The fossil record of evolution: Data on diversification and extinction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sepkoski, J. John, Jr.

1990-01-01

The two principle efforts include: (1) a compilation of a synoptic, mesoscale data base on times of origination and extinction of animal genera in the oceans over the last 600 million years of geologic time; and (2) an analysis of statistical patterns in these data that relate to the diversification of complex life and to the occurrence of mass extinctions, especially those that might be associated with extraterrestrial phenomena. The data base is unique in its taxonomic scope and detail and in its temporal resolution. It is a valuable resource for investigating evolutionary expansions and extinctions of complex life.

Reactivated Memories Compete for Expression After Pavlovian Extinction

PubMed Central

Laborda, Mario A.; Miller, Ralph R.

2012-01-01

We view the response decrement resulting from extinction treatment as an interference effect, in which the reactivated memory from acquisition competes with the reactivated memory from extinction for behavioral expression. For each of these memories, reactivation is proportional to both the strength of the stimulus-outcome association and the quality of the facilitatory cues for that association which are present at test. Here we review basic extinction and recovery-from-extinction phenomena, showing how these effects are explicable in this associative interference framework. Moreover, this orientation has and continues to dictate efficient manipulations for minimizing recovery from extinction. This in turn suggests procedures that might reduce relapse from exposure therapy for a number of psychological disorders. Some of these manipulations enhance the facilitatory cues from extinction that are present at test, others strengthen the extinction association (i.e., CS-no outcome), and yet others seem to work by a combination of these two processes. PMID:22326812

Slower reacquisition after partial extinction in human contingency learning.

PubMed

Morís, Joaquín; Barberia, Itxaso; Vadillo, Miguel A; Andrades, Ainhoa; López, Francisco J

2017-01-01

Extinction is a very relevant learning phenomenon from a theoretical and applied point of view. One of its most relevant features is that relapse phenomena often take place once the extinction training has been completed. Accordingly, as extinction-based therapies constitute the most widespread empirically validated treatment of anxiety disorders, one of their most important limitations is this potential relapse. We provide the first demonstration of relapse reduction in human contingency learning using mild aversive stimuli. This effect was found after partial extinction (i.e., reinforced trials were occasionally experienced during extinction, Experiment 1) and progressive extinction treatments (Experiment 3), and it was not only because of differences in uncertainty levels between the partial and a standard extinction group (Experiment 2). The theoretical explanation of these results, the potential uses of this strategy in applied situations, and its current limitations are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

An interdisciplinary study of the estuarine and coastal oceanography of Block Island Sound and adjacent New York coastal waters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yost, E. F. (Principal Investigator); Hollman, R.; Alexander, J.; Nuzzi, R.

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Photo-optical additive color quantitative measurements were made of ERTS-1 reprocessed positives of New York Bight and Block Island Sound. Regression of these data on almost simultaneous ship sample data of water's physical, chemical, biological, and optical properties showed that ERTS bands 5 and 6 can be used to predict the absolute value of the total number of particles and bands 4 and 5 to predict the relative extinction coefficient in New York Bight. Water masses and mixing patterns in Block Island Sound heretofore considered transient were found to be persistent phenomena requiring revision of existing mathematical and hydraulic models.

Extrinsic extinction cross-section in the multiple acoustic scattering by fluid particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitri, F. G.

2017-04-01

Cross-sections (and their related energy efficiency factors) are physical parameters used in the quantitative analysis of different phenomena arising from the interaction of waves with a particle (or multiple particles). Earlier works with the acoustic scattering theory considered such quadratic (i.e., nonlinear) quantities for a single scatterer, although a few extended the formalism for a pair of scatterers but were limited to the scattering cross-section only. Therefore, the standard formalism applied to viscous particles is not suitable for the complete description of the cross-sections and energy balance of the multiple-particle system because both absorption and extinction phenomena arise during the multiple scattering process. Based upon the law of the conservation of energy, this work provides a complete comprehensive analysis for the extrinsic scattering, absorption, and extinction cross-sections (i.e., in the far-field) of a pair of viscous scatterers of arbitrary shape, immersed in a nonviscous isotropic fluid. A law of acoustic extinction taking into consideration interparticle effects in wave propagation is established, which constitutes a generalized form of the optical theorem in multiple scattering. Analytical expressions for the scattering, absorption, and extinction cross-sections are derived for plane progressive waves with arbitrary incidence. The mathematical expressions are formulated in partial-wave series expansions in cylindrical coordinates involving the angle of incidence, the addition theorem for the cylindrical wave functions, and the expansion coefficients of the scatterers. The analysis shows that the multiple scattering cross-section depends upon the expansion coefficients of both scatterers in addition to an interference factor that depends on the interparticle distance. However, the extinction cross-section depends on the expansion coefficients of the scatterer located in a particular system of coordinates, in addition to the interference term. Numerical examples illustrate the analysis for two viscous fluid circular cylindrical cross-sections immersed in a non-viscous fluid. Computations for the (non-dimensional) scattering, absorption, and extinction cross-section factors are performed with particular emphasis on varying the angle of incidence, the interparticle distance, and the sizes, and the physical properties of the particles. A symmetric behavior is observed for the dimensionless multiple scattering cross-section, while asymmetries arise for both the dimensionless absorption and extinction cross-sections with respect to the angle of incidence. The present analysis provides a complete analytical and computational method for the prediction of cross-section and energy efficiency factors in multiple acoustic scattering of plane waves of arbitrary incidence by a pair of scatterers. The results can be used as a priori information in the direct or inverse characterization of multiple scattering systems such as acoustically engineered fluid metamaterials with reconfigurable periodicities, cloaking devices, liquid crystals, and other applications.

How maize monoculture and increasing winter rainfall have brought the hibernating European hamster to the verge of extinction.

PubMed

Tissier, Mathilde L; Handrich, Yves; Robin, Jean-Patrice; Weitten, Mathieu; Pevet, Paul; Kourkgy, Charlotte; Habold, Caroline

2016-05-06

Over the last decades, climate change and agricultural intensification have been identified as two major phenomena negatively affecting biodiversity. However, little is known about their effects on the life-history traits of hibernating species living in agro-ecosystems. The European hamster (Cricetus cricetus), once a common rodent on agricultural land, is now on the verge of extinction in France. Despite the implemented measures for its protection, populations are still in sharp decline but the reasons for it remain unclear. To investigate how environmental change has affected this hibernating rodent, we used a data set based on 1468 recordings of hamster body mass at emergence from hibernation from 1937 to 2014. We reveal the adverse effects of increasing winter rainfall and maize monoculture intensification on the body mass of wild hamsters. Given the links that exist between body mass, reproductive success and population dynamics in mammals, these results are of particular importance to understand the decline of this species. In view of the rates of maize monoculture intensification and the predicted increase in winter rainfall, it is of the utmost importance to improve land management in Western Europe to avoid the extinction of this species.

Extinction and Renewal of Conditioned Sexual Responses

PubMed Central

Brom, Mirte; Laan, Ellen; Everaerd, Walter; Spinhoven, Philip; Both, Stephanie

2014-01-01

Introduction Extinction involves an inhibitory form of new learning that is highly dependent on the context for expression. This is supported by phenomena such as renewal and spontaneous recovery, which may help explain the persistence of appetitive behavior, and related problems such as addictions. Research on these phenomena in the sexual domain is lacking, where it may help to explain the persistence of learned sexual responses. Method Men (n = 40) and women (n = 62) participated in a differential conditioning paradigm, with genital vibrotactile stimulation as US and neutral pictures as conditional stimuli (CSs). Dependent variables were genital and subjective sexual arousal, affect, US expectancy, and approach and avoid tendencies towards the CSs. Extinction and renewal of conditioned sexual responses were studied by context manipulation (AAA vs. ABA condition). Results No renewal effect of genital conditioned responding could be detected, but an obvious recovery of US expectancy following a context change after extinction (ABA) was demonstrated. Additionally, women demonstrated recovery of subjective affect and subjective sexual arousal. Participants in the ABA demonstrated more approach biases towards stimuli. Conclusions The findings support the context dependency of extinction and renewal of conditioned sexual responses in humans. This knowledge may have implications for the treatment of disturbances in sexual appetitive responses such as hypo- and hypersexuality. PMID:25170909

Extinction and renewal of conditioned sexual responses.

PubMed

Brom, Mirte; Laan, Ellen; Everaerd, Walter; Spinhoven, Philip; Both, Stephanie

2014-01-01

Extinction involves an inhibitory form of new learning that is highly dependent on the context for expression. This is supported by phenomena such as renewal and spontaneous recovery, which may help explain the persistence of appetitive behavior, and related problems such as addictions. Research on these phenomena in the sexual domain is lacking, where it may help to explain the persistence of learned sexual responses. Men (n = 40) and women (n = 62) participated in a differential conditioning paradigm, with genital vibrotactile stimulation as US and neutral pictures as conditional stimuli (CSs). Dependent variables were genital and subjective sexual arousal, affect, US expectancy, and approach and avoid tendencies towards the CSs. Extinction and renewal of conditioned sexual responses were studied by context manipulation (AAA vs. ABA condition). No renewal effect of genital conditioned responding could be detected, but an obvious recovery of US expectancy following a context change after extinction (ABA) was demonstrated. Additionally, women demonstrated recovery of subjective affect and subjective sexual arousal. Participants in the ABA demonstrated more approach biases towards stimuli. The findings support the context dependency of extinction and renewal of conditioned sexual responses in humans. This knowledge may have implications for the treatment of disturbances in sexual appetitive responses such as hypo- and hypersexuality.

Extinction Phenomena: A Biologic Perspective on How and Why Psychoanalysis Works

PubMed Central

Brakel, Linda A. W.

2011-01-01

This article presents the view that much of the success of classical psychoanalysis is centrally predicated on its biological potency; focusing not on neuropsychology, but on the biology of conditioning. The argument suggests that features of classic psychoanalytic technique – the couch, meetings several times per week with both parties present, and free association – uniquely facilitate intense transferences of various sorts, and that these in turn constitute the multiple and diverse extinction trials necessary to best approximate extinction. PMID:21927610

Through-transmission laser welding of glass fibre composite: Experimental light scattering identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosson, Benoit; Asséko, André Chateau Akué; Dauphin, Myriam

2018-05-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop a cost-effective, efficient and quick to implement experimental optical method in order to predict the optical properties (extinction coefficient) of semi-transparent polymer composites. The extinction coefficient takes into account the effects due to the absorption and the scattering phenomena in a semi-transparent component during the laser processes, i.e. TTLW (through-transmission laser welding). The present method used a laser as light source and a reflex camera equipped with a macro lens as a measurement device and is based on the light transmission measurement through different thickness samples. The interaction between the incident laser beam and the semi-transparent composite is exanimated. The results are presented for the case of a semi-transparent composite reinforced with the unidirectional glass fiber (UD). A numerical method, ray tracing, is used to validate the experimental results. The ray tracing method is appropriate to characterize the light-scattering phenomenon in semi-transparent materials.

Metapopulation extinction risk: dispersal's duplicity.

PubMed

Higgins, Kevin

2009-09-01

Metapopulation extinction risk is the probability that all local populations are simultaneously extinct during a fixed time frame. Dispersal may reduce a metapopulation's extinction risk by raising its average per-capita growth rate. By contrast, dispersal may raise a metapopulation's extinction risk by reducing its average population density. Which effect prevails is controlled by habitat fragmentation. Dispersal in mildly fragmented habitat reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk by raising its average per-capita growth rate without causing any appreciable drop in its average population density. By contrast, dispersal in severely fragmented habitat raises a metapopulation's extinction risk because the rise in its average per-capita growth rate is more than offset by the decline in its average population density. The metapopulation model used here shows several other interesting phenomena. Dispersal in sufficiently fragmented habitat reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk to that of a constant environment. Dispersal between habitat fragments reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk insofar as local environments are asynchronous. Grouped dispersal raises the effective habitat fragmentation level. Dispersal search barriers raise metapopulation extinction risk. Nonuniform dispersal may reduce the effective fraction of suitable habitat fragments below the extinction threshold. Nonuniform dispersal may make demographic stochasticity a more potent metapopulation extinction force than environmental stochasticity.

NONLINEAR OPTICAL PHENOMENA: Self-reflection in a system of excitons and biexcitons in semiconductors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khadzhi, P. I.; Lyakhomskaya, K. D.

1999-10-01

The characteristic features of the self-reflection of a powerful electromagnetic wave in a system of coherent excitons and biexcitons in semiconductors were investigated as one of the manifestations of the nonlinear optical skin effect. It was found that a monotonically decreasing standing wave with an exponentially falling spatial tail is formed in the surface region of a semiconductor. Under the influence of the field of a powerful pulse, an optically homogeneous medium is converted into one with distributed feedback. The appearance of spatially separated narrow peaks of the refractive index, extinction coefficient, and reflection coefficient is predicted.

Compound Stimulus Presentation Does Not Deepen Extinction in Human Causal Learning

PubMed Central

Griffiths, Oren; Holmes, Nathan; Westbrook, R. Fred

2017-01-01

Models of associative learning have proposed that cue-outcome learning critically depends on the degree of prediction error encountered during training. Two experiments examined the role of error-driven extinction learning in a human causal learning task. Target cues underwent extinction in the presence of additional cues, which differed in the degree to which they predicted the outcome, thereby manipulating outcome expectancy and, in the absence of any change in reinforcement, prediction error. These prediction error manipulations have each been shown to modulate extinction learning in aversive conditioning studies. While both manipulations resulted in increased prediction error during training, neither enhanced extinction in the present human learning task (one manipulation resulted in less extinction at test). The results are discussed with reference to the types of associations that are regulated by prediction error, the types of error terms involved in their regulation, and how these interact with parameters involved in training. PMID:28232809

Quantitative Studies on the Propagation and Extinction of Near-Limit Premixed Flames Under Normal and Microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dong, Y.; Spedding, G. R.; Egolfopoulos, F. N.; Miller, F. J.

2003-01-01

The main objective of this research is to introduce accurate fluid mechanics measurements diagnostics in the 2.2-s drop tower for the determination of the detailed flow-field at the states of extinction. These results are important as they can then be compared with confidence with detailed numerical simulations so that important insight is provided into near-limit phenomena that are controlled by not well-understood kinetics and thermal radiation processes. Past qualitative studies did enhance our general understanding on the subject. However, quantitative studies are essential for the validation of existing models that subsequently be used to describe near-limit phenomena that can initiate catastrophic events in micro- and/or reduced gravity environments.

Demographic and Component Allee Effects in Southern Lake Superior Gray Wolves

PubMed Central

Stenglein, Jennifer L.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.

2016-01-01

Recovering populations of carnivores suffering Allee effects risk extinction because positive population growth requires a minimum number of cooperating individuals. Conservationists seldom consider these issues in planning for carnivore recovery because of data limitations, but ignoring Allee effects could lead to overly optimistic predictions for growth and underestimates of extinction risk. We used Bayesian splines to document a demographic Allee effect in the time series of gray wolf (Canis lupus) population counts (1980–2011) in the southern Lake Superior region (SLS, Wisconsin and the upper peninsula of Michigan, USA) in each of four measures of population growth. We estimated that the population crossed the Allee threshold at roughly 20 wolves in four to five packs. Maximum per-capita population growth occurred in the mid-1990s when there were approximately 135 wolves in the SLS population. To infer mechanisms behind the demographic Allee effect, we evaluated a potential component Allee effect using an individual-based spatially explicit model for gray wolves in the SLS region. Our simulations varied the perception neighborhoods for mate-finding and the mean dispersal distances of wolves. Simulation of wolves with long-distance dispersals and reduced perception neighborhoods were most likely to go extinct or experience Allee effects. These phenomena likely restricted population growth in early years of SLS wolf population recovery. PMID:26930665

Demographic and Component Allee Effects in Southern Lake Superior Gray Wolves.

PubMed

Stenglein, Jennifer L; Van Deelen, Timothy R

2016-01-01

Recovering populations of carnivores suffering Allee effects risk extinction because positive population growth requires a minimum number of cooperating individuals. Conservationists seldom consider these issues in planning for carnivore recovery because of data limitations, but ignoring Allee effects could lead to overly optimistic predictions for growth and underestimates of extinction risk. We used Bayesian splines to document a demographic Allee effect in the time series of gray wolf (Canis lupus) population counts (1980-2011) in the southern Lake Superior region (SLS, Wisconsin and the upper peninsula of Michigan, USA) in each of four measures of population growth. We estimated that the population crossed the Allee threshold at roughly 20 wolves in four to five packs. Maximum per-capita population growth occurred in the mid-1990s when there were approximately 135 wolves in the SLS population. To infer mechanisms behind the demographic Allee effect, we evaluated a potential component Allee effect using an individual-based spatially explicit model for gray wolves in the SLS region. Our simulations varied the perception neighborhoods for mate-finding and the mean dispersal distances of wolves. Simulation of wolves with long-distance dispersals and reduced perception neighborhoods were most likely to go extinct or experience Allee effects. These phenomena likely restricted population growth in early years of SLS wolf population recovery.

Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable.

PubMed

Ellner, Stephen P; Holmes, Elizabeth E

2008-08-01

We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. (Ecology Letters, 10, 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.

Predicting the process of extinction in experimental microcosms and accounting for interspecific interactions in single-species time series

PubMed Central

Ferguson, Jake M; Ponciano, José M

2014-01-01

Predicting population extinction risk is a fundamental application of ecological theory to the practice of conservation biology. Here, we compared the prediction performance of a wide array of stochastic, population dynamics models against direct observations of the extinction process from an extensive experimental data set. By varying a series of biological and statistical assumptions in the proposed models, we were able to identify the assumptions that affected predictions about population extinction. We also show how certain autocorrelation structures can emerge due to interspecific interactions, and that accounting for the stochastic effect of these interactions can improve predictions of the extinction process. We conclude that it is possible to account for the stochastic effects of community interactions on extinction when using single-species time series. PMID:24304946

Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk

PubMed Central

Maclean, Ilya M. D.; Wilson, Robert J.

2011-01-01

Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity. PMID:21746924

Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk.

PubMed

Maclean, Ilya M D; Wilson, Robert J

2011-07-26

Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity.

Predicting the process of extinction in experimental microcosms and accounting for interspecific interactions in single-species time series.

PubMed

Ferguson, Jake M; Ponciano, José M

2014-02-01

Predicting population extinction risk is a fundamental application of ecological theory to the practice of conservation biology. Here, we compared the prediction performance of a wide array of stochastic, population dynamics models against direct observations of the extinction process from an extensive experimental data set. By varying a series of biological and statistical assumptions in the proposed models, we were able to identify the assumptions that affected predictions about population extinction. We also show how certain autocorrelation structures can emerge due to interspecific interactions, and that accounting for the stochastic effect of these interactions can improve predictions of the extinction process. We conclude that it is possible to account for the stochastic effects of community interactions on extinction when using single-species time series. © 2013 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

Human demography and reserve size predict wildlife extinction in West Africa.

PubMed Central

Brashares, J S; Arcese, P; Sam, M K

2001-01-01

Species-area models have become the primary tool used to predict baseline extinction rates for species in isolated habitats, and have influenced conservation and land-use planning worldwide. In particular, these models have been used to predict extinction rates following the loss or fragmentation of natural habitats in the absence of direct human influence on species persistence. Thus, where direct human influences, such as hunting, put added pressure on species in remnant habitat patches, we should expect to observe extinction rates higher than those predicted by simple species-area models. Here, we show that extinction rates for 41 species of large mammals in six nature reserves in West Africa are 14-307 times higher than those predicted by models based on reserve size alone. Human population and reserve size accounted for 98% of the observed variation in extinction rates between reserves. Extinction occurred at higher rates than predicted by species-area models for carnivores, primates and ungulates, and at the highest rates overall near reserve borders. Our results indicate that, where the harvest of wildlife is common, conservation plans should focus on increasing the size of reserves and reducing the rate of hunting. PMID:11747566

Prediction of apparent extinction for optical transmission through rain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasseur, H.; Gibbins, C. J.

1996-12-01

At optical wavelengths, geometrical optics holds that the extinction efficiency of raindrops is equal to two. This approximation yields a wavelength-independent extinction coefficient that, however, can hardly be used to predict accurately rain extinction measured in optical transmissions. Actually, in addition to the extinct direct incoming light, a significant part of the power scattered by the rain particles reaches the receiver. This leads to a reduced apparent extinction that depends on both rain characteristics and link parameters. A simple method is proposed to evaluate this apparent extinction. It accounts for the additional scattered power that enters the receiver when one considers the forward-scattering pattern of the raindrops as well as the multiple-scattering effects using, respectively, the Fraunhofer diffraction and Twersky theory. It results in a direct analytical formula that enables a quick and accurate estimation of the rain apparent extinction and highlights the influence of the link parameters. Predictions of apparent extinction through rain are found in excellent agreement with measurements in the visible and IR regions.

Acute exercise enhances the consolidation of fear extinction memory and reduces conditioned fear relapse in a sex-dependent manner.

PubMed

Bouchet, Courtney A; Lloyd, Brian A; Loetz, Esteban C; Farmer, Caroline E; Ostrovskyy, Mykola; Haddad, Natalie; Foright, Rebecca M; Greenwood, Benjamin N

2017-08-01

Fear extinction-based exposure therapy is the most common behavioral therapy for anxiety and trauma-related disorders, but fear extinction memories are labile and fear tends to return even after successful extinction. The relapse of fear contributes to the poor long-term efficacy of exposure therapy. A single session of voluntary exercise can enhance the acquisition and consolidation of fear extinction in male rats, but the effects of exercise on relapse of fear after extinction are not well understood. Here, we characterized the effects of 2 h of voluntary exercise during the consolidation phase of contextual or auditory fear extinction learning on long-term fear extinction memory and renewal in adult, male and female, Long-Evans rats. Results indicate that exercise enhances consolidation of fear extinction memory and reduces fear relapse after extinction in a sex-dependent manner. These data suggest that brief bouts of exercise could be used as an augmentation strategy for exposure therapy, even in previously sedentary subjects. Fear memories of discrete cues, rather than of contextual ones, may be most susceptible to exercise-augmented extinction, especially in males. Additionally, exercise seems to have the biggest impact on fear relapse phenomena, even if fear extinction memories themselves are only minimally enhanced. © 2017 Bouchet et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Historical and contingent factors affect re-evolution of a complex feature lost during mass extinction in communities of digital organisms.

PubMed

Yedid, G; Ofria, C A; Lenski, R E

2008-09-01

Re-evolution of complex biological features following the extinction of taxa bearing them remains one of evolution's most interesting phenomena, but is not amenable to study in fossil taxa. We used communities of digital organisms (computer programs that self-replicate, mutate and evolve), subjected to periods of low resource availability, to study the evolution, loss and re-evolution of a complex computational trait, the function EQU (bit-wise logical equals). We focused our analysis on cases where the pre-extinction EQU clade had surviving descendents at the end of the extinction episode. To see if these clades retained the capacity to re-evolve EQU, we seeded one set of multiple subreplicate 'replay' populations using the most abundant survivor of the pre-extinction EQU clade, and another set with the actual end-extinction ancestor of the organism in which EQU re-evolved following the extinction episode. Our results demonstrate that stochastic, historical, genomic and ecological factors can lead to constraints on further adaptation, and facilitate or hinder re-evolution of a complex feature.

Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches.

PubMed

Sinervo, Barry; Méndez-de-la-Cruz, Fausto; Miles, Donald B; Heulin, Benoit; Bastiaans, Elizabeth; Villagrán-Santa Cruz, Maricela; Lara-Resendiz, Rafael; Martínez-Méndez, Norberto; Calderón-Espinosa, Martha Lucía; Meza-Lázaro, Rubi Nelsi; Gadsden, Héctor; Avila, Luciano Javier; Morando, Mariana; De la Riva, Ignacio J; Victoriano Sepulveda, Pedro; Rocha, Carlos Frederico Duarte; Ibargüengoytía, Nora; Aguilar Puntriano, César; Massot, Manuel; Lepetz, Virginie; Oksanen, Tuula A; Chapple, David G; Bauer, Aaron M; Branch, William R; Clobert, Jean; Sites, Jack W

2010-05-14

It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.

Extinction of alcohol seeking is enhanced by compound extinction and the noradrenaline reuptake inhibitor atomoxetine.

PubMed

Leung, Hiu T; Corbit, Laura H

2017-01-01

Alcohol-related stimuli can trigger relapse of alcohol-seeking behaviors even after extended periods of abstinence. Extinction of such stimuli provides a means for reducing their impact on relapse. However, the expression of extinction can be disrupted by exposure to the previous reinforcer as well as the simple passage of time. We investigated whether augmentation of prediction error or of noradrenaline neurotransmission by the reuptake inhibitor atomoxetine would enhance long-term extinction of alcohol-seeking behavior. Rats received Pavlovian conditioning of multiple stimuli signaling the delivery of an alcohol reward before individual extinction was given to each of these stimuli. Further extinction was then given to a target stimulus presented in compound with another alcohol-predictive stimulus intended to augment prediction error (Experiment 1) or after a systemic injection of atomoxetine (1.0 mg/kg; Experiment 2). Experiment 3 examined whether the compound stimulus effect relied on noradrenergic activity by testing the effects of the β-adrenergic antagonist propranolol, given prior to compound stimulus trials. Long-term retention of extinction learning was assessed a week later. Compound stimulus presentations enhanced long-term extinction as the stimulus extinguished in compound elicited less responding than a stimulus receiving equal extinction alone when tested a week later. This effect was mimicked by atomoxetine and blocked by propranolol given during extinction training. Thus, extinction of alcohol-seeking behavior can be improved by extinguishing multiple alcohol-predictive stimuli or enhancing noradrenaline neurotransmission during extinction training. Both behavioral and neurobiological processes could be exploited to enhance the outcome of extinction-based treatments for alcohol use disorders. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Extinction and anti-extinction: the "attentional waiting" hypothesis.

PubMed

Watling, Rosamond; Danckert, James; Linnell, Karina J; Cocchini, Gianna

2013-03-01

Patients with visual extinction have difficulty detecting a single contralesional stimulus when a second stimulus is simultaneously presented on the ipsilesional side. The rarely reported phenomenon of visual anti-extinction describes the opposite behavior, in which patients show greater difficulty in reporting a stimulus presented in isolation than they do in reporting 2 simultaneously presented stimuli. S. J. Goodrich and R. Ward (1997, Anti-extinction following unilateral parietal damage, Cognitive Neuropsychology, Vol. 14, pp. 595-612) suggested that visual anti-extinction is the result of a task-specific mechanism in which processing of the ipsilesional stimulus facilitates responses to the contralesional stimulus; in contrast, G. W. Humphreys, M. J. Riddoch, G. Nys, and D. Heinke (2002, Transient binding by time: Neuropsychological evidence from anti-extinction, Cognitive Neuropsychology, Vol. 19, pp. 361-380) suggested that temporal binding groups contralesional and ipsilesional stimuli together at brief exposure durations. We investigated extinction and anti-extinction phenomena in 3 brain-damaged patients using an extinction paradigm in which the stimulus exposure duration was systematically manipulated. Two patients showed both extinction and anti-extinction depending on the exposure duration of stimuli. Data confirmed the crucial role of duration in modulating the effect of extinction and anti-extinction. However, contrary to Humphreys and colleagues' (2002) single case, our patients showed extinction for short and anti-extinction for long exposure durations, suggesting that different mechanisms might underlie our patients' pattern of data. We discuss a novel "attentional waiting" hypothesis, which proposes that anti-extinction may be observed in patients showing extinction if the exposure duration of stimuli is increased. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

No impact of repeated extinction exposures on operant responding maintained by different reinforcer rates.

PubMed

Bai, John Y H; Podlesnik, Christopher A

2017-05-01

Greater rates of intermittent reinforcement in the presence of discriminative stimuli generally produce greater resistance to extinction, consistent with predictions of behavioral momentum theory. Other studies reveal more rapid extinction with higher rates of reinforcers - the partial reinforcement extinction effect. Further, repeated extinction often produces more rapid decreases in operant responding due to learning a discrimination between training and extinction contingencies. The present study examined extinction repeatedly with training with different rates of intermittent reinforcement in a multiple schedule. We assessed whether repeated extinction would reverse the pattern of greater resistance to extinction with greater reinforcer rates. Counter to this prediction, resistance to extinction was consistently greater across twelve assessments of training followed by six successive sessions of extinction. Moreover, patterns of responding during extinction resembled those observed during satiation tests, which should not alter discrimination processes with repeated testing. These findings join others suggesting operant responding in extinction can be durable across repeated tests. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effects of compound stimulus extinction and inhibition of noradrenaline reuptake on the renewal of alcohol seeking

PubMed Central

Furlong, T M; Pan, M J; Corbit, L H

2015-01-01

Alcohol-related stimuli can trigger relapse of alcohol-seeking behaviors even after extended periods of abstinence. Extinction of such stimuli can reduce their impact on relapse; however, the expression of extinction can be disrupted when testing occurs outside the context where extinction learning took place, an effect termed renewal. Behavioral and pharmacological methods have recently been shown to augment extinction learning; yet, it is not known whether the improved expression of extinction following these treatments remains context-dependent. Here we examined whether two methods, compound–stimulus extinction and treatment with the noradrenaline reuptake inhibitor atomoxetine, would reduce the vulnerability of extinction to a change in context. Following alcohol self-administration, responding was extinguished in a distinct context. After initial extinction, further extinction was given to a target stimulus presented in compound with another alcohol-predictive stimulus intended to augment prediction error (Experiment 1) or after a systemic injection of atomoxetine (1.0 mg kg−1; Experiment 2). A stimulus extinguished as part of a compound elicited less responding than a stimulus receiving equal extinction alone regardless of whether animals were tested in the training or extinction context; however, reliable renewal was not observed in this paradigm. Importantly, atomoxetine enhanced extinction relative to controls even in the presence of a reliable renewal effect. Thus, extinction of alcohol-seeking behavior can be improved by extinguishing multiple alcohol-predictive stimuli or enhancing noradrenaline neurotransmission during extinction training. Importantly, both methods improve extinction even when the context is changed between extinction training and test, and thus could be utilized to enhance the outcome of extinction-based treatments for alcohol-use disorders. PMID:26327688

Physiological Response to Reward and Extinction Predicts Alcohol, Marijuana, and Cigarette Use Two Years Later

PubMed Central

Derefinko, Karen J.; Eisenlohr-Moul, Tory A.; Peters, Jessica R.; Roberts, Walter; Walsh, Erin C.; Milich, Richard; Lynam, Donald R.

2017-01-01

Background Physiological responses to reward and extinction are believed to represent the Behavioral Activation System (BAS) and Behavioral Inhibition System (BIS) constructs of Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory and underlie externalizing behaviors, including substance use. However, little research has examined these relations directly. Methods We assessed individuals’ cardiac pre-ejection periods (PEP) and electrodermal responses (EDR) during reward and extinction trials through the “Number Elimination Game” paradigm. Responses represented BAS and BIS, respectively. We then examined whether these responses provided incremental utility in the prediction of future alcohol, marijuana, and cigarette use. Results Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression models were used to examine the predictive utility of physiological BAS and BIS responses above and beyond previous substance use. Physiological responses accounted for incremental variance over previous use. Low BAS responses during reward predicted frequency of alcohol use at year 3. Low BAS responses during reward and extinction and high BIS responses during extinction predicted frequency of marijuana use at year 3. For cigarette use, low BAS response during extinction predicted use at year 3. Conclusions These findings suggest that the constructs of Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory, as assessed through physiology, contribute to the longitudinal maintenance of substance use. PMID:27306728

Animal Models of Fear Relapse

PubMed Central

Goode, Travis D.; Maren, Stephen

2014-01-01

Whereas fear memories are rapidly acquired and enduring over time, extinction memories are slow to form and are susceptible to disruption. Consequently, behavioral therapies that involve extinction learning (e.g., exposure therapy) often produce only temporary suppression of fear and anxiety. This review focuses on the factors that are known to influence the relapse of extinguished fear. Several phenomena associated with the return of fear after extinction are discussed, including renewal, spontaneous recovery, reacquisition, and reinstatement. Additionally, this review describes recent work, which has focused on the role of psychological stress in the relapse of extinguished fear. Recent developments in behavioral and pharmacological research are examined in light of treatment of pathological fear in humans. PMID:25225304

Post-Extinction Conditional Stimulus Valence Predicts Reinstatement Fear: Relevance for Long Term Outcomes of Exposure Therapy

PubMed Central

Zbozinek, Tomislav D.; Hermans, Dirk; Prenoveau, Jason M.; Liao, Betty; Craske, Michelle G.

2014-01-01

Exposure therapy for anxiety disorders is translated from fear conditioning and extinction. While exposure therapy is effective in treating anxiety, fear sometimes returns after exposure. One pathway for return of fear is reinstatement: unsignaled unconditional stimuli following completion of extinction. The present study investigated the extent to which valence of the conditional stimulus (CS+) after extinction predicts return of CS+ fear after reinstatement. Participants (N = 84) engaged in a differential fear conditioning paradigm and were randomized to reinstatement or non-reinstatement. We hypothesized that more negative post-extinction CS+ valence would predict higher CS+ fear after reinstatement relative to non-reinstatement and relative to extinction retest. Results supported the hypotheses and suggest that strategies designed to decrease negative valence of the CS+ may reduce the return of fear via reinstatement following exposure therapy. PMID:24957680

Psychological and Neural Mechanisms of Experimental Extinction: A Selective Review

PubMed Central

Delamater, Andrew R.; Westbrook, R. Frederick

2013-01-01

The present review examines key psychological concepts in the study of experimental extinction and implications these have for an understanding of the underlying neurobiology of extinction learning. We suggest that many of the signature characteristics of extinction learning (spontaneous recovery, renewal, reinstatement, rapid reacquisition) can be accommodated by the standard associative learning theory assumption that extinction results in partial erasure of the original learning together with new inhibitory learning. Moreover, we consider recent behavioral and neural evidence that supports the partial erasure view of extinction, but also note shortcomings in our understanding of extinction circuits as these relate to the negative prediction error concept. Recent work suggests that common prediction error and stimulus-specific prediction error terms both may be required to explain neural plasticity both in acquisition and extinction learning. In addition, we suggest that many issues in the content of extinction learning have not been fully addressed in current research, but that neurobiological approaches should be especially helpful in addressing such issues. These include questions about the nature of extinction learning (excitatory CS-No US, inhibitory CS-US learning, occasion setting processes), especially as this relates to studies of the micro-circuitry of extinction, as well as its representational content (sensory, motivational, response). An additional understudied problem in extinction research is the role played by attention processes and their underlying neural networks, although some research and theory converge on the idea that extinction is accompanied by attention decrements (i.e., habituation-like processes). PMID:24104049

Psychological and neural mechanisms of experimental extinction: a selective review.

PubMed

Delamater, Andrew R; Westbrook, R Frederick

2014-02-01

The present review examines key psychological concepts in the study of experimental extinction and implications these have for an understanding of the underlying neurobiology of extinction learning. We suggest that many of the signature characteristics of extinction learning (spontaneous recovery, renewal, reinstatement, rapid reacquisition) can be accommodated by the standard associative learning theory assumption that extinction results in partial erasure of the original learning together with new inhibitory learning. Moreover, we consider recent behavioral and neural evidence that supports the partial erasure view of extinction, but also note shortcomings in our understanding of extinction circuits as these relate to the negative prediction error concept. Recent work suggests that common prediction error and stimulus-specific prediction error terms both may be required to explain neural plasticity both in acquisition and extinction learning. In addition, we suggest that many issues in the content of extinction learning have not been fully addressed in current research, but that neurobiological approaches should be especially helpful in addressing such issues. These include questions about the nature of extinction learning (excitatory CS-No US, inhibitory CS-US learning, occasion setting processes), especially as this relates to studies of the micro-circuitry of extinction, as well as its representational content (sensory, motivational, response). An additional understudied problem in extinction research is the role played by attention processes and their underlying neural networks, although some research and theory converge on the idea that extinction is accompanied by attention decrements (i.e., habituation-like processes). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Behavioral studies of learning in the Africanized honey bee (Apis mellifera L.).

PubMed

Abramson, Charles I; Aquino, Italo S

2002-01-01

Experiments on basic classical conditioning phenomena in adult and young Africanized honey bees (Apis mellifera L.) are described. Phenomena include conditioning to various stimuli, extinction (both unpaired and CS only), conditioned inhibition, color and odor discrimination. In addition to work on basic phenomena, experiments on practical applications of conditioning methodology are illustrated with studies demonstrating the effects of insecticides on learning and the reaction of bees to consumer products. Electron microscope photos are presented of Africanized workers, drones, and queen bees. Possible sub-species differences between Africanized and European bees are discussed. Copyright 2002 S. Karger AG, Basel

Can oncology recapitulate paleontology? Lessons from species extinctions

PubMed Central

Walther, Viola; Hiley, Crispin T.; Shibata, Darryl; Swanton, Charles; Turner, Paul E.; Maley, Carlo C.

2015-01-01

Although we can treat cancers with cytotoxic chemotherapies, target them with molecules that bind to oncogenic drivers, and induce substantial cell death with radiation, local and metastatic tumours recur, resulting in extensive morbidity and mortality. It is difficult to drive a tumour to extinction. Geographically dispersed species are perhaps equally resistant to extinction, but >99.9% of species that have ever existed have become extinct. By contrast, we are nowhere near that level of success in cancer therapy. The phenomena are broadly analogous. In both cases, a genetically diverse population mutates and evolves through natural selection. The goal of cancer therapy is to cause cancer cell population extinction or at least to limit any further increase in population size, so the tumour burden does not overwhelm the patient. However, despite available treatments, complete responses are rare, and partial responses are limited in duration. Many patients eventually relapse with tumours that evolve from cells that survive therapy. Similarly, species are remarkably resilient to environmental change. Paleontology can show us the conditions that lead to extinction and the characteristics of species that make them resistant to extinction. These lessons could be translated to improve cancer therapy and prognosis. PMID:25687908

Droplet burning at zero G

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, F. A.

1978-01-01

Questions of the importance and feasibility of performing experiments on droplet burning at zero gravity in Spacelab were studied. Information on the physics and chemistry of droplet combustion, with attention directed specifically to the chemical kinetics, heat and mass transfer, and fluid mechanics of the phenomena involved, are presented. The work was divided into three phases, the justification, the feasibility, and the conceptual development of a preliminary design. Results from the experiments performed revealed a few new facts concerning droplet burning, notably burning rates in excess of theoretical prediction and a phenomenon of flash extinction, both likely traceable to accumulation of carbon produced by gas-phase pyrolysis in the fuel-rich zone enclosed by the reaction surface. These experiments also showed that they were primarily due to timing difficulties.

An Improved Method of Predicting Extinction Coefficients for the Determination of Protein Concentration.

PubMed

Hilario, Eric C; Stern, Alan; Wang, Charlie H; Vargas, Yenny W; Morgan, Charles J; Swartz, Trevor E; Patapoff, Thomas W

2017-01-01

Concentration determination is an important method of protein characterization required in the development of protein therapeutics. There are many known methods for determining the concentration of a protein solution, but the easiest to implement in a manufacturing setting is absorption spectroscopy in the ultraviolet region. For typical proteins composed of the standard amino acids, absorption at wavelengths near 280 nm is due to the three amino acid chromophores tryptophan, tyrosine, and phenylalanine in addition to a contribution from disulfide bonds. According to the Beer-Lambert law, absorbance is proportional to concentration and path length, with the proportionality constant being the extinction coefficient. Typically the extinction coefficient of proteins is experimentally determined by measuring a solution absorbance then experimentally determining the concentration, a measurement with some inherent variability depending on the method used. In this study, extinction coefficients were calculated based on the measured absorbance of model compounds of the four amino acid chromophores. These calculated values for an unfolded protein were then compared with an experimental concentration determination based on enzymatic digestion of proteins. The experimentally determined extinction coefficient for the native proteins was consistently found to be 1.05 times the calculated value for the unfolded proteins for a wide range of proteins with good accuracy and precision under well-controlled experimental conditions. The value of 1.05 times the calculated value was termed the predicted extinction coefficient. Statistical analysis shows that the differences between predicted and experimentally determined coefficients are scattered randomly, indicating no systematic bias between the values among the proteins measured. The predicted extinction coefficient was found to be accurate and not subject to the inherent variability of experimental methods. We propose the use of a predicted extinction coefficient for determining the protein concentration of therapeutic proteins starting from early development through the lifecycle of the product. LAY ABSTRACT: Knowing the concentration of a protein in a pharmaceutical solution is important to the drug's development and posology. There are many ways to determine the concentration, but the easiest one to use in a testing lab employs absorption spectroscopy. Absorbance of ultraviolet light by a protein solution is proportional to its concentration and path length; the proportionality constant is the extinction coefficient. The extinction coefficient of a protein therapeutic is usually determined experimentally during early product development and has some inherent method variability. In this study, extinction coefficients of several proteins were calculated based on the measured absorbance of model compounds. These calculated values for an unfolded protein were then compared with experimental concentration determinations based on enzymatic digestion of the proteins. The experimentally determined extinction coefficient for the native protein was 1.05 times the calculated value for the unfolded protein with good accuracy and precision under controlled experimental conditions, so the value of 1.05 times the calculated coefficient was called the predicted extinction coefficient. Comparison of predicted and measured extinction coefficients indicated that the predicted value was very close to the experimentally determined values for the proteins. The predicted extinction coefficient was accurate and removed the variability inherent in experimental methods. © PDA, Inc. 2017.

Evidence for recovery of fear following immediate extinction in rats and humans

PubMed Central

Schiller, Daniela; Cain, Christopher K.; Curley, Nina G.; Schwartz, Jennifer S.; Stern, Sarah A.; LeDoux, Joseph E.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

2008-01-01

Fear responses can be eliminated through extinction, a procedure involving the presentation of fear-eliciting stimuli without aversive outcomes. Extinction is believed to be mediated by new inhibitory learning that acts to suppress fear expression without erasing the original memory trace. This hypothesis is supported mainly by behavioral data demonstrating that fear can recover following extinction. However, a recent report by Myers and coworkers suggests that extinction conducted immediately after fear learning may erase or prevent the consolidation of the fear memory trace. Since extinction is a major component of nearly all behavioral therapies for human fear disorders, this finding supports the notion that therapeutic intervention beginning very soon after a traumatic event will be more efficacious. Given the importance of this issue, and the controversy regarding immediate versus delayed therapeutic interventions, we examined two fear recovery phenomena in both rats and humans: spontaneous recovery (SR) and reinstatement. We found evidence for SR and reinstatement in both rats and humans even when extinction was conducted immediately after fear learning. Thus, our data do not support the hypothesis that immediate extinction erases the original memory trace, nor do they suggest that a close temporal proximity of therapeutic intervention to the traumatic event might be advantageous. PMID:18509113

Expanding the role of striatal cholinergic interneurons and the midbrain dopamine system in appetitive instrumental conditioning.

PubMed

Crossley, Matthew J; Horvitz, Jon C; Balsam, Peter D; Ashby, F Gregory

2016-01-01

The basal ganglia are a collection of subcortical nuclei thought to underlie a wide variety of vertebrate behavior. Although a great deal is known about the functional and physiological properties of the basal ganglia, relatively few models have been formally developed that have been tested against both behavioral and physiological data. Our previous work (Ashby FG, Crossley MJ. J Cogn Neurosci 23: 1549-1566, 2011) showed that a model grounded in the neurobiology of the basal ganglia could account for basic single-neuron recording data, as well as behavioral phenomena such as fast reacquisition that constrain models of conditioning. In this article we show that this same model accounts for a variety of appetitive instrumental conditioning phenomena, including the partial reinforcement extinction (PRE) effect, rapid and slowed reacquisition following extinction, and renewal of previously extinguished instrumental responses by environmental context cues. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Deepened Extinction following Compound Stimulus Presentation: Noradrenergic Modulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Janak, Patricia H.; Corbit, Laura H.

2011-01-01

Behavioral extinction is an active form of new learning involving the prediction of nonreward where reward has previously been present. The expression of extinction learning can be disrupted by the presentation of reward itself or reward-predictive stimuli (reinstatement) as well as the passage of time (spontaneous recovery) or contextual changes…

Unravelling the structure of species extinction risk for predictive conservation science.

PubMed

Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

2011-05-07

Extinction risk varies across species and space owing to the combined and interactive effects of ecology/life history and geography. For predictive conservation science to be effective, large datasets and integrative models that quantify the relative importance of potential factors and separate rapidly changing from relatively static threat drivers are urgently required. Here, we integrate and map in space the relative and joint effects of key correlates of The International Union for Conservation of Nature-assessed extinction risk for 8700 living birds. Extinction risk varies significantly with species' broad-scale environmental niche, geographical range size, and life-history and ecological traits such as body size, developmental mode, primary diet and foraging height. Even at this broad scale, simple quantifications of past human encroachment across species' ranges emerge as key in predicting extinction risk, supporting the use of land-cover change projections for estimating future threat in an integrative setting. A final joint model explains much of the interspecific variation in extinction risk and provides a remarkably strong prediction of its observed global geography. Our approach unravels the species-level structure underlying geographical gradients in extinction risk and offers a means of disentangling static from changing components of current and future threat. This reconciliation of intrinsic and extrinsic, and of past and future extinction risk factors may offer a critical step towards a more continuous, forward-looking assessment of species' threat status based on geographically explicit environmental change projections, potentially advancing global predictive conservation science.

Preventing Return of Fear in an Animal Model of Anxiety: Additive Effects of Massive Extinction and Extinction in Multiple Contexts

PubMed Central

Laborda, Mario A.; Miller, Ralph R.

2013-01-01

Fear conditioning and experimental extinction have been presented as models of anxiety disorders and exposure therapy, respectively. Moreover, the return of fear serves as a model of relapse after exposure therapy. Here we present two experiments, with rats as subjects in a lick suppression preparation, in which we assessed the additive effects of two different treatments to attenuate the return of fear. First, we evaluated whether two phenomena known to generate return of fear (i.e., spontaneous recovery and renewal) summate to produce a stronger reappearance of extinguished fear. At test, rats evaluated outside the extinction context following a long delay after extinction (i.e., a delayed context shift) exhibited greater return of extinguished fear than rats evaluated outside the extinction context alone, but return of extinguished fear following a delayed context shift did not significantly differ from the return of fear elicited in rats tested following a long delay after extinction alone. Additionally, extinction in multiple contexts and a massive extinction treatment each attenuated the strong return of fear produced by a delayed context shift. Moreover, the conjoint action of these treatments was significantly more successful in preventing the reappearance of extinguished fear, suggesting that extensive cue exposure administered in several different therapeutic settings has the potential to reduce relapse after therapy for anxiety disorders, more than either manipulation alone. PMID:23611075

Enhancing dopaminergic signaling and histone acetylation promotes long-term rescue of deficient fear extinction.

PubMed

Whittle, N; Maurer, V; Murphy, C; Rainer, J; Bindreither, D; Hauschild, M; Scharinger, A; Oberhauser, M; Keil, T; Brehm, C; Valovka, T; Striessnig, J; Singewald, N

2016-12-06

Extinction-based exposure therapy is used to treat anxiety- and trauma-related disorders; however, there is the need to improve its limited efficacy in individuals with impaired fear extinction learning and to promote greater protection against return-of-fear phenomena. Here, using 129S1/SvImJ mice, which display impaired fear extinction acquisition and extinction consolidation, we revealed that persistent and context-independent rescue of deficient fear extinction in these mice was associated with enhanced expression of dopamine-related genes, such as dopamine D1 (Drd1a) and -D2 (Drd2) receptor genes in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and amygdala, but not hippocampus. Moreover, enhanced histone acetylation was observed in the promoter of the extinction-regulated Drd2 gene in the mPFC, revealing a potential gene-regulatory mechanism. Although enhancing histone acetylation, via administering the histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitor MS-275, does not induce fear reduction during extinction training, it promoted enduring and context-independent rescue of deficient fear extinction consolidation/retrieval once extinction learning was initiated as shown following a mild conditioning protocol. This was associated with enhanced histone acetylation in neurons of the mPFC and amygdala. Finally, as a proof-of-principle, mimicking enhanced dopaminergic signaling by L-dopa treatment rescued deficient fear extinction and co-administration of MS-275 rendered this effect enduring and context-independent. In summary, current data reveal that combining dopaminergic and epigenetic mechanisms is a promising strategy to improve exposure-based behavior therapy in extinction-impaired individuals by initiating the formation of an enduring and context-independent fear-inhibitory memory.

Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change

Treesearch

Mark W. Schwartz; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Raymond J. O' Connor; Raymond J. O' Connor

2006-01-01

Widespread extinction is a predicted ecological consequence of global warming. Extinction risk under climate change scenarios is a function of distribution breadth. Focusing on trees and birds of the eastern United States, we used joint climate and environment models to examine fit and climate change vulnerability as a function of distribution breadth. We found that...

Associative learning versus fear habituation as predictors of long-term extinction retention.

PubMed

Brown, Lily A; LeBeau, Richard T; Chat, Ka Yi; Craske, Michelle G

2017-06-01

Violation of unconditioned stimulus (US) expectancy during extinction training may enhance associative learning and result in improved long-term extinction retention compared to within-session habituation. This experiment examines variation in US expectancy (i.e., expectancy violation) as a predictor of long-term extinction retention. It also examines within-session habituation of fear-potentiated startle (electromyography, EMG) and fear of conditioned stimuli (CS) throughout extinction training as predictors of extinction retention. Participants (n = 63) underwent fear conditioning, extinction and retention and provided continuous ratings of US expectancy and EMG, as well as CS fear ratings before and after each phase. Variation in US expectancy throughout extinction and habituation of EMG and fear was entered into a regression as predictors of retention and reinstatement of levels of expectancy and fear. Greater variation in US expectancy throughout extinction training was significantly predictive of enhanced extinction performance measured at retention test, although not after reinstatement test. Slope of EMG and CS fear during extinction did not predict retention of extinction. Within-session habituation of EMG and self-reported fear is not sufficient for long-term retention of extinction learning, and models emphasizing expectation violation may result in enhanced outcomes.

Stress before extinction learning enhances and generalizes extinction memory in a predictive learning task.

PubMed

Meir Drexler, Shira; Hamacher-Dang, Tanja C; Wolf, Oliver T

2017-05-01

In extinction learning, the individual learns that a previously acquired association (e.g. between a threat and its predictor) is no longer valid. This learning is the principle underlying many cognitive-behavioral psychotherapeutic treatments, e.g. 'exposure therapy'. However, extinction is often highly-context dependent, leading to renewal (relapse of extinguished conditioned response following context change). We have previously shown that post-extinction stress leads to a more context-dependent extinction memory in a predictive learning task. Yet as stress prior to learning can impair the integration of contextual cues, here we aim to create a more generalized extinction memory by inducing stress prior to extinction. Forty-nine men and women learned the associations between stimuli and outcomes in a predictive learning task (day 1), extinguished them shortly after an exposure to a stress/control condition (day 2), and were tested for renewal (day 3). No group differences were seen in acquisition and extinction learning, and a renewal effect was present in both groups. However, the groups differed in the strength and context-dependency of the extinction memory. Compared to the control group, the stress group showed an overall reduced recovery of responding to the extinguished stimuli, in particular in the acquisition context. These results, together with our previous findings, demonstrate that the effects of stress exposure on extinction memory depend on its timing. While post-extinction stress makes the memory more context-bound, pre-extinction stress strengthens its consolidation for the acquisition context as well, making it potentially more resistant to relapse. These results have implications for the use of glucocorticoids as extinction-enhancers in exposure therapy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Resting-state functional connectivity between amygdala and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex following fear reminder predicts fear extinction

PubMed Central

Feng, Pan; Zheng, Yong

2016-01-01

Investigations of fear conditioning have elucidated the neural mechanisms of fear acquisition, consolidation and extinction, but it is not clear how the neural activation following fear reminder influence the following extinction. To address this question, we measured human brain activity following fear reminder using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging, and investigated whether the extinction effect can be predicted by resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC). Behaviorally, we found no significant differences of fear ratings between the reminder group and the no reminder group at the fear acquisition and extinction stages, but spontaneous recovery during re-extinction stage appeared only in the no reminder group. Imaging data showed that functional connectivity between ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and amygdala in the reminder group was greater than that in the no reminder group after fear memory reactivation. More importantly, the functional connectivity between amygdala and vmPFC of the reminder group after fear memory reactivation was positively correlated with extinction effect. These results suggest RSFC between amygdala and the vmPFC following fear reminder can predict fear extinction, which provide important insight into the neural mechanisms of fear memory after fear memory reactivation. PMID:27013104

Evaluation of light penetration on Navigation Pools 8 and 13 of the Upper Mississippi River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Giblin, Shawn; Hoff, Kraig; Fischer, Jim; Dukerschein, Terry

2010-01-01

The availability of light can have a dramatic affect on macrophyte and phytoplankton abundance in virtually all aquatic ecosystems. The Long Term Resource Monitoring Program and other monitoring programs often measure factors that affect light extinction (nonvolatile suspended solids, volatile suspended solids, and chlorophyll) and correlates of light extinction (turbidity and Secchi depth), but rarely do they directly measure light extinction. Data on light extinction, Secchi depth, transparency tube, turbidity, total suspended solids, and volatile suspended solids were collected during summer 2003 on Pools 8 and 13 of the Upper Mississippi River. Regressions were developed to predict light extinction based upon Secchi depth, transparency tube, turbidity, and total suspended solids. Transparency tube, Secchi depth, and turbidity all showed strong relations with light extinction and can effectively predict light extinction. Total suspended solids did not show as strong a relation to light extinction. Volatile suspended solids had a greater affect on light extinction than nonvolatile suspended solids. The data were compared to recommended criteria established for light extinction, Secchi depth, total suspended solids, and turbidity by the Upper Mississippi River Conservation Committee to sustain submersed aquatic vegetation in the Upper Mississippi River. During the study period, the average condition in Pool 8 met or exceeded all of the criteria whereas the average condition in Pool 13 failed to meet any of the criteria. This report provides river managers with an effective tool to predict light extinction based upon readily available data.

When Local Extinction and Colonization of River Fishes Can Be Predicted by Regional Occupancy: the Role of Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Bergerot, Benjamin; Hugueny, Bernard; Belliard, Jérôme

2013-01-01

Background Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known. Methods And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales. Conclusions In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales. PMID:24367636

When local extinction and colonization of river fishes can be predicted by regional occupancy: the role of spatial scales.

PubMed

Bergerot, Benjamin; Hugueny, Bernard; Belliard, Jérôme

2013-01-01

Predicting which species are likely to go extinct is perhaps one of the most fundamental yet challenging tasks for conservation biologists. This is particularly relevant for freshwater ecosystems which tend to have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction. According to metapopulation theories, local extinction and colonization rates of freshwater subpopulations can depend on the degree of regional occupancy, notably due to rescue effects. However, relationships between extinction, colonization, regional occupancy and the spatial scales at which they operate are currently poorly known. And Findings: We used a large dataset of freshwater fish annual censuses in 325 stream reaches to analyse how annual extinction/colonization rates of subpopulations depend on the regional occupancy of species. For this purpose, we modelled the regional occupancy of 34 fish species over the whole French river network and we tested how extinction/colonization rates could be predicted by regional occupancy described at five nested spatial scales. Results show that extinction and colonization rates depend on regional occupancy, revealing existence a rescue effect. We also find that these effects are scale dependent and their absolute contribution to colonization and extinction tends to decrease from river section to larger basin scales. In terms of management, we show that regional occupancy quantification allows the evaluation of local species extinction/colonization dynamics and reduction of local extinction risks for freshwater fish species implies the preservation of suitable habitats at both local and drainage basin scales.

Predicting extinction debt from community patterns.

PubMed

Kitzes, Justin; Harte, John

2015-08-01

A significant challenge in both measuring and predicting species extinction rates at global and local scales is the possibility of extinction debt, time-delayed extinctions that occur gradually following an initial impact. Here we examine how relative abundance distributions and spatial aggregation combine to influence the likely magnitude of future extinction debt following habitat loss or climate-driven range contraction. Our analysis is based on several fundamental premises regarding abundance distributions, most importantly that species abundances immediately following habitat loss are a sample from an initial relative abundance distribution and that the long-term, steady-state form of the species abundance distribution is a property of the biology of a community and not of area. Under these two hypotheses, the results show that communities following canonical lognormal and broken-stick abundance distributions are prone to exhibit extinction debt, especially when species exhibit low spatial aggregation. Conversely, communities following a logseries distribution with a constant Fisher's α parameter never demonstrate extinction debt and often show an "immigration credit," in which species richness rises in the long term following an initial decrease. An illustration of these findings in 25 biodiversity hotspots suggests a negligible immediate extinction rate for bird communities and eventual extinction debts of 30-50% of initial species richness, whereas plant communities are predicted to immediately lose 5-15% of species without subsequent extinction debt. These results shed light on the basic determinants of extinction debt and provide initial indications of the magnitude of likely debts in landscapes where few empirical data are available.

Climate change, species-area curves and the extinction crisis.

PubMed

Lewis, Owen T

2006-01-29

An article published in the journal Nature in January 2004-in which an international team of biologists predicted that climate change would, by 2050, doom 15-37% of the earth's species to extinction-attracted unprecedented, worldwide media attention. The predictions conflict with the conventional wisdom that habitat change and modification are the most important causes of current and future extinctions. The new extinction projections come from applying a well-known ecological pattern, the species-area relationship (SAR), to data on the current distributions and climatic requirements of 1103 species. Here, I examine the scientific basis to the claims made in the Nature article. I first highlight the potential and pitfalls of using the SAR to predict extinctions in general. I then consider the additional complications that arise when applying SAR methods specifically to climate change. I assess the extent to which these issues call into question predictions of extinctions from climate change relative to other human impacts, and highlight a danger that conservation resources will be directed away from attempts to slow and mitigate the continuing effects of habitat destruction and degradation, particularly in the tropics. I suggest that the most useful contributions of ecologists over the coming decades will be in partitioning likely extinctions among interacting causes and identifying the practical means to slow the rate of species loss.

Context Switch Effects on Acquisition and Extinction in Human Predictive Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosas, Juan M.; Callejas-Aguilera, Jose E.

2006-01-01

Four experiments tested context switch effects on acquisition and extinction in human predictive learning. A context switch impaired probability judgments about a cue-outcome relationship when the cue was trained in a context in which a different cue underwent extinction. The context switch also impaired judgments about a cue trained in a context…

A phosphodiesterase 4-controlled switch between memory extinction and strengthening in the hippocampus

PubMed Central

Roesler, Rafael; Reolon, Gustavo K.; Maurmann, Natasha; Schwartsmann, Gilberto; Schröder, Nadja; Amaral, Olavo B.; Valvassori, Samira; Quevedo, João

2014-01-01

Established fear-related memories can undergo phenomena such as extinction or reconsolidation when recalled. Extinction probably involves the creation of a new, competing memory trace that decreases fear expression, whereas reconsolidation can mediate memory maintenance, updating, or strengthening. The factors determining whether retrieval will initiate extinction, reconsolidation, or neither of these two processes include training intensity, duration of the retrieval session, and age of the memory. However, previous studies have not shown that the same behavioral protocol can be used to induce either extinction or reconsolidation and strengthening, depending on the pharmacological intervention used. Here we show that, within an experiment that leads to extinction in control rats, memory can be strengthened if rolipram, a selective inhibitor of phosphodiesterase type 4 (PDE4), is administered into the dorsal hippocampus immediately after retrieval. The memory-enhancing effect of rolipram lasted for at least 1 week, was blocked by the protein synthesis inhibitor anisomycin, and did not occur when drug administration was not paired with retrieval. These findings indicate that the behavioral outcome of memory retrieval can be pharmacologically switched from extinction to strengthening. The cAMP/protein kinase A (PKA) signaling pathway might be a crucial mechanism determining the fate of memories after recall. PMID:24672454

Enhancing dopaminergic signaling and histone acetylation promotes long-term rescue of deficient fear extinction

PubMed Central

Whittle, N; Maurer, V; Murphy, C; Rainer, J; Bindreither, D; Hauschild, M; Scharinger, A; Oberhauser, M; Keil, T; Brehm, C; Valovka, T; Striessnig, J; Singewald, N

2016-01-01

Extinction-based exposure therapy is used to treat anxiety- and trauma-related disorders; however, there is the need to improve its limited efficacy in individuals with impaired fear extinction learning and to promote greater protection against return-of-fear phenomena. Here, using 129S1/SvImJ mice, which display impaired fear extinction acquisition and extinction consolidation, we revealed that persistent and context-independent rescue of deficient fear extinction in these mice was associated with enhanced expression of dopamine-related genes, such as dopamine D1 (Drd1a) and -D2 (Drd2) receptor genes in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and amygdala, but not hippocampus. Moreover, enhanced histone acetylation was observed in the promoter of the extinction-regulated Drd2 gene in the mPFC, revealing a potential gene-regulatory mechanism. Although enhancing histone acetylation, via administering the histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitor MS-275, does not induce fear reduction during extinction training, it promoted enduring and context-independent rescue of deficient fear extinction consolidation/retrieval once extinction learning was initiated as shown following a mild conditioning protocol. This was associated with enhanced histone acetylation in neurons of the mPFC and amygdala. Finally, as a proof-of-principle, mimicking enhanced dopaminergic signaling by L-dopa treatment rescued deficient fear extinction and co-administration of MS-275 rendered this effect enduring and context-independent. In summary, current data reveal that combining dopaminergic and epigenetic mechanisms is a promising strategy to improve exposure-based behavior therapy in extinction-impaired individuals by initiating the formation of an enduring and context-independent fear-inhibitory memory. PMID:27922638

Sexual selection affects local extinction and turnover in bird communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doherty, P.F.; Sorci, G.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Boulinier, T.

2003-01-01

Predicting extinction risks has become a central goal for conservation and evolutionary biologists interested in population and community dynamics. Several factors have been put forward to explain risks of extinction, including ecological and life history characteristics of individuals. For instance, factors that affect the balance between natality and mortality can have profound effects on population persistence. Sexual selection has been identified as one such factor. Populations under strong sexual selection experience a number of costs ranging from increased predation and parasitism to enhanced sensitivity to environmental and demographic stochasticity. These findings have led to the prediction that local extinction rates should be higher for species/populations with intense sexual selection. We tested this prediction by analyzing the dynamics of natural bird communities at a continental scale over a period of 21 years (1975-1996), using relevant statistical tools. In agreement with the theoretical prediction, we found that sexual selection increased risks of local extinction (dichromatic birds had on average a 23% higher local extinction rate than monochromatic species). However, despite higher local extinction probabilities, the number of dichromatic species did not decrease over the period considered in this study. This pattern was caused by higher local turnover rates of dichromatic species, resulting in relatively stable communities for both groups of species. Our results suggest that these communities function as metacommunities, with frequent local extinctions followed by colonization. Anthropogenic factors impeding dispersal might therefore have a significant impact on the global persistence of sexually selected species.

An instance theory of associative learning.

PubMed

Jamieson, Randall K; Crump, Matthew J C; Hannah, Samuel D

2012-03-01

We present and test an instance model of associative learning. The model, Minerva-AL, treats associative learning as cued recall. Memory preserves the events of individual trials in separate traces. A probe presented to memory contacts all traces in parallel and retrieves a weighted sum of the traces, a structure called the echo. Learning of a cue-outcome relationship is measured by the cue's ability to retrieve a target outcome. The theory predicts a number of associative learning phenomena, including acquisition, extinction, reacquisition, conditioned inhibition, external inhibition, latent inhibition, discrimination, generalization, blocking, overshadowing, overexpectation, superconditioning, recovery from blocking, recovery from overshadowing, recovery from overexpectation, backward blocking, backward conditioned inhibition, and second-order retrospective revaluation. We argue that associative learning is consistent with an instance-based approach to learning and memory.

Lean Limit Phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Law, C. K.

1983-01-01

The influence of stretch and preferential diffusion on premixed flame extinction and stability was investigated via two model flame configurations, namely the stagnation flame and the bunsen flame. Using a counterflow burner and a stagnation flow burner with a water-cooled wall, the effect of downstream heat loss on the extinction of a stretched premixed flame investigated for lean and rich propane/air and methane/air mixtures. It was demonstrated that extinction by stretch alone is possible only when the deficient reactant is the less mobile one. When it is the more mobile one, downstream heat loss or incomplete reaction is also needed to achieve extinction. The local extinction of bunsen flame tips and edges of hydrocarbon/air premixtures was investigated using a variety of burners. Results show that, while for both rich propane/air and butane/air mixtures tip opening occurs at a constant fuel equivalence ratio of 1.44 and is therefore independent of the intensity, uniformity, and configuration of the approach flow, for rich methane/air flames burning is intensified at the tip and therefore opening is not possible.

Direct and indirect effects of biological factors on extinction risk in fossil bivalves.

PubMed

Harnik, Paul G

2011-08-16

Biological factors, such as abundance and body size, may contribute directly to extinction risk and indirectly through their influence on other biological characteristics, such as geographic range size. Paleontological data can be used to explicitly test many of these hypothesized relationships, and general patterns revealed through analysis of the fossil record can help refine predictive models of extinction risk developed for extant species. Here, I use structural equation modeling to tease apart the contributions of three canonical predictors of extinction--abundance, body size, and geographic range size--to the duration of bivalve species in the early Cenozoic marine fossil record of the eastern United States. I find that geographic range size has a strong direct effect on extinction risk and that an apparent direct effect of abundance can be explained entirely by its covariation with geographic range. The influence of geographic range on extinction risk is manifest across three ecologically disparate bivalve clades. Body size also has strong direct effects on extinction risk but operates in opposing directions in different clades, and thus, it seems to be decoupled from extinction risk in bivalves as a whole. Although abundance does not directly predict extinction risk, I reveal weak indirect effects of both abundance and body size through their positive influence on geographic range size. Multivariate models that account for the pervasive covariation between biological factors and extinction are necessary for assessing causality in evolutionary processes and making informed predictions in applied conservation efforts.

Evaluation of Two Approaches to Defining Extinction Risk under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

PubMed

Thompson, Grant G; Maguire, Lynn A; Regan, Tracey J

2018-05-01

The predominant definition of extinction risk in conservation biology involves evaluating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of extinction time at a particular point (the "time horizon"). Using the principles of decision theory, this article develops an alternative definition of extinction risk as the expected loss (EL) to society resulting from eventual extinction of a species. Distinct roles are identified for time preference and risk aversion. Ranges of tentative values for the parameters of the two approaches are proposed, and the performances of the two approaches are compared and contrasted for a small set of real-world species with published extinction time distributions and a large set of hypothetical extinction time distributions. Potential issues with each approach are evaluated, and the EL approach is recommended as the better of the two. The CDF approach suffers from the fact that extinctions that occur at any time before the specified time horizon are weighted equally, while extinctions that occur beyond the specified time horizon receive no weight at all. It also suffers from the fact that the time horizon does not correspond to any natural phenomenon, and so is impossible to specify nonarbitrarily; yet the results can depend critically on the specified value. In contrast, the EL approach has the advantage of weighting extinction time continuously, with no artificial time horizon, and the parameters of the approach (the rates of time preference and risk aversion) do correspond to natural phenomena, and so can be specified nonarbitrarily. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Resting-state functional connectivity between amygdala and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex following fear reminder predicts fear extinction.

PubMed

Feng, Pan; Zheng, Yong; Feng, Tingyong

2016-06-01

Investigations of fear conditioning have elucidated the neural mechanisms of fear acquisition, consolidation and extinction, but it is not clear how the neural activation following fear reminder influence the following extinction. To address this question, we measured human brain activity following fear reminder using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging, and investigated whether the extinction effect can be predicted by resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC). Behaviorally, we found no significant differences of fear ratings between the reminder group and the no reminder group at the fear acquisition and extinction stages, but spontaneous recovery during re-extinction stage appeared only in the no reminder group. Imaging data showed that functional connectivity between ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and amygdala in the reminder group was greater than that in the no reminder group after fear memory reactivation. More importantly, the functional connectivity between amygdala and vmPFC of the reminder group after fear memory reactivation was positively correlated with extinction effect. These results suggest RSFC between amygdala and the vmPFC following fear reminder can predict fear extinction, which provide important insight into the neural mechanisms of fear memory after fear memory reactivation. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Conditional dissipation of scalars in homogeneous turbulence: Closure for MMC modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wandel, Andrew P.

2013-08-01

While the mean and unconditional variance are to be predicted well by any reasonable turbulent combustion model, these are generally not sufficient for the accurate modelling of complex phenomena such as extinction/reignition. An additional criterion has been recently introduced: accurate modelling of the dissipation timescales associated with fluctuations of scalars about their conditional mean (conditional dissipation timescales). Analysis of Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) results for a passive scalar shows that the conditional dissipation timescale is of the order of the integral timescale and smaller than the unconditional dissipation timescale. A model is proposed: the conditional dissipation timescale is proportional to the integral timescale. This model is used in Multiple Mapping Conditioning (MMC) modelling for a passive scalar case and a reactive scalar case, comparing to DNS results for both. The results show that this model improves the accuracy of MMC predictions so as to match the DNS results more closely using a relatively-coarse spatial resolution compared to other turbulent combustion models.

Extinctions. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans.

PubMed

Finnegan, Seth; Anderson, Sean C; Harnik, Paul G; Simpson, Carl; Tittensor, Derek P; Byrnes, Jarrett E; Finkel, Zoe V; Lindberg, David R; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Lockwood, Rowan; Lotze, Heike K; McClain, Craig R; McGuire, Jenny L; O'Dea, Aaron; Pandolfi, John M

2015-05-01

Marine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk-extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models-for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Extinctions in ancient and modern seas.

PubMed

Harnik, Paul G; Lotze, Heike K; Anderson, Sean C; Finkel, Zoe V; Finnegan, Seth; Lindberg, David R; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Lockwood, Rowan; McClain, Craig R; McGuire, Jenny L; O'Dea, Aaron; Pandolfi, John M; Simpson, Carl; Tittensor, Derek P

2012-11-01

In the coming century, life in the ocean will be confronted with a suite of environmental conditions that have no analog in human history. Thus, there is an urgent need to determine which marine species will adapt and which will go extinct. Here, we review the growing literature on marine extinctions and extinction risk in the fossil, historical, and modern records to compare the patterns, drivers, and biological correlates of marine extinctions at different times in the past. Characterized by markedly different environmental states, some past periods share common features with predicted future scenarios. We highlight how the different records can be integrated to better understand and predict the impact of current and projected future environmental changes on extinction risk in the ocean. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finnegan, Seth; Anderson, Sean C.; Harnik, Paul G.; Simpson, Carl; Tittensor, Derek P.; Byrnes, Jarrett E.; Finkel, Zoe V.; Lindberg, David R.; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Lockwood, Rowan; Lotze, Heike K.; McClain, Craig R.; McGuire, Jenny L.; O'Dea, Aaron; Pandolfi, John M.

2015-05-01

Marine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk—extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models—for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity.

Enhanced extinction of cocaine seeking in brain-derived neurotrophic factor Val66Met knock-in mice.

PubMed

Briand, Lisa A; Lee, Francis S; Blendy, Julie A; Pierce, R Christopher

2012-03-01

The Val66Met polymorphism in the brain-derived neurotropic factor (BDNF) gene results in alterations in fear extinction behavior in both human populations and mouse models. However, it is not clear whether this polymorphism plays a similar role in extinction of appetitive behaviors. Therefore, we examined operant learning and extinction of both food and cocaine self-administration behavior in an inbred genetic knock-in mouse strain expressing the variant Bdnf. These mice provide a unique opportunity to relate alterations in aversive and appetitive extinction learning as well as provide insight into how human genetic variation can lead to differences in behavior. BDNF(Met/Met) mice exhibited a severe deficit in operant learning as demonstrated by an inability to learn the food self-administration task. Therefore, extinction experiments were performed comparing wildtype (BDNF(Val/Val) ) animals to mice heterozygous for the Met allele (BDNF(Val/Met) ), which did not differ in food or cocaine self-administration behavior. In contrast to the deficit in fear extinction previously demonstrated in these mice, we found that BDNF(Val/Met) mice exhibited more rapid extinction of cocaine responding compared to wildtype mice. No differences were found between the genotypes in the extinction of food self-administration behavior or the reinstatement of cocaine seeking, indicating that the effect is specific to extinction of cocaine responding. These results suggest that the molecular mechanisms underlying aversive and appetitive extinction are distinct from one another and BDNF may play opposing roles in the two phenomena. © 2012 The Authors. European Journal of Neuroscience © 2012 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Performance factors in associative learning: assessment of the sometimes competing retrieval model.

PubMed

Witnauer, James E; Wojick, Brittany M; Polack, Cody W; Miller, Ralph R

2012-09-01

Previous simulations revealed that the sometimes competing retrieval model (SOCR; Stout & Miller, Psychological Review, 114, 759-783, 2007), which assumes local error reduction, can explain many cue interaction phenomena that elude traditional associative theories based on total error reduction. Here, we applied SOCR to a new set of Pavlovian phenomena. Simulations used a single set of fixed parameters to simulate each basic effect (e.g., blocking) and, for specific experiments using different procedures, used fitted parameters discovered through hill climbing. In simulation 1, SOCR was successfully applied to basic acquisition, including the overtraining effect, which is context dependent. In simulation 2, we applied SOCR to basic extinction and renewal. SOCR anticipated these effects with both fixed parameters and best-fitting parameters, although the renewal effects were weaker than those observed in some experiments. In simulation 3a, feature-negative training was simulated, including the often observed transition from second-order conditioning to conditioned inhibition. In simulation 3b, SOCR predicted the observation that conditioned inhibition after feature-negative and differential conditioning depends on intertrial interval. In simulation 3c, SOCR successfully predicted failure of conditioned inhibition to extinguish with presentations of the inhibitor alone under most circumstances. In simulation 4, cue competition, including blocking (4a), recovery from relative validity (4b), and unblocking (4c), was simulated. In simulation 5, SOCR correctly predicted that inhibitors gain more behavioral control than do excitors when they are trained in compound. Simulation 6 demonstrated that SOCR explains the slower acquisition observed following CS-weak shock pairings.

Towards a better preclinical model of PTSD: characterizing animals with weak extinction, maladaptive stress responses and low plasma corticosterone.

PubMed

Reznikov, Roman; Diwan, Mustansir; Nobrega, José N; Hamani, Clement

2015-02-01

Most of the available preclinical models of PTSD have focused on isolated behavioural aspects and have not considered individual variations in response to stress. We employed behavioural criteria to identify and characterize a subpopulation of rats that present several features analogous to PTSD-like states after exposure to classical fear conditioning. Outbred Sprague-Dawley rats were segregated into weak- and strong-extinction groups on the basis of behavioural scores during extinction of conditioned fear responses. Animals were subsequently tested for anxiety-like behaviour in the open-field test (OFT), novelty suppressed feeding (NSF) and elevated plus maze (EPM). Baseline plasma corticosterone was measured prior to any behavioural manipulation. In a second experiment, rats underwent OFT, NSF and EPM prior to being subjected to fear conditioning to ascertain whether or not pre-stress levels of anxiety-like behaviours could predict extinction scores. We found that 25% of rats exhibit low extinction rates of conditioned fear, a feature that was associated with increased anxiety-like behaviour across multiple tests in comparison to rats showing strong extinction. In addition, weak-extinction animals showed low levels of corticosterone prior to fear conditioning, a variable that seemed to predict extinction recall scores. In a separate experiment, anxiety measures taken prior to fear conditioning were not predictive of a weak-extinction phenotype, suggesting that weak-extinction animals do not show detectable traits of anxiety in the absence of a stressful experience. These findings suggest that extinction impairment may be used to identify stress-vulnerable rats, thus providing a useful model for elucidating mechanisms and investigating potential treatments for PTSD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

d-Cycloserine reduces context specificity of sexual extinction learning.

