Creativity and Ethics: The Relationship of Creative and Ethical Problem-Solving.

PubMed

Mumford, Michael D; Waples, Ethan P; Antes, Alison L; Brown, Ryan P; Connelly, Shane; Murphy, Stephen T; Devenport, Lynn D

2010-02-01

Students of creativity have long been interested in the relationship between creativity and deviant behaviors such as criminality, mental disease, and unethical behavior. In the present study we wished to examine the relationship between creative thinking skills and ethical decision-making among scientists. Accordingly, 258 doctoral students in the health, biological, and social sciences were asked to complete a measure of creative processing skills (e.g., problem definition, conceptual combination, idea generation) and a measure of ethical decision-making examining four domains, data management, study conduct, professional practices, and business practices. It was found that ethical decision-making in all four of these areas was related to creative problem-solving processes with late cycle processes (e.g., idea generation and solution monitoring) proving particularly important. The implications of these findings for understanding the relationship between creative and deviant thought are discussed.

Creativity and Ethics: The Relationship of Creative and Ethical Problem-Solving

PubMed Central

Mumford, Michael D.; Waples, Ethan P.; Antes, Alison L.; Brown, Ryan P.; Connelly, Shane; Murphy, Stephen T.; Devenport, Lynn D.

2010-01-01

Students of creativity have long been interested in the relationship between creativity and deviant behaviors such as criminality, mental disease, and unethical behavior. In the present study we wished to examine the relationship between creative thinking skills and ethical decision-making among scientists. Accordingly, 258 doctoral students in the health, biological, and social sciences were asked to complete a measure of creative processing skills (e.g., problem definition, conceptual combination, idea generation) and a measure of ethical decision-making examining four domains, data management, study conduct, professional practices, and business practices. It was found that ethical decision-making in all four of these areas was related to creative problem-solving processes with late cycle processes (e.g., idea generation and solution monitoring) proving particularly important. The implications of these findings for understanding the relationship between creative and deviant thought are discussed. PMID:21057603

Evaluating the Effects that Existing Instruction on Responsible Conduct of Research Has on Ethical Decision Making

PubMed Central

Antes, Alison L.; Wang, Xiaoqian; Mumford, Michael D.; Brown, Ryan P.; Connelly, Shane; Devenport, Lynn D.

2015-01-01

Purpose To examine the effects that existing courses on the responsible conduct of research (RCR) have on ethical decision making by assessing the ethicality of decisions made in response to ethical problems and the underlying processes involved in ethical decision making. These processes included how an individual thinks through ethical problems (i.e., meta-cognitive reasoning strategies) and the emphasis placed on social dimensions of ethical problems (i.e., social–behavioral responses). Method In 2005–2007, recruitment announcements were made, stating that a nationwide, online study was being conducted to examine the impact of RCR instruction on the ethical decision making of scientists. Recruitment yielded contacts with over 200 RCR faculty at 21 research universities and medical schools; 40 (20%) RCR instructors enrolled their courses in the current study. From those courses, 173 participants completed an ethical decision-making measure. Results A mixed pattern of effects emerged. The ethicality of decisions did not improve as a result of RCR instruction and even decreased for decisions pertaining to business aspects of research, such as contract bidding. Course participants improved on some meta-cognitive reasoning strategies, such as awareness of the situation and consideration of personal motivations, but declined for seeking help and considering others’ perspectives. Participants also increased in their endorsement of detrimental social–behavioral responses, such as deception, retaliation, and avoidance of personal responsibility. Conclusions These findings indicated that RCR instruction may not be as effective as intended, and in fact, may even be harmful. Harmful effects might result if instruction leads students to overstress avoidance of ethical problems, be overconfident in their ability to handle ethical problems, or overemphasize their ethical nature. Future research must examine these and other possible obstacles to effective RCR instruction. PMID:20182131

Evaluating the effects that existing instruction on responsible conduct of research has on ethical decision making.

PubMed

Antes, Alison L; Wang, Xiaoqian; Mumford, Michael D; Brown, Ryan P; Connelly, Shane; Devenport, Lynn D

2010-03-01

To examine the effects that existing courses on the responsible conduct of research (RCR) have on ethical decision making by assessing the ethicality of decisions made in response to ethical problems and the underlying processes involved in ethical decision making. These processes included how an individual thinks through ethical problems (i.e., meta-cognitive reasoning strategies) and the emphasis placed on social dimensions of ethical problems (i.e., social-behavioral responses). In 2005-2007, recruitment announcements were made, stating that a nationwide, online study was being conducted to examine the impact of RCR instruction on the ethical decision making of scientists. Recruitment yielded contacts with over 200 RCR faculty at 21 research universities and medical schools; 40 (20%) RCR instructors enrolled their courses in the current study. From those courses, 173 participants completed an ethical decision-making measure. A mixed pattern of effects emerged. The ethicality of decisions did not improve as a result of RCR instruction and even decreased for decisions pertaining to business aspects of research, such as contract bidding. Course participants improved on some meta-cognitive reasoning strategies, such as awareness of the situation and consideration of personal motivations, but declined for seeking help and considering others' perspectives. Participants also increased their endorsement of detrimental social-behavioral responses, such as deception, retaliation, and avoidance of personal responsibility. These findings indicated that RCR instruction may not be as effective as intended and, in fact, may even be harmful. Harmful effects might result if instruction leads students to overstress avoidance of ethical problems, be overconfident in their ability to handle ethical problems, or overemphasize their ethical nature. Future research must examine these and other possible obstacles to effective RCR instruction.

Decision-making, sensitivity to reward, and attrition in weight-management

PubMed Central

Koritzky, Gilly; Dieterle, Camille; Rice, Chantelle; Jordan, Katie; Bechara, Antoine

2014-01-01

Objective Attrition is a common problem in weight-management. Understanding the risk factors for attrition should enhance professionals’ ability to increase completion rates and improve health outcomes for more individuals. We propose a model that draws upon neuropsychological knowledge on reward-sensitivity in obesity and overeating to predict attrition. Design & Methods 52 participants in a weight-management program completed a complex decision-making task.Decision-making characteristics – including sensitivity to reward – were further estimated using a quantitative model. Impulsivity and risk-taking measures were also administered. Results Consistent with the hypothesis that sensitivity to reward predicted attrition, program dropouts had higher sensitivity to reward than completers (p < 0.03). No differences were observed between completers and dropouts in initial BMI, age, employment status, or the number of prior weight-loss attempts (p ≥ 0.07). Completers had a slightly higher education level than dropouts, but its inclusion in the model did not increase predictive power. Impulsivity, delay of gratification, and risk-taking did not predict attrition, either. Conclusions Findings link attrition in weight-management to the neural mechanisms associated with reward-seeking and related influences on decision-making. Individual differences in the magnitude of response elicited by rewards may account for the relative difficulty experienced by dieters in adhering to treatment. PMID:24771588

Patients' involvement in decisions about medicines: GPs' perceptions of their preferences

PubMed Central

Cox, Kate; Britten, Nicky; Hooper, Richard; White, Patrick

2007-01-01

Background Patients vary in their desire to be involved in decisions about their care. Aim To assess the accuracy and impact of GPs' perceptions of their patients' desire for involvement. Design of study Consultation-based study. Setting Five primary care centres in south London. Method Consecutive patients completed decision-making preference questionnaires before and after consultation. Eighteen GPs completed a questionnaire at the beginning of the study and reported their perceptions of patients' preferences after each consultation. Patients' satisfaction was assessed using the Medical Interview Satisfaction Scale. Analyses were conducted in 190 patient–GP pairs that identified the same medicine decision about the same main health problem. Results A total of 479 patients participated (75.7% of those approached). Thirty-nine per cent of these patients wanted their GPs to share the decision, 45% wanted the GP to be the main (28%) or only (17%) decision maker regarding their care, and 16% wanted to be the main (14%) or only (2%) decision maker themselves. GPs accurately assessed patients' preferences in 32% of the consultations studied, overestimated patients' preferences for involvement in 45%, and underestimated them in 23% of consultations studied. Factors protective against GPs underestimating patients' preferences were: patients preferring the GP to make the decision (odds ratio [OR] 0.2 per point on the five-point scale; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.1 to 0.4), and the patient having discussed their main health problem before (OR 0.3; 95% CI = 0.1 to 0.9). Patients' educational attainment was independently associated with GPs underestimation of preferences. Conclusion GPs' perceptions of their patients' desire to be involved in decisions about medicines are inaccurate in most cases. Doctors are more likely to underestimate patients' preferred level of involvement when patients have not consulted about their condition before. PMID:17925134

Applied Swarm-based medicine: collecting decision trees for patterns of algorithms analysis.

PubMed

Panje, Cédric M; Glatzer, Markus; von Rappard, Joscha; Rothermundt, Christian; Hundsberger, Thomas; Zumstein, Valentin; Plasswilm, Ludwig; Putora, Paul Martin

2017-08-16

The objective consensus methodology has recently been applied in consensus finding in several studies on medical decision-making among clinical experts or guidelines. The main advantages of this method are an automated analysis and comparison of treatment algorithms of the participating centers which can be performed anonymously. Based on the experience from completed consensus analyses, the main steps for the successful implementation of the objective consensus methodology were identified and discussed among the main investigators. The following steps for the successful collection and conversion of decision trees were identified and defined in detail: problem definition, population selection, draft input collection, tree conversion, criteria adaptation, problem re-evaluation, results distribution and refinement, tree finalisation, and analysis. This manuscript provides information on the main steps for successful collection of decision trees and summarizes important aspects at each point of the analysis.

Junior doctors' extended work hours and the effects on their performance: the Irish case.

PubMed

Flinn, Fiona; Armstrong, Claire

2011-04-01

To explore the relationship between junior doctors' long working hours and their performance in a variety of cognitive and clinical decision-making tests. Also, to consider the implications of performance decrements in such tests for healthcare quality. A within-subject design was used to eliminate variation related to individual differences. Each participant was tested twice, once post call and once rested. At each session, participants were tested on cognitive functioning and clinical decision-making. The study was based on six acute Irish hospitals during 2008. Thirty junior hospital doctors, ages ranged from 23 to 30 years; of them, 17 of the participants were female and 13 were male. Measures Cognitive functioning was measured by the MindStreams Global Assessment Battery (NeuroTrax Corp., NY, USA). This is a set of computerized tests, designed for use in medical settings, that assesses performance in memory, executive function, visual spatial perception, verbal function, attention, information processing speed and motor skills. Clinical decision-making was tested using Key Features Problems. Each Key Features Problem consists of a case scenario and then three to four questions about this scenario. In an effort to make it more realistic, the speed with which participants completed the three problems was also recorded. Participants' global cognitive scores, attention, information processing speed and motor skills were significantly worse post call than when rested. They also took longer to complete clinical decision-making questions in the post-call condition and obtained lower scores than when rested. There are significant negative changes in doctors' cognitive functioning and clinical decision-making performance that appear to be attributable to long working hours. This therefore raises the important question of whether working long hours decreases healthcare quality and compromises patient safety.

Lost in the crowd? Using eye-tracking to investigate the effect of complexity on attribute non-attendance in discrete choice experiments.

PubMed

Spinks, Jean; Mortimer, Duncan

2016-02-03

The provision of additional information is often assumed to improve consumption decisions, allowing consumers to more accurately weigh the costs and benefits of alternatives. However, increasing the complexity of decision problems may prompt changes in information processing. This is particularly relevant for experimental methods such as discrete choice experiments (DCEs) where the researcher can manipulate the complexity of the decision problem. The primary aims of this study are (i) to test whether consumers actually process additional information in an already complex decision problem, and (ii) consider the implications of any such 'complexity-driven' changes in information processing for design and analysis of DCEs. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) is used to simulate a complex decision problem; here, the choice between complementary and conventional medicine for different health conditions. Eye-tracking technology is used to capture the number of times and the duration that a participant looks at any part of a computer screen during completion of DCE choice sets. From this we can analyse what has become known in the DCE literature as 'attribute non-attendance' (ANA). Using data from 32 participants, we model the likelihood of ANA as a function of choice set complexity and respondent characteristics using fixed and random effects models to account for repeated choice set completion. We also model whether participants are consistent with regard to which characteristics (attributes) they consider across choice sets. We find that complexity is the strongest predictor of ANA when other possible influences, such as time pressure, ordering effects, survey specific effects and socio-demographic variables (including proxies for prior experience with the decision problem) are considered. We also find that most participants do not apply a consistent information processing strategy across choice sets. Eye-tracking technology shows promise as a way of obtaining additional information from consumer research, improving DCE design, and informing the design of policy measures. With regards to DCE design, results from the present study suggest that eye-tracking data can identify the point at which adding complexity (and realism) to DCE choice scenarios becomes self-defeating due to unacceptable increases in ANA. Eye-tracking data therefore has clear application in the construction of guidelines for DCE design and during piloting of DCE choice scenarios. With regards to design of policy measures such as labelling requirements for CAM and conventional medicines, the provision of additional information has the potential to make difficult decisions even harder and may not have the desired effect on decision-making.

An intelligent, knowledge-based multiple criteria decision making advisor for systems design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yongchang

In systems engineering, design and operation of systems are two main problems which always attract researcher's attentions. The accomplishment of activities in these problems often requires proper decisions to be made so that the desired goal can be achieved, thus, decision making needs to be carefully fulfilled in the design and operation of systems. Design is a decision making process which permeates through out the design process, and is at the core of all design activities. In modern aircraft design, more and more attention is paid to the conceptual and preliminary design phases so as to increase the odds of choosing a design that will ultimately be successful at the completion of the design process, therefore, decisions made during these early design stages play a critical role in determining the success of a design. Since aerospace systems are complex systems with interacting disciplines and technologies, the Decision Makers (DMs) dealing with such design problems are involved in balancing the multiple, potentially conflicting attributes/criteria, transforming a large amount of customer supplied guidelines into a solidly defined set of requirement definitions. Thus, one could state with confidence that modern aerospace system design is a Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) process. A variety of existing decision making methods are available to deal with this type of decision problems. The selection of the most appropriate decision making method is of particular importance since inappropriate decision methods are likely causes of misleading engineering design decisions. With no sufficient knowledge about each of the methods, it is usually difficult for the DMs to find an appropriate analytical model capable of solving their problems. In addition, with the complexity of the decision problem and the demand for more capable methods increasing, new decision making methods are emerging with time. These various methods exacerbate the difficulty of the selection of an appropriate decision making method. Furthermore, some DMs may be exclusively using one or two specific methods which they are familiar with or trust and not realizing that they may be inappropriate to handle certain classes of the problems, thus yielding erroneous results. These issues reveal that in order to ensure a good decision a suitable decision method should be chosen before the decision making process proceeds. The first part of this dissertation proposes an MCDM process supported by an intelligent, knowledge-based advisor system referred to as Multi-Criteria Interactive Decision-Making Advisor and Synthesis process (MIDAS), which is able to facilitate the selection of the most appropriate decision making method and which provides insight to the user for fulfilling different preferences. The second part of this dissertation presents an autonomous decision making advisor which is capable of dealing with ever-evolving real time information and making autonomous decisions under uncertain conditions. The advisor encompasses a Markov Decision Process (MDP) formulation which takes uncertainty into account when determines the best action for each system state. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Optimal Solutions of Multiproduct Batch Chemical Process Using Multiobjective Genetic Algorithm with Expert Decision System

PubMed Central

Mokeddem, Diab; Khellaf, Abdelhafid

2009-01-01

Optimal design problem are widely known by their multiple performance measures that are often competing with each other. In this paper, an optimal multiproduct batch chemical plant design is presented. The design is firstly formulated as a multiobjective optimization problem, to be solved using the well suited non dominating sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). The NSGA-II have capability to achieve fine tuning of variables in determining a set of non dominating solutions distributed along the Pareto front in a single run of the algorithm. The NSGA-II ability to identify a set of optimal solutions provides the decision-maker DM with a complete picture of the optimal solution space to gain better and appropriate choices. Then an outranking with PROMETHEE II helps the decision-maker to finalize the selection of a best compromise. The effectiveness of NSGA-II method with multiojective optimization problem is illustrated through two carefully referenced examples. PMID:19543537

Decision making, cognitive distortions and emotional distress: A comparison between pathological gamblers and healthy controls.

PubMed

Ciccarelli, Maria; Griffiths, Mark D; Nigro, Giovanna; Cosenza, Marina

2017-03-01

The etiology of problem gambling is multifaceted and complex. Among others factors, poor decision making, cognitive distortions (i.e., irrational beliefs about gambling), and emotional factors (e.g., negative mood states) appear to be among the most important factors in the development and maintenance of problem gambling. Although empirical evidence has suggested that cognitive distortions facilitate gambling and negative emotions are associated with gambling, the interplay between cognitive distortions, emotional states, and decision making in gambling remains unexplored. Pathological gamblers (N = 54) and healthy controls (N = 54) completed the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS), the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), the Gambling Related Cognitions Scale (GRCS), and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS-21). Compared to healthy controls, pathological gamblers showed poorer decision making and reported higher scores on measures assessing cognitive distortions and emotional distress. All measures were positively associated with gambling severity. A significant negative correlation between decision making and cognitive distortions was also observed. No associations were found between poor decision making and emotional distress. Logistic regression analysis indicated that cognitive distortions, emotional distress, and poor decision making were significant predictors of problem gambling. The use of self-report measures and the absence of female participants limit the generalizability of the reported findings. The present study is the first to demonstrate the mutual influence between irrational beliefs and poor decision making, as well as the role of cognitive bias, emotional distress, and poor decision making in gambling disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drunk decisions: Alcohol shifts choice from habitual towards goal-directed control in adolescent intermediate-risk drinkers.

PubMed

Obst, Elisabeth; Schad, Daniel J; Huys, Quentin Jm; Sebold, Miriam; Nebe, Stephan; Sommer, Christian; Smolka, Michael N; Zimmermann, Ulrich S

2018-05-01

Studies in humans and animals suggest a shift from goal-directed to habitual decision-making in addiction. We therefore tested whether acute alcohol administration reduces goal-directed and promotes habitual decision-making, and whether these effects are moderated by self-reported drinking problems. Fifty-three socially drinking males completed the two-step task in a randomised crossover design while receiving an intravenous infusion of ethanol (blood alcohol level=80 mg%), or placebo. To minimise potential bias by long-standing heavy drinking and subsequent neuropsychological impairment, we tested 18- to 19-year-old adolescents. Alcohol administration consistently reduced habitual, model-free decisions, while its effects on goal-directed, model-based behaviour varied as a function of drinking problems measured with the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test. While adolescents with low risk for drinking problems (scoring <8) exhibited an alcohol-induced numerical reduction in goal-directed choices, intermediate-risk drinkers showed a shift away from habitual towards goal-directed decision-making, such that alcohol possibly even improved their performance. We assume that alcohol disrupted basic cognitive functions underlying habitual and goal-directed decisions in low-risk drinkers, thereby enhancing hasty choices. Further, we speculate that intermediate-risk drinkers benefited from alcohol as a negative reinforcer that reduced unpleasant emotional states, possibly displaying a novel risk factor for drinking in adolescence.

Safety of clinical and non-clinical decision makers in telephone triage: a narrative review.

PubMed

Wheeler, Sheila Q; Greenberg, Mary E; Mahlmeister, Laura; Wolfe, Nicole

2015-09-01

Patient safety is a persistent problem in telephone triage research; however, studies have not differentiated between clinicians' and non-clinicians' respective safety. Currently, four groups of decision makers perform aspects of telephone triage: clinicians (physicians, nurses), and non-clinicians (emergency medical dispatchers (EMD) and clerical staff). Using studies published between 2002-2012, we applied Donabedian's structure-process-outcome model to examine groups' systems for evidence of system completeness (a minimum measure of structure and quality). We defined system completeness as the presence of a decision maker and four additional components: guidelines, documentation, training, and standards. Defining safety as appropriate referrals (AR) - (right time, right place with the right person), we measured each groups' corresponding AR rate percentages (outcomes). We analyzed each group's respective decision-making process as a safe match to the telephone triage task, based on each group's system structure completeness, process and AR rates (outcome). Studies uniformly noted system component presence: nurses (2-4), physicians (1), EMDs (2), clerical staff (1). Nurses had the highest average appropriate referral (AR) rates (91%), physicians' AR (82% average). Clerical staff had no system and did not perform telephone triage by standard definitions; EMDs may represent the use of the wrong system. Telephone triage appears least safe after hours when decision makers with the least complete systems (physicians, clerical staff) typically manage calls. At minimum, telephone triage decision makers should be clinicians; however, clinicians' safety calls for improvement. With improved training, standards and CDSS quality, the 24/7 clinical call center has potential to represent the national standard. © The Author(s) 2015.

Using Multimodal Input for Autonomous Decision Making for Unmanned Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neilan, James H.; Cross, Charles; Rothhaar, Paul; Tran, Loc; Motter, Mark; Qualls, Garry; Trujillo, Anna; Allen, B. Danette

2016-01-01

Autonomous decision making in the presence of uncertainly is a deeply studied problem space particularly in the area of autonomous systems operations for land, air, sea, and space vehicles. Various techniques ranging from single algorithm solutions to complex ensemble classifier systems have been utilized in a research context in solving mission critical flight decisions. Realized systems on actual autonomous hardware, however, is a difficult systems integration problem, constituting a majority of applied robotics development timelines. The ability to reliably and repeatedly classify objects during a vehicles mission execution is vital for the vehicle to mitigate both static and dynamic environmental concerns such that the mission may be completed successfully and have the vehicle operate and return safely. In this paper, the Autonomy Incubator proposes and discusses an ensemble learning and recognition system planned for our autonomous framework, AEON, in selected domains, which fuse decision criteria, using prior experience on both the individual classifier layer and the ensemble layer to mitigate environmental uncertainty during operation.

Using Data Augmentation to Facilitate Conduct of Phase I–II Clinical Trials with Delayed Outcomes

PubMed Central

Jin, Ick Hoon; Liu, Suyu; Thall, Peter F.; Yuan, Ying

2014-01-01

A practical impediment in adaptive clinical trials is that outcomes must be observed soon enough to apply decision rules to choose treatments for new patients. For example, if outcomes take up to six weeks to evaluate and the accrual rate is one patient per week, on average three new patients will be accrued while waiting to evaluate the outcomes of the previous three patients. The question is how to treat the new patients. This logistical problem persists throughout the trial. Various ad hoc practical solutions are used, none entirely satisfactory. We focus on this problem in phase I–II clinical trials that use binary toxicity and efficacy, defined in terms of event times, to choose doses adaptively for successive cohorts. We propose a general approach to this problem that treats late-onset outcomes as missing data, uses data augmentation to impute missing outcomes from posterior predictive distributions computed from partial follow-up times and complete outcome data, and applies the design’s decision rules using the completed data. We illustrate the method with two cancer trials conducted using a phase I–II design based on efficacy-toxicity trade-offs, including a computer stimulation study. PMID:25382884

A collaborative scheduling model for the supply-hub with multiple suppliers and multiple manufacturers.

PubMed

Li, Guo; Lv, Fei; Guan, Xu

2014-01-01

This paper investigates a collaborative scheduling model in the assembly system, wherein multiple suppliers have to deliver their components to the multiple manufacturers under the operation of Supply-Hub. We first develop two different scenarios to examine the impact of Supply-Hub. One is that suppliers and manufacturers make their decisions separately, and the other is that the Supply-Hub makes joint decisions with collaborative scheduling. The results show that our scheduling model with the Supply-Hub is a NP-complete problem, therefore, we propose an auto-adapted differential evolution algorithm to solve this problem. Moreover, we illustrate that the performance of collaborative scheduling by the Supply-Hub is superior to separate decision made by each manufacturer and supplier. Furthermore, we also show that the algorithm proposed has good convergence and reliability, which can be applicable to more complicated supply chain environment.

A Collaborative Scheduling Model for the Supply-Hub with Multiple Suppliers and Multiple Manufacturers

PubMed Central

Lv, Fei; Guan, Xu

2014-01-01

This paper investigates a collaborative scheduling model in the assembly system, wherein multiple suppliers have to deliver their components to the multiple manufacturers under the operation of Supply-Hub. We first develop two different scenarios to examine the impact of Supply-Hub. One is that suppliers and manufacturers make their decisions separately, and the other is that the Supply-Hub makes joint decisions with collaborative scheduling. The results show that our scheduling model with the Supply-Hub is a NP-complete problem, therefore, we propose an auto-adapted differential evolution algorithm to solve this problem. Moreover, we illustrate that the performance of collaborative scheduling by the Supply-Hub is superior to separate decision made by each manufacturer and supplier. Furthermore, we also show that the algorithm proposed has good convergence and reliability, which can be applicable to more complicated supply chain environment. PMID:24892104

SWARMS: Scalable sWarms of Autonomous Robots and Mobile Sensors

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-18

Pasqualetti, Antonio Franchi , Francesco Bullo. On optimal cooperative patrolling, 2010 49th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC). 2010/12/15 00...exhibits “ global stability” Provided a complete convergence proof for the adaptive version of the range only station keeping problem. Graph Theoretic

Tools for the Assessment of Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pappas, Marjorie L.

2007-01-01

Assessment tools enable both learning and assessing. They also give library media specialists snapshots of evidence that demonstrates student understanding of the Information Literacy Standards. Over time the evidence provide a more complete picture of learners' ability to gather, evaluate, and use information to solve problems, make decisions,…

Solution Concepts for Distributed Decision-Making without Coordination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beling, Peter A.; Patek, Stephen D.

2005-01-01

Consider a single-stage problem in which we have a group N agents who are attempting to minimize the expected cost of their joint actions, without the benefit of communication or a pre-established protocol but with complete knowledge of the expected cost of any joint set of actions for the group. We call this situation a static coordination problem. The central issue in defining an appropriate solution concept for static coordination problems is considering how to deal with the fact that if the agents axe faced with a set of multiple (mixed) strategies that are equally attractive in terms of cost, a failure of coordination may lead to an expected cost value that is worse than that of any of the strategies in the set. In this proposal, we describe the notion of a general coordination problem, describe initial efforts at developing a solution concept for static coordination problems, and then outline a research agenda that centers on activities that will be basis for obtaining a complete understanding of solutions to static coordination problems.

An information processing/associative learning account of behavioral disinhibition in externalizing psychopathology.

PubMed

Endres, Michael J; Donkin, Chris; Finn, Peter R

2014-04-01

Externalizing psychopathology (EXT) is associated with low executive working memory (EWM) capacity and problems with inhibitory control and decision-making; however, the specific cognitive processes underlying these problems are not well known. This study used a linear ballistic accumulator computational model of go/no-go associative-incentive learning conducted with and without a working memory (WM) load to investigate these cognitive processes in 510 young adults varying in EXT (lifetime problems with substance use, conduct disorder, ADHD, adult antisocial behavior). High scores on an EXT factor were associated with low EWM capacity and higher scores on a latent variable reflecting the cognitive processes underlying disinhibited decision-making (more false alarms, faster evidence accumulation rates for false alarms [vFA], and lower scores on a Response Precision Index [RPI] measure of information processing efficiency). The WM load increased disinhibited decision-making, decisional uncertainty, and response caution for all subjects. Higher EWM capacity was associated with lower scores on the latent disinhibited decision-making variable (lower false alarms, lower vFAs and RPI scores) in both WM load conditions. EWM capacity partially mediated the association between EXT and disinhibited decision-making under no-WM load, and completely mediated this association under WM load. The results underline the role that EWM has in associative-incentive go/no-go learning and indicate that common to numerous types of EXT are impairments in the cognitive processes associated with the evidence accumulation-evaluation-decision process. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

An information processing/associative learning account of behavioral disinhibition in externalizing psychopathology

PubMed Central

Endres, Michael J.; Donkin, Chris; Finn, Peter R.

2014-01-01

Externalizing psychopathology (EXT) is associated with low executive working memory (EWM) capacity and problems with inhibitory control and decision-making; however, the specific cognitive processes underlying these problems are not well known. This study used a linear ballistic accumulator computational model of go/no-go associative-incentive learning conducted with and without a working memory (WM) load to investigate these cognitive processes in 510 young adults varying in EXT (lifetime problems with substance use, conduct disorder, ADHD, adult antisocial behavior). High scores on an EXT factor were associated with low EWM capacity and higher scores on a latent variable reflecting the cognitive processes underlying disinhibited decision making (more false alarms, faster evidence accumulation rates for false alarms (vFA), and lower scores on a Response Precision Index (RPI) measure of information processing efficiency). The WM load increased disinhibited decision making, decisional uncertainty, and response caution for all subjects. Higher EWM capacity was associated with lower scores on the latent disinhibited decision making variable (lower false alarms, lower vFAs and RPI scores) in both WM load conditions. EWM capacity partially mediated the association between EXT and disinhibited decision making under no-WM load, and completely mediated this association under WM load. The results underline the role that EWM has in associative – incentive go/no-go learning and indicate that common to numerous types of EXT are impairments in the cognitive processes associated with the evidence accumulation – evaluation – decision process. PMID:24611834

Efficiently Ranking Hyphotheses in Machine Learning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chien, Steve

1997-01-01

This paper considers the problem of learning the ranking of a set of alternatives based upon incomplete information (e.g. a limited number of observations). At each decision cycle, the system can output a complete ordering on the hypotheses or decide to gather additional information (e.g. observation) at some cost.

Coping Strategies and Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms in Post-ICU Family Decision Makers.

PubMed

Petrinec, Amy B; Mazanec, Polly M; Burant, Christopher J; Hoffer, Alan; Daly, Barbara J

2015-06-01

To assess the coping strategies used by family decision makers of adult critical care patients during and after the critical care experience and the relationship of coping strategies to posttraumatic stress symptoms experienced 60 days after hospitalization. A single-group descriptive longitudinal correlational study. Medical, surgical, and neurological ICUs in a large tertiary care university hospital. Consecutive family decision makers of adult critical care patients from August 2012 to November 2013. Study inclusion occurred after the patient's fifth day in the ICU. None. Family decision makers of incapacitated adult ICU patients completed the Brief COPE instrument assessing coping strategy use 5 days after ICU admission and 30 days after hospital discharge or death of the patient and completed the Impact of Event Scale-Revised assessing posttraumatic stress symptoms 60 days after hospital discharge. Seventy-seven family decision makers of the eligible 176 completed all data collection time points of this study. The use of problem-focused (p=0.01) and emotion-focused (p<0.01) coping decreased over time while avoidant coping (p=0.20) use remained stable. Coping strategies 30 days after hospitalization (R2=0.50, p<0.001) were better predictors of later posttraumatic stress symptoms than coping strategies 5 days after ICU admission (R2=0.30, p=0.001) controlling for patient and decision-maker characteristics. The role of decision maker for a parent and patient death were the only noncoping predictors of posttraumatic stress symptoms. Avoidant coping use 30 days after hospitalization mediated the relationship between patient death and later posttraumatic stress symptom severity. Coping strategy use is a significant predictor of posttraumatic stress symptom severity 60 days after hospitalization in family decision makers of ICU patients.

Empowering Physicians with Financial Literacy.

PubMed

Bar-Or, Yuval

2015-01-01

Most doctors complete their medical training without sufficient knowledge of business and finance. This leads to inefficient financial decisions, avoidable losses, and unnecessary anxiety. A big part of the problem is that the existing options for gaining financial knowledge are flawed. The ideal solution is to provide a simple framework of financial literacy to all students: one that can be adapted to their specific circumstances. That framework must be delivered by an objective expert to young physicians before they complete medical training.

[Not Available].

PubMed

Mokeddem, Diab; Khellaf, Abdelhafid

2009-01-01

Optimal design problem are widely known by their multiple performance measures that are often competing with each other. In this paper, an optimal multiproduct batch chemical plant design is presented. The design is firstly formulated as a multiobjective optimization problem, to be solved using the well suited non dominating sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). The NSGA-II have capability to achieve fine tuning of variables in determining a set of non dominating solutions distributed along the Pareto front in a single run of the algorithm. The NSGA-II ability to identify a set of optimal solutions provides the decision-maker DM with a complete picture of the optimal solution space to gain better and appropriate choices. Then an outranking with PROMETHEE II helps the decision-maker to finalize the selection of a best compromise. The effectiveness of NSGA-II method with multiojective optimization problem is illustrated through two carefully referenced examples.

OPTIMIZING USABILITY OF AN ECONOMIC DECISION SUPPORT TOOL: PROTOTYPE OF THE EQUIPT TOOL.

PubMed

Cheung, Kei Long; Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Präger, Maximilian; Jones, Teresa; Józwiak-Hagymásy, Judit; Muñoz, Celia; Lester-George, Adam; Pokhrel, Subhash; López-Nicolás, Ángel; Trapero-Bertran, Marta; Evers, Silvia M A A; de Vries, Hein

2018-01-01

Economic decision-support tools can provide valuable information for tobacco control stakeholders, but their usability may impact the adoption of such tools. This study aims to illustrate a mixed-method usability evaluation of an economic decision-support tool for tobacco control, using the EQUIPT ROI tool prototype as a case study. A cross-sectional mixed methods design was used, including a heuristic evaluation, a thinking aloud approach, and a questionnaire testing and exploring the usability of the Return of Investment tool. A total of sixty-six users evaluated the tool (thinking aloud) and completed the questionnaire. For the heuristic evaluation, four experts evaluated the interface. In total twenty-one percent of the respondents perceived good usability. A total of 118 usability problems were identified, from which twenty-six problems were categorized as most severe, indicating high priority to fix them before implementation. Combining user-based and expert-based evaluation methods is recommended as these were shown to identify unique usability problems. The evaluation provides input to optimize usability of a decision-support tool, and may serve as a vantage point for other developers to conduct usability evaluations to refine similar tools before wide-scale implementation. Such studies could reduce implementation gaps by optimizing usability, enhancing in turn the research impact of such interventions.

Decision PBL: A 4-year retrospective case study of the use of virtual patients in problem-based learning.

PubMed

Ellaway, Rachel H; Poulton, Terry; Jivram, Trupti

2015-01-01

In 2009, St George's University of London (SGUL) replaced their paper-based problem-based learning (PBL) cases with virtual patients for intermediate-level undergraduate students. This involved the development of Decision-Problem-Based Learning (D-PBL), a variation on progressive-release PBL that uses virtual patients instead of paper cases, and focuses on patient management decisions and their consequences. Using a case study method, this paper describes four years of developing and running D-PBL at SGUL from individual activities up to the ways in which D-PBL functioned as an educational system. A number of broad issues were identified: the importance of debates and decision-making in making D-PBL activities engaging and rewarding; the complexities of managing small group dynamics; the time taken to complete D-PBL activities; the changing role of the facilitator; and the erosion of the D-PBL process over time. A key point in understanding this work is the construction and execution of the D-PBL activity, as much of the value of this approach arises from the actions and interactions of students, their facilitators and the virtual patients rather than from the design of the virtual patients alone. At a systems level D-PBL needs to be periodically refreshed to retain its effectiveness.

Theory of the decision/problem state

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dieterly, D. L.

1980-01-01

A theory of the decision-problem state was introduced and elaborated. Starting with the basic model of a decision-problem condition, an attempt was made to explain how a major decision-problem may consist of subsets of decision-problem conditions composing different condition sequences. In addition, the basic classical decision-tree model was modified to allow for the introduction of a series of characteristics that may be encountered in an analysis of a decision-problem state. The resulting hierarchical model reflects the unique attributes of the decision-problem state. The basic model of a decision-problem condition was used as a base to evolve a more complex model that is more representative of the decision-problem state and may be used to initiate research on decision-problem states.

On Developing a Taxonomy for Multidisciplinary Design Optimization: A Decision-Based Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Kemper; Mistree, Farrokh

1995-01-01

In this paper, we approach MDO from a Decision-Based Design (DBD) perspective and explore classification schemes for designing complex systems and processes. Specifically, we focus on decisions, which are only a small portion of the Decision Support Problem (DSP) Technique, our implementation of DBD. We map coupled nonhierarchical and hierarchical representations from the DSP Technique into the Balling-Sobieski (B-S) framework (Balling and Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, 1994), and integrate domain-independent linguistic terms to complete our taxonomy. Application of DSPs to the design of complex, multidisciplinary systems include passenger aircraft, ships, damage tolerant structural and mechanical systems, and thermal energy systems. In this paper we show that Balling-Sobieski framework is consistent with that of the Decision Support Problem Technique through the use of linguistic entities to describe the same type of formulations. We show that the underlying linguistics of the solution approaches are the same and can be coalesced into a homogeneous framework with which to base the research, application, and technology MDO upon. We introduce, in the Balling-Sobieski framework, examples of multidisciplinary design, namely, aircraft, damage tolerant structural and mechanical systems, and thermal energy systems.

Preparing future fisheries professionals to make good decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colvin, Michael E.; Peterson, James T.

2017-01-01

Future fisheries professionals will face decision-making challenges in an increasingly complex field of fisheries management. Though fisheries students are well trained in the use of the scientific method to understand the natural world, they are rarely exposed to structured decision making (SDM) as part of an undergraduate or graduate education. Specifically, SDM encourages users (e.g., students, managers) to think critically and communicate the problem and then identify specific, measurable objectives as they relate to the problem. Next, users must think critically and creatively about management alternatives that can be used to meet the objectives—there must be more than one alternative or there is no decision to be made. Lastly, the management alternatives are evaluated with regard to how likely they are to succeed in terms of multiple, possibly completing, objectives, such as how stakeholder groups value outcomes of management actions versus monetary cost. We believe that exposure to SDM and its elements is an important part of preparing future fisheries professional to meet the challenges they may face. These challenges include reduced budgets, the growth of potentially competing natural resource interest groups, and stakeholder desire to be involved in management decisions affecting public trust resources, just to name a few.

Applying a contingency model of strategic decision making to the implementation of smoking bans: a case study.

PubMed

Willemsen, M C; Meijer, A; Jannink, M

1999-08-01

A model of strategic decision making was applied to study the implementation of worksite smoking policy. This model assumes there is no best way of implementing smoking policies, but that 'the best way' depends on how decision making fits specific content and context factors. A case study at Wehkamp, a mail-order company, is presented to illustrate the usefulness of this model to understand how organizations implement smoking policies. Interview data were collected from representatives of Wehkamp, and pre- and post-ban survey data were collected from employees. After having failed to solve the smoking problem in a more democratic way, Wehkamp's top management choose a highly confrontational and decentralized decision-making approach to implement a complete smoking ban. This resulted in an effective smoking ban, but was to some extent at the cost of employees' satisfaction with the policy and with how the policy was implemented. The choice of implementation approach was contingent upon specific content and context factors, such as managers' perception of the problem, leadership style and legislation. More case studies from different types of companies are needed to better understand how organizational factors affect decision making about smoking bans and other health promotion innovations.

Scholarly Transitions: Finding Eden in the Academic Periphery?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mathews-Aydinli, Julie

2009-01-01

How do international doctoral students in the "west" make the decision to return home when their studies are completed? Upon return, what types of re-adaptation problems do they face? Are they able to fully engage with the international academic community--or do they suffer from a form of Geertzian "exile-from-Eden" syndrome?…

Use of case-based reasoning to enhance intensive management of patients on insulin pump therapy.

PubMed

Schwartz, Frank L; Shubrook, Jay H; Marling, Cynthia R

2008-07-01

This study was conducted to develop case-based decision support software to improve glucose control in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) on insulin pump therapy. While the benefits of good glucose control are well known, achieving and maintaining good glucose control remains a difficult task. Case-based decision support software may assist by recalling past problems in glucose control and their associated therapeutic adjustments. Twenty patients with T1DM on insulin pumps were enrolled in a 6-week study. Subjects performed self-glucose monitoring and provided daily logs via the Internet, tracking insulin dosages, work, sleep, exercise, meals, stress, illness, menstrual cycles, infusion set changes, pump problems, hypoglycemic episodes, and other events. Subjects wore a continuous glucose monitoring system at weeks 1, 3, and 6. Clinical data were interpreted by physicians, who explained the relationship between life events and observed glucose patterns as well as treatment rationales to knowledge engineers. Knowledge engineers built a prototypical system that contained cases of problems in glucose control together with their associated solutions. Twelve patients completed the study. Fifty cases of clinical problems and solutions were developed and stored in a case base. The prototypical system detected 12 distinct types of clinical problems. It displayed the stored problems that are most similar to the problems detected, and offered learned solutions as decision support to the physician. This software can screen large volumes of clinical data and glucose levels from patients with T1DM, identify clinical problems, and offer solutions. It has potential application in managing all forms of diabetes.

Design decisions from the history of the EUVE science payload

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marchant, W.

1993-01-01

Some of the design issues that arose during the development of the EUVE science payload and solutions to the problems involved are examined. In particular, attention is given to the use of parallel and serial busses, the selection of the the ROM approach for software storage and execution, implementation of memory error detection and correction, and the selection of command structures. The early design decisions paid off in the timely delivery of the scientific payload and in the successful completion of the survey phase of the EUVE science mission.

Design decisions from the history of the EUVE science payload

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchant, W.

1993-09-01

Some of the design issues that arose during the development of the EUVE science payload and solutions to the problems involved are examined. In particular, attention is given to the use of parallel and serial busses, the selection of the the ROM approach for software storage and execution, implementation of memory error detection and correction, and the selection of command structures. The early design decisions paid off in the timely delivery of the scientific payload and in the successful completion of the survey phase of the EUVE science mission.

Developing Digital Dashboard Management for Learning System Dynamic Cooperative Simulation Behavior of Indonesia. (Study on Cooperative Information Organization in the Ministry of Cooperatives and SME)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eni, Yuli; Aryanto, Rudy

2014-03-01

There are problems being experienced by the Ministry of cooperatives and SME (Small and Medium Enterprise) including the length of time in the decision by the Government to establish a policy that should be taken for local cooperatives across the province of Indonesia. The decision-making process is still analyzed manually, so that sometimes the decisions taken are also less appropriate, effective and efficient. The second problem is the lack of monitoring data cooperative process province that is too much, making it difficult for the analysis of dynamic information to be useful. Therefore the authors want to fix the system that runs by using digital dashboard management system supported by the modeling of system dynamics. In addition, the author also did the design of a system that can support the system. Design of this system is aimed to ease the experts, head, and the government to decide (DSS - Decision Support System) accurately effectively and efficiently, because in the system are raised alternative simulation in a description of the decision to be taken and the result from the decision. The system is expected to be designed dan simulated can ease and expedite the decision making. The design of dynamic digital dashboard management conducted by method of OOAD (Objects Oriented Analysis and Design) complete with UML notation.

Problem Management Module: An Innovative System to Improve Problem List Workflow

PubMed Central

Hodge, Chad M.; Kuttler, Kathryn G.; Bowes, Watson A.; Narus, Scott P.

2014-01-01

Electronic problem lists are essential to modern health record systems, with a primary goal to serve as the repository of a patient’s current health issues. Additionally, coded problems can be used to drive downstream activities such as decision support, evidence-based medicine, billing, and cohort generation for research. Meaningful Use also requires use of a coded problem list. Over the course of three years, Intermountain Healthcare developed a problem management module (PMM) that provided innovative functionality to improve clinical workflow and boost problem list adoption, e.g. smart search, user customizable views, problem evolution, and problem timelines. In 23 months of clinical use, clinicians entered over 70,000 health issues, the percentage of free-text items dropped to 1.2%, completeness of problem list items increased by 14%, and more collaborative habits were initiated. PMID:25954372

Rhetorical Use of Inscriptions in Students' Written Arguments About Socioscientific Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Sihan

2018-05-01

Educators expect that students be able to make informed decisions about science-related problems in their everyday lives. Engaging science in such problems often entails evaluating available evidence for given arguments. This study explores how students use inscriptions as evidence to argue about socioscientific issues. Fifth- and sixth-grade students (N = 102) in two intact classrooms completed written argument tasks in which they were asked to cite given inscriptions to support their decisions about energy use or genetically modified organisms. Qualitative content analyses of these written arguments, which focused on the coordination between inscriptions and claims, show three patterns of rhetorical use of inscriptions: seeing is believing, believing is seeing, and asserting is inferring. What counts as evidence was not the inscriptions per se, but the rhetorical functions they performed in particular arguments. These findings suggest that justifying socioscientific decisions is functionally different from explaining scientific phenomena. Linking these two activities in school may help students more productively engage with science in their everyday lives.

Classifying with confidence from incomplete information.

DOE PAGES

Parrish, Nathan; Anderson, Hyrum S.; Gupta, Maya R.; ...

2013-12-01

For this paper, we consider the problem of classifying a test sample given incomplete information. This problem arises naturally when data about a test sample is collected over time, or when costs must be incurred to compute the classification features. For example, in a distributed sensor network only a fraction of the sensors may have reported measurements at a certain time, and additional time, power, and bandwidth is needed to collect the complete data to classify. A practical goal is to assign a class label as soon as enough data is available to make a good decision. We formalize thismore » goal through the notion of reliability—the probability that a label assigned given incomplete data would be the same as the label assigned given the complete data, and we propose a method to classify incomplete data only if some reliability threshold is met. Our approach models the complete data as a random variable whose distribution is dependent on the current incomplete data and the (complete) training data. The method differs from standard imputation strategies in that our focus is on determining the reliability of the classification decision, rather than just the class label. We show that the method provides useful reliability estimates of the correctness of the imputed class labels on a set of experiments on time-series data sets, where the goal is to classify the time-series as early as possible while still guaranteeing that the reliability threshold is met.« less

A Replication of the Internal Validity Structure of Three Major Teaching Rating Scales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peters, Scott J.; Pereira, Nielsen

2017-01-01

Even as the importance of replication research has become more widely understood, the field of gifted education is almost completely devoid of replication studies. An area in which replication is a particular problem is in student identification research, since instrument validity is a necessary prerequisite for any sound psychometric decision. To…

An Investigation of Faculty Abstention or Adoption of Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gersch, Carolyn

2017-01-01

Although faculty members are the front line adopters of technology in education, some appear to be unhurried to accept and use technology as part of their curriculum to meet institutional and student demands. The problem was that there was not a complete understanding of how faculty members made decisions on whether or not to implement new…

Latin American Medical Graduates: II. The Readaptation Process for Those Who Return Home.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gaviria, Moises; Wintrob, Ronald

1982-01-01

A discussion of the readaptation process of 70 physicians who returned to Peru to practice medicine after completing postgraduate training in the U.S. (1965-1975) covers the determinants of the decision to return; academic, familial, and adaptational problems; and the physicians' impact on medical education and health care services in Peru. (NQA)

Trade-Offs, Biases, and Uncertainty in Project Planning and Execution: A Problem-Based Simulation Exercise

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith-Daniels, Dwight E.; Smith-Daniels, Vicki L.

2008-01-01

The ability to plan and execute projects is a fundamental skill required among managers and business school graduates. In the opening phase of a project, the project team makes decisions about the relative priority of project time, cost, and performance objectives, oftentimes without complete information about customer and stakeholder…

An application of prospect theory to a SHM-based decision problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolognani, Denise; Verzobio, Andrea; Tonelli, Daniel; Cappello, Carlo; Glisic, Branko; Zonta, Daniele

2017-04-01

Decision making investigates choices that have uncertain consequences and that cannot be completely predicted. Rational behavior may be described by the so-called expected utility theory (EUT), whose aim is to help choosing among several solutions to maximize the expectation of the consequences. However, Kahneman and Tversky developed an alternative model, called prospect theory (PT), showing that the basic axioms of EUT are violated in several instances. In respect of EUT, PT takes into account irrational behaviors and heuristic biases. It suggests an alternative approach, in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights, which are strictly related to the decision maker's preferences and may change for different individuals. In particular, people underestimate the utility of uncertain scenarios compared to outcomes obtained with certainty, and show inconsistent preferences when the same choice is presented in different forms. The goal of this paper is precisely to analyze a real case study involving a decision problem regarding the Streicker Bridge, a pedestrian bridge on Princeton University campus. By modelling the manager of the bridge with the EUT first, and with PT later, we want to verify the differences between the two approaches and to investigate how the two models are sensitive to unpacking probabilities, which represent a common cognitive bias in irrational behaviors.

A Primer on Receiver Operating Characteristic Analysis and Diagnostic Efficiency Statistics for Pediatric Psychology: We Are Ready to ROC

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objective To offer a practical demonstration of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses, diagnostic efficiency statistics, and their application to clinical decision making using a popular parent checklist to assess for potential mood disorder. Method Secondary analyses of data from 589 families seeking outpatient mental health services, completing the Child Behavior Checklist and semi-structured diagnostic interviews. Results Internalizing Problems raw scores discriminated mood disorders significantly better than did age- and gender-normed T scores, or an Affective Problems score. Internalizing scores <8 had a diagnostic likelihood ratio <0.3, and scores >30 had a diagnostic likelihood ratio of 7.4. Conclusions This study illustrates a series of steps in defining a clinical problem, operationalizing it, selecting a valid study design, and using ROC analyses to generate statistics that support clinical decisions. The ROC framework offers important advantages for clinical interpretation. Appendices include sample scripts using SPSS and R to check assumptions and conduct ROC analyses. PMID:23965298

A primer on receiver operating characteristic analysis and diagnostic efficiency statistics for pediatric psychology: we are ready to ROC.

PubMed

Youngstrom, Eric A

2014-03-01

To offer a practical demonstration of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses, diagnostic efficiency statistics, and their application to clinical decision making using a popular parent checklist to assess for potential mood disorder. Secondary analyses of data from 589 families seeking outpatient mental health services, completing the Child Behavior Checklist and semi-structured diagnostic interviews. Internalizing Problems raw scores discriminated mood disorders significantly better than did age- and gender-normed T scores, or an Affective Problems score. Internalizing scores <8 had a diagnostic likelihood ratio <0.3, and scores >30 had a diagnostic likelihood ratio of 7.4. This study illustrates a series of steps in defining a clinical problem, operationalizing it, selecting a valid study design, and using ROC analyses to generate statistics that support clinical decisions. The ROC framework offers important advantages for clinical interpretation. Appendices include sample scripts using SPSS and R to check assumptions and conduct ROC analyses.

Volatile decision dynamics: experiments, stochastic description, intermittency control and traffic optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helbing, Dirk; Schönhof, Martin; Kern, Daniel

2002-06-01

The coordinated and efficient distribution of limited resources by individual decisions is a fundamental, unsolved problem. When individuals compete for road capacities, time, space, money, goods, etc, they normally make decisions based on aggregate rather than complete information, such as TV news or stock market indices. In related experiments, we have observed a volatile decision dynamics and far-from-optimal payoff distributions. We have also identified methods of information presentation that can considerably improve the overall performance of the system. In order to determine optimal strategies of decision guidance by means of user-specific recommendations, a stochastic behavioural description is developed. These strategies manage to increase the adaptibility to changing conditions and to reduce the deviation from the time-dependent user equilibrium, thereby enhancing the average and individual payoffs. Hence, our guidance strategies can increase the performance of all users by reducing overreaction and stabilizing the decision dynamics. These results are highly significant for predicting decision behaviour, for reaching optimal behavioural distributions by decision support systems and for information service providers. One of the promising fields of application is traffic optimization.

Can instruction in engineering ethics change students' feelings about professional responsibility?

PubMed

Hashemian, Golnaz; Loui, Michael C

2010-03-01

How can a course on engineering ethics affect an undergraduate student's feelings of responsibility about moral problems? In this study, three groups of students were interviewed: six students who had completed a specific course on engineering ethics, six who had registered for the course but had not yet started it, and six who had not taken or registered for the course. Students were asked what they would do as the central character, an engineer, in each of two short cases that posed moral problems. For each case, the role of the engineer was successively changed and the student was asked how each change altered his or her decisions about the case. Students who had completed the ethics course considered more options before making a decision, and they responded consistently despite changes in the cases. For both cases, even when they were not directly involved, they were more likely to feel responsible and take corrective action. Students who were less successful in the ethics course gave answers similar to students who had not taken the course. This latter group of students seemed to have weaker feelings of responsibility: they would say that a problem was "not my business." It appears that instruction in ethics can increase awareness of responsibility, knowledge about how to handle a difficult situation, and confidence in taking action.

[Breast cancer and pregnancy: decision making and the point of view of the mother].

PubMed

Eisinger, François; Noizet, Agnès

2002-09-01

For the treatment of breast cancer, modifications of decision making related to pregnancy could be assessed through three questions. Why a decision had been chosen? In that case, the hypothesis is that decisions are based on the expected utility. The theory assumes weighting and computation of complete possibilities with their associated probabilities and values. However values exhibits a wide inter-individual variation range. Therefore the predictability of choice based on this model is indeed very low. Furthermore it is likely that the willingness of pregnancy after breast cancer contains besides classic constituents of appeals of motherhood, a specific meaning of recovery both of health and femininity. The second question: who is in charge of the decision? And under the paradigm of autonomy, women' decision is, merely by itself, the right decision. The last question is how? For some situations for which foreseeing is quiet complex, the value of the process in itself is increased and could help the end-oriented or self-determined decision. Casuistic analysis could therefore improve women' decisions. The issue is not only about decision but also related to patient-physician relationship, about an issue that is not only a biomedical problem.

When Two Heads Aren't Better than One: Conformity in a Group Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fender, C. Melissa; Stickney, Lisa T.

2017-01-01

Group and team class decision-making activities often focus on demonstrating that "two heads are better than one." Typically, students solve a problem or complete an assessment individually, then in a group. Generally, the group does better and that is what the students learn. However, if that is all such an activity conveys, then a…

Democracy under uncertainty: the wisdom of crowds and the free-rider problem in group decision making.

PubMed

Kameda, Tatsuya; Tsukasaki, Takafumi; Hastie, Reid; Berg, Nathan

2011-01-01

We introduce a game theory model of individual decisions to cooperate by contributing personal resources to group decisions versus by free riding on the contributions of other members. In contrast to most public-goods games that assume group returns are linear in individual contributions, the present model assumes decreasing marginal group production as a function of aggregate individual contributions. This diminishing marginal returns assumption is more realistic and generates starkly different predictions compared to the linear model. One important implication is that, under most conditions, there exist equilibria where some, but not all, members of a group contribute, even with completely self-interested motives. An agent-based simulation confirmed the individual and group advantages of the equilibria in which behavioral asymmetry emerges from a game structure that is a priori perfectly symmetric for all agents (all agents have the same payoff function and action space but take different actions in equilibria). A behavioral experiment demonstrated that cooperators and free riders coexist in a stable manner in groups performing with the nonlinear production function. A collateral result demonstrated that, compared to a dictatorial decision scheme guided by the best member in a group, the majority/plurality decision rules can pool information effectively and produce greater individual net welfare at equilibrium, even if free riding is not sanctioned. This is an original proof that cooperation in ad hoc decision-making groups can be understood in terms of self-interested motivations and that, despite the free-rider problem, majority/plurality decision rules can function robustly as simple, efficient social decision heuristics.

Factors influencing perceptions of need for and decisions to solicit child mental health services by parents of 9-12 year-old Korean children.

PubMed

Cho, Sun-Mi; Kim, Hyun-Chung; Cho, Hyun; Shin, Yun-Mi

2007-12-01

As children with emotional or behavioral problems often fail to receive the treatment available to them, this study examined (1) the degree of perceived need (PN) among Korean parents regarding mental health services for their children, (2) the factors associated with such perceptions, (3) the degree to which Korean parents actually engage mental health services for their children, and (4) the factors associated with such use. To determine the degrees of PN and actual use, 1,058 children aged between 9 and 12 years were asked to complete the Children's Depression Inventory, while their parents completed the Child Behavior Checklist. About 11.4% of the parents demonstrated PN, compared to 2.7% who actually engaged child mental health services. While most of the CBCL factors were associated with PN, the child's self-report significantly affected the perception as well. The attention problem score in the CBCL was the only factor that strongly corresponded to the actual use of services in Korea, a country where academic achievement is considered paramount, which suggests that cultural forces may play a powerful role in determining parents' decisions regarding child mental health care.

Impacts of Maximizing Tendencies on Experience-Based Decisions.

PubMed

Rim, Hye Bin

2017-06-01

Previous research on risky decisions has suggested that people tend to make different choices depending on whether they acquire the information from personally repeated experiences or from statistical summary descriptions. This phenomenon, called as a description-experience gap, was expected to be moderated by the individual difference in maximizing tendencies, a desire towards maximizing decisional outcome. Specifically, it was hypothesized that maximizers' willingness to engage in extensive information searching would lead maximizers to make experience-based decisions as payoff distributions were given explicitly. A total of 262 participants completed four decision problems. Results showed that maximizers, compared to non-maximizers, drew more samples before making a choice but reported lower confidence levels on both the accuracy of knowledge gained from experiences and the likelihood of satisfactory outcomes. Additionally, maximizers exhibited smaller description-experience gaps than non-maximizers as expected. The implications of the findings and unanswered questions for future research were discussed.

Negotiation and Decision Making with Collaborative Software: How MarineMap 'Changed the Game' in California's Marine Life Protected Act Initiative.

PubMed

Cravens, Amanda E

2016-02-01

Environmental managers and planners have become increasingly enthusiastic about the potential of decision support tools (DSTs) to improve environmental decision-making processes as information technology transforms many aspects of daily life. Discussions about DSTs, however, rarely recognize the range of ways software can influence users' negotiation, problem-solving, or decision-making strategies and incentives, in part because there are few empirical studies of completed processes that used technology. This mixed-methods study-which draws on data from approximately 60 semi-structured interviews and an online survey--examines how one geospatial DST influenced participants' experiences during a multi-year marine planning process in California. Results suggest that DSTs can facilitate communication by creating a common language, help users understand the geography and scientific criteria in play during the process, aid stakeholders in identifying shared or diverging interests, and facilitate joint problem solving. The same design features that enabled the tool to aid in decision making, however, also presented surprising challenges in certain circumstances by, for example, making it difficult for participants to discuss information that was not spatially represented on the map-based interface. The study also highlights the importance of the social context in which software is developed and implemented, suggesting that the relationship between the software development team and other participants may be as important as technical software design in shaping how DSTs add value. The paper concludes with considerations to inform the future use of DSTs in environmental decision-making processes.

Negotiation and Decision Making with Collaborative Software: How MarineMap `Changed the Game' in California's Marine Life Protected Act Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cravens, Amanda E.

