Immortal time bias in observational studies of time-to-event outcomes.

PubMed

Jones, Mark; Fowler, Robert

2016-12-01

The purpose of the study is to show, through simulation and example, the magnitude and direction of immortal time bias when an inappropriate analysis is used. We compare 4 methods of analysis for observational studies of time-to-event outcomes: logistic regression, standard Cox model, landmark analysis, and time-dependent Cox model using an example data set of patients critically ill with influenza and a simulation study. For the example data set, logistic regression, standard Cox model, and landmark analysis all showed some evidence that treatment with oseltamivir provides protection from mortality in patients critically ill with influenza. However, when the time-dependent nature of treatment exposure is taken account of using a time-dependent Cox model, there is no longer evidence of a protective effect of treatment. The simulation study showed that, under various scenarios, the time-dependent Cox model consistently provides unbiased treatment effect estimates, whereas standard Cox model leads to bias in favor of treatment. Logistic regression and landmark analysis may also lead to bias. To minimize the risk of immortal time bias in observational studies of survival outcomes, we strongly suggest time-dependent exposures be included as time-dependent variables in hazard-based analyses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiple recent horizontal transfers of the cox1 intron in Solanaceae and extended co-conversion of flanking exons

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The most frequent case of horizontal transfer in plants involves a group I intron in the mitochondrial gene cox1, which has been acquired via some 80 separate plant-to-plant transfer events among 833 diverse angiosperms examined. This homing intron encodes an endonuclease thought to promote the intron's promiscuous behavior. A promising experimental approach to study endonuclease activity and intron transmission involves somatic cell hybridization, which in plants leads to mitochondrial fusion and genome recombination. However, the cox1 intron has not yet been found in the ideal group for plant somatic genetics - the Solanaceae. We therefore undertook an extensive survey of this family to find members with the intron and to learn more about the evolutionary history of this exceptionally mobile genetic element. Results Although 409 of the 426 species of Solanaceae examined lack the cox1 intron, it is uniformly present in three phylogenetically disjunct clades. Despite strong overall incongruence of cox1 intron phylogeny with angiosperm phylogeny, two of these clades possess nearly identical intron sequences and are monophyletic in intron phylogeny. These two clades, and possibly the third also, contain a co-conversion tract (CCT) downstream of the intron that is extended relative to all previously recognized CCTs in angiosperm cox1. Re-examination of all published cox1 genes uncovered additional cases of extended co-conversion and identified a rare case of putative intron loss, accompanied by full retention of the CCT. Conclusions We infer that the cox1 intron was separately and recently acquired by at least three different lineages of Solanaceae. The striking identity of the intron and CCT from two of these lineages suggests that one of these three intron captures may have occurred by a within-family transfer event. This is consistent with previous evidence that horizontal transfer in plants is biased towards phylogenetically local events. The discovery of extended co-conversion suggests that other cox1 conversions may be longer than realized but obscured by the exceptional conservation of plant mitochondrial sequences. Our findings provide further support for the rampant-transfer model of cox1 intron evolution and recommend the Solanaceae as a model system for the experimental analysis of cox1 intron transfer in plants. PMID:21943226

Streamflow record extension using power transformations and application to sediment transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moog, Douglas B.; Whiting, Peter J.; Thomas, Robert B.

1999-01-01

To obtain a representative set of flow rates for a stream, it is often desirable to fill in missing data or extend measurements to a longer time period by correlation to a nearby gage with a longer record. Linear least squares regression of the logarithms of the flows is a traditional and still common technique. However, its purpose is to generate optimal estimates of each day's discharge, rather than the population of discharges, for which it tends to underestimate variance. Maintenance-of-variance-extension (MOVE) equations [Hirsch, 1982] were developed to correct this bias. This study replaces the logarithmic transformation by the more general Box-Cox scaled power transformation, generating a more linear, constant-variance relationship for the MOVE extension. Combining the Box-Cox transformation with the MOVE extension is shown to improve accuracy in estimating order statistics of flow rate, particularly for the nonextreme discharges which generally govern cumulative transport over time. This advantage is illustrated by prediction of cumulative fractions of total bed load transport.

[Application of SAS macro to evaluated multiplicative and additive interaction in logistic and Cox regression in clinical practices].

PubMed

Nie, Z Q; Ou, Y Q; Zhuang, J; Qu, Y J; Mai, J Z; Chen, J M; Liu, X Q

2016-05-01

Conditional logistic regression analysis and unconditional logistic regression analysis are commonly used in case control study, but Cox proportional hazard model is often used in survival data analysis. Most literature only refer to main effect model, however, generalized linear model differs from general linear model, and the interaction was composed of multiplicative interaction and additive interaction. The former is only statistical significant, but the latter has biological significance. In this paper, macros was written by using SAS 9.4 and the contrast ratio, attributable proportion due to interaction and synergy index were calculated while calculating the items of logistic and Cox regression interactions, and the confidence intervals of Wald, delta and profile likelihood were used to evaluate additive interaction for the reference in big data analysis in clinical epidemiology and in analysis of genetic multiplicative and additive interactions.

Comparison of Survival Models for Analyzing Prognostic Factors in Gastric Cancer Patients

PubMed

Habibi, Danial; Rafiei, Mohammad; Chehrei, Ali; Shayan, Zahra; Tafaqodi, Soheil

2018-03-27

Objective: There are a number of models for determining risk factors for survival of patients with gastric cancer. This study was conducted to select the model showing the best fit with available data. Methods: Cox regression and parametric models (Exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, Log normal, Log logistic and Generalized Gamma) were utilized in unadjusted and adjusted forms to detect factors influencing mortality of patients. Comparisons were made with Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) by using STATA 13 and R 3.1.3 softwares. Results: The results of this study indicated that all parametric models outperform the Cox regression model. The Log normal, Log logistic and Generalized Gamma provided the best performance in terms of AIC values (179.2, 179.4 and 181.1, respectively). On unadjusted analysis, the results of the Cox regression and parametric models indicated stage, grade, largest diameter of metastatic nest, largest diameter of LM, number of involved lymph nodes and the largest ratio of metastatic nests to lymph nodes, to be variables influencing the survival of patients with gastric cancer. On adjusted analysis, according to the best model (log normal), grade was found as the significant variable. Conclusion: The results suggested that all parametric models outperform the Cox model. The log normal model provides the best fit and is a good substitute for Cox regression. Creative Commons Attribution License

COX-2 and PPAR-γ confer cannabidiol-induced apoptosis of human lung cancer cells.

PubMed

Ramer, Robert; Heinemann, Katharina; Merkord, Jutta; Rohde, Helga; Salamon, Achim; Linnebacher, Michael; Hinz, Burkhard

2013-01-01

The antitumorigenic mechanism of cannabidiol is still controversial. This study investigates the role of COX-2 and PPAR-γ in cannabidiol's proapoptotic and tumor-regressive action. In lung cancer cell lines (A549, H460) and primary cells from a patient with lung cancer, cannabidiol elicited decreased viability associated with apoptosis. Apoptotic cell death by cannabidiol was suppressed by NS-398 (COX-2 inhibitor), GW9662 (PPAR-γ antagonist), and siRNA targeting COX-2 and PPAR-γ. Cannabidiol-induced apoptosis was paralleled by upregulation of COX-2 and PPAR-γ mRNA and protein expression with a maximum induction of COX-2 mRNA after 8 hours and continuous increases of PPAR-γ mRNA when compared with vehicle. In response to cannabidiol, tumor cell lines exhibited increased levels of COX-2-dependent prostaglandins (PG) among which PGD(2) and 15-deoxy-Δ(12,14)-PGJ(2) (15d-PGJ(2)) caused a translocation of PPAR-γ to the nucleus and induced a PPAR-γ-dependent apoptotic cell death. Moreover, in A549-xenografted nude mice, cannabidiol caused upregulation of COX-2 and PPAR-γ in tumor tissue and tumor regression that was reversible by GW9662. Together, our data show a novel proapoptotic mechanism of cannabidiol involving initial upregulation of COX-2 and PPAR-γ and a subsequent nuclear translocation of PPAR-γ by COX-2-dependent PGs.

Gene-Based Association Analysis for Censored Traits Via Fixed Effect Functional Regressions.

PubMed

Fan, Ruzong; Wang, Yifan; Yan, Qi; Ding, Ying; Weeks, Daniel E; Lu, Zhaohui; Ren, Haobo; Cook, Richard J; Xiong, Momiao; Swaroop, Anand; Chew, Emily Y; Chen, Wei

2016-02-01

Genetic studies of survival outcomes have been proposed and conducted recently, but statistical methods for identifying genetic variants that affect disease progression are rarely developed. Motivated by our ongoing real studies, here we develop Cox proportional hazard models using functional regression (FR) to perform gene-based association analysis of survival traits while adjusting for covariates. The proposed Cox models are fixed effect models where the genetic effects of multiple genetic variants are assumed to be fixed. We introduce likelihood ratio test (LRT) statistics to test for associations between the survival traits and multiple genetic variants in a genetic region. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed Cox RF LRT statistics have well-controlled type I error rates. To evaluate power, we compare the Cox FR LRT with the previously developed burden test (BT) in a Cox model and sequence kernel association test (SKAT), which is based on mixed effect Cox models. The Cox FR LRT statistics have higher power than or similar power as Cox SKAT LRT except when 50%/50% causal variants had negative/positive effects and all causal variants are rare. In addition, the Cox FR LRT statistics have higher power than Cox BT LRT. The models and related test statistics can be useful in the whole genome and whole exome association studies. An age-related macular degeneration dataset was analyzed as an example. © 2016 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Gene-based Association Analysis for Censored Traits Via Fixed Effect Functional Regressions

PubMed Central

Fan, Ruzong; Wang, Yifan; Yan, Qi; Ding, Ying; Weeks, Daniel E.; Lu, Zhaohui; Ren, Haobo; Cook, Richard J; Xiong, Momiao; Swaroop, Anand; Chew, Emily Y.; Chen, Wei

2015-01-01

Summary Genetic studies of survival outcomes have been proposed and conducted recently, but statistical methods for identifying genetic variants that affect disease progression are rarely developed. Motivated by our ongoing real studies, we develop here Cox proportional hazard models using functional regression (FR) to perform gene-based association analysis of survival traits while adjusting for covariates. The proposed Cox models are fixed effect models where the genetic effects of multiple genetic variants are assumed to be fixed. We introduce likelihood ratio test (LRT) statistics to test for associations between the survival traits and multiple genetic variants in a genetic region. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed Cox RF LRT statistics have well-controlled type I error rates. To evaluate power, we compare the Cox FR LRT with the previously developed burden test (BT) in a Cox model and sequence kernel association test (SKAT) which is based on mixed effect Cox models. The Cox FR LRT statistics have higher power than or similar power as Cox SKAT LRT except when 50%/50% causal variants had negative/positive effects and all causal variants are rare. In addition, the Cox FR LRT statistics have higher power than Cox BT LRT. The models and related test statistics can be useful in the whole genome and whole exome association studies. An age-related macular degeneration dataset was analyzed as an example. PMID:26782979

Estimation of variance in Cox's regression model with shared gamma frailties.

PubMed

Andersen, P K; Klein, J P; Knudsen, K M; Tabanera y Palacios, R

1997-12-01

The Cox regression model with a shared frailty factor allows for unobserved heterogeneity or for statistical dependence between the observed survival times. Estimation in this model when the frailties are assumed to follow a gamma distribution is reviewed, and we address the problem of obtaining variance estimates for regression coefficients, frailty parameter, and cumulative baseline hazards using the observed nonparametric information matrix. A number of examples are given comparing this approach with fully parametric inference in models with piecewise constant baseline hazards.

Properties of added variable plots in Cox's regression model.

PubMed

Lindkvist, M

2000-03-01

The added variable plot is useful for examining the effect of a covariate in regression models. The plot provides information regarding the inclusion of a covariate, and is useful in identifying influential observations on the parameter estimates. Hall et al. (1996) proposed a plot for Cox's proportional hazards model derived by regarding the Cox model as a generalized linear model. This paper proves and discusses properties of this plot. These properties make the plot a valuable tool in model evaluation. Quantities considered include parameter estimates, residuals, leverage, case influence measures and correspondence to previously proposed residuals and diagnostics.

Cox regression analysis with missing covariates via nonparametric multiple imputation.

PubMed

Hsu, Chiu-Hsieh; Yu, Mandi

2018-01-01

We consider the situation of estimating Cox regression in which some covariates are subject to missing, and there exists additional information (including observed event time, censoring indicator and fully observed covariates) which may be predictive of the missing covariates. We propose to use two working regression models: one for predicting the missing covariates and the other for predicting the missing probabilities. For each missing covariate observation, these two working models are used to define a nearest neighbor imputing set. This set is then used to non-parametrically impute covariate values for the missing observation. Upon the completion of imputation, Cox regression is performed on the multiply imputed datasets to estimate the regression coefficients. In a simulation study, we compare the nonparametric multiple imputation approach with the augmented inverse probability weighted (AIPW) method, which directly incorporates the two working models into estimation of Cox regression, and the predictive mean matching imputation (PMM) method. We show that all approaches can reduce bias due to non-ignorable missing mechanism. The proposed nonparametric imputation method is robust to mis-specification of either one of the two working models and robust to mis-specification of the link function of the two working models. In contrast, the PMM method is sensitive to misspecification of the covariates included in imputation. The AIPW method is sensitive to the selection probability. We apply the approaches to a breast cancer dataset from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program.

Bootstrap investigation of the stability of a Cox regression model.

PubMed

Altman, D G; Andersen, P K

1989-07-01

We describe a bootstrap investigation of the stability of a Cox proportional hazards regression model resulting from the analysis of a clinical trial of azathioprine versus placebo in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. We have considered stability to refer both to the choice of variables included in the model and, more importantly, to the predictive ability of the model. In stepwise Cox regression analyses of 100 bootstrap samples using 17 candidate variables, the most frequently selected variables were those selected in the original analysis, and no other important variable was identified. Thus there was no reason to doubt the model obtained in the original analysis. For each patient in the trial, bootstrap confidence intervals were constructed for the estimated probability of surviving two years. It is shown graphically that these intervals are markedly wider than those obtained from the original model.

[Survival analysis of patients with pneumoconiosis from 1956 to 2010 in Changsha].

PubMed

Xue, Jing; Chen, Lizhang

2012-01-01

To investigate the survival rate and life expectancy of patients with pneumoconiosis and influence factors in Changsha from 1956 to 2010. A total of 3685 patients with pneumoconiosis were diagnosed and reported from 1956 to 2010 in Changsha. The fatality rate and life expectancy were analyzed by life table and the cause of death was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression model. The death rate increased obviously with age. Age and accumulation death probability showed linearity (Ŷ=1.271+0.041X, r=0.989). The life expectancy was 60.12 years. The first cause of death was pulmonary tuberculosis in patients with pneumoconiosis. Ruling out the influence of pulmonary tuberculosis, pneumoconiosis, and lung source heart disease, the life expectancy of patients with pneumoconiosis averagely extended 0.83, 0.99, and 0.02 years. The death rate of pneumoconiosis-tuberculosis had significant difference with that of the pneumoconiosisnontuberculosis (P<0.01). Cox regression analysis revealed that the main risk factors for the survival of patients with pneumoconiosis included type of work (smashing worker), complication with tuberculosis, type of pneumoconiosis (silicosis). The death hazard ratio or relative risk caused by them was 1.927, 1.749, and 1.609, respectively. Prevention of pneumoconiosis should focus on smashing workers in Changsha, while its the treatment primarily attaches importance to complication of tuberculosis and lung infection.

A fast identification algorithm for Box-Cox transformation based radial basis function neural network.

PubMed

Hong, Xia

2006-07-01

In this letter, a Box-Cox transformation-based radial basis function (RBF) neural network is introduced using the RBF neural network to represent the transformed system output. Initially a fixed and moderate sized RBF model base is derived based on a rank revealing orthogonal matrix triangularization (QR decomposition). Then a new fast identification algorithm is introduced using Gauss-Newton algorithm to derive the required Box-Cox transformation, based on a maximum likelihood estimator. The main contribution of this letter is to explore the special structure of the proposed RBF neural network for computational efficiency by utilizing the inverse of matrix block decomposition lemma. Finally, the Box-Cox transformation-based RBF neural network, with good generalization and sparsity, is identified based on the derived optimal Box-Cox transformation and a D-optimality-based orthogonal forward regression algorithm. The proposed algorithm and its efficacy are demonstrated with an illustrative example in comparison with support vector machine regression.

BFLCRM: A BAYESIAN FUNCTIONAL LINEAR COX REGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING TIME TO CONVERSION TO ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE*

PubMed Central

Lee, Eunjee; Zhu, Hongtu; Kong, Dehan; Wang, Yalin; Giovanello, Kelly Sullivan; Ibrahim, Joseph G

2015-01-01

The aim of this paper is to develop a Bayesian functional linear Cox regression model (BFLCRM) with both functional and scalar covariates. This new development is motivated by establishing the likelihood of conversion to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in 346 patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) enrolled in the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative 1 (ADNI-1) and the early markers of conversion. These 346 MCI patients were followed over 48 months, with 161 MCI participants progressing to AD at 48 months. The functional linear Cox regression model was used to establish that functional covariates including hippocampus surface morphology and scalar covariates including brain MRI volumes, cognitive performance (ADAS-Cog), and APOE status can accurately predict time to onset of AD. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. A simulation study is performed to evaluate the finite sample performance of BFLCRM. PMID:26900412

Leigh syndrome associated with a novel mutation in the COX15 gene.

PubMed

Miryounesi, Mohammad; Fardaei, Majid; Tabei, Seyed Mohammadbagher; Ghafouri-Fard, Soudeh

2016-06-01

Leigh syndrome (LS) is a subacute necrotizing encephalomyelopathy with a diverse range of symptoms, such as psychomotor delay or regression, weakness, hypotonia, truncal ataxia, intention tremor as well as lactic acidosis in the blood, cerebrospinal fluid or urine. Both nuclear gene defects and mutations of the mitochondrial genome have been detected in these patients. Here we report a 7-year-old girl with hypotonia, tremor, developmental delay and psychomotor regression. However, serum lactate level as well as brain magnetic resonance imaging were normal. Mutational analysis has revealed a novel mutation in exon 4 of COX15 gene (c.415C>G) which results in p.Leu139Val. Previous studies have demonstrated that COX15 mutations are associated with typical LS as well as fatal infantile hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Consequently, clinical manifestations of COX15 mutations may be significantly different in patients. Such information is of practical importance in genetic counseling.

[Use of multiple regression models in observational studies (1970-2013) and requirements of the STROBE guidelines in Spanish scientific journals].

PubMed

Real, J; Cleries, R; Forné, C; Roso-Llorach, A; Martínez-Sánchez, J M

In medicine and biomedical research, statistical techniques like logistic, linear, Cox and Poisson regression are widely known. The main objective is to describe the evolution of multivariate techniques used in observational studies indexed in PubMed (1970-2013), and to check the requirements of the STROBE guidelines in the author guidelines in Spanish journals indexed in PubMed. A targeted PubMed search was performed to identify papers that used logistic linear Cox and Poisson models. Furthermore, a review was also made of the author guidelines of journals published in Spain and indexed in PubMed and Web of Science. Only 6.1% of the indexed manuscripts included a term related to multivariate analysis, increasing from 0.14% in 1980 to 12.3% in 2013. In 2013, 6.7, 2.5, 3.5, and 0.31% of the manuscripts contained terms related to logistic, linear, Cox and Poisson regression, respectively. On the other hand, 12.8% of journals author guidelines explicitly recommend to follow the STROBE guidelines, and 35.9% recommend the CONSORT guideline. A low percentage of Spanish scientific journals indexed in PubMed include the STROBE statement requirement in the author guidelines. Multivariate regression models in published observational studies such as logistic regression, linear, Cox and Poisson are increasingly used both at international level, as well as in journals published in Spanish. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Multi-omics facilitated variable selection in Cox-regression model for cancer prognosis prediction.

PubMed

Liu, Cong; Wang, Xujun; Genchev, Georgi Z; Lu, Hui

2017-07-15

New developments in high-throughput genomic technologies have enabled the measurement of diverse types of omics biomarkers in a cost-efficient and clinically-feasible manner. Developing computational methods and tools for analysis and translation of such genomic data into clinically-relevant information is an ongoing and active area of investigation. For example, several studies have utilized an unsupervised learning framework to cluster patients by integrating omics data. Despite such recent advances, predicting cancer prognosis using integrated omics biomarkers remains a challenge. There is also a shortage of computational tools for predicting cancer prognosis by using supervised learning methods. The current standard approach is to fit a Cox regression model by concatenating the different types of omics data in a linear manner, while penalty could be added for feature selection. A more powerful approach, however, would be to incorporate data by considering relationships among omics datatypes. Here we developed two methods: a SKI-Cox method and a wLASSO-Cox method to incorporate the association among different types of omics data. Both methods fit the Cox proportional hazards model and predict a risk score based on mRNA expression profiles. SKI-Cox borrows the information generated by these additional types of omics data to guide variable selection, while wLASSO-Cox incorporates this information as a penalty factor during model fitting. We show that SKI-Cox and wLASSO-Cox models select more true variables than a LASSO-Cox model in simulation studies. We assess the performance of SKI-Cox and wLASSO-Cox using TCGA glioblastoma multiforme and lung adenocarcinoma data. In each case, mRNA expression, methylation, and copy number variation data are integrated to predict the overall survival time of cancer patients. Our methods achieve better performance in predicting patients' survival in glioblastoma and lung adenocarcinoma. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The Breslow estimator of the nonparametric baseline survivor function in Cox's regression model: some heuristics.

PubMed

Hanley, James A

2008-01-01

Most survival analysis textbooks explain how the hazard ratio parameters in Cox's life table regression model are estimated. Fewer explain how the components of the nonparametric baseline survivor function are derived. Those that do often relegate the explanation to an "advanced" section and merely present the components as algebraic or iterative solutions to estimating equations. None comment on the structure of these estimators. This note brings out a heuristic representation that may help to de-mystify the structure.

RISK FACTORS FOR CONTACT LENS INDUCED PAPILLARY CONJUNCTIVITIS ASSOCIATED WITH SILICONE HYDROGEL CONTACT LENS WEAR

PubMed Central

Tagliaferri, Angela; Love, Thomas E.; Szczotka-Flynn, Loretta

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND Contact lens induced papillary conjunctivitis (CLPC) continues to be a major cause of dropout during contact lens extended wear. This retrospective study explores risk factors for the development of CLPC during silicone hydrogel lens extended wear. METHODS Data from 205 subjects enrolled in the Longitudinal Analysis of Silicone Hydrogel Contact Lens (LASH) study wearing lotrafilcon A silicone hydrogel lenses for up to 30 days of continuous wear were used to determine risk factors for CLPC in this secondary analysis of the main cohort. The main covariates of interest included substantial lens-associated bacterial bioburden, and topographically determined lens base curve-to-cornea fitting relationships. Additional covariates of interest included history of prior adverse events, time of year, race, education level, gender and other subject demographics. Statistical analyses included univariate logistic regression to assess the impact of potential risk factors on the binary CLPC outcome, and Cox proportional hazards regression to describe the impact of those factors on time-to-CLPC diagnosis. RESULTS Across 12 months of follow-up, 52 subjects (25%) experienced CLPC. No associations were found between CLPC development and the presence of bacterial bioburden, lens-to-cornea fitting relationships, history of prior adverse events, gender or race. CLPC development followed the same seasonal trends as the local peaks in environmental allergans. CONCLUSIONS Lens fit and biodeposits, in the form of lens associated bacterial bioburden, were not associated with the development of CLPC during extended wear with lotrafilcon A silicone hydrogel lenses. PMID:24681609

Use of Cox's Cure Model to Establish Clinical Determinants of Long-Term Disease-Free Survival in Neoadjuvant-Chemotherapy-Treated Breast Cancer Patients without Pathologic Complete Response.

PubMed

Asano, Junichi; Hirakawa, Akihiro; Hamada, Chikuma; Yonemori, Kan; Hirata, Taizo; Shimizu, Chikako; Tamura, Kenji; Fujiwara, Yasuhiro

2013-01-01

In prognostic studies for breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC), the ordinary Cox proportional-hazards (PH) model has been often used to identify prognostic factors for disease-free survival (DFS). This model assumes that all patients eventually experience relapse or death. However, a subset of NAC-treated breast cancer patients never experience these events during long-term follow-up (>10 years) and may be considered clinically "cured." Clinical factors associated with cure have not been studied adequately. Because the ordinary Cox PH model cannot be used to identify such clinical factors, we used the Cox PH cure model, a recently developed statistical method. This model includes both a logistic regression component for the cure rate and a Cox regression component for the hazard for uncured patients. The purpose of this study was to identify the clinical factors associated with cure and the variables associated with the time to recurrence or death in NAC-treated breast cancer patients without a pathologic complete response, by using the Cox PH cure model. We found that hormone receptor status, clinical response, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status, histological grade, and the number of lymph node metastases were associated with cure.

Modeling time-to-event (survival) data using classification tree analysis.

PubMed

Linden, Ariel; Yarnold, Paul R

2017-12-01

Time to the occurrence of an event is often studied in health research. Survival analysis differs from other designs in that follow-up times for individuals who do not experience the event by the end of the study (called censored) are accounted for in the analysis. Cox regression is the standard method for analysing censored data, but the assumptions required of these models are easily violated. In this paper, we introduce classification tree analysis (CTA) as a flexible alternative for modelling censored data. Classification tree analysis is a "decision-tree"-like classification model that provides parsimonious, transparent (ie, easy to visually display and interpret) decision rules that maximize predictive accuracy, derives exact P values via permutation tests, and evaluates model cross-generalizability. Using empirical data, we identify all statistically valid, reproducible, longitudinally consistent, and cross-generalizable CTA survival models and then compare their predictive accuracy to estimates derived via Cox regression and an unadjusted naïve model. Model performance is assessed using integrated Brier scores and a comparison between estimated survival curves. The Cox regression model best predicts average incidence of the outcome over time, whereas CTA survival models best predict either relatively high, or low, incidence of the outcome over time. Classification tree analysis survival models offer many advantages over Cox regression, such as explicit maximization of predictive accuracy, parsimony, statistical robustness, and transparency. Therefore, researchers interested in accurate prognoses and clear decision rules should consider developing models using the CTA-survival framework. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Semi-parametric regression model for survival data: graphical visualization with R

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Cox proportional hazards model is a semi-parametric model that leaves its baseline hazard function unspecified. The rationale to use Cox proportional hazards model is that (I) the underlying form of hazard function is stringent and unrealistic, and (II) researchers are only interested in estimation of how the hazard changes with covariate (relative hazard). Cox regression model can be easily fit with coxph() function in survival package. Stratified Cox model may be used for covariate that violates the proportional hazards assumption. The relative importance of covariates in population can be examined with the rankhazard package in R. Hazard ratio curves for continuous covariates can be visualized using smoothHR package. This curve helps to better understand the effects that each continuous covariate has on the outcome. Population attributable fraction is a classic quantity in epidemiology to evaluate the impact of risk factor on the occurrence of event in the population. In survival analysis, the adjusted/unadjusted attributable fraction can be plotted against survival time to obtain attributable fraction function. PMID:28090517

A global goodness-of-fit statistic for Cox regression models.

PubMed

Parzen, M; Lipsitz, S R

1999-06-01

In this paper, a global goodness-of-fit test statistic for a Cox regression model, which has an approximate chi-squared distribution when the model has been correctly specified, is proposed. Our goodness-of-fit statistic is global and has power to detect if interactions or higher order powers of covariates in the model are needed. The proposed statistic is similar to the Hosmer and Lemeshow (1980, Communications in Statistics A10, 1043-1069) goodness-of-fit statistic for binary data as well as Schoenfeld's (1980, Biometrika 67, 145-153) statistic for the Cox model. The methods are illustrated using data from a Mayo Clinic trial in primary billiary cirrhosis of the liver (Fleming and Harrington, 1991, Counting Processes and Survival Analysis), in which the outcome is the time until liver transplantation or death. The are 17 possible covariates. Two Cox proportional hazards models are fit to the data, and the proposed goodness-of-fit statistic is applied to the fitted models.

The Application of Extended Cox Proportional Hazard Method for Estimating Survival Time of Breast Cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husain, Hartina; Astuti Thamrin, Sri; Tahir, Sulaiha; Mukhlisin, Ahmad; Mirna Apriani, M.

2018-03-01

Breast cancer is one type of cancer that is the leading cause of death worldwide. This study aims to model the factors that affect the survival time and rate of cure of breast cancer patients. The extended cox model, which is a modification of the proportional hazard cox model in which the proportional hazard assumptions are not met, is used in this study. The maximum likelihood estimation approach is used to estimate the parameters of the model. This method is then applied to medical record data of breast cancer patient in 2011-2016, which is taken from Hasanuddin University Education Hospital. The results obtained indicate that the factors that affect the survival time of breast cancer patients are malignancy and leukocyte levels.

Cox proportional hazards model of myopic regression for laser in situ keratomileusis flap creation with a femtosecond laser and with a mechanical microkeratome.

PubMed

Lin, Meng-Yin; Chang, David C K; Hsu, Wen-Ming; Wang, I-Jong

2012-06-01

To compare predictive factors for postoperative myopic regression between laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) with a femtosecond laser and LASIK with a mechanical microkeratome. Nobel Eye Clinic, Taipei, Taiwan. Retrospective comparative study. Refractive outcomes were recorded 1 day, 1 week, and 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months after LASIK. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the impact of the 2 flap-creating methods and other covariates on postoperative myopic regression. The femtosecond group comprised 409 eyes and the mechanical microkeratome group, 377 eyes. For both methods, significant predictors for myopic regression after LASIK included preoperative manifest spherical equivalent (P=.0001) and central corneal thickness (P=.027). Laser in situ keratomileusis with a mechanical microkeratome had a higher probability of postoperative myopic regression than LASIK with a femtosecond laser (P=.0002). After adjusting for other covariates in the Cox proportional hazards model, the cumulative risk for myopic regression with a mechanical microkeratome was higher than with a femtosecond laser 12 months postoperatively (P=.0002). With the definition of myopic regression as a myopic shift of 0.50 diopter (D) or more and residual myopia of -0.50 D or less, the risk estimate based on the mean covariates in all eyes in the femtosecond group and mechanical microkeratome group at 12 months was 43.6% and 66.9%, respectively. Laser in situ keratomileusis with a mechanical microkeratome had a higher risk for myopic regression than LASIK with a femtosecond laser through 12 months postoperatively. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc.

ORACLE INEQUALITIES FOR THE LASSO IN THE COX MODEL

PubMed Central

Huang, Jian; Sun, Tingni; Ying, Zhiliang; Yu, Yi; Zhang, Cun-Hui

2013-01-01

We study the absolute penalized maximum partial likelihood estimator in sparse, high-dimensional Cox proportional hazards regression models where the number of time-dependent covariates can be larger than the sample size. We establish oracle inequalities based on natural extensions of the compatibility and cone invertibility factors of the Hessian matrix at the true regression coefficients. Similar results based on an extension of the restricted eigenvalue can be also proved by our method. However, the presented oracle inequalities are sharper since the compatibility and cone invertibility factors are always greater than the corresponding restricted eigenvalue. In the Cox regression model, the Hessian matrix is based on time-dependent covariates in censored risk sets, so that the compatibility and cone invertibility factors, and the restricted eigenvalue as well, are random variables even when they are evaluated for the Hessian at the true regression coefficients. Under mild conditions, we prove that these quantities are bounded from below by positive constants for time-dependent covariates, including cases where the number of covariates is of greater order than the sample size. Consequently, the compatibility and cone invertibility factors can be treated as positive constants in our oracle inequalities. PMID:24086091

ORACLE INEQUALITIES FOR THE LASSO IN THE COX MODEL.

PubMed

Huang, Jian; Sun, Tingni; Ying, Zhiliang; Yu, Yi; Zhang, Cun-Hui

2013-06-01

We study the absolute penalized maximum partial likelihood estimator in sparse, high-dimensional Cox proportional hazards regression models where the number of time-dependent covariates can be larger than the sample size. We establish oracle inequalities based on natural extensions of the compatibility and cone invertibility factors of the Hessian matrix at the true regression coefficients. Similar results based on an extension of the restricted eigenvalue can be also proved by our method. However, the presented oracle inequalities are sharper since the compatibility and cone invertibility factors are always greater than the corresponding restricted eigenvalue. In the Cox regression model, the Hessian matrix is based on time-dependent covariates in censored risk sets, so that the compatibility and cone invertibility factors, and the restricted eigenvalue as well, are random variables even when they are evaluated for the Hessian at the true regression coefficients. Under mild conditions, we prove that these quantities are bounded from below by positive constants for time-dependent covariates, including cases where the number of covariates is of greater order than the sample size. Consequently, the compatibility and cone invertibility factors can be treated as positive constants in our oracle inequalities.

Cox-nnet: An artificial neural network method for prognosis prediction of high-throughput omics data.

PubMed

Ching, Travers; Zhu, Xun; Garmire, Lana X

2018-04-01

Artificial neural networks (ANN) are computing architectures with many interconnections of simple neural-inspired computing elements, and have been applied to biomedical fields such as imaging analysis and diagnosis. We have developed a new ANN framework called Cox-nnet to predict patient prognosis from high throughput transcriptomics data. In 10 TCGA RNA-Seq data sets, Cox-nnet achieves the same or better predictive accuracy compared to other methods, including Cox-proportional hazards regression (with LASSO, ridge, and mimimax concave penalty), Random Forests Survival and CoxBoost. Cox-nnet also reveals richer biological information, at both the pathway and gene levels. The outputs from the hidden layer node provide an alternative approach for survival-sensitive dimension reduction. In summary, we have developed a new method for accurate and efficient prognosis prediction on high throughput data, with functional biological insights. The source code is freely available at https://github.com/lanagarmire/cox-nnet.

Box-Cox transformation of left-censored data with application to the analysis of coronary artery calcification and pharmacokinetic data.

PubMed

Han, Cong; Kronmal, Richard

2004-12-15

Box-Cox transformation is investigated for regression models for left-censored data. Examples are provided using coronary calcification data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and pharmacokinetic data of a nicotine nasal spray. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predictors of course in obsessive-compulsive disorder: logistic regression versus Cox regression for recurrent events.

PubMed

Kempe, P T; van Oppen, P; de Haan, E; Twisk, J W R; Sluis, A; Smit, J H; van Dyck, R; van Balkom, A J L M

2007-09-01

Two methods for predicting remissions in obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) treatment are evaluated. Y-BOCS measurements of 88 patients with a primary OCD (DSM-III-R) diagnosis were performed over a 16-week treatment period, and during three follow-ups. Remission at any measurement was defined as a Y-BOCS score lower than thirteen combined with a reduction of seven points when compared with baseline. Logistic regression models were compared with a Cox regression for recurrent events model. Logistic regression yielded different models at different evaluation times. The recurrent events model remained stable when fewer measurements were used. Higher baseline levels of neuroticism and more severe OCD symptoms were associated with a lower chance of remission, early age of onset and more depressive symptoms with a higher chance. Choice of outcome time affects logistic regression prediction models. Recurrent events analysis uses all information on remissions and relapses. Short- and long-term predictors for OCD remission show overlap.

Comparison of exact, efron and breslow parameter approach method on hazard ratio and stratified cox regression model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatekurohman, Mohamat; Nurmala, Nita; Anggraeni, Dian

2018-04-01

Lungs are the most important organ, in the case of respiratory system. Problems related to disorder of the lungs are various, i.e. pneumonia, emphysema, tuberculosis and lung cancer. Comparing all those problems, lung cancer is the most harmful. Considering about that, the aim of this research applies survival analysis and factors affecting the endurance of the lung cancer patient using comparison of exact, Efron and Breslow parameter approach method on hazard ratio and stratified cox regression model. The data applied are based on the medical records of lung cancer patients in Jember Paru-paru hospital on 2016, east java, Indonesia. The factors affecting the endurance of the lung cancer patients can be classified into several criteria, i.e. sex, age, hemoglobin, leukocytes, erythrocytes, sedimentation rate of blood, therapy status, general condition, body weight. The result shows that exact method of stratified cox regression model is better than other. On the other hand, the endurance of the patients is affected by their age and the general conditions.

A simple linear regression method for quantitative trait loci linkage analysis with censored observations.

PubMed

Anderson, Carl A; McRae, Allan F; Visscher, Peter M

2006-07-01

Standard quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping techniques commonly assume that the trait is both fully observed and normally distributed. When considering survival or age-at-onset traits these assumptions are often incorrect. Methods have been developed to map QTL for survival traits; however, they are both computationally intensive and not available in standard genome analysis software packages. We propose a grouped linear regression method for the analysis of continuous survival data. Using simulation we compare this method to both the Cox and Weibull proportional hazards models and a standard linear regression method that ignores censoring. The grouped linear regression method is of equivalent power to both the Cox and Weibull proportional hazards methods and is significantly better than the standard linear regression method when censored observations are present. The method is also robust to the proportion of censored individuals and the underlying distribution of the trait. On the basis of linear regression methodology, the grouped linear regression model is computationally simple and fast and can be implemented readily in freely available statistical software.

Radical Surgery Improves Survival in Patients with Stage 4 Neuroblastoma.

PubMed

Vollmer, Katherin; Gfroerer, Stefan; Theilen, Till-Martin; Bochennek, Konrad; Klingebiel, Thomas; Rolle, Udo; Fiegel, Henning

2018-06-01

Neuroblastoma (NBL) is the most common extracranial solid tumor in children. Despite a good overall prognosis in NBL patients, the outcome of children with stage 4 disease, even with multimodal intensive therapy, remains poor. The role of extended surgical resection of the primary tumor is in numerous studies controversial. The aim of this study was to retrospectively analyze the impact of radical surgical resection on the overall- and event-free survival of stage 4 NBL patients. We retrospectively analyzed patient charts of 40 patients with stage 4 NBL treated in our institution between January 1990 and May 2012. All clinical and pathological findings of stage 4 NBL patients were included. Extent of surgery was assessed from the operation records and was classified as non-radical (tumor biopsy, partial 50-90% resection) or radical (near-complete >90% resection, complete resection). Overall- (OS) and event-free (EFS) survival was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank test. A multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to demonstrate independency. In total, 29/40 patients were operated radically (>90% resection), whereas 11 patients received subtotal resection or biopsy only. OS and EFS were significantly increased in patients with radical operation compared with non-radical resection (p = 0.0003 for OS, p = 0.004 for EFS; log-rank test). A multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed radical operation as a significant and independent parameter for OS and EFS. Our data indicate that radical (over 90% resection) surgery improves OS and EFS in stage 4 NBL patients.

Joint impact of donor and recipient parameters on the outcome of liver transplantation in Germany.

PubMed

Frühauf, Nils R; Fischer-Fröhlich, Carl-Ludwig; Kutschmann, Marcus; Schmidtmann, Irene; Kirste, Günter

2011-12-27

The shortage of donor organs in Germany has led to the use of organs from donors with extended donor criteria (EDC). EDC have been defined on the basis of expert opinions, but their clinical relevance is controversial. This may cause loss of organs otherwise available for transplantation. We evaluated the impact of donor and recipient factors in liver transplants on patient and graft survival in a nationwide multicenter analysis, with special focus on EDC and donor risk index. A database was created from data on livers donated and transplanted in Germany between 2006 and 2008 as provided by Deutsche Stiftung Organ transplantation and BQS Institute. Cox regression (significance level 5%, risk ratio [95% confidence interval]) was used for calculating the impact on patient survival (n=2095) and on graft survival (n=2175). Patient and graft survival were significantly affected only by donor age (1.012 and 1.011/year), recipient age (1.019 and 1.014/year), creatinine (1.248 and 1.205/mg/dL), bilirubin (1.022 and 1.023/mg/dL), and high urgency status (1.783 and 1.809). Inferior organ quality resulted in lower graft survival (1.243) and donor history of smoking in lower patient survival (1.249). Multiple Cox regression revealed no significant impact of EDC or donor risk index on patient and graft survival except for donor age after donor selection at recovery. Among recipient variables, only age, creatinine and bilirubin, and high urgency status were associated with poorer outcome.

Personality predicts time to remission and clinical status in hypochondriasis during a 6-year follow-up.

PubMed

Greeven, Anja; van Balkom, Anton J L M; Spinhoven, Philip

2014-05-01

We aimed to investigate whether personality characteristics predict time to remission and psychiatric status. The follow-up was at most 6 years and was performed within the scope of a randomized controlled trial that investigated the efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy, paroxetine, and placebo in hypochondriasis. The Life Chart Interview was administered to investigate for each year if remission had occurred. Personality was assessed at pretest by the Abbreviated Dutch Temperament and Character Inventory. Cox's regression models for recurrent events were compared with logistic regression models. Sixteen (36.4%) of 44 patients achieved remission during the follow-up period. Cox's regression yielded approximately the same results as the logistic regression. Being less harm avoidant and more cooperative were associated with a shorter time to remission and a remitted state after the follow-up period. Personality variables seem to be relevant for describing patients with a more chronic course of hypochondriacal complaints.

Cox-nnet: An artificial neural network method for prognosis prediction of high-throughput omics data

PubMed Central

Ching, Travers; Zhu, Xun

2018-01-01

Artificial neural networks (ANN) are computing architectures with many interconnections of simple neural-inspired computing elements, and have been applied to biomedical fields such as imaging analysis and diagnosis. We have developed a new ANN framework called Cox-nnet to predict patient prognosis from high throughput transcriptomics data. In 10 TCGA RNA-Seq data sets, Cox-nnet achieves the same or better predictive accuracy compared to other methods, including Cox-proportional hazards regression (with LASSO, ridge, and mimimax concave penalty), Random Forests Survival and CoxBoost. Cox-nnet also reveals richer biological information, at both the pathway and gene levels. The outputs from the hidden layer node provide an alternative approach for survival-sensitive dimension reduction. In summary, we have developed a new method for accurate and efficient prognosis prediction on high throughput data, with functional biological insights. The source code is freely available at https://github.com/lanagarmire/cox-nnet. PMID:29634719

Effects of electroacupuncture on luteal regression and steroidogenesis in ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome model rat.

PubMed

Huang, Xuan; Chen, Li; Xia, You-Bing; Xie, Min; Sun, Qin; Yao, Bing

2018-03-15

Electroacupuncture (EA) is an effective and safe therapeutic method widely used for treating clinical diseases. Previously, we found that EA could decrease serum hormones and reduce ovarian size in ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS) rat model. Nevertheless, the mechanisms that contribute to these improvements remain unclear. HE staining was used to count the number of corpora lutea (CL) and follicles. Immunohistochemical and ELISA were applied to examine luteal functional and structural regression. Immunoprecipitation was used for analyzing the interaction between NPY (neuropeptide Y) and COX-2; western blotting and qRT-PCR were used to evaluate the expressions of steroidogenic enzymes and PKA/CREB pathway. EA treatment significantly reduced the ovarian weight and the number of CL, also decreased ovarian and serum levels of PGE2 and COX-2 expression; increased ovarian PGF2α levels and PGF2α/PGE2 ratio; decreased PCNA expression and distribution; and increased cyclin regulatory inhibitor p27 expression to have further effect on the luteal formation, and promote luteal functional and structural regression. Moreover, expression of COX-2 in ovaries was possessed interactivity increased expression of NPY. Furthermore, EA treatment lowered the serum hormone levels, inhibited PKA/CREB pathway and decreased the expressions of steroidogenic enzymes. Hence, interaction with COX-2, NPY may affect the levels of PGF2α and PGE2 as well as impact the proliferation of granulosa cells in ovaries, thus further reducing the luteal formation, and promoting luteal structural and functional regression, as well as the ovarian steroidogenesis following EA treatment. EA treatment could be an option for preventing OHSS in ART. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Molecular Classification Substitutes for the Prognostic Variables Stage, Age, and MYCN Status in Neuroblastoma Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Rosswog, Carolina; Schmidt, Rene; Oberthuer, André; Juraeva, Dilafruz; Brors, Benedikt; Engesser, Anne; Kahlert, Yvonne; Volland, Ruth; Bartenhagen, Christoph; Simon, Thorsten; Berthold, Frank; Hero, Barbara; Faldum, Andreas; Fischer, Matthias

2017-12-01

Current risk stratification systems for neuroblastoma patients consider clinical, histopathological, and genetic variables, and additional prognostic markers have been proposed in recent years. We here sought to select highly informative covariates in a multistep strategy based on consecutive Cox regression models, resulting in a risk score that integrates hazard ratios of prognostic variables. A cohort of 695 neuroblastoma patients was divided into a discovery set (n=75) for multigene predictor generation, a training set (n=411) for risk score development, and a validation set (n=209). Relevant prognostic variables were identified by stepwise multivariable L1-penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, followed by backward selection in multivariable Cox regression, and then integrated into a novel risk score. The variables stage, age, MYCN status, and two multigene predictors, NB-th24 and NB-th44, were selected as independent prognostic markers by LASSO Cox regression analysis. Following backward selection, only the multigene predictors were retained in the final model. Integration of these classifiers in a risk scoring system distinguished three patient subgroups that differed substantially in their outcome. The scoring system discriminated patients with diverging outcome in the validation cohort (5-year event-free survival, 84.9±3.4 vs 63.6±14.5 vs 31.0±5.4; P<.001), and its prognostic value was validated by multivariable analysis. We here propose a translational strategy for developing risk assessment systems based on hazard ratios of relevant prognostic variables. Our final neuroblastoma risk score comprised two multigene predictors only, supporting the notion that molecular properties of the tumor cells strongly impact clinical courses of neuroblastoma patients. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Random Survival Forest in practice: a method for modelling complex metabolomics data in time to event analysis.

PubMed

Dietrich, Stefan; Floegel, Anna; Troll, Martina; Kühn, Tilman; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Peters, Anette; Sookthai, Disorn; von Bergen, Martin; Kaaks, Rudolf; Adamski, Jerzy; Prehn, Cornelia; Boeing, Heiner; Schulze, Matthias B; Illig, Thomas; Pischon, Tobias; Knüppel, Sven; Wang-Sattler, Rui; Drogan, Dagmar

2016-10-01

The application of metabolomics in prospective cohort studies is statistically challenging. Given the importance of appropriate statistical methods for selection of disease-associated metabolites in highly correlated complex data, we combined random survival forest (RSF) with an automated backward elimination procedure that addresses such issues. Our RSF approach was illustrated with data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam study, with concentrations of 127 serum metabolites as exposure variables and time to development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) as outcome variable. Out of this data set, Cox regression with a stepwise selection method was recently published. Replication of methodical comparison (RSF and Cox regression) was conducted in two independent cohorts. Finally, the R-code for implementing the metabolite selection procedure into the RSF-syntax is provided. The application of the RSF approach in EPIC-Potsdam resulted in the identification of 16 incident T2D-associated metabolites which slightly improved prediction of T2D when used in addition to traditional T2D risk factors and also when used together with classical biomarkers. The identified metabolites partly agreed with previous findings using Cox regression, though RSF selected a higher number of highly correlated metabolites. The RSF method appeared to be a promising approach for identification of disease-associated variables in complex data with time to event as outcome. The demonstrated RSF approach provides comparable findings as the generally used Cox regression, but also addresses the problem of multicollinearity and is suitable for high-dimensional data. © The Author 2016; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Evaluation of methodology for the analysis of 'time-to-event' data in pharmacogenomic genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Syed, Hamzah; Jorgensen, Andrea L; Morris, Andrew P

2016-06-01

To evaluate the power to detect associations between SNPs and time-to-event outcomes across a range of pharmacogenomic study designs while comparing alternative regression approaches. Simulations were conducted to compare Cox proportional hazards modeling accounting for censoring and logistic regression modeling of a dichotomized outcome at the end of the study. The Cox proportional hazards model was demonstrated to be more powerful than the logistic regression analysis. The difference in power between the approaches was highly dependent on the rate of censoring. Initial evaluation of single-nucleotide polymorphism association signals using computationally efficient software with dichotomized outcomes provides an effective screening tool for some design scenarios, and thus has important implications for the development of analytical protocols in pharmacogenomic studies.

Experiments to Determine Whether Recursive Partitioning (CART) or an Artificial Neural Network Overcomes Theoretical Limitations of Cox Proportional Hazards Regression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kattan, Michael W.; Hess, Kenneth R.; Kattan, Michael W.

1998-01-01

New computationally intensive tools for medical survival analyses include recursive partitioning (also called CART) and artificial neural networks. A challenge that remains is to better understand the behavior of these techniques in effort to know when they will be effective tools. Theoretically they may overcome limitations of the traditional multivariable survival technique, the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Experiments were designed to test whether the new tools would, in practice, overcome these limitations. Two datasets in which theory suggests CART and the neural network should outperform the Cox model were selected. The first was a published leukemia dataset manipulated to have a strong interaction that CART should detect. The second was a published cirrhosis dataset with pronounced nonlinear effects that a neural network should fit. Repeated sampling of 50 training and testing subsets was applied to each technique. The concordance index C was calculated as a measure of predictive accuracy by each technique on the testing dataset. In the interaction dataset, CART outperformed Cox (P less than 0.05) with a C improvement of 0.1 (95% Cl, 0.08 to 0.12). In the nonlinear dataset, the neural network outperformed the Cox model (P less than 0.05), but by a very slight amount (0.015). As predicted by theory, CART and the neural network were able to overcome limitations of the Cox model. Experiments like these are important to increase our understanding of when one of these new techniques will outperform the standard Cox model. Further research is necessary to predict which technique will do best a priori and to assess the magnitude of superiority.

Design, Synthesis, and Evaluation of New Tripeptides as COX-2 Inhibitors.

PubMed

Vernieri, Ermelinda; Gomez-Monterrey, Isabel; Milite, Ciro; Grieco, Paolo; Musella, Simona; Bertamino, Alessia; Scognamiglio, Ilaria; Alcaro, Stefano; Artese, Anna; Ortuso, Francesco; Novellino, Ettore; Sala, Marina; Campiglia, Pietro

2013-01-01

Cyclooxygenase (COX) is a key enzyme in the biosynthetic pathway leading to the formation of prostaglandins, which are mediators of inflammation. It exists mainly in two isoforms COX-1 and COX-2. The conventional nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) have gastrointestinal side effects because they inhibit both isoforms. Recent data demonstrate that the overexpression of these enzymes, and in particular of cyclooxygenases-2, promotes multiple events involved in tumorigenesis; in addition, numerous studies show that the inhibition of cyclooxygenases-2 can delay or prevent certain forms of cancer. Agents that inhibit COX-2 while sparing COX-1 represent a new attractive therapeutic development and offer a new perspective for a further use of COX-2 inhibitors. The present study extends the evaluation of the COX activity to all 20(3) possible natural tripeptide sequences following a rational approach consisting in molecular modeling, synthesis, and biological tests. Based on data obtained from virtual screening, only those peptides with better profile of affinity have been selected and classified into two groups called S and E. Our results suggest that these novel compounds may have potential as structural templates for the design and subsequent development of the new selective COX-2 inhibitors drugs.

Relevant factors for the optimal duration of extended endocrine therapy in early breast cancer.

PubMed

Blok, Erik J; Kroep, Judith R; Meershoek-Klein Kranenbarg, Elma; Duijm-de Carpentier, Marjolijn; Putter, Hein; Liefers, Gerrit-Jan; Nortier, Johan W R; Rutgers, Emiel J Th; Seynaeve, Caroline M; van de Velde, Cornelis J H

2018-04-01

For postmenopausal patients with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer, the optimal subgroup and duration of extended endocrine therapy is not clear yet. The aim of this study using the IDEAL patient cohort was to identify a subgroup for which longer (5 years) extended therapy is beneficial over shorter (2.5 years) extended endocrine therapy. In the IDEAL trial, 1824 patients who completed 5 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy (either 5 years of tamoxifen (12%), 5 years of an AI (29%), or a sequential strategy of both (59%)) were randomized between either 2.5 or 5 years of extended letrozole. For each prior therapy subgroup, the value of longer therapy was assessed for both node-negative and node-positive patients using Kaplan Meier and Cox regression survival analyses. In node-positive patients, there was a significant benefit of 5 years (over 2.5 years) of extended therapy (disease-free survival (DFS) HR 0.67, p = 0.03, 95% CI 0.47-0.96). This effect was only observed in patients who were treated initially with a sequential scheme (DFS HR 0.60, p = 0.03, 95% CI 0.38-0.95). In all other subgroups, there was no significant benefit of longer extended therapy. Similar results were found in patients who were randomized for their initial adjuvant therapy in the TEAM trial (DFS HR 0.37, p = 0.07, 95% CI 0.13-1.06), although this additional analysis was underpowered for definite conclusions. This study suggests that node-positive patients could benefit from longer extended endocrine therapy, although this effect appears isolated to patients treated with sequential endocrine therapy during the first 5 years and needs validation and long-term follow-up.

Survival analysis of postoperative nausea and vomiting in patients receiving patient-controlled epidural analgesia.

PubMed

Lee, Shang-Yi; Hung, Chih-Jen; Chen, Chih-Chieh; Wu, Chih-Cheng

2014-11-01

Postoperative nausea and vomiting as well as postoperative pain are two major concerns when patients undergo surgery and receive anesthetics. Various models and predictive methods have been developed to investigate the risk factors of postoperative nausea and vomiting, and different types of preventive managements have subsequently been developed. However, there continues to be a wide variation in the previously reported incidence rates of postoperative nausea and vomiting. This may have occurred because patients were assessed at different time points, coupled with the overall limitation of the statistical methods used. However, using survival analysis with Cox regression, and thus factoring in these time effects, may solve this statistical limitation and reveal risk factors related to the occurrence of postoperative nausea and vomiting in the following period. In this retrospective, observational, uni-institutional study, we analyzed the results of 229 patients who received patient-controlled epidural analgesia following surgery from June 2007 to December 2007. We investigated the risk factors for the occurrence of postoperative nausea and vomiting, and also assessed the effect of evaluating patients at different time points using the Cox proportional hazards model. Furthermore, the results of this inquiry were compared with those results using logistic regression. The overall incidence of postoperative nausea and vomiting in our study was 35.4%. Using logistic regression, we found that only sex, but not the total doses and the average dose of opioids, had significant effects on the occurrence of postoperative nausea and vomiting at some time points. Cox regression showed that, when patients consumed a higher average dose of opioids, this correlated with a higher incidence of postoperative nausea and vomiting with a hazard ratio of 1.286. Survival analysis using Cox regression showed that the average consumption of opioids played an important role in postoperative nausea and vomiting, a result not found by logistic regression. Therefore, the incidence of postoperative nausea and vomiting in patients cannot be reliably determined on the basis of a single visit at one point in time. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Taiwan.

Factors determining disease duration in Alzheimer's disease: a postmortem study of 103 cases using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox regression.

PubMed

Armstrong, R A

2014-01-01

Factors associated with duration of dementia in a consecutive series of 103 Alzheimer's disease (AD) cases were studied using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox regression analysis (proportional hazard model). Mean disease duration was 7.1 years (range: 6 weeks-30 years, standard deviation = 5.18); 25% of cases died within four years, 50% within 6.9 years, and 75% within 10 years. Familial AD cases (FAD) had a longer duration than sporadic cases (SAD), especially cases linked to presenilin (PSEN) genes. No significant differences in duration were associated with age, sex, or apolipoprotein E (Apo E) genotype. Duration was reduced in cases with arterial hypertension. Cox regression analysis suggested longer duration was associated with an earlier disease onset and increased senile plaque (SP) and neurofibrillary tangle (NFT) pathology in the orbital gyrus (OrG), CA1 sector of the hippocampus, and nucleus basalis of Meynert (NBM). The data suggest shorter disease duration in SAD and in cases with hypertensive comorbidity. In addition, degree of neuropathology did not influence survival, but spread of SP/NFT pathology into the frontal lobe, hippocampus, and basal forebrain was associated with longer disease duration.

Comparison of Cox's Regression Model and Parametric Models in Evaluating the Prognostic Factors for Survival after Liver Transplantation in Shiraz during 2000-2012.

PubMed

Adelian, R; Jamali, J; Zare, N; Ayatollahi, S M T; Pooladfar, G R; Roustaei, N

2015-01-01

Identification of the prognostic factors for survival in patients with liver transplantation is challengeable. Various methods of survival analysis have provided different, sometimes contradictory, results from the same data. To compare Cox's regression model with parametric models for determining the independent factors for predicting adults' and pediatrics' survival after liver transplantation. This study was conducted on 183 pediatric patients and 346 adults underwent liver transplantation in Namazi Hospital, Shiraz, southern Iran. The study population included all patients undergoing liver transplantation from 2000 to 2012. The prognostic factors sex, age, Child class, initial diagnosis of the liver disease, PELD/MELD score, and pre-operative laboratory markers were selected for survival analysis. Among 529 patients, 346 (64.5%) were adult and 183 (34.6%) were pediatric cases. Overall, the lognormal distribution was the best-fitting model for adult and pediatric patients. Age in adults (HR=1.16, p<0.05) and weight (HR=2.68, p<0.01) and Child class B (HR=2.12, p<0.05) in pediatric patients were the most important factors for prediction of survival after liver transplantation. Adult patients younger than the mean age and pediatric patients weighing above the mean and Child class A (compared to those with classes B or C) had better survival. Parametric regression model is a good alternative for the Cox's regression model.

Survival analysis of cervical cancer using stratified Cox regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purnami, S. W.; Inayati, K. D.; Sari, N. W. Wulan; Chosuvivatwong, V.; Sriplung, H.

2016-04-01

Cervical cancer is one of the mostly widely cancer cause of the women death in the world including Indonesia. Most cervical cancer patients come to the hospital already in an advanced stadium. As a result, the treatment of cervical cancer becomes more difficult and even can increase the death's risk. One of parameter that can be used to assess successfully of treatment is the probability of survival. This study raises the issue of cervical cancer survival patients at Dr. Soetomo Hospital using stratified Cox regression based on six factors such as age, stadium, treatment initiation, companion disease, complication, and anemia. Stratified Cox model is used because there is one independent variable that does not satisfy the proportional hazards assumption that is stadium. The results of the stratified Cox model show that the complication variable is significant factor which influent survival probability of cervical cancer patient. The obtained hazard ratio is 7.35. It means that cervical cancer patient who has complication is at risk of dying 7.35 times greater than patient who did not has complication. While the adjusted survival curves showed that stadium IV had the lowest probability of survival.

Empirical extensions of the lasso penalty to reduce the false discovery rate in high-dimensional Cox regression models.

PubMed

Ternès, Nils; Rotolo, Federico; Michiels, Stefan

2016-07-10

Correct selection of prognostic biomarkers among multiple candidates is becoming increasingly challenging as the dimensionality of biological data becomes higher. Therefore, minimizing the false discovery rate (FDR) is of primary importance, while a low false negative rate (FNR) is a complementary measure. The lasso is a popular selection method in Cox regression, but its results depend heavily on the penalty parameter λ. Usually, λ is chosen using maximum cross-validated log-likelihood (max-cvl). However, this method has often a very high FDR. We review methods for a more conservative choice of λ. We propose an empirical extension of the cvl by adding a penalization term, which trades off between the goodness-of-fit and the parsimony of the model, leading to the selection of fewer biomarkers and, as we show, to the reduction of the FDR without large increase in FNR. We conducted a simulation study considering null and moderately sparse alternative scenarios and compared our approach with the standard lasso and 10 other competitors: Akaike information criterion (AIC), corrected AIC, Bayesian information criterion (BIC), extended BIC, Hannan and Quinn information criterion (HQIC), risk information criterion (RIC), one-standard-error rule, adaptive lasso, stability selection, and percentile lasso. Our extension achieved the best compromise across all the scenarios between a reduction of the FDR and a limited raise of the FNR, followed by the AIC, the RIC, and the adaptive lasso, which performed well in some settings. We illustrate the methods using gene expression data of 523 breast cancer patients. In conclusion, we propose to apply our extension to the lasso whenever a stringent FDR with a limited FNR is targeted. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Box-Cox transformation of firm size data in statistical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ting Ting; Takaishi, Tetsuya

2014-03-01

Firm size data usually do not show the normality that is often assumed in statistical analysis such as regression analysis. In this study we focus on two firm size data: the number of employees and sale. Those data deviate considerably from a normal distribution. To improve the normality of those data we transform them by the Box-Cox transformation with appropriate parameters. The Box-Cox transformation parameters are determined so that the transformed data best show the kurtosis of a normal distribution. It is found that the two firm size data transformed by the Box-Cox transformation show strong linearity. This indicates that the number of employees and sale have the similar property as a firm size indicator. The Box-Cox parameters obtained for the firm size data are found to be very close to zero. In this case the Box-Cox transformations are approximately a log-transformation. This suggests that the firm size data we used are approximately log-normal distributions.

Censored quantile regression with recursive partitioning-based weights

PubMed Central

Wey, Andrew; Wang, Lan; Rudser, Kyle

2014-01-01

Censored quantile regression provides a useful alternative to the Cox proportional hazards model for analyzing survival data. It directly models the conditional quantile of the survival time and hence is easy to interpret. Moreover, it relaxes the proportionality constraint on the hazard function associated with the popular Cox model and is natural for modeling heterogeneity of the data. Recently, Wang and Wang (2009. Locally weighted censored quantile regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association 103, 1117–1128) proposed a locally weighted censored quantile regression approach that allows for covariate-dependent censoring and is less restrictive than other censored quantile regression methods. However, their kernel smoothing-based weighting scheme requires all covariates to be continuous and encounters practical difficulty with even a moderate number of covariates. We propose a new weighting approach that uses recursive partitioning, e.g. survival trees, that offers greater flexibility in handling covariate-dependent censoring in moderately high dimensions and can incorporate both continuous and discrete covariates. We prove that this new weighting scheme leads to consistent estimation of the quantile regression coefficients and demonstrate its effectiveness via Monte Carlo simulations. We also illustrate the new method using a widely recognized data set from a clinical trial on primary biliary cirrhosis. PMID:23975800

Big Data Toolsets to Pharmacometrics: Application of Machine Learning for Time‐to‐Event Analysis

PubMed Central

Gong, Xiajing; Hu, Meng

2018-01-01

Abstract Additional value can be potentially created by applying big data tools to address pharmacometric problems. The performances of machine learning (ML) methods and the Cox regression model were evaluated based on simulated time‐to‐event data synthesized under various preset scenarios, i.e., with linear vs. nonlinear and dependent vs. independent predictors in the proportional hazard function, or with high‐dimensional data featured by a large number of predictor variables. Our results showed that ML‐based methods outperformed the Cox model in prediction performance as assessed by concordance index and in identifying the preset influential variables for high‐dimensional data. The prediction performances of ML‐based methods are also less sensitive to data size and censoring rates than the Cox regression model. In conclusion, ML‐based methods provide a powerful tool for time‐to‐event analysis, with a built‐in capacity for high‐dimensional data and better performance when the predictor variables assume nonlinear relationships in the hazard function. PMID:29536640

Immunohistochemical and morphometric evaluation of COX-1 and COX-2 in the remodeled lung in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and systemic sclerosis* ,**

PubMed Central

Parra, Edwin Roger; Lin, Flavia; Martins, Vanessa; Rangel, Maristela Peres; Capelozzi, Vera Luiza

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To study the expression of COX-1 and COX-2 in the remodeled lung in systemic sclerosis (SSc) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) patients, correlating that expression with patient survival. METHODS: We examined open lung biopsy specimens from 24 SSc patients and 30 IPF patients, using normal lung tissue as a control. The histological patterns included fibrotic nonspecific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP) in SSc patients and usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) in IPF patients. We used immunohistochemistry and histomorphometry to evaluate the expression of COX-1 and COX-2 in alveolar septa, vessels, and bronchioles. We then correlated that expression with pulmonary function test results and evaluated its impact on patient survival. RESULTS: The expression of COX-1 and COX-2 in alveolar septa was significantly higher in IPF-UIP and SSc-NSIP lung tissue than in the control tissue. No difference was found between IPF-UIP and SSc-NSIP tissue regarding COX-1 and COX-2 expression. Multivariate analysis based on the Cox regression model showed that the factors associated with a low risk of death were younger age, high DLCO/alveolar volume, IPF, and high COX-1 expression in alveolar septa, whereas those associated with a high risk of death were advanced age, low DLCO/alveolar volume, SSc (with NSIP), and low COX-1 expression in alveolar septa. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that strategies aimed at preventing low COX-1 synthesis will have a greater impact on SSc, whereas those aimed at preventing high COX-2 synthesis will have a greater impact on IPF. However, prospective randomized clinical trials are needed in order to confirm that. PMID:24473763

Usefulness of overnight pulse oximeter as the sleep assessment tool to assess the 6-year risk of road traffic collision: evidence from the Taiwan Bus Driver Cohort Study.

PubMed

Wu, Wei-Te; Tsai, Su-Shan; Liao, Hui-Yi; Lin, Yu-Jen; Lin, Ming-Hsiu; Wu, Trong-Neng; Shih, Tung-Sheng; Liou, Saou-Hsing

2017-02-01

In order to support health service organizations in arranging a system for prevention of road traffic collisions (RTC), it is important to study the usefulness of sleep assessment tools. A cohort study was used to evaluate the effectiveness of subjective and objective sleep assessment tools to assess for the 6-year risk of both first RTC event only and recurrent RTC events. The Taiwan Bus Driver Cohort Study (TBDCS) recruited 1650 professional drivers from a large bus company in Taiwan in 2005. The subjects were interviewed in person, completed the sleep assessment questionnaires and had an overnight pulse oximeter survey. Moreover, this cohort of drivers was linked to the National Traffic Accident Database (NTAD) and researchers found 139 new RTC events from 2005 to 2010. Primary outcomes were traffic collisions from NTAD, nocturnal oxygen desaturation index (ODI) from pulse oximeter, Pittsburg sleeping quality score, Epworth daytime sleepiness score, Snore Outcomes Survey score and working patterns from questionnaires. A Cox proportional hazards model and an extended Cox regression model for repeated events were performed to estimate the hazard ratio for RTC. The RTC drivers had increased ODI4 levels (5.77 ± 4.72 vs 4.99 ± 6.68 events/h; P  = 0.008) and ODI3 levels (8.68 ± 6.79 vs 7.42 ± 7.94 events/h; P  = 0.007) in comparison with non-RTC drivers. These results were consistent regardless of whether ODI was evaluated as a continuous or a categorical variable. ODI4 and ODI3 levels increased the 6-year RTC risks among professional drivers even after adjusting for age, education, history of cardiovascular disease, caffeine intake, sleeping pills used, bus driving experience and shift modes. Moreover, there was an increased trend for ODI between the stratification of the number of RTCs in comparison with the non-RTC group. In the extended Cox regression models for repeated RTC events with the Anderson and Gill intensity model and Prentice-Williams-Petersen model, measurement of ODI increased hazards of the subsequent RTC events. This study showed that an increase in the 6-year risk of RTC was associated with objective measurement of ODI for a sign of sleep-disordered breathing (SDB), but was not associated with self-reported sleeping quality or daytime sleepiness. Therefore, the overnight pulse oximeter is an effective sleep assessment tool for assessing the risk of RTC. Further research should be conducted regarding measures to prevent against SDB among professional drivers. © The Author 2016; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

Immunohistochemical localization of cyclooxygenase isoforms in the organ of Corti and the spiral ganglion cells of guinea pig cochlea.

PubMed

Ziegler, E A; Brieger, J; Heinrich, U R; Mann, W J

2004-01-01

Prostaglandins have been used in experimental models and clinical studies for the therapy of sudden hearing loss and tinnitus with conflicting results. However, little is known about the rate-limiting enzymes of prostaglandin synthesis in the inner ear, the generally constitutively expressed cyclooxygenase 1 (COX-1) and the distress-inducible cyclooxygenase 2 (COX-2). To extend our knowledge concerning the physiological expression and localization of these two enzymes, immunohistochemical stainings of the guinea pig cochlea were performed. Light microscopical analysis revealed a homogenous distribution of COX-1 within nearly all cell types of the organ of Corti, but no COX-1 expression in the cuticular plates of pillar cells. COX-2 was found to be expressed in all cell types, with much stronger expression in Hensen cells, neighboring Deiters cells and cuticular plates of outer hair cells. Both COX-1 and COX-2 immunoreactions were also found in the spiral ganglion. We conclude that both COX subtypes are expressed in the guinea pig cochlea under physiological conditions. The prominent expression of the distress-inducible COX-2 isoform in cell types under mechanical stress during noise reception might support the hypothesis of a cytoprotective function of COX products in hearing and in cellular stress situations like intense noise exposure. Copyright (c) 2004 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Quantile Regression with Censored Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Guixian

2009-01-01

The Cox proportional hazards model and the accelerated failure time model are frequently used in survival data analysis. They are powerful, yet have limitation due to their model assumptions. Quantile regression offers a semiparametric approach to model data with possible heterogeneity. It is particularly powerful for censored responses, where the…

Bayesian inference for multivariate meta-analysis Box-Cox transformation models for individual patient data with applications to evaluation of cholesterol lowering drugs

PubMed Central

Kim, Sungduk; Chen, Ming-Hui; Ibrahim, Joseph G.; Shah, Arvind K.; Lin, Jianxin

2013-01-01

In this paper, we propose a class of Box-Cox transformation regression models with multidimensional random effects for analyzing multivariate responses for individual patient data (IPD) in meta-analysis. Our modeling formulation uses a multivariate normal response meta-analysis model with multivariate random effects, in which each response is allowed to have its own Box-Cox transformation. Prior distributions are specified for the Box-Cox transformation parameters as well as the regression coefficients in this complex model, and the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is used to select the best transformation model. Since the model is quite complex, a novel Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) sampling scheme is developed to sample from the joint posterior of the parameters. This model is motivated by a very rich dataset comprising 26 clinical trials involving cholesterol lowering drugs where the goal is to jointly model the three dimensional response consisting of Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL-C), High Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (HDL-C), and Triglycerides (TG) (LDL-C, HDL-C, TG). Since the joint distribution of (LDL-C, HDL-C, TG) is not multivariate normal and in fact quite skewed, a Box-Cox transformation is needed to achieve normality. In the clinical literature, these three variables are usually analyzed univariately: however, a multivariate approach would be more appropriate since these variables are correlated with each other. A detailed analysis of these data is carried out using the proposed methodology. PMID:23580436

Bayesian inference for multivariate meta-analysis Box-Cox transformation models for individual patient data with applications to evaluation of cholesterol-lowering drugs.

PubMed

Kim, Sungduk; Chen, Ming-Hui; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Shah, Arvind K; Lin, Jianxin

2013-10-15

In this paper, we propose a class of Box-Cox transformation regression models with multidimensional random effects for analyzing multivariate responses for individual patient data in meta-analysis. Our modeling formulation uses a multivariate normal response meta-analysis model with multivariate random effects, in which each response is allowed to have its own Box-Cox transformation. Prior distributions are specified for the Box-Cox transformation parameters as well as the regression coefficients in this complex model, and the deviance information criterion is used to select the best transformation model. Because the model is quite complex, we develop a novel Monte Carlo Markov chain sampling scheme to sample from the joint posterior of the parameters. This model is motivated by a very rich dataset comprising 26 clinical trials involving cholesterol-lowering drugs where the goal is to jointly model the three-dimensional response consisting of low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TG) (LDL-C, HDL-C, TG). Because the joint distribution of (LDL-C, HDL-C, TG) is not multivariate normal and in fact quite skewed, a Box-Cox transformation is needed to achieve normality. In the clinical literature, these three variables are usually analyzed univariately; however, a multivariate approach would be more appropriate because these variables are correlated with each other. We carry out a detailed analysis of these data by using the proposed methodology. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A comparison of time dependent Cox regression, pooled logistic regression and cross sectional pooling with simulations and an application to the Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Ngwa, Julius S; Cabral, Howard J; Cheng, Debbie M; Pencina, Michael J; Gagnon, David R; LaValley, Michael P; Cupples, L Adrienne

2016-11-03

Typical survival studies follow individuals to an event and measure explanatory variables for that event, sometimes repeatedly over the course of follow up. The Cox regression model has been used widely in the analyses of time to diagnosis or death from disease. The associations between the survival outcome and time dependent measures may be biased unless they are modeled appropriately. In this paper we explore the Time Dependent Cox Regression Model (TDCM), which quantifies the effect of repeated measures of covariates in the analysis of time to event data. This model is commonly used in biomedical research but sometimes does not explicitly adjust for the times at which time dependent explanatory variables are measured. This approach can yield different estimates of association compared to a model that adjusts for these times. In order to address the question of how different these estimates are from a statistical perspective, we compare the TDCM to Pooled Logistic Regression (PLR) and Cross Sectional Pooling (CSP), considering models that adjust and do not adjust for time in PLR and CSP. In a series of simulations we found that time adjusted CSP provided identical results to the TDCM while the PLR showed larger parameter estimates compared to the time adjusted CSP and the TDCM in scenarios with high event rates. We also observed upwardly biased estimates in the unadjusted CSP and unadjusted PLR methods. The time adjusted PLR had a positive bias in the time dependent Age effect with reduced bias when the event rate is low. The PLR methods showed a negative bias in the Sex effect, a subject level covariate, when compared to the other methods. The Cox models yielded reliable estimates for the Sex effect in all scenarios considered. We conclude that survival analyses that explicitly account in the statistical model for the times at which time dependent covariates are measured provide more reliable estimates compared to unadjusted analyses. We present results from the Framingham Heart Study in which lipid measurements and myocardial infarction data events were collected over a period of 26 years.

Evaluation of Cox's model and logistic regression for matched case-control data with time-dependent covariates: a simulation study.

PubMed

Leffondré, Karen; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Siemiatycki, Jack

2003-12-30

Case-control studies are typically analysed using the conventional logistic model, which does not directly account for changes in the covariate values over time. Yet, many exposures may vary over time. The most natural alternative to handle such exposures would be to use the Cox model with time-dependent covariates. However, its application to case-control data opens the question of how to manipulate the risk sets. Through a simulation study, we investigate how the accuracy of the estimates of Cox's model depends on the operational definition of risk sets and/or on some aspects of the time-varying exposure. We also assess the estimates obtained from conventional logistic regression. The lifetime experience of a hypothetical population is first generated, and a matched case-control study is then simulated from this population. We control the frequency, the age at initiation, and the total duration of exposure, as well as the strengths of their effects. All models considered include a fixed-in-time covariate and one or two time-dependent covariate(s): the indicator of current exposure and/or the exposure duration. Simulation results show that none of the models always performs well. The discrepancies between the odds ratios yielded by logistic regression and the 'true' hazard ratio depend on both the type of the covariate and the strength of its effect. In addition, it seems that logistic regression has difficulty separating the effects of inter-correlated time-dependent covariates. By contrast, each of the two versions of Cox's model systematically induces either a serious under-estimation or a moderate over-estimation bias. The magnitude of the latter bias is proportional to the true effect, suggesting that an improved manipulation of the risk sets may eliminate, or at least reduce, the bias. Copyright 2003 JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd.

COX-2 verexpression in pretreatment biopsies predicts response of rectal cancers to neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Fraser M.; Reynolds, John V.; Kay, Elaine W.

2006-02-01

Purpose: To determine the utility of COX-2 expression as a response predictor for patients with rectal cancer who are undergoing neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy (RCT). Methods and Materials: Pretreatment biopsies (PTB) from 49 patients who underwent RCT were included. COX-2 and proliferation in PTB were assessed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) and apoptosis was detected by TUNEL stain. Response to treatment was assessed by a 5-point tumor-regression grade (TRG) based on the ratio of residual tumor to fibrosis. Results: Good response (TRG 1 + 2), moderate response (TRG 3), and poor response (TRG 4 + 5) were seen in 21 patients (42%), 11 patientsmore » (22%), and 17 patients (34%), respectively. Patients with COX-2 overexpression in PTB were more likely to demonstrate moderate or poor response (TRG 3 + 4) to treatment than were those with normal COX-2 expression (p = 0.026, chi-square test). Similarly, poor response was more likely if patients had low levels of spontaneous apoptosis in PTBs (p = 0.0007, chi-square test). Conclusions: COX-2 overexpression and reduced apoptosis in PTB can predict poor response of rectal cancer to RCT. As COX-2 inhibitors are commercially available, their administration to patients who overexpress COX-2 warrants assessment in clinical trials in an attempt to increase overall response rates.« less

Optimal Utilization of Donor Grafts With Extended Criteria

PubMed Central

Cameron, Andrew M.; Ghobrial, R Mark; Yersiz, Hasan; Farmer, Douglas G.; Lipshutz, Gerald S.; Gordon, Sherilyn A.; Zimmerman, Michael; Hong, Johnny; Collins, Thomas E.; Gornbein, Jeffery; Amersi, Farin; Weaver, Michael; Cao, Carlos; Chen, Tony; Hiatt, Jonathan R.; Busuttil, Ronald W.

2006-01-01

Objective: Severely limited organ resources mandate maximum utilization of donor allografts for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). This work aimed to identify factors that impact survival outcomes for extended criteria donors (ECD) and developed an ECD scoring system to facilitate graft-recipient matching and optimize utilization of ECDs. Methods: Retrospective analysis of over 1000 primary adult OLTs at UCLA. Extended criteria (EC) considered included donor age (>55 years), donor hospital stay (>5 days), cold ischemia time (>10 hours), and warm ischemia time (>40 minutes). One point was assigned for each extended criterion. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used for multivariate analysis. Results: Of 1153 allografts considered in the study, 568 organs exhibited no extended criteria (0 score), while 429, 135 and 21 donor allografts exhibited an EC score of 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Overall 1-year patient survival rates were 88%, 82%, 77% and 48% for recipients with EC scores of 0, 1, 2 and 3 respectively (P < 0.001). Adjusting for recipient age and urgency at the time of transplantation, multivariate analysis identified an ascending mortality risk ratio of 1.4 and 1.8 compared to a score of 0 for an EC score of 1, and 2 (P < 0.01) respectively. In contrast, an EC score of 3 was associated with a mortality risk ratio of 4.5 (P < 0.001). Further, advanced recipient age linearly increased the death hazard ratio, while an urgent recipient status increased the risk ratio of death by 50%. Conclusions: Extended criteria donors can be scored using readily available parameters. Optimizing perioperative variables and matching ECD allografts to appropriately selected recipients are crucial to maintain acceptable outcomes and represent a preferable alternative to both high waiting list mortality and to a potentially futile transplant that utilizes an ECD for a critically ill recipient. PMID:16772778

[Factors associated with duration of breastfeeding for children of low-income families from southern Curitiba, Paraná State, Brazil].

PubMed

Baptista, Gerson Henrique; Andrade, Adriano Herbert H K Gonçalves de; Giolo, Suely Ruiz

2009-03-01

Various studies have focused on breastfeeding and the possible factors associated with early weaning. This study aimed to identify risk factors and protective factors for duration of breastfeeding in low-income families in southern Curitiba, Paraná State, Brazil. A cohort study from November 2006 to March 2007 included 118 mothers of children less than two years of age and enrolled in the TC Health Unit (USTC) located in the southern area of Curitiba. Statistical analyses using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression model identified the following protective factors for breastfeeding: mother's awareness of the benefits of extended breastfeeding, exclusive feeding with mother's breast milk while in the maternity ward, and rooming-in. Factors contributing to early weaning were low birth weight, mother's work outside the home, and difficulties experienced by the mother in breastfeeding during the first days postpartum.

The Impact of Physical Work Demands on Need for Recovery, Employment Status, Retirement Intentions, and Ability to Extend Working Careers: A Longitudinal Study Among Older Workers.

PubMed

Gommans, Fleur G; Jansen, Nicole W H; Mackey, Martin G; Stynen, Dave; de Grip, Andries; Kant, I Jmert

2016-04-01

Prospectively investigating whether different approaches of physical work demands are associated with need for recovery (NFR), employment status, retirement intentions, and ability to prolong working life among older employees from the industry and health care sector. A subsample from the Maastricht Cohort Study was studied (n = 1126). Poisson, Cox, and logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate outcomes. Perceiving physical work demands as strenuous was associated with higher NFR. Continuous physical strain was associated with being out of employment 4 years later. Employees with the highest amount of physical work demands perceived they were less able to prolong working life, although no significant associations between physical work demands and retirement intentions were found. Overall, physical work demands were associated with adverse outcomes, with divergent insights for the different approaches of physical work demands.

Genetic Polymorphisms in RNA Binding Proteins Contribute to Breast Cancer Survival

PubMed Central

Upadhyay, Rohit; Sanduja, Sandhya; Kaza, Vimala; Dixon, Dan A.

2012-01-01

The RNA-binding proteins TTP and HuR control expression of numerous genes associated with breast cancer pathogenesis by regulating mRNA stability. However, the role of genetic variation in TTP (ZFP36) and HuR (ELAVL1) genes is unknown in breast cancer prognosis. A total of 251 breast cancer patients (170 Caucasians and 81 African-Americans) were enrolled and followed-up from 2001 to 2011 (or until death). Genotyping was performed for 10 SNPs in ZFP36 and 7 in ELAVL1 genes. On comparing both races with one another, significant differences were found for clinical and genetic variables. The influence of genetic polymorphisms on survival was analyzed by using Cox-regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and the log-rank test. Univariate (Kaplan-Meier/Cox-regression) and multivariate (Cox-regression) analysis showed that the TTP gene polymorphism ZFP36*2 A>G was significantly associated with poor prognosis of Caucasian patients (HR = 2.03; 95% CI = 1.09–3.76; P = 0.025; log-rank P = 0.022). None of the haplotypes, but presence of more than six risk genotypes in Caucasian patients, was significantly associated with poor prognosis (HR=2.42; 95% CI=1.17–4.99; P = 0.017; log-rank P = 0.007). The effect of ZFP36*2 A>G on gene expression was evaluated from patients' tissue samples. Both TTP mRNA and protein expression was significantly decreased in ZFP36*2 G allele carriers compared to A allele homozygotes. Conversely, upregulation of the TTP-target gene COX-2 was observed ZFP36*2 G allele carriers. Through its ability to attenuate TTP gene expression, the ZFP36*2 A>G gene polymorphism has appeared as a novel prognostic breast cancer marker in Caucasian patients. PMID:22907529

Evaluation of long-term survival: use of diagnostics and robust estimators with Cox's proportional hazards model.

PubMed

Valsecchi, M G; Silvestri, D; Sasieni, P

1996-12-30

We consider methodological problems in evaluating long-term survival in clinical trials. In particular we examine the use of several methods that extend the basic Cox regression analysis. In the presence of a long term observation, the proportional hazard (PH) assumption may easily be violated and a few long term survivors may have a large effect on parameter estimates. We consider both model selection and robust estimation in a data set of 474 ovarian cancer patients enrolled in a clinical trial and followed for between 7 and 12 years after randomization. Two diagnostic plots for assessing goodness-of-fit are introduced. One shows the variation in time of parameter estimates and is an alternative to PH checking based on time-dependent covariates. The other takes advantage of the martingale residual process in time to represent the lack of fit with a metric of the type 'observed minus expected' number of events. Robust estimation is carried out by maximizing a weighted partial likelihood which downweights the contribution to estimation of influential observations. This type of complementary analysis of long-term results of clinical studies is useful in assessing the soundness of the conclusions on treatment effect. In the example analysed here, the difference in survival between treatments was mostly confined to those individuals who survived at least two years beyond randomization.

Evaluating cardiovascular mortality in type 2 diabetes patients: an analysis based on competing risks Markov chains and additive regression models.

PubMed

Rosato, Rosalba; Ciccone, G; Bo, S; Pagano, G F; Merletti, F; Gregori, D

2007-06-01

Type 2 diabetes represents a condition significantly associated with increased cardiovascular mortality. The aims of the study are: (i) to estimate the cumulative incidence function for cause-specific mortality using Cox and Aalen model; (ii) to describe how the prediction of cardiovascular or other causes mortality changes for patients with different pattern of covariates; (iii) to show if different statistical methods may give different results. Cox and Aalen additive regression model through the Markov chain approach, are used to estimate the cause-specific hazard for cardiovascular or other causes mortality in a cohort of 2865 type 2 diabetic patients without insulin treatment. The models are compared in the estimation of the risk of death for patients of different severity. For younger patients with a better covariates profile, the Cumulative Incidence Function estimated by Cox and Aalen model was almost the same; for patients with the worst covariates profile, models gave different results: at the end of follow-up cardiovascular mortality rate estimated by Cox and Aalen model was 0.26 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.21-0.31] and 0.14 (95% CI = 0.09-0.18). Standard Cox and Aalen model capture the risk process for patients equally well with average profiles of co-morbidities. The Aalen model, in addition, is shown to be better at identifying cause-specific risk of death for patients with more severe clinical profiles. This result is relevant in the development of analytic tools for research and resource management within diabetes care.

Celecoxib extends C. elegans lifespan via inhibition of insulin-like signaling but not cyclooxygenase-2 activity

PubMed Central

Ching, Tsui-Ting; Chiang, Wei-Chung; Chen, Ching-Shih; Hsu, Ao-Lin

2011-01-01

Summary One goal of aging research is to develop interventions that combat age-related illnesses and slow aging. Although numerous mutations have been shown to achieve this in various model organisms, only a handful of chemicals have been identified to slow aging. Here we report that celecoxib, a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) widely used to treat pain and inflammation, extends C. elegans lifespan and delays the age-associated physiological changes, such as motor activity declines. Celecoxib also delays the progression of age-related proteotoxicity as well as tumor growth in C. elegans. Celecoxib was originally developed as a potent COX-2 inhibitor. However, the result from a structural-activity analysis demonstrated that the anti-aging effect of celecoxib might be independent of its COX-2 inhibitory activity, as analogs of celecoxib that lack cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitory activity produces a similar effect on lifespan. Furthermore, we found that celecoxib acts directly on 3’-phosphoinositide-dependent kinase-1 (PDK-1), a component of the insulin/IGF-1 signaling (IIS) cascade to increase lifespan. PMID:21348927

Comparative analysis of COX-2, vascular endothelial growth factor and microvessel density in human renal cell carcinomas.

PubMed

Hemmerlein, B; Galuschka, L; Putzer, N; Zischkau, S; Heuser, M

2004-12-01

Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) are frequently up-regulated in malignant tumours and play a role in proliferation, apoptosis, angiogenesis and tumour invasion. In the present study, the expression of COX-2 and VEGF in renal cell carcinoma (RCC) was analysed and correlated with the microvessel density (MVD). COX-2 and VEGF were analysed by realtime reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction and immunohistochemistry. The MVD was assessed by CD31 immunohistochemistry. The expression of COX-2 and VEGF was determined in the RCC cell lines A498 and Caki-1 under short-term hypoxia and in multicellular tumour cell aggregates. COX-2 was expressed in RCC by tumour epithelia, endothelia and macrophages in areas of cystic tumour regression and tumour necrosis. COX-2 protein in RCC was not altered in comparison with normal renal tissue. VEGF mRNA was up-regulated in RCC and positively correlated with MVD. RCC with high up-regulation of VEGF mRNA showed weak intracytoplasmic expression of VEGF in tumour cells. Intracytoplasmic VEGF protein expression was negatively correlated with MVD. In RCC with necrosis the MVD was reduced in comparison with RCC without necrosis. A498 RCC cells down-regulated COX-2 and up-regulated VEGF under conditions of hypoxia. In Caki-1 cells COX-2 expression remained stable, whereas VEGF was significantly up-regulated. In multicellular A498 cell aggregates COX-2 and VEGF were up-regulated centrally, whereas no gradient was found in Caki-1 cells. COX-2 and VEGF are potential therapeutic targets because COX-2 and VEGF are expressed in RCC and associated cell populations such as endothelia and monocytes/macrophages.