PubMed

Brom, Mirte; Laan, Ellen; Everaerd, Walter; Spinhoven, Philip; Trimbos, Baptist; Both, Stephanie

2015-11-01

d-Cycloserine (DCS) enhances extinction processes in animals. Although classical conditioning is hypothesized to play a pivotal role in the aetiology of appetitive motivation problems, no research has been conducted on the effect of DCS on the reduction of context specificity of extinction in human appetitive learning, while facilitation hereof is relevant in the context of treatment of problematic reward-seeking behaviors. Female participants were presented with two conditioned stimuli (CSs) that either predicted (CS+) or did not predict (CS-) a potential sexual reward (unconditioned stimulus (US); genital vibrostimulation). Conditioning took place in context A and extinction in context B. Subjects received DCS (125mg) or placebo directly after the experiment on day 1 in a randomized, double-blind, between-subject fashion (Placebo n=31; DCS n=31). Subsequent testing for CS-evoked conditioned responses (CRs) in both the conditioning (A) and the extinction context (B) took place 24h later on day 2. Drug effects on consolidation were then assessed by comparing the recall of sexual extinction memories between the DCS and the placebo groups. Post learning administration of DCS facilitates sexual extinction memory consolidation and affects extinction's fundamental context specificity, evidenced by reduced conditioned genital and subjective sexual responses, relative to placebo, for presentations of the reward predicting cue 24h later outside the extinction context. DCS makes appetitive extinction memories context-independent and prevents the return of conditioned response. NMDA receptor glycine site agonists may be potential pharmacotherapies for the prevention of relapse of appetitive motivation disorders with a learned component. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Direct and indirect effects of biological factors on extinction risk in fossil bivalves

PubMed Central

Harnik, Paul G.

2011-01-01

Biological factors, such as abundance and body size, may contribute directly to extinction risk and indirectly through their influence on other biological characteristics, such as geographic range size. Paleontological data can be used to explicitly test many of these hypothesized relationships, and general patterns revealed through analysis of the fossil record can help refine predictive models of extinction risk developed for extant species. Here, I use structural equation modeling to tease apart the contributions of three canonical predictors of extinction—abundance, body size, and geographic range size—to the duration of bivalve species in the early Cenozoic marine fossil record of the eastern United States. I find that geographic range size has a strong direct effect on extinction risk and that an apparent direct effect of abundance can be explained entirely by its covariation with geographic range. The influence of geographic range on extinction risk is manifest across three ecologically disparate bivalve clades. Body size also has strong direct effects on extinction risk but operates in opposing directions in different clades, and thus, it seems to be decoupled from extinction risk in bivalves as a whole. Although abundance does not directly predict extinction risk, I reveal weak indirect effects of both abundance and body size through their positive influence on geographic range size. Multivariate models that account for the pervasive covariation between biological factors and extinction are necessary for assessing causality in evolutionary processes and making informed predictions in applied conservation efforts. PMID:21808004

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-01-01

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an ‘extinction window’ of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the ‘extinction window’, although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. PMID:24920116

Acoustic startle response in rats predicts inter-individual variation in fear extinction.

PubMed

Russo, Amanda S; Parsons, Ryan G

2017-03-01

Although a large portion of the population is exposed to a traumatic event at some point, only a small percentage of the population develops post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), suggesting the presence of predisposing factors. Abnormal acoustic startle response (ASR) has been shown to be associated with PTSD, implicating it as a potential predictor of the development of PTSD-like behavior. Since poor extinction and retention of extinction learning are characteristic of PTSD patients, it is of interest to determine if abnormal ASR is predictive of development of such deficits. To determine whether baseline ASR has utility in predicting the development of PTSD-like behavior, the relationship between baseline ASR and freezing behavior following Pavlovian fear conditioning was examined in a group of adult, male Sprague-Dawley rats. Baseline acoustic startle response (ASR) was assessed preceding exposure to a Pavlovian fear conditioning paradigm where freezing behavior was measured during fear conditioning, extinction training, and extinction testing. Although there was no relationship between baseline ASR and fear memory following conditioning, rats with low baseline ASR had significantly lower magnitude of retention of the extinction memory than rats with high baseline ASR. The results suggest that baseline ASR has value as a predictive index of the development of a PTSD-like phenotype. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

PubMed Central

Purvis, Andy; Sechrest, Wes; Gittleman, John L; Bielby, Jon; Mace, Georgina M

2004-01-01

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future. PMID:15252445

Dynamics of Droplet Extinction in Slow Convective Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nayagam, V.; Haggard, J. B., Jr.; Williams, F. A.

1999-01-01

The classical model for droplet combustion predicts that the square of the droplet diameter decreases linearly with time. It also predicts that a droplet of any size will burn to completion over a period of time. However, it has been known for some time that under certain conditions flames surrounding a droplet, in a quiescent environment, could extinguish because of insufficient residence time for the chemistry to proceed to completion. This type of extinction that occurs for smaller droplets has been studied extensively in the past. Large droplets, on the other hand, exhibit a different type of extinction where excessive radiative heat loss from the flame zone leads to extinction. This mode of "radiative extinction" was theoretically predicted for droplet burning by Chao et al. and was observed in recent space experiments in a quiescent environment. Thus far, the fundamental flammability limit prescribed by radiative extinction of liquid droplets has been measured only under quiescent environmental conditions. In many space platforms, however, ventilation systems produce small convective flows and understanding of the influences of this convection on the extinction process will help better define the radiative extinction flammability boundaries. Boundaries defined by experiments and captured using theoretical models could provide enhanced fire safety margin in space explor1999063d investigation of convective effects will help in interpretations of burning-rate data obtained during free-floated droplet combustion experiments with small residual velocities.

Learning and the persistence of appetite: extinction and the motivation to eat and overeat.

PubMed

Bouton, Mark E

2011-04-18

The modern world is saturated with highly palatable and highly available food, providing many opportunities to associate food with environmental cues and actions (through Pavlovian and operant or instrumental learning, respectively). Basic learning processes can often increase the tendency to approach and consume food, whereas extinction, in which Pavlovian and operant behaviors decline when the reinforcer is withheld, weakens but does not erase those tendencies. Contemporary research suggests that extinction involves an inhibitory form of new learning that appears fragile because it is highly dependent on the context for expression. These ideas are supported by the phenomena of renewal, spontaneous recovery, resurgence, reinstatement, and rapid reacquisition in appetitive learning, which together may help explain why overeating may be difficult to suppress permanently, and why appetitive behavior may seem so persistent. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Animal models of fear relapse.

PubMed

Goode, Travis D; Maren, Stephen

2014-01-01

Whereas fear memories are rapidly acquired and enduring over time, extinction memories are slow to form and are susceptible to disruption. Consequently, behavioral therapies that involve extinction learning (e.g., exposure therapy) often produce only temporary suppression of fear and anxiety. This review focuses on the factors that are known to influence the relapse of extinguished fear. Several phenomena associated with the return of fear after extinction are discussed, including renewal, spontaneous recovery, reacquisition, and reinstatement. Additionally, this review describes recent work, which has focused on the role of psychological stress in the relapse of extinguished fear. Recent developments in behavioral and pharmacological research are examined in light of treatment of pathological fear in humans. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute for Laboratory Animal Research. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Conservation Risks: When Will Rhinos be Extinct?

PubMed

Haas, Timothy C; Ferreira, Sam M

2016-08-01

We develop a risk intelligence system for biodiversity enterprises. Such enterprises depend on a supply of endangered species for their revenue. Many of these enterprises, however, cannot purchase a supply of this resource and are largely unable to secure the resource against theft in the form of poaching. Because replacements are not available once a species becomes extinct, insurance products are not available to reduce the risk exposure of these enterprises to an extinction event. For many species, the dynamics of anthropogenic impacts driven by economic as well as noneconomic values of associated wildlife products along with their ecological stressors can help meaningfully predict extinction risks. We develop an agent/individual-based economic-ecological model that captures these effects and apply it to the case of South African rhinos. Our model uses observed rhino dynamics and poaching statistics. It seeks to predict rhino extinction under the present scenario. This scenario has no legal horn trade, but allows live African rhino trade and legal hunting. Present rhino populations are small and threatened by a rising onslaught of poaching. This present scenario and associated dynamics predicts continued decline in rhino population size with accelerated extinction risks of rhinos by 2036. Our model supports the computation of extinction risks at any future time point. This capability can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed conservation strategies at reducing a species' extinction risk. Models used to compute risk predictions, however, need to be statistically estimated. We point out that statistically fitting such models to observations will involve massive numbers of observations on consumer behavior and time-stamped location observations on thousands of animals. Finally, we propose Big Data algorithms to perform such estimates and to interpret the fitted model's output.

Pre-trauma individual differences in extinction learning predict posttraumatic stress.

PubMed

Lommen, Miriam J J; Engelhard, Iris M; Sijbrandij, Marit; van den Hout, Marcel A; Hermans, Dirk

2013-02-01

In the aftermath of a traumatic event, many people suffer from psychological distress, but only a minority develops posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Pre-trauma individual differences in fear conditioning, most notably reduced extinction learning, have been proposed as playing an important role in the etiology of PTSD. However, prospective data are lacking. In this study, we prospectively tested whether reduced extinction was a predictor for later posttraumatic stress. Dutch soldiers (N = 249) were administered a conditioning task before their four-month deployment to Afghanistan to asses individual differences in extinction learning. After returning home, posttraumatic stress was measured. Results showed that reduced extinction learning before deployment predicted subsequent PTSD symptom severity, over and beyond degree of pre-deployment stress symptoms, neuroticism, and exposure to stressors on deployment. The findings suggest that reduced extinction learning may play a role in the development of PTSD. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extinction in multiple contexts: Effects on the rate of extinction and the strength of response recovery.

PubMed

Bustamante, Javier; Uengoer, Metin; Thorwart, Anna; Lachnit, Harald

2016-09-01

In two human predictive-learning experiments, we investigated the effects of extinction in multiple contexts on the rate of extinction and the strength of response recovery. In each experiment, participants initially received acquisition training with a target cue in one context, followed by extinction either in a different context (extinction in a single context) or in three different contexts (extinction in multiple contexts). The results of both experiments showed that conducting extinction in multiple contexts led to higher levels of responding during extinction than did extinction in a single context. Additionally, Experiment 2 showed that extinction in multiple contexts prevented ABC renewal but had no detectable impact on ABA renewal. Our results are discussed within the framework of contemporary learning theories of contextual control and extinction.

Theory of invasion extinction dynamics in minimal food webs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haerter, Jan O.; Mitarai, Namiko; Sneppen, Kim

2018-02-01

When food webs are exposed to species invasion, secondary extinction cascades may be set off. Although much work has gone into characterizing the structure of food webs, systematic predictions on their evolutionary dynamics are still scarce. Here we present a theoretical framework that predicts extinctions in terms of an alternating sequence of two basic processes: resource depletion by or competitive exclusion between consumers. We first propose a conceptual invasion extinction model (IEM) involving random fitness coefficients. We bolster this IEM by an analytical, recursive procedure for calculating idealized extinction cascades after any species addition and simulate the long-time evolution. Our procedure describes minimal food webs where each species interacts with only a single resource through the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations. For such food webs ex- tinction cascades are determined uniquely and the system always relaxes to a stable steady state. The dynamics and scale invariant species life time resemble the behavior of the IEM, and correctly predict an upper limit for trophic levels as observed in the field.

Theory of invasion extinction dynamics in minimal food webs.

PubMed

Haerter, Jan O; Mitarai, Namiko; Sneppen, Kim

2018-02-01

When food webs are exposed to species invasion, secondary extinction cascades may be set off. Although much work has gone into characterizing the structure of food webs, systematic predictions on their evolutionary dynamics are still scarce. Here we present a theoretical framework that predicts extinctions in terms of an alternating sequence of two basic processes: resource depletion by or competitive exclusion between consumers. We first propose a conceptual invasion extinction model (IEM) involving random fitness coefficients. We bolster this IEM by an analytical, recursive procedure for calculating idealized extinction cascades after any species addition and simulate the long-time evolution. Our procedure describes minimal food webs where each species interacts with only a single resource through the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations. For such food webs ex- tinction cascades are determined uniquely and the system always relaxes to a stable steady state. The dynamics and scale invariant species life time resemble the behavior of the IEM, and correctly predict an upper limit for trophic levels as observed in the field.

Ray tracing method for simulation of laser beam interaction with random packings of powders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovalev, O. B.; Kovaleva, I. O.; Belyaev, V. V.

2018-03-01

Selective laser sintering is a technology of rapid manufacturing of a free form that is created as a solid object by selectively fusing successive layers of powder using a laser. The motivation of this study is due to the currently insufficient understanding of the processes and phenomena of selective laser melting of powders whose time scales differ by orders of magnitude. To construct random packings from mono- and polydispersed solid spheres, the algorithm of their generation based on the discrete element method is used. A numerical method of ray tracing is proposed that is used to simulate the interaction of laser radiation with a random bulk packing of spherical particles and to predict the optical properties of the granular layer, the extinction and absorption coefficients, depending on the optical properties of a powder material.

Stress enhances the consolidation of extinction memory in a predictive learning task

PubMed Central

Hamacher-Dang, Tanja C.; Engler, Harald; Schedlowski, Manfred; Wolf, Oliver T.

2013-01-01

Extinction is not always permanent, as indicated by several types of recovery effects, such as the renewal effect, which may occur after a context change and points towards the importance of contextual cues. Strengthening the retrieval of extinction memory is a crucial aim of extinction-based psychotherapeutic treatments of anxiety disorders to prevent relapse. Stress is known to modulate learning and memory, with mostly enhancing effects on memory consolidation. However, whether such a consolidation-enhancing effect of acute stress can also be found for extinction memory has not yet been examined in humans. In this study, we investigated the effect of stress after extinction learning on the retrieval of extinction memory in a predictive learning renewal paradigm. Participants took the part of being the doctor of a fictitious patient and learned to predict whether certain food stimuli were associated with “stomach trouble” in two different restaurants (contexts). On the first day, critical stimuli were associated with stomach trouble in context A (acquisition phase). On the second day, these associations were extinguished in context B. Directly after extinction, participants were either exposed to a stressor (socially evaluated cold pressor test; n = 22) or a control condition (n = 24). On the third day, we tested retrieval of critical associations in contexts A and B. Participants exposed to stress after extinction exhibited a reduced recovery of responding at test in context B, suggesting that stress may context-dependently enhance the consolidation of extinction memory. Furthermore, the increase in cortisol in response to the stressor was negatively correlated with the recovery of responding in context A. Our findings suggest that in parallel to the known effects of stress on the consolidation of episodic memory, stress also enhances the consolidation of extinction memory, which might be relevant for potential applications in extinction-based psychotherapy. PMID:23986667

In situ visualization for large-scale combustion simulations.

PubMed

Yu, Hongfeng; Wang, Chaoli; Grout, Ray W; Chen, Jacqueline H; Ma, Kwan-Liu

2010-01-01

As scientific supercomputing moves toward petascale and exascale levels, in situ visualization stands out as a scalable way for scientists to view the data their simulations generate. This full picture is crucial particularly for capturing and understanding highly intermittent transient phenomena, such as ignition and extinction events in turbulent combustion.

Environmental trends in extinction during the Paleozoic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sepkoski, J. John, Jr.

1987-01-01

Extinction intensities calculated from 505 Paleozoic marine assemblages divided among six environmental zones and 40 stratigraphic intervals indicate that whole communities exhibit increasing extinction offshore but that genera within individual taxonomic classes tend to have their highest extinction onshore. The offshore trend at the community level results from a concentration of genera in classes with low characteristic extinction rates in nearshore environments. This finding is consistent with the ecologic expectation that organisms inhabiting unpredictably fluctuating environments should suffer more extinction than counterparts living under more predictably equitable conditions.

Evaluating differences in Pavlovian fear acquisition and extinction as predictors of outcome from cognitive behavioural therapy for anxious children.

PubMed

Waters, Allison M; Pine, Daniel S

2016-07-01

Extinction is a key theoretical model of exposure-based treatments, such as cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT). This study examined whether individual differences in physiological responses and subjective stimulus evaluations as indices of fear extinction predicted response to CBT. Thirty-two nonanxious comparisons and 44 anxious, 7-to-13-year-old children completed a Pavlovian conditioning and extinction task. Anxious children then completed group-based CBT. Skin conductance responses (SCRs) as well as subjective arousal and valence evaluations were measured in response to a conditioned stimulus paired with an aversive tone (CS+) and another conditioned stimulus presented alone (CS-). Both stimuli were presented alone during extinction. Diagnostic and symptom measures were completed before and after treatment. Like nonanxious comparisons, treatment responders did not acquire conditioned negative stimulus evaluations and displayed elevated SCRs that declined significantly across extinction trials. Nonresponders, by contrast, showed elevated negative stimulus evaluations of both CSs that were sensitive to extinction trials but showed no change in SCRs during extinction. Change in physiological but not evaluative indices of fear extinction predicted better treatment outcomes. Individual differences in evaluative and physiological indices of fear extinction might moderate response to CBT. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Genetic and phylogenetic consequences of island biogeography.

PubMed

Johnson, K P; Adler, F R; Cherry, J L

2000-04-01

Island biogeography theory predicts that the number of species on an island should increase with island size and decrease with island distance to the mainland. These predictions are generally well supported in comparative and experimental studies. These ecological, equilibrium predictions arise as a result of colonization and extinction processes. Because colonization and extinction are also important processes in evolution, we develop methods to test evolutionary predictions of island biogeography. We derive a population genetic model of island biogeography that incorporates island colonization, migration of individuals from the mainland, and extinction of island populations. The model provides a means of estimating the rates of migration and extinction from population genetic data. This model predicts that within an island population the distribution of genetic divergences with respect to the mainland source population should be bimodal, with much of the divergence dating to the colonization event. Across islands, this model predicts that populations on large islands should be on average more genetically divergent from mainland source populations than those on small islands. Likewise, populations on distant islands should be more divergent than those on close islands. Published observations of a larger proportion of endemic species on large and distant islands support these predictions.

Associative Accounts of Recovery-from-Extinction Effects

PubMed Central

McConnell, Bridget L.; Miller, Ralph R.

2014-01-01

Recovery-from-extinction effects (e.g., spontaneous recovery, renewal, reinstatement, and facilitated reacquisition) have become the focus of much research in recent years. However, despite a great deal of empirical data, there are few theoretical explanations for these effects. This paucity poses a severe limitation on our understanding of these behavioral effects, impedes advances in uncovering neural mechanisms of response recovery, and reduces our potential to prevent relapse after exposure therapy. Towards correcting this oversight, this review takes prominent models of associative learning that have been used in the past and continue to be used today to explain Pavlovian conditioning and extinction, and assesses how each model can be applied to account for recovery-from-extinction effects. The models include the Rescorla-Wagner (1972) model, Mackintosh's (1975) attentional model, Pearce and Hall's (1980) attentional model, Wagner's (1981) SOP model, Pearce's (1987) configural model, McLaren and Mackintosh's (2002) elemental model, and Stout and Miller's (2007) SOCR (comparator hypothesis) model. Each model is assessed for how well it explains or does not explain the various recovery-from-extinction phenomena. We offer some suggestions for how the models might be modified to account for these effects in those instances in which they initially fail. PMID:24707062

Buoyant Low Stretch Diffusion Flames Beneath Cylindrical PMMA Samples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, S. L.; Tien, J. S.

1999-01-01

A unique new way to study low gravity flames in normal gravity has been developed. To study flame structure and extinction characteristics in low stretch environments, a normal gravity low-stretch diffusion flame is generated using a cylindrical PMMA sample of varying large radii. Burning rates, visible flame thickness, visible flame standoff distance, temperature profiles in the solid and gas, and radiative loss from the system were measured. A transition from the blowoff side of the flammability map to the quenching side of the flammability map is observed at approximately 6-7/ sec, as determined by curvefits to the non-monotonic trends in peak temperatures, solid and gas-phase temperature gradients, and non-dimensional standoff distances. A surface energy balance reveals that the fraction of heat transfer from the flame that is lost to in-depth conduction and surface radiation increases with decreasing stretch until quenching extinction is observed. This is primarily due to decreased heat transfer from the flame, while the magnitude of the losses remains the same. A unique local extinction flamelet phenomena and associated pre-extinction oscillations are observed at very low stretch. An ultimate quenching extinction limit is found at low stretch with sufficiently high induced heat losses.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-08-06

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Deepened extinction following compound stimulus presentation: Noradrenergic modulation

PubMed Central

Janak, Patricia H.; Corbit, Laura H.

2011-01-01

Behavioral extinction is an active form of new learning involving the prediction of nonreward where reward has previously been present. The expression of extinction learning can be disrupted by the presentation of reward itself or reward-predictive stimuli (reinstatement) as well as the passage of time (spontaneous recovery) or contextual changes (renewal). The following experiments replicated the demonstration that presenting multiple previously rewarded stimuli in compound during extinction enhances extinction learning. To explore the pharmacological basis for this we next examined the effects of pharmacological treatments that either facilitated or blocked noradrenergic activity to test the hypothesis that increased noradrenergic activity at the time of extinction training would improve, whereas blockade of noradrenergic activity would impair the extinction of appetitive stimulus–reward memories. Different groups of rats were trained in a discriminative stimulus paradigm to lever-press for food reward. Once stable responding was achieved, responding was extinguished for 2 d. Prior to a third extinction session, rats received systemic administration of either saline, yohimbine (α2 antagonist), atomoxetine (norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor), or propranolol (β-receptor antagonist). Spontaneous recovery of responding to the stimuli was tested 4 wk later. Our results indicate that increasing noradrenergic activity during extinction augments extinction learning resulting in less recovery of responding at test. These results have important implications for models of relapse to drug seeking and the development of extinction-based therapies. PMID:21224211

Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

PubMed

Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

2014-11-04

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change

PubMed Central

Dickinson, Maria G.; Orme, C. David L.; Suttle, K. Blake; Mace, Georgina M.

2014-01-01

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk. PMID:25367429

Macroevolutionary Immunology: A Role for Immunity in the Diversification of Animal life

PubMed Central

Loker, Eric S.

2012-01-01

An emerging picture of the nature of immune systems across animal phyla reveals both conservatism of some features and the appearance among and within phyla of novel, lineage-specific defense solutions. The latter collectively represent a major and underappreciated form of animal diversity. Factors influencing this macroevolutionary (above the species level) pattern of novelty are considered and include adoption of different life styles, life histories, and body plans; a general advantage of being distinctive with respect to immune defenses; and the responses required to cope with parasites, many of which afflict hosts in a lineage-specific manner. This large-scale pattern of novelty implies that immunological phenomena can affect microevolutionary processes (at the population level within species) that can eventually lead to macroevolutionary events such as speciation, radiations, or extinctions. Immunologically based phenomena play a role in favoring intraspecific diversification, specialization and host specificity of parasites, and mechanisms are discussed whereby this could lead to parasite speciation. Host switching – the acquisition of new host species by parasites – is a major mechanism that drives parasite diversity and is frequently involved in disease emergence. It is also one that can be favored by reductions in immune competence of new hosts. Mechanisms involving immune phenomena favoring intraspecific diversification and speciation of host species are also discussed. A macroevolutionary perspective on immunology is invaluable in today’s world, including the need to study a broader range of species with distinctive immune systems. Many of these species are faced with extinction, another macroevolutionary process influenced by immune phenomena. PMID:22566909

Design of a Neurally Plausible Model of Fear Learning

PubMed Central

Krasne, Franklin B.; Fanselow, Michael S.; Zelikowsky, Moriel

2011-01-01

A neurally oriented conceptual and computational model of fear conditioning manifested by freezing behavior (FRAT), which accounts for many aspects of delay and context conditioning, has been constructed. Conditioning and extinction are the result of neuromodulation-controlled LTP at synapses of thalamic, cortical, and hippocampal afferents on principal cells and inhibitory interneurons of lateral and basal amygdala. The phenomena accounted for by the model (and simulated by the computational version) include conditioning, secondary reinforcement, blocking, the immediate shock deficit, extinction, renewal, and a range of empirically valid effects of pre- and post-training ablation or inactivation of hippocampus or amygdala nuclei. PMID:21845175

Reminder Cues Modulate the Renewal Effect in Human Predictive Learning

PubMed Central

Bustamante, Javier; Uengoer, Metin; Lachnit, Harald

2016-01-01

Associative learning refers to our ability to learn about regularities in our environment. When a stimulus is repeatedly followed by a specific outcome, we learn to expect the outcome in the presence of the stimulus. We are also able to modify established expectations in the face of disconfirming information (the stimulus is no longer followed by the outcome). Both the change of environmental regularities and the related processes of adaptation are referred to as extinction. However, extinction does not erase the initially acquired expectations. For instance, following successful extinction, the initially learned expectations can recover when there is a context change – a phenomenon called the renewal effect, which is considered as a model for relapse after exposure therapy. Renewal was found to be modulated by reminder cues of acquisition and extinction. However, the mechanisms underlying the effectiveness of reminder cues are not well understood. The aim of the present study was to investigate the impact of reminder cues on renewal in the field of human predictive learning. Experiment I demonstrated that renewal in human predictive learning is modulated by cues related to acquisition or extinction. Initially, participants received pairings of a stimulus and an outcome in one context. These stimulus-outcome pairings were preceded by presentations of a reminder cue (acquisition cue). Then, participants received extinction in a different context in which presentations of the stimulus were no longer followed by the outcome. These extinction trials were preceded by a second reminder cue (extinction cue). During a final phase conducted in a third context, participants showed stronger expectations of the outcome in the presence of the stimulus when testing was accompanied by the acquisition cue compared to the extinction cue. Experiment II tested an explanation of the reminder cue effect in terms of simple cue-outcome associations. Therefore, acquisition and extinction cues were equated for their associative histories in Experiment II, which should abolish their impact on renewal if based on simple cue-outcome associations. In contrast to this prediction, Experiment II replicated the findings from Experiment I indicating that the effectiveness of reminder cues did not require direct reminder cue-outcome associations. PMID:28066293

Rates of movement of threatened bird species between IUCN red list categories and toward extinction.

PubMed

Brooke, M de L; Butchart, S H M; Garnett, S T; Crowley, G M; Mantilla-Beniers, N B; Stattersfield, A J

2008-04-01

In recent centuries bird species have been deteriorating in status and becoming extinct at a rate that may be 2-3 orders of magnitude higher than in prehuman times. We examined extinction rates of bird species designated critically endangered in 1994 and the rate at which species have moved through the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List categories of extinction risk globally for the period 1988-2004 and regionally in Australia from 1750 to 2000. For Australia we drew on historical accounts of the extent and condition of species habitats, spread of invasive species, and changes in sighting frequencies. These data sets permitted comparison of observed rates of movement through the IUCN Red List categories with novel predictions based on the IUCN Red List criterion E, which relates to explicit extinction probabilities determined, for example, by population viability analysis. The comparison also tested whether species listed on the basis of other criteria face a similar probability of moving to a higher threat category as those listed under criterion E. For the rate at which species moved from vulnerable to endangered, there was a good match between observations and predictions, both worldwide and in Australia. Nevertheless, species have become extinct at a rate that, although historically high, is 2 (Australia) to 10 (globally) times lower than predicted. Although the extinction probability associated with the critically endangered category may be too high, the shortfall in realized extinctions can also be attributed to the beneficial impact of conservation intervention. These efforts may have reduced the number of global extinctions from 19 to 3 and substantially slowed the extinction trajectory of 33 additional critically endangered species. Our results suggest that current conservation action benefits species on the brink of extinction, but is less targeted at or has less effect on moderately threatened species.

Behavioral momentum and resurgence: Effects of time in extinction and repeated resurgence tests

PubMed Central

Shahan, Timothy A.

2014-01-01

Resurgence is an increase in a previously extinguished operant response that occurs if an alternative reinforcement introduced during extinction is removed. Shahan and Sweeney (2011) developed a quantitative model of resurgence based on behavioral momentum theory that captures existing data well and predicts that resurgence should decrease as time in extinction and exposure to the alternative reinforcement increases. Two experiments tested this prediction. The data from Experiment 1 suggested that without a return to baseline, resurgence decreases with increased exposure to alternative reinforcement and to extinction of the target response. Experiment 2 tested the predictions of the model across two conditions, one with constant alternative reinforcement for five sessions, and the other with alternative reinforcement removed three times. In both conditions, the alternative reinforcement was removed for the final test session. Experiment 2 again demonstrated a decrease in relapse across repeated resurgence tests. Furthermore, comparably little resurgence was observed at the same time point in extinction in the final test, despite dissimilar previous exposures to alternative reinforcement removal. The quantitative model provided a good description of the observed data in both experiments. More broadly, these data suggest that increased exposure to extinction may be a successful strategy to reduce resurgence. The relationship between these data and existing tests of the effect of time in extinction on resurgence is discussed. PMID:23982985

Soot volume fraction fields in unsteady axis-symmetric flames by continuous laser extinction technique.

PubMed

Kashif, Muhammad; Bonnety, Jérôme; Guibert, Philippe; Morin, Céline; Legros, Guillaume

2012-12-17

A Laser Extinction Method has been set up to provide two-dimensional soot volume fraction field time history at a tunable frequency up to 70 Hz inside an axis-symmetric diffusion flame experiencing slow unsteady phenomena preserving the symmetry. The use of a continuous wave laser as the light source enables this repetition rate, which is an incremental advance in the laser extinction technique. The technique is shown to allow a fine description of the soot volume fraction field in a flickering flame exhibiting a 12.6 Hz flickering phenomenon. Within this range of repetition rate, the technique and its subsequent post-processing require neither any method for time-domain reconstruction nor any correction for energy intrusion. Possibly complemented by such a reconstruction method, the technique should support further soot volume fraction database in oscillating flames that exhibit characteristic times relevant to the current efforts in the validation of soot processes modeling.

Respirable particulate monitoring with remote sensors. (Public health ecology: Air pollution)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Severs, R. K.

1974-01-01

The feasibility of monitoring atmospheric aerosols in the respirable range from air or space platforms was studied. Secondary reflectance targets were located in the industrial area and near Galveston Bay. Multichannel remote sensor data were utilized to calculate the aerosol extinction coefficient and thus determine the aerosol size distribution. Houston Texas air sampling network high volume data were utilized to generate computer isopleth maps of suspended particulates and to establish the mass loading of the atmosphere. In addition, a five channel nephelometer and a multistage particulate air sampler were used to collect data. The extinction coefficient determined from remote sensor data proved more representative of wide areal phenomena than that calculated from on site measurements. It was also demonstrated that a significant reduction in the standard deviation of the extinction coefficient could be achieved by reducing the bandwidths used in remote sensor.

Stochastic modeling of unsteady extinction in turbulent non-premixed combustion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lackmann, T.; Hewson, J. C.; Knaus, R. C.

Turbulent fluctuations of the scalar dissipation rate have a major impact on extinction in non-premixed combustion. Recently, an unsteady extinction criterion has been developed (Hewson, 2013) that predicts extinction dependent on the duration and the magnitude of dissipation rate fluctuations exceeding a critical quenching value; this quantity is referred to as the dissipation impulse. Furthermore, the magnitude of the dissipation impulse corresponding to unsteady extinction is related to the difficulty with which a flamelet is exintguished, based on the steady-state S-curve.

Stochastic modeling of unsteady extinction in turbulent non-premixed combustion

DOE PAGES

Lackmann, T.; Hewson, J. C.; Knaus, R. C.; ...

2016-07-19

Turbulent fluctuations of the scalar dissipation rate have a major impact on extinction in non-premixed combustion. Recently, an unsteady extinction criterion has been developed (Hewson, 2013) that predicts extinction dependent on the duration and the magnitude of dissipation rate fluctuations exceeding a critical quenching value; this quantity is referred to as the dissipation impulse. Furthermore, the magnitude of the dissipation impulse corresponding to unsteady extinction is related to the difficulty with which a flamelet is exintguished, based on the steady-state S-curve.

Active control: an investigation method for combustion instabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poinsot, T.; Yip, B.; Veynante, D.; Trouvé, A.; Samaniego, J. M.; Candel, S.

1992-07-01

Closed-loop active control methods and their application to combustion instabilities are discussed. In these methods the instability development is impeded with a feedback control loop: the signal provided by a sensor monitoring the flame or pressure oscillations is processed and sent back to actuators mounted on the combustor or on the feeding system. Different active control systems tested on a non-premixed multiple-flame turbulent combustor are described. These systems can suppress all unstable plane modes of oscillation (i.e. low frequency modes). The active instability control (AIC) also constitutes an original and powerful technique for studies of mechanisms leading to instability or resulting from the instability. Two basic applications of this kind are described. In the first case the flame is initially controlled with AIC, the feedback loop is then switched off and the growth of the instability is analysed through high speed Schlieren cinematography and simultaneous sound pressure and reaction rate measurements. Three phases are identified during th growth of the oscillations: (1) a linear phase where acoustic waves induce a flapping motion of the flame sheets without interaction between sheets, (2) a modulation phase, where flame sheets interact randomly and (3) a nonlinear phase where the flame sheets are broken and a limit cycle is reached. In the second case we investigate different types of flame extinctions associated with combustion instability. It is shown that pressure oscillations may lead to partial or total extinctions. Extinctions occur in various forms but usually follow a rapid growth of pressure oscillations. The flame is extinguished during the modulation phase observed in the initiation experiments. In these studies devoted to transient instability phenomena, the control system constitutes a unique investigation tool because it is difficult to obtain the same information by other means. Implications for modelling and prediction of combustion instabilities are discussed.

Climate change. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C

2015-05-01

Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Behavioral momentum theory: equations and applications.

PubMed

Nevin, John A; Shahan, Timothy A

2011-01-01

Behavioral momentum theory provides a quantitative account of how reinforcers experienced within a discriminative stimulus context govern the persistence of behavior that occurs in that context. The theory suggests that all reinforcers obtained in the presence of a discriminative stimulus increase resistance to change, regardless of whether those reinforcers are contingent on the target behavior, are noncontingent, or are even contingent on an alternative behavior. In this paper, we describe the equations that constitute the theory and address their application to issues of particular importance in applied settings. The theory provides a framework within which to consider the effects of interventions such as extinction, noncontingent reinforcement, differential reinforcement of alternative behavior, and other phenomena (e.g., resurgence). Finally, the theory predicts some counterintuitive and potentially counterproductive effects of alternative reinforcement, and can serve as an integrative guide for intervention when its terms are identified with the relevant conditions of applied settings.

Life history trade-off moderates model predictions of diversity loss from climate change.

PubMed

Moor, Helen

2017-01-01

Climate change can trigger species range shifts, local extinctions and changes in diversity. Species interactions and dispersal capacity are important mediators of community responses to climate change. The interaction between multispecies competition and variation in dispersal capacity has recently been shown to exacerbate the effects of climate change on diversity and to increase predictions of extinction risk dramatically. Dispersal capacity, however, is part of a species' overall ecological strategy and are likely to trade off with other aspects of its life history that influence population growth and persistence. In plants, a well-known example is the trade-off between seed mass and seed number. The presence of such a trade-off might buffer the diversity loss predicted by models with random but neutral (i.e. not impacting fitness otherwise) differences in dispersal capacity. Using a trait-based metacommunity model along a warming climatic gradient the effect of three different dispersal scenarios on model predictions of diversity change were compared. Adding random variation in species dispersal capacity caused extinctions by the introduction of strong fitness differences due an inherent property of the dispersal kernel. Simulations including a fitness-equalising trade-off based on empirical relationships between seed mass (here affecting dispersal distance, establishment probability, and seedling biomass) and seed number (fecundity) maintained higher initial species diversity and predicted lower extinction risk and diversity loss during climate change than simulations with variable dispersal capacity. Large seeded species persisted during climate change, but developed lags behind their climate niche that may cause extinction debts. Small seeded species were more extinction-prone during climate change but tracked their niches through dispersal and colonisation, despite competitive resistance from residents. Life history trade-offs involved in coexistence mechanisms may increase community resilience to future climate change and are useful guides for model development.

Extinction of relapsed fear does not require the basolateral amygdala.

PubMed

Lingawi, Nura W; Westbrook, R Frederick; Laurent, Vincent

2017-03-01

It is well established that extinguished fears are restored with the passage of time or a change in physical context. These fear restoration phenomena are believed to mimic the conditions under which relapse occurs in patients that have been treated for anxiety disorders by means of cue-exposure therapy. Here, we used a rodent model to extinguish relapsed fear and assess whether this new extinction prevents further relapse. We found that activity in the basolateral amygdala (BLA) is required to initially extinguish conditioned fear, but this activity was not necessary to subsequently extinguish relapsed fear. That is, extinction of spontaneously recovered or renewed fear was spared by BLA inactivation. Yet, this BLA-independent learning of extinction did not protect against further relapse: extinction of relapsed fear conducted without BLA activity was still likely to return after the passage of time or a shift in physical context. These findings have important clinical implications. They indicate that pharmacological agents with anxiolytic properties may disrupt initial cue-exposure therapy but may be useful when therapy is again needed due to relapse. However, they also suggest that these agents will not protect against further relapse, implying the need for developing drugs that target other brain regions involved in fear inhibition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes.

PubMed

Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron Macneil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Ohman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

2011-04-01

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes

PubMed Central

Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron MacNeil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Öhman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

2011-01-01

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. PMID:21320260

Predicting evolutionary rescue via evolving plasticity in stochastic environments

PubMed Central

Baskett, Marissa L.

2016-01-01

Phenotypic plasticity and its evolution may help evolutionary rescue in a novel and stressful environment, especially if environmental novelty reveals cryptic genetic variation that enables the evolution of increased plasticity. However, the environmental stochasticity ubiquitous in natural systems may alter these predictions, because high plasticity may amplify phenotype–environment mismatches. Although previous studies have highlighted this potential detrimental effect of plasticity in stochastic environments, they have not investigated how it affects extinction risk in the context of evolutionary rescue and with evolving plasticity. We investigate this question here by integrating stochastic demography with quantitative genetic theory in a model with simultaneous change in the mean and predictability (temporal autocorrelation) of the environment. We develop an approximate prediction of long-term persistence under the new pattern of environmental fluctuations, and compare it with numerical simulations for short- and long-term extinction risk. We find that reduced predictability increases extinction risk and reduces persistence because it increases stochastic load during rescue. This understanding of how stochastic demography, phenotypic plasticity, and evolution interact when evolution acts on cryptic genetic variation revealed in a novel environment can inform expectations for invasions, extinctions, or the emergence of chemical resistance in pests. PMID:27655762

Compound stimulus presentation and the norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor atomoxetine enhance long-term extinction of cocaine-seeking behavior.

PubMed

Janak, Patricia H; Bowers, M Scott; Corbit, Laura H

2012-03-01

Drug abstinence is frequently compromised when addicted individuals are re-exposed to environmental stimuli previously associated with drug use. Research with human addicts and in animal models has demonstrated that extinction learning (non-reinforced cue-exposure) can reduce the capacity of such stimuli to induce relapse, yet extinction therapies have limited long-term success under real-world conditions (Bouton, 2002; O'Brien, 2008). We hypothesized that enhancing extinction would reduce the later ability of drug-predictive cues to precipitate drug-seeking behavior. We, therefore, tested whether compound stimulus presentation and pharmacological treatments that augment noradrenergic activity (atomoxetine; norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor) during extinction training would facilitate the extinction of drug-seeking behaviors, thus reducing relapse. Rats were trained that the presentation of a discrete cue signaled that a lever press response would result in cocaine reinforcement. Rats were subsequently extinguished and spontaneous recovery of drug-seeking behavior following presentation of previously drug-predictive cues was tested 4 weeks later. We find that compound stimulus presentations or pharmacologically increasing noradrenergic activity during extinction training results in less future recovery of responding, whereas propranolol treatment reduced the benefit seen with compound stimulus presentation. These data may have important implications for understanding the biological basis of extinction learning, as well as for improving the outcome of extinction-based therapies.

Cued Reacquisition Trials during Extinction Weaken Contextual Renewal in Human Predictive Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Effting, Marieke; Vervliet, Bram; Beckers, Tom; Kindt, Merel

2013-01-01

Extinction is generally more context specific than acquisition, as illustrated by the renewal effect. While most strategies to counteract renewal focus on decreasing the context specificity of extinction, the present work aimed at increasing the context specificity of acquisition learning. Two experiments examined whether presenting cued…

Cortisol disrupts the neural correlates of extinction recall.

PubMed

Kinner, Valerie L; Merz, Christian J; Lissek, Silke; Wolf, Oliver T

2016-06-01

The renewal effect describes the recovery of extinguished responses that may occur after a change in context and indicates that extinction memory retrieval is sometimes prone to failure. Stress hormones have been implicated to modulate extinction processes, with mostly impairing effects on extinction retrieval. However, the neurobiological mechanisms mediating stress effects on extinction memory remain elusive. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging study, we investigated the effects of cortisol administration on the neural correlates of extinction memory retrieval in a predictive learning task. In this task, participants were required to predict whether certain food stimuli were associated with stomach trouble when presented in two different contexts. A two-day renewal paradigm was applied in which an association was acquired in context A and subsequently extinguished in context B. On the following day, participants received either cortisol or placebo 40min before extinction memory retrieval was tested in both contexts. Behaviorally, cortisol impaired the retrieval of extinguished associations when presented in the extinction context. On the neural level, this effect was characterized by a reduced context differentiation for the extinguished stimulus in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, but only in men. In the placebo group, ventromedial prefrontal cortex was functionally connected to the left cerebellum, the anterior cingulate and the right anterior parahippocampal gyrus to express extinction memory. This functional crosstalk was reduced under cortisol. These findings illustrate that the stress hormone cortisol disrupts ventromedial prefrontal cortex functioning and its communication with other brain regions implicated in extinction memory. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Extinction debt: a challenge for biodiversity conservation.

PubMed

Kuussaari, Mikko; Bommarco, Riccardo; Heikkinen, Risto K; Helm, Aveliina; Krauss, Jochen; Lindborg, Regina; Ockinger, Erik; Pärtel, Meelis; Pino, Joan; Rodà, Ferran; Stefanescu, Constantí; Teder, Tiit; Zobel, Martin; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf

2009-10-01

Local extinction of species can occur with a substantial delay following habitat loss or degradation. Accumulating evidence suggests that such extinction debts pose a significant but often unrecognized challenge for biodiversity conservation across a wide range of taxa and ecosystems. Species with long generation times and populations near their extinction threshold are most likely to have an extinction debt. However, as long as a species that is predicted to become extinct still persists, there is time for conservation measures such as habitat restoration and landscape management. Standardized long-term monitoring, more high-quality empirical studies on different taxa and ecosystems and further development of analytical methods will help to better quantify extinction debt and protect biodiversity.

A Review on Human Reinstatement Studies: An Overview and Methodological Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haaker, Jan; Golkar, Armita; Hermans, Dirk; Lonsdorf, Tina B.

2014-01-01

In human research, studies of return of fear (ROF) phenomena, and reinstatement in particular, began only a decade ago and recently are more widely used, e.g., as outcome measures for fear/extinction memory manipulations (e.g., reconsolidation). As reinstatement research in humans is still in its infancy, providing an overview of its stability and…

Does fear extinction in the laboratory predict outcomes of exposure therapy? A treatment analog study.

PubMed

Forcadell, Eduard; Torrents-Rodas, David; Vervliet, Bram; Leiva, David; Tortella-Feliu, Miquel; Fullana, Miquel A

2017-11-01

Fear extinction models have a key role in our understanding of anxiety disorders and their treatment with exposure therapy. Here, we tested whether individual differences in fear extinction learning and fear extinction recall in the laboratory were associated with the outcomes of an exposure therapy analog (ETA). Fifty adults with fear of spiders participated in a two-day fear-learning paradigm assessing fear extinction learning and fear extinction recall, and then underwent a brief ETA. Correlational analyses indicated that enhanced extinction learning was associated with better ETA outcome. Our results partially support the idea that individual differences in fear extinction learning may be associated with exposure therapy outcome, but suggest that further research in this area is needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

From Pavlov to PTSD: The extinction of conditioned fear in rodents, humans, and in anxiety disorders

PubMed Central

VanElzakker, Michael B.; Dahlgren, M. Kathryn; Davis, F. Caroline; Dubois, Stacey; Shin, Lisa M.

2014-01-01

Nearly 100 years ago, Ivan Pavlov demonstrated that dogs could learn to use a neutral cue to predict a biologically relevant event: after repeated predictive pairings, Pavlov's dogs were conditioned to anticipate food at the sound of a bell, which caused them to salivate. Like sustenance, danger is biologically relevant, and neutral cues can take on great salience when they predict a threat to survival. In anxiety disorders such as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), this type of conditioned fear fails to extinguish, and reminders of traumatic events can cause pathological conditioned fear responses for decades after danger has passed. In this review, we use fear conditioning and extinction studies to draw a direct line from Pavlov to PTSD and other anxiety disorders. We explain how rodent studies have informed neuroimaging studies of healthy humans and humans with PTSD. We describe several genes that have been linked to both PTSD and fear conditioning and extinction and explain how abnormalities in fear conditioning or extinction may reflect a general biomarker of anxiety disorders. Finally, we explore drug and neuromodulation treatments that may enhance therapeutic extinction in anxiety disorders. PMID:24321650

From Pavlov to PTSD: the extinction of conditioned fear in rodents, humans, and anxiety disorders.

PubMed

VanElzakker, Michael B; Dahlgren, M Kathryn; Davis, F Caroline; Dubois, Stacey; Shin, Lisa M

2014-09-01

Nearly 100 years ago, Ivan Pavlov demonstrated that dogs could learn to use a neutral cue to predict a biologically relevant event: after repeated predictive pairings, Pavlov's dogs were conditioned to anticipate food at the sound of a bell, which caused them to salivate. Like sustenance, danger is biologically relevant, and neutral cues can take on great salience when they predict a threat to survival. In anxiety disorders such as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), this type of conditioned fear fails to extinguish, and reminders of traumatic events can cause pathological conditioned fear responses for decades after danger has passed. In this review, we use fear conditioning and extinction studies to draw a direct line from Pavlov to PTSD and other anxiety disorders. We explain how rodent studies have informed neuroimaging studies of healthy humans and humans with PTSD. We describe several genes that have been linked to both PTSD and fear conditioning and extinction and explain how abnormalities in fear conditioning or extinction may reflect a general biomarker of anxiety disorders. Finally, we explore drug and neuromodulation treatments that may enhance therapeutic extinction in anxiety disorders. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ecological impact of the end-Cretaceous extinction on lamniform sharks.

PubMed

Belben, Rachel A; Underwood, Charlie J; Johanson, Zerina; Twitchett, Richard J

2017-01-01

Lamniform sharks are apex marine predators undergoing dramatic local and regional decline worldwide, with consequences for marine ecosystems that are difficult to predict. Through their long history, lamniform sharks have faced widespread extinction, and understanding those 'natural experiments' may help constrain predictions, placing the current crisis in evolutionary context. Here we show, using novel morphometric analyses of fossil shark teeth, that the end-Cretaceous extinction of many sharks had major ecological consequences. Post-extinction ecosystems supported lower diversity and disparity of lamniforms, and were dominated by significantly smaller sharks with slimmer, smoother and less robust teeth. Tooth shape is intimately associated with ecology, feeding and prey type, and by integrating data from extant sharks we show that latest Cretaceous sharks occupied similar niches to modern lamniforms, implying similar ecosystem structure and function. By comparison, species in the depauperate post-extinction community occupied niches most similar to those of juvenile sand tigers (Carcharias taurus). Our data show that quantitative tooth morphometrics can distinguish lamniform sharks due to dietary differences, providing critical insights into ecological consequences of past extinction episodes.

Species-area relationships and extinction forecasts.

PubMed

Halley, John M; Sgardeli, Vasiliki; Monokrousos, Nikolaos

2013-05-01

The species-area relationship (SAR) predicts that smaller areas contain fewer species. This is the basis of the SAR method that has been used to forecast large numbers of species committed to extinction every year due to deforestation. The method has a number of issues that must be handled with care to avoid error. These include the functional form of the SAR, the choice of equation parameters, the sampling procedure used, extinction debt, and forest regeneration. Concerns about the accuracy of the SAR technique often cite errors not much larger than the natural scatter of the SAR itself. Such errors do not undermine the credibility of forecasts predicting large numbers of extinctions, although they may be a serious obstacle in other SAR applications. Very large errors can arise from misinterpretation of extinction debt, inappropriate functional form, and ignoring forest regeneration. Major challenges remain to understand better the relationship between sampling protocol and the functional form of SARs and the dynamics of relaxation, especially in continental areas, and to widen the testing of extinction forecasts. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

Ecological impact of the end-Cretaceous extinction on lamniform sharks

PubMed Central

Belben, Rachel A.; Underwood, Charlie J.; Johanson, Zerina; Twitchett, Richard J.

2017-01-01

Lamniform sharks are apex marine predators undergoing dramatic local and regional decline worldwide, with consequences for marine ecosystems that are difficult to predict. Through their long history, lamniform sharks have faced widespread extinction, and understanding those ‘natural experiments’ may help constrain predictions, placing the current crisis in evolutionary context. Here we show, using novel morphometric analyses of fossil shark teeth, that the end-Cretaceous extinction of many sharks had major ecological consequences. Post-extinction ecosystems supported lower diversity and disparity of lamniforms, and were dominated by significantly smaller sharks with slimmer, smoother and less robust teeth. Tooth shape is intimately associated with ecology, feeding and prey type, and by integrating data from extant sharks we show that latest Cretaceous sharks occupied similar niches to modern lamniforms, implying similar ecosystem structure and function. By comparison, species in the depauperate post-extinction community occupied niches most similar to those of juvenile sand tigers (Carcharias taurus). Our data show that quantitative tooth morphometrics can distinguish lamniform sharks due to dietary differences, providing critical insights into ecological consequences of past extinction episodes. PMID:28591222

Search for jet extinction in the inclusive jet-pt spectrum from proton-proton collisions at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khachatryan, Vardan; et al.,

The first search at the LHC for the extinction of QCD jet production is presented, using data collected with the CMS detector corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 10.7 inverse femtobarns of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV. The extinction model studied in this analysis is motivated by the search for signatures of strong gravity at the TeV scale (terascale gravity) and assumes the existence of string couplings in the strong-coupling limit. In this limit, the string model predicts the suppression of all high-transverse-momentum standard model processes, including jet production, beyond a certain energy scale. To testmore » this prediction, the measured transverse-momentum spectrum is compared to the theoretical prediction of the standard model. No significant deficit of events is found at high transverse momentum. A 95% confidence level lower limit of 3.3 TeV is set on the extinction mass scale.« less

Search for jet extinction in the inclusive jet-pT spectrum from proton-proton collisions at √s =8 TeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khachatryan, V.; Sirunyan, A. M.; Tumasyan, A.; Adam, W.; Bergauer, T.; Dragicevic, M.; Erö, J.; Fabjan, C.; Friedl, M.; Frühwirth, R.; Ghete, V. M.; Hartl, C.; Hörmann, N.; Hrubec, J.; Jeitler, M.; Kiesenhofer, W.; Knünz, V.; Krammer, M.; Krätschmer, I.; Liko, D.; Mikulec, I.; Rabady, D.; Rahbaran, B.; Rohringer, H.; Schöfbeck, R.; Strauss, J.; Taurok, A.; Treberer-Treberspurg, W.; Waltenberger, W.; Wulz, C.-E.; Mossolov, V.; Shumeiko, N.; Suarez Gonzalez, J.; Alderweireldt, S.; Bansal, M.; Bansal, S.; Cornelis, T.; De Wolf, E. A.; Janssen, X.; Knutsson, A.; Luyckx, S.; Ochesanu, S.; Roland, B.; Rougny, R.; Van De Klundert, M.; Van Haevermaet, H.; Van Mechelen, P.; Van Remortel, N.; Van Spilbeeck, A.; Blekman, F.; Blyweert, S.; D'Hondt, J.; Daci, N.; Heracleous, N.; Kalogeropoulos, A.; Keaveney, J.; Kim, T. J.; Lowette, S.; Maes, M.; Olbrechts, A.; Python, Q.; Strom, D.; Tavernier, S.; Van Doninck, W.; Van Mulders, P.; Van Onsem, G. P.; Villella, I.; Caillol, C.; Clerbaux, B.; De Lentdecker, G.; Dobur, D.; Favart, L.; Gay, A. P. R.; Grebenyuk, A.; Léonard, A.; Mohammadi, A.; Perniè, L.; Reis, T.; Seva, T.; Thomas, L.; Vander Velde, C.; Vanlaer, P.; Wang, J.; Adler, V.; Beernaert, K.; Benucci, L.; Cimmino, A.; Costantini, S.; Crucy, S.; Dildick, S.; Fagot, A.; Garcia, G.; Klein, B.; Mccartin, J.; Ocampo Rios, A. A.; Ryckbosch, D.; Salva Diblen, S.; Sigamani, M.; Strobbe, N.; Thyssen, F.; Tytgat, M.; Yazgan, E.; Zaganidis, N.; Basegmez, S.; Beluffi, C.; Bruno, G.; Castello, R.; Caudron, A.; Ceard, L.; Da Silveira, G. G.; Delaere, C.; du Pree, T.; Favart, D.; Forthomme, L.; Giammanco, A.; Hollar, J.; Jez, P.; Komm, M.; Lemaitre, V.; Liao, J.; Nuttens, C.; Pagano, D.; Pin, A.; Piotrzkowski, K.; Popov, A.; Quertenmont, L.; Selvaggi, M.; Vidal Marono, M.; Vizan Garcia, J. M.; Beliy, N.; Caebergs, T.; Daubie, E.; Hammad, G. H.; Alves, G. A.; Correa Martins Junior, M.; Dos Reis Martins, T.; Pol, M. E.; Aldá Júnior, W. L.; Carvalho, W.; Chinellato, J.; Custódio, A.; Da Costa, E. M.; De Jesus Damiao, D.; De Oliveira Martins, C.; Fonseca De Souza, S.; Malbouisson, H.; Malek, M.; Matos Figueiredo, D.; Mundim, L.; Nogima, H.; Prado Da Silva, W. L.; Santaolalla, J.; Santoro, A.; Sznajder, A.; Tonelli Manganote, E. J.; Vilela Pereira, A.; Bernardes, C. A.; Dias, F. A.; Fernandez Perez Tomei, T. R.; Gregores, E. M.; Mercadante, P. G.; Novaes, S. F.; Padula, Sandra S.; Aleksandrov, A.; Genchev, V.; Iaydjiev, P.; Marinov, A.; Piperov, S.; Rodozov, M.; Sultanov, G.; Vutova, M.; Dimitrov, A.; Glushkov, I.; Hadjiiska, R.; Kozhuharov, V.; Litov, L.; Pavlov, B.; Petkov, P.; Bian, J. G.; Chen, G. M.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, M.; Du, R.; Jiang, C. H.; Liang, D.; Liang, S.; Plestina, R.; Tao, J.; Wang, X.; Wang, Z.; Asawatangtrakuldee, C.; Ban, Y.; Guo, Y.; Li, Q.; Li, W.; Liu, S.; Mao, Y.; Qian, S. J.; Wang, D.; Zhang, L.; Zou, W.; Avila, C.; Chaparro Sierra, L. F.; Florez, C.; Gomez, J. P.; Gomez Moreno, B.; Sanabria, J. C.; Godinovic, N.; Lelas, D.; Polic, D.; Puljak, I.; Antunovic, Z.; Kovac, M.; Brigljevic, V.; Kadija, K.; Luetic, J.; Mekterovic, D.; Sudic, L.; Attikis, A.; Mavromanolakis, G.; Mousa, J.; Nicolaou, C.; Ptochos, F.; Razis, P. A.; Bodlak, M.; Finger, M.; Finger, M.; Assran, Y.; Elgammal, S.; Mahmoud, M. A.; Radi, A.; Kadastik, M.; Murumaa, M.; Raidal, M.; Tiko, A.; Eerola, P.; Fedi, G.; Voutilainen, M.; Härkönen, J.; Karimäki, V.; Kinnunen, R.; Kortelainen, M. J.; Lampén, T.; Lassila-Perini, K.; Lehti, S.; Lindén, T.; Luukka, P.; Mäenpää, T.; Peltola, T.; Tuominen, E.; Tuominiemi, J.; Tuovinen, E.; Wendland, L.; Tuuva, T.; Besancon, M.; Couderc, F.; Dejardin, M.; Denegri, D.; Fabbro, B.; Faure, J. L.; Favaro, C.; Ferri, F.; Ganjour, S.; Givernaud, A.; Gras, P.; Hamel de Monchenault, G.; Jarry, P.; Locci, E.; Malcles, J.; Nayak, A.; Rander, J.; Rosowsky, A.; Titov, M.; Baffioni, S.; Beaudette, F.; Busson, P.; Charlot, C.; Dahms, T.; Dalchenko, M.; Dobrzynski, L.; Filipovic, N.; Florent, A.; Granier de Cassagnac, R.; Mastrolorenzo, L.; Miné, P.; Mironov, C.; Naranjo, I. N.; Nguyen, M.; Ochando, C.; Paganini, P.; Salerno, R.; Sauvan, J. B.; Sirois, Y.; Veelken, C.; Yilmaz, Y.; Zabi, A.; Agram, J.-L.; Andrea, J.; Aubin, A.; Bloch, D.; Brom, J.-M.; Chabert, E. C.; Collard, C.; Conte, E.; Fontaine, J.-C.; Gelé, D.; Goerlach, U.; Goetzmann, C.; Le Bihan, A.-C.; Van Hove, P.; Gadrat, S.; Beauceron, S.; Beaupere, N.; Boudoul, G.; Brochet, S.; Carrillo Montoya, C. A.; Chasserat, J.; Chierici, R.; Contardo, D.; Depasse, P.; El Mamouni, H.; Fan, J.; Fay, J.; Gascon, S.; Gouzevitch, M.; Ille, B.; Kurca, T.; Lethuillier, M.; Mirabito, L.; Perries, S.; Ruiz Alvarez, J. D.; Sabes, D.; Sgandurra, L.; Sordini, V.; Vander Donckt, M.; Verdier, P.; Viret, S.; Xiao, H.; Tsamalaidze, Z.; Autermann, C.; Beranek, S.; Bontenackels, M.; Calpas, B.; Edelhoff, M.; Feld, L.; Hindrichs, O.; Klein, K.; Ostapchuk, A.; Perieanu, A.; Raupach, F.; Sammet, J.; Schael, S.; Sprenger, D.; Weber, H.; Wittmer, B.; Zhukov, V.; Ata, M.; Caudron, J.; Dietz-Laursonn, E.; Duchardt, D.; Erdmann, M.; Fischer, R.; Güth, A.; Hebbeker, T.; Heidemann, C.; Hoepfner, K.; Klingebiel, D.; Knutzen, S.; Kreuzer, P.; Merschmeyer, M.; Meyer, A.; Olschewski, M.; Padeken, K.; Papacz, P.; Reithler, H.; Schmitz, S. A.; Sonnenschein, L.; Teyssier, D.; Thüer, S.; Weber, M.; Cherepanov, V.; Erdogan, Y.; Flügge, G.; Geenen, H.; Geisler, M.; Haj Ahmad, W.; Hoehle, F.; Kargoll, B.; Kress, T.; Kuessel, Y.; Lingemann, J.; Nowack, A.; Nugent, I. M.; Perchalla, L.; Pooth, O.; Stahl, A.; Asin, I.; Bartosik, N.; Behr, J.; Behrenhoff, W.; Behrens, U.; Bell, A. J.; Bergholz, M.; Bethani, A.; Borras, K.; Burgmeier, A.; Cakir, A.; Calligaris, L.; Campbell, A.; Choudhury, S.; Costanza, F.; Diez Pardos, C.; Dooling, S.; Dorland, T.; Eckerlin, G.; Eckstein, D.; Eichhorn, T.; Flucke, G.; Garay Garcia, J.; Geiser, A.; Gunnellini, P.; Hauk, J.; Hellwig, G.; Hempel, M.; Horton, D.; Jung, H.; Kasemann, M.; Katsas, P.; Kieseler, J.; Kleinwort, C.; Krücker, D.; Lange, W.; Leonard, J.; Lipka, K.; Lobanov, A.; Lohmann, W.; Lutz, B.; Mankel, R.; Marfin, I.; Melzer-Pellmann, I.-A.; Meyer, A. B.; Mnich, J.; Mussgiller, A.; Naumann-Emme, S.; Novgorodova, O.; Nowak, F.; Ntomari, E.; Perrey, H.; Pitzl, D.; Placakyte, R.; Raspereza, A.; Ribeiro Cipriano, P. M.; Ron, E.; Sahin, M. Ö.; Salfeld-Nebgen, J.; Saxena, P.; Schmidt, R.; Schoerner-Sadenius, T.; Schröder, M.; Spannagel, S.; Vargas Trevino, A. D. R.; Walsh, R.; Wissing, C.; Aldaya Martin, M.; Blobel, V.; Centis Vignali, M.; Erfle, J.; Garutti, E.; Goebel, K.; Görner, M.; Gosselink, M.; Haller, J.; Höing, R. S.; Kirschenmann, H.; Klanner, R.; Kogler, R.; Lange, J.; Lapsien, T.; Lenz, T.; Marchesini, I.; Ott, J.; Peiffer, T.; Pietsch, N.; Rathjens, D.; Sander, C.; Schettler, H.; Schleper, P.; Schlieckau, E.; Schmidt, A.; Seidel, M.; Sibille, J.; Sola, V.; Stadie, H.; Steinbrück, G.; Troendle, D.; Usai, E.; Vanelderen, L.; Barth, C.; Baus, C.; Berger, J.; Böser, C.; Butz, E.; Chwalek, T.; De Boer, W.; Descroix, A.; Dierlamm, A.; Feindt, M.; Hartmann, F.; Hauth, T.; Husemann, U.; Katkov, I.; Kornmayer, A.; Kuznetsova, E.; Lobelle Pardo, P.; Mozer, M. U.; Müller, Th.; Nürnberg, A.; Quast, G.; Rabbertz, K.; Ratnikov, F.; Röcker, S.; Simonis, H. J.; Stober, F. M.; Ulrich, R.; Wagner-Kuhr, J.; Wayand, S.; Weiler, T.; Wolf, R.; Anagnostou, G.; Daskalakis, G.; Geralis, T.; Giakoumopoulou, V. A.; Kyriakis, A.; Loukas, D.; Markou, A.; Markou, C.; Psallidas, A.; Topsis-Giotis, I.; Gouskos, L.; Panagiotou, A.; Saoulidou, N.; Stiliaris, E.; Aslanoglou, X.; Evangelou, I.; Flouris, G.; Foudas, C.; Kokkas, P.; Manthos, N.; Papadopoulos, I.; Paradas, E.; Bencze, G.; Hajdu, C.; Hidas, P.; Horvath, D.; Sikler, F.; Veszpremi, V.; Vesztergombi, G.; Zsigmond, A. J.; Beni, N.; Czellar, S.; Karancsi, J.; Molnar, J.; Palinkas, J.; Szillasi, Z.; Raics, P.; Trocsanyi, Z. L.; Ujvari, B.; Swain, S. K.; Beri, S. B.; Bhatnagar, V.; Dhingra, N.; Gupta, R.; Kalsi, A. K.; Kaur, M.; Mittal, M.; Nishu, N.; Singh, J. B.; Kumar, Ashok; Kumar, Arun; Ahuja, S.; Bhardwaj, A.; Choudhary, B. C.; Kumar, A.; Malhotra, S.; Naimuddin, M.; Ranjan, K.; Sharma, V.; Banerjee, S.; Bhattacharya, S.; Chatterjee, K.; Dutta, S.; Gomber, B.; Jain, Sa.; Jain, Sh.; Khurana, R.; Modak, A.; Mukherjee, S.; Roy, D.; Sarkar, S.; Sharan, M.; Abdulsalam, A.; Dutta, D.; Kailas, S.; Kumar, V.; Mohanty, A. K.; Pant, L. M.; Shukla, P.; Topkar, A.; Aziz, T.; Banerjee, S.; Chatterjee, R. M.; Dewanjee, R. K.; Dugad, S.; Ganguly, S.; Ghosh, S.; Guchait, M.; Gurtu, A.; Kole, G.; Kumar, S.; Maity, M.; Majumder, G.; Mazumdar, K.; Mohanty, G. B.; Parida, B.; Sudhakar, K.; Wickramage, N.; Bakhshiansohi, H.; Behnamian, H.; Etesami, S. M.; Fahim, A.; Goldouzian, R.; Jafari, A.; Khakzad, M.; Mohammadi Najafabadi, M.; Naseri, M.; Paktinat Mehdiabadi, S.; Safarzadeh, B.; Zeinali, M.; Felcini, M.; Grunewald, M.; Abbrescia, M.; Barbone, L.; Calabria, C.; Chhibra, S. S.; Colaleo, A.; Creanza, D.; De Filippis, N.; De Palma, M.; Fiore, L.; Iaselli, G.; Maggi, G.; Maggi, M.; My, S.; Nuzzo, S.; Pompili, A.; Pugliese, G.; Radogna, R.; Selvaggi, G.; Silvestris, L.; Singh, G.; Venditti, R.; Verwilligen, P.; Zito, G.; Abbiendi, G.; Benvenuti, A. C.; Bonacorsi, D.; Braibant-Giacomelli, S.; Brigliadori, L.; Campanini, R.; Capiluppi, P.; Castro, A.; Cavallo, F. R.; Codispoti, G.; Cuffiani, M.; Dallavalle, G. 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M.; Lista, L.; Meola, S.; Merola, M.; Paolucci, P.; Azzi, P.; Bacchetta, N.; Bisello, D.; Branca, A.; Carlin, R.; Dall'Osso, M.; Dorigo, T.; Galanti, M.; Gasparini, F.; Giubilato, P.; Gozzelino, A.; Kanishchev, K.; Lacaprara, S.; Margoni, M.; Meneguzzo, A. T.; Montecassiano, F.; Passaseo, M.; Pazzini, J.; Pozzobon, N.; Ronchese, P.; Simonetto, F.; Torassa, E.; Tosi, M.; Vanini, S.; Zotto, P.; Zucchetta, A.; Zumerle, G.; Gabusi, M.; Ratti, S. P.; Riccardi, C.; Salvini, P.; Vitulo, P.; Biasini, M.; Bilei, G. M.; Ciangottini, D.; Fanò, L.; Lariccia, P.; Mantovani, G.; Menichelli, M.; Romeo, F.; Saha, A.; Santocchia, A.; Spiezia, A.; Androsov, K.; Azzurri, P.; Bagliesi, G.; Bernardini, J.; Boccali, T.; Broccolo, G.; Castaldi, R.; Ciocci, M. A.; Dell'Orso, R.; Donato, S.; Fiori, F.; Foà, L.; Giassi, A.; Grippo, M. T.; Ligabue, F.; Lomtadze, T.; Martini, L.; Messineo, A.; Moon, C. S.; Palla, F.; Rizzi, A.; Savoy-Navarro, A.; Serban, A. T.; Spagnolo, P.; Squillacioti, P.; Tenchini, R.; Tonelli, G.; Venturi, A.; Verdini, P. G.; Vernieri, C.; Barone, L.; Cavallari, F.; Del Re, D.; Diemoz, M.; Grassi, M.; Jorda, C.; Longo, E.; Margaroli, F.; Meridiani, P.; Micheli, F.; Nourbakhsh, S.; Organtini, G.; Paramatti, R.; Rahatlou, S.; Rovelli, C.; Santanastasio, F.; Soffi, L.; Traczyk, P.; Amapane, N.; Arcidiacono, R.; Argiro, S.; Arneodo, M.; Bellan, R.; Biino, C.; Cartiglia, N.; Casasso, S.; Costa, M.; Degano, A.; Demaria, N.; Finco, L.; Mariotti, C.; Maselli, S.; Migliore, E.; Monaco, V.; Musich, M.; Obertino, M. M.; Ortona, G.; Pacher, L.; Pastrone, N.; Pelliccioni, M.; Pinna Angioni, G. L.; Potenza, A.; Romero, A.; Ruspa, M.; Sacchi, R.; Solano, A.; Staiano, A.; Tamponi, U.; Belforte, S.; Candelise, V.; Casarsa, M.; Cossutti, F.; Della Ricca, G.; Gobbo, B.; La Licata, C.; Marone, M.; Montanino, D.; Schizzi, A.; Umer, T.; Zanetti, A.; Chang, S.; Kropivnitskaya, A.; Nam, S. K.; Kim, D. H.; Kim, G. N.; Kim, M. S.; Kong, D. J.; Lee, S.; Oh, Y. D.; Park, H.; Sakharov, A.; Son, D. C.; Kim, J. Y.; Song, S.; Choi, S.; Gyun, D.; Hong, B.; Jo, M.; Kim, H.; Kim, Y.; Lee, B.; Lee, K. S.; Park, S. K.; Roh, Y.; Choi, M.; Kim, J. H.; Park, I. C.; Park, S.; Ryu, G.; Ryu, M. S.; Choi, Y.; Choi, Y. K.; Goh, J.; Kwon, E.; Lee, J.; Seo, H.; Yu, I.; Juodagalvis, A.; Komaragiri, J. R.; Castilla-Valdez, H.; De La Cruz-Burelo, E.; Heredia-de La Cruz, I.; Lopez-Fernandez, R.; Sanchez-Hernandez, A.; Carrillo Moreno, S.; Vazquez Valencia, F.; Pedraza, I.; Salazar Ibarguen, H. A.; Casimiro Linares, E.; Morelos Pineda, A.; Krofcheck, D.; Butler, P. H.; Reucroft, S.; Ahmad, A.; Ahmad, M.; Hassan, Q.; Hoorani, H. R.; Khalid, S.; Khan, W. A.; Khurshid, T.; Shah, M. 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V.; Vinogradov, A.; Belyaev, A.; Boos, E.; Dubinin, M.; Dudko, L.; Ershov, A.; Gribushin, A.; Klyukhin, V.; Kodolova, O.; Lokhtin, I.; Obraztsov, S.; Petrushanko, S.; Savrin, V.; Snigirev, A.; Azhgirey, I.; Bayshev, I.; Bitioukov, S.; Kachanov, V.; Kalinin, A.; Konstantinov, D.; Krychkine, V.; Petrov, V.; Ryutin, R.; Sobol, A.; Tourtchanovitch, L.; Troshin, S.; Tyurin, N.; Uzunian, A.; Volkov, A.; Adzic, P.; Dordevic, M.; Ekmedzic, M.; Milosevic, J.; Alcaraz Maestre, J.; Battilana, C.; Calvo, E.; Cerrada, M.; Chamizo Llatas, M.; Colino, N.; De La Cruz, B.; Delgado Peris, A.; Domínguez Vázquez, D.; Escalante Del Valle, A.; Fernandez Bedoya, C.; Fernández Ramos, J. P.; Flix, J.; Fouz, M. C.; Garcia-Abia, P.; Gonzalez Lopez, O.; Goy Lopez, S.; Hernandez, J. M.; Josa, M. I.; Merino, G.; Navarro De Martino, E.; Pérez-Calero Yzquierdo, A.; Puerta Pelayo, J.; Quintario Olmeda, A.; Redondo, I.; Romero, L.; Soares, M. S.; Albajar, C.; de Trocóniz, J. 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I.; Vlimant, J. R.; Wardle, N.; Wöhri, H. K.; Zeuner, W. D.; Bertl, W.; Deiters, K.; Erdmann, W.; Horisberger, R.; Ingram, Q.; Kaestli, H. C.; König, S.; Kotlinski, D.; Langenegger, U.; Renker, D.; Rohe, T.; Bachmair, F.; Bäni, L.; Bianchini, L.; Bortignon, P.; Buchmann, M. A.; Casal, B.; Chanon, N.; Deisher, A.; Dissertori, G.; Dittmar, M.; Donegà, M.; Dünser, M.; Eller, P.; Grab, C.; Hits, D.; Lustermann, W.; Mangano, B.; Marini, A. C.; Martinez Ruiz del Arbol, P.; Meister, D.; Mohr, N.; Nägeli, C.; Nef, P.; Nessi-Tedaldi, F.; Pandolfi, F.; Pauss, F.; Peruzzi, M.; Quittnat, M.; Rebane, L.; Ronga, F. J.; Rossini, M.; Starodumov, A.; Takahashi, M.; Theofilatos, K.; Wallny, R.; Weber, H. A.; Amsler, C.; Canelli, M. F.; Chiochia, V.; De Cosa, A.; Hinzmann, A.; Hreus, T.; Ivova Rikova, M.; Kilminster, B.; Millan Mejias, B.; Ngadiuba, J.; Robmann, P.; Snoek, H.; Taroni, S.; Verzetti, M.; Yang, Y.; Cardaci, M.; Chen, K. H.; Ferro, C.; Kuo, C. M.; Lin, W.; Lu, Y. J.; Volpe, R.; Yu, S. 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D.; Symonds, P.; Teodorescu, L.; Turner, M.; Dittmann, J.; Hatakeyama, K.; Kasmi, A.; Liu, H.; Scarborough, T.; Charaf, O.; Cooper, S. I.; Henderson, C.; Rumerio, P.; Avetisyan, A.; Bose, T.; Fantasia, C.; Heister, A.; Lawson, P.; Richardson, C.; Rohlf, J.; Sperka, D.; St. John, J.; Sulak, L.; Alimena, J.; Bhattacharya, S.; Christopher, G.; Cutts, D.; Demiragli, Z.; Ferapontov, A.; Garabedian, A.; Heintz, U.; Jabeen, S.; Kukartsev, G.; Laird, E.; Landsberg, G.; Luk, M.; Narain, M.; Segala, M.; Sinthuprasith, T.; Speer, T.; Swanson, J.; Breedon, R.; Breto, G.; Calderon De La Barca Sanchez, M.; Chauhan, S.; Chertok, M.; Conway, J.; Conway, R.; Cox, P. T.; Erbacher, R.; Gardner, M.; Ko, W.; Lander, R.; Miceli, T.; Mulhearn, M.; Pellett, D.; Pilot, J.; Ricci-Tam, F.; Searle, M.; Shalhout, S.; Smith, J.; Squires, M.; Stolp, D.; Tripathi, M.; Wilbur, S.; Yohay, R.; Cousins, R.; Everaerts, P.; Farrell, C.; Hauser, J.; Ignatenko, M.; Rakness, G.; Takasugi, E.; Valuev, V.; Weber, M.; Babb, J.; Clare, R.; Ellison, J.; Gary, J. W.; Hanson, G.; Heilman, J.; Jandir, P.; Kennedy, E.; Lacroix, F.; Liu, H.; Long, O. R.; Luthra, A.; Malberti, M.; Nguyen, H.; Shrinivas, A.; Sturdy, J.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Wimpenny, S.; Andrews, W.; Branson, J. G.; Cerati, G. B.; Cittolin, S.; D'Agnolo, R. 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I.; Maruyama, S.; Mason, D.; McBride, P.; Mishra, K.; Mrenna, S.; Musienko, Y.; Nahn, S.; Newman-Holmes, C.; O'Dell, V.; Prokofyev, O.; Sexton-Kennedy, E.; Sharma, S.; Soha, A.; Spalding, W. J.; Spiegel, L.; Taylor, L.; Tkaczyk, S.; Tran, N. V.; Uplegger, L.; Vaandering, E. W.; Vidal, R.; Whitbeck, A.; Whitmore, J.; Yang, F.; Acosta, D.; Avery, P.; Bourilkov, D.; Carver, M.; Cheng, T.; Curry, D.; Das, S.; De Gruttola, M.; Di Giovanni, G. P.; Field, R. D.; Fisher, M.; Furic, I. K.; Hugon, J.; Konigsberg, J.; Korytov, A.; Kypreos, T.; Low, J. F.; Matchev, K.; Milenovic, P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Muniz, L.; Rinkevicius, A.; Shchutska, L.; Skhirtladze, N.; Snowball, M.; Yelton, J.; Zakaria, M.; Gaultney, V.; Hewamanage, S.; Linn, S.; Markowitz, P.; Martinez, G.; Rodriguez, J. L.; Adams, T.; Askew, A.; Bochenek, J.; Diamond, B.; Haas, J.; Hagopian, S.; Hagopian, V.; Johnson, K. F.; Prosper, H.; Veeraraghavan, V.; Weinberg, M.; Baarmand, M. M.; Hohlmann, M.; Kalakhety, H.; Yumiceva, F.; Adams, M. R.; Apanasevich, L.; Bazterra, V. E.; Berry, D.; Betts, R. R.; Bucinskaite, I.; Cavanaugh, R.; Evdokimov, O.; Gauthier, L.; Gerber, C. E.; Hofman, D. J.; Khalatyan, S.; Kurt, P.; Moon, D. H.; O'Brien, C.; Silkworth, C.; Turner, P.; Varelas, N.; Albayrak, E. A.; Bilki, B.; Clarida, W.; Dilsiz, K.; Duru, F.; Haytmyradov, M.; Merlo, J.-P.; Mermerkaya, H.; Mestvirishvili, A.; Moeller, A.; Nachtman, J.; Ogul, H.; Onel, Y.; Ozok, F.; Penzo, A.; Rahmat, R.; Sen, S.; Tan, P.; Tiras, E.; Wetzel, J.; Yetkin, T.; Yi, K.; Barnett, B. A.; Blumenfeld, B.; Bolognesi, S.; Fehling, D.; Gritsan, A. V.; Maksimovic, P.; Martin, C.; Swartz, M.; Baringer, P.; Bean, A.; Benelli, G.; Bruner, C.; Gray, J.; Kenny, R. P.; Murray, M.; Noonan, D.; Sanders, S.; Sekaric, J.; Stringer, R.; Wang, Q.; Wood, J. S.; Barfuss, A. F.; Chakaberia, I.; Ivanov, A.; Khalil, S.; Makouski, M.; Maravin, Y.; Saini, L. K.; Shrestha, S.; Svintradze, I.; Gronberg, J.; Lange, D.; Rebassoo, F.; Wright, D.; Baden, A.; Calvert, B.; Eno, S. C.; Gomez, J. A.; Hadley, N. J.; Kellogg, R. G.; Kolberg, T.; Lu, Y.; Marionneau, M.; Mignerey, A. C.; Pedro, K.; Skuja, A.; Tonjes, M. B.; Tonwar, S. C.; Apyan, A.; Barbieri, R.; Bauer, G.; Busza, W.; Cali, I. A.; Chan, M.; Di Matteo, L.; Dutta, V.; Gomez Ceballos, G.; Goncharov, M.; Gulhan, D.; Klute, M.; Lai, Y. S.; Lee, Y.-J.; Levin, A.; Luckey, P. D.; Ma, T.; Paus, C.; Ralph, D.; Roland, C.; Roland, G.; Stephans, G. S. F.; Stöckli, F.; Sumorok, K.; Velicanu, D.; Veverka, J.; Wyslouch, B.; Yang, M.; Zanetti, M.; Zhukova, V.; Dahmes, B.; De Benedetti, A.; Gude, A.; Kao, S. C.; Klapoetke, K.; Kubota, Y.; Mans, J.; Pastika, N.; Rusack, R.; Singovsky, A.; Tambe, N.; Turkewitz, J.; Acosta, J. G.; Oliveros, S.; Avdeeva, E.; Bloom, K.; Bose, S.; Claes, D. R.; Dominguez, A.; Gonzalez Suarez, R.; Keller, J.; Knowlton, D.; Kravchenko, I.; Lazo-Flores, J.; Malik, S.; Meier, F.; Snow, G. R.; Dolen, J.; Godshalk, A.; Iashvili, I.; Kharchilava, A.; Kumar, A.; Rappoccio, S.; Alverson, G.; Barberis, E.; Baumgartel, D.; Chasco, M.; Haley, J.; Massironi, A.; Morse, D. M.; Nash, D.; Orimoto, T.; Trocino, D.; Wood, D.; Zhang, J.; Hahn, K. A.; Kubik, A.; Mucia, N.; Odell, N.; Pollack, B.; Pozdnyakov, A.; Schmitt, M.; Stoynev, S.; Sung, K.; Velasco, M.; Won, S.; Brinkerhoff, A.; Chan, K. M.; Drozdetskiy, A.; Hildreth, M.; Jessop, C.; Karmgard, D. J.; Kellams, N.; Lannon, K.; Luo, W.; Lynch, S.; Marinelli, N.; Pearson, T.; Planer, M.; Ruchti, R.; Valls, N.; Wayne, M.; Wolf, M.; Woodard, A.; Antonelli, L.; Brinson, J.; Bylsma, B.; Durkin, L. S.; Flowers, S.; Hill, C.; Hughes, R.; Kotov, K.; Ling, T. Y.; Puigh, D.; Rodenburg, M.; Smith, G.; Vuosalo, C.; Winer, B. L.; Wolfe, H.; Wulsin, H. W.; Berry, E.; Driga, O.; Elmer, P.; Hebda, P.; Hunt, A.; Koay, S. A.; Lujan, P.; Marlow, D.; Medvedeva, T.; Mooney, M.; Olsen, J.; Piroué, P.; Quan, X.; Saka, H.; Stickland, D.; Tully, C.; Werner, J. S.; Zenz, S. C.; Zuranski, A.; Brownson, E.; Mendez, H.; Ramirez Vargas, J. E.; Alagoz, E.; Barnes, V. E.; Benedetti, D.; Bolla, G.; Bortoletto, D.; De Mattia, M.; Everett, A.; Hu, Z.; Jha, M. K.; Jones, M.; Jung, K.; Kress, M.; Leonardo, N.; Lopes Pegna, D.; Maroussov, V.; Merkel, P.; Miller, D. H.; Neumeister, N.; Radburn-Smith, B. C.; Shipsey, I.; Silvers, D.; Svyatkovskiy, A.; Wang, F.; Xie, W.; Xu, L.; Yoo, H. D.; Zablocki, J.; Zheng, Y.; Parashar, N.; Stupak, J.; Adair, A.; Akgun, B.; Ecklund, K. M.; Geurts, F. J. M.; Li, W.; Michlin, B.; Padley, B. P.; Redjimi, R.; Roberts, J.; Zabel, J.; Betchart, B.; Bodek, A.; Covarelli, R.; de Barbaro, P.; Demina, R.; Eshaq, Y.; Ferbel, T.; Garcia-Bellido, A.; Goldenzweig, P.; Han, J.; Harel, A.; Khukhunaishvili, A.; Miner, D. C.; Petrillo, G.; Vishnevskiy, D.; Ciesielski, R.; Demortier, L.; Goulianos, K.; Lungu, G.; Mesropian, C.; Arora, S.; Barker, A.; Chou, J. P.; Contreras-Campana, C.; Contreras-Campana, E.; Duggan, D.; Ferencek, D.; Gershtein, Y.; Gray, R.; Halkiadakis, E.; Hidas, D.; Lath, A.; Panwalkar, S.; Park, M.; Patel, R.; Rekovic, V.; Salur, S.; Schnetzer, S.; Seitz, C.; Somalwar, S.; Stone, R.; Thomas, S.; Thomassen, P.; Walker, M.; Rose, K.; Spanier, S.; York, A.; Bouhali, O.; Eusebi, R.; Flanagan, W.; Gilmore, J.; Kamon, T.; Khotilovich, V.; Krutelyov, V.; Montalvo, R.; Osipenkov, I.; Pakhotin, Y.; Perloff, A.; Roe, J.; Rose, A.; Safonov, A.; Sakuma, T.; Suarez, I.; Tatarinov, A.; Akchurin, N.; Cowden, C.; Damgov, J.; Dragoiu, C.; Dudero, P. R.; Faulkner, J.; Kovitanggoon, K.; Kunori, S.; Lee, S. W.; Libeiro, T.; Volobouev, I.; Appelt, E.; Delannoy, A. G.; Greene, S.; Gurrola, A.; Johns, W.; Maguire, C.; Mao, Y.; Melo, A.; Sharma, M.; Sheldon, P.; Snook, B.; Tuo, S.; Velkovska, J.; Arenton, M. W.; Boutle, S.; Cox, B.; Francis, B.; Goodell, J.; Hirosky, R.; Ledovskoy, A.; Li, H.; Lin, C.; Neu, C.; Wood, J.; Gollapinni, S.; Harr, R.; Karchin, P. E.; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, C.; Lamichhane, P.; Belknap, D. A.; Carlsmith, D.; Cepeda, M.; Dasu, S.; Duric, S.; Friis, E.; Hall-Wilton, R.; Herndon, M.; Hervé, A.; Klabbers, P.; Klukas, J.; Lanaro, A.; Lazaridis, C.; Levine, A.; Loveless, R.; Mohapatra, A.; Ojalvo, I.; Perry, T.; Pierro, G. A.; Polese, G.; Ross, I.; Sarangi, T.; Savin, A.; Smith, W. H.; Woods, N.; CMS Collaboration

2014-08-01

The first search at the LHC for the extinction of QCD jet production is presented, using data collected with the CMS detector corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 10.7 fb-1 of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV. The extinction model studied in this analysis is motivated by the search for signatures of strong gravity at the TeV scale (terascale gravity) and assumes the existence of string couplings in the strong-coupling limit. In this limit, the string model predicts the suppression of all high-transverse-momentum standard model processes, including jet production, beyond a certain energy scale. To test this prediction, the measured transverse-momentum spectrum is compared to the theoretical prediction of the standard model. No significant deficit of events is found at high transverse momentum. A 95% confidence level lower limit of 3.3 TeV is set on the extinction mass scale.

