reflect the interacting dynamics of both the hydrologic and human components of the system. A historical counterfactual scenario is also constructed to isolate and identify the impacts of the recent Syrian civil war and refugee crisis on Jordan's water system. For the future period, model runs are conducted to evaluate potential supply, demand, and institutional interventions over a wide range of plausible climate and socioeconomic scenarios. In addition, model sensitivity analysis is conducted revealing the hydrologic and human aspects of the system that most strongly influence water security outcomes, providing insight into coupled human-water system dynamics as well as priority areas of focus for continued model improvement.

An agent-based model driven by tropical rainfall to understand the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of a chikungunya outbreak.

PubMed

Dommar, Carlos J; Lowe, Rachel; Robinson, Marguerite; Rodó, Xavier

2014-01-01

Vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, malaria and chikungunya, are increasing across their traditional ranges and continuing to infiltrate new, previously unaffected, regions. The spatio-temporal evolution of these diseases is determined by the interaction of the host and vector, which is strongly dependent on social structures and mobility patterns. We develop an agent-based model (ABM), in which each individual is explicitly represented and vector populations are linked to precipitation estimates in a tropical setting. The model is implemented on both scale-free and regular networks. The spatio-temporal transmission of chikungunya is analysed and the presence of asymptomatic silent spreaders within the population is investigated in the context of implementing travel restrictions during an outbreak. Preventing the movement of symptomatic individuals is found to be an insufficient mechanism to halt the spread of the disease, which can be readily carried to neighbouring nodes via sub-clinical individuals. Furthermore, the impact of topology structure vs. precipitation levels is assessed and precipitation is found to be the dominant factor driving spatio-temporal transmission. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How feeling betrayed affects cooperation.

PubMed

Ramazi, Pouria; Hessel, Jop; Cao, Ming

2015-01-01

For a population of interacting self-interested agents, we study how the average cooperation level is affected by some individuals' feelings of being betrayed and guilt. We quantify these feelings as adjusted payoffs in asymmetric games, where for different emotions, the payoff matrix takes the structure of that of either a prisoner's dilemma or a snowdrift game. Then we analyze the evolution of cooperation in a well-mixed population of agents, each of whom is associated with such a payoff matrix. At each time-step, an agent is randomly chosen from the population to update her strategy based on the myopic best-response update rule. According to the simulations, decreasing the feeling of being betrayed in a portion of agents does not necessarily increase the level of cooperation in the population. However, this resistance of the population against low-betrayal-level agents is effective only up to some extend that is explicitly determined by the payoff matrices and the number of agents associated with these matrices. Two other models are also considered where the betrayal factor of an agent fluctuates as a function of the number of cooperators and defectors that she encounters. Unstable behaviors are observed for the level of cooperation in these cases; however, we show that one can tune the parameters in the function to make the whole population become cooperative or defective.

Predicted range expansion of Chinese tallow tree (Triadica sebifera) in forestlands of the southern United States

Treesearch

Hsiao-Hsuan Wang; William Grant; Todd Swannack; Jianbang Gan; William Rogers; Tomasz Koralewski; James Miller; John W. Taylor Jr.

2011-01-01

We present an integrated approach for predicting future range expansion of an invasive species (Chinese tallow tree) that incorporates statistical forecasting and analytical techniques within a spatially explicit, agent-based, simulation framework.

Cognitive conflict without explicit conflict monitoring in a dynamical agent.

PubMed

Ward, Robert; Ward, Ronnie

2006-11-01

We examine mechanisms for resolving cognitive conflict in an embodied, situated, and dynamic agent, developed through an evolutionary learning process. The agent was required to solve problems of response conflict in a dual-target "catching" task, focusing response on one of the targets while ignoring the other. Conflict in the agent was revealed at the behavioral level in terms of increased latencies to the second target. This behavioral interference was correlated to peak violations of the network's stable state equation. At the level of the agent's neural network, peak violations were also correlated to periods of disagreement in source inputs to the agent's motor effectors. Despite observing conflict at these numerous levels, we did not find any explicit conflict monitoring mechanisms within the agent. We instead found evidence of a distributed conflict management system, characterized by competitive sources within the network. In contrast to the conflict monitoring hypothesis [Botvinick, M. M., Braver, T. S., Barch, D. M., Carter, C. S., & Cohen, J. D. (2001). Conflict monitoring and cognitive control. Psychological Review, 108(3), 624-652], this agent demonstrates that resolution of cognitive conflict does not require explicit conflict monitoring. We consider the implications of our results for the conflict monitoring hypothesis.

Brain activation for spontaneous and explicit false belief tasks overlaps: new fMRI evidence on belief processing and violation of expectation.

PubMed

Bardi, Lara; Desmet, Charlotte; Nijhof, Annabel; Wiersema, Jan R; Brass, Marcel

2017-03-01

There is extensive discussion on whether spontaneous and explicit forms of ToM are based on the same cognitive/neural mechanisms or rather reflect qualitatively different processes. For the first time, we analyzed the BOLD signal for false belief processing by directly comparing spontaneous and explicit ToM task versions. In both versions, participants watched videos of a scene including an agent who acquires a true or false belief about the location of an object (belief formation phase). At the end of the movies (outcome phase), participants had to react to the presence of the object. During the belief formation phase, greater activity was found for false vs true belief trials in the right posterior parietal cortex. The ROI analysis of the right temporo-parietal junction (TPJ), confirmed this observation. Moreover, the anterior medial prefrontal cortex (aMPFC) was active during the outcome phase, being sensitive to violation of both the participant's and agent's expectations about the location of the object. Activity in the TPJ and aMPFC was not modulated by the spontaneous/explicit task. Overall, these data show that neural mechanisms for spontaneous and explicit ToM overlap. Interestingly, a dissociation between TPJ and aMPFC for belief tracking and outcome evaluation, respectively, was also found. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Nash Equilibrium of Social-Learning Agents in a Restless Multiarmed Bandit Game.

PubMed

Nakayama, Kazuaki; Hisakado, Masato; Mori, Shintaro

2017-05-16

We study a simple model for social-learning agents in a restless multiarmed bandit (rMAB). The bandit has one good arm that changes to a bad one with a certain probability. Each agent stochastically selects one of the two methods, random search (individual learning) or copying information from other agents (social learning), using which he/she seeks the good arm. Fitness of an agent is the probability to know the good arm in the steady state of the agent system. In this model, we explicitly construct the unique Nash equilibrium state and show that the corresponding strategy for each agent is an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) in the sense of Thomas. It is shown that the fitness of an agent with ESS is superior to that of an asocial learner when the success probability of social learning is greater than a threshold determined from the probability of success of individual learning, the probability of change of state of the rMAB, and the number of agents. The ESS Nash equilibrium is a solution to Rogers' paradox.

Increasing nest predation will be insufficient to maintain polar bear body condition in the face of sea ice loss.

PubMed

Dey, Cody J; Richardson, Evan; McGeachy, David; Iverson, Samuel A; Gilchrist, Hugh G; Semeniuk, Christina A D

2017-05-01

Climate change can influence interspecific interactions by differentially affecting species-specific phenology. In seasonal ice environments, there is evidence that polar bear predation of Arctic bird eggs is increasing because of earlier sea ice breakup, which forces polar bears into nearshore terrestrial environments where Arctic birds are nesting. Because polar bears can consume a large number of nests before becoming satiated, and because they can swim between island colonies, they could have dramatic influences on seabird and sea duck reproductive success. However, it is unclear whether nest foraging can provide an energetic benefit to polar bear populations, especially given the capacity of bird populations to redistribute in response to increasing predation pressure. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit agent-based model of the predator-prey relationship between polar bears and common eiders, a common and culturally important bird species for northern peoples. Our model is composed of two types of agents (polar bear agents and common eider hen agents) whose movements and decision heuristics are based on species-specific bioenergetic and behavioral ecological principles, and are influenced by historical and extrapolated sea ice conditions. Our model reproduces empirical findings that polar bear predation of bird nests is increasing and predicts an accelerating relationship between advancing ice breakup dates and the number of nests depredated. Despite increases in nest predation, our model predicts that polar bear body condition during the ice-free period will continue to decline. Finally, our model predicts that common eider nests will become more dispersed and will move closer to the mainland in response to increasing predation, possibly increasing their exposure to land-based predators and influencing the livelihood of local people that collect eider eggs and down. These results show that predator-prey interactions can have nonlinear responses to changes in climate and provides important predictions of ecological change in Arctic ecosystems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bee++: An Object-Oriented, Agent-Based Simulator for Honey Bee Colonies

PubMed Central

Betti, Matthew; LeClair, Josh; Wahl, Lindi M.; Zamir, Mair

2017-01-01

We present a model and associated simulation package (www.beeplusplus.ca) to capture the natural dynamics of a honey bee colony in a spatially-explicit landscape, with temporally-variable, weather-dependent parameters. The simulation tracks bees of different ages and castes, food stores within the colony, pollen and nectar sources and the spatial position of individual foragers outside the hive. We track explicitly the intake of pesticides in individual bees and their ability to metabolize these toxins, such that the impact of sub-lethal doses of pesticides can be explored. Moreover, pathogen populations (in particular, Nosema apis, Nosema cerenae and Varroa mites) have been included in the model and may be introduced at any time or location. The ability to study interactions among pesticides, climate, biodiversity and pathogens in this predictive framework should prove useful to a wide range of researchers studying honey bee populations. To this end, the simulation package is written in open source, object-oriented code (C++) and can be easily modified by the user. Here, we demonstrate the use of the model by exploring the effects of sub-lethal pesticide exposure on the flight behaviour of foragers. PMID:28287445

Tracking dynamic team activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tambe, M.

1996-12-31

AI researchers are striving to build complex multi-agent worlds with intended applications ranging from the RoboCup robotic soccer tournaments, to interactive virtual theatre, to large-scale real-world battlefield simulations. Agent tracking - monitoring other agent`s actions and inferring their higher-level goals and intentions - is a central requirement in such worlds. While previous work has mostly focused on tracking individual agents, this paper goes beyond by focusing on agent teams. Team tracking poses the challenge of tracking a team`s joint goals and plans. Dynamic, real-time environments add to the challenge, as ambiguities have to be resolved in real-time. The central hypothesismore » underlying the present work is that an explicit team-oriented perspective enables effective team tracking. This hypothesis is instantiated using the model tracing technology employed in tracking individual agents. Thus, to track team activities, team models are put to service. Team models are a concrete application of the joint intentions framework and enable an agent to track team activities, regardless of the agent`s being a collaborative participant or a non-participant in the team. To facilitate real-time ambiguity resolution with team models: (i) aspects of tracking are cast as constraint satisfaction problems to exploit constraint propagation techniques; and (ii) a cost minimality criterion is applied to constrain tracking search. Empirical results from two separate tasks in real-world, dynamic environments one collaborative and one competitive - are provided.« less

Learning in engineered multi-agent systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menon, Anup

Consider the problem of maximizing the total power produced by a wind farm. Due to aerodynamic interactions between wind turbines, each turbine maximizing its individual power---as is the case in present-day wind farms---does not lead to optimal farm-level power capture. Further, there are no good models to capture the said aerodynamic interactions, rendering model based optimization techniques ineffective. Thus, model-free distributed algorithms are needed that help turbines adapt their power production on-line so as to maximize farm-level power capture. Motivated by such problems, the main focus of this dissertation is a distributed model-free optimization problem in the context of multi-agent systems. The set-up comprises of a fixed number of agents, each of which can pick an action and observe the value of its individual utility function. An individual's utility function may depend on the collective action taken by all agents. The exact functional form (or model) of the agent utility functions, however, are unknown; an agent can only measure the numeric value of its utility. The objective of the multi-agent system is to optimize the welfare function (i.e. sum of the individual utility functions). Such a collaborative task requires communications between agents and we allow for the possibility of such inter-agent communications. We also pay attention to the role played by the pattern of such information exchange on certain aspects of performance. We develop two algorithms to solve this problem. The first one, engineered Interactive Trial and Error Learning (eITEL) algorithm, is based on a line of work in the Learning in Games literature and applies when agent actions are drawn from finite sets. While in a model-free setting, we introduce a novel qualitative graph-theoretic framework to encode known directed interactions of the form "which agents' action affect which others' payoff" (interaction graph). We encode explicit inter-agent communications in a directed graph (communication graph) and, under certain conditions, prove convergence of agent joint action (under eITEL) to the welfare optimizing set. The main condition requires that the union of interaction and communication graphs be strongly connected; thus the algorithm combines an implicit form of communication (via interactions through utility functions) with explicit inter-agent communications to achieve the given collaborative goal. This work has kinship with certain evolutionary computation techniques such as Simulated Annealing; the algorithm steps are carefully designed such that it describes an ergodic Markov chain with a stationary distribution that has support over states where agent joint actions optimize the welfare function. The main analysis tool is perturbed Markov chains and results of broader interest regarding these are derived as well. The other algorithm, Collaborative Extremum Seeking (CES), uses techniques from extremum seeking control to solve the problem when agent actions are drawn from the set of real numbers. In this case, under the assumption of existence of a local minimizer for the welfare function and a connected undirected communication graph between agents, a result regarding convergence of joint action to a small neighborhood of a local optimizer of the welfare function is proved. Since extremum seeking control uses a simultaneous gradient estimation-descent scheme, gradient information available in the continuous action space formulation is exploited by the CES algorithm to yield improved convergence speeds. The effectiveness of this algorithm for the wind farm power maximization problem is evaluated via simulations. Lastly, we turn to a different question regarding role of the information exchange pattern on performance of distributed control systems by means of a case study for the vehicle platooning problem. In the vehicle platoon control problem, the objective is to design distributed control laws for individual vehicles in a platoon (or a road-train) that regulate inter-vehicle distances at a specified safe value while the entire platoon follows a leader-vehicle. While most of the literature on the problem deals with some inadequacy in control performance when the information exchange is of the nearest neighbor-type, we consider an arbitrary graph serving as information exchange pattern and derive a relationship between how a certain indicator of control performance is related to the information pattern. Such analysis helps in understanding qualitative features of the `right' information pattern for this problem.

Rigorous Results for the Distribution of Money on Connected Graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanchier, Nicolas; Reed, Stephanie

2018-05-01

This paper is concerned with general spatially explicit versions of three stochastic models for the dynamics of money that have been introduced and studied numerically by statistical physicists: the uniform reshuffling model, the immediate exchange model and the model with saving propensity. All three models consist of systems of economical agents that consecutively engage in pairwise monetary transactions. Computer simulations performed in the physics literature suggest that, when the number of agents and the average amount of money per agent are large, the limiting distribution of money as time goes to infinity approaches the exponential distribution for the first model, the gamma distribution with shape parameter two for the second model and a distribution similar but not exactly equal to a gamma distribution whose shape parameter depends on the saving propensity for the third model. The main objective of this paper is to give rigorous proofs of these conjectures and also extend these conjectures to generalizations of the first two models and a variant of the third model that include local rather than global interactions, i.e., instead of choosing the two interacting agents uniformly at random from the system, the agents are located on the vertex set of a general connected graph and can only interact with their neighbors.

The mass media destabilizes the cultural homogenous regime in Axelrod's model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peres, Lucas R.; Fontanari, José F.

2010-02-01

An important feature of Axelrod's model for culture dissemination or social influence is the emergence of many multicultural absorbing states, despite the fact that the local rules that specify the agents interactions are explicitly designed to decrease the cultural differences between agents. Here we re-examine the problem of introducing an external, global interaction—the mass media—in the rules of Axelrod's model: in addition to their nearest neighbors, each agent has a certain probability p to interact with a virtual neighbor whose cultural features are fixed from the outset. Most surprisingly, this apparently homogenizing effect actually increases the cultural diversity of the population. We show that, contrary to previous claims in the literature, even a vanishingly small value of p is sufficient to destabilize the homogeneous regime for very large lattice sizes.

Land Use Change on Household Farms in the Ecuadorian Amazon: Design and Implementation of an Agent-Based Model.

PubMed

Mena, Carlos F; Walsh, Stephen J; Frizzelle, Brian G; Xiaozheng, Yao; Malanson, George P

2011-01-01

This paper describes the design and implementation of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) used to simulate land use change on household farms in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). The ABM simulates decision-making processes at the household level that is examined through a longitudinal, socio-economic and demographic survey that was conducted in 1990 and 1999. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to establish spatial relationships between farms and their environment, while classified Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery is used to set initial land use/land cover conditions for the spatial simulation, assess from-to land use/land cover change patterns, and describe trajectories of land use change at the farm and landscape levels. Results from prior studies in the NEA provide insights into the key social and ecological variables, describe human behavioral functions, and examine population-environment interactions that are linked to deforestation and agricultural extensification, population migration, and demographic change. Within the architecture of the model, agents are classified as active or passive. The model comprises four modules, i.e., initialization, demography, agriculture, and migration that operate individually, but are linked through key household processes. The main outputs of the model include a spatially-explicit representation of the land use/land cover on survey and non-survey farms and at the landscape level for each annual time-step, as well as simulated socio-economic and demographic characteristics of households and communities. The work describes the design and implementation of the model and how population-environment interactions can be addressed in a frontier setting. The paper contributes to land change science by examining important pattern-process relations, advocating a spatial modeling approach that is capable of synthesizing fundamental relationships at the farm level, and links people and environment in complex ways.

Derivation of Markov processes that violate detailed balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Julian

2018-03-01

Time-reversal symmetry of the microscopic laws dictates that the equilibrium distribution of a stochastic process must obey the condition of detailed balance. However, cyclic Markov processes that do not admit equilibrium distributions with detailed balance are often used to model systems driven out of equilibrium by external agents. I show that for a Markov model without detailed balance, an extended Markov model can be constructed, which explicitly includes the degrees of freedom for the driving agent and satisfies the detailed balance condition. The original cyclic Markov model for the driven system is then recovered as an approximation at early times by summing over the degrees of freedom for the driving agent. I also show that the widely accepted expression for the entropy production in a cyclic Markov model is actually a time derivative of an entropy component in the extended model. Further, I present an analytic expression for the entropy component that is hidden in the cyclic Markov model.

Morphological similarities between DBM and a microeconomic model of sprawl

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caruso, Geoffrey; Vuidel, Gilles; Cavailhès, Jean; Frankhauser, Pierre; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle

2011-03-01

We present a model that simulates the growth of a metropolitan area on a 2D lattice. The model is dynamic and based on microeconomics. Households show preferences for nearby open spaces and neighbourhood density. They compete on the land market. They travel along a road network to access the CBD. A planner ensures the connectedness and maintenance of the road network. The spatial pattern of houses, green spaces and road network self-organises, emerging from agents individualistic decisions. We perform several simulations and vary residential preferences. Our results show morphologies and transition phases that are similar to Dieletric Breakdown Models (DBM). Such similarities were observed earlier by other authors, but we show here that it can be deducted from the functioning of the land market and thus explicitly connected to urban economic theory.

Towards anatomic scale agent-based modeling with a massively parallel spatially explicit general-purpose model of enteric tissue (SEGMEnT_HPC).

PubMed

Cockrell, Robert Chase; Christley, Scott; Chang, Eugene; An, Gary

2015-01-01

Perhaps the greatest challenge currently facing the biomedical research community is the ability to integrate highly detailed cellular and molecular mechanisms to represent clinical disease states as a pathway to engineer effective therapeutics. This is particularly evident in the representation of organ-level pathophysiology in terms of abnormal tissue structure, which, through histology, remains a mainstay in disease diagnosis and staging. As such, being able to generate anatomic scale simulations is a highly desirable goal. While computational limitations have previously constrained the size and scope of multi-scale computational models, advances in the capacity and availability of high-performance computing (HPC) resources have greatly expanded the ability of computational models of biological systems to achieve anatomic, clinically relevant scale. Diseases of the intestinal tract are exemplary examples of pathophysiological processes that manifest at multiple scales of spatial resolution, with structural abnormalities present at the microscopic, macroscopic and organ-levels. In this paper, we describe a novel, massively parallel computational model of the gut, the Spatially Explicitly General-purpose Model of Enteric Tissue_HPC (SEGMEnT_HPC), which extends an existing model of the gut epithelium, SEGMEnT, in order to create cell-for-cell anatomic scale simulations. We present an example implementation of SEGMEnT_HPC that simulates the pathogenesis of ileal pouchitis, and important clinical entity that affects patients following remedial surgery for ulcerative colitis.

An intelligent agent for optimal river-reservoir system management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieker, Jeffrey D.; Labadie, John W.

2012-09-01

A generalized software package is presented for developing an intelligent agent for stochastic optimization of complex river-reservoir system management and operations. Reinforcement learning is an approach to artificial intelligence for developing a decision-making agent that learns the best operational policies without the need for explicit probabilistic models of hydrologic system behavior. The agent learns these strategies experientially in a Markov decision process through observational interaction with the environment and simulation of the river-reservoir system using well-calibrated models. The graphical user interface for the reinforcement learning process controller includes numerous learning method options and dynamic displays for visualizing the adaptive behavior of the agent. As a case study, the generalized reinforcement learning software is applied to developing an intelligent agent for optimal management of water stored in the Truckee river-reservoir system of California and Nevada for the purpose of streamflow augmentation for water quality enhancement. The intelligent agent successfully learns long-term reservoir operational policies that specifically focus on mitigating water temperature extremes during persistent drought periods that jeopardize the survival of threatened and endangered fish species.

How Feeling Betrayed Affects Cooperation

PubMed Central

Ramazi, Pouria; Hessel, Jop; Cao, Ming

2015-01-01

For a population of interacting self-interested agents, we study how the average cooperation level is affected by some individuals' feelings of being betrayed and guilt. We quantify these feelings as adjusted payoffs in asymmetric games, where for different emotions, the payoff matrix takes the structure of that of either a prisoner's dilemma or a snowdrift game. Then we analyze the evolution of cooperation in a well-mixed population of agents, each of whom is associated with such a payoff matrix. At each time-step, an agent is randomly chosen from the population to update her strategy based on the myopic best-response update rule. According to the simulations, decreasing the feeling of being betrayed in a portion of agents does not necessarily increase the level of cooperation in the population. However, this resistance of the population against low-betrayal-level agents is effective only up to some extend that is explicitly determined by the payoff matrices and the number of agents associated with these matrices. Two other models are also considered where the betrayal factor of an agent fluctuates as a function of the number of cooperators and defectors that she encounters. Unstable behaviors are observed for the level of cooperation in these cases; however, we show that one can tune the parameters in the function to make the whole population become cooperative or defective. PMID:25922933

HexSim - A general purpose framework for spatially-explicit, individual-based modeling

EPA Science Inventory

HexSim is a framework for constructing spatially-explicit, individual-based computer models designed for simulating terrestrial wildlife population dynamics and interactions. HexSim is useful for a broad set of modeling applications. This talk will focus on a subset of those ap...

An agent-based model for water management and planning in the Lake Naivasha basin, Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Oel, Pieter; Mulatu, Dawit; Odongo, Vincent; Onyando, Japheth; Becht, Robert; van der Veen, Anne

2013-04-01

A variety of human and natural processes influence the ecological and economic state of the Lake Naivasha basin. The ecological wealth and recent economic developments in the area are strongly connected to Lake Naivasha which supports a rich variety of flora, mammal and bird species. Many human activities depend on clean freshwater from the lake whereas recently the freshwater availability of good quality is seriously influenced by water abstractions and the use of fertilizers in agriculture. Management alternatives include those aiming at limiting water abstractions and fertilizer use. A possible way to achieve reduced use of water and fertilizers is the introduction of Payment for Environmental Services (PES) schemes. As the Lake Naivasha basin and its population have experienced increasing pressures various disputes and disagreements have arisen about the processes responsible for the problems experienced, and the effectively of management alternatives. Beside conflicts of interest and disagreements on responsibilities there are serious factual disagreements. To share scientific knowledge on the effects of the socio-ecological system processes on the Lake Naivasha basin, tools may be used that expose information at temporal and spatial scales that are meaningful to stakeholders. In this study we use a spatially-explicit agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to depict the interactions between socio-economic and natural subsystems for supporting a more sustainable governance of the river basin resources. Agents consider alternative livelihood strategies and decide to go for the one they perceive as likely to be most profitable. Agents may predict and sense the availability of resources and also can observe economic performance achieved by neighbouring agents. Results are presented at the basin and subbasin level to provide relevant knowledge to Water Resources Users Associations which are important collective forums for water management through which PES schemes are managed.

A Regional Model for Malaria Vector Developmental Habitats Evaluated Using Explicit, Pond-Resolving Surface Hydrology Simulations.

PubMed

Asare, Ernest Ohene; Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Bomblies, Arne

2016-01-01

Dynamical malaria models can relate precipitation to the availability of vector breeding sites using simple models of surface hydrology. Here, a revised scheme is developed for the VECTRI malaria model, which is evaluated alongside the default scheme using a two year simulation by HYDREMATS, a 10 metre resolution, village-scale model that explicitly simulates individual ponds. Despite the simplicity of the two VECTRI surface hydrology parametrization schemes, they can reproduce the sub-seasonal evolution of fractional water coverage. Calibration of the model parameters is required to simulate the mean pond fraction correctly. The default VECTRI model tended to overestimate water fraction in periods subject to light rainfall events and underestimate it during periods of intense rainfall. This systematic error was improved in the revised scheme by including the a parametrization for surface run-off, such that light rainfall below the initial abstraction threshold does not contribute to ponds. After calibration of the pond model, the VECTRI model was able to simulate vector densities that compared well to the detailed agent based model contained in HYDREMATS without further parameter adjustment. Substituting local rain-gauge data with satellite-retrieved precipitation gave a reasonable approximation, raising the prospects for regional malaria simulations even in data sparse regions. However, further improvements could be made if a method can be derived to calibrate the key hydrology parameters of the pond model in each grid cell location, possibly also incorporating slope and soil texture.

A Regional Model for Malaria Vector Developmental Habitats Evaluated Using Explicit, Pond-Resolving Surface Hydrology Simulations

PubMed Central

Asare, Ernest Ohene; Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Bomblies, Arne

2016-01-01

Dynamical malaria models can relate precipitation to the availability of vector breeding sites using simple models of surface hydrology. Here, a revised scheme is developed for the VECTRI malaria model, which is evaluated alongside the default scheme using a two year simulation by HYDREMATS, a 10 metre resolution, village-scale model that explicitly simulates individual ponds. Despite the simplicity of the two VECTRI surface hydrology parametrization schemes, they can reproduce the sub-seasonal evolution of fractional water coverage. Calibration of the model parameters is required to simulate the mean pond fraction correctly. The default VECTRI model tended to overestimate water fraction in periods subject to light rainfall events and underestimate it during periods of intense rainfall. This systematic error was improved in the revised scheme by including the a parametrization for surface run-off, such that light rainfall below the initial abstraction threshold does not contribute to ponds. After calibration of the pond model, the VECTRI model was able to simulate vector densities that compared well to the detailed agent based model contained in HYDREMATS without further parameter adjustment. Substituting local rain-gauge data with satellite-retrieved precipitation gave a reasonable approximation, raising the prospects for regional malaria simulations even in data sparse regions. However, further improvements could be made if a method can be derived to calibrate the key hydrology parameters of the pond model in each grid cell location, possibly also incorporating slope and soil texture. PMID:27003834

REDD+ and climate smart agriculture in landscapes: A case study in Vietnam using companion modelling.

PubMed

Salvini, G; Ligtenberg, A; van Paassen, A; Bregt, A K; Avitabile, V; Herold, M

2016-05-01

Finding land use strategies that merge land-based climate change mitigation measures and adaptation strategies is still an open issue in climate discourse. This article explores synergies and trade-offs between REDD+, a scheme that focuses mainly on mitigation through forest conservation, with "Climate Smart Agriculture", an approach that emphasizes adaptive agriculture. We introduce a framework for ex-ante assessment of the impact of land management policies and interventions and for quantifying their impacts on land-based mitigation and adaptation goals. The framework includes a companion modelling (ComMod) process informed by interviews with policymakers, local experts and local farmers. The ComMod process consists of a Role-Playing Game with local farmers and an Agent Based Model. The game provided a participatory means to develop policy and climate change scenarios. These scenarios were then used as inputs to the Agent Based Model, a spatially explicit model to simulate landscape dynamics and the associated carbon emissions over decades. We applied the framework using as case study a community in central Vietnam, characterized by deforestation for subsistence agriculture and cultivation of acacias as a cash crop. The main findings show that the framework is useful in guiding consideration of local stakeholders' goals, needs and constraints. Additionally the framework provided beneficial information to policymakers, pointing to ways that policies might be re-designed to make them better tailored to local circumstances and therefore more effective in addressing synergistically climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new solution method for wheel/rail rolling contact.

PubMed

Yang, Jian; Song, Hua; Fu, Lihua; Wang, Meng; Li, Wei

2016-01-01

To solve the problem of wheel/rail rolling contact of nonlinear steady-state curving, a three-dimensional transient finite element (FE) model is developed by the explicit software ANSYS/LS-DYNA. To improve the solving speed and efficiency, an explicit-explicit order solution method is put forward based on analysis of the features of implicit and explicit algorithm. The solution method was first applied to calculate the pre-loading of wheel/rail rolling contact with explicit algorithm, and then the results became the initial conditions in solving the dynamic process of wheel/rail rolling contact with explicit algorithm as well. Simultaneously, the common implicit-explicit order solution method is used to solve the FE model. Results show that the explicit-explicit order solution method has faster operation speed and higher efficiency than the implicit-explicit order solution method while the solution accuracy is almost the same. Hence, the explicit-explicit order solution method is more suitable for the wheel/rail rolling contact model with large scale and high nonlinearity.

Minimizing Erosion and Agro-Pollutants Transport from Furrow Irrigated Fields to the Nearby Water Body Using Spatially-Explicit Agent Based Model and Decision Optimization Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghoveisi, H.; Al Dughaishi, U.; Kiker, G.

2017-12-01

Maintaining water quality in agricultural watersheds is a worldwide challenge, especially where furrow irrigation is being practiced. The Yakima River Basin watershed in south central Washington State, (USA) is an example of these impacted areas with elevated load of sediments and other agricultural products due to runoff from furrow-irrigated fields. Within the Yakima basin, the Granger Drain watershed (area of 75 km2) is particularly challenged in this regard with more than 400 flood-irrigated individual parcels (area of 21 km2) growing a variety of crops from maize to grapes. Alternatives for improving water quality from furrow-irrigated parcels include vegetated filter strip (VFS) implementation, furrow water application efficiency, polyacrylamide (PAM) application and irrigation scheduling. These alternatives were simulated separately and in combinations to explore potential Best Management Practices (BMPs) for runoff-related-pollution reduction in a spatially explicit, agent based modeling system (QnD:GrangerDrain). Two regulatory scenarios were tested to BMP adoption within individual parcels. A blanket-style regulatory scenario simulated a total of 60 BMP combinations implemented in all 409 furrow-irrigated parcels. A second regulatory scenario simulated the BMPs in 119 furrow-irrigated parcels designated as "hotspots" based on a standard 12 Mg ha-1 seasonal sediment load. The simulated cumulative runoff and sediment loading from all BMP alternatives were ranked using Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), specifically the Stochastic Multi-Attribute Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) method. Several BMP combinations proved successful in reducing loads below a 25 NTU (91 mg L-1) regulatory sediment concentration. The QnD:GrangerDrain simulations and subsequent MCDA ranking revealed that the BMP combinations of 5 m-VFS and high furrow water efficiency were highly ranked alternatives for both the blanket and hotspot scenarios.

Human-environment interactions and sustainable urban development: Spatial modeling and landscape prediction the case of Nang Rong town, Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varnakovida, Pariwate

It is now well-recognized that, at local, regional, and global scales, land use changes are significantly altering land cover, perhaps at an accelerating pace. Further, the world's scientific community is increasingly recognizing what, in retrospect, should have been obvious, that human behavior and agency is a critical driver of Land Cover and Land Use Change. In this research, using recently developed computer modeling procedures and a rich case study, I develop spatially-explicit model-based simulations of LULCC scenarios within the rubric of sustainability science for Nang Rong town, Thailand. The research draws heavily on recent work in geography and complexity theory. A series of scenarios were built to explore different development trajectories based upon empirically observed relationships. The development models incorporate a) history and spatial pattern of village settlement; b) road development and changing geographic accessibility; c) population; d) biophysical characteristics and e) social drivers. This research uses multi-temporal and spatially-explicit data, analytic results, and dynamic modeling approaches combined with to describe, explain, and explore LULCC as the consequences of different production theories for rural, small town urbanization in the South East Asian context. Two Agent Based models were built: 1) Settlement model and 2) Land-use model. The Settlement model suggests that new development will emerge along the existing road network especially along the major highway and in close proximity to the urban center. If the population doubles in 2021, the settlement process may inhibit development along some corridors creating low density sprawl. The Land-use model under the urban expansion scenario suggests that new settlements will occur in close proximity to the town center and roads; even though, the area is suitable for rice farming or located on a flood plain. The Land-use model under the cash-crop expansion scenario captures that new agriculture will occur on the flood plain and other areas suitable for rice farming. The Land-use model under the King's Theory scenario suggests that agriculture agents occupied more disperse lands than the cash-crops scenario. In addition, the King's Theory scenario provided more access to water surface than other scenarios and was the most sustainable development plan. These products offer a better understanding of the urban growth and LULCC at a regional scale and will potentially guide more systematic and effective resource management and policy decisions. Although this research focuses on a specific site, the methods employed are applicable to other rural regions with similar characteristics.

Agent-based modeling for the landuse change of hunter-gather societies and the impacts on biodiversity in Guyana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwamura, T.; Fragoso, J.; Lambin, E.

2012-12-01

The interactions with animals are vital to the Amerindian, indigenous people, of Rupunini savannah-forest in Guyana. Their connections extend from basic energy and protein resource to spiritual bonding through "paring" to a certain animal in the forest. We collected extensive dataset of 23 indigenous communities for 3.5 years, consisting 9900 individuals from 1307 households, as well as animal observation data in 8 transects per communities (47,000 data entries). In this presentation, our research interest is to model the driver of land use change of the indigenous communities and its impacts on the ecosystem in the Rupunini area under global change. Overarching question we would like to answer with this program is to find how and why "tipping-point" from hunting gathering society to the agricultural society occurs in the future. Secondary question is what is the implication of the change to agricultural society in terms of biodiversity and carbon stock in the area, and eventually the well-being of Rupunini people. To answer the questions regarding the society shift in agriculture activities, we built as simulation with Agent-Based Modeling (Multi Agents Simulation). We developed this simulation by using Netlogo, the programming environment specialized for spatially explicit agent-based modeling (ABM). This simulation consists of four different process in the Rupunini landscape; forest succession, animal population growth, hunting of animals, and land clearing for agriculture. All of these processes are carried out by a set of computational unit, called "agents". In this program, there are four types of agents - patches, villages, households, and animals. Here, we describe the impacts of hunting on the biodiversity based on actual demographic data from one village named Crush Water. Animal population within the hunting territory of the village stabilized but Agouti/Paca dominates the landscape with little population of armadillos and peccaries. White-tailed deers, Tapirs, Capybara exist but very low. This finding is well aligned with the hunting dataset - Agouti/Paca consists 27% of total hunting. Based on our simulation, it seems the dominance of Agouti/Paca among hunted animals shown in the field data can be explained solely by their high carrying capacity against human extraction (population density of the Paca/Agouti = 60 per square km, whereas other animals ranges 0.63 to 7). When we incorporate agriculture, the "rodentation" of the animal population toward Agouti/Paca becomes more obvious. This simulation shows the interactions of people and animals through land change and hunting, which were observed in our fields.

Children's and adults' use of verbal information to visually anticipate others' actions: A study on explicit and implicit social-cognitive processing.

PubMed

Paulus, Markus; Schuwerk, Tobias; Sodian, Beate; Ganglmayer, Kerstin

2017-03-01

According to recent theories, social cognition is based on two different types of information-processing; an implicit or action-based one and an explicit or verbal one. The present study examined whether implicit and explicit social-cognitive information processing interact with each other by investigating young children's and adults' use of verbal (i.e., explicit) information to predict others' actions. Employing eye-tracking to measure anticipatory eye-movements as a measure of implicit processing, Experiment 1 presented 1.5-, 2.5-, and 3.5-year-old children as well as adults with agents who announced to move to either of two possible targets. The results show that only the 3.5-year-old children and adults, but not the 1.5- and 2.5-year-old children were able to use verbal information to correctly anticipate others' actions. Yet, Experiments 2 and 3 showed that 2.5-year-old children were able to use explicit information to give a correct explicit answer (Experiment 2) and that they were able to use statistical information to anticipate the other's actions (Experiment 3). Overall, the study is in line with theoretical claims that two types of information-processing underlie human social cognition. It shows that these two inform each other by 3years of age. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling Effects of Local Extinctions on Culture Change and Diversity in the Paleolithic

PubMed Central

Premo, L. S.; Kuhn, Steven L.

2010-01-01

The persistence of early stone tool technologies has puzzled archaeologists for decades. Cognitively based explanations, which presume either lack of ability to innovate or extreme conformism, do not account for the totality of the empirical patterns. Following recent research, this study explores the effects of demographic factors on rates of culture change and diversification. We investigate whether the appearance of stability in early Paleolithic technologies could result from frequent extinctions of local subpopulations within a persistent metapopulation. A spatially explicit agent-based model was constructed to test the influence of local extinction rate on three general cultural patterns that archaeologists might observe in the material record: total diversity, differentiation among spatially defined groups, and the rate of cumulative change. The model shows that diversity, differentiation, and the rate of cumulative cultural change would be strongly affected by local extinction rates, in some cases mimicking the results of conformist cultural transmission. The results have implications for understanding spatial and temporal patterning in ancient material culture. PMID:21179418

The Ms. Stereotype Revisited: Implicit and Explicit Facets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malcolmson, Kelly A.; Sinclair, Lisa

2007-01-01

Implicit and explicit stereotypes toward the title Ms. were examined. Participants read a short description of a target person whose title of address varied (Ms., Mrs., Miss, Mr.). They then rated the person on agentic and communal traits and completed an Implicit Association Test. Replicating earlier research (Dion, 1987), at an explicit level,…

Improvement, Verification, and Refinement of Spatially-Explicit Exposure Models in Risk Assessment - FishRand Spatially-Explicit Bioaccumulation Model Demonstration

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-01

21  Figure 4. Data-based proportion of DDD , DDE and DDT in total DDx in fish and sediment by... DDD dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane DDE dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene DDT dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane DoD Department of Defense ERM... DDD ) at the other site. The spatially-explicit model consistently predicts tissue concentrations that closely match both the average and the

Keeping speed and distance for aligned motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farkas, Illés J.; Kun, Jeromos; Jin, Yi; He, Gaoqi; Xu, Mingliang

2015-01-01

The cohesive collective motion (flocking, swarming) of autonomous agents is ubiquitously observed and exploited in both natural and man-made settings, thus, minimal models for its description are essential. In a model with continuous space and time we find that if two particles arrive symmetrically in a plane at a large angle, then (i) radial repulsion and (ii) linear self-propelling toward a fixed preferred speed are sufficient for them to depart at a smaller angle. For this local gain of momentum explicit velocity alignment is not necessary, nor are adhesion or attraction, inelasticity or anisotropy of the particles, or nonlinear drag. With many particles obeying these microscopic rules of motion we find that their spatial confinement to a square with periodic boundaries (which is an indirect form of attraction) leads to stable macroscopic ordering. As a function of the strength of added noise we see—at finite system sizes—a critical slowing down close to the order-disorder boundary and a discontinuous transition. After varying the density of particles at constant system size and varying the size of the system with constant particle density we predict that in the infinite system size (or density) limit the hysteresis loop disappears and the transition becomes continuous. We note that animals, humans, drones, etc., tend to move asynchronously and are often more responsive to motion than positions. Thus, for them velocity-based continuous models can provide higher precision than coordinate-based models. An additional characteristic and realistic feature of the model is that convergence to the ordered state is fastest at a finite density, which is in contrast to models applying (discontinuous) explicit velocity alignments and discretized time. To summarize, we find that the investigated model can provide a minimal description of flocking.

Keeping speed and distance for aligned motion.

PubMed

Farkas, Illés J; Kun, Jeromos; Jin, Yi; He, Gaoqi; Xu, Mingliang

2015-01-01

The cohesive collective motion (flocking, swarming) of autonomous agents is ubiquitously observed and exploited in both natural and man-made settings, thus, minimal models for its description are essential. In a model with continuous space and time we find that if two particles arrive symmetrically in a plane at a large angle, then (i) radial repulsion and (ii) linear self-propelling toward a fixed preferred speed are sufficient for them to depart at a smaller angle. For this local gain of momentum explicit velocity alignment is not necessary, nor are adhesion or attraction, inelasticity or anisotropy of the particles, or nonlinear drag. With many particles obeying these microscopic rules of motion we find that their spatial confinement to a square with periodic boundaries (which is an indirect form of attraction) leads to stable macroscopic ordering. As a function of the strength of added noise we see--at finite system sizes--a critical slowing down close to the order-disorder boundary and a discontinuous transition. After varying the density of particles at constant system size and varying the size of the system with constant particle density we predict that in the infinite system size (or density) limit the hysteresis loop disappears and the transition becomes continuous. We note that animals, humans, drones, etc., tend to move asynchronously and are often more responsive to motion than positions. Thus, for them velocity-based continuous models can provide higher precision than coordinate-based models. An additional characteristic and realistic feature of the model is that convergence to the ordered state is fastest at a finite density, which is in contrast to models applying (discontinuous) explicit velocity alignments and discretized time. To summarize, we find that the investigated model can provide a minimal description of flocking.

Using Ontologies to Formalize Services Specifications in Multi-Agent Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breitman, Karin Koogan; Filho, Aluizio Haendchen; Haeusler, Edward Hermann

2004-01-01

One key issue in multi-agent systems (MAS) is their ability to interact and exchange information autonomously across applications. To secure agent interoperability, designers must rely on a communication protocol that allows software agents to exchange meaningful information. In this paper we propose using ontologies as such communication protocol. Ontologies capture the semantics of the operations and services provided by agents, allowing interoperability and information exchange in a MAS. Ontologies are a formal, machine processable, representation that allows to capture the semantics of a domain and, to derive meaningful information by way of logical inference. In our proposal we use a formal knowledge representation language (OWL) that translates into Description Logics (a subset of first order logic), thus eliminating ambiguities and providing a solid base for machine based inference. The main contribution of this approach is to make the requirements explicit, centralize the specification in a single document (the ontology itself), at the same that it provides a formal, unambiguous representation that can be processed by automated inference machines.

Towards Anatomic Scale Agent-Based Modeling with a Massively Parallel Spatially Explicit General-Purpose Model of Enteric Tissue (SEGMEnT_HPC)

PubMed Central

Cockrell, Robert Chase; Christley, Scott; Chang, Eugene; An, Gary

2015-01-01

Perhaps the greatest challenge currently facing the biomedical research community is the ability to integrate highly detailed cellular and molecular mechanisms to represent clinical disease states as a pathway to engineer effective therapeutics. This is particularly evident in the representation of organ-level pathophysiology in terms of abnormal tissue structure, which, through histology, remains a mainstay in disease diagnosis and staging. As such, being able to generate anatomic scale simulations is a highly desirable goal. While computational limitations have previously constrained the size and scope of multi-scale computational models, advances in the capacity and availability of high-performance computing (HPC) resources have greatly expanded the ability of computational models of biological systems to achieve anatomic, clinically relevant scale. Diseases of the intestinal tract are exemplary examples of pathophysiological processes that manifest at multiple scales of spatial resolution, with structural abnormalities present at the microscopic, macroscopic and organ-levels. In this paper, we describe a novel, massively parallel computational model of the gut, the Spatially Explicitly General-purpose Model of Enteric Tissue_HPC (SEGMEnT_HPC), which extends an existing model of the gut epithelium, SEGMEnT, in order to create cell-for-cell anatomic scale simulations. We present an example implementation of SEGMEnT_HPC that simulates the pathogenesis of ileal pouchitis, and important clinical entity that affects patients following remedial surgery for ulcerative colitis. PMID:25806784

The importance of explicitly mapping instructional analogies in science education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asay, Loretta Johnson

Analogies are ubiquitous during instruction in science classrooms, yet research about the effectiveness of using analogies has produced mixed results. An aspect seldom studied is a model of instruction when using analogies. The few existing models for instruction with analogies have not often been examined quantitatively. The Teaching With Analogies (TWA) model (Glynn, 1991) is one of the models frequently cited in the variety of research about analogies. The TWA model outlines steps for instruction, including the step of explicitly mapping the features of the source to the target. An experimental study was conducted to examine the effects of explicitly mapping the features of the source and target in an analogy during computer-based instruction about electrical circuits. Explicit mapping was compared to no mapping and to a control with no analogy. Participants were ninth- and tenth-grade biology students who were each randomly assigned to one of three conditions (no analogy module, analogy module, or explicitly mapped analogy module) for computer-based instruction. Subjects took a pre-test before the instruction, which was used to assign them to a level of previous knowledge about electrical circuits for analysis of any differential effects. After the instruction modules, students took a post-test about electrical circuits. Two weeks later, they took a delayed post-test. No advantage was found for explicitly mapping the analogy. Learning patterns were the same, regardless of the type of instruction. Those who knew the least about electrical circuits, based on the pre-test, made the most gains. After the two-week delay, this group maintained the largest amount of their gain. Implications exist for science education classrooms, as analogy use should be based on research about effective practices. Further studies are suggested to foster the building of research-based models for classroom instruction with analogies.

A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lagos, Ricardo; Wright, Randall

2005-01-01

Search-theoretic models of monetary exchange are based on explicit descriptions of the frictions that make money essential. However, tractable versions of these models typically make strong assumptions that render them ill suited for monetary policy analysis. We propose a new framework, based on explicit micro foundations, within which macro…

Combining Model-driven and Schema-based Program Synthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Denney, Ewen; Whittle, John

2004-01-01

We describe ongoing work which aims to extend the schema-based program synthesis paradigm with explicit models. In this context, schemas can be considered as model-to-model transformations. The combination of schemas with explicit models offers a number of advantages, namely, that building synthesis systems becomes much easier since the models can be used in verification and in adaptation of the synthesis systems. We illustrate our approach using an example from signal processing.

CATS-based Air Traffic Controller Agents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callantine, Todd J.

2002-01-01

This report describes intelligent agents that function as air traffic controllers. Each agent controls traffic in a single sector in real time; agents controlling traffic in adjoining sectors can coordinate to manage an arrival flow across a given meter fix. The purpose of this research is threefold. First, it seeks to study the design of agents for controlling complex systems. In particular, it investigates agent planning and reactive control functionality in a dynamic environment in which a variety perceptual and decision making skills play a central role. It examines how heuristic rules can be applied to model planning and decision making skills, rather than attempting to apply optimization methods. Thus, the research attempts to develop intelligent agents that provide an approximation of human air traffic controller behavior that, while not based on an explicit cognitive model, does produce task performance consistent with the way human air traffic controllers operate. Second, this research sought to extend previous research on using the Crew Activity Tracking System (CATS) as the basis for intelligent agents. The agents use a high-level model of air traffic controller activities to structure the control task. To execute an activity in the CATS model, according to the current task context, the agents reference a 'skill library' and 'control rules' that in turn execute the pattern recognition, planning, and decision-making required to perform the activity. Applying the skills enables the agents to modify their representation of the current control situation (i.e., the 'flick' or 'picture'). The updated representation supports the next activity in a cycle of action that, taken as a whole, simulates air traffic controller behavior. A third, practical motivation for this research is to use intelligent agents to support evaluation of new air traffic control (ATC) methods to support new Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts. Current approaches that use large, human-in-the-loop simulations are unquestionably valuable for this purpose, but pose considerable logistical, fiscal, and experimental control problems. First, data analysis is extremely complicated, owing simply to the large number of participants and data sources in such simulations. In addition, experienced human air traffic controllers working adjacent sectors tend to flexibly adapt to the evolving control problem - potentially shifting to other strategies than those under investigation. In addition, their performance is tightly coupled to the control interface, which in the development phase may support some concepts and supporting strategies better than others. A simple shift in strategy by one controller can change the character of a particular traffic scenario dramatically, which makes experimental comparison of ATC performance under different traffic scenarios difficult. Training a given team of controllers on operations under a new ATM concept for a sufficient period of time could avert such difficulties, but instituting an adequate training program is expensive and logistically difficult.

Explicit continuous charge-based compact model for long channel heavily doped surrounding-gate MOSFETs incorporating interface traps and quantum effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamzah, Afiq; Hamid, Fatimah A.; Ismail, Razali

2016-12-01

An explicit solution for long-channel surrounding-gate (SRG) MOSFETs is presented from intrinsic to heavily doped body including the effects of interface traps and fixed oxide charges. The solution is based on the core SRGMOSFETs model of the Unified Charge Control Model (UCCM) for heavily doped conditions. The UCCM model of highly doped SRGMOSFETs is derived to obtain the exact equivalent expression as in the undoped case. Taking advantage of the undoped explicit charge-based expression, the asymptotic limits for below threshold and above threshold have been redefined to include the effect of trap states for heavily doped cases. After solving the asymptotic limits, an explicit mobile charge expression is obtained which includes the trap state effects. The explicit mobile charge model shows very good agreement with respect to numerical simulation over practical terminal voltages, doping concentration, geometry effects, and trap state effects due to the fixed oxide charges and interface traps. Then, the drain current is obtained using the Pao-Sah's dual integral, which is expressed as a function of inversion charge densities at the source/drain ends. The drain current agreed well with the implicit solution and numerical simulation for all regions of operation without employing any empirical parameters. A comparison with previous explicit models has been conducted to verify the competency of the proposed model with the doping concentration of 1× {10}19 {{cm}}-3, as the proposed model has better advantages in terms of its simplicity and accuracy at a higher doping concentration.

Cells, Agents, and Support Vectors in Interaction - Modeling Urban Sprawl based on Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence Techniques in a Post-Industrial Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rienow, A.; Menz, G.

2015-12-01

Since the beginning of the millennium, artificial intelligence techniques as cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) have been incorporated into land-system simulations to address the complex challenges of transitions in urban areas as open, dynamic systems. The study presents a hybrid modeling approach for modeling the two antagonistic processes of urban sprawl and urban decline at once. The simulation power of support vector machines (SVM), cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) are integrated into one modeling framework and applied to the largest agglomeration of Central Europe: the Ruhr. A modified version of SLEUTH (short for Slope, Land-use, Exclusion, Urban, Transport, and Hillshade) functions as the CA component. SLEUTH makes use of historic urban land-use data sets and growth coefficients for the purpose of modeling physical urban expansion. The machine learning algorithm of SVM is applied in order to enhance SLEUTH. Thus, the stochastic variability of the CA is reduced and information about the human and ecological forces driving the local suitability of urban sprawl is incorporated. Subsequently, the supported CA is coupled with the MAS ReHoSh (Residential Mobility and the Housing Market of Shrinking City Systems). The MAS models population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking regions based on interactions between household and city agents. Semi-explicit urban weights are introduced as a possibility of modeling from and to the pixel simultaneously. Three scenarios of changing housing preferences reveal the urban development of the region in terms of quantity and location. They reflect the dissemination of sustainable thinking among stakeholders versus the steady dream of owning a house in sub- and exurban areas. Additionally, the outcomes are transferred into a digital petri dish reflecting a synthetic environment with perfect conditions of growth. Hence, the generic growth elements affecting the future face of post-industrial cities are revealed. Finally, the advantages and limitations of linking pixels and people by combining AI and machine learning techniques in a multi-scale geosimulation approach are to be discussed.

Analytical Modelling of the Spread of Disease in Confined and Crowded Spaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goscé, Lara; Barton, David A. W.; Johansson, Anders

2014-05-01

Since 1927 and until recently, most models describing the spread of disease have been of compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. Recent models have utilised agent-based models and complex networks to explicitly study heterogeneous interaction patterns, but this leads to an increasing computational complexity. Compartmental models are appealing because of their simplicity, but their parameters, especially the transmission rate, are complex and depend on a number of factors, which makes it hard to predict how a change of a single environmental, demographic, or epidemiological factor will affect the population. Therefore, in this contribution we propose a middle ground, utilising crowd-behaviour research to improve compartmental models in crowded situations. We show how both the rate of infection as well as the walking speed depend on the local crowd density around an infected individual. The combined effect is that the rate of infection at a population scale has an analytically tractable non-linear dependency on crowd density. We model the spread of a hypothetical disease in a corridor and compare our new model with a typical compartmental model, which highlights the regime in which current models may not produce credible results.

Expert knowledge elicitation using computer simulation: the organization of frail elderly case management as an illustration.

PubMed

Chiêm, Jean-Christophe; Van Durme, Thérèse; Vandendorpe, Florence; Schmitz, Olivier; Speybroeck, Niko; Cès, Sophie; Macq, Jean

2014-08-01

Various elderly case management projects have been implemented in Belgium. This type of long-term health care intervention involves contextual factors and human interactions. These underlying complex mechanisms can be usefully informed with field experts' knowledge, which are hard to make explicit. However, computer simulation has been suggested as one possible method of overcoming the difficulty of articulating such elicited qualitative views. A simulation model of case management was designed using an agent-based methodology, based on the initial qualitative research material. Variables and rules of interaction were formulated into a simple conceptual framework. This model has been implemented and was used as a support for a structured discussion with experts in case management. The rigorous formulation provided by the agent-based methodology clarified the descriptions of the interventions and the problems encountered regarding: the diverse network topologies of health care actors in the project; the adaptation time required by the intervention; the communication between the health care actors; the institutional context; the organization of the care; and the role of the case manager and his or hers personal ability to interpret the informal demands of the frail older person. The simulation model should be seen primarily as a tool for thinking and learning. A number of insights were gained as part of a valuable cognitive process. Computer simulation supporting field experts' elicitation can lead to better-informed decisions in the organization of complex health care interventions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Spreading dynamics on complex networks: a general stochastic approach.

PubMed

Noël, Pierre-André; Allard, Antoine; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Marceau, Vincent; Dubé, Louis J

2014-12-01

Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach is especially well adapted for modelling spreading processes and/or population dynamics. In particular, the generality of our framework and the fact that its assumptions are explicitly stated suggests that it could be used as a common ground for comparing existing epidemics models too complex for direct comparison, such as agent-based computer simulations. We provide many examples for the special cases of susceptible-infectious-susceptible and susceptible-infectious-removed dynamics (e.g., epidemics propagation) and we observe multiple situations where accurate results may be obtained at low computational cost. Our perspective reveals a subtle balance between the complex requirements of a realistic model and its basic assumptions.

USING THE ECLPSS SOFTWARE ENVIRONMENT TO BUILD A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT COMPONENT-BASED MODEL OF OZONE EFFECTS ON FOREST ECOSYSTEMS. (R827958)

EPA Science Inventory

We have developed a modeling framework to support grid-based simulation of ecosystems at multiple spatial scales, the Ecological Component Library for Parallel Spatial Simulation (ECLPSS). ECLPSS helps ecologists to build robust spatially explicit simulations of ...

Land Use Change on Household Farms in the Ecuadorian Amazon: Design and Implementation of an Agent-Based Model

PubMed Central

Mena, Carlos F.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Frizzelle, Brian G.; Xiaozheng, Yao; Malanson, George P.