Big Data Toolsets to Pharmacometrics: Application of Machine Learning for Time-to-Event Analysis.

PubMed

Gong, Xiajing; Hu, Meng; Zhao, Liang

2018-05-01

Additional value can be potentially created by applying big data tools to address pharmacometric problems. The performances of machine learning (ML) methods and the Cox regression model were evaluated based on simulated time-to-event data synthesized under various preset scenarios, i.e., with linear vs. nonlinear and dependent vs. independent predictors in the proportional hazard function, or with high-dimensional data featured by a large number of predictor variables. Our results showed that ML-based methods outperformed the Cox model in prediction performance as assessed by concordance index and in identifying the preset influential variables for high-dimensional data. The prediction performances of ML-based methods are also less sensitive to data size and censoring rates than the Cox regression model. In conclusion, ML-based methods provide a powerful tool for time-to-event analysis, with a built-in capacity for high-dimensional data and better performance when the predictor variables assume nonlinear relationships in the hazard function. © 2018 The Authors. Clinical and Translational Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Handling nonnormality and variance heterogeneity for quantitative sublethal toxicity tests.

PubMed

Ritz, Christian; Van der Vliet, Leana

2009-09-01

The advantages of using regression-based techniques to derive endpoints from environmental toxicity data are clear, and slowly, this superior analytical technique is gaining acceptance. As use of regression-based analysis becomes more widespread, some of the associated nuances and potential problems come into sharper focus. Looking at data sets that cover a broad spectrum of standard test species, we noticed that some model fits to data failed to meet two key assumptions-variance homogeneity and normality-that are necessary for correct statistical analysis via regression-based techniques. Failure to meet these assumptions often is caused by reduced variance at the concentrations showing severe adverse effects. Although commonly used with linear regression analysis, transformation of the response variable only is not appropriate when fitting data using nonlinear regression techniques. Through analysis of sample data sets, including Lemna minor, Eisenia andrei (terrestrial earthworm), and algae, we show that both the so-called Box-Cox transformation and use of the Poisson distribution can help to correct variance heterogeneity and nonnormality and so allow nonlinear regression analysis to be implemented. Both the Box-Cox transformation and the Poisson distribution can be readily implemented into existing protocols for statistical analysis. By correcting for nonnormality and variance heterogeneity, these two statistical tools can be used to encourage the transition to regression-based analysis and the depreciation of less-desirable and less-flexible analytical techniques, such as linear interpolation.

Psychosocial work environment and mental health-related long-term sickness absence among nurses.

PubMed

Roelen, Corné A M; van Hoffen, Marieke F A; Waage, Siri; Schaufeli, Wilmar B; Twisk, Jos W R; Bjorvatn, Bjørn; Moen, Bente E; Pallesen, Ståle

2018-02-01

We investigated which job demands and job resources were predictive of mental health-related long-term sickness absence (LTSA) in nurses. The data of 2059 nurses were obtained from the Norwegian survey of Shift work, Sleep and Health. Job demands (psychological demands, role conflict, and harassment at the workplace) and job resources (social support at work, role clarity, and fair leadership) were measured at baseline and linked to mental health-related LTSA during 2-year follow-up. Cox regression models estimated hazard ratios (HR) and related 95% confidence intervals (CI). The c-statistic was used to investigate the discriminative ability of the Cox regression models. A total of 1533 (75%) nurses were included in the analyses; 103 (7%) of them had mental health-related LTSA during 2-year follow-up. Harassment (HR = 1.07; 95% CI 1.01-1.17) and social support (HR = 0.92; 95% CI 0.87-0.98) were associated with mental health-related LTSA. However, the Cox regression model did not discriminate between nurses with and without mental health-related LTSA (c = 0.59; 95% CI 0.53-0.65). Harassment was positively and social support at the workplace was negatively related to mental health-related LTSA, but both failed to discriminate between nurses with and without mental health-related LTSA during 2-year follow-up.

The effect of delayed graft function on graft and patient survival in kidney transplantation: an approach using competing events analysis.

PubMed

Fonseca, Isabel; Teixeira, Laetitia; Malheiro, Jorge; Martins, La Salete; Dias, Leonídio; Castro Henriques, António; Mendonça, Denisa

2015-06-01

In kidney transplantation, the impact of delayed graft function (DGF) on long-term graft and patient survival is controversial. We examined the impact of DGF on graft and recipient survival by accounting for the possibility that death with graft function may act as a competing risk for allograft failure. We used data from 1281 adult primary deceased-donor kidney recipients whose allografts functioned at least 1 year. The probability of graft loss occurrence is overestimated using the complement of Kaplan-Meier estimates (1-KM). Both the cause-specific Cox proportional hazard regression model (standard Cox) and the subdistribution hazard regression model proposed by Fine and Gray showed that DGF was associated with shorter time to graft failure (csHR = 2.0, P = 0.002; sHR = 1.57, P = 0.009), independent of acute rejection (AR) and after adjusting for traditional factors associated with graft failure. Regarding patient survival, DGF was a predictor of patient death using the cause-specific Cox model (csHR = 1.57, P = 0.029) but not using the subdistribution model. The probability of graft loss from competing end points should not be reported with the 1-KM. Application of a regression model for subdistribution hazard showed that, independent of AR, DGF has a detrimental effect on long-term graft survival, but not on patient survival. © 2015 Steunstichting ESOT.

Overexpression of epithelial cell adhesion molecule protein is associated with favorable prognosis in an unselected cohort of ovarian cancer patients.

PubMed

Battista, Marco Johannes; Cotarelo, Cristina; Jakobi, Sina; Steetskamp, Joscha; Makris, Georgios; Sicking, Isabel; Weyer, Veronika; Schmidt, Marcus

2014-07-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic influence of epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM) in an unselected cohort of ovarian cancer (OC) patients. Expression of EpCAM was determined by immunohistochemistry in an unselected cohort of 117 patients with OC. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses adjusted for age, tumor stage, histological grading, histological subtype, postoperative tumor burden and completeness of chemotherapy were performed in order to determine the prognostic influence of EpCAM. The Kaplan-Meier method is used to estimate survival rates. Univariable Cox regression analysis showed that overexpression of EpCAM is associated with favorable prognosis in terms of progression-free survival (PFS) (p = 0.011) and disease-specific survival (DSS) (p = 0.003). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, overexpression of EpCAM retains its significance independent of established prognostic factors for longer PFS [hazard ratios (HR) 0.408, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.197-0.846, p = 0.003] but not for PFS (HR 0.666, 95 % CI 0.366-1.212, p = 0.183). Kaplan-Meier plots demonstrate an influence on 5-year PFS rates (0 vs. 27.6 %, p = 0.048) and DSS rates (11.8 vs. 54.0 %, p = 0.018). These findings support the hypothesis that the expression of EpCAM is associated with favorable prognosis in OC.

Comparison of Weibull and Lognormal Cure Models with Cox in the Survival Analysis Of Breast Cancer Patients in Rafsanjan.

PubMed

Hoseini, Mina; Bahrampour, Abbas; Mirzaee, Moghaddameh

2017-02-16

Breast cancer is the most common cancer after lung cancer and the second cause of death. In this study we compared Weibull and Lognormal Cure Models with Cox regression on the survival of breast cancer. A cohort study. The current study retrospective cohort study was conducted on 140 patients referred to Ali Ibn Abitaleb Hospital, Rafsanjan southeastern Iran from 2001 to 2015 suffering from breast cancer. We determined and analyzed the effective survival causes by different models using STATA14. According to AIC, log-normal model was more consistent than Weibull. In the multivariable Lognormal model, the effective factors like smoking, second -hand smoking, drinking herbal tea and the last breast-feeding period were included. In addition, using Cox regression factors of significant were the disease grade, size of tumor and its metastasis (p-value<0.05). As Rafsanjan is surrounded by pistachio orchards and pesticides applied by farmers, people of this city are exposed to agricultural pesticides and its harmful consequences. The effect of the pesticide on breast cancer was studied and the results showed that the effect of pesticides on breast cancer was not in agreement with the models used in this study. Based on different methods for survival analysis, researchers can decide how they can reach a better conclusion. This comparison indicates the result of semi-parametric Cox method is closer to clinical experiences evidences.

Cyclooxygenase-2 mediates the febrile response of mice to interleukin-1beta.

PubMed

Li, S; Ballou, L R; Morham, S G; Blatteis, C M

2001-08-10

Various lines of evidence have implicated cyclooxygenase (COX)-2 as a modulator of the fever induced by the exogenous pyrogen lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Thus, treatment with specific inhibitors of COX-2 suppresses the febrile response without affecting basal body (core) temperature (T(c)). Furthermore, COX-2 gene-ablated mice are unable to develop a febrile response to intraperitoneal (i.p.) LPS, whereas their COX-1-deficient counterparts produce fevers not different from their wild-type (WT) controls. To extend the apparently critical role of COX-2 for LPS-induced fevers to fevers produced by endogenous pyrogens, we studied the thermal responses of COX-1- and COX-2 congenitally deficient mice to i.p. and intracerebroventricular (i.c.v.) injections of recombinant murine (rm) interleukin (IL)-1beta. We also assessed the effects of one selective COX-1 inhibitor, SC-560, and two selective COX-2 inhibitors, nimesulide (NIM) and dimethylfuranone (DFU), on the febrile responses of WT and COX-1(-/-) mice to LPS and rmIL-1beta, i.p. Finally, we verified the integrity of the animals' responses to PGE2, i.c.v. I.p. and i.c.v. rmIL-1beta induced similar fevers in WT and COX-1 knockout mice, but provoked no rise in the T(c)s of COX-2 null mutants. The fever produced in WT mice by i.p. LPS was not affected by SC-560, but it was attenuated and abolished by NIM and DFU, respectively, while that caused by i.p. rmIL-1beta was converted into a T(c) fall by DFU. There were no differences in the responses to i.c.v. PGE2 among the WT and COX knockout mice. These results, therefore, further support the notion that the production of PGE2 in response to pyrogens is critically dependent on COX-2 expression.

Actinic cheilitis: epithelial expression of COX-2 and its association with mast cell tryptase and PAR-2.

PubMed

Rojas, I Gina; Martínez, Alejandra; Brethauer, Ursula; Grez, Patricia; Yefi, Roger; Luza, Sandra; Marchesani, Francisco J

2009-03-01

Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) is overexpressed in various types of human malignancies, including oral cancers. Recent studies have shown that mast cell-derived protease tryptase can induce COX-2 expression by the cleavage of proteinase-activated receptor-2 (PAR-2). Actinic cheilitis (AC) is a premalignant form of lip cancer characterized by an increased density of tryptase-positive mast cells. To investigate the possible contribution of tryptase to COX-2 overexpression during early lip carcinogenesis, normal lip (n=24) and AC (n=45) biopsies were processed for COX-2, PAR-2 and tryptase detection, using RT-PCR and immunohistochemistry. Expression scores were obtained for each marker and tested for statistical significance using Mann-Whitney and Spearmann's correlation tests as well as multivariate logistic regression analysis. Increased epithelial co-expression of COX-2 and PAR-2, as well as, elevated subepithelial density of tryptase-positive mast cells were found in AC as compared to normal lip (P<0.001). COX-2 overexpression was found to be a significant predictor of AC (P<0.034, forward stepwise, Wald), and to be correlated with both tryptase-positive mast cells and PAR-2 expression (P<0.01). The results suggest that epithelial COX-2 overexpression is a key event in AC, which is associated with increased tryptase-positive mast cells and PAR-2. Therefore, tryptase may contribute to COX-2 up-regulation by epithelial PAR-2 activation during early lip carcinogenesis.

QSAR analyses of conformationally restricted 1,5-diaryl pyrazoles as selective COX-2 inhibitors: application of connection table representation of ligands.

PubMed

Prasanna, S; Manivannan, E; Chaturvedi, S C

2005-04-15

As a part of our continuing efforts in discerning the structural and physicochemical requirements for selective COX-2 over COX-1 inhibition among the fused pyrazole ring systems, herein we report the QSAR analyses of the title compounds. The conformational flexibility of the title compounds was examined using a simple connection table representation. The conformational investigation was aided by calculating a connection table parameter called fraction of rotable bonds, b_rotR encompassing the number of rotable bonds and b_count, the number of bonds including implicit hydrogens of each ligand. The hydrophobic and steric correlation of the title compounds towards selective COX-2 inhibition was reported previously in one of our recent publications. In this communication, we attempt to calculate Wang-Ford charges of the non-hydrogen common atoms of AM1 optimized geometries of the title compounds. Owing to the partial conformational flexibility of title compounds, conformationally restricted and unrestricted descriptors were calculated from MOE. Correlation analysis of these 2D, 3D and Wang-Ford charges was accomplished by linear regression analysis. 2D molecular descriptor b_single, 3D molecular descriptors glob, std_dim3 showed significant contribution towards COX-2 inhibitory activity. Balaban J, a connectivity topological index showed a negative and positive contribution towards COX-1 and selective COX-2 over COX-1 inhibition, respectively. Wang-Ford charges calculated on C(7) showed a significant contribution towards COX-1 inhibitory activity whereas charges calculated on C(8) were crucial in governing the selectivity of COX-2 over COX-1 inhibition among these congeners.

Simulation program for estimating statistical power of Cox's proportional hazards model assuming no specific distribution for the survival time.

PubMed

Akazawa, K; Nakamura, T; Moriguchi, S; Shimada, M; Nose, Y

1991-07-01

Small sample properties of the maximum partial likelihood estimates for Cox's proportional hazards model depend on the sample size, the true values of regression coefficients, covariate structure, censoring pattern and possibly baseline hazard functions. Therefore, it would be difficult to construct a formula or table to calculate the exact power of a statistical test for the treatment effect in any specific clinical trial. The simulation program, written in SAS/IML, described in this paper uses Monte-Carlo methods to provide estimates of the exact power for Cox's proportional hazards model. For illustrative purposes, the program was applied to real data obtained from a clinical trial performed in Japan. Since the program does not assume any specific function for the baseline hazard, it is, in principle, applicable to any censored survival data as long as they follow Cox's proportional hazards model.

A Review of the Study Designs and Statistical Methods Used in the Determination of Predictors of All-Cause Mortality in HIV-Infected Cohorts: 2002–2011

PubMed Central

Otwombe, Kennedy N.; Petzold, Max; Martinson, Neil; Chirwa, Tobias

2014-01-01

Background Research in the predictors of all-cause mortality in HIV-infected people has widely been reported in literature. Making an informed decision requires understanding the methods used. Objectives We present a review on study designs, statistical methods and their appropriateness in original articles reporting on predictors of all-cause mortality in HIV-infected people between January 2002 and December 2011. Statistical methods were compared between 2002–2006 and 2007–2011. Time-to-event analysis techniques were considered appropriate. Data Sources Pubmed/Medline. Study Eligibility Criteria Original English-language articles were abstracted. Letters to the editor, editorials, reviews, systematic reviews, meta-analysis, case reports and any other ineligible articles were excluded. Results A total of 189 studies were identified (n = 91 in 2002–2006 and n = 98 in 2007–2011) out of which 130 (69%) were prospective and 56 (30%) were retrospective. One hundred and eighty-two (96%) studies described their sample using descriptive statistics while 32 (17%) made comparisons using t-tests. Kaplan-Meier methods for time-to-event analysis were commonly used in the earlier period (n = 69, 76% vs. n = 53, 54%, p = 0.002). Predictors of mortality in the two periods were commonly determined using Cox regression analysis (n = 67, 75% vs. n = 63, 64%, p = 0.12). Only 7 (4%) used advanced survival analysis methods of Cox regression analysis with frailty in which 6 (3%) were used in the later period. Thirty-two (17%) used logistic regression while 8 (4%) used other methods. There were significantly more articles from the first period using appropriate methods compared to the second (n = 80, 88% vs. n = 69, 70%, p-value = 0.003). Conclusion Descriptive statistics and survival analysis techniques remain the most common methods of analysis in publications on predictors of all-cause mortality in HIV-infected cohorts while prospective research designs are favoured. Sophisticated techniques of time-dependent Cox regression and Cox regression with frailty are scarce. This motivates for more training in the use of advanced time-to-event methods. PMID:24498313

The incidence and effect of noncylindrical neck morphology on outcomes after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair in the Global Registry for Endovascular Aortic Treatment.

PubMed

Shutze, William; Suominem, Velipekka; Jordan, William; Cao, Piergiorgio; Oweida, Steven; Milner, Ross

2018-05-23

The Gore Global Registry for Endovascular Aortic Treatment (GREAT) was designed to evaluate real-world outcomes after treatment with Gore aortic endografts used in a real-world, global setting. We retrospectively analyzed the GREAT data to evaluate the incidence and effects of noncylindrical neck anatomy in patients undergoing endovascular aortic aneurysm repair. The present analysis included patients with data in the GREAT who had been treated with the EXCLUDER endograft from August 2010 to October 2016. A noncylindrical neck was defined when the proximal aortic landing zone diameter had changed ≥2 mm over the first 15 mm of the proximal landing zone, indicating a tapered, conical, or hourglass morphology. Cox multivariate regression analyses were performed for any reintervention (including reinterventions on aortic branch vessels), device-related reinterventions, and reintervention specifically for endoleak. Independent binary (cylindrical vs noncylindrical necks) and continuous (percentage of neck diameter change) variables were assessed. The abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) diameter, proximal neck length, maximal infrarenal neck angle, gender, and use of aortic extender cuffs were also assessed. Of 3077 GREAT patients with available proximal aortic landing zone diameter measurements available, 1765 were found to have cylindrical necks and 1312 had noncylindrical necks. The noncylindrical neck cohort had a significantly greater proportion of women (17.4% vs 12.6%; P < .001) and more severe infrarenal angulation (33.8° vs 28.4°; P < .001). A total 14.7% of noncylindrical neck patients and 11.2% cylindrical neck patients underwent implantation outside of the EXCLUDER instructions for use regarding the anatomic inclusion criteria (P = .004). The procedural characteristics were similar between the two cohorts; however, noncylindrical neck patients required significantly more aortic extender cuffs (P = .004). The average follow-up was 21.2 ± 17.5 months and 17.8 ± 15.8 months for the cylindrical and noncylindrical cohorts, respectively (P < .001). The Cox multivariate regression models demonstrated female gender and maximum AAA diameter were significant risk factors for subsequent reintervention (overall, device-related, and endoleak-specific). Women were 2.2 times as likely to require device-related intervention during the follow-up period compared with men (P < .001). Neck shape morphology was not a significant predictor, except for device-related intervention, for which cylindrical necks (binary definition) resulted in a slightly elevated risk (1.5 times; P = .03). Noncylindrical neck morphology was more common in women and was associated with an increased use of aortic extender cuffs but did not increase the risk of intervention. Female gender and AAA diameter were associated with an increased need for reintervention. Copyright © 2018 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Molecular analysis of the split cox1 gene from the Basidiomycota Agrocybe aegerita: relationship of its introns with homologous Ascomycota introns and divergence levels from common ancestral copies.

PubMed

Gonzalez, P; Barroso, G; Labarère, J

1998-10-05

The Basidiomycota Agrocybe aegerita (Aa) mitochondrial cox1 gene (6790 nucleotides), encoding a protein of 527aa (58377Da), is split by four large subgroup IB introns possessing site-specific endonucleases assumed to be involved in intron mobility. When compared to other fungal COX1 proteins, the Aa protein is closely related to the COX1 one of the Basidiomycota Schizophyllum commune (Sc). This clade reveals a relationship with the studied Ascomycota ones, with the exception of Schizosaccharomyces pombe (Sp) which ranges in an out-group position compared with both higher fungi divisions. When comparison is extended to other kingdoms, fungal COX1 sequences are found to be more related to algae and plant ones (more than 57.5% aa similarity) than to animal sequences (53.6% aa similarity), contrasting with the previously established close relationship between fungi and animals, based on comparisons of nuclear genes. The four Aa cox1 introns are homologous to Ascomycota or algae cox1 introns sharing the same location within the exonic sequences. The percentages of identity of the intronic nucleotide sequences suggest a possible acquisition by lateral transfers of ancestral copies or of their derived sequences. These identities extend over the whole intronic sequences, arguing in favor of a transfer of the complete intron rather than a transfer limited to the encoded ORF. The intron i4 shares 74% of identity, at the nucleotidic level, with the Podospora anserina (Pa) intron i14, and up to 90.5% of aa similarity between the encoded proteins, i.e. the highest values reported to date between introns of two phylogenetically distant species. This low divergence argues for a recent lateral transfer between the two species. On the contrary, the low sequence identities (below 36%) observed between Aa i1 and the homologous Sp i1 or Prototheca wickeramii (Pw) i1 suggest a long evolution time after the separation of these sequences. The introns i2 and i3 possessed intermediate percentages of identity with their homologous Ascomycota introns. This is the first report of the complete nucleotide sequence and molecular organization of a mitochondrial cox1 gene of any member of the Basidiomycota division.

Bayesian dynamic regression models for interval censored survival data with application to children dental health.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaojing; Chen, Ming-Hui; Yan, Jun

2013-07-01

Cox models with time-varying coefficients offer great flexibility in capturing the temporal dynamics of covariate effects on event times, which could be hidden from a Cox proportional hazards model. Methodology development for varying coefficient Cox models, however, has been largely limited to right censored data; only limited work on interval censored data has been done. In most existing methods for varying coefficient models, analysts need to specify which covariate coefficients are time-varying and which are not at the time of fitting. We propose a dynamic Cox regression model for interval censored data in a Bayesian framework, where the coefficient curves are piecewise constant but the number of pieces and the jump points are covariate specific and estimated from the data. The model automatically determines the extent to which the temporal dynamics is needed for each covariate, resulting in smoother and more stable curve estimates. The posterior computation is carried out via an efficient reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Inference of each coefficient is based on an average of models with different number of pieces and jump points. A simulation study with three covariates, each with a coefficient of different degree in temporal dynamics, confirmed that the dynamic model is preferred to the existing time-varying model in terms of model comparison criteria through conditional predictive ordinate. When applied to a dental health data of children with age between 7 and 12 years, the dynamic model reveals that the relative risk of emergence of permanent tooth 24 between children with and without an infected primary predecessor is the highest at around age 7.5, and that it gradually reduces to one after age 11. These findings were not seen from the existing studies with Cox proportional hazards models.

Development of a five-year mortality model in systemic sclerosis patients by different analytical approaches.

PubMed

Beretta, Lorenzo; Santaniello, Alessandro; Cappiello, Francesca; Chawla, Nitesh V; Vonk, Madelon C; Carreira, Patricia E; Allanore, Yannick; Popa-Diaconu, D A; Cossu, Marta; Bertolotti, Francesca; Ferraccioli, Gianfranco; Mazzone, Antonino; Scorza, Raffaella

2010-01-01

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a multiorgan disease with high mortality rates. Several clinical features have been associated with poor survival in different populations of SSc patients, but no clear and reproducible prognostic model to assess individual survival prediction in scleroderma patients has ever been developed. We used Cox regression and three data mining-based classifiers (Naïve Bayes Classifier [NBC], Random Forests [RND-F] and logistic regression [Log-Reg]) to develop a robust and reproducible 5-year prognostic model. All the models were built and internally validated by means of 5-fold cross-validation on a population of 558 Italian SSc patients. Their predictive ability and capability of generalisation was then tested on an independent population of 356 patients recruited from 5 external centres and finally compared to the predictions made by two SSc domain experts on the same population. The NBC outperformed the Cox-based classifier and the other data mining algorithms after internal cross-validation (area under receiving operator characteristic curve, AUROC: NBC=0.759; RND-F=0.736; Log-Reg=0.754 and Cox= 0.724). The NBC had also a remarkable and better trade-off between sensitivity and specificity (e.g. Balanced accuracy, BA) than the Cox-based classifier, when tested on an independent population of SSc patients (BA: NBC=0.769, Cox=0.622). The NBC was also superior to domain experts in predicting 5-year survival in this population (AUROC=0.829 vs. AUROC=0.788 and BA=0.769 vs. BA=0.67). We provide a model to make consistent 5-year prognostic predictions in SSc patients. Its internal validity, as well as capability of generalisation and reduced uncertainty compared to human experts support its use at bedside. Available at: http://www.nd.edu/~nchawla/survival.xls.

[Risk factors on the recurrence of ischemic stroke and the establishment of a Cox's regression model].

PubMed

An, Ya-chen; Chen, Yun-xia; Wang, Yu-xun; Zhao, Xiao-jing; Wang, Yan; Zhang, Jiang; Li, Chun-ling; Peng, Yan-bo; Gao, Su-ling; Chang, Li-sha; Zhang, Li; Xue, Xin-hong; Chen, Rui-ying; Wang, Da-li

2011-08-01

To investigate the risk factors and establish the Cox's regression model on the recurrence of ischemic stroke. We retrospectively reviewed consecutive patients with ischemic stroke admitted to the Neurology Department of the Hebei United University Affiliated Hospital between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2009. Cases had been followed since the onset of ischemic stroke. The follow-up program was finished in June 30, 2010. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to describe the recurrence rate. Monovariant and multivariate Cox's proportional hazard regression model were used to analyze the risk factors associated to the episodes of recurrence. And then, a recurrence model was set up. During the period of follow-up program, 79 cases were relapsed, with the recurrence rates as 12.75% in one year and 18.87% in two years. Monovariant and multivariate Cox's proportional hazard regression model showed that the independent risk factors that were associated with the recurrence appeared to be age (X₁) (RR = 1.025, 95%CI: 1.003 - 1.048), history of hypertension (X₂) (RR = 1.976, 95%CI: 1.014 - 3.851), history of family strokes (X₃) (RR = 2.647, 95%CI: 1.175 - 5.961), total cholesterol amount (X₄) (RR = 1.485, 95%CI: 1.214 - 1.817), ESRS total scores (X₅) (RR = 1.327, 95%CI: 1.057 - 1.666) and progression of the disease (X₆) (RR = 1.889, 95%CI: 1.123 - 3.178). Personal prognosis index (PI) of the recurrence model was as follows: PI = 0.025X₁ + 0.681X₂ + 0.973X₃ + 0.395X₄ + 0.283X₅ + 0.636X₆. The smaller the personal prognosis index was, the lower the recurrence risk appeared, while the bigger the personal prognosis index was, the higher the recurrence risk appeared. Age, history of hypertension, total cholesterol amount, total scores of ESRS, together with the disease progression were the independent risk factors associated with the recurrence episodes of ischemic stroke. Both recurrence model and the personal prognosis index equation were successful constructed.

Methodological comparison of marginal structural model, time-varying Cox regression, and propensity score methods: the example of antidepressant use and the risk of hip fracture.

PubMed

Ali, M Sanni; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Belitser, Svetlana V; Souverein, Patrick C; Martín, Elisa; Gatto, Nicolle M; Huerta, Consuelo; Gardarsdottir, Helga; Roes, Kit C B; Hoes, Arno W; de Boer, Antonius; Klungel, Olaf H

2016-03-01

Observational studies including time-varying treatments are prone to confounding. We compared time-varying Cox regression analysis, propensity score (PS) methods, and marginal structural models (MSMs) in a study of antidepressant [selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs)] use and the risk of hip fracture. A cohort of patients with a first prescription for antidepressants (SSRI or tricyclic antidepressants) was extracted from the Dutch Mondriaan and Spanish Base de datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria (BIFAP) general practice databases for the period 2001-2009. The net (total) effect of SSRI versus no SSRI on the risk of hip fracture was estimated using time-varying Cox regression, stratification and covariate adjustment using the PS, and MSM. In MSM, censoring was accounted for by inverse probability of censoring weights. The crude hazard ratio (HR) of SSRI use versus no SSRI use on hip fracture was 1.75 (95%CI: 1.12, 2.72) in Mondriaan and 2.09 (1.89, 2.32) in BIFAP. After confounding adjustment using time-varying Cox regression, stratification, and covariate adjustment using the PS, HRs increased in Mondriaan [2.59 (1.63, 4.12), 2.64 (1.63, 4.25), and 2.82 (1.63, 4.25), respectively] and decreased in BIFAP [1.56 (1.40, 1.73), 1.54 (1.39, 1.71), and 1.61 (1.45, 1.78), respectively]. MSMs with stabilized weights yielded HR 2.15 (1.30, 3.55) in Mondriaan and 1.63 (1.28, 2.07) in BIFAP when accounting for censoring and 2.13 (1.32, 3.45) in Mondriaan and 1.66 (1.30, 2.12) in BIFAP without accounting for censoring. In this empirical study, differences between the different methods to control for time-dependent confounding were small. The observed differences in treatment effect estimates between the databases are likely attributable to different confounding information in the datasets, illustrating that adequate information on (time-varying) confounding is crucial to prevent bias. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[HIV/AIDS related mortality in southern Shanxi province and its risk factors].

PubMed

Ning, Shaoping; Xue, Zidong; Wei, Jun; Mu, Shengcai; Xu, Yajuan; Jia, Shaoxian; Qiu, Chao; Xu, Jianqing

2015-03-01

To explore factors influencing mortality rate of HIV/AIDS and to improve the effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART). By means of retrospective cohort study and the AIDS control information system, HIV/AIDS case reports and antiviral treatment information of 4 cities in southern Shanxi province up to end of December 2012 were selected, to calculate the mortality rate and treatment coverage based on further data collected, along with analysis using the Cox proportional hazards survival regression. 4 040 cases confirmed of HIV/AIDS were included in this study. The average age was (36.0 ± 12.9) years, with 65.3% being male, 56.5% being married, 73.5% having junior high school education or lower, 58.4% being peasants, 54.3% with sexually transmitted infection (40.1% were heterosexual, 14.2% were homosexual), and 38.9% were infected via blood transmission (20.2% were former plasma donors, 16.2% blood transfusion or products recipients, 2.4% were injection drug users). Overall mortality decreased from 40.2 per 100 person/year in 2004 to 6.3 per 100 person/year in 2012, with treatment coverage concomitantly increasing from almost 14.8% to 63.4%. Cox proportional hazards survival regression was used on 4 040 qualified cases, demonstrating the top mortality risk factor was without antiretroviral therapy (RR = 14.9, 95% CI: 12.7-17.4). Cox proportional hazards survival regression was made on 1 938 cases of antiviral treatment, demonstrating that the mortality risk of underweight or obese before treatment was higher than those of normal and overweight cases (RR = 2.7, 95% CI: 1.6-4.5), and the mortality of those having a CD4(+) T-lymphocyte count ≤ 50 cells per µl before treatment was more than 50 cases (RR = 2.6, 95% CI: 1.5-4.5); Cox proportional hazards survival regression was made on 2 102 cases of untreated cases, demonstrating the mortality risk of those initially diagnosed as AIDS was higher than those initially diagnosed as HIV (RR = 3.4, 95% CI: 2.9-4.0). The ART could successfully make lower HIV/AIDS mortality rate, indicating effective ART can further decrease mortality.

Optimizing the time-frame for the definition of bleeding-related death after acute variceal bleeding in cirrhosis.

PubMed

Merkel, C; Gatta, A; Bellumat, A; Bolognesi, M; Borsato, L; Caregaro, L; Cavallarin, G; Cielo, R; Cristina, P; Cucci, E; Donada, C; Donadon, V; Enzo, E; Martin, R; Mazzaro, C; Sacerdoti, D; Torboli, P

1996-01-01

To identify the best time-frame for defining bleeding-related death after variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis. Prospective long-term evaluation of a cohort of 155 patients admitted with variceal bleeding. Eight medical departments in seven hospitals in north-eastern Italy. Non-linear regression analysis of a hazard curve for death, and Cox's multiple regression analyses using different zero-time points. Cumulative hazard plots gave two slopes, the first corresponding to the risk of death from acute bleeding, the second a baseline risk of death. The first 30 days were outside the confidence limits of the regression curve for the baseline risk of death. Using Cox's regression analysis, the significant predictors of overall mortality risk were balanced between factors related to severity of bleeding and those related to severity of liver disease. If only deaths occurring after 30 days were considered, only predictors related to the severity of liver disease were found to be of importance. Thirty days after bleeding is considered to be a reasonable time-frame for the definition of bleeding-related death in patients with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding.

Soman increases neuronal COX-2 levels: possible link between seizures and protracted neuronal damage.

PubMed

Angoa-Pérez, Mariana; Kreipke, Christian W; Thomas, David M; Van Shura, Kerry E; Lyman, Megan; McDonough, John H; Kuhn, Donald M

2010-12-01

Nerve agent-induced seizures cause neuronal damage in brain limbic and cortical circuits leading to persistent behavioral and cognitive deficits. Without aggressive anticholinergic and benzodiazepine therapy, seizures can be prolonged and neuronal damage progresses for extended periods of time. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of the nerve agent soman on expression of cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2), the initial enzyme in the biosynthetic pathway of the proinflammatory prostaglandins and a factor that has been implicated in seizure initiation and propagation. Rats were exposed to a toxic dose of soman and scored behaviorally for seizure intensity. Expression of COX-2 was determined throughout brain from 4h to 7 days after exposure by immunohistochemistry and immunoblotting. Microglial activation and astrogliosis were assessed microscopically over the same time-course. Soman increased COX-2 expression in brain regions known to be damaged by nerve agents (e.g., hippocampus, amygdala, piriform cortex and thalamus). COX-2 expression was induced in neurons, and not in microglia or astrocytes, and remained elevated through 7 days. The magnitude of COX-2 induction was correlated with seizure intensity. COX-1 expression was not changed by soman. Increased expression of neuronal COX-2 by soman is a late-developing response relative to other signs of acute physiological distress caused by nerve agents. COX-2-mediated production of prostaglandins is a consequence of the seizure-induced neuronal damage, even after survival of the initial cholinergic crisis is assured. COX-2 inhibitors should be considered as adjunct therapy in nerve agent poisoning to minimize nerve agent-induced seizure activity. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Bio-psychosocial determinants of time lost from work following non life threatening acute orthopaedic trauma

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background To determine factors predicting the duration of time away from work following acute orthopaedic non life threatening trauma Methods Prospective cohort study conducted at four hospitals in Victoria, Australia. The cohort comprised 168 patients aged 18-64 years who were working prior to the injury and sustained a range of acute unintentional orthopaedic injuries resulting in hospitalization. Baseline data was obtained by survey and medical record review. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to examine the association between potential predictors and the duration of time away from work during the six month study. The study achieved 89% follow-up. Results Of the 168 participants recruited to the study, 68% returned to work during the six month study. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis identified that blue collar work, negative pain attitudes with respect to work, high initial pain intensity, injury severity, older age, initial need for surgery, the presence of co-morbid health conditions at study entry and an orthopaedic injury to more than one region were associated with extended duration away from work following the injury. Participants in receipt of compensation who reported high social functioning at two weeks were 2.58 times more likely to have returned to work than similar participants reporting low social functioning. When only those who had returned to work were considered, the participant reported reason for return to work " to fill the day" was a significant predictor of earlier RTW [RR 2.41 (95% C.I 1.35-4.30)] whereas "financial security" and "because they felt able to" did not achieve significance. Conclusions Many injury-related and psycho social factors affect the duration of time away from work following orthopaedic injury. Some of these are potentially modifiable and may be amenable to intervention. Further consideration of the reasons provided by participants for returning to work may provide important opportunities for social marketing approaches designed to alleviate the financial and social burden associated with work disability. PMID:20051124

Bio-psychosocial determinants of time lost from work following non life threatening acute orthopaedic trauma.

PubMed

Clay, Fiona J; Newstead, Stuart V; Watson, Wendy L; Ozanne-Smith, Joan; McClure, Roderick J

2010-01-05

To determine factors predicting the duration of time away from work following acute orthopaedic non life threatening trauma Prospective cohort study conducted at four hospitals in Victoria, Australia. The cohort comprised 168 patients aged 18-64 years who were working prior to the injury and sustained a range of acute unintentional orthopaedic injuries resulting in hospitalization. Baseline data was obtained by survey and medical record review. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to examine the association between potential predictors and the duration of time away from work during the six month study. The study achieved 89% follow-up. Of the 168 participants recruited to the study, 68% returned to work during the six month study. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis identified that blue collar work, negative pain attitudes with respect to work, high initial pain intensity, injury severity, older age, initial need for surgery, the presence of co-morbid health conditions at study entry and an orthopaedic injury to more than one region were associated with extended duration away from work following the injury. Participants in receipt of compensation who reported high social functioning at two weeks were 2.58 times more likely to have returned to work than similar participants reporting low social functioning. When only those who had returned to work were considered, the participant reported reason for return to work " to fill the day" was a significant predictor of earlier RTW [RR 2.41 (95% C.I 1.35-4.30)] whereas "financial security" and "because they felt able to" did not achieve significance. Many injury-related and psycho social factors affect the duration of time away from work following orthopaedic injury. Some of these are potentially modifiable and may be amenable to intervention. Further consideration of the reasons provided by participants for returning to work may provide important opportunities for social marketing approaches designed to alleviate the financial and social burden associated with work disability.

Using instrumental variables to estimate a Cox's proportional hazards regression subject to additive confounding

PubMed Central

Tosteson, Tor D.; Morden, Nancy E.; Stukel, Therese A.; O'Malley, A. James

2014-01-01

The estimation of treatment effects is one of the primary goals of statistics in medicine. Estimation based on observational studies is subject to confounding. Statistical methods for controlling bias due to confounding include regression adjustment, propensity scores and inverse probability weighted estimators. These methods require that all confounders are recorded in the data. The method of instrumental variables (IVs) can eliminate bias in observational studies even in the absence of information on confounders. We propose a method for integrating IVs within the framework of Cox's proportional hazards model and demonstrate the conditions under which it recovers the causal effect of treatment. The methodology is based on the approximate orthogonality of an instrument with unobserved confounders among those at risk. We derive an estimator as the solution to an estimating equation that resembles the score equation of the partial likelihood in much the same way as the traditional IV estimator resembles the normal equations. To justify this IV estimator for a Cox model we perform simulations to evaluate its operating characteristics. Finally, we apply the estimator to an observational study of the effect of coronary catheterization on survival. PMID:25506259

Using instrumental variables to estimate a Cox's proportional hazards regression subject to additive confounding.

PubMed

MacKenzie, Todd A; Tosteson, Tor D; Morden, Nancy E; Stukel, Therese A; O'Malley, A James

2014-06-01

The estimation of treatment effects is one of the primary goals of statistics in medicine. Estimation based on observational studies is subject to confounding. Statistical methods for controlling bias due to confounding include regression adjustment, propensity scores and inverse probability weighted estimators. These methods require that all confounders are recorded in the data. The method of instrumental variables (IVs) can eliminate bias in observational studies even in the absence of information on confounders. We propose a method for integrating IVs within the framework of Cox's proportional hazards model and demonstrate the conditions under which it recovers the causal effect of treatment. The methodology is based on the approximate orthogonality of an instrument with unobserved confounders among those at risk. We derive an estimator as the solution to an estimating equation that resembles the score equation of the partial likelihood in much the same way as the traditional IV estimator resembles the normal equations. To justify this IV estimator for a Cox model we perform simulations to evaluate its operating characteristics. Finally, we apply the estimator to an observational study of the effect of coronary catheterization on survival.

Tramadol extended-release in the management of chronic pain

PubMed Central

McCarberg, Bill

2007-01-01

Chronic, noncancer pain such as that associated with osteoarthritis of the hip and knee is typically managed according to American College of Rheumatology guidelines. Patients unresponsive to first-line treatment with acetaminophen receive nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), including cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitors. However, many patients may have chronic pain that is refractory to these agents, or they may be at risk for the gastrointestinal, renal, and cardiovascular complications associated with their use. Tramadol, a mild opioid agonist and norepinephrine and serotonin reuptake inhibitor, is recommended by current guidelines for the treatment of moderate to moderately severe pain in patients who have not responded to previous oral therapy, or in patients who have contraindications to COX-2 inhibitors and nonselective NSAIDs. An extended-release (ER) formulation of tramadol was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration in September 2005. In contrast with immediate-release (IR) tramadol, this ER formulation allows once-daily dosing, providing around-the-clock analgesia. In clinical studies, tramadol ER has demonstrated a lower incidence of adverse events than that reported for IR tramadol. Unlike nonselective NSAIDs and COX-2 inhibitors, tramadol ER is not associated with gastrointestinal, renal, or cardiovascular complications. Although tramadol is an opioid agonist, significant abuse has not been demonstrated after long-term therapy. It is concluded that tramadol ER has an efficacy and safety profile that warrants its early use for the management of chronic pain, either alone or in conjunction with nonselective NSAIDs and COX-2 inhibitors. PMID:18488071

Marital status and survival in patients with renal cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Zhu, Ming-Xi; Qi, Si-Hua

2018-04-01

Previous studies have shown that marital status is an independent prognostic factor for survival in several types of cancer. In this study, we investigated the effects of marital status on survival outcomes among renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients.We identified patients diagnosed with RCC between 1973 and 2013 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression were used to identify the effects of marital status on overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS).We enrolled 97,662 eligible RCC patients, including 64,884 married patients, and 32,778 unmarried (9831 divorced/separated, 9692 widowed, and 13,255 single) patients at diagnosis. The 5-year OS and CSS rates of the married, separated/divorced, widowed, and single patients were 73.7%, 69.5%, 58.3%, and 73.2% (OS), and 82.2%, 80.7%, 75.7%, and 83.3% (CSS), respectively. Multivariate Cox regression showed that, compared with married patients, widowed individuals showed poorer OS (hazard ratio, 1.419; 95% confidence interval, 1.370-1.469) and CSS (hazard ratio, 1.210; 95% confidence interval, 1.144-1.279). Stratified analyses and multivariate Cox regression showed that, in the insured and uninsured groups, married patients had better survival outcomes while widowed patients suffered worse OS outcomes; however, this trend was not significant for CSS.In RCC patients, married patients had better survival outcomes while widowed patients tended to suffer worse survival outcomes in terms of both OS and CSS.

Marital status and survival in patients with renal cell carcinoma

PubMed Central

Li, Yan; Zhu, Ming-xi; Qi, Si-hua

2018-01-01

Abstract Previous studies have shown that marital status is an independent prognostic factor for survival in several types of cancer. In this study, we investigated the effects of marital status on survival outcomes among renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients. We identified patients diagnosed with RCC between 1973 and 2013 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Kaplan–Meier analysis and Cox regression were used to identify the effects of marital status on overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). We enrolled 97,662 eligible RCC patients, including 64,884 married patients, and 32,778 unmarried (9831 divorced/separated, 9692 widowed, and 13,255 single) patients at diagnosis. The 5-year OS and CSS rates of the married, separated/divorced, widowed, and single patients were 73.7%, 69.5%, 58.3%, and 73.2% (OS), and 82.2%, 80.7%, 75.7%, and 83.3% (CSS), respectively. Multivariate Cox regression showed that, compared with married patients, widowed individuals showed poorer OS (hazard ratio, 1.419; 95% confidence interval, 1.370–1.469) and CSS (hazard ratio, 1.210; 95% confidence interval, 1.144–1.279). Stratified analyses and multivariate Cox regression showed that, in the insured and uninsured groups, married patients had better survival outcomes while widowed patients suffered worse OS outcomes; however, this trend was not significant for CSS. In RCC patients, married patients had better survival outcomes while widowed patients tended to suffer worse survival outcomes in terms of both OS and CSS. PMID:29668592

Refining adverse drug reaction signals by incorporating interaction variables identified using emergent pattern mining.

PubMed

Reps, Jenna M; Aickelin, Uwe; Hubbard, Richard B

2016-02-01

To develop a framework for identifying and incorporating candidate confounding interaction terms into a regularised cox regression analysis to refine adverse drug reaction signals obtained via longitudinal observational data. We considered six drug families that are commonly associated with myocardial infarction in observational healthcare data, but where the causal relationship ground truth is known (adverse drug reaction or not). We applied emergent pattern mining to find itemsets of drugs and medical events that are associated with the development of myocardial infarction. These are the candidate confounding interaction terms. We then implemented a cohort study design using regularised cox regression that incorporated and accounted for the candidate confounding interaction terms. The methodology was able to account for signals generated due to confounding and a cox regression with elastic net regularisation correctly ranking the drug families known to be true adverse drug reactions above those that are not. This was not the case without the inclusion of the candidate confounding interaction terms, where confounding leads to a non-adverse drug reaction being ranked highest. The methodology is efficient, can identify high-order confounding interactions and does not require expert input to specify outcome specific confounders, so it can be applied for any outcome of interest to quickly refine its signals. The proposed method shows excellent potential to overcome some forms of confounding and therefore reduce the false positive rate for signal analysis using longitudinal data. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A stratification approach using logit-based models for confounder adjustment in the study of continuous outcomes.

PubMed

Tan, Chuen Seng; Støer, Nathalie C; Chen, Ying; Andersson, Marielle; Ning, Yilin; Wee, Hwee-Lin; Khoo, Eric Yin Hao; Tai, E-Shyong; Kao, Shih Ling; Reilly, Marie

2017-01-01

The control of confounding is an area of extensive epidemiological research, especially in the field of causal inference for observational studies. Matched cohort and case-control study designs are commonly implemented to control for confounding effects without specifying the functional form of the relationship between the outcome and confounders. This paper extends the commonly used regression models in matched designs for binary and survival outcomes (i.e. conditional logistic and stratified Cox proportional hazards) to studies of continuous outcomes through a novel interpretation and application of logit-based regression models from the econometrics and marketing research literature. We compare the performance of the maximum likelihood estimators using simulated data and propose a heuristic argument for obtaining the residuals for model diagnostics. We illustrate our proposed approach with two real data applications. Our simulation studies demonstrate that our stratification approach is robust to model misspecification and that the distribution of the estimated residuals provides a useful diagnostic when the strata are of moderate size. In our applications to real data, we demonstrate that parity and menopausal status are associated with percent mammographic density, and that the mean level and variability of inpatient blood glucose readings vary between medical and surgical wards within a national tertiary hospital. Our work highlights how the same class of regression models, available in most statistical software, can be used to adjust for confounding in the study of binary, time-to-event and continuous outcomes.

Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Women: Results from the Women’s Health Initiative

PubMed Central

Bavry, Anthony A.; Thomas, Fridtjof; Allison, Matthew; Johnson, Karen C.; Howard, Barbara V.; Hlatky, Mark; Manson, JoAnn E.; Limacher, Marian C.

2014-01-01

Background Conclusive data regarding cardiovascular (CV) toxicity of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are sparse. We hypothesized that regular NSAID use is associated with increased risk for CV events in post-menopausal women, and that this association is stronger with greater cyclooxygenase (cox)-2 compared with cox-1 inhibition. Methods and Results Post-menopausal women enrolled in the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) were classified as regular users or non-users of non-aspirin NSAIDs. Cox regression examined NSAID use as a time-varying covariate and its association with the primary outcome of total CV disease defined as CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. Secondary analyses considered the association of selective cox-2 inhibitors (e.g., celecoxib), non-selective agents with cox-2>cox-1 inhibition (e.g., naproxen), and non-selective agents with cox-1>cox-2 inhibition (e.g., ibuprofen) with the primary outcome. Overall, 160,801 participants were available for analysis (mean follow-up 11.2 years). Regular NSAID use at some point in time was reported by 53,142 participants. Regular NSAID use was associated with an increased hazard for CV events versus no NSAID use (HR=1.10[95% CI 1.06–1.15], Pitalic>0.001). Selective cox-2 inhibitors were associated with a modest increased hazard for CV events (HR=1.13[1.04–1.23], P=0.004; celecoxib only HR=1.13[1.01–1.27], P=0.031). Among aspirin users, concomitant selective cox-2 inhibitor use was no longer associated with increased hazard for CV events. There was an increased risk for agents with cox-2>cox-1 inhibition (HR=1.17[1.10–1.24], Pbold>0.001; naproxen only HR=1.22[1.12–1.34], P<0.001). This harmful association remained among concomitant aspirin users. We did not observe a risk elevation for agents with cox-1>cox-2 inhibition (HR=1.01[0.95–1.07], P=0.884; ibuprofen only HR=1.00[0.93–1.07], P=0.996). Conclusions Regular use of selective cox-2 inhibitors and non-selective NSAIDs with cox-2>cox-1 inhibition showed a modestly increased hazard for CV events. Non-selective agents with cox-1>cox-2 inhibition were not associated with increased CV risk. Clinical Trial Registration www.clinicaltrials.gov NCT00000611 PMID:25006185

Assessing household health expenditure with Box-Cox censoring models.

PubMed

Chaze, Jean-Paul

2005-09-01

In order to assess the combined presence of zero expenditures and a heavily skewed distribution of positive expenditures, the Box-Cox transformation with location parameter is used to define a set of models generalising the standard Tobit, Heckman selection and double-hurdle models. Extended flexibility with respect to previous specifications is introduced, notably regarding negative transformation parameters, which may prove necessary for medical expenditures, and corner-solution outcomes. An illustration is provided by the analysis of household health expenditure in Switzerland. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The importance of employment status in determining exit rates from nursing.

PubMed

Daniels, Frieda; Laporte, Audrey; Lemieux-Charles, Louise; Baumann, Andrea; Onate, Kanecy; Deber, Raisa

2012-01-01

To mitigate nurse shortages, health care decision makers tend to employ retention strategies that assume nurses employed in full-time, part-time, or casual positions and working in different sectors have similar preferences for work. However, this assumption has not been validated in the literature. The relationship between a nurse's propensity to exit the nurse profession in Ontario and employment status was explored by building an extended Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Model using a counting process technique. The differential exit patterns between part-time and casual nurses suggest that the common practice of treating part-time and casual nurses as equivalent is misleading. Health care decision makers should consider nurse retention strategies specifically targeting casual nurses because this segment of the profession is at the greatest risk of leaving. Nurse executives and nurse managers should investigate the different work preferences of part-time and casual nurses to devise tailored rather than "one-size fits all" nurse retention strategies to retain casual nurses.

Perceived Social Support Trajectories and the All-Cause Mortality Risk of Older Mexican American Women and Men

PubMed Central

Hill, Terrence D.; Uchino, Bert N.; Eckhardt, Jessica L.; Angel, Jacqueline L.

2016-01-01

Although numerous studies of non-Hispanic whites and blacks show that social integration and social support tend to favor longevity, it is unclear whether this general pattern extends to the Mexican American population. Building on previous research, we employed seven waves of data from the Hispanic Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly to examine the association between perceived social support trajectories and the all-cause mortality risk of older Mexican Americans. Growth mixture estimates revealed three latent classes of support trajectories: high, moderate, and low. Cox regression estimates indicated that older Mexican American men in the low support trajectory tend to exhibit a higher mortality risk than their counterparts in the high support trajectory. Social support trajectories were unrelated to the mortality risk of older Mexican American women. A statistically significant interaction term confirmed that social support was more strongly associated with the mortality risk of men. PMID:26966256

Perceived Social Support Trajectories and the All-Cause Mortality Risk of Older Mexican American Women and Men.

PubMed

Hill, Terrence D; Uchino, Bert N; Eckhardt, Jessica L; Angel, Jacqueline L

2016-04-01

Although numerous studies of non-Hispanic Whites and Blacks show that social integration and social support tend to favor longevity, it is unclear whether this general pattern extends to the Mexican American population. Building on previous research, we employed seven waves of data from the Hispanic Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly to examine the association between perceived social support trajectories and the all-cause mortality risk of older Mexican Americans. Growth mixture estimates revealed three latent classes of support trajectories: high, moderate, and low. Cox regression estimates indicated that older Mexican American men in the low support trajectory tend to exhibit a higher mortality risk than their counterparts in the high support trajectory. Social support trajectories were unrelated to the mortality risk of older Mexican American women. A statistically significant interaction term confirmed that social support was more strongly associated with the mortality risk of men. © The Author(s) 2015.

Aryl Hydrocarbon Receptor-Dependent Retention of Nuclear HuR Suppresses Cigarette Smoke-Induced Cyclooxygenase-2 Expression Independent of DNA-Binding

PubMed Central

Zago, Michela; Sheridan, Jared A.; Nair, Parameswaran; Rico de Souza, Angela; Gallouzi, Imed-Eddine; Rousseau, Simon; Di Marco, Sergio; Hamid, Qutayba; Eidelman, David H.; Baglole, Carolyn J.

2013-01-01

The aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR), a ligand-activated transcription factor that responds to man-made environmental toxicants, has emerged as an endogenous regulator of cyclooxygenase-2 (Cox-2) by a mechanism that is poorly understood. In this study, we first used AhR-deficient (AhR−/−) primary pulmonary cells, together with pharmacological tools to inhibit new RNA synthesis, to show that the AhR is a prominent factor in the destabilization of Cox-2 mRNA. The destabilization of Cox-2 mRNA and subsequent suppression of cigarette smoke-induced COX-2 protein expression by the AhR was independent of its ability to bind the dioxin response element (DRE), thereby differentiating the DRE-driven toxicological AhR pathway from its anti-inflammatory abilities. We further describe that the AhR destabilizes Cox-2 mRNA by sequestering HuR within the nucleus. The role of HuR in AhR stabilization of Cox-2 mRNA was confirmed by knockdown of HuR, which resulted in rapid Cox-2 mRNA degradation. Finally, in the lungs of AhR−/− mice exposed to cigarette smoke, there was little Cox-2 mRNA despite robust COX-2 protein expression, a finding that correlates with almost exclusive cytoplasmic HuR within the lungs of AhR−/− mice. Therefore, we propose that the AhR plays an important role in suppressing the expression of inflammatory proteins, a function that extends beyond the ability of the AhR to respond to man-made toxicants. These findings open the possibility that a DRE-independent AhR pathway may be exploited therapeutically as an anti-inflammatory target. PMID:24086407

Aryl hydrocarbon receptor-dependent retention of nuclear HuR suppresses cigarette smoke-induced cyclooxygenase-2 expression independent of DNA-binding.

PubMed

Zago, Michela; Sheridan, Jared A; Nair, Parameswaran; Rico de Souza, Angela; Gallouzi, Imed-Eddine; Rousseau, Simon; Di Marco, Sergio; Hamid, Qutayba; Eidelman, David H; Baglole, Carolyn J

2013-01-01

The aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR), a ligand-activated transcription factor that responds to man-made environmental toxicants, has emerged as an endogenous regulator of cyclooxygenase-2 (Cox-2) by a mechanism that is poorly understood. In this study, we first used AhR-deficient (AhR(-/-) ) primary pulmonary cells, together with pharmacological tools to inhibit new RNA synthesis, to show that the AhR is a prominent factor in the destabilization of Cox-2 mRNA. The destabilization of Cox-2 mRNA and subsequent suppression of cigarette smoke-induced COX-2 protein expression by the AhR was independent of its ability to bind the dioxin response element (DRE), thereby differentiating the DRE-driven toxicological AhR pathway from its anti-inflammatory abilities. We further describe that the AhR destabilizes Cox-2 mRNA by sequestering HuR within the nucleus. The role of HuR in AhR stabilization of Cox-2 mRNA was confirmed by knockdown of HuR, which resulted in rapid Cox-2 mRNA degradation. Finally, in the lungs of AhR(-/-) mice exposed to cigarette smoke, there was little Cox-2 mRNA despite robust COX-2 protein expression, a finding that correlates with almost exclusive cytoplasmic HuR within the lungs of AhR(-/-) mice. Therefore, we propose that the AhR plays an important role in suppressing the expression of inflammatory proteins, a function that extends beyond the ability of the AhR to respond to man-made toxicants. These findings open the possibility that a DRE-independent AhR pathway may be exploited therapeutically as an anti-inflammatory target.

Effects of the estrous cycle, pregnancy and interferon tau on expression of cyclooxygenase two (COX-2) in ovine endometrium

PubMed Central

Kim, Seokwoon; Choi, Youngsok; Spencer, Thomas E; Bazer, Fuller W

2003-01-01

In sheep, the uterus produces luteolytic pulses of prostaglandin F2α (PGF) on Days 15 to 16 of estrous cycle to regress the corpus luteum (CL). These PGF pulses are produced by the endometrial lumenal epithelium (LE) and superficial ductal glandular epithelium (sGE) in response to binding of pituitary and/or luteal oxytocin to oxytocin receptors (OTR) and liberation of arachidonic acid, the precursor of PGF. Cyclooxygenase-one (COX-1) and COX-2 are rate-limiting enzymes in PGF synthesis, and COX-2 is the major form expressed in ovine endometrium. During pregnancy recognition, interferon tau (IFNτ), produced by the conceptus trophectoderm, acts in a paracrine manner to suppress development of the endometrial epithelial luteolytic mechanism by inhibiting transcription of estrogen receptor α (ERα) (directly) and OTR (indirectly) genes. Conflicting studies indicate that IFNτ increases, decreases or has no effect on COX-2 expression in bovine and ovine endometrial cells. In Study One, COX-2 mRNA and protein were detected solely in endometrial LE and sGE of both cyclic and pregnant ewes. During the estrous cycle, COX-2 expression increased from Days 10 to 12 and then decreased to Day 16. During early pregnancy, COX-2 expression increased from Days 10 to 12 and remained higher than in cyclic ewes. In Study Two, intrauterine infusion of recombinant ovine IFNτ in cyclic ewes from Days 11 to 16 post-estrus did not affect COX-2 expression in the endometrial epithelium. These results clearly indicate that IFNτ has no effect on expression of the COX-2 gene in the ovine endometrium. Therefore, antiluteolytic effects of IFNτ are to inhibit ERα and OTR gene transcription, thereby preventing endometrial production of luteolytic pulses of PGF. Indeed, expression of COX-2 in the endometrial epithelia as well as conceptus is likely to have a beneficial regulatory role in implantation and development of the conceptus. PMID:12956885

Sodium Intake and Osteoporosis. Findings From the Women's Health Initiative.

PubMed

Carbone, Laura; Johnson, Karen C; Huang, Ying; Pettinger, Mary; Thomas, Fridjtof; Cauley, Jane; Crandall, Carolyn; Tinker, Lesley; LeBoff, Meryl Susan; Wactawski-Wende, Jean; Bethel, Monique; Li, Wenjun; Prentice, Ross

2016-04-01

In this large, prospective, observational cohort study of postmenopausal women in the WHI, Cox proportional hazard regression models showed that sodium intake at or near recommended levels is not likely to impact bone metabolism.

An evaluation of treatment strategies for head and neck cancer in an African American population.

PubMed

Ignacio, D N; Griffin, J J; Daniel, M G; Serlemitsos-Day, M T; Lombardo, F A; Alleyne, T A

2013-07-01

This study evaluated treatment strategies for head and neck cancers in a predominantly African American population. Data were collected utilizing medical records and the tumour registry at the Howard University Hospital. Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis predicted the hazard of death. Analysis revealed that the main treatment strategy was radiation combined with platinum for all stages except stage I. Cetuximab was employed in only 1% of cases. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed stage II patients had poorer outcome than stage IV while Cox proportional hazard regression analysis (p = 0.4662) showed that stage I had a significantly lower hazard of death than stage IV (HR = 0.314; p = 0.0272). Contributory factors included tobacco and alcohol but body mass index (BMI) was inversely related to hazard of death. There was no difference in survival using any treatment modality for African Americans.

Cyclooxygenase 2 gene polymorphisms and chronic periodontitis in a North Indian population: a pilot study

PubMed Central

Daing, Anika; Singh, Sarvendra Vikram; Saimbi, Charanjeet Singh; Khan, Mohammad Akhlaq

2012-01-01

Purpose Cyclooxygenase (COX) enzyme catalyzes the production of prostaglandins, which are important mediators of tissue destruction in periodontitis. Single nucleotide polymorphisms of COX2 enzyme have been associated with increasing susceptibility to inflammatory diseases. The present study evaluates the association of two single nucleotide polymorphisms in COX2 gene (-1195G>A and 8473C>T) with chronic periodontitis in North Indians. Methods Both SNPs and their haplotypes were used to explore the associations between COX2 polymorphisms and chronic periodontitis in 56 patients and 60 controls. Genotyping was done by polymerase chain reaction followed by restriction fragment length polymorphism. Chi-square test and logistic regression analysis were performed for association analysis. Results By the individual genotype analysis, mutant genotypes (GA and AA) of COX2 -1195 showed more than a two fold risk (odds ratio [OR]>2) and COX2 8473 (TC and CC) showed a reduced risk for the disease, but the findings were not statistically significant. Haplotype analysis showed that the frequency of the haplotype AT was higher in the case group and a significant association was found for haplotype AT (OR, 1.79; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 3.11; P=0.0370) indicating an association between the AT haplotype of COX2 gene SNPs and chronic periodontitis. Conclusions Individual genotypes of both the SNPs were not associated while haplotype AT was found to be associated with chronic periodontitis in North Indians. PMID:23185695

Comparison and validation of statistical methods for predicting power outage durations in the event of hurricanes.

PubMed

Nateghi, Roshanak; Guikema, Seth D; Quiring, Steven M

2011-12-01

This article compares statistical methods for modeling power outage durations during hurricanes and examines the predictive accuracy of these methods. Being able to make accurate predictions of power outage durations is valuable because the information can be used by utility companies to plan their restoration efforts more efficiently. This information can also help inform customers and public agencies of the expected outage times, enabling better collective response planning, and coordination of restoration efforts for other critical infrastructures that depend on electricity. In the long run, outage duration estimates for future storm scenarios may help utilities and public agencies better allocate risk management resources to balance the disruption from hurricanes with the cost of hardening power systems. We compare the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of five distinct statistical models for estimating power outage duration times caused by Hurricane Ivan in 2004. The methods compared include both regression models (accelerated failure time (AFT) and Cox proportional hazard models (Cox PH)) and data mining techniques (regression trees, Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), and multivariate additive regression splines). We then validate our models against two other hurricanes. Our results indicate that BART yields the best prediction accuracy and that it is possible to predict outage durations with reasonable accuracy. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Quantile regression via vector generalized additive models.

PubMed

Yee, Thomas W

2004-07-30

One of the most popular methods for quantile regression is the LMS method of Cole and Green. The method naturally falls within a penalized likelihood framework, and consequently allows for considerable flexible because all three parameters may be modelled by cubic smoothing splines. The model is also very understandable: for a given value of the covariate, the LMS method applies a Box-Cox transformation to the response in order to transform it to standard normality; to obtain the quantiles, an inverse Box-Cox transformation is applied to the quantiles of the standard normal distribution. The purposes of this article are three-fold. Firstly, LMS quantile regression is presented within the framework of the class of vector generalized additive models. This confers a number of advantages such as a unifying theory and estimation process. Secondly, a new LMS method based on the Yeo-Johnson transformation is proposed, which has the advantage that the response is not restricted to be positive. Lastly, this paper describes a software implementation of three LMS quantile regression methods in the S language. This includes the LMS-Yeo-Johnson method, which is estimated efficiently by a new numerical integration scheme. The LMS-Yeo-Johnson method is illustrated by way of a large cross-sectional data set from a New Zealand working population. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The TP53 gene polymorphisms and survival of sporadic breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Bišof, V; Salihović, M Peričić; Narančić, N Smolej; Skarić-Jurić, T; Jakić-Razumović, J; Janićijević, B; Rudan, P

2012-06-01

The TP53 gene polymorphisms, Arg72Pro and PIN3 (+16 bp), can have prognostic and predictive value in different cancers including breast cancer. The aim of the present study is to investigate a potential association between different genotypes of these polymorphisms and clinicopathological variables with survival of breast cancer patients in Croatian population. Ninety-four women with sporadic breast cancer were retrospectively analyzed. Median follow-up period was 67.9 months. The effects of basic clinical and histopathological characteristics of tumor on survival were tested by Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis. The TNM stage was associated with overall survival by Kaplan-Meier analysis, univariate, and multivariate Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis, while grade was associated with survival by Kaplan-Meier analysis and univariate Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis. Different genotypes of the Arg72Pro and PIN3 (+16 bp) polymorphisms had no significant impact on survival in breast cancer patients. However, in subgroup of patients treated with chemotherapy without anthracycline, the A2A2 genotype of the PIN3 (+16 bp) polymorphism was associated with poorer overall survival than other genotypes by Kaplan-Meier analysis (P = 0.048). The TP53 polymorphisms, Arg72Pro and PIN3 (+16 bp), had no impact on survival in unselected sporadic breast cancer patients in Croatian population. However, the results support the role of the A2A2 genotype of the PIN3 (+16 bp) polymorphism as a marker for identification of patients that may benefit from anthracycline-containing chemotherapy.

Considerations for analysis of time-to-event outcomes measured with error: Bias and correction with SIMEX.

PubMed

Oh, Eric J; Shepherd, Bryan E; Lumley, Thomas; Shaw, Pamela A

2018-04-15

For time-to-event outcomes, a rich literature exists on the bias introduced by covariate measurement error in regression models, such as the Cox model, and methods of analysis to address this bias. By comparison, less attention has been given to understanding the impact or addressing errors in the failure time outcome. For many diseases, the timing of an event of interest (such as progression-free survival or time to AIDS progression) can be difficult to assess or reliant on self-report and therefore prone to measurement error. For linear models, it is well known that random errors in the outcome variable do not bias regression estimates. With nonlinear models, however, even random error or misclassification can introduce bias into estimated parameters. We compare the performance of 2 common regression models, the Cox and Weibull models, in the setting of measurement error in the failure time outcome. We introduce an extension of the SIMEX method to correct for bias in hazard ratio estimates from the Cox model and discuss other analysis options to address measurement error in the response. A formula to estimate the bias induced into the hazard ratio by classical measurement error in the event time for a log-linear survival model is presented. Detailed numerical studies are presented to examine the performance of the proposed SIMEX method under varying levels and parametric forms of the error in the outcome. We further illustrate the method with observational data on HIV outcomes from the Vanderbilt Comprehensive Care Clinic. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Does buccal cancer have worse prognosis than other oral cavity cancers?

PubMed

Camilon, P Ryan; Stokes, William A; Fuller, Colin W; Nguyen, Shaun A; Lentsch, Eric J

2014-06-01

To determine whether buccal squamous cell carcinoma has worse overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) than cancers in the rest of the oral cavity. Retrospective analysis of a large population database. We began with a Kaplan-Meier analysis of OS and DSS for buccal versus nonbuccal tumors with unmatched data, followed by an analysis of cases matched for race, age at diagnosis, stage at diagnosis, and treatment modality. This was supported by a univariate Cox regression comparing buccal cancer to nonbuccal cancer, followed by a multivariate Cox regression that included all significant variables studied. With unmatched data, buccal cancer had significantly lesser OS and DSS values than cancers in the rest of the oral cavity (P < .001). After case matching, the differences between OS and DSS for buccal cancer versus nonbuccal oral cancer were no longer significant. Univariate Cox regression models with respect to OS and DSS showed a significant difference between buccal cancer and nonbuccal cancer. However, with multivariate analysis, buccal hazard ratios for OS and DSS were not significant. With the largest series of buccal carcinoma to date, our study concludes that the OS and DSS of buccal cancer are similar to those of cancers in other oral cavity sites once age at diagnosis, tumor stage, treatment, and race are taken into consideration. The previously perceived poor prognosis of buccal carcinoma may be due to variations in tumor presentation, such as later stage and older patient age. 2b. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Assessing the prediction accuracy of cure in the Cox proportional hazards cure model: an application to breast cancer data.

PubMed

Asano, Junichi; Hirakawa, Akihiro; Hamada, Chikuma

2014-01-01

A cure rate model is a survival model incorporating the cure rate with the assumption that the population contains both uncured and cured individuals. It is a powerful statistical tool for prognostic studies, especially in cancer. The cure rate is important for making treatment decisions in clinical practice. The proportional hazards (PH) cure model can predict the cure rate for each patient. This contains a logistic regression component for the cure rate and a Cox regression component to estimate the hazard for uncured patients. A measure for quantifying the predictive accuracy of the cure rate estimated by the Cox PH cure model is required, as there has been a lack of previous research in this area. We used the Cox PH cure model for the breast cancer data; however, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) could not be estimated because many patients were censored. In this study, we used imputation-based AUCs to assess the predictive accuracy of the cure rate from the PH cure model. We examined the precision of these AUCs using simulation studies. The results demonstrated that the imputation-based AUCs were estimable and their biases were negligibly small in many cases, although ordinary AUC could not be estimated. Additionally, we introduced the bias-correction method of imputation-based AUCs and found that the bias-corrected estimate successfully compensated the overestimation in the simulation studies. We also illustrated the estimation of the imputation-based AUCs using breast cancer data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Introduction to the use of regression models in epidemiology.

PubMed

Bender, Ralf

2009-01-01

Regression modeling is one of the most important statistical techniques used in analytical epidemiology. By means of regression models the effect of one or several explanatory variables (e.g., exposures, subject characteristics, risk factors) on a response variable such as mortality or cancer can be investigated. From multiple regression models, adjusted effect estimates can be obtained that take the effect of potential confounders into account. Regression methods can be applied in all epidemiologic study designs so that they represent a universal tool for data analysis in epidemiology. Different kinds of regression models have been developed in dependence on the measurement scale of the response variable and the study design. The most important methods are linear regression for continuous outcomes, logistic regression for binary outcomes, Cox regression for time-to-event data, and Poisson regression for frequencies and rates. This chapter provides a nontechnical introduction to these regression models with illustrating examples from cancer research.

Prognostic Value of Pretherapeutic Tumor-to-Blood Standardized Uptake Ratio in Patients with Esophageal Carcinoma.

PubMed

Bütof, Rebecca; Hofheinz, Frank; Zöphel, Klaus; Stadelmann, Tobias; Schmollack, Julia; Jentsch, Christina; Löck, Steffen; Kotzerke, Jörg; Baumann, Michael; van den Hoff, Jörg

2015-08-01

Despite ongoing efforts to develop new treatment options, the prognosis for patients with inoperable esophageal carcinoma is still poor and the reliability of individual therapy outcome prediction based on clinical parameters is not convincing. The aim of this work was to investigate whether PET can provide independent prognostic information in such a patient group and whether the tumor-to-blood standardized uptake ratio (SUR) can improve the prognostic value of tracer uptake values. (18)F-FDG PET/CT was performed in 130 consecutive patients (mean age ± SD, 63 ± 11 y; 113 men, 17 women) with newly diagnosed esophageal cancer before definitive radiochemotherapy. In the PET images, the metabolically active tumor volume (MTV) of the primary tumor was delineated with an adaptive threshold method. The blood standardized uptake value (SUV) was determined by manually delineating the aorta in the low-dose CT. SUR values were computed as the ratio of tumor SUV and blood SUV. Uptake values were scan-time-corrected to 60 min after injection. Univariate Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis with respect to overall survival (OS), distant metastases-free survival (DM), and locoregional tumor control (LRC) was performed. Additionally, a multivariate Cox regression including clinically relevant parameters was performed. In multivariate Cox regression with respect to OS, including T stage, N stage, and smoking state, MTV- and SUR-based parameters were significant prognostic factors for OS with similar effect size. Multivariate analysis with respect to DM revealed smoking state, MTV, and all SUR-based parameters as significant prognostic factors. The highest hazard ratios (HRs) were found for scan-time-corrected maximum SUR (HR = 3.9) and mean SUR (HR = 4.4). None of the PET parameters was associated with LRC. Univariate Cox regression with respect to LRC revealed a significant effect only for N stage greater than 0 (P = 0.048). PET provides independent prognostic information for OS and DM but not for LRC in patients with locally advanced esophageal carcinoma treated with definitive radiochemotherapy in addition to clinical parameters. Among the investigated uptake-based parameters, only SUR was an independent prognostic factor for OS and DM. These results suggest that the prognostic value of tracer uptake can be improved when characterized by SUR instead of SUV. Further investigations are required to confirm these preliminary results. © 2015 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Inc.

Functional polymorphisms of cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) gene and risk for esophageal squmaous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Upadhyay, Rohit; Jain, Meenu; Kumar, Shaleen; Ghoshal, Uday Chand; Mittal, Balraj

2009-04-26

Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) influences carcinogenesis through regulation of angiogenesis, apoptosis and cytokine expression. We aimed to evaluate association of COX-2 polymorphisms with predisposition to esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), its phenotype variability and modulation of environmental risk in northern Indian population. We genotyped 174 patients with ESCC and 216 controls for COX-2 gene polymorphisms (-765G>C; -1195G>A; -1290A>G; 3'UTR 8473T>C) using PCR-RFLP. Data were statistically analyzed using chi-square test and logistic regression model. COX-2 -765C allele carriers were at increased risk for ESCC (OR=1.66; 95% CI=1.08-2.54; P=0.004). However, -1195G>A; -1290A>G; 3'UTR 8473T>C polymorphisms of COX-2 gene were not significantly associated with ESCC. We observed significantly enhanced risk for ESCC due to interaction between COX-2 -1195GAx-765GC+CC genotypes (OR=4.60; 95% CI=1.63-13.01; P=0.004). High risk to ESCC was also observed with respect to COX-2 haplotypes, A(-1290)G(-1195)C(-765)T(8473) and A(-1290)A(-1195)C(-765)T(8473) [OR=3.35; 95% CI=0.83-13.44; P=0.089; OR=4.28; 95% CI=0.43-42.40; P=0.246] however, it was not statistically significant. Stratification of subjects based on gender showed that females were at higher risk for ESCC due to COX-2 -765C carrier genotypes (OR=2.97; 95% CI=1.23-7.18; P=0.016). In association of genotypes with clinical characteristics, -765C carrier genotype conferred risk of ESCC in middle third of esophagus (OR=1.78; 95% CI=1.08-2.93; P=0.023). In case-only analysis, interaction of environmental risk factors and COX-2 genotypes did not further modulate the risk for ESCC. In summary, COX-2 -765G>C polymorphism confers ESCC susceptibility particularly in females and patients with middle third anatomical location of the tumor. Interaction of COX-2 -1195GA and -765C carrier genotypes also modulates ESCC risk.

Network regularised Cox regression and multiplex network models to predict disease comorbidities and survival of cancer.

PubMed

Xu, Haoming; Moni, Mohammad Ali; Liò, Pietro

2015-12-01

In cancer genomics, gene expression levels provide important molecular signatures for all types of cancer, and this could be very useful for predicting the survival of cancer patients. However, the main challenge of gene expression data analysis is high dimensionality, and microarray is characterised by few number of samples with large number of genes. To overcome this problem, a variety of penalised Cox proportional hazard models have been proposed. We introduce a novel network regularised Cox proportional hazard model and a novel multiplex network model to measure the disease comorbidities and to predict survival of the cancer patient. Our methods are applied to analyse seven microarray cancer gene expression datasets: breast cancer, ovarian cancer, lung cancer, liver cancer, renal cancer and osteosarcoma. Firstly, we applied a principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of original gene expression data. Secondly, we applied a network regularised Cox regression model on the reduced gene expression datasets. By using normalised mutual information method and multiplex network model, we predict the comorbidities for the liver cancer based on the integration of diverse set of omics and clinical data, and we find the diseasome associations (disease-gene association) among different cancers based on the identified common significant genes. Finally, we evaluated the precision of the approach with respect to the accuracy of survival prediction using ROC curves. We report that colon cancer, liver cancer and renal cancer share the CXCL5 gene, and breast cancer, ovarian cancer and renal cancer share the CCND2 gene. Our methods are useful to predict survival of the patient and disease comorbidities more accurately and helpful for improvement of the care of patients with comorbidity. Software in Matlab and R is available on our GitHub page: https://github.com/ssnhcom/NetworkRegularisedCox.git. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Zone zero thoracic endovascular aortic repair: A proposed modification to the classification of landing zones.

PubMed

Roselli, Eric E; Idrees, Jay J; Johnston, Douglas R; Eagleton, Matthew J; Desai, Milind Y; Svensson, Lars G

2018-04-01

Endovascular stent-grafting provides an alternative treatment option for high-risk patients with ascending aortic disease. The feasibility of this approach has been demonstrated before. We assess the updated experience with ascending thoracic endovascular aortic repair and propose a modification of the landing zone classification based on the outcomes. From 2006 to 2016, 39 patients deemed very high risk for open replacement underwent endovascular repair of ascending aorta for acute type A dissection (12, 31%), intramural hematoma (2, 5%), pseudoaneurysm (22, 56%), and chronic dissection suture line entry tear (3, 8%). Ascending thoracic endovascular aortic repair was performed in 36 patients. In 3 patients with pseudoaneurysm, occluder devices were used. Computed tomography imaging analysis was performed, and the extent of aortic pathology was designated by segmental proximity to the left ventricle. Segmental anatomy of the proximal aorta was designed as zone 0A from the annulus to the distal margin of highest coronary, 0B extends from above the coronary to the distal margin of right pulmonary artery, and 0C extends from the right pulmonary artery border to the innominate artery. Multivariable time to event Cox regression analysis was performed to predict mortality, and long-term survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Operative mortality was 13%; all 5 deaths occurred after emergency ascending thoracic endovascular aortic repair for type A dissection. Other complications included stroke in 4 patients (10%), myocardial infarction in 2 patients (5%), tracheostomy in 2 patients (5%), and dialysis in 2 patients (5%). In patients with acute type A dissection, the ascending pathology extended into zone 0A in 10 (71%) and 0B in 4 (29%). Among those with pseudoaneurysm, the location of the defect was in 0B in 11 (50%), 0C in 10 (45%), and 0A in 1. Among the patients with chronic dissection, the defect was located in 0C in all 3 (100%). After multivariable adjustment, Cox regression predicted significantly higher hazard of mortality with disease involving zone 0A versus 0C (P = .020) and older age (P = .026). Kaplan-Meier estimate of survival was also significantly worse in patients with disease extension into 0A versus 0C (P = .0018). At 30 days, 1 year, and 5 years, the overall survival was 81%, 74%, and 64% and freedom from reintervention was 85%, 77%, and 68%, respectively. The modified zone zero classification is useful for characterizing extent of ascending aortic pathology and assessing prognosis. Location of the defect varies by pathology, and the presence of 0A disease predicts worse outcomes. Design of endovascular devices should be tailored to the aortic pathology and zone characteristics. Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prenatal smoking and age at menarche: influence of the prenatal environment on the timing of puberty.

PubMed

Behie, A M; O'Donnell, M H

2015-04-01

Do prenatal exposure to cigarette smoking and birthweight influence age at menarche (AAM) in a cohort of Australian girls? We find that prenatal smoke exposure and lower birthweight increase the chance of earlier menarche in accordance with theoretical predictions as do confounding factors of maternal AAM and higher BMI of the girls. Much prior research focuses on the role of the early childhood environment in determining AAM but fewer studies consider the role of the prenatal environment. Those studies that examine the prenatal period find an acceleration of maturation associated with maternal smoking and low birthweight. Life history theory predicts that early life exposure to stressful environments should promote more rapid maturation and that this timing can be established before birth, making the prenatal environment particularly important. Statistical analysis of longitudinal survey data collected from a large cohort (n = 2446) of Australian children using data from birth to 12-13 years of age. Owing to missing data, 1493 girls were included in the final analysis. Using cox regression, we examine how (i) maternal cigarette smoking during gestation and (ii) birthweight influence girls' AAM. Cox regression was used because not all girls had reached menarche. We find that older maternal AAM (hazards ratio (HR): 0.75, confidence interval (CI) (95%): 0.71-0.79) and higher birthweight (HR: 0.86, CI (95%): 0.75-0.97) lower the chance of earlier menarche; while higher girls' BMI at 8-9 years (HR: 1.12, CI (95%): 1.10-1.15), and maternal cigarette smoking on 'most days' during gestation (HR: 1.40, CI (95%): 1.10-1.79 with 'no smoking' as the reference level) increased the chance of earlier menarche. All factors were statistically significant at P = 0.05. Not all girls had reached menarche, necessitating the use of cox regression. As with other longitudinal studies, there was study sample attrition and some missing data, particularly in reports of maternal smoking. In addition, as the degree of bias in the missing data is unknown, possible inaccurate reporting of maternal smoking may influence the results of birthweight on AAM. Because of the association between younger AAM and higher risk of uterine, endometrial and breast cancer development, our finding adds to the need to consider the stress caused by prenatal smoke exposure as an important health risk. In addition, this study needs to be extended, when the same girls are 14-15 years of age, and on a larger dataset from a younger cohort within the same Australian Government project. No funding was received for this study and there are no competing interests to declare. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The influence of sarcopenia on survival and surgical complications in ovarian cancer patients undergoing primary debulking surgery.

PubMed

Rutten, I J G; Ubachs, J; Kruitwagen, R F P M; van Dijk, D P J; Beets-Tan, R G H; Massuger, L F A G; Olde Damink, S W M; Van Gorp, T

2017-04-01

Sarcopenia, severe skeletal muscle loss, has been identified as a prognostic factor in various malignancies. This study aims to investigate whether sarcopenia is associated with overall survival (OS) and surgical complications in patients with advanced ovarian cancer undergoing primary debulking surgery (PDS). Ovarian cancer patients (n = 216) treated with PDS were enrolled retrospectively. Total skeletal muscle surface area was measured on axial computed tomography at the level of the third lumbar vertebra. Optimum stratification was used to find the optimal skeletal muscle index cut-off to define sarcopenia (≤38.73 cm 2 /m 2 ). Cox-regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis were used to analyse the relationship between sarcopenia and OS. The effect of sarcopenia on the development of major surgical complications was studied with logistic regression. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant survival disadvantage for patients with sarcopenia compared to patients without sarcopenia (p = 0.010). Sarcopenia univariably predicted OS (HR 1.536 (95% CI 1.105-2.134), p = 0.011) but was not significant in multivariable Cox-regression analysis (HR 1.362 (95% CI 0.968-1.916), p = 0.076). Significant predictors for OS in multivariable Cox-regression analysis were complete PDS, treatment in a specialised centre and the development of major complications. Sarcopenia was not predictive of major complications. Sarcopenia was not predictive of OS or major complications in ovarian cancer patients undergoing primary debulking surgery. However a strong trend towards a survival disadvantage for patients with sarcopenia was seen. Future prospective studies should focus on interventions to prevent or reverse sarcopenia and possibly increase ovarian cancer survival. Complete cytoreduction remains the strongest predictor of ovarian cancer survival. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd, BASO ~ The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights reserved.

The role of chemoprevention by selective cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors in colorectal cancer patients - a population-based study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background There are limited population-based studies focusing on the chemopreventive effects of selective cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitors against colorectal cancer. The purpose of this study is to assess the trends and dose–response effects of various medication possession ratios (MPR) of selective COX-2 inhibitor used for chemoprevention of colorectal cancer. Methods A population-based case–control study was conducted using the Taiwan Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). The study comprised 21,460 colorectal cancer patients and 79,331 controls. The conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) for COX-2 inhibitors used for several durations (5 years, 3 years, 1 year, 6 months and 3 months) prior to the index date. Results In patients receiving selective COX-2 inhibitors, the OR was 0.51 (95% CI=0.29~0.90, p=0.021) for an estimated 5-year period in developing colorectal cancer. ORs showing significant protection effects were found in 10% of MPRs for 5-year, 3-year, and 1-year usage. Risk reduction against colorectal cancer by selective COX-2 inhibitors was observed as early as 6 months after usage. Conclusion Our results indicate that selective COX-2 inhibitors may reduce the development of colorectal cancer by at least 10% based on the MPRs evaluated. Given the limited number of clinical reports from general populations, our results add to the knowledge of chemopreventive effects of selective COX-2 inhibitors against cancer in individuals at no increased risk of colorectal cancer. PMID:23217168

Bootstrap-based methods for estimating standard errors in Cox's regression analyses of clustered event times.

PubMed

Xiao, Yongling; Abrahamowicz, Michal

2010-03-30

We propose two bootstrap-based methods to correct the standard errors (SEs) from Cox's model for within-cluster correlation of right-censored event times. The cluster-bootstrap method resamples, with replacement, only the clusters, whereas the two-step bootstrap method resamples (i) the clusters, and (ii) individuals within each selected cluster, with replacement. In simulations, we evaluate both methods and compare them with the existing robust variance estimator and the shared gamma frailty model, which are available in statistical software packages. We simulate clustered event time data, with latent cluster-level random effects, which are ignored in the conventional Cox's model. For cluster-level covariates, both proposed bootstrap methods yield accurate SEs, and type I error rates, and acceptable coverage rates, regardless of the true random effects distribution, and avoid serious variance under-estimation by conventional Cox-based standard errors. However, the two-step bootstrap method over-estimates the variance for individual-level covariates. We also apply the proposed bootstrap methods to obtain confidence bands around flexible estimates of time-dependent effects in a real-life analysis of cluster event times.

Monotonic non-linear transformations as a tool to investigate age-related effects on brain white matter integrity: A Box-Cox investigation.

PubMed

Morozova, Maria; Koschutnig, Karl; Klein, Elise; Wood, Guilherme

2016-01-15

Non-linear effects of age on white matter integrity are ubiquitous in the brain and indicate that these effects are more pronounced in certain brain regions at specific ages. Box-Cox analysis is a technique to increase the log-likelihood of linear relationships between variables by means of monotonic non-linear transformations. Here we employ Box-Cox transformations to flexibly and parsimoniously determine the degree of non-linearity of age-related effects on white matter integrity by means of model comparisons using a voxel-wise approach. Analysis of white matter integrity in a sample of adults between 20 and 89years of age (n=88) revealed that considerable portions of the white matter in the corpus callosum, cerebellum, pallidum, brainstem, superior occipito-frontal fascicle and optic radiation show non-linear effects of age. Global analyses revealed an increase in the average non-linearity from fractional anisotropy to radial diffusivity, axial diffusivity, and mean diffusivity. These results suggest that Box-Cox transformations are a useful and flexible tool to investigate more complex non-linear effects of age on white matter integrity and extend the functionality of the Box-Cox analysis in neuroimaging. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Low-dose aspirin, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, selective COX-2 inhibitors and breast cancer recurrence

PubMed Central

Cronin-Fenton, Deirdre P; Heide-Jørgensen, Uffe; Ahern, Thomas P; Lash, Timothy L; Christiansen, Peer; Ejlertsen, Bent; Sørensen, Henrik T

2017-01-01

Background Aspirin, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), and selective COX-2 inhibitors may improve outcomes in breast cancer patients. We investigated the association of aspirin, NSAIDs, and use of selective COX-2 inhibitors with breast cancer recurrence. Methods We identified incident stage I–III Danish breast cancer patients in the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group registry, who were diagnosed during 1996–2008. Prescriptions for aspirin (>99% low-dose aspirin), NSAIDs, and selective COX-2 inhibitors were ascertained from the National Prescription Registry (NPR). Follow-up began on the date of breast cancer primary surgery and continued until the first of recurrence, death, emigration, or 01/01/2013. We used Cox regression models to compute hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) associating prescriptions with recurrence, adjusting for confounders. Results We identified 34,188 breast cancer patients with 233,130 person-years of follow-up. Median follow-up was 7.1 years; 5,325 patients developed recurrent disease. Use of aspirin, NSAIDs, or selective COX-2 inhibitors was not associated with the rate of recurrence (HRadjusted aspirin=1.0, 95% CI=0.90, 1.1; NSAIDs=0.99, 95% CI=0.92, 1.1; selective COX-2 inhibitors=1.1, 95% CI=0.98, 1.2), relative to non-use. Pre-diagnostic use of the exposure drugs was associated with reduced recurrence rates (HRaspirin=0.92, 95%CI=0.82, 1.0; HRNSAIDs=0.86, 95%CI=0.81, 0.91; HRsCOX-2inhibitors=0.88, 95%CI=0.83, 0.95). Conclusions This prospective cohort study suggests that post-diagnostic prescriptions for aspirin, NSAIDs, and selective COX-2 inhibitors have little or no association with the rate of breast cancer recurrence. Pre-diagnostic use of the drugs was, however, associated with a reduced rate of breast cancer recurrence. PMID:27007644

Anti-inflammatory use may not negatively impact oncologic outcomes following intravesical BCG for high-grade non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer.