"Despair" induced by extinction trials in the water maze: relationship with measures of anxiety in aged and adult rats.

PubMed

Schulz, Daniela; Huston, Joseph P; Buddenberg, Tim; Topic, Bianca

2007-03-01

We have previously reported that extinction of escape behavior in the water maze due to the removal of the platform coincided with the development of behavioral "despair" in aged and adult rats, as assessed by immobility. The present study examines further predictions derived from the hypothesis that the withholding of reinforcement induces behaviors akin to depression. We tested for correlations between extinction performance and immobility, as well as between immobility and measures of anxiety in aged and adult rats. Age comparisons were also performed on these variables. Forty aged and 29 adult male Wistar rats (24 and 3 months old, respectively) were examined in the open field, black/white box and elevated-plus maze followed by 6 days of training in the water maze hidden platform task and 8 days of extinction without the platform. Indices of immobility increased over trials of extinction, with the aged showing higher levels, earlier onsets and larger slope increases of immobility than the adults. A lower resistance-to-extinction was predictive of more "despair" in both age groups. Between-group differences in the open field, black/white box and elevated-plus maze indicated that the aged showed more anxiety-like behavior than the adults and/or explored these environments less. Within the aged group, indicators of fearfulness in the three tests were predictive of higher levels of "despair". The extinction-despair model is held to provide the promise of a conceptual and empirical model of human depression that is the consequence of withdrawal of reinforcement.

Human impacts on the rates of recent, present, and future bird extinctions.

PubMed

Pimm, Stuart; Raven, Peter; Peterson, Alan; Sekercioglu, Cagan H; Ehrlich, Paul R

2006-07-18

Unqualified, the statement that approximately 1.3% of the approximately 10,000 presently known bird species have become extinct since A.D. 1500 yields an estimate of approximately 26 extinctions per million species per year (or 26 E/MSY). This is higher than the benchmark rate of approximately 1 E/MSY before human impacts, but is a serious underestimate. First, Polynesian expansion across the Pacific also exterminated many species well before European explorations. Second, three factors increase the rate: (i) The number of known extinctions before 1800 is increasing as taxonomists describe new species from skeletal remains. (ii) One should calculate extinction rates over the years since taxonomists described the species. Most bird species were described only after 1850. (iii) Some species are probably extinct; there is reluctance to declare them so prematurely. Thus corrected, recent extinction rates are approximately 100 E/MSY. In the last decades, the rate is <50 E/MSY, but would be 150 E/MSY were it not for conservation efforts. Increasing numbers of extinctions are on continents, whereas previously most were on islands. We predict a 21st century rate of approximately 1,000 E/MSY. Extinction threatens 12% of bird species; another 12% have small geographical ranges and live where human actions rapidly destroy their habitats. If present forest losses continue, extinction rates will reach 1,500 E/MSY by the century's end. Invasive species, expanding human technologies, and global change will harm additional species. Birds are poor models for predicting extinction rates for other taxa. Human actions threaten higher fractions of other well known taxa than they do birds. Moreover, people take special efforts to protect birds.

Human impacts on the rates of recent, present, and future bird extinctions

PubMed Central

Pimm, Stuart; Raven, Peter; Peterson, Alan; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Ehrlich, Paul R.

2006-01-01

Unqualified, the statement that ≈1.3% of the ≈10,000 presently known bird species have become extinct since A.D. 1500 yields an estimate of ≈26 extinctions per million species per year (or 26 E/MSY). This is higher than the benchmark rate of ≈1 E/MSY before human impacts, but is a serious underestimate. First, Polynesian expansion across the Pacific also exterminated many species well before European explorations. Second, three factors increase the rate: (i) The number of known extinctions before 1800 is increasing as taxonomists describe new species from skeletal remains. (ii) One should calculate extinction rates over the years since taxonomists described the species. Most bird species were described only after 1850. (iii) Some species are probably extinct; there is reluctance to declare them so prematurely. Thus corrected, recent extinction rates are ≈100 E/MSY. In the last decades, the rate is <50 E/MSY, but would be 150 E/MSY were it not for conservation efforts. Increasing numbers of extinctions are on continents, whereas previously most were on islands. We predict a 21st century rate of ≈1,000 E/MSY. Extinction threatens 12% of bird species; another 12% have small geographical ranges and live where human actions rapidly destroy their habitats. If present forest losses continue, extinction rates will reach 1,500 E/MSY by the century’s end. Invasive species, expanding human technologies, and global change will harm additional species. Birds are poor models for predicting extinction rates for other taxa. Human actions threaten higher fractions of other well known taxa than they do birds. Moreover, people take special efforts to protect birds. PMID:16829570

Comparative dynamics of avian communities across edges and interiors of North American ecoregions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, K.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Sauer, J.R.; Hines, J.E.

2006-01-01

Aim Based on a priori hypotheses, we developed predictions about how avian communities might differ at the edges vs. interiors of ecoregions. Specifically, we predicted lower species richness and greater local turnover and extinction probabilities for regional edges. We tested these predictions using North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data across nine ecoregions over a 20-year time period. Location Data from 2238 BBS routes within nine ecoregions of the United States were used. Methods The estimation methods used accounted for species detection probabilities < 1. Parameter estimates for species richness, local turnover and extinction probabilities were obtained using the program COMDYN. We examined the difference in community-level parameters estimated from within exterior edges (the habitat interface between ecoregions), interior edges (the habitat interface between two bird conservation regions within the same ecoregion) and interior (habitat excluding interfaces). General linear models were constructed to examine sources of variation in community parameters for five ecoregions (containing all three habitat types) and all nine ecoregions (containing two habitat types). Results Analyses provided evidence that interior habitats and interior edges had on average higher bird species richness than exterior edges, providing some evidence of reduced species richness near habitat edges. Lower average extinction probabilities and turnover rates in interior habitats (five-region analysis) provided some support for our predictions about these quantities. However, analyses directed at all three response variables, i.e. species richness, local turnover, and local extinction probability, provided evidence of an interaction between habitat and region, indicating that the relationships did not hold in all regions. Main conclusions The overall predictions of lower species richness, higher local turnover and extinction probabilities in regional edge habitats, as opposed to interior habitats, were generally supported. However, these predicted tendencies did not hold in all regions.

Extinction of Pavlovian conditioning: The influence of trial number and reinforcement history.

PubMed

Chan, C K J; Harris, Justin A

2017-08-01

Pavlovian conditioning is sensitive to the temporal relationship between the conditioned stimulus (CS) and the unconditioned stimulus (US). This has motivated models that describe learning as a process that continuously updates associative strength during the trial or specifically encodes the CS-US interval. These models predict that extinction of responding is also continuous, such that response loss is proportional to the cumulative duration of exposure to the CS without the US. We review evidence showing that this prediction is incorrect, and that extinction is trial-based rather than time-based. We also present two experiments that test the importance of trials versus time on the Partial Reinforcement Extinction Effect (PREE), in which responding extinguishes more slowly for a CS that was inconsistently reinforced with the US than for a consistently reinforced one. We show that increasing the number of extinction trials of the partially reinforced CS, relative to the consistently reinforced CS, overcomes the PREE. However, increasing the duration of extinction trials by the same amount does not overcome the PREE. We conclude that animals learn about the likelihood of the US per trial during conditioning, and learn trial-by-trial about the absence of the US during extinction. Moreover, what they learn about the likelihood of the US during conditioning affects how sensitive they are to the absence of the US during extinction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Renewal, Resurgence, and Alternative Reinforcement Context

PubMed Central

Sweeney, Mary M.; Shahan, Timothy A.

2015-01-01

Resurgence, relapse induced by the removal of alternative reinforcement, and renewal, relapse induced by a change in contextual stimuli, are typically studied separately in operant conditioning paradigms. In analogous treatments of operant problem behavior, aspects of both relapse phenomena can operate simultaneously. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine a novel method for studying resurgence and renewal in the same experimental preparation. An alternative source of reinforcement was available during extinction for one group of rats (a typical resurgence preparation). Another group experienced an operant renewal preparation in which the extinction context was distinguished via olfactory and visual stimuli. A third group experienced alternative reinforcement delivery in the new context, a novel combination of typical resurgence and renewal preparations. Removal of alternative reinforcement and/or a change in context induced relapse, relative to an extinction-only control group. When alternative reinforcement was delivered in a novel context, the alternative response was less persistent relative to when extinction of the alternative response took place in the context in which it was trained. This methodology might be used to illustrate shared (or distinct) mechanisms of resurgence and renewal, and to determine how delivering alternative reinforcement in another context may affect persistence and relapse. PMID:25936876

An allometric approach to quantify the extinction vulnerability of birds and mammals.

PubMed

Hilbers, J P; Schipper, A M; Hendriks, A J; Verones, F; Pereira, H M; Huijbregts, M A J

2016-03-01

Methods to quantify the vulnerability of species to extinction are typically limited by the availability of species-specific input data pertaining to life-history characteristics and population dynamics. This lack of data hampers global biodiversity assessments and conservation planning. Here, we developed a new framework that systematically quantifies extinction risk based on allometric relationships between various wildlife demographic parameters and body size. These allometric relationships have a solid theoretical and ecological foundation. Extinction risk indicators included are (1) the probability of extinction, (2) the mean time to extinction, and (3) the critical patch size. We applied our framework to assess the global extinction vulnerability of terrestrial carnivorous and non-carnivorous birds and mammals. Irrespective of the indicator used, large-bodied species were found to be more vulnerable to extinction than their smaller counterparts. The patterns with body size were confirmed for all species groups by a comparison with IUCN data on the proportion of extant threatened species: the models correctly predicted a multimodal distribution with body size for carnivorous birds and a monotonic distribution for mammals and non-carnivorous birds. Carnivorous mammals were found to have higher extinction risks than non-carnivores, while birds were more prone to extinction than mammals. These results are explained by the allometric relationships, predicting the vulnerable species groups to have lower intrinsic population growth rates, smaller population sizes, lower carrying capacities, or larger dispersal distances, which, in turn, increase the importance of losses due to environmental stochastic effects and dispersal activities. Our study is the first to integrate population viability analysis and allometry into a novel, process-based framework that is able to quantify extinction risk of a large number of species without requiring data-intensive, species-specific information. The framework facilitates the estimation of extinction vulnerabilities of data-deficient species. It may be applied to forecast extinction vulnerability in response to a changing environment, by incorporating quantitative relationships between wildlife demographic parameters and environmental drivers like habitat alteration, climate change, or hunting.

Molecular mechanisms underlying formation of long-term reward memories and extinction memories in the honeybee (Apis mellifera)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

The honeybee (Apis mellifera) has long served as an invertebrate model organism for reward learning and memory research. Its capacity for learning and memory formation is rooted in the ecological need to efficiently collect nectar and pollen during summer to ensure survival of the hive during winter. Foraging bees learn to associate a flower's characteristic features with a reward in a way that resembles olfactory appetitive classical conditioning, a learning paradigm that is used to study mechanisms underlying learning and memory formation in the honeybee. Due to a plethora of studies on appetitive classical conditioning and phenomena related to it, the honeybee is one of the best characterized invertebrate model organisms from a learning psychological point of view. Moreover, classical conditioning and associated behavioral phenomena are surprisingly similar in honeybees and vertebrates, suggesting a convergence of underlying neuronal processes, including the molecular mechanisms that contribute to them. Here I review current thinking on the molecular mechanisms underlying long-term memory (LTM) formation in honeybees following classical conditioning and extinction, demonstrating that an in-depth analysis of the molecular mechanisms of classical conditioning in honeybees might add to our understanding of associative learning in honeybees and vertebrates. PMID:25225299

Characterization of light scattering in nematic droplet-polymer films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinugasa, Naoki; Yano, Yuichi; Takigawa, Akio; Kawahara, Hideo

1992-06-01

The optical properties of nematic droplet-polymer films were studied both in the on and off state using Lambert-Beer''s law to characterize their scattering phenomena. For the preparation of the devices, NCAP process was employed with the different diameter, distribution, shape, and density of nematic droplets. Their cell thickness and refractive indices concerning the birefringence of liquid crystals were also controlled. The results showed that the scattering phenomena of nematic droplet-polymer films were likely caused by two types of features. One, related to the surface area of nematic droplets, was the difference of the refractive indices in the interface between liquid crystals and polymer matrix. The other, related to the liquid crystal volume inside the nematic droplets, was the birefringence of liquid crystals. Considering such relations, the extinction coefficient of Lambert-Beer''s law could be described by the sum of the area in the interface multiplied by the difference of the refractive indices between two materials and the liquid crystal volume multiplied by their birefringence. Furthermore, it was found their parallel transmittance in the off state and haze ratio in the on state were well characterized by such extinction coefficient of Lambert-Beer''s law.

Noise in ecosystems: a short review.

PubMed

Spagnolo, B; Valenti, D; Fiasconaro, A

2004-06-01

Noise, through its interaction with the nonlinearity of the living systems, can give rise to counter-intuitive phenomena such as stochastic resonance, noise-delayed extinction, temporal oscillations, and spatial patterns. In this paper we briefly review the noise-induced effects in three different ecosystems: (i) two competing species; (ii) three interacting species, one predator and two preys, and (iii) N-interacting species. The transient dynamics of these ecosystems are analyzed through generalized Lotka-Volterra equations in the presence of multiplicative noise, which models the interaction between the species and the environment. The interaction parameter between the species is random in cases (i) and (iii), and a periodical function, which accounts for the environmental temperature, in case (ii). We find noise-induced phenomena such as quasi-deterministic oscillations, stochastic resonance, noise-delayed extinction, and noise-induced pattern formation with nonmonotonic behaviors of patterns areas and of the density correlation as a function of the multiplicative noise intensity. The asymptotic behavior of the time average of the i(th) population when the ecosystem is composed of a great number of interacting species is obtained and the effect of the noise on the asymptotic probability distributions of the populations is discussed.

Antipredator defenses predict diversification rates

PubMed Central

Arbuckle, Kevin; Speed, Michael P.

2015-01-01

The “escape-and-radiate” hypothesis predicts that antipredator defenses facilitate adaptive radiations by enabling escape from constraints of predation, diversified habitat use, and subsequently speciation. Animals have evolved diverse strategies to reduce the direct costs of predation, including cryptic coloration and behavior, chemical defenses, mimicry, and advertisement of unprofitability (conspicuous warning coloration). Whereas the survival consequences of these alternative defenses for individuals are well-studied, little attention has been given to the macroevolutionary consequences of alternative forms of defense. Here we show, using amphibians as the first, to our knowledge, large-scale empirical test in animals, that there are important macroevolutionary consequences of alternative defenses. However, the escape-and-radiate hypothesis does not adequately describe them, due to its exclusive focus on speciation. We examined how rates of speciation and extinction vary across defensive traits throughout amphibians. Lineages that use chemical defenses show higher rates of speciation as predicted by escape-and-radiate but also show higher rates of extinction compared with those without chemical defense. The effect of chemical defense is a net reduction in diversification compared with lineages without chemical defense. In contrast, acquisition of conspicuous coloration (often used as warning signals or in mimicry) is associated with heightened speciation rates but unchanged extinction rates. We conclude that predictions based on the escape-and-radiate hypothesis must incorporate the effect of traits on both speciation and extinction, which is rarely considered in such studies. Our results also suggest that knowledge of defensive traits could have a bearing on the predictability of extinction, perhaps especially important in globally threatened taxa such as amphibians. PMID:26483488

Preventing the return of fear using reconsolidation updating and methylene blue is differentially dependent on extinction learning

PubMed Central

Auchter, Allison M.; Shumake, Jason; Gonzalez-Lima, Francisco; Monfils, Marie H.

2017-01-01

Many factors account for how well individuals extinguish conditioned fears, such as genetic variability, learning capacity and conditions under which extinction training is administered. We predicted that memory-based interventions would be more effective to reduce the reinstatement of fear in subjects genetically predisposed to display more extinction learning. We tested this hypothesis in rats genetically selected for differences in fear extinction using two strategies: (1) attenuation of fear memory using post-retrieval extinction training, and (2) pharmacological enhancement of the extinction memory after extinction training by low-dose USP methylene blue (MB). Subjects selectively bred for divergent extinction phenotypes were fear conditioned to a tone stimulus and administered either standard extinction training or retrieval + extinction. Following extinction, subjects received injections of saline or MB. Both reconsolidation updating and MB administration showed beneficial effects in preventing fear reinstatement, but differed in the groups they targeted. Reconsolidation updating showed an overall effect in reducing fear reinstatement, whereas pharmacological memory enhancement using MB was an effective strategy, but only for individuals who were responsive to extinction. PMID:28397861

Competition Between Extinction and Enhancement in Surface Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy.

PubMed

van Dijk, Thomas; Sivapalan, Sean T; Devetter, Brent M; Yang, Timothy K; Schulmerich, Matthew V; Murphy, Catherine J; Bhargava, Rohit; Carney, P Scott

2013-04-04

Conjugated metallic nanoparticles are a promising means to achieve ultrasensitive and multiplexed sensing in intact three-dimensional samples, especially for biological applications, via surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS). We show that enhancement and extinction are linked and compete in a collection of metallic nanoparticles. Counterintuitively, the Raman signal vanishes when nanoparticles are excited at their plasmon resonance, while increasing nanoparticle concentrations at off-resonance excitation sometimes leads to decreased signal. We develop an effective medium theory that explains both phenomena. Optimal choices of excitation wavelength, individual particle enhancement factor and concentrations are indicated. The same processes which give rise to enhancement also lead to increased extinction of both the illumination and the Raman scattered light. Nanoparticles attenuate the incident field (blue) and at the same time provide local enhancement for SERS. Likewise the radiation of the Raman-scattered field (green) is enhanced by the near-by sphere but extinguished by the rest of the spheres in the suspension on propagation.

The role of cool-flame chemistry in quasi-steady combustion and extinction of n-heptane droplets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paczko, Guenter; Peters, Norbert; Seshadri, Kalyanasundaram; Williams, Forman Arthur

2014-09-01

Experiments on the combustion of large n-heptane droplets, performed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration in the International Space Station, revealed a second stage of continued quasi-steady burning, supported by low-temperature chemistry, that follows radiative extinction of the first stage of burning, which is supported by normal hot-flame chemistry. The second stage of combustion experienced diffusive extinction, after which a large vapour cloud was observed to form around the droplet. In the present work, a 770-step reduced chemical-kinetic mechanism and a new 62-step skeletal chemical-kinetic mechanism, developed as an extension of an earlier 56-step mechanism, are employed to calculate the droplet burning rates, flame structures, and extinction diameters for this cool-flame regime. The calculations are performed for quasi-steady burning with the mixture fraction as the independent variable, which is then related to the physical variables of droplet combustion. The predictions with the new mechanism, which agree well with measured autoignition times, reveal that, in decreasing order of abundance, H2O, CO, H2O2, CH2O, and C2H4 are the principal reaction products during the low-temperature stage and that, during this stage, there is substantial leakage of n-heptane and O2 through the flame, and very little production of CO2 with no soot in the mechanism. The fuel leakage has been suggested to be the source of the observed vapour cloud that forms after flame extinction. While the new skeletal chemical-kinetic mechanism facilitates understanding of the chemical kinetics and predicts ignition times well, its predicted droplet diameters at extinction are appreciably larger than observed experimentally, but predictions with the 770-step reduced chemical-kinetic mechanism are in reasonably good agreement with experiment. The computations show how the key ketohydroperoxide compounds control the diffusion-flame structure and its extinction.

Fluctuations in epidemic modeling - disease extinction and control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Ira

2009-03-01

The analysis of infectious disease fluctuations has recently seen an increasing rise in the use of new tools and models from stochastic dynamics and statistical physics. Examples arise in modeling fluctuations of multi-strain diseases, in modeling adaptive social behavior and its impact on disease fluctuations, and in the analysis of disease extinction in finite population models. Proper stochastic model reduction [1] allows one to predict unobserved fluctuations from observed data in multi-strain models [2]. Degree alteration and power law behavior is predicted in adaptive network epidemic models [3,4]. And extinction rates derived from large fluctuation theory exhibit scaling with respect to distance to the bifurcation point of disease onset with an unusual exponent [5]. In addition to outbreak prediction, another main goal of epidemic modeling is one of eliminating the disease to extinction through various control mechanisms, such as vaccine implementation or quarantine. In this talk, a description will be presented of the fluctuational behavior of several epidemic models and their extinction rates. A general framework and analysis of the effect of non-Gaussian control actuations which enhance the rate to disease extinction will be described. In particular, in it is shown that even in the presence of a small Poisson distributed vaccination program, there is an exponentially enhanced rate to disease extinction. These ideas may lead to improved methods of controlling disease where random vaccinations are prevalent. [4pt] Recent papers:[0pt] [1] E. Forgoston and I. B. Schwartz, ``Escape Rates in a Stochastic Environment with Multiple Scales,'' arXiv:0809.1345 2008.[0pt] [2] L. B. Shaw, L. Billings, I. B. Schwartz, ``Using dimension reduction to improve outbreak predictability of multi-strain diseases,'' J. Math. Bio. 55, 1 2007.[0pt] [3] L. B. Shaw and I. B. Schwartz, ``Fluctuating epidemics on adaptive networks,'' Physical Review E 77, 066101 2008.[0pt] [4] L. B. Shaw and I. B. Schwartz, ``Noise induced dynamics in adaptivenetworks with applications to epidemiology,'' arXiv:0807.3455 2008.[0pt] [5] M. I. Dykman, I. B. Schwartz, A. S. Landsman, ``Disease Extinction in the Presence of Random Vaccination,'' Phys. Rev. Letts. 101, 078101 2008.

The cost of being valuable: predictors of extinction risk in marine invertebrates exploited as luxury seafood

PubMed Central

Purcell, Steven W.; Polidoro, Beth A.; Hamel, Jean-François; Gamboa, Ruth U.; Mercier, Annie

2014-01-01

Extinction risk has been linked to biological and anthropogenic variables. Prediction of extinction risk in valuable fauna may not follow mainstream drivers when species are exploited for international markets. We use results from an International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment of extinction risk in all 377 known species of sea cucumber within the order Aspidochirotida, many of which are exploited worldwide as luxury seafood for Asian markets. Extinction risk was primarily driven by high market value, compounded by accessibility and familiarity (well known) in the marketplace. Extinction risk in marine animals often relates closely to body size and small geographical range but our study shows a clear exception. Conservation must not lose sight of common species, especially those of high value. Greater human population density and poorer economies in the geographical ranges of endangered species illustrate that anthropogenic variables can also predict extinction risks in marine animals. Local-level regulatory measures must prevent opportunistic exploitation of high-value species. Trade agreements, for example CITES, may aid conservation but will depend on international technical support to low-income tropical countries. The high proportion of data deficient species also stresses a need for research on the ecology and population demographics of unglamorous invertebrates. PMID:24598425

The cost of being valuable: predictors of extinction risk in marine invertebrates exploited as luxury seafood.

PubMed

Purcell, Steven W; Polidoro, Beth A; Hamel, Jean-François; Gamboa, Ruth U; Mercier, Annie

2014-04-22

Extinction risk has been linked to biological and anthropogenic variables. Prediction of extinction risk in valuable fauna may not follow mainstream drivers when species are exploited for international markets. We use results from an International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment of extinction risk in all 377 known species of sea cucumber within the order Aspidochirotida, many of which are exploited worldwide as luxury seafood for Asian markets. Extinction risk was primarily driven by high market value, compounded by accessibility and familiarity (well known) in the marketplace. Extinction risk in marine animals often relates closely to body size and small geographical range but our study shows a clear exception. Conservation must not lose sight of common species, especially those of high value. Greater human population density and poorer economies in the geographical ranges of endangered species illustrate that anthropogenic variables can also predict extinction risks in marine animals. Local-level regulatory measures must prevent opportunistic exploitation of high-value species. Trade agreements, for example CITES, may aid conservation but will depend on international technical support to low-income tropical countries. The high proportion of data deficient species also stresses a need for research on the ecology and population demographics of unglamorous invertebrates.

HDAC inhibitors as cognitive enhancers in fear, anxiety and trauma therapy: where do we stand?

PubMed Central

Whittle, Nigel; Singewald, Nicolas

2014-01-01

A novel strategy to treat anxiety and fear-related disorders such as phobias, panic and PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder) is combining CBT (cognitive behavioural therapy), including extinction-based exposure therapy, with cognitive enhancers. By targeting and boosting mechanisms underlying learning, drug development in this field aims at designing CBT-augmenting compounds that help to overcome extinction learning deficits, promote long-term fear inhibition and thus support relapse prevention. Progress in revealing the role of epigenetic regulation of specific genes associated with extinction memory generation has opened new avenues in this direction. The present review examines recent evidence from pre-clinical studies showing that increasing histone acetylation, either via genetic or pharmacological inhibition of HDACs (histone deacetylases) by e.g. vorinostat/SAHA (suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid), entinostat/MS-275, sodium butyrate, TSA (trichostatin A) or VPA (valproic acid), or by targeting HATs (histone acetyltransferases), augments fear extinction and, importantly, generates a long-term extinction memory that can protect from return of fear phenomena. The molecular mechanisms and pathways involved including BDNF (brain-derived neurotrophic factor) and NMDA (N-methyl-D-aspartate) receptor signalling are just beginning to be revealed. First studies in healthy humans are in support of extinction-facilitating effects of HDAC inhibitors. Very recent evidence that HDAC inhibitors can rescue deficits in extinction-memory-impaired rodents indicates a potential clinical utility of this approach also for exposure therapy-resistant patients. Important future work includes investigation of the long-term safety aspects of HDAC inhibitor treatment, as well as design of isotype(s)-specific inhibitors. Taken together, HDAC inhibitors display promising potential as pharmacological adjuncts to augment the efficacy of exposure-based approaches in anxiety and trauma therapy. PMID:24646280

Life history trade-off moderates model predictions of diversity loss from climate change

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change can trigger species range shifts, local extinctions and changes in diversity. Species interactions and dispersal capacity are important mediators of community responses to climate change. The interaction between multispecies competition and variation in dispersal capacity has recently been shown to exacerbate the effects of climate change on diversity and to increase predictions of extinction risk dramatically. Dispersal capacity, however, is part of a species’ overall ecological strategy and are likely to trade off with other aspects of its life history that influence population growth and persistence. In plants, a well-known example is the trade-off between seed mass and seed number. The presence of such a trade-off might buffer the diversity loss predicted by models with random but neutral (i.e. not impacting fitness otherwise) differences in dispersal capacity. Using a trait-based metacommunity model along a warming climatic gradient the effect of three different dispersal scenarios on model predictions of diversity change were compared. Adding random variation in species dispersal capacity caused extinctions by the introduction of strong fitness differences due an inherent property of the dispersal kernel. Simulations including a fitness-equalising trade-off based on empirical relationships between seed mass (here affecting dispersal distance, establishment probability, and seedling biomass) and seed number (fecundity) maintained higher initial species diversity and predicted lower extinction risk and diversity loss during climate change than simulations with variable dispersal capacity. Large seeded species persisted during climate change, but developed lags behind their climate niche that may cause extinction debts. Small seeded species were more extinction-prone during climate change but tracked their niches through dispersal and colonisation, despite competitive resistance from residents. Life history trade-offs involved in coexistence mechanisms may increase community resilience to future climate change and are useful guides for model development. PMID:28520770

Stochastic hybrid delay population dynamics: well-posed models and extinction.

PubMed

Yuan, Chenggui; Mao, Xuerong; Lygeros, John

2009-01-01

Nonlinear differential equations have been used for decades for studying fluctuations in the populations of species, interactions of species with the environment, and competition and symbiosis between species. Over the years, the original non-linear models have been embellished with delay terms, stochastic terms and more recently discrete dynamics. In this paper, we investigate stochastic hybrid delay population dynamics (SHDPD), a very general class of population dynamics that comprises all of these phenomena. For this class of systems, we provide sufficient conditions to ensure that SHDPD have global positive, ultimately bounded solutions, a minimum requirement for a realistic, well-posed model. We then study the question of extinction and establish conditions under which an ecosystem modelled by SHDPD is doomed.

Thermoregulation of two sympatric species of horned lizards in the Chihuahuan Desert and their local extinction risk.

PubMed

Lara-Reséndiz, Rafael A; Gadsden, Héctor; Rosen, Philip C; Sinervo, Barry; Méndez-De la Cruz, Fausto R

2015-02-01

Thermoregulatory studies of ectothermic organisms are an important tool for ecological physiology, evolutionary ecology and behavior, and recently have become central for evaluating and predicting global climate change impacts. Here, we present a novel combination of field, laboratory, and modeling approaches to examine body temperature regulation, habitat thermal quality, and hours of thermal restriction on the activity of two sympatric, aridlands horned lizards (Phrynosoma cornutum and Phrynosoma modestum) at three contrasting Chihuahuan Desert sites in Mexico. Using these physiological data, we estimate local extinction risk under predicted climate change within their current geographical distribution. We followed the Hertz et al. (1993, Am. Nat., 142, 796-818) protocol for evaluating thermoregulation and the Sinervo et al. (2010, Science, 328, 894-899) eco-physiological model of extinction under climatic warming. Thermoregulatory indices suggest that both species thermoregulate effectively despite living in habitats of low thermal quality, although high environmental temperatures restrict the activity period of both species. Based on our measurements, if air temperature rises as predicted by climate models, the extinction model projects that P. cornutum will become locally extinct at 6% of sites by 2050 and 18% by 2080 and P. modestum will become extinct at 32% of sites by 2050 and 60% by 2080. The method we apply, using widely available or readily acquired thermal data, along with the modeling, appeared to identify several unique ecological traits that seemingly exacerbate climate sensitivity of P. modestum. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hybridization and extinction.

PubMed

Todesco, Marco; Pascual, Mariana A; Owens, Gregory L; Ostevik, Katherine L; Moyers, Brook T; Hübner, Sariel; Heredia, Sylvia M; Hahn, Min A; Caseys, Celine; Bock, Dan G; Rieseberg, Loren H

2016-08-01

Hybridization may drive rare taxa to extinction through genetic swamping, where the rare form is replaced by hybrids, or by demographic swamping, where population growth rates are reduced due to the wasteful production of maladaptive hybrids. Conversely, hybridization may rescue the viability of small, inbred populations. Understanding the factors that contribute to destructive versus constructive outcomes of hybridization is key to managing conservation concerns. Here, we survey the literature for studies of hybridization and extinction to identify the ecological, evolutionary, and genetic factors that critically affect extinction risk through hybridization. We find that while extinction risk is highly situation dependent, genetic swamping is much more frequent than demographic swamping. In addition, human involvement is associated with increased risk and high reproductive isolation with reduced risk. Although climate change is predicted to increase the risk of hybridization-induced extinction, we find little empirical support for this prediction. Similarly, theoretical and experimental studies imply that genetic rescue through hybridization may be equally or more probable than demographic swamping, but our literature survey failed to support this claim. We conclude that halting the introduction of hybridization-prone exotics and restoring mature and diverse habitats that are resistant to hybrid establishment should be management priorities.

Experimental study of transient paths to the extinction in sonoluminescence.

PubMed

Urteaga, Raúl; Dellavale, Damián; Puente, Gabriela F; Bonetto, Fabián J

2008-09-01

An experimental study of the extinction threshold of single bubble sonoluminescence in an air-water system is presented. Different runs from 5% to 100% of air concentrations were performed at room pressure and temperature. The intensity of sonoluminescence (SL) and time of collapse (t(c)) with respect to the driving were measured while the acoustic pressure was linearly increased from the onset of SL until the bubble extinction. The experimental data were compared with theoretical predictions for shape and position instability thresholds. It was found that the extinction of the bubble is determined by different mechanisms depending on the air concentration. For concentrations greater than approximately 30%-40% with respect to the saturation, the parametric instability limits the maximum value of R(0) that can be reached. On the other hand, for lower concentrations, the extinction appears as a limitation in the time of collapse. Two different mechanisms emerge in this range, i.e., the Bjerknes force and the Rayleigh-Taylor instability. The bubble acoustic emission produces backreaction on the bubble itself. This effect occurs in both mechanisms and is essential for the correct prediction of the extinction threshold in the case of low air dissolved concentration.

Impact as a general cause of extinction: A feasibility test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raup, David M.

1988-01-01

Large body impact has been implicated as the possible cause of several extinction events. This is entirely plausible if one accepts two propositions: (1) that impacts of large comets and asteroids produce environmental effects severe enough to cause significant species extinctions and (2) that the estimates of comet and asteroid flux for the Phanerozoic are approximately correct. A resonable next step is to investigate the possibility that impact could be a significant factor in the broader Phanerozoic extinction record, not limited merely to a few events of mass extinction. Monte Carlo simulation experiments based on existing flux estimates and reasonable predictions of the relationship between bolide diameter and extinction are discussed. The simulation results raise the serious possibility that large body impact may be a more pervasive factor in extinction than has been assumed heretofore. At the very least, the experiments show that the comet and asteroid flux estimates combined with a reasonable kill curve produces a reasonable extinction record, complete with occasional mass extinctions and the irregular, lower intensity extinctions commonly called background extinction.

Ecological selectivity of the emerging mass extinction in the oceans.

PubMed

Payne, Jonathan L; Bush, Andrew M; Heim, Noel A; Knope, Matthew L; McCauley, Douglas J

2016-09-16

To better predict the ecological and evolutionary effects of the emerging biodiversity crisis in the modern oceans, we compared the association between extinction threat and ecological traits in modern marine animals to associations observed during past extinction events using a database of 2497 marine vertebrate and mollusc genera. We find that extinction threat in the modern oceans is strongly associated with large body size, whereas past extinction events were either nonselective or preferentially removed smaller-bodied taxa. Pelagic animals were victimized more than benthic animals during previous mass extinctions but are not preferentially threatened in the modern ocean. The differential importance of large-bodied animals to ecosystem function portends greater future ecological disruption than that caused by similar levels of taxonomic loss in past mass extinction events. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Anosognosia, neglect, extinction and lesion site predict impairment of daily living after right-hemispheric stroke.

PubMed

Vossel, Simone; Weiss, Peter H; Eschenbeck, Philipp; Fink, Gereon R

2013-01-01

Right-hemispheric stroke can give rise to manifold neuropsychological deficits, in particular, impairments of spatial perception which are often accompanied by reduced self-awareness of these deficits (anosognosia). To date, the specific contribution of these deficits to a patient's difficulties in daily life activities remains to be elucidated. In 55 patients with right-hemispheric stroke we investigated the predictive value of different neglect-related symptoms, visual extinction and anosognosia for the performance of standardized activities of daily living (ADL). The additional impact of lesion location was examined using voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping. Step-wise linear regression revealed that anosognosia for visuospatial deficits was the most important predictor for performance in standardized ADL. In addition, motor-intentional and perceptual-attentional neglect, extinction and cancellation task performance significantly predicted ADL performance. Lesions comprising the right frontal and cingulate cortex and adjacent white matter explained additional variance in the performance of standardized ADL, in that damage to these areas was related to lower performance than predicted by the regression model only. Our data show a decisive role of anosognosia for visuospatial deficits for impaired ADL and therefore outcome/disability after stroke. The findings further demonstrate that the severity of neglect and extinction also predicts ADL performance. Our results thus strongly suggest that right-hemispheric stroke patients should not only be routinely assessed for neglect and extinction but also for anosognosia to initiate appropriate rehabilitative treatment. The observation that right frontal lesions explain additional variance in ADL most likely reflects that dysfunction of the supervisory system also significantly impacts upon rehabilitation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kinetic effects of toluene blending on the extinction limit of n-decane diffusion flames

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Won, Sang Hee; Sun, Wenting; Ju, Yiguang

The impact of toluene addition in n-decane on OH concentrations, maximum heat release rates, and extinction limits were studied experimentally and computationally by using counterflow diffusion flames with laser induced fluorescence imaging. Sensitivity analyses of kinetic path ways and species transport on flame extinction were also conducted. The results showed that the extinction strain rate of n-decane/toluene/nitrogen flames decreased significantly with an increase of toluene addition and depended linearly on the maximum OH concentration. It was revealed that the maximum OH concentration, which depends on the fuel H/C ratio, can be used as an index of the radical pool andmore » chemical heat release rate, since it plays a significant role on the heat production via the reaction with other species, such as CO, H{sub 2}, and HCO. Experimental results further demonstrated that toluene addition in n-decane dramatically reduced the peak OH concentration via H abstraction reactions and accelerated flame extinction via kinetic coupling between toluene and n-decane mechanisms. Comparisons between experiments and simulations revealed that the current toluene mechanism significantly over-predicts the radical destruction rate, leading to under-prediction of extinction limits and OH concentrations, especially caused by the uncertainty of the H abstraction reaction from toluene, which rate coefficient has a difference by a factor of 5 in the tested toluene models. In addition, sensitivity analysis of diffusive transport showed that in addition to n-decane and toluene, the transport of OH and H also considerably affects the extinction limit. A reduced linear correlation between the extinction limits of n-decane/toluene blended fuels and the H/C ratio as well as the mean fuel molecular weight was obtained. The results suggest that an explicit prediction of the extinction limits of aromatic and alkane blended fuels can be established by using H/C ratio (or radical index) and the mean fuel molecular weight which represent the rates of radical production and the fuel transport, respectively. (author)« less

Contingency Awareness Shapes Acquisition and Extinction of Emotional Responses in a Conditioning Model of Pain-Related Fear

PubMed Central

Labrenz, Franziska; Icenhour, Adriane; Benson, Sven; Elsenbruch, Sigrid

2015-01-01

As a fundamental learning process, fear conditioning promotes the formation of associations between predictive cues and biologically significant signals. In its application to pain, conditioning may provide important insight into mechanisms underlying pain-related fear, although knowledge especially in interoceptive pain paradigms remains scarce. Furthermore, while the influence of contingency awareness on excitatory learning is subject of ongoing debate, its role in pain-related acquisition is poorly understood and essentially unknown regarding extinction as inhibitory learning. Therefore, we addressed the impact of contingency awareness on learned emotional responses to pain- and safety-predictive cues in a combined dataset of two pain-related conditioning studies. In total, 75 healthy participants underwent differential fear acquisition, during which rectal distensions as interoceptive unconditioned stimuli (US) were repeatedly paired with a predictive visual cue (conditioned stimulus; CS+) while another cue (CS−) was presented unpaired. During extinction, both CS were presented without US. CS valence, indicating learned emotional responses, and CS-US contingencies were assessed on visual analog scales (VAS). Based on an integrative measure of contingency accuracy, a median-split was performed to compare groups with low vs. high contingency accuracy regarding learned emotional responses. To investigate predictive value of contingency accuracy, regression analyses were conducted. Highly accurate individuals revealed more pronounced negative emotional responses to CS+ and increased positive responses to CS− when compared to participants with low contingency accuracy. Following extinction, highly accurate individuals had fully extinguished pain-predictive cue properties, while exhibiting persistent positive emotional responses to safety signals. In contrast, individuals with low accuracy revealed equally positive emotional responses to both, CS+ and CS−. Contingency accuracy predicted variance in the formation of positive responses to safety cues while no predictive value was found for danger cues following acquisition and for neither cue following extinction. Our findings underscore specific roles of learned danger and safety in pain-related acquisition and extinction. Contingency accuracy appears to distinctly impact learned emotional responses to safety and danger cues, supporting aversive learning to occur independently from CS-US awareness. The interplay of cognitive and emotional factors in shaping excitatory and inhibitory pain-related learning may contribute to altered pain processing, underscoring its clinical relevance in chronic pain. PMID:26640433

Contingency Awareness Shapes Acquisition and Extinction of Emotional Responses in a Conditioning Model of Pain-Related Fear.

PubMed

Labrenz, Franziska; Icenhour, Adriane; Benson, Sven; Elsenbruch, Sigrid

2015-01-01

As a fundamental learning process, fear conditioning promotes the formation of associations between predictive cues and biologically significant signals. In its application to pain, conditioning may provide important insight into mechanisms underlying pain-related fear, although knowledge especially in interoceptive pain paradigms remains scarce. Furthermore, while the influence of contingency awareness on excitatory learning is subject of ongoing debate, its role in pain-related acquisition is poorly understood and essentially unknown regarding extinction as inhibitory learning. Therefore, we addressed the impact of contingency awareness on learned emotional responses to pain- and safety-predictive cues in a combined dataset of two pain-related conditioning studies. In total, 75 healthy participants underwent differential fear acquisition, during which rectal distensions as interoceptive unconditioned stimuli (US) were repeatedly paired with a predictive visual cue (conditioned stimulus; CS(+)) while another cue (CS(-)) was presented unpaired. During extinction, both CS were presented without US. CS valence, indicating learned emotional responses, and CS-US contingencies were assessed on visual analog scales (VAS). Based on an integrative measure of contingency accuracy, a median-split was performed to compare groups with low vs. high contingency accuracy regarding learned emotional responses. To investigate predictive value of contingency accuracy, regression analyses were conducted. Highly accurate individuals revealed more pronounced negative emotional responses to CS(+) and increased positive responses to CS(-) when compared to participants with low contingency accuracy. Following extinction, highly accurate individuals had fully extinguished pain-predictive cue properties, while exhibiting persistent positive emotional responses to safety signals. In contrast, individuals with low accuracy revealed equally positive emotional responses to both, CS(+) and CS(-). Contingency accuracy predicted variance in the formation of positive responses to safety cues while no predictive value was found for danger cues following acquisition and for neither cue following extinction. Our findings underscore specific roles of learned danger and safety in pain-related acquisition and extinction. Contingency accuracy appears to distinctly impact learned emotional responses to safety and danger cues, supporting aversive learning to occur independently from CS-US awareness. The interplay of cognitive and emotional factors in shaping excitatory and inhibitory pain-related learning may contribute to altered pain processing, underscoring its clinical relevance in chronic pain.

Testing the adaptive radiation hypothesis for the lemurs of Madagascar.

PubMed

Herrera, James P

2017-01-01

Lemurs, the diverse, endemic primates of Madagascar, are thought to represent a classic example of adaptive radiation. Based on the most complete phylogeny of living and extinct lemurs yet assembled, I tested predictions of adaptive radiation theory by estimating rates of speciation, extinction and adaptive phenotypic evolution. As predicted, lemur speciation rate exceeded that of their sister clade by nearly twofold, indicating the diversification dynamics of lemurs and mainland relatives may have been decoupled. Lemur diversification rates did not decline over time, however, as predicted by adaptive radiation theory. Optimal body masses diverged among dietary and activity pattern niches as lineages diversified into unique multidimensional ecospace. Based on these results, lemurs only partially fulfil the predictions of adaptive radiation theory, with phenotypic evolution corresponding to an 'early burst' of adaptive differentiation. The results must be interpreted with caution, however, because over the long evolutionary history of lemurs (approx. 50 million years), the 'early burst' signal of adaptive radiation may have been eroded by extinction.

Testing the adaptive radiation hypothesis for the lemurs of Madagascar

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Lemurs, the diverse, endemic primates of Madagascar, are thought to represent a classic example of adaptive radiation. Based on the most complete phylogeny of living and extinct lemurs yet assembled, I tested predictions of adaptive radiation theory by estimating rates of speciation, extinction and adaptive phenotypic evolution. As predicted, lemur speciation rate exceeded that of their sister clade by nearly twofold, indicating the diversification dynamics of lemurs and mainland relatives may have been decoupled. Lemur diversification rates did not decline over time, however, as predicted by adaptive radiation theory. Optimal body masses diverged among dietary and activity pattern niches as lineages diversified into unique multidimensional ecospace. Based on these results, lemurs only partially fulfil the predictions of adaptive radiation theory, with phenotypic evolution corresponding to an ‘early burst’ of adaptive differentiation. The results must be interpreted with caution, however, because over the long evolutionary history of lemurs (approx. 50 million years), the ‘early burst’ signal of adaptive radiation may have been eroded by extinction. PMID:28280597

Flame Spread and Extinction Over a Thick Solid Fuel in Low-Velocity Opposed and Concurrent Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Feng; Lu, Zhanbin; Wang, Shuangfeng

2016-05-01

Flame spread and extinction phenomena over a thick PMMA in purely opposed and concurrent flows are investigated by conducting systematical experiments in a narrow channel apparatus. The present tests focus on low-velocity flow regime and hence complement experimental data previously reported for high and moderate velocity regimes. In the flow velocity range tested, the opposed flame is found to spread much faster than the concurrent flame at a given flow velocity. The measured spread rates for opposed and concurrent flames can be correlated by corresponding theoretical models of flame spread, indicating that existing models capture the main mechanisms controlling the flame spread. In low-velocity gas flows, however, the experimental results are observed to deviate from theoretical predictions. This may be attributed to the neglect of radiative heat loss in the theoretical models, whereas radiation becomes important for low-intensity flame spread. Flammability limits using oxygen concentration and flow velocity as coordinates are presented for both opposed and concurrent flame spread configurations. It is found that concurrent spread has a wider flammable range than opposed case. Beyond the flammability boundary of opposed spread, there is an additional flammable area for concurrent spread, where the spreading flame is sustainable in concurrent mode only. The lowest oxygen concentration allowing concurrent flame spread in forced flow is estimated to be approximately 14 % O2, substantially below that for opposed spread (18.5 % O2).

On the transition from reconsolidation to extinction of contextual fear memories

PubMed Central

Flavell, Charlotte R.; Lee, Jonathan L.C.

2017-01-01

Retrieval of an associative memory can lead to different phenomena. Brief reexposure sessions tend to trigger reconsolidation, whereas more extended ones trigger extinction. In appetitive and fear cued Pavlovian memories, an intermediate “null point” period has been observed where neither process seems to be engaged. Here we investigated whether this phenomenon extends to contextual fear memory. Adult rats were subjected to a contextual fear conditioning paradigm, reexposed to the context 2 d later for 3, 5, 10, 20, or 30 min, with immediate injections of MK-801 or saline following reexposure, and tested on the following day. We observed a significant effect of MK-801 with the 3- and 30-min sessions, impairing reconsolidation and extinction, respectively. However, it did not have significant effects with 5-, 10-, or 20-min sessions, even though freezing decreased from reexposure to test. Further analyses indicated that this is not likely to be due to a variable transition point at the population level. In conclusion, the results show that in contextual fear memories there is a genuine “null point” between the parameters that induce reconsolidation and extinction, as defined by the effects of MK-801, although NMDA receptor-independent decreases in freezing can still occur in these conditions. PMID:28814464

Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

2014-03-01

There is an urgent need to develop effective vulnerability assessments for evaluating the conservation status of species in a changing climate. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of species to climate change based on the expectation that established assessments such as the IUCN Red List need revising or superseding in light of the threat that climate change brings. However, although previous studies have identified ecological and life history attributes that characterize declining species or those listed as threatened, no study so far has undertaken a quantitative analysis of the attributes that cause species to be at high risk of extinction specifically due to climate change. We developed a simulation approach based on generic life history types to show here that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using a mixture of spatial and demographic variables that can be measured in the present day without the need for complex forecasting models. Most of the variables we found to be important for predicting extinction risk, including occupied area and population size, are already used in species conservation assessments, indicating that present systems may be better able to identify species vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Therefore, although climate change brings many new conservation challenges, we find that it may not be fundamentally different from other threats in terms of assessing extinction risks.

Rescuing Ecosystems from Extinction Cascades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahasrabudhe, Sagar; Motter, Adilson

2010-03-01

Food web perturbations stemming from climate change, overexploitation, invasive species, and natural disasters often cause an initial loss of species that results in a cascade of secondary extinctions. Using a predictive modeling framework, here we will present a systematic network-based approach to reduce the number of secondary extinctions. We will show that the extinction of one species can often be compensated by the concurrent removal of a second specific species, which is a counter-intuitive effect not previously tested in complex food webs. These compensatory perturbations frequently involve long-range interactions that are not a priori evident from local predator-prey relationships. Strikingly, in numerous cases even the early removal of a species that would eventually be extinct by the cascade is found to significantly reduce the number of cascading extinctions. Other nondestructive interventions based on partial removals and growth suppression and/or mortality increase are shown to sometimes prevent all secondary extinctions.

Chemical antipredator defence is linked to higher extinction risk

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Many attributes of species may be linked to contemporary extinction risk, though some such traits remain untested despite suggestions that they may be important. Here, I test whether a trait associated with higher background extinction rates, chemical antipredator defence, is also associated with current extinction risk, using amphibians as a model system—a group facing global population declines. I find that chemically defended species are approximately 60% more likely to be threatened than species without chemical defence, although the severity of the contemporary extinction risk may not relate to chemical defence. The results confirm that background and contemporary extinction rates can be predicted from the same traits, at least in certain cases. This suggests that associations between extinction risk and phenotypic traits can be temporally stable over long periods. The results also provide novel insights into the relevance of antipredator defences for species subject to conservation concerns. PMID:28018657

An experimental study of opposed flow diffusion flame extinction over a thin fuel in microgravity. M.S. Thesis. Final Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ferkul, Paul V.

1989-01-01

The flame spread and flame extinction characteristics of a thin fuel burning in a low-speed forced convective environment in microgravity were examined. The flame spread rate was observed to decrease both with decreasing ambient oxygen concentration as well as decreasing free stream velocity. A new mode of flame extinction was observed, caused by either of two means: keeping the free stream velocity constant and decreasing the oxygen concentration, or keeping the oxygen concentration constant and decreasing the free stream velocity. This extinction is called quenching extinction. By combining this data together with a previous microgravity quiescent flame study and normal-gravity blowoff extinction data, a flammability map was constructed with molar percentage oxygen and characteristic relative velocity as coordinates. The Damkohler number is not sufficient to predict flame spread and extinction in the near quench limit region.

Beyond the pleistocene: using phylogeny and constraint to inform the evolutionary psychology of human mating.

PubMed

Eastwick, Paul W

2009-09-01

Evolutionary psychologists explore the adaptive function of traits and behaviors that characterize modern Homo sapiens. However, evolutionary psychologists have yet to incorporate the phylogenetic relationship between modern Homo sapiens and humans' hominid and pongid relatives (both living and extinct) into their theorizing. By considering the specific timing of evolutionary events and the role of evolutionary constraint, researchers using the phylogenetic approach can generate new predictions regarding mating phenomena and derive new explanations for existing evolutionary psychological findings. Especially useful is the concept of the adaptive workaround-an adaptation that manages the maladaptive elements of a pre-existing evolutionary constraint. The current review organizes 7 features of human mating into their phylogenetic context and presents evidence that 2 adaptive workarounds played a critical role as Homo sapiens's mating psychology evolved. These adaptive workarounds function in part to mute or refocus the effects of older, previously evolved adaptations and highlight the layered nature of humans' mating psychology. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

The biology of mass extinction: a palaeontological view

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jablonski, D.; Raup, D. M. (Principal Investigator)

1989-01-01

Extinctions are not biologically random: certain taxa or functional/ecological groups are more extinction-prone than others. Analysis of molluscan survivorship patterns for the end-Cretaceous mass extinctions suggests that some traits that tend to confer extinction resistance during times of normal ('background') levels of extinction are ineffectual during mass extinction. For genera, high species-richness and possession of widespread individual species imparted extinction-resistance during background times but not during the mass extinction, when overall distribution of the genus was an important factor. Reanalysis of Hoffman's (1986) data (Neues Jb. Geol. Palaont. Abh. 172, 219) on European bivalves, and preliminary analysis of a new northern European data set, reveals a similar change in survivorship rules, as do data scattered among other taxa and extinction events. Thus taxa and adaptations can be lost not because they were poorly adapted by the standards of the background processes that constitute the bulk of geological time, but because they lacked--or were not linked to--the organismic, species-level or clade-level traits favoured under mass-extinction conditions. Mass extinctions can break the hegemony of species-rich, well-adapted clades and thereby permit radiation of taxa that had previously been minor faunal elements; no net increase in the adaptation of the biota need ensue. Although some large-scale evolutionary trends transcend mass extinctions, post extinction evolutionary pathways are often channelled in directions not predictable from evolutionary patters during background times.

Human fear conditioning and extinction: Timing is everything . . . or is it?

PubMed Central

Prenoveau, Jason M.; Craske, Michelle G.; Liao, Betty; Ornitz, Edward M.

2012-01-01

A differential fear conditioning paradigm was used with 107 healthy undergraduate participants to evaluate the effect of conditioned stimulus (CS) temporal properties on fear acquisition and extinction. Two minute duration CSs were used for Day 1 fear acquisition. Participants were randomized to receive either 1, 2, or 4 minute CS durations during Day 2 extinction. Extinction re-test was examined on Day 3 using the original acquisition CS duration (2 minutes). Findings indicated that participants who were aware of the CS+/unconditioned stimulus (US) contingency (n=52) develop a temporal expectation about when the unconditioned stimulus will be delivered. Although the shorter duration CS resulted in greater fear reduction during extinction, cessation of fear responding at re-test was the same for CS extinction durations ranging from half the CS acquisition duration to twice the CS acquisition duration. Thus, extinction performance did not predict extinction at re-test, which could have important implications for optimizing exposure therapy for anxiety disorders. PMID:22349998

Progress to extinction: increased specialisation causes the demise of animal clades.

PubMed

Raia, P; Carotenuto, F; Mondanaro, A; Castiglione, S; Passaro, F; Saggese, F; Melchionna, M; Serio, C; Alessio, L; Silvestro, D; Fortelius, M

2016-08-10

Animal clades tend to follow a predictable path of waxing and waning during their existence, regardless of their total species richness or geographic coverage. Clades begin small and undifferentiated, then expand to a peak in diversity and range, only to shift into a rarely broken decline towards extinction. While this trajectory is now well documented and broadly recognised, the reasons underlying it remain obscure. In particular, it is unknown why clade extinction is universal and occurs with such surprising regularity. Current explanations for paleontological extinctions call on the growing costs of biological interactions, geological accidents, evolutionary traps, and mass extinctions. While these are effective causes of extinction, they mainly apply to species, not clades. Although mass extinctions is the undeniable cause for the demise of a sizeable number of major taxa, we show here that clades escaping them go extinct because of the widespread tendency of evolution to produce increasingly specialised, sympatric, and geographically restricted species over time.

Progress to extinction: increased specialisation causes the demise of animal clades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raia, P.; Carotenuto, F.; Mondanaro, A.; Castiglione, S.; Passaro, F.; Saggese, F.; Melchionna, M.; Serio, C.; Alessio, L.; Silvestro, D.; Fortelius, M.

2016-08-01

Animal clades tend to follow a predictable path of waxing and waning during their existence, regardless of their total species richness or geographic coverage. Clades begin small and undifferentiated, then expand to a peak in diversity and range, only to shift into a rarely broken decline towards extinction. While this trajectory is now well documented and broadly recognised, the reasons underlying it remain obscure. In particular, it is unknown why clade extinction is universal and occurs with such surprising regularity. Current explanations for paleontological extinctions call on the growing costs of biological interactions, geological accidents, evolutionary traps, and mass extinctions. While these are effective causes of extinction, they mainly apply to species, not clades. Although mass extinctions is the undeniable cause for the demise of a sizeable number of major taxa, we show here that clades escaping them go extinct because of the widespread tendency of evolution to produce increasingly specialised, sympatric, and geographically restricted species over time.

Suppression of Striatal Prediction Errors by the Prefrontal Cortex in Placebo Hypoalgesia.

PubMed

Schenk, Lieven A; Sprenger, Christian; Onat, Selim; Colloca, Luana; Büchel, Christian

2017-10-04

Classical learning theories predict extinction after the discontinuation of reinforcement through prediction errors. However, placebo hypoalgesia, although mediated by associative learning, has been shown to be resistant to extinction. We tested the hypothesis that this is mediated by the suppression of prediction error processing through the prefrontal cortex (PFC). We compared pain modulation through treatment cues (placebo hypoalgesia, treatment context) with pain modulation through stimulus intensity cues (stimulus context) during functional magnetic resonance imaging in 48 male and female healthy volunteers. During acquisition, our data show that expectations are correctly learned and that this is associated with prediction error signals in the ventral striatum (VS) in both contexts. However, in the nonreinforced test phase, pain modulation and expectations of pain relief persisted to a larger degree in the treatment context, indicating that the expectations were not correctly updated in the treatment context. Consistently, we observed significantly stronger neural prediction error signals in the VS in the stimulus context compared with the treatment context. A connectivity analysis revealed negative coupling between the anterior PFC and the VS in the treatment context, suggesting that the PFC can suppress the expression of prediction errors in the VS. Consistent with this, a participant's conceptual views and beliefs about treatments influenced the pain modulation only in the treatment context. Our results indicate that in placebo hypoalgesia contextual treatment information engages prefrontal conceptual processes, which can suppress prediction error processing in the VS and lead to reduced updating of treatment expectancies, resulting in less extinction of placebo hypoalgesia. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT In aversive and appetitive reinforcement learning, learned effects show extinction when reinforcement is discontinued. This is thought to be mediated by prediction errors (i.e., the difference between expectations and outcome). Although reinforcement learning has been central in explaining placebo hypoalgesia, placebo hypoalgesic effects show little extinction and persist after the discontinuation of reinforcement. Our results support the idea that conceptual treatment beliefs bias the neural processing of expectations in a treatment context compared with a more stimulus-driven processing of expectations with stimulus intensity cues. We provide evidence that this is associated with the suppression of prediction error processing in the ventral striatum by the prefrontal cortex. This provides a neural basis for persisting effects in reinforcement learning and placebo hypoalgesia. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/379715-09$15.00/0.

Cometary showers and unseen solar companions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weissman, P. R.

1984-01-01

The possibility that an invisible solar companion passing through the Oort cloud every 28 Myr precipitates a sufficiently high rate of cometary collisions with the earth to account for periodic mass species extinctions recorded in the fossil record is discussed. A Monte Carlo simulation shows that any hypothesized 'death star' with a 28 Myr orbit would experience an average 10 percent change in period per orbit. Production of an 18-fold increase in cometary impacts would be associated with a 0.055 probability that a 10 km nucleus would hit the earth in a shower once every 510 Myr, longer than the proposed extinction periodicity. However, if the death star orbit has a 0.6 eccentricity and the Oort cloud is sufficiently densely populated, a 2 billion comet shower may be possible. A survey of large terrestrial impact craters indicates that 6-12 craters with diameters over 10 km originated in periodic showers. The extinctions in any case occur at 26 Myr periods and cannot be correlated with the 33 Myr period of recrossing the galactic plane, or with any other known phenomena.

Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk

PubMed Central

Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Weinstein, Ben; Costa, Gabriel C.; Brooks, Thomas M.; Ceballos, Gerardo; Radeloff, Volker C.; Rondinini, Carlo; Graham, Catherine H.

2017-01-01

Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species’ trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial variation in the pressures faced by populations within the ranges of individual species. The added impacts from climate change may increase the susceptibility of at-risk species to extinction and expand the regions where mammals are most vulnerable globally. PMID:29145486

Geography of current and future global mammal extinction risk.

PubMed

Davidson, Ana D; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Weinstein, Ben; Costa, Gabriel C; Brooks, Thomas M; Ceballos, Gerardo; Radeloff, Volker C; Rondinini, Carlo; Graham, Catherine H

2017-01-01

Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species' trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly 40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at 0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk. They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial variation in the pressures faced by populations within the ranges of individual species. The added impacts from climate change may increase the susceptibility of at-risk species to extinction and expand the regions where mammals are most vulnerable globally.

The extinction context enables extinction performance after a change in context

PubMed Central

Nelson, James Byron; Gregory, Pamela; Sanjuan, Maria del Carmen

2012-01-01

One experiment with human participants determined the extent to which recovery of extinguished responding with a context switch was due to a failure to retrieve contextually-controlled learning, or some other process such as participants learning that context changes signal reversals in the meaning of stimulus – outcome relationships. In a video game, participants learned to suppress mouse clicking in the presence of a stimulus that predicted an attack. Then, that stimulus underwent extinction in a different context (environment within the game). Following extinction, suppression was recovered and then extinguished again during testing in the conditioning context. In a final test, participants that were tested in the context where extinction first took place showed less of a recovery than those tested in a neutral context, but they showed a recovery of suppression nevertheless. A change in context tended to cause a change in the meaning of the stimulus, leading to recovery in both the neutral and extinction contexts. The extinction context attenuated that recovery, perhaps by enabling retrieval of the learning that took place in extinction. Recovery outside an extinction context is due to a failure of the context to enable the learning acquired during extinction, but only in part. PMID:22521549

Long-term differences in extinction risk among the seven forms of rarity

PubMed Central

Harnik, Paul G.; Simpson, Carl; Payne, Jonathan L.

2012-01-01

Rarity is widely used to predict the vulnerability of species to extinction. Species can be rare in markedly different ways, but the relative impacts of these different forms of rarity on extinction risk are poorly known and cannot be determined through observations of species that are not yet extinct. The fossil record provides a valuable archive with which we can directly determine which aspects of rarity lead to the greatest risk. Previous palaeontological analyses confirm that rarity is associated with extinction risk, but the relative contributions of different types of rarity to extinction risk remain unknown because their impacts have never been examined simultaneously. Here, we analyse a global database of fossil marine animals spanning the past 500 million years, examining differential extinction with respect to multiple rarity types within each geological stage. We observe systematic differences in extinction risk over time among marine genera classified according to their rarity. Geographic range played a primary role in determining extinction, and habitat breadth a secondary role, whereas local abundance had little effect. These results suggest that current reductions in geographic range size will lead to pronounced increases in long-term extinction risk even if local populations are relatively large at present. PMID:23097507

Long-term differences in extinction risk among the seven forms of rarity.

PubMed

Harnik, Paul G; Simpson, Carl; Payne, Jonathan L

2012-12-22

Rarity is widely used to predict the vulnerability of species to extinction. Species can be rare in markedly different ways, but the relative impacts of these different forms of rarity on extinction risk are poorly known and cannot be determined through observations of species that are not yet extinct. The fossil record provides a valuable archive with which we can directly determine which aspects of rarity lead to the greatest risk. Previous palaeontological analyses confirm that rarity is associated with extinction risk, but the relative contributions of different types of rarity to extinction risk remain unknown because their impacts have never been examined simultaneously. Here, we analyse a global database of fossil marine animals spanning the past 500 million years, examining differential extinction with respect to multiple rarity types within each geological stage. We observe systematic differences in extinction risk over time among marine genera classified according to their rarity. Geographic range played a primary role in determining extinction, and habitat breadth a secondary role, whereas local abundance had little effect. These results suggest that current reductions in geographic range size will lead to pronounced increases in long-term extinction risk even if local populations are relatively large at present.

Multi-photon UV photolysis of gaseous polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: Extinction spectra and dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walsh, A. J.; Gash, E. W.; Mansfield, M. W. D.

The extinction spectra of static naphthalene and static biphenylene vapor, each buffered with a noble gas at room temperature, were measured as a function of time in the region between 390 and 850 nm after UV multi-photon laser photolysis at 308 nm. Employing incoherent broadband cavity enhanced absorption spectroscopy (IBBCEAS), the spectra were found to be unstructured with a general lack of isolated features suggesting that the extinction was not solely based on absorption but was in fact dominated by scattering from particles formed in the photolysis of the respective polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Following UV multi-photon photolysis, the extinction dynamicsmore » of the static (unstirred) closed gas-phase system exhibits extraordinary quasi-periodic and complex oscillations with periods ranging from seconds to many minutes, persisting for up to several hours. Depending on buffer gas type and pressure, several types of dynamical responses could be generated (classified as types I, II, and III). They were studied as a function of temperature and chamber volume for different experimental conditions and possible explanations for the oscillations are discussed. A conclusive model for the observed phenomena has not been established. However, a number of key hypotheses have made based on the measurements in this publication: (a) Following the multi-photon UV photolysis of naphthalene (or biphenylene), particles are formed on a timescale not observable using IBBCEAS. (b) The observed temporal behavior cannot be described on basis of a chemical reaction scheme alone. (c) The pressure dependence of the system's responses is due to transport phenomena of particles in the chamber. (d) The size distribution and the refractive indices of particles are time dependent and evolve on a timescale of minutes to hours. The rate of particle coagulation, involving coalescent growth and particle agglomeration, affects the observed oscillations. (e) The walls of the chamber act as a sink. The wall conditions (which could not be quantitatively characterized) have a profound influence on the dynamics of the system and on its slow return to an equilibrium state.« less

Multi-photon UV photolysis of gaseous polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: Extinction spectra and dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, A. J.; Ruth, A. A.; Gash, E. W.; Mansfield, M. W. D.

2013-08-01

The extinction spectra of static naphthalene and static biphenylene vapor, each buffered with a noble gas at room temperature, were measured as a function of time in the region between 390 and 850 nm after UV multi-photon laser photolysis at 308 nm. Employing incoherent broadband cavity enhanced absorption spectroscopy (IBBCEAS), the spectra were found to be unstructured with a general lack of isolated features suggesting that the extinction was not solely based on absorption but was in fact dominated by scattering from particles formed in the photolysis of the respective polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Following UV multi-photon photolysis, the extinction dynamics of the static (unstirred) closed gas-phase system exhibits extraordinary quasi-periodic and complex oscillations with periods ranging from seconds to many minutes, persisting for up to several hours. Depending on buffer gas type and pressure, several types of dynamical responses could be generated (classified as types I, II, and III). They were studied as a function of temperature and chamber volume for different experimental conditions and possible explanations for the oscillations are discussed. A conclusive model for the observed phenomena has not been established. However, a number of key hypotheses have made based on the measurements in this publication: (a) Following the multi-photon UV photolysis of naphthalene (or biphenylene), particles are formed on a timescale not observable using IBBCEAS. (b) The observed temporal behavior cannot be described on basis of a chemical reaction scheme alone. (c) The pressure dependence of the system's responses is due to transport phenomena of particles in the chamber. (d) The size distribution and the refractive indices of particles are time dependent and evolve on a timescale of minutes to hours. The rate of particle coagulation, involving coalescent growth and particle agglomeration, affects the observed oscillations. (e) The walls of the chamber act as a sink. The wall conditions (which could not be quantitatively characterized) have a profound influence on the dynamics of the system and on its slow return to an equilibrium state.

Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.

2017-05-01

We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks.