2010-01-01

This paper describes the design and implementation of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) used to simulate land use change on household farms in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). The ABM simulates decision-making processes at the household level that is examined through a longitudinal, socio-economic and demographic survey that was conducted in 1990 and 1999. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to establish spatial relationships between farms and their environment, while classified Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery is used to set initial land use/land cover conditions for the spatial simulation, assess from-to land use/land cover change patterns, and describe trajectories of land use change at the farm and landscape levels. Results from prior studies in the NEA provide insights into the key social and ecological variables, describe human behavioral functions, and examine population-environment interactions that are linked to deforestation and agricultural extensification, population migration, and demographic change. Within the architecture of the model, agents are classified as active or passive. The model comprises four modules, i.e., initialization, demography, agriculture, and migration that operate individually, but are linked through key household processes. The main outputs of the model include a spatially-explicit representation of the land use/land cover on survey and non-survey farms and at the landscape level for each annual time-step, as well as simulated socio-economic and demographic characteristics of households and communities. The work describes the design and implementation of the model and how population-environment interactions can be addressed in a frontier setting. The paper contributes to land change science by examining important pattern-process relations, advocating a spatial modeling approach that is capable of synthesizing fundamental relationships at the farm level, and links people and environment in complex ways. PMID:24436501

Graph-based analysis of connectivity in spatially-explicit population models: HexSim and the Connectivity Analysis Toolkit

EPA Science Inventory

Background / Question / Methods Planning for the recovery of threatened species is increasingly informed by spatially-explicit population models. However, using simulation model results to guide land management decisions can be difficult due to the volume and complexity of model...

Direct versus Indirect Explicit Methods of Enhancing EFL Students' English Grammatical Competence: A Concept Checking-Based Consciousness-Raising Tasks Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dang, Trang Thi Doan; Nguyen, Huong Thu

2013-01-01

Two approaches to grammar instruction are often discussed in the ESL literature: direct explicit grammar instruction (DEGI) (deduction) and indirect explicit grammar instruction (IEGI) (induction). This study aims to explore the effects of indirect explicit grammar instruction on EFL learners' mastery of English tenses. Ninety-four…

The Freter model: a simple model of biofilm formation.

PubMed

Jones, Don; Kojouharov, Hristo V; Le, Dung; Smith, Hal

2003-08-01

A simple, conceptual model of biofilm formation, due to R. Freter et al. (1983), is studied analytically and numerically in both CSTR and PFR. Two steady state regimes are identified, namely, the complete washout of the microbes from the reactor and the successful colonization of both the wall and bulk fluid. One of these is stable for any particular set of parameter values and sharp and explicit conditions are given for the stability of each. The effects of adding an anti-microbial agent to the CSTR are examined.

Spatially explicit watershed modeling: tracking water, mercury and nitrogen in multiple systems under diverse conditions

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental decision-making and the influences of various stressors, such as landscape and climate changes on water quantity and quality, requires the application of environmental modeling. Spatially explicit environmental and watershed-scale models using GIS as a base framewor...

Grandmothering life histories and human pair bonding.

PubMed

Coxworth, James E; Kim, Peter S; McQueen, John S; Hawkes, Kristen

2015-09-22

The evolution of distinctively human life history and social organization is generally attributed to paternal provisioning based on pair bonds. Here we develop an alternative argument that connects the evolution of human pair bonds to the male-biased mating sex ratios that accompanied the evolution of human life history. We simulate an agent-based model of the grandmother hypothesis, compare simulated sex ratios to data on great apes and human hunter-gatherers, and note associations between a preponderance of males and mate guarding across taxa. Then we explore a recent model that highlights the importance of mating sex ratios for differences between birds and mammals and conclude that lessons for human evolution cannot ignore mammalian reproductive constraints. In contradiction to our claim that male-biased sex ratios are characteristically human, female-biased ratios are reported in some populations. We consider the likelihood that fertile men are undercounted and conclude that the mate-guarding hypothesis for human pair bonds gains strength from explicit links with our grandmothering life history.

Innovations in individual feature history management - The significance of feature-based temporal model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Choi, J.; Seong, J.C.; Kim, B.; Usery, E.L.

2008-01-01

A feature relies on three dimensions (space, theme, and time) for its representation. Even though spatiotemporal models have been proposed, they have principally focused on the spatial changes of a feature. In this paper, a feature-based temporal model is proposed to represent the changes of both space and theme independently. The proposed model modifies the ISO's temporal schema and adds new explicit temporal relationship structure that stores temporal topological relationship with the ISO's temporal primitives of a feature in order to keep track feature history. The explicit temporal relationship can enhance query performance on feature history by removing topological comparison during query process. Further, a prototype system has been developed to test a proposed feature-based temporal model by querying land parcel history in Athens, Georgia. The result of temporal query on individual feature history shows the efficiency of the explicit temporal relationship structure. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

Continuum Fatigue Damage Modeling for Use in Life Extending Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lorenzo, Carl F.

1994-01-01

This paper develops a simplified continuum (continuous wrp to time, stress, etc.) fatigue damage model for use in Life Extending Controls (LEC) studies. The work is based on zero mean stress local strain cyclic damage modeling. New nonlinear explicit equation forms of cyclic damage in terms of stress amplitude are derived to facilitate the continuum modeling. Stress based continuum models are derived. Extension to plastic strain-strain rate models are also presented. Application of these models to LEC applications is considered. Progress toward a nonzero mean stress based continuum model is presented. Also, new nonlinear explicit equation forms in terms of stress amplitude are also derived for this case.

Social Network Analysis and Nutritional Behavior: An Integrated Modeling Approach

PubMed Central

Senior, Alistair M.; Lihoreau, Mathieu; Buhl, Jerome; Raubenheimer, David; Simpson, Stephen J.

2016-01-01

Animals have evolved complex foraging strategies to obtain a nutritionally balanced diet and associated fitness benefits. Recent research combining state-space models of nutritional geometry with agent-based models (ABMs), show how nutrient targeted foraging behavior can also influence animal social interactions, ultimately affecting collective dynamics and group structures. Here we demonstrate how social network analyses can be integrated into such a modeling framework and provide a practical analytical tool to compare experimental results with theory. We illustrate our approach by examining the case of nutritionally mediated dominance hierarchies. First we show how nutritionally explicit ABMs that simulate the emergence of dominance hierarchies can be used to generate social networks. Importantly the structural properties of our simulated networks bear similarities to dominance networks of real animals (where conflicts are not always directly related to nutrition). Finally, we demonstrate how metrics from social network analyses can be used to predict the fitness of agents in these simulated competitive environments. Our results highlight the potential importance of nutritional mechanisms in shaping dominance interactions in a wide range of social and ecological contexts. Nutrition likely influences social interactions in many species, and yet a theoretical framework for exploring these effects is currently lacking. Combining social network analyses with computational models from nutritional ecology may bridge this divide, representing a pragmatic approach for generating theoretical predictions for nutritional experiments. PMID:26858671

Explicit robust schemes for implementation of general principal value-based constitutive models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, S. M.; Saleeb, A. F.; Tan, H. Q.; Zhang, Y.

1993-01-01

The issue of developing effective and robust schemes to implement general hyperelastic constitutive models is addressed. To this end, special purpose functions are used to symbolically derive, evaluate, and automatically generate the associated FORTRAN code for the explicit forms of the corresponding stress function and material tangent stiffness tensors. These explicit forms are valid for the entire deformation range. The analytical form of these explicit expressions is given here for the case in which the strain-energy potential is taken as a nonseparable polynomial function of the principle stretches.

Modeling the Impact of Spatial Structure on Growth Dynamics of Invasive Plant Species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, James T.; Johnson, Mark P.; Walshe, Ray

2013-07-01

Invasive nonindigenous plant species can have potentially serious detrimental effects on local ecosystems and, as a result, costly control efforts often have to be put in place to protect habitats. An example of an invasive problem on a global scale involves the salt marsh grass species from the genus Spartina. The spread of Spartina anglica in Europe and Asia has drawn much concern due to its ability to convert coastal habitats into cord-grass monocultures and to alter the native food webs. However, the patterns of invasion of Spartina species are amenable to spatially-explicit modeling strategies that take into account both temporal and spatio-temporal processes. In this study, an agent-based model of Spartina growth on a simulated mud flat environment was developed in order to study the effects of spatial pattern and initial seedling placement on the invasion dynamics of the population. The spatial pattern of an invasion plays a key role in the rate of spread of the species and understanding this can lead to significant cost savings when designing efficient control strategies. We present here a model framework that can be used to explicitly represent complex spatial and temporal patterns of invasion in order to be able to predict quantitatively the impact of these factors on invasion dynamics. This would be a useful tool for assessing eradication strategies and choosing optimal control solutions in order to be able to minimize future control costs.

Meeting the Deadline: Why, When and How

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dignum, Frank; Broersen, Jan; Dignum, Virginia; Meyer, John-Jules

2004-01-01

A normative system is defined as any set of interacting agents whose behavior can usefully be regarded as norm-directed. Most organizations, and more specifically institutions, fall under this definition. Interactions in these normative systems are regulated by normative templates that describe desired behavior in terms of deontic concepts (obligations, prohibitions and permissions), deadlines, violations and sanctions. Agreements between agents, and between an agent and the society, can then be specified by means of contracts. Contracts provide flexible but verifiable means to integrate society requirements and agent autonomy. and are an adequate means for the explicit specification of interactions. From the society perspective, it is important that these contracts adhere to the specifications described in the model of the organization. If we want to automate such verifications, we have to formalize the languages used for contracts and for the specification of organizations. The logic LCR is based on deontic temporal logic. LCR is an expressive language for describing interaction in multi-agent systems, including obligations with deadlines. Deadlines are important norms in most interactions between agents. Intuitively, a deadline states that an agent should perform an action before a certain point in time. The obligation to perform the action starts at the moment the deadline becomes active. E.g. when a contract is signed or approved. If the action is not performed in time a violation of the deadline occurs. It can be specified independently what measure has to be taken in this case. In this paper we investigate the deadline concept in more detail. The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 defines the variant of CTL we use. In section 3, we discuss the basic intuitions of deadlines. Section 4 presents a first intuitive formalization for deadlines. In section 5, we look at a more complex model for deadlines trying to catch some more practical aspects. Finally, in section 6 we present issues for future work and our conciusions.

Vision, knowledge, and assertion.

PubMed

Turri, John

2016-04-01

I report two experiments studying the relationship among explicit judgments about what people see, know, and should assert. When an object of interest was surrounded by visibly similar items, it diminished people's willingness to judge that an agent sees, knows, and should tell others that it is present. This supports the claim, made by many philosophers, that inhabiting a misleading environment intuitively decreases our willingness to attribute perception and knowledge. However, contrary to stronger claims made by some philosophers, inhabiting a misleading environment does not lead to the opposite pattern whereby people deny perception and knowledge. Causal modeling suggests a specific psychological model of how explicit judgments about perception, knowledge, and assertability are made: knowledge attributions cause perception attributions, which in turn cause assertability attributions. These findings advance understanding of how these three important judgments are made, provide new evidence that knowledge is the norm of assertion, and highlight some important subtleties in folk epistemology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Green-Ampt approximations: A comprehensive analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Shakir; Islam, Adlul; Mishra, P. K.; Sikka, Alok K.

2016-04-01

Green-Ampt (GA) model and its modifications are widely used for simulating infiltration process. Several explicit approximate solutions to the implicit GA model have been developed with varying degree of accuracy. In this study, performance of nine explicit approximations to the GA model is compared with the implicit GA model using the published data for broad range of soil classes and infiltration time. The explicit GA models considered are Li et al. (1976) (LI), Stone et al. (1994) (ST), Salvucci and Entekhabi (1994) (SE), Parlange et al. (2002) (PA), Barry et al. (2005) (BA), Swamee et al. (2012) (SW), Ali et al. (2013) (AL), Almedeij and Esen (2014) (AE), and Vatankhah (2015) (VA). Six statistical indicators (e.g., percent relative error, maximum absolute percent relative error, average absolute percent relative errors, percent bias, index of agreement, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency) and relative computer computation time are used for assessing the model performance. Models are ranked based on the overall performance index (OPI). The BA model is found to be the most accurate followed by the PA and VA models for variety of soil classes and infiltration periods. The AE, SW, SE, and LI model also performed comparatively better. Based on the overall performance index, the explicit models are ranked as BA > PA > VA > LI > AE > SE > SW > ST > AL. Results of this study will be helpful in selection of accurate and simple explicit approximate GA models for solving variety of hydrological problems.

New approaches in agent-based modeling of complex financial systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ting-Ting; Zheng, Bo; Li, Yan; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

2017-12-01

Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation technique to understand the collective behavior and microscopic interaction in complex financial systems. Recently, the concept for determining the key parameters of agent-based models from empirical data instead of setting them artificially was suggested. We first review several agent-based models and the new approaches to determine the key model parameters from historical market data. Based on the agents' behaviors with heterogeneous personal preferences and interactions, these models are successful in explaining the microscopic origination of the temporal and spatial correlations of financial markets. We then present a novel paradigm combining big-data analysis with agent-based modeling. Specifically, from internet query and stock market data, we extract the information driving forces and develop an agent-based model to simulate the dynamic behaviors of complex financial systems.

Believable Social and Emotional Agents.

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-05-01

While building tools to support the creation of believable emotional agents, I had to make a number of important design decisions . Before describing...processing systems, it is difficult to give an artist direct control over the emotion - al aspects of the character. By making these decisions explicit, I hope...Woody on “Cheers”). Believable Agents BELIEVABLE SOCIAL AND EMOTIONAL AGENTS 11 Lesson: We don’t want agent architectures that enforce rationality and

Group-based differences in anti-aging bias among medical students.

PubMed

Ruiz, Jorge G; Andrade, Allen D; Anam, Ramanakumar; Taldone, Sabrina; Karanam, Chandana; Hogue, Christie; Mintzer, Michael J

2015-01-01

Medical students (MS) may develop ageist attitudes early in their training that may predict their future avoidance of caring for the elderly. This study sought to determine MS' patterns of explicit and implicit anti-aging bias, intent to practice with older people and using the quad model, the role of gender, race, and motivation-based differences. One hundred and three MS completed an online survey that included explicit and implicit measures. Explicit measures revealed a moderately positive perception of older people. Female medical students and those high in internal motivation showed lower anti-aging bias, and both were more likely to intend to practice with older people. Although the implicit measure revealed more negativity toward the elderly than the explicit measures, there were no group differences. However, using the quad model the authors identified gender, race, and motivation-based differences in controlled and automatic processes involved in anti-aging bias.

Population structuring of multi-copy, antigen-encoding genes in Plasmodium falciparum

PubMed Central

Artzy-Randrup, Yael; Rorick, Mary M; Day, Karen; Chen, Donald; Dobson, Andrew P; Pascual, Mercedes

2012-01-01

The coexistence of multiple independently circulating strains in pathogen populations that undergo sexual recombination is a central question of epidemiology with profound implications for control. An agent-based model is developed that extends earlier ‘strain theory’ by addressing the var gene family of Plasmodium falciparum. The model explicitly considers the extensive diversity of multi-copy genes that undergo antigenic variation via sequential, mutually exclusive expression. It tracks the dynamics of all unique var repertoires in a population of hosts, and shows that even under high levels of sexual recombination, strain competition mediated through cross-immunity structures the parasite population into a subset of coexisting dominant repertoires of var genes whose degree of antigenic overlap depends on transmission intensity. Empirical comparison of patterns of genetic variation at antigenic and neutral sites supports this role for immune selection in structuring parasite diversity. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00093.001 PMID:23251784

A Goal Oriented Approach for Modeling and Analyzing Security Trade-Offs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elahi, Golnaz; Yu, Eric

In designing software systems, security is typically only one design objective among many. It may compete with other objectives such as functionality, usability, and performance. Too often, security mechanisms such as firewalls, access control, or encryption are adopted without explicit recognition of competing design objectives and their origins in stakeholder interests. Recently, there is increasing acknowledgement that security is ultimately about trade-offs. One can only aim for "good enough" security, given the competing demands from many parties. In this paper, we examine how conceptual modeling can provide explicit and systematic support for analyzing security trade-offs. After considering the desirable criteria for conceptual modeling methods, we examine several existing approaches for dealing with security trade-offs. From analyzing the limitations of existing methods, we propose an extension to the i* framework for security trade-off analysis, taking advantage of its multi-agent and goal orientation. The method was applied to several case studies used to exemplify existing approaches.

BioASF: a framework for automatically generating executable pathway models specified in BioPAX.

PubMed

Haydarlou, Reza; Jacobsen, Annika; Bonzanni, Nicola; Feenstra, K Anton; Abeln, Sanne; Heringa, Jaap

2016-06-15

Biological pathways play a key role in most cellular functions. To better understand these functions, diverse computational and cell biology researchers use biological pathway data for various analysis and modeling purposes. For specifying these biological pathways, a community of researchers has defined BioPAX and provided various tools for creating, validating and visualizing BioPAX models. However, a generic software framework for simulating BioPAX models is missing. Here, we attempt to fill this gap by introducing a generic simulation framework for BioPAX. The framework explicitly separates the execution model from the model structure as provided by BioPAX, with the advantage that the modelling process becomes more reproducible and intrinsically more modular; this ensures natural biological constraints are satisfied upon execution. The framework is based on the principles of discrete event systems and multi-agent systems, and is capable of automatically generating a hierarchical multi-agent system for a given BioPAX model. To demonstrate the applicability of the framework, we simulated two types of biological network models: a gene regulatory network modeling the haematopoietic stem cell regulators and a signal transduction network modeling the Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway. We observed that the results of the simulations performed using our framework were entirely consistent with the simulation results reported by the researchers who developed the original models in a proprietary language. The framework, implemented in Java, is open source and its source code, documentation and tutorial are available at http://www.ibi.vu.nl/programs/BioASF CONTACT: j.heringa@vu.nl. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

The Construction of Visual-spatial Situation Models in Children's Reading and Their Relation to Reading Comprehension

PubMed Central

Barnes, Marcia A.; Raghubar, Kimberly P.; Faulkner, Heather; Denton, Carolyn A.

2014-01-01

Readers construct mental models of situations described by text to comprehend what they read, updating these situation models based on explicitly described and inferred information about causal, temporal, and spatial relations. Fluent adult readers update their situation models while reading narrative text based in part on spatial location information that is consistent with the perspective of the protagonist. The current study investigates whether children update spatial situation models in a similar way, whether there are age-related changes in children's formation of spatial situation models during reading, and whether measures of the ability to construct and update spatial situation models are predictive of reading comprehension. Typically-developing children from ages 9 through 16 years (n=81) were familiarized with a physical model of a marketplace. Then the model was covered, and children read stories that described the movement of a protagonist through the marketplace and were administered items requiring memory for both explicitly stated and inferred information about the character's movements. Accuracy of responses and response times were evaluated. Results indicated that: (a) location and object information during reading appeared to be activated and updated not simply from explicit text-based information but from a mental model of the real world situation described by the text; (b) this pattern showed no age-related differences; and (c) the ability to update the situation model of the text based on inferred information, but not explicitly stated information, was uniquely predictive of reading comprehension after accounting for word decoding. PMID:24315376

Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bled, Florent; Sauer, John R.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J. Andy

2013-01-01

Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

A hybrid agent-based approach for modeling microbiological systems.

PubMed

Guo, Zaiyi; Sloot, Peter M A; Tay, Joc Cing

2008-11-21

Models for systems biology commonly adopt Differential Equations or Agent-Based modeling approaches for simulating the processes as a whole. Models based on differential equations presuppose phenomenological intracellular behavioral mechanisms, while models based on Multi-Agent approach often use directly translated, and quantitatively less precise if-then logical rule constructs. We propose an extendible systems model based on a hybrid agent-based approach where biological cells are modeled as individuals (agents) while molecules are represented by quantities. This hybridization in entity representation entails a combined modeling strategy with agent-based behavioral rules and differential equations, thereby balancing the requirements of extendible model granularity with computational tractability. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with models of chemotaxis involving an assay of 10(3) cells and 1.2x10(6) molecules. The model produces cell migration patterns that are comparable to laboratory observations.

An agent-based stochastic Occupancy Simulator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yixing; Hong, Tianzhen; Luo, Xuan

Occupancy has significant impacts on building performance. However, in current building performance simulation programs, occupancy inputs are static and lack diversity, contributing to discrepancies between the simulated and actual building performance. This work presents an Occupancy Simulator that simulates the stochastic behavior of occupant presence and movement in buildings, capturing the spatial and temporal occupancy diversity. Each occupant and each space in the building are explicitly simulated as an agent with their profiles of stochastic behaviors. The occupancy behaviors are represented with three types of models: (1) the status transition events (e.g., first arrival in office) simulated with probability distributionmore » model, (2) the random moving events (e.g., from one office to another) simulated with a homogeneous Markov chain model, and (3) the meeting events simulated with a new stochastic model. A hierarchical data model was developed for the Occupancy Simulator, which reduces the amount of data input by using the concepts of occupant types and space types. Finally, a case study of a small office building is presented to demonstrate the use of the Simulator to generate detailed annual sub-hourly occupant schedules for individual spaces and the whole building. The Simulator is a web application freely available to the public and capable of performing a detailed stochastic simulation of occupant presence and movement in buildings. Future work includes enhancements in the meeting event model, consideration of personal absent days, verification and validation of the simulated occupancy results, and expansion for use with residential buildings.« less

An agent-based stochastic Occupancy Simulator

DOE PAGES

Chen, Yixing; Hong, Tianzhen; Luo, Xuan

2017-06-01

Occupancy has significant impacts on building performance. However, in current building performance simulation programs, occupancy inputs are static and lack diversity, contributing to discrepancies between the simulated and actual building performance. This work presents an Occupancy Simulator that simulates the stochastic behavior of occupant presence and movement in buildings, capturing the spatial and temporal occupancy diversity. Each occupant and each space in the building are explicitly simulated as an agent with their profiles of stochastic behaviors. The occupancy behaviors are represented with three types of models: (1) the status transition events (e.g., first arrival in office) simulated with probability distributionmore » model, (2) the random moving events (e.g., from one office to another) simulated with a homogeneous Markov chain model, and (3) the meeting events simulated with a new stochastic model. A hierarchical data model was developed for the Occupancy Simulator, which reduces the amount of data input by using the concepts of occupant types and space types. Finally, a case study of a small office building is presented to demonstrate the use of the Simulator to generate detailed annual sub-hourly occupant schedules for individual spaces and the whole building. The Simulator is a web application freely available to the public and capable of performing a detailed stochastic simulation of occupant presence and movement in buildings. Future work includes enhancements in the meeting event model, consideration of personal absent days, verification and validation of the simulated occupancy results, and expansion for use with residential buildings.« less

The LUE data model for representation of agents and fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, Kor; Schmitz, Oliver; Karssenberg, Derek

2017-04-01

Traditionally, agents-based and field-based modelling environments use different data models to represent the state of information they manipulate. In agent-based modelling, involving the representation of phenomena as objects bounded in space and time, agents are often represented by classes, each of which represents a particular kind of agent and all its properties. Such classes can be used to represent entities like people, birds, cars and countries. In field-based modelling, involving the representation of the environment as continuous fields, fields are often represented by a discretization of space, using multidimensional arrays, each storing mostly a single attribute. Such arrays can be used to represent the elevation of the land-surface, the pH of the soil, or the population density in an area, for example. Representing a population of agents by class instances grouped in collections is an intuitive way of organizing information. A drawback, though, is that models in which class instances grouping properties are stored in collections are less efficient (execute slower) than models in which collections of properties are grouped. The field representation, on the other hand, is convenient for the efficient execution of models. Another drawback is that, because the data models used are so different, integrating agent-based and field-based models becomes difficult, since the model builder has to deal with multiple concepts, and often multiple modelling environments. With the development of the LUE data model [1] we aim at representing agents and fields within a single paradigm, by combining the advantages of the data models used in agent-based and field-based data modelling. This removes the barrier for writing integrated agent-based and field-based models. The resulting data model is intuitive to use and allows for efficient execution of models. LUE is both a high-level conceptual data model and a low-level physical data model. The LUE conceptual data model is a generalization of the data models used in agent-based and field-based modelling. The LUE physical data model [2] is an implementation of the LUE conceptual data model in HDF5. In our presentation we will provide details of our approach to organizing information about agents and fields. We will show examples of agent and field data represented by the conceptual and physical data model. References: [1] de Bakker, M.P., de Jong, K., Schmitz, O., Karssenberg, D., 2016. Design and demonstration of a data model to integrate agent-based and field-based modelling. Environmental Modelling and Software. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.11.016 [2] de Jong, K., 2017. LUE source code. https://github.com/pcraster/lue

Stability and diversity in collective adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Yuzuru; Akiyama, Eizo; Crutchfield, James P.

2005-10-01

We derive a class of macroscopic differential equations that describe collective adaptation, starting from a discrete-time stochastic microscopic model. The behavior of each agent is a dynamic balance between adaptation that locally achieves the best action and memory loss that leads to randomized behavior. We show that, although individual agents interact with their environment and other agents in a purely self-interested way, macroscopic behavior can be interpreted as game dynamics. Application to several familiar, explicit game interactions shows that the adaptation dynamics exhibits a diversity of collective behaviors. The simplicity of the assumptions underlying the macroscopic equations suggests that these behaviors should be expected broadly in collective adaptation. We also analyze the adaptation dynamics from an information-theoretic viewpoint and discuss self-organization induced by the dynamics of uncertainty, giving a novel view of collective adaptation.

Evidence for surprise minimization over value maximization in choice behavior

PubMed Central

Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H. B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl

2015-01-01

Classical economic models are predicated on the idea that the ultimate aim of choice is to maximize utility or reward. In contrast, an alternative perspective highlights the fact that adaptive behavior requires agents’ to model their environment and minimize surprise about the states they frequent. We propose that choice behavior can be more accurately accounted for by surprise minimization compared to reward or utility maximization alone. Minimizing surprise makes a prediction at variance with expected utility models; namely, that in addition to attaining valuable states, agents attempt to maximize the entropy over outcomes and thus ‘keep their options open’. We tested this prediction using a simple binary choice paradigm and show that human decision-making is better explained by surprise minimization compared to utility maximization. Furthermore, we replicated this entropy-seeking behavior in a control task with no explicit utilities. These findings highlight a limitation of purely economic motivations in explaining choice behavior and instead emphasize the importance of belief-based motivations. PMID:26564686

Strategy evolution driven by switching probabilities in structured multi-agent systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jianlei; Chen, Zengqiang; Li, Zhiqi

2017-10-01

Evolutionary mechanism driving the commonly seen cooperation among unrelated individuals is puzzling. Related models for evolutionary games on graphs traditionally assume that players imitate their successful neighbours with higher benefits. Notably, an implicit assumption here is that players are always able to acquire the required pay-off information. To relax this restrictive assumption, a contact-based model has been proposed, where switching probabilities between strategies drive the strategy evolution. However, the explicit and quantified relation between a player's switching probability for her strategies and the number of her neighbours remains unknown. This is especially a key point in heterogeneously structured system, where players may differ in the numbers of their neighbours. Focusing on this, here we present an augmented model by introducing an attenuation coefficient and evaluate its influence on the evolution dynamics. Results show that the individual influence on others is negatively correlated with the contact numbers specified by the network topologies. Results further provide the conditions under which the coexisting strategies can be calculated analytically.

Providing Effective Access to Shared Resources: A COIN Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Airiau, Stephane; Wolpert, David H.

2004-01-01

Managers of systems of shared resources typically have many separate goals. Examples are efficient utilization of the resources among its users and ensuring no user s satisfaction in the system falls below a preset minimal level. Since such goals will usually conflict with one another, either implicitly or explicitly the manager must determine the relative importance of the goals, encapsulating that into an overall utility function rating the possible behaviors of the entire system. Here we demonstrate a distributed, robust, and adaptive way to optimize that overall function. Our approach is to interpose adaptive agents between each user and the system, where each such agent is working to maximize its own private utility function. In turn, each such agent's function should be both relatively easy for the agent to learn to optimize, and "aligned" with the overall utility function of the system manager - an overall function that is based on but in general different from the satisfaction functions of the individual users. To ensure this we enhance the Collective INtelligence (COIN) framework to incorporate user satisfaction functions in the overall utility function of the system manager and accordingly in the associated private utility functions assigned to the users agents. We present experimental evaluations of different COIN-based private utility functions and demonstrate that those COIN-based functions outperform some natural alternatives.

Providing Effective Access to Shared Resources: A COIN Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Airiau, Stephane; Wolpert, David H.; Sen, Sandip; Tumer, Kagan

2003-01-01

Managers of systems of shared resources typically have many separate goals. Examples are efficient utilization of the resources among its users and ensuring no user's satisfaction in the system falls below a preset minimal level. Since such goals will usually conflict with one another, either implicitly or explicitly the manager must determine the relative importance of the goals, encapsulating that into an overall utility function rating the possible behaviors of the entire system. Here we demonstrate a distributed, robust, and adaptive way to optimize that overall function. Our approach is to interpose adaptive agents between each user and the system, where each such agent is working to maximize its own private utility function. In turn, each such agent's function should be both relatively easy for the agent to learn to optimize, and 'aligned' with the overall utility function of the system manager - an overall function that is based on but in general different from the satisfaction functions of the individual users. To ensure this we enhance the COllective INtelligence (COIN) framework to incorporate user satisfaction functions in the overall utility function of the system manager and accordingly in the associated private utility functions assigned to the users agents. We present experimental evaluations of different COIN-based private utility functions and demonstrate that those COIN-based functions outperform some natural alternatives.

Foraging swarms as Nash equilibria of dynamic games.

PubMed

Özgüler, Arif Bülent; Yildiz, Aykut

2014-06-01

The question of whether foraging swarms can form as a result of a noncooperative game played by individuals is shown here to have an affirmative answer. A dynamic game played by N agents in 1-D motion is introduced and models, for instance, a foraging ant colony. Each agent controls its velocity to minimize its total work done in a finite time interval. The game is shown to have a unique Nash equilibrium under two different foraging location specifications, and both equilibria display many features of a foraging swarm behavior observed in biological swarms. Explicit expressions are derived for pairwise distances between individuals of the swarm, swarm size, and swarm center location during foraging.

Simulating storm surge inundation and damage potential within complex port facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mawdsley, Robert; French, Jon; Fujiyama, Taku; Achutan, Kamalasudhan

2017-04-01

Storm surge inundation of port facilities can cause damage to critical elements of infrastructure, significantly disrupt port operations and cause downstream impacts on vital supply chains. A tidal surge in December 2013 in the North Sea partly flooded the Port of Immingham, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. This flooding caused damage to port and rail transport infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This research aims to improve resilience to storm surges using hydrodynamic modelling coupled to an agent-based model of port operations. Using the December 2013 event to validate flood extent, depth and duration, we ran a high resolution hydrodynamic simulation using the open source Telemac 2D finite element code. The underlying Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was derived from Environment Agency LiDAR data, with ground truthing of the flood defences along the port frontage. Major infrastructure and buildings are explicitly resolved with varying degrees of permeability. Telemac2D simulations are run in parallel and take only minutes on a single 16 cpu compute node. Inundation characteristics predicted using Telemac 2D differ from a simple Geographical Information System 'bath-tub' analysis of the DEM based upon horizontal application of the maximum water level across the port topography. The hydrodynamic simulation predicts less extensive flooding and more closely matches observed flood extent. It also provides more precise depth and duration curves. Detailed spatial flood depth and duration maps were generated for a range of tide and surge scenarios coupled to mean sea-level rise projections. These inundation scenarios can then be integrated with critical asset databases and an agent-based model of port operation (MARS) that is capable of simulating storm surge disruption along wider supply chains. Port operators are able to act on information from a particular flood scenario to perform adaptive responses (e.g. pre-emptive relocation of equipment), as well as estimate the likely duration of any disruption to port and supply chain operation. High resolution numerical inundation modelling, coupled to accurate storm surge forecasting and an agent based port operation model, thus has the potential to significantly reduce damage and disruption costs associated with storm surge impacts on port infrastructure and systems.

Predicting Pilot Behavior in Medium Scale Scenarios Using Game Theory and Reinforcement Learning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yildiz, Yildiray; Agogino, Adrian; Brat, Guillaume

2013-01-01

Effective automation is critical in achieving the capacity and safety goals of the Next Generation Air Traffic System. Unfortunately creating integration and validation tools for such automation is difficult as the interactions between automation and their human counterparts is complex and unpredictable. This validation becomes even more difficult as we integrate wide-reaching technologies that affect the behavior of different decision makers in the system such as pilots, controllers and airlines. While overt short-term behavior changes can be explicitly modeled with traditional agent modeling systems, subtle behavior changes caused by the integration of new technologies may snowball into larger problems and be very hard to detect. To overcome these obstacles, we show how integration of new technologies can be validated by learning behavior models based on goals. In this framework, human participants are not modeled explicitly. Instead, their goals are modeled and through reinforcement learning their actions are predicted. The main advantage to this approach is that modeling is done within the context of the entire system allowing for accurate modeling of all participants as they interact as a whole. In addition such an approach allows for efficient trade studies and feasibility testing on a wide range of automation scenarios. The goal of this paper is to test that such an approach is feasible. To do this we implement this approach using a simple discrete-state learning system on a scenario where 50 aircraft need to self-navigate using Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) information. In this scenario, we show how the approach can be used to predict the ability of pilots to adequately balance aircraft separation and fly efficient paths. We present results with several levels of complexity and airspace congestion.

Enhancing Congruence between Implicit Motives and Explicit Goal Commitments: Results of a Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Roch, Ramona M; Rösch, Andreas G; Schultheiss, Oliver C

2017-01-01

Objective: Theory and research suggest that the pursuit of personal goals that do not fit a person's affect-based implicit motives results in impaired emotional well-being, including increased symptoms of depression. The aim of this study was to evaluate an intervention designed to enhance motive-goal congruence and study its impact on well-being. Method: Seventy-four German students (mean age = 22.91, SD = 3.68; 64.9% female) without current psychopathology, randomly allocated to three groups: motivational feedback (FB; n = 25; participants learned about the fit between their implicit motives and explicit goals), FB + congruence-enhancement training (CET; n = 22; participants also engaged in exercises to increase the fit between their implicit motives and goals), and a no-intervention control group ( n = 27), were administered measures of implicit motives, personal goal commitments, happiness, depressive symptoms, and life satisfaction 3 weeks before (T1) and 6 weeks after (T2) treatment. Results: On two types of congruence measures derived from motive and goal assessments, treated participants showed increases in agentic (power and achievement) congruence, with improvements being most consistent in the FB+CET group. Treated participants also showed a trend-level depressive symptom reduction, but no changes on other well-being measures. Although increases in overall and agentic motivational congruence were associated with increases in affective well-being, treatment-based reduction of depressive symptoms was not mediated by treatment-based agentic congruence changes. Conclusion: These findings document that motivational congruence can be effectively enhanced, that changes in motivational congruence are associated with changes in affective well-being, and they suggest that individuals' implicit motives should be considered when personal goals are discussed in the therapeutic process.

Enhancing Congruence between Implicit Motives and Explicit Goal Commitments: Results of a Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Roch, Ramona M.; Rösch, Andreas G.; Schultheiss, Oliver C.

2017-01-01

Objective: Theory and research suggest that the pursuit of personal goals that do not fit a person's affect-based implicit motives results in impaired emotional well-being, including increased symptoms of depression. The aim of this study was to evaluate an intervention designed to enhance motive-goal congruence and study its impact on well-being. Method: Seventy-four German students (mean age = 22.91, SD = 3.68; 64.9% female) without current psychopathology, randomly allocated to three groups: motivational feedback (FB; n = 25; participants learned about the fit between their implicit motives and explicit goals), FB + congruence-enhancement training (CET; n = 22; participants also engaged in exercises to increase the fit between their implicit motives and goals), and a no-intervention control group (n = 27), were administered measures of implicit motives, personal goal commitments, happiness, depressive symptoms, and life satisfaction 3 weeks before (T1) and 6 weeks after (T2) treatment. Results: On two types of congruence measures derived from motive and goal assessments, treated participants showed increases in agentic (power and achievement) congruence, with improvements being most consistent in the FB+CET group. Treated participants also showed a trend-level depressive symptom reduction, but no changes on other well-being measures. Although increases in overall and agentic motivational congruence were associated with increases in affective well-being, treatment-based reduction of depressive symptoms was not mediated by treatment-based agentic congruence changes. Conclusion: These findings document that motivational congruence can be effectively enhanced, that changes in motivational congruence are associated with changes in affective well-being, and they suggest that individuals' implicit motives should be considered when personal goals are discussed in the therapeutic process. PMID:28955267

A Systematic Review of Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation Applications in the Higher Education Domain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gu, X.; Blackmore, K. L.

2015-01-01

This paper presents the results of a systematic review of agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) applications in the higher education (HE) domain. Agent-based modelling is a "bottom-up" modelling paradigm in which system-level behaviour (macro) is modelled through the behaviour of individual local-level agent interactions (micro).…

An explicit asymptotic model for the surface wave in a viscoelastic half-space based on applying Rabotnov's fractional exponential integral operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilde, M. V.; Sergeeva, N. V.

2018-05-01

An explicit asymptotic model extracting the contribution of a surface wave to the dynamic response of a viscoelastic half-space is derived. Fractional exponential Rabotnov's integral operators are used for describing of material properties. The model is derived by extracting the principal part of the poles corresponding to the surface waves after applying Laplace and Fourier transforms. The simplified equations for the originals are written by using power series expansions. Padè approximation is constructed to unite short-time and long-time models. The form of this approximation allows to formulate the explicit model using a fractional exponential Rabotnov's integral operator with parameters depending on the properties of surface wave. The applicability of derived models is studied by comparing with the exact solutions of a model problem. It is revealed that the model based on Padè approximation is highly effective for all the possible time domains.

Modeling Task Switching without Switching Tasks: A Short-Term Priming Account of Explicitly Cued Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schneider, Darryl W.; Logan, Gordon D.

2005-01-01

Switch costs in task switching are commonly attributed to an executive control process of task-set reconfiguration, particularly in studies involving the explicit task-cuing procedure. The authors propose an alternative account of explicitly cued performance that is based on 2 mechanisms: priming of cue encoding from residual activation of cues in…

Agent autonomy approach to probabilistic physics-of-failure modeling of complex dynamic systems with interacting failure mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromek, Katherine Emily

A novel computational and inference framework of the physics-of-failure (PoF) reliability modeling for complex dynamic systems has been established in this research. The PoF-based reliability models are used to perform a real time simulation of system failure processes, so that the system level reliability modeling would constitute inferences from checking the status of component level reliability at any given time. The "agent autonomy" concept is applied as a solution method for the system-level probabilistic PoF-based (i.e. PPoF-based) modeling. This concept originated from artificial intelligence (AI) as a leading intelligent computational inference in modeling of multi agents systems (MAS). The concept of agent autonomy in the context of reliability modeling was first proposed by M. Azarkhail [1], where a fundamentally new idea of system representation by autonomous intelligent agents for the purpose of reliability modeling was introduced. Contribution of the current work lies in the further development of the agent anatomy concept, particularly the refined agent classification within the scope of the PoF-based system reliability modeling, new approaches to the learning and the autonomy properties of the intelligent agents, and modeling interacting failure mechanisms within the dynamic engineering system. The autonomous property of intelligent agents is defined as agent's ability to self-activate, deactivate or completely redefine their role in the analysis. This property of agents and the ability to model interacting failure mechanisms of the system elements makes the agent autonomy fundamentally different from all existing methods of probabilistic PoF-based reliability modeling. 1. Azarkhail, M., "Agent Autonomy Approach to Physics-Based Reliability Modeling of Structures and Mechanical Systems", PhD thesis, University of Maryland, College Park, 2007.

Agent-Based Modeling of Chronic Diseases: A Narrative Review and Future Research Directions

PubMed Central

Lawley, Mark A.; Siscovick, David S.; Zhang, Donglan; Pagán, José A.

2016-01-01

The United States is experiencing an epidemic of chronic disease. As the US population ages, health care providers and policy makers urgently need decision models that provide systematic, credible prediction regarding the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases to improve population health management and medical decision-making. Agent-based modeling is a promising systems science approach that can model complex interactions and processes related to chronic health conditions, such as adaptive behaviors, feedback loops, and contextual effects. This article introduces agent-based modeling by providing a narrative review of agent-based models of chronic disease and identifying the characteristics of various chronic health conditions that must be taken into account to build effective clinical- and policy-relevant models. We also identify barriers to adopting agent-based models to study chronic diseases. Finally, we discuss future research directions of agent-based modeling applied to problems related to specific chronic health conditions. PMID:27236380

Agent-Based Modeling of Chronic Diseases: A Narrative Review and Future Research Directions.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Lawley, Mark A; Siscovick, David S; Zhang, Donglan; Pagán, José A

2016-05-26

The United States is experiencing an epidemic of chronic disease. As the US population ages, health care providers and policy makers urgently need decision models that provide systematic, credible prediction regarding the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases to improve population health management and medical decision-making. Agent-based modeling is a promising systems science approach that can model complex interactions and processes related to chronic health conditions, such as adaptive behaviors, feedback loops, and contextual effects. This article introduces agent-based modeling by providing a narrative review of agent-based models of chronic disease and identifying the characteristics of various chronic health conditions that must be taken into account to build effective clinical- and policy-relevant models. We also identify barriers to adopting agent-based models to study chronic diseases. Finally, we discuss future research directions of agent-based modeling applied to problems related to specific chronic health conditions.

A Watershed-based spatially-explicit demonstration of an Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework for Ecosystem Services in the Coal River Basin (WV, USA)

EPA Science Inventory

We demonstrate a spatially-explicit regional assessment of current condition of aquatic ecoservices in the Coal River Basin (CRB), with limited sensitivity analysis for the atmospheric contaminant mercury. The integrated modeling framework (IMF) forecasts water quality and quant...

Representing Micro-Macro Linkages by Actor-Based Dynamic Network Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Snijders, Tom A. B.; Steglich, Christian E. G.

2015-01-01

Stochastic actor-based models for network dynamics have the primary aim of statistical inference about processes of network change, but may be regarded as a kind of agent-based models. Similar to many other agent-based models, they are based on local rules for actor behavior. Different from many other agent-based models, by including elements of…

AGENT-BASED MODELS IN EMPIRICAL SOCIAL RESEARCH*

PubMed Central

Bruch, Elizabeth; Atwell, Jon

2014-01-01

Agent-based modeling has become increasingly popular in recent years, but there is still no codified set of recommendations or practices for how to use these models within a program of empirical research. This article provides ideas and practical guidelines drawn from sociology, biology, computer science, epidemiology, and statistics. We first discuss the motivations for using agent-based models in both basic science and policy-oriented social research. Next, we provide an overview of methods and strategies for incorporating data on behavior and populations into agent-based models, and review techniques for validating and testing the sensitivity of agent-based models. We close with suggested directions for future research. PMID:25983351

Opinion Dynamics with Disagreement and Modulated Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sîrbu, Alina; Loreto, Vittorio; Servedio, Vito D. P.; Tria, Francesca

2013-04-01

Opinion dynamics concerns social processes through which populations or groups of individuals agree or disagree on specific issues. As such, modelling opinion dynamics represents an important research area that has been progressively acquiring relevance in many different domains. Existing approaches have mostly represented opinions through discrete binary or continuous variables by exploring a whole panoply of cases: e.g. independence, noise, external effects, multiple issues. In most of these cases the crucial ingredient is an attractive dynamics through which similar or similar enough agents get closer. Only rarely the possibility of explicit disagreement has been taken into account (i.e., the possibility for a repulsive interaction among individuals' opinions), and mostly for discrete or 1-dimensional opinions, through the introduction of additional model parameters. Here we introduce a new model of opinion formation, which focuses on the interplay between the possibility of explicit disagreement, modulated in a self-consistent way by the existing opinions' overlaps between the interacting individuals, and the effect of external information on the system. Opinions are modelled as a vector of continuous variables related to multiple possible choices for an issue. Information can be modulated to account for promoting multiple possible choices. Numerical results show that extreme information results in segregation and has a limited effect on the population, while milder messages have better success and a cohesion effect. Additionally, the initial condition plays an important role, with the population forming one or multiple clusters based on the initial average similarity between individuals, with a transition point depending on the number of opinion choices.

Modeling marine oily wastewater treatment by a probabilistic agent-based approach.

PubMed

Jing, Liang; Chen, Bing; Zhang, Baiyu; Ye, Xudong

2018-02-01

This study developed a novel probabilistic agent-based approach for modeling of marine oily wastewater treatment processes. It begins first by constructing a probability-based agent simulation model, followed by a global sensitivity analysis and a genetic algorithm-based calibration. The proposed modeling approach was tested through a case study of the removal of naphthalene from marine oily wastewater using UV irradiation. The removal of naphthalene was described by an agent-based simulation model using 8 types of agents and 11 reactions. Each reaction was governed by a probability parameter to determine its occurrence. The modeling results showed that the root mean square errors between modeled and observed removal rates were 8.73 and 11.03% for calibration and validation runs, respectively. Reaction competition was analyzed by comparing agent-based reaction probabilities, while agents' heterogeneity was visualized by plotting their real-time spatial distribution, showing a strong potential for reactor design and process optimization. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of the Price-Volume Approach in Cases of Innovative Drugs Where Value-Based Pricing is Inadequate: Description of Real Experiences in Italy.

PubMed

Messori, Andrea

2016-08-01

Several cases of expensive drugs designed for large patient populations (e.g. sofosbuvir) have raised a complex question in terms of drug pricing. Even assuming value-based pricing, the treatment with these drugs of all eligible patients would have an immense budgetary impact, which is unsustainable also for the richest countries. This raises the need to reduce the prices of these agents in comparison with those suggested by the value-based approach and to devise new pricing methods that can achieve this goal. The present study discusses in detail the following two methods: (i) The approach based on setting nation-wide budget thresholds for individual innovative agents in which a fixed proportion of the historical pharmaceutical expenditure represents the maximum budget attributable to an innovative treatment; (ii) The approach based on nation-wide price-volume agreements in which drug prices are progressively reduced as more patients receive the treatment. The first approach has been developed in the USA by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review and has been applied to PCSK9 inhibitors (alirocumab and evolocumab). The second approach has been designed for the Italian market and has found a systematic application to manage the price of ranibizumab, sofosbuvir, and PCSK9 inhibitors. While, in the past, price-volume agreements have been applied only on an empirical basis (i.e. in the absence of any quantitative theoretical rule), more recently some explicit mathematical models have been described. The performance of these models is now being evaluated on the basis of the real-world experiences conducted in some European countries, especially Italy.

An Active Learning Exercise for Introducing Agent-Based Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pinder, Jonathan P.

2013-01-01

Recent developments in agent-based modeling as a method of systems analysis and optimization indicate that students in business analytics need an introduction to the terminology, concepts, and framework of agent-based modeling. This article presents an active learning exercise for MBA students in business analytics that demonstrates agent-based…

A stock-flow consistent input-output model with applications to energy price shocks, interest rates, and heat emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, Matthew; Hartley, Brian; Richters, Oliver

2015-01-01

By synthesizing stock-flow consistent models, input-output models, and aspects of ecological macroeconomics, a method is developed to simultaneously model monetary flows through the financial system, flows of produced goods and services through the real economy, and flows of physical materials through the natural environment. This paper highlights the linkages between the physical environment and the economic system by emphasizing the role of the energy industry. A conceptual model is developed in general form with an arbitrary number of sectors, while emphasizing connections with the agent-based, econophysics, and complexity economics literature. First, we use the model to challenge claims that 0% interest rates are a necessary condition for a stationary economy and conduct a stability analysis within the parameter space of interest rates and consumption parameters of an economy in stock-flow equilibrium. Second, we analyze the role of energy price shocks in contributing to recessions, incorporating several propagation and amplification mechanisms. Third, implied heat emissions from energy conversion and the effect of anthropogenic heat flux on climate change are considered in light of a minimal single-layer atmosphere climate model, although the model is only implicitly, not explicitly, linked to the economic model.

On the probability of extinction of the Haiti cholera epidemic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertuzzo, Enrico; Finger, Flavio; Mari, Lorenzo; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

2014-05-01

Nearly 3 years after its appearance in Haiti, cholera has already exacted more than 8,200 deaths and 670,000 reported cases and it is feared to become endemic. However, no clear evidence of a stable environmental reservoir of pathogenic Vibrio cholerae, the infective agent of the disease, has emerged so far, suggesting that the transmission cycle of the disease is being maintained by bacteria freshly shed by infected individuals. Thus in principle cholera could possibly be eradicated from Haiti. Here, we develop a framework for the estimation of the probability of extinction of the epidemic based on current epidemiological dynamics and health-care practice. Cholera spreading is modelled by an individual-based spatially-explicit stochastic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible, infected and recovered individuals hosted in different local communities connected through hydrologic and human mobility networks. Our results indicate that the probability that the epidemic goes extinct before the end of 2016 is of the order of 1%. This low probability of extinction highlights the need for more targeted and effective interventions to possibly stop cholera in Haiti.

On explicit algebraic stress models for complex turbulent flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gatski, T. B.; Speziale, C. G.

1992-01-01

Explicit algebraic stress models that are valid for three-dimensional turbulent flows in noninertial frames are systematically derived from a hierarchy of second-order closure models. This represents a generalization of the model derived by Pope who based his analysis on the Launder, Reece, and Rodi model restricted to two-dimensional turbulent flows in an inertial frame. The relationship between the new models and traditional algebraic stress models -- as well as anistropic eddy visosity models -- is theoretically established. The need for regularization is demonstrated in an effort to explain why traditional algebraic stress models have failed in complex flows. It is also shown that these explicit algebraic stress models can shed new light on what second-order closure models predict for the equilibrium states of homogeneous turbulent flows and can serve as a useful alternative in practical computations.

SPARK: A Framework for Multi-Scale Agent-Based Biomedical Modeling.

PubMed

Solovyev, Alexey; Mikheev, Maxim; Zhou, Leming; Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta; Ziraldo, Cordelia; An, Gary; Vodovotz, Yoram; Mi, Qi

2010-01-01

Multi-scale modeling of complex biological systems remains a central challenge in the systems biology community. A method of dynamic knowledge representation known as agent-based modeling enables the study of higher level behavior emerging from discrete events performed by individual components. With the advancement of computer technology, agent-based modeling has emerged as an innovative technique to model the complexities of systems biology. In this work, the authors describe SPARK (Simple Platform for Agent-based Representation of Knowledge), a framework for agent-based modeling specifically designed for systems-level biomedical model development. SPARK is a stand-alone application written in Java. It provides a user-friendly interface, and a simple programming language for developing Agent-Based Models (ABMs). SPARK has the following features specialized for modeling biomedical systems: 1) continuous space that can simulate real physical space; 2) flexible agent size and shape that can represent the relative proportions of various cell types; 3) multiple spaces that can concurrently simulate and visualize multiple scales in biomedical models; 4) a convenient graphical user interface. Existing ABMs of diabetic foot ulcers and acute inflammation were implemented in SPARK. Models of identical complexity were run in both NetLogo and SPARK; the SPARK-based models ran two to three times faster.

Translating visual information into action predictions: Statistical learning in action and nonaction contexts.

PubMed

Monroy, Claire D; Gerson, Sarah A; Hunnius, Sabine

2018-05-01

Humans are sensitive to the statistical regularities in action sequences carried out by others. In the present eyetracking study, we investigated whether this sensitivity can support the prediction of upcoming actions when observing unfamiliar action sequences. In two between-subjects conditions, we examined whether observers would be more sensitive to statistical regularities in sequences performed by a human agent versus self-propelled 'ghost' events. Secondly, we investigated whether regularities are learned better when they are associated with contingent effects. Both implicit and explicit measures of learning were compared between agent and ghost conditions. Implicit learning was measured via predictive eye movements to upcoming actions or events, and explicit learning was measured via both uninstructed reproduction of the action sequences and verbal reports of the regularities. The findings revealed that participants, regardless of condition, readily learned the regularities and made correct predictive eye movements to upcoming events during online observation. However, different patterns of explicit-learning outcomes emerged following observation: Participants were most likely to re-create the sequence regularities and to verbally report them when they had observed an actor create a contingent effect. These results suggest that the shift from implicit predictions to explicit knowledge of what has been learned is facilitated when observers perceive another agent's actions and when these actions cause effects. These findings are discussed with respect to the potential role of the motor system in modulating how statistical regularities are learned and used to modify behavior.

An integrated modeling framework of socio-economic, biophysical, and hydrological processes in Midwest landscapes: Remote sensing data, agro-hydrological model, and agent-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Deng

Intensive human-environment interactions are taking place in Midwestern agricultural systems. An integrated modeling framework is suitable for predicting dynamics of key variables of the socio-economic, biophysical, hydrological processes as well as exploring the potential transitions of system states in response to changes of the driving factors. The purpose of this dissertation is to address issues concerning the interacting processes and consequent changes in land use, water balance, and water quality using an integrated modeling framework. This dissertation is composed of three studies in the same agricultural watershed, the Clear Creek watershed in East-Central Iowa. In the first study, a parsimonious hydrologic model, the Threshold-Exceedance-Lagrangian Model (TELM), is further developed into RS-TELM (Remote Sensing TELM) to integrate remote sensing vegetation data for estimating evapotranspiration. The goodness of fit of RS-TELM is comparable to a well-calibrated SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and even slightly superior in capturing intra-seasonal variability of stream flow. The integration of RS LAI (Leaf Area Index) data improves the model's performance especially over the agriculture dominated landscapes. The input of rainfall datasets with spatially explicit information plays a critical role in increasing the model's goodness of fit. In the second study, an agent-based model is developed to simulate farmers' decisions on crop type and fertilizer application in response to commodity and biofuel crop prices. The comparison between simulated crop land percentage and crop rotations with satellite-based land cover data suggest that farmers may be underestimating the effects that continuous corn production has on yields (yield drag). The simulation results given alternative market scenarios based on a survey of agricultural land owners and operators in the Clear Creek Watershed show that, farmers see cellulosic biofuel feedstock production in the form of perennial grasses or corn stover as a more risky enterprise than their current crop production systems, likely because of market and production risks and lock in effects. As a result farmers do not follow a simple farm-profit maximization rule. In the third study, the consequent water quantity and quality change of the potential land use transitions given alternative biofuel crop market scenarios is explored in a case study in the Clear Creek watershed. A computer program is developed to implement the loose-coupling strategy to couple an agent-based land use model with SWAT. The simulation results show that watershed-scale water quantity (water yield and runoff) and quality variables (sediment and nutrient loads) decrease in values as switchgrass price increases. However, negligence of farmers risk aversions towards biofuel crop adoption would cause overestimation of the impacts of switchgrass price on water quantity and quality.

Consentaneous Agent-Based and Stochastic Model of the Financial Markets

PubMed Central

Gontis, Vygintas; Kononovicius, Aleksejus

2014-01-01

We are looking for the agent-based treatment of the financial markets considering necessity to build bridges between microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, phenomenological modeling. The acknowledgment that agent-based modeling framework, which may provide qualitative and quantitative understanding of the financial markets, is very ambiguous emphasizes the exceptional value of well defined analytically tractable agent systems. Herding as one of the behavior peculiarities considered in the behavioral finance is the main property of the agent interactions we deal with in this contribution. Looking for the consentaneous agent-based and macroscopic approach we combine two origins of the noise: exogenous one, related to the information flow, and endogenous one, arising form the complex stochastic dynamics of agents. As a result we propose a three state agent-based herding model of the financial markets. From this agent-based model we derive a set of stochastic differential equations, which describes underlying macroscopic dynamics of agent population and log price in the financial markets. The obtained solution is then subjected to the exogenous noise, which shapes instantaneous return fluctuations. We test both Gaussian and q-Gaussian noise as a source of the short term fluctuations. The resulting model of the return in the financial markets with the same set of parameters reproduces empirical probability and spectral densities of absolute return observed in New York, Warsaw and NASDAQ OMX Vilnius Stock Exchanges. Our result confirms the prevalent idea in behavioral finance that herding interactions may be dominant over agent rationality and contribute towards bubble formation. PMID:25029364

The Use of Modeling-Based Text to Improve Students' Modeling Competencies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jong, Jing-Ping; Chiu, Mei-Hung; Chung, Shiao-Lan

2015-01-01

This study investigated the effects of a modeling-based text on 10th graders' modeling competencies. Fifteen 10th graders read a researcher-developed modeling-based science text on the ideal gas law that included explicit descriptions and representations of modeling processes (i.e., model selection, model construction, model validation, model…

Spin-lock imaging of exogenous exchange-based contrast agents to assess tissue pH.

