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Sample records for extinctions models chronologies

  1. Explaining the Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions: Models, chronologies, and assumptions

    PubMed Central

    Brook, Barry W.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

    2002-01-01

    Understanding of the Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions has been advanced recently by the application of simulation models and new developments in geochronological dating. Together these have been used to posit a rapid demise of megafauna due to over-hunting by invading humans. However, we demonstrate that the results of these extinction models are highly sensitive to implicit assumptions concerning the degree of prey naivety to human hunters. In addition, we show that in Greater Australia, where the extinctions occurred well before the end of the last Ice Age (unlike the North American situation), estimates of the duration of coexistence between humans and megafauna remain imprecise. Contrary to recent claims, the existing data do not prove the “blitzkrieg” model of overkill. PMID:12417761

  2. Updating Martin's global extinction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillespie, Richard

    2008-12-01

    Australia has been cited as a weak link in anthropogenic models of megafauna extinction, but recent work suggests instead that the evidence for rapid extinction shortly after human arrival is robust. The global model is revisited, based on the contention that late Pleistocene megafauna extinctions took place rapidly on islands, and some islands (such as Australia and the Americas) are much larger than others. Modern dating methods are increasingly able to refine chronologies, and careful scrutiny suggests that hundreds of dates should be deleted from archives. An updated summary of results from New Zealand, North America and Australia is presented, with a brief discussion on why temperate refugia offering protection from climate change ultimately did not work, strongly supporting the global extinction hypothesis pioneered by Paul Martin.

  3. A new chronology for the end-Triassic mass extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deenen, M. H. L.; Ruhl, M.; Bonis, N. R.; Krijgsman, W.; Kuerschner, W. M.; Reitsma, M.; van Bergen, M. J.

    2010-03-01

    The transition from the Triassic to Jurassic Period, initiating the 'Age of the dinosaurs', approximately 200 Ma, is marked by a profound mass extinction with more than 50% genus loss in both marine and continental realms. This event closely coincides with a period of extensive volcanism in the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) associated with the initial break-up of Pangaea but a causal relationship is still debated. The Triassic-Jurassic (T-J) boundary is recently proposed in the marine record at the first occurrence datum of Jurassic ammonites, post-dating the extinction interval that concurs with two distinct perturbations in the carbon isotope record. The continental record shows a major palynological turnover together with a prominent change in tetrapod taxa, but a direct link to the marine events is still equivocal. Here we develop an accurate chronostratigraphic framework for the T-J boundary interval and establish detailed trans-Atlantic and marine-continental correlations by integrating astrochronology, paleomagnetism, basalt geochemistry and geobiology. We show that the oldest CAMP basalts are diachronous by 20 kyr across the Atlantic Ocean, and that these two volcanic pulses coincide with the end-Triassic extinction interval in the marine realm. Our results support the hypotheses of Phanerozoic mass extinctions resulting from emplacement of Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs) and provide crucial time constraints for numerical modelling of Triassic-Jurassic climate change and global carbon-cycle perturbations.

  4. A high-precision chronology for the rapid extinction of New Zealand moa (Aves, Dinornithiformes)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, George L. W.; Wheeler, Andrew B.; Wood, Jamie R.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.

    2014-12-01

    Megafaunal extinction followed the prehistoric human settlement of islands across the globe, but the exact duration and dynamics of the extinction processes are difficult to determine. The New Zealand moa (Aves, Dinornithiformes) are a prime example, where, despite an extensive fossil and archaeological record, debate continues about their extinction chronology and how extinction timings varied among regions and species. We apply probabilistic sightings methods to 111 high-quality radiocarbon dates (from a pool of 653 dates) on moa remains from natural and archaeological sites to provide a high-resolution spatio-temporal chronology of moa extinction. We interpret this alongside an estimated time for the onset of hunting pressure, obtained by applying the same methods to the most reliable proxies for initial human settlement of New Zealand: coprolites of and seeds gnawed by the commensal Pacific rat (Rattus exulans). By comparing local and national extinction times, we discriminate between the point at which hunting stopped (economic extinction) and the total extinction of moa (ca 150 and 200 years after settlement, respectively). Extinction occurred contemporaneously at sites separated by hundreds of kilometres. There was little difference between the extinction times of the smallest (20-50 kg) and largest (200+ kg) moa species. Our results demonstrate how rapidly megafauna were exterminated from even large, topographically- and ecologically-diverse islands such as New Zealand, and highlight the fragility of such ecosystems in the face of human impacts.

  5. Extinction chronology of the cave lion Panthera spelaea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stuart, Anthony J.; Lister, Adrian M.

    2011-08-01

    The cave lion, Panthera spelaea, was widespread across northern Eurasia and Alaska/Yukon during the Late Pleistocene. Both morphology and DNA indicate an animal distinct from modern lions (probably at the species level) so that its disappearance in the Late Pleistocene should be treated as a true extinction. New AMS radiocarbon dates directly on cave lion from across its range, together with published dates from other studies - totalling 111 dates - indicate extinction across Eurasia in the interval ca. 14-14.5 cal ka BP, and in Alaska/Yukon about a thousand years later. It is likely that its extinction occurred directly or indirectly in response to the climatic warming that occurred ca. 14.7 cal ka BP at the onset of Greenland Interstadial 1, accompanied by a spread of shrubs and trees and reduction in open habitats. Possibly there was also a concomitant reduction in abundance of available prey, although most of its probable prey species survived substantially later. At present it is unclear whether human expansion in the Lateglacial might have played a role in cave lion extinction. Gaps in the temporal pattern of dates suggest earlier temporary contractions of range, ca. 40-35 cal ka BP in Siberia (during MIS 3) and ca. 25-20 cal ka BP in Europe (during the 'Last Glacial Maximum'), but further dates are required to corroborate these. The Holocene expansion of modern lion ( Panthera leo) into south-west Asia and south-east Europe re-occupied part of the former range of P. spelaea, but the Late Pleistocene temporal and geographical relationships of the two species are unknown.

  6. Extinction chronology of the woolly rhinoceros Coelodonta antiquitatis in the context of late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions in northern Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stuart, Anthony J.; Lister, Adrian M.

    2012-09-01

    Megafaunal extinctions in northern Eurasia (excluding Mediterranean islands) since the Last Interglacial claimed about 37% of species with body weights >44 kg. Here we review the dating evidence for the timings of these extinctions, which were staggered over tens of millennia. Moreover, individual species disappeared at different times in different geographical areas. For example, cave bear probably disappeared ca. 30.5-28.5 ka, at approximately the onset of GS-3 (beginning of 'LGM'), whereas cave lion survived until the Lateglacial ca 14 ka. Others survived into the Holocene: woolly mammoth until ca 10.7 ka in the New Siberian Islands and ca 4 ka on Wrangel Island, giant deer to at least 7.7 ka in western Siberia and European Russia. It is evident that climatic and vegetational changes had major impacts on species' ranges, and moreover the contrasting chronologies and geographical range contractions are consistent with environmental drivers relating to their differing ecologies. However, the possible role of humans in this process has still to be satisfactorily explored. We present a detailed review of the radiocarbon record and extinction chronology of an exclusively northern Eurasian species, the woolly rhinoceros Coelodonta antiquitatis, an animal adapted to feeding on low-growing herbaceous vegetation and a dry climate with minimal snowfall. During the Last Glacial the overall (time-averaged) range of C. antiquitatis extended across most of northern Eurasia, but the species failed to reach North America. On the basis of 233 ultrafiltered AMS radiocarbon dates, together with 50 others which pass our auditing criteria, we reconstruct a detailed chronology for this species. C. antiquitatis was widespread over most of the time span covered by radiocarbon dating, but from ca 35 ka (calibrated) it apparently contracted towards the east, culminating in its probable extinction ca 14 ka, with the latest dates from north-eastern Siberia. It disappeared from Britain, at

  7. A model of mass extinction.

    PubMed

    Newman, M E

    1997-12-01

    In the last few years a number of authors have suggested that evolution may be a so-called self-organized critical phenomenon, and that critical processes might have a significant effect on the dynamics of ecosystems. In particular it has been suggested that mass extinction may arise through a purely biotic mechanism as the result of "coevolutionary avalanches". In this paper we first explore the empirical evidence which has been put forward in favor of this conclusion. The data center principally around the existence of power-law functional forms in the distribution of the sizes of extinction events and other quantities. We then propose a new mathematical model of mass extinction which does not rely on coevolutionary effects and in which extinction is caused entirely by the action of environmental stress on species. In combination with a simple model of species adaption we show that this process can account for all the observed data without the need to invoke coevolution and critical processes. The model also makes some independent predictions, such as the existence of "aftershock" extinctions in the aftermath of large mass extinction events, which should in theory be testable against the fossil record.

  8. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  9. Chronology and causes of the extinction of the Lava Mouse, Malpaisomys insularis (Rodentia: Muridae) from the Canary Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rando, Juan Carlos; Alcover, Josep Antoni; Navarro, Juan Francisco; García-Talavera, Francisco; Hutterer, Rainer; Michaux, Jacques

    2008-09-01

    Understanding late Holocene extinctions on islands requires accurate chronologies for all relevant events, including multiple colonisations by humans and the introduction of alien species. The most widely held hypothesis on the causes of Holocene island vertebrate extinctions incorporates human impacts, although climatic-related hypotheses cannot be excluded. Both hypotheses have been suggested to account for the extinction of the endemic Lava Mouse, Malpaisomys insularis from the Canary Islands. Here we present the first accelerator mass spectrometer (AMS) 14C ages from collagen of M. insularis bones from ancient owl pellets collected at Fuerteventura (Canary Islands, eastern Atlantic Ocean). These new dates contribute to an understanding of the extinction of this species. We are able to exclude climatic causes, predation by invasive species, and competition with the house mouse, Mus musculus. The arrival of Europeans in the Canary Islands correlates with the extinction of Malpaisomys. The introduction of rats, Rattus spp., together with their parasites and diseases, emerges as the most reasonable hypothesis explaining the extinction of M. insularis.

  10. Stochastic models of population extinction.

    PubMed

    Ovaskainen, Otso; Meerson, Baruch

    2010-11-01

    Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on biotic and abiotic factors. Classical work showed that demographic stochasticity causes the mean time to extinction to increase exponentially with population size, whereas variation in environmental conditions can lead to a power-law scaling. Recent work has focused especially on the influence of the autocorrelation structure ('color') of environmental noise. In theoretical physics, there is a burst of research activity in analyzing large fluctuations in stochastic population dynamics. This research provides powerful tools for determining extinction times and characterizing the pathway to extinction. It yields, therefore, sharp insights into extinction processes and has great potential for further applications in theoretical biology.

  11. Vaccine enhanced extinction in stochastic epidemic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Billings, Lora; Mier-Y-Teran, Luis; Schwartz, Ira

    2012-02-01

    We address the problem of developing new and improved stochastic control methods that enhance extinction in disease models. In finite populations, extinction occurs when fluctuations owing to random transitions act as an effective force that drives one or more components or species to vanish. Using large deviation theory, we identify the location of the optimal path to extinction in epidemic models with stochastic vaccine controls. These models not only capture internal noise from random transitions, but also external fluctuations, such as stochastic vaccination scheduling. We quantify the effectiveness of the randomly applied vaccine over all possible distributions by using the location of the optimal path, and we identify the most efficient control algorithms. We also discuss how mean extinction times scale with epidemiological and social parameters.

  12. Extinction in the Lotka-Volterra model.

    PubMed

    Parker, Matthew; Kamenev, Alex

    2009-08-01

    Birth-death processes often exhibit an oscillatory behavior. We investigate a particular case where the oscillation cycles are marginally stable on the mean-field level. An iconic example of such a system is the Lotka-Volterra model of predator-prey interaction. Fluctuation effects due to discreteness of the populations destroy the mean-field stability and eventually drive the system toward extinction of one or both species. We show that the corresponding extinction time scales as a certain power-law of the population sizes. This behavior should be contrasted with the extinction of models stable in the mean-field approximation. In the latter case the extinction time scales exponentially with size.

  13. Modelling the extinction of Steller's sea cow

    PubMed Central

    Turvey, S.T; Risley, C.L

    2005-01-01

    Steller's sea cow, a giant sirenian discovered in 1741 and extinct by 1768, is one of the few megafaunal mammal species to have died out during the historical period. The species is traditionally considered to have been exterminated by ‘blitzkrieg’-style direct overharvesting for food, but it has also been proposed that its extinction resulted from a sea urchin population explosion triggered by extirpation of local sea otter populations that eliminated the shallow-water kelps on which sea cows fed. Hunting records from eighteenth century Russian expeditions to the Commander Islands, in conjunction with life-history data extrapolated from dugongs, permit modelling of sea cow extinction dynamics. Sea cows were massively and wastefully overexploited, being hunted at over seven times the sustainable limit, and suggesting that the initial Bering Island sea cow population must have been higher than suggested by previous researchers to allow the species to survive even until 1768. Environmental changes caused by sea otter declines are unlikely to have contributed to this extinction event. This indicates that megafaunal extinctions can be effected by small bands of hunters using pre-industrial technologies, and highlights the catastrophic impact of wastefulness when overexploiting resources mistakenly perceived as ‘infinite’. PMID:17148336

  14. Modelling the extinction of Steller's sea cow.

    PubMed

    Turvey, S T; Risley, C L

    2006-03-22

    Steller's sea cow, a giant sirenian discovered in 1741 and extinct by 1768, is one of the few megafaunal mammal species to have died out during the historical period. The species is traditionally considered to have been exterminated by 'blitzkrieg'-style direct overharvesting for food, but it has also been proposed that its extinction resulted from a sea urchin population explosion triggered by extirpation of local sea otter populations that eliminated the shallow-water kelps on which sea cows fed. Hunting records from eighteenth century Russian expeditions to the Commander Islands, in conjunction with life-history data extrapolated from dugongs, permit modelling of sea cow extinction dynamics. Sea cows were massively and wastefully overexploited, being hunted at over seven times the sustainable limit, and suggesting that the initial Bering Island sea cow population must have been higher than suggested by previous researchers to allow the species to survive even until 1768. Environmental changes caused by sea otter declines are unlikely to have contributed to this extinction event. This indicates that megafaunal extinctions can be effected by small bands of hunters using pre-industrial technologies, and highlights the catastrophic impact of wastefulness when overexploiting resources mistakenly perceived as 'infinite'.

  15. Mathematical Modeling of Extinction of Inhomogeneous Populations

    PubMed Central

    Karev, G.P.; Kareva, I.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction. Unlike the more traditional exponential models, the life duration of sub-exponential models is finite. In the first model, the population is assumed to be composed clones that are independent from each other. In the second model, we assume that the size of the population as a whole decreases according to the sub-exponential equation. We then investigate the “unobserved heterogeneity”, i.e. the underlying inhomogeneous population model, and calculate the distribution of frequencies of clones for both models. We show that the dynamics of frequencies in the first model is governed by the principle of minimum of Tsallis information loss. In the second model, the notion of “internal population time” is proposed; with respect to the internal time, the dynamics of frequencies is governed by the principle of minimum of Shannon information loss. The results of this analysis show that the principle of minimum of information loss is the underlying law for the evolution of a broad class of models of population extinction. Finally, we propose a possible application of this modeling framework to mechanisms underlying time perception. PMID:27090117

  16. Biogeochemical modeling at mass extinction boundaries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rampino, M. R.; Caldeira, K. G.

    1991-01-01

    The causes of major mass extinctions is a subject of considerable interest to those concerned with the history and evolution of life on earth. The primary objectives of the proposed plan of research are: (1) to develop quantitative time-dependent biogeochemical cycle models, coupled with an ocean atmosphere in order to improve the understanding of global scale physical, chemical, and biological processes that control the distribution of elements important for life at times of mass extinctions; and (2) to develop a comprehensive data base of the best available geochemical, isotopic, and other relevant geologic data from sections across mass extinction boundaries. These data will be used to constrain and test the biogeochemical model. These modeling experiments should prove useful in: (1) determining the possible cause(s) of the environmental changes seen at bio-event boundaries; (2) identifying and quantifying little-known feedbacks among the oceans, atmosphere, and biosphere; and (3) providing additional insights into the possible responses of the earth system to perturbations of various timescales. One of the best known mass extinction events marks the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary (66 Myr ago). Data from the K/T boundary are used here to constrain a newly developed time-dependent biogeochemical cycle model that is designed to study transient behavior of the earth system. Model results predict significant fluctuations in ocean alkalinity, atmospheric CO2, and global temperatures caused by extinction of calcareous plankton and reduction in the sedimentation rates of pelagic carbonates and organic carbon. Oxygen-isotome and other paleoclimatic data from K/T time provide some evidence that such climatic fluctuations may have occurred, but stabilizing feedbacks may have acted to reduce the ocean alkalinity and carbon dioxide fluctuations.

  17. Extinction models for cancer stem cell therapy

    PubMed Central

    Sehl, Mary; Zhou, Hua; Sinsheimer, Janet S.; Lange, Kenneth L.

    2012-01-01

    Cells with stem cell-like properties are now viewed as initiating and sustaining many cancers. This suggests that cancer can be cured by driving these cancer stem cells to extinction. The problem with this strategy is that ordinary stem cells are apt to be killed in the process. This paper sets bounds on the killing differential (difference between death rates of cancer stem cells and normal stem cells) that must exist for the survival of an adequate number of normal stem cells. Our main tools are birth–death Markov chains in continuous time. In this framework, we investigate the extinction times of cancer stem cells and normal stem cells. Application of extreme value theory from mathematical statistics yields an accurate asymptotic distribution and corresponding moments for both extinction times. We compare these distributions for the two cell populations as a function of the killing rates. Perhaps a more telling comparison involves the number of normal stem cells NH at the extinction time of the cancer stem cells. Conditioning on the asymptotic time to extinction of the cancer stem cells allows us to calculate the asymptotic mean and variance of NH. The full distribution of NH can be retrieved by the finite Fourier transform and, in some parameter regimes, by an eigenfunction expansion. Finally, we discuss the impact of quiescence (the resting state) on stem cell dynamics. Quiescence can act as a sanctuary for cancer stem cells and imperils the proposed therapy. We approach the complication of quiescence via multitype branching process models and stochastic simulation. Improvements to the τ-leaping method of stochastic simulation make it a versatile tool in this context. We conclude that the proposed therapy must target quiescent cancer stem cells as well as actively dividing cancer stem cells. The current cancer models demonstrate the virtue of attacking the same quantitative questions from a variety of modeling, mathematical, and computational perspectives

  18. Chronology protection in Galileon models and massive gravity

    SciTech Connect

    Burrage, Clare; Rham, Claudia de; Heisenberg, Lavinia; Tolley, Andrew J. E-mail: claudia.deRham@case.edu E-mail: andrew.j.tolley@case.edu

    2012-07-01

    Galileon models are a class of effective field theories that have recently received much attention. They arise in the decoupling limit of theories of massive gravity, and in some cases they have been treated in their own right as scalar field theories with a specific nonlinearly realized global symmetry (Galilean transformation). It is well known that in the presence of a source, these Galileon theories admit superluminal propagating solutions, implying that as quantum field theories they must admit a different notion of causality than standard local Lorentz invariant theories. We show that in these theories it is easy to construct closed timelike curves (CTCs) within the naive regime of validity of the effective field theory. However, on closer inspection we see that the CTCs could never arise since the Galileon inevitably becomes infinitely strongly coupled at the onset of the formation of a CTC. This implies an infinite amount of backreaction, first on the background for the Galileon field, signaling the break down of the effective field theory, and subsequently on the spacetime geometry, forbidding the formation of the CTC. Furthermore the background solution required to create CTCs becomes unstable with an arbitrarily fast decay time. Thus Galileon theories satisfy a direct analogue of Hawking's chronology protection conjecture.

  19. Late Quaternary cave bears and brown bears in Europe: implications for distribution, chronology, and extinction based on a multidisciplinary approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pacher, Martina

    2010-05-01

    Cave bear remains are one of the most numerous fossils found in European caves. Despite their frequency of occurrence, many aspects of cave bear palaeontology still remain poorly understood. New methodological approaches and ongoing studies led to controversial results and discussion about its taxonomy, palaeoecology, and final extinction. Are we dealing with one single or several species of cave bears? Was cave bear exclusively vegetarian or after all more omnivorous? Did he go extinct before or after the Late Glacial Maximum? Was cave bear restricted to Europe or did he also occur in Asia? Late Pleistocene brown bears, on the other hand, are often rare and little is known about the possible co-occurrence of cave and brown bears during the Late Pleistocene. Based on direct radiocarbon dates the distribution pattern of both, cave and brown bears is reconstructed during the Late Pleistocene in Europe. In addition, the reasons for the achieved pattern will be tested leading to the main question - why did cave bear become extinct while brown bears survived until today? To answer this question palaeobiological data of Late Pleistocene cave and brown bears will be tested against results from isotope analyses, while aDNA data may contribute to the question of distinct local population or even species of bears. The current state of evidence will be presented and on the basis of resulting pattern implications for further multi-disciplinary studies will be discussed.

  20. Alternative wind power modeling methods using chronological and load duration curve production cost models

    SciTech Connect

    Milligan, M R

    1996-04-01

    As an intermittent resource, capturing the temporal variation in windpower is an important issue in the context of utility production cost modeling. Many of the production cost models use a method that creates a cumulative probability distribution that is outside the time domain. The purpose of this report is to examine two production cost models that represent the two major model types: chronological and load duration cure models. This report is part of the ongoing research undertaken by the Wind Technology Division of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in utility modeling and wind system integration.

  1. Modeling extinction risk of endemic birds of mainland china.

    PubMed

    Chen, Youhua

    2013-01-01

    The extinction risk of endemic birds of mainland China was modeled over evolutionary time. Results showed that extinction risk of endemic birds in mainland China always tended to be similar within subclades over the evolutionary time of species divergence, and the overall evolution of extinction risk of species presented a conservatism pattern, as evidenced by the disparity-through-time plot. A constant-rate evolutionary model was the best one to quantify the evolution of extinction risk of endemic birds of mainland China. Thus, there was no rate shifting pattern for the evolution of extinction risk of Chinese endemic birds over time. In a summary, extinction risk of endemic birds of mainland China is systematically quantified under the evolutionary framework in the present work.

  2. Modelling of Dust Extinction through Dark Clouds: Small Scale Structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clemens, D.; Lada, C.

    1993-12-01

    In order to understand some curious effects discovered in analyzing our deep JHK near-infrared survey of the background stars probing the IC 5146 dark cloud complex (Lada, Lada, Clemens, & Bally 1993), we have constructed a simple model of the dust extinction through a molecular cloud. The effect noticed involved a correlation between the dispersion of the E(H-K) based estimate of A_V, when the stellar estimates of E(H-K) were binned into arcmin sized bins, with the mean A_V computed for those bins. The sense of the correlation is that the dispersion of the extinction rises with the extinction in a nearly linear fashion. Further, the dispersion of the dispersion also rises with extinction. Our model was constructed to try to understand the origin of this unexpected behavior. The model consists of a Poisson generator to populate a bin with stars and various extinction generating functions to add extinction to each star. Additionally, measurement noise and varying amounts of foreground star contamination are added to simulate the actual observations. Remarkably, this simple model is able to rule out several cloud structure models, including uniform extinction across an arcmin sized bin and the case of dense clumplets (rocks) embedded in a low extinction medium. We show that a power law parameterization of the extinction variation with position across a bin is able to fully reproduce the observations for a fairly robust set of power law indices. We also show that foreground star contamination plus any simple extinction model cannot reproduce the observations, while foreground star contamination does not appreciably affect the power law extinction model for foreground stellar fractions less than 30 - 50% of the total stellar content.

  3. Population extinction in an inhomogeneous host-pathogen model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagarti, Trilochan

    2016-01-01

    We study inhomogeneous host-pathogen dynamics to model the global amphibian population extinction in a lake basin system. The lake basin system is modeled as quenched disorder. In this model we show that once the pathogen arrives at the lake basin it spreads from one lake to another, eventually spreading to the entire lake basin system in a wave like pattern. The extinction time has been found to depend on the steady state host population and pathogen growth rate. Linear estimate of the extinction time is computed. The steady state host population shows a threshold behavior in the interaction strength for a given growth rate.

  4. MODELING GALACTIC EXTINCTION WITH DUST AND 'REAL' POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS

    SciTech Connect

    Mulas, Giacomo; Casu, Silvia; Cecchi-Pestellini, Cesare; Zonca, Alberto E-mail: silvia@oa-cagliari.inaf.it E-mail: azonca@oa-cagliari.inaf.it

    2013-07-01

    We investigate the remarkable apparent variety of galactic extinction curves by modeling extinction profiles with core-mantle grains and a collection of single polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Our aim is to translate a synthetic description of dust into physically well-grounded building blocks through the analysis of a statistically relevant sample of different extinction curves. All different flavors of observed extinction curves, ranging from the average galactic extinction curve to virtually 'bumpless' profiles, can be described by the present model. We prove that a mixture of a relatively small number (54 species in 4 charge states each) of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons can reproduce the features of the extinction curve in the ultraviolet, dismissing an old objection to the contribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to the interstellar extinction curve. Despite the large number of free parameters (at most the 54 Multiplication-Sign 4 column densities of each species in each ionization state included in the molecular ensemble plus the 9 parameters defining the physical properties of classical particles), we can strongly constrain some physically relevant properties such as the total number of C atoms in all species and the mean charge of the mixture. Such properties are found to be largely independent of the adopted dust model whose variation provides effects that are orthogonal to those brought about by the molecular component. Finally, the fitting procedure, together with some physical sense, suggests (but does not require) the presence of an additional component of chemically different very small carbonaceous grains.

  5. Network model of fear extinction and renewal functional pathways.

    PubMed

    Bruchey, A K; Shumake, J; Gonzalez-Lima, F

    2007-03-16

    The objective of this study was to examine the opposite behavior responses of conditioned fear extinction and renewal and how they are represented by network interactions between brain regions. This work is a continuation of a series of brain mapping studies of various inhibitory phenomena, including conditioned inhibition, blocking and extinction. A tone-footshock fear conditioning paradigm in rats was used, followed by extinction and testing in two different contexts. Fluorodeoxyglucose autoradiography was used to compare mean regional brain activity and interregional correlations resulting from the presentation of the extinguished tone in or out of the extinction context. A confirmatory structural equation model, constructed from a neural network proposed to underlie fear extinction, showed a reversal from negative regional interactions during extinction recall to positive interactions during fear renewal. Additionally, the magnitude of direct effects was different between groups, reflecting a change in the strength of the influences conveyed through those pathways. The results suggest that the extinguished tone encountered outside of the extinction context recruits auditory and limbic areas, which in turn influence the interactions of the infralimbic cortex with the amygdala and ventrolateral periaqueductal gray. Interestingly, the results also suggest that two independent pathways influence conditioned freezing: one from the central amygdaloid nucleus and the other from the infralimbic cortex directly to the ventrolateral periaqueductal gray.

  6. Unusual Dynamics of Extinction in a Simple Ecological Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sinha, Somdatta; Parthasarathy, S.

    1996-02-01

    Studies on natural populations and harvesting biological resources have led to the view, commonly held, that (i) populations exhibiting chaotic oscillations run a high risk of extinction; and (ii) a decrease in emigration / exploitation may reduce the risk of extinction. Here we describe a simple ecological model with emigration / depletion that shows behavior in contrast to this. This model displays unusual dynamics of extinction and survival, where populations growing beyond a critical rate can persist within a band of high depletion rates, whereas extinction occurs for lower depletion rates. Though prior to extinction at lower depletion rates the population exhibits chaotic dynamics with large amplitudes of variation and very low minima, at higher depletion rates the population persists at chaos but with reduced variation and increased minima. For still higher values, within the band of persistence, the dynamics show period reversal leading to stability. These results illustrate that chaos does not necessarily lead to population extinction. In addition, the persistence of populations at high depletion rates has important implications in the considerations of strategies for the management of biological resources.

  7. Climate modelling of mass-extinction events: a review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feulner, Georg

    2009-07-01

    Despite tremendous interest in the topic and decades of research, the origins of the major losses of biodiversity in the history of life on Earth remain elusive. A variety of possible causes for these mass-extinction events have been investigated, including impacts of asteroids or comets, large-scale volcanic eruptions, effects from changes in the distribution of continents caused by plate tectonics, and biological factors, to name but a few. Many of these suggested drivers involve or indeed require changes of Earth's climate, which then affect the biosphere of our planet, causing a global reduction in the diversity of biological species. It can be argued, therefore, that a detailed understanding of these climatic variations and their effects on ecosystems are prerequisites for a solution to the enigma of biological extinctions. Apart from investigations of the paleoclimate data of the time periods of mass extinctions, climate-modelling experiments should be able to shed some light on these dramatic events. Somewhat surprisingly, however, only a few comprehensive modelling studies of the climate changes associated with extinction events have been undertaken. These studies will be reviewed in this paper. Furthermore, the role of modelling in extinction research in general and suggestions for future research are discussed.

  8. Modelling of dead carbon fraction in speleothems: a step towards reliable speleothem 14C-chronologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lechleitner, Franziska A.; Jamieson, Robert A.; McIntyre, Cameron; Baldini, Lisa M.; Baldini, James U. L.; Eglinton, Timothy I.

    2015-04-01

    Over the past two decades, speleothems have become one of the most versatile and promising archives for the study of past continental climate. Very precise absolute dating is often possible using the U-Th method, resulting in paleoclimate records of exceptional resolution and accuracy. However, not all speleothems are amenable to this dating method for a variety of reasons (e.g. low U concentrations, high detrital Th etc). This has lead researchers to exclude many otherwise suitable speleothems and cave sites from further investigation. 14C-dating of speleothems has so far not been applicable, due to the 'dead carbon' problem. As drip water percolates through the karst, dissolving CaCO3, a variable amount of 14C-dead carbon is added to the solution. This results in a temporally variable and site-specific reservoir effect, ultimately undermining the development of speleothem 14C -chronologies. However, a number of recent studies have shown a clear link between karst hydrology and associated proxies (e.g., Mg/Ca and δ13C) and this 'dead carbon fraction' (DCF). We take advantage of this relationship to model DCF and its changes using Mg/Ca, δ13C and 14C data from published speleothem records. Using one record for calibration purposes, we build a transfer function for the DCF in relation to δ13C and Mg/Ca, which we then apply to other 14C records. Initial model results are promising; we are able to reconstruct general long-term average DCF within uncertainties of the calculated DCF from the U-Th chronology. Large shifts in DCF related to hydrology are also often detected. In a second step, we apply the model to a speleothem from southern Poland, which so far could not be dated, due to very low U-concentrations. To construct a 14C chronology, the stalagmite was sampled at 5 mm intervals. CaCO3 powders were graphitized and measured by Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (MICADAS) at ETH Zurich. Additional high-resolution (0.1 mm/sample) 14C measurements were performed on

  9. Extinctions and taxonomy in a trophic model of coevolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camacho, Juan; Solé, Ricard V.

    2000-07-01

    We investigate the statistics of extinction sizes and the taxonomy in a trophic model of evolution recently proposed [Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 652 (1999)]. By further exploring the parameters of this model, we find that the distribution of extinction sizes N(s) shows typically a characteristic maximum before developing the power-law behavior N(s)~s-α with α~2, in agreement with empirical observations. Furthermore, the derivation of the α=-2 exponent given by Drossel [Phys. Rev. Lett. 81, 5011 (1998)] for this model is completed. The extinction sizes in each trophic level are also analyzed; one finds that at the fourth level and up (l>=4) the extinction size statistics is a power law with exponent αl~=1.4, and exponential-like at the second level, also in agreement with some empirical data not previously explained by current models. On the other hand, in contrast to the observed power-law distribution of the number of species in genera, numerical simulations yield an exponential law. A modification of the model is presented that provides an approximate potential behavior for taxonomy, and some consequences for future modeling are outlined.

  10. Fluctuations in epidemic modeling - disease extinction and control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwartz, Ira

    2009-03-01

    The analysis of infectious disease fluctuations has recently seen an increasing rise in the use of new tools and models from stochastic dynamics and statistical physics. Examples arise in modeling fluctuations of multi-strain diseases, in modeling adaptive social behavior and its impact on disease fluctuations, and in the analysis of disease extinction in finite population models. Proper stochastic model reduction [1] allows one to predict unobserved fluctuations from observed data in multi-strain models [2]. Degree alteration and power law behavior is predicted in adaptive network epidemic models [3,4]. And extinction rates derived from large fluctuation theory exhibit scaling with respect to distance to the bifurcation point of disease onset with an unusual exponent [5]. In addition to outbreak prediction, another main goal of epidemic modeling is one of eliminating the disease to extinction through various control mechanisms, such as vaccine implementation or quarantine. In this talk, a description will be presented of the fluctuational behavior of several epidemic models and their extinction rates. A general framework and analysis of the effect of non-Gaussian control actuations which enhance the rate to disease extinction will be described. In particular, in it is shown that even in the presence of a small Poisson distributed vaccination program, there is an exponentially enhanced rate to disease extinction. These ideas may lead to improved methods of controlling disease where random vaccinations are prevalent. [4pt] Recent papers:[0pt] [1] E. Forgoston and I. B. Schwartz, ``Escape Rates in a Stochastic Environment with Multiple Scales,'' arXiv:0809.1345 2008.[0pt] [2] L. B. Shaw, L. Billings, I. B. Schwartz, ``Using dimension reduction to improve outbreak predictability of multi-strain diseases,'' J. Math. Bio. 55, 1 2007.[0pt] [3] L. B. Shaw and I. B. Schwartz, ``Fluctuating epidemics on adaptive networks,'' Physical Review E 77, 066101 2008.[0pt] [4] L. B

  11. Avoiding healthy cells extinction in a cancer model.

    PubMed

    López, Álvaro G; Sabuco, Juan; Seoane, Jesús M; Duarte, Jorge; Januário, Cristina; Sanjuán, Miguel A F

    2014-05-21

    We consider a dynamical model of cancer growth including three interacting cell populations of tumor cells, healthy host cells and immune effector cells. For certain parameter choice, the dynamical system displays chaotic motion and by decreasing the response of the immune system to the tumor cells, a boundary crisis leading to transient chaotic dynamics is observed. This means that the system behaves chaotically for a finite amount of time until the unavoidable extinction of the healthy and immune cell populations occurs. Our main goal here is to apply a control method to avoid extinction. For that purpose, we apply the partial control method, which aims to control transient chaotic dynamics in the presence of external disturbances. As a result, we have succeeded to avoid the uncontrolled growth of tumor cells and the extinction of healthy tissue. The possibility of using this method compared to the frequently used therapies is discussed.

  12. Endolithic microbial model for Martian exobiology: The road to extinction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oscampo-Friedmann, R.; Friedmann, E. I.

    1991-01-01

    Martian exobiology is based on the assumption that on early Mars, liquid water was present and that conditions were suitable for the evolution of life. The cause for life to disappear from the surface and the recognizable fingerprints of past microbial activity preserved on Mars are addressed. The Antarctic cryptoendolithic microbial ecosystem as a model for extinction in the deteriorating Martian environment is discussed.

  13. Interstellar Dust Models Consistent with Extinction, Emission, and Abundance Constraints

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zubko, Viktor; Dwek, Eli; Arendt, Richard G.

    2004-01-01

    We present new interstellar dust models which have been derived by simultaneously fitting the far ultraviolet to near infrared extinction, the diffuse infrared emission, and, unlike previous models, the elemental abundances in dust for the diffuse interstellar medium. We found that dust models consisting of a mixture of spherical graphite and silicate grains, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) molecules, in addition to porous composite particles containing silicate, organic refractory, and water ice, provide an improved .t to the UV-to-infrared extinction and infrared emission measurements, while consuming the amounts of elements well within the uncertainties of adopted interstellar abundances, including B star abundances. These models are a signi.cant improvement over the recent Li & Draine (2001, ApJ, 554, 778) model which requires an excessive amount of silicon to be locked up in dust: 48 ppm (atoms per million of H atoms), considerably more than the solar abundance of 34 ppm or the B star abundance of 19 ppm.

  14. Extinction risk and structure of a food web model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pękalski, Andrzej; Szwabiński, Janusz; Bena, Ioana; Droz, Michel

    2008-03-01

    We investigate in detail the model of a trophic web proposed by Amaral and Meyer [Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 652 (1999)]. We focus on small-size systems that are relevant for real biological food webs and for which the fluctuations play an important role. We show, using Monte Carlo simulations, that such webs can be nonviable, leading to extinction of all species in small and/or weakly coupled systems. Estimations of the extinction times and survival chances are also given. We show that before the extinction the fraction of highly connected species (“omnivores”) is increasing. Viable food webs exhibit a pyramidal structure, where the density of occupied niches is higher at lower trophic levels, and moreover the occupations of adjacent levels are closely correlated. We also demonstrate that the distribution of the lengths of food chains has an exponential character and changes weakly with the parameters of the model. On the contrary, the distribution of avalanche sizes of the extinct species depends strongly on the connectedness of the web. For rather loosely connected systems, we recover the power-law type of behavior with the same exponent as found in earlier studies, while for densely connected webs the distribution is not of a power-law type.

  15. Outbreak and Extinction Dynamics in a Stochastic Ebola Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nieddu, Garrett; Bianco, Simone; Billings, Lora; Forgoston, Eric; Kaufman, James

    A zoonotic disease is a disease that can be passed between animals and humans. In many cases zoonotic diseases can persist in the animal population even if there are no infections in the human population. In this case we call the infected animal population the reservoir for the disease. Ebola virus disease (EVD) and SARS are both notable examples of such diseases. There is little work devoted to understanding stochastic disease extinction and reintroduction in the presence of a reservoir. Here we build a stochastic model for EVD and explicitly consider the presence of an animal reservoir. Using a master equation approach and a WKB ansatz, we determine the associated Hamiltonian of the system. Hamilton's equations are then used to numerically compute the 12-dimensional optimal path to extinction, which is then used to estimate mean extinction times. We also numerically investigate the behavior of the model for dynamic population size. Our results provide an improved understanding of outbreak and extinction dynamics in diseases like EVD.

  16. Extinction risk and structure of a food web model.

    PubMed

    Pekalski, Andrzej; Szwabiński, Janusz; Bena, Ioana; Droz, Michel

    2008-03-01

    We investigate in detail the model of a trophic web proposed by Amaral and Meyer [Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 652 (1999)]. We focus on small-size systems that are relevant for real biological food webs and for which the fluctuations play an important role. We show, using Monte Carlo simulations, that such webs can be nonviable, leading to extinction of all species in small and/or weakly coupled systems. Estimations of the extinction times and survival chances are also given. We show that before the extinction the fraction of highly connected species ("omnivores") is increasing. Viable food webs exhibit a pyramidal structure, where the density of occupied niches is higher at lower trophic levels, and moreover the occupations of adjacent levels are closely correlated. We also demonstrate that the distribution of the lengths of food chains has an exponential character and changes weakly with the parameters of the model. On the contrary, the distribution of avalanche sizes of the extinct species depends strongly on the connectedness of the web. For rather loosely connected systems, we recover the power-law type of behavior with the same exponent as found in earlier studies, while for densely connected webs the distribution is not of a power-law type.

  17. Preventing Return of Fear in an Animal Model of Anxiety: Additive Effects of Massive Extinction and Extinction in Multiple Contexts

    PubMed Central

    Laborda, Mario A.; Miller, Ralph R.

    2013-01-01

    Fear conditioning and experimental extinction have been presented as models of anxiety disorders and exposure therapy, respectively. Moreover, the return of fear serves as a model of relapse after exposure therapy. Here we present two experiments, with rats as subjects in a lick suppression preparation, in which we assessed the additive effects of two different treatments to attenuate the return of fear. First, we evaluated whether two phenomena known to generate return of fear (i.e., spontaneous recovery and renewal) summate to produce a stronger reappearance of extinguished fear. At test, rats evaluated outside the extinction context following a long delay after extinction (i.e., a delayed context shift) exhibited greater return of extinguished fear than rats evaluated outside the extinction context alone, but return of extinguished fear following a delayed context shift did not significantly differ from the return of fear elicited in rats tested following a long delay after extinction alone. Additionally, extinction in multiple contexts and a massive extinction treatment each attenuated the strong return of fear produced by a delayed context shift. Moreover, the conjoint action of these treatments was significantly more successful in preventing the reappearance of extinguished fear, suggesting that extensive cue exposure administered in several different therapeutic settings has the potential to reduce relapse after therapy for anxiety disorders, more than either manipulation alone. PMID:23611075

  18. Statistical mechanics of network models of macroevolution and extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solé, Ricard V.

    The fossil record of life has been shown to provide evidence for scaling laws in both time series and in some statistical features. This evidence was suggested to be linked with a self-organized critical phenomenon by several authors. In this paper we review some of these models and their specific predictions. It is shown that most of the observed statistical properties of the evolutionary process on the long time scale can be reproduced by means of a simple model involving a network of interactions among species. The model is able to capture the essential features of the extinction and diversification process and gives power law distributions for (i) extinction events, (ii) taxonomy of species-genera data, (iii) lifetime distribution of genus close to those reported from paleontological databases. It also provides a natural decoupling between micro- and macroevolutionary processes.

  19. Noise-induced extinction in Bazykin-Berezovskaya population model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev

    2016-07-01

    A nonlinear Bazykin-Berezovskaya prey-predator model under the influence of parametric stochastic forcing is considered. Due to Allee effect, this conceptual population model even in the deterministic case demonstrates both local and global bifurcations with the change of predator mortality. It is shown that random noise can transform system dynamics from the regime of coexistence, in equilibrium or periodic modes, to the extinction of both species. Geometry of attractors and separatrices, dividing basins of attraction, plays an important role in understanding the probabilistic mechanisms of these stochastic phenomena. Parametric analysis of noise-induced extinction is carried out on the base of the direct numerical simulation and new analytical stochastic sensitivity functions technique taking into account the arrangement of attractors and separatrices.

  20. Modelling the locomotor energetics of extinct hominids.

    PubMed

    Kramer, P A

    1999-10-01

    Bipedality is the defining characteristic of Hominidae and, as such, an understanding of the adaptive significance and functional implications of bipedality is imperative to any study of human evolution. Hominid bipedality is, presumably, a solution to some problem for the early hominids, one that has much to do with energy expenditure. Until recently, however, little attention could be focused on the quantifiable energetic aspects of bipedality as a unique locomotor form within Primates because of the inability to measure empirically the energy expenditure of non-modern hominids. A recently published method provides a way of circumventing the empirical measurement dilemma by calculating energy expenditure directly from anatomical variables and movement profiles. Although the origins of bipedality remain clouded, two discernible forms of locomotor anatomy are present in the hominid fossil record: the australopithecine and modern configurations. The australopithecine form is best represented by AL 288-1, a partial skeleton of Australopithecus afarensis, and is characterized as having short legs and a wide pelvis. The modern form is represented by modern humans and has long legs and a narrow pelvis. Human walking is optimized to take advantage of the changing levels of potential and kinetic energy that occur as the body and limbs move through the stride cycle. Although this optimization minimizes energy expenditure, some energy is required to maintain motion. I quantify this energy by developing a dynamic model that uses kinematic equations to determine energy expenditure. By representing both configurations with such a model, I can compare their rates of energy expenditure. I find that the australopithecine configuration uses less energy than that of a modern human. Despite arguments presented in the anthropological literature, the shortness of the legs of AL 288-1 provides no evidence that she was burdened with a compromised or transitional locomotor anatomy

  1. Modelling the locomotor energetics of extinct hominids.

    PubMed

    Kramer, P A

    1999-10-01

    Bipedality is the defining characteristic of Hominidae and, as such, an understanding of the adaptive significance and functional implications of bipedality is imperative to any study of human evolution. Hominid bipedality is, presumably, a solution to some problem for the early hominids, one that has much to do with energy expenditure. Until recently, however, little attention could be focused on the quantifiable energetic aspects of bipedality as a unique locomotor form within Primates because of the inability to measure empirically the energy expenditure of non-modern hominids. A recently published method provides a way of circumventing the empirical measurement dilemma by calculating energy expenditure directly from anatomical variables and movement profiles. Although the origins of bipedality remain clouded, two discernible forms of locomotor anatomy are present in the hominid fossil record: the australopithecine and modern configurations. The australopithecine form is best represented by AL 288-1, a partial skeleton of Australopithecus afarensis, and is characterized as having short legs and a wide pelvis. The modern form is represented by modern humans and has long legs and a narrow pelvis. Human walking is optimized to take advantage of the changing levels of potential and kinetic energy that occur as the body and limbs move through the stride cycle. Although this optimization minimizes energy expenditure, some energy is required to maintain motion. I quantify this energy by developing a dynamic model that uses kinematic equations to determine energy expenditure. By representing both configurations with such a model, I can compare their rates of energy expenditure. I find that the australopithecine configuration uses less energy than that of a modern human. Despite arguments presented in the anthropological literature, the shortness of the legs of AL 288-1 provides no evidence that she was burdened with a compromised or transitional locomotor anatomy

  2. A chronology for the retreat of the Irish Sea Ice-Stream using Bayesian modelling techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thrasher, I. M.; Chiverrell, R. C.; Thomas, G. S. P.; Mauz, B.; Lang, A.

    2009-04-01

    During Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 the Irish Sea Basin was occupied by the Irish Sea Ice-Stream (ISIS), a major outlet for ice which had accumulated in the British and Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS). The flow dynamics and flow phasing of this portion of the BIIS during maximum extent, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and subsequent retreat are poorly understood due to a lack of chronological control. To improve understanding of the timing of maximum ice-stream extent and subsequent retreat, we have compiled the available chronological data for deposits associated with this phase of glaciation. These chronological data were arranged in an expected order using the geomorphological, stratigraphical and sedimentological field evidence. The relative order model broadly comprised a younging sequence from before the advance to LGM limits through subsequent retreat stages. Bayesian modelling techniques were used to evaluate the conformability of this pseudo-stratigraphical relative order model. Lack of conformity in the relative order model either implied problems with individual age determinations or that the relative order of events within the model is flawed, and in both cases the problems required explanation. The relative order model contained 52 age determinations for various phases of ice advance and retreat. Bayesian analysis showed that the relative order model, constructed with information provided by stratigraphical, geomorphological and geographical evidence was conformable with the existing chronology. The incorporation of prior information within the Bayesian framework enabled the refining of probability-based age estimates for the advance and retreat history of the ISIS. The expansion of ISIS to the maximum extent advancing across southern Ireland and into the Celtic Sea appears constrained to between 24.2-22.1 cal. kyr BP. Retreat stage ice-marginal positions are constrained to between 23.9-21.4 cal. kyr BP in Co. Wexford, south-eastern Ireland and between 23

  3. Modeling of the evolution of steppe chernozems and development of the method of pedogenetic chronology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lisetskii, F. N.; Stolba, V. F.; Goleusov, P. V.

    2016-08-01

    Geoarchaeological methods were used to study chronosequences of surface soils in the steppe zone and to trace soil evolution during the Late Holocene in northwestern Crimea. It was found that the morphological and functional "maturity" of the humus horizons in steppe chernozems of the Late Holocene was reached in about 1600-1800 yrs. After this, their development decelerated irreversibly. The maximum concentration of trace elements accumulated in these horizons in the course of pedogenesis was reached in 1400 yrs. A new method of pedogenetic chronology based on the model chronofunction of the development of irreversible results of pedogenesis over time is suggested. Original pedochronological data and growth functions—the most suitable models for simulating pedogenesis over the past three thousand years—suggest that the development of morphological features of soil as an organomineral natural body follows growth patterns established for biological systems.

  4. Extinction in neutrally stable stochastic Lotka-Volterra models.

    PubMed

    Dobrinevski, Alexander; Frey, Erwin

    2012-05-01

    Populations of competing biological species exhibit a fascinating interplay between the nonlinear dynamics of evolutionary selection forces and random fluctuations arising from the stochastic nature of the interactions. The processes leading to extinction of species, whose understanding is a key component in the study of evolution and biodiversity, are influenced by both of these factors. Here, we investigate a class of stochastic population dynamics models based on generalized Lotka-Volterra systems. In the case of neutral stability of the underlying deterministic model, the impact of intrinsic noise on the survival of species is dramatic: It destroys coexistence of interacting species on a time scale proportional to the population size. We introduce a new method based on stochastic averaging which allows one to understand this extinction process quantitatively by reduction to a lower-dimensional effective dynamics. This is performed analytically for two highly symmetrical models and can be generalized numerically to more complex situations. The extinction probability distributions and other quantities of interest we obtain show excellent agreement with simulations.

  5. Reconciling Reinforcement Learning Models with Behavioral Extinction and Renewal: Implications for Addiction, Relapse, and Problem Gambling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Redish, A. David; Jensen, Steve; Johnson, Adam; Kurth-Nelson, Zeb

    2007-01-01

    Because learned associations are quickly renewed following extinction, the extinction process must include processes other than unlearning. However, reinforcement learning models, such as the temporal difference reinforcement learning (TDRL) model, treat extinction as an unlearning of associated value and are thus unable to capture renewal. TDRL…

  6. Modeling Extragalactic Extinction through Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zonca, Alberto; Cecchi-Pestellini, Cesare; Mulas, Giacomo; Casu, Silvia; Aresu, Giambattista

    2016-09-01

    We analyze extragalactic extinction profiles derived through gamma-ray burst afterglows, using a dust model specifically constructed on the assumption that dust grains are not immutable but respond, time-dependently, to the local physics. Such a model includes core-mantle spherical particles of mixed chemical composition (silicate core, sp2, and sp3 carbonaceous layers), and an additional molecular component in the form of free-flying polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. We fit most of the observed extinction profiles. Failures occur for lines of sight, presenting remarkable rises blueward of the bump. We find a tendency for the carbon chemical structure to become more aliphatic with the galactic activity, and to some extent with increasing redshifts. Moreover, the contribution of the molecular component to the total extinction is more important in younger objects. The results of the fitting procedure (either successes and failures) may be naturally interpreted through an evolutionary prescription based on the carbon cycle in the interstellar medium of galaxies.

  7. Cascading extinctions and community collapse in model food webs.

    PubMed

    Dunne, Jennifer A; Williams, Richard J

    2009-06-27

    Species loss in ecosystems can lead to secondary extinctions as a result of consumer-resource relationships and other species interactions. We compare levels of secondary extinctions in communities generated by four structural food-web models and a fifth null model in response to sequential primary species removals. We focus on various aspects of food-web structural integrity including robustness, community collapse and threshold periods, and how these features relate to assumptions underlying different models, different species loss sequences and simple measures of diversity and complexity. Hierarchical feeding, a fundamental characteristic of food-web structure, appears to impose a cost in terms of robustness and other aspects of structural integrity. However, exponential-type link distributions, also characteristic of more realistic models, generally confer greater structural robustness than the less skewed link distributions of less realistic models. In most cases for the more realistic models, increased robustness and decreased levels of web collapse are associated with increased diversity, measured as species richness S, and increased complexity, measured as connectance C. These and other results, including a surprising sensitivity of more realistic model food webs to loss of species with few links to other species, are compared with prior work based on empirical food-web data.

  8. A probabilistic model of chronological errors in layer-counted climate proxies: applications to annually banded coral archives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Comboul, M.; Emile-Geay, J.; Evans, M. N.; Mirnateghi, N.; Cobb, K. M.; Thompson, D. M.

    2014-04-01

    The ability to precisely date climate proxies is central to the reconstruction of past climate variations. To a degree, all climate proxies are affected by age uncertainties, which are seldom quantified. This article proposes a probabilistic age model for proxies based on layer-counted chronologies, and explores its use for annually banded coral archives. The model considers both missing and doubly counted growth increments (represented as independent processes), accommodates various assumptions about error rates, and allows one to quantify the impact of chronological uncertainties on different diagnostics of variability. In the case of a single coral record, we find that time uncertainties primarily affect high-frequency signals but also significantly bias the estimate of decadal signals. We further explore tuning to an independent, tree-ring-based chronology as a way to identify an optimal age model. A synthetic pseudocoral network is used as testing ground to quantify uncertainties in the estimation of spatiotemporal patterns of variability. Even for small error rates, the amplitude of multidecadal variability is systematically overestimated at the expense of interannual variability (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, in this case), artificially flattening its spectrum at periods longer than 10 years. An optimization approach to correct chronological errors in coherent multivariate records is presented and validated in idealized cases, though it is found difficult to apply in practice due to the large number of solutions. We close with a discussion of possible extensions of this model and connections to existing strategies for modeling age uncertainties.

  9. A probabilistic model of chronological errors in layer-counted climate proxies: applications to annually-banded coral archives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Comboul, M.; Emile-Geay, J.; Evans, M. N.; Mirnateghi, N.; Cobb, K. M.; Thompson, D. M.

    2013-10-01

    The ability to precisely date climate proxies is central to the reconstruction of past climate variations. To a degree, all climate proxies are affected by age uncertainties, which are seldom quantified. This article proposes a probabilistic age model for proxies based on layer-counted chronologies, and explores its use for annually-banded coral archives. The model considers both missing and doubly-counted growth increments (represented as independent processes), accommodates various assumptions about error rates, and allows to quantify the impact of chronological uncertainties on different diagnostics of variability. In one dimension, we find that time uncertainties primarily affect high-frequency signals but also significantly bias the estimate of decadal signals. We further explore tuning to an independent, tree-ring based chronology as a way to identify an optimal age model. In the multivariate case, a synthetic pseudocoral network is used as testing ground to quantify uncertainties in the estimation of spatiotemporal patterns of variability. Even for small error rates, the amplitude of multidecadal variability is systematically overestimated at the expense of interannual variability (ENSO, in this case), artificially flattening its spectrum at periods longer than 10 yr. An approach to correct chronological errors in coherent multivariate records is presented and validated in idealized cases, though it is found difficult to apply in practice due to the large size of the solution space. We end with a discussion of possible extensions of this model and connections to existing strategies for modeling age uncertainties.

  10. Periodic mass extinctions and the Planet X model reconsidered

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitmire, Daniel P.

    2016-01-01

    The 27 Myr period in the fossil extinction record has been confirmed in modern data bases dating back 500 Myr, which is twice the time interval of the original analysis from 30 years ago. The surprising regularity of this period has been used to reject the Nemesis model. A second model based on the Sun's vertical Galactic oscillations has been challenged on the basis of an inconsistency in period and phasing. The third astronomical model originally proposed to explain the periodicity is the Planet X model in which the period is associated with the perihelion precession of the inclined orbit of a trans-Neptunian planet. Recently, and unrelated to mass extinctions, a trans-Neptunian super-Earth planet has been proposed to explain the observation that the inner Oort cloud objects Sedna and 2012VP113 have perihelia that lie near the ecliptic plane. In this Letter, we reconsider the Planet X model in light of the confluence of the modern palaeontological and outer Solar system dynamical evidence.

  11. Rapid evolution of mimicry following local model extinction

    PubMed Central

    Akcali, Christopher K.; Pfennig, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Batesian mimicry evolves when individuals of a palatable species gain the selective advantage of reduced predation because they resemble a toxic species that predators avoid. Here, we evaluated whether—and in which direction—Batesian mimicry has evolved in a natural population of mimics following extirpation of their model. We specifically asked whether the precision of coral snake mimicry has evolved among kingsnakes from a region where coral snakes recently (1960) went locally extinct. We found that these kingsnakes have evolved more precise mimicry; by contrast, no such change occurred in a sympatric non-mimetic species or in conspecifics from a region where coral snakes remain abundant. Presumably, more precise mimicry has continued to evolve after model extirpation, because relatively few predator generations have passed, and the fitness costs incurred by predators that mistook a deadly coral snake for a kingsnake were historically much greater than those incurred by predators that mistook a kingsnake for a coral snake. Indeed, these results are consistent with prior theoretical and empirical studies, which revealed that only the most precise mimics are favoured as their model becomes increasingly rare. Thus, highly noxious models can generate an ‘evolutionary momentum’ that drives the further evolution of more precise mimicry—even after models go extinct. PMID:24919704

  12. Rapid evolution of mimicry following local model extinction.

    PubMed

    Akcali, Christopher K; Pfennig, David W

    2014-06-01

    Batesian mimicry evolves when individuals of a palatable species gain the selective advantage of reduced predation because they resemble a toxic species that predators avoid. Here, we evaluated whether-and in which direction-Batesian mimicry has evolved in a natural population of mimics following extirpation of their model. We specifically asked whether the precision of coral snake mimicry has evolved among kingsnakes from a region where coral snakes recently (1960) went locally extinct. We found that these kingsnakes have evolved more precise mimicry; by contrast, no such change occurred in a sympatric non-mimetic species or in conspecifics from a region where coral snakes remain abundant. Presumably, more precise mimicry has continued to evolve after model extirpation, because relatively few predator generations have passed, and the fitness costs incurred by predators that mistook a deadly coral snake for a kingsnake were historically much greater than those incurred by predators that mistook a kingsnake for a coral snake. Indeed, these results are consistent with prior theoretical and empirical studies, which revealed that only the most precise mimics are favoured as their model becomes increasingly rare. Thus, highly noxious models can generate an 'evolutionary momentum' that drives the further evolution of more precise mimicry-even after models go extinct.

  13. Chronology of DIC technique based on the fundamental mathematical modeling and dehydration impact.

    PubMed

    Alias, Norma; Saipol, Hafizah Farhah Saipan; Ghani, Asnida Che Abd

    2014-12-01

    A chronology of mathematical models for heat and mass transfer equation is proposed for the prediction of moisture and temperature behavior during drying using DIC (Détente Instantanée Contrôlée) or instant controlled pressure drop technique. DIC technique has the potential as most commonly used dehydration method for high impact food value including the nutrition maintenance and the best possible quality for food storage. The model is governed by the regression model, followed by 2D Fick's and Fourier's parabolic equation and 2D elliptic-parabolic equation in a rectangular slice. The models neglect the effect of shrinkage and radiation effects. The simulations of heat and mass transfer equations with parabolic and elliptic-parabolic types through some numerical methods based on finite difference method (FDM) have been illustrated. Intel®Core™2Duo processors with Linux operating system and C programming language have been considered as a computational platform for the simulation. Qualitative and quantitative differences between DIC technique and the conventional drying methods have been shown as a comparative. PMID:25477631

  14. New constraining datasets for Eurasian ice sheet modelling: chronology, fjords and bedrock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gyllencreutz, R.; Tarasov, L.; Mangerud, J.; Svendsen, J. I.; Lohne, Ø. S.

    2009-04-01

    The increasing resolution of ice sheet models demands more detailed data for constraining and for comparison of results. Important data for this include ice sheet chronology, bed conditions and topography. We address this by compiling published data into three new constraining data sets. The Eurasian ice sheet chronology is reconstructed in our database-GIS solution (called DATED; Gyllencreutz et al., 2007). In DATED, we are building a database with all available dates, and a GIS with all geomorphologic features, that are relevant for the ice configuration through the Last Glacial Maximum and the following deglaciation, based on results from the literature. Reconstructions of the ice sheet configuration are presented as thousand-year time slices of the advance and decay of the Eurasian ice sheet between 25 and 10 thousand calendar years ago, based on chronologic, geomorphologic and stratigraphic data from the literature. To facilitate handling of error estimates in ice sheet modeling using our reconstructions, we made three reconstructions for every time slice: a maximum, a minimum and a "probable" ice sheet configuration, based on the limitations of the data at hand. The estimated uncertainty for the reconstructions was calculated in the GIS, and amounts to about 1 million km2 (about 1/5 of the maximum area) for most of the record before the Younger Dryas, indicating significant gaps in the knowledge of the Eurasian ice sheet configuration. In order to facilitate modeling of fast ice flow and ice streams, we compiled information about exposed bedrock from digital Quaternary maps in scale 1:1 million by the geological surveys in Norway, Sweden, Finland, UK and Ireland, together with published drift thickness estimates. The bed conditions data set was generalized to a grid resolution of 0.25 x 0.25 degrees. The Norwegian fjords are important for topographic steering; especially for fast glacier flow and draw-down from more central parts of the ice sheet. However

  15. A Chronology of Annual-Mean Effective Radii of Stratospheric Aerosols from Volcanic Eruptions During the Twentieth Century as Derived From Ground-based Spectral Extinction Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strothers, Richard B.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Stratospheric extinction can be derived from ground-based spectral photometric observations of the Sun and other stars (as well as from satellite and aircraft measurements, available since 1979), and is found to increase after large volcanic eruptions. This increased extinction shows a characteristic wavelength dependence that gives information about the chemical composition and the effective (or area weighted mean) radius of the particles responsible for it. Known to be tiny aerosols constituted of sulfuric acid in a water solution, the stratospheric particles at midlatitudes exhibit a remarkable uniformity of their column-averaged effective radii r(sub eff) in the first few months after the eruption. Considering the seven largest eruptions of the twentieth century, r(sub eff) at this phase of peak aerosol abundance is approx. 0.3 micrometers in all cases. A year later, r(sub eff) either has remained about the same size (almost certainly in the case of the Katmai eruption of 1912) or has increased to approx. 0.5 micrometers (definitely so for the Pinatubo eruption of 1991). The reasons for this divergence in aerosol growth are unknown.

  16. Modelling the Laurentide Ice Sheet using improved ice margin chronologies and glacio-isostatic observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gowan, Evan; Tregoning, Paul; Purcell, Anthony; Lambeck, Kurt

    2013-04-01

    Creating models of the Laurentide ice sheet is challenging, due to the deficiency of chronological constraints and the uneven spatial resolution of data to determine the evolution of the glacio-isostatic response after deglaciation. Previous models relied on uncalibrated radiocarbon constrained margins that proved to have deficiencies in recent studies. Additionally, many recent Laurentide ice sheet models have been developed by incorporating climatic parameters that are poorly resolved for the late glacial period. We present a new ice sheet model by an iterative process of changing basal shear stress values and ice sheet margin location. A particular focus of this study is to determine the thickness and extent of the western Laurentide ice sheet, where there were few well dated observations of glacio-isostatic motion until recently. The volume of an ice sheet during long periods depends mostly on basal shear stress and margin position, which are the main parameters that we vary to fit our model to glacio-isostatic observations. We build our ice model using the assumption of perfectly plastic, steady-state conditions, with variable basal shear stress. Basal shear stress values depend on the surficial geology underlying the ice, and are at a minimum in offshore regions that have soft, deformable sediments, and at a maximum in areas with exposed crystalline bedrock. This approach may not capture dynamic and short lived features of the ice sheet, such as ice streams and stagnant ice, but gives an approximation of average conditions to produce ice volumes that fit geophysical observations. We adjust the margin location when the shear stress conditions alone cannot account for the observed glacio-isostatic response. The constraints on the response include relative sea level benchmarks, sea level highstand positions and proglacial lakes. We repeat the analysis using different rheological profiles to determine the dependence the Earth model has on the estimation of ice

  17. To predict the niche, model colonization and extinction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yackulic, Charles B.; Nichols, James D.; Reid, Janice; Der, Ricky

    2015-01-01

    Ecologists frequently try to predict the future geographic distributions of species. Most studies assume that the current distribution of a species reflects its environmental requirements (i.e., the species' niche). However, the current distributions of many species are unlikely to be at equilibrium with the current distribution of environmental conditions, both because of ongoing invasions and because the distribution of suitable environmental conditions is always changing. This mismatch between the equilibrium assumptions inherent in many analyses and the disequilibrium conditions in the real world leads to inaccurate predictions of species' geographic distributions and suggests the need for theory and analytical tools that avoid equilibrium assumptions. Here, we develop a general theory of environmental associations during periods of transient dynamics. We show that time-invariant relationships between environmental conditions and rates of local colonization and extinction can produce substantial temporal variation in occupancy–environment relationships. We then estimate occupancy–environment relationships during three avian invasions. Changes in occupancy–environment relationships over time differ among species but are predicted by dynamic occupancy models. Since estimates of the occupancy–environment relationships themselves are frequently poor predictors of future occupancy patterns, research should increasingly focus on characterizing how rates of local colonization and extinction vary with environmental conditions.

  18. Simple Model of Mating Preference and Extinction Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    PȨKALSKI, Andrzej

    We present a simple model of a population of individuals characterized by their genetic structure in the form of a double string of bits and the phenotype following from it. The population is living in an unchanging habitat preferring a certain type of phenotype (optimum). Individuals are unisex, however a pair is necessary for breeding. An individual rejects a mate if the latter's phenotype contains too many bad, i.e. different from the optimum, genes in the same places as the individual's. We show that such strategy, analogous to disassortative mating based on the major histocompatibility complex, avoiding inbreeding and incest, could be beneficial for the population and could reduce considerably the extinction risk, especially in small populations.

  19. Assessment of Chronological Effects of Irreversible Electroporation on Hilar Bile Ducts in a Porcine Model

    SciTech Connect

    Choi, Jae Woong Lu, David S. K. Osuagwu, Ferdnand Raman, Steven; Lassman, Charles

    2013-11-07

    PurposeTo evaluate the chronological effects of irreversible electroporation (IRE) on large hilar bile ducts in an in vivo porcine model correlated with computed tomography (CT) cholangiography and histopathology.Materials and MethodsTwelve IRE zones were made along hilar bile ducts intraoperatively under ultrasound (US)-guidance in 11 pigs. Paired electrodes were placed either on opposing sides of the bile duct (straddle [STR]) or both on one side of the bile duct (one-sided [OSD]). The shortest electrode-to-duct distance was classified as periductal (≤2 mm) or nonperiductal (>2 mm). CT cholangiography and laboratory tests were performed before IRE and again at 2 days, 4 weeks, and 8 weeks after IRE. Degree of bile duct injury were graded as follows: grade 0 = no narrowing; grade 1 = ≤50 % duct narrowing; grade 2 = >50 % narrowing without proximal duct dilatation; grade 3 = grade 2 with proximal duct dilatation; and grade 4 = grade 3 with enzyme elevation. Pigs were selected for killing and histopathology at 2 days, 4, and 8 weeks.ResultsNonperiductal electrode placement produced no long-term strictures in 5 of 5 ducts. Periductal electrode placement produced mild narrowing in 6 of 7 ducts: 5 grade 1 and 1 grade 2. None showed increased enzymes. There was no significant difference between STR versus OSD electrode placement. Histopathology showed minor but relatively greater ductal mural changes in narrowed ducts.ConclusionIn the larger hilar ducts, long-term patency and mural integrity appear resistant to IRE damage with the energy deposition used, especially if the electrode is not immediately periductal in position.

  20. Assessing the causes of late Pleistocene extinctions on the continents.

    PubMed

    Barnosky, Anthony D; Koch, Paul L; Feranec, Robert S; Wing, Scott L; Shabel, Alan B

    2004-10-01

    One of the great debates about extinction is whether humans or climatic change caused the demise of the Pleistocene megafauna. Evidence from paleontology, climatology, archaeology, and ecology now supports the idea that humans contributed to extinction on some continents, but human hunting was not solely responsible for the pattern of extinction everywhere. Instead, evidence suggests that the intersection of human impacts with pronounced climatic change drove the precise timing and geography of extinction in the Northern Hemisphere. The story from the Southern Hemisphere is still unfolding. New evidence from Australia supports the view that humans helped cause extinctions there, but the correlation with climate is weak or contested. Firmer chronologies, more realistic ecological models, and regional paleoecological insights still are needed to understand details of the worldwide extinction pattern and the population dynamics of the species involved.

  1. Evaluating ice sheet model spinup procedures using chronological data constraining ice margin positions over time on Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Applegate, P. J.; Kirchner, N.; Levy, L.; Kelly, M. A.; Lowell, T. V.; Greve, R.

    2011-12-01

    We compare a recently-published ice sheet model run to field data constraining ice margin positions over time on Greenland, to assess presently-accepted model spinup procedures. Computer models describing ice flow and mass balance are important tools for learning about the future behavior of ice sheets in a warming world. Because ice softness is temperature-sensitive and the thermal field within the ice sheet is mostly unknown, ice sheet models must be "spun up" using paleoclimate data before future changes can be estimated. The models produce ice margin positions over time during the spinup, allowing comparison with field data such as cosmogenic exposure dates and radiocarbon dating of organic matter. If the agreement between modeled and reconstructed ice margin positions is good, we can have increased confidence in the models' ability to forecast future changes. For the present study, we use a model setup from Greve et al. (2011; Annals of Glaciology 52, 23-30; sicopolis.greveweb.net), and a preliminary collection of chronological data. We aggregate the chronological data to the model grid, then plot the data and modeled ice margin positions as time-distance diagrams along west-east transects. Our results have implications for the use of the Summit ice cores to predict mass balance around the margins of the ice sheet and future projections of sea level rise using ice sheet models.

  2. Fear Extinction as a Model for Translational Neuroscience: Ten Years of Progress

    PubMed Central

    Milad, Mohammed R.; Quirk, Gregory J.