PubMed

Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B

2017-05-01

We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

The DA antagonist tiapride impairs context-related extinction learning in a novel context without affecting renewal

PubMed Central

Lissek, Silke; Glaubitz, Benjamin; Wolf, Oliver T.; Tegenthoff, Martin

2015-01-01

Renewal describes the recovery of an extinguished response if recall is tested in a context different from the extinction context. Behavioral studies demonstrated that attention to relevant context strengthens renewal. Neurotransmitters mediating attention and learning such as the dopaminergic (DA) system presumably modulate extinction learning and renewal. However, the role of DA for non-fear-based extinction learning and renewal in humans has not yet been investigated. This fMRI study investigated effects of DA-antagonism upon context-related extinction in a predictive learning task in which extinction occurred either in a novel (ABA) or an unchanged (AAA) context. The tiapride-treated group (TIA) showed significantly impaired ABA extinction learning and a significant within-group difference between ABA and AAA extinction, compared to placebo (PLAC). Groups did not differ in their level of ABA renewal. In ABA extinction, TIA showed reduced activation in dlPFC and OFC, hippocampus, and temporal regions. Across groups, activation in PFC and hippocampus correlated negatively with ABA extinction errors. Results suggest that in context-related extinction learning DA in PFC and hippocampus is involved in readjusting the cue-outcome relationship in the presence of a novel context. However, relating context to the appropriate association during recall does not appear to rely exclusively on DA signaling. PMID:26388752

A general theory of impacts and mass extinctions, and the consequences of large-body impact on the Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rampino, M. R.

1994-01-01

The theory that large-body impacts are the primary cause of mass extinctions of life on the Earth now has a sound theoretical and observational foundation. A convergence of evidence suggests that the biosphere may be a sensitive detector of large impact events, which result in the recorded global mass extinction pulses. The astronomically observed flux of asteroids and comets in the neighborhood of the Earth, and the threshold impact size calculated to produce a global environment catastrophe, can be used to predict a time history of large impact events and related mass extinctions of life that agrees well with the record of approx. 24 extinction events in the last 540 m.y.

Interplay of dust alignment, grain growth, and magnetic fields in polarization: lessons from the emission-to-extinction ratio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fanciullo, L.; Guillet, V.; Boulanger, F.; Jones, A. P.

2017-06-01

Context. Polarized extinction and emission from dust in the interstellar medium (ISM) are hard to interpret, as their dependence on dust optical properties, grain alignment, and magnetic field orientation is complex. This is particularly true in molecular clouds. The aforementioned phenomena are usually considered independently in polarization studies, while it is likely that they all contribute and their effects have yet to be disentangled. Aims: The data available today are not yet used to their full potential. The combination of emission and extinction, in particular, provides information not available from either of them alone. We combine data from the scientific literature on polarized dust extinction with Planck data on polarized emission, and we use them to constrain the possible variations in dust and environmental conditions inside molecular clouds, and especially translucent lines of sight, taking the magnetic field orientation into account. Methods: We focused on the dependence between λmax (the wavelength of maximum polarization in extinction) and other observables such as the extinction polarization, the emission polarization, and the ratio between the two. We set out to reproduce these correlations using Monte Carlo simulations in which we varied the relevant quantities in a dust model, which are grain alignment, size distribution, and magnetic field orientation, to mimic the diverse conditions that are expected inside molecular clouds. Results: None of the quantities we chose can explain the observational data on their own: the best results are obtained when all quantities vary significantly across and within clouds. However, some of the data, most notably the stars with a low ratio of polarization in emission to polarization in extinction, are not reproduced by our simulation. Conclusions: Our results suggest not only that dust evolution is necessary to explain polarization in molecular clouds, but that a simple change in size distribution is not sufficient to explain the data. Our results also point the way for future and more sophisticated models.

Predicting Vulnerabilities of North American Shorebirds to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Galbraith, Hector; DesRochers, David W.; Brown, Stephen; Reed, J. Michael

2014-01-01

Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at–risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners–in–Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower–risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change. PMID:25268907

Predicting vulnerabilities of North American shorebirds to climate change.

PubMed

Galbraith, Hector; DesRochers, David W; Brown, Stephen; Reed, J Michael

2014-01-01

Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at-risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners-in-Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower-risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change.

Post-Session Administration of USP Methylene Blue Facilitates the Retention of Pathological Fear Extinction and Contextual Memory in Phobic Adults

PubMed Central

Telch, Michael J.; Bruchey, Aleksandra K.; Rosenfield, David; Cobb, Adam R.; Smits, Jasper; Pahl, Sandra; Gonzalez-Lima, F.

2015-01-01

Objective Preclinical studies have shown that low-dose USP methylene blue increases mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase activity in the brain and improves memory retention after learning tasks, including fear extinction. We report on the first controlled experiment to examine the memory-enhancing effects of post-training methylene blue administration on retention of fear extinction and contextual memory following fear extinction training. Method Adults (N = 42) displaying marked claustrophobic fear were randomized to double-blind administration of 260 mg of methylene blue versus placebo immediately following six five-minute extinction trials to an enclosed chamber. Retesting occurred one month later to assess fear renewal as indexed by peak fear during exposure to a non-trained enclosed chamber with the prediction that methylene blue's effects would vary as a function of fear reduction achieved during extinction training. Incidental contextual memory was assessed 1 and 30 days after training to assess the cognitive enhancing effects of methylene blue independent of its effects on fear attenuation. Results Consistent with predictions, participants displaying low end fear at post-training showed significantly less fear at follow-up if they received methylene blue post-training relative to placebo. In contrast, participants displaying moderate to high levels of post-training fear tended to fare worse at follow-up relative to placebo. Methylene blue's enhancement of contextual memory was unrelated to initial or post-training claustrophobic fear. Conclusions Methylene blue enhances memory and the retention of fear extinction when administered after a successful exposure session, but may have a deleterious effect on extinction when administered after an unsuccessful exposure session. PMID:25018057

Effects of post-session administration of methylene blue on fear extinction and contextual memory in adults with claustrophobia.

PubMed

Telch, Michael J; Bruchey, Aleksandra K; Rosenfield, David; Cobb, Adam R; Smits, Jasper; Pahl, Sandra; Gonzalez-Lima, F

2014-10-01

Preclinical studies have shown that low-dose methylene blue increases mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase activity in the brain and improves memory retention after learning tasks, including fear extinction. The authors report on the first controlled experiment to examine the memory-enhancing effects of posttraining methylene blue administration on retention of fear extinction and contextual memory following fear extinction training. Adult participants displaying marked claustrophobic fear were randomly assigned to double-blind administration of 260 mg of methylene blue (N=23) or administration of placebo (N=19) immediately following six 5-minute extinction trials in an enclosed chamber. Retesting occurred 1 month later to assess fear renewal as indexed by peak fear during exposure to a nontraining chamber, with the prediction that the effects of methylene blue would vary as a function of fear reduction achieved during extinction training. Incidental contextual memory was assessed 1 and 30 days after training to assess the cognitive-enhancing effects of methylene blue independent of its effects on fear attenuation. Consistent with predictions, participants displaying low end fear posttraining showed significantly less fear at the 1-month follow-up if they received methylene blue posttraining compared with placebo. In contrast, participants displaying moderate to high levels of posttraining fear tended to fare worse at the follow-up if they received methylene blue posttraining. Methylene blue's enhancement of contextual memory was unrelated to initial or posttraining claustrophobic fear. Methylene blue enhances memory and the retention of fear extinction when administered after a successful exposure session but may have a deleterious effect on extinction when administered after an unsuccessful exposure session.

Association of Resting Metabolism in the Fear Neural Network With Extinction Recall Activations and Clinical Measures in Trauma-Exposed Individuals.

PubMed

Marin, Marie-France; Song, Huijin; VanElzakker, Michael B; Staples-Bradley, Lindsay K; Linnman, Clas; Pace-Schott, Edward F; Lasko, Natasha B; Shin, Lisa M; Milad, Mohammed R

2016-09-01

Exposure-based therapy, an effective treatment for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), relies on extinction learning principles. In PTSD patients, dysfunctional patterns in the neural circuitry underlying fear extinction have been observed using resting-state or functional activation measures. It remains undetermined whether resting activity predicts activations during extinction recall or PTSD symptom severity. Moreover, it remains unclear whether trauma exposure per se affects resting activity in this circuitry. The authors employed a multimodal approach to examine the relationships among resting metabolism, clinical symptoms, and activations during extinction recall. Three cohorts were recruited: PTSD patients (N=24), trauma-exposed individuals with no PTSD (TENP) (N=20), and trauma-unexposed healthy comparison subjects (N=21). Participants underwent a resting positron emission tomography scan 4 days before a functional MRI fear conditioning and extinction paradigm. Amygdala resting metabolism negatively correlated with clinical functioning (as measured by the Global Assessment of Functioning Scale) in the TENP group, and hippocampal resting metabolism negatively correlated with clinical functioning in the PTSD group. In the PTSD group, dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) resting metabolism positively correlated with PTSD symptom severity, and it predicted increased dACC activations but decreased hippocampal and ventromedial prefrontal cortex activations during extinction recall. The TENP group had lower amygdala resting metabolism compared with the PTSD and healthy comparison groups, and it exhibited lower hippocampus resting metabolism relative to the healthy comparison group. Resting metabolism in the fear circuitry correlated with functioning, PTSD symptoms, and extinction recall activations, further supporting the relevance of this network to the pathophysiology of PTSD. The study findings also highlight the fact that chronic dysfunction in the amygdala and hippocampus is demonstrable in PTSD and other trauma-exposed individuals, even without exposure to an evocative stimulus.

Selection in a subdivided population with local extinction and recolonization.

PubMed Central

Cherry, Joshua L

2003-01-01

In a subdivided population, local extinction and subsequent recolonization affect the fate of alleles. Of particular interest is the interaction of this force with natural selection. The effect of selection can be weakened by this additional source of stochastic change in allele frequency. The behavior of a selected allele in such a population is shown to be equivalent to that of an allele with a different selection coefficient in an unstructured population with a different size. This equivalence allows use of established results for panmictic populations to predict such quantities as fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation. The magnitude of the quantity N(e)s(e), which determines fixation probability, is decreased by extinction and recolonization. Thus deleterious alleles are more likely to fix, and advantageous alleles less likely to do so, in the presence of extinction and recolonization. Computer simulations confirm that the theoretical predictions of both fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation are good approximations. PMID:12807797

Local Limit Phenomena, Flow Compression, and Fuel Cracking Effects in High-Speed Turbulent Flames

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

e.g. local extinction and re- ignition , interactions between flow compression and fast-reaction induced dilatation (reaction compression ), and to...time as a function of initial temperature in constant-pressure auto - ignition , and (b) the S-curves of perfectly stirred reactors (PSRs), for n...mechanism. The reduction covered auto - ignition and perfectly stirred reactors for equivalence ratio range of 0.5~1.5, initial temperature higher than

Single dose of l-dopa makes extinction memories context-independent and prevents the return of fear

PubMed Central

Haaker, Jan; Gaburro, Stefano; Sah, Anupam; Gartmann, Nina; Lonsdorf, Tina B.; Meier, Kolja; Singewald, Nicolas; Pape, Hans-Christian; Morellini, Fabio; Kalisch, Raffael

2013-01-01

Traumatic events can engender persistent excessive fear responses to trauma reminders that may return even after successful treatment. Extinction, the laboratory analog of behavior therapy, does not erase conditioned fear memories but generates competing, fear-inhibitory “extinction memories” that, however, are tied to the context in which extinction occurred. Accordingly, a dominance of fear over extinction memory expression—and, thus, return of fear—is often observed if extinguished fear stimuli are encountered outside the extinction (therapy) context. We show that postextinction administration of the dopamine precursor l-dopa makes extinction memories context-independent, thus strongly reducing the return of fear in both mice and humans. Reduced fear is accompanied by decreased amygdala and enhanced ventromedial prefrontal cortex activation in both species. In humans, ventromedial prefrontal cortex activity is predicted by enhanced resting-state functional coupling of the area with the dopaminergic midbrain during the postextinction consolidation phase. Our data suggest that dopamine-dependent boosting of extinction memory consolidation is a promising avenue to improving anxiety therapy. PMID:23754384

Nothing is safe: Intolerance of uncertainty is associated with compromised fear extinction learning.

PubMed

Morriss, Jayne; Christakou, Anastasia; van Reekum, Carien M

2016-12-01

Extinction-resistant fear is considered to be a central feature of pathological anxiety. Here we sought to determine if individual differences in Intolerance of Uncertainty (IU), a potential risk factor for anxiety disorders, underlies compromised fear extinction. We tested this hypothesis by recording electrodermal activity in 38 healthy participants during fear acquisition and extinction. We assessed the temporality of fear extinction, by examining early and late extinction learning. During early extinction, low IU was associated with larger skin conductance responses to learned threat vs. safety cues, whereas high IU was associated with skin conductance responding to both threat and safety cues, but no cue discrimination. During late extinction, low IU showed no difference in skin conductance between learned threat and safety cues, whilst high IU predicted continued fear expression to learned threat, indexed by larger skin conductance to threat vs. safety cues. These findings suggest a critical role of uncertainty-based mechanisms in the maintenance of learned fear. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Extinction Context and Retrieval Cues on Renewal of Alcohol-Cue Reactivity Among Alcohol-Dependent Outpatients

PubMed Central

Stasiewicz, Paul R.; Brandon, Thomas H.; Bradizza, Clara M.

2013-01-01

Pavlovian conditioning models have led to cue-exposure treatments for drug abuse. However, conditioned responding to drug stimuli can return (be renewed) following treatment. Animal research and a previous study of social drinkers indicated that extinction is highly context dependent but that renewal could be reduced by the inclusion of a cue from the extinction context. This study extends this research to a clinical sample. Alcohol-dependent outpatients (N = 143) completed an extinction trial to reduce craving and salivation responses to alcohol cues. They were then randomized to renewal tests in either the same context as extinction, a different context, the different context containing an extinction cue, or the different context with cue plus a manipulation to increase the salience of the cue. Contrary to predictions, the different context did not produce the expected renewal effect. Although the generalization of extinction effects beyond the cue-exposure context is a positive clinical finding, it is inconsistent with basic research findings on the context dependence of extinction. Possible explanations for this inconsistency are discussed. PMID:17563145

Extinction of drug- and withdrawal-paired cues in animal models: relevance to the treatment of addiction.

PubMed

Myers, Karyn M; Carlezon, William A

2010-11-01

Conditioned drug craving and withdrawal elicited by cues paired with drug use or acute withdrawal are among the many factors contributing to compulsive drug taking. Understanding how to stop these cues from having these effects is a major goal of addiction research. Extinction is a form of learning in which associations between cues and the events they predict are weakened by exposure to the cues in the absence of those events. Evidence from animal models suggests that conditioned responses to drug cues can be extinguished, although the degree to which this occurs in humans is controversial. Investigations into the neurobiological substrates of extinction of conditioned drug craving and withdrawal may facilitate the successful use of drug cue extinction within clinical contexts. While this work is still in the early stages, there are indications that extinction of drug- and withdrawal-paired cues shares neural mechanisms with extinction of conditioned fear. Using the fear extinction literature as a template, it is possible to organize the observations on drug cue extinction into a cohesive framework. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of extinction context and retrieval cues on renewal of alcohol-cue reactivity among alcohol-dependent outpatients.

PubMed

Stasiewicz, Paul R; Brandon, Thomas H; Bradizza, Clara M

2007-06-01

Pavlovian conditioning models have led to cue-exposure treatments for drug abuse. However, conditioned responding to drug stimuli can return (be renewed) following treatment. Animal research and a previous study of social drinkers indicated that extinction is highly context dependent but that renewal could be reduced by the inclusion of a cue from the extinction context. This study extends this research to a clinical sample. Alcohol-dependent outpatients (N = 143) completed an extinction trial to reduce craving and salivation responses to alcohol cues. They were then randomized to renewal tests in either the same context as extinction, a different context, the different context containing an extinction cue, or the different context with cue plus a manipulation to increase the salience of the cue. Contrary to predictions, the different context did not produce the expected renewal effect. Although the generalization of extinction effects beyond the cue-exposure context is a positive clinical finding, it is inconsistent with basic research findings on the context dependence of extinction. Possible explanations for this inconsistency are discussed.

Prediction and measurement of direct-normal solar irradiance: A closure experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Halthore, R.N.; Schwartz, S.E.; Michalsky, J.J.

1997-03-01

Direct-normal solar irradiance (DNSI), the total energy in the solar spectrum incident on a plane perpendicular to the Sun`s direction on a unit area at the earth`s surface in unit time, depends only on the atmospheric extinction of sunlight without regard to the details of extinction--whether absorption or scattering. Here the authors describe a set of closure experiments performed in north-central Oklahoma, wherein measured atmospheric composition is input to a radiative transfer model, MODTRAN-3, to predict DNSI, which is then compared to measured values. Thirty six independent comparisons are presented; the agreement between predicted and measured values falls within themore » combined uncertainties in the prediction (2%) and measurement (0.2%) albeit with a slight bias ({approximately} 1% overprediction) that is independent of the solar zenith angle. Thus these results establish the adequacy of current knowledge of the solar spectrum and atmospheric extinction as embodied in MODTRAN-3 for use in climate models. An important consequence is the overwhelming likelihood that the atmospheric clear-sky absorption is accurately described to within comparable uncertainties.« less

Prediction and measurement of direct-normal solar irradiance: A closure experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halthore, R. N.; Schwartz, S. E.; Michalsky, J. J.; Anderson, G. P.; Ferrare, R. A.; Ten Brink, H. M.

1997-01-01

Direct-Normal Solar Irradiance (DNSI), the total energy in the solar spectrum incident on a plane perpendicular to the Sun's direction on a unit area at the earth's surface in unit time, depends only on the atmospheric extinction of sunlight without regard to the details of extinction-whether absorption or scattering. Here the authors describe a set of closure experiments performed in north-central Oklahoma, wherein measured atmospheric composition is input to a radiative transfer model, MODTRAN-3, to predict DNSI, which is then compared to measured values. Thirty six independent comparisons are presented; the agreement between predicted and measured values falls within the combined uncertainties in the prediction (2%) and measurement (0.2%) albeit with a slight bias ((approximately) 1% overprediction) that is independent of the solar zenith angle. Thus these results establish the adequacy of current knowledge of the solar spectrum and atmospheric extinction as embodied in MODTRAN-3 for use in climate models. An important consequence is the overwhelming likelihood that the atmospheric clear-sky absorption is accurately described to within comparable uncertainties.

Extinction of Harrington's mountain goat

PubMed Central

Mead, Jim I.; Martin, Paul S.; Euler, Robert C.; Long, Austin; Jull, A. J. T.; Toolin, Laurence J.; Donahue, Douglas J.; Linick, T. W.

1986-01-01

Keratinous horn sheaths of the extinct Harrington's mountain goat, Oreamnos harringtoni, were recovered at or near the surface of dry caves of the Grand Canyon, Arizona. Twenty-three separate specimens from two caves were dated nondestructively by the tandem accelerator mass spectrometer (TAMS). Both the TAMS and the conventional dates indicate that Harrington's mountain goat occupied the Grand Canyon for at least 19,000 years prior to becoming extinct by 11,160 ± 125 radiocarbon years before present. The youngest average radiocarbon dates on Shasta ground sloths, Nothrotheriops shastensis, from the region are not significantly younger than those on extinct mountain goats. Rather than sequential extinction with Harrington's mountain goat disappearing from the Grand Canyon before the ground sloths, as one might predict in view of evidence of climatic warming at the time, the losses were concurrent. Both extinctions coincide with the regional arrival of Clovis hunters. Images PMID:16593655

Expected time-invariant effects of biological traits on mammal species duration.

PubMed

Smits, Peter D

2015-10-20

Determining which biological traits influence differences in extinction risk is vital for understanding the differential diversification of life and for making predictions about species' vulnerability to anthropogenic impacts. Here I present a hierarchical Bayesian survival model of North American Cenozoic mammal species durations in relation to species-level ecological factors, time of origination, and phylogenetic relationships. I find support for the survival of the unspecialized as a time-invariant generalization of trait-based extinction risk. Furthermore, I find that phylogenetic and temporal effects are both substantial factors associated with differences in species durations. Finally, I find that the estimated effects of these factors are partially incongruous with how these factors are correlated with extinction risk of the extant species. These findings parallel previous observations that background extinction is a poor predictor of mass extinction events and suggest that attention should be focused on mass extinctions to gain insight into modern species loss.

DEVELOPMENT OF AQUATIC MODELS FOR TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GENETIC DIVERSITY AND POPULATION EXTINCTION RISK

EPA Science Inventory

The relationship between population adaptive potential and extinction risk in a changing environment is not well understood. Although the expectation is that genetic diversity is directly related to the capacity of populations to adapt, the statistical and predictive aspects of ...

Relative Persistence as a Function of Order of Reinforcement Schedules

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dyal, James A.; Sytsma, Donald

1976-01-01

Stimulus analyzer theory as proposed by Sutherland and Mackintosh (1971) makes the unique prediction that the first-experienced reinforcement schedule will influence resistance to extinction more than subsequent schedules. Results presently reported of runaway acquisition and extinction indicate the opposite: C-P consistently produce substantially…

Co-extinction in a host-parasite network: identifying key hosts for network stability.

PubMed

Dallas, Tad; Cornelius, Emily

2015-08-17

Parasites comprise a substantial portion of total biodiversity. Ultimately, this means that host extinction could result in many secondary extinctions of obligate parasites and potentially alter host-parasite network structure. Here, we examined a highly resolved fish-parasite network to determine key hosts responsible for maintaining parasite diversity and network structure (quantified here as nestedness and modularity). We evaluated four possible host extinction orders and compared the resulting co-extinction dynamics to random extinction simulations; including host removal based on estimated extinction risk, parasite species richness and host level contributions to nestedness and modularity. We found that all extinction orders, except the one based on realistic extinction risk, resulted in faster declines in parasite diversity and network structure relative to random biodiversity loss. Further, we determined species-level contributions to network structure were best predicted by parasite species richness and host family. Taken together, we demonstrate that a small proportion of hosts contribute substantially to network structure and that removal of these hosts results in rapid declines in parasite diversity and network structure. As network stability can potentially be inferred through measures of network structure, our findings may provide insight into species traits that confer stability.

Earthquake prediction: the interaction of public policy and science.

PubMed Central

Jones, L M

1996-01-01

Earthquake prediction research has searched for both informational phenomena, those that provide information about earthquake hazards useful to the public, and causal phenomena, causally related to the physical processes governing failure on a fault, to improve our understanding of those processes. Neither informational nor causal phenomena are a subset of the other. I propose a classification of potential earthquake predictors of informational, causal, and predictive phenomena, where predictors are causal phenomena that provide more accurate assessments of the earthquake hazard than can be gotten from assuming a random distribution. Achieving higher, more accurate probabilities than a random distribution requires much more information about the precursor than just that it is causally related to the earthquake. PMID:11607656

Pharmacology of cognitive enhancers for exposure-based therapy of fear, anxiety and trauma-related disorders

PubMed Central

Singewald, N.; Schmuckermair, C.; Whittle, N.; Holmes, A.; Ressler, K.J.

2015-01-01

Pathological fear and anxiety are highly debilitating and, despite considerable advances in psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy they remain insufficiently treated in many patients with PTSD, phobias, panic and other anxiety disorders. Increasing preclinical and clinical evidence indicates that pharmacological treatments including cognitive enhancers, when given as adjuncts to psychotherapeutic approaches [cognitive behavioral therapy including extinction-based exposure therapy] enhance treatment efficacy, while using anxiolytics such as benzodiazepines as adjuncts can undermine long-term treatment success. The purpose of this review is to outline the literature showing how pharmacological interventions targeting neurotransmitter systems including serotonin, dopamine, noradrenaline, histamine, glutamate, GABA, cannabinoids, neuropeptides (oxytocin, neuropeptides Y and S, opioids) and other targets (neurotrophins BDNF and FGF2, glucocorticoids, L-type-calcium channels, epigenetic modifications) as well as their downstream signaling pathways, can augment fear extinction and strengthen extinction memory persistently in preclinical models. Particularly promising approaches are discussed in regard to their effects on specific aspects of fear extinction namely, acquisition, consolidation and retrieval, including long-term protection from return of fear (relapse) phenomena like spontaneous recovery, reinstatement and renewal of fear. We also highlight the promising translational value of the preclinial research and the clinical potential of targeting certain neurochemical systems with, for example d-cycloserine, yohimbine, cortisol, and L-DOPA. The current body of research reveals important new insights into the neurobiology and neurochemistry of fear extinction and holds significant promise for pharmacologically-augmented psychotherapy as an improved approach to treat trauma and anxiety-related disorders in a more efficient and persistent way promoting enhanced symptom remission and recovery. PMID:25550231

Experimental demonstration of a two-phase population extinction hazard

PubMed Central

Drake, John M.; Shapiro, Jeff; Griffen, Blaine D.

2011-01-01

Population extinction is a fundamental biological process with applications to ecology, epidemiology, immunology, conservation biology and genetics. Although a monotonic relationship between initial population size and mean extinction time is predicted by virtually all theoretical models, attempts at empirical demonstration have been equivocal. We suggest that this anomaly is best explained with reference to the transient properties of ensembles of populations. Specifically, we submit that under experimental conditions, many populations escape their initially vulnerable state to reach quasi-stationarity, where effects of initial conditions are erased. Thus, extinction of populations initialized far from quasi-stationarity may be exposed to a two-phase extinction hazard. An empirical prediction of this theory is that the fit Cox proportional hazards regression model for the observed survival time distribution of a group of populations will be shown to violate the proportional hazards assumption early in the experiment, but not at later times. We report results of two experiments with the cladoceran zooplankton Daphnia magna designed to exhibit this phenomenon. In one experiment, habitat size was also varied. Statistical analysis showed that in one of these experiments a transformation occurred so that very early in the experiment there existed a transient phase during which the extinction hazard was primarily owing to the initial population size, and that this was gradually replaced by a more stable quasi-stationary phase. In the second experiment, only habitat size unambiguously displayed an effect. Analysis of data pooled from both experiments suggests that the overall extinction time distribution in this system results from the mixture of extinctions during the initial rapid phase, during which the effects of initial population size can be considerable, and a longer quasi-stationary phase, during which only habitat size has an effect. These are the first results, to our knowledge, of a two-phase population extinction process. PMID:21429907

Extinction reveals that primary sensory cortex predicts reinforcement outcome

PubMed Central

Bieszczad, Kasia M.; Weinberger, Norman M.

2011-01-01

Primary sensory cortices are traditionally regarded as stimulus analyzers. However, studies of associative learning-induced plasticity in the primary auditory cortex (A1) indicate involvement in learning, memory and other cognitive processes. For example, the area of representation of a tone becomes larger for stronger auditory memories and the magnitude of area gain is proportional to the degree that a tone becomes behaviorally important. Here, we used extinction to investigate whether “behavioral importance” specifically reflects a sound’s ability to predict reinforcement (reward or punishment) vs. to predict any significant change in the meaning of a sound. If the former, then extinction should reverse area gains as the signal no longer predicts reinforcement. Rats (n = 11) were trained to bar-press to a signal tone (5.0 kHz) for water-rewards, to induce signal-specific area gains in A1. After subsequent withdrawal of reward, A1 was mapped to determine representational areas. Signal-specific area gains — estimated from a previously established brain–behavior quantitative function — were reversed, supporting the “reinforcement prediction” hypothesis. Area loss was specific to the signal tone vs. test tones, further indicating that withdrawal of reinforcement, rather than unreinforced tone presentation per se, was responsible for area loss. Importantly, the amount of area loss was correlated with the amount of extinction (r = 0.82, p < 0.01). These findings show that primary sensory cortical representation can encode behavioral importance as a signal’s value to predict reinforcement, and that the number of cells tuned to a stimulus can dictate its ability to command behavior. PMID:22304434

Ignition and extinction phenomena in helium micro hollow cathode discharges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kulsreshath, M. K.; Schwaederle, L.; Dufour, T.

Micro hollow cathode discharges (MHCD) were produced using 250 μm thick dielectric layer of alumina sandwiched between two nickel electrodes of 8 μm thickness. A through cavity at the center of the chip was formed by laser drilling technique. MHCD with a diameter of few hundreds of micrometers allowed us to generate direct current discharges in helium at up to atmospheric pressure. A slowly varying ramped voltage generator was used to study the ignition and the extinction periods of the microdischarges. The analysis was performed by using electrical characterisation of the V-I behaviour and the measurement of He*({sup 3}S{sub 1}) metastable atomsmore » density by tunable diode laser spectroscopy. At the ignition of the microdischarges, 2 μs long current peak as high as 24 mA was observed, sometimes followed by low amplitude damped oscillations. At helium pressure above 400 Torr, an oscillatory behaviour of the discharge current was observed just before the extinction of the microdischarges. The same type of instability in the extinction period at high pressure also appeared on the density of He*({sup 3}S{sub 1}) metastable atoms, but delayed by a few μs relative to the current oscillations. Metastable atoms thus cannot be at the origin of the generation of the observed instabilities.« less

The Perils of Picky Eating: Dietary Breadth Is Related to Extinction Risk in Insectivorous Bats

PubMed Central

Boyles, Justin G.; Storm, Jonathan J.

2007-01-01

Several recent papers evaluate the relationship between ecological characteristics and extinction risk in bats. These studies report that extinction risk is negatively related to geographic range size and positively related to habitat specialization. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that extinction risk is also related to dietary specialization in insectivorous vespertilionid bats using both traditional and phylogenetically-controlled analysis of variance. We collected dietary data and The World Conservation Union (IUCN) rankings for 44 Australian, European, and North American bat species. Our results indicate that species of conservation concern (IUCN ranking near threatened or above) are more likely to have a specialized diet than are species of least concern. Additional analyses show that dietary breadth is not correlated to geographic range size or wing morphology, characteristics previously found to correlate with extinction risk. Therefore, there is likely a direct relationship between dietary specialization and extinction risk; however, the large variation in dietary breadth within species of least concern suggests that diet alone cannot explain extinction risk. Our results may have important implications for the development of predictive models of extinction risk and for the assignment of extinction risk to insectivorous bat species. Similar analyses should be conducted on additional bat families to assess the generality of this relationship between niche breadth and extinction risk. PMID:17653286

Observational evidence of dust evolution in galactic extinction curves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cecchi-Pestellini, Cesare; Casu, Silvia; Mulas, Giacomo

Although structural and optical properties of hydrogenated amorphous carbons are known to respond to varying physical conditions, most conventional extinction models are basically curve fits with modest predictive power. We compare an evolutionary model of the physical properties of carbonaceous grain mantles with their determination by homogeneously fitting observationally derived Galactic extinction curves with the same physically well-defined dust model. We find that a large sample of observed Galactic extinction curves are compatible with the evolutionary scenario underlying such a model, requiring physical conditions fully consistent with standard density, temperature, radiation field intensity, and average age of diffuse interstellar clouds.more » Hence, through the study of interstellar extinction we may, in principle, understand the evolutionary history of the diffuse interstellar clouds.« less

Time travel, Clock Puzzles and Their Experimental Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciufolini, Ignazio

2013-09-01

Is time travel possible? What is Einstein's theory of relativity mathematically predicting in that regard? Is time travel related to the so-called clock `paradoxes' of relativity and if so how? Is there any accurate experimental evidence of the phenomena regarding the different flow of time predicted by General Relativity and is there any possible application of the temporal phenomena predicted by relativity to our everyday life? Which temporal phenomena are predicted in the vicinities of a rotating body and of a mass-energy current, and do we have any experimental test of the occurrence of these phenomena near a rotating body? In this paper, we address and answer some of these questions.

Late Pleistocene Megafaunal Extinction Consistent With YDB Impact Hypothesis at Younger Dryas Onset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennett, J. P.; Kennett, D. J.

2008-12-01

At least 35 mammal and 19 bird genera became extinct across North America near the end of the Pleistocene. Modern increases in stratigraphic and dating resolution suggest that this extinction occurred relatively rapidly near 12.9 ka (11 radiocarbon kyrs). Within the context of a long-standing debate about its cause, Firestone et al., (2007) proposed that this extinction resulted from an extraterrestrial (ET) impact over North America at 12.9 ka. This hypothesis predicts that the extinction of most of these animals should have occurred abruptly at 12.9 ka. To test this hypothesis, we have critically examined radiocarbon ages and the extinction stratigraphy of these taxa. From a large data pool, we selected only radiocarbon dates with low error margins with a preference for directly dated biological materials (e.g., bone, dung, etc.) and modern chemical purification techniques. A relatively small number of acceptable dates indicate that at least 16 animal genera and several other species became extinct close to 12.9 ka. These taxa include the most common animals of the late Pleistocene such as horses, camels, and mammoths. Also, the remains of extinct taxa are reportedly found up to, but not above, the base of a widely distributed carbon-rich layer called the black mat. This stratum forms an abrupt, major biostratigraphic boundary at the Younger Dryas onset (12.9 ka), which also contains multiple ET markers comprising the impact layer (the YDB). Surviving animal populations were abruptly reduced at the YDB (e.g., Bison), with major range restrictions and apparent evolutionary bottlenecks. The abruptness of this major extinction is inconsistent with the hypotheses of human overkill and climatic change. We argue that extinction ages older than 12.9 ka for many less common species result from the Signor-Lipps effect, but the impact hypothesis predicts that as new dates are acquired, they will approach ever closer to 12.9 ka. The megafaunal extinction is strongly associated with abrupt and major vegetation changes, abrupt cooling, and widespread biomass burning at the onset of the Younger Dryas over North America. The stratigraphic and chronologic data are consistent with megafaunal extinction being caused by continental-scale ecosystem disruption due to an ET impact.

The role of extinction in evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raup, D. M.

1994-01-01

The extinction of species is not normally considered an important element of neodarwinian theory, in contrast to the opposite phenomenon, speciation. This is surprising in view of the special importance Darwin attached to extinction, and because the number of species extinctions in the history of life is almost the same as the number of originations; present-day biodiversity is the result of a trivial surplus of originations, cumulated over millions of years. For an evolutionary biologist to ignore extinction is probably as foolhardy as for a demographer to ignore mortality. The past decade has seen a resurgence of interest in extinction, yet research on the topic is still at a reconnaissance level, and our present understanding of its role in evolution is weak. Despite uncertainties, extinction probably contains three important elements. (i) For geographically widespread species, extinction is likely only if the killing stress is one so rare as to be beyond the experience of the species, and thus outside the reach of natural selection. (ii) The largest mass extinctions produce major restructuring of the biosphere wherein some successful groups are eliminated, allowing previously minor groups to expand and diversify. (iii) Except for a few cases, there is little evidence that extinction is selective in the positive sense argued by Darwin. It has generally been impossible to predict, before the fact, which species will be victims of an extinction event.

Incorporating population viability models into species status assessment and listing decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Allan, Nathan; Servoss, Jeff; Hedwall, Shaula J.; Wooldridge, Brian

2017-01-01

Assessment of a species' status is a key part of management decision making for endangered and threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Predicting the future state of the species is an essential part of species status assessment, and projection models can play an important role in developing predictions. We built a stochastic simulation model that incorporated parametric and environmental uncertainty to predict the probable future status of the Sonoran desert tortoise in the southwestern United States and North Central Mexico. Sonoran desert tortoise was a Candidate species for listing under the Endangered Species Act, and decision makers wanted to use model predictions in their decision making process. The model accounted for future habitat loss and possible effects of climate change induced droughts to predict future population growth rates, abundances, and quasi-extinction probabilities. Our model predicts that the population will likely decline over the next few decades, but there is very low probability of quasi-extinction less than 75 years into the future. Increases in drought frequency and intensity may increase extinction risk for the species. Our model helped decision makers predict and characterize uncertainty about the future status of the species in their listing decision. We incorporated complex ecological processes (e.g., climate change effects on tortoises) in transparent and explicit ways tailored to support decision making processes related to endangered species.

The shrinking ark: patterns of large mammal extinctions in India

PubMed Central

Karanth, Krithi K.; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K. Ullas; Hines, James E.; Christensen, Norman L.

2010-01-01

Mammal extinctions are widespread globally, with South Asian species being most threatened. We examine local extinctions of 25 mammals in India. We use historical records to obtain a set of locations at which each species was known to have been present at some time in the last 200 years. We then use occupancy estimation models to draw inferences about current presence at these same locations based on field observations of local experts. We examine predictions about the influence of key factors such as protected areas, forest cover, elevation, human population density and cultural tolerance on species extinction. For all 25 species, estimated local extinction probabilities (referenced to a 100 year time frame) range between 0.14 and 0.96. Time elapsed since the historical occurrence record was an important determinant of extinction probability for 14 species. Protected areas are positively associated with lower extinction of 18 species, although many species occur outside them. We find evidence that higher proportion of forest cover is associated with lower extinction probabilities for seven species. However, for species that prefer open habitats (which have experienced intensive land-use change), forest cover alone appears insufficient to ensure persistence (the complement of extinction). We find that higher altitude is positively associated with lower extinction for eight species. Human population density is positively associated with extinction of 13 species. We find that ‘culturally tolerated’ species do exhibit higher persistence. Overall, large-bodied, rare and habitat specialist mammals tend to have higher extinction probabilities. PMID:20219736

Low-Cost Avoidance Behaviors are Resistant to Fear Extinction in Humans

PubMed Central

Vervliet, Bram; Indekeu, Ellen

2015-01-01

Elevated levels of fear and avoidance are core symptoms across the anxiety disorders. It has long been known that fear serves to motivate avoidance. Consequently, fear extinction has been the primary focus in pre-clinical anxiety research for decades, under the implicit assumption that removing the motivator of avoidance (fear) would automatically mitigate the avoidance behaviors as well. Although this assumption has intuitive appeal, it has received little scientific scrutiny. The scarce evidence from animal studies is mixed, while the assumption remains untested in humans. The current study applied an avoidance conditioning protocol in humans to investigate the effects of fear extinction on the persistence of low-cost avoidance. Online danger-safety ratings and skin conductance responses documented the dynamics of conditioned fear across avoidance and extinction phases. Anxiety- and avoidance-related questionnaires explored individual differences in rates of avoidance. Participants first learned to click a button during a predictive danger signal, in order to cancel an upcoming aversive electrical shock (avoidance conditioning). Next, fear extinction was induced by presenting the signal in the absence of shocks while button-clicks were prevented (by removing the button in Experiment 1, or by instructing not to click the button in Experiment 2). Most importantly, post-extinction availability of the button caused a significant return of avoidant button-clicks. In addition, trait-anxiety levels correlated positively with rates of avoidance during a predictive safety signal, and with the rate of pre- to post-extinction decrease during this signal. Fear measures gradually decreased during avoidance conditioning, as participants learned that button-clicks effectively canceled the shock. Preventing button-clicks elicited a sharp increase in fear, which subsequently extinguished. Fear remained low during avoidance testing, but danger-safety ratings increased again when button-clicks were subsequently prevented. Together, these results show that low-cost avoidance behaviors can persist following fear extinction and induce increased threat appraisal. On the other hand, fear extinction did reduce augmented rates of unnecessary avoidance during safety in trait-anxious individuals, and instruction-based response prevention was more effective than removal of response cues. More research is needed to characterize the conditions under which fear extinction might mitigate avoidance. PMID:26733837

Unveiling the hidden supernova population in local LIRGs with NIR/Radio observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrero-Illana, R.; Pérez-Torres, M. A.; Alberdi, A.

2013-05-01

The dust enshrouded environments of Luminous Infrared Galaxies (LIRGs), and especially of their nuclear regions, prevents the direct detection of supernovae in the optical. Radio observations are unaffected by dust extinction, allowing for the detection of most of these supernovae, thus probing their massive star formation rate. In addition, complementary observations in the near IR can help us to understand the nature of these phenomena and derive properties of the regions where they occur.

Cumulative frequency distribution of past species extinctions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raup, D. M.

1991-01-01

Analysis of Sepkoski's compendium of the time ranges of 30,000+ taxa yields a mean duration of 28.4 ma for genera of fossil invertebrates. This converts to an average extinction rate of 3.5 percent per million years or about one percent every 286,000 years. Using survivorship techniques, these estimates can be converted to the species level, yielding a Phanerozoic average of one percent species extinction every 40,000 years. Variation in extinction rates through time is far greater than the null expectation of a homogeneous birth-death model and this reflects the well-known episodicity of extinction ranging from a few large mass extinctions to so-called background extinction. The observed variation in rates can be used to construct a cumulative frequency distribution of extinction intensity, and this distribution, in the form of a kill curve for species, shows the expected waiting times between extinction events of a given intensity. The kill curve is an average description of the extinction events of a given intensity. The kill curve is an average description of the extinction record and does not imply any cause or causes of extinction. The kill curve shows, among other things, that only about five percent of total species extinctions in the Phanerozoic were involved in the five largest mass extinctions. The other 95 percent were distributed among large and small events not normally called mass extinctions. As an exploration of the possibly absurd proposition that most past extinctions were produced by the effects of large-body impact, the kill curve for species was mapped on the comparable distribution for comet and asteroid impacts. The result is a curve predicting the species kill for a given size of impacting object (expressed as crater size). The results are reasonable in that impacts producing craters less than 30 km (diameter) cause negligible extinction but those producing craters 100-150 km (diameter) cause extinction of species in the range of 45-60 percent.

Century-scale Changes in Environmental Synchrony and Variability and their Effects on Populations of Birds and Reproduction of Trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koenig, W.

2016-12-01

The ecological impacts of modern global climate change are detectable in a wide variety of phenomena ranging from shifts in species ranges to changes in community composition and human disease dynamics. Thus far, however, little attention has been given to temporal changes in environmental spatial synchrony-the coincident change in abundance or value across the landscape-or environmental variability, despite the importance of these factors as drivers of population rescue and extinction and reproductive dynamics of both animal and plant populations. We quantified spatial synchrony of widespread North American wintering birds species using Audubon Christmas Bird Counts over the past 50 years and seed set variability (mast fruiting) among trees over the past century and found that both spatial synchrony of the birds and seed set variability have significantly increased over these time periods. The first of these results was mirrored by significant increases in spatial synchrony of mean maximum air temperature across North America, primarily during the summer, while the second is consistent with the hypothesis that climate change is resulting in greater seed set variability. These findings suggest the potential for temporal changes in envioronmental synchrony and variability to be affecting a wide range of ecological phenomena by influencing the probability of population rescue and extinction and by affecting ecosystem processes that rely on the resource pulses provided by mast fruiting plants.

Drivers and hotspots of extinction risk in marine mammals.

PubMed

Davidson, Ana D; Boyer, Alison G; Kim, Hwahwan; Pompa-Mansilla, Sandra; Hamilton, Marcus J; Costa, Daniel P; Ceballos, Gerardo; Brown, James H

2012-02-28

The world's oceans are undergoing profound changes as a result of human activities. However, the consequences of escalating human impacts on marine mammal biodiversity remain poorly understood. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) identifies 25% of marine mammals as at risk of extinction, but the conservation status of nearly 40% of marine mammals remains unknown due to insufficient data. Predictive models of extinction risk are crucial to informing present and future conservation needs, yet such models have not been developed for marine mammals. In this paper, we: (i) used powerful machine-learning and spatial-modeling approaches to understand the intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of marine mammal extinction risk; (ii) used this information to predict risk across all marine mammals, including IUCN "Data Deficient" species; and (iii) conducted a spatially explicit assessment of these results to understand how risk is distributed across the world's oceans. Rate of offspring production was the most important predictor of risk. Additional predictors included taxonomic group, small geographic range area, and small social group size. Although the interaction of both intrinsic and extrinsic variables was important in predicting risk, overall, intrinsic traits were more important than extrinsic variables. In addition to the 32 species already on the IUCN Red List, our model identified 15 more species, suggesting that 37% of all marine mammals are at risk of extinction. Most at-risk species occur in coastal areas and in productive regions of the high seas. We identify 13 global hotspots of risk and show how they overlap with human impacts and Marine Protected Areas.

Extinction of likes and dislikes: effects of feature-specific attention allocation.

PubMed

Vanaelst, Jolien; Spruyt, Adriaan; Everaert, Tom; De Houwer, Jan

2017-12-01

The evaluative conditioning (EC) effect refers to the change in the liking of a neutral stimulus (conditioned stimulus, CS) due to its pairing with another stimulus (unconditioned stimulus, US). We examined whether the extinction rate of the EC effect is moderated by feature-specific attention allocation. In two experiments, CSs were abstract Gabor patches varying along two orthogonal, perceptual dimensions (i.e. spatial frequency and orientation). During the acquisition phase, one of these dimensions was predictive of the valence of the USs. During the extinction phase, CSs were presented alone and participants were asked to categorise the CSs either according to their valence, the perceptual dimension that was task-relevant during the acquisition phase, or a perceptual dimension that was task-irrelevant during the acquisition phase. As predicted, explicit valence measures revealed a linear increase in the extinction rate of the EC effect as participants were encouraged to assign attention to non-evaluative stimulus information during the extinction phase. In Experiment 1, Affect Misattribution Paradigm (AMP) data mimicked this pattern of results, although the effect just missed conventional levels of significance. In Experiment 2, the AMP data revealed an increase of the EC effect if attention was focused on evaluative stimulus information. Potential mechanisms to explain these findings are discussed.

Pelagic larval duration predicts extinction risk in a freshwater fish clade.

PubMed

Douglas, Morgan; Keck, Benjamin P; Ruble, Crystal; Petty, Melissa; Shute, J R; Rakes, Patrick; Hulsey, C Darrin

2013-01-01

Pelagic larval duration (PLD) can influence evolutionary processes ranging from dispersal to extinction in aquatic organisms. Using estimates of PLD obtained from species of North American darters (Percidae: Etheostomatinae), we demonstrate that this freshwater fish clade exhibits surprising variation in PLD. Comparative analyses provide some evidence that higher stream gradients favour the evolution of shorter PLD. Additionally, similar to patterns in the marine fossil record in which lower PLD is associated with greater extinction probability, we found a reduced PLD in darter lineages was evolutionarily associated with extinction risk. Understanding the causes and consequences of PLD length could lead to better management and conservation of organisms in our increasingly imperiled aquatic environments.

Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2010-01-07

Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

Individual differences in learning predict the return of fear.

PubMed

Gershman, Samuel J; Hartley, Catherine A

2015-09-01

Using a laboratory analogue of learned fear (Pavlovian fear conditioning), we show that there is substantial heterogeneity across individuals in spontaneous recovery of fear following extinction training. We propose that this heterogeneity might stem from qualitative individual differences in the nature of extinction learning. Whereas some individuals tend to form a new memory during extinction, leaving their fear memory intact, others update the original threat association with new safety information, effectively unlearning the fear memory. We formalize this account in a computational model of fear learning and show that individuals who, according to the model, are more likely to form new extinction memories tend to show greater spontaneous recovery compared to individuals who appear to only update a single memory. This qualitative variation in fear and extinction learning may have important implications for understanding vulnerability and resilience to fear-related psychiatric disorders.

Variability in life-history and ecological traits is a buffer against extinction in mammals.

PubMed

González-Suárez, Manuela; Revilla, Eloy

2013-02-01

Anthropogenic degradation of the world's ecosystems is leading to a widespread and accelerating loss of biodiversity. However, not all species respond equally to existing threats, raising the question: what makes a species more vulnerable to extinction? We propose that higher intraspecific variability may reduce the risk of extinction, as different individuals and populations within a species may respond differently to occurring threats. Supporting this prediction, our results show that mammalian species with more variable adult body masses, litter sizes, sexual maturity ages and population densities are less vulnerable to extinction. Our findings reveal the role of local variation among populations, particularly of large mammals, as a buffering mechanism against extinction, and emphasise the importance of considering trait variation in comparative analyses and conservation management. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Medial prefrontal cortex activity during the extinction of conditioned fear: an investigation using functional near-infrared spectroscopy.

PubMed

Guhn, Anne; Dresler, Thomas; Hahn, Tim; Mühlberger, Andreas; Ströhle, Andreas; Deckert, Jürgen; Herrmann, Martin J

2012-06-01

The majority of fear conditioning studies in humans have focused on fear acquisition rather than fear extinction. For this reason only a few functional imaging studies on fear extinction are available. A large number of animal studies indicate the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) as neuronal substrate of extinction. We therefore determined mPFC contribution during extinction learning after a discriminative fear conditioning in 34 healthy human subjects by using functional near-infrared spectroscopy. During the extinction training, a previously conditioned neutral face (conditioned stimulus, CS+) no longer predicted an aversive scream (unconditioned stimulus, UCS). Considering differential valence and arousal ratings as well as skin conductance responses during the acquisition phase, we found a CS+ related increase in oxygenated haemoglobin concentration changes within the mPFC over the time course of extinction. Late CS+ trials further revealed higher activation than CS- trials in a cluster of probe set channels covering the mPFC. These results are in line with previous findings on extinction and further emphasize the mPFC as significant for associative learning processes. During extinction, the diminished fear association between a former CS+ and a UCS is inversely correlated with mPFC activity--a process presumably dysfunctional in anxiety disorders. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Extinction with multiple excitors

PubMed Central

McConnell, Bridget L.; Miguez, Gonzalo; Miller, Ralph R.

2012-01-01

Four conditioned suppression experiments with rats, using an ABC renewal design, investigated the effects of compounding the target conditioned excitor with additional, nontarget conditioned excitors during extinction. Experiment 1 showed stronger extinction, as evidenced by less renewal, when the target excitor was extinguished in compound with a second excitor, relative to when it was extinguished with associatively neutral stimuli. Critically, this deepened extinction effect was attenuated (i.e., more renewal occurred) when a third excitor was added during extinction training. This novel demonstration contradicts the predictions of associative learning models based on total error reduction, but it is explicable in terms of a counteraction effect within the framework of the extended comparator hypothesis. The attenuated deepened extinction effect was replicated in Experiments 2a and 3, which also showed that pretraining consisting of weakening the association between the two additional excitors (Experiments 2a and 2b) or weakening the association between one of the additional excitors and the unconditioned stimulus (Experiment 3) attenuated the counteraction effect, thereby resulting in a decrease in responding to the target excitor. These results suggest that more than simple total error reduction determines responding after extinction. PMID:23055103

Multiple independent origins of auto-pollination in tropical orchids (Bulbophyllum) in light of the hypothesis of selfing as an evolutionary dead end.

PubMed

Gamisch, Alexander; Fischer, Gunter Alexander; Comes, Hans Peter

2015-09-16

The transition from outcrossing to selfing has long been portrayed as an 'evolutionary dead end' because, first, reversals are unlikely and, second, selfing lineages suffer from higher rates of extinction owing to a reduced potential for adaptation and the accumulation of deleterious mutations. We tested these two predictions in a clade of Madagascan Bulbophyllum orchids (30 spp.), including eight species where auto-pollinating morphs (i.e., selfers, without a 'rostellum') co-exist with their pollinator-dependent conspecifics (i.e., outcrossers, possessing a rostellum). Specifically, we addressed this issue on the basis of a time-calibrated phylogeny by means of ancestral character reconstructions and within the state-dependent evolution framework of BiSSE (Binary State Speciation and Extinction), which allowed jointly estimating rates of transition, speciation, and extinction between outcrossing and selfing. The eight species capable of selfing occurred in scattered positions across the phylogeny, with two likely originating in the Pliocene (ca. 4.4-3.1 Ma), one in the Early Pleistocene (ca. 2.4 Ma), and five since the mid-Pleistocene (ca. ≤ 1.3 Ma). We infer that this scattered phylogenetic distribution of selfing is best described by models including up to eight independent outcrossing-to-selfing transitions and very low rates of speciation (and either moderate or zero rates of extinction) associated with selfing. The frequent and irreversible outcrossing-to-selfing transitions in Madagascan Bulbophyllum are clearly congruent with the first prediction of the dead end hypothesis. The inability of our study to conclusively reject or support the likewise predicted higher extinction rate in selfing lineages might be explained by a combination of methodological limitations (low statistical power of our BiSSE approach to reliably estimate extinction in small-sized trees) and evolutionary processes (insufficient time elapsed for selfers to go extinct). We suggest that, in these tropical orchids, a simple genetic basis of selfing (via loss of the 'rostellum') is needed to explain the strikingly recurrent transitions to selfing, perhaps reflecting rapid response to parallel and novel selective environments over Late Quaternary (≤ 1.3 Ma) time scales.

Dynamics of origination and extinction in the marine fossil record

PubMed Central

Alroy, John

2008-01-01

The discipline-wide effort to database the fossil record at the occurrence level has made it possible to estimate marine invertebrate extinction and origination rates with much greater accuracy. The new data show that two biotic mechanisms have hastened recoveries from mass extinctions and confined diversity to a relatively narrow range over the past 500 million years (Myr). First, a drop in diversity of any size correlates with low extinction rates immediately afterward, so much so that extinction would almost come to a halt if diversity dropped by 90%. Second, very high extinction rates are followed by equally high origination rates. The two relationships predict that the rebound from the current mass extinction will take at least 10 Myr, and perhaps 40 Myr if it rivals the Permo-Triassic catastrophe. Regardless, any large event will result in a dramatic ecological and taxonomic restructuring of the biosphere. The data also confirm that extinction and origination rates both declined through the Phanerozoic and that several extinctions in addition to the Permo-Triassic event were particularly severe. However, the trend may be driven by taxonomic biases and the rates vary in accord with a simple log normal distribution, so there is no sharp distinction between background and mass extinctions. Furthermore, the lack of any significant autocorrelation in the data is inconsistent with macroevolutionary theories of periodicity or self-organized criticality. PMID:18695240

Trophic redundancy reduces vulnerability to extinction cascades

PubMed Central

Sanders, Dirk; Thébault, Elisa; Kehoe, Rachel; Frank van Veen, F. J.

2018-01-01

Current species extinction rates are at unprecedentedly high levels. While human activities can be the direct cause of some extinctions, it is becoming increasingly clear that species extinctions themselves can be the cause of further extinctions, since species affect each other through the network of ecological interactions among them. There is concern that the simplification of ecosystems, due to the loss of species and ecological interactions, increases their vulnerability to such secondary extinctions. It is predicted that more complex food webs will be less vulnerable to secondary extinctions due to greater trophic redundancy that can buffer against the effects of species loss. Here, we demonstrate in a field experiment with replicated plant-insect communities, that the probability of secondary extinctions is indeed smaller in food webs that include trophic redundancy. Harvesting one species of parasitoid wasp led to secondary extinctions of other, indirectly linked, species at the same trophic level. This effect was markedly stronger in simple communities than for the same species within a more complex food web. We show that this is due to functional redundancy in the more complex food webs and confirm this mechanism with a food web simulation model by highlighting the importance of the presence and strength of trophic links providing redundancy to those links that were lost. Our results demonstrate that biodiversity loss, leading to a reduction in redundant interactions, can increase the vulnerability of ecosystems to secondary extinctions, which, when they occur, can then lead to further simplification and run-away extinction cascades. PMID:29467292

Linking extinction-colonization dynamics to genetic structure in a salamander metapopulation.

PubMed

Cosentino, Bradley J; Phillips, Christopher A; Schooley, Robert L; Lowe, Winsor H; Douglas, Marlis R

2012-04-22

Theory predicts that founder effects have a primary role in determining metapopulation genetic structure. However, ecological factors that affect extinction-colonization dynamics may also create spatial variation in the strength of genetic drift and migration. We tested the hypothesis that ecological factors underlying extinction-colonization dynamics influenced the genetic structure of a tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) metapopulation. We used empirical data on metapopulation dynamics to make a priori predictions about the effects of population age and ecological factors on genetic diversity and divergence among 41 populations. Metapopulation dynamics of A. tigrinum depended on wetland area, connectivity and presence of predatory fish. We found that newly colonized populations were more genetically differentiated than established populations, suggesting that founder effects influenced genetic structure. However, ecological drivers of metapopulation dynamics were more important than age in predicting genetic structure. Consistent with demographic predictions from metapopulation theory, genetic diversity and divergence depended on wetland area and connectivity. Divergence was greatest in small, isolated wetlands where genetic diversity was low. Our results show that ecological factors underlying metapopulation dynamics can be key determinants of spatial genetic structure, and that habitat area and isolation may mediate the contributions of drift and migration to divergence and evolution in local populations.

To predict the niche, model colonization and extinction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackulic, Charles B.; Nichols, James D.; Reid, Janice; Der, Ricky

2015-01-01

Ecologists frequently try to predict the future geographic distributions of species. Most studies assume that the current distribution of a species reflects its environmental requirements (i.e., the species' niche). However, the current distributions of many species are unlikely to be at equilibrium with the current distribution of environmental conditions, both because of ongoing invasions and because the distribution of suitable environmental conditions is always changing. This mismatch between the equilibrium assumptions inherent in many analyses and the disequilibrium conditions in the real world leads to inaccurate predictions of species' geographic distributions and suggests the need for theory and analytical tools that avoid equilibrium assumptions. Here, we develop a general theory of environmental associations during periods of transient dynamics. We show that time-invariant relationships between environmental conditions and rates of local colonization and extinction can produce substantial temporal variation in occupancy–environment relationships. We then estimate occupancy–environment relationships during three avian invasions. Changes in occupancy–environment relationships over time differ among species but are predicted by dynamic occupancy models. Since estimates of the occupancy–environment relationships themselves are frequently poor predictors of future occupancy patterns, research should increasingly focus on characterizing how rates of local colonization and extinction vary with environmental conditions.

Flood basalts and mass extinctions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morgan, W. Jason

1988-01-01

There appears to be a correlation between the times of flood basalts and mass-extinction events. There is a correlation of flood basalts and hotspot tracks--flood basalts appear to mark the beginning of a new hotspot. Perhaps there is an initial instability in the mantle that bursts forth as a flood basalt but then becomes a steady trickle that persists for many tens of millions of years. Suppose that flood basalts and not impacts cause the environmental changes that lead to mass-extinctions. This is a very testable hypothesis: it predicts that the ages of the flows should agree exactly with the times of extinctions. The Deccan and K-T ages agree with this hypothesis; An iridium anomaly at extinction boundaries apparently can be explained by a scaled-up eruption of the Hawaiian type; the occurrence of shocked-quartz is more of a problem. However if the flood basalts are all well dated and their ages indeed agree with extinction times, then surely some mechanism to appropriately produce shocked-quartz will be found.

Network-level reproduction number and extinction threshold for vector-borne diseases.

PubMed

Xue, Ling; Scoglio, Caterina

2015-06-01

The basic reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or not. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge of disease control, elimination, and mitigation of infectious diseases. Relationships between basic reproduction numbers of two deterministic network-based ordinary differential equation vector-host models, and extinction thresholds of corresponding stochastic continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under some assumptions. Numerical simulation results for malaria and Rift Valley fever transmission on heterogeneous networks are in agreement with analytical results without any assumptions, reinforcing that the relationships may always exist and proposing a mathematical problem for proving existence of the relationships in general. Moreover, numerical simulations show that the basic reproduction number does not monotonically increase or decrease with the extinction threshold. Consistent trends of extinction probability observed through numerical simulations provide novel insights into mitigation strategies to increase the disease extinction probability. Research findings may improve understandings of thresholds for disease persistence in order to control vector-borne diseases.

Geographic range size and extinction risk assessment in nomadic species.

PubMed

Runge, Claire A; Tulloch, Ayesha; Hammill, Edd; Possingham, Hugh P; Fuller, Richard A

2015-06-01

Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as such for the purposes of quantification of extinction risk; species occupying smaller geographic ranges are assumed to have a higher risk of extinction, all else being equal. However many species are mobile, and their movements range from relatively predictable to-and-fro migrations to complex irregular movements shown by nomadic species. These movements can lead to substantial temporary expansion and contraction of geographic ranges, potentially to levels which may pose an extinction risk. By linking occurrence data with environmental conditions at the time of observations of nomadic species, we modeled the dynamic distributions of 43 arid-zone nomadic bird species across the Australian continent for each month over 11 years and calculated minimum range size and extent of fluctuation in geographic range size from these models. There was enormous variability in predicted spatial distribution over time; 10 species varied in estimated geographic range size by more than an order of magnitude, and 2 species varied by >2 orders of magnitude. During times of poor environmental conditions, several species not currently classified as globally threatened contracted their ranges to very small areas, despite their normally large geographic range size. This finding raises questions about the adequacy of conventional assessments of extinction risk based on static geographic range size (e.g., IUCN Red Listing). Climate change is predicted to affect the pattern of resource fluctuations across much of the southern hemisphere, where nomadism is the dominant form of animal movement, so it is critical we begin to understand the consequences of this for accurate threat assessment of nomadic species. Our approach provides a tool for discovering spatial dynamics in highly mobile species and can be used to unlock valuable information for improved extinction risk assessment and conservation planning. © 2014 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

Extinction risks forced by climatic change and intraspecific variation in the thermal physiology of a tropical lizard.

PubMed

Pontes-da-Silva, Emerson; Magnusson, William E; Sinervo, Barry; Caetano, Gabriel H; Miles, Donald B; Colli, Guarino R; Diele-Viegas, Luisa M; Fenker, Jessica; Santos, Juan C; Werneck, Fernanda P

2018-04-01

Temperature increases can impact biodiversity and predicting their effects is one of the main challenges facing global climate-change research. Ectotherms are sensitive to temperature change and, although predictions indicate that tropical species are highly vulnerable to global warming, they remain one of the least studied groups with respect to the extent of physiological variation and local extinction risks. We model the extinction risks for a tropical heliothermic teiid lizard (Kentropyx calcarata) integrating previously obtained information on intraspecific phylogeographic structure, eco-physiological traits and contemporary species distributions in the Amazon rainforest and its ecotone to the Cerrado savannah. We also investigated how thermal-biology traits vary throughout the species' geographic range and the consequences of such variation for lineage vulnerability. We show substantial variation in thermal tolerance of individuals among thermally distinct sites. Thermal critical limits were highly correlated with operative environmental temperatures. Our physiological/climatic model predicted relative extinction risks for local populations within clades of K. calcarata for 2050 ranging between 26.1% and 70.8%, while for 2070, extinction risks ranged from 52.8% to 92.8%. Our results support the hypothesis that tropical-lizard taxa are at high risk of local extinction caused by increasing temperatures. However, the thermo-physiological differences found across the species' distribution suggest that local adaptation may allow persistence of this tropical ectotherm in global warming scenarios. These results will serve as basis to further research to investigate the strength of local adaptation to climate change. Persistence of Kentropyx calcarata also depends on forest preservation, but the Amazon rainforest is currently under high deforestation rates. We argue that higher conservation priority is necessary so the Amazon rainforest can fulfill its capacity to absorb the impacts of temperature increase on tropical ectotherms during climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using population viability analysis to predict the effects of climate change on the extinction risk of an endangered limestone endemic shrub, Arizona cliffrose.

PubMed

Maschinski, Joyce; Baggs, Joanne E; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Menges, Eric S

2006-02-01

The threat of global warming to rare species is a growing concern, yet few studies have predicted its effects on rare populations. Using demographic data gathered in both drought and nondrought years between 1996-2003 in central Arizona upper Sonoran Desert, we modeled population viability for the federally endangered Purshia subintegra (Kearney) Henrickson (Arizona cliffrose). We used deterministic matrix projection models and stochastic models simulating weather conditions during our study, given historical weather variation and under scenarios of increased aridity. Our models suggest that the P. subintegra population in Verde Valley is slowly declining and will be at greater risk of extinction with increased aridity. Across patches at a fine spatial scale, demographic performance was associated with environmental factors. Moist sites (patches with the highest soil moisture, lowest sand content, and most northern aspects) had the highest densities, highest seedling recruitment, and highest risk of extinction over the shortest time span. Extinction risk in moist sites was exacerbated by higher variance in recruitment and mortality. Dry sites had higher cumulative adult survival and lower extinction risk but negative growth rates. Steps necessary for the conservation of the species include introductions at more northern latitudes and in situ manipulations to enhance seedling recruitment and plant survival. We demonstrate that fine spatial-scale modeling is necessary to predict where patches with highest extinction risk or potential refugia for rare species may occur Because current climate projections for the 21st century imply range shifts at rates of 300 to 500 km/century, which are beyond even exceptional examples of shifts in the fossil record of 100-150 km, it is likely that preservation of many rare species will require human intervention and a long-term commitment. Global warming conditions are likely to reduce the carrying capacity of many rare species' habitats.

A unified theory of impact crises and mass extinctions: quantitative tests.

PubMed

Rampino, M R; Haggerty, B M; Pagano, T C

1997-05-30

Several quantitative tests of a general hypothesis linking impacts of large asteroids and comets with mass extinctions of life are possible based on astronomical data, impact dynamics, and geological information. The waiting times of large-body impacts on the Earth derived from the flux of Earth-crossing asteroids and comets, and the estimated size of impacts capable of causing, large-scale environmental disasters, predict the impacts of objects > or = 5 km in diameter (> or = 10(7) Mt TNT equivalent) could be sufficient to explain the record of approximately 25 extinction pulses in the last 540 Myr, with the 5 recorded major mass extinctions related to impacts of the largest objects of > or = 10 km in diameter (> or = 10(8) Mt events). Smaller impacts (approximately 10(6) Mt), with significant regional environmental effects, could be responsible for the lesser boundaries in the geologic record. Tests of the "kill curve" relationship for impact-induced extinctions based on new data on extinction intensities, and several well-dated large impact craters, also suggest that major mass extinctions require large impacts, and that a step in the kill curve may exist at impacts that produce craters of approximately 100 km diameter, smaller impacts being capable of only relatively weak extinction pulses. Single impact craters less than approximately 60 km in diameter should not be associated with detectable global extinction pulses (although they may explain stage and zone boundaries marked by lesser faunal turnover), but multiple impacts in that size range may produce significant stepped extinction pulses. Statistical tests of the last occurrences of species at mass-extinction boundaries are generally consistent with predictions for abrupt or stepped extinctions, and several boundaries are known to show "catastrophic" signatures of environmental disasters and biomass crash, impoverished postextinction fauna and flora dominated by stress-tolerant and opportunistic species, and gradual ecological recovery and radiation of new taxa. Isotopic and other geochemical signatures are also generally consistent with the expected after-effects of catastrophic impacts. Seven of the recognized extinction pulses seem to be associated with concurrent (in some cases multiple) stratigraphic impact markers (e.g., layers with high iridium, shocked minerals, microtektites), and/or large, dated impact craters. Other less well-studied crisis intervals show elevated iridium, but well below that of the K/T spike, which might be explained by low-Ir impactors, ejecta blowoff, or sedimentary reworking and dilution of impact signatures. The best explanation for a possible periodic component of approximately 30 Myr in mass extinctions and clusters of impacts is the pulselike modulation of the comet flux associated with the solar system's periodic passage through the plane of the Milky Way Galaxy. The quantitative agreement between paleontologic and astronomical data suggests an important underlying unification of the processes involved.

Uncertainty-Dependent Extinction of Fear Memory in an Amygdala-mPFC Neural Circuit Model

PubMed Central

Li, Yuzhe; Nakae, Ken; Ishii, Shin; Naoki, Honda

2016-01-01

Uncertainty of fear conditioning is crucial for the acquisition and extinction of fear memory. Fear memory acquired through partial pairings of a conditioned stimulus (CS) and an unconditioned stimulus (US) is more resistant to extinction than that acquired through full pairings; this effect is known as the partial reinforcement extinction effect (PREE). Although the PREE has been explained by psychological theories, the neural mechanisms underlying the PREE remain largely unclear. Here, we developed a neural circuit model based on three distinct types of neurons (fear, persistent and extinction neurons) in the amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). In the model, the fear, persistent and extinction neurons encode predictions of net severity, of unconditioned stimulus (US) intensity, and of net safety, respectively. Our simulation successfully reproduces the PREE. We revealed that unpredictability of the US during extinction was represented by the combined responses of the three types of neurons, which are critical for the PREE. In addition, we extended the model to include amygdala subregions and the mPFC to address a recent finding that the ventral mPFC (vmPFC) is required for consolidating extinction memory but not for memory retrieval. Furthermore, model simulations led us to propose a novel procedure to enhance extinction learning through re-conditioning with a stronger US; strengthened fear memory up-regulates the extinction neuron, which, in turn, further inhibits the fear neuron during re-extinction. Thus, our models increased the understanding of the functional roles of the amygdala and vmPFC in the processing of uncertainty in fear conditioning and extinction. PMID:27617747

Extinction maps toward the Milky Way bulge: Two-dimensional and three-dimensional tests with apogee

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schultheis, M.; Zasowski, G.; Allende Prieto, C.

Galactic interstellar extinction maps are powerful and necessary tools for Milky Way structure and stellar population analyses, particularly toward the heavily reddened bulge and in the midplane. However, due to the difficulty of obtaining reliable extinction measures and distances for a large number of stars that are independent of these maps, tests of their accuracy and systematics have been limited. Our goal is to assess a variety of photometric stellar extinction estimates, including both two-dimensional and three-dimensional extinction maps, using independent extinction measures based on a large spectroscopic sample of stars toward the Milky Way bulge. We employ stellar atmosphericmore » parameters derived from high-resolution H-band Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) spectra, combined with theoretical stellar isochrones, to calculate line-of-sight extinction and distances for a sample of more than 2400 giants toward the Milky Way bulge. We compare these extinction values to those predicted by individual near-IR and near+mid-IR stellar colors, two-dimensional bulge extinction maps, and three-dimensional extinction maps. The long baseline, near+mid-IR stellar colors are, on average, the most accurate predictors of the APOGEE extinction estimates, and the two-dimensional and three-dimensional extinction maps derived from different stellar populations along different sightlines show varying degrees of reliability. We present the results of all of the comparisons and discuss reasons for the observed discrepancies. We also demonstrate how the particular stellar atmospheric models adopted can have a strong impact on this type of analysis, and discuss related caveats.« less

Effects of a Context Shift and Multiple Context Extinction on Reactivity to Alcohol Cues

PubMed Central

MacKillop, James; Lisman, Stephen A.

2008-01-01

Cue exposure treatment (CET) attempts to reduce the influence of conditioned substance cues on addictive behavior via prolonged cue exposure with response prevention (i.e., extinction), but has received only modest empirical support in clinical trials. This may be because extinction learning appears to be context dependent and a change in context may result in a return of conditioned responding (i.e., renewal), although this has received only limited empirical examination. The current study used a four-session laboratory analogue of CET to examine whether a change in context following three sessions of alcohol cue exposure with response prevention would result in renewal of conditioned responding. In addition, this study examined whether conducting extinction in multiple contexts would attenuate renewal of conditioned responding. In a one-way between-subjects design, 73 heavy drinkers (71% male) were randomized to three conditions: 1) single context extinction (extinction to alcohol cues in the same context for three sessions followed by a context shift at the fourth session); 2) multiple context extinction (extinction to alcohol cues in different contexts each day for all four sessions); and 3) pseudo-extinction control condition (exposure to neutral cues in the same context for three sessions followed by exposure to alcohol cues at the fourth session). The results revealed the predicted cue reactivity and extinction effects, but the hypotheses that a context shift would generate renewed cue reactivity and that multiple contexts would enhance extinction were not supported. Methodological aspects of the study and the need for parametric data on the context dependency of extinction to alcohol cues are discussed. PMID:18729687

Uncertainty-Dependent Extinction of Fear Memory in an Amygdala-mPFC Neural Circuit Model.

PubMed

Li, Yuzhe; Nakae, Ken; Ishii, Shin; Naoki, Honda

2016-09-01

Uncertainty of fear conditioning is crucial for the acquisition and extinction of fear memory. Fear memory acquired through partial pairings of a conditioned stimulus (CS) and an unconditioned stimulus (US) is more resistant to extinction than that acquired through full pairings; this effect is known as the partial reinforcement extinction effect (PREE). Although the PREE has been explained by psychological theories, the neural mechanisms underlying the PREE remain largely unclear. Here, we developed a neural circuit model based on three distinct types of neurons (fear, persistent and extinction neurons) in the amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). In the model, the fear, persistent and extinction neurons encode predictions of net severity, of unconditioned stimulus (US) intensity, and of net safety, respectively. Our simulation successfully reproduces the PREE. We revealed that unpredictability of the US during extinction was represented by the combined responses of the three types of neurons, which are critical for the PREE. In addition, we extended the model to include amygdala subregions and the mPFC to address a recent finding that the ventral mPFC (vmPFC) is required for consolidating extinction memory but not for memory retrieval. Furthermore, model simulations led us to propose a novel procedure to enhance extinction learning through re-conditioning with a stronger US; strengthened fear memory up-regulates the extinction neuron, which, in turn, further inhibits the fear neuron during re-extinction. Thus, our models increased the understanding of the functional roles of the amygdala and vmPFC in the processing of uncertainty in fear conditioning and extinction.

Dissociable effects of surprise and model update in parietal and anterior cingulate cortex

PubMed Central

O’Reilly, Jill X.; Schüffelgen, Urs; Cuell, Steven F.; Behrens, Timothy E. J.; Mars, Rogier B.; Rushworth, Matthew F. S.

2013-01-01

Brains use predictive models to facilitate the processing of expected stimuli or planned actions. Under a predictive model, surprising (low probability) stimuli or actions necessitate the immediate reallocation of processing resources, but they can also signal the need to update the underlying predictive model to reflect changes in the environment. Surprise and updating are often correlated in experimental paradigms but are, in fact, distinct constructs that can be formally defined as the Shannon information (IS) and Kullback–Leibler divergence (DKL) associated with an observation. In a saccadic planning task, we observed that distinct behaviors and brain regions are associated with surprise/IS and updating/DKL. Although surprise/IS was associated with behavioral reprogramming as indexed by slower reaction times, as well as with activity in the posterior parietal cortex [human lateral intraparietal area (LIP)], the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) was specifically activated during updating of the predictive model (DKL). A second saccade-sensitive region in the inferior posterior parietal cortex (human 7a), which has connections to both LIP and ACC, was activated by surprise and modulated by updating. Pupillometry revealed a further dissociation between surprise and updating with an early positive effect of surprise and late negative effect of updating on pupil area. These results give a computational account of the roles of the ACC and two parietal saccade regions, LIP and 7a, by which their involvement in diverse tasks can be understood mechanistically. The dissociation of functional roles between regions within the reorienting/reprogramming network may also inform models of neurological phenomena, such as extinction and Balint syndrome, and neglect. PMID:23986499

Habitat islands and the equilibrium theory of island biogeography: testing some predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, M.; Dinsmore, J.J.

1988-01-01

Species-area data from a study of marsh birds are used to test five predictions generated by the equilibrium theory of island biogeography. Three predictions are supported: we found a significant species-area relationship, a non-zero level of turnover, and a variance-mean ratio of 0.5. One prediction is rejected: the extinction rates were not greater on small islands. The results of one test are equivocal: the number of species on each island was not always the same. As Gilbert (1980) suggests, a strong species-area relationship alone does not validate the theory. The avian communities we studied were on habitat islands, not true islands, and underwent complete extinction annually. Thus caution must be used before applying the theory to these and other habitat islands.

A numerical solution of Duffing's equations including the prediction of jump phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moyer, E. T., Jr.; Ghasghai-Abdi, E.

1987-01-01

Numerical methodology for the solution of Duffing's differential equation is presented. Algorithms for the prediction of multiple equilibrium solutions and jump phenomena are developed. In addition, a filtering algorithm for producing steady state solutions is presented. The problem of a rigidly clamped circular plate subjected to cosinusoidal pressure loading is solved using the developed algorithms (the plate is assumed to be in the geometrically nonlinear range). The results accurately predict regions of solution multiplicity and jump phenomena.

Extinction order and altered community structure rapidly disrupt ecosystem functioning.

PubMed

Larsen, Trond H; Williams, Neal M; Kremen, Claire

2005-05-01

By causing extinctions and altering community structure, anthropogenic disturbances can disrupt processes that maintain ecosystem integrity. However, the relationship between community structure and ecosystem functioning in natural systems is poorly understood. Here we show that habitat loss appeared to disrupt ecosystem functioning by affecting extinction order, species richness and abundance. We studied pollination by bees in a mosaic of agricultural and natural habitats in California and dung burial by dung beetles on recently created islands in Venezuela. We found that large-bodied bee and beetle species tended to be both most extinction-prone and most functionally efficient, contributing to rapid functional loss. Simulations confirmed that extinction order led to greater disruption of function than predicted by random species loss. Total abundance declined with richness and also appeared to contribute to loss of function. We demonstrate conceptually and empirically how the non-random response of communities to disturbance can have unexpectedly large functional consequences.