PubMed

Zu, Zhongliang; Li, Hua; Jiang, Xiaoyu; Gore, John C

2018-01-01

Some X-ray contrast agents contain exchangeable protons that give rise to exchange-based effects on MRI, including chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST). However, CEST has poor specificity to explicit exchange parameters. Spin-lock sequences at high field are also sensitive to chemical exchange. Here, we evaluate whether spin-locking techniques can detect the contrast agent iohexol in vivo after intravenous administration, and their potential for measuring changes in tissue pH. Two metrics of contrast based on R 1ρ , the spin lattice relaxation rate in the rotating frame, were derived from the behavior of R 1ρ at different locking fields. Solutions containing iohexol at different concentrations and pH were used to evaluate the ability of the two metrics to quantify exchange effects. Images were also acquired from rat brains bearing tumors before and after intravenous injections of iohexol to evaluate the potential of spin-lock techniques for detecting the agent and pH variations. The two metrics were found to depend separately on either agent concentration or pH. Spin-lock imaging may therefore provide specific quantification of iohexol concentration and the iohexol-water exchange rate, which reports on pH. Spin-lock techniques may be used to assess the dynamics of intravenous contrast agents and detect extracellular acidification. Magn Reson Med 79:298-305, 2018. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

The highly intelligent virtual agents for modeling financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, G.; Chen, Y.; Huang, J. P.

2016-02-01

Researchers have borrowed many theories from statistical physics, like ensemble, Ising model, etc., to study complex adaptive systems through agent-based modeling. However, one fundamental difference between entities (such as spins) in physics and micro-units in complex adaptive systems is that the latter are usually with high intelligence, such as investors in financial markets. Although highly intelligent virtual agents are essential for agent-based modeling to play a full role in the study of complex adaptive systems, how to create such agents is still an open question. Hence, we propose three principles for designing high artificial intelligence in financial markets and then build a specific class of agents called iAgents based on these three principles. Finally, we evaluate the intelligence of iAgents through virtual index trading in two different stock markets. For comparison, we also include three other types of agents in this contest, namely, random traders, agents from the wealth game (modified on the famous minority game), and agents from an upgraded wealth game. As a result, iAgents perform the best, which gives a well support for the three principles. This work offers a general framework for the further development of agent-based modeling for various kinds of complex adaptive systems.

GAMBIT: A Parameterless Model-Based Evolutionary Algorithm for Mixed-Integer Problems.

PubMed

Sadowski, Krzysztof L; Thierens, Dirk; Bosman, Peter A N

2018-01-01

Learning and exploiting problem structure is one of the key challenges in optimization. This is especially important for black-box optimization (BBO) where prior structural knowledge of a problem is not available. Existing model-based Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) are very efficient at learning structure in both the discrete, and in the continuous domain. In this article, discrete and continuous model-building mechanisms are integrated for the Mixed-Integer (MI) domain, comprising discrete and continuous variables. We revisit a recently introduced model-based evolutionary algorithm for the MI domain, the Genetic Algorithm for Model-Based mixed-Integer opTimization (GAMBIT). We extend GAMBIT with a parameterless scheme that allows for practical use of the algorithm without the need to explicitly specify any parameters. We furthermore contrast GAMBIT with other model-based alternatives. The ultimate goal of processing mixed dependences explicitly in GAMBIT is also addressed by introducing a new mechanism for the explicit exploitation of mixed dependences. We find that processing mixed dependences with this novel mechanism allows for more efficient optimization. We further contrast the parameterless GAMBIT with Mixed-Integer Evolution Strategies (MIES) and other state-of-the-art MI optimization algorithms from the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) commercial algorithm suite on problems with and without constraints, and show that GAMBIT is capable of solving problems where variable dependences prevent many algorithms from successfully optimizing them.

Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression

DOE PAGES

Schryver, Jack; Nutaro, James; Shankar, Mallikarjun

2015-10-30

An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. The models are translations of basic elements of an established system dynamics model of diabetes. In this model hierarchy, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated U.S. population, was dis-aggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. Moreover, the four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease statesmore » in the system dynamics model, while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. In all three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model. The performances of the baseline agent-based model and its extensions illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.« less

Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schryver, Jack; Nutaro, James; Shankar, Mallikarjun

An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. The models are translations of basic elements of an established system dynamics model of diabetes. In this model hierarchy, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated U.S. population, was dis-aggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. Moreover, the four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease statesmore » in the system dynamics model, while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. In all three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model. The performances of the baseline agent-based model and its extensions illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.« less

Brain activation for spontaneous and explicit false belief tasks overlaps: new fMRI evidence on belief processing and violation of expectation

PubMed Central

Desmet, Charlotte; Nijhof, Annabel; Wiersema, Jan R.; Brass, Marcel

2017-01-01

Abstract There is extensive discussion on whether spontaneous and explicit forms of ToM are based on the same cognitive/neural mechanisms or rather reflect qualitatively different processes. For the first time, we analyzed the BOLD signal for false belief processing by directly comparing spontaneous and explicit ToM task versions. In both versions, participants watched videos of a scene including an agent who acquires a true or false belief about the location of an object (belief formation phase). At the end of the movies (outcome phase), participants had to react to the presence of the object. During the belief formation phase, greater activity was found for false vs true belief trials in the right posterior parietal cortex. The ROI analysis of the right temporo-parietal junction (TPJ), confirmed this observation. Moreover, the anterior medial prefrontal cortex (aMPFC) was active during the outcome phase, being sensitive to violation of both the participant’s and agent’s expectations about the location of the object. Activity in the TPJ and aMPFC was not modulated by the spontaneous/explicit task. Overall, these data show that neural mechanisms for spontaneous and explicit ToM overlap. Interestingly, a dissociation between TPJ and aMPFC for belief tracking and outcome evaluation, respectively, was also found. PMID:27683425

Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: Lessons from ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2005-01-01

Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2005-11-01

Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

AST: Activity-Security-Trust driven modeling of time varying networks

PubMed Central

Wang, Jian; Xu, Jiake; Liu, Yanheng; Deng, Weiwen

2016-01-01

Network modeling is a flexible mathematical structure that enables to identify statistical regularities and structural principles hidden in complex systems. The majority of recent driving forces in modeling complex networks are originated from activity, in which an activity potential of a time invariant function is introduced to identify agents’ interactions and to construct an activity-driven model. However, the new-emerging network evolutions are already deeply coupled with not only the explicit factors (e.g. activity) but also the implicit considerations (e.g. security and trust), so more intrinsic driving forces behind should be integrated into the modeling of time varying networks. The agents undoubtedly seek to build a time-dependent trade-off among activity, security, and trust in generating a new connection to another. Thus, we reasonably propose the Activity-Security-Trust (AST) driven model through synthetically considering the explicit and implicit driving forces (e.g. activity, security, and trust) underlying the decision process. AST-driven model facilitates to more accurately capture highly dynamical network behaviors and figure out the complex evolution process, allowing a profound understanding of the effects of security and trust in driving network evolution, and improving the biases induced by only involving activity representations in analyzing the dynamical processes. PMID:26888717

A Micro-Level Data-Calibrated Agent-Based Model: The Synergy between Microsimulation and Agent-Based Modeling.

PubMed

Singh, Karandeep; Ahn, Chang-Won; Paik, Euihyun; Bae, Jang Won; Lee, Chun-Hee

2018-01-01

Artificial life (ALife) examines systems related to natural life, its processes, and its evolution, using simulations with computer models, robotics, and biochemistry. In this article, we focus on the computer modeling, or "soft," aspects of ALife and prepare a framework for scientists and modelers to be able to support such experiments. The framework is designed and built to be a parallel as well as distributed agent-based modeling environment, and does not require end users to have expertise in parallel or distributed computing. Furthermore, we use this framework to implement a hybrid model using microsimulation and agent-based modeling techniques to generate an artificial society. We leverage this artificial society to simulate and analyze population dynamics using Korean population census data. The agents in this model derive their decisional behaviors from real data (microsimulation feature) and interact among themselves (agent-based modeling feature) to proceed in the simulation. The behaviors, interactions, and social scenarios of the agents are varied to perform an analysis of population dynamics. We also estimate the future cost of pension policies based on the future population structure of the artificial society. The proposed framework and model demonstrates how ALife techniques can be used by researchers in relation to social issues and policies.

Complexity of life via collective mind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zak, Michail

2004-01-01

e mind is introduced as a set of simple intelligent units (say, neurons, or interacting agents), which can communicate by exchange of information without explicit global control. Incomplete information is compensated by a sequence of random guesses symmetrically distributed around expectations with prescribed variances. Both the expectations and variances are the invariants characterizing the whole class of agents. These invariants are stored as parameters of the collective mind, while they contribute into dynamical formalism of the agents' evolution, and in particular, into the reflective chains of their nested abstract images of the selves and non-selves. The proposed model consists of the system of stochastic differential equations in the Langevin form representing the motor dynamics, and the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation representing the mental dynamics (Motor dynamics describes the motion in physical space, while mental dynamics simulates the evolution of initial errors in terms of the probability density). The main departure of this model from Newtonian and statistical physics is due to a feedback from the mental to the motor dynamics which makes the Fokker-Planck equation nonlinear. Interpretation of this model from mathematical and physical viewpoints, as well as possible interpretation from biological, psychological, and social viewpoints are discussed. The model is illustrated by the dynamics of a dialog.

A CSP-Based Agent Modeling Framework for the Cougaar Agent-Based Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gracanin, Denis; Singh, H. Lally; Eltoweissy, Mohamed; Hinchey, Michael G.; Bohner, Shawn A.

2005-01-01

Cognitive Agent Architecture (Cougaar) is a Java-based architecture for large-scale distributed agent-based applications. A Cougaar agent is an autonomous software entity with behaviors that represent a real-world entity (e.g., a business process). A Cougaar-based Model Driven Architecture approach, currently under development, uses a description of system's functionality (requirements) to automatically implement the system in Cougaar. The Communicating Sequential Processes (CSP) formalism is used for the formal validation of the generated system. Two main agent components, a blackboard and a plugin, are modeled as CSP processes. A set of channels represents communications between the blackboard and individual plugins. The blackboard is represented as a CSP process that communicates with every agent in the collection. The developed CSP-based Cougaar modeling framework provides a starting point for a more complete formal verification of the automatically generated Cougaar code. Currently it is used to verify the behavior of an individual agent in terms of CSP properties and to analyze the corresponding Cougaar society.

Evolution of Implicit and Explicit Communication in Mobile Robots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Greeff, Joachim; Nolfi, Stefano

This work investigates the conditions in which a population of embodied agents evolved for the ability to display coordinated/cooperative skills can develop an ability to communicate, whether and to what extent the evolved communication system can complexify during the course of the evolutionary process, and how the characteristics of such communication system varies evolutionarily. The analysis of the obtained results indicates that evolving robots develop a capacity to access/generate information which has a communicative value, an ability to produce different signals encoding useful regularities, and an ability to react appropriately to explicit and implicit signals. The analysis of the obtained results allows us to formulate detailed hypothesis on the evolution of communication for what concern aspects such us: (i) how communication can emerge from a population of initially non-communicating agents, (ii) how communication systems can complexify, (iii) how signals/meanings can originate and how they can be grounded in agents' sensory-motor states.

Strategies of offspring investment and dispersal in a spatially structured environment: a theoretical study using ants.

PubMed

Cronin, Adam L; Loeuille, Nicolas; Monnin, Thibaud

2016-02-05

Offspring investment strategies vary markedly between and within taxa, and much of this variation is thought to stem from the trade-off between offspring size and number. While producing larger offspring can increase their competitive ability, this often comes at a cost to their colonization ability. This competition-colonization trade-off (CCTO) is thought to be an important mechanism supporting coexistence of alternative strategies in a wide range of taxa. However, the relative importance of an alternative and possibly synergistic mechanism-spatial structuring of the environment-remains the topic of some debate. In this study, we explore the influence of these mechanisms on metacommunity structure using an agent-based model built around variable life-history traits. Our model combines explicit resource competition and spatial dynamics, allowing us to tease-apart the influence of, and explore the interaction between, the CCTO and the spatial structure of the environment. We test our model using two reproductive strategies which represent extremes of the CCTO and are common in ants. Our simulations show that colonisers outperform competitors in environments subject to higher temporal and spatial heterogeneity and are favoured when agents mature late and invest heavily in reproduction, whereas competitors dominate in low-disturbance, high resource environments and when maintenance costs are low. Varying life-history parameters has a marked influence on coexistence conditions and yields evolutionary stable strategies for both modes of reproduction. Nonetheless, we show that these strategies can coexist over a wide range of life-history and environmental parameter values, and that coexistence can in most cases be explained by a CCTO. By explicitly considering space, we are also able to demonstrate the importance of the interaction between dispersal and landscape structure. The CCTO permits species employing different reproductive strategies to coexist over a wide range of life-history and environmental parameters, and is likely to be an important factor in structuring ant communities. Our consideration of space highlights the importance of dispersal, which can limit the success of low-dispersers through kin competition, and enhance coexistence conditions for different strategies in spatially structured environments.

Implicit and explicit self-esteem and their reciprocal relationship with symptoms of depression and social anxiety: a longitudinal study in adolescents.

PubMed

van Tuijl, Lonneke A; de Jong, Peter J; Sportel, B Esther; de Hullu, Eva; Nauta, Maaike H

2014-03-01

A negative self-view is a prominent factor in most cognitive vulnerability models of depression and anxiety. Recently, there has been increased attention to differentiate between the implicit (automatic) and the explicit (reflective) processing of self-related evaluations. This longitudinal study aimed to test the association between implicit and explicit self-esteem and symptoms of adolescent depression and social anxiety disorder. Two complementary models were tested: the vulnerability model and the scarring effect model. Participants were 1641 first and second year pupils of secondary schools in the Netherlands. The Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, self-esteem Implicit Association Test and Revised Child Anxiety and Depression Scale were completed to measure explicit self-esteem, implicit self-esteem and symptoms of social anxiety disorder (SAD) and major depressive disorder (MDD), respectively, at baseline and two-year follow-up. Explicit self-esteem at baseline was associated with symptoms of MDD and SAD at follow-up. Symptomatology at baseline was not associated with explicit self-esteem at follow-up. Implicit self-esteem was not associated with symptoms of MDD or SAD in either direction. We relied on self-report measures of MDD and SAD symptomatology. Also, findings are based on a non-clinical sample. Our findings support the vulnerability model, and not the scarring effect model. The implications of these findings suggest support of an explicit self-esteem intervention to prevent increases in MDD and SAD symptomatology in non-clinical adolescents. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Collective Case Study of Secondary Students' Model-Based Inquiry on Natural Selection through Programming in an Agent-Based Modeling Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xiang, Lin

2011-01-01

This is a collective case study seeking to develop detailed descriptions of how programming an agent-based simulation influences a group of 8th grade students' model-based inquiry (MBI) by examining students' agent-based programmable modeling (ABPM) processes and the learning outcomes. The context of the present study was a biology unit on…

Uncertainty in spatially explicit animal dispersal models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mooij, Wolf M.; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2003-01-01

Uncertainty in estimates of survival of dispersing animals is a vexing difficulty in conservation biology. The current notion is that this uncertainty decreases the usefulness of spatially explicit population models in particular. We examined this problem by comparing dispersal models of three levels of complexity: (1) an event-based binomial model that considers only the occurrence of mortality or arrival, (2) a temporally explicit exponential model that employs mortality and arrival rates, and (3) a spatially explicit grid-walk model that simulates the movement of animals through an artificial landscape. Each model was fitted to the same set of field data. A first objective of the paper is to illustrate how the maximum-likelihood method can be used in all three cases to estimate the means and confidence limits for the relevant model parameters, given a particular set of data on dispersal survival. Using this framework we show that the structure of the uncertainty for all three models is strikingly similar. In fact, the results of our unified approach imply that spatially explicit dispersal models, which take advantage of information on landscape details, suffer less from uncertainly than do simpler models. Moreover, we show that the proposed strategy of model development safeguards one from error propagation in these more complex models. Finally, our approach shows that all models related to animal dispersal, ranging from simple to complex, can be related in a hierarchical fashion, so that the various approaches to modeling such dispersal can be viewed from a unified perspective.

Data-driven agent-based modeling, with application to rooftop solar adoption

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Haifeng; Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy; Letchford, Joshua

Agent-based modeling is commonly used for studying complex system properties emergent from interactions among many agents. We present a novel data-driven agent-based modeling framework applied to forecasting individual and aggregate residential rooftop solar adoption in San Diego county. Our first step is to learn a model of individual agent behavior from combined data of individual adoption characteristics and property assessment. We then construct an agent-based simulation with the learned model embedded in artificial agents, and proceed to validate it using a holdout sequence of collective adoption decisions. We demonstrate that the resulting agent-based model successfully forecasts solar adoption trends andmore » provides a meaningful quantification of uncertainty about its predictions. We utilize our model to optimize two classes of policies aimed at spurring solar adoption: one that subsidizes the cost of adoption, and another that gives away free systems to low-income house- holds. We find that the optimal policies derived for the latter class are significantly more efficacious, whereas the policies similar to the current California Solar Initiative incentive scheme appear to have a limited impact on overall adoption trends.« less

Data-driven agent-based modeling, with application to rooftop solar adoption

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Haifeng; Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy; Letchford, Joshua; ...

2016-01-25

Agent-based modeling is commonly used for studying complex system properties emergent from interactions among many agents. We present a novel data-driven agent-based modeling framework applied to forecasting individual and aggregate residential rooftop solar adoption in San Diego county. Our first step is to learn a model of individual agent behavior from combined data of individual adoption characteristics and property assessment. We then construct an agent-based simulation with the learned model embedded in artificial agents, and proceed to validate it using a holdout sequence of collective adoption decisions. We demonstrate that the resulting agent-based model successfully forecasts solar adoption trends andmore » provides a meaningful quantification of uncertainty about its predictions. We utilize our model to optimize two classes of policies aimed at spurring solar adoption: one that subsidizes the cost of adoption, and another that gives away free systems to low-income house- holds. We find that the optimal policies derived for the latter class are significantly more efficacious, whereas the policies similar to the current California Solar Initiative incentive scheme appear to have a limited impact on overall adoption trends.« less

Disaggregation and Refinement of System Dynamics Models via Agent-based Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nutaro, James J; Ozmen, Ozgur; Schryver, Jack C

System dynamics models are usually used to investigate aggregate level behavior, but these models can be decomposed into agents that have more realistic individual behaviors. Here we develop a simple model of the STEM workforce to illuminate the impacts that arise from the disaggregation and refinement of system dynamics models via agent-based modeling. Particularly, alteration of Poisson assumptions, adding heterogeneity to decision-making processes of agents, and discrete-time formulation are investigated and their impacts are illustrated. The goal is to demonstrate both the promise and danger of agent-based modeling in the context of a relatively simple model and to delineate themore » importance of modeling decisions that are often overlooked.« less

AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS

EPA Science Inventory

We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

Explicit robust schemes for implementation of a class of principal value-based constitutive models: Symbolic and numeric implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, S. M.; Saleeb, A. F.; Tan, H. Q.; Zhang, Y.

1993-01-01

The issue of developing effective and robust schemes to implement a class of the Ogden-type hyperelastic constitutive models is addressed. To this end, special purpose functions (running under MACSYMA) are developed for the symbolic derivation, evaluation, and automatic FORTRAN code generation of explicit expressions for the corresponding stress function and material tangent stiffness tensors. These explicit forms are valid over the entire deformation range, since the singularities resulting from repeated principal-stretch values have been theoretically removed. The required computational algorithms are outlined, and the resulting FORTRAN computer code is presented.

Applications of agent-based modeling to nutrient movement Lake Michigan

EPA Science Inventory

As part of an ongoing project aiming to provide useful information for nearshore management (harmful algal blooms, nutrient loading), we explore the value of agent-based models in Lake Michigan. Agent-based models follow many individual “agents” moving through a simul...

The Agent-based Approach: A New Direction for Computational Models of Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schlesinger, Matthew; Parisi, Domenico

2001-01-01

Introduces the concepts of online and offline sampling and highlights the role of online sampling in agent-based models of learning and development. Compares the strengths of each approach for modeling particular developmental phenomena and research questions. Describes a recent agent-based model of infant causal perception. Discusses limitations…

On stable Pareto laws in a hierarchical model of economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chebotarev, A. M.

2007-01-01

This study considers a model of the income distribution of agents whose pairwise interaction is asymmetric and price-invariant. Asymmetric transactions are typical for chain-trading groups who arrange their business such that commodities move from senior to junior partners and money moves in the opposite direction. The price-invariance of transactions means that the probability of a pairwise interaction is a function of the ratio of incomes, which is independent of the price scale or absolute income level. These two features characterize the hierarchical model. The income distribution in this class of models is a well-defined double-Pareto function, which possesses Pareto tails for the upper and lower incomes. For gross and net upper incomes, the model predicts definite values of the Pareto exponents, agross and anet, which are stable with respect to quantitative variation of the pair-interaction. The Pareto exponents are also stable with respect to the choice of a demand function within two classes of status-dependent behavior of agents: linear demand ( agross=1, anet=2) and unlimited slowly varying demand ( agross=anet=1). For the sigmoidal demand that describes limited returns, agross=anet=1+α, with some α>0 satisfying a transcendental equation. The low-income distribution may be singular or vanishing in the neighborhood of the minimal income; in any case, it is L1-integrable and its Pareto exponent is given explicitly. The theory used in the present study is based on a simple balance equation and new results from multiplicative Markov chains and exponential moments of random geometric progressions.

Spatial effects, sampling errors, and task specialization in the honey bee.

PubMed

Johnson, B R

2010-05-01

Task allocation patterns should depend on the spatial distribution of work within the nest, variation in task demand, and the movement patterns of workers, however, relatively little research has focused on these topics. This study uses a spatially explicit agent based model to determine whether such factors alone can generate biases in task performance at the individual level in the honey bees, Apis mellifera. Specialization (bias in task performance) is shown to result from strong sampling error due to localized task demand, relatively slow moving workers relative to nest size, and strong spatial variation in task demand. To date, specialization has been primarily interpreted with the response threshold concept, which is focused on intrinsic (typically genotypic) differences between workers. Response threshold variation and sampling error due to spatial effects are not mutually exclusive, however, and this study suggests that both contribute to patterns of task bias at the individual level. While spatial effects are strong enough to explain some documented cases of specialization; they are relatively short term and not explanatory for long term cases of specialization. In general, this study suggests that the spatial layout of tasks and fluctuations in their demand must be explicitly controlled for in studies focused on identifying genotypic specialists.

Developing a Conceptual Architecture for a Generalized Agent-based Modeling Environment (GAME)

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

4. REPAST (Java, Python , C#, Open Source) ........28 5. MASON: Multi-Agent Modeling Language (Swarm Extension... Python , C#, Open Source) Repast (Recursive Porous Agent Simulation Toolkit) was designed for building agent-based models and simulations in the...Repast makes it easy for inexperienced users to build models by including a built-in simple model and provide interfaces through which menus and Python

Developing and testing a global-scale regression model to quantify mean annual streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbarossa, Valerio; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Clavreul, Julie; King, Henry; Schipper, Aafke M.

2017-01-01

Quantifying mean annual flow of rivers (MAF) at ungauged sites is essential for assessments of global water supply, ecosystem integrity and water footprints. MAF can be quantified with spatially explicit process-based models, which might be overly time-consuming and data-intensive for this purpose, or with empirical regression models that predict MAF based on climate and catchment characteristics. Yet, regression models have mostly been developed at a regional scale and the extent to which they can be extrapolated to other regions is not known. In this study, we developed a global-scale regression model for MAF based on a dataset unprecedented in size, using observations of discharge and catchment characteristics from 1885 catchments worldwide, measuring between 2 and 106 km2. In addition, we compared the performance of the regression model with the predictive ability of the spatially explicit global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB by comparing results from both models to independent measurements. We obtained a regression model explaining 89% of the variance in MAF based on catchment area and catchment averaged mean annual precipitation and air temperature, slope and elevation. The regression model performed better than PCR-GLOBWB for the prediction of MAF, as root-mean-square error (RMSE) values were lower (0.29-0.38 compared to 0.49-0.57) and the modified index of agreement (d) was higher (0.80-0.83 compared to 0.72-0.75). Our regression model can be applied globally to estimate MAF at any point of the river network, thus providing a feasible alternative to spatially explicit process-based global hydrological models.

Simulating Cancer Growth with Multiscale Agent-Based Modeling

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhihui; Butner, Joseph D.; Kerketta, Romica; Cristini, Vittorio; Deisboeck, Thomas S.

2014-01-01

There have been many techniques developed in recent years to in silico model a variety of cancer behaviors. Agent-based modeling is a specific discrete-based hybrid modeling approach that allows simulating the role of diversity in cell populations as well as within each individual cell; it has therefore become a powerful modeling method widely used by computational cancer researchers. Many aspects of tumor morphology including phenotype-changing mutations, the adaptation to microenvironment, the process of angiogenesis, the influence of extracellular matrix, reactions to chemotherapy or surgical intervention, the effects of oxygen and nutrient availability, and metastasis and invasion of healthy tissues have been incorporated and investigated in agent-based models. In this review, we introduce some of the most recent agent-based models that have provided insight into the understanding of cancer growth and invasion, spanning multiple biological scales in time and space, and we further describe several experimentally testable hypotheses generated by those models. We also discuss some of the current challenges of multiscale agent-based cancer models. PMID:24793698

Quantum mechanical force field for hydrogen fluoride with explicit electronic polarization.

PubMed

Mazack, Michael J M; Gao, Jiali

2014-05-28

The explicit polarization (X-Pol) theory is a fragment-based quantum chemical method that explicitly models the internal electronic polarization and intermolecular interactions of a chemical system. X-Pol theory provides a framework to construct a quantum mechanical force field, which we have extended to liquid hydrogen fluoride (HF) in this work. The parameterization, called XPHF, is built upon the same formalism introduced for the XP3P model of liquid water, which is based on the polarized molecular orbital (PMO) semiempirical quantum chemistry method and the dipole-preserving polarization consistent point charge model. We introduce a fluorine parameter set for PMO, and find good agreement for various gas-phase results of small HF clusters compared to experiments and ab initio calculations at the M06-2X/MG3S level of theory. In addition, the XPHF model shows reasonable agreement with experiments for a variety of structural and thermodynamic properties in the liquid state, including radial distribution functions, interaction energies, diffusion coefficients, and densities at various state points.

Building occupancy simulation and data assimilation using a graph-based agent-oriented model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Sanish; Hu, Xiaolin

2018-07-01

Building occupancy simulation and estimation simulates the dynamics of occupants and estimates their real-time spatial distribution in a building. It requires a simulation model and an algorithm for data assimilation that assimilates real-time sensor data into the simulation model. Existing building occupancy simulation models include agent-based models and graph-based models. The agent-based models suffer high computation cost for simulating large numbers of occupants, and graph-based models overlook the heterogeneity and detailed behaviors of individuals. Recognizing the limitations of existing models, this paper presents a new graph-based agent-oriented model which can efficiently simulate large numbers of occupants in various kinds of building structures. To support real-time occupancy dynamics estimation, a data assimilation framework based on Sequential Monte Carlo Methods is also developed and applied to the graph-based agent-oriented model to assimilate real-time sensor data. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the developed model and the data assimilation framework. The major contributions of this work are to provide an efficient model for building occupancy simulation that can accommodate large numbers of occupants and an effective data assimilation framework that can provide real-time estimations of building occupancy from sensor data.

Sampled-Data Consensus of Linear Multi-agent Systems With Packet Losses.

PubMed

Zhang, Wenbing; Tang, Yang; Huang, Tingwen; Kurths, Jurgen

In this paper, the consensus problem is studied for a class of multi-agent systems with sampled data and packet losses, where random and deterministic packet losses are considered, respectively. For random packet losses, a Bernoulli-distributed white sequence is used to describe packet dropouts among agents in a stochastic way. For deterministic packet losses, a switched system with stable and unstable subsystems is employed to model packet dropouts in a deterministic way. The purpose of this paper is to derive consensus criteria, such that linear multi-agent systems with sampled-data and packet losses can reach consensus. By means of the Lyapunov function approach and the decomposition method, the design problem of a distributed controller is solved in terms of convex optimization. The interplay among the allowable bound of the sampling interval, the probability of random packet losses, and the rate of deterministic packet losses are explicitly derived to characterize consensus conditions. The obtained criteria are closely related to the maximum eigenvalue of the Laplacian matrix versus the second minimum eigenvalue of the Laplacian matrix, which reveals the intrinsic effect of communication topologies on consensus performance. Finally, simulations are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed results.In this paper, the consensus problem is studied for a class of multi-agent systems with sampled data and packet losses, where random and deterministic packet losses are considered, respectively. For random packet losses, a Bernoulli-distributed white sequence is used to describe packet dropouts among agents in a stochastic way. For deterministic packet losses, a switched system with stable and unstable subsystems is employed to model packet dropouts in a deterministic way. The purpose of this paper is to derive consensus criteria, such that linear multi-agent systems with sampled-data and packet losses can reach consensus. By means of the Lyapunov function approach and the decomposition method, the design problem of a distributed controller is solved in terms of convex optimization. The interplay among the allowable bound of the sampling interval, the probability of random packet losses, and the rate of deterministic packet losses are explicitly derived to characterize consensus conditions. The obtained criteria are closely related to the maximum eigenvalue of the Laplacian matrix versus the second minimum eigenvalue of the Laplacian matrix, which reveals the intrinsic effect of communication topologies on consensus performance. Finally, simulations are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed results.

Agent-based modeling of the spread of the 1918-1919 flu in three Canadian fur trading communities.

PubMed

O'Neil, Caroline A; Sattenspiel, Lisa

2010-01-01

Previous attempts to study the 1918-1919 flu in three small communities in central Manitoba have used both three-community population-based and single-community agent-based models. These studies identified critical factors influencing epidemic spread, but they also left important questions unanswered. The objective of this project was to design a more realistic agent-based model that would overcome limitations of earlier models and provide new insights into these outstanding questions. The new model extends the previous agent-based model to three communities so that results can be compared to those from the population-based model. Sensitivity testing was conducted, and the new model was used to investigate the influence of seasonal settlement and mobility patterns, the geographic heterogeneity of the observed 1918-1919 epidemic in Manitoba, and other questions addressed previously. Results confirm outcomes from the population-based model that suggest that (a) social organization and mobility strongly influence the timing and severity of epidemics and (b) the impact of the epidemic would have been greater if it had arrived in the summer rather than the winter. New insights from the model suggest that the observed heterogeneity among communities in epidemic impact was not unusual and would have been the expected outcome given settlement structure and levels of interaction among communities. Application of an agent-based computer simulation has helped to better explain observed patterns of spread of the 1918-1919 flu epidemic in central Manitoba. Contrasts between agent-based and population-based models illustrate the advantages of agent-based models for the study of small populations. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Unsilencing Critical Conversations in Social-Studies Teacher Education Using Agent-Based Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hostetler, Andrew; Sengupta, Pratim; Hollett, Ty

2018-01-01

In this article, we argue that when complex sociopolitical issues such as ethnocentrism and racial segregation are represented as complex, emergent systems using agent-based computational models (in short agent-based models or ABMs), discourse about these representations can disrupt social studies teacher candidates' dispositions of teaching…

Assessment of the GECKO-A Modeling Tool and Simplified 3D Model Parameterizations for SOA Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aumont, B.; Hodzic, A.; La, S.; Camredon, M.; Lannuque, V.; Lee-Taylor, J. M.; Madronich, S.

2014-12-01

Explicit chemical mechanisms aim to embody the current knowledge of the transformations occurring in the atmosphere during the oxidation of organic matter. These explicit mechanisms are therefore useful tools to explore the fate of organic matter during its tropospheric oxidation and examine how these chemical processes shape the composition and properties of the gaseous and the condensed phases. Furthermore, explicit mechanisms provide powerful benchmarks to design and assess simplified parameterizations to be included 3D model. Nevertheless, the explicit mechanism describing the oxidation of hydrocarbons with backbones larger than few carbon atoms involves millions of secondary organic compounds, far exceeding the size of chemical mechanisms that can be written manually. Data processing tools can however be designed to overcome these difficulties and automatically generate consistent and comprehensive chemical mechanisms on a systematic basis. The Generator for Explicit Chemistry and Kinetics of Organics in the Atmosphere (GECKO-A) has been developed for the automatic writing of explicit chemical schemes of organic species and their partitioning between the gas and condensed phases. GECKO-A can be viewed as an expert system that mimics the steps by which chemists might develop chemical schemes. GECKO-A generates chemical schemes according to a prescribed protocol assigning reaction pathways and kinetics data on the basis of experimental data and structure-activity relationships. In its current version, GECKO-A can generate the full atmospheric oxidation scheme for most linear, branched and cyclic precursors, including alkanes and alkenes up to C25. Assessments of the GECKO-A modeling tool based on chamber SOA observations will be presented. GECKO-A was recently used to design a parameterization for SOA formation based on a Volatility Basis Set (VBS) approach. First results will be presented.

Brief introductory guide to agent-based modeling and an illustration from urban health research.

PubMed

Auchincloss, Amy H; Garcia, Leandro Martin Totaro

2015-11-01

There is growing interest among urban health researchers in addressing complex problems using conceptual and computation models from the field of complex systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is one computational modeling tool that has received a lot of interest. However, many researchers remain unfamiliar with developing and carrying out an ABM, hindering the understanding and application of it. This paper first presents a brief introductory guide to carrying out a simple agent-based model. Then, the method is illustrated by discussing a previously developed agent-based model, which explored inequalities in diet in the context of urban residential segregation.

Brief introductory guide to agent-based modeling and an illustration from urban health research

PubMed Central

Auchincloss, Amy H.; Garcia, Leandro Martin Totaro

2017-01-01

There is growing interest among urban health researchers in addressing complex problems using conceptual and computation models from the field of complex systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is one computational modeling tool that has received a lot of interest. However, many researchers remain unfamiliar with developing and carrying out an ABM, hindering the understanding and application of it. This paper first presents a brief introductory guide to carrying out a simple agent-based model. Then, the method is illustrated by discussing a previously developed agent-based model, which explored inequalities in diet in the context of urban residential segregation. PMID:26648364

Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

PubMed

Dezécache, Camille; Salles, Jean-Michel; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Hérault, Bruno

2017-09-01

Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A technology path to tactical agent-based modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, Alex; Hanratty, Timothy P.

2017-05-01

Wargaming is a process of thinking through and visualizing events that could occur during a possible course of action. Over the past 200 years, wargaming has matured into a set of formalized processes. One area of growing interest is the application of agent-based modeling. Agent-based modeling and its additional supporting technologies has potential to introduce a third-generation wargaming capability to the Army, creating a positive overmatch decision-making capability. In its simplest form, agent-based modeling is a computational technique that helps the modeler understand and simulate how the "whole of a system" responds to change over time. It provides a decentralized method of looking at situations where individual agents are instantiated within an environment, interact with each other, and empowered to make their own decisions. However, this technology is not without its own risks and limitations. This paper explores a technology roadmap, identifying research topics that could realize agent-based modeling within a tactical wargaming context.

A Distributed Platform for Global-Scale Agent-Based Models of Disease Transmission

PubMed Central

Parker, Jon; Epstein, Joshua M.

2013-01-01

The Global-Scale Agent Model (GSAM) is presented. The GSAM is a high-performance distributed platform for agent-based epidemic modeling capable of simulating a disease outbreak in a population of several billion agents. It is unprecedented in its scale, its speed, and its use of Java. Solutions to multiple challenges inherent in distributing massive agent-based models are presented. Communication, synchronization, and memory usage are among the topics covered in detail. The memory usage discussion is Java specific. However, the communication and synchronization discussions apply broadly. We provide benchmarks illustrating the GSAM’s speed and scalability. PMID:24465120

Robust reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Morimoto, Jun; Doya, Kenji

2005-02-01

This letter proposes a new reinforcement learning (RL) paradigm that explicitly takes into account input disturbance as well as modeling errors. The use of environmental models in RL is quite popular for both offline learning using simulations and for online action planning. However, the difference between the model and the real environment can lead to unpredictable, and often unwanted, results. Based on the theory of H(infinity) control, we consider a differential game in which a "disturbing" agent tries to make the worst possible disturbance while a "control" agent tries to make the best control input. The problem is formulated as finding a min-max solution of a value function that takes into account the amount of the reward and the norm of the disturbance. We derive online learning algorithms for estimating the value function and for calculating the worst disturbance and the best control in reference to the value function. We tested the paradigm, which we call robust reinforcement learning (RRL), on the control task of an inverted pendulum. In the linear domain, the policy and the value function learned by online algorithms coincided with those derived analytically by the linear H(infinity) control theory. For a fully nonlinear swing-up task, RRL achieved robust performance with changes in the pendulum weight and friction, while a standard reinforcement learning algorithm could not deal with these changes. We also applied RRL to the cart-pole swing-up task, and a robust swing-up policy was acquired.

Explicit filtering in large eddy simulation using a discontinuous Galerkin method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brazell, Matthew J.

The discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method is a formulation of the finite element method (FEM). DG provides the ability for a high order of accuracy in complex geometries, and allows for highly efficient parallelization algorithms. These attributes make the DG method attractive for solving the Navier-Stokes equations for large eddy simulation (LES). The main goal of this work is to investigate the feasibility of adopting an explicit filter in the numerical solution of the Navier-Stokes equations with DG. Explicit filtering has been shown to increase the numerical stability of under-resolved simulations and is needed for LES with dynamic sub-grid scale (SGS) models. The explicit filter takes advantage of DG's framework where the solution is approximated using a polyno- mial basis where the higher modes of the solution correspond to a higher order polynomial basis. By removing high order modes, the filtered solution contains low order frequency content much like an explicit low pass filter. The explicit filter implementation is tested on a simple 1-D solver with an initial condi- tion that has some similarity to turbulent flows. The explicit filter does restrict the resolution as well as remove accumulated energy in the higher modes from aliasing. However, the ex- plicit filter is unable to remove numerical errors causing numerical dissipation. A second test case solves the 3-D Navier-Stokes equations of the Taylor-Green vortex flow (TGV). The TGV is useful for SGS model testing because it is initially laminar and transitions into a fully turbulent flow. The SGS models investigated include the constant coefficient Smagorinsky model, dynamic Smagorinsky model, and dynamic Heinz model. The constant coefficient Smagorinsky model is over dissipative, this is generally not desirable however it does add stability. The dynamic Smagorinsky model generally performs better, especially during the laminar-turbulent transition region as expected. The dynamic Heinz model which is based on an improved model, handles the laminar-turbulent transition region well while also showing additional robustness.

An extensible simulation environment and movement metrics for testing walking behavior in agent-based models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paul M. Torrens; Atsushi Nara; Xun Li

2012-01-01

Human movement is a significant ingredient of many social, environmental, and technical systems, yet the importance of movement is often discounted in considering systems complexity. Movement is commonly abstracted in agent-based modeling (which is perhaps the methodological vehicle for modeling complex systems), despite the influence of movement upon information exchange and adaptation in a system. In particular, agent-based models of urban pedestrians often treat movement in proxy form at the expense of faithfully treating movement behavior with realistic agency. There exists little consensus about which method is appropriate for representing movement in agent-based schemes. In this paper, we examine popularly-usedmore » methods to drive movement in agent-based models, first by introducing a methodology that can flexibly handle many representations of movement at many different scales and second, introducing a suite of tools to benchmark agent movement between models and against real-world trajectory data. We find that most popular movement schemes do a relatively poor job of representing movement, but that some schemes may well be 'good enough' for some applications. We also discuss potential avenues for improving the representation of movement in agent-based frameworks.« less

Agent-Based Modeling in Public Health: Current Applications and Future Directions.

PubMed

Tracy, Melissa; Cerdá, Magdalena; Keyes, Katherine M

2018-04-01

Agent-based modeling is a computational approach in which agents with a specified set of characteristics interact with each other and with their environment according to predefined rules. We review key areas in public health where agent-based modeling has been adopted, including both communicable and noncommunicable disease, health behaviors, and social epidemiology. We also describe the main strengths and limitations of this approach for questions with public health relevance. Finally, we describe both methodologic and substantive future directions that we believe will enhance the value of agent-based modeling for public health. In particular, advances in model validation, comparisons with other causal modeling procedures, and the expansion of the models to consider comorbidity and joint influences more systematically will improve the utility of this approach to inform public health research, practice, and policy.

A spatially explicit model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Gatto, M.; Casagrandi, R.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

2011-12-01

As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to July 2011, climb to 385,000 cases and 5,800 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of textit{Vibrio cholera}, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan texttrademark project). The model directly account for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations, clean water supply and educational campaigns, thus emerging as an essential component of the control of future cholera epidemics.

A watershed-based spatially-explicit demonstration of an integrated environmental modeling framework for ecosystem services in the Coal River Basin (WV, USA)

Treesearch

John M. Johnston; Mahion C. Barber; Kurt Wolfe; Mike Galvin; Mike Cyterski; Rajbir Parmar; Luis Suarez

2016-01-01

We demonstrate a spatially-explicit regional assessment of current condition of aquatic ecoservices in the Coal River Basin (CRB), with limited sensitivity analysis for the atmospheric contaminant mercury. The integrated modeling framework (IMF) forecasts water quality and quantity, habitat suitability for aquatic biota, fish biomasses, population densities, ...

Towards social autonomous vehicles: Efficient collision avoidance scheme using Richardson's arms race model.

PubMed

Riaz, Faisal; Niazi, Muaz A

2017-01-01

This paper presents the concept of a social autonomous agent to conceptualize such Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), which interacts with other AVs using social manners similar to human behavior. The presented AVs also have the capability of predicting intentions, i.e. mentalizing and copying the actions of each other, i.e. mirroring. Exploratory Agent Based Modeling (EABM) level of the Cognitive Agent Based Computing (CABC) framework has been utilized to design the proposed social agent. Furthermore, to emulate the functionality of mentalizing and mirroring modules of proposed social agent, a tailored mathematical model of the Richardson's arms race model has also been presented. The performance of the proposed social agent has been validated at two levels-firstly it has been simulated using NetLogo, a standard agent-based modeling tool and also, at a practical level using a prototype AV. The simulation results have confirmed that the proposed social agent-based collision avoidance strategy is 78.52% more efficient than Random walk based collision avoidance strategy in congested flock-like topologies. Whereas practical results have confirmed that the proposed scheme can avoid rear end and lateral collisions with the efficiency of 99.876% as compared with the IEEE 802.11n-based existing state of the art mirroring neuron-based collision avoidance scheme.

Towards social autonomous vehicles: Efficient collision avoidance scheme using Richardson’s arms race model

PubMed Central

Niazi, Muaz A.

2017-01-01

This paper presents the concept of a social autonomous agent to conceptualize such Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), which interacts with other AVs using social manners similar to human behavior. The presented AVs also have the capability of predicting intentions, i.e. mentalizing and copying the actions of each other, i.e. mirroring. Exploratory Agent Based Modeling (EABM) level of the Cognitive Agent Based Computing (CABC) framework has been utilized to design the proposed social agent. Furthermore, to emulate the functionality of mentalizing and mirroring modules of proposed social agent, a tailored mathematical model of the Richardson’s arms race model has also been presented. The performance of the proposed social agent has been validated at two levels–firstly it has been simulated using NetLogo, a standard agent-based modeling tool and also, at a practical level using a prototype AV. The simulation results have confirmed that the proposed social agent-based collision avoidance strategy is 78.52% more efficient than Random walk based collision avoidance strategy in congested flock-like topologies. Whereas practical results have confirmed that the proposed scheme can avoid rear end and lateral collisions with the efficiency of 99.876% as compared with the IEEE 802.11n-based existing state of the art mirroring neuron-based collision avoidance scheme. PMID:29040294

The practice of agent-based model visualization.

PubMed

Dorin, Alan; Geard, Nicholas

2014-01-01

We discuss approaches to agent-based model visualization. Agent-based modeling has its own requirements for visualization, some shared with other forms of simulation software, and some unique to this approach. In particular, agent-based models are typified by complexity, dynamism, nonequilibrium and transient behavior, heterogeneity, and a researcher's interest in both individual- and aggregate-level behavior. These are all traits requiring careful consideration in the design, experimentation, and communication of results. In the case of all but final communication for dissemination, researchers may not make their visualizations public. Hence, the knowledge of how to visualize during these earlier stages is unavailable to the research community in a readily accessible form. Here we explore means by which all phases of agent-based modeling can benefit from visualization, and we provide examples from the available literature and online sources to illustrate key stages and techniques.

Public health situation awareness: toward a semantic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirhaji, Parsa; Richesson, Rachel L.; Turley, James P.; Zhang, Jiajie; Smith, Jack W.

2004-04-01

We propose a knowledge-based public health situation awareness system. The basis for this system is an explicit representation of public health situation awareness concepts and their interrelationships. This representation is based upon the users" (public health decision makers) cognitive model of the world, and optimized towards the efficacy of performance and relevance to the public health situation awareness processes and tasks. In our approach, explicit domain knowledge is the foundation for interpretation of public health data, as apposed to conventional systems where the statistical methods are the essence of the processes. Objectives: To develop a prototype knowledge-based system for public health situation awareness and to demonstrate the utility of knowledge intensive approaches in integration of heterogeneous information, eliminating the effects of incomplete and poor quality surveillance data, uncertainty in syndrome and aberration detection and visualization of complex information structures in public health surveillance settings, particularly in the context of bioterrorism (BT) preparedness. The system employs the Resource Definition Framework (RDF) and additional layers of more expressive languages to explicate the knowledge of domain experts into machine interpretable and computable problem-solving modules that can then guide users and computer systems in sifting through the most "relevant" data for syndrome and outbreak detection and investigation of root cause of the event. The Center for Biosecurity and Public Health Informatics Research is developing a prototype knowledge-based system around influenza, which has complex natural disease patterns, many public health implications, and is a potential agent for bioterrorism. The preliminary data from this effort may demonstrate superior performance in information integration, syndrome and aberration detection, information access through information visualization, and cross-domain investigation of the root causes of public health events.

A Cybernetic Approach to the Modeling of Agent Communities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Truszkowski, Walt; Karlin, Jay

2000-01-01

In an earlier paper [1] examples of agent technology in a NASA context were presented. Both groundbased and space-based applications were addressed. This paper continues the discussion of one aspect of the Goddard Space Flight Center's continuing efforts to develop a community of agents that can support both ground-based and space-based systems autonomy. The paper focuses on an approach to agent-community modeling based on the theory of viable systems developed by Stafford Beer. It gives the status of an initial attempt to capture some of the agent-community behaviors in a viable system context. This paper is expository in nature and focuses on a discussion of the modeling of some of the underlying concepts and infrastructure that will serve as the basis of more detailed investigative work into the behavior of agent communities. The paper is organized as follows. First, a general introduction to agent community requirements is presented. Secondly, a brief introduction to the cybernetic concept of a viable system is given. This concept forms the foundation of the modeling approach. Then the concept of an agent community is modeled in the cybernetic context.

Simulating cancer growth with multiscale agent-based modeling.

PubMed

Wang, Zhihui; Butner, Joseph D; Kerketta, Romica; Cristini, Vittorio; Deisboeck, Thomas S

2015-02-01

There have been many techniques developed in recent years to in silico model a variety of cancer behaviors. Agent-based modeling is a specific discrete-based hybrid modeling approach that allows simulating the role of diversity in cell populations as well as within each individual cell; it has therefore become a powerful modeling method widely used by computational cancer researchers. Many aspects of tumor morphology including phenotype-changing mutations, the adaptation to microenvironment, the process of angiogenesis, the influence of extracellular matrix, reactions to chemotherapy or surgical intervention, the effects of oxygen and nutrient availability, and metastasis and invasion of healthy tissues have been incorporated and investigated in agent-based models. In this review, we introduce some of the most recent agent-based models that have provided insight into the understanding of cancer growth and invasion, spanning multiple biological scales in time and space, and we further describe several experimentally testable hypotheses generated by those models. We also discuss some of the current challenges of multiscale agent-based cancer models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating Biodiversity into Biosphere-Atmosphere Interactions Using Individual-Based Models (IBM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, B.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Lerdau, M.

2017-12-01

A key component regulating complex, nonlinear, and dynamic biosphere-atmosphere interactions is the inherent diversity of biological systems. The model frameworks currently widely used, i.e., Plant Functional Type models) do not even begin to capture the metabolic and taxonomic diversity found in many terrestrial systems. We propose that a transition from PFT-based to individual-based modeling approaches (hereafter referred to as IBM) is essential for integrating biodiversity into research on biosphere-atmosphere interactions. The proposal emerges from our studying the interactions of forests with atmospheric processes in the context of climate change using an individual-based forest volatile organic compounds model, UVAFME-VOC. This individual-based model can explicitly simulate VOC emissions based on an explicit modelling of forest dynamics by computing the growth, death, and regeneration of each individual tree of different species and their competition for light, moisture, and nutrient, from which system-level VOC emissions are simulated by explicitly computing and summing up each individual's emissions. We found that elevated O3 significantly altered the forest dynamics by favoring species that are O3-resistant, which, meanwhile, are producers of isoprene. Such compositional changes, on the one hand, resulted in unsuppressed forest productivity and carbon stock because of the compensation by O3-resistant species. On the other hand, with more isoprene produced arising from increased producers, a possible positive feedback loop between tropospheric O3 and forest thereby emerged. We also found that climate warming will not always stimulate isoprene emissions because warming simultaneously reduces isoprene emissions by causing a decline in the abundance of isoprene-emitting species. These results suggest that species diversity is of great significance and that individual-based modelling strategies should be applied in studying biosphere-atmosphere interactions.

Wealth and price distribution by diffusive approximation in a repeated prediction market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bottazzi, Giulio; Giachini, Daniele

2017-04-01

The approximate agents' wealth and price invariant densities of a repeated prediction market model is derived using the Fokker-Planck equation of the associated continuous-time jump process. We show that the approximation obtained from the evolution of log-wealth difference can be reliably exploited to compute all the quantities of interest in all the acceptable parameter space. When the risk aversion of the trader is high enough, we are able to derive an explicit closed-form solution for the price distribution which is asymptotically correct.

Allowing macroalgae growth forms to emerge: Use of an agent-based model to understand the growth and spread of macroalgae in Florida coral reefs, with emphasis on Halimeda tuna

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yniguez, A.T.; McManus, J.W.; DeAngelis, D.L.

2008-01-01

The growth patterns of macroalgae in three-dimensional space can provide important information regarding the environments in which they live, and insights into changes that may occur when those environments change due to anthropogenic and/or natural causes. To decipher these patterns and their attendant mechanisms and influencing factors, a spatially explicit model has been developed. The model SPREAD (SPatially-explicit Reef Algae Dynamics), which incorporates the key morphogenetic characteristics of clonality and morphological plasticity, is used to investigate the influences of light, temperature, nutrients and disturbance on the growth and spatial occupancy of dominant macroalgae in the Florida Reef Tract. The model species, Halimeda and Dictyota spp., are modular organisms, with an 'individual' being made up of repeating structures. These species can also propagate asexually through clonal fragmentation. These traits lead to potentially indefinite growth and plastic morphology that can respond to environmental conditions in various ways. The growth of an individual is modeled as the iteration of discrete macroalgal modules whose dynamics are affected by the light, temperature, and nutrient regimes. Fragmentation is included as a source of asexual reproduction and/or mortality. Model outputs are the same metrics that are obtained in the field, thus allowing for easy comparison. The performance of SPREAD was tested through sensitivity analysis and comparison with independent field data from four study sites in the Florida Reef Tract. Halimeda tuna was selected for initial model comparisons because the relatively untangled growth form permits detailed characterization in the field. Differences in the growth patterns of H. tuna were observed among these reefs. SPREAD was able to closely reproduce these variations, and indicate the potential importance of light and nutrient variations in producing these patterns. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Agent-based model for rural-urban migration: A dynamic consideration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Ning; Ma, Hai-Ying; Khan, M. Junaid

2015-10-01

This paper develops a dynamic agent-based model for rural-urban migration, based on the previous relevant works. The model conforms to the typical dynamic linear multi-agent systems model concerned extensively in systems science, in which the communication network is formulated as a digraph. Simulations reveal that consensus of certain variable could be harmful to the overall stability and should be avoided.

Parameter and uncertainty estimation for mechanistic, spatially explicit epidemiological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, Flavio; Schaefli, Bettina; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Rinaldo, Andrea

2014-05-01

Epidemiological models can be a crucially important tool for decision-making during disease outbreaks. The range of possible applications spans from real-time forecasting and allocation of health-care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. Our spatially explicit, mechanistic models for cholera epidemics have been successfully applied to several epidemics including, the one that struck Haiti in late 2010 and is still ongoing. Calibration and parameter estimation of such models represents a major challenge because of properties unusual in traditional geoscientific domains such as hydrology. Firstly, the epidemiological data available might be subject to high uncertainties due to error-prone diagnosis as well as manual (and possibly incomplete) data collection. Secondly, long-term time-series of epidemiological data are often unavailable. Finally, the spatially explicit character of the models requires the comparison of several time-series of model outputs with their real-world counterparts, which calls for an appropriate weighting scheme. It follows that the usual assumption of a homoscedastic Gaussian error distribution, used in combination with classical calibration techniques based on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, is likely to be violated, whereas the construction of an appropriate formal likelihood function seems close to impossible. Alternative calibration methods, which allow for accurate estimation of total model uncertainty, particularly regarding the envisaged use of the models for decision-making, are thus needed. Here we present the most recent developments regarding methods for parameter and uncertainty estimation to be used with our mechanistic, spatially explicit models for cholera epidemics, based on informal measures of goodness of fit.

Development of Mechanistic Reasoning and Multilevel Explanations of Ecology in Third Grade Using Agent-Based Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dickes, Amanda Catherine; Sengupta, Pratim; Farris, Amy Voss; Satabdi, Basu

2016-01-01

In this paper, we present a third-grade ecology learning environment that integrates two forms of modeling--embodied modeling and agent-based modeling (ABMs)--through the generation of mathematical representations that are common to both forms of modeling. The term "agent" in the context of ABMs indicates individual computational objects…

Agent based reasoning for the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kononovicius, A.; Gontis, V.

2012-02-01

We extend Kirman's model by introducing variable event time scale. The proposed flexible time scale is equivalent to the variable trading activity observed in financial markets. Stochastic version of the extended Kirman's agent based model is compared to the non-linear stochastic models of long-range memory in financial markets. The agent based model providing matching macroscopic description serves as a microscopic reasoning of the earlier proposed stochastic model exhibiting power law statistics.

Going beyond the unitary curve: incorporating richer cognition into agent-based water resources models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kock, B. E.

2008-12-01

The increased availability and understanding of agent-based modeling technology and techniques provides a unique opportunity for water resources modelers, allowing them to go beyond traditional behavioral approaches from neoclassical economics, and add rich cognition to social-hydrological models. Agent-based models provide for an individual focus, and the easier and more realistic incorporation of learning, memory and other mechanisms for increased cognitive sophistication. We are in an age of global change impacting complex water resources systems, and social responses are increasingly recognized as fundamentally adaptive and emergent. In consideration of this, water resources models and modelers need to better address social dynamics in a manner beyond the capabilities of neoclassical economics theory and practice. However, going beyond the unitary curve requires unique levels of engagement with stakeholders, both to elicit the richer knowledge necessary for structuring and parameterizing agent-based models, but also to make sure such models are appropriately used. With the aim of encouraging epistemological and methodological convergence in the agent-based modeling of water resources, we have developed a water resources-specific cognitive model and an associated collaborative modeling process. Our cognitive model emphasizes efficiency in architecture and operation, and capacity to adapt to different application contexts. We describe a current application of this cognitive model and modeling process in the Arkansas Basin of Colorado. In particular, we highlight the potential benefits of, and challenges to, using more sophisticated cognitive models in agent-based water resources models.