2016-02-01

Environmental managers and planners have become increasingly enthusiastic about the potential of decision support tools (DSTs) to improve environmental decision-making processes as information technology transforms many aspects of daily life. Discussions about DSTs, however, rarely recognize the range of ways software can influence users' negotiation, problem-solving, or decision-making strategies and incentives, in part because there are few empirical studies of completed processes that used technology. This mixed-methods study—which draws on data from approximately 60 semi-structured interviews and an online survey—examines how one geospatial DST influenced participants' experiences during a multi-year marine planning process in California. Results suggest that DSTs can facilitate communication by creating a common language, help users understand the geography and scientific criteria in play during the process, aid stakeholders in identifying shared or diverging interests, and facilitate joint problem solving. The same design features that enabled the tool to aid in decision making, however, also presented surprising challenges in certain circumstances by, for example, making it difficult for participants to discuss information that was not spatially represented on the map-based interface. The study also highlights the importance of the social context in which software is developed and implemented, suggesting that the relationship between the software development team and other participants may be as important as technical software design in shaping how DSTs add value. The paper concludes with considerations to inform the future use of DSTs in environmental decision-making processes.

Dysfunctional representation of expected value is associated with reinforcement-based decision-making deficits in adolescents with conduct problems.

PubMed

White, Stuart F; Tyler, Patrick M; Erway, Anna K; Botkin, Mary L; Kolli, Venkata; Meffert, Harma; Pope, Kayla; Blair, James R

2016-08-01

Previous work has shown that patients with conduct problems (CP) show impairments in reinforcement-based decision-making. However, studies with patients have not previously demonstrated any relationships between impairment in any of the neurocomputations underpinning reinforcement-based decision-making and specific symptom sets [e.g. level of CP and/or callous-unemotional (CU) traits]. Seventy-two youths [20 female, mean age = 13.81 (SD = 2.14), mean IQ = 102.34 (SD = 10.99)] from a residential treatment program and the community completed a passive avoidance task while undergoing functional MRI. Greater levels of CP were associated with poorer task performance. Reduced representation of expected values (EV) when making avoidance responses within bilateral anterior insula cortex/inferior frontal gyrus (AIC/iFG) and striatum was associated with greater levels of CP but not CU traits. The current data indicate that difficulties in the use of value information to motivate decisions to avoid suboptimal choices are associated with increased levels of CP (though not severity of CU traits). Moreover, they account for the behavioral deficits observed during reinforcement-based decision-making in youth with CP. In short, an individual's relative failure to utilize value information within AIC/iFG to avoid bad choices is associated with elevated levels of CP. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Data quality system using reference dictionaries and edit distance algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karbarz, Radosław; Mulawka, Jan

2015-09-01

The real art of management it is important to make smart decisions, what in most of the cases is not a trivial task. Those decisions may lead to determination of production level, funds allocation for investments etc. Most of the parameters in decision-making process such as: interest rate, goods value or exchange rate may change. It is well know that these parameters in the decision-making are based on the data contained in datamarts or data warehouse. However, if the information derived from the processed data sets is the basis for the most important management decisions, it is required that the data is accurate, complete and current. In order to achieve high quality data and to gain from them measurable business benefits, data quality system should be used. The article describes the approach to the problem, shows the algorithms in details and their usage. Finally the test results are provide. Test results show the best algorithms (in terms of quality and quantity) for different parameters and data distribution.

Evidence-Based Decision Making in Public Health: Capacity Building for Public Health Students at King Saud University in Riyadh.

PubMed

Wahabi, Hayfaa A; Siddiqui, Amna Rehana; Mohamed, Ashry G; Al-Hazmi, Ali M; Zakaria, Nasriah; Al-Ansary, Lubna A

2015-01-01

Translation of research evidence into public health programs is lagging in Eastern Mediterranean Region. Graduate level public health curriculum at King Saud University (KSU), College of Medicine, Riyadh, is designed to equip students to integrate best available evidence in public health decision making. The objectives of study were to explore students' opinion about the evidence based public health (EBPH) courses and to survey the knowledge, opinion, and attitude of the students towards EBPH and perceived barriers for implementation of EBPH in decision making in public health. EBPH courses are designed based on a sequential framework. A survey was conducted at the completion of EBPH courses. Forty-five graduate students were invited to complete a validated self-administered questionnaire. It included questions about demography, opinion, and attitude towards EBPH and perceived barriers towards implementation of EBPH in the work environment. The response rate was 73%. Mean age of students was 30.1 (SD 2.3) years, and 51% were males. More than 80% had sound knowledge and could appreciate the importance of EBPH. The main perceived barriers to incorporate EBPH in decision making were lack of system of communication between researchers and policy makers and scarcity of research publications related to the public health problems.

Establishing priorities for psychological interventions in pediatric settings: A decision-tree approach using the DISABKIDS-10 Index as a screening instrument

PubMed Central

Silva, Neuza; Moreira, Helena; Canavarro, Maria Cristina; Carona, Carlos

2018-01-01

Most children and adolescents with chronic health conditions have impaired health-related quality of life and are at high risk of internalizing and externalizing problems. However, few patients present clinically significant symptoms. Using a decision-tree approach, this study aimed to identify risk profiles for psychological problems based on measures that can be easily scored and interpreted by healthcare professionals in pediatric settings. The participants were 736 children and adolescents between 8–18 years of age with asthma, epilepsy, cerebral palsy, type-1diabetes or obesity. The children and adolescents completed self-report measures of health-related quality of life (DISABKIDS-10) and psychological problems (Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire). Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected from their parents/ physicians. Children and adolescents were classified into the normal (78.5%) or borderline/clinical range (21.5%) according to the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire cut-off values for psychological problems. The overall accuracy of the decision-tree model was 78.1% (sensitivity = 71.5%; specificity = 79.9%), with 4 profiles predicting 71.5% of borderline/clinical cases. The strongest predictor of psychological problems was a health-related quality of life standardized score below the threshold of 57.5 for patients with cerebral palsy, epilepsy or obesity and below 70.0 for patients with asthma or diabetes. Other significant predictors were low socio-economic status, single-parent household, medication intake and younger age. The model showed adequate validity (risk = .28, SE = .02) and accuracy (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve = .84; CI = .80/.87). The identification of pediatric patients at high risk for psychological problems may contribute to a more efficient allocation of health resources, particularly with regard to their referral to specialized psychological assessment and intervention. PMID:29852026

A Framework for Dynamic Constraint Reasoning Using Procedural Constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jonsson, Ari K.; Frank, Jeremy D.

1999-01-01

Many complex real-world decision and control problems contain an underlying constraint reasoning problem. This is particularly evident in a recently developed approach to planning, where almost all planning decisions are represented by constrained variables. This translates a significant part of the planning problem into a constraint network whose consistency determines the validity of the plan candidate. Since higher-level choices about control actions can add or remove variables and constraints, the underlying constraint network is invariably highly dynamic. Arbitrary domain-dependent constraints may be added to the constraint network and the constraint reasoning mechanism must be able to handle such constraints effectively. Additionally, real problems often require handling constraints over continuous variables. These requirements present a number of significant challenges for a constraint reasoning mechanism. In this paper, we introduce a general framework for handling dynamic constraint networks with real-valued variables, by using procedures to represent and effectively reason about general constraints. The framework is based on a sound theoretical foundation, and can be proven to be sound and complete under well-defined conditions. Furthermore, the framework provides hybrid reasoning capabilities, as alternative solution methods like mathematical programming can be incorporated into the framework, in the form of procedures.

Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Gerald W.

1995-01-01

This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

Valuation of Child Behavioral Problems from the Perspective of US Adults

PubMed Central

Craig, Benjamin M.; Brown, Derek S.; Reeve, Bryce B.

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE To assess preferences between child behavioral problems and estimate their value on a quality-adjusted life year (QALYs) scale. METHODS Respondents, age 18 or older, drawn from a nationally representative panel between August 2012 and February 2013 completed a series of paired comparisons, each involving a choice between 2 different behavioral problems described using the Behavioral Problems Index (BPI), a 28-item instrument with 6 domains (Anxious/Depressed, Headstrong, Hyperactive, Immature Dependency, Anti-social, and Peer Conflict/Social Withdrawal). Each behavioral problem lasted 1 or 2 years for an unnamed child, age 7 or 10 years, with no suggested relationship to the respondent. Generalized linear model analyses estimated the value of each problem on a QALY scale, considering its duration and child’s age. RESULTS Among 5207 eligible respondents, 4155 (80%) completed all questions. Across the 6 domains, problems relating to antisocial behavior were the least preferred, particularly the items related to cheating, lying, bullying, and cruelty to others. CONCLUSIONS The findings are the first to produce a preference-based summary measure of child behavioral problems on a QALY scale. The results may inform both clinical practice and resource allocation decisions by enhancing our understanding of difficult tradeoffs in how adults view child behavioral problems. Understanding US values also promotes national health surveillance by complementing conventional measures of surveillance, survival, and diagnoses. PMID:26209476

Valuation of Child Behavioral Problems from the Perspective of US Adults.

PubMed

Craig, Benjamin M; Brown, Derek S; Reeve, Bryce B

2016-02-01

To assess preferences between child behavioral problems and estimate their value on a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) scale. Respondents, age 18 or older, drawn from a nationally representative panel between August 2012 and February 2013 completed a series of paired comparisons, each involving a choice between 2 different behavioral problems described using the Behavioral Problems Index (BPI), a 28-item instrument with 6 domains (Anxious/Depressed, Headstrong, Hyperactive, Immature Dependency, Anti-social, and Peer Conflict/Social Withdrawal). Each behavioral problem lasted 1 or 2 years for an unnamed child, age 7 or 10 years, with no suggested relationship to the respondent. Generalized linear model analyses estimated the value of each problem on a QALY scale, considering its duration and the child's age. Among 5207 eligible respondents, 4155 (80%) completed all questions. Across the 6 domains, problems relating to antisocial behavior were the least preferred, particularly the items related to cheating, lying, bullying, and cruelty to others. The findings are the first to produce a preference-based summary measure of child behavioral problems on a QALY scale. The results may inform both clinical practice and resource allocation decisions by enhancing our understanding of difficult tradeoffs in how adults view child behavioral problems. Understanding US values also promotes national health surveillance by complementing conventional measures of surveillance, survival, and diagnoses. © The Author(s) 2015.

Temporal Constraint Reasoning With Preferences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khatib, Lina; Morris, Paul; Morris, Robert; Rossi, Francesca

2001-01-01

A number of reasoning problems involving the manipulation of temporal information can naturally be viewed as implicitly inducing an ordering of potential local decisions involving time (specifically, associated with durations or orderings of events) on the basis of preferences. For example. a pair of events might be constrained to occur in a certain order, and, in addition. it might be preferable that the delay between them be as large, or as small, as possible. This paper explores problems in which a set of temporal constraints is specified, where each constraint is associated with preference criteria for making local decisions about the events involved in the constraint, and a reasoner must infer a complete solution to the problem such that, to the extent possible, these local preferences are met in the best way. A constraint framework for reasoning about time is generalized to allow for preferences over event distances and durations, and we study the complexity of solving problems in the resulting formalism. It is shown that while in general such problems are NP-hard, some restrictions on the shape of the preference functions, and on the structure of the preference set, can be enforced to achieve tractability. In these cases, a simple generalization of a single-source shortest path algorithm can be used to compute a globally preferred solution in polynomial time.

The assessment of premorbid intellectual ability following right-hemisphere stroke: reliability of a lexical decision task.

PubMed

Gillespie, David C; Bowen, Audrey; Foster, Jonathan K

2012-01-01

Comparing current with estimated premorbid performance helps identify acquired cognitive deficits after brain injury. Tests of reading pronunciation, often used to measure premorbid ability, are inappropriate for stroke patients with motor speech problems. The Spot-the-Word Test (STWT), a measure of lexical decision, offers an alternative approach for estimating premorbid capacity in those with speech problems. However, little is known about the STWT's reliability. In the present study, a consecutive sample of right-hemisphere stroke (RHS) patients (n = 56) completed the STWT at 4 and 16 weeks poststroke. A control group, individually matched to the patients for age and initial STWT score, also completed the STWT on two occasions. More than 80% of patients had STWT scores at retest within 2 scaled score points of their initial score, suggesting that the STWT is a reliable measure for most individuals with RHS. However, RHS patients had significantly greater score change than controls. Limits of agreement analysis revealed that approximately 1 in 7 patients obtained abnormally large STWT score improvements at retest. It is concluded that although the STWT is a useful assessment tool for stroke clinicians, this instrument may significantly underestimate premorbid level of ability in approximately 14% of stroke patients.

Integrating info-gap decision theory with robust population management: a case study using the Mountain Plover.

PubMed

van der Burg, Max Post; Tyre, Andrew J

2011-01-01

Wildlife managers often make decisions under considerable uncertainty. In the most extreme case, a complete lack of data leads to uncertainty that is unquantifiable. Information-gap decision theory deals with assessing management decisions under extreme uncertainty, but it is not widely used in wildlife management. So too, robust population management methods were developed to deal with uncertainties in multiple-model parameters. However, the two methods have not, as yet, been used in tandem to assess population management decisions. We provide a novel combination of the robust population management approach for matrix models with the information-gap decision theory framework for making conservation decisions under extreme uncertainty. We applied our model to the problem of nest survival management in an endangered bird species, the Mountain Plover (Charadrius montanus). Our results showed that matrix sensitivities suggest that nest management is unlikely to have a strong effect on population growth rate, confirming previous analyses. However, given the amount of uncertainty about adult and juvenile survival, our analysis suggested that maximizing nest marking effort was a more robust decision to maintain a stable population. Focusing on the twin concepts of opportunity and robustness in an information-gap model provides a useful method of assessing conservation decisions under extreme uncertainty.

Empirical evaluation of decision support systems: Needs, definitions, potential methods, and an example pertaining to waterfowl management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sojda, R.S.

2007-01-01

Decision support systems are often not empirically evaluated, especially the underlying modelling components. This can be attributed to such systems necessarily being designed to handle complex and poorly structured problems and decision making. Nonetheless, evaluation is critical and should be focused on empirical testing whenever possible. Verification and validation, in combination, comprise such evaluation. Verification is ensuring that the system is internally complete, coherent, and logical from a modelling and programming perspective. Validation is examining whether the system is realistic and useful to the user or decision maker, and should answer the question: “Was the system successful at addressing its intended purpose?” A rich literature exists on verification and validation of expert systems and other artificial intelligence methods; however, no single evaluation methodology has emerged as preeminent. At least five approaches to validation are feasible. First, under some conditions, decision support system performance can be tested against a preselected gold standard. Second, real-time and historic data sets can be used for comparison with simulated output. Third, panels of experts can be judiciously used, but often are not an option in some ecological domains. Fourth, sensitivity analysis of system outputs in relation to inputs can be informative. Fifth, when validation of a complete system is impossible, examining major components can be substituted, recognizing the potential pitfalls. I provide an example of evaluation of a decision support system for trumpeter swan (Cygnus buccinator) management that I developed using interacting intelligent agents, expert systems, and a queuing system. Predicted swan distributions over a 13-year period were assessed against observed numbers. Population survey numbers and banding (ringing) studies may provide long term data useful in empirical evaluation of decision support.

Sell in May and Go Away? Learning and Risk Taking in Nonmonotonic Decision Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frey, Renato; Rieskamp, Jörg; Hertwig, Ralph

2015-01-01

In nonmonotonic decision problems, the magnitude of outcomes can both increase and decrease over time depending on the state of the decision problem. These increases and decreases may occur repeatedly and result in a variety of possible outcome distributions. In many previously investigated sequential decision problems, in contrast, outcomes (or…

Red Hat Enterprise Virtualization - KVM-based infrastructure services at BNL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cortijo, D.

2011-06-14

Over the past 18 months, BNL has moved a large percentage of its Linux-based servers and services into a Red Hat Enterprise Virtualization (RHEV) environment. This presentation will address our approach to virtualization, critical decision points, and a discussion of our implementation. Specific topics will include an overview of hardware and software requirements, networking, and storage; discussion of the decision of Red Hat solution over competing products (VMWare, Xen, etc); details on some of the features of RHEV - both current and on their roadmap; Review of performance and reliability gains since deployment completion; path forward for RHEV at BNLmore » and caveats and potential problems.« less

Structured decision making as a framework for large-scale wildlife harvest management decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Kelly F.; Fuller, Angela K.; Hurst, Jeremy E.; Swift, Bryan L.; Kirsch, Arthur; Farquhar, James F.; Decker, Daniel J.; Siemer, William F.

2016-01-01

Fish and wildlife harvest management at large spatial scales often involves making complex decisions with multiple objectives and difficult tradeoffs, population demographics that vary spatially, competing stakeholder values, and uncertainties that might affect management decisions. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a formal decision analytic framework for evaluating difficult decisions by breaking decisions into component parts and separating the values of stakeholders from the scientific evaluation of management actions and uncertainty. The result is a rigorous, transparent, and values-driven process. This decision-aiding process provides the decision maker with a more complete understanding of the problem and the effects of potential management actions on stakeholder values, as well as how key uncertainties can affect the decision. We use a case study to illustrate how SDM can be used as a decision-aiding tool for management decision making at large scales. We evaluated alternative white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) buck-harvest regulations in New York designed to reduce harvest of yearling bucks, taking into consideration the values of the state wildlife agency responsible for managing deer, as well as deer hunters. We incorporated tradeoffs about social, ecological, and economic management concerns throughout the state. Based on the outcomes of predictive models, expert elicitation, and hunter surveys, the SDM process identified management alternatives that optimized competing objectives. The SDM process provided biologists and managers insight about aspects of the buck-harvest decision that helped them adopt a management strategy most compatible with diverse hunter values and management concerns.

Development of a Quantitative Decision Metric for Selecting the Most Suitable Discretization Method for SN Transport Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schunert, Sebastian

In this work we develop a quantitative decision metric for spatial discretization methods of the SN equations. The quantitative decision metric utilizes performance data from selected test problems for computing a fitness score that is used for the selection of the most suitable discretization method for a particular SN transport application. The fitness score is aggregated as a weighted geometric mean of single performance indicators representing various performance aspects relevant to the user. Thus, the fitness function can be adjusted to the particular needs of the code practitioner by adding/removing single performance indicators or changing their importance via the supplied weights. Within this work a special, broad class of methods is considered, referred to as nodal methods. This class is naturally comprised of the DGFEM methods of all function space families. Within this work it is also shown that the Higher Order Diamond Difference (HODD) method is a nodal method. Building on earlier findings that the Arbitrarily High Order Method of the Nodal type (AHOTN) is also a nodal method, a generalized finite-element framework is created to yield as special cases various methods that were developed independently using profoundly different formalisms. A selection of test problems related to a certain performance aspect are considered: an Method of Manufactured Solutions (MMS) test suite for assessing accuracy and execution time, Lathrop's test problem for assessing resilience against occurrence of negative fluxes, and a simple, homogeneous cube test problem to verify if a method possesses the thick diffusive limit. The contending methods are implemented as efficiently as possible under a common SN transport code framework to level the playing field for a fair comparison of their computational load. Numerical results are presented for all three test problems and a qualitative rating of each method's performance is provided for each aspect: accuracy/efficiency, resilience against negative fluxes, and possession of the thick diffusion limit, separately. The choice of the most efficient method depends on the utilized error norm: in Lp error norms higher order methods such as the AHOTN method of order three perform best, while for computing integral quantities the linear nodal (LN) method is most efficient. The most resilient method against occurrence of negative fluxes is the simple corner balance (SCB) method. A validation of the quantitative decision metric is performed based on the NEA box-inbox suite of test problems. The validation exercise comprises two stages: first prediction of the contending methods' performance via the decision metric and second computing the actual scores based on data obtained from the NEA benchmark problem. The comparison of predicted and actual scores via a penalty function (ratio of predicted best performer's score to actual best score) completes the validation exercise. It is found that the decision metric is capable of very accurate predictions (penalty < 10%) in more than 83% of the considered cases and features penalties up to 20% for the remaining cases. An exception to this rule is the third test case NEA-III intentionally set up to incorporate a poor match of the benchmark with the "data" problems. However, even under these worst case conditions the decision metric's suggestions are never detrimental. Suggestions for improving the decision metric's accuracy are to increase the pool of employed data, to refine the mapping of a given configuration to a case in the database, and to better characterize the desired target quantities.

Lecture-based versus problem-based learning in ethics education among nursing students.

PubMed

Khatiban, Mahnaz; Falahan, Seyede Nayereh; Amini, Roya; Farahanchi, Afshin; Soltanian, Alireza

2018-01-01

Moral reasoning is a vital skill in the nursing profession. Teaching moral reasoning to students is necessary toward promoting nursing ethics. The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of problem-based learning and lecture-based methods in ethics education in improving (1) moral decision-making, (2) moral reasoning, (3) moral development, and (4) practical reasoning among nursing students. This is a repeated measurement quasi-experimental study. Participants and research context: The participants were nursing students in a University of Medical Sciences in west of Iran who were randomly assigned to the lecture-based (n = 33) or the problem-based learning (n = 33) groups. The subjects were provided nursing ethics education in four 2-h sessions. The educational content was similar, but the training methods were different. The subjects completed the Nursing Dilemma Test before, immediately after, and 1 month after the training. The data were analyzed and compared using the SPSS-16 software. Ethical considerations: The program was explained to the students, all of whom signed an informed consent form at the baseline. The two groups were similar in personal characteristics (p > 0.05). A significant improvement was observed in the mean scores on moral development in the problem-based learning compared with the lecture-based group (p < 0.05). Although the mean scores on moral reasoning improved in both the problem-based learning and the lecture-based groups immediately after the training and 1 month later, the change was significant only in the problem-based learning group (p < 0.05). The mean scores on moral decision-making, practical considerations, and familiarity with dilemmas were relatively similar for the two groups. The use of the problem-based learning method in ethics education enhances moral development among nursing students. However, further studies are needed to determine whether such method improves moral decision-making, moral reasoning, practical considerations, and familiarity with the ethical issues among nursing students.

Human-Computer Interaction with Medical Decisions Support Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adolf, Jurine A.; Holden, Kritina L.

1994-01-01

Decision Support Systems (DSSs) have been available to medical diagnosticians for some time, yet their acceptance and use have not increased with advances in technology and availability of DSS tools. Medical DSSs will be necessary on future long duration space missions, because access to medical resources and personnel will be limited. Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) experts at NASA's Human Factors and Ergonomics Laboratory (HFEL) have been working toward understanding how humans use DSSs, with the goal of being able to identify and solve the problems associated with these systems. Work to date consists of identification of HCI research areas, development of a decision making model, and completion of two experiments dealing with 'anchoring'. Anchoring is a phenomenon in which the decision maker latches on to a starting point and does not make sufficient adjustments when new data are presented. HFEL personnel have replicated a well-known anchoring experiment and have investigated the effects of user level of knowledge. Future work includes further experimentation on level of knowledge, confidence in the source of information and sequential decision making.

Robust Decision Making: The Cognitive and Computational Modeling of Team Problem Solving for Decision Making under Complex and Dynamic Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-14

AFRL-OSR-VA-TR-2015-0202 Robust Decision Making: The Cognitive and Computational Modeling of Team Problem Solving for Decision Making under Complex...Computational Modeling of Team Problem Solving for Decision Making Under Complex and Dynamic Conditions 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER FA9550-12-1...functioning as they solve complex problems, and propose the means to improve the performance of teams, under changing or adversarial conditions. By

Intuitionistic fuzzy evidential power aggregation operator and its application in multiple criteria decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Wen; Wei, Boya

2018-02-01

The theory of intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFS) is widely used for dealing with vagueness and the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory has a widespread use in multiple criteria decision-making problems under uncertain situation. However, there are many methods to aggregate intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs), but the aggregation operator to fuse basic probability assignment (BPA) is rare. Power average (P-A) operator, as a powerful operator, is useful and important in information fusion. Motivated by the idea of P-A power, in this paper, a new operator based on the IFS and D-S evidence theory is proposed, which is named as intuitionistic fuzzy evidential power average (IFEPA) aggregation operator. First, an IFN is converted into a BPA, and the uncertainty is measured in D-S evidence theory. Second, the difference between BPAs is measured by Jousselme distance and a satisfying support function is proposed to get the support degree between each other effectively. Then the IFEPA operator is used for aggregating the original IFN and make a more reasonable decision. The proposed method is objective and reasonable because it is completely driven by data once some parameters are required. At the same time, it is novel and interesting. Finally, an application of developed models to the 'One Belt, One road' investment decision-making problems is presented to illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed operator.

No-go decision: A newly identified adverse event in orthopaedic surgery - causes and medico-legal implications.

PubMed

Coudane, H; Benfrech, E; Lecoq, C; Zabee, L; Tracol, P; Danan, J L; Bruno, P Y; Lighezzolo Alnot, J

2018-06-01

No-go designates a decision not to perform surgery when it becomes apparent that safety and/or feasibility requirements are not met. No-go decisions can occur at any time between patient admission to a hospital department and immediately before the first incision. The primary objective of this study was to assess the causes of no-go decisions reported as healthcare-associated adverse events (HAAEs). Most no-go decisions in orthopaedic surgery are related to problems with medical devices. A preliminary retrospective study assessed HAAEs reported over the 1-year period from 1st October 2014 to 30th September 2015, using the risk-management tool ALARM. A prospective survey was then performed by emailing a 15-item questionnaire to the 1828 members of Orthorisq (the French orthopaedic surgeon accreditation agency). Responses were either yes/no or open. Statistical comparisons were performed, using the paired Wilcoxon signed-rank test to estimate p values. Among reported HAAEs, 5.6% were no-go decisions. Of the 101 reported no-go decisions, 43.5% and 45.2% were due to problems with managing implantable medical devices in the retrospective and prospective assessments, respectively. In over 85% of cases, surgery was cancelled or postponed. Over half the no-go decisions were associated with unnecessary anaesthesia. Checklist completion was performed in only half the cases and was not associated with no-go decisions (p>0.8). This study provides descriptive data on no-go decisions in orthopaedic surgery. Healthcare professionals use many methods to enhance patient safety by preventing adverse events or diminishing their impact. Errors in managing implantable medical devices are the leading cause of no-go decisions. The current checklist is not appropriate for managing implantable medical devices in orthopaedic surgery, in part because it does not include checking devices upon receipt. Before surgery, patients should be informed of the risk of a no-go decision, since unnecessary anaesthesia occurs in over half the cases. IV, prospective study. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

[Medical expert systems and clinical needs].

PubMed

Buscher, H P

1991-10-18

The rapid expansion of computer-based systems for problem solving or decision making in medicine, the so-called medical expert systems, emphasize the need for reappraisal of their indication and value. Where specialist knowledge is required, in particular where medical decisions are susceptible to error these systems will probably serve as a valuable support. In the near future computer-based systems should be able to aid the interpretation of findings of technical investigations and the control of treatment, especially where rapid reactions are necessary despite the need of complex analysis of investigated parameters. In the distant future complete support of diagnostic procedures from the history to final diagnosis is possible. It promises to be particularly attractive for the diagnosis of seldom diseases, for difficult differential diagnoses, and in the decision making in the case of expensive, risky or new diagnostic or therapeutic methods. The physician needs to be aware of certain dangers, ranging from misleading information up to abuse. Patient information depends often on subjective reports and error-prone observations. Although basing on problematic knowledge computer-born decisions may have an imperative effect on medical decision making. Also it must be born in mind that medical decisions should always combine the rational with a consideration of human motives.

Teaching evidence-based medical care: description and evaluation.

PubMed

Grad, R; Macaulay, A C; Warner, M

2001-09-01

This paper describes and evaluates several years of a seminar series designed to stimulate residents to seek evidence-based answers to their clinical questions and incorporate this evidence into practice. At the first session, 86 of 89 (97%) residents completed a baseline needs assessment questionnaire. Post-course self-assessment questionnaires measured change from the first to the final seminar session in six domains of interest and skill, as well as residents' preferred sources of information for clinical problem solving up to 2 years after the course. Before the seminars, 48% of residents reported that textbooks were their most important source of information for solving clinical problems. A total of 58 of 75 (77%) residents completed the first post-course questionnaire. Residents reported significant increases in skill at formulating clinical questions and searching for evidence-based answers, appraising reviews, and deciding when and how to incorporate new findings into practice. Use of secondary sources of information such as "Best Evidence," moved up in importance from before the course to after the course. First-year family practice residents who completed our seminar series have reported increased skill at blending consideration of a clinical problem with the use of secondary sources of information to access evidence to support their health care decisions.

Online gaming for learning optimal team strategies in real time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudas, Gregory; Lewis, F. L.; Vamvoudakis, K. G.

2010-04-01

This paper first presents an overall view for dynamical decision-making in teams, both cooperative and competitive. Strategies for team decision problems, including optimal control, zero-sum 2-player games (H-infinity control) and so on are normally solved for off-line by solving associated matrix equations such as the Riccati equation. However, using that approach, players cannot change their objectives online in real time without calling for a completely new off-line solution for the new strategies. Therefore, in this paper we give a method for learning optimal team strategies online in real time as team dynamical play unfolds. In the linear quadratic regulator case, for instance, the method learns the Riccati equation solution online without ever solving the Riccati equation. This allows for truly dynamical team decisions where objective functions can change in real time and the system dynamics can be time-varying.

Strategies in Forecasting Outcomes in Ethical Decision-making: Identifying and Analyzing the Causes of the Problem

PubMed Central

Beeler, Cheryl K.; Antes, Alison L.; Wang, Xiaoqian; Caughron, Jared J.; Thiel, Chase E.; Mumford, Michael D.

2010-01-01

This study examined the role of key causal analysis strategies in forecasting and ethical decision-making. Undergraduate participants took on the role of the key actor in several ethical problems and were asked to identify and analyze the causes, forecast potential outcomes, and make a decision about each problem. Time pressure and analytic mindset were manipulated while participants worked through these problems. The results indicated that forecast quality was associated with decision ethicality, and the identification of the critical causes of the problem was associated with both higher quality forecasts and higher ethicality of decisions. Neither time pressure nor analytic mindset impacted forecasts or ethicality of decisions. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:20352056

Strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers differ on decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

PubMed

Lorains, Felicity K; Dowling, Nicki A; Enticott, Peter G; Bradshaw, John L; Trueblood, Jennifer S; Stout, Julie C

2014-07-01

To analyse problem gamblers' decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity, investigate underlying psychological factors associated with their choice behaviour and examine whether decision-making differed in strategic (e.g., sports betting) and non-strategic (e.g., electronic gaming machine) problem gamblers. Cross-sectional study. Out-patient treatment centres and university testing facilities in Victoria, Australia. Thirty-nine problem gamblers and 41 age, gender and estimated IQ-matched controls. Decision-making tasks included the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and a loss aversion task. The Prospect Valence Learning (PVL) model was used to provide an explanation of cognitive, motivational and response style factors involved in IGT performance. Overall, problem gamblers performed more poorly than controls on both the IGT (P = 0.04) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.01), and their IGT decisions were associated with heightened attention to gains (P = 0.003) and less consistency (P = 0.002). Strategic problem gamblers did not differ from matched controls on either decision-making task, but non-strategic problem gamblers performed worse on both the IGT (P = 0.006) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.02). Furthermore, we found differences in the PVL model parameters underlying strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers' choices on the IGT. Problem gamblers demonstrated poor decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity. Strategic (e.g. sports betting, poker) and non-strategic (e.g. electronic gaming machines) problem gamblers differed in decision-making and the underlying psychological processes associated with their decisions. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Designing for Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jonassen, David H.

2012-01-01

Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…

Allocating conservation resources between areas where persistence of a species is uncertain.

PubMed

McDonald-Madden, Eve; Chadès, Iadine; McCarthy, Michael A; Linkie, Matthew; Possingham, Hugh P

2011-04-01

Research on the allocation of resources to manage threatened species typically assumes that the state of the system is completely observable; for example whether a species is present or not. The majority of this research has converged on modeling problems as Markov decision processes (MDP), which give an optimal strategy driven by the current state of the system being managed. However, the presence of threatened species in an area can be uncertain. Typically, resource allocation among multiple conservation areas has been based on the biggest expected benefit (return on investment) but fails to incorporate the risk of imperfect detection. We provide the first decision-making framework for confronting the trade-off between information and return on investment, and we illustrate the approach for populations of the Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae) in Kerinci Seblat National Park. The problem is posed as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), which extends MDP to incorporate incomplete detection and allows decisions based on our confidence in particular states. POMDP has previously been used for making optimal management decisions for a single population of a threatened species. We extend this work by investigating two populations, enabling us to explore the importance of variation in expected return on investment between populations on how we should act. We compare the performance of optimal strategies derived assuming complete (MDP) and incomplete (POMDP) observability. We find that uncertainty about the presence of a species affects how we should act. Further, we show that assuming full knowledge of a species presence will deliver poorer strategic outcomes than if uncertainty about a species status is explicitly considered. MDP solutions perform up to 90% worse than the POMDP for highly cryptic species, and they only converge in performance when we are certain of observing the species during management: an unlikely scenario for many threatened species. This study illustrates an approach to allocating limited resources to threatened species where the conservation status of the species in different areas is uncertain. The results highlight the importance of including partial observability in future models of optimal species management when the species of concern is cryptic in nature.

A Monte-Carlo game theoretic approach for Multi-Criteria Decision Making under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madani, Kaveh; Lund, Jay R.

2011-05-01

Game theory provides a useful framework for studying Multi-Criteria Decision Making problems. This paper suggests modeling Multi-Criteria Decision Making problems as strategic games and solving them using non-cooperative game theory concepts. The suggested method can be used to prescribe non-dominated solutions and also can be used as a method to predict the outcome of a decision making problem. Non-cooperative stability definitions for solving the games allow consideration of non-cooperative behaviors, often neglected by other methods which assume perfect cooperation among decision makers. To deal with the uncertainty in input variables a Monte-Carlo Game Theory (MCGT) approach is suggested which maps the stochastic problem into many deterministic strategic games. The games are solved using non-cooperative stability definitions and the results include possible effects of uncertainty in input variables on outcomes. The method can handle multi-criteria multi-decision-maker problems with uncertainty. The suggested method does not require criteria weighting, developing a compound decision objective, and accurate quantitative (cardinal) information as it simplifies the decision analysis by solving problems based on qualitative (ordinal) information, reducing the computational burden substantially. The MCGT method is applied to analyze California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta problem. The suggested method provides insights, identifies non-dominated alternatives, and predicts likely decision outcomes.

Semi-automated detection of anterior cruciate ligament injury from MRI.

PubMed

Štajduhar, Ivan; Mamula, Mihaela; Miletić, Damir; Ünal, Gözde

2017-03-01

A radiologist's work in detecting various injuries or pathologies from radiological scans can be tiresome, time consuming and prone to errors. The field of computer-aided diagnosis aims to reduce these factors by introducing a level of automation in the process. In this paper, we deal with the problem of detecting the presence of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury in a human knee. We examine the possibility of aiding the diagnosis process by building a decision-support model for detecting the presence of milder ACL injuries (not requiring operative treatment) and complete ACL ruptures (requiring operative treatment) from sagittal plane magnetic resonance (MR) volumes of human knees. Histogram of oriented gradient (HOG) descriptors and gist descriptors are extracted from manually selected rectangular regions of interest enveloping the wider cruciate ligament area. Performance of two machine-learning models is explored, coupled with both feature extraction methods: support vector machine (SVM) and random forests model. Model generalisation properties were determined by performing multiple iterations of stratified 10-fold cross validation whilst observing the area under the curve (AUC) score. Sagittal plane knee joint MR data was retrospectively gathered at the Clinical Hospital Centre Rijeka, Croatia, from 2007 until 2014. Type of ACL injury was established in a double-blind fashion by comparing the retrospectively set diagnosis against the prospective opinion of another radiologist. After clean up, the resulting dataset consisted of 917 usable labelled exam sequences of left or right knees. Experimental results suggest that a linear-kernel SVM learned from HOG descriptors has the best generalisation properties among the experimental models compared, having an area under the curve of 0.894 for the injury-detection problem and 0.943 for the complete-rupture-detection problem. Although the problem of performing semi-automated ACL-injury diagnosis by observing knee-joint MR volumes alone is a difficult one, experimental results suggest potential clinical application of computer-aided decision making, both for detecting milder injuries and detecting complete ruptures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Tentative Organizational Schema for Decision-Making Problems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osborn, William C.; Goodman, Barbara Ettinger

This report presents the results of research that examined widely diverse decision problems and attempted to specify their common behavior elements. To take into account the psychological complexity of most real-life decision problems, and to develop a tentative organization of decision behavior that will embrace the many, highly diverse types of…

Medical Decision-Making Incapacity among Newly Diagnosed Older Patients with Hematological Malignancy Receiving First Line Chemotherapy: A Cross-Sectional Study of Patients and Physicians

PubMed Central

Sugano, Koji; Okuyama, Toru; Iida, Shinsuke; Komatsu, Hirokazu; Ishida, Takashi; Kusumoto, Shigeru; Uchida, Megumi; Nakaguchi, Tomohiro; Kubota, Yosuke; Ito, Yoshinori; Takahashi, Kazuhisa; Akechi, Tatsuo

2015-01-01

Background Decision-making capacity to provide informed consent regarding treatment is essential among cancer patients. The purpose of this study was to identify the frequency of decision-making incapacity among newly diagnosed older patients with hematological malignancy receiving first-line chemotherapy, to examine factors associated with incapacity and assess physicians’ perceptions of patients’ decision-making incapacity. Methods Consecutive patients aged 65 years or over with a primary diagnosis of malignant lymphoma or multiple myeloma were recruited. Decision-making capacity was assessed using the Structured Interview for Competency and Incompetency Assessment Testing and Ranking Inventory-Revised (SICIATRI-R). Cognitive impairment, depressive condition and other possible associated factors were also evaluated. Results Among 139 eligible patients registered for this study, 114 completed the survey. Of these, 28 (25%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 17%-32%) were judged as having some extent of decision-making incompetency according to SICIATRI-R. Higher levels of cognitive impairment and increasing age were significantly associated with decision-making incapacity. Physicians experienced difficulty performing competency assessment (Cohen’s kappa -0.54). Conclusions Decision-making incapacity was found to be a common and under-recognized problem in older patients with cancer. Age and assessment of cognitive impairment may provide the opportunity to find patients that are at a high risk of showing decision-making incapacity. PMID:26296202

Training conservation practitioners to be better decision makers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Williams, James H.; Jensen, Gitte H.; Madsen, Jesper

2015-01-01

Traditional conservation curricula and training typically emphasizes only one part of systematic decision making (i.e., the science), at the expense of preparing conservation practitioners with critical skills in values-setting, working with decision makers and stakeholders, and effective problem framing. In this article we describe how the application of decision science is relevant to conservation problems and suggest how current and future conservation practitioners can be trained to be better decision makers. Though decision-analytic approaches vary considerably, they all involve: (1) properly formulating the decision problem; (2) specifying feasible alternative actions; and (3) selecting criteria for evaluating potential outcomes. Two approaches are available for providing training in decision science, with each serving different needs. Formal education is useful for providing simple, well-defined problems that allow demonstrations of the structure, axioms and general characteristics of a decision-analytic approach. In contrast, practical training can offer complex, realistic decision problems requiring more careful structuring and analysis than those used for formal training purposes. Ultimately, the kinds and degree of training necessary depend on the role conservation practitioners play in a decision-making process. Those attempting to facilitate decision-making processes will need advanced training in both technical aspects of decision science and in facilitation techniques, as well as opportunities to apprentice under decision analysts/consultants. Our primary goal should be an attempt to ingrain a discipline for applying clarity of thought to all decisions.

Local Approximation and Hierarchical Methods for Stochastic Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Bolong

In this thesis, we present local and hierarchical approximation methods for two classes of stochastic optimization problems: optimal learning and Markov decision processes. For the optimal learning problem class, we introduce a locally linear model with radial basis function for estimating the posterior mean of the unknown objective function. The method uses a compact representation of the function which avoids storing the entire history, as is typically required by nonparametric methods. We derive a knowledge gradient policy with the locally parametric model, which maximizes the expected value of information. We show the policy is asymptotically optimal in theory, and experimental works suggests that the method can reliably find the optimal solution on a range of test functions. For the Markov decision processes problem class, we are motivated by an application where we want to co-optimize a battery for multiple revenue, in particular energy arbitrage and frequency regulation. The nature of this problem requires the battery to make charging and discharging decisions at different time scales while accounting for the stochastic information such as load demand, electricity prices, and regulation signals. Computing the exact optimal policy becomes intractable due to the large state space and the number of time steps. We propose two methods to circumvent the computation bottleneck. First, we propose a nested MDP model that structure the co-optimization problem into smaller sub-problems with reduced state space. This new model allows us to understand how the battery behaves down to the two-second dynamics (that of the frequency regulation market). Second, we introduce a low-rank value function approximation for backward dynamic programming. This new method only requires computing the exact value function for a small subset of the state space and approximate the entire value function via low-rank matrix completion. We test these methods on historical price data from the PJM Interconnect and show that it outperforms the baseline approach used in the industry.

Clarification process: Resolution of decision-problem conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dieterly, D. L.

1980-01-01

A model of a general process which occurs in both decisionmaking and problem-solving tasks is presented. It is called the clarification model and is highly dependent on information flow. The model addresses the possible constraints of individual indifferences and experience in achieving success in resolving decision-problem conditions. As indicated, the application of the clarification process model is only necessary for certain classes of the basic decision-problem condition. With less complex decision problem conditions, certain phases of the model may be omitted. The model may be applied across a wide range of decision problem conditions. The model consists of two major components: (1) the five-phase prescriptive sequence (based on previous approaches to both concepts) and (2) the information manipulation function (which draws upon current ideas in the areas of information processing, computer programming, memory, and thinking). The two components are linked together to provide a structure that assists in understanding the process of resolving problems and making decisions.

Decisions to Attend and Drink at Party Events: The Effects of Incentives and Disincentives and Lifetime Alcohol and Antisocial Problems.

PubMed

Finn, Peter R; Gerst, Kyle; Lake, Allison; Bogg, Tim

2017-09-01

Alcohol use disorders are associated with patterns of impulsive/risky decision making on behavioral economic decision tasks, but little is known about the factors affecting drinking-related decisions. The effects of incentives and disincentives to attend and drink at hypothetical alcohol-related party events as a function of lifetime (LT) alcohol and antisocial problems were examined in a sample of 434 young adults who varied widely in LT alcohol and antisocial problems. Moderate and high disincentives substantially discouraged decisions to attend the party events and were associated with decisions to drink less at the party events. High versus low party incentives were associated with more attendance decisions. LT antisocial problems were associated with being less deterred from attending by moderate and high disincentives. LT alcohol problems were associated with greater attendance at high party incentive contexts. LT alcohol problems were associated with drinking more at the majority of events; however, the results indicate that young adults with high levels of alcohol problems moderate their drinking in response to moderate and high disincentives. Finally, attendance and drinking decisions on this hypothetical task were significantly related to actual drinking practices. The results suggest that antisocial symptoms are associated with a reduced sensitivity to the potential negative consequences of drinking, while alcohol problems are associated with a greater sensitivity to the rewarding aspects of partying. The results also underline the value of directly assessing drinking-related decisions in different hypothetical contexts as well as assessing decisions about attendance at risky drinking events in addition to drinking amount decisions. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Team formation and breakup in multiagent systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Venkatesh Guru

The goal of this dissertation is to pose and solve problems involving team formation and breakup in two specific multiagent domains: formation travel and space-based interferometric observatories. The methodology employed comprises elements drawn from control theory, scheduling theory and artificial intelligence (AI). The original contribution of the work comprises three elements. The first contribution, the partitioned state-space approach is a technique for formulating and solving co-ordinated motion problem using calculus of variations techniques. The approach is applied to obtain optimal two-agent formation travel trajectories on graphs. The second contribution is the class of MixTeam algorithms, a class of team dispatchers that extends classical dispatching by accommodating team formation and breakup and exploration/exploitation learning. The algorithms are applied to observation scheduling and constellation geometry design for interferometric space telescopes. The use of feedback control for team scheduling is also demonstrated with these algorithms. The third contribution is the analysis of the optimality properties of greedy, or myopic, decision-making for a simple class of team dispatching problems. This analysis represents a first step towards the complete analysis of complex team schedulers such as the MixTeam algorithms. The contributions represent an extension to the literature on team dynamics in control theory. The broad conclusions that emerge from this research are that greedy or myopic decision-making strategies for teams perform well when specific parameters in the domain are weakly affected by an agent's actions, and that intelligent systems require a closer integration of domain knowledge in decision-making functions.

Decision-Making Styles and Problem-Solving Appraisal.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Susan D.; And Others

1984-01-01

Compared decision-making style and problem-solving appraisal in 243 undergraduates. Results suggested that individuals who employ rational decision-making strategies approach problematic situations, while individuals who endorse dependent decisional strategies approach problematic situations without confidence in their problem-solving abilities.…

Robust optimization modelling with applications to industry and environmental problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaerani, Diah; Dewanto, Stanley P.; Lesmana, Eman

2017-10-01

Robust Optimization (RO) modeling is one of the existing methodology for handling data uncertainty in optimization problem. The main challenge in this RO methodology is how and when we can reformulate the robust counterpart of uncertain problems as a computationally tractable optimization problem or at least approximate the robust counterpart by a tractable problem. Due to its definition the robust counterpart highly depends on how we choose the uncertainty set. As a consequence we can meet this challenge only if this set is chosen in a suitable way. The development on RO grows fast, since 2004, a new approach of RO called Adjustable Robust Optimization (ARO) is introduced to handle uncertain problems when the decision variables must be decided as a ”wait and see” decision variables. Different than the classic Robust Optimization (RO) that models decision variables as ”here and now”. In ARO, the uncertain problems can be considered as a multistage decision problem, thus decision variables involved are now become the wait and see decision variables. In this paper we present the applications of both RO and ARO. We present briefly all results to strengthen the importance of RO and ARO in many real life problems.

Decision-problem state analysis methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dieterly, D. L.

1980-01-01

A methodology for analyzing a decision-problem state is presented. The methodology is based on the analysis of an incident in terms of the set of decision-problem conditions encountered. By decomposing the events that preceded an unwanted outcome, such as an accident, into the set of decision-problem conditions that were resolved, a more comprehensive understanding is possible. All human-error accidents are not caused by faulty decision-problem resolutions, but it appears to be one of the major areas of accidents cited in the literature. A three-phase methodology is presented which accommodates a wide spectrum of events. It allows for a systems content analysis of the available data to establish: (1) the resolutions made, (2) alternatives not considered, (3) resolutions missed, and (4) possible conditions not considered. The product is a map of the decision-problem conditions that were encountered as well as a projected, assumed set of conditions that should have been considered. The application of this methodology introduces a systematic approach to decomposing the events that transpired prior to the accident. The initial emphasis is on decision and problem resolution. The technique allows for a standardized method of accident into a scenario which may used for review or the development of a training simulation.

Exploring the future with anticipatory networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skulimowski, A. M. J.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a theory of anticipatory networks that originates from anticipatory models of consequences in multicriteria decision problems. When making a decision, the decision maker takes into account the anticipated outcomes of each future decision problem linked by the causal relations with the present one. In a network of linked decision problems, the causal relations are defined between time-ordered nodes. The scenarios of future consequences of each decision are modeled by multiple vertices starting from an appropriate node. The network is supplemented by one or more relations of anticipation, or future feedback, which describe a situation where decision makers take into account the anticipated results of some future optimization problems while making their choice. So arises a multigraph of decision problems linked causally and by one or more anticipation relation, termed here the anticipatory network. We will present the properties of anticipatory networks and propose a method of reducing, transforming and using them to solve current decision problems. Furthermore, it will be shown that most anticipatory networks can be regarded as superanticipatory systems, i.e. systems that are anticipatory in the Rosen sense and contain a future model of at least one other anticipatory system. The anticipatory networks can also be applied to filter the set of future scenarios in a foresight exercise.

Optimising child outcomes from parenting interventions: fathers' experiences, preferences and barriers to participation.

PubMed

Tully, Lucy A; Piotrowska, Patrycja J; Collins, Daniel A J; Mairet, Kathleen S; Black, Nicola; Kimonis, Eva R; Hawes, David J; Moul, Caroline; Lenroot, Rhoshel K; Frick, Paul J; Anderson, Vicki; Dadds, Mark R

2017-06-07

Early childhood interventions can have both immediate and long-term positive effects on cognitive, behavioural, health and education outcomes. Fathers are underrepresented in interventions focusing on the well-being of children. However, father participation may be critical for intervention effectiveness, especially for parenting interventions for child externalising problems. To date, there has been very little research conducted to understand the low rates of father participation and to facilitate the development of interventions to meet the needs of fathers. This study examined fathers' experiences of, and preferences for, parenting interventions as well as perceptions of barriers to participation. It also examined how these factors were associated with child externalising behaviour problems, and explored the predictors of participation in parenting interventions. A community sample of 1001 fathers of children aged 2-16 years completed an online survey about experiences with parenting interventions, perceived barriers to participation, the importance of different factors in their decision to attend, and preferred content and delivery methods. They also completed ratings of their child's behaviour using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Overall, 15% of fathers had participated in a parenting intervention or treatment for child behaviour, with significantly higher rates of participation for fathers of children with high versus low levels of externalising problems. Fathers rated understanding what is involved in the program and knowing that the facilitator is trained as the two most important factors in their decision to participate. There were several barriers to participation that fathers of children with high-level externalising problems were more likely to endorse, across practical barriers and help-seeking attitudes, compared to fathers of children with low-level externalising problems. Almost two-thirds of fathers of children with high-level externalising behaviour had not participated in a parenting intervention or treatment. The only significant predictors of intervention participation were severity of child externalising behaviour problems and child age. The findings have important implications for services seeking to increase father engagement and highlight a number of strategies to enhance the promotion and delivery of parenting interventions to fathers. These strategies include more public health messaging about parenting programs and the importance of father participation.

Interactions between risky decisions, impulsiveness and smoking in young tattooed women

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background According to previous studies, one of the common problems of everyday life of persons with tattoos is risky behavior. However, direct examination of the decision making process, as well as factors which determine women’s risk-taking decisions to get tattoos, have not been conducted. This study investigates whether risk taking decision-making is associated with the self-assessment impulsiveness in tattooed women. Methods Young women (aged 18–35 years) with (N = 60) and without (N = 60) tattoos, performed the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), as a measure of decision-making processes, as well as completing the Barratt Impulsivity Scale (BIS-11). Results Tattooed women showed significantly higher scores in the BIS-11 and preference for disadvantageous decks on the IGT compared to non-tattooed women. There was no significant correlation between risky decision-making in the IGT and BIS-11 impulsivity measures. A significantly higher rate of smoking was observed in the tattooed women. However, the analysis did not reveal a group effect after adjustment for smoking in the IGT and the BIS-11 measures. Conclusions The present study was specifically designed to resolve questions regarding associations between impulsiveness and risky decision-making in tattooed women. It shows that in tattooed women, risky decisions are not a direct result of their self-reported impulsiveness. Smoking does not explain the psychometric differences between tattooed women and controls. PMID:24180254

Factors affecting the decision to pursue glaucoma fellowship training.

PubMed

Gedde, Steven J; Budenz, Donald L; Haft, Payman; Lee, Yunhee; Quigley, Harry A

2007-01-01

To identify factors associated with the choice to pursue glaucoma fellowship training by graduating ophthalmology residents. An anonymous survey was sent to each graduating ophthalmology resident in the United States in February 2003. Demographic data and information relating to residency training, career goals, and factors influencing career choices were collected from the surveys. Surveys were completed by 215 (49.2%) residents, including 135 (62.8%) who were pursuing fellowships. Among residents undertaking fellowship training, 17 (12.6%) selected glaucoma and 118 (87.4%) chose other subspecialties. Residents entering glaucoma fellowships performed more glaucoma filtering procedures (P=0.006), and they were less likely to publish a paper (P=0.05) and have time allocated for research (P=0.04) than residents seeking fellowships in other subspecialties. Factors that were rated as less important to those choosing glaucoma fellowships included interest in challenging diagnostic problems (P=0.009), types of patient problems (P=0.015), an academic career (P=0.03), and working with new technology (P=0.04). The decision to pursue fellowship training was made later by residents entering glaucoma compared with those choosing other subspecialties (P=0.001). A variety of factors affect the decision to pursue fellowship training. There are differences in how these factors are weighed among residents seeking fellowships in glaucoma and other subspecialties.

The Students Decision Making in Solving Discount Problem

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abdillah; Nusantara, Toto; Subanji; Susanto, Hery; Abadyo

2016-01-01

This research is reviewing students' process of decision making intuitively, analytically, and interactively. The research done by using discount problem which specially created to explore student's intuition, analytically, and interactively. In solving discount problems, researcher exploring student's decision in determining their attitude which…

[Clinical everyday ethics-support in handling moral distress? : Evaluation of an ethical decision-making model for interprofessional clinical teams].

PubMed

Tanner, S; Albisser Schleger, H; Meyer-Zehnder, B; Schnurrer, V; Reiter-Theil, S; Pargger, H

2014-06-01

High-tech medicine and cost rationing provoke moral distress up to burnout syndromes. The consequences are severe, not only for those directly involved but also for the quality of patient care and the institutions. The multimodal model METAP (Modular, Ethical, Treatment, Allocation, Process) was developed as clinical everyday ethics to support the interprofessional ethical decision-making process. The distinctive feature of the model lays in education concerning ethics competence in dealing with difficult treatment decisions. METAP has been evaluated for quality testing. The research question of interest was whether METAP supports the handling of moral distress. The evaluation included 3 intensive care units and 3 geriatric units. In all, 33 single and 9 group interviews were held with 24 physicians, 44 nurses, and 9 persons from other disciplines. An additional questionnaire was completed by 122 persons (return rate 57%). Two-thirds of the interview answers and 55% of the questionnaire findings show that clinical everyday ethics supports the handling of moral distress, especially for interdisciplinary communication and collaboration and for the explanation and evaluation of treatment goals. METAP does not provide support for persons who are rarely confronted with ethical problems or have not applied the model long enough yet. To a certain degree, moral distress is unavoidable and must be addressed as an interprofessional problem. Herein, clinical everyday ethics may provide targeted support for ethical decision-making competence.

Finding the numerical compensation in multiple criteria decision-making problems under fuzzy environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Mahima; Mohanty, B. K.

2017-04-01

In this paper, we have developed a methodology to derive the level of compensation numerically in multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems under fuzzy environment. The degree of compensation is dependent on the tranquility and anxiety level experienced by the decision-maker while taking the decision. Higher tranquility leads to the higher realisation of the compensation whereas the increased level of anxiety reduces the amount of compensation in the decision process. This work determines the level of tranquility (or anxiety) using the concept of fuzzy sets and its various level sets. The concepts of indexing of fuzzy numbers, the risk barriers and the tranquility level of the decision-maker are used to derive his/her risk prone or risk averse attitude of decision-maker in each criterion. The aggregation of the risk levels in each criterion gives us the amount of compensation in the entire MCDM problem. Inclusion of the compensation leads us to model the MCDM problem as binary integer programming problem (BIP). The solution to BIP gives us the compensatory decision to MCDM. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a numerical example.

DATA QUALITY OBJECTIVE SUMMARY REPORT FOR THE 105 K EAST ION EXCHANGE COLUMN MONOLITH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

JOCHEN, R.M.

2007-08-02

The 105-K East (KE) Basin Ion Exchange Column (IXC) cells, lead caves, and the surrounding vault are to be removed as necessary components in implementing ''Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order'' (Ecology et al. 2003) milestone M-034-32 (Complete Removal of the K East Basin Structure). The IXCs consist of six units located in the KE Basin, three in operating positions in cells and three stored in a lead cave. Methods to remove the IXCs from the KE Basin were evaluated in KBC-28343, ''Disposal of K East Basin Ion Exchange Column Evaluation''. The method selected for removal was grouting themore » six IXCs into a single monolith for disposal at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF). Grout will be added to the IXC cells, IXC lead caves containing spent IXCs, and in the spaces between the lead cave walls and metal skin, to immobilize the contaminants, provide self-shielding, minimize void space, and provide a structurally stable waste form. The waste to be offered for disposal is the encapsulated monolith defined by the exterior surfaces of the vault and the lower surface of the underlying slab. This document presents summary of the data quality objective (DQO) process establishing the decisions and data required to support decision-making activities for the disposition of the IXC monolith. The DQO process is completed in accordance with the seven-step planning process described in EPA QA/G-4, ''Guidance for the Data Quality Objectives Process'', which is used to clarify and study objectives; define the appropriate type, quantity, and quality of data; and support defensible decision-making. The DQO process involves the following steps: (1) state the problem; (2) identify the decision; (3) identify the inputs to the decision; (4) define the boundaries of the study; (5) develop a decision rule (DR); (6) specify tolerable limits on decision errors; and (7) optimize the design for obtaining data.« less

Alpha-Fair Resource Allocation under Incomplete Information and Presence of a Jammer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altman, Eitan; Avrachenkov, Konstantin; Garnaev, Andrey

In the present work we deal with the concept of alpha-fair resource allocation in the situation where the decision maker (in our case, the base station) does not have complete information about the environment. Namely, we develop a concept of α-fairness under uncertainty to allocate power resource in the presence of a jammer under two types of uncertainty: (a) the decision maker does not have complete knowledge about the parameters of the environment, but knows only their distribution, (b) the jammer can come into the environment with some probability bringing extra background noise. The goal of the decision maker is to maximize the α-fairness utility function with respect to the SNIR (signal to noise-plus-interference ratio). Here we consider a concept of the expected α-fairness utility function (short-term fairness) as well as fairness of expectation (long-term fairness). In the scenario with the unknown parameters of the environment the most adequate approach is a zero-sum game since it can also be viewed as a minimax problem for the decision maker playing against the nature where the decision maker has to apply the best allocation under the worst circumstances. In the scenario with the uncertainty about jamming being in the system the Nash equilibrium concept is employed since the agents have non-zero sum payoffs: the decision maker would like to maximize either the expected fairness or the fairness of expectation while the jammer would like to minimize the fairness if he comes in on the scene. For all the plots the equilibrium strategies in closed form are found. We have shown that for all the scenarios the equilibrium has to be constructed into two steps. In the first step the equilibrium jamming strategy has to be constructed based on a solution of the corresponding modification of the water-filling equation. In the second step the decision maker equilibrium strategy has to be constructed equalizing the induced by jammer background noise.

Who Dares, Who Errs? Disentangling Cognitive and Motivational Roots of Age Differences in Decisions Under Risk.