    2016-01-01

    The psychology of extinction has been studied for decades. Approximately 10 years ago, however, there began a concerted effort to understand the neural circuits of extinction of fear conditioning, in both animals and humans. Progress during this period has been facilitated by an unusual degree of coordination between rodent and human researchers examining fear extinction. This successful research program could serve as a model for translational research in other areas of behavioral neuroscience. Here we review the major advances and highlight new approaches to understanding and exploiting fear extinction. PMID:22129456

  3. Uncertainty-Dependent Extinction of Fear Memory in an Amygdala-mPFC Neural Circuit Model.

    PubMed

    Li, Yuzhe; Nakae, Ken; Ishii, Shin; Naoki, Honda

    2016-09-01

    Uncertainty of fear conditioning is crucial for the acquisition and extinction of fear memory. Fear memory acquired through partial pairings of a conditioned stimulus (CS) and an unconditioned stimulus (US) is more resistant to extinction than that acquired through full pairings; this effect is known as the partial reinforcement extinction effect (PREE). Although the PREE has been explained by psychological theories, the neural mechanisms underlying the PREE remain largely unclear. Here, we developed a neural circuit model based on three distinct types of neurons (fear, persistent and extinction neurons) in the amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). In the model, the fear, persistent and extinction neurons encode predictions of net severity, of unconditioned stimulus (US) intensity, and of net safety, respectively. Our simulation successfully reproduces the PREE. We revealed that unpredictability of the US during extinction was represented by the combined responses of the three types of neurons, which are critical for the PREE. In addition, we extended the model to include amygdala subregions and the mPFC to address a recent finding that the ventral mPFC (vmPFC) is required for consolidating extinction memory but not for memory retrieval. Furthermore, model simulations led us to propose a novel procedure to enhance extinction learning through re-conditioning with a stronger US; strengthened fear memory up-regulates the extinction neuron, which, in turn, further inhibits the fear neuron during re-extinction. Thus, our models increased the understanding of the functional roles of the amygdala and vmPFC in the processing of uncertainty in fear conditioning and extinction. PMID:27617747

  4. Uncertainty-Dependent Extinction of Fear Memory in an Amygdala-mPFC Neural Circuit Model

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yuzhe; Nakae, Ken; Ishii, Shin; Naoki, Honda

    2016-01-01

    Uncertainty of fear conditioning is crucial for the acquisition and extinction of fear memory. Fear memory acquired through partial pairings of a conditioned stimulus (CS) and an unconditioned stimulus (US) is more resistant to extinction than that acquired through full pairings; this effect is known as the partial reinforcement extinction effect (PREE). Although the PREE has been explained by psychological theories, the neural mechanisms underlying the PREE remain largely unclear. Here, we developed a neural circuit model based on three distinct types of neurons (fear, persistent and extinction neurons) in the amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). In the model, the fear, persistent and extinction neurons encode predictions of net severity, of unconditioned stimulus (US) intensity, and of net safety, respectively. Our simulation successfully reproduces the PREE. We revealed that unpredictability of the US during extinction was represented by the combined responses of the three types of neurons, which are critical for the PREE. In addition, we extended the model to include amygdala subregions and the mPFC to address a recent finding that the ventral mPFC (vmPFC) is required for consolidating extinction memory but not for memory retrieval. Furthermore, model simulations led us to propose a novel procedure to enhance extinction learning through re-conditioning with a stronger US; strengthened fear memory up-regulates the extinction neuron, which, in turn, further inhibits the fear neuron during re-extinction. Thus, our models increased the understanding of the functional roles of the amygdala and vmPFC in the processing of uncertainty in fear conditioning and extinction. PMID:27617747

  5. Uncertainty-Dependent Extinction of Fear Memory in an Amygdala-mPFC Neural Circuit Model.

    PubMed

    Li, Yuzhe; Nakae, Ken; Ishii, Shin; Naoki, Honda

    2016-09-01

    Uncertainty of fear conditioning is crucial for the acquisition and extinction of fear memory. Fear memory acquired through partial pairings of a conditioned stimulus (CS) and an unconditioned stimulus (US) is more resistant to extinction than that acquired through full pairings; this effect is known as the partial reinforcement extinction effect (PREE). Although the PREE has been explained by psychological theories, the neural mechanisms underlying the PREE remain largely unclear. Here, we developed a neural circuit model based on three distinct types of neurons (fear, persistent and extinction neurons) in the amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). In the model, the fear, persistent and extinction neurons encode predictions of net severity, of unconditioned stimulus (US) intensity, and of net safety, respectively. Our simulation successfully reproduces the PREE. We revealed that unpredictability of the US during extinction was represented by the combined responses of the three types of neurons, which are critical for the PREE. In addition, we extended the model to include amygdala subregions and the mPFC to address a recent finding that the ventral mPFC (vmPFC) is required for consolidating extinction memory but not for memory retrieval. Furthermore, model simulations led us to propose a novel procedure to enhance extinction learning through re-conditioning with a stronger US; strengthened fear memory up-regulates the extinction neuron, which, in turn, further inhibits the fear neuron during re-extinction. Thus, our models increased the understanding of the functional roles of the amygdala and vmPFC in the processing of uncertainty in fear conditioning and extinction.

  6. Modeling local extinction in turbulent combustion using an embedding method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knaus, Robert; Pantano, Carlos

    2012-11-01

    Local regions of extinction in diffusion flames, called ``flame holes,'' can reduce the efficiency of combustion and increase the production of certain pollutants. At sufficiently high speeds, a flame may also be lifted from the rim of the burner to a downstream location that may be stable. These two phenomena share a common underlying mechanism of propagation related to edge-flame dynamics where chemistry and fluid mechanics are equally important. We present a formulation that describes the formation, propagation, and growth of flames holes on the stoichiometric surface using edge flame dynamics. The boundary separating the flame from the quenched region is modeled using a progress variable defined on the moving stoichiometric surface that is embedded in the three-dimensional space using an extension algorithm. This Cartesian problem is solved using a high-order finite-volume WENO method extended to this nonconservative problem. This algorithm can track the dynamics of flame holes in a turbulent reacting-shear layer and model flame liftoff without requiring full chemistry calculations.

  7. Rethinking Extinction.

    PubMed

    Dunsmoor, Joseph E; Niv, Yael; Daw, Nathaniel; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2015-10-01

    Extinction serves as the leading theoretical framework and experimental model to describe how learned behaviors diminish through absence of anticipated reinforcement. In the past decade, extinction has moved beyond the realm of associative learning theory and behavioral experimentation in animals and has become a topic of considerable interest in the neuroscience of learning, memory, and emotion. Here, we review research and theories of extinction, both as a learning process and as a behavioral technique, and consider whether traditional understandings warrant a re-examination. We discuss the neurobiology, cognitive factors, and major computational theories, and revisit the predominant view that extinction results in new learning that interferes with expression of the original memory. Additionally, we reconsider the limitations of extinction as a technique to prevent the relapse of maladaptive behavior and discuss novel approaches, informed by contemporary theoretical advances, that augment traditional extinction methods to target and potentially alter maladaptive memories. PMID:26447572

  8. Rethinking Extinction

    PubMed Central

    Dunsmoor, Joseph E.; Niv, Yael; Daw, Nathaniel; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2015-01-01

    Extinction serves as the leading theoretical framework and experimental model to describe how learned behaviors diminish through absence of anticipated reinforcement. In the past decade, extinction has moved beyond the realm of associative learning theory and behavioral experimentation in animals and has become a topic of considerable interest in the neuroscience of learning, memory, and emotion. Here, we review research and theories of extinction, both as a learning process and as a behavioral technique, and consider whether traditional understandings warrant a re-examination. We discuss the neurobiology, cognitive factors, and major computational theories, and revisit the predominant view that extinction results in new learning that interferes with expression of the original memory. Additionally, we reconsider the limitations of extinction as a technique to prevent the relapse of maladaptive behavior, and discuss novel approaches, informed by contemporary theoretical advances, that augment traditional extinction methods to target and potentially alter maladaptive memories. PMID:26447572

  9. Rethinking Extinction.

    PubMed

    Dunsmoor, Joseph E; Niv, Yael; Daw, Nathaniel; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2015-10-01

    Extinction serves as the leading theoretical framework and experimental model to describe how learned behaviors diminish through absence of anticipated reinforcement. In the past decade, extinction has moved beyond the realm of associative learning theory and behavioral experimentation in animals and has become a topic of considerable interest in the neuroscience of learning, memory, and emotion. Here, we review research and theories of extinction, both as a learning process and as a behavioral technique, and consider whether traditional understandings warrant a re-examination. We discuss the neurobiology, cognitive factors, and major computational theories, and revisit the predominant view that extinction results in new learning that interferes with expression of the original memory. Additionally, we reconsider the limitations of extinction as a technique to prevent the relapse of maladaptive behavior and discuss novel approaches, informed by contemporary theoretical advances, that augment traditional extinction methods to target and potentially alter maladaptive memories.

  10. Glucocorticoid receptors and extinction retention deficits in the single prolonged stress model.

    PubMed

    Knox, D; Nault, T; Henderson, C; Liberzon, I

    2012-10-25

    Single prolonged stress (SPS) is a rodent model of post traumatic stress disorder that is comprised of serial application of restraint (r), forced swim (fs), and ether (eth) followed by a 7-day quiescent period. SPS induces extinction retention deficits and it is believed that these deficits are caused by the combined stressful effect of serial exposure to r, fs, and eth. However, this hypothesis remains untested. Neurobiological mechanisms by which SPS induces extinction retention deficits are unknown, but SPS enhances glucocorticoid receptor (GR) expression in the hippocampus, which is critical for contextual modulation of extinction retrieval. Upregulation of GRs in extinction circuits may be a mechanism by which SPS induces extinction retention deficits, but this hypothesis has not been examined. In this study, we systematically altered the stressors that constitute SPS (i.e. r, fs, eth), generating a number of partial SPS (p-SPS) groups, and observed the effects SPS and p-SPSs had on extinction retention and GR levels in the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex (PFC). PFC GRs were assayed, because regions of the PFC are critical for maintaining extinction. We predicted that only exposure to full SPS would result in extinction retention deficits and enhance hippocampal and PFC GR levels. Only exposure to full SPS induced extinction retention deficits. Hippocampal and PFC GR expression was enhanced by SPS and most p-SPSs, however hippocampal GR expression was significantly larger following the full SPS exposure than all other conditions. Our findings suggest that the combined stressful effect of serial exposure to r, fs, and eth results in extinction retention deficits. The results also suggest that simple enhancements in GR expression in the hippocampus and PFC are insufficient to result in extinction retention deficits, but raise the possibility that a threshold-enhancement in hippocampal GR expression contributes to SPS-induced extinction retention deficits.

  11. Animal models of extinction-induced depression: loss of reward and its consequences.

    PubMed

    Huston, Joseph P; Silva, Maria A de Souza; Komorowski, Mara; Schulz, Daniela; Topic, Bianca

    2013-11-01

    The absence or loss of rewards or reinforcers holds a major role in the development of depression in humans. In spite of the prevalence of extinction-induced depression (EID) in humans, few attempts have been made to establish animal models thereof. Here we present the concept of extinction-related depression and summarize the results of two sets of studies in our attempt to create animal models of EID, one set based on extinction after positive reinforcement in the Skinner-box, the other on extinction after negative reinforcement - escape from water. We found various behaviors emitted during the extinction trials that responded to treatment with antidepressant drugs: Accordingly, the important behavioral marker for EID during extinction of escape from the water was immobility. During extinction after positive reinforcement the important indices for extinction-induced depression are the withdrawal from the former site of reward, biting behavior and rearing up on the hind legs. Avoidance behavior and biting may model aspects of human depressive behavior, which may include withdrawal or avoidance as well as aggressive-like behaviors.

  12. IceChrono1: a probabilistic model to compute a common and optimal chronology for several ice cores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parrenin, Frédéric; Bazin, Lucie; Capron, Emilie; Landais, Amaëlle; Lemieux-Dudon, Bénédicte; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

    2016-04-01

    Polar ice cores provide exceptional archives of past environmental conditions. The dating of ice cores and the estimation of the age scale uncertainty are essential to interpret the climate and environmental records that they contain. It is however a complex problem which involves different methods. Here, we present IceChrono1, a new probabilistic model integrating various sources of chronological information to produce a common and optimized chronology for several ice cores, as well as its uncertainty. IceChrono1 is based on the inversion of three quantities: the surface accumulation rate, the Lock-In Depth (LID) of air bubbles and the thinning function. The chronological information integrated into the model are: models of the sedimentation process (accumulation of snow, densification of snow into ice and air trapping, ice flow), ice and air dated horizons, ice and air depth intervals with known durations, Δdepth observations (depth shift between synchronous events recorded in the ice and in the air) and finally air and ice stratigraphic links in between ice cores. The optimization is formulated as a least squares problem, implying that all densities of probabilities are assumed to be Gaussian. It is numerically solved using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm and a numerical evaluation of the model's Jacobian. IceChrono follows an approach similar to that of the Datice model which was recently used to produce the AICC2012 chronology for 4 Antarctic ice cores and 1 Greenland ice core. IceChrono1 provides improvements and simplifications with respect to Datice from the mathematical, numerical and programming point of views. The capabilities of IceChrono is demonstrated on a case study similar to the AICC2012 dating experiment. We find results similar to those of Datice, within a few centuries, which is a confirmation of both IceChrono and Datice codes. We also test new functionalities with respect to the original version of Datice: observations as ice intervals

  13. An absolute chronology for early Egypt using radiocarbon dating and Bayesian statistical modelling.

    PubMed

    Dee, Michael; Wengrow, David; Shortland, Andrew; Stevenson, Alice; Brock, Fiona; Girdland Flink, Linus; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher

    2013-11-01

    The Egyptian state was formed prior to the existence of verifiable historical records. Conventional dates for its formation are based on the relative ordering of artefacts. This approach is no longer considered sufficient for cogent historical analysis. Here, we produce an absolute chronology for Early Egypt by combining radiocarbon and archaeological evidence within a Bayesian paradigm. Our data cover the full trajectory of Egyptian state formation and indicate that the process occurred more rapidly than previously thought. We provide a timeline for the First Dynasty of Egypt of generational-scale resolution that concurs with prevailing archaeological analysis and produce a chronometric date for the foundation of Egypt that distinguishes between historical estimates.

  14. Hotter, Faster: A Thermal Model for the H-Chondrite Parent Body Consistent with Chronology and Cooling Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McSween, H. Y., Jr.; Bennett, M. E., III

    1995-09-01

    HOTTER, FASTER: A THERMAL MODEL FOR THE H-CHONDRITE PARENT BODY CONSISTENT WITH CHRONOLOGY AND COOLING RATES. H. Y. McSween, Jr. and M. E. Bennett, III, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA. Because of the abundant sampling and relatively low shock levels of H chondrites, their thermal histories are more tightly constrained than for other ordinary chondrites; consequently, rigorous models for the thermal evolution of their parent asteroid can be formulated that are not possible for other chondrite groups. A revised thermal model for the H-chondrite parent asteroid [Bennett and McSween], based on heating by decay of 26Al, follows the formulation of [Miyamoto and Fujii] except: the unfounded constraint that the relative volumes of different petrologic types must mimic meteorite fall statistics is removed, a shortened thermal history of 60 Ma [Gopel et al] rather than 100 Ma is adopted, and improved geothermometry constraints and measurements of thermal properties [Yomogida and Matsui] are used. Our new model predicts a parent body of approximately 88 kilometers radius, containing a much larger volumetric proportion (71%) of H6 material than in the previous model, with a high thermal gradient and correspondingly small proportions of H5 and H4 material (together comprising 10%) near the surface. Constraints on chronology and cooling rates from H chondrites are used as independent tests of the model. 26Al heating requires that the body accreted 1.5-3.1 Ma after formation of CAIs to reach the measured peak temperature for H6 chondrites, consistent with the 3.0 + 2.6 Ma estimate from Pb/Pb chronology [Gopel et al]. Times of Pb isotopic closure, relative to CAIs, in H-chondrite phosphates (3-5 Ma for H4, 10-16 Ma for H5, 42-62 Ma for H6, from [Gopel et al]) precisely overlap the thermal model estimates. In particular, the markedly shorter duration of heating for H4-5 chondrites agrees with model predictions. The model also

  15. An absolute chronology for early Egypt using radiocarbon dating and Bayesian statistical modelling

    PubMed Central

    Dee, Michael; Wengrow, David; Shortland, Andrew; Stevenson, Alice; Brock, Fiona; Girdland Flink, Linus; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    The Egyptian state was formed prior to the existence of verifiable historical records. Conventional dates for its formation are based on the relative ordering of artefacts. This approach is no longer considered sufficient for cogent historical analysis. Here, we produce an absolute chronology for Early Egypt by combining radiocarbon and archaeological evidence within a Bayesian paradigm. Our data cover the full trajectory of Egyptian state formation and indicate that the process occurred more rapidly than previously thought. We provide a timeline for the First Dynasty of Egypt of generational-scale resolution that concurs with prevailing archaeological analysis and produce a chronometric date for the foundation of Egypt that distinguishes between historical estimates. PMID:24204188

  16. Limits to biodiversity cycles from a unified model of mass-extinction events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feulner, Georg

    2011-04-01

    Episodes of species mass extinction dramatically affected the evolution of life on Earth, but their causes remain a source of debate. Even more controversy surrounds the hypothesis of periodicity in the fossil record, with conflicting views still being published in the scientific literature, often even based on the same state-of-the-art datasets. From an empirical point of view, limitations of the currently available data on extinctions and possible causes remain an important issue. From a theoretical point of view, it is likely that a focus on single extinction causes and strong periodic forcings has strongly contributed to this controversy. Here I show that if there is a periodic extinction signal at all, it is much more likely to result from a combination of a comparatively weak periodic cause and various random factors. Tests of this unified model of mass extinctions on the available data show that the model is formally better than a model with random extinction causes only. However, the contribution of the periodic component is small compared to factors such as impacts or volcanic eruptions.

  17. Physical Dust Models for the Extinction toward Supernova 2014J in M82

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Jian; Jiang, B. W.; Li, Aigen; Li, Jun; Wang, Xiaofeng

    2015-07-01

    Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are powerful cosmological “standardizable candles” and the most precise distance indicators. However, a limiting factor in their use for precision cosmology rests on our ability to correct for the dust extinction toward them. SN 2014J in the starburst galaxy M82, the closest detected SN Ia in three decades, provides unparalleled opportunities to study the dust extinction toward an SN Ia. In order to derive the extinction as a function of wavelength, we model the color excesses toward SN 2014J, which are observationally derived over a wide wavelength range, in terms of dust models consisting of a mixture of silicate and graphite. The resulting extinction laws steeply, rise toward the far-ultraviolet, even steeper than that of the SMC. We infer a visual extinction of {A}V≈ 1.9 {mag}, a reddening of E(B-V)≈ 1.1 {mag}, and a total-to-selective extinction ratio of RV ≈ 1.7, consistent with that previously derived from photometric, spectroscopic, and polarimetric observations. The size distributions of the dust in the interstellar medium toward SN 2014J are skewed toward substantially smaller grains than that of the Milky Way and the SMC.

  18. Towards a Unified Model of Polarized Emission and Extinction from Interstellar Dust

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hensley, Brandon; Draine, Bruce T.

    2014-06-01

    We present models of interstellar grains that reproduce observational constraints on dust extinction, polarized extinction, infrared emission, and elemental abundances. Employing spheroidal graphite-PAH and "astrosilicate" grains of varying axial ratio, we constrain the size distribution and degree of alignment as a function of grain size. We discuss in particular the polarized emission from each model in the context of results from Planck as well as the effects of including contributions from ferromagnetic iron nanoparticles. We outline our next steps in developing a model of dust in the diffuse ISM by leveraging observational constraints on scattering and adapting our models to environments other than the diffuse ISM.

  19. Orbital Debris: A Chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Portree, Davis S. F. (Editor); Loftus, Joseph P., Jr. (Editor)

    1999-01-01

    This chronology covers the 37-year history of orbital debris concerns. It tracks orbital debris hazard creation, research, observation, experimentation, management, mitigation, protection, and policy. Included are debris-producing, events; U.N. orbital debris treaties, Space Shuttle and space station orbital debris issues; ASAT tests; milestones in theory and modeling; uncontrolled reentries; detection system development; shielding development; geosynchronous debris issues, including reboost policies: returned surfaces studies, seminar papers reports, conferences, and studies; the increasing effect of space activities on astronomy; and growing international awareness of the near-Earth environment.

  20. The Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglow Modeling Project: Foundational Statistics and Absorption & Extinction Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trotter, Adam Somers

    The Gamma-Ray Burst (GRB) Afterglow Modeling Project (AMP) will model, in a statistically sound and self-consistent way, every GRB afterglow observed since the first detection in 1997, using all available radio, infrared, optical, ultraviolet and X-ray data. The result will be a catalog of fitted empirical model parameters describing the intrinsic afterglow emission, and extinction due to dust and absorption due to gas along the line of sight to the GRB. This ever-growing catalog of fitted model parameters will allow us to infer the astrophysical properties of GRBs and their environments, and to explore their variety and evolution over the history of the universe. First, I present a new, broadly applicable statistical technique, the TRF statistic, for fitting model distributions to data in two dimensions, where the data have intrinsic uncertainties in both dimensions, and extrinsic scatter in both dimensions that is greater than can be accounted for by the intrinsic uncertainties alone. I demonstrate the properties of the TRF statistic, which is invertible but not scalable, and present an algorithm for obtaining an optimum scale for fits to a given data set. I then apply the TRF statistic to observations of interstellar extinction of stars along various Milky Way and Magellanic Cloud lines of sight, and to observations of Lyalpha forest flux deficits in quasars, to construct a comprehensive empirical model for extinction due to interstellar dust in the source frame and in the Milky Way, and absorption due to gas in the source frame and in the intergalactic medium. Combined with theoretical models of synchrotron emission from GRB jets, the resulting parameterization provides a framework for modeling the observed emission from most GRB afterglows. Furthermore, the extinction and absorption models are broadly applicable, in that they may be used to model observations of any extragalactic point source of radiation. Finally, I describe the results of model fitting to

  1. Fear Extinction as a Model for Synaptic Plasticity in Major Depressive Disorder

    PubMed Central

    Feige, Bernd; Blechert, Jens; Normann, Claus; Nissen, Christoph

    2014-01-01

    Background The neuroplasticity hypothesis of major depressive disorder proposes that a dysfunction of synaptic plasticity represents a basic pathomechanism of the disorder. Animal models of depression indicate enhanced plasticity in a ventral emotional network, comprising the amygdala. Here, we investigated fear extinction learning as a non-invasive probe for amygdala-dependent synaptic plasticity in patients with major depressive disorder and healthy controls. Methods Differential fear conditioning was measured in 37 inpatients with severe unipolar depression (International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, criteria) and 40 healthy controls. The eye-blink startle response, a subcortical output signal that is modulated by local synaptic plasticity in the amygdala in fear acquisition and extinction learning, was recorded as the primary outcome parameter. Results After robust and similar fear acquisition in both groups, patients with major depressive disorder showed significantly enhanced fear extinction learning in comparison to healthy controls, as indicated by startle responses to conditioned stimuli. The strength of extinction learning was positively correlated with the total illness duration. Conclusions The finding of enhanced fear extinction learning in major depressive disorder is consistent with the concept that the disorder is characterized by enhanced synaptic plasticity in the amygdala and the ventral emotional network. Clinically, the observation emphasizes the potential of successful extinction learning, the basis of exposure therapy, in anxiety-related disorders despite the frequent comorbidity of major depressive disorder. PMID:25545818

  2. Detecting Hidden Diversification Shifts in Models of Trait-Dependent Speciation and Extinction.

    PubMed

    Beaulieu, Jeremy M; O'Meara, Brian C

    2016-07-01

    The distribution of diversity can vary considerably from clade to clade. Attempts to understand these patterns often employ state-dependent speciation and extinction models to determine whether the evolution of a particular novel trait has increased speciation rates and/or decreased extinction rates. It is still unclear, however, whether these models are uncovering important drivers of diversification, or whether they are simply pointing to more complex patterns involving many unmeasured and co-distributed factors. Here we describe an extension to the popular state-dependent speciation and extinction models that specifically accounts for the presence of unmeasured factors that could impact diversification rates estimated for the states of any observed trait, addressing at least one major criticism of BiSSE (Binary State Speciation and Extinction) methods. Specifically, our model, which we refer to as HiSSE (Hidden State Speciation and Extinction), assumes that related to each observed state in the model are "hidden" states that exhibit potentially distinct diversification dynamics and transition rates than the observed states in isolation. We also demonstrate how our model can be used as character-independent diversification models that allow for a complex diversification process that is independent of the evolution of a character. Under rigorous simulation tests and when applied to empirical data, we find that HiSSE performs reasonably well, and can at least detect net diversification rate differences between observed and hidden states and detect when diversification rate differences do not correlate with the observed states. We discuss the remaining issues with state-dependent speciation and extinction models in general, and the important ways in which HiSSE provides a more nuanced understanding of trait-dependent diversification.

  3. Detecting Hidden Diversification Shifts in Models of Trait-Dependent Speciation and Extinction.

    PubMed

    Beaulieu, Jeremy M; O'Meara, Brian C

    2016-07-01

    The distribution of diversity can vary considerably from clade to clade. Attempts to understand these patterns often employ state-dependent speciation and extinction models to determine whether the evolution of a particular novel trait has increased speciation rates and/or decreased extinction rates. It is still unclear, however, whether these models are uncovering important drivers of diversification, or whether they are simply pointing to more complex patterns involving many unmeasured and co-distributed factors. Here we describe an extension to the popular state-dependent speciation and extinction models that specifically accounts for the presence of unmeasured factors that could impact diversification rates estimated for the states of any observed trait, addressing at least one major criticism of BiSSE (Binary State Speciation and Extinction) methods. Specifically, our model, which we refer to as HiSSE (Hidden State Speciation and Extinction), assumes that related to each observed state in the model are "hidden" states that exhibit potentially distinct diversification dynamics and transition rates than the observed states in isolation. We also demonstrate how our model can be used as character-independent diversification models that allow for a complex diversification process that is independent of the evolution of a character. Under rigorous simulation tests and when applied to empirical data, we find that HiSSE performs reasonably well, and can at least detect net diversification rate differences between observed and hidden states and detect when diversification rate differences do not correlate with the observed states. We discuss the remaining issues with state-dependent speciation and extinction models in general, and the important ways in which HiSSE provides a more nuanced understanding of trait-dependent diversification. PMID:27016728

  4. Dust in the small Magellanic Cloud. 2: Dust models from interstellar polarization and extinction data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodrigues, C. V.; Magalhaes, A. M.; Coyne, G. V.

    1995-01-01

    We study the dust in the Small Magellanic Cloud using our polarization and extinction data (Paper 1) and existing dust models. The data suggest that the monotonic SMC extinction curve is related to values of lambda(sub max), the wavelength of maximum polarization, which are on the average smaller than the mean for the Galaxy. On the other hand, AZV 456, a star with an extinction similar to that for the Galaxy, shows a value of lambda(sub max) similar to the mean for the Galaxy. We discuss simultaneous dust model fits to extinction and polarization. Fits to the wavelength dependent polarization data are possible for stars with small lambda(sub max). In general, they imply dust size distributions which are narrower and have smaller mean sizes compared to typical size distributions for the Galaxy. However, stars with lambda(sub max) close to the Galactic norm, which also have a narrower polarization curve, cannot be fit adequately. This holds true for all of the dust models considered. The best fits to the extinction curves are obtained with a power law size distribution by assuming that the cylindrical and spherical silicate grains have a volume distribution which is continuous from the smaller spheres to the larger cylinders. The size distribution for the cylinders is taken from the fit to the polarization. The 'typical', monotonic SMC extinction curve can be fit well with graphite and silicate grains if a small fraction of the SMC carbon is locked up in the grain. However, amorphous carbon and silicate grains also fit the data well. AZV456, which has an extinction curve similar to that for the Galaxy, has a UV bump which is too blue to be fit by spherical graphite grains.

  5. A Unified Model of Polarized Extinction and Emission from Interstellar Dust

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hensley, Brandon; Draine, Bruce T.

    2015-01-01

    Through full-sky observations of the polarized intensity of Galactic dust emission, the Planck satellite has furnished important new constraints on the composition, size, and shape of interstellar grains. We present new models of interstellar dust consisting of silicate and carbonaceous components of spheroidal shape that are consistent with available data on interstellar abundances, polarized and total extinction, and polarized and total emission in the diffuse interstellar medium. Possible contributions from ferromagnetic iron are also considered, including the polarization signatures of this component. We discuss updates to the Draine and Li 2007 optical properties of these components on the basis of new data, and present models that successfully reproduce the observed relatively flat NIR extinction curve. Finally, we discuss the prospects of extending our models to probe physical variations in the grain population in various Galactic environments, such as regions of high extinction, and in extragalactic sources, such as the Magellanic Clouds.

  6. Merging tree ring chronologies and climate system model simulated temperature by optimal interpolation algorithm in North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xin; Xing, Pei; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Nie, Suping; Huang, Jianbin; Wang, Shaowu; Tian, Qinhua

    2015-04-01

    A new dataset of annual mean surface temperature has been constructed over North America in recent 500 years by performing optimal interpolation (OI) algorithm. Totally, 149 series totally were screened out including 69 tree ring width (MXD) and 80 tree ring width (TRW) chronologies are screened from International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB). The simulated annual mean surface temperature derives from the past1000 experiment results of Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Different from existing research that applying data assimilation approach to (General Circulation Models) GCMs simulation, the errors of both the climate model simulation and tree ring reconstruction were considered, with a view to combining the two parts in an optimal way. Variance matching (VM) was employed to calibrate tree ring chronologies on CRUTEM4v, and corresponding errors were estimated through leave-one-out process. Background error covariance matrix was estimated from samples of simulation results in a running 30-year window in a statistical way. Actually, the background error covariance matrix was calculated locally within the scanning range (2000km in this research). Thus, the merging process continued with a time-varying local gain matrix. The merging method (MM) was tested by two kinds of experiments, and the results indicated standard deviation of errors can be reduced by about 0.3 degree centigrade lower than tree ring reconstructions and 0.5 degree centigrade lower than model simulation. During the recent Obvious decadal variability can be identified in MM results including the evident cooling (0.10 degree per decade) in 1940-60s, wherein the model simulation exhibit a weak increasing trend (0.05 degree per decade) instead. MM results revealed a compromised spatial pattern of the linear trend of surface temperature during a typical period (1601-1800 AD) in Little Ice Age, which basically accorded with the phase transitions of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and

  7. Accurate Modeling of X-ray Extinction by Interstellar Grains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffman, John; Draine, B. T.

    2016-02-01

    Interstellar abundance determinations from fits to X-ray absorption edges often rely on the incorrect assumption that scattering is insignificant and can be ignored. We show instead that scattering contributes significantly to the attenuation of X-rays for realistic dust grain size distributions and substantially modifies the spectrum near absorption edges of elements present in grains. The dust attenuation modules used in major X-ray spectral fitting programs do not take this into account. We show that the consequences of neglecting scattering on the determination of interstellar elemental abundances are modest; however, scattering (along with uncertainties in the grain size distribution) must be taken into account when near-edge extinction fine structure is used to infer dust mineralogy. We advertise the benefits and accuracy of anomalous diffraction theory for both X-ray halo analysis and near edge absorption studies. We present an open source Fortran suite, General Geometry Anomalous Diffraction Theory (GGADT), that calculates X-ray absorption, scattering, and differential scattering cross sections for grains of arbitrary geometry and composition.

  8. Fear extinction and BDNF: translating animal models of PTSD to the clinic.

    PubMed

    Andero, R; Ressler, K J

    2012-07-01

    Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is the most studied neurotrophin involved in synaptic plasticity processes that are required for long-term learning and memory. Specifically, BDNF gene expression and activation of its high-affinity tropomyosin-related kinase B (TrkB) receptor are necessary in the amygdala, hippocampus and prefrontal cortex for the formation of emotional memories, including fear memories. Among the psychiatric disorders with altered fear processing, there is post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) which is characterized by an inability to extinguish fear memories. Since BDNF appears to enhance extinction of fear, targeting impaired extinction in anxiety disorders such as PTSD via BDNF signalling may be an important and novel way to enhance treatment efficacy. The aim of this review is to provide a translational point of view that stems from findings in the BDNF regulation of synaptic plasticity and fear extinction. In addition, there are different systems that seem to alter fear extinction through BDNF modulation like the endocannabinoid system and the hypothalamic-pituitary adrenal axis. Recent work also finds that the pituitary adenylate cyclase-activating polypeptide and PAC1 receptor, which are upstream of BDNF activation, may be implicated in PTSD. Especially interesting are data that exogenous fear extinction enhancers such as antidepressants, histone deacetylases inhibitors and D-cycloserine, a partial N-methyl d-aspartate agonist, may act through or in concert with the BDNF-TrkB system. Finally, we review studies where recombinant BDNF and a putative TrkB agonist, 7,8-dihydroxyflavone, may enhance extinction of fear. These approaches may lead to novel agents that improve extinction in animal models and eventually humans.

  9. Estimating extinction risk with metapopulation models of large-scale fragmentation.

    PubMed

    Schnell, Jessica K; Harris, Grant M; Pimm, Stuart L; Russell, Gareth J

    2013-06-01

    Habitat loss is the principal threat to species. How much habitat remains-and how quickly it is shrinking-are implicitly included in the way the International Union for Conservation of Nature determines a species' risk of extinction. Many endangered species have habitats that are also fragmented to different extents. Thus, ideally, fragmentation should be quantified in a standard way in risk assessments. Although mapping fragmentation from satellite imagery is easy, efficient techniques for relating maps of remaining habitat to extinction risk are few. Purely spatial metrics from landscape ecology are hard to interpret and do not address extinction directly. Spatially explicit metapopulation models link fragmentation to extinction risk, but standard models work only at small scales. Counterintuitively, these models predict that a species in a large, contiguous habitat will fare worse than one in 2 tiny patches. This occurs because although the species in the large, contiguous habitat has a low probability of extinction, recolonization cannot occur if there are no other patches to provide colonists for a rescue effect. For 4 ecologically comparable bird species of the North Central American highland forests, we devised metapopulation models with area-weighted self-colonization terms; this reflected repopulation of a patch from a remnant of individuals that survived an adverse event. Use of this term gives extra weight to a patch in its own rescue effect. Species assigned least risk status were comparable in long-term extinction risk with those ranked as threatened. This finding suggests that fragmentation has had a substantial negative effect on them that is not accounted for in their Red List category.

  10. Chronologic model and transgressive-regressive signatures in the late neocene siliciclastic foundation (long key formation) of the Florida keys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guertin, L.A.; McNeill, D.F.

    1999-01-01

    Recent drilling of continuous cores in southernmost Florida has documented a thick unit of upper Neogene siliciclastics subjacent to surficial shallow-water Quaternary carbonates exposed on islands of the Florida Keys. The siliciclastics comprise the Long Key Formation and were identified in two cores collected from the middle and upper Florida Keys. Achronologic model based on new planktic foraminiferal biochronology and strontium-isotope chronology suggests the timing of siliddastic deposition and provides a basis for regional correlation. The chronologic model, supplemented by vertical trends in quartz grain size, pattern of planktic menardiiform coiling direction, and paleoenvironmental interpretations of benthic foraminiferal assemblages, shows that the Long Key Formation contains three intervals (I-III) of varying thickness, grain-size composition, and paleo-water depth. Interval I is uppermost Miocene. The quartz grains in Interval I fine upward from basal very coarse sand to fine and very fine sand. Benthic foraminifera indicate an upward shift from an outershelf to inner-shelf depositional environment. Interval II, deposited during the late early to early late Pliocene, contains reworked upper Miocene siliciclastics and faunas. In the upper Keys, quartz grains in Interval II range from very coarse sand that fines upward to very fine sand and then coarsens to very coarse and medium sand. In situ benthic faunas indicate an upward shift from outer-shelf to inner-shelf deposition. In the middle Keys, Interval II is different, with the quartz grains ranging primarily from medium to very fine sand. In situ benthic taxa indicate deposition on an inner shelf. In both the middle and upper Keys, the upper Pliocene siliciclastics of Interval III contain quartz grains ranging from very coarse to very fine sands that were deposited on an inner shelf. A sequence boundary between Interval I and Interval II is suggested by: an abrupt shift in the strontium

  11. The backscattering and extinction of visible and infrared radiation by selected major cloud models.

    PubMed

    Carrier, L W; Cato, G A; von Essen, K J

    1967-07-01

    Volume backscattering functions and optical extinction coefficients are computed for eight suggested major cloud models using the Mie theory for optical wavelengths of 0.488 micro, 0.694 micro, 1.06 micro, 4.0 micro, and 10.6 micro. Results show that there is no clear advantage of one wavelength over another for improving cloud transmission; however, backscattering is significantly reduced at the longer wavelengths. Variations in the optical properties of clouds are also discussed and calculations summarized to indicate the effects of cloud thickness, inhomogeneity, and geographical location on the backscatter function and extinction coefficient.

  12. Large extinctions in an evolutionary model: The role of innovation and keystone species

    PubMed Central

    Jain, Sanjay; Krishna, Sandeep

    2002-01-01

    The causes of major and rapid transitions observed in biological macroevolution as well as in the evolution of social systems are a subject of much debate. Here we identify the proximate causes of crashes and recoveries that arise dynamically in a model system in which populations of (molecular) species coevolve with their network of chemical interactions. Crashes are events that involve the rapid extinction of many species, and recoveries the assimilation of new ones. These are analyzed and classified in terms of the structural properties of the network. We find that in the absence of large external perturbation, “innovation” is a major cause of large extinctions and the prime cause of recoveries. Another major cause of crashes is the extinction of a “keystone species.” Different classes of causes produce crashes of different characteristic sizes. PMID:11842190

  13. Large extinctions in an evolutionary model: The role of innovation and keystone species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jain, Sanjay; Krishna, Sandeep

    2002-02-01

    The causes of major and rapid transitions observed in biological macroevolution as well as in the evolution of social systems are a subject of much debate. Here we identify the proximate causes of crashes and recoveries that arise dynamically in a model system in which populations of (molecular) species coevolve with their network of chemical interactions. Crashes are events that involve the rapid extinction of many species, and recoveries the assimilation of new ones. These are analyzed and classified in terms of the structural properties of the network. We find that in the absence of large external perturbation, "innovation" is a major cause of large extinctions and the prime cause of recoveries. Another major cause of crashes is the extinction of a "keystone species." Different classes of causes produce crashes of different characteristic sizes.

  14. Chronological hypoplasia: aesthetic management

    PubMed Central

    Jayam, Cheranjeevi; Bandlapalli, Anila; Patel, Nikunj; Choudhary, Rama Shankar Kashinath

    2014-01-01

    Enamel hypoplasia is defined as a break in the continuity of enamel with a reduction in the layers leading to depressions or grooves. Chronological hypoplasia is differentiated from other forms of hypoplasia due to its characteristic presentation (multiple, symmetrical, chronological pattern). Chronological hypoplasias are seen at the time tooth erupts into the oral cavity leading to several problems like aesthetic problems, tooth sensitivity, caries and early pulpal involvement. Prevention of interaction of aetiological factors is not possible because multiple factors are required for enamel synthesis. This paper highlights how to diagnose, intercept and treat chronological hypoplasias. It also mentions reasons for treating a case and different modalities available. PMID:24907208

  15. Toward an animal model of extinction-induced despair: focus on aging and physiological indices.

    PubMed

    Huston, Joseph P; Schulz, Daniela; Topic, Bianca

    2009-08-01

    Behaviors that are under the control of positive or negative reinforcers undergo extinction when the anticipated reward/reinforcer is withheld. Despair, an important symptom of environmentally determined depression in humans, can be generated by extinction, or the failure of expected reward to accrue. Although well known to clinicians dealing with depressive patients, an animal model has not been available for extinction-induced depression. We have made a beginning towards validating such a model, based on the extinction of negatively reinforced behavior in the rat, i.e., upon removal of the possibility to escape onto a safety platform in the water maze. As a marker for despair, we employed behavioral immobility, i.e., the cessation of swimming in the attempt to find safety from the water, presumably, a type of learned helplessness. This measure was sensitive to antidepressants and correlated with neurotransmitter contents, neurotrophins and hypothalamus-pituitary adrenal axis markers in selected sites of the brain. Given that some cases of depression in the elderly may be biologically distinct from others and from early-onset depression, and since particularly the aged are prone to experience extinction-induced despair, we compared aged (ca. 24 months old) animals with adults in most of our studies. We found a number of distinct differences in behavioral and biological measures, indicative of differences in propensity to, as well as response to, extinction-induced despair between aged and adults. Our results add to the body of evidence for differences in the neurobiological substrates of depressive disorders between aged and adults, with the implication for the requirement of different treatment strategies in these two populations. PMID:19350220

  16. Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

    PubMed

    Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

    2008-10-23

    Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

  17. Ice streaming and the demise of the Last British Ice Sheet: geomorphological evidence, modelling experiments, and cosmogenic nuclide chronology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradwell, T.; Hubbard, A.; Fabel, D.; Golledge, N.; Stoker, M.; Everest, J.; Finlayson, A.; Howe, J.

    2010-12-01

    We synthesise recent work on the palaeoglaciology of the British-Irish Ice Sheet, focusing on the glacial geomorphology preserved on the seabed around the northern UK [Bradwell et al., 2008]; and a suite of numerical modelling experiments spanning the last ~40 ka [Hubbard et al., 2009]. In addition, we present a new temporal dataset to better constrain the decay of ice stream sectors within the last British Ice Sheet. Our suite of cosmogenic exposure ages dovetails well with the emerging view recorded in other environmental proxies. Modelling experiments, forced by NGRIP ice-core data, show an extremely dynamic ice sheet drained by transient but recurrent ice streams which dynamically switch and fluctuate in extent and intensity on a centennial time-scale. Our Be-10 cosmogenic chronology sheds new light on the timing of ice stream activity and cessation, placing the separation of the British and Fennoscandian ice sheets at ~24 ka BP - closely associated with the iceberg discharge event Heinrich-2. In the NW sector, the Minch Ice Stream, a quasi-stable feature of the last British Ice Sheet, probably scavenged ice from an adjacent catchment shortly before its demise c. 18 ka BP. In the NE sector, a large ice stream in the Moray Firth continued to operate until c. 15 ka BP - whereby model simulations show a rapid collapse, within the space of 100 yrs. Ultimately, the resolution of such short-lived events lies within the uncertainties of currently available dating techniques. Hence, further high-temporal resolution studies are required to explore the role of internal (glaciological) vs external (eustatic and climatic) forcing on the stability of ice streams within marine-terminating ice sheets.

  18. Constraints on bed scale fracture chronology with a FEM mechanical model of folding: The case of Split Mountain (Utah, USA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sassi, W.; Guiton, M. L. E.; Leroy, Y. M.; Daniel, J.-M.; Callot, J.-P.

    2012-11-01

    A technique is presented for improving the structural analysis of natural fractures development in large scale fold structures. A 3D restoration of a fold provides the external displacement loading conditions to solve, by the finite element method, the forward mechanical problem of an idealized rock material with a stress-strain relationship based on the activation of pervasive fracture sets. In this elasto-plasticity constitutive law, any activated fracture set contributes to the total plastic strain by either an opening or a sliding mode of rock failure. Inherited versus syn-folding fracture sets development can be studied using this mechanical model. The workflow of this methodology was applied to the Weber sandstone formation deformed by forced folding at Split Mountain Anticline, Utah for which the different fracture sets were created and developed successively during the Sevier and the syn-folding Laramide orogenic phases. The field observations at the top stratigraphic surface of the Weber sandstone lead to classify the fracture sets into a pre-fold WNW-ESE fracture set, and a NE-SW fracture set post-dating the former. The development and relative chronology of the fracture sets are discussed based on the geomechanical modeling results. Starting with a 3D restoration of the Split Mountain Anticline, three fold-fracture development models were generated, alternately assuming that the WNW-ESE fracture set is either present or absent prior to folding process. Depending on the initial fracture configuration, the calculated fracture patterns are markedly different, showing that assuming a WNW-ESE joint set to predate the fold best correlates with field observations. This study is a first step addressing the complex problem of identification of fold-related fracturing events using an elementary concept of rock mechanics. When tight to complementary field observations, including petrography, diagenesis and burial history, the approach can be used to better

  19. Persistence, extinction and spatio-temporal synchronization of SIRS spatial models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Quan-Xing; Wang, Rong-Hua; Jin, Zhen

    2009-07-01

    Spatially explicit models are widely used in today's mathematical ecology and epidemiology to study persistence and extinction of populations as well as their spatial patterns. Here we extend the earlier work on static dispersal between neighboring individuals to the mobility of individuals as well as multi-patch environments. As is commonly found, the basic reproductive ratio is maximized for the evolutionarily stable strategy for disease persistence in mean field theory. This has important implications, as it implies that for a wide range of parameters the infection rate tends to a maximum. This is opposite to the present result obtained from spatially explicit models, which is that the infection rate is limited by an upper bound. We observe the emergence of trade-offs of extinction and persistence for the parameters of the infection period and infection rate, and show the extinction time as having a linear relationship with respect to system size. We further find that higher mobility can pronouncedly promote the persistence of the spread of epidemics, i.e., a phase transition occurs from the extinction domain to the persistence domain, and the wavelength of the spirals increases with the mobility ratio enhancement and will ultimately saturate at a certain value. Furthermore, for the multi-patch case, we find that lower coupling strength leads to anti-phase oscillation of the infected fraction, while higher coupling strength corresponds to in-phase oscillation.

  20. A cross-immunization model for the extinction of old influenza strains

    PubMed Central

    Uekermann, Florian; Sneppen, Kim

    2016-01-01

    Given the frequent mutation of antigenic features, the constancy of genetic and antigenic diversity of influenza within a subtype is surprising. While the emergence of new strains and antigenic features is commonly attributed to selection by the human immune system, the mechanism that ensures the extinction of older strains remains controversial. To replicate this dynamics of replacement current models utilize mechanisms such as short-lived strain-transcending immunity, a direct competition for hosts, stochastic extinction or constrained antigenic evolution. Building on the idea of short-lived immunity we introduce a minimal model that exhibits the aforementioned dynamics of replacement. Our model relies only on competition due to an antigen specific immune-response in an unconstrained antigenic space. Furthermore the model explains the size of typical influenza epidemics as well as the tendency that new epidemics are associated with mutations of old antigens. PMID:27174658

  1. A cross-immunization model for the extinction of old influenza strains.

    PubMed

    Uekermann, Florian; Sneppen, Kim

    2016-05-13

    Given the frequent mutation of antigenic features, the constancy of genetic and antigenic diversity of influenza within a subtype is surprising. While the emergence of new strains and antigenic features is commonly attributed to selection by the human immune system, the mechanism that ensures the extinction of older strains remains controversial. To replicate this dynamics of replacement current models utilize mechanisms such as short-lived strain-transcending immunity, a direct competition for hosts, stochastic extinction or constrained antigenic evolution. Building on the idea of short-lived immunity we introduce a minimal model that exhibits the aforementioned dynamics of replacement. Our model relies only on competition due to an antigen specific immune-response in an unconstrained antigenic space. Furthermore the model explains the size of typical influenza epidemics as well as the tendency that new epidemics are associated with mutations of old antigens.

  2. Stochastic extinction and persistence of a parasite-host epidemiological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yuting; Shan, Meijing; Lian, Xinze; Wang, Weiming

    2016-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the stochastic extinction and persistence of a parasite-host epidemiological model. We show that the global dynamics of the stochastic model can be governed by the basic reproduction number R0S: if R0S < 1, under mild extra conditions, the disease goes to extinction with probability one and the disease-free dynamics occurs; while R0S > 1, under mild extra conditions, the disease persists and endemic dynamics occurs almost surely, the solutions of the stochastic model fluctuate around the steady state of the deterministic model, and a unique stationary distribution can be found. Based on realistic parameters of Daphnia-microparasite system, numerical simulations have been performed to verify/extend our analytical results. Epidemiologically, we find that: (1) Large environment fluctuations can suppress the outbreak of disease; (2) The distributions are governed by R0S; (3) The noise perturbations can be beneficial to control the spread of disease on average.

  3. The evolution and extinction of the ichthyosaurs from the perspective of quantitative ecospace modelling.

    PubMed

    Dick, Daniel G; Maxwell, Erin E

    2015-07-01

    The role of niche specialization and narrowing in the evolution and extinction of the ichthyosaurs has been widely discussed in the literature. However, previous studies have concentrated on a qualitative discussion of these variables only. Here, we use the recently developed approach of quantitative ecospace modelling to provide a high-resolution quantitative examination of the changes in dietary and ecological niche experienced by the ichthyosaurs throughout their evolution in the Mesozoic. In particular, we demonstrate that despite recent discoveries increasing our understanding of taxonomic diversity among the ichthyosaurs in the Cretaceous, when viewed from the perspective of ecospace modelling, a clear trend of ecological contraction is visible as early as the Middle Jurassic. We suggest that this ecospace redundancy, if carried through to the Late Cretaceous, could have contributed to the extinction of the ichthyosaurs. Additionally, our results suggest a novel model to explain ecospace change, termed the 'migration model'. PMID:26156130

  4. A cross-immunization model for the extinction of old influenza strains.

    PubMed

    Uekermann, Florian; Sneppen, Kim

    2016-01-01

    Given the frequent mutation of antigenic features, the constancy of genetic and antigenic diversity of influenza within a subtype is surprising. While the emergence of new strains and antigenic features is commonly attributed to selection by the human immune system, the mechanism that ensures the extinction of older strains remains controversial. To replicate this dynamics of replacement current models utilize mechanisms such as short-lived strain-transcending immunity, a direct competition for hosts, stochastic extinction or constrained antigenic evolution. Building on the idea of short-lived immunity we introduce a minimal model that exhibits the aforementioned dynamics of replacement. Our model relies only on competition due to an antigen specific immune-response in an unconstrained antigenic space. Furthermore the model explains the size of typical influenza epidemics as well as the tendency that new epidemics are associated with mutations of old antigens. PMID:27174658

  5. Optical modeling of aerosol extinction for remote sensing in the marine environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaloshin, G. A.

    2013-05-01

    A microphysical model is presented for the surface layer marine and coastal atmospheric aerosols that is based on long-term observations of size distributions for 0.01-100 μm particles in different geographic sites. The fundamental feature of the model is a parameterization of amplitudes and widths for aerosol modes of the aerosol size distribution function (ASDF) as functions of fetch and wind speed. The shape of the ASDF and its dependence on meteorological parameters, altitudes above sea level (H), fetch (X), wind speed (U) and relative humidity (RH) are investigated. The spectral profiles of the aerosol extinction coefficients calculated by MaexPro (Marine Aerosol Extinction Profiles) are in good agreement with observational data and the numerical results obtained from the Navy Aerosol Model (NAM) and the Advanced Navy Aerosol Model (ANAM). Moreover, MaexPro was found to be an accurate and reliable tool for investigation of the optical properties of atmospheric aerosols.

  6. A cross-immunization model for the extinction of old influenza strains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uekermann, Florian; Sneppen, Kim

    2016-05-01

    Given the frequent mutation of antigenic features, the constancy of genetic and antigenic diversity of influenza within a subtype is surprising. While the emergence of new strains and antigenic features is commonly attributed to selection by the human immune system, the mechanism that ensures the extinction of older strains remains controversial. To replicate this dynamics of replacement current models utilize mechanisms such as short-lived strain-transcending immunity, a direct competition for hosts, stochastic extinction or constrained antigenic evolution. Building on the idea of short-lived immunity we introduce a minimal model that exhibits the aforementioned dynamics of replacement. Our model relies only on competition due to an antigen specific immune-response in an unconstrained antigenic space. Furthermore the model explains the size of typical influenza epidemics as well as the tendency that new epidemics are associated with mutations of old antigens.

  7. Cognitive enhancers for facilitating drug cue extinction: insights from animal models.

    PubMed

    Nic Dhonnchadha, Bríd Áine; Kantak, Kathleen M

    2011-08-01

    Given the success of cue exposure (extinction) therapy combined with a cognitive enhancer for reducing anxiety, it is anticipated that this approach will prove more efficacious than exposure therapy alone in preventing relapse in individuals with substance use disorders. Several factors may undermine the efficacy of exposure therapy for substance use disorders, but we suspect that neurocognitive impairments associated with chronic drug use are an important contributing factor. Numerous insights on these issues are gained from research using animal models of addiction. In this review, the relationship between brain sites whose learning, memory and executive functions are impaired by chronic drug use and brain sites that are important for effective drug cue extinction learning is explored first. This is followed by an overview of animal research showing improved treatment outcome for drug addiction (e.g. alcohol, amphetamine, cocaine, heroin) when explicit extinction training is conducted in combination with acute dosing of a cognitive-enhancing drug. The mechanism by which cognitive enhancers are thought to exert their benefits is by facilitating consolidation of drug cue extinction memory after activation of glutamatergic receptors. Based on the encouraging work in animals, factors that may be important for the treatment of drug addiction are considered.

  8. A discrete Markov metapopulation model for persistence and extinction of species.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Colin J; Shtilerman, Elad; Stone, Lewi

    2016-09-01

    A simple discrete generation Markov metapopulation model is formulated for studying the persistence and extinction dynamics of a species in a given region which is divided into a large number of sites or patches. Assuming a linear site occupancy probability from one generation to the next we obtain exact expressions for the time evolution of the expected number of occupied sites and the mean-time to extinction (MTE). Under quite general conditions we show that the MTE, to leading order, is proportional to the logarithm of the initial number of occupied sites and in precise agreement with similar expressions for continuous time-dependent stochastic models. Our key contribution is a novel application of generating function techniques and simple asymptotic methods to obtain a second order asymptotic expression for the MTE which is extremely accurate over the entire range of model parameter values.

  9. The evolution and extinction of the ichthyosaurs from the perspective of quantitative ecospace modelling

    PubMed Central

    Dick, Daniel G.; Maxwell, Erin E.

    2015-01-01

    The role of niche specialization and narrowing in the evolution and extinction of the ichthyosaurs has been widely discussed in the literature. However, previous studies have concentrated on a qualitative discussion of these variables only. Here, we use the recently developed approach of quantitative ecospace modelling to provide a high-resolution quantitative examination of the changes in dietary and ecological niche experienced by the ichthyosaurs throughout their evolution in the Mesozoic. In particular, we demonstrate that despite recent discoveries increasing our understanding of taxonomic diversity among the ichthyosaurs in the Cretaceous, when viewed from the perspective of ecospace modelling, a clear trend of ecological contraction is visible as early as the Middle Jurassic. We suggest that this ecospace redundancy, if carried through to the Late Cretaceous, could have contributed to the extinction of the ichthyosaurs. Additionally, our results suggest a novel model to explain ecospace change, termed the ‘migration model’. PMID:26156130

  10. Age and dynamics of the Namib Sand Sea: A review of chronological evidence and possible landscape development models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stone, A. E. C.

    2013-06-01

    -derived material from the Orange River delta) the weight of evidence points towards the dominance of an Orange River source, with localised contribution from fluvially-derived escarpment material close to river courses. Despite the fact that it remains difficult to definitively distinguish between recent Orange River sediment and recycled TSS, because of a great mineralogical similarity, an Orange River source contemporaneous with the accumulation of the sand sea appears to be favoured. Models of landscape development rely on an understanding of the source region, and an Orange River source suggests growth and extension from south to north (a wind-displaced Orange Delta), rather than localised reworking of sediment from the TSS. One proposed model, developed for the southern part of the sand sea, divides accumulation into two distinct phases with different palaeoenvironmental conditions: large draas accumulating under enhanced Pleistocene trade winds and superimposed features on the eastern dune flanks formed by westerly winds moving material over the crest. However, the latter phase could equally be explained by a northerly migration of the superimposed features, and there is still too little in the way of chronological control to construct a coherent picture of dune accumulation and migration for the sand sea as a whole. There are also interesting insights from conceptualising dune bedform patterning in sand seas as a time-dependent, self-organising, complex system, rather than necessarily requiring changing palaeoenvironmental conditions for different scales of features, with some of this research referring directly to the Namib Sand Sea. Refining the details of the accumulation of the Namib Sand Sea requires both detailed site-specific studies and joined-up analysis.

  11. A model of amygdala-hippocampal-prefrontal interaction in fear conditioning and extinction in animals

    PubMed Central

    Moustafa, Ahmed A.; Gilbertson, Mark W.; Orr, Scott P.; Herzallah, Mohammad M.; Servatius, Richard. J.; Myers, Catherine E.

    2012-01-01

    Empirical research has shown that the amygdala, hippocampus, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) are involved in fear conditioning. However, the functional contribution of each brain area and the nature of their interactions are not clearly understood. Here, we extend existing neural network models of the functional roles of the hippocampus in classical conditioning to include interactions with the amygdala and prefrontal cortex. We apply the model to fear conditioning, in which animals learn physiological (e.g. heart rate) and behavioral (e.g. freezing) responses to stimuli that have been paired with a highly aversive event (e.g. electrical shock). The key feature of our model is that learning of these conditioned responses in the central nucleus of the amygdala is modulated by two separate processes, one from basolateral amygdala and signaling a positive prediction error, and one from the vmPFC, via the intercalated cells of the amygdala, and signaling a negative prediction error. In addition, we propose that hippocampal input to both vmPFC and basolateral amygdala is essential for contextual modulation of fear acquisition and extinction. The model is sufficient to account for a body of data from various animal fear conditioning paradigms, including acquisition, extinction, reacquisition, and context specificity effects. Consistent with studies on lesioned animals, our model shows that damage to the vmPFC impairs extinction, while damage to the hippocampus impairs extinction in a different context (e.g., a different conditioning chamber from that used in initial training in animal experiments). We also discuss model limitations and predictions, including the effects of number of training trials on fear conditioning. PMID:23164732

  12. A model of amygdala-hippocampal-prefrontal interaction in fear conditioning and extinction in animals.

    PubMed

    Moustafa, Ahmed A; Gilbertson, Mark W; Orr, Scott P; Herzallah, Mohammad M; Servatius, Richard J; Myers, Catherine E

    2013-02-01

    Empirical research has shown that the amygdala, hippocampus, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) are involved in fear conditioning. However, the functional contribution of each brain area and the nature of their interactions are not clearly understood. Here, we extend existing neural network models of the functional roles of the hippocampus in classical conditioning to include interactions with the amygdala and prefrontal cortex. We apply the model to fear conditioning, in which animals learn physiological (e.g. heart rate) and behavioral (e.g. freezing) responses to stimuli that have been paired with a highly aversive event (e.g. electrical shock). The key feature of our model is that learning of these conditioned responses in the central nucleus of the amygdala is modulated by two separate processes, one from basolateral amygdala and signaling a positive prediction error, and one from the vmPFC, via the intercalated cells of the amygdala, and signaling a negative prediction error. In addition, we propose that hippocampal input to both vmPFC and basolateral amygdala is essential for contextual modulation of fear acquisition and extinction. The model is sufficient to account for a body of data from various animal fear conditioning paradigms, including acquisition, extinction, reacquisition, and context specificity effects. Consistent with studies on lesioned animals, our model shows that damage to the vmPFC impairs extinction, while damage to the hippocampus impairs extinction in a different context (e.g., a different conditioning chamber from that used in initial training in animal experiments). We also discuss model limitations and predictions, including the effects of number of training trials on fear conditioning.

  13. Inhibiting corticosterone synthesis during fear memory formation exacerbates cued fear extinction memory deficits within the single prolonged stress model.

    PubMed

    Keller, Samantha M; Schreiber, William B; Stanfield, Briana R; Knox, Dayan

    2015-01-01

    Using the single prolonged stress (SPS) animal model of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), previous studies suggest that enhanced glucocorticoid receptor (GR) expression leads to cued fear extinction retention deficits. However, it is unknown how the endogenous ligand of GRs, corticosterone (CORT), may contribute to extinction retention deficits in the SPS model. Given that CORT synthesis during fear learning is critical for fear memory consolidation and SPS enhances GR expression, CORT synthesis during fear memory formation could strengthen fear memory in SPS rats by enhancing GR activation during fear learning. In turn, this could lead to cued fear extinction retention deficits. We tested the hypothesis that CORT synthesis during fear learning leads to cued fear extinction retention deficits in SPS rats by administering the CORT synthesis inhibitor metyrapone to SPS and control rats prior to fear conditioning, and observed the effect this had on extinction memory. Inhibiting CORT synthesis during fear memory formation in control rats tended to decrease cued freezing, though this effect never reached statistical significance. Contrary to our hypothesis, inhibiting CORT synthesis during fear memory formation disrupted extinction retention in SPS rats. This finding suggests that even though SPS exposure leads to cued fear extinction memory deficits, CORT synthesis during fear memory formation enhances extinction retention in SPS rats. This suggests that stress-induced CORT synthesis in previously stressed rats can be beneficial.

  14. On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, R.M.

    2007-01-01

    In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

  15. Extinction properties of single-walled carbon nanotubes: Two-fluid model

    SciTech Connect

    Moradi, Afshin

    2014-03-15

    The extinction spectra of a single-walled carbon nanotube are investigated, within the framework of the vector wave function method in conjunction with the hydrodynamic model. Both polarizations of the incident plane wave (TE and TM with respect to the x-z plane) are treated. Electronic excitations on the nanotube surface are modeled by an infinitesimally thin layer of a two-dimensional electron gas represented by two interacting fluids, which takes into account the different nature of the σ and π electrons. Numerical results show that strong interaction between the fluids gives rise to the splitting of the extinction spectra into two peaks in quantitative agreement with the π and σ + π plasmon energies.

  16. Glacial and marine chronology of Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strom, Robert G.; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Johnson, Natasha; Knight, Christine

    1992-01-01

    A summary is given of the glacial and marine chronology of Mars. Hydrological models of oceans and ice sheets, the cratering record, hydrological cycling, and episodic glaciation are discussed. Evidence for a Noachian ocean is evaluated.

  17. Fossil biogeography: a new model to infer dispersal, extinction and sampling from palaeontological data.

    PubMed

    Silvestro, Daniele; Zizka, Alexander; Bacon, Christine D; Cascales-Miñana, Borja; Salamin, Nicolas; Antonelli, Alexandre

    2016-04-01

    Methods in historical biogeography have revolutionized our ability to infer the evolution of ancestral geographical ranges from phylogenies of extant taxa, the rates of dispersals, and biotic connectivity among areas. However, extant taxa are likely to provide limited and potentially biased information about past biogeographic processes, due to extinction, asymmetrical dispersals and variable connectivity among areas. Fossil data hold considerable information about past distribution of lineages, but suffer from largely incomplete sampling. Here we present a new dispersal-extinction-sampling (DES) model, which estimates biogeographic parameters using fossil occurrences instead of phylogenetic trees. The model estimates dispersal and extinction rates while explicitly accounting for the incompleteness of the fossil record. Rates can vary between areas and through time, thus providing the opportunity to assess complex scenarios of biogeographic evolution. We implement the DES model in a Bayesian framework and demonstrate through simulations that it can accurately infer all the relevant parameters. We demonstrate the use of our model by analysing the Cenozoic fossil record of land plants and inferring dispersal and extinction rates across Eurasia and North America. Our results show that biogeographic range evolution is not a time-homogeneous process, as assumed in most phylogenetic analyses, but varies through time and between areas. In our empirical assessment, this is shown by the striking predominance of plant dispersals from Eurasia into North America during the Eocene climatic cooling, followed by a shift in the opposite direction, and finally, a balance in biotic interchange since the middle Miocene. We conclude by discussing the potential of fossil-based analyses to test biogeographic hypotheses and improve phylogenetic methods in historical biogeography. PMID:26977065

  18. Fossil biogeography: a new model to infer dispersal, extinction and sampling from palaeontological data.

    PubMed

    Silvestro, Daniele; Zizka, Alexander; Bacon, Christine D; Cascales-Miñana, Borja; Salamin, Nicolas; Antonelli, Alexandre

    2016-04-01

    Methods in historical biogeography have revolutionized our ability to infer the evolution of ancestral geographical ranges from phylogenies of extant taxa, the rates of dispersals, and biotic connectivity among areas. However, extant taxa are likely to provide limited and potentially biased information about past biogeographic processes, due to extinction, asymmetrical dispersals and variable connectivity among areas. Fossil data hold considerable information about past distribution of lineages, but suffer from largely incomplete sampling. Here we present a new dispersal-extinction-sampling (DES) model, which estimates biogeographic parameters using fossil occurrences instead of phylogenetic trees. The model estimates dispersal and extinction rates while explicitly accounting for the incompleteness of the fossil record. Rates can vary between areas and through time, thus providing the opportunity to assess complex scenarios of biogeographic evolution. We implement the DES model in a Bayesian framework and demonstrate through simulations that it can accurately infer all the relevant parameters. We demonstrate the use of our model by analysing the Cenozoic fossil record of land plants and inferring dispersal and extinction rates across Eurasia and North America. Our results show that biogeographic range evolution is not a time-homogeneous process, as assumed in most phylogenetic analyses, but varies through time and between areas. In our empirical assessment, this is shown by the striking predominance of plant dispersals from Eurasia into North America during the Eocene climatic cooling, followed by a shift in the opposite direction, and finally, a balance in biotic interchange since the middle Miocene. We conclude by discussing the potential of fossil-based analyses to test biogeographic hypotheses and improve phylogenetic methods in historical biogeography.

  19. Notes on the Statistical Power of the Binary State Speciation and Extinction (BiSSE) Model

    PubMed Central

    Gamisch, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    The Binary State Speciation and Extinction (BiSSE) method is one of the most popular tools for investigating the rates of diversification and character evolution. Yet, based on previous simulation studies, it is commonly held that the BiSSE method requires phylogenetic trees of fairly large sample sizes (>300 taxa) in order to distinguish between the different models of speciation, extinction, or transition rate asymmetry. Here, the power of the BiSSE method is reevaluated by simulating trees of both small and large sample sizes (30, 60, 90, and 300 taxa) under various asymmetry models and root state assumptions. Results show that the power of the BiSSE method can be much higher, also in trees of small sample size, for detecting differences in speciation rate asymmetry than anticipated earlier. This, however, is not a consequence of any conceptual or mathematical flaw in the method per se but rather of assumptions about the character state at the root of the simulated trees and thus the underlying macroevolutionary model, which led to biased results and conclusions in earlier power assessments. As such, these earlier simulation studies used to determine the power of BiSSE were not incorrect but biased, leading to an overestimation of type-II statistical error for detecting differences in speciation rate but not for extinction and transition rates. PMID:27486297

  20. Notes on the Statistical Power of the Binary State Speciation and Extinction (BiSSE) Model.

    PubMed

    Gamisch, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    The Binary State Speciation and Extinction (BiSSE) method is one of the most popular tools for investigating the rates of diversification and character evolution. Yet, based on previous simulation studies, it is commonly held that the BiSSE method requires phylogenetic trees of fairly large sample sizes (>300 taxa) in order to distinguish between the different models of speciation, extinction, or transition rate asymmetry. Here, the power of the BiSSE method is reevaluated by simulating trees of both small and large sample sizes (30, 60, 90, and 300 taxa) under various asymmetry models and root state assumptions. Results show that the power of the BiSSE method can be much higher, also in trees of small sample size, for detecting differences in speciation rate asymmetry than anticipated earlier. This, however, is not a consequence of any conceptual or mathematical flaw in the method per se but rather of assumptions about the character state at the root of the simulated trees and thus the underlying macroevolutionary model, which led to biased results and conclusions in earlier power assessments. As such, these earlier simulation studies used to determine the power of BiSSE were not incorrect but biased, leading to an overestimation of type-II statistical error for detecting differences in speciation rate but not for extinction and transition rates. PMID:27486297

  1. How partial reinforcement of food cues affects the extinction and reacquisition of appetitive responses. A new model for dieting success?

    PubMed

    van den Akker, Karolien; Havermans, Remco C; Bouton, Mark E; Jansen, Anita

    2014-10-01

    Animals and humans can easily learn to associate an initially neutral cue with food intake through classical conditioning, but extinction of learned appetitive responses can be more difficult. Intermittent or partial reinforcement of food cues causes especially persistent behaviour in animals: after exposure to such learning schedules, the decline in responding that occurs during extinction is slow. After extinction, increases in responding with renewed reinforcement of food cues (reacquisition) might be less rapid after acquisition with partial reinforcement. In humans, it may be that the eating behaviour of some individuals resembles partial reinforcement schedules to a greater extent, possibly affecting dieting success by interacting with extinction and reacquisition. Furthermore, impulsivity has been associated with less successful dieting, and this association might be explained by impulsivity affecting the learning and extinction of appetitive responses. In the present two studies, the effects of different reinforcement schedules and impulsivity on the acquisition, extinction, and reacquisition of appetitive responses were investigated in a conditioning paradigm involving food rewards in healthy humans. Overall, the results indicate both partial reinforcement schedules and, possibly, impulsivity to be associated with worse extinction performance. A new model of dieting success is proposed: learning histories and, perhaps, certain personality traits (impulsivity) can interfere with the extinction and reacquisition of appetitive responses to food cues and they may be causally related to unsuccessful dieting.