Evolution and Extinction Dynamics in Rugged Fitness Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sibani, Paolo; Brandt, Michael; Alstrøm, Preben

After an introductory section summarizing the paleontological data and some of their theoretical descriptions, we describe the "reset" model and its (in part analytically soluble) mean field version, which have been briefly introduced in Letters.1,2 Macroevolution is considered as a problem of stochastic dynamics in a system with many competing agents. Evolutionary events (speciations and extinctions) are triggered by fitness records found by random exploration of the agents' fitness landscapes. As a consequence, the average fitness in the system increases logarithmically with time, while the rate of extinction steadily decreases. This non-stationary dynamics is studied by numerical simulations and, in a simpler mean field version, analytically. We also consider the effect of externally added "mass" extinctions. The predictions for various quantities of paleontological interest (life-time distribution, distribution of event sizes and behavior of the rate of extinction) are robust and in good agreement with available data.

Fear extinction causes target-specific remodeling of perisomatic inhibitory synapses

PubMed Central

Trouche, Stéphanie; Sasaki, Jennifer M.; Tu, Tiffany; Reijmers, Leon G.

2013-01-01

SUMMARY A more complete understanding of how fear extinction alters neuronal activity and connectivity within fear circuits may aid in the development of strategies to treat human fear disorders. Using a c-fos based transgenic mouse, we found that contextual fear extinction silenced basal amygdala (BA) excitatory neurons that had been previously activated during fear conditioning. We hypothesized that the silencing of BA fear neurons was caused by an action of extinction on BA inhibitory synapses. In support of this hypothesis, we found extinction-induced target-specific remodeling of BA perisomatic inhibitory synapses originating from parvalbumin and cholecystokinin-positive interneurons. Interestingly, the predicted changes in the balance of perisomatic inhibition matched the silent and active states of the target BA fear neurons. These observations suggest that target-specific changes in perisomatic inhibitory synapses represent a mechanism through which experience can sculpt the activation patterns within a neural circuit. PMID:24183705

Fear extinction causes target-specific remodeling of perisomatic inhibitory synapses.

PubMed

Trouche, Stéphanie; Sasaki, Jennifer M; Tu, Tiffany; Reijmers, Leon G

2013-11-20

A more complete understanding of how fear extinction alters neuronal activity and connectivity within fear circuits may aid in the development of strategies to treat human fear disorders. Using a c-fos-based transgenic mouse, we found that contextual fear extinction silenced basal amygdala (BA) excitatory neurons that had been previously activated during fear conditioning. We hypothesized that the silencing of BA fear neurons was caused by an action of extinction on BA inhibitory synapses. In support of this hypothesis, we found extinction-induced target-specific remodeling of BA perisomatic inhibitory synapses originating from parvalbumin and cholecystokinin-positive interneurons. Interestingly, the predicted changes in the balance of perisomatic inhibition matched the silent and active states of the target BA fear neurons. These observations suggest that target-specific changes in perisomatic inhibitory synapses represent a mechanism through which experience can sculpt the activation patterns within a neural circuit. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A model of amygdala-hippocampal-prefrontal interaction in fear conditioning and extinction in animals

PubMed Central

Moustafa, Ahmed A.; Gilbertson, Mark W.; Orr, Scott P.; Herzallah, Mohammad M.; Servatius, Richard. J.; Myers, Catherine E.

2012-01-01

Empirical research has shown that the amygdala, hippocampus, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) are involved in fear conditioning. However, the functional contribution of each brain area and the nature of their interactions are not clearly understood. Here, we extend existing neural network models of the functional roles of the hippocampus in classical conditioning to include interactions with the amygdala and prefrontal cortex. We apply the model to fear conditioning, in which animals learn physiological (e.g. heart rate) and behavioral (e.g. freezing) responses to stimuli that have been paired with a highly aversive event (e.g. electrical shock). The key feature of our model is that learning of these conditioned responses in the central nucleus of the amygdala is modulated by two separate processes, one from basolateral amygdala and signaling a positive prediction error, and one from the vmPFC, via the intercalated cells of the amygdala, and signaling a negative prediction error. In addition, we propose that hippocampal input to both vmPFC and basolateral amygdala is essential for contextual modulation of fear acquisition and extinction. The model is sufficient to account for a body of data from various animal fear conditioning paradigms, including acquisition, extinction, reacquisition, and context specificity effects. Consistent with studies on lesioned animals, our model shows that damage to the vmPFC impairs extinction, while damage to the hippocampus impairs extinction in a different context (e.g., a different conditioning chamber from that used in initial training in animal experiments). We also discuss model limitations and predictions, including the effects of number of training trials on fear conditioning. PMID:23164732

Factors driving the global decline of cycad diversity.

PubMed

Mankga, Ledile T; Yessoufou, Kowiyou

2017-07-01

Mounting evidence indicates that we are witnessing the sixth mass extinction period. Given the important goods and services biodiversity delivers to humans, there is a need for a continued commitment to investigate what pre-disposes some taxa to greater risk of extinction. Here, we investigate this question using a phylogenetic comparative method and fitting a cumulative link mixed effect model on biological, ecological and evolutionary data of cycads, the most threatened lineage in the plant kingdom. We identified nine groups of threats to cycads, with habitat loss, over-collection, fire and reproduction failure being the most prominent, but only four of these threats (habitat loss, over-collection, medicinal uses and reproduction failure) clustered on the cycad tree of life. This clustering suggests that closely related species may be exposed to similar threats, perhaps because of geographic regionalization of cycad genera. Nonetheless, the diversity of threats and several variables linked to the biology and ecology of cycads correlate with extinction risk (e.g. altitude, height, diameter, geographic range), and different variables seem to be linked to different IUCN status of cycads. Although their predictive power is generally < 50 %, geographic range and maximum diameter stood out as the best predictors particularly for the Vulnerable (VU) category, with a predictive power of 87 % and 69 %, respectively. Using our best model for VU, we predicted all five Data Deficient (DD) species of cycads to be in the VU category. Collectively, our results elucidate the pattern of extinction risk in cycads and, since most threats that we identified as drivers of extinction risk of cycads are anthropogenically mediated, we recommend stronger legislation to regulate human-cycad interactions and the commitment of all governments globally to implement this regulation.

Factors driving the global decline of cycad diversity

PubMed Central

Mankga, Ledile T.

2017-01-01

Abstract Mounting evidence indicates that we are witnessing the sixth mass extinction period. Given the important goods and services biodiversity delivers to humans, there is a need for a continued commitment to investigate what pre-disposes some taxa to greater risk of extinction. Here, we investigate this question using a phylogenetic comparative method and fitting a cumulative link mixed effect model on biological, ecological and evolutionary data of cycads, the most threatened lineage in the plant kingdom. We identified nine groups of threats to cycads, with habitat loss, over-collection, fire and reproduction failure being the most prominent, but only four of these threats (habitat loss, over-collection, medicinal uses and reproduction failure) clustered on the cycad tree of life. This clustering suggests that closely related species may be exposed to similar threats, perhaps because of geographic regionalization of cycad genera. Nonetheless, the diversity of threats and several variables linked to the biology and ecology of cycads correlate with extinction risk (e.g. altitude, height, diameter, geographic range), and different variables seem to be linked to different IUCN status of cycads. Although their predictive power is generally < 50 %, geographic range and maximum diameter stood out as the best predictors particularly for the Vulnerable (VU) category, with a predictive power of 87 % and 69 %, respectively. Using our best model for VU, we predicted all five Data Deficient (DD) species of cycads to be in the VU category. Collectively, our results elucidate the pattern of extinction risk in cycads and, since most threats that we identified as drivers of extinction risk of cycads are anthropogenically mediated, we recommend stronger legislation to regulate human–cycad interactions and the commitment of all governments globally to implement this regulation. PMID:28721186

The effects of extinction-aroused attention on context conditioning.

PubMed

Nelson, James Byron; Fabiano, Andrew M; Lamoureux, Jeffrey A

2018-04-01

Two experiments assessed the effects of extinguishing a conditioned cue on subsequent context conditioning. Each experiment used a different video-game method where sensors predicted attacking spaceships and participants responded to the sensor in a way that prepared them for the upcoming attack. In Experiment 1 extinction of a cue which signaled a spaceship-attack outcome facilitated subsequent learning when the attack occurred unsignaled. In Experiment 2 extinction of a cue facilitated subsequent learning, regardless of whether the spaceship outcome was the same or different as used in the earlier training. In neither experiment did the extinction context become inhibitory. Results are discussed in terms of current associative theories of attention and conditioning. © 2018 Nelson et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Activation of D1/5 Dopamine Receptors: A Common Mechanism for Enhancing Extinction of Fear and Reward-Seeking Behaviors.

PubMed

Abraham, Antony D; Neve, Kim A; Lattal, K Matthew

2016-07-01

Dopamine is critical for many processes that drive learning and memory, including motivation, prediction error, incentive salience, memory consolidation, and response output. Theories of dopamine's function in these processes have, for the most part, been developed from behavioral approaches that examine learning mechanisms in appetitive tasks. A parallel and growing literature indicates that dopamine signaling is involved in consolidation of memories into stable representations in aversive tasks such as fear conditioning. Relatively little is known about how dopamine may modulate memories that form during extinction, when organisms learn that the relation between previously associated events is severed. We investigated whether fear and reward extinction share common mechanisms that could be enhanced with dopamine D1/5 receptor activation. Pharmacological activation of dopamine D1/5 receptors (with SKF 81297) enhanced extinction of both cued and contextual fear. These effects also occurred in the extinction of cocaine-induced conditioned place preference, suggesting that the observed effects on extinction were not specific to a particular type of procedure (aversive or appetitive). A cAMP/PKA biased D1 agonist (SKF 83959) did not affect fear extinction, whereas a broadly efficacious D1 agonist (SKF 83822) promoted fear extinction. Together, these findings show that dopamine D1/5 receptor activation is a target for the enhancement of fear or reward extinction.

A theoretical quantitative genetic study of negative ecological interactions and extinction times in changing environments.

PubMed

Jones, Adam G

2008-04-25

Rapid human-induced changes in the environment at local, regional and global scales appear to be contributing to population declines and extinctions, resulting in an unprecedented biodiversity crisis. Although in the short term populations can respond ecologically to environmental alterations, in the face of persistent change populations must evolve or become extinct. Existing models of evolution and extinction in changing environments focus only on single species, even though the dynamics of extinction almost certainly depend upon the nature of species interactions. Here, I use a model of quantitative trait evolution in a two-species community to show that negative ecological interactions, such as predation and competition, can produce unexpected results regarding time to extinction. Under some circumstances, negative interactions can be expected to hasten the extinction of species declining in numbers. However, under other circumstances, negative interactions can actually increase times to extinction. This effect occurs across a wide range of parameter values and can be substantial, in some cases allowing a population to persist for 40 percent longer than it would in the absence of the species interaction. This theoretical study indicates that negative species interactions can have unexpected positive effects on times to extinction. Consequently, detailed studies of selection and demographics will be necessary to predict the consequences of species interactions in changing environments for any particular ecological community.

Postnatal development of neurotransmitter systems and their relevance to extinction of conditioned fear.

PubMed

Kim, Jee Hyun; Perry, Christina J; Ganella, Despina E; Madsen, Heather B

2017-02-01

Remembering and forgetting are fundamental features of an organism. Extinction is a type of forgetting where there is a decrease in the significance and/or the meaning of an associative memory when elements of that memory no longer predict one another. The neural mechanisms underlying extinction of fear memories have been extensively studied in the laboratory because extinction processes are clinically relevant to exposure therapies that treat anxiety disorders. However, only in the last decade have we begun to unveil the similarities and differences in plasticity underlying extinction across development. So far it is clear that extinction is a developmentally dissociated process in behavior and in pharmacology, however there are many large gaps in the literature in understanding how the developmental trajectory of different neurotransmitters contribute to changes in the nature of extinction across development. We attempt to address these gaps in the present review. Major neurotransmitter systems including the glutamatergic and GABAergic systems, the monoamines, the endogenous opioid and cannabinoid systems, acetylcholines, and neuropeptides such as oxytocin have all been identified to play some role in extinction of fear memories and have been covered in this review. We hope to facilitate more research into mechanisms of extinction at different stages of life, especially noting that mental disorders are increasingly classified as neurodevelopmental disorders. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Attentional Control and Fear Extinction in Subclinical Fear: An Exploratory Study

PubMed Central

Forcadell, Eduard; Torrents-Rodas, David; Treen, Devi; Fullana, Miquel A.; Tortella-Feliu, Miquel

2017-01-01

Attentional control (AC) and fear extinction learning are known to be involved in pathological anxiety. In this study we explored whether individual differences in non-emotional AC were associated with individual differences in the magnitude and gradient of fear extinction (learning and recall). In 50 individuals with fear of spiders, we collected measures of non-emotional AC by means of self-report and by assessing the functioning of the major attention networks (executive control, orienting, and alerting). The participants then underwent a paradigm assessing fear extinction learning and extinction recall. The two components of the orienting network functioning (costs and benefits) were significantly associated with fear extinction gradient over and above the effects of trait anxiety. Specifically, participants with enhanced orienting costs (i.e., difficulties in disengaging attention from cues not relevant for the task) showed faster extinction learning, while those with enhanced orienting benefits (i.e., attention facilitated by valid cues) exhibited faster extinction recall as measured by fear-potentiated startle and Unconditioned Stimulus expectancies, respectively. Our findings suggest that, in non-emotional conditions, the orienting component of attention may be predictive of fear extinction. They also show that the use of fear extinction gradients and the exploration of individual differences in non-emotional AC (using performance-based measures of attentional network functioning) can provide a better understanding of individual differences in fear learning. Our findings also may help to understand differences in exposure therapy outcomes. PMID:29018384

Emotional trait and memory associates of sleep timing and quality

PubMed Central

Pace-Schott, Edward F.; Rubin, Zoe S.; Tracy, Lauren E.; Spencer, Rebecca M.C.; Orr, Scott P.; Verga, Patrick W.

2015-01-01

Poor ability to remember the extinction of conditioned fear, elevated trait anxiety, and delayed or disrupted nocturnal sleep are reported in anxiety disorders. The current study examines the interrelationship of these factors in healthy young-adult males. Skin- conductance response was conditioned to two differently colored lamps. One color but not the other was then extinguished. After varying delays, both colors were presented to determine extinction recall and generalization. Questionnaires measured sleep quality, morningness - eveningness, neuroticism and trait anxiety. A subset produced a mean 7.0 nights of actigraphy and sleep diaries. Median split of mean sleep midpoint defined early-and late-”sleep timers”. Extinction was more rapidly learned in the morning than evening only in early-timers, who also better generalized extinction recall. Extinction recall was greater with higher sleep efficiency. Sleep efficiency and morningness were negatively associated with neuroticism and anxiety. However, neuroticism and anxiety did not predict extinction learning, recall or generalization. Therefore, neuroticism/anxiety and deficient fear extinction, although both associated with poor quality and late timing of sleep, are not directly associated with each other. Elevated trait anxiety, in addition to predisposing directly to anxiety disorders, may thus also indirectly promote such disorders by impairing sleep and, consequently, extinction memory. PMID:26257092

Emotional trait and memory associates of sleep timing and quality.

PubMed

Pace-Schott, Edward F; Rubin, Zoe S; Tracy, Lauren E; Spencer, Rebecca M C; Orr, Scott P; Verga, Patrick W

2015-10-30

Poor ability to remember the extinction of conditioned fear, elevated trait anxiety, and delayed or disrupted nocturnal sleep are reported in anxiety disorders. The current study examines the interrelationship of these factors in healthy young-adult males. Skin-conductance response was conditioned to two differently colored lamps. One color but not the other was then extinguished. After varying delays, both colors were presented to determine extinction recall and generalization. Questionnaires measured sleep quality, morningness-eveningness, neuroticism and trait anxiety. A subset produced a mean 7.0 nights of actigraphy and sleep diaries. Median split of mean sleep midpoint defined early- and late-"sleep timers". Extinction was more rapidly learned in the morning than evening only in early timers who also better generalized extinction recall. Extinction recall was greater with higher sleep efficiency. Sleep efficiency and morningness were negatively associated with neuroticism and anxiety. However, neuroticism and anxiety did not predict extinction learning, recall or generalization. Therefore, neuroticism/anxiety and deficient fear extinction, although both associated with poor quality and late timing of sleep, are not directly associated with each other. Elevated trait anxiety, in addition to predisposing directly to anxiety disorders, may thus also indirectly promote such disorders by impairing sleep and, consequently, extinction memory. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of buoyancy on gas jet diffusion flames

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bahadori, M. Yousef; Edelman, Raymond B.

1993-01-01

The objective of this effort was to gain a better understanding of the fundamental phenomena involved in laminar gas jet diffusion flames in the absence of buoyancy by studying the transient phenomena of ignition and flame development, (quasi-) steady-state flame characteristics, soot effects, radiation, and, if any, extinction phenomena. This involved measurements of flame size and development, as well as temperature and radiation. Additionally, flame behavior, color, and luminosity were observed and recorded. The tests quantified the effects of Reynolds number, nozzle size, fuel reactivity and type, oxygen concentration, and pressure on flame characteristics. Analytical and numerical modeling efforts were also performed. Methane and propane flames were studied in the 2.2 Second Drop Tower and the 5.18-Second Zero-Gravity Facility of NASA LeRC. In addition, a preliminary series of tests were conducted in the KC-135 research aircraft. Both micro-gravity and normal-gravity flames were studied in this program. The results have provided unique and new information on the behavior and characteristics of gas jet diffusion flames in micro-gravity environments.

EUPDF: Eulerian Monte Carlo Probability Density Function Solver for Applications With Parallel Computing, Unstructured Grids, and Sprays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raju, M. S.

1998-01-01

The success of any solution methodology used in the study of gas-turbine combustor flows depends a great deal on how well it can model the various complex and rate controlling processes associated with the spray's turbulent transport, mixing, chemical kinetics, evaporation, and spreading rates, as well as convective and radiative heat transfer and other phenomena. The phenomena to be modeled, which are controlled by these processes, often strongly interact with each other at different times and locations. In particular, turbulence plays an important role in determining the rates of mass and heat transfer, chemical reactions, and evaporation in many practical combustion devices. The influence of turbulence in a diffusion flame manifests itself in several forms, ranging from the so-called wrinkled, or stretched, flamelets regime to the distributed combustion regime, depending upon how turbulence interacts with various flame scales. Conventional turbulence models have difficulty treating highly nonlinear reaction rates. A solution procedure based on the composition joint probability density function (PDF) approach holds the promise of modeling various important combustion phenomena relevant to practical combustion devices (such as extinction, blowoff limits, and emissions predictions) because it can account for nonlinear chemical reaction rates without making approximations. In an attempt to advance the state-of-the-art in multidimensional numerical methods, we at the NASA Lewis Research Center extended our previous work on the PDF method to unstructured grids, parallel computing, and sprays. EUPDF, which was developed by M.S. Raju of Nyma, Inc., was designed to be massively parallel and could easily be coupled with any existing gas-phase and/or spray solvers. EUPDF can use an unstructured mesh with mixed triangular, quadrilateral, and/or tetrahedral elements. The application of the PDF method showed favorable results when applied to several supersonic-diffusion flames and spray flames. The EUPDF source code will be available with the National Combustion Code (NCC) as a complete package.

The Mid-Infrared Extinction Law in the Ophiuchus, Perseus, and Serpens Molecular Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Nicholas L.; Mundy, Lee G.; Lai, Shih-Ping; Evans, Neal J., II

2009-01-01

We compute the mid-IR extinction law from 3.6 to 24 μm in three molecular clouds—Ophiuchus, Perseus, and Serpens—by combining data from the "Cores to Disks" Spitzer Legacy Science program with deep JHKs imaging. Using a new technique, we are able to calculate the line-of-sight (LOS) extinction law toward each background star in our fields. With these LOS measurements, we create, for the first time, maps of the χ2 deviation of the data from two extinction law models. Because our χ2 maps have the same spatial resolution as our extinction maps, we can directly observe the changing extinction law as a function of the total column density. In the Spitzer Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) bands, 3.6-8 μm, we see evidence for grain growth. Below A_{K_s} = 0.5, our extinction law is well fitted by the Weingartner and Draine RV = 3.1 diffuse interstellar-medium dust model. As the extinction increases, our law gradually flattens, and for A_{K_s} \\ge 1, the data are more consistent with the Weingartner and Draine RV = 5.5 model that uses larger maximum dust grain sizes. At 24 μm, our extinction law is 2-4 times higher than the values predicted by theoretical dust models, but is more consistent with the observational results of Flaherty et al. Finally, from our χ2 maps we identify a region in Perseus where the IRAC extinction law is anomalously high considering its column density. A steeper near-IR extinction law than the one we have assumed may partially explain the IRAC extinction law in this region.

Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Gratto-Trevor, Cheri L.; Aron, Carol

2014-01-01

Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Atmospheric extinction in simulation tools for solar tower plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanrieder, Natalie; Wilbert, Stefan; Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion; Schnell, Franziska; Guevara, Diana Mancera; Buck, Reiner; Giuliano, Stefano; Pitz-Paal, Robert

2017-06-01

Atmospheric extinction causes significant radiation losses between the heliostat field and the receiver in a solar tower plants. These losses vary with site and time. State of the art is that in ray-tracing and plant optimization tools, atmospheric extinction is included by choosing between few constant standard atmospheric conditions. Even though some tools allow the consideration of site and time dependent extinction data, such data sets are nearly never available. This paper summarizes and compares the most common model equations implemented in several ray-tracing tools. There are already several methods developed and published to measure extinction on-site. An overview of the existing methods is also given here. Ray-tracing simulations of one exemplary tower plant at the Plataforma Solar de Almería (PSA) are presented to estimate the plant yield deviations between simulations using standard model equations instead of extinction time series. For PSA, the effect of atmospheric extinction accounts for losses between 1.6 and 7 %. This range is caused by considering overload dumping or not. Applying standard clear or hazy model equations instead of extinction time series lead to an underestimation of the annual plant yield at PSA. The discussion of the effect of extinction in tower plants has to include overload dumping. Situations in which overload dumping occurs are mostly connected to high radiation levels and low atmospheric extinction. Therefore it can be recommended that project developers should consider site and time dependent extinction data especially on hazy sites. A reduced uncertainty of the plant yield prediction can significantly reduce costs due to smaller risk margins for financing and EPCs. The generation of extinction data for several locations in form of representative yearly time series or geographical maps should be further elaborated.

Test of Martin's overkill hypothesis using radiocarbon dates on extinct megafauna.

PubMed

Surovell, Todd A; Pelton, Spencer R; Anderson-Sprecher, Richard; Myers, Adam D

2016-01-26

Following Martin [Martin PS (1973) Science 179:969-974], we propose the hypothesis that the timing of human arrival to the New World can be assessed by examining the ecological impacts of a small population of people on extinct Pleistocene megafauna. To that end, we compiled lists of direct radiocarbon dates on paleontological specimens of extinct genera from North and South America with the expectation that the initial decline of extinct megafauna should correspond in time with the initial evidence for human colonization and that those declines should occur first in eastern Beringia, next in the contiguous United States, and last in South America. Analyses of spacings and frequency distributions of radiocarbon dates for each region support the idea that the extinction event first commenced in Beringia, roughly 13,300-15,000 BP. For the United States and South America, extinctions commenced considerably later but were closely spaced in time. For the contiguous United States, extinction began at ca. 12,900-13,200 BP, and at ca. 12,600-13,900 BP in South America. For areas south of Beringia, these estimates correspond well with the first significant evidence for human presence and are consistent with the predictions of the overkill hypothesis.

How does climate change cause extinction?

PubMed Central

Cahill, Abigail E.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Fisher-Reid, M. Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J.; Yeong Ryu, Hae; Sbeglia, Gena C.; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B.; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J.

2013-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies. PMID:23075836

How does climate change cause extinction?

PubMed

Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

2013-01-07

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

Hippocampal Erk Mechanisms Linking Prediction Error to Fear Extinction: Roles of Shock Expectancy and Contextual Aversive Valence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huh, Kyu Hwan; Guzman, Yomayra F.; Tronson, Natalie C.; Guedea, Anita L.; Gao, Can; Radulovic, Jelena

2009-01-01

Extinction of fear requires learning that anticipated aversive events no longer occur. Animal models reveal that sustained phosphorylation of the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (Erk) in hippocampal CA1 neurons plays an important role in this process. However, the key signals triggering and regulating the activity of Erk are not known. By…

A Preliminary Investigation of the Reinforcement Function of Signal Detections in Simulated Baggage Screening: Further Support for the Vigilance Reinforcement Hypothesis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hogan, Lindsey C.; Bell, Matthew; Olson, Ryan

2009-01-01

The vigilance reinforcement hypothesis (VRH) asserts that errors in signal detection tasks are partially explained by operant reinforcement and extinction processes. VRH predictions were tested with a computerized baggage screening task. Our experiment evaluated the effects of signal schedule (extinction vs. variable interval 6 min) and visual…

An analytical prediction of the oscillation and extinction thresholds of a clarinet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalmont, Jean-Pierre; Gilbert, Joël; Kergomard, Jean; Ollivier, Sébastien

2005-11-01

This paper investigates the dynamic range of the clarinet from the oscillation threshold to the extinction at high pressure level. The use of an elementary model for the reed-mouthpiece valve effect combined with a simplified model of the pipe assuming frequency independent losses (Raman's model) allows an analytical calculation of the oscillations and their stability analysis. The different thresholds are shown to depend on parameters related to embouchure parameters and to the absorption coefficient in the pipe. Their values determine the dynamic range of the fundamental oscillations and the bifurcation scheme at the extinction.

A Compact Airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar for Observations of Aerosol and Cloud Optical Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hostetler, Chris A.; Hair, John W.; Cook, Anthony L.

2002-01-01

We are in the process of developing a nadir-viewing, aircraft-based high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL) at NASA Langley Research Center. The system is designed to measure backscatter and extinction of aerosols and tenuous clouds. The primary uses of the instrument will be to validate spaceborne aerosol and cloud observations, carry out regional process studies, and assess the predictions of chemical transport models. In this paper, we provide an overview of the instrument design and present the results of simulations showing the instrument's capability to accurately measure extinction and extinction-to-backscatter ratio.

Extinction of Conditioned Fear is Better Learned and Recalled in the Morning than in the Evening

PubMed Central

Pace-Schott, Edward F.; Spencer, Rebecca M.C.; Vijayakumar, Shilpa; Ahmed, Nafis; Verga, Patrick W.; Orr, Scott P.; Pitman, Roger K.; Milad, Mohammed R.

2013-01-01

Sleep helps emotional memories consolidate and may promote generalization of fear extinction memory. We examined whether extinction learning and memory might differ in the morning and evening due, potentially, to circadian and/or sleep-homeostatic factors. Healthy men (N=109) in 6 groups completed a 2-session protocol. In Session 1, fear conditioning was followed by extinction learning. Partial reinforcement with mild electric shock produced conditioned skin conductance responses (SCR) to 2 differently colored lamps (CS+), but not a third color (CS−), within the computer image of a room (conditioning context). One CS+ (CS+E) but not the other (CS+U) was immediately extinguished by un-reinforced presentations in a different room (extinction context). Delay durations of 3 hr (within AM or PM), 12 hr (morning-to-evening or evening-to-morning) or 24 hr (morning-to-morning or evening-to-evening) followed. In Session 2, extinction recall and contextual fear renewal were tested. We observed no significant effects of the delay interval on extinction memory but did observe an effect of time-of-day. Fear extinction was significantly better if learned in the morning (p=.002). Collapsing across CS+ type, there was smaller morning differential SCR at both extinction recall (p=.003) and fear renewal (p=.005). Morning extinction recall showed better generalization from the CS+E to CS+U with the response to the CS+U significantly larger than to the CS+E only in the evening (p=.028). Thus, extinction is learned faster and its memory is better generalized in the morning. Cortisol and testosterone showed the expected greater salivary levels in the morning when higher testosterone/cortisol ratio also predicting better extinction learning. Circadian factors may promote morning extinction. Alternatively, evening homeostatic sleep pressure may impede extinction and favor recall of conditioned fear. PMID:23992769

Extinction of conditioned fear is better learned and recalled in the morning than in the evening.

PubMed

Pace-Schott, Edward F; Spencer, Rebecca M C; Vijayakumar, Shilpa; Ahmed, Nafis A K; Verga, Patrick W; Orr, Scott P; Pitman, Roger K; Milad, Mohammed R

2013-11-01

Sleep helps emotional memories consolidate and may promote generalization of fear extinction memory. We examined whether extinction learning and memory might differ in the morning and evening due, potentially, to circadian and/or sleep-homeostatic factors. Healthy men (N = 109) in 6 groups completed a 2-session protocol. In Session 1, fear conditioning was followed by extinction learning. Partial reinforcement with mild electric shock produced conditioned skin conductance responses (SCRs) to 2 differently colored lamps (CS+), but not a third color (CS-), within the computer image of a room (conditioning context). One CS+ (CS + E) but not the other (CS + U) was immediately extinguished by un-reinforced presentations in a different room (extinction context). Delay durations of 3 h (within AM or PM), 12 h (morning-to-evening or evening-to-morning) or 24 h (morning-to-morning or evening-to-evening) followed. In Session 2, extinction recall and contextual fear renewal were tested. We observed no significant effects of the delay interval on extinction memory but did observe an effect of time-of-day. Fear extinction was significantly better if learned in the morning (p = .002). Collapsing across CS + type, there was smaller morning differential SCR at both extinction recall (p = .003) and fear renewal (p = .005). Morning extinction recall showed better generalization from the CS + E to CS + U with the response to the CS + U significantly larger than to the CS + E only in the evening (p = .028). Thus, extinction is learned faster and its memory is better generalized in the morning. Cortisol and testosterone showed the expected greater salivary levels in the morning when higher testosterone/cortisol ratio also predicted better extinction learning. Circadian factors may promote morning extinction. Alternatively, evening homeostatic sleep pressure may impede extinction and favor recall of conditioned fear. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact Crises, Mass Extinctions, and Galactic Dynamics: A Unified Theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rampino, M.R.

1997-01-01

A general hypothesis linking mass extinctions of life with impacts of large asteroids and comets is based on astronomical data, impact dynamics, and geological information. The waiting times of large-body impacts on the Earth, derived from the flux of Earth-crossing asteroids and comets, and the estimated size of impacts capable of causing large-scale environmental disasters predict that impacts of objects (sup 3)5 km in diameter ((sup 3)10(exp 7) Mt TNT equivalent) could be sufficient to explain the record of about 25 extinction pulses in the last 540 m.y., with the five recorded major mass extinctions related to the impacts of the largest objects of (sup 3)10 km in diameter ( (sup 3)10(exp 8) Mt events). Smaller impacts (about 10(exp 6)-10(exp 7) Mt), with significant regional and even global environmental effects, could be responsible for the lesser boundaries in the geologic record. Tests of the "kill curve" relationship for impact-induced extinctions based on new data on extinction intensities and several well-dated large impact craters suggest that major mass extinctions require large impacts, and that a step in the kill curve may exist at impacts that produce craters of -100 km diameter, with smaller impacts capable of only relatively weak extinction pulses. Single impact craters < about 60 km in diameter should not be associated with global extinction pulses detectable in the Sepkoski database (although they may explain stage and zone boundaries marked by lesser faunal turnover), but multiple impacts in that size range may produce significant stepped extinction pulses. Statistical tests of the last occurrences of species at mass-extinction boundaries are generally consistent with predictions for abrupt or stepped extinctions, and several boundaries are known to show "catastrophic" signatures of environmental disasters and biomass crash, impoverished postextinction fauna and flora dominated by stress-tolerant and opportunistic species, and gradual ecological recovery and radiation of new taxa. Isotopic and other geochemical signatures are also generally consistent with the expected after-effects of catastrophic impacts. Seven of the recognized extinction pulses are associated with concurrent (in some cases multiple) stratigraphic impact markers (e.g., layers with high Ir, shocked minerals, microtektites), and/or large, dated impact craters. Other less-well-studied crisis intervals show elevated Ir, still well below that of the K/T spike, which might be explained by low-Ir impactors, ejecta blowoff, or the sedimentary reworking and dilution of impact signatures. The best explanation for a possible periodic component of about 30 m.y. in mass extinctions and clusters of impacts is the modulation of the comet flux associated with the solar system's periodic passage through the plane of the Milky Way Galaxy. The quantitative agreement among paleontological, geological, and astronomical data suggests an important underlying unification of the processes involved.

Optical extinction dependence on wavelength and size distribution of airborne dust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pangle, Garrett E.; Hook, D. A.; Long, Brandon J. N.; Philbrick, C. R.; Hallen, Hans D.

2013-05-01

The optical scattering from laser beams propagating through atmospheric aerosols has been shown to be very useful in describing air pollution aerosol properties. This research explores and extends that capability to particulate matter. The optical properties of Arizona Road Dust (ARD) samples are measured in a chamber that simulates the particle dispersal of dust aerosols in the atmospheric environment. Visible, near infrared, and long wave infrared lasers are used. Optical scattering measurements show the expected dependence of laser wavelength and particle size on the extinction of laser beams. The extinction at long wavelengths demonstrates reduced scattering, but chemical absorption of dust species must be considered. The extinction and depolarization of laser wavelengths interacting with several size cuts of ARD are examined. The measurements include studies of different size distributions, and their evolution over time is recorded by an Aerodynamic Particle Sizer. We analyze the size-dependent extinction and depolarization of ARD. We present a method of predicting extinction for an arbitrary ARD size distribution. These studies provide new insights for understanding the optical propagation of laser beams through airborne particulate matter.

Parasite biodiversity faces extinction and redistribution in a changing climate.

PubMed

Carlson, Colin J; Burgio, Kevin R; Dougherty, Eric R; Phillips, Anna J; Bueno, Veronica M; Clements, Christopher F; Castaldo, Giovanni; Dallas, Tad A; Cizauskas, Carrie A; Cumming, Graeme S; Doña, Jorge; Harris, Nyeema C; Jovani, Roger; Mironov, Sergey; Muellerklein, Oliver C; Proctor, Heather C; Getz, Wayne M

2017-09-01

Climate change is a well-documented driver of both wildlife extinction and disease emergence, but the negative impacts of climate change on parasite diversity are undocumented. We compiled the most comprehensive spatially explicit data set available for parasites, projected range shifts in a changing climate, and estimated extinction rates for eight major parasite clades. On the basis of 53,133 occurrences capturing the geographic ranges of 457 parasite species, conservative model projections suggest that 5 to 10% of these species are committed to extinction by 2070 from climate-driven habitat loss alone. We find no evidence that parasites with zoonotic potential have a significantly higher potential to gain range in a changing climate, but we do find that ectoparasites (especially ticks) fare disproportionately worse than endoparasites. Accounting for host-driven coextinctions, models predict that up to 30% of parasitic worms are committed to extinction, driven by a combination of direct and indirect pressures. Despite high local extinction rates, parasite richness could still increase by an order of magnitude in some places, because species successfully tracking climate change invade temperate ecosystems and replace native species with unpredictable ecological consequences.

Elastic, not plastic species: frozen plasticity theory and the origin of adaptive evolution in sexually reproducing organisms.

PubMed

Flegr, Jaroslav

2010-01-13

Darwin's evolutionary theory could easily explain the evolution of adaptive traits (organs and behavioral patterns) in asexual but not in sexual organisms. Two models, the selfish gene theory and frozen plasticity theory were suggested to explain evolution of adaptive traits in sexual organisms in past 30 years. The frozen plasticity theory suggests that sexual species can evolve new adaptations only when their members are genetically uniform, i.e. only after a portion of the population of the original species had split off, balanced on the edge of extinction for several generations, and then undergone rapid expansion. After a short period of time, estimated on the basis of paleontological data to correspond to 1-2% of the duration of the species, polymorphism accumulates in the gene pool due to frequency-dependent selection; and thus, in each generation, new mutations occur in the presence of different alleles and therefore change their selection coefficients from generation to generation. The species ceases to behave in an evolutionarily plastic manner and becomes evolutionarily elastic on a microevolutionary time-scale and evolutionarily frozen on a macroevolutionary time-scale. It then exists in this state until such changes accumulate in the environment that the species becomes extinct. Frozen plasticity theory, which includes the Darwinian model of evolution as a special case--the evolution of species in a plastic state, not only offers plenty of new predictions to be tested, but also provides explanations for a much broader spectrum of known biological phenomena than classic evolutionary theories. This article was reviewed by Rob Knight, Fyodor Kondrashov and Massimo Di Giulio (nominated by David H. Ardell).

Ignition, Burning, and Extinction of a Strained Fuel Strip

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Selerland, T.; Karagozian, A. R.

1996-01-01

Flame structure and ignition and extinction processes associated with a strained fuel strip are explored numerically using detailed transport and complex kinetics for a propane-air reaction. Ignition modes are identified that are similar to those predicted by one-step activation energy asymptotics, i.e., modes in which diffusion flames can ignite as independent or dependent interfaces, and modes in which single premixed or partially premixed flames ignite. These ignition modes are found to be dependent on critical combinations of strain rate, fuel strip thickness, and initial reactant temperatures. Extinction in this configuration is seen to occur due to fuel consumption by adjacent flames, although viscosity is seen to have the effect of delaying extinction by reducing the effective strain rate and velocity field experienced by the flames.

Estimation of species extinction: what are the consequences when total species number is unknown?

PubMed

Chen, Youhua

2014-12-01

The species-area relationship (SAR) is known to overestimate species extinction but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear to a great extent. Here, I show that when total species number in an area is unknown, the SAR model exaggerates the estimation of species extinction. It is proposed that to accurately estimate species extinction caused by habitat destruction, one of the principal prerequisites is to accurately total the species numbers presented in the whole study area. One can better evaluate and compare alternative theoretical SAR models on the accurate estimation of species loss only when the exact total species number for the whole area is clear. This presents an opportunity for ecologists to simulate more research on accurately estimating Whittaker's gamma diversity for the purpose of better predicting species loss.

Near-Limit Flamelet Phenomena in Buoyant Low Stretch Diffusion Flames Beneath a Solid Fuel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, S. L.; Tien, J. S.

2000-01-01

A unique near-limit low stretch multidimensional stable flamelet phenomena has been observed for the first time which extends the material flammability limit beyond the one-dimensional low stretch flammability limit to lower burning rates and higher relative heat losses than is possible with uniform flame coverage. During low stretch experiments burning the underside of very large radii (greater than or = 75 cm stretch rate less than or = 3/s) cylindrical cast PMMA samples, multidimensional flamelets were observed, in contrast with a one-dimensional flame that was found to blanket the surface for smaller radii samples ( higher stretch rate). Flamelets were observed by decreasing the stretch rate or by increasing the conductive heat loss from the flame. Flamelets are defined as flames that cover only part of the burning sample at any given time, but persist for many minutes. Flamelet phenomena is viewed as the flame's method of enhancing oxygen flow to the flame, through oxygen transport into the edges of the flamelet. Flamelets form as heat losses (surface radiation and solid-phase conduction) become large relative to the weakened heat release of the low stretch flame. While heat loss rates remain fairly constant, the limiting factor in the heat release of the flame is hypothesized to be the oxygen transport to the flame in this low stretch (low convective) environment. Flamelet extinction is frequently caused by encroachment of an adjacent flamelet. Large-scale whole-body flamelet oscillations at 1.2 - 1.95 Hz are noted prior to extinction of a flamelet. This oscillation is believed to be due a repeated process of excess fuel leakage through the dark channels between the flamelets, fuel premixing with slow incoming oxidizer, and subsequent rapid flame spread and retreat of the flamelet through the premixed layer. The oscillation frequency is driven by gas-phase diffusive time scales.

Dominance, biomass and extinction resistance determine the consequences of biodiversity loss for multiple coastal ecosystem processes.

PubMed

Davies, Thomas W; Jenkins, Stuart R; Kingham, Rachel; Kenworthy, Joseph; Hawkins, Stephen J; Hiddink, Jan G

2011-01-01

Key ecosystem processes such as carbon and nutrient cycling could be deteriorating as a result of biodiversity loss. However, currently we lack the ability to predict the consequences of realistic species loss on ecosystem processes. The aim of this study was to test whether species contributions to community biomass can be used as surrogate measures of their contribution to ecosystem processes. These were gross community productivity in a salt marsh plant assemblage and an intertidal macroalgae assemblage; community clearance of microalgae in sessile suspension feeding invertebrate assemblage; and nutrient uptake in an intertidal macroalgae assemblage. We conducted a series of biodiversity manipulations that represented realistic species extinction sequences in each of the three contrasting assemblages. Species were removed in a subtractive fashion so that biomass was allowed to vary with each species removal, and key ecosystem processes were measured at each stage of community disassembly. The functional contribution of species was directly proportional to their contribution to community biomass in a 1:1 ratio, a relationship that was consistent across three contrasting marine ecosystems and three ecosystem processes. This suggests that the biomass contributed by a species to an assemblage can be used to approximately predict the proportional decline in an ecosystem process when that species is lost. Such predictions represent "worst case scenarios" because, over time, extinction resilient species can offset the loss of biomass associated with the extinction of competitors. We also modelled a "best case scenario" that accounts for compensatory responses by the extant species with the highest per capita contribution to ecosystem processes. These worst and best case scenarios could be used to predict the minimum and maximum species required to sustain threshold values of ecosystem processes in the future.

Dominance, Biomass and Extinction Resistance Determine the Consequences of Biodiversity Loss for Multiple Coastal Ecosystem Processes

PubMed Central

Davies, Thomas W.; Jenkins, Stuart R.; Kingham, Rachel; Kenworthy, Joseph; Hawkins, Stephen J.; Hiddink, Jan G.

2011-01-01

Key ecosystem processes such as carbon and nutrient cycling could be deteriorating as a result of biodiversity loss. However, currently we lack the ability to predict the consequences of realistic species loss on ecosystem processes. The aim of this study was to test whether species contributions to community biomass can be used as surrogate measures of their contribution to ecosystem processes. These were gross community productivity in a salt marsh plant assemblage and an intertidal macroalgae assemblage; community clearance of microalgae in sessile suspension feeding invertebrate assemblage; and nutrient uptake in an intertidal macroalgae assemblage. We conducted a series of biodiversity manipulations that represented realistic species extinction sequences in each of the three contrasting assemblages. Species were removed in a subtractive fashion so that biomass was allowed to vary with each species removal, and key ecosystem processes were measured at each stage of community disassembly. The functional contribution of species was directly proportional to their contribution to community biomass in a 1∶1 ratio, a relationship that was consistent across three contrasting marine ecosystems and three ecosystem processes. This suggests that the biomass contributed by a species to an assemblage can be used to approximately predict the proportional decline in an ecosystem process when that species is lost. Such predictions represent “worst case scenarios” because, over time, extinction resilient species can offset the loss of biomass associated with the extinction of competitors. We also modelled a “best case scenario” that accounts for compensatory responses by the extant species with the highest per capita contribution to ecosystem processes. These worst and best case scenarios could be used to predict the minimum and maximum species required to sustain threshold values of ecosystem processes in the future. PMID:22163297

Trait-based diversification shifts reflect differential extinction among fossil taxa.

PubMed

Wagner, Peter J; Estabrook, George F

2014-11-18

Evolution provides many cases of apparent shifts in diversification associated with particular anatomical traits. Three general models connect these patterns to anatomical evolution: (i) elevated net extinction of taxa bearing particular traits, (ii) elevated net speciation of taxa bearing particular traits, and (iii) elevated evolvability expanding the range of anatomies available to some species. Trait-based diversification shifts predict elevated hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility (i.e., primitive→derived→highly derived sequences) among pairs of anatomical characters. The three specific models further predict (i) early loss of diversity for taxa retaining primitive conditions (elevated net extinction), (ii) increased diversification among later members of a clade (elevated net speciation), and (iii) increased disparity among later members in a clade (elevated evolvability). Analyses of 319 anatomical and stratigraphic datasets for fossil species and genera show that hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility exceeds the expectations of trait-independent diversification in the vast majority of cases, which was expected if trait-dependent diversification shifts are common. Excess hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility correlates with early loss of diversity for groups retaining primitive conditions rather than delayed bursts of diversity or disparity across entire clades. Cambrian clades (predominantly trilobites) alone fit null expectations well. However, it is not clear whether evolution was unusual among Cambrian taxa or only early trilobites. At least among post-Cambrian taxa, these results implicate models, such as competition and extinction selectivity/resistance, as major drivers of trait-based diversification shifts at the species and genus levels while contradicting the predictions of elevated net speciation and elevated evolvability models.

Trait synergisms and the rarity, extirpation, and extinction risk of desert fishes.

PubMed

Olden, Julian D; Poff, N LeRoy; Bestgen, Kevin R

2008-03-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of species extinctions is a central goal in ecology. Faced with the difficult task of identifying those species with the greatest need for conservation, ecologists have turned to using predictive suites of ecological and life-history traits to provide reasonable estimates of species extinction risk. Previous studies have linked individual traits to extinction risk, yet the nonadditive contribution of multiple traits to the entire extinction process, from species rarity to local extirpation to global extinction, has not been examined. This study asks whether trait synergisms predispose native fishes of the Lower Colorado River Basin (USA) to risk of extinction through their effects on rarity and local extirpation and their vulnerability to different sources of threat. Fish species with "slow" life histories (e.g., large body size, long life, and delayed maturity), minimal parental care to offspring, and specialized feeding behaviors are associated with smaller geographic distribution, greater frequency of local extirpation, and higher perceived extinction risk than that expected by simple additive effects of traits in combination. This supports the notion that trait synergisms increase the susceptibility of native fishes to multiple stages of the extinction process, thus making them prone to the multiple jeopardies resulting from a combination of fewer individuals, narrow environmental tolerances, and long recovery times following environmental change. Given that particular traits, some acting in concert, may differentially predispose native fishes to rarity, extirpation, and extinction, we suggest that management efforts in the Lower Colorado River Basin should be congruent with the life-history requirements of multiple species over large spatial and temporal scales.

Extinction of conditioned opiate withdrawal in rats is blocked by intracerebroventricular infusion of an NMDA receptor antagonist.

PubMed

Coleman, Brian R; Carlezon, William A; Myers, Karyn M

2013-04-29

Maladaptive conditioned responses (CRs) contribute to psychiatric disorders including anxiety disorders and addiction. Methods of reducing these CRs have been considered as possible therapeutic approaches. One such method is extinction, which involves exposure to CR-eliciting cues in the absence of the event they once predicted. In animal models, extinction reduces both fear and addiction-related CRs, and in humans, extinction-based cue exposure therapy (CET) reduces fear CRs. However, CET is less effective in drug addicts, for reasons that are not clear. Increased understanding of the neurobiology of extinction of drug-related CRs as compared to fear CRs may help illuminate this issue. Here, we examine the N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) receptor-dependence of extinction of conditioned opiate withdrawal in rats. Using a place conditioning paradigm, we trained morphine-dependent rats to associate an environment with naloxone-precipitated withdrawal. We then extinguished that association by returning the rats repeatedly to the environment in the absence of acute withdrawal. In some rats we administered the NMDA receptor antagonist d,l-2-amino-5-phosphovaleric acid (AP5) intracerebroventricularly immediately prior to extinction training. In a subsequent test session, these rats avoided the formerly naloxone-paired environment, similar to rats that had not undergone extinction training. By contrast, rats that received vehicle prior to extinction training did not avoid the formerly naloxone-paired environment. This finding indicates that extinction of a drug-related CR (conditioned opiate withdrawal) is dependent on NMDA receptors, similar to extinction of conditioned fear. The locus of the critical NMDA receptors is unclear but may include basolateral amygdala and/or medial prefrontal cortex. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extinction of conditioned opiate withdrawal in rats is blocked by intracerebroventricular infusion of an NMDA receptor antagonist

PubMed Central

Coleman, Brian R.; Carlezon, William A.; Myers, Karyn M.

2015-01-01

Maladaptive conditioned responses (CRs) contribute to psychiatric disorders including anxiety disorders and addiction. Methods of reducing these CRs have been considered as possible therapeutic approaches. One such method is extinction, which involves exposure to CR-eliciting cues in the absence of the event they once predicted. In animal models, extinction reduces both fear and addiction-related CRs, and in humans, extinction-based cue exposure therapy (CET) reduces fear CRs. However, CET is less effective in drug addicts, for reasons that are not clear. Increased understanding of the neurobiology of extinction of drug-related CRs as compared to fear CRs may help illuminate this issue. Here, we examine the N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor-dependence of extinction of conditioned opiate withdrawal in rats. Using a place conditioning paradigm, we trained morphine-dependent rats to associate an environment with naloxone-precipitated withdrawal. We then extinguished that association by returning the rats repeatedly to the environment in the absence of acute withdrawal. In some rats we administered the NMDA receptor antagonist D,L-2-amino-5-phosphovaleric acid (AP5) intracerebroventricularly immediately prior to extinction training. In a subsequent test session, these rats avoided the formerly naloxone-paired environment, similar to rats that had not undergone extinction training. By contrast, rats that received vehicle prior to extinction training did not avoid the formerly naloxone-paired environment. This finding indicates that extinction of a drug-related CR (conditioned opiate withdrawal) is dependent on NMDA receptors, similar to extinction of conditioned fear. The locus of the critical NMDA receptors is unclear but may include basolateral amygdala and/or medial prefrontal cortex. PMID:23416323

Fear of cultural extinction and psychopathology among Mandaean refugees: an exploratory path analysis.

PubMed

Nickerson, Angela; Bryant, Richard A; Brooks, Robert; Steel, Zachary; Silove, Derrick

2009-01-01

The Mandaeans are a small religious community originating from Iraq and Iran who are facing the possibility of cultural extinction within the next few generations. This study aimed to examine the relationships between life experiences, psychopathology and fear of cultural extinction in Mandaean refugees. A survey was conducted of 315 adult Iraqi Mandaean refugees living in Australia. Past traumatic experiences and current resettlement difficulties were assessed. Mental health outcomes were also examined, including measures of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. Fear of cultural extinction was measured by items developed in consultation with the Mandaean community. A path analysis was employed to investigate the relationship between trauma, living difficulties, PTSD, depression, and fear of cultural extinction. Results indicated that trauma and living difficulties impacted indirectly on fear of cultural extinction, while PTSD (and not depression) directly predicted levels of anxiety about the Mandaean culture ceasing to exist. The current findings indicate that past trauma and symptoms of posttraumatic stress contribute to fear of cultural extinction. Exposure to human rights violations enacted on the basis of religion has significant mental health consequences that extend beyond PTSD. The relationship between perception of threat, PTSD, and fear of cultural extinction is considered in the context of cognitive models of traumatic stress. Government immigration policy must prioritize the reunification of small, endangered groups to sustain cultural traditions. Treatment interventions implemented with cultural groups facing extinction should take into consideration anxiety about loss of culture.

Acquisition of CS-US contingencies during Pavlovian fear conditioning and extinction in social anxiety disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Rabinak, Christine A; Mori, Shoko; Lyons, Maryssa; Milad, Mohammed R; Phan, K Luan

2017-01-01

Fear-based disorders, like social anxiety disorder (SAD) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), are characterized by an exaggerated fear response and avoidance to trigger cues, suggesting a transdiagnostic mechanism of psychopathology. Current theories suggest that abnormalities in conditioned fear is a primary contributor to the pathophysiology of these disorders. The primary goal of this study was to compare acquisition of conditioned stimulus (CS) and aversive unconditioned stimulus (US) contingencies during fear learning and extinction in individuals with SAD and PTSD. In a standard Pavlovian fear conditioning-extinction paradigm we measured subjective US expectancy ratings to different CSs in patients with SAD (n=16) compared to patients with PTSD (n=13) and healthy controls (n=15) RESULTS: Both patient groups (SAD, PTSD) acquired differential conditioning between a CS that predicted US (CS+) and a CS that never predicted the US (CS-), however, both groups reported an increased expectancy that the US would occur following the CS-. Additionally, the PTSD group overestimated that the US would occur in general. Neither patient group showed evidence of successful extinction of the CS+-US contingency nor differentiated their expectation of US occurrence between the CS+ and CS- during extinction learning. Group sample sizes were small and we did not include a trauma-exposed group without PTSD CONCLUSIONS: Both SAD and PTSD generalize expectations of an aversive outcome across CSs, even when a CS never signals an aversive outcome and PTSD may tend to over-expect threat. Fear learning and extinction abnormalities may be a core feature underlying shared symptoms across fear-based disorders. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The path to host extinction can lead to loss of generalist parasites.

PubMed

Farrell, Maxwell J; Stephens, Patrick R; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Gittleman, John L; Davies, T Jonathan

2015-07-01

Host extinction can alter disease transmission dynamics, influence parasite extinction and ultimately change the nature of host-parasite systems. While theory predicts that single-host parasites are among the parasite species most susceptible to extinction following declines in their hosts, documented parasite extinctions are rare. Using a comparative approach, we investigate how the richness of single-host and multi-host parasites is influenced by extinction risk among ungulate and carnivore hosts. Host-parasite associations for free-living carnivores (order Carnivora) and terrestrial ungulates (orders Perissodactyla + Cetartiodactyla minus cetaceans) were merged with host trait data and IUCN Red List status to explore the distribution of single-host and multi-host parasites among threatened and non-threatened hosts. We find that threatened ungulates harbour a higher proportion of single-host parasites compared to non-threatened ungulates, which is explained by decreases in the richness of multi-host parasites. However, among carnivores threat status is not a significant predictor of the proportion of single-host parasites, or the richness of single-host or multi-host parasites. The loss of multi-host parasites from threatened ungulates may be explained by decreased cross-species contact as hosts decline and habitats become fragmented. Among carnivores, threat status may not be important in predicting patterns of parasite specificity because host decline results in equal losses of both single-host parasites and multi-host parasites through reduction in average population density and frequency of cross-species contact. Our results contrast with current models of parasite coextinction and highlight the need for updated theories that are applicable across host groups and account for both inter- and intraspecific contact. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Dust models post-Planck: constraining the far-infrared opacity of dust in the diffuse interstellar medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fanciullo, L.; Guillet, V.; Aniano, G.; Jones, A. P.; Ysard, N.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Boulanger, F.; Köhler, M.

2015-08-01

Aims: We compare the performance of several dust models in reproducing the dust spectral energy distribution (SED) per unit extinction in the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM). We use our results to constrain the variability of the optical properties of big grains in the diffuse ISM, as published by the Planck collaboration. Methods: We use two different techniques to compare the predictions of dust models to data from the Planck HFI, IRAS, and SDSS surveys. First, we fit the far-infrared emission spectrum to recover the dust extinction and the intensity of the interstellar radiation field (ISRF). Second, we infer the ISRF intensity from the total power emitted by dust per unit extinction, and then predict the emission spectrum. In both cases, we test the ability of the models to reproduce dust emission and extinction at the same time. Results: We identify two issues. Not all models can reproduce the average dust emission per unit extinction: there are differences of up to a factor ~2 between models, and the best accord between model and observation is obtained with the more emissive grains derived from recent laboratory data on silicates and amorphous carbons. All models fail to reproduce the variations in the emission per unit extinction if the only variable parameter is the ISRF intensity: this confirms that the optical properties of dust are indeed variable in the diffuse ISM. Conclusions: Diffuse ISM observations are consistent with a scenario where both ISRF intensity and dust optical properties vary. The ratio of the far-infrared opacity to the V band extinction cross-section presents variations of the order of ~20% (40-50% in extreme cases), while ISRF intensity varies by ~30% (~60% in extreme cases). This must be accounted for in future modelling. Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

The Effect of Size and Ecology on Extinction Susceptibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huynh, C.; Yuan, A.; Heim, N.; Payne, J.

2015-12-01

Although life on Earth first emerged as prokaryotic organisms, it eventually evolved into billions of different species. However, extinctions on Earth, especially the five mass extinctions, have decimated species. So what leads to a species survival or demise during a mass extinction? Are certain species more susceptible to extinctions based on their size and ecology? For this project, we focused on the data of marine animals. To examine the impact of size and ecology on a species's likelihood of survival, we compared the sizes and ecologies of the survivors and victims of the five mass extinctions. The ecology, or life mode, of a genus consists of the combination of tiering, motility, and feeding mechanism. Tiering refers to the animal's typical location in the water column and sediments, motility refers to its ability to move, and feeding mechanism describes the way the organism eats; together, they describe the animal's behavior. We analyzed the effect of ecology on survival using logistic regression, which compares life mode to the success or failure of a genus during each mass extinction interval. For organism size, we found the extinct organisms' mean size (both volume and length) and compared it with the average size of survivors on a graph. Our results show that while surviving genera of mass extinctions tended to be slightly larger than those that went extinct, there was no significant difference. Even though the Permian (Changhsingian) and Triassic (Rhaetian) extinctions had larger surviving species, likewise the difference was small. Ecology had a more obvious impact on the likelihood of survival; fast-moving, predatory pelagic organisms were the most likely to go extinct, while sedentary, infaunal suspension feeders had the greatest chances of survival. Overall, ecology played a greater role than size in determining the survival of a species. With this information, we can use ecology to predict which species would survive future extinctions.

Glucocorticoid receptors and extinction retention deficits in the single prolonged stress model.

PubMed

Knox, D; Nault, T; Henderson, C; Liberzon, I

2012-10-25

Single prolonged stress (SPS) is a rodent model of post traumatic stress disorder that is comprised of serial application of restraint (r), forced swim (fs), and ether (eth) followed by a 7-day quiescent period. SPS induces extinction retention deficits and it is believed that these deficits are caused by the combined stressful effect of serial exposure to r, fs, and eth. However, this hypothesis remains untested. Neurobiological mechanisms by which SPS induces extinction retention deficits are unknown, but SPS enhances glucocorticoid receptor (GR) expression in the hippocampus, which is critical for contextual modulation of extinction retrieval. Upregulation of GRs in extinction circuits may be a mechanism by which SPS induces extinction retention deficits, but this hypothesis has not been examined. In this study, we systematically altered the stressors that constitute SPS (i.e. r, fs, eth), generating a number of partial SPS (p-SPS) groups, and observed the effects SPS and p-SPSs had on extinction retention and GR levels in the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex (PFC). PFC GRs were assayed, because regions of the PFC are critical for maintaining extinction. We predicted that only exposure to full SPS would result in extinction retention deficits and enhance hippocampal and PFC GR levels. Only exposure to full SPS induced extinction retention deficits. Hippocampal and PFC GR expression was enhanced by SPS and most p-SPSs, however hippocampal GR expression was significantly larger following the full SPS exposure than all other conditions. Our findings suggest that the combined stressful effect of serial exposure to r, fs, and eth results in extinction retention deficits. The results also suggest that simple enhancements in GR expression in the hippocampus and PFC are insufficient to result in extinction retention deficits, but raise the possibility that a threshold-enhancement in hippocampal GR expression contributes to SPS-induced extinction retention deficits. Copyright © 2012 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting loss of evolutionary history: Where are we?

PubMed

Veron, Simon; Davies, T Jonathan; Cadotte, Marc W; Clergeau, Philippe; Pavoine, Sandrine

2017-02-01

The Earth's evolutionary history is threatened by species loss in the current sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history. Such extinction events not only eliminate species but also their unique evolutionary histories. Here we review the expected loss of Earth's evolutionary history quantified by phylogenetic diversity (PD) and evolutionary distinctiveness (ED) at risk. Due to the general paucity of data, global evolutionary history losses have been predicted for only a few groups, such as mammals, birds, amphibians, plants, corals and fishes. Among these groups, there is now empirical support that extinction threats are clustered on the phylogeny; however this is not always a sufficient condition to cause higher loss of phylogenetic diversity in comparison to a scenario of random extinctions. Extinctions of the most evolutionarily distinct species and the shape of phylogenetic trees are additional factors that can elevate losses of evolutionary history. Consequently, impacts of species extinctions differ among groups and regions, and even if global losses are low within large groups, losses can be high among subgroups or within some regions. Further, we show that PD and ED are poorly protected by current conservation practices. While evolutionary history can be indirectly protected by current conservation schemes, optimizing its preservation requires integrating phylogenetic indices with those that capture rarity and extinction risk. Measures based on PD and ED could bring solutions to conservation issues, however they are still rarely used in practice, probably because the reasons to protect evolutionary history are not clear for practitioners or due to a lack of data. However, important advances have been made in the availability of phylogenetic trees and methods for their construction, as well as assessments of extinction risk. Some challenges remain, and looking forward, research should prioritize the assessment of expected PD and ED loss for more taxonomic groups and test the assumption that preserving ED and PD also protects rare species and ecosystem services. Such research will be useful to inform and guide the conservation of Earth's biodiversity and the services it provides. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Dry Chemical Development - A Model for the Extinction of Hydrocarbon Flames.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-02-08

and predicts the suppression effectiveness of a wide variety of gaseous, liquid, and solid agents . The flame extinguishment model is based on the...generalized by consideration of all endothermic reaction sinks, eg., vaporization, dissociation, and decomposition. The general equation correlates...CHEMICAL DEVELOPMENT - A MODEL FOR THE EXTINCTION OF HYDROCARBON FLAMES Various fire-extinguishing agents are carried on board Navy ships to control

75 FR 29489 - Listing Endangered and Threatened Species: Completion of a Review of the Status of the Oregon...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-26

... chance of not going extinct in 100 years. In addition, the BRT was concerned that the values for the... during the last 50 years. Total spawning escapement of naturally produced OC coho held steady through the... sustainable. The model predicts the likelihood that the ESU will persist (i.e., not go extinct) over a 100...

Electro-optic Mach-Zehnder Interferometer based Optical Digital Magnitude Comparator and 1's Complement Calculator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Ajay; Raghuwanshi, Sanjeev Kumar

2016-06-01

The optical switching activity is one of the most essential phenomena in the optical domain. The electro-optic effect-based switching phenomena are applicable to generate some effective combinational and sequential logic circuits. The processing of digital computational technique in the optical domain includes some considerable advantages of optical communication technology, e.g. immunity to electro-magnetic interferences, compact size, signal security, parallel computing and larger bandwidth. The paper describes some efficient technique to implement single bit magnitude comparator and 1's complement calculator using the concepts of electro-optic effect. The proposed techniques are simulated on the MATLAB software. However, the suitability of the techniques is verified using the highly reliable Opti-BPM software. It is interesting to analyze the circuits in order to specify some optimized device parameter in order to optimize some performance affecting parameters, e.g. crosstalk, extinction ratio, signal losses through the curved and straight waveguide sections.

Effect of atmospheric extinction on laser rangefinder performance at 1.54 and 0.6 microns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hutt, D. L.; Theriault, J.-M.; Larochelle, V.; Bonnier, D.

1992-01-01

Extinction of laser rangefinder (LRF) pulses by the atmosphere depends on the wavelength, weather conditions, and aerosol concentration along the optical path. In the IR, extinction is due to absorption by molecular constituents and scattering and absorption by aerosols. The total atmospheric extinction alpha(lambda) is the sum of the molecular and aerosol contributions, alpha(sub m)(lambda)and Alpha(sub a)(lambda). We present simple expressions for alpha(sub m)(lambda) and alpha(sub a)(lambda) for two LRF sources: Er:glass and CO2 which operate at 1.54 and 10.6 microns, respectively. The expressions are based on accepted models of atmospheric aerosols and molecular extinction and give an estimate of alpha(lambda) as a function of standard meteorological parameters, assuming horizontal beam propagation. Signal-to-noise ratios of LRF returns, measured from a reference target under different weather conditions are compared to predictions based on the estimate of alpha(lambda).

30 Doradus - Ultraviolet and optical stellar photometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Jesse K.; Bohlin, Ralph C.; Cheng, Kwang-Ping; Fanelli, Michael N.; Hintzen, Paul; O'Connell, Robert W.; Roberts, Morton S.; Smith, Andrew M.; Smith, Eric P.; Stecher, Theodore P.

1993-01-01

Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (UIT) UV magnitudes in four bands, together with optical B magnitudes, are presented for up to 314 early-type stars located in a 9.7 x 9.7 arcmin field centered on R136. The magnitudes have an rms uncertainty estimated at 0.10 mag from a comparison between the UIT magnitudes and the IUE spectra. Spectral types and E(B-V) color excesses are estimated. The mean color excesses following the two extinction curves agree well with the predictions of the two-component extinction model of Fitzpatrick and Savage (1984). However, the degree of nebular extinction is found to vary systematically by large amounts over the 30 Dor field. The minimum of nebular extinction in the central parts of the nebula suggests that dust has been expelled from this region by stellar winds. It is suggested that the form of the UV extinction curve can be understood as a consequence of the evolutionary state of the stellar population responsible for making the dust grains.

Geyser decline and extinction in New Zealand: energy development impacts and implications for environmental management.

PubMed

Barrick, Kenneth A

2007-06-01

Geysers are rare natural phenomena that represent increasingly important recreation, economic, and scientific resources. The features of geyser basins, including hot springs, mud pots, and fumaroles, are easily damaged by human development. In New Zealand, the extinction of more than 100 geysers provides important lessons for the environmental management of the world's remaining geyser basins. The impacts on New Zealand's geysers are described in sequential "phases," including the following: the first use of geothermal resources by the indigenous people-the Maori; early European-style tourism and spa development; streamside geyser decline caused by river level modification at the Spa geyser basin; multiple geyser basin extinctions caused by industrial-scale geothermal well withdrawal at Wairakei; the drowning of geysers at Orakeikorako after the filling of a hydroelectric reservoir; and geyser decline caused by geothermal well heating systems in Rotorua City. The crisis in Rotorua prompted preservation of the few remaining geysers at Whakarewarewa -- the last major geyser basin in New Zealand. The New Zealand government ordered the geothermal wells within 1.5 km of Pohutu Geyser, Whakarewarewa, to be closed, which was a locally controversial measure. The well closure program resulted in a partial recovery of the Rotorua geothermal reservoir, but no extinct geysers recovered. The implications of recent geothermal computer modeling and future planning are discussed. The New Zealand case suggests that the protection of geysers requires strong regulations that prevent incompatible development at the outset, a prescription that is especially relevant for the future management of the geothermal fields adjacent to the geyser basins of Yellowstone National Park, U.S.A.

Fear conditioning and extinction in anxiety- and depression-prone persons.

PubMed

Dibbets, Pauline; van den Broek, Anne; Evers, Elisabeth A T

2015-01-01

Anxiety and depression frequently co-occur and may share similar deficits in the processing of emotional stimuli. High anxiety is associated with a failure in the acquisition and extinction of fear conditioning. Despite the supposed common deficits, no research has been conducted on fear acquisition and extinction in depression. The main aim of the present study was to investigate and compare fear acquisition and extinction in anxiety- and depression-prone participants. Non-clinical anxious, depressive, anxious-depressive and control participants performed a fear discrimination task. During acquisition, the CS+ predicted an aversive event (unconditioned stimulus, US) and the CS- safety (no US). During extinction, the CS+ was no longer followed by the US, rendering it (temporarily) into a safety signal. On each CS participants rated their US expectancy; skin conductance responses (SCRs) were measured throughout. The expectancy scores indicated that high anxiety resulted in less safety learning during acquisition and extinction; no effect of depression was observed. SCRs showed that high-anxiety persons displayed less discrimination learning (CS+ minus CS-) during acquisition than low-anxiety persons. During extinction, high-depression persons demonstrated more discriminative SCR than low-depression persons. The observed discrepancies in response patterns of high-anxiety and -depression persons seem to indicate distinctive information processing of emotional stimuli.

Fish extinctions alter nutrient recycling in tropical freshwaters.

PubMed

McIntyre, Peter B; Jones, Laura E; Flecker, Alexander S; Vanni, Michael J

2007-03-13

There is increasing evidence that species extinctions jeopardize the functioning of ecosystems. Overfishing and other human influences are reducing the diversity and abundance of fish worldwide, but the ecosystem-level consequences of these changes have not been assessed quantitatively. Recycling of nutrients is one important ecosystem process that is directly influenced by fish. Fish species vary widely in the rates at which they excrete nitrogen and phosphorus; thus, altering fish communities could affect nutrient recycling. Here, we use extensive field data on nutrient recycling rates and population sizes of fish species in a Neotropical river and Lake Tanganyika, Africa, to evaluate the effects of simulated extinctions on nutrient recycling. In both of these species-rich ecosystems, recycling was dominated by relatively few species, but contributions of individual species differed between nitrogen and phosphorus. Alternative extinction scenarios produced widely divergent patterns. Loss of the species targeted by fishermen led to faster declines in nutrient recycling than extinctions in order of rarity, body size, or trophic position. However, when surviving species were allowed to increase after extinctions, these compensatory responses had strong moderating effects even after losing many species. Our results underscore the complexity of predicting the consequences of extinctions from species-rich animal communities. Nevertheless, the importance of exploited species in nutrient recycling suggests that overfishing could have particularly detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning.

Mass extinctions drove increased global faunal cosmopolitanism on the supercontinent Pangaea.

PubMed

Button, David J; Lloyd, Graeme T; Ezcurra, Martín D; Butler, Richard J

2017-10-10

Mass extinctions have profoundly impacted the evolution of life through not only reducing taxonomic diversity but also reshaping ecosystems and biogeographic patterns. In particular, they are considered to have driven increased biogeographic cosmopolitanism, but quantitative tests of this hypothesis are rare and have not explicitly incorporated information on evolutionary relationships. Here we quantify faunal cosmopolitanism using a phylogenetic network approach for 891 terrestrial vertebrate species spanning the late Permian through Early Jurassic. This key interval witnessed the Permian-Triassic and Triassic-Jurassic mass extinctions, the onset of fragmentation of the supercontinent Pangaea, and the origins of dinosaurs and many modern vertebrate groups. Our results recover significant increases in global faunal cosmopolitanism following both mass extinctions, driven mainly by new, widespread taxa, leading to homogenous 'disaster faunas'. Cosmopolitanism subsequently declines in post-recovery communities. These shared patterns in both biotic crises suggest that mass extinctions have predictable influences on animal distribution and may shed light on biodiversity loss in extant ecosystems.Mass extinctions are thought to produce 'disaster faunas', communities dominated by a small number of widespread species. Here, Button et al. develop a phylogenetic network approach to test this hypothesis and find that mass extinctions did increase faunal cosmopolitanism across Pangaea during the late Palaeozoic and early Mesozoic.

Ecomorphological selectivity among marine teleost fishes during the end-Cretaceous extinction

PubMed Central

Friedman, Matt

2009-01-01

Despite the attention focused on mass extinction events in the fossil record, patterns of extinction in the dominant group of marine vertebrates—fishes—remain largely unexplored. Here, I demonstrate ecomorphological selectivity among marine teleost fishes during the end-Cretaceous extinction, based on a genus-level dataset that accounts for lineages predicted on the basis of phylogeny but not yet sampled in the fossil record. Two ecologically relevant anatomical features are considered: body size and jaw-closing lever ratio. Extinction intensity is higher for taxa with large body sizes and jaws consistent with speed (rather than force) transmission; resampling tests indicate that victims represent a nonrandom subset of taxa present in the final stage of the Cretaceous. Logistic regressions of the raw data reveal that this nonrandom distribution stems primarily from the larger body sizes of victims relative to survivors. Jaw mechanics are also a significant factor for most dataset partitions but are always less important than body size. When data are corrected for phylogenetic nonindependence, jaw mechanics show a significant correlation with extinction risk, but body size does not. Many modern large-bodied, predatory taxa currently suffering from overexploitation, such billfishes and tunas, first occur in the Paleocene, when they appear to have filled the functional space vacated by some extinction victims. PMID:19276106

Ecomorphological selectivity among marine teleost fishes during the end-Cretaceous extinction.

PubMed

Friedman, Matt

2009-03-31

Despite the attention focused on mass extinction events in the fossil record, patterns of extinction in the dominant group of marine vertebrates-fishes-remain largely unexplored. Here, I demonstrate ecomorphological selectivity among marine teleost fishes during the end-Cretaceous extinction, based on a genus-level dataset that accounts for lineages predicted on the basis of phylogeny but not yet sampled in the fossil record. Two ecologically relevant anatomical features are considered: body size and jaw-closing lever ratio. Extinction intensity is higher for taxa with large body sizes and jaws consistent with speed (rather than force) transmission; resampling tests indicate that victims represent a nonrandom subset of taxa present in the final stage of the Cretaceous. Logistic regressions of the raw data reveal that this nonrandom distribution stems primarily from the larger body sizes of victims relative to survivors. Jaw mechanics are also a significant factor for most dataset partitions but are always less important than body size. When data are corrected for phylogenetic nonindependence, jaw mechanics show a significant correlation with extinction risk, but body size does not. Many modern large-bodied, predatory taxa currently suffering from overexploitation, such billfishes and tunas, first occur in the Paleocene, when they appear to have filled the functional space vacated by some extinction victims.

Orbitofrontal cortex inactivation impairs between- but not within-session Pavlovian extinction: an associative analysis.

PubMed

Panayi, Marios C; Killcross, Simon

2014-02-01

The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) is argued to be the neural locus of Pavlovian outcome expectancies. Reinforcement learning theories argue that extinction learning in Pavlovian procedures is caused by the discrepancy between the expected value of the outcome (US) that is elicited by a predictive stimulus (CS), and the lack of experienced US. If the OFC represents Pavlovian outcome expectancies that are necessary for extinction learning, then disrupting OFC function prior to extinction training should impair extinction learning. This was tested. In experiment 1, Long Evans rats received infusions of saline or muscimol targeting the lateral OFC prior to three appetitive Pavlovian extinction sessions. Muscimol infused into the OFC disrupted between-session but not within-session extinction behaviour. This finding was not due to muscimol infusions disrupting the memory consolidation process per se as there was no effect of muscimol infusion when administered immediately post session (experiment 2). These findings support a role for the OFC in representing outcome expectancies that are necessary for learning. A number of ways in which disrupting outcome expectancy information might block learning will be discussed in the context of traditional associative learning theories and the associative structures they depend on. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Red coral extinction risk enhanced by ocean acidification

PubMed Central

Cerrano, Carlo; Cardini, Ulisse; Bianchelli, Silvia; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Pusceddu, Antonio; Danovaro, Roberto

2013-01-01

The red coral Corallium rubrum is a habitat-forming species with a prominent and structural role in mesophotic habitats, which sustains biodiversity hotspots. This precious coral is threatened by both over-exploitation and temperature driven mass mortality events. We report here that biocalcification, growth rates and polyps' (feeding) activity of Corallium rubrum are significantly reduced at pCO2 scenarios predicted for the end of this century (0.2 pH decrease). Since C. rubrum is a long-living species (>200 years), our results suggest that ocean acidification predicted for 2100 will significantly increases the risk of extinction of present populations. Given the functional role of these corals in the mesophotic zone, we predict that ocean acidification might have cascading effects on the functioning of these habitats worldwide. PMID:23492780

Are Adonis and Hephaistos "Extinct" Comets?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babadzhanov, P. B.

The investigation of the evolution of Earth-approaching asteroids with the aim of revealing their meteor streams is one of the ways to determine if these asteroids are extinct comets. The orbital evolution of asteroids 2101 Adonis and 2212 Hephaistos studied, respectively, by AlfanGoryachev and Everhart methods shows that these asteroids cross the Earth's orbit four times. Their possible meteoroid swarms may therefore produce four meteor showers each. In this work, the theoretically predicted orbital elements and radiants of these streams are compared to the available observational data. In the cases of both Adonis and Hephaistos, all four meteor showers are shown to be active. Most likely, these asteroids are extinct comets.

An improved cyan fluorescent protein variant useful for FRET.

PubMed

Rizzo, Mark A; Springer, Gerald H; Granada, Butch; Piston, David W

2004-04-01

Many genetically encoded biosensors use Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) between fluorescent proteins to report biochemical phenomena in living cells. Most commonly, the enhanced cyan fluorescent protein (ECFP) is used as the donor fluorophore, coupled with one of several yellow fluorescent protein (YFP) variants as the acceptor. ECFP is used despite several spectroscopic disadvantages, namely a low quantum yield, a low extinction coefficient and a fluorescence lifetime that is best fit by a double exponential. To improve the characteristics of ECFP for FRET measurements, we used a site-directed mutagenesis approach to overcome these disadvantages. The resulting variant, which we named Cerulean (ECFP/S72A/Y145A/H148D), has a greatly improved quantum yield, a higher extinction coefficient and a fluorescence lifetime that is best fit by a single exponential. Cerulean is 2.5-fold brighter than ECFP and replacement of ECFP with Cerulean substantially improves the signal-to-noise ratio of a FRET-based sensor for glucokinase activation.