PubMed

Singla, Nirmish; Haddad, Ahmed Q; Passoni, Niccolo M; Meissner, Matthew; Lotan, Yair

2017-01-01

To evaluate whether anti-inflammatory agents affect outcomes in patients receiving intravesical BCG therapy for high-grade (HG) non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). We reviewed the records of 203 patients in a prospective database of HG NMIBC from 2006 to 2012 at a single institution. Patients who had muscle-invasive disease (n = 32), low-grade pathology (n = 4), underwent early cystectomy within 3 months (n = 25), had <3 months of follow-up (n = 11), or did not receive an induction course of intravesical BCG (n = 32) were excluded. Clinicopathologic data were tabulated including demographics, comorbidities, pathologic stage and grades, intravesical therapy, and concomitant use of aspirin, NSAIDs, COX inhibitors, and statins. Multivariate Cox regression analysis explored predictive factors for recurrence, progression (stage progression or progression to cystectomy), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS). Ninety-nine patients with HG NMIBC who received at least one induction course of intravesical BCG were identified, with median follow-up of 31.4 months. There were 20 (20.2 %) deaths, including 6 (6.1 %) patients with bladder cancer-related mortality. 13 % patients experienced tumor progression and 27 % underwent cystectomy following failure of intravesical therapy. Anti-inflammatory use included statins (65 %), aspirin (63 %), or non-aspirin NSAIDs/COX inhibitors (26 %). Anti-inflammatory use was not significantly predictive of recurrence, progression, or mortality outcomes on Cox regression. CIS stage was associated with higher progression, while age, BMI, and Charlson score were independent predictors of overall mortality. Despite speculation of inhibitory effects on BCG immunomodulation there was no evidence that anti-inflammatory agents impacted oncologic outcomes in patients receiving BCG for HG NMIBC.

Gene network inherent in genomic big data improves the accuracy of prognostic prediction for cancer patients.

PubMed

Kim, Yun Hak; Jeong, Dae Cheon; Pak, Kyoungjune; Goh, Tae Sik; Lee, Chi-Seung; Han, Myoung-Eun; Kim, Ji-Young; Liangwen, Liu; Kim, Chi Dae; Jang, Jeon Yeob; Cha, Wonjae; Oh, Sae-Ock

2017-09-29

Accurate prediction of prognosis is critical for therapeutic decisions regarding cancer patients. Many previously developed prognostic scoring systems have limitations in reflecting recent progress in the field of cancer biology such as microarray, next-generation sequencing, and signaling pathways. To develop a new prognostic scoring system for cancer patients, we used mRNA expression and clinical data in various independent breast cancer cohorts (n=1214) from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). A new prognostic score that reflects gene network inherent in genomic big data was calculated using Network-Regularized high-dimensional Cox-regression (Net-score). We compared its discriminatory power with those of two previously used statistical methods: stepwise variable selection via univariate Cox regression (Uni-score) and Cox regression via Elastic net (Enet-score). The Net scoring system showed better discriminatory power in prediction of disease-specific survival (DSS) than other statistical methods (p=0 in METABRIC training cohort, p=0.000331, 4.58e-06 in two METABRIC validation cohorts) when accuracy was examined by log-rank test. Notably, comparison of C-index and AUC values in receiver operating characteristic analysis at 5 years showed fewer differences between training and validation cohorts with the Net scoring system than other statistical methods, suggesting minimal overfitting. The Net-based scoring system also successfully predicted prognosis in various independent GEO cohorts with high discriminatory power. In conclusion, the Net-based scoring system showed better discriminative power than previous statistical methods in prognostic prediction for breast cancer patients. This new system will mark a new era in prognosis prediction for cancer patients.

Prognostic Impact of Neutrophil/Lymphocyte Ratio, Platelet Count, CRP, and Albumin Levels in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients Treated with FOLFIRI-Bevacizumab.

PubMed

Artaç, Mehmet; Uysal, Mükremin; Karaağaç, Mustafa; Korkmaz, Levent; Er, Zehra; Güler, Tunç; Börüban, Melih Cem; Bozcuk, Hakan

2017-06-01

Metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) is a lethal disease and fluorouracil-leucovorin-irinotecan (FOLFIRI) plus bevacizumab (bev) is a standard approach. Hence, there is a strong need for identifying new prognostic factors to show the efficacy of FOLFIRI-bev. This is a retrospective study including patients (n = 90) with mCRC from two centers in Turkey. Neutrophil/lymphocyte (N/L) ratio, platelet count, albumin, and C-reactive protein (CRP) were recorded before FOLFIRI-bev therapy. The efficacy of these factors on progression-free survival (PFS) was analyzed with Kaplan Meier and Cox regression analysis. And the cutoff value of N/L ratio was analyzed with ROC analysis. The median age was 56 years (range 21-80). Forty-seven percent of patients with N/L ratio >2.5 showed progressive disease versus 43 % in patients with N/L ratio <2.5 (p = 0.025). The median PFS was 8.1 months for the patients with N/L ratio >2.5 versus 13.5 months for the patients with N/L ratio <2.5 (p = 0.025). At univariate Cox regression analysis, high baseline neutrophil count, LDH, N/L ratio, and CRP were all significantly associated with poor prognosis. At multivariate Cox regression analysis, CRP was confirmed to be a better independent prognostic factor. CRP variable was divided into above the upper limit of normal (ULN) and normal value. The median PFSs of the patients with normal and above ULN were 11.3 versus 5.8 months, respectively (p = 0.022). CRP and N/L ratio are potential predictors for advanced mCRC treated with FOLFIRI-bev.

Long-term allopurinol use decreases the risk of prostate cancer in patients with gout: a population-based study.

PubMed

Shih, H-J; Kao, M-C; Tsai, P-S; Fan, Y-C; Huang, C-J

2017-09-01

Clinical observations indicated an increased risk of developing prostate cancer in gout patients. Chronic inflammation is postulated to be one crucial mechanism for prostate carcinogenesis. Allopurinol, a widely used antigout agent, possesses potent anti-inflammation capacity. We elucidated whether allopurinol decreases the risk of prostate cancer in gout patients. We analyzed data retrieved from Taiwan National Health Insurance Database between January 2000 and December 2012. Patients diagnosed with gout during the study period with no history of prostate cancer and who had never used allopurinol were selected. Four allopurinol use cohorts (that is, allopurinol use (>365 days), allopurinol use (181-365 days), allopurinol use (91-180 days) and allopurinol use (31-90 days)) and one cohort without using allopurinol (that is, allopurinol use (No)) were included. The study end point was the diagnosis of new-onset prostate cancer. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression and propensity score-adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate the association between the risk of prostate cancer and allopurinol treatment in gout patients after adjusting for potential confounders. A total of 25 770 gout patients (aged between 40 and 100 years) were included. Multivariable Cox regression analyses revealed that the risk of developing prostate cancer in the allopurinol use (>365 days) cohort was significantly lower than the allopurinol use (No) cohort (adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=0.64, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.45-0.9, P=0.011). After propensity score adjustment, the trend remained the same (adjusted HR=0.66, 95% CI=0.46-0.93, P=0.019). Long-term (more than 1 year) allopurinol use may associate with a decreased risk of prostate cancer in gout patients.

Birth by Caesarean Section and the Risk of Adult Psychosis: A Population-Based Cohort Study

PubMed Central

O’Neill, Sinéad M.; Curran, Eileen A.; Dalman, Christina; Kenny, Louise C.; Kearney, Patricia M.; Clarke, Gerard; Cryan, John F.; Dinan, Timothy G.; Khashan, Ali S.

2016-01-01

Despite the biological plausibility of an association between obstetric mode of delivery and psychosis in later life, studies to date have been inconclusive. We assessed the association between mode of delivery and later onset of psychosis in the offspring. A population-based cohort including data from the Swedish National Registers was used. All singleton live births between 1982 and 1995 were identified (n = 1 345 210) and followed-up to diagnosis at age 16 or later. Mode of delivery was categorized as: unassisted vaginal delivery (VD), assisted VD, elective Caesarean section (CS) (before onset of labor), and emergency CS (after onset of labor). Outcomes included any psychosis; nonaffective psychoses (including schizophrenia only) and affective psychoses (including bipolar disorder only and depression with psychosis only). Cox regression analysis was used reporting partially and fully adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Sibling-matched Cox regression was performed to adjust for familial confounding factors. In the fully adjusted analyses, elective CS was significantly associated with any psychosis (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.03, 1.24). Similar findings were found for nonaffective psychoses (HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.99, 1.29) and affective psychoses (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05, 1.31) (χ2 for heterogeneity P = .69). In the sibling-matched Cox regression, this association disappeared (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.78, 1.37). No association was found between assisted VD or emergency CS and psychosis. This study found that elective CS is associated with an increase in offspring psychosis. However, the association did not persist in the sibling-matched analysis, implying the association is likely due to familial confounding by unmeasured factors such as genetics or environment. PMID:26615187

A comparison between standard methods and structural nested modelling when bias from a healthy worker survivor effect is suspected: an iron-ore mining cohort study.

PubMed

Björ, Ove; Damber, Lena; Jonsson, Håkan; Nilsson, Tohr

2015-07-01

Iron-ore miners are exposed to extremely dusty and physically arduous work environments. The demanding activities of mining select healthier workers with longer work histories (ie, the Healthy Worker Survivor Effect (HWSE)), and could have a reversing effect on the exposure-response association. The objective of this study was to evaluate an iron-ore mining cohort to determine whether the effect of respirable dust was confounded by the presence of an HWSE. When an HWSE exists, standard modelling methods, such as Cox regression analysis, produce biased results. We compared results from g-estimation of accelerated failure-time modelling adjusted for HWSE with corresponding unadjusted Cox regression modelling results. For all-cause mortality when adjusting for the HWSE, cumulative exposure from respirable dust was associated with a 6% decrease of life expectancy if exposed ≥15 years, compared with never being exposed. Respirable dust continued to be associated with mortality after censoring outcomes known to be associated with dust when adjusting for the HWSE. In contrast, results based on Cox regression analysis did not support that an association was present. The adjustment for the HWSE made a difference when estimating the risk of mortality from respirable dust. The results of this study, therefore, support the recommendation that standard methods of analysis should be complemented with structural modelling analysis techniques, such as g-estimation of accelerated failure-time modelling, to adjust for the HWSE. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Sodium Valproate, a Histone Deacetylase Inhibitor, Is Associated With Reduced Stroke Risk After Previous Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack.

PubMed

Brookes, Rebecca L; Crichton, Siobhan; Wolfe, Charles D A; Yi, Qilong; Li, Linxin; Hankey, Graeme J; Rothwell, Peter M; Markus, Hugh S

2018-01-01

A variant in the histone deacetylase 9 ( HDAC9 ) gene is associated with large artery stroke. Therefore, inhibiting HDAC9 might offer a novel secondary preventative treatment for ischemic stroke. The antiepileptic drug sodium valproate (SVA) is a nonspecific inhibitor of HDAC9. We tested whether SVA therapy given after ischemic stroke was associated with reduced recurrent stroke rate. Data were pooled from 3 prospective studies recruiting patients with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack and long-term follow-up: the South London Stroke Register, The Vitamins to Prevent Stroke Study, and the Oxford Vascular Study. Patients receiving SVA were compared with patients who received antiepileptic drugs other than SVA using survival analysis and Cox Regression. A total of 11 949 patients with confirmed ischemic event were included. Recurrent stroke rate was lower in patient taking SVA (17 of 168) than other antiepileptic drugs (105 of 530; log-rank survival analysis P =0.002). On Cox regression, controlling for potential cofounders, SVA remained associated with reduced stroke (hazard ratio=0.44; 95% confidence interval: 0.3-0.7; P =0.002). A similar result was obtained when patients taking SVA were compared with all cases not taking SVA (Cox regression, hazard ratio=0.47; 95% confidence interval: 0.29-0.77; P =0.003). These results suggest that exposure to SVA, an inhibitor of HDAC, may be associated with a lower recurrent stroke risk although we cannot exclude residual confounding in this study design. This supports the hypothesis that HDAC9 is important in the ischemic stroke pathogenesis and that its inhibition, by SVA or a more specific HDAC9 inhibitor, is worthy of evaluation as a treatment to prevent recurrent ischemic stroke. © 2017 The Authors.

Racial differences in the outcome of patients with urothelial carcinoma of the upper urinary tract: an international study.

PubMed

Matsumoto, Kazumasa; Novara, Giacomo; Gupta, Amit; Margulis, Vitaly; Walton, Thomas J; Roscigno, Marco; Ng, Casey; Kikuchi, Eiji; Zigeuner, Richard; Kassouf, Wassim; Fritsche, Hans-Martin; Ficarra, Vincenzo; Martignoni, Guido; Tritschler, Stefan; Rodriguez, Joaquin Carballido; Seitz, Christian; Weizer, Alon; Remzi, Mesut; Raman, Jay D; Bolenz, Christian; Bensalah, Karim; Koppie, Theresa M; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Wood, Christopher G; Montorsi, Francesco; Iwamura, Masatsugu; Shariat, Shahrokh F

2011-10-01

•To assess the impact of differences in ethnicity on clinico-pathological characteristics and outcomes of patients with upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) in a large multi-center series of patients treated with radical nephroureterectomy (RNU). •We retrospectively collected the data of 2163 patients treated with RNU at 20 academic centres in America, Asia, and Europe. •Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models addressed recurrence-free survival (RFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). •In all, 1794 (83%) patients were Caucasian and 369 (17%) were Japanese. All the main clinical and pathological features were significantly different between the two ethnicities. •The median follow-up of the whole cohort was 36 months. At last follow-up, 554 patients (26%) developed disease recurrence and 461 (21%) were dead from UTUC. •The 5-year RFS and CSS estimates were 71.5% and 74.2%, respectively, for Caucasian patients compared with 68.8% and 75.4%, respectively, for Japanese patients. •On univariable Cox regression analyses, ethnicity was not significantly associated with either RFS (P= 0.231) or CSS (P= 0.752). •On multivariable Cox regression analyses that adjusted for the effects of age, gender, surgical type, T stage, grade, tumour architecture, presence of concomitant carcinoma in situ, lymphovascular invasion, tumour necrosis, and lymph node status, ethnicity was not associated with either RFS (hazard ratio [HR] 1.1; P= 0.447) or CSS (HR 1.0; P= 0.908). •There were major differences in the clinico-pathological characteristics of Caucasian and Japanese patients. •However, RFS and CSS probabilities were not affected by ethnicity and race was not an independent predictor of either recurrence or cancer-related death. © 2011 THE AUTHORS; BJU INTERNATIONAL © 2011 BJU INTERNATIONAL.

Hypoalbuminaemia predicts outcome in adult patients with congenital heart disease

PubMed Central

Kempny, Aleksander; Diller, Gerhard-Paul; Alonso-Gonzalez, Rafael; Uebing, Anselm; Rafiq, Isma; Li, Wei; Swan, Lorna; Hooper, James; Donovan, Jackie; Wort, Stephen J; Gatzoulis, Michael A; Dimopoulos, Konstantinos

2015-01-01

Background In patients with acquired heart failure, hypoalbuminaemia is associated with increased risk of death. The prevalence of hypoproteinaemia and hypoalbuminaemia and their relation to outcome in adult patients with congenital heart disease (ACHD) remains, however, unknown. Methods Data on patients with ACHD who underwent blood testing in our centre within the last 14 years were collected. The relation between laboratory, clinical or demographic parameters at baseline and mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Results A total of 2886 patients with ACHD were included. Mean age was 33.3 years (23.6–44.7) and 50.1% patients were men. Median plasma albumin concentration was 41.0 g/L (38.0–44.0), whereas hypoalbuminaemia (<35 g/L) was present in 13.9% of patients. The prevalence of hypoalbuminaemia was significantly higher in patients with great complexity ACHD (18.2%) compared with patients with moderate (11.3%) or simple ACHD lesions (12.1%, p<0.001). During a median follow-up of 5.7 years (3.3–9.6), 327 (11.3%) patients died. On univariable Cox regression analysis, hypoalbuminaemia was a strong predictor of outcome (HR 3.37, 95% CI 2.67 to 4.25, p<0.0001). On multivariable Cox regression, after adjusting for age, sodium and creatinine concentration, liver dysfunction, functional class and disease complexity, hypoalbuminaemia remained a significant predictor of death. Conclusions Hypoalbuminaemia is common in patients with ACHD and is associated with a threefold increased risk of risk of death. Hypoalbuminaemia, therefore, should be included in risk-stratification algorithms as it may assist management decisions and timing of interventions in the growing ACHD population. PMID:25736048

Gene network inherent in genomic big data improves the accuracy of prognostic prediction for cancer patients

PubMed Central

Kim, Yun Hak; Jeong, Dae Cheon; Pak, Kyoungjune; Goh, Tae Sik; Lee, Chi-Seung; Han, Myoung-Eun; Kim, Ji-Young; Liangwen, Liu; Kim, Chi Dae; Jang, Jeon Yeob; Cha, Wonjae; Oh, Sae-Ock

2017-01-01

Accurate prediction of prognosis is critical for therapeutic decisions regarding cancer patients. Many previously developed prognostic scoring systems have limitations in reflecting recent progress in the field of cancer biology such as microarray, next-generation sequencing, and signaling pathways. To develop a new prognostic scoring system for cancer patients, we used mRNA expression and clinical data in various independent breast cancer cohorts (n=1214) from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). A new prognostic score that reflects gene network inherent in genomic big data was calculated using Network-Regularized high-dimensional Cox-regression (Net-score). We compared its discriminatory power with those of two previously used statistical methods: stepwise variable selection via univariate Cox regression (Uni-score) and Cox regression via Elastic net (Enet-score). The Net scoring system showed better discriminatory power in prediction of disease-specific survival (DSS) than other statistical methods (p=0 in METABRIC training cohort, p=0.000331, 4.58e-06 in two METABRIC validation cohorts) when accuracy was examined by log-rank test. Notably, comparison of C-index and AUC values in receiver operating characteristic analysis at 5 years showed fewer differences between training and validation cohorts with the Net scoring system than other statistical methods, suggesting minimal overfitting. The Net-based scoring system also successfully predicted prognosis in various independent GEO cohorts with high discriminatory power. In conclusion, the Net-based scoring system showed better discriminative power than previous statistical methods in prognostic prediction for breast cancer patients. This new system will mark a new era in prognosis prediction for cancer patients. PMID:29100405

Empirical and targeted therapy of candidemia with fluconazole versus echinocandins: a propensity score-derived analysis of a population-based, multicentre prospective cohort.

PubMed

López-Cortés, L E; Almirante, B; Cuenca-Estrella, M; Garnacho-Montero, J; Padilla, B; Puig-Asensio, M; Ruiz-Camps, I; Rodríguez-Baño, J

2016-08-01

We compared the clinical efficacy of fluconazole and echinocandins in the treatment of candidemia in real practice. The CANDIPOP study is a prospective, population-based cohort study on candidemia carried out between May 2010 and April 2011 in 29 Spanish hospitals. Using strict inclusion criteria, we separately compared the impact of empirical and targeted therapy with fluconazole or echinocandins on 30-day mortality. Cox regression, including a propensity score (PS) for receiving echinocandins, stratified analysis on the PS quartiles and PS-based matched analyses, were performed. The empirical and targeted therapy cohorts comprised 316 and 421 cases, respectively; 30-day mortality was 18.7% with fluconazole and 33.9% with echinocandins (p 0.02) in the empirical therapy group and 19.8% with fluconazole and 27.7% with echinocandins (p 0.06) in the targeted therapy group. Multivariate Cox regression analysis including PS showed that empirical therapy with fluconazole was associated with better prognosis (adjusted hazard ratio 0.38; 95% confidence interval 0.17-0.81; p 0.01); no differences were found within each PS quartile or in cases matched according to PS. Targeted therapy with fluconazole did not show a significant association with mortality in the Cox regression analysis (adjusted hazard ratio 0.77; 95% confidence interval 0.41-1.46; p 0.63), in the PS quartiles or in PS-matched cases. The results were similar among patients with severe sepsis and septic shock. Empirical or targeted treatment with fluconazole was not associated with increased 30-day mortality compared to echinocandins among adults with candidemia. Copyright © 2016 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in the expression of prostaglandin family members in bovine corpus luteum during the oestrous cycle and pregnancy.

PubMed

Berisha, Bajram; Schams, Dieter; Rodler, Daniela; Sinowatz, Fred; Pfaffl, Michael W

2018-06-06

The aim of this study was to characterize certain prostaglandin family members in the bovine corpus luteum (CL) during the oestrous cycle and pregnancy. The CL tissue was assigned to the following stages of the oestrous cycle: 1-2, 3-4, 5-7, 8-12, 13-16, >18 days (after regression) and of pregnancy: 1-2, 3-4, 6-7 and >8 months. In these samples, we investigated prostaglandin F2alpha (PTGF), prostaglandin E2 (PTGE) and their receptors (PTGFR, PTGER2, PTGER4), cyclooxygenase 2 (COX-2), PTGF synthase (PTGFS) and PTGE synthase (PTGES). The expression of mRNA was measured by RT-qPCR, hormones by EIA and localization by immunohistochemistry. The mRNA expression of COX-2, PTGFS and PTGES in CL during the early luteal phase was high followed by a continuous and significant downregulation afterwards, as well as during all phases of pregnancy. The concentration of PTGF in CL tissue was high during the early luteal phase, decreased significantly in the mid-luteal phase, and increased again afterwards. In contrast, the concentration of PTGE increased significantly during late luteal phase followed by a decrease during regression. The PTGE level increased again during late pregnancy. Immunohistochemically, the large granulose-luteal cells show strong staining for COX-2 and PTGES during the early luteal stage followed by lower activity afterwards. During pregnancy, most of the luteal cells were only weakly positive or negative. In conclusion, our results indicate that the examined prostaglandin family members are involved in the local mechanisms that regulate luteal function, specifically during CL formation, function and regression and during pregnancy in the cow. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Validation of a two-tier grading system in an unselected, consecutive cohort of serous ovarian cancer patients.

PubMed

Battista, Marco Johannes; Cotarelo, Cristina; Almstedt, Katrin; Heimes, Anne-Sophie; Makris, Georgios-Marios; Weyer, Veronika; Schmidt, Marcus

2016-09-01

New insights into the carcinogenesis of ovarian cancer (OC) lead to the definition of low-grade and high-grade serous OC. In this study, we validated the MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) two-tier grading system and compared it with the traditional three-tier grading system as suggested by the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO). Consecutive patients with serous OC were enrolled. These two grading systems were assessed independently from each other. Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox-regression analyses were performed to validate and compare their prognostic impact. 143 consecutive patients entered the study. According to the Kaplan-Meier estimates, the MDACC grading system (p = 0.001) predicted the progression free survival (PFS) more precisely than the FIGO system (p = 0.025). The MDACC grading system (p = 0.008) but not the FIGO system (p = 0.329) showed a statistically significant difference in terms of disease specific survival (DSS). Multivariable Cox-regression analyses revealed an independent prognostic impact of the MDACC grading system but not of the FIGO system for PFS (HR 1.570; 95 % CI 1.007-2.449; p = 0.047, and HR 0.712; 95 % CI 0.476-1.066; p = 0.099, respectively). Concerning DSS, the two-tier grading system but not the FIGO system showed a prognostic impact in a univariable Cox-regression analysis (HR 2.152; 95 % CI 1.207-3.835; p = 0.009, and HR 1.258; 95 % CI 0.801-1.975; p = 0.319, respectively). We were able to validate the MDACC grading system in serous OC. Moreover, this grading system was stronger associated with survival than the FIGO system.

Derivation of the linear-logistic model and Cox's proportional hazard model from a canonical system description.

PubMed

Voit, E O; Knapp, R G

1997-08-15

The linear-logistic regression model and Cox's proportional hazard model are widely used in epidemiology. Their successful application leaves no doubt that they are accurate reflections of observed disease processes and their associated risks or incidence rates. In spite of their prominence, it is not a priori evident why these models work. This article presents a derivation of the two models from the framework of canonical modeling. It begins with a general description of the dynamics between risk sources and disease development, formulates this description in the canonical representation of an S-system, and shows how the linear-logistic model and Cox's proportional hazard model follow naturally from this representation. The article interprets the model parameters in terms of epidemiological concepts as well as in terms of general systems theory and explains the assumptions and limitations generally accepted in the application of these epidemiological models.

Statistical methods for astronomical data with upper limits. II - Correlation and regression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Isobe, T.; Feigelson, E. D.; Nelson, P. I.

1986-01-01

Statistical methods for calculating correlations and regressions in bivariate censored data where the dependent variable can have upper or lower limits are presented. Cox's regression and the generalization of Kendall's rank correlation coefficient provide significant levels of correlations, and the EM algorithm, under the assumption of normally distributed errors, and its nonparametric analog using the Kaplan-Meier estimator, give estimates for the slope of a regression line. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that survival analysis is reliable in determining correlations between luminosities at different bands. Survival analysis is applied to CO emission in infrared galaxies, X-ray emission in radio galaxies, H-alpha emission in cooling cluster cores, and radio emission in Seyfert galaxies.

Prediction of all-cause death in hemodialysis patients using elevated postdialysis pulse wave velocity.

PubMed

Fu, Xiaohong; Yang, Jihong; Fan, Zhaoxin; Chen, Xianguang; Wu, Jie; Li, Jie; Wu, Hua

2016-02-01

To identify the relationship between predialysis pulse wave velocity (PWV), postdialysis PWV during 1 hemodialysis (HD) session, and deaths in maintenance HD patients. 43 patients were recruited. PWV was measured before and after one HD session and dialysis- related data were recorded. Clinical data such as blood pressure, blood lipids, and blood glucose, were carefully observed and managed in a 5-year follow-up. The association between all-cause death, predialysis PWV, postdialysis PWV, change of PWV (ΔPWV), and other related variables were analyzed. After 5 years, 17 patients (39.5%) died. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that all-cause death of the patients significantly correlated with age, postdialysis PWV, and ΔPWV. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that postdialysis PWV was an independent predictor for all-cause death in these patients (HR: 1.377, 95% CI: 1.146 - 1.656, p = 0.001). Elevated postdialysis PWV significantly correlated with and was an independent predictor for all-cause death in maintenance HD patients.

Statistical power to detect violation of the proportional hazards assumption when using the Cox regression model.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2018-01-01

The use of the Cox proportional hazards regression model is widespread. A key assumption of the model is that of proportional hazards. Analysts frequently test the validity of this assumption using statistical significance testing. However, the statistical power of such assessments is frequently unknown. We used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the statistical power of two different methods for detecting violations of this assumption. When the covariate was binary, we found that a model-based method had greater power than a method based on cumulative sums of martingale residuals. Furthermore, the parametric nature of the distribution of event times had an impact on power when the covariate was binary. Statistical power to detect a strong violation of the proportional hazards assumption was low to moderate even when the number of observed events was high. In many data sets, power to detect a violation of this assumption is likely to be low to modest.

Statistical power to detect violation of the proportional hazards assumption when using the Cox regression model

PubMed Central

Austin, Peter C.

2017-01-01

The use of the Cox proportional hazards regression model is widespread. A key assumption of the model is that of proportional hazards. Analysts frequently test the validity of this assumption using statistical significance testing. However, the statistical power of such assessments is frequently unknown. We used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the statistical power of two different methods for detecting violations of this assumption. When the covariate was binary, we found that a model-based method had greater power than a method based on cumulative sums of martingale residuals. Furthermore, the parametric nature of the distribution of event times had an impact on power when the covariate was binary. Statistical power to detect a strong violation of the proportional hazards assumption was low to moderate even when the number of observed events was high. In many data sets, power to detect a violation of this assumption is likely to be low to modest. PMID:29321694

A citation-based assessment of the performance of U.S. boiling water reactors following extended power up-rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidrich, Brenden J.

Nuclear power plants produce 20 percent of the electricity generated in the U.S. Nuclear generated electricity is increasingly valuable to a utility because it can be produced at a low marginal cost and it does not release any carbon dioxide. It can also be a hedge against uncertain fossil fuel prices. The construction of new nuclear power plants in the U.S. is cautiously moving forward, restrained by high capital costs. Since 1998, nuclear utilities have been increasing the power output of their reactors by implementing extended power up-rates. Power increases of up to 20 percent are allowed under this process. The equivalent of nine large power plants has been added via extended power up-rates. These up-rates require the replacement of large capital equipment and are often performed in concert with other plant life extension activities such as license renewals. This dissertation examines the effect of these extended power up-rates on the safety performance of U.S. boiling water reactors. Licensing event reports are submitted by the utilities to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the federal nuclear regulator, for a wide range of abnormal events. Two methods are used to examine the effect of extended power up-rates on the frequency of abnormal events at the reactors. The Crow/AMSAA model, a univariate technique is used to determine if the implementation of an extended power up-rate affects the rate of abnormal events. The method has a long history in the aerospace industry and in the military. At a 95-percent confidence level, the rate of events requiring the submission of a licensing event report decreases following the implementation of an extended power up-rate. It is hypothesized that the improvement in performance is tied to the equipment replacement and refurbishment that is performed as part of the up-rate process. The reactor performance is also analyzed using the proportional hazards model. This technique allows for the estimation of the effects of multiple independent variables on the event rate. Both the Cox and Weibull formulations were tested. The Cox formulation is more commonly used in survival analysis because of its flexibility. The best Cox model included fixed effects at the multi-reactor site level. The Weibull parametric formulation has the same base hazard rate as the Crow/AMSAA model. This theoretical connection was confirmed through a series of tests that demonstrated both models predicted the same base hazard rates. The Weibull formulation produced a model with most of the same statistically significant variables as the Cox model. The beneficial effect of extended power up-rates was predicted in the proportional hazards models as well as the Crow/AMSAA model. The Weibull model also indicated an effect that can be traced back to a plant’s construction. Performance was also found to improve in plants that had been divested from their original owners. This research developed a consistent evaluation toolkit for nuclear power plant performance using either a univariate method that allows for simple graphical evaluation at its heart or a more complex multivariate method that includes the effects of several independent variables with data that are available from public sources. Utilities or regulators with access to proprietary data may be able to expand upon this research with additional data that is not readily available to an academic researcher. Even without access to special data, the methods developed are valuable tools in evaluating and predicting nuclear power plant reliability performance.

Box–Cox Transformation and Random Regression Models for Fecal egg Count Data

PubMed Central

da Silva, Marcos Vinícius Gualberto Barbosa; Van Tassell, Curtis P.; Sonstegard, Tad S.; Cobuci, Jaime Araujo; Gasbarre, Louis C.

2012-01-01

Accurate genetic evaluation of livestock is based on appropriate modeling of phenotypic measurements. In ruminants, fecal egg count (FEC) is commonly used to measure resistance to nematodes. FEC values are not normally distributed and logarithmic transformations have been used in an effort to achieve normality before analysis. However, the transformed data are often still not normally distributed, especially when data are extremely skewed. A series of repeated FEC measurements may provide information about the population dynamics of a group or individual. A total of 6375 FEC measures were obtained for 410 animals between 1992 and 2003 from the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center Angus herd. Original data were transformed using an extension of the Box–Cox transformation to approach normality and to estimate (co)variance components. We also proposed using random regression models (RRM) for genetic and non-genetic studies of FEC. Phenotypes were analyzed using RRM and restricted maximum likelihood. Within the different orders of Legendre polynomials used, those with more parameters (order 4) adjusted FEC data best. Results indicated that the transformation of FEC data utilizing the Box–Cox transformation family was effective in reducing the skewness and kurtosis, and dramatically increased estimates of heritability, and measurements of FEC obtained in the period between 12 and 26 weeks in a 26-week experimental challenge period are genetically correlated. PMID:22303406

Box-Cox Transformation and Random Regression Models for Fecal egg Count Data.

PubMed

da Silva, Marcos Vinícius Gualberto Barbosa; Van Tassell, Curtis P; Sonstegard, Tad S; Cobuci, Jaime Araujo; Gasbarre, Louis C

2011-01-01

Accurate genetic evaluation of livestock is based on appropriate modeling of phenotypic measurements. In ruminants, fecal egg count (FEC) is commonly used to measure resistance to nematodes. FEC values are not normally distributed and logarithmic transformations have been used in an effort to achieve normality before analysis. However, the transformed data are often still not normally distributed, especially when data are extremely skewed. A series of repeated FEC measurements may provide information about the population dynamics of a group or individual. A total of 6375 FEC measures were obtained for 410 animals between 1992 and 2003 from the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center Angus herd. Original data were transformed using an extension of the Box-Cox transformation to approach normality and to estimate (co)variance components. We also proposed using random regression models (RRM) for genetic and non-genetic studies of FEC. Phenotypes were analyzed using RRM and restricted maximum likelihood. Within the different orders of Legendre polynomials used, those with more parameters (order 4) adjusted FEC data best. Results indicated that the transformation of FEC data utilizing the Box-Cox transformation family was effective in reducing the skewness and kurtosis, and dramatically increased estimates of heritability, and measurements of FEC obtained in the period between 12 and 26 weeks in a 26-week experimental challenge period are genetically correlated.

NCC-AUC: an AUC optimization method to identify multi-biomarker panel for cancer prognosis from genomic and clinical data.

PubMed

Zou, Meng; Liu, Zhaoqi; Zhang, Xiang-Sun; Wang, Yong

2015-10-15

In prognosis and survival studies, an important goal is to identify multi-biomarker panels with predictive power using molecular characteristics or clinical observations. Such analysis is often challenged by censored, small-sample-size, but high-dimensional genomic profiles or clinical data. Therefore, sophisticated models and algorithms are in pressing need. In this study, we propose a novel Area Under Curve (AUC) optimization method for multi-biomarker panel identification named Nearest Centroid Classifier for AUC optimization (NCC-AUC). Our method is motived by the connection between AUC score for classification accuracy evaluation and Harrell's concordance index in survival analysis. This connection allows us to convert the survival time regression problem to a binary classification problem. Then an optimization model is formulated to directly maximize AUC and meanwhile minimize the number of selected features to construct a predictor in the nearest centroid classifier framework. NCC-AUC shows its great performance by validating both in genomic data of breast cancer and clinical data of stage IB Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC). For the genomic data, NCC-AUC outperforms Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Support Vector Machine-based Recursive Feature Elimination (SVM-RFE) in classification accuracy. It tends to select a multi-biomarker panel with low average redundancy and enriched biological meanings. Also NCC-AUC is more significant in separation of low and high risk cohorts than widely used Cox model (Cox proportional-hazards regression model) and L1-Cox model (L1 penalized in Cox model). These performance gains of NCC-AUC are quite robust across 5 subtypes of breast cancer. Further in an independent clinical data, NCC-AUC outperforms SVM and SVM-RFE in predictive accuracy and is consistently better than Cox model and L1-Cox model in grouping patients into high and low risk categories. In summary, NCC-AUC provides a rigorous optimization framework to systematically reveal multi-biomarker panel from genomic and clinical data. It can serve as a useful tool to identify prognostic biomarkers for survival analysis. NCC-AUC is available at http://doc.aporc.org/wiki/NCC-AUC. ywang@amss.ac.cn Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Survival of teeth treated with cast post and cores: A retrospective analysis over an observation period of up to 19.5 years.

PubMed

Raedel, Michael; Fiedler, Cliff; Jacoby, Stephan; Boening, Klaus W

2015-07-01

Scientific data about the long-term survival of teeth treated with cast post and cores are scarce. Retrospective studies often use different target events for their analyses. A comparison is therefore complicated. For associated tooth-, jaw-, and patient-related factors little evidence exists as to their effect on survival. The purpose of this study was to extend the knowledge on the survival of teeth treated with cast post and cores for observation periods of more than 10 years. A decrease or increase in survival times according to the presence or absence of associated parameters needs to be evaluated. A retrospective evaluation was conducted of all cast post and cores inserted in 1 university clinic between January 1992 and June 2011. A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was carried out by using extraction as the target event. The survival curves for different tooth types, the presence or absence of adjacent teeth, and the prosthetic restoration of the respective jaws were compared by using the log-rank test (α=.05). A Cox regression model was calculated for multivariate analyses. A total of 717 cast post and cores for 343 patients were recorded. The mean survival time was 13.5 years. A statistically significant decrease in survival times was found for canines (11.9 years) and premolars (13.4 years) versus molars (14.1 years), no adjacent teeth (10.6 years) versus at least 1 adjacent tooth (13.8 years), and the restoration with removable dental prostheses (12.5 years) versus fixed dental prostheses and single crowns (13.9 years). The largest reduction in survival time was found for teeth being used as an abutment for a double crown-retained removable partial dental prosthesis (telescopic denture) (9.8 years). Tooth type and adjacent tooth status remained as significant variables within the multivariate Cox regression model. Cast post and cores have an acceptable long-term survival time. Because different factors may influence survival, considering these factors in treatment planning may increase the long-term success of these restorations. Copyright © 2015 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regulatory effect of the AMPK-COX-2 signaling pathway in curcumin-induced apoptosis in HT-29 colon cancer cells.

PubMed

Lee, Yun-Kyoung; Park, Song Yi; Kim, Young-Min; Park, Ock Jin

2009-08-01

AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK), a highly conserved protein in eukaryotes, functions as a major metabolic switch to maintain energy homeostasis. It also intrinsically regulates the mammalian cell cycle. Moreover, the AMPK cascade has emerged as an important pathway implicated in cancer control. In this study we investigated the effects of curcumin on apoptosis and the regulatory effect of the AMPK-cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) pathway in curcumin-induced apoptosis. Curcumin has shown promise as a chemopreventive agent because of its in vivo regression of various animal-model colon cancers. This study focused on exploiting curcumin to apply antitumorigenic effects through modulation of the AMPK-COX-2 cascade. Curcumin exhibited a potent apoptotic effect on HT-29 colon cancer cells at concentrations of 50 micromol/L and above. These apoptotic effects were correlated with the decrease in pAkt and COX-2, as well as the increase in p-AMPK. Cell cycle analysis showed that curcumin induced G(1)-phase arrest. Further study with AMPK synthetic inhibitor Compound C has shown that increased concentrations of Compound C would abolish AMPK expression, accompanied by a marked increase in COX-2 as well as pAkt expression in curcumin-treated HT-29 cells. By inhibiting AMPK with Compound C, we found that curcumin-treated colon cancer cells were no longer undergoing apoptosis; rather, they were proliferative. These results indicate that AMPK is crucial in apoptosis induced by curcumin and further that the pAkt-AMPK-COX-2 cascade or AMPK-pAkt-COX-2 pathway is important in cell proliferation and apoptosis in colon cancer cells.

Determination of dietary iron requirements by full expression of iron-containing cytochrome c oxidase in the heart of broilers from 22 to 42 d of age.

PubMed

Liao, Xiudong; Ma, Chunyan; Lu, Lin; Zhang, Liyang; Luo, Xugang

2017-10-01

The present study was carried out to determine dietary Fe requirements for the full expression of Fe-containing enzyme in broilers chicks from 22 to 42 d of age. At 22 d of age, 288 Arbor Acres male chicks were randomly assigned to one of six treatments with six replicates and fed a basal maize-soyabean-meal diet (control, containing 47·0 mg Fe/kg) or the basal diet supplemented with 20, 40, 60, 80 or 100 mg Fe/kg from FeSO4.7H2O for 21 d. Regression analysis was performed to estimate the optimal dietary Fe level using quadratic models. Liver cytochrome c oxidase (Cox), heart Cox and kidney succinate dehydrogenase mRNA levels as well as heart COX activity were affected (P<0·08) by dietary Fe level, and COX mRNA level and activity in heart of broilers increased quadratically (P<0·03) as dietary Fe level increased. The estimates of dietary Fe requirements were 110 and 104 mg/kg for the full expression of Cox mRNA and for its activity in the heart of broilers, respectively. The results from this study indicate that COX mRNA level and activity in the heart are new and sensitive criteria to evaluate the dietary Fe requirements of broilers, and the dietary Fe requirements would be 104-110 mg/kg to support the full expression of COX in the heart of broiler chicks from 22 to 42 d of age, which are higher than the current National Research Council Fe requirement (80 mg/kg) of broiler chicks from 1 to 21 d or 22 to 42 d of age.

Preadmission use of nonaspirin nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and 30-day stroke mortality.

PubMed

Schmidt, Morten; Hováth-Puhó, Erzsébet; Christiansen, Christian Fynbo; Petersen, Karin L; Bøtker, Hans Erik; Sørensen, Henrik Toft

2014-11-25

To examine whether preadmission use of nonaspirin nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) influenced 30-day stroke mortality. We conducted a nationwide population-based cohort study. Using medical databases, we identified all first-time stroke hospitalizations in Denmark between 2004 and 2012 (n = 100,043) and subsequent mortality. We categorized NSAID use as current (prescription redemption within 60 days before hospital admission), former, and nonuse. Current use was further classified as new or long-term use. Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) of death within 30 days, controlling for potential confounding through multivariable adjustment and propensity score matching. The adjusted HR of death for ischemic stroke was 1.19 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.38) for current users of selective cyclooxygenase (COX)-2 inhibitors compared with nonusers, driven by the effect among new users (1.42, 95% CI: 1.14-1.77). Comparing the different COX-2 inhibitors, the HR was driven by new use of older traditional COX-2 inhibitors (1.42, 95% CI: 1.14-1.78) among which it was 1.53 (95% CI: 1.02-2.28) for etodolac and 1.28 (95% CI: 0.98-1.68) for diclofenac. The propensity score-matched analysis supported the association between older COX-2 inhibitors and ischemic stroke mortality. There was no association for former users. Mortality from intracerebral hemorrhage was not associated with use of nonselective NSAIDs or COX-2 inhibitors. Preadmission use of COX-2 inhibitors was associated with increased 30-day mortality after ischemic stroke, but not hemorrhagic stroke. Use of nonselective NSAIDs at time of admission was not associated with mortality from ischemic stroke or intracerebral hemorrhage. © 2014 American Academy of Neurology.

An introduction to g methods.

PubMed

Naimi, Ashley I; Cole, Stephen R; Kennedy, Edward H

2017-04-01

Robins' generalized methods (g methods) provide consistent estimates of contrasts (e.g. differences, ratios) of potential outcomes under a less restrictive set of identification conditions than do standard regression methods (e.g. linear, logistic, Cox regression). Uptake of g methods by epidemiologists has been hampered by limitations in understanding both conceptual and technical details. We present a simple worked example that illustrates basic concepts, while minimizing technical complications. © The Author 2016; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Financial Issues and Relationship Outcomes among Cohabiting Individuals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dew, Jeffrey

2011-01-01

Few studies have examined how financial relationship issues are associated with cohabiting individuals' risk of union dissolution or marriage. Competing-risks Cox regressions using the cohabiting data in the National Survey of Families and Households (N = 483) found that financial disagreements predicted union dissolution, whereas disagreements…

Current approaches to prevent NSAID-induced gastropathy – COX selectivity and beyond

PubMed Central

Becker, Jan C; Domschke, Wolfram; Pohle, Thorsten

2004-01-01

Gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity associated with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is still an important medical and socio-economic problem – despite recent pharmaceutical advances. To prevent NSAID-induced gastropathy, three strategies are followed in clinical routine: (i) coprescription of a gastroprotective drug, (ii) use of selective COX-2 inhibitors, and (iii) eradication of Helicobacter pylori. Proton pump inhibitors are the comedication of choice as they effectively reduce gastrointestinal adverse events of NSAIDs and are safe even in long-term use. Co-medication with vitamin C has only been little studied in the prevention of NSAID-induced gastropathy. Apart from scavenging free radicals it is able to induce haeme-oxgenase 1 in gastric cells, a protective enzyme with antioxidant and vasodilative properties. Final results of the celecoxib outcome study (CLASS study) attenuated the initial enthusiasm about the GI safety of selective COX-2 inhibitors, especially in patients concomitantly taking aspirin for cardiovascular prophylaxis. Helicobacter pylori increases the risk for ulcers particularly in NSAID-naive patients and therefore eradication is recommended prior to long-term NSAID therapy at least in patients at high risk. New classes of COX-inhibitors are currently evaluated in clinical studies with very promising results: NSAIDs combined with a nitric oxide releasing moiety (NO-NSAID) and dual inhibitors of COX and 5-LOX. These drugs offer extended anti-inflammatory potency while sparing gastric mucosa. PMID:15563357

Exploring selectivity requirements for COX-2 versus COX-1 binding of 2-(5-phenyl-pyrazol-1-yl)-5-methanesulfonylpyridines using topological and physico-chemical parameters.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Santanu; Sengupta, Chandana; Roy, Kunal

2005-04-01

Considering the current need for development of selective cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitors, an attempt has been made to explore physico-chemical requirements of 2-(5-phenyl-pyrazol-1-yl)-5-methanesulfonylpyridines for binding with COX-1 and COX-2 enzyme subtypes and also to explore the selectivity requirements. In this study, E-states of different common atoms of the molecules (calculated according to Kier & Hall), first order valence connectivity and physicochemical parameters (hydrophobicity pi, Hammett sigma and molar refractivity MR of different ring substituents) were used as independent variables along with suitable dummy parameters in the stepwise regression method. The best equation describing COX-1 binding affinity [n = 25, Q2 = 0.606, R(a)2 = 0.702, R2 = 0.752, R = 0.867, s = 0.447, F = 15.2 (df 4, 20)] suggests that the COX-1 binding affinity increases in the presence of a halogen substituent at R1 position and a p-alkoxy or p-methylthio substituent at R2 position. Furthermore, a difluoromethyl group is preferred over a trifluoromethyl group at R position for the COX-1 binding. The best equation describing COX-2 binding affinity [n = 32, Q2 = 0.622, R(a)2= 0.692, R2 = 0.732, R = 0.856, s = 0.265, F = 18.4 (df 4, 27)] shows that the COX-2 binding affinity increases with the presence of a halogen substituent at R1 position and increase of size of R2 substituents. However, it decreases in case of simultaneous presence of 3-chloro and 4-methoxy groups on the phenyl nucleus and in the presence of highly lipophilic R2 substituents. The best selectivity relation [n = 25, Q2 = 0.455, R(a)2 = 0.605, R2 = 0.670, R = 0.819, s = 0.423, F = 10.2 (df 4, 20)] suggests that the COX-2 selectivity decreases in the presence of p-alkoxy group and electron-withdrawing para substituents at R2 position. Again, a trifluoro group is conductive for the selectivity instead of a difluoromethyl group at R position. Furthermore, branching may also play significant role in determining the selectivity as evidenced from the connectivity parameter.

Application and validation of Cox regression models in a single-center series of double kidney transplantation.

PubMed

Santori, G; Fontana, I; Bertocchi, M; Gasloli, G; Magoni Rossi, A; Tagliamacco, A; Barocci, S; Nocera, A; Valente, U

2010-05-01

A useful approach to reduce the number of discarded marginal kidneys and to increase the nephron mass is double kidney transplantation (DKT). In this study, we retrospectively evaluated the potential predictors for patient and graft survival in a single-center series of 59 DKT procedures performed between April 21, 1999, and September 21, 2008. The kidney recipients of mean age 63.27 +/- 5.17 years included 16 women (27%) and 43 men (73%). The donors of mean age 69.54 +/- 7.48 years included 32 women (54%) and 27 men (46%). The mean posttransplant dialysis time was 2.37 +/- 3.61 days. The mean hospitalization was 20.12 +/- 13.65 days. Average serum creatinine (SCr) at discharge was 1.5 +/- 0.59 mg/dL. In view of the limited numbers of recipient deaths (n = 4) and graft losses (n = 8) that occurred in our series, the proportional hazards assumption for each Cox regression model with P < .05 was tested by using correlation coefficients between transformed survival times and scaled Schoenfeld residuals, and checked with smoothed plots of Schoenfeld residuals. For patient survival, the variables that reached statistical significance were donor SCr (P = .007), donor creatinine cleararance (P = .023), and recipient age (P = .047). Each significant model passed the Schoenfeld test. By entering these variables into a multivariate Cox model for patient survival, no further significance was observed. In the univariate Cox models performed for graft survival, statistical significance was noted for donor SCr (P = .027), SCr 3 months post-DKT (P = .043), and SCr 6 months post-DKT (P = .017). All significant univariate models for graft survival passed the Schoenfeld test. A final multivariate model retained SCr at 6 months (beta = 1.746, P = .042) and donor SCr (beta = .767, P = .090). In our analysis, SCr at 6 months seemed to emerge from both univariate and multivariate Cox models as a potential predictor of graft survival among DKT. Multicenter studies with larger recipient populations and more graft losses should be performed to confirm our findings. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Attrition in Psychotherapy: A Survival Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roseborough, David John; McLeod, Jeffrey T.; Wright, Florence I.

2016-01-01

Purpose: Attrition is a common problem in psychotherapy and can be defined as clients ending treatment before achieving an optimal response. Method: This longitudinal, archival study utilized data for 3,728 clients, using the Outcome Questionnaire 45.2. A Cox regression proportional hazards (hazard ratios) model was used in order to better…

Severe Pain Predicts Greater Likelihood of Subsequent Suicide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ilgen, Mark A.; Zivin, Kara; Austin, Karen L.; Bohnert, Amy S. B.; Czyz, Ewa K.; Valenstein, Marcia; Kilbourne, Amy M.

2010-01-01

Using data from the 1999 Large Health Survey of Veterans, Veterans Affairs' medical records, and the National Death Index (N = 260,254), the association between self-reported pain severity and suicide among veterans as examined, after accounting for demographic variables and psychiatric diagnoses. A Cox proportional hazards regression demonstrated…

In vitro chemo-sensitivity assay guided chemotherapy is associated with prolonged overall survival in cancer patients.

PubMed

Udelnow, Andrej; Schönfęlder, Manfred; Würl, Peter; Halloul, Zuhir; Meyer, Frank; Lippert, Hans; Mroczkowski, Paweł

2013-06-01

The overall survival (OS) of patients suffering From various tumour entities was correlated with the results of in vitro-chemosensitivity assay (CSA) of the in vivo applied drugs. Tumour specimen (n=611) were dissected in 514 patients and incubated for primary tumour cell culture. The histocytological regression assay was performed 5 days after adding chemotherapeutic substances to the cell cultures. n=329 patients undergoing chemotherapy were included in the in vitro/in vivo associations. OS was assessed and in vitro response groups compared using survival analysis. Furthermore Cox-regression analysis was performed on OS including CSA, age, TNM classification and treatment course. The growth rate of the primary was 73-96% depending on tumour entity. The in-vitro response rate varied with histology and drugs (e.g. 8-18% for methotrexate and 33-83% for epirubicine). OS was significantly prolonged for patients treated with in vitro effective drugs compared to empiric therapy (log-rank-test, p=0.0435). Cox-regression revealed that application of in vitro effective drugs, residual tumour and postoperative radiotherapy determined the death risk independently. When patients were treated with drugs effective in our CSA, OS was significantly prolonged compared to empiric therapy. CSA guided chemotherapy should be compared to empiric treatment by a prospective randomized trial.

A nonparametric method for assessment of interactions in a median regression model for analyzing right censored data.

PubMed

Lee, MinJae; Rahbar, Mohammad H; Talebi, Hooshang

2018-01-01

We propose a nonparametric test for interactions when we are concerned with investigation of the simultaneous effects of two or more factors in a median regression model with right censored survival data. Our approach is developed to detect interaction in special situations, when the covariates have a finite number of levels with a limited number of observations in each level, and it allows varying levels of variance and censorship at different levels of the covariates. Through simulation studies, we compare the power of detecting an interaction between the study group variable and a covariate using our proposed procedure with that of the Cox Proportional Hazard (PH) model and censored quantile regression model. We also assess the impact of censoring rate and type on the standard error of the estimators of parameters. Finally, we illustrate application of our proposed method to real life data from Prospective Observational Multicenter Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) study to test an interaction effect between type of injury and study sites using median time for a trauma patient to receive three units of red blood cells. The results from simulation studies indicate that our procedure performs better than both Cox PH model and censored quantile regression model based on statistical power for detecting the interaction, especially when the number of observations is small. It is also relatively less sensitive to censoring rates or even the presence of conditionally independent censoring that is conditional on the levels of covariates.

Parameter estimation in Cox models with missing failure indicators and the OPPERA study.

PubMed

Brownstein, Naomi C; Cai, Jianwen; Slade, Gary D; Bair, Eric

2015-12-30

In a prospective cohort study, examining all participants for incidence of the condition of interest may be prohibitively expensive. For example, the "gold standard" for diagnosing temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a physical examination by a trained clinician. In large studies, examining all participants in this manner is infeasible. Instead, it is common to use questionnaires to screen for incidence of TMD and perform the "gold standard" examination only on participants who screen positively. Unfortunately, some participants may leave the study before receiving the "gold standard" examination. Within the framework of survival analysis, this results in missing failure indicators. Motivated by the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study, a large cohort study of TMD, we propose a method for parameter estimation in survival models with missing failure indicators. We estimate the probability of being an incident case for those lacking a "gold standard" examination using logistic regression. These estimated probabilities are used to generate multiple imputations of case status for each missing examination that are combined with observed data in appropriate regression models. The variance introduced by the procedure is estimated using multiple imputation. The method can be used to estimate both regression coefficients in Cox proportional hazard models as well as incidence rates using Poisson regression. We simulate data with missing failure indicators and show that our method performs as well as or better than competing methods. Finally, we apply the proposed method to data from the OPPERA study. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Feasibility and safety of extended adjuvant temozolomide beyond six cycles for patients with glioblastoma.

PubMed

Hsieh, S Yp; Chan, D Tm; Kam, M Km; Loong, H Hf; Tsang, W K; Poon, D Mc; Ng, S Cp; Poon, W S

2017-12-01

Temozolomide is the first chemotherapeutic agent proven effective for patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma. The drug is well tolerated for its low toxicity. The current standard practice is concomitant chemoradiotherapy for 6 weeks followed by 6 cycles of adjuvant temozolomide. Some Caucasian studies have suggested that patients might benefit from extended adjuvant cycles of temozolomide (>6 cycles) to lengthen both progression-free survival and overall survival. In the present study, we compared differences in survival and toxicity profile between patients who received conventional 6-cycle temozolomide and those who received more than 6 cycles of temozolomide. Patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma without progressive disease and completed concomitant chemoradiotherapy during a 4-year period were studied. Progression-free survival was compared using Kaplan-Meier survival curves. t Test, U test, and correlation were chosen accordingly to examine the impact of age, extent of resection, MGMT promoter methylation status and adjuvant cycles on progression-free survival. For factors with a P value of <0.05 in univariate analyses, Cox regression hazard model was adopted to determine the strongest factors related to progression-free survival. The median progression-free survival was 17.0 months for patients who received 6 cycles of temozolomide (n=7) and 43.4 months for those who received more than 6 cycles (n=7) [P=0.007, log-rank test]. Two patients in the former group and one in the latter group encountered grade 1 toxicity and recovered following dose adjustment. Cycles of adjuvant temozolomide were correlated with progression-free survival (P=0.016, hazard ratio=0.68). Extended cycles of temozolomide are safe and feasible for Chinese patients with disease responsive to temozolomide.

Inability to access addiction treatment predicts injection initiation among street-involved youth in a Canadian setting.

PubMed

DeBeck, Kora; Kerr, Thomas; Nolan, Seonaid; Dong, Huiru; Montaner, Julio; Wood, Evan

2016-01-06

Preventing injection drug use among vulnerable youth is critical for reducing serious drug-related harms. Addiction treatment is one evidence-based intervention to decrease problematic substance use; however, youth frequently report being unable to access treatment services and the impact of this on drug use trajectories remains largely unexplored. This study examines the relationship between being unable to access addiction treatment and injection initiation among street-involved youth. Data were derived from the At-Risk Youth Study (ARYS), a prospective cohort of street-involved youth aged 14-26 who use illicit drugs, from September 2005 to May 2014. An extended Cox model with time-dependent variables was used to identify factors independently associated with injection initiation. Among 462 participants who were injection naïve at baseline, 97 (21 %) initiated injection drug use over study follow-up and 129 (28 %) reported trying but being unable to access addiction treatment in the previous 6 months at some point during the study period. The most frequently reported reason for being unable to access treatment was being put on a wait list. In a multivariable Cox regression analysis, being unable to access addiction treatment remained independently associated with a more rapid rate of injection initiation (Adjusted Hazard Ratio =2.02; 95 % Confidence Interval: 1.12-3.62), after adjusting for potential confounders. Inability to access addiction treatment was common among our sample and associated with injection initiation. Findings highlight the need for easily accessible, evidence-based addiction treatment for high-risk youth as a means to prevent injection initiation and subsequent serious drug-related harms.

Gastrointestinal toxicity among patients taking selective COX-2 inhibitors or conventional NSAIDs, alone or combined with proton pump inhibitors: a case-control study.

PubMed

Bakhriansyah, Mohammad; Souverein, Patrick C; de Boer, Anthonius; Klungel, Olaf H

2017-10-01

To assess the risk of gastrointestinal perforation, ulcers, or bleeding (PUB) associated with the use of conventional nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) with proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) and selective COX-2 inhibitors, with or without PPIs compared with conventional NSAIDs. A case-control study was performed within conventional NSAIDs and/or selective COX-2 inhibitors users identified from the Dutch PHARMO Record Linkage System in the period 1998-2012. Cases were patients aged ≥18 years with a first hospital admission for PUB. For each case, up to four controls were matched for age and sex at the date a case was hospitalized (index date). Logistic regression analysis was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs). At the index date, 2634 cases and 5074 controls were current users of conventional NSAIDs or selective COX-2 inhibitors. Compared with conventional NSAIDs, selective COX-2 inhibitors with PPIs had the lowest risk of PUB (adjusted OR 0.51, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.35-0.73) followed by selective COX-2 inhibitors (adjusted OR 0.66, 95%CI: 0.48-0.89) and conventional NSAIDs with PPIs (adjusted OR 0.79, 95%CI: 0.68-0.92). Compared with conventional NSAIDs, the risk of PUB was lower for those aged ≥75 years taking conventional NSAIDs with PPIs compared with younger patients (adjusted interaction OR 0.79, 95%CI: 0.64-0.99). However, those aged ≥75 years taking selective COX-2 inhibitors, the risk was higher compared with younger patients (adjusted interaction OR 1.22, 95%CI: 1.01-1.47). Selective COX-2 inhibitors with PPIs, selective COX-2 inhibitors, and conventional NSAIDs with PPIs were associated with lower risks of PUB compared with conventional NSAIDs. These effects were modified by age. © 2017 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

"Selective" switching from non-selective to selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs.

PubMed

Bennett, Kathleen; Teeling, Mary; Feely, John

2003-11-01

Non-steroidal anti inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are thought to account for almost 25% of all reported adverse drug reactions, primarily gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity. Selective cyclo-oxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitors have been shown to preferentially inhibit activity of the COX-2 enzyme, which maintains anti-inflammatory activity but reduces GI toxicity. To determine the degree of switching from non-selective NSAIDs to COX-2 inhibitors and to examine the factors that were associated with switching. The General Medical Services prescription database (1.2 million people) was examined for NSAID prescriptions from December 1999 through November 2001. All those receiving non-selective NSAIDs and those switching to selective COX-2 inhibitors after at least 1 month on a non-selective NSAID were identified (non-switchers and switchers, respectively). Age, sex, dose of non-selective NSAID and co-prescribing of anti-peptic ulcer (anti-PU) drugs were considered between switchers and non-switchers, and odds ratios (OR) calculated using logistic regression. The effect of chronic use (> or =3 months prescription of a non-selective NSAID during the study period) on switching was also evaluated. A total of 81,538 of 480,573 patients (17%) initially prescribed non-selective NSAIDs were switched to COX-2 inhibitors during the study. The elderly (65 years or older) were more likely to be switched to a COX-2 inhibitor [OR=1.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.79, 1.84]. Women were also more likely to be switched to COX-2 inhibitor therapy (OR=1.25, 95% CI 1.23, 1.27). Previous but not subsequent prescribing of anti-PU drugs was also associated with switching. Chronic users showed similar switching patterns. Prescribers are more likely to switch older female patients and those with a past history of peptic ulcers from non-selective NSAIDs to COX-2 inhibitors. This suggests that doctors take risk factors into consideration when prescribing NSAIDs. The relatively low rate of switching may suggest that prescribers still have concerns over the place of COX-2 inhibitors and reserve their use to those patients particularly at risk of NSAID-induced GI toxicity.

Relaxing the rule of ten events per variable in logistic and Cox regression.

PubMed

Vittinghoff, Eric; McCulloch, Charles E

2007-03-15

The rule of thumb that logistic and Cox models should be used with a minimum of 10 outcome events per predictor variable (EPV), based on two simulation studies, may be too conservative. The authors conducted a large simulation study of other influences on confidence interval coverage, type I error, relative bias, and other model performance measures. They found a range of circumstances in which coverage and bias were within acceptable levels despite less than 10 EPV, as well as other factors that were as influential as or more influential than EPV. They conclude that this rule can be relaxed, in particular for sensitivity analyses undertaken to demonstrate adequate control of confounding.

Factors associated with Iowa rural hospitals' decision to convert to critical access hospital status.

PubMed

Li, Pengxiang; Ward, Marcia M; Schneider, John E

2009-01-01

The Balanced Budget Act (BBA) of 1997 allowed some rural hospitals meeting certain requirements to convert to Critical Access Hospitals (CAHs) and changed their Medicare reimbursement from prospective to cost-based. Some subsequent CAH-related laws reduced restrictions and increased payments, and the number of CAHs grew rapidly. To examine factors related to hospitals' decisions to convert and time to CAH conversion. Eighty-nine rural hospitals in Iowa were characterized and observed from 1998 to 2005. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify the determinants of time to CAH conversion. T-test and one-covariate Cox regression indicated that, in 1998, Iowa rural hospitals with more staffed beds, discharges, and acute inpatient days, higher operating margin, lower skilled swing bed days relative to acute days, and located in relatively high density counties were more likely to convert later or not convert before 2006. Multiple Cox regression with baseline covariates indicated that lower number of discharges and average length of stay (ALOS) were significant after controlling all other covariates. Iowa rural hospitals' decisions regarding CAH conversion were influenced by hospital size, financial condition, skilled swing bed days relative to acute days, length of stay, proportion of Medicare acute days, and geographic factors. Although financial concerns are often cited in surveys as the main reason for conversion, lower number of discharges and ALOS are the most prominent factors affecting rural hospitals' decision on when to convert.

Resveratrol promotes regression of renal carcinoma cells via a renin-angiotensin system suppression-dependent mechanism.

PubMed

Li, Jianchang; Qiu, Mingning; Chen, Lieqian; Liu, Lei; Tan, Guobin; Liu, Jianjun

2017-02-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of resveratrol on renal carcinoma cells and explore possible renin-angiotensin system-associated mechanisms. Subsequent to resveratrol treatment, the cell viability, apoptosis rate, cytotoxicity levels, caspase 3/7 activity and the levels of angiotensin II (AngII), AngII type 1 receptor (AT1R), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) were evaluated in renal carcinoma cells. The effects of AngII, AT1R, VEGF and COX-2 on resveratrol-induced cell growth inhibition and apoptosis were also examined. The results indicated that resveratrol treatment may suppress growth, induce apoptosis, and decrease AngII, AT1R, VEGF and COX-2 levels in renal carcinoma ACHN and A498 cells. In addition, resveratrol-induced cell growth suppression and apoptosis were reversed when co-culturing with AT1R or VEGF. Thus, resveratrol may suppress renal carcinoma cell proliferation and induce apoptosis via an AT1R/VEGF pathway.

Papillary type 2 versus clear cell renal cell carcinoma: Survival outcomes.

PubMed

Simone, G; Tuderti, G; Ferriero, M; Papalia, R; Misuraca, L; Minisola, F; Costantini, M; Mastroianni, R; Sentinelli, S; Guaglianone, S; Gallucci, M

2016-11-01

To compare the cancer specific survival (CSS) between p2-RCC and a Propensity Score Matched (PSM) cohort of cc-RCC patients. Fifty-five (4.6%) patients with p2-RCC and 920 cc-RCC patients were identified within a prospectively maintained institutional dataset of 1205 histologically proved RCC patients treated with either RN or PN. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to identify predictors of CSS after surgical treatment. A 1:2 PSM analysis based on independent predictors of oncologic outcomes was employed and CSS was compared between PSM selected cc-RCC patients using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis. Overall, 55 (4.6%) p2-RCC and 920 (76.3%) cc-RCC patients were selected from the database; p2-RCC were significantly larger (p = 0.001), more frequently locally advanced (p < 0.001) and node positive (p < 0.001) and had significantly higher Fuhrman grade (p < 0.001) than cc-RCC. On multivariable Cox regression analysis age (p = 0.025), histologic subtype (p = 0.029), pN stage (p = 0.006), size, pT stage, cM stage, sarcomatoid features and Fuhrman grade (all p < 0.001) were independent predictors of CSS. After applying the PSM, 82 cc-RCC selected cases were comparable to 41 p2-RCC for age (p = 0.81), tumor size (p = 0.39), pT (p = 1.00) and pN (p = 0.62) stages, cM stage (p = 0.71) and Fuhrman grade (p = 1). In this PSM cohort, 5 yr CSS was significantly lower in the p2-RCC (63% vs 72.4%; p = 0.047). At multivariable Cox analysis p2 histology was an independent predictor of CSM (HR 2.46, 95% CI 1.04-5.83; p = 0.041). We confirmed the tendency of p2-RCC to present as locally advanced and metastatic disease more frequently than cc-RCC and demonstrated p2-RCC histology as an independent predictor of worse oncologic outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd, BASO ~ The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights reserved.

Default risk modeling beyond the first-passage approximation: extended Black-Cox model.

PubMed

Katz, Yuri A; Shokhirev, Nikolai V

2010-07-01

We develop a generalization of the Black-Cox structural model of default risk. The extended model captures uncertainty related to firm's ability to avoid default even if company's liabilities momentarily exceeding its assets. Diffusion in a linear potential with the radiation boundary condition is used to mimic a company's default process. The exact solution of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation allows for derivation of analytical expressions for the cumulative probability of default and the relevant hazard rate. Obtained closed formulas fit well the historical data on global corporate defaults and demonstrate the split behavior of credit spreads for bonds of companies in different categories of speculative-grade ratings with varying time to maturity. Introduction of the finite rate of default at the boundary improves valuation of credit risk for short time horizons, which is the key advantage of the proposed model. We also consider the influence of uncertainty in the initial distance to the default barrier on the outcome of the model and demonstrate that this additional source of incomplete information may be responsible for nonzero credit spreads for bonds with very short time to maturity.

Synthesis and reception of prostaglandins in corpora lutea of domestic cat and lynx.

PubMed

Zschockelt, Lina; Amelkina, Olga; Siemieniuch, Marta J; Kowalewski, Mariusz P; Dehnhard, Martin; Jewgenow, Katarina; Braun, Beate C

2016-08-01

Felids show different reproductive strategies related to the luteal phase. Domestic cats exhibit a seasonal polyoestrus and ovulation is followed by formation of corpora lutea (CL). Pregnant and non-pregnant cycles are reflected by diverging plasma progesterone (P4) profiles. Eurasian and Iberian lynxes show a seasonal monooestrus, in which physiologically persistent CL (perCL) support constantly elevated plasma P4 levels. Prostaglandins (PGs) represent key regulators of reproduction, and we aimed to characterise PG synthesis in feline CL to identify their contribution to the luteal lifespan. We assessed mRNA and protein expression of PG synthases (PTGS2/COX2, PTGES, PGFS/AKR1C3) and PG receptors (PTGER2, PTGER4, PTGFR), and intra-luteal levels of PGE2 and PGF2α Therefore, CL of pregnant (pre-implantation, post-implantation, regression stages) and non-pregnant (formation, development/maintenance, early regression, late regression stages) domestic cats, and prooestrous Eurasian (perCL, pre-mating) and metoestrous Iberian (perCL, freshCL, post-mating) lynxes were investigated. Expression of PTGS2/COX2, PTGES and PTGER4 was independent of the luteal stage in the investigated species. High levels of luteotrophic PGE2 in perCL might be associated with persistence of luteal function in lynxes. Signals for PGFS/AKR1C3 expression were weak in mid and late luteal stages of cats but were absent in lynxes, concomitant with low PGF2α levels in these species. Thus, regulation of CL regression by luteal PGF2α seems negligible. In contrast, expression of PTGFR was evident in nearly all investigated CL of cat and lynxes, implying that luteal regression, e.g. at the end of pregnancy, is triggered by extra-luteal PGF2α. © 2016 Society for Reproduction and Fertility.

Bootstrapping Cox’s Regression Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-11-01

crucial points a multivariate martingale central limit theorem. Involved in this is a p x p covariance matrix Z with elements T j2= f {2(s8 ) - s(l)( s ,8o...1980). The statistical analaysis of failure time data. Wiley, New York. Meyer, P.-A. (1971). Square integrable martingales, a survey. Lecture Notes

Adolescent Suicide Attempters: What Predicts Future Suicidal Acts?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Groholt, Berit; Ekeberg, Oivind; Haldorsen, Tor

2006-01-01

Predictors for repetition of suicide attempts were evaluated among 92 adolescent suicide attempters 9 years after an index suicide attempt (90% females). Five were dead, two by suicide. Thirty-one (42%) of 73 had repeated a suicide attempt. In multiple Cox regression analysis, four factors had an independent predictive effect: comorbid disorders,…

The reproductive outcome of female patients with myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1) undergoing PGD is not affected by the size of the expanded CTG repeat tract

PubMed Central

Seneca, Sara; De Rademaeker, Marjan; Sermon, Karen; De Rycke, Martine; De Vos, Michel; Haentjens, Patrick; Devroey, Paul; Liebaers, Ingeborg

2010-01-01

Purpose This study aims to analyze the relationship between trinucleotide repeat length and reproductive outcome in a large cohort of DM1 patients undergoing ICSI and PGD. Methods Prospective cohort study. The effect of trinucleotide repeat length on reproductive outcome per patient was analyzed using bivariate analysis (T-test) and multivariate analysis using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis. Results Between 1995 and 2005, 205 cycles of ICSI and PGD were carried out for DM1 in 78 couples. The number of trinucleotide repeats does not have an influence on reproductive outcome when adjusted for age, BMI, basal FSH values, parity, infertility status and male or female affected. Cox regression analysis indicates that cumulative live birth rate is not influenced by the number of trinucleotide repeats. The only factor with a significant effect is age (p < 0.05). Conclusion There is no evidence of an effect of trinucleotide repeat length on reproductive outcome in patients undergoing ICSI and PGD. PMID:20221684

Serum Uric Acid Levels and Risk of Incident Hypertriglyceridemia: A Longitudinal Population-based Epidemiological Study.

PubMed

Zheng, Rongjiong; Ren, Ping; Chen, Qingmei; Yang, Tianmeng; Chen, Changxi; Mao, Yushan

2017-09-01

Hypertriglyceridemia is one of lipid metabolism abnormalities; however, it is still debatable whether serum uric acid is a cause or a consequence of hypertriglyceridemia. We performed the study to investigate the longitudinal association between serum uric acid levels and hypertriglyceridemia. The study included 4190 subjects without hypertriglyceridemia. The subjects had annual health examinations for 8 years to assess incident hyperglyceridemia, and the subjects were divided into groups based on the serum uric acid quartile. Cox regression models were used to analyze the risk factors of development hypertriglyceridemia. During follow-up, 1461 (34.9%) subjects developed hypertriglyceridemia over 8 years of follow-up. The cumulative incidence of hypertriglyceridemia was 28.2%, 29.1%, 36.9%, and 45.6% in quartile 1,2,3 and 4, respectively ( P for trend <0.001). Cox regression analyses indicated that serum uric acid levels were independently and positively associated with the risk of incident hypertriglyceridemia. Hypertriglyceridemia has become a serious public health problem. This longitudinal study demonstrates that high serum uric acid levels increase the risk of hypertriglyceridemia. © 2017 by the Association of Clinical Scientists, Inc.

Triglyceride and glucose (TyG) index as a predictor of incident hypertension: a 9-year longitudinal population-based study.

PubMed

Zheng, Rongjiong; Mao, Yushan

2017-09-13

Hypertension and the triglyceride and glucose index both have been associated with insulin resistance; however, the longitudinal association remains unclear. This study was designed to investigate the longitudinal association between the triglyceride and glucose index and incident hypertension among the Chinese population. We studied 4686 subjects (3177 males and 1509 females) and followed up for 9 years. The subjects were divided into four groups based on the triglyceride and glucose index. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to analyse the risk factors of hypertension. After 9 years of follow-up, 2047 subjects developed hypertension. The overall 9-year cumulative incidence of hypertension was 43.7%, ranging from 28.5% in quartile 1 to 36.9% in quartile 2, 49.2% in quartile 3 and 59.8% in quartile 4 (p for trend < 0.001). Cox regression analyses indicated that higher triglyceride and glucose index was associated with an increased risk of subsequent incident hypertension. The triglyceride and glucose index can predict the incident hypertension among the Chinese population.

Time to detection of circulating microbubbles as a risk factor for symptoms of altitude decompression sickness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, K. V.; Calkins, Dick S.; Waligora, James M.; Gilbert, John H., III; Powell, Michael R.

1992-01-01

This study investigated the association between time at onset of circulating microbubbles (CMB) and symptoms of altitude decompression sickness (DCS), using Cox proportional hazard regression models. The study population consisted of 125 individuals who participated in direct ascent, simulated extravehicular activities profiles. Using individual CMB status as a time-dependent variable, we found that the hazard for symptoms increased significantly (at the end of 180 min at altitude) in the presence of CMB (Hazard Ratio = 29.59; 95 percent confidence interval (95 percent CI) = 7.66-114.27), compared to no CMB. Further examination was conducted on the subgroup of individuals who developed microbubbles during the test (n = 49), by using Cox regression. Individuals with late onset of CMB (greater than 60 min at altitude) showed a significantly reduced risk of symptoms (hazard ratio = 0.92; 95 percent CI = 0.89-0.95), compared to those with early onset (equal to or less than 60 min), while controlling for other risk factors. We conclude that time to detection of circulating microbubbles is an independent determinant of symptoms of DCS.

Early Lapses in a Cessation Attempt: Lapse Contexts, Cessation Success, and Predictors of Early Lapse

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction: The great majority of smokers relapse when they make quit attempts. Therefore, understanding the process of relapse may guide the development of more effective smoking cessation or relapse prevention treatments. The goal of this research is to extend our understanding of the context of initial lapses that occur within 8 weeks of quitting by using more comprehensive assessments of context, a contemporary sample, and sophisticated analytic techniques. Methods: Participants from a randomized controlled smoking cessation trial completed baseline assessments of demographics and tobacco dependence, a daily smoking calendar to determine latency to lapse and relapse (7 consecutive days of smoking), and an assessment of initial lapse context (affect, location, activity, interpersonal, smoke exposure, and cigarette availability). Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to analyze the 6 early lapse (within the first 8 weeks; N = 551) context dimensions; logistic regression and Cox regression were used to relate context to cessation outcomes. Results: LCA revealed 5 distinct initial lapse context classes (talking, with friends, angry; social; alone; with spouse, angry; and with smoking spouse) that were differentially related to cessation outcome. The easy availability of cigarettes characterized almost 75% of lapses, but being with friends, drinking, and not being at home were associated with a lower likelihood of progression to relapse. Conclusions: Early lapsing is highly related to ultimate relapse, and lapsing in frequently experienced contexts seemed most strongly linked with progression to full relapse. PMID:23780705

Behavioural disorders in 6-year-old children and pyrethroid insecticide exposure: the PELAGIE mother-child cohort.

PubMed

Viel, Jean-François; Rouget, Florence; Warembourg, Charline; Monfort, Christine; Limon, Gwendolina; Cordier, Sylvaine; Chevrier, Cécile

2017-03-01

The potential impact of environmental exposure to pyrethroid insecticides on child neurodevelopment has only just started to receive attention despite their widespread use. We investigated the associations between prenatal and childhood exposure to pyrethroid insecticides and behavioural skills in 6-year-olds. The PELAGIE cohort enrolled 3421 pregnant women from Brittany, France between 2002 and 2006. 428 mothers were randomly selected for the study when their children turned 6, and 287 (67%) agreed to participate. Children's behaviour was assessed using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Three subscales (prosocial behaviour, internalising disorders and externalising disorders) were considered. Five pyrethroid metabolites were measured in maternal and child urine samples collected between 6 and 19 gestational weeks and at 6 years of age, respectively. Logistic regression and reverse-scale Cox regression models were used to estimate the associations between SDQ scores and urinary pyrethroid metabolite concentrations, adjusting for organophosphate metabolite concentrations and potential confounders. Increased prenatal cis -3-(2,2-dichlorovinyl)-2,2-dimethylcyclopropane carboxylic acid (DCCA) concentrations were associated with internalising difficulties (Cox p value=0.05). For childhood 3-phenoxybenzoic acid (PBA) concentrations, a positive association was observed with externalising difficulties (Cox p value=0.04) and high ORs were found for abnormal or borderline social behaviour (OR 2.93, 95% CI 1.27 to 6.78, and OR 1.91, 95% CI 0.80 to 4.57, for the intermediate and highest metabolite categories, respectively). High childhood trans -DCCA concentrations were associated with reduced externalising disorders (Cox p value=0.03). The present study suggests that exposure to certain pyrethroids, at environmental levels, may negatively affect neurobehavioral development by 6 years of age. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Effect of a community intervention programme promoting social interactions on functional disability prevention for older adults: propensity score matching and instrumental variable analyses, JAGES Taketoyo study.

PubMed

Hikichi, Hiroyuki; Kondo, Naoki; Kondo, Katsunori; Aida, Jun; Takeda, Tokunori; Kawachi, Ichiro

2015-09-01

The efficacy of promoting social interactions to improve the health of older adults is not fully established due to residual confounding and selection bias. The government of Taketoyo town, Aichi Prefecture, Japan, developed a resident-centred community intervention programme called 'community salons', providing opportunities for social interactions among local older residents. To evaluate the impact of the programme, we conducted questionnaire surveys for all older residents of Taketoyo. We carried out a baseline survey in July 2006 (prior to the introduction of the programme) and assessed the onset of functional disability during March 2012. We analysed the data of 2421 older people. In addition to the standard Cox proportional hazard regression, we conducted Cox regression with propensity score matching (PSM) and an instrumental variable (IV) analysis, using the number of community salons within a radius of 350 m from the participant's home as an instrument. In the 5 years after the first salon was launched, the salon participants showed a 6.3% lower incidence of functional disability compared with non-participants. Even adjusting for sex, age, equivalent income, educational attainment, higher level activities of daily living and depression, the Cox adjusted HR for becoming disabled was 0.49 (95% CI 0.33 to 0.72). Similar results were observed using PSM (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.83) and IV-Cox analysis (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.74). A community health promotion programme focused on increasing social interactions among older adults may be effective in preventing the onset of disability. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

External validation of a Cox prognostic model: principles and methods

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A prognostic model should not enter clinical practice unless it has been demonstrated that it performs a useful role. External validation denotes evaluation of model performance in a sample independent of that used to develop the model. Unlike for logistic regression models, external validation of Cox models is sparsely treated in the literature. Successful validation of a model means achieving satisfactory discrimination and calibration (prediction accuracy) in the validation sample. Validating Cox models is not straightforward because event probabilities are estimated relative to an unspecified baseline function. Methods We describe statistical approaches to external validation of a published Cox model according to the level of published information, specifically (1) the prognostic index only, (2) the prognostic index together with Kaplan-Meier curves for risk groups, and (3) the first two plus the baseline survival curve (the estimated survival function at the mean prognostic index across the sample). The most challenging task, requiring level 3 information, is assessing calibration, for which we suggest a method of approximating the baseline survival function. Results We apply the methods to two comparable datasets in primary breast cancer, treating one as derivation and the other as validation sample. Results are presented for discrimination and calibration. We demonstrate plots of survival probabilities that can assist model evaluation. Conclusions Our validation methods are applicable to a wide range of prognostic studies and provide researchers with a toolkit for external validation of a published Cox model. PMID:23496923

Cystic Fibrosis Associated with Worse Survival After Liver Transplantation.

PubMed

Black, Sylvester M; Woodley, Frederick W; Tumin, Dmitry; Mumtaz, Khalid; Whitson, Bryan A; Tobias, Joseph D; Hayes, Don

2016-04-01

Survival in cystic fibrosis patients after liver transplantation and liver-lung transplantation is not well studied. To discern survival rates after liver transplantation and liver-lung transplantation in patients with and without cystic fibrosis. The United Network for Organ Sharing database was queried from 1987 to 2013. Univariate Cox proportional hazards, multivariate Cox models, and propensity score matching were performed. Liver transplant and liver-lung transplant were performed in 212 and 53 patients with cystic fibrosis, respectively. Univariate Cox proportional hazards regression identified lower survival in cystic fibrosis after liver transplant compared to a reference non-cystic fibrosis liver transplant cohort (HR 1.248; 95 % CI 1.012, 1.541; p = 0.039). Supplementary analysis found graft survival was similar across the 3 recipient categories (log-rank test: χ(2) 2.68; p = 0.262). Multivariate Cox models identified increased mortality hazard among cystic fibrosis patients undergoing liver transplantation (HR 2.439; 95 % CI 1.709, 3.482; p < 0.001) and liver-lung transplantation (HR 2.753; 95 % CI 1.560, 4.861; p < 0.001). Propensity score matching of cystic fibrosis patients undergoing liver transplantation to non-cystic fibrosis controls identified a greater mortality hazard in the cystic fibrosis cohort using a Cox proportional hazards model stratified on matched pairs (HR 3.167; 95 % CI 1.265, 7.929, p = 0.014). Liver transplantation in cystic fibrosis is associated with poorer long-term patient survival compared to non-cystic fibrosis patients, although the difference is not due to graft survival.

The antagonistic effect between STAT1 and Survivin and its clinical significance in gastric cancer.

PubMed

Deng, Hao; Zhen, Hongyan; Fu, Zhengqi; Huang, Xuan; Zhou, Hongyan; Liu, Lijiang

2012-01-01

In previous studies, we observed that STAT1 and Survivin correlated negatively with gastric cancer tissues, and that the functions of the IFN-γ-STAT1 pathway and Survivin in gastric cancer are the same as those reported for other types of cancer. In this study, the SGC7901 gastric cancer cell line and 83 gastric cancer specimens were used to confirm the relationship between STAT1 and Survivin, as well as the clinical significance of this relationship in gastric cancer. IFN-γ and STAT1 and Survivin antisense oligonucleotides (ASONs) were used to knock down the expression in SGC7901 cells. The protein expression of STAT1 and Survivin was tested by immunocytochemical and image analysis methods. A gastric cancer tissue microarray was prepared and tested by immunohistochemical methods. Data were analyzed by the Spearman's rank correlation analysis, the χ(2) test and Cox's multivariate regression analysis. Upon knockdown of IFN-γ, STAT1 and Survivin expression by ASON in the SGC7901 cell line, an antagonistic effect was observed between STAT1 and Survivin. In gastric cancer tissues, STAT1 showed a negative correlation with depth of invasion (p<0.05) in gastric cancer tissues exhibiting a negative Survivin protein expression. Furthermore, in tissues exhibiting a negative STAT1 protein expression, Survivin correlated negatively with N stage (p<0.05). Pathological and molecular markers were used to conduct Cox's multivariate regression analysis, and depth of invasion and N stage were found to be prognostic factors (p<0.05). On the other hand, in tissues exhibiting a negative Survivin protein expression, Cox's multivariate regression analysis revealed that the differentiation type and STAT1 protein expression were prognostic factors (p<0.05). There is an antagonistic effect between STAT1 and Survivin in gastric cancer, and this antagonistic effect is of clinical significance in gastric cancer.

Sodium Valproate, a Histone Deacetylase Inhibitor, Is Associated With Reduced Stroke Risk After Previous Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack

PubMed Central

Brookes, Rebecca L.; Crichton, Siobhan; Wolfe, Charles D.A.; Yi, Qilong; Li, Linxin; Hankey, Graeme J.; Rothwell, Peter M.

2018-01-01

Background and Purpose— A variant in the histone deacetylase 9 (HDAC9) gene is associated with large artery stroke. Therefore, inhibiting HDAC9 might offer a novel secondary preventative treatment for ischemic stroke. The antiepileptic drug sodium valproate (SVA) is a nonspecific inhibitor of HDAC9. We tested whether SVA therapy given after ischemic stroke was associated with reduced recurrent stroke rate. Methods— Data were pooled from 3 prospective studies recruiting patients with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack and long-term follow-up: the South London Stroke Register, The Vitamins to Prevent Stroke Study, and the Oxford Vascular Study. Patients receiving SVA were compared with patients who received antiepileptic drugs other than SVA using survival analysis and Cox Regression. Results— A total of 11 949 patients with confirmed ischemic event were included. Recurrent stroke rate was lower in patient taking SVA (17 of 168) than other antiepileptic drugs (105 of 530; log-rank survival analysis P=0.002). On Cox regression, controlling for potential cofounders, SVA remained associated with reduced stroke (hazard ratio=0.44; 95% confidence interval: 0.3–0.7; P=0.002). A similar result was obtained when patients taking SVA were compared with all cases not taking SVA (Cox regression, hazard ratio=0.47; 95% confidence interval: 0.29–0.77; P=0.003). Conclusions— These results suggest that exposure to SVA, an inhibitor of HDAC, may be associated with a lower recurrent stroke risk although we cannot exclude residual confounding in this study design. This supports the hypothesis that HDAC9 is important in the ischemic stroke pathogenesis and that its inhibition, by SVA or a more specific HDAC9 inhibitor, is worthy of evaluation as a treatment to prevent recurrent ischemic stroke. PMID:29247141

Birth by Caesarean Section and the Risk of Adult Psychosis: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

O'Neill, Sinéad M; Curran, Eileen A; Dalman, Christina; Kenny, Louise C; Kearney, Patricia M; Clarke, Gerard; Cryan, John F; Dinan, Timothy G; Khashan, Ali S

2016-05-01

Despite the biological plausibility of an association between obstetric mode of delivery and psychosis in later life, studies to date have been inconclusive. We assessed the association between mode of delivery and later onset of psychosis in the offspring. A population-based cohort including data from the Swedish National Registers was used. All singleton live births between 1982 and 1995 were identified (n= 1,345,210) and followed-up to diagnosis at age 16 or later. Mode of delivery was categorized as: unassisted vaginal delivery (VD), assisted VD, elective Caesarean section (CS) (before onset of labor), and emergency CS (after onset of labor). Outcomes included any psychosis; nonaffective psychoses (including schizophrenia only) and affective psychoses (including bipolar disorder only and depression with psychosis only). Cox regression analysis was used reporting partially and fully adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Sibling-matched Cox regression was performed to adjust for familial confounding factors. In the fully adjusted analyses, elective CS was significantly associated with any psychosis (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.03, 1.24). Similar findings were found for nonaffective psychoses (HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.99, 1.29) and affective psychoses (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05, 1.31) (χ(2)for heterogeneityP= .69). In the sibling-matched Cox regression, this association disappeared (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.78, 1.37). No association was found between assisted VD or emergency CS and psychosis. This study found that elective CS is associated with an increase in offspring psychosis. However, the association did not persist in the sibling-matched analysis, implying the association is likely due to familial confounding by unmeasured factors such as genetics or environment. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Association of Protein Translation and Extracellular Matrix Gene Sets with Breast Cancer Metastasis: Findings Uncovered on Analysis of Multiple Publicly Available Datasets Using Individual Patient Data Approach.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Nilotpal; Sapru, Shantanu

2015-01-01

Microarray analysis has revolutionized the role of genomic prognostication in breast cancer. However, most studies are single series studies, and suffer from methodological problems. We sought to use a meta-analytic approach in combining multiple publicly available datasets, while correcting for batch effects, to reach a more robust oncogenomic analysis. The aim of the present study was to find gene sets associated with distant metastasis free survival (DMFS) in systemically untreated, node-negative breast cancer patients, from publicly available genomic microarray datasets. Four microarray series (having 742 patients) were selected after a systematic search and combined. Cox regression for each gene was done for the combined dataset (univariate, as well as multivariate - adjusted for expression of Cell cycle related genes) and for the 4 major molecular subtypes. The centre and microarray batch effects were adjusted by including them as random effects variables. The Cox regression coefficients for each analysis were then ranked and subjected to a Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA). Gene sets representing protein translation were independently negatively associated with metastasis in the Luminal A and Luminal B subtypes, but positively associated with metastasis in Basal tumors. Proteinaceous extracellular matrix (ECM) gene set expression was positively associated with metastasis, after adjustment for expression of cell cycle related genes on the combined dataset. Finally, the positive association of the proliferation-related genes with metastases was confirmed. To the best of our knowledge, the results depicting mixed prognostic significance of protein translation in breast cancer subtypes are being reported for the first time. We attribute this to our study combining multiple series and performing a more robust meta-analytic Cox regression modeling on the combined dataset, thus discovering 'hidden' associations. This methodology seems to yield new and interesting results and may be used as a tool to guide new research.