PubMed

Pachur, Thorsten; Mata, Rui; Hertwig, Ralph

2017-04-01

We separate for the first time the roles of cognitive and motivational factors in shaping age differences in decision making under risk. Younger and older adults completed gain, loss, and mixed-domain choice problems as well as measures of cognitive functioning and affect. The older adults' decision quality was lower than the younger adults' in the loss domain, and this age difference was attributable to the older adults' lower cognitive abilities. In addition, the older adults chose the more risky option more often than the younger adults in the gain and mixed domains; this difference in risk aversion was attributable to less pronounced negative affect among the older adults. Computational modeling with a hierarchical Bayesian implementation of cumulative prospect theory revealed that the older adults had higher response noise and more optimistic decision weights for gains than did the younger adults. Moreover, the older adults showed no loss aversion, a finding that supports a positivity-focus (rather than a loss-prevention) view of motivational reorientation in older age.

Multi-focus image fusion with the all convolutional neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Chao-ben; Gao, She-sheng

2018-01-01

A decision map contains complete and clear information about the image to be fused, which is crucial to various image fusion issues, especially multi-focus image fusion. However, in order to get a satisfactory image fusion effect, getting a decision map is very necessary and usually difficult to finish. In this letter, we address this problem with convolutional neural network (CNN), aiming to get a state-of-the-art decision map. The main idea is that the max-pooling of CNN is replaced by a convolution layer, the residuals are propagated backwards by gradient descent, and the training parameters of the individual layers of the CNN are updated layer by layer. Based on this, we propose a new all CNN (ACNN)-based multi-focus image fusion method in spatial domain. We demonstrate that the decision map obtained from the ACNN is reliable and can lead to high-quality fusion results. Experimental results clearly validate that the proposed algorithm can obtain state-of-the-art fusion performance in terms of both qualitative and quantitative evaluations.

The Teaching Decisions Simulation: An Interactive Vehicle for Mapping Teaching Decisions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strang, Harold R.

1996-01-01

Describes the Teaching Decisions Simulation, a program that allows participants to make decisions regarding lesson plan activities and student and teacher spatial arrangement or interactions. Postlesson feedback includes variables such as completion time and performance measures. Experienced teachers exhibited more deliberation in completing the…

The use of cognitive task analysis to improve instructional descriptions of procedures.

PubMed

Clark, Richard E; Pugh, Carla M; Yates, Kenneth A; Inaba, Kenji; Green, Donald J; Sullivan, Maura E

2012-03-01

Surgical training relies heavily on the ability of expert surgeons to provide complete and accurate descriptions of a complex procedure. However, research from a variety of domains suggests that experts often omit critical information about the judgments, analysis, and decisions they make when solving a difficult problem or performing a complex task. In this study, we compared three methods for capturing surgeons' descriptions of how to perform the procedure for inserting a femoral artery shunt (unaided free-recall, unaided free-recall with simulation, and cognitive task analysis methods) to determine which method produced more accurate and complete results. Cognitive task analysis was approximately 70% more complete and accurate than free-recall and or free-recall during a simulation of the procedure. Ten expert trauma surgeons at a major urban trauma center were interviewed separately and asked to describe how to perform an emergency shunt procedure. Four surgeons provided an unaided free-recall description of the shunt procedure, five surgeons provided an unaided free-recall description of the procedure using visual aids and surgical instruments (simulation), and one (chosen randomly) was interviewed using cognitive task analysis (CTA) methods. An 11th vascular surgeon approved the final CTA protocol. The CTA interview with only one expert surgeon resulted in significantly greater accuracy and completeness of the descriptions compared with the unaided free-recall interviews with multiple expert surgeons. Surgeons in the unaided group omitted nearly 70% of necessary decision steps. In the free-recall group, heavy use of simulation improved surgeons' completeness when describing the steps of the procedure. CTA significantly increases the completeness and accuracy of surgeons' instructional descriptions of surgical procedures. In addition, simulation during unaided free-recall interviews may improve the completeness of interview data. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conscious thought beats deliberation without attention in diagnostic decision-making: at least when you are an expert

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Henk G.; Rikers, Remy M. J. P.; Custers, Eugene J. F. M.; Splinter, Ted A. W.; van Saase, Jan L. C. M.

2010-01-01

Contrary to what common sense makes us believe, deliberation without attention has recently been suggested to produce better decisions in complex situations than deliberation with attention. Based on differences between cognitive processes of experts and novices, we hypothesized that experts make in fact better decisions after consciously thinking about complex problems whereas novices may benefit from deliberation-without-attention. These hypotheses were confirmed in a study among doctors and medical students. They diagnosed complex and routine problems under three conditions, an immediate-decision condition and two delayed conditions: conscious thought and deliberation-without-attention. Doctors did better with conscious deliberation when problems were complex, whereas reasoning mode did not matter in simple problems. In contrast, deliberation-without-attention improved novices’ decisions, but only in simple problems. Experts benefit from consciously thinking about complex problems; for novices thinking does not help in those cases. PMID:20354726

Conscious thought beats deliberation without attention in diagnostic decision-making: at least when you are an expert.

PubMed

Mamede, Sílvia; Schmidt, Henk G; Rikers, Remy M J P; Custers, Eugene J F M; Splinter, Ted A W; van Saase, Jan L C M

2010-11-01

Contrary to what common sense makes us believe, deliberation without attention has recently been suggested to produce better decisions in complex situations than deliberation with attention. Based on differences between cognitive processes of experts and novices, we hypothesized that experts make in fact better decisions after consciously thinking about complex problems whereas novices may benefit from deliberation-without-attention. These hypotheses were confirmed in a study among doctors and medical students. They diagnosed complex and routine problems under three conditions, an immediate-decision condition and two delayed conditions: conscious thought and deliberation-without-attention. Doctors did better with conscious deliberation when problems were complex, whereas reasoning mode did not matter in simple problems. In contrast, deliberation-without-attention improved novices' decisions, but only in simple problems. Experts benefit from consciously thinking about complex problems; for novices thinking does not help in those cases.

Ethical Decisions in Palliative Care: Interprofessional Relations as a Burnout Protective Factor? Results From a Mixed-Methods Multicenter Study in Portugal.

PubMed

Hernández-Marrero, Pablo; Pereira, Sandra Martins; Carvalho, Ana Sofia

2016-09-01

Ethical decisions are part of contemporary practices in palliative care. The need of making such decisions is associated to higher burnout levels and other work related problems among healthcare professionals. As part of the project entitled "Decisions in End-of-Life Care in Spain and Portugal" (DELiCaSP), this study aims to (i) identify the most common ethical decisions made by Portuguese palliative care teams and (ii) understand how the making of such decisions relates to burnout. A mixed methods study was conducted with 9 palliative care teams, using (i) questionnaires of socio-demographic and professional variables, work-related experiences, (ii) the Maslach Burnout Inventory, (iii) interviews and (iv) observations. These teams were geographically dispersed across the country, covering the North, Centrum and South regions, and heterogeneous: Five palliative care units for inpatients; three home care teams; and one hospital support team. A total of 20 interviews and 240 hours of observations were completed until reaching saturation. The most common ethical decisions were related to communication issues (information disclosure of the diagnosis and prognosis), forgoing treatment and sedation. Although perceived as stressful, emotionally demanding and challenging, ethical decisions were not significantly associated with burnout. Making ethical decisions is not associated with higher burnout levels among professionals working in Portuguese palliative care teams. This can be explained by the interprofessional decision-making process followed by these teams, which promotes a sense of shared-decision and team-based empowerment; and by the advanced level of interdisciplinary education in palliative care that these professionals have. © The Author(s) 2015.

Decision e Informacion en Solucion de Problemas. Publicacion No. 77 (Information and Decision Making in Problem Solving. Publication No. 77).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rimoldi, Horacio J. A.; And Others

A technique using information and decision-making theories to evaluate problem solving tactics is presented. In problem solving, the process of solution is evaluated by investigating the questions that the subject doing the problem solving asks. The sequence of questions asked is called a tactic. It is assumed that: (1) tactics are the observable…

A comparison of representations for discrete multi-criteria decision problems☆

PubMed Central

Gettinger, Johannes; Kiesling, Elmar; Stummer, Christian; Vetschera, Rudolf

2013-01-01

Discrete multi-criteria decision problems with numerous Pareto-efficient solution candidates place a significant cognitive burden on the decision maker. An interactive, aspiration-based search process that iteratively progresses toward the most preferred solution can alleviate this task. In this paper, we study three ways of representing such problems in a DSS, and compare them in a laboratory experiment using subjective and objective measures of the decision process as well as solution quality and problem understanding. In addition to an immediate user evaluation, we performed a re-evaluation several weeks later. Furthermore, we consider several levels of problem complexity and user characteristics. Results indicate that different problem representations have a considerable influence on search behavior, although long-term consistency appears to remain unaffected. We also found interesting discrepancies between subjective evaluations and objective measures. Conclusions from our experiments can help designers of DSS for large multi-criteria decision problems to fit problem representations to the goals of their system and the specific task at hand. PMID:24882912

Solving multi-objective optimization problems in conservation with the reference point method

PubMed Central

Dujardin, Yann; Chadès, Iadine

2018-01-01

Managing the biodiversity extinction crisis requires wise decision-making processes able to account for the limited resources available. In most decision problems in conservation biology, several conflicting objectives have to be taken into account. Most methods used in conservation either provide suboptimal solutions or use strong assumptions about the decision-maker’s preferences. Our paper reviews some of the existing approaches to solve multi-objective decision problems and presents new multi-objective linear programming formulations of two multi-objective optimization problems in conservation, allowing the use of a reference point approach. Reference point approaches solve multi-objective optimization problems by interactively representing the preferences of the decision-maker with a point in the criteria (objectives) space, called the reference point. We modelled and solved the following two problems in conservation: a dynamic multi-species management problem under uncertainty and a spatial allocation resource management problem. Results show that the reference point method outperforms classic methods while illustrating the use of an interactive methodology for solving combinatorial problems with multiple objectives. The method is general and can be adapted to a wide range of ecological combinatorial problems. PMID:29293650

Applications of Decision Theory to Test-Based Decision Making. Project Psychometric Aspects of Item Banking No. 23. Research Report 87-9.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Linden, Wim J.

The use of Bayesian decision theory to solve problems in test-based decision making is discussed. Four basic decision problems are distinguished: (1) selection; (2) mastery; (3) placement; and (4) classification, the situation where each treatment has its own criterion. Each type of decision can be identified as a specific configuration of one or…

Some Problems in Educational Administration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lyons, Raymond F.

1977-01-01

Educational administration problems in developing countries are discussed. Possible solutions to problems of decision-making, decision implementation, communications, task definition, and financial control are suggested. (Author/DB)

Constructing a relevant decision aid for parents of children with bronchopulmonary dysplasia.

PubMed

Skibo, M; Guillen, U; Zhang, H; Munson, D; Mackley, A; Nilan, K; Kirpalani, H

2017-12-01

To develop and test a decision aid for counseling parents of children with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD).Local problem:Parental education about complex conditions is not standardized and communication and understanding may not be adequate. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 33 neonatal clinicians and 12 parents of children with BPD using a qualitative research design. The interviews were used to identify education topics that were felt to be important in BPD education. These topics were then used to create a visual decision aid to be used in counseling sessions with parents. The decision aid was then used in mock counseling sessions with 15 'experienced' participants and 7 'naïve' participants to assess its efficacy. The participants completed a pre and post test to assess change in knowledge as well as an 11-question Likert style acceptability survey. Implementation of a decision aid while educating parents about BPD. Topics identified during the interviews were used to create eight educational cards which included pictures, pictographs and statistics. Overall, participants thought the decision aid contained an appropriate amount of information, were easy to understand and improved their knowledge about BPD. Testing demonstrated a significant increase in knowledge in both the 'experienced' (P<0.0001) and 'naïve' group (P=0.0064). A decision aid for parents of children with BPD may improve understanding of the condition and help facilitate communication between parents and doctors.

Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

Treesearch

Bruce G. Marcot; Matthew P. Thompson; Michael C. Runge; Frank R. Thompson; Steven McNulty; David Cleaves; Monica Tomosy; Larry A. Fisher; Andrew Bliss

2012-01-01

Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem...

The Effects of Gender on Career Decision Problems in Young Adults.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larson, Jeffry H.; And Others

1994-01-01

Investigated gender differences in psychological problems--decision anxiety, life-goal awareness, and others--in the career decision-making process (CDM) of 1,006 college students. Results indicated no gender differences in global levels of problems in CDM. Some specific difficulties, such as life-goal awareness and authority orientation, were…

A problem solving and decision making toolbox for approaching clinical problems and decisions.

PubMed

Margolis, C; Jotkowitz, A; Sitter, H

2004-08-01

In this paper, we begin by presenting three real patients and then review all the practical conceptual tools that have been suggested for systematically analyzing clinical problems. Each of these conceptual tools (e.g. Evidence-Based Medicine, Clinical Practice Guidelines, Decision Analysis) deals mainly with a different type or aspect of clinical problems. We suggest that all of these conceptual tools can be thought of as belonging in the clinician's toolbox for solving clinical problems and making clinical decisions. A heuristic for guiding the clinician in using the tools is proposed. The heuristic is then used to analyze management of the three patients presented at the outset. Copyright 2004 Birkhäuser Verlag, Basel

Neuroethology of Decision-making

PubMed Central

Adams, Geoffrey K.; Watson, Karli K.; Pearson, John; Platt, Michael L.

2012-01-01

A neuroethological approach to decision-making considers the effect of evolutionary pressures on neural circuits mediating choice. In this view, decision systems are expected to enhance fitness with respect to the local environment, and particularly efficient solutions to specific problems should be conserved, expanded, and repurposed to solve other problems. Here, we discuss basic prerequisites for a variety of decision systems from this viewpoint. We focus on two of the best-studied and most widely represented decision problems. First, we examine patch leaving, a prototype of environmentally based switching between action patterns. Second, we consider social information seeking, a process resembling foraging with search costs. We argue that while the specific neural solutions to these problems sometimes differ across species, both the problems themselves and the algorithms instantiated by biological hardware are repeated widely throughout nature. The behavioral and mathematical study of ubiquitous decision processes like patch leaving and social information seeking thus provides a powerful new approach to uncovering the fundamental design structure of nervous systems. PMID:22902613

ADHD symptoms and benefit from extended time testing accommodations.

PubMed

Lovett, Benjamin J; Leja, Ashley M

2015-02-01

To investigate the relationship between ADHD symptoms, executive functioning problems, and benefit from extended time testing accommodations. College students completed a battery of measures assessing processing speed and reading fluency, reading comprehension (under two different time limits), symptoms of ADHD, executive functioning deficits, and perceptions of need for extended time. Students reporting more symptoms of ADHD and executive functioning deficits actually benefited less from extended time, and students' perceptions of their timing needs did not predict benefit. Students with more ADHD symptoms are less likely to use extended time effectively, possibly because of their associated executive functioning problems. These results suggest there may be little justification for examining a student's ADHD symptoms when making extended time accommodation decisions. © 2013 SAGE Publications.

A Self-Organizing Incremental Spatiotemporal Associative Memory Networks Model for Problems with Hidden State

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Identifying the hidden state is important for solving problems with hidden state. We prove any deterministic partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) can be represented by a minimal, looping hidden state transition model and propose a heuristic state transition model constructing algorithm. A new spatiotemporal associative memory network (STAMN) is proposed to realize the minimal, looping hidden state transition model. STAMN utilizes the neuroactivity decay to realize the short-term memory, connection weights between different nodes to represent long-term memory, presynaptic potentials, and synchronized activation mechanism to complete identifying and recalling simultaneously. Finally, we give the empirical illustrations of the STAMN and compare the performance of the STAMN model with that of other methods. PMID:27891146

Intersubjective decision-making for computer-aided forging technology design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanyukov, S. I.; Konovalov, A. V.; Muizemnek, O. Yu.

2017-12-01

We propose a concept of intersubjective decision-making for problems of open-die forging technology design. The intersubjective decisions are chosen from a set of feasible decisions using the fundamentals of the decision-making theory in fuzzy environment according to the Bellman-Zadeh scheme. We consider the formalization of subjective goals and the choice of membership functions for the decisions depending on subjective goals. We study the arrangement of these functions into an intersubjective membership function. The function is constructed for a resulting decision, which is chosen from a set of feasible decisions. The choice of the final intersubjective decision is discussed. All the issues are exemplified by a specific technological problem. The considered concept of solving technological problems under conditions of fuzzy goals allows one to choose the most efficient decisions from a set of feasible ones. These decisions correspond to the stated goals. The concept allows one to reduce human participation in automated design. This concept can be used to develop algorithms and design programs for forging numerous types of forged parts.

Equipment Selection by using Fuzzy TOPSIS Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yavuz, Mahmut

2016-10-01

In this study, Fuzzy TOPSIS method was performed for the selection of open pit truck and the optimal solution of the problem was investigated. Data from Turkish Coal Enterprises was used in the application of the method. This paper explains the Fuzzy TOPSIS approaches with group decision-making application in an open pit coal mine in Turkey. An algorithm of the multi-person multi-criteria decision making with fuzzy set approach was applied an equipment selection problem. It was found that Fuzzy TOPSIS with a group decision making is a method that may help decision-makers in solving different decision-making problems in mining.

Attending Surgeons' Leadership Style in the Operating Room: Comparing Junior Residents' Experiences and Preferences.

PubMed

Kissane-Lee, Nicole A; Yule, Steven; Pozner, Charles N; Smink, Douglas S

2016-01-01

Recent studies have focused on surgeons' nontechnical skills in the operating room (OR), especially leadership. In an attempt to identify trainee preferences, we explored junior residents' opinions about the OR leadership style of teaching faculty. Overall, 20 interns and 20 mid-level residents completed a previously validated survey on the style of leadership they encountered, the style they preferred to receive, and the style they personally employed in the OR. In all, 4 styles were explored; authoritative: leader makes decisions and communicates them firmly; explanatory: leader makes decisions promptly, but explains them fully; consultative: leader consults with trainees when important decisions are made, and delegative: leader puts the problem before the group and makes decisions by majority opinion. Comparisons were completed using chi-square analysis. Junior resident preference for leadership style of attending surgeons in the OR differed from what they encountered. Overall, 62% of residents encountered an authoritative leadership style; however, only 9% preferred this (p < 0.001). Instead, residents preferred explanatory (53%) or consultative styles (41%). Preferences differed by postgraduate year. Although 40% of interns preferred a consultative style, 50% of mid-level residents preferred explanatory leadership. Junior resident preference of leadership style in the OR differs from what they actually encounter. This has the potential to create unwanted tension and may erode team performance. Awareness of this difference provides an opportunity for an educational intervention directed at both attendings and trainees. Copyright © 2015 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Making college worth it: a review of the returns to higher education.

PubMed

Oreopoulos, Philip; Petronijevic, Uros

2013-01-01

Despite a general rise in the return to college, likely due to technological change, the cost-benefit calculus facing prospective students can make the decision to invest in and attend college dauntingly complex. Philip Oreopoulos and Uros Petronijevic review research on the varying costs and benefits of higher education and explore in full the complexity of the decision to invest in and attend college. Optimal college attainment decisions are different for all prospective students, who diverge in terms of what they are likely to get out of higher education and what specific options might be best for them. Earnings of college graduates depend in important measure on the program of study and eventual occupation they choose. Students uninterested in or unable to complete a four-year college degree appear to benefit from completing a two-year degree. Prospective students may also face both financial constraints, which prohibit them from taking advantage of more education, and information problems and behavioral idiosyncrasies, such as reluctance to take on debt, which keep them from making optimal decisions about attending college. In their discussion of how student debt figures in the college investment, the authors note that some students borrow too little and, as a result, underinvest in their education. Carefully calculating the return on the college investment can help determine the "appropriate" amount of debt. Students are more likely to benefit from postsecondary education the more informed they are about the expenses associated with college and the potential options for financial aid, which can be extremely complex. To make the best college investment, Oreopoulos and Petronijevic stress, prospective students must give careful consideration to selecting the institution itself, the major to follow, and the eventual occupation to pursue. For any particular program at a particular school, anticipated future labor market earnings, the likelihood of completion, the costs, and the value of any student debt must all be factored into the assessment.

Removable partial dentures vs overdentures in children with ectodermal dysplasia: two case reports.

PubMed

Maroulakos, G; Artopoulou, I I; Angelopoulou, M V; Emmanouil, D

2016-06-01

Ectodermal dysplasia (ED) represents a disorder group characterised by abnormal development of the ectodermal derivatives. Removable partial dentures (RPD), complete dentures (CD) or overdentures (OD) are most often the treatment of choice for young affected patients. Prosthetic intervention is of utmost importance in the management of ED patients, as it resolves problems associated with functional, aesthetic, and psychological issues, and improves a patient's quality of life. However, few studies present the principles and guidelines that can assist in the decision-making process of the most appropriate removable prosthesis. The purpose of this study was to suggest a simple treatment decision-making algorithm for selecting an effective and individualised rehabilitative treatment plan, considering different parameters. The cases and treatment of two young ED patients are described and each one was treated with either RPDs or ODs. Periodic recalls were employed to manage problems, and monitor the changes associated with occlusion and fit of the prostheses in relation to each patient's growth. Both patients were followed up for more than 2 years and reported significant improvement in their appearance, masticatory function, and social behaviour as a result of the prosthetic rehabilitation. The main factors guiding the decision process towards the choice of an RPD or an OD are the presence of posterior natural teeth, facial aesthetics, lip support, number and size of existing natural teeth, and the occlusal vertical dimension.

Cooperation, psychological game theory, and limitations of rationality in social interaction.

PubMed

Colman, Andrew M

2003-04-01

Rational choice theory enjoys unprecedented popularity and influence in the behavioral and social sciences, but it generates intractable problems when applied to socially interactive decisions. In individual decisions, instrumental rationality is defined in terms of expected utility maximization. This becomes problematic in interactive decisions, when individuals have only partial control over the outcomes, because expected utility maximization is undefined in the absence of assumptions about how the other participants will behave. Game theory therefore incorporates not only rationality but also common knowledge assumptions, enabling players to anticipate their co-players' strategies. Under these assumptions, disparate anomalies emerge. Instrumental rationality, conventionally interpreted, fails to explain intuitively obvious features of human interaction, yields predictions starkly at variance with experimental findings, and breaks down completely in certain cases. In particular, focal point selection in pure coordination games is inexplicable, though it is easily achieved in practice; the intuitively compelling payoff-dominance principle lacks rational justification; rationality in social dilemmas is self-defeating; a key solution concept for cooperative coalition games is frequently inapplicable; and rational choice in certain sequential games generates contradictions. In experiments, human players behave more cooperatively and receive higher payoffs than strict rationality would permit. Orthodox conceptions of rationality are evidently internally deficient and inadequate for explaining human interaction. Psychological game theory, based on nonstandard assumptions, is required to solve these problems, and some suggestions along these lines have already been put forward.

Assessing social and economic effects of perceived risk: Workshop summary: Draft: BWIP Repository Project. [Basalt Waste Isolation Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nealey, S.M.; Liebow, E.B.

1988-03-01

The US Department of Energy sponsored a one-day workshop to discuss the complex dimensions of risk judgment formation and the assessment of social and economic effects of risk perceptions related to the permanent underground storage of highly radioactive waste from commercial nuclear power plants. Affected parties have publicly expressed concerns about potentially significant risk-related effects of this approach to waste management. A selective review of relevant literature in psychology, decision analysis, economics, sociology, and anthropology was completed, along with an examination of decision analysis techniques that might assist in developing suitable responses to public risk-related concerns. The workshop was organizedmore » as a forum in which a set of distinguished experts could exchange ideas and observations about the problems of characterizing the effects of risk judgments. Out of the exchange emerged the issues or themes of problems with probabilistic risk assessment techniques are evident; differences exist in the way experts and laypersons view risk, and this leads to higher levels of public concern than experts feel are justified; experts, risk managers, and decision-makers sometimes err in assessing risk and in dealing with the public; credibility and trust are important contributing factors in the formation of risk judgments; social and economic consequences of perceived risk should be properly anticipated; improvements can be made in informing the public about risk; the role of the public in risk assessment, risk management and decisions about risk should be reconsidered; and mitigation and compensation are central to resolving conflicts arising from divergent risk judgments. 1 tab.« less

Integrated production and distribution scheduling problems related to fixed delivery departure dates and weights of late orders.

PubMed

Li, Shanlin; Li, Maoqin

2015-01-01

We consider an integrated production and distribution scheduling problem faced by a typical make-to-order manufacturer which relies on a third-party logistics (3PL) provider for finished product delivery to customers. In the beginning of a planning horizon, the manufacturer has received a set of orders to be processed on a single production line. Completed orders are delivered to customers by a finite number of vehicles provided by the 3PL company which follows a fixed daily or weekly shipping schedule such that the vehicles have fixed departure dates which are not part of the decisions. The problem is to find a feasible schedule that minimizes one of the following objective functions when processing times and weights are oppositely ordered: (1) the total weight of late orders and (2) the number of vehicles used subject to the condition that the total weight of late orders is minimum. We show that both problems are solvable in polynomial time.

Integrated Production and Distribution Scheduling Problems Related to Fixed Delivery Departure Dates and Weights of Late Orders

PubMed Central

Li, Shanlin; Li, Maoqin

2015-01-01

We consider an integrated production and distribution scheduling problem faced by a typical make-to-order manufacturer which relies on a third-party logistics (3PL) provider for finished product delivery to customers. In the beginning of a planning horizon, the manufacturer has received a set of orders to be processed on a single production line. Completed orders are delivered to customers by a finite number of vehicles provided by the 3PL company which follows a fixed daily or weekly shipping schedule such that the vehicles have fixed departure dates which are not part of the decisions. The problem is to find a feasible schedule that minimizes one of the following objective functions when processing times and weights are oppositely ordered: (1) the total weight of late orders and (2) the number of vehicles used subject to the condition that the total weight of late orders is minimum. We show that both problems are solvable in polynomial time. PMID:25785285

New Hardness Results for Diophantine Approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisenbrand, Friedrich; Rothvoß, Thomas

We revisit simultaneous Diophantine approximation, a classical problem from the geometry of numbers which has many applications in algorithms and complexity. The input to the decision version of this problem consists of a rational vector α ∈ ℚ n , an error bound ɛ and a denominator bound N ∈ ℕ + . One has to decide whether there exists an integer, called the denominator Q with 1 ≤ Q ≤ N such that the distance of each number Q ·α i to its nearest integer is bounded by ɛ. Lagarias has shown that this problem is NP-complete and optimization versions have been shown to be hard to approximate within a factor n c/ loglogn for some constant c > 0. We strengthen the existing hardness results and show that the optimization problem of finding the smallest denominator Q ∈ ℕ + such that the distances of Q·α i to the nearest integer are bounded by ɛ is hard to approximate within a factor 2 n unless {textrm{P}} = NP.

Problems for judgment and decision making.

PubMed

Hastie, R

2001-01-01

This review examines recent developments during the past 5 years in the field of judgment and decision making, written in the form of a list of 16 research problems. Many of the problems involve natural extensions of traditional, originally rational, theories of decision making. Others are derived from descriptive algebraic modeling approaches or from recent developments in cognitive psychology and cognitive neuroscience.

A practical guide to assessing clinical decision-making skills using the key features approach.

PubMed

Farmer, Elizabeth A; Page, Gordon

2005-12-01

This paper in the series on professional assessment provides a practical guide to writing key features problems (KFPs). Key features problems test clinical decision-making skills in written or computer-based formats. They are based on the concept of critical steps or 'key features' in decision making and represent an advance on the older, less reliable patient management problem (PMP) formats. The practical steps in writing these problems are discussed and illustrated by examples. Steps include assembling problem-writing groups, selecting a suitable clinical scenario or problem and defining its key features, writing the questions, selecting question response formats, preparing scoring keys, reviewing item quality and item banking. The KFP format provides educators with a flexible approach to testing clinical decision-making skills with demonstrated validity and reliability when constructed according to the guidelines provided.

Making objective decisions in mechanical engineering problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raicu, A.; Oanta, E.; Sabau, A.

2017-08-01

Decision making process has a great influence in the development of a given project, the goal being to select an optimal choice in a given context. Because of its great importance, the decision making was studied using various science methods, finally being conceived the game theory that is considered the background for the science of logical decision making in various fields. The paper presents some basic ideas regarding the game theory in order to offer the necessary information to understand the multiple-criteria decision making (MCDM) problems in engineering. The solution is to transform the multiple-criteria problem in a one-criterion decision problem, using the notion of utility, together with the weighting sum model or the weighting product model. The weighted importance of the criteria is computed using the so-called Step method applied to a relation of preferences between the criteria. Two relevant examples from engineering are also presented. The future directions of research consist of the use of other types of criteria, the development of computer based instruments for decision making general problems and to conceive a software module based on expert system principles to be included in the Wiki software applications for polymeric materials that are already operational.

Stop making plans; start making decisions.

PubMed

Mankins, Michael C; Steele, Richard

2006-01-01

Many executives have grown skeptical of strategic planning. Is it any wonder? Despite all the time and energy that go into it, strategic planning most often acts as a barrier to good decision making and does little to influence strategy. Strategic planning fails because of two factors: It typically occurs annually, and it focuses on individual business units. As such, the process is completely at odds with the way executives actually make important strategy decisions, which are neither constrained by the calendar nor defined by unit boundaries. Thus, according to a survey of 156 large companies, senior executives often make strategic decisions outside the planning process, in an ad hoc fashion and without rigorous analysis or productive debate. But companies can fix the process if they attack its root problems. A few forward-looking firms have thrown out their calendar-driven, business-unit-focused planning procedures and replaced them with continuous, issues-focused decision making. In doing so, they rely on several basic principles: They separate, but integrate, decision making and plan making. They focus on a few key themes. And they structure strategy reviews to produce real decisions. When companies change the timing and focus of strategic planning, they also change the nature of senior management's discussions about strategy--from "review and approve" to "debate and decide," in which top executives actively think through every major decision and its implications for the company's performance and value. The authors have found that these companies make more than twice as many important strategic decisions per year as companies that follow the traditional planning model.

Maternal depression and trajectories of child internalizing and externalizing problems: the roles of child decision making and working memory.

PubMed

Flouri, E; Ruddy, A; Midouhas, E

2017-04-01

Maternal depression may affect the emotional/behavioural outcomes of children with normal neurocognitive functioning less severely than it does those without. To guide prevention and intervention efforts, research must specify which aspects of a child's cognitive functioning both moderate the effect of maternal depression and are amenable to change. Working memory and decision making may be amenable to change and are so far unexplored as moderators of this effect. Our sample was 17 160 Millennium Cohort Study children. We analysed trajectories of externalizing (conduct and hyperactivity) and internalizing (emotional and peer) problems, measured with the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire at the ages 3, 5, 7 and 11 years, using growth curve models. We characterized maternal depression, also time-varying at these ages, by a high score on the K6. Working memory was measured with the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery Spatial Working Memory Task, and decision making (risk taking and quality of decision making) with the Cambridge Gambling Task, both at age 11 years. Maternal depression predicted both the level and the growth of problems. Risk taking and poor-quality decision making were related positively to externalizing and non-significantly to internalizing problems. Poor working memory was related to both problem types. Neither decision making nor working memory explained the effect of maternal depression on child internalizing/externalizing problems. Importantly, risk taking amplified the effect of maternal depression on internalizing problems, and poor working memory that on internalizing and conduct problems. Impaired decision making and working memory in children amplify the adverse effect of maternal depression on, particularly, internalizing problems.

Application of remote sensing to state and regional problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, W. F. (Principal Investigator); Quattrochi, D. A.; Carter, B. D.; Higgs, G. K.; Solomon, J. L.; Wax, C. L.

1979-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The Lowndes County data base is essentially complete with 18 primary variables and 16 proximity variables encoded into the geo-information system. The single purpose, decision tree classifier is now operational. Signatures for the thematic extraction of strip mines from LANDSAT Digital data were obtained by employing both supervised and nonsupervised procedures. Dry, blowing sand areas of beach were also identified from the LANDSAT data. The primary procedure was the analysis of analog data on the I2S signal slicer.

International Conference on Problems Related to the Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huntress, W., Jr.

1977-01-01

The conference focused on four main areas of investigation: laboratory studies and stratospheric chemistry and constituents, sources for and chemical budget of stratospheric halogen compounds, sources for and chemical budget of stratospheric nitrous oxide, and the dynamics of decision making on regulation of potential pollutants of the stratosphere. Abstracts of the scientific sessions of the conference as well as complete transcriptions of the panel discussions on sources for an atmospheric budget of holocarbons and nitrous oxide are included. The political, social and economic issues involving regulation of potential stratospheric pollutants were examined extensively.

Tools for Understanding Space Weather Impacts to Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, J. C.; Shprits, Y.; Likar, J. J.; Kellerman, A. C.; Quinn, R. A.; Whelan, P.; Reker, N.; Huston, S. L.

2017-12-01

Space weather causes dramatic changes in the near-Earth radiation environment. Intense particle fluxes can damage electronic components on satellites, causing temporary malfunctions, degraded performance, or a complete system/mission loss. Understanding whether space weather is the cause of such problems expedites investigations and guides successful design improvements resulting in a more robust satellite architecture. Here we discuss our progress in developing tools for satellite designers, manufacturers, and decision makers - tools that summarize space weather impacts to specific satellite assets and enable confident identification of the cause and right solution.

CDC Grand Rounds: Modeling and Public Health Decision-Making.

PubMed

Fischer, Leah S; Santibanez, Scott; Hatchett, Richard J; Jernigan, Daniel B; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Thorpe, Phoebe G; Meltzer, Martin I

2016-12-09

Mathematical models incorporate various data sources and advanced computational techniques to portray real-world disease transmission and translate the basic science of infectious diseases into decision-support tools for public health. Unlike standard epidemiologic methods that rely on complete data, modeling is needed when there are gaps in data. By combining diverse data sources, models can fill gaps when critical decisions must be made using incomplete or limited information. They can be used to assess the effect and feasibility of different scenarios and provide insight into the emergence, spread, and control of disease. During the past decade, models have been used to predict the likelihood and magnitude of infectious disease outbreaks, inform emergency response activities in real time (1), and develop plans and preparedness strategies for future events, the latter of which proved invaluable during outbreaks such as severe acute respiratory syndrome and pandemic influenza (2-6). Ideally, modeling is a multistep process that involves communication between modelers and decision-makers, allowing them to gain a mutual understanding of the problem to be addressed, the type of estimates that can be reliably generated, and the limitations of the data. As models become more detailed and relevant to real-time threats, the importance of modeling in public health decision-making continues to grow.

Priority setting: what constitutes success? A conceptual framework for successful priority setting.

PubMed

Sibbald, Shannon L; Singer, Peter A; Upshur, Ross; Martin, Douglas K

2009-03-05

The sustainability of healthcare systems worldwide is threatened by a growing demand for services and expensive innovative technologies. Decision makers struggle in this environment to set priorities appropriately, particularly because they lack consensus about which values should guide their decisions. One way to approach this problem is to determine what all relevant stakeholders understand successful priority setting to mean. The goal of this research was to develop a conceptual framework for successful priority setting. Three separate empirical studies were completed using qualitative data collection methods (one-on-one interviews with healthcare decision makers from across Canada; focus groups with representation of patients, caregivers and policy makers; and Delphi study including scholars and decision makers from five countries). This paper synthesizes the findings from three studies into a framework of ten separate but interconnected elements germane to successful priority setting: stakeholder understanding, shifted priorities/reallocation of resources, decision making quality, stakeholder acceptance and satisfaction, positive externalities, stakeholder engagement, use of explicit process, information management, consideration of values and context, and revision or appeals mechanism. The ten elements specify both quantitative and qualitative dimensions of priority setting and relate to both process and outcome components. To our knowledge, this is the first framework that describes successful priority setting. The ten elements identified in this research provide guidance for decision makers and a common language to discuss priority setting success and work toward improving priority setting efforts.

Formation of Conceptual Provisions for the Development of the Energy Efficient Housing Construction in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasilyeva, Elena

2017-10-01

Current problems and the prospects of energy saving in Russia as well as the importance of creation of complete legislative and legal base and the mechanisms of economic incentives of energy saving is are considered in article. The analysis of the existing criteria of the energy efficiency of buildings is carried out. The introduction of so-called “road map” of the development of energy saving in housing-and-communal services is expedient. According to the author, that will allow to provide owners of buildings and the servicing companies with the information for acceptance of organizational and technical project, construction and operational decisions, reasonable decisions on maintenance, reconstruction or dismantling of the buildings, directed to lowering of energetic expenses and also to the proper organization of life cycle of buildings in general.

Combining statistical inference and decisions in ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Perry J.; Hooten, Mevin B.

2016-01-01

Statistical decision theory (SDT) is a sub-field of decision theory that formally incorporates statistical investigation into a decision-theoretic framework to account for uncertainties in a decision problem. SDT provides a unifying analysis of three types of information: statistical results from a data set, knowledge of the consequences of potential choices (i.e., loss), and prior beliefs about a system. SDT links the theoretical development of a large body of statistical methods including point estimation, hypothesis testing, and confidence interval estimation. The theory and application of SDT have mainly been developed and published in the fields of mathematics, statistics, operations research, and other decision sciences, but have had limited exposure in ecology. Thus, we provide an introduction to SDT for ecologists and describe its utility for linking the conventionally separate tasks of statistical investigation and decision making in a single framework. We describe the basic framework of both Bayesian and frequentist SDT, its traditional use in statistics, and discuss its application to decision problems that occur in ecology. We demonstrate SDT with two types of decisions: Bayesian point estimation, and an applied management problem of selecting a prescribed fire rotation for managing a grassland bird species. Central to SDT, and decision theory in general, are loss functions. Thus, we also provide basic guidance and references for constructing loss functions for an SDT problem.

Criteria for assessing problem solving and decision making in complex environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith

1993-01-01

Training crews to cope with unanticipated problems in high-risk, high-stress environments requires models of effective problem solving and decision making. Existing decision theories use the criteria of logical consistency and mathematical optimality to evaluate decision quality. While these approaches are useful under some circumstances, the assumptions underlying these models frequently are not met in dynamic time-pressured operational environments. Also, applying formal decision models is both labor and time intensive, a luxury often lacking in operational environments. Alternate approaches and criteria are needed. Given that operational problem solving and decision making are embedded in ongoing tasks, evaluation criteria must address the relation between those activities and satisfaction of broader task goals. Effectiveness and efficiency become relevant for judging reasoning performance in operational environments. New questions must be addressed: What is the relation between the quality of decisions and overall performance by crews engaged in critical high risk tasks? Are different strategies most effective for different types of decisions? How can various decision types be characterized? A preliminary model of decision types found in air transport environments will be described along with a preliminary performance model based on an analysis of 30 flight crews. The performance analysis examined behaviors that distinguish more and less effective crews (based on performance errors). Implications for training and system design will be discussed.

Dynamic Decision Making under Uncertainty and Partial Information

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-01-30

order to address these problems, we investigated efficient computational methodologies for dynamic decision making under uncertainty and partial...information. In the course of this research, we developed and studied efficient simulation-based methodologies for dynamic decision making under...uncertainty and partial information; (ii) studied the application of these decision making models and methodologies to practical problems, such as those

Aid-Assisted Decision-Making and Colorectal Cancer Screening

PubMed Central

Schroy, Paul C.; Emmons, Karen M.; Peters, Ellen; Glick, Julie T.; Robinson, Patricia A.; Lydotes, Maria A.; Mylvaganam, Shamini R.; Coe, Alison M.; Chen, Clara A.; Chaisson, Christine E.; Pignone, Michael P.; Prout, Marianne N.; Davidson, Peter K.; Heeren, Timothy C.

2014-01-01

Background Shared decision-making (SDM) is a widely recommended yet unproven strategy for increasing colorectal cancer (CRC) screening uptake. Previous trials of decision aids to increase SDM and CRC screening uptake have yielded mixed results. Purpose To assess the impact of decision aid–assisted SDM on CRC screening uptake. Design RCT. Setting/participants The study was conducted at an urban, academic safety-net hospital and community health center between 2005 and 2010. Participants were asymptomatic, average-risk patients aged 50–75 years due for CRC screening. Intervention Study participants (n=825) were randomized to one of two intervention arms (decision aid plus personalized risk assessment or decision aid alone) or control arm. The interventions took place just prior to a routine office visit with their primary care providers. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was completion of a CRC screening test within 12 months of the study visit. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of test completion and mediators of the intervention effect. Analysis was completed in 2011. Results Patients in the decision-aid group were more likely to complete a screening test than control patients (43.1% vs 34.8%; p=0.046) within 12 months of the study visit; conversely, test uptake for the decision aid and decision aid plus personalized risk assessment arms was similar (43.1% vs 37.1%; p=0.15). Assignment to the decision-aid arm (AOR 1.48; 95% CI=1.04, 2.10), black race (AOR 1.52, 95% CI=1.12, 2.06) and a preference for a patient-dominant decisionmaking approach (AOR, 1.55; 95% CI=1.02, 2.35) were independent determinants of test completion. Activation of the screening discussion and enhanced screening intentions mediated the intervention effect. Conclusions Decision aid–assisted SDM has a modest impact on CRC screening uptake. A decision aid plus personalized risk assessment tool is no more effective than a decision aid alone. PMID:23159252

Working dogs cooperate among one another by generalised reciprocity.

PubMed

Gfrerer, Nastassja; Taborsky, Michael

2017-03-06

Cooperation by generalised reciprocity implies that individuals apply the decision rule "help anyone if helped by someone". This mechanism has been shown to generate evolutionarily stable levels of cooperation, but as yet it is unclear how widely this cooperation mechanism is applied among animals. Dogs (Canis familiaris) are highly social animals with considerable cognitive potential and the ability to differentiate between individual social partners. But although dogs can solve complex problems, they may use simple rules for behavioural decisions. Here we show that dogs trained in an instrumental cooperative task to provide food to a social partner help conspecifics more often after receiving help from a dog before. Remarkably, in so doing they show no distinction between partners that had helped them before and completely unfamiliar conspecifics. Apparently, dogs use the simple decision rule characterizing generalised reciprocity, although they are probably capable of using the more complex decision rule of direct reciprocity: "help someone who has helped you". However, generalized reciprocity involves lower information processing costs and is therefore a cheaper cooperation strategy. Our results imply that generalised reciprocity might be applied more commonly than direct reciprocity also in other mutually cooperating animals.

Working dogs cooperate among one another by generalised reciprocity

PubMed Central

Gfrerer, Nastassja; Taborsky, Michael

2017-01-01

Cooperation by generalised reciprocity implies that individuals apply the decision rule “help anyone if helped by someone”. This mechanism has been shown to generate evolutionarily stable levels of cooperation, but as yet it is unclear how widely this cooperation mechanism is applied among animals. Dogs (Canis familiaris) are highly social animals with considerable cognitive potential and the ability to differentiate between individual social partners. But although dogs can solve complex problems, they may use simple rules for behavioural decisions. Here we show that dogs trained in an instrumental cooperative task to provide food to a social partner help conspecifics more often after receiving help from a dog before. Remarkably, in so doing they show no distinction between partners that had helped them before and completely unfamiliar conspecifics. Apparently, dogs use the simple decision rule characterizing generalised reciprocity, although they are probably capable of using the more complex decision rule of direct reciprocity: “help someone who has helped you”. However, generalized reciprocity involves lower information processing costs and is therefore a cheaper cooperation strategy. Our results imply that generalised reciprocity might be applied more commonly than direct reciprocity also in other mutually cooperating animals. PMID:28262722

Outbreak column 17: Situational Awareness for healthcare outbreaks

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Outbreak column 17 introduces the utility of Situation Awareness (SA) for outbreak management. For any given time period, an individual or team’s SA involves a perception of what is going on, meaning derived from the perception and a prediction of what is likely to happen next. The individual or team’s SA informs, but is separate to, both the decisions and actions that follow. The accuracy and completeness of an individual or team’s SA will therefore impact on the effectiveness of decisions and actions taken. SA was developed by the aviation industry and is utilised in situations which, like outbreaks, have dynamic, i.e. continuously changing problem spaces, and wherein a loss of SA is likely to lead to both poor decision-making and actions with potentially fatal consequences. The potential benefits of using SA for outbreaks are discussed and include: (1) retrospectively to identify if poor decision-making was a result of a poor SA; (2) prospectively to identify where the system is weakest; and (3) as a teaching tool to improve the skills of individuals and teams in developing a shared understanding of the here and now. PMID:28989433

Research of Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique for Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siregar, Dodi; Arisandi, Diki; Usman, Ari; Irwan, Dedy; Rahim, Robbi

2017-12-01

One of the roles of decision support system is that it can assist the decision maker in obtaining the appropriate alternative with the desired criteria, one of the methods that could apply for the decision maker is SMART method with multicriteria decision making. This multi-criteria decision-making theory has meaning where every alternative has criteria and has value and weight, and the author uses this approach to facilitate decision making with a compelling case. The problems discussed in this paper are classified into problems of a variety Multiobjective (multiple goals to be accomplished) and multicriteria (many of the decisive criteria in reaching such decisions).

Marine Steam Condenser Design Optimization.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-12-01

to make design decisions to obtain a feasible design. CONNIN, as do most optimizers, requires complete control in determining all iterative design...neutralize all the places where such design decisions are made. By removing the ability for CONDIP to make any design decisions it became totally passive...dependent on CONNIN for design decisions , does not have that capability. Pemeabering that CONHIN requires a complete once-through analysis in order to

Automated Finishing with Autofinish

PubMed Central

Gordon, David; Desmarais, Cindy; Green, Phil

2001-01-01

Currently, the genome sequencing community is producing shotgun sequence data at a very high rate, but finishing (collecting additional directed sequence data to close gaps and improve the quality of the data) is not matching that rate. One reason for the difference is that shotgun sequencing is highly automated but finishing is not: Most finishing decisions, such as which directed reads to obtain and which specialized sequencing techniques to use, are made by people. If finishing rates are to increase to match shotgun sequencing rates, most finishing decisions also must be automated. The Autofinish computer program (which is part of the Consed computer software package) does this by automatically choosing finishing reads. Autofinish is able to suggest most finishing reads required for completion of each sequencing project, greatly reducing the amount of human attention needed. Autofinish sometimes completely finishes the project, with no human decisions required. It cannot solve the most complex problems, so we recommend that Autofinish be allowed to suggest reads for the first three rounds of finishing, and if the project still is not finished completely, a human finisher complete the work. We compared this Autofinish-Hybrid method of finishing against a human finisher in five different projects with a variety of shotgun depths by finishing each project twice—once with each method. This comparison shows that the Autofinish-Hybrid method saves many hours over a human finisher alone, while using roughly the same number and type of reads and closing gaps at roughly the same rate. Autofinish currently is in production use at several large sequencing centers. It is designed to be adaptable to the finishing strategy of the lab—it can finish using some or all of the following: resequencing reads, reverses, custom primer walks on either subclone templates or whole clone templates, PCR, or minilibraries. Autofinish has been used for finishing cDNA, genomic clones, and whole bacterial genomes (see http://www.phrap.org). PMID:11282977

Applying Cases to Solve Ethical Problems: The Significance of Positive and Process-Oriented Reflection

PubMed Central

Antes, Alison L.; Thiel, Chase E.; Martin, Laura E.; Stenmark, Cheryl K.; Connelly, Shane; Devenport, Lynn D.; Mumford, Michael D.

2015-01-01

This study examined the role of reflection on personal cases for making ethical decisions with regard to new ethical problems. Participants assumed the position of a business manager in a hypothetical organization and solved ethical problems that might be encountered. Prior to making a decision for the business problems, participants reflected on a relevant ethical experience. The findings revealed that application of material garnered from reflection on a personal experience was associated with decisions of higher ethicality. However, whether the case was viewed as positive or negative, and whether the outcomes, process, or outcomes and processes embedded in the experience were examined, influenced the application of case material to the new problem. As expected, examining positive experiences and the processes involved in those positive experiences resulted in greater application of case material to new problems. Future directions and implications for understanding ethical decision-making are discussed. PMID:26257506

The use of multi-criteria decision analysis to tackle waste management problems: a literature review.

PubMed

Achillas, Charisios; Moussiopoulos, Nicolas; Karagiannidis, Avraam; Banias, Georgias; Perkoulidis, George

2013-02-01

Problems in waste management have become more and more complex during recent decades. The increasing volumes of waste produced and social environmental consciousness present prominent drivers for environmental managers towards the achievement of a sustainable waste management scheme. However, in practice, there are many factors and influences - often mutually conflicting - criteria for finding solutions in real-life applications. This paper presents a review of the literature on multi-criteria decision aiding in waste management problems for all reported waste streams. Despite limitations, which are clearly stated, most of the work published in this field is reviewed. The present review aims to provide environmental managers and decision-makers with a thorough list of practical applications of the multi-criteria decision analysis techniques that are used to solve real-life waste management problems, as well as the criteria that are mostly employed in such applications according to the nature of the problem under study. Moreover, the paper explores the advantages and disadvantages of using multi-criteria decision analysis techniques in waste management problems in comparison to other available alternatives.

Fuzzy approaches to supplier selection problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozkok, Beyza Ahlatcioglu; Kocken, Hale Gonce

2013-09-01

Supplier selection problem is a multi-criteria decision making problem which includes both qualitative and quantitative factors. In the selection process many criteria may conflict with each other, therefore decision-making process becomes complicated. In this study, we handled the supplier selection problem under uncertainty. In this context; we used minimum criterion, arithmetic mean criterion, regret criterion, optimistic criterion, geometric mean and harmonic mean. The membership functions created with the help of the characteristics of used criteria, and we tried to provide consistent supplier selection decisions by using these memberships for evaluating alternative suppliers. During the analysis, no need to use expert opinion is a strong aspect of the methodology used in the decision-making.

Fuzzy bilevel programming with multiple non-cooperative followers: model, algorithm and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ke, Hua; Huang, Hu; Ralescu, Dan A.; Wang, Lei

2016-04-01

In centralized decision problems, it is not complicated for decision-makers to make modelling technique selections under uncertainty. When a decentralized decision problem is considered, however, choosing appropriate models is no longer easy due to the difficulty in estimating the other decision-makers' inconclusive decision criteria. These decision criteria may vary with different decision-makers because of their special risk tolerances and management requirements. Considering the general differences among the decision-makers in decentralized systems, we propose a general framework of fuzzy bilevel programming including hybrid models (integrated with different modelling methods in different levels). Specially, we discuss two of these models which may have wide applications in many fields. Furthermore, we apply the proposed two models to formulate a pricing decision problem in a decentralized supply chain with fuzzy coefficients. In order to solve these models, a hybrid intelligent algorithm integrating fuzzy simulation, neural network and particle swarm optimization based on penalty function approach is designed. Some suggestions on the applications of these models are also presented.

Hazelwood Decision: The Complete Text of the Jan. 13 U.S. Supreme Court 5-3 Decision.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quill and Scroll, 1988

1988-01-01

Reprints the complete text of the January 13, 1988 United States Supreme Court decision on Hazelwood School District versus Kuhlmeier, which concerns educators' editorial control over the content of a high school newspaper produced as part of a school's journalism curriculum. (MS)

Integrating conflict analysis and consensus reaching in a decision support system for water resource management.

PubMed

Giordano, R; Passarella, G; Uricchio, V F; Vurro, M

2007-07-01

The importance of shared decision processes in water management derives from the awareness of the inadequacy of traditional--i.e. engineering--approaches in dealing with complex and ill-structured problems. It is becoming increasingly obvious that traditional problem solving and decision support techniques, based on optimisation and factual knowledge, have to be combined with stakeholder based policy design and implementation. The aim of our research is the definition of an integrated decision support system for consensus achievement (IDSS-C) able to support a participative decision-making process in all its phases: problem definition and structuring, identification of the possible alternatives, formulation of participants' judgments, and consensus achievement. Furthermore, the IDSS-C aims at structuring, i.e. systematising the knowledge which has emerged during the participative process in order to make it comprehensible for the decision-makers and functional for the decision process. Problem structuring methods (PSM) and multi-group evaluation methods (MEM) have been integrated in the IDSS-C. PSM are used to support the stakeholders in providing their perspective of the problem and to elicit their interests and preferences, while MEM are used to define not only the degree of consensus for each alternative, highlighting those where the agreement is high, but also the consensus label for each alternative and the behaviour of individuals during the participative decision-making. The IDSS-C is applied experimentally to a decision process regarding the use of treated wastewater for agricultural irrigation in the Apulia Region (southern Italy).

Foster care assessment: A study of the placement decision process in Flanders.

PubMed

Vanderfaeillie, Johan; Pijnenburg, Huub; Damen, Harm; Van Holen, Frank

2015-11-01

Family foster care placement decision-making has a weak scientific underpinning. Mostly a 'variable-oriented approach' is taken, which requires a lot of information that is not always available. The identification of clusters of foster children with similar characteristics may be a more viable decision strategy. In this study we investigated if foster children could indeed be clustered, which problems were identified at the time of placement, and the influence of placement history. It proved possible to group foster children into two clusters: (1) young children with familial problems and few behavioral problems, and (2) older children with prominent child problems and behavioral problems. For foster children with and without placement history, problems associated with placement proved identical. Considering that a foster care placement did not result in fundamental change in the problems present at time of placement, the importance is stressed of approaching foster care assessment as part of a decision making process which looks back as well as forward. Placement decisions should be based on an appraisal of the appropriateness of foster placement as a solution for the child. In conjunction with this appraisal a decision is required on how parents can be supported toward reunification. Or--if this is not an option--whether long term foster care is the best option for the child and if so, what conditions need to be met. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reproductive autonomy, the non-identity problem, and the non-person problem.

PubMed

DiSilvestro, Russell

2009-01-01

The Non-Identity Problem is the problem of explaining the apparent wrongness of a decision that does not harm people, especially since some of the people affected by the decision would not exist at all were it not for the decision. One approach to this problem, in the context of reproductive decisions, is to focus on wronging, rather than harming, one's offspring. But a Non-Person Problem emerges for any view that claims (1) that only persons can be wronged and (2) that the person-making properties allow for there to be human non-persons. Consider an individual human organism that is prevented from ever possessing the person-making properties. On person-only accounts of the victims of wronging, this organism cannot be wronged by anyone. Hence even individuals whose decisions prevent it from ever possessing the person-making properties cannot wrong it. But this is counter-intuitive. We can think of examples where a human organism is wronged by precisely those decisions that prevent it from possessing the person-making properties. The best solution to this problem, in the case where the person-making property is rational self-governance in pursuit of a meaningful life, is to adjust the concept of a person so that it refers, not merely to those with the immediate capacity for rational self-governance in pursuit of a meaningful life, but also to those with a higher-order capacity for such self-governance. Any solution to the Non-Identity Problem that focuses on wronging rather than harming should incorporate this sort of solution to the Non-Person Problem.

Effect of training problem-solving skill on decision-making and critical thinking of personnel at medical emergencies

PubMed Central

Heidari, Mohammad; Shahbazi, Sara

2016-01-01

Background: The aim of this study was to determine the effect of problem-solving training on decision-making skill and critical thinking in emergency medical personnel. Materials and Methods: This study is an experimental study that performed in 95 emergency medical personnel in two groups of control (48) and experimental (47). Then, a short problem-solving course based on 8 sessions of 2 h during the term, was performed for the experimental group. Of data gathering was used demographic and researcher made decision-making and California critical thinking skills questionnaires. Data were analyzed using SPSS software. Results: The finding revealed that decision-making and critical thinking score in emergency medical personnel are low and problem-solving course, positively affected the personnel’ decision-making skill and critical thinking after the educational program (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Therefore, this kind of education on problem-solving in various emergency medicine domains such as education, research, and management, is recommended. PMID:28149823

A trial of a self-assessment tool of problems following treatment of colorectal cancer: a prospective study in Australia primary care.

PubMed

Ngune, I; Jiwa, M; McManus, A; Parsons, R; Hodder, R

2016-01-01

Patients treated for colorectal cancer (CRC) experience considerable physical, social and psychological morbidity. In this study, 66 participants with stages I-III CRC were enrolled in this study. Participants completed the self-assessment tool for patients (SATp) over a 5-month period and visited a general practitioner with a copy of their SATp to assist in the management of any problems associated with CRC treatment. General practitioners' notes were reviewed for management actions. Of the 66 participants, 57 visited a general practitioner over the 5-month study period. A total of 547 problems were identified (median 7; IQR: 3-12.25). Participants with physical problems were more likely to consult their general practitioner (OR: 1.84, CI: 1.05-3.21, P = 0.03) compared to those with psychological problems. The number of problems experienced by participants did not have any influence on the decision to visit a general practitioner. Psychological problems (P < 0.01) significantly reduced over the 5-month study period. Regular use of the SATp facilitates the identification of long-term CRC treatment-related problems. Some of these problems could then be addressed in primary care. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Medical Problem-Solving: A Critique of the Literature.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGuire, Christine H.

1985-01-01

Prescriptive, decision-analysis of medical problem-solving has been based on decision theory that involves calculation and manipulation of complex probability and utility values to arrive at optimal decisions that will maximize patient benefits. The studies offer a methodology for improving clinical judgment. (Author/MLW)

Dying cancer patients' own opinions on euthanasia: an expression of autonomy? A qualitative study.

PubMed

Karlsson, Marit; Milberg, Anna; Strang, Peter

2012-01-01

Deliberations on euthanasia are mostly theoretical, and often lack first-hand perspectives of the affected persons. Sixty-six patients suffering from cancer in a palliative phase were interviewed about their perspectives of euthanasia in relation to autonomy. The interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using qualitative content analysis with no predetermined categories. The informants expressed different positions on euthanasia, ranging from support to opposition, but the majority were undecided due to the complexity of the problem. The informants' perspectives on euthanasia in relation to autonomy focused on decision making, being affected by (1) power and (2) trust. Legalization of euthanasia was perceived as either (a) increasing patient autonomy by patient empowerment, or (b) decreasing patient autonomy by increasing the medical power of the health care staff, which could be frightening. The informants experienced dependence on others, and expressed various levels of trust in others' intentions, ranging from full trust to complete mistrust. Dying cancer patients perceive that they cannot feel completely independent, which affects true autonomous decision making. Further, when considering legalization of euthanasia, the perspectives of patients fearing the effects of legalization should also be taken into account, not only those of patients opting for it.