  2. Stone tools and foraging in northern Madagascar challenge Holocene extinction models

    PubMed Central

    Dewar, Robert E.; Radimilahy, Chantal; Wright, Henry T.; Jacobs, Zenobia; Kelly, Gwendolyn O.; Berna, Francesco

    2013-01-01

    Past research on Madagascar indicates that village communities were established about AD 500 by people of both Indonesian and East African heritage. Evidence of earlier visits is scattered and contentious. Recent archaeological excavations in northern Madagascar provide evidence of occupational sites with microlithic stone technologies related to foraging for forest and coastal resources. A forager occupation of one site dates to earlier than 2000 B.C., doubling the length of Madagascar’s known occupational history, and thus the time during which people exploited Madagascar’s environments. We detail stratigraphy, chronology, and artifacts from two rock shelters. Ambohiposa near Iharana (Vohémar) on the northeast coast, yielded a stratified assemblage with small flakes, microblades, and retouched crescentic and trapezoidal tools, probably projectile elements, made on cherts and obsidian, some brought more that 200 km. 14C dates are contemporary with the earliest villages. No food remains are preserved. Lakaton’i Anja near Antsiranana in the north yielded several stratified assemblages. The latest assemblage is well dated to A.D. 1050–1350, by 14C and optically stimulated luminescence dating and pottery imported from the Near East and China. Below is a series of stratified assemblages similar to Ambohiposa. 14C and optically stimulated luminescence dates indicate occupation from at least 2000 B.C. Faunal remains indicate a foraging pattern. Our evidence shows that foragers with a microlithic technology were active in Madagascar long before the arrival of farmers and herders and before many Late Holocene faunal extinctions. The differing effects of historically distinct economies must be identified and understood to reconstruct Holocene histories of human environmental impact. PMID:23858456

  3. Stone tools and foraging in northern Madagascar challenge Holocene extinction models.

    PubMed

    Dewar, Robert E; Radimilahy, Chantal; Wright, Henry T; Jacobs, Zenobia; Kelly, Gwendolyn O; Berna, Francesco

    2013-07-30

    Past research on Madagascar indicates that village communities were established about AD 500 by people of both Indonesian and East African heritage. Evidence of earlier visits is scattered and contentious. Recent archaeological excavations in northern Madagascar provide evidence of occupational sites with microlithic stone technologies related to foraging for forest and coastal resources. A forager occupation of one site dates to earlier than 2000 B.C., doubling the length of Madagascar's known occupational history, and thus the time during which people exploited Madagascar's environments. We detail stratigraphy, chronology, and artifacts from two rock shelters. Ambohiposa near Iharana (Vohémar) on the northeast coast, yielded a stratified assemblage with small flakes, microblades, and retouched crescentic and trapezoidal tools, probably projectile elements, made on cherts and obsidian, some brought more that 200 km. (14)C dates are contemporary with the earliest villages. No food remains are preserved. Lakaton'i Anja near Antsiranana in the north yielded several stratified assemblages. The latest assemblage is well dated to A.D. 1050-1350, by (14)C and optically stimulated luminescence dating and pottery imported from the Near East and China. Below is a series of stratified assemblages similar to Ambohiposa. (14)C and optically stimulated luminescence dates indicate occupation from at least 2000 B.C. Faunal remains indicate a foraging pattern. Our evidence shows that foragers with a microlithic technology were active in Madagascar long before the arrival of farmers and herders and before many Late Holocene faunal extinctions. The differing effects of historically distinct economies must be identified and understood to reconstruct Holocene histories of human environmental impact. PMID:23858456

  4. Stone tools and foraging in northern Madagascar challenge Holocene extinction models.

    PubMed

    Dewar, Robert E; Radimilahy, Chantal; Wright, Henry T; Jacobs, Zenobia; Kelly, Gwendolyn O; Berna, Francesco

    2013-07-30

    Past research on Madagascar indicates that village communities were established about AD 500 by people of both Indonesian and East African heritage. Evidence of earlier visits is scattered and contentious. Recent archaeological excavations in northern Madagascar provide evidence of occupational sites with microlithic stone technologies related to foraging for forest and coastal resources. A forager occupation of one site dates to earlier than 2000 B.C., doubling the length of Madagascar's known occupational history, and thus the time during which people exploited Madagascar's environments. We detail stratigraphy, chronology, and artifacts from two rock shelters. Ambohiposa near Iharana (Vohémar) on the northeast coast, yielded a stratified assemblage with small flakes, microblades, and retouched crescentic and trapezoidal tools, probably projectile elements, made on cherts and obsidian, some brought more that 200 km. (14)C dates are contemporary with the earliest villages. No food remains are preserved. Lakaton'i Anja near Antsiranana in the north yielded several stratified assemblages. The latest assemblage is well dated to A.D. 1050-1350, by (14)C and optically stimulated luminescence dating and pottery imported from the Near East and China. Below is a series of stratified assemblages similar to Ambohiposa. (14)C and optically stimulated luminescence dates indicate occupation from at least 2000 B.C. Faunal remains indicate a foraging pattern. Our evidence shows that foragers with a microlithic technology were active in Madagascar long before the arrival of farmers and herders and before many Late Holocene faunal extinctions. The differing effects of historically distinct economies must be identified and understood to reconstruct Holocene histories of human environmental impact.

  5. Towards a better preclinical model of PTSD: characterizing animals with weak extinction, maladaptive stress responses and low plasma corticosterone.

    PubMed

    Reznikov, Roman; Diwan, Mustansir; Nobrega, José N; Hamani, Clement

    2015-02-01

    Most of the available preclinical models of PTSD have focused on isolated behavioural aspects and have not considered individual variations in response to stress. We employed behavioural criteria to identify and characterize a subpopulation of rats that present several features analogous to PTSD-like states after exposure to classical fear conditioning. Outbred Sprague-Dawley rats were segregated into weak- and strong-extinction groups on the basis of behavioural scores during extinction of conditioned fear responses. Animals were subsequently tested for anxiety-like behaviour in the open-field test (OFT), novelty suppressed feeding (NSF) and elevated plus maze (EPM). Baseline plasma corticosterone was measured prior to any behavioural manipulation. In a second experiment, rats underwent OFT, NSF and EPM prior to being subjected to fear conditioning to ascertain whether or not pre-stress levels of anxiety-like behaviours could predict extinction scores. We found that 25% of rats exhibit low extinction rates of conditioned fear, a feature that was associated with increased anxiety-like behaviour across multiple tests in comparison to rats showing strong extinction. In addition, weak-extinction animals showed low levels of corticosterone prior to fear conditioning, a variable that seemed to predict extinction recall scores. In a separate experiment, anxiety measures taken prior to fear conditioning were not predictive of a weak-extinction phenotype, suggesting that weak-extinction animals do not show detectable traits of anxiety in the absence of a stressful experience. These findings suggest that extinction impairment may be used to identify stress-vulnerable rats, thus providing a useful model for elucidating mechanisms and investigating potential treatments for PTSD.

  6. Retrieval of aerosol refractive index from extinction spectra with a damped harmonic-oscillator band model.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Gareth E; Bass, Stephen F; Grainger, Roy G; Lambert, Alyn

    2005-03-01

    A new method for the retrieval of the spectral refractive indices of micrometer-sized particles from infrared aerosol extinction spectra has been developed. With this method we use a classical damped harmonic-oscillator model of molecular absorption in conjunction with Mie scattering to model extinction spectra, which we then fit to the measurements using a numerical optimal estimation algorithm. The main advantage of this method over the more traditional Kramers-Kronig approach is that it allows the full complex refractive-index spectra, along with the parameters of the particle size distribution, to be retrieved from a single extinction spectrum. The retrieval scheme has been extensively characterized and has been found to provide refractive indices with a maximum uncertainty of approximately 10% (with a minimum of approximately 0.1%). Comparison of refractive indices calculated from measurements of a ternary solution of HNO3, H2SO4, and H2O with those published in J. Phys. Chem. A 104, 783 (2000) show similar differences as found by other authors.

  7. Climate wavelet spectrum estimation under chronology uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenoir, G.; Crucifix, M.

    2012-04-01

    Several approaches to estimate the chronology of palaeoclimate records exist in the literature: simple interpolation between the tie points, orbital tuning, alignment on other data... These techniques generate a single estimate of the chronology. More recently, statistical generators of chronologies have appeared (e.g. OXCAL, BCHRON) allowing the construction of thousands of chronologies given the tie points and their uncertainties. These techniques are based on advanced statistical methods. They allow one to take into account the uncertainty of the timing of each climatic event recorded into the core. On the other hand, when interpreting the data, scientists often rely on time series analysis, and especially on spectral analysis. Given that paleo-data are composed of a large spectrum of frequencies, are non-stationary and are highly noisy, the continuous wavelet transform turns out to be a suitable tool to analyse them. The wavelet periodogram, in particular, is helpful to interpret visually the time-frequency behaviour of the data. Here, we combine statistical methods to generate chronologies with the power of continuous wavelet transform. Some interesting applications then come up: comparison of time-frequency patterns between two proxies (extracted from different cores), between a proxy and a statistical dynamical model, and statistical estimation of phase-lag between two filtered signals. All these applications consider explicitly the uncertainty in the chronology. The poster presents mathematical developments on the wavelet spectrum estimation under chronology uncertainties as well as some applications to Quaternary data based on marine and ice cores.

  8. The basic reproduction number and the probability of extinction for a dynamic epidemic model.

    PubMed

    Neal, Peter

    2012-03-01

    We consider the spread of an epidemic through a population divided into n sub-populations, in which individuals move between populations according to a Markov transition matrix Σ and infectives can only make infectious contacts with members of their current population. Expressions for the basic reproduction number, R₀, and the probability of extinction of the epidemic are derived. It is shown that in contrast to contact distribution models, the distribution of the infectious period effects both the basic reproduction number and the probability of extinction of the epidemic in the limit as the total population size N→∞. The interactions between the infectious period distribution and the transition matrix Σ mean that it is not possible to draw general conclusions about the effects on R₀ and the probability of extinction. However, it is shown that for n=2, the basic reproduction number, R₀, is maximised by a constant length infectious period and is decreasing in ς, the speed of movement between the two populations.

  9. The basic reproduction number and the probability of extinction for a dynamic epidemic model.

    PubMed

    Neal, Peter

    2012-03-01

    We consider the spread of an epidemic through a population divided into n sub-populations, in which individuals move between populations according to a Markov transition matrix Σ and infectives can only make infectious contacts with members of their current population. Expressions for the basic reproduction number, R₀, and the probability of extinction of the epidemic are derived. It is shown that in contrast to contact distribution models, the distribution of the infectious period effects both the basic reproduction number and the probability of extinction of the epidemic in the limit as the total population size N→∞. The interactions between the infectious period distribution and the transition matrix Σ mean that it is not possible to draw general conclusions about the effects on R₀ and the probability of extinction. However, it is shown that for n=2, the basic reproduction number, R₀, is maximised by a constant length infectious period and is decreasing in ς, the speed of movement between the two populations. PMID:22269870

  10. Soluble Model of Evolution and Extinction Dynamics in a Rugged Fitness Landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibani, Paolo

    1997-08-01

    We consider a continuum version of a previously introduced and numerically studied model of macroevolution [P. Sibani, M. R. Schimdt, and P. Alstrøm, Phys. Rev. Lett. 75, 2055 (1995)] in which agents evolve by an optimization process in a rugged fitness landscape and die due to their competitive interactions. We first formulate dynamical equations for the fitness distribution and the survival probability. Secondly, we analytically derive the t-2 law which characterizes the lifetime distribution of biological genera. Thirdly, we discuss other dynamical properties of the model as the rate of extinction and conclude with a brief discussion.

  11. Extinction and persistence of a stochastic nonlinear SIS epidemic model with jumps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ge, Qing; Ji, Guilin; Xu, Jiabo; Fan, Xiaolin

    2016-11-01

    In this paper, Brownian motion and L e ´ vy jumps are introduced to a SIS type epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate. The dynamical behavior of the considered model is investigated. In order to reveal the extinction and permanence of the disease, two threshold values R˜0 ,R¯0 are showed. We find that if R˜0 < 1, the disease may die out, and when R¯0 > 1, the disease may be persistent. Finally, the numerical simulations are presented to illustrate our mathematical results.

  12. On extinction time of a generalized endemic chain-binomial model.

    PubMed

    Aydogmus, Ozgur

    2016-09-01

    We considered a chain-binomial epidemic model not conferring immunity after infection. Mean field dynamics of the model has been analyzed and conditions for the existence of a stable endemic equilibrium are determined. The behavior of the chain-binomial process is probabilistically linked to the mean field equation. As a result of this link, we were able to show that the mean extinction time of the epidemic increases at least exponentially as the population size grows. We also present simulation results for the process to validate our analytical findings. PMID:27404209

  13. Synchronous extinction of North America's Pleistocene mammals.

    PubMed

    Faith, J Tyler; Surovell, Todd A

    2009-12-01

    The late Pleistocene witnessed the extinction of 35 genera of North American mammals. The last appearance dates of 16 of these genera securely fall between 12,000 and 10,000 radiocarbon years ago (approximately 13,800-11,400 calendar years B.P.), although whether the absence of fossil occurrences for the remaining 19 genera from this time interval is the result of sampling error or temporally staggered extinctions is unclear. Analysis of the chronology of extinctions suggests that sampling error can explain the absence of terminal Pleistocene last appearance dates for the remaining 19 genera. The extinction chronology of North American Pleistocene mammals therefore can be characterized as a synchronous event that took place 12,000-10,000 radiocarbon years B.P. Results favor an extinction mechanism that is capable of wiping out up to 35 genera across a continent in a geologic instant.

  14. Fossil biogeography: a new model to infer dispersal, extinction and sampling from palaeontological data

    PubMed Central

    Zizka, Alexander; Bacon, Christine D.; Cascales-Miñana, Borja; Salamin, Nicolas; Antonelli, Alexandre

    2016-01-01

    Methods in historical biogeography have revolutionized our ability to infer the evolution of ancestral geographical ranges from phylogenies of extant taxa, the rates of dispersals, and biotic connectivity among areas. However, extant taxa are likely to provide limited and potentially biased information about past biogeographic processes, due to extinction, asymmetrical dispersals and variable connectivity among areas. Fossil data hold considerable information about past distribution of lineages, but suffer from largely incomplete sampling. Here we present a new dispersal–extinction–sampling (DES) model, which estimates biogeographic parameters using fossil occurrences instead of phylogenetic trees. The model estimates dispersal and extinction rates while explicitly accounting for the incompleteness of the fossil record. Rates can vary between areas and through time, thus providing the opportunity to assess complex scenarios of biogeographic evolution. We implement the DES model in a Bayesian framework and demonstrate through simulations that it can accurately infer all the relevant parameters. We demonstrate the use of our model by analysing the Cenozoic fossil record of land plants and inferring dispersal and extinction rates across Eurasia and North America. Our results show that biogeographic range evolution is not a time-homogeneous process, as assumed in most phylogenetic analyses, but varies through time and between areas. In our empirical assessment, this is shown by the striking predominance of plant dispersals from Eurasia into North America during the Eocene climatic cooling, followed by a shift in the opposite direction, and finally, a balance in biotic interchange since the middle Miocene. We conclude by discussing the potential of fossil-based analyses to test biogeographic hypotheses and improve phylogenetic methods in historical biogeography. PMID:26977065

  15. Could Ocean Acidification Have Caused the End-Permian Mass Extinction? - An Earth System Model Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, Y.; Kump, L. R.; Ridgwell, A.

    2013-12-01

    The end-Permian is associated with a 3-5‰ carbon isotope excursion in the ocean-atmosphere system within 20 kyr, most likely explained by a rapid and large amount of greenhouse gas emission. This has led to the hypothesis that it was ocean acidification that was the primary driver for the end-Permian marine mass extinction event. However, the total carbon emissions and degree of ocean acidification associated with the carbon isotope excursion are currently poorly constrained. To address this, we conduct a series of experiments varying initial and boundary conditions using an Earth system model (GENIE: http://cgenie.seao2.org/). We then invert the model by forcing the atmosphere δ13C to track our prescribed carbon isotopes on a reliable time scale derived from the recently published Meishan section in South China at each time step. The carbon isotope records are statistically treated to remove the noise that could result in unrealistic fluctuations in the derivatives of δ13C. The models are run for ~100 kyr from the initial sharp drop in δ13C (~60 kyr prior to the onset of the extinction event) to its initial recovery phase (~30 kyr after the onset of the extinction event). We test four isotopically distinctive sources, including mantle volcanic source (-9‰), organic matter (-25‰), thermogenic methane (-40‰) and biogenic methane (-60‰) and derive the corresponding carbon emissions consistent with the observed isotopic excursion for each. We also test the importance of the lack of pelagic carbonate production during the late Paleozoic and run the model configured both as a 'Neritan' (shallow carbonate production only) and 'Cretan' (both shallow benthic and open ocean pelagic) ocean scenarios.

  16. Extinction of drug- and withdrawal-paired cues in animal models: relevance to the treatment of addiction.

    PubMed

    Myers, Karyn M; Carlezon, William A

    2010-11-01

    Conditioned drug craving and withdrawal elicited by cues paired with drug use or acute withdrawal are among the many factors contributing to compulsive drug taking. Understanding how to stop these cues from having these effects is a major goal of addiction research. Extinction is a form of learning in which associations between cues and the events they predict are weakened by exposure to the cues in the absence of those events. Evidence from animal models suggests that conditioned responses to drug cues can be extinguished, although the degree to which this occurs in humans is controversial. Investigations into the neurobiological substrates of extinction of conditioned drug craving and withdrawal may facilitate the successful use of drug cue extinction within clinical contexts. While this work is still in the early stages, there are indications that extinction of drug- and withdrawal-paired cues shares neural mechanisms with extinction of conditioned fear. Using the fear extinction literature as a template, it is possible to organize the observations on drug cue extinction into a cohesive framework.

  17. Extinction of drug- and withdrawal-paired cues in animal models: Relevance to the treatment of addiction

    PubMed Central

    Myers, Karyn M.; Carlezon, William A.

    2010-01-01

    Conditioned drug craving and withdrawal elicited by cues paired with drug use or acute withdrawal are among the many factors contributing to compulsive drug taking. Understanding how to stop these cues from having these effects is a major goal of addiction research. Extinction is a form of learning in which associations between cues and the events they predict are weakened by exposure to the cues in the absence of those events. Evidence from animal models suggests that conditioned responses to drug cues can be extinguished, although the degree to which this occurs in humans is controversial. Investigations into the neurobiological substrates of extinction of conditioned drug craving and withdrawal may facilitate the successful use of drug cue extinction within clinical contexts. While this work is still in the early stages, there are indications that extinction of drug- and withdrawal-paired cues shares neural mechanisms with extinction of conditioned fear. Using the fear extinction literature as a template, it is possible to organize the observations on drug cue extinction into a cohesive framework. PMID:20109490

  18. A review and synthesis of late Pleistocene extinction modeling: progress delayed by mismatches between ecological realism, interpretation, and methodological transparency.

    PubMed

    Yule, Jeffrey V; Fournier, Robert J; Jensen, Christopher X J; Yang, Jinyan

    2014-06-01

    Late Pleistocene extinctions occurred globally over a period of about 50,000 years, primarily affecting mammals of > or = 44 kg body mass (i.e., megafauna) first in Australia, continuing in Eurasia and, finally, in the Americas. Polarized debate about the cause(s) of the extinctions centers on the role of climate change and anthropogenic factors (especially hunting). Since the late 1960s, investigators have developed mathematical models to simulate the ecological interactions that might have contributed to the extinctions. Here, we provide an overview of the various methodologies used and conclusions reached in the modeling literature, addressing both the strengths and weaknesses of modeling as an explanatory tool. Although late Pleistocene extinction models now provide a solid foundation for viable future work, we conclude, first, that single models offer less compelling support for their respective explanatory hypotheses than many realize; second, that disparities in methodology (both in terms of model parameterization and design) prevent meaningful comparison between models and, more generally, progress from model to model in increasing our understanding of these extinctions; and third, that recent models have been presented and possibly developed without sufficient regard for the transparency of design that facilitates scientific progress. PMID:24984323

  19. A review and synthesis of late Pleistocene extinction modeling: progress delayed by mismatches between ecological realism, interpretation, and methodological transparency.

    PubMed

    Yule, Jeffrey V; Fournier, Robert J; Jensen, Christopher X J; Yang, Jinyan

    2014-06-01

    Late Pleistocene extinctions occurred globally over a period of about 50,000 years, primarily affecting mammals of > or = 44 kg body mass (i.e., megafauna) first in Australia, continuing in Eurasia and, finally, in the Americas. Polarized debate about the cause(s) of the extinctions centers on the role of climate change and anthropogenic factors (especially hunting). Since the late 1960s, investigators have developed mathematical models to simulate the ecological interactions that might have contributed to the extinctions. Here, we provide an overview of the various methodologies used and conclusions reached in the modeling literature, addressing both the strengths and weaknesses of modeling as an explanatory tool. Although late Pleistocene extinction models now provide a solid foundation for viable future work, we conclude, first, that single models offer less compelling support for their respective explanatory hypotheses than many realize; second, that disparities in methodology (both in terms of model parameterization and design) prevent meaningful comparison between models and, more generally, progress from model to model in increasing our understanding of these extinctions; and third, that recent models have been presented and possibly developed without sufficient regard for the transparency of design that facilitates scientific progress.

  20. Geochemistry and chronology of the Bunburra Rockhole ungrouped achondrite

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spivak-Birndorf, Lev J.; Bouvier, Audrey; Benedix, Gretchen K.; Hammond, Samantha; Brennecka, Gregory A.; Howard, Kieren; Rogers, Nick; Wadhwa, Meenakshi; Bland, Philip A.; Spurný, Pavel; Towner, Martin C.

    2015-05-01

    Bunburra Rockhole is a unique basaltic achondrite that has many mineralogical and petrographic characteristics in common with the noncumulate eucrites, but differs in its oxygen isotope composition. Here, we report a study of the mineralogy, petrology, geochemistry, and chronology of Bunburra Rockhole to better understand the petrogenesis of this meteorite and compare it to the eucrites. The geochemistry of bulk samples and of pyroxene, plagioclase, and Ca-phosphate in Bunburra Rockhole is similar to that of typical noncumulate eucrites. Chronological data for Bunburra Rockhole indicate early formation, followed by slow cooling and perhaps multiple subsequent heating events, which is also similar to some noncumulate eucrites. The 26Al-26Mg extinct radionuclide chronometer was reset in Bunburra Rockhole after the complete decay of 26Al, but a slight excess in the radiogenic 26Mg in a bulk sample allows the determination of a model 26Al-26Mg age that suggests formation of the parent melt for this meteorite from its source magma within the first ~3 Ma of the beginning of the solar system. The 207Pb-206Pb absolute chronometer is also disturbed in Bunburra Rockhole minerals, but a whole-rock isochron provides a re-equilibration age of ~4.1 Ga, most likely caused by impact heating. The mineralogy, geochemistry, and chronology of Bunburra Rockhole demonstrate the similarities of this achondrite to the eucrites, and suggest that it formed from a parent melt with a composition similar to that for noncumulate eucrites and subsequently experienced a thermal history and evolution comparable to that of eucritic basalts. This implies the formation of multiple differentiated parent bodies in the early solar system that had nearly identical bulk elemental compositions and petrogenetic histories, but different oxygen isotope compositions inherited from the solar nebula.

  1. New Interstellar Dust Models Consistent with Interstellar Extinction, Emission and Abundances Constraints

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zubko, V.; Dwek, E.; Arendt, R. G.; Oegerle, William (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    We present new interstellar dust models that are consistent with both, the FUV to near-IR extinction and infrared (IR) emission measurements from the diffuse interstellar medium. The models are characterized by different dust compositions and abundances. The problem we solve consists of determining the size distribution of the various dust components of the model. This problem is a typical ill-posed inversion problem which we solve using the regularization approach. We reproduce the Li Draine (2001, ApJ, 554, 778) results, however their model requires an excessive amount of interstellar silicon (48 ppM of hydrogen compared to the 36 ppM available for an ISM of solar composition) to be locked up in dust. We found that dust models consisting of PAHs, amorphous silicate, graphite, and composite grains made up from silicates, organic refractory, and water ice, provide an improved fit to the extinction and IR emission measurements, while still requiring a subsolar amount of silicon to be in the dust. This research was supported by NASA Astrophysical Theory Program NRA 99-OSS-01.

  2. On the inference of function from structure using biomechanical modelling and simulation of extinct organisms.

    PubMed

    Hutchinson, John R

    2012-02-23

    Biomechanical modelling and simulation techniques offer some hope for unravelling the complex inter-relationships of structure and function perhaps even for extinct organisms, but have their limitations owing to this complexity and the many unknown parameters for fossil taxa. Validation and sensitivity analysis are two indispensable approaches for quantifying the accuracy and reliability of such models or simulations. But there are other subtleties in biomechanical modelling that include investigator judgements about the level of simplicity versus complexity in model design or how uncertainty and subjectivity are dealt with. Furthermore, investigator attitudes toward models encompass a broad spectrum between extreme credulity and nihilism, influencing how modelling is conducted and perceived. Fundamentally, more data and more testing of methodology are required for the field to mature and build confidence in its inferences. PMID:21666064

  3. Skylab: A chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newkirk, R. W.; Ertel, I. D.; Brooks, C. G.

    1977-01-01

    The Skylab Program was specifically designed to conduct a series of experiments from beyond the earth's atmosphere. Since the number and types of experiments conducted during the operational phase of Skylab were constantly changing, rather than encumber the body of the chronology with these changes, a lengthy appendix on experiments is included in this document. This appendix identifies the principle investigators and coinvestigators; gives the types, numbers, and descriptions of the experiments; explains the purpose of the various experiments; and, where possible, gives the results or findings of the experiments. The body of the Skylab chronology is divided into three parts; early space station activities, Apollo applications, and Skylab development and operations.

  4. Stochastic extinction of tumor cells due to synchronization effect through time periodic treatment in a tumor-immune interaction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aisu, Ryota; Horita, Takehiko

    The response to a time periodic treatment of the immunotherapy in a stochastic model of tumor-immune interaction is numerically investigated. Due to the effect of synchronization among the intrinsic oscillation and the treatment, an enhanced extinction of the tumor cells is observed. It suggests that compared with the static treatment, by controlling the period of the treatment, the time periodic treatment could be an effective way of treatment leading to tumor extinction.

  5. Extinction in periodic competitive stage-structured Lotka-Volterra model with the effects of toxic substances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Zhong; Chen, Fengde

    2009-09-01

    In this paper, we consider a periodic competitive stage-structured Lotka-Volterra model with the effects of toxic substances. It is shown that toxic substances play an important role in the extinction of species. We obtain a set of sufficient conditions which guarantee that one of the components is driven to extinction while the other is globally attractive. The numerical simulation of an example verifies our main results.

  6. Modeling habitat split: landscape and life history traits determine amphibian extinction thresholds.

    PubMed

    Fonseca, Carlos Roberto; Coutinho, Renato M; Azevedo, Franciane; Berbert, Juliana M; Corso, Gilberto; Kraenkel, Roberto A

    2013-01-01

    Habitat split is a major force behind the worldwide decline of amphibian populations, causing community change in richness and species composition. In fragmented landscapes, natural remnants, the terrestrial habitat of the adults, are frequently separated from streams, the aquatic habitat of the larvae. An important question is how this landscape configuration affects population levels and if it can drive species to extinction locally. Here, we put forward the first theoretical model on habitat split which is particularly concerned on how split distance - the distance between the two required habitats - affects population size and persistence in isolated fragments. Our diffusive model shows that habitat split alone is able to generate extinction thresholds. Fragments occurring between the aquatic habitat and a given critical split distance are expected to hold viable populations, while fragments located farther away are expected to be unoccupied. Species with higher reproductive success and higher diffusion rate of post-metamorphic youngs are expected to have farther critical split distances. Furthermore, the model indicates that negative effects of habitat split are poorly compensated by positive effects of fragment size. The habitat split model improves our understanding about spatially structured populations and has relevant implications for landscape design for conservation. It puts on a firm theoretical basis the relation between habitat split and the decline of amphibian populations.

  7. Consequences of extinction training on associative and non-associative fear in a mouse model of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD).

    PubMed

    Golub, Yulia; Mauch, Christoph P; Dahlhoff, Maik; Wotjak, Carsten T

    2009-12-28

    A common approach to the clinical treatment of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) has focused on the facilitation of fear extinction through cognitive behavioural therapy that involves both safe exposure to the trauma-related cues and subsequent changes in conditioned stimulus-unconditioned stimulus (CS-US) contingency expectations. PTSD symptoms can be tracked back to pathologically modified associative fear, hyperarousal and a time-dependent fear generalization. We have used a mouse model of PTSD that is based on a brief exposure to an inescapable foot shock in order to investigate the influence of early (starting 1 day after the shock) and late (starting 1 month after the shock) extinction training. Both early and late extinction training led to a long-lasting reduction of contextual and generalized fear, but only early extinction caused an amelioration of hyperarousal. Consequently, our results suggest early post-shock intervention as a successful strategy for reducing hyperarousal in the aftermath of a trauma.

  8. Chronology. Classroom Focus.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGoldrick, Neale

    1995-01-01

    Presents a chronology of important dates and events in the struggle for women's rights and women's suffrage. Begins in 1648 with the first call for women's suffrage in Maryland and concludes in 1920 with the passage of the 19th Amendment by Tennessee. (CFR)

  9. Bacterial colonization and extinction on marine aggregates: stochastic model of species presence and abundance

    PubMed Central

    Kramer, Andrew M; Lyons, M Maille; Dobbs, Fred C; Drake, John M

    2013-01-01

    Organic aggregates provide a favorable habitat for aquatic microbes, are efficiently filtered by shellfish, and may play a major role in the dynamics of aquatic pathogens. Quantifying this role requires understanding how pathogen abundance in the water and aggregate size interact to determine the presence and abundance of pathogen cells on individual aggregates. We build upon current understanding of the dynamics of bacteria and bacterial grazers on aggregates to develop a model for the dynamics of a bacterial pathogen species. The model accounts for the importance of stochasticity and the balance between colonization and extinction. Simulation results suggest that while colonization increases linearly with background density and aggregate size, extinction rates are expected to be nonlinear on small aggregates in a low background density of the pathogen. Under these conditions, we predict lower probabilities of pathogen presence and reduced abundance on aggregates compared with predictions based solely on colonization. These results suggest that the importance of aggregates to the dynamics of aquatic bacterial pathogens may be dependent on the interaction between aggregate size and background pathogen density, and that these interactions are strongly influenced by ecological interactions and pathogen traits. The model provides testable predictions and can be a useful tool for exploring how species-specific differences in pathogen traits may alter the effect of aggregates on disease transmission. PMID:24340173

  10. A mathematical model for expected time to extinction of pathogenic bacteria through antibiotic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, M. K.; Nandi, S.; Roy, P. K.

    2016-04-01

    Application of antibiotics in human system to prevent bacterial diseases like Gastritis, Ulcers, Meningitis, Pneumonia and Gonorrhea are indispensable. Antibiotics saved innumerable lives and continue to be a strong support for therapeutic application against pathogenic bacteria. In human system, bacterial diseases occur when pathogenic bacteria gets into the body and begin to reproduce and crowd out healthy bacteria. In this process, immature bacteria releases enzyme which is essential for bacterial cell-wall biosynthesis. After complete formation of cell wall, immature bacteria are converted to mature or virulent bacteria which are harmful to us during bacterial infections. Use of antibiotics as drug inhibits the bacterial cell wall formation. After application of antibiotics within body, the released bacterial enzyme binds with antibiotic molecule instead of its functional site during the cell wall synthesis in a competitive inhibition approach. As a consequence, the bacterial cell-wall formation as well as maturation process of pathogenic bacteria is halted and the disease is cured with lysis of bacterial cells. With this idea, a mathematical model has been developed in the present research investigation to review the inhibition of biosynthesis of bacterial cell wall by the application of antibiotics as drug in the light of enzyme kinetics. This approach helps to estimate the expected time to extinction of the pathogenic bacteria. Our mathematical approach based on the enzyme kinetic model for finding out expected time to extinction contributes favorable results for understanding of disease dynamics. Analytical and numerical results based on simulated findings validate our mathematical model.

  11. Does Litter Size Variation Affect Models of Terrestrial Carnivore Extinction Risk and Management?

    PubMed Central

    Devenish-Nelson, Eleanor S.; Stephens, Philip A.; Harris, Stephen; Soulsbury, Carl; Richards, Shane A.

    2013-01-01

    Background Individual variation in both survival and reproduction has the potential to influence extinction risk. Especially for rare or threatened species, reliable population models should adequately incorporate demographic uncertainty. Here, we focus on an important form of demographic stochasticity: variation in litter sizes. We use terrestrial carnivores as an example taxon, as they are frequently threatened or of economic importance. Since data on intraspecific litter size variation are often sparse, it is unclear what probability distribution should be used to describe the pattern of litter size variation for multiparous carnivores. Methodology/Principal Findings We used litter size data on 32 terrestrial carnivore species to test the fit of 12 probability distributions. The influence of these distributions on quasi-extinction probabilities and the probability of successful disease control was then examined for three canid species – the island fox Urocyon littoralis, the red fox Vulpes vulpes, and the African wild dog Lycaon pictus. Best fitting probability distributions differed among the carnivores examined. However, the discretised normal distribution provided the best fit for the majority of species, because variation among litter-sizes was often small. Importantly, however, the outcomes of demographic models were generally robust to the distribution used. Conclusion/Significance These results provide reassurance for those using demographic modelling for the management of less studied carnivores in which litter size variation is estimated using data from species with similar reproductive attributes. PMID:23469140

  12. High precision dating of mass extinction events: a combined zircon geochronology, apatite tephrochronology, and Bayesian age modelling approach of the Permian-Triassic boundary extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baresel, Björn; Bucher, Hugo; Brosse, Morgane; Bagherpour, Borhan; Schaltegger, Urs

    2016-04-01

    Chemical abrasion isotope dilution thermal ionization mass spectrometry (CA-ID-TIMS) U-Pb dating of single-zircon crystals is preferably applied to tephra beds intercalated in sedimentary sequences. By assuming that the zircon crystallization age closely approximate that of the volcanic eruption and ash deposition, U-Pb zircon geochronology is the preferred approach for dating mass extinction events (such as the Permian-Triassic boundary mass extinction) in the sedimentary record. As tephra from large volcanic eruptions is often transported over long distances, it additionally provide an invaluable tool for stratigraphic correlation across distant geologic sections. Therefore, the combination of high-precision zircon geochronology with apatite chemistry of the same tephra bed (so called apatite tephrochronology) provides a robust fingerprint of one particular volcanic eruption. In addition we provide coherent Bayesian model ages for the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) mass extinction, then compare it with PTB model ages at Meishan after Burgess et al. (2014). We will present new high-precision U-Pb zircon dates for a series of volcanic ash beds in deep- and shallow-marine Permian-Triassic sections in the Nanpanjiang Basin, South China. In addition, apatite crystals out of the same ash beds were analysed focusing on their halogen (F, Cl) and trace-element (e.g. Fe, Mg, REE) chemistry. We also show that Bayesian age models produce reproducible results from different geologic sections. On the basis of these data, including litho- and biostratigraphic correlations, we can precisely and accurately constrain the Permian-Triassic boundary in an equatorial marine setting, and correlate tephra beds over different sections and facies in the Nanpanjiang Basin independently from litho-, bio- or chemostratigraphic criteria. The results evidence that data produced in laboratories associated to the global EARTHTIME consortium can provide age information at the 0.05% level of 206

  13. Determination of blood plasma fluorescence extinction coefficients for dyes used in three-compartment binding model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samkoe, Kimberley S.; Sexton, Kristian; Tichauer, Kenneth; Davis, Scott C.; O'Hara, Julia A.; Hasan, Tayyaba; Pogue, Brian W.

    2011-02-01

    A three-compartment kinetic model for the binding of a ligand to its receptor in tumor tissue has been explained and the kinetic rates of the model are currently being investigated. In order to determine the plasma excretion rates of the dyes of interest, the fluorescence extinction coefficients must be determined. The fluorescence extinction coefficients of the IRDye700DX-carboxylate (IRDye700DX-C) and IRDye800CW-conjugated to EGFR (IRDye800CW-EGF) have been to be 7.98 ×106 μM-1 cm-1 and 4.73x106 μM-1 cm-1, respectively. We determined that the linear range of these dyes in the blood plasma of a mouse was 0 - 0.26 μM. Administration of 1 nmol of each of these dyes to a mouse weighing 25-30g (0.04 μM - 0.033 μM, respectively) will result in blood plasma fluorescence in the linear and readable range.

  14. A model of the mechanisms of language extinction and revitalization strategies to save endangered languages.

    PubMed

    Fernando, Chrisantha; Valijärvi, Riitta-Liisa; Goldstein, Richard A

    2010-02-01

    Why and how have languages died out? We have devised a mathematical model to help us understand how languages go extinct. We use the model to ask whether language extinction can be prevented in the future and why it may have occurred in the past. A growing number of mathematical models of language dynamics have been developed to study the conditions for language coexistence and death, yet their phenomenological approach compromises their ability to influence language revitalization policy. In contrast, here we model the mechanisms underlying language competition and look at how these mechanisms are influenced by specific language revitalization interventions, namely, private interventions to raise the status of the language and thus promote language learning at home, public interventions to increase the use of the minority language, and explicit teaching of the minority language in schools. Our model reveals that it is possible to preserve a minority language but that continued long-term interventions will likely be necessary. We identify the parameters that determine which interventions work best under certain linguistic and societal circumstances. In this way the efficacy of interventions of various types can be identified and predicted. Although there are qualitative arguments for these parameter values (e.g., the responsiveness of children to learning a language as a function of the proportion of conversations heard in that language, the relative importance of conversations heard in the family and elsewhere, and the amplification of spoken to heard conversations of the high-status language because of the media), extensive quantitative data are lacking in this field. We propose a way to measure these parameters, allowing our model, as well as others models in the field, to be validated.

  15. Coexistence versus extinction in the stochastic cyclic Lotka-Volterra model.

    PubMed

    Reichenbach, Tobias; Mobilia, Mauro; Frey, Erwin

    2006-11-01

    Cyclic dominance of species has been identified as a potential mechanism to maintain biodiversity, see, e.g., B. Kerr, M. A. Riley, M. W. Feldman and B. J. M. Bohannan [Nature 418, 171 (2002)] and B. Kirkup and M. A. Riley [Nature 428, 412 (2004)]. Through analytical methods supported by numerical simulations, we address this issue by studying the properties of a paradigmatic non-spatial three-species stochastic system, namely, the "rock-paper-scissors" or cyclic Lotka-Volterra model. While the deterministic approach (rate equations) predicts the coexistence of the species resulting in regular (yet neutrally stable) oscillations of the population densities, we demonstrate that fluctuations arising in the system with a finite number of agents drastically alter this picture and are responsible for extinction: After long enough time, two of the three species die out. As main findings we provide analytic estimates and numerical computation of the extinction probability at a given time. We also discuss the implications of our results for a broad class of competing population systems.

  16. Biomechanical modeling and sensitivity analysis of bipedal running ability. II. Extinct taxa.

    PubMed

    Hutchinson, John R

    2004-10-01

    Using an inverse dynamics biomechanical analysis that was previously validated for extant bipeds, I calculated the minimum amount of actively contracting hindlimb extensor muscle that would have been needed for rapid bipedal running in several extinct dinosaur taxa. I analyzed models of nine theropod dinosaurs (including birds) covering over five orders of magnitude in size. My results uphold previous findings that large theropods such as Tyrannosaurus could not run very quickly, whereas smaller theropods (including some extinct birds) were adept runners. Furthermore, my results strengthen the contention that many nonavian theropods, especially larger individuals, used fairly upright limb orientations, which would have reduced required muscular force, and hence muscle mass. Additional sensitivity analysis of muscle fascicle lengths, moment arms, and limb orientation supports these conclusions and points out directions for future research on the musculoskeletal limits on running ability. Although ankle extensor muscle support is shown to have been important for all taxa, the ability of hip extensor muscles to support the body appears to be a crucial limit for running capacity in larger taxa. I discuss what speeds were possible for different theropod dinosaurs, and how running ability evolved in an inverse relationship to body size in archosaurs.

  17. Validated Numerical Models for the Convective Extinction of Fuel Droplets (CEFD)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gogos, George; Bowen, Brent; Nickerson, Jocelyn S.

    2002-01-01

    The NASA Nebraska Space Grant (NSGC) & EPSCoR programs have continued their effort to support outstanding research endeavors by funding the Numerical Simulation of the Combustion of Fuel Droplets study at the University of Nebraska at Lincoln (UNL). This team of researchers has developed a transient numerical model to study the combustion of suspended and moving droplets. The engines that propel missiles, jets, and many other devices are dependent upon combustion. Therefore, data concerning the combustion of fuel droplets is of immediate relevance to aviation and aeronautical personnel, especially those involved in flight operations. The experiments being conducted by Dr. Gogos and Dr. Nayagam s research teams, allow investigators to gather data for comparison with theoretical predictions of burning rates, flame structures, and extinction conditions. The consequent improved fundamental understanding of droplet combustion may contribute to the clean and safe utilization of fossil fuels (Williams, Dryer, Haggard & Nayagam, 1997, f 2). The present state of knowledge on convective extinction of fuel droplets derives from experiments conducted under normal gravity conditions. However, any data obtained with suspended droplets under normal gravity are grossly affected by gravity. The need to obtain experimental data under microgravity conditions is therefore well justified and addresses one of the goals of NASA's Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) microgravity combustion experiment.

  18. Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Early Solar System Chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    The following topics were presented in this report: Iron Isotopic Fractionation During Vacuum Evaporation of Molten W?stite and Solar Compositions; Mg Isotope Ratio Zonation in CAIs - New Constraints on CAI Evolution; Sm-Nd Systematics of Chondrites; AMS Measurement of Mg-24(He-3,p)Al-26 Cross Section, Implications for the Al-26 Production in the Early Solar System; On Early Solar System Chronology: Implications of an Initially Heterogeneous Distribution of Short-lived Radionuclides; Revisiting Extraterrestrial U Isotope Ratios; Helium-Shell Nucleosynthesis and Extinct Radioactivities; High Spatial Resolution Ion Microprobe Measurements Refine Chronology of Orgueil Carbonate Formation; and Calibration of the Galactic Cosmic Ray Flux.

  19. Using physical models to study the gliding performance of extinct animals.

    PubMed

    Koehl, M A R; Evangelista, Dennis; Yang, Karen

    2011-12-01

    Aerodynamic studies using physical models of fossil organisms can provide quantitative information about how performance of defined activities, such as gliding, depends on specific morphological features. Such analyses allow us to rule out hypotheses about the function of extinct organisms that are not physically plausible and to determine if and how specific morphological features and postures affect performance. The purpose of this article is to provide a practical guide for the design of dynamically scaled physical models to study the gliding of extinct animals using examples from our research on the theropod dinosaur, †Microraptor gui, which had flight feathers on its hind limbs as well as on its forelimbs. Analysis of the aerodynamics of †M. gui can shed light on the design of gliders with large surfaces posterior to the center of mass and provide functional information to evolutionary biologists trying to unravel the origins of flight in the dinosaurian ancestors and sister groups to birds. Measurements of lift, drag, side force, and moments in pitch, roll, and yaw on models in a wind tunnel can be used to calculate indices of gliding and parachuting performance, aerodynamic static stability, and control effectiveness in maneuvering. These indices permit the aerodynamic performance of bodies of different shape, size, stiffness, texture, and posture to be compared and thus can provide insights about the design of gliders, both biological and man-made. Our measurements of maximum lift-to-drag ratios of 2.5-3.1 for physical models of †M. gui suggest that its gliding performance was similar to that of flying squirrels and that the various leg postures that might have been used by †M. gui make little difference to that aspect of aerodynamic performance. We found that body orientation relative to the movement of air past the animal determines whether it is difficult or easy to maneuver.

  20. Determinants of loss of mammal species during the Late Quaternary 'megafauna' extinctions: life history and ecology, but not body size.

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, C N

    2002-01-01

    Extinctions of megafauna species during the Late Quaternary dramatically reduced the global diversity of mammals. There is intense debate over the causes of these extinctions, especially regarding the extent to which humans were involved. Most previous analyses of this question have focused on chronologies of extinction and on the archaeological evidence for human-megafauna interaction. Here, I take an alternative approach: comparison of the biological traits of extinct species with those of survivors. I use this to demonstrate two general features of the selectivity of Late Quaternary mammal extinctions in Australia, Eurasia, the Americas and Madagascar. First, large size was not directly related to risk of extinction; rather, species with slow reproductive rates were at high risk regardless of their body size. This finding rejects the 'blitzkrieg' model of overkill, in which extinctions were completed during brief intervals of selective hunting of large-bodied prey. Second, species that survived despite having low reproductive rates typically occurred in closed habitats and many were arboreal or nocturnal. Such traits would have reduced their exposure to direct interaction with people. Therefore, although this analysis rejects blitzkrieg as a general scenario for the mammal megafauna extinctions, it is consistent with extinctions being due to interaction with human populations. PMID:12427315

  1. Impact winter and the Cretaceous/Tertiary extinctions: Results of a Chicxulub asteroid impact model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pope, Kevin O.; Baines, Kevin H.; Ocampo, Adriana C.; Ivanov, Boris A.

    1994-01-01

    The Chicxulub impact crater in Mexico is the site of the impact purported to have caused mass extinctions at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. 2-D hydrocode modeling of the impact, coupled with studies of the impact site geology, indiate that between 0.4 and 7.0 x 10(exp 17) g of sulfur were vaporized by the impact into anhydrite target rocks. A small portion of the sulfur was released as SO3 or SO4, which converted rapidly into H2SO4 aerosol and fell as acid rain. A radiative transfer model, coupled with a model of coagulation indicates that the aerosol prolonged the initial blackout period caused by impact dust only if the aerosol contained impurities. A larger portion of sulfur was released as SO2, which converted to aerosol slowly, due to the rate-limiting oxidation of SO2. Our radiative transfer calculations, combined with rates of acid production, coagulation, and diffusion indicate that solar transmission was reduced to 10-20% of normal for a period of 8-13 yr. This reduction produced a climate forcing (cooling) of -300 W/sq.m, which far exceeded the +8 W/sq.m greenhouse warming, caused by the CO2 released through the vaporization of carbonates, and therefore produced a decade of freezing and near-freezing temperatures. Several decades of moderate warming followed the decade of severe cooling due to the long residence time of CO2. The prolonged impact winter may have been a major cause of the K/T extinctions.

  2. Impact winter and the Cretaceous/Tertiary extinctions: results of a Chicxulub asteroid impact model.

    PubMed

    Pope, K O; Baines, K H; Ocampo, A C; Ivanov, B A

    1994-01-01

    The Chicxulub impact crater in Mexico is the site of the impact purported to have caused mass extinctions at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. 2-D hydrocode modeling of the impact, coupled with studies of the impact site geology, indicate that between 0.4 and 7.0 x 10(17) g of sulfur were vaporized by the impact into anhydrite target rocks. A small portion of the sulfur was released as SO3 or SO4, which converted rapidly into H2SO4 aerosol and fell as acid rain. A radiative transfer model, coupled with a model of coagulation indicates that the aerosol prolonged the initial blackout period caused by impact dust only if the aerosol contained impurities. A larger portion of sulfur was released as SO2, which converted to aerosol slowly, due to the rate-limiting oxidation of SO2. Our radiative transfer calculations, combined with rates of acid production, coagulation, and diffusion indicate that solar transmission was reduced to 10-20% of normal for a period of 8-13 yr. This reduction produced a climate forcing (cooling) of -300 Wm-2, which far exceeded the +8 Wm-2 greenhouse warming, caused by the CO2 released through the vaporization of carbonates, and therefore produced a decade of freezing and near-freezing temperatures. Several decades of moderate warming followed the decade of severe cooling due to the long residence time of CO2. The prolonged impact winter may have been a major cause of the K/T extinctions.

  3. Late Quaternary Megafaunal Extinctions in Northern Eurasia: Latest Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stuart, Anthony

    2010-05-01

    archaeological records in collaboration with colleagues at Durham University, Royal Holloway, University of London and Southampton University. It is clear from the results that environmental change had a major impact, but the geographical and chronological patterns are complex and there is striking variation in extinction dynamics between species. For example cave bear and spotted hyaena show early extinction in Europe c.28 cal ka, whereas cave lion and woolly rhino disappeared in the Late Glacial c.14 cal ka, and mammoth and giant deer persisted in limited areas well into the Holocene. Our current NERC funded project (3 years from March 2009) extends the scope of our research to include several species that survive to the present day: e.g. musk ox, reindeer, horse, red deer, and moose, and is also extended geographically to Alaska, and the Yukon. Modelling of vegetational changes during the last 40,000 years (by our colleagues at Durham: Judy Allen, Yvonne Collingham, Brian Huntley, using LPJ-Guess data from Paul Valdes) is providing much better geographical coverage than the available pollen data, and also structure and productivity of the vegetation - both of considerable importance to the mammal fauna. Comparing the chronological and geographical dynamics of extant and extinct species promises to shed light on why some species were lost whereas others survived. Moreover, by using a niche-modelling approach we hope to show whether or not species became extinct due to habitat loss, or whether other factors such as human hunting might have been involved in their final disappearance.

  4. Stochastic modeling of unsteady extinction in turbulent non-premixed combustion

    DOE PAGES

    Lackmann, T.; Hewson, J. C.; Knaus, R. C.; Kerstein, A. R.; Oevermann, M.

    2016-07-19

    Turbulent fluctuations of the scalar dissipation rate have a major impact on extinction in non-premixed combustion. Recently, an unsteady extinction criterion has been developed (Hewson, 2013) that predicts extinction dependent on the duration and the magnitude of dissipation rate fluctuations exceeding a critical quenching value; this quantity is referred to as the dissipation impulse. Furthermore, the magnitude of the dissipation impulse corresponding to unsteady extinction is related to the difficulty with which a flamelet is exintguished, based on the steady-state S-curve.

  5. A model for the Holocene extinction of the mammal megafauna in Ecuador

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ficcarelli, G.; Coltorti, M.; Moreno-Espinosa, M.; Pieruccini, P. L.; Rook, L.; Torre, D.

    2003-03-01

    This paper presents the results of multidisciplinary research in the Ecuadorian coastal regions, with particular emphasis on the Santa Elena Peninsula. The new evidence, together with previous data gathered on the Ecuadorian cordillera during the last 12 years, allows us to formulate a model that accounts for most of the mammal megafauna extinction at the Pleistocene/Holocene transition. After the illustration of geomorphological and paleontological evidences of the area of the Santa Elena Peninsula (and other sites), and of a summary of the paleoclimatic data, the main results and conclusions of this work are: (1) Late Pleistocene mammal assemblages survived in the Ecuadorian coast until the Early Holocene sea level rise; (2) Prior to the extinction of most of the megafauna elements (mastodons, ground sloths, equids, sabre-tooth felids), the mammal communities at Santa Elena Peninsula comprise elements with differing habitat requirements, attesting conditions of high biological pressure; (3) At the El Cautivo site (Santa Elena Peninsula), we have discovered Holocene sediments containing the first known occurrences in Ecuador of lithic artifacts that are associated with mammal megafauna remains; (4) During the last 10,000 years, the coastal region of Ecuador underwent significant changes in vegetation cover. At the Pleistocene/Holocene transition the climate changed from very arid conditions to humid conditions. Our data indicates that the megafauna definitively abandoned the Cordillera areas around 12,000 yr BP due to t he increasing aridity, and subsequently migrated to coastal areas where ecological conditions still were suitable, Santa Elena Peninsula and mainly Amazonian areas being typical. We conclude that the unusual high faunal concentrations and the change to dense vegetation cover (due to a rapid increase in precipitation in the lower Holocene) at 8000-6000 yr BP, caused the final collapse and extinction of most elements of the mammal megafauna

  6. Τesting models for the beginnings of the Aurignacian and the advent of figurative art and music: the radiocarbon chronology of Geißenklösterle.

    PubMed

    Higham, Thomas; Basell, Laura; Jacobi, Roger; Wood, Rachel; Ramsey, Christopher Bronk; Conard, Nicholas J

    2012-06-01

    The German site of Geißenklösterle is crucial to debates concerning the European Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition and the origins of the Aurignacian in Europe. Previous dates from the site are central to an important hypothesis, the Kulturpumpe model, which posits that the Swabian Jura was an area where crucial behavioural developments took place and then spread to other parts of Europe. The previous chronology (critical to the model), is based mainly on radiocarbon dating, but remains poorly constrained due to the dating resolution and the variability of dates. The cause of these problems is disputed, but two principal explanations have been proposed: a) larger than expected variations in the production of atmospheric radiocarbon, and b) taphonomic influences in the site mixing the bones that were dated into different parts of the site. We reinvestigate the chronology using a new series of radiocarbon determinations obtained from the Mousterian, Aurignacian and Gravettian levels. The results strongly imply that the previous dates were affected by insufficient decontamination of the bone collagen prior to dating. Using an ultrafiltration protocol the chronometric picture becomes much clearer. Comparison of the results against other recently dated sites in other parts of Europe suggests the Early Aurignacian levels are earlier than other sites in the south of France and Italy, but not as early as recently dated sites which suggest a pre-Aurignacian dispersal of modern humans to Italy by ∼45000 cal BP. They are consistent with the importance of the Danube Corridor as a key route for the movement of people and ideas. The new dates fail to refute the Kulturpumpe model and suggest that Swabian Jura is a region that contributed significantly to the evolution of symbolic behaviour as indicated by early evidence for figurative art, music and mythical imagery. PMID:22575323

  7. Τesting models for the beginnings of the Aurignacian and the advent of figurative art and music: the radiocarbon chronology of Geißenklösterle.

    PubMed

    Higham, Thomas; Basell, Laura; Jacobi, Roger; Wood, Rachel; Ramsey, Christopher Bronk; Conard, Nicholas J

    2012-06-01

    The German site of Geißenklösterle is crucial to debates concerning the European Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition and the origins of the Aurignacian in Europe. Previous dates from the site are central to an important hypothesis, the Kulturpumpe model, which posits that the Swabian Jura was an area where crucial behavioural developments took place and then spread to other parts of Europe. The previous chronology (critical to the model), is based mainly on radiocarbon dating, but remains poorly constrained due to the dating resolution and the variability of dates. The cause of these problems is disputed, but two principal explanations have been proposed: a) larger than expected variations in the production of atmospheric radiocarbon, and b) taphonomic influences in the site mixing the bones that were dated into different parts of the site. We reinvestigate the chronology using a new series of radiocarbon determinations obtained from the Mousterian, Aurignacian and Gravettian levels. The results strongly imply that the previous dates were affected by insufficient decontamination of the bone collagen prior to dating. Using an ultrafiltration protocol the chronometric picture becomes much clearer. Comparison of the results against other recently dated sites in other parts of Europe suggests the Early Aurignacian levels are earlier than other sites in the south of France and Italy, but not as early as recently dated sites which suggest a pre-Aurignacian dispersal of modern humans to Italy by ∼45000 cal BP. They are consistent with the importance of the Danube Corridor as a key route for the movement of people and ideas. The new dates fail to refute the Kulturpumpe model and suggest that Swabian Jura is a region that contributed significantly to the evolution of symbolic behaviour as indicated by early evidence for figurative art, music and mythical imagery.

  8. Persistence and extinction for a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teng, Zhidong; Wang, Lei

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. It is shown that the extinction and persistence of the disease in probability are determined by a threshold value R˜0. That is, if R˜0 < 1 and an additional condition holds then disease dies out, and if R˜0 > 1 then disease is weak permanent with probability one. To obtain the permanence in the mean of the disease, a new quantity R̂0 is introduced, and it is proved that if R̂0 > 1 the disease is permanent in the mean with probability one. Furthermore, the numerical simulations are presented to illustrate some open problems given in Remarks 1-3 and 5 of this paper.

  9. Stochastic resonance and noise delayed extinction in a model of two competing species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valenti, D.; Fiasconaro, A.; Spagnolo, B.

    2004-01-01

    We study the role of the noise in the dynamics of two competing species. We consider generalized Lotka-Volterra equations in the presence of a multiplicative noise, which models the interaction between the species and the environment. The interaction parameter between the species is a random process which obeys a stochastic differential equation with a generalized bistable potential in the presence of a periodic driving term, which accounts for the environment temperature variation. We find noise-induced periodic oscillations of the species concentrations and stochastic resonance phenomenon. We find also a nonmonotonic behavior of the mean extinction time of one of the two competing species as a function of the additive noise intensity.

  10. Examination of hypotheses for the Permo-Triassic boundary extinction by carbon cycle modeling.

    PubMed

    Berner, Robert A

    2002-04-01

    The biological extinction that occurred at the Permian-Triassic boundary represents the most extensive loss of species of any known event of the past 550 million years. There have been a wide variety of explanations offered for this extinction. In the present paper, a number of the more popular recent hypotheses are evaluated in terms of predictions that they make, or that they imply, concerning the global carbon cycle. For this purpose, a mass balance model is used that calculates atmospheric CO2 and oceanic delta13C as a function of time. Hypotheses considered include: (i) the release of massive amounts of CO2 from the ocean to the atmosphere resulting in mass poisoning; (ii) the release of large amounts of CO2 from volcanic degassing; (iii) the release of methane stored in methane hydrates; (iv) the decomposition and oxidation of dead organisms to CO2 after sudden mass mortality; and (v) the long-term reorganization of the global carbon cycle. The modeling indicates that measured short-term changes in delta13C at the boundary are best explained by methane release with mass mortality and volcanic degassing contributing in secondary roles. None of the processes result in excessively high levels of atmospheric CO2 if they occurred on time scales of more than about 1,000 years. The idea of poisoning by high levels of atmospheric CO2 depends on the absence of subthermocline calcium carbonate deposition during the latest Permian. The most far-reaching effect was found to be reorganization of the carbon cycle with major sedimentary burial of organic matter shifting from the land to the sea, resulting in less burial overall, decreased atmospheric O2, and higher atmospheric CO2 for the entire Triassic Period.

  11. Examination of hypotheses for the Permo-Triassic boundary extinction by carbon cycle modeling.

    PubMed

    Berner, Robert A

    2002-04-01

    The biological extinction that occurred at the Permian-Triassic boundary represents the most extensive loss of species of any known event of the past 550 million years. There have been a wide variety of explanations offered for this extinction. In the present paper, a number of the more popular recent hypotheses are evaluated in terms of predictions that they make, or that they imply, concerning the global carbon cycle. For this purpose, a mass balance model is used that calculates atmospheric CO2 and oceanic delta13C as a function of time. Hypotheses considered include: (i) the release of massive amounts of CO2 from the ocean to the atmosphere resulting in mass poisoning; (ii) the release of large amounts of CO2 from volcanic degassing; (iii) the release of methane stored in methane hydrates; (iv) the decomposition and oxidation of dead organisms to CO2 after sudden mass mortality; and (v) the long-term reorganization of the global carbon cycle. The modeling indicates that measured short-term changes in delta13C at the boundary are best explained by methane release with mass mortality and volcanic degassing contributing in secondary roles. None of the processes result in excessively high levels of atmospheric CO2 if they occurred on time scales of more than about 1,000 years. The idea of poisoning by high levels of atmospheric CO2 depends on the absence of subthermocline calcium carbonate deposition during the latest Permian. The most far-reaching effect was found to be reorganization of the carbon cycle with major sedimentary burial of organic matter shifting from the land to the sea, resulting in less burial overall, decreased atmospheric O2, and higher atmospheric CO2 for the entire Triassic Period. PMID:11917102

  12. Chronological aging-induced apoptosis in yeast.

    PubMed

    Fabrizio, Paola; Longo, Valter D

    2008-07-01

    Saccharomyces cerevisiae is the simplest among the major eukaryotic model organisms for aging and diseases. Longevity in the chronological life span paradigm is measured as the mean and maximum survival period of populations of non-dividing yeast. This paradigm has been used successfully to identify several life-regulatory genes and three evolutionary conserved pro-aging pathways. More recently, Schizosaccharomyces pombe has been shown to age chronologically in a manner that resembles that of S. cerevisiae and that depends on the activity of the homologues of two pro-aging proteins previously identified in the budding yeast. Both yeast show features of apoptotic death during chronological aging. Here, we review some fundamental aspects of the genetics of chronological aging and the overlap between yeast aging and apoptotic processes with particular emphasis on the identification of an aging/death program that favors the dedifferentiation and regrowth of a few better adapted mutants generated within populations of aging S. cerevisiae. We also describe the use of a genome-wide screening technique to gain further insights into the mechanisms of programmed death in populations of chronologically aging S. cerevisiae.

  13. K-Pg extinction patterns in marine and freshwater environments: The impact winter model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, Douglas S.; Lewis, William M.; Sheehan, Peter M.; Toon, Owen B.

    2013-07-01

    Chicxulub asteroid impact produced massive extinction in terrestrial environments most likely through an intense heat pulse and subsequent widespread fires. Aquatic environments were shielded from this heat and fire but nevertheless showed massive extinction in marine environments and, for reasons unexplained, far less extinction in freshwater environments. Extinction in marine environments resulted from the effects of an "impact winter" caused by dust and smoke in the atmosphere that extinguished sunlight at the Earth's surface for a period of months to years. The resulting cessation of photosynthesis caused a globally extensive extinction of phytoplankton taxa. Because aquatic ecosystems, unlike terrestrial environments, are strongly dependent on daily photosynthetic output by autotrophs, loss of phytoplankton likely caused catastrophic mortality and extinction in aquatic ecosystems. Other potential causes of mortality in aquatic ecosystems include lower ambient temperatures and anoxia due to the lack of photosynthetic oxygen. Inland waters, although probably subject to high mortality, showed lower proportionate extinction than marine environments probably because of the greater potential among the freshwater taxa for dormancy, the greater efficiency of reaeration by rapid flow to offset oxygen demand, abundant thermal refugia fed by groundwater at moderate temperatures, and preadaptation of freshwater taxa to a great degree of environmental variability. In addition, detrital feeders appear to have had low extinction rates in either marine or freshwater environments, but again freshwater taxa would have been favored by higher renewal rates of detrital organic matter as a result of their direct hydrologic contact with soil.

  14. Phreatomagmatic Pipes of the Tunguska basin (Siberia): Improvement of End-Permian Mass Extinction Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polozov, Alexander; Svensen, Henrik; Planke, Sverre; Jerram, Dougal

    2014-05-01

    Formation of the Siberian Traps Large Igneous Province is regarded as key phenomena responsible for the end-Permian mass extinction. Extinct event was accelerating due to release of enormous amount of gases throughout numerous basalt pipes, originated from contact aureoles of dolerite sills intruded into Tunguska Basin. Tunguska sedimentary basin consists of Precambrian and Paleozoic evaporites, carbonates and terrigenous rocks including Late Paleozoic coal-bearing strata. Precambrian and early Paleozoic oil source rocks contain numerous high potential oil and gas fields. Paleozoic evaporites contain rock and potassium salts deposits of commercial grade. Tunguska Basin evaporites are considered as a regional seal for the mineralizing brines. Permian-Triassic volcaniclastic rocks overlie this sequence and intrusive rocks have the numerous evidences of magma-sediment interaction result in basalt pipes formation. Compilation of available Russian literature gives us a chance to make a conclusion that hundreds of basalt pipes occur in the Tunguska Basin. The basalt pipes cross over all known dolerite intrusions and are filled with breccias of magmatic, volcaniclastic and sedimentary rocks altered to varying extents. Pipes from the Tunguska Basin south have a phreatomagmatic origin that is supported by ubiquitous occurrence of altered sedimentary clasts and volcaniclastic lapilli, corroded by brine during initial stages of magma-evaporite (brine) interaction. Corroded lapilli rimmed by diopside, chlorine-bearing hornblende, apatite and magnetite. Our recent study of magnetite-rich coarse lapilli tuffs revealed the garnet lapilli rimmed with magnetite cemented by altered clay groundmass enriched by native metals (Cu, Sn, Zn). This result corroborates our hypothesis about magnetite formation during initial stage of magma-sediment-brine interaction. We suggest that these observations could shed light on end-Permian aerosol flux originated from basalt pipes and could provide

  15. Beliefs about Human Extinction

    SciTech Connect

    Tonn, Bruce Edward

    2009-11-01

    This paper presents the results of a web-based survey about futures issues. Among many questions, respondents were asked whether they believe humans will become extinct. Forty-five percent of the almost 600 respondents believe that humans will become extinct. Many of those holding this believe felt that humans could become extinct within 500-1000 years. Others estimated extinction 5000 or more years into the future. A logistic regression model was estimated to explore the bases for this belief. It was found that people who describe themselves a secular are more likely to hold this belief than people who describe themselves as being Protestant. Older respondents and those who believe that humans have little control over their future also hold this belief. In addition, people who are more apt to think about the future and are better able to imagine potential futures tend to also believe that humans will become extinct.

  16. Extinction times in experimental populations.

    PubMed

    Drake, John M

    2006-09-01

    Predicting population extinctions is a key element of quantitative conservation biology and population ecology. Although stochastic population theories have long been used to obtain theoretical distributions of population extinction times, model-based predictions have rarely been tested. Here I report results from a quantitative analysis of extinction time in 281 experimental populations of water fleas (Daphnia magna) in variable environments. To my knowledge, this is the first quantitative estimate of the shape of the distribution of population extinction times based on extinction data for any species. The finding that the distribution of population extinction times was extraordinarily peaked is consistent with theoretical predictions for density-independent populations, but inconsistent with predictions for density-dependent populations. The tail of the extinction time distribution was not exponential. These results imply that our current theories of extinction are inadequate. Future work should focus on how demographic stochasticity scales with population size and effects of nonrandom variable environments on population growth and decline.

  17. Is extinction age dependent?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Doran, N.A.; Arnold, A.J.; Parker, W.C.; Huffer, F.W.

    2006-01-01

    Age-dependent extinction is an observation with important biological implications. Van Valen's Red Queen hypothesis triggered three decades of research testing its primary implication: that age is independent of extinction. In contrast to this, later studies with species-level data have indicated the possible presence of age dependence. Since the formulation of the Red Queen hypothesis, more powerful tests of survivorship models have been developed. This is the first report of the application of the Cox Proportional Hazards model to paleontological data. Planktonic foraminiferal morphospecies allow the taxonomic and precise stratigraphic resolution necessary for the Cox model. As a whole, planktonic foraminiferal morphospecies clearly show age-dependent extinction. In particular, the effect is attributable to the presence of shorter-ranged species (range < 4 myr) following extinction events. These shorter-ranged species also possess tests with unique morphological architecture. The morphological differences are probably epiphenomena of underlying developmental and heterochronic processes of shorter-ranged species that survived various extinction events. Extinction survivors carry developmental and morphological characteristics into postextinction recovery times, and this sets them apart from species populations established independently of extinction events. Copyright ?? 2006, SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology).

  18. Fear conditioning and extinction across development: evidence from human studies and animal models.

    PubMed

    Shechner, Tomer; Hong, Melanie; Britton, Jennifer C; Pine, Daniel S; Fox, Nathan A

    2014-07-01

    The ability to differentiate danger and safety through associative processes emerges early in life. Understanding the mechanisms underlying associative learning of threat and safety can clarify the processes that shape development of normative fears and pathological anxiety. Considerable research has used fear conditioning and extinction paradigms to delineate underlying mechanisms in animals and human adults; however, little is known about these mechanisms in children and adolescents. The current paper summarizes the empirical data on the development of fear conditioning and extinction. It reviews methodological considerations and future directions for research on fear conditioning and extinction in pediatric populations.

  19. Context-Dependent Encoding of Fear and Extinction Memories in a Large-Scale Network Model of the Basal Amygdala

    PubMed Central

    Vlachos, Ioannis; Herry, Cyril; Lüthi, Andreas; Aertsen, Ad; Kumar, Arvind

    2011-01-01

    The basal nucleus of the amygdala (BA) is involved in the formation of context-dependent conditioned fear and extinction memories. To understand the underlying neural mechanisms we developed a large-scale neuron network model of the BA, composed of excitatory and inhibitory leaky-integrate-and-fire neurons. Excitatory BA neurons received conditioned stimulus (CS)-related input from the adjacent lateral nucleus (LA) and contextual input from the hippocampus or medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). We implemented a plasticity mechanism according to which CS and contextual synapses were potentiated if CS and contextual inputs temporally coincided on the afferents of the excitatory neurons. Our simulations revealed a differential recruitment of two distinct subpopulations of BA neurons during conditioning and extinction, mimicking the activation of experimentally observed cell populations. We propose that these two subgroups encode contextual specificity of fear and extinction memories, respectively. Mutual competition between them, mediated by feedback inhibition and driven by contextual inputs, regulates the activity in the central amygdala (CEA) thereby controlling amygdala output and fear behavior. The model makes multiple testable predictions that may advance our understanding of fear and extinction memories. PMID:21437238

  20. A Perspective from Extinct Radionuclides on a Young Stellar Object: The Sun and Its Accretion Disk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dauphas, Nicolas; Chaussidon, Marc

    2011-05-01

    Meteorites, which are remnants of solar system formation, provide a direct glimpse into the dynamics and evolution of a young stellar object (YSO), namely our Sun. Much of our knowledge about the astrophysical context of the birth of the Sun, the chronology of planetary growth from micrometer-sized dust to terrestrial planets, and the activity of the young Sun comes from the study of extinct radionuclides such as 26Al (t1/2=0.717 Myr). Here we review how the signatures of extinct radionuclides (short-lived isotopes that were present when the solar system formed and that have now decayed below detection level) in planetary materials influence the current paradigm of solar system formation. Particular attention is given to tying meteorite measurements to remote astronomical observations of YSOs and modeling efforts. Some extinct radionuclides were inherited from the long-term chemical evolution of the Galaxy, others were injected into the solar system by a nearby supernova, and some were produced by particle irradiation from the T-Tauri Sun. The chronology inferred from extinct radionuclides reveals that dust agglomeration to form centimeter-sized particles in the inner part of the disk was very rapid (<50 kyr), planetesimal formation started early and spanned several million years, planetary embryos (possibly like Mars) were formed in a few million years, and terrestrial planets (like Earth) completed their growths several tens of million years after the birth of the Sun.

  1. DEVELOPMENT OF AQUATIC MODELS FOR TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GENETIC DIVERSITY AND POPULATION EXTINCTION RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    The relationship between population adaptive potential and extinction risk in a changing environment is not well understood. Although the expectation is that genetic diversity is directly related to the capacity of populations to adapt, the statistical and predictive aspects of ...

  2. Why would we use the Sediment Isotope Tomography (SIT) model to establish a 210Pb-based chronology in recent-sediment cores?

    PubMed

    Abril Hernández, José-María

    2015-05-01

    After half a century, the use of unsupported (210)Pb ((210)Pbexc) is still far off from being a well established dating tool for recent sediments with widespread applicability. Recent results from the statistical analysis of time series of fluxes, mass sediment accumulation rates (SAR), and initial activities, derived from varved sediments, place serious constraints to the assumption of constant fluxes, which is widely used in dating models. The Sediment Isotope Tomography (SIT) model, under the assumption of non post-depositional redistribution, is used for dating recent sediments in scenarios in that fluxes and SAR are uncorrelated and both vary with time. By using a simple graphical analysis, this paper shows that under the above assumptions, any given (210)Pbexc profile, even with the restriction of a discrete set of reference points, is compatible with an infinite number of chronological lines, and thus generating an infinite number of mathematically exact solutions for histories of initial activity concentrations, SAR and fluxes onto the SWI, with these two last ranging from zero up to infinity. Particularly, SIT results, without additional assumptions, cannot contain any statistically significant difference with respect to the exact solutions consisting in intervals of constant SAR or constant fluxes (both being consistent with the reference points). Therefore, there is not any benefit in its use as a dating tool without the explicit introduction of additional restrictive assumptions about fluxes, SAR and/or their interrelationship.