Multi-issue Agent Negotiation Based on Fairness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Baohe; Zheng, Sue; Wu, Hong

Agent-based e-commerce service has become a hotspot now. How to make the agent negotiation process quickly and high-efficiently is the main research direction of this area. In the multi-issue model, MAUT(Multi-attribute Utility Theory) or its derived theory usually consider little about the fairness of both negotiators. This work presents a general model of agent negotiation which considered the satisfaction of both negotiators via autonomous learning. The model can evaluate offers from the opponent agent based on the satisfaction degree, learn online to get the opponent's knowledge from interactive instances of history and negotiation of this time, make concessions dynamically based on fair object. Through building the optimal negotiation model, the bilateral negotiation achieved a higher efficiency and fairer deal.

Pain expressiveness and altruistic behavior: an exploration using agent-based modeling.

PubMed

de C Williams, Amanda C; Gallagher, Elizabeth; Fidalgo, Antonio R; Bentley, Peter J

2016-03-01

Predictions which invoke evolutionary mechanisms are hard to test. Agent-based modeling in artificial life offers a way to simulate behaviors and interactions in specific physical or social environments over many generations. The outcomes have implications for understanding adaptive value of behaviors in context. Pain-related behavior in animals is communicated to other animals that might protect or help, or might exploit or predate. An agent-based model simulated the effects of displaying or not displaying pain (expresser/nonexpresser strategies) when injured and of helping, ignoring, or exploiting another in pain (altruistic/nonaltruistic/selfish strategies). Agents modeled in MATLAB interacted at random while foraging (gaining energy); random injury interrupted foraging for a fixed time unless help from an altruistic agent, who paid an energy cost, speeded recovery. Environmental and social conditions also varied, and each model ran for 10,000 iterations. Findings were meaningful in that, in general, contingencies that evident from experimental work with a variety of mammals, over a few interactions, were replicated in the agent-based model after selection pressure over many generations. More energy-demanding expression of pain reduced its frequency in successive generations, and increasing injury frequency resulted in fewer expressers and altruists. Allowing exploitation of injured agents decreased expression of pain to near zero, but altruists remained. Decreasing costs or increasing benefits of helping hardly changed its frequency, whereas increasing interaction rate between injured agents and helpers diminished the benefits to both. Agent-based modeling allows simulation of complex behaviors and environmental pressures over evolutionary time.

Agent Model Development for Assessing Climate-Induced Geopolitical Instability.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.

2005-12-01

We present the initial stages of development of new agent-based computational methods to generate and test hypotheses about linkages between environmental change and international instability. This report summarizes the first year's effort of an originally proposed three-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The preliminary work focused on a set of simple agent-based models and benefited from lessons learned in previous related projects and case studies of human response to climate change and environmental scarcity. Our approach was to define a qualitative model using extremely simple cellular agent models akin to Lovelock's Daisyworld and Schelling's segregation model. Such modelsmore » do not require significant computing resources, and users can modify behavior rules to gain insights. One of the difficulties in agent-based modeling is finding the right balance between model simplicity and real-world representation. Our approach was to keep agent behaviors as simple as possible during the development stage (described herein) and to ground them with a realistic geospatial Earth system model in subsequent years. This work is directed toward incorporating projected climate data--including various C02 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report--and ultimately toward coupling a useful agent-based model to a general circulation model.3« less

Patterns of Use of an Agent-Based Model and a System Dynamics Model: The Application of Patterns of Use and the Impacts on Learning Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Kate; Reimann, Peter

2010-01-01

A classification system that was developed for the use of agent-based models was applied to strategies used by school-aged students to interrogate an agent-based model and a system dynamics model. These were compared, and relationships between learning outcomes and the strategies used were also analysed. It was found that the classification system…

The large mean body size of mammalian herbivores explains the productivity paradox during the Last Glacial Maximum.

PubMed

Zhu, Dan; Ciais, Philippe; Chang, Jinfeng; Krinner, Gerhard; Peng, Shushi; Viovy, Nicolas; Peñuelas, Josep; Zimov, Sergey

2018-04-01

Large herbivores are a major agent in ecosystems, influencing vegetation structure, and carbon and nutrient flows. During the last glacial period, a mammoth steppe ecosystem prevailed in the unglaciated northern lands, supporting a high diversity and density of megafaunal herbivores. The apparent discrepancy between abundant megafauna and the expected low vegetation productivity under a generally harsher climate with a lower CO 2 concentration, termed the productivity paradox, requires large-scale quantitative analysis using process-based ecosystem models. However, most of the current global dynamic vegetation models (DGVMs) lack explicit representation of large herbivores. Here we incorporated a grazing module in a DGVM based on physiological and demographic equations for wild large grazers, taking into account feedbacks of large grazers on vegetation. The model was applied globally for present-day and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The present-day results of potential grazer biomass, combined with an empirical land-use map, infer a reduction in wild grazer biomass by 79-93% owing to anthropogenic land replacement of natural grasslands. For the LGM, we find that the larger mean body size of mammalian herbivores than today is the crucial clue to explain the productivity paradox, due to a more efficient exploitation of grass production by grazers with a large body size.

Research on monocentric model of urbanization by agent-based simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Ling; Yang, Kaizhong

2008-10-01

Over the past years, GIS have been widely used for modeling urbanization from a variety of perspectives such as digital terrain representation and overlay analysis using cell-based data platform. Similarly, simulation of urban dynamics has been achieved with the use of Cellular Automata. In contrast to these approaches, agent-based simulation provides a much more powerful set of tools. This allows researchers to set up a counterpart for real environmental and urban systems in computer for experimentation and scenario analysis. This Paper basically reviews the research on the economic mechanism of urbanization and an agent-based monocentric model is setup for further understanding the urbanization process and mechanism in China. We build an endogenous growth model with dynamic interactions between spatial agglomeration and urban development by using agent-based simulation. It simulates the migration decisions of two main types of agents, namely rural and urban households between rural and urban area. The model contains multiple economic interactions that are crucial in understanding urbanization and industrial process in China. These adaptive agents can adjust their supply and demand according to the market situation by a learning algorithm. The simulation result shows this agent-based urban model is able to perform the regeneration and to produce likely-to-occur projections of reality.

Computational design of hepatitis C vaccines using maximum entropy models and population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Gregory; Ferguson, Andrew

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) afflicts 170 million people and kills 350,000 annually. Vaccination offers the most realistic and cost effective hope of controlling this epidemic. Despite 20 years of research, no vaccine is available. A major obstacle is the virus' extreme genetic variability and rapid mutational escape from immune pressure. Improvements in the vaccine design process are urgently needed. Coupling data mining with spin glass models and maximum entropy inference, we have developed a computational approach to translate sequence databases into empirical fitness landscapes. These landscapes explicitly connect viral genotype to phenotypic fitness and reveal vulnerable targets that can be exploited to rationally design immunogens. Viewing these landscapes as the mutational ''playing field'' over which the virus is constrained to evolve, we have integrated them with agent-based models of the viral mutational and host immune response dynamics, establishing a data-driven immune simulator of HCV infection. We have employed this simulator to perform in silico screening of HCV immunogens. By systematically identifying a small number of promising vaccine candidates, these models can accelerate the search for a vaccine by massively reducing the experimental search space.

Self-Love or Other-Love? Explicit Other-Preference but Implicit Self-Preference

PubMed Central

Gebauer, Jochen E.; Göritz, Anja S.; Hofmann, Wilhelm; Sedikides, Constantine

2012-01-01

Do humans prefer the self even over their favorite other person? This question has pervaded philosophy and social-behavioral sciences. Psychology’s distinction between explicit and implicit preferences calls for a two-tiered solution. Our evolutionarily-based Dissociative Self-Preference Model offers two hypotheses. Other-preferences prevail at an explicit level, because they convey caring for others, which strengthens interpersonal bonds–a major evolutionary advantage. Self-preferences, however, prevail at an implicit level, because they facilitate self-serving automatic behavior, which favors the self in life-or-die situations–also a major evolutionary advantage. We examined the data of 1,519 participants, who completed an explicit measure and one of five implicit measures of preferences for self versus favorite other. The results were consistent with the Dissociative Self-Preference Model. Explicitly, participants preferred their favorite other over the self. Implicitly, however, they preferred the self over their favorite other (be it their child, romantic partner, or best friend). Results are discussed in relation to evolutionary theorizing on self-deception. PMID:22848605

A spatially explicit hydro-ecological modeling framework (BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0): Model description and test in a boreal ecosystem in Eastern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govind, Ajit; Chen, Jing Ming; Margolis, Hank; Ju, Weimin; Sonnentag, Oliver; Giasson, Marc-André

2009-04-01

SummaryA spatially explicit, process-based hydro-ecological model, BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0, was developed to improve the representation of ecophysiological, hydro-ecological and biogeochemical processes of boreal ecosystems in a tightly coupled manner. Several processes unique to boreal ecosystems were implemented including the sub-surface lateral water fluxes, stratification of vegetation into distinct layers for explicit ecophysiological representation, inclusion of novel spatial upscaling strategies and biogeochemical processes. To account for preferential water fluxes common in humid boreal ecosystems, a novel scheme was introduced based on laboratory analyses. Leaf-scale ecophysiological processes were upscaled to canopy-scale by explicitly considering leaf physiological conditions as affected by light and water stress. The modified model was tested with 2 years of continuous measurements taken at the Eastern Old Black Spruce Site of the Fluxnet-Canada Research Network located in a humid boreal watershed in eastern Canada. Comparison of the simulated and measured ET, water-table depth (WTD), volumetric soil water content (VSWC) and gross primary productivity (GPP) revealed that BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0 simulates hydro-ecological processes with reasonable accuracy. The model was able to explain 83% of the ET, 92% of the GPP variability and 72% of the WTD dynamics. The model suggests that in humid ecosystems such as eastern North American boreal watersheds, topographically driven sub-surface baseflow is the main mechanism of soil water partitioning which significantly affects the local-scale hydrological conditions.

Default contagion risks in Russian interbank market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonidov, A. V.; Rumyantsev, E. L.

2016-06-01

Systemic risks of default contagion in the Russian interbank market are investigated. The analysis is based on considering the bow-tie structure of the weighted oriented graph describing the structure of the interbank loans. A probabilistic model of interbank contagion explicitly taking into account the empirical bow-tie structure reflecting functionality of the corresponding nodes (borrowers, lenders, borrowers and lenders simultaneously), degree distributions and disassortativity of the interbank network under consideration based on empirical data is developed. The characteristics of contagion-related systemic risk calculated with this model are shown to be in agreement with those of explicit stress tests.

Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Rachel; Acevedo, William; Soulard, Christopher E.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2015-01-01

Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC) increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more effectively simulate the pattern and spread of LULC changes. This manuscript describes the methods and input parameters of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a customized state-and-transition simulation model utilized to assess the relative impacts of LULC on carbon stocks for the conterminous U.S. The methods and input parameters are spatially explicit and describe initial conditions (strata, state classes and forest age), spatial multipliers, and carbon stock density. Initial conditions were derived from harmonization of multi-temporal data characterizing changes in land use as well as land cover. Harmonization combines numerous national-level datasets through a cell-based data fusion process to generate maps of primary LULC categories. Forest age was parameterized using data from the North American Carbon Program and spatially-explicit maps showing the locations of past disturbances (i.e. wildfire and harvest). Spatial multipliers were developed to spatially constrain the location of future LULC transitions. Based on distance-decay theory, maps were generated to guide the placement of changes related to forest harvest, agricultural intensification/extensification, and urbanization. We analyze the spatially-explicit input parameters with a sensitivity analysis, by showing how LUCAS responds to variations in the model input. This manuscript uses Mediterranean California as a regional subset to highlight local to regional aspects of land change, which demonstrates the utility of LUCAS at many scales and applications.

Beyond the Sponge Model: Encouraging Students' Questioning Skills in Abnormal Psychology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keeley, Stuart M.; Ali, Rahan; Gebing, Tracy

1998-01-01

Argues that educators should provide students with explicit training in asking critical questions. Describes a training strategy taught in abnormal psychology courses at Bowling Green State University (Ohio). Based on a pre- and post-test, results support the promise of using explicit questioning training in promoting the evaluative aspects of…

A Coupled Simulation Architecture for Agent-Based/Geohydrological Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaxa-Rozen, M.

2016-12-01

The quantitative modelling of social-ecological systems can provide useful insights into the interplay between social and environmental processes, and their impact on emergent system dynamics. However, such models should acknowledge the complexity and uncertainty of both of the underlying subsystems. For instance, the agent-based models which are increasingly popular for groundwater management studies can be made more useful by directly accounting for the hydrological processes which drive environmental outcomes. Conversely, conventional environmental models can benefit from an agent-based depiction of the feedbacks and heuristics which influence the decisions of groundwater users. From this perspective, this work describes a Python-based software architecture which couples the popular NetLogo agent-based platform with the MODFLOW/SEAWAT geohydrological modelling environment. This approach enables users to implement agent-based models in NetLogo's user-friendly platform, while benefiting from the full capabilities of MODFLOW/SEAWAT packages or reusing existing geohydrological models. The software architecture is based on the pyNetLogo connector, which provides an interface between the NetLogo agent-based modelling software and the Python programming language. This functionality is then extended and combined with Python's object-oriented features, to design a simulation architecture which couples NetLogo with MODFLOW/SEAWAT through the FloPy library (Bakker et al., 2016). The Python programming language also provides access to a range of external packages which can be used for testing and analysing the coupled models, which is illustrated for an application of Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES).

Fully implicit Particle-in-cell algorithms for multiscale plasma simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chacon, Luis

The outline of the paper is as follows: Particle-in-cell (PIC) methods for fully ionized collisionless plasmas, explicit vs. implicit PIC, 1D ES implicit PIC (charge and energy conservation, moment-based acceleration), and generalization to Multi-D EM PIC: Vlasov-Darwin model (review and motivation for Darwin model, conservation properties (energy, charge, and canonical momenta), and numerical benchmarks). The author demonstrates a fully implicit, fully nonlinear, multidimensional PIC formulation that features exact local charge conservation (via a novel particle mover strategy), exact global energy conservation (no particle self-heating or self-cooling), adaptive particle orbit integrator to control errors in momentum conservation, and canonical momenta (EM-PICmore » only, reduced dimensionality). The approach is free of numerical instabilities: ω peΔt >> 1, and Δx >> λ D. It requires many fewer dofs (vs. explicit PIC) for comparable accuracy in challenging problems. Significant CPU gains (vs explicit PIC) have been demonstrated. The method has much potential for efficiency gains vs. explicit in long-time-scale applications. Moment-based acceleration is effective in minimizing N FE, leading to an optimal algorithm.« less

Modeling the Internet of Things, Self-Organizing and Other Complex Adaptive Communication Networks: A Cognitive Agent-Based Computing Approach.

PubMed

Laghari, Samreen; Niazi, Muaz A

2016-01-01

Computer Networks have a tendency to grow at an unprecedented scale. Modern networks involve not only computers but also a wide variety of other interconnected devices ranging from mobile phones to other household items fitted with sensors. This vision of the "Internet of Things" (IoT) implies an inherent difficulty in modeling problems. It is practically impossible to implement and test all scenarios for large-scale and complex adaptive communication networks as part of Complex Adaptive Communication Networks and Environments (CACOONS). The goal of this study is to explore the use of Agent-based Modeling as part of the Cognitive Agent-based Computing (CABC) framework to model a Complex communication network problem. We use Exploratory Agent-based Modeling (EABM), as part of the CABC framework, to develop an autonomous multi-agent architecture for managing carbon footprint in a corporate network. To evaluate the application of complexity in practical scenarios, we have also introduced a company-defined computer usage policy. The conducted experiments demonstrated two important results: Primarily CABC-based modeling approach such as using Agent-based Modeling can be an effective approach to modeling complex problems in the domain of IoT. Secondly, the specific problem of managing the Carbon footprint can be solved using a multiagent system approach.

A surface-potential-based drain current compact model for a-InGaZnO thin-film transistors in Non-Degenerate conduction regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Fei; Ma, Xiaoyu; Deng, Wanling; Liou, Juin J.; Huang, Junkai

2017-11-01

A physics-based drain current compact model for amorphous InGaZnO (a-InGaZnO) thin-film transistors (TFTs) is proposed. As a key feature, the surface potential model accounts for both exponential tail and deep trap densities of states, which are essential to describe a-InGaZnO TFT electrical characteristics. The surface potential is solved explicitly without the process of amendment and suitable for circuit simulations. Furthermore, based on the surface potential, an explicit closed-form expression of the drain current is developed. For the cases of the different operational voltages, surface potential and drain current are verified by numerical results and experimental data, respectively. As a result, our model can predict DC characteristics of a-InGaZnO TFTs.

Theory of wavelet-based coarse-graining hierarchies for molecular dynamics.

PubMed

Rinderspacher, Berend Christopher; Bardhan, Jaydeep P; Ismail, Ahmed E

2017-07-01

We present a multiresolution approach to compressing the degrees of freedom and potentials associated with molecular dynamics, such as the bond potentials. The approach suggests a systematic way to accelerate large-scale molecular simulations with more than two levels of coarse graining, particularly applications of polymeric materials. In particular, we derive explicit models for (arbitrarily large) linear (homo)polymers and iterative methods to compute large-scale wavelet decompositions from fragment solutions. This approach does not require explicit preparation of atomistic-to-coarse-grained mappings, but instead uses the theory of diffusion wavelets for graph Laplacians to develop system-specific mappings. Our methodology leads to a hierarchy of system-specific coarse-grained degrees of freedom that provides a conceptually clear and mathematically rigorous framework for modeling chemical systems at relevant model scales. The approach is capable of automatically generating as many coarse-grained model scales as necessary, that is, to go beyond the two scales in conventional coarse-grained strategies; furthermore, the wavelet-based coarse-grained models explicitly link time and length scales. Furthermore, a straightforward method for the reintroduction of omitted degrees of freedom is presented, which plays a major role in maintaining model fidelity in long-time simulations and in capturing emergent behaviors.

Derivation of Continuum Models from An Agent-based Cancer Model: Optimization and Sensitivity Analysis.

PubMed

Voulgarelis, Dimitrios; Velayudhan, Ajoy; Smith, Frank

2017-01-01

Agent-based models provide a formidable tool for exploring complex and emergent behaviour of biological systems as well as accurate results but with the drawback of needing a lot of computational power and time for subsequent analysis. On the other hand, equation-based models can more easily be used for complex analysis in a much shorter timescale. This paper formulates an ordinary differential equations and stochastic differential equations model to capture the behaviour of an existing agent-based model of tumour cell reprogramming and applies it to optimization of possible treatment as well as dosage sensitivity analysis. For certain values of the parameter space a close match between the equation-based and agent-based models is achieved. The need for division of labour between the two approaches is explored. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Sequential Nonlinear Learning for Distributed Multiagent Systems via Extreme Learning Machines.

PubMed

Vanli, Nuri Denizcan; Sayin, Muhammed O; Delibalta, Ibrahim; Kozat, Suleyman Serdar

2017-03-01

We study online nonlinear learning over distributed multiagent systems, where each agent employs a single hidden layer feedforward neural network (SLFN) structure to sequentially minimize arbitrary loss functions. In particular, each agent trains its own SLFN using only the data that is revealed to itself. On the other hand, the aim of the multiagent system is to train the SLFN at each agent as well as the optimal centralized batch SLFN that has access to all the data, by exchanging information between neighboring agents. We address this problem by introducing a distributed subgradient-based extreme learning machine algorithm. The proposed algorithm provides guaranteed upper bounds on the performance of the SLFN at each agent and shows that each of these individual SLFNs asymptotically achieves the performance of the optimal centralized batch SLFN. Our performance guarantees explicitly distinguish the effects of data- and network-dependent parameters on the convergence rate of the proposed algorithm. The experimental results illustrate that the proposed algorithm achieves the oracle performance significantly faster than the state-of-the-art methods in the machine learning and signal processing literature. Hence, the proposed method is highly appealing for the applications involving big data.

A Symmetric Two-Locus Fertility Model

PubMed Central

Feldman, Marcus W.; Liberman, Uri

1985-01-01

A model in which selection is mediated by differential fertilities among the genotypes at two diallelic loci is proposed. Fertility depends only on the number of heterozygous loci participating in the mating. Classes analogous to symmetric equilibria in symmetric viability models are determined explicitly and shown to exhibit stability behavior very different from the viability results. Linkage equilibrium is shown to occur in a relatively asymmetric fashion and to overlap in stability with linkage disequilibrium. In many cases single-locus or two-locus polymorphism is shown to be stable simultaneously with chromosome fixation even under very tight linkage. It is suggested that historical effects may be of great significance in the evolution of systems in which fertility is the primary agent of natural selection. PMID:3967817

Valence and arousal-based affective evaluations of foods.

PubMed

Woodward, Halley E; Treat, Teresa A; Cameron, C Daryl; Yegorova, Vitaliya

2017-01-01

We investigated the nutrient-specific and individual-specific validity of dual-process models of valenced and arousal-based affective evaluations of foods across the disordered eating spectrum. 283 undergraduate women provided implicit and explicit valence and arousal-based evaluations of 120 food photos with known nutritional information on structurally similar indirect and direct affect misattribution procedures (AMP; Payne et al., 2005, 2008), and completed questionnaires assessing body mass index (BMI), hunger, restriction, and binge eating. Nomothetically, added fat and added sugar enhance evaluations of foods. Idiographically, hunger and binge eating enhance activation, whereas BMI and restriction enhance pleasantness. Added fat is salient for women who are heavier, hungrier, or who restrict; added sugar is influential for less hungry women. Restriction relates only to valence, whereas binge eating relates only to arousal. Findings are similar across implicit and explicit affective evaluations, albeit stronger for explicit, providing modest support for dual-process models of affective evaluation of foods. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-model predictive control based on LMI: from the adaptation of the state-space model to the analytic description of the control law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falugi, P.; Olaru, S.; Dumur, D.

2010-08-01

This article proposes an explicit robust predictive control solution based on linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). The considered predictive control strategy uses different local descriptions of the system dynamics and uncertainties and thus allows the handling of less conservative input constraints. The computed control law guarantees constraint satisfaction and asymptotic stability. The technique is effective for a class of nonlinear systems embedded into polytopic models. A detailed discussion of the procedures which adapt the partition of the state space is presented. For the practical implementation the construction of suitable (explicit) descriptions of the control law are described upon concrete algorithms.

Little by Little Does the Trick: Design and Construction of a Discrete Event Agent-Based Simulation Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-12-01

model. Finally, we build a small agent-based model using the component architecture to demonstrate the library’s functionality. 15. NUMBER OF...and a Behavioral model. Finally, we build a small agent-based model using the component architecture to demonstrate the library’s functionality...prototypes an architectural design which is generalizable, reusable, and extensible. We have created an initial set of model elements that demonstrate

The fractional volatility model: An agent-based interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilela Mendes, R.

2008-06-01

Based on the criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a model with volatility driven by fractional noise has been constructed which provides a fairly accurate mathematical parametrization of the data. Here, some features of the model are reviewed and extended to account for leverage effects. Using agent-based models, one tries to find which agent strategies and (or) properties of the financial institutions might be responsible for the features of the fractional volatility model.

Logistical constraints lead to an intermediate optimum in outbreak response vaccination

PubMed Central

Shea, Katriona; Ferrari, Matthew

2018-01-01

Dynamic models in disease ecology have historically evaluated vaccination strategies under the assumption that they are implemented homogeneously in space and time. However, this approach fails to formally account for operational and logistical constraints inherent in the distribution of vaccination to the population at risk. Thus, feedback between the dynamic processes of vaccine distribution and transmission might be overlooked. Here, we present a spatially explicit, stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated model that highlights the density-dependence and spatial constraints of various diffusive strategies of vaccination during an outbreak. The model integrates an agent-based process of disease spread with a partial differential process of vaccination deployment. We characterize the vaccination response in terms of a diffusion rate that describes the distribution of vaccination to the population at risk from a central location. This generates an explicit trade-off between slow diffusion, which concentrates effort near the central location, and fast diffusion, which spreads a fixed vaccination effort thinly over a large area. We use stochastic simulation to identify the optimum vaccination diffusion rate as a function of population density, interaction scale, transmissibility, and vaccine intensity. Our results show that, conditional on a timely response, the optimal strategy for minimizing outbreak size is to distribute vaccination resource at an intermediate rate: fast enough to outpace the epidemic, but slow enough to achieve local herd immunity. If the response is delayed, however, the optimal strategy for minimizing outbreak size changes to a rapidly diffusive distribution of vaccination effort. The latter may also result in significantly larger outbreaks, thus suggesting a benefit of allocating resources to timely outbreak detection and response. PMID:29791432

A place for agent-based models. Comment on "Statistical physics of crime: A review" by M.R. D'Orsogna and M. Perc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbaro, Alethea

2015-03-01

Agent-based models have been widely applied in theoretical ecology to explain migrations and other collective animal movements [2,5,8]. As D'Orsogna and Perc have expertly highlighted in [6], the recent emergence of crime modeling has opened another interesting avenue for mathematical investigation. The area of crime modeling is particularly suited to agent-based models, because these models offer a great deal of flexibility within the model and also ease of communication among criminologist, law enforcement and modelers.

Structure and dynamics of human vimentin intermediate filament dimer and tetramer in explicit and implicit solvent models.

PubMed

Qin, Zhao; Buehler, Markus J

2011-01-01

Intermediate filaments, in addition to microtubules and microfilaments, are one of the three major components of the cytoskeleton in eukaryotic cells, and play an important role in mechanotransduction as well as in providing mechanical stability to cells at large stretch. The molecular structures, mechanical and dynamical properties of the intermediate filament basic building blocks, the dimer and the tetramer, however, have remained elusive due to persistent experimental challenges owing to the large size and fibrillar geometry of this protein. We have recently reported an atomistic-level model of the human vimentin dimer and tetramer, obtained through a bottom-up approach based on structural optimization via molecular simulation based on an implicit solvent model (Qin et al. in PLoS ONE 2009 4(10):e7294, 9). Here we present extensive simulations and structural analyses of the model based on ultra large-scale atomistic-level simulations in an explicit solvent model, with system sizes exceeding 500,000 atoms and simulations carried out at 20 ns time-scales. We report a detailed comparison of the structural and dynamical behavior of this large biomolecular model with implicit and explicit solvent models. Our simulations confirm the stability of the molecular model and provide insight into the dynamical properties of the dimer and tetramer. Specifically, our simulations reveal a heterogeneous distribution of the bending stiffness along the molecular axis with the formation of rather soft and highly flexible hinge-like regions defined by non-alpha-helical linker domains. We report a comparison of Ramachandran maps and the solvent accessible surface area between implicit and explicit solvent models, and compute the persistence length of the dimer and tetramer structure of vimentin intermediate filaments for various subdomains of the protein. Our simulations provide detailed insight into the dynamical properties of the vimentin dimer and tetramer intermediate filament building blocks, which may guide the development of novel coarse-grained models of intermediate filaments, and could also help in understanding assembly mechanisms.

Multiagent intelligent systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krause, Lee S.; Dean, Christopher; Lehman, Lynn A.

2003-09-01

This paper will discuss a simulation approach based upon a family of agent-based models. As the demands placed upon simulation technology by such applications as Effects Based Operations (EBO), evaluations of indicators and warnings surrounding homeland defense and commercial demands such financial risk management current single thread based simulations will continue to show serious deficiencies. The types of "what if" analysis required to support these types of applications, demand rapidly re-configurable approaches capable of aggregating large models incorporating multiple viewpoints. The use of agent technology promises to provide a broad spectrum of models incorporating differing viewpoints through a synthesis of a collection of models. Each model would provide estimates to the overall scenario based upon their particular measure or aspect. An agent framework, denoted as the "family" would provide a common ontology in support of differing aspects of the scenario. This approach permits the future of modeling to change from viewing the problem as a single thread simulation, to take into account multiple viewpoints from different models. Even as models are updated or replaced the agent approach permits rapid inclusion in new or modified simulations. In this approach a variety of low and high-resolution information and its synthesis requires a family of models. Each agent "publishes" its support for a given measure and each model provides their own estimates on the scenario based upon their particular measure or aspect. If more than one agent provides the same measure (e.g. cognitive) then the results from these agents are combined to form an aggregate measure response. The objective would be to inform and help calibrate a qualitative model, rather than merely to present highly aggregated statistical information. As each result is processed, the next action can then be determined. This is done by a top-level decision system that communicates to the family at the ontology level without any specific understanding of the processes (or model) behind each agent. The increasingly complex demands upon simulation for the necessity to incorporate the breadth and depth of influencing factors makes a family of agent based models a promising solution. This paper will discuss that solution with syntax and semantics necessary to support the approach.

Resolving Multi-Stakeholder Robustness Asymmetries in Coupled Agricultural and Urban Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yu; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Reed, Patrick

2016-04-01

The evolving pressures from a changing climate and society are increasingly motivating decision support frameworks that consider the robustness of management actions across many possible futures. Focusing on robustness is helpful for investigating key vulnerabilities within current water systems and for identifying potential tradeoffs across candidate adaptation responses. To date, most robustness studies assume a social planner perspective by evaluating highly aggregated measures of system performance. This aggregate treatment of stakeholders does not explore the equity or intrinsic multi-stakeholder conflicts implicit to the system-wide measures of performance benefits and costs. The commonly present heterogeneity across complex management interests, however, may produce strong asymmetries for alternative adaptation options, designed to satisfy system-level targets. In this work, we advance traditional robustness decision frameworks by replacing the centralized social planner with a bottom-up, agent-based approach, where stakeholders are modeled as individuals, and represented as potentially self-interested agents. This agent-based model enables a more explicit exploration of the potential inequities and asymmetries in the distribution of the system-wide benefit. The approach is demonstrated by exploring the potential conflicts between urban flooding and agricultural production in the Lake Como system (Italy). Lake Como is a regulated lake that is operated to supply water to the downstream agricultural district (Muzza as the pilot study area in this work) composed of a set of farmers with heterogeneous characteristics in terms of water allocation, cropping patterns, and land properties. Supplying water to farmers increases the risk of floods along the lakeshore and therefore the system is operated based on the tradeoff between these two objectives. We generated an ensemble of co-varying climate and socio-economic conditions and evaluated the robustness of the current Lake Como system management as well as of possible adaptation options (e.g., improved irrigation efficiency or changes in the dam operating rules). Numerical results show that crops prices and costs are the main drivers of the simulated system failures when evaluated in terms of system-level expected profitability. Analysis conducted at the farmer-agent scale highlights alternatively that temperature and inflows are the critical drivers leading to failures. Finally, we show that the robustness of the considered adaptation options varies spatially, strongly influenced by stakeholders' context, the metrics used to define success, and the assumed preferences for reservoir operations in balancing urban flooding and agricultural productivity.

Multiscale Modeling of Angiogenesis and Predictive Capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillay, Samara; Byrne, Helen; Maini, Philip

Tumors induce the growth of new blood vessels from existing vasculature through angiogenesis. Using an agent-based approach, we model the behavior of individual endothelial cells during angiogenesis. We incorporate crowding effects through volume exclusion, motility of cells through biased random walks, and include birth and death-like processes. We use the transition probabilities associated with the discrete model and a discrete conservation equation for cell occupancy to determine collective cell behavior, in terms of partial differential equations (PDEs). We derive three PDE models incorporating single, multi-species and no volume exclusion. By fitting the parameters in our PDE models and other well-established continuum models to agent-based simulations during a specific time period, and then comparing the outputs from the PDE models and agent-based model at later times, we aim to determine how well the PDE models predict the future behavior of the agent-based model. We also determine whether predictions differ across PDE models and the significance of those differences. This may impact drug development strategies based on PDE models.

Relative complexation energies for Li(+) ion in solution: molecular level solvation versus polarizable continuum model study.

PubMed

Eilmes, Andrzej; Kubisiak, Piotr

2010-01-21

Relative complexation energies for the lithium cation in acetonitrile and diethyl ether have been studied. Quantum-chemical calculations explicitly describing the solvation of Li(+) have been performed based on structures obtained from molecular dynamics simulations. The effect of an increasing number of solvent molecules beyond the first solvation shell has been found to consist in reduction of the differences in complexation energies for different coordination numbers. Explicit-solvation data have served as a benchmark to the results of polarizable continuum model (PCM) calculations. It has been demonstrated that the PCM approach can yield relative complexation energies comparable to the predictions based on molecular-level solvation, but at significantly lower computational cost. The best agreement between the explicit-solvation and the PCM results has been obtained when the van der Waals surface was adopted to build the molecular cavity.

Development and verification of an agent-based model of opinion leadership.

PubMed

Anderson, Christine A; Titler, Marita G

2014-09-27

The use of opinion leaders is a strategy used to speed the process of translating research into practice. Much is still unknown about opinion leader attributes and activities and the context in which they are most effective. Agent-based modeling is a methodological tool that enables demonstration of the interactive and dynamic effects of individuals and their behaviors on other individuals in the environment. The purpose of this study was to develop and test an agent-based model of opinion leadership. The details of the design and verification of the model are presented. The agent-based model was developed by using a software development platform to translate an underlying conceptual model of opinion leadership into a computer model. Individual agent attributes (for example, motives and credibility) and behaviors (seeking or providing an opinion) were specified as variables in the model in the context of a fictitious patient care unit. The verification process was designed to test whether or not the agent-based model was capable of reproducing the conditions of the preliminary conceptual model. The verification methods included iterative programmatic testing ('debugging') and exploratory analysis of simulated data obtained from execution of the model. The simulation tests included a parameter sweep, in which the model input variables were adjusted systematically followed by an individual time series experiment. Statistical analysis of model output for the 288 possible simulation scenarios in the parameter sweep revealed that the agent-based model was performing, consistent with the posited relationships in the underlying model. Nurse opinion leaders act on the strength of their beliefs and as a result, become an opinion resource for their uncertain colleagues, depending on their perceived credibility. Over time, some nurses consistently act as this type of resource and have the potential to emerge as opinion leaders in a context where uncertainty exists. The development and testing of agent-based models is an iterative process. The opinion leader model presented here provides a basic structure for continued model development, ongoing verification, and the establishment of validation procedures, including empirical data collection.

Modeling Temporal and Spatial Flows of Ecosystem Services in Chittenden County, VT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, B. G.; Bagstad, K.; Johnson, G.; Villa, F.

2010-12-01

This paper documents the integration of ARIES (ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services) with the land use change model UrbanSim to explore the impacts of current and future land use patterns on flood protection and water provision services in Chittenden County, VT. ARIES, an open source modeling platform, is particularly well-suited for measuring, mapping, and modeling the temporal and spatial flows of ecosystem services across the landscape, linking the areas of provision (sources) with human beneficiaries (users) through a spatially explicit agent-based modeling approach. UrbanSim is an open source agent-based land use model designed to facilitate a wide-range of scenarios based on user-specified behavioral assumptions, zoning regulations, and demographic, economic, and infrastructure (e.g. transportation, water, sewer, etc.) parameters. Ecosystem services travel through time and space and are susceptible to disruption and destruction from both natural and anthropogenic perturbations. The conversion of forested or agricultural land to urbanizing uses is replete with a long history of hydrologic impairment, habitat fragmentation, and the degradation of sensitive landscapes. Development decisions are predicated on the presence of landscape characteristics that meet the needs of developers and satisfy the desires of consumers, with minimal consideration of access to or effect on the provision of ecosystem services. The County houses nearly 25% of the state’s population and several employment centers that draw labor from throughout the region. Additionally, the County is expected to maintain modest residential and employment growth over the next 30 years, and will continue to serve as the state’s population and employment center. Expected future growth is likely to adversely affect the remaining farm and forest land in the County in the absence of policies to support sustainable development. We demonstrate how ARIES can be used to quantify changes in ecosystem service provision based on the outcomes of alternative land use change model scenarios. Stakeholder workshops were hosted to develop scenarios relevant to planning for future growth in the County, including alternative zoning regulations, road network improvements, and a range of future population projections. The results of the land use change simulations were passed to ARIES to model flood protection and water provision services for each of the alternative scenarios. We present Bayesian models of the ecosystem services as individual source, sink, and use components coupled with models of temporal and spatial flows of services across the landscape. Specific beneficiaries include homeowners, farmers, and other business property owners. The location choice decisions of residential and non-residential agents under the alternative scenarios resulted in varying access to ecosystem services depending on development density, habitat fragmentation, and the degree of hydrological impairment, among other factors. Modeled outputs include maps depicting flow paths (linking sources to beneficiaries), changes in land use, hotspot locations that are critical to sustain the flow of services across the landscape, and the demand for and supply of the modeled services.

Simulating malaria transmission in the current and future climate of West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Bomblies, A.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2015-12-01

Malaria transmission in West Africa is closely tied to climate, as rain fed water pools provide breeding habitat for the anopheles mosquito vector, and temperature affects the mosquito's ability to spread disease. We present results of a highly detailed, spatially explicit mechanistic modelling study exploring the relationships between the environment and malaria in the current and future climate of West Africa. A mechanistic model of human immunity was incorporated into an existing agent-based model of malaria transmission, allowing us to move beyond entomological measures such as mosquito density and vectorial capacity to analyzing the prevalence of the malaria parasite within human populations. The result is a novel modelling tool that mechanistically simulates all of the key processes linking environment to malaria transmission. Simulations were conducted across climate zones in West Africa, linking temperature and rainfall to entomological and epidemiological variables with a focus on nonlinearities due to threshold effects and interannual variability. Comparisons to observations from the region confirmed that the model provides a reasonable representation of the entomological and epidemiological conditions in this region. We used the predictions of future climate from the most credible CMIP5 climate models to predict the change in frequency and severity of malaria epidemics in West Africa as a result of climate change.

Invasion and Persistence of Infectious Agents in Fragmented Host Populations

PubMed Central

Jesse, Marieke; Mazzucco, Rupert; Dieckmann, Ulf; Heesterbeek, Hans; Metz, Johan A. J.

2011-01-01

One of the important questions in understanding infectious diseases and their prevention and control is how infectious agents can invade and become endemic in a host population. A ubiquitous feature of natural populations is that they are spatially fragmented, resulting in relatively homogeneous local populations inhabiting patches connected by the migration of hosts. Such fragmented population structures are studied extensively with metapopulation models. Being able to define and calculate an indicator for the success of invasion and persistence of an infectious agent is essential for obtaining general qualitative insights into infection dynamics, for the comparison of prevention and control scenarios, and for quantitative insights into specific systems. For homogeneous populations, the basic reproduction ratio plays this role. For metapopulations, defining such an ‘invasion indicator’ is not straightforward. Some indicators have been defined for specific situations, e.g., the household reproduction number . However, these existing indicators often fail to account for host demography and especially host migration. Here we show how to calculate a more broadly applicable indicator for the invasion and persistence of infectious agents in a host metapopulation of equally connected patches, for a wide range of possible epidemiological models. A strong feature of our method is that it explicitly accounts for host demography and host migration. Using a simple compartmental system as an example, we illustrate how can be calculated and expressed in terms of the key determinants of epidemiological dynamics. PMID:21980339

The Application of FIA-based Data to Wildlife Habitat Modeling: A Comparative Study

Treesearch

Thomas C., Jr. Edwards; Gretchen G. Moisen; Tracey S. Frescino; Randall J. Schultz

2005-01-01

We evaluated the capability of two types of models, one based on spatially explicit variables derived from FIA data and one using so-called traditional habitat evaluation methods, for predicting the presence of cavity-nesting bird habitat in Fishlake National Forest, Utah. Both models performed equally well, in measures of predictive accuracy, with the FIA-based model...

Agent-Based vs. Equation-based Epidemiological Models:A Model Selection Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sukumar, Sreenivas R; Nutaro, James J

This paper is motivated by the need to design model validation strategies for epidemiological disease-spread models. We consider both agent-based and equation-based models of pandemic disease spread and study the nuances and complexities one has to consider from the perspective of model validation. For this purpose, we instantiate an equation based model and an agent based model of the 1918 Spanish flu and we leverage data published in the literature for our case- study. We present our observations from the perspective of each implementation and discuss the application of model-selection criteria to compare the risk in choosing one modeling paradigmmore » to another. We conclude with a discussion of our experience and document future ideas for a model validation framework.« less

An analysis of hospital capital planning and financing in three European countries: Using the principal-agent approach to identify the potential for economic problems.

PubMed

Thompson, Ceri R; McKee, Martin

2011-02-01

To explore differences in national approaches to hospital capital planning and financing in three European countries and to understand the roles and positions of the actors involved. Case studies of major new hospital developments were undertaken in each of the study countries (France, Sweden and England), based on a review of documents related to each development and the national framework within which they took place, as well as interviews with key informants. The principal-agent model was used, focusing on identification of differing utilities and information asymmetries. There are substantial differences between countries, for example in relation to the role of the hospital in its own redevelopment, the organisational distance between actors, the institutional level at which decision rights for major investments are exercised, and how principals control the agents. These differences have implications for the processes involved and the nature of economic and health care problems that can arise. There is evidence of, and opportunity for economic problems in all systems but these seems to be greater in France and England where the hospital leads the process, where there is limited involvement by the regional bodies, and informational differences appear greater. We conclude that hospital planning processes should be informed by an explicit understanding of the powerful groups involved and their divergent preferences and utilities. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Situation awareness-based agent transparency for human-autonomy teaming effectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jessie Y. C.; Barnes, Michael J.; Wright, Julia L.; Stowers, Kimberly; Lakhmani, Shan G.

2017-05-01

We developed the Situation awareness-based Agent Transparency (SAT) model to support human operators' situation awareness of the mission environment through teaming with intelligent agents. The model includes the agent's current actions and plans (Level 1), its reasoning process (Level 2), and its projection of future outcomes (Level 3). Human-inthe-loop simulation experiments have been conducted (Autonomous Squad Member and IMPACT) to illustrate the utility of the model for human-autonomy team interface designs. Across studies, the results consistently showed that human operators' task performance improved as the agents became more transparent. They also perceived transparent agents as more trustworthy.

Multi-agent systems in epidemiology: a first step for computational biology in the study of vector-borne disease transmission.

PubMed

Roche, Benjamin; Guégan, Jean-François; Bousquet, François

2008-10-15

Computational biology is often associated with genetic or genomic studies only. However, thanks to the increase of computational resources, computational models are appreciated as useful tools in many other scientific fields. Such modeling systems are particularly relevant for the study of complex systems, like the epidemiology of emerging infectious diseases. So far, mathematical models remain the main tool for the epidemiological and ecological analysis of infectious diseases, with SIR models could be seen as an implicit standard in epidemiology. Unfortunately, these models are based on differential equations and, therefore, can become very rapidly unmanageable due to the too many parameters which need to be taken into consideration. For instance, in the case of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases in wildlife many different potential host species could be involved in the life-cycle of disease transmission, and SIR models might not be the most suitable tool to truly capture the overall disease circulation within that environment. This limitation underlines the necessity to develop a standard spatial model that can cope with the transmission of disease in realistic ecosystems. Computational biology may prove to be flexible enough to take into account the natural complexity observed in both natural and man-made ecosystems. In this paper, we propose a new computational model to study the transmission of infectious diseases in a spatially explicit context. We developed a multi-agent system model for vector-borne disease transmission in a realistic spatial environment. Here we describe in detail the general behavior of this model that we hope will become a standard reference for the study of vector-borne disease transmission in wildlife. To conclude, we show how this simple model could be easily adapted and modified to be used as a common framework for further research developments in this field.

AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED SIMULATION MODEL FOR MOTTLED SCULPIN (COTTUS BAIRDI) IN A SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN STREAM

EPA Science Inventory

We describe and analyze a spatially explicit, individual-based model for the local population dynamics of mottled sculpin (Cottus bairdi). The model simulated daily growth, mortality, movement and spawning of individuals within a reach of stream. Juvenile and adult growth was bas...

The behavior of multiple independent managers and ecological traits interact to determine prevalence of weeds.

PubMed

Coutts, Shaun R; Yokomizo, Hiroyuki; Buckley, Yvonne M

2013-04-01

Management of damaging invasive plants is often undertaken by multiple decision makers, each managing only a small part of the invader's population. As weeds can move between properties and re-infest eradicated sites from unmanaged sources, the dynamics of multiple decision makers plays a significant role in weed prevalence and invasion risk at the landscape scale. We used a spatially explicit agent-based simulation to determine how individual agent behavior, in concert with weed population ecology, determined weed prevalence. We compared two invasive grass species that differ in ecology, control methods, and costs: Nassella trichotoma (serrated tussock) and Eragrostis curvula (African love grass). The way decision makers reacted to the benefit of management had a large effect on the extent of a weed. If benefits of weed control outweighed the costs, and either net benefit was very large or all agents were very sensitive to net benefits, then agents tended to act synchronously, reducing the pool of infested agents available to spread the weed. As N. trichotoma was more damaging than E. curvula and had more effective control methods, agents chose to manage it more often, which resulted in lower prevalence of N. trichotoma. A relatively low number of agents who were intrinsically less motivated to control weeds led to increased prevalence of both species. This was particularly apparent when long-distance dispersal meant each infested agent increased the invasion risk for a large portion of the landscape. In this case, a small proportion of land mangers reluctant to control, regardless of costs and benefits, could lead to the whole landscape being infested, even when local control stopped new infestations. Social pressure was important, but only if it was independent of weed prevalence, suggesting that early access to information, and incentives to act on that information, may be crucial in stopping a weed from infesting large areas. The response of our model to both behavioral and ecological parameters was highly nonlinear. This implies that the outcomes of weed management programs that deal with multiple land mangers could be highly variable in both space and through time.

Agent-based modeling as a tool for program design and evaluation.

PubMed

Lawlor, Jennifer A; McGirr, Sara

2017-12-01

Recently, systems thinking and systems science approaches have gained popularity in the field of evaluation; however, there has been relatively little exploration of how evaluators could use quantitative tools to assist in the implementation of systems approaches therein. The purpose of this paper is to explore potential uses of one such quantitative tool, agent-based modeling, in evaluation practice. To this end, we define agent-based modeling and offer potential uses for it in typical evaluation activities, including: engaging stakeholders, selecting an intervention, modeling program theory, setting performance targets, and interpreting evaluation results. We provide demonstrative examples from published agent-based modeling efforts both inside and outside the field of evaluation for each of the evaluative activities discussed. We further describe potential pitfalls of this tool and offer cautions for evaluators who may chose to implement it in their practice. Finally, the article concludes with a discussion of the future of agent-based modeling in evaluation practice and a call for more formal exploration of this tool as well as other approaches to simulation modeling in the field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Agent Based Modeling of Collaboration and Work Practices Onboard the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acquisti, Alessandro; Sierhuis, Maarten; Clancey, William J.; Bradshaw, Jeffrey M.; Shaffo, Mike (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The International Space Station is one the most complex projects ever, with numerous interdependent constraints affecting productivity and crew safety. This requires planning years before crew expeditions, and the use of sophisticated scheduling tools. Human work practices, however, are difficult to study and represent within traditional planning tools. We present an agent-based model and simulation of the activities and work practices of astronauts onboard the ISS based on an agent-oriented approach. The model represents 'a day in the life' of the ISS crew and is developed in Brahms, an agent-oriented, activity-based language used to model knowledge in situated action and learning in human activities.

An individual-based simulation model for mottled sculpin (Cottus bairdi) in a southern Appalachian stream

Treesearch

Brenda Rashleigh; Gary D. Grossman

2005-01-01

We describe and analyze a spatially explicit, individual-based model for the local population dynamics of mottled sculpin (Cottus bairdi). The model simulated daily growth, mortality, movement and spawning of individuals within a reach of stream. Juvenile and adult growth was based on consumption bioenergetics of benthic macroinvertebrate prey;...

Ensuring congruency in multiscale modeling: towards linking agent based and continuum biomechanical models of arterial adaptation.

PubMed

Hayenga, Heather N; Thorne, Bryan C; Peirce, Shayn M; Humphrey, Jay D

2011-11-01

There is a need to develop multiscale models of vascular adaptations to understand tissue-level manifestations of cellular level mechanisms. Continuum-based biomechanical models are well suited for relating blood pressures and flows to stress-mediated changes in geometry and properties, but less so for describing underlying mechanobiological processes. Discrete stochastic agent-based models are well suited for representing biological processes at a cellular level, but not for describing tissue-level mechanical changes. We present here a conceptually new approach to facilitate the coupling of continuum and agent-based models. Because of ubiquitous limitations in both the tissue- and cell-level data from which one derives constitutive relations for continuum models and rule-sets for agent-based models, we suggest that model verification should enforce congruency across scales. That is, multiscale model parameters initially determined from data sets representing different scales should be refined, when possible, to ensure that common outputs are consistent. Potential advantages of this approach are illustrated by comparing simulated aortic responses to a sustained increase in blood pressure predicted by continuum and agent-based models both before and after instituting a genetic algorithm to refine 16 objectively bounded model parameters. We show that congruency-based parameter refinement not only yielded increased consistency across scales, it also yielded predictions that are closer to in vivo observations.

Agent-Based Model Approach to Complex Phenomena in Real Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyetomi, H.; Aoyama, H.; Fujiwara, Y.; Ikeda, Y.; Souma, W.

An agent-based model for firms' dynamics is developed. The model consists of firm agents with identical characteristic parameters and a bank agent. Dynamics of those agents are described by their balance sheets. Each firm tries to maximize its expected profit with possible risks in market. Infinite growth of a firm directed by the ``profit maximization" principle is suppressed by a concept of ``going concern". Possibility of bankruptcy of firms is also introduced by incorporating a retardation effect of information on firms' decision. The firms, mutually interacting through the monopolistic bank, become heterogeneous in the course of temporal evolution. Statistical properties of firms' dynamics obtained by simulations based on the model are discussed in light of observations in the real economy.

Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

2015-04-01

Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

Modeling the Internet of Things, Self-Organizing and Other Complex Adaptive Communication Networks: A Cognitive Agent-Based Computing Approach

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background Computer Networks have a tendency to grow at an unprecedented scale. Modern networks involve not only computers but also a wide variety of other interconnected devices ranging from mobile phones to other household items fitted with sensors. This vision of the "Internet of Things" (IoT) implies an inherent difficulty in modeling problems. Purpose It is practically impossible to implement and test all scenarios for large-scale and complex adaptive communication networks as part of Complex Adaptive Communication Networks and Environments (CACOONS). The goal of this study is to explore the use of Agent-based Modeling as part of the Cognitive Agent-based Computing (CABC) framework to model a Complex communication network problem. Method We use Exploratory Agent-based Modeling (EABM), as part of the CABC framework, to develop an autonomous multi-agent architecture for managing carbon footprint in a corporate network. To evaluate the application of complexity in practical scenarios, we have also introduced a company-defined computer usage policy. Results The conducted experiments demonstrated two important results: Primarily CABC-based modeling approach such as using Agent-based Modeling can be an effective approach to modeling complex problems in the domain of IoT. Secondly, the specific problem of managing the Carbon footprint can be solved using a multiagent system approach. PMID:26812235

DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation.

PubMed

Zhang, Laobing; Landucci, Gabriele; Reniers, Genserik; Khakzad, Nima; Zhou, Jianfeng

2017-12-19

Historical data analysis shows that escalation accidents, so-called domino effects, have an important role in disastrous accidents in the chemical and process industries. In this study, an agent-based modeling and simulation approach is proposed to study the propagation of domino effects in the chemical and process industries. Different from the analytical or Monte Carlo simulation approaches, which normally study the domino effect at probabilistic network levels, the agent-based modeling technique explains the domino effects from a bottom-up perspective. In this approach, the installations involved in a domino effect are modeled as agents whereas the interactions among the installations (e.g., by means of heat radiation) are modeled via the basic rules of the agents. Application of the developed model to several case studies demonstrates the ability of the model not only in modeling higher-level domino effects and synergistic effects but also in accounting for temporal dependencies. The model can readily be applied to large-scale complicated cases. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

An entropic barriers diffusion theory of decision-making in multiple alternative tasks

PubMed Central

Sigman, Mariano; Cecchi, Guillermo A.

2018-01-01

We present a theory of decision-making in the presence of multiple choices that departs from traditional approaches by explicitly incorporating entropic barriers in a stochastic search process. We analyze response time data from an on-line repository of 15 million blitz chess games, and show that our model fits not just the mean and variance, but the entire response time distribution (over several response-time orders of magnitude) at every stage of the game. We apply the model to show that (a) higher cognitive expertise corresponds to the exploration of more complex solution spaces, and (b) reaction times of users at an on-line buying website can be similarly explained. Our model can be seen as a synergy between diffusion models used to model simple two-choice decision-making and planning agents in complex problem solving. PMID:29499036

A physical data model for fields and agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, Kor; de Bakker, Merijn; Karssenberg, Derek

2016-04-01

Two approaches exist in simulation modeling: agent-based and field-based modeling. In agent-based (or individual-based) simulation modeling, the entities representing the system's state are represented by objects, which are bounded in space and time. Individual objects, like an animal, a house, or a more abstract entity like a country's economy, have properties representing their state. In an agent-based model this state is manipulated. In field-based modeling, the entities representing the system's state are represented by fields. Fields capture the state of a continuous property within a spatial extent, examples of which are elevation, atmospheric pressure, and water flow velocity. With respect to the technology used to create these models, the domains of agent-based and field-based modeling have often been separate worlds. In environmental modeling, widely used logical data models include feature data models for point, line and polygon objects, and the raster data model for fields. Simulation models are often either agent-based or field-based, even though the modeled system might contain both entities that are better represented by individuals and entities that are better represented by fields. We think that the reason for this dichotomy in kinds of models might be that the traditional object and field data models underlying those models are relatively low level. We have developed a higher level conceptual data model for representing both non-spatial and spatial objects, and spatial fields (De Bakker et al. 2016). Based on this conceptual data model we designed a logical and physical data model for representing many kinds of data, including the kinds used in earth system modeling (e.g. hydrological and ecological models). The goal of this work is to be able to create high level code and tools for the creation of models in which entities are representable by both objects and fields. Our conceptual data model is capable of representing the traditional feature data models and the raster data model, among many other data models. Our physical data model is capable of storing a first set of kinds of data, like omnipresent scalars, mobile spatio-temporal points and property values, and spatio-temporal rasters. With our poster we will provide an overview of the physical data model expressed in HDF5 and show examples of how it can be used to capture both object- and field-based information. References De Bakker, M, K. de Jong, D. Karssenberg. 2016. A conceptual data model and language for fields and agents. European Geosciences Union, EGU General Assembly, 2016, Vienna.

The kinetics of heterogeneous nucleation and growth: an approach based on a grain explicit model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouet-Leduc, B.; Maillet, J.-B.; Denoual, C.

2014-04-01

A model for phase transitions initiated on grain boundaries is proposed and tested against numerical simulations: this approach, based on a grain explicit model, allows us to consider the granular structure, resulting in accurate predictions for a wide span of nucleation processes. Comparisons are made with classical models of homogeneous (JMAK: Johnson and Mehl 1939 Trans. Am. Inst. Min. Eng. 135 416; Avrami 1939 J. Chem. Phys. 7 1103; Kolmogorov 1937 Bull. Acad. Sci. USSR, Mat. Ser. 1 335) as well as heterogeneous (Cahn 1996 Thermodynamics and Kinetics of Phase Transformations Im et al (Pittsburgh: Materials Research Society)) nucleation. A transition scale based on material properties is proposed, allowing us to discriminate between random and site-saturated regimes. Finally, we discuss the relationship between an Avrami-type exponent and the transition regime, establishing conditions for its extraction from experiments.