Bayesian-information-gap decision theory with an application to CO 2 sequestration

DOE PAGES

O'Malley, D.; Vesselinov, V. V.

2015-09-04

Decisions related to subsurface engineering problems such as groundwater management, fossil fuel production, and geologic carbon sequestration are frequently challenging because of an overabundance of uncertainties (related to conceptualizations, parameters, observations, etc.). Because of the importance of these problems to agriculture, energy, and the climate (respectively), good decisions that are scientifically defensible must be made despite the uncertainties. We describe a general approach to making decisions for challenging problems such as these in the presence of severe uncertainties that combines probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods. The approach uses Bayesian sampling to assess parametric uncertainty and Information-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) to addressmore » model inadequacy. The combined approach also resolves an issue that frequently arises when applying Bayesian methods to real-world engineering problems related to the enumeration of possible outcomes. In the case of zero non-probabilistic uncertainty, the method reduces to a Bayesian method. Lastly, to illustrate the approach, we apply it to a site-selection decision for geologic CO 2 sequestration.« less

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MEASURES OF IMPULSIVITY AND ALCOHOL MISUSE: AN INTEGRATIVE STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING APPROACH

PubMed Central

Courtney, Kelly E.; Arellano, Ryan; Barkley-Levenson, Emily; Gálvan, Adriana; Poldrack, Russell A.; MacKillop, James; Jentsch, J. David; Ray, Lara A.

2011-01-01

Background Higher levels of impulsivity have been implicated in the development of alcohol use disorders. Recent findings suggest that impulsivity is not a unitary construct, highlighted by the diverse ways in which the various measures of impulsivity relate to alcohol use outcomes. This study simultaneously tested the following dimensions of impulsivity as determinants of alcohol use and alcohol problems: risky decision-making, self-reported risk attitudes, response inhibition, and impulsive decision-making. Method Participants were a community sample of non-treatment seeking problem drinkers (N = 158). Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analyses employed behavioral measures of impulsive decision-making (Delay Discounting Task, DDT), response inhibition (Stop Signal Task, SST), and risky decision-making (Balloon Analogue Risk Task, BART), and a self-report measure of risk attitudes (Domain-specific Risk-attitude Scale, DOSPERT), as predictors of alcohol use and of alcohol-related problems in this sample. Results The model fit well, accounting for 38% of the variance in alcohol problems, and identified two impulsivity dimensions that significantly loaded onto alcohol outcomes: (1) impulsive decision-making, indexed by the DDT; and (2) risky decision-making, measured by the BART. Conclusions The impulsive decision-making dimension of impulsivity, indexed by the DDT, was the strongest predictor of alcohol use and alcohol pathology in this sample of problem drinkers. Unexpectedly, a negative relationship was found between risky decision-making and alcohol problems. The results highlight the importance of considering the distinct facets of impulsivity in order to elucidate their individual and combined effects on alcohol use initiation, escalation, and dependence. PMID:22091877

Can Classification Tree Analyses Help Improve Decision Making About Treatments for Depression and Anxiety Disorders? A Preliminary Investigation

PubMed Central

Rhodes, Louisa; Naumann, Ulrike M.

2011-01-01

Objective: To identify how decisions about treatment are being made in secondary services for anxiety disorders and depression and, specifically, whether it was possible to predict the decisions to refer for evidence-based treatments. Method: Post hoc classification tree analysis was performed using a sample from an audit on implementation of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence Guidelines for Depression and Anxiety Disorders. The audit was of 5 teams offering secondary care services; they included psychiatrists, psychologists, community psychiatric nurses, social workers, dual-diagnosis workers, and vocational workers. The patient sample included all of those with a primary problem of depression (n = 56) or an anxiety disorder (n = 16) who were offered treatment from February 16 to April 3, 2009. The outcome variable was whether or not evidence-based treatments were offered, and the predictor variables were presenting problem, risk, comorbid problem, social problems, and previous psychiatric history. Results: Treatment decisions could be more accurately predicted for anxiety disorders (93% correct) than for depression (55%). For anxiety disorders, the presence or absence of social problems was a good predictor for whether evidence-based or non–evidence-based treatments were offered; 44% (4/9) of those with social problems vs 100% (6/6) of those without social problems were offered evidence-based treatments. For depression, patients’ risk rating had the largest impact on treatment decisions, although no one variable could be identified as individually predictive of all treatment decisions. Conclusions: Treatment decisions were generally consistent for anxiety disorders but more idiosyncratic for depression, making the development of a decision-making model very difficult for depression. The lack of clarity of some terms in the clinical guidelines and the more complex nature of depression could be factors contributing to this difficulty. Further research is needed to understand the complex nature of decision making with depressed patients. PMID:22295255

Human Cognitive Limitations. Broad, Consistent, Clinical Application of Physiological Principles Will Require Decision Support.

PubMed

Morris, Alan H

2018-02-01

Our education system seems to fail to enable clinicians to broadly understand core physiological principles. The emphasis on reductionist science, including "omics" branches of research, has likely contributed to this decrease in understanding. Consequently, clinicians cannot be expected to consistently make clinical decisions linked to best physiological evidence. This is a large-scale problem with multiple determinants, within an even larger clinical decision problem: the failure of clinicians to consistently link their decisions to best evidence. Clinicians, like all human decision-makers, suffer from significant cognitive limitations. Detailed context-sensitive computer protocols can generate personalized medicine instructions that are well matched to individual patient needs over time and can partially resolve this problem.

Two Quantum Protocols for Oblivious Set-member Decision Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Run-Hua; Mu, Yi; Zhong, Hong; Cui, Jie; Zhang, Shun

2015-10-01

In this paper, we defined a new secure multi-party computation problem, called Oblivious Set-member Decision problem, which allows one party to decide whether a secret of another party belongs to his private set in an oblivious manner. There are lots of important applications of Oblivious Set-member Decision problem in fields of the multi-party collaborative computation of protecting the privacy of the users, such as private set intersection and union, anonymous authentication, electronic voting and electronic auction. Furthermore, we presented two quantum protocols to solve the Oblivious Set-member Decision problem. Protocol I takes advantage of powerful quantum oracle operations so that it needs lower costs in both communication and computation complexity; while Protocol II takes photons as quantum resources and only performs simple single-particle projective measurements, thus it is more feasible with the present technology.

Two Quantum Protocols for Oblivious Set-member Decision Problem

PubMed Central

Shi, Run-hua; Mu, Yi; Zhong, Hong; Cui, Jie; Zhang, Shun

2015-01-01

In this paper, we defined a new secure multi-party computation problem, called Oblivious Set-member Decision problem, which allows one party to decide whether a secret of another party belongs to his private set in an oblivious manner. There are lots of important applications of Oblivious Set-member Decision problem in fields of the multi-party collaborative computation of protecting the privacy of the users, such as private set intersection and union, anonymous authentication, electronic voting and electronic auction. Furthermore, we presented two quantum protocols to solve the Oblivious Set-member Decision problem. Protocol I takes advantage of powerful quantum oracle operations so that it needs lower costs in both communication and computation complexity; while Protocol II takes photons as quantum resources and only performs simple single-particle projective measurements, thus it is more feasible with the present technology. PMID:26514668

Two Quantum Protocols for Oblivious Set-member Decision Problem.

PubMed

Shi, Run-Hua; Mu, Yi; Zhong, Hong; Cui, Jie; Zhang, Shun

2015-10-30

In this paper, we defined a new secure multi-party computation problem, called Oblivious Set-member Decision problem, which allows one party to decide whether a secret of another party belongs to his private set in an oblivious manner. There are lots of important applications of Oblivious Set-member Decision problem in fields of the multi-party collaborative computation of protecting the privacy of the users, such as private set intersection and union, anonymous authentication, electronic voting and electronic auction. Furthermore, we presented two quantum protocols to solve the Oblivious Set-member Decision problem. Protocol I takes advantage of powerful quantum oracle operations so that it needs lower costs in both communication and computation complexity; while Protocol II takes photons as quantum resources and only performs simple single-particle projective measurements, thus it is more feasible with the present technology.

'Without a plan' but 'keeping on track': views on contraception, pregnancy and abortion in Mexico City.

PubMed

Juarez, Fatima; Bayer, Angela M

2011-01-01

Despite increased use of modern contraception among Mexican women, there has been a significant increase in abortions. Little is known about the experiences behind these trends. This study examines decision-making around contraception, pregnancy, childbearing and abortion. We carried out 26 in-depth interviews with 23- to 35-year-old females and males in Mexico City. Interviewees described reproductive planning 'without a plan' and sporadic contraceptive use. Linking of reproductive preferences and contraceptive use occurred only after raising a child for a few years or after experiencing an abortion. Interviewees described side effects of hormonal contraceptives and the intrauterine device (IUD) and problems with condoms. Only 8% of participants disagreed with abortion completely. Those with mixed views opposed abortion for pregnancies resulting from lack of responsibility or due to personal problems or concerns about one's future. However, these more controversial reasons were the primary motivations for terminating pregnancies. Females and males expressed that females made most decisions related to contraception, pregnancy and abortion. Further research could explore the reasons behind reproductive planning 'without a plan', 'on and off' contraceptive use and abortion beliefs and experiences that are somewhat contradictory.

Combining statistical inference and decisions in ecology.

PubMed

Williams, Perry J; Hooten, Mevin B

2016-09-01

Statistical decision theory (SDT) is a sub-field of decision theory that formally incorporates statistical investigation into a decision-theoretic framework to account for uncertainties in a decision problem. SDT provides a unifying analysis of three types of information: statistical results from a data set, knowledge of the consequences of potential choices (i.e., loss), and prior beliefs about a system. SDT links the theoretical development of a large body of statistical methods, including point estimation, hypothesis testing, and confidence interval estimation. The theory and application of SDT have mainly been developed and published in the fields of mathematics, statistics, operations research, and other decision sciences, but have had limited exposure in ecology. Thus, we provide an introduction to SDT for ecologists and describe its utility for linking the conventionally separate tasks of statistical investigation and decision making in a single framework. We describe the basic framework of both Bayesian and frequentist SDT, its traditional use in statistics, and discuss its application to decision problems that occur in ecology. We demonstrate SDT with two types of decisions: Bayesian point estimation and an applied management problem of selecting a prescribed fire rotation for managing a grassland bird species. Central to SDT, and decision theory in general, are loss functions. Thus, we also provide basic guidance and references for constructing loss functions for an SDT problem. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Problem and Dilemma Identification and Formulation As the Most Critical Element of the Decision-Making Process: Behavioral Biases and Characteristics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pashiardis, Petros

This paper presents an overview of research in the field of decision theory, with a focus on problem and identification. The goal is to make the decision-making process as rational as possible in order to maximize the rational administration of the organization. The decisions associated with educational administration can be categorized as…

The design of aircraft using the decision support problem technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mistree, Farrokh; Marinopoulos, Stergios; Jackson, David M.; Shupe, Jon A.

1988-01-01

The Decision Support Problem Technique for unified design, manufacturing and maintenance is being developed at the Systems Design Laboratory at the University of Houston. This involves the development of a domain-independent method (and the associated software) that can be used to process domain-dependent information and thereby provide support for human judgment. In a computer assisted environment, this support is provided in the form of optimal solutions to Decision Support Problems.

Eco-informatics for decision makers advancing a research agenda

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cushing, J.B.; Wilson, T.; Brandt, L.; Gregg, V.; Spengler, S.; Borning, A.; Delcambre, L.; Bowker, G.; Frame, M.; Fulop, J.; Hert, C.; Hovy, E.; Jones, J.; Landis, E.; Schnase, J.L.; Schweik, C.; Sonntag, W.; ,

2005-01-01

Resource managers often face significant information technology (IT) problems when integrating ecological or environmental information to make decisions. At a workshop sponsored by the NSF and USGS in December 2004, university researchers, natural resource managers, and information managers met to articulate IT problems facing ecology and environmental decision makers. Decision making IT problems were identified in five areas: 1) policy, 2) data presentation, 3) data gaps, 4) tools, and 5) indicators. To alleviate those problems, workshop participants recommended specific informatics research in modeling and simulation, data quality, information integration and ontologies, and social and human aspects. This paper reports the workshop findings, and briefly compares these with research that traditionally falls under the emerging eco-informatics rubric. ?? Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2005.

[Patient expectations about decision-making for various health problems].

PubMed

Delgado, Ana; López-Fernández, Luis Andrés; de Dios Luna, Juan; Saletti Cuesta, Lorena; Gil Garrido, Natalia; Puga González, Almudena

2010-01-01

To identify patient expectations of clinical decision-making at consultations with their general practitioners for distinct health problems and to determine the patient and general practitioner characteristics related to these expectations, with special focus on gender. We performed a multicenter cross-sectional study in 360 patients who were interviewed at home. Data on patients' sociodemographic, clinical characteristics and satisfaction were gathered. General practitioners supplied information on their gender and postgraduate training in family medicine. A questionnaire was used to collect data on patients' expectations that their general practitioner at consultations with their general practitioner for five problems or hypothetical clinical scenarios (strong chest pain/cold with fever/abnormal discharge/depression or sadness/severe family problem). Patients were asked to indicate their preference that decisions on diagnosis and treatment be taken by: a) the general practitioner alone; b) the general practitioner, taking account of the patient's opinion; c) the patient, taking account of the general practitioner's opinion and d) the patient alone. A logistic regression was performed for clinical decision-making. The response rate was 90%. The mean age was 47.3 + or - 16.5 years and 51% were female. Patients' expectations that their general practitioner listen, explain and take account of their opinions were higher than their expectations of participating in decision-making, depending on the problem in question: 32% wished to participate in chest pain and 49% in family problems. Women had lower expectations of participating in depression and family problems. Patients with female general practitioners had higher expectations of participating in family problems and colds. Most patients wished to be listened to, informed and taken into account by their general practitioners and, to a lesser extent, wished to take decisions autonomously, especially for biomedical problems. Copyright 2009 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Decision Support Framework Implementation Of The Web-Based Environmental Decision Analysis DASEES: Decision Analysis For A Sustainable Environment, Economy, And Society

EPA Science Inventory

Solutions to pervasive environmental problems often are not amenable to a straightforward application of science-based actions. These problems encompass large-scale environmental policy questions where environmental concerns, economic constraints, and societal values conflict ca...

Formative evaluation of a patient-specific clinical knowledge summarization tool

PubMed Central

Del Fiol, Guilherme; Mostafa, Javed; Pu, Dongqiuye; Medlin, Richard; Slager, Stacey; Jonnalagadda, Siddhartha R.; Weir, Charlene R.

2015-01-01

Objective To iteratively design a prototype of a computerized clinical knowledge summarization (CKS) tool aimed at helping clinicians finding answers to their clinical questions; and to conduct a formative assessment of the usability, usefulness, efficiency, and impact of the CKS prototype on physicians’ perceived decision quality compared with standard search of UpToDate and PubMed. Materials and methods Mixed-methods observations of the interactions of 10 physicians with the CKS prototype vs. standard search in an effort to solve clinical problems posed as case vignettes. Results The CKS tool automatically summarizes patient-specific and actionable clinical recommendations from PubMed (high quality randomized controlled trials and systematic reviews) and UpToDate. Two thirds of the study participants completed 15 out of 17 usability tasks. The median time to task completion was less than 10 s for 12 of the 17 tasks. The difference in search time between the CKS and standard search was not significant (median = 4.9 vs. 4.5 min). Physician’s perceived decision quality was significantly higher with the CKS than with manual search (mean = 16.6 vs. 14.4; p = 0.036). Conclusions The CKS prototype was well-accepted by physicians both in terms of usability and usefulness. Physicians perceived better decision quality with the CKS prototype compared to standard search of PubMed and UpToDate within a similar search time. Due to the formative nature of this study and a small sample size, conclusions regarding efficiency and efficacy are exploratory. PMID:26612774

Formative evaluation of a patient-specific clinical knowledge summarization tool.

PubMed

Del Fiol, Guilherme; Mostafa, Javed; Pu, Dongqiuye; Medlin, Richard; Slager, Stacey; Jonnalagadda, Siddhartha R; Weir, Charlene R

2016-02-01

To iteratively design a prototype of a computerized clinical knowledge summarization (CKS) tool aimed at helping clinicians finding answers to their clinical questions; and to conduct a formative assessment of the usability, usefulness, efficiency, and impact of the CKS prototype on physicians' perceived decision quality compared with standard search of UpToDate and PubMed. Mixed-methods observations of the interactions of 10 physicians with the CKS prototype vs. standard search in an effort to solve clinical problems posed as case vignettes. The CKS tool automatically summarizes patient-specific and actionable clinical recommendations from PubMed (high quality randomized controlled trials and systematic reviews) and UpToDate. Two thirds of the study participants completed 15 out of 17 usability tasks. The median time to task completion was less than 10s for 12 of the 17 tasks. The difference in search time between the CKS and standard search was not significant (median=4.9 vs. 4.5m in). Physician's perceived decision quality was significantly higher with the CKS than with manual search (mean=16.6 vs. 14.4; p=0.036). The CKS prototype was well-accepted by physicians both in terms of usability and usefulness. Physicians perceived better decision quality with the CKS prototype compared to standard search of PubMed and UpToDate within a similar search time. Due to the formative nature of this study and a small sample size, conclusions regarding efficiency and efficacy are exploratory. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Single-trial EEG-informed fMRI analysis of emotional decision problems in hot executive function.

PubMed

Guo, Qian; Zhou, Tiantong; Li, Wenjie; Dong, Li; Wang, Suhong; Zou, Ling

2017-07-01

Executive function refers to conscious control in psychological process which relates to thinking and action. Emotional decision is a part of hot executive function and contains emotion and logic elements. As a kind of important social adaptation ability, more and more attention has been paid in recent years. Gambling task can be well performed in the study of emotional decision. As fMRI researches focused on gambling task show not completely consistent brain activation regions, this study adopted EEG-fMRI fusion technology to reveal brain neural activity related with feedback stimuli. In this study, an EEG-informed fMRI analysis was applied to process simultaneous EEG-fMRI data. First, relative power-spectrum analysis and K-means clustering method were performed separately to extract EEG-fMRI features. Then, Generalized linear models were structured using fMRI data and using different EEG features as regressors. The results showed that in the win versus loss stimuli, the activated regions almost covered the caudate, the ventral striatum (VS), the orbital frontal cortex (OFC), and the cingulate. Wide activation areas associated with reward and punishment were revealed by the EEG-fMRI integration analysis than the conventional fMRI results, such as the posterior cingulate and the OFC. The VS and the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) were found when EEG power features were performed as regressors of GLM compared with results entering the amplitudes of feedback-related negativity (FRN) as regressors. Furthermore, the brain region activation intensity was the strongest when theta-band power was used as a regressor compared with the other two fusion results. The EEG-based fMRI analysis can more accurately depict the whole-brain activation map and analyze emotional decision problems.

"Piensa" twice: on the foreign language effect in decision making.

PubMed

Costa, Albert; Foucart, Alice; Arnon, Inbal; Aparici, Melina; Apesteguia, Jose

2014-02-01

In this article, we assess to what extent decision making is affected by the language in which a given problem is presented (native vs. foreign). In particular, we aim to ask whether the impact of various heuristic biases in decision making is diminished when the problems are presented in a foreign language. To this end, we report four main studies in which more than 700 participants were tested on different types of individual decision making problems. In the first study, we replicated Keysar et al.'s (2012) recent observation regarding the foreign language effect on framing effects related to loss aversion. In the second section, we assessed whether the foreign language effect is present in other types of framing problems that involve psychological accounting biases rather than gain/loss dichotomies. In the third section, we studied the foreign language effect in several key aspects of the theory of decision making under risk and uncertainty. In the fourth study, we assessed the presence of a foreign language effect in the cognitive reflection test, a test that includes logical problems that do not carry emotional connotations. The absence of such an effect in this test suggests that foreign language leads to a reduction of heuristic biases in decision making across a range of decision making situations and provide also some evidence about the boundaries of the phenomenon. We explore several potential factors that may underlie the foreign language effect in decision making. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Learning the wrong lessons? Science and fisheries management in the Chesapeake Bay blue crab fishery.

PubMed

Beem, Betsi

2012-05-01

This paper argues that information produced and then taken up for policy decision making is a function of a complex interplay within the scientific community and between scientists and the broader policy network who are all grappling with issues in a complex environment with a high degree of scientific uncertainty. The dynamics of forming and re-forming the scientific community are shaped by political processes, as are the directions and questions scientists attend to in their roles as policy advisors. Three factors: 1) social construction of scientific communities, 2) the indeterminacy of science, and 3) demands by policy makers to have concrete information for decision making; are intertwined in the production and dissemination of information that may serve as the basis for policy learning. Through this process, however, what gets learned may not be what is needed to mitigate the problem, be complete in terms of addressing multiple causations, or be correct.

Intention to Seek Mental Health Treatment for Adolescent Girls: Comparison of Predictors in Mothers and Daughters

PubMed Central

Logsdon, M. Cynthia; Pinto, Melissa D.; LaJoie, A. Scott; Hertweck, Paige; Lynch, Tania; Flamini, Laura

2013-01-01

PROBLEM To examine predictors of intention to seek mental health treatment for adolescent girls in mothers and daughters. METHODS In this cross-sectional study, mothers and adolescent daughters (n = 71) completed measures of behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and intention to seek mental health treatment for the adolescent daughter. FINDINGS Behavioral attitude and perceived behavioral control predicted intention to seek mental health treatment among mothers. Behavioral attitude predicted intention among daughters. There were no associations between mothers and daughters on study variables. CONCLUSIONS To promote shared decision making and engagement in mental health treatment, clinicians may target interventions to the mother’s perceived behavioral control and behavioral attitudes of daughters and mothers. Based upon study results, clinicians should promote shared decision making and concordance between mothers and daughters on attitudes toward mental health treatment. PMID:24180603

Consequences Identification in Forecasting and Ethical Decision-making

PubMed Central

Stenmark, Cheryl K.; Antes, Alison L.; Thiel, Chase E.; Caughron, Jared J.; Wang, Xiaoqian; Mumford, Michael D.

2015-01-01

Forecasting involves predicting outcomes based on observations of the situation at hand. We examined the impact of the number and types of consequences considered on the quality of ethical decision-making. Undergraduates role-played several ethical problems in which they forecast potential outcomes and made decisions. Performance pressure (difficult demands placed on the situation) and interpersonal conflict (clashes among people in the problem situation) were manipulated within each problem scenario. The results indicated that the identification of potential consequences was positively associated with both higher quality forecasts and more ethical decisions. Neither performance pressure nor interpersonal conflict affected the quality of forecasts or decisions. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings and the use of this research approach are discussed. PMID:21460584

GWM-a ground-water management process for the U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model (MODFLOW-2000)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahlfeld, David P.; Barlow, Paul M.; Mulligan, Anne E.

2005-01-01

GWM is a Ground?Water Management Process for the U.S. Geological Survey modular three?dimensional ground?water model, MODFLOW?2000. GWM uses a response?matrix approach to solve several types of linear, nonlinear, and mixed?binary linear ground?water management formulations. Each management formulation consists of a set of decision variables, an objective function, and a set of constraints. Three types of decision variables are supported by GWM: flow?rate decision variables, which are withdrawal or injection rates at well sites; external decision variables, which are sources or sinks of water that are external to the flow model and do not directly affect the state variables of the simulated ground?water system (heads, streamflows, and so forth); and binary variables, which have values of 0 or 1 and are used to define the status of flow?rate or external decision variables. Flow?rate decision variables can represent wells that extend over one or more model cells and be active during one or more model stress periods; external variables also can be active during one or more stress periods. A single objective function is supported by GWM, which can be specified to either minimize or maximize the weighted sum of the three types of decision variables. Four types of constraints can be specified in a GWM formulation: upper and lower bounds on the flow?rate and external decision variables; linear summations of the three types of decision variables; hydraulic?head based constraints, including drawdowns, head differences, and head gradients; and streamflow and streamflow?depletion constraints. The Response Matrix Solution (RMS) Package of GWM uses the Ground?Water Flow Process of MODFLOW to calculate the change in head at each constraint location that results from a perturbation of a flow?rate variable; these changes are used to calculate the response coefficients. For linear management formulations, the resulting matrix of response coefficients is then combined with other components of the linear management formulation to form a complete linear formulation; the formulation is then solved by use of the simplex algorithm, which is incorporated into the RMS Package. Nonlinear formulations arise for simulated conditions that include water?table (unconfined) aquifers or head?dependent boundary conditions (such as streams, drains, or evapotranspiration from the water table). Nonlinear formulations are solved by sequential linear programming; that is, repeated linearization of the nonlinear features of the management problem. In this approach, response coefficients are recalculated for each iteration of the solution process. Mixed?binary linear (or mildly nonlinear) formulations are solved by use of the branch and bound algorithm, which is also incorporated into the RMS Package. Three sample problems are provided to demonstrate the use of GWM for typical ground?water flow management problems. These sample problems provide examples of how GWM input files are constructed to specify the decision variables, objective function, constraints, and solution process for a GWM run. The GWM Process runs with the MODFLOW?2000 Global and Ground?Water Flow Processes, but in its current form GWM cannot be used with the Observation, Sensitivity, Parameter?Estimation, or Ground?Water Transport Processes. The GWM Process is written with a modular structure so that new objective functions, constraint types, and solution algorithms can be added.

Multi-objective optimisation and decision-making of space station logistics strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Yue-he; Luo, Ya-zhong

2016-10-01

Space station logistics strategy optimisation is a complex engineering problem with multiple objectives. Finding a decision-maker-preferred compromise solution becomes more significant when solving such a problem. However, the designer-preferred solution is not easy to determine using the traditional method. Thus, a hybrid approach that combines the multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, physical programming, and differential evolution (DE) algorithm is proposed to deal with the optimisation and decision-making of space station logistics strategies. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is used to acquire a Pareto frontier and help determine the range parameters of the physical programming. Physical programming is employed to convert the four-objective problem into a single-objective problem, and a DE algorithm is applied to solve the resulting physical programming-based optimisation problem. Five kinds of objective preference are simulated and compared. The simulation results indicate that the proposed approach can produce good compromise solutions corresponding to different decision-makers' preferences.

A Decision Support System for Evaluating and Selecting Information Systems Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Hepu; Wibowo, Santoso

2009-01-01

This chapter presents a decision support system (DSS) for effectively solving the information systems (IS) project selection problem. The proposed DSS recognizes the multidimensional nature of the IS project selection problem, the availability of multicriteria analysis (MA) methods, and the preferences of the decision-maker (DM) on the use of specific MA methods in a given situation. A knowledge base consisting of IF-THEN production rules is developed for assisting the DM with a systematic adoption of the most appropriate method with the efficient use of the powerful reasoning and explanation capabilities of intelligent DSS. The idea of letting the problem to be solved determines the method to be used is incorporated into the proposed DSS. As a result, effective decisions can be made for solving the IS project selection problem. An example is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed DSS for solving the problem of selecting IS projects in real world situations.

Number of solutions effects in stem decision: support for the distinction between identification and production processes in priming.

PubMed

Barnhardt, Terrence M

2005-10-01

Three experiments explored the distinction between identification and production processes (e.g., Gabrieli et al., 1999). A stem decision test was introduced, in which participants were asked to state whether there were any English words that began with the presented three-letter stems. In Experiment 1, stem decision priming was robust for single-solution stems, but much reduced for many-solution stems. In Experiment 2, the solutions effect in stem decision was replicated in a within-subjects design, as was the contrast between the presence of priming in a many-solution stem completion test and the absence of priming in a many-solution stem decision test. In Experiment 3, for each critical many-solution stem in the stem decision test, participants studied three words that began with those three letters. Again, priming was not observed. These results were consistent with the notions that (a) many-solution stem completion relies on production processes, (b) the stem decision test eliminates production processes, and (c) single-solution priming relies on identification processes, regardless of whether the test is stem completion or stem decision.

Decision-Making under Criteria Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kureychik, V. M.; Safronenkova, I. B.

2018-05-01

Uncertainty is an essential part of a decision-making procedure. The paper deals with the problem of decision-making under criteria uncertainty. In this context, decision-making under uncertainty, types and conditions of uncertainty were examined. The decision-making problem under uncertainty was formalized. A modification of the mathematical decision support method under uncertainty via ontologies was proposed. A critical distinction of the developed method is ontology usage as its base elements. The goal of this work is a development of a decision-making method under criteria uncertainty with the use of ontologies in the area of multilayer board designing. This method is oriented to improvement of technical-economic values of the examined domain.

Constructing a Graphic Organizer in the Classroom: Introductory Students' Perception of Achievement Using a Decision Map to Solve Aqueous Acid-Base Equilibria Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeMeo, Stephen

2007-01-01

Common examples of graphic organizers include flow diagrams, concept maps, and decision trees. The author has created a novel type of graphic organizer called a decision map. A decision map is a directional heuristic that helps learners solve problems within a generic framework. It incorporates questions that the user must answer and contains…

Electricity system expansion studies to consider uncertainties and interactions in restructured markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Shan

This dissertation concerns power system expansion planning under different market mechanisms. The thesis follows a three paper format, in which each paper emphasizes a different perspective. The first paper investigates the impact of market uncertainties on a long term centralized generation expansion planning problem. The problem is modeled as a two-stage stochastic program with uncertain fuel prices and demands, which are represented as probabilistic scenario paths in a multi-period tree. Two measurements, expected cost (EC) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), are used to minimize, respectively, the total expected cost among scenarios and the risk of incurring high costs in unfavorable scenarios. We sample paths from the scenario tree to reduce the problem scale and determine the sufficient number of scenarios by computing confidence intervals on the objective values. The second paper studies an integrated electricity supply system including generation, transmission and fuel transportation with a restructured wholesale electricity market. This integrated system expansion problem is modeled as a bi-level program in which a centralized system expansion decision is made in the upper level and the operational decisions of multiple market participants are made in the lower level. The difficulty of solving a bi-level programming problem to global optimality is discussed and three problem relaxations obtained by reformulation are explored. The third paper solves a more realistic market-based generation and transmission expansion problem. It focuses on interactions among a centralized transmission expansion decision and decentralized generation expansion decisions. It allows each generator to make its own strategic investment and operational decisions both in response to a transmission expansion decision and in anticipation of a market price settled by an Independent System Operator (ISO) market clearing problem. The model poses a complicated tri-level structure including an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC) sub-problem. A hybrid iterative algorithm is proposed to solve the problem efficiently and reliably.

Predictive modelling: parents’ decision making to use online child health information to increase their understanding and/or diagnose or treat their child’s health

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The quantum increases in home Internet access and available online health information with limited control over information quality highlight the necessity of exploring decision making processes in accessing and using online information, specifically in relation to children who do not make their health decisions. The aim of this study was to understand the processes explaining parents’ decisions to use online health information for child health care. Methods Parents (N = 391) completed an initial questionnaire assessing the theory of planned behaviour constructs of attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioural control, as well as perceived risk, group norm, and additional demographic factors. Two months later, 187 parents completed a follow-up questionnaire assessing their decisions to use online information for their child’s health care, specifically to 1) diagnose and/or treat their child’s suspected medical condition/illness and 2) increase understanding about a diagnosis or treatment recommended by a health professional. Results Hierarchical multiple regression showed that, for both behaviours, attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control, (less) perceived risk, group norm, and (non) medical background were the significant predictors of intention. For parents’ use of online child health information, for both behaviours, intention was the sole significant predictor of behaviour. The findings explain 77% of the variance in parents’ intention to treat/diagnose a child health problem and 74% of the variance in their intentions to increase their understanding about child health concerns. Conclusions Understanding parents’ socio-cognitive processes that guide their use of online information for child health care is important given the increase in Internet usage and the sometimes-questionable quality of health information provided online. Findings highlight parents’ thirst for information; there is an urgent need for health professionals to provide parents with evidence-based child health websites in addition to general population education on how to evaluate the quality of online health information. PMID:23228171

Are patient decision aids the best way to improve clinical decision making? Report of the IPDAS Symposium.

PubMed

Holmes-Rovner, Margaret; Nelson, Wendy L; Pignone, Michael; Elwyn, Glyn; Rovner, David R; O'Connor, Annette M; Coulter, Angela; Correa-de-Araujo, Rosaly

2007-01-01

This article reports on the International Patient Decision Aid Standards Symposium held in 2006 at the annual meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The symposium featured a debate regarding the proposition that "decision aids are the best way to improve clinical decision making.'' The formal debate addressed the theoretical problem of the appropriate gold standard for an improved decision, efficacy of decision aids, and prospects for implementation. Audience comments and questions focused on both theory and practice: the often unacknowledged roots of decision aids in expected utility theory and the practical problems of limited patient decision aid implementation in health care. The participants' vote on the proposition was approximately half for and half against.

Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

PubMed

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

2016-02-01

Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

An optimal repartitioning decision policy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, D. M.; Reynolds, P. F., Jr.

1986-01-01

A central problem to parallel processing is the determination of an effective partitioning of workload to processors. The effectiveness of any given partition is dependent on the stochastic nature of the workload. The problem of determining when and if the stochastic behavior of the workload has changed enough to warrant the calculation of a new partition is treated. The problem is modeled as a Markov decision process, and an optimal decision policy is derived. Quantification of this policy is usually intractable. A heuristic policy which performs nearly optimally is investigated empirically. The results suggest that the detection of change is the predominant issue in this problem.

Priority setting: what constitutes success? A conceptual framework for successful priority setting

PubMed Central

Sibbald, Shannon L; Singer, Peter A; Upshur, Ross; Martin, Douglas K

2009-01-01

Background The sustainability of healthcare systems worldwide is threatened by a growing demand for services and expensive innovative technologies. Decision makers struggle in this environment to set priorities appropriately, particularly because they lack consensus about which values should guide their decisions. One way to approach this problem is to determine what all relevant stakeholders understand successful priority setting to mean. The goal of this research was to develop a conceptual framework for successful priority setting. Methods Three separate empirical studies were completed using qualitative data collection methods (one-on-one interviews with healthcare decision makers from across Canada; focus groups with representation of patients, caregivers and policy makers; and Delphi study including scholars and decision makers from five countries). Results This paper synthesizes the findings from three studies into a framework of ten separate but interconnected elements germane to successful priority setting: stakeholder understanding, shifted priorities/reallocation of resources, decision making quality, stakeholder acceptance and satisfaction, positive externalities, stakeholder engagement, use of explicit process, information management, consideration of values and context, and revision or appeals mechanism. Conclusion The ten elements specify both quantitative and qualitative dimensions of priority setting and relate to both process and outcome components. To our knowledge, this is the first framework that describes successful priority setting. The ten elements identified in this research provide guidance for decision makers and a common language to discuss priority setting success and work toward improving priority setting efforts. PMID:19265518

Common decisions made and actions taken during small-animal consultations at eight first-opinion practices in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Robinson, N J; Brennan, M L; Cobb, M; Dean, R S

2017-04-01

In order for veterinary surgeons to undertake an evidence-based approach to making decisions about their patients, it is important that new evidence is generated to support the clinical decision-making process. Many of the decisions are likely to be around the actions taken to treat or manage health problems discussed during the consultation, and little is currently known about the factors which affect the type of action taken. The aim of this study was to determine the decisions made and actions taken for health problems discussed during first-opinion small-animal consultations, as well as identifying factors which may affect the decision-making process. Data were gathered during direct observation of small-animal consultations conducted by 62 veterinary surgeons in eight first-opinion practices in the United Kingdom. For each patient presented, data were gathered on all health problems discussed during the consultation. The decision made (whether an action was taken or not) and the action taken where applicable (e.g. therapeutic treatment with antibiotics) was also recorded. A three-level multivariable logistic-regression model was developed, with problem (Level 1) nested within patient (Level 2) nested within consulting veterinary surgeon (Level 3), and a binary outcome variable of action versus no action. At least one action was taken for 69% (n=2203/3192) of all problems discussed. Therapeutic treatment was the most common action taken (n=1286/3192 problems; 40.3%), followed by management advice (n=1040/3192; 32.6%) and diagnostic work-up (n=323/3192; 10.1%). The most common therapeutic treatment was antibiotics (n=386/1286; 30%), while the most common management advice given was dietary advice (n=509/1040; 48.9%). The three explanatory variables remaining in the final model were whether the problem was a presenting or non-presenting problem, the type of diagnosis made, and the body system affected. Explanatory variables which did not remain in the final model were patient signalment, problem history, consultation type, clinical examination type, and who raised the problem (veterinary surgeon or owner). For over two-thirds of problems discussed, an action was taken which suggests these problems may be seen as important by the veterinary surgeon and/or pet owner. No action was taken for almost a third of cases which could represent 'watchful waiting', which has been highlighted as important in human healthcare. Future research should focus on the common actions taken, further exploring the complex decision-making process, and examining the effect of the decisions made on long-term patient outcomes. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The application of remote sensing to resource management and environmental quality programs in Kansas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barr, B. G.; Martinko, E. A.

1976-01-01

Activities of the Kansas Applied Remote Sensing Program (KARS) designed to establish interactions on cooperative projects with decision makers in Kansas agencies in the development and application of remote sensing procedures are reported. Cooperative demonstration projects undertaken with several different agencies involved three principal areas of effort: Wildlife Habitat and Environmental Analysis; Urban and Regional Analysis; Agricultural and Rural Analysis. These projects were designed to concentrate remote sensing concepts and methodologies on existing agency problems to insure the continued relevancy of the program and maximize the possibility for immediate operational use. Completed projects are briefly discussed.

Advance decision.

PubMed

Samuels, Alec; Barrister, J P

2007-10-01

In the UK, patients have a statutory right to refuse treatment. Parliament has authorised 'advance decision' whereby a person can specify his or her wishes regarding further medical treatment. Although the advance decision may give a person peace of mind, it could create real problems for doctors and other healthcare professionals. This article will examine the conditions and procedures surrounding the drawing up of an advance decision as well as some of the problems that could arise such as layman's language.

Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Runge, Michael C.; Thompson, Frank R.; McNulty, Steven; Cleaves, David; Tomosy, Monica; Fisher, Larry A.; Andrew, Bliss

2012-01-01

Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.

New integrated and multiscale decision-aiding framework in a context of imperfect information: application to the assessment of torrent checkdams' effectiveness.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tacnet, Jean-Marc; Carladous, Simon; Dezert, Jean; Batton-Hubert, Mireille

2017-04-01

Mountain natural phenomena (e.g. torrential floods) put people and buildings at risk. Civil engineering protection works such as torrent check-dams are designed to mitigate those natural risks. Protection works act on both causes and effects of phenomena to reduce consequences and therefore risks. For instance, check-dams control sediment production and liquid/solid flow of torrential floods: several series of dams are located in the headwaters of a watershed, each having specific functions. All those works are damaged by time passing and flood impacts. Effectiveness assessment is needed to define, compare or choose strategies for investment and maintenance which are essential issues in risk management process. Decision support tools are expected to analyze at different scales both their technical effectiveness (related to their structural state and functional effects on phenomena such as stopping, braking, guiding, etc.) and their economic efficiency through comparison between benefits and costs. Several methods, often based on expert knowledge, have already been developed to care about decision under risk. But uncertainty has also to be considered, since decisions are indeed often taken in a context of lack of information and knowledge on natural phenomena, heterogeneity of available information and, finally, reliability of sources. First methods derived from classical industrial contexts, such as dependability analysis, are used to formalize expert knowledge used for decision-making. After having defined the concept of effectiveness, dependability analysis are used to identify decision contexts and problems: criteria and indicators are identified in relation with structural or functional features. Then, innovative and multi-scales multi-criteria decision-making methods (MCDMs) and frameworks are proposed to help assessing protection works effectiveness. They combine classical MCDM approaches, belief function, fuzzy sets and possibility theories. Those methods allow to make decisions based on heterogeneous, imprecise and uncertain evaluation of criteria provided by more or less reliable sources in an uncertain context: COWA-ER (Cautious Ordered Weighted Averaging with Evidential Reasoning), Fuzzy-Cautious OWA or ER-MCDA (Evidential Reasoning for Multi Criteria Decision Analysis) are thus applied to several scales of torrent check-dams' effectiveness assessment. Those methods are then improved for a better knowledge representation and final decision. Enhanced methods are then associated together. Finally, individual problems and associated methods are integrated in a generic methodology to move from torrential protective single measure effectiveness assessment to complete protection systems at watershed scale.

Model-Based Design of Tree WSNs for Decentralized Detection.

PubMed

Tantawy, Ashraf; Koutsoukos, Xenofon; Biswas, Gautam

2015-08-20

The classical decentralized detection problem of finding the optimal decision rules at the sensor and fusion center, as well as variants that introduce physical channel impairments have been studied extensively in the literature. The deployment of WSNs in decentralized detection applications brings new challenges to the field. Protocols for different communication layers have to be co-designed to optimize the detection performance. In this paper, we consider the communication network design problem for a tree WSN. We pursue a system-level approach where a complete model for the system is developed that captures the interactions between different layers, as well as different sensor quality measures. For network optimization, we propose a hierarchical optimization algorithm that lends itself to the tree structure, requiring only local network information. The proposed design approach shows superior performance over several contentionless and contention-based network design approaches.

Haplotyping for disease association: a combinatorial approach.

PubMed

Lancia, Giuseppe; Ravi, R; Rizzi, Romeo

2008-01-01

We consider a combinatorial problem derived from haplotyping a population with respect to a genetic disease, either recessive or dominant. Given a set of individuals, partitioned into healthy and diseased, and the corresponding sets of genotypes, we want to infer "bad'' and "good'' haplotypes to account for these genotypes and for the disease. Assume e.g. the disease is recessive. Then, the resolving haplotypes must consist of bad and good haplotypes, so that (i) each genotype belonging to a diseased individual is explained by a pair of bad haplotypes and (ii) each genotype belonging to a healthy individual is explained by a pair of haplotypes of which at least one is good. We prove that the associated decision problem is NP-complete. However, we also prove that there is a simple solution, provided the data satisfy a very weak requirement.

Jamming Attack in Wireless Sensor Network: From Time to Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Yanqiang; Wang, Xiaodong; Zhou, Xingming

Classical jamming attack models in the time domain have been proposed, such as constant jammer, random jammer, and reactive jammer. In this letter, we consider a new problem: given k jammers, how does the attacker minimize the pair-wise connectivity among the nodes in a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN)? We call this problem k-Jammer Deployment Problem (k-JDP). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt at considering the position-critical jamming attack against wireless sensor network. We mainly make three contributions. First, we prove that the decision version of k-JDP is NP-complete even in the ideal situation where the attacker has full knowledge of the topology information of sensor network. Second, we propose a mathematical formulation based on Integer Programming (IP) model which yields an optimal solution. Third, we present a heuristic algorithm HAJDP, and compare it with the IP model. Numerical results show that our heuristic algorithm is computationally efficient.

Optimization of parameters of special asynchronous electric drives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karandey, V. Yu; Popov, B. K.; Popova, O. B.; Afanasyev, V. L.

2018-03-01

The article considers the solution of the problem of parameters optimization of special asynchronous electric drives. The solution of the problem will allow one to project and create special asynchronous electric drives for various industries. The created types of electric drives will have optimum mass-dimensional and power parameters. It will allow one to realize and fulfill the set characteristics of management of technological processes with optimum level of expenses of electric energy, time of completing the process or other set parameters. The received decision allows one not only to solve a certain optimizing problem, but also to construct dependences between the optimized parameters of special asynchronous electric drives, for example, with the change of power, current in a winding of the stator or rotor, induction in a gap or steel of magnetic conductors and other parameters. On the constructed dependences, it is possible to choose necessary optimum values of parameters of special asynchronous electric drives and their components without carrying out repeated calculations.

The Role of Independent V&V in Upstream Software Development Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Easterbrook, Steve

1996-01-01

This paper describes the role of Verification and Validation (V&V) during the requirements and high level design processes, and in particular the role of Independent V&V (IV&V). The job of IV&V during these phases is to ensure that the requirements are complete, consistent and valid, and to ensure that the high level design meets the requirements. This contrasts with the role of Quality Assurance (QA), which ensures that appropriate standards and process models are defined and applied. This paper describes the current state of practice for IV&V, concentrating on the process model used in NASA projects. We describe a case study, showing the processes by which problem reporting and tracking takes place, and how IV&V feeds into decision making by the development team. We then describe the problems faced in implementing IV&V. We conclude that despite a well defined process model, and tools to support it, IV&V is still beset by communication and coordination problems.

Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets

PubMed Central

Doubravsky, Karel; Dohnal, Mirko

2015-01-01

Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (re)checked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items) can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities) are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details. PMID:26158662

Reconciliation of Decision-Making Heuristics Based on Decision Trees Topologies and Incomplete Fuzzy Probabilities Sets.

PubMed

Doubravsky, Karel; Dohnal, Mirko

2015-01-01

Complex decision making tasks of different natures, e.g. economics, safety engineering, ecology and biology, are based on vague, sparse, partially inconsistent and subjective knowledge. Moreover, decision making economists / engineers are usually not willing to invest too much time into study of complex formal theories. They require such decisions which can be (re)checked by human like common sense reasoning. One important problem related to realistic decision making tasks are incomplete data sets required by the chosen decision making algorithm. This paper presents a relatively simple algorithm how some missing III (input information items) can be generated using mainly decision tree topologies and integrated into incomplete data sets. The algorithm is based on an easy to understand heuristics, e.g. a longer decision tree sub-path is less probable. This heuristic can solve decision problems under total ignorance, i.e. the decision tree topology is the only information available. But in a practice, isolated information items e.g. some vaguely known probabilities (e.g. fuzzy probabilities) are usually available. It means that a realistic problem is analysed under partial ignorance. The proposed algorithm reconciles topology related heuristics and additional fuzzy sets using fuzzy linear programming. The case study, represented by a tree with six lotteries and one fuzzy probability, is presented in details.

A Model of Supervisor Decision-Making in the Accommodation of Workers with Low Back Pain.

PubMed

Williams-Whitt, Kelly; Kristman, Vicki; Shaw, William S; Soklaridis, Sophie; Reguly, Paula

2016-09-01

Purpose To explore supervisors' perspectives and decision-making processes in the accommodation of back injured workers. Methods Twenty-three semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with supervisors from eleven Canadian organizations about their role in providing job accommodations. Supervisors were identified through an on-line survey and interviews were recorded, transcribed and entered into NVivo software. The initial analyses identified common units of meaning, which were used to develop a coding guide. Interviews were coded, and a model of supervisor decision-making was developed based on the themes, categories and connecting ideas identified in the data. Results The decision-making model includes a process element that is described as iterative "trial and error" decision-making. Medical restrictions are compared to job demands, employee abilities and available alternatives. A feasible modification is identified through brainstorming and then implemented by the supervisor. Resources used for brainstorming include information, supervisor experience and autonomy, and organizational supports. The model also incorporates the experience of accommodation as a job demand that causes strain for the supervisor. Accommodation demands affect the supervisor's attitude, brainstorming and monitoring effort, and communication with returning employees. Resources and demands have a combined effect on accommodation decision complexity, which in turn affects the quality of the accommodation option selected. If the employee is unable to complete the tasks or is reinjured during the accommodation, the decision cycle repeats. More frequent iteration through the trial and error process reduces the likelihood of return to work success. Conclusion A series of propositions is developed to illustrate the relationships among categories in the model. The model and propositions show: (a) the iterative, problem solving nature of the RTW process; (b) decision resources necessary for accommodation planning, and (c) the impact accommodation demands may have on supervisors and RTW quality.

Impaired Decision-Making, Higher Impulsivity, and Drug Severity in Substance Dependence and Pathological Gambling.

PubMed

Krmpotich, Theodore; Mikulich-Gilbertson, Susan; Sakai, Joseph; Thompson, Laetitia; Banich, Marie T; Tanabe, Jody

2015-01-01

Substance use disorder is characterized by impaired decision making, impulsivity, and risk taking. Pathological gambling shares many of these characteristics, and having both diagnoses may be associated with greater problems than either diagnosis alone. We investigated whether among substance-dependent individuals, comorbid pathological gambling would be associated with worse decision making, greater impulsivity, risk taking, and drug severity. Ninety-six substance-dependent individuals were recruited from a residential treatment program and divided into 1 of the 2 groups depending on whether they met Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, criteria for pathological gambling (SDPG, n = 26) or not (SD, n = 70). Ninety-two controls were recruited from the community. Participants completed a decision-making task (modified Iowa Gambling Task), measures of impulsivity (Barratt Impulsivity Scale and Delay Discounting), and risk taking (Balloon Analog Risk Task). Decision making was analyzed using a computational model. We tested for group differences using analysis of covariance or Kruskal-Wallis and appropriate post-hoc tests. The groups differed in decision-making parameters (P < 0.001) and self-reported impulsivity (P < 0.001). All post-hoc comparisons were significant on these measures, and indicated stepwise changes in controls, followed by SD, followed by SDPG, with SDPG performing worse on decision making and being more impulsive. Compared with SD, SDPG had greater drug severity (P < 0.001). No group differences were observed in delay discounting or risk taking. Compared with individuals with substance dependence without pathological gambling, those with both disorders demonstrated worse decision making and significantly more drug-related symptoms. When evaluating patients with substance dependence, clinicians should consider diagnostic assessments for gambling, as the co-occurrence of both disorders may impact clinical characteristics.

[The framing effect: medical implications].

PubMed

Mazzocco, Ketti; Cherubini, Paolo; Rumiati, Rino

2005-01-01

Over the last 20 years, many studies explored how the way information is presented modifies choices. This sort of effect, referred to as "framing effects", typically consists of the inversion of choices when presenting structurally identical decision problems in different ways. It is a common assumption that physicians are unaffected (or less affected) by the surface description of a decision problem, because they are formally trained in medical decision making. However, several studies showed that framing effects occur even in the medical field. The complexity and variability of these effects are remarkable, making it necessary to distinguish among different framing effects, depending on whether the effect is obtained by modifying adjectives (attribute framing), goals of a behavior (goal framing), or the probability of an outcome (risky choice framing). A further reason for the high variability of the framing effects seems to be the domain of the decision problem, with different effects occurring in prevention decisions, disease-detection decisions, and treatment decisions. The present work reviews the studies on framing effects, in order to summarize them and clarify their possible role in medical decision making.

Affective decision-making predictive of Chinese adolescent drinking behaviors

PubMed Central

XIAO, LIN; BECHARA, ANTOINE; GRENARD, L. JERRY; STACY, W. ALAN; PALMER, PAULA; WEI, YONGLAN; JIA, YONG; FU, XIAOLU; JOHNSON, C. ANDERSON

2013-01-01

The goal of the current investigation was to address whether affective decision making would serve as a unique neuropsychological marker to predict drinking behaviors among adolescents. We conducted a longitudinal study of 181 Chinese adolescents in Chengdu city, China. In their 10th grade (ages 15–16), these adolescents were tested for their affective decision-making ability using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and working memory capacity using the Self-Ordered Pointing Test. Self-report questionnaires were used to assess academic performance and drinking behaviors. At 1-year follow-up, questionnaires were completed to assess drinking behaviors, and the UPPS Impulsive Behavior Scale was used to examine four dimensions of impulsivity: urgency, lack of premeditation, lack of perseverance, and sensation seeking. Results indicated that those adolescents who progressed to binge drinking or exhibited consistent binge drinking not only performed poorly on the IGT but also scored significantly higher in urgency compared to those who never or occasionally drank. Moreover, better IGT scores predicted fewer drinking problems and fewer drinks 1 year later after controlling for demographic variables, the previous drinking behaviors, working memory, and impulsivity. These findings suggest that deficits in affective decision making may be important independent determinants of compulsive drinking and potentially addictive behavior in adolescents. PMID:19573273

Exploration-Related Research on the International Space Station: Connecting Science Results to the Design of Future Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhatigan, Jennifer L.; Robinson, Julie A.; Sawin, Charles F.; Ahlf, Peter R.

2005-01-01

In January, 2004, the US President announced a vision for space exploration, and charged NASA with utilizing the International Space Station (ISS) for research and technology targeted at supporting the US space exploration goals. This paper describes: 1) what we have learned from the first four years of research on ISS relative to the exploration mission, 2) the on-going research being conducted in this regard, 3) our current understanding of the major exploration mission risks that the ISS can be used to address, and 4) current progress in realigning NASA s research portfolio for ISS to support exploration missions. Specifically, we discuss the focus of research on solving the perplexing problems of maintaining human health on long-duration missions, and the development of countermeasures to protect humans from the space environment, enabling long duration exploration missions. The interchange between mission design and research needs is dynamic, where design decisions influence the type of research needed, and results of research influence design decisions. The fundamental challenge to science on ISS is completing experiments that answer key questions in time to shape design decisions for future exploration. In this context, exploration-relevant research must do more than be conceptually connected to design decisions-it must become a part of the mission design process.

Children's Use of Meta-Cognition in Solving Everyday Problems: Children's Monetary Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Chwee Beng; Koh, Noi Keng; Cai, Xin Le; Quek, Choon Lang

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to understand how children use meta-cognition in their everyday problem-solving, particularly making monetary decisions. A particular focus was to identify components of meta-cognition, such as regulation of cognition and knowledge of cognition observed in children's monetary decision-making process, the roles of…

Collaborative Visual Analytics: A Health Analytics Approach to Injury Prevention

PubMed Central

Fisher, Brian; Smith, Jennifer; Pike, Ian

2017-01-01

Background: Accurate understanding of complex health data is critical in order to deal with wicked health problems and make timely decisions. Wicked problems refer to ill-structured and dynamic problems that combine multidimensional elements, which often preclude the conventional problem solving approach. This pilot study introduces visual analytics (VA) methods to multi-stakeholder decision-making sessions about child injury prevention; Methods: Inspired by the Delphi method, we introduced a novel methodology—group analytics (GA). GA was pilot-tested to evaluate the impact of collaborative visual analytics on facilitating problem solving and supporting decision-making. We conducted two GA sessions. Collected data included stakeholders’ observations, audio and video recordings, questionnaires, and follow up interviews. The GA sessions were analyzed using the Joint Activity Theory protocol analysis methods; Results: The GA methodology triggered the emergence of ‘common ground’ among stakeholders. This common ground evolved throughout the sessions to enhance stakeholders’ verbal and non-verbal communication, as well as coordination of joint activities and ultimately collaboration on problem solving and decision-making; Conclusions: Understanding complex health data is necessary for informed decisions. Equally important, in this case, is the use of the group analytics methodology to achieve ‘common ground’ among diverse stakeholders about health data and their implications. PMID:28895928

The environmental management problem of Pohorje, Slovenia: A new group approach within ANP - SWOT framework.

PubMed

Grošelj, Petra; Zadnik Stirn, Lidija

2015-09-15

Environmental management problems can be dealt with by combining participatory methods, which make it possible to include various stakeholders in a decision-making process, and multi-criteria methods, which offer a formal model for structuring and solving a problem. This paper proposes a three-phase decision making approach based on the analytic network process and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis. The approach enables inclusion of various stakeholders or groups of stakeholders in particular stages of decision making. The structure of the proposed approach is composed of a network consisting of an objective cluster, a cluster of strategic goals, a cluster of SWOT factors and a cluster of alternatives. The application of the suggested approach is applied to a management problem of Pohorje, a mountainous area in Slovenia. Stakeholders from sectors that are important for Pohorje (forestry, agriculture, tourism and nature protection agencies) who can offer a wide range of expert knowledge were included in the decision-making process. The results identify the alternative of "sustainable development" as the most appropriate for development of Pohorje. The application in the paper offers an example of employing the new approach to an environmental management problem. This can also be applied to decision-making problems in various other fields. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Collaborative Visual Analytics: A Health Analytics Approach to Injury Prevention.

PubMed

Al-Hajj, Samar; Fisher, Brian; Smith, Jennifer; Pike, Ian

2017-09-12

Background : Accurate understanding of complex health data is critical in order to deal with wicked health problems and make timely decisions. Wicked problems refer to ill-structured and dynamic problems that combine multidimensional elements, which often preclude the conventional problem solving approach. This pilot study introduces visual analytics (VA) methods to multi-stakeholder decision-making sessions about child injury prevention; Methods : Inspired by the Delphi method, we introduced a novel methodology-group analytics (GA). GA was pilot-tested to evaluate the impact of collaborative visual analytics on facilitating problem solving and supporting decision-making. We conducted two GA sessions. Collected data included stakeholders' observations, audio and video recordings, questionnaires, and follow up interviews. The GA sessions were analyzed using the Joint Activity Theory protocol analysis methods; Results : The GA methodology triggered the emergence of ' common g round ' among stakeholders. This common ground evolved throughout the sessions to enhance stakeholders' verbal and non-verbal communication, as well as coordination of joint activities and ultimately collaboration on problem solving and decision-making; Conclusion s : Understanding complex health data is necessary for informed decisions. Equally important, in this case, is the use of the group analytics methodology to achieve ' common ground' among diverse stakeholders about health data and their implications.

Comparison of fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TODIM methods for landfill location selection.

PubMed

Hanine, Mohamed; Boutkhoum, Omar; Tikniouine, Abdessadek; Agouti, Tarik

2016-01-01

Landfill location selection is a multi-criteria decision problem and has a strategic importance for many regions. The conventional methods for landfill location selection are insufficient in dealing with the vague or imprecise nature of linguistic assessment. To resolve this problem, fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making methods are proposed. The aim of this paper is to use fuzzy TODIM (the acronym for Interactive and Multi-criteria Decision Making in Portuguese) and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methods for the selection of landfill location. The proposed methods have been applied to a landfill location selection problem in the region of Casablanca, Morocco. After determining the criteria affecting the landfill location decisions, fuzzy TODIM and fuzzy AHP methods are applied to the problem and results are presented. The comparisons of these two methods are also discussed.

Decision-making Strategies and Performance among Seniors1

PubMed Central

Besedeš, Tibor; Deck, Cary; Sarangi, Sudipta; Shor, Mikhael

2011-01-01

Using paper and pencil experiments administered in senior centers, we examine decision-making performance in multi-attribute decision problems. We differentiate the effects of declining cognitive performance and changing cognitive process on decision-making performance of seniors as they age. We find a significant decline in performance with age due to reduced reliance on common heuristics and increased decision-making randomness among our oldest subjects. However, we find that increasing the number of options in a decision problem increases the number of heuristics brought to the task. This challenges the choice overload view that people give up when confronted with too much choice. PMID:22408282

Linguistic Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making with Risk Preferences and Its Use in Low-Carbon Tourism Destination Selection.