  3. Modeling routes of chronic wasting disease transmission: Environmental prion persistence promotes deer population decline and extinction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Almberg, Emily S.; Cross, Paul C.; Johnson, Christopher J.; Heisey, Dennis M.; Richards, Bryan J.

    2011-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of deer, elk, and moose transmitted through direct, animal-to-animal contact, and indirectly, via environmental contamination. Considerable attention has been paid to modeling direct transmission, but despite the fact that CWD prions can remain infectious in the environment for years, relatively little information exists about the potential effects of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics. In the present study, we use simulation models to demonstrate how indirect transmission and the duration of environmental prion persistence may affect epidemics of CWD and populations of North American deer. Existing data from Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin's CWD epidemics were used to define plausible short-term outcomes and associated parameter spaces. Resulting long-term outcomes range from relatively low disease prevalence and limited host-population decline to host-population collapse and extinction. Our models suggest that disease prevalence and the severity of population decline is driven by the duration that prions remain infectious in the environment. Despite relatively low epidemic growth rates, the basic reproductive number, R0, may be much larger than expected under the direct-transmission paradigm because the infectious period can vastly exceed the host's life span. High prion persistence is expected to lead to an increasing environmental pool of prions during the early phases (i.e. approximately during the first 50 years) of the epidemic. As a consequence, over this period of time, disease dynamics will become more heavily influenced by indirect transmission, which may explain some of the observed regional differences in age and sex-specific disease patterns. This suggests management interventions, such as culling or vaccination, will become increasingly less effective as CWD epidemics progress.

  4. Extinction probabilities and stationary distributions of mobile genetic elements in prokaryotes: The birth-death-diversification model.

    PubMed

    Drakos, Nicole E; Wahl, Lindi M

    2015-12-01

    Theoretical approaches are essential to our understanding of the complex dynamics of mobile genetic elements (MGEs) within genomes. Recently, the birth-death-diversification model was developed to describe the dynamics of mobile promoters (MPs), a particular class of MGEs in prokaryotes. A unique feature of this model is that genetic diversification of elements was included. To explore the implications of diversification on the longterm fate of MGE lineages, in this contribution we analyze the extinction probabilities, extinction times and equilibrium solutions of the birth-death-diversification model. We find that diversification increases both the survival and growth rate of MGE families, but the strength of this effect depends on the rate of horizontal gene transfer (HGT). We also find that the distribution of MGE families per genome is not necessarily monotonically decreasing, as observed for MPs, but may have a peak in the distribution that is related to the HGT rate. For MPs specifically, we find that new families have a high extinction probability, and predict that the number of MPs is increasing, albeit at a very slow rate. Additionally, we develop an extension of the birth-death-diversification model which allows MGEs in different regions of the genome, for example coding and non-coding, to be described by different rates. This extension may offer a potential explanation as to why the majority of MPs are located in non-promoter regions of the genome.

  5. A General Model of Distant Hybridization Reveals the Conditions for Extinction in Atlantic Salmon and Brown Trout

    PubMed Central

    Quilodrán, Claudio S.; Currat, Mathias; Montoya-Burgos, Juan I.

    2014-01-01

    Interspecific hybridization is common in nature but can be increased in frequency or even originated by human actions, such as species introduction or habitat modification, which may threaten species persistence. When hybridization occurs between distantly related species, referred to as “distant hybridization,” the resulting hybrids are generally infertile or fertile but do not undergo chromosomal recombination during gametogenesis. Here, we present a model describing this frequent but poorly studied interspecific hybridization to assess its consequences on parental species and to anticipate the conditions under which they can reach extinction. Our general model fully incorporates three important processes: density-dependent competition, dominance/recessivity inheritance of traits and assortative mating. We demonstrate its use and flexibility by assessing population extinction risk between Atlantic salmon and brown trout in Norway, whose interbreeding has recently increased due to farmed fish releases into the wild. We identified the set of conditions under which hybridization may threaten salmonid species. Thanks to the flexibility of our model, we evaluated the effect of an additional risk factor, a parasitic disease, and showed that the cumulative effects dramatically increase the extinction risk. The consequences of distant hybridization are not genetically, but demographically mediated. Our general model is useful to better comprehend the evolution of such hybrid systems and we demonstrated its importance in the field of conservation biology to set up management recommendations when this increasingly frequent type of hybridization is in action. PMID:25003336

  6. A general model of distant hybridization reveals the conditions for extinction in Atlantic salmon and brown trout.

    PubMed

    Quilodrán, Claudio S; Currat, Mathias; Montoya-Burgos, Juan I

    2014-01-01

    Interspecific hybridization is common in nature but can be increased in frequency or even originated by human actions, such as species introduction or habitat modification, which may threaten species persistence. When hybridization occurs between distantly related species, referred to as "distant hybridization," the resulting hybrids are generally infertile or fertile but do not undergo chromosomal recombination during gametogenesis. Here, we present a model describing this frequent but poorly studied interspecific hybridization to assess its consequences on parental species and to anticipate the conditions under which they can reach extinction. Our general model fully incorporates three important processes: density-dependent competition, dominance/recessivity inheritance of traits and assortative mating. We demonstrate its use and flexibility by assessing population extinction risk between Atlantic salmon and brown trout in Norway, whose interbreeding has recently increased due to farmed fish releases into the wild. We identified the set of conditions under which hybridization may threaten salmonid species. Thanks to the flexibility of our model, we evaluated the effect of an additional risk factor, a parasitic disease, and showed that the cumulative effects dramatically increase the extinction risk. The consequences of distant hybridization are not genetically, but demographically mediated. Our general model is useful to better comprehend the evolution of such hybrid systems and we demonstrated its importance in the field of conservation biology to set up management recommendations when this increasingly frequent type of hybridization is in action.

  7. Northeastern North American Pleistocene megafauna chronologically overlapped minimally with Paleoindians

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boulanger, Matthew T.; Lyman, R. Lee

    2014-02-01

    It has long been argued that specialized big-game-hunting Paleoindians were responsible for the extinction of three dozen large-bodied mammalian genera in North America. In northeastern North America, the overkill hypothesis cannot be tested on the basis of associations of Paleoindian artifacts and remains of extinct mammals because no unequivocal associations are known. The overkill hypothesis requires Paleoindians to be contemporaneous with extinct mammalian taxa and this provides a means to evaluate the hypothesis, but contemporaneity does not confirm overkill. Blitzkrieg may produce evidence of contemporaneity but it may not, rendering it difficult to test. Overkill and Blitzkrieg both require large megafaunal populations. Chronological data, Sporormiella abundance, genetics, and paleoclimatic data suggest megafauna populations declined prior to human colonization and people were only briefly contemporaneous with megafauna. Local Paleoindians may have only delivered the coup de grace to small scattered and isolated populations of megafauna.

  8. MODELING THE ANOMALY OF SURFACE NUMBER DENSITIES OF GALAXIES ON THE GALACTIC EXTINCTION MAP DUE TO THEIR FIR EMISSION CONTAMINATION

    SciTech Connect

    Kashiwagi, Toshiya; Suto, Yasushi; Taruya, Atsushi; Yahata, Kazuhiro; Kayo, Issha; Nishimichi, Takahiro

    2015-02-01

    The most widely used Galactic extinction map is constructed assuming that the observed far-infrared (FIR) fluxes come entirely from Galactic dust. According to the earlier suggestion by Yahata et al., we consider how FIR emission of galaxies affects the SFD map. We first compute the surface number density of Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) DR7 galaxies as a function of the r-band extinction, A {sub r,} {sub SFD}. We confirm that the surface densities of those galaxies positively correlate with A {sub r,} {sub SFD} for A {sub r,} {sub SFD} < 0.1, as first discovered by Yahata et al. for SDSS DR4 galaxies. Next we construct an analytical model to compute the surface density of galaxies, taking into account the contamination of their FIR emission. We adopt a log-normal probability distribution for the ratio of 100 μm and r-band luminosities of each galaxy, y ≡ (νL){sub 100} {sub μm}/(νL) {sub r}. Then we search for the mean and rms values of y that fit the observed anomaly, using the analytical model. The required values to reproduce the anomaly are roughly consistent with those measured from the stacking analysis of SDSS galaxies. Due to the limitation of our statistical modeling, we are not yet able to remove the FIR contamination of galaxies from the extinction map. Nevertheless, the agreement with the model prediction suggests that the FIR emission of galaxies is mainly responsible for the observed anomaly. Whereas the corresponding systematic error in the Galactic extinction map is 0.1-1 mmag, it is directly correlated with galaxy clustering and thus needs to be carefully examined in precision cosmology.

  9. Chronology protection conjecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawking, S. W.

    1992-07-01

    It has been suggested that an advanced civilization might have the technology to warp spacetime so that closed timelike curves would appear, allowing travel into the past. This paper examines this possibility in the case that the causality violations appear in a finite region of spacetime without curvature singularities. There will be a Cauchy horizon that is compactly generated and that in general contains one or more closed null geodesics which will be incomplete. One can define geometrical quantities that measure the Lorentz boost and area increase on going round these closed null geodesics. If the causality violation developed from a noncompact initial surface, the averaged weak energy condition must be violated on the Cauchy horizon. This shows that one cannot create closed timelike curves with finite lengths of cosmic string. Even if violations of the weak energy condition are allowed by quantum theory, the expectation value of the energy-momentum tensor would get very large if timelike curves become almost closed. It seems the back reaction would prevent closed timelike curves from appearing. These results strongly support the chronology protection conjecture: The laws of physics do not allow the appearance of closed timelike curves.

  10. Chronology protection conjecture

    SciTech Connect

    Hawking, S.W. )

    1992-07-15

    It has been suggested that an advanced civilization might have the technology to warp spacetime so that closed timelike curves would appear, allowing travel into the past. This paper examines this possibility in the case that the causality violations appear in a finite region of spacetime without curvature singularities. There will be a Cauchy horizon that is compactly generated and that in general contains one or more closed null geodesics which will be incomplete. One can define geometrical quantities that measure the Lorentz boost and area increase on going round these closed null geodesics. If the causality violation developed from a noncompact initial surface, the averaged weak energy condition must be violated on the Cauchy horizon. This shows that one cannot create closed timelike curves with finite lengths of cosmic string. Even if violations of the weak energy condition are allowed by quantum theory, the expectation value of the energy-momentum tensor would get very large if timelike curves become almost closed. It seems the back reaction would prevent closed timelike curves from appearing. These results strongly support the chronology protection conjecture: {ital The} {ital laws} {ital of} {ital physics} {ital do} {ital not} {ital allow} {ital the} {ital appearance} {ital of} {ital closed} {ital timelike} {ital curves}.

  11. The effects of models of aerosol hygroscopicity on the apportionment of extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malm, William C.; Kreidenweis, Sonia M.

    The role that aerosols play in climate forcing and visibility issues has been the subject of research for several decades. Recent research efforts have focused on assessing the contribution of individual species to scattering and absorption under ambient conditions and on how scattering and absorption change as one or more species are removed from the atmosphere. A key concern is the distribution of water among aerosols as a function of mixing assumptions. As an illustrative and relevant example, we examine the roles of sulfates and organics in visibility and climate forcing, and in particular, the implications of assumptions regarding hygroscopic growth behavior upon the assignment of mass-scattering efficiencies to these species. We demonstrate that the total scattering computed for an aerosol sample is relatively insensitive to the choice of internal or external mixture, and can be insensitive to the exact formulation of the hygroscopic growth of the sample. Since the atmospheric aerosol is generally a complex mixture of chemical species, with the precise distribution of species on a particle-by-particle basis not known, the use of semi-empirical models of multicomponent aerosol hygroscopicity is appropriate for the calculation of atmospheric aerosol scattering and/or extinction, particularly since these details appear to be unimportant in most cases. In contrast, the apportionment of percentages of the total scattering to individual chemical species is quite sensitive to the choice of assumption regarding the aerosol microphysical structure. The use of semi-empirical hygroscopic growth models for computing the change in species scattering efficiency can lead to incorrect predictions in the limit of the complete removal of all but one chemical component. We propose a model that invokes the Zdanovskii, Stokes, and Robinson (ZSR) assumptions for the water content of multicomponent mixtures, and demonstrate that this method both approximates the predictions of

  12. Slower extinction of responses maintained by intra-cranial self-stimulation (ICSS) in an animal model of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

    PubMed

    Johansen, Espen Borgå; Sagvolden, Terje

    2005-07-01

    Children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) show performance deficits and excessive motor activity during extinction and in situations where no reinforcer can be identified, suggesting an extinction deficit in ADHD possibly linked to dopamine dysfunction. The present study examined extinction of responding previously maintained by intra-cranial self-stimulation (ICSS) in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR), an animal model of ADHD using three different extinction procedures. Delivery of electrical pulses were terminated altogether or presented independently of responding using two different current intensities. The results showed that more responses were retained in the SHR, especially during the initial transition from ICSS-maintained responding to response-independent delivery of electrical pulses with current reduced relative to that given during reinforcement. Slower extinction of previously reinforced behavior is suggested as an alternative explanation for the frequently observed increased behavioral output that has previously been interpreted as "disinhibition" of behavior in ADHD.

  13. Dysfunction in amygdala-prefrontal plasticity and extinction-resistant avoidance: A model for anxiety disorder vulnerability.

    PubMed

    Fragale, Jennifer E C; Khariv, Veronika; Gregor, Danielle M; Smith, Ian M; Jiao, Xilu; Elkabes, Stella; Servatius, Richard J; Pang, Kevin C H; Beck, Kevin D

    2016-01-01

    Individuals exhibiting an anxiety disorder are believed to possess an innate vulnerability that makes them susceptible to the disorder. Anxiety disorders are also associated with abnormalities in the interconnected brain regions of the amygdala and prefrontal cortex (PFC). However, the link between anxiety vulnerability and amygdala-PFC dysfunction is currently unclear. Accordingly, the present study sought to determine if innate dysfunction within the amygdala to PFC projection underlies the susceptibility to develop anxiety-like behavior, using an anxiety vulnerable rodent model. The inbred Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rat was used to model vulnerability, as this strain naturally expresses extinction-resistant avoidance; a behavior that models the symptom of avoidance present in anxiety disorders. Synaptic plasticity was assessed within the projection from the basolateral nucleus of the amygdala (BLA) to the prelimbic cortical subdivision of the PFC in WKY and Sprague Dawley (SD) rats. While WKY rats exhibited normal paired-pulse plasticity, they did not maintain long-term potentiation (LTP) as SD rats. Thus, impaired plasticity within the BLA-PL cortex projection may contribute to extinction resistant avoidance of WKY, as lesions of the PL cortex in SD rats impaired extinction of avoidance similar to WKY rats. Treatment with d-cycloserine to reverse the impaired LTP in WKY rats was unsuccessful. The lack of LTP in WKY rats was associated with a significant reduction of NMDA receptors containing NR2A subunits in the PL cortex. Thus, dysfunction in amygdala-PFC plasticity is innate in anxiety vulnerable rats and may promote extinction-resistant avoidance by disrupting communication between the amygdala and prefrontal cortex. PMID:26546833

  14. Dysfunction in amygdala-prefrontal plasticity and extinction-resistant avoidance: A model for anxiety disorder vulnerability.

    PubMed

    Fragale, Jennifer E C; Khariv, Veronika; Gregor, Danielle M; Smith, Ian M; Jiao, Xilu; Elkabes, Stella; Servatius, Richard J; Pang, Kevin C H; Beck, Kevin D

    2016-01-01

    Individuals exhibiting an anxiety disorder are believed to possess an innate vulnerability that makes them susceptible to the disorder. Anxiety disorders are also associated with abnormalities in the interconnected brain regions of the amygdala and prefrontal cortex (PFC). However, the link between anxiety vulnerability and amygdala-PFC dysfunction is currently unclear. Accordingly, the present study sought to determine if innate dysfunction within the amygdala to PFC projection underlies the susceptibility to develop anxiety-like behavior, using an anxiety vulnerable rodent model. The inbred Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rat was used to model vulnerability, as this strain naturally expresses extinction-resistant avoidance; a behavior that models the symptom of avoidance present in anxiety disorders. Synaptic plasticity was assessed within the projection from the basolateral nucleus of the amygdala (BLA) to the prelimbic cortical subdivision of the PFC in WKY and Sprague Dawley (SD) rats. While WKY rats exhibited normal paired-pulse plasticity, they did not maintain long-term potentiation (LTP) as SD rats. Thus, impaired plasticity within the BLA-PL cortex projection may contribute to extinction resistant avoidance of WKY, as lesions of the PL cortex in SD rats impaired extinction of avoidance similar to WKY rats. Treatment with d-cycloserine to reverse the impaired LTP in WKY rats was unsuccessful. The lack of LTP in WKY rats was associated with a significant reduction of NMDA receptors containing NR2A subunits in the PL cortex. Thus, dysfunction in amygdala-PFC plasticity is innate in anxiety vulnerable rats and may promote extinction-resistant avoidance by disrupting communication between the amygdala and prefrontal cortex.

  15. A Chronology of Mars Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Launius, Roger D.

    1997-01-01

    This document is a chronology of the spacecrafts that were launched in the attempt to travel to Mars. Information is given on whether the mission was successful and the results are briefly outlined for the successful missions.

  16. Differential reinforcement of alternative behavior increases resistance to extinction: clinical demonstration, animal modeling, and clinical test of one solution.

    PubMed

    Mace, F Charles; McComas, Jennifer J; Mauro, Benjamin C; Progar, Patrick R; Taylor, Bridget; Ervin, Ruth; Zangrillo, Amanda N

    2010-05-01

    Basic research with pigeons on behavioral momentum suggests that differential reinforcement of alternative behavior (DRA) can increase the resistance of target behavior to change. This finding suggests that clinical applications of DRA may inadvertently increase the persistence of target behavior even as it decreases its frequency. We conducted three coordinated experiments to test whether DRA has persistence-strengthening effects on clinically significant target behavior and then tested the effectiveness of a possible solution to this problem in both a nonhuman and clinical study. Experiment 1 compared resistance to extinction following baseline rates of reinforcement versus higher DRA rates of reinforcement in a clinical study. Resistance to extinction was substantially greater following DRA. Experiment 2 tested a rat model of a possible solution to this problem. Training an alternative response in a context without reinforcement of the target response circumvented the persistence-strengthening effects of DRA. Experiment 3 translated the rat model into a novel clinical application of DRA. Training an alternative response with DRA in a separate context resulted in lower resistance to extinction than employing DRA in the context correlated with reinforcement of target behavior. The value of coordinated bidirectional translational research is discussed.

  17. A chronology for late prehistoric Madagascar.

    PubMed

    Burney, David A; Burney, Lida Pigott; Godfrey, Laurie R; Jungers, William L; Goodman, Steven M; Wright, Henry T; Jull, A J Timothy

    2004-01-01

    A database has been assembled with 278 age determinations for Madagascar. Materials 14C dated include pretreated sediments and plant macrofossils from cores and excavations throughout the island, and bones, teeth, or eggshells of most of the extinct megafaunal taxa, including the giant lemurs, hippopotami, and ratites. Additional measurements come from uranium-series dates on speleothems and thermoluminescence dating of pottery. Changes documented include late Pleistocene climatic events and, in the late Holocene, the apparently human-caused transformation of the environment. Multiple lines of evidence point to the earliest human presence at ca. 2300 14C yr BP (350 cal yr BC). A decline in megafauna, inferred from a drastic decrease in spores of the coprophilous fungus Sporormiella spp. in sediments at 1720+/-40 14C yr BP (230-410 cal yr AD), is followed by large increases in charcoal particles in sediment cores, beginning in the SW part of the island, and spreading to other coasts and the interior over the next millennium. The record of human occupation is initially sparse, but shows large human populations throughout the island by the beginning of the Second Millennium AD. Dating of the "subfossil" megafauna, including pygmy hippos, elephant birds, giant tortoises, and large lemurs, demonstrates that most if not all the extinct taxa were still present on the island when humans arrived. Many taxa overlapped chronologically with humans for a millennium or more. The extinct lemurs Hadropithecus stenognathus, Pachylemur insignis, Mesopropithecus pithecoides, and Daubentonia robusta, and the elephant birds Aepyornis spp. and Mullerornis spp., were still present near the end of the First Millennium AD. Palaeopropithecus ingens, Megaladapis edwardsi, and Archaeolemur sp. (cf. edwardsi) may have survived until the middle of the Second Millennium A.D. One specimen of Hippopotamus of unknown provenance dates to the period of European colonization. PMID:15288523

  18. A Unifying Model of the Role of the Infralimbic Cortex in Extinction and Habits

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barker, Jacqueline M.; Taylor, Jane R.; Chandler, L. Judson

    2014-01-01

    The infralimbic prefrontal cortex (IL) has been shown to be critical for the regulation of flexible behavior, but its precise function remains unclear. This region has been shown to be critical for the acquisition, consolidation, and expression of extinction learning, leading many to hypothesize that IL suppresses behavior as part of a…

  19. Extinctions of life

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1988-01-01

    This meeting presentation examines mass extinctions through earth's history. Extinctions are charted for marine families and marine genera. Timing of marine genera extinctions is discussed. Periodicity in extinctions during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic eras is plotted and compared with Paleozoic extinction peaks. The role of extinction in evolution and mankind's role in present extinctions are examined.

  20. Computational fluid dynamics model of avian tracheal temperature control as a model for extant and extinct animals.

    PubMed

    Sverdlova, N S; Arkali, F; Witzel, U; Perry, S F

    2013-10-01

    Respiratory evaporative cooling is an important mechanism of temperature control in bird. A computational simulation of the breathing cycle, heat and water loss in anatomical avian trachea/air sac model has not previously been conducted. We report a first attempt to simulate a breathing cycle in a three-dimensional model of avian trachea and air sacs (domestic fowl) using transient computational fluid dynamics. The airflow in the trachea of the model is evoked by changing the volume of the air sacs based on the measured tidal volume and inspiratory/expiratory times for the domestic fowl. We compare flow parameters and heat transfer results with in vivo data and with our previously reported results for a two-dimensional model. The total respiratory heat loss corresponds to about 13-19% of the starvation metabolic rate of domestic fowl. The present study can lend insight into a possible thermoregulatory function in species with long necks and/or a very long trachea, as found in swans and birds of paradise. Assuming the structure of the sauropod dinosaur respiratory system was close to avian, the simulation of the respiratory temperature control (using convective and evaporative cooling) in the extensively experimentally studied domestic fowl may also help in making simulations of respiratory heat control in these extinct animals.

  1. Extinction with multiple excitors

    PubMed Central

    McConnell, Bridget L.; Miguez, Gonzalo; Miller, Ralph R.

    2012-01-01

    Four conditioned suppression experiments with rats, using an ABC renewal design, investigated the effects of compounding the target conditioned excitor with additional, nontarget conditioned excitors during extinction. Experiment 1 showed stronger extinction, as evidenced by less renewal, when the target excitor was extinguished in compound with a second excitor, relative to when it was extinguished with associatively neutral stimuli. Critically, this deepened extinction effect was attenuated (i.e., more renewal occurred) when a third excitor was added during extinction training. This novel demonstration contradicts the predictions of associative learning models based on total error reduction, but it is explicable in terms of a counteraction effect within the framework of the extended comparator hypothesis. The attenuated deepened extinction effect was replicated in Experiments 2a and 3, which also showed that pretraining consisting of weakening the association between the two additional excitors (Experiments 2a and 2b) or weakening the association between one of the additional excitors and the unconditioned stimulus (Experiment 3) attenuated the counteraction effect, thereby resulting in a decrease in responding to the target excitor. These results suggest that more than simple total error reduction determines responding after extinction. PMID:23055103

  2. Extinction of oscillating populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Naftali R.; Meerson, Baruch

    2016-03-01

    Established populations often exhibit oscillations in their sizes that, in the deterministic theory, correspond to a limit cycle in the space of population sizes. If a population is isolated, the intrinsic stochasticity of elemental processes can ultimately bring it to extinction. Here we study extinction of oscillating populations in a stochastic version of the Rosenzweig-MacArthur predator-prey model. To this end we develop a WKB (Wentzel, Kramers and Brillouin) approximation to the master equation, employing the characteristic population size as the large parameter. Similar WKB theories have been developed previously in the context of population extinction from an attracting multipopulation fixed point. We evaluate the extinction rates and find the most probable paths to extinction from the limit cycle by applying Floquet theory to the dynamics of an effective four-dimensional WKB Hamiltonian. We show that the entropic barriers to extinction change in a nonanalytic way as the system passes through the Hopf bifurcation. We also study the subleading pre-exponential factors of the WKB approximation.

  3. Extinction of oscillating populations.

    PubMed

    Smith, Naftali R; Meerson, Baruch

    2016-03-01

    Established populations often exhibit oscillations in their sizes that, in the deterministic theory, correspond to a limit cycle in the space of population sizes. If a population is isolated, the intrinsic stochasticity of elemental processes can ultimately bring it to extinction. Here we study extinction of oscillating populations in a stochastic version of the Rosenzweig-MacArthur predator-prey model. To this end we develop a WKB (Wentzel, Kramers and Brillouin) approximation to the master equation, employing the characteristic population size as the large parameter. Similar WKB theories have been developed previously in the context of population extinction from an attracting multipopulation fixed point. We evaluate the extinction rates and find the most probable paths to extinction from the limit cycle by applying Floquet theory to the dynamics of an effective four-dimensional WKB Hamiltonian. We show that the entropic barriers to extinction change in a nonanalytic way as the system passes through the Hopf bifurcation. We also study the subleading pre-exponential factors of the WKB approximation. PMID:27078294

  4. The p-Process in the Carbon Deflagration Model for Type Ia Supernovae and Chronology of the Solar System Formation

    SciTech Connect

    Kusakabe, Motohiko; Iwamoto, Nobuyuki; Nomoto, Ken'ichi

    2006-07-12

    We study nucleosynthesis of p-nuclei in the carbon deflagration model for Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) by assuming that seed nuclei are produced by the s-process in accreting layers on a carbon-oxygen white dwarf during mass accretion from a binary companion. We find that about 50 % of the p-nuclides are synthesized in proportion to the solar abundance and that p-isotopes of Mo and Ru which are significantly underproduced in Type II supernovae (SNe II) are produced up to a level close to other p-nuclei. Comparing the yields of iron and p-nuclei in SNe Ia we find that SNe Ia can contribute to the galactic evolution of the p-nuclei. Next, we consider nucleochronology of the solar system formation by using four radioactive nuclides and apply the result of the p-process nucleosynthesis to simple galactic chemical evolution models. We find that when assumed three phases of interstellar medium are mixed by the interdiffusion with the timescale of about 40 Myr 53Mn/55Mn value in the early solar system is consistent with a meteoritic value. In addition, we put constraints to a scenario that SNe Ia induce the core collapse of the molecular cloud, which leads to the formation of the solar system.

  5. Neanderthal Extinction by Competitive Exclusion

    PubMed Central

    Banks, William E.; d'Errico, Francesco; Peterson, A. Townsend; Kageyama, Masa; Sima, Adriana; Sánchez-Goñi, Maria-Fernanda

    2008-01-01

    Background Despite a long history of investigation, considerable debate revolves around whether Neanderthals became extinct because of climate change or competition with anatomically modern humans (AMH). Methodology/Principal Findings We apply a new methodology integrating archaeological and chronological data with high-resolution paleoclimatic simulations to define eco-cultural niches associated with Neanderthal and AMH adaptive systems during alternating cold and mild phases of Marine Isotope Stage 3. Our results indicate that Neanderthals and AMH exploited similar niches, and may have continued to do so in the absence of contact. Conclusions/Significance The southerly contraction of Neanderthal range in southwestern Europe during Greenland Interstadial 8 was not due to climate change or a change in adaptation, but rather concurrent AMH geographic expansion appears to have produced competition that led to Neanderthal extinction. PMID:19107186

  6. A comparative evaluation of the CF:CS and CRS models in 210Pb chronological studies applied to hydrographic basins in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Bonotto, D M; García-Tenorio, R

    2014-09-01

    The Constant Flux: Constant Sedimentation (CF:CS) and Constant Rate of Supply (CRS) of unsupported⧸excess (210)Pb models have been applied to a (210)Pb data set providing of eighteen sediments profiles sampled at four riverine systems occurring in Brazil, South America: Corumbataí River basin (S1=Site 1, São Paulo State), Atibaia River basin (S2=Site 2, São Paulo State), Ribeirão dos Bagres basin (S3=Site 3, São Paulo State) and Amazon River mouth (S4=Site 4, Amapá State). These sites were chosen for a comparative evaluation of the performance of the CF:CS and CRS models due to their pronounced differences on the geographical location, geological context, soil composition, biodiversity, climate, rainfall, and water flow regime, among other variable aspects. However, all sediments cores exhibited a common denominator consisting on a database built from the use of the same techniques for acquiring the sediments major chemical composition (SiO2, Al2O3, Na2O, K2O, CaO, MgO, Fe2O3, MnO, P2O5, TiO2 and LOI-Loss on Ignition) and unsupported/excess (210)Pb activity data. In terms of sedimentation rates, the performance of the CRS model was better than that of the CF:CS model as it yielded values more compatible with those expected from field evidences. Under the chronological point of view, the CRS model always provided ages within the permitted range of the (210)Pb-method in the studied sites, whereas the CF:CS model predicted some values above 150 years. The SiO2 content decreased in accordance with the LOI increase in all cores analyzed and such inverse relationship was also tracked in the SiO2-LOI curves of historical trends. The SiO2-LOI concentration fluctuations in sites S1 and S3 also coincided with some Cu and Cr inputs in the drainage systems. PMID:25005051

  7. Chronological overlap between humans and megafauna in Sahul (Pleistocene Australia New Guinea): A review of the evidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Field, Judith; Fillios, Melanie; Wroe, Stephen

    2008-08-01

    Over 60 faunal species disappeared from the Australian continent during the Middle-Late Pleistocene. Most of these animals were large to gigantic marsupials, birds and reptiles. A terminal extinction date of 46.4 kyr has been proposed for the megafauna, with all sites containing younger fossil megafauna dismissed by some researchers because of questions over stratigraphic integrity or chronologies. The timing of the extinctions is argued to be broadly coincident with estimates of first colonization of the continent by modern humans, and explanatory extinction models involving humans have subsequently gained currency. However there is considerable evidence to suggest that in some parts of the continent, people and some species of megafauna may have co-existed well beyond 46.4 kyr. In other places, such as Tasmania and the north of the continent, there is no known record of a human-megafauna temporal overlap. A review of the available evidence indicates that only 13 species of megafauna were extant on human arrival in Australia. The archaeology of this period indicates that rather than a focus on big game hunting or 'firestick farming', it was characterized by regional variability in subsistence strategies consistent with the range of environmental zones. At the present time there is no substantive argument for a terminal extinction date of 46.4 kyr, the current evidence indicating that there is no specific time period that correlates to any single mass extinction event. On the basis of available evidence arguments for either human or climatic causation are entirely circumstantial and implicitly require acceptance of many unproven assumptions. Claims to have eliminated climate as a primary driver are premature and the recent focus on delivering 'proof' of human causation in Pleistocene faunal extinctions diverts attention from achieving a better understanding of the differential impacts of climate change and short term climatic flux in a land of environmental

  8. A millennial hydrogen isotope chronology from tree-ring cellulose contradicts the mechanistic model describing the incorporation of stable water isotopes into cellulose

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hangartner, Sarah; Kress, Anne; Saurer, Matthias; Leuenberger, Markus

    2010-05-01

    In the present study we investigated deuterium (δD) isotopes on a millennial larch (Larix decidua) tree-ring chronology from alpine sites in Valais, Switzerland. Cellulose in annual tree rings is formed from atmospheric CO2 and soil water which is eventually derived from meteoric water. Due to fractionation processes in the atmosphere, meteoric water contains a temperature signal. Climate induced signals such as the isotopic composition of cellulose is stored in annual increments of trees: source water is assimilated by the roots without any isotopic fractionation and further on transported to the leafs where isotopic ratios of the leaf water are changed by evapotranspirative enrichment and further biochemical fractionations. Finally, cellulose is synthesized from photosynthates and medium water. δD and stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O) in tree-ring cellulose are therefore expected to reflect ancient humidity and temperature in annual resolution. We applied a conventional isotope ratio mass spectrometry technique to analyse δD in α-cellulose (Filot, 2006). The investigated δD series cover the period 1000-2004 AD in three cohorts (each consisting of five trees) with a 50-year gap around 1200 AD. This required the development of methods to merge these tree-ring isotope series to assess the common signal within the different cohorts. A comparison of the δD series with the corresponding δ18O chronology revealed a common variance of around 20% in the different cohorts, which is lower than expected from the mechanistic model (Roden, 2000) - the model assumes similar pathways and fractionation processes of δD and δ18O from source water uptake to cellulose synthesis. Assessing the sensitivity of δD to changing climate variables leads to conflicting results: while temperature, sunshine duration and precipitation signals in δ18O are clearly visible, climate signals in δD are hardly detectable. Note that isotopic signals in tree-ring cellulose are not controlled by

  9. Australian Extinctions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Science Teacher, 2005

    2005-01-01

    Massive extinctions of animals and the arrival of the first humans in ancient Australia--which occurred 45,000 to 55,000 years ago--may be linked. Researchers at the Carnegie Institution, University of Colorado, Australian National University, and Bates College believe that massive fires set by the first humans may have altered the ecosystem of…

  10. Cerebral aneurysms: Formation, progression and developmental chronology

    PubMed Central

    Etminan, Nima; Buchholz, Bruce A.; Dreier, Rita; Bruckner, Peter; Torner, James C.; Steiger, Hans-Jakob; Hänggi, Daniel; Macdonald, R. Loch

    2015-01-01

    The prevalence of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UAIs) in the general population is up to 3%. Existing epidemiological data suggests that only a small fraction of UIAs progress towards rupture over the lifetime of an individual, but the surrogates for subsequent rupture and the natural history of UIAs are discussed very controversially at present. In case of rupture of an UIA, the case-fatality is up to 50%, which therefore continues to stimulate interest in the pathogenesis of cerebral aneurysm formation and progression. Actual data on the chronological development of cerebral aneurysm has been especially difficult to obtain and, until recently, the existing knowledge in this respect is mainly derived from animal or mathematical models or short-term observational studies. Here, we highlight the current data on cerebral aneurysm formation and progression as well as a novel approach to investigate the developmental chronology of cerebral aneurysms. PMID:24323717

  11. Flame-Vortex Studies to Quantify Markstein Numbers Needed to Model Flame Extinction Limits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Driscoll, James F.; Feikema, Douglas A.

    2003-01-01

    This has quantified a database of Markstein numbers for unsteady flames; future work will quantify a database of flame extinction limits for unsteady conditions. Unsteady extinction limits have not been documented previously; both a stretch rate and a residence time must be measured, since extinction requires that the stretch rate be sufficiently large for a sufficiently long residence time. Ma was measured for an inwardly-propagating flame (IPF) that is negatively-stretched under microgravity conditions. Computations also were performed using RUN-1DL to explain the measurements. The Markstein number of an inwardly-propagating flame, for both the microgravity experiment and the computations, is significantly larger than that of an outwardy-propagating flame. The computed profiles of the various species within the flame suggest reasons. Computed hydrogen concentrations build up ahead of the IPF but not the OPF. Understanding was gained by running the computations for both simplified and full-chemistry conditions. Numerical Simulations. To explain the experimental findings, numerical simulations of both inwardly and outwardly propagating spherical flames (with complex chemistry) were generated using the RUN-1DL code, which includes 16 species and 46 reactions.

  12. Extinction events can accelerate evolution.

    PubMed

    Lehman, Joel; Miikkulainen, Risto

    2015-01-01

    Extinction events impact the trajectory of biological evolution significantly. They are often viewed as upheavals to the evolutionary process. In contrast, this paper supports the hypothesis that although they are unpredictably destructive, extinction events may in the long term accelerate evolution by increasing evolvability. In particular, if extinction events extinguish indiscriminately many ways of life, indirectly they may select for the ability to expand rapidly through vacated niches. Lineages with such an ability are more likely to persist through multiple extinctions. Lending computational support for this hypothesis, this paper shows how increased evolvability will result from simulated extinction events in two computational models of evolved behavior. The conclusion is that although they are destructive in the short term, extinction events may make evolution more prolific in the long term.

  13. Extinction Events Can Accelerate Evolution

    PubMed Central

    Lehman, Joel; Miikkulainen, Risto

    2015-01-01

    Extinction events impact the trajectory of biological evolution significantly. They are often viewed as upheavals to the evolutionary process. In contrast, this paper supports the hypothesis that although they are unpredictably destructive, extinction events may in the long term accelerate evolution by increasing evolvability. In particular, if extinction events extinguish indiscriminately many ways of life, indirectly they may select for the ability to expand rapidly through vacated niches. Lineages with such an ability are more likely to persist through multiple extinctions. Lending computational support for this hypothesis, this paper shows how increased evolvability will result from simulated extinction events in two computational models of evolved behavior. The conclusion is that although they are destructive in the short term, extinction events may make evolution more prolific in the long term. PMID:26266804

  14. Chronological aging in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

    PubMed

    Longo, Valter D; Fabrizio, Paola

    2012-01-01

    The two paradigms to study aging in Saccharomyces cerevisiae are the chronological life span (CLS) and the replicative life span (RLS). The chronological life span is a measure of the mean and maximum survival time of non-dividing yeast populations while the replicative life span is based on the mean and maximum number of daughter cells generated by an individual mother cell before cell division stops irreversibly. Here we review the principal discoveries associated with yeast chronological aging and how they are contributing to the understanding of the aging process and of the molecular mechanisms that may lead to healthy aging in mammals. We will focus on the mechanisms of life span regulation by the Tor/Sch9 and the Ras/adenylate Ras/adenylate cyclase/PKA pathways with particular emphasis on those implicating age-dependent oxidative oxidative stress stress and DNA damage/repair.

  15. Dating megafaunal extinction on the Pleistocene Darling Downs, eastern Australia: the promise and pitfalls of dating as a test of extinction hypotheses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, Gilbert J.; Webb, Gregory E.; Zhao, Jian-xin; Feng, Yue-xing; Murray, Andrew S.; Cooke, Bernard N.; Hocknull, Scott A.; Sobbe, Ian H.

    2011-04-01

    A key to understanding Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinction dynamics is knowledge of megafaunal ecological response(s) to long-term environmental perturbations. Strategically, that requires targeting fossil deposits that accumulated during glacial and interglacial intervals both before and after human arrival, with subsequent palaeoecological models underpinned by robust and reliable chronologies. Late Pleistocene vertebrate fossil localities from the Darling Downs, eastern Australia, provide stratigraphically-intact, abundant megafaunal sequences, which allows for testing of anthropogenic versus climate change megafauna extinction hypotheses. Each stratigraphic unit at site QML796, Kings Creek Catchment, was previously shown to have had similar sampling potential, and the basal units contain both small-sized taxa (e.g., land snails, frogs, bandicoots, rodents) and megafauna. Importantly, sequential faunal horizons show stepwise decrease in taxonomic diversity with the loss of some, but not all, megafauna in the geographically-small palaeocatchment. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of our intensive, multidisciplinary dating study of the deposits (>40 dates). Dating by means of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C (targeting bone, freshwater molluscs, and charcoal) and thermal ionisation mass spectrometry U/Th (targeting teeth and freshwater molluscs) do not agree with each other and, in the case of AMS 14C dating, lack internal consistency. Scanning electron microscopy and rare earth element analyses demonstrate that the dated molluscs are diagenetically altered and contain aragonite cements that incorporated secondary young C, suggesting that such dates should be regarded as minimum ages. AMS 14C dated charcoals provide ages that occur out of stratigraphic order, and cluster in the upper chronological limits of the technique (˜40-48 ka). Again, we suggest that such results should be regarded as suspicious and only minimum ages. Subsequent

  16. Modeling of growth and evaporation effects on the extinction of 1.0-micron solar radiation traversing stratospheric sulfuric acid aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yue, G. K.; Deepak, A.

    1981-01-01

    The effects of growth and evaporation of stratospheric sulfuric acid aerosols on the extinction of solar radiation traversing such an aerosol medium are reported for the case of 1.0-micron solar radiation. Modeling results show that aerosol extinction is not very sensitive to the change of ambient water vapor concentration, but is sensitive to ambient temperature changes, especially at low ambient temperatures and high ambient water vapor concentration. A clarification is given of the effects of initial aerosol size distribution and composition on the change of aerosol extinction due to growth and evaporation processes. It is shown that experiments designed to observe solar radiation extinction of aerosols may also be applied to the determination of observed changes in aerosol optical properties, environmental parameters, or the physical and optical characteristics of sulfate aerosols.

  17. Cascading extinctions, functional complementarity, and selection in two-trophic-level model communities: a trait-based mechanistic approach.

    PubMed

    Sapijanskas, Jurgis; Loreau, Michel

    2010-12-01

    The influence of diversity on ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services is now well established. Yet predictive mechanistic models that link species traits and community-level processes remain scarce, particularly for multitrophic systems. Here we revisit MacArthur's classical consumer resource model and develop a trait-based approach to predict the effects of consumer diversity on cascading extinctions and aggregated ecosystem processes in a two-trophic-level system. We show that functionally redundant efficient consumers generate top-down cascading extinctions. This counterintuitive result reveals the limits of the functional redundancy concept to predict the consequences of species deletion. Our model also predicts that the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationship is different for different ecosystem processes and depends on the range of variation of consumer traits in the regional species pool, which determines the sign of selection effects. Lastly, competition among resources and consumer generalism both weaken complementarity effects, which suggests that selection effects may prevail at higher trophic levels. Our work emphasizes the potential of trait-based approaches for transforming biodiversity and ecosystem functioning research into a more predictive science.

  18. Context, Learning, and Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gershman, Samuel J.; Blei, David M.; Niv, Yael

    2010-01-01

    A. Redish et al. (2007) proposed a reinforcement learning model of context-dependent learning and extinction in conditioning experiments, using the idea of "state classification" to categorize new observations into states. In the current article, the authors propose an interpretation of this idea in terms of normative statistical inference. They…

  19. Cognitive Processes in Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lovibond, Peter F.

    2004-01-01

    Human conditioning research shows that learning is closely related to consciously available contingency knowledge, requires attentional resources, and is influenced by language. This research suggests a cognitive model in which extinction consists of changes in contingency beliefs in long-term memory. Laboratory and clinical evidence on extinction…

  20. Experimental and Kinetic Modeling Study of Extinction and Ignition of Methyl Decanoate in Laminar Nonpremixed Flows

    SciTech Connect

    Seshadri, K; Lu, T; Herbinet, O; Humer, S; Niemann, U; Pitz, W J; Law, C K

    2008-01-09

    Methyl decanoate is a large methyl ester that can be used as a surrogate for biodiesel. In this experimental and computational study, the combustion of methyl decanoate is investigated in nonpremixed, nonuniform flows. Experiments are performed employing the counterflow configuration with a fuel stream made up of vaporized methyl decanoate and nitrogen, and an oxidizer stream of air. The mass fraction of fuel in the fuel stream is measured as a function of the strain rate at extinction, and critical conditions of ignition are measured in terms of the temperature of the oxidizer stream as a function of the strain rate. It is not possible to use a fully detailed mechanism for methyl decanoate to simulate the counterflow flames because the number of species and reactions is too large to employ with current flame codes and computer resources. Therefore a skeletal mechanism was deduced from a detailed mechanism of 8555 elementary reactions and 3036 species using 'directed relation graph' method. This skeletal mechanism has only 713 elementary reactions and 125 species. Critical conditions of ignition were calculated using this skeletal mechanism and are found to agree well with experimental data. The predicted strain rate at extinction is found to be lower than the measurements. In general, the methyl decanoate mechanism provides a realistic kinetic tool for simulation of biodiesel fuels.

  1. Time-dependent extinction rate and species abundance in a tangled-nature model of biological evolution.

    PubMed

    Hall, Matt; Christensen, Kim; di Collobiano, Simone A; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft

    2002-07-01

    We present a model of evolutionary ecology consisting of a web of interacting individuals, a tangle-nature model. The reproduction rate of individuals characterized by their genome depends on the composition of the population in genotype space. Ecological features such as the taxonomy and the macroevolutionary mode of the dynamics are emergent properties. The macrodynamics exhibit intermittent two-mode switching with a gradually decreasing extinction rate. The generated ecologies become gradually better adapted as well as more complex in a collective sense. The form of the species abundance curve compares well with observed functional forms. The model's error threshold can be understood in terms of the characteristics of the two dynamical modes of the system.

  2. Astronautics and aeronautics, 1977: A chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ritchie, E. H.

    1986-01-01

    This publication is a chronology of events during the year 1977 in the fields of aeronautical and space research, development, activity, and policy. It includes appendixes, an index, and illustrations. Chronological entries list sources for further inquiry.

  3. Characterization and source apportionment of aerosol light extinction with a coupled model of CMB-IMPROVE in Hangzhou, Yangtze River Delta of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jiao; Zhang, Yu-fen; Feng, Yin-chang; Zheng, Xian-jue; Jiao, Li; Hong, Sheng-mao; Shen, Jian-dong; Zhu, Tan; Ding, Jing; Zhang, Qi

    2016-09-01

    To investigate the characteristics and sources of aerosol light extinction in the Yangtze River Delta of China, a campaign was carried out in Hangzhou from December 2013 to November 2014. Hourly data for air pollutants including PM2.5, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO, and aerosol optical properties including aerosol scattering coefficient and aerosol absorbing coefficient was obtained in the environmental air quality automatic monitoring station. Meteorological parameters were measured synchronously in the automated meteorology monitoring station. Additionally, around seven sets of ambient PM2.5 samples per month were collected and analyzed during the campaign. The annual mean aerosol scattering coefficient, aerosol absorbing coefficient and aerosol single scattering albedo measured in this study was 514 ± 284 Mm- 1, 35 ± 20 Mm- 1 and 94% respectively. The aerosol extinction coefficient reconstructed using the modified IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environment) formula was compared to the measured extinction coefficient. Better correlations could be found between the measured and reconstructed extinction coefficient when RH was under 90%. A coupled model of CMB (chemical mass balance) and modified IMPROVE was used to apportion the sources of aerosol light extinction in Hangzhou. Vehicle exhaust, secondary nitrate and secondary sulfate were identified as the most significant sources for aerosol light extinction, accounted for 30.2%, 24.1% and 15.8% respectively.

  4. Deep brain stimulation, histone deacetylase inhibitors and glutamatergic drugs rescue resistance to fear extinction in a genetic mouse model.

    PubMed

    Whittle, Nigel; Schmuckermair, Claudia; Gunduz Cinar, Ozge; Hauschild, Markus; Ferraguti, Francesco; Holmes, Andrew; Singewald, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    Anxiety disorders are characterized by persistent, excessive fear. Therapeutic interventions that reverse deficits in fear extinction represent a tractable approach to treating these disorders. We previously reported that 129S1/SvImJ (S1) mice show no extinction learning following normal fear conditioning. We now demonstrate that weak fear conditioning does permit fear reduction during massed extinction training in S1 mice, but reveals specific deficiency in extinction memory consolidation/retrieval. Rescue of this impaired extinction consolidation/retrieval was achieved with d-cycloserine (N-methly-d-aspartate partial agonist) or MS-275 (histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitor), applied after extinction training. We next examined the ability of different drugs and non-pharmacological manipulations to rescue the extreme fear extinction deficit in S1 following normal fear conditioning with the ultimate aim to produce low fear levels in extinction retrieval tests. Results showed that deep brain stimulation (DBS) by applying high frequency stimulation to the nucleus accumbens (ventral striatum) during extinction training, indeed significantly reduced fear during extinction retrieval compared to sham stimulation controls. Rescue of both impaired extinction acquisition and deficient extinction consolidation/retrieval was achieved with prior extinction training administration of valproic acid (a GABAergic enhancer and HDAC inhibitor) or AMN082 [metabotropic glutamate receptor 7 (mGlu7) agonist], while MS-275 or PEPA (AMPA receptor potentiator) failed to affect extinction acquisition in S1 mice. Collectively, these data identify potential beneficial effects of DBS and various drug treatments, including those with HDAC inhibiting or mGlu7 agonism properties, as adjuncts to overcome treatment resistance in exposure-based therapies. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled 'Cognitive Enhancers'. PMID:22722028

  5. Deep brain stimulation, histone deacetylase inhibitors and glutamatergic drugs rescue resistance to fear extinction in a genetic mouse model

    PubMed Central

    Whittle, Nigel; Schmuckermair, Claudia; Gunduz Cinar, Ozge; Hauschild, Markus; Ferraguti, Francesco; Holmes, Andrew; Singewald, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    Anxiety disorders are characterized by persistent, excessive fear. Therapeutic interventions that reverse deficits in fear extinction represent a tractable approach to treating these disorders. We previously reported that 129S1/SvImJ (S1) mice show no extinction learning following normal fear conditioning. We now demonstrate that weak fear conditioning does permit fear reduction during massed extinction training in S1 mice, but reveals specific deficiency in extinction memory consolidation/retrieval. Rescue of this impaired extinction consolidation/retrieval was achieved with d-cycloserine (N-methly-d-aspartate partial agonist) or MS-275 (histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitor), applied after extinction training. We next examined the ability of different drugs and non-pharmacological manipulations to rescue the extreme fear extinction deficit in S1 following normal fear conditioning with the ultimate aim to produce low fear levels in extinction retrieval tests. Results showed that deep brain stimulation (DBS) by applying high frequency stimulation to the nucleus accumbens (ventral striatum) during extinction training, indeed significantly reduced fear during extinction retrieval compared to sham stimulation controls. Rescue of both impaired extinction acquisition and deficient extinction consolidation/retrieval was achieved with prior extinction training administration of valproic acid (a GABAergic enhancer and HDAC inhibitor) or AMN082 [metabotropic glutamate receptor 7 (mGlu7) agonist], while MS-275 or PEPA (AMPA receptor potentiator) failed to affect extinction acquisition in S1 mice. Collectively, these data identify potential beneficial effects of DBS and various drug treatments, including those with HDAC inhibiting or mGlu7 agonism properties, as adjuncts to overcome treatment resistance in exposure-based therapies. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled ‘Cognitive Enhancers’. PMID:22722028

  6. Impossible Extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cockell, Charles S.

    2003-03-01

    Every 225 million years the Earth, and all the life on it, completes one revolution around the Milky Way Galaxy. During this remarkable journey, life is influenced by calamitous changes. Comets and asteroids strike the surface of the Earth, stars explode, enormous volcanoes erupt, and, more recently, humans litter the planet with waste. Many animals and plants become extinct during the voyage, but humble microbes, simple creatures made of a single cell, survive this journey. This book takes a tour of the microbial world, from the coldest and deepest places on Earth to the hottest and highest, and witnesses some of the most catastrophic events that life can face. Impossible Extinction tells this remarkable story to the general reader by explaining how microbes have survived on Earth for over three billion years. Charles Cockell received his doctorate from the University of Oxford, and is currently a microbiologist with rhe Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute (SETI), based at the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, UK. His research focusses on astrobiology, life in the extremes and the human exploration of Mars. Cockell has been on expeditions to the Arctic, Antarctic, Mongolia, and in 1993 he piloted a modified insect-collecting ultra-light aircraft over the Indonesian rainforests. He is Chair of the Twenty-one Eleven Foundation for Exploration, a charity that supports expeditions that forge links between space exploration and environmentalism.

  7. Large-eddy simulation/probability density function modeling of local extinction and re-ignition in Sandia Flame E

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Haifeng; Popov, Pavel; Hiremath, Varun; Lantz, Steven; Viswanathan, Sharadha; Pope, Stephen

    2010-11-01

    A large-eddy simulation (LES)/probability density function (PDF) code is developed and applied to the study of local extinction and re-ignition in Sandia Flame E. The modified Curl mixing model is used to account for the sub-filter scalar mixing; the ARM1 mechanism is used for the chemical reaction; and the in- situ adaptive tabulation (ISAT) algorithm is used to accelerate the chemistry calculations. Calculations are performed on different grids to study the resolution requirement for this flame. Then, with sufficient grid resolution, full-scale LES/PDF calculations are performed to study the flame characteristics and the turbulence-chemistry interactions. Sensitivity to the mixing frequency model is explored in order to understand the behavior of sub-filter scalar mixing in the context of LES. The simulation results are compared to the experimental data to demonstrate the capability of the code. Comparison is also made to previous RANS/PDF simulations.

  8. Assessing chronological aging in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

    PubMed

    Hu, Jia; Wei, Min; Mirisola, Mario G; Longo, Valter D

    2013-01-01

    Saccharomyces cerevisiae is one of the most studied model organisms for the identification of genes and mechanisms that affect aging. The chronological lifespan (CLS) assay, which monitors the survival of a non-dividing population, is one of the two methods to study aging in yeast. To eliminate potential artifacts and identify genes and signaling pathways that may also affect aging in higher eukaryotes, it is important to determine CLS by multiple methods. Here, we describe these methods as well as the assays to study macromolecular damage during aging in yeast, with a focus on genomic instability.

  9. Comparing records with related chronologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Albert, Paul; Kearney, Rebecca; Staff, Richard A.

    2016-04-01

    In order to integrate ice, terrestrial and marine records, it is necessary to deal with records on different timescales. These timescales can be grouped into those that use a common fundamental chronometer (such as Uranium-Thorium dating or Radiocarbon) and can also be related to one another where we have chronological tie points such as tephra horizons. More generally we can, through a number of different methodologies, derive relationships between different timescales. A good example of this is the use of cosmogenic isotope production, specifically 10Be and 14C to relate the calibrated radiocarbon timescale to that of the Greenland ice cores. The relationships between different timescales can be mathematically expressed in terms of time-transfer functions. This formalism allows any related record to be considered against any linked timescale with an appropriate associated uncertainty. The prototype INTIMATE chronological database allows records to be viewed and compared in this way and this is now being further developed, both to include a wider range of records and also to provide better connectivity to other databases and chronological tools. These developments will also include new ways to use tephra tie-points to constrain the relationship between timescales directly, without needing to remodel each associated timescale. The database as it stands allows data for particular timeframes to be recalled and plotted against any timescale, or exported in spreadsheet format. New functionality will be added to allow users to work with their own data in a private space and then to publish it when it has been through the peer-review publication process. In order to make the data easier to use for other further analysis and plotting, and with data from other sources, the database will also act as a server to deliver data in a JSON format. The aim of this work is to make the comparison of integrated data much easier for researchers and to ensure that good practice in

  10. Cosmic strings and chronology protection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, James D. E.

    1993-03-01

    A space consisting of two rapidly moving cosmic strings has recently been constructed by Gott that contains closed timelike curves. The global structure of this space is analyzed and it is found that, away from the strings, the space is identical to a generalized Misner space. The vacuum expectation value of the energy-momentum tensor for a conformally coupled scalar field is calculated on this generalized Misner space. It is found to diverge very weakly on the chronology horizon, but more strongly on the polarized hypersurfaces. The divergence on the polarized hypersurfaces is strong enough that when the proper geodesic interval around any polarized hypersurface is of the order of the Planck length squared, the perturbation to the metric caused by the back reaction will be of the order one. Thus we expect the structure of the space will be radically altered by the back reaction before quantum gravitational effects become important. This suggests that Hawking's ``chronology protection conjecture'' holds for spaces with a noncompactly generated chronology horizon.

  11. Discreteness induced extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    dos Santos, Renato Vieira; da Silva, Linaena Méricy

    2015-11-01

    Two simple models based on ecological problems are discussed from the point of view of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. It is shown how discrepant may be the results of the models that include spatial distribution with discrete interactions when compared with the continuous analogous models. In the continuous case we have, under certain circumstances, the population explosion. When we take into account the finiteness of the population, we get the opposite result, extinction. We will analyze how these results depend on the dimension d of the space and describe the phenomenon of the "Discreteness Inducing Extinction" (DIE). The results are interpreted in the context of the "paradox of sex", an old problem of evolutionary biology.

  12. Identifying species at extinction risk using global models of anthropogenic impact.

    PubMed

    Peters, Howard; O'Leary, Bethan C; Hawkins, Julie P; Roberts, Callum M

    2015-02-01

    The International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Endangered Species employs a robust, standardized approach to assess extinction threat focussed on taxa approaching an end-point in population decline. Used alone, we argue this enforces a reactive approach to conservation. Species not assessed as threatened but which occur predominantly in areas with high levels of anthropogenic impact may require proactive conservation management to prevent loss. We matched distribution and bathymetric range data from the global Red List assessment of 632 species of marine cone snails with human impacts and projected ocean thermal stress and aragonite saturation (a proxy for ocean acidification). Our results show 67 species categorized as 'Least Concern' have 70% or more of their occupancy in places subject to high and very high levels of human impact with 18 highly restricted species (range <100 km(2)) living exclusively in such places. Using a range-rarity scoring method we identified where clusters of endemic species are subject to all three stressors: high human impact, declining aragonite saturation levels and elevated thermal stress. Our approach reinforces Red List threatened status, highlights candidate species for reassessment, contributes important evidential data to minimize data deficiency and identifies regions and species for proactive conservation. PMID:25236755

  13. Identifying species at extinction risk using global models of anthropogenic impact.

    PubMed

    Peters, Howard; O'Leary, Bethan C; Hawkins, Julie P; Roberts, Callum M

    2015-02-01

    The International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Endangered Species employs a robust, standardized approach to assess extinction threat focussed on taxa approaching an end-point in population decline. Used alone, we argue this enforces a reactive approach to conservation. Species not assessed as threatened but which occur predominantly in areas with high levels of anthropogenic impact may require proactive conservation management to prevent loss. We matched distribution and bathymetric range data from the global Red List assessment of 632 species of marine cone snails with human impacts and projected ocean thermal stress and aragonite saturation (a proxy for ocean acidification). Our results show 67 species categorized as 'Least Concern' have 70% or more of their occupancy in places subject to high and very high levels of human impact with 18 highly restricted species (range <100 km(2)) living exclusively in such places. Using a range-rarity scoring method we identified where clusters of endemic species are subject to all three stressors: high human impact, declining aragonite saturation levels and elevated thermal stress. Our approach reinforces Red List threatened status, highlights candidate species for reassessment, contributes important evidential data to minimize data deficiency and identifies regions and species for proactive conservation.

  14. Mars chronology: Assessing techniques for quantifying surficial processes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Doran, P.T.; Clifford, S.M.; Forman, S.L.; Nyquist, L.; Papanastassiou, D.A.; Stewart, B.W.; Sturchio, N.C.; Swindle, T.D.; Cerling, T.; Kargel, J.; McDonald, G.; Nishiizumi, K.; Poreda, R.; Rice, J.W.; Tanaka, K.

    2004-01-01

    Currently, the absolute chronology of Martian rocks, deposits and events is based mainly on crater counting and remains highly imprecise with epoch boundary uncertainties in excess of 2 billion years. Answers to key questions concerning the comparative origin and evolution of Mars and Earth will not be forthcoming without a rigid Martian chronology, enabling the construction of a time scale comparable to Earth's. Priorities for exploration include calibration of the cratering rate, dating major volcanic and fluvial events and establishing chronology of the polar layered deposits. If extinct and/or extant life is discovered, the chronology of the biosphere will be of paramount importance. Many radiometric and cosmogenic techniques applicable on Earth and the Moon will apply to Mars after certain baselines (e.g. composition of the atmosphere, trace species, chemical and physical characteristics of Martian dust) are established. The high radiation regime may pose a problem for dosimetry-based techniques (e.g. luminescence). The unique isotopic composition of nitrogen in the Martian atmosphere may permit a Mars-specific chronometer for tracing the time-evolution of the atmosphere and of lithic phases with trapped atmospheric gases. Other Mars-specific chronometers include measurement of gas fluxes and accumulation of platinum group elements (PGE) in the regolith. Putting collected samples into geologic context is deemed essential, as is using multiple techniques on multiple samples. If in situ measurements are restricted to a single technique it must be shown to give consistent results on multiple samples, but in all cases, using two or more techniques (e.g. on the same lander) will reduce error. While there is no question that returned samples will yield the best ages, in situ techniques have the potential to be flown on multiple missions providing a larger data set and broader context in which to place the more accurate dates. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  15. Mars chronology: assessing techniques for quantifying surficial processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doran, Peter T.; Clifford, Stephen M.; Forman, Steven L.; Nyquist, Larry; Papanastassiou, Dimitri A.; Stewart, Brian W.; Sturchio, Neil C.; Swindle, Timothy D.; Cerling, Thure; Kargel, Jeff

    2004-01-01

    Currently, the absolute chronology of Martian rocks, deposits and events is based mainly on crater counting and remains highly imprecise with epoch boundary uncertainties in excess of 2 billion years. Answers to key questions concerning the comparative origin and evolution of Mars and Earth will not be forthcoming without a rigid Martian chronology, enabling the construction of a time scale comparable to Earth's. Priorities for exploration include calibration of the cratering rate, dating major volcanic and fluvial events and establishing chronology of the polar layered deposits. If extinct andor extant life is discovered, the chronology of the biosphere will be of paramount importance. Many radiometric and cosmogenic techniques applicable on Earth and the Moon will apply to Mars after certain baselines (e.g. composition of the atmosphere, trace species, chemical and physical characteristics of Martian dust) are established. The high radiation regime may pose a problem for dosimetry-based techniques (e.g. luminescence). The unique isotopic composition of nitrogen in the Martian atmosphere may permit a Mars-specific chronometer for tracing the time-evolution of the atmosphere and of lithic phases with trapped atmospheric gases. Other Mars-specific chronometers include measurement of gas fluxes and accumulation of platinum group elements (PGE) in the regolith. Putting collected samples into geologic context is deemed essential, as is using multiple techniques on multiple samples. If in situ measurements are restricted to a single technique it must be shown to give consistent results on multiple samples, but in all cases, using two or more techniques (e.g. on the same lander) will reduce error. While there is no question that returned samples will yield the best ages, in situ techniques have the potential to be flown on multiple missions providing a larger data set and broader context in which to place the more accurate dates.

  16. Phase function, backscatter, extinction, and absorption for standard radiation atmosphere and El Chichon aerosol models at visible and near-infrared wavelengths

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitlock, C. H.; Suttles, J. T.; Lecroy, S. R.

    1985-01-01

    Tabular values of phase function, Legendre polynominal coefficients, 180 deg backscatter, and extinction cross section are given for eight wavelengths in the atmospheric windows between 0.4 and 2.2 microns. Also included are single scattering albedo, asymmetry factor, and refractive indices. These values are based on Mie theory calculations for the standard rediation atmospheres (continental, maritime, urban, unperturbed stratospheric, volcanic, upper atmospheric, soot, oceanic, dust, and water-soluble) assest measured volcanic aerosols at several time intervals following the El Chichon eruption. Comparisons of extinction to 180 deg backscatter for different aerosol models are presented and related to lidar data.

  17. Pulsar extinction. [astrophysics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sturrock, P. A.; Baker, K.; Turk, J. S.

    1975-01-01

    Radio emission from pulsars, attributed to an instability associated with the creation of electron-positron pairs from gamma rays was investigated. The condition for pair creation therefore lead to an extinction condition. The relevant physical processes were analyzed in the context of a mathematical model, according to which radiation originated at the polar caps and magnetic field lines changed from a closed configuration to an open configuration at the force balance or corotation radius.

  18. The extinction differential induced virulence macroevolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Feng; Xu, Liufang; Wang, Jin

    2014-04-01

    We apply the potential-flux landscape theory to deal with the large fluctuation induced extinction phenomena. We quantify the most probable extinction pathway on the landscape and measure the extinction risk by the landscape topography. In this Letter, we investigate the disease extinction through an epidemic model described by a set of chemical reaction. We found the virulence-differential-dependent symbioses between mother and daughter pathogen species: mutualism and parasitism. The symbioses, whether mutualism or parasitism, benefit the higher virulence species. This implies that speciation towards lower virulence is an effective strategy for a pathogen species to reduce its extinction risk.

  19. Ancient Egyptian chronology and the astronomical orientation of pyramids.

    PubMed

    Spence, K

    2000-11-16

    The ancient Egyptian pyramids at Giza have never been accurately dated, although we know that they were built approximately around the middle of the third millennium BC. The chronologies of this period have been reconstructed from surviving lists of kings and the lengths of their reigns, but the lists are rare, seldom complete and contain known inconsistencies and errors. As a result, the existing chronologies for that period (the Old Kingdom) can be considered accurate only to about +/-100 years, a figure that radiocarbon dating cannot at present improve. Here I use trends in the orientation of Old Kingdom pyramids to demonstrate that the Egyptians aligned them to north by using the simultaneous transit of two circumpolar stars. Modelling the precession of these stars yields a date for the start of construction of the Great Pyramid that is accurate to +/-5 yr, thereby providing an anchor for the Old Kingdom chronologies.

  20. Estimating taxonomic diversity, extinction rates, and speciation rates from fossil data using capture-recapture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Pollock, K.H.

    1983-01-01

    Capture-recapture models can be used to estimate parameters of interest from paleobiological data when encouter probabilities are unknown and variable over time. These models also permit estimation of sampling variances and goodness-of-fit tests are available for assessing the fit of data to most models. The authors describe capture-recapture models which should be useful in paleobiological analyses and discuss the assumptions which underlie them. They illustrate these models with examples and discuss aspects of study design.

  1. Extinction, Relapse, and Behavioral Momentum

    PubMed Central

    Podlesnik, Christopher A.; Shahan, Timothy A.

    2010-01-01

    Previous experiments on behavioral momentum have shown that relative resistance to extinction of operant behavior in the presence of a discriminative stimulus depends upon the baseline rate or magnitude of reinforcement associated with that stimulus (i.e., the Pavlovian stimulus-reinforcer relation). Recently, we have shown that relapse of operant behavior in reinstatement, resurgence, and context renewal preparations also is a function of baseline stimulus-reinforcer relations. In this paper we present new data examining the role of baseline stimulus-reinforcer relations on resistance to extinction and relapse using a variety of baseline training conditions and relapse operations. Furthermore, we evaluate the adequacy of a behavioral-momentum based model in accounting for the results. The model suggests that relapse occurs as a result of a decrease in the disruptive impact of extinction precipitated by a change in circumstances associated with extinction, and that the degree of relapse is a function of the pre-extinction baseline Pavlovian stimulus-reinforcer relation. Across experiments, relative resistance to extinction and relapse were greater in the presence of stimuli associated with more favorable conditions of reinforcement and were positively related to one another. In addition, the model did a good job in accounting for these effects. Thus, behavioral momentum theory may provide a useful quantitative approach for characterizing how differential reinforcement conditions contribute to relapse of operant behavior. PMID:20152889

  2. Extinction, relapse, and behavioral momentum.

    PubMed

    Podlesnik, Christopher A; Shahan, Timothy A

    2010-05-01

    Previous experiments on behavioral momentum have shown that relative resistance to extinction of operant behavior in the presence of a discriminative stimulus depends upon the baseline rate or magnitude of reinforcement associated with that stimulus (i.e., the Pavlovian stimulus-reinforcer relation). Recently, we have shown that relapse of operant behavior in reinstatement, resurgence, and context renewal preparations also is a function of baseline stimulus-reinforcer relations. In this paper we present new data examining the role of baseline stimulus-reinforcer relations on resistance to extinction and relapse using a variety of baseline training conditions and relapse operations. Furthermore, we evaluate the adequacy of a behavioral momentum based model in accounting for the results. The model suggests that relapse occurs as a result of a decrease in the disruptive impact of extinction precipitated by a change in circumstances associated with extinction, and that the degree of relapse is a function of the pre-extinction baseline Pavlovian stimulus-reinforcer relation. Across experiments, relative resistance to extinction and relapse were greater in the presence of stimuli associated with more favorable conditions of reinforcement and were positively related to one another. In addition, the model did a good job in accounting for these effects. Thus, behavioral momentum theory may provide a useful quantitative approach for characterizing how differential reinforcement conditions contribute to relapse of operant behavior. PMID:20152889

  3. Extinction, relapse, and behavioral momentum.

    PubMed

    Podlesnik, Christopher A; Shahan, Timothy A

    2010-05-01

    Previous experiments on behavioral momentum have shown that relative resistance to extinction of operant behavior in the presence of a discriminative stimulus depends upon the baseline rate or magnitude of reinforcement associated with that stimulus (i.e., the Pavlovian stimulus-reinforcer relation). Recently, we have shown that relapse of operant behavior in reinstatement, resurgence, and context renewal preparations also is a function of baseline stimulus-reinforcer relations. In this paper we present new data examining the role of baseline stimulus-reinforcer relations on resistance to extinction and relapse using a variety of baseline training conditions and relapse operations. Furthermore, we evaluate the adequacy of a behavioral momentum based model in accounting for the results. The model suggests that relapse occurs as a result of a decrease in the disruptive impact of extinction precipitated by a change in circumstances associated with extinction, and that the degree of relapse is a function of the pre-extinction baseline Pavlovian stimulus-reinforcer relation. Across experiments, relative resistance to extinction and relapse were greater in the presence of stimuli associated with more favorable conditions of reinforcement and were positively related to one another. In addition, the model did a good job in accounting for these effects. Thus, behavioral momentum theory may provide a useful quantitative approach for characterizing how differential reinforcement conditions contribute to relapse of operant behavior.