A 2MASS Analysis of the Stability and Star Formation in Southern Bok Globules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Racca, G. A.; de La Reza, R.

2006-06-01

Bok globules are the simplest molecular clouds in which the study of low-mass star formation is not affected by disruptive phenomena that occur in other clouds that are actively forming low- and high-mass stars. The Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) offer a great possibility to survey these clouds in the near-infrared distributed along the Galaxy. In this work we present extinction maps of Southern Bok globules from the catalog of Bourke, Hyland & Robinson (1995) constructed from extincted background stars in the 2MASS JHK_s bands. The radial distribution of column density obtained from these maps are then modeled with different solutions that arise from several models of the gravitational collapse of molecular clouds cores. We adjust these profiles with Bonnor-Ebert spheres, negative-index polytropes and a simple power-law. This work will help constrain the early stages of the process of isolated star formation of low-mass stars.

Critical Slowing Down in Time-to-Extinction: An Example of Critical Phenomena in Ecology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gandhi, Amar; Levin, Simon; Orszag, Steven

1998-01-01

We study a model for two competing species that explicitly accounts for effects due to discreteness, stochasticity and spatial extension of populations. The two species are equally preferred by the environment and do better when surrounded by others of the same species. We observe that the final outcome depends on the initial densities (uniformly distributed in space) of the two species. The observed phase transition is a continuous one and key macroscopic quantities like the correlation length of clusters and the time-to-extinction diverge at a critical point. Away from the critical point, the dynamics can be described by a mean-field approximation. Close to the critical point, however, there is a crossover to power-law behavior because of the gross mismatch between the largest and smallest scales in the system. We have developed a theory based on surface effects, which is in good agreement with the observed behavior. The course-grained reaction-diffusion system obtained from the mean-field dynamics agrees well with the particle system.

Experimental Determination of Infrared Extinction Coefficients of Interplanetary Dust Particles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spann, J. F., Jr.; Abbas, M. M.

1998-01-01

This technique is based on irradiating a single isolated charged dust particle suspended in balance by an electric field, and measuring the scattered radiation as a function of angle. The observed scattered intensity profile at a specific wavelength obtained for a dust particle of known composition is compared with Mie theory calculations, and the variable parameters relating to the particle size and complex refractive index are adjusted for a best fit between the two profiles. This leads to a simultaneous determination of the particle radius, the complex refractive index, and the scattering and extinction coefficients. The results of these experiments can be utilized to examine the IRAS and DIRBE (Diffuse Infrared Background Experiment) infrared data sets in order to determine the dust particle physical characteristics and distributions by using infrared models and inversion techniques. This technique may also be employed for investigation of the rotational bursting phenomena whereby large size cosmic and interplanetary particles are believed to fragment into smaller dust particles.

Modeling local extinction in turbulent combustion using an embedding method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knaus, Robert; Pantano, Carlos

2012-11-01

Local regions of extinction in diffusion flames, called ``flame holes,'' can reduce the efficiency of combustion and increase the production of certain pollutants. At sufficiently high speeds, a flame may also be lifted from the rim of the burner to a downstream location that may be stable. These two phenomena share a common underlying mechanism of propagation related to edge-flame dynamics where chemistry and fluid mechanics are equally important. We present a formulation that describes the formation, propagation, and growth of flames holes on the stoichiometric surface using edge flame dynamics. The boundary separating the flame from the quenched region is modeled using a progress variable defined on the moving stoichiometric surface that is embedded in the three-dimensional space using an extension algorithm. This Cartesian problem is solved using a high-order finite-volume WENO method extended to this nonconservative problem. This algorithm can track the dynamics of flame holes in a turbulent reacting-shear layer and model flame liftoff without requiring full chemistry calculations.

Assessing the relationship between latent inhibition and the partial reinforcement extinction effect in autoshaping with rats.

PubMed

Boughner, Robert L; Papini, Mauricio R

2008-05-01

Results from a variety of independently run experiments suggest that latent inhibition (LI) and the partial reinforcement extinction effect (PREE) share underlying mechanisms. Experiment 1 tested this LI=PREE hypothesis by training the same set of rats in situations involving both nonreinforced preexposure to the conditioned stimulus (LI stage) and partial reinforcement training (PREE stage). Control groups were also included to assess both LI and the PREE. The results demonstrated a significant, but negative correlation between the size of the LI effect and that of the PREE. Experiment 2 extended this analysis to the effects on LI and the PREE of the anxiolytic benzodiazepine chlordiazepoxide (5 mg/kg, i.p.). Whereas chlordiazepoxide had no effect on LI, it delayed the onset of the PREE. No evidence in support of the LI=PREE hypothesis was obtained when these two learning phenomena were compared within the same experiment and under the same general conditions of training.

A model predicting the evolution of ice particle size spectra and radiative properties of cirrus clouds. Part 2: Dependence of absorption and extinction on ice crystal morphology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, David L.; Arnott, W. Patrick

1994-01-01

This study builds upon the microphysical modeling described in Part 1 by deriving formulations for the extinction and absorption coefficients in terms of the size distribution parameters predicted from the micro-physical model. The optical depth and single scatter albedo of a cirrus cloud can then be determined, which, along with the asymmetry parameter, are the input parameters needed by cloud radiation models. Through the use of anomalous diffraction theory, analytical expressions were developed describing the absorption and extinction coefficients and the single scatter albedo as functions of size distribution parameters, ice crystal shapes (or habits), wavelength, and refractive index. The extinction coefficient was formulated in terms of the projected area of the size distribution, while the absorption coefficient was formulated in terms of both the projected area and mass of the size distribution. These properties were formulated as explicit functions of ice crystal geometry and were not based on an 'effective radius.' Based on simulations of the second cirrus case study described in Part 1, absorption coefficients predicted in the near infrared for hexagonal columns and rosettes were up to 47% and 71% lower, respectively, than absorption coefficients predicted by using equivalent area spheres. This resulted in single scatter albedos in the near-infrared that were considerably greater than those predicted by the equivalent area sphere method. Reflectances in this region should therefore be underestimated using the equivalent area sphere approach. Cloud optical depth was found to depend on ice crystal habit. When the simulated cirrus cloud contained only bullet rosettes, the optical depth was 142% greater than when the cloud contained only hexagonal columns. This increase produced a doubling in cloud albedo. In the near-infrared (IR), the single scatter albedo also exhibited a significant dependence on ice crystal habit. More research is needed on the geometrical properties of ice crystals before the influence of ice crystal shape on cirrus radiative properties can be adequately understood. This study provides a way of coupling the radiative properties of absorption, extinction, and single scatter albedo to the microphysical properties of cirrus clouds. The dependence of extinction and absorption on ice crystal shape was not just due to geometrical differences between crystal types, but was also due to the effect these differences had on the evolution of ice particle size spectra. The ice particle growth model in Part 1 and the radiative properties treated here are based on analytical formulations, and thus represent a computationally efficient means of modeling the microphysical and radiative properties of cirrus clouds.

Marine extinction risk shaped by trait-environment interactions over 500 million years.

PubMed

Orzechowski, Emily A; Lockwood, Rowan; Byrnes, Jarrett E K; Anderson, Sean C; Finnegan, Seth; Finkel, Zoe V; Harnik, Paul G; Lindberg, David R; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Lotze, Heike K; McClain, Craig R; McGuire, Jenny L; O'Dea, Aaron; Pandolfi, John M; Simpson, Carl; Tittensor, Derek P

2015-10-01

Perhaps the most pressing issue in predicting biotic responses to present and future global change is understanding how environmental factors shape the relationship between ecological traits and extinction risk. The fossil record provides millions of years of insight into how extinction selectivity (i.e., differential extinction risk) is shaped by interactions between ecological traits and environmental conditions. Numerous paleontological studies have examined trait-based extinction selectivity; however, the extent to which these patterns are shaped by environmental conditions is poorly understood due to a lack of quantitative synthesis across studies. We conducted a meta-analysis of published studies on fossil marine bivalves and gastropods that span 458 million years to uncover how global environmental and geochemical changes covary with trait-based extinction selectivity. We focused on geographic range size and life habit (i.e., infaunal vs. epifaunal), two of the most important and commonly examined predictors of extinction selectivity. We used geochemical proxies related to global climate, as well as indicators of ocean acidification, to infer average global environmental conditions. Life-habit selectivity is weakly dependent on environmental conditions, with infaunal species relatively buffered from extinction during warmer climate states. In contrast, the odds of taxa with broad geographic ranges surviving an extinction (>2500 km for genera, >500 km for species) are on average three times greater than narrow-ranging taxa (estimate of odds ratio: 2.8, 95% confidence interval = 2.3-3.5), regardless of the prevailing global environmental conditions. The environmental independence of geographic range size extinction selectivity emphasizes the critical role of geographic range size in setting conservation priorities. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Regulation of Cytokine Networks in Hippocampal CA1 Differentiates Extinction from Those Required for the Maintenance of Contextual Fear Memory after Recall

PubMed Central

Scholz, Birger; Doidge, Amie N.; Barnes, Philip; Hall, Jeremy; Wilkinson, Lawrence S.; Thomas, Kerrie L.

2016-01-01

We investigated the distinctiveness of gene regulatory networks in CA1 associated with the extinction of contextual fear memory (CFM) after recall using Affymetrix GeneChip Rat Genome 230 2.0 Arrays. These data were compared to previously published retrieval and reconsolidation-attributed, and consolidation datasets. A stringent dual normalization and pareto-scaled orthogonal partial least-square discriminant multivariate analysis together with a jack-knifing-based cross-validation approach was used on all datasets to reduce false positives. Consolidation, retrieval and extinction were correlated with distinct patterns of gene expression 2 hours later. Extinction-related gene expression was most distinct from the profile accompanying consolidation. A highly specific feature was the discrete regulation of neuroimmunological gene expression associated with retrieval and extinction. Immunity–associated genes of the tyrosine kinase receptor TGFβ and PDGF, and TNF families’ characterized extinction. Cytokines and proinflammatory interleukins of the IL-1 and IL-6 families were enriched with the no-extinction retrieval condition. We used comparative genomics to predict transcription factor binding sites in proximal promoter regions of the retrieval-regulated genes. Retrieval that does not lead to extinction was associated with NF-κB-mediated gene expression. We confirmed differential NF-κBp65 expression, and activity in all of a representative sample of our candidate genes in the no-extinction condition. The differential regulation of cytokine networks after the acquisition and retrieval of CFM identifies the important contribution that neuroimmune signalling plays in normal hippocampal function. Further, targeting cytokine signalling upon retrieval offers a therapeutic strategy to promote extinction mechanisms in human disorders characterised by dysregulation of associative memory. PMID:27224427

Interstellar extinction curve variations towards the inner Milky Way: a challenge to observational cosmology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nataf, David M.; Gonzalez, Oscar A.; Casagrande, Luca; Zasowski, Gail; Wegg, Christopher; Wolf, Christian; Kunder, Andrea; Alonso-Garcia, Javier; Minniti, Dante; Rejkuba, Marina; Saito, Roberto K.; Valenti, Elena; Zoccali, Manuela; Poleski, Radosław; Pietrzyński, Grzegorz; Skowron, Jan; Soszyński, Igor; Szymański, Michał K.; Udalski, Andrzej; Ulaczyk, Krzysztof; Wyrzykowski, Łukasz

2016-03-01

We investigate interstellar extinction curve variations towards ˜4 deg2 of the inner Milky Way in VIJKs photometry from the OGLE-III (third phase of the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment) and VVV (VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea) surveys, with supporting evidence from diffuse interstellar bands and F435W, F625W photometry. We obtain independent measurements towards ˜2000 sightlines of AI, E(V - I), E(I - J) and E(J - Ks), with median precision and accuracy of 2 per cent. We find that the variations in the extinction ratios AI/E(V - I), E(I - J)/E(V - I) and E(J - Ks)/E(V - I) are large (exceeding 20 per cent), significant and positively correlated, as expected. However, both the mean values and the trends in these extinction ratios are drastically shifted from the predictions of Cardelli and Fitzpatrick, regardless of how RV is varied. Furthermore, we demonstrate that variations in the shape of the extinction curve have at least two degrees of freedom, and not one (e.g. RV), which we confirm with a principal component analysis. We derive a median value of = 13.44, which is ˜60 per cent higher than the `standard' value. We show that the Wesenheit magnitude WI = I - 1.61(I - J) is relatively impervious to extinction curve variations. Given that these extinction curves are linchpins of observational cosmology, and that it is generally assumed that RV variations correctly capture variations in the extinction curve, we argue that systematic errors in the distance ladder from studies of Type Ia supernovae and Cepheids may have been underestimated. Moreover, the reddening maps from the Planck experiment are shown to systematically overestimate dust extinction by ˜100 per cent and lack sensitivity to extinction curve variations.

Predicting Rift Valley Fever Inter-epidemic Activities and Outbreak Patterns: Insights from a Stochastic Host-Vector Model

PubMed Central

Pedro, Sansao A.; Abelman, Shirley; Tonnang, Henri E. Z.

2016-01-01

Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks are recurrent, occurring at irregular intervals of up to 15 years at least in East Africa. Between outbreaks disease inter-epidemic activities exist and occur at low levels and are maintained by female Aedes mcintoshi mosquitoes which transmit the virus to their eggs leading to disease persistence during unfavourable seasons. Here we formulate and analyse a full stochastic host-vector model with two routes of transmission: vertical and horizontal. By applying branching process theory we establish novel relationships between the basic reproduction number, R0, vertical transmission and the invasion and extinction probabilities. Optimum climatic conditions and presence of mosquitoes have not fully explained the irregular oscillatory behaviour of RVF outbreaks. Using our model without seasonality and applying van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how outbreaks multi-year periodicity varies with the vertical transmission. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 1 to 10 years which essentially depends on the efficiency of vertical transmission. Our predictions are then compared to temporal patterns of disease outbreaks in Tanzania, Kenya and South Africa. Our analyses show that interaction between nonlinearity, stochasticity and vertical transmission provides a simple but plausible explanation for the irregular oscillatory nature of RVF outbreaks. Therefore, we argue that while rainfall might be the major determinant for the onset and switch-off of an outbreak, the occurrence of a particular outbreak is also a result of a build up phenomena that is correlated to vertical transmission efficiency. PMID:28002417

Predicting Rift Valley Fever Inter-epidemic Activities and Outbreak Patterns: Insights from a Stochastic Host-Vector Model.

PubMed

Pedro, Sansao A; Abelman, Shirley; Tonnang, Henri E Z

2016-12-01

Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks are recurrent, occurring at irregular intervals of up to 15 years at least in East Africa. Between outbreaks disease inter-epidemic activities exist and occur at low levels and are maintained by female Aedes mcintoshi mosquitoes which transmit the virus to their eggs leading to disease persistence during unfavourable seasons. Here we formulate and analyse a full stochastic host-vector model with two routes of transmission: vertical and horizontal. By applying branching process theory we establish novel relationships between the basic reproduction number, R0, vertical transmission and the invasion and extinction probabilities. Optimum climatic conditions and presence of mosquitoes have not fully explained the irregular oscillatory behaviour of RVF outbreaks. Using our model without seasonality and applying van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how outbreaks multi-year periodicity varies with the vertical transmission. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 1 to 10 years which essentially depends on the efficiency of vertical transmission. Our predictions are then compared to temporal patterns of disease outbreaks in Tanzania, Kenya and South Africa. Our analyses show that interaction between nonlinearity, stochasticity and vertical transmission provides a simple but plausible explanation for the irregular oscillatory nature of RVF outbreaks. Therefore, we argue that while rainfall might be the major determinant for the onset and switch-off of an outbreak, the occurrence of a particular outbreak is also a result of a build up phenomena that is correlated to vertical transmission efficiency.

Flame Dynamics and Chemistry in LRE Combustion Instability

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-22

simulation conditions are as follows: the upper boundary consists of a mixture of DME, oxygen and nitrogen at a fixed temperature of 300 K, while the lower...Fig. 11 a. However, the reduction effect of increased oxygen con- centration on the cool flame extinction temperature is again over- predicted by... temperature chemistry and extends the hysteresis between ignition and Fig. 11. Ignition and extinction temperatures at various strain rates and oxygen

Relationship of extinction coefficient, air pollution, and meteorological parameters in an urban area during 2007 to 2009.

PubMed

Sabetghadam, Samaneh; Ahmadi-Givi, Farhang

2014-01-01

Light extinction, which is the extent of attenuation of light signal for every distance traveled by light in the absence of special weather conditions (e.g., fog and rain), can be expressed as the sum of scattering and absorption effects of aerosols. In this paper, diurnal and seasonal variations of the extinction coefficient are investigated for the urban areas of Tehran from 2007 to 2009. Cases of visibility impairment that were concurrent with reports of fog, mist, precipitation, or relative humidity above 90% are filtered. The mean value and standard deviation of daily extinction are 0.49 and 0.39 km(-1), respectively. The average is much higher than that in many other large cities in the world, indicating the rather poor air quality over Tehran. The extinction coefficient shows obvious diurnal variations in each season, with a peak in the morning that is more pronounced in the wintertime. Also, there is a very slight increasing trend in the annual variations of atmospheric extinction coefficient, which suggests that air quality has regressed since 2007. The horizontal extinction coefficient decreased from January to July in each year and then increased between July and December, with the maximum value in the winter. Diurnal variation of extinction is often associated with small values for low relative humidity (RH), but increases significantly at higher RH. Annual correlation analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the extinction coefficient and RH, CO, PM10, SO2, and NO2 concentration, while negative correlation exists between the extinction and T, WS, and O3, implying their unfavorable impact on extinction variation. The extinction budget was derived from multiple regression equations using the regression coefficients. On average, 44% of the extinction is from suspended particles, 3% is from air molecules, about 5% is from NO2 absorption, 0.35% is from RH, and approximately 48% is unaccounted for, which may represent errors in the data as well as contribution of other atmospheric constituents omitted from the analysis. Stronger regression equation is achieved in the summer, meaning that the extinction is more predictable in this season using pollutant concentrations.

Methanol Droplet Extinction in Carbon-Dioxide-Enriched Environments in Microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hicks, Michael C.; Nayagam, Vedha; Williams, Forman A.

2010-01-01

Diffusive extinction of methanol droplets with initial diameters between 1.25 mm and 1.72 mm, burning in a quiescent microgravity environment at one atmosphere pressure, was obtained experimentally for varying levels of ambient carbon-dioxide concentrations with a fixed oxygen concentration of 21% and a balance of nitrogen. These experiments serve as precursors to those which are beginning to be performed on the International Space Station and are motivated by the need to understand the effectiveness of carbon-dioxide as a fire suppressant in low-gravity environments. In these experiments, the flame standoff distance, droplet diameter, and flame radiation are measured as functions of time. The results show that the droplet extinction diameter depends on both the initial droplet diameter and the ambient concentration of carbon dioxide. Increasing the initial droplet diameter leads to an increased extinction diameter, while increasing the carbon-dioxide concentration leads to a slight decrease in the extinction diameter. These results are interpreted using a critical Damk hler number for extinction as predicted by an earlier theory, which is extended here to be applicable in the presence of effects of heat conduction along the droplet support fibers and of the volume occupied by the support beads

Parasite biodiversity faces extinction and redistribution in a changing climate

PubMed Central

Carlson, Colin J.; Burgio, Kevin R.; Dougherty, Eric R.; Phillips, Anna J.; Bueno, Veronica M.; Clements, Christopher F.; Castaldo, Giovanni; Dallas, Tad A.; Cizauskas, Carrie A.; Cumming, Graeme S.; Doña, Jorge; Harris, Nyeema C.; Jovani, Roger; Mironov, Sergey; Muellerklein, Oliver C.; Proctor, Heather C.; Getz, Wayne M.

2017-01-01

Climate change is a well-documented driver of both wildlife extinction and disease emergence, but the negative impacts of climate change on parasite diversity are undocumented. We compiled the most comprehensive spatially explicit data set available for parasites, projected range shifts in a changing climate, and estimated extinction rates for eight major parasite clades. On the basis of 53,133 occurrences capturing the geographic ranges of 457 parasite species, conservative model projections suggest that 5 to 10% of these species are committed to extinction by 2070 from climate-driven habitat loss alone. We find no evidence that parasites with zoonotic potential have a significantly higher potential to gain range in a changing climate, but we do find that ectoparasites (especially ticks) fare disproportionately worse than endoparasites. Accounting for host-driven coextinctions, models predict that up to 30% of parasitic worms are committed to extinction, driven by a combination of direct and indirect pressures. Despite high local extinction rates, parasite richness could still increase by an order of magnitude in some places, because species successfully tracking climate change invade temperate ecosystems and replace native species with unpredictable ecological consequences. PMID:28913417

Extinction risks of Amazonian plant species.

PubMed

Feeley, Kenneth J; Silman, Miles R

2009-07-28

Estimates of the number, and preferably the identity, of species that will be threatened by land-use change and habitat loss are an invaluable tool for setting conservation priorities. Here, we use collections data and ecoregion maps to generate spatially explicit distributions for more than 40,000 vascular plant species from the Amazon basin (representing more than 80% of the estimated Amazonian plant diversity). Using the distribution maps, we then estimate the rates of habitat loss and associated extinction probabilities due to land-use changes as modeled under 2 disturbance scenarios. We predict that by 2050, human land-use practices will have reduced the habitat available to Amazonian plant species by approximately 12-24%, resulting in 5-9% of species becoming "committed to extinction," significantly fewer than other recent estimates. Contrary to previous studies, we find that the primary determinant of habitat loss and extinction risk is not the size of a species' range, but rather its location. The resulting extinction risk estimates are a valuable conservation tool because they indicate not only the total percentage of Amazonian plant species threatened with extinction but also the degree to which individual species and habitats will be affected by current and future land-use changes.

Species Turnover through Time: Colonization and Extinction Dynamics across Metacommunities.

PubMed

Nuvoloni, Felipe Micali; Feres, Reinaldo José Fazzio; Gilbert, Benjamin

2016-06-01

Island biogeography and metacommunity theory often use equilibrium assumptions to predict local diversity, yet nonequilibrium dynamics are common in nature. In nonequilibrium communities, local diversity fluctuates through time as the relative importance of colonization and extinction change. Here, we test the prevalence and causes of nonequilibrium dynamics in metacommunities of mites associated with rubber trees distributed over large spatial (>1,000 km) and temporal (>30-60 generations) scales in Brazil. We measured colonization and extinction rates to test species turnover and nonequilibrium dynamics over a growing season. Mite metacommunities exhibited nonequilibrium dynamics for most months of the year, and these dynamics tracked climatic conditions. Monthly shifts in temperature of more than 1°C resulted in nonequilibrium dynamics, as did mean temperatures outside of two critical ranges. Nonequilibrium dynamics were caused by a change in colonization with temperature change and changes in both colonization and extinction with absolute temperature. Species turnover showed different trends; high relative humidity increased both colonization and extinction rates, increasing turnover but not nonequilibrium dynamics. Our study illustrates that testing nonequilibrium dynamics can provide new insights into the drivers of colonization, extinction, and diversity fluctuations in metacommunities.

The roles of ecological first principles and evolutionary contingency in unraveling ecosystem response and reconstruction during the Permian-Triassic transition.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roopnarine, P. D.; Weik, A.; Dineen, A.; Angielczyk, K.

2016-12-01

The Permian-Triassic mass extinction (PTME) is the most severe mass extinction recorded in Earth's history. Effects on the biosphere were complicated and often contradictory, e.g. selective species extinctions and exceptional species survival; prolonged miniaturization of some Early Triassic clades but rapid increases of size in others; and both simplified and complex trophic structures in various E. Triassic ecosystems. Here we present the results of a new generalized model of paleocommunity global stability (number of species capable of persistent coexistence in the absence of external perturbation), suggesting that community dynamics in response to species extinction, and the addition of new species in the aftermath of the PTME, is best understood as a complex outcome of predictable community dynamics and contingent, unpredictable evolutionary pathways. We applied the model to the best known PTME transitional terrestrial ecosystem, the Karoo Basin of South Africa. The model verifies previous claims that global stability scales negatively with increasing species richness and the strength of interspecific interactions. We also show that global stability scales negatively with intrinsic population growth rates. Taxon-rich Permian communities could therefore have persisted only under a restricted range of those parameters. Communities during three phases of the PTME, however, exhibited greater global stability than would be predicted from the pre-PTME communities. Those communities could therefore have maintained relative stabilities under a broader range of parameters, implying that species could have adapted by modifying life history and ecological traits with lesser negative consequences to community stability. The earliest post-PTME community with increased species richness, however, was less stable than would be predicted from pre-PTME communities. In both the extinction and aftermath communities, nonlinear deviations from the general scaling of stability result from structural features unique to those communities, perhaps limiting our ability to forecast biospheric responses to extreme perturbations.

A model of onshore-offshore change in faunal diversity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1991-01-01

Onshore-offshore patterns of faunal change occurred at many taxonomic scales during the Paleozoic Era, ranging from replacement of the Cambrian evolutionary fauna by the Paleozoic fauna to the environmental expansion of many orders and classes. A simple mathematical model is constructed to investigate such change. The environmental gradient across the marine shelf-slope is treated as a linear array of discrete habitats, each of which holds a set number of species, as observed in the fossil record. During any interval of time, some portion of the species in each habitat becomes extinct by background processes, with rates of extinction varying among both clades and habitats, as also observed in the record. After extinction, species are replaced from within the habitat and from immediately adjacent habitats, with proportions dependent on surviving species. This model leads to the prediction that extinction-resistant clades will always diversify at the expense of extinction-prone clades. But if extinction intensity is highest in nearshore habitats, extinction-resistant clades will expand preferentially in the onshore direction, build up diversity there, and then diversify outward toward the offshore. Thus, onshore-offshore patterns of diversification may be the expectation for faunal change quite independently of whether or not clades originate onshore. When the model is parameterized for Paleozoic trilobites and brachiopods, numerical solutions exhibit both a pattern of faunal change and a time span for diversification similar to that seen in the fossil record. They also generate structure similar to that seen in global diversification, including logistic patterns of growth, declining origination but constant extinction within clades through time, and declining overall extinction across clades through time.

Source apportionment of visual impairment during the California regional PM 10/PM 2.5 air quality study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jianjun; Ying, Qi; Kleeman, Michael J.

2009-12-01

Gases and particulate matter predictions from the UCD/CIT air quality model were used in a visibility model to predict source contributions to visual impairment in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV), the southern portion of California's Central Valley, during December 2000 and January 2001. Within the SJV, daytime (0800-1700 PST) light extinction was dominated by scattering associated with airborne particles. Measured daytime particle scattering coefficients were compared to predicted values at approximately 40 locations across the SJV after correction for the increased temperature and decreased relative humidity produced by "smart heaters" placed upstream of nephelometers. Mean fractional bias and mean fractional error were -0.22 and 0.65, respectively, indicating reasonable agreement between model predictions and measurements. Particulate water, nitrate, organic matter, and ammonium were the major particulate species contributing to light scattering in the SJV. Daytime light extinction in the SJV averaged between December 25, 2000 and January 7, 2001 was mainly associated with animal ammonia sources (28%), diesel engines (18%), catalyst gasoline engines (9%), other anthropogenic sources (9%), and wood smoke (7%) with initial and boundary conditions accounting for 13%. The source apportionment results from this study apply to wintertime conditions when airborne particulate matter concentrations are typically at their annual maximum. Further study would be required to quantify source contributions to light extinction in other seasons.

Prefrontal single-unit firing associated with deficient extinction in mice

PubMed Central

Fitzgerald, Paul J; Whittle, Nigel; Flynn, Shaun M; Graybeal, Carolyn; Pinard, Courtney; Gunduz-Cinar, Ozge; Kravitz, Alexxai; Singewald, Nicolas; Holmes, Andrew

2014-01-01

The neural circuitry mediating fear extinction has been increasingly well studied and delineated. The rodent infralimbic subregion (IL) of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) has been found to promote extinction, whereas the prelimbic cortex (PL) demonstrates an opposing, pro-fear, function. Studies employing in vivo electrophysiological recordings have observed that while increased IL single-unit firing and bursting predicts robust extinction retrieval, increased PL firing can correlate with sustained fear and poor extinction. These relationships between single-unit firing and extinction do not hold under all experimental conditions, however. In the current study, we further investigated the relationship between vmPFC and PL single-unit firing and extinction using inbred mouse models of intact (C57BL/6J, B6) and deficient (129S1/SvImJ, S1) extinction strains. Simultaneous single-unit recordings were made in the PL and vmPFC (encompassing IL) as B6 and S1 mice performed extinction training and retrieval. Impaired extinction retrieval in S1 mice was associated with elevated PL single-unit firing, as compared to firing in extinguishing B6 mice, consistent with the hypothesized pro-fear contribution of PL. Analysis of local field potentials also revealed significantly higher gamma power in the PL of Sthan B6 mice during extinction training and retrieval. In the vmPFC, impaired extinction in S1 mice was also associated with exaggerated single-unit firing, relative to B6 mice. This is in apparent contradiction to evidence that IL activity promotes extinction, but could reflect a (failed) compensatory effort by the vmPFC to mitigate fear-promoting activity in other regions, such as the PL or amygdala. In support of this hypothesis, augmenting IL activity via direct infusion of the GABAA receptor antagonist picrotoxin rescued impaired extinction retrieval in S1 mice. Chronic fluoxetine treatment produced modest reductions in fear during extinction retrieval and increased the number of Zif268-labeled cells in layer II of IL, but failed to increase vmPFC single-unit firing. Collectively, these findings further support the important contribution these cortical regions play in determining the balance between robust extinction on the one hand, and sustained fear on the other. Elucidating the precise nature of these roles could help inform understanding of the pathophysiology of fear-related anxiety disorders. PMID:24231425

Trait-based diversification shifts reflect differential extinction among fossil taxa

PubMed Central

Wagner, Peter J.; Estabrook, George F.

2014-01-01

Evolution provides many cases of apparent shifts in diversification associated with particular anatomical traits. Three general models connect these patterns to anatomical evolution: (i) elevated net extinction of taxa bearing particular traits, (ii) elevated net speciation of taxa bearing particular traits, and (iii) elevated evolvability expanding the range of anatomies available to some species. Trait-based diversification shifts predict elevated hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility (i.e., primitive→derived→highly derived sequences) among pairs of anatomical characters. The three specific models further predict (i) early loss of diversity for taxa retaining primitive conditions (elevated net extinction), (ii) increased diversification among later members of a clade (elevated net speciation), and (iii) increased disparity among later members in a clade (elevated evolvability). Analyses of 319 anatomical and stratigraphic datasets for fossil species and genera show that hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility exceeds the expectations of trait-independent diversification in the vast majority of cases, which was expected if trait-dependent diversification shifts are common. Excess hierarchical stratigraphic compatibility correlates with early loss of diversity for groups retaining primitive conditions rather than delayed bursts of diversity or disparity across entire clades. Cambrian clades (predominantly trilobites) alone fit null expectations well. However, it is not clear whether evolution was unusual among Cambrian taxa or only early trilobites. At least among post-Cambrian taxa, these results implicate models, such as competition and extinction selectivity/resistance, as major drivers of trait-based diversification shifts at the species and genus levels while contradicting the predictions of elevated net speciation and elevated evolvability models. PMID:25331898

Time Resolved X-Ray Spectral Analysis of Class II YSOs in NGC 2264 During Optical Dips and Bursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guarcello, Mario Giuseppe; Flaccomio, Ettore; Micela, Giuseppina; Argiroffi, Costanza; Venuti, Laura

2016-07-01

Pre-Main Sequence stars are variable sources. The main mechanisms responsible for their variability are variable extinction, unsteady accretion, and rotational modulation of both hot and dark photospheric spots and X-ray active regions. In stars with disks this variability is thus related to the morphology of the inner circumstellar region (<0.1 AU) and that of photosphere and corona, all impossible to be spatially resolved with present day techniques. This has been the main motivations of the Coordinated Synoptic Investigation of NGC2264, a set of simultaneous observations of NGC2264 with 15 different telescopes.We analyze the X-ray spectral properties of stars with disks extracted during optical bursts and dips in order to unveil the nature of these phenomena. Stars are analyzed in two different samples. In stars with variable extinction a simultaneous increase of optical extinction and X-ray absorption is searched during the optical dips; in stars with accretion bursts we search for soft X-ray emission and increasing X-ray absorption during the bursts. In 9/33 stars with variable extinction we observe simultaneous increase of X-ray absorption and optical extinction. In seven dips it is possible to calculate the NH/AV ratio in order to infer the composition of the obscuring material. In 5/27 stars with optical accretion bursts, we observe soft X-ray emission during the bursts that we associate to the emission of accreting gas. It is not surprising that these properties are not observed in all the stars with dips and bursts since favorable geometric configurations are required. The observed variable absorption during the dips is mainly due to dust-free material in accretion streams. In stars with accretion bursts we observe in average a larger soft X-ray spectral component not observed in non accreting stars. This indicates that this soft X-ray emission arises from the accretion shocks.

Disorientation, confabulation, and extinction capacity: clues on how the brain creates reality.

PubMed

Nahum, Louis; Ptak, Radek; Leemann, Béatrice; Schnider, Armin

2009-06-01

Disorientation and confabulation often have a common course, independent of amnesia. Behaviorally spontaneous confabulation is the form in which patients act according to a false concept of reality; they fail to abandon action plans (anticipations) that do not pertain to the present situation. This continued enactment of previously valid but meanwhile invalidated anticipations can be conceived as deficient extinction capacity, that is, failure to integrate negative prediction errors into behavior. In this study, we explored whether disorientation and behaviorally spontaneous confabulation are associated with extinction failure. Twenty-five patients hospitalized for neurorehabilitation after first-ever brain injury who either had severe amnesia (n = 17), an orbitofrontal lesion (n = 14), or both (n = 6) were tested regarding disorientation (questionnaire) and performed an experimental task of association learning and extinction. Five patients were also classified as behaviorally spontaneous confabulators. Extinction capacity explained 66% of the variance of orientation in the whole group of patients (amnesics only, 56%; orbitofrontal group only, 90%), whereas association learning explained only 17% of the variance in the whole group (amnesics only, 7%; orbitofrontal group only, 16%). Also, extinction capacity, but not association learning, significantly distinguished between behaviorally spontaneous confabulators and all other subjects. Disorientation and behaviorally spontaneous confabulation are strongly and specifically associated with a failure of extinction, the ability to learn that previously appropriate anticipations no longer apply. Rather than invoking high-level monitoring processes, the human brain seems to make use of an ancient biological faculty-extinction-to keep thought and behavior in phase with reality.

Forward modelling requires intention recognition and non-impoverished predictions.

PubMed

de Ruiter, Jan P; Cummins, Chris

2013-08-01

We encourage Pickering & Garrod (P&G) to implement this promising theory in a computational model. The proposed theory crucially relies on having an efficient and reliable mechanism for early intention recognition. Furthermore, the generation of impoverished predictions is incompatible with a number of key phenomena that motivated P&G's theory. Explaining these phenomena requires fully specified perceptual predictions in both comprehension and production.

Orbitofrontal Cortical Neurons Encode Expectation-Driven Initiation of Reward-Seeking

PubMed Central

Aston-Jones, Gary

2014-01-01

Adaptive execution and inhibition of behavior are guided by the activity of neuronal populations across multiple frontal cortical areas. The rodent medial prefrontal cortex has been well studied with respect to these behaviors, influencing behavioral execution/inhibition based on context. Other frontal regions, in particular the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), are critical in directing behavior to obtain rewards, but the relationship between OFC neuronal activity and response execution or inhibition has been poorly characterized. In particular, little is known about OFC with respect to extinction learning, an important example of context-guided response inhibition. Here, we recorded the activity of OFC neurons while rats performed a discriminative-stimulus (DS)-driven sucrose-seeking task followed by multiple days of extinction of the DS. OFC neuronal activity was maximally responsive (1) to reward-predicting stimuli (RS) that triggered a lever press (i.e., lever-response initiation) and (2) during reward-well approach in pursuit of sucrose (i.e., well-response initiation). RS presentation that was not followed by a lever press or RS presentation during extinction produced weak activation, as did nonrewarded stimulus (NS) presentation regardless of response (press or withhold) or session (DS-sucrose or extinction). Activity related to nonrewarded well entry was minor, and activity was significantly inhibited during reward consumption. Finally, OFC neuronal activity switched selectivity to track rewarded behaviors when the RS/NS contingencies were reversed. Thus, rather than signaling variables related to extinction or response inhibition, activity in OFC was strongest at the initiation of multiple components of reward-seeking behavior, most prominently when valid reward-predicting cues drove these behaviors. PMID:25080585

Probabilistic measures of persistence and extinction in measles (meta)populations.

PubMed

Gunning, Christian E; Wearing, Helen J

2013-08-01

Persistence and extinction are fundamental processes in ecological systems that are difficult to accurately measure due to stochasticity and incomplete observation. Moreover, these processes operate on multiple scales, from individual populations to metapopulations. Here, we examine an extensive new data set of measles case reports and associated demographics in pre-vaccine era US cities, alongside a classic England & Wales data set. We first infer the per-population quasi-continuous distribution of log incidence. We then use stochastic, spatially implicit metapopulation models to explore the frequency of rescue events and apparent extinctions. We show that, unlike critical community size, the inferred distributions account for observational processes, allowing direct comparisons between metapopulations. The inferred distributions scale with population size. We use these scalings to estimate extinction boundary probabilities. We compare these predictions with measurements in individual populations and random aggregates of populations, highlighting the importance of medium-sized populations in metapopulation persistence. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Macroecological analyses support an overkill scenario for late Pleistocene extinctions.

PubMed

Diniz-Filho, J A F

2004-08-01

The extinction of megafauna at the end of Pleistocene has been traditionally explained by environmental changes or overexploitation by human hunting (overkill). Despite difficulties in choosing between these alternative (and not mutually exclusive) scenarios, the plausibility of the overkill hypothesis can be established by ecological models of predator-prey interactions. In this paper, I have developed a macroecological model for the overkill hypothesis, in which prey population dynamic parameters, including abundance, geographic extent, and food supply for hunters, were derived from empirical allometric relationships with body mass. The last output correctly predicts the final destiny (survival or extinction) for 73% of the species considered, a value only slightly smaller than those obtained by more complex models based on detailed archaeological and ecological data for each species. This illustrates the high selectivity of Pleistocene extinction in relation to body mass and confers more plausibility on the overkill scenario.

Modeling Selection and Extinction Mechanisms of Biological Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amirjanov, Adil

In this paper, the behavior of a genetic algorithm is modeled to enhance its applicability as a modeling tool of biological systems. A new description model for selection mechanism is introduced which operates on a portion of individuals of population. The extinction and recolonization mechanism is modeled, and solving the dynamics analytically shows that the genetic drift in the population with extinction/recolonization is doubled. The mathematical analysis of the interaction between selection and extinction/recolonization processes is carried out to assess the dynamics of motion of the macroscopic statistical properties of population. Computer simulations confirm that the theoretical predictions of described models are in good approximations. A mathematical model of GA dynamics was also examined, which describes the anti-predator vigilance in an animal group with respect to a known analytical solution of the problem, and showed a good agreement between them to find the evolutionarily stable strategies.

Extinction phase transitions in a model of ecological and evolutionary dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barghathi, Hatem; Tackkett, Skye; Vojta, Thomas

2017-07-01

We study the non-equilibrium phase transition between survival and extinction of spatially extended biological populations using an agent-based model. We especially focus on the effects of global temporal fluctuations of the environmental conditions, i.e., temporal disorder. Using large-scale Monte-Carlo simulations of up to 3 × 107 organisms and 105 generations, we find the extinction transition in time-independent environments to be in the well-known directed percolation universality class. In contrast, temporal disorder leads to a highly unusual extinction transition characterized by logarithmically slow population decay and enormous fluctuations even for large populations. The simulations provide strong evidence for this transition to be of exotic infinite-noise type, as recently predicted by a renormalization group theory. The transition is accompanied by temporal Griffiths phases featuring a power-law dependence of the life time on the population size.

Effects of chemogenetic excitation or inhibition of the ventrolateral periaqueductal gray on the acquisition and extinction of Pavlovian fear conditioning.

PubMed

Arico, Carolyn; Bagley, Elena E; Carrive, Pascal; Assareh, Neda; McNally, Gavan P

2017-10-01

The midbrain periaqueductal gray (PAG) has been implicated in the generation and transmission of a prediction error signal that instructs amygdala-based fear and extinction learning. However, the PAG also plays a key role in the expression of conditioned fear responses. The evidence for a role of the PAG in fear learning and extinction learning has been obtained almost exclusively using PAG-dependent fear responses. It is less clear whether the PAG regulates fear learning when other measures of learned fear are used. Here we combined a chemogenetic approach, permitting excitation or inhibition of neurons in the ventrolateral PAG (VLPAG), with conditioned suppression as the measure of learned fear to assess the role of VLPAG in the acquisition and extinction of fear learning. We show that chemogenetic excitation of VLPAG (with some encroachment on lateral PAG [LPAG]) impairs acquisition of fear and, conversely, chemogenetic inhibition impairs extinction of fear. These effects on fear and extinction learning were specific to the combination of DREADD expression and injection of CNO because they were observed relative to both eYFP controls injected with CNO as well as DREADD expressing controls injected with vehicle. Taken together, these results show that activity of L/VLPAG neurons regulates both the acquisition and extinction of Pavlovian fear learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Marine planktonic microbes survived climatic instabilities in the past

PubMed Central

Cermeño, Pedro

2012-01-01

In the geological past, changes in climate and tectonic activity are thought to have spurred the tempo of evolutionary change among major taxonomic groups of plants and animals. However, the extent to which these historical contingencies increased the risk of extinction of microbial plankton species remains largely unknown. Here, I analyse fossil records of marine planktonic diatoms and calcareous nannoplankton over the past 65 million years from the world oceans and show that the probability of species' extinction is not correlated with secular changes in climatic instability. Further supporting these results, analyses of genera survivorship curves based on fossil data concurred with the predictions of a birth–death model that simulates the extinction of genera through time assuming stochastically constant rates of speciation and extinction. However, my results also show that these marine microbes responded to exceptional climatic contingencies in a manner that appears to have promoted net diversification. These results highlight the ability of marine planktonic microbes to survive climatic instabilities in the geological past, and point to different mechanisms underlying the processes of speciation and extinction in these micro-organisms. PMID:21775329

Stress, trauma and PTSD: translational insights into the core synaptic circuitry and its modulation.

PubMed

Bennett, Maxwell R; Hatton, Sean N; Lagopoulos, Jim

2016-06-01

Evidence is considered as to whether behavioral criteria for diagnosis of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are applicable to that of traumatized animals and whether the phenomena of acquisition, extinction and reactivation of fear behavior in animals are also successfully applicable to humans. This evidence suggests an affirmative answer in both cases. Furthermore, the deficits in gray matter found in PTSD, determined with magnetic resonance imaging, are also observed in traumatized animals, lending neuropsychological support to the use of animals to probe what has gone awry in PTSD. Such animal experiments indicate that the core synaptic circuitry mediating behavior following trauma consists of the amygdala, ventral-medial prefrontal cortex and hippocampus, all of which are modulated by the basal ganglia. It is not clear if this is the case in PTSD as the observations using fMRI are equivocal and open to technical objections. Nevertheless, the effects of the basal ganglia in controlling glutamatergic synaptic transmission through dopaminergic and serotonergic synaptic mechanisms in the core synaptic circuitry provides a ready explanation for why modifying these mechanisms delays extinction in animal models and predisposes towards PTSD. In addition, changes of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) in the core synaptic circuitry have significant effects on acquisition and extinction in animal experiments with single nucleotide polymorphisms in the BDNF gene predisposing to PTSD.

The end-Triassic mass extinction: A new correlation between extinction events and δ13C fluctuations from a Triassic-Jurassic peritidal succession in western Sicily

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todaro, Simona; Rigo, Manuel; Randazzo, Vincenzo; Di Stefano, Pietro

2018-06-01

A new δ13Ccarb curve was obtained from an expanded peritidal succession in western Sicily and was used to investigate the relationships between isotopic signatures and biological events on carbonate platforms across the Triassic-Jurassic boundary (TJB). The resulting curve shows two main negative carbon isotopic excursions (CIEs) that fit well with the "Initial" and "Main" CIEs that are recognized worldwide and linked to the End-Triassic Extinction (ETE). In the studied section, the first negative CIE marks the disappearance of the large megalodontids, which were replaced by small and thin-shelled specimens, while the "Main" CIE corresponds to the last occurrence (LO) of the megalodontids and, approximately 50 m upsection, to the total demise of the Rhaetian benthic foraminifer community. Upward, the carbon curve shows a positive trend (ca. +1‰) and a gradual recovery of the benthic communities after an approximately 10 m-thick barren interval populated only by the problematic alga Thaumatoporella parvovesiculifera. A comparison between the Mt. Sparagio δ13Ccarb curve and other coeval Ccarb and Corg curves from carbonate platform, ramp and deep basin successions indicates similar isotopic trends; however, the diverse magnitudes and responses of benthic communities confirm that the carbon cycle perturbations have been globally significant, and were influenced by external forces such as CAMP volcanism. The multiphase nature of the extinction pulses could have been caused by local environmental changes related to transgression/regression phenomena. Overall, this study adds new data and a new timing to the effect of the acidification process on carbon productivity and benthic communities in different environments across the TJB.

Geyser Decline and Extinction in New Zealand—Energy Development Impacts and Implications for Environmental Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrick, Kenneth A.

2007-06-01

Geysers are rare natural phenomena that represent increasingly important recreation, economic, and scientific resources. The features of geyser basins, including hot springs, mud pots, and fumaroles, are easily damaged by human development. In New Zealand, the extinction of more than 100 geysers provides important lessons for the environmental management of the world’s remaining geyser basins. The impacts on New Zealand’s geysers are described in sequential “phases,” including the following: the first use of geothermal resources by the indigenous people—the Maori; early European-style tourism and spa development; streamside geyser decline caused by river level modification at the Spa geyser basin; multiple geyser basin extinctions caused by industrial-scale geothermal well withdrawal at Wairakei; the drowning of geysers at Orakeikorako after the filling of a hydroelectric reservoir; and geyser decline caused by geothermal well heating systems in Rotorua City. The crisis in Rotorua prompted preservation of the few remaining geysers at Whakarewarewa—the last major geyser basin in New Zealand. The New Zealand government ordered the geothermal wells within 1.5 km of Pohutu Geyser, Whakarewarewa, to be closed, which was a locally controversial measure. The well closure program resulted in a partial recovery of the Rotorua geothermal reservoir, but no extinct geysers recovered. The implications of recent geothermal computer modeling and future planning are discussed. The New Zealand case suggests that the protection of geysers requires strong regulations that prevent incompatible development at the outset, a prescription that is especially relevant for the future management of the geothermal fields adjacent to the geyser basins of Yellowstone National Park, U.S.A.

Variation in crown light utilization characteristics among tropical canopy trees.

PubMed

Kitajima, Kaoru; Mulkey, Stephen S; Wright, S Joseph

2005-02-01

Light extinction through crowns of canopy trees determines light availability at lower levels within forests. The goal of this paper is the exploration of foliage distribution and light extinction in crowns of five canopy tree species in relation to their shoot architecture, leaf traits (mean leaf angle, life span, photosynthetic characteristics) and successional status (from pioneers to persistent). Light extinction was examined at three hierarchical levels of foliage organization, the whole crown, the outermost canopy and the individual shoots, in a tropical moist forest with direct canopy access with a tower crane. Photon flux density and cumulative leaf area index (LAI) were measured at intervals of 0.25-1 m along multiple vertical transects through three to five mature tree crowns of each species to estimate light extinction coefficients (K). Cecropia longipes, a pioneer species with the shortest leaf life span, had crown LAI <0.5. Among the remaining four species, crown LAI ranged from 2 to 8, and species with orthotropic terminal shoots exhibited lower light extinction coefficients (0.35) than those with plagiotropic shoots (0.53-0.80). Within each type, later successional species exhibited greater maximum LAI and total light extinction. A dense layer of leaves at the outermost crown of a late successional species resulted in an average light extinction of 61% within 0.5 m from the surface. In late successional species, leaf position within individual shoots does not predict the light availability at the individual leaf surface, which may explain their slow decline of photosynthetic capacity with leaf age and weak differentiation of sun and shade leaves. Later-successional tree crowns, especially those with orthotropic branches, exhibit lower light extinction coefficients, but greater total LAI and total light extinction, which contribute to their efficient use of light and competitive dominance.

Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread among Plant and Animal Species.

PubMed

Wiens, John J

2016-12-01

Current climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, but the extent of species loss will depend on the details of how species respond to changing climates. For example, if most species can undergo rapid change in their climatic niches, then extinctions may be limited. Numerous studies have now documented shifts in the geographic ranges of species that were inferred to be related to climate change, especially shifts towards higher mean elevations and latitudes. Many of these studies contain valuable data on extinctions of local populations that have not yet been thoroughly explored. Specifically, overall range shifts can include range contractions at the "warm edges" of species' ranges (i.e., lower latitudes and elevations), contractions which occur through local extinctions. Here, data on climate-related range shifts were used to test the frequency of local extinctions related to recent climate change. The results show that climate-related local extinctions have already occurred in hundreds of species, including 47% of the 976 species surveyed. This frequency of local extinctions was broadly similar across climatic zones, clades, and habitats but was significantly higher in tropical species than in temperate species (55% versus 39%), in animals than in plants (50% versus 39%), and in freshwater habitats relative to terrestrial and marine habitats (74% versus 46% versus 51%). Overall, these results suggest that local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest relative to those predicted in the next 100 years. These extinctions will presumably become much more prevalent as global warming increases further by roughly 2-fold to 5-fold over the coming decades.

Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread among Plant and Animal Species

PubMed Central

Wiens, John J.

2016-01-01

Current climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, but the extent of species loss will depend on the details of how species respond to changing climates. For example, if most species can undergo rapid change in their climatic niches, then extinctions may be limited. Numerous studies have now documented shifts in the geographic ranges of species that were inferred to be related to climate change, especially shifts towards higher mean elevations and latitudes. Many of these studies contain valuable data on extinctions of local populations that have not yet been thoroughly explored. Specifically, overall range shifts can include range contractions at the “warm edges” of species’ ranges (i.e., lower latitudes and elevations), contractions which occur through local extinctions. Here, data on climate-related range shifts were used to test the frequency of local extinctions related to recent climate change. The results show that climate-related local extinctions have already occurred in hundreds of species, including 47% of the 976 species surveyed. This frequency of local extinctions was broadly similar across climatic zones, clades, and habitats but was significantly higher in tropical species than in temperate species (55% versus 39%), in animals than in plants (50% versus 39%), and in freshwater habitats relative to terrestrial and marine habitats (74% versus 46% versus 51%). Overall, these results suggest that local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest relative to those predicted in the next 100 years. These extinctions will presumably become much more prevalent as global warming increases further by roughly 2-fold to 5-fold over the coming decades. PMID:27930674

Trait-based prediction of extinction risk of small-bodied freshwater fishes.

PubMed

Kopf, R Keller; Shaw, Casey; Humphries, Paul

2017-06-01

Small body size is generally correlated with r-selected life-history traits, including early maturation, short-generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small-bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray-Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi-Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty-three ecological and life-history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of ≤120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed-effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body size-among small-bodied species-was the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k-folds cross-validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small-bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11,000 unclassified freshwater fishes, especially those under threat from proposed dam construction in the world's most biodiverse river basins. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Executive functions deficits impair extinction of generalization of fear of movement-related pain.

PubMed

Niederstrasser, N G; Meulders, A; Meulders, M; Struyf, D; Vlaeyen, J W

2017-05-01

Generalization of fear of movement-related pain across novel but similar movements can lead to fear responses to movements that are actually not associated with pain. The peak-shift effect describes a phenomenon whereby particular novel movements elicit even greater fear responses than the original pain-provoking movement (CS+), because they represent a more extreme version of the CS+. There is great variance in the propensity to generalize as well as the speed of extinction learning when these novel movements are not followed by pain. It can be argued that this variance may be associated with executive function capacity, as individuals may be unable to intentionally inhibit fear responses. This study examined whether executive function capacity contributes to generalization and extinction of generalization as well as peak-shift of conditioned fear of movement-related pain and expectancy. Healthy participants performed a proprioceptive fear conditioning task. Executive function tests assessing updating, switching, and inhibition were used to predict changes in (extinction of) fear of movement-related pain and pain expectancy generalization. Low inhibitory capacity was associated with slower extinction of generalized fear of movement-related pain and pain expectancy. Evidence was found in favor of an area-shift, rather than a peak-shift effect, which implies that the peak conditioned fear response extended to, but did not shift to a novel stimulus. Participants with low inhibitory capacity may have difficulties withholding fear responses, leading to a slower decrease of generalized fear over time. The findings may be relevant to inform treatments. Low inhibitory capacity is not associated with slower generalization, but extinction of fear generalization. Fear elicited by a novel safe movement, situated outside the CS+/- continuum on the CS+ side, can be as strong as to the original stimulus predicting the pain-onset. © 2017 European Pain Federation - EFIC®.

Evaluating the links between climate, disease spread, and amphibian declines.

PubMed

Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Romansic, John M; McCallum, Hamish; Hudson, Peter J

2008-11-11

Human alteration of the environment has arguably propelled the Earth into its sixth mass extinction event and amphibians, the most threatened of all vertebrate taxa, are at the forefront. Many of the worldwide amphibian declines have been caused by the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and two contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain these declines. Positive correlations between global warming and Bd-related declines sparked the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis, which proposes that global warming increased cloud cover in warm years that drove the convergence of daytime and nighttime temperatures toward the thermal optimum for Bd growth. In contrast, the spatiotemporal-spread hypothesis states that Bd-related declines are caused by the introduction and spread of Bd, independent of climate change. We provide a rigorous test of these hypotheses by evaluating (i) whether cloud cover, temperature convergence, and predicted temperature-dependent Bd growth are significant positive predictors of amphibian extinctions in the genus Atelopus and (ii) whether spatial structure in the timing of these extinctions can be detected without making assumptions about the location, timing, or number of Bd emergences. We show that there is spatial structure to the timing of Atelopus spp. extinctions but that the cause of this structure remains equivocal, emphasizing the need for further molecular characterization of Bd. We also show that the reported positive multi-decade correlation between Atelopus spp. extinctions and mean tropical air temperature in the previous year is indeed robust, but the evidence that it is causal is weak because numerous other variables, including regional banana and beer production, were better predictors of these extinctions. Finally, almost all of our findings were opposite to the predictions of the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. Although climate change is likely to play an important role in worldwide amphibian declines, more convincing evidence is needed of a causal link.

Higher threat avoidance costs reduce avoidance behaviour which in turn promotes fear extinction in humans.

PubMed

Rattel, Julina A; Miedl, Stephan F; Blechert, Jens; Wilhelm, Frank H

2017-09-01

Theoretical models specifying the underlying mechanisms of the development and maintenance of anxiety and related disorders state that fear responses acquired through classical Pavlovian conditioning are maintained by repeated avoidance behaviour; thus, it is assumed that avoidance prevents fear extinction. The present study investigated behavioural avoidance decisions as a function of avoidance costs in a naturalistic fear conditioning paradigm. Ecologically valid avoidance costs - manipulated between participant groups - were represented via time-delays during a detour in a gamified computer task. After differential acquisitions of shock-expectancy to a predictive conditioned stimulus (CS+), participants underwent extinction where they could either take a risky shortcut, while anticipating shock signaled by the CS+, or choose a costly avoidance option (lengthy detour); thus, they were faced with an approach-avoidance conflict. Groups with higher avoidance costs (longer detours) showed lower proportions of avoiders. Avoiders gave heightened shock-expectancy ratings post-extinction, demonstrating 'protecting from extinction', i.e. failure to extinguish. Moreover, there was an indirect effect of avoidance costs on protection from extinction through avoidance behaviour. No moderating role of trait-anxiety was found. Theoretical implications of avoidance behaviour are discussed, considering the involvement of instrumental learning in the maintenance of fear responses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Selection, subdivision and extinction and recolonization.

PubMed Central

Cherry, Joshua L

2004-01-01

In a subdivided population, the interaction between natural selection and stochastic change in allele frequency is affected by the occurrence of local extinction and subsequent recolonization. The relative importance of selection can be diminished by this additional source of stochastic change in allele frequency. Results are presented for subdivided populations with extinction and recolonization where there is more than one founding allele after extinction, where these may tend to come from the same source deme, where the number of founding alleles is variable or the founders make unequal contributions, and where there is dominance for fitness or local frequency dependence. The behavior of a selected allele in a subdivided population is in all these situations approximately the same as that of an allele with different selection parameters in an unstructured population with a different size. The magnitude of the quantity N(e)s(e), which determines fixation probability in the case of genic selection, is always decreased by extinction and recolonization, so that deleterious alleles are more likely to fix and advantageous alleles less likely to do so. The importance of dominance or frequency dependence is also altered by extinction and recolonization. Computer simulations confirm that the theoretical predictions of both fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation are good approximations. PMID:15020490

Selection, subdivision and extinction and recolonization.

PubMed

Cherry, Joshua L

2004-02-01

In a subdivided population, the interaction between natural selection and stochastic change in allele frequency is affected by the occurrence of local extinction and subsequent recolonization. The relative importance of selection can be diminished by this additional source of stochastic change in allele frequency. Results are presented for subdivided populations with extinction and recolonization where there is more than one founding allele after extinction, where these may tend to come from the same source deme, where the number of founding alleles is variable or the founders make unequal contributions, and where there is dominance for fitness or local frequency dependence. The behavior of a selected allele in a subdivided population is in all these situations approximately the same as that of an allele with different selection parameters in an unstructured population with a different size. The magnitude of the quantity N(e)s(e), which determines fixation probability in the case of genic selection, is always decreased by extinction and recolonization, so that deleterious alleles are more likely to fix and advantageous alleles less likely to do so. The importance of dominance or frequency dependence is also altered by extinction and recolonization. Computer simulations confirm that the theoretical predictions of both fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation are good approximations.

Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups.

PubMed

Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives I Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

2016-02-01

In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size Neq) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R0, λ or Neq) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R0 showed the lowest EDR10 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h(-1) in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h(-1) in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR10 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR10 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h(-1) in fish to 12,000 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 1800 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. These predictions suggested that proposed reference benchmarks from the literature for different taxonomic groups protected all simulated species against population extinction. A generic reference benchmark of 10 μGy h(-1) protected all simulated species against 10% of the effect causing population extinction. Finally, a risk of pseudo-extinction was predicted from 2.0 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 970 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates, representing a slight but statistically significant population decline, the importance of which remains to be evaluated in natural settings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A dynamic eco-evolutionary model predicts slow response of alpine plants to climate warming.

PubMed

Cotto, Olivier; Wessely, Johannes; Georges, Damien; Klonner, Günther; Schmid, Max; Dullinger, Stefan; Thuiller, Wilfried; Guillaume, Frédéric

2017-05-05

Withstanding extinction while facing rapid climate change depends on a species' ability to track its ecological niche or to evolve a new one. Current methods that predict climate-driven species' range shifts use ecological modelling without eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here we present an eco-evolutionary forecasting framework that combines niche modelling with individual-based demographic and genetic simulations. Applying our approach to four endemic perennial plant species of the Austrian Alps, we show that accounting for eco-evolutionary dynamics when predicting species' responses to climate change is crucial. Perennial species persist in unsuitable habitats longer than predicted by niche modelling, causing delayed range losses; however, their evolutionary responses are constrained because long-lived adults produce increasingly maladapted offspring. Decreasing population size due to maladaptation occurs faster than the contraction of the species range, especially for the most abundant species. Monitoring of species' local abundance rather than their range may likely better inform on species' extinction risks under climate change.

Examining the relationship between local extinction risk and position in range.

PubMed

Boakes, Elizabeth H; Isaac, Nicholas J B; Fuller, Richard A; Mace, Georgina M; McGowan, Philip J K

2018-02-01

Over half of globally threatened animal species have experienced rapid geographic range loss. Identifying the parts of species' distributions most vulnerable to local extinction would benefit conservation planning. However, previous studies give little consensus on whether ranges decline to the core or edge. We built on previous work by using empirical data to examine the position of recent local extinctions within species' geographic ranges, address range position as a continuum, and explore the influence of environmental factors. We aggregated point-locality data for 125 Galliform species from across the Palearctic and Indo-Malaya into equal-area half-degree grid cells and used a multispecies dynamic Bayesian occupancy model to estimate rates of local extinctions. Our model provides a novel approach to identify loss of populations from within species ranges. We investigated the relationship between extinction rates and distance from range edge by examining whether patterns were consistent across biogeographic realm and different categories of land use. In the Palearctic, local extinctions occurred closer to the range edge than range core in both unconverted and human-dominated landscapes. In Indo-Malaya, no pattern was found for unconverted landscapes, but in human-dominated landscapes extinctions tended to occur closer to the core than the edge. Our results suggest that local and regional factors override general spatial patterns of recent local extinction within species' ranges and highlight the difficulty of predicting the parts of a species' distribution most vulnerable to threat. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Extinction Generates Outcome-Specific Conditioned Inhibition.

PubMed

Laurent, Vincent; Chieng, Billy; Balleine, Bernard W

2016-12-05

Extinction involves altering a previously established predictive relationship between a cue and its outcome by repeatedly presenting that cue alone. Although it is widely accepted that extinction generates some form of inhibitory learning [1-4], direct evidence for this claim has been lacking, and the nature of the associative changes induced by extinction have, therefore, remained a matter of debate [5-8]. In the current experiments, we used a novel behavioral approach that we recently developed and that provides a direct measure of conditioned inhibition [9] to compare the influence of extinguished and non-extinguished cues on choice between goal-directed actions. Using this approach, we provide direct evidence that extinction generates outcome-specific conditioned inhibition. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this inhibitory learning is controlled by the infralimbic cortex (IL); inactivation of the IL using M4 DREADDs abolished outcome-specific inhibition and rendered the cue excitatory. Importantly, we found that context modulated this inhibition. Outside its extinction context, the cue was excitatory and functioned as a specific predictor of its previously associated outcome, biasing choice toward actions earning the same outcome. In its extinction context, however, the cue acted as a specific inhibitor and biased choice toward actions earning different outcomes. Context modulation of these excitatory and inhibitory memories was mediated by the dorsal hippocampus (HPC), suggesting that the HPC and IL act in concert to control the influence of conditioned inhibitors on choice. These findings demonstrate for the first time that extinction turns a cue into a net inhibitor that can influence choice via counterfactual action-outcome associations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The panchromatic Hubble Andromeda treasury. VII. The steep mid-ultraviolet to near-infrared extinction curve in the central 200 pc of the M31 Bulge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dong, Hui; Lauer, Tod R.; Olsen, Knut

We measure the extinction curve in the central 200 pc of M31 at mid-ultraviolet to near-infrared wavelengths (from 1928 Å to 1.5 μm), using Swift/UVOT and Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3)/Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) observations in 13 bands. Taking advantage of the high angular resolution of the HST/WFC3 and ACS detectors, we develop a method to simultaneously determine the relative extinction and the fraction of obscured starlight for five dusty complexes located in the circumnuclear region. The extinction curves of these clumps (R{sub V} = 2.4-2.5) are steeper than the average Galactic one (R{sub V}more » = 3.1), but are similar to optical and near-infrared curves recently measured toward the Galactic bulge (R{sub V} ∼ 2.5). This similarity suggests that steep extinction curves may be common in the inner bulge of galaxies. In the ultraviolet, the extinction curves of these clumps are also unusual. We find that one dusty clump (size < 2 pc) exhibits a strong UV bump (extinction at 2175 Å), more than three standard deviation higher than that predicted by common models. Although the high stellar metallicity of the M31 bulge indicates that there are sufficient carbon and silicon to produce large dust grains, the grains may have been destroyed by supernova explosions or past activity of the central supermassive black hole, resulting in the observed steepened extinction curve.« less

Delayed extinction and stronger drug-primed reinstatement of methamphetamine seeking in rats prenatally exposed to morphine.

PubMed

Shen, Ying-Ling; Chen, Shao-Tsu; Chan, Tzu-Yi; Hung, Tsai-Wei; Tao, Pao-Luh; Liao, Ruey-Ming; Chan, Ming-Huan; Chen, Hwei-Hsien

2016-02-01

Prenatal morphine (PM) affects the development of brain reward system and cognitive function. The present study aimed to determine whether PM exposure increases the vulnerability to MA addiction. Pregnant Sprague-Dawley rats were administered saline or morphine during embryonic days 3-20. The acquisition, extinction and reinstatement of methamphetamine (MA) conditioned place preference (CPP) and intravenous self-administration (SA) paradigms were assessed in the male adult offspring. There was no difference in the acquisition and expression of MA CPP between saline- and PM-exposed rats, whereas PM-exposed rats exhibited slower extinction and greater MA priming-induced reinstatement of drug-seeking behavior than controls. Similarly, MA SA under progressive ratio and fixed ratio schedules was not affected by PM exposure, but PM-exposed rats required more extinction sessions to reach the extinction criteria and displayed more severe MA priming-, but not cue-induced, reinstatement. Such alterations in extinction and reinstatement were not present when PM-exposed rats were tested in an equivalent paradigm assessing operant responding for food pellets. Our results demonstrate that PM exposure did not affect the association memory formation during acquisition of MA CPP or SA, but impaired extinction learning and increased MA-primed reinstatement in both tasks. These findings suggest that the offspring of women using morphine or heroin during pregnancy might predict persistent MA seeking during extinction and enhanced propensity to MA relapse although they might not be more susceptible to the reinforcing effect of MA during initiation of drug use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Parameterization of the Extinction Coefficient in Ice and Mixed-Phase Arctic Clouds during the ISDAC Field Campaign

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Korolev, A; Shashkov, A; Barker, H

This report documents the history of attempts to directly measure cloud extinction, the current measurement device known as the Cloud Extinction Probe (CEP), specific problems with direct measurement of extinction coefficient, and the attempts made here to address these problems. Extinction coefficient is one of the fundamental microphysical parameters characterizing bulk properties of clouds. Knowledge of extinction coefficient is of crucial importance for radiative transfer calculations in weather prediction and climate models given that Earth's radiation budget (ERB) is modulated much by clouds. In order for a large-scale model to properly account for ERB and perturbations to it, it mustmore » ultimately be able to simulate cloud extinction coefficient well. In turn this requires adequate and simultaneous simulation of profiles of cloud water content and particle habit and size. Similarly, remote inference of cloud properties requires assumptions to be made about cloud phase and associated single-scattering properties, of which extinction coefficient is crucial. Hence, extinction coefficient plays an important role in both application and validation of methods for remote inference of cloud properties from data obtained from both satellite and surface sensors (e.g., Barker et al. 2008). While estimation of extinction coefficient within large-scale models is relatively straightforward for pure water droplets, thanks to Mie theory, mixed-phase and ice clouds still present problems. This is because of the myriad forms and sizes that crystals can achieve, each having their own unique extinction properties. For the foreseeable future, large-scale models will have to be content with diagnostic parametrization of crystal size and type. However, before they are able to provide satisfactory values needed for calculation of radiative transfer, they require the intermediate step of assigning single-scattering properties to particles. The most basic of these is extinction coefficient, yet it is rarely measured directly, and therefore verification of parametrizations is difficult. The obvious solution is to be able to measure microphysical properties and extinction at the same time and for the same volume. This is best done by in situ sampling by instruments mounted on either balloon or aircraft. The latter is the usual route and the one employed here. Yet the problem of actually measuring extinction coefficient directly for arbitrarily complicated particles still remains unsolved.« less

Photometric theory for wide-angle phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Usher, Peter D.

1990-01-01

An examination is made of the problem posed by wide-angle photographic photometry, in order to extract a photometric-morphological history of Comet P/Halley. Photometric solutions are presently achieved over wide angles through a generalization of an assumption-free moment-sum method. Standard stars in the field allow a complete solution to be obtained for extinction, sky brightness, and the characteristic curve. After formulating Newton's method for the solution of the general nonlinear least-square problem, an implementation is undertaken for a canonical data set. Attention is given to the problem of random and systematic photometric errors.

Differential effects of serotonin-specific and excitotoxic lesions of OFC on conditioned reinforcer devaluation and extinction in rats

PubMed Central

West, Elizabeth A.; Forcelli, Patrick A.; McCue, David L.; Malkova, Ludise

2013-01-01

The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) is critical for behavioral adaptation in response to changes in reward value. Here we investigated, in rats, the role of OFC and, specifically, serotonergic neurotransmission within OFC in a reinforcer devaluation task (which measures behavioral flexibility). This task used two visual cues, each predicting one of two foods, with the spatial position (left-right) of the cues above two levers pseudorandomized across trials. An instrumental action (lever press) was required for reinforcer delivery. After training, rats received either excitotoxic OFC lesions made by NMDA (N-methyl-D-aspartic acid), serotonin-specific OFC lesions made by 5,7-DHT (5,7-dihydroxytryptamine), or sham lesions. In sham-lesioned rats, devaluation of one food (by feeding to satiety) significantly decreased responding to the cue associated with that food, when both cues were presented simultaneously during extinction. Both types of OFC lesions disrupted the devaluation effect. In contrast, extinction learning was not affected by serotonin-specific lesions and was only mildly retarded in rats with excitotoxic lesions. Thus, serotonin within OFC is necessary for appropriately adjusting behavior towards cues that predict reward but not for reducing responses in the absence of reward. Our results are the first to demonstrate that serotonin in OFC is necessary for reinforcer devaluation, but not extinction. PMID:23458741

A counterflow diffusion flame study of branched octane isomers

DOE PAGES

Sarathy, S. Mani; Niemann, Ulrich; Yeung, Coleman; ...

2012-09-25

Conventional petroleum, Fischer–Tropsch (FT), and other alternative hydrocarbon fuels typically contain a high concentration of lightly methylated iso-alkanes. However, until recently little work has been done on this important class of hydrocarbon components. In order to better understand the combustion characteristics of real fuels, this study presents new experimental data for 3-methylheptane and 2,5-dimethylhexane in counterflow diffusion flames. This new dataset includes flame ignition, extinction, and speciation profiles. The high temperature oxidation of these fuels has been modeled using an extended transport database and a high temperature skeletal chemical kinetic model. The skeletal model is generated from a detailed modelmore » reduced using the directed relation graph with expert knowledge (DRG-X) methodology. The proposed skeletal model contains sufficient chemical fidelity to accurately predict the experimental speciation data in flames. The predictions are compared to elucidate the effects of number and location of the methyl substitutions. The location is found to have little effect on ignition and extinction in these counterflow diffusion flames. However, increasing the number of methyl substitutions was found to inhibit ignition and promote extinction. Chemical kinetic modelling simulations were used to correlate a fuel’s extinction propensity with its ability to populate the H radical concentration. In conclusion, species composition measurements indicate that the location and number of methyl substitutions was found to particularly affect the amount and type of alkenes observed.« less

Ecological Impacts of Reverse Speciation in Threespine Stickleback.

PubMed

Rudman, Seth M; Schluter, Dolph

2016-02-22

Young species are highly prone to extinction via increased gene flow after human-caused environmental changes. This mechanism of biodiversity loss, often termed reverse speciation or introgressive extinction, is of exceptional interest because the parent species are typically highly differentiated ecologically. Reverse speciation events are potentially powerful case studies for the role of evolution in driving ecological changes, as the phenotypic shifts associated with introgressive extinction can be large and they occur over particularly short timescales. Furthermore, reverse speciation can lead to novel phenotypes, which may in turn produce novel ecological effects. Here we investigate the ecological shift associated with reverse speciation in threespine stickleback fish using a field study and a replicated experiment. We find that an instance of introgressive extinction had cascading ecological consequences that altered the abundance of both aquatic prey and the pupating aquatic insects that emerged into the terrestrial ecosystem. The community and ecosystem impacts of reverse speciation were novel, and yet they were also predictable based on ecological and morphological considerations. The study suggests that knowledge about the community ecology and changes in functional morphology of a dominant species may lead to some predictive power for the ecological effects of evolutionary change. Moreover, the rapid nature and resultant ecological impacts associated with reverse speciation demonstrates the interplay between biodiversity, evolutionary change, and ecosystem function. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular evolutionary rates predict both extinction and speciation in temperate angiosperm lineages

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background A positive relationship between diversification (i.e., speciation) and nucleotide substitution rates is commonly reported for angiosperm clades. However, the underlying cause of this relationship is often unknown because multiple intrinsic and extrinsic factors can affect the relationship, and these have confounded previous attempts infer causation. Determining which factor drives this oft-reported correlation can lend insight into the macroevolutionary process. Results Using a new database of 13 time-calibrated angiosperm phylogenies based on internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences, and controlling for extrinsic variables of life history and habitat, I evaluated several potential intrinsic causes of this correlation. Speciation rates (λ) and relative extinction rates (ε) were positively correlated with mean substitution rates, but were uncorrelated with substitution rate heterogeneity. It is unlikely that the positive diversification-substitution correlation is due to accelerated molecular evolution during speciation (e.g., via enhanced selection or drift), because punctuated increases in ITS rate (i.e., greater mean and variation in ITS rate for rapidly speciating clades) were not observed. Instead, fast molecular evolution likely increases speciation rate (via increased mutational variation as a substrate for selection and reproductive isolation) but also increases extinction (via mutational genetic load). Conclusions In general, these results predict that clades with higher background substitution rates may undergo successful diversification under new conditions while clades with lower substitution rates may experience decreased extinction during environmental stasis. PMID:20515493

Differential effects of serotonin-specific and excitotoxic lesions of OFC on conditioned reinforcer devaluation and extinction in rats.

PubMed

West, Elizabeth A; Forcelli, Patrick A; McCue, David L; Malkova, Ludise

2013-06-01

The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) is critical for behavioral adaptation in response to changes in reward value. Here we investigated, in rats, the role of OFC and, specifically, serotonergic neurotransmission within OFC in a reinforcer devaluation task (which measures behavioral flexibility). This task used two visual cues, each predicting one of two foods, with the spatial position (left-right) of the cues above two levers pseudorandomized across trials. An instrumental action (lever press) was required for reinforcer delivery. After training, rats received either excitotoxic OFC lesions made by NMDA (N-methyl-d-aspartic acid), serotonin-specific OFC lesions made by 5,7-DHT (5,7-dihydroxytryptamine), or sham lesions. In sham-lesioned rats, devaluation of one food (by feeding to satiety) significantly decreased responding to the cue associated with that food, when both cues were presented simultaneously during extinction. Both types of OFC lesions disrupted the devaluation effect. In contrast, extinction learning was not affected by serotonin-specific lesions and was only mildly retarded in rats with excitotoxic lesions. Thus, serotonin within OFC is necessary for appropriately adjusting behavior toward cues that predict reward but not for reducing responses in the absence of reward. Our results are the first to demonstrate that serotonin in OFC is necessary for reinforcer devaluation, but not extinction. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change

PubMed Central

Aguilée, Robin; Raoul, Gaël; Rousset, François; Ronce, Ophélie

2016-01-01

Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative genetics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change. PMID:27621443

Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change.

PubMed

Aguilée, Robin; Raoul, Gaël; Rousset, François; Ronce, Ophélie

2016-09-27

Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative genetics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change.