PubMed

Lin, Hui; Wang, Zhou-Jing

2017-09-17

Low-carbon tourism plays an important role in carbon emission reduction and environmental protection. Low-carbon tourism destination selection often involves multiple conflicting and incommensurate attributes or criteria and can be modelled as a multi-attribute decision-making problem. This paper develops a framework to solve multi-attribute group decision-making problems, where attribute evaluation values are provided as linguistic terms and the attribute weight information is incomplete. In order to obtain a group risk preference captured by a linguistic term set with triangular fuzzy semantic information, a nonlinear programming model is established on the basis of individual risk preferences. We first convert individual linguistic-term-based decision matrices to their respective triangular fuzzy decision matrices, which are then aggregated into a group triangular fuzzy decision matrix. Based on this group decision matrix and the incomplete attribute weight information, a linear program is developed to find an optimal attribute weight vector. A detailed procedure is devised for tackling linguistic multi-attribute group decision making problems. A low-carbon tourism destination selection case study is offered to illustrate how to use the developed group decision-making model in practice.

Linguistic Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making with Risk Preferences and Its Use in Low-Carbon Tourism Destination Selection

PubMed Central

Lin, Hui; Wang, Zhou-Jing

2017-01-01

Low-carbon tourism plays an important role in carbon emission reduction and environmental protection. Low-carbon tourism destination selection often involves multiple conflicting and incommensurate attributes or criteria and can be modelled as a multi-attribute decision-making problem. This paper develops a framework to solve multi-attribute group decision-making problems, where attribute evaluation values are provided as linguistic terms and the attribute weight information is incomplete. In order to obtain a group risk preference captured by a linguistic term set with triangular fuzzy semantic information, a nonlinear programming model is established on the basis of individual risk preferences. We first convert individual linguistic-term-based decision matrices to their respective triangular fuzzy decision matrices, which are then aggregated into a group triangular fuzzy decision matrix. Based on this group decision matrix and the incomplete attribute weight information, a linear program is developed to find an optimal attribute weight vector. A detailed procedure is devised for tackling linguistic multi-attribute group decision making problems. A low-carbon tourism destination selection case study is offered to illustrate how to use the developed group decision-making model in practice. PMID:28926985

Association Between Anticipatory Grief and Problem Solving Among Family Caregivers of Persons with Cognitive Impairment

PubMed Central

Fowler, Nicole R.; Hansen, Alexandra S.; Barnato, Amber E.; Garand, Linda

2013-01-01

Objective Measure perceived involvement in medical decision making and determine if anticipatory grief is associated with problem solving among family caregivers of older adults with cognitive impairment. Method Retrospective analysis of baseline data from a caregiver intervention (n=73). Multivariable regression models testing the association between caregivers’ anticipatory grief, measured by the Anticipatory Grief Scale (AGS), with problem solving abilities, measured by the Social Problem Solving Inventory – Revised: Short Form (SPSI-R: S). Results 47/73 (64%) of caregivers reported involvement in medical decision making. Mean AGS was 70.1 (± 14.8) and mean SPSI-R:S was 107.2 (± 11.6). Higher AGS scores were associated with lower positive problem orientation (P=0.041) and higher negative problem orientation scores (P=0.001) but not other components of problem solving- rational problem solving, avoidance style, and impulsivity/carelessness style. Discussion Higher anticipatory grief among family caregivers impaired problem solving, which could have negative consequences for their medical decision making responsibilities. PMID:23428394

Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

A Cognitive Information Processing Approach to Employment Problem Solving and Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sampson, James P., Jr.; Lenz, Janet G.; Reardon, Robert C.; Peterson, Gary W.

1999-01-01

Applies a cognitive information processing approach to the specific process of employment problem solving and decision making. Definitions and accompanying employment examples are followed by an exploration of the nature of employment problems. Examples of positive and negative cognitions that have an impact on the effectiveness of employment…

Topics in inference and decision-making with partial knowledge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safavian, S. Rasoul; Landgrebe, David

1990-01-01

Two essential elements needed in the process of inference and decision-making are prior probabilities and likelihood functions. When both of these components are known accurately and precisely, the Bayesian approach provides a consistent and coherent solution to the problems of inference and decision-making. In many situations, however, either one or both of the above components may not be known, or at least may not be known precisely. This problem of partial knowledge about prior probabilities and likelihood functions is addressed. There are at least two ways to cope with this lack of precise knowledge: robust methods, and interval-valued methods. First, ways of modeling imprecision and indeterminacies in prior probabilities and likelihood functions are examined; then how imprecision in the above components carries over to the posterior probabilities is examined. Finally, the problem of decision making with imprecise posterior probabilities and the consequences of such actions are addressed. Application areas where the above problems may occur are in statistical pattern recognition problems, for example, the problem of classification of high-dimensional multispectral remote sensing image data.

Innovative environmental education contributes to improved management practices in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States.

PubMed

Bradley, M Patricia; Hanson, Royce; Walbeck, Eric S

2004-06-01

The Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA) and its partner, University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) have developed a graduate-level course focused on successful application of science by decision-makers to address a particular problem. Students conduct a literature review, interview the decision-makers and scientists, and synthesize and document the management problem, the science that was applied to that problem, and other issues that might constrain or drive the solution (e.g., legalities, social pressures, expense, politics, personalities, etc.). Students also quantify the results, evaluate who the intended audience is and how they most appropriately target them, and determine if there are other management problems that could be addressed with the science. The final products are short publications geared towards other decision-makers who might have a similar problem and might be seeking successful innovative solutions. MAIA is distributing these short publications to decision-makers throughout the Mid-Atlantic Region. The publications have been very positively received by state and local governments and watershed groups.

Data on the migration of health-care workers: sources, uses, and challenges.

PubMed Central

Diallo, Khassoum

2004-01-01

The migration of health workers within and between countries is a growing concern worldwide because of its impact on health systems in developing and developed countries alike. Policy decisions need to be made at the national, regional and international levels to manage more effectively this phenomenon, but those decisions will be effective and correctly implemented and evaluated only if they are based on adequate statistical data. Most statistics on the migration of health-care workers are neither complete nor fully comparable, and they are often underused, limited (because they often give only a broad description of the phenomena) and not as timely as required. There is also a conflict between the wide range of potential sources of data and the poor statistical evidence on the migration of health personnel. There are two major problems facing researchers who wish to provide evidence on this migration: the problems commonly faced when studying migration in general, such as definitional and comparability problems of "worker migrations" and those related to the specific movements of the health workforce. This paper presents information on the uses of statistics and those who use them, the strengths and limitations of the main data sources, and other challenges that need to be met to obtain good evidence on the migration of health workers. This paper also proposes methods to improve the collection, analysis, sharing, and use of statistics on the migration of health workers. PMID:15375450

Decision-making without a brain: how an amoeboid organism solves the two-armed bandit.

PubMed

Reid, Chris R; MacDonald, Hannelore; Mann, Richard P; Marshall, James A R; Latty, Tanya; Garnier, Simon

2016-06-01

Several recent studies hint at shared patterns in decision-making between taxonomically distant organisms, yet few studies demonstrate and dissect mechanisms of decision-making in simpler organisms. We examine decision-making in the unicellular slime mould Physarum polycephalum using a classical decision problem adapted from human and animal decision-making studies: the two-armed bandit problem. This problem has previously only been used to study organisms with brains, yet here we demonstrate that a brainless unicellular organism compares the relative qualities of multiple options, integrates over repeated samplings to perform well in random environments, and combines information on reward frequency and magnitude in order to make correct and adaptive decisions. We extend our inquiry by using Bayesian model selection to determine the most likely algorithm used by the cell when making decisions. We deduce that this algorithm centres around a tendency to exploit environments in proportion to their reward experienced through past sampling. The algorithm is intermediate in computational complexity between simple, reactionary heuristics and calculation-intensive optimal performance algorithms, yet it has very good relative performance. Our study provides insight into ancestral mechanisms of decision-making and suggests that fundamental principles of decision-making, information processing and even cognition are shared among diverse biological systems. © 2016 The Authors.

Features of computerized clinical decision support systems supportive of nursing practice: a literature review.

PubMed

Lee, Seonah

2013-10-01

This study aimed to organize the system features of decision support technologies targeted at nursing practice into assessment, problem identification, care plans, implementation, and outcome evaluation. It also aimed to identify the range of the five stage-related sequential decision supports that computerized clinical decision support systems provided. MEDLINE, CINAHL, and EMBASE were searched. A total of 27 studies were reviewed. The system features collected represented the characteristics of each category from patient assessment to outcome evaluation. Several features were common across the reviewed systems. For the sequential decision support, all of the reviewed systems provided decision support in sequence for patient assessment and care plans. Fewer than half of the systems included problem identification. There were only three systems operating in an implementation stage and four systems in outcome evaluation. Consequently, the key steps for sequential decision support functions were initial patient assessment, problem identification, care plan, and outcome evaluation. Providing decision support in such a full scope will effectively help nurses' clinical decision making. By organizing the system features, a comprehensive picture of nursing practice-oriented computerized decision support systems was obtained; however, the development of a guideline for better systems should go beyond the scope of a literature review.

An Analysis of Categorical and Quantitative Methods for Planning Under Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Langlotz, Curtis P.; Shortliffe, Edward H.

1988-01-01

Decision theory and logical reasoning are both methods for representing and solving medical decision problems. We analyze the usefulness of these two approaches to medical therapy planning by establishing a simple correspondence between decision theory and non-monotonic logic, a formalization of categorical logical reasoning. The analysis indicates that categorical approaches to planning can be viewed as comprising two decision-theoretic concepts: probabilities (degrees of belief in planning hypotheses) and utilities (degrees of desirability of planning outcomes). We present and discuss examples of the following lessons from this decision-theoretic view of categorical (nonmonotonic) reasoning: (1) Decision theory and artificial intelligence techniques are intended to solve different components of the planning problem. (2) When considered in the context of planning under uncertainty, nonmonotonic logics do not retain the domain-independent characteristics of classical logical reasoning for planning under certainty. (3) Because certain nonmonotonic programming paradigms (e.g., frame-based inheritance, rule-based planning, protocol-based reminders) are inherently problem-specific, they may be inappropriate to employ in the solution of certain types of planning problems. We discuss how these conclusions affect several current medical informatics research issues, including the construction of “very large” medical knowledge bases.

The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice.

PubMed

Tversky, A; Kahneman, D

1981-01-30

The psychological principles that govern the perception of decision problems and the evaluation of probabilities and outcomes produce predictable shifts of preference when the same problem is framed in different ways. Reversals of preference are demonstrated in choices regarding monetary outcomes, both hypothetical and real, and in questions pertaining to the loss of human lives. The effects of frames on preferences are compared to the effects of perspectives on perceptual appearance. The dependence of preferences on the formulation of decision problems is a significant concern for the theory of rational choice.

Complexity and approximability of quantified and stochastic constraint satisfaction problems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunt, H. B.; Stearns, R. L.; Marathe, M. V.

2001-01-01

Let D be an arbitrary (not necessarily finite) nonempty set, let C be a finite set of constant symbols denoting arbitrary elements of D, and let S be an arbitrary finite set of finite-arity relations on D. We denote the problem of determining the satisfiability of finite conjunctions of relations in S applied to variables (to variables and symbols in C) by SAT(S) (by SAT{sub c}(S)). Here, we study simultaneously the complexity of and the existence of efficient approximation algorithms for a number of variants of the problems SAT(S) and SAT{sub c}(S), and for many different D, C, and S.more » These problem variants include decision and optimization problems, for formulas, quantified formulas stochastically-quantified formulas. We denote these problems by Q-SAT(S), MAX-Q-SAT(S), S-SAT(S), MAX-S-SAT(S) MAX-NSF-Q-SAT(S) and MAX-NSF-S-SAT(S). The main contribution is the development of a unified predictive theory for characterizing the the complexity of these problems. Our unified approach is based on the following basic two basic concepts: (i) strongly-local replacements/reductions and (ii) relational/algebraic representability. Let k {ge} 2. Let S be a finite set of finite-arity relations on {Sigma}{sub k} with the following condition on S: All finite arity relations on {Sigma}{sub k} can be represented as finite existentially-quantified conjunctions of relations in S applied to variables (to variables and constant symbols in C), Then we prove the following new results: (1) The problems SAT(S) and SAT{sub c}(S) are both NQL-complete and {le}{sub logn}{sup bw}-complete for NP. (2) The problems Q-SAT(S), Q-SAT{sub c}(S), are PSPACE-complete. Letting k = 2, the problem S-SAT(S) and S-SAT{sub c}(S) are PSPACE-complete. (3) {exists} {epsilon} > 0 for which approximating the problems MAX-Q-SAT(S) within {epsilon} times optimum is PSPACE-hard. Letting k =: 2, {exists} {epsilon} > 0 for which approximating the problems MAX-S-SAT(S) within {epsilon} times optimum is PSPACE-hard. (4) {forall} {epsilon} > 0 the problems MAX-NSF-Q-SAT(S) and MAX-NSF-S-SAT(S), are PSPACE-hard to approximate within a factor of n{sup {epsilon}} times optimum. These results significantly extend the earlier results by (i) Papadimitriou [Pa851] on complexity of stochastic satisfiability, (ii) Condon, Feigenbaum, Lund and Shor [CF+93, CF+94] by identifying natural classes of PSPACE-hard optimization problems with provably PSPACE-hard {epsilon}-approximation problems. Moreover, most of our results hold not just for Boolean relations: most previous results were done only in the context of Boolean domains. The results also constitute as a significant step towards obtaining a dichotomy theorems for the problems MAX-S-SAT(S) and MAX-Q-SAT(S): a research area of recent interest [CF+93, CF+94, Cr95, KSW97, LMP99].« less

Mediation: a response to aid-in-dying and the Supreme Court decision.

PubMed

Saulo, M; Wagener, R J; Rothschild, I S

1998-01-01

The recent U.S. Supreme Court decision concerning aid-in-dying has drawn attention to the complexity of end-of-life care. The authors summarize the recent Supreme Court's decision and the problems surrounding this complex issue. A case study is provided to demonstrate how mediation facilitates collaborative problem solving. Finally, the authors demonstrate how nurse leaders can apply this three-stage process and its attendant principles to facilitate ethical decision making in end-of-life care.

Moral Hypocrisy on the Basis of Construal Level: To Be a Utilitarian Personal Decision Maker or to Be a Moral Advisor?

PubMed Central

Xiao, Wei; Wu, Qing; Yang, Qun; Zhou, Liang; Jiang, Yuan; Zhang, Jiaxi; Miao, Danmin; Peng, Jiaxi

2015-01-01

Background People encounter various moral issues that involve making decisions for others by giving advice. Objective This study investigated the characteristics of providing suggestions for oneself versus providing suggestions for others in ethical decision-making and the differences between them based on Construal Level Theory (CLT). Methods A total of 768 undergraduate students from three universities in China were randomly assigned to eight groups on the basis of a grid of two Construal Levels (self or others) by two different numbers of people saved (5 people or 15 people) by two problem situations (trolley problem vs. footbridge problem). The investigation examined participants’ decisions to opt to take action or refrain from action that would have the consequence of saving more people. Results The main effects of Construal Level (F1, 752 = 6.46, p = .011), saving number (F1, 752 = 35.81, p < .001), and problem situation type (F1, 752 = 330.55, p < .001) were all significant. The interaction of the problem situation and saving number (F1, 752 = 1.01, p = .31), and social distance and saving number (F1, 752 = 0.85, p = .36), and interaction of the three independent factors (F1, 752 = 0.47, p = .49) were not significant. However, the interaction of social distance and problem situation (F1, 752 = 9.46, p = .002) was significant. Results indicated the participants utilized a component of utilitarian reasoning in the decision-making, and their behaviors appeared more utilitarian at low Construal Levels (CLs) compared to high. Conclusion CLs, saving numbers, and problem situation significantly affected moral decision-making and exhibited significant interaction. Making decisions for oneself (low-construal) rather than giving advice to others (high-construal) was one important factor that determined whether the people were utilitarian or not. Utilitarian considerations are more relevant in impersonal dilemmas. PMID:25689521

From Data to Improved Decisions: Operations Research in Healthcare Delivery.

PubMed

Capan, Muge; Khojandi, Anahita; Denton, Brian T; Williams, Kimberly D; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet; Kurt, Murat; Lobo, Jennifer Mason; Roberts, Mark S; Zaric, Greg; Zhang, Shengfan; Schwartz, J Sanford

2017-11-01

The Operations Research Interest Group (ORIG) within the Society of Medical Decision Making (SMDM) is a multidisciplinary interest group of professionals that specializes in taking an analytical approach to medical decision making and healthcare delivery. ORIG is interested in leveraging mathematical methods associated with the field of Operations Research (OR) to obtain data-driven solutions to complex healthcare problems and encourage collaborations across disciplines. This paper introduces OR for the non-expert and draws attention to opportunities where OR can be utilized to facilitate solutions to healthcare problems. Decision making is the process of choosing between possible solutions to a problem with respect to certain metrics. OR concepts can help systematically improve decision making through efficient modeling techniques while accounting for relevant constraints. Depending on the problem, methods that are part of OR (e.g., linear programming, Markov Decision Processes) or methods that are derived from related fields (e.g., regression from statistics) can be incorporated into the solution approach. This paper highlights the characteristics of different OR methods that have been applied to healthcare decision making and provides examples of emerging research opportunities. We illustrate OR applications in healthcare using previous studies, including diagnosis and treatment of diseases, organ transplants, and patient flow decisions. Further, we provide a selection of emerging areas for utilizing OR. There is a timely need to inform practitioners and policy makers of the benefits of using OR techniques in solving healthcare problems. OR methods can support the development of sustainable long-term solutions across disease management, service delivery, and health policies by optimizing the performance of system elements and analyzing their interaction while considering relevant constraints.

The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel

1981-01-01

Presents evidence that the psychological principles that govern the perception of decision problems and evaluation of probabilities and outcomes produce predictable shifts of preference when the same problem is framed in different ways. (Author/SK)

Making better decisions in groups

PubMed Central

Frith, Chris D.

2017-01-01

We review the literature to identify common problems of decision-making in individuals and groups. We are guided by a Bayesian framework to explain the interplay between past experience and new evidence, and the problem of exploring the space of hypotheses about all the possible states that the world could be in and all the possible actions that one could take. There are strong biases, hidden from awareness, that enter into these psychological processes. While biases increase the efficiency of information processing, they often do not lead to the most appropriate action. We highlight the advantages of group decision-making in overcoming biases and searching the hypothesis space for good models of the world and good solutions to problems. Diversity of group members can facilitate these achievements, but diverse groups also face their own problems. We discuss means of managing these pitfalls and make some recommendations on how to make better group decisions. PMID:28878973

A novel GIS-based approach to assess beekeeping suitability of Mediterranean lands.

PubMed

Zoccali, Paolo; Malacrinò, Antonino; Campolo, Orlando; Laudani, Francesca; Algeri, Giuseppe M; Giunti, Giulia; Strano, Cinzia P; Benelli, Giovanni; Palmeri, Vincenzo

2017-07-01

Honeybees are critically important for the environment and to the economy. However, there are in substantial decline worldwide, leading to serious threat to the stability and yield of food crops. Beekeeping is of pivotal importance, combining the wide economical aspect of honey production and the important ecological services provided by honeybees. In this scenario, the prompt identification of beekeeping areas is strategic, since it maximised productivity and lowered the risks of colony losses. Fuzzy logic is an ideal approach for problem-solving tasks, as it is specifically designed to manage problems with a high degree of uncertainty. This research tested a novel GIS-based approach to assess beekeeping suitability of lands located in Calabria (Southern Italy), without relying to Analytic Hierarchy Process - Multiple Criteria Decision Making (AHP-MCDM), thus avoiding the constraints due to the technique and decision makers' influences. Furthermore, the data used here were completely retrieved from open access sources, highlighting that our approach is characterized by low costs and can be easily reproduced for a wide arrays of geographical contexts. Notably, the results obtained by our experiments were validated by the actual beekeeping reality. Besides beekeeping, the use of this system could not only be applied in beekeeping land suitability evaluations, but may be successfully extended to other types of land suitability evaluations.

Supporting Valid Decision Making: Uses and Misuses of Assessment Data within the Context of RtI

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ball, Carrie R.; Christ, Theodore J.

2012-01-01

Within an RtI problem-solving context, assessment and decision making generally center around the tasks of problem identification, problem analysis, progress monitoring, and program evaluation. We use this framework to discuss the current state of the literature regarding curriculum based measurement, its technical properties, and its utility for…

Honor Code/Code of Conduct in International Institutions of Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alahmad, Ala'

2013-01-01

In today's society, students are faced with many ethical decisions about which they are uncertain. Unfortunately, many of these problems are rooted not only in their academic lives, but also in the workplace. These problems stem from a lack of knowledge concerning decision-making. This problem presents an actual global dilemma. Codifying ethics in…

Physician styles of decision-making for a complex condition: Type 2 diabetes with co-morbid mental illness.

PubMed

Trachtenberg, Felicia L; Pober, David M; Welch, Lisa C; McKinlay, John B

Variation in physician decisions may reflect personal styles of decision-making, as opposed to singular clinical actions and these styles may be applied differently depending on patient complexity. The objective of this study is to examine clusters of physician decision-making for type 2 diabetes, overall and in the presence of a mental health co-morbidity. This randomized balanced factorial experiment presented video vignettes of a "patient" with diagnosed, but uncontrolled type 2 diabetes. "Patients" were systematically varied by age, sex, race and co-morbidity (depression, schizophrenia with normal or bizarre affect, eczema as control). Two hundred and fifty-six primary care physicians, balanced by gender and experience level, completed a structured interview about clinical management. Cluster analysis identified 3 styles of diabetes management. "Minimalists" (n=84) performed fewer exams or tests compared to "middle of the road" physicians (n=84). "Interventionists" (n=88) suggested more medications and referrals. A second cluster analysis, without control for co-morbidities, identified an additional cluster of "information seekers" (n=15) who requested more additional information and referrals. Physicians ranking schizophrenia higher than diabetes on their problem list were more likely "minimalists" and none were "interventionists" or "information seekers". Variations in clinical management encompass multiple clinical actions and physicians subtly shift these decision-making styles depending on patient co-morbidities. Physicians' practice styles may help explain persistent differences in patient care. Training and continuing education efforts to encourage physicians to implement evidence-based clinical practice should account for general styles of decision-making and for how physicians process complicating comorbidities.

On the Spur of the Moment: Intrinsic Predictors of Impulse Sports Betting.

PubMed

Hing, Nerilee; Li, En; Vitartas, Peter; Russell, Alex M T

2018-06-01

Betting on impulse, without thoughtful consideration, research or informed decision-making, may cause financial and other harms and lead to the development of gambling problems. Impulse betting undermines responsible consumption of gambling because it reflects self-regulatory failure, impaired control, unreflective decision-making and betting more than planned. In this paper we define impulse gambling and report on a study that aimed to understand more about the intrinsic characteristics of sports bettors who have a greater tendency to bet on impulse. Specifically, the study aimed to identify behavioural, psychological and socio-demographic predictors of impulse sports betting. A sample of 1816 Australian sports bettors completed an online survey that measured the proportion of their bets placed on impulse both before and during sporting events, as well as bets that were researched and planned in advance. Impulse betting was common, accounting for nearly one-half of all past-year sports bets by respondents. Over three-quarters of respondents had placed one or more impulse bets in the last year and one in seven respondents had made all of their sports bets on impulse. More impulsive sports bettors were characterised as having higher trait impulsiveness, higher problem gambling severity, more frequent sports betting and a shorter history of sports betting. They favoured betting on in-match contingencies instead of overall match outcomes. While health promotion strategies are needed to discourage impulse betting, research into contextual factors that arouse urges to bet would also provide direction for harm minimisation measures that help consumers to resist impulsive betting decisions.

[Limitation of therapeutic effort in Paediatric Intensive Care Units: Bioethical knowledge and attitudes of the medical profession].

PubMed

Morales Valdés, Gonzalo; Alvarado Romero, Tatiana; Zuleta Castro, Rodrigo

2016-01-01

Paediatric intensive care is a relatively new specialty, with significant technological advances that lead to the prolongation of the dying process. One of the most common bioethical problems is limitation of treatment, which is the adequacy and/or proportionality treatment, trying to avoid obstinacy and futility. To determine the experience of physicians working in Paediatric Intensive Care Units (PICU) when faced with bioethical decisions. An observational, descriptive and cross-sectional study was conducted using an anonymous questionnaire sent to physicians working in PICU. The data requested was related to potential ethical problems generated in the care of the critical child, and the procedure for their resolution. The study was approved by the Ethics Research Committee of the Faculty of Medicine UDD CAS. A total of 126 completed questionnaires were received from physicians working in 34 PICU in Chile. Almost all (98.41%) of them acknowledged having taken therapeutic limitation decisions (TLD). The most common type of TLD mentioned was the Do Not Resuscitate order (n=119), followed by the establishment of no medications (n=113), limited admission to PICU (n=81), with the withdrawal of treatment being the least mentioned (n=81). Around one-third (34.13%) felt that there were no ethical difference between introducing or removing certain treatments. Bioethical dilemmas are common in the PICU, with therapeutic limitation decisions being frequent. Many recognise not having expertise in clinical ethics, and they need continuing education in bioethics. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Chilena de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The Case for Absolute Ligand Discrimination: Modeling Information Processing and Decision by Immune T Cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

François, Paul; Altan-Bonnet, Grégoire

2016-03-01

Some cells have to take decision based on the quality of surroundings ligands, almost irrespective of their quantity, a problem we name "absolute discrimination". An example of absolute discrimination is recognition of not-self by immune T Cells. We show how the problem of absolute discrimination can be solved by a process called "adaptive sorting". We review several implementations of adaptive sorting, as well as its generic properties such as antagonism. We show how kinetic proofreading with negative feedback implement an approximate version of adaptive sorting in the immune context. Finally, we revisit the decision problem at the cell population level, showing how phenotypic variability and feedbacks between population and single cells are crucial for proper decision.

Smart strategies for doctors and doctors-in-training: heuristics in medicine.

PubMed

Wegwarth, Odette; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2009-08-01

How do doctors make sound decisions when confronted with probabilistic data, time pressures and a heavy workload? One theory that has been embraced by many researchers is based on optimisation, which emphasises the need to integrate all information in order to arrive at sound decisions. This notion makes heuristics, which use less than complete information, appear as second-best strategies. In this article, we challenge this pessimistic view of heuristics. We introduce two medical problems that involve decision making to the reader: one concerns coronary care issues and the other macrolide prescriptions. In both settings, decision-making tools grounded in the principles of optimisation and heuristics, respectively, have been developed to assist doctors in making decisions. We explain the structure of each of these tools and compare their performance in terms of their facilitation of correct predictions. For decisions concerning both the coronary care unit and the prescribing of macrolides, we demonstrate that sacrificing information does not necessarily imply a forfeiting of predictive accuracy, but can sometimes even lead to better decisions. Subsequently, we discuss common misconceptions about heuristics and explain when and why ignoring parts of the available information can lead to the making of more robust predictions. Heuristics are neither good nor bad per se, but, if applied in situations to which they have been adapted, can be helpful companions for doctors and doctors-in-training. This, however, requires that heuristics in medicine be openly discussed, criticised, refined and then taught to doctors-in-training rather than being simply dismissed as harmful or irrelevant. A more uniform use of explicit and accepted heuristics has the potential to reduce variations in diagnoses and to improve medical care for patients.

Incentive Control Strategies for Decision Problems with Parametric Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cansever, Derya H.

The central theme of this thesis is the design of incentive control policies in large scale systems with hierarchical decision structures, under the stipulation that the objective functionals of the agents at the lower level of the hierarchy are uncertain to the top-level controller (the leader). These uncertainties are modeled as a finite -dimensional parameter vector whose exact value constitutes private information to the relevant agent at the lower level. The approach we have adopted is to design incentive policies for the leader such that the dependence of the decision of the agents on the uncertain parameter is minimized. We have identified several classes of problems for which this approach is feasible. In particular, we have constructed policies whose performance is arbitrarily close to the solution of a version of the same problem that does not involve uncertainties. We have also shown that for a certain class of problem wherein the leader observes a linear combination of the agents' decisions, the leader can achieve the performance he would obtain if he had observed each decision separately.

Decision analysis framing study; in-valley drainage management strategies for the western San Joaquin Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Presser, Theresa S.; Jenni, Karen E.; Nieman, Timothy; Coleman, James

2010-01-01

Constraints on drainage management in the western San Joaquin Valley and implications of proposed approaches to management were recently evaluated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS found that a significant amount of data for relevant technical issues was available and that a structured, analytical decision support tool could help optimize combinations of specific in-valley drainage management strategies, address uncertainties, and document underlying data analysis for future use. To follow-up on USGS's technical analysis and to help define a scientific basis for decisionmaking in implementing in-valley drainage management strategies, this report describes the first step (that is, a framing study) in a Decision Analysis process. In general, a Decision Analysis process includes four steps: (1) problem framing to establish the scope of the decision problem(s) and a set of fundamental objectives to evaluate potential solutions, (2) generation of strategies to address identified decision problem(s), (3) identification of uncertainties and their relationships, and (4) construction of a decision support model. Participation in such a systematic approach can help to promote consensus and to build a record of qualified supporting data for planning and implementation. In December 2008, a Decision Analysis framing study was initiated with a series of meetings designed to obtain preliminary input from key stakeholder groups on the scope of decisions relevant to drainage management that were of interest to them, and on the fundamental objectives each group considered relevant to those decisions. Two key findings of this framing study are: (1) participating stakeholders have many drainage management objectives in common; and (2) understanding the links between drainage management and water management is necessary both for sound science-based decisionmaking and for resolving stakeholder differences about the value of proposed drainage management solutions. Citing ongoing legal processes associated with drainage management in the western San Joaquin Valley, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) withdrew from the Decision Analysis process early in the proceedings. Without the involvement of the USBR, the USGS discontinued further development of this study.

Cooperative Solutions in Multi-Person Quadratic Decision Problems: Finite-Horizon and State-Feedback Cost-Cumulant Control Paradigm

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

CONTRACT NUMBER Problems: Finite -Horizon and State-Feedback Cost-Cumulant Control Paradigm (PREPRINT) 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER...cooperative cost-cumulant control regime for the class of multi-person single-objective decision problems characterized by quadratic random costs and... finite -horizon integral quadratic cost associated with a linear stochastic system . Since this problem formation is parameterized by the number of cost

Fluid mechanics based classification of the respiratory efficiency of several nasal cavities.

PubMed

Lintermann, Andreas; Meinke, Matthias; Schröder, Wolfgang

2013-11-01

The flow in the human nasal cavity is of great importance to understand rhinologic pathologies like impaired respiration or heating capabilities, a diminished sense of taste and smell, and the presence of dry mucous membranes. To numerically analyze this flow problem a highly efficient and scalable Thermal Lattice-BGK (TLBGK) solver is used, which is very well suited for flows in intricate geometries. The generation of the computational mesh is completely automatic and highly parallelized such that it can be executed efficiently on High Performance Computers (HPCs). An evaluation of the functionality of nasal cavities is based on an analysis of pressure drop, secondary flow structures, wall-shear stress distributions, and temperature variations from the nostrils to the pharynx. The results of the flow fields of three completely different nasal cavities allow their classification into ability groups and support the a priori decision process on surgical interventions. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Community Work and Local Authority Decision Making: Potential and Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Corina, Lewis

1976-01-01

British local authority and decision making procedures are described for community developers. Included are potential ways of influencing the authority system, and problems and areas of weakness that may be encountered in dealing with the system. (ABM)

Shared Problem Models and Crew Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of crew decision making to aviation safety has been well established through NTSB accident analyses: Crew judgment and decision making have been cited as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents in commercial air transport, general aviation, and military aviation. Yet the bulk of research on decision making has not proven helpful in improving the quality of decisions in the cockpit. One reason is that traditional analytic decision models are inappropriate to the dynamic complex nature of cockpit decision making and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions. A new model of dynamic naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove more useful for training or aiding cockpit decision making. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulation and National Transportation Safety Board accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation and reflect the crew's metacognitive skill. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relation between communication that serves to build performance. Implications of these findings for crew training will be discussed.

Mental model mapping as a new tool to analyse the use of information in decision-making in integrated water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolkman, M. J.; Kok, M.; van der Veen, A.

The solution of complex, unstructured problems is faced with policy controversy and dispute, unused and misused knowledge, project delay and failure, and decline of public trust in governmental decisions. Mental model mapping (also called concept mapping) is a technique to analyse these difficulties on a fundamental cognitive level, which can reveal experiences, perceptions, assumptions, knowledge and subjective beliefs of stakeholders, experts and other actors, and can stimulate communication and learning. This article presents the theoretical framework from which the use of mental model mapping techniques to analyse this type of problems emerges as a promising technique. The framework consists of the problem solving or policy design cycle, the knowledge production or modelling cycle, and the (computer) model as interface between the cycles. Literature attributes difficulties in the decision-making process to communication gaps between decision makers, stakeholders and scientists, and to the construction of knowledge within different paradigm groups that leads to different interpretation of the problem situation. Analysis of the decision-making process literature indicates that choices, which are made in all steps of the problem solving cycle, are based on an individual decision maker’s frame of perception. This frame, in turn, depends on the mental model residing in the mind of the individual. Thus we identify three levels of awareness on which the decision process can be analysed. This research focuses on the third level. Mental models can be elicited using mapping techniques. In this way, analysing an individual’s mental model can shed light on decision-making problems. The steps of the knowledge production cycle are, in the same manner, ultimately driven by the mental models of the scientist in a specific discipline. Remnants of this mental model can be found in the resulting computer model. The characteristics of unstructured problems (complexity, uncertainty and disagreement) can be positioned in the framework, as can the communities of knowledge construction and valuation involved in the solution of these problems (core science, applied science, and professional consultancy, and “post-normal” science). Mental model maps, this research hypothesises, are suitable to analyse the above aspects of the problem. This hypothesis is tested for the case of the Zwolle storm surch barrier. Analysis can aid integration between disciplines, participation of public stakeholders, and can stimulate learning processes. Mental model mapping is recommended to visualise the use of knowledge, to analyse difficulties in problem solving process, and to aid information transfer and communication. Mental model mapping help scientists to shape their new, post-normal responsibilities in a manner that complies with integrity when dealing with unstructured problems in complex, multifunctional systems.

Buried Versus Exposed Kirschner Wires Following Fixation of Hand Fractures: l Clinician and Patient Surveys.

PubMed

2018-04-01

Fractures of the metacarpals and phalanges are common. Placement of Kirschner wires (K-wires) is the most common form of surgical fixation. After placement, a key decision is whether to bury the end of a K-wire or leave it protruding from the skin (exposed). A recent systematic review found no evidence to support either approach. The aim of study was to investigate current clinical practice, understand the key factors influencing clinician decision-making, and explore patient preferences to inform the design of a randomized clinical trial. The steering group developed surveys for hand surgeons, hand therapists, and patients. Following piloting, they were distributed across the United Kingdom hand surgery units using the Reconstructive Surgery Trials Network. A total of 423 hand surgeons, 187 hand therapists, and 187 patients completed the surveys. Plastic surgeons and junior surgical trainees preferred to leave K-wires not buried. Ease of removal correlated with a decision to leave wires exposed, whereas perceived risk of infection correlated with burying wires. Cost did not affect the decision. Hand therapists were primarily concerned about infection and patient-related outcomes. Patients were most concerned about wire-related problems and pain. This national survey provides a new understanding of the use of K-wires to manage hand fractures in the United Kingdom. A number of nonevidence-based factors seem to influence the decision to bury or leave K-wires exposed. The choice has important clinical and health economic implications that justify a randomized controlled trial.

NURSE-LED INTERVENTION TO IMPROVE SURROGATE DECISION MAKING FOR PATIENTS WITH ADVANCED CRITICAL ILLNESS

PubMed Central

White, Douglas B.; Cua, Sarah Martin; Walk, Roberta; Pollice, Laura; Weissfeld, Lisa; Hong, Seoyeon; Landefeld, C. Seth; Arnold, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Background Problems persist with surrogate decision making in intensive care units, leading to distress for surrogates and treatment that may not reflect patients’ values. Objectives To assess the feasibility, acceptability, and perceived effectiveness of a multifaceted, nurse-led intervention to improve surrogate decision making in intensive care units. Study Design A single-center, single-arm, interventional study in which 35 surrogates and 15 physicians received the Four Supports Intervention, which involved incorporating a family support specialist into the intensive care team. That specialist maintained a longitudinal relationship with surrogates and provided emotional support, communication support, decision support, and anticipatory grief support. A mixed-methods approach was used to evaluate the intervention. Results The intervention was implemented successfully in all 15 patients, with a high level of completion of each component of the intervention. The family support specialist devoted a mean of 48 (SD 36) minutes per day to each clinician-patient-family triad. All participants reported that they would recommend the intervention to others. At least 90% of physicians and surrogates reported that the intervention (1) improved the quality and timeliness of communication, (2) facilitated discussion of the patient’s values and treatment preferences, and (3) improved the patient-centeredness of care. Conclusions The Four Supports Intervention is feasible, acceptable, and was perceived by physicians and surrogates to improve the quality of decision making and the patient-centeredness of care. A randomized trial is warranted to determine whether the intervention improves patient, family, and health system outcomes. PMID:23117903

Model-Based Design of Tree WSNs for Decentralized Detection †

PubMed Central

Tantawy, Ashraf; Koutsoukos, Xenofon; Biswas, Gautam

2015-01-01

The classical decentralized detection problem of finding the optimal decision rules at the sensor and fusion center, as well as variants that introduce physical channel impairments have been studied extensively in the literature. The deployment of WSNs in decentralized detection applications brings new challenges to the field. Protocols for different communication layers have to be co-designed to optimize the detection performance. In this paper, we consider the communication network design problem for a tree WSN. We pursue a system-level approach where a complete model for the system is developed that captures the interactions between different layers, as well as different sensor quality measures. For network optimization, we propose a hierarchical optimization algorithm that lends itself to the tree structure, requiring only local network information. The proposed design approach shows superior performance over several contentionless and contention-based network design approaches. PMID:26307989

Problems with German Science Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riess, Falk

The main problems of science (especially physics) teaching in Germany are students'' lack of interest and motivation in the subject, their poor understanding of scientific concepts, ideas, methods,and results, and their lack of comprehension of the social, political, and epistemological role of science. These circumstances result in a growing `scientific illiteracy'' of the population and adecline in democratic quality concerning decision making processes about scientific and technological projects. One means of improving this situation lies in the use of history and philosophy of science in science teaching. School science curricula and textbooks neglect almost completely the importance of history and philosophy of science. In this paper, the main empirical results concerning motivation and knowledge are given. Some examples from science curricula and textbooks are presented, and some of the few reform projects in Germany are listed. As a consequence a compensatory program is proposed in order to create the prerequisites for raising science education in Germany to an international standard.

The Department of Energy`s Remedial Action Assessment System (RAAS): Decision support tools for performing streamlined feasibility studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, M.K.

1994-06-01

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) faces the major task of cleaning up hundreds of waste sites across the nation, which will require completion of a large number of remedial investigation/feasibility studies (RI/FSs). The intent of each RI/FS is to characterize the waste problems and environmental conditions at the operable unit level, segment the remediation problem into manageable medium-specific and contaminant-specific pieces, define corresponding remediation objectives, and identify remedial response actions to satisfy those objectives. The RI/FS team can then identify combinations of remediation technologies that will meet the remediation objectives. Finally, the team must evaluate these remedial alternativesmore » in terms of effectiveness, implementability, cost, and acceptability. The Remedial Action Assessment System (RAAS) is being developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) to support DOE in this effort.« less

Noise, cost and speed-accuracy trade-offs: decision-making in a decentralized system

PubMed Central

Marshall, James A.R.; Dornhaus, Anna; Franks, Nigel R.; Kovacs, Tim

2005-01-01

Many natural and artificial decision-making systems face decision problems where there is an inherent compromise between two or more objectives. One such common compromise is between the speed and accuracy of a decision. The ability to exploit the characteristics of a decision problem in order to vary between the extremes of making maximally rapid, or maximally accurate decisions, is a useful property of such systems. Colonies of the ant Temnothorax albipennis (formerly Leptothorax albipennis) are a paradigmatic decentralized decision-making system, and have been shown flexibly to compromise accuracy for speed when making decisions during house-hunting. During emigration, a colony must typically evaluate and choose between several possible alternative new nest sites of differing quality. In this paper, we examine this speed-accuracy trade-off through modelling, and conclude that noise and time-cost of assessing alternative choices are likely to be significant for T. albipennis. Noise and cost of such assessments are likely to mean that T. albipennis' decision-making mechanism is Pareto-optimal in one crucial regard; increasing the willingness of individuals to change their decisions cannot improve collective accuracy overall without impairing speed. We propose that a decentralized control algorithm based on this emigration behaviour may be derived for applications in engineering domains and specify the characteristics of the problems to which it should be suited, based on our new results. PMID:16849234

Non-completion and informed consent.

PubMed

Wertheimer, Alan

2014-02-01

There is a good deal of biomedical research that does not produce scientifically useful data because it fails to recruit a sufficient number of subjects. This fact is typically not disclosed to prospective subjects. In general, the guidance about consent concerns the information required to make intelligent self-interested decisions and ignores some of the information required for intelligent altruistic decisions. Bioethics has worried about the 'therapeutic misconception', but has ignored the 'completion misconception'. This article argues that, other things being equal, prospective subjects should be informed about the possibility of non-completion as part of the standard consent process if (1) it is or should be anticipatable that there is a non-trivial possibility of non-completion and (2) that information is likely to be relevant to a prospective subject's decision to consent. The article then considers several objections to the argument, including the objection that disclosing non-completion information would make recruitment even more difficult.

GIS, modeling, and politics: on the tensions of collaborative decision support.

PubMed

Ramsey, Kevin

2009-05-01

A tension exists at the heart of efforts to support collaboration with GIS. Many scholars and practitioners seek to support two separate objectives: (1) problem solving and (2) the exploration of diverse problem understandings. GIS applications designed for problem solving often pre-define the problem space by structuring the kind of information that can be considered or the way in which the problem is conceptualized. In doing so, they necessarily privilege particular perspectives and understandings of the problem while marginalizing others. As a result, these initiatives undermine their second objective. This is problematic in the context of contentious environmental decisions which have broad-reaching impacts on people with diverse perspectives and interests. In such contexts, I argue that equitable collaboration is impossible without first emphasizing the exploration of diverse problem understandings. I support this argument theoretically by turning to the literatures on collaborative planning and spatial decision support, and empirically in my analysis of a case study of an effort to construct a GIS for supporting collaborative water resource management in rural Idaho. Reflecting upon the case, I provide a set of recommendations to those seeking to better negotiate the tensions of supporting collaboration with GIS in the context of contentious environmental and natural resource decisions.

Vulnerability assessment of urban ecosystems driven by water resources, human health and atmospheric environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Zhang, Yang; Song, Xinshuang; He, Li

2016-05-01

As ecosystem management is a hotspot and urgent topic with increasing population growth and resource depletion. This paper develops an urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment method representing a new vulnerability paradigm for decision makers and environmental managers, as it's an early warning system to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes in terms of natural, human, economic and social elements. The whole idea is to decompose a complex problem into sub-problem, and analyze each sub-problem, and then aggregate all sub-problems to solve this problem. This method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators, and socio-economic elements. Decision makers can find out relevant urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitude. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a case study area in Beijing, China, where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the Beijing City Master Plan. The results of urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment can support decision makers in evaluating the necessary of taking specific measures to preserve the quality of human health and environmental stressors for a city or multiple cities, with identifying the implications and consequences of their decisions.

Information giving and involvement in treatment decisions: is more really better? Psychological effects and relation with adherence.

PubMed

Wroe, Abigail L; Salkovskis, Paul M; Rees, Margaret; Jack, Tim

2013-01-01

The aim of this study is to improve our understanding of the ways in which a medical consultation style relates to satisfaction and adherence. Participants completed questionnaires about preferred and perceived consultation styles; psychological variables such as satisfaction, anxiety and depression; and questions about taking medication. Questionnaires were completed prior to the consultation, immediately after, three months later and one year later. Doctors also completed a scale on completion of the consultation. The decisions in question related to women seeking advice about Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) and decisions about pain management. Patients expressed preferences for information about the treatment options and for active involvement in the decision process. The extent to which patients perceived themselves as having received information about the treatment options was a particularly consistent predictor of satisfaction. The extent to which patients perceived themselves as having been prepared for the side effects of HRT was a consistent predictor of anxiety. Perceptions of the amount of information received about medical options, including information preparing individuals for potential side effects of medication, appears to be more important to satisfaction and anxiety, than actual involvement in the decision.

How Decision Support Systems Can Benefit from a Theory of Change Approach.

PubMed

Allen, Will; Cruz, Jennyffer; Warburton, Bruce

2017-06-01

Decision support systems are now mostly computer and internet-based information systems designed to support land managers with complex decision-making. However, there is concern that many environmental and agricultural decision support systems remain underutilized and ineffective. Recent efforts to improve decision support systems use have focused on enhancing stakeholder participation in their development, but a mismatch between stakeholders' expectations and the reality of decision support systems outputs continues to limit uptake. Additional challenges remain in problem-framing and evaluation. We propose using an outcomes-based approach called theory of change in conjunction with decision support systems development to support both wider problem-framing and outcomes-based monitoring and evaluation. The theory of change helps framing by placing the decision support systems within a wider context. It highlights how decision support systems use can "contribute" to long-term outcomes, and helps align decision support systems outputs with these larger goals. We illustrate the benefits of linking decision support systems development and application with a theory of change approach using an example of pest rabbit management in Australia. We develop a theory of change that outlines the activities required to achieve the outcomes desired from an effective rabbit management program, and two decision support systems that contribute to specific aspects of decision making in this wider problem context. Using a theory of change in this way should increase acceptance of the role of decision support systems by end-users, clarify their limitations and, importantly, increase effectiveness of rabbit management. The use of a theory of change should benefit those seeking to improve decision support systems design, use and, evaluation.

How Decision Support Systems Can Benefit from a Theory of Change Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Will; Cruz, Jennyffer; Warburton, Bruce

2017-06-01

Decision support systems are now mostly computer and internet-based information systems designed to support land managers with complex decision-making. However, there is concern that many environmental and agricultural decision support systems remain underutilized and ineffective. Recent efforts to improve decision support systems use have focused on enhancing stakeholder participation in their development, but a mismatch between stakeholders' expectations and the reality of decision support systems outputs continues to limit uptake. Additional challenges remain in problem-framing and evaluation. We propose using an outcomes-based approach called theory of change in conjunction with decision support systems development to support both wider problem-framing and outcomes-based monitoring and evaluation. The theory of change helps framing by placing the decision support systems within a wider context. It highlights how decision support systems use can "contribute" to long-term outcomes, and helps align decision support systems outputs with these larger goals. We illustrate the benefits of linking decision support systems development and application with a theory of change approach using an example of pest rabbit management in Australia. We develop a theory of change that outlines the activities required to achieve the outcomes desired from an effective rabbit management program, and two decision support systems that contribute to specific aspects of decision making in this wider problem context. Using a theory of change in this way should increase acceptance of the role of decision support systems by end-users, clarify their limitations and, importantly, increase effectiveness of rabbit management. The use of a theory of change should benefit those seeking to improve decision support systems design, use and, evaluation.

Bayesian design of decision rules for failure detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chow, E. Y.; Willsky, A. S.

1984-01-01

The formulation of the decision making process of a failure detection algorithm as a Bayes sequential decision problem provides a simple conceptualization of the decision rule design problem. As the optimal Bayes rule is not computable, a methodology that is based on the Bayesian approach and aimed at a reduced computational requirement is developed for designing suboptimal rules. A numerical algorithm is constructed to facilitate the design and performance evaluation of these suboptimal rules. The result of applying this design methodology to an example shows that this approach is potentially a useful one.

Decision Making in Adults with ADHD

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montyla, Timo; Still, Johanna; Gullberg, Stina; Del Missier, Fabio

2012-01-01

Objectives: This study examined decision-making competence in ADHD by using multiple decision tasks with varying demands on analytic versus affective processes. Methods: Adults with ADHD and healthy controls completed two tasks of analytic decision making, as measured by the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) battery, and two affective…

An interactive approach based on a discrete differential evolution algorithm for a class of integer bilevel programming problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hong; Zhang, Li; Jiao, Yong-Chang

2016-07-01

This paper presents an interactive approach based on a discrete differential evolution algorithm to solve a class of integer bilevel programming problems, in which integer decision variables are controlled by an upper-level decision maker and real-value or continuous decision variables are controlled by a lower-level decision maker. Using the Karush--Kuhn-Tucker optimality conditions in the lower-level programming, the original discrete bilevel formulation can be converted into a discrete single-level nonlinear programming problem with the complementarity constraints, and then the smoothing technique is applied to deal with the complementarity constraints. Finally, a discrete single-level nonlinear programming problem is obtained, and solved by an interactive approach. In each iteration, for each given upper-level discrete variable, a system of nonlinear equations including the lower-level variables and Lagrange multipliers is solved first, and then a discrete nonlinear programming problem only with inequality constraints is handled by using a discrete differential evolution algorithm. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Field trials of medical decision-aids: potential problems and solutions.

PubMed Central

Wyatt, J.; Spiegelhalter, D.

1991-01-01

Only clinical trials can assess the impact of prototype medical decision-aids, but they are seldom performed before dissemination. Many problems are encountered when designing such studies, including ensuring generality, deciding what to measure, feasible study designs, correcting for biases caused by the trial itself and by the decision-aid, resolving the "Evaluation Paradox", and potential legal and ethical doubts. These are discussed in this paper. PMID:1807610

Knowledge Requirements and Management in Expert Decision Support Systems for (Military) Situation Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-08-01

constitutes a fundamental problem in many decision making processes. In business management we face this problem when determining the status of an...Tehiical Report 576 ( 1 ) 4 KNOWLEDGE REQUIREMENTS AND MANAGEMENT IN EXPERT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR (MILITARY) SITUATION ASSESSMENT MOOM sen...accomplished under contract for the Department of the Army The Israel Institute of Business Research Technical review by Robert H. Sasmor Joseph M

Decision theory, reinforcement learning, and the brain.

PubMed

Dayan, Peter; Daw, Nathaniel D

2008-12-01

Decision making is a core competence for animals and humans acting and surviving in environments they only partially comprehend, gaining rewards and punishments for their troubles. Decision-theoretic concepts permeate experiments and computational models in ethology, psychology, and neuroscience. Here, we review a well-known, coherent Bayesian approach to decision making, showing how it unifies issues in Markovian decision problems, signal detection psychophysics, sequential sampling, and optimal exploration and discuss paradigmatic psychological and neural examples of each problem. We discuss computational issues concerning what subjects know about their task and how ambitious they are in seeking optimal solutions; we address algorithmic topics concerning model-based and model-free methods for making choices; and we highlight key aspects of the neural implementation of decision making.

Stress-induced cortisol facilitates threat-related decision making among police officers.

PubMed

Akinola, Modupe; Mendes, Wendy Berry

2012-02-01

Previous research suggests that cortisol can affect cognitive functions such as memory, decision making, and attentiveness to threat-related cues. Here, we examine whether increases in cortisol, brought on by an acute social stressor, influence threat-related decision making. Eighty-one police officers completed a standardized laboratory stressor and then immediately completed a computer simulated decision-making task designed to examine decisions to accurately shoot or not shoot armed and unarmed Black and White targets. Results indicated that police officers who had larger cortisol increases to the social-stress task subsequently made fewer errors when deciding to shoot armed Black targets relative to armed White targets, suggesting that hypothalamic pituitary adrenal (HPA) activation may exacerbate vigilance for threat cues. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of threat-initiated decision making.

Documenting the decision structure in software development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wild, J. Christian; Maly, Kurt; Shen, Stewart N.

1990-01-01

Current software development paradigms focus on the products of the development process. Much of the decision making process which produces these products is outside the scope of these paradigms. The Decision-Based Software Development (DBSD) paradigm views the design process as a series of interrelated decisions which involve the identification and articulation of problems, alternates, solutions and justifications. Decisions made by programmers and analysts are recorded in a project data base. Unresolved problems are also recorded and resources for their resolution are allocated by management according to the overall development strategy. This decision structure is linked to the products affected by the relevant decision and provides a process oriented view of the resulted system. Software maintenance uses this decision view of the system to understand the rationale behind the decisions affecting the part of the system to be modified. D-HyperCase, a prototype Decision-Based Hypermedia System is described and results of applying the DBSD approach during its development are presented.

Minimization In Digital Design As A Meta-Planning Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, William P. C.; Wu, Jung-Gen

1987-05-01

In our model-based expert system for automatic digital system design, we formalize the design process into three sub-processes - compiling high-level behavioral specifications into primitive behavioral operations, grouping primitive operations into behavioral functions, and grouping functions into modules. Consideration of design minimization explicitly controls decision-making in the last two subprocesses. Design minimization, a key task in the automatic design of digital systems, is complicated by the high degree of interaction among the time sequence and content of design decisions. In this paper, we present an AI approach which directly addresses these interactions and their consequences by modeling the minimization prob-lem as a planning problem, and the management of design decision-making as a meta-planning problem.

A multi-objective decision-making approach to the journal submission problem.

PubMed

Wong, Tony E; Srikrishnan, Vivek; Hadka, David; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

When researchers complete a manuscript, they need to choose a journal to which they will submit the study. This decision requires to navigate trade-offs between multiple objectives. One objective is to share the new knowledge as widely as possible. Citation counts can serve as a proxy to quantify this objective. A second objective is to minimize the time commitment put into sharing the research, which may be estimated by the total time from initial submission to final decision. A third objective is to minimize the number of rejections and resubmissions. Thus, researchers often consider the trade-offs between the objectives of (i) maximizing citations, (ii) minimizing time-to-decision, and (iii) minimizing the number of resubmissions. To complicate matters further, this is a decision with multiple, potentially conflicting, decision-maker rationalities. Co-authors might have different preferences, for example about publishing fast versus maximizing citations. These diverging preferences can lead to conflicting trade-offs between objectives. Here, we apply a multi-objective decision analytical framework to identify the Pareto-front between these objectives and determine the set of journal submission pathways that balance these objectives for three stages of a researcher's career. We find multiple strategies that researchers might pursue, depending on how they value minimizing risk and effort relative to maximizing citations. The sequences that maximize expected citations within each strategy are generally similar, regardless of time horizon. We find that the "conditional impact factor"-impact factor times acceptance rate-is a suitable heuristic method for ranking journals, to strike a balance between minimizing effort objectives and maximizing citation count. Finally, we examine potential co-author tension resulting from differing rationalities by mapping out each researcher's preferred Pareto front and identifying compromise submission strategies. The explicit representation of trade-offs, especially when multiple decision-makers (co-authors) have different preferences, facilitates negotiations and can support the decision process.

A multi-objective decision-making approach to the journal submission problem

PubMed Central

Hadka, David; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

When researchers complete a manuscript, they need to choose a journal to which they will submit the study. This decision requires to navigate trade-offs between multiple objectives. One objective is to share the new knowledge as widely as possible. Citation counts can serve as a proxy to quantify this objective. A second objective is to minimize the time commitment put into sharing the research, which may be estimated by the total time from initial submission to final decision. A third objective is to minimize the number of rejections and resubmissions. Thus, researchers often consider the trade-offs between the objectives of (i) maximizing citations, (ii) minimizing time-to-decision, and (iii) minimizing the number of resubmissions. To complicate matters further, this is a decision with multiple, potentially conflicting, decision-maker rationalities. Co-authors might have different preferences, for example about publishing fast versus maximizing citations. These diverging preferences can lead to conflicting trade-offs between objectives. Here, we apply a multi-objective decision analytical framework to identify the Pareto-front between these objectives and determine the set of journal submission pathways that balance these objectives for three stages of a researcher’s career. We find multiple strategies that researchers might pursue, depending on how they value minimizing risk and effort relative to maximizing citations. The sequences that maximize expected citations within each strategy are generally similar, regardless of time horizon. We find that the “conditional impact factor”—impact factor times acceptance rate—is a suitable heuristic method for ranking journals, to strike a balance between minimizing effort objectives and maximizing citation count. Finally, we examine potential co-author tension resulting from differing rationalities by mapping out each researcher’s preferred Pareto front and identifying compromise submission strategies. The explicit representation of trade-offs, especially when multiple decision-makers (co-authors) have different preferences, facilitates negotiations and can support the decision process. PMID:28582430

Fuzzy compromise: An effective way to solve hierarchical design problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, J. K.; Krishnamachari, R. S.; Masetta, J.; Pearce, D.; Rigby, D.; Mistree, F.

1990-01-01

In this paper, we present a method for modeling design problems using a compromise decision support problem (DSP) incorporating the principles embodied in fuzzy set theory. Specifically, the fuzzy compromise decision support problem is used to study hierarchical design problems. This approach has the advantage that although the system modeled has an element of uncertainty associated with it, the solution obtained is crisp and precise. The efficacy of incorporating fuzzy sets into the solution process is discussed in the context of results obtained for a portal frame.

Towards a conceptual multi-agent-based framework to simulate the spatial group decision-making process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghavami, Seyed Morsal; Taleai, Mohammad

2017-04-01

Most spatial problems are multi-actor, multi-issue and multi-phase in nature. In addition to their intrinsic complexity, spatial problems usually involve groups of actors from different organizational and cognitive backgrounds, all of whom participate in a social structure to resolve or reduce the complexity of a given problem. Hence, it is important to study and evaluate what different aspects influence the spatial problem resolution process. Recently, multi-agent systems consisting of groups of separate agent entities all interacting with each other have been put forward as appropriate tools to use to study and resolve such problems. In this study, then in order to generate a better level of understanding regarding the spatial problem group decision-making process, a conceptual multi-agent-based framework is used that represents and specifies all the necessary concepts and entities needed to aid group decision making, based on a simulation of the group decision-making process as well as the relationships that exist among the different concepts involved. The study uses five main influencing entities as concepts in the simulation process: spatial influence, individual-level influence, group-level influence, negotiation influence and group performance measures. Further, it explains the relationship among different concepts in a descriptive rather than explanatory manner. To illustrate the proposed framework, the approval process for an urban land use master plan in Zanjan—a provincial capital in Iran—is simulated using MAS, the results highlighting the effectiveness of applying an MAS-based framework when wishing to study the group decision-making process used to resolve spatial problems.