Association of Protein Translation and Extracellular Matrix Gene Sets with Breast Cancer Metastasis: Findings Uncovered on Analysis of Multiple Publicly Available Datasets Using Individual Patient Data Approach

PubMed Central

Chowdhury, Nilotpal; Sapru, Shantanu

2015-01-01

Introduction Microarray analysis has revolutionized the role of genomic prognostication in breast cancer. However, most studies are single series studies, and suffer from methodological problems. We sought to use a meta-analytic approach in combining multiple publicly available datasets, while correcting for batch effects, to reach a more robust oncogenomic analysis. Aim The aim of the present study was to find gene sets associated with distant metastasis free survival (DMFS) in systemically untreated, node-negative breast cancer patients, from publicly available genomic microarray datasets. Methods Four microarray series (having 742 patients) were selected after a systematic search and combined. Cox regression for each gene was done for the combined dataset (univariate, as well as multivariate – adjusted for expression of Cell cycle related genes) and for the 4 major molecular subtypes. The centre and microarray batch effects were adjusted by including them as random effects variables. The Cox regression coefficients for each analysis were then ranked and subjected to a Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA). Results Gene sets representing protein translation were independently negatively associated with metastasis in the Luminal A and Luminal B subtypes, but positively associated with metastasis in Basal tumors. Proteinaceous extracellular matrix (ECM) gene set expression was positively associated with metastasis, after adjustment for expression of cell cycle related genes on the combined dataset. Finally, the positive association of the proliferation-related genes with metastases was confirmed. Conclusion To the best of our knowledge, the results depicting mixed prognostic significance of protein translation in breast cancer subtypes are being reported for the first time. We attribute this to our study combining multiple series and performing a more robust meta-analytic Cox regression modeling on the combined dataset, thus discovering 'hidden' associations. This methodology seems to yield new and interesting results and may be used as a tool to guide new research. PMID:26080057

Applying Additive Hazards Models for Analyzing Survival in Patients with Colorectal Cancer in Fars Province, Southern Iran

PubMed

Madadizadeh, Farzan; Ghanbarnejad, Amin; Ghavami, Vahid; Zare Bandamiri, Mohammad; Mohammadianpanah, Mohammad

2017-04-01

Introduction: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a commonly fatal cancer that ranks as third worldwide and third and the fifth in Iranian women and men, respectively. There are several methods for analyzing time to event data. Additive hazards regression models take priority over the popular Cox proportional hazards model if the absolute hazard (risk) change instead of hazard ratio is of primary concern, or a proportionality assumption is not made. Methods: This study used data gathered from medical records of 561 colorectal cancer patients who were admitted to Namazi Hospital, Shiraz, Iran, during 2005 to 2010 and followed until December 2015. The nonparametric Aalen’s additive hazards model, semiparametric Lin and Ying’s additive hazards model and Cox proportional hazards model were applied for data analysis. The proportionality assumption for the Cox model was evaluated with a test based on the Schoenfeld residuals and for test goodness of fit in additive models, Cox-Snell residual plots were used. Analyses were performed with SAS 9.2 and R3.2 software. Results: The median follow-up time was 49 months. The five-year survival rate and the mean survival time after cancer diagnosis were 59.6% and 68.1±1.4 months, respectively. Multivariate analyses using Lin and Ying’s additive model and the Cox proportional model indicated that the age of diagnosis, site of tumor, stage, and proportion of positive lymph nodes, lymphovascular invasion and type of treatment were factors affecting survival of the CRC patients. Conclusion: Additive models are suitable alternatives to the Cox proportionality model if there is interest in evaluation of absolute hazard change, or no proportionality assumption is made. Creative Commons Attribution License

Utilization of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and antisecretory agents: a managed care claims analysis.

PubMed

Ofman, Joshua J; Badamgarav, Enkhe; Henning, James M; Knight, Kevin; Laine, Loren

2004-06-15

To describe patients initiating nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) therapy with regard to gastrointestinal and cardiac risks and patterns of antisecretory agent use, and to explore the relation between therapy type and subsequent outcomes. We studied patients aged 18 years or older who had continuous coverage from 1998 to 2001 and who had initiated treatment with cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) selective inhibitors or nonselective NSAIDs. Patients were categorized with respect to gastrointestinal and cardiac risk profiles. Proton pump inhibitor use within 15 days of initiating NSAID therapy was considered prophylactic. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate associations between treatment and hospitalization events, cardiac events, and health care costs. We identified 106,564 eligible NSAID initiators: 65.2% used COX-2 inhibitors and 34.8% used traditional NSAIDs. Users of COX-2 inhibitors were more likely to be at higher risk of gastrointestinal bleeding and cardiac events than were NSAID users. Proton pump inhibitor prophylaxis was most common among users of COX-2 inhibitors, but was only 11% in patients at high risk of gastrointestinal bleeding. There were no differences among treatment groups in terms of gastrointestinal or cardiac events. Initiation of COX-2 inhibitor therapy was associated with greater total health care costs. Although we found that COX-2 inhibitors were used more frequently than were traditional NSAIDs in certain groups of patients with varying cardiac or gastrointestinal risk, we did not find that their use resulted in reductions in clinical events, cotherapy with proton pump inhibitors, or costs, suggesting that a better understanding of the relation between NSAID treatment strategies and outcomes in patients with differing risk characteristics is needed.

WebDISCO: a web service for distributed cox model learning without patient-level data sharing.

PubMed

Lu, Chia-Lun; Wang, Shuang; Ji, Zhanglong; Wu, Yuan; Xiong, Li; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Ohno-Machado, Lucila

2015-11-01

The Cox proportional hazards model is a widely used method for analyzing survival data. To achieve sufficient statistical power in a survival analysis, it usually requires a large amount of data. Data sharing across institutions could be a potential workaround for providing this added power. The authors develop a web service for distributed Cox model learning (WebDISCO), which focuses on the proof-of-concept and algorithm development for federated survival analysis. The sensitive patient-level data can be processed locally and only the less-sensitive intermediate statistics are exchanged to build a global Cox model. Mathematical derivation shows that the proposed distributed algorithm is identical to the centralized Cox model. The authors evaluated the proposed framework at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD), Emory, and Duke. The experimental results show that both distributed and centralized models result in near-identical model coefficients with differences in the range [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text]. The results confirm the mathematical derivation and show that the implementation of the distributed model can achieve the same results as the centralized implementation. The proposed method serves as a proof of concept, in which a publicly available dataset was used to evaluate the performance. The authors do not intend to suggest that this method can resolve policy and engineering issues related to the federated use of institutional data, but they should serve as evidence of the technical feasibility of the proposed approach.Conclusions WebDISCO (Web-based Distributed Cox Regression Model; https://webdisco.ucsd-dbmi.org:8443/cox/) provides a proof-of-concept web service that implements a distributed algorithm to conduct distributed survival analysis without sharing patient level data. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Evolution of structure and superconductivity in Ba(Ni 1 -xCox)2As2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eckberg, Chris; Wang, Limin; Hodovanets, Halyna; Kim, Hyunsoo; Campbell, Daniel J.; Zavalij, Peter; Piccoli, Philip; Paglione, Johnpierre

2018-06-01

The effects of Co substitution on Ba (Ni1-xCox) 2As2 (0 ≤x ≤0.251 ) single crystals grown out of Pb flux are investigated via transport, magnetic, and thermodynamic measurements. BaNi2As2 exhibits a first-order tetragonal to triclinic structural phase transition at Ts=137 K upon cooling, and enters a superconducting phase below Tc=0.7 K. The structural phase transition is sensitive to cobalt content and is suppressed completely by x ≥0.133 . The superconducting critical temperature, Tc, increases continuously with x , reaching a maximum of Tc=2.3 K at x =0.083 and then decreases monotonically until superconductivity is no longer observable well into the tetragonal phase. In contrast to similar BaNi2As2 substitutional studies, which show an abrupt change in Tc at the triclinic-tetragonal boundary that extends far into the tetragonal phase, Ba (Ni1-xCox) 2As2 exhibits a domelike phase diagram centered around the zero-temperature tetragonal-triclinic boundary. Together with an anomalously large heat capacity jump Δ Ce/γ T ˜2.2 near optimal doping, the smooth evolution of Tc in the Ba (Ni1-xCox) 2As2 system suggests a mechanism for pairing enhancement other than phonon softening.

Regression of experimentally induced endometriosis with a new selective cyclooxygenase-2 enzyme inhibitor.

PubMed

Kilico, Ismail; Kokcu, Arif; Kefeli, Mehmet; Kandemir, Bedri

2014-01-01

Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) levels increase in women with endometriosis. COX-2, via increasing prostaglandin E2, contributes to an increase in vascular endothelial growth factor. In this way, COX-2 may contribute to the progression and continuity of endometriosis. We investigated the effect of dexketoprofen trometamol, a new selective COX-2 enzyme inhibitor, on experimentally induced endometriotic cysts. Experimental endometriotic cysts were created in 60 adult female Wistar albino rats. The rats were randomized to 2 equal groups, a control (group Con) and a dexketoprofen (group Dex) group. Six weeks later, cyst volumes were measured as in vivo (volume 1). Following volume 1 measurement, for 4 weeks group Con received 0.1 ml distilled water; group Dex received 0.375 mg dexketoprofen trometamol/0.1 ml distilled water, intramuscularly, twice a day. At the end of administration, the cyst volumes were remeasured (volume 2), and the cysts totally excised and weighed. Glandular (GT) and stromal tissues (ST) and natural killer (NK) cell contents in the cyst wall were scored. NK cell content and volume 1 were not different between the 2 groups. Volume 2, cyst weight, and GT and ST contents in group Dex were significantly lower than those in group Con. Dexketoprofen trometamol significantly reduced the development of experimentally induced endometriotic cysts both macroscopically and microscopically.

Rutin inhibits B[a]PDE-induced cyclooxygenase-2 expression by targeting EGFR kinase activity.

PubMed

Choi, Seunghwan; Lim, Tae-Gyu; Hwang, Mun Kyung; Kim, Yoon-A; Kim, Jiyoung; Kang, Nam Joo; Jang, Tae Su; Park, Jun-Seong; Yeom, Myeong Hun; Lee, Ki Won

2013-11-15

Rutin is a well-known flavonoid that exists in various natural sources. Accumulative studies have represented the biological effects of rutin, such as anti-oxidative and anti-inflammatory effects. However, the underlying mechanisms of rutin and its direct targets are not understood. We investigated whether rutin reduced B[a]PDE-induced-COX-2 expression. The transactivation of AP-1 and NF-κB were inhibited by rutin. Rutin also attenuated B[a]PDE-induced Raf/MEK/ERK and Akt activation, but had no effect on the phosphorylation of EGFR. An in vitro kinase assay revealed rutin suppressed EGFR kinase activity. We also confirmed direct binding between rutin and EGFR, and found that the binding was regressed by ATP. The EGFR inhibitor also inhibited the B[a]PDE-induced MEK/ERK and Akt signaling pathways and subsequently, suppressed COX-2 expression and promoter activity, in addition to suppressing the transactivation of AP-1 and NF-κB. In EGFR(-/-)mouse embryonic fibroblast cells, B[a]PDE-induced COX-2 expression was also diminished. Collectively, rutin inhibits B[a]PDE-induced COX-2 expression by suppressing the Raf/MEK/ERK and Akt signaling pathways. EGFR appeared to be the direct target of rutin. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Depression and incident dementia. An 8-year population-based prospective study.

PubMed

Luppa, Melanie; Luck, Tobias; Ritschel, Franziska; Angermeyer, Matthias C; Villringer, Arno; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G

2013-01-01

The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of depression (categorical diagnosis; major depression, MD) and depressive symptoms (dimensional diagnosis and symptom patterns) on incident dementia in the German general population. Within the Leipzig Longitudinal Study of the Aged (LEILA 75+), a representative sample of 1,265 individuals aged 75 years and older were interviewed every 1.5 years over 8 years (mean observation time 4.3 years; mean number of visits 4.2). Cox proportional hazards and binary logistic regressions were used to estimate the effect of baseline depression and depressive symptoms on incident dementia. The incidence of dementia was 48 per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI) 45-51). Depressive symptoms (Hazard ratio HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05), and in particular mood-related symptoms (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03-1.14), showed a significant impact on the incidence of dementia only in univariate analysis, but not after adjustment for cognitive and functional impairment. MD showed only a significant impact on incidence of dementia in Cox proportional hazards regression, but not in binary logistic regression models. The present study using different diagnostic measures of depression on future dementia found no clear significant associations of depression and incident dementia. Further in-depth investigation would help to understand the nature of depression in the context of incident dementia.

Impact of Pacemaker Lead Characteristics on Pacemaker Related Infection and Heart Perforation: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Lin, Yu-Sheng; Chen, Tien-Hsing; Hung, Sheng-Ping; Chen, Dong Yi; Mao, Chun-Tai; Tsai, Ming-Lung; Chang, Shih-Tai; Wang, Chun-Chieh; Wen, Ming-Shien; Chen, Mien-Cheng

2015-01-01

Several risk factors for pacemaker (PM) related complications have been reported. However, no study has investigated the impact of lead characteristics on pacemaker-related complications. Patients who received a new pacemaker implant from January 1997 to December 2011 were selected from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Database. This population was grouped according to the pacemaker lead characteristics in terms of fixation and insulation. The impact of the characteristics of leads on early heart perforation was analyzed by multivariable logistic regression analysis, while the impact of the lead characteristics on early and late infection and late heart perforation over a three-year period were analyzed using Cox regression. This study included 36,104 patients with a mean age of 73.4±12.5 years. In terms of both early and late heart perforations, there were no significant differences between groups across the different types of fixation and insulations. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, the pacemaker-related infection rate was significantly lower in the active fixation only group compared to either the both fixation (OR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.07-0.80; P = 0.020) or the passive fixation group (OR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.08-0.83; P = 0.023). There was no difference in heart perforation between active and passive fixation leads. Active fixation leads were associated with reduced risk of pacemaker-related infection.

Robust best linear estimator for Cox regression with instrumental variables in whole cohort and surrogates with additive measurement error in calibration sample

PubMed Central

Wang, Ching-Yun; Song, Xiao

2017-01-01

SUMMARY Biomedical researchers are often interested in estimating the effect of an environmental exposure in relation to a chronic disease endpoint. However, the exposure variable of interest may be measured with errors. In a subset of the whole cohort, a surrogate variable is available for the true unobserved exposure variable. The surrogate variable satisfies an additive measurement error model, but it may not have repeated measurements. The subset in which the surrogate variables are available is called a calibration sample. In addition to the surrogate variables that are available among the subjects in the calibration sample, we consider the situation when there is an instrumental variable available for all study subjects. An instrumental variable is correlated with the unobserved true exposure variable, and hence can be useful in the estimation of the regression coefficients. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric method for Cox regression using the observed data from the whole cohort. The nonparametric estimator is the best linear combination of a nonparametric correction estimator from the calibration sample and the difference of the naive estimators from the calibration sample and the whole cohort. The asymptotic distribution is derived, and the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator is examined via intensive simulation studies. The methods are applied to the Nutritional Biomarkers Study of the Women’s Health Initiative. PMID:27546625

Serum Uric Acid Is Associated with Poor Outcome in Black Africans in the Acute Phase of Stroke

PubMed Central

Ayeah, Chia Mark; Ba, H.; Mbahe, Salomon

2017-01-01

Background Prognostic significance of serum uric acid (SUA) in acute stroke still remains controversial. Objectives To determine the prevalence of hyperuricemia and its association with outcome of stroke patients in the Douala General Hospital (DGH). Methods This was a hospital based prospective cohort study which included acute stroke patients with baseline SUA levels and 3-month poststroke follow-up data. Associations between high SUA levels and stroke outcomes were analyzed using multiple logistic regression and survival analysis (Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier). Results A total of 701 acute stroke patients were included and the prevalence of hyperuricemia was 46.6% with a mean SUA level of 68.625 ± 24 mg/l. Elevated SUA after stroke was associated with death (OR = 2.067; 95% CI: 1.449–2.950; p < 0.001) but did not predict this issue. However, an independent association between increasing SUA concentration and mortality was noted in a Cox proportional hazards regression model (adjusted HR = 1.740; 95% CI: 1.305–2.320; p < 0.001). Furthermore, hyperuricemia was an independent predictor of poor functional outcome within 3 months after stroke (OR = 2.482; 95% CI: 1.399–4.404; p = 0.002). Conclusion The prevalence of hyperuricemia in black African stroke patients is quite high and still remains a predictor of poor outcome. PMID:29082062

Quality Reporting of Multivariable Regression Models in Observational Studies: Review of a Representative Sample of Articles Published in Biomedical Journals.

PubMed

Real, Jordi; Forné, Carles; Roso-Llorach, Albert; Martínez-Sánchez, Jose M

2016-05-01

Controlling for confounders is a crucial step in analytical observational studies, and multivariable models are widely used as statistical adjustment techniques. However, the validation of the assumptions of the multivariable regression models (MRMs) should be made clear in scientific reporting. The objective of this study is to review the quality of statistical reporting of the most commonly used MRMs (logistic, linear, and Cox regression) that were applied in analytical observational studies published between 2003 and 2014 by journals indexed in MEDLINE.Review of a representative sample of articles indexed in MEDLINE (n = 428) with observational design and use of MRMs (logistic, linear, and Cox regression). We assessed the quality of reporting about: model assumptions and goodness-of-fit, interactions, sensitivity analysis, crude and adjusted effect estimate, and specification of more than 1 adjusted model.The tests of underlying assumptions or goodness-of-fit of the MRMs used were described in 26.2% (95% CI: 22.0-30.3) of the articles and 18.5% (95% CI: 14.8-22.1) reported the interaction analysis. Reporting of all items assessed was higher in articles published in journals with a higher impact factor.A low percentage of articles indexed in MEDLINE that used multivariable techniques provided information demonstrating rigorous application of the model selected as an adjustment method. Given the importance of these methods to the final results and conclusions of observational studies, greater rigor is required in reporting the use of MRMs in the scientific literature.

Modeling the safety impacts of driving hours and rest breaks on truck drivers considering time-dependent covariates.

PubMed

Chen, Chen; Xie, Yuanchang

2014-12-01

Driving hours and rest breaks are closely related to driver fatigue, which is a major contributor to truck crashes. This study investigates the effects of driving hours and rest breaks on commercial truck driver safety. A discrete-time logistic regression model is used to evaluate the crash odds ratios of driving hours and rest breaks. Driving time is divided into 11 one hour intervals. These intervals and rest breaks are modeled as dummy variables. In addition, a Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-dependent covariates is used to assess the transient effects of rest breaks, which consists of a fixed effect and a variable effect. Data collected from two national truckload carriers in 2009 and 2010 are used. The discrete-time logistic regression result indicates that only the crash odds ratio of the 11th driving hour is statistically significant. Taking one, two, and three rest breaks can reduce drivers' crash odds by 68%, 83%, and 85%, respectively, compared to drivers who did not take any rest breaks. The Cox regression result shows clear transient effects for rest breaks. It also suggests that drivers may need some time to adjust themselves to normal driving tasks after a rest break. Overall, the third rest break's safety benefit is very limited based on the results of both models. The findings of this research can help policy makers better understand the impact of driving time and rest breaks and develop more effective rules to improve commercial truck safety. Copyright © 2014 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Are low wages risk factors for hypertension?

PubMed Central

Du, Juan

2012-01-01

Objective: Socio-economic status (SES) is strongly correlated with hypertension. But SES has several components, including income and correlations in cross-sectional data need not imply SES is a risk factor. This study investigates whether wages—the largest category within income—are risk factors. Methods: We analysed longitudinal, nationally representative US data from four waves (1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005) of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The overall sample was restricted to employed persons age 25–65 years, n = 17 295. Separate subsamples were constructed of persons within two age groups (25–44 and 45–65 years) and genders. Hypertension incidence was self-reported based on physician diagnosis. Our study was prospective since data from three base years (1999, 2001, 2003) were used to predict newly diagnosed hypertension for three subsequent years (2001, 2003, 2005). In separate analyses, data from the first base year were used to predict time-to-reporting hypertension. Logistic regressions with random effects and Cox proportional hazards regressions were run. Results: Negative and strongly statistically significant correlations between wages and hypertension were found both in logistic and Cox regressions, especially for subsamples containing the younger age group (25–44 years) and women. Correlations were stronger when three health variables—obesity, subjective measures of health and number of co-morbidities—were excluded from regressions. Doubling the wage was associated with 25–30% lower chances of hypertension for persons aged 25–44 years. Conclusions: The strongest evidence for low wages being risk factors for hypertension among working people were for women and persons aged 25–44 years. PMID:22262559

Are low wages risk factors for hypertension?

PubMed

Leigh, J Paul; Du, Juan

2012-12-01

Socio-economic status (SES) is strongly correlated with hypertension. But SES has several components, including income and correlations in cross-sectional data need not imply SES is a risk factor. This study investigates whether wages-the largest category within income-are risk factors. We analysed longitudinal, nationally representative US data from four waves (1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005) of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The overall sample was restricted to employed persons age 25-65 years, n = 17 295. Separate subsamples were constructed of persons within two age groups (25-44 and 45-65 years) and genders. Hypertension incidence was self-reported based on physician diagnosis. Our study was prospective since data from three base years (1999, 2001, 2003) were used to predict newly diagnosed hypertension for three subsequent years (2001, 2003, 2005). In separate analyses, data from the first base year were used to predict time-to-reporting hypertension. Logistic regressions with random effects and Cox proportional hazards regressions were run. Negative and strongly statistically significant correlations between wages and hypertension were found both in logistic and Cox regressions, especially for subsamples containing the younger age group (25-44 years) and women. Correlations were stronger when three health variables-obesity, subjective measures of health and number of co-morbidities-were excluded from regressions. Doubling the wage was associated with 25-30% lower chances of hypertension for persons aged 25-44 years. The strongest evidence for low wages being risk factors for hypertension among working people were for women and persons aged 25-44 years.

Nonparametric Inference of Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process Data via the Kernel Method

PubMed Central

Zhang, Tingting; Kou, S. C.

2010-01-01

Doubly stochastic Poisson processes, also known as the Cox processes, frequently occur in various scientific fields. In this article, motivated primarily by analyzing Cox process data in biophysics, we propose a nonparametric kernel-based inference method. We conduct a detailed study, including an asymptotic analysis, of the proposed method, and provide guidelines for its practical use, introducing a fast and stable regression method for bandwidth selection. We apply our method to real photon arrival data from recent single-molecule biophysical experiments, investigating proteins' conformational dynamics. Our result shows that conformational fluctuation is widely present in protein systems, and that the fluctuation covers a broad range of time scales, highlighting the dynamic and complex nature of proteins' structure. PMID:21258615

Nonparametric Inference of Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process Data via the Kernel Method.

PubMed

Zhang, Tingting; Kou, S C

2010-01-01

Doubly stochastic Poisson processes, also known as the Cox processes, frequently occur in various scientific fields. In this article, motivated primarily by analyzing Cox process data in biophysics, we propose a nonparametric kernel-based inference method. We conduct a detailed study, including an asymptotic analysis, of the proposed method, and provide guidelines for its practical use, introducing a fast and stable regression method for bandwidth selection. We apply our method to real photon arrival data from recent single-molecule biophysical experiments, investigating proteins' conformational dynamics. Our result shows that conformational fluctuation is widely present in protein systems, and that the fluctuation covers a broad range of time scales, highlighting the dynamic and complex nature of proteins' structure.

Predictors of survival among hemodialysis patients: effect of perceived family support.

PubMed

Christensen, A J; Wiebe, J S; Smith, T W; Turner, C W

1994-11-01

The authors examined the role of perceived family support and symptoms of depression as predictors of survival in a sample of 78 in-center hemodialysis patients. Cox regression analysis revealed significant effects for family support (p < .005), blood urea nitrogen (p < .01), and age (p < .005). The effect for depression was not significant. The Cox model indicated that a 1-point increase on the family support measure was associated with a 13% reduction in the hazard rate (i.e., mortality). Estimated 5-year mortality rates among low family support patients were approximately 3 times higher than estimated mortality for high support patients. Differences in patient adherence to the dietary and medication regimens failed to explain the significant effect of family support.

Econometric models of road use, accidents, and road investment decisions. Volume 2 : an econometric model of car ownership, road use, accidents, and their severity (Essay 3)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-11-01

Using a fairly large cross-section/time-series data base, covering all provinces of Norway and all months between January 1973 and December 1994, we estimate non-linear (Box-Cox) regression equations explaining aggregate car ownership, road use, seat...

Improving Your Data Transformations: Applying the Box-Cox Transformation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osborne, Jason W.

2010-01-01

Many of us in the social sciences deal with data that do not conform to assumptions of normality and/or homoscedasticity/homogeneity of variance. Some research has shown that parametric tests (e.g., multiple regression, ANOVA) can be robust to modest violations of these assumptions. Yet the reality is that almost all analyses (even nonparametric…

The Transfer Velocity Project: A Comprehensive Look at the Transfer Function

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayward, Craig

2011-01-01

The 1999-2000 Transfer Velocity Project (TVP) cohort of 147,207 community college students is used to develop both a college-level endogenous model, appropriate for applied research and guidance for campus action, and a student-level model. Survival analysis (Cox regression) is employed to evaluate the relative contribution of 53 student-level…

Faster Remission of Chronic Depression with Combined Psychotherapy and Medication than with Each Therapy Alone

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manber, Rachel; Kraemer, Helena C.; Arnow, Bruce A.; Trivedi, Madhukar H.; Rush, A. John; Thase, Michael E.; Rothbaum, Barbara O.; Klein, Daniel N.; Kocsis, James H.; Gelenberg, Alan J.; Keller, Martin E.

2008-01-01

The main aim of the present novel reanalysis of archival data was to compare the time to remission during 12 weeks of treatment of chronic depression following antidepressant medication (n = 218), psychotherapy (n = 216), and their combination (n = 222). Cox regression survival analyses revealed that the combination of medication and psychotherapy…

A novel atrial volume reduction technique to enhance the Cox maze procedure: initial results.

PubMed

Marui, Akira; Nishina, Takeshi; Tambara, Keiichi; Saji, Yoshiaki; Shimamoto, Takeshi; Nishioka, Masahiko; Ikeda, Tadashi; Komeda, Masashi

2006-11-01

Large left atrial diameter is reported to be a predictor for recurrent atrial fibrillation after the Cox maze procedure, and left atrial diameter by itself influences the chance of sinus rhythm recovery, as well as maintenance of sinus rhythm. However, additional cut-and-sew procedures to decrease left atrial diameter extend operative time and can cause bleeding. Thus we developed a no-bleeding, faster, and therefore less invasive left atrial volume reduction technique to enhance the Cox maze procedure. The modified Cox maze III procedure with cryoablation or the left atrial maze procedure in association with mitral valve surgery was performed in 80 patients with atrial fibrillation and enlarged left atria (> or =60 mm). Among them, 44 patients had the concomitant volume reduction technique (VR group); continuous horizontal mattress sutures for left atrial plication were placed on the left atrial wall along the pulmonary vein isolation line. Cryoablation was applied to the suture line so that the plicated left atrium is anatomically and electrically isolated. Another 36 patients did not have the volume reduction technique (control group). The VR group had preoperative left atrial diameters similar to those of the control group (67.1 +/- 7.8 vs 64.5 +/- 6.7 mm) and a longer preoperative duration of atrial fibrillation (14.1 +/- 5.4 vs 9.5 +/- 5.1 years, P < .05) but had smaller postoperative left atrial diameters (47.6 +/- 6.3 vs 62.1 +/- 7.9 mm, P < .01). There were no differences in mean crossclamp/bypass time and chest tube drainage for 12 hours between the groups. Twelve months after surgical intervention, the sinus rhythm recovery rate of the VR group was better than that of the control group (90% vs 69%, P < .05). Even in patients with long-standing atrial fibrillation and an enlarged left atrium, maze procedures concomitant with the novel left atrial volume reduction technique improved the sinus rhythm recovery rate without increasing complications. Although further study with a larger number of patients and a longer follow-up period is needed, this safe and thus far potent technique that catheter-based ablation cannot copy might extend indication of the Cox maze procedure for patients with tough atrial fibrillation.

Dual oxidase 1: A predictive tool for the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

PubMed

Chen, Shengsen; Ling, Qingxia; Yu, Kangkang; Huang, Chong; Li, Ning; Zheng, Jianming; Bao, Suxia; Cheng, Qi; Zhu, Mengqi; Chen, Mingquan

2016-06-01

Dual oxidase 1 (DUOX1), which is the main source of reactive oxygen species (ROS) production in the airway, can be silenced in human lung cancer and hepatocellular carcinomas. However, the prognostic value of DUOX1 expression in hepatocellular carcinoma patients is still unclear. We investigated the prognostic value of DUOX1 expression in liver cancer patients. DUOX1 mRNA expression was determined in tumor tissues and non-tumor tissues by real‑time PCR. For evaluation of the prognostic value of DUOX1 expression, Kaplan-Meier method and Cox's proportional hazards model (univariate analysis and multivariate analysis) were employed. A simple risk score was devised by using significant variables obtained from the Cox's regression analysis to further predict the HCC patient prognosis. We observed a reduced DUOX1 mRNA level in the cancer tissues in comparison to the non‑cancer tissues. More importantly, Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with high DUOX1 expression had longer disease-free survival and overall survival compared with those with low expression of DUOX1. Cox's regression analysis indicated that DUOX1 expression, age, and intrahepatic metastasis may be significant prognostic factors for disease-free survival and overall survival. Finally, we found that patients with total scores of >2 and >1 were more likely to relapse and succumb to the disease than patients whose total scores were ≤2 and ≤1. In conclusion, DUOX1 expression in liver tumors is a potential prognostic tool for patients. The risk scoring system is useful for predicting the survival of liver cancer patients after tumor resection.

Polymorphism in COX-2 modifies the inverse association between Helicobacter pylori seropositivity and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma risk in Taiwan: a case control study

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Overexpression of Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) was observed in many types of cancers, including esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). One functional SNP, COX-2 -1195G/A, has been reported to mediate susceptibility of ESCC in Chinese populations. In our previous study, the presence of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) was found to play a protective role in development of ESCC. The interaction of COX-2 and H. pylori in gastric cancer was well investigated. However, literature on their interaction in ESCC risk is scarce. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association and interaction between COX-2 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), H. pylori infection and the risk of developing ESCC. Methods One hundred and eighty patients with ESCC and 194 controls were enrolled in this study. Personal data regarding related risk factors, including alcohol consumption, smoking habits and betel quid chewing, were collected via questionnaire. Genotypes of the COX-2 -1195 polymorphism were determined by PCR-based restriction fragment length polymorphism. H. pylori seropositivity was defined by immunochromatographic screening test. Data was analyzed by chi-squared tests and polytomous logistics regression. Results In analysis adjusting for the covariates and confounders, H. pylori seropositivity was found to be inversely association with the ESCC development (adjusted OR: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.3 – 0.9). COX-2 -1195 AA homozygous was associated with an increased risk of contracting ESCC in comparison with the non-AA group, especially among patients with H. pylori seronegative (adjusted OR ratio: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.2 – 7.3). The effect was strengthened among patients with lower third ESCC (adjusted OR ratio: 6.9, 95% CI 2.1 – 22.5). Besides, H. pylori seropositivity conveyed a notably inverse effect among patients with COX-2 AA polymorphism (AOR ratio: 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1 – 0.9), and the effect was observed to be enhanced for the lower third ESCC patients (AOR ratio: 0.09, 95% CI: 0.02 – 0.47, p for multiplicative interaction 0.008) Conclusion H. pylori seropositivity is inversely associated with the risk of ESCC in Taiwan, and COX-2 -1195 polymorphism plays a role in modifying the influence between H. pylori and ESCC, especially in lower third esophagus. PMID:19463183

Polymorphism in COX-2 modifies the inverse association between Helicobacter pylori seropositivity and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma risk in Taiwan: a case control study.

PubMed

Hu, Huang-Ming; Kuo, Chao-Hung; Lee, Chien-Hung; Wu, I-Chen; Lee, Ka-Wo; Lee, Jang-Ming; Goan, Yih-Gang; Chou, Shah-Hwa; Kao, Ein-Long; Wu, Ming-Tsang; Wu, Deng-Chyang

2009-05-23

Overexpression of Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) was observed in many types of cancers, including esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). One functional SNP, COX-2 -1195G/A, has been reported to mediate susceptibility of ESCC in Chinese populations. In our previous study, the presence of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) was found to play a protective role in development of ESCC. The interaction of COX-2 and H. pylori in gastric cancer was well investigated. However, literature on their interaction in ESCC risk is scarce. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association and interaction between COX-2 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), H. pylori infection and the risk of developing ESCC. One hundred and eighty patients with ESCC and 194 controls were enrolled in this study. Personal data regarding related risk factors, including alcohol consumption, smoking habits and betel quid chewing, were collected via questionnaire. Genotypes of the COX-2 -1195 polymorphism were determined by PCR-based restriction fragment length polymorphism. H. pylori seropositivity was defined by immunochromatographic screening test. Data was analyzed by chi-squared tests and polytomous logistics regression. In analysis adjusting for the covariates and confounders, H. pylori seropositivity was found to be inversely association with the ESCC development (adjusted OR: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.3 - 0.9). COX-2 -1195 AA homozygous was associated with an increased risk of contracting ESCC in comparison with the non-AA group, especially among patients with H. pylori seronegative (adjusted OR ratio: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.2 - 7.3). The effect was strengthened among patients with lower third ESCC (adjusted OR ratio: 6.9, 95% CI 2.1 - 22.5). Besides, H. pylori seropositivity conveyed a notably inverse effect among patients with COX-2 AA polymorphism (AOR ratio: 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1 - 0.9), and the effect was observed to be enhanced for the lower third ESCC patients (AOR ratio: 0.09, 95% CI: 0.02 - 0.47, p for multiplicative interaction 0.008) H. pylori seropositivity is inversely associated with the risk of ESCC in Taiwan, and COX-2 -1195 polymorphism plays a role in modifying the influence between H. pylori and ESCC, especially in lower third esophagus.

A method for extending stage-discharge relationships using a hydrodynamic model and quantifying the associated uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Quanxi; Dutta, Dushmanta; Karim, Fazlul; Petheram, Cuan

2018-01-01

Streamflow discharge is a fundamental dataset required to effectively manage water and land resources. However, developing robust stage - discharge relationships called rating curves, from which streamflow discharge is derived, is time consuming and costly, particularly in remote areas and especially at high stage levels. As a result stage - discharge relationships are often heavily extrapolated. Hydrodynamic (HD) models are physically based models used to simulate the flow of water along river channels and over adjacent floodplains. In this paper we demonstrate a method by which a HD model can be used to generate a 'synthetic' stage - discharge relationship at high stages. The method uses a both-side Box-Cox transformation to calibrate the synthetic rating curve such that the regression residuals are as close to the normal distribution as possible. By doing this both-side transformation, the statistical uncertainty in the synthetically derived stage - discharge relationship can be calculated. This enables people trying to make decisions to determine whether the uncertainty in the synthetically generated rating curve at high stage levels is acceptable for their decision. The proposed method is demonstrated in two streamflow gauging stations in north Queensland, Australia.

External Pressure, Motivation, and Treatment Outcome among Pregnant Substance-Using Women

PubMed Central

Ondersma, Steven J.; Winhusen, Theresa; Lewis, Daniel F.

2009-01-01

The weight of evidence suggests that legal pressure to enter treatment facilitates retention. However, the extent to which such mandates (a) influence actual levels of substance use, or (b) also facilitate retention among pregnant women, is unclear. Associations between external pressure—defined as self-reported pressure to attend treatment under threat of incarceration, loss of child custody, and/or loss of subsidized housing—and the key outcomes of retention and substance use were therefore examined in a sample of 200 pregnant women receiving community-based substance abuse treatment. The role of external pressure was examined in a series of Cox and GEE regressions, which suggested that external pressure as measured at baseline was associated with decreased risk of dropout (Hazard Ratio = .47, p = .001) and fewer drug-positive urine tests throughout treatment and 12-week follow-up (OR = 0.48, p = .03). These differences did not appear to be the result of baseline differences between coerced and non-coerced participants in education, legal history, presence or absence of a substance use disorder, employment, or motivation. The present findings extend the larger literature on external pressure by demonstrating effects on drug use as well as on retention, and among pregnant women. PMID:19926408

Event time analysis of longitudinal neuroimage data.

PubMed

Sabuncu, Mert R; Bernal-Rusiel, Jorge L; Reuter, Martin; Greve, Douglas N; Fischl, Bruce

2014-08-15

This paper presents a method for the statistical analysis of the associations between longitudinal neuroimaging measurements, e.g., of cortical thickness, and the timing of a clinical event of interest, e.g., disease onset. The proposed approach consists of two steps, the first of which employs a linear mixed effects (LME) model to capture temporal variation in serial imaging data. The second step utilizes the extended Cox regression model to examine the relationship between time-dependent imaging measurements and the timing of the event of interest. We demonstrate the proposed method both for the univariate analysis of image-derived biomarkers, e.g., the volume of a structure of interest, and the exploratory mass-univariate analysis of measurements contained in maps, such as cortical thickness and gray matter density. The mass-univariate method employs a recently developed spatial extension of the LME model. We applied our method to analyze structural measurements computed using FreeSurfer, a widely used brain Magnetic Resonance Image (MRI) analysis software package. We provide a quantitative and objective empirical evaluation of the statistical performance of the proposed method on longitudinal data from subjects suffering from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) at baseline. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of a heteroscedastic hazards regression model.

PubMed

Wu, Hong-Dar Isaac; Hsieh, Fushing; Chen, Chen-Hsin

2002-03-01

A Cox-type regression model accommodating heteroscedasticity, with a power factor of the baseline cumulative hazard, is investigated for analyzing data with crossing hazards behavior. Since the approach of partial likelihood cannot eliminate the baseline hazard, an overidentified estimating equation (OEE) approach is introduced in the estimation procedure. It by-product, a model checking statistic, is presented to test for the overall adequacy of the heteroscedastic model. Further, under the heteroscedastic model setting, we propose two statistics to test the proportional hazards assumption. Implementation of this model is illustrated in a data analysis of a cancer clinical trial.

Squamous cell carcinoma of cervical lymph nodes from an unknown primary site: The impact of neck dissection.

PubMed

Lou, Jianlin; Wang, Shengye; Wang, Kejing; Chen, Chao; Zhao, Jianqiang; Guo, Liang

2015-10-01

To investigate the treatment strategies of squamous cell carcinoma of cervical lymph nodes from an unknown primary site (SCCUP) and the value of neck dissection (ND). The study included 133 patients referred to the Zhejiang Cancer Hospital from 2001 to 2012, with 109 males and 24 females. Distribution of patients by N status was as follows: N1 - 14 cases; N2a - 21 cases; N2b - 78 cases; N2c - 7 cases; and N3 - 13 cases. 104 patients underwent surgeries of ND while 29 patients underwent nonsurgical treatment. Among 104 patients, 24 underwent classic radical ND, 16 modified ND, 53 selective ND, and 11 extended ND. The selection of surgical strategy was determined by the extent and location of disease. According to the range of ND, 50 patients underwent ND for Levels I-V, 46 for Levels II-V, 4 for Levels I-III, 3 for Levels II-VI, and 1 for Levels I-VI. The data were analyzed with SPSS version 16.0. The differences between groups were calculated by χ2 tests. The actual overall survival (OS) rates were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Different factors affecting the OS were determined by the log-rank test on univariate analysis. Cox regression was used to evaluate the multivariate analysis. The 5-year OS rate of the whole cohort was 67.1%; and the median survival time was 70.0 months. The 5-year OS of ND group and of the non-ND group were 71.3% and 53.2%, respectively (P = 0.061). Cox analysis indicated that N stage (P = 0.000), bilateral neck metastasis (P = 0.001), extracapsular spread (ES) (P = 0.016), and ND (P = 0.028) were independent prognostic factors for the OS of SCCUP. 25 patients (18.8%) had neck recurrence or residue. The locoregional failure rate of ND group and of the non-ND group were 13.5% and 37.9%, respectively (P = 0.003). Logistic regression analysis indicated that higher N stage was the main risk factor for locoregional failure (P = 0.015). N stage, bilateral neck metastasis, ES, and ND were the main factors for the survival rate of SCCUP. N3 stage was the independent risk factor for locoregional failure. ND could significantly increase the locoregional control and may benefit the survival rate.

All-cause mortality of elderly Australian veterans using COX-2 selective or non-selective NSAIDs: a longitudinal study

PubMed Central

Kerr, Stephen J; Rowett, Debra S; Sayer, Geoffrey P; Whicker, Susan D; Saltman, Deborah C; Mant, Andrea

2011-01-01

AIM To determine hazard ratios for all-cause mortality in elderly Australian veterans taking COX-2 selective and non-selective NSAIDs. METHODS Patient cohorts were constructed from claims databases (1997 to 2007) for veterans and dependants with full treatment entitlement irrespective of military service. Patients were grouped by initial exposure: celecoxib, rofecoxib, meloxicam, diclofenac, non-selective NSAID. A reference group was constructed of patients receiving glaucoma/hypothyroid medications and none of the study medications. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for each exposure group against each of the reference group. The final model was adjusted for age, gender and co-prescription as a surrogate for cardiovascular risk. Patients were censored if the gap in supply of study prescription exceeded 30 days or if another study medication was initiated. The outcome measure in all analyses was death. RESULTS Hazard ratios and 95% CIs, adjusted for age, gender and cardiovascular risk, for each group relative to the reference group were: celecoxib 1.39 (1.25, 1.55), diclofenac 1.44 (1.28, 1.62), meloxicam 1.49 (1.25, 1.78), rofecoxib 1.58 (1.39, 1.79), non-selective NSAIDs 1.76 (1.59, 1.94). CONCLUSIONS In this large cohort of Australian veterans exposed to COX-2 selective and non-selective NSAIDs, there was a significant increased mortality risk for those exposed to either COX-2-selective or non-selective NSAIDs relative to those exposed to unrelated (glaucoma/hypothyroid) medications. PMID:21276041

Prognostic factors in multiple myeloma: selection using Cox's proportional hazard model.

PubMed

Pasqualetti, P; Collacciani, A; Maccarone, C; Casale, R

1996-01-01

The pretreatment characteristics of 210 patients with multiple myeloma, observed between 1980 and 1994, were evaluated as potential prognostic factors for survival. Multivariate analysis according to Cox's proportional hazard model identified in the 160 dead patients with myeloma, among 26 different single prognostic variables, the following factors in order of importance: beta 2-microglobulin; bone marrow plasma cell percentage, hemoglobinemia, degree of lytic bone lesions, serum creatinine, and serum albumin. By analysis of these variables a prognostic index (PI), that considers the regression coefficients derived by Cox's model of all significant factors, was obtained. Using this it was possible to separate the whole patient group into three stages: stage I (PI < 1.485, 67 patients), stage II (PI: 1.485-2.090, 76 patients), and stage III (PI > 2.090, 67 patients), with a median survivals of 68, 36 and 13 months (P < 0.0001), respectively. Also the responses to therapy (P < 0.0001) and the survival curves (P < 0.00001) presented significant differences among the three subgroups. Knowledge of these factors could be of value in predicting prognosis and in planning therapy in patients with multiple myeloma.

Subjective Global Assessment-Dialysis Malnutrition Score and cardiovascular risk in hemodialysis patients: an observational cohort study.

PubMed

Spatola, Leonardo; Finazzi, Silvia; Calvetta, Albania; Reggiani, Francesco; Morenghi, Emanuela; Santostasi, Silvia; Angelini, Claudio; Badalamenti, Salvatore; Mugnai, Giacomo

2018-06-23

Malnutrition is an important risk factor for cardiovascular mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients. However, current malnutrition biomarkers seem unable to accurately estimate the role of malnutrition in predicting cardiovascular risk. Our aim was to investigate the role of the Subjective Global Assessment-Dialysis Malnutrition Score (SGA-DMS) compared to two well-recognized comorbidity scores-Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and modified CCI (excluding age-factor) (mCCI)-in predicting cardiovascular events in HD patients. In 86 maintenance HD patients followed from June 2015 to June 2017, we analyzed biohumoral data and clinical scores as risk factors for cardiovascular events (acute heart failure, acute coronary syndrome and stroke). Their impact on outcome was investigated by linear regression, Cox regression models and ROC analysis. Cardiovascular events occurred in 26/86 (30%) patients during the 2-year follow-up. Linear regression showed only age and dialysis vintage to be positively related to SGA-DMS: B 0.21 (95% CI 0.01; 0.30) p 0.05, and B 0.24 (0.09; 0.34) p 0.02, respectively, while serum albumin, normalized protein catabolic rate (nPCR) and dialysis dose (Kt/V) were negatively related to SGA-DMS: B - 1.29 (- 3.29; - 0.81) p 0.02; B - 0.08 (- 1.52; - 0.35) p 0.04 and B - 2.63 (- 5.25; - 0.22) p 0.03, respectively. At Cox regression analysis, SGA-DMS was not a risk predictor for cardiovascular events: HR 1.09 (0.9; 1.22), while both CCI and mCCI were significant predictors: HR 1.43 (1.13; 1.87) and HR 1.57 (1.20; 2.06) also in Cox adjusted models. ROC analysis reported similar AUCs for CCI and mCCI: 0.72 (0.60; 0.89) p 0.00 and 0.70 (0.58; 0.82) p 0.00, respectively, compared to SGA-DMS 0.56 (0.49; 0.72) p 0.14. SGA-DMS is not a superior and significant prognostic tool compared to CCI and mCCI in assessing cardiovascular risk in HD patients, even it allows to appraise both malnutrition and comorbidity status.

Targeting regressions: do readers pay attention to the left?

PubMed

Apel, Jens K; Henderson, John M; Ferreira, Fernanda

2012-12-01

The perceptual span during normal reading extends approximately 14 to 15 characters to the right and three to four characters to the left of a current fixation. In the present study, we investigated whether the perceptual span extends farther than three to four characters to the left immediately before readers execute a regression. We used a display-change paradigm in which we masked words beyond the three-to-four-character range to the left of a fixation. We hypothesized that if reading behavior was affected by this manipulation before regressions but not before progressions, we would have evidence that the perceptual span extends farther left before leftward eye movements. We observed significantly shorter regressive saccades and longer fixation and gaze durations in the masked condition when a regression was executed. Forward saccades were entirely unaffected by the manipulations. We concluded that the perceptual span during reading changes, depending on the direction of a following saccade.

Default risk modeling beyond the first-passage approximation: Extended Black-Cox model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, Yuri A.; Shokhirev, Nikolai V.

2010-07-01

We develop a generalization of the Black-Cox structural model of default risk. The extended model captures uncertainty related to firm’s ability to avoid default even if company’s liabilities momentarily exceeding its assets. Diffusion in a linear potential with the radiation boundary condition is used to mimic a company’s default process. The exact solution of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation allows for derivation of analytical expressions for the cumulative probability of default and the relevant hazard rate. Obtained closed formulas fit well the historical data on global corporate defaults and demonstrate the split behavior of credit spreads for bonds of companies in different categories of speculative-grade ratings with varying time to maturity. Introduction of the finite rate of default at the boundary improves valuation of credit risk for short time horizons, which is the key advantage of the proposed model. We also consider the influence of uncertainty in the initial distance to the default barrier on the outcome of the model and demonstrate that this additional source of incomplete information may be responsible for nonzero credit spreads for bonds with very short time to maturity.

Cognition and Incident Coronary Heart Disease in Late Midlife: The Whitehall II Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Singh-Manoux, Archana; Sabia, Severine; Kivimaki, Mika; Shipley, Martin J.; Ferrie, Jane E.; Marmot, Michael G.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether cognitive function in midlife predicts incident coronary heart disease (CHD), followed up over 6 years. Data on 5292 (28% women, mean age 55) individuals free from CHD at baseline were drawn from the British Whitehall II study. We used Cox regression to model the association between cognition…

The Role of Inhibitory Control in the Development of Human Figure Drawing in Young Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riggs, Kevin J.; Jolley, Richard P.; Simpson, Andrew

2013-01-01

We investigated the role of inhibitory control in young children's human figure drawing. We used the Bear-Dragon task as a measure of inhibitory control and used the classification system devised by Cox and Parkin to measure the development of human figure drawing. We tested 50 children aged between 40 and 64 months. Regression analysis showed…

A Case for Transforming the Criterion of a Predictive Validity Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patterson, Brian F.; Kobrin, Jennifer L.

2011-01-01

This study presents a case for applying a transformation (Box and Cox, 1964) of the criterion used in predictive validity studies. The goals of the transformation were to better meet the assumptions of the linear regression model and to reduce the residual variance of fitted (i.e., predicted) values. Using data for the 2008 cohort of first-time,…

The Association of Administrative Segregation Placement and Other Risk Factors with the Self-Injury-Free Time of Male Prisoners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lanes, Eric

2009-01-01

The current study examined the relationship between risk factors for prisoner self-injurious behavior (SIB) and the amount of time male prisoners function without engaging in SIB (SIB-free time), and obtained estimates of SIB-free time for selected SIB prisoner subgroups dependent on their housing status. Conditional Cox regression analysis…

Development and validation of prognostic models in metastatic breast cancer: a GOCS study.

PubMed

Rabinovich, M; Vallejo, C; Bianco, A; Perez, J; Machiavelli, M; Leone, B; Romero, A; Rodriguez, R; Cuevas, M; Dansky, C

1992-01-01

The significance of several prognostic factors and the magnitude of their influence on response rate and survival were assessed by means of uni- and multivariate analyses in 362 patients with stage IV (UICC) breast carcinoma receiving combination chemotherapy as first systemic treatment over an 8-year period. Univariate analyses identified performance status and prior adjuvant radiotherapy as predictors of objective regression (OR), whereas the performance status, prior chemotherapy and radiotherapy (adjuvants), white blood cells count, SGOT and SGPT levels, and metastatic pattern were significantly correlated to survival. In multivariate analyses favorable characteristics associated to OR were prior adjuvant radiotherapy, no prior chemotherapy and postmenopausal status. Regarding survival, the performance status and visceral involvement were selected by the Cox model. The predictive accuracy of the logistic and the proportional hazards models was retrospectively tested in the training sample, and prospectively in a new population of 126 patients also receiving combined chemotherapy as first treatment for metastatic breast cancer. A certain overfitting to data in the training sample was observed with the regression model for response. However, the discriminative ability of the Cox model for survival was clearly confirmed.

Kawasaki Disease Increases the Incidence of Myopia.

PubMed

Kung, Yung-Jen; Wei, Chang-Ching; Chen, Liuh An; Chen, Jiin Yi; Chang, Ching-Yao; Lin, Chao-Jen; Lim, Yun-Ping; Tien, Peng-Tai; Chen, Hsuan-Ju; Huang, Yong-San; Lin, Hui-Ju; Wan, Lei

2017-01-01

The prevalence of myopia has rapidly increased in recent decades and has led to a considerable global public health concern. In this study, we elucidate the relationship between Kawasaki disease (KD) and the incidence of myopia. We used Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database to conduct a population-based cohort study. We identified patients diagnosed with KD and individuals without KD who were selected by frequency matched based on sex, age, and the index year. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratio and 95% confidence intervals for the comparison of the 2 cohorts. The log-rank test was used to test the incidence of myopia in the 2 cohorts. A total of 532 patients were included in the KD cohort and 2128 in the non-KD cohort. The risk of myopia (hazard ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.58; P < 0.01) was higher among patients with KD than among those in the non-KD cohort. The Cox proportional hazards regression model showed that irrespective of age, gender, and urbanization, Kawasaki disease was an independent risk factor for myopia. Patients with Kawasaki disease exhibited a substantially higher risk for developing myopia.

Prognostic significance of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio in patients with stage III and IV colorectal cancer

PubMed Central

Kim, Jae Hyun; Lee, Jun Yeop; Kim, Hae Koo; Lee, Jin Wook; Jung, Sung Gyu; Jung, Kyoungwon; Kim, Sung Eun; Moon, Won; Park, Moo In; Park, Seun Ja

2017-01-01

AIM To evaluate the prognostic value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS Between April 1996 and December 2010, medical records from a total of 1868 patients with CRC were retrospectively reviewed. The values of simple inflammatory markers including NLR and PLR in predicting the long-term outcomes of these patients were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models. RESULTS The median follow-up duration was 46 mo (interquartile range, 22-73). The estimation of NLR and PLR was based on the time of diagnosis. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, high NLR (≥ 3.0) and high PLR (≥ 160) were independent risk factors predicting poor long-term outcomes in patients with stage III and IV CRC. However, high NLR and high PLR were not prognostic factors in patients with stage I and II CRC. CONCLUSION In this study, we identified that high NLR (≥ 3.0) and high PLR (≥ 160) are useful prognostic factors to predict long-term outcomes in patients with stage III and IV CRC. PMID:28210087

Aspergillus Colonization of the Lung Allograft is a Risk Factor for Bronchiolitis Obliterans Syndrome

PubMed Central

Weigt, S. Samuel; Elashoff, Robert M.; Huang, Cathy; Ardehali, Abbas; Gregson, Aric L.; Kubak, Bernard; Fishbein, Michael C.; Saggar, Rajeev; Keane, Michael P.; Saggar, Rajan; Lynch, Joseph P.; Zisman, David A.; Ross, David J.; Belperio, John A.

2014-01-01

Multiple infections have been linked with the development of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) post-lung transplantation. Lung allograft airway colonization by Aspergillus species is common among lung transplant recipients. We hypothesized that Aspergillus colonization may promote the development of BOS and may decrease survival post-lung transplantation. We reviewed all lung transplant recipients transplanted in our center between 1/2000 and 6/2006. Bronchoscopy was performed according to a surveillance protocol and when clinically indicated. Aspergillus colonization was defined as a positive culture from bronchoalveolar lavage or two sputum cultures positive for the same Aspergillus species, in the absence of invasive pulmonary Aspergillosis. We found that Aspergillus colonization was strongly associated with BOS and BOS related mortality in Cox regression analyses. Aspergillus colonization typically preceded the development of BOS by a median of 261 days (95% CI 87 to 520). Furthermore, in a multivariate Cox regression model, Aspergillus colonization was a distinct risk factor for BOS, independent of acute rejection. These data suggest a potential causative role for Aspergillus colonization in the development of BOS post-lung transplantation and raise the possibility that strategies aimed to prevent Aspergillus colonization may help delay or reduce the incidence of BOS. PMID:19459819

Prognostic value of inflammation-based scores in patients with osteosarcoma

PubMed Central

Liu, Bangjian; Huang, Yujing; Sun, Yuanjue; Zhang, Jianjun; Yao, Yang; Shen, Zan; Xiang, Dongxi; He, Aina

2016-01-01

Systemic inflammation responses have been associated with cancer development and progression. C-reactive protein (CRP), Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR), and neutrophil-platelet score (NPS) have been shown to be independent risk factors in various types of malignant tumors. This retrospective analysis of 162 osteosarcoma cases was performed to estimate their predictive value of survival in osteosarcoma. All statistical analyses were performed by SPSS statistical software. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was generated to set optimal thresholds; area under the curve (AUC) was used to show the discriminatory abilities of inflammation-based scores; Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to plot the survival curve; cox regression models were employed to determine the independent prognostic factors. The optimal cut-off points of NLR, PLR, and LMR were 2.57, 123.5 and 4.73, respectively. GPS and NLR had a markedly larger AUC than CRP, PLR and LMR. High levels of CRP, GPS, NLR, PLR, and low level of LMR were significantly associated with adverse prognosis (P < 0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that GPS, NLR, and occurrence of metastasis were top risk factors associated with death of osteosarcoma patients. PMID:28008988

Disadvantage of survival outcomes in widowed patients with colorectal neuroendocrine neoplasm: an analysis of surveillance, epidemiology and end results database.

PubMed

Li, Jing; Wang, Ying; Han, Fang; Wang, Zhu; Xu, Lichun; Tong, Jiandong

2016-12-13

Marital status correlates with health. Our goal was to examine the impact of marital status on the survival outcomes of patients with colorectal neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs). The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results program was used to identify 1,289 eligible patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2010 with colorectal NENs. Statistical analyses were performed using Chi-square, Kaplan-Meier, and Cox regression proportional hazards methods. Patients in the widowed group had the highest proportion of larger tumor (>2cm), and higher ratio of poor grade (Grade III and IV) and more tumors at advanced stage (P<0.05). The 5-year cause specific survival (CSS) was 76% in the married group, 51% in the widowed group, 73% in the single group, and 72% in the divorced/separated group, which manifest statistically significant difference in the univariate log-rank test and Cox regression model (P<0.05). Furthermore, marital status was an independent prognostic factor only in Distant stage (P<0.001). In conclusion, patients in widowed group were at greater risk of cancer specific mortality from colorectal NENs and social support may lead to improved outcomes for patients with NENs.

Randomized Trial of Intensive Housing Placement and Community Transition Services for Episodic and Recidivist Homeless Families

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Kristen; Pareti, Lauren; DeGenova, Joe; Heller, Anne; Hannigan, Anthony; Gholston, Jennifer

2013-01-01

Objectives. We compared Home to Stay, a pilot of intensive housing placement and community transition services for episodic and recidivist homeless families, with a standard services approach. Methods. Using intention-to-treat analyses, we conducted a modified randomized trial of 138 Home to Stay client families and a control group of 192 client families receiving standard shelter services. Results. Home to Stay clients exited shelter more quickly than clients in the control group (Cox regression, P < .001), more commonly exited shelter with housing subsidies (75% vs 56%), stayed out of shelter longer (Cox regression, P = .011), and spent fewer total days in shelter (376 days vs 449 days). Home to Stay performed best with clients who entered shelter within 180 days of the pilot’s start date and had less impact on clients entering shelter before that time. Conclusions. Relative to standard services, Home to Stay services can accelerate exit from shelter and reduce return to shelter and total sheltered days for episodic and recidivist homeless families. Standard shelter services may be able to narrow this performance gap by incentivizing work with all episodic and recidivist homeless families. PMID:24148053

Misspecification of Cox regression models with composite endpoints

PubMed Central

Wu, Longyang; Cook, Richard J

2012-01-01

Researchers routinely adopt composite endpoints in multicenter randomized trials designed to evaluate the effect of experimental interventions in cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer. Despite their widespread use, relatively little attention has been paid to the statistical properties of estimators of treatment effect based on composite endpoints. We consider this here in the context of multivariate models for time to event data in which copula functions link marginal distributions with a proportional hazards structure. We then examine the asymptotic and empirical properties of the estimator of treatment effect arising from a Cox regression model for the time to the first event. We point out that even when the treatment effect is the same for the component events, the limiting value of the estimator based on the composite endpoint is usually inconsistent for this common value. We find that in this context the limiting value is determined by the degree of association between the events, the stochastic ordering of events, and the censoring distribution. Within the framework adopted, marginal methods for the analysis of multivariate failure time data yield consistent estimators of treatment effect and are therefore preferred. We illustrate the methods by application to a recent asthma study. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:22736519

Adverse Clinical Outcome Associated With Mutations That Typify African American Colorectal Cancers.

PubMed

Wang, Zhenghe; Li, Li; Guda, Kishore; Chen, Zhengyi; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill; Park, Young Soo; Markowitz, Sanford D; Willis, Joseph

2016-12-01

African Americans have the highest incidence and mortality from colorectal cancer (CRC) of any US racial group. We recently described a panel of 15 genes that are statistically significantly more likely to be mutated in CRCs from African Americans than in Caucasians (AA-CRC genes). The current study investigated the outcomes associated with these mutations in African American CRCs (AA-CRCs). In a cohort of 66 patients with stage I-III CRCs, eight of 27 CRCs with AA-CRC gene mutations (Mut+) developed metastatic disease vs only four of 39 mutation-negative (Mut-) cases (P = .03, Cox regression model with two-sided Wald test). Moreover, among stage III cases (n = 33), Mut+ cancers were nearly three times more likely to relapse as Mut- cases (7 of 15 Mut+ vs 3 of 18 Mut-; P = .03, Cox regression model with two-sided Wald test). AA-CRC mutations may thus define a high-risk subset of CRCs that contributes to the overall disparity in CRC outcomes observed in African Americans. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Low Survival Rates of Oral and Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

PubMed Central

da Silva Júnior, Francisco Feliciano; dos Santos, Karine de Cássia Batista; Ferreira, Stefania Jeronimo

2017-01-01

Aim To assess the epidemiological and clinical factors that influence the prognosis of oral and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). Methods One hundred and twenty-one cases of oral and oropharyngeal SCC were selected. The survival curves for each variable were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox regression model was applied to assess the effect of the variables on survival. Results Cancers at an advanced stage were observed in 103 patients (85.1%). Cancers on the tongue were more frequent (23.1%). The survival analysis was 59.9% in one year, 40.7% in two years, and 27.8% in 5 years. There was a significant low survival rate linked to alcohol intake (p = 0.038), advanced cancer staging (p = 0.003), and procedures without surgery (p < 0.001). When these variables were included in the Cox regression model only surgery procedures (p = 0.005) demonstrated a significant effect on survival. Conclusion The findings suggest that patients who underwent surgery had a greater survival rate compared with those that did not. The low survival rates and the high percentage of patients diagnosed at advanced stages demonstrate that oral and oropharyngeal cancer patients should receive more attention. PMID:28638410

[Negative prognostic impact of female gender on oncological outcomes following radical cystectomy].

PubMed

Dabi, Y; Rouscoff, Y; Delongchamps, N B; Sibony, M; Saighi, D; Zerbib, M; Peyraumore, M; Xylinas, E

2016-02-01

To confirm gender specific differences in pathologic factors and survival rates of urothelial bladder cancer patients treated with radical cystectomy. We conducted a retrospective monocentric study on 701 patients treated with radical cystectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy for muscle invasive bladder cancer. Impact of gender on recurrence rate, specific and non-specific mortality rate were evaluated using Cox regression models in univariate and multivariate analysis. We collected data on 553 males (78.9%) and 148 females (21.1%) between 1998 and 2011. Both groups were comparable at inclusion regarding age, pathologic stage, nodal status and lymphovascular invasion. Mean follow-up time was 45 months (interquartile 23-73) and by that time, 163 patients (23.3%) had recurrence of their tumor and 127 (18.1%) died from their disease. In multivariable Cox regression analyses, female gender was independently associated with disease recurrence (RR: 1.73; 95% CI 1.22-2.47; P=0.02) and cancer-specific mortality (RR=2.50, 95% CI=1.71-3.68; P<0.001). We confirmed female gender to be an independent negative prognosis factor for patients following a radical cystectomy and lymphadenectomy for an invasive muscle bladder cancer. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Extended skyrmion lattice scattering and long-time memory in the chiral magnet Fe1 -xCoxSi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bannenberg, L. J.; Kakurai, K.; Qian, F.; Lelièvre-Berna, E.; Dewhurst, C. D.; Onose, Y.; Endoh, Y.; Tokura, Y.; Pappas, C.

2016-09-01

Small angle neutron scattering measurements on a bulk single crystal of the doped chiral magnet Fe1 -xCoxSi with x =0.3 reveal a pronounced effect of the magnetic history and cooling rates on the magnetic phase diagram. The extracted phase diagrams are qualitatively different for zero and field cooling and reveal a metastable skyrmion lattice phase outside the A phase for the latter case. These thermodynamically metastable skyrmion lattice correlations coexist with the conical phase and can be enhanced by increasing the cooling rate. They appear in a wide region of the phase diagram at temperatures below the A phase but also at fields considerably smaller or higher than the fields required to stabilize the A phase.

Functional form diagnostics for Cox's proportional hazards model.

PubMed

León, Larry F; Tsai, Chih-Ling

2004-03-01

We propose a new type of residual and an easily computed functional form test for the Cox proportional hazards model. The proposed test is a modification of the omnibus test for testing the overall fit of a parametric regression model, developed by Stute, González Manteiga, and Presedo Quindimil (1998, Journal of the American Statistical Association93, 141-149), and is based on what we call censoring consistent residuals. In addition, we develop residual plots that can be used to identify the correct functional forms of covariates. We compare our test with the functional form test of Lin, Wei, and Ying (1993, Biometrika80, 557-572) in a simulation study. The practical application of the proposed residuals and functional form test is illustrated using both a simulated data set and a real data set.

Use of the Box-Cox Transformation in Detecting Changepoints in Daily Precipitation Data Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X. L.; Chen, H.; Wu, Y.; Pu, Q.

2009-04-01

This study integrates a Box-Cox power transformation procedure into two statistical tests for detecting changepoints in Gaussian data series, to make the changepoint detection methods applicable to non-Gaussian data series, such as daily precipitation amounts. The detection power aspects of transformed methods in a common trend two-phase regression setting are assessed by Monte Carlo simulations for data of a log-normal or Gamma distribution. The results show that the transformed methods have increased the power of detection, in comparison with the corresponding original (untransformed) methods. The transformed data much better approximate to a Gaussian distribution. As an example of application, the new methods are applied to a series of daily precipitation amounts recorded at a station in Canada, showing satisfactory detection power.

Sieve estimation of Cox models with latent structures.

PubMed

Cao, Yongxiu; Huang, Jian; Liu, Yanyan; Zhao, Xingqiu

2016-12-01

This article considers sieve estimation in the Cox model with an unknown regression structure based on right-censored data. We propose a semiparametric pursuit method to simultaneously identify and estimate linear and nonparametric covariate effects based on B-spline expansions through a penalized group selection method with concave penalties. We show that the estimators of the linear effects and the nonparametric component are consistent. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic normality of the estimator of the linear effects. To compute the proposed estimators, we develop a modified blockwise majorization descent algorithm that is efficient and easy to implement. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method performs well in finite sample situations. We also use the primary biliary cirrhosis data to illustrate its application. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Lipid Adjustment for Chemical Exposures: Accounting for Concomitant Variables

PubMed Central

Li, Daniel; Longnecker, Matthew P.; Dunson, David B.

2013-01-01

Background Some environmental chemical exposures are lipophilic and need to be adjusted by serum lipid levels before data analyses. There are currently various strategies that attempt to account for this problem, but all have their drawbacks. To address such concerns, we propose a new method that uses Box-Cox transformations and a simple Bayesian hierarchical model to adjust for lipophilic chemical exposures. Methods We compared our Box-Cox method to existing methods. We ran simulation studies in which increasing levels of lipid-adjusted chemical exposure did and did not increase the odds of having a disease, and we looked at both single-exposure and multiple-exposures cases. We also analyzed an epidemiology dataset that examined the effects of various chemical exposures on the risk of birth defects. Results Compared with existing methods, our Box-Cox method produced unbiased estimates, good coverage, similar power, and lower type-I error rates. This was the case in both single- and multiple-exposure simulation studies. Results from analysis of the birth-defect data differed from results using existing methods. Conclusion Our Box-Cox method is a novel and intuitive way to account for the lipophilic nature of certain chemical exposures. It addresses some of the problems with existing methods, is easily extendable to multiple exposures, and can be used in any analyses that involve concomitant variables. PMID:24051893

Chemopreventive effects of NSAIDs as inhibitors of cyclooxygenase-2 and inducers of apoptosis in experimental lung carcinogenesis.

PubMed

Setia, Shruti; Vaish, Vivek; Sanyal, Sankar Nath

2012-07-01

Roles of cyclooxygenase (COX) enzyme and intrinsic pathway of apoptosis have been explored for the chemopreventive effects of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) on 9,10-dimethyl benz(a)anthracene (DMBA)-induced lung cancer in rat model. 16 weeks after the administration of DMBA, morphological analysis revealed the occurrences of tumours and lesions, which were regressed considerably with the co-administration of indomethacin and etoricoxib, the two NSAIDs under investigation. DMBA group was marked by hyperplasia and dysplasia as observed by histological examination, and these features were corrected to a large extent by the two NSAIDs. Elevated levels of COX-2 were seen in the DMBA group, the enzyme responsible for prostaglandin synthesis during inflammation and cancer, whilst the expression of the constitutive isoform, COX-1, was equally expressed in all the groups. Apoptosis was quantified by studying the activities of apaf-1, caspase-9, and 3 by immunofluorescence and western blots. Their activities were found to diminish in the DMBA-treated animals as compared to the other groups. Fluorescent co-staining of the isolated broncho-alveolar lavage cells showed reduced number of apoptotic cells in the DMBA group, indicating decrease in apoptosis after carcinogen administration. The present results thus suggest that the mechanism of cancer chemoprevention of NSAIDs may include the suppression of COX-2 and the induction of apoptosis.

Reconstruction of the Foot and Ankle Using Pedicled or Free Flaps: Perioperative Flap Survival Analysis

PubMed Central

Li, Xiucun; Cui, Jianli; Maharjan, Suraj; Lu, Laijin; Gong, Xu

2016-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study is to determine the correlation between non-technical risk factors and the perioperative flap survival rate and to evaluate the choice of skin flap for the reconstruction of foot and ankle. Methods This was a clinical retrospective study. Nine variables were identified. The Kaplan-Meier method coupled with a log-rank test and a Cox regression model was used to predict the risk factors that influence the perioperative flap survival rate. The relationship between postoperative wound infection and risk factors was also analyzed using a logistic regression model. Results The overall flap survival rate was 85.42%. The necrosis rates of free flaps and pedicled flaps were 5.26% and 20.69%, respectively. According to the Cox regression model, flap type (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.592; 95% confidence interval [CI] (1.606, 4.184); P < 0.001) and postoperative wound infection (HR = 0.266; 95% CI (0.134, 0.529); P < 0.001) were found to be statistically significant risk factors associated with flap necrosis. Based on the logistic regression model, preoperative wound bed inflammation (odds ratio [OR] = 11.371,95% CI (3.117, 41.478), P < 0.001) was a statistically significant risk factor for postoperative wound infection. Conclusion Flap type and postoperative wound infection were both independent risk factors influencing the flap survival rate in the foot and ankle. However, postoperative wound infection was a risk factor for the pedicled flap but not for the free flap. Microvascular anastomosis is a major cause of free flap necrosis. To reconstruct complex or wide soft tissue defects of the foot or ankle, free flaps are safer and more reliable than pedicled flaps and should thus be the primary choice. PMID:27930679

Marital status and survival of patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma: a population-based study.

PubMed

Shi, Xiao; Zhang, Ting-Ting; Hu, Wei-Ping; Ji, Qing-Hai

2017-04-25

The relationship between marital status and oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) survival has not been explored. The objective of our study was to evaluate the impact of marital status on OCSCC survival and investigate the potential mechanisms. Married patients had better 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) (66.7% vs 54.9%) and 5-year overall survival (OS) (56.0% vs 41.1%). In multivariate Cox regression models, unmarried patients also showed higher mortality risk for both CSS (Hazard Ratio [HR]: 1.260, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.187-1.339, P < 0.001) and OS (HR: 1.328, 95% CI: 1.266-1.392, P < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression showed married patients were more likely to be diagnosed at earlier stage (P < 0.001) and receive surgery (P < 0.001). Married patients still demonstrated better prognosis in the 1:1 matched group analysis (CSS: 62.9% vs 60.8%, OS: 52.3% vs 46.5%). 11022 eligible OCSCC patients were identified from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, including 5902 married and 5120 unmarried individuals. Kaplan-Meier analysis, Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to analyze survival and mortality risk. Influence of marital status on stage, age at diagnosis and selection of treatment was determined by binomial and multinomial logistic regression. Propensity score matching method was adopted to perform a 1:1 matched cohort. Marriage has an independently protective effect on OCSCC survival. Earlier diagnosis and more sufficient treatment are possible explanations. Besides, even after 1:1 matching, survival advantage of married group still exists, indicating that spousal support from other aspects may also play an important role.

Marital status and survival of patients with oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Shi, Xiao; Zhang, Ting-ting; Hu, Wei-ping; Ji, Qing-hai

2017-01-01

Background The relationship between marital status and oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) survival has not been explored. The objective of our study was to evaluate the impact of marital status on OCSCC survival and investigate the potential mechanisms. Results Married patients had better 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) (66.7% vs 54.9%) and 5-year overall survival (OS) (56.0% vs 41.1%). In multivariate Cox regression models, unmarried patients also showed higher mortality risk for both CSS (Hazard Ratio [HR]: 1.260, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.187–1.339, P < 0.001) and OS (HR: 1.328, 95% CI: 1.266–1.392, P < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression showed married patients were more likely to be diagnosed at earlier stage (P < 0.001) and receive surgery (P < 0.001). Married patients still demonstrated better prognosis in the 1:1 matched group analysis (CSS: 62.9% vs 60.8%, OS: 52.3% vs 46.5%). Materials and Methods 11022 eligible OCSCC patients were identified from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, including 5902 married and 5120 unmarried individuals. Kaplan-Meier analysis, Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to analyze survival and mortality risk. Influence of marital status on stage, age at diagnosis and selection of treatment was determined by binomial and multinomial logistic regression. Propensity score matching method was adopted to perform a 1:1 matched cohort. Conclusions Marriage has an independently protective effect on OCSCC survival. Earlier diagnosis and more sufficient treatment are possible explanations. Besides, even after 1:1 matching, survival advantage of married group still exists, indicating that spousal support from other aspects may also play an important role. PMID:28415710

Duration of Mechanical Ventilation in the Emergency Department.

PubMed

Angotti, Lauren B; Richards, Jeremy B; Fisher, Daniel F; Sankoff, Jeffrey D; Seigel, Todd A; Al Ashry, Haitham S; Wilcox, Susan R

2017-08-01

Due to hospital crowding, mechanically ventilated patients are increasingly spending hours boarding in emergency departments (ED) before intensive care unit (ICU) admission. This study aims to evaluate the association between time ventilated in the ED and in-hospital mortality, duration of mechanical ventilation, ICU and hospital length of stay (LOS). This was a multi-center, prospective, observational study of patients ventilated in the ED, conducted at three academic Level I Trauma Centers from July 2011 to March 2013. All consecutive adult patients on invasive mechanical ventilation were eligible for enrollment. We performed a Cox regression to assess for a mortality effect for mechanically ventilated patients with each hour of increasing LOS in the ED and multivariable regression analyses to assess for independently significant contributors to in-hospital mortality. Our primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, with secondary outcomes of ventilator days, ICU LOS and hospital LOS. We further commented on use of lung protective ventilation and frequency of ventilator changes made in this cohort. We enrolled 535 patients, of whom 525 met all inclusion criteria. Altered mental status without respiratory pathology was the most common reason for intubation, followed by trauma and respiratory failure. Using iterated Cox regression, a mortality effect occurred at ED time of mechanical ventilation > 7 hours, and the longer ED stay was also associated with a longer total duration of intubation. However, adjusted multivariable regression analysis demonstrated only older age and admission to the neurosciences ICU as independently associated with increased mortality. Of interest, only 23.8% of patients ventilated in the ED for over seven hours had changes made to their ventilator. In a prospective observational study of patients mechanically ventilated in the ED, there was a significant mortality benefit to expedited transfer of patients into an appropriate ICU setting.

Determining delayed admission to intensive care unit for mechanically ventilated patients in the emergency department.

PubMed

Hung, Shih-Chiang; Kung, Chia-Te; Hung, Chih-Wei; Liu, Ber-Ming; Liu, Jien-Wei; Chew, Ghee; Chuang, Hung-Yi; Lee, Wen-Huei; Lee, Tzu-Chi

2014-08-23

The adverse effects of delayed admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) have been recognized in previous studies. However, the definitions of delayed admission varies across studies. This study proposed a model to define "delayed admission", and explored the effect of ICU-waiting time on patients' outcome. This retrospective cohort study included non-traumatic adult patients on mechanical ventilation in the emergency department (ED), from July 2009 to June 2010. The primary outcomes measures were 21-ventilator-day mortality and prolonged hospital stays (over 30 days). Models of Cox regression and logistic regression were used for multivariate analysis. The non-delayed ICU-waiting was defined as a period in which the time effect on mortality was not statistically significant in a Cox regression model. To identify a suitable cut-off point between "delayed" and "non-delayed", subsets from the overall data were made based on ICU-waiting time and the hazard ratio of ICU-waiting hour in each subset was iteratively calculated. The cut-off time was then used to evaluate the impact of delayed ICU admission on mortality and prolonged length of hospital stay. The final analysis included 1,242 patients. The time effect on mortality emerged after 4 hours, thus we deduced ICU-waiting time in ED > 4 hours as delayed. By logistic regression analysis, delayed ICU admission affected the outcomes of 21 ventilator-days mortality and prolonged hospital stay, with odds ratio of 1.41 (95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 1.89) and 1.56 (95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 2.27) respectively. For patients on mechanical ventilation at the ED, delayed ICU admission is associated with higher probability of mortality and additional resource expenditure. A benchmark waiting time of no more than 4 hours for ICU admission is recommended.

A difference in systolic blood pressure between arms is a novel predictor of the development and progression of diabetic nephropathy in patients with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Okada, Hiroshi; Fukui, Michiaki; Tanaka, Muhei; Matsumoto, Shinobu; Iwase, Hiroya; Kobayashi, Kanae; Asano, Mai; Yamazaki, Masahiro; Hasegawa, Goji; Nakamura, Naoto

2013-10-01

Recent studies have suggested that a difference in systolic blood pressure (SBP) between arms is associated with both vascular disease and mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between a difference in SBP between arms and change in urinary albumin excretion or development of albuminuria in patients with type 2 diabetes. We measured SBP in 408 consecutive patients with type 2 diabetes, and calculated a difference in SBP between arms. We performed follow-up study to assess change in urinary albumin excretion or development of albuminuria, mean interval of which was 4.6 ± 1.7 years. We then evaluated the relationship of a difference in SBP between arms to diabetic nephropathy using multiple regression analysis and multiple Cox regression model. Multiple regression analyses demonstrated that a difference in SBP between arms was independently associated with change in urinary albumin excretion (β = 0.1869, P = 0.0010). Adjusted Cox regression analyses demonstrated that a difference in SBP between arms was associated with an increased hazard of development of albuminuria; hazard ratio was 1.215 (95% confidence interval 1.077-1.376). Moreover, the risk of development of albuminuria was increased in patients with a difference in SBP of equal to or more than 10 mmHg between arms; hazard ratio was 4.168 (95% confidence interval 1.478-11.70). A difference in SBP between arms could be a novel predictor of the development and progression of diabetic nephropathy in patients with type 2 diabetes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lung Cancer Prognosis in Elderly Solid Organ Transplant Recipients

PubMed Central

Sigel, Keith; Veluswamy, Rajwanth; Krauskopf, Katherine; Mehrotra, Anita; Mhango, Grace; Sigel, Carlie; Wisnivesky, Juan

2015-01-01

Background Treatment-related immunosuppression in organ transplant recipients has been linked to increased incidence and risk of progression for several malignancies. Using a population-based cancer cohort, we evaluated whether organ transplantation was associated with worse prognosis in elderly patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results registry linked to Medicare claims we identified 597 patients age ≥65 with NSCLC who had received organ transplants (kidney, liver, heart or lung) prior to cancer diagnosis. These cases were compared to 114,410 untransplanted NSCLC patients. We compared overall survival (OS) by transplant status using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox regression. To account for an increased risk of non-lung cancer death (competing risks) in transplant recipients, we used conditional probability function (CPF) analyses. Multiple CPF regression was used to evaluate lung cancer prognosis in organ transplant recipients while adjusting for confounders. Results Transplant recipients presented with earlier stage lung cancer (p=0.002) and were more likely to have squamous cell carcinoma (p=0.02). Cox regression analyses showed that having received a non-lung organ transplant was associated with poorer OS (p<0.05) while lung transplantation was associated with no difference in prognosis. After accounting for competing risks of death using CPF regression, no differences in cancer-specific survival were noted between non-lung transplant recipients and non-transplant patients. Conclusions Non-lung solid organ transplant recipients who developed NSCLC had worse OS than non-transplant recipients due to competing risks of death. Lung cancer-specific survival analyses suggest that NSCLC tumor behavior may be similar in these two groups. PMID:25839704

Do breast implants adversely affect prognosis among those subsequently diagnosed with breast cancer? Findings from an extended follow-up of a Canadian cohort.

PubMed

Lavigne, Eric; Holowaty, Eric J; Pan, Sai Yi; Xie, Lin; Villeneuve, Paul J; Morrison, Howard; Brisson, Jacques

2012-10-01

Cosmetic breast implants may impair the ability to detect breast cancers. The aims of this study were to examine whether implants and implant characteristics are associated with more advanced breast tumors at diagnosis and poorer survival. Study population includes all invasive breast cancer cases diagnosed during follow-up of the large Canadian Breast Implant Cohort. A total of 409 women with cosmetic breast implants and 444 women with other cosmetic surgery were diagnosed with breast cancer. These women were compared for stage at diagnosis using multinomial logistic regression models. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used for breast cancer-specific mortality analyses. Comparisons were also conducted according to implant characteristics. Compared with women with other cosmetic surgery, those with cosmetic breast implants had at later stage breast cancer diagnosis (OR of having stage III/IV vs. stage I at diagnosis: 3.04, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.81-5.10; P < 0.001). A nonstatistically significant increase in breast cancer-specific mortality rate for women with breast implants relative to surgical controls was observed (HR = 1.32, 95% CI: 0.94-1.83, P = 0.11). No statistically significant differences in stage and breast cancer mortality were observed according to implant characteristics. At diagnosis, breast cancers tended to be at more advanced stages among women with cosmetic breast implants. Breast cancer-specific survival was lower in these women although the reduction did not reach statistical significance. Further investigations of the effect of breast implants on breast cancer prognosis are warranted. 2012 AACR

A new predictive indicator for development of pressure ulcers in bedridden patients based on common laboratory tests results.

PubMed

Hatanaka, N; Yamamoto, Y; Ichihara, K; Mastuo, S; Nakamura, Y; Watanabe, M; Iwatani, Y

2008-04-01

Various scales have been devised to predict development of pressure ulcers on the basis of clinical and laboratory data, such as the Braden Scale (Braden score), which is used to monitor activity and skin conditions of bedridden patients. However, none of these scales facilitates clinically reliable prediction. To develop a clinical laboratory data-based predictive equation for the development of pressure ulcers. Subjects were 149 hospitalised patients with respiratory disorders who were monitored for the development of pressure ulcers over a 3-month period. The proportional hazards model (Cox regression) was used to analyse the results of 12 basic laboratory tests on the day of hospitalisation in comparison with Braden score. Pressure ulcers developed in 38 patients within the study period. A Cox regression model consisting solely of Braden scale items showed that none of these items contributed to significantly predicting pressure ulcers. Rather, a combination of haemoglobin (Hb), C-reactive protein (CRP), albumin (Alb), age, and gender produced the best model for prediction. Using the set of explanatory variables, we created a new indicator based on a multiple logistic regression equation. The new indicator showed high sensitivity (0.73) and specificity (0.70), and its diagnostic power was higher than that of Alb, Hb, CRP, or the Braden score alone. The new indicator may become a more useful clinical tool for predicting presser ulcers than Braden score. The new indicator warrants verification studies to facilitate its clinical implementation in the future.

Robust best linear estimator for Cox regression with instrumental variables in whole cohort and surrogates with additive measurement error in calibration sample.

PubMed

Wang, Ching-Yun; Song, Xiao

2016-11-01

Biomedical researchers are often interested in estimating the effect of an environmental exposure in relation to a chronic disease endpoint. However, the exposure variable of interest may be measured with errors. In a subset of the whole cohort, a surrogate variable is available for the true unobserved exposure variable. The surrogate variable satisfies an additive measurement error model, but it may not have repeated measurements. The subset in which the surrogate variables are available is called a calibration sample. In addition to the surrogate variables that are available among the subjects in the calibration sample, we consider the situation when there is an instrumental variable available for all study subjects. An instrumental variable is correlated with the unobserved true exposure variable, and hence can be useful in the estimation of the regression coefficients. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric method for Cox regression using the observed data from the whole cohort. The nonparametric estimator is the best linear combination of a nonparametric correction estimator from the calibration sample and the difference of the naive estimators from the calibration sample and the whole cohort. The asymptotic distribution is derived, and the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator is examined via intensive simulation studies. The methods are applied to the Nutritional Biomarkers Study of the Women's Health Initiative. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Aspirin Does Not Increase Heart Failure Events in Heart Failure Patients: From the WARCEF Trial.