Alternative modeling methods for plasma-based Rf ion sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veitzer, Seth A., E-mail: veitzer@txcorp.com; Kundrapu, Madhusudhan, E-mail: madhusnk@txcorp.com; Stoltz, Peter H., E-mail: phstoltz@txcorp.com

Rf-driven ion sources for accelerators and many industrial applications benefit from detailed numerical modeling and simulation of plasma characteristics. For instance, modeling of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) internal antenna H{sup −} source has indicated that a large plasma velocity is induced near bends in the antenna where structural failures are often observed. This could lead to improved designs and ion source performance based on simulation and modeling. However, there are significant separations of time and spatial scales inherent to Rf-driven plasma ion sources, which makes it difficult to model ion sources with explicit, kinetic Particle-In-Cell (PIC) simulation codes. Inmore » particular, if both electron and ion motions are to be explicitly modeled, then the simulation time step must be very small, and total simulation times must be large enough to capture the evolution of the plasma ions, as well as extending over many Rf periods. Additional physics processes such as plasma chemistry and surface effects such as secondary electron emission increase the computational requirements in such a way that even fully parallel explicit PIC models cannot be used. One alternative method is to develop fluid-based codes coupled with electromagnetics in order to model ion sources. Time-domain fluid models can simulate plasma evolution, plasma chemistry, and surface physics models with reasonable computational resources by not explicitly resolving electron motions, which thereby leads to an increase in the time step. This is achieved by solving fluid motions coupled with electromagnetics using reduced-physics models, such as single-temperature magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), extended, gas dynamic, and Hall MHD, and two-fluid MHD models. We show recent results on modeling the internal antenna H{sup −} ion source for the SNS at Oak Ridge National Laboratory using the fluid plasma modeling code USim. We compare demonstrate plasma temperature equilibration in two-temperature MHD models for the SNS source and present simulation results demonstrating plasma evolution over many Rf periods for different plasma temperatures. We perform the calculations in parallel, on unstructured meshes, using finite-volume solvers in order to obtain results in reasonable time.« less

Alternative modeling methods for plasma-based Rf ion sources.

PubMed

Veitzer, Seth A; Kundrapu, Madhusudhan; Stoltz, Peter H; Beckwith, Kristian R C

2016-02-01

Rf-driven ion sources for accelerators and many industrial applications benefit from detailed numerical modeling and simulation of plasma characteristics. For instance, modeling of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) internal antenna H(-) source has indicated that a large plasma velocity is induced near bends in the antenna where structural failures are often observed. This could lead to improved designs and ion source performance based on simulation and modeling. However, there are significant separations of time and spatial scales inherent to Rf-driven plasma ion sources, which makes it difficult to model ion sources with explicit, kinetic Particle-In-Cell (PIC) simulation codes. In particular, if both electron and ion motions are to be explicitly modeled, then the simulation time step must be very small, and total simulation times must be large enough to capture the evolution of the plasma ions, as well as extending over many Rf periods. Additional physics processes such as plasma chemistry and surface effects such as secondary electron emission increase the computational requirements in such a way that even fully parallel explicit PIC models cannot be used. One alternative method is to develop fluid-based codes coupled with electromagnetics in order to model ion sources. Time-domain fluid models can simulate plasma evolution, plasma chemistry, and surface physics models with reasonable computational resources by not explicitly resolving electron motions, which thereby leads to an increase in the time step. This is achieved by solving fluid motions coupled with electromagnetics using reduced-physics models, such as single-temperature magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), extended, gas dynamic, and Hall MHD, and two-fluid MHD models. We show recent results on modeling the internal antenna H(-) ion source for the SNS at Oak Ridge National Laboratory using the fluid plasma modeling code USim. We compare demonstrate plasma temperature equilibration in two-temperature MHD models for the SNS source and present simulation results demonstrating plasma evolution over many Rf periods for different plasma temperatures. We perform the calculations in parallel, on unstructured meshes, using finite-volume solvers in order to obtain results in reasonable time.

Toward an Optimal Pedagogy for Teamwork.

PubMed

Earnest, Mark A; Williams, Jason; Aagaard, Eva M

2017-10-01

Teamwork and collaboration are increasingly listed as core competencies for undergraduate health professions education. Despite the clear mandate for teamwork training, the optimal method for providing that training is much less certain. In this Perspective, the authors propose a three-level classification of pedagogical approaches to teamwork training based on the presence of two key learning factors: interdependent work and explicit training in teamwork. In this classification framework, level 1-minimal team learning-is where learners work in small groups but neither of the key learning factors is present. Level 2-implicit team learning-engages learners in interdependent learning activities but does not include an explicit focus on teamwork. Level 3-explicit team learning-creates environments where teams work interdependently toward common goals and are given explicit instruction and practice in teamwork. The authors provide examples that demonstrate each level. They then propose that the third level of team learning, explicit team learning, represents a best practice approach in teaching teamwork, highlighting their experience with an explicit team learning course at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus. Finally, they discuss several challenges to implementing explicit team-learning-based curricula: the lack of a common teamwork model on which to anchor such a curriculum; the question of whether the knowledge, skills, and attitudes acquired during training would be transferable to the authentic clinical environment; and effectively evaluating the impact of explicit team learning.

Testing the Use of Implicit Solvent in the Molecular Dynamics Modelling of DNA Flexibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, J.; Harris, S.

DNA flexibility controls packaging, looping and in some cases sequence specific protein binding. Molecular dynamics simulations carried out with a computationally efficient implicit solvent model are potentially a powerful tool for studying larger DNA molecules than can be currently simulated when water and counterions are represented explicitly. In this work we compare DNA flexibility at the base pair step level modelled using an implicit solvent model to that previously determined from explicit solvent simulations and database analysis. Although much of the sequence dependent behaviour is preserved in implicit solvent, the DNA is considerably more flexible when the approximate model is used. In addition we test the ability of the implicit solvent to model stress induced DNA disruptions by simulating a series of DNA minicircle topoisomers which vary in size and superhelical density. When compared with previously run explicit solvent simulations, we find that while the levels of DNA denaturation are similar using both computational methodologies, the specific structural form of the disruptions is different.

Background-Error Correlation Model Based on the Implicit Solution of a Diffusion Equation

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

1 Background- Error Correlation Model Based on the Implicit Solution of a Diffusion Equation Matthew J. Carrier* and Hans Ngodock...4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Background- Error Correlation Model Based on the Implicit Solution of a Diffusion Equation 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT...2001), which sought to model error correlations based on the explicit solution of a generalized diffusion equation. The implicit solution is

Agent-Based Modeling of Cancer Stem Cell Driven Solid Tumor Growth.

PubMed

Poleszczuk, Jan; Macklin, Paul; Enderling, Heiko

2016-01-01

Computational modeling of tumor growth has become an invaluable tool to simulate complex cell-cell interactions and emerging population-level dynamics. Agent-based models are commonly used to describe the behavior and interaction of individual cells in different environments. Behavioral rules can be informed and calibrated by in vitro assays, and emerging population-level dynamics may be validated with both in vitro and in vivo experiments. Here, we describe the design and implementation of a lattice-based agent-based model of cancer stem cell driven tumor growth.

Constant pH Molecular Dynamics of Proteins in Explicit Solvent with Proton Tautomerism

PubMed Central

Goh, Garrett B.; Hulbert, Benjamin S.; Zhou, Huiqing; Brooks, Charles L.

2015-01-01

pH is a ubiquitous regulator of biological activity, including protein-folding, protein-protein interactions and enzymatic activity. Existing constant pH molecular dynamics (CPHMD) models that were developed to address questions related to the pH-dependent properties of proteins are largely based on implicit solvent models. However, implicit solvent models are known to underestimate the desolvation energy of buried charged residues, increasing the error associated with predictions that involve internal ionizable residue that are important in processes like hydrogen transport and electron transfer. Furthermore, discrete water and ions cannot be modeled in implicit solvent, which are important in systems like membrane proteins and ion channels. We report on an explicit solvent constant pH molecular dynamics framework based on multi-site λ-dynamics (CPHMDMSλD). In the CPHMDMSλD framework, we performed seamless alchemical transitions between protonation and tautomeric states using multi-site λ-dynamics, and designed novel biasing potentials to ensure that the physical end-states are predominantly sampled. We show that explicit solvent CPHMDMSλD simulations model realistic pH-dependent properties of proteins such as the Hen-Egg White Lysozyme (HEWL), binding domain of 2-oxoglutarate dehydrogenase (BBL) and N-terminal domain of ribosomal L9 (NTL9), and the pKa predictions are in excellent agreement with experimental values, with a RMSE ranging from 0.72 to 0.84 pKa units. With the recent development of the explicit solvent CPHMDMSλD framework for nucleic acids, accurate modeling of pH-dependent properties of both major class of biomolecules – proteins and nucleic acids is now possible. PMID:24375620

Model reduction for agent-based social simulation: coarse-graining a civil violence model.

PubMed

Zou, Yu; Fonoberov, Vladimir A; Fonoberova, Maria; Mezic, Igor; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G

2012-06-01

Agent-based modeling (ABM) constitutes a powerful computational tool for the exploration of phenomena involving emergent dynamic behavior in the social sciences. This paper demonstrates a computer-assisted approach that bridges the significant gap between the single-agent microscopic level and the macroscopic (coarse-grained population) level, where fundamental questions must be rationally answered and policies guiding the emergent dynamics devised. Our approach will be illustrated through an agent-based model of civil violence. This spatiotemporally varying ABM incorporates interactions between a heterogeneous population of citizens [active (insurgent), inactive, or jailed] and a population of police officers. Detailed simulations exhibit an equilibrium punctuated by periods of social upheavals. We show how to effectively reduce the agent-based dynamics to a stochastic model with only two coarse-grained degrees of freedom: the number of jailed citizens and the number of active ones. The coarse-grained model captures the ABM dynamics while drastically reducing the computation time (by a factor of approximately 20).

Model reduction for agent-based social simulation: Coarse-graining a civil violence model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Yu; Fonoberov, Vladimir A.; Fonoberova, Maria; Mezic, Igor; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.

2012-06-01

Agent-based modeling (ABM) constitutes a powerful computational tool for the exploration of phenomena involving emergent dynamic behavior in the social sciences. This paper demonstrates a computer-assisted approach that bridges the significant gap between the single-agent microscopic level and the macroscopic (coarse-grained population) level, where fundamental questions must be rationally answered and policies guiding the emergent dynamics devised. Our approach will be illustrated through an agent-based model of civil violence. This spatiotemporally varying ABM incorporates interactions between a heterogeneous population of citizens [active (insurgent), inactive, or jailed] and a population of police officers. Detailed simulations exhibit an equilibrium punctuated by periods of social upheavals. We show how to effectively reduce the agent-based dynamics to a stochastic model with only two coarse-grained degrees of freedom: the number of jailed citizens and the number of active ones. The coarse-grained model captures the ABM dynamics while drastically reducing the computation time (by a factor of approximately 20).

A Comparative Study of Probability Collectives Based Multi-agent Systems and Genetic Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, Chien-Feng; Wolpert, David H.; Bieniawski, Stefan; Strauss, Charles E. M.

2005-01-01

We compare Genetic Algorithms (GA's) with Probability Collectives (PC), a new framework for distributed optimization and control. In contrast to GA's, PC-based methods do not update populations of solutions. Instead they update an explicitly parameterized probability distribution p over the space of solutions. That updating of p arises as the optimization of a functional of p. The functional is chosen so that any p that optimizes it should be p peaked about good solutions. The PC approach works in both continuous and discrete problems. It does not suffer from the resolution limitation of the finite bit length encoding of parameters into GA alleles. It also has deep connections with both game theory and statistical physics. We review the PC approach using its motivation as the information theoretic formulation of bounded rationality for multi-agent systems. It is then compared with GA's on a diverse set of problems. To handle high dimensional surfaces, in the PC method investigated here p is restricted to a product distribution. Each distribution in that product is controlled by a separate agent. The test functions were selected for their difficulty using either traditional gradient descent or genetic algorithms. On those functions the PC-based approach significantly outperforms traditional GA's in both rate of descent, trapping in false minima, and long term optimization.

Persuasion Model and Its Evaluation Based on Positive Change Degree of Agent Emotion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jinghua, Wu; Wenguang, Lu; Hailiang, Meng

For it can meet needs of negotiation among organizations take place in different time and place, and for it can make its course more rationality and result more ideal, persuasion based on agent can improve cooperation among organizations well. Integrated emotion change in agent persuasion can further bring agent advantage of artificial intelligence into play. Emotion of agent persuasion is classified, and the concept of positive change degree is given. Based on this, persuasion model based on positive change degree of agent emotion is constructed, which is explained clearly through an example. Finally, the method of relative evaluation is given, which is also verified through a calculation example.

A socio-historical approach to policy analysis: the case of the Brazilian Workers' Food Policy.

PubMed

Costa-Souza, Jamacy; Vieira-da-Silva, Ligia Maria; Pinell, Patrice

2018-02-05

Policy analyses based on traditional or structuralist definitions of the state are important, but they have some limitations for explaining processes related to policymaking, implementation, and results. Bourdieusian sociology links the analysis to objective and subjective dimensions of social practices and can help elucidate these phenomena. This article provides such empirical evidence by analyzing the social genesis of a Brazilian policy that currently serves 18 million workers and was established by the state in 1976 through the Fiscal Incentives Program for Workers' Nutrition (PIFAT/PAT). The study linked the analysis of the trajectory of social agents involved in the policy's formulation to the historical conditions that allowed the policy to exist in the first place. Although the literature treats the policy as a workers' food program (PAT), the current study showed that it actually represented a new model for paying financial subsidies to companies that provided food to their employees, meanwhile upgrading the commercial market for collective meals. The study further showed that the program emerged as an administrative policy, but linked to economic agents. The program became a specific social space in which issues related to workers' nutrition became secondary, but useful for disguising what had been an explicit side of its genesis, namely its essentially fiscal nature.

Integration agent-based models and GIS as a virtual urban dynamic laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Peng; Liu, Miaolong

2007-06-01

Based on the Agent-based Model and spatial data model, a tight-coupling integrating method of GIS and Agent-based Model (ABM) is to be discussed in this paper. The use of object-orientation for both spatial data and spatial process models facilitates their integration, which can allow exploration and explanation of spatial-temporal phenomena such as urban dynamic. In order to better understand how tight coupling might proceed and to evaluate the possible functional and efficiency gains from such a tight coupling, the agent-based model and spatial data model are discussed, and then the relationships affecting spatial data model and agent-based process models interaction. After that, a realistic crowd flow simulation experiment is presented. Using some tools provided by general GIS systems and a few specific programming languages, a new software system integrating GIS and MAS as a virtual laboratory applicable for simulating pedestrian flows in a crowd activity centre has been developed successfully. Under the environment supported by the software system, as an applicable case, a dynamic evolution process of the pedestrian's flows (dispersed process for the spectators) in a crowds' activity center - The Shanghai Stadium has been simulated successfully. At the end of the paper, some new research problems have been pointed out for the future.

Combining human and machine intelligence to derive agents' behavioral rules for groundwater irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yao; Quinn, Christopher J.; Cai, Ximing; Garfinkle, Noah W.

2017-11-01

For agent-based modeling, the major challenges in deriving agents' behavioral rules arise from agents' bounded rationality and data scarcity. This study proposes a "gray box" approach to address the challenge by incorporating expert domain knowledge (i.e., human intelligence) with machine learning techniques (i.e., machine intelligence). Specifically, we propose using directed information graph (DIG), boosted regression trees (BRT), and domain knowledge to infer causal factors and identify behavioral rules from data. A case study is conducted to investigate farmers' pumping behavior in the Midwest, U.S.A. Results show that four factors identified by the DIG algorithm- corn price, underlying groundwater level, monthly mean temperature and precipitation- have main causal influences on agents' decisions on monthly groundwater irrigation depth. The agent-based model is then developed based on the behavioral rules represented by three DIGs and modeled by BRTs, and coupled with a physically-based groundwater model to investigate the impacts of agents' pumping behavior on the underlying groundwater system in the context of coupled human and environmental systems.

Spin-orbit splitted excited states using explicitly-correlated equation-of-motion coupled-cluster singles and doubles eigenvectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bokhan, Denis; Trubnikov, Dmitrii N.; Perera, Ajith; Bartlett, Rodney J.

2018-04-01

An explicitly-correlated method of calculation of excited states with spin-orbit couplings, has been formulated and implemented. Developed approach utilizes left and right eigenvectors of equation-of-motion coupled-cluster model, which is based on the linearly approximated explicitly correlated coupled-cluster singles and doubles [CCSD(F12)] method. The spin-orbit interactions are introduced by using the spin-orbit mean field (SOMF) approximation of the Breit-Pauli Hamiltonian. Numerical tests for several atoms and molecules show good agreement between explicitly-correlated results and the corresponding values, calculated in complete basis set limit (CBS); the highly-accurate excitation energies can be obtained already at triple- ζ level.

Agent oriented programming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shoham, Yoav

1994-01-01

The goal of our research is a methodology for creating robust software in distributed and dynamic environments. The approach taken is to endow software objects with explicit information about one another, to have them interact through a commitment mechanism, and to equip them with a speech-acty communication language. System-level applications include software interoperation and compositionality. A government application of specific interest is an infrastructure for coordination among multiple planners. Daily activity applications include personal software assistants, such as programmable email, scheduling, and new group agents. Research topics include definition of mental state of agents, design of agent languages as well as interpreters for those languages, and mechanisms for coordination within agent societies such as artificial social laws and conventions.

Computational neuroanatomy: ontology-based representation of neural components and connectivity.

PubMed

Rubin, Daniel L; Talos, Ion-Florin; Halle, Michael; Musen, Mark A; Kikinis, Ron

2009-02-05

A critical challenge in neuroscience is organizing, managing, and accessing the explosion in neuroscientific knowledge, particularly anatomic knowledge. We believe that explicit knowledge-based approaches to make neuroscientific knowledge computationally accessible will be helpful in tackling this challenge and will enable a variety of applications exploiting this knowledge, such as surgical planning. We developed ontology-based models of neuroanatomy to enable symbolic lookup, logical inference and mathematical modeling of neural systems. We built a prototype model of the motor system that integrates descriptive anatomic and qualitative functional neuroanatomical knowledge. In addition to modeling normal neuroanatomy, our approach provides an explicit representation of abnormal neural connectivity in disease states, such as common movement disorders. The ontology-based representation encodes both structural and functional aspects of neuroanatomy. The ontology-based models can be evaluated computationally, enabling development of automated computer reasoning applications. Neuroanatomical knowledge can be represented in machine-accessible format using ontologies. Computational neuroanatomical approaches such as described in this work could become a key tool in translational informatics, leading to decision support applications that inform and guide surgical planning and personalized care for neurological disease in the future.

Agent-based models of cellular systems.

PubMed

Cannata, Nicola; Corradini, Flavio; Merelli, Emanuela; Tesei, Luca

2013-01-01

Software agents are particularly suitable for engineering models and simulations of cellular systems. In a very natural and intuitive manner, individual software components are therein delegated to reproduce "in silico" the behavior of individual components of alive systems at a given level of resolution. Individuals' actions and interactions among individuals allow complex collective behavior to emerge. In this chapter we first introduce the readers to software agents and multi-agent systems, reviewing the evolution of agent-based modeling of biomolecular systems in the last decade. We then describe the main tools, platforms, and methodologies available for programming societies of agents, possibly profiting also of toolkits that do not require advanced programming skills.

Modeling wildlife populations with HexSim

EPA Science Inventory

HexSim is a framework for constructing spatially-explicit, individual-based computer models designed for simulating terrestrial wildlife population dynamics and interactions. HexSim is useful for a broad set of modeling applications including population viability analysis for on...

GPGPU-based explicit finite element computations for applications in biomechanics: the performance of material models, element technologies, and hardware generations.

PubMed

Strbac, V; Pierce, D M; Vander Sloten, J; Famaey, N

2017-12-01

Finite element (FE) simulations are increasingly valuable in assessing and improving the performance of biomedical devices and procedures. Due to high computational demands such simulations may become difficult or even infeasible, especially when considering nearly incompressible and anisotropic material models prevalent in analyses of soft tissues. Implementations of GPGPU-based explicit FEs predominantly cover isotropic materials, e.g. the neo-Hookean model. To elucidate the computational expense of anisotropic materials, we implement the Gasser-Ogden-Holzapfel dispersed, fiber-reinforced model and compare solution times against the neo-Hookean model. Implementations of GPGPU-based explicit FEs conventionally rely on single-point (under) integration. To elucidate the expense of full and selective-reduced integration (more reliable) we implement both and compare corresponding solution times against those generated using underintegration. To better understand the advancement of hardware, we compare results generated using representative Nvidia GPGPUs from three recent generations: Fermi (C2075), Kepler (K20c), and Maxwell (GTX980). We explore scaling by solving the same boundary value problem (an extension-inflation test on a segment of human aorta) with progressively larger FE meshes. Our results demonstrate substantial improvements in simulation speeds relative to two benchmark FE codes (up to 300[Formula: see text] while maintaining accuracy), and thus open many avenues to novel applications in biomechanics and medicine.

CDFISH: an individual-based, spatially-explicit, landscape genetics simulator for aquatic species in complex riverscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erin L. Landguth,; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Luikart, Gordon

2012-01-01

We introduce Cost Distance FISHeries (CDFISH), a simulator of population genetics and connectivity in complex riverscapes for a wide range of environmental scenarios of aquatic organisms. The spatially-explicit program implements individual-based genetic modeling with Mendelian inheritance and k-allele mutation on a riverscape with resistance to movement. The program simulates individuals in subpopulations through time employing user-defined functions of individual migration, reproduction, mortality, and dispersal through straying on a continuous resistance surface.

Evaluating Water Demand Using Agent-Based Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowry, T. S.

2004-12-01

The supply and demand of water resources are functions of complex, inter-related systems including hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy. To assess the safety and sustainability of water resources, planners often rely on complex numerical models that relate some or all of these systems using mathematical abstractions. The accuracy of these models relies on how well the abstractions capture the true nature of the systems interactions. Typically, these abstractions are based on analyses of observations and/or experiments that account only for the statistical mean behavior of each system. This limits the approach in two important ways: 1) It cannot capture cross-system disruptive events, such as major drought, significant policy change, or terrorist attack, and 2) it cannot resolve sub-system level responses. To overcome these limitations, we are developing an agent-based water resources model that includes the systems of hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy, to examine water demand during normal and extraordinary conditions. Agent-based modeling (ABM) develops functional relationships between systems by modeling the interaction between individuals (agents), who behave according to a probabilistic set of rules. ABM is a "bottom-up" modeling approach in that it defines macro-system behavior by modeling the micro-behavior of individual agents. While each agent's behavior is often simple and predictable, the aggregate behavior of all agents in each system can be complex, unpredictable, and different than behaviors observed in mean-behavior models. Furthermore, the ABM approach creates a virtual laboratory where the effects of policy changes and/or extraordinary events can be simulated. Our model, which is based on the demographics and hydrology of the Middle Rio Grande Basin in the state of New Mexico, includes agent groups of residential, agricultural, and industrial users. Each agent within each group determines its water usage based on its own condition and the condition of the world around it. For example, residential agents can make decisions to convert to or from xeriscaping and/or low-flow appliances based on policy implementation, economic status, weather, and climatic conditions. Agricultural agents may vary their usage by making decisions on crop distribution and irrigation design. Preliminary results show that water usage can be highly irrational under certain conditions. Results also identify sub-sectors within each group that have the highest influence on ensemble group behavior, providing a means for policy makers to target their efforts. Finally, the model is able to predict the impact of low-probability, high-impact events such as catastrophic denial of service due to natural and/or man-made events.

B-tree search reinforcement learning for model based intelligent agent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhuvaneswari, S.; Vignashwaran, R.

2013-03-01

Agents trained by learning techniques provide a powerful approximation of active solutions for naive approaches. In this study using B - Trees implying reinforced learning the data search for information retrieval is moderated to achieve accuracy with minimum search time. The impact of variables and tactics applied in training are determined using reinforcement learning. Agents based on these techniques perform satisfactory baseline and act as finite agents based on the predetermined model against competitors from the course.

Event-Triggered Distributed Average Consensus Over Directed Digital Networks With Limited Communication Bandwidth.

PubMed

Li, Huaqing; Chen, Guo; Huang, Tingwen; Dong, Zhaoyang; Zhu, Wei; Gao, Lan

2016-12-01

In this paper, we consider the event-triggered distributed average-consensus of discrete-time first-order multiagent systems with limited communication data rate and general directed network topology. In the framework of digital communication network, each agent has a real-valued state but can only exchange finite-bit binary symbolic data sequence with its neighborhood agents at each time step due to the digital communication channels with energy constraints. Novel event-triggered dynamic encoder and decoder for each agent are designed, based on which a distributed control algorithm is proposed. A scheme that selects the number of channel quantization level (number of bits) at each time step is developed, under which all the quantizers in the network are never saturated. The convergence rate of consensus is explicitly characterized, which is related to the scale of network, the maximum degree of nodes, the network structure, the scaling function, the quantization interval, the initial states of agents, the control gain and the event gain. It is also found that under the designed event-triggered protocol, by selecting suitable parameters, for any directed digital network containing a spanning tree, the distributed average consensus can be always achieved with an exponential convergence rate based on merely one bit information exchange between each pair of adjacent agents at each time step. Two simulation examples are provided to illustrate the feasibility of presented protocol and the correctness of the theoretical results.

Simulating natural selection in landscape genetics

Treesearch

E. L. Landguth; S. A. Cushman; N. Johnson

2012-01-01

Linking landscape effects to key evolutionary processes through individual organism movement and natural selection is essential to provide a foundation for evolutionary landscape genetics. Of particular importance is determining how spatially- explicit, individual-based models differ from classic population genetics and evolutionary ecology models based on ideal...

On the Leaky Math Pipeline: Comparing Implicit Math-Gender Stereotypes and Math Withdrawal in Female and Male Children and Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steffens, Melanie C.; Jelenec, Petra; Noack, Peter

2010-01-01

Many models assume that habitual human behavior is guided by spontaneous, automatic, or implicit processes rather than by deliberate, rule-based, or explicit processes. Thus, math-ability self-concepts and math performance could be related to implicit math-gender stereotypes in addition to explicit stereotypes. Two studies assessed at what age…

Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; D. R. Brillinger; R. E. Burgan; John Benoit

2004-01-01

We present a probability-based model for estimating fire risk. Risk is defined using three probabilities: the probability of fire occurrence; the conditional probability of a large fire given ignition; and the unconditional probability of a large fire. The model is based on grouped data at the 1 km²-day cell level. We fit a spatially and temporally explicit non-...

Understanding Group/Party Affiliation Using Social Networks and Agent-Based Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, Kenyth

2012-01-01

The dynamics of group affiliation and group dispersion is a concept that is most often studied in order for political candidates to better understand the most efficient way to conduct their campaigns. While political campaigning in the United States is a very hot topic that most politicians analyze and study, the concept of group/party affiliation presents its own area of study that producers very interesting results. One tool for examining party affiliation on a large scale is agent-based modeling (ABM), a paradigm in the modeling and simulation (M&S) field perfectly suited for aggregating individual behaviors to observe large swaths of a population. For this study agent based modeling was used in order to look at a community of agents and determine what factors can affect the group/party affiliation patterns that are present. In the agent-based model that was used for this experiment many factors were present but two main factors were used to determine the results. The results of this study show that it is possible to use agent-based modeling to explore group/party affiliation and construct a model that can mimic real world events. More importantly, the model in the study allows for the results found in a smaller community to be translated into larger experiments to determine if the results will remain present on a much larger scale.

Review of the systems biology of the immune system using agent-based models.

PubMed

Shinde, Snehal B; Kurhekar, Manish P

2018-06-01

The immune system is an inherent protection system in vertebrate animals including human beings that exhibit properties such as self-organisation, self-adaptation, learning, and recognition. It interacts with the other allied systems such as the gut and lymph nodes. There is a need for immune system modelling to know about its complex internal mechanism, to understand how it maintains the homoeostasis, and how it interacts with the other systems. There are two types of modelling techniques used for the simulation of features of the immune system: equation-based modelling (EBM) and agent-based modelling. Owing to certain shortcomings of the EBM, agent-based modelling techniques are being widely used. This technique provides various predictions for disease causes and treatments; it also helps in hypothesis verification. This study presents a review of agent-based modelling of the immune system and its interactions with the gut and lymph nodes. The authors also review the modelling of immune system interactions during tuberculosis and cancer. In addition, they also outline the future research directions for the immune system simulation through agent-based techniques such as the effects of stress on the immune system, evolution of the immune system, and identification of the parameters for a healthy immune system.

Chronic Heart Failure Follow-up Management Based on Agent Technology.

PubMed

Mohammadzadeh, Niloofar; Safdari, Reza

2015-10-01

Monitoring heart failure patients through continues assessment of sign and symptoms by information technology tools lead to large reduction in re-hospitalization. Agent technology is one of the strongest artificial intelligence areas; therefore, it can be expected to facilitate, accelerate, and improve health services especially in home care and telemedicine. The aim of this article is to provide an agent-based model for chronic heart failure (CHF) follow-up management. This research was performed in 2013-2014 to determine appropriate scenarios and the data required to monitor and follow-up CHF patients, and then an agent-based model was designed. Agents in the proposed model perform the following tasks: medical data access, communication with other agents of the framework and intelligent data analysis, including medical data processing, reasoning, negotiation for decision-making, and learning capabilities. The proposed multi-agent system has ability to learn and thus improve itself. Implementation of this model with more and various interval times at a broader level could achieve better results. The proposed multi-agent system is no substitute for cardiologists, but it could assist them in decision-making.

Automation based on knowledge modeling theory and its applications in engine diagnostic systems using Space Shuttle Main Engine vibrational data. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Jonnathan H.

1995-01-01

Humans can perform many complicated tasks without explicit rules. This inherent and advantageous capability becomes a hurdle when a task is to be automated. Modern computers and numerical calculations require explicit rules and discrete numerical values. In order to bridge the gap between human knowledge and automating tools, a knowledge model is proposed. Knowledge modeling techniques are discussed and utilized to automate a labor and time intensive task of detecting anomalous bearing wear patterns in the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) High Pressure Oxygen Turbopump (HPOTP).

Representing Micro-Macro Linkages by Actor-Based Dynamic Network Models

PubMed Central

Snijders, Tom A.B.; Steglich, Christian E.G.

2014-01-01

Stochastic actor-based models for network dynamics have the primary aim of statistical inference about processes of network change, but may be regarded as a kind of agent-based models. Similar to many other agent-based models, they are based on local rules for actor behavior. Different from many other agent-based models, by including elements of generalized linear statistical models they aim to be realistic detailed representations of network dynamics in empirical data sets. Statistical parallels to micro-macro considerations can be found in the estimation of parameters determining local actor behavior from empirical data, and the assessment of goodness of fit from the correspondence with network-level descriptives. This article studies several network-level consequences of dynamic actor-based models applied to represent cross-sectional network data. Two examples illustrate how network-level characteristics can be obtained as emergent features implied by micro-specifications of actor-based models. PMID:25960578

Scoping Planning Agents With Shared Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bedrax-Weiss, Tania; Frank, Jeremy D.; Jonsson, Ari K.; McGann, Conor

2003-01-01

In this paper we provide a formal framework to define the scope of planning agents based on a single declarative model. Having multiple agents sharing a single model provides numerous advantages that lead to reduced development costs and increase reliability of the system. We formally define planning in terms of extensions of an initial partial plan, and a set of flaws that make the plan unacceptable. A Flaw Filter (FF) allows us to identify those flaws relevant to an agent. Flaw filters motivate the Plan Identification Function (PIF), which specifies when an agent is is ready hand control to another agent for further work. PIFs define a set of plan extensions that can be generated from a model and a plan request. FFs and PIFs can be used to define the scope of agents without changing the model. We describe an implementation of PIFsand FFswithin the context of EUROPA, a constraint-based planning architecture, and show how it can be used to easily design many different agents.

An Agent-Based Data Mining System for Ontology Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadzic, Maja; Dillon, Darshan

We have developed an evidence-based mental health ontological model that represents mental health in multiple dimensions. The ongoing addition of new mental health knowledge requires a continual update of the Mental Health Ontology. In this paper, we describe how the ontology evolution can be realized using a multi-agent system in combination with data mining algorithms. We use the TICSA methodology to design this multi-agent system which is composed of four different types of agents: Information agent, Data Warehouse agent, Data Mining agents and Ontology agent. We use UML 2.1 sequence diagrams to model the collaborative nature of the agents and a UML 2.1 composite structure diagram to model the structure of individual agents. The Mental Heath Ontology has the potential to underpin various mental health research experiments of a collaborative nature which are greatly needed in times of increasing mental distress and illness.

Derivation of an Explicit Form of the Percolation-Based Effective-Medium Approximation for Thermal Conductivity of Partially Saturated Soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadeghi, Morteza; Ghanbarian, Behzad; Horton, Robert

2018-02-01

Thermal conductivity is an essential component in multiphysics models and coupled simulation of heat transfer, fluid flow, and solute transport in porous media. In the literature, various empirical, semiempirical, and physical models were developed for thermal conductivity and its estimation in partially saturated soils. Recently, Ghanbarian and Daigle (GD) proposed a theoretical model, using the percolation-based effective-medium approximation, whose parameters are physically meaningful. The original GD model implicitly formulates thermal conductivity λ as a function of volumetric water content θ. For the sake of computational efficiency in numerical calculations, in this study, we derive an explicit λ(θ) form of the GD model. We also demonstrate that some well-known empirical models, e.g., Chung-Horton, widely applied in the HYDRUS model, as well as mixing models are special cases of the GD model under specific circumstances. Comparison with experiments indicates that the GD model can accurately estimate soil thermal conductivity.

Simulating ectomycorrhiza in boreal forests: implementing ectomycorrhizal fungi model MYCOFON in CoupModel (v5)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Hongxing; Meyer, Astrid; Jansson, Per-Erik; Svensson, Magnus; Rütting, Tobias; Klemedtsson, Leif

2018-02-01

The symbiosis between plants and Ectomycorrhizal fungi (ECM) is shown to considerably influence the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes between the soil, rhizosphere, and plants in boreal forest ecosystems. However, ECM are either neglected or presented as an implicit, undynamic term in most ecosystem models, which can potentially reduce the predictive power of models.

In order to investigate the necessity of an explicit consideration of ECM in ecosystem models, we implement the previously developed MYCOFON model into a detailed process-based, soil-plant-atmosphere model, Coup-MYCOFON, which explicitly describes the C and N fluxes between ECM and roots. This new Coup-MYCOFON model approach (ECM explicit) is compared with two simpler model approaches: one containing ECM implicitly as a dynamic uptake of organic N considering the plant roots to represent the ECM (ECM implicit), and the other a static N approach in which plant growth is limited to a fixed N level (nonlim). Parameter uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian calibration in which the model outputs are constrained to current forest growth and soil C / N ratio for four forest sites along a climate and N deposition gradient in Sweden and simulated over a 100-year period.

The nonlim approach could not describe the soil C / N ratio due to large overestimation of soil N sequestration but simulate the forest growth reasonably well. The ECM implicit and explicit approaches both describe the soil C / N ratio well but slightly underestimate the forest growth. The implicit approach simulated lower litter production and soil respiration than the explicit approach. The ECM explicit Coup-MYCOFON model provides a more detailed description of internal ecosystem fluxes and feedbacks of C and N between plants, soil, and ECM. Our modeling highlights the need to incorporate ECM and organic N uptake into ecosystem models, and the nonlim approach is not recommended for future long-term soil C and N predictions. We also provide a key set of posterior fungal parameters that can be further investigated and evaluated in future ECM studies.

The explicit and implicit dance in psychoanalytic change.

PubMed

Fosshage, James L

2004-02-01

How the implicit/non-declarative and explicit/declarative cognitive domains interact is centrally important in the consideration of effecting change within the psychoanalytic arena. Stern et al. (1998) declare that long-lasting change occurs in the domain of implicit relational knowledge. In the view of this author, the implicit and explicit domains are intricately intertwined in an interactive dance within a psychoanalytic process. The author views that a spirit of inquiry (Lichtenberg, Lachmann & Fosshage 2002) serves as the foundation of the psychoanalytic process. Analyst and patient strive to explore, understand and communicate and, thereby, create a 'spirit' of interaction that contributes, through gradual incremental learning, to new implicit relational knowledge. This spirit, as part of the implicit relational interaction, is a cornerstone of the analytic relationship. The 'inquiry' more directly brings explicit/declarative processing to the foreground in the joint attempt to explore and understand. The spirit of inquiry in the psychoanalytic arena highlights both the autobiographical scenarios of the explicit memory system and the mental models of the implicit memory system as each contributes to a sense of self, other, and self with other. This process facilitates the extrication and suspension of the old models, so that new models based on current relational experience can be gradually integrated into both memory systems for lasting change.

On the solution of evolution equations based on multigrid and explicit iterative methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhukov, V. T.; Novikova, N. D.; Feodoritova, O. B.

2015-08-01

Two schemes for solving initial-boundary value problems for three-dimensional parabolic equations are studied. One is implicit and is solved using the multigrid method, while the other is explicit iterative and is based on optimal properties of the Chebyshev polynomials. In the explicit iterative scheme, the number of iteration steps and the iteration parameters are chosen as based on the approximation and stability conditions, rather than on the optimization of iteration convergence to the solution of the implicit scheme. The features of the multigrid scheme include the implementation of the intergrid transfer operators for the case of discontinuous coefficients in the equation and the adaptation of the smoothing procedure to the spectrum of the difference operators. The results produced by these schemes as applied to model problems with anisotropic discontinuous coefficients are compared.

Explicit Pharmacokinetic Modeling: Tools for Documentation, Verification, and Portability

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative estimates of tissue dosimetry of environmental chemicals due to multiple exposure pathways require the use of complex mathematical models, such as physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. The process of translating the abstract mathematics of a PBPK mode...

Strategies to Enhance Online Learning Teams. Team Assessment and Diagnostics Instrument and Agent-based Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-08-12

Strategies to Enhance Online Learning Teams Team Assessment and Diagnostics Instrument and Agent-based Modeling Tristan E. Johnson, Ph.D. Learning ...REPORT DATE AUG 2010 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2010 to 00-00-2010 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Strategies to Enhance Online Learning ...TeamsTeam Strategies to Enhance Online Learning Teams: Team Assessment and Diagnostics Instrument and Agent-based Modeling 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT

Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems

PubMed Central

Bonabeau, Eric

2002-01-01

Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation modeling technique that has seen a number of applications in the last few years, including applications to real-world business problems. After the basic principles of agent-based simulation are briefly introduced, its four areas of application are discussed by using real-world applications: flow simulation, organizational simulation, market simulation, and diffusion simulation. For each category, one or several business applications are described and analyzed. PMID:12011407

Agent based modeling of the coevolution of hostility and pacifism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalmagro, Fermin; Jimenez, Juan

2015-01-01

We propose a model based on a population of agents whose states represent either hostile or peaceful behavior. Randomly selected pairs of agents interact according to a variation of the Prisoners Dilemma game, and the probabilities that the agents behave aggressively or not are constantly updated by the model so that the agents that remain in the game are those with the highest fitness. We show that the population of agents oscillate between generalized conflict and global peace, without either reaching a stable state. We then use this model to explain some of the emergent behaviors in collective conflicts, by comparing the simulated results with empirical data obtained from social systems. In particular, using public data reports we show how the model precisely reproduces interesting quantitative characteristics of diverse types of armed conflicts, public protests, riots and strikes.

Agent-based Modeling with MATSim for Hazards Evacuation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, J. M.; Ng, P.; Henry, K.; Peters, J.; Wood, N. J.

2015-12-01

Hazard evacuation planning requires robust modeling tools and techniques, such as least cost distance or agent-based modeling, to gain an understanding of a community's potential to reach safety before event (e.g. tsunami) arrival. Least cost distance modeling provides a static view of the evacuation landscape with an estimate of travel times to safety from each location in the hazard space. With this information, practitioners can assess a community's overall ability for timely evacuation. More information may be needed if evacuee congestion creates bottlenecks in the flow patterns. Dynamic movement patterns are best explored with agent-based models that simulate movement of and interaction between individual agents as evacuees through the hazard space, reacting to potential congestion areas along the evacuation route. The multi-agent transport simulation model MATSim is an agent-based modeling framework that can be applied to hazard evacuation planning. Developed jointly by universities in Switzerland and Germany, MATSim is open-source software written in Java and freely available for modification or enhancement. We successfully used MATSim to illustrate tsunami evacuation challenges in two island communities in California, USA, that are impacted by limited escape routes. However, working with MATSim's data preparation, simulation, and visualization modules in an integrated development environment requires a significant investment of time to develop the software expertise to link the modules and run a simulation. To facilitate our evacuation research, we packaged the MATSim modules into a single application tailored to the needs of the hazards community. By exposing the modeling parameters of interest to researchers in an intuitive user interface and hiding the software complexities, we bring agent-based modeling closer to practitioners and provide access to the powerful visual and analytic information that this modeling can provide.

Urban Form Energy Use and Emissions in China: Preliminary Findings and Model Proof of Concept

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aden, Nathaniel; Qin, Yining; Fridley, David

Urbanization is reshaping China's economy, society, and energy system. Between 1990 and 2008 China added more than 300 million new urban residents, bringing the total urbanization rate to 46%. The ongoing population shift is spurring energy demand for new construction, as well as additional residential use with the replacement of rural biomass by urban commercial energy services. This project developed a modeling tool to quantify the full energy consequences of a particular form of urban residential development in order to identify energy- and carbon-efficient modes of neighborhood-level development and help mitigate resource and environmental implications of swelling cities. LBNL developedmore » an integrated modeling tool that combines process-based lifecycle assessment with agent-based building operational energy use, personal transport, and consumption modeling. The lifecycle assessment approach was used to quantify energy and carbon emissions embodied in building materials production, construction, maintenance, and demolition. To provide more comprehensive analysis, LBNL developed an agent-based model as described below. The model was applied to LuJing, a residential development in Jinan, Shandong Province, to provide a case study and model proof of concept. This study produced results data that are unique by virtue of their scale, scope and type. Whereas most existing literature focuses on building-, city-, or national-level analysis, this study covers multi-building neighborhood-scale development. Likewise, while most existing studies focus exclusively on building operational energy use, this study also includes embodied energy related to personal consumption and buildings. Within the boundaries of this analysis, food is the single largest category of the building energy footprint, accounting for 23% of the total. On a policy level, the LCA approach can be useful for quantifying the energy and environmental benefits of longer average building lifespans. In addition to prospective analysis for standards and certification, urban form modeling can also be useful in calculating or verifying ex post facto, bottom-up carbon emissions inventories. Emissions inventories provide a benchmark for evaluating future outcomes and scenarios as well as an empirical basis for valuing low-carbon technologies. By highlighting the embodied energy and emissions of building materials, the LCA approach can also be used to identify the most intensive aspects of industrial production and the supply chain. The agent based modeling aspect of the model can be useful for understanding how policy incentives can impact individual behavior and the aggregate effects thereof. The most useful elaboration of the urban form assessment model would be to further generalize it for comparative analysis. Scenario analysis could be used for benchmarking and identification of policy priorities. If the model is to be used for inventories, it is important to disaggregate the energy use data for more accurate emissions modeling. Depending on the policy integration of the model, it may be useful to incorporate occupancy data for per-capita results. On the question of density and efficiency, it may also be useful to integrate a more explicit spatial scaling mechanism for modeling neighborhood and city-level energy use and emissions, i.e. to account for scaling effects in public infrastructure and transportation.« less

Formalizing the Role of Agent-Based Modeling in Causal Inference and Epidemiology

PubMed Central

Marshall, Brandon D. L.; Galea, Sandro

2015-01-01

Calls for the adoption of complex systems approaches, including agent-based modeling, in the field of epidemiology have largely centered on the potential for such methods to examine complex disease etiologies, which are characterized by feedback behavior, interference, threshold dynamics, and multiple interacting causal effects. However, considerable theoretical and practical issues impede the capacity of agent-based methods to examine and evaluate causal effects and thus illuminate new areas for intervention. We build on this work by describing how agent-based models can be used to simulate counterfactual outcomes in the presence of complexity. We show that these models are of particular utility when the hypothesized causal mechanisms exhibit a high degree of interdependence between multiple causal effects and when interference (i.e., one person's exposure affects the outcome of others) is present and of intrinsic scientific interest. Although not without challenges, agent-based modeling (and complex systems methods broadly) represent a promising novel approach to identify and evaluate complex causal effects, and they are thus well suited to complement other modern epidemiologic methods of etiologic inquiry. PMID:25480821

An efficient hydro-mechanical model for coupled multi-porosity and discrete fracture porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xia; Huang, Zhaoqin; Yao, Jun; Li, Yang; Fan, Dongyan; Zhang, Kai

2018-02-01

In this paper, a numerical model is developed for coupled analysis of deforming fractured porous media with multiscale fractures. In this model, the macro-fractures are modeled explicitly by the embedded discrete fracture model, and the supporting effects of fluid and fillings in these fractures are represented explicitly in the geomechanics model. On the other hand, matrix and micro-fractures are modeled by a multi-porosity model, which aims to accurately describe the transient matrix-fracture fluid exchange process. A stabilized extended finite element method scheme is developed based on the polynomial pressure projection technique to address the displacement oscillation along macro-fracture boundaries. After that, the mixed space discretization and modified fixed stress sequential implicit methods based on non-matching grids are applied to solve the coupling model. Finally, we demonstrate the accuracy and application of the proposed method to capture the coupled hydro-mechanical impacts of multiscale fractures on fractured porous media.

Modeling the Spatial Dynamics of Regional Land Use: The CLUE-S Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verburg, Peter H.; Soepboer, Welmoed; Veldkamp, A.; Limpiada, Ramil; Espaldon, Victoria; Mastura, Sharifah S. A.

2002-09-01

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.

Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model.

PubMed

Verburg, Peter H; Soepboer, Welmoed; Veldkamp, A; Limpiada, Ramil; Espaldon, Victoria; Mastura, Sharifah S A

2002-09-01

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.

An equilibrium-point model for fast, single-joint movement: I. Emergence of strategy-dependent EMG patterns.

PubMed

Latash, M L; Gottlieb, G L

1991-09-01

We describe a model for the regulation of fast, single-joint movements, based on the equilibrium-point hypothesis. Limb movement follows constant rate shifts of independently regulated neuromuscular variables. The independently regulated variables are tentatively identified as thresholds of a length sensitive reflex for each of the participating muscles. We use the model to predict EMG patterns associated with changes in the conditions of movement execution, specifically, changes in movement times, velocities, amplitudes, and moments of limb inertia. The approach provides a theoretical neural framework for the dual-strategy hypothesis, which considers certain movements to be results of one of two basic, speed-sensitive or speed-insensitive strategies. This model is advanced as an alternative to pattern-imposing models based on explicit regulation of timing and amplitudes of signals that are explicitly manifest in the EMG patterns.

Epidemic modeling with discrete-space scheduled walkers: extensions and research opportunities

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background This exploratory paper outlines an epidemic simulator built on an agent-based, data-driven model of the spread of a disease within an urban environment. An intent of the model is to provide insight into how a disease may reach a tipping point, spreading to an epidemic of uncontrollable proportions. Methods As a complement to analytical methods, simulation is arguably an effective means of gaining a better understanding of system-level disease dynamics within a population and offers greater utility in its modeling capabilities. Our investigation is based on this conjecture, supported by data-driven models that are reasonable, realistic and practical, in an attempt to demonstrate their efficacy in studying system-wide epidemic phenomena. An agent-based model (ABM) offers considerable flexibility in extending the study of the phenomena before, during and after an outbreak or catastrophe. Results An agent-based model was developed based on a paradigm of a 'discrete-space scheduled walker' (DSSW), modeling a medium-sized North American City of 650,000 discrete agents, built upon a conceptual framework of statistical reasoning (law of large numbers, statistical mechanics) as well as a correct-by-construction bias. The model addresses where, who, when and what elements, corresponding to network topography and agent characteristics, behaviours, and interactions upon that topography. The DSSW-ABM has an interface and associated scripts that allow for a variety of what-if scenarios modeling disease spread throughout the population, and for data to be collected and displayed via a web browser. Conclusion This exploratory paper also presents several research opportunities for exploiting data sources of a non-obvious and disparate nature for the purposes of epidemic modeling. There is an increasing amount and variety of data that will continue to contribute to the accuracy of agent-based models and improve their utility in modeling disease spread. The model developed here is well suited to diseases where there is not a predisposition for contraction within the population. One of the advantages of agent-based modeling is the ability to set up a rare event and develop policy as to how one may mitigate damages arising from it. PMID:19922684

Epidemic modeling with discrete-space scheduled walkers: extensions and research opportunities.

PubMed

Borkowski, Maciej; Podaima, Blake W; McLeod, Robert D

2009-11-18

This exploratory paper outlines an epidemic simulator built on an agent-based, data-driven model of the spread of a disease within an urban environment. An intent of the model is to provide insight into how a disease may reach a tipping point, spreading to an epidemic of uncontrollable proportions. As a complement to analytical methods, simulation is arguably an effective means of gaining a better understanding of system-level disease dynamics within a population and offers greater utility in its modeling capabilities. Our investigation is based on this conjecture, supported by data-driven models that are reasonable, realistic and practical, in an attempt to demonstrate their efficacy in studying system-wide epidemic phenomena. An agent-based model (ABM) offers considerable flexibility in extending the study of the phenomena before, during and after an outbreak or catastrophe. An agent-based model was developed based on a paradigm of a 'discrete-space scheduled walker' (DSSW), modeling a medium-sized North American City of 650,000 discrete agents, built upon a conceptual framework of statistical reasoning (law of large numbers, statistical mechanics) as well as a correct-by-construction bias. The model addresses where, who, when and what elements, corresponding to network topography and agent characteristics, behaviours, and interactions upon that topography. The DSSW-ABM has an interface and associated scripts that allow for a variety of what-if scenarios modeling disease spread throughout the population, and for data to be collected and displayed via a web browser. This exploratory paper also presents several research opportunities for exploiting data sources of a non-obvious and disparate nature for the purposes of epidemic modeling. There is an increasing amount and variety of data that will continue to contribute to the accuracy of agent-based models and improve their utility in modeling disease spread. The model developed here is well suited to diseases where there is not a predisposition for contraction within the population. One of the advantages of agent-based modeling is the ability to set up a rare event and develop policy as to how one may mitigate damages arising from it.

A Novel Machine Learning Classifier Based on a Qualia Modeling Agent (QMA)

DTIC Science & Technology

Information Theory (IIT) of Consciousness , which proposes that the fundamental structural elements of consciousness are qualia. By modeling the...This research develops a computational agent, which overcomes this problem. The Qualia Modeling Agent (QMA) is modeled after two cognitive theories

A Multiagent Based Model for Tactical Planning

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-10-01

Pub. Co. 1985. [10] Castillo, J.M. Aproximación mediante procedimientos de Inteligencia Artificial al planeamiento táctico. Doctoral Thesis...been developed under the same conceptual model and using similar Artificial Intelligence Tools. We use four different stimulus/response agents in...The conceptual model is built on base of the Agents theory. To implement the different agents we have used Artificial Intelligence techniques such

Lapse of time effects on tax evasion in an agent-based econophysics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seibold, Götz; Pickhardt, Michael

2013-05-01

We investigate an inhomogeneous Ising model in the context of tax evasion dynamics where different types of agents are parameterized via local temperatures and magnetic fields. In particular, we analyze the impact of lapse of time effects (i.e. backauditing) and endogenously determined penalty rates on tax compliance. Both features contribute to a microfoundation of agent-based econophysics models of tax evasion.

Activity-Centered Domain Characterization for Problem-Driven Scientific Visualization

PubMed Central

Marai, G. Elisabeta

2018-01-01

Although visualization design models exist in the literature in the form of higher-level methodological frameworks, these models do not present a clear methodological prescription for the domain characterization step. This work presents a framework and end-to-end model for requirements engineering in problem-driven visualization application design. The framework and model are based on the activity-centered design paradigm, which is an enhancement of human-centered design. The proposed activity-centered approach focuses on user tasks and activities, and allows an explicit link between the requirements engineering process with the abstraction stage—and its evaluation—of existing, higher-level visualization design models. In a departure from existing visualization design models, the resulting model: assigns value to a visualization based on user activities; ranks user tasks before the user data; partitions requirements in activity-related capabilities and nonfunctional characteristics and constraints; and explicitly incorporates the user workflows into the requirements process. A further merit of this model is its explicit integration of functional specifications, a concept this work adapts from the software engineering literature, into the visualization design nested model. A quantitative evaluation using two sets of interdisciplinary projects supports the merits of the activity-centered model. The result is a practical roadmap to the domain characterization step of visualization design for problem-driven data visualization. Following this domain characterization model can help remove a number of pitfalls that have been identified multiple times in the visualization design literature. PMID:28866550

Agent-Based Modeling of Growth Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abraham, Ralph

2014-01-01

Growth processes abound in nature, and are frequently the target of modeling exercises in the sciences. In this article we illustrate an agent-based approach to modeling, in the case of a single example from the social sciences: bullying.

From Agents to Continuous Change via Aesthetics: Learning Mechanics with Visual Agent-Based Computational Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sengupta, Pratim; Farris, Amy Voss; Wright, Mason

2012-01-01

Novice learners find motion as a continuous process of change challenging to understand. In this paper, we present a pedagogical approach based on agent-based, visual programming to address this issue. Integrating agent-based programming, in particular, Logo programming, with curricular science has been shown to be challenging in previous research…

Comparing implicit and explicit semantic access of direct and indirect word pairs in schizophrenia to evaluate models of semantic memory.

PubMed

Neill, Erica; Rossell, Susan Lee

2013-02-28

Semantic memory deficits in schizophrenia (SZ) are profound, yet there is no research comparing implicit and explicit semantic processing in the same participant sample. In the current study, both implicit and explicit priming are investigated using direct (LION-TIGER) and indirect (LION-STRIPES; where tiger is not displayed) stimuli comparing SZ to healthy controls. Based on a substantive review (Rossell and Stefanovic, 2007) and meta-analysis (Pomarol-Clotet et al., 2008), it was predicted that SZ would be associated with increased indirect priming implicitly. Further, it was predicted that SZ would be associated with abnormal indirect priming explicitly, replicating earlier work (Assaf et al., 2006). No specific hypotheses were made for implicit direct priming due to the heterogeneity of the literature. It was hypothesised that explicit direct priming would be intact based on the structured nature of this task. The pattern of results suggests (1) intact reaction time (RT) and error performance implicitly in the face of abnormal direct priming and (2) impaired RT and error performance explicitly. This pattern confirms general findings regarding implicit/explicit memory impairments in SZ whilst highlighting the unique pattern of performance specific to semantic priming. Finally, priming performance is discussed in relation to thought disorder and length of illness. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Manipulating Scrip Systems: Sybils and Collusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kash, Ian A.; Friedman, Eric J.; Halpern, Joseph Y.

Game-theoretic analyses of distributed and peer-to-peer systems typically use the Nash equilibrium solution concept, but this explicitly excludes the possibility of strategic behavior involving more than one agent. We examine the effects of two types of strategic behavior involving more than one agent, sybils and collusion, in the context of scrip systems where agents provide each other with service in exchange for scrip. Sybils make an agent more likely to be chosen to provide service, which generally makes it harder for agents without sybils to earn money and decreases social welfare. Surprisingly, in certain circumstances it is possible for sybils to make all agents better off. While collusion is generally bad, in the context of scrip systems it actually tends to make all agents better off, not merely those who collude. These results also provide insight into the effects of allowing agents to advertise and loan money.