One Way of Thinking About Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dalis, Gus T.; Strasser, Ben B.

The authors present the DALSTRA model of decision making, a descriptive statement of ways individuals or groups respond to different kinds of decision-making problems they encounter. Decision making is viewed in two phases: the decision-making antecedents (whether to decide, how to decide) and the modes of decision making (Chance/Impulse,…

Advances in the Application of Decision Theory to Test-Based Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Linden, Wim J.

This paper reviews recent research in the Netherlands on the application of decision theory to test-based decision making about personnel selection and student placement. The review is based on an earlier model proposed for the classification of decision problems, and emphasizes an empirical Bayesian framework. Classification decisions with…

Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making

PubMed Central

Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

2016-01-01

People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people’s decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others’ authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions. PMID:26784448

Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making.

PubMed

Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

2016-01-01

People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.

An improved robust buffer allocation method for the project scheduling problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghoddousi, Parviz; Ansari, Ramin; Makui, Ahmad

2017-04-01

Unpredictable uncertainties cause delays and additional costs for projects. Often, when using traditional approaches, the optimizing procedure of the baseline project plan fails and leads to delays. In this study, a two-stage multi-objective buffer allocation approach is applied for robust project scheduling. In the first stage, some decisions are made on buffer sizes and allocation to the project activities. A set of Pareto-optimal robust schedules is designed using the meta-heuristic non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) based on the decisions made in the buffer allocation step. In the second stage, the Pareto solutions are evaluated in terms of the deviation from the initial start time and due dates. The proposed approach was implemented on a real dam construction project. The outcomes indicated that the obtained buffered schedule reduces the cost of disruptions by 17.7% compared with the baseline plan, with an increase of about 0.3% in the project completion time.

Evaluation of an Agricultural Meteorological Disaster Based on Multiple Criterion Decision Making and Evolutionary Algorithm

PubMed Central

Yu, Xiaobing; Yu, Xianrui; Lu, Yiqun

2018-01-01

The evaluation of a meteorological disaster can be regarded as a multiple-criteria decision making problem because it involves many indexes. Firstly, a comprehensive indexing system for an agricultural meteorological disaster is proposed, which includes the disaster rate, the inundated rate, and the complete loss rate. Following this, the relative weights of the three criteria are acquired using a novel proposed evolutionary algorithm. The proposed algorithm consists of a differential evolution algorithm and an evolution strategy. Finally, a novel evaluation model, based on the proposed algorithm and the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), is presented to estimate the agricultural meteorological disaster of 2008 in China. The geographic information system (GIS) technique is employed to depict the disaster. The experimental results demonstrated that the agricultural meteorological disaster of 2008 was very serious, especially in Hunan and Hubei provinces. Some useful suggestions are provided to relieve agriculture meteorological disasters. PMID:29597243

The iPad: tablet technology to support nursing and midwifery student learning: an evaluation in practice.

PubMed

Brown, Janie; McCrorie, Pamela

2015-03-01

This research explored the impact of tablet technology, in the form of Apple iPads, on undergraduate nursing and midwifery students' learning outcomes. In simulated clinical learning environments, first-year nursing students (n = 30) accessed apps and reference materials on iPads. Third-year nursing students (n = 88) referred to clinical guidelines to aid their decision making when problem solving. First-year midwifery students (n = 25) filmed themselves undertaking a skill and then immediately played back the video file. A total of 45 students completed an online questionnaire that allowed for qualitative comments. Students reported finding the use of iPads easy and that iPads provided point-of-care access to resources, ensuring an evidence-based approach to clinical decision making. iPads reportedly improved student efficiency and time management, while improving their ability to provide patient education. Students who used iPads for the purpose of formative self-assessment appreciated the immediate feedback and opportunity to develop clinical skills.

Enhanced activation of the left hemisphere promotes normative decision making.

PubMed

Corser, Ryan; Jasper, John D

2014-01-01

Previous studies have reported that enhanced activation of the left cerebral hemisphere reduces risky-choice, attribute, and goal-framing effects relative to enhanced activation of the right cerebral hemisphere. The present study sought to extend these findings and show that enhanced activation of the left hemisphere also reduces violations of other normative principles, besides the invariance principle. Participants completed ratio bias (Experiment 1, N = 296) and base rate neglect problems (Experiment 2, N = 145) under normal (control) viewing or with the right or left hemisphere primarily activated by imposing a unidirectional gaze. In Experiment 1 we found that enhanced left hemispheric activation reduced the ratio bias relative to normal viewing and a group experiencing enhanced right hemispheric activation. In Experiment 2 enhanced left hemispheric activation resulted in using base rates more than normal viewing, but not significantly more than enhanced right hemispheric activation. Results suggest that hemispheric asymmetries can affect higher-order cognitive processes, such as decision-making biases. Possible theoretical accounts are discussed as well as implications for dual-process theories.

Predicting the decision to pursue mediation in civil disputes: a hierarchical classes analysis.

PubMed

Reich, Warren A; Kressel, Kenneth; Scanlon, Kathleen M; Weiner, Gary A

2007-11-01

Clients (N = 185) involved in civil court cases completed the CPR Institute's Mediation Screen, which is designed to assist in making a decision about pursuing mediation. The authors modeled data using hierarchical classes analysis (HICLAS), a clustering algorithm that places clients into 1 set of classes and CPRMS items into another set of classes. HICLAS then links the sets of classes so that any class of clients can be identified in terms of the classes of items they endorsed. HICLAS-derived item classes reflected 2 underlying themes: (a) suitability of the dispute for a problem-solving process and (b) potential benefits of mediation. All clients who perceived that mediation would be beneficial also believed that the context of their conflict was favorable to mediation; however, not all clients who saw a favorable context believed they would benefit from mediation. The majority of clients who agreed to pursue mediation endorsed items reflecting both contextual suitability and perceived benefits of mediation.

Fuzzy methods in decision making process - A particular approach in manufacturing systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coroiu, A. M.

2015-11-01

We are living in a competitive environment, so we can see and understand that the most of manufacturing firms do the best in order to accomplish meeting demand, increasing quality, decreasing costs, and delivery rate. In present a stake point of interest is represented by the development of fuzzy technology. A particular approach for this is represented through the development of methodologies to enhance the ability to managed complicated optimization and decision making aspects involving non-probabilistic uncertainty with the reason to understand, development, and practice the fuzzy technologies to be used in fields such as economic, engineering, management, and societal problems. Fuzzy analysis represents a method for solving problems which are related to uncertainty and vagueness; it is used in multiple areas, such as engineering and has applications in decision making problems, planning and production. As a definition for decision making process we can use the next one: result of mental processes based upon cognitive process with a main role in the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Every process of decision making can be represented as a result of a final choice and the output can be represented as an action or as an opinion of choice. Different types of uncertainty can be discovered in a wide variety of optimization and decision making problems related to planning and operation of power systems and subsystems. The mixture of the uncertainty factor in the construction of different models serves for increasing their adequacy and, as a result, the reliability and factual efficiency of decisions based on their analysis. Another definition of decision making process which came to illustrate and sustain the necessity of using fuzzy method: the decision making is an approach of choosing a strategy among many different projects in order to achieve some purposes and is formulated as three different models: high risk decision, usual risk decision and low risk decision - some specific formulas of fuzzy logic. The fuzzy set concepts has some certain parameterization features which are certain extensions of crisp and fuzzy relations respectively and have a rich potential for application to the decision making problems. The proposed approach from this paper presents advantages of fuzzy approach, in comparison with other paradigm and presents a particular way in which fuzzy logic can emerge in decision making process and planning process with implication, as a simulation, in manufacturing - involved in measuring performance of advanced manufacturing systems. Finally, an example is presented to illustrate our simulation.

Use of a web-based survey to facilitate shared decision making for patients eligible for cancer screening.

PubMed

Brackett, Charles D; Kearing, Stephen

2015-04-01

Our aim was to facilitate shared decision making (SDM) during preventive visits by utilizing a web-based survey system to offer colorectal cancer (CRC) and prostate cancer screening decision aids (DAs) to appropriately identified patients prior to the visit. Patients completed a web-based questionnaire before their preventive medicine appointment. Age- and gender-appropriate patients completed additional questions to determine eligibility for CRC or prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening. Eligible patients were offered a choice of video or print DA, and completed questions assessing their knowledge, values, and preferences regarding the screening decision. Responses were summarized and fed forward to clinician and patient reports. Overall, 11,493 CRC and 4,384 PSA questionnaires were completed. Patient responses were used to identify those eligible for cancer-screening DAs: 2,187 (19 %) for CRC and 2,962 (68 %) for PSA; 15 % of eligible patients requested a DA. Many patients declined a DA because they indicated they "already know enough to make their decision" (34 % for CRC, 46 % for PSA). A web-based questionnaire provides an efficient means to identify patients eligible for cancer screening decisions and to offer them DAs before an appointment. Pre-visit use of DAs along with reports giving feedback to patients and clinicians provides an opportunity for SDM to occur at the visit.

Expertise and age differences in pilot decision making.

PubMed

Morrow, Daniel G; Miller, Lisa M Soederberg; Ridolfo, Heather E; Magnor, Clifford; Fischer, Ute M; Kokayeff, Nina K; Stine-Morrow, Elizabeth A L

2009-01-01

We examined the influence of age and expertise on pilot decision making. Older and younger expert and novice pilots read at their own pace scenarios describing simpler or more complex flight situations. Then in a standard interview they discussed the scenario problem and how they would respond. Protocols were coded for identification of problem and solutions to this problem, and frequency of elaborations on problem and solution. Scenario comprehension was measured as differential reading time allocation to problem-critical information and scenario memory by the accuracy of answering questions about the scenarios after the interview. All groups accurately identified the problems, but experts elaborated problem descriptions more than novices did. Experts also spent more time reading critical information in the complex scenarios, which may reflect time needed to develop elaborate situation models of the problems. Expertise comprehension benefits were similar for older and younger pilots. Older experts were especially likely to elaborate the problem compared to younger experts, while older novices were less likely to elaborate the problem and to identify appropriate solutions compared to their younger counterparts. The findings suggest age invariance in knowledge-based comprehension relevant to pilot decision making.

Active inference, evidence accumulation and the urn task

PubMed Central

FitzGerald, Thomas HB; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; Moutoussis, Michael; Dolan, Raymond J; Friston, Karl

2015-01-01

Deciding how much evidence to accumulate before making a decision is a problem we and other animals often face, but one which is not completely understood. This issue is particularly important because a tendency to sample less information (often known as reflection impulsivity) is a feature in several psychopathologies, such as psychosis. A formal understanding information sampling may therefore clarify the computational anatomy of psychopathology. In this theoretical paper, we consider evidence accumulation in terms of active (Bayesian) inference using a generic model of Markov decision processes. Here, agents are equipped with beliefs about their own behaviour – in this case, that they will make informed decisions. Normative decision-making is then modelled using variational Bayes to minimise surprise about choice outcomes. Under this scheme, different facets of belief updating map naturally onto the functional anatomy of the brain (at least at a heuristic level). Of particular interest is the key role played by the expected precision of beliefs about control, which we have previously suggested may be encoded by dopaminergic neurons in the midbrain. We show that manipulating expected precision strongly affects how much information an agent characteristically samples, and thus provides a possible link between impulsivity and dopaminergic dysfunction. Our study therefore represents a step towards understanding evidence accumulation in terms of neurobiologically plausible Bayesian inference, and may cast light on why this process is disordered in psychopathology. PMID:25514108

"Sugar-Ray" School-Based Decision Groups.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hunt, John J.; And Others

1992-01-01

Investigates differences between high-achieving and low-achieving school-based decision groups in decision making. Decision groups (207 groups of 3 members each) used computer simulations to address problems facing principals concerning fourth grade academic achievement. Higher-achieving groups made more decisions and made a combination of related…

The influence of clinician emotion on decisions in child and adolescent eating disorder treatment: a survey of self and others.

PubMed

Lafrance Robinson, Adele; Kosmerly, Stacey

2015-01-01

Eating disorder clinicians from various disciplines participated in one of two surveys: the "self" group (n = 143) completed a survey assessing the negative influence of emotions on their own clinical decisions, while the "other" group (n = 145) completed a parallel version of the survey that assessed their perceptions of the negative influence of emotion in their colleagues. Both groups endorsed this phenomenon to some degree, although differences in reporting were noted between groups. The perceived negative influence of emotion with regards to specific treatment decisions fell within three categories: decisions regarding food and weight, decisions regarding the involvement of the family in treatment, and decisions related to autonomy and control. Decisions regarding the involvement of the family were perceived to be the most emotionally charged, in particular the involvement of a critical or dismissive parent.

Safety Assessment of Dangerous Goods Transport Enterprise Based on the Relative Entropy Aggregation in Group Decision Making Model

PubMed Central

Wu, Jun; Li, Chengbing; Huo, Yueying

2014-01-01

Safety of dangerous goods transport is directly related to the operation safety of dangerous goods transport enterprise. Aiming at the problem of the high accident rate and large harm in dangerous goods logistics transportation, this paper took the group decision making problem based on integration and coordination thought into a multiagent multiobjective group decision making problem; a secondary decision model was established and applied to the safety assessment of dangerous goods transport enterprise. First of all, we used dynamic multivalue background and entropy theory building the first level multiobjective decision model. Secondly, experts were to empower according to the principle of clustering analysis, and combining with the relative entropy theory to establish a secondary rally optimization model based on relative entropy in group decision making, and discuss the solution of the model. Then, after investigation and analysis, we establish the dangerous goods transport enterprise safety evaluation index system. Finally, case analysis to five dangerous goods transport enterprises in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region validates the feasibility and effectiveness of this model for dangerous goods transport enterprise recognition, which provides vital decision making basis for recognizing the dangerous goods transport enterprises. PMID:25477954

Optimal allocation model of construction land based on two-level system optimization theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Min; Liu, Yanfang; Xia, Yuping; Lei, Qihong

2007-06-01

The allocation of construction land is an important task in land-use planning. Whether implementation of planning decisions is a success or not, usually depends on a reasonable and scientific distribution method. Considering the constitution of land-use planning system and planning process in China, multiple levels and multiple objective decision problems is its essence. Also, planning quantity decomposition is a two-level system optimization problem and an optimal resource allocation decision problem between a decision-maker in the topper and a number of parallel decision-makers in the lower. According the characteristics of the decision-making process of two-level decision-making system, this paper develops an optimal allocation model of construction land based on two-level linear planning. In order to verify the rationality and the validity of our model, Baoan district of Shenzhen City has been taken as a test case. Under the assistance of the allocation model, construction land is allocated to ten townships of Baoan district. The result obtained from our model is compared to that of traditional method, and results show that our model is reasonable and usable. In the end, the paper points out the shortcomings of the model and further research directions.

Safety assessment of dangerous goods transport enterprise based on the relative entropy aggregation in group decision making model.

PubMed

Wu, Jun; Li, Chengbing; Huo, Yueying

2014-01-01

Safety of dangerous goods transport is directly related to the operation safety of dangerous goods transport enterprise. Aiming at the problem of the high accident rate and large harm in dangerous goods logistics transportation, this paper took the group decision making problem based on integration and coordination thought into a multiagent multiobjective group decision making problem; a secondary decision model was established and applied to the safety assessment of dangerous goods transport enterprise. First of all, we used dynamic multivalue background and entropy theory building the first level multiobjective decision model. Secondly, experts were to empower according to the principle of clustering analysis, and combining with the relative entropy theory to establish a secondary rally optimization model based on relative entropy in group decision making, and discuss the solution of the model. Then, after investigation and analysis, we establish the dangerous goods transport enterprise safety evaluation index system. Finally, case analysis to five dangerous goods transport enterprises in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region validates the feasibility and effectiveness of this model for dangerous goods transport enterprise recognition, which provides vital decision making basis for recognizing the dangerous goods transport enterprises.

Vista goes online: Decision-analytic systems for real-time decision-making in mission control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barry, Matthew; Horvitz, Eric; Ruokangas, Corinne; Srinivas, Sampath

1994-01-01

The Vista project has centered on the use of decision-theoretic approaches for managing the display of critical information relevant to real-time operations decisions. The Vista-I project originally developed a prototype of these approaches for managing flight control displays in the Space Shuttle Mission Control Center (MCC). The follow-on Vista-II project integrated these approaches in a workstation program which currently is being certified for use in the MCC. To our knowledge, this will be the first application of automated decision-theoretic reasoning techniques for real-time spacecraft operations. We shall describe the development and capabilities of the Vista-II system, and provide an overview of the use of decision-theoretic reasoning techniques to the problems of managing the complexity of flight controller displays. We discuss the relevance of the Vista techniques within the MCC decision-making environment, focusing on the problems of detecting and diagnosing spacecraft electromechanical subsystems component failures with limited information, and the problem of determining what control actions should be taken in high-stakes, time-critical situations in response to a diagnosis performed under uncertainty. Finally, we shall outline our current research directions for follow-on projects.

Effects of Interspersed Brief Problems on Students' Endurance at Completing Math Work

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montarello, Staci; Martens, Brian K.

2005-01-01

An alternating treatments design was used to compare the effects of baseline, interspersed brief problems, and interspersed brief problems plus token reinforcement on students' endurance while completing math worksheets. By pairing the completion of brief problems with token reinforcement, the role of problem completion as a conditioned reinforcer…

Tackling Complex Emergency Response Solutions Evaluation Problems in Sustainable Development by Fuzzy Group Decision Making Approaches with Considering Decision Hesitancy and Prioritization among Assessing Criteria.

PubMed

Qi, Xiao-Wen; Zhang, Jun-Ling; Zhao, Shu-Ping; Liang, Chang-Yong

2017-10-02

In order to be prepared against potential balance-breaking risks affecting economic development, more and more countries have recognized emergency response solutions evaluation (ERSE) as an indispensable activity in their governance of sustainable development. Traditional multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM) approaches to ERSE have been facing simultaneous challenging characteristics of decision hesitancy and prioritization relations among assessing criteria, due to the complexity in practical ERSE problems. Therefore, aiming at the special type of ERSE problems that hold the two characteristics, we investigate effective MCGDM approaches by hiring interval-valued dual hesitant fuzzy set (IVDHFS) to comprehensively depict decision hesitancy. To exploit decision information embedded in prioritization relations among criteria, we firstly define an fuzzy entropy measure for IVDHFS so that its derivative decision models can avoid potential information distortion in models based on classic IVDHFS distance measures with subjective supplementing mechanism; further, based on defined entropy measure, we develop two fundamental prioritized operators for IVDHFS by extending Yager's prioritized operators. Furthermore, on the strength of above methods, we construct two hesitant fuzzy MCGDM approaches to tackle complex scenarios with or without known weights for decision makers, respectively. Finally, case studies have been conducted to show effectiveness and practicality of our proposed approaches.

Predicting explorative motor learning using decision-making and motor noise.

PubMed

Chen, Xiuli; Mohr, Kieran; Galea, Joseph M

2017-04-01

A fundamental problem faced by humans is learning to select motor actions based on noisy sensory information and incomplete knowledge of the world. Recently, a number of authors have asked whether this type of motor learning problem might be very similar to a range of higher-level decision-making problems. If so, participant behaviour on a high-level decision-making task could be predictive of their performance during a motor learning task. To investigate this question, we studied performance during an explorative motor learning task and a decision-making task which had a similar underlying structure with the exception that it was not subject to motor (execution) noise. We also collected an independent measurement of each participant's level of motor noise. Our analysis showed that explorative motor learning and decision-making could be modelled as the (approximately) optimal solution to a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process bounded by noisy neural information processing. The model was able to predict participant performance in motor learning by using parameters estimated from the decision-making task and the separate motor noise measurement. This suggests that explorative motor learning can be formalised as a sequential decision-making process that is adjusted for motor noise, and raises interesting questions regarding the neural origin of explorative motor learning.

Predicting explorative motor learning using decision-making and motor noise

PubMed Central

Galea, Joseph M.

2017-01-01

A fundamental problem faced by humans is learning to select motor actions based on noisy sensory information and incomplete knowledge of the world. Recently, a number of authors have asked whether this type of motor learning problem might be very similar to a range of higher-level decision-making problems. If so, participant behaviour on a high-level decision-making task could be predictive of their performance during a motor learning task. To investigate this question, we studied performance during an explorative motor learning task and a decision-making task which had a similar underlying structure with the exception that it was not subject to motor (execution) noise. We also collected an independent measurement of each participant’s level of motor noise. Our analysis showed that explorative motor learning and decision-making could be modelled as the (approximately) optimal solution to a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process bounded by noisy neural information processing. The model was able to predict participant performance in motor learning by using parameters estimated from the decision-making task and the separate motor noise measurement. This suggests that explorative motor learning can be formalised as a sequential decision-making process that is adjusted for motor noise, and raises interesting questions regarding the neural origin of explorative motor learning. PMID:28437451

Tackling Complex Emergency Response Solutions Evaluation Problems in Sustainable Development by Fuzzy Group Decision Making Approaches with Considering Decision Hesitancy and Prioritization among Assessing Criteria

PubMed Central

Qi, Xiao-Wen; Zhang, Jun-Ling; Zhao, Shu-Ping; Liang, Chang-Yong

2017-01-01

In order to be prepared against potential balance-breaking risks affecting economic development, more and more countries have recognized emergency response solutions evaluation (ERSE) as an indispensable activity in their governance of sustainable development. Traditional multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM) approaches to ERSE have been facing simultaneous challenging characteristics of decision hesitancy and prioritization relations among assessing criteria, due to the complexity in practical ERSE problems. Therefore, aiming at the special type of ERSE problems that hold the two characteristics, we investigate effective MCGDM approaches by hiring interval-valued dual hesitant fuzzy set (IVDHFS) to comprehensively depict decision hesitancy. To exploit decision information embedded in prioritization relations among criteria, we firstly define an fuzzy entropy measure for IVDHFS so that its derivative decision models can avoid potential information distortion in models based on classic IVDHFS distance measures with subjective supplementing mechanism; further, based on defined entropy measure, we develop two fundamental prioritized operators for IVDHFS by extending Yager’s prioritized operators. Furthermore, on the strength of above methods, we construct two hesitant fuzzy MCGDM approaches to tackle complex scenarios with or without known weights for decision makers, respectively. Finally, case studies have been conducted to show effectiveness and practicality of our proposed approaches. PMID:28974045

The right to self-determination of minors with particular reference to the problem of euthanasia.

PubMed

Conti, Adelaide; Baratta, Adriana

2009-03-01

This article deals with the problem of euthanasia, a topic of recent interest, namely the rights of minors to make their own decision regarding to euthanasia. In fact the problem of decisions on euthanasia has always been considered an adult interest while leaving the will of minors in the hands of their parents or tutors. The purpose of this article is to underline the rights of self-determination of minors on the problem of euthanasia in Italy.

Assessing and comparing the usability of Chinese EHRs used in two Peking University hospitals to EHRs used in the US: A method of RUA.

PubMed

Xu, Lufei; Wen, Dong; Zhang, Xingting; Lei, Jianbo

2016-05-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the usability level of Chinese hospital Electronic Health Records (EHRs) by assessing the completion times of EHRs for seven "meaningful use (MU)" relevant tasks conducted at two Chinese tertiary hospitals and comparing the results to those of relevant research conducted in US EHRs. Using Rapid Usability Assessment (RUA) developed by the National Center for Cognitive Informatics and Decision Making (NCCD), the usability of EHRs from two Peking University hospitals was assessed using a three-step Keystroke Level Model (KLM) in a laboratory environment. (1) The total EHR task completion time for 7 MU relevant test tasks showed no significant differences between the two Chinese EHRs and their US counterparts, in which the time for thinking was relatively large and comprised 35.6% of the total time. The time for the electronic physician order was the largest. (2) For specific tasks, the mean completion times of the 2 hospital EHR systems spent on recording, modifying and searching (RMS) the medication orders were similar to those for the RMS radioactive tests; the mean time spent on the RMS laboratory test orders were much less. (3) There were 85 usability problems identified in the 2 hospital EHR systems. In Chinese EHRs, a substantial amount of time is required to complete tasks relevant to MU targets and many preventable usability problems can be discovered. The task completion time of the 2 Chinese EHR systems was a little shorter than in the 5 reported US EHR systems, while the differences in smoking status and CPOE tasks were obvious; one main reason for these differences was the use of structured data entry. The efficiency of Chinese and US EHRs was not significantly different. The key to improving the efficiency of both systems lies in expediting the Computerized physician order entry (CPOE) task. Many usability problems can be identified using heuristic assessments and improved by corresponding actions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Pharmacy and Therapeutic (P&T) Committee member knowledge, attitudes and ability regarding the use of comparative effectiveness research (CER) in health care decision-making.

PubMed

Tang, D H; Warholak, T L; Hines, L E; Hurwitz, J; Brown, M; Taylor, A M; Brixner, D; Malone, D C

2014-01-01

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) is a constellation of research methods designed to improve health care decision making. Educational programs that improve health care decision makers' CER knowledge and awareness may ultimately lead to more cost-effective use of health care resources. This study was conducted to evaluate changes in CER knowledge, attitudes, and ability among Pharmacy and Therapeutics (P&T) Committee members and support staff after attending a tailored educational program. Physicians and pharmacists from two professional societies and the Indian Health Service who participated in the P&T process were invited via email to participate in this study. Participants completed a questionnaire, designed specifically for this study, prior to and following the 4-hour live, educational program on CER to determine the impact on their related knowledge, attitudes, and ability to use CER in decision-making. Rasch analysis was used to assess validity and reliability of subsections of the questionnaire and regression analysis was used to assess programmatic impact on CER knowledge, attitude, and ability. One hundred and forty of the 199 participants completed both the pre- and post-CER session questionnaires (response rate = 70.4%). Most participants (>75%) correctly answered eight of the ten knowledge items after attending the educational session. More than 60% of the respondents had a positive attitude toward CER both before and after the program. Compared to baseline (pretest), participants reported significant improvements in their perceived ability to use CER after attending the session in these areas: using CER reviews, knowledge of CER methods, identifying problems with randomized controlled trials, identifying threats to validity, understanding of evidence synthesis approaches, and evaluating the quality of CER (all P values < 0.001). The questionnaire demonstrated acceptable reliability and validity evidence (limited evidence of construct under-representation and construct irrelevant variance). The CER educational program was effective in increasing participants' CER knowledge and self-perceived ability to evaluate relevant evidence. Improving knowledge and awareness of CER and its applicability is a critical first step in improving its use in health care decision making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An experimental paradigm for team decision processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Serfaty, D.; Kleinman, D. L.

1986-01-01

The study of distributed information processing and decision making is presently hampered by two factors: (1) The inherent complexity of the mathematical formulation of decentralized problems has prevented the development of models that could be used to predict performance in a distributed environment; and (2) The lack of comprehensive scientific empirical data on human team decision making has hindered the development of significant descriptive models. As a part of a comprehensive effort to find a new framework for multihuman decision making problems, a novel experimental research paradigm was developed involving human terms in decision making tasks. Attempts to construct parts of an integrated model with ideas from queueing networks, team theory, distributed estimation and decentralized resource management are described.

The Decision Tree: A Tool for Achieving Behavioral Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saren, Dru

1999-01-01

Presents a "Decision Tree" process for structuring team decision making and problem solving about specific student behavioral goals. The Decision Tree involves a sequence of questions/decisions that can be answered in "yes/no" terms. Questions address reasonableness of the goal, time factors, importance of the goal, responsibilities, safety,…

A decision-based perspective for the design of methods for systems design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mistree, Farrokh; Muster, Douglas; Shupe, Jon A.; Allen, Janet K.

1989-01-01

Organization of material, a definition of decision based design, a hierarchy of decision based design, the decision support problem technique, a conceptual model design that can be manufactured and maintained, meta-design, computer-based design, action learning, and the characteristics of decisions are among the topics covered.

Participatory approach to the development of a knowledge base for problem-solving in diabetes self-management.

PubMed

Cole-Lewis, Heather J; Smaldone, Arlene M; Davidson, Patricia R; Kukafka, Rita; Tobin, Jonathan N; Cassells, Andrea; Mynatt, Elizabeth D; Hripcsak, George; Mamykina, Lena

2016-01-01

To develop an expandable knowledge base of reusable knowledge related to self-management of diabetes that can be used as a foundation for patient-centric decision support tools. The structure and components of the knowledge base were created in participatory design with academic diabetes educators using knowledge acquisition methods. The knowledge base was validated using scenario-based approach with practicing diabetes educators and individuals with diabetes recruited from Community Health Centers (CHCs) serving economically disadvantaged communities and ethnic minorities in New York. The knowledge base includes eight glycemic control problems, over 150 behaviors known to contribute to these problems coupled with contextual explanations, and over 200 specific action-oriented self-management goals for correcting problematic behaviors, with corresponding motivational messages. The validation of the knowledge base suggested high level of completeness and accuracy, and identified improvements in cultural appropriateness. These were addressed in new iterations of the knowledge base. The resulting knowledge base is theoretically grounded, incorporates practical and evidence-based knowledge used by diabetes educators in practice settings, and allows for personally meaningful choices by individuals with diabetes. Participatory design approach helped researchers to capture implicit knowledge of practicing diabetes educators and make it explicit and reusable. The knowledge base proposed here is an important step towards development of new generation patient-centric decision support tools for facilitating chronic disease self-management. While this knowledge base specifically targets diabetes, its overall structure and composition can be generalized to other chronic conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Participatory approach to the development of a knowledge base for problem-solving in diabetes self-management

PubMed Central

Cole-Lewis, Heather J.; Smaldone, Arlene M.; Davidson, Patricia R.; Kukafka, Rita; Tobin, Jonathan N.; Cassells, Andrea; Mynatt, Elizabeth D.; Hripcsak, George; Mamykina, Lena

2015-01-01

Objective To develop an expandable knowledge base of reusable knowledge related to self-management of diabetes that can be used as a foundation for patient-centric decision support tools. Materials and methods The structure and components of the knowledge base were created in participatory design with academic diabetes educators using knowledge acquisition methods. The knowledge base was validated using scenario-based approach with practicing diabetes educators and individuals with diabetes recruited from Community Health Centers (CHCs) serving economically disadvantaged communities and ethnic minorities in New York. Results The knowledge base includes eight glycemic control problems, over 150 behaviors known to contribute to these problems coupled with contextual explanations, and over 200 specific action-oriented self-management goals for correcting problematic behaviors, with corresponding motivational messages. The validation of the knowledge base suggested high level of completeness and accuracy, and identified improvements in cultural appropriateness. These were addressed in new iterations of the knowledge base. Discussion The resulting knowledge base is theoretically grounded, incorporates practical and evidence-based knowledge used by diabetes educators in practice settings, and allows for personally meaningful choices by individuals with diabetes. Participatory design approach helped researchers to capture implicit knowledge of practicing diabetes educators and make it explicit and reusable. Conclusion The knowledge base proposed here is an important step towards development of new generation patient-centric decision support tools for facilitating chronic disease self-management. While this knowledge base specifically targets diabetes, its overall structure and composition can be generalized to other chronic conditions. PMID:26547253

Decision net, directed graph, and neural net processing of imaging spectrometer data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Casasent, David; Liu, Shiaw-Dong; Yoneyama, Hideyuki; Barnard, Etienne

1989-01-01

A decision-net solution involving a novel hierarchical classifier and a set of multiple directed graphs, as well as a neural-net solution, are respectively presented for large-class problem and mixture problem treatments of imaging spectrometer data. The clustering method for hierarchical classifier design, when used with multiple directed graphs, yields an efficient decision net. New directed-graph rules for reducing local maxima as well as the number of perturbations required, and the new starting-node rules for extending the reachability and reducing the search time of the graphs, are noted to yield superior results, as indicated by an illustrative 500-class imaging spectrometer problem.

Assessing ethical problem solving by reasoning rather than decision making.

PubMed

Tsai, Tsuen-Chiuan; Harasym, Peter H; Coderre, Sylvain; McLaughlin, Kevin; Donnon, Tyrone

2009-12-01

The assessment of ethical problem solving in medicine has been controversial and challenging. The purposes of this study were: (i) to create a new instrument to measure doctors' decisions on and reasoning approach towards resolving ethical problems; (ii) to evaluate the scores generated by the new instrument for their reliability and validity, and (iii) to compare doctors' ethical reasoning abilities between countries and among medical students, residents and experts. This study used 15 clinical vignettes and the think-aloud method to identify the processes and components involved in ethical problem solving. Subjects included volunteer ethics experts, postgraduate Year 2 residents and pre-clerkship medical students. The interview data were coded using the instruments of the decision score and Ethical Reasoning Inventory (ERI). The ERI assessed the quality of ethical reasoning for a particular case (Part I) and for an individual globally across all the vignettes (Part II). There were 17 Canadian and 32 Taiwanese subjects. Based on the Canadian standard, the decision scores between Taiwanese and Canadian subjects differed significantly, but made no discrimination among the three levels of expertise. Scores on the ERI Parts I and II, which reflect doctors' reasoning quality, differed between countries and among different levels of expertise in Taiwan, providing evidence of construct validity. In addition, experts had a greater organised knowledge structure and considered more relevant variables in the process of arriving at ethical decisions than did residents or students. The reliability of ERI scores was 0.70-0.99 on Part I and 0.75-0.80 on Part II. Expertise in solving ethical problems could not be differentiated by the decisions made, but could be differentiated according to the reasoning used to make those decisions. The difference between Taiwanese and Canadian experts suggests that cultural considerations come into play in the decisions that are made in the course of providing humane care to patients.

The Application of Recognition-Primed Decision Theory to Decisions Made in an Outdoor Education Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boyes, Mike; Potter, Tom

2015-01-01

This research examined the decisions that highly experienced outdoor leaders made on backpacking expeditions conducted by a tertiary institution in the Southern Alps of New Zealand. The purpose of the research was to document decision problems and explore them as Recognition-Primed Decisions (RPD) within naturalistic decision making (NDM)…

The Use of Task-based Cognitive Tests for Defining Vocational Aptness of Individuals with Disabilities.

PubMed

Kwon, Jae-Sung; Oh, Duck-Won

2015-06-01

The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the use of task-based cognitive tests to detect potential problems in the assessment of work training for vocational rehabilitation. Eleven participants with a normal range of cognitive functioning scores were recruited for this study. Participants were all trainees who participated in a vocational training program. The Rey Complex Figure Test and the Allen Cognitive Level Screen were randomly administered to all participants. Responses to the tests were qualitatively analyzed with matrix and scatter charts. Observational outcomes derived from the tests indicated that response errors, distortions, and behavioral problems occurred in most participants. These factors may impede occupational performance despite normal cognitive function. These findings suggest that the use of task-based tests may be beneficial for detecting potential problems associated with the work performance of people with disabilities. Specific analysis using the task-based tests may be necessary to complete the decision-making process for vocational aptness. Furthermore, testing should be led by professionals with a higher specialization in this field.

Evaluation of multiple muscle loads through multi-objective optimization with prediction of subjective satisfaction level: illustration by an application to handrail position for standing.

PubMed

Chihara, Takanori; Seo, Akihiko

2014-03-01

Proposed here is an evaluation of multiple muscle loads and a procedure for determining optimum solutions to ergonomic design problems. The simultaneous muscle load evaluation is formulated as a multi-objective optimization problem, and optimum solutions are obtained for each participant. In addition, one optimum solution for all participants, which is defined as the compromise solution, is also obtained. Moreover, the proposed method provides both objective and subjective information to support the decision making of designers. The proposed method was applied to the problem of designing the handrail position for the sit-to-stand movement. The height and distance of the handrails were the design variables, and surface electromyograms of four muscles were measured. The optimization results suggest that the proposed evaluation represents the impressions of participants more completely than an independent use of muscle loads. In addition, the compromise solution is determined, and the benefits of the proposed method are examined. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Participatory ergonomics among female cashiers from a department store.

PubMed

Cristancho, María Yanire León

2012-01-01

The objective of this paper was to control ergonomic risks among female cashiers working in a department store belonging to the retail market. This study was conducted between May and November 2010. Participatory ergonomics was applied through knowing and understanding how the company works, establishing the work team (Ergo group), training the team in ergonomics-related topics, and making decisions and interventions. The sample was composed of 71 participants--mostly female cashiers--, and all of them have a musculoskeletal compromise, declaring pain or discomfort mainly in the neck, lower back, right wrist and shoulders. Among others, following problems were found: postural overload, repetitive work, manual load handling, mental fatigue, environmental discomfort, variable work schedules, extended working days, and absence of breaks. In the intervention, the main implemented changes were the redesign of workstation, complete change of chairs and keyboards, and the implementation of a rotation system, as well breaks for compensatory exercises. After that, an evident improvement of found problems was observed, therefore it can be concluded that participatory ergonomics is an attractive methodology, appropriate and efficient for solving and controlling ergonomic risks and problems.

[Determinism and Freedom of Choice in the Brain Functioning].

PubMed

Ivanitsky, A M

2015-01-01

The problem is considered whether the brain response is completely determined by the stimulus and the personal experience or in some cases the brain is free to choose its behavioral response to achieve the desired goal. The attempt is made to approach to this important philosophical problem basing on modern knowledge about the brain. The paper consists of four parts. In the first part the theoretical views about the free choice problem solving are considered, including views about the freedom of choice as a useful illusion, the hypothesis on appliance of quantum mechanics laws to the brain functioning and the theory of mentalism. In other tree parts consequently the more complicated brain functions such as choice reaction, thinking and creation are analyzed. The general conclusion is that the possibility of quite unpredictable, but sometimes very effective decisions increases when the brain functions are more and more complicated. This fact can be explained with two factors: increasing stochasticity of the brain processes and the role of top-down determinations from mental to neural levels, according to the theory of mentalism.

A decision model for planetary missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.; Brigadier, W. L.

1976-01-01

Many techniques developed for the solution of problems in economics and operations research are directly applicable to problems involving engineering trade-offs. This paper investigates the use of utility theory for decision making in planetary exploration space missions. A decision model is derived that accounts for the objectives of the mission - science - the cost of flying the mission and the risk of mission failure. A simulation methodology for obtaining the probability distribution of science value and costs as a function spacecraft and mission design is presented and an example application of the decision methodology is given for various potential alternatives in a comet Encke mission.

Utility measurement in healthcare: the things I never got to.

PubMed

Torrance, George W

2006-01-01

The present article provides a brief historical background on the development of utility measurement and cost-utility analysis in healthcare. It then outlines a number of research ideas in this field that the author never got to. The first idea is extremely fundamental. Why is health economics the only application of economics that does not use the discipline of economics? And, more importantly, what discipline should it use? Research ideas are discussed to investigate precisely the underlying theory and axiom systems of both Paretian welfare economics and the decision-theoretical utility approach. Can the two approaches be integrated or modified in some appropriate way so that they better reflect the needs of the health field? The investigation is described both for the individual and societal levels. Constructing a 'Robinson Crusoe' society of only a few individuals with different health needs, preferences and willingness to pay is suggested as a method for gaining insight into the problem. The second idea concerns the interval property of utilities and, therefore, QALYs. It specifically concerns the important requirement that changes of equal magnitude anywhere on the utility scale, or alternatively on the QALY scale, should be equally desirable. Unfortunately, one of the original restrictions on utility theory states that such comparisons are not permitted by the theory. It is shown, in an important new finding, that while this restriction applies in a world of certainty, it does not in a world of uncertainty, such as healthcare. Further research is suggested to investigate this property under both certainty and uncertainty. Other research ideas that are described include: the development of a precise axiomatic basis for the time trade-off method; the investigation of chaining as a method of preference measurement with the standard gamble or time trade-off; the development and training of a representative panel of the general public to improve the completeness, coherence and consistency of measured preferences; and the investigation, using a model of a very small society, of the conflict between the patient perspective and the societal perspective regarding preferences. Finally, it is suggested that an important area of research, which the author never got to, would be to work closely with specific decision makers on specific decision problems, to help them formulate the problem, provide useful analyses, and to publish these as case studies to give the field a better understanding of the problems and the needs of decision makers.

Student Involvement in Problem Solving and Decision Making--A Look at the Facts of Life.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sweeney, Jim

1979-01-01

The author contends that, in spite of the belief by principals and teachers that students participate in school decision making and problem solving, in reality they really do not. He suggests ways in which this condition can be rectified. (KC)

Monitoring as a partially observable decision problem

Treesearch

Paul L. Fackler; Robert G. Haight

2014-01-01

Monitoring is an important and costly activity in resource man-agement problems such as containing invasive species, protectingendangered species, preventing soil erosion, and regulating con-tracts for environmental services. Recent studies have viewedoptimal monitoring as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Pro-cess (POMDP), which provides a framework for...

Sequential decision making in computational sustainability via adaptive submodularity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krause, Andreas; Golovin, Daniel; Converse, Sarah J.

2015-01-01

Many problems in computational sustainability require making a sequence of decisions in complex, uncertain environments. Such problems are generally notoriously difficult. In this article, we review the recently discovered notion of adaptive submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns condition that generalizes the classical notion of submodular set functions to sequential decision problems. Problems exhibiting the adaptive submodularity property can be efficiently and provably near-optimally solved using simple myopic policies. We illustrate this concept in several case studies of interest in computational sustainability: First, we demonstrate how it can be used to efficiently plan for resolving uncertainty in adaptive management scenarios. Secondly, we show how it applies to dynamic conservation planning for protecting endangered species, a case study carried out in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

Comparison of Naive Bayes and Decision Tree on Feature Selection Using Genetic Algorithm for Classification Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmadani, S.; Dongoran, A.; Zarlis, M.; Zakarias

2018-03-01

This paper discusses the problem of feature selection using genetic algorithms on a dataset for classification problems. The classification model used is the decicion tree (DT), and Naive Bayes. In this paper we will discuss how the Naive Bayes and Decision Tree models to overcome the classification problem in the dataset, where the dataset feature is selectively selected using GA. Then both models compared their performance, whether there is an increase in accuracy or not. From the results obtained shows an increase in accuracy if the feature selection using GA. The proposed model is referred to as GADT (GA-Decision Tree) and GANB (GA-Naive Bayes). The data sets tested in this paper are taken from the UCI Machine Learning repository.

An entertainment-education colorectal cancer screening decision aid for African American patients: A randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Hoffman, Aubri S; Lowenstein, Lisa M; Kamath, Geetanjali R; Housten, Ashley J; Leal, Viola B; Linder, Suzanne K; Jibaja-Weiss, Maria L; Raju, Gottumukkala S; Volk, Robert J

2017-04-15

Colorectal cancer screening rates for African American patients remain suboptimal. Patient decision aids designed with an entertainment-education approach have been shown to improve saliency and foster informed decision making. The purpose of this study was to assess whether an entertainment-education decision aid tailored for African American patients improved patients' decision making, attitudes, intentions, or colorectal cancer screening behavior. Eighty-nine participants were randomized to view 1) a patient decision aid video containing culturally tailored information about colorectal cancer screening options and theory-based support in decision making presented in an entertainment-education format or 2) an attention control video about hypertension that contained similarly detailed information. Participants met with their clinician and then completed follow-up questionnaires assessing their knowledge, decisional conflict, self-advocacy, attitudes, perceived social norms, and intentions. At 3 months, completion of screening was assessed by chart review. Viewing the culturally tailored decision aid significantly increased African American patients' knowledge of colorectal cancer screening recommendations and options. It also significantly reduced their decisional conflict and improved their self-advocacy. No significant differences were observed in participants' attitudes, norms, or intentions. At three months, 23% of all patients had completed a colonoscopy. Designing targeted, engaging patient decision aids for groups that receive suboptimal screening holds promise for improving patient decision making and self-advocacy. Additional research is warranted to investigate the effectiveness of such aids in clinical practices with suboptimal screening rates and on downstream behaviors (such as repeat testing). Cancer 2017;123:1401-1408. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Universal size effects for populations in group-outcome decision-making problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borghesi, Christian; Hernández, Laura; Louf, Rémi; Caparros, Fabrice

2013-12-01

Elections constitute a paradigm of decision-making problems that have puzzled experts of different disciplines for decades. We study two decision-making problems, where groups make decisions that impact only themselves as a group. In both studied cases, participation in local elections and the number of democratic representatives at different scales (from local to national), we observe a universal scaling with the constituency size. These results may be interpreted as constituencies having a hierarchical structure, where each group of N agents, at each level of the hierarchy, is divided in about Nδ subgroups with δ≈1/3. Following this interpretation, we propose a phenomenological model of vote participation where abstention is related to the perceived link of an agent to the rest of the constituency and which reproduces quantitatively the observed data.

Constrained optimization via simulation models for new product innovation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pujowidianto, Nugroho A.

2017-11-01

We consider the problem of constrained optimization where the decision makers aim to optimize the primary performance measure while constraining the secondary performance measures. This paper provides a brief overview of stochastically constrained optimization via discrete event simulation. Most review papers tend to be methodology-based. This review attempts to be problem-based as decision makers may have already decided on the problem formulation. We consider constrained optimization models as there are usually constraints on secondary performance measures as trade-off in new product development. It starts by laying out different possible methods and the reasons using constrained optimization via simulation models. It is then followed by the review of different simulation optimization approach to address constrained optimization depending on the number of decision variables, the type of constraints, and the risk preferences of the decision makers in handling uncertainties.

Three essays on multi-level optimization models and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahdar, Mohammad

The general form of a multi-level mathematical programming problem is a set of nested optimization problems, in which each level controls a series of decision variables independently. However, the value of decision variables may also impact the objective function of other levels. A two-level model is called a bilevel model and can be considered as a Stackelberg game with a leader and a follower. The leader anticipates the response of the follower and optimizes its objective function, and then the follower reacts to the leader's action. The multi-level decision-making model has many real-world applications such as government decisions, energy policies, market economy, network design, etc. However, there is a lack of capable algorithms to solve medium and large scale these types of problems. The dissertation is devoted to both theoretical research and applications of multi-level mathematical programming models, which consists of three parts, each in a paper format. The first part studies the renewable energy portfolio under two major renewable energy policies. The potential competition for biomass for the growth of the renewable energy portfolio in the United States and other interactions between two policies over the next twenty years are investigated. This problem mainly has two levels of decision makers: the government/policy makers and biofuel producers/electricity generators/farmers. We focus on the lower-level problem to predict the amount of capacity expansions, fuel production, and power generation. In the second part, we address uncertainty over demand and lead time in a multi-stage mathematical programming problem. We propose a two-stage tri-level optimization model in the concept of rolling horizon approach to reducing the dimensionality of the multi-stage problem. In the third part of the dissertation, we introduce a new branch and bound algorithm to solve bilevel linear programming problems. The total time is reduced by solving a smaller relaxation problem in each node and decreasing the number of iterations. Computational experiments show that the proposed algorithm is faster than the existing ones.

Communicating risk of hereditary breast and ovarian cancer with an interactive decision support tool.

PubMed

Rupert, Douglas J; Squiers, Linda B; Renaud, Jeanette M; Whitehead, Nedra S; Osborn, Roger J; Furberg, Robert D; Squire, Claudia M; Tzeng, Janice P

2013-08-01

Women with hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndrome (HBOC) face a higher risk of earlier, more aggressive cancer. Because of HBOC's rarity, screening is recommended only for women with strong cancer family histories. However, most patients do not have accurate history available and struggle to understand genetic concepts. Cancer in the Family, an online clinical decision support tool, calculated women's HBOC risk and promoted shared patient-provider decisions about screening. A pilot evaluation (n=9 providers, n=48 patients) assessed the tool's impact on knowledge, attitudes, and screening decisions. Patients used the tool before wellness exams and completed three surveys. Providers accessed the tool during exams, completed exam checklists, and completed four surveys. Patients entered complete family histories (67%), calculated personal risk (96%), and shared risk printouts with providers (65%). HBOC knowledge increased dramatically for patients and providers, and many patients (75%) perceived tool results as valid. The tool prompted patient-provider discussions about HBOC risk and cancer family history (88%). The tool was effective in increasing knowledge, collecting family history, and sparking patient-provider discussions about HBOC screening. Interactive tools can effectively communicate personalized risk and promote shared decisions, but they are not a substitute for patient-provider discussions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the Value of Downscaled Climate Model Information for Adaptation Decisions: When is Downscaling a Smart Decision?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Wootten, A.; Eaton, M. J.; Runge, M. C.; Littell, J. S.; Bryan, A. M.; Carter, S. L.

2015-12-01

Two types of decisions face society with respect to anthropogenic climate change: (1) whether to enact a global greenhouse gas abatement policy, and (2) how to adapt to the local consequences of current and future climatic changes. The practice of downscaling global climate models (GCMs) is often used to address (2) because GCMs do not resolve key features that will mediate global climate change at the local scale. In response, the development of downscaling techniques and models has accelerated to aid decision makers seeking adaptation guidance. However, quantifiable estimates of the value of information are difficult to obtain, particularly in decision contexts characterized by deep uncertainty and low system-controllability. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify the additional value that decision makers could expect if research investments are directed towards developing new downscaled climate projections. As a proof of concept we focus on a real-world management problem: whether to undertake assisted migration for an endangered tropical avian species. We also take advantage of recently published multivariate methods that account for three vexing issues in climate impacts modeling: maximizing climate model quality information, accounting for model dependence in ensembles of opportunity, and deriving probabilistic projections. We expand on these global methods by including regional (Caribbean Basin) and local (Puerto Rico) domains. In the local domain, we test whether a high resolution (2km) dynamically downscaled GCM reduces the multivariate error estimate compared to the original coarse-scale GCM. Initial tests show little difference between the downscaled and original GCM multivariate error. When propagated through to a species population model, the Value of Information analysis indicates that the expected utility that would accrue to the manager (and species) if this downscaling were completed may not justify the cost compared to alternative actions.

Impaired decision-making and selective cortical frontal thinning in Cushing's syndrome.

PubMed

Crespo, Iris; Esther, Granell-Moreno; Santos, Alicia; Valassi, Elena; Yolanda, Vives-Gilabert; De Juan-Delago, Manel; Webb, Susan M; Gómez-Ansón, Beatriz; Resmini, Eugenia

2014-12-01

Cushing's syndrome (CS) is caused by a glucocorticoid excess. This hypercortisolism can damage the prefrontal cortex, known to be important in decision-making. Our aim was to evaluate decision-making in CS and to explore cortical thickness. Thirty-five patients with CS (27 cured, eight medically treated) and thirty-five matched controls were evaluated using Iowa gambling task (IGT) and 3 Tesla magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to assess cortical thickness. The IGT evaluates decision-making, including strategy and learning during the test. Cortical thickness was determined on MRI using freesurfer software tools, including a whole-brain analysis. There were no differences between medically treated and cured CS patients. They presented an altered decision-making strategy compared to controls, choosing a lower number of the safer cards (P < 0·05). They showed more difficulties than controls to learn the correct profiles of wins and losses for each card group (P < 0·05). In whole-brain analysis, patients with CS showed decreased cortical thickness in the left superior frontal cortex, left precentral cortex, left insular cortex, left and right rostral anterior cingulate cortex, and right caudal middle frontal cortex compared to controls (P < 0·001). Patients with CS failed to learn advantageous strategies and their behaviour was driven by short-term reward and long-term punishment, indicating learning problems because they did not use previous experience as a feedback factor to regulate their choices. These alterations in decision-making and the decreased cortical thickness in frontal areas suggest that chronic hypercortisolism promotes brain changes which are not completely reversible after endocrine remission. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A study on spatial decision support systems for HIV/AIDS prevention based on COM GIS technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Kun; Luo, Huasong; Peng, Shungyun; Xu, Quanli

2007-06-01

Based on the deeply analysis of the current status and the existing problems of GIS technology applications in Epidemiology, this paper has proposed the method and process for establishing the spatial decision support systems of AIDS epidemic prevention by integrating the COM GIS, Spatial Database, GPS, Remote Sensing, and Communication technologies, as well as ASP and ActiveX software development technologies. One of the most important issues for constructing the spatial decision support systems of AIDS epidemic prevention is how to integrate the AIDS spreading models with GIS. The capabilities of GIS applications in the AIDS epidemic prevention have been described here in this paper firstly. Then some mature epidemic spreading models have also been discussed for extracting the computation parameters. Furthermore, a technical schema has been proposed for integrating the AIDS spreading models with GIS and relevant geospatial technologies, in which the GIS and model running platforms share a common spatial database and the computing results can be spatially visualized on Desktop or Web GIS clients. Finally, a complete solution for establishing the decision support systems of AIDS epidemic prevention has been offered in this paper based on the model integrating methods and ESRI COM GIS software packages. The general decision support systems are composed of data acquisition sub-systems, network communication sub-systems, model integrating sub-systems, AIDS epidemic information spatial database sub-systems, AIDS epidemic information querying and statistical analysis sub-systems, AIDS epidemic dynamic surveillance sub-systems, AIDS epidemic information spatial analysis and decision support sub-systems, as well as AIDS epidemic information publishing sub-systems based on Web GIS.

Ethical case deliberation and decision making.

PubMed

Gracia, Diego

2003-01-01

During the last thirty years different methods have been proposed in order to manage and resolve ethical quandaries, specially in the clinical setting. Some of these methodologies are based on the principles of Decision-making theory. Others looked to other philosophical traditions, like Principlism, Hermeneutics, Narrativism, Casuistry, Pragmatism, etc. This paper defends the view that deliberation is the cornerstone of any adequate methodology. This is due to the fact that moral decisions must take into account not only principles and ideas, but also emotions, values and beliefs. Deliberation is the process in which everyone concerned by the decision is considered a valid moral agent, obliged to give reasons for their own points of view, and to listen to the reasons of others. The goal of this process is not the reaching of a consensus but the enrichment of one's own point of view with that of the others, increasing in this way the maturity of one's own decision, in order to make it more wise or prudent. In many cases the members of a group of deliberation will differ in the final solution of the case, but the confrontation of their reasons will modify the perception of the problem of everyone. This is the profit of the process. Our moral decisions cannot be completely rational, due to the fact that they are influenced by feelings, values, beliefs, etc., but they must be reasonable, that is, wise and prudent. Deliberation is the main procedure to reach this goal. It obliges us to take others into account, respecting their different beliefs and values and prompting them to give reasons for their own points of view. This method has been traditional in Western clinical medicine all over its history, and it should be also the main procedure for clinical ethics.

Technology for Director Dubious: Evaluation and Decision in Public Contexts

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-08-01

Utilities at six Nuclear Waste Disposal Sites v . . . ".. . Acknowledgment h., Preparation of this report and conceptual work on the place of decision...cannot necessarily be related to public decisions without a great deal of intermediate work ." On the question of measuring values, Mr. Coates seems to...is addressed to the first of the two key problems that Mr. Coates identified: the problem of uncer- tainty. The work that I will be reporting comes

Structured decision making for managing pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sells, Sarah N.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.

2016-01-01

Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Although there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. To illustrate the application of this process to a management need, we present an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in Montana. Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers due to long-term impacts to herds, epistemic uncertainty in timing and location of future epizootics, and consequent difficulty knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Decision analyses for 2 example herds revealed that meeting management objectives necessitates specific approaches unique to each herd. The analyses showed how and under what circumstances the alternatives are optimal compared to other approaches and current management. Managers can be confident that these decisions are effective, efficient, and realistic because they explicitly account for important considerations managers implicitly weigh when making decisions, including competing management objectives, uncertainty in potential outcomes, and risk tolerance.

Expectation Violation in Political Decision Making: A Psychological Case Study.

PubMed

Öllinger, Michael; Meissner, Karin; von Müller, Albrecht; Collado Seidel, Carlos

2017-01-01

Since the early Gestaltists there has been a strong interest in the question of how problem solvers get stuck in a mental impasse. A key idea is that the repeated activation of a successful strategy from the past results in a mental set ('Einstellung') which determines and constrains the option space to solve a problem. We propose that this phenomenon, which mostly was tested by fairly restricted experiments in the lab, could also be applied to more complex problem constellations and naturalistic decision making. We aim at scrutinizing and reconstructing how a mental set determines the misinterpretation of facts in the field of political decision making and leads in consequence to wrong expectations and an ill-defined problem representation. We will exemplify this psychological mechanism considering a historical example, namely the unexpected stabilization of the Franco regime at the end of World War II and its survival thereafter. A specific focus will be drawn to the significant observation that erroneous expectations were taken as the basis for decisions. This is congruent with the notion that in case of discrepancy between preconceived notions and new information, the former prevails over the new findings. Based on these findings, we suggest a theoretical model for expectation violation in political decision making and develop novel approaches for cognitive empirical research on the mechanisms of expectation violation and its maintenance in political decision making processes.

Spontaneous mental associations with the words "side effect": Implications for informed and shared decision making.

PubMed

Izadi, Sonya; Pachur, Thorsten; Wheeler, Courtney; McGuire, Jaclyn; Waters, Erika A

2017-10-01

To gain insight into patients' medical decisions by exploring the content of laypeople's spontaneous mental associations with the term "side effect." An online cross-sectional survey asked 144 women aged 40-74, "What are the first three things you think of when you hear the words 'side effect?"' Data were analyzed using content analysis, chi-square, and Fisher's exact tests. 17 codes emerged and were grouped into 4 themes and a Miscellaneous category: Health Problems (70.8% of participants), Decision-Relevant Evaluations (52.8%), Negative Affect (30.6%), Practical Considerations (18.1%) and Miscellaneous (9.7%). The 4 most frequently identified codes were: Risk (36.1%), Health Problems-Specific Symptoms (35.4%), Health Problems-General Terms (32.6%), and Negative Affect-Strong (19.4%). Code and theme frequencies were generally similar across demographic groups (ps>0.05). The term "side effect" spontaneously elicited comments related to identifying health problems and expressing negative emotions. This might explain why the mere possibility of side effects triggers negative affect for people making medical decisions. Some respondents also mentioned decision-relevant evaluations and practical considerations in response to side effects. Addressing commonly-held associations and acknowledging negative affects provoked by side effects are first steps healthcare providers can take towards improving informed and shared patient decision making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expectation Violation in Political Decision Making: A Psychological Case Study

PubMed Central

Öllinger, Michael; Meissner, Karin; von Müller, Albrecht; Collado Seidel, Carlos

2017-01-01

Since the early Gestaltists there has been a strong interest in the question of how problem solvers get stuck in a mental impasse. A key idea is that the repeated activation of a successful strategy from the past results in a mental set (‘Einstellung’) which determines and constrains the option space to solve a problem. We propose that this phenomenon, which mostly was tested by fairly restricted experiments in the lab, could also be applied to more complex problem constellations and naturalistic decision making. We aim at scrutinizing and reconstructing how a mental set determines the misinterpretation of facts in the field of political decision making and leads in consequence to wrong expectations and an ill-defined problem representation. We will exemplify this psychological mechanism considering a historical example, namely the unexpected stabilization of the Franco regime at the end of World War II and its survival thereafter. A specific focus will be drawn to the significant observation that erroneous expectations were taken as the basis for decisions. This is congruent with the notion that in case of discrepancy between preconceived notions and new information, the former prevails over the new findings. Based on these findings, we suggest a theoretical model for expectation violation in political decision making and develop novel approaches for cognitive empirical research on the mechanisms of expectation violation and its maintenance in political decision making processes. PMID:29085316

A new web-based framework development for fuzzy multi-criteria group decision-making.