PubMed

Teerlink, John R; Qian, Min; Bello, Natalie A; Freudenberger, Ronald S; Levin, Bruce; Di Tullio, Marco R; Graham, Susan; Mann, Douglas L; Sacco, Ralph L; Mohr, J P; Lip, Gregory Y H; Labovitz, Arthur J; Lee, Seitetz C; Ponikowski, Piotr; Lok, Dirk J; Anker, Stefan D; Thompson, John L P; Homma, Shunichi

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether aspirin increases heart failure (HF) hospitalization or death in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction receiving an angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB). Because of its cyclooxygenase inhibiting properties, aspirin has been postulated to increase HF events in patients treated with ACE inhibitors or ARBs. However, no large randomized trial has addressed the clinical relevance of this issue. We compared aspirin and warfarin for HF events (hospitalization, death, or both) in the 2,305 patients enrolled in the WARCEF (Warfarin versus Aspirin in Reduced Cardiac Ejection Fraction) trial (98.6% on ACE inhibitor or ARB treatment), using conventional Cox models for time to first event (489 events). In addition, to examine multiple HF hospitalizations, we used 2 extended Cox models, a conditional model and a total time marginal model, in time to recurrent event analyses (1,078 events). After adjustment for baseline covariates, aspirin- and warfarin-treated patients did not differ in time to first HF event (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.87; 95% confidence interval: 0.72 to 1.04; p = 0.117) or first hospitalization alone (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.88; 95% confidence interval: 0.73 to 1.06; p = 0.168). The extended Cox models also found no significant differences in all HF events or in HF hospitalizations alone after adjustment for covariates. Among patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction in the WARCEF trial, there was no significant difference in risk of HF events between the aspirin and warfarin-treated patients. (Warfarin Versus Aspirin in Reduced Cardiac Ejection Fraction trial [WARCEF]; NCT00041938). Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding in Patients Taking Selective COX-2 Inhibitors: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Lin, Xi-Hsuan; Young, Shih-Hao; Luo, Jiing-Chyuan; Peng, Yen-Ling; Chen, Ping-Hsien; Lin, Chung-Chi; Chen, Wei-Ming; Hou, Ming-Chih; Lee, Fa-Yauh

2018-02-01

Cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors (coxibs) are associated with less upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) than traditional nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (tNSAIDs). However, they also increase the risk of UGIB in high-risk patients. We aimed to identify the risk factors of UGIB in coxibs users. Retrospective cohort study. 2000-2010 National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan. Patients taking coxibs as the study group and patients not taking any coxibs as controls. After age, gender, and comorbidity matching by propensity score, 12,145 coxibs users and 12,145 matched controls were extracted for analysis. The primary end point was the occurrence of UGIB. Cox multivariate proportional hazard regression models were used to determine the risk factors for UGIB among all the enrollees and coxibs users. During a mean follow-up of three years, coxibs users had significantly higher incidence of UGIB than matched controls (P < 0.001, log-rank test). Cox regression analysis showed that coxibs increased risk of UGIB in all participants (hazard ratio = 1.37, 95% confidence interval = 1.19-1.55, P < 0.001). Independent risk factors for UGIB among coxibs users were age, male gender, diabetes, chronic renal disease, cirrhosis, history of peptic ulcer disease, PU bleeding (PUB), Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection, and concomitant use of tNSAIDs, acetylsalicylic acid, or thienopyridines. Among coxibs users, H. pylori infection and history of PUB were especially important risk factors for UGIB. Further studies are needed to determine whether proton pump inhibitors might play a protective role in these at-risk patients. © 2017 American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Prognostic value of FDG PET/CT-based metabolic tumor volumes in metastatic triple negative breast cancer patients

PubMed Central

Marinelli, Brett; Espinet-Col, Carina; Ulaner, Gary A; McArthur, Heather L; Gonen, Mithat; Jochelson, Maxine; Weber, Wolfgang A

2016-01-01

FDG PET/CT-based measures of tumor burden show promise to predict survival in patients with metastatic breast cancer, but the patient populations studied so far are heterogeneous. The reports may have been confounded by the markedly different prognosis of the various subtypes of breast cancer. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation between tumor burden on FDG PET/CT and overall survival (OS) in patients within a defined population: metastatic triple negative breast cancer (MTNBC). FDG PET/CT scans of 47 consecutive MTNBC patients (54±12 years-old) with no other known malignancies were analyzed. A total 393 lesions were identified, and maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), mean SUV, metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion number (TLN) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG), were measured and correlated with patient survival by Mantel-Cox tests and Cox regression analysis. At a median follow-up time of 12.4 months, 41 patients died with a median OS of 12.1 months. Patients with MTV less than 51.5 ml lived nearly three times longer (22 vs 7.1 months) than those with a higher MTV (χ2=21.3, P<0.0001). In a multivariate Cox regression analysis only TLN and MTV were significantly correlated with survival. Those with an MTV burden in the 75th percentile versus the 25th percentile had a hazard ratio of 6.94 (p=0.001). In patients with MTNBC, MTV appears to be a strong prognostic factor. If validated in prospective studies, MTV may be a valuable tool for risk stratification of MTNBC patients in clinical trials and to guide patient management. PMID:27186439

Transition from a multiport technique to a single-port technique for lung cancer surgery: is lymph node dissection inferior using the single-port technique?†.

PubMed

Liu, Chia-Chuan; Shih, Chih-Shiun; Pennarun, Nicolas; Cheng, Chih-Tao

2016-01-01

The feasibility and radicalism of lymph node dissection for lung cancer surgery by a single-port technique has frequently been challenged. We performed a retrospective cohort study to investigate this issue. Two chest surgeons initiated multiple-port thoracoscopic surgery in a 180-bed cancer centre in 2005 and shifted to a single-port technique gradually after 2010. Data, including demographic and clinical information, from 389 patients receiving multiport thoracoscopic lobectomy or segmentectomy and 149 consecutive patients undergoing either single-port lobectomy or segmentectomy for primary non-small-cell lung cancer were retrieved and entered for statistical analysis by multivariable linear regression models and Box-Cox transformed multivariable analysis. The mean number of total dissected lymph nodes in the lobectomy group was 28.5 ± 11.7 for the single-port group versus 25.2 ± 11.3 for the multiport group; the mean number of total dissected lymph nodes in the segmentectomy group was 19.5 ± 10.8 for the single-port group versus 17.9 ± 10.3 for the multiport group. In linear multivariable and after Box-Cox transformed multivariable analyses, the single-port approach was still associated with a higher total number of dissected lymph nodes. The total number of dissected lymph nodes for primary lung cancer surgery by single-port video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) was higher than by multiport VATS in univariable, multivariable linear regression and Box-Cox transformed multivariable analyses. This study confirmed that highly effective lymph node dissection could be achieved through single-port VATS in our setting. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

Late Results of Cox Maze III Procedure in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation Associated with Structural Heart Disease

PubMed Central

Gomes, Gustavo Gir; Gali, Wagner Luis; Sarabanda, Alvaro Valentim Lima; da Cunha, Claudio Ribeiro; Kessler, Iruena Moraes; Atik, Fernando Antibas

2017-01-01

Background Cox-Maze III procedure is one of the surgical techniques used in the surgical treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF). Objectives To determine late results of Cox-Maze III in terms of maintenance of sinus rhythm, and mortality and stroke rates. Methods Between January 2006 and January 2013, 93 patients were submitted to the cut-and-sew Cox-Maze III procedure in combination with structural heart disease repair. Heart rhythm was determined by 24-hour Holter monitoring. Procedural success rates were determined by longitudinal methods and recurrence predictors by multivariate Cox regression models. Results Thirteen patients that obtained hospital discharge alive were excluded due to lost follow-up. The remaining 80 patients were aged 49.9 ± 12 years and 47 (58.7%) of them were female. Involvement of mitral valve and rheumatic heart disease were found in 67 (83.7%) and 63 (78.7%) patients, respectively. Seventy patients (87.5%) had persistent or long-standing persistent AF. Mean follow-up with Holter monitoring was 27.5 months. There were no hospital deaths. Sinus rhythm maintenance rates were 88%, 85.1% and 80.6% at 6 months, 24 months and 36 months, respectively. Predictors of late recurrence of AF were female gender (HR 3.52; 95% CI 1.21-10.25; p = 0.02), coronary artery disease (HR 4.73 95% CI 1.37-16.36; p = 0.01) and greater left atrium diameter (HR 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.09; p = 0.02). Actuarial survival was 98.5% at 12, 24 and 48 months and actuarial freedom from stroke was 100%, 100% and 97.5% in the same time frames. Conclusions The Cox-Maze III procedure, in our experience, is efficacious for sinus rhythm maintenance, with very low late mortality and stroke rates. PMID:28678926

Influence of the Cyclooxygenase-2 Gene -765G/C and -1195G/A Polymorphisms on Development of Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Wu, Guangliang; Cai, Haiyan; Cai, Haobin; Chen, Zhao; Tan, Lei; Qin, Xiurong; Cai, Yefeng

2016-09-01

Many studies have investigated the association between the cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) gene polymorphism and ischemic stroke. However, results of these studies still remain controversial. To better explain the association between COX-2 polymorphisms (-765G/C and -1195G/A) and ischemic stroke risk, a meta-analysis was performed. Relevant studies were identified from 4 Chinese databases (Chinese Biological Medical Literature database, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure database, Chongqing VIP database, and Chinese WANFANG database), PUBMED and EMBASE prior to December 2015. The strength of association between COX-2 polymorphism and ischemic stroke was evaluated by the odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). Inconsistency index (I(2)) and the Cochran's Q statistic were used to check heterogeneity. Publication bias was evaluated by funnel plots and Egger's regression test. A total of 4086 ischemic stroke cases and 4747 controls were identified. Significant association between COX-2 -765G/C polymorphism and the risk of ischemic stroke was found in Brazilians and the African-Americans. The OR of (CC+GC versus GG) for the Brazilians and African-Americans were (6.328, 95% CI = 2.295-17.448) and (1.644, 95% CI = 1.060-2.551). In addition, the recessive model of the Brazilians gave an OR of 3.621 (95% CI: 1.519-8.630). Furthermore, the (GC versus GG) and the allele model of the African-Americans were (OR: 1.615, 95% CI = 1.015-2.572) and (OR: 1.422, 95% CI = 1.033-1.957). Significant association was also observed for COX-2 -1195G/A polymorphism in the subtypes of small vessel disease (SVD) of ischemic stroke. Our study suggests that COX-2 -765G/C and -1195G/A polymorphisms may contribute to susceptibility of ischemic stroke, specifically in Brazilians and the African-Americans, and those of SVD. Copyright © 2016 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identification of subgroups by risk of graft failure after paediatric renal transplantation: application of survival tree models on the ESPN/ERA-EDTA Registry.

PubMed

Lofaro, Danilo; Jager, Kitty J; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Groothoff, Jaap W; Arikoski, Pekka; Hoecker, Britta; Roussey-Kesler, Gwenaelle; Spasojević, Brankica; Verrina, Enrico; Schaefer, Franz; van Stralen, Karlijn J

2016-02-01

Identification of patient groups by risk of renal graft loss might be helpful for accurate patient counselling and clinical decision-making. Survival tree models are an alternative statistical approach to identify subgroups, offering cut-off points for covariates and an easy-to-interpret representation. Within the European Society of Pediatric Nephrology/European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ESPN/ERA-EDTA) Registry data we identified paediatric patient groups with specific profiles for 5-year renal graft survival. Two analyses were performed, including (i) parameters known at time of transplantation and (ii) additional clinical measurements obtained early after transplantation. The identified subgroups were added as covariates in two survival models. The prognostic performance of the models was tested and compared with conventional Cox regression analyses. The first analysis included 5275 paediatric renal transplants. The best 5-year graft survival (90.4%) was found among patients who received a renal graft as a pre-emptive transplantation or after short-term dialysis (<45 days), whereas graft survival was poorest (51.7%) in adolescents transplanted after long-term dialysis (>2.2 years). The Cox model including both pre-transplant factors and tree subgroups had a significantly better predictive performance than conventional Cox regression (P < 0.001). In the analysis including clinical factors, graft survival ranged from 97.3% [younger patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) >30 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and dialysis <20 months] to 34.7% (adolescents with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and dialysis >20 months). Also in this case combining tree findings and clinical factors improved the predictive performance as compared with conventional Cox model models (P < 0.0001). In conclusion, we demonstrated the tree model to be an accurate and attractive tool to predict graft failure for patients with specific characteristics. This may aid the evaluation of individual graft prognosis and thereby the design of measures to improve graft survival in the poor prognosis groups. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Survival analysis: Part I — analysis of time-to-event

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Length of time is a variable often encountered during data analysis. Survival analysis provides simple, intuitive results concerning time-to-event for events of interest, which are not confined to death. This review introduces methods of analyzing time-to-event. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards regression modeling method are described with examples of hypothetical data. PMID:29768911

Reduction of Racial Disparities in Prostate Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-12-01

anti-inflammatory medication, COX-2 inhibitors, aspirin, anti-TNF medications), and other medications of interest (testosterone, finasteride , alpha...compared to control-patients (mean 123) P=0.01. There were 14 (7%) control-patients who had Finasteride use, with an average of 398.6 doses per...individual. None of the prosate cancer patients had prior finasteride use. In a multiple logistic regression model (Table 2), after adjustment for the

Adherence to oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation-a population-based retrospective cohort study linking health information systems in the Valencia region, Spain: a study protocol.

PubMed

Sanfélix-Gimeno, G; Rodríguez-Bernal, C L; Hurtado, I; Baixáuli-Pérez, C; Librero, J; Peiró, S

2015-10-19

Adherence to oral anticoagulation (OAC) treatment, vitamin K antagonists or new oral anticoagulants, is an essential element for effectiveness. Information on adherence to OAC in atrial fibrillation (AF) and the impact of adherence on clinical outcomes using real-world data barely exists. We aim to describe the patterns of adherence to OAC over time in patients with AF, estimate the associated factors and their impact on clinical events, and assess the same issues with conventional measures of primary and secondary adherence-proportion of days covered (PDC) and persistence-in routine clinical practice. This is a population-based retrospective cohort study including all patients with AF treated with OAC from 2010 to date in Valencia, Spain; data will be obtained from diverse electronic records of the Valencia Health Agency. adherence trajectories. (1) primary non-adherence; (2) secondary adherence: (a) PDC, (b) persistence. Clinical outcomes: hospitalisation for haemorrhagic or thromboembolic events and death during follow-up. (1) description of baseline characteristics, adherence patterns (trajectory models or latent class growth analysis models) and conventional adherence measures; (2) logistic or Cox multivariate regression models, to assess the associations between adherence measures and the covariates, and logistic multinomial regression models, to identify characteristics associated with each trajectory; (3) Cox proportional hazard models, to assess the relationship between adherence and clinical outcomes, with propensity score adjustment applied to further control for potential confounders; (4) to estimate the importance of different healthcare levels in the variations of adherence, logistic or Cox multilevel regression models. This study has been approved by the corresponding Clinical Research Ethics Committee. We plan to disseminate the project's findings through peer-reviewed publications and presentations at relevant health conferences. Policy reports will also be prepared in order to promote the translation of our findings into policy and clinical practice. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Corona Enhancement and Mosaic Architecture for Prognosis and Selection Between of Liver Resection Versus Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization in Single Hepatocellular Carcinomas >5 cm Without Extrahepatic Metastases

PubMed Central

Li, Meng; Xin, Yongjie; Fu, Sirui; Liu, Zaiyi; Li, Yong; Hu, Baoshan; Chen, Shuting; Liang, Changhong; Lu, Ligong

2016-01-01

Abstract Corona enhancement and mosaic architecture are 2 radiologic features of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, neither their prognostic values nor their impacts on the selection of liver resection (LR) versus transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) as treatment modalities have been established. We retrospectively analyzed 275 patients with a single HCC lesion >5 cm without extrahepatic metastasis treated with LR or TACE. In LR patients, the overall survival (OS) and time to progression (TTP) were compared between corona enhancement negative (corona−) versus positive (corona+) and mosaic architecture negative (mosaic−) versus positive (mosaic+) patients. Furthermore, by the combination of corona and mosaic, LR patients were divided into negative for both corona and mosaic patterns (LR−/−), positive for only 1 feature (LR+/−), and positive for both (LR+/+); their OS and TTP were compared to those of the TACE group. Cox regression was performed to identify independent factors for OS. In the survival plots for LR, corona− had better OS and TTP than corona+, and mosaic− had better OS than mosaic+. There was no significant difference in TTP between the subgroups. On Cox regression analysis, corona enhancement, but not mosaic architecture, was a significant factor for OS, whereas neither were a significant factor for TTP. In TACE patients, neither corona nor mosaic patterns had significant correlations with OS or TTP. In the whole population, LR−/ and LR+/− subgroups had similar OS, which was better than the LR+/+ and TACE groups. Moreover, LR−/− and LR+/− patients had better TTP than TACE patients, but there were no differences between the LR−/− versus LR+/−, LR−/ versus LR+/+, LR+/− versus LR+/+, and LR+/+ versus TACE groups. On Cox regression analysis, the presence of corona/mosaic patterns was an independent prognostic factor for OS. Our results showed that, for patients with a single HCC >5 cm without extrahepatic metastasis, corona and mosaic patterns are indicators of limited LR efficacy. When both of the features are present, TACE can be used instead of LR with no negative influence on survival. PMID:26765441

Corona Enhancement and Mosaic Architecture for Prognosis and Selection Between of Liver Resection Versus Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization in Single Hepatocellular Carcinomas >5 cm Without Extrahepatic Metastases: An Imaging-Based Retrospective Study.

PubMed

Li, Meng; Xin, Yongjie; Fu, Sirui; Liu, Zaiyi; Li, Yong; Hu, Baoshan; Chen, Shuting; Liang, Changhong; Lu, Ligong

2016-01-01

Corona enhancement and mosaic architecture are 2 radiologic features of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, neither their prognostic values nor their impacts on the selection of liver resection (LR) versus transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) as treatment modalities have been established.We retrospectively analyzed 275 patients with a single HCC lesion >5 cm without extrahepatic metastasis treated with LR or TACE. In LR patients, the overall survival (OS) and time to progression (TTP) were compared between corona enhancement negative (corona-) versus positive (corona+) and mosaic architecture negative (mosaic-) versus positive (mosaic+) patients. Furthermore, by the combination of corona and mosaic, LR patients were divided into negative for both corona and mosaic patterns (LR-/-), positive for only 1 feature (LR+/-), and positive for both (LR+/+); their OS and TTP were compared to those of the TACE group. Cox regression was performed to identify independent factors for OS.In the survival plots for LR, corona- had better OS and TTP than corona+, and mosaic- had better OS than mosaic+. There was no significant difference in TTP between the subgroups. On Cox regression analysis, corona enhancement, but not mosaic architecture, was a significant factor for OS, whereas neither were a significant factor for TTP. In TACE patients, neither corona nor mosaic patterns had significant correlations with OS or TTP. In the whole population, LR-/ and LR+/- subgroups had similar OS, which was better than the LR+/+ and TACE groups. Moreover, LR-/- and LR+/- patients had better TTP than TACE patients, but there were no differences between the LR-/- versus LR+/-, LR-/ versus LR+/+, LR+/- versus LR+/+, and LR+/+ versus TACE groups. On Cox regression analysis, the presence of corona/mosaic patterns was an independent prognostic factor for OS.Our results showed that, for patients with a single HCC >5 cm without extrahepatic metastasis, corona and mosaic patterns are indicators of limited LR efficacy. When both of the features are present, TACE can be used instead of LR with no negative influence on survival.

The Short-term Prognostic Value of the Triglyceride-to-high-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio in Acute Ischemic Stroke

PubMed Central

Wang, Huan; Lei, Leix; Zhang, Han-Qing; Gu, Zheng-Tian; Xing, Fang-Lan; Yan, Fu-Ling

2018-01-01

The triglyceride (TG)-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio (TG/HDL-C) is a simple approach to predicting unfavorable outcomes in cardiovascular disease. The influence of TG/HDL-C on acute ischemic stroke remains elusive. The purpose of this study was to investigate the precise effect of TG/HDL-C on 3-month mortality after acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Patients with AIS were enrolled in the present study from 2011 to 2017. A total of 1459 participants from a single city in China were divided into retrospective training and prospective test cohorts. Medical records were collected periodically to determine the incidence of fatal events. All participants were followed for 3 months. Optimal cutoff values were determined using X-tile software to separate the training cohort patients into higher and lower survival groups based on their lipid levels. A survival analysis was conducted using Kaplan-Meier curves and a Cox proportional hazards regression model. A total of 1459 patients with AIS (median age 68.5 years, 58.5% male) were analyzed. Univariate Cox regression analysis confirmed that TG/HDL-C was a significant prognostic factor for 3-month survival. X-tile identified 0.9 as an optimal cutoff for TG/HDL-C. In the univariate analysis, the prognosis of the TG/HDL-C >0.9 group was markedly superior to that of TG/HDL-C ≤0.9 group (P<0.001). A multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that TG/HDL-C was independently correlated with a reduced risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.24-0.62; P<0.001). These results were confirmed in the 453 patients in the test cohort. A nomogram was constructed to predict 3-month case-fatality, and the c-indexes of predictive accuracy were 0.684 and 0.670 in the training and test cohorts, respectively (P<0.01). The serum TG/HDL-C ratio may be useful for predicting short-term mortality after AIS. PMID:29896437

The Short-term Prognostic Value of the Triglyceride-to-high-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio in Acute Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Deng, Qi-Wen; Li, Shuo; Wang, Huan; Lei, Leix; Zhang, Han-Qing; Gu, Zheng-Tian; Xing, Fang-Lan; Yan, Fu-Ling

2018-06-01

The triglyceride (TG)-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio (TG/HDL-C) is a simple approach to predicting unfavorable outcomes in cardiovascular disease. The influence of TG/HDL-C on acute ischemic stroke remains elusive. The purpose of this study was to investigate the precise effect of TG/HDL-C on 3-month mortality after acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Patients with AIS were enrolled in the present study from 2011 to 2017. A total of 1459 participants from a single city in China were divided into retrospective training and prospective test cohorts. Medical records were collected periodically to determine the incidence of fatal events. All participants were followed for 3 months. Optimal cutoff values were determined using X-tile software to separate the training cohort patients into higher and lower survival groups based on their lipid levels. A survival analysis was conducted using Kaplan-Meier curves and a Cox proportional hazards regression model. A total of 1459 patients with AIS (median age 68.5 years, 58.5% male) were analyzed. Univariate Cox regression analysis confirmed that TG/HDL-C was a significant prognostic factor for 3-month survival. X-tile identified 0.9 as an optimal cutoff for TG/HDL-C. In the univariate analysis, the prognosis of the TG/HDL-C >0.9 group was markedly superior to that of TG/HDL-C ≤0.9 group (P<0.001). A multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that TG/HDL-C was independently correlated with a reduced risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.24-0.62; P<0.001). These results were confirmed in the 453 patients in the test cohort. A nomogram was constructed to predict 3-month case-fatality, and the c-indexes of predictive accuracy were 0.684 and 0.670 in the training and test cohorts, respectively (P<0.01). The serum TG/HDL-C ratio may be useful for predicting short-term mortality after AIS.

Ethnicity matching and outcomes after kidney transplantation in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Pisavadia, Bhavini; Arshad, Adam; Chappelow, Imogen; Nightingale, Peter; Anderson, Benjamin; Nath, Jay; Sharif, Adnan

2018-01-01

Kidneys from non-white donors have inferior outcomes, but it is unclear if ethnicity matching between donors and recipients achieves better post kidney transplant outcomes. We undertook a retrospective, population cohort study utilising UK Transplant Registry data. The cohort comprised adult, kidney-alone, transplant recipients receiving their first kidney transplant between 2003-2015, with data censored at 1st October 2016. We included 27,970 recipients stratified into white (n = 23,215), black (n = 1,679) and south Asian (n = 3,076) ethnicity, with median post-transplant follow-up of 1,676 days (IQR 716-2,869 days). Unadjusted and adjusted Cox regression survival analyses were performed to investigate ethnicity effect on risk for graft loss and mortality. In unadjusted analyses, matched ethnicity between donors-recipients resulted in better outcomes for delayed graft function, one-year creatinine, graft and patient survival but these differed by ethnicity matches. Compared to white-to-white transplants, risk for death-censored graft loss was higher in black-to-black and similar among Asian-to-Asian transplants, but mortality risk was lower for both black-to-black and Asian-to-Asian transplants. In Cox regression models, compared to white donors, we observed higher risk for graft loss with both south Asian (HR 1.38, 95%CI 1.12-1.70, p = 0.003) and black (HR 1.66, 95%CI 1.30-2.11, p<0.001) donated kidneys independent of recipient ethnicity. We observed no mortality difference with south Asian donated kidneys but increased mortality with black donated kidneys (HR 1.68, 95%CI 1.21-2.35, p = 0.002). Matching ethnicities made no significant difference in any Cox regression model. Similar results were observed after stratifying our analysis by living and deceased-donor kidney transplantation. Our data confirm inferior outcomes associated with non-white kidney donors for kidney transplant recipients of any ethnicity in a risk-adjusted model for the United Kingdom population. However, contrary to non-renal transplant literature, we did not identify any survival benefits associated with donor-recipient ethnicity matching.

The prognostic role of body mass index on mortality amongst the middle-aged and elderly: a competing risk analysis.

PubMed

Ghaem Maralani, Haleh; Tai, Bee Choo; Wong, Tien Y; Tai, E Shyong; Li, Jialiang; Wang, Jie Jin; Mitchell, Paul

2014-01-01

To determine the relationship between body mass index (BMI) including its 5-year changes and mortality, and compare the results obtained using Cox and competing risks models. Our study subjects included 2216 persons aged ≥49 years who participated in the Blue Mountains Eye Study, Australia between 1992 and 1994, and returned for further follow-up examinations between 1997 and 1999. We examined the relationship between BMI and mortality using cubic spline. The Cox and competing risks models were used to assess the associations between baseline BMI and its 5-year changes with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Amongst subjects aged ≤70 years, the relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality was U-shaped. For those aged >70 years, an L-shaped relationship was seen with no elevation in risk amongst the overweight/obese. Based on the competing risks model, obesity at baseline was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular death and reduction in BMI at 5-year was linked to an increase risk of cancer death amongst those aged ≤70 years. The cause-specific Cox model showed that reduction in BMI at 5-year was associated with cancer-death regardless of age, and with cardiovascular deaths among subjects aged ≤70 years. Cox regression model showed larger magnitude of effect with wider confidence interval as compared with competing risks model. Conditions associated with obesity are more likely to affect mortality among subjects aged ≤70 years, but not among those aged over 70 years. Cox model shows larger magnitude of effect in comparison with competing risks model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the comparison of population-level estimates of haplotype and nucleotide diversity: a case study using the gene cox1 in animals.

PubMed

Goodall-Copestake, W P; Tarling, G A; Murphy, E J

2012-07-01

Estimates of genetic diversity represent a valuable resource for biodiversity assessments and are increasingly used to guide conservation and management programs. The most commonly reported estimates of DNA sequence diversity in animal populations are haplotype diversity (h) and nucleotide diversity (π) for the mitochondrial gene cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (cox1). However, several issues relevant to the comparison of h and π within and between studies remain to be assessed. We used population-level cox1 data from peer-reviewed publications to quantify the extent to which data sets can be re-assembled, to provide a standardized summary of h and π estimates, to explore the relationship between these metrics and to assess their sensitivity to under-sampling. Only 19 out of 42 selected publications had archived data that could be unambiguously re-assembled; this comprised 127 population-level data sets (n ≥ 15) from 23 animal species. Estimates of h and π were calculated using a 456-base region of cox1 that was common to all the data sets (median h=0.70130, median π=0.00356). Non-linear regression methods and Bayesian information criterion analysis revealed that the most parsimonious model describing the relationship between the estimates of h and π was π=0.0081 h(2). Deviations from this model can be used to detect outliers due to biological processes or methodological issues. Subsampling analyses indicated that samples of n>5 were sufficient to discriminate extremes of high from low population-level cox1 diversity, but samples of n ≥ 25 are recommended for greater accuracy.

COX-2 inhibitor and non-selective NSAID use in those at increased risk of NSAID-related adverse events: a retrospective database study.

PubMed

Gadzhanova, Svetla; Ilomäki, Jenni; Roughead, Elizabeth E

2013-01-01

Adverse events related to analgesic use represent a challenge for optimizing treatment of pain in older people. The aim of this study was to determine whether non-selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NS-NSAID) and cyclo-oxygenase (COX)-2 inhibitor use is appropriately targeted in those with a prior history of gastrointestinal (GI) events, myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke. A retrospective study of pharmacy claims data from the Australian Government Department of Veterans' Affairs was conducted, involving 288,912 veterans aged 55 years and over. Analgesic utilization from 2007 to 2009 was assessed. Three risk cohorts (veterans with prior hospitalization for GI bleed, MI or stroke) and a low-risk cohort were identified. Poisson regression was applied to test for a linear trend over the study period. The prevalence of analgesics dispensed in the overall study population was approximately 34 % between 2007 and 2009. COX-2 inhibitors were more widely dispensed than NS-NSAIDs in all those at risk of NSAID-related adverse events. At the end of 2009, the ratio was 5.1 % to 2.5 % in the GI cohort, 3.6 % to 3.2 % in the MI cohort and 3.6 % to 2.6 % in the stroke cohort. Although COX-2 inhibitors appeared to be preferred over NS-NSAIDs in those with a prior history of GI events, 2.5 % of patients were still using an NS-NSAID at the end of the study period. Consistent with treatment guidelines, in most of these cases, these drugs were co-dispensed with proton pump inhibitors. COX-2 inhibitors were used at slightly higher rates than NS-NSAIDs in those with a prior history of MI or stroke, which is not consistent with guidelines recommending NS-NSAID use.

Late Results of Cox Maze III Procedure in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation Associated with Structural Heart Disease.

PubMed

Gomes, Gustavo Gir; Gali, Wagner Luis; Sarabanda, Alvaro Valentim Lima; Cunha, Claudio Ribeiro da; Kessler, Iruena Moraes; Atik, Fernando Antibas

2017-07-01

Cox-Maze III procedure is one of the surgical techniques used in the surgical treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF). To determine late results of Cox-Maze III in terms of maintenance of sinus rhythm, and mortality and stroke rates. Between January 2006 and January 2013, 93 patients were submitted to the cut-and-sew Cox-Maze III procedure in combination with structural heart disease repair. Heart rhythm was determined by 24-hour Holter monitoring. Procedural success rates were determined by longitudinal methods and recurrence predictors by multivariate Cox regression models. Thirteen patients that obtained hospital discharge alive were excluded due to lost follow-up. The remaining 80 patients were aged 49.9 ± 12 years and 47 (58.7%) of them were female. Involvement of mitral valve and rheumatic heart disease were found in 67 (83.7%) and 63 (78.7%) patients, respectively. Seventy patients (87.5%) had persistent or long-standing persistent AF. Mean follow-up with Holter monitoring was 27.5 months. There were no hospital deaths. Sinus rhythm maintenance rates were 88%, 85.1% and 80.6% at 6 months, 24 months and 36 months, respectively. Predictors of late recurrence of AF were female gender (HR 3.52; 95% CI 1.21-10.25; p = 0.02), coronary artery disease (HR 4.73 95% CI 1.37-16.36; p = 0.01) and greater left atrium diameter (HR 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.09; p = 0.02). Actuarial survival was 98.5% at 12, 24 and 48 months and actuarial freedom from stroke was 100%, 100% and 97.5% in the same time frames. The Cox-Maze III procedure, in our experience, is efficacious for sinus rhythm maintenance, with very low late mortality and stroke rates. A operação de Cox-Maze III é uma das variantes técnicas no tratamento cirúrgico da fibrilação atrial (FA). Estudar os resultados tardios da operação de Cox-Maze III, quanto à eficácia na manutenção de ritmo sinusal e taxas de mortalidade e acidente vascular cerebral (AVC). Entre janeiro de 2006 a janeiro de 2013, 93 pacientes foram submetidos a operação de Cox-Maze III por corte e sutura associada a correção de cardiopatias estruturais. Avaliação do ritmo cardíaco ocorreu por Holter 24 horas. Taxas de sucesso da operação foram estudadas por métodos longitudinais e os preditores de recorrência por análise de regressão de Cox multivariada. Foram excluídos 13 pacientes sobreviventes ao período intra-hospitalar cujo seguimento tardio não foi possível. Os 80 pacientes restantes tinham idade média de 49,9 ± 12 anos e 47 (58,75%) eram do sexo feminino. Acometimento da valva mitral ocorreu em 67 pacientes (83,7%). Valvopatia reumática ocorreu em 63 (78,7%). Setenta pacientes (87,5%) tinham fibrilação atrial persistente ou persistente de longa duração. O tempo médio de seguimento clínico com avaliação de Holter foi de 27,5 meses. Não houve óbitos intra-hospitalares. As taxas de manutenção de ritmo sinusal foram 88%, 85,1% e 80,6% aos 6 meses, 24 meses e 36 meses, respectivamente. Os preditores de recorrência tardia foram sexo feminino (RR 3,52; IC 95% 1,21-10,25; p = 0,02), doença arterial coronária (RR 4,73; IC 95% 1,37-16,36; p = 0,01) e maior diâmetro de átrio esquerdo (RR 1,05; IC 95% 1,01-1,09; p = 0,02). A sobrevida atuarial aos 12, 24 e 48 meses foi de 98,5% e as taxas atuariais livres de AVC nos mesmos períodos de 100%, 100% e 97,5%. A operação de Cox-Maze III, na nossa experiência, é eficaz na manutenção do ritmo sinusal, com baixíssimos índices de mortalidade e de AVC tardios.

Impact of Surgical Approach on Long-term Survival in Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Patients With or Without Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy.

PubMed

Noordman, Bo Jan; van Klaveren, David; van Berge Henegouwen, Mark I; Wijnhoven, Bas P L; Gisbertz, Suzanne S; Lagarde, Sjoerd M; van der Gaast, Ate; Hulshof, Maarten C C M; Biermann, Katharina; Steyerberg, Ewout W; van Lanschot, J Jan B

2018-05-01

To compare overall survival in patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma who underwent transhiatal esophagectomy (THE) with limited lymphadenectomy or transthoracic esophagectomy (TTE) with extended lymphadenectomy with or without neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT). The application of neoadjuvant therapy might change the association between the extent of lymphadenectomy and survival in patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma. This may influence the choice of surgical approach in patients treated with nCRT. Patients with potentially curable subcarinal esophageal adenocarcinoma treated with surgery alone or nCRT followed by surgery in 7 centers were included. The effect of surgical approach on overall survival, differentiated by the addition or omission of nCRT, was analyzed using a multivariable Cox regression model that included well-known prognostic factors and factors that might have influenced the choice of surgical approach. In total, 701 patients were included, of whom 318 had TTE with extended lymphadenectomy and 383 had THE with limited lymphadenectomy. TTE had differential effects on survival (P for interaction = 0.02), with a more favorable prognostic effect in patients who were treated with surgery alone [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-1.03]. This association was statistically significant in a subgroup of patients with 1 to 8 positive lymph nodes in the resection specimen (HR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.43-0.90). The favorable prognostic effect of TTE over THE was absent in the nCRT and surgery group (HR = 1.16, 95% CI 0.80-1.66) and in the subgroup of nCRT patients with 1 to 8 positive lymph nodes in the resection specimen (HR = 1.00, 95% CI 0.61-1.68). Compared to surgery alone, the addition of nCRT may reduce the need for TTE with extended lymphadenectomy to improve long-term survival in patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma.

Novel harmonic regularization approach for variable selection in Cox's proportional hazards model.

PubMed

Chu, Ge-Jin; Liang, Yong; Wang, Jia-Xuan

2014-01-01

Variable selection is an important issue in regression and a number of variable selection methods have been proposed involving nonconvex penalty functions. In this paper, we investigate a novel harmonic regularization method, which can approximate nonconvex Lq  (1/2 < q < 1) regularizations, to select key risk factors in the Cox's proportional hazards model using microarray gene expression data. The harmonic regularization method can be efficiently solved using our proposed direct path seeking approach, which can produce solutions that closely approximate those for the convex loss function and the nonconvex regularization. Simulation results based on the artificial datasets and four real microarray gene expression datasets, such as real diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DCBCL), the lung cancer, and the AML datasets, show that the harmonic regularization method can be more accurate for variable selection than existing Lasso series methods.

Cerebral autoregulation in the preterm newborn using near-infrared spectroscopy: a comparison of time-domain and frequency-domain analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eriksen, Vibeke R.; Hahn, Gitte H.; Greisen, Gorm

2015-03-01

The aim was to compare two conventional methods used to describe cerebral autoregulation (CA): frequency-domain analysis and time-domain analysis. We measured cerebral oxygenation (as a surrogate for cerebral blood flow) and mean arterial blood pressure (MAP) in 60 preterm infants. In the frequency domain, outcome variables were coherence and gain, whereas the cerebral oximetry index (COx) and the regression coefficient were the outcome variables in the time domain. Correlation between coherence and COx was poor. The disagreement between the two methods was due to the MAP and cerebral oxygenation signals being in counterphase in three cases. High gain and high coherence may arise spuriously when cerebral oxygenation decreases as MAP increases; hence, time-domain analysis appears to be a more robust-and simpler-method to describe CA.

Elevated risk of incarceration among street-involved youth who initiate drug dealing.

PubMed

Hoy, Carly; Barker, Brittany; Regan, Jackie; Dong, Huiru; Richardson, Lindsey; Kerr, Thomas; DeBeck, Kora

2016-11-22

Street-involved youth are known to be an economically vulnerable population that commonly resorts to risky activities such as drug dealing to generate income. While incarceration is common among people who use illicit drugs and associated with increased economic vulnerability, interventions among this population remain inadequate. Although previous research has documented the role of incarceration in further entrenching youth in both the criminal justice system and street life, less is known whether recent incarceration predicts initiating drug dealing among vulnerable youth. This study examines the relationship between incarceration and drug dealing initiation among street-involved youth. Between September 2005 and November 2014, data were collected through the At-Risk Youth Study, a cohort of street-involved youth who use illicit drugs, in Vancouver, Canada. An extended Cox model with time-dependent variables was used to examine the relationship between recent incarceration and initiation into drug dealing, controlling for relevant confounders. Among 1172 youth enrolled, only 194 (16.6%) were drug dealing naïve at baseline and completed at least one additional study visit to facilitate the assessment of drug dealing initiation. Among this sample, 56 (29%) subsequently initiated drug dealing. In final multivariable Cox regression analysis, recent incarceration was significantly associated with initiating drug dealing (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.31; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-4.42), after adjusting for potential confounders. Measures of recent incarceration lagged to the prior study follow-up were not found to predict initiation of drug dealing (hazard ratio = 1.50; 95% CI 0.66-3.42). These findings suggest that among this study sample, incarceration does not appear to significantly propel youth to initiate drug dealing. However, the initiation of drug dealing among youth coincides with an increased risk of incarceration and their consequent vulnerability to the significant harms associated therein. Given that existing services tailored to street-involved youth are inadequate, evidence-based interventions should be invested and scaled up as a public health priority.

Isolation and characterization of the pea cytochrome c oxidase Vb gene.

PubMed

Kubo, Nakao; Arimura, Shin-Ichi; Tsutsumi, Nobuhiro; Kadowaki, Koh-Ichi; Hirai, Masashi

2006-11-01

Three copies of the gene that encodes cytochrome c oxidase subunit Vb were isolated from the pea (PscoxVb-1, PscoxVb-2, and PscoxVb-3). Northern Blot and reverse transcriptase-PCR analyses suggest that all 3 genes are transcribed in the pea. Each pea coxVb gene has an N-terminal extended sequence that can encode a mitochondrial targeting signal, called a presequence. The localization of green fluorescent proteins fused with the presequence strongly suggests the targeting of pea COXVb proteins to mitochondria. Each pea coxVb gene has 5 intron sites within the coding region. These are similar to Arabidopsis and rice, although the intron lengths vary greatly. A phylogenetic analysis of coxVb suggests the occurrence of gene duplication events during angiosperm evolution. In particular, 2 duplication events might have occurred in legumes, grasses, and Solanaceae. A comparison of amino acid sequences in COXVb or its counterpart shows the conservation of several amino acids within a zinc finger motif. Interestingly, a homology search analysis showed that bacterial protein COG4391 and a mitochondrial complex I 13 kDa subunit also have similar amino acid compositions around this motif. Such similarity might reflect evolutionary relationships among the 3 proteins.

The Cox proportional Hazard model on duration of birth process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuryandari, Triastuti; Haryatmi Kartiko, Sri; Danardono

2018-05-01

The duration of birth process, which is measured from the birth sign until baby born, is one important factor to the whole outcome of delivery process. There is a method of birth process that given relaxing and gentle treatment to the mother caled as gentlebirth. Gentlebirth is a method of birth process that combines brain science, birth science and technology to empower positive birth without pain. However the effect of method to the duration of birth process is still need empirical investigations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to analyze the duration of birth process using the appropriate statistical methods for durational data, survival data or time to event data. Since there are many variables or factor that may affect the duration, a regression model is considerated. The flexibility of the Cox Proportional Hazard Model in the sense that there is no distributional assumption required, makes the Cox Model as the appropriate model and method to analyze the duration birth process. It is concluded that the Gentlebirth method affects on duration of birth process, with Hazard Ratio of 2.073, showing that the duration of birth process with gentlebirth method is faster than the other method.

Optimization of Acid Orange 7 Degradation in Heterogeneous Fenton-like Reaction Using Fe3-xCoxO4 Catalyst

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, M. Z.; Alrozi, R.; Zubir, N. A.; Bashah, N. A.; Ali, S. A. Md; Ibrahim, N.

2018-05-01

The oxidation process such as heterogeneous Fenton and/or Fenton-like reactions is considered as an effective and efficient method for treatment of dye degradation. In this study, the degradation of Acid Orange 7 (AO7) was investigated by using Fe3-xCoxO4 as a heterogeneous Fenton-like catalyst. Response surface methodology (RSM) was used to optimize the operational parameters condition and the interaction of two or more parameters. The parameter studies were catalyst dosage (X1 ), pH (X2 ) and H2O2 concentration (X3 ) towards AO7 degradation. Based on analysis of variance (ANOVA), the derived quadratic polynomial model was significant whereby the predicted values matched the experimental values with regression coefficient of R2 = 0.9399. The optimum condition for AO7 degradation was obtained at catalyst dosage of 0.84 g/L, pH of 3 and H2O2 concentration of 46.70 mM which resulted in 86.30% removal of AO7 dye. These findings present new insights into the influence of operational parameters in the heterogeneous Fenton-like oxidation of AO7 using Fe3-xCoxO4 catalyst.

The effect of first chromosome long arm duplication on survival of endometrial carcinoma.

PubMed

Sever, Erman; Doğer, Emek; Çakıroğlu, Yiğit; Sünnetçi, Deniz; Çine, Naci; Savlı, Hakan; Yücesoy, İzzet

2014-12-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of first chromosome long arm duplication (dup(1q)) in cases with endometrial carcinoma detected with array based comperative genomic hybridization (aCGH) on survival from the cancer. A total of 53 patients with the diagnosis of endometrial carcinom due to endometrial biopsy and who have been operated for this reason have been allocated in the study. Frozen section biopsy and staging surgery have been performed for all the cases. Samples obtained from the tumoral mass have been investigated for chromosomal aberrations with aCGH method. Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression analysis have been performed for survival analysis. Among 53 cases with endometrial carcinomas, dup(1q) was diagnosed in 14 (26.4%) of the cases. For the patient group that has been followed-up for 24 months (3-33 months), dup(1q) (p=.01), optimal cytoreduction (p<.001), lymph node positivity (p=.006), tumor stage >1 (p=.006) and presence of high risk tumor were the factors that were associated with survival. Cox-regression analysis has revealed that optimal cytoreduction was the most important prognostic factor (p=.02). Presence of 1q duplication can be used as a prognostic factor in the preoperative period.

The effect of first chromosome long arm duplication on survival of endometrial carcinoma

PubMed Central

Sever, Erman; Doğer, Emek; Çakıroğlu, Yiğit; Sünnetçi, Deniz; Çine, Naci; Savlı, Hakan; Yücesoy, İzzet

2014-01-01

Objective: The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of first chromosome long arm duplication (dup(1q)) in cases with endometrial carcinoma detected with array based comperative genomic hybridization (aCGH) on survival from the cancer. Materials and Methods: A total of 53 patients with the diagnosis of endometrial carcinom due to endometrial biopsy and who have been operated for this reason have been allocated in the study. Frozen section biopsy and staging surgery have been performed for all the cases. Samples obtained from the tumoral mass have been investigated for chromosomal aberrations with aCGH method. Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression analysis have been performed for survival analysis. Results: Among 53 cases with endometrial carcinomas, dup(1q) was diagnosed in 14 (26.4%) of the cases. For the patient group that has been followed-up for 24 months (3-33 months), dup(1q) (p=.01), optimal cytoreduction (p<.001), lymph node positivity (p=.006), tumor stage >1 (p=.006) and presence of high risk tumor were the factors that were associated with survival. Cox-regression analysis has revealed that optimal cytoreduction was the most important prognostic factor (p=.02). Conclusion: Presence of 1q duplication can be used as a prognostic factor in the preoperative period. PMID:28913021

Mastl overexpression is associated with epithelial to mesenchymal transition and predicts a poor clinical outcome in gastric cancer.

PubMed

Sun, Xian-Jun; Li, Yan-Liang; Wang, Long-Gang; Liu, Li-Qing; Ma, Heng; Hou, Wen-Hong; Yu, Jin-Ming

2017-12-01

Microtubule-associated serine/threonine kinase like (Mastl) is deregulated in a number of types of human malignancy and may be a kinase target for cancer treatment. The aim of the present study was to determine the Mastl expression in gastric cancer and to clarify its clinical and prognostic significance. Immunohistochemistry was performed on a cohort of 126 postoperative gastric cancer samples to detect the expression of Mastl and two epithelial to mesenchymal transition (EMT) markers, epithelial-cadherin and Vimentin. The χ 2 test, Kaplan-Meier estimator analysis and Cox's regression model were used to analyze the data. Upregulated Mastl protein expression was observed in the gastric cancer tissues compared with that in the adjacent non-cancerous gastric tissues. Increased Mastl expression was identified in 54/126 (42.9%) gastric cancer samples, and was significantly associated with lymph node metastasis, tumor relapse, EMT status and poor overall survival. Additional analysis demonstrated that the Mastl expression level stratified the patient outcome in stage III, but not stage II tumor subgroups. Cox's regression analysis revealed that increased Mastl expression was an independent prognostic factor for patients with gastric cancer. Mastl expression may be a valuable prognostic marker and a potential target for patients with gastric cancer.

White donor, younger donor and double lung transplant are associated with better survival in sarcoidosis patients.

PubMed

Salamo, Oriana; Roghaee, Shiva; Schweitzer, Michael D; Mantero, Alejandro; Shafazand, Shirin; Campos, Michael; Mirsaeidi, Mehdi

2018-05-03

Sarcoidosis commonly affects the lung. Lung transplantation (LT) is required when there is a severe and refractory involvement. We compared post-transplant survival rates of sarcoidosis patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We also explored whether the race and age of the donor, and double lung transplant have any effect on the survival in the post transplant setting. We analyzed 9,727 adult patients with sarcoidosis, COPD, and IPF who underwent LT worldwide between 2005-2015 based on United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database. Survival rates were compared with Kaplan-Meier, and risk factors were investigated by Cox-regression analysis. 469 (5%) were transplanted because of sarcoidosis, 3,688 (38%) for COPD and 5,570 (57%) for IPF. Unadjusted survival analysis showed a better post-transplant survival rate for patients with sarcoidosis (p < 0.001, Log-rank test). In Cox-regression analysis, double lung transplant and white race of the lung donor showed to have a significant survival advantage. Since double lung transplant, those who are younger and have lower Lung Allocation Score (LAS) at the time of transplant have a survival advantage, we suggest double lung transplant as the procedure of choice, especially in younger sarcoidosis subjects and with lower LAS scores.

Nomogram Prediction of Overall Survival After Curative Irradiation for Uterine Cervical Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seo, YoungSeok; Yoo, Seong Yul; Kim, Mi-Sook

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop a nomogram capable of predicting the probability of 5-year survival after radical radiotherapy (RT) without chemotherapy for uterine cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed 549 patients that underwent radical RT for uterine cervical cancer between March 1994 and April 2002 at our institution. Multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression was performed and this Cox model was used as the basis for the devised nomogram. The model was internally validated for discrimination and calibration by bootstrap resampling. Results: By multivariate regression analysis, the model showed that age, hemoglobin levelmore » before RT, Federation Internationale de Gynecologie Obstetrique (FIGO) stage, maximal tumor diameter, lymph node status, and RT dose at Point A significantly predicted overall survival. The survival prediction model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination. The bootstrap-corrected concordance index was 0.67. The predictive ability of the nomogram proved to be superior to FIGO stage (p = 0.01). Conclusions: The devised nomogram offers a significantly better level of discrimination than the FIGO staging system. In particular, it improves predictions of survival probability and could be useful for counseling patients, choosing treatment modalities and schedules, and designing clinical trials. However, before this nomogram is used clinically, it should be externally validated.« less

Hierarchy of higher-level physical functions: a longitudinal investigation on a nationally representative population of community-dwelling middle-aged and elderly persons.

PubMed

Yeh, Chih-Jung; Wang, Ching-Yi; Tang, Pei-Fang; Lee, Meng-Chih; Lin, Hui-Sheng; Chen, Hui-Ya

2012-01-01

Understanding the hierarchy of higher-level physical functions to infer disability level (mild, moderate or severe) is essential for the precise targeting of preventive interventions and has been examined previously in a cross-sectional study. Based on longitudinal data, this study evaluated the hierarchy of higher-level physical functions. Data from a cohort of 2729 community-dwelling persons aged over 50 with no initial disability were drawn from the "Survey of Health and Living Status of the Elderly in Taiwan" from 1996 through 2007. The three-level hierarchy of eight chosen activities was examined by the median ages to disability onset with survival analyses and by Cox regressions, which examined the effects of sex and age on the development of this hierarchy. The progression of incident disability was as follows: mild level-running, carrying weight, and squatting; moderate level-climbing stairs, walking, and standing; and severe level-grasping and raising arms up. Women and older persons were at greater risk of developing more severe levels of disability. Another Cox regression with one index activity from each hierarchical level revealed similar results. The three-level hierarchy of higher-level physical functions has been validated longitudinally, suggesting rich research and clinical implications.

Assessing the prediction accuracy of a cure model for censored survival data with long-term survivors: Application to breast cancer data.

PubMed

Asano, Junichi; Hirakawa, Akihiro

2017-01-01

The Cox proportional hazards cure model is a survival model incorporating a cure rate with the assumption that the population contains both uncured and cured individuals. It contains a logistic regression for the cure rate, and a Cox regression to estimate the hazard for uncured patients. A single predictive model for both the cure and hazard can be developed by using a cure model that simultaneously predicts the cure rate and hazards for uncured patients; however, model selection is a challenge because of the lack of a measure for quantifying the predictive accuracy of a cure model. Recently, we developed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for determining the cure rate in a cure model (Asano et al., 2014), but the hazards measure for uncured patients was not resolved. In this article, we propose novel C-statistics that are weighted by the patients' cure status (i.e., cured, uncured, or censored cases) for the cure model. The operating characteristics of the proposed C-statistics and their confidence interval were examined by simulation analyses. We also illustrate methods for predictive model selection and for further interpretation of variables using the proposed AUCs and C-statistics via application to breast cancer data.

Prediction of non-biochemical recurrence rate after radical prostatectomy in a Japanese cohort: development of a postoperative nomogram.

PubMed

Okubo, Hidenori; Ohori, Makoto; Ohno, Yoshio; Nakashima, Jun; Inoue, Rie; Nagao, Toshitaka; Tachibana, Masaaki

2014-05-01

To develop a nomogram based on postoperative factors and prostate-specific antigen levels to predict the non-biochemical recurrence rate after radical prostatectomy ina Japanese cohort. A total of 606 Japanese patients with T1-3N0M0 prostate cancer who underwent radical prostatectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection at Tokyo Medical University hospital from 2000 to 2010 were studied. A nomogram was constructed based on Cox hazard regression analysis evaluating the prognostic significance of serum prostate-specific antigen and pathological factors in the radical prostatectomy specimens. The discriminating ability of the nomogram was assessed by the concordance index (C-index), and the predicted and actual outcomes were compared with a bootstrapped calibration plot. With a mean follow up of 60.0 months, a total of 187 patients (30.9%) experienced biochemical recurrence, with a 5-year non-biochemical recurrence rate of 72.3%. Based on a Cox hazard regression model, a nomogram was constructed to predict non-biochemical recurrence using serum prostate-specific antigen level and pathological features in radical prostatectomy specimens. The concordance index was 0.77, and the calibration plots appeared to be accurate. The postoperative nomogram described here can provide valuable information regarding the need for adjuvant/salvage radiation or hormonal therapy in patients after radical prostatectomy.

Expression of multi-drug resistance-related genes MDR3 and MRP as prognostic factors in clinical liver cancer patients.

PubMed

Yu, Zheng; Peng, Sun; Hong-Ming, Pan; Kai-Feng, Wang

2012-01-01

To investigate the expression of multi-drug resistance-related genes, MDR3 and MRP, in clinical specimens of primary liver cancer and their potential as prognostic factors in liver cancer patients. A total of 26 patients with primary liver cancer were enrolled. The expression of MDR3 and MRP genes was measured by real-time PCR and the association between gene expression and the prognosis of patients was analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method and COX regression model. This study showed that increases in MDR3 gene expression were identified in cholangiocellular carcinoma, cirrhosis and HBsAg-positive patients, while MRP expression increased in hepatocellular carcinoma, non-cirrhosis and HBsAg-negative patients. Moreover, conjugated bilirubin and total bile acid in the serum were significantly reduced in patients with high MRP expression compared to patients with low expression. The overall survival tended to be longer in patients with high MDR3 and MRP expression compared to the control group. MRP might be an independent prognostic factor in patients with liver cancer by COX regression analysis. MDR3 and MRP may play important roles in liver cancer patients as prognostic factors and their underlying mechanisms in liver cancer are worthy of further investigation.

The Poor Survival among Pulmonary Tuberculosis Patients in Chiapas, Mexico: The Case of Los Altos Region

PubMed Central

Nájera-Ortiz, J. C.; Sánchez-Pérez, H. J.; Ochoa-Díaz-López, H.; Leal-Fernández, G.; Navarro-Giné, A.

2012-01-01

Objective. To analyse survival in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and factors associated with such survival. Design. Study of a cohort of patients aged over 14 years diagnosed with PTB from January 1, 1998 to July 31, 2005. During 2004–2006 a home visit was made to each patient and, during 2008-2009, they were visited again. During these visits a follow-up interview was administered; when the patient had died, a verbal autopsy was conducted with family members. Statistical analysis consisted of survival tests, Kaplan-Meier log-rank test and Cox regression. Results. Of 305 studied patients, 68 had died due to PTB by the time of the first evaluation, 237 were followed-up for a second evaluation, and 10 of them had died of PTB. According to the Cox regression, age (over 45 years) and treatment duration (under six months) were associated with a poorer survival. When treatment duration was excluded, the association between poorer survival with age persisted, whereas with having been treated via DOTS strategy, was barely significant. Conclusions. In the studied area it is necessary that patients receive a complete treatment scheme, and to give priority to patients aged over 45 years. PMID:22701170

Abdominal Circumference Versus Body Mass Index as Predictors of Lower Extremity Overuse Injury Risk.

PubMed

Nye, Nathaniel S; Kafer, Drew S; Olsen, Cara; Carnahan, David H; Crawford, Paul F

2018-02-01

Abdominal circumference (AC) is superior to body mass index (BMI) as a measure of risk for various health outcomes. Our objective was to compare AC and BMI as predictors of lower extremity overuse injury (LEOI) risk. Retrospective review of electronic medical records of 79,868 US Air Force personnel over a 7-year period (2005-2011) for incidence of new LEOI. Subjects were stratified by BMI and AC. Injury risk for BMI/AC subgroups was calculated using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional-hazards regression. Receiver operating characteristic curves with area under the curve were used to compare each model's predictive value. Cox proportional-hazards regression showed significant risk association between elevated BMI, AC, and all injury types, with hazard ratios ranging 1.230-3.415 for obese versus normal BMI and 1.665-3.893 for high-risk versus low-risk AC (P < .05 for all measures). Receiver operating characteristic curves with area under the curve showed equivalent performance between BMI and AC for predicting all injury types. However, the combined model (AC and BMI) showed improved predictive ability over either model alone for joint injury, overall LEOI, and most strongly for osteoarthritis. Although AC and BMI alone performed similarly well, a combined approach using BMI and AC together improved risk estimation for LEOI.

Changes in survival patterns in urban Chinese patients with liver cancer

PubMed Central

Hao, Xi-Shan; Chen, Ke-Xin; Wang, Peizhong Peter; Rohan, Tom

2003-01-01

AIM: To examine the survival patterns and determinants of primary liver cancer in a geographically defined Chinese population. METHODS: Primary liver cancer cases (n = 13685) diagnosed between 1981 and 2000 were identified by the Tianjin Cancer Registry. Age-adjusted and age-specific incidence rates were examined in both males and females. Proportional hazards (Cox) regression was utilized to explore the effects of time of diagnosis, sex, age, occupation, residence, and hospital of diagnosis on survival. RESULTS: Crude and age-adjusted incidence rates in the study period were: 27.4/100000 and 26.3/100000 in males; and 11.5/100000 and 10.4/100000 in females, respectively. Cox regression analyses indicated that there was a significant improvement in survival rates over time. Industrial workers and older people had relatively poor survival rates. The hospital in which the liver cancer was diagnosed was a statistically significant predictor of survival; patients diagnosed in city hospitals were more likely to have better survival than those diagnosed in community/district hospitals. CONCLUSION: Patients diagnosed in recent years appeared to have a better outcome than those diagnosed in early times. There were also significant survival disparities with respect to occupation and hospital of diagnosis, which suggest that socioeconomic status may play an important role in determining prognosis. PMID:12800226

Association Between Metabolic Syndrome and the Serum Uric Acid: a Cohort Study.

PubMed

Ren, Ping; Gao, Mengna

2018-05-01

Metabolic syndrome (MS) consists of a cluster of metabolic diseases, and the association between serum uric acid (SUA) and MS has recently been reported in several studies; however, whether SUA is a susceptibility or risk biomarker for the development of MS among Chinese adults is unclear. This study was designed to investigate the relationship between SUA and MS. This study involved 4,988 subjects who were followed up for 9 years. Cox regression model was used to analyze the risk factors of MS. Of the 4,988 subjects, 1,192 subjects developed MS over 9 years of follow-up. The overall 9-year cumulative incidence of MS was 23.9%, ranging from 16.6% in quartile 1 to 35.1% in quartile 4 (p for trend < 0.001). Cox regression analyses indicated that SUA was significantly associated with incident MS (HR comparing quartile 2, 3, and 4 vs. quartile 1, 1.11, 1.33, and 1.78, respectively; p < 0.001) after adjusting for multiple associated parameters. In receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the cutoff levels for SUA to predict incident MS were 350 μmol/L and 268 μmol/L in males and females, respectively. The results of this study demonstrated that high SUA concentrations may increase the risk of MS among Chinese adults.

Predictors for spontaneous pregnancy after microsurgical subinguinal varicocelectomy: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Zhang, Jian-Wei; Xu, Quan-Quan; Kuang, You-Lin; Wang, Yan; Xu, Feng; Tian, Yu-Dong

2017-06-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the possible preoperative predictors of spontaneous pregnancy (SPR) for infertile males with varicocele after microsurgical subinguinal varicocelectomy (MVL) performed in two medical centers in a prospective cohort study. A total of 120 males with varicocele that underwent MVL between June 2013 and June 2014 in two medical centers were documented. Related data, including male and female partner age, male body mass index (BMI), female BMI, preoperative semen parameters, hormone levels, testicular volume, grade and side of varicocele, were collected and analyzed. The follow-up assessment was also conducted within a 2-year period after the surgery. The outcome measure was SPR within the 2-year follow-up reported. The possible determinants of SPR were also analyzed and indentified using Cox regression analysis. Of the 110 patients that accomplished the 2-year follow-up, 42 patients reported pregnancy outcome. Using Cox regression analysis, total motile sperm count [TMC; RR (95% CI) = 1.362 (1.120-1.560), p = 0.003] and follicle-stimulating hormone [FSH; RR (95% CI) = 0.726 (0.541-0.980), p = 0.020] levels posed significant determinants for SPR. Our study indicated that males who underwent MVL with higher TMC and lower FSH preoperatively have higher possibility of pregnancy postoperatively.

Marginal regression analysis of recurrent events with coarsened censoring times.

PubMed

Hu, X Joan; Rosychuk, Rhonda J

2016-12-01

Motivated by an ongoing pediatric mental health care (PMHC) study, this article presents weakly structured methods for analyzing doubly censored recurrent event data where only coarsened information on censoring is available. The study extracted administrative records of emergency department visits from provincial health administrative databases. The available information of each individual subject is limited to a subject-specific time window determined up to concealed data. To evaluate time-dependent effect of exposures, we adapt the local linear estimation with right censored survival times under the Cox regression model with time-varying coefficients (cf. Cai and Sun, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 2003, 30, 93-111). We establish the pointwise consistency and asymptotic normality of the regression parameter estimator, and examine its performance by simulation. The PMHC study illustrates the proposed approach throughout the article. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Collagen Triple Helix Repeat Containing-1 (CTHRC1) Expression in Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma (OSCC): Prognostic Value and Clinico-Pathological Implications

PubMed Central

Lee, Chia Ee; Vincent-Chong, Vui King; Ramanathan, Anand; Kallarakkal, Thomas George; Karen-Ng, Lee Peng; Ghani, Wan Maria Nabillah; Rahman, Zainal Ariff Abdul; Ismail, Siti Mazlipah; Abraham, Mannil Thomas; Tay, Keng Kiong; Mustafa, Wan Mahadzir Wan; Cheong, Sok Ching; Zain, Rosnah Binti

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Collagen Triple Helix Repeat Containing 1 (CTHRC1) is a protein often found to be over-expressed in various types of human cancers. However, correlation between CTHRC1 expression level with clinico-pathological characteristics and prognosis in oral cancer remains unclear. Therefore, this study aimed to determine mRNA and protein expression of CTHRC1 in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) and to evaluate the clinical and prognostic impact of CTHRC1 in OSCC. METHODS: In this study, mRNA and protein expression of CTHRC1 in OSCCs were determined by quantitative PCR and immunohistochemistry, respectively. The association between CTHRC1 and clinico-pathological parameters were evaluated by univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analyses. Correlation between CTHRC1 protein expressions with survival were analysed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models. RESULTS: Current study demonstrated CTHRC1 was significantly overexpressed at the mRNA level in OSCC. Univariate analyses indicated a high-expression of CTHRC1 that was significantly associated with advanced stage pTNM staging, tumour size ≥ 4 cm and positive lymph node metastasis (LNM). However, only positive LNM remained significant after adjusting with other confounder factors in multivariate logistic regression analyses. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and Cox model demonstrated that patients with high-expression of CTHRC1 protein were associated with poor prognosis and is an independent prognostic factor in OSCC. CONCLUSION: This study indicated that over-expression of CTHRC1 potentially as an independent predictor for positive LNM and poor prognosis in OSCC. PMID:26664254

Variability in CKD stage in outpatients followed in two large renal clinics.

PubMed

Sikaneta, Tabo; Abdolell, Mohamed; Taskapan, Hulya; Roscoe, Janet; Fung, Jason; Nagai, Gordon; Ting, Robert H; Ng, Paul; Wu, George; Oreopoulos, Dimitrios; Tam, Paul Y

2012-10-01

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is staged by glomerular filtration rate (GFR). CKD stages sometimes vary between routine office visits, and it is unknown if this impacts renal and patient survival separately from a cross-sectional CKD stage value. We quantified and categorized CKD stage variability in a large group of outpatients and correlated this with clinical and demographic features and with renal and patient survival. All estimated GFRs were staged in the first observation period. CKD stages were then categorized as static, improving, worsening, or fluctuating. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify clinical variables associated with CKD stage variability. Death and dialysis progression rates were then collected and analyzed using Cox proportional regression. During a 1.1-year observation period, 1,262 patients (mean age 71.25 years) had a mean 5 eGFR's. CKD stages were static in 60.4%, worsened in 14.4%, improved in 7.4%, and fluctuated in 17.2% of patients. Secondary analysis revealed heavy proteinuria and East Asian ethnicity to be negatively, and diabetes mellitus and previous acute kidney injury to be positively associated with improving CKD stages. Cox proportional regression of 902 patients analyzed 2.3 years later revealed a negative association with improving CKD stage and subsequent need for dialysis. CKD stage changed in 40% of 1,262 elderly patients when determined 5 times in just over 1 year. Improving CKD stage was the only variability pattern significantly associated with any of the clinical outcomes when assessed 2.3 years later, being unlikely to be linked with subsequent need for dialysis.

Prognostic model for survival in patients with early stage cervical cancer.

PubMed

Biewenga, Petra; van der Velden, Jacobus; Mol, Ben Willem J; Stalpers, Lukas J A; Schilthuis, Marten S; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Burger, Matthé P M; Buist, Marrije R

2011-02-15

In the management of early stage cervical cancer, knowledge about the prognosis is critical. Although many factors have an impact on survival, their relative importance remains controversial. This study aims to develop a prognostic model for survival in early stage cervical cancer patients and to reconsider grounds for adjuvant treatment. A multivariate Cox regression model was used to identify the prognostic weight of clinical and histological factors for disease-specific survival (DSS) in 710 consecutive patients who had surgery for early stage cervical cancer (FIGO [International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics] stage IA2-IIA). Prognostic scores were derived by converting the regression coefficients for each prognostic marker and used in a score chart. The discriminative capacity was expressed as the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic. The 5-year DSS was 92%. Tumor diameter, histological type, lymph node metastasis, depth of stromal invasion, lymph vascular space invasion, and parametrial extension were independently associated with DSS and were included in a Cox regression model. This prognostic model, corrected for the 9% overfit shown by internal validation, showed a fair discriminative capacity (AUC, 0.73). The derived score chart predicting 5-year DSS showed a good discriminative capacity (AUC, 0.85). In patients with early stage cervical cancer, DSS can be predicted with a statistical model. Models, such as that presented here, should be used in clinical trials on the effects of adjuvant treatments in high-risk early cervical cancer patients, both to stratify and to include patients. Copyright © 2010 American Cancer Society.

Cost-effectiveness of staff and workload profiles in retaining patients on antiretroviral therapy in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

PubMed

Vella, Venanzio; Govender, Thiloshini; Dlamini, Sicelo S; Moodley, Indres; David, Verona; Taylor, Myra; Jinabhai, Champaklal C

2011-09-01

There is paucity of information on the cost-effectiveness of delivery strategies to retain patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and this study tries to fill this gap. The analysis is based on a representative sample of 2835 patients attending 32 ART sites in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa. Extended Cox regression and Kaplan Meier were used to estimate the transition probabilities to remain on ART among patients who attended sites with different staff and workload profiles. Annual costs per patient-year of observation for these delivery profiles were estimated. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis took into account parameters' uncertainty. The delivery sites with a full-time doctor and a full-time senior professional nurse and an intake of less than 200 new patients per doctor per year were the most cost-effective in retaining patients on ART. If 1000 new patients were followed up by this type of site, 724 patients would still be on ART after 10 years at a discounted cost of US$8.41 million at 2006 value with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$12,271 per extra retained patient over the second not dominated site profile. The results could be used to estimate the human resources needed for a sustainable scaling up of ART in KZN.

Microsatellite markers associated with resistance to Marek's disease in commercial layer chickens.

PubMed

McElroy, J P; Dekkers, J C M; Fulton, J E; O'Sullivan, N P; Soller, M; Lipkin, E; Zhang, W; Koehler, K J; Lamont, S J; Cheng, H H

2005-11-01

The objective of the current study was to identify QTL conferring resistance to Marek's disease (MD) in commercial layer chickens. To generate the resource population, 2 partially inbred lines that differed in MD-caused mortality were intermated to produce 5 backcross families. Vaccinated chicks were challenged with very virulent plus (vv+) MD virus strain 648A at 6 d and monitored for MD symptoms. A recent field isolate of the MD virus was used because the lines were resistant to commonly used older laboratory strains. Selective genotyping was employed using 81 microsatellites selected based on prior results with selective DNA pooling. Linear regression and Cox proportional hazard models were used to detect associations between marker genotypes and survival. Significance thresholds were validated by simulation. Seven and 6 markers were significant based on proportion of false positive and false discovery rate thresholds less than 0.2, respectively. Seventeen markers were associated with MD survival considering a comparison-wise error rate of 0.10, which is about twice the number expected by chance, indicating that at least some of the associations represent true effects. Thus, the present study shows that loci affecting MD resistance can be mapped in commercial layer lines. More comprehensive studies are under way to confirm and extend these results.

Percutaneous radiofrequency ablation for early hepatocellular carcinoma: Risk factors for survival

PubMed Central

Kikuchi, Luciana; Menezes, Marcos; Chagas, Aline L; Tani, Claudia M; Alencar, Regiane SSM; Diniz, Marcio A; Alves, Venâncio AF; D’Albuquerque, Luiz Augusto Carneiro; Carrilho, Flair José

2014-01-01

AIM: To evaluate outcomes of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) therapy for early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and identify survival- and recurrence-related factors. METHODS: Consecutive patients diagnosed with early HCC by computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) (single nodule of ≤ 5 cm, or multi- (up to 3) nodules of ≤ 3 cm each) and who underwent RFA treatment with curative intent between January 2010 and August 2011 at the Instituto do Câncer do Estado de São Paulo, Brazil were enrolled in the study. RFA of the liver tumors (with 1.0 cm ablative margin) was carried out under CT-fluoro scan and ultrasonic image guidance of the percutaneous ablation probes. Procedure-related complications were recorded. At 1-mo post-RFA and 3-mo intervals thereafter, CT and MRI were performed to assess outcomes of complete response (absence of enhancing tissue at the tumor site) or incomplete response (enhancing tissue remaining at the tumor site). Overall survival and disease-free survival rates were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log rank test or simple Cox regression. The effect of risk factors on survival was assessed by the Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: A total of 38 RFA sessions were performed during the study period on 34 patients (age in years: mean, 63 and range, 49-84). The mean follow-up time was 22 mo (range, 1-33). The study population showed predominance of male sex (76%), less severe liver disease (Child-Pugh A, n = 26; Child-Pugh B, n = 8), and single tumor (65%). The maximum tumor diameters ranged from 10 to 50 mm (median, 26 mm). The initial (immediately post-procedure) rate of RFA-induced complete tumor necrosis was 90%. The probability of achieving complete response was significantly greater in patients with a single nodule (vs patients with multi-nodules, P = 0.04). Two patients experienced major complications, including acute pulmonary edema (resolved with intervention) and intestinal perforation (led to death). The 1- and 2-year overall survival rates were 82% and 71%, respectively. Sex, tumor size, initial response, and recurrence status influenced survival, but did not reach the threshold of statistical significance. Child-Pugh class and the model for end-stage liver disease score were identified as predictors of survival by simple Cox regression, but only Child-Pugh class showed a statistically significant association to survival in multiple Cox regression analysis (HR = 15; 95%CI: 3-76 mo; P = 0.001). The 1- and 2-year cumulative disease-free survival rates were 65% and 36%, respectively. CONCLUSION: RFA is an effective therapy for local tumor control of early HCC, and patients with preserved liver function are the best candidates. PMID:24587635

Perineural invasion is associated with increased relapse after external beam radiotherapy for men with low-risk prostate cancer and may be a marker for occult, high-grade cancer.

PubMed

Beard, C J; Chen, M H; Cote, K; Loffredo, M; Renshaw, A A; Hurwitz, M; D'Amico, A V

2004-01-01

To investigate the risk of postradiotherapy prostate-specific antigen (PSA) failure on the basis of pretreatment risk factors in prostate cancer patients with and without perineural invasion (PNI) in prostate biopsy specimens and to explain the observation that otherwise low-risk patients with PNI experience decreased freedom from PSA failure after external beam radiotherapy (RT). The study cohort consisted of 381 patients who underwent RT between 1989 and 2000 for clinically localized prostate cancer. A single genitourinary pathologist scored the absence or presence of PNI on all prostate biopsy specimens. Patients were divided into low-, intermediate- and high-risk subgroups on the basis of their 1992 American Joint Committee on Cancer T-stage, pretreatment PSA level, and Gleason score. Cox regression uni- and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate whether the presence or absence of PNI in the biopsy specimen was a predictor of the time to post-RT PSA failure for patients in each pretreatment risk group. PSA failure was defined using the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology consensus definition. Actuarial PSA failure-free survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and comparisons were performed using the log-rank test. Cox regression univariate analysis revealed that PNI was a significant predictor of the time to PSA failure in the low-risk (p = 0.04) and high-risk (p = 0.03) cohorts. The 5-year PSA failure-free survival rate was 50% vs. 80% (p = 0.04) in low-risk patients, 70% vs. 75% (p = 0.72) in intermediate-risk patients, and 29% vs. 53% (p = 0.03) in high-risk patients with and without PNI, respectively. Cox regression multivariate analysis within the high-risk group revealed that a PSA level > or =20 ng/mL (p = 0.01) and Gleason score > or =8 (p = 0.02), but not PNI, were the only significant predictors of the time to PSA failure after RT. However, an association was found between the presence of PNI in the needle biopsy specimen and a biopsy Gleason score of 8-10 (p = 0.06). The association was stronger between the presence of PNI in the needle biopsy specimen and a biopsy Gleason score of 7-10 (p = 0. 033). A decrement in PSA outcome after RT for low-risk patients with PNI-positive biopsy specimens was found. The association between PNI and high Gleason score provides a possible explanation for the loss of statistical significance of PNI in the Cox regression multivariate analysis of the high-risk cohort. The data suggest that PNI found in the biopsy specimen of an otherwise low-risk patient predicts for occult high-grade disease that is missed owing to the sampling error associated with prostate biopsy. The association between PNI and a high Gleason score argues for the use of more aggressive therapy, such as hormonal therapy with RT and/or dose escalation, in these select patients.

Penalized nonparametric scalar-on-function regression via principal coordinates

PubMed Central

Reiss, Philip T.; Miller, David L.; Wu, Pei-Shien; Hua, Wen-Yu

2016-01-01

A number of classical approaches to nonparametric regression have recently been extended to the case of functional predictors. This paper introduces a new method of this type, which extends intermediate-rank penalized smoothing to scalar-on-function regression. In the proposed method, which we call principal coordinate ridge regression, one regresses the response on leading principal coordinates defined by a relevant distance among the functional predictors, while applying a ridge penalty. Our publicly available implementation, based on generalized additive modeling software, allows for fast optimal tuning parameter selection and for extensions to multiple functional predictors, exponential family-valued responses, and mixed-effects models. In an application to signature verification data, principal coordinate ridge regression, with dynamic time warping distance used to define the principal coordinates, is shown to outperform a functional generalized linear model. PMID:29217963

Sentinel node biopsy status is strongly predictive of survival in cutaneous melanoma: Extended follow-up of Oxford patients from 1998 to 2014.

PubMed

Thomson, David R; Rughani, Milap G; Kuo, Rachel; Cassell, Oliver C S

2017-10-01

Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is widely used as a key investigatory tool for cutaneous melanoma, with results incorporated into the latest AJCC staging guidelines. We present the results of our extended follow-up of sentinel lymph node biopsy for melanoma over a sixteen-year period. Data were collected prospectively from June 1998 to December 2014 from a single tertiary skin cancer referral centre. Chi-squared analysis was used to analyse patient demographics and primary tumour pathology. Survival analysis was conducted using Cox regression models and Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Over a sixteen-year period 1527 patients underwent SLNB in 1609 basins, with 2876 nodes harvested. 347 patients (23%) had a positive biopsy. The most common primary tumour sites for males was the back (32%); women had a significantly higher number of melanomas occurring on the lower and upper limbs (45% and 26% respectively) [all p < 0.0001, Chi-squared]. Mean follow-up time was 4.9 years. Patients with a positive SLNB at diagnosis were significantly more likely to die from melanoma (subhazard ratio 5.59, p = 0.000, 95% CI 3.59-8.69). Breslow thickness and ulceration were also significant predictors of melanoma-specific mortality. For patients with a primary Breslow >4.0 mm ten-year disease free survival was 52% for SLNB negative and 26% for SLNB positive patients. For Breslow thicknesses of 2.01-4 mm these values were 66% and 32% respectively. Sentinel lymph node biopsy status is strongly predictive of survival across all thicknesses of primary cutaneous melanoma. Copyright © 2017 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reconciling the effects of screening on prostate cancer mortality in the ERSPC and PLCO trials

PubMed Central

Tsodikov, Alex; Gulati, Roman; Heijnsdijk, Eveline AM; Pinsky, Paul F; Moss, Sue M; Qiu, Sheng; de Carvalho, Tiago M; Hugosson, Jonas; Berg, Christine D; Auvinen, Anssi; Andriole, Gerald L; Roobol, Monique J; Crawford, E David; Nelen, Vera; Kwiatkowski, Maciej; Zappa, Marco; Luján, Marcos; Villers, Arnauld; Feuer, Eric J; de Koning, Harry J; Mariotto, Angela B; Etzioni, Ruth

2017-01-01

Background The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) found screening reduced prostate cancer (PC) mortality, but the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian trial (PLCO) found no reduction. Objective To evaluate whether effects of screening on PC mortality relative to no screening differed between the ERSPC and PLCO. Design Cox regression of PC death in each trial arm adjusted for age and trial, and extended analyses that accounted for increased incidence due to screening and diagnostic workup on each arm via mean lead times (MLTs). MLTs were estimated empirically and using analytic or microsimulation models. Setting Randomized controlled trials in Europe and the US. Participants Men aged 55–69 (ERSPC) or 55–74 (PLCO) at randomization. Intervention Prostate cancer screening. Measurements PC incidence and survival from randomization; PC incidence in the US before screening began. Results Estimated MLTs were similar in the ERSPC and PLCO intervention arms but were longer in the PLCO control arm than the ERSPC control arm. Extended analyses found no evidence that effects of screening differed between trials (P=0.37–0.47, range across MLT estimation approaches) but strong evidence that benefit increased with MLT (P=0.0027–0.0032). Screening was estimated to confer a 7–9% reduction in PC death per year of MLT. This translated into an estimated 25–31% and 27–32% lower risk of PC death under screening as performed in the ERSPC and PLCO intervention arms, respectively, relative to no screening. Limitations MLT is a simple metric of screening and diagnostic workup. Conclusion After accounting for differences in implementation and settings, the ERSPC and PLCO provide compatible evidence that screening reduces PC mortality. PMID:28869989

Usefulness of cardiopulmonary exercise testing to predict the development of arterial hypertension in adult patients with repaired isolated coarctation of the aorta.

PubMed

Buys, Roselien; Van De Bruaene, Alexander; Müller, Jan; Hager, Alfred; Khambadkone, Sachin; Giardini, Alessandro; Cornelissen, Véronique; Budts, Werner; Vanhees, Luc

2013-10-03

Patients who underwent surgery for aortic coarctation (COA) have an increased risk of arterial hypertension. We aimed at evaluating (1) differences between hypertensive and non-hypertensive patients and (2) the value of cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) to predict the development or progression of hypertension. Between 1999 and 2010, CPET was performed in 223 COA-patients of whom 122 had resting blood pressures of <140/90 mmHg without medication, and 101 were considered hypertensive. Comparative statistics were performed. Cox regression analysis was used to assess the relation between demographic, clinical and exercise variables and the development/progression of hypertension. At baseline, hypertensive patients were older (p=0.007), were more often male (p=0.004) and had repair at later age (p=0.008) when compared to normotensive patients. After 3.6 ± 1.2 years, 29/120 (25%) normotensive patients developed hypertension. In normotensives, VE/VCO2-slope (p=0.0016) and peak systolic blood pressure (SBP; p=0.049) were significantly related to the development of hypertension during follow-up. Cut-off points related to higher risk for hypertension, based on best sensitivity and specificity, were defined as VE/VCO2-slope ≥ 27 and peak SBP ≥ 220 mmHg. In the hypertensive group, antihypertensive medication was started/extended in 48/101 (48%) patients. Only age was associated with the need to start/extend antihypertensive therapy in this group (p=0.042). Higher VE/VCO2-slope and higher peak SBP are risk factors for the development of hypertension in adults with COA. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing may guide clinical decision making regarding close blood pressure control and preventive lifestyle recommendations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lymph node retrieval during esophagectomy with and without neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy: prognostic and therapeutic impact on survival.

PubMed

Koen Talsma, A; Shapiro, Joel; Looman, Caspar W N; van Hagen, Pieter; Steyerberg, Ewout W; van der Gaast, Ate; van Berge Henegouwen, Mark I; Wijnhoven, Bas P L; van Lanschot, J Jan B; Hulshof, Maarten C C M; van Laarhoven, Hanneke W M; Nieuwenhuijzen, Grard A P; Hospers, Geke A P; Bonenkamp, Johannes J; Cuesta, Miguel A; Blaisse, Reinoud J B; Busch, Olivier R C; ten Kate, Fiebo J W; Creemers, Geert-Jan; Punt, Cornelis J A; Plukker, John T M; Verheul, Henk M W; van Dekken, Herman; van der Sangen, Maurice J C; Rozema, Tom; Biermann, Katharina; Beukema, Jannet C; Piet, Anna H M; van Rij, Caroline M; Reinders, Janny G; Tilanus, Hugo W

2014-11-01

We aimed to examine the association between total number of resected nodes and survival in patients after esophagectomy with and without nCRT. Most studies concerning the potentially positive effect of extended lymphadenectomy on survival have been performed in patients who underwent surgery alone. As nCRT is known to frequently "sterilize" regional nodes, it is unclear whether extended lymphadenectomy after nCRT is still useful. Patients from the randomized CROSS-trial who completed the entire protocol (ie, surgery alone or chemoradiotherapy + surgery) were included. With Cox regression models, we compared the impact of number of resected nodes as well as resected positive nodes on survival in both groups. One hundred sixty-one patients underwent surgery alone, and 159 patients received multimodality treatment. The median (interquartile range) number of resected nodes was 18 (12-27) and 14 (9-21), with 2 (1-6) and 0 (0-1) resected positive nodes, respectively. Persistent lymph node positivity after nCRT had a greater negative prognostic impact on survival as compared with lymph node positivity after surgery alone. The total number of resected nodes was significantly associated with survival for patients in the surgery-alone arm (hazard ratio per 10 additionally resected nodes, 0.76; P=0.007), but not in the multimodality arm (hazard ratio 1.00; P=0.98). The number of resected nodes had a prognostic impact on survival in patients after surgery alone, but its therapeutic value is still controversial. After nCRT, the number of resected nodes was not associated with survival. These data question the indication for maximization of lymphadenectomy after nCRT.

Surgical Management of Renal Cell Carcinoma Extending Into Venous System: A 20-Year Experience.

PubMed

Xiao, X; Zhang, L; Chen, X; Cui, L; Zhu, H; Pang, D; Yang, Y; Wang, Q; Wang, M; Gao, C

2017-11-01

The purpose of this study is to report our 20-year experience with the surgical management of renal cell carcinoma extending into the inferior vena cava using a novel classification system. We retrospectively reviewed the data of 103 patients (69 males, 34 females, mean age: 52.9 ± 12.6 years) with renal cell carcinoma involving the venous system treated between 1993 and 2014. The inferior vena cava tumor thrombus was classified into five levels: 0 (renal vein, n = 12), 1 (infrahepatic, n = 33), 2a (low retrohepatic, n = 26), 2b (high retrohepatic, n = 19), and 3 (supradiaphragmatic, n = 13). Clinical data were summarized, and overall survival, cancer-specific survival, and disease-free survival were examined by Cox regression analysis. All patients underwent radical surgery. Complete resections of the renal tumor and thrombus were achieved in 101 patients (98.1%). Two intraoperative and one postoperative in-hospital deaths (2.9%) occurred. In total, 19 patients (18.8%) had a total of 29 postoperative complications. Mean follow-up time was 46 months (range, 1-239 months). The 5- and 10-year overall survival rates were 62.9% and 56.0%, respectively. Metastasis, rather than thrombus level, was a significant risk factor associated with overall survival (hazard ratio = 4.89, 95% confidence interval: 2.24-10.67, p < 0.001). Our novel classification system can be used to select the optimal surgical approach and method for patients with renal cell carcinoma and venous thrombus. Its use is associated with prolonged survival and relatively few complications. Metastasis is an independent risk factor of overall survival.

The MAOA promoter polymorphism, disruptive behavior disorders, and early onset substance use disorder: gene-environment interaction.

PubMed

Vanyukov, Michael M; Maher, Brion S; Devlin, Bernie; Kirillova, Galina P; Kirisci, Levent; Yu, Ling-Mei; Ferrell, Robert E

2007-12-01

Conduct, oppositional defiant, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorders, reflecting early antisociality and behavior dysregulation, are predictive of substance use disorders. Liabilities to these disorders share genetic and environmental variance. Parenting characteristics have been shown to influence development of antisociality, moderated by variation at the MAOA gene, which has also been associated with the risk for substance use disorders. To extend these findings, we tested the relationships between the MAOA promoter polymorphism (variable number tandem repeat), indices of child's perception of paternal and maternal parenting, and disruptive behavior disorders and substance use disorders. A sample of 148 European-American males was assessed prospectively at ages from 10-12 to 18-19 years and genotyped for the monoamine oxidase A variable number tandem repeat. The Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorder-III-R diagnoses were obtained using standard methodology. Parenting was assessed using a scale summarizing the child's evaluation of the parenting style (parent's behavior toward him, parental emotional distance and involvement). Correlation, logistic regression, and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to determine the relationships between the variables. The strength of association between parenting index and conduct and attention deficit hyperactivity disorders depended on the MAOA genotype. Unlike earlier findings, the parenting-risk relationships were observed in the 'high-' rather than 'low-activity' genotypes. The strength and direction of relationships depended on the parental sex. The MAOA polymorphism's association with the risk for substance use disorders was detected when parenting was controlled for. The results are consistent with the contribution of the MAOA gene, parenting style and their interactions to variation in the risk for early onset behavior disorders and liability to substance use disorders.

Influence of Competing Risks on Estimating the Expected Benefit of Warfarin Among Atrial Fibrillation Patients not Currently Taking Anticoagulants: the ATRIA Study

PubMed Central

Ashburner, Jeffrey M.; Go, Alan S.; Chang, Yuchiao; Fang, Margaret C.; Fredman, Lisa; Applebaum, Katie M.; Singer, Daniel E.

2016-01-01

Background/Objectives To date, studies examining the association between warfarin therapy and incidence of ischemic stroke among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have not accounted for the competing risk of death. Competing risk analysis may provide greater understanding of the “real world” impact of anticoagulation on stroke risk over a multiyear time span. Design Cohort study Setting ATRIA Study community-based cohort Participants 13,559 adults with nonvalvular AF between 1996 and 2003. Measurements All events were clinician-adjudicated. We used extended Cox regression with longitudinal warfarin exposure to estimate cause-specific hazard ratios (HR) for thromboembolism (TE) and the competing risk event (all cause death). The Fine and Gray subdistribution regression approach was used to estimate this association while accounting for competing death events. As a secondary analysis, follow-up was limited to 1, 3, and 5-years. Results The rate of death was much higher in the non-warfarin group (8.1 deaths/100 person-years) compared to the warfarin group (5.5 deaths/100 person-years). The cause-specific HR indicated a large reduction in TE with warfarin use (adjusted HR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.50–0.65). However, after accounting for competing death events, this association was substantially attenuated (adjusted HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.77–0.99). In analyses limited to 1-year of follow-up with fewer competing death events, the results for models that did and did not account for competing risks were similar. Conclusion Analyses accounting for competing death events may provide a more realistic estimate of the longer-term stroke prevention benefits of anticoagulants for patients with AF, particularly those who are not currently treated with anticoagulants. PMID:27861698

Association between Stereotactic Radiotherapy and Death from Brain Metastases of Epithelial Ovarian Cancer: a Gliwice Data Re-Analysis with Penalization

PubMed

Tukiendorf, Andrzej; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Wydmański, Jerzy; Wolny-Rokicka, Edyta

2017-04-01

Background: Clinical datasets for epithelial ovarian cancer brain metastatic patients are usually small in size. When adequate case numbers are lacking, resulting estimates of regression coefficients may demonstrate bias. One of the direct approaches to reduce such sparse-data bias is based on penalized estimation. Methods: A re- analysis of formerly reported hazard ratios in diagnosed patients was performed using penalized Cox regression with a popular SAS package providing additional software codes for a statistical computational procedure. Results: It was found that the penalized approach can readily diminish sparse data artefacts and radically reduce the magnitude of estimated regression coefficients. Conclusions: It was confirmed that classical statistical approaches may exaggerate regression estimates or distort study interpretations and conclusions. The results support the thesis that penalization via weak informative priors and data augmentation are the safest approaches to shrink sparse data artefacts frequently occurring in epidemiological research. Creative Commons Attribution License

Novel Harmonic Regularization Approach for Variable Selection in Cox's Proportional Hazards Model

PubMed Central

Chu, Ge-Jin; Liang, Yong; Wang, Jia-Xuan

2014-01-01

Variable selection is an important issue in regression and a number of variable selection methods have been proposed involving nonconvex penalty functions. In this paper, we investigate a novel harmonic regularization method, which can approximate nonconvex Lq  (1/2 < q < 1) regularizations, to select key risk factors in the Cox's proportional hazards model using microarray gene expression data. The harmonic regularization method can be efficiently solved using our proposed direct path seeking approach, which can produce solutions that closely approximate those for the convex loss function and the nonconvex regularization. Simulation results based on the artificial datasets and four real microarray gene expression datasets, such as real diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DCBCL), the lung cancer, and the AML datasets, show that the harmonic regularization method can be more accurate for variable selection than existing Lasso series methods. PMID:25506389

Eminence, IQ, physical and mental health, and achievement domain : Cox's 282 Geniuses revisited.