  4. The Effects of Chronological Presentation of Information on Processing and Memory for Broadcast News.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lang, Annie; And Others

    To test the hypothesis that news stories written in chronological order are remembered better than news stories written in typical broadcast format, a study used a mixed model factorial design to examine factors of style (traditional or chronological), subject (content of news story), and order (placement of the story within the newscast). Two…

  5. Flood basalt eruptions, comet showers, and mass extinction events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rampino, Michael R.; Stothers, Richard B.

    1988-01-01

    A chronology of initiation dates of the major continental flood basalt episodes has been established from compilation of published K-Ar and Ar-Ar ages of basaltic flows and related basic intrusions. The dating is therefore independent of the biostratigraphic and paleomagnetic time scales, and the estimated errors of the inititation dates are approximately + or - 4 pct. There are 11 distinct episodes of continental flood basalts known during the past 250 Myr. The data show that flood basalt episodes are generally relatively brief geologic events, with intermittent eruptions during peak output periods lasting ony 2 to 3 Myr or less. Statistical analyses suggest that these episodes may have occurred quasi-periodically with a mean cycle time of 32 + or - 1 Myr. The initiation dates of the flood basalts are close to the estimated dates of marine mass extinctions and impact-crater clusters. Although a purely internal forcing might be argued for the flood basalt volcanism, quasi-periodic comet impacts may be the trigger for both the flood basalts and the extinctions. Impact cratering models suggest that large-body impactors lead to deep initial cratering, and therefore may cause mantle disturbances and initiate mantle plume activity. The flood basalt episodes commonly mark the initiation or jump of a mantle hotspot, and are often followed by continental rifting and separation. Evidence from dynamical studies of impacts, occurrences of craters and hotspots, and the geochemistry of boundary layers is synthesized to provide a possible model of impact-generated volcanism. Flood basalt eruptions may themselves have severe effects on climate, and possibly on life. Impacts might, as a result, have led to mass extinctions through direct atmospheric disturbances, and/or indirectly through prolonged flood basalt volcanism.

  6. Converging towards the optimal path to extinction

    PubMed Central

    Schwartz, Ira B.; Forgoston, Eric; Bianco, Simone; Shaw, Leah B.

    2011-01-01

    Extinction appears ubiquitously in many fields, including chemical reactions, population biology, evolution and epidemiology. Even though extinction as a random process is a rare event, its occurrence is observed in large finite populations. Extinction occurs when fluctuations owing to random transitions act as an effective force that drives one or more components or species to vanish. Although there are many random paths to an extinct state, there is an optimal path that maximizes the probability to extinction. In this paper, we show that the optimal path is associated with the dynamical systems idea of having maximum sensitive dependence to initial conditions. Using the equivalence between the sensitive dependence and the path to extinction, we show that the dynamical systems picture of extinction evolves naturally towards the optimal path in several stochastic models of epidemics. PMID:21571943

  7. Phylogenetic conservatism of extinctions in marine bivalves.

    PubMed

    Roy, Kaustuv; Hunt, Gene; Jablonski, David

    2009-08-01

    Evolutionary histories of species and lineages can influence their vulnerabilities to extinction, but the importance of this effect remains poorly explored for extinctions in the geologic past. When analyzed using a standardized taxonomy within a phylogenetic framework, extinction rates of marine bivalves estimated from the fossil record for the last approximately 200 million years show conservatism at multiple levels of evolutionary divergence, both within individual families and among related families. The strength of such phylogenetic clustering varies over time and is influenced by earlier extinction history, especially by the demise of volatile taxa in the end-Cretaceous mass extinction. Analyses of the evolutionary roles of ancient extinctions and predictive models of vulnerability of taxa to future natural and anthropogenic stressors should take phylogenetic relationships and extinction history into account.

  8. Radiocarbon dates on bones of extinct birds from Hawaii

    SciTech Connect

    James, H.F.; Stafford, T.W. Jr.; Steadman, D.W.; Olson, S.L.; Martin, P.S.; Jull, A.J.; McCoy, P.C.

    1987-04-01

    Bones from a stratified sedimentary deposit in the Puu Naio Cave site on Maui, Hawaiian Islands, reveal the late Holocene extinction of 19 species of birds. The age of the sediment and associated fauna was determined by direct radiocarbon dating (tandem particle accelerator-mass spectrometer; TAMS) of amino acids extracted from bones weighing as little as 450 mg. The /sup 14/C dates indicate that sediment has been accumulating in the lava tube for at least the last 7750 years, a suitable time frame for testing the hypothesis that Holocene extinction on islands began after human colonization. Despite growing evidence that a worldwide wave of extinctions coincided with human colonization of oceanic islands, little radiometric data have been available to date the extinction of most small fossil vertebrates on islands. The TAMS technique of dating purified collagen from the bones of small vertebrates could lead to vastly improved chronologies of extinction for oceanic islands where catastrophic mid- to late-Holocene extinction is expected or known to have occurred. Chronologies derived from nonarcheological sites that show continuous sedimentation, such as the Puu Naio Cave deposit, may also yield key evidence on the timing of earliest human settlement of Oceania.

  9. Radiocarbon dates on bones of extinct birds from Hawaii.

    PubMed

    James, H F; Stafford, T W; Steadman, D W; Olson, S L; Martin, P S; Jull, A J; McCoy, P C

    1987-04-01

    Bones from a stratified sedimentary deposit in the Puu Naio Cave site on Maui, Hawaiian Islands, reveal the late Holocene extinction of 19 species of birds. The age of the sediment and associated fauna was determined by direct radiocarbon dating (tandem particle accelerator-mass spectrometer; TAMS) of amino acids extracted from bones weighing as little as 450 mg. The 14C dates indicate that sediment has been accumulating in the lava tube for at least the last 7750 years, a suitable time frame for testing the hypothesis that Holocene extinction on islands began after human colonization. Despite growing evidence that a worldwide wave of extinctions coincided with human colonization of oceanic islands, little radiometric data have been available to date the extinction of most small fossil vertebrates on islands. The TAMS technique of dating purified collagen from the bones of small vertebrates could lead to vastly improved chronologies of extinction for oceanic islands where catastrophic mid- to late-Holocene extinction is expected or known to have occurred. Chronologies derived from nonarcheological sites that show continuous sedimentation, such as the Puu Naio Cave deposit, may also yield key evidence on the timing of earliest human settlement of Oceania.

  10. Radiocarbon dates on bones of extinct birds from Hawaii.

    PubMed Central

    James, H F; Stafford, T W; Steadman, D W; Olson, S L; Martin, P S; Jull, A J; McCoy, P C

    1987-01-01

    Bones from a stratified sedimentary deposit in the Puu Naio Cave site on Maui, Hawaiian Islands, reveal the late Holocene extinction of 19 species of birds. The age of the sediment and associated fauna was determined by direct radiocarbon dating (tandem particle accelerator-mass spectrometer; TAMS) of amino acids extracted from bones weighing as little as 450 mg. The 14C dates indicate that sediment has been accumulating in the lava tube for at least the last 7750 years, a suitable time frame for testing the hypothesis that Holocene extinction on islands began after human colonization. Despite growing evidence that a worldwide wave of extinctions coincided with human colonization of oceanic islands, little radiometric data have been available to date the extinction of most small fossil vertebrates on islands. The TAMS technique of dating purified collagen from the bones of small vertebrates could lead to vastly improved chronologies of extinction for oceanic islands where catastrophic mid- to late-Holocene extinction is expected or known to have occurred. Chronologies derived from nonarcheological sites that show continuous sedimentation, such as the Puu Naio Cave deposit, may also yield key evidence on the timing of earliest human settlement of Oceania. Images PMID:3470800

  11. Refining reproductive parameters for modelling sustainability and extinction in hunted primate populations in the Amazon.

    PubMed

    Bowler, Mark; Anderson, Matt; Montes, Daniel; Pérez, Pedro; Mayor, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Primates are frequently hunted in Amazonia. Assessing the sustainability of hunting is essential to conservation planning. The most-used sustainability model, the 'Production Model', and more recent spatial models, rely on basic reproductive parameters for accuracy. These parameters are often crudely estimated. To date, parameters used for the Amazon's most-hunted primate, the woolly monkey (Lagothrix spp.), come from captive populations in the 1960s, when captive births were rare. Furthermore, woolly monkeys have since been split into five species. We provide reproductive parameters calculated by examining the reproductive organs of female Poeppig's woolly monkeys (Lagothrix poeppigii), collected by hunters as part of their normal subsistence activity. Production was 0.48-0.54 young per female per year, and an interbirth interval of 22.3 to 25.2 months, similar to parameters from captive populations. However, breeding was seasonal, which imposes limits on the maximum reproductive rate attainable. We recommend the use of spatial models over the Production Model, since they are less sensitive to error in estimated reproductive rates. Further refinements to reproductive parameters are needed for most primate taxa. Methods like ours verify the suitability of captive reproductive rates for sustainability analysis and population modelling for populations under differing conditions of hunting pressure and seasonality. Without such research, population modelling is based largely on guesswork. PMID:24714614

  12. Refining Reproductive Parameters for Modelling Sustainability and Extinction in Hunted Primate Populations in the Amazon

    PubMed Central

    Bowler, Mark; Anderson, Matt; Montes, Daniel; Pérez, Pedro; Mayor, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Primates are frequently hunted in Amazonia. Assessing the sustainability of hunting is essential to conservation planning. The most-used sustainability model, the ‘Production Model’, and more recent spatial models, rely on basic reproductive parameters for accuracy. These parameters are often crudely estimated. To date, parameters used for the Amazon’s most-hunted primate, the woolly monkey (Lagothrix spp.), come from captive populations in the 1960s, when captive births were rare. Furthermore, woolly monkeys have since been split into five species. We provide reproductive parameters calculated by examining the reproductive organs of female Poeppig’s woolly monkeys (Lagothrix poeppigii), collected by hunters as part of their normal subsistence activity. Production was 0.48–0.54 young per female per year, and an interbirth interval of 22.3 to 25.2 months, similar to parameters from captive populations. However, breeding was seasonal, which imposes limits on the maximum reproductive rate attainable. We recommend the use of spatial models over the Production Model, since they are less sensitive to error in estimated reproductive rates. Further refinements to reproductive parameters are needed for most primate taxa. Methods like ours verify the suitability of captive reproductive rates for sustainability analysis and population modelling for populations under differing conditions of hunting pressure and seasonality. Without such research, population modelling is based largely on guesswork. PMID:24714614

  13. Phanerozoic Biodiversity Mass Extinctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bambach, Richard K.

    2006-05-01

    Recent analyses of Sepkoski's genus-level compendium show that only three events form a statistically separate class of high extinction intensities when only post-Early Ordovician intervals are considered, but geologists have called numerous events mass extinctions. Is this a conflict? A review of different methods of tabulating data from the Sepkoski database reveals 18 intervals during the Phanerozoic have peaks of both magnitude and rate of extinction that appear in each tabulating scheme. These intervals all fit Sepkoski's definition of mass extinction. However, they vary widely in timing and effect of extinction, demonstrating that mass extinctions are not a homogeneous group of events. No consensus has been reached on the kill mechanism for any marine mass extinction. In fact, adequate data on timing in ecologic, rather than geologic, time and on geographic and environmental distribution of extinction have not yet been systematically compiled for any extinction event.

  14. S-R Associations, Their Extinction, and Recovery in an Animal Model of Anxiety: A New Associative Account of Phobias Without Recall of Original Trauma

    PubMed Central

    Laborda, Mario A.; Miller, Ralph R.

    2012-01-01

    Associative accounts of the etiology of phobias have been criticized because of numerous cases of phobias in which the client does not remember a relevant traumatic event (i.e., Pavlovian conditioning trial), instructions, or vicarious experience with the phobic object. In three lick suppression experiments with rats as subjects, we modeled an associative account of such fears. Experiment 1 assessed stimulus-response (S-R) associations in first-order fear conditioning. After behaviorally complete devaluation of the unconditioned stimulus, the target stimulus still produced strong conditioned responses, suggesting that an S-R association had been formed and that this association was not significantly affected when the outcome was devalued through unsignaled presentations of the unconditioned stimulus. Experiments 2 and 3 examined extinction and recovery of S-R associations. Experiment 2 showed that extinguished S-R associations returned when testing occurred outside of the extinction context (i.e., renewal) and Experiment 3 found that a long delay between extinction and testing also produced a return of the extinguished S-R associations (i.e., spontaneous recovery). These experiments suggest that fears for which people cannot recall a cause are explicable in an associative framework, and indicate that those fears are susceptible to relapse after extinction treatment just like stimulus-outcome (S-O) associations. PMID:21496503

  15. An ecocultural model predicts Neanderthal extinction through competition with modern humans

    PubMed Central

    Gilpin, William; Feldman, Marcus W.; Aoki, Kenichi

    2016-01-01

    Archaeologists argue that the replacement of Neanderthals by modern humans was driven by interspecific competition due to a difference in culture level. To assess the cogency of this argument, we construct and analyze an interspecific cultural competition model based on the Lotka−Volterra model, which is widely used in ecology, but which incorporates the culture level of a species as a variable interacting with population size. We investigate the conditions under which a difference in culture level between cognitively equivalent species, or alternatively a difference in underlying learning ability, may produce competitive exclusion of a comparatively (although not absolutely) large local Neanderthal population by an initially smaller modern human population. We find, in particular, that this competitive exclusion is more likely to occur when population growth occurs on a shorter timescale than cultural change, or when the competition coefficients of the Lotka−Volterra model depend on the difference in the culture levels of the interacting species. PMID:26831111

  16. An ecocultural model predicts Neanderthal extinction through competition with modern humans.

    PubMed

    Gilpin, William; Feldman, Marcus W; Aoki, Kenichi

    2016-02-23

    Archaeologists argue that the replacement of Neanderthals by modern humans was driven by interspecific competition due to a difference in culture level. To assess the cogency of this argument, we construct and analyze an interspecific cultural competition model based on the Lotka-Volterra model, which is widely used in ecology, but which incorporates the culture level of a species as a variable interacting with population size. We investigate the conditions under which a difference in culture level between cognitively equivalent species, or alternatively a difference in underlying learning ability, may produce competitive exclusion of a comparatively (although not absolutely) large local Neanderthal population by an initially smaller modern human population. We find, in particular, that this competitive exclusion is more likely to occur when population growth occurs on a shorter timescale than cultural change, or when the competition coefficients of the Lotka-Volterra model depend on the difference in the culture levels of the interacting species.

  17. An ecocultural model predicts Neanderthal extinction through competition with modern humans.

    PubMed

    Gilpin, William; Feldman, Marcus W; Aoki, Kenichi

    2016-02-23

    Archaeologists argue that the replacement of Neanderthals by modern humans was driven by interspecific competition due to a difference in culture level. To assess the cogency of this argument, we construct and analyze an interspecific cultural competition model based on the Lotka-Volterra model, which is widely used in ecology, but which incorporates the culture level of a species as a variable interacting with population size. We investigate the conditions under which a difference in culture level between cognitively equivalent species, or alternatively a difference in underlying learning ability, may produce competitive exclusion of a comparatively (although not absolutely) large local Neanderthal population by an initially smaller modern human population. We find, in particular, that this competitive exclusion is more likely to occur when population growth occurs on a shorter timescale than cultural change, or when the competition coefficients of the Lotka-Volterra model depend on the difference in the culture levels of the interacting species. PMID:26831111

  18. Extinct radioactivities - A three-phase mixing model. [for early solar system abundances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clayton, D. D.

    1983-01-01

    A new class of models is advanced for interpreting the relationship of radioactive abundances in the early solar system to their average concentration in the interstellar medium. The model assumes that fresh radioactivities are ejected from supernovae into the hot interstellar medium, and that the time scales for changes of phase into molecular clouds determine how much survives for formation therein of the solar system. A more realistic and physically motivated understanding of the low observed concentrations of I-129, Pu-244, and Pd-107 may result.

  19. A Model of Amygdala-Hippocampal-Prefrontal Interaction in Fear Conditioning and Extinction in Animals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moustafa, Ahmed A.; Gilbertson, Mark W.; Orr, Scott P.; Herzallah, Mohammad M.; Servatius, Richard J.; Myers, Catherine E.

    2013-01-01

    Empirical research has shown that the amygdala, hippocampus, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) are involved in fear conditioning. However, the functional contribution of each brain area and the nature of their interactions are not clearly understood. Here, we extend existing neural network models of the functional roles of the hippocampus…

  20. The stratigraphy of mass extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holland, Steven

    2015-04-01

    The discovery of the end-Cretaceous bolide impact and the recognition of mass extinctions through taxonomic compendia triggered keen interest in the stratigraphic pattern of species extinctions. A principal question has been whether patterns of fossil occurrence indicate gradual, stepwise, pulsed, or instantaneous extinction. Based on principles of sequence stratigraphy, marine ecology, and evolution, numerical models of fossil occurrences in stratigraphic sections indicate that the last occurrence of fossils does not generally indicate the time of extinction but is instead controlled by stratigraphic architecture. These models have been confirmed in multiple field studies from different sedimentary basins of different ages. These models identify several distinct processes controlling the last occurrence of fossils. Anything that lowers the probability of collection of a species, such as peak abundance or environmental tolerance, causes the last occurrence to be shifted backward in time relative to the time of extinction. Sequence-bounding subaerial unconformities generally also force the last occurrence backward in time, except in the case of reworking, which may place fossil remains in rocks younger than the time of extinction. Unconformities also cause last occurrences of multiple species to be clustered as a result of the hiatus. Surfaces of abrupt facies change, such as flooding surfaces and surfaces of forced regression, also cause last occurrences to be clustered, with such clustering reflecting the environmental preferences of species. Stratigraphic condensation can also cause clustering of last occurrences. All of these surfaces - subaerial unconformities, flooding surfaces, surfaces of forced regression, and condensed horizons - have highly predictable positions with depositional sequences. Thus, it is the normal expectation that last occurrences should be clustered in the fossil record, that these clusters should occur in stratigraphically predictable

  1. Mass extinctions vs. uniformitarianism in biological evolution

    SciTech Connect

    Bak, P.; Paczuski, M.

    1995-12-31

    It is usually believed that Darwin`s theory leads to a smooth gradual evolution, so that mass extinctions must be caused by external shocks. However, it has recently been argued that mass extinctions arise from the intrinsic dynamics of Darwinian evolution. Species become extinct when swept by intermittent avalanches propagating through the global ecology. These ideas are made concrete through studies of simple mathematical models of co-evolving species. The models exhibit self-organized criticality and describe some general features of the extinction pattern in the fossil record.

  2. Critical review of a new volcanic eruption chronology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhäuser, Dagmar L.; Neuhäuser, Ralph

    2016-04-01

    Sigl. et al. (2015, Nature) present historical evidence for 32 volcanic eruptions to evaluate their new polar ice core 10-Be chronology - 24 are dated within three years of sulfur layers in polar ice. Most of them can be interpreted as weather phenomena (Babylonia: disk of sun like moon, reported for only one day, e.g. extinction due to clouds), Chinese sunspot reports (pellet, black vapor, etc.), solar eclipses, normal ice-halos and coronae (ring, bow, etc.), one aurora (redness), red suns due to mist drops in wet fog or fire-smoke, etc. Volcanic dust may facilitate detections of sunspots and formation of Bishop's ring, but tend to inhibit ice-halos, which are otherwise often reported in chronicles. We are left with three reports possibly indicating volcanic eruptions, namely fulfilling genuine criteria for atmospheric disturbances due to volcanic dust, e.g. bluish or faint sun, orange sky, or fainting of stars for months (BCE 208, 44-42, and 32). Among the volcanic eruptions used to fix the chronology (CE 536, 626, 939, 1257), the reports cited for the 930s deal only with 1-2 days, at least one reports an eclipse. In the new chronology, there is a sulfur detection eight years after the Vesuvius eruption, but none in CE 79. It may appear surprising that, from BCE 500 to 1, all five northern sulfur peaks labeled in figure 2 in Sigl et al. are systematically later by 2-4 years than the (corresponding?) southern peaks, while all five southern peaks from CE 100 to 600 labeled in figure 2 are systematically later by 1-4 years than the (corresponding?) northern peaks. Furthermore, in most of their six strongest volcanic eruptions, temperatures decreased years before their sulfur dating - correlated with weak solar activity as seen in radiocarbon, so that volcanic climate forcing appears dubious here. Also, their 10-Be peaks at CE 775 and 994 are neither significant nor certain in dating.

  3. Increasing the persistence of a heterogeneous behavior chain: Studies of extinction in a rat model of search behavior of working dogs.

    PubMed

    Thrailkill, Eric A; Kacelnik, Alex; Porritt, Fay; Bouton, Mark E

    2016-08-01

    Dogs trained to search for contraband perform a chain of behavior in which they first search for a target and then make a separate response that indicates to the trainer that they have found one. The dogs often conduct multiple searches without encountering a target and receiving the reinforcer (i.e., no contraband is present). Understanding extinction (i.e., the decline in work rate when reinforcers are no longer encountered) may assist in training dogs to work in conditions where targets are rare. We therefore trained rats on a search-target behavior chain modeled on the search behavior of working dogs. A discriminative stimulus signaled that a search response (e.g., chain pull) led to a second stimulus that set the occasion for a target response (e.g., lever press) that was reinforced by a food pellet. In Experiment 1 training with longer search durations and intermittent (partial) reinforcement of searching (i.e. some trials had no target present) both led to more persistent search responding in extinction. The loss of search behavior in extinction was primarily dependent on the number of non-reinforced searches rather than time searching without reinforcement. In Experiments 2 and 3, delivery of non-contingent reinforcers during extinction increased search persistence provided they had also been presented during training. Thus, results with rats suggest that the persistence of working dog performance (or chained behavior generally) may be improved by training with partial reinforcement of searching and non-contingent reinforcement during both training and work (extinction). PMID:27306694

  4. Increasing the persistence of a heterogeneous behavior chain: Studies of extinction in a rat model of search behavior of working dogs.

    PubMed

    Thrailkill, Eric A; Kacelnik, Alex; Porritt, Fay; Bouton, Mark E

    2016-08-01

    Dogs trained to search for contraband perform a chain of behavior in which they first search for a target and then make a separate response that indicates to the trainer that they have found one. The dogs often conduct multiple searches without encountering a target and receiving the reinforcer (i.e., no contraband is present). Understanding extinction (i.e., the decline in work rate when reinforcers are no longer encountered) may assist in training dogs to work in conditions where targets are rare. We therefore trained rats on a search-target behavior chain modeled on the search behavior of working dogs. A discriminative stimulus signaled that a search response (e.g., chain pull) led to a second stimulus that set the occasion for a target response (e.g., lever press) that was reinforced by a food pellet. In Experiment 1 training with longer search durations and intermittent (partial) reinforcement of searching (i.e. some trials had no target present) both led to more persistent search responding in extinction. The loss of search behavior in extinction was primarily dependent on the number of non-reinforced searches rather than time searching without reinforcement. In Experiments 2 and 3, delivery of non-contingent reinforcers during extinction increased search persistence provided they had also been presented during training. Thus, results with rats suggest that the persistence of working dog performance (or chained behavior generally) may be improved by training with partial reinforcement of searching and non-contingent reinforcement during both training and work (extinction).

  5. Aerosol extinction measurements with CO2-lidar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hagard, Arne; Persson, Rolf

    1992-01-01

    With the aim to develop a model for infrared extinction due to aerosols in slant paths in the lower atmosphere we perform measurements with a CO2-lidar. Earlier measurements with a transmissometer along horizontal paths have been used to develop relations between aerosol extinction and meteorological parameters. With the lidar measurements we hope to develop corresponding relations for altitude profiles of the aerosol extinction in the infrared. An important application is prediction of detection range for infrared imaging systems.

  6. Late Pleistocene and Holocene mammal extinctions on continental Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faith, J. Tyler

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the cause of late Quaternary mammal extinctions is the subject of intense debate spanning the fields of archeology and paleontology. In the global context, the losses on continental Africa have received little attention and are poorly understood. This study aims to inspire new discussion of African extinctions through a review of the extinct species and the chronology and possible causes of those extinctions. There are at least 24 large mammal (> 5 kg) species known to have disappeared from continental Africa during the late Pleistocene or Holocene, indicating a much greater taxonomic breadth than previously recognized. Among the better sampled taxa, these losses are restricted to the terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene, between 13,000 and 6000 yrs ago. The African extinctions preferentially affected species that are grazers or prefer grasslands. Where good terrestrial paleoenvironmental records are present, extinctions are associated with changes in the availability, productivity, or structure of grassland habitats, suggesting that environmental changes played a decisive role in the losses. In the broader evolutionary context, these extinctions represent recent examples of selective taxonomic winnowing characterized by the loss of grassland specialists and the establishment of large mammal communities composed of more ecologically flexible taxa over the last million years. There is little reason to believe that humans played an important role in African extinctions.

  7. Asynchronous extinction of late Quaternary sloths on continents and islands

    PubMed Central

    Steadman, David W.; Martin, Paul S.; MacPhee, Ross D. E.; Jull, A. J. T.; McDonald, H. Gregory; Woods, Charles A.; Iturralde-Vinent, Manuel; Hodgins, Gregory W. L.

    2005-01-01

    Whatever the cause, it is extraordinary that dozens of genera of large mammals became extinct during the late Quaternary throughout the Western Hemisphere, including 90% of the genera of the xenarthran suborder Phyllophaga (sloths). Radiocarbon dates directly on dung, bones, or other tissue of extinct sloths place their “last appearance” datum at ≈11,000 radiocarbon years before present (yr BP) or slightly less in North America, ≈10,500 yr BP in South America, and ≈4,400 yr BP on West Indian islands. This asynchronous situation is not compatible with glacial–interglacial climate change forcing these extinctions, especially given the great elevational, latitudinal, and longitudinal variation of the sloth-bearing continental sites. Instead, the chronology of last appearance of extinct sloths, whether on continents or islands, more closely tracks the first arrival of people. PMID:16085711

  8. Asynchronous extinction of late Quaternary sloths on continents and islands.

    PubMed

    Steadman, David W; Martin, Paul S; MacPhee, Ross D E; Jull, A J T; McDonald, H Gregory; Woods, Charles A; Iturralde-Vinent, Manuel; Hodgins, Gregory W L

    2005-08-16

    Whatever the cause, it is extraordinary that dozens of genera of large mammals became extinct during the late Quaternary throughout the Western Hemisphere, including 90% of the genera of the xenarthran suborder Phyllophaga (sloths). Radiocarbon dates directly on dung, bones, or other tissue of extinct sloths place their "last appearance" datum at approximately 11,000 radiocarbon years before present (yr BP) or slightly less in North America, approximately 10,500 yr BP in South America, and approximately 4,400 yr BP on West Indian islands. This asynchronous situation is not compatible with glacial-interglacial climate change forcing these extinctions, especially given the great elevational, latitudinal, and longitudinal variation of the sloth-bearing continental sites. Instead, the chronology of last appearance of extinct sloths, whether on continents or islands, more closely tracks the first arrival of people.

  9. Thermal Transgressions and Phanerozoic Extinctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Worsley, T. R.; Kidder, D. L.

    2007-12-01

    A number of significant Phanerozoic extinctions are associated with marine transgressions that were probably driven by rapid ocean warming. The conditions associated with what we call thermal transgressions are extremely stressful to life on Earth. The Earth system setting associated with end-Permian extinction exemplifies an end-member case of our model. The conditions favoring extreme warmth and sea-level increases driven by thermal expansion are also conducive to changes in ocean circulation that foster widespread anoxia and sulfidic subsurface ocean waters. Equable climates are characterized by reduced wind shear and weak surface ocean circulation. Late Permian and Early Triassic thermohaline circulation differs considerably from today's world, with minimal polar sinking and intensified mid-latitude sinking that delivers sulfate from shallow evaporative areas to deeper water where it is reduced to sulfide. Reduced nutrient input to oceans from land at many of the extinction intervals results from diminished silicate weathering and weakened delivery of iron via eolian dust. The falloff in iron-bearing dust leads to minimal nitrate production, weakening food webs and rendering faunas and floras more susceptible to extinction when stressed. Factors such as heat, anoxia, ocean acidification, hypercapnia, and hydrogen sulfide poisoning would significantly affect these biotas. Intervals of tectonic quiescence set up preconditions favoring extinctions. Reductions in chemical silicate weathering lead to carbon dioxide buildup, oxygen drawdown, nutrient depletion, wind and ocean current abatement, long-term global warming, and ocean acidification. The effects of extinction triggers such as large igneous provinces, bolide impacts, and episodes of sudden methane release are more potent against the backdrop of our proposed preconditions. Extinctions that have characteristics we call for in the thermal transgressions include the Early Cambrian Sinsk event, as well as

  10. New chronology for the Middle Palaeolithic of the southern Caucasus suggests early demise of Neanderthals in this region.

    PubMed

    Pinhasi, R; Nioradze, M; Tushabramishvili, N; Lordkipanidze, D; Pleurdeau, D; Moncel, M-H; Adler, D S; Stringer, C; Higham, T F G

    2012-12-01

    Neanderthal populations of the southern and northern Caucasus became locally extinct during the Late Pleistocene. The timing of their extinction is key to our understanding of the relationship between Neanderthals and anatomically modern humans (AMH) in Eurasia. Recent re-dating of the end of the Middle Palaeolithic (MP) at Mezmaiskaya Cave, northern Caucasus, and Ortvale Klde, southern Caucasus, suggests that Neanderthals did not survive after 39 ka cal BP (thousands of years ago, calibrated before present). Here we extend the analysis and present a revised regional chronology for MP occupational phases in western Georgia, based on a series of model-based Bayesian analyses of radiocarbon dated bone samples obtained from the caves of Sakajia, Ortvala and Bronze Cave. This allows the establishment of probability intervals for the onset and end of each of the dated levels and for the end of the MP occupation at the three sites. Our results for Sakajia indicate that the end of the late Middle Palaeolithic (LMP) and start of the Upper Palaeolithic (UP) occurred between 40,200 and 37,140 cal BP. The end of the MP in the neighboring site of Ortvala occurred earlier at 43,540-41,420 cal BP (at 68.2% probability). The dating of MP layers from Bronze Cave confirms that it does not contain LMP phases. These results imply that Neanderthals did not survive in the southern Caucasus after 37 ka cal BP, supporting a model of Neanderthal extinction around the same period as reported for the northern Caucasus and other regions of Europe. Taken together with previous reports of the earliest UP phases in the region and the lack of archaeological evidence for an in situ transition, these results indicate that AMH arrived in the Caucasus a few millennia after the Neanderthal demise and that the two species probably did not interact.

  11. Microwave extinction characteristics of nanoparticle aggregates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Y. P.; Cheng, J. X.; Liu, X. X.; Wang, H. X.; Zhao, F. T.; Wen, W. W.

    2016-07-01

    Structure of nanoparticle aggregates plays an important role in microwave extinction capacity. The diffusion-limited aggregation model (DLA) for fractal growth is utilized to explore the possible structures of nanoparticle aggregates by computer simulation. Based on the discrete dipole approximation (DDA) method, the microwave extinction performance by different nano-carborundum aggregates is numerically analyzed. The effects of the particle quantity, original diameter, fractal structure, as well as orientation on microwave extinction are investigated, and also the extinction characteristics of aggregates are compared with the spherical nanoparticle in the same volume. Numerical results give out that proper aggregation of nanoparticle is beneficial to microwave extinction capacity, and the microwave extinction cross section by aggregated granules is better than that of the spherical solid one in the same volume.

  12. Lunar Rb-Sr chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nyquist, L. E.

    1977-01-01

    It has been established with the aid of Rb-Sr studies that lunar chronology consists of five episodes, including the formation of the moon approximately 4.6 AE ago (1 AE = 1000 million years), a period of intense bombardment by planetary debris resulting in the formation of the major lunar basins, the end of this period at 3.9-4.0 AE ago, a period of mare flooding extending from 3.9 to 3.2 AE ago, and a relatively quiescent period from 3.2 AE ago to the present. In addition, Rb-Sr-studies have provided valuable constraints on the geochemical evolution of the moon through the determination of the initial Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios which limit the Rb/Sr ratios of the source materials for lunar rocks. Attention is given to the characteristics of the Rb-Sr method, the analytical techniques, the ages of lunar mare basalts, the non-mare rocks, the studies conducted in connection with the various Apollo missions, the lunar cataclysm, lunar soils, and aspects of crustal contamination.

  13. A model predicting the evolution of ice particle size spectra and radiative properties of cirrus clouds. Part 2: Dependence of absorption and extinction on ice crystal morphology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mitchell, David L.; Arnott, W. Patrick

    1994-01-01

    This study builds upon the microphysical modeling described in Part 1 by deriving formulations for the extinction and absorption coefficients in terms of the size distribution parameters predicted from the micro-physical model. The optical depth and single scatter albedo of a cirrus cloud can then be determined, which, along with the asymmetry parameter, are the input parameters needed by cloud radiation models. Through the use of anomalous diffraction theory, analytical expressions were developed describing the absorption and extinction coefficients and the single scatter albedo as functions of size distribution parameters, ice crystal shapes (or habits), wavelength, and refractive index. The extinction coefficient was formulated in terms of the projected area of the size distribution, while the absorption coefficient was formulated in terms of both the projected area and mass of the size distribution. These properties were formulated as explicit functions of ice crystal geometry and were not based on an 'effective radius.' Based on simulations of the second cirrus case study described in Part 1, absorption coefficients predicted in the near infrared for hexagonal columns and rosettes were up to 47% and 71% lower, respectively, than absorption coefficients predicted by using equivalent area spheres. This resulted in single scatter albedos in the near-infrared that were considerably greater than those predicted by the equivalent area sphere method. Reflectances in this region should therefore be underestimated using the equivalent area sphere approach. Cloud optical depth was found to depend on ice crystal habit. When the simulated cirrus cloud contained only bullet rosettes, the optical depth was 142% greater than when the cloud contained only hexagonal columns. This increase produced a doubling in cloud albedo. In the near-infrared (IR), the single scatter albedo also exhibited a significant dependence on ice crystal habit. More research is needed on the

  14. Cumulative frequency distribution of past species extinctions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raup, D. M.

    1991-01-01

    Analysis of Sepkoski's compendium of the time ranges of 30,000+ taxa yields a mean duration of 28.4 ma for genera of fossil invertebrates. This converts to an average extinction rate of 3.5 percent per million years or about one percent every 286,000 years. Using survivorship techniques, these estimates can be converted to the species level, yielding a Phanerozoic average of one percent species extinction every 40,000 years. Variation in extinction rates through time is far greater than the null expectation of a homogeneous birth-death model and this reflects the well-known episodicity of extinction ranging from a few large mass extinctions to so-called background extinction. The observed variation in rates can be used to construct a cumulative frequency distribution of extinction intensity, and this distribution, in the form of a kill curve for species, shows the expected waiting times between extinction events of a given intensity. The kill curve is an average description of the extinction events of a given intensity. The kill curve is an average description of the extinction record and does not imply any cause or causes of extinction. The kill curve shows, among other things, that only about five percent of total species extinctions in the Phanerozoic were involved in the five largest mass extinctions. The other 95 percent were distributed among large and small events not normally called mass extinctions. As an exploration of the possibly absurd proposition that most past extinctions were produced by the effects of large-body impact, the kill curve for species was mapped on the comparable distribution for comet and asteroid impacts. The result is a curve predicting the species kill for a given size of impacting object (expressed as crater size). The results are reasonable in that impacts producing craters less than 30 km (diameter) cause negligible extinction but those producing craters 100-150 km (diameter) cause extinction of species in the range of 45

  15. Impact Chronology of the Moon — Results from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hiesinger, H.; van der Bogert, C. H.; Pasckert, J. H.; Plescia, J. B.; Robinson, M. S.

    2016-05-01

    We present absolute model ages (AMAs) based on crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements for Copernicus, Tycho, North Ray, Cone, and Autolycus craters to test and possibly improve the lunar cratering chronology.

  16. Is extinction forever?

    PubMed

    Smith-Patten, Brenda D; Bridge, Eli S; Crawford, Priscilla H C; Hough, Daniel J; Kelly, Jeffrey F; Patten, Michael A

    2015-05-01

    Mistrust of science has seeped into public perception of the most fundamental aspect of conservation-extinction. The term ought to be straightforward, and yet, there is a disconnect between scientific discussion and public views. This is not a mere semantic issue, rather one of communication. Within a population dynamics context, we say that a species went locally extinct, later to document its return. Conveying our findings matters, for when we use local extinction, an essentially nonsensical phrase, rather than extirpation, which is what is meant, then we contribute to, if not create outright, a problem for public understanding of conservation, particularly as local extinction is often shortened to extinction in media sources. The public that receives the message of our research void of context and modifiers comes away with the idea that extinction is not forever or, worse for conservation as a whole, that an extinction crisis has been invented.

  17. Is extinction forever?

    PubMed Central

    Bridge, Eli S.; Crawford, Priscilla H. C.; Hough, Daniel J.; Kelly, Jeffrey F.; Patten, Michael A.

    2015-01-01

    Mistrust of science has seeped into public perception of the most fundamental aspect of conservation—extinction. The term ought to be straightforward, and yet, there is a disconnect between scientific discussion and public views. This is not a mere semantic issue, rather one of communication. Within a population dynamics context, we say that a species went locally extinct, later to document its return. Conveying our findings matters, for when we use local extinction, an essentially nonsensical phrase, rather than extirpation, which is what is meant, then we contribute to, if not create outright, a problem for public understanding of conservation, particularly as local extinction is often shortened to extinction in media sources. The public that receives the message of our research void of context and modifiers comes away with the idea that extinction is not forever or, worse for conservation as a whole, that an extinction crisis has been invented. PMID:25711479

  18. An A. S. Neill/Summerhill Chronology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Matthias, William

    1980-01-01

    This chronology of the life of Alexander Sutherland Neill, headmaster of Summerhill School, details each year of his life from 1883 to 1973. The author of 21 books, Neill did not espouse a return to "basics" in education. (JN)

  19. Bimodal extinction without cross-modal extinction.

    PubMed Central

    Inhoff, A W; Rafal, R D; Posner, M J

    1992-01-01

    Three patients with unilateral neurological injury were clinically examined. All showed consistent unilateral extinction in the tactile and visual modalities on simultaneous intramodal stimulation. There was virtually no evidence for cross-modal extinction, however, so that contralateral stimulation of one modality would have extinguished perception of ipsilateral stimuli in the other modality. It is concluded that the attentional system controlling the encoding of tactile and visual stimuli is not unified across the two sensory domains. PMID:1548496

  20. Effects of Extinction Treatments on the Reduction of Conditioned Responding and Conditioned Hyperarousal in a Rabbit Model of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD)

    PubMed Central

    Burhans, Lauren B.; Smith-Bell, Carrie A.; Schreurs, Bernard G.

    2015-01-01

    We have previously characterized a model of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), based on classical conditioning of the rabbit nictitating membrane response (NMR), that focuses on 2 key PTSD-like features: conditioned responses to trauma-associated cues and hyperarousal. In addition to the development of conditioned NMRs (CRs) to a tone conditioned stimulus (CS) associated with a periorbital shock unconditioned stimulus (US), we have observed that rabbits also exhibit a conditioning-specific reflex modification (CRM) of the NMR that manifests as an exaggerated and more complex reflexive NMR to presentations of the US by itself, particularly to intensities that elicited little response prior to conditioning. Previous work has demonstrated that unpaired presentations of the CS and US are successful at extinguishing CRs and CRM simultaneously, even when a significantly weakened version of the US is utilized. In the current study, additional extinction treatments were tested, including continued pairings of the CS with a weakened US and exposure to the training context alone, and these treatments were contrasted with the effects of unpaired extinction with a weakened US and remaining in home cages with no further treatment. Results showed that continued pairings only slightly decreased CRs and CRM, while context exposure had no effect on CRs and marginal effects on reducing CRM. Unpaired extinction was still the most effective treatment for reducing both. Findings are discussed in terms of applications to cognitive–behavioral therapies for treatment of PTSD, such as incorporating mild, innately stressful stimuli into virtual reality therapy. PMID:26348715

  1. Effects of extinction treatments on the reduction of conditioned responding and conditioned hyperarousal in a rabbit model of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

    PubMed

    Burhans, Lauren B; Smith-Bell, Carrie A; Schreurs, Bernard G

    2015-10-01

    We have previously characterized a model of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), based on classical conditioning of the rabbit nictitating membrane response (NMR), that focuses on 2 key PTSD-like features: conditioned responses to trauma-associated cues and hyperarousal. In addition to the development of conditioned NMRs (CRs) to a tone conditioned stimulus (CS) associated with a periorbital shock unconditioned stimulus (US), we have observed that rabbits also exhibit a conditioning-specific reflex modification (CRM) of the NMR that manifests as an exaggerated and more complex reflexive NMR to presentations of the US by itself, particularly to intensities that elicited little response prior to conditioning. Previous work has demonstrated that unpaired presentations of the CS and US are successful at extinguishing CRs and CRM simultaneously, even when a significantly weakened version of the US is utilized. In the current study, additional extinction treatments were tested, including continued pairings of the CS with a weakened US and exposure to the training context alone, and these treatments were contrasted with the effects of unpaired extinction with a weakened US and remaining in home cages with no further treatment. Results showed that continued pairings only slightly decreased CRs and CRM, while context exposure had no effect on CRs and marginal effects on reducing CRM. Unpaired extinction was still the most effective treatment for reducing both. Findings are discussed in terms of applications to cognitive-behavioral therapies for treatment of PTSD, such as incorporating mild, innately stressful stimuli into virtual reality therapy.

  2. Extinction memory in the crab Chasmagnathus: recovery protocols and effects of multi-trial extinction training.

    PubMed

    Hepp, Yanil; Pérez-Cuesta, Luis María; Maldonado, Héctor; Pedreira, María Eugenia

    2010-05-01

    A decline in the frequency or intensity of a conditioned behavior following the withdrawal of the reinforcement is called experimental extinction. However, the experimental manipulation necessary to trigger memory reconsolidation or extinction is to expose the animal to the conditioned stimulus in the absence of reinforcement. Recovery protocols were used to reveal which of these two processes was developed. By using the crab contextual memory model (a visual danger stimulus associated with the training context), we investigated the dynamics of extinction memory in Chasmagnathus. Here, we reveal the presence of three recovery protocols that restore the original memory: the old memory comes back 4 days after the extinction training, or when a weak training is administered later, or once the VDS is presented in a novel context 24 h after the extinction session. Another objective was to evaluate whether the administration of multi-trial extinction training could trigger an extinction memory in Chasmagnathus. The results evince that the extinction memory appears only when the total re-exposure time is around 90 min independently of the number of trials employed to accumulate it. Thus, it is feasible that the mechanisms described for the case of the extinction memory acquired through a single training trial are valid for multi-trial extinction protocols. Finally, these results are in agreement with those reports obtained with models phylogenetically far apart from the crab. Behind this attempt is the idea that in the domain of studies on memory, some principles of behavior organization and basic mechanisms have universal validity.

  3. Glacial and marine chronology of Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strom, Robert G.; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Johnson, Natasha; Knight, Christine

    1991-01-01

    A hydrological model involving episodic oceans and ice sheets on Mars has been presented by Baker, et al. One of the main uncertainties concerning this model is the age and correlation of these events. Even more uncertain are their absolute ages. However, based on stratigraphic and cratering evidence, the most recent occurrence of these events was relatively late in Martian history. The cratering record on Mars can be divided into three general periods: (1) the period of late heavy bombardment; (2) a transition period at the end of late heavy bombardment; and (3) the post heavy bombardment era. The crater size/frequency distribution represented by the period of late heavy bombardment is characterized by a complex curve with a differential-2 slope (cumulative-1) at diameters less than about 50 km diameter, while the post heavy bombardment size distribution has a differential-3 slope (cumulative-2) over the same diameter range. An R plot is presented of the size/freqency distribution of ejecta blanket craters on the Argyre esker plains and similar craters in Hellas. The relative chronology is summarized of oceans, ice sheets, and other major events in Martian history.

  4. Translation of Associative Learning Models into Extinction Reminders Delivered via Mobile Phones During Cue Exposure Interventions for Substance Use

    PubMed Central

    Rosenthal, M. Zachary; Kutlu, Munir G.

    2014-01-01

    Despite experimental findings and some treatment research supporting the use of cues as a means to induce and extinguish cravings, interventions using cue exposure have not been well integrated into contemporary substance abuse treatments. A primary problem with exposure-based interventions for addiction is that after learning not to use substances in the presence of addiction cues inside the clinic (i.e., extinction), stimuli in the naturalistic setting outside the clinic may continue to elicit craving, drug use, or other maladaptive conditioned responses. For exposure-based substance use interventions to be efficacious, new approaches are needed that can prevent relapse by directly generalizing learning from the therapeutic setting into naturalistic settings associated with a high-risk for relapse. Basic research suggests that extinction reminders (ERs) can be paired with the context of learning new and more adaptive conditioned responses to substance abuse cues in exposure therapies for addiction. Using mobile phones and automated dialing and data collection software, ERs can be delivered in everyday high-risk settings to inhibit conditioned responses to substance use-related stimuli. In this review, we describe how associative learning mechanisms (e.g., conditioned inhibition) can inform how ERs are conceptualized, learned, and implemented to prevent substance use when delivered via mobile phones. This approach, exposure with portable reminders of extinction, is introduced as an adjunctive intervention that uses brief automated ERs between clinic visits when individuals are in high-risk settings for drug use. PMID:25134055

  5. Use of equivalent spheres to model the relation between radar reflectivity and optical extinction of ice cloud particles.

    PubMed

    Donovan, David Patrick; Quante, Markus; Schlimme, Ingo; Macke, Andreas

    2004-09-01

    The effect of ice crystal size and shape on the relation between radar reflectivity and optical extinction is examined. Discrete-dipole approximation calculations of 95-GHz radar reflectivity and ray-tracing calculations are applied to ice crystals of various habits and sizes. Ray tracing was used primarily to calculate optical extinction and to provide approximate information on the lidar backscatter cross section. The results of the combined calculations are compared with Mie calculations applied to collections of different types of equivalent spheres. Various equivalent sphere formulations are considered, including equivalent radar-lidar spheres; equivalent maximum dimension spheres; equivalent area spheres, and equivalent volume and equivalent effective radius spheres. Marked differences are found with respect to the accuracy of different formulations, and certain types of equivalent spheres can be used for useful prediction of both the radar reflectivity at 95 GHz and the optical extinction (but not lidar backscatter cross section) over a wide range of particle sizes. The implications of these results on combined lidar-radar ice cloud remote sensing are discussed.

  6. Reproducibility and utility of dune luminescence chronologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leighton, Carly L.; Thomas, David S. G.; Bailey, Richard M.

    2014-02-01

    Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of dune deposits has increasingly been used as a tool to investigate the response of aeolian systems to environmental change. Amalgamation of individual dune accumulation chronologies has been employed in order to distinguish regional from local geomorphic responses to change. However, advances in dating have produced chronologies of increasing complexity. In particular, questions regarding the interpretation of dune ages have been raised, including over the most appropriate method to evaluate the significance of suites of OSL ages when local 'noisy' and discontinuous records are combined. In this paper, these issues are reviewed and the reproducibility of dune chronologies is assessed. OSL ages from two cores sampled from the same dune in the northeast Rub' al Khali, United Arab Emirates, are presented and compared, alongside an analysis of previously published dune ages dated to within the last 30 ka. Distinct periods of aeolian activity and preservation are identified, which can be tied to regional climatic and environmental changes. This case study is used to address fundamental questions that are persistently asked of dune dating studies, including the appropriate spatial scale over which to infer environmental and climatic change based on dune chronologies, whether chronological hiatuses can be interpreted, how to most appropriately combine and display datasets, and the relationship between geomorphic and palaeoclimatic signals. Chronological profiles reflect localised responses to environmental variability and climatic forcing, and amalgamation of datasets, with consideration of sampling resolution, is required; otherwise local factors are always likely to dominate. Using net accumulation rates to display ages may provide an informative approach of analysing and presenting dune OSL chronologies less susceptible to biases resulting from insufficient sampling resolution.

  7. Chronologic versus Biologic Aging of the Human Choroid

    PubMed Central

    May, Christian Albrecht

    2013-01-01

    Several aspects of chronologic and biologic aging in the human choroid are reviewed from the literature. They often reveal methodological problems for age-dependent changes of the following parameters: choroidal thickness, choroidal pigmentation, choroidal vasculature and blood flow, and choroidal innervation. On reinterpreting some data of studies concerning Bruch's membrane, changes observed at different age points seem more likely to be nonlinear. Concluding from the data presented so far, chronologic aging should not be used as a factor for physiological changes in the human choroid. Longitudinal study designs are necessary to further establish the impact of age. Meanwhile, a more biologic oriented model of aging processes in the choroid should be established, including specified conditions (e.g., light exposure and refractory state). This would help to define more individual strategies for prevention and early stages of a certain defined disease. PMID:24453840

  8. Frost-ring chronologies as dendroclimatic proxies of boreal environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Payette, Serge; Delwaide, Ann; Simard, Martin

    2010-01-01

    Frost rings are formed in tree stems when growing-season frosts affect immature wood cells, producing collapsed cells within annual tree rings. Open boreal forests are most susceptible to record growing-season frost because they lack the greenhouse effect commonly observed in closed forests. Here we present a novel method to construct regional frost-ring chronologies in lichen-black spruce woodlands of the boreal forest zone. Because the ability of trees to form frost rings depends on several factors (including bark thickness and ring width), we used two models to produce a Frost Composite Index based on a frost susceptibility window of cambial age <30 years. The frost-ring chronology showed alternating periods of high and low frost activity that were highly consistent within and among sites. Reconstruction of growing-season frost activity may be used as dendroclimatic proxies of climate variability and may give insights into future risks of frost damage in a warming climate.

  9. Gradual extinction reduces reinstatement

    PubMed Central

    Shiban, Youssef; Wittmann, Jasmin; Weißinger, Mara; Mühlberger, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    The current study investigated whether gradually reducing the frequency of aversive stimuli during extinction can prevent the return of fear. Thirty-one participants of a three-stage procedure (acquisition, extinction and a reinstatement test on day 2) were randomly assigned to a standard extinction (SE) and gradual extinction (GE) procedure. The two groups differed only in the extinction procedure. While the SE group ran through a regular extinction process without any negative events, the frequency of the aversive stimuli during the extinction phase was gradually reduced for the GE group. The unconditioned stimulus (US) was an air blast (5 bar, 10 ms). A spider and a scorpion were used as conditioned stimuli (CS). The outcome variables were contingency ratings and physiological measures (skin conductance response, SCR and startle response). There were no differences found between the two groups for the acquisition and extinction phases concerning contingency ratings, SCR, or startle response. GE compared to SE significantly reduced the return of fear in the reinstatement test for the startle response but not for SCR or contingency ratings. This study was successful in translating the findings in rodent to humans. The results suggest that the GE process is suitable for increasing the efficacy of fear extinction. PMID:26441581

  10. Mass extinction: a commentary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raup, D. M.

    1987-01-01

    Four neocatastrophist claims about mass extinction are currently being debated; they are that: 1, the late Cretaceous mass extinction was caused by large body impact; 2, as many as five other major extinctions were caused by impact; 3, the timing of extinction events since the Permian is uniformly periodic; and 4, the ages of impact craters on Earth are also periodic and in phase with the extinctions. Although strongly interconnected the four claims are independent in the sense that none depends on the others. Evidence for a link between impact and extinction is strong but still needs more confirmation through bed-by-bed and laboratory studies. An important area for future research is the question of whether extinction is a continuous process, with the rate increasing at times of mass extinctions, or whether it is episodic at all scales. If the latter is shown to be generally true, then species are at risk of extinction only rarely during their existence and catastrophism, in the sense of isolated events of extreme stress, is indicated. This is line of reasoning can only be considered an hypothesis for testing. In a larger context, paleontologists may benefit from a research strategy that looks to known Solar System and Galactic phenomena for predictions about environmental effects on earth. The recent success in the recognition of Milankovitch Cycles in the late Pleistocene record is an example of the potential of this research area.

  11. Construction of reliable radiocarbon-based chronologies for speleothems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lechleitner, Franziska; Fohlmeister, Jens; McIntyre, Cameron; Baldini, Lisa M.; Jamieson, Robert A.; Hercman, Helena; Gasiorowski, Michal; Pawlak, Jacek; Stefaniak, Krzysztof; Socha, Pawel; Eglinton, Timothy I.; Baldini, James U. L.

    2016-04-01

    Speleothems have become one of the most widely applied archives for paleoclimate research. One of their key advantages is their amenability for U-series dating, often producing excellent high precision chronologies. However, stalagmites with high detrital Th or very low U concentrations are problematic to date using U-series, and sometimes need to be discarded from further paleoclimate analysis. Radiocarbon chronologies could present an alternative for stalagmites that cannot be dated using U-series, if offsets from the "dead carbon fraction" (DCF) can be resolved. The DCF is a variable reservoir effect introduced by the addition of 14C-dead carbon from host rock dissolution and soil organic matter. We present a novel age modeling technique that provides accurate 14C-based chronologies for stalagmites. As this technique focuses on the long-term decay pattern of 14C, it is only applicable on stalagmites that show no secular variability in their 14C-depth profiles, but is independent of short-term DCF variations. In order to determine whether a stalagmite is suitable for this method without direct knowledge of long-term trends in the DCF, we highlight how other geochemical proxies (δ13C, Mg/Ca) can provide additional information on changes in karst hydrology, soil conditions, and climate that would affect DCF. We apply our model on a previously published U-Th dated stalagmite 14C dataset from Heshang Cave, China with excellent results, followed by a previously 'undateable' stalagmite from southern Poland.

  12. Catastrophic extinctions follow deforestation in Singapore.

    PubMed

    Brook, Barry W; Sodhi, Navjot S; Ng, Peter K L

    2003-07-24

    The looming mass extinction of biodiversity in the humid tropics is a major concern for the future, yet most reports of extinctions in these regions are anecdotal or conjectural, with a scarcity of robust, broad-based empirical data. Here we report on local extinctions among a wide range of terrestrial and freshwater taxa from Singapore (540 km2) in relation to habitat loss exceeding 95% over 183 years. Substantial rates of documented and inferred extinctions were found, especially for forest specialists, with the greatest proportion of extinct taxa (34-87%) in butterflies, fish, birds and mammals. Observed extinctions were generally fewer, but inferred losses often higher, in vascular plants, phasmids, decapods, amphibians and reptiles (5-80%). Forest reserves comprising only 0.25% of Singapore's area now harbour over 50% of the residual native biodiversity. Extrapolations of the observed and inferred local extinction data, using a calibrated species-area model, imply that the current unprecedented rate of habitat destruction in Southeast Asia will result in the loss of 13-42% of regional populations over the next century, at least half of which will represent global species extinctions.

  13. Repeated valproate treatment facilitates fear extinction under specific stimulus conditions.

    PubMed

    Heinrichs, Stephen C; Leite-Morris, Kimberly A; Rasmusson, Ann M; Kaplan, Gary B

    2013-09-27

    Single dose treatment with histone deacetylase inhibitor (HDACi) agents has been shown to enhance extinction learning in rodent models under certain conditions. The present novel studies were designed to examine the effects of repeated HDACi treatment, with valproate or sodium butyrate, on the extinction of conditioned fear. In Experiments 1 and 2, short duration CS exposure (30s) in combination with vehicle administration progressively attenuated conditioned fear responses over 40 or more sessions. This effective extinction training was not augmented by HDACi treatments. In Experiment 3, we used a long duration CS exposure (120 s) to weaken extinction training. With these extinction parameters, repeated valproate treatment substantially facilitated the acquisition and retention of fear extinction. Results of this study extend previous work suggesting that HDACi's have utility in augmenting the efficiency of fear extinction, although their apparent benefits are critically dependent upon specific parameters of extinction training.

  14. Surface temperature dataset for North America obtained by application of optimal interpolation algorithm merging tree-ring chronologies and climate model output

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xin; Xing, Pei; Luo, Yong; Nie, Suping; Zhao, Zongci; Huang, Jianbin; Wang, Shaowu; Tian, Qinhua

    2015-10-01

    A new dataset of surface temperature over North America has been constructed by merging climate model results and empirical tree-ring data through the application of an optimal interpolation algorithm. Errors of both the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) simulation and the tree-ring reconstruction were considered to optimize the combination of the two elements. Variance matching was used to reconstruct the surface temperature series. The model simulation provided the background field, and the error covariance matrix was estimated statistically using samples from the simulation results with a running 31-year window for each grid. Thus, the merging process could continue with a time-varying gain matrix. This merging method (MM) was tested using two types of experiment, and the results indicated that the standard deviation of errors was about 0.4 °C lower than the tree-ring reconstructions and about 0.5 °C lower than the model simulation. Because of internal variabilities and uncertainties in the external forcing data, the simulated decadal warm-cool periods were readjusted by the MM such that the decadal variability was more reliable (e.g., the 1940-1960s cooling). During the two centuries (1601-1800 AD) of the preindustrial period, the MM results revealed a compromised spatial pattern of the linear trend of surface temperature, which is in accordance with the phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Compared with pure CCSM4 simulations, it was demonstrated that the MM brought a significant improvement to the decadal variability of the gridded temperature via the merging of temperature-sensitive tree-ring records.

  15. A NEW CHRONOLOGY FOR THE MOON AND MERCURY

    SciTech Connect

    Marchi, Simone; Mottola, Stefano; Cremonese, Gabriele; Martellato, Elena; Massironi, Matteo

    2009-06-15

    In this paper, we present a new method for dating the surface of the Moon, obtained by modeling the incoming flux of impactors and converting it into a size distribution of resulting craters. We compare the results from this model with the standard chronology for the Moon showing their similarities and discrepancies. In particular, we find indications of a nonconstant impactor flux in the last 500 Myr and also discuss the implications of our findings for the Late Heavy Bombardment hypothesis. We also show the potential of our model for accurate dating of other inner solar system bodies, by applying it to Mercury.

  16. The "terminal Triassic catastrophic extinction event" in perspective: a review of carboniferous through Early Jurassic terrestrial vertebrate extinction patterns

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Weems, R.E.

    1992-01-01

    A catastrophic terminal Triassic extinction event among terrestrial vertebrates is not supported by available evidence. The current model for such an extinction is based on at least eight weak or untenable assumptions: (1) a terminal Triassic extinction-inducing asteroid impact occurred, (2) a terminal Triassic synchronous mass extinction of terrestrial vertebrates occurred, (3) a concurrent terminal Triassic marine extinction occurred, (4) all terrestrial vertebrate families have similar diversities and ecologies, (5) changes in familial diversity can be gauged accurately from the known fossil record, (6) extinction of families can be compared through time without normalizing for changes in familial diversity through time, (7) extinction rates can be compared without normalizing for differing lengths of geologic stages, and (8) catastrophic mass extinctions do not select for small size. These assumptions have resulted in unsupportable and (or) erroneous conclusions. Carboniferous through Early Jurassic terrestrial vertebrate families mostly have evolution and extinction patterns unlike the vertebrate evolution and extinction patterns during the terminal Cretaceous event. Only the Serpukhovian (mid Carboniferous) extinction event shows strong analogy to the terminal Cretaceous event. Available data suggest no terminal Triassic extinction anomaly, but rather a prolonged and nearly steady decline in the global terrestrial vertebrate extinction rate throughout the Triassic and earliest Jurassic. ?? 1992.

  17. The Cretaceous/Tertiary Extinction Controversy Reconsidered.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCartney, Kevin; Nienstedt, Jeffrey

    1986-01-01

    Reviews varying positions taken in the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/Y) extinction controversy. Analyzes and contests the meteoritic impact theory known as the Alvarez Model. Presents an alternative working hypothesis explaining the K/T transition. (ML)

  18. Extinction and the fossil record

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, ,. J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1994-01-01

    The author examines evidence of mass extinctions in the fossil record and searches for reasons for such large extinctions. Five major mass extinctions eliminated at least 40 percent of animal genera in the oceans and from 65 to 95 percent of ocean species. Questions include the occurrence of gradual or catastrophic extinctions, causes, environment, the capacity of a perturbation to cause extinctions each time it happens, and the possibility and identification of complex events leading to a mass extinction.

  19. Resolving the chronology of the South African landscape through joint inverse modelling of AFT and apatite (U-Th)/He data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wildman, Mark; Brown, Roderick; Beucher, Romain; Persano, Cristina; Stuart, Finlay

    2013-04-01

    Application of Low temperature thermochronometry (LTT) is a powerful method of constraining thermal history information on samples as they pass through isotherms in the upper crust. Inverse modelling of LTT data generates thermal history information which can then be correlated with independent datasets to infer geological processes that are responsible for producing the observed thermal history held in the thermochronometry record. A critical consideration when choosing which LTT method to use are the closure temperatures associated with each system. In order to generate more complete and robust thermal histories a single sample can be analysed using multiple low temperature thermochronometers that are sensitive over different but complimentary temperature ranges. The main focus of LTT work in South Africa has been on apatite fission track (AFT) analysis which is a world renowned method of constraining thermal history information between c. 60 and 110±10°C. The general conclusions that have been drawn from the South African AFT dataset is that the present day regional topography represents an eroded remnant of an elevated interior that experienced a significant uplift event with km-scale erosion in the Cretaceous following the break-up of Gondwana [1]. The exact nature of Cretaceous uplift and erosion varies both spatially and temporally, especially in south western Africa where at least two distinct denudation events are recorded at c. 130Ma and 90 Ma [2]. There are, however, alternative views suggesting significant epeirogenic-style uplift and subsequent erosion throughout the Cenozoic [3]. A key aspect of this debate which is yet to be fully resolved is the influence of mantle dynamics on the evolution of the overlying topography. To further investigate the timing and amount of Cenozoic uplift and erosion and to what degree this can be ascribed to dynamic topography, efforts have been made to complement the existing AFT record with Apatite (U-Th)/He analysis

  20. A high-precision chronological model for the decorated Upper Paleolithic cave of Chauvet-Pont d'Arc, Ardèche, France.

    PubMed

    Quiles, Anita; Valladas, Hélène; Bocherens, Hervé; Delqué-Količ, Emmanuelle; Kaltnecker, Evelyne; van der Plicht, Johannes; Delannoy, Jean-Jacques; Feruglio, Valérie; Fritz, Carole; Monney, Julien; Philippe, Michel; Tosello, Gilles; Clottes, Jean; Geneste, Jean-Michel

    2016-04-26

    Radiocarbon dates for the ancient drawings in the Chauvet-Pont d'Arc Cave revealed ages much older than expected. These early ages and nature of this Paleolithic art make this United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) site indisputably unique. A large, multidisciplinary dating program has recently mapped the anthropological evolution associated with the cave. More than 350 dates (by (14)C, U-Th, TL and (36)Cl) were obtained over the last 15 y. They include 259 radiocarbon dates, mainly related to the rock art and human activity in the cave. We present here more than 80 previously unpublished dates. All of the dates were integrated into a high-precision Bayesian model based on archaeological evidence to securely reconstruct the complete history of the Chauvet-Pont d'Arc Cave on an absolute timescale. It shows that there were two distinct periods of human activity in the cave, one from 37 to 33,500 y ago, and the other from 31 to 28,000 y ago. Cave bears also took refuge in the cave until 33,000 y ago.

  1. A high-precision chronological model for the decorated Upper Paleolithic cave of Chauvet-Pont d'Arc, Ardèche, France.

    PubMed

    Quiles, Anita; Valladas, Hélène; Bocherens, Hervé; Delqué-Količ, Emmanuelle; Kaltnecker, Evelyne; van der Plicht, Johannes; Delannoy, Jean-Jacques; Feruglio, Valérie; Fritz, Carole; Monney, Julien; Philippe, Michel; Tosello, Gilles; Clottes, Jean; Geneste, Jean-Michel

    2016-04-26

    Radiocarbon dates for the ancient drawings in the Chauvet-Pont d'Arc Cave revealed ages much older than expected. These early ages and nature of this Paleolithic art make this United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) site indisputably unique. A large, multidisciplinary dating program has recently mapped the anthropological evolution associated with the cave. More than 350 dates (by (14)C, U-Th, TL and (36)Cl) were obtained over the last 15 y. They include 259 radiocarbon dates, mainly related to the rock art and human activity in the cave. We present here more than 80 previously unpublished dates. All of the dates were integrated into a high-precision Bayesian model based on archaeological evidence to securely reconstruct the complete history of the Chauvet-Pont d'Arc Cave on an absolute timescale. It shows that there were two distinct periods of human activity in the cave, one from 37 to 33,500 y ago, and the other from 31 to 28,000 y ago. Cave bears also took refuge in the cave until 33,000 y ago. PMID:27071106

  2. A high-precision chronological model for the decorated Upper Paleolithic cave of Chauvet-Pont d’Arc, Ardèche, France

    PubMed Central

    Quiles, Anita; Valladas, Hélène; Bocherens, Hervé; Delqué-Količ, Emmanuelle; Kaltnecker, Evelyne; van der Plicht, Johannes; Delannoy, Jean-Jacques; Feruglio, Valérie; Fritz, Carole; Monney, Julien; Philippe, Michel; Tosello, Gilles; Clottes, Jean; Geneste, Jean-Michel

    2016-01-01

    Radiocarbon dates for the ancient drawings in the Chauvet-Pont d’Arc Cave revealed ages much older than expected. These early ages and nature of this Paleolithic art make this United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) site indisputably unique. A large, multidisciplinary dating program has recently mapped the anthropological evolution associated with the cave. More than 350 dates (by 14C, U-Th, TL and 36Cl) were obtained over the last 15 y. They include 259 radiocarbon dates, mainly related to the rock art and human activity in the cave. We present here more than 80 previously unpublished dates. All of the dates were integrated into a high-precision Bayesian model based on archaeological evidence to securely reconstruct the complete history of the Chauvet-Pont d’Arc Cave on an absolute timescale. It shows that there were two distinct periods of human activity in the cave, one from 37 to 33,500 y ago, and the other from 31 to 28,000 y ago. Cave bears also took refuge in the cave until 33,000 y ago. PMID:27071106

  3. Prediction of extinction and reignition in nonpremixed turbulent flames using a flamelet/progress variable model. 1. A priori study and presumed PDF closure

    SciTech Connect

    Ihme, Matthias; Pitsch, Heinz

    2008-10-15

    Previously conducted studies of the flamelet/progress variable model for the prediction of nonpremixed turbulent combustion processes identified two areas for model improvements: the modeling of the presumed probability density function (PDF) for the reaction progress parameter and the consideration of unsteady effects [Ihme et al., Proc. Combust. Inst. 30 (2005) 793]. These effects are of particular importance during local flame extinction and subsequent reignition. Here, the models for the presumed PDFs for conserved and reactive scalars are re-examined and a statistically most likely distribution (SMLD) is employed and tested in a priori studies using direct numerical simulation (DNS) data and experimental results from the Sandia flame series. In the first part of the paper, the SMLD model is employed for a reactive scalar distribution. Modeling aspects of the a priori PDF, accounting for the bias in composition space, are discussed. The convergence of the SMLD with increasing number of enforced moments is demonstrated. It is concluded that information about more than two moments is beneficial to accurately represent the reactive scalar distribution in turbulent flames with strong extinction and reignition. In addition to the reactive scalar analysis, the potential of the SMLD for the representation of conserved scalar distributions is also analyzed. In the a priori study using DNS data it is found that the conventionally employed beta distribution provides a better representation for the scalar distribution. This is attributed to the fact that the beta-PDF implicitly enforces higher moment information that is in excellent agreement with the DNS data. However, the SMLD outperforms the beta distribution in free shear flow applications, which are typically characterized by strongly skewed scalar distributions, in the case where higher moment information can be enforced. (author)

  4. Astronautics and aeronautics, 1976. A chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ritchie, E. H.

    1984-01-01

    A chronology of events concerning astronautics and aeronautics for the year 1976 is presented. Some of the many and varied topics include the aerospace industry, planetary exploration, space transportation system, defense department programs, politics, and aerospace medicine. The entries are organized by the month and presented in a news release format.

  5. Astronautics and aeronautics, 1978: A chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Janson, Bette R.

    1986-01-01

    This is the 18th in a series of annual chronologies of significant events in the fields of astronautics and aeronautics. Events covered are international as well as national and political as well as scientific and technical. This series is a reference work for historians, NASA personnel, government agencies, congressional staffs, and the media.

  6. Astronautics and aeronautics, 1985: A chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Janson, Bette R.

    1988-01-01

    This book is part of a series of annual chronologies of significant events in the fields of astronautics and aeronautics. Events covered are international as well as national, in political as well as scientific and technical areas. This series is an important reference work used by historians, NASA personnel, government agencies, and congressional staffs, as well as the media.

  7. Statistical inference for extinction rates based on last sightings.

    PubMed

    Nakamura, Miguel; Del Monte-Luna, Pablo; Lluch-Belda, Daniel; Lluch-Cota, Salvador E

    2013-09-21

    Rates of extinction can be estimated from sighting records and are assumed to be implicitly constant by many data analysis methods. However, historical sightings are scarce. Frequently, the only information available for inferring extinction is the date of the last sighting. In this study, we developed a probabilistic model and a corresponding statistical inference procedure based on last sightings. We applied this procedure to data on recent marine extirpations and extinctions, seeking to test the null hypothesis of a constant extinction rate. We found that over the past 500 years extirpations in the ocean have been increasing but at an uncertain rate, whereas a constant rate of global marine extinctions is statistically plausible. The small sample sizes of marine extinction records generate such high uncertainty that different combinations of model inputs can yield different outputs that fit the observed data equally well. Thus, current marine extinction trends may be idiosyncratic.

  8. Traumatic stress causes distinctive effects on fear circuit catecholamines and the fear extinction profile in a rodent model of posttraumatic stress disorder.