PubMed

Hanine, Mohamed; Boutkhoum, Omar; Tikniouine, Abdessadek; Agouti, Tarik

2016-01-01

Fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making (FMCGDM) process is usually used when a group of decision-makers faces imprecise data or linguistic variables to solve the problems. However, this process contains many methods that require many time-consuming calculations depending on the number of criteria, alternatives and decision-makers in order to reach the optimal solution. In this study, a web-based FMCGDM framework that offers decision-makers a fast and reliable response service is proposed. The proposed framework includes commonly used tools for multi-criteria decision-making problems such as fuzzy Delphi, fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS methods. The integration of these methods enables taking advantages of the strengths and complements each method's weakness. Finally, a case study of location selection for landfill waste in Morocco is performed to demonstrate how this framework can facilitate decision-making process. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework can successfully accomplish the goal of this study.

38 CFR 41.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Management decision. 41... Entities § 41.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall clearly state whether or... completed corrective action, a timetable for follow-up should be given. Prior to issuing the management...

38 CFR 41.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Management decision. 41... Entities § 41.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall clearly state whether or... completed corrective action, a timetable for follow-up should be given. Prior to issuing the management...

38 CFR 41.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Management decision. 41... Entities § 41.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall clearly state whether or... completed corrective action, a timetable for follow-up should be given. Prior to issuing the management...

38 CFR 41.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Management decision. 41... Entities § 41.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall clearly state whether or... completed corrective action, a timetable for follow-up should be given. Prior to issuing the management...

36 CFR 220.4 - General requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... agency decisionmaking by: (1) Completing the environmental document review before making a decision on...(s) before rendering a decision on the proposal; and (5) Making a decision encompassed within the... preparing to make a decision on one or more alternative means of accomplishing that goal and the effects can...

38 CFR 41.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Management decision. 41... Entities § 41.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall clearly state whether or... completed corrective action, a timetable for follow-up should be given. Prior to issuing the management...

A model of supervisor decision-making in the accommodation of workers with low back pain

PubMed Central

Williams-Whitt, Kelly; Kristman, Vicki; Shaw, William S.; Soklaridis, Sophie; Reguly, Paula

2016-01-01

PURPOSE To explore supervisors’ perspectives and decision-making processes in the accommodation of back injured workers. METHODS Twenty-three semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with supervisors from eleven Canadian organizations about their role in providing job accommodations. Supervisors were identified through an on-line survey and interviews were recorded, transcribed and entered into NVivo software. The initial analyses identified common units of meaning, which were used to develop a coding guide. Interviews were coded, and a model of supervisor decision-making was developed based on the themes, categories and connecting ideas identified in the data. RESULTS The decision-making model includes a process element that is described as iterative “trial and error” decision-making. Medical restrictions are compared to job demands, employee abilities and available alternatives. A feasible modification is identified through brainstorming and then implemented by the supervisor. Resources used for brainstorming include information, supervisor experience and autonomy, and organizational supports. The model also incorporates the experience of accommodation as a job demand that causes strain for the supervisor. Accommodation demands affect the supervisor’s attitude, brainstorming and monitoring effort and communication with returning employees. Resources and demands have a combined effect on accommodation decision complexity, which in turn affects the quality of the accommodation option selected. If the employee is unable to complete the tasks or is reinjured during the accommodation, the decision cycle repeats. More frequent iteration through the trial and error process reduces the likelihood of return to work success. CONCLUSIONS A series of propositions is developed to illustrate the relationships among categories in the model. The model and propositions show: a) the iterative, problem solving nature of the RTW process; b) decision resources necessary for accommodation planning, and c) the impact accommodation demands may have on supervisors and RTW quality. PMID:26811170

Myopic Loss Aversion: Demystifying the Key Factors Influencing Decision Problem Framing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hardin, Andrew M.; Looney, Clayton Arlen

2012-01-01

Advancement of myopic loss aversion theory has been hamstrung by conflicting results, methodological inconsistencies, and a piecemeal approach toward understanding the key factors influencing decision problem framing. A series of controlled experiments provides a more holistic view of the variables promoting myopia. Extending the information…

Involving Students in Natural Resource Decision-Making Groups.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ellsworth, Peter; Ellsworth, Judith

2001-01-01

Describes the Coordinated Resource Management (CRM) in the Classroom project, in which Wyoming high school students work on an authentic natural resource problem, using a decision-making process based on consensus to reach agreement on solutions to the problem. Notes implementation issues of professional development and support, and considers…

Legal and Constitutional Problems of Public Support for Nonpublic Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whelan, Charles M.; Freund, Paul A.

Two authors analyze the problems facing aid to nonpublic school education and review relevant court decisions, emphasizing the latest Supreme Court decisions on the subject. Charles M. Whelan provides an analytical framework for determining the constitutionality of various assistance forms. He suggests that each program should be submitted to…

Theory Oriented Research: Problems and Challenges.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greer, John T.

This paper discusses problems the author encountered in attempting to conduct a study of teacher motivation as influenced by a combination of participative decision-making and financial rewards. Over a 3-year period, teacher motivation was to be viewed as influenced by two independent variables--participative decision-making and financial rewards;…

Triple Value System Dynamics Modeling to Help Stakeholders Engage with Food-Energy-Water Problems

EPA Science Inventory

Triple Value (3V) Community scoping projects and Triple Value Simulation (3VS) models help decision makers and stakeholders apply systems-analysis methodology to complex problems related to food production, water quality, and energy use. 3VS models are decision support tools that...

Decision Making for the Environment: Social and Behavioral Science Research Priorities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brewer, Garry D., Ed.; Stern, Paul C., Ed.

2005-01-01

With the growing number, complexity, and importance of environmental problems come demands to include a full range of intellectual disciplines and scholarly traditions to help define and eventually manage such problems more effectively. "Decision Making for the Environment: Social and Behavioral Science Research Priorities" is the result…

Problem-Solving Model for Decision Making with High-Incidence Disabilities: The Minneapolis Experience.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marston, Doug; Muyskens, Paul; Lau, Matthew; Canter, Andrea

2003-01-01

This article describes the problem-solving model (PSM) used in the Minneapolis Public Schools to guide decisions regarding intervention in general education, special education referral, and evaluation for special education eligibility for high-incidence disabilities. Program evaluation indicates students received special education services earlier…

Predicting quantitative and qualitative values of recreation participation

Treesearch

Elwood L., Jr. Shafer; George Moeller

1971-01-01

If future recreation consumption and associated intangible values can be predicted, the problem of rapid decision making in recreation-resource management can be reduced, and the problems of implementing those decisions can be anticipated. Management and research responsibilities for meeting recreation demand are discussed, and proved methods for forecasting recreation...

HIV or HIV-Therapy? Causal attributions of symptoms and their impact on treatment decisions among women and men with HIV

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Objectives Among people with HIV, we examined symptom attribution to HIV or HIV-therapy, awareness of potential side effects and discontinuation of treatment, as well as sex/gender differences. Methods HIV-patients (N = 168, 46% female) completed a comprehensive symptom checklist (attributing each endorsed symptom to HIV, HIV-therapy, or other causes), reported reasons for treatment discontinuations and potential ART-related laboratory abnormalities. Results Main symptom areas were fatigue/sleep/energy, depression/mood, lipodystrophy, and gastrointestinal, dermatological, and neurological problems. Top HIV-attributed symptoms were lack of stamina/energy in both genders, night sweats, depression, mood swings in women; and fatigue, lethargy, difficulties concentrating in men. Women attributed symptoms less frequently to HIV than men, particularly fa-tigue(p < .01). Top treatment-attributed symptoms were lipodystrophy and gastrointestinal problems in both genders. Symptom attribution to HIV-therapy did not differ between genders. Over the past six months, 22% switched/interrupted ART due to side effects. In women, side effect-related treatment decisions were more complex, involving more side effects and substances. Remarkably, women took predominantly protease inhibitor-sparing regimens (p = .05). Both genders reported only 15% of potential ART-related laboratory abnormalities but more than 50% had laboratory abnormalities. Notably, women had fewer elevated renal parameters (p < .01). Conclusions Men may attribute symptoms more often to HIV and maintain a treatment-regimen despite side effects, whereas women may be more prudent in avoiding treatment side effects. Lacking awareness of laboratory abnormalities in both genders potentially indicates gaps in physician-patient communication. Gender differences in causal attributions of symptoms/side effects may influence treatment decisions. PMID:19380286

Review of various approaches for assessing public health risks in regulatory decision making: choosing the right approach for the problem.

PubMed

Dearfield, Kerry L; Hoelzer, Karin; Kause, Janell R

2014-08-01

Stakeholders in the public health risk analysis community can possess differing opinions about what is meant by "conduct a risk assessment." In reality, there is no one-size-fits-all risk assessment that can address all public health issues, problems, and regulatory needs. Although several international and national organizations (e.g., Codex Alimentarius Commission, Office International des Epizooties, Food and Agricultural Organization, World Health Organization, National Research Council, and European Food Safety Authority) have addressed this issue, confusion remains. The type and complexity of a risk assessment must reflect the risk management needs to appropriately inform a regulatory or nonregulatory decision, i.e., a risk assessment is ideally "fit for purpose" and directly applicable to risk management issues of concern. Frequently however, there is a lack of understanding by those not completely familiar with risk assessment regarding the specific utility of different approaches for assessing public health risks. This unfamiliarity can unduly hamper the acceptance of risk assessment results by risk managers and may reduce the usefulness of such results for guiding public health policies, practices, and operations. Differences in interpretation of risk assessment terminology further complicate effective communication among risk assessors, risk managers, and stakeholders. This article provides an overview of the types of risk assessments commonly conducted, with examples primarily from the food and agricultural sectors, and a discussion of the utility and limitations of these specific approaches for assessing public health risks. Clarification of the risk management issues and corresponding risk assessment design needs during the formative stages of the risk analysis process is a key step for ensuring that the most appropriate assessment of risk is developed and used to guide risk management decisions.

Nuclear waste transportation: case studies of identifying stakeholder risk information needs.

PubMed Central

Drew, Christina H; Grace, Deirdre A; Silbernagel, Susan M; Hemmings, Erin S; Smith, Alan; Griffith, William C; Takaro, Timothy K; Faustman, Elaine M

2003-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for the cleanup of our nation's nuclear legacy, involving complex decisions about how and where to dispose of nuclear waste and how to transport it to its ultimate disposal site. It is widely recognized that a broad range of stakeholders and tribes should be involved in this kind of decision. All too frequently, however, stakeholders and tribes are only invited to participate by commenting on processes and activities that are near completion; they are not included in the problem formulation stages. Moreover, it is often assumed that high levels of complexity and uncertainty prevent meaningful participation by these groups. Considering the types of information that stakeholders and tribes need to be able to participate in the full life cycle of decision making is critical for improving participation and transparency of decision making. Toward this objective, the Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation (CRESP) participated in three public processes relating to nuclear waste transportation and disposal in 1997-1998. First, CRESP organized focus groups to identify concerns about nuclear waste transportation. Second, CRESP conducted exit surveys at regional public workshops held by DOE to get input from stakeholders on intersite waste transfer issues. Third, CRESP developed visual tools to synthesize technical information and allow stakeholders and tribes with varying levels of knowledge about nuclear waste to participate in meaningful discussion. In this article we share the results of the CRESP findings, discuss common themes arising from these interactions, and comment on special considerations needed to facilitate stakeholder and tribal participation in similar decision-making processes. PMID:12611653

Time optimized path-choice in the termite hunting ant Megaponera analis.

PubMed

Frank, Erik T; Hönle, Philipp O; Linsenmair, K Eduard

2018-05-10

Trail network systems among ants have received a lot of scientific attention due to their various applications in problem solving of networks. Recent studies have shown that ants select the fastest available path when facing different velocities on different substrates, rather than the shortest distance. The progress of decision-making by these ants is determined by pheromone-based maintenance of paths, which is a collective decision. However, path optimization through individual decision-making remains mostly unexplored. Here we present the first study of time-optimized path selection via individual decision-making by scout ants. Megaponera analis scouts search for termite foraging sites and lead highly organized raid columns to them. The path of the scout determines the path of the column. Through installation of artificial roads around M. analis nests we were able to influence the pathway choice of the raids. After road installation 59% of all recorded raids took place completely or partly on the road, instead of the direct, i.e. distance-optimized, path through grass from the nest to the termites. The raid velocity on the road was more than double the grass velocity, the detour thus saved 34.77±23.01% of the travel time compared to a hypothetical direct path. The pathway choice of the ants was similar to a mathematical model of least time allowing us to hypothesize the underlying mechanisms regulating the behavior. Our results highlight the importance of individual decision-making in the foraging behavior of ants and show a new procedure of pathway optimization. © 2018. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Modeling the Innovation-Decision Process: Dissemination and Adoption of a Motivational Interviewing Preparatory Procedure in Addiction Outpatient Clinics

PubMed Central

Walitzer, Kimberly S.; Dermen, Kurt H.; Barrick, Christopher; Shyhalla, Kathleen

2015-01-01

Widespread adoption of empirically-supported treatment innovations has the potential to improve effectiveness of treatment received by individuals with substance use disorders. However, the process of disseminating such innovations has been complex, slow, and difficult. We empirically describe the dissemination and adoption of a treatment innovation – an alcohol-treatment preparatory therapeutic procedure based on motivational interviewing (MI) – in the context of Rogers’ (2003) five stages of innovation-decision process (knowledge, persuasion, decision, implementation and confirmation). To this end, 145 randomly-chosen outpatient addiction treatment clinics in New York State received an onsite visit from a project trainer delivering one of three randomly-assigned dissemination intensities: a 15-minute, a half-day or a full-day presentation. Across these clinics, 141 primary administrators and 837 clinicians completed questionnaires assessing aspects of five innovation-decision stages. At each clinic, questionnaire administration occurred immediately pre- and post-dissemination, as well as one and six months after dissemination. Consistent with Rogers’ theory, earlier stages of the innovation-decision process predicted later stages. As hypothesized, dissemination intensity predicted clinicians’ post-dissemination knowledge. Clinician baseline characteristics (including gender, pre-dissemination knowledge regarding the MI preparatory technique, education, case load, beliefs regarding the nature of alcohol problems, and beliefs and behavior with regard to therapeutic style) predicted knowledge and persuasion stage variables. One baseline clinic characteristic (i.e., clinic mean beliefs and behavior regarding an MI-consistent therapeutic style) predicted implementation stage variables. Findings suggest that dissemination strategies should accommodate clinician and clinic characteristics. PMID:25934460

How Do Patients and Parents Decide for Orthodontic Treatment-Effects of Malocclusion, Personal Expectations, Education and Media.

PubMed

Tuncer, C; Canigur Bavbek, N; Balos Tuncer, B; Ayhan Bani, A; Çelik, B

2015-01-01

To examine patients' and parents' perceptions and expectations from orthodontic treatment. 491 patients (274 female, 217 male) aged 14-22 years, and 399 parents (245 female, 154 male) completed a questionnaire about preferences, needs and expectations about orthodontic treatment, and scored the present problem. Continuous variables were compared by Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis tests, whereas Chi-square test was used for categorical variables. Patients'(77.1%) and parents'(84.6%), decision about orthodontic treatments were influenced by suggestion of dentists. Patients who decided to attend to clinic by themselves were higher than parents (p=0.006). Dental aesthetics was the determinant factor for treatment demand for patients(61.0%) and parents(57.3%). Improvement in oral functions was more important for Class III patients than Class I patients (p=0.040). Adult patients/parents with higher education gave more importance to oral functions as well as dental aesthetics (p=0.031). There was no difference among Angle classifications regarding orthodontic problem scores. Parents found media sources valuable (p=0.018) but majority expected dentists for information about orthodontic treatments. Education degree of adult patients/parents effected this decision(p=0.002). Desire to have better dental aesthetics was the primary motivating factor for all participants. Clinicians should consider concerns of Class III patients about oral functions during treatment planning.

Pitfalls of Counterfactual Thinking in Medical Practice: Preventing Errors by Using More Functional Reference Points

PubMed Central

Petrocelli, John V.

2013-01-01

Background Counterfactual thinking involves mentally simulating alternatives to reality. The current article reviews literature pertaining to the relevance counterfactual thinking has for the quality of medical decision making. Although earlier counterfactual thought research concluded that counterfactuals have important benefits for the individual, there are reasons to believe that counterfactual thinking is also associated with dysfunctional consequences. Of particular focus is whether or not medical experience, and its influence on counterfactual thinking, actually informs or improves medical practice. It is hypothesized that relatively more probable decision alternatives, followed by undesirable outcomes and counterfactual thought responses, can be abandoned for relatively less probable decision alternatives. Design and Methods Building on earlier research demonstrating that counterfactual thinking can impede memory and learning in a decision paradigm with undergraduate students, the current study examines the extent to which earlier findings can be generalized to practicing physicians (N=10). Participants were asked to complete 60 trials of a computerized Monty Hall Problem simulation. Learning by experience was operationalized as the frequency of switch-decisions. Results Although some learning was evidenced by a general increase in switch-decision frequency across block trials, the extent of learning demonstrated was not ideal, nor practical. Conclusions A simple, multiple-trial, decision paradigm demonstrated that doctors fail to learn basic decision-outcome associations through experience. An agenda for future research, which tests the functionality of reference points (other than counterfactual alternatives) for the purposes of medical decision making, is proposed. Significance for public health The quality of healthcare depends heavily on the judgments and decisions made by doctors and other medical professionals. Findings from this research indicate that doctors fail to learn basic decision-outcome associations through experience, as evidenced by the sample’s tendency to select the optimal decision strategy in only 50% of 60 trials (each of which was followed by veridical feedback). These findings suggest that professional experience is unlikely to enhance the quality of medical decision making. Thus, this research has implications for understanding how doctors’ reactions to medical outcomes shape their judgments and affect the degree to which their future treatment intentions are consistent with clinical practice guidelines. The current research is integrated with earlier research on counter-factual thinking, which appears to be a primary element inhibiting the learning of decision-outcome associations. An agenda for future research is proposed. PMID:25170495

Users report for the Northern Great Plains.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waltz, F. A.; Myers, V. I.; Heinemann, L. R.

1973-01-01

The applications of remote-sensing techniques offer new approaches to many of the present-day problems encountered by various state agencies in South Dakota. The study was completed in three phases. The first report presented the information needs of the state agencies and educational efforts; the second defined the data handling procedures for fulfilling the applications; and the third phase was a development of a dynamic information dissemination plan on a state-wide basis. Aircraft data, satellite imagery, and other remotely sensed information are valuable for decision-making processes. A design for an organization to acquire for the state the advantages of remote-sensing systems for resources research and management has been developed.

Apollo experience report: Launch escape propulsion subsystem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Townsend, N. A.

1973-01-01

The Apollo launch escape propulsion subsystem contained three solid rocket motors. The general design, development, and qualification of the solid-propellant pitch-control, tower-jettison, and launch-escape motors of the Apollo launch escape propulsion subsystem were completed during years 1961 to 1966. The launch escape system components are described in general terms, and the sequence of events through the ground-based test programs and flight-test programs is discussed. The initial ground rules established for this system were that it should use existing technology and designs as much as possible. The practicality of this decision is proved by the minimum number of problems that were encountered during the development and qualification program.

The design of a common lunar lander

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Driggers, Dan; Hearrell, Sean; Key, Kevin; Le, Brian; Love, Glen; Mcmullen, Rob; Messec, Scott; Ruhnke, Jim

1991-01-01

The Austin Cynthesis Corporation was formed to respond to a Request for Proposal for the design of a Common Lunar Lander (CLL) capable of carrying lightweight (less than 500 kg), unspecified payload to the moon. This Final Design Report Document includes information on the requirements for the design project; the ideas proposed as solutions to the design problem; the work which has been completed in support of the design effort; justifications, validations, and verifications of decisions made during the project; and suggestions for future work to be done in support of the project. A project schedule, including current status of the items included on the schedule, as well as cost and management summaries is also included.

Cognitive Competence as a Positive Youth Development Construct: A Conceptual Review

PubMed Central

Sun, Rachel C. F.; Hui, Eadaoin K. P.

2012-01-01

This paper focuses on discussing critical thinking and creative thinking as the core cognitive competence. It reviews and compares several theories of thinking, highlights the features of critical thinking and creative thinking, and delineates their interrelationships. It discusses cognitive competence as a positive youth development construct by linking its relationships with adolescent development and its contributions to adolescents' learning and wellbeing. Critical thinking and creative thinking are translated into self-regulated cognitive skills for adolescents to master and capitalize on, so as to facilitate knowledge construction, task completion, problem solving, and decision making. Ways of fostering these thinking skills, cognitive competence, and ultimately positive youth development are discussed. PMID:22654575

An Interactive Model of Career Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Amundson, Norman E.

1995-01-01

The decision-making model described highlights the interaction between contextual factors, decision triggers, establishing a frame of the problem, reframing, and action planning. The interactive perspective is based on process and change. Career counseling with an interactive decision-making approach requires an acknowledgment of external…

The Relationship of Decision-Making Styles and Attributional Styles in Addicted and Non-addicted Men.

PubMed

Shaghaghy, Farhad; Saffarinia, Majid; Iranpoor, Mohadeseh; Soltanynejad, Ali

2011-01-01

One of social problems which has affected our society and resulted in problems for different groups of people is drug abuse. This issue indicates a serious psychological, physical and social problem in community. Social skills have positive and successful influences in prevention of substance abuse. This includes the ability to explain events correctly and then appropriate decision making. This study compares decision making styles and attributional styles between addicted and non addicted men to recognize their role in addiction. In this study, 200 addicted and non addicted men were randomly selected. Decision-making style and attributional style questionnaires were used. Data analysis was performed by independent Student's t and Pearson correlation tests. The study population included 81 addicted and 90 non-addicted men. Addicted and non addicted men were significantly different in rational decision-making style (P < 0.05). Negative relationship was found between rational decision making and optimistic attribution style (r = -0.305, P < 0.01) and direct relationship was found between rational decision making and learned helplessness (r = 0.309, P < 0.01). Our study showed that addicts are less rational in decision making and addicts that developed learned helplessness were less rational and did not have optimistic attribution style. These issues show that addiction institutions and therapists have to pay attention to cognitive factors for addiction prevention.

Timing of Advance Directive Completion and Relationship to Care Preferences.

PubMed

Enguidanos, Susan; Ailshire, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Given recent Medicare rules reimbursing clinicians for engaging in advance care planning, there is heightened need to understand factors associated with the timing of advance directive (AD) completion before death and how the timing impacts care decisions. The purpose of this study was to investigate patterns in timing of AD completion and the relationship between timing and documented care preferences. We hypothesize that ADs completed late in the course of illness or very early in the disease trajectory will reflect higher preferences for aggressive care. We conducted a retrospective study using logistic regressions to analyze data from the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative longitudinal survey of older adults. The analytic sample included exit interviews conducted from 2000 to 2012 among 2904 proxy reporters of deceased participants who had an AD. Nearly three-quarters (71%) of ADs were completed a year or more before death. Being younger or a racial/ethnic minority, and having lower education, a diagnosis of cancer or lung disease, and an expected death were associated with completing an AD within the three months before death, while having the lowest quartile of assets and memory problems were inversely associated with AD completion. Minorities, those with lower education, expected death, and timing of AD completion were associated with electing aggressive care. Early documentation of care wishes may not be associated with an increased likelihood of electing aggressive care; however, ADs completed in the last months of life have higher rates of election of aggressive care. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A robust optimisation approach to the problem of supplier selection and allocation in outsourcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Yelin; Keung Lai, Kin; Liang, Liang

2016-03-01

We formulate the supplier selection and allocation problem in outsourcing under an uncertain environment as a stochastic programming problem. Both the decision-maker's attitude towards risk and the penalty parameters for demand deviation are considered in the objective function. A service level agreement, upper bound for each selected supplier's allocation and the number of selected suppliers are considered as constraints. A novel robust optimisation approach is employed to solve this problem under different economic situations. Illustrative examples are presented with managerial implications highlighted to support decision-making.

Improving multi-objective reservoir operation optimization with sensitivity-informed problem decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, J. G.; Zhang, C.; Fu, G. T.; Li, Y.; Zhou, H. C.

2015-04-01

This study investigates the effectiveness of a sensitivity-informed method for multi-objective operation of reservoir systems, which uses global sensitivity analysis as a screening tool to reduce the computational demands. Sobol's method is used to screen insensitive decision variables and guide the formulation of the optimization problems with a significantly reduced number of decision variables. This sensitivity-informed problem decomposition dramatically reduces the computational demands required for attaining high quality approximations of optimal tradeoff relationships between conflicting design objectives. The search results obtained from the reduced complexity multi-objective reservoir operation problems are then used to pre-condition the full search of the original optimization problem. In two case studies, the Dahuofang reservoir and the inter-basin multi-reservoir system in Liaoning province, China, sensitivity analysis results show that reservoir performance is strongly controlled by a small proportion of decision variables. Sensitivity-informed problem decomposition and pre-conditioning are evaluated in their ability to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of multi-objective evolutionary optimization. Overall, this study illustrates the efficiency and effectiveness of the sensitivity-informed method and the use of global sensitivity analysis to inform problem decomposition when solving the complex multi-objective reservoir operation problems.

A Multi-layer Dynamic Model for Coordination Based Group Decision Making in Water Resource Allocation and Scheduling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wei; Zhang, Xingnan; Li, Chenming; Wang, Jianying

Management of group decision-making is an important issue in water source management development. In order to overcome the defects in lacking of effective communication and cooperation in the existing decision-making models, this paper proposes a multi-layer dynamic model for coordination in water resource allocation and scheduling based group decision making. By introducing the scheme-recognized cooperative satisfaction index and scheme-adjusted rationality index, the proposed model can solve the problem of poor convergence of multi-round decision-making process in water resource allocation and scheduling. Furthermore, the problem about coordination of limited resources-based group decision-making process can be solved based on the effectiveness of distance-based group of conflict resolution. The simulation results show that the proposed model has better convergence than the existing models.

Choices, choices: the application of multi-criteria decision analysis to a food safety decision-making problem.

PubMed

Fazil, A; Rajic, A; Sanchez, J; McEwen, S

2008-11-01

In the food safety arena, the decision-making process can be especially difficult. Decision makers are often faced with social and fiscal pressures when attempting to identify an appropriate balance among several choices. Concurrently, policy and decision makers in microbial food safety are under increasing pressure to demonstrate that their policies and decisions are made using transparent and accountable processes. In this article, we present a multi-criteria decision analysis approach that can be used to address the problem of trying to select a food safety intervention while balancing various criteria. Criteria that are important when selecting an intervention were determined, as a result of an expert consultation, to include effectiveness, cost, weight of evidence, and practicality associated with the interventions. The multi-criteria decision analysis approach we present is able to consider these criteria and arrive at a ranking of interventions. It can also provide a clear justification for the ranking as well as demonstrate to stakeholders, through a scenario analysis approach, how to potentially converge toward common ground. While this article focuses on the problem of selecting food safety interventions, the range of applications in the food safety arena is truly diverse and can be a significant tool in assisting decisions that need to be coherent, transparent, and justifiable. Most importantly, it is a significant contributor when there is a need to strike a fine balance between various potentially competing alternatives and/or stakeholder groups.

Linearly Adjustable International Portfolios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonseca, R. J.; Kuhn, D.; Rustem, B.

2010-09-01

We present an approach to multi-stage international portfolio optimization based on the imposition of a linear structure on the recourse decisions. Multiperiod decision problems are traditionally formulated as stochastic programs. Scenario tree based solutions however can become intractable as the number of stages increases. By restricting the space of decision policies to linear rules, we obtain a conservative tractable approximation to the original problem. Local asset prices and foreign exchange rates are modelled separately, which allows for a direct measure of their impact on the final portfolio value.

A Diagnostic Taxonomy of Adult Career Problems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Robert E.; Cellini, James V.

1981-01-01

Developed a taxonomy for the differential diagnosis of adult career development problems. Problem categories identified were: (1) problems in career decision making; (2) problems in implementing career plans; (3) problems in organizational/institutional performance; and (4) problems in organizational/institutional adaption. (Author)

Patient satisfaction and aesthetic outcomes after ear reconstruction with a Branemark-type, bone-anchored, ear prosthesis: a 16 year review.

PubMed

Younis, Ibby; Gault, David; Sabbagh, Walid; Kang, Norbert V

2010-10-01

Reconstruction of the human ear with a bone-anchored prosthesis is a widely accepted alternative when autologous reconstruction is technically impossible or declined by the individual. However, there are relatively few data in the literature documenting patient satisfaction with this form of reconstruction. This study examines different aspects of patient satisfaction using an eighteen-point postal questionnaire to measure patient outcomes against a Likert rating scale. The questionnaire was sent to 33 patients who completed prosthetic ear reconstruction over a 16 year period at a specialist plastic surgery unit in the United Kingdom. Medical case notes for these cases were also reviewed. Twenty completed questionnaires were returned. The response rate was 61%. The majority of patients were satisfied with the aesthetics, ease of handling and comfort of the bone-anchored implant and prosthesis. However, the majority of patients was only moderately satisfied or was dissatisfied with this method of reconstruction. Specifically, 15 of the respondents reported skin problems around the abutments of the bone-anchored implant with 10 patients reporting ongoing skin complications. Granulation tissue was the most common skin problem (12 cases) followed by local infection (10 cases). Interestingly, despite the chronic skin problems, most patients indicated that they would undergo the same procedure again or would recommend it to others. Our survey shows that patients fitted with a Branemark-type bone-anchored implant for ear reconstruction are pleased with the aesthetic appearance but experience multiple, chronic, skin complications and other implant related problems. These affect their satisfaction with this method of reconstruction. Our findings may have significant implications for patients and surgeons considering this form of reconstruction and for the institutions making decisions about funding this treatment. Copyright 2009. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Effects of a Brief Interest Inventory Intervention on Career Decision Self-Efficacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Isik, Erkan

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of a brief interest inventory intervention on career decision self-efficacy in an undergraduate sample. A pretest-posttest equivalent group design compared students who completed an interest inventory and participated in two sessions of its interpretation, students who only completed an interest…

Solving multi-leader-common-follower games.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leyffer, S.; Munson, T.; Mathematics and Computer Science

Multi-leader-common-follower games arise when modelling two or more competitive firms, the leaders, that commit to their decisions prior to another group of competitive firms, the followers, that react to the decisions made by the leaders. These problems lead in a natural way to equilibrium problems with equilibrium constraints (EPECs). We develop a characterization of the solution sets for these problems and examine a variety of nonlinear optimization and nonlinear complementarity formulations of EPECs. We distinguish two broad cases: problems where the leaders can cost-differentiate and problems with price-consistent followers. We demonstrate the practical viability of our approach by solving amore » range of medium-sized test problems.« less

Group decision-making techniques for natural resource management applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coughlan, Beth A.K.; Armour, Carl L.

1992-01-01

This report is an introduction to decision analysis and problem-solving techniques for professionals in natural resource management. Although these managers are often called upon to make complex decisions, their training in the natural sciences seldom provides exposure to the decision-making tools developed in management science. Our purpose is to being to fill this gap. We present a general analysis of the pitfalls of group problem solving, and suggestions for improved interactions followed by the specific techniques. Selected techniques are illustrated. The material is easy to understand and apply without previous training or excessive study and is applicable to natural resource management issues.

Political ideology and labor arbitrators' decision making in work-family conflict cases.

PubMed

Biernat, Monica; Malin, Martin H

2008-07-01

Labor arbitrators were asked to render decisions about grievances brought by employees who had been fired because of problems created by work conflicts with family responsibilities. The study examined the effects of experimentally manipulated grievant attributes (gender, type of work-family conflict) as well as arbitrator attributes (gender, political ideology) on decision making. When employees were depicted as having had child care problems, liberal arbitrators tended to favor female over male grievants, and political conservatism predicted more favorable judgments rendered toward male grievants. Overall, the data suggest that child care responsibilities cue different patterns of gender bias among liberal and conservative decision makers.

On Decision-Making Among Multiple Rule-Bases in Fuzzy Control Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tunstel, Edward; Jamshidi, Mo

1997-01-01

Intelligent control of complex multi-variable systems can be a challenge for single fuzzy rule-based controllers. This class of problems cam often be managed with less difficulty by distributing intelligent decision-making amongst a collection of rule-bases. Such an approach requires that a mechanism be chosen to ensure goal-oriented interaction between the multiple rule-bases. In this paper, a hierarchical rule-based approach is described. Decision-making mechanisms based on generalized concepts from single-rule-based fuzzy control are described. Finally, the effects of different aggregation operators on multi-rule-base decision-making are examined in a navigation control problem for mobile robots.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis with Influence Diagrams.

PubMed

Arias, M; Díez, F J

2015-01-01

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is used increasingly in medicine to determine whether the health benefit of an intervention is worth the economic cost. Decision trees, the standard decision modeling technique for non-temporal domains, can only perform CEA for very small problems. To develop a method for CEA in problems involving several dozen variables. We explain how to build influence diagrams (IDs) that explicitly represent cost and effectiveness. We propose an algorithm for evaluating cost-effectiveness IDs directly, i.e., without expanding an equivalent decision tree. The evaluation of an ID returns a set of intervals for the willingness to pay - separated by cost-effectiveness thresholds - and, for each interval, the cost, the effectiveness, and the optimal intervention. The algorithm that evaluates the ID directly is in general much more efficient than the brute-force method, which is in turn more efficient than the expansion of an equivalent decision tree. Using OpenMarkov, an open-source software tool that implements this algorithm, we have been able to perform CEAs on several IDs whose equivalent decision trees contain millions of branches. IDs can perform CEA on large problems that cannot be analyzed with decision trees.

Multiple stakeholders in multi-criteria decision-making in the context of Municipal Solid Waste Management: A review.

PubMed

Soltani, Atousa; Hewage, Kasun; Reza, Bahareh; Sadiq, Rehan

2015-01-01

Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) is a complicated process that involves multiple environmental and socio-economic criteria. Decision-makers look for decision support frameworks that can guide in defining alternatives, relevant criteria and their weights, and finding a suitable solution. In addition, decision-making in MSWM problems such as finding proper waste treatment locations or strategies often requires multiple stakeholders such as government, municipalities, industries, experts, and/or general public to get involved. Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is the most popular framework employed in previous studies on MSWM; MCDA methods help multiple stakeholders evaluate the often conflicting criteria, communicate their different preferences, and rank or prioritize MSWM strategies to finally agree on some elements of these strategies and make an applicable decision. This paper reviews and brings together research on the application of MCDA for solving MSWM problems with more focus on the studies that have considered multiple stakeholders and offers solutions for such problems. Results of this study show that AHP is the most common approach in consideration of multiple stakeholders and experts and governments/municipalities are the most common participants in these studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic Factors of Individual Differences in Decision Making in Economic Behavior: A Japanese Twin Study using the Allais Problem.

PubMed

Shikishima, Chizuru; Hiraishi, Kai; Yamagata, Shinji; Ando, Juko; Okada, Mitsuhiro

2015-01-01

Why does decision making differ among individuals? People sometimes make seemingly inconsistent decisions with lower expected (monetary) utility even when objective information of probabilities and reward are provided. It is noteworthy, however, that a certain proportion of people do not provide anomalous responses, choosing the alternatives with higher expected utility, thus appearing to be more "rational." We investigated the genetic and environmental influences on these types of individual differences in decision making using a classical Allais problem task. Participants were 1,199 Japanese adult twins aged 20-47. Univariate genetic analysis revealed that approximately a third of the Allais problem response variance was explained by genetic factors and the rest by environmental factors unique to individuals and measurement error. The environmental factor shared between families did not contribute to the variance. Subsequent multivariate genetic analysis clarified that decision making using the expected utility theory was associated with general intelligence and that the association was largely mediated by the same genetic factor. We approach the mechanism underlying two types of "rational" decision making from the perspective of genetic correlations with cognitive abilities.

Application of decision science to resilience management in Jamaica Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell; Fuller, Angela K.; Johnson, Fred A.; Hare, M. P.; Stedman, Richard C.; Sanderson, E.W.; Solecki, W. D.; Waldman, J.R.; Paris, A. S.

2016-01-01

This book highlights the growing interest in management interventions designed to enhance the resilience of the Jamaica Bay socio-ecological system. Effective management, whether the focus is on managing biological processes or human behavior or (most likely) both, requires decision makers to anticipate how the managed system will respond to interventions (i.e., via predictions or projections). In systems characterized by many interacting components and high uncertainty, making probabilistic predictions is often difficult and requires careful thinking not only about system dynamics, but also about how management objectives are specified and the analytic method used to select the preferred action(s). Developing a clear statement of the problem(s) and articulation of management objectives is often best achieved by including input from managers, scientists and other stakeholders affected by the decision through a process of joint problem framing (Marcot and others 2012; Keeney and others 1990). Using a deliberate, coherent and transparent framework for deciding among management alternatives to best meet these objectives then ensures a greater likelihood for successful intervention. Decision science provides the theoretical and practical basis for developing this framework and applying decision analysis methods for making complex decisions under uncertainty and risk.

Administrative Technology and the School Executive: Applying the Systems Approach to Educational Administration.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knezevich, Stephen J., Ed.

In this era of rapid social change, educational administrators have discovered that new approaches to problem solving and decision making are needed. Systems analysis could afford a promising approach to administrative problems by providing a number of systematic techniques designed to sharpen administrative decision making, enhance efficiency,…

Development and Technical Characteristics of a Team Decision-Making Assessment Tool: Decision Observation, Recording, and Analysis (DORA)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algozzine, Bob; Newton, J. Stephen; Horner, Robert H.; Todd, Anne W.; Algozzine, Kate

2012-01-01

Problem solving is fundamental to psychoeducational assessment practices and generally grounded in activities related to identifying problems, developing and refining hypotheses, generating solutions, developing and implementing actions, and evaluating outcomes. While the process is central to response-to-intervention practices as well, little…

"Breaking the Mold" in the Dissertation: Implementing a Problem-Based, Decision-Oriented Thesis Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Archbald, Doug

2010-01-01

This article offers lessons from an initiative refashioning the doctoral thesis in an education leadership program. The program serves a practitioner clientele; most are teachers and administrators. The new model for the thesis emphasizes leadership, problem solving, decision making, and organizational improvement. The former model was a…

Developing Environmental Decision-making in Middle School Classes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rowland, Paul McD.; Adkins, Carol R.

This paper presents Rowland's Ways of Knowing and Decision-making Model for curriculum development and how it can be applied to environmental education curricula. The model uses a problem solving approach based on steps of: (1) coming to know the problem through the ways of knowing of the disciplines and personal knowledge; (2) proposing solutions…

A Decision Support System for Solving Multiple Criteria Optimization Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Filatovas, Ernestas; Kurasova, Olga

2011-01-01

In this paper, multiple criteria optimization has been investigated. A new decision support system (DSS) has been developed for interactive solving of multiple criteria optimization problems (MOPs). The weighted-sum (WS) approach is implemented to solve the MOPs. The MOPs are solved by selecting different weight coefficient values for the criteria…

Shared Decision Making in Education Governance Using Business Portals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peoples, Adrian L.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to address a high-volume problem for the Delaware Department of Education Office of Professional Accountability (OPA). This problem was addressed by sharing the certification decision with qualified personnel located at each of the four teacher preparation programs located in Delaware at Delaware State University…

Student Debt, Problem-Solving, and Decision-Making of Adult Learners: A Basic Qualitative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brooks, William J.

2013-01-01

A basic qualitative research study was conducted to develop insights into how adult learners employ problem-solving and decision-making (PSDM), when considering college financing, student loans, and student debt. Using the social media Website Facebook, eight qualified participants were recruited. Participants were interviewed via telephone, and…

Assessment of Competence in Clinical Reasoning and Decision-Making under Uncertainty: The Script Concordance Test Method

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramaekers, Stephan; Kremer, Wim; Pilot, Albert; van Beukelen, Peter; van Keulen, Hanno

2010-01-01

Real-life, complex problems often require that decisions are made despite limited information or insufficient time to explore all relevant aspects. Incorporating authentic uncertainties into an assessment, however, poses problems in establishing results and analysing their methodological qualities. This study aims at developing a test on clinical…

"Discovering the Cell": An Educational Game about Cell and Molecular Biology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spiegel, Carolina N.; Alves, Gutemberg G.; Cardona, Tania da S.; Melim, Leandra M. C.; Luz, Mauricio R. M. P.; Araujo-Jorge, Tania C.; Henriques-Pons, Andrea

2008-01-01

The role of games within education becomes clearer as students become more active and are able to take decisions, solve problems and react to the results of those decisions. The educational board game "Discovering the Cell" ("Celula Adentro"), is based on problem-solving learning. This investigative game attempts to stimulate…

The quandaries and promise of risk management: a scientist's perspective on integration of science and management.

Treesearch

B.G. Marcot

2007-01-01

This paper briefly lists constraints and problems of traditional approaches to natural resource risk analysis and risk management. Such problems include disparate definitions of risk, multiple and conflicting objectives and decisions, conflicting interpretations of uncertainty, and failure of articulating decision criteria, risk attitudes, modeling assumptions, and...

Decision theory for computing variable and value ordering decisions for scheduling problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Linden, Theodore A.

1993-01-01

Heuristics that guide search are critical when solving large planning and scheduling problems, but most variable and value ordering heuristics are sensitive to only one feature of the search state. One wants to combine evidence from all features of the search state into a subjective probability that a value choice is best, but there has been no solid semantics for merging evidence when it is conceived in these terms. Instead, variable and value ordering decisions should be viewed as problems in decision theory. This led to two key insights: (1) The fundamental concept that allows heuristic evidence to be merged is the net incremental utility that will be achieved by assigning a value to a variable. Probability distributions about net incremental utility can merge evidence from the utility function, binary constraints, resource constraints, and other problem features. The subjective probability that a value is the best choice is then derived from probability distributions about net incremental utility. (2) The methods used for rumor control in Bayesian Networks are the primary way to prevent cycling in the computation of probable net incremental utility. These insights lead to semantically justifiable ways to compute heuristic variable and value ordering decisions that merge evidence from all available features of the search state.

A framework for multi-stakeholder decision-making and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We propose a decision-making framework to compute compromise solutions that balance conflicting priorities of multiple stakeholders on multiple objectives. In our setting, we shape the stakeholder dis-satisfaction distribution by solving a conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) minimization problem. The CVaR problem is parameterized by a probability level that shapes the tail of the dissatisfaction distribution. The proposed approach allows us to compute a family of compromise solutions and generalizes multi-stakeholder settings previously proposed in the literature that minimize average and worst-case dissatisfactions. We use the concept of the CVaR norm to give a geometric interpretation to this problem +and use the properties of this norm to prove that the CVaR minimization problem yields Pareto optimal solutions for any choice of the probability level. We discuss a broad range of potential applications of the framework that involve complex decision-making processes. We demonstrate the developments using a biowaste facility location case study in which we seek to balance stakeholder priorities on transportation, safety, water quality, and capital costs. This manuscript describes the methodology of a new decision-making framework that computes compromise solutions that balance conflicting priorities of multiple stakeholders on multiple objectives as needed for SHC Decision Science and Support Tools project. A biowaste facility location is employed as the case study

Cynefin as Reference Framework to Facilitate Insight and Decision-Making in Complex Contexts of Biomedical Research.

PubMed

Kempermann, Gerd

2017-01-01

The Cynefin scheme is a concept of knowledge management, originally devised to support decision making in management, but more generally applicable to situations, in which complexity challenges the quality of insight, prediction, and decision. Despite the fact that life itself, and especially the brain and its diseases, are complex to the extent that complexity could be considered their cardinal feature, complex problems in biomedicine are often treated as if they were actually not more than the complicated sum of solvable sub-problems. Because of the emergent properties of complex contexts this is not correct. With a set of clear criteria Cynefin helps to set apart complex problems from "simple/obvious," "complicated," "chaotic," and "disordered" contexts in order to avoid misinterpreting the relevant causality structures. The distinction comes with the insight, which specific kind of knowledge is possible in each of these categories and what are the consequences for resulting decisions and actions. From student's theses over the publication and grant writing process to research politics, misinterpretation of complexity can have problematic or even dangerous consequences, especially in clinical contexts. Conceptualization of problems within a straightforward reference language like Cynefin improves clarity and stringency within projects and facilitates communication and decision-making about them.

Creating Impact with Operations Research in Health: Making Room for Practice in Academia

PubMed Central

Brandeau, Margaret L.

2015-01-01

Operations research (OR)-based analyses have the potential to improve decision making for many important, real-world health care problems. However, junior scholars often avoid working on practical applications in health because promotion and tenure processes tend to value theoretical studies more highly than applied studies. This paper discusses the author's experiences in using OR to inform and influence decisions in health and provides a blueprint for junior researchers who wish to find success by taking a similar path. This involves selecting good problems to study, forming productive collaborations with domain experts, developing appropriate models, identifying the most salient results from an analysis, and effectively disseminating findings to decision makers. The paper then suggests how journals, funding agencies, and senior academics can encourage such work by taking a broader and more informed view of the potential role and contributions of OR to solving health care problems. Making room in academia for the application of OR in health follows in the tradition begun by the founders of operations research: to work on important real-world problems where operations research can contribute to better decision making. PMID:26003321

Effect of framing on adolescents' decision making.

PubMed

Chien, Y C; Lin, C; Worthley, J

1996-12-01

92 young adolescents were tested using Tversky and Kahneman's (1981) decision problems for framing effects. A notable number of young adolescents tested were not influenced by the context of the decision problems, thus they selected the same response option for positively and negatively framed problems. Parallel information was not available in Tversky and Kahneman's study for adults because they used a between-subjects design. However, for present adolescents who selected different response options for different framing problems, the response pattern exhibited by them resembled the general pattern exhibited by the adults tested in Tversky and Kahneman's study-negative frames led them to accept risk to avoid certain loss; positive frames prevented them from risking what they were certain to gain. Boys and girls were similar in their susceptibility to framing effects as were honors students in mathematics as compared to nonhonors students. Although the positive vs negative framing only influenced some of the young adolescents tested in this study, because the influence was consistent, researchers and educators interested in adolescents' decisions involving risky choices might use framing principles to design and assess cognitive interventions for high-risk behaviors among young adolescents.

Ovarian tissue cryopreservation (OTC) in prepubertal girls and young women: an analysis of parents' and patients' decision-making.

PubMed

Sullivan-Pyke, Chantae S; Carlson, Claire A; Prewitt, Maureen; Gracia, Clarisa R; Ginsberg, Jill P

2018-04-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the decision-making influences, perceived level of control over decision-making, and mood states of parents and patients who were offered OTC prior to gonadotoxic therapy. Parents and patients, at least 12 years old, who required gonadotoxic therapy and were offered OTC prior to therapy, were asked to complete questionnaires. Two validated instruments were also used: the Decision-Making Control Instrument (DMCI) and the Profile of Mood States (POMS). The factors that influenced decision-making were compared using Student's t test, and the scores of DMCI and POMS were compared using the Mann-Whitney test. Thirty-six parents and 16 patients who elected ovarian tissue cryopreservation (OTC) completed questionnaires. Five parents who declined OTC also completed questionnaires. Accepters thought OTC was a good idea and that, in the future, science would enable cryopreserved ovarian tissue to be used to restore fertility (100% parents, 93.8% patients). Among accepters, the desire for genetically related children and prevention of the stress of infertility drove parents' and patients' decisions (90.9 and 100%, respectively). The desire to prevent the stress of infertility was important to parents, but patients were less likely to report that a desire to prevent the stress of infertility factored into their decision-making (66.7 vs. 50.0%; p < 0.001). All respondents felt in control of their decision and displayed low levels of mood disturbance. Though the decision to undergo experimental OTC is difficult and often urgent, this study suggests that families feel in control of their decision-making and report little emotional disturbance.

Experiments with a decision-theoretic scheduler

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansson, Othar; Holt, Gerhard; Mayer, Andrew

1992-01-01

This paper describes DTS, a decision-theoretic scheduler designed to employ state-of-the-art probabilistic inference technology to speed the search for efficient solutions to constraint-satisfaction problems. Our approach involves assessing the performance of heuristic control strategies that are normally hard-coded into scheduling systems, and using probabilistic inference to aggregate this information in light of features of a given problem. BPS, the Bayesian Problem-Solver, introduced a similar approach to solving single-agent and adversarial graph search problems, yielding orders-of-magnitude improvement over traditional techniques. Initial efforts suggest that similar improvements will be realizable when applied to typical constraint-satisfaction scheduling problems.

Supplier Selection Using Weighted Utility Additive Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karande, Prasad; Chakraborty, Shankar

2015-10-01

Supplier selection is a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem which mainly involves evaluating a number of available suppliers according to a set of common criteria for choosing the best one to meet the organizational needs. For any manufacturing or service organization, selecting the right upstream suppliers is a key success factor that will significantly reduce purchasing cost, increase downstream customer satisfaction and improve competitive ability. The past researchers have attempted to solve the supplier selection problem employing different MCDM techniques which involve active participation of the decision makers in the decision-making process. This paper deals with the application of weighted utility additive (WUTA) method for solving supplier selection problems. The WUTA method, an extension of utility additive approach, is based on ordinal regression and consists of building a piece-wise linear additive decision model from a preference structure using linear programming (LP). It adopts preference disaggregation principle and addresses the decision-making activities through operational models which need implicit preferences in the form of a preorder of reference alternatives or a subset of these alternatives present in the process. The preferential preorder provided by the decision maker is used as a restriction of a LP problem, which has its own objective function, minimization of the sum of the errors associated with the ranking of each alternative. Based on a given reference ranking of alternatives, one or more additive utility functions are derived. Using these utility functions, the weighted utilities for individual criterion values are combined into an overall weighted utility for a given alternative. It is observed that WUTA method, having a sound mathematical background, can provide accurate ranking to the candidate suppliers and choose the best one to fulfill the organizational requirements. Two real time examples are illustrated to prove its applicability and appropriateness in solving supplier selection problems.

Alternative Perspectives on Risk: Individual Differences in Problem Structuring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Fischer, Ute; Connors, Mary M. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

Team decision making involves contributions of multiple players toward a common goal. While much has been written about the importance of developing shared mental models in order for teams to work together effectively, little has been done to determine the value of alternative perspectives on problem solving and decision making. Early studies of expertise contrasted experts with novices and noted that the two groups differ in the way they structure problems and in their selection of information as salient. Little attention has been given to differences among experts who differ in their specializations. A series of experiments was conducted to determine: (1) what dimensions of flight-related problem situations pilots judge to be most important when making flight-relevant decisions; and (2) whether pilots in different crew positions differ in the way they interpret problems relating to flight decisions. A sorting task was used to identify underlying dimensions judged as salient to individual pilots. Captains, first officers, and flight engineers from two major carriers participated in the study. Twenty-two flight scenarios were developed based on ASRS reports. Pilots were required to make judgments about how they would respond in each case and to sort the scenarios on the basis of similarity of decision factors. They were also asked to provide a verbal label that described each of their sorted categories. A second study required a different group of pilots (also captains, first officers and flight engineers) to sort on predetermined bases.

The Wildland Fire Decision Support System: Integrating science, technology, and fire management

Treesearch

Morgan Pence; Tom Zimmerman

2011-01-01

Federal agency policy requires documentation and analysis of all wildland fire response decisions. In the past, planning and decision documentation for fires were completed using multiple unconnected processes, yielding many limitations. In response, interagency fire management executives chartered the development of the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS)....

Learning to Make Decisions Through Constructive Controversy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tjosvold, Dean

Students must make decisions about their lifestyle, future careers, academic pursuits, and classroom and school issues. Learning to make effective decisions for themselves and for society is an important aspect of competence. They can learn decision making through interacting and solving problems with others. A central ingredient for successful…

URBAN DECISION-MAKING, THE UNIVERSITY'S ROLE.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

BAILEY, STEPHEN K.

THE AUTHOR EXAMINES THE VARIOUS WAYS IN WHICH THE UNIVERSITY CAN AND SHOULD INFLUENCE URBAN DECISION MAKING. THE CENTRAL UNIVERSITY ROLE IS SENSITIZING THE DECISION MAKERS AND THE CITIZENS TO HUMAN MISERY, SUCH AS BIGOTRY, SQUALOR, DISEASE, UGLINESS, POVERTY, AND IGNORANCE. LONG-RANGE ROLES ARE PINPOINTING THE PROBLEMS URBAN DECISION MAKERS SHOULD…

Decision-Making Theory Applied to Architectural Programming: Some Research Implications.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Green, Meg

The implications of delineating and determining the sequence of programming decisions are shown in the selection of building committee membership. The role relationships of client and architect are discussed in terms of decision-making function. Decision tables are described as aids in problem analysis. Other topics include information and…

Decision-making and problem-solving methods in automation technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hankins, W. W.; Pennington, J. E.; Barker, L. K.

1983-01-01

The state of the art in the automation of decision making and problem solving is reviewed. The information upon which the report is based was derived from literature searches, visits to university and government laboratories performing basic research in the area, and a 1980 Langley Research Center sponsored conferences on the subject. It is the contention of the authors that the technology in this area is being generated by research primarily in the three disciplines of Artificial Intelligence, Control Theory, and Operations Research. Under the assumption that the state of the art in decision making and problem solving is reflected in the problems being solved, specific problems and methods of their solution are often discussed to elucidate particular aspects of the subject. Synopses of the following major topic areas comprise most of the report: (1) detection and recognition; (2) planning; and scheduling; (3) learning; (4) theorem proving; (5) distributed systems; (6) knowledge bases; (7) search; (8) heuristics; and (9) evolutionary programming.

Can a decision aid enable informed decisions in neonatal nursery recruitment for a fragile X newborn screening study?

PubMed

Bailey, Donald B; Bann, Carla; Bishop, Ellen; Guarda, Sonia; Barnum, Leah; Roche, Myra

2013-04-01

To determine whether a brochure based on principles of informed decision making improved attention to study materials or altered decisions made by parents invited to participate in a fragile X syndrome newborn screening study. A total of 1,323 families were invited to participate in a newborn screening study to identify infants with fragile X syndrome as well as premutation carrier infants. Of these families, 716 received the original project brochure and 607 were given a new decision aid brochure. Families were more likely to look at the new decision aid and mothers were more likely to read it completely, but the proportion of mothers who read the entire decision aid was only 14%. Families were more likely to rate the decision aid as very helpful. Consistent with informed decision making theory and research, participants receiving the decision aid brochure were less likely to agree to participate. The decision aid increased attention to and perceived helpfulness of educational information about the study, but most families did not read it completely. The study suggests that even well-designed study materials are not fully reviewed in the context of in-hospital postpartum study recruitment and may need to be accompanied by a research recruiter to obtain informed consent.

Hierarchical semi-numeric method for pairwise fuzzy group decision making.

PubMed

Marimin, M; Umano, M; Hatono, I; Tamura, H

2002-01-01

Gradual improvements to a single-level semi-numeric method, i.e., linguistic labels preference representation by fuzzy sets computation for pairwise fuzzy group decision making are summarized. The method is extended to solve multiple criteria hierarchical structure pairwise fuzzy group decision-making problems. The problems are hierarchically structured into focus, criteria, and alternatives. Decision makers express their evaluations of criteria and alternatives based on each criterion by using linguistic labels. The labels are converted into and processed in triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs). Evaluations of criteria yield relative criteria weights. Evaluations of the alternatives, based on each criterion, yield a degree of preference for each alternative or a degree of satisfaction for each preference value. By using a neat ordered weighted average (OWA) or a fuzzy weighted average operator, solutions obtained based on each criterion are aggregated into final solutions. The hierarchical semi-numeric method is suitable for solving a larger and more complex pairwise fuzzy group decision-making problem. The proposed method has been verified and applied to solve some real cases and is compared to Saaty's (1996) analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method.

A Z-number-based decision making procedure with ranking fuzzy numbers method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohamad, Daud; Shaharani, Saidatull Akma; Kamis, Nor Hanimah

2014-12-01

The theory of fuzzy set has been in the limelight of various applications in decision making problems due to its usefulness in portraying human perception and subjectivity. Generally, the evaluation in the decision making process is represented in the form of linguistic terms and the calculation is performed using fuzzy numbers. In 2011, Zadeh has extended this concept by presenting the idea of Z-number, a 2-tuple fuzzy numbers that describes the restriction and the reliability of the evaluation. The element of reliability in the evaluation is essential as it will affect the final result. Since this concept can still be considered as new, available methods that incorporate reliability for solving decision making problems is still scarce. In this paper, a decision making procedure based on Z-numbers is proposed. Due to the limitation of its basic properties, Z-numbers will be first transformed to fuzzy numbers for simpler calculations. A method of ranking fuzzy number is later used to prioritize the alternatives. A risk analysis problem is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed procedure.

The Optimal Observation Problem applied to a rating curve estimation including the "cost-to-wait"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raso, Luciano; Werner, Micha; Weijs, Steven

2013-04-01

In order to manage a system, a decision maker (DM) tries to make the best decision under uncertainty, having partial knowledge on the effects of his/her decision. Observations reduce uncertainty, but are costly. Deciding what to observe and when to stop observing is a complementary problem that the DM has to face. The Optimal Observation Problem (OOP) offers a solution to the questions: (1) which observation is more effective? And (2) Is the next observation worth its cost? We show an application of the OOP to a rating curve estimation in the White Carter River (Scotland). The cost of extra gauging is compensated by the value of better decisions, that reduce the costs due to floods. The observational decision is then whether to gauge, and when. In the application, we include the "cost-to-wait" in the cost structure. The Algorithm find thus an optimal trade-off between getting less informative data now or wait for more informative, but later. The OOP can be used to plan a measurement campaign, also taking into account that the rating curve can change.