PubMed

Simonton, Dean Keith; Song, Anna V

2009-04-01

Catharine Cox published two studies of highly eminent creators and leaders, the first in 1926 as the second volume of Terman's landmark Genetic Studies of Genius and the second in 1936 as a coauthored article. The former publication concentrated on the relation between IQ and achieved eminence, and the latter focused on early physical and mental health. Taking advantage of unpublished data from the second study, we examined, for the first time, the relationships among achieved eminence, IQ, early physical and mental health, and achievement domain. The correlation and regression analyses showed, for these 282 individuals, that eminence is a positive function of IQ and that IQ is a positive function of mental health and a negative function of physical health, implying an indirect effect of physical and mental health on eminence. Furthermore, levels of early physical and mental health vary across 10 specific domains of achievement.

Morse Code, Scrabble, and the Alphabet

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richardson, Mary; Gabrosek, John; Reischman, Diann; Curtiss, Phyliss

2004-01-01

In this paper we describe an interactive activity that illustrates simple linear regression. Students collect data and analyze it using simple linear regression techniques taught in an introductory applied statistics course. The activity is extended to illustrate checks for regression assumptions and regression diagnostics taught in an…

Diagnostic and Prognostic Value of Long-Axis Strain and Myocardial Contraction Fraction Using Standard Cardiovascular MR Imaging in Patients with Nonischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathies.

PubMed

Arenja, Nisha; Riffel, Johannes H; Fritz, Thomas; André, Florian; Aus dem Siepen, Fabian; Mueller-Hennessen, Matthias; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Katus, Hugo A; Friedrich, Matthias G; Buss, Sebastian J

2017-06-01

Purpose To assess the utility of established functional markers versus two additional functional markers derived from standard cardiovascular magnetic resonance (MR) images for their incremental diagnostic and prognostic information in patients with nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM). Materials and Methods Approval was obtained from the local ethics committee. MR images from 453 patients with NIDCM and 150 healthy control subjects were included between 2005 and 2013 and were analyzed retrospectively. Myocardial contraction fraction (MCF) was calculated by dividing left ventricular (LV) stroke volume by LV myocardial volume, and long-axis strain (LAS) was calculated from the distances between the epicardial border of the LV apex and the midpoint of a line connecting the origins of the mitral valve leaflets at end systole and end diastole. Receiver operating characteristic curve, Kaplan-Meier method, Cox regression, and classification and regression tree (CART) analyses were performed for diagnostic and prognostic performances. Results LAS (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.93, P < .001) and MCF (AUC = 0.92, P < .001) can be used to discriminate patients with NIDCM from age- and sex-matched control subjects. A total of 97 patients reached the combined end point during a median follow-up of 4.8 years. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, only LV ejection fraction (EF) and LAS independently indicated the combined end point (hazard ratio = 2.8 and 1.9, respectively; P < .001 for both). In a risk stratification approach with classification and regression tree analysis, combined LV EF and LAS cutoff values were used to stratify patients into three risk groups (log-rank test, P < .001). Conclusion Cardiovascular MR-derived MCF and LAS serve as reliable diagnostic and prognostic markers in patients with NIDCM. LAS, as a marker for longitudinal contractile function, is an independent parameter for outcome and offers incremental information beyond LV EF and the presence of myocardial fibrosis. © RSNA, 2017 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Body mass index in relation to serum prostate-specific antigen levels and prostate cancer risk.

PubMed

Bonn, Stephanie E; Sjölander, Arvid; Tillander, Annika; Wiklund, Fredrik; Grönberg, Henrik; Bälter, Katarina

2016-07-01

High Body mass index (BMI) has been directly associated with risk of aggressive or fatal prostate cancer. One possible explanation may be an effect of BMI on serum levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA). To study the association between BMI and serum PSA as well as prostate cancer risk, a large cohort of men without prostate cancer at baseline was followed prospectively for prostate cancer diagnoses until 2015. Serum PSA and BMI were assessed among 15,827 men at baseline in 2010-2012. During follow-up, 735 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer with 282 (38.4%) classified as high-grade cancers. Multivariable linear regression models and natural cubic linear regression splines were fitted for analyses of BMI and log-PSA. For risk analysis, Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) and natural cubic Cox regression splines producing standardized cancer-free probabilities were fitted. Results showed that baseline Serum PSA decreased by 1.6% (95% CI: -2.1 to -1.1) with every one unit increase in BMI. Statistically significant decreases of 3.7, 11.7 and 32.3% were seen for increasing BMI-categories of 25 < 30, 30 < 35 and ≥35 kg/m(2), respectively, compared to the reference (18.5 < 25 kg/m(2)). No statistically significant associations were seen between BMI and prostate cancer risk although results were indicative of a positive association to incidence rates of high-grade disease and an inverse association to incidence of low-grade disease. However, findings regarding risk are limited by the short follow-up time. In conclusion, BMI was inversely associated to PSA-levels. BMI should be taken into consideration when referring men to a prostate biopsy based on serum PSA-levels. © 2016 UICC.

Soccer and sexual health education: a promising approach for reducing adolescent births in Haiti.

PubMed

Kaplan, Kathryn C; Lewis, Judy; Gebrian, Bette; Theall, Katherine

2015-05-01

To explore the effect of an innovative, integrative program in female sexual reproductive health (SRH) and soccer (or fútbol, in Haitian Creole) in rural Haiti by measuring the rate of births among program participants 15-19 years old and their nonparticipant peers. A retrospective cohort study using 2006-2009 data from the computerized data-tracking system of the Haitian Health Foundation (HHF), a U.S.-based nongovernmental organization serving urban and rural populations in Haiti, was used to assess births among girls 15-19 years old who participated in HHF's GenNext program, a combination education-soccer program for youth, based on SRH classes HHF nurses and community workers had been conducting in Haiti for mothers, fathers, and youth; girl-centered health screenings; and an all-female summer soccer league, during 2006-2009 (n = 4 251). Bivariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were carried out to assess differences in the rate of births among program participants according to their level of participation (SRH component only ("EDU") versus both the SRH and soccer components ("SO") compared to their village peers who did not participate. Hazard ratios (HRs) of birth rates were estimated using Cox regression analysis of childbearing data for the three different groups. In the multiple logistic regression analysis, only the girls in the "EDU" group had significantly fewer births than the nonparticipants after adjusting for confounders (odds ratio = 0.535; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.304, 0.940). The Cox regression analysis demonstrated that those in the EDU group (HR = 0.893; 95% CI = 0.802, 0.994) and to a greater degree those in the SO group (HR = 0.631; 95% CI = 0.558, 0.714) were significantly protected against childbearing between the ages of 15 and 19 years. HHF's GenNext program demonstrates the effectiveness of utilizing nurse educators, community mobilization, and youth participation in sports, education, and structured youth groups to promote and sustain health for adolescent girls and young women.

Cyclooxygenase inhibition targets neurons to prevent early behavioural decline in Alzheimer’s disease model mice

PubMed Central

Woodling, Nathaniel S.; Colas, Damien; Wang, Qian; Minhas, Paras; Panchal, Maharshi; Liang, Xibin; Mhatre, Siddhita D.; Brown, Holden; Ko, Novie; Zagol-Ikapitte, Irene; van der Hart, Marieke; Khroyan, Taline V.; Chuluun, Bayarsaikhan; Priyam, Prachi G.; Milne, Ginger L.; Rassoulpour, Arash; Boutaud, Olivier; Manning-Boğ, Amy B.; Heller, H. Craig

2016-01-01

Abstract Identifying preventive targets for Alzheimer’s disease is a central challenge of modern medicine. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, which inhibit the cyclooxygenase enzymes COX-1 and COX-2, reduce the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease in normal ageing populations. This preventive effect coincides with an extended preclinical phase that spans years to decades before onset of cognitive decline. In the brain, COX-2 is induced in neurons in response to excitatory synaptic activity and in glial cells in response to inflammation. To identify mechanisms underlying prevention of cognitive decline by anti-inflammatory drugs, we first identified an early object memory deficit in APP Swe -PS1 ΔE9 mice that preceded previously identified spatial memory deficits in this model. We modelled prevention of this memory deficit with ibuprofen, and found that ibuprofen prevented memory impairment without producing any measurable changes in amyloid-β accumulation or glial inflammation. Instead, ibuprofen modulated hippocampal gene expression in pathways involved in neuronal plasticity and increased levels of norepinephrine and dopamine. The gene most highly downregulated by ibuprofen was neuronal tryptophan 2,3-dioxygenase ( Tdo2 ), which encodes an enzyme that metabolizes tryptophan to kynurenine. TDO2 expression was increased by neuronal COX-2 activity, and overexpression of hippocampal TDO2 produced behavioural deficits. Moreover, pharmacological TDO2 inhibition prevented behavioural deficits in APP Swe -PS1 ΔE9 mice. Taken together, these data demonstrate broad effects of cyclooxygenase inhibition on multiple neuronal pathways that counteract the neurotoxic effects of early accumulating amyloid-β oligomers. PMID:27190010

Marginal Structural Cox Models for Estimating the Association Between β-Interferon Exposure and Disease Progression in a Multiple Sclerosis Cohort

PubMed Central

Karim, Mohammad Ehsanul; Gustafson, Paul; Petkau, John; Zhao, Yinshan; Shirani, Afsaneh; Kingwell, Elaine; Evans, Charity; van der Kop, Mia; Oger, Joel; Tremlett, Helen

2014-01-01

Longitudinal observational data are required to assess the association between exposure to β-interferon medications and disease progression among relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) patients in the “real-world” clinical practice setting. Marginal structural Cox models (MSCMs) can provide distinct advantages over traditional approaches by allowing adjustment for time-varying confounders such as MS relapses, as well as baseline characteristics, through the use of inverse probability weighting. We assessed the suitability of MSCMs to analyze data from a large cohort of 1,697 relapsing-remitting MS patients in British Columbia, Canada (1995–2008). In the context of this observational study, which spanned more than a decade and involved patients with a chronic yet fluctuating disease, the recently proposed “normalized stabilized” weights were found to be the most appropriate choice of weights. Using this model, no association between β-interferon exposure and the hazard of disability progression was found (hazard ratio = 1.36, 95% confidence interval: 0.95, 1.94). For sensitivity analyses, truncated normalized unstabilized weights were used in additional MSCMs and to construct inverse probability weight-adjusted survival curves; the findings did not change. Additionally, qualitatively similar conclusions from approximation approaches to the weighted Cox model (i.e., MSCM) extend confidence in the findings. PMID:24939980

Transcriptional coupling of synaptic transmission and energy metabolism: role of nuclear respiratory factor 1 in co-regulating neuronal nitric oxide synthase and cytochrome c oxidase genes in neurons.

PubMed

Dhar, Shilpa S; Liang, Huan Ling; Wong-Riley, Margaret T T

2009-10-01

Neuronal activity is highly dependent on energy metabolism; yet, the two processes have traditionally been regarded as independently regulated at the transcriptional level. Recently, we found that the same transcription factor, nuclear respiratory factor 1 (NRF-1) co-regulates an important energy-generating enzyme, cytochrome c oxidase, as well as critical subunits of glutamatergic receptors. The present study tests our hypothesis that the co-regulation extends to the next level of glutamatergic synapses, namely, neuronal nitric oxide synthase, which generates nitric oxide as a downstream signaling molecule. Using in silico analysis, electrophoretic mobility shift assay, chromatin immunoprecipitation, promoter mutations, and NRF-1 silencing, we documented that NRF-1 functionally bound to Nos1, but not Nos2 (inducible) and Nos3 (endothelial) gene promoters. Both COX and Nos1 transcripts were up-regulated by depolarizing KCl treatment and down-regulated by TTX-mediated impulse blockade in neurons. However, NRF-1 silencing blocked the up-regulation of both Nos1 and COX induced by KCl depolarization, and over-expression of NRF-1 rescued both Nos1 and COX transcripts down-regulated by TTX. These findings are consistent with our hypothesis that synaptic neuronal transmission and energy metabolism are tightly coupled at the molecular level.

Long survival in Leigh syndrome: new cases and review of literature.

PubMed

Aulbert, Wiebke; Weigt-Usinger, Katharina; Thiels, Charlotte; Köhler, Cornelia; Vorgerd, Matthias; Schreiner, Anja; Hoffjan, Sabine; Rothoeft, Tobias; Wortmann, Saskia Brigitte; Heyer, Christoph Malte; Podskarbi, Teodor; Lücke, Thomas

2014-12-01

Leigh syndrome (MIM 25600), also known as infantile subacute necrotizing encephalomyelopathy, is a neurodegenerative disorder with characteristic bilateral symmetric lesions in basal ganglia and subcortical brain regions. It is commonly associated with systemic cytochrome c oxidase (COX) deficiency and mutations in the SURF1 gene (MIM 185620), encoding a putative assembly or maintenance factor of COX. The clinical course is dominated by neurodevelopmental regression, brain stem, and basal ganglia involvement (e.g., dystonia, apnea) with death often occurring before the age of 10 years. Herein, we present three sisters carrying a previously reported homozygous SURF1 mutation (c.868_869insT) that is predicted to result in a truncated protein with loss of function. Our patients show heterogeneous clinical findings with different distribution patterns of metabolic lesions in brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as well as a Chiari malformation with hydrocephalus in one patient. However, all three siblings show an unusual long survival (12 years and>16 years). COX activity was not detectable in one patient and strongly reduced in the other two. We discuss these findings with respect to a review of the literature. A total of 15 additional patients with survival>14 years have been reported so far. Overall, no clear genotype-phenotype correlations are detectable among these patients. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Sublobar resection is equivalent to lobectomy for clinical stage 1A lung cancer in solid nodules.

PubMed

Altorki, Nasser K; Yip, Rowena; Hanaoka, Takaomi; Bauer, Thomas; Aye, Ralph; Kohman, Leslie; Sheppard, Barry; Thurer, Richard; Andaz, Shahriyour; Smith, Michael; Mayfield, William; Grannis, Fred; Korst, Robert; Pass, Harvey; Straznicka, Michaela; Flores, Raja; Henschke, Claudia I

2014-02-01

A single randomized trial established lobectomy as the standard of care for the surgical treatment of early-stage non-small cell lung cancer. Recent advances in imaging/staging modalities and detection of smaller tumors have once again rekindled interest in sublobar resection for early-stage disease. The objective of this study was to compare lung cancer survival in patients with non-small cell lung cancer with a diameter of 30 mm or less with clinical stage 1 disease who underwent lobectomy or sublobar resection. We identified 347 patients diagnosed with lung cancer who underwent lobectomy (n = 294) or sublobar resection (n = 53) for non-small cell lung cancer manifesting as a solid nodule in the International Early Lung Cancer Action Program from 1993 to 2011. Differences in the distribution of the presurgical covariates between sublobar resection and lobectomy were assessed using unadjusted P values determined by logistic regression analysis. Propensity scoring was performed using the same covariates. Differences in the distribution of the same covariates between sublobar resection and lobectomy were assessed using adjusted P values determined by logistic regression analysis with adjustment for the propensity scores. Lung cancer-specific survival was determined by the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox survival regression analysis was used to compare sublobar resection with lobectomy, adjusted for the propensity scores, surgical, and pathology findings, when adjusted and stratified by propensity quintiles. Among 347 patients, 10-year Kaplan-Meier for 53 patients treated by sublobar resection compared with 294 patients treated by lobectomy was 85% (95% confidence interval, 80-91) versus 86% (confidence interval, 75-96) (P = .86). Cox survival analysis showed no significant difference between sublobar resection and lobectomy when adjusted for propensity scores or when using propensity quintiles (P = .62 and P = .79, respectively). For those with cancers 20 mm or less in diameter, the 10-year rates were 88% (95% confidence interval, 82-93) versus 84% (95% confidence interval, 73-96) (P = .45), and Cox survival analysis showed no significant difference between sublobar resection and lobectomy using either approach (P = .42 and P = .52, respectively). Sublobar resection and lobectomy have equivalent survival for patients with clinical stage IA non-small cell lung cancer in the context of computed tomography screening for lung cancer. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling Linguistic Variables With Regression Models: Addressing Non-Gaussian Distributions, Non-independent Observations, and Non-linear Predictors With Random Effects and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape

PubMed Central

Coupé, Christophe

2018-01-01

As statistical approaches are getting increasingly used in linguistics, attention must be paid to the choice of methods and algorithms used. This is especially true since they require assumptions to be satisfied to provide valid results, and because scientific articles still often fall short of reporting whether such assumptions are met. Progress is being, however, made in various directions, one of them being the introduction of techniques able to model data that cannot be properly analyzed with simpler linear regression models. We report recent advances in statistical modeling in linguistics. We first describe linear mixed-effects regression models (LMM), which address grouping of observations, and generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMM), which offer a family of distributions for the dependent variable. Generalized additive models (GAM) are then introduced, which allow modeling non-linear parametric or non-parametric relationships between the dependent variable and the predictors. We then highlight the possibilities offered by generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS). We explain how they make it possible to go beyond common distributions, such as Gaussian or Poisson, and offer the appropriate inferential framework to account for ‘difficult’ variables such as count data with strong overdispersion. We also demonstrate how they offer interesting perspectives on data when not only the mean of the dependent variable is modeled, but also its variance, skewness, and kurtosis. As an illustration, the case of phonemic inventory size is analyzed throughout the article. For over 1,500 languages, we consider as predictors the number of speakers, the distance from Africa, an estimation of the intensity of language contact, and linguistic relationships. We discuss the use of random effects to account for genealogical relationships, the choice of appropriate distributions to model count data, and non-linear relationships. Relying on GAMLSS, we assess a range of candidate distributions, including the Sichel, Delaporte, Box-Cox Green and Cole, and Box-Cox t distributions. We find that the Box-Cox t distribution, with appropriate modeling of its parameters, best fits the conditional distribution of phonemic inventory size. We finally discuss the specificities of phoneme counts, weak effects, and how GAMLSS should be considered for other linguistic variables. PMID:29713298

Modeling Linguistic Variables With Regression Models: Addressing Non-Gaussian Distributions, Non-independent Observations, and Non-linear Predictors With Random Effects and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape.

PubMed

Coupé, Christophe

2018-01-01

As statistical approaches are getting increasingly used in linguistics, attention must be paid to the choice of methods and algorithms used. This is especially true since they require assumptions to be satisfied to provide valid results, and because scientific articles still often fall short of reporting whether such assumptions are met. Progress is being, however, made in various directions, one of them being the introduction of techniques able to model data that cannot be properly analyzed with simpler linear regression models. We report recent advances in statistical modeling in linguistics. We first describe linear mixed-effects regression models (LMM), which address grouping of observations, and generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMM), which offer a family of distributions for the dependent variable. Generalized additive models (GAM) are then introduced, which allow modeling non-linear parametric or non-parametric relationships between the dependent variable and the predictors. We then highlight the possibilities offered by generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS). We explain how they make it possible to go beyond common distributions, such as Gaussian or Poisson, and offer the appropriate inferential framework to account for 'difficult' variables such as count data with strong overdispersion. We also demonstrate how they offer interesting perspectives on data when not only the mean of the dependent variable is modeled, but also its variance, skewness, and kurtosis. As an illustration, the case of phonemic inventory size is analyzed throughout the article. For over 1,500 languages, we consider as predictors the number of speakers, the distance from Africa, an estimation of the intensity of language contact, and linguistic relationships. We discuss the use of random effects to account for genealogical relationships, the choice of appropriate distributions to model count data, and non-linear relationships. Relying on GAMLSS, we assess a range of candidate distributions, including the Sichel, Delaporte, Box-Cox Green and Cole, and Box-Cox t distributions. We find that the Box-Cox t distribution, with appropriate modeling of its parameters, best fits the conditional distribution of phonemic inventory size. We finally discuss the specificities of phoneme counts, weak effects, and how GAMLSS should be considered for other linguistic variables.

[Value of the albumin to globulin ratio in predicting severity and prognosis in myasthenia gravis patients].

PubMed

Yang, D H; Su, Z Q; Chen, Y; Chen, Z B; Ding, Z N; Weng, Y Y; Li, J; Li, X; Tong, Q L; Han, Y X; Zhang, X

2016-03-08

To assess the predictive value of the albumin to globulin ratio (AGR) in evaluation of disease severity and prognosis in myasthenia gravis patients. A total of 135 myasthenia gravis (MG) patients were enrolled between February 2009 and March 2015. The AGR was detected on the first day of hospitalization and ranked from lowest to highest, and the patients were divided into three equal tertiles according to the AGR values, which were T1 (AGR <1.34), T2 (1.34≤AGR≤1.53) and T3 (AGR>1.53). The Kaplan-Meier curve was used to evaluate the prognostic value of AGR. Cox model analysis was used to evaluate the relevant factors. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to find the predictors of myasthenia crisis during hospitalization. The median length of hospital stay for each tertile was: for the T1 21 days (15-35.5), T2 18 days (14-27.5), and T3 16 days (12-22.5) (P<0.01), and Kaplan-Meier curves showed significant difference among the three groups. In the univariate model, serum albumin, creatinine, AGR and MGFA clinical classification were related to prognosis of myasthenia gravis. At the multivariate Cox regression analysis, the AGR (P<0.001) and MGFA clinical classification (P<0.001) were independent predictive factors of disease severity and prognosis in myasthenia gravis patients. Respectively, the hazard ratio (HR) were 4.655 (95% CI: 2.355-9.202) and 0.596 (95% CI: 0.492-0.723). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed the AGR (P<0.001) and MGFA clinical classification were related to myasthenia crisis. The AGR may represent a simple, potentially useful predictive biomarker for evaluating the disease severity and prognosis of patients with myasthenia gravis.

Asthma exacerbations in children immediately following stressful life events: a Cox's hierarchical regression.

PubMed

Sandberg, S; Järvenpää, S; Penttinen, A; Paton, J Y; McCann, D C

2004-12-01

A recent prospective study of children with asthma employing a within subject, over time analysis using dynamic logistic regression showed that severely negative life events significantly increased the risk of an acute exacerbation during the subsequent 6 week period. The timing of the maximum risk depended on the degree of chronic psychosocial stress also present. A hierarchical Cox regression analysis was undertaken to examine whether there were any immediate effects of negative life events in children without a background of high chronic stress. Sixty children with verified chronic asthma were followed prospectively for 18 months with continuous monitoring of asthma by daily symptom diaries and peak flow measurements, accompanied by repeated interview assessments of life events. The key outcome measures were asthma exacerbations and severely negative life events. An immediate effect evident within the first 2 days following a severely negative life event increased the risk of a new asthma attack by a factor of 4.69, 95% confidence interval 2.33 to 9.44 (p<0.001) [corrected] In the period 3-10 days after a severe event there was no increased risk of an asthma attack (p = 0.5). In addition to the immediate effect, an increased risk of 1.81 (95% confidence interval 1.24 to 2.65) [corrected] was found 5-7 weeks after a severe event (p = 0.002). This is consistent with earlier findings. There was a statistically significant variation due to unobserved factors in the incidence of asthma attacks between the children. The use of statistical methods capable of investigating short time lags showed that stressful life events significantly increase the risk of a new asthma attack immediately after the event; a more delayed increase in risk was also evident 5-7 weeks later.

Updating prognosis of cirrhosis by Cox's regression model using Child-Pugh score and aminopyrine breath test as time-dependent covariates.

PubMed

Merkel, C; Morabito, A; Sacerdoti, D; Bolognesi, M; Angeli, P; Gatta, A

1998-06-01

The determination of aminopyrine breath test on entry into the study was recently shown to improve the accuracy of prediction of death based on the Child-Pugh classification, but the possible usefulness of serial determinations of both parameters has not been assessed. In the present study, we aimed at evaluating whether serial determinations of aminopyrine breath test and Child-Pugh score improve prognostic accuracy in patients with cirrhosis, compared with determinations obtained only on admission. In 74 patients with liver cirrhosis aminopyrine breath test and Child-Pugh score were obtained upon entry into the study. Patients were followed with sequential aminopyrine breath tests and assessments of the Child-Pugh score every 4-6 months. A total number of 232 determinations were obtained. During follow-up 45 patients died, on average after 12 months of follow-up. Child-Pugh score improved in the beginning of follow-up, and then remained fairly constant; aminopyrine breath test showed no improvement in the beginning of follow-up, but rather a slowly progressive decline. In patients who died, both the Child-Pugh score and the metabolism of aminopyrine were significantly more impaired in the last year preceding death (p < 0.05). Applying Cox's regression model with time-dependent covariates, Child-Pugh score and aminopyrine breath test were independent significant predictors of survival. The model with time-dependent covariates explained the observed survival much better than the model with time-fixed covariates (chi-sq. explained by regression = 31.45 vs 11.97; d.f. = 2; p = 0.0000001 vs 0.003). These data suggest that serial determinations of Child-Pugh score and aminopyrine breath test can be used to efficiently update prognosis of cirrhosis.

Predictors of discontinuation of antipsychotic medication and subsequent outcomes in the European First Episode Schizophrenia Trial (EUFEST).

PubMed

Landolt, Karin; Rössler, Wulf; Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; Derks, Eske M; Libiger, Jan; Kahn, René S; Fleischhacker, W Wolfgang

2016-04-01

This study had two aims: to describe patients suffering from first-episode schizophrenia who had stopped taking any antipsychotic medication, and to gain information on the predictors of successful discontinuation. We investigated data from the European First Episode Schizophrenia Trial (EUFEST). From the 325 patients included, 15.7% discontinued all antipsychotic medication. In a first analysis, clinical and sociodemographical predictors of discontinuing any antipsychotic medication were identified, using Cox regression. In the second analysis, logistic regression was used to determine variables associated with those patients who had stopped taking antipsychotic medication and had a favourable outcome, i.e., successful discontinuation. A good outcome was defined as a) having had no relapse within the whole observation period (80.6%), and b) having had no relapse and symptomatic remission at 12-month-follow-up (37.2%). Cox regression revealed that a higher proportion of patients from Western European countries and Israel stopped antipsychotic medication than from Central and Eastern European countries, that relapse was associated with discontinuation, and that discontinuers had lower compliance and higher quality of life. Predictors of successful discontinuation differed with the outcome definition used. Using definition b), successful discontinuers had a better baseline prognosis and better baseline social integration. Using definition a), successful discontinuers more often were from Western European countries. Region and clinical factors were associated with discontinuation. Prognosis and social integration played an important role in predicting successful discontinuation. As this study had several limitations, for example the observational design regarding discontinuation, further studies are needed to identify predictors of successful discontinuation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A long-recommended but seldom-used method of analysis for fall injuries found a unique pattern of risk factors in the youngest-old.

PubMed

Legrand, Helen; Pihlsgård, Mats; Nordell, Eva; Elmståhl, Sölve

2015-08-01

Few studies on fall risk factors use long-recommended methods for analysis of recurrent events. Previous falls are the biggest risk factor for future falls, but few fall studies focus on the youngest-old. This study's objective was to apply Cox regression for recurrent events to identify factors associated with injurious falls in the youngest-old. Participants were community-dwelling residents of southern Sweden (n = 1,133), aged 59-67 at baseline (median 61.2), from the youngest cohorts of the larger Good Aging in Skåne (GÅS) study. Exposure variable data were collected from baseline study visits and medical records. Injurious falls, defined as emergency, inpatient, or specialist visits associated with ICD-10 fall codes during the follow-up period (2001-2011), were gathered from national and regional registries. Analysis was conducted using time to event Cox Regression for recurrent events. A majority (77.1 %) of injurious falls caused serious injuries such as fractures and open wounds. Exposure to nervous system medications [hazard ratio (HR) 1.40, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.89], central nervous system disease (HR 1.79, CI 1.18-2.70), and previous injurious fall(s) (HR 2.00, CI 1.50-2.68) were associated with increased hazard of injurious fall. Regression for recurrent events is feasible with typical falls' study data. The association of certain exposures with increased hazard of injurious falls begins earlier than previously studied. Different patterns of risk factors by age can provide insight into the progression of frailty. Tailored fall prevention screening and intervention may be of value in populations younger than those traditionally screened.

Predictors of pharmacological treatment outcomes with atomoxetine or methylphenidate in patients with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder from China, Egypt, Lebanon, Russian Federation, Taiwan, and United Arab Emirates.

PubMed

Treuer, T; Feng, Q; Desaiah, D; Altin, M; Wu, S; El-Shafei, A; Serebryakova, E; Gado, M; Faries, D

2014-09-01

The reduced availability of data from non-Western countries limits our ability to understand attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) treatment outcomes, specifically, adherence and persistence of ADHD in children and adolescents. This analysis assessed predictors of treatment outcomes in a non-Western cohort of patients with ADHD treated with atomoxetine or methylphenidate. Data from a 12-month, prospective, observational study in outpatients aged 6-17 years treated with atomoxetine (N = 234) or methylphenidate (N = 221) were analysed post hoc to determine potential predictors of treatment outcomes. Participating countries included the Russian Federation, China, Taiwan, Egypt, United Arab Emirates and Lebanon. Factors associated with remission were analysed with stepwise multiple logistic regression and classification and regression trees (CART). Cox proportional hazards models with propensity score adjustment assessed differences in atomoxetine persistence among initial-dose cohorts. In patients treated with atomoxetine who had available dosing information (N = 134), Cox proportional hazards revealed lower (< 0.5 mg/kg) initial dose was significantly associated with shorter medication persistence (p < 0.01). multiple logistic regression analysis revealed greater rates of remission for atomoxetine-treated patients were associated with age (older), country (United Arab Emirates) and gender (female) (all p < 0.05). CART analysis confirmed older age and lack of specific phobias were associated with greater remission rates. For methylphenidate, greater baseline weight (highly correlated with the age factor found for atomoxetine) and prior atomoxetine use were associated with greater remission rates. These findings may help clinicians assess factors upon initiation of ADHD treatment to improve course prediction, proper dosing and treatment adherence and persistence. Observational study, therefore no registration. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cell cycle-related genes as modifiers of age of onset of colorectal cancer in Lynch syndrome: a large-scale study in non-Hispanic white patients.

PubMed

Chen, Jinyun; Pande, Mala; Huang, Yu-Jing; Wei, Chongjuan; Amos, Christopher I; Talseth-Palmer, Bente A; Meldrum, Cliff J; Chen, Wei V; Gorlov, Ivan P; Lynch, Patrick M; Scott, Rodney J; Frazier, Marsha L

2013-02-01

Heterogeneity in age of onset of colorectal cancer in individuals with mutations in DNA mismatch repair genes (Lynch syndrome) suggests the influence of other lifestyle and genetic modifiers. We hypothesized that genes regulating the cell cycle influence the observed heterogeneity as cell cycle-related genes respond to DNA damage by arresting the cell cycle to provide time for repair and induce transcription of genes that facilitate repair. We examined the association of 1456 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 128 cell cycle-related genes and 31 DNA repair-related genes in 485 non-Hispanic white participants with Lynch syndrome to determine whether there are SNPs associated with age of onset of colorectal cancer. Genotyping was performed on an Illumina GoldenGate platform, and data were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, Cox regression analysis and classification and regression tree (CART) methods. Ten SNPs were independently significant in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model after correcting for multiple comparisons (P < 5 × 10(-4)). Furthermore, risk modeling using CART analysis defined combinations of genotypes for these SNPs with which subjects could be classified into low-risk, moderate-risk and high-risk groups that had median ages of colorectal cancer onset of 63, 50 and 42 years, respectively. The age-associated risk of colorectal cancer in the high-risk group was more than four times the risk in the low-risk group (hazard ratio = 4.67, 95% CI = 3.16-6.92). The additional genetic markers identified may help in refining risk groups for more tailored screening and follow-up of non-Hispanic white patients with Lynch syndrome.

Cell cycle–related genes as modifiers of age of onset of colorectal cancer in Lynch syndrome: a large-scale study in non-Hispanic white patients

PubMed Central

Chen, Jinyun; Pande, Mala

2013-01-01

Heterogeneity in age of onset of colorectal cancer in individuals with mutations in DNA mismatch repair genes (Lynch syndrome) suggests the influence of other lifestyle and genetic modifiers. We hypothesized that genes regulating the cell cycle influence the observed heterogeneity as cell cycle–related genes respond to DNA damage by arresting the cell cycle to provide time for repair and induce transcription of genes that facilitate repair. We examined the association of 1456 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 128 cell cycle–related genes and 31 DNA repair–related genes in 485 non-Hispanic white participants with Lynch syndrome to determine whether there are SNPs associated with age of onset of colorectal cancer. Genotyping was performed on an Illumina GoldenGate platform, and data were analyzed using Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, Cox regression analysis and classification and regression tree (CART) methods. Ten SNPs were independently significant in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model after correcting for multiple comparisons (P < 5×10–4). Furthermore, risk modeling using CART analysis defined combinations of genotypes for these SNPs with which subjects could be classified into low-risk, moderate-risk and high-risk groups that had median ages of colorectal cancer onset of 63, 50 and 42 years, respectively. The age-associated risk of colorectal cancer in the high-risk group was more than four times the risk in the low-risk group (hazard ratio = 4.67, 95% CI = 3.16–6.92). The additional genetic markers identified may help in refining risk groups for more tailored screening and follow-up of non-Hispanic white patients with Lynch syndrome. PMID:23125224

Predictors of unsuccessful outcome in cemented femoral revisions using bone impaction grafting; Cox regression analysis of 208 cases.

PubMed

Te Stroet, Martijn A J; Rijnen, Wim H C; Gardeniers, Jean W M; Schreurs, B Willem; Hannink, Gerjon

2016-09-29

Despite improvements in the technique of femoral impaction bone grafting, reconstruction failures still can occur. Therefore, the aim of our study was to determine risk factors for the endpoint re-revision for any reason. We used prospectively collected demographic, clinical and surgical data of all 202 patients who underwent 208 femoral revisions using the X-change Femoral Revision System (Stryker-Howmedica), fresh-frozen morcellised allograft and a cemented polished Exeter stem in our department from 1991 to 2007. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed to identify potential factors associated with re-revision. The mean follow-up was 10.6 (5-21) years. The cumulative re-revision rate was 6.3% (13/208). After univariable selection, sex, age, body mass index (BMI), American Association of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, type of removed femoral component, and mesh used for reconstruction were included in multivariable regression analysis.In the multivariable analysis, BMI was the only factor that was significantly associated with the risk of re-revision after bone impaction grafting (BMI ≥30 vs. BMI <30, HR = 6.54 [95% CI 1.89-22.65]; p = 0.003). BMI was the only factor associated with the risk of re-revision for any reason. Besides BMI also other factors, such as Endoklinik score and the type of removed femoral component, can provide guidance in the process of preclinical decision making. With the knowledge obtained from this study, preoperative patient selection, informed consent, and treatment protocols can be better adjusted to the individual patient who needs to undergo a femoral revision with impaction bone grafting.

Hospital of diagnosis and probability of having surgical treatment for resectable gastric cancer.

PubMed

van Putten, M; Verhoeven, R H A; van Sandick, J W; Plukker, J T M; Lemmens, V E P P; Wijnhoven, B P L; Nieuwenhuijzen, G A P

2016-02-01

Gastric cancer surgery is increasingly being centralized in the Netherlands, whereas the diagnosis is often made in hospitals where gastric cancer surgery is not performed. The aim of this study was to assess whether hospital of diagnosis affects the probability of undergoing surgery and its impact on overall survival. All patients with potentially curable gastric cancer according to stage (cT1/1b-4a, cN0-2, cM0) diagnosed between 2005 and 2013 were selected from The Netherlands Cancer Registry. Multilevel logistic regression was used to examine the probability of undergoing surgery according to hospital of diagnosis. The effect of variation in probability of undergoing surgery among hospitals of diagnosis on overall survival during the intervals 2005-2009 and 2010-2013 was examined by using Cox regression analysis. A total of 5620 patients with potentially curable gastric cancer, diagnosed in 91 hospitals, were included. The proportion of patients who underwent surgery ranged from 53.1 to 83.9 per cent according to hospital of diagnosis (P < 0.001); after multivariable adjustment for patient and tumour characteristics it ranged from 57.0 to 78.2 per cent (P < 0.001). Multivariable Cox regression showed that patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2013 in hospitals with a low probability of patients undergoing curative treatment had worse overall survival (hazard ratio 1.21; P < 0.001). The large variation in probability of receiving surgery for gastric cancer between hospitals of diagnosis and its impact on overall survival indicates that gastric cancer decision-making is suboptimal. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Gastric Bypass Surgery Produces a Durable Reduction in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Reduces the Long-Term Risks of Congestive Heart Failure.

PubMed

Benotti, Peter N; Wood, G Craig; Carey, David J; Mehra, Vishal C; Mirshahi, Tooraj; Lent, Michelle R; Petrick, Anthony T; Still, Christopher; Gerhard, Glenn S; Hirsch, Annemarie G

2017-05-23

Obesity and its association with reduced life expectancy are well established, with cardiovascular disease as one of the major causes of fatality. Metabolic surgery is a powerful intervention for severe obesity, resulting in improvement in comorbid diseases and in cardiovascular risk factors. This study investigates the relationship between metabolic surgery and long-term cardiovascular events. A cohort of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB) patients was tightly matched by age, body mass index, sex, Framingham Risk Score, smoking history, use of antihypertension medication, diabetes mellitus status, and calendar year with a concurrent cohort of nonoperated control patients. The primary study end points of major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, and congestive heart failure) were evaluated using Cox regression. Secondary end points of longitudinal cardiovascular risk factors were evaluated using repeated-measures regression. The RYGB and matched controls (N=1724 in each cohort) were followed for up to 12 years after surgery (overall median of 6.3 years). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a statistically significant reduction in incident major composite cardiovascular events ( P =0.017) and congestive heart failure (0.0077) for the RYGB cohort. Adjusted Cox regression models confirmed the reductions in severe composite cardiovascular events in the RYGB cohort (hazard ratio=0.58, 95% CI=0.42-0.82). Improvements of cardiovascular risk factors (eg, 10-year cardiovascular risk score, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, systolic blood pressure, and diabetes mellitus) were observed within the RYGB cohort after surgery. Gastric bypass is associated with a reduced risk of major cardiovascular events and the development of congestive heart failure. © 2017 The Authors and Geisinger Clinic. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Sudden cardiac death in non-dialysis chronic kidney disease patients.

PubMed

Caravaca, Francisco; Chávez, Edgar; Alvarado, Raúl; García-Pino, Guadalupe; Luna, Enrique

2016-01-01

A relatively high proportion of deaths in dialysis patients occur suddenly and unexpectedly. The incidence of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in non-dialysis advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages has been less well investigated. This study aims to determine the incidence and predictors of SCD in a cohort of 1078 patients with CKD not yet on dialysis. Prospective observational cohort study, which included patients with advanced CKD not yet on dialysis (stage 4-5). The association between baseline variables and SCD was assessed using Cox and competing-risk (Fine and Grey) regression models. Demographic, clinical information, medication use, and baseline biochemical parameters of potential interest were included as covariates. During the study period (median follow-up time 12 months), 210 patients died (19%), and SCD occurred in 34 cases (16% of total deaths). All-cause mortality and SCD incidence rates were 113 (95% CI: 99-128), and 18 (95% CI: 13-26) events per 1000 patients/year, respectively. By Cox regression analysis, covariates significantly associated with SCD were: Age, comorbidity index, and treatment with antiplatelet drugs. This latter covariate showed a beneficial effect over the development of SCD. By competing-risk regression, in which the competing event was non-sudden death from any cause, only age and comorbidity index remained significantly associated with SCD. SCD is relatively common in non-dialysis advanced CKD patients. SCD was closely related to age and comorbidity, and some indirect data from this study suggest that unrecognised or undertreated cardiovascular disease may predispose to a higher risk of SCD. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Prognostic Factors for Neurologic Outcome in Patients with Carotid Artery Stenting

PubMed Central

Hung, Chi-Sheng; Lin, Mao-Shin; Chen, Ying-Hsien; Huang, Ching-Chang; Li, Hung-Yuan; Kao, Hsien-Li

2016-01-01

Background Carotid artery stenting (CAS) is a valid treatment for patients with carotid artery stenosis. The long-term outcome and prognostic factors in Asian population after CAS are not clear. This study aimed to identify the prognostic factors among Asian patients who have undergone CAS. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 246 patients with CAS. Annual carotid duplex ultrasound was used to identify restenosis. Peri-procedural complications, restenosis, neurologic outcomes, and mortality were recorded. Cox regression analyses were used to identify prognostic factors. Results The mean follow-up time was 49.2 months. Procedural success was achieved in 237 patients (98.3%), and protection devices were used in 208 patients (84.5%). Within 30 days of CAS, 13 (4.3% per procedure) peri-procedural complications occurred. During the follow-up period, 24 (9.7%) patients developed restenosis, and 37 (15.0%) developed ischemic strokes. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, head and neck radiotherapy [hazard ratio (HR) = 9.9, 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.38-29.1, p < .001], stent diameter (HR = 0.72, 95% CI, 0.58-0.89, p = .003), and predilatation (HR = 3.08 95% CI, 1.21-7.81, p = .018) were independent predictors for restenosis. In Cox regression analysis, hypercholesterolemia (HR = 0.25, 95% CI, 0.07-0.94, p = .04), head and neck radiotherapy (HR = 6.2, 95% CI, 1.8-21.3, p = .004), and restenosis (HR = 3.6, 95% CI, 1.1-11.18, p = .04) were predictors for recurrent ipsilateral ischemic stroke. Conclusions CAS provides reliable long-term results in Asian patients with carotid stenosis. Restenosis is associated with an increased rate of recurrent stroke and should be monitored carefully following CAS. PMID:27122951

Protein-coding genes combined with long noncoding RNA as a novel transcriptome molecular staging model to predict the survival of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Guo, Jin-Cheng; Wu, Yang; Chen, Yang; Pan, Feng; Wu, Zhi-Yong; Zhang, Jia-Sheng; Wu, Jian-Yi; Xu, Xiu-E; Zhao, Jian-Mei; Li, En-Min; Zhao, Yi; Xu, Li-Yan

2018-04-09

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is the predominant subtype of esophageal carcinoma in China. This study was to develop a staging model to predict outcomes of patients with ESCC. Using Cox regression analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), partitioning clustering, Kaplan-Meier analysis, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis, we mined the Gene Expression Omnibus database to determine the expression profiles of genes in 179 patients with ESCC from GSE63624 and GSE63622 dataset. Univariate cox regression analysis of the GSE63624 dataset revealed that 2404 protein-coding genes (PCGs) and 635 long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) were associated with the survival of patients with ESCC. PCA categorized these PCGs and lncRNAs into three principal components (PCs), which were used to cluster the patients into three groups. ROC analysis demonstrated that the predictive ability of PCG-lncRNA PCs when applied to new patients was better than that of the tumor-node-metastasis staging (area under ROC curve [AUC]: 0.69 vs. 0.65, P < 0.05). Accordingly, we constructed a molecular disaggregated model comprising one lncRNA and two PCGs, which we designated as the LSB staging model using CART analysis in the GSE63624 dataset. This LSB staging model classified the GSE63622 dataset of patients into three different groups, and its effectiveness was validated by analysis of another cohort of 105 patients. The LSB staging model has clinical significance for the prognosis prediction of patients with ESCC and may serve as a three-gene staging microarray.

A prospective 10-year study of metal ceramic single crowns and fixed dental prosthesis retainers in private practice settings.

PubMed

Reitemeier, Bernd; Hänsel, Kristina; Kastner, Christian; Weber, Anke; Walter, Michael H

2013-03-01

Metal ceramic restorations are widely used in prosthodontics, but long-term data on their clinical performance in private practice settings based on prospective trials are sparse. This clinical trial was designed to provide realistic long-term survival rates for different outcomes related to tooth loss, crown loss, and metal ceramic defect. Ninety-five participants were provided with 190 noble metal ceramic single crowns and 138 participants with 276 fixed dental prosthesis retainer crowns on vital posterior teeth. Follow-up examinations were scheduled 2 weeks after insertion, annually up to 8 years, and after 10 years. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses, Mantel-Cox logrank tests, and Cox regression analyses were conducted. Because of variations in the time of the last examinations, the maximum observation period was 12.1 years. For the primary outcome 'loss of crown or tooth', the Kaplan-Meier survival rate was 94.3% ±1.8% (standard error) at 8.0 years (last outcome event) for single crowns and 94.4% ±1.5% at 11.0 years for fixed dental prosthesis retainer crowns. The difference between the survival functions was not significant (P>.05). For the secondary outcome 'metal ceramic defect', the survival rate was 88.8% ±3.2% at 11.0 years for single crowns and 81.7% ±3.5% at 11.0 years for fixed dental prosthesis retainer crowns. In Cox regression models, the only significant covariates for the outcome event 'metal ceramic defect' were bruxism in the medical history (single crowns) and signs and symptoms of bruxism (fixed dental prosthesis retainer crowns) with hazard ratios of 3.065 (95% CI 1.063 - 8.832) and 2.554 (95% CI 1.307 - 4.992). Metal ceramic crowns provided in private practice settings show good longevity. Bruxism appears to indicate a risk for metal ceramic defects. Copyright © 2013 The Editorial Council of the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

On the use of Cox regression to examine the temporal clustering of flooding and heavy precipitation across the central United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallakpour, Iman; Villarini, Gabriele; Jones, Michael P.; Smith, James A.

2017-08-01

The central United States is plagued by frequent catastrophic flooding, such as the flood events of 1993, 2008, 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2016. The goal of this study is to examine whether it is possible to describe the occurrence of flood and heavy precipitation events at the sub-seasonal scale in terms of variations in the climate system. Daily streamflow and precipitation time series over the central United States (defined here to include North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan) are used in this study. We model the occurrence/non-occurrence of a flood and heavy precipitation event over time using regression models based on Cox processes, which can be viewed as a generalization of Poisson processes. Rather than assuming that an event (i.e., flooding or precipitation) occurs independently of the occurrence of the previous one (as in Poisson processes), Cox processes allow us to account for the potential presence of temporal clustering, which manifests itself in an alternation of quiet and active periods. Here we model the occurrence/non-occurrence of flood and heavy precipitation events using two climate indices as time-varying covariates: the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA). We find that AO and/or PNA are important predictors in explaining the temporal clustering in flood occurrences in over 78% of the stream gages we considered. Similar results are obtained when working with heavy precipitation events. Analyses of the sensitivity of the results to different thresholds used to identify events lead to the same conclusions. The findings of this work highlight that variations in the climate system play a critical role in explaining the occurrence of flood and heavy precipitation events at the sub-seasonal scale over the central United States.

Urinary proteomics for prediction of mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and microalbuminuria.

PubMed

Currie, Gemma E; von Scholten, Bernt Johan; Mary, Sheon; Flores Guerrero, Jose-Luis; Lindhardt, Morten; Reinhard, Henrik; Jacobsen, Peter K; Mullen, William; Parving, Hans-Henrik; Mischak, Harald; Rossing, Peter; Delles, Christian

2018-04-06

The urinary proteomic classifier CKD273 has shown promise for prediction of progressive diabetic nephropathy (DN). Whether it is also a determinant of mortality and cardiovascular disease in patients with microalbuminuria (MA) is unknown. Urine samples were obtained from 155 patients with type 2 diabetes and confirmed microalbuminuria. Proteomic analysis was undertaken using capillary electrophoresis coupled to mass spectrometry to determine the CKD273 classifier score. A previously defined CKD273 threshold of 0.343 for identification of DN was used to categorise the cohort in Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models with all-cause mortality as the primary endpoint. Outcomes were traced through national health registers after 6 years. CKD273 correlated with urine albumin excretion rate (UAER) (r = 0.481, p = <0.001), age (r = 0.238, p = 0.003), coronary artery calcium (CAC) score (r = 0.236, p = 0.003), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) (r = 0.190, p = 0.018) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (r = 0.265, p = 0.001). On multivariate analysis only UAER (β = 0.402, p < 0.001) and eGFR (β = - 0.184, p = 0.039) were statistically significant determinants of CKD273. Twenty participants died during follow-up. CKD273 was a determinant of mortality (log rank [Mantel-Cox] p = 0.004), and retained significance (p = 0.048) after adjustment for age, sex, blood pressure, NT-proBNP and CAC score in a Cox regression model. A multidimensional biomarker can provide information on outcomes associated with its primary diagnostic purpose. Here we demonstrate that the urinary proteomic classifier CKD273 is associated with mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes and MA even when adjusted for other established cardiovascular and renal biomarkers.

Particle-size distribution modified effective medium theory and validation by magneto-dielectric Co-Ti substituted BaM ferrite composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qifan; Chen, Yajie; Harris, Vincent G.

2018-05-01

This letter reports an extended effective medium theory (EMT) including particle-size distribution functions to maximize the magnetic properties of magneto-dielectric composites. It is experimentally verified by Co-Ti substituted barium ferrite (BaCoxTixFe12-2xO19)/wax composites with specifically designed particle-size distributions. In the form of an integral equation, the extended EMT formula essentially takes the size-dependent parameters of magnetic particle fillers into account. It predicts the effective permeability of magneto-dielectric composites with various particle-size distributions, indicating an optimal distribution for a population of magnetic particles. The improvement of the optimized effective permeability is significant concerning magnetic particles whose properties are strongly size dependent.

Determinants of U.S. Prescription Drug Utilization using County Level Data.

PubMed

Nianogo, Thierry; Okunade, Albert; Fofana, Demba; Chen, Weiwei

2016-05-01

Prescription drugs are the third largest component of U.S. healthcare expenditures. The 2006 Medicare Part D and the 2010 Affordable Care Act are catalysts for further growths in utilization becuase of insurance expansion effects. This research investigating the determinants of prescription drug utilization is timely, methodologically novel, and policy relevant. Differences in population health status, access to care, socioeconomics, demographics, and variations in per capita number of scripts filled at retail pharmacies across the U.S.A. justify fitting separate econometric models to county data of the states partitioned into low, medium, and high prescription drug users. Given the skewed distribution of per capita number of filled prescriptions (response variable), we fit the variance stabilizing Box-Cox power transformation regression models to 2011 county level data for investigating the correlates of prescription drug utilization separately for low, medium, and high utilization states. Maximum likelihood regression parameter estimates, including the optimal Box-Cox λ power transformations, differ across high (λ = 0.214), medium (λ = 0.942), and low (λ = 0.302) prescription drug utilization models. The estimated income elasticities of -0.634, 0.031, and -0.532 in high, medium, and low utilization models suggest that the economic behavior of prescriptions is not invariant across different utilization levels. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Prognostic significance of hemoglobin level in patients with congestive heart failure and normal ejection fraction.

PubMed

Varadarajan, Padmini; Gandhi, Siddharth; Sharma, Sanjay; Umakanthan, Branavan; Pai, Ramdas G

2006-10-01

Previous studies have shown low hemoglobin (Hb) to have an adverse effect on survival in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) and reduced left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (EF); but its effect on survival in patients with CHF and normal EF is not known. This study sought to determine whether low Hb has an effect on survival in patients with both CHF and normal EF. Detailed chart reviews were performed by medical residents on 2,246 patients (48% with normal EF) with a discharge diagnosis of CHF in a large tertiary care hospital from 1990 to 1999. The CHF diagnosis was validated using the Framingham criteria. Mortality data were obtained from the National Death Index. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models. By Kaplan-Meier analysis, low Hb (< 12 gm/dl) compared with normal hemoglobin was associated with a lower 5-year survival in patients with CHF and both normal (38 vs. 50%, p = 0.0008) and reduced (35 vs. 48%, p = 0.0009) EF. Using the Cox regression model, low Hb was an independent predictor of mortality after adjusting for age, gender, renal dysfunction, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and EF in both groups of patients. Low Hb has an independent adverse effect on survival in patients with CHF and both normal and reduced EF in both groups of patients.

Differing manifestations of hepatitis C and tacrolimus on hospitalized diabetes mellitus occurring after kidney transplantation.

PubMed

Abbott, Kevin C; Bernet, Victor J; Agodoa, Lawrence Y; Yuan, Christina M

2005-09-01

Previous studies suggest the association of recipient hepatitis C seropositivity (HCV+) and use of tacrolimus (TAC) with post-transplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM) may differ by manifestations of type I or type II diabetes, but this has not been assessed in the era of current immunosuppression. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 10,342 Medicare primary renal transplantation recipients without evidence of diabetes at the time of listing in the United States Renal Data System between January 1, 1998 and July 31, 2000, followed until December 31, 2000. Outcomes were hospitalizations for a primary diagnosis of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) or hyperglycemic hyperosmolar syndrome (HHS). Cox regression analysis was used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (AHR) for time to DKA or HHS, stratified by diabetes status at the time of transplant. In Cox regression analysis, use of TAC at discharge was independently associated with shorter time to DKA (AHR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.05-3.37, p=0.034) but not HHS. In contrast, recipient HCV+ was independently associated with shorter time to HHS (AHR, 3.90; 1.59-9.60, p=.003), but not DKA. There was no interaction between TAC and HCV+ for either outcome. These results confirm earlier findings that TAC and HCV+ may mediate the risk of PTDM through different mechanisms, even in the modern era.

A generalized multivariate regression model for modelling ocean wave heights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X. L.; Feng, Y.; Swail, V. R.

2012-04-01

In this study, a generalized multivariate linear regression model is developed to represent the relationship between 6-hourly ocean significant wave heights (Hs) and the corresponding 6-hourly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fields. The model is calibrated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis of Hs and MSLP fields for 1981-2000, and is validated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis for 2001-2010 and ERA40 reanalysis of Hs and MSLP for 1958-2001. The performance of the fitted model is evaluated in terms of Pierce skill score, frequency bias index, and correlation skill score. Being not normally distributed, wave heights are subjected to a data adaptive Box-Cox transformation before being used in the model fitting. Also, since 6-hourly data are being modelled, lag-1 autocorrelation must be and is accounted for. The models with and without Box-Cox transformation, and with and without accounting for autocorrelation, are inter-compared in terms of their prediction skills. The fitted MSLP-Hs relationship is then used to reconstruct historical wave height climate from the 6-hourly MSLP fields taken from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al. 2011), and to project possible future wave height climates using CMIP5 model simulations of MSLP fields. The reconstructed and projected wave heights, both seasonal means and maxima, are subject to a trend analysis that allows for non-linear (polynomial) trends.

Investigation of standardized administration of anti-platelet drugs and its effect on the prognosis of patients with coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Ding, Chao; Zhang, Jianhua; Li, Rongcheng; Wang, Jiacai; Hu, Yongcang; Chen, Yanyan; Li, Xiannan; Xu, Yan

2017-10-01

The aim of the present study was to explore the effect of adherence to standardized administration of anti-platelet drugs on the prognosis of patients with coronary heart disease. A total of 144 patients newly diagnosed with coronary heart disease at Lu'an Shili Hospital of Anhui Province (Lu'an, China) between June 2010 and June 2012 were followed up. Kaplan-Meier curves and the Cox regression model were used to evaluate the effects of standardized administration of anti-platelet drugs on primary and secondary end-point events. Of the patients with coronary heart disease, 109 (76%) patients took standard anti-platelet drugs following discharge. Kaplan-Meier curve and Cox regression analysis showed that standardized administration of anti-platelet drugs reduced the risk of primary end-point events (including all-cause mortality, non-lethal myocardial infarction and stroke) of patients with coronary heart disease [hazard ratio (HR)=0.307; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.099-0.953; P=0.041) and all-cause mortality (HR=0.162; 95% CI: 0.029-0.890; P=0.036); however, standardized administration had no predictive value with regard to secondary end-point events. Standardized administration of anti-platelet drugs obviously reduced the risk of primary end-point events in patients with coronary heart disease, and further analysis showed that only all-cause mortality exhibited a statistically significant reduction.

Social consequences of multiple sclerosis: clinical and demographic predictors - a historical prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Pfleger, C C H; Flachs, E M; Koch-Henriksen, N

2010-11-01

Time to disability pension is one of the endpoints to be used to determine the prognosis of multiple sclerosis (MS) in prospective studies.   To assess the time to cessation of work and receiving disability pension in MS, and how it may depend on gender, type of work and age and symptom at onset. A total of 2240 Danes with onset of definite/probable MS 1980-1989, identified from the Danish MS-Registry, were included. Information on social endpoints was retrieved from Statistics Denmark. Cox regression analyses were used with onset as starting point. Afferent onset symptoms [hazard ratio (HR 0.57)] and non-physical type of work (HR 0.70) were favourable prognostic factors compared with high age at onset, physical work and efferent symptoms at onset. The mean time to disability pension was 13 years for patients with afferent/brainstem onset symptom but 8.7 years for those with efferent onset symptoms (P < 0.0001). The effect of onset symptom was reduced and the effect of sex became significant when all covariates and age at onset were included in multivariate Cox regression. Onset age, type of onset symptom and work are robust predictors of disability pension in MS. Disability pension proves to be a reliable milestone in estimation of the prognosis of MS. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2010 EFNS.

Factors Affecting Discharge to Home of Geriatric Intermediate Care Facility Residents in Japan.

PubMed

Morita, Kojiro; Ono, Sachiko; Ishimaru, Miho; Matsui, Hiroki; Naruse, Takashi; Yasunaga, Hideo

2018-04-01

To investigate factors associated with lower likelihood of discharge to home from geriatric intermediate care facilities in Japan. Retrospective cohort study. We used data from the nationwide long-term care (LTC) insurance claims database (April 2012-March 2014). Study participants were 342,758 individuals newly admitted to 3,459 geriatric intermediate care facilities during the study period. The primary outcome was discharge to home. We performed a multivariable competing-risk Cox regression with adjustment for resident-, facility-, and region-level characteristics. Resident level of care needs and several medical conditions were included as time-varying covariates. Death, admission to a hospital, and admission to another LTC facility were treated as competing risks. During the 2-year follow-up period, 19% of participants were discharged to home. In the multivariable competing-risk Cox regression, the following factors were significantly associated with lower likelihood of discharge to home: older age, higher level of care need, having several medical conditions, private ownership of the facility, more beds in the facility, and more LTC facility beds per 1,000 adults aged 65 and older in the region. Only 19% of residents were discharged to home. Our results are useful for policy-makers to promote discharge to home of older adults in geriatric intermediate care facilities. © 2018, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2018, The American Geriatrics Society.

Recurrence risk model for esophageal cancer after radical surgery.

PubMed

Lu, Jincheng; Tao, Hua; Song, Dan; Chen, Cheng

2013-10-01

The aim of the present study was to construct a risk assessment model which was tested by disease-free survival (DFS) of esophageal cancer after radical surgery. A total of 164 consecutive esophageal cancer patients who had undergone radical surgery between January 2005 and December 2006 were retrospectively analyzed. The cutpoint of value at risk (VaR) was inferred by stem-and-leaf plot, as well as by independent-samples t-test for recurrence-free time, further confirmed by crosstab chi-square test, univariate analysis and Cox regression analysis for DFS. The cutpoint of VaR was 0.3 on the basis of our model. The rate of recurrence was 30.3% (30/99) and 52.3% (34/65) in VaR <0.3 and VaR ≥0.3 (chi-square test, (χ) (2) =7.984, P=0.005), respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year DFS of esophageal cancer after radical surgery was 70.4%, 48.7%, and 45.3%, respectively in VaR ≥0.3, whereas 91.5%, 75.8%, and 67.3%, respectively in VaR <0.3 (Log-rank test, (χ) (2) =9.59, P=0.0020), and further confirmed by Cox regression analysis [hazard ratio =2.10, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2649-3.4751; P=0.0041]. The model could be applied for integrated assessment of recurrence risk after radical surgery for esophageal cancer.

Recurrence risk model for esophageal cancer after radical surgery

PubMed Central

Tao, Hua; Song, Dan; Chen, Cheng

2013-01-01

Objective The aim of the present study was to construct a risk assessment model which was tested by disease-free survival (DFS) of esophageal cancer after radical surgery. Methods A total of 164 consecutive esophageal cancer patients who had undergone radical surgery between January 2005 and December 2006 were retrospectively analyzed. The cutpoint of value at risk (VaR) was inferred by stem-and-leaf plot, as well as by independent-samples t-test for recurrence-free time, further confirmed by crosstab chi-square test, univariate analysis and Cox regression analysis for DFS. Results The cutpoint of VaR was 0.3 on the basis of our model. The rate of recurrence was 30.3% (30/99) and 52.3% (34/65) in VaR <0.3 and VaR ≥0.3 (chi-square test, χ2 =7.984, P=0.005), respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year DFS of esophageal cancer after radical surgery was 70.4%, 48.7%, and 45.3%, respectively in VaR ≥0.3, whereas 91.5%, 75.8%, and 67.3%, respectively in VaR <0.3 (Log-rank test, χ2 =9.59, P=0.0020), and further confirmed by Cox regression analysis [hazard ratio =2.10, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2649-3.4751; P=0.0041]. Conclusions The model could be applied for integrated assessment of recurrence risk after radical surgery for esophageal cancer. PMID:24255579

Prognostic significance of performing universal HER2 testing in cases of advanced gastric cancer.

PubMed

Jiménez-Fonseca, Paula; Carmona-Bayonas, Alberto; Sánchez Lorenzo, Maria Luisa; Plazas, Javier Gallego; Custodio, Ana; Hernández, Raquel; Garrido, Marcelo; García, Teresa; Echavarría, Isabel; Cano, Juana María; Rodríguez Palomo, Alberto; Mangas, Monserrat; Macías Declara, Ismael; Ramchandani, Avinash; Visa, Laura; Viudez, Antonio; Buxó, Elvira; Díaz-Serrano, Asunción; López, Carlos; Azkarate, Aitor; Longo, Federico; Castañón, Eduardo; Sánchez Bayona, Rodrigo; Pimentel, Paola; Limón, Maria Luisa; Cerdá, Paula; Álvarez Llosa, Renata; Serrano, Raquel; Lobera, Maria Pilar Felices; Alsina, María; Hurtado Nuño, Alicia; Gómez-Martin, Carlos

2017-05-01

Trastuzumab significantly improves overall survival (OS) when added to cisplatin and fluoropyrimidine as a treatment for HER2-positive advanced gastric cancers (AGC). The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the gradual implementation of HER2 testing on patient prognosis in a national registry of AGC. This Spanish National Cancer Registry includes cases who were consecutively recruited at 28 centers from January 2008 to January 2016. The effect of missing HER2 status was assessed using stratified Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression. The rate of HER2 testing increased steadily over time, from 58.3 % in 2008 to 92.9 % in 2016. HER2 was positive in 194 tumors (21.3 %). In the stratified Cox PH regression, each 1 % increase in patients who were not tested for HER2 at the institutions was associated with an approximately 0.3 % increase in the risk of death: hazard ratio, 1.0035 (CI 95 %, 1.001-1.005), P = 0.0019. Median OS was significantly lower at institutions with the highest proportions of patients who were not tested for HER2. Patients treated at centers that took longer to implement HER2 testing exhibited worse clinical outcomes. The speed of implementation behaves as a quality-of-care indicator. Reviewed guidelines on HER2 testing should be used to achieve this goal in a timely manner.

Utility and direct costs: ankylosing spondylitis compared with rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Verstappen, S M M; Jacobs, J W G; van der Heijde, D M; van der Linden, Sj; Verhoef, C M; Bijlsma, J W J; Boonen, A

2007-06-01

To compare utility and disease-specific direct costs between patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in the Netherlands. Patients with AS and those with RA completed questions on disease characteristics, the EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) to assess utility, and questionnaire resource utilisation. Resource utilisation was assessed prospectively in AS, but retrospectively in RA. True cost estimates (2003) were used to calculate the costs. Differences in disease characteristics between AS and RA were described, and determinants of EQ-5D utility and costs were explored by Cox proportional hazard regressions. 576 patients with RA and 132 with AS completed the questionnaires. EQ-5D utility (0.63 vs 0.7) was lower, and annual direct costs higher in RA (euro5167 vs euro2574). In multivariate Cox proportional hazard regressions, there was no difference in utility between the diagnostic groups, but patients with RA incurred higher direct costs after controlling for age, gender and disease duration. In patients with RA and patients with AS, who are under the care of a rheumatologist, utility is equally reduced, but healthcare costs are higher in RA after controlling for age, gender and disease duration. These data can be helpful to provide insights into the differences and similarities between the healthcare needs of both patient groups and to identify issues for further research and for policy in healthcare organisations.

Long-term outcomes of dental implants placed in elderly patients: a retrospective clinical and radiographic analysis.

PubMed

Park, Jung-Chul; Baek, Won-Sun; Choi, Seong-Ho; Cho, Kyoo-Sung; Jung, Ui-Won

2017-02-01

The aim of this retrospective study was to determine the clinical and the radiographic outcomes of dental implants placed in elderly people older than 65 years. In total, 902 implants in 346 patients (age: 65-89 years) were followed up for 2-17 years following the implant surgery. The survival rate of these implants was recorded and analyzed. Changes in marginal bone levels were also analyzed in serial radiographs, and Cox regression analysis for implant loss was performed. The survival rates were 95.39% and 99.98% in the implant- and patient-based analyses, respectively (involving a total of 29 implant failures), and the marginal bone loss at the implants was 0.17 ± 0.71 mm (mean ± SD). The number of failures was greatest in patients aged 65-69 years. The Cox regression with shared frailty analysis showed that implant loss was significantly greater in those aged 65-69 years than in those aged 70-74 years (P < 0.05), and it varied between specific implant systems. Within the limitations of this retrospective study, it was concluded that implant therapy can be successfully provided to elderly patients and that age alone does not seem to affect the implant survival rate. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Establishment of the prediction model for ischemic cardiovascular disease of elderly male population under current health care program].

PubMed

Chen, Jin-hong; Wu, Hai-yun; He, Kun-lun; He, Yao; Qin, Yin-he

2010-10-01

To establish and verify the prediction model for ischemic cardiovascular disease (ICVD) among the elderly population who were under the current health care programs. Statistical analysis on data from physical examination, hospitalization of the past years, from questionnaire and telephone interview was carried out in May, 2003. Data was from a hospital which implementing a health care program. Baseline population with a proportion of 4:1 was randomly selected to generate both module group and verification group. Baseline data was induced to make the verification group into regression model of module group and to generate the predictive value. Distinguished ability with area under ROC curve and the predictive veracity were verified through comparing the predictive incidence rate and actual incidence rate of every deciles group by Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Predictive veracity of the prediction model at population level was verified through comparing the predictive 6-year incidence rates of ICVD with actual 6-year accumulative incidence rates of ICVD with error rate calculated. The samples included 2271 males over the age of 65 with 1817 people for modeling population and 454 for verified population. All of the samples were stratified into two layers to establish hierarchical Cox proportional hazard regression model, including one advanced age group (greater than or equal to 75 years old), and another elderly group (less than 75 years old). Data from the statically analysis showed that the risk factors in aged group were age, systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine level, fasting blood glucose level, while protective factor was high density lipoprotein;in advanced age group, the risk factors were body weight index, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol level, serum creatinine level, fasting blood glucose level, while protective factor was HDL-C. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) and 95%CI were 0.723 and 0.687 - 0.759 respectively. Discriminating power was good. All individual predictive ICVD cumulative incidence and actual incidence were analyzed using Hosmer-Lemeshow test, χ(2) = 1.43, P = 0.786, showing that the predictive veracity was good. The stratified Cox Hazards Regression model was used to establish prediction model of the aged male population under a certain health care program. The common prediction factor of the two age groups were: systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine level, fasting blood glucose level and HDL-C. The area under the ROC curve of the verification group was 0.723, showing that the distinguished ability was good and the predict ability at the individual level and at the group level were also satisfactory. It was feasible to using Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Model for predicting the population groups.

Temperature dependence of the photodissociation of CO2 from high vibrational levels: 205-230 nm imaging studies of CO(X1Σ+) and O(3P, 1D) products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutradhar, S.; Samanta, B. R.; Samanta, A. K.; Reisler, H.

2017-07-01

The 205-230 nm photodissociation of vibrationally excited CO2 at temperatures up to 1800 K was studied using Resonance Enhanced Multiphoton Ionization (REMPI) and time-sliced Velocity Map Imaging (VMI). CO2 molecules seeded in He were heated in an SiC tube attached to a pulsed valve and supersonically expanded to create a molecular beam of rotationally cooled but vibrationally hot CO2. Photodissociation was observed from vibrationally excited CO2 with internal energies up to about 20 000 cm-1, and CO(X1Σ+), O(3P), and O(1D) products were detected by REMPI. The large enhancement in the absorption cross section with increasing CO2 vibrational excitation made this investigation feasible. The internal energies of heated CO2 molecules that absorbed 230 nm radiation were estimated from the kinetic energy release (KER) distributions of CO(X1Σ+) products in v″ = 0. At 230 nm, CO2 needs to have at least 4000 cm-1 of rovibrational energy to absorb the UV radiation and produce CO(X1Σ+) + O(3P). CO2 internal energies in excess of 16 000 cm-1 were confirmed by observing O(1D) products. It is likely that initial absorption from levels with high bending excitation accesses both the A1B2 and B1A2 states, explaining the nearly isotropic angular distributions of the products. CO(X1Σ+) product internal energies were estimated from REMPI spectroscopy, and the KER distributions of the CO(X1Σ+), O(3P), and O(1D) products were obtained by VMI. The CO product internal energy distributions change with increasing CO2 temperature, suggesting that more than one dynamical pathway is involved when the internal energy of CO2 (and the corresponding available energy) increases. The KER distributions of O(1D) and O(3P) show broad internal energy distributions in the CO(X1Σ+) cofragment, extending up to the maximum allowed by energy but peaking at low KER values. Although not all the observations can be explained at this time, with the aid of available theoretical studies of CO2 VUV photodissociation and O + CO recombination, it is proposed that following UV absorption, the two lowest lying triplet states, a3B2 and b3A2, and the ground electronic state are involved in the dynamical pathways that lead to product formation.

Integrated Cox's model for predicting survival time of glioblastoma multiforme.

PubMed

Ai, Zhibing; Li, Longti; Fu, Rui; Lu, Jing-Min; He, Jing-Dong; Li, Sen

2017-04-01

Glioblastoma multiforme is the most common primary brain tumor and is highly lethal. This study aims to figure out signatures for predicting the survival time of patients with glioblastoma multiforme. Clinical information, messenger RNA expression, microRNA expression, and single-nucleotide polymorphism array data of patients with glioblastoma multiforme were retrieved from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Patients were separated into two groups by using 1 year as a cutoff, and a logistic regression model was used to figure out any variables that can predict whether the patient was able to live longer than 1 year. Furthermore, Cox's model was used to find out features that were correlated with the survival time. Finally, a Cox model integrated the significant clinical variables, messenger RNA expression, microRNA expression, and single-nucleotide polymorphism was built. Although the classification method failed, signatures of clinical features, messenger RNA expression levels, and microRNA expression levels were figured out by using Cox's model. However, no single-nucleotide polymorphisms related to prognosis were found. The selected clinical features were age at initial diagnosis, Karnofsky score, and race, all of which had been suggested to correlate with survival time. Both of the two significant microRNAs, microRNA-221 and microRNA-222, were targeted to p27 Kip1 protein, which implied the important role of p27 Kip1 on the prognosis of glioblastoma multiforme patients. Our results suggested that survival modeling was more suitable than classification to figure out prognostic biomarkers for patients with glioblastoma multiforme. An integrated model containing clinical features, messenger RNA levels, and microRNA expression levels was built, which has the potential to be used in clinics and thus to improve the survival status of glioblastoma multiforme patients.

Added prognostic value of CT characteristics and IASLC/ATS/ERS histologic subtype in surgically resected lung adenocarcinomas.

PubMed

Suh, Young Joo; Lee, Hyun-Ju; Kim, Young Tae; Kang, Chang Hyun; Park, In Kyu; Jeon, Yoon Kyung; Chung, Doo Hyun

2018-06-01

Our study investigates the added value of computed tomography (CT) characteristics, histologic subtype classification of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer (IASLC)/the American Thoracic Society (ATS)/the European Respiratory Society (ERS), and genetic mutation for predicting postoperative prognoses of patients who received curative surgical resections for lung adenocarcinoma. We retrospectively enrolled 988 patients who underwent curative resection for invasive lung adenocarcinoma between October 2007 and December 2013. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to explore the risk of recurrence-free survival, based on the combination of conventional prognostic factors, CT characteristics, IASLC/ATS/ERS histologic subtype, and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations. Incremental prognostic values of CT characteristics, histologic subtype, and EGFR mutations over conventional risk factors were measured by C-statistics. During median follow-up period of 44.7 months (25th to 75th percentile 24.6-59.7 months), postoperative recurrence occurred in 248 patients (25.1%). In univariate Cox proportion hazard model, female sex, tumor size and stage, CT characteristics, and predominant histologic subtype were associated with tumor recurrence (P < 0.05). In multivariate Cox regression model adjusted for tumor size and stage, both CT characteristics and histologic subtype were independent tumor recurrence predictors (P < 0.05). Cox proportion hazard models combining CT characteristics or histologic subtype with size and tumor stage showed higher C-indices (0.763 and 0.767, respectively) than size and stage-only models (C-index 0.759, P > 0.05). CT characteristics and histologic subtype have relatively limited added prognostic values over tumor size and stage in surgically resected lung adenocarcinomas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fetal exposure to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and spontaneous abortions

PubMed Central

Daniel, Sharon; Koren, Gideon; Lunenfeld, Eitan; Bilenko, Natalya; Ratzon, Ronit; Levy, Amalia

2014-01-01

Background: Spontaneous abortion is the most common complication of pregnancy. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are widely used during pregnancy. Published data are inconsistent regarding the risk of spontaneous abortion following exposure to NSAIDs. Methods: We performed a historical cohort study involving all women who conceived between January 2003 and December 2009 and who were admitted for delivery or spontaneous abortion at Soroka Medical Center, Clalit Health Services, Israel. A computerized database of medication dispensation was linked with 2 computerized databases containing information on births and spontaneous abortions. We constructed time-varying Cox regression models and adjusted for maternal age, diabetes mellitus, hypothyroidism, obesity, hypercoagulation or inflammatory conditions, recurrent miscarriage, in vitro fertilization of the current pregnancy, intrauterine contraceptive device, ethnic background, tobacco use and year of admission. Results: The cohort included 65 457 women who conceived during the study period; of these, 58 949 (90.1%) were admitted for a birth and 6508 (9.9%) for spontaneous abortion. A total of 4495 (6.9%) pregnant women were exposed to NSAIDs during the study period. Exposure to NSAIDs was not an independent risk factor for spontaneous abortion (nonselective cyclooxygenase [COX] inhibitors: adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99–1.22; selective COX-2 inhibitors: adjusted HR 1.43, 95% CI 0.79–2.59). There was no increased risk for specific NSAID drugs, except for a significantly increased risk with exposure to indomethacin (adjusted HR 2.8, 95% CI 1.70–4.69). We found no dose–response effect. Interpretation: We found no increased risk of spontaneous abortion following exposure to NSAIDs. Further research is needed to assess the risk following exposure to selective COX-2 inhibitors. PMID:24491470

Combination therapy with telmisartan and parecoxib induces regression of endometriotic lesions.

PubMed

Nenicu, Anca; Gu, Yuan; Körbel, Christina; Menger, Michael D; Laschke, Matthias W

2017-08-01

Telmisartan suppresses the development of endometriotic lesions. However, the drug also up-regulates the expression of COX-2, which has been suggested to promote the progression of endometriosis. Accordingly, in the present study we analysed whether a combination therapy with telmisartan and a COX-2 inhibitor may be more effective in the treatment of endometriotic lesions than the application of telmisartan alone. Endometriotic lesions were induced in the peritoneal cavity of C57BL/6 mice, which were treated daily with an i.p. injection of telmisartan (10 mg·kg -1 ), parecoxib (5 mg·kg -1 ), a combination of telmisartan and parecoxib or vehicle. Therapeutic effects on lesion survival, growth, vascularization, innervation and protein expression were studied over 4 weeks by high-resolution ultrasound imaging as well as immunohistochemical and Western blot analyses. Telmisartan-treated lesions exhibited a significantly reduced lesion volume when compared with vehicle-treated controls and parecoxib-treated lesions. This inhibitory effect of telmisartan was even more pronounced when it was used in combination with parecoxib. The combination therapy resulted in a reduced microvessel density as well as lower numbers of proliferating Ki67-positive cells and higher numbers of apoptotic cleaved caspase-3-positive stromal cells within the lesions. This was associated with a lower expression of COX-2, MMP-9 and p-Akt/Akt when compared with controls. The application of the two drugs further inhibited the ingrowth of nerve fibres into the lesions. Combination therapy with telmisartan and a COX-2 inhibitor represents a novel, effective pharmacological strategy for the treatment of endometriosis. © 2017 The British Pharmacological Society.

Physical activity and survival among Hispanic and non-Hispanic white long-term breast cancer survivors and population-based controls.

PubMed

Pinkston, Christina M; Baumgartner, Richard N; Connor, Avonne E; Boone, Stephanie D; Baumgartner, Kathy B

2015-12-01

We investigated the association of physical activity with survival for 601 Hispanic women and 682 non-Hispanic white women who participated in the population-based breast cancer case-control New Mexico Women's Health Study. We identified 240 deaths among cases diagnosed with a first primary invasive breast cancer between 1992 and 1994, and 88 deaths among controls. Follow-up extended through 2012 for cases and 2008 for controls. Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. Higher levels of total physical activity were inversely associated with all-cause mortality among Hispanic cases (Quartile (Q)4: HR = 0.55, 95% CI 0.31-0.99). A non-significant trend was observed for recreational activity in Hispanic cases also (Q4: HR = 0.50, 95% CI 0.23-1.09, p for trend = 0.08). No significant associations were noted for non-Hispanic white cases or for controls. The results suggest that increasing physical activity may be protective against mortality in Hispanic women with breast cancer, despite reporting lower levels of recreational activity than non-Hispanic white women or Hispanic controls. Public health programs in Hispanic communities should promote physical activity in women as a means of decreasing breast cancer risk and improving survival.

Gestational diabetes and the long-term risk of cataract surgery: A longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Auger, Nathalie; Tang, Tina; Healy-Profitós, Jessica; Paradis, Gilles

2017-11-01

We assessed the long-term risk of cataract following a pregnancy complicated by gestational diabetes. We carried out a longitudinal cohort study of 1,108,541 women who delivered infants between 1989-2013 in Quebec, Canada, with follow-up extending up to 25years later. The cohort included 71,862 women with gestational diabetes and 5247 with cataracts. We used Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of gestational diabetes with subsequent risk of cataract, adjusted for age, parity, socioeconomic status, time period, comorbidity, and type 2 diabetes. Women with gestational diabetes had an elevated incidence of cataract (22.6 per 1000) compared with no gestational diabetes (15.1 per 1000), with 1.15 times the risk (95% CI 1.04-1.28). Women with gestational diabetes who subsequently developed type 2 diabetes had a higher risk of cataract compared with no gestational and type 2 diabetes (HR 3.62, 95% CI 3.01-4.35), but women with gestational diabetes who did not develop type 2 diabetes continued to be at risk (HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.00-1.25). Gestational diabetes may be an independent risk factor for cataract later in life, although risks are greatest for women who subsequently develop type 2 diabetes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The extended leukocyte differential count using the Cytodiff flow cytometric system reveals that higher CD16+ cytotoxic NK+T lymphocyte levels predict superior survival outcomes in patients with metastatic carcinoma.

PubMed

Park, Borae G; Park, Chan-Jeoung; Yoon, Chan-Hee; Jang, Seongsoo; Chi, Hyun-Sook; Ryu, Min-Hee; Kim, Sang-We

2013-05-01

The recently developed Cytodiff flow cytometric system (Beckman Coulter, Miami, FL) enables leukocyte analysis using a single immunophenotyping panel tube composed of six markers and five colors and that can detect 16 leukocyte subpopulations. We performed a preliminary investigation of whether changes in any of 16 leukocyte differentials were associated with survival and treatment outcomes in patients with metastatic carcinoma or not. We measured 16 leukocyte differential counts using the Cytodiff flow cytometric system in peripheral blood samples from 40 patients with metastatic malignancy (27 stomach cancer and 13 lung cancer) before chemotherapy and at 15 day intervals after chemotherapy for 2 months. A higher percentage of CD16+ cytotoxic NK+T lymphocytes was found to be the only significant prognostic factor among by Cox regression analysis and a higher percentage of CD16+ cytotoxic NK+T lymphocytes (>5.0%) showed significantly longer survival outcomes by Kaplan-Meier analysis (P = 0.003). The Cytodiff system enables 16 leukocyte subpopulations in a one tube assay and also can operate with only small amounts of sample, although it cannot differentiate NK cells from T lymphocytes. Hence, the monitoring of all leukocyte subpopulations using Cytodiff flow cytometry may be a helpful prognostic tool for patients with metastatic carcinoma. Copyright © 2012 International Clinical Cytometry Society.

Phase Diagram in a Random Mixture of Two Antiferromagnets with Competing Spin Anisotropies. I

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Someya, Yoshiko

1981-12-01

The phase diagram of a random mixture of two antiferromagnets with competing spin anisotropies (A1-xBx) has been analyzed by extending the theory of Matsubara and Inawashiro, and Oguchi and Ishikawa. In the model assumed, the anisotropy energies are expressed by the anisotropic exchange interactions. According to this formulation, it has been shown that the concentration dependence of TN becomes a function of \\includegraphics{dummy.eps}, where P, Q=A, B; SP is a magnitude of P-spin, and JPQη is a η component of exchange integral between P- and Q-spin). Further, the phase boundary between an AF phase and an OAF (oblique antiferromagnetic) phase at T{=}0 K has been shown to be determined by α({\\equiv}SB/SA), if \\includegraphics{dummy.eps} are given. The obtained phase diagrams for Fe1-xCoxCl2, K2Mn1-xFexF4 and Fe1-xCoxCl2\\cdot2H2O are compared with the experimental ones.

Maximum likelihood estimation for Cox's regression model under nested case-control sampling.

PubMed

Scheike, Thomas H; Juul, Anders

2004-04-01

Nested case-control sampling is designed to reduce the costs of large cohort studies. It is important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a new maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for nested case-control sampling in the context of Cox's proportional hazards model. The MLE is computed by the EM-algorithm, which is easy to implement in the proportional hazards setting. Standard errors are estimated by a numerical profile likelihood approach based on EM aided differentiation. The work was motivated by a nested case-control study that hypothesized that insulin-like growth factor I was associated with ischemic heart disease. The study was based on a population of 3784 Danes and 231 cases of ischemic heart disease where controls were matched on age and gender. We illustrate the use of the MLE for these data and show how the maximum likelihood framework can be used to obtain information additional to the relative risk estimates of covariates.

Change of plant phenophases explained by survival modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templ, Barbara; Fleck, Stefan; Templ, Matthias

2017-05-01

It is known from many studies that plant species show a delay in the timing of flowering events with an increase in latitude and altitude, and an advance with an increase in temperature. Furthermore, in many locations and for many species, flowering dates have advanced over the long-term. New insights using survival modeling are given based on data collected (1970-2010) along a 3000-km long transect from northern to eastern central Europe. We could clearly observe that in the case of dandelion ( Taraxacum officinale) the risk of flowering time, in other words the probability that flowering occurs, is higher for an earlier day of year in later decades. Our approach assume that temperature has greater influence than precipitation on the timing of flowering. Evaluation of the predictive power of tested models suggests that Cox models may be used in plant phenological research. The applied Cox model provides improved predictions of flowering dates compared to traditional regression methods and gives further insights into drivers of phenological events.

Predicting spatio-temporal failure in large scale observational and micro scale experimental systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de las Heras, Alejandro; Hu, Yong

2006-10-01

Forecasting has become an essential part of modern thought, but the practical limitations still are manifold. We addressed future rates of change by comparing models that take into account time, and models that focus more on space. Cox regression confirmed that linear change can be safely assumed in the short-term. Spatially explicit Poisson regression, provided a ceiling value for the number of deforestation spots. With several observed and estimated rates, it was decided to forecast using the more robust assumptions. A Markov-chain cellular automaton thus projected 5-year deforestation in the Amazonian Arc of Deforestation, showing that even a stable rate of change would largely deplete the forest area. More generally, resolution and implementation of the existing models could explain many of the modelling difficulties still affecting forecasting.

A Clinical Decision Support System for Breast Cancer Patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, Ana S.; Alves, Pedro; Jarman, Ian H.; Etchells, Terence A.; Fonseca, José M.; Lisboa, Paulo J. G.

This paper proposes a Web clinical decision support system for clinical oncologists and for breast cancer patients making prognostic assessments, using the particular characteristics of the individual patient. This system comprises three different prognostic modelling methodologies: the clinically widely used Nottingham prognostic index (NPI); the Cox regression modelling and a partial logistic artificial neural network with automatic relevance determination (PLANN-ARD). All three models yield a different prognostic index that can be analysed together in order to obtain a more accurate prognostic assessment of the patient. Missing data is incorporated in the mentioned models, a common issue in medical data that was overcome using multiple imputation techniques. Risk group assignments are also provided through a methodology based on regression trees, where Boolean rules can be obtained expressed with patient characteristics.

Analysis of a genetically structured variance heterogeneity model using the Box-Cox transformation.

PubMed

Yang, Ye; Christensen, Ole F; Sorensen, Daniel

2011-02-01

Over recent years, statistical support for the presence of genetic factors operating at the level of the environmental variance has come from fitting a genetically structured heterogeneous variance model to field or experimental data in various species. Misleading results may arise due to skewness of the marginal distribution of the data. To investigate how the scale of measurement affects inferences, the genetically structured heterogeneous variance model is extended to accommodate the family of Box-Cox transformations. Litter size data in rabbits and pigs that had previously been analysed in the untransformed scale were reanalysed in a scale equal to the mode of the marginal posterior distribution of the Box-Cox parameter. In the rabbit data, the statistical evidence for a genetic component at the level of the environmental variance is considerably weaker than that resulting from an analysis in the original metric. In the pig data, the statistical evidence is stronger, but the coefficient of correlation between additive genetic effects affecting mean and variance changes sign, compared to the results in the untransformed scale. The study confirms that inferences on variances can be strongly affected by the presence of asymmetry in the distribution of data. We recommend that to avoid one important source of spurious inferences, future work seeking support for a genetic component acting on environmental variation using a parametric approach based on normality assumptions confirms that these are met.

Predictors of cardiovascular fitness in sedentary men.