    PubMed

    Lin, Chen-Cheng; Tung, Che-Se; Lin, Pin-Hsuan; Huang, Chuen-Lin; Liu, Yia-Ping

    2016-09-01

    Central catecholamines regulate fear memory across the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), amygdala (AMYG), and hippocampus (HPC). However, inadequate evidence exists to address the relationships among these fear circuit areas in terms of the fear symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). By examining the behavioral profile in a Pavlovian fear conditioning paradigm together with tissue/efflux levels of dopamine (DA) and norepinephrine (NE) and their reuptake abilities across the fear circuit areas in rats that experienced single prolonged stress (SPS, a rodent model of PTSD), we demonstrated that SPS-impaired extinction retrieval was concomitant with the changes of central DA/NE in a dissociable manner. For tissue levels, diminished DA and increased NE were both observed in the mPFC and AMYG. DA efflux and synaptosomal DA transporter were consistently reduced in the AMYG/vHPC, whereas SPS reduced NE efflux in the infralimbic cortex and synaptosomal NE transporter in the mPFC. Furthermore, a lower expression of synaptosomal VMAT2 was observed in the mPFC, AMYG, and vHPC after SPS. Finally, negative correlations were observed between retrieval freezing and DA in the mPFC/AMYG; nevertheless, the phenomena became invalid after SPS. Our results suggest that central catecholamines are crucially involved in the retrieval of fear extinction in which DA and NE play distinctive roles across the fear circuit areas.

  9. Calibration of NIRS-measured hemodynamics with best-matched hemoglobin extinction coefficients and group statics on human-blood-model data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Ting; Zhao, Yue; Sun, Yunlong; Li, Kai; Li, Wenjie; Zhang, Chi; Liu, Junpeng

    2015-03-01

    Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) has been extensively developed for in-vivo measurements of tissue vascular oxygenation, breast tumor detection, and functional brain imaging, by groups of physicists, biomedical engineers, and mathematicians. To quantify concentrations of oxyhemoglobin, deoxyhemoglobin, and total hemoglobin (hemodynamics), extinction coefficients of hemoglobin (ɛ) have to be employed. However, it is still controversial what ɛ values should be used and relatively what calibration should be done in NIRS quantification to achieve the highest precision, although that the differences in ɛ values among published data resulted in ~20% variation in quantification of hemoglobin concentration is reported based a single human blood test. We collected 12 blood samples from 12 healthy people, and with each blood sample performed blood tissue model experiments. 4 teams of published extinction value widely used in NIRS fields were employed respectively in our quantification. Calibrations based least square analysis and regression between real and estimated hemodynamics for 12 subjects were performed with each team of ɛ values respectively. We found that: Moaveni's ɛ values contributed to highest accuracy; Regression method produced quite effective calibration, and when it combined with Moaveni's ɛ values, the calibration reduced the std/mean of estimation by two orders of magnitude. Thus Moaveni's ɛ values are most recommended to use in NIRS quantification, especially with our calibration matrix based on regression analysis with a group of subjects' blood sample.

  10. Extinction in a hyperdiverse endemic Hawaiian land snail family and implications for the underestimation of invertebrate extinction.

    PubMed

    Régnier, Claire; Bouchet, Philippe; Hayes, Kenneth A; Yeung, Norine W; Christensen, Carl C; Chung, Daniel J D; Fontaine, Benoît; Cowie, Robert H

    2015-12-01

    The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List includes 832 species listed as extinct since 1600, a minuscule fraction of total biodiversity. This extinction rate is of the same order of magnitude as the background rate and has been used to downplay the biodiversity crisis. Invertebrates comprise 99% of biodiversity, yet the status of a negligible number has been assessed. We assessed extinction in the Hawaiian land snail family Amastridae (325 species, IUCN lists 33 as extinct). We did not use the stringent IUCN criteria, by which most invertebrates would be considered data deficient, but a more realistic approach comparing historical collections with modern surveys and expert knowledge. Of the 325 Amastridae species, 43 were originally described as fossil or subfossil and were assumed to be extinct. Of the remaining 282, we evaluated 88 as extinct and 15 as extant and determined that 179 species had insufficient evidence of extinction (though most are probably extinct). Results of statistical assessment of extinction probabilities were consistent with our expert evaluations of levels of extinction. Modeling various extinction scenarios yielded extinction rates of 0.4-14.0% of the amastrid fauna per decade. The true rate of amastrid extinction has not been constant; generally, it has increased over time. We estimated a realistic average extinction rate as approximately 5%/decade since the first half of the nineteenth century. In general, oceanic island biotas are especially susceptible to extinction and global rate generalizations do not reflect this. Our approach could be used for other invertebrates, especially those with restricted ranges (e.g., islands), and such an approach may be the only way to evaluate invertebrates rapidly enough to keep up with ongoing extinction.

  11. Temporal Dynamics of Recovery from Extinction Shortly after Extinction Acquisition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Archbold, Georgina E.; Dobbek, Nick; Nader, Karim

    2013-01-01

    Evidence suggests that extinction is new learning. Memory acquisition involves both short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM) components; however, few studies have examined early phases of extinction retention. Retention of auditory fear extinction was examined at various time points. Shortly (1-4 h) after extinction acquisition…

  12. Context and behavioral processes in extinction.

    PubMed

    Bouton, Mark E

    2004-01-01

    This article provides a selective review and integration of the behavioral literature on Pavlovian extinction. The first part reviews evidence that extinction does not destroy the original learning, but instead generates new learning that is especially context-dependent. The second part examines insights provided by research on several related behavioral phenomena (the interference paradigms, conditioned inhibition, and inhibition despite reinforcement). The final part examines four potential causes of extinction: the discrimination of a new reinforcement rate, generalization decrement, response inhibition, and violation of a reinforcer expectation. The data are consistent with behavioral models that emphasize the role of generalization decrement and expectation violation, but would be more so if those models were expanded to better accommodate the finding that extinction involves a context-modulated form of inhibitory learning.

  13. Electromagnetic wave extinction within a forested canopy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karam, M. A.; Fung, A. K.

    1989-01-01

    A forested canopy is modeled by a collection of randomly oriented finite-length cylinders shaded by randomly oriented and distributed disk- or needle-shaped leaves. For a plane wave exciting the forested canopy, the extinction coefficient is formulated in terms of the extinction cross sections (ECSs) in the local frame of each forest component and the Eulerian angles of orientation (used to describe the orientation of each component). The ECSs in the local frame for the finite-length cylinders used to model the branches are obtained by using the forward-scattering theorem. ECSs in the local frame for the disk- and needle-shaped leaves are obtained by the summation of the absorption and scattering cross-sections. The behavior of the extinction coefficients with the incidence angle is investigated numerically for both deciduous and coniferous forest. The dependencies of the extinction coefficients on the orientation of the leaves are illustrated numerically.

  14. On the prior distribution of extinction time.

    PubMed

    Solow, Andrew R

    2016-06-01

    Bayesian inference about the extinction of a species based on a record of its sightings requires the specification of a prior distribution for extinction time. Here, I critically review some specifications in the context of a specific model of the sighting record. The practical implication of the choice of prior distribution is illustrated through an application to the sighting record of the Caribbean monk seal. PMID:27277952

  15. Time and Chronology Skills for Elementary School Social Studies Classes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dianna, Michael A.

    Because all social studies classes require competence in time and chronology concepts, a sampling of ideas that elementary social studies teachers can use to help children understand time and chronology are presented followed by a list of skills necessary to help children understand the time system, the calendar, and chronology. Examples of…

  16. Use and misuse of extinct and long-lived radioactivities to reconstruct the early hystory of the Solar System.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allegre, C. J.; Manhes, G.; Moreira, M. A.

    2005-12-01

    In the recent years, with the progress of experimental technics in Isotope Geology, the use of extinct radioactivities to reconstruct the early Solar System evolution has been generalized. In several cases, their records have been presented in contradiction with the independant results obtained by long-lived radioactivities. We claim that in most cases, these contradictions result from the differences in recording properties of the two types of radioactivities. Extinct radioactivities have an high chronometric resolution but a limited recording time scale. At the opposite, long-lived radioactivities have a relatively low chronometric resolution for earliest time but they deliver a robust time record. Those two types of properties have to be used simultaneously to reconstruct a coherent scenario rather to choose systematically the informations derived from the extinct radioactivities. We give three examples. One is the case of Earth's atmosphere formation with the records of 129Xe in one hand, of 40Ar in the other hand and with the 244Pu between. The second example is the chronology of the formation of the Earth's core derived from 182Hf-182W and U-Pb systematics. The third case is the differential chronology of an early object like meteorites parent bodies, by 146Sm-142Nd and 147Sm-143Nd. We shows that for a perturbed system, a concordance is obtained, but it corresponds to a wrong age. The second set of problems concerns the informations which are derived from the comparison of measured daughter isotope abundances in distinct single samples of different planetary objects. The significance of these records is related to two fundamental unknowns : the age of the objects and the chemical parent/daughter ratios. We show that for recently published studies concerming 26Mg and 142 Nd abundances, the results have no direct and simple chronological significance unlike what was published whitout the necessary care. The taking in consideration of the whole of these

  17. Chronology and ecology of late Pleistocene megafauna in the northern Willamette Valley, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gilmour, Daniel M.; Butler, Virginia L.; O'Connor, James E.; Davis, Edward Byrd; Culleton, Brendan J.; Kennett, Douglas J.; Hodgins, Gregory W. L.

    2015-01-01

    Since the mid-19th century, western Oregon's Willamette Valley has been a source of remains from a wide variety of extinct megafauna. Few of these have been previously described or dated, but new chronologic and isotopic analyses in conjunction with updated evaluations of stratigraphic context provide substantial new information on the species present, timing of losses, and paleoenvironmental conditions. Using subfossil material from the northern valley, we use AMS radiocarbon dating, stable isotope (δ13C and δ15N) analyses, and taxonomic dietary specialization and habitat preferences to reconstruct environments and to develop a local chronology of events that we then compare with continental and regional archaeological and paleoenvironmental data. Analysis of twelve bone specimens demonstrates the presence of bison, mammoth, horse, sloth, and mastodon from ~ 15,000–13,000 cal yr BP. The latest ages coincide with changing regional climate corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. It is suggested that cooling conditions led to increased forest cover, and, along with river aggradation, reduced the area of preferred habitat for the larger bodied herbivores, which contributed to the demise of local megafauna. Archaeological evidence for megafauna–human interactions in the Pacific Northwest is scarce, limiting our ability to address the human role in causing extinction.

  18. Biomarker Records Associated with Mass Extinction Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whiteside, Jessica H.; Grice, Kliti

    2016-06-01

    The history of life on Earth is punctuated by a series of mass extinction episodes that vary widely in their magnitude, duration, and cause. Biomarkers are a powerful tool for the reconstruction of historical environmental conditions and can therefore provide insights into the cause and responses to ancient extinction events. In examining the five largest mass extinctions in the geological record, investigators have used biomarkers to elucidate key processes such as eutrophy, euxinia, ocean acidification, changes in hydrological balance, and changes in atmospheric CO2. By using these molecular fossils to understand how Earth and its ecosystems have responded to unusual environmental activity during these extinctions, models can be made to predict how Earth will respond to future changes in its climate.

  19. The extinction properties of forest components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karam, M. A.; Fung, A. K.; Blanchard, A. J.; Nance, C. E.

    1988-01-01

    The effect of each forest component on the extinction of electromagnetic waves is investigated by modeling the branches with finite cylinders, deciduous leaves with elliptic disks, and coniferous leaves with needles. The inner field is estimated by the field inside an infinitely long cylinder of similar properties for the branches, and by the Shifrin approximation for the leaves. For each forest component analytic expressions were derived for the extinction cross section via the forward scattering theorem and for ohmic and scattered losses. For branches, the variation of the extinction cross section obtained via the forward scattering theorem is illustrated numerically as a function of the branch radius and the imaginery part of its dielectric constant. It is compared with the measurements from a single branch. For the leaves, the forward scattering theorem gives value for the extinction cross section equal to the ohmic cross section.

  20. The Biblical Chronology of James Ussher

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCarthy, D. P.

    1997-01-01

    Interest in James Ussher and his chronological work saw a re-awakening as the date of 22nd October 1996 approached and it was realised that we were commencing the 6000th year from Archbishop Ussher's estimated date of Creation, viz. the beginning of the night of the 22nd October 4004 BC. In the popular press some, playing on the inherent uncertainty of our existence, suggested that Ussher had predicted that the world would end on the evening of 22 October 1996; thus the Irish Times headline of this date `An early tea would be advisable as the world may end at 6 p.m.', but this certainly misrepresents Ussher's work, for he made no such prediction. Who then was James Ussher and why is he so strongly associated with chronological matters in the public mind?

  1. Predicting extinction risk of Brazilian Atlantic forest angiosperms.

    PubMed

    Leão, Tarciso C C; Fonseca, Carlos R; Peres, Carlos A; Tabarelli, Marcelo

    2014-10-01

    Understanding how plant life history affects species vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbances and environmental change is a major ecological challenge. We examined how vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size relate to extinction risk throughout the Brazilian Atlantic Forest domain. We used a database containing species-level information of 6,929 angiosperms within 112 families and a molecular-based working phylogeny. We used decision trees, standard regression, and phylogenetic regression to explore the relationships between species attributes and extinction risk. We found a significant phylogenetic signal in extinction risk. Vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size were related to species extinction risk, but the effect of growth form was not evident after phylogeny was controlled for. Species restricted to either rocky outcrops or scrub vegetation on sandy coastal plains exhibited the highest extinction risk among vegetation types, a finding that supports the hypothesis that species adapted to resource-limited environments are more vulnerable to extinction. Among growth forms, epiphytes were associated with the highest extinction risk in non-phylogenetic regression models, followed by trees, whereas shrubs and climbers were associated with lower extinction risk. However, the higher extinction risk of epiphytes was not significant after correcting for phylogenetic relatedness. Our findings provide new indicators of extinction risk and insights into the mechanisms governing plant vulnerability to extinction in a highly diverse flora where human disturbances are both frequent and widespread.

  2. Predicting extinction risk of Brazilian Atlantic forest angiosperms.

    PubMed

    Leão, Tarciso C C; Fonseca, Carlos R; Peres, Carlos A; Tabarelli, Marcelo

    2014-10-01

    Understanding how plant life history affects species vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbances and environmental change is a major ecological challenge. We examined how vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size relate to extinction risk throughout the Brazilian Atlantic Forest domain. We used a database containing species-level information of 6,929 angiosperms within 112 families and a molecular-based working phylogeny. We used decision trees, standard regression, and phylogenetic regression to explore the relationships between species attributes and extinction risk. We found a significant phylogenetic signal in extinction risk. Vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size were related to species extinction risk, but the effect of growth form was not evident after phylogeny was controlled for. Species restricted to either rocky outcrops or scrub vegetation on sandy coastal plains exhibited the highest extinction risk among vegetation types, a finding that supports the hypothesis that species adapted to resource-limited environments are more vulnerable to extinction. Among growth forms, epiphytes were associated with the highest extinction risk in non-phylogenetic regression models, followed by trees, whereas shrubs and climbers were associated with lower extinction risk. However, the higher extinction risk of epiphytes was not significant after correcting for phylogenetic relatedness. Our findings provide new indicators of extinction risk and insights into the mechanisms governing plant vulnerability to extinction in a highly diverse flora where human disturbances are both frequent and widespread. PMID:24665927

  3. Conservation Risks: When Will Rhinos be Extinct?

    PubMed

    Haas, Timothy C; Ferreira, Sam M

    2016-08-01

    We develop a risk intelligence system for biodiversity enterprises. Such enterprises depend on a supply of endangered species for their revenue. Many of these enterprises, however, cannot purchase a supply of this resource and are largely unable to secure the resource against theft in the form of poaching. Because replacements are not available once a species becomes extinct, insurance products are not available to reduce the risk exposure of these enterprises to an extinction event. For many species, the dynamics of anthropogenic impacts driven by economic as well as noneconomic values of associated wildlife products along with their ecological stressors can help meaningfully predict extinction risks. We develop an agent/individual-based economic-ecological model that captures these effects and apply it to the case of South African rhinos. Our model uses observed rhino dynamics and poaching statistics. It seeks to predict rhino extinction under the present scenario. This scenario has no legal horn trade, but allows live African rhino trade and legal hunting. Present rhino populations are small and threatened by a rising onslaught of poaching. This present scenario and associated dynamics predicts continued decline in rhino population size with accelerated extinction risks of rhinos by 2036. Our model supports the computation of extinction risks at any future time point. This capability can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed conservation strategies at reducing a species' extinction risk. Models used to compute risk predictions, however, need to be statistically estimated. We point out that statistically fitting such models to observations will involve massive numbers of observations on consumer behavior and time-stamped location observations on thousands of animals. Finally, we propose Big Data algorithms to perform such estimates and to interpret the fitted model's output. PMID:26340794

  4. Rapidly moving cosmic strings and chronology protection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ori, Amos

    1991-10-01

    Recently, Gott has provided a family of solutions of the Einstein equations describing pairs of parallel cosmic strings in motion. He has shown that if the strings' relative velocity is sufficiently high, there exist closed timelike curves (CTC's) in the spacetime. Here we show that if there are CTC's in such a solution, then every t=const hypersurface in the spacetime intersects CTC's. Therefore, these solutions do not contradict the chronology protection conjecture of Hawking.

  5. National electronic health record interoperability chronology.

    PubMed

    Hufnagel, Stephen P

    2009-05-01

    The federal initiative for electronic health record (EHR) interoperability began in 2000 and set the stage for the establishment of the 2004 Executive Order for EHR interoperability by 2014. This article discusses the chronology from the 2001 e-Government Consolidated Health Informatics (CHI) initiative through the current congressional mandates for an aligned, interoperable, and agile DoD AHLTA and VA VistA.

  6. Extinction of the northern oceanic deep convection in an ensemble of climate model simulations of the 20th and 21st centuries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brodeau, Laurent; Koenigk, Torben

    2016-05-01

    We study the variability and the evolution of oceanic deep convection in the northern North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas from 1850 to 2100 using an ensemble of 12 climate model simulations with EC-Earth. During the historical period, the model shows a realistic localization of the main sites of deep convection, with the Labrador Sea accounting for most of the deep convective mixing in the northern hemisphere. Labrador convection is partly driven by the NAO (correlation of 0.6) and controls part of the variability of the AMOC at the decadal time scale (correlation of 0.6 when convection leads by 3-4 years). Deep convective activity in the Labrador Sea starts to decline and to become shallower in the beginning of the twentieth century. The decline is primarily caused by a decrease of the sensible heat loss to the atmosphere in winter resulting from increasingly warm atmospheric conditions. It occurs stepwise and is mainly the consequence of two severe drops in deep convective activity during the 1920s and the 1990s. These two events can both be linked to the low-frequency variability of the NAO. A warming of the sub-surface, resulting from reduced convective mixing, combines with an increasing influx of freshwater from the Nordic Seas to rapidly strengthen the surface stratification and prevent any possible resurgence of deep convection in the Labrador Sea after the 2020s. Deep convection in the Greenland Sea starts to decline in the 2020s, until complete extinction in 2100. As a response to the extinction of deep convection in the Labrador and Greenland Seas, the AMOC undergoes a linear decline at a rate of about -0.3 Sv per decade during the twenty-first century.

  7. A simple analysis of extinction spectra of cancerous and normal prostate tissues in near infrared range using a size discrete particle distribution and Mie scattering model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Kenneth J.; Chen, Jun

    2015-03-01

    The extinction spectra and optical coefficients of human cancerous and normal prostate tissues were investigated in the spectral range of 750 nm - 860 nm. The scattering coefficient (μs) was determined from the extinction measurements on thin prostate tissue and Beer's law. The absorption coefficient (μa) and the reduced scattering coefficient (μs') were extracted from integrate sphere intensity measurements on prostate tissue of which the thickness is in the multiple scattering range. The anisotropy factor (g) was calculated using the extracted values of μs and μs'. A micro-optical model of soft biological tissue was introduced to simulate the numerical computation of the absolute magnitudes of its scattering coefficients from the refractive index and a particle distribution function based on the Mie theory. A key assumption of the model is that the refractive index variations caused by microscopic tissue elements can be treated as particles with sizes distributed according to a skewed log-normal distribution function. The particle distribution and mean particle size of the two types of tissues were then calculated. Results show that the mean diameter of the particle size of cancerous tissue is larger than that of the cancerous tissue, which is responsible for larger reduced scattering coefficient of normal tissue in comparison with cancerous tissue. The results can be explained the change of tissue during prostate cancer evolution defined by Gleason Grade. The difference of the particles distribution and optical coefficients of cancerous and normal prostate tissues may present a potential criterion for prostate cancer detection.

  8. On the chronology of the Uluzzian.

    PubMed

    Douka, Katerina; Higham, Thomas F G; Wood, Rachel; Boscato, Paolo; Gambassini, Paolo; Karkanas, Panagiotis; Peresani, Marco; Ronchitelli, Anna Maria

    2014-03-01

    The Uluzzian, one of Europe's 'transitional' technocomplexes, has gained particular significance over the past three years when the only human remains associated with it were attributed to modern humans, instead of Neanderthals as previously thought. The position of the Uluzzian at stratified sequences, always overlying late Mousterian layers and underlying early Upper Palaeolithic ones, highlights its significance in understanding the passage from the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic, as well as the replacement of Neanderthals by modern humans in southeastern Mediterranean Europe. Despite several studies investigating aspects of its lithic techno-typology, taxonomy and material culture, the Uluzzian chronology has remained extremely poorly-known, based on a handful of dubious chronometric determinations. Here we aim to elucidate the chronological aspect of the technocomplex by presenting an integrated synthesis of new radiocarbon results and a Bayesian statistical approach from four stratified Uluzzian cave sequences in Italy and Greece (Cavallo, Fumane, Castelcivita and Klissoura 1). In addition to building a reliable chronological framework for the Uluzzian, we examine its appearance, tempo-spatial spread and correlation to previous and later Palaeolithic assemblages (Mousterian, Protoaurignacian) at the relevant regions. We conclude that the Uluzzian arrived in Italy and Greece shortly before 45,000 years ago and its final stages are placed at ∼39,500 years ago, its end synchronous (if not slightly earlier) with the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption. PMID:24513033

  9. On the chronology of the Uluzzian.

    PubMed

    Douka, Katerina; Higham, Thomas F G; Wood, Rachel; Boscato, Paolo; Gambassini, Paolo; Karkanas, Panagiotis; Peresani, Marco; Ronchitelli, Anna Maria

    2014-03-01

    The Uluzzian, one of Europe's 'transitional' technocomplexes, has gained particular significance over the past three years when the only human remains associated with it were attributed to modern humans, instead of Neanderthals as previously thought. The position of the Uluzzian at stratified sequences, always overlying late Mousterian layers and underlying early Upper Palaeolithic ones, highlights its significance in understanding the passage from the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic, as well as the replacement of Neanderthals by modern humans in southeastern Mediterranean Europe. Despite several studies investigating aspects of its lithic techno-typology, taxonomy and material culture, the Uluzzian chronology has remained extremely poorly-known, based on a handful of dubious chronometric determinations. Here we aim to elucidate the chronological aspect of the technocomplex by presenting an integrated synthesis of new radiocarbon results and a Bayesian statistical approach from four stratified Uluzzian cave sequences in Italy and Greece (Cavallo, Fumane, Castelcivita and Klissoura 1). In addition to building a reliable chronological framework for the Uluzzian, we examine its appearance, tempo-spatial spread and correlation to previous and later Palaeolithic assemblages (Mousterian, Protoaurignacian) at the relevant regions. We conclude that the Uluzzian arrived in Italy and Greece shortly before 45,000 years ago and its final stages are placed at ∼39,500 years ago, its end synchronous (if not slightly earlier) with the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption.

  10. Hybridization and extinction.

    PubMed

    Todesco, Marco; Pascual, Mariana A; Owens, Gregory L; Ostevik, Katherine L; Moyers, Brook T; Hübner, Sariel; Heredia, Sylvia M; Hahn, Min A; Caseys, Celine; Bock, Dan G; Rieseberg, Loren H

    2016-08-01

    Hybridization may drive rare taxa to extinction through genetic swamping, where the rare form is replaced by hybrids, or by demographic swamping, where population growth rates are reduced due to the wasteful production of maladaptive hybrids. Conversely, hybridization may rescue the viability of small, inbred populations. Understanding the factors that contribute to destructive versus constructive outcomes of hybridization is key to managing conservation concerns. Here, we survey the literature for studies of hybridization and extinction to identify the ecological, evolutionary, and genetic factors that critically affect extinction risk through hybridization. We find that while extinction risk is highly situation dependent, genetic swamping is much more frequent than demographic swamping. In addition, human involvement is associated with increased risk and high reproductive isolation with reduced risk. Although climate change is predicted to increase the risk of hybridization-induced extinction, we find little empirical support for this prediction. Similarly, theoretical and experimental studies imply that genetic rescue through hybridization may be equally or more probable than demographic swamping, but our literature survey failed to support this claim. We conclude that halting the introduction of hybridization-prone exotics and restoring mature and diverse habitats that are resistant to hybrid establishment should be management priorities. PMID:27468307

  11. Stress and Fear Extinction.

    PubMed

    Maren, Stephen; Holmes, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Stress has a critical role in the development and expression of many psychiatric disorders, and is a defining feature of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Stress also limits the efficacy of behavioral therapies aimed at limiting pathological fear, such as exposure therapy. Here we examine emerging evidence that stress impairs recovery from trauma by impairing fear extinction, a form of learning thought to underlie the suppression of trauma-related fear memories. We describe the major structural and functional abnormalities in brain regions that are particularly vulnerable to stress, including the amygdala, prefrontal cortex, and hippocampus, which may underlie stress-induced impairments in extinction. We also discuss some of the stress-induced neurochemical and molecular alterations in these brain regions that are associated with extinction deficits, and the potential for targeting these changes to prevent or reverse impaired extinction. A better understanding of the neurobiological basis of stress effects on extinction promises to yield novel approaches to improving therapeutic outcomes for PTSD and other anxiety and trauma-related disorders.

  12. Uncoupling reproduction from metabolism extends chronological lifespan in yeast.

    PubMed

    Nagarajan, Saisubramanian; Kruckeberg, Arthur L; Schmidt, Karen H; Kroll, Evgueny; Hamilton, Morgan; McInnerney, Kate; Summers, Ryan; Taylor, Timothy; Rosenzweig, Frank

    2014-04-15

    Studies of replicative and chronological lifespan in Saccharomyces cerevisiae have advanced understanding of longevity in all eukaryotes. Chronological lifespan in this species is defined as the age-dependent viability of nondividing cells. To date this parameter has only been estimated under calorie restriction, mimicked by starvation. Because postmitotic cells in higher eukaryotes often do not starve, we developed a model yeast system to study cells as they age in the absence of calorie restriction. Yeast cells were encapsulated in a matrix consisting of calcium alginate to form ∼3 mm beads that were packed into bioreactors and fed ad libitum. Under these conditions cells ceased to divide, became heat shock and zymolyase resistant, yet retained high fermentative capacity. Over the course of 17 d, immobilized yeast cells maintained >95% viability, whereas the viability of starving, freely suspended (planktonic) cells decreased to <10%. Immobilized cells exhibited a stable pattern of gene expression that differed markedly from growing or starving planktonic cells, highly expressing genes in glycolysis, cell wall remodeling, and stress resistance, but decreasing transcription of genes in the tricarboxylic acid cycle, and genes that regulate the cell cycle, including master cyclins CDC28 and CLN1. Stress resistance transcription factor MSN4 and its upstream effector RIM15 are conspicuously up-regulated in the immobilized state, and an immobilized rim15 knockout strain fails to exhibit the long-lived, growth-arrested phenotype, suggesting that altered regulation of the Rim15-mediated nutrient-sensing pathway plays an important role in extending yeast chronological lifespan under calorie-unrestricted conditions. PMID:24706810

  13. Uncoupling reproduction from metabolism extends chronological lifespan in yeast.

    PubMed

    Nagarajan, Saisubramanian; Kruckeberg, Arthur L; Schmidt, Karen H; Kroll, Evgueny; Hamilton, Morgan; McInnerney, Kate; Summers, Ryan; Taylor, Timothy; Rosenzweig, Frank

    2014-04-15

    Studies of replicative and chronological lifespan in Saccharomyces cerevisiae have advanced understanding of longevity in all eukaryotes. Chronological lifespan in this species is defined as the age-dependent viability of nondividing cells. To date this parameter has only been estimated under calorie restriction, mimicked by starvation. Because postmitotic cells in higher eukaryotes often do not starve, we developed a model yeast system to study cells as they age in the absence of calorie restriction. Yeast cells were encapsulated in a matrix consisting of calcium alginate to form ∼3 mm beads that were packed into bioreactors and fed ad libitum. Under these conditions cells ceased to divide, became heat shock and zymolyase resistant, yet retained high fermentative capacity. Over the course of 17 d, immobilized yeast cells maintained >95% viability, whereas the viability of starving, freely suspended (planktonic) cells decreased to <10%. Immobilized cells exhibited a stable pattern of gene expression that differed markedly from growing or starving planktonic cells, highly expressing genes in glycolysis, cell wall remodeling, and stress resistance, but decreasing transcription of genes in the tricarboxylic acid cycle, and genes that regulate the cell cycle, including master cyclins CDC28 and CLN1. Stress resistance transcription factor MSN4 and its upstream effector RIM15 are conspicuously up-regulated in the immobilized state, and an immobilized rim15 knockout strain fails to exhibit the long-lived, growth-arrested phenotype, suggesting that altered regulation of the Rim15-mediated nutrient-sensing pathway plays an important role in extending yeast chronological lifespan under calorie-unrestricted conditions.

  14. Uncoupling reproduction from metabolism extends chronological lifespan in yeast

    PubMed Central

    Nagarajan, Saisubramanian; Kruckeberg, Arthur L.; Schmidt, Karen H.; Kroll, Evgueny; Hamilton, Morgan; McInnerney, Kate; Summers, Ryan; Taylor, Timothy; Rosenzweig, Frank

    2014-01-01

    Studies of replicative and chronological lifespan in Saccharomyces cerevisiae have advanced understanding of longevity in all eukaryotes. Chronological lifespan in this species is defined as the age-dependent viability of nondividing cells. To date this parameter has only been estimated under calorie restriction, mimicked by starvation. Because postmitotic cells in higher eukaryotes often do not starve, we developed a model yeast system to study cells as they age in the absence of calorie restriction. Yeast cells were encapsulated in a matrix consisting of calcium alginate to form ∼3 mm beads that were packed into bioreactors and fed ad libitum. Under these conditions cells ceased to divide, became heat shock and zymolyase resistant, yet retained high fermentative capacity. Over the course of 17 d, immobilized yeast cells maintained >95% viability, whereas the viability of starving, freely suspended (planktonic) cells decreased to <10%. Immobilized cells exhibited a stable pattern of gene expression that differed markedly from growing or starving planktonic cells, highly expressing genes in glycolysis, cell wall remodeling, and stress resistance, but decreasing transcription of genes in the tricarboxylic acid cycle, and genes that regulate the cell cycle, including master cyclins CDC28 and CLN1. Stress resistance transcription factor MSN4 and its upstream effector RIM15 are conspicuously up-regulated in the immobilized state, and an immobilized rim15 knockout strain fails to exhibit the long-lived, growth-arrested phenotype, suggesting that altered regulation of the Rim15-mediated nutrient-sensing pathway plays an important role in extending yeast chronological lifespan under calorie-unrestricted conditions. PMID:24706810

  15. Experimental evidence that an asteroid impact led to the extinction of many species 65 million years ago

    SciTech Connect

    Alvarez, L.W.

    1982-09-01

    The development of the theory that the mass extinction of the dinosaurs at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary was caused by an asteroid impact is reviewed. The personnel involved, the objections to the theory, and the evidence refuting those objections are presented chronologically. (ACR)

  16. Biological extinction in earth history

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raup, D. M.

    1986-01-01

    Virtually all plant and animal species that have ever lived on the earth are extinct. For this reason alone, extinction must play an important role in the evolution of life. The five largest mass extinctions of the past 600 million years are of greatest interest, but there is also a spectrum of smaller events, many of which indicate biological systems in profound stress. Extinction may be episodic at all scales, with relatively long periods of stability alternating with short-lived extinction events. Most extinction episodes are biologically selective, and further analysis of the victims and survivors offers the greatest chance of deducing the proximal causes of extinction. A drop in sea level and climatic change are most frequently invoked to explain mass extinctions, but new theories of collisions with extraterrestrial bodies are gaining favor. Extinction may be constructive in a Darwinian sense or it may only perturb the system by eliminating those organisms that happen to be susceptible to geologically rare stresses.

  17. Species extinction mires ecosystem

    SciTech Connect

    Holzman, D.

    1990-03-26

    Extinction is normal in the evolution of life, but amphibians, insects, birds and mammals are vanishing at an alarming pace. While habitat destruction, overexploitation and pollution are among the main causes, some disappearances cannot be explained. The extinction problem among amphibians mirrors the general, worldwide phenomenon. A synergism of insults may be responsible. Chance events such as a dry year might occasionally clean out a pond. But a larger lake nearby would replenish it. Now acid pollution adds to the ponds' burden while stocking of amphibian-eating sport fish in the lake - which happens even in natural parks - would destroy the source of replenishment. Some fear that extinctions ultimately could destroy nature's fabric.

  18. Controversy over mass extinctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katzoff, Judith A.

    The notion that mass extinctions of species occur at 26-million-year (m.y.) intervals received wide attention in the scientific and popular press a little over a year ago. According to the theory, some sort of periodic extra-terrestrial event had led to the episodes of extinction; comet showers brought on by any of a variety of causes were frequently offered as one explanation.Now the idea is back in the news, this time drawing criticism. An article published in the June 20 issue of Nature criticizes the original analysis, by David Raup and John Sepkoski of the University of Chicago, on the grounds that their data base was overly pared down and that they used a biased definition for mass extinction. Raup and his supporters say that papers now in press will answer the objections.

  19. Cold pressor test improves fear extinction in healthy men.

    PubMed

    Antov, Martin I; Melicherová, Ursula; Stockhorst, Ursula

    2015-04-01

    Fear extinction is an important paradigm to study the neural basis of anxiety and trauma- and stressor-related disorders and for modeling features of extinction learning and exposure-based psychotherapy. To date the effects of acute stress on extinction learning in humans are not well understood. Models of stress effects on emotional memory suggest that learning during the so-called first wave of the stress response will be enhanced. The first wave includes (among others) increases of noradrenaline in the brain and increased sympathetic tone, adrenaline and noradrenaline in the periphery while the second wave includes genomic glucocorticoid-actions. The cold pressor test (CPT) is a valid way to induce the first wave of the stress response. We thus hypothesized that the CPT will facilitate extinction. In a 2-day fear-conditioning procedure with 40 healthy men, using differential skin conductance responses as a measure of conditioned fear, we placed the CPT versus a control procedure prior to extinction training on Day 1. We tested for extinction learning on Day 1 and extinction retrieval on Day 2. During extinction training (Day 1) only the CPT-group showed a significant reduction in differential responding. This was still evident on Day 2, where the CPT group had less differential responding during early trials (retrieval) and a higher extinction retention index. This is the first human study to show that a simple procedure, triggering the first-wave stress response--the CPT--can effectively enhance fear extinction in humans.

  20. Supernovae and mass extinctions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vandenbergh, S.

    1994-01-01

    Shklovsky and others have suggested that some of the major extinctions in the geological record might have been triggered by explosions of nearby supernovae. The frequency of such extinction events will depend on the galactic supernova frequency and on the distance up to which a supernova explosion will produce lethal effects upon terrestrial life. In the present note it will be assumed that a killer supernova has to occur so close to Earth that it will be embedded in a young, active, supernova remnant. Such young remnants typically have radii approximately less than 3 pc (1 x 10(exp 19) cm). Larger (more pessimistic?) killer radii have been adopted by Ruderman, Romig, and by Ellis and Schramm. From observations of historical supernovae, van den Bergh finds that core-collapse (types Ib and II) supernovae occur within 4 kpc of the Sun at a rate of 0.2 plus or minus 0.1 per century. Adopting a layer thickness of 0.3 kpc for the galacitc disk, this corresponds to a rate of approximately 1.3 x 10(exp -4) supernovae pc(exp -3) g.y.(exp -1). Including supernovae of type Ia will increase the total supernovae rate to approximately 1.5 x 10(exp -4) supernovae pc(exp -3) g.y.(exp -1). For a lethal radius of R pc the rate of killer events will therefore be 1.7 (R/3)(exp 3) x 10(exp -2) supernovae per g.y. However, a frequency of a few extinctions per g.y. is required to account for the extinctions observed during the phanerozoic. With R (extinction) approximately 3 pc, the galactic supernova frequency is therefore too low by 2 orders of magnitude to account for the major extinctions in the geological record.

  1. Extinction from a paleontological perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raup, D. M.

    1993-01-01

    Extinction of widespread species is common in evolutionary time (millions of years) but rare in ecological time (hundreds or thousands of years). In the fossil record, there appears to be a smooth continuum between background and mass extinction; and the clustering of extinctions at mass extinctions cannot be explained by the chance coincidence of independent events. Although some extinction is selective, much is apparently random in that survivors have no recognizable superiority over victims. Extinction certainly plays an important role in evolution, but whether it is constructive or destructive has not yet been determined.

  2. [Characteristics and Parameterization for Atmospheric Extinction Coefficient in Beijing].

    PubMed

    Chen, Yi-na; Zhao, Pu-sheng; He, Di; Dong, Fan; Zhao, Xiu-juan; Zhang, Xiao-ling

    2015-10-01

    In order to study the characteristics of atmospheric extinction coefficient in Beijing, systematic measurements had been carried out for atmospheric visibility, PM2.5 concentration, scattering coefficient, black carbon, reactive gases, and meteorological parameters from 2013 to 2014. Based on these data, we compared some published fitting schemes of aerosol light scattering enhancement factor [ f(RH)], and discussed the characteristics and the key influence factors for atmospheric extinction coefficient. Then a set of parameterization models of atmospheric extinction coefficient for different seasons and different polluted levels had been established. The results showed that aerosol scattering accounted for more than 94% of total light extinction. In the summer and autumn, the aerosol hygroscopic growth caused by high relative humidity had increased the aerosol scattering coefficient by 70 to 80 percent. The parameterization models could reflect the influencing mechanism of aerosol and relative humidity upon ambient light extinction, and describe the seasonal variations of aerosol light extinction ability. PMID:26841588

  3. [Characteristics and Parameterization for Atmospheric Extinction Coefficient in Beijing].

    PubMed

    Chen, Yi-na; Zhao, Pu-sheng; He, Di; Dong, Fan; Zhao, Xiu-juan; Zhang, Xiao-ling

    2015-10-01

    In order to study the characteristics of atmospheric extinction coefficient in Beijing, systematic measurements had been carried out for atmospheric visibility, PM2.5 concentration, scattering coefficient, black carbon, reactive gases, and meteorological parameters from 2013 to 2014. Based on these data, we compared some published fitting schemes of aerosol light scattering enhancement factor [ f(RH)], and discussed the characteristics and the key influence factors for atmospheric extinction coefficient. Then a set of parameterization models of atmospheric extinction coefficient for different seasons and different polluted levels had been established. The results showed that aerosol scattering accounted for more than 94% of total light extinction. In the summer and autumn, the aerosol hygroscopic growth caused by high relative humidity had increased the aerosol scattering coefficient by 70 to 80 percent. The parameterization models could reflect the influencing mechanism of aerosol and relative humidity upon ambient light extinction, and describe the seasonal variations of aerosol light extinction ability.

  4. Chronology of the early solar system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trieloff, M.

    2008-09-01

    Radioisotope chronologies from both long-lived nuclides (238,235U-206,207Pb, 40K-40Ar [1,2,3]) and shortlived radionuclides (129Xe from 129I; half-live T1/2=16 Myr [4,5], excess 26Mg from 26Al; T1/2=0.73 Myr [6], 53Cr from 53Mn; T1/2=3.7 Myr [7], 182Hf from 182W; T1/2=9 Myr [8,9]) provide a framework for the formation of solids in the early solar system. We present an early solar system chronology based on the calibration of short-lived isotope chronometries to several tie points (CAIs, H chondrites, Acapulco), and planetesimal heating in the early solar system [3,10]. Conditions of formation of the first solids in the solar nebula varied - most probably due to p,T differences imposed by the early sun - with radial distance and/or time, and caused the compositional variety of planetesimals concerning refractory and volatile elements, metals, Mg-rich silicates, and probably also oxygen isotopes [10,11,12]. Radiometric dating and chemical composition suggest that individual planetesimals grew rapidly in the asteroid belt (within < 1 Myr), but different planetesimals formed over a time interval of 4 million years [3,9,10], well within the lifetime of protoplanetary dust disks in extrasolar systems [13,14]. Early planetesimals were heated to varying degrees by decay heat of short-lived nuclides (primarily 26Al) [3]. This caused melting and differentiation in early (within < 2 Ma after CAIs) formed planetesimals and led to the formation of iron cores and basaltic rocks, while planetesimals that accreted later remained undifferentiated [3,9,10]. Chondritic parent bodies experienced severe thermal metamorphism in the case of ordinary chondrites, and aqueous alteration (further modifying the oxygen isotopic composition) in the case of carbonaceous chondrites. As most chondrules were immediately consumed in accreting planetesimals, they were only preserved in unmelted chondritic parent bodies and their age distribution is biased to the formation time interval of chondrites

  5. Mechanisms of fear extinction.

    PubMed

    Myers, K M; Davis, M

    2007-02-01

    Excessive fear and anxiety are hallmarks of a variety of disabling anxiety disorders that affect millions of people throughout the world. Hence, a greater understanding of the brain mechanisms involved in the inhibition of fear and anxiety is attracting increasing interest in the research community. In the laboratory, fear inhibition most often is studied through a procedure in which a previously fear conditioned organism is exposed to a fear-eliciting cue in the absence of any aversive event. This procedure results in a decline in conditioned fear responses that is attributed to a process called fear extinction. Extensive empirical work by behavioral psychologists has revealed basic behavioral characteristics of extinction, and theoretical accounts have emphasized extinction as a form of inhibitory learning as opposed to an erasure of acquired fear. Guided by this work, neuroscientists have begun to dissect the neural mechanisms involved, including the regions in which extinction-related plasticity occurs and the cellular and molecular processes that are engaged. The present paper will cover behavioral, theoretical and neurobiological work, and will conclude with a discussion of clinical implications.

  6. Unexpectedly many extinct hominins.

    PubMed

    Bokma, Folmer; van den Brink, Valentijn; Stadler, Tanja

    2012-09-01

    Recent studies indicate that Neanderthal and Denisova hominins may have been separate species, while debate continues on the status of Homo floresiensis. The decade-long debate between "splitters," who recognize over 20 hominin species, and "lumpers," who maintain that all these fossils belong to just a few lineages, illustrates that we do not know how many extinct hominin species to expect. Here, we present probability distributions for the number of speciation events and the number of contemporary species along a branch of a phylogeny. With estimates of hominin speciation and extincton rates, we then show that the expected total number of extinct hominin species is 8, but may be as high as 27. We also show that it is highly unlikely that three very recent species disappeared due to natural, background extinction. This may indicate that human-like remains are too easily considered distinct species. Otherwise, the evidence suggesting that Neanderthal and the Denisova hominin represent distinct species implies a recent wave of extinctions, ostensibly driven by the only survivor, H. sapiens. PMID:22946817

  7. Biogeography and extinction

    SciTech Connect

    Jablonski, D.

    1985-01-01

    The geographic ranges of species and clades, and the deployment of those clades among biogeographic provinces, are important determinants of rates and patterns of extinction. Studies of Late Cretaceous mollusks of the Gulf and Atlantic Coastal Plain confirm that species duration is closely correlated with geographic range during times of normal, background extinction. When species that originate in the last 2 myr of the Cretaceous, the correlation increases significantly. The fact that even these truncated species frequently attained broad geographic ranges indicates that during background times duration is a function of geographic range and not vice versa. However, during the end-Cretaceous mass extinction, it is clade geographic range and not the within-province ranges of its constituent species that determines survivorship: about 55% of the widespread genera but only 12% of the endemic genera survive, regardless of the ranges of their individual species. Thus, clade geographic range is an irreducible property, with effects decoupled from species-level or organismic traits that determine species' geographic ranges. Clades with tropical distributions suffer disproportionately, again independent of species' geographic range magnitudes. Survivorship of taxa or morphologies during mass extinctions may have little to do with adaptation at the organismic or even species level, but depends at least in part on clade-level traits that are less important during background times.

  8. Chronology of sediment deposition in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Colman, Steven M.; Bradbury, J.P.; McGeehin, J.P.; Holmes, C.W.; Edginton, D.; Sarna-Wojcicki, A. M.

    2004-01-01

    A combination of tephrochronology and 14C, 210Pb, and 137Cs measurements provides a robust chronology for sedimentation in Upper Klamath Lake during the last 45 000 years. Mixing of surficial sediments and possible mobility of the radio-isotopes limit the usefulness of the 137Cs and 210Pb data, but 210Pb profiles provide reasonable average sediment accumulation rates for the last 100-150 years. Radiocarbon ages near the top of the core are somewhat erratic and are too old, probably as a result of detrital organic carbon, which may have become a more common component in recent times as surrounding marshes were drained. Below the tops of the cores, radiocarbon ages in the center of the basin appear to be about 400 years too old, while those on the margin appear to be accurate, based on comparisons with tephra layers of known age. Taken together, the data can be combined into reasonable age models for each site. Sediments have accumulated at site K1, near the center of the basin, about 2 times faster than at site CM2, on the margin of the lake. The rates are about 0.10 and 0.05 cm/yr, respectively. The chronological data also indicate that accumulation rates were slower during the early to middle Holocene than during the late Holocene, consistent with increasing wetness in the late Holocene.

  9. Ecology: Dynamics of Indirect Extinction.

    PubMed

    Montoya, Jose M

    2015-12-01

    The experimental identification of the mechanism by which extinctions of predators trigger further predator extinctions emphasizes the role of indirect effects between species in disturbed ecosystems. It also has deep consequences for the hidden magnitude of the current biodiversity crisis.

  10. Reduced TOR signaling extends chronological life span via increased respiration and upregulation of mitochondrial gene expression.

    PubMed

    Bonawitz, Nicholas D; Chatenay-Lapointe, Marc; Pan, Yong; Shadel, Gerald S

    2007-04-01

    The relationships between mitochondrial respiration, reactive oxygen species (ROS), and life span are complex and remain controversial. Inhibition of the target of rapamycin (TOR) signaling pathway extends life span in several model organisms. We show here that deletion of the TOR1 gene extends chronological life span in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, primarily by increasing mitochondrial respiration via enhanced translation of mtDNA-encoded oxidative phosphorylation complex subunits. Unlike previously reported pathways regulating chronological life span, we demonstrate that deletion of TOR1 delays aging independently of the antioxidant gene SOD2. Furthermore, wild-type and tor1 null strains differ in life span only when respiration competent and grown in normoxia in the presence of glucose. We propose that inhibition of TOR signaling causes derepression of respiration during growth in glucose and that the subsequent increase in mitochondrial oxygen consumption limits intracellular oxygen and ROS-mediated damage during glycolytic growth, leading to lower cellular ROS and extension of chronological life span.

  11. Three-dimensional dust aerosol distribution and extinction climatology over northern Africa simulated with the ALADIN numerical prediction model from 2006 to 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mokhtari, M.; Tulet, P.; Fischer, C.; Bouteloup, Y.; Bouyssel, F.; Brachemi, O.

    2015-08-01

    The seasonal cycle and optical properties of mineral dust aerosols in northern Africa were simulated for the period from 2006 to 2010 using the numerical atmospheric model ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational) coupled to the surface scheme SURFEX (SURFace EXternalisée). The particularity of the simulations is that the major physical processes responsible for dust emission and transport, as well as radiative effects, are taken into account on short timescales and at mesoscale resolution. The aim of these simulations is to quantify the dust emission and deposition, locate the major areas of dust emission and establish a climatology of aerosol optical properties in northern Africa. The mean monthly aerosol optical thickness (AOT) simulated by ALADIN is compared with the AOTs derived from the standard Dark Target (DT) and Deep Blue (DB) algorithms of the Aqua-MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products over northern Africa and with a set of sun photometer measurements located at Banizoumbou, Cinzana, Soroa, Mbour and Cape Verde. The vertical distribution of dust aerosol represented by extinction profiles is also analysed using CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) observations. The annual dust emission simulated by ALADIN over northern Africa is 878 Tg year-1. The Bodélé Depression appears to be the main area of dust emission in northern Africa, with an average estimate of about 21.6 Tg year-1. The simulated AOTs are in good agreement with satellite and sun photometer observations. The positions of the maxima of the modelled AOTs over northern Africa match the observed positions, and the ALADIN simulations satisfactorily reproduce the various dust events over the 2006-2010 period. The AOT climatology proposed in this paper provides a solid database of optical properties and consolidates the existing climatology over this region derived from satellites, the AERONET network and regional climate

  12. Genetic disruptions of Drosophila Pavlovian learning leave extinction learning intact

    PubMed Central

    Qin, Hongtao; Dubnau, Josh

    2009-01-01

    Individuals that experience traumatic events may develop persistent post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Patients with this disorder are commonly treated with exposure therapy, which has had limited long-term success. In experimental neurobiology, fear extinction is a model for exposure therapy. In this behavioral paradigm, animals are repeatedly exposed in a safe environment to the fearful stimulus, which leads to greatly reduced fear. Studying animal models of extinction already has lead to better therapeutic strategies and development of new candidate drugs. Lack of a powerful genetic model of extinction, however, has limited progress in identifying underlying molecular and genetic factors. In this study, we established a robust behavioral paradigm to study the short term effect (acquisition) of extinction in Drosophila melanogaster. We focused on the extinction of olfactory aversive one-day memory with a task that has been the main workhorse for genetics of memory in flies. Using this paradigm, we demonstrate that extinction can inhibit each of two genetically distinct forms of consolidated memory. We then used a series of single-gene mutants with known impact on associative learning, to examine effects on extinction. We find that extinction is intact in each of these mutants, suggesting that extinction learning relies on different molecular mechanisms than does Pavlovian learning. PMID:20015341

  13. Insights into Holocene megafauna survival and extinction in southeastern Brazil from new AMS 14C dates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hubbe, Alex; Hubbe, Mark; Karmann, Ivo; Cruz, Francisco W.; Neves, Walter A.

    2013-03-01

    The extinction of late Quaternary megafauna in South America has been extensively debated in past decades. The majority of the hypotheses explaining this phenomenon argue that the extinction was the result of human activities, environmental changes, or even synergism between the two. Although still limited, a good chronological framework is imperative to discuss the plausibility of the available hypotheses. Here we present six new direct AMS 14C radiocarbon dates from the state of São Paulo (Brazil) to further characterize the chronological distribution of extinct fauna in this part of South America. The new dates make evident that ground sloths, toxodonts, and saber-toothed cats lived in the region around the Pleistocene/Holocene transition, and, in agreement with previous studies, also suggest an early Holocene survival for the ground sloth Catonyx cuvieri. Taken together with local paleoclimatic and archaeological data, the new dates do not support hunting or indirect human activities as a major cause for megafauna extinction. Although more data are required, parsimony suggests that climatic changes played a major role in this extinction event.

  14. Are Cranial Biomechanical Simulation Data Linked to Known Diets in Extant Taxa? A Method for Applying Diet-Biomechanics Linkage Models to Infer Feeding Capability of Extinct Species

    PubMed Central

    Tseng, Zhijie Jack; Flynn, John J.

    2015-01-01

    Performance of the masticatory system directly influences feeding and survival, so adaptive hypotheses often are proposed to explain craniodental evolution via functional morphology changes. However, the prevalence of “many-to-one” association of cranial forms and functions in vertebrates suggests a complex interplay of ecological and evolutionary histories, resulting in redundant morphology-diet linkages. Here we examine the link between cranial biomechanical properties for taxa with different dietary preferences in crown clade Carnivora, the most diverse clade of carnivorous mammals. We test whether hypercarnivores and generalists can be distinguished based on cranial mechanical simulation models, and how such diet-biomechanics linkages relate to morphology. Comparative finite element and geometric morphometrics analyses document that predicted bite force is positively allometric relative to skull strain energy; this is achieved in part by increased stiffness in larger skull models and shape changes that resist deformation and displacement. Size-standardized strain energy levels do not reflect feeding preferences; instead, caniform models have higher strain energy than feliform models. This caniform-feliform split is reinforced by a sensitivity analysis using published models for six additional taxa. Nevertheless, combined bite force-strain energy curves distinguish hypercarnivorous versus generalist feeders. These findings indicate that the link between cranial biomechanical properties and carnivoran feeding preference can be clearly defined and characterized, despite phylogenetic and allometric effects. Application of this diet-biomechanics linkage model to an analysis of an extinct stem carnivoramorphan and an outgroup creodont species provides biomechanical evidence for the evolution of taxa into distinct hypercarnivorous and generalist feeding styles prior to the appearance of crown carnivoran clades with similar feeding preferences. PMID:25923776

  15. Extinction rate fragility in population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Khasin, M; Dykman, M I

    2009-08-01

    Population extinction is of central interest for population dynamics. It may occur from a large rare fluctuation. We find that, in contrast to related large-fluctuation effects like noise-induced interstate switching, quite generally extinction rates in multipopulation systems display fragility, where the height of the effective barrier to be overcome in the fluctuation depends on the system parameters nonanalytically. We show that one of the best-known models of epidemiology, the susceptible-infectious-susceptible model, is fragile to total population fluctuations.

  16. The Possible Role of Climatic Changes In Later Pleistocene Human Evolution and Extinctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stringer, C.

    Problems of chronological resolution greatly restrict our ability to match the Pleis- tocene fossil human succession to detailed palaeoclimatic records. This talk will ad- dress two relevant research areas. The first concerns the ancient human occupation of Britain, now the focus of a specific project (AHOB). Human occupation of Britain was influenced by two main factors, palaeogeography (particularly in relation to the periodic absence of a land bridge, largely controlled by climate) and palaeoclimate (particularly influenced by conditions in the North Atlantic). The second area con- cerns the European extinction of the Neanderthals and their replacement by modern humans. Particularly in the latter case, if we can move beyond reliance on uncalibrated radiocarbon chronologies, we may eventually be able to correlate human demographic changes, including Neanderthal extinction, with rapid climatic fluctuations.

  17. Mass Extinctions Past and Present.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Allmon, Warren Douglas

    1987-01-01

    Discusses some parallels that seem to exist between mass extinction recognizable in the geologic record and the impending extinction of a significant proportion of the earth's species due largely to tropical deforestation. Describes some recent theories of causal factors and periodicities in mass extinction. (Author/TW)

  18. Resistance to extinction in the steady state and in transition.

    PubMed

    Nevin, John A; Grace, Randolph C

    2005-04-01

    Three experiments with pigeons explored the constancy of reinforcer omission during extinction conjectured by rate estimation theory. Experiment 1 arranged 3-component multiple variable-interval (VI) schedules with a mixture of food and extinction trials within each session. Reinforcers omitted to an extinction criterion increased with food-trial reinforcer rate. Experiment 2 arranged 3-component multiple VI schedules where components differed in rate or number of reinforcers. Resistance to extinction depended on the training reinforcer rate but not on the number of reinforcers omitted. Experiment 3 replicated the partial-reinforcement extinction effect within subjects in a discrete-trial procedure and found that more reinforcers were omitted in continuous- than in partial-reinforcement trials. A model of extinction based on behavioral momentum theory accounted for all the data.

  19. Magnitude and variation of prehistoric bird extinctions in the Pacific

    PubMed Central

    Duncan, Richard P.; Boyer, Alison G.; Blackburn, Tim M.

    2013-01-01

    The largest extinction event in the Holocene occurred on Pacific islands, where Late Quaternary fossils reveal the loss of thousands of bird populations following human colonization of the region. However, gaps in the fossil record mean that considerable uncertainty surrounds the magnitude and pattern of these extinctions. We use a Bayesian mark-recapture approach to model gaps in the fossil record and to quantify losses of nonpasserine landbirds on 41 Pacific islands. Two-thirds of the populations on these islands went extinct in the period between first human arrival and European contact, with extinction rates linked to island and species characteristics that increased susceptibility to hunting and habitat destruction. We calculate that human colonization of remote Pacific islands caused the global extinction of close to 1,000 species of nonpasserine landbird alone; nonpasserine seabird and passerine extinctions will add to this total. PMID:23530197

  20. Determining the extragalactic extinction law with SALT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finkelman, Ido; Brosch, Noah; Kniazev, Alexei Y.; Buckley, David A. H.; O'Donoghue, Darragh; Hashimoto, Yas; Loaring, Nicola; Romero-Colmenero, Encarni; Still, Martin; Sefako, Ramotholo; Väisänen, Petri

    2008-11-01

    We present CCD imaging observations of early-type galaxies with dark lanes obtained with the Southern African Large Telescope (SALT) during its performance-verification phase. The observations were performed in six spectral bands that span the spectral range from the near-ultraviolet atmospheric cut-off to the near-infrared. We derive the extinction law by the extragalactic dust in the dark lanes in the spectral range 1.11 < λ-1 < 2.94μm-1 by fitting model galaxies to the unextinguished parts of the image, and subtracting from these the actual images. This procedure allows the derivation, with reasonably high signal-to-noise ratio, of the extinction in each spectral band we used for each resolution element of the image. We also introduce an alternative method to derive the extinction values by comparing various colour-index maps under the assumption of negligible intrinsic colour gradients in these galaxies. We than compare the results obtained using these two methods. We compare the total-to-selective extinction derived for these galaxies with previously obtained results and with similar extinction values of Milky Way dust to derive conclusions about the properties of extragalactic dust in different objects and conditions. We find that the extinction curves run parallel to the Galactic extinction curve, which implies that the properties of dust in the extragalactic environment are similar to those of the Milky Way, despite our original expectations. The ratio of the total V-band extinction to the selective extinction between the V and B bands is derived for each galaxy with an average of 2.82 +/- 0.38, compared to a canonical value of 3.1 for the Milky Way. The similar values imply that galaxies with well-defined dark lanes have characteristic dust grain sizes similar to those of Galactic dust. We use total optical extinction values to estimate the dust mass for each galaxy, compare these with dust masses derived from IRAS measurements, and find them in the

  1. Abrupt climate change and extinction events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crowley, Thomas J.

    1988-01-01

    There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

  2. Revisiting the role of infralimbic cortex in fear extinction with optogenetics.

    PubMed

    Do-Monte, Fabricio H; Manzano-Nieves, Gabriela; Quiñones-Laracuente, Kelvin; Ramos-Medina, Liorimar; Quirk, Gregory J

    2015-02-25

    Previous rodent studies have implicated the infralimbic (IL) subregion of the medial prefrontal cortex in extinction of auditory fear conditioning. However, these studies used pharmacological inactivation or electrical stimulation techniques, which lack temporal precision and neuronal specificity. Here, we used an optogenetic approach to either activate (with channelrhodopsin) or silence (with halorhodopsin) glutamatergic IL neurons during conditioned tones delivered in one of two phases: extinction training or extinction retrieval. Activating IL neurons during extinction training reduced fear expression and strengthened extinction memory the following day. Silencing IL neurons during extinction training had no effect on within-session extinction, but impaired the retrieval of extinction the following day, indicating that IL activity during extinction tones is necessary for the formation of extinction memory. Surprisingly, however, silencing IL neurons optogenetically or pharmacologically during the retrieval of extinction 1 day or 1 week following extinction training had no effect. Our findings suggest that IL activity during extinction training likely facilitates storage of extinction in target structures, but contrary to current models, IL activity does not appear to be necessary for retrieval of extinction memory.

  3. Lessons from the past: Biotic recoveries from mass extinctions

    PubMed Central

    Erwin, Douglas H.

    2001-01-01

    Although mass extinctions probably account for the disappearance of less than 5% of all extinct species, the evolutionary opportunities they have created have had a disproportionate effect on the history of life. Theoretical considerations and simulations have suggested that the empty niches created by a mass extinction should refill rapidly after extinction ameliorates. Under logistic models, this biotic rebound should be exponential, slowing as the environmental carrying capacity is approached. Empirical studies reveal a more complex dynamic, including positive feedback and an exponential growth phase during recoveries. Far from a model of refilling ecospace, mass extinctions appear to cause a collapse of ecospace, which must be rebuilt during recovery. Other generalities include the absence of a clear correlation between the magnitude of extinction and the pace of recovery or the resulting ecological and evolutionary disruption the presence of a survival interval, with few originations, immediately after an extinction and preceding the recovery phase, and the presence of many lineages that persist through an extinction event only to disappear during the subsequent recovery. Several recoveries include numerous missing lineages, groups that are found before the extinction, then latter in the recovery, but are missing during the initial survival–recovery phase. The limited biogeographic studies of recoveries suggest considerable variability between regions. PMID:11344285

  4. Lumbar lordosis of extinct hominins.

    PubMed

    Been, Ella; Gómez-Olivencia, Asier; Kramer, Patricia A

    2012-01-01

    The lordotic curvature of the lumbar spine (lumbar lordosis) in humans is a critical component in the ability to achieve upright posture and bipedal gait. Only general estimates of the lordotic angle (LA) of extinct hominins are currently available, most of which are based on the wedging of the vertebral bodies. Recently, a new method for calculating the LA in skeletal material has become available. This method is based on the relationship between the lordotic curvature and the orientation of the inferior articular processes relative to vertebral bodies in the lumbar spines of living primates. Using this relationship, we developed new regression models in order to calculate the LAs in hominins. The new models are based on primate group-means and were used to calculate the LAs in the spines of eight extinct hominins. The results were also compared with the LAs of modern humans and modern nonhuman apes. The lordotic angles of australopithecines (41° ± 4), H. erectus (45°) and fossil H. sapiens (54° ± 14) are similar to those of modern humans (51° ± 11). This analysis confirms the assumption that human-like lordotic curvature was a morphological change that took place during the acquisition of erect posture and bipedalism as the habitual form of locomotion. Neandertals have smaller lordotic angles (LA = 29° ± 4) than modern humans, but higher angles than nonhuman apes (22° ± 3). This suggests possible subtle differences in Neandertal posture and locomotion from that of modern humans. PMID:22052243

  5. Lumbar lordosis of extinct hominins.

    PubMed

    Been, Ella; Gómez-Olivencia, Asier; Kramer, Patricia A

    2012-01-01

    The lordotic curvature of the lumbar spine (lumbar lordosis) in humans is a critical component in the ability to achieve upright posture and bipedal gait. Only general estimates of the lordotic angle (LA) of extinct hominins are currently available, most of which are based on the wedging of the vertebral bodies. Recently, a new method for calculating the LA in skeletal material has become available. This method is based on the relationship between the lordotic curvature and the orientation of the inferior articular processes relative to vertebral bodies in the lumbar spines of living primates. Using this relationship, we developed new regression models in order to calculate the LAs in hominins. The new models are based on primate group-means and were used to calculate the LAs in the spines of eight extinct hominins. The results were also compared with the LAs of modern humans and modern nonhuman apes. The lordotic angles of australopithecines (41° ± 4), H. erectus (45°) and fossil H. sapiens (54° ± 14) are similar to those of modern humans (51° ± 11). This analysis confirms the assumption that human-like lordotic curvature was a morphological change that took place during the acquisition of erect posture and bipedalism as the habitual form of locomotion. Neandertals have smaller lordotic angles (LA = 29° ± 4) than modern humans, but higher angles than nonhuman apes (22° ± 3). This suggests possible subtle differences in Neandertal posture and locomotion from that of modern humans.

  6. Radiocarbon chronology and environment of woolly mammoth ( Mammuthus primigenius Blum.) in northern Asia: results and perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuzmin, Yaroslav V.; Orlova, Lyobov A.

    2004-12-01

    This paper reviews the history of the woolly mammoth ( Mammuthus primigenius Blum.) in Siberia and adjacent northern Asia. The particular emphases are the chronology and environment of mammoth existence and extinction, based on about 530 radiocarbon dates from about 230 localities with mammoth remains and palaeoenvironmental records of the last 50,000 years. Until ca. 12,000 radiocarbon years ago (BP), mammoths inhabited all of northern Asia, from the High Arctic to southern Siberia and northeastern China. Since ca. 12,000 BP, mammoth disappeared from major parts of Siberia and adjacent northern Asia, and survived mainly in the Arctic regions of Siberia, north of 69° northern latitude. However, recently, it was found that some mammoth populations continued to exist in central and southern Western Siberia until ca. 11,100-10,200 BP. 'Normal' size mammoths became extinct in mainland Siberia at the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary, ca. 9700 BP. On Wrangel Island in the High Arctic, small-sized mammoths survived into the Middle-Late Holocene, ca. 7700-3700 BP. Compared with previous studies, it is now possible to reveal the complex nature of the process of final mammoth extinction in Siberia, with some small populations surviving outside of the Arctic until ca. 10,000 BP. The extinction of mammoth was most probably caused by a combination of factors, such as global warming in the Late Glacial (since ca. 15,000 BP) and the disintegration of landscapes suitable for mammoths throughout the Upper Pleistocene, such as light forests with vast open spaces occupied by meadows and forest tundra. The expansion of forest vegetation after the Last Glacial Maximum in Siberia, including its northeastern part, created unsuitable habitats for herbivorous megafauna, especially for mammoths. However, the Holocene environment of Wrangel Island was not of 'glacial' type and this requires further studies. The relationship between mammoths and Upper Palaeolithic humans is also considered. The

  7. Selecting for extinction: nonrandom disease-associated extinction homogenizes amphibian biotas.

    PubMed

    Smith, Kevin G; Lips, Karen R; Chase, Jonathan M

    2009-10-01

    Studying the patterns in which local extinctions occur is critical to understanding how extinctions affect biodiversity at local, regional and global spatial scales. To understand the importance of patterns of extinction at a regional spatial scale, we use data from extirpations associated with a widespread pathogenic agent of amphibian decline, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) as a model system. We apply novel null model analyses to these data to determine whether recent extirpations associated with Bd have resulted in selective extinction and homogenization of diverse tropical American amphibian biotas. We find that Bd-associated extinctions in this region were nonrandom and disproportionately, but not exclusively, affected low-occupancy and endemic species, resulting in homogenization of the remnant amphibian fauna. The pattern of extirpations also resulted in phylogenetic homogenization at the family level and ecological homogenization of reproductive mode and habitat association. Additionally, many more species were extirpated from the region than would be expected if extirpations occurred randomly. Our results indicate that amphibian declines in this region are an extinction filter, reducing regional amphibian biodiversity to highly similar relict assemblages and ultimately causing amplified biodiversity loss at regional and global scales.

  8. Biogeographic and bathymetric determinants of brachiopod extinction and survival during the Late Ordovician mass extinction.

    PubMed

    Finnegan, Seth; Rasmussen, Christian M Ø; Harper, David A T

    2016-04-27

    The Late Ordovician mass extinction (LOME) coincided with dramatic climate changes, but there are numerous ways in which these changes could have driven marine extinctions. We use a palaeobiogeographic database of rhynchonelliform brachiopods to examine the selectivity of Late Ordovician-Early Silurian genus extinctions and evaluate which extinction drivers are best supported by the data. The first (latest Katian) pulse of the LOME preferentially affected genera restricted to deeper waters or to relatively narrow (less than 35°) palaeolatitudinal ranges. This pattern is only observed in the latest Katian, suggesting that it reflects drivers unique to this interval. Extinction of exclusively deeper-water genera implies that changes in water mass properties such as dissolved oxygen content played an important role. Extinction of genera with narrow latitudinal ranges suggests that interactions between shifting climate zones and palaeobiogeography may also have been important. We test the latter hypothesis by estimating whether each genus would have been able to track habitats within its thermal tolerance range during the greenhouse-icehouse climate transition. Models including these estimates are favoured over alternative models. We argue that the LOME, long regarded as non-selective, is highly selective along biogeographic and bathymetric axes that are not closely correlated with taxonomic identity. PMID:27122567

  9. Deev Jahi Model of the Permian Triassic boundary mass extinction: a case for gas hydrates as the main cause of biological crisis on Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heydari, E.; Hassanzadeh, J.

    2003-12-01

    The smoking gun revealing the secrets of the end-Permian mass mortality is a unique 1-2-m-thick layer consisting of 5-20-cm-long crystals of calcite that occurs precisely at the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) in Iran, Armenia, Turkey, and China. This layer is interpreted as synsedimentary, abiotic, seafloor cement indicative of precipitation from a highly carbonate supersaturated seawater. Its δ13C composition ( δ13C=0‰ PDB) is 4‰ to 5‰ PDB lower than the typical Upper Permian values (4‰ to 5‰ PDB), suggesting the involvement of massive amounts of gas hydrate CH 4 ( δ13C=-60‰ PDB). The temporal coincidence of the cement layer with the PTB suggests that the process that promoted seafloor cementation was also responsible for the biological crisis. A cementation model is developed based on accumulation-dissociation cycle of gas hydrates which also explains the mass extinction at the PTB. The Upper Permian accumulation period of gas hydrates ended abruptly adjacent to the PTB and the dissociation event began releasing 3.2 to 4.7×10 18 g CH 4 into the ocean. Oxidation of CH 4 in the water column created a seawater that was charged with CO 2 (an oceanic acid bath) and had lower than normal O 2 content (but not anoxic). This oceanic acid bath first dissolved suspended fine-grained carbonate particles and small calcareous organisms, followed by extensive dissolution of platform carbonates raising Ca 2+ and HCO 3- concentrations of seawater. When the release of CH 4 declined, the acid-bath ocean became a soda ocean precipitating massive amount of seafloor cements observed globally at the PTB. The study suggests that prior to cement precipitation, the PTB ocean was charged with CO 2, warm, had low oxygen, high Ca 2+, and high HCO 3- concentrations. These conditions collectively created stressful conditions causing the marine mass mortality. The leakage of CH 4 to the atmosphere produced a super-hot climate resulting in the biological devastation on land. The

  10. Can extinction rates be estimated without fossils?

    PubMed

    Paradis, Emmanuel

    2004-07-01

    There is considerable interest in the possibility of using molecular phylogenies to estimate extinction rates. The present study aims at assessing the statistical performance of the birth-death model fitting approach to estimate speciation and extinction rates by comparison to the approach considering fossil data. A simulation-based approach was used. The diversification of a large number of lineages was simulated under a wide range of speciation and extinction rate values. The estimators obtained with fossils performed better than those without fossils. In the absence of fossils (e.g. with a molecular phylogeny), the speciation rate was correctly estimated in a wide range of situations; the bias of the corresponding estimator was close to zero for the largest trees. However, this estimator was substantially biased when the simulated extinction rate was high. On the other hand the estimator of extinction rate was biased in a wide range of situations. Surprisingly, this bias was lesser with medium-sized trees. Some recommendations for interpreting results from a diversification analysis are given.