Coupled Monte Carlo Probability Density Function/ SPRAY/CFD Code Developed for Modeling Gas-Turbine Combustor Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1995-01-01

The success of any solution methodology for studying gas-turbine combustor flows depends a great deal on how well it can model various complex, rate-controlling processes associated with turbulent transport, mixing, chemical kinetics, evaporation and spreading rates of the spray, convective and radiative heat transfer, and other phenomena. These phenomena often strongly interact with each other at disparate time and length scales. In particular, turbulence plays an important role in determining the rates of mass and heat transfer, chemical reactions, and evaporation in many practical combustion devices. Turbulence manifests its influence in a diffusion flame in several forms depending on how turbulence interacts with various flame scales. These forms range from the so-called wrinkled, or stretched, flamelets regime, to the distributed combustion regime. Conventional turbulence closure models have difficulty in treating highly nonlinear reaction rates. A solution procedure based on the joint composition probability density function (PDF) approach holds the promise of modeling various important combustion phenomena relevant to practical combustion devices such as extinction, blowoff limits, and emissions predictions because it can handle the nonlinear chemical reaction rates without any approximation. In this approach, mean and turbulence gas-phase velocity fields are determined from a standard turbulence model; the joint composition field of species and enthalpy are determined from the solution of a modeled PDF transport equation; and a Lagrangian-based dilute spray model is used for the liquid-phase representation with appropriate consideration of the exchanges of mass, momentum, and energy between the two phases. The PDF transport equation is solved by a Monte Carlo method, and existing state-of-the-art numerical representations are used to solve the mean gasphase velocity and turbulence fields together with the liquid-phase equations. The joint composition PDF approach was extended in our previous work to the study of compressible reacting flows. The application of this method to several supersonic diffusion flames associated with scramjet combustor flow fields provided favorable comparisons with the available experimental data. A further extension of this approach to spray flames, three-dimensional computations, and parallel computing was reported in a recent paper. The recently developed PDF/SPRAY/computational fluid dynamics (CFD) module combines the novelty of the joint composition PDF approach with the ability to run on parallel architectures. This algorithm was implemented on the NASA Lewis Research Center's Cray T3D, a massively parallel computer with an aggregate of 64 processor elements. The calculation procedure was applied to predict the flow properties of both open and confined swirl-stabilized spray flames.

Climate change, thermal niches, extinction risk and maternal-effect rescue of Toad-headed lizards, Phrynocephalus, in thermal extremes of the Arabian Peninsula to the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Sinervo, Barry; Miles, Donald B; Wu, Yayong; Méndez de la Cruz, Fausto R; Kirchoff, Sebastian; Qi, Yin

2018-02-13

Determining the susceptibility of species to changing thermal niches is a major goal for biologists. In this paper we develop an eco-physiological model of extinction risk under climate change premised on behavioral thermoregulation. Our method downscales operative environmental temperatures, which restrict hours of activity of lizards, h r , for present-day climate (1975) and future climate scenarios (2070). We apply our model using occurrence records of 20 Phrynocephalus lizards (or taxa in species complexes) drawn from literature and museum records. Our analysis is phylogenetically informed, because some clades may be more sensitive to rising temperatures. Computed h r limits predict local extirpations among Phrynocephalus lizards at continental scales and delineate upper boundaries of thermal niches as defined by Extreme Value Distributions. Under the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway scenario, we predict extirpation of 64% of local populations by 2070 across 20 Phrynocephalus species, and 12 are at high risk of total extinction due to thermal limits being exceeded. In tandem with global strategies of lower CO 2 emissions, we propose regional strategies for establishing new National Parks to protect extinction-prone taxa by preserving high-elevation climate refugia within existing sites of species occurrence. We propose that evolved acclimatization - maternal plasticity - may ameliorate risk, but is poorly studied. Previous studies revealed that adaptive maternal plasticity by thermoregulating gravid females alter progeny thermal preferences by ±1°C. We describe plasticity studies for extinction-prone species that could assess whether they might be buffered from climate warming - a self-rescue. We discuss an epigenetic framework for studying such maternal-effect evolution. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Albedo and flux extinction coefficient of impure snow for diffuse shortwave radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choudhury, B. J.; Mo, T.; Wang, J. R.; Chang, A. T. C.

1981-01-01

Impurities enter a snowpack as a result of fallout of scavenging by falling snow crystals. Albedo and flux extinction coefficient of soot contaminated snowcovers were studied using a two stream approximation of the radiative transfer equation. The effect of soot was calculated by two methods: independent scattering by ice grains and impurities and average refractive index for ice grains. Both methods predict a qualitatively similar effect of soot; the albedo is decreased and the extinction coefficient is increased compared to that for pure snow in the visible region; the infrared properties are largely unaffected. Quantitatively, however, the effect of soot is more pronounced in the average refractive index method. Soot contamination provides a qualitative explanation for several snow observations.

Estradiol levels in women predict skin conductance response but not valence and expectancy ratings in conditioned fear extinction.

PubMed

White, Emily C; Graham, Bronwyn M

2016-10-01

Anxiety disorders are more prevalent in women than men. One contributing factor may be the sex hormone estradiol, which is known to impact the long term recall of conditioned fear extinction, a laboratory procedure that forms the basis of exposure therapy for anxiety disorders. To date, the literature examining estradiol and fear extinction in humans has focused primarily on physiological measures of fear, such as skin conductance response (SCR) and fear potentiated startle. This is surprising, given that models of anxiety identify at least three important components: physiological symptoms, cognitive beliefs, and avoidance behavior. To help address this gap, we exposed women with naturally high (n=20) or low estradiol (n=19), women using hormonal contraceptives (n=16), and a male control group (n=18) to a fear extinction task, and measured SCR, US expectancy and CS valence ratings. During extinction recall, low estradiol was associated with greater recovery of SCR, but was not related to US expectancy or CS evaluation. Importantly, women using hormonal contraceptives showed a dissociation between SCR and cognitive beliefs: they exhibited a greater recovery of SCR during extinction recall, yet reported similar US expectancy and CS valence ratings to the other female groups. This divergence underscores the importance of assessing multiple measures of fear when examining the role of estradiol in human fear extinction, especially when considering the potential of estradiol as an enhancement for psychological treatments for anxiety disorders. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High prices for rare species can drive large populations extinct: the anthropogenic Allee effect revisited.

PubMed

Holden, Matthew H; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2017-09-21

Consumer demand for plant and animal products threatens many populations with extinction. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) proposes that such extinctions can be caused by prices for wildlife products increasing with species rarity. This price-rarity relationship creates financial incentives to extract the last remaining individuals of a population, despite higher search and harvest costs. The AAE has become a standard approach for conceptualizing the threat of economic markets on endangered species. Despite its potential importance for conservation, AAE theory is based on a simple graphical model with limited analysis of possible population trajectories. By specifying a general class of functions for price-rarity relationships, we show that the classic theory can understate the risk of species extinction. AAE theory proposes that only populations below a critical Allee threshold will go extinct due to increasing price-rarity relationships. Our analysis shows that this threshold can be much higher than the original theory suggests, depending on initial harvest effort. More alarmingly, even species with population sizes above this Allee threshold, for which AAE predicts persistence, can be destined to extinction. Introducing even a minimum price for harvested individuals, close to zero, can cause large populations to cross the classic anthropogenic Allee threshold on a trajectory towards extinction. These results suggest that traditional AAE theory may give a false sense of security when managing large harvested populations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Candle Flame Behavior In Variable Gravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alsairafi, A.; Tien, J. S.; Lee, S. T.; Dietrich, D. L.; Ross, H. D.

2003-01-01

The burning of a candle, as typical non-propagating diffusion flame, has been used by a number of researchers to study the effects of electric fields on flame, spontaneous flame oscillation and flickering phenomena, and flame extinction. In normal gravity, the heat released from combustion creates buoyant convection that draws oxygen into the flame. The strength of the buoyant flow depends on the gravitational level and it is expected that the flame shape, size and candle burning rate will vary with gravity. Experimentally, there exist studies of candle burning in enhanced gravity (i.e. higher than normal earth gravity, g(sub e)), and in microgravity in drop towers and space-based facilities. There are, however, no reported experimental data on candle burning in partial gravity (g < g(sub e)). In a previous numerical model of the candle flame, buoyant forces were neglected. The treatment of momentum equation was simplified using a potential flow approximation. Although the predicted flame characteristics agreed well with the experimental results, the model cannot be extended to cases with buoyant flows. In addition, because of the use of potential flow, no-slip boundary condition is not satisfied on the wick surface. So there is some uncertainty on the accuracy of the predicted flow field. In the present modeling effort, the full Navier-Stokes momentum equations with body force term is included. This enables us to study the effect of gravity on candle flames (with zero gravity as the limiting case). In addition, we consider radiation effects in more detail by solving the radiation transfer equation. In the previous study, flame radiation is treated as a simple loss term in the energy equation. Emphasis of the present model is on the gas-phase processes. Therefore, the detailed heat and mass transfer phenomena inside the porous wick are not treated. Instead, it is assumed that a thin layer of liquid fuel coated the entire wick surface during the burning process. This is the limiting case that the mass transfer process in the wick is much faster than the evaporation process at the wick surface.

Droplet Combustion Experiments Aboard the International Space Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietrich, Daniel L.; Nayagam, Vedha; Hicks, Michael C.; Ferkul, Paul V.; Dryer, Frederick L.; Farouk, Tanvir; Shaw, Benjamin D.; Suh, Hyun Kyu; Choi, Mun Y.; Liu, Yu Cheng; Avedisian, C. Thomas; Williams, Forman A.

2014-10-01

This paper summarizes the first results from isolated droplet combustion experiments performed on the International Space Station (ISS). The long durations of microgravity provided in the ISS enable the measurement of droplet and flame histories over an unprecedented range of conditions. The first experiments were with heptane and methanol as fuels, initial droplet droplet diameters between 1.5 and 5.0 m m, ambient oxygen mole fractions between 0.1 and 0.4, ambient pressures between 0.7 and 3.0 a t m and ambient environments containing oxygen and nitrogen diluted with both carbon dioxide and helium. The experiments show both radiative and diffusive extinction. For both fuels, the flames exhibited pre-extinction flame oscillations during radiative extinction with a frequency of approximately 1 H z. The results revealed that as the ambient oxygen mole fraction was reduced, the diffusive-extinction droplet diameter increased and the radiative-extinction droplet diameter decreased. In between these two limiting extinction conditions, quasi-steady combustion was observed. Another important measurement that is related to spacecraft fire safety is the limiting oxygen index (LOI), the oxygen concentration below which quasi-steady combustion cannot be supported. This is also the ambient oxygen mole fraction for which the radiative and diffusive extinction diameters become equal. For oxygen/nitrogen mixtures, the LOI is 0.12 and 0.15 for methanol and heptane, respectively. The LOI increases to approximately 0.14 (0.14 O 2/0.56 N 2/0.30 C O 2) and 0.17 (0.17 O 2/0.63 N 2/0.20 C O 2) for methanol and heptane, respectively, for ambient environments that simulated dispersing an inert-gas suppressant (carbon dioxide) into a nominally air (1.0 a t m) ambient environment. The LOI is approximately 0.14 and 0.15 for methanol and heptane, respectively, when helium is dispersed into air at 1 atm. The experiments also showed unique burning behavior for large heptane droplets. After the visible hot flame radiatively extinguished around a large heptane droplet, the droplet continued to burn with a cool flame. This phenomena was observed repeatably over a wide range of ambient conditions. These cool flames were invisible to the experiment imaging system but their behavior was inferred by the sustained quasi-steady burning after visible flame extinction. Verification of this new burning regime was established by both theoretical and numerical analysis of the experimental results. These innovative experiments have provided a wealth of new data for improving the understanding of droplet combustion and related aspects of fire safety, as well as offering important measurements that can be used to test sophisticated evolving computational models and theories of droplet combustion.

Bio-markers and the search for extinct life on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, D. E.; Mancinelli, R. L.

1989-01-01

In order to predict what biomarkers could be used on Mars, several biomarkers, or key signatures, of extinct life on earth are identified. Some of these biomarkers which may be applicable to Mars include reduced carbon and nitrogen compounds, CO3(2-), SO4(2-), NO3(-), Mg, Mn, Fe, and the isotopic ratios of C, N, and S. It is suggested that a fully equipped Mars rover might be able to perform analyses to measure most of these biomarkers while on the Martian surface.

Astrophysical implications of periodicity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muller, Richard A.

1988-01-01

Two remarkable discoveries of the last decade have profound implications for astrophysics and for geophysics. These are the discovery by Alvarez et al., that certain mass extinctions are caused by the impact on the earth of a large asteroid or comet, and the discovery by Raup and Sepkoski that such extinctions are periodic, with a cycle time of 26 to 30 million years. The validity of both of these discoveries is assumed and the implications are examined. Most of the phenomena described depend not on periodicity, but just on the weaker assumption that the impacts on the earth take place primarily in showers. Proposed explanations for the periodicity include galactic oscillations, the Planet X model, and the possibility of Nemesis, a solar companion star. These hypotheses are critically examined. Results of the search for the solar companion are reported. The Deccan flood basalts of India have been proposed as the impact site for the Cretaceous impact, but this hypotheisis is in contradiction with the conclusion of Courtillot et al., that the magma flow began during a period of normal magnetic field. A possible resolution of this contradiction is proposed.

A Unified Theory of Impact Crises and Mass Extinctions: Quantitative Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rampino, Michael R.; Haggerty, Bruce M.; Pagano, Thomas C.

1997-01-01

Several quantitative tests of a general hypothesis linking impacts of large asteroids and comets with mass extinctions of life are possible based on astronomical data, impact dynamics, and geological information. The waiting of large-body impacts on the Earth derive from the flux of Earth-crossing asteroids and comets, and the estimated size of impacts capable of causing large-scale environmental disasters, predict that impacts of objects greater than or equal to 5 km in diameter (greater than or equal to 10 (exp 7) Mt TNT equivalent) could be sufficient to explain the record of approximately 25 extinction pulses in the last 540 Myr, with the 5 recorded major mass extinctions related to impacts of the largest objects of greater than or equal to 10 km in diameter (greater than or equal to 10(exp 8) Mt Events). Smaller impacts (approximately 10 (exp 6) Mt), with significant regional environmental effects, could be responsible for the lesser boundaries in the geologic record.

Extinction Dynamics and Control in Adaptive Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Ira; Shaw, Leah; Hindes, Jason

Disease control is of paramount importance in public health. Moreover, models of disease spread are an important component in implementing effective vaccination and treatment campaigns. However, human behavior in response to an outbreak has only recently been included in epidemic models on networks. Here we develop the mathematical machinery to describe the dynamics of extinction in finite populations that include human adaptive behavior. The formalism enables us to compute the optimal, fluctuation-induced path to extinction, and predict the average extinction time in adaptive networks as a function of the adaptation rate. We find that both observables have several unique scalings depending on the relative speed of infection and adaptivity. Finally, we discuss how the theory can be used to design optimal control programs in general networks, by coupling the effective force of noise with treatment and human behavior. Research supported by U.S. Naval Research Laboratory funding (Grant No. N0001414WX00023) and the Office of Naval Research (Grant No. N0001414WX20610).

Species-specific responses of Late Quaternary megafauna to climate and humans

PubMed Central

Lorenzen, Eline D.; Nogués-Bravo, David; Orlando, Ludovic; Weinstock, Jaco; Binladen, Jonas; Marske, Katharine A.; Ugan, Andrew; Borregaard, Michael K.; Gilbert, M. Thomas P.; Nielsen, Rasmus; Ho, Simon Y. W.; Goebel, Ted; Graf, Kelly E.; Byers, David; Stenderup, Jesper T.; Rasmussen, Morten; Campos, Paula F.; Leonard, Jennifer A.; Koepfli, Klaus-Peter; Froese, Duane; Zazula, Grant; Stafford, Thomas W.; Aaris-Sørensen, Kim; Batra, Persaram; Haywood, Alan M.; Singarayer, Joy S.; Valdes, Paul J.; Boeskorov, Gennady; Burns, James A.; Davydov, Sergey P.; Haile, James; Jenkins, Dennis L.; Kosintsev, Pavel; Kuznetsova, Tatyana; Lai, Xulong; Martin, Larry D.; McDonald, H. Gregory; Mol, Dick; Meldgaard, Morten; Munch, Kasper; Stephan, Elisabeth; Sablin, Mikhail; Sommer, Robert S.; Sipko, Taras; Scott, Eric; Suchard, Marc A.; Tikhonov, Alexei; Willerslev, Rane; Wayne, Robert K.; Cooper, Alan; Hofreiter, Michael; Sher, Andrei; Shapiro, Beth; Rahbek, Carsten; Willerslev, Eske

2014-01-01

Despite decades of research, the roles of climate and humans in driving the dramatic extinctions of large-bodied mammals during the Late Quaternary remain contentious. We use ancient DNA, species distribution models and the human fossil record to elucidate how climate and humans shaped the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros, woolly mammoth, wild horse, reindeer, bison and musk ox. We show that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years. However, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment. Although climate change alone can explain the extinction of some species, such as Eurasian musk ox and woolly rhinoceros, a combination of climatic and anthropogenic effects appears to be responsible for the extinction of others, including Eurasian steppe bison and wild horse. We find no genetic signature or any distinctive range dynamics distinguishing extinct from surviving species, underscoring the challenges associated with predicting future responses of extant mammals to climate and human-mediated habitat change. PMID:22048313

Enhancement of large fluctuations to extinction in adaptive networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.; Shaw, Leah B.

2018-01-01

During an epidemic, individual nodes in a network may adapt their connections to reduce the chance of infection. A common form of adaption is avoidance rewiring, where a noninfected node breaks a connection to an infected neighbor and forms a new connection to another noninfected node. Here we explore the effects of such adaptivity on stochastic fluctuations in the susceptible-infected-susceptible model, focusing on the largest fluctuations that result in extinction of infection. Using techniques from large-deviation theory, combined with a measurement of heterogeneity in the susceptible degree distribution at the endemic state, we are able to predict and analyze large fluctuations and extinction in adaptive networks. We find that in the limit of small rewiring there is a sharp exponential reduction in mean extinction times compared to the case of zero adaption. Furthermore, we find an exponential enhancement in the probability of large fluctuations with increased rewiring rate, even when holding the average number of infected nodes constant.

Thin-film magnetless Faraday rotators for compact heterogeneous integrated optical isolators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karki, Dolendra; Stenger, Vincent; Pollick, Andrea; Levy, Miguel

2017-06-01

This report describes the fabrication, characterization, and transfer of ultra-compact thin-film magnetless Faraday rotators to silicon photonic substrates. Thin films of magnetization latching bismuth-substituted rare-earth iron garnets were produced from commercially available materials by mechanical lapping, dice polishing, and crystal-ion-slicing. Eleven- μ m -thick films were shown to retain the 45 ° Faraday rotation of the bulk material to within 2 ° at 1.55 μ m wavelength without re-poling. Anti-reflection coated films evince 0.09 dB insertion loses and better than -20 dB extinction ratios. Lower extinction ratios than the bulk are ascribed to multimode propagation. Significantly larger extinction ratios are predicted for single-mode waveguides. Faraday rotation, extinction ratios, and insertion loss tests on He-ion implanted slab waveguides of the same material yielded similar results. The work culminated with bond alignment and transfer of 7 μ m -thick crystal-ion-sliced 50 × 480 μ m 2 films onto silicon photonic substrates.

Consequences of biodiversity loss diverge from expectation due to post-extinction compensatory responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomsen, Matthias S.; Garcia, Clement; Bolam, Stefan G.; Parker, Ruth; Godbold, Jasmin A.; Solan, Martin

2017-03-01

Consensus has been reached that global biodiversity loss impairs ecosystem functioning and the sustainability of services beneficial to humanity. However, the ecosystem consequences of extinction in natural communities are moderated by compensatory species dynamics, yet these processes are rarely accounted for in impact assessments and seldom considered in conservation programmes. Here, we use marine invertebrate communities to parameterise numerical models of sediment bioturbation - a key mediator of biogeochemical cycling - to determine whether post-extinction compensatory mechanisms alter biodiversity-ecosystem function relations following non-random extinctions. We find that compensatory dynamics lead to trajectories of sediment mixing that diverge from those without compensation, and that the form, magnitude and variance of each probabilistic distribution is highly influenced by the type of compensation and the functional composition of surviving species. Our findings indicate that the generalized biodiversity-function relation curve, as derived from multiple empirical investigations of random species loss, is unlikely to yield representative predictions for ecosystem properties in natural systems because the influence of post-extinction community dynamics are under-represented. Recognition of this problem is fundamental to management and conservation efforts, and will be necessary to ensure future plans and adaptation strategies minimize the adverse impacts of the biodiversity crisis.

Context-Dependent Encoding of Fear and Extinction Memories in a Large-Scale Network Model of the Basal Amygdala

PubMed Central

Vlachos, Ioannis; Herry, Cyril; Lüthi, Andreas; Aertsen, Ad; Kumar, Arvind

2011-01-01

The basal nucleus of the amygdala (BA) is involved in the formation of context-dependent conditioned fear and extinction memories. To understand the underlying neural mechanisms we developed a large-scale neuron network model of the BA, composed of excitatory and inhibitory leaky-integrate-and-fire neurons. Excitatory BA neurons received conditioned stimulus (CS)-related input from the adjacent lateral nucleus (LA) and contextual input from the hippocampus or medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). We implemented a plasticity mechanism according to which CS and contextual synapses were potentiated if CS and contextual inputs temporally coincided on the afferents of the excitatory neurons. Our simulations revealed a differential recruitment of two distinct subpopulations of BA neurons during conditioning and extinction, mimicking the activation of experimentally observed cell populations. We propose that these two subgroups encode contextual specificity of fear and extinction memories, respectively. Mutual competition between them, mediated by feedback inhibition and driven by contextual inputs, regulates the activity in the central amygdala (CEA) thereby controlling amygdala output and fear behavior. The model makes multiple testable predictions that may advance our understanding of fear and extinction memories. PMID:21437238

VISION - Vienna Survey in Orion. II. Infrared extinction in Orion A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meingast, Stefan; Alves, João; Lombardi, Marco

2018-06-01

We have investigated the shape of the extinction curve in the infrared up to 25μm for the Orion A star-forming complex. The basis of this work is near-infrared data acquired with the Visual and Infrared Survey Telescope for Astronomy, in combination with Pan-STARRS and mid-infrared Spitzer photometry. We obtain colour excess ratios for eight passbands by fitting a series of colour-colour diagrams. The fits are performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, together with a linear model under a Bayesian formalism. The resulting colour excess ratios are directly interpreted as a measure of the extinction law. We show that the Orion A molecular cloud is characterized by flat mid-infrared extinction, similar to many other recently studied sightlines. Moreover, we find statistically significant evidence that the extinction law from 1μm to at least 6μm varies across the cloud. In particular, we find a gradient along galactic longitude, where regions near the Orion Nebula Cluster show a different extinction law compared to L1641 and L1647, the low-mass star-forming sites in the cloud complex. These variations are of the order of only 3% and are most likely caused by the influence of the massive stars on their surrounding medium. While the observed general trends in our measurements are in agreement with model predictions, both well-established and new dust grain models are not able to fully reproduce our infrared extinction curve. We also present a new extinction map featuring a resolution of 1' and revisit the correlation between extinction and dust optical depth. This analysis shows that cloud substructure, which is not sampled by background sources, affects the conversion factor between these two measures. In conclusion, we argue that specific characteristics of the infrared extinction law are still not well understood, but Orion A can serve as an unbiased template for future studies. The extinction map (FITS file) is only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/614/A65

Burned and buried by the Siberian traps: tree trunks in volcaniclastics and lavas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polozov, Alexander G.; Planke, Sverre; Svensen, Henrik H.; Jerram, Dougal A.; Looy, Cindy

2017-04-01

Major Phanerozoic mass extinctions could be explained by intense volcanic activity related to the formation of Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs). The Siberian Traps LIP possibly caused the most severe mass extinction on the Earth, the end-Permian extinction. This event is documented by global data showing the extinction of floral and faunal species and by stable isotope excursions. Information about the direct impact of the Siberian Traps on the local flora and fauna is scarce. By our knowledge, no detailed description has been done on the faith of trees in Siberia. However, the story of Late Permian giant trees like Cordaites and wood ferns, could shed light on the impact of the onset of the LIP magmatism and the related mass extinction. For the first time we describe that Late Permian tree trunks were buried in volcaniclastic deposits and at the footwall contact of the oldest lava flows of the Siberian Traps, and despite that this phenomenon is known by local geologists it is not well described in the literature. Tree trunks in volcaniclastic deposits were compressed during consolidation of the volcaniclastic material originated from pyroclastic density currents from nearby volcanic centers. Tree petrification is presented by quartz with minor sulphides, zeolite, calcite and sulphates. Tree trunks at the footwall contact of the lava flows have a better preserved year rings structure and late permineralization presented by calcite with minor quartz and sulphides. Our results demonstrate that intensive magmatic activity related with LIP formation affects land vegetation at various grades. Lavas have had a local violent impact, but burned and buried tree trunks have a better preserved structure reflecting single dominated permineralization processes than the tree trunks buried by pyroclastics that have covered extensive areas and followed by trees compression and later multistage permineralization. In a global context, such type of volcanic activity has a variable influence on vegetation realms. Lava flows have had a harsh impact on land flora locally, but in some cases was favorable for preservation of tree remnants. Volcaniclastic deposits covered a wide area, but tree trunks were deformed due to compaction of the pyroclastic rocks. Late water circulation is reflected in multistage permineralization phenomena. Further ash expansion and settling could have a global impact and accelerate the mass extinction.

Convergent translational evidence of a role for anandamide in amygdala-mediated fear extinction, threat processing and stress-reactivity.

PubMed

Gunduz-Cinar, O; MacPherson, K P; Cinar, R; Gamble-George, J; Sugden, K; Williams, B; Godlewski, G; Ramikie, T S; Gorka, A X; Alapafuja, S O; Nikas, S P; Makriyannis, A; Poulton, R; Patel, S; Hariri, A R; Caspi, A; Moffitt, T E; Kunos, G; Holmes, A

2013-07-01

Endocannabinoids are released 'on-demand' on the basis of physiological need, and can be pharmacologically augmented by inhibiting their catabolic degradation. The endocannabinoid anandamide is degraded by the catabolic enzyme fatty acid amide hydrolase (FAAH). Anandamide is implicated in the mediation of fear behaviors, including fear extinction, suggesting that selectively elevating brain anandamide could modulate plastic changes in fear. Here we first tested this hypothesis with preclinical experiments employing a novel, potent and selective FAAH inhibitor, AM3506 (5-(4-hydroxyphenyl)pentanesulfonyl fluoride). Systemic AM3506 administration before extinction decreased fear during a retrieval test in a mouse model of impaired extinction. AM3506 had no effects on fear in the absence of extinction training, or on various non-fear-related measures. Anandamide levels in the basolateral amygdala were increased by extinction training and augmented by systemic AM3506, whereas application of AM3506 to amygdala slices promoted long-term depression of inhibitory transmission, a form of synaptic plasticity linked to extinction. Further supporting the amygdala as effect-locus, the fear-reducing effects of systemic AM3506 were blocked by intra-amygdala infusion of a CB1 receptor antagonist and were fully recapitulated by intra-amygdala infusion of AM3506. On the basis of these preclinical findings, we hypothesized that variation in the human FAAH gene would predict individual differences in amygdala threat-processing and stress-coping traits. Consistent with this, carriers of a low-expressing FAAH variant (385A allele; rs324420) exhibited quicker habituation of amygdala reactivity to threat, and had lower scores on the personality trait of stress-reactivity. Our findings show that augmenting amygdala anandamide enables extinction-driven reductions in fear in mouse and may promote stress-coping in humans.

Research on Relation between El Nino Climate and Summer Electricity Consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, B.; Lin, J. Y.; Liu, C.

2018-01-01

El Nino is a typical climate phenomena. Such phenomena would have influence on climate in China and furthermore impact the electricity condition. This paper is purposed to explore how El Nino phenomena affecting electricity and make prediction on summer electricity consumption. Since meteorological characteristics are complex and multiplex, a variety of meteorological factors should be considered and the paper used Body Feeling Temperature to measure it. Furthermore, to make prediction on summer electricity, the paper used the Pearson Analysis to measure the correlation between weather and electricity and then extracted the weather-used electricity from the whole society electricity using least square method. Finally, the paper built the model on relation between weather-used electricity and body feeling temperature, and took Beijing as an example to make electricity prediction. The prediction idea and model the paper put forward is reliable and practicable.

Time: The Biggest Pattern in Natural History Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gontier, Nathalie

2016-10-01

We distinguish between four cosmological transitions in the history of Western intellectual thought, and focus on how these cosmologies differentially define matter, space and time. We demonstrate that how time is conceptualized significantly impacts a cosmology's notion on causality, and hone in on how time is conceptualized differentially in modern physics and evolutionary biology. The former conflates time with space into a single space-time continuum and focuses instead on the movement of matter, while the evolutionary sciences have a tradition to understand time as a given when they cartography how organisms change across generations over or in time, thereby proving the phenomenon of evolution. The gap becomes more fundamental when we take into account that phenomena studied by chrono-biologists demonstrate that numerous organisms, including humans, have evolved a "sense" of time. And micro-evolutionary/genetic, meso-evolutionary/developmental and macro-evolutionary phenomena including speciation and extinction not only occur by different evolutionary modes and at different rates, they are also timely phenomena that follow different periodicities. This article focusses on delineating the problem by finding its historical roots. We conclude that though time might be an obsolete concept for the physical sciences, it is crucial for the evolutionary sciences where evolution is defined as the change that biological individuals undergo in/over or through time.

Body size and extinction risk in terrestrial mammals above the species level.

PubMed

Tomiya, Susumu

2013-12-01

Mammalian body mass strongly correlates with life history and population properties at the scale of mouse to elephant. Large body size is thus often associated with elevated extinction risk. I examined the North American fossil record (28-1 million years ago) of 276 terrestrial genera to uncover the relationship between body size and extinction probability above the species level. Phylogenetic comparative analysis revealed no correlation between sampling-adjusted durations and body masses ranging 7 orders of magnitude, an observation that was corroborated by survival analysis. Most of the ecological and temporal groups within the data set showed the same lack of relationship. Size-biased generic extinctions do not constitute a general feature of the Holarctic mammalian faunas in the Neogene. Rather, accelerated loss of large mammals occurred during intervals that experienced combinations of regional aridification and increased biomic heterogeneity within continents. The latter phenomenon is consistent with the macroecological prediction that large geographic ranges are critical to the survival of large mammals in evolutionary time. The frequent lack of size selectivity in generic extinctions can be reconciled with size-biased species loss if extinctions of large and small mammals at the species level are often driven by ecological perturbations of different spatial and temporal scales, while those at the genus level are more synchronized in time as a result of fundamental, multiscale environmental shifts.

Promoting Changes in Children's Predictive Rules about Natural Phenomena: The Role of Computer-Based Modelling Strategies. Technical Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frenette, Micheline

Trying to change the predictive rule for the sinking and floating phenomena, students have a great difficulty in understanding density and they are insensitive to empirical counter-examples designed to challenge their own rule. The purpose of this study is to examine the process whereby students from sixth and seventh grades relinquish their…

A review and reassessment of diffraction, scattering, and shadows in electrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, Matthew J.; Sorensen, Christopher M.

2018-05-01

The concepts of diffraction and scattering are well known and considered fundamental in optics and other wave phenomena. For any type of wave, one way to define diffraction is the spreading of waves, i.e., no change in the average propagation direction, while scattering is the deflection of waves with a clear change of propagation direction. However, the terms "diffraction" and "scattering" are often used interchangeably, and hence, a clear distinction between the two is difficult to find. This review considers electromagnetic waves and retains the simple definition that diffraction is the spreading of waves but demonstrates that all diffraction patterns are the result of scattering. It is shown that for electromagnetic waves, the "diffracted" wave from an object is the Ewald-Oseen extinction wave in the far-field zone. The intensity distribution of this wave yields what is commonly called the diffraction pattern. Moreover, this is the same Ewald-Oseen wave that cancels the incident wave inside the object and thereafter continues to do so immediately behind the object to create a shadow. If the object is much wider than the beam but has a hole, e.g., a screen with an aperture, the Ewald-Oseen extinction wave creates the shadow behind the screen and the incident light that passes through the aperture creates the diffraction pattern. This point of view also illustrates Babinet's principle. Thus, it is the Ewald-Oseen extinction theorem that binds together diffraction, scattering, and shadows.

Traumatic stress causes distinctive effects on fear circuit catecholamines and the fear extinction profile in a rodent model of posttraumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Lin, Chen-Cheng; Tung, Che-Se; Lin, Pin-Hsuan; Huang, Chuen-Lin; Liu, Yia-Ping

2016-09-01

Central catecholamines regulate fear memory across the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), amygdala (AMYG), and hippocampus (HPC). However, inadequate evidence exists to address the relationships among these fear circuit areas in terms of the fear symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). By examining the behavioral profile in a Pavlovian fear conditioning paradigm together with tissue/efflux levels of dopamine (DA) and norepinephrine (NE) and their reuptake abilities across the fear circuit areas in rats that experienced single prolonged stress (SPS, a rodent model of PTSD), we demonstrated that SPS-impaired extinction retrieval was concomitant with the changes of central DA/NE in a dissociable manner. For tissue levels, diminished DA and increased NE were both observed in the mPFC and AMYG. DA efflux and synaptosomal DA transporter were consistently reduced in the AMYG/vHPC, whereas SPS reduced NE efflux in the infralimbic cortex and synaptosomal NE transporter in the mPFC. Furthermore, a lower expression of synaptosomal VMAT2 was observed in the mPFC, AMYG, and vHPC after SPS. Finally, negative correlations were observed between retrieval freezing and DA in the mPFC/AMYG; nevertheless, the phenomena became invalid after SPS. Our results suggest that central catecholamines are crucially involved in the retrieval of fear extinction in which DA and NE play distinctive roles across the fear circuit areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

Multiple microtektite horizons in upper Eocene marine sediments: No evidence for mass extinctions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keller, G.; D'Hondt, Steven L.; Vallier, T.L.

1983-01-01

Microtektites have been recovered from three horizons in eight middle Eocene to middle Oligocene marine sediment sequences. Five of these occurrences are coeval and of latest Eocene age (37.5 to 38.0 million years ago); three are coeval and of early late Eocene age (38.5 to 39.5 million years ago); and three are of middle Oligocene age (31 to 32 million years ago). In addition, rare probable microtektites have been found in sediments with ages of about 36.0 to 36.5 million years. The microtektite horizon at 37.5 to 38.0 million years can be correlated with the North American tektite-strewn field, which has a fission track age (minimum) of 34 to 35 million years and a paleomagnetic age of 37.5 to 38.0 million years. There is no evidence for mass faunal extinctions at any of the microtektite horizons. Many of the distinct faunal changes that occurred in the middle Eocene to middle Oligocene can be related to the formation of the Antarctic ice sheet and the associated cooling phenomena and intensification of bottom currents that led to large-scale dissolution of calcium carbonate and erosion, which created areally extensive hiatuses in the deep-sea sediment records. The occurrence of microtektite horizons of several ages and the lack of evidence for faunal extinctions suggest that the effects of extraterrestrial bolide impacts may be unimportant in the biologic realm during middle Eocene to middle Oligocene time.

Ideas for a Teaching Sequence for the Concept of Energy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duit, Reinders; Neumann, Knut

2014-01-01

The energy concept is one of the most important ideas for students to understand. Looking at phenomena through the lens of energy provides powerful tools to model, analyse and predict phenomena in the scientific disciplines. The cross-disciplinary nature of the energy concept enables students to look at phenomena from different angles, helping…

Impact Theory of Mass Extinctions and the Invertebrate Fossil Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez, Walter; Kauffman, Erle G.; Surlyk, Finn; Alvarez, Luis W.; Asaro, Frank; Michel, Helen V.

1984-03-01

There is much evidence that the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary was marked by a massive meteorite impact. Theoretical consideration of the consequences of such an impact predicts sharp extinctions in many groups of animals precisely at the boundary. Paleontological data clearly show gradual declines in diversity over the last 1 to 10 million years in various invertebrate groups. Reexamination of data from careful studies of the best sections shows that, in addition to undergoing the decline, four groups (ammonites, cheilostomate bryozoans, brachiopods, and bivalves) were affected by sudden truncations precisely at the iridium anomaly that marks the boundary. The paleontological record thus bears witness to terminal-Cretaceous extinctions on two time scales: a slow decline unrelated to the impact and a sharp truncation synchronous with and probably caused by the impact.

Trait impulsive choice predicts resistance to extinction and propensity to relapse to cocaine seeking: a bidirectional investigation.

PubMed

Broos, Nienke; Diergaarde, Leontien; Schoffelmeer, Anton Nm; Pattij, Tommy; De Vries, Taco J

2012-05-01

Despite the strong association between impulsivity and addiction in humans, it is still a matter of debate whether impulsive choice predisposes to, or results from, drug dependence. Furthermore, it is unknown whether treating impulsivity can protect against relapse propensity. Therefore, this study explored the bidirectional relationship between impulsive choice and cocaine taking and seeking in rat behavioral models. In experiment 1, to determine whether impulsive choice predisposes to cocaine taking or seeking, rats were selected based on trait impulsivity in a delayed reward task and subsequently compared on various stages of cocaine self-administration (SA). To examine the consequence of cocaine intake on impulsive choice, impulsivity was monitored once a week throughout various stages of cocaine SA. To determine whether treating impulsive choice can protect against relapse propensity, in experiment 2, impulsive choice was manipulated by pharmacological interventions and cocaine-associated contextual cues. Trait impulsive choice as determined in experiment 1 predicted high extinction resistance and enhanced propensity to context-induced relapse in the cocaine SA model, whereas cocaine intake did not alter impulsive choice. Furthermore, acute changes in impulsive choice were not related to rates of context-induced relapse. Taken together, the current data indicate that trait impulsive choice predicts persistent cocaine seeking during extinction and enhanced propensity to relapse, whereas acute manipulations of impulsive choice had no favorable outcomes on relapse measures. These observations suggest that trait impulsivity can be used as a predictive factor for addiction liability, but treating this impulsivity does not necessarily protect against relapse.

The threat of disease increases as species move toward extinction.

PubMed

Heard, Matthew J; Smith, Katherine F; Ripp, Kelsey; Berger, Melanie; Chen, Jane; Dittmeier, Justin; Goter, Maggie; McGarvey, Stephen T; Ryan, Elizabeth

2013-12-01

At local scales, infectious disease is a common driver of population declines, but globally it is an infrequent contributor to species extinction and endangerment. For species at risk of extinction from disease important questions remain unanswered, including when does disease become a threat to species and does it co-occur, predictably, with other threats? Using newly compiled data from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, we examined the relative role and co-occurrence of threats associated with amphibians, birds, and mammals at 6 levels of extinction risk (i.e., Red List status categories: least concern, near threatened, vulnerable, endangered, critically endangered, and extinct in the wild/extinct). We tested the null hypothesis that the proportion of species threatened by disease is the same in all 6 Red List status categories. Our approach revealed a new method for determining when disease most frequently threatens species at risk of extinction. The proportion of species threatened by disease varied significantly between IUCN status categories and linearly increased for amphibians, birds, and all species combined as these taxa move from move from least concern to critically endangered. Disease was infrequently the single contributing threat. However, when a species was negatively affected by a major threat other than disease (e.g., invasive species, land-use change) that species was more likely to be simultaneously threatened by disease than species that had no other threats. Potential drivers of these trends include ecological factors, clustering of phylogenetically related species in Red List status categories, discovery bias among species at greater risk of extinction, and availability of data. We echo earlier calls for baseline data on the presence of parasites and pathogens in species when they show the first signs of extinction risk and arguably before. La Amenaza de Enfermedades Incrementa a Medida que las Especies se Aproximan a la Extinción. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

An interdisciplinary study of the estaurine and coastal oceanography of Block Island Sound and adjacent New York coastal waters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yost, E.; Hollman, R.; Alexander, J.; Nuzzi, R.

1974-01-01

ERTS-1 photographic data products have been analyzed using additive color viewing and electronic image analysis techniques. Satellite data were compared to water sample data collected simultaneously with the data of ERTS-1 coverage in New York Bight. Prediction of the absolute value of total suspended particles can be made using composites of positives of MSS bands 5 and 6 which have been precisely made using the step wedge supplied on the imagery. Predictions of the relative value of the extinction coefficient can be made using bands 4 and 5. Thematic charts of total suspended particles (particles per litre) and extinction coefficient provide scientists conducting state and federal water sampling programs in New York Bight with data which improves the performance of these programs.

Quantitative Modeling of Microbial Population Responses to Chronic Irradiation Combined with Other Stressors

PubMed Central

Shuryak, Igor; Dadachova, Ekaterina

2016-01-01

Microbial population responses to combined effects of chronic irradiation and other stressors (chemical contaminants, other sub-optimal conditions) are important for ecosystem functioning and bioremediation in radionuclide-contaminated areas. Quantitative mathematical modeling can improve our understanding of these phenomena. To identify general patterns of microbial responses to multiple stressors in radioactive environments, we analyzed three data sets on: (1) bacteria isolated from soil contaminated by nuclear waste at the Hanford site (USA); (2) fungi isolated from the Chernobyl nuclear-power plant (Ukraine) buildings after the accident; (3) yeast subjected to continuous γ-irradiation in the laboratory, where radiation dose rate and cell removal rate were independently varied. We applied generalized linear mixed-effects models to describe the first two data sets, whereas the third data set was amenable to mechanistic modeling using differential equations. Machine learning and information-theoretic approaches were used to select the best-supported formalism(s) among biologically-plausible alternatives. Our analysis suggests the following: (1) Both radionuclides and co-occurring chemical contaminants (e.g. NO2) are important for explaining microbial responses to radioactive contamination. (2) Radionuclides may produce non-monotonic dose responses: stimulation of microbial growth at low concentrations vs. inhibition at higher ones. (3) The extinction-defining critical radiation dose rate is dramatically lowered by additional stressors. (4) Reproduction suppression by radiation can be more important for determining the critical dose rate, than radiation-induced cell mortality. In conclusion, the modeling approaches used here on three diverse data sets provide insight into explaining and predicting multi-stressor effects on microbial communities: (1) the most severe effects (e.g. extinction) on microbial populations may occur when unfavorable environmental conditions (e.g. fluctuations of temperature and/or nutrient levels) coincide with radioactive contamination; (2) an organism’s radioresistance and bioremediation efficiency in rich laboratory media may be insufficient to carry out radionuclide bioremediation in the field—robustness against multiple stressors is needed. PMID:26808049

Biological review of 82 species of coral petitioned to be included in the Endangered Species Act

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brainard, Russell E.; Birkeland, Charles; Eakin, C. Mark; McElhany, Paul; Miller, Margaret W.; Patterson, Matt; Piniak, G.A.

2011-01-01

The BRT considered two major factors in conducting this review. The first factor was the interaction of natural phenomena and anthropogenic stressors that could potentially contribute to coral extinction. After extensive review of available scientific information, the BRT considers ocean warming, disease, and ocean acidification to be the most influential threats in posing extinction risks to the 82 candidate coral species between now and the year 2100. Threats of local origin but having widespread impact, such as sedimentation, nutrient enrichment, and fishing, were considered of medium importance in determining extinction risks. It is acknowledged that many other threats (e.g., physical damage from storms or ship groundings, invasive species or predator outbreaks, collection and trade) also negatively affect corals, often acutely and dramatically, but generally at relatively small local scales. These local threats were considered to be of limited scope and not deemed to contribute appreciably to the risk of species extinction, except in those special cases where species have restricted geographic or habitat ranges or species have already undergone precipitous population declines such that these local threats further contribute to depensatory processes that can magnify extinction risks (e.g., feedback-loops whereby individual survival decreases with smaller population size). The BRT acknowledges that local and global threats operate on different time scales and, though there is high confidence in the general progression of some key global threats, such as ocean warming and ocean acidification, there is much less certainty in the timing and spatial patterns of these threats. There is also substantial uncertainty in the abilities of the 82 candidate coral species to tolerate or adapt to each of the threats examined, as well as uncertainty in the dynamics of multiple simultaneous stresses. The BRT specifically identified increasing human population levels and the intensity of their collective human consumption as the root drivers of almost all global and local threats to coral species. In evaluating future threat impacts, the BRT attempted to project current trends, without assumptions of future policy changes or technological advances that could potentially alter the projections used in this analysis.

Recent developments in the behavioural and pharmacological enhancement of extinction of drug seeking.

PubMed

Chesworth, Rose; Corbit, Laura H

2017-01-01

One of the principal barriers to overcoming addiction is the propensity to relapse, even after months or years of abstinence. Relapse can be precipitated by cues and contexts associated with drug use; thus, decreasing the conditioned properties of these cues and contexts may assist in preventing relapse. The predictive power of drug cues and contexts can be reduced by repeatedly presenting them in the absence of the drug reinforcer, a process known as extinction. The potential of extinction to limit relapse has generated considerable interest and research over the past few decades. While pre-clinical animal models suggest extinction learning assists relapse prevention, treatment efficacy is often lacking when extinction learning principles are translated into clinical trials. Conklin and Tiffany (Addiction, 2002) suggest the lack of efficacy in clinical practice may be due to limited translation of procedures demonstrated through animal research and propose several methodological improvements to enhance extinction learning for drug addiction. This review will examine recent advances in the behavioural and pharmacological manipulation of extinction learning, based on research from pre-clinical models. In addition, the translation of pre-clinical findings-both those suggested by Conklin and Tiffany () and novel demonstrations from the past 13 years-into clinical trials and the efficacy of these methods in reducing craving and relapse, where available, will be discussed. Finally, we highlight areas where promising pre-clinical models have not yet been integrated into current clinical practice but, if applied, could improve upon existing behavioural and pharmacological methods. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Optical extinction of highly porous aerosol following atmospheric freeze drying

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adler, Gabriela; Haspel, Carynelisa; Moise, Tamar; Rudich, Yinon

2014-06-01

Porous glassy particles are a potentially significant but unexplored component of atmospheric aerosol that can form by aerosol processing through the ice phase of high convective clouds. The optical properties of porous glassy aerosols formed from a freeze-dry cycle simulating freezing and sublimation of ice particles were measured using a cavity ring down aerosol spectrometer (CRD-AS) at 532 nm and 355 nm wavelength. The measured extinction efficiency was significantly reduced for porous organic and mixed organic-ammonium sulfate particles as compared to the extinction efficiency of the homogeneous aerosol of the same composition prior to the freeze-drying process. A number of theoretical approaches for modeling the optical extinction of porous aerosols were explored. These include effective medium approximations, extended effective medium approximations, multilayer concentric sphere models, Rayleigh-Debye-Gans theory, and the discrete dipole approximation. Though such approaches are commonly used to describe porous particles in astrophysical and atmospheric contexts, in the current study, these approaches predicted an even lower extinction than the measured one. Rather, the best representation of the measured extinction was obtained with an effective refractive index retrieved from a fit to Mie scattering theory assuming spherical particles with a fixed void content. The single-scattering albedo of the porous glassy aerosols was derived using this effective refractive index and was found to be lower than that of the corresponding homogeneous aerosol, indicating stronger relative absorption at the wavelengths measured. The reduced extinction and increased absorption may be of significance in assessing direct, indirect, and semidirect forcing in regions where porous aerosols are expected to be prevalent.

"Life history space": a multivariate analysis of life history variation in extant and extinct Malagasy lemurs.

PubMed

Catlett, Kierstin K; Schwartz, Gary T; Godfrey, Laurie R; Jungers, William L

2010-07-01

Studies of primate life history variation are constrained by the fact that all large-bodied extant primates are haplorhines. However, large-bodied strepsirrhines recently existed. If we can extract life history information from their skeletons, these species can contribute to our understanding of primate life history variation. This is particularly important in light of new critiques of the classic "fast-slow continuum" as a descriptor of variation in life history profiles across mammals in general. We use established dental histological methods to estimate gestation length and age at weaning for five extinct lemur species. On the basis of these estimates, we reconstruct minimum interbirth intervals and maximum reproductive rates. We utilize principal components analysis to create a multivariate "life history space" that captures the relationships among reproductive parameters and brain and body size in extinct and extant lemurs. Our data show that, whereas large-bodied extinct lemurs can be described as "slow" in some fashion, they also varied greatly in their life history profiles. Those with relatively large brains also weaned their offspring late and had long interbirth intervals. These were not the largest of extinct lemurs. Thus, we distinguish size-related life history variation from variation that linked more strongly to ecological factors. Because all lemur species larger than 10 kg, regardless of life history profile, succumbed to extinction after humans arrived in Madagascar, we argue that large body size increased the probability of extinction independently of reproductive rate. We also provide some evidence that, among lemurs, brain size predicts reproductive rate better than body size. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

To predict the niche, model colonization and extinction

Treesearch

Charles B. Yackulic; James D. Nichols; Janice Reid; Ricky Der

2015-01-01

Ecologists frequently try to predict the future geographic distributions of species. Most studies assume that the current distribution of a species reflects its environmental requirements (i.e., the species’ niche). However, the current distributions of many species are unlikely to be at equilibrium with the current distribution of environmental conditions, both...

Induced changes in island fox (Urocyon littoralis) activity do not mitigate the extinction threat posed by a novel predator.

PubMed

Hudgens, Brian R; Garcelon, David K

2011-03-01

Prey response to novel predators influences the impacts on prey populations of introduced predators, bio-control efforts, and predator range expansion. Predicting the impacts of novel predators on native prey requires an understanding of both predator avoidance strategies and their potential to reduce predation risk. We examine the response of island foxes (Urocyon littoralis) to invasion by golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Foxes reduced daytime activity and increased night time activity relative to eagle-naïve foxes. Individual foxes reverted toward diurnal tendencies following eagle removal efforts. We quantified the potential population impact of reduced diurnality by modeling island fox population dynamics. Our model predicted an annual population decline similar to what was observed following golden eagle invasion and predicted that the observed 11% reduction in daytime activity would not reduce predation risk sufficiently to reduce extinction risk. The limited effect of this behaviorally plastic predator avoidance strategy highlights the importance of linking behavioral change to population dynamics for predicting the impact of novel predators on resident prey populations.

Isolated Liquid Droplet Combustion: Inhibition and Extinction Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dryer, F. L.; Kroenlein, K. G.; Kazakov, A.; Williams, F. A.; Nayagam, V.

2004-01-01

Introduction of fire suppressants to the ambient environment surrounding a heterogeneous diffusion flame may be an inefficient technique for fire safety in systems without buoyant flows. Carbon dioxide substitution for nitrogen diluent leads to significant modifications of the sphero-symmetric burning behavior of isolated n-heptane droplets, partly through increased heat capacity within the gaseous diffusion flame, but mostly because of modifications in spectral radiative coupling in the gas phase. Effects of longer time scale phenomena such as sooting and slow gas-phase/droplet convection remain to be determined. Similar methodologies can be applied to evaluate the effects and efficacy of chemical inhibitors in the liquid and gas phases.

Non-cooperative Fisher-KPP systems: traveling waves and long-time behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girardin, Léo

2018-01-01

This paper is concerned with non-cooperative parabolic reaction-diffusion systems which share structural similarities with the scalar Fisher-KPP equation. These similarities make it possible to prove, among other results, an extinction and persistence dichotomy and, when persistence occurs, the existence of a positive steady state, the existence of traveling waves with a half-line of possible speeds and a positive minimal speed and the equality between this minimal speed and the spreading speed for the Cauchy problem. Non-cooperative KPP systems can model various phenomena where the following three mechanisms occur: local diffusion in space, linear cooperation and superlinear competition.

Atmospheric aerosols: Their Optical Properties and Effects (supplement)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

A digest of technical papers is presented. Topics include aerosol size distribution from spectral attenuation with scattering measurements; comparison of extinction and backscattering coefficients for measured and analytic stratospheric aerosol size distributions; using hybrid methods to solve problems in radiative transfer and in multiple scattering; blue moon phenomena; absorption refractive index of aerosols in the Denver pollution cloud; a two dimensional stratospheric model of the dispersion of aerosols from the Fuego volcanic eruption; the variation of the aerosol volume to light scattering coefficient; spectrophone in situ measurements of the absorption of visible light by aerosols; a reassessment of the Krakatoa volcanic turbidity, and multiple scattering in the sky radiance.

Investigating the effects of critical phenomena in premixed methane-oxygen flames at cryogenic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopal, Abishek; Yellapantula, Shashank; Larsson, Johan

2017-11-01

Methane is increasingly becoming viable as a rocket fuel in the latest generation of launch vehicles. In liquid rocket engines, fuel and oxidizer are injected under cryogenic conditions into the combustion chamber. At high pressures, typical of rocket combustion chambers, the propellants exist in supercritical states where the ideal gas thermodynamics are no longer valid. We investigate the effects of real-gas thermodynamics on transcritical laminar premixed methane-oxygen flames. The effect of the real-gas cubic equations of state and high-pressure transport properties on flame dynamics is presented. We also study real-gas effects on the extinction limits of the methane-oxygen flame.

Active electromagnetic invisibility cloaking and radiation force cancellation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitri, F. G.

2018-03-01

This investigation shows that an active emitting electromagnetic (EM) Dirichlet source (i.e., with axial polarization of the electric field) in a homogeneous non-dissipative/non-absorptive medium placed near a perfectly conducting boundary can render total invisibility (i.e. zero extinction cross-section or efficiency) in addition to a radiation force cancellation on its surface. Based upon the Poynting theorem, the mathematical expression for the extinction, radiation and amplification cross-sections (or efficiencies) are derived using the partial-wave series expansion method in cylindrical coordinates. Moreover, the analysis is extended to compute the self-induced EM radiation force on the active source, resulting from the waves reflected by the boundary. The numerical results predict the generation of a zero extinction efficiency, achieving total invisibility, in addition to a radiation force cancellation which depend on the source size, the distance from the boundary and the associated EM mode order of the active source. Furthermore, an attractive EM pushing force on the active source directed toward the boundary or a repulsive pulling one pointing away from it can arise accordingly. The numerical predictions and computational results find potential applications in the design and development of EM cloaking devices, invisibility and stealth technologies.

Short-term predicted extinction of Andean populations of the lizard Stenocercus guentheri (Iguanidae: Tropidurinae).

PubMed

Andrango, María Belén; Sette, Carla; Torres-Carvajal, Omar

2016-12-01

We studied the thermal physiology of the Andean lizard Stenocercus guentheri in order to evaluate the possible effects of global warming on this species. We determined the preferred body temperature (T pref ), critical thermals (CTmin, CTmax), and hours of restriction and activity. T pref was 32.14±1.83°C; CTmin was 8.31°C in adults and 9.14°C in juveniles, whereas CTmax was 43.28°C in adults and 41.68°C in juveniles. To assess extinction risk, we used the model created by Sinervo et al. (2010) and predicted that 16.7% of populations will have a high risk of extinction by 2020, with an increase to 26.7% by 2050. These results suggest that this species, despite being able to maintain its T pref through behavioral thermoregulation and habitat selection, could be physiologically sensitive to climate warming; thus, the potential for local adaptation may be limited under a warmer climate. Further studies focusing on the ability of S. guentheri to evolve higher T pref and thermal tolerances are needed to understand the ability of this species to respond to climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of precursory information in seismo-electromagnetic phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, P.; Hattori, K.; Zhuang, J.

2017-12-01

Previous statistical studies showed that there were correlations between seismo-electromagnetic phenomena and sizeable earthquakes in Japan. In this study, utilizing Molchan's error diagram, we evaluate whether these phenomena contain precursory information and discuss how they can be used in short-term forecasting of large earthquake events. In practice, for given series of precursory signals and related earthquake events, each prediction strategy is characterized by the leading time of alarms, the length of alarm window, the alarm radius (area) and magnitude. The leading time is the time length between a detected anomaly and its following alarm, and the alarm window is the duration that an alarm lasts. The alarm radius and magnitude are maximum predictable distance and minimum predictable magnitude of earthquake events, respectively. We introduce the modified probability gain (PG') and the probability difference (D') to quantify the forecasting performance and to explore the optimal prediction parameters for a given electromagnetic observation. The above methodology is firstly applied to ULF magnetic data and GPS-TEC data. The results show that the earthquake predictions based on electromagnetic anomalies are significantly better than random guesses, indicating the data contain potential useful precursory information. Meanwhile, we reveal the optimal prediction parameters for both observations. The methodology proposed in this study could be also applied to other pre-earthquake phenomena to find out whether there is precursory information, and then on this base explore the optimal alarm parameters in practical short-term forecast.

Dispersal, niche breadth and population extinction: colonization ratios predict range size in North American dragonflies.

PubMed

McCauley, Shannon J; Davis, Christopher J; Werner, Earl E; Robeson, Michael S

2014-07-01

Species' range sizes are shaped by fundamental differences in species' ecological and evolutionary characteristics, and understanding the mechanisms determining range size can shed light on the factors responsible for generating and structuring biological diversity. Moreover, because geographic range size is associated with a species' risk of extinction and their ability to respond to global changes in climate and land use, understanding these mechanisms has important conservation implications. Despite the hypotheses that dispersal behaviour is a strong determinant of species range areas, few data are available to directly compare the relationship between dispersal behaviour and range size. Here, we overcome this limitation by combining data from a multispecies dispersal experiment with additional species-level trait data that are commonly hypothesized to affect range size (e.g. niche breadth, local abundance and body size.). This enables us to examine the relationship between these species-level traits and range size across North America for fifteen dragonfly species. Ten models based on a priori predictions about the relationship between species traits and range size were evaluated and two models were identified as good predictors of species range size. These models indicated that only two species' level traits, dispersal behaviour and niche breadth were strongly related to range size. The evidence from these two models indicated that dragonfly species that disperse more often and further had larger North American ranges. Extinction and colonization dynamics are expected to be a key linkage between dispersal behaviour and range size in dragonflies. To evaluate how extinction and colonization dynamics among dragonflies were related to range size we used an independent data set of extinction and colonization rates for eleven dragonfly species and assessed the relationship between these populations rates and North American range areas for these species. We found a negative relationship between North American range size and species' extinction-to-colonization ratios. Our results indicate that metapopulation dynamics act to shape the extent of species' continental distributions. These population dynamics are likely to interact with dispersal behaviour, particularly at species range margins, to determine range limits and ultimately species range sizes. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Observers requested for Jovian Extinction Events (JEE2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waagen, Elizabeth O.

2012-07-01

Scotty Degenhardt (Santa Fe, NM), a pioneer in the use of video for timing eclipses of solar system and stellar objects and a research member of the International Occultation Timing Association (IOTA), and colleagues are working on modeling the Jovian dust field, moon atmospheres, and Io's Torus through Jovian Extinction Events (JEE). He has invited AAVSO observers to participate by observing these events and reporting their observations. He writes: "The next Jovian Mutual Event season (JME) is still almost two years away. But the interaction of the Jovian moons is upon us. In July and August there are multiple opportunities to record dimmings of Jovian moons via extinction of their light by the atmospheres of other moons and/or by the dust and gas material in the Torus of Io...Europa's atmosphere is documented to extend out to about 25 Europa radii from its surface. There will be numerous conjunctions, or close misses of Europa with Io and Ganymede over the next several months. Our previous study of JMEs and JEEs have shown that the source of dimming in these events is the moon that is behind the moon possessing a known tenuous atmosphere. The upcoming conjunction JEEs provide the best opportunity to document this extinction phenomenon and give rise to the possibility of inverting the light curve to produce a 3D model of the dust and gasses in the Jovian system...JEE2012 is a great opportunity for amateur and professional astronomers to work together to accomplish something no one thought was possible. That is to actually detect and measure the tenuous atmospheres surrounding some of the moons of Jupiter as well as this same material that is captured in a torus ring around Jupiter, called the Torus of Io. A complete current prediction kit through Aug 2102 is available here: http://scottysmightymini.com./JEE/JEE2012_Jun_Aug.zip. A summary table of upcoming events is here: http://scottysmightymini.com/JEE/JEE2012_Jun_Aug_Table.htm. A FAQ ! file describing the JEE2012 Program is here: http://scottysmightymini. com/JEE/JEE2012_FAQ.htm. It is important to note that we have developed a better prediction method which gives one a predicted light curve so one has a basis to know when and how long to observe. BVR observations are preferred, if possible; spectroscopy is also requested. Details of the observation procedure are given in the prediction kit, as are individual ephemerides for each extinction event. Once you have obtained data, please contact Scotty Degenhardt regarding data reduction.

Lineage fusion in Galápagos giant tortoises.

PubMed

Garrick, Ryan C; Benavides, Edgar; Russello, Michael A; Hyseni, Chaz; Edwards, Danielle L; Gibbs, James P; Tapia, Washington; Ciofi, Claudio; Caccone, Adalgisa

2014-11-01

Although many classic radiations on islands are thought to be the result of repeated lineage splitting, the role of past fusion is rarely known because during these events, purebreds are rapidly replaced by a swarm of admixed individuals. Here, we capture lineage fusion in action in a Galápagos giant tortoise species, Chelonoidis becki, from Wolf Volcano (Isabela Island). The long generation time of Galápagos tortoises and dense sampling (841 individuals) of genetic and demographic data were integral in detecting and characterizing this phenomenon. In C. becki, we identified two genetically distinct, morphologically cryptic lineages. Historical reconstructions show that they colonized Wolf Volcano from Santiago Island in two temporally separated events, the first estimated to have occurred ~199 000 years ago. Following arrival of the second wave of colonists, both lineages coexisted for approximately ~53 000 years. Within that time, they began fusing back together, as microsatellite data reveal widespread introgressive hybridization. Interestingly, greater mate selectivity seems to be exhibited by purebred females of one of the lineages. Forward-in-time simulations predict rapid extinction of the early arriving lineage. This study provides a rare example of reticulate evolution in action and underscores the power of population genetics for understanding the past, present and future consequences of evolutionary phenomena associated with lineage fusion. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On the importance of identifying, characterizing, and predicting fundamental phenomena towards microbial electrochemistry applications.

PubMed

Torres, César Iván

2014-06-01

The development of microbial electrochemistry research toward technological applications has increased significantly in the past years, leading to many process configurations. This short review focuses on the need to identify and characterize the fundamental phenomena that control the performance of microbial electrochemical cells (MXCs). Specifically, it discusses the importance of recent efforts to discover and characterize novel microorganisms for MXC applications, as well as recent developments to understand transport limitations in MXCs. As we increase our understanding of how MXCs operate, it is imperative to continue modeling efforts in order to effectively predict their performance, design efficient MXC technologies, and implement them commercially. Thus, the success of MXC technologies largely depends on the path of identifying, understanding, and predicting fundamental phenomena that determine MXC performance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise

PubMed Central

van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J.; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M.

2011-01-01

The relative importance of environmental colour for extinction risk compared with other aspects of environmental noise (mean and interannual variability) is poorly understood. Such knowledge is currently relevant, as climate change can cause the mean, variability and temporal autocorrelation of environmental variables to change. Here, we predict that the extinction risk of a shorebird population increases with the colour of a key environmental variable: winter temperature. However, the effect is weak compared with the impact of changes in the mean and interannual variability of temperature. Extinction risk was largely insensitive to noise colour, because demographic rates are poor in tracking the colour of the environment. We show that three mechanisms—which probably act in many species—can cause poor environmental tracking: (i) demographic rates that depend nonlinearly on environmental variables filter the noise colour, (ii) demographic rates typically depend on several environmental signals that do not change colour synchronously, and (iii) demographic stochasticity whitens the colour of demographic rates at low population size. We argue that the common practice of assuming perfect environmental tracking may result in overemphasizing the importance of noise colour for extinction risk. Consequently, ignoring environmental autocorrelation in population viability analysis could be less problematic than generally thought. PMID:21561978

Model for macroevolutionary dynamics.

PubMed

Maruvka, Yosef E; Shnerb, Nadav M; Kessler, David A; Ricklefs, Robert E

2013-07-02

The highly skewed distribution of species among genera, although challenging to macroevolutionists, provides an opportunity to understand the dynamics of diversification, including species formation, extinction, and morphological evolution. Early models were based on either the work by Yule [Yule GU (1925) Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 213:21-87], which neglects extinction, or a simple birth-death (speciation-extinction) process. Here, we extend the more recent development of a generic, neutral speciation-extinction (of species)-origination (of genera; SEO) model for macroevolutionary dynamics of taxon diversification. Simulations show that deviations from the homogeneity assumptions in the model can be detected in species-per-genus distributions. The SEO model fits observed species-per-genus distributions well for class-to-kingdom-sized taxonomic groups. The model's predictions for the appearance times (the time of the first existing species) of the taxonomic groups also approximately match estimates based on molecular inference and fossil records. Unlike estimates based on analyses of phylogenetic reconstruction, fitted extinction rates for large clades are close to speciation rates, consistent with high rates of species turnover and the relatively slow change in diversity observed in the fossil record. Finally, the SEO model generally supports the consistency of generic boundaries based on morphological differences between species and provides a comparator for rates of lineage splitting and morphological evolution.

Projected risk of population declines for native fish species in the Upper Mississippi River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crimmins, S.M.; Boma, P.; Thogmartin, W.E.

2015-01-01

Conservationists are in need of objective metrics for prioritizing the management of habitats. For individual species, the threat of extinction is often used to prioritize what species are in need of conservation action. Using long-term monitoring data, we applied a Bayesian diffusion approximation to estimate quasi-extinction risk for 54 native fish species within six commercial navigation reaches along a 1350-km gradient of the upper Mississippi River system. We found a strong negative linear relationship between quasi-extinction risk and distance upstream. For some species, quasi-extinction estimates ranged from nearly zero in some reaches to one in others, suggesting substantial variability in threats facing individual river reaches. We found no evidence that species traits affected quasi-extinction risk across the entire system. Our results indicate that fishes within the upper Mississippi River system face localized threats that vary across river impact gradients. This suggests that conservation actions should be focused on local habitat scales but should also consider the additive effects on downstream conditions. We also emphasize the need for identification of proximate mechanisms behind observed and predicted population declines, as conservation actions will require mitigation of such mechanisms. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Caloric restriction enhances fear extinction learning in mice.

PubMed

Riddle, Megan C; McKenna, Morgan C; Yoon, Yone J; Pattwell, Siobhan S; Santos, Patricia Mae G; Casey, B J; Glatt, Charles E

2013-05-01

Fear extinction learning, the ability to reassess a learned cue of danger as safe when it no longer predicts aversive events, is often dysregulated in anxiety disorders. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI's) enhance neural plasticity and their ability to enhance fear extinction learning may explain their anxiolytic properties. Caloric restriction (CR) has SSRI-like effects on neural plasticity and anxiety-related behavior. We implemented CR in mice to determine its effects on conditioned-fear responses. Wild type and serotonin transporter (SERT) knockout mice underwent CR for 7 days leading to significant weight loss. Mice were then tested for cued fear learning and anxiety-related behavior. CR markedly enhanced fear extinction learning and its retention in adolescent female mice, and adults of both sexes. These effects of CR were absent in SERT knockout mice. Moreover, CR phenocopied behavioral and molecular effects of chronic fluoxetine, but there was no additive effect of CR in fluoxetine-treated mice. These results demonstrate that CR enhances fear extinction learning through a SERT-dependent mechanism. These results may have implications for eating disorders such as anorexia nervosa (AN), in which there is a high prevalence of anxiety before the onset of dietary restriction and support proposals that in AN, CR is a motivated effort to control dysregulated fear responses and elevated anxiety.

Explicit Pore Pressure Material Model in Carbon-Cloth Phenolic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gutierrez-Lemini, Danton; Ehle, Curt

2003-01-01

An explicit material model that uses predicted pressure in the pores of a carbon-cloth phenolic (CCP) composite has been developed. This model is intended to be used within a finite-element model to predict phenomena specific to CCP components of solid-fuel-rocket nozzles subjected to high operating temperatures and to mechanical stresses that can be great enough to cause structural failures. Phenomena that can be predicted with the help of this model include failures of specimens in restrained-thermal-growth (RTG) tests, pocketing erosion, and ply lifting

Colloquium paper: how many tree species are there in the Amazon and how many of them will go extinct?

PubMed

Hubbell, Stephen P; He, Fangliang; Condit, Richard; Borda-de-Agua, Luís; Kellner, James; Ter Steege, Hans

2008-08-12

New roads, agricultural projects, logging, and mining are claiming an ever greater area of once-pristine Amazonian forest. The Millennium Ecosystems Assessment (MA) forecasts the extinction of a large fraction of Amazonian tree species based on projected loss of forest cover over the next several decades. How accurate are these estimates of extinction rates? We use neutral theory to estimate the number, relative abundance, and range size of tree species in the Amazon metacommunity and estimate likely tree-species extinctions under published optimistic and nonoptimistic Amazon scenarios. We estimate that the Brazilian portion of the Amazon Basin has (or had) 11,210 tree species that reach sizes >10 cm DBH (stem diameter at breast height). Of these, 3,248 species have population sizes >1 million individuals, and, ignoring possible climate-change effects, almost all of these common species persist under both optimistic and nonoptimistic scenarios. At the rare end of the abundance spectrum, however, neutral theory predicts the existence of approximately 5,308 species with <10,000 individuals each that are expected to suffer nearly a 50% extinction rate under the nonoptimistic deforestation scenario and an approximately 37% loss rate even under the optimistic scenario. Most of these species have small range sizes and are highly vulnerable to local habitat loss. In ensembles of 100 stochastic simulations, we found mean total extinction rates of 20% and 33% of tree species in the Brazilian Amazon under the optimistic and nonoptimistic scenarios, respectively.

The silent mass extinction of insect herbivores in biodiversity hotspots.

PubMed

Fonseca, Carlos Roberto

2009-12-01

Habitat loss is silently leading numerous insects to extinction. Conservation efforts, however, have not been designed specifically to protect these organisms, despite their ecological and evolutionary significance. On the basis of species-host area equations, parameterized with data from the literature and interviews with botanical experts, I estimated the number of specialized plant-feeding insects (i.e., monophages) that live in 34 biodiversity hotspots and the number committed to extinction because of habitat loss. I estimated that 795,971-1,602,423 monophagous insect species live in biodiversity hotspots on 150,371 endemic plant species, which is 5.3-10.6 monophages per plant species. I calculated that 213,830-547,500 monophagous species are committed to extinction in biodiversity hotspots because of reduction of the geographic range size of their endemic hosts. I provided rankings of biodiversity hotspots on the basis of estimated richness of monophagous insects and on estimated number of extinctions of monophagous species. Extinction rates were predicted to be higher in biodiversity hotspots located along strong environmental gradients and on archipelagos, where high spatial turnover of monophagous species along the geographic distribution of their endemic plants is likely. The results strongly support the overall strategy of selecting priority conservation areas worldwide primarily on the basis of richness of endemic plants. To face the global decline of insect herbivores, one must expand the coverage of the network of protected areas and improve the richness of native plants on private lands.

Long-term archives reveal shifting extinction selectivity in China's postglacial mammal fauna

PubMed Central

Crees, Jennifer J.; Li, Zhipeng; Bielby, Jon; Yuan, Jing

2017-01-01

Ecosystems have been modified by human activities for millennia, and insights about ecology and extinction risk based only on recent data are likely to be both incomplete and biased. We synthesize multiple long-term archives (over 250 archaeological and palaeontological sites dating from the early Holocene to the Ming Dynasty and over 4400 historical records) to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dynamics of Holocene–modern range change across China, a megadiverse country experiencing extensive current-day biodiversity loss, for 34 mammal species over three successive postglacial time intervals. Our combined zooarchaeological, palaeontological, historical and current-day datasets reveal that both phylogenetic and spatial patterns of extinction selectivity have varied through time in China, probably in response both to cumulative anthropogenic impacts (an ‘extinction filter’ associated with vulnerable species and accessible landscapes being affected earlier by human activities) and also to quantitative and qualitative changes in regional pressures. China has experienced few postglacial global species-level mammal extinctions, and most species retain over 50% of their maximum estimated Holocene range despite millennia of increasing regional human pressures, suggesting that the potential still exists for successful species conservation and ecosystem restoration. Data from long-term archives also demonstrate that herbivores have experienced more historical extinctions in China, and carnivores have until recently displayed greater resilience. Accurate assessment of patterns of biodiversity loss and the likely predictive power of current-day correlates of faunal vulnerability and resilience is dependent upon novel perspectives provided by long-term archives. PMID:29167363

Life History Correlates and Extinction Risk of Capital-Breeding Fishes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jager, Yetta; Vila-Gispert, Dr Anna; Rose, Kenneth A.

2008-03-01

We consider a distinction for fishes, often made for birds and reptiles, between capital-breeding and income-breeding species. Species that follow a capital-breeding strategy tend to evolve longer intervals between reproductive events and tend to have characteristics that we associate with higher extinction risk. To examine whether these ideas are relevant for fishes, we assembled life-history data for fish species, including an index of extinction risk, the interval between spawning events, the degree of parental care, and whether or not the species migrates to spawn. These data were used to evaluate two hypotheses: 1) fish species with a major accessory activitymore » to spawning (migration or parental care) spawn less often and 2) fish species that spawn less often are at greater risk of extinction. We tested these hypotheses by applying two alternative statistical methods that account for phylogenetic correlation in cross-taxon comparisons. The two methods predicted average intervals between spawning events 0.13 to 0.20 years longer for fishes with a major accessory activity. Both accessories, above-average parental care and spawning migration, were individually associated with longer average spawning intervals. We conclude that the capital-breeding paradigm is relevant for fishes. We also confirmed the second hypothesis, that species in higher IUCN extinction risk categories had longer average spawning intervals. Further research is needed to understand the relationship between extinction risk and spawning interval, within the broader context of life history traits and aquatic habitats.« less

Extinction threshold for spatial forest dynamics with height structure.

PubMed

Garcia-Domingo, Josep L; Saldaña, Joan

2011-05-07

We present a pair-approximation model for spatial forest dynamics defined on a regular lattice. The model assumes three possible states for a lattice site: empty (gap site), occupied by an immature tree, and occupied by a mature tree, and considers three nonlinearities in the dynamics associated to the processes of light interference, gap expansion, and recruitment. We obtain an expression of the basic reproduction number R(0) which, in contrast to the one obtained under the mean-field approach, uses information about the spatial arrangement of individuals close to extinction. Moreover, we analyze the corresponding survival-extinction transition of the forest and the spatial correlations among gaps, immature and mature trees close to this critical point. Predictions of the pair-approximation model are compared with those of a cellular automaton. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biodiversity hotspots house most undiscovered plant species.

PubMed

Joppa, Lucas N; Roberts, David L; Myers, Norman; Pimm, Stuart L

2011-08-09

For most organisms, the number of described species considerably underestimates how many exist. This is itself a problem and causes secondary complications given present high rates of species extinction. Known numbers of flowering plants form the basis of biodiversity "hotspots"--places where high levels of endemism and habitat loss coincide to produce high extinction rates. How different would conservation priorities be if the catalog were complete? Approximately 15% more species of flowering plant are likely still undiscovered. They are almost certainly rare, and depending on where they live, suffer high risks of extinction from habitat loss and global climate disruption. By using a model that incorporates taxonomic effort over time, regions predicted to contain large numbers of undiscovered species are already conservation priorities. Our results leave global conservation priorities more or less intact, but suggest considerably higher levels of species imperilment than previously acknowledged.

Direction of attention bias to threat relates to differences in fear acquisition and extinction in anxious children.