Decision-Making and Problem-Solving Approaches in Pharmacy Education

PubMed Central

Martin, Lindsay C.; Holdford, David A.

2016-01-01

Domain 3 of the Center for the Advancement of Pharmacy Education (CAPE) 2013 Educational Outcomes recommends that pharmacy school curricula prepare students to be better problem solvers, but are silent on the type of problems they should be prepared to solve. We identified five basic approaches to problem solving in the curriculum at a pharmacy school: clinical, ethical, managerial, economic, and legal. These approaches were compared to determine a generic process that could be applied to all pharmacy decisions. Although there were similarities in the approaches, generic problem solving processes may not work for all problems. Successful problem solving requires identification of the problems faced and application of the right approach to the situation. We also advocate that the CAPE Outcomes make explicit the importance of different approaches to problem solving. Future pharmacists will need multiple approaches to problem solving to adapt to the complexity of health care. PMID:27170823

Decision-Making and Problem-Solving Approaches in Pharmacy Education.

PubMed

Martin, Lindsay C; Donohoe, Krista L; Holdford, David A

2016-04-25

Domain 3 of the Center for the Advancement of Pharmacy Education (CAPE) 2013 Educational Outcomes recommends that pharmacy school curricula prepare students to be better problem solvers, but are silent on the type of problems they should be prepared to solve. We identified five basic approaches to problem solving in the curriculum at a pharmacy school: clinical, ethical, managerial, economic, and legal. These approaches were compared to determine a generic process that could be applied to all pharmacy decisions. Although there were similarities in the approaches, generic problem solving processes may not work for all problems. Successful problem solving requires identification of the problems faced and application of the right approach to the situation. We also advocate that the CAPE Outcomes make explicit the importance of different approaches to problem solving. Future pharmacists will need multiple approaches to problem solving to adapt to the complexity of health care.

Dynamic Integration of Value Information into a Common Probability Currency as a Theory for Flexible Decision Making

PubMed Central

Christopoulos, Vassilios; Schrater, Paul R.

2015-01-01

Decisions involve two fundamental problems, selecting goals and generating actions to pursue those goals. While simple decisions involve choosing a goal and pursuing it, humans evolved to survive in hostile dynamic environments where goal availability and value can change with time and previous actions, entangling goal decisions with action selection. Recent studies suggest the brain generates concurrent action-plans for competing goals, using online information to bias the competition until a single goal is pursued. This creates a challenging problem of integrating information across diverse types, including both the dynamic value of the goal and the costs of action. We model the computations underlying dynamic decision-making with disparate value types, using the probability of getting the highest pay-off with the least effort as a common currency that supports goal competition. This framework predicts many aspects of decision behavior that have eluded a common explanation. PMID:26394299

Identifying Decision-Makers’ Science Needs for Adaptation to Climate-Related Impacts on Forest Ecosystem Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, E.; Lukas, J.

2009-12-01

Through the Western Water Assessment RISA program, we are conducting a research project that will produce science synthesis information to help local, state, and federal decision-makers in Colorado and Wyoming develop adaptation strategies to deal with climate-related threats to forest ecosystem services, in particular bark beetle infestations and stand-replacing wildfires. We begin by using the problem orientation framework, a policy sciences methodology, to understand how decision-makers can most effectively address policy problems that threaten the attainment of socially accepted goals. By applying this framework to the challenges facing decision-makers, we more accurately identify specific areas where scientific research can improve decision-making. WWA researchers will next begin to connect decision-makers with relevant scientific literature and identify specific areas of future scientific research that will be most effective at addressing their needs.

Fuzzy sets, rough sets, and modeling evidence: Theory and Application. A Dempster-Shafer based approach to compromise decision making with multiattributes applied to product selection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dekorvin, Andre

1992-01-01

The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is applied to a multiattribute decision making problem whereby the decision maker (DM) must compromise with available alternatives, none of which exactly satisfies his ideal. The decision mechanism is constrained by the uncertainty inherent in the determination of the relative importance of each attribute element and the classification of existing alternatives. The classification of alternatives is addressed through expert evaluation of the degree to which each element is contained in each available alternative. The relative importance of each attribute element is determined through pairwise comparisons of the elements by the decision maker and implementation of a ratio scale quantification method. Then the 'belief' and 'plausibility' that an alternative will satisfy the decision maker's ideal are calculated and combined to rank order the available alternatives. Application to the problem of selecting computer software is given.

Testing a Nursing-Specific Model of Electronic Patient Record documentation with regard to information completeness, comprehensiveness and consistency.

PubMed

von Krogh, Gunn; Nåden, Dagfinn; Aasland, Olaf Gjerløw

2012-10-01

To present the results from the test site application of the documentation model KPO (quality assurance, problem solving and caring) designed to impact the quality of nursing information in electronic patient record (EPR). The KPO model was developed by means of consensus group and clinical testing. Four documentation arenas and eight content categories, nursing terminologies and a decision-support system were designed to impact the completeness, comprehensiveness and consistency of nursing information. The testing was performed in a pre-test/post-test time series design, three times at a one-year interval. Content analysis of nursing documentation was accomplished through the identification, interpretation and coding of information units. Data from the pre-test and post-test 2 were subjected to statistical analyses. To estimate the differences, paired t-tests were used. At post-test 2, the information is found to be more complete, comprehensive and consistent than at pre-test. The findings indicate that documentation arenas combining work flow and content categories deduced from theories on nursing practice can influence the quality of nursing information. The KPO model can be used as guide when shifting from paper-based to electronic-based nursing documentation with the aim of obtaining complete, comprehensive and consistent nursing information. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Influence of cognitive style on information processing and selection of yogurt labels: Insights from an eye-tracking study.

PubMed

Mawad, Franco; Trías, Marcela; Giménez, Ana; Maiche, Alejandro; Ares, Gastón

2015-08-01

Cognitive styles are characteristic and stable ways in which people acquire, organize and use information for solving problems and making decisions. Field dependence/independence is one of the most studied cognitive styles. Field independent subjects are characterized by having less difficulty in separating information from its contextual surroundings and being less likely to be influenced by external cues than field dependent individuals. The present work aimed at studying the influence of field dependence/independence cognitive style on consumers' visual processing and choice of yogurt labels. One hundred and thirty three consumers completed a choice conjoint task. They were asked to select their preferred yogurt label from each of 16 pairs of labels. While they completed the task their eye movements were recorded using an eye-tracker. Then, consumers were asked to complete the Group Embedded Figure Test to determine their cognitive style. Consumers were divided into two groups with different cognitive styles: 58% of the sample was characterized as field dependent and 42% as field independent. When making their choices, field dependent consumers tended to engage in less thoughtful information processing than field independent consumers and they made fewer fixations on traditional nutritional information. Besides, cognitive style significantly affected the relative importance of fat and sugar content on consumer choices and modulated the influence of the traffic light system. Field dependent consumers gave less importance to the nutritional composition of the yogurts than field independent consumers for selecting their preferred label. Results from this work suggest that studying the psychological underpinnings of consumers' decision making process when selecting food products has a great potential to contribute to a better understanding of how eating patterns and consumer preferences are shaped. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Problem solving using soft systems methodology.

PubMed

Land, L

This article outlines a method of problem solving which considers holistic solutions to complex problems. Soft systems methodology allows people involved in the problem situation to have control over the decision-making process.

The Effect of Decision-Making Skill Training Programs on Self-Esteem and Decision-Making Styles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Colakkadioglu, Oguzhan; Celik, D. Billur

2016-01-01

Problem Statement: Decision making is a critical cognitive process in every area of human life. In this process, the individuals play an active role and obtain outputs with their functional use of decision-making skills. Therefore, the decision-making process can affect the course of life, life satisfaction, and the social relations of an…

Repeated causal decision making.

PubMed

Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

2013-01-01

Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

A python framework for environmental model uncertainty analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Jeremy; Fienen, Michael N.; Doherty, John E.

2016-01-01

We have developed pyEMU, a python framework for Environmental Modeling Uncertainty analyses, open-source tool that is non-intrusive, easy-to-use, computationally efficient, and scalable to highly-parameterized inverse problems. The framework implements several types of linear (first-order, second-moment (FOSM)) and non-linear uncertainty analyses. The FOSM-based analyses can also be completed prior to parameter estimation to help inform important modeling decisions, such as parameterization and objective function formulation. Complete workflows for several types of FOSM-based and non-linear analyses are documented in example notebooks implemented using Jupyter that are available in the online pyEMU repository. Example workflows include basic parameter and forecast analyses, data worth analyses, and error-variance analyses, as well as usage of parameter ensemble generation and management capabilities. These workflows document the necessary steps and provides insights into the results, with the goal of educating users not only in how to apply pyEMU, but also in the underlying theory of applied uncertainty quantification.

A recent Cleanroom success story: The Redwing project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hausler, Philip A.

1992-01-01

Redwing is the largest completed Cleanroom software engineering project in IBM, both in terms of lines of code and project staffing. The product provides a decision-support facility that utilizes artificial intelligence (AI) technology for predicting and preventing complex operating problems in an MVS environment. The project used the Cleanroom process for development and realized a defect rate of 2.6 errors/KLOC, measured from first execution. This represents the total amount of errors that were found in testing and installation at three field test sites. Development productivity was 486 LOC/PM, which included all development labor expended in design specification through completion of incremental testing. In short, the Redwing team produced a complex systems software product with an extraordinarily low error rate, while maintaining high productivity. All of this was accomplished by a project team using Cleanroom for the first time. An 'introductory implementation' of Cleanroom was defined and used on Redwing. This paper describes the quality and productivity results, the Redwing project, and how Cleanroom was implemented.

Evolutionary fuzzy modeling human diagnostic decisions.

PubMed

Peña-Reyes, Carlos Andrés

2004-05-01

Fuzzy CoCo is a methodology, combining fuzzy logic and evolutionary computation, for constructing systems able to accurately predict the outcome of a human decision-making process, while providing an understandable explanation of the underlying reasoning. Fuzzy logic provides a formal framework for constructing systems exhibiting both good numeric performance (accuracy) and linguistic representation (interpretability). However, fuzzy modeling--meaning the construction of fuzzy systems--is an arduous task, demanding the identification of many parameters. To solve it, we use evolutionary computation techniques (specifically cooperative coevolution), which are widely used to search for adequate solutions in complex spaces. We have successfully applied the algorithm to model the decision processes involved in two breast cancer diagnostic problems, the WBCD problem and the Catalonia mammography interpretation problem, obtaining systems both of high performance and high interpretability. For the Catalonia problem, an evolved system was embedded within a Web-based tool-called COBRA-for aiding radiologists in mammography interpretation.

Do clients' problem-solving appraisals predict career counseling outcomes or vice versa? A reanalysis of Heppner, et al.

PubMed

Lee, Dong-Gwi; Park, Hyun-Joo; Heppner, Mary J

2009-12-01

Using Heppner, et al.'s data from 2004, this study tested career counseling clients in the United States on problem-solving appraisal scores and career-related variables. A cross-lagged panel design with structural equation modeling was used. Results supported the link between clients' precounseling problem-solving appraisal scores and career outcome. This finding held for career decision-making, but not for vocational identity. The study provided further support for Heppner, et al.'s findings, highlighting the influential role of clients' problem-solving appraisals in advancing their career decision-making processes.

Human perspectives and conservation of grizzly bears in Banff National Park, Canada.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Emily C; Rutherford, Murray B; Gibeau, Michael L

2012-06-01

Some conservation initiatives provoke intense conflict among stakeholders. The need for action, the nature of the conservation measures, and the effects of these measures on human interests may be disputed. Tools are needed to depolarize such situations, foster understanding of the perspectives of people involved, and find common ground. We used Q methodology to explore stakeholders' perspectives on conservation and management of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in Banff National Park and the Bow River watershed of Alberta, Canada. Twenty-nine stakeholders participated in the study, including local residents, scientists, agency employees, and representatives of nongovernmental conservation organizations and other interest groups. Participants rank ordered a set of statements to express their opinions on the problems of grizzly bear management (I-IV) and a second set of statements on possible solutions to the problems (A-C). Factor analysis revealed that participants held 4 distinct views of the problems: individuals associated with factor I emphasized deficiencies in goals and plans; those associated with factor II believed that problems had been exaggerated; those associated with factor III blamed institutional flaws such as disjointed management and inadequate resources; and individuals associated with factor IV blamed politicized decision making. There were 3 distinct views about the best solutions to the problems: individuals associated with factor A called for increased conservation efforts; those associated with factor B wanted reforms in decision-making processes; and individuals associated with factor C supported active landscape management. We connected people's definitions of the problem with their preferred solutions to form 5 overall problem narratives espoused by groups in the study: the problem is deficient goals and plans, the solution is to prioritize conservation efforts (planning-oriented conservation advocates); the problem is flawed institutions, the solution is to prioritize conservation efforts (institutionally-oriented conservation advocates); the problems have been exaggerated, but there is a need to improve decision-making processes (optimistic decision-process reformers); the problems have been exaggerated, but managers should more actively manage the landscape (optimistic landscape managers); and the problem is politicized decision making, solutions vary (democratizers). Although these 5 groups differed on many issues, they agreed that the population of grizzly bears is vulnerable to extirpation, human use of the area should be designed around ecological constraints, and more inclusive decision-making processes are needed. We used our results to inform a series of workshops in which stakeholders developed and agreed on new management strategies that were implemented by Parks Canada. Our research demonstrates the usefulness of Q method to illuminate people's perspectives and identify common ground in settings where conservation is contested. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Preschool Teachers' Perceptions of Factors Influencing Their Referral Decisions for Young Children with Severe Behavior Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kingsley, Susan J.

2012-01-01

In this study factors preschool teachers perceive as influencing their referral decisions for young children with severe behavior problems were investigated. Research questions focused on 1) teacher factors such as teachers' knowledge, beliefs and concerns; 2) program-system factors such as availability of services and inter and intra-agency…

Using a Problem-Solving/Decision-Making Model to Evaluate School Lunch Salad Bars

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Carolyn C.; Spruance, Lori Andersen; O'Malley, Keelia; Begalieva, Maya; Myers, Leann

2017-01-01

Purpose/Objectives: Evaluation of school-based activities is a high priority for school personnel. Nutrition activities, such as salad bars (SBs) incorporated into school lunchrooms, may increase children's consumption of low-energy, high fiber diets. The purpose of this paper is to describe a problem-solving/ decision-making model and demonstrate…

Schoolwide Social-Behavioral Climate, Student Problem Behavior, and Related Administrative Decisions: Empirical Patterns from 1,510 Schools Nationwide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spaulding, Scott A.; Irvin, Larry K.; Horner, Robert H.; May, Seth L.; Emeldi, Monica; Tobin, Tary J.; Sugai, George

2010-01-01

Office discipline referral (ODR) data provide useful information about problem behavior and consequence patterns, social-behavioral climates, and effects of social-behavioral interventions in schools. The authors report patterns of ODRs and subsequent administrative decisions from 1,510 schools nationwide that used the School-Wide Information…

Applying the Cognitive Information Processing Approach to Career Problem Solving and Decision Making to Women's Career Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLennan, Natasha A.; Arthur, Nancy

1999-01-01

Outlines an expanded framework of the Cognitive Information Processing (CIP) approach to career problem solving and decision making for career counseling with women. Addresses structural and individual barriers in women's career development and provides practical suggestions for applying and evaluating the CIP approach in career counseling.…

Decision-Making and Problem-Solving Practices of Superintendents Confronted by District Dilemmas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Noppe, Rene; Yager, Stuart; Webb, Carol; Sheng, Bridget

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the decision-making and problem-solving approaches most frequently used by school superintendents in two mid-western states when confronted with district dilemmas. The research replicated a study conducted by Polka, Litchka, Caizi, Denig and Mete (2011) in five Mid-Atlantic states. The survey used in both…

Pilot interaction with automated airborne decision making systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouse, W. B.; Chu, Y. Y.; Greenstein, J. S.; Walden, R. S.

1976-01-01

An investigation was made of interaction between a human pilot and automated on-board decision making systems. Research was initiated on the topic of pilot problem solving in automated and semi-automated flight management systems and attempts were made to develop a model of human decision making in a multi-task situation. A study was made of allocation of responsibility between human and computer, and discussed were various pilot performance parameters with varying degrees of automation. Optimal allocation of responsibility between human and computer was considered and some theoretical results found in the literature were presented. The pilot as a problem solver was discussed. Finally the design of displays, controls, procedures, and computer aids for problem solving tasks in automated and semi-automated systems was considered.

Decision making and problem solving with computer assistance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kraiss, F.

1980-01-01

In modern guidance and control systems, the human as manager, supervisor, decision maker, problem solver and trouble shooter, often has to cope with a marginal mental workload. To improve this situation, computers should be used to reduce the operator from mental stress. This should not solely be done by increased automation, but by a reasonable sharing of tasks in a human-computer team, where the computer supports the human intelligence. Recent developments in this area are summarized. It is shown that interactive support of operator by intelligent computer is feasible during information evaluation, decision making and problem solving. The applied artificial intelligence algorithms comprehend pattern recognition and classification, adaptation and machine learning as well as dynamic and heuristic programming. Elementary examples are presented to explain basic principles.

Decision-Theoretic Control of Planetary Rovers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zilberstein, Shlomo; Washington, Richard; Bernstein, Daniel S.; Mouaddib, Abdel-Illah; Morris, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

Planetary rovers are small unmanned vehicles equipped with cameras and a variety of sensors used for scientific experiments. They must operate under tight constraints over such resources as operation time, power, storage capacity, and communication bandwidth. Moreover, the limited computational resources of the rover limit the complexity of on-line planning and scheduling. We describe two decision-theoretic approaches to maximize the productivity of planetary rovers: one based on adaptive planning and the other on hierarchical reinforcement learning. Both approaches map the problem into a Markov decision problem and attempt to solve a large part of the problem off-line, exploiting the structure of the plan and independence between plan components. We examine the advantages and limitations of these techniques and their scalability.

Bi-Level Decision Making for Supporting Energy and Water Nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Vesselinov, V. V.

2016-12-01

The inseparable relationship between energy production and water resources has led to the emerging energy-water nexus concept, which provides a means for integrated management and decision making of these two critical resources. However, the energy-water nexus frequently involves decision makers with different and competing management objectives. Furthermore, there is a challenge that decision makers and stakeholders might be making decisions sequentially from a higher level to a lower level, instead of at the same decision level, whereby the objective of a decision maker at a higher level should be satisfied first. In this study, a bi-level decision model is advanced to handle such decision-making situations for managing the energy-water nexus. The work represents a unique contribution to developing an integrated decision-support framework/tool to quantify and analyze the tradeoffs between the two-level energy-water nexus decision makers. Here, plans for electricity generation, fuel supply, water supply, capacity expansion of the power plants and environmental impacts are optimized to provide effective decision support. The developed decision-support framework is implemented in Julia (a high-level, high-performance dynamic programming language for technical computing) and is a part of the MADS (Model Analyses & Decision Support) framework (http://mads.lanl.gov). To demonstrate the capabilities of the developed methodology, a series of analyses are performed for synthetic problems consistent with actual real-world energy-water nexus management problems.

Critical thinking by nurses on ethical issues like the termination of pregnancies.

PubMed

Botes, A

2000-09-01

This research forms part of a larger interdisciplinary research project on the termination of pregnancies. The focus of this part of the project is on the ethical issues related to termination of pregnancies. The practice of the professional nurse is confronted with ethical dilemmas and disputes. Whether the nurse chooses to participate in the termination of pregnancies or not, the core function of the nurse is that of counseling and ethical decision-making. Effective counseling requires empathy, respect for human rights and unconditional acceptance of a person. Making ethical decisions implies making critical decisions. It is self-evident, therefore, that such decisions should be based on sound arguments and logical reasoning. It is of vital importance that ethical decisions can be justified on rational ground. Decision-making is a critical thinking approach process for choosing the best action to meet a desired goal. The research question that is relevant for this paper is: Are nurses thinking critically about ethical issues like the termination of pregnancies? To answer the research question a qualitative, exploratory, descriptive design was used (Mouton, 1996:103-169). Registered nurses were selected purposively (Creswell, 1994:15). 1200 registered nurses completed the open-ended questionnaires. Focus group interviews were conducted with 22 registered nurses from a public hospital for women and child health services. Data analysis, using secondary data from open-ended questionnaires and transcribed focus group interviews, were based on the approach of Morse and Field (1994:25-34) and Strauss and Corbin (1990). The themes and categories from open coding were compared, conceptualized and linked with theories on critical thinking (Paul, 1994; Watson & Glaser, 1991 and the American Philosophical Association, 1990). The measures of Lincoln and Guba (1985) and Morse (1994) related to secondary data analysis were employed to ensure trustworthiness. Based on these findings the researcher concluded that nurses are not thinking critically when making ethical decisions concerning the termination of pregnancies. Recommendations are made as a possible solution for this problem.

Effects of Clinical Decision Topic on Patients' Involvement in and Satisfaction With Decisions and Their Subsequent Implementation.

PubMed

Freidl, Marion; Pesola, Francesca; Konrad, Jana; Puschner, Bernd; Kovacs, Attila Istvan; De Rosa, Corrado; Fiorillo, Andrea; Krogsgaard Bording, Malene; Kawohl, Wolfram; Rössler, Wulf; Nagy, Marietta; Munk-Jørgensen, Povl; Slade, Mike

2016-06-01

Clinical decision making is an important aspect of mental health care. Predictors of how patients experience decision making and whether decisions are implemented are underresearched. This study investigated the relationship between decision topic and involvement in the decision, satisfaction with it, and its subsequent implementation from both staff and patient perspectives. As part of the Clinical Decision Making and Outcome in Routine Care for People With Severe Mental Illness study, patients (N=588) and their providers (N=213) were recruited from community-based mental health services in six European countries. Both completed bimonthly assessments for one year using the Clinical Decision Making in Routine Care Scale to assess the decision topic and implementation; both also completed the Clinical Decision Making Involvement and Satisfaction Scale. Three categories of decision topics were determined: treatment (most frequently cited), social, and financial. The topic identified as most important remained stable over the follow-up. Patients were more likely to rate their involvement as active rather than passive for social decisions (odds ratio [OR]=5.7, p<.001) and financial decisions (OR=9.5, p<.001). They were more likely to report higher levels of satisfaction rather than lower levels for social decisions (OR=1.5, p=.01) and financial decisions (OR=1.7, p=.01). Social decisions were more likely to be partly implemented (OR=3.0, p<.001) or fully implemented (OR=1.7, p=.03) than not implemented. Patients reported poorer involvement, satisfaction, and implementation in regard to treatment-related decisions, compared with social and financial decisions. Clinicians may need to employ different interactional styles for different types of decisions to maximize satisfaction and decision implementation.

Rational decisions, random matrices and spin glasses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galluccio, Stefano; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

We consider the problem of rational decision making in the presence of nonlinear constraints. By using tools borrowed from spin glass and random matrix theory, we focus on the portfolio optimisation problem. We show that the number of optimal solutions is generally exponentially large, and each of them is fragile: rationality is in this case of limited use. In addition, this problem is related to spin glasses with Lévy-like (long-ranged) couplings, for which we show that the ground state is not exponentially degenerate.

Policy implications of private sector involvement in correctional services and programs.

PubMed

Johnson, T A

1987-01-01

The movement toward private sector involvement in our correctional services and programs is growing. Before our focus is turned completely to privatization of these services, it would be prudent to analyze the "policy impact of such change. It is evident that the diverse and incompatible policies guiding the government approach to corrections and the absence of any rational planning to answer public interest goals is costly. Moreover, despite the increasing complexity of problems now confronting public authorities, little change has been made in their approach to resolving them. However, is it realistic to assume that the profit/loss barometer of the private sector can be applied in an area of social problems that are so pluralistic and ill defined? What of the many areas of potential legal concern, that is, vicarious litigation, First Amendment right of prisoners, and so forth? These are all areas that need to be researched so that any judgements or decisions made will be sound.

Monitoring the Impact of Solution Concepts within a Given Problematic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavallucci, Denis; Rousselot, François; Zanni, Cecilia

It is acknowledged that one of the most critical issues facing today’s organizations concerns the substantial leaps required to methodologically structure innovation. Among other published work, some suggest that a complete rethinking of current practices is required. In this article, we propose a methodology aiming at providing controlled R&D choices based on a monitoring of the impact Solution Concepts provoke on a problematic situation. Initially this problematic situation is modeled in a graph form, namely a Problem Graph. It has the objective to assists R&D managers when choosing which activities to support and bring them concrete arguments to defend their choices. We postulate that by improving the robustness of such approaches we help deciders to switch from intuitive decisions (mostly built upon their past experiences, fear regarding risks, and awareness of the company’s level of acceptance of novelties) to thoroughly constructed inventive problem solving strategies. Our approach will be discussed using a computer application that illustrates our hypothesis after being tested in several industrial applications.

Multi Sensor Fusion Using Fitness Adaptive Differential Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giri, Ritwik; Ghosh, Arnob; Chowdhury, Aritra; Das, Swagatam

The rising popularity of multi-source, multi-sensor networks supports real-life applications calls for an efficient and intelligent approach to information fusion. Traditional optimization techniques often fail to meet the demands. The evolutionary approach provides a valuable alternative due to its inherent parallel nature and its ability to deal with difficult problems. We present a new evolutionary approach based on a modified version of Differential Evolution (DE), called Fitness Adaptive Differential Evolution (FiADE). FiADE treats sensors in the network as distributed intelligent agents with various degrees of autonomy. Existing approaches based on intelligent agents cannot completely answer the question of how their agents could coordinate their decisions in a complex environment. The proposed approach is formulated to produce good result for the problems that are high-dimensional, highly nonlinear, and random. The proposed approach gives better result in case of optimal allocation of sensors. The performance of the proposed approach is compared with an evolutionary algorithm coordination generalized particle model (C-GPM).

Development of the Modes of Collaboration framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawlak, Alanna; Irving, Paul W.; Caballero, Marcos D.

2018-01-01

Group work is becoming increasingly common in introductory physics classrooms. Understanding how students engage in these group learning environments is important for designing and facilitating productive learning opportunities for students. We conducted a study in which we collected video of groups of students working on conceptual electricity and magnetism problems in an introductory physics course. In this setting, students needed to negotiate a common understanding and coordinate group decisions in order to complete the activity successfully. We observed students interacting in several distinct ways while solving these problems. Analysis of these observations focused on identifying the different ways students interacted and articulating what defines and distinguishes them, resulting in the development of the modes of collaboration framework. The modes of collaboration framework defines student interactions along three dimensions: social, discursive, and disciplinary content. This multidimensional approach offers a unique lens through which to consider group work and provides a flexibility that could allow the framework to be adapted for a variety of contexts. We present the framework and several examples of its application here.

Training for Aviation Decision Making: The Naturalistic Decision Making Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

This paper describes the implications of a naturalistic decision making (NDM) perspective for training air crews to make flight-related decisions. The implications are based on two types of analyses: (a) identification of distinctive features that serve as a basis for classifying a diverse set of decision events actually encountered by flight crews, and (b) performance strategies that distinguished more from less effective crews flying full-mission simulators, as well as performance analyses from NTSB accident investigations. Six training recommendations are offered: (1) Because of the diversity of decision situations, crews need to be aware that different strategies may be appropriate for different problems; (2) Given that situation assessment is essential to making a good decision, it is important to train specific content knowledge needed to recognize critical conditions, to assess risks and available time, and to develop strategies to verify or diagnose the problem; (3) Tendencies to oversimplify problems may be overcome by training to evaluate options in terms of goals, constraints, consequences, and prevailing conditions; (4) In order to provide the time to gather information and consider options, it is essential to manage the situation, which includes managing crew workload, prioritizing tasks, contingency planning, buying time (e.g., requesting holding or vectors), and using low workload periods to prepare for high workload; (5) Evaluating resource requirements ("What do I need?") and capabilities ("'What do I have?" ) are essential to making good decisions. Using resources to meet requirements may involve the cabin crew, ATC, dispatchers, and maintenance personnel; (6) Given that decisions must often be made under high risk, time pressure, and workload, train under realistic flight conditions to promote the development of robust decision skills.

5 CFR 2610.308 - Decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF GOVERNMENT ETHICS ORGANIZATION AND PROCEDURES IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EQUAL... officer shall issue an initial decision on the application within 30 days after completion of proceedings... amount requested and the amount awarded. The decision shall also include, if at issue, findings on...

Supporting multi-stakeholder environmental decisions.

PubMed

Hajkowicz, Stefan A

2008-09-01

This paper examines how multiple criteria analysis (MCA) can be used to support multi-stakeholder environmental management decisions. It presents a study through which 48 stakeholders from environmental, primary production and community interest groups used MCA to prioritise 30 environmental management problems in the Mackay-Whitsunday region of Queensland, Australia. The MCA model, with procedures for aggregating multi-stakeholder output, was used to inform a final decision on the priority of the region's environmental management problems. The result was used in the region's environmental management plan as required under Australia's Natural Heritage Trust programme. The study shows how relatively simple MCA methods can help stakeholders make group decisions, even when they hold strongly conflicting preferences.

Psychometric evaluation of the short version of the Personal Diabetes Questionnaire to assess dietary behaviors and exercise in patients with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Akohoue, Sylvie A; Wallston, Kenneth A; Schlundt, David G; Rothman, Russell L

2017-08-01

Patients with diabetes and of lower socioeconomic status have difficulty adhering to dietary recommendations. Practical and effective tools assessing self-management behaviors are needed to help evaluate interventions tailored to the needs of individual patients or population groups. This study examined the psychometric properties of a short 11-item version of the Personal Diabetes Questionnaire scale (PDQ-11) using data from the Public-Private Partnership to Improve Diabetes Education trial. Patients (n=411) with type 2 diabetes from ten safety net primary care clinics in the Mid-Cumberland Region of Tennessee completed the PDQ-11, the Summary of Diabetes Self-Care Activities (SDSCA), the Perceived Diabetes Self-Management Scale (PDSMS), and the Adherence to Refills and Medications Scale (ARMS). Statistical analyses were conducted to explore the subscale structure of the PDQ-11, and the internal consistency and validity of its subscales. Exploratory factor analysis of the PDQ-11 revealed four components (Cronbach's α=0.50 to 0.81): Eating Behavior Problems; Use of Information for Dietary Decision Making; Calorie Restriction; and Activity and Exercise. Eating Behavior Problems and Use of Information for Dietary Decision Making had the strongest associations with the diet subscales of the SDSCA and were also correlated with the PDSMS and the ARMS scores (all ps<0.001). Different PDQ-11 subscales were correlated with BMI (Calorie Restriction Activity and Exercise) and blood pressure (Eating Behavior Problems). The PDQ-11 is a useful measure of dietary behaviors in patients with type 2 diabetes; its use may help providers tailor individual nutrition intervention strategies to patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Generalized Quantum-Inspired Decision Making Model for Intelligent Agent

PubMed Central

Loo, Chu Kiong

2014-01-01

A novel decision making for intelligent agent using quantum-inspired approach is proposed. A formal, generalized solution to the problem is given. Mathematically, the proposed model is capable of modeling higher dimensional decision problems than previous researches. Four experiments are conducted, and both empirical experiments results and proposed model's experiment results are given for each experiment. Experiments showed that the results of proposed model agree with empirical results perfectly. The proposed model provides a new direction for researcher to resolve cognitive basis in designing intelligent agent. PMID:24778580

New technology implementation: Technical, economic and political factors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, J. W., Jr.; Susman, G. I.; Porter, P. S.

1985-01-01

An analysis is presented of the process of implementing advanced manufacturing technology, based on studies of numerous organizations. This process is seen as consisting of a series of decisions with technical, economic, and political objectives. Frequency decisions involve specifications, equipment, resources/organization, and location. Problems in implementation are viewed as resulting from tradeoffs among the objectives, the tendency of decision makers to emphasize some objectives at the expense of others, and the propensity of problems to spread from one area to another. Three sets of recommendations, based on this analysis, are presented.

The experience of foot problems and decisions to access foot care in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Wilson, Oonagh; Kirwan, John; Dures, Emma; Quest, Enid; Hewlett, Sarah

2017-01-01

Although foot problems are common in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), the consequences of foot problems from the patient perspective have not been fully explored. The aims of this study were to explore the experience of foot problems and decisions to access foot care services or not in patients with RA. Semi structured, one-to-one interviews with patients recruited from 2 UK rheumatology units, purposively sampled for self-reported foot problems and a range of personal/disease characteristics. Inductive thematic analysis was used, with rigour provided by multiple independent analysers. Emerging themes were discussed and agreed by all authors. Twelve patients participated: 7 female; mean age 56 years (29-72); mean disease duration 12 years (2-27), 5 had accessed foot care services. The 'Impact' of foot problems was substantial and formed the underpinning theme, comprising three organising themes: 'Foot symptoms'; 'Consequences'; and 'Cost'. Foot symptoms such as pain and numbness required self-management, and affected daily life (walking, working) leading to social and emotional costs. The global theme, 'Decision to access foot care or not', also comprised three organising themes: 'Access perceived unnecessary' (no problem, can cope); 'Access hindered by patients' perception'; and 'Access supported by patient and clinician'. Decisions to access foot care or not were complex and influenced by patient beliefs regarding possible treatments and how to access these, and hindered by patient perceptions that their feet were ignored by rheumatology clinicians. Positive experience of foot care encouraged continued utilisation but negative experiences contributed to patients' decisions to discontinue foot care services. Foot problems are important issues for patients and impact on many aspects of their physical, social and emotional lives. Patients who had accessed foot care services prioritised their foot problems as an important health care need. However, for others who would like foot care services, personal knowledge and values, and perceived barriers in clinical practice, appear to interact to inhibit foot care access. The extent which these interactions affect overall access to foot care in RA patients in general now needs to be quantified to help to inform and improve the effectiveness of the organisation and delivery of foot care.

Learning Grasp Strategies Composed of Contact Relative Motions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Platt, Robert, Jr.

2007-01-01

Of central importance to grasp synthesis algorithms are the assumptions made about the object to be grasped and the sensory information that is available. Many approaches avoid the issue of sensing entirely by assuming that complete information is available. In contrast, this paper proposes an approach to grasp synthesis expressed in terms of units of control that simultaneously change the contact configuration and sense information about the object and the relative manipulator-object pose. These units of control, known as contact relative motions (CRMs), allow the grasp synthesis problem to be recast as an optimal control problem where the goal is to find a strategy for executing CRMs that leads to a grasp in the shortest number of steps. An experiment is described that uses Robonaut, the NASA-JSC space humanoid, to show that CRMs are a viable means of synthesizing grasps. However, because of the limited amount of information that a single CRM can sense, the optimal control problem may be partially observable. This paper proposes expressing the problem as a k-order Markov Decision Process (MDP) and solving it using Reinforcement Learning. This approach is tested in a simulation of a two-contact manipulator that learns to grasp an object. Grasp strategies learned in simulation are tested on the physical Robonaut platform and found to lead to grasp configurations consistently.

Confronting dynamics and uncertainty in optimal decision making for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2013-01-01

The effectiveness of conservation efforts ultimately depends on the recognition that decision making, and the systems that it is designed to affect, are inherently dynamic and characterized by multiple sources of uncertainty. To cope with these challenges, conservation planners are increasingly turning to the tools of decision analysis, especially dynamic optimization methods. Here we provide a general framework for optimal, dynamic conservation and then explore its capacity for coping with various sources and degrees of uncertainty. In broadest terms, the dynamic optimization problem in conservation is choosing among a set of decision options at periodic intervals so as to maximize some conservation objective over the planning horizon. Planners must account for immediate objective returns, as well as the effect of current decisions on future resource conditions and, thus, on future decisions. Undermining the effectiveness of such a planning process are uncertainties concerning extant resource conditions (partial observability), the immediate consequences of decision choices (partial controllability), the outcomes of uncontrolled, environmental drivers (environmental variation), and the processes structuring resource dynamics (structural uncertainty). Where outcomes from these sources of uncertainty can be described in terms of probability distributions, a focus on maximizing the expected objective return, while taking state-specific actions, is an effective mechanism for coping with uncertainty. When such probability distributions are unavailable or deemed unreliable, a focus on maximizing robustness is likely to be the preferred approach. Here the idea is to choose an action (or state-dependent policy) that achieves at least some minimum level of performance regardless of the (uncertain) outcomes. We provide some examples of how the dynamic optimization problem can be framed for problems involving management of habitat for an imperiled species, conservation of a critically endangered population through captive breeding, control of invasive species, construction of biodiversity reserves, design of landscapes to increase habitat connectivity, and resource exploitation. Although these decision making problems and their solutions present significant challenges, we suggest that a systematic and effective approach to dynamic decision making in conservation need not be an onerous undertaking. The requirements are shared with any systematic approach to decision making--a careful consideration of values, actions, and outcomes.

Confronting dynamics and uncertainty in optimal decision making for conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2013-06-01

The effectiveness of conservation efforts ultimately depends on the recognition that decision making, and the systems that it is designed to affect, are inherently dynamic and characterized by multiple sources of uncertainty. To cope with these challenges, conservation planners are increasingly turning to the tools of decision analysis, especially dynamic optimization methods. Here we provide a general framework for optimal, dynamic conservation and then explore its capacity for coping with various sources and degrees of uncertainty. In broadest terms, the dynamic optimization problem in conservation is choosing among a set of decision options at periodic intervals so as to maximize some conservation objective over the planning horizon. Planners must account for immediate objective returns, as well as the effect of current decisions on future resource conditions and, thus, on future decisions. Undermining the effectiveness of such a planning process are uncertainties concerning extant resource conditions (partial observability), the immediate consequences of decision choices (partial controllability), the outcomes of uncontrolled, environmental drivers (environmental variation), and the processes structuring resource dynamics (structural uncertainty). Where outcomes from these sources of uncertainty can be described in terms of probability distributions, a focus on maximizing the expected objective return, while taking state-specific actions, is an effective mechanism for coping with uncertainty. When such probability distributions are unavailable or deemed unreliable, a focus on maximizing robustness is likely to be the preferred approach. Here the idea is to choose an action (or state-dependent policy) that achieves at least some minimum level of performance regardless of the (uncertain) outcomes. We provide some examples of how the dynamic optimization problem can be framed for problems involving management of habitat for an imperiled species, conservation of a critically endangered population through captive breeding, control of invasive species, construction of biodiversity reserves, design of landscapes to increase habitat connectivity, and resource exploitation. Although these decision making problems and their solutions present significant challenges, we suggest that a systematic and effective approach to dynamic decision making in conservation need not be an onerous undertaking. The requirements are shared with any systematic approach to decision making—a careful consideration of values, actions, and outcomes.

Applied Empiricism: Ensuring the Validity of Causal Response to Intervention Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kilgus, Stephen P.; Collier-Meek, Melissa A.; Johnson, Austin H.; Jaffery, Rose

2014-01-01

School personnel make a variety of decisions within multitiered problem-solving frameworks, including the decision to assign a student to group-based support, to design an individualized support plan, or classify a student as eligible for special education. Each decision is founded upon a judgment regarding whether the student has responded to…

Indicators of Informal and Formal Decision-Making about a Socioscientific Issue

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dauer, Jenny M.; Lute, Michelle L.; Straka, Olivia

2017-01-01

We propose two contrasting types of student decision-making based on social and cognitive psychology models of separate mental processes for problem solving. Informal decision-making uses intuitive reasoning and is subject to cognitive biases, whereas formal decision-making uses effortful, logical reasoning. We explored indicators of students'…

Decisions Matter: Using a Decision-Making Framework with Contemporary Student Affairs Case Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vaccaro, Annemarie; McCoy, Brian; Champagne, Delight; Siegel, Michael

2013-01-01

"Decisions Matter" is an innovative guide designed to help novice student affairs professionals develop effective decision-making skills. Written by seasoned student affairs educators and practitioners, this book contains a systematic method for solving a wide range of complex problems. In this exceptional instructional tool, the authors…

Path Analysis on Educational Fiscal Decision-Making Mechanism in China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhao, Hongbin; Sun, Baicai

2007-01-01

In China's current educational fiscal decision making, problems are as follows: no law to trust or not abiding by available laws, absence of equity and efficiency, as well as the standardization of decision-making procedures. It is necessary to set up effective fiscal decision-making mechanism in education and rationally devise reliable paths.

A mixed integer program to model spatial wildfire behavior and suppression placement decisions

Treesearch

Erin J. Belval; Yu Wei; Michael Bevers

2015-01-01

Wildfire suppression combines multiple objectives and dynamic fire behavior to form a complex problem for decision makers. This paper presents a mixed integer program designed to explore integrating spatial fire behavior and suppression placement decisions into a mathematical programming framework. Fire behavior and suppression placement decisions are modeled using...

Decision Making for Democratic Leadership in a Guided Internship

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klinker, JoAnn Franklin; Hoover, J. Duane; Valle, Fernando; Hardin, Fred

2014-01-01

Experience in problem-based learning, authentic experiences, on-the-job decision making, and critical reflection on decisions made formed the conceptual framework of an internship to develop democratic leadership as a professional ethic in interns. Interns in an on-the-job guided internship examined decisions over a 13-week period as they…

Effects of risk attitudes on extended attack fire management decisionmaking

Treesearch

Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

2009-01-01

Fire management inherently involves the assessment and management of risk, and decision making under uncertainty. Although organizational standards and guides are an important determinant of how decision problems are structured and framed, decision makers may view risk-based decisions from a perspective that is unique to their background and experience. Previous...

Toolbox or Adjustable Spanner? A Critical Comparison of Two Metaphors for Adaptive Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Söllner, Anke; Bröder, Arndt

2016-01-01

For multiattribute decision tasks, different metaphors exist that describe the process of decision making and its adaptation to diverse problems and situations. Multiple strategy models (MSMs) assume that decision makers choose adaptively from a set of different strategies (toolbox metaphor), whereas evidence accumulation models (EAMs) hold that a…

Parental decision making in pediatric otoplasty: The role of shared decision making in parental decisional conflict and decisional regret.

PubMed

Hong, Paul; Gorodzinsky, Ayala Y; Taylor, Benjamin A; Chorney, Jill MacLaren

2016-07-01

To date, there has been little research on shared decision making and decisional outcomes in pediatric surgery. The objectives of this study were to describe the level of decisional conflict and decisional regret experienced by parents considering otoplasty for their children, and to determine if they are related to perceptions of shared decision making. Prospective cohort clinical study. Sixty-five consecutive parents of children who underwent surgical consultation for otoplasty were prospectively enrolled. Participants completed the Demographic Form, the Decisional Conflict Scale, and the Shared Decision-Making Questionnaire after the consultation visit. The consulting surgeons completed the physician version of the Shared Decision-Making Questionnaire. Six months after surgery, parents completed the Decisional Regret Scale. The median decisional conflict was 15.63; 21 (32.8%) parents scored 25 or above, a previously defined cutoff indicating clinically significant decisional conflict. Parent ratings of shared decision making and decisional conflict were significantly negatively correlated (P < 0.001); however, there was no significant correlation between physician ratings of shared decision making and parental decisional conflict. Significant decisional regret was reported in two (3.2%) participants. Decisional regret and parent and physician ratings of shared decision making were both significantly negatively correlated (P = 0.044 and P = 0.001, respectively). Decisional regret and decisional conflict scores were significantly positively correlated (P = 0.001). Parent and physician ratings of shared decision making were correlated (intraclass correlation = 0.625, P < 0.001). Many parents experienced significant decisional conflict when making decisions about their child's elective surgical treatment. Fewer parents experienced significant decisional regret after the procedure. Parents who perceived themselves as being more involved in the decision making process reported less decisional conflict and decisional regret. Parents and physicians had varied perceptions of the degree of shared decision making. Future research should develop interventions to increase parents' involvement in decision making and explore the influence of significant decisional conflict and decisional regret on health outcomes. 2b. Laryngoscope, 126:S5-S13, 2016. © 2016 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

On the Complexity of Delaying an Adversary’s Project

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-01-01

interdiction models for such problems and show that the resulting problem com- plexities run the gamut : polynomially solvable, weakly NP-complete, strongly...problems and show that the resulting problem complexities run the gamut : polynomially solvable, weakly NP-complete, strongly NP-complete or NP-hard. We

Testing a Spanish-language colorectal cancer screening decision aid in Latinos with limited English proficiency: results from a pre-post trial and four month follow-up survey.

PubMed

Reuland, Daniel S; Ko, Linda K; Fernandez, Alicia; Braswell, Laura C; Pignone, Michael

2012-06-12

Compared with non-Latinos, Latinos in the US have low rates of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and low rates of knowledge regarding CRC screening tests and guidelines. Spanish speaking Latinos have particularly low CRC screening rates and screening knowledge. Our purpose was twofold: (1) to evaluate the effect of a computer-based, Spanish-language CRC screening decision aid on screening knowledge, intent to obtain screening, and screening self-efficacy in a community sample of Latinos with limited English proficiency (LEP); and (2) to survey these decision aid viewers at four months to determine their rates of CRC discussions with a health care provider as well as their rates of screening test completion. We recruited 50-75 year old Latinos with LEP who were not current with CRC. Participants screening viewed a 14 minute multimedia decision aid that addresses CRC screening rationale, recommendations, and options. We conducted an uncontrolled (pre-post) study in which we assessed screening knowledge, self-efficacy, and intent at baseline and immediately after decision aid viewing. We also conducted a follow-up telephone survey of participants at four months to examine rates of patient-provider screening discussions and test completion. Among n = 80 participants, knowledge scores increased from 20% (before) to 72% (after) decision aid viewing (absolute difference [95%CI]: 52% [46, 59]). The proportion with high screening self-efficacy increased from 67% to 92% (25% [13, 37]); the proportion with high screening intent increased from 63% to 95% (32% [21, 44]). We reached 68 (85%) of 80 participants eligible for the follow-up survey. Of these 36 (53%) reported discussing screening with a provider and 13 (19%) completed a test. Viewing a Spanish-language decision aid increased CRC screening knowledge, self-efficacy, and intent among Latinos with LEP. Decision aid viewing appeared to promote both CRC screening discussions with health care providers and test completion. The decision aid may be an effective tool for promoting CRC screening and reducing screening disparities in this population.

Integrated consensus-based frameworks for unmanned vehicle routing and targeting assignment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnawi, Waleed T.

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are increasingly deployed in complex and dynamic environments to perform multiple tasks cooperatively with other UAVs that contribute to overarching mission effectiveness. Studies by the Department of Defense (DoD) indicate future operations may include anti-access/area-denial (A2AD) environments which limit human teleoperator decision-making and control. This research addresses the problem of decentralized vehicle re-routing and task reassignments through consensus-based UAV decision-making. An Integrated Consensus-Based Framework (ICF) is formulated as a solution to the combined single task assignment problem and vehicle routing problem. The multiple assignment and vehicle routing problem is solved with the Integrated Consensus-Based Bundle Framework (ICBF). The frameworks are hierarchically decomposed into two levels. The bottom layer utilizes the renowned Dijkstra's Algorithm. The top layer addresses task assignment with two methods. The single assignment approach is called the Caravan Auction Algorithm (CarA) Algorithm. This technique extends the Consensus-Based Auction Algorithm (CBAA) to provide awareness for task completion by agents and adopt abandoned tasks. The multiple assignment approach called the Caravan Auction Bundle Algorithm (CarAB) extends the Consensus-Based Bundle Algorithm (CBBA) by providing awareness for lost resources, prioritizing remaining tasks, and adopting abandoned tasks. Research questions are investigated regarding the novelty and performance of the proposed frameworks. Conclusions regarding the research questions will be provided through hypothesis testing. Monte Carlo simulations will provide evidence to support conclusions regarding the research hypotheses for the proposed frameworks. The approach provided in this research addresses current and future military operations for unmanned aerial vehicles. However, the general framework implied by the proposed research is adaptable to any unmanned vehicle. Civil applications that involve missions where human observability would be limited could benefit from the independent UAV task assignment, such as exploration and fire surveillance are also notable uses for this approach.

Health literacy, numeracy, and other characteristics associated with hospitalized patients' preferences for involvement in decision making.

PubMed

Goggins, Kathryn M; Wallston, Kenneth A; Nwosu, Samuel; Schildcrout, Jonathan S; Castel, Liana; Kripalani, Sunil

2014-01-01

Little research has examined the association of health literacy and numeracy with patients' preferred involvement in the problem-solving and decision-making process in the hospital. Using a sample of 1,249 patients hospitalized with cardiovascular disease from the Vanderbilt Inpatient Cohort Study (VICS), we assessed patients' preferred level of involvement using responses to two scenarios of differing symptom severity from the Problem-Solving Decision-Making Scale. Using multivariable modeling, we determined the relationship of health literacy, subjective numeracy, and other patient characteristics with preferences for involvement in decisions, and how this differed by scenario. The authors found that patients with higher levels of health literacy desired more participation in the problem-solving and decision-making process, as did patients with higher subjective numeracy skills, greater educational attainment, female gender, less perceived social support, or greater health care system distrust (p<.05 for each predictor in multivariable models). Patients also preferred to participate more in the decision-making process when the hypothetical symptom they were experiencing was less severe (i.e., they deferred more to their physician when the hypothetical symptom was more severe). These findings underscore the role that patient characteristics, especially health literacy and numeracy, play in decisional preferences among hospitalized patients.

A Mixed-Methods Investigation of Factors and Scenarios Influencing College Students' Decision to Complete Surveys at Five Mid-Western Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koskey, Kristin L. K.; Cain, Bryce; Sondergeld, Toni A.; Alvim, Henrique G.; Slager, Emily M.

2015-01-01

Achieving respectable response rates to surveys on university campuses has become increasingly more difficult, which can increase non-response error and jeopardize the integrity of data. Prior research has focused on investigating the effect of a single or small set of factors on college students' decision to complete surveys. We used a concurrent…

Coding Theory Information Theory and Radar

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-01-01

the design and synthesis of artificial multiagent systems and for the understanding of human decision-making processes. This... altruism that may exist in a complex society. SGT derives its ability to account simultaneously for both group and individual interests from the structure of ...satisficing decision theory as a model of human decision mak- ing. 2 Multi-Attribute Decision Making Many decision problems involve the consideration of

Comparing the effect of a decision aid plus patient navigation with usual care on colorectal cancer screening completion in vulnerable populations: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Screening can reduce colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality. However, screening is underutilized in vulnerable patient populations, particularly among Latinos. Patient-directed decision aids can increase CRC screening knowledge, self-efficacy, and intent; however, their effect on actual screening test completion tends to be modest. This is probably because decision aids do not address some of the patient-specific barriers that prevent successful completion of CRC screening in these populations. These individual barriers might be addressed though patient navigation interventions. This study will test a combined decision aid and patient navigator intervention on screening completion in diverse populations of vulnerable primary care patients. Methods/Design We will conduct a multisite, randomized controlled trial with patient-level randomization. Planned enrollment is 300 patients aged 50 to 75 years at average CRC risk presenting for appointments at two primary clinics in North Carolina and New Mexico. Intervention participants will view a video decision aid immediately before the clinic visit. The 14 to 16 minute video presents information about fecal occult blood tests and colonoscopy and will be viewed on a portable computer tablet in English or Spanish. Clinic-based patient navigators are bilingual and bicultural and will provide both face-to-face and telephone-based navigation. Control participants will view an unrelated food safety video and receive usual care. The primary outcome is completion of a CRC screening test at six months. Planned subgroup analyses include examining intervention effectiveness in Latinos, who will be oversampled. Secondarily, the trial will evaluate the intervention effects on knowledge of CRC screening, self-efficacy, intent, and patient-provider communication. The study will also examine whether patient ethnicity, acculturation, language preference, or health insurance status moderate the intervention effect on CRC screening. Discussion This pragmatic randomized controlled trial will test a combined decision aid and patient navigator intervention targeting CRC screening completion. Findings from this trial may inform future interventions and implementation policies designed to promote CRC screening in vulnerable patient populations and to reduce screening disparities. Clinical trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02054598. PMID:25004983

Comparing the effect of a decision aid plus patient navigation with usual care on colorectal cancer screening completion in vulnerable populations: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Brenner, Alison T; Getrich, Christina M; Pignone, Michael; Rhyne, Robert L; Hoffman, Richard M; McWilliams, Andrew; de Hernandez, Brisa Urquieta; Weaver, Mark A; Tapp, Hazel; Harbi, Khalil; Reuland, Daniel

2014-07-08

Screening can reduce colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality. However, screening is underutilized in vulnerable patient populations, particularly among Latinos. Patient-directed decision aids can increase CRC screening knowledge, self-efficacy, and intent; however, their effect on actual screening test completion tends to be modest. This is probably because decision aids do not address some of the patient-specific barriers that prevent successful completion of CRC screening in these populations. These individual barriers might be addressed though patient navigation interventions. This study will test a combined decision aid and patient navigator intervention on screening completion in diverse populations of vulnerable primary care patients. We will conduct a multisite, randomized controlled trial with patient-level randomization. Planned enrollment is 300 patients aged 50 to 75 years at average CRC risk presenting for appointments at two primary clinics in North Carolina and New Mexico. Intervention participants will view a video decision aid immediately before the clinic visit. The 14 to 16 minute video presents information about fecal occult blood tests and colonoscopy and will be viewed on a portable computer tablet in English or Spanish. Clinic-based patient navigators are bilingual and bicultural and will provide both face-to-face and telephone-based navigation. Control participants will view an unrelated food safety video and receive usual care. The primary outcome is completion of a CRC screening test at six months. Planned subgroup analyses include examining intervention effectiveness in Latinos, who will be oversampled. Secondarily, the trial will evaluate the intervention effects on knowledge of CRC screening, self-efficacy, intent, and patient-provider communication. The study will also examine whether patient ethnicity, acculturation, language preference, or health insurance status moderate the intervention effect on CRC screening. This pragmatic randomized controlled trial will test a combined decision aid and patient navigator intervention targeting CRC screening completion. Findings from this trial may inform future interventions and implementation policies designed to promote CRC screening in vulnerable patient populations and to reduce screening disparities. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02054598.

48 CFR 809.402 - Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... consideration in the decision-making process. (c) The D&S Committee will maintain close coordination with the appropriate official through completion of a final debarment or suspension decision. ...

Multi-Objective Programming for Lot-Sizing with Quantity Discount

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, He-Yau; Lee, Amy H. I.; Lai, Chun-Mei; Kang, Mei-Sung

2011-11-01

Multi-objective programming (MOP) is one of the popular methods for decision making in a complex environment. In a MOP, decision makers try to optimize two or more objectives simultaneously under various constraints. A complete optimal solution seldom exists, and a Pareto-optimal solution is usually used. Some methods, such as the weighting method which assigns priorities to the objectives and sets aspiration levels for the objectives, are used to derive a compromise solution. The ɛ-constraint method is a modified weight method. One of the objective functions is optimized while the other objective functions are treated as constraints and are incorporated in the constraint part of the model. This research considers a stochastic lot-sizing problem with multi-suppliers and quantity discounts. The model is transformed into a mixed integer programming (MIP) model next based on the ɛ-constraint method. An illustrative example is used to illustrate the practicality of the proposed model. The results demonstrate that the model is an effective and accurate tool for determining the replenishment of a manufacturer from multiple suppliers for multi-periods.

Advance commitment: an alternative approach to the family veto problem in organ procurement.

PubMed

De Wispelaere, Jurgen; Stirton, Lindsay

2010-03-01

This article tackles the current deficit in the supply of cadaveric organs by addressing the family veto in organ donation. The authors believe that the family veto matters-ethically as well as practically-and that policies that completely disregard the views of the family in this decision are likely to be counterproductive. Instead, this paper proposes to engage directly with the most important reasons why families often object to the removal of the organs of a loved one who has signed up to the donor registry-notably a failure to understand fully and deliberate on the information and a reluctance to deal with this sort of decision at an emotionally distressing time. To accommodate these concerns it is proposed to separate radically the process of information, deliberation and agreement about the harvesting of a potential donor's organs from the event of death and bereavement through a scheme of advance commitment. This paper briefly sets out the proposal and discusses in some detail its design as well as what is believed to be the main advantages compared with the leading alternatives.

A Five- Year CMAQ Model Performance for Wildfires and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Biomass burning has been identified as an important contributor to the degradation of air quality because of its impact on ozone and particulate matter. Two components of the biomass burning inventory, wildfires and prescribed fires are routinely estimated in the national emissions inventory. However, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the development of these emission inventory sectors. We have completed a 5 year set of CMAQ model simulations (2008-2012) in which we have simulated regional air quality with and without the wildfire and prescribed fire inventory. We will examine CMAQ model performance over regions with significant PM2.5 and Ozone contribution from prescribed fires and wildfires. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Episodic memories predict adaptive value-based decision-making

PubMed Central

Murty, Vishnu; FeldmanHall, Oriel; Hunter, Lindsay E.; Phelps, Elizabeth A; Davachi, Lila

2016-01-01

Prior research illustrates that memory can guide value-based decision-making. For example, previous work has implicated both working memory and procedural memory (i.e., reinforcement learning) in guiding choice. However, other types of memories, such as episodic memory, may also influence decision-making. Here we test the role for episodic memory—specifically item versus associative memory—in supporting value-based choice. Participants completed a task where they first learned the value associated with trial unique lotteries. After a short delay, they completed a decision-making task where they could choose to re-engage with previously encountered lotteries, or new never before seen lotteries. Finally, participants completed a surprise memory test for the lotteries and their associated values. Results indicate that participants chose to re-engage more often with lotteries that resulted in high versus low rewards. Critically, participants not only formed detailed, associative memories for the reward values coupled with individual lotteries, but also exhibited adaptive decision-making only when they had intact associative memory. We further found that the relationship between adaptive choice and associative memory generalized to more complex, ecologically valid choice behavior, such as social decision-making. However, individuals more strongly encode experiences of social violations—such as being treated unfairly, suggesting a bias for how individuals form associative memories within social contexts. Together, these findings provide an important integration of episodic memory and decision-making literatures to better understand key mechanisms supporting adaptive behavior. PMID:26999046

40 CFR 1042.255 - EPA decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 33 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false EPA decisions. 1042.255 Section 1042.255 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR POLLUTION CONTROLS... Families § 1042.255 EPA decisions. (a) If we determine your application is complete and shows that the...

40 CFR 1042.255 - EPA decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 33 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false EPA decisions. 1042.255 Section 1042.255 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR POLLUTION CONTROLS... Families § 1042.255 EPA decisions. (a) If we determine your application is complete and shows that the...