  11. Recent fear is resistant to extinction.

    PubMed

    Maren, Stephen; Chang, Chun-hui

    2006-11-21

    In some individuals, fearful experiences (e.g., combat) yield persistent and debilitating psychological disturbances, including posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Early intervention (e.g., debriefing) after psychological trauma is widely practiced and argued to be an effective strategy for limiting subsequent psychopathology, although there has been considerable debate on this point. Here we show in an animal model of traumatic fear that early intervention shortly after an aversive experience yields poor long-term fear reduction. Extinction trials administered minutes after aversive fear conditioning in rats suppressed fear acutely, but fear suppression was not maintained the next day. In contrast, delivering extinction trials 1 day after fear conditioning produced an enduring suppression of fear memory. We further show that the recent experience of an aversive event, not the timing of the extinction intervention per se, inhibits the development of long-term fear extinction. These results reveal that the level of fear present at the time of intervention is a critical factor in the efficacy of extinction. Importantly, our work suggests that early intervention may not yield optimal outcomes in reducing posttraumatic stress, particularly after severe trauma.

  12. The loss of indirect interactions leads to cascading extinctions of carnivores.

    PubMed

    Sanders, Dirk; Sutter, Louis; van Veen, F J Frank

    2013-05-01

    Species extinctions are biased towards higher trophic levels, and primary extinctions are often followed by unexpected secondary extinctions. Currently, predictions on the vulnerability of ecological communities to extinction cascades are based on models that focus on bottom-up effects, which cannot capture the effects of extinctions at higher trophic levels. We show, in experimental insect communities, that harvesting of single carnivorous parasitoid species led to a significant increase in extinction rate of other parasitoid species, separated by four trophic links. Harvesting resulted in the release of prey from top-down control, leading to increased interspecific competition at the herbivore trophic level. This resulted in increased extinction rates of non-harvested parasitoid species when their host had become rare relative to other herbivores. The results demonstrate a mechanism for horizontal extinction cascades, and illustrate that altering the relationship between a predator and its prey can cause wide-ranging ripple effects through ecosystems, including unexpected extinctions. PMID:23445500

  13. The loss of indirect interactions leads to cascading extinctions of carnivores.

    PubMed

    Sanders, Dirk; Sutter, Louis; van Veen, F J Frank

    2013-05-01

    Species extinctions are biased towards higher trophic levels, and primary extinctions are often followed by unexpected secondary extinctions. Currently, predictions on the vulnerability of ecological communities to extinction cascades are based on models that focus on bottom-up effects, which cannot capture the effects of extinctions at higher trophic levels. We show, in experimental insect communities, that harvesting of single carnivorous parasitoid species led to a significant increase in extinction rate of other parasitoid species, separated by four trophic links. Harvesting resulted in the release of prey from top-down control, leading to increased interspecific competition at the herbivore trophic level. This resulted in increased extinction rates of non-harvested parasitoid species when their host had become rare relative to other herbivores. The results demonstrate a mechanism for horizontal extinction cascades, and illustrate that altering the relationship between a predator and its prey can cause wide-ranging ripple effects through ecosystems, including unexpected extinctions.

  14. On uncertain sightings and inference about extinction.

    PubMed

    Solow, Andrew R; Beet, Andrew R

    2014-08-01

    The extinction of many species can only be inferred from the record of sightings of individuals. Solow et al. (2012, Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. Conservation Biology 26:180-184) describe a Bayesian approach to such inference and apply it to a sighting record of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis). A feature of this sighting record is that all uncertain sightings occurred after the most recent certain sighting. However, this appears to be an artifact. We extended this earlier work in 2 ways. First, we allowed for overlap in time between certain and uncertain sightings. Second, we considered 2 plausible statistical models of a sighting record. In one of these models, certain and uncertain sightings that are valid arise from the same process whereas in the other they arise from independent processes. We applied both models to the case of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. The result from the first model did not favor extinction, whereas the result for the second model did. This underscores the importance, in applying tests for extinction, of understanding what could be called the natural history of the sighting record.

  15. Neural consequences of somatosensory extinction: an fMRI study.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Michiko; Takeda, Katsuhiko; Kaminaga, Tatsuro; Shimizu, Teruo; Iwata, Makoto

    2005-11-01

    There are currently two main interpretations proposing mechanisms underlying tactile extinction: sensory and attention deficit hypotheses. Kinsbourne proposed an opponent processor model to support the attention deficit hypothesis. He insisted that bilateral hemispheres interact reciprocally through contralaterally oriented vectors, and in patients presenting extinction, balance is impaired, causing inattention. From Kinsbourne's point of view, extinction is not caused by sensory disturbance but inattention, therefore even in extinction patients, simultaneous bilateral stimuli should reach the bilateral primary sensory cortices (SI). Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), tactile stimuli were administered to both hands of healthy subjects as well as a tactile extinction patient. The patient with tactile extinction extinguished right palm stimuli following simultaneous palm stimulation. During the fMRI study, we gave tactile stimuli to the right palm, the left palm, and simultaneously to both palms. In normal subjects, simultaneous bilateral stimuli activated the bilateral SI and bilateral secondary sensory cortices (SII). In the patient with right tactile extinction, simultaneous bilateral stimuli activated the bilateral SI along with the bilateral SII and right superior parietal lobule. Our study suggests that activation of SI is insufficient to engender an awareness of sensory stimuli. From the view point of Kinsbourne, stimulus driven activity in one hemisphere suppresses activity in the other hemisphere via callosal connections. Our results support the notion that an undamaged superior parietal lobule in the patient with tactile extinction suppresses the damaged parietal lobe function and causes extinction.

  16. Mass extinction caused by large bolide impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alvarez, Luis W.

    1987-01-01

    A history and development status assessment is presented for the hypothesis that the great extinction of living species 65 million years ago, at the boundary between the Tertiary and Cretaceous geological ages, was due to the collision of a meteoroid, asteroid, or comet with the earth. The initial, deeply suggestive indication of the extraterrestial origin of the extinction-initiating mechanism was the detection of an exceptionally high concentration of iridium at the stratigraphic position of the extinction. Detailed computer modeling of the atmospheric effect of such a bolide impact has shown that the earth would have first grown intensely cold during a period of darkness due to particulate debris clouds in the upper atmosphere, followed by an enormous increase in global temperatures as the debris cleared, created by the persistence of greenhouse-effect gases; this heating would have been especially lethal to numerous forms of life.

  17. Neurofibromatosis: chronological history and current issues*

    PubMed Central

    Antônio, João Roberto; Goloni-Bertollo, Eny Maria; Trídico, Lívia Arroyo

    2013-01-01

    Neurofibromatosis, which was first described in 1882 by Von Recklinghausen, is a genetic disease characterized by a neuroectodermal abnormality and by clinical manifestations of systemic and progressive involvement which mainly affect the skin, nervous system, bones, eyes and possibly other organs. The disease may manifest in several ways and it can vary from individual to individual. Given the wealth of information about neurofibromatosis, we attempted to present this information in different ways. In the first part of this work, we present a chronological history, which describes the evolution of the disease since the early publications about the disorder until the conclusion of this work, focusing on relevant aspects which can be used by those wishing to investigate this disease. In the second part, we present an update on the various aspects that constitute this disease. PMID:23793209

  18. A refined chronology of prehistoric Madagascar and the demise of the megafauna

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crowley, Brooke E.

    2010-09-01

    The vertebrate community of Madagascar is one of the most unique and diverse on Earth, yet faunal diversity today is just a fraction of that present in the Pleistocene and Early Holocene. An understanding of the chronology of extinction relative to climate change and anthropogenic factors is essential to test hypotheses for extinction. Here, I combine over 200 new radiocarbon dates with published 14C dates from extinct and extant subfossil vertebrates. These new data provide evidence for the prolonged existence of both extant and extinct endemic terrestrial vertebrate species well before human arrival, with habitation of some localities extending back before the Last Glacial Maximum. I analyze the data for patterns among body sizes and ecoregions in relation to four major historical events: human arrival (ca 2500 years ago), establishment of human settlements (ca 1500 years ago), Late Holocene aridification (peaking ca 1000 years ago), and European arrival (ca 500 years ago). Patterns in endemic species abundance after human arrival differ depending on body size and geographic location. Within the first 500 years after human arrival, there were population declines in (1) very large species (>150 kg) and large species (10-150 kg) in the Dry Deciduous Forest, (2) large species in the Central Highlands, and (3) very large species in the Spiny Thicket. This first pulse of declines was likely triggered by human predation. Large species continued to be well represented in the Spiny Thicket and Succulent Woodland until ca 1000 years ago, when their populations plummeted. This second pulse of declines may have been solely triggered by continued human predation, or it may have resulted from a combination of increasing Late Holocene aridity and human impacts in the form of hunting and habitat modification. The abundance of endemic animals weighing <10 kg increased dramatically in the aftermath of the decline in large-bodied species.

  19. Time and Chronology: Conjoined Twins or Distant Cousins?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blow, Frances; Lee, Peter; Shemilt, Denis

    2012-01-01

    Weaknesses in pupils' grasp of historical chronology are a commonplace in popular discussion of the state of history education. However, as Blow, Lee and Shemilt argue, although undoubtedly necessary and fundamental, mastery of chronological conventions is not sufficient: the difficulties that pupils experience when learning history are…

  20. Marshall Space Flight Center 1989 annual chronology of events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, Michael

    1990-01-01

    A chronological listing of the major events for the Marshall Space Flight Center for the calendar year 1989 is provided. The MSFC Historian, Management Operations Office, compiled the chronology from various sources and from supplemental information provided by the major MSFC organizations.

  1. A Musical Chronology and the Emerging Life Song

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffey, Thelma

    2005-01-01

    This article describes an intervention used by the author in her clinical practice. Some clients have a need to resolve relationship issues. "A Musical Chronology" has been a helpful resource for this work. Through the chronology, clients examine their life/love stories, share these stories with their therapist, and work through grief or other…

  2. Implementation of counted layers for coherent ice core chronology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemieux-Dudon, B.; Bazin, L.; Landais, A.; Toyé Mahamadou Kele, H.; Guillevic, M.; Kindler, P.; Parrenin, F.; Martinerie, P.

    2015-06-01

    A recent coherent chronology has been built for four Antarctic ice cores and the NorthGRIP (NGRIP) Greenland ice core (Antarctic Ice Core Chronology 2012, AICC2012) using a Bayesian approach for ice core dating (Datice). When building the AICC2012 chronology, and in order to prevent any confusion with official ice core chronology, the AICC2012 chronology for NGRIP was forced to fit exactly the GICC05 chronology based on layer counting. However, such a strong tuning did not satisfy the hypothesis of independence of background parameters and observations for the NGRIP core, as required by Datice. We present here the implementation in Datice of a new type of markers that is better suited for constraints deduced from layer counting: the duration constraints. Estimating the global error on chronology due to such markers is not straightforward and implies some assumption on the correlation between individual counting errors for each interval of duration. We validate this new methodological implementation by conducting twin experiments and a posteriori diagnostics on the NGRIP ice core. Several sensitivity tests on marker sampling and correlation between counting errors were performed to provide some guidelines when using such a method for future dating experiments. Finally, using these markers for NGRIP in a five-core dating exercise with Datice leads to new chronologies that do not differ by more than 410 years from AICC2012 for Antarctic ice cores and 150 years from GICC05 for NGRIP over the last 60 000 years.

  3. Marshall Space Flight Center 1990 annual chronology of events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, Michael

    1991-01-01

    A chronological listing is provided of the major events for the Marshall Space Flight Center for the calendar year 1990. The MSFC Historian, Management Operations Office, compiled the chronology from various sources and from supplemental information provided by the major MSFC organizations.

  4. Chronology of KSC and KSC-related events for 1985

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nail, Ken, Jr.; Liston, Elaine

    1986-01-01

    A chronology of developments and events at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in 1985 documents the KSC role in NASA's progress. The chronology serves as a reference source for historians and other researchers. Arrangement is by day and month. Individual articles are attributed to published sources.

  5. Jewish Holocaust Histories and the Work of Chronological Narratives

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Silverstein, Jordana

    2012-01-01

    This article examines the ways that, in Holocaust education in Jewish schools in Melbourne and New York at the beginning of the 21st century, knowledge of the Holocaust is transferred to students in chronological form. It begins by asking: What work do chronological narratives do within the Holocaust historical narratives offered within Jewish…

  6. Attentional, Associative, and Configural Mechanisms in Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larrauri, Jose A.; Schmajuk, Nestor A.

    2008-01-01

    The participation of attentional and associative mechanisms in extinction, spontaneous recovery, external disinhibition, renewal, reinstatement, and reacquisition was evaluated through computer simulations with an extant computational model of classical conditioning (N. A. Schmajuk, Y. Lam, & J. A. Gray, 1996; N. A. Schmajuk & J. A. Larrauri,…

  7. A Comprehensive Quantitative Assessment of Bird Extinction Risk in Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Machado, Nathália; Loyola, Rafael Dias

    2013-01-01

    In an effort to avoid species loss, scientists have focused their efforts on the mechanisms making some species more prone to extinction than others. However, species show different responses to threats given their evolutionary history, behavior, and intrinsic biological features. We used bird biological features and external threats to (1) understand the multiple pathways driving Brazilian bird species to extinction, (2) to investigate if and how extinction risk is geographically structured, and (3) to quantify how much diversity is currently represented inside protected areas. We modeled the extinction risk of 1557 birds using classification trees and evaluated the relative contribution of each biological feature and external threat in predicting extinction risk. We also quantified the proportion of species and their geographic range currently protected by the network of Brazilian protected areas. The optimal classification tree showed different pathways to bird extinction. Habitat conversion was the most important predictor driving extinction risk though other variables, such as geographic range size, type of habitat, hunting or trapping and trophic guild, were also relevant in our models. Species under higher extinction risk were concentrated mainly in the Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot and were not quite represented inside protected areas, neither in richness nor range. Predictive models could assist conservation actions, and this study could contribute by highlighting the importance of natural history and ecology in these actions. PMID:23951302

  8. [Metric and angular variables of the mandibular ramus on panoramic radiographs, as indicators for chronologic age].

    PubMed

    Espina-Fereira, Angela; Ortega, Ana Isabel; Barrios, Fernando Alonso; Maldonado, Yadelsy Jackelina; Fereira, José Luis

    2007-12-01

    This paper had as goals to identify the presence of age indicators in the mandibular ramus and to study their applicability in estimating the chronological age of children between the ages of 6 and 12 years. For this, a sample of 128 individuals (70 males and 58 females) was selected, all without chronic or acute sicknesses. An evaluation was made of the metric and angular variables of the mandibular ramus on panoramic radiographs of the oral cavity. The Greulich-Pyle method was applied to estimate the skeletal age, and the Demirjian et al. method was applied to estimate the dental age. A positive correlation, statistically significant, could be observed between the metric variables studied and the chronological age; nevertheless, the angular variables did not show correlation with the chronological age. Regression models were built using metric variables of the mandibular ramus in order to estimate the age, which made a significant contribution to the calculation of the age. A consistent subestimation of the skeletal age and an overestimation of the dental age were found in both sexes. It was evident that a combination of the dental age, the skeletal age and the metric variables obtained in the mandibular ramus, increases the precision for calculating the chronological age, when compared to separate-made estimations of the dental and skeletal age. The proposed regression models can be used for estimating the age of cadavers in advanced states of decomposition and in living individuals without valid identification documents.

  9. [Metric and angular variables of the mandibular ramus on panoramic radiographs, as indicators for chronologic age].

    PubMed

    Espina-Fereira, Angela; Ortega, Ana Isabel; Barrios, Fernando Alonso; Maldonado, Yadelsy Jackelina; Fereira, José Luis

    2007-12-01

    This paper had as goals to identify the presence of age indicators in the mandibular ramus and to study their applicability in estimating the chronological age of children between the ages of 6 and 12 years. For this, a sample of 128 individuals (70 males and 58 females) was selected, all without chronic or acute sicknesses. An evaluation was made of the metric and angular variables of the mandibular ramus on panoramic radiographs of the oral cavity. The Greulich-Pyle method was applied to estimate the skeletal age, and the Demirjian et al. method was applied to estimate the dental age. A positive correlation, statistically significant, could be observed between the metric variables studied and the chronological age; nevertheless, the angular variables did not show correlation with the chronological age. Regression models were built using metric variables of the mandibular ramus in order to estimate the age, which made a significant contribution to the calculation of the age. A consistent subestimation of the skeletal age and an overestimation of the dental age were found in both sexes. It was evident that a combination of the dental age, the skeletal age and the metric variables obtained in the mandibular ramus, increases the precision for calculating the chronological age, when compared to separate-made estimations of the dental and skeletal age. The proposed regression models can be used for estimating the age of cadavers in advanced states of decomposition and in living individuals without valid identification documents. PMID:18271388

  10. Quality assessment of chronologies in Latin American pollen records: a contribution to centennial to millennial scale studies of environmental change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flantua, S. G. A.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Blaauw, M.

    2015-04-01

    The newly updated inventory of the Latin American Pollen Database (LAPD) offers an important overview of data available for multi-proxy and multi-site purposes. However, heterogeneous paleoecological databases are not suitable to be integrated without an uncertainty assessment of existing chronologies. Therefore, we collected all chronological control points and age model metadata from the LAPD literature to create a complementary chronological database of 5116 dates from 1097 pollen records. We start with an overview on chronological dating and reporting in Central and South America. Specific problems and recommendations for chronology reporting are discussed. Subsequently, we implement a temporal quality assessment of pollen records from northwest South-America to support research on climate forcers and responses at a centennial-millennial time-scale. New chronologies are generated for 233 pollen records based on updated calibration curves. Different time windows are discussed on sample resolution and temporal uncertainty. Approximately one in four pollen diagrams depicts < 500 years resolution data at the Younger Dryas/Holocene transition. Overall, our analyses suggest that the temporal resolution of multi-site syntheses of late Pleistocene fossil pollen records in the northwest South-America is ca. 240 years, a resolution which allows analysis of ecological responses to centennial-millennial-scale climate change during the last deglaciation.

  11. The Italians in America, 1492-1972: A Chronology and Fact Book. Ethnic Chronology Series, Number 4.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    LoGatto, Anthony F., Comp.

    Contents of this chronology and fact book include the following: (i) Editor's foreword; (ii) Chronology; (iii) Twenty-one documents, ranging from "Charter granting Christopher Columbus the Prerogatives and Privileges of his Voyage--April 30, 1492," to "On the Care of Migrants," issued by Pope Paul VI on August 22, 1969; Nine appendices, including:…

  12. Chronic stress disrupts fear extinction and enhances amygdala and hippocampal Fos expression in an animal model of post-traumatic stress disorder.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Ann N; Lorson, Nickolaus G; Sanabria, Federico; Foster Olive, M; Conrad, Cheryl D

    2014-07-01

    Chronic stress may impose a vulnerability to develop maladaptive fear-related behaviors after a traumatic event. Whereas previous work found that chronic stress impairs the acquisition and recall of extinguished fear, it is unknown how chronic stress impacts nonassociative fear, such as in the absence of the conditioned stimulus (CS) or in a novel context. Male rats were subjected to chronic stress (STR; wire mesh restraint 6 h/d/21d) or undisturbed (CON), then tested on fear acquisition (3 tone-footshock pairings), and two extinction sessions (15 tones/session) within the same context. Then each group was tested (6 tones) in the same context (SAME) or a novel context (NOVEL), and brains were processed for functional activation using Fos immunohistochemistry. Compared to CON, STR showed facilitated fear acquisition, resistance to CS extinction on the first extinction day, and robust recovery of fear responses on the second extinction day. STR also showed robust freezing to the context alone during the first extinction day compared to CON. When tested in the same or a novel context, STR exhibited higher freezing to context than did CON, suggesting that STR-induced fear was independent of context. In support of this, STR showed increased Fos-like expression in the basolateral amygdala and CA1 region of the hippocampus in both the SAME and NOVEL contexts. Increased Fos-like expression was also observed in the central amygdala in STR-NOVEL vs. CON-NOVEL. These data demonstrate that chronic stress enhances fear learning and impairs extinction, and affects nonassociative processes as demonstrated by enhanced fear in a novel context.

  13. Extinction in human fear conditioning.

    PubMed

    Hermans, Dirk; Craske, Michelle G; Mineka, Susan; Lovibond, Peter F

    2006-08-15

    Although most extinction research is conducted in animal laboratories, the study of extinction learning in human fear conditioning has gained increasing attention over the last decade. The most important findings from human fear extinction are reviewed in this article. Specifically, we review experimental investigations of the impact of conditioned inhibitors, conditioned exciters, context renewal, and reinstatement on fear extinction in human samples. We discuss data from laboratory studies of the extinction of aversively conditioned stimuli, as well as results from experimental clinical work with fearful or anxious individuals. We present directions for future research, in particular the need for further investigation of differences between animal and human conditioning outcomes, and research examining the role of both automatic and higher-order cognitive processes in human conditioning and extinction.

  14. High-precision timeline for Earth's most severe extinction.

    PubMed

    Burgess, Seth D; Bowring, Samuel; Shen, Shu-zhong

    2014-03-01

    The end-Permian mass extinction was the most severe loss of marine and terrestrial biota in the last 542 My. Understanding its cause and the controls on extinction/recovery dynamics depends on an accurate and precise age model. U-Pb zircon dates for five volcanic ash beds from the Global Stratotype Section and Point for the Permian-Triassic boundary at Meishan, China, define an age model for the extinction and allow exploration of the links between global environmental perturbation, carbon cycle disruption, mass extinction, and recovery at millennial timescales. The extinction occurred between 251.941 ± 0.037 and 251.880 ± 0.031 Mya, an interval of 60 ± 48 ka. Onset of a major reorganization of the carbon cycle immediately precedes the initiation of extinction and is punctuated by a sharp (3‰), short-lived negative spike in the isotopic composition of carbonate carbon. Carbon cycle volatility persists for ∼500 ka before a return to near preextinction values. Decamillenial to millennial level resolution of the mass extinction and its aftermath will permit a refined evaluation of the relative roles of rate-dependent processes contributing to the extinction, allowing insight into postextinction ecosystem expansion, and establish an accurate time point for evaluating the plausibility of trigger and kill mechanisms. PMID:24516148

  15. Environmental factors influence lesser scaup migration chronology and population monitoring

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Finger, Taylor A.; Afton, Alan D.; Schummer, Michael L.; Petrie, Scott A.; Badzinski, Shannon S.; Johnson, Michael A.; Szymanski, Michael L.; Jacobs, Kevin J.; Olsen, Glenn H.; Mitchell, Mark

    2016-01-01

    Identifying environmental metrics specific to lesser scaup (Aythya affinis; scaup) spring migration chronology may help inform development of conservation, management and population monitoring. Our objective was to determine how environmental conditions influence spring migration of lesser scaup to assess the effectiveness of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey in accurately estimating scaup populations. We first compared peak timing of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and scaup migration from weekly ground surveys in North Dakota, USA because the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey is designed to capture annual mallard migration. As predicted, we detected that peak timing of scaup and mallard migrations differed in 25 of 36 years investigated (1980–2010). We marked scaup with satellite transmitters (n = 78; 7,403 locations) at Long Point, Lake Erie, Ontario, Canada; Pool 19 of the Mississippi River, Iowa and Illinois, USA; and Presque Isle Bay, Lake Erie, Pennsylvania, USA. We tested the assumption that our marked scaup were representative of the continental population using the traditional survey area by comparing timing of migration of marked birds and scaup counted in the North Dakota Game and Fish Department survey. We detected a strong positive correlation between marked scaup and the survey data, which indicated that marked scaup were representative of the population. We subsequently used our validated sample of marked scaup to investigate the effects of annual variation in temperature, precipitation, and ice cover on spring migration chronology in the traditional and eastern survey areas of the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey, 2005–2010. We evaluated competing environmental models to explain variation in timing and rate of scaup migration at large-scale and local levels. Spring migration of scaup occurred earlier and faster during springs with warmer temperatures and greater precipitation, variables known

  16. Variation of the extinction law in the Trifid nebula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cambrésy, L.; Rho, J.; Marshall, D. J.; Reach, W. T.

    2011-03-01

    Context. In the past few years, the extinction law has been measured in the infrared wavelengths for various molecular clouds and different laws have been obtained. Aims: In this paper we seek variations of the extinction law within the Trifid nebula region. Such variations would demonstrate local dust evolution linked to variation of the environment parameters such as the density or the interstellar radiation field. Methods: The extinction values, Aλ/AV, are obtained using the 2MASS, UKIDSS and Spitzer/GLIMPSE surveys. The technique is to inter-calibrate color-excess maps from different wavelengths to derive the extinction law and to map the extinction in the Trifid region. Results: We measured the extinction law at 3.6, 4.5, and 5.8 μm and we found a transition at AV ≈ 20 mag. Below this threshold the extinction law is as expected from models for RV = 5.5 whereas above 20 mag of visual extinction, it is flatter. Using these results the color-excess maps are converted into a composite extinction map of the Trifid nebula at a spatial resolution of 1 arcmin. A tridimensional analysis along the line-of-sight allowed us to estimate a distance of 2.7 ± 0.5 kpc for the Trifid. The comparison of the extinction with the 1.25 mm emission suggests the millimeter emissivity is enhanced in the dense condensations of the cloud. Conclusions: Our results suggest a dust transition at large extinction which has not been reported so far as well as dust emissivity variations.

  17. The impact of mass extinctions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Flessa, Karl W.

    1988-01-01

    In the years since Snowbird an explosive growth of research on the patterns, causes, and consequences of extinction was seen. The fossil record of extinction is better known, stratigraphic sections were scrutinized in great detail, and additional markers of environmental change were discovered in the rock record. However flawed, the fossil record is the only record that exists of natural extinction. Compilations from the primary literature contain a faint periodic signal: the extinctions of the past 250 my may be regulary spaced. The reality of the periodicity remains a subject for debate. The implications of periodicity are so profound that the debate is sure to continue. The greater precision from stratigraphic sections spanning extinction events has yet to resolve controversies concerning the rates at which extinctions occurred. Some sections seem to record sudden terminations, while others suggest gradual or steplike environmental deterioration. Unfortunately, the manner in which the strata record extinctions and compile stratigraphic ranges makes a strictly literal reading of the fossil record inadvisable. Much progress was made in the study of mass extinctions. The issues are more sharply defined but they are not fully resolved. Scenarios should look back to the phenomena they purport to explain - not just an iridium-rich layer, but the complex fabric of a mass extinction.

  18. Periodicity in marine extinction events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sepkoski, J. John, Jr.; Raup, David M.

    1986-01-01

    The periodicity of extinction events is examined in detail. In particular, the temporal distribution of specific, identifiable extinction events is analyzed. The nature and limitations of the data base on the global fossil record is discussed in order to establish limits of resolution in statistical analyses. Peaks in extinction intensity which appear to differ significantly from background levels are considered, and new analyses of the temporal distribution of these peaks are presented. Finally, some possible causes of periodicity and of interdependence among extinction events over the last quarter billion years of earth history are examined.

  19. Extinction and recolonization of maritime Antarctica in the limpet Nacella concinna (Strebel, 1908) during the last glacial cycle: toward a model of Quaternary biogeography in shallow Antarctic invertebrates.

    PubMed

    González-Wevar, C A; Saucède, T; Morley, S A; Chown, S L; Poulin, E

    2013-10-01

    Quaternary glaciations in Antarctica drastically modified geographical ranges and population sizes of marine benthic invertebrates and thus affected the amount and distribution of intraspecific genetic variation. Here, we present new genetic information in the Antarctic limpet Nacella concinna, a dominant Antarctic benthic species along shallow ice-free rocky ecosystems. We examined the patterns of genetic diversity and structure in this broadcast spawner along maritime Antarctica and from the peri-Antarctic island of South Georgia. Genetic analyses showed that N. concinna represents a single panmictic unit in maritime Antarctic. Low levels of genetic diversity characterized this population; its median-joining haplotype network revealed a typical star-like topology with a short genealogy and a dominant haplotype broadly distributed. As previously reported with nuclear markers, we detected significant genetic differentiation between South Georgia Island and maritime Antarctica populations. Higher levels of genetic diversity, a more expanded genealogy and the presence of more private haplotypes support the hypothesis of glacial persistence in this peri-Antarctic island. Bayesian Skyline plot and mismatch distribution analyses recognized an older demographic history in South Georgia. Approximate Bayesian computations did not support the persistence of N. concinna along maritime Antarctica during the last glacial period, but indicated the resilience of the species in peri-Antarctic refugia (South Georgia Island). We proposed a model of Quaternary Biogeography for Antarctic marine benthic invertebrates with shallow and narrow bathymetric ranges including (i) extinction of maritime Antarctic populations during glacial periods; (ii) persistence of populations in peri-Antarctic refugia; and (iii) recolonization of maritime Antarctica following the deglaciation process.

  20. Walking to Olympus: An EVA Chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Portree, David S. F.; Trevino, Robert C.

    1997-01-01

    Spacewalkers enjoy a view of Earth once reserved for Apollo, Zeus, and other denizens of Mt. Olympus. During humanity's first extravehicular activity (EVA), Alexei Leonov floated above Gibraltar, the rock ancient seafarers saw as the gateway to the great unknown Atlantic. The symbolism was clear, Leonov stepped past a new Gibraltar when he stepped into space. More than 32 years and 154 EVAs later, Jerry Linenger conducted an EVA with Vladimir Tsibliyev as part of International Space Station Phase 1. They floated together above Gibraltar. Today the symbolism has new meaning: humanity is starting to think of stepping out of Earth orbit, space travel's new Gibraltar, and perhaps obtaining a new olympian view, a close-up look at Olympus Mons on Mars. Walking to Olympus: An EVA Chronology chronicles the 154 EVAs conducted from March 1965 to April 1997. It is intended to make clear the crucial role played by EVA in the history of spaceflight, as well as to chronicle the large body of EVA "lessons learned." Russia and the U.S. define EVA differently. Russian cosmonauts are said to perform EVA any time they are in vacuum in a space suit. A U.S. astronaut must have at least his head outside his spacecraft before he is said to perform an EVA. The difference is based in differing spacecraft design philoso- phies. Russian and Soviet spacecraft have always had a specialized airlock through which the EVA cosmonaut egressed, leaving the main habitable volume of the spacecraft pressurized. The U.S. Gemini and Apollo vehicles, on the other hand, depressurized their entire habitable volume for egress. In this document, we apply the Russian definition to Russian EVAS, and the U.S. definition to U.S. EVAS. Thus, for example, Gemini 4 Command Pilot James McDivitt does not share the honor of being first American spacewalker with Ed White, even though he was suited and in vacuum when White stepped out into space. Non-EVA spaceflights are listed in the chronology to provide context and to

  1. The pharmacology of extinction.

    PubMed

    Huxtable, R J

    1992-08-01

    It is impossible to predict what compounds of pharmacological interest may be present in an unexamined species. The extinction of such species may result, therefore, in the loss of therapeutically significant compounds. The fact that science will never know what has been lost does not lessen the significance of the loss. A number of species are discussed to exemplify the potential loss. Ginkgo biloba is an ancient plant, apparently saved from a natural extinction by human intervention. From this tree, the ginkgolides have been isolated. These are potent inhibitors of platelet activating factor and hold promise in the treatment of cerebral ischemia and brain edema. Two species, the tree Taxus brevifolia and the leech Hirudo medicinalis, are threatened as a result of human activity. Both have recently yielded complex compounds of therapeutic importance. The antitumor agent, taxol, is obtained from T. brevifolia and the thrombin inhibitor, hirudin, is found in H. medicinalis. Catharanthus roseus, source of the anticancer agents vincristine and vinblastine, although not threatened, derives from a largely unexamined but severely stressed ecosystem of some 5000 plant species. In other examples, ethnobotanical knowledge of certain plants may be lost while the species survive, as exemplified by the suppression of the Aztec ethnobotany of Mesoamerica by the invading Spanish. Finally, the fallacy of the 'snail darter syndrome', where species may be viewed as too insignificant to worry about, is exposed by consideration of the pharmacological activities of a sea hare (a shell-less marine mollusc) and various leeches.

  2. Quantitative and qualitative approaches to identifying migration chronology in a continental migrant

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beatty, William S.; Kesler, Dylan C.; Webb, Elisabeth B.; Raedeke, Andrew H.; Naylor, Luke W.; Humburg, Dale D.

    2013-01-01

    The degree to which extrinsic factors influence migration chronology in North American waterfowl has not been quantified, particularly for dabbling ducks. Previous studies have examined waterfowl migration using various methods, however, quantitative approaches to define avian migration chronology over broad spatio-temporal scales are limited, and the implications for using different approaches have not been assessed. We used movement data from 19 female adult mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) equipped with solar-powered global positioning system satellite transmitters to evaluate two individual level approaches for quantifying migration chronology. The first approach defined migration based on individual movements among geopolitical boundaries (state, provincial, international), whereas the second method modeled net displacement as a function of time using nonlinear models. Differences in migration chronologies identified by each of the approaches were examined with analysis of variance. The geopolitical method identified mean autumn migration midpoints at 15 November 2010 and 13 November 2011, whereas the net displacement method identified midpoints at 15 November 2010 and 14 November 2011. The mean midpoints for spring migration were 3 April 2011 and 20 March 2012 using the geopolitical method and 31 March 2011 and 22 March 2012 using the net displacement method. The duration, initiation date, midpoint, and termination date for both autumn and spring migration did not differ between the two individual level approaches. Although we did not detect differences in migration parameters between the different approaches, the net displacement metric offers broad potential to address questions in movement ecology for migrating species. Ultimately, an objective definition of migration chronology will allow researchers to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the extrinsic factors that drive migration at the individual and population levels. As a result, targeted

  3. Stressor controllability modulates fear extinction in humans

    PubMed Central

    Hartley, Catherine A.; Gorun, Alyson; Reddan, Marianne C.; Ramirez, Franchesca; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

    2014-01-01

    Traumatic events are proposed to play a role in the development of anxiety disorders, however not all individuals exposed to extreme stress experience a pathological increase in fear. Recent studies in animal models suggest that the degree to which one is able to control an aversive experience is a critical factor determining its behavioral consequences. In this study, we examined whether stressor controllability modulates subsequent conditioned fear expression in humans. Participants were randomly assigned to an escapable stressor condition, a yoked inescapable stressor condition, or a control condition involving no stress exposure. One week later, all participants underwent fear conditioning, fear extinction, and a test of extinction retrieval the following day. Participants exposed to inescapable stress showed impaired fear extinction learning and increased fear expression the following day. In contrast, escapable stress improved fear extinction and prevented the spontaneous recovery of fear. Consistent with the bidirectional controllability effects previously reported in animal models, these results suggest that one's degree of control over aversive experiences may be an important factor influencing the development of psychological resilience or vulnerability in humans. PMID:24333646

  4. Stressor controllability modulates fear extinction in humans.

    PubMed

    Hartley, Catherine A; Gorun, Alyson; Reddan, Marianne C; Ramirez, Franchesca; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2014-09-01

    Traumatic events are proposed to play a role in the development of anxiety disorders, however not all individuals exposed to extreme stress experience a pathological increase in fear. Recent studies in animal models suggest that the degree to which one is able to control an aversive experience is a critical factor determining its behavioral consequences. In this study, we examined whether stressor controllability modulates subsequent conditioned fear expression in humans. Participants were randomly assigned to an escapable stressor condition, a yoked inescapable stressor condition, or a control condition involving no stress exposure. One week later, all participants underwent fear conditioning, fear extinction, and a test of extinction retrieval the following day. Participants exposed to inescapable stress showed impaired fear extinction learning and increased fear expression the following day. In contrast, escapable stress improved fear extinction and prevented the spontaneous recovery of fear. Consistent with the bidirectional controllability effects previously reported in animal models, these results suggest that one's degree of control over aversive experiences may be an important factor influencing the development of psychological resilience or vulnerability in humans.

  5. AMS 14C and OSL/IRSL dating of the Dunaszekcső loess sequence (Hungary): chronology for 20 to 150 ka and implications for establishing reliable age-depth models for the last 40 ka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Újvári, Gábor; Molnár, Mihály; Novothny, Ágnes; Páll-Gergely, Barna; Kovács, János; Várhegyi, András

    2014-12-01

    As revealed by 18 AMS radiocarbon and 24 OSL/IRSL ages the Dunaszekcső loess-paleosol sequence is an excellent terrestrial record of paleoenvironmental change in the Carpathian Basin for the last 130 ka, with significant soil forming episodes during the Eemian interglacial (130-115 ka, MIS 5e) and in some subsequent MIS 5 stages, and distinct periods of loess accumulations during the MIS 4 and MIS 2. Charcoals from the sequence made it possible to test the accuracy of 14C ages from mollusc shells. This approach revealed that 14C ages from some gastropods having small shells (<10 mm) (Succinella oblonga, Vitrea crystallina) are statistically indistinguishable from the ages of charcoals, while others (Clausiliidae sp., Chondrula tridens) show age anomalies up to 600-800 years. OSL and pIRIR@290 ages are found to be consistently older, while post-IR OSL ages are younger than the 14C ages from charcoals and molluscs by some thousands of years, except for pIRIR@225 ages that match the radiocarbon ages quite well. OSL and IRSL ages have scatters up to 7-10 thousand years within 40 ka, while charcoals and small molluscs yield consistent ages with relatively low variability. Beyond the observation that some small molluscs seem to yield reliable 14C ages, calibrated 2σ age ranges of the radiocarbon data (ca 500-800 years for 20 to 30 ka) are an order of magnitude narrower than those of the OSL/IRSL methods (1800-4000 years for 25 to 35 ka). Thus, for establishing chronologies within 40 ka, which are both accurate and precise enough to address issues like synchroneity of millennial-scale paleoenvironmental events across regions (e.g. North Atlantic and Europe), AMS radiocarbon dating of shells of specific loess molluscs and charcoals may probably be a powerful chronological tool. However, additional work is definitely required involving 14C and OSL/IRSL dates from other loess sequences to further test the performance of these two supposedly robust chronometers.

  6. Ultraviolet photometry from the Orbiting Astronomical Observatory. II Interstellar extinction.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bless, R. C.; Savage, B. D.

    1972-01-01

    Evaluation of interstellar extinction curves over the region from 3600 to 1100 A for 17 stars. The observations were made by the two Wisconsin spectrometers on board the Orbiting Astronomical Observatory 2, with spectral resolutions of 10 and 20 A. The extinction curves generally show a pronounced maximum at 2175 plus or minus 25 A, a broad minimum in the region from 1800 to 1350 A, and finally a rapid rise to the far-ultraviolet. Large extinction variations from star to star are found, especially in the far-ultraviolet; however, with only two possible exceptions in this sample, the wavelength at the maximum of the extinction bump is essentially constant. These data are combined with visual and infrared observations to display the extinction behavior over a range in wavelength of about a factor of 20. The observations appear to require a multicomponent model of the interstellar dust.

  7. Maximal Sensitive Dependence and the Optimal Path to Epidemic Extinction

    PubMed Central

    Forgoston, Eric; Bianco, Simone; Shaw, Leah B.; Schwartz, Ira B.

    2010-01-01

    Extinction of an epidemic or a species is a rare event that occurs due to a large, rare stochastic fluctuation. Although the extinction process is dynamically unstable, it follows an optimal path that maximizes the probability of extinction. We show that the optimal path is also directly related to the finite-time Lyapunov exponents of the underlying dynamical system in that the optimal path displays maximum sensitivity to initial conditions. We consider several stochastic epidemic models, and examine the extinction process in a dynamical systems framework. Using the dynamics of the finite-time Lyapunov exponents as a constructive tool, we demonstrate that the dynamical systems viewpoint of extinction evolves naturally toward the optimal path. PMID:20352495

  8. The role of the medial prefrontal cortex in trace fear extinction

    PubMed Central

    Kwapis, Janine L.; Jarome, Timothy J.

    2015-01-01

    The extinction of delay fear conditioning relies on a neural circuit that has received much attention and is relatively well defined. Whether this established circuit also supports the extinction of more complex associations, however, is unclear. Trace fear conditioning is a better model of complex relational learning, yet the circuit that supports extinction of this memory has received very little attention. Recent research has indicated that trace fear extinction requires a different neural circuit than delay extinction; trace extinction requires the participation of the retrosplenial cortex, but not the amygdala, as noted in a previous study. Here, we tested the roles of the prelimbic and infralimbic regions of the medial prefrontal cortex in trace and delay fear extinction by blocking NMDA receptors during extinction learning. We found that the prelimbic cortex is necessary for trace, but not for delay fear extinction, whereas the infralimbic cortex is involved in both types of extinction. These results are consistent with the idea that trace fear associations require plasticity in multiple cortical areas for successful extinction. Further, the infralimbic cortex appears to play a role in extinction regardless of whether the animal was initially trained in trace or delay conditioning. Together, our results provide new information about how the neural circuits supporting trace and delay fear extinction differ. PMID:25512576

  9. The role of the medial prefrontal cortex in trace fear extinction.

    PubMed

    Kwapis, Janine L; Jarome, Timothy J; Helmstetter, Fred J

    2014-01-01

    The extinction of delay fear conditioning relies on a neural circuit that has received much attention and is relatively well defined. Whether this established circuit also supports the extinction of more complex associations, however, is unclear. Trace fear conditioning is a better model of complex relational learning, yet the circuit that supports extinction of this memory has received very little attention. Recent research has indicated that trace fear extinction requires a different neural circuit than delay extinction; trace extinction requires the participation of the retrosplenial cortex, but not the amygdala, as noted in a previous study. Here, we tested the roles of the prelimbic and infralimbic regions of the medial prefrontal cortex in trace and delay fear extinction by blocking NMDA receptors during extinction learning. We found that the prelimbic cortex is necessary for trace, but not for delay fear extinction, whereas the infralimbic cortex is involved in both types of extinction. These results are consistent with the idea that trace fear associations require plasticity in multiple cortical areas for successful extinction. Further, the infralimbic cortex appears to play a role in extinction regardless of whether the animal was initially trained in trace or delay conditioning. Together, our results provide new information about how the neural circuits supporting trace and delay fear extinction differ. PMID:25512576

  10. The role of the medial prefrontal cortex in trace fear extinction.

    PubMed

    Kwapis, Janine L; Jarome, Timothy J; Helmstetter, Fred J

    2014-01-01

    The extinction of delay fear conditioning relies on a neural circuit that has received much attention and is relatively well defined. Whether this established circuit also supports the extinction of more complex associations, however, is unclear. Trace fear conditioning is a better model of complex relational learning, yet the circuit that supports extinction of this memory has received very little attention. Recent research has indicated that trace fear extinction requires a different neural circuit than delay extinction; trace extinction requires the participation of the retrosplenial cortex, but not the amygdala, as noted in a previous study. Here, we tested the roles of the prelimbic and infralimbic regions of the medial prefrontal cortex in trace and delay fear extinction by blocking NMDA receptors during extinction learning. We found that the prelimbic cortex is necessary for trace, but not for delay fear extinction, whereas the infralimbic cortex is involved in both types of extinction. These results are consistent with the idea that trace fear associations require plasticity in multiple cortical areas for successful extinction. Further, the infralimbic cortex appears to play a role in extinction regardless of whether the animal was initially trained in trace or delay conditioning. Together, our results provide new information about how the neural circuits supporting trace and delay fear extinction differ.

  11. AN ANALYSIS OF THE SHAPES OF INTERSTELLAR EXTINCTION CURVES. VI. THE NEAR-IR EXTINCTION LAW

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzpatrick, E. L.; Massa, D. E-mail: massa@derckmassa.net

    2009-07-10

    We combine new observations from the Hubble Space Telescope's Advanced Camera of Survey with existing data to investigate the wavelength dependence of near-IR (NIR) extinction. Previous studies suggest a power law form for NIR extinction, with a 'universal' value of the exponent, although some recent observations indicate that significant sight line-to-sight line variability may exist. We show that a power-law model for the NIR extinction provides an excellent fit to most extinction curves, but that the value of the power, {beta}, varies significantly from sight line to sight line. Therefore, it seems that a 'universal NIR extinction law' is not possible. Instead, we find that as {beta} decreases, R(V) {identical_to} A(V)/E(B - V) tends to increase, suggesting that NIR extinction curves which have been considered 'peculiar' may, in fact, be typical for different R(V) values. We show that the power-law parameters can depend on the wavelength interval used to derive them, with the {beta} increasing as longer wavelengths are included. This result implies that extrapolating power-law fits to determine R(V) is unreliable. To avoid this problem, we adopt a different functional form for NIR extinction. This new form mimics a power law whose exponent increases with wavelength, has only two free parameters, can fit all of our curves over a longer wavelength baseline and to higher precision, and produces R(V) values which are consistent with independent estimates and commonly used methods for estimating R(V). Furthermore, unlike the power-law model, it gives R(V)s that are independent of the wavelength interval used to derive them. It also suggests that the relation R(V) = -1.36 E(K-V)/(E(B-V)) - 0.79 can estimate R(V) to {+-}0.12. Finally, we use model extinction curves to show that our extinction curves are in accord with theoretical expectations, and demonstrate how large samples of observational quantities can provide useful constraints on the grain properties.

  12. Astronautics and Aeronautics, 1991-1995: A Chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gawdiak, Ihor Y. (Compiler); Shetland, Charles (Compiler)

    2000-01-01

    This chronology of events in aeronautics, aviation, space science, and space exploration was prepared by the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress and RSIS for the History Division of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). It covers the years 1991-1995 and continues the series of annual chronologies published by NASA. The present volume uses the format of the previous edition of this series, Astronautics and Aeronautics, 1986-1990: A Chronology. It also integrates, in the appendices, information presented in previous publication

  13. Astronautics and Aeronautics, 1986-1990: A Chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gawdiak, Ihor Y.; Miro, Ramon J.; Stueland, Sam

    1997-01-01

    This chronology of events in aeronautics, aviation, space science, and space exploration was prepared by the Federal Research Division of the LibrarY of Congress for the History Division of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). It covers the years 1996-1990 and continues the series of annual chronologies published by NASA. The present volume returns to the format used in the Astronautics and Aeronautics, 1979-1984: A Chronology volume. It also integrates in a single table the information presented in two or three previous publications.

  14. Chronology and complexity of early lunar crust

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dasch, E. J.; Ryder, G.; Nyquist, L. E.

    The petrology and chronology of early lunar crust is examined using the least equivocal of the available petrographic and age data on lunar rock samples, and the possible processes which produced the lunar crust are discussed. The results suggest that the lunar anorthositic crust was formed by about 120 Ma after the primary accretion of the moon at 4.56 Ga. At least some members of the diverse Mg-suites of rocks, such as norites, troctolites, and dunites, crystallized within a very few 100s of Ma after 4.56 Ga. A trace-element-rich material (KREEP) was formed by about 4.3 Ga ago, and this residue was subsequently reworked in melting and impact processes such that most samples which contain it have ages around 3.9-4.0 Ga. The findings also suggest that the onset of ferrous mare basalt volcanism began about 4.33 Ga, much earlier than was once assumed, and was still in process before the end of the most intense period of bombardment (3.9-4.0 Ga ago).

  15. Molt chronology of northern pintails in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, M.R.

    1986-01-01

    Intensity and chronology of molt in 10 feather groups (head, neck, breast, belly, back, rump, side, scapular, tertial, and tail) were measured using percentages of developing feathers (pinfeathers) converted to molt scores (0-100) in samples plucked monthly from northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected by shooting from August through March 1980-82 in the Sacramento Valley, California. Data to supplement sample size of immatures were obtained from October 1982 through January 1983. Molt scores of the prealternate molt peaked (30-40% pinfeathers) in immature and adult females and adult males in October when nearly all feather groups were molting. The prealternate molt in immature males did not peak until November. Adult males nearly completed this molt by December; no new feather growth occurred after January. Immature males were still growing new neck, side, rump, scapular, and tertial feathers in December. Molt scores of the prebasic molt among adult and immature females peaked (30-40% new growth) in February in both years. The prealternate molt of breast and belly feathers (both sexes) peaked earlier (Sep) than molt of most other feathers (Oct). Increased molt scores in peak months were a function of a disproportionate increase of molt activity within each feather group and the number of feather groups with molt. Molt scores of the prebasic molt in adult females were less during December and January of the dry (1980-81) than the wet (1981-82) winter. Restriction or delay of molt may conserve energy or other nutrients during poor habitat conditions.

  16. Ecology: Dynamics of Indirect Extinction.

    PubMed

    Montoya, Jose M

    2015-12-01

    The experimental identification of the mechanism by which extinctions of predators trigger further predator extinctions emphasizes the role of indirect effects between species in disturbed ecosystems. It also has deep consequences for the hidden magnitude of the current biodiversity crisis. PMID:26654371

  17. Pleistocene extinctions: haunting the survivors.

    PubMed

    Hofreiter, Michael

    2007-08-01

    For many years, the megafaunal extinctions at the end of the Pleistocene have been assumed to have affected only those species that became extinct. However, recent analyses show that the surviving species may also have experienced losses in terms of genetic and ecological diversity. PMID:17686436

  18. Acoustic integrated extinction

    PubMed Central

    Norris, Andrew N.

    2015-01-01

    The integrated extinction (IE) is defined as the integral of the scattering cross section as a function of wavelength. Sohl et al. (2007 J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 122, 3206–3210. (doi:10.1121/1.2801546)) derived an IE expression for acoustic scattering that is causal, i.e. the scattered wavefront in the forward direction arrives later than the incident plane wave in the background medium. The IE formula was based on electromagnetic results, for which scattering is causal by default. Here, we derive a formula for the acoustic IE that is valid for causal and non-causal scattering. The general result is expressed as an integral of the time-dependent forward scattering function. The IE reduces to a finite integral for scatterers with zero long-wavelength monopole and dipole amplitudes. Implications for acoustic cloaking are discussed and a new metric is proposed for broadband acoustic transparency. PMID:27547100

  19. Self-extinction through optimizing selection.

    PubMed

    Parvinen, Kalle; Dieckmann, Ulf

    2013-09-21

    Evolutionary suicide is a process in which selection drives a viable population to extinction. So far, such selection-driven self-extinction has been demonstrated in models with frequency-dependent selection. This is not surprising, since frequency-dependent selection can disconnect individual-level and population-level interests through environmental feedback. Hence it can lead to situations akin to the tragedy of the commons, with adaptations that serve the selfish interests of individuals ultimately ruining a population. For frequency-dependent selection to play such a role, it must not be optimizing. Together, all published studies of evolutionary suicide have created the impression that evolutionary suicide is not possible with optimizing selection. Here we disprove this misconception by presenting and analyzing an example in which optimizing selection causes self-extinction. We then take this line of argument one step further by showing, in a further example, that selection-driven self-extinction can occur even under frequency-independent selection. PMID:23583808

  20. Self-extinction through optimizing selection.

    PubMed

    Parvinen, Kalle; Dieckmann, Ulf

    2013-09-21

    Evolutionary suicide is a process in which selection drives a viable population to extinction. So far, such selection-driven self-extinction has been demonstrated in models with frequency-dependent selection. This is not surprising, since frequency-dependent selection can disconnect individual-level and population-level interests through environmental feedback. Hence it can lead to situations akin to the tragedy of the commons, with adaptations that serve the selfish interests of individuals ultimately ruining a population. For frequency-dependent selection to play such a role, it must not be optimizing. Together, all published studies of evolutionary suicide have created the impression that evolutionary suicide is not possible with optimizing selection. Here we disprove this misconception by presenting and analyzing an example in which optimizing selection causes self-extinction. We then take this line of argument one step further by showing, in a further example, that selection-driven self-extinction can occur even under frequency-independent selection.

  1. Observational evidence of dust evolution in galactic extinction curves

    SciTech Connect

    Cecchi-Pestellini, Cesare; Casu, Silvia; Mulas, Giacomo; Zonca, Alberto E-mail: silvia@oa-cagliari.inaf.it E-mail: azonca@oa-cagliari.inaf.it

    2014-04-10

    Although structural and optical properties of hydrogenated amorphous carbons are known to respond to varying physical conditions, most conventional extinction models are basically curve fits with modest predictive power. We compare an evolutionary model of the physical properties of carbonaceous grain mantles with their determination by homogeneously fitting observationally derived Galactic extinction curves with the same physically well-defined dust model. We find that a large sample of observed Galactic extinction curves are compatible with the evolutionary scenario underlying such a model, requiring physical conditions fully consistent with standard density, temperature, radiation field intensity, and average age of diffuse interstellar clouds. Hence, through the study of interstellar extinction we may, in principle, understand the evolutionary history of the diffuse interstellar clouds.

  2. Measuring Extinction with ALE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zimmer, Peter C.; McGraw, J. T.; Gimmestad, G. G.; Roberts, D.; Stewart, J.; Smith, J.; Fitch, J.

    2007-12-01

    ALE (Astronomical LIDAR for Extinction) is deployed at the University of New Mexico's (UNM) Campus Observatory in Albuquerque, NM. It has begun a year-long testing phase prior deployment at McDonald Observatory in support of the CCD/Transit Instrument II (CTI-II). ALE is designed to produce a high-precision measurement of atmospheric absorption and scattering above the observatory site every ten minutes of every moderately clear night. LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) is the VIS/UV/IR analog of radar, using a laser, telescope and time-gated photodetector instead of a radio transmitter, dish and receiver. In the case of ALE -- an elastic backscatter LIDAR -- 20ns-long, eye-safe laser pulses are launched 2500 times per second from a 0.32m transmitting telescope co-mounted with a 50mm short-range receiver on an alt-az mounted 0.67m long-range receiver. Photons from the laser pulse are scattered and absorbed as the pulse propagates through the atmosphere, a portion of which are scattered into the field of view of the short- and long-range receiver telescopes and detected by a photomultiplier. The properties of a given volume of atmosphere along the LIDAR path are inferred from both the altitude-resolved backscatter signal as well as the attenuation of backscatter signal from altitudes above it. We present ALE profiles from the commissioning phase and demonstrate some of the astronomically interesting atmospheric information that can be gleaned from these data, including, but not limited to, total line-of-sight extinction. This project is funded by NSF Grant 0421087.

  3. Extinction of Harrington's mountain goat.

    PubMed

    Mead, J I; Martin, P S; Euler, R C; Long, A; Jull, A J; Toolin, L J; Donahue, D J; Linick, T W

    1986-02-01

    Keratinous horn sheaths of the extinct Harrington's mountain goat, Oreamnos harringtoni, were recovered at or near the surface of dry caves of the Grand Canyon, Arizona. Twenty-three separate specimens from two caves were dated nondestructively by the tandem accelerator mass spectrometer (TAMS). Both the TAMS and the conventional dates indicate that Harrington's mountain goat occupied the Grand Canyon for at least 19,000 years prior to becoming extinct by 11,160 +/- 125 radiocarbon years before present. The youngest average radiocarbon dates on Shasta ground sloths, Nothrotheriops shastensis, from the region are not significantly younger than those on extinct mountain goats. Rather than sequential extinction with Harrington's mountain goat disappearing from the Grand Canyon before the ground sloths, as one might predict in view of evidence of climatic warming at the time, the losses were concurrent. Both extinctions coincide with the regional arrival of Clovis hunters.

  4. Interstellar extinction in the ultraviolet

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bless, R. C.; Savage, B. D.

    1972-01-01

    Interstellar extinction curves over the region 3600-1100 A for 17 stars are presented. The observations were made by the two Wisconsin spectrometers onboard the OAO-2 with spectral resolutions of 10 A and 20 A. The extinction curves generally show a pronounced maximum at 2175 plus or minus 25 A, a broad minimum in the region 1800-1350 A, and finally a rapid rise to the far ultraviolet. Large extinction variations from star to star are found, especially in the far ultraviolet; however, with only two possible exceptions in this sample, the wavelength at the maximum of the extinction bump is essentially constant. These data are combined with visual and infrared observations to display the extinction behavior over a range in wavelength of about a factor of 20.

  5. Extinction of Harrington's mountain goat

    SciTech Connect

    Mead, J.I.; Martin, P.S.; Euler, R.C.; Long, A.; Jull, A.J.T.; Toolin, L.J.; Donahue, D.J.; Linick, T.W.

    1986-02-01

    Keratinous horn sheaths of the extinct Harrington's mountain goat, Oreamnos harringtoni, were recovered at or near the surface of dry caves of the Grand Canyon, Arizona. Twenty-three separate specimens from two caves were dated nondestructively by the tandem accelerator mass spectrometer (TAMS). Both the TAMS and the conventional dates indicate that Harrington's mountain goat occupied the Grand Canyon for at least 19,000 years prior to becoming extinct by 11,160 +/- 125 radiocarbon years before present. The youngest average radiocarbon dates on Shasta ground sloths, Nothrotheriops shastensis, from the region are not significantly younger than those on extinct mountain goats. Rather than sequential extinction with Harrington's mountain goat disappearing from the Grand Canyon before the ground sloths, as one might predict in view of evidence of climatic warming at the time, the losses were concurrent. Both extinctions coincide with the regional arrival of Clovis hunters.

  6. Extinction of Harrington's Mountain Goat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mead, Jim I.; Martin, Paul S.; Euler, Robert C.; Long, Austin; Jull, A. J. T.; Toolin, Laurence J.; Donahue, Douglas J.; Linick, T. W.

    1986-02-01

    Keratinous horn sheaths of the extinct Harrington's mountain goat, Oreamnos harringtoni, were recovered at or near the surface of dry caves of the Grand Canyon, Arizona. Twenty-three separate specimens from two caves were dated nondestructively by the tandem accelerator mass spectrometer (TAMS). Both the TAMS and the conventional dates indicate that Harrington's mountain goat occupied the Grand Canyon for at least 19,000 years prior to becoming extinct by 11,160 ± 125 radiocarbon years before present. The youngest average radiocarbon dates on Shasta ground sloths, Nothrotheriops shastensis, from the region are not significantly younger than those on extinct mountain goats. Rather than sequential extinction with Harrington's mountain goat disappearing from the Grand Canyon before the ground sloths, as one might predict in view of evidence of climatic warming at the time, the losses were concurrent. Both extinctions coincide with the regional arrival of Clovis hunters.

  7. The end-Permian mass extinction: A complex, multicausal extinction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Erwin, D. H.

    1994-01-01

    The end-Permian mass extinction was the most extensive in the history of life and remains one of the most complex. Understanding its causes is particularly important because it anchors the putative 26-m.y. pattern of periodic extinction. However, there is no good evidence for an impact and this extinction appears to be more complex than others, involving at least three phases. The first began with the onset of a marine regression during the Late Permian and resulting elimination of most marine basins, reduction in habitat area, and increased climatic instability; the first pulse of tetrapod extinctions occurred in South Africa at this time. The second phase involved increased regression in many areas (although apparently not in South China) and heightened climatic instability and environmental degradation. Release of gas hydrates, oxidation of marine carbon, and the eruption of the Siberian flood basalts occurred during this phase. The final phase of the extinction episode began with the earliest Triassic marine regression and destruction of nearshore continental habitats. Some evidence suggests oceanic anoxia may have developed during the final phase of the extinction, although it appears to have been insufficient to the sole cause of the extinction.

  8. Astronautics and Aeronautics, 1979-1984: A chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Janson, Bette R.; Ritchie, Eleanor H.

    1989-01-01

    This volume of the Astronautics and Aeronautics series covers 1979 through 1984. The series provides a chronological presentation of all significant events and developments in space exploration and the administration of the space program during the period covered.

  9. Astronautics and aeronautics, 1970. Chronology on science, technology, and policy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1972-01-01

    An immediate reference to aerospace-related events of 1970 is provided to help historians in preserving historical accuracy and precision. Chronologies of major NASA launches, and manned space flights for 1970 are included.

  10. Chronology of KSC and KSC related events for 1992

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nail, Ken, Jr.

    1993-01-01

    This chronology is published to fulfill the requirements of KMI 2700.1 to describe and document KSC's role in NASA's progress. Materials for this chronology were selected from a number of published sources. The document records KSC events of interest to historians and other researchers. Arrangement is by date of occurrence, though the source cited may be dated one or more days after the event. An index is included.

  11. Chronology of KSC and KSC Related Events for 2012

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liston, Elaine E.

    2013-01-01

    This 2012 Chronology is published to describe and document KSC's role in NASA's progress. Materials for this Chronology were selected from a number of published sources. The document records KSC events of interest to historians and other researchers. Arrangement is by date of occurrence, though the source cited may be dated one or more days after the event. Materials were researched and compiled for publication by Archivist Elaine Liston.

  12. Community stability and selective extinction during the Permian-Triassic mass extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roopnarine, Peter D.; Angielczyk, Kenneth D.

    2015-10-01

    The fossil record contains exemplars of extreme biodiversity crises. Here, we examined the stability of terrestrial paleocommunities from South Africa during Earth's most severe mass extinction, the Permian-Triassic. We show that stability depended critically on functional diversity and patterns of guild interaction, regardless of species richness. Paleocommunities exhibited less transient instability—relative to model communities with alternative community organization—and significantly greater probabilities of being locally stable during the mass extinction. Functional patterns that have evolved during an ecosystem's history support significantly more stable communities than hypothetical alternatives.

  13. Community stability and selective extinction during the Permian-Triassic mass extinction.

    PubMed

    Roopnarine, Peter D; Angielczyk, Kenneth D

    2015-10-01

    The fossil record contains exemplars of extreme biodiversity crises. Here, we examined the stability of terrestrial paleocommunities from South Africa during Earth's most severe mass extinction, the Permian-Triassic. We show that stability depended critically on functional diversity and patterns of guild interaction, regardless of species richness. Paleocommunities exhibited less transient instability—relative to model communities with alternative community organization—and significantly greater probabilities of being locally stable during the mass extinction. Functional patterns that have evolved during an ecosystem's history support significantly more stable communities than hypothetical alternatives. PMID:26430120

  14. Local extinction synchronizes population dynamics in spatial networks.

    PubMed

    Matter, Stephen F; Roland, Jens

    2010-03-01

    Spatial population theory predicts that synchrony in the dynamics of local populations should decrease as dispersal among populations decreases. Thus, it would be expected that the extinction of local populations and the attendant loss of immigrants to surrounding populations would reduce synchrony. We tested this hypothesis through a large-scale experiment, simulation of the experimental system and general models. Experimental removal of two adjacent subpopulations of the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly, Parnassius smintheus within a network consisting of 15 other local populations resulted in a decrease in immigration to surrounding populations that was proportional to their connectivity to the removal populations. These populations also showed a significant increase in synchrony during population removal. The spatial extent of the synchrony showed good agreement with the predicted loss of immigrants owing to the removals. Simulation of the Parnassius system showed a similar short-term result and also indicated that permanent loss of populations produces structural changes increasing synchrony. General models indicate that an increase in synchrony following extinction occurs when populations undergoing extinction have different carrying capacities than surrounding populations. The result is not owing to biased migration per se, but rather is because of the number of immigrants relative to the carrying capacity. Synchrony following extinction should be most common for patchy populations, but can occur in any situation where carrying capacities differ. Overall, our results indicate that local extinction can create a positive feedback for extinction risk, increasing the probability of extinction for population networks by synchronizing their dynamics.

  15. Extinctions in Heterogeneous Environments and the Evolution of Modularity

    PubMed Central

    Kashtan, Nadav; Parter, Merav; Dekel, Erez; Mayo, Avi E; Alon, Uri

    2009-01-01

    Extinctions of local subpopulations are common events in nature. Here, we ask whether such extinctions can affect the design of biological networks within organisms over evolutionary timescales. We study the impact of extinction events on modularity of biological systems, a common architectural principle found on multiple scales in biology. As a model system, we use networks that evolve toward goals specified as desired input–output relationships. We use an extinction–recolonization model, in which metapopulations occupy and migrate between different localities. Each locality displays a different environmental condition (goal), but shares the same set of subgoals with other localities. We find that in the absence of extinction events, the evolved computational networks are typically highly optimal for their localities with a nonmodular structure. In contrast, when local populations go extinct from time to time, we find that the evolved networks are modular in structure. Modular circuitry is selected because of its ability to adapt rapidly to the conditions of the free niche following an extinction event. This rapid adaptation is mainly achieved through genetic recombination of modules between immigrants from neighboring local populations. This study suggests, therefore, that extinctions in heterogeneous environments promote the evolution of modular biological network structure, allowing local populations to effectively recombine their modules to recolonize niches. PMID:19473401

  16. Dynamics of Droplet Extinction in Slow Convective Flows

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nayagam, V.; Haggard, J. B., Jr.; Williams, F. A.

    1999-01-01

    The classical model for droplet combustion predicts that the square of the droplet diameter decreases linearly with time. It also predicts that a droplet of any size will burn to completion over a period of time. However, it has been known for some time that under certain conditions flames surrounding a droplet, in a quiescent environment, could extinguish because of insufficient residence time for the chemistry to proceed to completion. This type of extinction that occurs for smaller droplets has been studied extensively in the past. Large droplets, on the other hand, exhibit a different type of extinction where excessive radiative heat loss from the flame zone leads to extinction. This mode of "radiative extinction" was theoretically predicted for droplet burning by Chao et al. and was observed in recent space experiments in a quiescent environment. Thus far, the fundamental flammability limit prescribed by radiative extinction of liquid droplets has been measured only under quiescent environmental conditions. In many space platforms, however, ventilation systems produce small convective flows and understanding of the influences of this convection on the extinction process will help better define the radiative extinction flammability boundaries. Boundaries defined by experiments and captured using theoretical models could provide enhanced fire safety margin in space explor1999063d investigation of convective effects will help in interpretations of burning-rate data obtained during free-floated droplet combustion experiments with small residual velocities.

  17. Prospects for Chronological Studies of Martian Rocks and Soils

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nyquist, L. E.; Shih, C-Y.; Reese, Y. D.

    2008-01-01

    Chronological information about Martian processes comes from two sources: Crater-frequency studies and laboratory studies of Martian meteorites. Each has limitations that could be overcome by studies of returned Martian rocks and soils. Chronology of Martian volcanism: The currently accepted chronology of Martian volcanic surfaces relies on crater counts for different Martian stratigraphic units [1]. However, there is a large inherent uncertainty for intermediate ages near 2 Ga ago. The effect of differing preferences for Martian cratering chronologies [1] is shown in Fig. 1. Stoeffler and Ryder [2] summarized lunar chronology, upon which Martian cratering chronology is based. Fig. 2 shows a curve fit to their data, and compares to it a corresponding lunar curve from [3]. The radiometric ages of some lunar and Martian meteorites as well as the crater-count delimiters for Martian epochs [4] also are shown for comparison to the craterfrequency curves. Scaling the Stoeffler-Ryder curve by a Mars/Moon factor of 1.55 [5] places Martian shergottite ages into the Early Amazonian to late Hesperian epochs, whereas using the lunar curve of [3] and a Mars/Moon factor 1 consigns the shergottites to the Middle-to-Late Amazonian, a less probable result. The problem is worsened if a continually decreasing cratering rate since 3 Ga ago is accepted [6]. We prefer the adjusted St ffler-Ryder curve because it gives better agreement with the meteorite ages (Fig.

  18. Large Diameter, Radiative Extinction Experiments with Decane Droplets in Microgravity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Easton, John; Tien, James; Dietrich, Daniel

    1999-01-01

    The extinction of a diffusion flame is of fundamental interest in combustion science. Linan, Law, and Chung and Law analytically and experimentally determined an extinction boundary in terms of droplet diameter and pressure for a single droplet due to Damkohler, or blowoff, extinction. More recently, other researchers demonstrated extinction due to finite rate kinetics in reduced gravity for free droplets of heptane. Chao modeled the effect of radiative heat loss on a quasi-steady spherically symmetric single droplet burning in the absence of buoyancy. They determined that for increasing droplet diameter, a second limit can be reached such that combustion is no longer possible. This second, larger droplet diameter limit arises due to radiative heat loss, which increases with increasing droplet and flame diameter. This increase in radiative heat loss arises due to an increase in the surface area of the flame. Recently, Marchese modeled fuel droplets with detailed chemistry and radiative effects, and compared the results to other work. The modeling also showed the importance of radiative loss and radiative extinction Experiments examined the behavior of a large droplet of decane burning in reduced gravity onboard the NASA Lewis DC-9 aircraft, but did not show a radiative extinction boundary due to g-jitter (Variations in gravitational level and direction) effects. Dietrich conducted experiments in the reduced gravity environment of the Space Shuttle. This work showed that the extinction diameter of methanol droplets increased when the initial diameter of the droplets was large (in this case, approximately 5 mm). Theoretical results agreed with these experimental results only when the theory included radiative effects . Radiative extinction was experimentally verified by Nayagam in a later Shuttle mission. The following work focuses on the combustion and extinction of a single fuel droplet. The goal is to experimentally determine a large droplet diameter limit that

  19. Extinction risk depends strongly on factors contributing to stochasticity.

    PubMed

    Melbourne, Brett A; Hastings, Alan

    2008-07-01

    Extinction risk in natural populations depends on stochastic factors that affect individuals, and is estimated by incorporating such factors into stochastic models. Stochasticity can be divided into four categories, which include the probabilistic nature of birth and death at the level of individuals (demographic stochasticity), variation in population-level birth and death rates among times or locations (environmental stochasticity), the sex of individuals and variation in vital rates among individuals within a population (demographic heterogeneity). Mechanistic stochastic models that include all of these factors have not previously been developed to examine their combined effects on extinction risk. Here we derive a family of stochastic Ricker models using different combinations of all these stochastic factors, and show that extinction risk depends strongly on the combination of factors that contribute to stochasticity. Furthermore, we show that only with the full stochastic model can the relative importance of environmental and demographic variability, and therefore extinction risk, be correctly determined. Using the full model, we find that demographic sources of stochasticity are the prominent cause of variability in a laboratory population of Tribolium castaneum (red flour beetle), whereas using only the standard simpler models would lead to the erroneous conclusion that environmental variability dominates. Our results demonstrate that current estimates of extinction risk for natural populations could be greatly underestimated because variability has been mistakenly attributed to the environment rather than the demographic factors described here that entail much higher extinction risk for the same variability level.