PubMed

Waters, Allison M; Kershaw, Rachel

2015-01-01

Anxious children show attention biases towards and away from threat stimuli. Moreover, threat avoidance compared to vigilance predicts a poorer outcome from exposure-based treatments, such as cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT), yet the mechanisms underlying this differential response are unclear. Pavlovian fear conditioning is a widely accepted theory to explain the acquisition and extinction of fear, including exposure-based treatments, such as CBT. In typical fear conditioning experiments, anxious children have shown larger physiological responses to an aversive unconditional stimulus (i.e., US on CS+ trials) and to non-reinforced stimuli (CS-) during fear acquisition and to both CSs during fear extinction compared to non-anxious peers. This study examined whether threat avoidance compared to threat vigilance was related to differences in fear acquisition and extinction in anxious children. Thirty-four clinically-anxious children completed a visual probe task including angry-neutral face pairs to determine the direction of threat attention bias as well as a discriminant conditioning and extinction task in which a geometric shape CS+ was paired with an aversive tone US, while the CS- geometric shape was always presented alone during acquisition trials. Both CSs were presented alone during extinction trials. Fear acquisition and extinction were indexed by skin conductance responses (SCR) and subjective measures. Children were classified as threat vigilant (N = 18) and threat avoidant (n = 16) based on the direction of threat attention bias on the visual probe task. During acquisition, threat avoidant relative to threat vigilant anxious children displayed larger orienting SCRs to both CSs during the first block of trials and larger third interval SCRs to the US on CS+ trials as well as on CS- trials. During extinction, threat avoidant anxious children showed delayed extinction of SCRs to both the CS+ and CS- and reported higher subjective anxiety ratings after extinction compared to threat vigilant anxious children. Threat avoidant anxious children may be more reactive physiologically to novel cues and to stimuli that become associated with threat and this may interfere with extinction learning. These findings could help explain previous evidence that threat avoidant anxious children do not respond as well as threat vigilant anxious children to exposure-based CBT. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Asymmetric specialization and extinction risk in plant-flower visitor webs: a matter of morphology or abundance?

PubMed

Stang, Martina; Klinkhamer, Peter G L; van der Meijden, Eddy

2007-03-01

A recently discovered feature of plant-flower visitor webs is the asymmetric specialization of the interaction partners: specialized plants interact mainly with generalized flower visitors and specialized flower visitors mainly with generalized plants. Little is known about the factors leading to this asymmetry and their consequences for the extinction risk of species. Previous studies have proposed random interactions proportional to species abundance as an explanation. However, the simulation models used in these studies did not include potential biological constraints. In the present study, we tested the potential role of both morphological constraints and species abundance in promoting asymmetric specialization. We compared actual field data of a Mediterranean plant-flower visitor web with predictions of Monte Carlo simulations including different combinations of the potential factors structuring the web. Our simulations showed that both nectar-holder depth and abundance were able to produce asymmetry; but that the expected degree of asymmetry was stronger if based on both. Both factors can predict the number of interaction partners, but only nectar-holder depth was able to predict the degree of asymmetry of a certain species. What is more, without the size threshold the influence of abundance would disappear over time. Thus, asymmetric specialization seems to be the result of a size threshold and, only among the allowed interactions above this size threshold, a result of random interactions proportional to abundance. The simulations also showed that asymmetric specialization could not be the reason that the extinction risk of specialists and generalists is equalized, as suggested in the literature. In asymmetric webs specialists clearly had higher short-term extinction risks. In fact, primarily generalist visitors seem to profit from asymmetric specialization. In our web, specialists were less abundant than generalists. Therefore, including abundance in the simulation models increased the difference between specialists and generalists even more.

Annual Research Briefs - 2000: Center for Turbulence Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

This report contains the 2000 annual progress reports of the postdoctoral Fellows and visiting scholars of the Center for Turbulence Research (CTR). It summarizes the research efforts undertaken under the core CTR program. Last year, CTR sponsored sixteen resident Postdoctoral Fellows, nine Research Associates, and two Senior Research Fellows, hosted seven short term visitors, and supported four doctoral students. The Research Associates are supported by the Departments of Defense and Energy. The reports in this volume are divided into five groups. The first group largely consists of the new areas of interest at CTR. It includes efficient algorithms for molecular dynamics, stability in protoplanetary disks, and experimental and numerical applications of evolutionary optimization algorithms for jet flow control. The next group of reports is in experimental, theoretical, and numerical modeling efforts in turbulent combustion. As more challenging computations are attempted, the need for additional theoretical and experimental studies in combustion has emerged. A pacing item for computation of nonpremixed combustion is the prediction of extinction and re-ignition phenomena, which is currently being addressed at CTR. The third group of reports is in the development of accurate and efficient numerical methods, which has always been an important part of CTR's work. This is the tool development part of the program which supports our high fidelity numerical simulations in such areas as turbulence in complex geometries, hypersonics, and acoustics. The final two groups of reports are concerned with LES and RANS prediction methods. There has been significant progress in wall modeling for LES of high Reynolds number turbulence and in validation of the v(exp 2) - f model for industrial applications.

Use of equivalent spheres to model the relation between radar reflectivity and optical extinction of ice cloud particles.

PubMed

Donovan, David Patrick; Quante, Markus; Schlimme, Ingo; Macke, Andreas

2004-09-01

The effect of ice crystal size and shape on the relation between radar reflectivity and optical extinction is examined. Discrete-dipole approximation calculations of 95-GHz radar reflectivity and ray-tracing calculations are applied to ice crystals of various habits and sizes. Ray tracing was used primarily to calculate optical extinction and to provide approximate information on the lidar backscatter cross section. The results of the combined calculations are compared with Mie calculations applied to collections of different types of equivalent spheres. Various equivalent sphere formulations are considered, including equivalent radar-lidar spheres; equivalent maximum dimension spheres; equivalent area spheres, and equivalent volume and equivalent effective radius spheres. Marked differences are found with respect to the accuracy of different formulations, and certain types of equivalent spheres can be used for useful prediction of both the radar reflectivity at 95 GHz and the optical extinction (but not lidar backscatter cross section) over a wide range of particle sizes. The implications of these results on combined lidar-radar ice cloud remote sensing are discussed.

Outcome-Specific Transfer between Predictive and Instrumental Learning Is Unaffected by Extinction but Reversed by Counterconditioning in Human Participants

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosas, Juan M.; Paredes-Olay, Maria C.; Garcia-Gutierrez, Ana; Espinosa, Juan J.; Abad, Maria J. F.

2010-01-01

Three experiments were conducted to explore the effects of different interference treatments upon outcome-specific transfer from predictive learning to instrumental responding. A computer game was designed in which participants had to defend Andalusia from navy and air-force attacks. Participants learned the relationship between two instrumental…

Fire spread probabilities for experimental beds composed of mixedwood boreal forest fuels

Treesearch

M.B. Dickinson; E.A. Johnson; R. Artiaga

2013-01-01

Although fuel characteristics are assumed to have an important impact on fire regimes through their effects on extinction dynamics, limited capabilities exist for predicting whether a fire will spread in mixedwood boreal forest surface fuels. To improve predictive capabilities, we conducted 347 no-wind, laboratory test burns in surface fuels collected from the mixed-...

Characterizing the Norma Overdensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sargent, Benjamin; Chakrabarti, Sukanya; Boyer, Martha; Angeloni, Rodolfo; Sarajedini, Ata; Guhathakurta, Raja

2018-05-01

We recently discovered receding, clustered Cepheid candidates towards the Norma constellation that may mark a new dwarf galaxy of the Milky Way. If this dwarf galaxy is confirmed, this would be a breakthrough in near-field cosmology, as it would represent the first dwarf galaxy that was predicted by a dynamical analysis to be subsequently discovered. Underlying the search for this dwarf galaxy is the hope that one could characterize dark-matter dominated dwarf galaxies from analysis of disturbances in Galactic disks, i.e., Galactoseismology. At b 1, it would also be the closest dwarf galaxy to the Galactic plane. Aside from its expected distinct kinematics, another signature of a dwarf galaxy is an excess of stars in the CMD. When we correct for extinction the VVV photometry of the area where we saw the Cepheid candidates and subtract out a control field (i.e. a Galactic background field), we see an excess of stars that may correspond to red-clump stars at a distance of 80 kpc. However, we used the Bonifacio et al. (2000) extinction prescription that is known to be inaccurate close to the Galactic plane. Majewski et al. (2011) have shown that the combination of NIR and MIR colors, namely H-4.5 micron or K_s - 3.6 micron, can produce a far better extinction correction than prior extinction maps. To extinction correct the VVV data, we need Spitzer data that is complete down to 17 mag in 4.5 um. Deep MIR data are crucial for us to do the extinction correction properly, and Spitzer is the only instrument that can enable this effort. By appropriately correcting the VVV and F2 photometry for extinction following Majewski et al. (2011), we should be able to separate the stellar populations of the expected dwarf galaxy candidate.

Ketamine facilitates extinction of avoidance behavior and enhances synaptic plasticity in a rat model of anxiety vulnerability: Implications for the pathophysiology and treatment of anxiety disorders.

PubMed

Fortress, Ashley M; Smith, Ian M; Pang, Kevin C H

2018-05-08

Anxiety disorders and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) share a common feature of pathological avoidance behavior. The Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rat has been used as a model of anxiety vulnerability, expressing a behaviorally inhibited temperament, acquiring avoidance behavior more rapidly and displaying extinction-resistant avoidance compared to Sprague Dawley (SD) rats. Subanesthetic levels of ketamine have gained attention as a rapid antidepressant in treatment-resistant depression. While traditional antidepressants are commonly used to treat anxiety disorders and PTSD, the therapeutic utility of ketamine for these disorders is much less understood. The hippocampus is critical for the actions of antidepressants, is a structure of implicated in anxiety disorders and PTSD, and is necessary for extinction of avoidance in SD rats. WKY rats have impaired hippocampal long-term potentiation (LTP), suggesting that persistent avoidance in WKY rats may be due to deficient hippocampal synaptic plasticity. In the present study, we hypothesized that ketamine would facilitate extinction of avoidance learning in WKY rats, and do so by enhancing hippocampal synaptic plasticity. As predicted, ketamine facilitated extinction of avoidance behavior in a subset of WKY rats (responders), with effects lasting at least three weeks. Additionally, LTP in these rats was enhanced by ketamine. Ketamine was not effective in facilitating avoidance extinction or in modifying LTP in WKY non-responders. The results suggest that subanesthetic levels of ketamine may be useful for treating anxiety disorders by reducing avoidance behaviors when combined with extinction conditions. Moreover, ketamine may have its long-lasting behavioral effects through enhancing hippocampal synaptic plasticity. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Extinction of Fear Generalization: A Comparison Between Fibromyalgia Patients and Healthy Control Participants.

PubMed

Meulders, Ann; Meulders, Michel; Stouten, Iris; De Bie, Jozef; Vlaeyen, Johan W S

2017-01-01

Fear learning deficiencies might contribute to the development and maintenance of chronic pain disability. Fear is often not restricted to movements (conditioned stimulus [CS+]) originally associated with pain (unconditioned stimulus), but expands to similar movements (generalization stimuli [GSs]). This spreading of fear becomes dysfunctional when overgeneralization to safe stimuli occurs. More importantly, persistence of pain-related fear to GSs despite corrective feedback might even be more debilitating and maintain long-term chronic pain disability. Yet, research on this topic is lacking. Using a voluntary joystick movement paradigm, we examined (extinction of) pain-related fear generalization in fibromyalgia patients (FM) and healthy control participants (HC). During acquisition, one movement (CS+) predicted pain; another did not (CS-). We tested (extinction of) fear generalization to 5 GSs varying in similarity with the CS+ and CS-. Results revealed flatter pain expectancy generalization gradients in FM than in HC due to elevated responses to GSs more similar to the CS-; the fear generalization gradients did not differ. Although pain-related fear and expectancy to the GSs decreased during extinction, responses to the GSs remained higher for FM than HC, suggesting that extinction of generalization is impaired in chronic pain patients. Persistence of excessive protective responses may contribute to maintaining long-term chronic pain disability. Pain-related fear and expectancy to movements-varying in similarity with the original painful and nonpainful movement-decrease during extinction in HC and FM. Yet, conditioned responses remain elevated in patients despite corrective feedback, indicating impaired extinction of generalization. Persistent excessive protective responses may contribute to preserving pain disability. Copyright © 2016 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Failure to extinguish fear and genetic variability in the human cannabinoid receptor 1.

PubMed

Heitland, I; Klumpers, F; Oosting, R S; Evers, D J J; Leon Kenemans, J; Baas, J M P

2012-09-25

Failure to extinguish fear can lead to persevering anxiety and has been postulated as an important mechanism in the pathogenesis of human anxiety disorders. In animals, it is well documented that the endogenous cannabinoid system has a pivotal role in the successful extinction of fear, most importantly through the cannabinoid receptor 1. However, no human studies have reported a translation of this preclinical evidence yet. Healthy medication-free human subjects (N=150) underwent a fear conditioning and extinction procedure in a virtual reality environment. Fear potentiation of the eyeblink startle reflex was measured to assess fear-conditioned responding, and subjective fear ratings were collected. Participants were genotyped for two polymorphisms located within the promoter region (rs2180619) and the coding region (rs1049353) of cannabinoid receptor 1. As predicted from the preclinical literature, acquisition and expression of conditioned fear did not differ between genotypes. Crucially, whereas both homozygote (G/G, N=23) and heterozygote (A/G, N=68) G-allele carriers of rs2180619 displayed robust extinction of fear, extinction of fear-potentiated startle was absent in A/A homozygotes (N=51). Additionally, this resistance to extinguish fear left A/A carriers of rs2180619 with significantly higher levels of fear-potentiated startle at the end of the extinction training. No effects of rs1049353 genotype were observed regarding fear acquisition and extinction. These results suggest for the first time involvement of the human endocannabinoid system in fear extinction. Implications are that genetic variability in this system may underlie individual differences in anxiety, rendering cannabinoid receptor 1 a potential target for novel pharmacological treatments of anxiety disorders.

Predicting primate local extinctions within "real-world" forest fragments: a pan-neotropical analysis.

PubMed

Benchimol, Maíra; Peres, Carlos A

2014-03-01

Understanding the main drivers of species extinction in human-modified landscapes has gained paramount importance in proposing sound conservation strategies. Primates play a crucial role in maintaining the integrity of forest ecosystem functions and represent the best studied order of tropical terrestrial vertebrates, yet primate species diverge widely in their responses to forest habitat disturbance and fragmentation. Here, we present a robust quantitative review on the synergistic effects of habitat fragmentation on Neotropical forest primates to pinpoint the drivers of species extinction across a wide range of forest patches from Mexico to Argentina. Presence-absence data on 19 primate functional groups were compiled from 705 forest patches and 55 adjacent continuous forest sites, which were nested within 61 landscapes investigated by 96 studies. Forest patches were defined in terms of their size, surrounding matrix and level of hunting pressure on primates, and each functional group was classified according to seven life-history traits. Generalized linear mixed models showed that patch size, forest cover, level of hunting pressure, home range size and trophic status were the main predictors of species persistence within forest isolates for all functional groups pooled together. However, patterns of local extinction varied greatly across taxa, with Alouatta and Callicebus moloch showing the highest occupancy rates even within tiny forest patches, whereas Brachyteles and Leontopithecus occupied fewer than 50% of sites, even in relatively large forest tracts. Our results uncover the main predictors of platyrrhine primate species extinction, highlighting the importance of considering the history of anthropogenic disturbances, the structure of landscapes, and species life-history attributes in predicting primate persistence in Neotropical forest patches. We suggest that large-scale conservation planning of fragmented forest landscapes should prioritize and set-aside large, well-connected and strictly protected forest reserves to maximize species persistence across the entire spectrum of primate life-history. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

PubMed

Moyle, Peter B; Kiernan, Joseph D; Crain, Patrick K; Quiñones, Rebecca M

2013-01-01

Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C) are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation priorities in many different regions.

Climate Change Vulnerability of Native and Alien Freshwater Fishes of California: A Systematic Assessment Approach

PubMed Central

Moyle, Peter B.; Kiernan, Joseph D.; Crain, Patrick K.; Quiñones, Rebecca M.

2013-01-01

Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California’s native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C) are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation priorities in many different regions. PMID:23717503

Localized extinction of an arboreal desert lizard caused by habitat fragmentation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munguia-Vega, Adrian; Rodriguez-Estrella, Ricardo; Shaw, William W.; Culver, Melanie

2013-01-01

We adopted a species’ perspective for predicting extinction risk in a small, endemic, and strictly scansorial lizard (Urosaurus nigricaudus), in an old (∼60 year) and highly fragmented (8% habitat remaining) agricultural landscape from the Sonoran Desert, Mexico. We genotyped 10 microsatellite loci in 280 individuals from 11 populations in fragmented and continuous habitat. Individual dispersal was restricted to less than 400 m, according to analyses of spatial autocorrelation and spatially explicit Bayesian assignment methods. Within this scale, continuous areas and narrow washes with native vegetation allowed high levels of gene flow over tens of kilometers. In the absence of the native vegetation, cleared areas and highways were identified as partial barriers. In contrast, outside the scale of dispersal, cleared areas behaved as complete barriers, and surveys corroborated the species went extinct after a few decades in all small (less than 45 ha), isolated habitat fragments. No evidence for significant loss of genetic diversity was found, but results suggested fragmentation increased the spatial scale of movements, relatedness, genetic structure, and potentially affected sex-biased dispersal. A plausible threshold of individual dispersal predicted only 23% of all fragments in the landscape were linked with migration from continuous habitat, while complete barriers isolated the majority of fragments. Our study suggested limited dispersal, coupled with an inability to use a homogeneous and hostile matrix without vegetation and shade, could result in frequent time-delayed extinctions of small ectotherms in highly fragmented desert landscapes, particularly considering an increase in the risk of overheating and a decrease in dispersal potential induced by global warming.

Behavioral Momentum Theory Fails to Account for the Effects of Reinforcement Rate on Resurgence

PubMed Central

Craig, Andrew R.; Shahan, Timothy A.

2017-01-01

The behavioral-momentum model of resurgence predicts reinforcer rates within a resurgence preparation should have three effects on target behavior. First, higher reinforcer rates in baseline (Phase 1) produce more persistent target behavior during extinction plus alternative reinforcement. Second, higher rate alternative reinforcement during Phase 2 generates greater disruption of target responding during extinction. Finally, higher rates of either reinforcement source should produce greater responding when alternative reinforcement is suspended in Phase 3. Recent empirical reports have produced mixed results in terms of these predictions. Thus, the present experiment further examined reinforcer-rate effects on persistence and resurgence. Rats pressed target levers for high-rate or low-rate variable-interval food during Phase 1. In Phase 2, target-lever pressing was extinguished, an alternative nose-poke became available, and nose-poking produced either high-rate variable-interval, low-rate variable-interval, or no (an extinction control) alternative reinforcement. Alternative reinforcement was suspended in Phase 3. For groups that received no alternative reinforcement, target-lever pressing was less persistent following high-rate than low-rate Phase-1 reinforcement. Target behavior was more persistent with low-rate alternative reinforcement than with high-rate alternative reinforcement or extinction alone. Finally, no differences in Phase-3 responding were observed for groups that received either high-rate or low-rate alternative reinforcement, and resurgence occurred only following high-rate alternative reinforcement. These findings are inconsistent with the momentum-based model of resurgence. We conclude this model mischaracterizes the effects of rein-forcer rates on persistence and resurgence of operant behavior. PMID:27193242

Cool-Flame Burning and Oscillations of Envelope Diffusion Flames in Microgravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Fumiaki; Katta, Viswanath R.; Hicks, Michael C.

2018-05-01

The two-stage combustion, local extinction, and flame-edge oscillations have been observed in single-droplet combustion tests conducted on the International Space Station. To understand such dynamic behavior of initially enveloped diffusion flames in microgravity, two-dimensional (axisymmetric) computation is performed for a gaseous n-heptane flame using a time-dependent code with a detailed reaction mechanism (127 species and 1130 reactions), diffusive transport, and a simple radiation model (for CO2, H2O, CO, CH4, and soot). The calculated combustion characteristics vary profoundly with a slight movement of air surrounding a fuel source. In a near-quiescent environment (≤ 2 mm/s), with a sufficiently large fuel injection velocity (1 cm/s), extinction of a growing spherical diffusion flame due to radiative heat losses is predicted at the flame temperature at ≈ 1200 K. The radiative extinction is typically followed by a transition to the "cool flame" burning regime (due to the negative temperature coefficient in the low-temperature chemistry) with a reaction zone (at ≈ 700 K) in close proximity to the fuel source. By contrast, if there is a slight relative velocity (≈ 3 mm/s) between the fuel source and the air, a local extinction of the envelope diffusion flame is predicted downstream at ≈ 1200 K, followed by periodic flame-edge oscillations. At higher relative velocities (4 to 10 mm/s), the locally extinguished flame becomes steady state. The present 2D computational approach can help in understanding further the non-premixed "cool flame" structure and flame-flow interactions in microgravity environments.

Preoperative planning of calcium deposit removal in calcifying tendinitis of the rotator cuff - possible contribution of computed tomography, ultrasound and conventional X-Ray.

PubMed

Izadpanah, Kaywan; Jaeger, Martin; Maier, Dirk; Südkamp, Norbert P; Ogon, Peter

2014-11-20

The purpose of the present study was to investigate the accuracy of Ultrasound (US), conventional X-Ray (CX) and Computed Tomography (CT) to estimate the total count, localization, morphology and consistency of Calcium deposits (CDs) in the rotator cuff. US, CX and CT imaging was performed pre-operatively in 151 patients who underwent arthroscopic removal of CDs in the rotator cuff. In all procedures: (1) total CD counts were determined, (2) the CDs appearance in each image modality was correlated to the intraoperative consistency and (3) CDs were localized in their relation to the acromion using US, CX and CT. Using US158 CDs, using CT 188 CDs and using CX 164 CDs were identified. Reliable localization of the CDs was possible with all used diagnostic modalities. CT revealed 49% of the CDs to be septated, out of which 85% were uni- and 15% multiseptated. CX was not suitable for prediction of CDs consistency. US reliably predicted viscous-solid CDs consistency only when presenting with full sound extinction (PPV 84.6%) . CT had high positive and negative predictive values for detection of liquid-soft (PPV 92.9%) and viscous-solid (PPV 87.8%) CDs. US and CX are sufficient for preoperative planning of CD removal with regards to localization and prediction of consistency if the deposits present with full sound extinction. This is the case in the majority of the patients. However, in patients with missing sound extinction CT can be recommended if CDs consistency of the deposits should be determined. Satellite deposits or septations are regularly present, which is of importance if complete CD removal is aspired.

Hierarchical Models for Type Ia Supernova Light Curves in the Optical and Near Infrared

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandel, Kaisey; Narayan, G.; Kirshner, R. P.

2011-01-01

I have constructed a comprehensive statistical model for Type Ia supernova optical and near infrared light curves. Since the near infrared light curves are excellent standard candles and are less sensitive to dust extinction and reddening, the combination of near infrared and optical data better constrains the host galaxy extinction and improves the precision of distance predictions to SN Ia. A hierarchical probabilistic model coherently accounts for multiple random and uncertain effects, including photometric error, intrinsic supernova light curve variations and correlations across phase and wavelength, dust extinction and reddening, peculiar velocity dispersion and distances. An improved BayeSN MCMC code is implemented for computing probabilistic inferences for individual supernovae and the SN Ia and host galaxy dust populations. I use this hierarchical model to analyze nearby Type Ia supernovae with optical and near infared data from the PAIRITEL, CfA3, and CSP samples and the literature. Using cross-validation to test the robustness of the model predictions, I find that the rms Hubble diagram scatter of predicted distance moduli is 0.11 mag for SN with optical and near infrared data versus 0.15 mag for SN with only optical data. Accounting for the dispersion expected from random peculiar velocities, the rms intrinsic prediction error is 0.08-0.10 mag for SN with both optical and near infrared light curves. I discuss results for the inferred intrinsic correlation structures of the optical-NIR SN Ia light curves and the host galaxy dust distribution captured by the hierarchical model. The continued observation and analysis of Type Ia SN in the optical and near infrared is important for improving their utility as precise and accurate cosmological distance indicators.

Antidepressants reduce extinction-induced withdrawal and biting behaviors: a model for depressive-like behavior.

PubMed

Huston, J P; van den Brink, J; Komorowski, M; Huq, Y; Topic, B

2012-05-17

The withholding of expected rewards results in extinction of behavior and, hypothetically, to depression-like symptoms. In a test of this hypothesis, we examined the effects of extinction of food-reinforced lever-pressing on collateral behaviors that might be indices of depression. Operant extinction is known to be aversive to the organism and results in avoidance behavior. We hypothesized that avoidance of, or withdrawal from, the former source of reward may serve as a marker for "despair." Adult male Wistar rats (n=6-7 animals per group) were exposed to a Skinner box attached to a second compartment of the same size, providing opportunity for the animals to leave the operant chamber and to enter the "withdrawal" compartment. The animals spent a portion of the time during the extinction trials in this second chamber. To assess the predictive validity of this behavior as a potential marker of "despair," we tested the effects of chronic administration of two common antidepressant drugs on this measure. The tricyclic antidepressant imipramine (20 mg/kg) as well as the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor citalopram (20 mg/kg) reduced the number of entries and time spent in the withdrawal compartment. We propose that entries into and time spent in the withdrawal compartment may operationalize "avoidance," a core symptom of major depression. Rearing as well as biting behaviors during the extinction trials were also attenuated by the antidepressant treatment. These results lend support to the hypothesis that extinction of positively reinforced operants evokes behaviors that reflect elements of "despair/depression" because these behaviors are modulated by antidepressant treatment. The avoidance of the operant chamber as a consequence of extinction, together with rearing and biting behaviors, may serve as useful measures for the testing of antidepressant treatments. Copyright © 2012 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Theories of Lethal Mutagenesis: From Error Catastrophe to Lethal Defection.

PubMed

Tejero, Héctor; Montero, Francisco; Nuño, Juan Carlos

2016-01-01

RNA viruses get extinct in a process called lethal mutagenesis when subjected to an increase in their mutation rate, for instance, by the action of mutagenic drugs. Several approaches have been proposed to understand this phenomenon. The extinction of RNA viruses by increased mutational pressure was inspired by the concept of the error threshold. The now classic quasispecies model predicts the existence of a limit to the mutation rate beyond which the genetic information of the wild type could not be efficiently transmitted to the next generation. This limit was called the error threshold, and for mutation rates larger than this threshold, the quasispecies was said to enter into error catastrophe. This transition has been assumed to foster the extinction of the whole population. Alternative explanations of lethal mutagenesis have been proposed recently. In the first place, a distinction is made between the error threshold and the extinction threshold, the mutation rate beyond which a population gets extinct. Extinction is explained from the effect the mutation rate has, throughout the mutational load, on the reproductive ability of the whole population. Secondly, lethal defection takes also into account the effect of interactions within mutant spectra, which have been shown to be determinant for the understanding the extinction of RNA virus due to an augmented mutational pressure. Nonetheless, some relevant issues concerning lethal mutagenesis are not completely understood yet, as so survival of the flattest, i.e. the development of resistance to lethal mutagenesis by evolving towards mutationally more robust regions of sequence space, or sublethal mutagenesis, i.e., the increase of the mutation rate below the extinction threshold which may boost the adaptability of RNA virus, increasing their ability to develop resistance to drugs (including mutagens). A better design of antiviral therapies will still require an improvement of our knowledge about lethal mutagenesis.

Continental faunal exchange and the asymmetrical radiation of carnivores.

PubMed

Pires, Mathias M; Silvestro, Daniele; Quental, Tiago B

2015-10-22

Lineages arriving on islands may undergo explosive evolutionary radiations owing to the wealth of ecological opportunities. Although studies on insular taxa have improved our understanding of macroevolutionary phenomena, we know little about the macroevolutionary dynamics of continental exchanges. Here we study the evolution of eight Carnivora families that have migrated across the Northern Hemisphere to investigate if continental invasions also result in explosive diversification dynamics. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate speciation and extinction rates from a substantial dataset of fossil occurrences while accounting for the incompleteness of the fossil record. Our analyses revealed a strongly asymmetrical pattern in which North American lineages invading Eurasia underwent explosive radiations, whereas lineages invading North America maintained uniform diversification dynamics. These invasions into Eurasia were characterized by high rates of speciation and extinction. The radiation of the arriving lineages in Eurasia coincide with the decline of established lineages or phases of climate change, suggesting differences in the ecological settings between the continents may be responsible for the disparity in diversification dynamics. These results reveal long-term outcomes of biological invasions and show that the importance of explosive radiations in shaping diversity extends beyond insular systems and have significant impact at continental scales. © 2015 The Author(s).

Bubble and Drop Nonlinear Dynamics (BDND)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trinh, E. H.; Leal, L. Gary; Thomas, D. A.; Crouch, R. K.

1998-01-01

Free drops and bubbles are weakly nonlinear mechanical systems that are relatively simple to characterize experimentally in 1-G as well as in microgravity. The understanding of the details of their motion contributes to the fundamental study of nonlinear phenomena and to the measurement of the thermophysical properties of freely levitated melts. The goal of this Glovebox-based experimental investigation is the low-gravity assessment of the capabilities of a modular apparatus based on ultrasonic resonators and on the pseudo- extinction optical method. The required experimental task is the accurate measurements of the large-amplitude dynamics of free drops and bubbles in the absence of large biasing influences such as gravity and levitation fields. A single-axis levitator used for the positioning of drops in air, and an ultrasonic water-filled resonator for the trapping of air bubbles have been evaluated in low-gravity and in 1-G. The basic feasibility of drop positioning and shape oscillations measurements has been verified by using a laptop-interfaced automated data acquisition and the optical extinction technique. The major purpose of the investigation was to identify the salient technical issues associated with the development of a full-scale Microgravity experiment on single drop and bubble dynamics.

Continental faunal exchange and the asymmetrical radiation of carnivores

PubMed Central

Pires, Mathias M.; Silvestro, Daniele; Quental, Tiago B.

2015-01-01

Lineages arriving on islands may undergo explosive evolutionary radiations owing to the wealth of ecological opportunities. Although studies on insular taxa have improved our understanding of macroevolutionary phenomena, we know little about the macroevolutionary dynamics of continental exchanges. Here we study the evolution of eight Carnivora families that have migrated across the Northern Hemisphere to investigate if continental invasions also result in explosive diversification dynamics. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate speciation and extinction rates from a substantial dataset of fossil occurrences while accounting for the incompleteness of the fossil record. Our analyses revealed a strongly asymmetrical pattern in which North American lineages invading Eurasia underwent explosive radiations, whereas lineages invading North America maintained uniform diversification dynamics. These invasions into Eurasia were characterized by high rates of speciation and extinction. The radiation of the arriving lineages in Eurasia coincide with the decline of established lineages or phases of climate change, suggesting differences in the ecological settings between the continents may be responsible for the disparity in diversification dynamics. These results reveal long-term outcomes of biological invasions and show that the importance of explosive radiations in shaping diversity extends beyond insular systems and have significant impact at continental scales. PMID:26490792

Relation of Phanerozoic stable isotope excursions to climate, bacterial metabolism, and major extinctions

PubMed Central

Stanley, Steven M.

2010-01-01

Conspicuous global stable carbon isotope excursions that are recorded in marine sedimentary rocks of Phanerozoic age and were associated with major extinctions have generally paralleled global stable oxygen isotope excursions. All of these phenomena are therefore likely to share a common origin through global climate change. Exceptional patterns for carbon isotope excursions resulted from massive carbon burial during warm intervals of widespread marine anoxic conditions. The many carbon isotope excursions that parallel those for oxygen isotopes can to a large degree be accounted for by the Q10 pattern of respiration for bacteria: As temperature changed along continental margins, where ∼90% of marine carbon burial occurs today, rates of remineralization of isotopically light carbon must have changed exponentially. This would have reduced organic carbon burial during global warming and increased it during global cooling. Also contributing to the δ13C excursions have been release and uptake of methane by clathrates, the positive correlation between temperature and degree of fractionation of carbon isotopes by phytoplankton at temperatures below ∼15°, and increased phytoplankton productivity during “icehouse” conditions. The Q10 pattern for bacteria and climate-related changes in clathrate volume represent positive feedbacks for climate change. PMID:21041682

Lean limit phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Law, C. K.

1984-01-01

The concept of flammability limits in the presence of flame interaction, and the existence of negative flame speeds are discussed. Downstream interaction between two counterflow premixed flames of different stoichiometries are experimentally studied. Various flame configurations are observed and quantified; these include the binary system of two lean or rich flames, the triplet system of a lean and a rich flame separated by a diffusion flame, and single diffusion flames with some degree of premixedness. Extinction limits are determined for methane/air and butane/air mixtures over the entire range of mixture concentrations. The results show that the extent of flame interaction depends on the separation distance between the flames which are functions of the mixtures' concentrations, the stretch rate, and the effective Lewis numbers (Le). In particular, in a positively-stretched flow field Le 1 ( 1) mixtures tend to interact strongly (weakly), while the converse holds for flames in a negatively-stretched flow. Also established was the existence of negative flames whose propagation velocity is in the same general direction as that of the bulk convective flow, being supported by diffusion alone. Their existence demonstrates the tendency of flames to resist extinction, and further emphasizes the possibility of very lean or rich mixtures to undergo combustion.

Attention in the predictive mind.

PubMed

Ransom, Madeleine; Fazelpour, Sina; Mole, Christopher

2017-01-01

It has recently become popular to suggest that cognition can be explained as a process of Bayesian prediction error minimization. Some advocates of this view propose that attention should be understood as the optimization of expected precisions in the prediction-error signal (Clark, 2013, 2016; Feldman & Friston, 2010; Hohwy, 2012, 2013). This proposal successfully accounts for several attention-related phenomena. We claim that it cannot account for all of them, since there are certain forms of voluntary attention that it cannot accommodate. We therefore suggest that, although the theory of Bayesian prediction error minimization introduces some powerful tools for the explanation of mental phenomena, its advocates have been wrong to claim that Bayesian prediction error minimization is 'all the brain ever does'. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting treatment response to cognitive behavioral therapy in panic disorder with agoraphobia by integrating local neural information.

PubMed

Hahn, Tim; Kircher, Tilo; Straube, Benjamin; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Konrad, Carsten; Ströhle, Andreas; Wittmann, André; Pfleiderer, Bettina; Reif, Andreas; Arolt, Volker; Lueken, Ulrike

2015-01-01

Although neuroimaging research has made substantial progress in identifying the large-scale neural substrate of anxiety disorders, its value for clinical application lags behind expectations. Machine-learning approaches have predictive potential for individual-patient prognostic purposes and might thus aid translational efforts in psychiatric research. To predict treatment response to cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) on an individual-patient level based on functional magnetic resonance imaging data in patients with panic disorder with agoraphobia (PD/AG). We included 49 patients free of medication for at least 4 weeks and with a primary diagnosis of PD/AG in a longitudinal study performed at 8 clinical research institutes and outpatient centers across Germany. The functional magnetic resonance imaging study was conducted between July 2007 and March 2010. Twelve CBT sessions conducted 2 times a week focusing on behavioral exposure. Treatment response was defined as exceeding a 50% reduction in Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale scores. Blood oxygenation level-dependent signal was measured during a differential fear-conditioning task. Regional and whole-brain gaussian process classifiers using a nested leave-one-out cross-validation were used to predict the treatment response from data acquired before CBT. Although no single brain region was predictive of treatment response, integrating regional classifiers based on data from the acquisition and the extinction phases of the fear-conditioning task for the whole brain yielded good predictive performance (accuracy, 82%; sensitivity, 92%; specificity, 72%; P < .001). Data from the acquisition phase enabled 73% correct individual-patient classifications (sensitivity, 80%; specificity, 67%; P < .001), whereas data from the extinction phase led to an accuracy of 74% (sensitivity, 64%; specificity, 83%; P < .001). Conservative reanalyses under consideration of potential confounders yielded nominally lower but comparable accuracy rates (acquisition phase, 70%; extinction phase, 71%; combined, 79%). Predicting treatment response to CBT based on functional neuroimaging data in PD/AG is possible with high accuracy on an individual-patient level. This novel machine-learning approach brings personalized medicine within reach, directly supporting clinical decisions for the selection of treatment options, thus helping to improve response rates.

Response of marine and freshwater algae to nitric acid and elevated carbon dioxide levels simulating environmental effects of bolide impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boston, P. J.

1988-01-01

One of the intriguing facets of the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is the apparently selective pattern of mortality amongst taxa. Some groups of organisms were severely affected and some remained relatively unscathed as they went through the K/T boundary. While there is argument concerning the exact interpretation of the fossil record, one of the best documented extinctions at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary is that of the calcareous nannoplankton. These organisms include coccolithic algae and foraminiferans. Attempts to explain their decline at the K/T boundary center around chemistry which could affect their calcium carbonate shells while leaving their silica-shelled cousins less affected or unaffected. Two environmental consequences of an extraterrestrial body impact which were suggested are the production of large quantities of nitrogen oxides generated by the shock heating of the atmosphere and the possible rise in CO2 from the dissolution of CaCO3 shells. Both of these phenomena would acidify the upper layers of the oceans and bodies of freshwater not otherwise buffered. The effects of nitric acid, carbon dioxide, or both factors on the growth and reproduction of calcareous marine coccoliths and non-calcareous marine and freshwater species of algae were considered. These experiments demonstrate that nitric acid and carbon dioxide have significant effects on important aspects of the physiology and reproduction of modern algae representative of extinct taxa thought to have suffered significant declines at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. Furthermore, calcareous species showed more marked effects than siliceous species and marine species tested were more sensitive than freshwater species.

The transition from isolated patches to a metapopulation in the eastern collared lizard in response to prescribed fires.

PubMed

Templeton, Alan R; Brazeal, Hilary; Neuwald, Jennifer L

2011-09-01

Habitat fragmentation often arises from human-induced alterations to the matrix that reduce or eliminate dispersal between habitat patches. Elimination of dispersal increases local extinction and decreases recolonization. These phenomena were observed in the eastern collared lizard (Crotaphytus collaris collaris), which lives in the mid-continental highland region of the Ozarks (Missouri, USA) on glades: habitats of exposed bedrock that form desert-like habitats imbedded in a woodland matrix. With the onset of woodland fire suppression, glade habitats degenerated and the woodland matrix was altered to create a strong barrier to dispersal. By 1980, lizard populations in the Ozarks were rapidly going extinct. In response to this decline, some glades were restored by clearing and burning. Starting in 1984, collared lizard populations were translocated onto these restored habitats. The translocated populations persisted but did not colonize nearby glades or disperse among one another. In 1994 prescribed woodland fires were initiated, which unleashed much dispersal and colonizing behavior. Dispersal was highly nonrandom by both intrinsic variables (age, gender) and extrinsic variables (overall demography, glade population sizes, glade areas, landscape features), resulting in different classes of lizards being dominant in creating demographic cohesiveness among glades, colonizing new glades on a mountain, and colonizing new mountain systems. A dramatic transition was documented from isolated fragments, to a nonequilibrium colonizing metapopulation, and finally to a stable metapopulation. This transition is characterized by the convergence of rates of extinction and recolonization and a major alteration of dispersal probabilities and pattern in going from the nonequilibrium to stable metapopulation states.

Earthquake prediction with electromagnetic phenomena

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hayakawa, Masashi, E-mail: hayakawa@hi-seismo-em.jp; Advanced Wireless & Communications Research Center, UEC, Chofu Tokyo; Earthquake Analysis Laboratory, Information Systems Inc., 4-8-15, Minami-aoyama, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 107-0062

Short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction is defined as prospective prediction with the time scale of about one week, which is considered to be one of the most important and urgent topics for the human beings. If this short-term prediction is realized, casualty will be drastically reduced. Unlike the conventional seismic measurement, we proposed the use of electromagnetic phenomena as precursors to EQs in the prediction, and an extensive amount of progress has been achieved in the field of seismo-electromagnetics during the last two decades. This paper deals with the review on this short-term EQ prediction, including the impossibility myth of EQsmore » prediction by seismometers, the reason why we are interested in electromagnetics, the history of seismo-electromagnetics, the ionospheric perturbation as the most promising candidate of EQ prediction, then the future of EQ predictology from two standpoints of a practical science and a pure science, and finally a brief summary.« less

The Costs of Carnivory

PubMed Central

Carbone, Chris; Teacher, Amber; Rowcliffe, J. Marcus

2007-01-01

Mammalian carnivores fall into two broad dietary groups: smaller carnivores (<20 kg) that feed on very small prey (invertebrates and small vertebrates) and larger carnivores (>20 kg) that specialize in feeding on large vertebrates. We develop a model that predicts the mass-related energy budgets and limits of carnivore size within these groups. We show that the transition from small to large prey can be predicted by the maximization of net energy gain; larger carnivores achieve a higher net gain rate by concentrating on large prey. However, because it requires more energy to pursue and subdue large prey, this leads to a 2-fold step increase in energy expenditure, as well as increased intake. Across all species, energy expenditure and intake both follow a three-fourths scaling with body mass. However, when each dietary group is considered individually they both display a shallower scaling. This suggests that carnivores at the upper limits of each group are constrained by intake and adopt energy conserving strategies to counter this. Given predictions of expenditure and estimates of intake, we predict a maximum carnivore mass of approximately a ton, consistent with the largest extinct species. Our approach provides a framework for understanding carnivore energetics, size, and extinction dynamics. PMID:17227145

Age-Dependent and Lineage-Dependent Speciation and Extinction in the Imbalance of Phylogenetic Trees.

PubMed

Holman, Eric W

2017-11-01

It is known that phylogenetic trees are more imbalanced than expected from a birth-death model with constant rates of speciation and extinction, and also that imbalance can be better fit by allowing the rate of speciation to decrease as the age of the parent species increases. If imbalance is measured in more detail, at nodes within trees as a function of the number of species descended from the nodes, age-dependent models predict levels of imbalance comparable to real trees for small numbers of descendent species, but predicted imbalance approaches an asymptote not found in real trees as the number of descendent species becomes large. Age-dependence must therefore be complemented by another process such as inheritance of different rates along different lineages, which is known to predict insufficient imbalance at nodes with few descendent species, but can predict increasing imbalance with increasing numbers of descendent species. [Crump-Mode-Jagers process; diversification; macroevolution; taxon sampling; tree of life.]. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Anomalous finite-size effects in the Battle of the Sexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremer, J.; Reichenbach, T.; Frey, E.

2008-06-01

The Battle of the Sexes describes asymmetric conflicts in mating behavior of males and females. Males can be philanderer or faithful, while females are either fast or coy, leading to a cyclic dynamics. The adjusted replicator equation predicts stable coexistence of all four strategies. In this situation, we consider the effects of fluctuations stemming from a finite population size. We show that they unavoidably lead to extinction of two strategies in the population. However, the typical time until extinction occurs strongly prolongs with increasing system size. In the emerging time window, a quasi-stationary probability distribution forms that is anomalously flat in the vicinity of the coexistence state. This behavior originates in a vanishing linear deterministic drift near the fixed point. We provide numerical data as well as an analytical approach to the mean extinction time and the quasi-stationary probability distribution.

CCM in the FUV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cartledge, S. I. B.; Clayton, G. C.; Gordon, K. D.

2005-12-01

Over 90% of Milky Way extinction curves sampled from IR through UV wavelengths (UV coverage by IUE) conform to the CCM family of curves based on R(V), a single parameter linked to grain size. The far-ultraviolet (FUV) portion of this formulation, however, was based only on a few sight lines observed by Copernicus, and it has recently been shown that in certain cases CCM does not predict extinction in the FUV as accurately as it does at longer wavelengths. In this poster paper, we present preliminary results from our examination of the agreement between all publicly-available FUSE FUV spectra of reddened O and B stars and their corresponding extinction curves inferred from longer wavelength fluxes. The eventual goal of our project is to reformulate CCM, particularly in the FUV where we have compiled more than 90 sight lines observed by FUSE. We are also exploring correlations between bulk sight line properties and the form of the reconstituted CCM curves.

Featured Image: Extinction in Our Inner Galaxy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Susanna

2017-11-01

In this map of the innermost galaxy, which spans only a few square degrees at the Milky Ways center, we can seethe locations of more than 31 million objects obtained from the VISTA Variables in the Va Lctea (VVV) survey. This near-infrared atlas traces stellar populations in the inner Milky Way that are dimmed and reddened by interstellar dust and gas a process known as extinction in a predictable way. Led by Javier Alonso-Garca (University of Antofagasta and the Millennium Institute of Astrophysics in Chile), a team of scientists has now used the VVV measurements of these stars to better understand the distribution of gas and dust that causes extinction in our inner galaxy particularly in the most central, highly reddened, and crowded areas of the Milky Way. For more information, check out the paper below.CitationJavier Alonso-Garca et al 2017 ApJL 849 L13. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/aa92c3

Synchronization and survival of connected bacterial populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gokhale, Shreyas; Conwill, Arolyn; Ranjan, Tanvi; Gore, Jeff

Migration plays a vital role in controlling population dynamics of species occupying distinct habitat patches. While local populations are vulnerable to extinction due to demographic or environmental stochasticity, migration from neighboring habitat patches can rescue these populations through colonization of uninhabited regions. However, a large migratory flux can synchronize the population dynamics in connected patches, thereby enhancing the risk of global extinction during periods of depression in population size. Here, we investigate this trade-off between local rescue and global extinction experimentally using laboratory populations of E. coli bacteria. Our model system consists of co-cultures of ampicillin resistant and chloramphenicol resistant strains that form a cross-protection mutualism and exhibit period-3 oscillations in the relative population density in the presence of both antibiotics. We quantify the onset of synchronization of oscillations in a pair of co-cultures connected by migration and demonstrate that period-3 oscillations can be disturbed for moderate rates of migration. These features are consistent with simulations of a mechanistic model of antibiotic deactivation in our system. The simulations further predict that the probability of survival of connected populations in high concentrations of antibiotics is maximized at intermediate migration rates. We verify this prediction experimentally and show that survival is enhanced through a combination of disturbance of period-3 oscillations and stochastic re-colonization events.

Within-session effect of repeated stress exposure on extinction circuitry function in social anxiety disorder.

PubMed

Åhs, Fredrik; Gingnell, Malin; Furmark, Tomas; Fredrikson, Mats

2017-03-30

Anxiety reduction following repeated exposure to stressful experiences is generally held to depend on neural processes involved in extinction of conditioned fear. We predicted that repeated exposure to stressful experiences would change activity throughout the circuitry serving extinction, including ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC), the hippocampus and the amygdala. To test this prediction, 36 participants diagnosed with SAD performed two successive speeches in front of an observing audience while regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) was recorded using positron emission tomography. To control for non-anxiolytic effects of repeated exposure, rCBF was also measured during repeated presentations of neutral and angry facial expressions. Results showed that anxiety ratings and heart rate decreased from the first to the second speech, indicating an anxiolytic effect of repeated exposure. Exposure attenuated rCBF in the amygdala whereas no change in rCBF was observed in the vmPFC or hippocampus. The rCBF-reductions in the amygdala were greater following repetition of the speech task than repetition of face exposure indicating that they were specific to anxiety attenuation and not due to a reduced novelty. Our findings suggest that amygdala-related attenuation processes are key to understanding the working mechanisms of exposure therapy. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Acute, but not chronic, exposure to d-cycloserine facilitates extinction and modulates spontaneous recovery of a conditioned taste aversion.

PubMed

Mickley, G Andrew; Remus, Jennifer L; Ramos, Linnet; Wilson, Gina N; Biesan, Orion R; Ketchesin, Kyle D

2012-01-18

D-cycloserine, the glutamate N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor partial agonist, has been reported to facilitate the extinction of learned fears acquired in both naturalistic and laboratory settings. The current study extended this literature by evaluating the ability of either chronic or acute administrations of DCS to modulate the extinction and spontaneous recovery of a conditioned taste aversion (CTA). Twenty-three hour fluid-deprived Sprague-Dawley rats acquired a strong CTA following 3 pairings of a conditioned stimulus (CS; 0.3% oral saccharin)+unconditioned stimulus [US; 81 mg/kg (i.p.) lithium chloride (LiCl)]. In separate groups of rats, we then employed 2 different extinction paradigms: (1) CS-only (CSO-EXT) in which saccharin was presented every-other day, or (2) Explicitly Unpaired (EU-EXT) in which both saccharin and LiCl were presented but on alternate days. Previous studies have indicated that the EU-EXT procedure speeds up the extinction process. Further, spontaneous recovery of a CTA emerges following CSO-EXT but the EU-EXT paradigm causes a suppression of spontaneous recovery. DCS (15 mg/kg, i.p.) was administered immediately after daily liquid presentations (saccharin or water, alternate days) during the extinction period. In an acute drug manipulation, DCS (15 mg/kg, i.p.) or saline control injections were administered for 4 days only. This was done during one of 3 different phases of extinction [i.e., static (2-5%), early dynamic (8-16%), or middle dynamic (20-40%) saccharin reacceptance]. Other animals assigned to the chronic DCS condition received daily DCS (15 mg/kg, i.p.) throughout extinction. Changes in saccharin drinking in these animals were compared to the data from rats that received no drug (saline controls). Once rats met our criterion for asymptotic extinction (90% reacceptance of the CS) they entered a 30-day latency period during which they received water for 1 h/day. The day after the completion of the latency period, a final opportunity to drink saccharin was provided (spontaneous recovery test). Saline-treated control rats that went through the EU-EXT procedure achieved asymptotic extinction more quickly than did the CSO-EXT rats and did not exhibit a spontaneous recovery of the CTA. Chronic DCS treatments did not significantly reduce the time to achieve asymptotic CTA extinction in rats exposed to either CSO or EU extinction methods. Further, animals treated with DCS throughout EU-EXT exhibited a spontaneous recovery of the CTA whereas the saline-treated, EU-EXT rats did not. Thus, chronic DCS treatment did not shorten the time to extinguish a CTA and this treatment eliminated the ability of EU-EXT to block spontaneous recovery of the CTA. Acute DCS treatments were more effective in reducing the time required to extinguish a CTA than were chronic drug treatments. Moreover, the timing of these acute DCS treatments affected spontaneous recovery of the CTA depending on the extinction method employed. Acute DCS administrations later in extinction were more effective in reducing spontaneous recovery than were early administrations if the rats went through the CSO-EXT procedure. However, late-in-extinction administrations of DCS facilitated spontaneous recovery of the CTA in rats that experienced the EU-EXT method. These data agree with other findings suggesting that DCS treatments are more effective when administered a limited number of times. Our data extend these findings to the CTA paradigm and further suggest that, depending on the extinction paradigm employed, acute exposure to DCS can speed up CTA extinction and reduce spontaneous recovery of the aversion. The timing of the acute DCS treatment during extinction is generally less important than its duration in predicting the rate of CTA extinction. However, the timing of acute DCS treatments during extinction and the method of extinction employed can interact to affect spontaneous recovery of a CTA. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigation of percolation thickness of sputter coated thin NiCr films on clear float glass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkan, Selen; Arpat, Erdem; Peters, Sven

2017-11-01

Percolation thickness of reactively sputtered nickel chromium (NiCr) thin films is reported in this study. Nickel-chromium films with the thicknesses in between 1 and 10 nm were deposited on 4 mm clear glass substrate by dc magnetron sputtering. Optical properties such as refractive index, extinction coefficient and also sheet resistance, carrier concentration and mobility of NiCr films were determined by a combination of variable-angle spectroscopic ellipsometry and four point probe measurements. We show both the percolation phenomena in atmosphere and critical percolation thickness for thin NiCr films by both electrical and optical techniques. The two techniques gave consistent results with each other.

Bifurcation and extinction limit of stretched premixed flames with chain-branching intermediate kinetics and radiative loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Huangwei; Chen, Zheng

2018-05-01

Premixed counterflow flames with thermally sensitive intermediate kinetics and radiation heat loss are analysed within the framework of large activation energy. Unlike previous studies considering one-step global reaction, two-step chemistry consisting of a chain branching reaction and a recombination reaction is considered here. The correlation between the flame front location and stretch rate is derived. Based on this correlation, the extinction limit and bifurcation characteristics of the strained premixed flame are studied, and the effects of fuel and radical Lewis numbers as well as radiation heat loss are examined. Different flame regimes and their extinction characteristics can be predicted by the present theory. It is found that fuel Lewis number affects the flame bifurcation qualitatively and quantitatively, whereas radical Lewis number only has a quantitative influence. Stretch rates at the stretch and radiation extinction limits respectively decrease and increase with fuel Lewis number before the flammability limit is reached, while the radical Lewis number shows the opposite tendency. In addition, the relation between the standard flammability limit and the limit derived from the strained near stagnation flame is affected by the fuel Lewis number, but not by the radical Lewis number. Meanwhile, the flammability limit increases with decreased fuel Lewis number, but with increased radical Lewis number. Radical behaviours at flame front corresponding to flame bifurcation and extinction are also analysed in this work. It is shown that radical concentration at the flame front, under extinction stretch rate condition, increases with radical Lewis number but decreases with fuel Lewis number. It decreases with increased radiation loss.

Molecular mechanisms of D-cycloserine in facilitating fear extinction: insights from RNAseq.

PubMed

Malan-Müller, Stefanie; Fairbairn, Lorren; Daniels, Willie M U; Dashti, Mahjoubeh Jalali Sefid; Oakeley, Edward J; Altorfer, Marc; Kidd, Martin; Seedat, Soraya; Gamieldien, Junaid; Hemmings, Sîan Megan Joanna

2016-02-01

D-cycloserine (DCS) has been shown to be effective in facilitating fear extinction in animal and human studies, however the precise mechanisms whereby the co-administration of DCS and behavioural fear extinction reduce fear are still unclear. This study investigated the molecular mechanisms of intrahippocampally administered D-cycloserine in facilitating fear extinction in a contextual fear conditioning animal model. Male Sprague Dawley rats (n = 120) were grouped into four experimental groups (n = 30) based on fear conditioning and intrahippocampal administration of either DCS or saline. The light/dark avoidance test was used to differentiate maladapted (MA) (anxious) from well-adapted (WA) (not anxious) subgroups. RNA extracted from the left dorsal hippocampus was used for RNA sequencing and gene expression data was compared between six fear-conditioned + saline MA (FEAR + SALINE MA) and six fear-conditioned + DCS WA (FEAR + DCS WA) animals. Of the 424 significantly downregulated and 25 significantly upregulated genes identified in the FEAR + DCS WA group compared to the FEAR + SALINE MA group, 121 downregulated and nine upregulated genes were predicted to be relevant to fear conditioning and anxiety and stress-related disorders. The majority of downregulated genes transcribed immune, proinflammatory and oxidative stress systems molecules. These molecules mediate neuroinflammation and cause neuronal damage. DCS also regulated genes involved in learning and memory processes, and genes associated with anxiety, stress-related disorders and co-occurring diseases (e.g., cardiovascular diseases, digestive system diseases and nervous system diseases). Identifying the molecular underpinnings of DCS-mediated fear extinction brings us closer to understanding the process of fear extinction.

Antibiotic-induced population fluctuations and stochastic clearance of bacteria

PubMed Central

Le, Dai; Şimşek, Emrah; Chaudhry, Waqas

2018-01-01

Effective antibiotic use that minimizes treatment failures remains a challenge. A better understanding of how bacterial populations respond to antibiotics is necessary. Previous studies of large bacterial populations established the deterministic framework of pharmacodynamics. Here, characterizing the dynamics of population extinction, we demonstrated the stochastic nature of eradicating bacteria with antibiotics. Antibiotics known to kill bacteria (bactericidal) induced population fluctuations. Thus, at high antibiotic concentrations, the dynamics of bacterial clearance were heterogeneous. At low concentrations, clearance still occurred with a non-zero probability. These striking outcomes of population fluctuations were well captured by our probabilistic model. Our model further suggested a strategy to facilitate eradication by increasing extinction probability. We experimentally tested this prediction for antibiotic-susceptible and clinically-isolated resistant bacteria. This new knowledge exposes fundamental limits in our ability to predict bacterial eradication. Additionally, it demonstrates the potential of using antibiotic concentrations that were previously deemed inefficacious to eradicate bacteria. PMID:29508699

Historical data as a baseline for conservation: reconstructing long-term faunal extinction dynamics in Late Imperial–modern China

PubMed Central

Turvey, Samuel T.; Crees, Jennifer J.; Di Fonzo, Martina M. I.

2015-01-01

Extinction events typically represent extended processes of decline that cannot be reconstructed using short-term studies. Long-term archives are necessary to determine past baselines and the extent of human-caused biodiversity change, but the capacity of historical datasets to provide predictive power for conservation must be assessed within a robust analytical framework. Local Chinese gazetteers represent a more than 400-year country-level dataset containing abundant information on past environmental conditions and include extensive records of gibbons, which have a restricted present-day distribution but formerly occurred across much of China. Gibbons show pre-twentieth century range contraction, with significant fragmentation by the mid-eighteenth century and population loss escalating in the late nineteenth century. Isolated gibbon populations persisted for about 40 years before local extinction. Populations persisted for longer at higher elevations, and disappeared earlier from northern and eastern regions, with the biogeography of population loss consistent with the contagion model of range collapse in response to human demographic expansion spreading directionally across China. The long-term Chinese historical record can track extinction events and human interactions with the environment across much longer timescales than are usually addressed in ecology, contributing novel baselines for conservation and an increased understanding of extinction dynamics and species vulnerability or resilience to human pressures. PMID:26246553

Historical data as a baseline for conservation: reconstructing long-term faunal extinction dynamics in Late Imperial-modern China.

PubMed

Turvey, Samuel T; Crees, Jennifer J; Di Fonzo, Martina M I

2015-08-22

Extinction events typically represent extended processes of decline that cannot be reconstructed using short-term studies. Long-term archives are necessary to determine past baselines and the extent of human-caused biodiversity change, but the capacity of historical datasets to provide predictive power for conservation must be assessed within a robust analytical framework. Local Chinese gazetteers represent a more than 400-year country-level dataset containing abundant information on past environmental conditions and include extensive records of gibbons, which have a restricted present-day distribution but formerly occurred across much of China. Gibbons show pre-twentieth century range contraction, with significant fragmentation by the mid-eighteenth century and population loss escalating in the late nineteenth century. Isolated gibbon populations persisted for about 40 years before local extinction. Populations persisted for longer at higher elevations, and disappeared earlier from northern and eastern regions, with the biogeography of population loss consistent with the contagion model of range collapse in response to human demographic expansion spreading directionally across China. The long-term Chinese historical record can track extinction events and human interactions with the environment across much longer timescales than are usually addressed in ecology, contributing novel baselines for conservation and an increased understanding of extinction dynamics and species vulnerability or resilience to human pressures. © 2015 The Authors.

Evolutionary rescue from extinction is contingent on a lower rate of environmental change.

PubMed

Lindsey, Haley A; Gallie, Jenna; Taylor, Susan; Kerr, Benjamin

2013-02-28

The extinction rate of populations is predicted to rise under increasing rates of environmental change. If a population experiencing increasingly stressful conditions lacks appropriate phenotypic plasticity or access to more suitable habitats, then genetic change may be the only way to avoid extinction. Evolutionary rescue from extinction occurs when natural selection enriches a population for more stress-tolerant genetic variants. Some experimental studies have shown that lower rates of environmental change lead to more adapted populations or fewer extinctions. However, there has been little focus on the genetic changes that underlie evolutionary rescue. Here we demonstrate that some evolutionary trajectories are contingent on a lower rate of environmental change. We allowed hundreds of populations of Escherichia coli to evolve under variable rates of increase in concentration of the antibiotic rifampicin. We then genetically engineered all combinations of mutations from isolates evolved under lower rates of environmental change. By assessing fitness of these engineered strains across a range of drug concentrations, we show that certain genotypes are evolutionarily inaccessible under rapid environmental change. Rapidly deteriorating environments not only limit mutational opportunities by lowering population size, but they can also eliminate sets of mutations as evolutionary options. As anthropogenic activities are leading to environmental change at unprecedented rapidity, it is critical to understand how the rate of environmental change affects both demographic and genetic underpinnings of evolutionary rescue.

Eutrophication, microbial-sulfate reduction and mass extinctions

PubMed Central

Schobben, Martin; Stebbins, Alan; Ghaderi, Abbas; Strauss, Harald; Korn, Dieter; Korte, Christoph

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT In post-Cambrian time, life on Earth experienced 5 major extinction events, likely instigated by adverse environmental conditions. Biodiversity loss among marine taxa, for at least 3 of these mass extinction events (Late Devonian, end-Permian and end-Triassic), has been connected with widespread oxygen-depleted and sulfide-bearing marine water. Furthermore, geochemical and sedimentary evidence suggest that these events correlate with rather abrupt climate warming and possibly increased terrestrial weathering. This suggests that biodiversity loss may be triggered by mechanisms intrinsic to the Earth system, notably, the biogeochemical sulfur and carbon cycle. This climate warming feedback produces large-scale eutrophication on the continental shelf, which, in turn, expands oxygen minimum zones by increased respiration, which can turn to a sulfidic state by increased microbial-sulfate reduction due to increased availability of organic matter. A plankton community turnover from a high-diversity eukaryote to high-biomass bacterial dominated food web is the catalyst proposed in this anoxia-extinction scenario and stands in stark contrast to the postulated productivity collapse suggested for the end-Cretaceous mass extinction. This cascade of events is relevant for the future ocean under predicted greenhouse driven climate change. The exacerbation of anoxic “dead” zones is already progressing in modern oceanic environments, and this is likely to increase due to climate induced continental weathering and resulting eutrophication of the oceans. PMID:27066181

The Effects of Buoyancy and Dilution on the Structure and Lift-Off of Coflow Laminar Diffusion Flames

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walsh, Kevin T.; Long, Marshall B.; Smooke, Mitchell D.

1999-01-01

The ability to predict the coupled effects of complex transport phenomena with detailed chemical kinetics in diffusion flames is critical in the modeling of turbulent reacting flows and in understanding the processes by which soot formation and radiative transfer take place. In addition, an understanding of those factors that affect flame extinction in diffusion flames is critical in the suppression of fires and in improving engine efficiency. A goal of this work is to bring to microgravity flame studies the detailed experimental and numerical tools that have been used to study ground-based systems. This will lead to a more detailed understanding of the interaction of convection, diffusion and chemistry in a nonbuoyant environment. To better understand these phenomena, experimental and computational studies of a coflow laminar diffusion flame have been carried out. To date, these studies have focused on a single set of flow conditions, in which a nitrogen-diluted methane fuel stream (65% methane by volume) was surrounded by an air coflow, with exit velocities matched at 35 cm/s. Of particular interest is the change in flame shape due to the absence of buoyant forces, as well as the amount of diluent in the fuel stream and the coflow velocity. As a sensitive marker of changes in the flame shape, the number densities of excited-state CH (A(exp 2 delta) denoted CH*), and excited-state OH (A(exp 2 sigma, denoted OH*) are measured. CH* and OH* number densities are deconvoluted from line-of-sight chemiluminescence measurements made on the NASA KC135 reduced-gravity aircraft. Measured signal levels are calibrated, post-flight, with Rayleigh scattering. In extending the study to microgravity conditions, improvements to the computational model have been made and new calculations performed for a range of gravity conditions. In addition, modifications to the experimental approach were required as a consequence of the constraints imposed by existing microgravity facilities. Results from the computations and experiments are presented.

AIC and the challenge of complexity: A case study from ecology.

PubMed

Moll, Remington J; Steel, Daniel; Montgomery, Robert A

2016-12-01

Philosophers and scientists alike have suggested Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), and other similar model selection methods, show predictive accuracy justifies a preference for simplicity in model selection. This epistemic justification of simplicity is limited by an assumption of AIC which requires that the same probability distribution must generate the data used to fit the model and the data about which predictions are made. This limitation has been previously noted but appears to often go unnoticed by philosophers and scientists and has not been analyzed in relation to complexity. If predictions are about future observations, we argue that this assumption is unlikely to hold for models of complex phenomena. That in turn creates a practical limitation for simplicity's AIC-based justification because scientists modeling such phenomena are often interested in predicting the future. We support our argument with an ecological case study concerning the reintroduction of wolves into Yellowstone National Park, U.S.A. We suggest that AIC might still lend epistemic support for simplicity by leading to better explanations of complex phenomena. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling ecological traps for the control of feral pigs

PubMed Central

Dexter, Nick; McLeod, Steven R

2015-01-01

Ecological traps are habitat sinks that are preferred by dispersing animals but have higher mortality or reduced fecundity compared to source habitats. Theory suggests that if mortality rates are sufficiently high, then ecological traps can result in extinction. An ecological trap may be created when pest animals are controlled in one area, but not in another area of equal habitat quality, and when there is density-dependent immigration from the high-density uncontrolled area to the low-density controlled area. We used a logistic population model to explore how varying the proportion of habitat controlled, control mortality rate, and strength of density-dependent immigration for feral pigs could affect the long-term population abundance and time to extinction. Increasing control mortality, the proportion of habitat controlled and the strength of density-dependent immigration decreased abundance both within and outside the area controlled. At higher levels of these parameters, extinction was achieved for feral pigs. We extended the analysis with a more complex stochastic, interactive model of feral pig dynamics in the Australian rangelands to examine how the same variables as the logistic model affected long-term abundance in the controlled and uncontrolled area and time to extinction. Compared to the logistic model of feral pig dynamics, the stochastic interactive model predicted lower abundances and extinction at lower control mortalities and proportions of habitat controlled. To improve the realism of the stochastic interactive model, we substituted fixed mortality rates with a density-dependent control mortality function, empirically derived from helicopter shooting exercises in Australia. Compared to the stochastic interactive model with fixed mortality rates, the model with the density-dependent control mortality function did not predict as substantial decline in abundance in controlled or uncontrolled areas or extinction for any combination of variables. These models demonstrate that pest eradication is theoretically possible without the pest being controlled throughout its range because of density-dependent immigration into the area controlled. The stronger the density-dependent immigration, the better the overall control in controlled and uncontrolled habitat combined. However, the stronger the density-dependent immigration, the poorer the control in the area controlled. For feral pigs, incorporating environmental stochasticity improves the prospects for eradication, but adding a realistic density-dependent control function eliminates these prospects. PMID:26045954

Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe.

PubMed

Williams, Stephen E; Bolitho, Elizabeth E; Fox, Samantha

2003-09-22

It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change.

CSI 2264: Simultaneous optical and X-ray variability in pre-main sequence stars. I. Time resolved X-ray spectral analysis during optical dips and accretion bursts in stars with disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guarcello, M. G.; Flaccomio, E.; Micela, G.; Argiroffi, C.; Sciortino, S.; Venuti, L.; Stauffer, J.; Rebull, L.; Cody, A. M.

2017-06-01

Context. Pre-main sequence stars are variable sources. The main mechanisms responsible for their variability are variable extinction, unsteady accretion, and rotational modulation of both hot and dark photospheric spots and X-ray-active regions. In stars with disks, this variability is related to the morphology of the inner circumstellar region (≤0.1 AU) and that of the photosphere and corona, all impossible to be spatially resolved with present-day techniques. This has been the main motivation for the Coordinated Synoptic Investigation of NGC 2264, a set of simultaneous observations of NGC 2264 with 15 different telescopes. Aims: In this paper, we focus on the stars with disks. We analyze the X-ray spectral properties extracted during optical bursts and dips in order to unveil the nature of these phenomena. Stars without disks are studied in a companion paper. Methods: We analyze simultaneous CoRoT and Chandra/ACIS-I observations to search for coherent optical and X-ray flux variability in stars with disks. Then, stars are analyzed in two different samples. In stars with variable extinction, we look for a simultaneous increase of optical extinction and X-ray absorption during the optical dips; in stars with accretion bursts, we search for soft X-ray emission and increasing X-ray absorption during the bursts. Results: We find evidence for coherent optical and X-ray flux variability among the stars with variable extinction. In 9 of the 24 stars with optical dips, we observe a simultaneous increase of X-ray absorption and optical extinction. In seven dips, it is possible to calculate the NH/AV ratio in order to infer the composition of the obscuring material. In 5 of the 20 stars with optical accretion bursts, we observe increasing soft X-ray emission during the bursts that we associate to the emission of accreting gas. It is not surprising that these properties are not observed in all the stars with dips and bursts, since favorable geometric configurations are required. Conclusions: The observed variable absorption during the dips is mainly due to dust-free material in accretion streams. In stars with accretion bursts, we observe, on average, a larger soft X-ray spectral component not observed in non-accreting stars.

Proposed law of nature linking impacts, plume volcanism, and Milankovitch cycles to terrestrial vertebrate mass extinctions via greenhouse-embryo death coupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mclean, D. M.

1994-01-01

A greenhouse-physiological coupling killing mechanism active among mammals, birds, and reptiles has been identified. Operating via environmental thermal effects upon the maternal core-skin blood flow critical to the survival and development of embryos, it reduces the flow of blood to the uterine tract. Today, during hot summers, this phenomena kills embryos on a vast, global scale. Because of sensitivity of many mammals to modern heat, a major modern greenhouse could reduce population numbers on a global scale, and potentially trigger population collapses in the more vulnerable parts of the world. In the geological past, the killing mechanism has likely been triggered into action by greenhouse warming via impact events, plume volcanism, and Earth orbital variations (Milankovitch cycles). Earth's biosphere is maintained and molded by the flow of energy from the solar energy source to Earth and on to the space energy sink (SES). This SES energy flow maintains Earth's biosphere and its living components, as open, intermediate, dissipative, nonequilibrium systems whose states are dependent upon the rate of energy flowing through them. Greenhouse gases such as CO2 in the atmosphere influence the SES energy flow rate. Steady-state flow is necessary for global ecological stability (autopoiesis). Natural fluctuations of the C cycle such as rapid releases of CO2 from the mantle, or oceans, disrupt steady-state SES flow. These fluctuations constantly challenge the biosphere; slowdown of SES energy flow drives it toward thermodynamical equilibrium and stagnation. Fluctuations induced by impact event, mantle plume volcanism, and Milankovitch cycles can grow into structure-breaking waves triggering major perturbations of Earth's C cycle and mass extinctions. A major C cycle perturbation involves readjustment of the outer physiochemical spheres of the Earth: the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and lithosphere; and by necessity, the biosphere. A greenhouse, one manifestation of a major C cycle perturbation, is the most dangerous natural phenomenon that life on Earth can experience. Greenhouse conditions existed during the KT mass extinctions of 65 m.y. ago, and the Pleistocene-Holocene (P-H) mammalian extinctions of 10,000-12,000 yr ago. Coupling climatology to reproductive physiology via effects of ambient air temperature upon uterine blood flow to developing embryos accounts for the extinctions via established physiological principles.

Estimating rates of local extinction and colonization in colonial species and an extension to the metapopulation and community levels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbraud, C.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Hafner, H.

2003-01-01

Coloniality has mainly been studied from an evolutionary perspective, but relatively few studies have developed methods for modelling colony dynamics. Changes in number of colonies over time provide a useful tool for predicting and evaluating the responses of colonial species to management and to environmental disturbance. Probabilistic Markov process models have been recently used to estimate colony site dynamics using presence-absence data when all colonies are detected in sampling efforts. Here, we define and develop two general approaches for the modelling and analysis of colony dynamics for sampling situations in which all colonies are, and are not, detected. For both approaches, we develop a general probabilistic model for the data and then constrain model parameters based on various hypotheses about colony dynamics. We use Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to assess the adequacy of the constrained models. The models are parameterised with conditional probabilities of local colony site extinction and colonization. Presence-absence data arising from Pollock's robust capture-recapture design provide the basis for obtaining unbiased estimates of extinction, colonization, and detection probabilities when not all colonies are detected. This second approach should be particularly useful in situations where detection probabilities are heterogeneous among colony sites. The general methodology is illustrated using presence-absence data on two species of herons (Purple Heron, Ardea purpurea and Grey Heron, Ardea cinerea). Estimates of the extinction and colonization rates showed interspecific differences and strong temporal and spatial variations. We were also able to test specific predictions about colony dynamics based on ideas about habitat change and metapopulation dynamics. We recommend estimators based on probabilistic modelling for future work on colony dynamics. We also believe that this methodological framework has wide application to problems in animal ecology concerning metapopulation and community dynamics.

Ultraviolet imaging telescope and optical emission-line observations of H II regions in M81

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Jesse K.; Cheng, K.-P.; Bohlin, Ralph C.; Cornett, Robert H.; Hintzen, P. M. N.; O'Connell, Robert W.; Roberts, Morton S.; Smith, Andrew M.; Smith, Eric P.; Stecher, Theodore P.

1995-01-01

Images of the type Sab spiral galaxy M81 were obtained in far-UV and near-UV bands by the Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (UIT) during the Astro-1 Spacelab mission of 1990 December. Magnitudes in the two UV bands are determined for 52 H II regions from the catalog of Petit, Sivan, & Karachentsev (1988). Fluxes of the H-alpha and H-beta emission lines are determined from CCD images. Extinctions for the brightest H II regions are determined from observed Balmer decrements. Fainter H II regions are assigned the average of published radio-H-alpha extinctions for several bright H II regions. The radiative transfer models of Witt, Thronson, & Capuano (1992) are shown to predict a relationship between Balmer Decrement and H-alpha extinction consistent with observed line and radio fluxes for the brightest 7 H II regions and are used to estimate the UV extinction. Ratios of Lyman continuum with ratios predicted by model spectra computed for initial mass function (IMF) slope equal to -1.0 and stellar masses ranging from 5 to 120 solar mass. Ages and masses are estimated by comparing the H-alpha and far-UV fluxes and their ratio with the models. The total of the estimated stellar masses for the 52 H II regions is 1.4 x 10(exp 5) solar mass. The star-formation rate inferred for M81 from the observed UV and H-alpha fluxes is low for a spiral galaxy at approximately 0.13 solar mass/yr, but consistent with the low star-formation rates obtained by Kennicutt (1983) and Caldwell et al. (1991) for early-type spirals.

Comparison of self-administration behavior and responsiveness to drug-paired cues in rats running an alley for intravenous heroin and cocaine.

PubMed

Su, Zu-In; Wenzel, Jennifer; Baird, Rebeccah; Ettenberg, Aaron

2011-04-01

Evidence suggests that responsiveness to a drug-paired cue is predicted by the reinforcing magnitude of the drug during prior self-administration. It remains unclear, however, if this principle holds true when comparisons are made across drug reinforcers. The current study was therefore devised to test the hypothesis that differences in the animals' responsiveness to a cocaine- or heroin-paired cue presented during extinction would reflect differences in the patterns of prior cocaine and heroin runway self-administration. Rats ran a straight alley for single intravenous injections of either heroin (0.1 mg/kg/inj) or cocaine (1.0 mg/kg/inj) each paired with a distinct olfactory cue. Animals experienced 15 trials with each drug reinforcer in a counterbalanced manner. Start latencies, run times, and retreat behaviors (a form of approach-avoidance conflict) provided behavioral indices of the subjects' motivation to seek the reinforcer on each trial. Responsiveness to each drug-paired cue was assessed after 7, 14, or 21 days of non-reinforced extinction trials. Other animals underwent conditioned place preference (CPP) testing to ensure that the two drug reinforcers were capable of producing drug-cue associations. While both drugs produced comparable CPPs, heroin served as a stronger incentive stimulus in the runway as evidenced by faster start and run times and fewer retreats. In contrast, cocaine- but not heroin-paired cues produced increases in drug-seeking behavior during subsequent extinction trials. The subjects' responsiveness to drug-paired cues during extinction was not predicted by differences in the motivation to seek heroin versus cocaine during prior drug self-administration.

Lesions of the lateral habenula facilitate active avoidance learning and threat extinction.

PubMed

Song, Mihee; Jo, Yong Sang; Lee, Yeon-Kyung; Choi, June-Seek

2017-02-01

The lateral habenula (LHb) is an epithalamic brain structure that provides strong projections to midbrain monoaminergic systems that are involved in motivation, emotion, and reinforcement learning. LHb neurons are known to convey information about aversive outcomes and negative prediction errors, suggesting a role in learning from aversive events. To test this idea, we examined the effects of electrolytic lesions of the LHb on signaled two-way active avoidance learning in which rats were trained to avoid an unconditioned stimulus (US) by taking a proactive shuttling response to an auditory conditioned stimulus (CS). The lesioned animals learned the avoidance response significantly faster than the control groups. In a separate experiment, we also investigated whether the LHb contributes to Pavlovian threat (fear) conditioning and extinction. Following paired presentations of the CS and the US, LHb-lesioned animals showed normal acquisition of conditioned response (CR) measured with freezing. However, extinction of the CR in the subsequent CS-only session was significantly faster. The enhanced performance in avoidance learning and in threat extinction jointly suggests that the LHb normally plays an inhibitory role in learning driven by absence of aversive outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.