Modelling of robotic work cells using agent based-approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sękala, A.; Banaś, W.; Gwiazda, A.; Monica, Z.; Kost, G.; Hryniewicz, P.

2016-08-01

In the case of modern manufacturing systems the requirements, both according the scope and according characteristics of technical procedures are dynamically changing. This results in production system organization inability to keep up with changes in a market demand. Accordingly, there is a need for new design methods, characterized, on the one hand with a high efficiency and on the other with the adequate level of the generated organizational solutions. One of the tools that could be used for this purpose is the concept of agent systems. These systems are the tools of artificial intelligence. They allow assigning to agents the proper domains of procedures and knowledge so that they represent in a self-organizing system of an agent environment, components of a real system. The agent-based system for modelling robotic work cell should be designed taking into consideration many limitations considered with the characteristic of this production unit. It is possible to distinguish some grouped of structural components that constitute such a system. This confirms the structural complexity of a work cell as a specific production system. So it is necessary to develop agents depicting various aspects of the work cell structure. The main groups of agents that are used to model a robotic work cell should at least include next pattern representatives: machine tool agents, auxiliary equipment agents, robots agents, transport equipment agents, organizational agents as well as data and knowledge bases agents. In this way it is possible to create the holarchy of the agent-based system.

Constant pH molecular dynamics of proteins in explicit solvent with proton tautomerism.

PubMed

Goh, Garrett B; Hulbert, Benjamin S; Zhou, Huiqing; Brooks, Charles L

2014-07-01

pH is a ubiquitous regulator of biological activity, including protein-folding, protein-protein interactions, and enzymatic activity. Existing constant pH molecular dynamics (CPHMD) models that were developed to address questions related to the pH-dependent properties of proteins are largely based on implicit solvent models. However, implicit solvent models are known to underestimate the desolvation energy of buried charged residues, increasing the error associated with predictions that involve internal ionizable residue that are important in processes like hydrogen transport and electron transfer. Furthermore, discrete water and ions cannot be modeled in implicit solvent, which are important in systems like membrane proteins and ion channels. We report on an explicit solvent constant pH molecular dynamics framework based on multi-site λ-dynamics (CPHMD(MSλD)). In the CPHMD(MSλD) framework, we performed seamless alchemical transitions between protonation and tautomeric states using multi-site λ-dynamics, and designed novel biasing potentials to ensure that the physical end-states are predominantly sampled. We show that explicit solvent CPHMD(MSλD) simulations model realistic pH-dependent properties of proteins such as the Hen-Egg White Lysozyme (HEWL), binding domain of 2-oxoglutarate dehydrogenase (BBL) and N-terminal domain of ribosomal protein L9 (NTL9), and the pKa predictions are in excellent agreement with experimental values, with a RMSE ranging from 0.72 to 0.84 pKa units. With the recent development of the explicit solvent CPHMD(MSλD) framework for nucleic acids, accurate modeling of pH-dependent properties of both major class of biomolecules-proteins and nucleic acids is now possible. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia, South Pacific.

PubMed

Gomez, Céline; Mangeas, Morgan; Curt, Thomas; Ibanez, Thomas; Munzinger, Jérôme; Dumas, Pascal; Jérémy, André; Despinoy, Marc; Hély, Christelle

2015-01-01

Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one-off event model and a multi-event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic-free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one-off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one-off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of biodiversity facing wildfires.

Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia, South Pacific

PubMed Central

Gomez, Céline; Mangeas, Morgan; Curt, Thomas; Ibanez, Thomas; Munzinger, Jérôme; Dumas, Pascal; Jérémy, André; Despinoy, Marc; Hély, Christelle

2015-01-01

Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one-off event model and a multi-event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic-free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one-off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one-off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of biodiversity facing wildfires. PMID:25691965

Geometry of behavioral spaces: A computational approach to analysis and understanding of agent based models and agent behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cenek, Martin; Dahl, Spencer K.

2016-11-01

Systems with non-linear dynamics frequently exhibit emergent system behavior, which is important to find and specify rigorously to understand the nature of the modeled phenomena. Through this analysis, it is possible to characterize phenomena such as how systems assemble or dissipate and what behaviors lead to specific final system configurations. Agent Based Modeling (ABM) is one of the modeling techniques used to study the interaction dynamics between a system's agents and its environment. Although the methodology of ABM construction is well understood and practiced, there are no computational, statistically rigorous, comprehensive tools to evaluate an ABM's execution. Often, a human has to observe an ABM's execution in order to analyze how the ABM functions, identify the emergent processes in the agent's behavior, or study a parameter's effect on the system-wide behavior. This paper introduces a new statistically based framework to automatically analyze agents' behavior, identify common system-wide patterns, and record the probability of agents changing their behavior from one pattern of behavior to another. We use network based techniques to analyze the landscape of common behaviors in an ABM's execution. Finally, we test the proposed framework with a series of experiments featuring increasingly emergent behavior. The proposed framework will allow computational comparison of ABM executions, exploration of a model's parameter configuration space, and identification of the behavioral building blocks in a model's dynamics.

Geometry of behavioral spaces: A computational approach to analysis and understanding of agent based models and agent behaviors.

PubMed

Cenek, Martin; Dahl, Spencer K

2016-11-01

Systems with non-linear dynamics frequently exhibit emergent system behavior, which is important to find and specify rigorously to understand the nature of the modeled phenomena. Through this analysis, it is possible to characterize phenomena such as how systems assemble or dissipate and what behaviors lead to specific final system configurations. Agent Based Modeling (ABM) is one of the modeling techniques used to study the interaction dynamics between a system's agents and its environment. Although the methodology of ABM construction is well understood and practiced, there are no computational, statistically rigorous, comprehensive tools to evaluate an ABM's execution. Often, a human has to observe an ABM's execution in order to analyze how the ABM functions, identify the emergent processes in the agent's behavior, or study a parameter's effect on the system-wide behavior. This paper introduces a new statistically based framework to automatically analyze agents' behavior, identify common system-wide patterns, and record the probability of agents changing their behavior from one pattern of behavior to another. We use network based techniques to analyze the landscape of common behaviors in an ABM's execution. Finally, we test the proposed framework with a series of experiments featuring increasingly emergent behavior. The proposed framework will allow computational comparison of ABM executions, exploration of a model's parameter configuration space, and identification of the behavioral building blocks in a model's dynamics.

Access Control for Cooperation Systems Based on Group Situation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Minsoo; Joshi, James B. D.; Kim, Minkoo

Cooperation systems characterize many emerging environments such as ubiquitous and pervasive systems. Agent based cooperation systems have been proposed in the literature to address challenges of such emerging application environments. A key aspect of such agent based cooperation system is the group situation that changes dynamically and governs the requirements of the cooperation. While individual agent context is important, the overall cooperation behavior is more driven by the group context because of relationships and interactions between agents. Dynamic access control based on group situation is a crucial challenge in such cooperation systems. In this paper we propose a dynamic role based access control model for cooperation systems based on group situation. The model emphasizes capability based agent to role mapping and group situation based permission assignment to allow capturing dynamic access policies that evolve continuously.

The effect of area size and predation on the time to extinction of prairie vole populations. simulation studies via SERDYCA: a Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Model of Rodent Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

2003-11-21

We present a spatially-explicit individual-based computational model of rodent dynamics, customized for the prairie vole species, M. Ochrogaster. The model is based on trophic relationships and represents important features such as territorial competition, mating behavior, density-dependent predation and dispersal out of the modeled spatial region. Vegetation growth and vole fecundity are dependent on climatic components. The results of simulations show that the model correctly predicts the overall temporal dynamics of the population density. Time-series analysis shows a very good match between the periods corresponding to the peak population density frequencies predicted by the model and the ones reported in themore » literature. The model is used to study the relation between persistence, landscape area and predation. We introduce the notions of average time to extinction (ATE) and persistence frequency to quantify persistence. While the ATE decreases with decrease of area, it is a bell-shaped function of the predation level: increasing for 'small' and decreasing for 'large' predation levels.« less

Autonomous Mission Operations for Sensor Webs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Underbrink, A.; Witt, K.; Stanley, J.; Mandl, D.

2008-12-01

We present interim results of a 2005 ROSES AIST project entitled, "Using Intelligent Agents to Form a Sensor Web for Autonomous Mission Operations", or SWAMO. The goal of the SWAMO project is to shift the control of spacecraft missions from a ground-based, centrally controlled architecture to a collaborative, distributed set of intelligent agents. The network of intelligent agents intends to reduce management requirements by utilizing model-based system prediction and autonomic model/agent collaboration. SWAMO agents are distributed throughout the Sensor Web environment, which may include multiple spacecraft, aircraft, ground systems, and ocean systems, as well as manned operations centers. The agents monitor and manage sensor platforms, Earth sensing systems, and Earth sensing models and processes. The SWAMO agents form a Sensor Web of agents via peer-to-peer coordination. Some of the intelligent agents are mobile and able to traverse between on-orbit and ground-based systems. Other agents in the network are responsible for encapsulating system models to perform prediction of future behavior of the modeled subsystems and components to which they are assigned. The software agents use semantic web technologies to enable improved information sharing among the operational entities of the Sensor Web. The semantics include ontological conceptualizations of the Sensor Web environment, plus conceptualizations of the SWAMO agents themselves. By conceptualizations of the agents, we mean knowledge of their state, operational capabilities, current operational capacities, Web Service search and discovery results, agent collaboration rules, etc. The need for ontological conceptualizations over the agents is to enable autonomous and autonomic operations of the Sensor Web. The SWAMO ontology enables automated decision making and responses to the dynamic Sensor Web environment and to end user science requests. The current ontology is compatible with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) Sensor Model Language (SensorML) concepts and structures. The agents are currently deployed on the U.S. Naval Academy MidSTAR-1 satellite and are actively managing the power subsystem on-orbit without the need for human intervention.

A Life-Cycle Model of Human Social Groups Produces a U-Shaped Distribution in Group Size.

PubMed

Salali, Gul Deniz; Whitehouse, Harvey; Hochberg, Michael E

2015-01-01

One of the central puzzles in the study of sociocultural evolution is how and why transitions from small-scale human groups to large-scale, hierarchically more complex ones occurred. Here we develop a spatially explicit agent-based model as a first step towards understanding the ecological dynamics of small and large-scale human groups. By analogy with the interactions between single-celled and multicellular organisms, we build a theory of group lifecycles as an emergent property of single cell demographic and expansion behaviours. We find that once the transition from small-scale to large-scale groups occurs, a few large-scale groups continue expanding while small-scale groups gradually become scarcer, and large-scale groups become larger in size and fewer in number over time. Demographic and expansion behaviours of groups are largely influenced by the distribution and availability of resources. Our results conform to a pattern of human political change in which religions and nation states come to be represented by a few large units and many smaller ones. Future enhancements of the model should include decision-making rules and probabilities of fragmentation for large-scale societies. We suggest that the synthesis of population ecology and social evolution will generate increasingly plausible models of human group dynamics.

A Life-Cycle Model of Human Social Groups Produces a U-Shaped Distribution in Group Size

PubMed Central

Salali, Gul Deniz; Whitehouse, Harvey; Hochberg, Michael E.

2015-01-01

One of the central puzzles in the study of sociocultural evolution is how and why transitions from small-scale human groups to large-scale, hierarchically more complex ones occurred. Here we develop a spatially explicit agent-based model as a first step towards understanding the ecological dynamics of small and large-scale human groups. By analogy with the interactions between single-celled and multicellular organisms, we build a theory of group lifecycles as an emergent property of single cell demographic and expansion behaviours. We find that once the transition from small-scale to large-scale groups occurs, a few large-scale groups continue expanding while small-scale groups gradually become scarcer, and large-scale groups become larger in size and fewer in number over time. Demographic and expansion behaviours of groups are largely influenced by the distribution and availability of resources. Our results conform to a pattern of human political change in which religions and nation states come to be represented by a few large units and many smaller ones. Future enhancements of the model should include decision-making rules and probabilities of fragmentation for large-scale societies. We suggest that the synthesis of population ecology and social evolution will generate increasingly plausible models of human group dynamics. PMID:26381745

Learning Natural Selection in 4th Grade with Multi-Agent-Based Computational Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dickes, Amanda Catherine; Sengupta, Pratim

2013-01-01

In this paper, we investigate how elementary school students develop multi-level explanations of population dynamics in a simple predator-prey ecosystem, through scaffolded interactions with a multi-agent-based computational model (MABM). The term "agent" in an MABM indicates individual computational objects or actors (e.g., cars), and these…

Recent progress in econophysics: Chaos, leverage, and business cycles as revealed by agent-based modeling and human experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xin, Chen; Huang, Ji-Ping

2017-12-01

Agent-based modeling and controlled human experiments serve as two fundamental research methods in the field of econophysics. Agent-based modeling has been in development for over 20 years, but how to design virtual agents with high levels of human-like "intelligence" remains a challenge. On the other hand, experimental econophysics is an emerging field; however, there is a lack of experience and paradigms related to the field. Here, we review some of the most recent research results obtained through the use of these two methods concerning financial problems such as chaos, leverage, and business cycles. We also review the principles behind assessments of agents' intelligence levels, and some relevant designs for human experiments. The main theme of this review is to show that by combining theory, agent-based modeling, and controlled human experiments, one can garner more reliable and credible results on account of a better verification of theory; accordingly, this way, a wider range of economic and financial problems and phenomena can be studied.

Kinetic theory of situated agents applied to pedestrian flow in a corridor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rangel-Huerta, A.; Muñoz-Meléndez, A.

2010-03-01

A situated agent-based model for simulation of pedestrian flow in a corridor is presented. In this model, pedestrians choose their paths freely and make decisions based on local criteria for solving collision conflicts. The crowd consists of multiple walking agents equipped with a function of perception as well as a competitive rule-based strategy that enables pedestrians to reach free access areas. Pedestrians in our model are autonomous entities capable of perceiving and making decisions. They apply socially accepted conventions, such as avoidance rules, as well as individual preferences such as the use of specific exit points, or the execution of eventual comfort turns resulting in spontaneous changes of walking speed. Periodic boundary conditions were considered in order to determine the density-average walking speed, and the density-average activity with respect to specific parameters: comfort angle turn and frequency of angle turn of walking agents. The main contribution of this work is an agent-based model where each pedestrian is represented as an autonomous agent. At the same time the pedestrian crowd dynamics is framed by the kinetic theory of biological systems.

Analysis of Sensitivity and Uncertainty in an Individual-Based Model of a Threatened Wildlife Species

EPA Science Inventory

We present a multi-faceted sensitivity analysis of a spatially explicit, individual-based model (IBM) (HexSim) of a threatened species, the Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) on a national forest in Washington, USA. Few sensitivity analyses have been conducted on ...

Movement rules for individual-based models of stream fish

Treesearch

Steven F. Railsback; Roland H. Lamberson; Bret C. Harvey; Walter E. Duffy

1999-01-01

Abstract - Spatially explicit individual-based models (IBMs) use movement rules to determine when an animal departs its current location and to determine its movement destination; these rules are therefore critical to accurate simulations. Movement rules typically define some measure of how an individual's expected fitness varies among locations, under the...

An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

2015-06-01

In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

A structure-based design of new C2- and C13-substituted taxanes: tubulin binding affinities and extended quantitative structure-activity relationships using comparative binding energy (COMBINE) analysis.

PubMed

Coderch, Claire; Tang, Yong; Klett, Javier; Zhang, Shu-En; Ma, Yun-Tao; Shaorong, Wang; Matesanz, Ruth; Pera, Benet; Canales, Angeles; Jiménez-Barbero, Jesús; Morreale, Antonio; Díaz, J Fernando; Fang, Wei-Shuo; Gago, Federico

2013-05-14

Ten novel taxanes bearing modifications at the C2 and C13 positions of the baccatin core have been synthesized and their binding affinities for mammalian tubulin have been experimentally measured. The design strategy was guided by (i) calculation of interaction energy maps with carbon, nitrogen and oxygen probes within the taxane-binding site of β-tubulin, and (ii) the prospective use of a structure-based QSAR (COMBINE) model derived from an earlier series comprising 47 congeneric taxanes. The tubulin-binding affinity displayed by one of the new compounds (CTX63) proved to be higher than that of docetaxel, and an updated COMBINE model provided a good correlation between the experimental binding free energies and a set of weighted residue-based ligand-receptor interaction energies for 54 out of the 57 compounds studied. The remaining three outliers from the original training series have in common a large unfavourable entropic contribution to the binding free energy that we attribute to taxane preorganization in aqueous solution in a conformation different from that compatible with tubulin binding. Support for this proposal was obtained from solution NMR experiments and molecular dynamics simulations in explicit water. Our results shed additional light on the determinants of tubulin-binding affinity for this important class of antitumour agents and pave the way for further rational structural modifications.

Evaluating the impacts of farmers' behaviors on a hypothetical agricultural water market based on double auction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Erhu; Cai, Ximing; Brozović, Nicholas; Minsker, Barbara

2017-05-01

Agricultural water markets are considered effective instruments to mitigate the impacts of water scarcity and to increase crop production. However, previous studies have limited understanding of how farmers' behaviors affect the performance of water markets. This study develops an agent-based model to explicitly incorporate farmers' behaviors, namely irrigation behavior (represented by farmers' sensitivity to soil water deficit λ) and bidding behavior (represented by farmers' rent seeking μ and learning rate β), in a hypothetical water market based on a double auction. The model is applied to the Guadalupe River Basin in Texas to simulate a hypothetical agricultural water market under various hydrological conditions. It is found that the joint impacts of the behavioral parameters on the water market are strong and complex. In particular, among the three behavioral parameters, λ affects the water market potential and its impacts on the performance of the water market are significant under most scenarios. The impacts of μ or β on the performance of the water market depend on the other two parameters. The water market could significantly increase crop production only when the following conditions are satisfied: (1) λ is small and (2) μ is small and/or β is large. The first condition requires efficient irrigation scheduling, and the second requires well-developed water market institutions that provide incentives to bid true valuation of water permits.

Intelligent judgements over health risks in a spatial agent-based model.

PubMed

Abdulkareem, Shaheen A; Augustijn, Ellen-Wien; Mustafa, Yaseen T; Filatova, Tatiana

2018-03-20

Millions of people worldwide are exposed to deadly infectious diseases on a regular basis. Breaking news of the Zika outbreak for instance, made it to the main media titles internationally. Perceiving disease risks motivate people to adapt their behavior toward a safer and more protective lifestyle. Computational science is instrumental in exploring patterns of disease spread emerging from many individual decisions and interactions among agents and their environment by means of agent-based models. Yet, current disease models rarely consider simulating dynamics in risk perception and its impact on the adaptive protective behavior. Social sciences offer insights into individual risk perception and corresponding protective actions, while machine learning provides algorithms and methods to capture these learning processes. This article presents an innovative approach to extend agent-based disease models by capturing behavioral aspects of decision-making in a risky context using machine learning techniques. We illustrate it with a case of cholera in Kumasi, Ghana, accounting for spatial and social risk factors that affect intelligent behavior and corresponding disease incidents. The results of computational experiments comparing intelligent with zero-intelligent representations of agents in a spatial disease agent-based model are discussed. We present a spatial disease agent-based model (ABM) with agents' behavior grounded in Protection Motivation Theory. Spatial and temporal patterns of disease diffusion among zero-intelligent agents are compared to those produced by a population of intelligent agents. Two Bayesian Networks (BNs) designed and coded using R and are further integrated with the NetLogo-based Cholera ABM. The first is a one-tier BN1 (only risk perception), the second is a two-tier BN2 (risk and coping behavior). We run three experiments (zero-intelligent agents, BN1 intelligence and BN2 intelligence) and report the results per experiment in terms of several macro metrics of interest: an epidemic curve, a risk perception curve, and a distribution of different types of coping strategies over time. Our results emphasize the importance of integrating behavioral aspects of decision making under risk into spatial disease ABMs using machine learning algorithms. This is especially relevant when studying cumulative impacts of behavioral changes and possible intervention strategies.

The activation of phosphoramide mustard anticancer drugs from ab initio simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allesch, Markus; Schwegler, Eric; Colvin, Mike; Gygi, Francois; Galli, Giulia

2007-03-01

The nitrogen mustard based DNA alkylating agents were the first nonhormonal drugs to be used effectively in the treatment of cancer and remain one of the most important drugs for the chemotherapeutic management of many common malignancies today. An understanding of the activation of these compounds is, in itself, of scientific interest, but also critical in designing improved analogs of greater selectivity and efficacy. We have investigated the activation pathways of one of the most active metabolites, phosphoramide mustard (PM), and its methylated ester (PMME). In particular, we have examined the activation barrier and reaction free energy for the intramolecular cyclization reaction using first principles molecular dynamics simulations with explicit and continuum solvation models. Structural, dynamical and electronic properties along the reaction path have been computed mainly to address the question why de-esterification is required to activate these drugs. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Dept. of Energy at the University of California/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract no. W-7405-Eng-48.

Excellent approach to modeling urban expansion by fuzzy cellular automata: agent base model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajavigodellou, Yousef; Alesheikh, Ali A.; Mohammed, Abdulrazak A. S.; Chapi, Kamran

2014-09-01

Recently, the interaction between humans and their environment is the one of important challenges in the world. Landuse/ cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. The complexity and dynamics of urban systems make the applicable practice of urban modeling very difficult. With the increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data, micro-simulation such as the agent based and cellular automata simulation methods, has been developed by geographers, planners, and scholars, and it has shown great potential for representing and simulating the complexity of the dynamic processes involved in urban growth and land use change. This paper presents Fuzzy Cellular Automata in Geospatial Information System and remote Sensing to simulated and predicted urban expansion pattern. These FCA-based dynamic spatial urban models provide an improved ability to forecast and assess future urban growth and to create planning scenarios, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of simulations that correspond to urban planning and management policies. A fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on Land use change is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. The model integrates an ABM (agent-based model) and FCA (Fuzzy Cellular Automata) to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Based on this model rapid development and green land protection under the influences of the behaviors and decision modes of regional authority agents, real estate developer agents, resident agents and non- resident agents and their interactions have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Erbil metropolitan region.

Agent-Based Models in Social Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quang, Le Anh; Jung, Nam; Cho, Eun Sung; Choi, Jae Han; Lee, Jae Woo

2018-06-01

We review the agent-based models (ABM) on social physics including econophysics. The ABM consists of agent, system space, and external environment. The agent is autonomous and decides his/her behavior by interacting with the neighbors or the external environment with the rules of behavior. Agents are irrational because they have only limited information when they make decisions. They adapt using learning from past memories. Agents have various attributes and are heterogeneous. ABM is a non-equilibrium complex system that exhibits various emergence phenomena. The social complexity ABM describes human behavioral characteristics. In ABMs of econophysics, we introduce the Sugarscape model and the artificial market models. We review minority games and majority games in ABMs of game theory. Social flow ABM introduces crowding, evacuation, traffic congestion, and pedestrian dynamics. We also review ABM for opinion dynamics and voter model. We discuss features and advantages and disadvantages of Netlogo, Repast, Swarm, and Mason, which are representative platforms for implementing ABM.

Reverse engineering a social agent-based hidden markov model--visage.

PubMed

Chen, Hung-Ching Justin; Goldberg, Mark; Magdon-Ismail, Malik; Wallace, William A

2008-12-01

We present a machine learning approach to discover the agent dynamics that drives the evolution of the social groups in a community. We set up the problem by introducing an agent-based hidden Markov model for the agent dynamics: an agent's actions are determined by micro-laws. Nonetheless, We learn the agent dynamics from the observed communications without knowing state transitions. Our approach is to identify the appropriate micro-laws corresponding to an identification of the appropriate parameters in the model. The model identification problem is then formulated as a mixed optimization problem. To solve the problem, we develop a multistage learning process for determining the group structure, the group evolution, and the micro-laws of a community based on the observed set of communications among actors, without knowing the semantic contents. Finally, to test the quality of our approximations and the feasibility of the approach, we present the results of extensive experiments on synthetic data as well as the results on real communities, such as Enron email and Movie newsgroups. Insight into agent dynamics helps us understand the driving forces behind social evolution.

Beta Regression Finite Mixture Models of Polarization and Priming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smithson, Michael; Merkle, Edgar C.; Verkuilen, Jay

2011-01-01

This paper describes the application of finite-mixture general linear models based on the beta distribution to modeling response styles, polarization, anchoring, and priming effects in probability judgments. These models, in turn, enhance our capacity for explicitly testing models and theories regarding the aforementioned phenomena. The mixture…

Modeling emerald ash borer spread in Ohio and Michigan

Treesearch

Anantha Prasad; Louis Iverson; Matthew Peters; Jonathan Bossenbroek; Davis Sydnor; Mark Schwartz

2008-01-01

Our group has been modelling the spread of emerald ash borer (EAB) in Ohio using a spatially explicit cell-based model that takes into account the insect's flight characteristics (Insect Flight Model) as well as external factors that enable the insects to travel passively (Insect Ride Model).

Proceedings 3rd NASA/IEEE Workshop on Formal Approaches to Agent-Based Systems (FAABS-III)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinchey, Michael (Editor); Rash, James (Editor); Truszkowski, Walt (Editor); Rouff, Christopher (Editor)

2004-01-01

These preceedings contain 18 papers and 4 poster presentation, covering topics such as: multi-agent systems, agent-based control, formalism, norms, as well as physical and biological models of agent-based systems. Some applications presented in the proceedings include systems analysis, software engineering, computer networks and robot control.

Implicit and explicit false belief development in preschool children.

PubMed

Grosse Wiesmann, Charlotte; Friederici, Angela D; Singer, Tania; Steinbeis, Nikolaus

2017-09-01

The ability to represent the mental states of other agents is referred to as Theory of Mind (ToM). A developmental breakthrough in ToM consists of understanding that others can have false beliefs about the world. Recently, infants younger than 2 years of age have been shown to pass novel implicit false belief tasks. However, the processes underlying these tasks and their relation to later-developing explicit false belief understanding, as well as to other cognitive abilities, are not yet understood. Here, we study a battery of implicit and explicit false belief tasks in 3- and 4-year-old children, relating their performance to linguistic abilities and executive functions. The present data show a significant developmental change from failing explicit false belief tasks at 3 years of age to passing them at the age of 4, while both age groups pass implicit false belief tasks. This differential developmental trajectory is reflected by the finding that explicit and implicit false belief tasks do not correlate. Further, we demonstrate that explicit false belief tasks correlate with syntactic and executive functions, whereas implicit false belief tasks do not. The study thus indicates that the processes underlying implicit false belief tasks are different from later-developing explicit false belief understanding. Moreover, our results speak for a critical role of syntactic and executive functions for passing standard explicit false belief tasks in contrast to implicit tasks. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Chronic Heart Failure Follow-up Management Based on Agent Technology

PubMed Central

Safdari, Reza

2015-01-01

Objectives Monitoring heart failure patients through continues assessment of sign and symptoms by information technology tools lead to large reduction in re-hospitalization. Agent technology is one of the strongest artificial intelligence areas; therefore, it can be expected to facilitate, accelerate, and improve health services especially in home care and telemedicine. The aim of this article is to provide an agent-based model for chronic heart failure (CHF) follow-up management. Methods This research was performed in 2013-2014 to determine appropriate scenarios and the data required to monitor and follow-up CHF patients, and then an agent-based model was designed. Results Agents in the proposed model perform the following tasks: medical data access, communication with other agents of the framework and intelligent data analysis, including medical data processing, reasoning, negotiation for decision-making, and learning capabilities. Conclusions The proposed multi-agent system has ability to learn and thus improve itself. Implementation of this model with more and various interval times at a broader level could achieve better results. The proposed multi-agent system is no substitute for cardiologists, but it could assist them in decision-making. PMID:26618038

Knowledge representation to support reasoning based on multiple models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gillam, April; Seidel, Jorge P.; Parker, Alice C.

1990-01-01

Model Based Reasoning is a powerful tool used to design and analyze systems, which are often composed of numerous interactive, interrelated subsystems. Models of the subsystems are written independently and may be used together while they are still under development. Thus the models are not static. They evolve as information becomes obsolete, as improved artifact descriptions are developed, and as system capabilities change. Researchers are using three methods to support knowledge/data base growth, to track the model evolution, and to handle knowledge from diverse domains. First, the representation methodology is based on having pools, or types, of knowledge from which each model is constructed. In addition information is explicit. This includes the interactions between components, the description of the artifact structure, and the constraints and limitations of the models. The third principle we have followed is the separation of the data and knowledge from the inferencing and equation solving mechanisms. This methodology is used in two distinct knowledge-based systems: one for the design of space systems and another for the synthesis of VLSI circuits. It has facilitated the growth and evolution of our models, made accountability of results explicit, and provided credibility for the user community. These capabilities have been implemented and are being used in actual design projects.

Foundations of “new” social science: Institutional legitimacy from philosophy, complexity science, postmodernism, and agent-based modeling

PubMed Central

Henrickson, Leslie; McKelvey, Bill

2002-01-01

Since the death of positivism in the 1970s, philosophers have turned their attention to scientific realism, evolutionary epistemology, and the Semantic Conception of Theories. Building on these trends, Campbellian Realism allows social scientists to accept real-world phenomena as criterion variables against which theories may be tested without denying the reality of individual interpretation and social construction. The Semantic Conception reduces the importance of axioms, but reaffirms the role of models and experiments. Philosophers now see models as “autonomous agents” that exert independent influence on the development of a science, in addition to theory and data. The inappropriate molding effects of math models on social behavior modeling are noted. Complexity science offers a “new” normal science epistemology focusing on order creation by self-organizing heterogeneous agents and agent-based models. The more responsible core of postmodernism builds on the idea that agents operate in a constantly changing web of interconnections among other agents. The connectionist agent-based models of complexity science draw on the same conception of social ontology as do postmodernists. These recent developments combine to provide foundations for a “new” social science centered on formal modeling not requiring the mathematical assumptions of agent homogeneity and equilibrium conditions. They give this “new” social science legitimacy in scientific circles that current social science approaches lack. PMID:12011408

Market-oriented Programming Using Small-world Networks for Controlling Building Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shigei, Noritaka; Miyajima, Hiromi; Osako, Tsukasa

The market model, which is one of the economic activity models, is modeled as an agent system, and applying the model to the resource allocation problem has been studied. For air conditioning control of building, which is one of the resource allocation problems, an effective method based on the agent system using auction has been proposed for traditional PID controller. On the other hand, it has been considered that this method is performed by decentralized control. However, its decentralization is not perfect, and its performace is not enough. In this paper, firstly, we propose a perfectly decentralized agent model and show its performance. Secondly, in order to improve the model, we propose the agent model based on small-world model. The effectiveness of the proposed model is shown by simulation.

A Two-Stage Multi-Agent Based Assessment Approach to Enhance Students' Learning Motivation through Negotiated Skills Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chadli, Abdelhafid; Bendella, Fatima; Tranvouez, Erwan

2015-01-01

In this paper we present an Agent-based evaluation approach in a context of Multi-agent simulation learning systems. Our evaluation model is based on a two stage assessment approach: (1) a Distributed skill evaluation combining agents and fuzzy sets theory; and (2) a Negotiation based evaluation of students' performance during a training…

Mathematical modeling of malaria infection with innate and adaptive immunity in individuals and agent-based communities.

PubMed

Gurarie, David; Karl, Stephan; Zimmerman, Peter A; King, Charles H; St Pierre, Timothy G; Davis, Timothy M E

2012-01-01

Agent-based modeling of Plasmodium falciparum infection offers an attractive alternative to the conventional Ross-Macdonald methodology, as it allows simulation of heterogeneous communities subjected to realistic transmission (inoculation patterns). We developed a new, agent based model that accounts for the essential in-host processes: parasite replication and its regulation by innate and adaptive immunity. The model also incorporates a simplified version of antigenic variation by Plasmodium falciparum. We calibrated the model using data from malaria-therapy (MT) studies, and developed a novel calibration procedure that accounts for a deterministic and a pseudo-random component in the observed parasite density patterns. Using the parasite density patterns of 122 MT patients, we generated a large number of calibrated parameters. The resulting data set served as a basis for constructing and simulating heterogeneous agent-based (AB) communities of MT-like hosts. We conducted several numerical experiments subjecting AB communities to realistic inoculation patterns reported from previous field studies, and compared the model output to the observed malaria prevalence in the field. There was overall consistency, supporting the potential of this agent-based methodology to represent transmission in realistic communities. Our approach represents a novel, convenient and versatile method to model Plasmodium falciparum infection.

Examining the Impact of the Walking School Bus With an Agent-Based Model

PubMed Central

Diez-Roux, Ana; Evenson, Kelly R.; Colabianchi, Natalie

2014-01-01

We used an agent-based model to examine the impact of the walking school bus (WSB) on children’s active travel to school. We identified a synergistic effect of the WSB with other intervention components such as an educational campaign designed to improve attitudes toward active travel to school. Results suggest that to maximize active travel to school, children should arrive on time at “bus stops” to allow faster WSB walking speeds. We also illustrate how an agent-based model can be used to identify the location of routes maximizing the effects of the WSB on active travel. Agent-based models can be used to examine plausible effects of the WSB on active travel to school under various conditions and to identify ways of implementing the WSB that maximize its effectiveness. PMID:24832410

The mixed impact of medical school on medical students' implicit and explicit weight bias.

PubMed

Phelan, Sean M; Puhl, Rebecca M; Burke, Sara E; Hardeman, Rachel; Dovidio, John F; Nelson, David B; Przedworski, Julia; Burgess, Diana J; Perry, Sylvia; Yeazel, Mark W; van Ryn, Michelle

2015-10-01

Health care trainees demonstrate implicit (automatic, unconscious) and explicit (conscious) bias against people from stigmatised and marginalised social groups, which can negatively influence communication and decision making. Medical schools are well positioned to intervene and reduce bias in new physicians. This study was designed to assess medical school factors that influence change in implicit and explicit bias against individuals from one stigmatised group: people with obesity. This was a prospective cohort study of medical students enrolled at 49 US medical schools randomly selected from all US medical schools within the strata of public and private schools and region. Participants were 1795 medical students surveyed at the beginning of their first year and end of their fourth year. Web-based surveys included measures of weight bias, and medical school experiences and climate. Bias change was compared with changes in bias in the general public over the same period. Linear mixed models were used to assess the impact of curriculum, contact with people with obesity, and faculty role modelling on weight bias change. Increased implicit and explicit biases were associated with less positive contact with patients with obesity and more exposure to faculty role modelling of discriminatory behaviour or negative comments about patients with obesity. Increased implicit bias was associated with training in how to deal with difficult patients. On average, implicit weight bias decreased and explicit bias increased during medical school, over a period of time in which implicit weight bias in the general public increased and explicit bias remained stable. Medical schools may reduce students' weight biases by increasing positive contact between students and patients with obesity, eliminating unprofessional role modelling by faculty members and residents, and altering curricula focused on treating difficult patients. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Decision support systems in health economics.

PubMed

Quaglini, S; Dazzi, L; Stefanelli, M; Barosi, G; Marchetti, M

1999-08-01

This article describes a system addressed to different health care professionals for building, using, and sharing decision support systems for resource allocation. The system deals with selected areas, namely the choice of diagnostic tests, the therapy planning, and the instrumentation purchase. Decision support is based on decision-analytic models, incorporating an explicit knowledge representation of both the medical domain knowledge and the economic evaluation theory. Application models are built on top of meta-models, that are used as guidelines for making explicit both the cost and effectiveness components. This approach improves the transparency and soundness of the collaborative decision-making process and facilitates the result interpretation.

The feasibility of using explicit method for linear correction of the particle size variation using NIR Spectroscopy combined with PLS2regression method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yulia, M.; Suhandy, D.

2018-03-01

NIR spectra obtained from spectral data acquisition system contains both chemical information of samples as well as physical information of the samples, such as particle size and bulk density. Several methods have been established for developing calibration models that can compensate for sample physical information variations. One common approach is to include physical information variation in the calibration model both explicitly and implicitly. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of using explicit method to compensate the influence of different particle size of coffee powder in NIR calibration model performance. A number of 220 coffee powder samples with two different types of coffee (civet and non-civet) and two different particle sizes (212 and 500 µm) were prepared. Spectral data was acquired using NIR spectrometer equipped with an integrating sphere for diffuse reflectance measurement. A discrimination method based on PLS-DA was conducted and the influence of different particle size on the performance of PLS-DA was investigated. In explicit method, we add directly the particle size as predicted variable results in an X block containing only the NIR spectra and a Y block containing the particle size and type of coffee. The explicit inclusion of the particle size into the calibration model is expected to improve the accuracy of type of coffee determination. The result shows that using explicit method the quality of the developed calibration model for type of coffee determination is a little bit superior with coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.99 and root mean square error of cross-validation (RMSECV) = 0.041. The performance of the PLS2 calibration model for type of coffee determination with particle size compensation was quite good and able to predict the type of coffee in two different particle sizes with relatively high R2 pred values. The prediction also resulted in low bias and RMSEP values.

Using Agent Base Models to Optimize Large Scale Network for Large System Inventories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shameldin, Ramez Ahmed; Bowling, Shannon R.

2010-01-01

The aim of this paper is to use Agent Base Models (ABM) to optimize large scale network handling capabilities for large system inventories and to implement strategies for the purpose of reducing capital expenses. The models used in this paper either use computational algorithms or procedure implementations developed by Matlab to simulate agent based models in a principal programming language and mathematical theory using clusters, these clusters work as a high performance computational performance to run the program in parallel computational. In both cases, a model is defined as compilation of a set of structures and processes assumed to underlie the behavior of a network system.

Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning Model for Effective Action Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Youk, Sang Jo; Lee, Bong Keun

Reinforcement learning is a sub area of machine learning concerned with how an agent ought to take actions in an environment so as to maximize some notion of long-term reward. In the case of multi-agent, especially, which state space and action space gets very enormous in compared to single agent, so it needs to take most effective measure available select the action strategy for effective reinforcement learning. This paper proposes a multi-agent reinforcement learning model based on fuzzy inference system in order to improve learning collect speed and select an effective action in multi-agent. This paper verifies an effective action select strategy through evaluation tests based on Robocop Keep away which is one of useful test-beds for multi-agent. Our proposed model can apply to evaluate efficiency of the various intelligent multi-agents and also can apply to strategy and tactics of robot soccer system.

Computational neuroanatomy: ontology-based representation of neural components and connectivity

PubMed Central

Rubin, Daniel L; Talos, Ion-Florin; Halle, Michael; Musen, Mark A; Kikinis, Ron

2009-01-01

Background A critical challenge in neuroscience is organizing, managing, and accessing the explosion in neuroscientific knowledge, particularly anatomic knowledge. We believe that explicit knowledge-based approaches to make neuroscientific knowledge computationally accessible will be helpful in tackling this challenge and will enable a variety of applications exploiting this knowledge, such as surgical planning. Results We developed ontology-based models of neuroanatomy to enable symbolic lookup, logical inference and mathematical modeling of neural systems. We built a prototype model of the motor system that integrates descriptive anatomic and qualitative functional neuroanatomical knowledge. In addition to modeling normal neuroanatomy, our approach provides an explicit representation of abnormal neural connectivity in disease states, such as common movement disorders. The ontology-based representation encodes both structural and functional aspects of neuroanatomy. The ontology-based models can be evaluated computationally, enabling development of automated computer reasoning applications. Conclusion Neuroanatomical knowledge can be represented in machine-accessible format using ontologies. Computational neuroanatomical approaches such as described in this work could become a key tool in translational informatics, leading to decision support applications that inform and guide surgical planning and personalized care for neurological disease in the future. PMID:19208191

Using Model Replication to Improve the Reliability of Agent-Based Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Wei; Kim, Yushim

The basic presupposition of model replication activities for a computational model such as an agent-based model (ABM) is that, as a robust and reliable tool, it must be replicable in other computing settings. This assumption has recently gained attention in the community of artificial society and simulation due to the challenges of model verification and validation. Illustrating the replication of an ABM representing fraudulent behavior in a public service delivery system originally developed in the Java-based MASON toolkit for NetLogo by a different author, this paper exemplifies how model replication exercises provide unique opportunities for model verification and validation process. At the same time, it helps accumulate best practices and patterns of model replication and contributes to the agenda of developing a standard methodological protocol for agent-based social simulation.

An Agent Based Collaborative Simplification of 3D Mesh Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Li-Rong; Yu, Bo; Hagiwara, Ichiro

Large-volume mesh model faces the challenge in fast rendering and transmission by Internet. The current mesh models obtained by using three-dimensional (3D) scanning technology are usually very large in data volume. This paper develops a mobile agent based collaborative environment on the development platform of mobile-C. Communication among distributed agents includes grasping image of visualized mesh model, annotation to grasped image and instant message. Remote and collaborative simplification can be efficiently conducted by Internet.

No Need for Conspiracy: Self-Organized Cartel Formation in a Modified Trust Game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peixoto, Tiago P.; Bornholdt, Stefan

2012-05-01

We investigate the dynamics of a trust game on a mixed population, where individuals with the role of buyers are forced to play against a predetermined number of sellers whom they choose dynamically. Agents with the role of sellers are also allowed to adapt the level of value for money of their products, based on payoff. The dynamics undergoes a transition at a specific value of the strategy update rate, above which an emergent cartel organization is observed, where sellers have similar values of below-optimal value for money. This cartel organization is not due to an explicit collusion among agents; instead, it arises spontaneously from the maximization of the individual payoffs. This dynamics is marked by large fluctuations and a high degree of unpredictability for most of the parameter space and serves as a plausible qualitative explanation for observed elevated levels and fluctuations of certain commodity prices.

Why we interact: on the functional role of the striatum in the subjective experience of social interaction.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, Ulrich J; Schilbach, Leonhard; Timmermans, Bert; Kuzmanovic, Bojana; Georgescu, Alexandra L; Bente, Gary; Vogeley, Kai

2014-11-01

There is ample evidence that human primates strive for social contact and experience interactions with conspecifics as intrinsically rewarding. Focusing on gaze behavior as a crucial means of human interaction, this study employed a unique combination of neuroimaging, eye-tracking, and computer-animated virtual agents to assess the neural mechanisms underlying this component of behavior. In the interaction task, participants believed that during each interaction the agent's gaze behavior could either be controlled by another participant or by a computer program. Their task was to indicate whether they experienced a given interaction as an interaction with another human participant or the computer program based on the agent's reaction. Unbeknownst to them, the agent was always controlled by a computer to enable a systematic manipulation of gaze reactions by varying the degree to which the agent engaged in joint attention. This allowed creating a tool to distinguish neural activity underlying the subjective experience of being engaged in social and non-social interaction. In contrast to previous research, this allows measuring neural activity while participants experience active engagement in real-time social interactions. Results demonstrate that gaze-based interactions with a perceived human partner are associated with activity in the ventral striatum, a core component of reward-related neurocircuitry. In contrast, interactions with a computer-driven agent activate attention networks. Comparisons of neural activity during interaction with behaviorally naïve and explicitly cooperative partners demonstrate different temporal dynamics of the reward system and indicate that the mere experience of engagement in social interaction is sufficient to recruit this system. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A framework for the use of agent based modeling to simulate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Simulation of human behavior in exposure modeling is a complex task. Traditionally, inter-individual variation in human activity has been modeled by drawing from a pool of single day time-activity diaries such as the US EPA Consolidated Human Activity Database (CHAD). Here, an agent-based model (ABM) is used to simulate population distributions of longitudinal patterns of four macro activities (sleeping, eating, working, and commuting) in populations of adults over a period of one year. In this ABM, an individual is modeled as an agent whose movement through time and space is determined by a set of decision rules. The rules are based on the agent having time-varying “needs” that are satisfied by performing actions. Needs are modeled as increasing over time, and taking an action reduces the need. Need-satisfying actions include sleeping (meeting the need for rest), eating (meeting the need for food), and commuting/working (meeting the need for income). Every time an action is completed, the model determines the next action the agent will take based on the magnitude of each of the agent’s needs at that point in time. Different activities advertise their ability to satisfy various needs of the agent (such as food to eat or sleeping in a bed or on a couch). The model then chooses the activity that satisfies the greatest of the agent’s needs. When multiple actions could address a need, the model will choose the most effective of the actions (bed over the couc

Hybrid evolutionary computing model for mobile agents of wireless Internet multimedia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hortos, William S.

2001-03-01

The ecosystem is used as an evolutionary paradigm of natural laws for the distributed information retrieval via mobile agents to allow the computational load to be added to server nodes of wireless networks, while reducing the traffic on communication links. Based on the Food Web model, a set of computational rules of natural balance form the outer stage to control the evolution of mobile agents providing multimedia services with a wireless Internet protocol WIP. The evolutionary model shows how mobile agents should behave with the WIP, in particular, how mobile agents can cooperate, compete and learn from each other, based on an underlying competition for radio network resources to establish the wireless connections to support the quality of service QoS of user requests. Mobile agents are also allowed to clone themselves, propagate and communicate with other agents. A two-layer model is proposed for agent evolution: the outer layer is based on the law of natural balancing, the inner layer is based on a discrete version of a Kohonen self-organizing feature map SOFM to distribute network resources to meet QoS requirements. The former is embedded in the higher OSI layers of the WIP, while the latter is used in the resource management procedures of Layer 2 and 3 of the protocol. Algorithms for the distributed computation of mobile agent evolutionary behavior are developed by adding a learning state to the agent evolution state diagram. When an agent is in an indeterminate state, it can communicate to other agents. Computing models can be replicated from other agents. Then the agents transitions to the mutating state to wait for a new information-retrieval goal. When a wireless terminal or station lacks a network resource, an agent in the suspending state can change its policy to submit to the environment before it transitions to the searching state. The agents learn the facts of agent state information entered into an external database. In the cloning process, two agents on a host station sharing a common goal can be merged or married to compose a new agent. Application of the two-layer set of algorithms for mobile agent evolution, performed in a distributed processing environment, is made to the QoS management functions of the IP multimedia IM sub-network of the third generation 3G Wideband Code-division Multiple Access W-CDMA wireless network.

Implicit and explicit host effects on excitons in pentacene derivatives.

PubMed

Charlton, R J; Fogarty, R M; Bogatko, S; Zuehlsdorff, T J; Hine, N D M; Heeney, M; Horsfield, A P; Haynes, P D

2018-03-14

An ab initio study of the effects of implicit and explicit hosts on the excited state properties of pentacene and its nitrogen-based derivatives has been performed using ground state density functional theory (DFT), time-dependent DFT, and ΔSCF. We observe a significant solvatochromic redshift in the excitation energy of the lowest singlet state (S 1 ) of pentacene from inclusion in a p-terphenyl host compared to vacuum; for an explicit host consisting of six nearest neighbour p-terphenyls, we obtain a redshift of 65 meV while a conductor-like polarisable continuum model (CPCM) yields a 78 meV redshift. Comparison is made between the excitonic properties of pentacene and four of its nitrogen-based analogs, 1,8-, 2,9-, 5,12-, and 6,13-diazapentacene with the latter found to be the most distinct due to local distortions in the ground state electronic structure. We observe that a CPCM is insufficient to fully understand the impact of the host due to the presence of a mild charge-transfer (CT) coupling between the chromophore and neighbouring p-terphenyls, a phenomenon which can only be captured using an explicit model. The strength of this CT interaction increases as the nitrogens are brought closer to the central acene ring of pentacene.

Implicit and explicit host effects on excitons in pentacene derivatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charlton, R. J.; Fogarty, R. M.; Bogatko, S.; Zuehlsdorff, T. J.; Hine, N. D. M.; Heeney, M.; Horsfield, A. P.; Haynes, P. D.

2018-03-01

An ab initio study of the effects of implicit and explicit hosts on the excited state properties of pentacene and its nitrogen-based derivatives has been performed using ground state density functional theory (DFT), time-dependent DFT, and ΔSCF. We observe a significant solvatochromic redshift in the excitation energy of the lowest singlet state (S1) of pentacene from inclusion in a p-terphenyl host compared to vacuum; for an explicit host consisting of six nearest neighbour p-terphenyls, we obtain a redshift of 65 meV while a conductor-like polarisable continuum model (CPCM) yields a 78 meV redshift. Comparison is made between the excitonic properties of pentacene and four of its nitrogen-based analogs, 1,8-, 2,9-, 5,12-, and 6,13-diazapentacene with the latter found to be the most distinct due to local distortions in the ground state electronic structure. We observe that a CPCM is insufficient to fully understand the impact of the host due to the presence of a mild charge-transfer (CT) coupling between the chromophore and neighbouring p-terphenyls, a phenomenon which can only be captured using an explicit model. The strength of this CT interaction increases as the nitrogens are brought closer to the central acene ring of pentacene.

A task-based support architecture for developing point-of-care clinical decision support systems for the emergency department.

PubMed

Wilk, S; Michalowski, W; O'Sullivan, D; Farion, K; Sayyad-Shirabad, J; Kuziemsky, C; Kukawka, B

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to create a task-based support architecture for developing clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) that assist physicians in making decisions at the point-of-care in the emergency department (ED). The backbone of the proposed architecture was established by a task-based emergency workflow model for a patient-physician encounter. The architecture was designed according to an agent-oriented paradigm. Specifically, we used the O-MaSE (Organization-based Multi-agent System Engineering) method that allows for iterative translation of functional requirements into architectural components (e.g., agents). The agent-oriented paradigm was extended with ontology-driven design to implement ontological models representing knowledge required by specific agents to operate. The task-based architecture allows for the creation of a CDSS that is aligned with the task-based emergency workflow model. It facilitates decoupling of executable components (agents) from embedded domain knowledge (ontological models), thus supporting their interoperability, sharing, and reuse. The generic architecture was implemented as a pilot system, MET3-AE--a CDSS to help with the management of pediatric asthma exacerbation in the ED. The system was evaluated in a hospital ED. The architecture allows for the creation of a CDSS that integrates support for all tasks from the task-based emergency workflow model, and interacts with hospital information systems. Proposed architecture also allows for reusing and sharing system components and knowledge across disease-specific CDSSs.

A spatial web/agent-based model to support stakeholders' negotiation regarding land development.

PubMed

Pooyandeh, Majeed; Marceau, Danielle J

2013-11-15

Decision making in land management can be greatly enhanced if the perspectives of concerned stakeholders are taken into consideration. This often implies negotiation in order to reach an agreement based on the examination of multiple alternatives. This paper describes a spatial web/agent-based modeling system that was developed to support the negotiation process of stakeholders regarding land development in southern Alberta, Canada. This system integrates a fuzzy analytic hierarchy procedure within an agent-based model in an interactive visualization environment provided through a web interface to facilitate the learning and negotiation of the stakeholders. In the pre-negotiation phase, the stakeholders compare their evaluation criteria using linguistic expressions. Due to the uncertainty and fuzzy nature of such comparisons, a fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process is then used to prioritize the criteria. The negotiation starts by a development plan being submitted by a user (stakeholder) through the web interface. An agent called the proposer, which represents the proposer of the plan, receives this plan and starts negotiating with all other agents. The negotiation is conducted in a step-wise manner where the agents change their attitudes by assigning a new set of weights to their criteria. If an agreement is not achieved, a new location for development is proposed by the proposer agent. This process is repeated until a location is found that satisfies all agents to a certain predefined degree. To evaluate the performance of the model, the negotiation was simulated with four agents, one of which being the proposer agent, using two hypothetical development plans. The first plan was selected randomly; the other one was chosen in an area that is of high importance to one of the agents. While the agents managed to achieve an agreement about the location of the land development after three rounds of negotiation in the first scenario, seven rounds were required in the second scenario. The proposed web/agent-based model facilitates the interaction and learning among stakeholders when facing multiple alternatives. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of predicted Medfly ( Ceratitis capitata) quarantine length in the United States utilizing degree-day and agent-based models.

PubMed

Collier, Travis; Manoukis, Nicholas

2017-01-01

Invasions by pest insects pose a significant threat to agriculture worldwide. In the case of Ceratitis capitata incursions on the US mainland, where it is not officially established, repeated detections are followed by quarantines and treatments to eliminate the invading population. However, it is difficult to accurately set quarantine duration because non-detection may not mean the pest is eliminated. Most programs extend quarantine lengths past the last fly detection by calculating the amount of time required for 3 generations to elapse under a thermal unit accumulation development model ("degree day"). A newer approach is to use an Agent-Based Simulation (ABS) to explicitly simulate population demographics and elimination. Here, predicted quarantine lengths for 11 sites in the continental United States are evaluated using both approaches. Results indicate a strong seasonality in quarantine length, with longer predictions in the second half of the year compared with the first; this pattern is more extreme in degree day predictions compared with ABS. Geographically, quarantine lengths increased with latitude, though this was less pronounced under the ABS. Variation in quarantine lengths for particular times and places was dramatically larger for degree day than ABS, generally spiking in the middle of the year for degree day and peaking in second half of the year for ABS. Analysis of 34 C. capitata quarantines from 1975 to 2017 in California shows that, for all but two, quarantines were started in the second half of the year, when degree day quarantine lengths are longest and have the highest uncertainty. For a set of hypothetical outbreaks based on these historical quarantines, the ABS produced significantly shorter quarantines than degree day calculations. Overall, ABS quarantine lengths were more consistent than degree day predictions, avoided unrealistically long values, and captured effects of rare events such as cold snaps.

Agent Based Modeling Applications for Geosciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, J. S.

2004-12-01

Agent-based modeling techniques have successfully been applied to systems in which complex behaviors or outcomes arise from varied interactions between individuals in the system. Each individual interacts with its environment, as well as with other individuals, by following a set of relatively simple rules. Traditionally this "bottom-up" modeling approach has been applied to problems in the fields of economics and sociology, but more recently has been introduced to various disciplines in the geosciences. This technique can help explain the origin of complex processes from a relatively simple set of rules, incorporate large and detailed datasets when they exist, and simulate the effects of extreme events on system-wide behavior. Some of the challenges associated with this modeling method include: significant computational requirements in order to keep track of thousands to millions of agents, methods and strategies of model validation are lacking, as is a formal methodology for evaluating model uncertainty. Challenges specific to the geosciences, include how to define agents that control water, contaminant fluxes, climate forcing and other physical processes and how to link these "geo-agents" into larger agent-based simulations that include social systems such as demographics economics and regulations. Effective management of limited natural resources (such as water, hydrocarbons, or land) requires an understanding of what factors influence the demand for these resources on a regional and temporal scale. Agent-based models can be used to simulate this demand across a variety of sectors under a range of conditions and determine effective and robust management policies and monitoring strategies. The recent focus on the role of biological processes in the geosciences is another example of an area that could benefit from agent-based applications. A typical approach to modeling the effect of biological processes in geologic media has been to represent these processes in a thermodynamic framework as a set of reactions that roll-up the integrated effect that diverse biological communities exert on a geological system. This approach may work well to predict the effect of certain biological communities in specific environments in which experimental data is available. However, it does not further our knowledge of how the geobiological system actually functions on a micro scale. Agent-based techniques may provide a framework to explore the fundamental interactions required to explain the system-wide behavior. This presentation will present a survey of several promising applications of agent-based modeling approaches to problems in the geosciences and describe specific contributions to some of the inherent challenges facing this approach.

A knowledge base architecture for distributed knowledge agents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riedesel, Joel; Walls, Bryan

1990-01-01

A tuple space based object oriented model for knowledge base representation and interpretation is presented. An architecture for managing distributed knowledge agents is then implemented within the model. The general model is based upon a database implementation of a tuple space. Objects are then defined as an additional layer upon the database. The tuple space may or may not be distributed depending upon the database implementation. A language for representing knowledge and inference strategy is defined whose implementation takes advantage of the tuple space. The general model may then be instantiated in many different forms, each of which may be a distinct knowledge agent. Knowledge agents may communicate using tuple space mechanisms as in the LINDA model as well as using more well known message passing mechanisms. An implementation of the model is presented describing strategies used to keep inference tractable without giving up expressivity. An example applied to a power management and distribution network for Space Station Freedom is given.