  20. The discovery of the principles of reinforcement, extinction, generalization, and differentiation of conditional reflexes in Pavlov's laboratories.

    PubMed

    Windholz, G

    1989-01-01

    The discovery of reinforcement, extinction, generalization, and differentiation with the conditional reflex method in Pavlov's laboratories is described. Modern American introductory texts show that contemporary understanding of the experimental work on conditioning in Pavlov's laboratories is derived from a 1927 English translation of Pavlov's lectures on the conditional reflexes. The lectures present the discoveries topically, not chronologically. In contrast, this article presents a chronological account of the contributions of S.G. Vul'fson, I.F. Tolochinov, and B.P. Babkin, which led to the conceptualization of reinforcement and extinction, and the work of V.N. Boldyrev and N.A. Kashereninova, which led to the formulation of the concepts of generalization and differentiation. This historical approach avoids giving the impression that the development of the Pavlovian paradigm was a highly systematic pursuit.

  1. OxCal: versatile tool for developing paleoearthquake chronologies--a primer

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, J.J.; Ramsey, C.B.

    2009-01-01

    Ages of paleoearthquakes (events), i.e., evidence of earthquakes inferred from the geologic record, provide a critical constraint on estimation of the seismic hazard posed by an active fault. The radiocarbon calibration program OxCal (4.0.3 and above; Bronk Ramsey 2007, 2001) provides paleoseismologists with a straightforward but rigorous means of estimating these event ages and their uncertainties. Although initially developed for the chronologic modeling of archaeological data from diverse sources (e.g., radiocarbon, historical knowledge, etc.), OxCal is readily adaptable to other disciplines requiring chronological modeling, such as paleoseismology (Fumal et al. 2002; Lindvall et al. 2002; Kelson et al. 2006; Noriega et al. 2006; Lienkaemper and Williams 2007; Yen et al. 2008).

  2. Magma-salt interactions and degassing from the Tunguska Basin, Siberia: Towards a new killer model for the P-Tr mass extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svensen, H.; Planke, S.; Polozov, A.; Schmidbauer, N.

    2006-12-01

    Life on Earth was severely affected during the Permo-Triasic mass extinction. A 5-10º C global warming and oceanic anoxia accompanied the mass extinction. There is a consensus that massive volcanic eruptions from the Siberian Traps Large igneous province 251 million years ago played a key role in the environmental catastrophe. However, the actual mechanisms are strongly debated. We present new field, geochemical and experimental data that links both the mass extinction and the global warming to processes in the Tunguska Basin in Siberia. The basin is composed of dominantly Cambrian evaporates and Ordovician to Permian marine to terrestrial carbonates, sandstones, shales and coals. During the formation of the Siberian Traps, these sediments were intruded by magmatic sills and dykes. The emplacement resulted in heating of the sedimentary host rocks, gas generation and formation of hundreds of explosion pipes. The pipes are rooted in a 1-2 km thick evaporate sequence (halite, anhydrate, dolostone) and contain brecciated and altered sedimentary and magmatic rocks. Borehole data show intense alteration in the contact aureoles around sill intrusions and around the pipes. Heating experiments of hydrocarbon-bearing evaporates show that gases generated during metamorphism include CO2, SO2 and a range of halocarbons and sulfur-bearing hydrocarbon gases. Furthermore, chloride isotope data from the contact aureoles support a removal of Cl during metamorphism. Our results demonstrate that metamorphism and degassing from the Tunguska Basin provided the necessary components to cause an environmental disaster, including destruction of the Late Permian ozone layer.

  3. The learning of fear extinction.

    PubMed

    Furini, Cristiane; Myskiw, Jociane; Izquierdo, Ivan

    2014-11-01

    Recent work on the extinction of fear-motivated learning places emphasis on its putative circuitry and on its modulation. Extinction is the learned inhibition of retrieval of previously acquired responses. Fear extinction is used as a major component of exposure therapy in the treatment of fear memories such as those of the posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). It is initiated and maintained by interactions between the hippocampus, basolateral amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex, which involve feedback regulation of the latter by the other two areas. Fear extinction depends on NMDA receptor activation. It is positively modulated by d-serine acting on the glycine site of NMDA receptors and blocked by AP5 (2-amino-5-phosphono propionate) in the three structures. In addition, histamine acting on H2 receptors and endocannabinoids acting on CB1 receptors in the three brain areas mentioned, and muscarinic cholinergic fibers from the medial septum to hippocampal CA1 positively modulate fear extinction. Importantly, fear extinction can be made state-dependent on circulating epinephrine, which may play a role in situations of stress. Exposure to a novel experience can strongly enhance the consolidation of fear extinction through a synaptic tagging and capture mechanism; this may be useful in the therapy of states caused by fear memory like PTSD.

  4. Mass Extinctions in Earth's History

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P. D.

    2002-12-01

    Mass extinctions are short intervals of elevated species death. Possible causes of Earth's mass extinctions are both external (astronomical) and internal (tectonic and biotic changes from planetary mechanisms). Paleontologists have identified five "major" mass extinctions (>50 die-off in less than a million years) and more than 20 other minor events over the past 550 million years. Earlier major extinction events undoubtedly also occurred, but we have no fossil record; these were probably associated with, for example, the early heavy bombardment that cleared out the solar system, the advent of oxygen in the atmosphere, and various "snowball Earth" events. Mass extinctions are viewed as both destructive (species death ) and constructive, in that they allow evolutionary innovation in the wake of species disappearances. From an astrobiological perspective, mass extinctions must be considered as able both to reduce biodiversity and even potentially end life on any planet. Of the five major mass extinctions identified on Earth, only one (the Cretaceous/Tertiary event 65 million years ago that famously killed off the dinosaurs ) is unambiguously related to the impact of an asteroid or comet ( 10-km diameter). The Permian/Triassic (250 Myr ago) and Triassic/Jurassic (202 Myr ago) events are now the center of debate between those favoring impact and those suggesting large volume flooding by basaltic lavas. The final two events, Ordovician (440 Myr ago) and Devonian (370 Myr ago) have no accepted causal mechanisms.

  5. The learning of fear extinction.

    PubMed

    Furini, Cristiane; Myskiw, Jociane; Izquierdo, Ivan

    2014-11-01

    Recent work on the extinction of fear-motivated learning places emphasis on its putative circuitry and on its modulation. Extinction is the learned inhibition of retrieval of previously acquired responses. Fear extinction is used as a major component of exposure therapy in the treatment of fear memories such as those of the posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). It is initiated and maintained by interactions between the hippocampus, basolateral amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex, which involve feedback regulation of the latter by the other two areas. Fear extinction depends on NMDA receptor activation. It is positively modulated by d-serine acting on the glycine site of NMDA receptors and blocked by AP5 (2-amino-5-phosphono propionate) in the three structures. In addition, histamine acting on H2 receptors and endocannabinoids acting on CB1 receptors in the three brain areas mentioned, and muscarinic cholinergic fibers from the medial septum to hippocampal CA1 positively modulate fear extinction. Importantly, fear extinction can be made state-dependent on circulating epinephrine, which may play a role in situations of stress. Exposure to a novel experience can strongly enhance the consolidation of fear extinction through a synaptic tagging and capture mechanism; this may be useful in the therapy of states caused by fear memory like PTSD. PMID:25452113

  6. Extinction in young massive clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Marchi, Guido; Panagia, Nino

    2016-01-01

    Up to ages of ~100 Myr, massive clusters are still swamped in large amounts of gas and dust, causing considerable and uneven levels of extinction. At the same time, large grains (ices?) produced by type II supernovae profoundly alter the interstellar medium (ISM), thus resulting in extinction properties very different from those of the diffuse ISM. To obtain physically meaningful parameters of stars (luminosities, effective temperatures, masses, ages, etc.) we must understand and measure the local extinction law. We have developed a powerful method to unambiguously determine the extinction law everywhere across a cluster field, using multi-band photometry of red giant stars belonging to the red clump (RC) and are applying it to young massive clusters in the Local Group. In the Large Magellanic Cloud, with about 20 RC stars per arcmin2, for each field we can easily derive an accurate extinction curve over the entire wavelength range of the photometry. As an example, we present the extinction law of the Tarantula nebula (30 Dor) based on thousands of stars observed as part of the Hubble Tarantula Treasury Project. We discuss how the incautious adoption of the Milky Way extinction law in the analysis of massive star forming regions may lead to serious underestimates of the fluxes and of the star formation rates by factors of 2 or more.

  7. Reconstructing past species assemblages reveals the changing patterns and drivers of extinction through time

    PubMed Central

    Bromham, Lindell; Lanfear, Robert; Cassey, Phillip; Gibb, Gillian; Cardillo, Marcel

    2012-01-01

    Predicting future species extinctions from patterns of past extinctions or current threat status relies on the assumption that the taxonomic and biological selectivity of extinction is consistent through time. If the driving forces of extinction change through time, this assumption may be unrealistic. Testing the consistency of extinction patterns between the past and the present has been difficult, because the phylogenetically explicit methods used to model present-day extinction risk typically cannot be applied to the data from the fossil record. However, the detailed historical and fossil records of the New Zealand avifauna provide a unique opportunity to reconstruct a complete, large faunal assemblage for different periods in the past. Using the first complete phylogeny of all known native New Zealand bird species, both extant and extinct, we show how the taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity of extinction, and biological correlates of extinction, change from the pre-human period through Polynesian and European occupation, to the present. These changes can be explained both by changes in primary threatening processes, and by the operation of extinction filter effects. The variable patterns of extinction through time may confound attempts to identify risk factors that apply across time periods, and to infer future species declines from past extinction patterns and current threat status. PMID:22859591

  8. Reconstructing past species assemblages reveals the changing patterns and drivers of extinction through time.

    PubMed

    Bromham, Lindell; Lanfear, Robert; Cassey, Phillip; Gibb, Gillian; Cardillo, Marcel

    2012-10-01

    Predicting future species extinctions from patterns of past extinctions or current threat status relies on the assumption that the taxonomic and biological selectivity of extinction is consistent through time. If the driving forces of extinction change through time, this assumption may be unrealistic. Testing the consistency of extinction patterns between the past and the present has been difficult, because the phylogenetically explicit methods used to model present-day extinction risk typically cannot be applied to the data from the fossil record. However, the detailed historical and fossil records of the New Zealand avifauna provide a unique opportunity to reconstruct a complete, large faunal assemblage for different periods in the past. Using the first complete phylogeny of all known native New Zealand bird species, both extant and extinct, we show how the taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity of extinction, and biological correlates of extinction, change from the pre-human period through Polynesian and European occupation, to the present. These changes can be explained both by changes in primary threatening processes, and by the operation of extinction filter effects. The variable patterns of extinction through time may confound attempts to identify risk factors that apply across time periods, and to infer future species declines from past extinction patterns and current threat status.

  9. New theories about ancient extinctions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, H.

    1986-01-01

    But all this may be changing. Mass extinctions have been very much in the news in the last few years, triggered in large part by the proposal that the extinction of the dinosaurs and marine animals was caused by a catastrophic collision between the Earth and an extra-terrestrial body (bolide). Recently an equally contentious suggestion has been made that mass extinctions have swept the Earth every 26 to 31 million years for at least the last 250 million years-caused by encounters with some kind of extra-terrestrial object such as one of the asteroids or the comets. 

  10. Reflections on the extinction-explosion dichotomy.

    PubMed

    Steel, Mike

    2015-05-01

    A wide range of stochastic processes that model the growth and decline of populations exhibit a curious dichotomy: with certainty either the population goes extinct or its size tends to infinity. There is an elegant and classical theorem that explains why this dichotomy must hold under certain assumptions concerning the process. In this note, I explore how these assumptions might be relaxed further in order to obtain the same, or a similar conclusion, and obtain both positive and negative results.

  11. Estimates of coextinction risk: how anuran parasites respond to the extinction of their hosts.

    PubMed

    Campião, Karla Magalhães; de Aquino Ribas, Augusto Cesar; Cornell, Stephen J; Begon, Michael; Tavares, Luiz Eduardo Roland

    2015-12-01

    Amphibians are known as the most threatened vertebrate group. One of the outcomes of a species' extinction is the coextinction of its dependents. Here, we estimate the extinction risk of helminth parasites of South America anurans. Parasite coextinction probabilities were modeled, assuming parasite specificity and host vulnerability to extinction as determinants. Parasite species associated with few hosts were the most prone to extinction, and extinction risk varied amongst helminth species of different taxonomic groups and life cycle complexity. Considering host vulnerability in the model decreased the extinction probability of most parasites species. However, parasite specificity and host vulnerability combined to increase the extinction probabilities of 44% of the helminth species reported in a single anuran species.

  12. Spatial variability in growth-increment chronologies of long-lived freshwater mussels: Implications for climate impacts and reconstructions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Black, Bryan A.; Dunham, Jason B.; Blundon, Brett W.; Raggon, Mark F.; Zima, Daniela

    2010-01-01

    Estimates of historical variability in river ecosystems are often lacking, but long-lived freshwater mussels could provide unique opportunities to understand past conditions in these environments. We applied dendrochronology techniques to quantify historical variability in growth-increment widths in valves (shells) of western pearlshell freshwater mussels (Margaritifera falcata). A total of 3 growth-increment chronologies, spanning 19 to 26 y in length, were developed. Growth was highly synchronous among individuals within each site, and to a lesser extent, chronologies were synchronous among sites. All 3 chronologies negatively related to instrumental records of stream discharge, while correlations with measures of water temperature were consistently positive but weaker. A reconstruction of stream discharge was performed using linear regressions based on a mussel growth chronology and the regional Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Models based on mussel growth and PDSI yielded similar coefficients of prediction (R2Pred) of 0.73 and 0.77, respectively, for predicting out-ofsample observations. From an ecological perspective, we found that mussel chronologies provided a rich source of information for understanding climate impacts. Responses of mussels to changes in climate and stream ecosystems can be very site- and process-specific, underscoring the complex nature of biotic responses to climate change and the need to understand both regional and local processes in projecting climate impacts on freshwater species.

  13. Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction.

    PubMed

    De Vos, Jurriaan M; Joppa, Lucas N; Gittleman, John L; Stephens, Patrick R; Pimm, Stuart L

    2015-04-01

    A key measure of humanity's global impact is by how much it has increased species extinction rates. Familiar statements are that these are 100-1000 times pre-human or background extinction levels. Estimating recent rates is straightforward, but establishing a background rate for comparison is not. Previous researchers chose an approximate benchmark of 1 extinction per million species per year (E/MSY). We explored disparate lines of evidence that suggest a substantially lower estimate. Fossil data yield direct estimates of extinction rates, but they are temporally coarse, mostly limited to marine hard-bodied taxa, and generally involve genera not species. Based on these data, typical background loss is 0.01 genera per million genera per year. Molecular phylogenies are available for more taxa and ecosystems, but it is debated whether they can be used to estimate separately speciation and extinction rates. We selected data to address known concerns and used them to determine median extinction estimates from statistical distributions of probable values for terrestrial plants and animals. We then created simulations to explore effects of violating model assumptions. Finally, we compiled estimates of diversification-the difference between speciation and extinction rates for different taxa. Median estimates of extinction rates ranged from 0.023 to 0.135 E/MSY. Simulation results suggested over- and under-estimation of extinction from individual phylogenies partially canceled each other out when large sets of phylogenies were analyzed. There was no evidence for recent and widespread pre-human overall declines in diversity. This implies that average extinction rates are less than average diversification rates. Median diversification rates were 0.05-0.2 new species per million species per year. On the basis of these results, we concluded that typical rates of background extinction may be closer to 0.1 E/MSY. Thus, current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural

  14. Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction.

    PubMed

    De Vos, Jurriaan M; Joppa, Lucas N; Gittleman, John L; Stephens, Patrick R; Pimm, Stuart L

    2015-04-01

    A key measure of humanity's global impact is by how much it has increased species extinction rates. Familiar statements are that these are 100-1000 times pre-human or background extinction levels. Estimating recent rates is straightforward, but establishing a background rate for comparison is not. Previous researchers chose an approximate benchmark of 1 extinction per million species per year (E/MSY). We explored disparate lines of evidence that suggest a substantially lower estimate. Fossil data yield direct estimates of extinction rates, but they are temporally coarse, mostly limited to marine hard-bodied taxa, and generally involve genera not species. Based on these data, typical background loss is 0.01 genera per million genera per year. Molecular phylogenies are available for more taxa and ecosystems, but it is debated whether they can be used to estimate separately speciation and extinction rates. We selected data to address known concerns and used them to determine median extinction estimates from statistical distributions of probable values for terrestrial plants and animals. We then created simulations to explore effects of violating model assumptions. Finally, we compiled estimates of diversification-the difference between speciation and extinction rates for different taxa. Median estimates of extinction rates ranged from 0.023 to 0.135 E/MSY. Simulation results suggested over- and under-estimation of extinction from individual phylogenies partially canceled each other out when large sets of phylogenies were analyzed. There was no evidence for recent and widespread pre-human overall declines in diversity. This implies that average extinction rates are less than average diversification rates. Median diversification rates were 0.05-0.2 new species per million species per year. On the basis of these results, we concluded that typical rates of background extinction may be closer to 0.1 E/MSY. Thus, current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural

  15. Immigration-extinction dynamics of stochastic populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meerson, Baruch; Ovaskainen, Otso

    2013-07-01

    How high should be the rate of immigration into a stochastic population in order to significantly reduce the probability of observing the population become extinct? Is there any relation between the population size distributions with and without immigration? Under what conditions can one justify the simple patch occupancy models, which ignore the population distribution and its dynamics in a patch, and treat a patch simply as either occupied or empty? We answer these questions by exactly solving a simple stochastic model obtained by adding a steady immigration to a variant of the Verhulst model: a prototypical model of an isolated stochastic population.

  16. Primate extinction risk and historical patterns of speciation and extinction in relation to body mass.

    PubMed

    Matthews, Luke J; Arnold, Christian; Machanda, Zarin; Nunn, Charles L

    2011-04-22

    Body mass is thought to influence diversification rates, but previous studies have produced ambiguous results. We investigated patterns of diversification across 100 trees obtained from a new Bayesian inference of primate phylogeny that sampled trees in proportion to their posterior probabilities. First, we used simulations to assess the validity of previous studies that used linear models to investigate the links between IUCN Red List status and body mass. These analyses support the use of linear models for ordinal ranked data on threat status, and phylogenetic generalized linear models revealed a significant positive correlation between current extinction risk and body mass across our tree block. We then investigated historical patterns of speciation and extinction rates using a recently developed maximum-likelihood method. Specifically, we predicted that body mass correlates positively with extinction rate because larger bodied organisms reproduce more slowly, and body mass correlates negatively with speciation rate because smaller bodied organisms are better able to partition niche space. We failed to find evidence that extinction rates covary with body mass across primate phylogeny. Similarly, the speciation rate was generally unrelated to body mass, except in some tests that indicated an increase in the speciation rate with increasing body mass. Importantly, we discovered that our data violated a key assumption of sample randomness with respect to body mass. After correcting for this bias, we found no association between diversification rates and mass.

  17. Primate extinction risk and historical patterns of speciation and extinction in relation to body mass.

    PubMed

    Matthews, Luke J; Arnold, Christian; Machanda, Zarin; Nunn, Charles L

    2011-04-22

    Body mass is thought to influence diversification rates, but previous studies have produced ambiguous results. We investigated patterns of diversification across 100 trees obtained from a new Bayesian inference of primate phylogeny that sampled trees in proportion to their posterior probabilities. First, we used simulations to assess the validity of previous studies that used linear models to investigate the links between IUCN Red List status and body mass. These analyses support the use of linear models for ordinal ranked data on threat status, and phylogenetic generalized linear models revealed a significant positive correlation between current extinction risk and body mass across our tree block. We then investigated historical patterns of speciation and extinction rates using a recently developed maximum-likelihood method. Specifically, we predicted that body mass correlates positively with extinction rate because larger bodied organisms reproduce more slowly, and body mass correlates negatively with speciation rate because smaller bodied organisms are better able to partition niche space. We failed to find evidence that extinction rates covary with body mass across primate phylogeny. Similarly, the speciation rate was generally unrelated to body mass, except in some tests that indicated an increase in the speciation rate with increasing body mass. Importantly, we discovered that our data violated a key assumption of sample randomness with respect to body mass. After correcting for this bias, we found no association between diversification rates and mass. PMID:20943699

  18. Human population density and extinction risk in the world's carnivores.

    PubMed

    Cardillo, Marcel; Purvis, Andy; Sechrest, Wes; Gittleman, John L; Bielby, Jon; Mace, Georgina M

    2004-07-01

    Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future.

  19. LINE DERIVED INFRARED EXTINCTION TOWARD THE GALACTIC CENTER

    SciTech Connect

    Fritz, T. K.; Gillessen, S.; Dodds-Eden, K.; Lutz, D.; Genzel, R.; Raab, W.; Ott, T.; Pfuhl, O.; Eisenhauer, F.; Yusef-Zadeh, F.

    2011-08-20

    We derive the extinction curve toward the Galactic center (GC) from 1 to 19 {mu}m. We use hydrogen emission lines of the minispiral observed by ISO-SWS and SINFONI. The extinction-free flux reference is the 2 cm continuum emission observed by the Very Large Array. Toward the inner 14'' x 20'', we find an extinction of A{sub 2.166{mu}m} = 2.62 {+-} 0.11, with a power-law slope of {alpha} = -2.11 {+-} 0.06 shortward of 2.8 {mu}m, consistent with the average near-infrared slope from the recent literature. At longer wavelengths, however, we find that the extinction is grayer than shortward of 2.8 {mu}m. We find that it is not possible to fit the observed extinction curve with a dust model consisting of pure carbonaceous and silicate grains only, and the addition of composite particles, including ices, is needed to explain the observations. Combining a distance-dependent extinction with our distance-independent extinction, we derive the distance to the GC to be R{sub 0} = 7.94 {+-} 0.65 kpc. Toward Sgr A* (r < 0.''5), we obtain A{sub H} = 4.21 {+-} 0.10, A{sub Ks} = 2.42 {+-} 0.10, and A{sub L'} = 1.09 {+-} 0.13.

  20. European quaternary refugia: a factor in large carnivore extinction?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Regan, Hannah J.; Turner, Alan; Wilkinson, David M.

    2002-12-01

    The extinction of large carnivores in Europe during the Quaternary is reviewed and the potential role of glacial refugia in these extinctions is investigated using the VORTEX model for population viability analysis. A model was built for a medium sized big cat similar to the extinct Panthera gombaszoegensis utilising life history data from the modern jaguar Panthera onca. This approach highlighted the potential importance of glacial refugia in the extinction process. Even model refugia the size of the Italian peninsula did not guarantee persistence of a population over a 1000 yr time span, illustrating the role of chance in survival in such a refugium. An area the size of the largest Mediterranean island was unable to support a big cat population for a period of 1000 yr. The models also demonstrated the importance of inbreeding as a mechanism for extinction in refugia. It is suggested that repeated genetic bottlenecks during successive glaciations would tend to remove lethal recessive alleles from the population, increasing the probability of survival in refugia in subsequent glaciations. The history of extinction of large carnivores in the European Quaternary is interpreted in the light of these results.

  1. Diversification and extinction patterns among Neogene perimediterranean mammals.

    PubMed

    Jaeger, J J; Hartenberger, J L

    1989-11-01

    The best mammalian fossil record during the Neogene of Western Europe is that of the rodents, the most successful and diversified mammal order. The study of origination and extinction during the Neogene (24-3 Ma BP) in one of the best-documented areas, Spain and southern France, gives an insight into the dynamics of these communities and indicates the possible nature of the driving forces. Three main periods of time show a high rate of origination: the late Burdigalian (17.5 Ma BP), the early Vallesian (11.5-11 Ma BP) and the early Pliocene (4.2-3.8 Ma BP). Two of these high origination-rate periods are immediately followed by important extinction events during which all cohorts are deeply affected (11.5-11 Ma BP and 4.2-3.8 Ma BP). The most important extinction event seems to occur during the early Vallesian (11.5-11 Ma BP), which probably includes the middle/late Miocene boundary. At the Miocene/Pliocene boundary, and during the early Pliocene, the faunal turnover seems to become faster, inducing a strong decrease of the mean species duration. Whereas the main immigration event, which occurs at 17.5 Ma BP, can be related to other faunal migrations in terms of the closure of the Tethys, as it occurs also in eastern Africa and in southwest Asia, the middle/late Miocene boundary event may have been related to a period of ice growth in the Southern Hemisphere. The extinction event that affects the planktonic foraminifera at 12 Ma BP cannot be chronologically correlated to this southwestern European land-mammal extinction event, because the calibration of the marine fossil record during that time-span has to be precise. Some limited terrestrial faunal exchanges that occur during the Messinian between southwestern Europe and northwestern Africa do not deeply affect the general faunal dynamics. Both allochthonous cohorts of immigrants become rapidly extinct. Several endemic rodent faunas, indicating insular conditions, have been reported from the southern edge of the

  2. What Caused the Mass Extinction?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alvarez, Walter; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Presented are the arguments of two different points of view on the mass extinction of the dinosaurs. Evidence of extraterrestrial impact theory and massive volcanic eruption theory are discussed. (CW)

  3. Investigation of ultraviolet interstellar extinction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Payne, C.; Haramundanis, K. L.

    1973-01-01

    Results concerning interstellar extinction in the ultraviolet are reported. These results were initially obtained by using data from main-sequence stars and were extended to include supergiants and emission stars. The principal finding of the analysis of ultraviolet extinction is not only that it is wavelength dependent, but that if changes with galactic longitude in the U3 passband (lambda sub eff = 1621 A); it does not change significantly in the U2 passband (lambda sub eff = 2308 A). Where data are available in the U4 passband (lambda sub eff = 1537 A), they confirm the rapid rise of extinction in the ultraviolet found by other investigators. However, in all cases, emission stars must be used with great caution. It is important to realize that while extinction continues to rise toward shorter wavelengths in the ultraviolet, including the shortest ultraviolet wavelengths measured (1100 A), it no longer plays an important role in the X-ray region (50 A).

  4. Mass extinctions: Ecological diversity maintained

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aberhan, Martin

    2014-03-01

    The end-Permian extinction decimated marine life on an unprecedented scale. However, an analysis of the lifestyles of the surviving genera shows that very little functional diversity was lost at the sea floor.

  5. San Andreas fault earthquake chronology and Lake Cahuilla history at Coachella, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Philibosian, B.; Fumal, T.; Weldon, R.

    2011-01-01

    The southernmost ~100 km of the San Andreas fault has not ruptured historically. It is imperative to determine its rupture history to better predict its future behavior. This paleoseismic investigation in Coachella, California, establishes a chronology of at least five and up to seven major earthquakes during the past ~1100 yr. This chronology yields a range of average recurrence intervals between 116 and 221 yr, depending on assumptions, with a best-estimate average recurrence interval of 180 yr. The most recent earthquake occurred c.1690, more than 300 yr ago, suggesting that this stretch of the fault has accumulated a large amount of tectonic stress and is likely to rupture in the near future, assuming the fault follows a stress renewal model. This study also establishes the timing of the past 5-6 highstands of ancient Lake Cahuilla since A.D. 800.We found that earthquakes do not tend to occur at any particular stage in the lake cycle.

  6. Chronology of ‘killer’ electrons: Solar cycles 22 and 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wrenn, G. L.

    2009-07-01

    Measurements of >2 MeV electrons on GOES satellites from 1986 to 2007 are used to build a graphic chronology of outer radiation belt enhancements. Daily values of L=6.6 equivalent flux are colour coded and ordered by Carrington rotation to illustrate the pattern of occurrence frequency and intensity through the two solar cycles, and to contrast the form of recurrent and non-recurrent events. Highlighted are associations with high solar wind speed and southward interplanetary magnetic field that are clearly key to the energisation process, inducing high levels of geomagnetic activity during the growth phase. The chronology is offered as a simple background reference for the specific event case studies that are needed to understand the physical processes responsible for the production and dynamics of these relativistic electrons and their consequent internal electrostatic discharge threat to spacecraft systems. It is now possible to refine an empirical model for the solar cycle variation of this threat.

  7. Chronology of Postglacial Eruptive Activity and Calculation of Eruption Probabilities for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nathenson, Manuel; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Champion, Duane E.; Lowenstern, Jacob B.

    2007-01-01

    Medicine Lake volcano has had 4 eruptive episodes in its postglacial history (since 13,000 years ago) comprising 16 eruptions. Time intervals between events within the episodes are relatively short, whereas time intervals between the episodes are much longer. An updated radiocarbon chronology for these eruptions is presented that uses paleomagnetic data to constrain the choice of calibrated ages. This chronology is used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to model the data for time intervals between eruptions. The mixed exponential distribution is the best match to the data and provides estimates for the conditional probability of a future eruption given the time since the last eruption. The probability of an eruption at Medicine Lake volcano in the next year from today is 0.00028.

  8. Dating the End of the Greek Bronze Age: A Robust Radiocarbon-Based Chronology from Assiros Toumba

    PubMed Central

    Wardle, Kenneth; Higham, Thomas; Kromer, Bernd

    2014-01-01

    Over 60 recent analyses of animal bones, plant remains, and building timbers from Assiros in northern Greece form an unique series from the 14th to the 10th century BC. With the exception of Thera, the number of 14C determinations from other Late Bronze Age sites in Greece has been small and their contribution to chronologies minimal. The absolute dates determined for Assiros through Bayesian modelling are both consistent and unexpected, since they are systematically earlier than the conventional chronologies of southern Greece by between 70 and 100 years. They have not been skewed by reference to assumed historical dates used as priors. They support high rather than low Iron Age chronologies from Spain to Israel where the merits of each are fiercely debated but remain unresolved. PMID:25222862

  9. Dating the end of the Greek Bronze Age: a robust radiocarbon-based chronology from Assiros Toumba.

    PubMed

    Wardle, Kenneth; Higham, Thomas; Kromer, Bernd

    2014-01-01

    Over 60 recent analyses of animal bones, plant remains, and building timbers from Assiros in northern Greece form an unique series from the 14th to the 10th century BC. With the exception of Thera, the number of 14C determinations from other Late Bronze Age sites in Greece has been small and their contribution to chronologies minimal. The absolute dates determined for Assiros through Bayesian modelling are both consistent and unexpected, since they are systematically earlier than the conventional chronologies of southern Greece by between 70 and 100 years. They have not been skewed by reference to assumed historical dates used as priors. They support high rather than low Iron Age chronologies from Spain to Israel where the merits of each are fiercely debated but remain unresolved.

  10. Dating the end of the Greek Bronze Age: a robust radiocarbon-based chronology from Assiros Toumba.

    PubMed

    Wardle, Kenneth; Higham, Thomas; Kromer, Bernd

    2014-01-01

    Over 60 recent analyses of animal bones, plant remains, and building timbers from Assiros in northern Greece form an unique series from the 14th to the 10th century BC. With the exception of Thera, the number of 14C determinations from other Late Bronze Age sites in Greece has been small and their contribution to chronologies minimal. The absolute dates determined for Assiros through Bayesian modelling are both consistent and unexpected, since they are systematically earlier than the conventional chronologies of southern Greece by between 70 and 100 years. They have not been skewed by reference to assumed historical dates used as priors. They support high rather than low Iron Age chronologies from Spain to Israel where the merits of each are fiercely debated but remain unresolved. PMID:25222862

  11. Series cell light extinction monitor

    DOEpatents

    Novick, Vincent J.

    1990-01-01

    A method and apparatus for using the light extinction measurements from two or more light cells positioned along a gasflow chamber in which the gas volumetric rate is known to determine particle number concentration and mass concentration of an aerosol independent of extinction coefficient and to determine estimates for particle size and mass concentrations. The invention is independent of particle size. This invention has application to measurements made during a severe nuclear reactor fuel damage test.

  12. The Sixth Great Mass Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wagler, Ron

    2012-01-01

    Five past great mass extinctions have occurred during Earth's history. Humanity is currently in the midst of a sixth, human-induced great mass extinction of plant and animal life (e.g., Alroy 2008; Jackson 2008; Lewis 2006; McDaniel and Borton 2002; Rockstrom et al. 2009; Rohr et al. 2008; Steffen, Crutzen, and McNeill 2007; Thomas et al. 2004;…

  13. Origin and chronology of chondritic components: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krot, A. N.; Amelin, Y.; Bland, P.; Ciesla, F. J.; Connelly, J.; Davis, A. M.; Huss, G. R.; Hutcheon, I. D.; Makide, K.; Nagashima, K.; Nyquist, L. E.; Russell, S. S.; Scott, E. R. D.; Thrane, K.; Yurimoto, H.; Yin, Q.-Z.

    2009-09-01

    Mineralogical observations, chemical and oxygen-isotope compositions, absolute 207Pb- 206Pb ages and short-lived isotope systematics ( 7Be- 7Li, 10Be- 10B, 26Al- 26Mg, 36Cl- 36S, 41Ca- 41K, 53Mn- 53Cr, 60Fe- 60Ni, 182Hf- 182W) of refractory inclusions [Ca,Al-rich inclusions (CAIs) and amoeboid olivine aggregates (AOAs)], chondrules and matrices from primitive (unmetamorphosed) chondrites are reviewed in an attempt to test (i) the x-wind model vs. the shock-wave model of the origin of chondritic components and (ii) irradiation vs. stellar origin of short-lived radionuclides. The data reviewed are consistent with an external, stellar origin for most short-lived radionuclides ( 7Be, 10Be, and 36Cl are important exceptions) and a shock-wave model for chondrule formation, and provide a sound basis for early Solar System chronology. They are inconsistent with the x-wind model for the origin of chondritic components and a local, irradiation origin of 26Al, 41Ca, and 53Mn. 10Be is heterogeneously distributed among CAIs, indicating its formation by local irradiation and precluding its use for the early solar system chronology. 41Ca- 41K, and 60Fe- 60Ni systematics are important for understanding the astrophysical setting of Solar System formation and origin of short-lived radionuclides, but so far have limited implications for the chronology of chondritic components. The chronological significance of oxygen-isotope compositions of chondritic components is limited. The following general picture of formation of chondritic components is inferred. CAIs and AOAs were the first solids formed in the solar nebula ˜4567-4568 Myr ago, possibly within a period of <0.1 Myr, when the Sun was an infalling (class 0) and evolved (class I) protostar. They formed during multiple transient heating events in nebular region(s) with high ambient temperature (at or above condensation temperature of forsterite), either throughout the inner protoplanetary disk (1-4 AU) or in a localized region

  14. Molecular biomarkers for chronological age in animal ecology.

    PubMed

    Jarman, Simon N; Polanowski, Andrea M; Faux, Cassandra E; Robbins, Jooke; De Paoli-Iseppi, Ricardo; Bravington, Mark; Deagle, Bruce E

    2015-10-01

    The chronological age of an individual animal predicts many of its biological characteristics, and these in turn influence population-level ecological processes. Animal age information can therefore be valuable in ecological research, but many species have no external features that allow age to be reliably determined. Molecular age biomarkers provide a potential solution to this problem. Research in this area of molecular ecology has so far focused on a limited range of age biomarkers. The most commonly tested molecular age biomarker is change in average telomere length, which predicts age well in a small number of species and tissues, but performs poorly in many other situations. Epigenetic regulation of gene expression has recently been shown to cause age-related modifications to DNA and to cause changes in abundance of several RNA types throughout animal lifespans. Age biomarkers based on these epigenetic changes, and other new DNA-based assays, have already been applied to model organisms, humans and a limited number of wild animals. There is clear potential to apply these marker types more widely in ecological studies. For many species, these new approaches will produce age estimates where this was previously impractical. They will also enable age information to be gathered in cross-sectional studies and expand the range of demographic characteristics that can be quantified with molecular methods. We describe the range of molecular age biomarkers that have been investigated to date and suggest approaches for developing the newer marker types as age assays in nonmodel animal species.

  15. Orbital debris and near-Earth environmental management: A chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Portree, David S. F.; Loftus, Joseph P., Jr.

    1993-01-01

    This chronology covers the 32-year history of orbital debris and near-Earth environmental concerns. It tracks near-Earth environmental hazard creation, research, observation, experimentation, management, mitigation, protection, and policy-making, with emphasis on the orbital debris problem. Included are the Project West Ford experiments; Soviet ASAT tests and U.S. Delta upper stage explosions; the Ariane V16 explosion, U.N. treaties pertinent to near-Earth environmental problems, the PARCS tests; space nuclear power issues, the SPS/orbital debris link; Space Shuttle and space station orbital debris issues; the Solwind ASAT test; milestones in theory and modeling the Cosmos 954, Salyut 7, and Skylab reentries; the orbital debris/meteoroid research link; detection system development; orbital debris shielding development; popular culture and orbital debris; Solar Max results; LDEF results; orbital debris issues peculiar to geosynchronous orbit, including reboost policies and the stable plane; seminal papers, reports, and studies; the increasing effects of space activities on astronomy; and growing international awareness of the near-Earth environment.

  16. Stress-enhanced fear learning in rats is resistant to the effects of immediate massed extinction.

    PubMed

    Long, Virginia A; Fanselow, Michael S

    2012-11-01

    Enhanced fear learning occurs subsequent to traumatic or stressful events and is a persistent challenge to the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Facilitation of learning produced by prior stress can elicit an exaggerated fear response to a minimally aversive event or stimulus. Stress-enhanced fear learning (SEFL) is a rat model of PTSD; rats previously exposed to the SEFL 15 electrical shocks procedure exhibit several behavioral responses similar to those seen in patients with PTSD. However, past reports found that SEFL is not mitigated by extinction (a model of exposure therapy) when the spaced extinction began 24 h after stress. Recent studies found that extinction from 10 min to 1 h subsequent to fear conditioning "erased" learning, whereas later extinction, occurring from 24 to 72 h after conditioning did not. Other studies indicate that massed extinction is more effective than spaced procedures. Therefore, we examined the time-dependent nature of extinction on the stress-induced enhancement of fear learning using a massed trial's procedure. Experimental rats received 15 foot shocks and were given either no extinction or massed extinction 10 min or 72 h later. Our present data indicate that SEFL, following traumatic stress, is resistant to immediate massed extinction. Experimental rats showed exaggerated new fear learning regardless of when extinction training occurred. Thus, post-traumatic reactivity such as SEFL does not seem responsive to extinction treatments.

  17. Communications between Mitochondria, the Nucleus, Vacuoles, Peroxisomes, the Endoplasmic Reticulum, the Plasma Membrane, Lipid Droplets, and the Cytosol during Yeast Chronological Aging

    PubMed Central

    Dakik, Pamela; Titorenko, Vladimir I.

    2016-01-01

    Studies employing the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae as a model organism have provided deep insights into molecular mechanisms of cellular and organismal aging in multicellular eukaryotes and have demonstrated that the main features of biological aging are evolutionarily conserved. Aging in S. cerevisiae is studied by measuring replicative or chronological lifespan. Yeast replicative aging is likely to model aging of mitotically competent human cell types, while yeast chronological aging is believed to mimic aging of post-mitotic human cell types. Emergent evidence implies that various organelle-organelle and organelle-cytosol communications play essential roles in chronological aging of S. cerevisiae. The molecular mechanisms underlying the vital roles of intercompartmental communications in yeast chronological aging have begun to emerge. The scope of this review is to critically analyze recent progress in understanding such mechanisms. Our analysis suggests a model for how temporally and spatially coordinated movements of certain metabolites between various cellular compartments impact yeast chronological aging. In our model, diverse changes in these key metabolites are restricted to critical longevity-defining periods of chronological lifespan. In each of these periods, a limited set of proteins responds to such changes of the metabolites by altering the rate and efficiency of a certain cellular process essential for longevity regulation. Spatiotemporal dynamics of alterations in these longevity-defining cellular processes orchestrates the development and maintenance of a pro- or anti-aging cellular pattern. PMID:27729926

  18. Dust extinction of the stellar continua in starburst galaxies: The ultraviolet and optical extinction law

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Calzetti, Daniela; Kinney, Anne L.; Storchi-Bergmann, Thaisa

    1994-01-01

    We analyze the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) UV and the optical spectra of 39 starburst and blue compact galaxies in order to study the average properties of dust extinction in extended regions of galaxies. The optical spectra have been obtained using an aperture which matches that of IUE, so comparable regions within each galaxy are sampled. The data from the 39 galaxies are compared with five models for the geometrical distribution of dust, adopting as extinction laws both the Milky Way and the Large Magellanic Cloud laws. The commonly used uniform dust screen is included among the models. We find that none of the five models is in satisfactory agreement with the data. In order to understand the discrepancy between the data and the models, we have derived an extinction law directly from the data in the UV and optical wavelength range. The resulting curve is characterized by an overall slope which is more gray than the Milky Way extinction law's slope, and by the absence of the 2175 A dust feature. Remarkably, the difference in optical depth between the Balmer emission lines H(sub alpha) and H(sub beta) is about a factor of 2 larger than the difference in the optical depth between the continuum underlying the two Balmer lines. We interpret this discrepancy as a consequence of the fact that the hot ionizing stars are associated with dustier regions than the cold stellar population is. The absence of the 2175 A dust feature can be due either to the effects of the scattering and clumpiness of the dust or to a chemical composition different from that of the Milky Way dust grains. Disentangling the two interpretations is not easy because of the complexity of the spatial distribution of the emitting regions. The extinction law of the UV and optical spectral continua of extended regions can be applied to the spectra of medium- and high-redshift galaxies, where extended regions of a galaxy are, by necessity, sampled.

  19. Testing teleconnections - chronological uncertainties of independently dated and tuned past climate events (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blaauw, M.; Wohlfarth, B.

    2010-12-01

    Multiple fossil proxy archives are often dated by aligning purportedly simultaneous events between data sets. Examples are synchronising peat layers across countries or continents, orbital tuning, and dating cores through aligning proxy features with δ18O series from marine and ice deposits. Any temporal mismatch between multiple sites are then attributed to chronological errors, e.g., changing 14C age offsets, unidentified hiatuses or other mistakes in age-models. However, tuning involves the real danger of erroneously "sucking" separate events into one illusionary event, or vice versa. As an alternative, past climate events can be dated independently (e.g. using 14C dating), while explicitly quantifying their chronological uncertainties. Instead of assuming simultaneous climate events between multiple archives, the age models are kept separate, and the timing of events tested by calculating the probability of simultaneous events within a defined period of time. The method is tested by comparing Dansgaard/Oeschger-like events in two well-dated sites; Les Echets in France and NGRIP in Greenland. Chronological uncertainties are so high that we cannot safely assume that climate events were synchronous between sites at decadal to multi-centennial time scales. Past climate research would profit if tuning procedures would become more quantitative, reliable and objective. Ideally, individual proxy archives should not be tuned, and kept on independent time-scales.

  20. Probing the Role of Carbon in the Interstellar Ultraviolet Extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, Ajay; Li, Aigen

    2015-08-01

    We probe the role of carbon in the ultraviolet (UV) extinction by examining the relations between the amount of carbon required to be locked up in dust {[{{C}}/{{H}}]}{dust} with the 2175 \\mathringA extinction bump and the far-UV extinction rise, based on an analysis of the extinction curves along 16 Galactic sightlines for which the gas-phase carbon abundance is known and the 2175 \\mathringA extinction bump exhibits variable strengths and widths. We derive {[{{C}}/{{H}}]}{dust} from the Kramers-Kronig relation which relates the wavelength-integrated extinction to the total dust volume. This approach is less model-dependent since it does not require the knowledge of the detailed optical properties and size distribution of the dust.We also derive {[{{C}}/{{H}}]}{dust} from fitting the observed UV/optical/near-infrared extinction with a mixture of amorphous silicate and graphite. We find that the carbon depletion {[{{C}}/{{H}}]}{dust} tends to correlate with the strength of the 2175 \\mathringA bump, while the abundance of silicon depleted in dust shows no correlation with the 2175 \\mathringA bump. This supports graphite or polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon molecules as the possible carrier of the 2175 \\mathringA bump. We also see that {[{{C}}/{{H}}]}{dust} shows a trend of correlating with 1/{R}V, where RV is the total-to-selective extinction ratio, suggesting that the far-UV extinction is more likely produced by small carbon dust than by small silicate dust.

  1. Theories of the dorsal bundle extinction effect.

    PubMed

    Mason, S T; Iversen, S D

    1979-07-01

    Selective destruction of the noradrenaline systems in the rat brain using the neurotoxin 6-hydroxydopamine has been found to cause resistance to extinction in a number of behavioural situations. Several theories concerning the behavioural mechanism altered by the lesion, and hence about the role of noradrenaline in normal brain functioning, are proposed and evaluated. Theories suggesting a role for noradrenaline in activity, perseveration, internal inhibition, frustrative non-reward, motivation, or secondary reinforcement, fail to explain all the available evidence and direct tests of each theory fails to support its predictions. A model which suggests that noreadrenaline is involved in attentional behaviour, specifically in filtering out or learning to ignore irrelevant environmental stimuli, is successful in explaining all available data and direct tests of the lesioned rats' attentional capacity serve to confirm many of the predictions of an attentional theory of the dorsal bundle extinction effect.

  2. Visuomotor links in awareness: evidence from extinction.

    PubMed

    Ricci, Raffaella; Genero, Rosanna; Colombatti, Simona; Zampieri, Daniela; Chatterjee, Anjan

    2005-05-31

    In patients with extinction, ipsilesional stimuli may abolish awareness of contralesional stimuli. Explanations of extinction often assume a serial model of processing in which sensory competition and identification precedes the selection of responses. We tested the adequacy of this assumption by examining the effects of response variables on visual awareness in six patients using signal detection analysis. Ipsilesional stimuli modulated patients' response criteria in deciding whether a contralesional stimulus was a target, and response modality (verbal or motor) modulated patients' abilities to discriminate between contralesional targets and distractors. This pattern of input variables modulating response criteria and output variables modulating discriminability indicates the extent to which attentional and intentional systems are tightly intertwined, with bi-directional effects in producing visual awareness.

  3. Inter-comparison of MAX-DOAS Retrieved Vertical Profiles of Aerosol Extinction, SO2 and NO2 in the Alberta Oil Sands with LIDAR Data and GEM-MACH Air Quality Model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Zoe; Friess, Udo; Strawbridge, Kevin; Whiteway, James; Aggarwal, Monika; Makar, Paul; Li, Shao-Meng; O'Brien, Jason; Baray, Sabour; Schnitzler, Elijah; Olfert, Jason S.; Osthoff, Hans D.; Lobo, Akshay; McLaren, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Understanding industrial emissions of trace gas pollutants in the Alberta oil sands is essential to maintaining air quality standards and informing public policy. Multi-Axis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) measurements of trace gases can improve knowledge of pollutant levels, vertical distribution and chemical transformation. During an intensive air measurement campaign to study emissions, transport, transformation and deposition of oil sands air pollutants from August to September of 2013, a MAX-DOAS instrument was deployed at a site north of Fort McMurray, Alberta to determine the vertical profiles of aerosol extinction, NO2 and SO2 through retrieval from the MAX-DOAS spectral measurements using an optimal estimation method. The large complement of data collected from multiple instruments deployed during this field campaign provides a unique opportunity to validate and characterize the performance of the MAX-DOAS vertical profile retrievals. Aerosol extinction profiles determined from two Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) instruments, one collocated and the other on a Twin Otter aircraft that flew over the site during the study, will be compared to the MAX-DOAS aerosol extinction profile retrievals. Vertical profiles of NO2 and SO2 retrieved from the MAX-DOAS measurements will be further compared with the composite vertical profiles measured from the flights of a second aircraft, the NRC-Convair 580, over the field site during the same measurement period. Finally, the MAX-DOAS retrieved tropospheric vertical column densities (VCDs) of SO2 and NO2 will be compared to the predicted VCDs from Environment and Climate Change Canada's Global Environmental Multi-scale - Modelling Air quality and Chemistry (GEM-MACH) air quality model over the grid cell containing the field site. Emission estimates of SO2 from the major oil mining facility Syncrude Mildred Lake using the MAX-DOAS VCD results, validated through the detailed characterization above

  4. Instabilities of diffusion flames near extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papas, Paul; Rais, Redha M.; Monkewitz, Peter A.; Tomboulides, Ananias G.

    2003-12-01

    The linear spatio-temporal stability of a diffusion flame, represented by a simplified one-dimensional model, located in a mixing layer is investigated. The analysis focuses on recently discovered `heat release' or combustion modes reported for flames near the extinction limit, i.e. for low Damköhler number. Numerical simulations of the two-dimensional linearized impulse response are performed to uncover the convective versus absolute nature of these combustion modes. To complement these two-dimensional simulations, the convective absolute transitions of these modes are confirmed with spatio-temporal linear stability calculations. The effects of initial reactant temperature, flow shear Reynolds number, as well as low fuel Lewis number, are explored. In addition to the Kelvin Helmholtz mode, the generalized model predicts a variety of instabilities near the extinction state, such as travelling and stationary cellular modes, zero wavenumber instabilities or `pulsations', and coupled hydrodynamic-combustion modes. The results elucidate the fundamental destabilizing mechanisms for these near-extinction flames and their relationship to previous work.

  5. Mass Extinctions' Selectivity on the Diversity of Marine Modes of Life

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, C.; Saux, J.; Heim, N.; Payne, J.

    2015-12-01

    A mass extinction is defined by a substantial increase in extinction rates, resulting in a loss of biological and ecological diversity. However, a mass extinction's taxonomic severity does not always correlate with its ecological severity (Droser et al. 2009). Using the fossil record, one can reconstruct the relationships between extinct biota and past environments through extrapolating evidence of an organism's feeding, tiering, and motility based on its functional morphology and analogies with its extant relatives. We used Bush, Bambach, and Daly's conceptual model of marine ecospace to study marine modes of life. We looked at the number of different ecological modes over time, and observed that this curve roughly parallels Sepkoski's generic diversity over time in that the number of ecological modes generally increases over time. Then we measured the selectivity of each mass extinction in log-odds using logistic regression. Here we compiled a "heat map" of the selectivity of 5 major mass extinctions based on the life mode of each marine genus in our dataset. Additionally, we looked at the standard deviation of the log-odds of extinction, which shows how uniform the selectivity of the mass extinction is across all life modes (i.e. a small standard deviation points to a more uniform selectivity among life modes). Ecological diversity was impacted by the mass extinctions: the end-Permian (Changhsingian) mass extinction had less variation in log-odds of extinction, whereas the other mass extinctions had a greater range of standard deviation of the log-odds of extinction. Three of the five mass extinctions (Famennian, Rhaetian, and Maastrichtian) were more ecologically selective than the others (Hirnantian and Changhsingian), which indicate that these two had factors that affected most marine life modes equally. In conclusion, not all mass extinctions had the same ecological effect.

  6. Photoaging and chronological aging profile: Understanding oxidation of the skin.

    PubMed

    Peres, P S; Terra, V A; Guarnier, F A; Cecchini, R; Cecchini, A L

    2011-05-01

    The impact of chronological aging and photoaging on the skin is particularly concerning, especially when oxidative stress is involved. This article provides evidence of quantitative and qualitative differences in the oxidative stress generated by chronological aging and photoaging of the skin in HRS/J hairless mice. Analysis of the results revealed an increase in lipid peroxides as the skin gets older and in photoaged skin (10.086 ± 0.70 η MDA/mg and 14.303 ± 1.81 η MDA/mg protein, respectively), although protein oxidation was only verified in chronological aged skin (15.449 ± 0.99 η protein/mg protein). The difference between both skin types is the decay in the capacity of lipid membrane turnover revealed by the dislocation of older skin to the left in the chemiluminescence curve. Imbalance between antioxidant and oxidation processes was verified by the decrease in total antioxidant capacity of chronological and photoaged skins. Although superoxide dismutase remained unchanged, catalase increased in the 18 and 48-week-old skin groups and decreased in irradiated mice, demonstrating that neither enzyme is a good parameter to determine oxidative stress. The differences observed between chronological and photoaging skin represent a potential new approach to understanding the phenomenon of skin aging and a new target for therapeutic intervention. PMID:21356598

  7. Photoaging and chronological aging profile: Understanding oxidation of the skin.

    PubMed

    Peres, P S; Terra, V A; Guarnier, F A; Cecchini, R; Cecchini, A L

    2011-05-01

    The impact of chronological aging and photoaging on the skin is particularly concerning, especially when oxidative stress is involved. This article provides evidence of quantitative and qualitative differences in the oxidative stress generated by chronological aging and photoaging of the skin in HRS/J hairless mice. Analysis of the results revealed an increase in lipid peroxides as the skin gets older and in photoaged skin (10.086 ± 0.70 η MDA/mg and 14.303 ± 1.81 η MDA/mg protein, respectively), although protein oxidation was only verified in chronological aged skin (15.449 ± 0.99 η protein/mg protein). The difference between both skin types is the decay in the capacity of lipid membrane turnover revealed by the dislocation of older skin to the left in the chemiluminescence curve. Imbalance between antioxidant and oxidation processes was verified by the decrease in total antioxidant capacity of chronological and photoaged skins. Although superoxide dismutase remained unchanged, catalase increased in the 18 and 48-week-old skin groups and decreased in irradiated mice, demonstrating that neither enzyme is a good parameter to determine oxidative stress. The differences observed between chronological and photoaging skin represent a potential new approach to understanding the phenomenon of skin aging and a new target for therapeutic intervention.

  8. Global late Quaternary megafauna extinctions linked to humans, not climate change

    PubMed Central

    Sandom, Christopher; Faurby, Søren; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2014-01-01

    The late Quaternary megafauna extinction was a severe global-scale event. Two factors, climate change and modern humans, have received broad support as the primary drivers, but their absolute and relative importance remains controversial. To date, focus has been on the extinction chronology of individual or small groups of species, specific geographical regions or macroscale studies at very coarse geographical and taxonomic resolution, limiting the possibility of adequately testing the proposed hypotheses. We present, to our knowledge, the first global analysis of this extinction based on comprehensive country-level data on the geographical distribution of all large mammal species (more than or equal to 10 kg) that have gone globally or continentally extinct between the beginning of the Last Interglacial at 132 000 years BP and the late Holocene 1000 years BP, testing the relative roles played by glacial–interglacial climate change and humans. We show that the severity of extinction is strongly tied to hominin palaeobiogeography, with at most a weak, Eurasia-specific link to climate change. This first species-level macroscale analysis at relatively high geographical resolution provides strong support for modern humans as the primary driver of the worldwide megafauna losses during the late Quaternary. PMID:24898370

  9. Global late Quaternary megafauna extinctions linked to humans, not climate change.

    PubMed

    Sandom, Christopher; Faurby, Søren; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2014-07-22

    The late Quaternary megafauna extinction was a severe global-scale event. Two factors, climate change and modern humans, have received broad support as the primary drivers, but their absolute and relative importance remains controversial. To date, focus has been on the extinction chronology of individual or small groups of species, specific geographical regions or macroscale studies at very coarse geographical and taxonomic resolution, limiting the possibility of adequately testing the proposed hypotheses. We present, to our knowledge, the first global analysis of this extinction based on comprehensive country-level data on the geographical distribution of all large mammal species (more than or equal to 10 kg) that have gone globally or continentally extinct between the beginning of the Last Interglacial at 132,000 years BP and the late Holocene 1000 years BP, testing the relative roles played by glacial-interglacial climate change and humans. We show that the severity of extinction is strongly tied to hominin palaeobiogeography, with at most a weak, Eurasia-specific link to climate change. This first species-level macroscale analysis at relatively high geographical resolution provides strong support for modern humans as the primary driver of the worldwide megafauna losses during the late Quaternary.

  10. A requirement for memory retrieval during and after long-term extinction learning.

    PubMed

    Ouyang, Ming; Thomas, Steven A

    2005-06-28

    Current learning theories are based on the idea that learning is driven by the difference between expectations and experience (the delta rule). In extinction, one learns that certain expectations no longer apply. Here, we test the potential validity of the delta rule by manipulating memory retrieval (and thus expectations) during extinction learning. Adrenergic signaling is critical for the time-limited retrieval (but not acquisition or consolidation) of contextual fear. Using genetic and pharmacologic approaches to manipulate adrenergic signaling, we find that long-term extinction requires memory retrieval but not conditioned responding. Identical manipulations of the adrenergic system that do not affect memory retrieval do not alter extinction. The results provide substantial support for the delta rule of learning theory. In addition, the timing over which extinction is sensitive to adrenergic manipulation suggests a model whereby memory retrieval occurs during, and several hours after, extinction learning to consolidate long-term extinction memory.

  11. Chronology and ancient feeding ecology of two upper Pleistocene megamammals from the Brazilian Intertropical Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Melo França, Lucas; Trindade Dantas, Mário André; Bocchiglieri, Adriana; Cherckinsky, Alexander; de Souza Ribeiro, Adauto; Bocherens, Hervé

    2014-09-01

    In Brazilian Intertropical Region (BIR) fossil remains of the giant ground sloth Eremotherium laurillardi (Lund, 1842) and of the proboscidean Notiomastodon platensis (Ameghino, 1888) are the most abundant among megaherbivores. However, the paleoecology of both species needs to be better understood to enlighten why these species disappear in the end of the Pleistocene, an issue that is still debated. During the last decades, the carbon and oxygen stable isotopes have been increasingly being used to obtain paleoecological information about extinct animals, although this information is in most cases dissociated from chronological data. Thus, the main objective of this study is to contribute to the knowledge about feeding ecology and chronology of E. laurillardi and N. platensis within BIR. For each fossil sample we performed stable isotopes analyses (δ13C/δ18O) and radiocarbon dating (14C with AMS). The results showed that N. platensis occurred between 12,125 and 19,594 cal yr BP and exhibited a grazer diet (δ13C = -1.1‰-1.3‰), while E. laurillardi lived between 11,084 and 27,690 cal yr BP, with a mixed feeder diet (C3/C4 plants; values ratio δ13C = -7.7‰ to -3.3‰). The δ18O values of N. platensis ranged between 2.20‰ and 3.60‰, while the values of E. laurillardi ranged between -3.10‰ and -1.10‰. Neither species did exhibit differences in its diet through time, which suggests that the vegetational composition of this locality did not vary in the late Pleistocene. Both species were living in an open environment, rich in herbaceous plants (C4 plants) and with tree and shrub with disjoint distribution, maybe similar to some parts of recent Caatinga, where they have partitioned the spatial and feeding niches.

  12. Arenavirus extinction through lethal mutagenesis.

    PubMed

    de la Torre, Juan Carlos

    2005-02-01

    Viral hemorrhagic fevers represent serious human public health problems causing devastating and often lethal disease. Several hemorrhagic fevers are caused by arenaviruses including Lassa fever virus (LFV) and the South American viral hemorrhagic fevers (SAHF). In recent years, increased air travel between Africa and other areas has led to the importation of LFV into the US, Europe, Japan, and Canada. This has raised awareness about arenaviruses as potential emerging viruses. Moreover, because of its severe morbidity and high mortality, and transmissibility from human to human, weaponized forms of LFV poses a real threat as agent of bioterrorism. No licensed vaccine is available in the US, and currently there is not efficacious therapy to treat these infections. Therefore, the importance of developing novel effective antiviral drugs to combat HF arenaviruses, for which the prototypic Arenavirus lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) provides us with an excellent model system. Recent findings have shown that LCMV multiplication both in cultured cells and in vivo is highly susceptible to the mutagenic agent 5-fluorouracil (FU). FU-mediated extinction of LCMV was associated with only modest increases in virus mutation frequencies, but did not significantly affect virus replication and transcription, or virus particle formation. These findings indicate that, as with other riboviruses, lethal mutagenesis is effective also against LCMV raising the possibility of using this novel antiviral strategy to combat pathogenic arenaviruses. PMID:15649566

  13. On the Assimilation of Tree-Ring-Width Chronologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acevedo, Walter; Reich, Sebastian; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2015-04-01

    Data assimilation (DA) of climate proxy records is currently acknowledged as a promising approach to the paleoclimate reconstruction problem, with the potential to bring physical consistency to reconstructed fields. Previous paleo-DA studies have typically assumed a linear relationship between climate forcing and the resulting proxy data, whereas there exist growing evidence of complex, potentially non-linear, proxy formation processes. Accordingly, it appears natural to simulate the proxy response to climate in a more realistic fashion, by way of proxy-specific forward models. Following this train of thought, we investigate the assimilation of the most traditional climate proxy type, Tree-Ring-Width (TRW) chronologies, using the process-based tree-ring growth forward model Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite (VSL) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques. Used as observation operator, VSL's formulation implies three compounding, challenging features: (i) time averaging, (ii) "switching recording" of 2 variables and (iii) bounded response windows leading to "thresholded response". DA experiments involving VSL-based pseudo-TRW observations are performed first for a chaotic 2-scale dynamical system, used as a cartoon of the atmosphere-land system, and then for an atmospheric general circulation model of intermediate complexity. Our results reveal that VSL's nonlinearities may considerable deteriorate the performance of EnKF for Time-Averaged (TA) estimation, as compared to the utilization of a TA linear observation operator. Moreover, we show that this assimilation skill loss can be considerably reduced by embedding VSL's formulation into fuzzy logic theory, which fosters new interpretations of tree-ring growth limitation processes.

  14. Extinction as a driver of avian latitudinal diversity gradients.

    PubMed

    Pulido-Santacruz, Paola; Weir, Jason T

    2016-04-01

    The role of historical factors in driving latitudinal diversity gradients is poorly understood. Here, we used an updated global phylogeny of terrestrial birds to test the role of three key historical factors-speciation, extinction, and dispersal rates-in generating latitudinal diversity gradients for eight major clades. We fit a model that allows speciation, extinction, and dispersal rates to differ, both with latitude and between the New and Old World. Our results consistently support extinction (all clades had lowest extinction where species richness was highest) as a key driver of species richness gradients across each of eight major clades. In contrast, speciation and dispersal rates showed no consistent latitudinal patterns across replicate bird clades, and thus are unlikely to represent general underlying drivers of latitudinal diversity gradients. PMID:26940812

  15. Common processes may contribute to extinction and habituation.

    PubMed

    McSweeney, Frances K; Swindell, Samantha

    2002-10-01

    Psychologists routinely attribute the characteristics of conditioned behavior to complicated cognitive processes. For example, many of the characteristics of behavior undergoing extinction have been attributed to retrieval from memory. The authors argue that these characteristics may result from the simpler process of habituation. In particular, conditioned responding may decrease during extinction partially because habituation occurs to the stimuli that control responding when those stimuli are presented repeatedly or for a prolonged time (e.g., the experimental context, the conditioned stimulus in classical conditioning). This idea is parsimonious, has face validity, and evokes only processes that are well established by other evidence. In addition, behavior undergoing extinction shows 12 of the fundamental properties of behavior undergoing habituation. However, this model probably cannot provide a complete theory of extinction. It provides no obvious explanation for some of the other characteristics of extinguished behavior.

  16. Rarity value and species extinction: the anthropogenic Allee effect.

    PubMed

    Courchamp, Franck; Angulo, Elena; Rivalan, Philippe; Hall, Richard J; Signoret, Laetitia; Bull, Leigh; Meinard, Yves

    2006-11-01

    Standard economic theory predicts that exploitation alone is unlikely to result in species extinction because of the escalating costs of finding the last individuals of a declining species. We argue that the human predisposition to place exaggerated value on rarity fuels disproportionate exploitation of rare species, rendering them even rarer and thus more desirable, ultimately leading them into an extinction vortex. Here we present a simple mathematical model and various empirical examples to show how the value attributed to rarity in some human activities could precipitate the extinction of rare species-a concept that we term the anthropogenic Allee effect. The alarming finding that human perception of rarity can precipitate species extinction has serious implications for the conservation of species that are rare or that may become so, be they charismatic and emblematic or simply likely to become fashionable for certain activities.

  17. Evolution and Extinction Dynamics in Rugged Fitness Landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibani, Paolo; Brandt, Michael; Alstrøm, Preben

    After an introductory section summarizing the paleontological data and some of their theoretical descriptions, we describe the "reset" model and its (in part analytically soluble) mean field version, which have been briefly introduced in Letters.1,2 Macroevolution is considered as a problem of stochastic dynamics in a system with many competing agents. Evolutionary events (speciations and extinctions) are triggered by fitness records found by random exploration of the agents' fitness landscapes. As a consequence, the average fitness in the system increases logarithmically with time, while the rate of extinction steadily decreases. This non-stationary dynamics is studied by numerical simulations and, in a simpler mean field version, analytically. We also consider the effect of externally added "mass" extinctions. The predictions for various quantities of paleontological interest (life-time distribution, distribution of event sizes and behavior of the rate of extinction) are robust and in good agreement with available data.

  18. Protein synthesis subserves reconsolidation or extinction depending on reminder duration.

    PubMed

    Pedreira, María Eugenia; Maldonado, Héctor

    2003-06-19

    When learned associations are recalled from long-term memory stores by presentation of an unreinforced conditioned stimulus (CS), two processes are initiated. One, termed reconsolidation, re-activates the association between the conditioned and unconditioned stimuli and transfers it from a stable protein synthesis-independent form of storage to a more labile protein-dependent state. The other is an extinction process in which presentation of the CS alone degrades the association between CS and US. To address the mechanistic relationship between reconsolidation and extinction, we have used an invertebrate model of contextual memory, which involves an association between the learning context and a visual danger stimulus. Here, we show that re-exposure duration to the learning context acts as a switch guiding the memory course toward reconsolidation or extinction, each depending on protein synthesis. Manipulation of this variable allows findings of impaired extinction to be discriminated from those of disrupted reconsolidation.

  19. The epigenetic clock and telomere length are independently associated with chronological age and mortality

    PubMed Central

    Marioni, Riccardo E; Harris, Sarah E; Shah, Sonia; McRae, Allan F; von Zglinicki, Thomas; Martin-Ruiz, Carmen; Wray, Naomi R; Visscher, Peter M; Deary, Ian J

    2016-01-01

    Background: Telomere length and DNA methylation have been proposed as biological clock measures that track chronological age. Whether they change in tandem, or contribute independently to the prediction of chronological age, is not known. Methods: We address these points using data from two Scottish cohorts: the Lothian Birth Cohorts of 1921 (LBC1921) and 1936 (LBC1936). Telomere length and epigenetic clock estimates from DNA methylation were measured in 920 LBC1936 participants (ages 70, 73 and 76 years) and in 414 LBC1921 participants (ages 79, 87 and 90 years). Results: The epigenetic clock changed over time at roughly the same rate as chronological age in both cohorts. Telomere length decreased at 48–67 base pairs per year on average. Weak, non-significant correlations were found between epigenetic clock estimates and telomere length. Telomere length explained 6.6% of the variance in age in LBC1921, the epigenetic clock explained 10.0%, and combined they explained 17.3% (all P < 1 × 10−7). Corresponding figures for the LBC1936 cohort were 14.3%, 11.7% and 19.5% (all P < 1 × 10−12). In a combined cohorts analysis, the respective estimates were 2.8%, 28.5% and 29.5%. Also in a combined cohorts analysis, a one standard deviation increase in baseline epigenetic age was linked to a 22% increased mortality risk (P = 2.6 × 10−4) whereas, in the same model, a one standard deviation increase in baseline telomere length was independently linked to an 11% decreased mortality risk (P = 0.06). Conclusions: These results suggest that telomere length and epigenetic clock estimates are independent predictors of chronological age and mortality risk. PMID:27075770

  20. Reconstructions of Columbia River streamflow from tree-ring chronologies in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Littell, Jeremy; Pederson, Gregory T.; Gray, Stephen T.; Tjoelker, Michael; Hamlet, Alan F.; Woodhouse, Connie A.

    2016-01-01

    We developed Columbia River streamflow reconstructions using a network of existing, new, and updated tree-ring records sensitive to the main climatic factors governing discharge. Reconstruction quality is enhanced by incorporating tree-ring chronologies where high snowpack limits growth, which better represent the contribution of cool-season precipitation to flow than chronologies from trees positively sensitive to hydroclimate alone. The best performing reconstruction (back to 1609 CE) explains 59% of the historical variability and the longest reconstruction (back to 1502 CE) explains 52% of the variability. Droughts similar to the high-intensity, long-duration low flows observed during the 1920s and 1940s are rare, but occurred in the early 1500s and 1630s-1640s. The lowest Columbia flow events appear to be reflected in chronologies both positively and negatively related to streamflow, implying low snowpack and possibly low warm-season precipitation. High flows of magnitudes observed in the instrumental record appear to have been relatively common, and high flows from the 1680s to 1740s exceeded the magnitude and duration of observed wet periods in the late-19th and 20th Century. Comparisons between the Columbia River reconstructions and future projections of streamflow derived from global climate and hydrologic models show the potential for increased hydrologic variability, which could present challenges for managing water in the face of competing demands