PubMed

Riou, Marie-Eve; Pigeon, Etienne; St-Onge, Josée; Tremblay, Angelo; Marette, André; Weisnagel, S John; Joanisse, Denis R

2009-04-01

The relative contribution of anthropometric and skeletal muscle characteristics to cardiorespiratory fitness was studied in sedentary men. Cardiorespiratory fitness (maximal oxygen consumption) was assessed using an incremental bicycle ergometer protocol in 37 men aged 34-53 years. Vastus lateralis muscle biopsy samples were used to assess fiber type composition (I, IIA, IIX) and areas, capillary density, and activities of glycolytic and oxidative energy metabolic pathway enzymes. Correlations (all p < 0.05) were observed between maximal oxygen consumption (L.min-1) and body mass (r = 0.53), body mass index (r = 0.39), waist circumference (r = 0.34), fat free mass (FFM; r = 0.68), fat mass (r = 0.33), the enzyme activity of cytochrome c oxidase (COX; r = 0.39), muscle type IIA (r = 0.40) and IIX (r = 0.50) fiber area, and the number of capillaries per type IIA (r = 0.39) and IIX (r = 0.37) fiber. When adjusted for FFM in partial correlations, all correlations were lost, with the exception of COX (r = 0.48). Stepwise multiple regression revealed that maximal oxygen consumption was independently predicted by FFM, COX activity, mean capillary number per fiber, waist circumference, and, to a lesser extent, muscle capillary supply. In the absence of regular physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness is strongly predicted by the potential for aerobic metabolism of skeletal muscle and negatively correlated with abdominal fat deposition.

Dietary rice bran component γ-oryzanol inhibits tumor growth in tumor-bearing mice.

PubMed

Kim, Sung Phil; Kang, Mi Young; Nam, Seok Hyun; Friedman, Mendel

2012-06-01

We investigated the effects of rice bran and components on tumor growth in mice. Mice fed standard diets supplemented with rice bran, γ-oryzanol, Ricetrienol®, ferulic acid, or phytic acid for 2 weeks were inoculated with CT-26 colon cancer cells and fed the same diet for two additional weeks. Tumor mass was significantly lower in the γ-oryzanol and less so in the phytic acid group. Tumor inhibition was associated with the following biomarkers: increases in cytolytic activity of splenic natural killer (NK) cells; partial restoration of nitric oxide production and phagocytosis in peritoneal macrophages increases in released the pro-inflammatory cytokines tumor necrosis factor-α, IL-1β, and IL-6 from macrophages; and reductions in the number of blood vessels inside the tumor. Pro-angiogenic biomarkers vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2), and 5-lipoxygenase-5 (5-LOX) were also significantly reduced in mRNA and protein expression by tumor genes. ELISA of tumor cells confirmed reduced expression of COX-2 and 5-LOX up to 30%. Reduced COX-2 and 5-LOX expression downregulated VEGF and inhibited neoangiogenesis inside the tumors. Induction of NK activity, activation of macrophages, and inhibition of angiogenesis seem to contribute to the inhibitory mechanism of tumor regression by γ-oryzanol. © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Multiple, but not traditional risk factors predict mortality in older people: the Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project.

PubMed

Hirani, Vasant; Naganathan, Vasi; Blyth, Fiona; Le Couteur, David G; Gnjidic, Danijela; Stanaway, Fiona F; Seibel, Markus J; Waite, Louise M; Handelsman, David J; Cumming, Robert G

2014-01-01

This study aims to identify the common risk factors for mortality in community-dwelling older men. A prospective population-based study was conducted with a median of 6.7 years of follow-up. Participants included 1705 men aged ≥70 years at baseline (2005-2007) living in the community in Sydney, Australia. Demographic information, lifestyle factors, health status, self-reported history of diseases, physical performance measures, blood pressure, height and weight, disability (activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADLs, instrumental ADLs (IADLs)), cognitive status, depressive symptoms and blood analyte measures were considered. Cox regression analyses were conducted to model predictors delete time until of mortality. During follow-up, 461 men (27 %) died. Using Cox proportional hazards model, significant predictors of delete time to time to mortality included in the final model (p < 0.05) were older age, body mass index < 20 kg m(2), high white cell count, anaemia, low albumin, current smoking, history of cancer, history of myocardial infarction, history of congestive heart failure, depressive symptoms and ADL and IADL disability and impaired chair stands. We found that overweight and obesity and/or being a lifelong non-drinker of alcohol were protective against mortality. Compared to men with less than or equal to one risk factor, the hazard ratio in men with three risk factors was 2.5; with four risk factors, it was 4.0; with five risk factors, it was 4.9; and for six or more risk factors, it was 11.4, respectively. We have identified common risk factors that predict mortality that may be useful in making clinical decisions among older people living in the community. Our findings suggest that, in primary care, screening and management of multiple risk factors are important to consider for extending survival, rather than simply considering individual risk factors in isolation. Some of the "traditional" risk factors for mortality in a younger population, including high blood pressure, hypercholesterolaemia, overweight and obesity and diabetes, were not independent predictors of mortality in this population of older men.

Additional follow-up telephone counselling and initial smoking relapse: a longitudinal, controlled study.

PubMed

Wu, Lei; He, Yao; Jiang, Bin; Zuo, Fang; Liu, Qinghui; Zhang, Li; Zhou, Changxi

2016-04-20

Smoking cessation services can help smokers to quit; however, many smoking relapse cases occur over time. Initial relapse prevention should play an important role in achieving the goal of long-term smoking cessation. Several studies have focused on the effect of extended telephone support in relapse prevention, but the conclusions remain conflicting. From October 2008 to August 2013, a longitudinal, controlled study was performed in a large general hospital of Beijing. The smokers who sought treatment at our smoking cessation clinic were non-randomised and divided into 2 groups: face-to-face individual counselling group (FC group), and face-to-face individual counselling plus telephone follow-up counselling group (FCF group). No pharmacotherapy was offered. The timing of initial smoking relapse was compared between FC and FCF groups. Predictors of initial relapse were investigated during the first 180 days, using the Cox proportional hazards model. Of 547 eligible male smokers who volunteered to participate, 457 participants (117 in FC group and 340 in FCF group) achieved at least 24 h abstinence. The majority of the lapse episodes occurred during the first 2 weeks after the quit date. Smokers who did not receive the follow-up telephone counselling (FC group) tended to relapse to smoking earlier than those smokers who received the additional follow-up telephone counselling (FCF group), and the log-rank test was statistically significant (p=0.003). A Cox regression model showed that, in the FCF group, being married, and having a lower Fagerström test score, normal body mass index and doctor-diagnosed tobacco-related chronic diseases, were significantly independent protective predictors of smoking relapse. Within the limitations of this study, it can be concluded that additional follow-up telephone counselling might be an effective strategy in preventing relapse. Further research is still needed to confirm our findings. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Predictive factors for the regression of canine transmissible venereal tumor during vincristine therapy.

PubMed

Scarpelli, Karime C; Valladão, Maria L; Metze, Konradin

2010-03-01

Canine transmissible venereal tumor (CTVT) is a neoplasm transmitted by transplantation. Monochemotherapy with vincristine is considered to be effective, but treatment time until complete clinical remission may vary. The aim of this study was to determine which clinical data at diagnosis could predict the responsiveness of CTVT to vincristine chemotherapy. One hundred dogs with CTVT entered this prospective study. The animals were treated with vincristine sulfate (0.025 mg/kg) at weekly intervals until the tumor had macroscopically disappeared. The time to complete remission was recorded. A multivariate Cox regression model indicated that larger tumor mass, increased age and therapy during hot and rainy months were independent significant unfavorable predictive factors retarding remission, whereas sex, weight, status as owned dog or breed were of no predictive relevance. Further studies are necessary to investigate whether these results are due to changes in immunological response mechanisms in animals with a diminished immune surveillance, resulting in delays in tumor regression. 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A baseline-free procedure for transformation models under interval censorship.

PubMed

Gu, Ming Gao; Sun, Liuquan; Zuo, Guoxin

2005-12-01

An important property of Cox regression model is that the estimation of regression parameters using the partial likelihood procedure does not depend on its baseline survival function. We call such a procedure baseline-free. Using marginal likelihood, we show that an baseline-free procedure can be derived for a class of general transformation models under interval censoring framework. The baseline-free procedure results a simplified and stable computation algorithm for some complicated and important semiparametric models, such as frailty models and heteroscedastic hazard/rank regression models, where the estimation procedures so far available involve estimation of the infinite dimensional baseline function. A detailed computational algorithm using Markov Chain Monte Carlo stochastic approximation is presented. The proposed procedure is demonstrated through extensive simulation studies, showing the validity of asymptotic consistency and normality. We also illustrate the procedure with a real data set from a study of breast cancer. A heuristic argument showing that the score function is a mean zero martingale is provided.

Regression of endometrial explants in a rat model of endometriosis treated with melatonin.

PubMed

Güney, Mehmet; Oral, Baha; Karahan, Nermin; Mungan, Tamer

2008-04-01

To determine the antioxidant, antiinflammatory, and immunomodulatory effects of melatonin on endometrial explants, the distribution of cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2), the activity of antioxidant enzymes superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT), and levels of malondialdehyde (MDA) in the rat endometriosis model. Prospective, placebo-controlled experimental study. Experimental surgery laboratory in a university department. Twenty-five rats with experimentally induced endometriosis. Endometriosis was surgically induced in 25 rats by transplanting an autologous fragment of endometrial tissue onto the inner surface of the abdominal wall. Four weeks later, three rats were killed and the remaining 22 rats given second-look laparotomies to identify and measure ectopic uterine tissue in three dimensions. After the second laparotomy, 4 weeks of vehicle and melatonin treatment were administered, then all of the rats were given a third laparotomy and killed. The volume and weight of the implants were measured. The remaining rats were randomly divided into two groups. In control group (group 1; n = 11) no medication was given. To the rats in melatonin-treated group (group 2; n = 11), 10 mg/kg a day of melatonin was administered intraperitoneally. Four weeks later, after the second laparotomy, the endometrial explants were reevaluated morphologically, and COX-2 expression was evaluated immunohistochemically and histologically. In addition, endometrial explants were analyzed for the antioxidant enzymes SOD, CAT, and MDA, a marker of lipid peroxidation. A scoring system was used to evaluate expression of COX-2 and preservation of epithelia. The pretreatment and posttreatment volumes within the control group were 135.9 +/- 31.5 and 129.4 +/- 28.7, respectively. The mean explant volume was 141.4 +/- 34.4 within the melatonin group before the treatment and 42.9 +/- 14.0 after 4 weeks of treatment. There was a statistically significant difference in spherical volumes (129.4 +/- 28.7 versus 42.9 +/- 14.0 mm(3)) of explant weights (155.8 +/- 27.1 versus 49.6 +/- 19.5 mg) and COX-2 positivity (91% versus 18.1%) between groups after the third laparotomy. In the melatonin-treated group, the endometrial explant levels of MDA statistically significantly decreased and activities of SOD and CAT significantly increased when compared with the control group. The epithelia showed statistically significantly better preservation in the control group when compared with the melatonin-treated group (2.54 +/- 0.52 versus 0.63 +/- 0.50). Melatonin causes regression and atrophy of the endometriotic lesions in rats.

Early Reticulocytosis and Anemia Are Associated with Abnormal and Conditional Transcranial Doppler Velocities in Children with Sickle Cell Anemia.

PubMed

Meier, Emily Riehm; Fasano, Ross M; Estrada, Monica; He, Jianping; Luban, Naomi L C; McCarter, Robert

2016-02-01

To improve prediction of sickle cell anemia severity at an early age, we evaluated whether absolute reticulocyte count (ARC) or hemoglobin (Hb) levels during early infancy (2-6 months of age) in patients with sickle cell anemia predict the risk of later developing an abnormal (abTCD) or conditional (cdTCD) Transcranial Doppler (TCD). We used chart review to identify 121 consecutive patients who underwent TCD screening and had steady state ARC and Hb levels recorded between 2 and 6 months of age. Cox regression analysis was used to determine the relationship between ARC, Hb levels, and risk of developing cdTCD/abTCD over time. Mean ARC in early infancy was highest and mean Hb lowest in those children with abTCDs and cdTCDs. Cox regression analysis revealed that those subjects with an ARC ≥200 K/μL in early infancy had nearly 3 times the risk of having an abTCD/cdTCD than the group with an ARC <200 K/μL, and patients with a Hb <8.5 g/dL had 2.7 times the risk of having an abTCD/cdTCD. These data suggest that both elevated ARC and low baseline Hb during early infancy are associated with an increased risk of developing a cdTCD or abTCD later in childhood. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association of dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors with risk of metastases in patients with type 2 diabetes and breast, prostate or digestive system cancer.

PubMed

Rathmann, Wolfgang; Kostev, Karel

2017-04-01

Experimental and animal studies have supported the hypothesis that dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) may accelerate tumor metastasis. The aim was to analyze the relationships between DPP-4i therapy with risk of metastases in type 2 diabetes patients with breast, prostate and digestive organ cancers. Type 2 diabetes patients with first diagnoses of breast, prostate or digestive organ cancer were selected in general and internal medicine practices (Disease Analyzer Germany: 01/2008-12/2014). Propensity score matching between DPP-4i users and non-users was carried out for age, sex, diabetes duration, and metformin use. Time-dependent Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for metastases further adjusting for HbA1c, body mass index, comorbidity and co-therapy with glucose-lowering drugs (3-4years follow-up). 668 patients with newly diagnosed breast cancer, 906 with prostate cancer and 908 with digestive organ cancer were analyzed. In Cox regression, use of DPP-4i was not associated with an increased risk of metastases in patients with breast (adjusted HR, 95%CI: 1.00, 0.49-2.02), prostate (0.98, 0.54-1.77) or digestive organ cancers (0.97, 0.57-1.66). This first observational study in patients with type 2 diabetes and breast, prostate or digestive organ cancer found no increased risk of metastases in DPP-4i users. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Charlson comorbidity index as a predictor of periodontal disease in elderly participants

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Purpose This study investigated the validity of the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) as a predictor of periodontal disease (PD) over a 12-year period. Methods Nationwide representative samples of 149,785 adults aged ≥60 years with PD (International Classification of Disease, 10th revision [ICD-10], K052–K056) were derived from the National Health Insurance Service-Elderly Cohort during 2002–2013. The degree of comorbidity was measured using the CCI (grade 0–6), including 17 diseases weighted on the basis of their association with mortality, and data were analyzed using multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression in order to investigate the associations of comorbid diseases (CDs) with PD. Results The multivariate Cox regression analysis with adjustment for sociodemographic factors (sex, age, household income, insurance status, residence area, and health status) and CDs (acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, cerebral vascular accident, dementia, pulmonary disease, connective tissue disorders, peptic ulcer, liver disease, diabetes, diabetes complications, paraplegia, renal disease, cancer, metastatic cancer, severe liver disease, and human immunodeficiency virus [HIV]) showed that the CCI in elderly comorbid participants was significantly and positively correlated with the presence of PD (grade 1: hazard ratio [HR], 1.11; P<0.001; grade ≥2: HR, 1.12, P<0.001). Conclusions We demonstrated that a higher CCI was a significant predictor of greater risk for PD in the South Korean elderly population. PMID:29770238

Intra-individual reaction time variability and all-cause mortality over 17 years: a community-based cohort study.

PubMed

Batterham, Philip J; Bunce, David; Mackinnon, Andrew J; Christensen, Helen

2014-01-01

very few studies have examined the association between intra-individual reaction time variability and subsequent mortality. Furthermore, the ability of simple measures of variability to predict mortality has not been compared with more complex measures. a prospective cohort study of 896 community-based Australian adults aged 70+ were interviewed up to four times from 1990 to 2002, with vital status assessed until June 2007. From this cohort, 770-790 participants were included in Cox proportional hazards regression models of survival. Vital status and time in study were used to conduct survival analyses. The mean reaction time and three measures of intra-individual reaction time variability were calculated separately across 20 trials of simple and choice reaction time tasks. Models were adjusted for a range of demographic, physical health and mental health measures. greater intra-individual simple reaction time variability, as assessed by the raw standard deviation (raw SD), coefficient of variation (CV) or the intra-individual standard deviation (ISD), was strongly associated with an increased hazard of all-cause mortality in adjusted Cox regression models. The mean reaction time had no significant association with mortality. intra-individual variability in simple reaction time appears to have a robust association with mortality over 17 years. Health professionals such as neuropsychologists may benefit in their detection of neuropathology by supplementing neuropsychiatric testing with the straightforward process of testing simple reaction time and calculating raw SD or CV.

Factors associated with HIV/AIDS treatment dropouts in a special care unit in the City of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.

PubMed

Schilkowsky, Louise Bastos; Portela, Margareth Crisóstomo; Sá, Marilene de Castilho

2011-06-01

This study aimed to identify factors associated with the health care of patients with HIV/AIDS who drop out. The study was developed in a specialized health care unit of a University hospital in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, considering a stratified sample of adult patients including all dropout cases (155) and 44.0% of 790 cases under regular follow-up. Bivariate analyses were used to identify associations between health care dropout and demographic, socioeconomic and clinical variables. Logistic and Cox regression models were used to identify the independent effects of the explanatory variables on risk for dropout, in the latter by incorporating information on the outcome over time. Patients were, on average, 35 years old, predominantly males (66.4%) and of a low socioeconomic level (45.0%). In both models, health care dropout was consistently associated with being unemployed or having an unstable job, using illicit drugs and having psychiatric background--positive association; and with age, having AIDS, and having used multiple antiretroviral regimens--negative association. In the logistic regression, dropping out was also positively associated with time between diagnosis and the first outpatient visit, while in the Cox model, the hazard for dropping out was positively associated with being single, and negatively associated with a higher educational level. The results of this work allow for the identification of HIV/AIDS patients more likely to drop out from health care.

Clinical performance of long-span zirconia frameworks for fixed dental prostheses: 5-year results.

PubMed

Schmitter, M; Mussotter, K; Rammelsberg, P; Gabbert, O; Ohlmann, B

2012-07-01

The purpose of this prospective cohort study was to assess the performance of tooth-supported, long-span, zirconia fixed dental prostheses (FDPs). Thirty FDPs with span lengths from 36 to 46 mm (mean 40·33 mm), with 4-7 units and with connector dimensions ∼9 mm(2) were inserted (19 in the posterior region, 11 including anterior teeth) using glass-ionomer cement. The performance of the FDPs was assessed (aesthetic evaluation, failures, hypersensitivity/tooth vitality, secondary caries, pocket depth, decementation, and chipping) at baseline and after 5 years. Cox regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors. There were 16 failures after 5 years. Framework fracture occurred for two FDPs, four FDPs had to be re-cemented, one abutment tooth had to be treated endodontically, one abutment tooth fractured and cohesive failure of the veneer occurred for eight. Four FDPs had to be replaced, so survival was 82%. The aesthetics were rated as excellent by the patients at baseline and good at the 5-year recall. Cox regression analysis showed that both length [P = 0·05, exp(B) = 1·22] and location [P = 0·019, exp(B) = 4·09] of the FDP were risk factors for failure. Compared with the previously published 2-year results, the incidence of complications increased dramatically. Additionally, it was shown that long-span FDPs in the molar region are at greater risk of failure than FDPs in the anterior region. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Survival of two post systems--five-year results of a randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Schmitter, Marc; Hamadi, Khaled; Rammelsberg, Peter

2011-01-01

To assess the survival rate of two different post systems after 5 years of service with a prospective randomized controlled trial. One hundred patients in need of a post were studied. Half of the patients received long glass fiber-reinforced posts, while the other half received long metal screw posts. The posts were assigned randomly. After at least 5 years (mean, 61.37 months), follow-ups were established. When a complication occurred prior to this recall, the type and time of the complication was documented. Statistical analysis was performed using the log-rank test and Kaplan-Meier analysis. Additionally, a Cox regression was performed to analyze risk factors. The survival rate of fiber-reinforced posts was 71.8%. In the metal screw post group, the survival rate was significantly lower, 50.0% (log-rank test, P = .026). Metal posts resulted more often in more unfavorable complications (eg, root fractures); consequently, more teeth (n = 17) had to be extracted. The Cox regression identified the following risk factors: position of the tooth (anterior vs posterior teeth), degree of coronal tooth destruction, and the post system (fiber-reinforced post vs metal screw post). Fiber-reinforced restorations loosened in several patients; in some of these cases (n = 6), patients did not notice this, leading to the extraction of teeth. Long metal screw posts should be used with great care in endodontically treated teeth. Besides the selection of the post system, other factors influence the survival of the restoration.

Association of educational attainment with chronic disease and mortality: the Kidney Early Evaluation Program (KEEP).

PubMed

Choi, Andy I; Weekley, Cristin C; Chen, Shu-Cheng; Li, Suying; Tamura, Manjula Kurella; Norris, Keith C; Shlipak, Michael G

2011-08-01

Recent reports have suggested a close relationship between education and health, including mortality, in the United States. Observational cohort. We studied 61,457 participants enrolled in a national health screening initiative, the National Kidney Foundation's Kidney Early Evaluation Program (KEEP). Self-reported educational attainment. Chronic diseases (hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, reduced kidney function, and albuminuria) and mortality. We evaluated cross-sectional associations between self-reported educational attainment with the chronic diseases listed using logistic regression models adjusted for demographics, access to care, behaviors, and comorbid conditions. The association of educational attainment with survival was determined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Higher educational attainment was associated with a lower prevalence of each of the chronic conditions listed. In multivariable models, compared with persons not completing high school, college graduates had a lower risk of each chronic condition, ranging from 11% lower odds of decreased kidney function to 37% lower odds of cardiovascular disease. During a mean follow-up of 3.9 (median, 3.7) years, 2,384 (4%) deaths occurred. In the fully adjusted Cox model, those who had completed college had 24% lower mortality compared with participants who had completed at least some high school. Lack of income data does not allow us to disentangle the independent effects of education from income. In this diverse contemporary cohort, higher educational attainment was associated independently with a lower prevalence of chronic diseases and short-term mortality in all age and race/ethnicity groups. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Transplant center volume and outcomes in lung transplantation for cystic fibrosis.

PubMed

Hayes, Don; Sweet, Stuart C; Benden, Christian; Kopp, Benjamin T; Goldfarb, Samuel B; Visner, Gary A; Mallory, George B; Tobias, Joseph D; Tumin, Dmitry

2017-04-01

Transplant volume represents lung transplant (LTx) expertise and predicts outcomes, so we sought to determine outcomes related to center volumes in cystic fibrosis (CF). United Network for Organ Sharing data were queried for patients with CF in the United States (US) receiving bilateral LTx from 2005 to 2015. Multivariable Cox regression was used to model survival to 1 year and long-term (>1 year) survival, conditional on surviving at least 1 year. A total of 2025 patients and 67 centers were included in the analysis. The median annual LTx volumes were three in CF [interquartile range (IQR): 2, 6] and 17 in non-CF (IQR: 8, 33). Multivariable Cox regression in cases with complete data and surviving at least 1 year (n = 1510) demonstrated that greater annual CF LTx volume (HR per 10 LTx = 0.66; 95% CI: 0.49, 0.89; P = 0.006) but not greater non-CF LTx volume (HR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.05; P = 0.844) was associated with improved long-term survival in LTx recipients with CF. A Wald interaction test confirmed that CF LTx volume was more strongly associated with long-term outcomes than non-CF LTx volume (P = 0.012). In a US cohort, center volume was not associated with 1-year survival. CF-specific expertise predicted improved long-term outcomes of LTx for CF, whereas general LTx expertise was unassociated with CF patients' survival. © 2016 Steunstichting ESOT.

BCL2 genotypes and prostate cancer survival.

PubMed

Renner, Wilfried; Langsenlehner, Uwe; Krenn-Pilko, Sabine; Eder, Petra; Langsenlehner, Tanja

2017-06-01

The antiapoptotic B‑cell lymphoma 2 (BCL2) gene is a key player in cancer development and progression. A functional single-nucleotide polymorphism (c.-938C>A, rs2279115) in the inhibitory P2 BCL2 gene promoter has been associated with clinical outcomes in various types of cancer. Aim of the present study was to analyze the role of BCL2-938C>A genotypes in prostate cancer mortality. The association between BCL2-938C>A (rs2279115) genotypes and prostate cancer outcome was studied within the prospective PROCAGENE study comprising 702 prostate cancer patients. During a median follow-up time of 92 months, 120 (17.1%) patients died. A univariate Cox regression model showed a significant association of the CC genotype with reduced cancer-specific survival (CSS; hazard ratio, HR, 2.13, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.10-4.12; p = 0.024) and overall survival (OS; HR 2.34, 95% CI 1.58-3.47; p < 0.001). In a multivariate Cox regression model including age at diagnosis, risk group, and androgen deprivation therapy, the CC genotype remained a significant predictor of poor CSS (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.05-3.99; p = 0.034) and OS (HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.51-3.36; p < 0.001). This study provides evidence that the homozygous BCL2-938 CC genotype is associated with OS and C in prostate cancer patients.

Multicenter retrospective analysis of cardiovascular risk factors affecting long-term outcome of de novo cardiac transplant recipients.

PubMed

Kobashigawa, Jon A; Starling, Randall C; Mehra, Mandeep R; Kormos, Robert L; Bhat, Geetha; Barr, Mark L; Sigouin, Chris S; Kolesar, June; Fitzsimmons, William

2006-09-01

Previous risk factor studies in cardiac transplant patients have analyzed pre-transplant risk factors as they relate to outcomes. This study is the first in-depth multicenter assessment of ongoing post-transplant risk factors in heart transplant patients and their impact on 5-year outcomes. We reviewed 280 heart transplant patients who survived > 1 year for the impact of post-transplant risk factors (hyperlipidemia, hypertension, diabetes, body mass index [BMI] and renal dysfunction: 8 to 18 possible measurements over 5 years) on outcomes, including death, cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) and non-fatal major adverse cardiac events (NF-MACE). Upon multivariate Cox regression analysis, significant findings were high total-cholesterol for NF-MACE (relative risk [RR] = 4.34, confidence interval [CI] 1.35 to 13.98, p = 0.01), presence of diabetes for NF-MACE (RR = 3.96, CI 1.24 to 12.65, p = 0.02) and high serum creatinine for graft death (RR = 1.59, CI 1.35 to 1.87, p < 0.001). No covariates were found to be significant for CAV. Other significant risk factors by univariate Cox regression models with time-dependent covariates included BMI > or = 33 for graft death. Post-transplant risk factors of hypercholesterolemia and diabetes are associated with NF-MACE, whereas high serum creatinine and BMI > or = 33 are associated with graft death. Risk factor modification, including direct therapy to minimize risk factors, should be considered.

A possible relationship between renal impairment and complications development in type 2 diabetes mellitus: a prospective, observational study in Italy.

PubMed

Fabbian, Fabio; De Giorgi, Alfredo; Monesi, Marcello; Pala, Marco; Tiseo, Ruana; Forcellini, Silvia; Storari, Alda; Graziani, Roberto; Volpi, Riccardo; Mikhailidis, Dimitri P; Manfredini, Roberto

2015-08-01

We investigated the relationship between complications development and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), in a cohort of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) outpatients. This observational study considered 1284 T2DM outpatients, who had been followed-up for 4.5 ± 1.6 years. eGFR was estimated using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation. The independent relationship between development of complications and clinical data was evaluated, and hazard ratio (HR) by Cox regression analysis calculated. Mean age of the population was 66.8 ± 10.4 years; mean serum creatinine and eGFR were 1.05 ± 0.36 mg/dl and 71.6 ± 21.6 ml/min/1.73 m(2), respectively. Complications including death (14.2% of the whole population) were recorded in 504 subjects (39.3%). Patients with complications were older and more frequently male with history of hypertension, coronary heart disease, congestive heart disease, retinopathy, nephropathy and had higher levels of glycated hemoglobin. At Cox regression analysis, eGFR was the major risk factor for development of complications, and the HR increased according with lower eGFR (HR 1.53 and 1.86, for eGFR<45 and<30 ml/min/1.73 m(2), respectively). In our cohort of T2DM outpatients, a reduced eGFR was associated with an increased risk of complications development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

One year Survival Rate of Ketac Molar versus Vitro Molar for Occlusoproximal ART Restorations: a RCT.

PubMed

Anna Luisa de Brito, Pacheco; Isabel Cristina, Olegário; Clarissa Calil, Bonifácio; Ana Flávia Bissoto, Calvo; José Carlos Pettorossi, Imparato; Daniela Prócida, Raggio

2017-11-06

Good survival rates for single-surface Atraumatic Restorative Treatment (ART) restorations have been reported, while multi-surface ART restorations have not shown similar results. The aim of this study was to evaluate the survival rate of occluso-proximal ART restorations using two different filling materials: Ketac Molar EasyMix (3M ESPE) and Vitro Molar (DFL). A total of 117 primary molars with occluso-proximal caries lesions were selected in 4 to 8 years old children in Barueri city, Brazil. Only one tooth was selected per child. The subjetcs were randomly allocated in two groups according to the filling material. All treatments were performed following the ART premises and all restorations were evaluated after 2, 6 and 12 months. Restoration survival was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Log-rank test, while Cox regression analysis was used for testing association with clinical factors (α = 5%). There was no difference in survival rate between the materials tested, (HR = 1.60, CI = 0.98-2.62, p = 0.058). The overall survival rate of restorations was 42.74% and the survival rate per group was Ketac Molar = 50,8% and Vitro Molar G2 = 34.5%). Cox regression test showed no association between the analyzed clinical variables and the success of the restorations. After 12 months evaluation, no difference in the survival rate of ART occluso-proximal restorations was found between tested materials.

Can risk assessment predict suicide in secondary mental healthcare? Findings from the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust Biomedical Research Centre (SLaM BRC) Case Register.

PubMed

Lopez-Morinigo, Javier-David; Fernandes, Andrea C; Shetty, Hitesh; Ayesa-Arriola, Rosa; Bari, Ashraful; Stewart, Robert; Dutta, Rina

2018-06-02

The predictive value of suicide risk assessment in secondary mental healthcare remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the extent to which clinical risk assessment ratings can predict suicide among people receiving secondary mental healthcare. Retrospective inception cohort study (n = 13,758) from the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust (SLaM) (London, UK) linked with national mortality data (n = 81 suicides). Cox regression models assessed survival from the last suicide risk assessment and ROC curves evaluated the performance of risk assessment total scores. Hopelessness (RR = 2.24, 95% CI 1.05-4.80, p = 0.037) and having a significant loss (RR = 1.91, 95% CI 1.03-3.55, p = 0.041) were significantly associated with suicide in the multivariable Cox regression models. However, screening statistics for the best cut-off point (4-5) of the risk assessment total score were: sensitivity 0.65 (95% CI 0.54-0.76), specificity 0.62 (95% CI 0.62-0.63), positive predictive value 0.01 (95% CI 0.01-0.01) and negative predictive value 0.99 (95% CI 0.99-1.00). Although suicide was linked with hopelessness and having a significant loss, risk assessment performed poorly to predict such an uncommon outcome in a large case register of patients receiving secondary mental healthcare.

Association between participation in outdoor play and sport at 10 years old with physical activity in adulthood.

PubMed

Smith, Lee; Gardner, Benjamin; Aggio, Daniel; Hamer, Mark

2015-05-01

This study aimed to investigate whether active outdoor play and/or sports at age 10 is associated with sport/physical activity at 32 year follow-up using a birth cohort study. Data were from the 1970 British Cohort Study, a longitudinal observational study. The present paper included data from the age 10 years and age 42 years surveys. At age 10 the participant's mother provided information regarding how often their child played sports, and played outside on streets, parks or playgrounds. At age 42 participants reported frequency of participation in physical activities and sports. Associations between participation in sport/active outdoor play at age 10 years and adult sport/physical activity were investigated using adjusted (gender, fathers socio-occupational class, child's BMI, father's BMI, self-rated health at age 42, assessment of own weight at age 42, participant's education) Cox regression. Final adjusted Cox regression models showed that participants (n=6458) who often participated in sports at age 10 were significantly more likely to participate in sport/physical activity at age 42 (RR 1.10; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.19). Active outdoor play at age 10 was not associated with participation in sport/physical activity at age 42 (RR 0.99; 95% CI 0.91 to 1.07). Childhood activity interventions might best achieve lasting change by promoting engagement in sport rather than active outdoor play. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Clinical Impact of Emphysema Evaluated by High-Resolution Computed Tomography on Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Diagnosed by Surgical Lung Biopsy.

PubMed

Kohashi, Yasuo; Arai, Toru; Sugimoto, Chikatoshi; Tachibana, Kazunobu; Akira, Masanori; Kitaichi, Masanori; Hayashi, Seiji; Inoue, Yoshikazu

2016-01-01

The prognosis of combined cases of pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema is unresolved partially because radiological differentiation between usual interstitial pneumonia and nonspecific interstitial pneumonia is difficult in coexisting emphysema cases. The purpose of this study was to clarify the clinical impact of emphysema on the survival of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). One hundred and seven patients with interstitial lung diseases were diagnosed by surgical lung biopsies between 2006 and 2012, and 47 patients were diagnosed with IPF through multidisciplinary discussion. Emphysema on high-resolution computed tomography scans was evaluated semiquantitatively by visual scoring. Eight out of the 47 IPF patients showed a higher emphysema score (>3) and were diagnosed to have IPF-emphysema. The median survival time of patients with IPF-emphysema (1,734 days) from the initial diagnosis was significantly shorter than that of patients with IPF alone (2,229 days) by Kaplan-Meier analysis (p = 0.007, log-rank test). Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses revealed that a higher total emphysema score (>3.0) was a significantly poor prognostic factor in addition to Krebs von den Lungen-6, surfactant protein-D, arterial oxygen tension, percent forced vital capacity, and percent diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide (%DLCO). Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses with the stepwise method showed that higher total emphysema score (>3) and %DLCO were significantly poor prognostic factors. The prognosis of IPF-emphysema was significantly worse than that of IPF alone. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Pressure ulcer incidence and Braden subscales: Retrospective cohort analysis in general wards of a Portuguese hospital.

PubMed

Sardo, Pedro Miguel Garcez; Guedes, Jenifer Adriana Domingues; Alvarelhão, José Joaquim Marques; Machado, Paulo Alexandre Puga; Melo, Elsa Maria Oliveira Pinheiro

2018-05-01

To study the influence of Braden subscales scores (at the first pressure ulcer risk assessment) on pressure ulcer incidence using a univariate and a multivariate time to event analysis. Retrospective cohort analysis of electronic health record database from adult patients admitted without pressure ulcer(s) to medical and surgical wards of a Portuguese hospital during 2012. The hazard ratio of developing a pressure ulcer during the length of inpatient stay was calculated by univariate Cox regression for each variable of interest and by multivariate Cox regression for the Braden subscales that were statistically significant. This study included a sample of 6552 participants. During the length of stay, 153 participants developed (at least) one pressure ulcer, giving a pressure ulcer incidence of 2.3%. The univariate time to event analysis showed that all Braden subscales, except "nutrition", were associated with the development of pressure ulcer. By multivariate analysis the scores for "mobility" and "activity" were independently predictive of the development of pressure ulcer(s) for all participants. (Im)"mobility" (the lack of ability to change and control body position) and (in)"activity" (the limited degree of physical activity) were the major risk factors assessed by Braden Scale for pressure ulcer development during the length of inpatient stay. Thus, the greatest efforts in managing pressure ulcer risk should be on "mobility" and "activity", independently of the total Braden Scale score. Copyright © 2018 Tissue Viability Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of enamel preservation on failure rates of porcelain laminate veneers.

PubMed

Gurel, Galip; Sesma, Newton; Calamita, Marcelo A; Coachman, Christian; Morimoto, Susana

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the failure rates of porcelain laminate veneers (PLVs) and the influence of clinical parameters on these rates in a retrospective survey of up to 12 years. Five hundred eighty laminate veneers were bonded in 66 patients. The following parameters were analyzed: type of preparation (depth and margin), crown lengthening, presence of restoration, diastema, crowding, discoloration, abrasion, and attrition. Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression modeling was used to determine which factors would predict PLV failure. Forty-two veneers (7.2%) failed in 23 patients, and an overall cumulative survival rate of 86% was observed. A statistically significant association was noted between failure and the limits of the prepared tooth surface (margin and depth). The most frequent failure type was fracture (n = 20). The results revealed no significant influence of crown lengthening apically, presence of restoration, diastema, discoloration, abrasion, or attrition on failure rates. Multivariable analysis (Cox regression model) also showed that PLVs bonded to dentin and teeth with preparation margins in dentin were approximately 10 times more likely to fail than PLVs bonded to enamel. Moreover, coronal crown lengthening increased the risk of PLV failure by 2.3 times. A survival rate of 99% was observed for veneers with preparations confined to enamel and 94% for veneers with enamel only at the margins. Laminate veneers have high survival rates when bonded to enamel and provide a safe and predictable treatment option that preserves tooth structure.

Prognostic Factors in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Moura, Mirian Conceicao; Novaes, Maria Rita Carvalho Garbi; Eduardo, Emanoel Junio; Zago, Yuri S S P; Freitas, Ricardo Del Negro Barroso; Casulari, Luiz Augusto

2015-01-01

To determine the prognostic factors associated with survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis at diagnosis. This retrospective population-based study evaluated 218 patients treated with riluzole between 2005 and 2014 and described their clinical and demographic profiles after the analysis of clinical data and records from the mortality information system in the Federal District, Brazil. Cox multivariate regression analysis was conducted for the parameters found. The study sample consisted of 132 men and 86 women with a mean age at disease onset of 57.2±12.3 years; 77.6% of them were Caucasian. The mean periods between disease onset and diagnosis were 22.7 months among men and 23.5 months among women, and the mean survival periods were 45.7±47.0 months among men and 39.3±29.8 months among women. In addition, 80.3% patients presented non-bulbar-onset amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, and 19.7% presented bulbar-onset. Cox regression analysis indicated worse prognosis for body mass index (BMI) <25 kg/m2 (relative risk [RR]: 3.56, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.44-8.86), age >75 years (RR: 12.47, 95% CI: 3.51-44.26), and bulbar-onset (RR: 4.56, 95% CI: 2.06-10.12). Electromyography did not confirm the diagnosis in 55.6% of the suspected cases and in 27.9% of the bulbar-onset cases. The factors associated with lower survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis were age >75 years, BMI <25 kg/m2, and bulbar-onset.

Long-term Survival of Straumann Dental Implants with TPS Surfaces: A Retrospective Study with a Follow-up of 12 to 23 Years.

PubMed

Becker, Stephan T; Beck-Broichsitter, Benedicta E; Rossmann, Christian M; Behrens, Eleonore; Jochens, Arne; Wiltfang, Jörg

2016-06-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term dental implant survival rates of Straumann dental implants in a university hospital environment over 12 to 23 years. A total of 388 Straumann dental implants with titanium-sprayed surfaces (TPS) were inserted in 92 patients between 1988 and 1999 in the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery of the University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein in Kiel, and they were reevaluated with standardized clinical and radiological exams. Kaplan-Meier analyses were performed for individual factors. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to detect the factors influencing long-term implant failure. The long-term implant survival rate was 88.03% after an observation time of 12.2 to 23.5 years. Cox regression revealed statistically significant influences of the International Team for Implantology (ITI) implantation type (p = .00354) and tobacco smoking (p = .01264) on implant failure. A proportion 82.8% of the patients with implant losses had a medical history of periodontitis. Peri-implantitis was diagnosed in 9.7% of the remaining implants in the long-term survey. This study emphasized the long-term rehabilitation capabilities of Straumann dental implants in complex cases. The survival rates after several years constitute important information for patients, as well as for clinicians, in deciding about different concepts of tooth replacement. Patient-related and technical factors - determined before implant placement - could help to predict the risk of implant loss. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Premature Atrial Contractions on the Screening Electrocardiogram and Risk of Ischemic Stroke: The Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke Study.

PubMed

O'Neal, Wesley T; Kamel, Hooman; Kleindorfer, Dawn; Judd, Suzanne E; Howard, George; Howard, Virginia J; Soliman, Elsayed Z

2016-01-01

It is currently unknown if premature atrial contractions (PACs) detected on the routine screening electrocardiogram are associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke. We examined the association between PACs and ischemic stroke in 22,975 (mean age 64 ± 9.2; 56% women; 40% black) participants from the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study. Participants who were free of stroke at baseline were included. PACs were detected from centrally read electrocardiograms at baseline. Cox regression was used to examine the association between PACs and ischemic stroke events through March 31, 2014. PACs were present in 1,687 (7.3%) participants at baseline. In a Cox regression model adjusted for stroke risk factors and potential confounders, PACs were associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke (hazards ratio (HR) 1.34, 95% CI 1.04-1.74). The relationship was limited to non-lacunar infarcts (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.08-1.87), and not lacunar strokes (HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.51-2.03). An interaction by sex was detected, with the association between PACs and ischemic stroke being stronger among women (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.29-2.56) than men (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.69-1.52; p-interaction = 0.0095). PACs detected on the routine electrocardiogram are associated with an increased risk for non-lacunar ischemic strokes, especially in women. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Can We Predict Individual Combined Benefit and Harm of Therapy? Warfarin Therapy for Atrial Fibrillation as a Test Case

PubMed Central

Li, Guowei; Thabane, Lehana; Delate, Thomas; Witt, Daniel M.; Levine, Mitchell A. H.; Cheng, Ji; Holbrook, Anne

2016-01-01

Objectives To construct and validate a prediction model for individual combined benefit and harm outcomes (stroke with no major bleeding, major bleeding with no stroke, neither event, or both) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) with and without warfarin therapy. Methods Using the Kaiser Permanente Colorado databases, we included patients newly diagnosed with AF between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2012 for model construction and validation. The primary outcome was a prediction model of composite of stroke or major bleeding using polytomous logistic regression (PLR) modelling. The secondary outcome was a prediction model of all-cause mortality using the Cox regression modelling. Results We included 9074 patients with 4537 and 4537 warfarin users and non-users, respectively. In the derivation cohort (n = 4632), there were 136 strokes (2.94%), 280 major bleedings (6.04%) and 1194 deaths (25.78%) occurred. In the prediction models, warfarin use was not significantly associated with risk of stroke, but increased the risk of major bleeding and decreased the risk of death. Both the PLR and Cox models were robust, internally and externally validated, and with acceptable model performances. Conclusions In this study, we introduce a new methodology for predicting individual combined benefit and harm outcomes associated with warfarin therapy for patients with AF. Should this approach be validated in other patient populations, it has potential advantages over existing risk stratification approaches as a patient-physician aid for shared decision-making PMID:27513986

Risk stratification personalised model for prediction of life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias in patients with chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Frolov, Alexander Vladimirovich; Vaikhanskaya, Tatjana Gennadjevna; Melnikova, Olga Petrovna; Vorobiev, Anatoly Pavlovich; Guel, Ludmila Michajlovna

2017-01-01

The development of prognostic factors of life-threatening ventricular tachyarrhythmias (VTA) and sudden cardiac death (SCD) continues to maintain its priority and relevance in cardiology. The development of a method of personalised prognosis based on multifactorial analysis of the risk factors associated with life-threatening heart rhythm disturbances is considered a key research and clinical task. To design a prognostic and mathematical model to define personalised risk for life-threatening VTA in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). The study included 240 patients with CHF (mean-age of 50.5 ± 12.1 years; left ventricular ejection fraction 32.8 ± 10.9%; follow-up period 36.8 ± 5.7 months). The participants received basic therapy for heart failure. The elec-trocardiogram (ECG) markers of myocardial electrical instability were assessed including microvolt T-wave alternans, heart rate turbulence, heart rate deceleration, and QT dispersion. Additionally, echocardiography and Holter monitoring (HM) were performed. The cardiovascular events were considered as primary endpoints, including SCD, paroxysmal ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) based on HM-ECG data, and data obtained from implantable device interrogation (CRT-D, ICD) as well as appropriated shocks. During the follow-up period, 66 (27.5%) subjects with CHF showed adverse arrhythmic events, including nine SCD events and 57 VTAs. Data from a stepwise discriminant analysis of cumulative ECG-markers of myocardial electrical instability were used to make a mathematical model of preliminary VTA risk stratification. Uni- and multivariate Cox logistic regression analysis were performed to define an individualised risk stratification model of SCD/VTA. A binary logistic regression model demonstrated a high prognostic significance of discriminant function with a classification sensitivity of 80.8% and specificity of 99.1% (F = 31.2; c2 = 143.2; p < 0.0001). The method of personalised risk stratification using Cox logistic regression allows correct classification of more than 93.9% of CHF cases. A robust body of evidence concerning logistic regression prognostic significance to define VTA risk allows inclusion of this method into the algorithm of subsequent control and selection of the optimal treatment modality to treat patients with CHF.

Overall and Comparative Risk of Herpes Zoster With Pharmacotherapy for Inflammatory Bowel Diseases: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

PubMed

Khan, Nabeel; Patel, Dhruvan; Trivedi, Chinmay; Shah, Yash; Lichtenstein, Gary; Lewis, James; Yang, Yu-Xiao

2018-01-05

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) might be at increased risk for herpes zoster infection. We sought to quantify the risk of herpes zoster in patients with IBD and evaluate the effects of IBD and IBD medications on the risk of herpes zoster. We conducted 2 retrospective studies of populations of Veterans, from January 2000 through June 2016. In study 1, we compared the incidence of herpes zoster among patients with IBD receiving 5-ASA alone vs matched patients without IBD. In study 2, we compared the incidence of herpes zoster among patients with IBD treated with only 5-ASA, with thiopurines, with antagonists of tumor necrosis factor (TNF), with a combination of thiopurines and TNF antagonists, and with vedolizumab. We used multivariable Cox regression to estimate the hazard ratios and 95% CIs for herpes zoster associated with IBD in study 1 and with different treatments in study 2. We also estimated the incidence rate of herpes zoster based on age and IBD medication subgroups. Compared to no IBD, ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD) were each associated with significantly increased risk of herpes zoster infection. In multivariable Cox regression (compared to no IBD), UC, CD, or IBD treated with 5-ASA treatment alone was associated with significantly increased risk of herpes zoster, with adjusted HRs (AHR) of 1.81 for UC (95% CI, 1.56-2.11), 1.56 for CD (95% CI, 1.28-1.91), and 1.72 for treated IBD (95% CI, 1.51-1.96). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, compared to exposure to 5-ASA alone, exposure to thiopurines (AHR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.31-1.65) or a combination of thiopurines and TNF antagonists (AHR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.22-2.23) was associated with increased risk of herpes zoster. However, exposure to TNF antagonists alone (AHR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.96-1.38) was not associated with increased risk of herpes zoster. The incidence rates of herpes zoster in all age groups and all IBD medication subgroups were substantially higher than that in the oldest group of patients without IBD (older than 60 years). In 2 retrospective studies of Veteran populations, we associated IBD and treatment with thiopurines, alone or in combination with TNF antagonists, with increased risk of herpes zoster. With the approval of a new and potentially safer vaccine for herpes zoster, the effects of immunization of patients with IBD should be investigated. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Low levels of Caspase-3 predict favourable response to 5FU-based chemotherapy in advanced colorectal cancer: Caspase-3 inhibition as a therapeutic approach.

PubMed

Flanagan, L; Meyer, M; Fay, J; Curry, S; Bacon, O; Duessmann, H; John, K; Boland, K C; McNamara, D A; Kay, E W; Bantel, H; Schulze-Bergkamen, H; Prehn, J H M

2016-02-04

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common cancers in the Western world. 5-Fluorouracil (5FU)-based chemotherapy (CT) remains the mainstay treatment of CRC in the advanced setting, and activates executioner caspases in target cells. Executioner caspases are key proteins involved in cell disassembly during apoptosis. Activation of executioner caspases also has a role in tissue regeneration and repopulation by stimulating signal transduction and cell proliferation in neighbouring, non-apoptotic cells as reported recently. Tissue microarrays (TMAs) consisting of tumour tissue from 93 stage II and III colon cancer patients were analysed by immunohistochemistry. Surprisingly, patients with low levels of active Caspase-3 had an increased disease-free survival time. This was particularly pronounced in patients who received 5FU-based adjuvant CT. In line with this observation, lower serum levels of active Caspase-3 were found in patients with metastasised CRC who revealed stable disease or tumour regression compared with those with disease progression. The role of Caspase-3 in treatment responses was explored further in primary human tumour explant cultures from fresh patient tumour tissue. Exposure of explant cultures to 5FU-based CT increased the percentage of cells positive for active Caspase-3 and Terminal Deoxynucleotidyl Transferase dUTP Nick end Labelling (TUNEL), but also the expression of regeneration and proliferation markers β-Catenin and Ki-67, as well as cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2). Of note, selective inhibition of Caspase-3 with Ac-DNLD-CHO, a selective, reversible inhibitor of Caspase-3, significantly reduced the expression of proliferation markers as well as COX-2. Inhibition of COX-2 with aspirin or celecoxib did not affect Caspase-3 levels but also reduced Ki-67 and β-Catenin levels, suggesting that Caspase-3 acted via COX-2 to stimulate cell proliferation and tissue regeneration. This indicates that low levels of active Caspase-3 may represent a new predictor of CT responsiveness, and inhibition of Caspase-3, or antagonising downstream effectors of Caspase-3 paracrine signalling, such as COX-2 may improve patient outcomes following CT in advanced CRC.

Comparison of Cox's and relative survival models when estimating the effects of prognostic factors on disease-specific mortality: a simulation study under proportional excess hazards.

PubMed

Le Teuff, Gwenaël; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Bolard, Philippe; Quantin, Catherine

2005-12-30

In many prognostic studies focusing on mortality of persons affected by a particular disease, the cause of death of individual patients is not recorded. In such situations, the conventional survival analytical methods, such as the Cox's proportional hazards regression model, do not allow to discriminate the effects of prognostic factors on disease-specific mortality from their effects on all-causes mortality. In the last decade, the relative survival approach has been proposed to deal with the analyses involving population-based cancer registries, where the problem of missing information on the cause of death is very common. However, some questions regarding the ability of the relative survival methods to accurately discriminate between the two sources of mortality remain open. In order to systematically assess the performance of the relative survival model proposed by Esteve et al., and to quantify its potential advantages over the Cox's model analyses, we carried out a series of simulation experiments, based on the population-based colon cancer registry in the French region of Burgundy. Simulations showed a systematic bias induced by the 'crude' conventional Cox's model analyses when individual causes of death are unknown. In simulations where only about 10 per cent of patients died of causes other than colon cancer, the Cox's model over-estimated the effects of male gender and oldest age category by about 17 and 13 per cent, respectively, with the coverage rate of the 95 per cent CI for the latter estimate as low as 65 per cent. In contrast, the effect of higher cancer stages was under-estimated by 8-28 per cent. In contrast to crude survival, relative survival model largely reduced such problems and handled well even such challenging tasks as separating the opposite effects of the same variable on cancer-related versus other-causes mortality. Specifically, in all the cases discussed above, the relative bias in the estimates from the Esteve et al.'s model was always below 10 per cent, with the coverage rates above 81 per cent. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Determination of Dietary Iron Requirements by Full Expression of Iron-Containing Enzymes in Various Tissues of Broilers.

PubMed

Ma, Xinyan; Liao, Xiudong; Lu, Lin; Li, Sufen; Zhang, Liyang; Luo, Xugang

2016-11-01

The current dietary iron requirement (80 mg/kg) of broilers is mainly based on growth, hemoglobin concentration, or hematocrit data obtained in a few early studies; however, expressions of iron-containing enzymes might be more sensitive novel criteria to evaluate dietary iron requirements. The objective of this study was to determine dietary iron requirements of broilers for the full expression of succinate dehydrogenase (SDH), catalase, and cytochrome c oxidase (COX) in various tissues. A total of 336 1-d-old Arbor Acres male chicks were randomly assigned to 1 of 7 treatments with 6 replicates and fed a basal corn and soybean-meal diet (control, containing 67 mg Fe/kg) and the basal diet supplemented with 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, or 120 mg Fe/kg from FeSO 4 ⋅ 7H 2 O for 21 d. Regression analysis was performed to estimate the optimal dietary iron concentration with the use of broken-line or quadratic models. SDH activity in the liver and heart, COX and catalase activity in the liver, Sdh mRNA levels in the liver, and Cox mRNA levels in the liver and heart of broilers were affected (P < 0.027) by supplemental iron concentration, and increased quadratically (P < 0.004) as dietary iron concentration increased. Dietary iron requirements estimated on the basis of fitted broken-line or quadratic-curve models (P < 0.005) of the above indexes were 97-136 mg/kg. SDH activity in the liver and heart, COX and catalase activity in the liver, Sdh mRNA levels in the liver, and Cox mRNA levels in the liver and heart are, to our knowledge, new and sensitive criteria to evaluate the dietary iron requirements of broilers, and the dietary iron requirements would be 97-136 mg/kg to support the full expression of the above iron-containing enzymes in various tissues of broiler chicks from 1 to 21 d of age, which are higher than the current NRC iron requirement. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

COX16 promotes COX2 metallation and assembly during respiratory complex IV biogenesis

PubMed Central

Aich, Abhishek; Wang, Cong; Chowdhury, Arpita; Ronsör, Christin; Pacheu-Grau, David; Richter-Dennerlein, Ricarda; Dennerlein, Sven

2018-01-01

Cytochrome c oxidase of the mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation system reduces molecular oxygen with redox equivalent-derived electrons. The conserved mitochondrial-encoded COX1- and COX2-subunits are the heme- and copper-center containing core subunits that catalyze water formation. COX1 and COX2 initially follow independent biogenesis pathways creating assembly modules with subunit-specific, chaperone-like assembly factors that assist in redox centers formation. Here, we find that COX16, a protein required for cytochrome c oxidase assembly, interacts specifically with newly synthesized COX2 and its copper center-forming metallochaperones SCO1, SCO2, and COA6. The recruitment of SCO1 to the COX2-module is COX16- dependent and patient-mimicking mutations in SCO1 affect interaction with COX16. These findings implicate COX16 in CuA-site formation. Surprisingly, COX16 is also found in COX1-containing assembly intermediates and COX2 recruitment to COX1. We conclude that COX16 participates in merging the COX1 and COX2 assembly lines. PMID:29381136

Replica analysis of overfitting in regression models for time-to-event data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coolen, A. C. C.; Barrett, J. E.; Paga, P.; Perez-Vicente, C. J.

2017-09-01

Overfitting, which happens when the number of parameters in a model is too large compared to the number of data points available for determining these parameters, is a serious and growing problem in survival analysis. While modern medicine presents us with data of unprecedented dimensionality, these data cannot yet be used effectively for clinical outcome prediction. Standard error measures in maximum likelihood regression, such as p-values and z-scores, are blind to overfitting, and even for Cox’s proportional hazards model (the main tool of medical statisticians), one finds in literature only rules of thumb on the number of samples required to avoid overfitting. In this paper we present a mathematical theory of overfitting in regression models for time-to-event data, which aims to increase our quantitative understanding of the problem and provide practical tools with which to correct regression outcomes for the impact of overfitting. It is based on the replica method, a statistical mechanical technique for the analysis of heterogeneous many-variable systems that has been used successfully for several decades in physics, biology, and computer science, but not yet in medical statistics. We develop the theory initially for arbitrary regression models for time-to-event data, and verify its predictions in detail for the popular Cox model.

Molecular risk assessment of BIG 1-98 participants by expression profiling using RNA from archival tissue

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The purpose of the work reported here is to test reliable molecular profiles using routinely processed formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissues from participants of the clinical trial BIG 1-98 with a median follow-up of 60 months. Methods RNA from fresh frozen (FF) and FFPE tumor samples of 82 patients were used for quality control, and independent FFPE tissues of 342 postmenopausal participants of BIG 1-98 with ER-positive cancer were analyzed by measuring prospectively selected genes and computing scores representing the functions of the estrogen receptor (eight genes, ER_8), the progesterone receptor (five genes, PGR_5), Her2 (two genes, HER2_2), and proliferation (ten genes, PRO_10) by quantitative reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR) on TaqMan Low Density Arrays. Molecular scores were computed for each category and ER_8, PGR_5, HER2_2, and PRO_10 scores were combined into a RISK_25 score. Results Pearson correlation coefficients between FF- and FFPE-derived scores were at least 0.94 and high concordance was observed between molecular scores and immunohistochemical data. The HER2_2, PGR_5, PRO_10 and RISK_25 scores were significant predictors of disease free-survival (DFS) in univariate Cox proportional hazard regression. PRO_10 and RISK_25 scores predicted DFS in patients with histological grade II breast cancer and in lymph node positive disease. The PRO_10 and PGR_5 scores were independent predictors of DFS in multivariate Cox regression models incorporating clinical risk indicators; PRO_10 outperformed Ki-67 labeling index in multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses. Conclusions Scores representing the endocrine responsiveness and proliferation status of breast cancers were developed from gene expression analyses based on RNA derived from FFPE tissues. The validation of the molecular scores with tumor samples of participants of the BIG 1-98 trial demonstrates that such scores can serve as independent prognostic factors to estimate disease free survival (DFS) in postmenopausal patients with estrogen receptor positive breast cancer. Trial Registration Current Controlled Trials: NCT00004205 PMID:20144231

Effect of late HIV diagnosis on HIV-related mortality among adults in general hospitals of Central Zone Tigray, northern Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Belay, Hadera; Alemseged, Fessahaye; Angesom, Teklit; Hintsa, Solomon; Abay, Mebrahtu

2017-01-01

The global incidence of HIV infection is not significantly decreasing, especially in sub-Saharan African countries, including Ethiopia. Though there is availability and accessibility of free HIV services, people are not being diagnosed early for HIV, and hence patients are still dying of HIV-related causes. This research is aimed at verifying the effect of late diagnosis of HIV on HIV-related mortality in Central Zone Tigray, Ethiopia. A retrospective cohort study among adult (≥15 years old) HIV patients in three general hospitals of Tigray was conducted. Record reviews were carried out retrospectively from 2010 to 2015. Sample size was determined using stpower Cox in Stata software. Data were entered into EpiData version 3.1 software and transferred to Stata version 12 for analysis. Both bivariable and multivariable analyses were performed using Cox regression model to compare the HIV-related mortality of exposed (cluster of differentiation 4 cells count <350 cells/mm 3 ) and nonexposed (≥350 cells/mm 3 ) patients using adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) at 95% confidence interval (CI). In all, 638 HIV patients were analyzed, contributing 2,105.6 person-years. Forty-eight (7.5%) patients died of HIV-related causes with a mortality rate of 2.28 per 100 person-years. In the multivariable Cox regression model, patients with late diagnosis of HIV had a higher risk of mortality (AHR =3.22, 95% CI: 1.17-8.82) than patients with early diagnosis of HIV. Rural residence (AHR =1.96, 95% CI: 1.05-3.68), unemployment (AHR =2.70, 95% CI: 1.03-7.08), bedridden patients (AHR =2.98, 95% CI: 1.45-6.13), ambulatory patients (AHR =2.54, 95% CI: 1.05-6.15), and baseline hemoglobin level of <11 mg/dL (AHR =3.06, 95% CI: 1.51-6.23) were other independent predictors of mortality. Late diagnosis of HIV increased HIV-related mortality. Rural residence, unemployment, bedridden and ambulatory patients, and baseline hemoglobin level <11 mg/dL were also independent predictors of HIV-related mortality.

Human TERT promoter mutation enables survival advantage from MGMT promoter methylation in IDH1 wild-type primary glioblastoma treated by standard chemoradiotherapy.

PubMed

Nguyen, HuyTram N; Lie, Amy; Li, Tie; Chowdhury, Reshmi; Liu, Fei; Ozer, Byram; Wei, Bowen; Green, Richard M; Ellingson, Benjamin M; Wang, He-Jing; Elashoff, Robert; Liau, Linda M; Yong, William H; Nghiemphu, Phioanh L; Cloughesy, Timothy; Lai, Albert

2017-03-01

Promoter mutation in the human telomerase reverse transcriptase gene (hTERT) occurs in ~75% of primary glioblastoma (GBM). Although the mutation appears to upregulate telomerase expression and contributes to the maintenance of telomere length, its clinical significance remains unclear. We performed hTERT promoter genotyping on 303 isocitrate dehydrogenase 1 wild-type GBM tumors treated with standard chemoradiotherapy. We also stratified 190 GBM patients from the database of The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) by hTERT gene expression. We analyzed overall and progression-free survival by Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression. We detected hTERT promoter mutation in 75% of the patients. When included as the only biomarker, hTERT mutation was not prognostic in our patient cohort by Cox regression analysis. However, when hTERT and O6-DNA methylguanine-methyltransferase (MGMT) were included together, we observed an interaction between these 2 factors. To further investigate this interaction, we performed pairwise comparison of the 4 patient subcohorts grouped by hTERT-MGMT status (MUT-M, WT-M, MUT-U, and WT-U). MGMT methylated patients showed improved survival only in the presence of hTERT promoter mutation: MUT-M versus MUT-U (overall survival of 28.3 vs 15.9 mos, log-rank P < .0001 and progression-free survival of 15.4 vs 7.86 mo, log-rank P < .0001). These results were confirmed by Cox analyses. Analogously, the cohort from TCGA demonstrated survival benefit of MGMT promoter methylation only in patients with high hTERT expression. In addition, hTERT mutation was negatively prognostic in our MGMT unmethylated patients, while the analogous association with high expression was not observed in the cohort from TCGA. The prognostic influence of MGMT promoter methylation depends on hTERT promoter mutation. This interaction warrants further mechanistic investigation. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Neuro-Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Immortal time bias in drug safety cohort studies: spontaneous abortion following nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug exposure.

PubMed

Daniel, Sharon; Koren, Gideon; Lunenfeld, Eitan; Levy, Amalia

2015-03-01

Experimental research of drug safety in pregnancy is generally not feasible because of ethical issues. Therefore, most of the information about drug safety in general and teratogenicity in particular is obtained through observational studies, which require careful methodologic design to obtain unbiased results. Immortal time bias occurs when some cases do not "survive" sufficient time in the study, and as such, they have reduced chances of being defined as "exposed" simply because the durations of their follow-ups were shorter. For example, studies that examine the risk for spontaneous abortions in women exposed to a drug during pregnancy are susceptible to immortal time bias because the chance of drug exposure increases the longer a pregnancy lasts. Therefore, the drug tested may falsely be found protective against the outcome tested. The objective of the current study was to illustrate the extent of immortal time bias using a cohort study of pregnancies assessing the risk for spontaneous abortions following nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug exposure. We assembled 3 databases containing data on spontaneous abortions, births and drug dispensions to create the present study's cohort. The risk for spontaneous abortion was assessed using 2 statistical analysis methods that were compared for 2 definitions of exposure (dichotomous, exposed vs unexposed, regular Cox regression vs Cox regression with time-varying exposure). Significant differences were found in the risk for spontaneous abortions between the 2 statistical methods, both for groups and for most specific nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (nonselective Cox inhibitors - hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.94 vs hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.22 for dichotomous vs time-varying exposure analyses, respectively). Furthermore, a significant correlation was found between the median misclassified immortal time for each drug and the extent of the bias. Immortal time bias can easily occur in cohort studies assessing the risk for adverse pregnancy outcomes following exposure to drugs. One way to prevent such a bias is by defining exposure only from the time of exposure during follow-up onward using a time-varying exposure analysis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multifunctional Single-Phase Photocatalysts: Extended Near Infrared Photoactivity and Reliable Magnetic Recyclability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaoning; Zhu, Zhu; Li, Feng; Huang, Yan; Hu, Xiang; Huang, Haoliang; Peng, Ranran; Zhai, Xiaofang; Fu, Zhengping; Lu, Yalin

2015-10-01

A practical photocatalyst should be able to integrate together various functions including the extended solar conversion, a feasible and economic recyclability, and above the room temperature operation potential, et al., in order to fulfill the spreading application needs in nowadays. In this report, a multifunctional single-phase photocatalyst which possesses a high photoactivity extended into the near infrared region, an easy magnetic recyclability and the high temperature stability was developed by doping Co into a new layer-structured Bi7Fe3Ti3O21 material. Light absorption and photocatalytic activity of the resulted Bi7Fe3-xCoxTi3O21 photocatalyst were extended to the long wavelength as far as 800 nm. Its strong ferromagnetism above the room temperature enables the nanopowders fully recyclable in viscous solutions simply with a magnet bar in an experimental demonstration. Furthermore, such photoactivity and magnetic recyclability were heavily tested under high-temperature and high-viscosity conditions, which was intended to simulate the actual industrial environments. This work brings the bright light to a full availability of a new multifunctional photocatalyst, via integrating the much enhanced ferromagnetic, ferroelectric, optoelectronic properties, most importantly, into a single-phase structure.

Associations between Soluble Receptor for Advanced Glycation End Products (sRAGE) and S100A12 (EN-RAGE) with Mortality in Long-term Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Jung, Eul Sik; Chung, Wookyung; Kim, Ae Jin; Ro, Han; Chang, Jae Hyun; Lee, Hyun Hee; Jung, Ji Yong

2017-01-01

Hemodialysis (HD) patients experience vascular calcification, ultimately leading to high mortality rates. Previously, we reported associations between soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products (sRAGEs) and extracellular newly identified RAGE-binding protein S100A12 (EN-RAGE) and vascular calcification. Here, we extended our observations, investigating whether these biomarkers may be useful for predicting cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in these subjects. Thus, we evaluated the relationship between sRAGE and S100A12 and mortality in long-term HD patients. This was a prospective observational cohort study in 199 HD patients from an extended analysis of our previous study. Plasma sRAGE, S100A12, comorbidities, and other traditional risk factors were investigated. The cumulative incidences for death using Cox proportional hazards regression were evaluated in multivariable analyses. The observation period was 44 months. During the observation period, 27 (13.6%) patients died. Univariate analysis demonstrated that S100A12 was correlated with diabetes (P = 0.040) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) (P = 0.006). In multivariable analyses, plasma sRAGE (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.155; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.612-2.183; P = 0.656) and S100A12 (HR = 0.960; 95% CI = 0.566-1.630; P = 0.881) were not associated with mortality in HD patients, although traditional predictors of mortality, including age, history of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), and serum levels of albumin and hsCRP were related to mortality. Powerful predictors of mortality were age, CVD, and albumin levels. Plasma sRAGE and S100A12 may be weak surrogate markers for predicting all-cause mortality in patients undergoing HD, although S100A12 was partly related to diabetes and inflammation.

The Effect of Anatomical Location of Lymph Node Metastases on Cancer Specific Survival in Patients with Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma.

PubMed

Nini, Alessandro; Larcher, Alessandro; Cianflone, Francesco; Trevisani, Francesco; Terrone, Carlo; Volpe, Alessandro; Regis, Federica; Briganti, Alberto; Salonia, Andrea; Montorsi, Francesco; Bertini, Roberto; Capitanio, Umberto

2018-01-01

Positive nodal status (pN1) is an independent predictor of survival in renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients. However, no study to date has tested whether the location of lymph node (LN) metastases does affect oncologic outcomes in a population submitted to radical nephrectomy (RN) and extended lymph node dissection (eLND). To describe nodal disease dissemination in clear cell RCC (ccRCC) patients and to assess the effect of the anatomical sites and the number of nodal areas affected on cancer specific mortality (CSM). The study included 415 patients who underwent RN and eLND, defined as the removal of hilar, side-specific (pre/paraaortic or pre/paracaval) and interaortocaval LNs for ccRCC, at two institutions. Descriptive statistics were used to depict nodal dissemination in pN1 patients, stratified according to nodal site and number of involved areas. Multivariable Cox regression analyses and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to explore the relationship between pN1 disease features and survival outcomes. Median number of removed LN was 14 (IQR 9-19); 23% of patients were pN1. Among patients with one involved nodal site, 54 and 26% of patients were positive only in side-specific and interaortocaval station, respectively. The most frequent nodal site was the interaortocaval and side-specific one, for right and left ccRCC, respectively. Interaortocaval nodal positivity (HR 2.3, CI 95%: 1.3-3.9, p < 0.01) represented an independent predictor of CSM. When ccRCC patient harbour nodal disease, its spreading can occur at any nodal station without involving the others. The presence of interoartocaval positive nodes does affect oncologic outcomes. Lymph node invasion in patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma is not following a fixed anatomical pattern. An extended lymph node dissection, during treatment for primary kidney tumour, would aid patient risk stratification and multimodality upfront treatment.

Multicenter Retrospective Study of Cefmetazole and Flomoxef for Treatment of Extended-Spectrum-β-Lactamase-Producing Escherichia coli Bacteremia

PubMed Central

Yamamoto, Masaki; Nagao, Miki; Komori, Toshiaki; Fujita, Naohisa; Hayashi, Akihiko; Shimizu, Tsunehiro; Watanabe, Harumi; Doi, Shoichi; Tanaka, Michio; Takakura, Shunji; Ichiyama, Satoshi

2015-01-01

The efficacy of cefmetazole and flomoxef (CF) for the treatment of patients with extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC) bacteremia (ESBL-CF group) was compared with that of carbapenem treatment for ESBL-EC patients (ESBL-carbapenem group) and with that of CF treatment in patients with non-ESBL-EC bacteremia (non-ESBL-CF group). Adult patients treated for E. coli bacteremia in four hospitals were retrospectively evaluated. The 30-day mortality rates in patients belonging to the ESBL-CF, ESBL-carbapenem, and non-ESBL-CF groups were compared as 2 (empirical and definitive therapy) cohorts. The adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for mortality were calculated using Cox regression models with weighting according to the inverse probability of propensity scores for receiving CF or carbapenem treatment. The empirical-therapy cohort included 104 patients (ESBL-CF, 26; ESBL-carbapenem, 45; non-ESBL-CF, 33), and the definitive-therapy cohort included 133 patients (ESBL-CF, 59; ESBL-carbapenem, 54; non-ESBL-CF, 20). The crude 30-day mortality rates for patients in the ESBL-CF, ESBL-carbapenem, and non-ESBL-CF groups were, respectively, 7.7%, 8.9%, and 3.0% in the empirical-therapy cohort and 5.1%, 9.3%, and 5.0% in the definitve-therapy cohort. In patients without hematological malignancy and neutropenia, CF treatment for ESBL-EC patients was not associated with mortality compared with carbapenem treatment (empirical-therapy cohort: aHR, 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.11 to 6.52; definitive therapy cohort: aHR, 1.04; CI, 0.24 to 4.49). CF therapy may represent an effective alternative to carbapenem treatment for patients with ESBL-EC bacteremia for empirical and definitive therapy in adult patients who do not have hematological malignancy and neutropenia. PMID:26100708

Multicenter retrospective study of cefmetazole and flomoxef for treatment of extended-spectrum-β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli bacteremia.

PubMed

Matsumura, Yasufumi; Yamamoto, Masaki; Nagao, Miki; Komori, Toshiaki; Fujita, Naohisa; Hayashi, Akihiko; Shimizu, Tsunehiro; Watanabe, Harumi; Doi, Shoichi; Tanaka, Michio; Takakura, Shunji; Ichiyama, Satoshi

2015-09-01

The efficacy of cefmetazole and flomoxef (CF) for the treatment of patients with extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC) bacteremia (ESBL-CF group) was compared with that of carbapenem treatment for ESBL-EC patients (ESBL-carbapenem group) and with that of CF treatment in patients with non-ESBL-EC bacteremia (non-ESBL-CF group). Adult patients treated for E. coli bacteremia in four hospitals were retrospectively evaluated. The 30-day mortality rates in patients belonging to the ESBL-CF, ESBL-carbapenem, and non-ESBL-CF groups were compared as 2 (empirical and definitive therapy) cohorts. The adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for mortality were calculated using Cox regression models with weighting according to the inverse probability of propensity scores for receiving CF or carbapenem treatment. The empirical-therapy cohort included 104 patients (ESBL-CF, 26; ESBL-carbapenem, 45; non-ESBL-CF, 33), and the definitive-therapy cohort included 133 patients (ESBL-CF, 59; ESBL-carbapenem, 54; non-ESBL-CF, 20). The crude 30-day mortality rates for patients in the ESBL-CF, ESBL-carbapenem, and non-ESBL-CF groups were, respectively, 7.7%, 8.9%, and 3.0% in the empirical-therapy cohort and 5.1%, 9.3%, and 5.0% in the definitve-therapy cohort. In patients without hematological malignancy and neutropenia, CF treatment for ESBL-EC patients was not associated with mortality compared with carbapenem treatment (empirical-therapy cohort: aHR, 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.11 to 6.52; definitive therapy cohort: aHR, 1.04; CI, 0.24 to 4.49). CF therapy may represent an effective alternative to carbapenem treatment for patients with ESBL-EC bacteremia for empirical and definitive therapy in adult patients who do not have hematological malignancy and neutropenia. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Clinical outcome of extended-field irradiation vs. pelvic irradiation using intensity-modulated radiotherapy for cervical cancer.

PubMed

Ouyang, Yi; Wang, Yanhong; Chen, Kai; Cao, Xinping; Zeng, Yiming

2017-12-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the distinctions in survival and toxicity between patients with cervical cancer with common iliac node or para-aortic node involvement, who were treated with extended-field intensity-modulated radiotherapy (EF-IMRT) and patients with or without lower involved pelvic nodes, who were treated with pelvic IMRT. A total of 55 patients treated with EF-IMRT and 52 patients treated with pelvic IMRT at the Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center (Guangzhou, China) were retrospectively analyzed. Patients treated with EF-IMRT had the highest level of lymph node involvement to the para-aortic or common iliac nodes, while patients treated with pelvic IMRT had no para-aortic or common iliac nodes involved (P<0.001). The median follow-up time was 29.5 months. The 3-year overall survival (OS) rates of EF-IMRT and pelvic IMRT were 79.4 and 82.3% (P=0.45), respectively, and the 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) rates of EF-IMRT and pelvic IMRT were 61.0 and 73.7% (P=0.55), respectively. Cox's regression analysis revealed that EF irradiation was a protective prognostic factor for OS and DFS. A total of 16 patients in the EF-IMRT group and 13 patients in the pelvic IMRT group experienced treatment failure (P=0.67), with the patterns of failure being the same for the two groups (P=0.88). The cumulative incidence of grade 3 and 4 acute toxicities in the EF-IMRT group was 34.5%, in comparison with 19.2% in the pelvic group (P=0.048). The results of the present study suggest that patients with cervical cancer with grossly involved common iliac or para-aortic nodes should be electively subjected to EF irradiation to improve the survival and alter patterns of recurrence. Notably, EF irradiation delivered via IMRT exhibits an increased toxicity incidence, however, this remains within an acceptable range.

Clinical outcome of extended-field irradiation vs. pelvic irradiation using intensity-modulated radiotherapy for cervical cancer

PubMed Central

Ouyang, Yi; Wang, Yanhong; Chen, Kai; Cao, Xinping; Zeng, Yiming

2017-01-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the distinctions in survival and toxicity between patients with cervical cancer with common iliac node or para-aortic node involvement, who were treated with extended-field intensity-modulated radiotherapy (EF-IMRT) and patients with or without lower involved pelvic nodes, who were treated with pelvic IMRT. A total of 55 patients treated with EF-IMRT and 52 patients treated with pelvic IMRT at the Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center (Guangzhou, China) were retrospectively analyzed. Patients treated with EF-IMRT had the highest level of lymph node involvement to the para-aortic or common iliac nodes, while patients treated with pelvic IMRT had no para-aortic or common iliac nodes involved (P<0.001). The median follow-up time was 29.5 months. The 3-year overall survival (OS) rates of EF-IMRT and pelvic IMRT were 79.4 and 82.3% (P=0.45), respectively, and the 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) rates of EF-IMRT and pelvic IMRT were 61.0 and 73.7% (P=0.55), respectively. Cox's regression analysis revealed that EF irradiation was a protective prognostic factor for OS and DFS. A total of 16 patients in the EF-IMRT group and 13 patients in the pelvic IMRT group experienced treatment failure (P=0.67), with the patterns of failure being the same for the two groups (P=0.88). The cumulative incidence of grade 3 and 4 acute toxicities in the EF-IMRT group was 34.5%, in comparison with 19.2% in the pelvic group (P=0.048). The results of the present study suggest that patients with cervical cancer with grossly involved common iliac or para-aortic nodes should be electively subjected to EF irradiation to improve the survival and alter patterns of recurrence. Notably, EF irradiation delivered via IMRT exhibits an increased toxicity incidence, however, this remains within an acceptable range. PMID:29344136

Time to unsafe sexual practice among cross-border female sex workers in Metemma Yohannes, North West Ethiopia.

PubMed

Gezie, Lemma Derseh; Taye, Belaynew Wassie; Ayele, Tadesse Awoke

2015-07-28

Because of the nature of their work, female sex workers are at risk of sexually transmitted diseases. Cross-border areas are places where this situation becomes worse. In Ethiopia, there has been a serious scarcity of studies on the time at which unsafe sexual practice starts and on factors which determine the practice among female sex workers there. Therefore, this study aimed to fill this identified gap. A total of 467 women who had been sex workers at least for three months prior to the resumption of the study were included. A structured and pre-tested questionnaire was used to collect data from July-August, 2010. Descriptive statistics was used to explore the data, and the Extended Cox-Regression model was employed to identify the predictors of time-to-unsafe sexual practice. The study participants were followed for 6, 643 person-months. The overall incidence density of unsafe sexual practice was 44.71 persons per 1000 persons-months. The hazard of unsafe sexual practice increased by 3.0 % every month (p-value =0.040) due to problem-drinking. Those female sex workers with familiarized clients had a two-fold hazard of practicing unsafe sex compared to their counterparts (AHR = 1.94 95 % CI 1.49, 2.53). The predominant sexual client type and the work place of sex workers were the other significant predictors of unsafe sexual practice. The incidence of unsafe sexual practice was found to be high among sex workers in the cross-border area. Time-to-unsafe sexual practice was significantly associated with female sex workers' status of familiarity with their clients, predominant sexual client type, their work place, and the interaction term of time and problem-drinking. Interventions need to be made on these controllable social and behavioral characteristics to help sex workers extend the duration of their safe sexual practice beyond the time they will quit sex work.

Maternal and Neonatal Birth Factors Affecting the Age of ASD Diagnosis.

PubMed

Darcy-Mahoney, Ashley; Minter, Bonnie; Higgins, Melinda; Guo, Ying; Zauche, Lauren Head; Hirst, Jessica

2016-12-01

Early diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) enables early intervention that improves long term functioning of children with ASD but is often delayed until age of school entry. Few studies have identified factors that affect timely diagnosis. This study addressed how maternal education, race, age, marital status as well as neonatal birth factors affect the age at which a child is diagnosed with ASD. This study involved a retrospective analysis of 664 records of children treated at one of the largest autism treatment centers in the United States from March 1, 2009 to December 30, 2010. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to identify maternal and neonatal factors associated with age of diagnosis. Infant gender, maternal race, marital status, and maternal age were identified as significant factors for predicting the age of ASD diagnosis. In the Cox proportional hazards regression model, only maternal race and marital status were included. Median survival age till diagnosis of children born to married mothers was 53.4 months compared to 57.8 months and 63.7 months of children born to single and divorced or widowed mothers respectively. Median survival age till diagnosis for children of African American mothers was 53.8 months compared to 57.2 months for children of Caucasian mothers. No statistically significant difference of timing of ASD diagnosis was found for children of varying gestational age. Children born to older or married mothers and mothers of minority races were more likely to have an earlier ASD diagnosis. No statistically significant differences in timing of ASD diagnosis were found for children born at varying gestational ages. Identification of these factors has the potential to inform public health outreach aimed at promoting timely ASD diagnosis. This work could enhance clinical practice for timelier diagnoses of ASD by supporting parents and clinicians around the world in identifying risk factors beyond gender and SES and developing strategies to recognize earlier signs of ASD and contribute to improved development outcomes in children with ASD.

Serum Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2-binding protein evaluates liver function and predicts prognosis in liver cirrhosis.

PubMed

Xu, Wen Ping; Wang, Ze Rui; Zou, Xia; Zhao, Chen; Wang, Rui; Shi, Pei Mei; Yuan, Zong Li; Yang, Fang; Zeng, Xin; Wang, Pei Qin; Sultan, Sakhawat; Zhang, Yan; Xie, Wei Fen

2018-04-01

Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2-binding protein (WFA + -M2BP) is a novel glycobiomarker for evaluating liver fibrosis, but less is known about its role in liver cirrhosis (LC). This study aimed to investigate the utility of WFA + -M2BP in evaluating liver function and predicting prognosis of cirrhotic patients. We retrospectively included 197 patients with LC between 2013 and 2016. Serum WFA + -M2BP and various biochemical parameters were measured in all patients. With a median follow-up of 23 months, liver-related complications and deaths of 160 patients were recorded. The accuracy of WFA + -M2BP in evaluating liver function, predicting decompensation and mortality were measured by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, logistic and Cox's regression analyses, respectively. WFA + -M2BP levels increased with elevated Child-Pugh classification, especially in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. ROC analysis confirmed the high reliability of WFA + -M2BP for the assessment of liver function using Child-Pugh classification. WFA + -M2BP was also significantly positively correlated with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated WFA + -M2BP as an independent predictor of clinical decompensation for compensated patients (odds ratio 11.958, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.876-76.226, P = 0.009), and multivariate Cox's regression analysis verified WFA + -M2BP as an independent risk factor for liver-related death in patients with HBV infection (hazards ratio 10.596, 95% CI 1.356-82.820, P = 0.024). Serum WFA + -M2BP is a reliable predictor of liver function and prognosis in LC and could be incorporated into clinical surveillance strategies for LC patients, especially those with HBV infection. © 2018 Chinese Medical Association Shanghai Branch, Chinese Society of Gastroenterology, Renji Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Combined Endoscopic/Sonographic-Based Risk Matrix Model for Predicting One-Year Risk of Surgery: A Prospective Observational Study of a Tertiary Center Severe/Refractory Crohn's Disease Cohort.

PubMed

Rispo, Antonio; Imperatore, Nicola; Testa, Anna; Bucci, Luigi; Luglio, Gaetano; De Palma, Giovanni Domenico; Rea, Matilde; Nardone, Olga Maria; Caporaso, Nicola; Castiglione, Fabiana

2018-03-08

In the management of Crohn's Disease (CD) patients, having a simple score combining clinical, endoscopic and imaging features to predict the risk of surgery could help to tailor treatment more effectively. AIMS: to prospectively evaluate the one-year risk factors for surgery in refractory/severe CD and to generate a risk matrix for predicting the probability of surgery at one year. CD patients needing a disease re-assessment at our tertiary IBD centre underwent clinical, laboratory, endoscopy and bowel sonography (BS) examinations within one week. The optimal cut-off values in predicting surgery were identified using ROC curves for Simple Endoscopic Score for CD (SES-CD), bowel wall thickness (BWT) at BS, and small bowel CD extension at BS. Binary logistic regression and Cox's regression were then carried out. Finally, the probabilities of surgery were calculated for selected baseline levels of covariates and results were arranged in a prediction matrix. Of 100 CD patients, 30 underwent surgery within one year. SES-CD©9 (OR 15.3; p<0.001), BWT©7 mm (OR 15.8; p<0.001), small bowel CD extension at BS©33 cm (OR 8.23; p<0.001) and stricturing/penetrating behavior (OR 4.3; p<0.001) were the only independent factors predictive of surgery at one-year based on binary logistic and Cox's regressions. Our matrix model combined these risk factors and the probability of surgery ranged from 0.48% to 87.5% (sixteen combinations). Our risk matrix combining clinical, endoscopic and ultrasonographic findings can accurately predict the one-year risk of surgery in patients with severe/refractory CD requiring a disease re-evaluation. This tool could be of value in clinical practice, serving as the basis for a tailored management of CD patients.

Effect of ionized serum calcium on outcomes in acute kidney injury needing renal replacement therapy: Secondary analysis of the Acute Renal Failure Trial Network Study

PubMed Central

Afshinnia, Farsad; Belanger, Karen; Palevsky, Paul M.; Young, Eric W.

2014-01-01

Background Hypocalcemia is very common in critically ill patients. While the effect of ionized calcium (iCa) on outcome is not well understood, manipulation of iCa in critically ill patients is a common practice. We analyzed all-cause mortality and several secondary outcomes in patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) by categories of serum iCa among participants in the Acute Renal Failure Trial Network (ATN) Study. Methods This is a post hoc secondary analysis of the ATN Study which was not preplanned in the original trial. Risk of mortality and renal recovery by categories of iCa were compared using multiple fixed and adjusted time-varying Cox regression models. Multiple linear regression models were used to explore the impact of baseline iCa on days free from ICU and hospital. Results A total of 685 patients were included in the analysis. Mean age was 60 (SD=15) years. There were 502 male patients (73.3%). Sixty-day all-cause mortality was 57.0%, 54.8%, and 54.4%, in patients with an iCa <1, 1–1.14, and ≥1.15 mmol/L, respectively (P=0.87). Mean of days free from ICU or hospital in all patients and the 28-day renal recovery in survivors to day 28 were not significantly different by categories of iCa. The hazard for death in a fully adjusted time-varying Cox regression survival model was 1.7 (95% CI: 1.3–2.4) comparing iCa <1 to iCa ≥1.15 mmol/L. No outcome was different for levels of iCa >1 mmol/L. Conclusion Severe hypocalcemia with iCa <1 mmol/L independently predicted mortality in patients with AKI needing renal replacement therapy. PMID:23992422

Intake of different types of dairy and its prospective association with risk of type 2 diabetes: The Rotterdam Study.

PubMed

Brouwer-Brolsma, E M; van Woudenbergh, G J; Oude Elferink, S J W H; Singh-Povel, C M; Hofman, A; Dehghan, A; Franco, O H; Feskens, E J M

2016-11-01

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is increasing. Several studies have suggested a beneficial effect of several major dairy nutrients on insulin production and sensitivity. Conversely, harmful effects have been suggested as well. This study aimed to investigate the impact of the full-range of dairy products and its association with incidence T2DM in Dutch adults aged ≥55 years participating in the Rotterdam Study. Dairy intake was assessed with a validated FFQ, including total, skimmed, semi-skimmed, full-fat, fermented, and non-fermented dairy, and subclasses of these product groups. Verified prevalent and incident diabetes were documented. Cox proportional hazards regression and spline regression were used to analyse data, adjusting for age, sex, alcohol, smoking, education, physical activity, body mass index, intake of total energy, energy-adjusted meat, and energy-adjusted fish intake. Median total dairy intake was 398 g/day (IQR 259-559 g/day). Through 9.5 ± 4.1 years of follow-up, 393 cases of incident T2DM were reported. Cox and spline regression did not point towards associations of total dairy consumption, dairy consumption based on fat content, non-fermented or fermented dairy consumption, or individual dairy product consumption with incident T2DM. The HR for total dairy intake and T2DM was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.70-1.23) in the upper quartile (P-for trend 0.76). This prospective cohort study did not point towards an association between dairy consumption and T2DM. Copyright © 2016 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Outcome of Acute Prosthetic Joint Infections Due to Gram-Negative Bacilli Treated with Open Debridement and Retention of the Prosthesis▿

PubMed Central

Martínez-Pastor, Juan C.; Muñoz-Mahamud, Ernesto; Vilchez, Félix; García-Ramiro, Sebastián; Bori, Guillem; Sierra, Josep; Martínez, José A.; Font, Lluis; Mensa, Josep; Soriano, Alex

2009-01-01

The aim of our study was to evaluate the outcome of acute prosthetic joint infections (PJIs) due to gram-negative bacilli (GNB) treated without implant removal. Patients with an acute PJI due to GNB diagnosed from 2000 to 2007 were prospectively registered. Demographics, comorbidity, type of implant, microbiology data, surgical treatment, antimicrobial therapy, and outcome were recorded. Classification and regression tree analysis, the Kaplan-Meier survival method, and the Cox regression model were applied. Forty-seven patients were included. The mean age was 70.7 years, and there were 15 hip prostheses and 32 knee prostheses. The median number of days from the time of arthroplasty was 20. The most frequent pathogens were members of the Enterobacteriaceae family in 41 cases and Pseudomonas spp. in 20 cases. Among the Enterobacteriaceae, 14 were resistant to ciprofloxacin, while all Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates were susceptible to ciprofloxacin. The median durations of intravenous and oral antibiotic treatment were 14 and 64 days, respectively. A total of 35 (74.5%) patients were in remission after a median follow-up of 463 days (interquartile range, 344 to 704) days. By use of the Kaplan-Meier survival curve, a C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration of ≤15 mg/dl (P = 0.03) and receipt of a fluoroquinolone, when all GNB isolated were susceptible (P = 0.0009), were associated with a better outcome. By use of a Cox regression model, a CRP concentration of ≤15 mg/dl (odds ratio [OR], 3.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05 to 12.5; P = 0.043) and receipt of a fluoroquinolone (OR, 9.09; 95% CI, 1.96 to 50; P = 0.005) were independently associated with better outcomes. Open debridement without removal of the implant had a success rate of 74.5%, and the factors associated with good prognosis were a CRP concentration at the time of diagnosis ≤15 mg/dl and treatment with a fluoroquinolone. PMID:19687237

Prevalence and Evolution of Renal Impairment in People Living With HIV in Rural Tanzania.