Brahms Mobile Agents: Architecture and Field Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clancey, William J.; Sierhuis, Maarten; Kaskiris, Charis; vanHoof, Ron

2002-01-01

We have developed a model-based, distributed architecture that integrates diverse components in a system designed for lunar and planetary surface operations: an astronaut's space suit, cameras, rover/All-Terrain Vehicle (ATV), robotic assistant, other personnel in a local habitat, and a remote mission support team (with time delay). Software processes, called agents, implemented in the Brahms language, run on multiple, mobile platforms. These mobile agents interpret and transform available data to help people and robotic systems coordinate their actions to make operations more safe and efficient. The Brahms-based mobile agent architecture (MAA) uses a novel combination of agent types so the software agents may understand and facilitate communications between people and between system components. A state-of-the-art spoken dialogue interface is integrated with Brahms models, supporting a speech-driven field observation record and rover command system (e.g., return here later and bring this back to the habitat ). This combination of agents, rover, and model-based spoken dialogue interface constitutes a personal assistant. An important aspect of the methodology involves first simulating the entire system in Brahms, then configuring the agents into a run-time system.

An equation-free approach to agent-based computation: Bifurcation analysis and control of stationary states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siettos, C. I.; Gear, C. W.; Kevrekidis, I. G.

2012-08-01

We show how the equation-free approach can be exploited to enable agent-based simulators to perform system-level computations such as bifurcation, stability analysis and controller design. We illustrate these tasks through an event-driven agent-based model describing the dynamic behaviour of many interacting investors in the presence of mimesis. Using short bursts of appropriately initialized runs of the detailed, agent-based simulator, we construct the coarse-grained bifurcation diagram of the (expected) density of agents and investigate the stability of its multiple solution branches. When the mimetic coupling between agents becomes strong enough, the stable stationary state loses its stability at a coarse turning point bifurcation. We also demonstrate how the framework can be used to design a wash-out dynamic controller that stabilizes open-loop unstable stationary states even under model uncertainty.

IPA (v1): a framework for agent-based modelling of soil water movement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mewes, Benjamin; Schumann, Andreas H.

2018-06-01

In the last decade, agent-based modelling (ABM) became a popular modelling technique in social sciences, medicine, biology, and ecology. ABM was designed to simulate systems that are highly dynamic and sensitive to small variations in their composition and their state. As hydrological systems, and natural systems in general, often show dynamic and non-linear behaviour, ABM can be an appropriate way to model these systems. Nevertheless, only a few studies have utilized the ABM method for process-based modelling in hydrology. The percolation of water through the unsaturated soil is highly responsive to the current state of the soil system; small variations in composition lead to major changes in the transport system. Hence, we present a new approach for modelling the movement of water through a soil column: autonomous water agents that transport water through the soil while interacting with their environment as well as with other agents under physical laws.

Analysis of sensitivity and uncertainty in an individual-based model of a threatened wildlife species

Treesearch

Bruce G. Marcot; Peter H. Singleton; Nathan H. Schumaker

2015-01-01

Sensitivity analysis—determination of how prediction variables affect response variables—of individual-based models (IBMs) are few but important to the interpretation of model output. We present sensitivity analysis of a spatially explicit IBM (HexSim) of a threatened species, the Northern Spotted Owl (NSO; Strix occidentalis caurina) in Washington...

An Immune Agent for Web-Based AI Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gong, Tao; Cai, Zixing

2006-01-01

To overcome weakness and faults of a web-based e-learning course such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), an immune agent was proposed, simulating a natural immune mechanism against a virus. The immune agent was built on the multi-dimension education agent model and immune algorithm. The web-based AI course was comprised of many files, such as HTML…

Comparison of an Agent-based Model of Disease Propagation with the Generalised SIR Epidemic Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-08-01

has become a practical method for conducting Epidemiological Modelling. In the agent- based approach the whole township can be modelled as a system of...SIR system was initially developed based on a very simplified model of social interaction. For instance an assumption of uniform population mixing was...simulating the progress of a disease within a host and of transmission between hosts is based upon Transportation Analysis and Simulation System

A work-centered cognitively based architecture for decision support: the work-centered infomediary layer (WIL) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zachary, Wayne; Eggleston, Robert; Donmoyer, Jason; Schremmer, Serge

2003-09-01

Decision-making is strongly shaped and influenced by the work context in which decisions are embedded. This suggests that decision support needs to be anchored by a model (implicit or explicit) of the work process, in contrast to traditional approaches that anchor decision support to either context free decision models (e.g., utility theory) or to detailed models of the external (e.g., battlespace) environment. An architecture for cognitively-based, work centered decision support called the Work-centered Informediary Layer (WIL) is presented. WIL separates decision support into three overall processes that build and dynamically maintain an explicit context model, use the context model to identify opportunities for decision support and tailor generic decision-support strategies to the current context and offer them to the system-user/decision-maker. The generic decision support strategies include such things as activity/attention aiding, decision process structuring, work performance support (selective, contextual automation), explanation/ elaboration, infosphere data retrieval, and what if/action-projection and visualization. A WIL-based application is a work-centered decision support layer that provides active support without intent inferencing, and that is cognitively based without requiring classical cognitive task analyses. Example WIL applications are detailed and discussed.

Analytical validation of an explicit finite element model of a rolling element bearing with a localised line spall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Sarabjeet; Howard, Carl Q.; Hansen, Colin H.; Köpke, Uwe G.

2018-03-01

In this paper, numerically modelled vibration response of a rolling element bearing with a localised outer raceway line spall is presented. The results were obtained from a finite element (FE) model of the defective bearing solved using an explicit dynamics FE software package, LS-DYNA. Time domain vibration signals of the bearing obtained directly from the FE modelling were processed further to estimate time-frequency and frequency domain results, such as spectrogram and power spectrum, using standard signal processing techniques pertinent to the vibration-based monitoring of rolling element bearings. A logical approach to analyses of the numerically modelled results was developed with an aim to presenting the analytical validation of the modelled results. While the time and frequency domain analyses of the results show that the FE model generates accurate bearing kinematics and defect frequencies, the time-frequency analysis highlights the simulation of distinct low- and high-frequency characteristic vibration signals associated with the unloading and reloading of the rolling elements as they move in and out of the defect, respectively. Favourable agreement of the numerical and analytical results demonstrates the validation of the results from the explicit FE modelling of the bearing.

Exploring component-based approaches in forest landscape modeling

Treesearch

H. S. He; D. R. Larsen; D. J. Mladenoff

2002-01-01

Forest management issues are increasingly required to be addressed in a spatial context, which has led to the development of spatially explicit forest landscape models. The numerous processes, complex spatial interactions, and diverse applications in spatial modeling make the development of forest landscape models difficult for any single research group. New...

Diversity and Community: The Role of Agent-Based Modeling.

PubMed

Stivala, Alex

2017-06-01

Community psychology involves several dialectics between potentially opposing ideals, such as theory and practice, rights and needs, and respect for human diversity and sense of community. Some recent papers in the American Journal of Community Psychology have examined the diversity-community dialectic, some with the aid of agent-based modeling and concepts from network science. This paper further elucidates these concepts and suggests that research in community psychology can benefit from a useful dialectic between agent-based modeling and the real-world concerns of community psychology. © Society for Community Research and Action 2017.

Application of a Genetic Algorithm and Multi Agent System to Explore Emergent Patterns of Social Rationality and a Distress-Based Model for Deceit in the Workplace

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

postponed the fulfillment of her own Masters Degree by at least 18 months so that I would have the opportunity to earn mine. She is smart , lovely...GENETIC ALGORITHM AND MULTI AGENT SYSTEM TO EXPLORE EMERGENT PATTERNS OF SOCIAL RATIONALITY AND A DISTRESS-BASED MODEL FOR DECEIT IN THE WORKPLACE...of a Genetic Algorithm and Mutli Agent System to Explore Emergent Patterns of Social Rationality and a Distress-Based Model for Deceit in the

Toward a Predictive Model of Arctic Coastal Retreat in a Warming Climate, Beaufort Sea, Alaska

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

level by waves and surge and tide. Melt rate is governed by an empirically based iceberg melting algorithm that includes explicitly the roles of wave...Thermal erosion of a permafrost coastline: Improving process-based models using time-lapse photography, Arctic Alpine Antarctic Research 43(3): 474

Stability of subsystem solutions in agent-based models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perc, Matjaž

2018-01-01

The fact that relatively simple entities, such as particles or neurons, or even ants or bees or humans, give rise to fascinatingly complex behaviour when interacting in large numbers is the hallmark of complex systems science. Agent-based models are frequently employed for modelling and obtaining a predictive understanding of complex systems. Since the sheer number of equations that describe the behaviour of an entire agent-based model often makes it impossible to solve such models exactly, Monte Carlo simulation methods must be used for the analysis. However, unlike pairwise interactions among particles that typically govern solid-state physics systems, interactions among agents that describe systems in biology, sociology or the humanities often involve group interactions, and they also involve a larger number of possible states even for the most simplified description of reality. This begets the question: when can we be certain that an observed simulation outcome of an agent-based model is actually stable and valid in the large system-size limit? The latter is key for the correct determination of phase transitions between different stable solutions, and for the understanding of the underlying microscopic processes that led to these phase transitions. We show that a satisfactory answer can only be obtained by means of a complete stability analysis of subsystem solutions. A subsystem solution can be formed by any subset of all possible agent states. The winner between two subsystem solutions can be determined by the average moving direction of the invasion front that separates them, yet it is crucial that the competing subsystem solutions are characterised by a proper composition and spatiotemporal structure before the competition starts. We use the spatial public goods game with diverse tolerance as an example, but the approach has relevance for a wide variety of agent-based models.

MOAB: a spatially explicit, individual-based expert system for creating animal foraging models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, J.; Finn, John T.

1999-01-01

We describe the development, structure, and corroboration process of a simulation model of animal behavior (MOAB). MOAB can create spatially explicit, individual-based animal foraging models. Users can create or replicate heterogeneous landscape patterns, and place resources and individual animals of a goven species on that landscape to simultaneously simulate the foraging behavior of multiple species. The heuristic rules for animal behavior are maintained in a user-modifiable expert system. MOAB can be used to explore hypotheses concerning the influence of landscape patttern on animal movement and foraging behavior. A red fox (Vulpes vulpes L.) foraging and nest predation model was created to test MOAB's capabilities. Foxes were simulated for 30-day periods using both expert system and random movement rules. Home range size, territory formation and other available simulation studies. A striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis L.) model also was developed. The expert system model proved superior to stochastic in respect to territory formation, general movement patterns and home range size.

Combining Human and Machine Intelligence to Derive Agents' Behavioral Rules for Groundwater Irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Y.; Quinn, C.; Cai, X.

2015-12-01

One major challenge of agent-based modeling is to derive agents' behavioral rules due to behavioral uncertainty and data scarcity. This study proposes a new approach to combine a data-driven modeling based on the directed information (i.e., machine intelligence) with expert domain knowledge (i.e., human intelligence) to derive the behavioral rules of agents considering behavioral uncertainty. A directed information graph algorithm is applied to identifying the causal relationships between agents' decisions (i.e., groundwater irrigation depth) and time-series of environmental, socio-economical and institutional factors. A case study is conducted for the High Plains aquifer hydrological observatory (HO) area, U.S. Preliminary results show that four factors, corn price (CP), underlying groundwater level (GWL), monthly mean temperature (T) and precipitation (P) have causal influences on agents' decisions on groundwater irrigation depth (GWID) to various extents. Based on the similarity of the directed information graph for each agent, five clusters of graphs are further identified to represent all the agents' behaviors in the study area as shown in Figure 1. Using these five representative graphs, agents' monthly optimal groundwater pumping rates are derived through the probabilistic inference. Such data-driven relationships and probabilistic quantifications are then coupled with a physically-based groundwater model to investigate the interactions between agents' pumping behaviors and the underlying groundwater system in the context of coupled human and natural systems.

Exploring the persistence of stream-dwelling trout populations under alternative real-world turbidity regimes with an individual-based model

Treesearch

Bret C. Harvey; Steven F. Railsback

2009-01-01

We explored the effects of elevated turbidity on stream-resident populations of coastal cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii using a spatially explicit individual-based model. Turbidity regimes were contrasted by means of 15-year simulations in a third-order stream in northwestern California. The alternative regimes were based on multiple-year, continuous...

Development of agent-based on-line adaptive signal control (ASC) framework using connected vehicle (CV) technology.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-04-01

In this study, we developed an adaptive signal control (ASC) framework for connected vehicles (CVs) using agent-based modeling technique. : The proposed framework consists of two types of agents: 1) vehicle agents (VAs); and 2) signal controller agen...

Teacher challenges, perceptions, and use of science models in middle school classrooms about climate, weather, and energy concepts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yarker, Morgan Brown

Research suggests that scientific models and modeling should be topics covered in K-12 classrooms as part of a comprehensive science curriculum. It is especially important when talking about topics in weather and climate, where computer and forecast models are the center of attention. There are several approaches to model based inquiry, but it can be argued, theoretically, that science models can be effectively implemented into any approach to inquiry if they are utilized appropriately. Yet, it remains to be explored how science models are actually implemented in classrooms. This study qualitatively looks at three middle school science teachers' use of science models with various approaches to inquiry during their weather and climate units. Results indicate that the teacher who used the most elements of inquiry used models in a way that aligned best with the theoretical framework than the teachers who used fewer elements of inquiry. The theoretical framework compares an approach to argument-based inquiry to model-based inquiry, which argues that the approaches are essentially identical, so teachers who use inquiry should be able to apply model-based inquiry using the same approach. However, none of the teachers in this study had a complete understanding of the role models play in authentic science inquiry, therefore students were not explicitly exposed to the ideas that models can be used to make predictions about, and are representations of, a natural phenomenon. Rather, models were explicitly used to explain concepts to students or have students explain concepts to the teacher or to each other. Additionally, models were used as a focal point for conversation between students, usually as they were creating, modifying, or using models. Teachers were not observed asking students to evaluate models. Since science models are an important aspect of understanding science, it is important that teachers not only know how to implement models into an inquiry environment, but also understand the characteristics of science models so that they can explicitly teach the concept of modeling to students. This study suggests that better pre-service and in-service teacher education is needed to prepare students to teach about science models effectively.

Towards a 3d Spatial Urban Energy Modelling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahu, J.-M.; Koch, A.; Kremers, E.; Murshed, S. M.

2013-09-01

Today's needs to reduce the environmental impact of energy use impose dramatic changes for energy infrastructure and existing demand patterns (e.g. buildings) corresponding to their specific context. In addition, future energy systems are expected to integrate a considerable share of fluctuating power sources and equally a high share of distributed generation of electricity. Energy system models capable of describing such future systems and allowing the simulation of the impact of these developments thus require a spatial representation in order to reflect the local context and the boundary conditions. This paper describes two recent research approaches developed at EIFER in the fields of (a) geo-localised simulation of heat energy demand in cities based on 3D morphological data and (b) spatially explicit Agent-Based Models (ABM) for the simulation of smart grids. 3D city models were used to assess solar potential and heat energy demand of residential buildings which enable cities to target the building refurbishment potentials. Distributed energy systems require innovative modelling techniques where individual components are represented and can interact. With this approach, several smart grid demonstrators were simulated, where heterogeneous models are spatially represented. Coupling 3D geodata with energy system ABMs holds different advantages for both approaches. On one hand, energy system models can be enhanced with high resolution data from 3D city models and their semantic relations. Furthermore, they allow for spatial analysis and visualisation of the results, with emphasis on spatially and structurally correlations among the different layers (e.g. infrastructure, buildings, administrative zones) to provide an integrated approach. On the other hand, 3D models can benefit from more detailed system description of energy infrastructure, representing dynamic phenomena and high resolution models for energy use at component level. The proposed modelling strategies conceptually and practically integrate urban spatial and energy planning approaches. The combined modelling approach that will be developed based on the described sectorial models holds the potential to represent hybrid energy systems coupling distributed generation of electricity with thermal conversion systems.

Organization-based Model-driven Development of High-assurance Multiagent Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-02-27

based Model -driven Development of High-assurance Multiagent Systems " performed by Dr. Scott A . DeLoach and Dr Robby at Kansas State University... A Capabilities Based Model for Artificial Organizations. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems . Volume 16, no. 1, February 2008, pp...Matson, E . T. (2007). A capabilities based theory of artificial organizations. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems

Comparing administered and market-based water allocation systems using an agent-based modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, J.; Cai, X.; Wang, Z.

2009-12-01

It also has been well recognized that market-based systems can have significant advantages over administered systems for water allocation. However there are not many successful water markets around the world yet and administered systems exist commonly in water allocation management practice. This paradox has been under discussion for decades and still calls for attention for both research and practice. This paper explores some insights for the paradox and tries to address why market systems have not been widely implemented for water allocation. Adopting the theory of agent-based system we develop a consistent analytical model to interpret both systems. First we derive some theorems based on the analytical model, with respect to the necessary conditions for economic efficiency of water allocation. Following that the agent-based model is used to illustrate the coherence and difference between administered and market-based systems. The two systems are compared from three aspects: 1) the driving forces acting on the system state, 2) system efficiency, and 3) equity. Regarding economic efficiency, penalty on the violation of water use permits (or rights) under an administered system can lead to system-wide economic efficiency, as well as being acceptable by some agents, which follows the theory of the so-call rational violation. Ideal equity will be realized if penalty equals incentive with an administered system and if transaction costs are zero with a market system. The performances of both agents and the over system are explained with an administered system and market system, respectively. The performances of agents are subject to different mechanisms of interactions between agents under the two systems. The system emergency (i.e., system benefit, equilibrium market price, etc), resulting from the performance at the agent level, reflects the different mechanism of the two systems, the “invisible hand” with the market system and administrative measures (penalty and subsidy) with the administered system. Furthermore, the impact of hydrological uncertainty on the performance of water users under the two systems is analyzed by extending the deterministic model to a stochastic one subject to the uncertainty of water availability. It is found that the system response to hydrologic uncertainty depends on risk management mechanics - sharing risk equally among the agents or by prescribed priorities on some agents. Figure1. Agent formulation and its implications in administered system and market-based system

Characterization of chemical agent transport in paints.

PubMed

Willis, Matthew P; Gordon, Wesley; Lalain, Teri; Mantooth, Brent

2013-09-15

A combination of vacuum-based vapor emission measurements with a mass transport model was employed to determine the interaction of chemical warfare agents with various materials, including transport parameters of agents in paints. Accurate determination of mass transport parameters enables the simulation of the chemical agent distribution in a material for decontaminant performance modeling. The evaluation was performed with the chemical warfare agents bis(2-chloroethyl) sulfide (distilled mustard, known as the chemical warfare blister agent HD) and O-ethyl S-[2-(diisopropylamino)ethyl] methylphosphonothioate (VX), an organophosphate nerve agent, deposited on to two different types of polyurethane paint coatings. The results demonstrated alignment between the experimentally measured vapor emission flux and the predicted vapor flux. Mass transport modeling demonstrated rapid transport of VX into the coatings; VX penetrated through the aliphatic polyurethane-based coating (100 μm) within approximately 107 min. By comparison, while HD was more soluble in the coatings, the penetration depth in the coatings was approximately 2× lower than VX. Applications of mass transport parameters include the ability to predict agent uptake, and subsequent long-term vapor emission or contact transfer where the agent could present exposure risks. Additionally, these parameters and model enable the ability to perform decontamination modeling to predict how decontaminants remove agent from these materials. Published by Elsevier B.V.

An example of population-level risk assessments for small mammals using individual-based population models.

PubMed

Schmitt, Walter; Auteri, Domenica; Bastiansen, Finn; Ebeling, Markus; Liu, Chun; Luttik, Robert; Mastitsky, Sergey; Nacci, Diane; Topping, Chris; Wang, Magnus

2016-01-01

This article presents a case study demonstrating the application of 3 individual-based, spatially explicit population models (IBMs, also known as agent-based models) in ecological risk assessments to predict long-term effects of a pesticide to populations of small mammals. The 3 IBMs each used a hypothetical fungicide (FungicideX) in different scenarios: spraying in cereals (common vole, Microtus arvalis), spraying in orchards (field vole, Microtus agrestis), and cereal seed treatment (wood mouse, Apodemus sylvaticus). Each scenario used existing model landscapes, which differed greatly in size and structural complexity. The toxicological profile of FungicideX was defined so that the deterministic long-term first tier risk assessment would result in high risk to small mammals, thus providing the opportunity to use the IBMs for risk assessment refinement (i.e., higher tier risk assessment). Despite differing internal model design and scenarios, results indicated in all 3 cases low population sensitivity unless FungicideX was applied at very high (×10) rates. Recovery from local population impacts was generally fast. Only when patch extinctions occured in simulations of intentionally high acute toxic effects, recovery periods, then determined by recolonization, were of any concern. Conclusions include recommendations for the most important input considerations, including the selection of exposure levels, duration of simulations, statistically robust number of replicates, and endpoints to report. However, further investigation and agreement are needed to develop recommendations for landscape attributes such as size, structure, and crop rotation to define appropriate regulatory risk assessment scenarios. Overall, the application of IBMs provides multiple advantages to higher tier ecological risk assessments for small mammals, including consistent and transparent direct links to specific protection goals, and the consideration of more realistic scenarios. © 2015 SETAC.

Driving-forces model on individual behavior in scenarios considering moving threat agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuying; Zhuang, Jun; Shen, Shifei; Wang, Jia

2017-09-01

The individual behavior model is a contributory factor to improve the accuracy of agent-based simulation in different scenarios. However, few studies have considered moving threat agents, which often occur in terrorist attacks caused by attackers with close-range weapons (e.g., sword, stick). At the same time, many existing behavior models lack validation from cases or experiments. This paper builds a new individual behavior model based on seven behavioral hypotheses. The driving-forces model is an extension of the classical social force model considering scenarios including moving threat agents. An experiment was conducted to validate the key components of the model. Then the model is compared with an advanced Elliptical Specification II social force model, by calculating the fitting errors between the simulated and experimental trajectories, and being applied to simulate a specific circumstance. Our results show that the driving-forces model reduced the fitting error by an average of 33.9% and the standard deviation by an average of 44.5%, which indicates the accuracy and stability of the model in the studied situation. The new driving-forces model could be used to simulate individual behavior when analyzing the risk of specific scenarios using agent-based simulation methods, such as risk analysis of close-range terrorist attacks in public places.

Using effort information with change-in-ratio data for population estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

1995-01-01

Most change-in-ratio (CIR) methods for estimating fish and wildlife population sizes have been based only on assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary among population subclasses. When information on sampling effort is available, it is also possible to derive CIR estimators based on assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary over time. This paper presents a generalization of previous CIR models that allows explicit consideration of a range of assumptions about the variation of encounter probabilities among subclasses and over time. Explicit estimators are derived under this model for specific sets of assumptions about the encounter probabilities. Numerical methods are presented for obtaining estimators under the full range of possible assumptions. Likelihood ratio tests for these assumptions are described. Emphasis is on obtaining estimators based on assumptions about variation of encounter probabilities over time.

A Novel Framework for Characterizing Exposure-Related Behaviors Using Agent-Based Models Embedded with Needs-Based Artificial Intelligence (CSSSA2016)

EPA Science Inventory

Descriptions of where and how individuals spend their time are important for characterizing exposures to chemicals in consumer products and in indoor environments. Herein we create an agent-based model (ABM) that is able to simulate longitudinal patterns in behaviors. By basing o...

The dynamics of team cognition: A process-oriented theory of knowledge emergence in teams.

PubMed

Grand, James A; Braun, Michael T; Kuljanin, Goran; Kozlowski, Steve W J; Chao, Georgia T

2016-10-01

Team cognition has been identified as a critical component of team performance and decision-making. However, theory and research in this domain continues to remain largely static; articulation and examination of the dynamic processes through which collectively held knowledge emerges from the individual- to the team-level is lacking. To address this gap, we advance and systematically evaluate a process-oriented theory of team knowledge emergence. First, we summarize the core concepts and dynamic mechanisms that underlie team knowledge-building and represent our theory of team knowledge emergence (Step 1). We then translate this narrative theory into a formal computational model that provides an explicit specification of how these core concepts and mechanisms interact to produce emergent team knowledge (Step 2). The computational model is next instantiated into an agent-based simulation to explore how the key generative process mechanisms described in our theory contribute to improved knowledge emergence in teams (Step 3). Results from the simulations demonstrate that agent teams generate collectively shared knowledge more effectively when members are capable of processing information more efficiently and when teams follow communication strategies that promote equal rates of information sharing across members. Lastly, we conduct an empirical experiment with real teams participating in a collective knowledge-building task to verify that promoting these processes in human teams also leads to improved team knowledge emergence (Step 4). Discussion focuses on implications of the theory for examining team cognition processes and dynamics as well as directions for future research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Evaluating the effect of human activity patterns on air pollution exposure using an integrated field-based and agent-based modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitz, Oliver; Beelen, Rob M. J.; de Bakker, Merijn P.; Karssenberg, Derek

2015-04-01

Constructing spatio-temporal numerical models to support risk assessment, such as assessing the exposure of humans to air pollution, often requires the integration of field-based and agent-based modelling approaches. Continuous environmental variables such as air pollution are best represented using the field-based approach which considers phenomena as continuous fields having attribute values at all locations. When calculating human exposure to such pollutants it is, however, preferable to consider the population as a set of individuals each with a particular activity pattern. This would allow to account for the spatio-temporal variation in a pollutant along the space-time paths travelled by individuals, determined, for example, by home and work locations, road network, and travel times. Modelling this activity pattern requires an agent-based or individual based modelling approach. In general, field- and agent-based models are constructed with the help of separate software tools, while both approaches should play together in an interacting way and preferably should be combined into one modelling framework, which would allow for efficient and effective implementation of models by domain specialists. To overcome this lack in integrated modelling frameworks, we aim at the development of concepts and software for an integrated field-based and agent-based modelling framework. Concepts merging field- and agent-based modelling were implemented by extending PCRaster (http://www.pcraster.eu), a field-based modelling library implemented in C++, with components for 1) representation of discrete, mobile, agents, 2) spatial networks and algorithms by integrating the NetworkX library (http://networkx.github.io), allowing therefore to calculate e.g. shortest routes or total transport costs between locations, and 3) functions for field-network interactions, allowing to assign field-based attribute values to networks (i.e. as edge weights), such as aggregated or averaged concentration values. We demonstrate the approach by using six land use regression (LUR) models developed in the ESCAPE (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects) project. These models calculate several air pollutants (e.g. NO2, NOx, PM2.5) for the entire Netherlands at a high (5 m) resolution. Using these air pollution maps, we compare exposure of individuals calculated at their x, y location of their home, their work place, and aggregated over the close surroundings of these locations. In addition, total exposure is accumulated over daily activity patterns, summing exposure at home, at the work place, and while travelling between home and workplace, by routing individuals over the Dutch road network, using the shortest route. Finally, we illustrate how routes can be calculated with the minimum total exposure (instead of shortest distance).

Petri Nets as Modeling Tool for Emergent Agents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bergman, Marto

2004-01-01

Emergent agents, those agents whose local interactions can cause unexpected global results, require a method of modeling that is both dynamic and structured Petri Nets, a modeling tool developed for dynamic discrete event system of mainly functional agents, provide this, and have the benefit of being an established tool. We present here the details of the modeling method here and discuss how to implement its use for modeling agent-based systems. Petri Nets have been used extensively in the modeling of functional agents, those agents who have defined purposes and whose actions should result in a know outcome. However, emergent agents, those agents who have a defined structure but whose interaction causes outcomes that are unpredictable, have not yet found a modeling style that suits them. A problem with formally modeling emergent agents that any formal modeling style usually expects to show the results of a problem and the results of problems studied using emergent agents are not apparent from the initial construction. However, the study of emergent agents still requires a method to analyze the agents themselves, and have sensible conversation about the differences and similarities between types of emergent agents. We attempt to correct this problem by applying Petri Nets to the characterization of emergent agents. In doing so, the emergent properties of these agents can be highlighted, and conversation about the nature and compatibility of the differing methods of agent creation can begin.

Biomass Scenario Model: BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bush, B.

2015-03-23

The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art fourth-generation model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, behavior, policy, and physical, technological, and economic constraints. The BSM uses system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It places a strong emphasis on themore » behavior and decision-making of various economic agents. The model treats the major infrastructure-compatible fuels. Scenario analysis based on the BSM shows that the biofuels industry tends not to rapidly thrive without significant external actions in the early years of its evolution. An initial focus for jumpstarting the industry typically has strongest results in the BSM in areas where effects of intervention have been identified to be multiplicative. In general, we find that policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain have significant impact in fostering the growth of the biofuels industry and that the production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.« less

Modelling the nonlinear behaviour of an underplatform damper test rig for turbine applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pesaresi, L.; Salles, L.; Jones, A.; Green, J. S.; Schwingshackl, C. W.

2017-02-01

Underplatform dampers (UPD) are commonly used in aircraft engines to mitigate the risk of high-cycle fatigue failure of turbine blades. The energy dissipated at the friction contact interface of the damper reduces the vibration amplitude significantly, and the couplings of the blades can also lead to significant shifts of the resonance frequencies of the bladed disk. The highly nonlinear behaviour of bladed discs constrained by UPDs requires an advanced modelling approach to ensure that the correct damper geometry is selected during the design of the turbine, and that no unexpected resonance frequencies and amplitudes will occur in operation. Approaches based on an explicit model of the damper in combination with multi-harmonic balance solvers have emerged as a promising way to predict the nonlinear behaviour of UPDs correctly, however rigorous experimental validations are required before approaches of this type can be used with confidence. In this study, a nonlinear analysis based on an updated explicit damper model having different levels of detail is performed, and the results are evaluated against a newly-developed UPD test rig. Detailed linear finite element models are used as input for the nonlinear analysis, allowing the inclusion of damper flexibility and inertia effects. The nonlinear friction interface between the blades and the damper is described with a dense grid of 3D friction contact elements which allow accurate capturing of the underlying nonlinear mechanism that drives the global nonlinear behaviour. The introduced explicit damper model showed a great dependence on the correct contact pressure distribution. The use of an accurate, measurement based, distribution, better matched the nonlinear dynamic behaviour of the test rig. Good agreement with the measured frequency response data could only be reached when the zero harmonic term (constant term) was included in the multi-harmonic expansion of the nonlinear problem, highlighting its importance when the contact interface experiences large normal load variation. The resulting numerical damper kinematics with strong translational and rotational motion, and the global blades frequency response were fully validated experimentally, showing the accuracy of the suggested high detailed explicit UPD modelling approach.

Agent-Based Models in Empirical Social Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bruch, Elizabeth; Atwell, Jon

2015-01-01

Agent-based modeling has become increasingly popular in recent years, but there is still no codified set of recommendations or practices for how to use these models within a program of empirical research. This article provides ideas and practical guidelines drawn from sociology, biology, computer science, epidemiology, and statistics. We first…

Model-based Utility Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibbard, Bill

2012-05-01

Orseau and Ring, as well as Dewey, have recently described problems, including self-delusion, with the behavior of agents using various definitions of utility functions. An agent's utility function is defined in terms of the agent's history of interactions with its environment. This paper argues, via two examples, that the behavior problems can be avoided by formulating the utility function in two steps: 1) inferring a model of the environment from interactions, and 2) computing utility as a function of the environment model. Basing a utility function on a model that the agent must learn implies that the utility function must initially be expressed in terms of specifications to be matched to structures in the learned model. These specifications constitute prior assumptions about the environment so this approach will not work with arbitrary environments. But the approach should work for agents designed by humans to act in the physical world. The paper also addresses the issue of self-modifying agents and shows that if provided with the possibility to modify their utility functions agents will not choose to do so, under some usual assumptions.

Remote Agent Demonstration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dorais, Gregory A.; Kurien, James; Rajan, Kanna

1999-01-01

We describe the computer demonstration of the Remote Agent Experiment (RAX). The Remote Agent is a high-level, model-based, autonomous control agent being validated on the NASA Deep Space 1 spacecraft.

A systematic approach for the location of hand sanitizer dispensers in hospitals.

PubMed

Cure, Laila; Van Enk, Richard; Tiong, Ewing

2014-09-01

Compliance with hand hygiene practices is directly affected by the accessibility and availability of cleaning agents. Nevertheless, the decision of where to locate these dispensers is often not explicitly or fully addressed in the literature. In this paper, we study the problem of selecting the locations to install alcohol-based hand sanitizer dispensers throughout a hospital unit as an indirect approach to maximize compliance with hand hygiene practices. We investigate the relevant criteria in selecting dispenser locations that promote hand hygiene compliance, propose metrics for the evaluation of various location configurations, and formulate a dispenser location optimization model that systematically incorporates such criteria. A complete methodology to collect data and obtain the model parameters is described. We illustrate the proposed approach using data from a general care unit at a collaborating hospital. A cost analysis was performed to study the trade-offs between usability and cost. The proposed methodology can help in evaluating the current location configuration, determining the need for change, and establishing the best possible configuration. It can be adapted to incorporate alternative metrics, tailored to different institutions and updated as needed with new internal policies or safety regulation.

Computational design of hepatitis C vaccines using empirical fitness landscapes and population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Gregory; Ferguson, Andrew

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) afflicts 170 million people and kills 350,000 annually. Vaccination offers the most realistic and cost effective hope of controlling this epidemic. Despite 25 years of research, no vaccine is available. A major obstacle is the virus' extreme genetic variability and rapid mutational escape from immune pressure. Improvements in the vaccine design process are urgently needed. Coupling data mining and maximum entropy inference, we have developed a computational approach to translate sequence databases into empirical fitness landscapes. These landscapes explicitly connect viral genotype to phenotypic fitness and reveal vulnerable targets that can be exploited to rationally design vaccines. These landscapes represent the mutational ''playing field'' over which the virus evolves. We have integrated them with agent-based models of the viral mutational and host immune response, establishing a data-driven multi-scale immune simulator. We have used this simulator to perform in silico screening of HCV immunogens to rationally design vaccines to both cripple viral fitness and block escape. By systematically identifying a small number of promising vaccine candidates, these models can accelerate the search for a vaccine by massively reducing the experimental search space.

Spreading of nonmotile bacteria on a hard agar plate: Comparison between agent-based and stochastic simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Navdeep; Ghosh, Pushpita; Perlekar, Prasad

2017-11-01

We study spreading of a nonmotile bacteria colony on a hard agar plate by using agent-based and continuum models. We show that the spreading dynamics depends on the initial nutrient concentration, the motility, and the inherent demographic noise. Population fluctuations are inherent in an agent-based model, whereas for the continuum model we model them by using a stochastic Langevin equation. We show that the intrinsic population fluctuations coupled with nonlinear diffusivity lead to a transition from a diffusion limited aggregation type of morphology to an Eden-like morphology on decreasing the initial nutrient concentration.

Toward Agent-Based Models of the Development And Evolution of Business Relations and Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkinson, Ian F.; Marks, Robert E.; Young, Louise

Firms achieve competitive advantage in part through the development of cooperative relations with other firms and organisations. We describe a program of research designed to map and model the development of cooperative inter-firm relations, including the processes and paths by which firms may evolve from adversarial to more cooperative relations. Narrative-event-history methods will be used to develop stylised histories of the emergence of business relations in various contexts and to identify relevant causal mechanisms to be included in the agent-based models of relationship and network evolution. The relationship histories will provide the means of assuring the agent-based models developed.

Agent-based game theory modeling for driverless vehicles at intersections.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-02-01

This report presents three research efforts that were published in various journals. The first research effort presents a reactive-driving agent based algorithm for modeling driver left turn gap acceptance behavior at signalized intersections. This m...

Constructing Agent Model for Virtual Training Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murakami, Yohei; Sugimoto, Yuki; Ishida, Toru

Constructing highly realistic agents is essential if agents are to be employed in virtual training systems. In training for collaboration based on face-to-face interaction, the generation of emotional expressions is one key. In training for guidance based on one-to-many interaction such as direction giving for evacuations, emotional expressions must be supplemented by diverse agent behaviors to make the training realistic. To reproduce diverse behavior, we characterize agents by using a various combinations of operation rules instantiated by the user operating the agent. To accomplish this goal, we introduce a user modeling method based on participatory simulations. These simulations enable us to acquire information observed by each user in the simulation and the operating history. Using these data and the domain knowledge including known operation rules, we can generate an explanation for each behavior. Moreover, the application of hypothetical reasoning, which offers consistent selection of hypotheses, to the generation of explanations allows us to use otherwise incompatible operation rules as domain knowledge. In order to validate the proposed modeling method, we apply it to the acquisition of an evacuee's model in a fire-drill experiment. We successfully acquire a subject's model corresponding to the results of an interview with the subject.

Slip Continuity in Explicit Crystal Plasticity Simulations Using Nonlocal Continuum and Semi-discrete Approaches

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

Based Micropolar Single Crystal Plasticity: Comparison of Multi - and Single Criterion Theories. J. Mech. Phys. Solids 2011, 59, 398–422. ALE3D ...element boundaries in a multi -step constitutive evaluation (Becker, 2011). The results showed the desired effects of smoothing the deformation field...Implementation The model was implemented in the large-scale parallel, explicit finite element code ALE3D (2012). The crystal plasticity

A fuzzy logic control in adjustable autonomy of a multi-agent system for an automated elderly movement monitoring application.

PubMed

Mostafa, Salama A; Mustapha, Aida; Mohammed, Mazin Abed; Ahmad, Mohd Sharifuddin; Mahmoud, Moamin A

2018-04-01

Autonomous agents are being widely used in many systems, such as ambient assisted-living systems, to perform tasks on behalf of humans. However, these systems usually operate in complex environments that entail uncertain, highly dynamic, or irregular workload. In such environments, autonomous agents tend to make decisions that lead to undesirable outcomes. In this paper, we propose a fuzzy-logic-based adjustable autonomy (FLAA) model to manage the autonomy of multi-agent systems that are operating in complex environments. This model aims to facilitate the autonomy management of agents and help them make competent autonomous decisions. The FLAA model employs fuzzy logic to quantitatively measure and distribute autonomy among several agents based on their performance. We implement and test this model in the Automated Elderly Movements Monitoring (AEMM-Care) system, which uses agents to monitor the daily movement activities of elderly users and perform fall detection and prevention tasks in a complex environment. The test results show that the FLAA model improves the accuracy and performance of these agents in detecting and preventing falls. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transient analysis of a thermal storage unit involving a phase change material

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griggs, E. I.; Pitts, D. R.; Humphries, W. R.

1974-01-01

The transient response of a single cell of a typical phase change material type thermal capacitor has been modeled using numerical conductive heat transfer techniques. The cell consists of a base plate, an insulated top, and two vertical walls (fins) forming a two-dimensional cavity filled with a phase change material. Both explicit and implicit numerical formulations are outlined. A mixed explicit-implicit scheme which treats the fin implicity while treating the phase change material explicitly is discussed. A band algorithmic scheme is used to reduce computer storage requirements for the implicit approach while retaining a relatively fine grid. All formulations are presented in dimensionless form thereby enabling application to geometrically similar problems. Typical parametric results are graphically presented for the case of melting with constant heat input to the base of the cell.

Content relatedness in the social web based on social explicit semantic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ntalianis, Klimis; Otterbacher, Jahna; Mastorakis, Nikolaos

2017-06-01

In this paper a novel content relatedness algorithm for social media content is proposed, based on the Explicit Semantic Analysis (ESA) technique. The proposed scheme takes into consideration social interactions. In particular starting from the vector space representation model, similarity is expressed by a summation of term weight products. In this paper, term weights are estimated by a social computing method, where the strength of each term is calculated by the attention the terms receives. For this reason each post is split into two parts, title and comments area, while attention is defined by the number of social interactions such as likes and shares. The overall approach is named Social Explicit Semantic Analysis. Experimental results on real data show the advantages and limitations of the proposed approach, while an initial comparison between ESA and S-ESA is very promising.

Multiagent optimization system for solving the traveling salesman problem (TSP).

PubMed

Xie, Xiao-Feng; Liu, Jiming

2009-04-01

The multiagent optimization system (MAOS) is a nature-inspired method, which supports cooperative search by the self-organization of a group of compact agents situated in an environment with certain sharing public knowledge. Moreover, each agent in MAOS is an autonomous entity with personal declarative memory and behavioral components. In this paper, MAOS is refined for solving the traveling salesman problem (TSP), which is a classic hard computational problem. Based on a simplified MAOS version, in which each agent manipulates on extremely limited declarative knowledge, some simple and efficient components for solving TSP, including two improving heuristics based on a generalized edge assembly recombination, are implemented. Compared with metaheuristics in adaptive memory programming, MAOS is particularly suitable for supporting cooperative search. The experimental results on two TSP benchmark data sets show that MAOS is competitive as compared with some state-of-the-art algorithms, including the Lin-Kernighan-Helsgaun, IBGLK, PHGA, etc., although MAOS does not use any explicit local search during the runtime. The contributions of MAOS components are investigated. It indicates that certain clues can be positive for making suitable selections before time-consuming computation. More importantly, it shows that the cooperative search of agents can achieve an overall good performance with a macro rule in the switch mode, which deploys certain alternate search rules with the offline performance in negative correlations. Using simple alternate rules may prevent the high difficulty of seeking an omnipotent rule that is efficient for a large data set.

Distributed Cooperation Solution Method of Complex System Based on MAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weijin, Jiang; Yuhui, Xu

To adapt the model in reconfiguring fault diagnosing to dynamic environment and the needs of solving the tasks of complex system fully, the paper introduced multi-Agent and related technology to the complicated fault diagnosis, an integrated intelligent control system is studied in this paper. Based on the thought of the structure of diagnostic decision and hierarchy in modeling, based on multi-layer decomposition strategy of diagnosis task, a multi-agent synchronous diagnosis federation integrated different knowledge expression modes and inference mechanisms are presented, the functions of management agent, diagnosis agent and decision agent are analyzed, the organization and evolution of agents in the system are proposed, and the corresponding conflict resolution algorithm in given, Layered structure of abstract agent with public attributes is build. System architecture is realized based on MAS distributed layered blackboard. The real world application shows that the proposed control structure successfully solves the fault diagnose problem of the complex plant, and the special advantage in the distributed domain.

SEARCH: Spatially Explicit Animal Response to Composition of Habitat.

PubMed

Pauli, Benjamin P; McCann, Nicholas P; Zollner, Patrick A; Cummings, Robert; Gilbert, Jonathan H; Gustafson, Eric J

2013-01-01

Complex decisions dramatically affect animal dispersal and space use. Dispersing individuals respond to a combination of fine-scale environmental stimuli and internal attributes. Individual-based modeling offers a valuable approach for the investigation of such interactions because it combines the heterogeneity of animal behaviors with spatial detail. Most individual-based models (IBMs), however, vastly oversimplify animal behavior and such behavioral minimalism diminishes the value of these models. We present program SEARCH (Spatially Explicit Animal Response to Composition of Habitat), a spatially explicit, individual-based, population model of animal dispersal through realistic landscapes. SEARCH uses values in Geographic Information System (GIS) maps to apply rules that animals follow during dispersal, thus allowing virtual animals to respond to fine-scale features of the landscape and maintain a detailed memory of areas sensed during movement. SEARCH also incorporates temporally dynamic landscapes so that the environment to which virtual animals respond can change during the course of a simulation. Animals in SEARCH are behaviorally dynamic and able to respond to stimuli based upon their individual experiences. Therefore, SEARCH is able to model behavioral traits of dispersing animals at fine scales and with many dynamic aspects. Such added complexity allows investigation of unique ecological questions. To illustrate SEARCH's capabilities, we simulated case studies using three mammals. We examined the impact of seasonally variable food resources on the weight distribution of dispersing raccoons (Procyon lotor), the effect of temporally dynamic mortality pressure in combination with various levels of behavioral responsiveness in eastern chipmunks (Tamias striatus), and the impact of behavioral plasticity and home range selection on disperser mortality and weight change in virtual American martens (Martes americana). These simulations highlight the relevance of SEARCH for a variety of applications and illustrate benefits it can provide for conservation planning.

DISCRETE VOLUME-ELEMENT METHOD FOR NETWORK WATER- QUALITY MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

An explicit dynamic water-quality modeling algorithm is developed for tracking dissolved substances in water-distribution networks. The algorithm is based on a mass-balance relation within pipes that considers both advective transport and reaction kinetics. Complete mixing of m...

HexSim: a modeling environment for ecology and conservation.

EPA Science Inventory

HexSim is a powerful and flexible new spatially-explicit, individual based modeling environment intended for use in ecology, conservation, genetics, epidemiology, toxicology, and other disciplines. We describe HexSim, illustrate past applications that contributed to our >10 year ...

Implicit and explicit weight bias in a national sample of 4,732 medical students: the medical student CHANGES study.

PubMed

Phelan, Sean M; Dovidio, John F; Puhl, Rebecca M; Burgess, Diana J; Nelson, David B; Yeazel, Mark W; Hardeman, Rachel; Perry, Sylvia; van Ryn, Michelle

2014-04-01

To examine the magnitude of explicit and implicit weight biases compared to biases against other groups; and identify student factors predicting bias in a large national sample of medical students. A web-based survey was completed by 4,732 1st year medical students from 49 medical schools as part of a longitudinal study of medical education. The survey included a validated measure of implicit weight bias, the implicit association test, and 2 measures of explicit bias: a feeling thermometer and the anti-fat attitudes test. A majority of students exhibited implicit (74%) and explicit (67%) weight bias. Implicit weight bias scores were comparable to reported bias against racial minorities. Explicit attitudes were more negative toward obese people than toward racial minorities, gays, lesbians, and poor people. In multivariate regression models, implicit and explicit weight bias was predicted by lower BMI, male sex, and non-Black race. Either implicit or explicit bias was also predicted by age, SES, country of birth, and specialty choice. Implicit and explicit weight bias is common among 1st year medical students, and varies across student factors. Future research should assess implications of biases and test interventions to reduce their impact. Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.

Explicit formulation of second and third order optical nonlinearity in the FDTD framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varin, Charles; Emms, Rhys; Bart, Graeme; Fennel, Thomas; Brabec, Thomas

2018-01-01

The finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method is a flexible and powerful technique for rigorously solving Maxwell's equations. However, three-dimensional optical nonlinearity in current commercial and research FDTD softwares requires solving iteratively an implicit form of Maxwell's equations over the entire numerical space and at each time step. Reaching numerical convergence demands significant computational resources and practical implementation often requires major modifications to the core FDTD engine. In this paper, we present an explicit method to include second and third order optical nonlinearity in the FDTD framework based on a nonlinear generalization of the Lorentz dispersion model. A formal derivation of the nonlinear Lorentz dispersion equation is equally provided, starting from the quantum mechanical equations describing nonlinear optics in the two-level approximation. With the proposed approach, numerical integration of optical nonlinearity and dispersion in FDTD is intuitive, transparent, and fully explicit. A strong-field formulation is also proposed, which opens an interesting avenue for FDTD-based modelling of the extreme nonlinear optics phenomena involved in laser filamentation and femtosecond micromachining of dielectrics.

Evaluation of climate-related carbon turnover processes in global vegetation models for boreal and temperate forests.

PubMed

Thurner, Martin; Beer, Christian; Ciais, Philippe; Friend, Andrew D; Ito, Akihiko; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R; Quegan, Shaun; Rademacher, Tim T; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Tum, Markus; Wiltshire, Andy; Carvalhais, Nuno

2017-08-01

Turnover concepts in state-of-the-art global vegetation models (GVMs) account for various processes, but are often highly simplified and may not include an adequate representation of the dominant processes that shape vegetation carbon turnover rates in real forest ecosystems at a large spatial scale. Here, we evaluate vegetation carbon turnover processes in GVMs participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT) using estimates of vegetation carbon turnover rate (k) derived from a combination of remote sensing based products of biomass and net primary production (NPP). We find that current model limitations lead to considerable biases in the simulated biomass and in k (severe underestimations by all models except JeDi and VISIT compared to observation-based average k), likely contributing to underestimation of positive feedbacks of the northern forest carbon balance to climate change caused by changes in forest mortality. A need for improved turnover concepts related to frost damage, drought, and insect outbreaks to better reproduce observation-based spatial patterns in k is identified. As direct frost damage effects on mortality are usually not accounted for in these GVMs, simulated relationships between k and winter length in boreal forests are not consistent between different regions and strongly biased compared to the observation-based relationships. Some models show a response of k to drought in temperate forests as a result of impacts of water availability on NPP, growth efficiency or carbon balance dependent mortality as well as soil or litter moisture effects on leaf turnover or fire. However, further direct drought effects such as carbon starvation (only in HYBRID4) or hydraulic failure are usually not taken into account by the investigated GVMs. While they are considered dominant large-scale mortality agents, mortality mechanisms related to insects and pathogens are not explicitly treated in these models. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Efficient Translation of LTL Formulae into Buchi Automata

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giannakopoulou, Dimitra; Lerda, Flavio

2001-01-01

Model checking is a fully automated technique for checking that a system satisfies a set of required properties. With explicit-state model checkers, properties are typically defined in linear-time temporal logic (LTL), and are translated into B chi automata in order to be checked. This report presents how we have combined and improved existing techniques to obtain an efficient LTL to B chi automata translator. In particular, we optimize the core of existing tableau-based approaches to generate significantly smaller automata. Our approach has been implemented and is being released as part of the Java PathFinder software (JPF), an explicit state model checker under development at the NASA Ames Research Center.

Enhancing Pre-Service Physics Teachers' Perceived Self-Efficacy of Argumentation-Based Pedagogy through Modelling and Mastery Experiences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ogan-Bekiroglu, Feral; Aydeniz, Mehmet

2013-01-01

This study explored the impact of explicit instruction on argumentation-based pedagogy, coupled with modelling and hands-on learning activities on pre-service physics teachers' perceived self-efficacy to teach science through argumentation. Participants consisted of 24 pre-service physics teachers attending an established teacher education program…

Measuring crown dynamics of longleaf pine in the sandhills of Eglin Air Force Base

Treesearch

Matt Anderson; Greg L. Somers; W. Rick Smith; Mickey Freeland; Donna Ruth

1998-01-01

The USDA Forest Service SRS, in cooperation with Auburn University, is developing an individual tree, spatially explicit, and btoiogicaily based growth model for natural iongieaf pine sands at Eglin Air Force Base in Florida. The goal of the growth model is to provide a tool for the land managers to compare silvicultural practices effects on the light and water...

Learning to Mean in Spanish Writing: A Case Study of a Genre-Based Pedagogy for Standards-Based Writing Instruction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Troyan, Francis J.

2016-01-01

This case study reports the results of a genre-based approach, which was used to explicitly teach the touristic landmark description to fourth-grade students of Spanish as a foreign language. The instructional model and unit of instruction were informed by the pedagogies of the Sydney School of Linguistics and an instructional model for…

Cultural Geography Modeling and Analysis in Helmand Province

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-10-01

the application of an agent-based model called “Cultural Geography” to represent the civilian populace. This project uses a multi-agent system ...represent the civilian populace. This project uses a multi-agent system consisting of an environment, agents, objects (things), operations that can be...environments[1]. The model is patterned after the conflict eco- system described by Kilcullen[2] in an attempt to capture the complexities of irregular

Explicit and implicit springback simulation in sheet metal forming using fully coupled ductile damage and distortional hardening model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yetna n'jock, M.; Houssem, B.; Labergere, C.; Saanouni, K.; Zhenming, Y.

2018-05-01

The springback is an important phenomenon which accompanies the forming of metallic sheets especially for high strength materials. A quantitative prediction of springback becomes very important for newly developed material with high mechanical characteristics. In this work, a numerical methodology is developed to quantify this undesirable phenomenon. This methodoly is based on the use of both explicit and implicit finite element solvers of Abaqus®. The most important ingredient of this methodology consists on the use of highly predictive mechanical model. A thermodynamically-consistent, non-associative and fully anisotropic elastoplastic constitutive model strongly coupled with isotropic ductile damage and accounting for distortional hardening is then used. An algorithm for local integration of the complete set of the constitutive equations is developed. This algorithm considers the rotated frame formulation (RFF) to ensure the incremental objectivity of the model in the framework of finite strains. This algorithm is implemented in both explicit (Abaqus/Explicit®) and implicit (Abaqus/Standard®) solvers of Abaqus® through the users routine VUMAT and UMAT respectively. The implicit solver of Abaqus® has been used to study spingback as it is generally a quasi-static unloading. In order to compare the methods `efficiency, the explicit method (Dynamic Relaxation Method) proposed by Rayleigh has been also used for springback prediction. The results obtained within U draw/bending benchmark are studied, discussed and compared with experimental results as reference. Finally, the purpose of this work is to evaluate the reliability of different methods predict efficiently springback in sheet metal forming.

Formalizing the role of agent-based modeling in causal inference and epidemiology.

PubMed

Marshall, Brandon D L; Galea, Sandro

2015-01-15

Calls for the adoption of complex systems approaches, including agent-based modeling, in the field of epidemiology have largely centered on the potential for such methods to examine complex disease etiologies, which are characterized by feedback behavior, interference, threshold dynamics, and multiple interacting causal effects. However, considerable theoretical and practical issues impede the capacity of agent-based methods to examine and evaluate causal effects and thus illuminate new areas for intervention. We build on this work by describing how agent-based models can be used to simulate counterfactual outcomes in the presence of complexity. We show that these models are of particular utility when the hypothesized causal mechanisms exhibit a high degree of interdependence between multiple causal effects and when interference (i.e., one person's exposure affects the outcome of others) is present and of intrinsic scientific interest. Although not without challenges, agent-based modeling (and complex systems methods broadly) represent a promising novel approach to identify and evaluate complex causal effects, and they are thus well suited to complement other modern epidemiologic methods of etiologic inquiry. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Corruption of accuracy and efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation by inaccurate numerical implementation of conceptual hydrologic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoups, G.; Vrugt, J. A.; Fenicia, F.; van de Giesen, N. C.

2010-10-01

Conceptual rainfall-runoff models have traditionally been applied without paying much attention to numerical errors induced by temporal integration of water balance dynamics. Reliance on first-order, explicit, fixed-step integration methods leads to computationally cheap simulation models that are easy to implement. Computational speed is especially desirable for estimating parameter and predictive uncertainty using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Confirming earlier work of Kavetski et al. (2003), we show here that the computational speed of first-order, explicit, fixed-step integration methods comes at a cost: for a case study with a spatially lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, it introduces artificial bimodality in the marginal posterior parameter distributions, which is not present in numerically accurate implementations of the same model. The resulting effects on MCMC simulation include (1) inconsistent estimates of posterior parameter and predictive distributions, (2) poor performance and slow convergence of the MCMC algorithm, and (3) unreliable convergence diagnosis using the Gelman-Rubin statistic. We studied several alternative numerical implementations to remedy these problems, including various adaptive-step finite difference schemes and an operator splitting method. Our results show that adaptive-step, second-order methods, based on either explicit finite differencing or operator splitting with analytical integration, provide the best alternative for accurate and efficient MCMC simulation. Fixed-step or adaptive-step implicit methods may also be used for increased accuracy, but they cannot match the efficiency of adaptive-step explicit finite differencing or operator splitting. Of the latter two, explicit finite differencing is more generally applicable and is preferred if the individual hydrologic flux laws cannot be integrated analytically, as the splitting method then loses its advantage.

Economic communication model set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zvereva, Olga M.; Berg, Dmitry B.

2017-06-01

This paper details findings from the research work targeted at economic communications investigation with agent-based models usage. The agent-based model set was engineered to simulate economic communications. Money in the form of internal and external currencies was introduced into the models to support exchanges in communications. Every model, being based on the general concept, has its own peculiarities in algorithm and input data set since it was engineered to solve the specific problem. Several and different origin data sets were used in experiments: theoretic sets were estimated on the basis of static Leontief's equilibrium equation and the real set was constructed on the basis of statistical data. While simulation experiments, communication process was observed in dynamics, and system macroparameters were estimated. This research approved that combination of an agent-based and mathematical model can cause a synergetic effect.

Socio-Ecohydrologic Agents And Services: Integrating Human And Natural Components To Address Coupled System Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavao-zuckerman, M.; Pope, A.; Chan, D.; Curl, K.; Gimblett, H. R.; Hough, M.; House-Peters, L.; Lee, R.; Scott, C. A.

2012-12-01

Riparian corridors in arid regions are highly valued for their relative scarcity, and because healthy riparian systems support high levels of biodiversity, can meet human demand for water and water-related resources and functions. Our team is taking a transdiciplinary social-ecological systems approach to assessing riparian corridor resilience in two watersheds (the San Pedro River in USA and Mexico, and the Rio San Miguel in Mexico) through a project funded by the NSF CNH program ("Strengthening Resilience of Arid Region Riparian Corridors"). Multiple perspectives are integrated in the project, including hydrology, ecology, institutional dynamics, and decision making (at the level of both policy and individual choice), as well as the perspectives of various stakeholder groups and individuals in the watersheds. Here we discuss initial findings that center around linking changes in ecohydrology and livelihoods related to decisions in response to climatic, ecological, and social change. The research team is implementing two approaches to integrate the disparate disciplines participating in the research (and the varied perspectives among the stakeholders in this binational riparian context): (1) ecosystem service assessment, and (2) agent based model simulation. We are developing an ecosystem service perspective that provides a bridge between ecological dynamics in the landscape and varied stakeholder perspectives on the implications of ecohydrology for well-being (economic, cultural, ecological). Services are linked on one hand to the spatial patterns of traits of individuals within species (allowing a more predictive application of ecosystem services as they vary with community change in time), and to stakeholder perspectives (facilitating integration of ecosystem services into our understanding of decision making processes) in a case study in the San Pedro River National Conservation Area. The agent- based model (ABM) approach incorporates the influence of human decision-making on spatially-explicit landscapes in a mechanistic way, taking into account social interaction, adaptation, and decision-making at different levels, allowing individual stakeholders to make decisions based on their unique perceptions of their environment, be it economic, social, or ecological awareness. Initial parameterization of the ABM proceeds from a case study centered in the town of Rayón, Sonora, Mexico, where semi-structured interviews were used to elicit perceptions by water resource users of CNH function, change, and solutions relating to livelihood changes in response to several drivers. In both case studies, we see the potential and limitations for an approach to adaptive management and decision support related to water resources that links ecosystem services and agent-based modeling. Methodologically, synthetic approaches such as these may allow coupling of systems for improved assessment and analysis, while at the same time lack a connection to the perspectives of water users and managers on the ground. There is thus potential for a either a loss of system resilience in the face of external change, or an opportunity to increase system resilience by building off perspectives already in place within these coupled socio-ecohydrologic systems.

Explicitly represented polygon wall boundary model for the explicit MPS method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitsume, Naoto; Yoshimura, Shinobu; Murotani, Kohei; Yamada, Tomonori

2015-05-01

This study presents an accurate and robust boundary model, the explicitly represented polygon (ERP) wall boundary model, to treat arbitrarily shaped wall boundaries in the explicit moving particle simulation (E-MPS) method, which is a mesh-free particle method for strong form partial differential equations. The ERP model expresses wall boundaries as polygons, which are explicitly represented without using the distance function. These are derived so that for viscous fluids, and with less computational cost, they satisfy the Neumann boundary condition for the pressure and the slip/no-slip condition on the wall surface. The proposed model is verified and validated by comparing computed results with the theoretical solution, results obtained by other models, and experimental results. Two simulations with complex boundary movements are conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the E-MPS method to the ERP model.

Quantitative Agent Based Model of User Behavior in an Internet Discussion Forum

PubMed Central

Sobkowicz, Pawel

2013-01-01

The paper presents an agent based simulation of opinion evolution, based on a nonlinear emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) individual dynamics, to an actual Internet discussion forum. The goal is to reproduce the results of two-year long observations and analyses of the user communication behavior and of the expressed opinions and emotions, via simulations using an agent based model. The model allowed to derive various characteristics of the forum, including the distribution of user activity and popularity (outdegree and indegree), the distribution of length of dialogs between the participants, their political sympathies and the emotional content and purpose of the comments. The parameters used in the model have intuitive meanings, and can be translated into psychological observables. PMID:24324606

Agent-based modeling of the spread of influenza-like illness in an emergency department: a simulation study.

PubMed

Laskowski, Marek; Demianyk, Bryan C P; Witt, Julia; Mukhi, Shamir N; Friesen, Marcia R; McLeod, Robert D

2011-11-01

The objective of this paper was to develop an agent-based modeling framework in order to simulate the spread of influenza virus infection on a layout based on a representative hospital emergency department in Winnipeg, Canada. In doing so, the study complements mathematical modeling techniques for disease spread, as well as modeling applications focused on the spread of antibiotic-resistant nosocomial infections in hospitals. Twenty different emergency department scenarios were simulated, with further simulation of four infection control strategies. The agent-based modeling approach represents systems modeling, in which the emergency department was modeled as a collection of agents (patients and healthcare workers) and their individual characteristics, behaviors, and interactions. The framework was coded in C++ using Qt4 libraries running under the Linux operating system. A simple ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was used to analyze the data, in which the percentage of patients that became infected in one day within the simulation was the dependent variable. The results suggest that within the given instance context, patient-oriented infection control policies (alternate treatment streams, masking symptomatic patients) tend to have a larger effect than policies that target healthcare workers. The agent-based modeling framework is a flexible tool that can be made to reflect any given environment; it is also a decision support tool for practitioners and policymakers to assess the relative impact of infection control strategies. The framework illuminates scenarios worthy of further investigation, as well as counterintuitive findings.

Model-Drive Architecture for Agent-Based Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gradanin, Denis; Singh, H. Lally; Bohner, Shawn A.; Hinchey, Michael G.

2004-01-01

The Model Driven Architecture (MDA) approach uses a platform-independent model to define system functionality, or requirements, using some specification language. The requirements are then translated to a platform-specific model for implementation. An agent architecture based on the human cognitive model of planning, the Cognitive Agent Architecture (Cougaar) is selected for the implementation platform. The resulting Cougaar MDA prescribes certain kinds of models to be used, how those models may be prepared and the relationships of the different kinds of models. Using the existing Cougaar architecture, the level of application composition is elevated from individual components to domain level model specifications in order to generate software artifacts. The software artifacts generation is based on a metamodel. Each component maps to a UML structured component which is then converted into multiple artifacts: Cougaar/Java code, documentation, and test cases.

A general science-based framework for dynamical spatio-temporal models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wikle, C.K.; Hooten, M.B.

2010-01-01

Spatio-temporal statistical models are increasingly being used across a wide variety of scientific disciplines to describe and predict spatially-explicit processes that evolve over time. Correspondingly, in recent years there has been a significant amount of research on new statistical methodology for such models. Although descriptive models that approach the problem from the second-order (covariance) perspective are important, and innovative work is being done in this regard, many real-world processes are dynamic, and it can be more efficient in some cases to characterize the associated spatio-temporal dependence by the use of dynamical models. The chief challenge with the specification of such dynamical models has been related to the curse of dimensionality. Even in fairly simple linear, first-order Markovian, Gaussian error settings, statistical models are often over parameterized. Hierarchical models have proven invaluable in their ability to deal to some extent with this issue by allowing dependency among groups of parameters. In addition, this framework has allowed for the specification of science based parameterizations (and associated prior distributions) in which classes of deterministic dynamical models (e. g., partial differential equations (PDEs), integro-difference equations (IDEs), matrix models, and agent-based models) are used to guide specific parameterizations. Most of the focus for the application of such models in statistics has been in the linear case. The problems mentioned above with linear dynamic models are compounded in the case of nonlinear models. In this sense, the need for coherent and sensible model parameterizations is not only helpful, it is essential. Here, we present an overview of a framework for incorporating scientific information to motivate dynamical spatio-temporal models. First, we illustrate the methodology with the linear case. We then develop a general nonlinear spatio-temporal framework that we call general quadratic nonlinearity and demonstrate that it accommodates many different classes of scientific-based parameterizations as special cases. The model is presented in a hierarchical Bayesian framework and is illustrated with examples from ecology and oceanography. ?? 2010 Sociedad de Estad??stica e Investigaci??n Operativa.

Modeling fuels and fire effects in 3D: Model description and applications

Treesearch

Francois Pimont; Russell Parsons; Eric Rigolot; Francois de Coligny; Jean-Luc Dupuy; Philippe Dreyfus; Rodman R. Linn

2016-01-01

Scientists and managers critically need ways to assess how fuel treatments alter fire behavior, yet few tools currently exist for this purpose.We present a spatially-explicit-fuel-modeling system, FuelManager, which models fuels, vegetation growth, fire behavior (using a physics-based model, FIRETEC), and fire effects. FuelManager's flexible approach facilitates...

Systems Modeling at Multiple Levels of Regulation: Linking Systems and Genetic Networks to Spatially Explicit Plant Populations

PubMed Central

Kitchen, James L.; Allaby, Robin G.

2013-01-01

Selection and adaptation of individuals to their underlying environments are highly dynamical processes, encompassing interactions between the individual and its seasonally changing environment, synergistic or antagonistic interactions between individuals and interactions amongst the regulatory genes within the individual. Plants are useful organisms to study within systems modeling because their sedentary nature simplifies interactions between individuals and the environment, and many important plant processes such as germination or flowering are dependent on annual cycles which can be disrupted by climate behavior. Sedentism makes plants relevant candidates for spatially explicit modeling that is tied in with dynamical environments. We propose that in order to fully understand the complexities behind plant adaptation, a system that couples aspects from systems biology with population and landscape genetics is required. A suitable system could be represented by spatially explicit individual-based models where the virtual individuals are located within time-variable heterogeneous environments and contain mutable regulatory gene networks. These networks could directly interact with the environment, and should provide a useful approach to studying plant adaptation. PMID:27137364

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions Based on a Bank of Norm-Inequality-Constrained Epoch-State Filters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. R.; Markley, F. L.; Alfriend, K. T.; Wright, C.; Arcido, J.

2011-01-01

Sequential probability ratio tests explicitly allow decision makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models 1he null hypothesis 1ha1 the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming highly-elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

The discrepancy between implicit and explicit attitudes in predicting disinhibited eating.

PubMed

Goldstein, Stephanie P; Forman, Evan M; Meiran, Nachshon; Herbert, James D; Juarascio, Adrienne S; Butryn, Meghan L

2014-01-01

Disinhibited eating (i.e., the tendency to overeat, despite intentions not to do so, in the presence of palatable foods or other cues such as emotional stress) is strongly linked with obesity and appears to be associated with both implicit (automatic) and explicit (deliberative) food attitudes. Prior research suggests that a large discrepancy between implicit and explicit food attitudes may contribute to greater levels of disinhibited eating; however this theory has not been directly tested. The current study examined whether the discrepancy between implicit and explicit attitudes towards chocolate could predict both lab-based and self-reported disinhibited eating of chocolate. Results revealed that, whereas neither implicit nor explicit attitudes alone predicted disinhibited eating, absolute attitude discrepancy positively predicted chocolate consumption. Impulsivity moderated this effect, such that discrepancy was less predictive of disinhibited eating for those who exhibited lower levels of impulsivity. The results align with the meta-cognitive model to indicate that attitude discrepancy may be involved in overeating. © 2013.

A dependency-based modelling mechanism for problem solving

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

London, P.

1978-01-01

The paper develops a technique of dependency net modeling which relies on an explicit representation of justifications for beliefs held by the problem solver. Using these justifications, the modeling mechanism is able to determine the relevant lines of inference to pursue during problem solving. Three particular problem-solving difficulties which may be handled by the dependency-based technique are discussed: (1) subgoal violation detection, (2) description binding, and (3) maintaining a consistent world model.

Safe motion planning for mobile agents: A model of reactive planning for multiple mobile agents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fujimura, Kikuo.

1990-01-01

The problem of motion planning for multiple mobile agents is studied. Each planning agent independently plans its own action based on its map which contains a limited information about the environment. In an environment where more than one mobile agent interacts, the motions of the robots are uncertain and dynamic. A model for reactive agents is described and simulation results are presented to show their behavior patterns. 18 refs., 2 figs.

An Agent-Based Model of New Venture Creation: Conceptual Design for Simulating Entrepreneurship

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Provance, Mike; Collins, Andrew; Carayannis, Elias

2012-01-01

There is a growing debate over the means by which regions can foster the growth of entrepreneurial activity in order to stimulate recovery and growth of their economies. On one side, agglomeration theory suggests the regions grow because of strong clusters that foster knowledge spillover locally; on the other side, the entrepreneurial action camp argues that innovative business models are generated by entrepreneurs with unique market perspectives who draw on knowledge from more distant domains. We will show you the design for a novel agent-based model of new venture creation that will demonstrate the relationship between agglomeration and action. The primary focus of this model is information exchange as the medium for these agent interactions. Our modeling and simulation study proposes to reveal interesting relationships in these perspectives, offer a foundation on which these disparate theories from economics and sociology can find common ground, and expand the use of agent-based modeling into entrepreneurship research.

Addressing the translational dilemma: dynamic knowledge representation of inflammation using agent-based modeling.

PubMed

An, Gary; Christley, Scott

2012-01-01

Given the panoply of system-level diseases that result from disordered inflammation, such as sepsis, atherosclerosis, cancer, and autoimmune disorders, understanding and characterizing the inflammatory response is a key target of biomedical research. Untangling the complex behavioral configurations associated with a process as ubiquitous as inflammation represents a prototype of the translational dilemma: the ability to translate mechanistic knowledge into effective therapeutics. A critical failure point in the current research environment is a throughput bottleneck at the level of evaluating hypotheses of mechanistic causality; these hypotheses represent the key step toward the application of knowledge for therapy development and design. Addressing the translational dilemma will require utilizing the ever-increasing power of computers and computational modeling to increase the efficiency of the scientific method in the identification and evaluation of hypotheses of mechanistic causality. More specifically, development needs to focus on facilitating the ability of non-computer trained biomedical researchers to utilize and instantiate their knowledge in dynamic computational models. This is termed "dynamic knowledge representation." Agent-based modeling is an object-oriented, discrete-event, rule-based simulation method that is well suited for biomedical dynamic knowledge representation. Agent-based modeling has been used in the study of inflammation at multiple scales. The ability of agent-based modeling to encompass multiple scales of biological process as well as spatial considerations, coupled with an intuitive modeling paradigm, suggest that this modeling framework is well suited for addressing the translational dilemma. This review describes agent-based modeling, gives examples of its applications in the study of inflammation, and introduces a proposed general expansion of the use of modeling and simulation to augment the generation and evaluation of knowledge by the biomedical research community at large.

A Primer for Agent-Based Simulation and Modeling in Transportation Applications

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) methods have been applied in a spectrum of research domains. This primer focuses on ABMS in the transportation interdisciplinary domain, describes the basic concepts of ABMS and the recent progress of ABMS i...

Scales and erosion

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

There is a need to develop scale explicit understanding of erosion to overcome existing conceptual and methodological flaws in our modelling methods currently applied to understand the process of erosion, transport and deposition at the catchment scale. These models need to be based on a sound under...

AUTOMATED GEOSPATIAL WATERSHED ASSESSMENT: A GIS-BASED HYDROLOGIC MODELING TOOL

EPA Science Inventory

Planning and assessment in land and water resource management are evolving toward complex, spatially explicit regional assessments. These problems have to be addressed with distributed models that can compute runoff and erosion at different spatial and temporal scales. The extens...

Enhanced Estimation of Terrestrial Loadings for TMDLs: Normalization Approach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

TMDL implementation plans to remediate pathogen-impaired streams are usually based on deterministic terrestrial fate and transport (DTFT) models. A novel protocol is proposed that can effectively, efficiently, and explicitly capture the predictive uncertainty of DTFT models used to establish terres...

Interacting with an artificial partner: modeling the role of emotional aspects.

PubMed

Cattinelli, Isabella; Goldwurm, Massimiliano; Borghese, N Alberto

2008-12-01

In this paper we introduce a simple model based on probabilistic finite state automata to describe an emotional interaction between a robot and a human user, or between simulated agents. Based on the agent's personality, attitude, and nature, and on the emotional inputs it receives, the model will determine the next emotional state displayed by the agent itself. The probabilistic and time-varying nature of the model yields rich and dynamic interactions, and an autonomous adaptation to the interlocutor. In addition, a reinforcement learning technique is applied to have one agent drive its partner's behavior toward desired states. The model may also be used as a tool for behavior analysis, by extracting high probability patterns of interaction and by resorting to the ergodic properties of Markov chains.

Modeling Wood Encroachment in Abandoned Grasslands in the Eifel National Park – Model Description and Testing

PubMed Central

Hudjetz, Silvana; Lennartz, Gottfried; Krämer, Klara; Roß-Nickoll, Martina; Gergs, André; Preuss, Thomas G.

2014-01-01

The degradation of natural and semi-natural landscapes has become a matter of global concern. In Germany, semi-natural grasslands belong to the most species-rich habitat types but have suffered heavily from changes in land use. After abandonment, the course of succession at a specific site is often difficult to predict because many processes interact. In order to support decision making when managing semi-natural grasslands in the Eifel National Park, we built the WoodS-Model (Woodland Succession Model). A multimodeling approach was used to integrate vegetation dynamics in both the herbaceous and shrub/tree layer. The cover of grasses and herbs was simulated in a compartment model, whereas bushes and trees were modelled in an individual-based manner. Both models worked and interacted in a spatially explicit, raster-based landscape. We present here the model description, parameterization and testing. We show highly detailed projections of the succession of a semi-natural grassland including the influence of initial vegetation composition, neighborhood interactions and ungulate browsing. We carefully weighted the single processes against each other and their relevance for landscape development under different scenarios, while explicitly considering specific site conditions. Model evaluation revealed that the model is able to emulate successional patterns as observed in the field as well as plausible results for different population densities of red deer. Important neighborhood interactions such as seed dispersal, the protection of seedlings from browsing ungulates by thorny bushes, and the inhibition of wood encroachment by the herbaceous layer, have been successfully reproduced. Therefore, not only a detailed model but also detailed initialization turned out to be important for spatially explicit projections of a given site. The advantage of the WoodS-Model is that it integrates these many mutually interacting processes of succession. PMID:25494057

Geographically explicit urban land use change scenarios for Mega cities: a case study in Tokyo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamagata, Y.; Bagan, H.; Seya, H.; Nakamichi, K.

2010-12-01

In preparation for the IPCC 5th assessment report, the international modeling community is developing four Representative Concentration Paths employing the scenarios developed by four different Integrated Assessment Models. These RCPs will be employed as an input to climate models, such as Earth System Models. In these days, the importance of assessment of not only global but also local (city/zone level) impacts of global change has gradually been recognized, thereby downscaling climate models are one of the urgent problems to be solved. Needless to say, reliable downscaling requires spatially high resolution land use change scenarios. So far, there has been proposed a lot of methods for constructing land use change scenarios with considering economic behavior of human, such as agent-based model (e.g., Parker et al., 2001), and land use transport (LUT) model (e.g., Anas and Liu, 2007). The latter approach in particular has widely been applied to actual urban/transport policy; hence modeling the interaction between them is very important for creating reliable land use change scenarios. However, the LUT models are usually built based on the zones of cities/municipalities whose spatial resolutions are too low to derive sensible parameters of the climate models. Moreover, almost all of the works which attempt to build spatially high resolution LUT model employs very small regions as the study area. The objective of this research is deriving various input parameters to climate models such as population density, fractional green vegetation cover, and anthropogenic heat emission with spatially high resolution land use change scenarios constructed with LUT model. The study area of this research is Tokyo metropolitan area, which is the largest urban area in the world (United Nations., 2010). Firstly, this study employs very high ground resolution zones composed of micro districts around 1km2. Secondly, the research attempt to combine remote sensing techniques and LUT models to derive future distribution of fractional green vegetation cover. The study has created two extreme land-use scenarios: urban concentration (compact city) and dispersion scenarios in order to show possible range of future land use change, and derives the input parameters for the climate models. The authors are planning to open the scenarios and derived parameters to relate researches. Anas, A. and Y. Liu. (2007). A Regional Economy, Land Use, and Transportation Model (REULU-TRAN): Formulation, Algorithm Design, and Testing. Journal of Regional Science, 47, 415-455. Parker, D.C., T. Berger, S.M. Manson, Editors (2001). Agent-Based Models of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change. LUCC Report Series No. 6, (Accessed: 27 AUG. 2009; http://www.globallandproject.org/Documents/LUCC_No_6.pdf) United Nations. (2010). World urbanization prospects: City population.

Agent-based models in translational systems biology

PubMed Central

An, Gary; Mi, Qi; Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta; Vodovotz, Yoram

2013-01-01

Effective translational methodologies for knowledge representation are needed in order to make strides against the constellation of diseases that affect the world today. These diseases are defined by their mechanistic complexity, redundancy, and nonlinearity. Translational systems biology aims to harness the power of computational simulation to streamline drug/device design, simulate clinical trials, and eventually to predict the effects of drugs on individuals. The ability of agent-based modeling to encompass multiple scales of biological process as well as spatial considerations, coupled with an intuitive modeling paradigm, suggests that this modeling framework is well suited for translational systems biology. This review describes agent-based modeling and gives examples of its translational applications in the context of acute inflammation and wound healing. PMID:20835989

Impact of different policies on unhealthy dietary behaviors in an urban adult population: an agent-based simulation model.

PubMed

Zhang, Donglan; Giabbanelli, Philippe J; Arah, Onyebuchi A; Zimmerman, Frederick J

2014-07-01

Unhealthy eating is a complex-system problem. We used agent-based modeling to examine the effects of different policies on unhealthy eating behaviors. We developed an agent-based simulation model to represent a synthetic population of adults in Pasadena, CA, and how they make dietary decisions. Data from the 2007 Food Attitudes and Behaviors Survey and other empirical studies were used to calibrate the parameters of the model. Simulations were performed to contrast the potential effects of various policies on the evolution of dietary decisions. Our model showed that a 20% increase in taxes on fast foods would lower the probability of fast-food consumption by 3 percentage points, whereas improving the visibility of positive social norms by 10%, either through community-based or mass-media campaigns, could improve the consumption of fruits and vegetables by 7 percentage points and lower fast-food consumption by 6 percentage points. Zoning policies had no significant impact. Interventions emphasizing healthy eating norms may be more effective than directly targeting food prices or regulating local food outlets. Agent-based modeling may be a useful tool for testing the population-level effects of various policies within complex systems.

Adapting Price Predictions in TAC SCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pardoe, David; Stone, Peter

In agent-based markets, adapting to the behavior of other agents is often necessary for success. When it is not possible to directly model individual competitors, an agent may instead model and adapt to the market conditions that result from competitor behavior. Such an agent could still benefit from reasoning about specific competitor strategies by considering how various combinations of these strategies would impact the conditions being modeled. We present an application of such an approach to a specific prediction problem faced by the agent TacTex-06 in the Trading Agent Competition's Supply Chain Management scenario (TAC SCM).

Modeling persistence of motion in a crowded environment: The diffusive limit of excluding velocity-jump processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavagnin, Enrico; Yates, Christian A.

2018-03-01

Persistence of motion is the tendency of an object to maintain motion in a direction for short time scales without necessarily being biased in any direction in the long term. One of the most appropriate mathematical tools to study this behavior is an agent-based velocity-jump process. In the absence of agent-agent interaction, the mean-field continuum limit of the agent-based model (ABM) gives rise to the well known hyperbolic telegraph equation. When agent-agent interaction is included in the ABM, a strictly advective system of partial differential equations (PDEs) can be derived at the population level. However, no diffusive limit of the ABM has been obtained from such a model. Connecting the microscopic behavior of the ABM to a diffusive macroscopic description is desirable, since it allows the exploration of a wider range of scenarios and establishes a direct connection with commonly used statistical tools of movement analysis. In order to connect the ABM at the population level to a diffusive PDE at the population level, we consider a generalization of the agent-based velocity-jump process on a two-dimensional lattice with three forms of agent interaction. This generalization allows us to take a diffusive limit and obtain a faithful population-level description. We investigate the properties of the model at both the individual and population levels and we elucidate some of the models' key characteristic features. In particular, we show an intrinsic anisotropy inherent to the models and we find evidence of a spontaneous form of aggregation at both the micro- and macroscales.

A Knowledge Navigation Method for the Domain of Customers' Services of Mobile Communication Corporations in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jiangning; Wang, Xiaohuan

Rapidly increasing amount of mobile phone users and types of services leads to a great accumulation of complaining information. How to use this information to enhance the quality of customers' services is a big issue at present. To handle this kind of problem, the paper presents an approach to construct a domain knowledge map for navigating the explicit and tacit knowledge in two ways: building the Topic Map-based explicit knowledge navigation model, which includes domain TM construction, a semantic topic expansion algorithm and VSM-based similarity calculation; building Social Network Analysis-based tacit knowledge navigation model, which includes a multi-relational expert navigation algorithm and the criterions to evaluate the performance of expert networks. In doing so, both the customer managers and operators in call centers can find the appropriate knowledge and experts quickly and exactly. The experimental results show that the above method is very powerful for knowledge navigation.

Minority game and anomalies in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xinghua; Liang, Xiaobei; Tang, Bingyong

2004-02-01

The minority game (MG), which is intrinsically associated with financial markets, is an agent-based model of a competing population with limited resources. We find that the fluctuation features of MG in crowded region are more similar to real market than that of in perfect cooperation region. So we propose and study a modified model based on the MG in which agents accumulate virtual points for their strategies from the last H steps instead of from the beginning of the game. The results of numerical simulations on our new model show that agents will be more intelligent, and the types of features of fluctuations are the same in real-world market. We also give a numerical explanation of the high adaptability of agents in new model.

Explicit ions/implicit water generalized Born model for nucleic acids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tolokh, Igor S.; Thomas, Dennis G.; Onufriev, Alexey V.

Ion atmosphere around highly charged nucleic acid molecules plays a significant role in their dynamics, structure and interactions. Here we utilized the implicit solvent framework to develop a model for the explicit treatment of ions interacting with nucleic acid molecules. The proposed explicit ions/implicit water model is based on a significantly modified generalized Born (GB) model, and utilizes a non-standard approach to defining the solute/solvent dielectric boundary. Specifically, the model includes modifications to the GB interaction terms for the case of multiple interacting solutes – disconnected dielectric boundary around the solute-ion or ion-ion pairs. Fully analytical description of all energymore » components for charge-charge interactions is provided. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated by calculating the potential of mean force (PMF) for Na+-Cl− ion pair and by carrying out a set of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations of mono- and trivalent ions interacting with DNA and RNA duplexes. The monovalent (Na+) and trivalent (CoHex3+) counterion distributions predicted by the model are in close quantitative agreement with all-atom explicit water molecular dynamics simulations used as reference. Expressed in the units of energy, the maximum deviations of local ion concentrations from the reference are within kBT. The proposed explicit ions/implicit water GB model is able to resolve subtle features and differences of CoHex distributions around DNA and RNA duplexes. These features include preferential CoHex binding inside the major groove of RNA duplex, in contrast to CoHex biding at the "external" surface of the sugar-phosphate backbone of DNA duplex; these differences in the counterion binding patters were shown earlier to be responsible for the observed drastic differences in condensation propensities between short DNA and RNA duplexes. MC simulations of CoHex ions interacting with homopolymeric poly(dA·dT) DNA duplex with modified (de-methylated) and native Thymine bases are used to explore the physics behind CoHex-Thymine interactions. The simulations suggest that the ion desolvation penalty due to proximity to the low dielectric volume of the methyl group can contribute significantly to CoHex-Thymine interactions. Compared to the steric repulsion between the ion and the methyl group, the desolvation penalty interaction has a longer range, and may be important to consider in the context of methylation effects on DNA condensation.« less

Explicit ions/implicit water generalized Born model for nucleic acids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolokh, Igor S.; Thomas, Dennis G.; Onufriev, Alexey V.

2018-05-01

The ion atmosphere around highly charged nucleic acid molecules plays a significant role in their dynamics, structure, and interactions. Here we utilized the implicit solvent framework to develop a model for the explicit treatment of ions interacting with nucleic acid molecules. The proposed explicit ions/implicit water model is based on a significantly modified generalized Born (GB) model and utilizes a non-standard approach to define the solute/solvent dielectric boundary. Specifically, the model includes modifications to the GB interaction terms for the case of multiple interacting solutes—disconnected dielectric boundary around the solute-ion or ion-ion pairs. A fully analytical description of all energy components for charge-charge interactions is provided. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated by calculating the potential of mean force for Na+-Cl- ion pair and by carrying out a set of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations of mono- and trivalent ions interacting with DNA and RNA duplexes. The monovalent (Na+) and trivalent (CoHex3+) counterion distributions predicted by the model are in close quantitative agreement with all-atom explicit water molecular dynamics simulations used as reference. Expressed in the units of energy, the maximum deviations of local ion concentrations from the reference are within kBT. The proposed explicit ions/implicit water GB model is able to resolve subtle features and differences of CoHex distributions around DNA and RNA duplexes. These features include preferential CoHex binding inside the major groove of the RNA duplex, in contrast to CoHex biding at the "external" surface of the sugar-phosphate backbone of the DNA duplex; these differences in the counterion binding patters were earlier shown to be responsible for the observed drastic differences in condensation propensities between short DNA and RNA duplexes. MC simulations of CoHex ions interacting with the homopolymeric poly(dA.dT) DNA duplex with modified (de-methylated) and native thymine bases are used to explore the physics behind CoHex-thymine interactions. The simulations suggest that the ion desolvation penalty due to proximity to the low dielectric volume of the methyl group can contribute significantly to CoHex-thymine interactions. Compared to the steric repulsion between the ion and the methyl group, the desolvation penalty interaction has a longer range and may be important to consider in the context of methylation effects on DNA condensation.

Through the Immune Looking Glass: A Model for Brain Memory Strategies

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Ramón, Silvia; Faure, Florence

2016-01-01

The immune system (IS) and the central nervous system (CNS) are complex cognitive networks involved in defining the identity (self) of the individual through recognition and memory processes that enable one to anticipate responses to stimuli. Brain memory has traditionally been classified as either implicit or explicit on psychological and anatomical grounds, with reminiscences of the evolutionarily-based innate-adaptive IS responses. Beyond the multineuronal networks of the CNS, we propose a theoretical model of brain memory integrating the CNS as a whole. This is achieved by analogical reasoning between the operational rules of recognition and memory processes in both systems, coupled to an evolutionary analysis. In this new model, the hippocampus is no longer specifically ascribed to explicit memory but rather it both becomes part of the innate (implicit) memory system and tightly controls the explicit memory system. Alike the antigen presenting cells for the IS, the hippocampus would integrate transient and pseudo-specific (i.e., danger-fear) memories and would drive the formation of long-term and highly specific or explicit memories (i.e., the taste of the Proust’s madeleine cake) by the more complex and recent, evolutionarily speaking, neocortex. Experimental and clinical evidence is provided to support the model. We believe that the singularity of this model’s approximation could help to gain a better understanding of the mechanisms operating in brain memory strategies from a large-scale network perspective. PMID:26869886

Ground-Based Telescope Parametric Cost Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahl, H. Philip; Rowell, Ginger Holmes

2004-01-01

A parametric cost model for ground-based telescopes is developed using multi-variable statistical analysis, The model includes both engineering and performance parameters. While diameter continues to be the dominant cost driver, other significant factors include primary mirror radius of curvature and diffraction limited wavelength. The model includes an explicit factor for primary mirror segmentation and/or duplication (i.e.. multi-telescope phased-array systems). Additionally, single variable models based on aperture diameter are derived. This analysis indicates that recent mirror technology advances have indeed reduced the historical telescope cost curve.

The Importance of Explicitly Representing Soil Carbon with Depth over the Permafrost Region in Earth System Models: Implications for Atmospheric Carbon Dynamics at Multiple Temporal Scales between 1960 and 2300.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, A. D.

2014-12-01

We conducted an assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage simulated by process-based models between 1960 and 2300. The models participating in this comparison were those that had joined the model integration team of the Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network (see http://www.biology.ufl.edu/permafrostcarbon/). Each of the models in this comparison conducted simulations over the permafrost land region in the Northern Hemisphere driven by CCSM4-simulated climate for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Among the models, the area of permafrost (defined as the area for which active layer thickness was less than 3 m) ranged between 13.2 and 20.0 million km2. Between 1960 and 2300, models indicated the loss of permafrost area between 5.1 to 6.0 million km2 for RCP 4.5 and between 7.1 and 15.2 million km2 for RCP 8.5. Among the models, the density of soil carbon storage in 1960 ranged between 13 and 42 thousand g C m-2; models that explicitly represented carbon with depth had estimates greater than 27 thousand g C m-2. For the RCP 4.5 scenario, changes in soil carbon between 1960 and 2300 ranged between losses of 32 Pg C to gains of 58 Pg C, in which models that explicitly represent soil carbon with depth simulated losses or lower gains of soil carbon in comparison with those that did not. For the RCP 8.5 scenario, changes in soil carbon between 1960 and 2300 ranged between losses of 642 Pg C to gains of 66 Pg C, in which those models that represent soil carbon explicitly with depth all simulated losses, while those that do not all simulated gains. These results indicate that there are substantial differences in responses of carbon dynamics between model that do and do not explicitly represent soil carbon with depth in the permafrost region. We present analyses of the implications of the differences for atmospheric carbon dynamics at multiple temporal scales between 1960 and 2300.

Teachers' Perceptions of Strategy Based Reading Instruction for Reading Comprehension

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibson, Katherine D.

2009-01-01

Strategy based reading instruction helps teachers differentiate the teaching of reading. It also supports many types of readers by explicitly teaching and modeling reading comprehension strategies. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of strategy based reading instruction for improving student reading comprehension. …

Efficient Agent-Based Models for Non-Genomic Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Nachi; Agogino, Adrian; Tumer, Kagan

2006-01-01

Modeling dynamical systems composed of aggregations of primitive proteins is critical to the field of astrobiological science involving early evolutionary structures and the origins of life. Unfortunately traditional non-multi-agent methods either require oversimplified models or are slow to converge to adequate solutions. This paper shows how to address these deficiencies by modeling the protein aggregations through a utility based multi-agent system. In this method each agent controls the properties of a set of proteins assigned to that agent. Some of these properties determine the dynamics of the system, such as the ability for some proteins to join or split other proteins, while additional properties determine the aggregation s fitness as a viable primitive cell. We show that over a wide range of starting conditions, there are mechanisins that allow protein aggregations to achieve high values of overall fitness. In addition through the use of agent-specific utilities that remain aligned with the overall global utility, we are able to reach these conclusions with 50 times fewer learning steps.

Multi-Element Behaviour Support as a Model for the Delivery of a Human Rights Based Approach for Working with People with Intellectual Disabilities and Behaviours that Challenge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doody, Christina

2009-01-01

This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the multi-element behaviour support (MEBS) model in meeting the rights of persons with intellectual disabilities and behaviours that challenge. It does this through explicitly linking the multi-element model to the guiding principles of a human rights based approach (HRBA) using a vignette to…

Dual Rationality and Deliberative Agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debenham, John; Sierra, Carles

Human agents deliberate using models based on reason for only a minute proportion of the decisions that they make. In stark contrast, the deliberation of artificial agents is heavily dominated by formal models based on reason such as game theory, decision theory and logic—despite that fact that formal reasoning will not necessarily lead to superior real-world decisions. Further the Nobel Laureate Friedrich Hayek warns us of the ‘fatal conceit’ in controlling deliberative systems using models based on reason as the particular model chosen will then shape the system’s future and either impede, or eventually destroy, the subtle evolutionary processes that are an integral part of human systems and institutions, and are crucial to their evolution and long-term survival. We describe an architecture for artificial agents that is founded on Hayek’s two rationalities and supports the two forms of deliberation used by mankind.

QSAR modeling based on structure-information for properties of interest in human health.

PubMed

Hall, L H; Hall, L M

2005-01-01

The development of QSAR models based on topological structure description is presented for problems in human health. These models are based on the structure-information approach to quantitative biological modeling and prediction, in contrast to the mechanism-based approach. The structure-information approach is outlined, starting with basic structure information developed from the chemical graph (connection table). Information explicit in the connection table (element identity and skeletal connections) leads to significant (implicit) structure information that is useful for establishing sound models of a wide range of properties of interest in drug design. Valence state definition leads to relationships for valence state electronegativity and atom/group molar volume. Based on these important aspects of molecules, together with skeletal branching patterns, both the electrotopological state (E-state) and molecular connectivity (chi indices) structure descriptors are developed and described. A summary of four QSAR models indicates the wide range of applicability of these structure descriptors and the predictive quality of QSAR models based on them: aqueous solubility (5535 chemically diverse compounds, 938 in external validation), percent oral absorption (%OA, 417 therapeutic drugs, 195 drugs in external validation testing), AMES mutagenicity (2963 compounds including 290 therapeutic drugs, 400 in external validation), fish toxicity (92 substituted phenols, anilines and substituted aromatics). These models are established independent of explicit three-dimensional (3-D) structure information and are directly interpretable in terms of the implicit structure information useful to the drug design process.

Can agent based models effectively reduce fisheries management implementation uncertainty?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drexler, M.

2016-02-01

Uncertainty is an inherent feature of fisheries management. Implementation uncertainty remains a challenge to quantify often due to unintended responses of users to management interventions. This problem will continue to plague both single species and ecosystem based fisheries management advice unless the mechanisms driving these behaviors are properly understood. Equilibrium models, where each actor in the system is treated as uniform and predictable, are not well suited to forecast the unintended behaviors of individual fishers. Alternatively, agent based models (AMBs) can simulate the behaviors of each individual actor driven by differing incentives and constraints. This study evaluated the feasibility of using AMBs to capture macro scale behaviors of the US West Coast Groundfish fleet. Agent behavior was specified at the vessel level. Agents made daily fishing decisions using knowledge of their own cost structure, catch history, and the histories of catch and quota markets. By adding only a relatively small number of incentives, the model was able to reproduce highly realistic macro patterns of expected outcomes in response to management policies (catch restrictions, MPAs, ITQs) while preserving vessel heterogeneity. These simulations indicate that agent based modeling approaches hold much promise for simulating fisher behaviors and reducing implementation uncertainty. Additional processes affecting behavior, informed by surveys, are continually being added to the fisher behavior model. Further coupling of the fisher behavior model to a spatial ecosystem model will provide a fully integrated social, ecological, and economic model capable of performing management strategy evaluations to properly consider implementation uncertainty in fisheries management.

Systems, methods and apparatus for modeling, specifying and deploying policies in autonomous and autonomic systems using agent-oriented software engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sterritt, Roy (Inventor); Hinchey, Michael G. (Inventor); Penn, Joaquin (Inventor)

2011-01-01

Systems, methods and apparatus are provided through which in some embodiments, an agent-oriented specification modeled with MaCMAS, is analyzed, flaws in the agent-oriented specification modeled with MaCMAS are corrected, and an implementation is derived from the corrected agent-oriented specification. Described herein are systems, method and apparatus that produce fully (mathematically) tractable development of agent-oriented specification(s) modeled with methodology fragment for analyzing complex multiagent systems (MaCMAS) and policies for autonomic systems from requirements through to code generation. The systems, method and apparatus described herein are illustrated through an example showing how user formulated policies can be translated into a formal mode which can then be converted to code. The requirements-based programming systems, method and apparatus described herein may provide faster, higher quality development and maintenance of autonomic systems based on user formulation of policies.

When push comes to shove: Exclusion processes with nonlocal consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almet, Axel A.; Pan, Michael; Hughes, Barry D.; Landman, Kerry A.

2015-11-01

Stochastic agent-based models are useful for modelling collective movement of biological cells. Lattice-based random walk models of interacting agents where each site can be occupied by at most one agent are called simple exclusion processes. An alternative motility mechanism to simple exclusion is formulated, in which agents are granted more freedom to move under the compromise that interactions are no longer necessarily local. This mechanism is termed shoving. A nonlinear diffusion equation is derived for a single population of shoving agents using mean-field continuum approximations. A continuum model is also derived for a multispecies problem with interacting subpopulations, which either obey the shoving rules or the simple exclusion rules. Numerical solutions of the derived partial differential equations compare well with averaged simulation results for both the single species and multispecies processes in two dimensions, while some issues arise in one dimension for the multispecies case.

A methodology for eliciting, representing, and analysing stakeholder knowledge for decision making on complex socio-ecological systems: from cognitive maps to agent-based models.

PubMed

Elsawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H A; Filatova, Tatiana; Rook, Josefine; Jakeman, Anthony J

2015-03-15

This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative) with the ultimate goal of improving understanding and communication about decision making in complex socio-ecological systems. The methodology integrates cognitive mapping and agent based modelling. It cascades through a sequence of qualitative/soft and numerical methods comprising: (1) Interviews to elicit mental models; (2) Cognitive maps to represent and analyse individual and group mental models; (3) Time-sequence diagrams to chronologically structure the decision making process; (4) All-encompassing conceptual model of decision making, and (5) computational (in this case agent-based) Model. We apply the proposed methodology (labelled ICTAM) in a case study of viticulture irrigation in South Australia. Finally, we use strengths-weakness-opportunities-threats (SWOT) analysis to reflect on the methodology. Results show that the methodology leverages the use of cognitive mapping to capture the richness of decision making and mental models, and provides a combination of divergent and convergent analysis methods leading to the construction of an Agent Based Model. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling of fatigue crack induced nonlinear ultrasonics using a highly parallelized explicit local interaction simulation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Yanfeng; Cesnik, Carlos E. S.

2016-04-01

This paper presents a parallelized modeling technique for the efficient simulation of nonlinear ultrasonics introduced by the wave interaction with fatigue cracks. The elastodynamic wave equations with contact effects are formulated using an explicit Local Interaction Simulation Approach (LISA). The LISA formulation is extended to capture the contact-impact phenomena during the wave damage interaction based on the penalty method. A Coulomb friction model is integrated into the computation procedure to capture the stick-slip contact shear motion. The LISA procedure is coded using the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA), which enables the highly parallelized supercomputing on powerful graphic cards. Both the explicit contact formulation and the parallel feature facilitates LISA's superb computational efficiency over the conventional finite element method (FEM). The theoretical formulations based on the penalty method is introduced and a guideline for the proper choice of the contact stiffness is given. The convergence behavior of the solution under various contact stiffness values is examined. A numerical benchmark problem is used to investigate the new LISA formulation and results are compared with a conventional contact finite element solution. Various nonlinear ultrasonic phenomena are successfully captured using this contact LISA formulation, including the generation of nonlinear higher harmonic responses. Nonlinear mode conversion of guided waves at fatigue cracks is also studied.

Analyzing Variability in Landscape Nutrient Loading Using Spatially-Explicit Maps in the Great Lakes Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlin, Q. F.; Kendall, A. D.; Martin, S. L.; Whitenack, H. D.; Roush, J. A.; Hannah, B. A.; Hyndman, D. W.

2017-12-01

Excessive loading of nitrogen and phosphorous to the landscape has caused biologically and economically damaging eutrophication and harmful algal blooms in the Great Lakes Basin (GLB) and across the world. We mapped source-specific loads of nitrogen and phosphorous to the landscape using broadly available data across the GLB. SENSMap (Spatially Explicit Nutrient Source Map) is a 30m resolution snapshot of nutrient loads ca. 2010. We use these maps to study variable nutrient loading and provide this information to watershed managers through NOAA's GLB Tipping Points Planner. SENSMap individually maps nutrient point sources and six non-point sources: 1) atmospheric deposition, 2) septic tanks, 3) non-agricultural chemical fertilizer, 4) agricultural chemical fertilizer, 5) manure, and 6) nitrogen fixation from legumes. To model source-specific loads at high resolution, SENSMap synthesizes a wide range of remotely sensed, surveyed, and tabular data. Using these spatially explicit nutrient loading maps, we can better calibrate local land use-based water quality models and provide insight to watershed managers on how to focus nutrient reduction strategies. Here we examine differences in dominant nutrient sources across the GLB, and how those sources vary by land use. SENSMap's high resolution, source-specific approach offers a different lens to understand nutrient loading than traditional semi-distributed or land use based models.

EXPECT: Explicit Representations for Flexible Acquisition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swartout, BIll; Gil, Yolanda

1995-01-01

To create more powerful knowledge acquisition systems, we not only need better acquisition tools, but we need to change the architecture of the knowledge based systems we create so that their structure will provide better support for acquisition. Current acquisition tools permit users to modify factual knowledge but they provide limited support for modifying problem solving knowledge. In this paper, the authors argue that this limitation (and others) stem from the use of incomplete models of problem-solving knowledge and inflexible specification of the interdependencies between problem-solving and factual knowledge. We describe the EXPECT architecture which addresses these problems by providing an explicit representation for problem-solving knowledge and intent. Using this more explicit representation, EXPECT can automatically derive the interdependencies between problem-solving and factual knowledge. By deriving these interdependencies from the structure of the knowledge-based system itself EXPECT supports more flexible and powerful knowledge acquisition.

Standard Gibbs energy of metabolic reactions: II. Glucose-6-phosphatase reaction and ATP hydrolysis.

PubMed

Meurer, Florian; Do, Hoang Tam; Sadowski, Gabriele; Held, Christoph

2017-04-01

ATP (adenosine triphosphate) is a key reaction for metabolism. Tools from systems biology require standard reaction data in order to predict metabolic pathways accurately. However, literature values for standard Gibbs energy of ATP hydrolysis are highly uncertain and differ strongly from each other. Further, such data usually neglect the activity coefficients of reacting agents, and published data like this is apparent (condition-dependent) data instead of activity-based standard data. In this work a consistent value for the standard Gibbs energy of ATP hydrolysis was determined. The activity coefficients of reacting agents were modeled with electrolyte Perturbed-Chain Statistical Associating Fluid Theory (ePC-SAFT). The Gibbs energy of ATP hydrolysis was calculated by combining the standard Gibbs energies of hexokinase reaction and of glucose-6-phosphate hydrolysis. While the standard Gibbs energy of hexokinase reaction was taken from previous work, standard Gibbs energy of glucose-6-phosphate hydrolysis reaction was determined in this work. For this purpose, reaction equilibrium molalities of reacting agents were measured at pH7 and pH8 at 298.15K at varying initial reacting agent molalities. The corresponding activity coefficients at experimental equilibrium molalities were predicted with ePC-SAFT yielding the Gibbs energy of glucose-6-phosphate hydrolysis of -13.72±0.75kJ·mol -1 . Combined with the value for hexokinase, the standard Gibbs energy of ATP hydrolysis was finally found to be -31.55±1.27kJ·mol -1 . For both, ATP hydrolysis and glucose-6-phosphate hydrolysis, a good agreement with own and literature values were obtained when influences of pH, temperature, and activity coefficients were explicitly taken into account in order to calculate standard Gibbs energy at pH7, 298.15K and standard state. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Agent-Based Modeling Template for a Cohort of Veterans with Diabetic Retinopathy.

PubMed

Day, Theodore Eugene; Ravi, Nathan; Xian, Hong; Brugh, Ann

2013-01-01

Agent-based models are valuable for examining systems where large numbers of discrete individuals interact with each other, or with some environment. Diabetic Veterans seeking eye care at a Veterans Administration hospital represent one such cohort. The objective of this study was to develop an agent-based template to be used as a model for a patient with diabetic retinopathy (DR). This template may be replicated arbitrarily many times in order to generate a large cohort which is representative of a real-world population, upon which in-silico experimentation may be conducted. Agent-based template development was performed in java-based computer simulation suite AnyLogic Professional 6.6. The model was informed by medical data abstracted from 535 patient records representing a retrospective cohort of current patients of the VA St. Louis Healthcare System Eye clinic. Logistic regression was performed to determine the predictors associated with advancing stages of DR. Predicted probabilities obtained from logistic regression were used to generate the stage of DR in the simulated cohort. The simulated cohort of DR patients exhibited no significant deviation from the test population of real-world patients in proportion of stage of DR, duration of diabetes mellitus (DM), or the other abstracted predictors. Simulated patients after 10 years were significantly more likely to exhibit proliferative DR (P<0.001). Agent-based modeling is an emerging platform, capable of simulating large cohorts of individuals based on manageable data abstraction efforts. The modeling method described may be useful in simulating many different conditions where course of disease is described in categorical stages.

GIS-BASED HYDROLOGIC MODELING: THE AUTOMATED GEOSPATIAL WATERSHED ASSESSMENT TOOL

EPA Science Inventory

Planning and assessment in land and water resource management are evolving from simple, local scale problems toward complex, spatially explicit regional ones. Such problems have to be
addressed with distributed models that can compute runoff and erosion at different spatial a...

Simulating the conversion of rural settlements to town land based on multi-agent systems and cellular automata.

PubMed

Liu, Yaolin; Kong, Xuesong; Liu, Yanfang; Chen, Yiyun

2013-01-01

Rapid urbanization in China has triggered the conversion of land from rural to urban use, particularly the conversion of rural settlements to town land. This conversion is the result of the joint effects of the geographic environment and agents involving the government, investors, and farmers. To understand the dynamic interaction dominated by agents and to predict the future landscape of town expansion, a small town land-planning model is proposed based on the integration of multi-agent systems (MAS) and cellular automata (CA). The MAS-CA model links the decision-making behaviors of agents with the neighbor effect of CA. The interaction rules are projected by analyzing the preference conflicts among agents. To better illustrate the effects of the geographic environment, neighborhood, and agent behavior, a comparative analysis between the CA and MAS-CA models in three different towns is presented, revealing interesting patterns in terms of quantity, spatial characteristics, and the coordinating process. The simulation of rural settlements conversion to town land through modeling agent decision and human-environment interaction is very useful for understanding the mechanisms of rural-urban land-use change in developing countries. This process can assist town planners in formulating appropriate development plans.

Predicting drought propagation within peat layers using a three dimensionally explicit voxel based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Condro, A. A.; Pawitan, H.; Risdiyanto, I.

2018-05-01

Peatlands are very vulnerable to widespread fires during dry seasons, due to availability of aboveground fuel biomass on the surface and belowground fuel biomass on the sub-surface. Hence, understanding drought propagation occurring within peat layers is crucial with regards to disaster mitigation activities on peatlands. Using a three dimensionally explicit voxel-based model of peatland hydrology, this study predicted drought propagation time lags into sub-surface peat layers after drought events occurrence on the surface of about 1 month during La-Nina and 2.5 months during El-Nino. The study was carried out on a high-conservation-value area of oil palm plantation in West Kalimantan. Validity of the model was evaluated and its applicability for disaster mitigation was discussed. The animations of simulated voxels are available at: goo.gl/HDRMYN (El-Nino 2015 episode) and goo.gl/g1sXPl (La-Nina 2016 episode). The model is available at: goo.gl/RiuMQz.

Classification of NLO operators for composite Higgs models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alanne, Tommi; Bizot, Nicolas; Cacciapaglia, Giacomo; Sannino, Francesco

2018-04-01

We provide a general classification of template operators, up to next-to-leading order, that appear in chiral perturbation theories based on the two flavor patterns of spontaneous symmetry breaking SU (NF)/Sp (NF) and SU (NF)/SO (NF). All possible explicit-breaking sources parametrized by spurions transforming in the fundamental and in the two-index representations of the flavor symmetry are included. While our general framework can be applied to any model of strong dynamics, we specialize to composite-Higgs models, where the main explicit breaking sources are a current mass, the gauging of flavor symmetries, and the Yukawa couplings (for the top). For the top, we consider both bilinear couplings and linear ones à la partial compositeness. Our templates provide a basis for lattice calculations in specific models. As a special example, we consider the SU (4 )/Sp (4 )≅SO (6 )/SO (5 ) pattern which corresponds to the minimal fundamental composite-Higgs model. We further revisit issues related to the misalignment of the vacuum. In particular, we shed light on the physical properties of the singlet η , showing that it cannot develop a vacuum expectation value without explicit C P violation in the underlying theory.

A Geographically Explicit Genetic Model of Worldwide Human-Settlement History

PubMed Central

Liu, Hua; Prugnolle, Franck; Manica, Andrea; Balloux, François

2006-01-01

Currently available genetic and archaeological evidence is generally interpreted as supportive of a recent single origin of modern humans in East Africa. However, this is where the near consensus on human settlement history ends, and considerable uncertainty clouds any more detailed aspect of human colonization history. Here, we present a dynamic genetic model of human settlement history coupled with explicit geographical distances from East Africa, the likely origin of modern humans. We search for the best-supported parameter space by fitting our analytical prediction to genetic data that are based on 52 human populations analyzed at 783 autosomal microsatellite markers. This framework allows us to jointly estimate the key parameters of the expansion of modern humans. Our best estimates suggest an initial expansion of modern humans ∼56,000 years ago from a small founding population of ∼1,000 effective individuals. Our model further points to high growth rates in newly colonized habitats. The general fit of the model with the data is excellent. This suggests that coupling analytical genetic models with explicit demography and geography provides a powerful tool for making inferences on human-settlement history. PMID:16826514

On creative machines and the physical origins of freedom

PubMed Central

Briegel, Hans J.

2012-01-01

We discuss the possibility of free behavior in embodied systems that are, with no exception and at all scales of their body, subject to physical law. We relate the discussion to a model of an artificial agent that exhibits a primitive notion of creativity and freedom in dealing with its environment, which is part of a recently introduced scheme of information processing called projective simulation. This provides an explicit proposal on how we can reconcile our understanding of universal physical law with the idea that higher biological entities can acquire a notion of freedom that allows them to increasingly detach themselves from a strict dependence on the surrounding world. PMID:22822427

Issues of Spatial and Temporal Scale in Modeling the Effects of Field Operatiions on Soil Properties

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Tillage is an important procedure for modifying the soil environment in order to enhance crop growth and conserve soil and water resources. Process-based models of crop production are widely used in decision support, but few explicitly simulate tillage. The Cropping Systems Model (CSM) was modified ...

Improving smoothing efficiency of rigid conformal polishing tool using time-dependent smoothing evaluation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Chi; Zhang, Xuejun; Zhang, Xin; Hu, Haifei; Zeng, Xuefeng

2017-06-01

A rigid conformal (RC) lap can smooth mid-spatial-frequency (MSF) errors, which are naturally smaller than the tool size, while still removing large-scale errors in a short time. However, the RC-lap smoothing efficiency performance is poorer than expected, and existing smoothing models cannot explicitly specify the methods to improve this efficiency. We presented an explicit time-dependent smoothing evaluation model that contained specific smoothing parameters directly derived from the parametric smoothing model and the Preston equation. Based on the time-dependent model, we proposed a strategy to improve the RC-lap smoothing efficiency, which incorporated the theoretical model, tool optimization, and efficiency limit determination. Two sets of smoothing experiments were performed to demonstrate the smoothing efficiency achieved using the time-dependent smoothing model. A high, theory-like tool influence function and a limiting tool speed of 300 RPM were o

Adding ecosystem function to agent-based land use models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objective of this paper is to examine issues in the inclusion of simulations of ecosystem functions in agent-based models of land use decision-making. The reasons for incorporating these simulations include local interests in land fertility and global interests in carbon sequestration. Biogeoche...