PubMed

Mapesi, Herry; Kalinjuma, Aneth V; Ngerecha, Alphonce; Franzeck, Fabian; Hatz, Christoph; Tanner, Marcel; Mayr, Michael; Furrer, Hansjakob; Battegay, Manuel; Letang, Emilio; Weisser, Maja; Glass, Tracy R

2018-04-01

We assessed the prevalence, incidence, and predictors of renal impairment among people living with HIV (PLWHIV) in rural Tanzania. In a cohort of PLWHIV aged ≥15 years enrolled from January 2013 to June 2016, we assessed the association between renal impairment (estimated glomerural filtration rate < 90 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ) at enrollment and during follow-up with demographic and clinical characteristcis using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models. Of 1093 PLWHIV, 172 (15.7%) had renal impairment at enrollment. Of 921 patients with normal renal function at baseline, 117 (12.7%) developed renal impairment during a median follow-up (interquartile range) of 6.2 (0.4-14.7) months. The incidence of renal impairment was 110 cases per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 92-132). At enrollment, logistic regression identified older age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.79; 95% CI, 1.52-2.11), hypertension (aOR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.08-3.15), CD4 count <200 cells/mm 3 (aOR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.23-2.65), and World Health Organization (WHO) stage III/IV (aOR, 3.00; 95% CI, 1.96-4.58) as risk factors for renal impairment. Cox regression model confirmed older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.85; 95% CI, 1.56-2.20) and CD4 count <200 cells/mm 3 (aHR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.36-3.09) to be associated with the development of renal impairment. Our study found a low prevalence of renal impairment among PLWHIV despite high usage of tenofovir and its association with age, hypertension, low CD4 count, and advanced WHO stage. These important and reassuring safety data stress the significance of noncommunicable disease surveillance in aging HIV populations in sub-Saharan Africa.

A Quasi-Experiment To Study the Impact of Vancomycin Area under the Concentration-Time Curve-Guided Dosing on Vancomycin-Associated Nephrotoxicity

PubMed Central

Finch, Natalie A.; Zasowski, Evan J.; Murray, Kyle P.; Mynatt, Ryan P.; Zhao, Jing J.; Yost, Raymond; Pogue, Jason M.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Evidence suggests that maintenance of vancomycin trough concentrations at between 15 and 20 mg/liter, as currently recommended, is frequently unnecessary to achieve the daily area under the concentration-time curve (AUC24) target of ≥400 mg · h/liter. Many patients with trough concentrations in this range have AUC24 values in excess of the therapeutic threshold and within the exposure range associated with nephrotoxicity. On the basis of this, the Detroit Medical Center switched from trough concentration-guided dosing to AUC-guided dosing to minimize potentially unnecessary vancomycin exposure. The primary objective of this analysis was to assess the impact of this intervention on vancomycin-associated nephrotoxicity in a single-center, retrospective quasi-experiment of hospitalized adult patients receiving intravenous vancomycin from 2014 to 2015. The primary analysis compared the incidence of nephrotoxicity between patients monitored by assessment of the AUC24 and those monitored by assessment of the trough concentration. Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression examined the independent association between the monitoring strategy and nephrotoxicity. Secondary analysis compared vancomycin exposures (total daily dose, AUC, and trough concentrations) between monitoring strategies. Overall, 1,280 patients were included in the analysis. After adjusting for severity of illness, comorbidity, duration of vancomycin therapy, and concomitant receipt of nephrotoxins, AUC-guided dosing was independently associated with lower nephrotoxicity by both logistic regression (odds ratio, 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.34 to 0.80; P = 0.003) and Cox proportional hazards regression (hazard ratio, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.78; P = 0.002). AUC-guided dosing was associated with lower total daily vancomycin doses, AUC values, and trough concentrations. Vancomycin AUC-guided dosing was associated with reduced nephrotoxicity, which appeared to be a result of reduced vancomycin exposure. PMID:28923869

Outcome of acute prosthetic joint infections due to gram-negative bacilli treated with open debridement and retention of the prosthesis.

PubMed

Martínez-Pastor, Juan C; Muñoz-Mahamud, Ernesto; Vilchez, Félix; García-Ramiro, Sebastián; Bori, Guillem; Sierra, Josep; Martínez, José A; Font, Lluis; Mensa, Josep; Soriano, Alex

2009-11-01

The aim of our study was to evaluate the outcome of acute prosthetic joint infections (PJIs) due to gram-negative bacilli (GNB) treated without implant removal. Patients with an acute PJI due to GNB diagnosed from 2000 to 2007 were prospectively registered. Demographics, comorbidity, type of implant, microbiology data, surgical treatment, antimicrobial therapy, and outcome were recorded. Classification and regression tree analysis, the Kaplan-Meier survival method, and the Cox regression model were applied. Forty-seven patients were included. The mean age was 70.7 years, and there were 15 hip prostheses and 32 knee prostheses. The median number of days from the time of arthroplasty was 20. The most frequent pathogens were members of the Enterobacteriaceae family in 41 cases and Pseudomonas spp. in 20 cases. Among the Enterobacteriaceae, 14 were resistant to ciprofloxacin, while all Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates were susceptible to ciprofloxacin. The median durations of intravenous and oral antibiotic treatment were 14 and 64 days, respectively. A total of 35 (74.5%) patients were in remission after a median follow-up of 463 days (interquartile range, 344 to 704) days. By use of the Kaplan-Meier survival curve, a C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration of < or = 15 mg/dl (P = 0.03) and receipt of a fluoroquinolone, when all GNB isolated were susceptible (P = 0.0009), were associated with a better outcome. By use of a Cox regression model, a CRP concentration of < or = 15 mg/dl (odds ratio [OR], 3.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05 to 12.5; P = 0.043) and receipt of a fluoroquinolone (OR, 9.09; 95% CI, 1.96 to 50; P = 0.005) were independently associated with better outcomes. Open debridement without removal of the implant had a success rate of 74.5%, and the factors associated with good prognosis were a CRP concentration at the time of diagnosis < or = 15 mg/dl and treatment with a fluoroquinolone.

Is there a benefit to adjuvant radiation in stage III penile cancer after lymph node dissection? Findings from the National Cancer Database.

PubMed

Winters, Brian R; Kearns, James T; Holt, Sarah K; Mossanen, Matthew; Lin, Daniel W; Wright, Jonathan L

2018-03-01

The role of adjuvant radiation in advanced penile cancer (PC) is unknown. We used the National Cancer Database (NCDB) to determine factors associated with receiving adjuvant radiation (aXRT) and their influence on prognosis in men who underwent inguinal lymph node dissection (ILND) for stage III disease. We queried the NCDB from 1998-2012 for all men with PC who had pathologic nodal status and aXRT data available. Clinical and pathologic variables associated with aXRT were examined using chi-square testing. Logistic regression evaluated the odds of receiving aXRT while multivariate Cox regression analysis evaluated the influence of aXRT on overall survival (OS). A total of 589 patients underwent ILND for stage III PC with 23% (N = 136) receiving aXRT. Mean age was 61.8 ±13.7 years. Factors associated with receiving aXRT included higher pathologic nodal stage (MV OR 1.85, 95% CI: 1.13-3.05), while greater distance of travel (MV OR 0.48, 95% CI: 0.25-0.92), and treatment in an academic setting (MV OR 0.53, 95% CI: 0.35-0.81) were inversely associated with receiving aXRT. On Cox regression analysis, aXRT improved OS (combined HR 0.58, 95% CI: 0.39-0.86), which appeared to have been driven by higher nodal burden (N2: HR 0.53, 95% CI: 0.32-0.88; N1: HR 1.36, 95% CI: 0.60-3.09). Determinants of aXRT delivery in stage III PC appear to be related to the proximity to community cancer centers and greater nodal burden. We find evidence of a survival benefit with the use of aXRT, particularly in those with higher nodal stage. Multi-institutional studies are needed to confirm these findings and improve treatment algorithms for high-stage PC. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Operating room-to-incision interval and neonatal outcome in emergency caesarean section: a retrospective 5-year cohort study.

PubMed

Palmer, E; Ciechanowicz, S; Reeve, A; Harris, S; Wong, D J N; Sultan, P

2018-07-01

We conducted a 5-year retrospective cohort study on women undergoing caesarean section to investigate factors influencing the operating room-to-incision interval. Time-to-event analysis was performed for category-1 caesarean section using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. Covariates included: anaesthetic technique; body mass index; age; parity; time of delivery; and gestational age. Binary logistic regression was performed for 5-min Apgar score ≥ 7. There were 677 women who underwent category-1 caesarean section and who met the entry criteria. Unadjusted median (IQR [range]) operating room-to-incision intervals were: epidural top-up 11 (7-17 [0-87]) min; general anaesthesia 6 (4-11 [0-69]) min; spinal 13 (10-20 [0-83]) min; and combined spinal-epidural 24 (13-35 [0-75]) min. Cox regression showed general anaesthesia to be the most rapid method with a hazard ratio (95%CI) of 1.97 (1.60-2.44; p < 0.0001), followed by epidural top-up (reference group), spinal anaesthesia 0.79 (0.65-0.96; p = 0.02) and combined spinal-epidural 0.48 (0.35-0.67; p < 0.0001). Underweight and overweight body mass indexes were associated with longer operating room-to-incision intervals. General anaesthesia was associated with fewer 5-min Apgar scores ≥ 7 with an odds ratio (95%CI) of 0.28 (0.11-0.68; p < 0.01). There was no difference in neonatal outcomes between the first and fifth quintiles for operating room-to-incision intervals. General anaesthesia is associated with the most rapid operating room-to-incision interval for category-1 caesarean section, but is also associated with worse short term neonatal outcomes. Longer operating room-to-incision intervals were not associated with worse neonatal outcomes. © 2018 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

Delays in Post-Remission Chemotherapy for Philadelphia Chromosome Negative Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia are Associated with Inferior Outcomes in Patients who Undergo Allogeneic Transplant: an Analysis from ECOG 2993/MRC UK ALLXII

PubMed Central

Kumar, Anita J.; Rowe, Jacob M.; Goldstone, Anthony H; Fielding, Adele; Marks, David I; Litzow, Mark; Paietta, Elisabeth; Lazarus, Hillard M.; Tallman, Martin S.; Luger, Selina M.; Loren, Alison W.

2016-01-01

Adults with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) have a poorer prognosis than children due to a high risk of relapse. One explanation may be variable adherence to dose-intense chemotherapy. However, little is known about risk factors for delays in therapy and their impact on survival. We conducted an analysis of ECOG 2993/UKALLXII trial to study delays in post-remission chemotherapy in adults with newly-diagnosed ALL. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for a very long delay (>4 weeks, VLD) in start of intensification therapy. Cox regression was used to evaluate the impact of delays on overall and event-free survival (OS, EFS). We evaluated 1076 Philadelphia chromosome negative (Ph-) patients who completed induction chemotherapy, achieved complete remission, and started intensification. Factors independently associated with VLD included: duration of hospitalization (Odds Ratio (OR)=1.2, p<0.001) during Phase I; thrombocytopenia during Phase I (OR=1.16, p=0.004) or Phase II (OR 1.13, p=0.001); chemotherapy dose reductions during induction Phase I (OR=1.72, p<0.014); female sex (OR=1.53, p=0.010); Black (OR=3.24, p=0.003) and Asian (OR=2.26, p=0.021) race; and increasing age (OR=1.31, p<0.001). In multivariate Cox regression, patients who underwent allogeneic stem cell transplant (alloHCT) had significantly worse OS (HR 1.4, p=0.03) and EFS (HR 1.4, p=0.02) after experiencing a VLD compared to alloHCT patients who experienced <=4 weeks delay. Specific populations (female, older, Black, and Asian patients) were more likely to experience delays in chemotherapy, as were those with significant toxicity during induction. Very long delays in therapy negatively affected outcomes in patients undergoing allografting. PMID:27468137

A Quasi-Experiment To Study the Impact of Vancomycin Area under the Concentration-Time Curve-Guided Dosing on Vancomycin-Associated Nephrotoxicity.

PubMed

Finch, Natalie A; Zasowski, Evan J; Murray, Kyle P; Mynatt, Ryan P; Zhao, Jing J; Yost, Raymond; Pogue, Jason M; Rybak, Michael J

2017-12-01

Evidence suggests that maintenance of vancomycin trough concentrations at between 15 and 20 mg/liter, as currently recommended, is frequently unnecessary to achieve the daily area under the concentration-time curve (AUC 24 ) target of ≥400 mg · h/liter. Many patients with trough concentrations in this range have AUC 24 values in excess of the therapeutic threshold and within the exposure range associated with nephrotoxicity. On the basis of this, the Detroit Medical Center switched from trough concentration-guided dosing to AUC-guided dosing to minimize potentially unnecessary vancomycin exposure. The primary objective of this analysis was to assess the impact of this intervention on vancomycin-associated nephrotoxicity in a single-center, retrospective quasi-experiment of hospitalized adult patients receiving intravenous vancomycin from 2014 to 2015. The primary analysis compared the incidence of nephrotoxicity between patients monitored by assessment of the AUC 24 and those monitored by assessment of the trough concentration. Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression examined the independent association between the monitoring strategy and nephrotoxicity. Secondary analysis compared vancomycin exposures (total daily dose, AUC, and trough concentrations) between monitoring strategies. Overall, 1,280 patients were included in the analysis. After adjusting for severity of illness, comorbidity, duration of vancomycin therapy, and concomitant receipt of nephrotoxins, AUC-guided dosing was independently associated with lower nephrotoxicity by both logistic regression (odds ratio, 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.34 to 0.80; P = 0.003) and Cox proportional hazards regression (hazard ratio, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.78; P = 0.002). AUC-guided dosing was associated with lower total daily vancomycin doses, AUC values, and trough concentrations. Vancomycin AUC-guided dosing was associated with reduced nephrotoxicity, which appeared to be a result of reduced vancomycin exposure. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors delay the occurrence of renal involvement and are associated with a decreased risk of disease activity in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus--results from LUMINA (LIX): a multiethnic US cohort.

PubMed

Durán-Barragán, S; McGwin, G; Vilá, L M; Reveille, J D; Alarcón, G S

2008-07-01

To examine if angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor use delays the occurrence of renal involvement and decreases the risk of disease activity in SLE patients. SLE patients (Hispanics, African Americans and Caucasians) from the lupus in minorities: nature vs nurture (LUMINA) cohort were studied. Renal involvement was defined as ACR criterion and/or biopsy-proven lupus nephritis. Time-to-renal involvement was examined by univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Disease activity was examined with a case-crossover design and a conditional logistic regression model; in the case intervals, a decrease in the SLAM-R score >or=4 points occurred but not in the control intervals. Eighty of 378 patients (21%) were ACE inhibitor users; 298 (79%) were not. The probability of renal involvement free-survival at 10 yrs was 88.1% for users and 75.4% for non-users (P = 0.0099, log rank test). Users developed persistent proteinuria and/or biopsy-proven lupus nephritis (7.1%) less frequently than non-users (22.9%), P = 0.016. By multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses, ACE inhibitors use [hazard ratio (HR) 0.27; 95% CI 0.09, 0.78] was associated with a longer time-to-renal involvement occurrence whereas African American ethnicity (HR 3.31; 95% CI 1.44, 7.61) was with a shorter time. ACE inhibitor use (54/288 case and 254/1148 control intervals) was also associated with a decreased risk of disease activity (HR 0.56; 95% CI 0.34, 0.94). ACE inhibitor use delays the development of renal involvement and associates with a decreased risk of disease activity in SLE; corroboration of these findings in other lupus cohorts is desirable before practice recommendations are formulated.

Bacteraemia due to non-ESBL-producing Escherichia coli O25b:H4 sequence type 131: insights into risk factors, clinical features and outcomes.

PubMed

Morales-Barroso, Isabel; López-Cerero, Lorena; Molina, José; Bellido, Mar; Navarro, María Dolores; Serrano, Lara; González-Galán, Verónica; Praena, Julia; Pascual, Alvaro; Rodríguez-Baño, Jesús

2017-04-01

The epidemiology and outcomes of bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by Escherichia coli ST131 isolates not producing extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs) are not well defined despite being more prevalent than ESBL-producers. In this study, risk factors and the impact on outcome of BSIs caused by non-ESBL-producing ST131 E. coli versus non-ST131 E. coli were investigated. A case-control study was performed in two tertiary centres to identify risk factors for ST131. Molecular methods were used to investigate all E. coli isolates from blood cultures for those belonging to O25b:H4-ST131 clonal group. fimH alleles were characterised in ST131 isolates. Multivariate analysis was performed by logistic regression or Cox regression as appropriate. A total of 33 ST131 E. coli cases and 56 controls were studied. ST131 isolates showed higher rates of resistance to ampicillin and ciprofloxacin; fimH alleles were H30 in 14 isolates (42.4%) and H22 in 12 isolates (36.4%). Only recent surgery (OR = 7.03, 95% CI 1.71-28.84; P = 0.007) and unknown source of bacteraemia (OR = 5.37, 95% CI 0.93-30.81; P = 0.05) were associated with ST131. ST131 isolates showed no association with 30-day mortality, therapeutic failure, presentation with severe sepsis/shock or length of stay. Bacteraemia due to non-ESBL-producing O25b:H4-ST131 E. coli showed few differences in terms of risk factors as well as similar outcome to non-ST131 E. coli. These data support the notion that ST131 strains are not less clinically virulent despite showing increased antimicrobial resistance, but also that they are not more virulent than other clonal groups causing BSI. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. and International Society of Chemotherapy. All rights reserved.

Algorithm For Solution Of Subset-Regression Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verhaegen, Michel

1991-01-01

Reliable and flexible algorithm for solution of subset-regression problem performs QR decomposition with new column-pivoting strategy, enables selection of subset directly from originally defined regression parameters. This feature, in combination with number of extensions, makes algorithm very flexible for use in analysis of subset-regression problems in which parameters have physical meanings. Also extended to enable joint processing of columns contaminated by noise with those free of noise, without using scaling techniques.

Tumor gene expression and prognosis in breast cancer patients with 10 or more positive lymph nodes.

PubMed

Cobleigh, Melody A; Tabesh, Bita; Bitterman, Pincas; Baker, Joffre; Cronin, Maureen; Liu, Mei-Lan; Borchik, Russell; Mosquera, Juan-Miguel; Walker, Michael G; Shak, Steven

2005-12-15

This study, along with two others, was done to develop the 21-gene Recurrence Score assay (Oncotype DX) that was validated in a subsequent independent study and is used to aid decision making about chemotherapy in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, node-negative breast cancer patients. Patients with >or=10 nodes diagnosed from 1979 to 1999 were identified. RNA was extracted from paraffin blocks, and expression of 203 candidate genes was quantified using reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR). Seventy-eight patients were studied. As of August 2002, 77% of patients had distant recurrence or breast cancer death. Univariate Cox analysis of clinical and immunohistochemistry variables indicated that HER2/immunohistochemistry, number of involved nodes, progesterone receptor (PR)/immunohistochemistry (% cells), and ER/immunohistochemistry (% cells) were significantly associated with distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS). Univariate Cox analysis identified 22 genes associated with DRFS. Higher expression correlated with shorter DRFS for the HER2 adaptor GRB7 and the macrophage marker CD68. Higher expression correlated with longer DRFS for tumor protein p53-binding protein 2 (TP53BP2) and the ER axis genes PR and Bcl2. Multivariate methods, including stepwise variable selection and bootstrap resampling of the Cox proportional hazards regression model, identified several genes, including TP53BP2 and Bcl2, as significant predictors of DRFS. Tumor gene expression profiles of archival tissues, some more than 20 years old, provide significant information about risk of distant recurrence even among patients with 10 or more nodes.

Application of an Individual-Based Transmission Hazard Model for Estimation of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in a Household Cohort.

PubMed

Petrie, Joshua G; Eisenberg, Marisa C; Ng, Sophia; Malosh, Ryan E; Lee, Kyu Han; Ohmit, Suzanne E; Monto, Arnold S

2017-12-15

Household cohort studies are an important design for the study of respiratory virus transmission. Inferences from these studies can be improved through the use of mechanistic models to account for household structure and risk as an alternative to traditional regression models. We adapted a previously described individual-based transmission hazard (TH) model and assessed its utility for analyzing data from a household cohort maintained in part for study of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). Households with ≥4 individuals, including ≥2 children <18 years of age, were enrolled and followed during the 2010-2011 influenza season. VE was estimated in both TH and Cox proportional hazards (PH) models. For each individual, TH models estimated hazards of infection from the community and each infected household contact. Influenza A(H3N2) infection was laboratory-confirmed in 58 (4%) subjects. VE estimates from both models were similarly low overall (Cox PH: 20%, 95% confidence interval: -57, 59; TH: 27%, 95% credible interval: -23, 58) and highest for children <9 years of age (Cox PH: 40%, 95% confidence interval: -49, 76; TH: 52%, 95% credible interval: 7, 75). VE estimates were robust to model choice, although the ability of the TH model to accurately describe transmission of influenza presents continued opportunity for analyses. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Hypothesis Testing Using Factor Score Regression: A Comparison of Four Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Devlieger, Ines; Mayer, Axel; Rosseel, Yves

2016-01-01

In this article, an overview is given of four methods to perform factor score regression (FSR), namely regression FSR, Bartlett FSR, the bias avoiding method of Skrondal and Laake, and the bias correcting method of Croon. The bias correcting method is extended to include a reliable standard error. The four methods are compared with each other and…

Deriving Laws from Ordering Relations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knuth, Kevin H.

2004-01-01

The effect of Richard T. Cox's contribution to probability theory was to generalize Boolean implication among logical statements to degrees of implication, which are manipulated using rules derived from consistency with Boolean algebra. These rules are known as the sum rule, the product rule and Bayes Theorem, and the measure resulting from this generalization is probability. In this paper, I will describe how Cox s technique can be further generalized to include other algebras and hence other problems in science and mathematics. The result is a methodology that can be used to generalize an algebra to a calculus by relying on consistency with order theory to derive the laws of the calculus. My goals are to clear up the mysteries as to why the same basic structure found in probability theory appears in other contexts, to better understand the foundations of probability theory, and to extend these ideas to other areas by developing new mathematics and new physics. The relevance of this methodology will be demonstrated using examples from probability theory, number theory, geometry, information theory, and quantum mechanics.

A Simple Method for Deriving the Confidence Regions for the Penalized Cox's Model via the Minimand Perturbation.

PubMed

Lin, Chen-Yen; Halabi, Susan

2017-01-01

We propose a minimand perturbation method to derive the confidence regions for the regularized estimators for the Cox's proportional hazards model. Although the regularized estimation procedure produces a more stable point estimate, it remains challenging to provide an interval estimator or an analytic variance estimator for the associated point estimate. Based on the sandwich formula, the current variance estimator provides a simple approximation, but its finite sample performance is not entirely satisfactory. Besides, the sandwich formula can only provide variance estimates for the non-zero coefficients. In this article, we present a generic description for the perturbation method and then introduce a computation algorithm using the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that our method can better approximate the limiting distribution of the adaptive LASSO estimator and produces more accurate inference compared with the sandwich formula. The simulation results also indicate the possibility of extending the applications to the adaptive elastic-net penalty. We further demonstrate our method using data from a phase III clinical trial in prostate cancer.

Personalized dynamic prediction of death according to tumour progression and high-dimensional genetic factors: Meta-analysis with a joint model.

PubMed

Emura, Takeshi; Nakatochi, Masahiro; Matsui, Shigeyuki; Michimae, Hirofumi; Rondeau, Virginie

2017-01-01

Developing a personalized risk prediction model of death is fundamental for improving patient care and touches on the realm of personalized medicine. The increasing availability of genomic information and large-scale meta-analytic data sets for clinicians has motivated the extension of traditional survival prediction based on the Cox proportional hazards model. The aim of our paper is to develop a personalized risk prediction formula for death according to genetic factors and dynamic tumour progression status based on meta-analytic data. To this end, we extend the existing joint frailty-copula model to a model allowing for high-dimensional genetic factors. In addition, we propose a dynamic prediction formula to predict death given tumour progression events possibly occurring after treatment or surgery. For clinical use, we implement the computation software of the prediction formula in the joint.Cox R package. We also develop a tool to validate the performance of the prediction formula by assessing the prediction error. We illustrate the method with the meta-analysis of individual patient data on ovarian cancer patients.

REGULARIZATION FOR COX'S PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL WITH NP-DIMENSIONALITY.

PubMed

Bradic, Jelena; Fan, Jianqing; Jiang, Jiancheng

2011-01-01

High throughput genetic sequencing arrays with thousands of measurements per sample and a great amount of related censored clinical data have increased demanding need for better measurement specific model selection. In this paper we establish strong oracle properties of non-concave penalized methods for non-polynomial (NP) dimensional data with censoring in the framework of Cox's proportional hazards model. A class of folded-concave penalties are employed and both LASSO and SCAD are discussed specifically. We unveil the question under which dimensionality and correlation restrictions can an oracle estimator be constructed and grasped. It is demonstrated that non-concave penalties lead to significant reduction of the "irrepresentable condition" needed for LASSO model selection consistency. The large deviation result for martingales, bearing interests of its own, is developed for characterizing the strong oracle property. Moreover, the non-concave regularized estimator, is shown to achieve asymptotically the information bound of the oracle estimator. A coordinate-wise algorithm is developed for finding the grid of solution paths for penalized hazard regression problems, and its performance is evaluated on simulated and gene association study examples.

A method for analyzing clustered interval-censored data based on Cox's model.

PubMed

Kor, Chew-Teng; Cheng, Kuang-Fu; Chen, Yi-Hau

2013-02-28

Methods for analyzing interval-censored data are well established. Unfortunately, these methods are inappropriate for the studies with correlated data. In this paper, we focus on developing a method for analyzing clustered interval-censored data. Our method is based on Cox's proportional hazard model with piecewise-constant baseline hazard function. The correlation structure of the data can be modeled by using Clayton's copula or independence model with proper adjustment in the covariance estimation. We establish estimating equations for the regression parameters and baseline hazards (and a parameter in copula) simultaneously. Simulation results confirm that the point estimators follow a multivariate normal distribution, and our proposed variance estimations are reliable. In particular, we found that the approach with independence model worked well even when the true correlation model was derived from Clayton's copula. We applied our method to a family-based cohort study of pandemic H1N1 influenza in Taiwan during 2009-2010. Using the proposed method, we investigate the impact of vaccination and family contacts on the incidence of pH1N1 influenza. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of chemical immobilization on survival of African buffalo in the Kruger National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oosthuizen, W.C.; Cross, P.C.; Bowers, J.A.; Hay, C.; Ebinger, M.R.; Buss, P.; Hofmeyr, M.; Cameron, E.Z.

2009-01-01

Capturing, immobilizing, and fitting radiocollars are common practices in studies of large mammals, but success is based on the assumptions that captured animals are representative of the rest of the population and that the capture procedure has negligible effects. We estimated effects of chemical immobilization on mortality rates of African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. We used a Cox proportional hazards approach to test for differences in mortality among age, sex, and capture classes of repeatedly captured radiocollared buffalo. Capture variables did not improve model fit and the Cox regression did not indicate increased risk of death for captured individuals up to 90 days postcapture [exp (??) = 1.07]. Estimated confidence intervals, however, span from a halving to a doubling of the mortality rate (95% CI = 0.56-2.02). Therefore, capture did not influence survival of captured individuals using data on 875 captures over a 5-year period. Consequently, long-term research projects on African buffalo involving immobilization, such as associated with research on bovine tuberculosis, should result in minimal capture mortality, but monitoring of possible effects should continue.

Long QT syndrome in African-Americans.

PubMed

Fugate, Thomas; Moss, Arthur J; Jons, Christian; McNitt, Scott; Mullally, Jamie; Ouellet, Gregory; Goldenberg, Ilan; Zareba, Wojciech; Robinson, Jennifer L

2010-01-01

We evaluated the risk factors and clinical course of Long QT syndrome (LQTS) in African-American patients. The study involved 41 African-Americans and 3456 Caucasians with a QTc > or = 450 ms from the U.S. portion of the International LQTS Registry. Data included information about the medical history and clinical course of the LQTS patients with end points relating to the occurrence of syncope, aborted cardiac arrest, or LQTS-related sudden cardiac death from birth through age 40 years. The statistical analyses involved Kaplan-Meier time to event graphs and Cox regression models for multivariable risk factor evaluation. The QTc was 29 ms longer in African-Americans than Caucasians. Multivarite Cox analyses with adjustment for decade of birth revealed that the cardiac event rate was similar in African-Americans and Caucasians with LQTS and that beta-blockers were equally effective in reducing cardiac events in the two racial groups. The clinical course of LQTS in African-Americans is similar to that of Caucasians with comparable risk factors and benefit from beta-blocker therapy in the two racial groups.

Marriage is a dependent risk factor for mortality of colon adenocarcinoma without a time-varying effect

PubMed Central

Yu, Wei; Chen, Jie; Xiong, Weibin; Chen, Shuang; Yu, Li

2017-01-01

Background It has been well recognized that the effects of many prognostic factors could change during long-term follow-up. Although marriage has been proven to be a significant prognostic factor for the survival of colon cancer, whether the effect of marriage is constant with time remain unknown. This study analyzed the impact of marital status on the mortality of colon cancer patients with an extended Cox model that allowed for time-varying effects. Methods We identified 71,955 patients who underwent colectomy between 2004 and 2009 to treat colon adenocarcinoma from the Surveilance, Epidemiology and End Results Database. The multivariate extended Cox model was used to evaluate the effect of marital status on all-cause mortality, while the Fine-Gray competing risks model was used for colon cancer-specific mortality, with death from other causes as the competing risk. Results The unmarried patients carried a 1.37-fold increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with the married patients (95%CI: 1.33-1.40; p<0.001), and the hazard ratio remained constant over time. Being unmarried was at a higher risk of death from colon adenocarcinoma as well as death from other causes. Four variables including tumor site, tumor grade, sex and TNM stage were proved to have time-varying effects on survival. Conclusions Marriage is a dependent prognosis factor for survival of surgically treated colon adenocarcinoma patients. Psychological interventions are suggested to improve receipt of treatment among unmarried patients, as their poor survival may be due to the inefficient treatment. PMID:28423614

Marriage is a dependent risk factor for mortality of colon adenocarcinoma without a time-varying effect.

PubMed

Liu, Minling; Li, Lixian; Yu, Wei; Chen, Jie; Xiong, Weibin; Chen, Shuang; Yu, Li

2017-03-21

It has been well recognized that the effects of many prognostic factors could change during long-term follow-up. Although marriage has been proven to be a significant prognostic factor for the survival of colon cancer, whether the effect of marriage is constant with time remain unknown. This study analyzed the impact of marital status on the mortality of colon cancer patients with an extended Cox model that allowed for time-varying effects. We identified 71,955 patients who underwent colectomy between 2004 and 2009 to treat colon adenocarcinoma from the Surveilance, Epidemiology and End Results Database. The multivariate extended Cox model was used to evaluate the effect of marital status on all-cause mortality, while the Fine-Gray competing risks model was used for colon cancer-specific mortality, with death from other causes as the competing risk. The unmarried patients carried a 1.37-fold increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with the married patients (95%CI: 1.33-1.40; p<0.001), and the hazard ratio remained constant over time. Being unmarried was at a higher risk of death from colon adenocarcinoma as well as death from other causes. Four variables including tumor site, tumor grade, sex and TNM stage were proved to have time-varying effects on survival. Marriage is a dependent prognosis factor for survival of surgically treated colon adenocarcinoma patients. Psychological interventions are suggested to improve receipt of treatment among unmarried patients, as their poor survival may be due to the inefficient treatment.

African American Race is an Independent Risk Factor in Survival from Initially Diagnosed Localized Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Wieder, Robert; Shafiq, Basit; Adam, Nabil

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: African American race negatively impacts survival from localized breast cancer but co-variable factors confound the impact. METHODS: Data sets were analyzed from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) directories from 1973 to 2011 consisting of patients with designated diagnosis of breast adenocarcinoma, race as White or Caucasian, Black or African American, Asian, American Indian or Alaskan Native, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, age, stage I, II or III, grade 1, 2 or 3, estrogen receptor or progesterone receptor positive or negative, marital status as single, married, separated, divorced or widowed and laterality as right or left. The Cox Proportional Hazards Regression model was used to determine hazard ratios for survival. Chi square test was applied to determine the interdependence of variables found significant in the multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards Regression analysis. Cells with stratified data of patients with identical characteristics except African American or Caucasian race were compared. RESULTS: Age, stage, grade, ER and PR status and marital status significantly co-varied with race and with each other. Stratifications by single co-variables demonstrated worse hazard ratios for survival for African Americans. Stratification by three and four co-variables demonstrated worse hazard ratios for survival for African Americans in most subgroupings with sufficient numbers of values. Differences in some subgroupings containing poor prognostic co-variables did not reach significance, suggesting that race effects may be partly overcome by additional poor prognostic indicators. CONCLUSIONS: African American race is a poor prognostic indicator for survival from breast cancer independent of 6 associated co-variables with prognostic significance. PMID:27698895

Comparison of detection methods for HPV status as a prognostic marker for loco-regional control after radiochemotherapy in patients with HNSCC.

PubMed

Linge, Annett; Schötz, Ulrike; Löck, Steffen; Lohaus, Fabian; von Neubeck, Cläre; Gudziol, Volker; Nowak, Alexander; Tinhofer, Inge; Budach, Volker; Sak, Ali; Stuschke, Martin; Balermpas, Panagiotis; Rödel, Claus; Bunea, Hatice; Grosu, Anca-Ligia; Abdollahi, Amir; Debus, Jürgen; Ganswindt, Ute; Lauber, Kirsten; Pigorsch, Steffi; Combs, Stephanie E; Mönnich, David; Zips, Daniel; Baretton, Gustavo B; Buchholz, Frank; Krause, Mechthild; Belka, Claus; Baumann, Michael

2018-04-01

To compare six HPV detection methods in pre-treatment FFPE tumour samples from patients with locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) who received postoperative (N = 175) or primary (N = 90) radiochemotherapy. HPV analyses included detection of (i) HPV16 E6/E7 RNA, (ii) HPV16 DNA (PCR-based arrays, A-PCR), (iii) HPV DNA (GP5+/GP6+ qPCR, (GP-PCR)), (iv) p16 (immunohistochemistry, p16 IHC), (v) combining p16 IHC and the A-PCR result and (vi) combining p16 IHC and the GP-PCR result. Differences between HPV positive and negative subgroups were evaluated for the primary endpoint loco-regional control (LRC) using Cox regression. Correlation between the HPV detection methods was high (chi-squared test, p < 0.001). While p16 IHC analysis resulted in several false positive classifications, A-PCR, GP-PCR and the combination of p16 IHC and A-PCR or GP-PCR led to results comparable to RNA analysis. In both cohorts, Cox regression analyses revealed significantly prolonged LRC for patients with HPV positive tumours irrespective of the detection method. The most stringent classification was obtained by detection of HPV16 RNA, or combining p16 IHC with A-PCR or GP-PCR. This approach revealed the lowest rate of recurrence in patients with tumours classified as HPV positive and therefore appears most suited for patient stratification in HPV-based clinical studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association Between Physical Therapy and Risk of Coronary Artery Disease and Dyslipidemia Among Osteoarthritis Patients: A Nationwide Database Study.

PubMed

Yeh, Huan-Jui; Chou, Yiing-Jenq; Yang, Nan-Ping; Cheng, Chi-Chia; Huang, Nicole

2016-01-01

To provide empirical evidence on the effect of early physical therapy (PT) within the first year of osteoarthritis (OA) diagnosis on reduction in OA-related comorbidities in patients with OA. Retrospective cohort study. The study was conducted using a nationally representative sample of 1 million National Health Insurance enrollees. Newly diagnosed patients with OA (N=13,545). One-to-one propensity score matching was used to match patients who received PT within the first year of OA diagnosis (PT group; n=3403) with an equal number of patients with OA who did not receive PT (non-PT group). Not applicable. The 4-year cumulative risk of comorbidities including coronary artery disease (CAD), diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, osteoporosis, gastrointestinal tract ulcer, and renal failure was estimated. A Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to identify the dose-response relation between the PT dosage and the risk of OA-related comorbidities. A total of 3403 patients (25.1%) received PT within the first year of OA diagnosis. The PT group had a significantly lower 4-year cumulative risk of dyslipidemia (P=.05) and a potentially lower 4-year cumulative risk of CAD (P=.09). After adjusting for other potential confounders, the Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that patients with OA who received a high PT dosage had a low risk of CAD and dyslipidemia. Patients with OA who received PT had a lower risk of OA-related comorbidities such as dyslipidemia or CAD. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decreased levels of serum complement C3 and natural killer cells add to the predictive value of total immunoglobulin G for severe infection in heart transplant recipients.

PubMed

Sarmiento, E; del Pozo, N; Gallego, A; Fernández-Yañez, J; Palomo, J; Villa, A; Ruiz, M; Muñoz, P; Rodríguez, C; Rodríguez-Molina, J; Navarro, J; Kotsch, K; Fernandez-Cruz, E; Carbone, J

2012-10-01

Infection remains a source of mortality in heart recipients. We previously reported that post-transplant immunoglobulin G (IgG) quantification can help identify the risk for infection. We assessed whether other standardized parameters of humoral and cellular immunity could prove useful when identifying patients at risk of infection. We prospectively studied 133 heart recipients over a 12-month period. Forty-eight patients had at least one episode of severe infection. An event was defined as an infection requiring intravenous antimicrobial therapy. Cox regression analysis revealed an association between the risk of developing infection and the following: lower IgG2 subclass levels (day 7: relative hazard [RH] 1.71; day 30: RH 1.76), lower IgA levels (day 7: RH 1.61; day 30: RH 1.91), lower complement C3 values (day 7: RH 1.25), lower CD3 absolute counts (day 30: RH 1.10), lower absolute natural killer [NK] cell count (day 7: RH 1.24), and lower IgG concentrations (day 7: RH 1.31; day 30: RH 1.36). Cox regression bivariate analysis revealed that lower day 7 C3 levels, IgG2 concentration, and absolute NK cell count remained significant after adjustment for total IgG levels. Data suggest that early immune monitoring including C3, IgG2, and NK cell testing in addition to IgG concentrations is useful when attempting to identify the risk of infection in heart transplant recipients. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

AURKA mRNA expression is an independent predictor of poor prognosis in patients with non-small cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Al-Khafaji, Ahmed S K; Marcus, Michael W; Davies, Michael P A; Risk, Janet M; Shaw, Richard J; Field, John K; Liloglou, Triantafillos

2017-06-01

Deregulation of mitotic spindle genes has been reported to contribute to the development and progression of malignant tumours. The aim of the present study was to explore the association between the expression profiles of Aurora kinases ( AURKA , AURKB and AURKC ), cytoskeleton-associated protein 5 ( CKAP5 ), discs large-associated protein 5 ( DLGAP5 ), kinesin-like protein 11 ( KIF11 ), microtubule nucleation factor ( TPX2 ), monopolar spindle 1 kinase ( TTK ), and β-tubulins ( TUBB ) and ( TUBB3 ) genes and clinicopathological characteristics in human non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC). Reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction-based RNA gene expression profiles of 132 NSCLC and 44 adjacent wild-type tissues were generated, and Cox's proportional hazard regression was used to examine associations. With the exception of AURKC , all genes exhibited increased expression in NSCLC tissues. Of the 10 genes examined, only AURKA was significantly associated with prognosis in NSCLC. Multivariate Cox's regression analysis demonstrated that AURKA mRNA expression [hazard ratio (HR), 1.81; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.16-2.84; P=0.009], age (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.06; P=0.020), pathological tumour stage 2 (HR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.16-5.10; P=0.019) and involvement of distal nodes (pathological node stage 2) (HR, 3.14; 95% CI, 1.24-7.99; P=0.016) were independent predictors of poor prognosis in patients with NSCLC. Poor prognosis of patients with increased AURKA expression suggests that those patients may benefit from surrogate therapy with AURKA inhibitors.

Persistent disparities in obesity risk among public schoolchildren from childhood through adolescence.

PubMed

Chen, Danhong; Thomsen, Michael R; Nayga, Rodolfo M; Bennett, Judy L

2016-08-01

Arkansas is among the poorest states and has high rates of childhood obesity. In 2003, it became the first state to systematically screen public schoolchildren for unhealthy weight status. This study aims to examine the socioeconomic disparities in Body Mass Index (BMI) growth and the risk of the onset of obesity from childhood through adolescence. This study analyzed (in 2015) the data for a large cohort of Arkansas public schoolchildren for whom BMIs were measured from school years 2003/2004 through 2009/2010. A linear growth curve model was used to assess how child-level sociodemographics and neighborhood characteristics were associated with growth in BMI z-scores. Cox regression was subsequently used to investigate how these factors were associated with the onset of obesity. Because children might be classified as obese in multiple years, sensitivity analysis was conducted using recurrent event Cox regression. Survival analysis indicated that the risk of onset of obesity rose sharply between ages of 5 and 10 and then again after age 15. The socioeconomic disparities in obesity risk persisted from kindergarten through adolescence. While better access to full service restaurants was associated with lower risk of the onset of obesity (Hazard Ratio (HR)=0.98, 95% CI=0.97-0.99), proximity to fast food restaurants was related to increased risk of the onset of obesity (HR=1.01, 95% CI=1.00-1.01). This analysis stresses the need for policies to narrow the socioeconomic gradient and identifies important time periods for preventative interventions in childhood obesity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bisphosphonates and Bone Fractures in Long-term Kidney Transplant Recipients

PubMed Central

Conley, Emily; Muth, Brenda; Samaniego, Millie; Lotfi, Mary; Voss, Barbara; Armbrust, Mike; Pirsch, John; Djamali, Arjang

2013-01-01

Background There is little information on the role of bisphosphonates and bone mineral density (BMD) measurements for the follow-up and management of bone loss and fractures in long-term kidney transplant recipients. Methods To address this question, we retrospectively studied 554 patients who had two BMD measurements after the first year posttransplant and compared outcomes in patients treated, or not with bisphosphonates between the two BMD assessments. Kaplan-Meier survival and stepwise Cox regression analyses were performed to examine fracture-free survival rates and the risk-factors associated with fractures. Results The average time (±SE) between transplant and the first BMD was 1.2±0.05 years. The time interval between the two BMD measurements was 2.5±0.05 years. There were 239 and 315 patients in the no-bisphosphonate and bisphosphonate groups, respectively. Treatment was associated with significant preservation of bone loss at the femoral neck (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.21-2.06, P=0.0007). However, there was no association between bone loss at the femoral neck and fractures regardless of bisphosphonate therapy. Stepwise Cox regression analyses showed that type-1 diabetes, baseline femoral neck T-score, interleukin-2 receptor blockade, and proteinuria (HR 2.02, 0.69, 0.4, 1.23 respectively, P<0.01), but not bisphosphonates, were associated with the risk of fracture. Conclusions Bisphosphonates may prevent bone loss in long-term kidney transplant recipients. However, these data suggest a limited role for the initiation of therapy after the first posttransplant year to prevent fractures. PMID:18645484

Plasma big endothelin-1 levels at admission and future cardiovascular outcomes: A cohort study in patients with stable coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Zhou, Bing-Yang; Guo, Yuan-Lin; Wu, Na-Qiong; Zhu, Cheng-Gang; Gao, Ying; Qing, Ping; Li, Xiao-Lin; Wang, Yao; Dong, Qian; Liu, Geng; Xu, Rui Xia; Cui, Chuan-Jue; Sun, Jing; Li, Jian-Jun

2017-03-01

Big endothelin-1 (ET-1) has been proposed as a novel prognostic indicator of acute coronary syndrome, while its predicting role of cardiovascular outcomes in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) is unclear. A total of 3154 consecutive patients with stable CAD were enrolled and followed up for 24months. The outcomes included all-cause death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke and unplanned revascularization (percutaneous coronary intervention and coronary artery bypass grafting). Baseline big ET-1 was measured using sandwich enzyme immunoassay method. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis and Kaplan-Meier analysis were used to evaluate the prognostic value of big ET-1 on cardiovascular outcomes. One hundred and eighty-nine (5.99%) events occurred during follow-up. Patients were divided into two groups: events group (n=189) and non-events group (n=2965). The results indicated that the events group had higher levels of big ET-1 compared to non-events group. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis showed that big ET-1 was positively and statistically correlated with clinical outcomes (Hazard Ratio: 1.656, 95% confidence interval: 1.099-2.496, p=0.016). Additionally, the Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that patients with higher big ET-1 presented lower event-free survival (p=0.016). The present study firstly suggests that big ET-1 is an independent risk marker of cardiovascular outcomes in patients with stable CAD. And more studies are needed to confirm our findings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic Factors in Glioblastoma: Is There a Role for Epilepsy?

PubMed Central

DOBRAN, Mauro; NASI, Davide; CHIRIATTI, Stefano; GLADI, Maurizio; di SOMMA, Lucia; IACOANGELI, Maurizio; SCERRATI, Massimo

2018-01-01

The prognostic relevance of epilepsy at glioblastoma (GBMs) onset is still under debate. In this study, we analyzed the value of epilepsy and other prognostic factors on GBMs survival. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical, radiological, surgical and histological data in 139 GBMs. Seizures were the presenting symptoms in 50 patients out of 139 (35.9%). 123 patients (88%) were treated with craniotomy and tumor resection while 16 (12%) with biopsy. The median overall survival was 9.9 months from surgery. At univariable Cox regression, the factors that significantly improved survival were age less than 65 years (P = 0.0015), focal without impairment of consciousness seizures at presentation (P = 0.043), complete surgical resection (P < 0.001), pre-operative Karnofsky performance status (KPS) > 70 (P = 0.015), frontal location (P < 0.001), radiotherapy (XRT) plus concomitant and adjuvant TMZ (P < 0.001). A multivariable Cox regression showed that the complete surgical resection (P < 0.0001), age less than 65 years (P = 0.008), frontal location (P = 0.0001) and XRT adjuvant temozolomide (TMZ) (P < 0.0001) were independent factors on longer survival. In our series epilepsy at presentation is not an independent prognostic factor for longer survival in GBM patients. Only in the subgroup of patients with focal seizures without impairment of consciousness, epilepsy was associated with an increased significant overall survival at univariate analysis (P = 0.043). Main independent factors for relatively favorable GBMs outcome are complete tumor resection plus combined XRT-TMZ, frontal location and patient age below 65 years old. PMID:29343677

Repetition of attempted suicide among teenagers in Europe: frequency, timing and risk factors.

PubMed

Hultén, A; Jiang, G X; Wasserman, D; Hawton, K; Hjelmeland, H; De Leo, D; Ostamo, A; Salander-Renberg, E; Schmidtke, A

2001-09-01

Adolescents in many countries show high rates of suicide attempts and repetitions of attempts as a common feature. Attempted suicide is the best predictor of future suicide. Repetition of attempts further increases the risk of suicide. The present study sought to identify patterns and risk factors for repetition of attempts in older teenagers. Data were collected by uniform procedures in a longitudinal follow-up study in seven European centres participating in the WHO/EURO Multicentre Study on Suicidal Behaviour. Information on attempted suicide in the 15-19-year age group during the period 1989-1995 was analysed. A total of 1,720 attempts by 1,264 individuals over a mean follow-up period of 204 weeks (SD 108.9) were recorded. When life-table analysis was performed, 24% of the individuals who had previously attempted suicide made another attempt within one year after the index attempt, compared with 6.8% of the "first-evers", with no major gender difference. Cox regression analysis revealed that previous attempted suicide (OR 3.3, 95% CI 2.4-4.4) and use of "hard" methods (OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-2.1) were both significantly associated with repetition of attempted suicide. Stepwise Cox regression analysis showed that a history of previous attempted suicide was the most important independent predictor of repetition (OR 3.2, 95% CI 2.4-4.4). For young suicide attempters, follow-up and adequate aftercare are very important if repetition and risk of suicide are to be reduced. This applies particularly to those who have already made more than one attempt.

18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose PET/CT and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI as imaging biomarkers in malignant pleural mesothelioma.

PubMed

Hall, David O; Hooper, Clare E; Searle, Julie; Darby, Michael; White, Paul; Harvey, John E; Braybrooke, Jeremy P; Maskell, Nick A; Masani, Vidan; Lyburn, Iain D

2018-02-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the use of fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose (F-FDG) PET with computed tomography (CT) and dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI to predict prognosis and monitor treatment in malignant pleural mesothelioma. F-FDG PET/CT and DCE-MRI studies carried out as part of the South West Area Mesothelioma Pemetrexed trial were used. F-FDG PET/CT and DCE-MRI studies were carried out before treatment, and after two cycles of chemotherapy, on patients treated with pemetrexed and cisplatin. A total of 73 patients were recruited, of whom 65 had PET/CT and DCE-MRI scans. Baseline measurements from F-FDG PET/CT (maximum standardized uptake value, metabolic tumour volume and total lesion glycolysis) and DCE-MRI (integrated area under the first 90s of the curve and washout slope) were compared with overall survival (OS) using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses, and changes in imaging measurements were compared with disease progression. PET/CT and DCE-MRI measurements were not correlated with each other. Maximum standardized uptake value, metabolic tumour volume and total lesion glycolysis were significantly related to OS with Cox regression analysis and Kaplan-Meir analysis, and DCE-MRI washout curve shape was significantly related to OS. DCE-MRI curve shape can be combined with F-FDG PET/CT to give additional prognostic information. Changes in measurements were not related to progression-free survival. F-FDG PET/CT and DCE-MRI give prognostic information in malignant pleural mesothelioma. Neither PET/CT nor DCE-MRI is useful for monitoring disease progression.

Soluble form of receptor for advanced glycation end products and incidence of new cardiovascular events among patients with cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Reichert, Stefan; Triebert, Ulrike; Santos, Alexander Navarrete; Hofmann, Britt; Schaller, Hans-Günter; Schlitt, Axel; Schulz, Susanne

2017-11-01

Soluble RAGE (sRAGE) serum level could be a biomarker for atherosclerosis and subsequent diseases such as cardiovascular disease (CVD). Therefore, we wanted to investigate whether peripheral sRAGE level is associated with new cardiovascular events among patients with CVD using the Cox's regression analysis. In this three-year longitudinal cohort study, 1002 in-patients with angiographically proven CVD were included. In 933 patients, sRAGE levels were determined by a commercial available ELISA kit at the time of baseline examination. The combined endpoint was defined as myocardial infarction, stroke/TIA (non-fatal, fatal), and cardiovascular death. For risk analysis, sRAGE values were distributed in quartiles. For generation of adjusted hazard ratios (HR), other risk factors for CVD, such as age, gender, current smoking, body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipoproteinemia, family history of CVD, severe periodontitis, serum levels for C-reactive protein and interleukin-6, were recorded. 886 patients completed the 3-year follow-up. The overall incidence of the combined endpoint was 16%. Patients with sRAGE levels >838.19 pg/ml (fourth quartile) had the highest incidence of recurrent CVD events (24.9% versus 13.1%, p < 0.0001). In multivariate Cox regression with respect to further confounders for CVD, the association between sRAGE and new CVD events was confirmed (HR = 1.616, 95% CI 1.027-2.544, p = 0.038). Elevated sRAGE serum level is associated with further adverse events in patients with CVD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decision tree analysis to stratify risk of de novo non-melanoma skin cancer following liver transplantation.

PubMed

Tanaka, Tomohiro; Voigt, Michael D

2018-03-01

Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is the most common de novo malignancy in liver transplant (LT) recipients; it behaves more aggressively and it increases mortality. We used decision tree analysis to develop a tool to stratify and quantify risk of NMSC in LT recipients. We performed Cox regression analysis to identify which predictive variables to enter into the decision tree analysis. Data were from the Organ Procurement Transplant Network (OPTN) STAR files of September 2016 (n = 102984). NMSC developed in 4556 of the 105984 recipients, a mean of 5.6 years after transplant. The 5/10/20-year rates of NMSC were 2.9/6.3/13.5%, respectively. Cox regression identified male gender, Caucasian race, age, body mass index (BMI) at LT, and sirolimus use as key predictive or protective factors for NMSC. These factors were entered into a decision tree analysis. The final tree stratified non-Caucasians as low risk (0.8%), and Caucasian males > 47 years, BMI < 40 who did not receive sirolimus, as high risk (7.3% cumulative incidence of NMSC). The predictions in the derivation set were almost identical to those in the validation set (r 2  = 0.971, p < 0.0001). Cumulative incidence of NMSC in low, moderate and high risk groups at 5/10/20 year was 0.5/1.2/3.3, 2.1/4.8/11.7 and 5.6/11.6/23.1% (p < 0.0001). The decision tree model accurately stratifies the risk of developing NMSC in the long-term after LT.

Gene-Expression Signature Predicts Postoperative Recurrence in Stage I Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients

PubMed Central

Lu, Yan; Wang, Liang; Liu, Pengyuan; Yang, Ping; You, Ming

2012-01-01

About 30% stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients undergoing resection will recur. Robust prognostic markers are required to better manage therapy options. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a novel gene-expression signature that can predict tumor recurrence of stage I NSCLC patients. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to identify recurrence-related genes and a partial Cox regression model was used to generate a gene signature of recurrence in the training dataset −142 stage I lung adenocarcinomas without adjunctive therapy from the Director's Challenge Consortium. Four independent validation datasets, including GSE5843, GSE8894, and two other datasets provided by Mayo Clinic and Washington University, were used to assess the prediction accuracy by calculating the correlation between risk score estimated from gene expression and real recurrence-free survival time and AUC of time-dependent ROC analysis. Pathway-based survival analyses were also performed. 104 probesets correlated with recurrence in the training dataset. They are enriched in cell adhesion, apoptosis and regulation of cell proliferation. A 51-gene expression signature was identified to distinguish patients likely to develop tumor recurrence (Dxy = −0.83, P<1e-16) and this signature was validated in four independent datasets with AUC >85%. Multiple pathways including leukocyte transendothelial migration and cell adhesion were highly correlated with recurrence-free survival. The gene signature is highly predictive of recurrence in stage I NSCLC patients, which has important prognostic and therapeutic implications for the future management of these patients. PMID:22292069

Advantage of the modified Lunn-McNeil technique over Kalbfleisch-Prentice technique in competing risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukman, Iing; Ibrahim, Noor A.; Daud, Isa B.; Maarof, Fauziah; Hassan, Mohd N.

2002-03-01

Survival analysis algorithm is often applied in the data mining process. Cox regression is one of the survival analysis tools that has been used in many areas, and it can be used to analyze the failure times of aircraft crashed. Another survival analysis tool is the competing risks where we have more than one cause of failure acting simultaneously. Lunn-McNeil analyzed the competing risks in the survival model using Cox regression with censored data. The modified Lunn-McNeil technique is a simplify of the Lunn-McNeil technique. The Kalbfleisch-Prentice technique is involving fitting models separately from each type of failure, treating other failure types as censored. To compare the two techniques, (the modified Lunn-McNeil and Kalbfleisch-Prentice) a simulation study was performed. Samples with various sizes and censoring percentages were generated and fitted using both techniques. The study was conducted by comparing the inference of models, using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the power tests, and the Schoenfeld residual analysis. The power tests in this study were likelihood ratio test, Rao-score test, and Wald statistics. The Schoenfeld residual analysis was conducted to check the proportionality of the model through its covariates. The estimated parameters were computed for the cause-specific hazard situation. Results showed that the modified Lunn-McNeil technique was better than the Kalbfleisch-Prentice technique based on the RMSE measurement and Schoenfeld residual analysis. However, the Kalbfleisch-Prentice technique was better than the modified Lunn-McNeil technique based on power tests measurement.

Endothelial dysfunction in patients with chronic heart failure is independently associated with increased incidence of hospitalization, cardiac transplantation, or death.

PubMed

Fischer, D; Rossa, S; Landmesser, U; Spiekermann, S; Engberding, N; Hornig, B; Drexler, H

2005-01-01

Endothelial dysfunction of coronary and peripheral arteries has been demonstrated in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) and appears to be associated with functional implications. However, it is unknown whether endothelial dysfunction in CHF is independently associated with impaired outcome or progression of the disease. We assessed the follow-up of 67 consecutive patients with CHF [New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class II-III] in which flow-dependent, endothelium-mediated vasodilation (FDD) of the radial artery was assessed by high resolution ultrasound. The primary endpoint was defined by cardiac death, hospitalization due to worsening of heart failure (NYHA class IV, pulmonary oedema), or heart transplantation. Cox regression analysis was used to determine whether FDD was associated with these heart failure-related events. During a median follow-up of 45.7 months 24 patients had an event: 18 patients were hospitalized due to worsening of heart failure or heart transplantation, six patients died for cardiac reasons. Cox regression analysis demonstrated that FDD (P<0.01), diabetes mellitus (P<0.01), and ejection fraction (P<0.01) were independent predictive factors for the occurrence of the primary endpoint. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve revealed a significantly better clinical outcome in patients with FDD above the median (6.2%) compared with those with FDD below the median (P<0.013). These observations suggest that endothelium-mediated vasodilation represents an independent predictor of cardiac death and hospitalization in patients with CHF, consistent with the notion that endothelium-derived nitric oxide may play a protective role in heart failure.

Factors Affecting the Selection of Patients on Waiting List: A Single Center Study.

PubMed

Can, Ö; Kasapoğlu, U; Boynueğri, B; Tuğcu, M; Çağlar Ruhi, B; Canbakan, M; Murat Gökçe, A; Ata, P; İzzet Titiz, M; Apaydın, S

2015-06-01

There is an increasing gap between organ supply and demand for cadaveric transplantation in our country. Our aim was to evaluate factors affecting selection of patients on waiting list at our hospital. Patients who have been waiting on list and who were transplanted were compared in order to find factors, which affected the selection of patients. Non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison and cox regression analysis was used to find the risk factors that decrease the probability of transplantation in this retrospective case-control study. Patients in the transplanted group were significantly younger, had relatively lower body mass index than the awaiting group. Cardiovascular diseases were more in the awaiting group than the transplanted group. There was no patient with diabetes in transplanted group, despite fifteen diabetic patients were in the awaiting group. Selected patients had lower immunologic risk with regard to peak panel reactive antibody levels. No significant difference was found for gender, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, viral serology, time spent on dialysis and on waiting list between two groups. With cox regression analysis female gender, older age, diabetes mellitus, high body mass index, positive hepatitis B serology and high levels of peak class 1-2 peak panel reactive antibody positivity were found as risk factors that decrease the probability of transplantation. A tendency for selection of low risk patients was found with this study. Time and energy consuming complications and short allograft survival after transplantation in high risk patients and the scarcity of cadaveric pool in our country may contribute to this tendency. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lack of Thy1 (CD90) expression in neuroblastomas is correlated with impaired survival.

PubMed

Fiegel, Henning C; Kaifi, Jussuf T; Quaas, Alexander; Varol, Emine; Krickhahn, Annika; Metzger, Roman; Sauter, Guido; Till, Holger; Izbicki, Jakob R; Erttmann, Rudolf; Kluth, Dietrich

2008-01-01

Neuroblastoma (NBL) is the most common solid tumor in children. Tumors in advanced stage or with positive risk factors still have a poor prognosis. Thy1 (CD90) is a membrane glycoprotein expressed in thymus, retinal ganglionic cells, and several types of stem cells. The aim of this study was to assess Thy1 expression in NBL and analyze the correlation with clinical outcome. Sixty-three specimens of NBL were stained for Thy1 on a tissue microarray by immunohistochemistry. Fresh frozen tumor tissues were used for RNA isolation, and RT-PCR analysis for Thy1-mRNA expression was performed. Patients' survival data were correlated with Thy1 status using a log rank test and a Cox regression multivariate analysis. Thy1 was expressed on 51 (81%) of the tumors. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed a significantly impaired survival in patients with NBL missing Thy1 (P < 0.005 by log-rank test). A multivariate Cox regression showed an independent prognostic value of Thy1 status for overall survival (P < 0.05). In addition, the frequency of events and deaths was significantly higher in the group of patients with Thy1 negative tumors, as assessed by ANOVA analysis (P < 0.05 by F-test). The data showed that Thy1-negative NBL patients have a significantly impaired overall survival compared with Thy1-positive NBL patients. Thus, Thy1 seemed to be a marker with a specific prognostic value in NBL patients. Future studies are aiming at the biological role of this marker in the tumor cell differentiation.

External Validation of the HERNIAscore: An Observational Study.

PubMed

Cherla, Deepa V; Moses, Maya L; Mueck, Krislynn M; Hannon, Craig; Ko, Tien C; Kao, Lillian S; Liang, Mike K

2017-09-01

The HERNIAscore is a ventral incisional hernia (VIH) risk assessment tool that uses only preoperative variables and predictable intraoperative variables. The aim of this study was to validate and modify, if needed, the HERNIAscore in an external dataset. This was a retrospective observational study of all patients undergoing resection for gastrointestinal malignancy from 2011 through 2015 at a safety-net hospital. The primary end point was clinical postoperative VIH. Patients were stratified into low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups based on HERNIAscore. A revised HERNIAscore was calculated with the addition of earlier abdominal operation as a categorical variable. Cox regression of incisional hernia with stratification by risk class was performed. Incidence rates of clinical VIH formation within each risk class were also calculated. Two hundred and forty-seven patents were enrolled. On Cox regression, in addition to the 3 variables of the HERNIAscore (BMI, COPD, and incision length), earlier abdominal operation was also predictive of VIH. The revised HERNIAscore demonstrated improved predictive accuracy for clinical VIH. Although the original HERNIAscore effectively stratified the risk of an incisional radiographic VIH developing, the revised HERNIAscore provided a statistically significant stratification for both clinical and radiographic VIHs in this patient cohort. We have externally validated and improved the HERNIAscore. The revised HERNIAscore uses BMI, incision length, COPD, and earlier abdominal operation to predict risk of postoperative incisional hernia. Future research should assess methods to prevent incisional hernias in moderate-to-high risk patients. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gout in African Americans.

PubMed

Krishnan, Eswar

2014-09-01

African Americans have a substantially higher prevalence of risk factors for gout than Caucasians. The aim of the present study was to compare the risk for incident gout among African Americans and Caucasians. Incidence rates of physician-diagnosed gout among 11,559 Caucasian men and 931 African American men aged 35 to 57 years and at high cardiovascular risk, observed for 7 years as a part of the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial, were analyzed. Cox regression models were used to account for potential confounding by age, body mass index, diuretic use, hypertension and diabetes status, aspirin and alcohol consumption, and kidney disease. At baseline, after accounting for risk factors, African Americans had a 14% lower prevalence of hyperuricemia than Caucasians. Incidence of gout increased with increasing prevalence of risk factors in both Caucasians and African Americans. Ethnic disparities in incidence rates were most apparent among those without other risk factors for gout. In separate Cox regression models, after accounting for risk factors, African American ethnicity was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66-0.93) for physician-diagnosed gout and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.85-0.90) for incident hyperuricemia. Significant interactions were observed; the association was the strongest (hazard ratio 0.47; 0.37-0.60). These associations were unaffected by addition of serum urate as a covariate or by using alternate case definitions for gout. After accounting for the higher prevalence of risk factors, African American ethnicity is associated with a significantly lower risk for gout and hyperuricemia compared with Caucasian ethnicity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Prognostic Value of Epithelial Membrane Protein 1 (EMP-1) in Patients with Laryngeal Carcinoma

PubMed Central

Liu, Chang; Wei, Xiaojun; Li, Feng; Wang, Li; Ruan, Xinjian; Jia, Jia; Zhang, Xia

2017-01-01

Background In the present study, we aimed to investigate the prognostic value of epithelial membrane protein 1 (EMP-1) gene in patients diagnosed with laryngeal carcinoma (LC). Material/Methods Patients who were pathologically diagnosed with LC were enrolled in the present study. The expression levels of EMP-1 in tumor tissues and corresponding normal tissues collected from the LC patients were detected by semi-reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (semi-RT-PCR). Chi-square analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between EMP-1 expression level and clinical characteristics. Survival analysis for the study population was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier method with log rank test. Additionally, Cox regression model was applied to evaluate the prognostic value of EMP-1 in LC patients. Results 106 LC patients, including 55 men and 51 women, were enrolled in the present study. Semi-RT-PCR demonstrated that the expression level of EMP-1 was decreased in tumor tissues, compared with adjacent normal tissues (p<0.001). Moreover, the level was significantly associated with lymph node metastasis, histological grade, and clinical stage (p<0.05 for all). In addition, low levels of EMP-1 was significantly correlated with poor survival rate (log rank test, p=0.020). Cox regression analysis indicated that EMP-1 was an independent marker for LC prognosis (HR=2.755, 95% CI=1.123–6.760, p=0.027). Conclusions The abnormal expression of EMP-1 may be associated with progression of LC and the gene may act as a prognostic marker for LC. PMID:28779068

The Prognostic Value of Epithelial Membrane Protein 1 (EMP-1) in Patients with Laryngeal Carcinoma.

PubMed

Liu, Chang; Wei, Xiaojun; Li, Feng; Wang, Li; Ruan, Xinjian; Jia, Jia; Zhang, Xia

2017-08-05

BACKGROUND In the present study, we aimed to investigate the prognostic value of epithelial membrane protein 1 (EMP-1) gene in patients diagnosed with laryngeal carcinoma (LC). MATERIAL AND METHODS Patients who were pathologically diagnosed with LC were enrolled in the present study. The expression levels of EMP-1 in tumor tissues and corresponding normal tissues collected from the LC patients were detected by semi-reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (semi-RT-PCR). Chi-square analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between EMP-1 expression level and clinical characteristics. Survival analysis for the study population was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier method with log rank test. Additionally, Cox regression model was applied to evaluate the prognostic value of EMP-1 in LC patients. RESULTS 106 LC patients, including 55 men and 51 women, were enrolled in the present study. Semi-RT-PCR demonstrated that the expression level of EMP-1 was decreased in tumor tissues, compared with adjacent normal tissues (p<0.001). Moreover, the level was significantly associated with lymph node metastasis, histological grade, and clinical stage (p<0.05 for all). In addition, low levels of EMP-1 was significantly correlated with poor survival rate (log rank test, p=0.020). Cox regression analysis indicated that EMP-1 was an independent marker for LC prognosis (HR=2.755, 95% CI=1.123-6.760, p=0.027). CONCLUSIONS The abnormal expression of EMP-1 may be associated with progression of LC and the gene may act as a prognostic marker for LC.

Prognostic Factors in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Moura, Mirian Conceicao; Novaes, Maria Rita Carvalho Garbi; Eduardo, Emanoel Junio; Zago, Yuri S. S. P.; Freitas, Ricardo Del Negro Barroso; Casulari, Luiz Augusto

2015-01-01

Objective To determine the prognostic factors associated with survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis at diagnosis. Methods This retrospective population-based study evaluated 218 patients treated with riluzole between 2005 and 2014 and described their clinical and demographic profiles after the analysis of clinical data and records from the mortality information system in the Federal District, Brazil. Cox multivariate regression analysis was conducted for the parameters found. Results The study sample consisted of 132 men and 86 women with a mean age at disease onset of 57.2±12.3 years; 77.6% of them were Caucasian. The mean periods between disease onset and diagnosis were 22.7 months among men and 23.5 months among women, and the mean survival periods were 45.7±47.0 months among men and 39.3±29.8 months among women. In addition, 80.3% patients presented non-bulbar-onset amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, and 19.7% presented bulbar-onset. Cox regression analysis indicated worse prognosis for body mass index (BMI) <25 kg/m2 (relative risk [RR]: 3.56, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.44–8.86), age >75 years (RR: 12.47, 95% CI: 3.51–44.26), and bulbar-onset (RR: 4.56, 95% CI: 2.06–10.12). Electromyography did not confirm the diagnosis in 55.6% of the suspected cases and in 27.9% of the bulbar-onset cases. Conclusions The factors associated with lower survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis were age >75 years, BMI <25 kg/m2, and bulbar-onset. PMID:26517122

Dietary sodium to potassium ratio and the incidence of hypertension and cardiovascular disease: A population-based longitudinal study.

PubMed

Mirmiran, Parvin; Bahadoran, Zahra; Nazeri, Pantea; Azizi, Fereidoun

2018-01-30

There is an interaction between dietary sodium/potassium intake in the pathogenesis of hypertension (HTN) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The aim of this study was to investigate the association of dietary sodium to potassium (Na/K) ratio and the risk of HTN and CVD in a general population of Iranian adults. In this prospective cohort study, adults men and women with complete baseline data were selected from among participants of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study and were followed up for 6.3 years for incidence of HTN and CVD outcomes. Dietary sodium and potassium were assessed using a valid and reliable 168-item food frequency questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between dietary sodium, potassium and their ratio and risk of outcomes. During the study follow-up, 291 (15.1%) and 79 (5.0%) new cases of HTN and CVD were identified, respectively. No significant association was observed between usual intakes of sodium, potassium and dietary Na/K ratio with the incidence of HTN. There was no significant association between dietary intakes of sodium and potassium per se and the risk of CVD, whereas when dietary sodium to potassium ratio was considered as exposure in the fully-adjusted Cox regression model, and participants in the highest compared to lowest tertile had a significantly increased risk of CVD (HR = 2.19, 95% CI = 1.16-4.14). Our findings suggest that high dietary Na/K ratio could contribute to increased risk of CVD events.

Marijuana use and risk of lung cancer: a 40-year cohort study.

PubMed

Callaghan, Russell C; Allebeck, Peter; Sidorchuk, Anna

2013-10-01

Cannabis (marijuana) smoke and tobacco smoke contain many of the same potent carcinogens, but a critical-yet unresolved-medical and public-health issue is whether cannabis smoking might facilitate the development of lung cancer. The current study aimed to assess the risk of lung cancer among young marijuana users. A population-based cohort study examined men (n = 49,321) aged 18-20 years old assessed for cannabis use and other relevant variables during military conscription in Sweden in 1969-1970. Participants were tracked until 2009 for incident lung cancer outcomes in nationwide linked medical registries. Cox regression modeling assessed relationships between cannabis smoking, measured at conscription, and the hazard of subsequently receiving a lung cancer diagnosis. At the baseline conscription assessment, 10.5 % (n = 5,156) reported lifetime use of marijuana and 1.7 % (n = 831) indicated lifetime use of more than 50 times, designated as "heavy" use. Cox regression analyses (n = 44,284) found that such "heavy" cannabis smoking was significantly associated with more than a twofold risk (hazard ratio 2.12, 95 % CI 1.08-4.14) of developing lung cancer over the 40-year follow-up period, even after statistical adjustment for baseline tobacco use, alcohol use, respiratory conditions, and socioeconomic status. Our primary finding provides initial longitudinal evidence that cannabis use might elevate the risk of lung cancer. In light of the widespread use of marijuana, especially among adolescents and young adults, our study provides important data for informing the risk-benefit calculus of marijuana smoking in medical, public-health, and drug-policy settings.

No evidence of a causal relationship between hypothyroidism and glaucoma: A Danish nationwide register-based cohort study.

PubMed

Thvilum, Marianne; Brandt, Frans; Brix, Thomas Heiberg; Hegedüs, Laszlo

2018-01-01

An interrelationship between hypothyroidism and glaucoma, due to a shared autoimmune background or based on deposition of mucopolysaccharides in the trabecular meshwork in the eye, has been suggested but is at present unsubstantiated. Therefore, our objective was to investigate, at a nationwide and population-based level, whether there is such an association. Observational cohort study using record-linkage data from nationwide Danish health registers. 121,799 individuals diagnosed with a first episode of hypothyroidism were identified and were matched with 4 non-hypothyroid controls according to age and sex. Prevalence of glaucoma was recorded and cases and controls were followed over a mean of 7.1 years (range 0-17). Logistic and Cox regression models were used to assess the risk of glaucoma before and after the diagnosis of hypothyroidism, respectively. Overall, we found a higher prevalence of glaucoma in subjects with hypothyroidism as compared to controls (4.6% vs. 4.3%, p < 0.001). Prior to the diagnosis of hypothyroidism, the odds ratio (OR) was significantly increased for glaucoma [1.09; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-1.13]. Based on the Cox regression model, there was no increased risk of glaucoma after the diagnosis of hypothyroidism [hazard ratio (HR) 1.00; 95% CI: 0.96-1.06], and the HR decreased further after adjusting for pre-existing co-morbidity (0.88; 95% CI: 0.84-0.93). There was an increased risk of glaucoma before but not after the diagnosis of hypothyroidism, suggesting that screening for glaucoma in hypothyroid individuals is unwarranted.

Clinical outcome and predictors of survival in patients with pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia--results of a tertiary referral centre.

PubMed

Roembke, Felicitas; Heinzow, Hauke Sebastian; Gosseling, Thomas; Heinecke, Achim; Domagk, Dirk; Domschke, Wolfram; Meister, Tobias

2014-01-01

Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia also known as pneumocystis pneumonia (PCP) is an opportunistic respiratory infection in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) patients that may also develop in non-HIV immunocompromised persons. The aim of our study was to evaluate mortality predictors of PCP patients in a tertiary referral centre. Fifty-one patients with symptomatic PCP were enrolled in the study. The patients had either HIV infection (n = 21) or other immunosuppressive conditions (n = 30). Baseline characteristics (e.g. age, sex and underlying disease) were retrieved. Kaplan-Meier analysis was employed to calculate survival. Comparisons were made by log-rank test. A multivariate analysis of factors influencing survival was carried out using the Cox regression model. Chi-squared test and Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test was applied as appropriate. The median survival time for the HIV group was >120 months compared with 3 months for the non-HIV group (P = 0.009). Three-month survival probability was also significantly greater in the HIV group compared with the non-HIV group (90% vs 41%, P = 0.002). In univariate log-rank test, intensive care unit (ICU) necessity, HIV negativity, age >50 years, haemoglobin <10g/dl, C-reactive protein >5 mg/dL and multiple comorbidities were significant negative predictors of survival. In the Cox regression model, ICU and HIV statuses turned out to be independent prognostic factors of survival. PCP is a serious problem in non-HIV immunocompromised patients in whom survival outcomes are worse than those in HIV patients. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

ESC guidelines adherence is associated with improved survival in patients from the Norwegian Heart Failure Registry.

PubMed

De Blois, Jonathan; Fagerland, Morten Wang; Grundtvig, Morten; Semb, Anne Grete; Gullestad, Lars; Westheim, Arne; Hole, Torstein; Atar, Dan; Agewall, Stefan

2015-01-01

To assess the adherence to heart failure (HF) guidelines for angiotensin-converting enzyme-I (ACE-I), angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB), and β-blockers and the possible association of ACE-I or ARB, β-blockers, and statins with survival in the large contemporary Norwegian Heart Failure Registry. The study included 5761 outpatients who were diagnosed with HF of any aetiology (mean left ventricular ejection fraction 32% ± 11%) from January 2000 to January 2010 and followed up until death or February 2010. Adherence to treatment according to the guidelines was high. Cox regression analysis to identify risk factors for all-cause mortality, after adjustment for many factors, showed that ACE-I ≥ 50% of target dose, use of beta-blockers, and statins were significantly related to improved survival (P = 0.003, P < 0.001, and P < 0.001, respectively). Propensity scoring showed the same benefit for these variables. Both multivariable and propensity scoring analyses showed survival benefits with β-blockers, statins, and adequate doses of ACE-I in this contemporary HF cohort. This study stresses the importance of guidelines adherence, even in the context of high levels of adherence to guidelines. Moreover, respecting the recommended target doses of ACE-I appears to have a crucial role in survival improvement and, in the multivariate Cox regression analysis, ARB treatment was not significantly associated with a lower all-cause mortality. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. ©The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Population-based cohort study investigating the correlation of diabetes mellitus with pleural empyema in adults in Taiwan.

PubMed

Lai, Shih-Wei; Lin, Cheng-Li; Liao, Kuan-Fu

2017-09-01

We assessed the association between diabetes mellitus and the risk of pleural empyema in Taiwan.A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using the database of the Taiwan National Health Insurance Program. There were 28,802 subjects aged 20 to 84 years who were newly diagnosed with diabetes mellitus from 2000 to 2010 as the diabetes group and 114,916 randomly selected subjects without diabetes mellitus as the non-diabetes group. The diabetes group and the non-diabetes group were matched by sex, age, comorbidities, and the year of index date. The incidence of pleural empyema at the end of 2011 was estimated. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for pleural empyema associated with diabetes mellitus.The overall incidence of pleural empyema was 1.65-fold higher in the diabetes group than that in the non-diabetes group (1.58 vs 0.96 per 10,000 person-years, 95% CI 1.57-1.72). After adjusting for confounders, a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model revealed that the adjusted HR of pleural empyema was 1.71 in subjects with diabetes mellitus (95% CI 1.16-2.51), compared with those without diabetes mellitus. In further analysis, even in the absence of any comorbidity, the adjusted HR was 1.99 for subjects with diabetes mellitus alone (95% CI 1.18-3.38).Diabetic patients confer a 1.71-fold increased hazard of developing pleural empyema. Even in the absence of any comorbidity, the risk remains existent.

[Survival following the first admission in an integrated dual disorders treatment ward (IDDTW): preliminary results from a cohort study].

PubMed

Gimelfarb, Yuri; Becatel, Ety; Wolf, Aviva; Baruch, Yehuda

2014-01-01

Dual disorders (co-occurring severe mental illness [SMI] and substance abuse disorders in the same person) are extremely common among patients receiving mental health services. Dual disorders are associated with increased all-cause mortality, as compared with patients with SMI. Scientific evidence is lacking on the survival of dual disorders subjects, who had psychiatric inpatient care. To determine the long term survival rates of patients after the first admission in an IDDTW and to identify their baseline predictors. The charts of 258 subjects admitted to IDDTW during the period 2002-2004 were assessed at least 8 years after the first admission. Psychiatric diagnoses were established and grouped according to the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th edition (ICD-10). The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to estimate the cumulative survival rates, and the predictive values of different variables were assessed by Cox proportional-hazards regression model. The cumulative 1-, 2-, 4-, 6- and 8-year survival rates of all subjects were 98.06%, 96.51%, 91.47, 86.43% and 81.78%, respectively, without statistically significant differences between subgroups of psychiatric diagnoses. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that the age at death was the only independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = .96; 95% confidence interval .93 to .99; p < .009). Those of young age are at a particularly low risk of long term survival. More targeted health care is required to address the specific needs of this vulnerable subgroup. Further research of survival into specific risk groups is required.

Evaluation of clinical and histopathologic prognostic factors for survival in canine osteosarcoma of the extracranial flat and irregular bones.

PubMed

Kruse, M A; Holmes, E S; Balko, J A; Fernandez, S; Brown, D C; Goldschmidt, M H

2013-07-01

Osteosarcoma is the most common bone tumor in dogs. However, current literature focuses primarily on appendicular osteosarcoma. This study examined the prognostic value of histological and clinical factors in flat and irregular bone osteosarcomas and hypothesized that clinical factors would have a significant association with survival time while histological factors would not. All osteosarcoma biopsy samples of the vertebra, rib, sternum, scapula, or pelvis were reviewed while survival information and clinical data were obtained from medical records, veterinarians, and owners. Forty-six dogs were included in the analysis of histopathological variables and 27 dogs with complete clinical data were included in the analysis of clinical variables. In the histopathologic cox regression model, there was no significant association between any histologic feature of osteosarcoma, including grade, and survival time. In the clinical cox regression model, there was a significant association between the location of the tumor and survival time as well as between the percent elevation of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) above normal and survival time. Controlling for ALP elevation, dogs with osteosarcoma located in the scapula had a significantly greater hazard for death (2.8) compared to dogs with tumors in other locations. Controlling for tumor location, every 100% increase in ALP from normal increased the hazard for death by 1.7. For canine osteosarcomas of the flat and irregular bones, histopathological features, including grade do not appear to be rigorous predictors of survival. Clinical variables such as increased ALP levels and tumor location in the scapula were associated with decreased survival times.

Comparison of the Risk of Gastrointestinal Bleeding among Different Statin Exposures with Concomitant Administration of Warfarin: Electronic Health Record-Based Retrospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Shin, Dahye; Yoon, Dukyong; Lim, Sun Gyo; Hong, Ji Man; Park, Rae Woong; Lee, Jin Soo

2016-01-01

Patients who should be treated with both warfarin and a statin are frequently seen in vascular clinics. The risk for bleeding and potential drug interactions should be considered when prescribing both medications together. This study aimed to compare the risk for gastrointestinal bleeding among different statin exposures with concomitant administration of warfarin. This is a single-hospital retrospective cohort study. We included patients who were concomitantly exposed to one of four statins (pravastatin, simvastatin, atorvastatin, and rosuvastatin) and warfarin for up to 2 years (730 days). The observation period ended when a gastrointestinal bleeding event occurred or the observation was censored. Within-class comparisons were used, and 1:1 matching using a propensity score was performed for comparisons between each statin and all of the other statins. Kaplan-Meier analyses with log-rank tests and Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were conducted to determine associations with the risk of gastrointestinal bleeding. Data were analyzed for 1,686 patients who were concomitantly administered a statin and warfarin. Log-rank tests for the gastrointestinal bleeding-free survival rate showed that the risk for gastrointestinal bleeding was significantly lower in the pravastatin group (p = 0.0499) and higher in the rosuvastatin group (p = 0.009). In the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, the hazard ratio of 5.394 for gastrointestinal bleeding based on statin exposure in the rosuvastatin group was significant (95% confidence interval, 1.168-24.916). There was a relatively high risk of gastrointestinal bleeding with rosuvastatin when administered concomitantly with warfarin.

Comparison between alcohol- and hepatitis C virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma: clinical presentation, treatment and outcome.

PubMed

Bucci, L; Garuti, F; Camelli, V; Lenzi, B; Farinati, F; Giannini, E G; Ciccarese, F; Piscaglia, F; Rapaccini, G L; Di Marco, M; Caturelli, E; Zoli, M; Borzio, F; Sacco, R; Maida, M; Felder, M; Morisco, F; Gasbarrini, A; Gemini, S; Foschi, F G; Missale, G; Masotto, A; Affronti, A; Bernardi, M; Trevisani, F

2016-02-01

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) and alcohol abuse are the main risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Western countries. To investigate the role of alcoholic aetiology on clinical presentation, treatment and outcome of HCC as well as on each Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, as compared to HCV-related HCCs. A total of 1642 HCV and 573 alcoholic patients from the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database, diagnosed with HCC between January 2000 and December 2012 were compared for age, gender, type of diagnosis, tumour burden, portal vein thrombosis (PVT), oesophageal varices, liver function tests, alpha-fetoprotein, BCLC, treatment and survival. Aetiology was tested as predictor of survival in multivariate Cox regression models and according to HCC stages. Cirrhosis was present in 96% of cases in both groups. Alcoholic patients were younger, more likely male, with HCC diagnosed outside surveillance, in intermediate/terminal BCLC stage and had worse liver function. After adjustment for the lead-time, median (95% CI) overall survival (OS) was 27.4 months (21.5-33.2) in alcoholic and 33.6 months (30.7-36.5) in HCV patients (P = 0.021). The prognostic role of aetiology disappeared when survival was assessed in each BCLC stage and in the Cox regression multivariate models. Alcoholic aetiology affects survival of HCC patients through its negative effects on secondary prevention and cancer presentation but not through a greater cancer aggressiveness or worse treatment result. In fact, survival adjusted for confounding factors was similar in alcoholic and HCV patients. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Highly Prevalent Hyperuricaemia is Associated with Adverse Clinical Outcomes Among Ghanaian Stroke Patients: An Observational Prospective Study.

PubMed

Sarfo, F S; Akassi, J; Antwi, N K B; Obese, V; Adamu, S; Akpalu, A; Bedu-Addo, G

2015-09-01

Although a direct causal relationship between hyperuricaemia and stroke continues to be debated, strong associations between serum uric acid (SUA) and cerebrovascular disease exist. Very few studies have been conducted to evaluate the frequency and association between this potentially modifiable biomarker of vascular risk and stroke in sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore the aim of this study was to examine the association between hyperuricaemia and the traditional risk factors and the outcomes of stroke in Ghanaian patients. In this prospective observational study, 147 patients presenting with stroke at a tertiary referral centre in Ghana were consecutively recruited. Patients were screened for vascular risk factors and SUA concentrations measured after an overnight fast. Associations between hyperuricaemia and stroke outcomes were analysed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. The frequency of hyperuricaemia among Ghanaian stroke patients was 46.3%. Non-significant associations were observed between hyperuricaemia and the traditional risk factors of stroke. SUA concentration was positively correlated with stroke severity and associated with early mortality after an acute stroke with unadjusted hazards ratio of 2.3 (1.4 - 4.2, p=0.001). A potent and independent dose-response association between increasing SUA concentration and hazard of mortality was found on Cox proportional hazards regression, aHR (95% CI) of 1.65 (1.14-2.39), p=0.009 for each 100µmol/l increase in SUA. Hyperuricaemia is highly frequent and associated with adverse functional outcomes among Ghanaian stroke patients. Further studies are warranted to determine whether reducing SUA levels after a stroke would be beneficial within our setting.

Identifying individual changes in performance with composite quality indicators while accounting for regression to the mean.

PubMed

Gajewski, Byron J; Dunton, Nancy

2013-04-01

Almost a decade ago Morton and Torgerson indicated that perceived medical benefits could be due to "regression to the mean." Despite this caution, the regression to the mean "effects on the identification of changes in institutional performance do not seem to have been considered previously in any depth" (Jones and Spiegelhalter). As a response, Jones and Spiegelhalter provide a methodology to adjust for regression to the mean when modeling recent changes in institutional performance for one-variable quality indicators. Therefore, in our view, Jones and Spiegelhalter provide a breakthrough methodology for performance measures. At the same time, in the interests of parsimony, it is useful to aggregate individual quality indicators into a composite score. Our question is, can we develop and demonstrate a methodology that extends the "regression to the mean" literature to allow for composite quality indicators? Using a latent variable modeling approach, we extend the methodology to the composite indicator case. We demonstrate the approach on 4 indicators collected by the National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators. A simulation study further demonstrates its "proof of concept."