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Sample records for extinctions models chronologies

  1. Explaining the Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions: Models, chronologies, and assumptions

    PubMed Central

    Brook, Barry W.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

    2002-01-01

    Understanding of the Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions has been advanced recently by the application of simulation models and new developments in geochronological dating. Together these have been used to posit a rapid demise of megafauna due to over-hunting by invading humans. However, we demonstrate that the results of these extinction models are highly sensitive to implicit assumptions concerning the degree of prey naivety to human hunters. In addition, we show that in Greater Australia, where the extinctions occurred well before the end of the last Ice Age (unlike the North American situation), estimates of the duration of coexistence between humans and megafauna remain imprecise. Contrary to recent claims, the existing data do not prove the “blitzkrieg” model of overkill. PMID:12417761

  2. A new chronology for the end-Triassic mass extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deenen, M. H. L.; Ruhl, M.; Bonis, N. R.; Krijgsman, W.; Kuerschner, W. M.; Reitsma, M.; van Bergen, M. J.

    2010-03-01

    The transition from the Triassic to Jurassic Period, initiating the 'Age of the dinosaurs', approximately 200 Ma, is marked by a profound mass extinction with more than 50% genus loss in both marine and continental realms. This event closely coincides with a period of extensive volcanism in the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) associated with the initial break-up of Pangaea but a causal relationship is still debated. The Triassic-Jurassic (T-J) boundary is recently proposed in the marine record at the first occurrence datum of Jurassic ammonites, post-dating the extinction interval that concurs with two distinct perturbations in the carbon isotope record. The continental record shows a major palynological turnover together with a prominent change in tetrapod taxa, but a direct link to the marine events is still equivocal. Here we develop an accurate chronostratigraphic framework for the T-J boundary interval and establish detailed trans-Atlantic and marine-continental correlations by integrating astrochronology, paleomagnetism, basalt geochemistry and geobiology. We show that the oldest CAMP basalts are diachronous by 20 kyr across the Atlantic Ocean, and that these two volcanic pulses coincide with the end-Triassic extinction interval in the marine realm. Our results support the hypotheses of Phanerozoic mass extinctions resulting from emplacement of Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs) and provide crucial time constraints for numerical modelling of Triassic-Jurassic climate change and global carbon-cycle perturbations.

  3. Models for chronology selection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassidy, M. J.; Hawking, S. W.

    1998-02-01

    In this paper, we derive an expression for the grand canonical partition function for a fluid of hot, rotating massless scalar field particles in the Einstein universe. We consider the number of states with a given energy as one increases the angular momentum so that the fluid rotates with an increasing angular velocity. We find that at the critical value when the velocity of the particles furthest from the origin reaches the speed of light, the number of states tends to zero. We illustrate how one can also interpret this partition function as the effective action for a boosted scalar field configuration in the product of three dimensional de Sitter space and S1. In this case, we consider the number of states with a fixed linear momentum around the S1 as the particles are given more and more boost momentum. At the critical point when the spacetime is about to develop closed timelike curves, the number of states again tends to zero. Thus it seems that quantum mechanics naturally enforces the chronology protection conjecture by superselecting the causality violating field configurations from the quantum mechanical phase space.

  4. A high-precision chronology for the rapid extinction of New Zealand moa (Aves, Dinornithiformes)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, George L. W.; Wheeler, Andrew B.; Wood, Jamie R.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.

    2014-12-01

    Megafaunal extinction followed the prehistoric human settlement of islands across the globe, but the exact duration and dynamics of the extinction processes are difficult to determine. The New Zealand moa (Aves, Dinornithiformes) are a prime example, where, despite an extensive fossil and archaeological record, debate continues about their extinction chronology and how extinction timings varied among regions and species. We apply probabilistic sightings methods to 111 high-quality radiocarbon dates (from a pool of 653 dates) on moa remains from natural and archaeological sites to provide a high-resolution spatio-temporal chronology of moa extinction. We interpret this alongside an estimated time for the onset of hunting pressure, obtained by applying the same methods to the most reliable proxies for initial human settlement of New Zealand: coprolites of and seeds gnawed by the commensal Pacific rat (Rattus exulans). By comparing local and national extinction times, we discriminate between the point at which hunting stopped (economic extinction) and the total extinction of moa (ca 150 and 200 years after settlement, respectively). Extinction occurred contemporaneously at sites separated by hundreds of kilometres. There was little difference between the extinction times of the smallest (20-50 kg) and largest (200+ kg) moa species. Our results demonstrate how rapidly megafauna were exterminated from even large, topographically- and ecologically-diverse islands such as New Zealand, and highlight the fragility of such ecosystems in the face of human impacts.

  5. A new chronology for the end-Triassic mass extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deenen, Martijn H. L.; Ruhl, Micha; Bonis, Nina R.; Krijgsman, Wout; Kuerschner, Wolfram M.; van Bergen, Manfred J.

    2010-05-01

    The link between the end-Triassic mass extinction (~200 Ma), one of the big five, and the emplacement of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP), one of the biggest flood basalt provinces, has been controversial. Here we show with a multi-disciplinary approach that the onset of volcanism in Morocco is synchronous with the extinction events documented in the terrestrial Newark basin (US) and in the marine realm (UK). Roughly 20 kyr later the main pulse of initial CAMP volcanism is synchronously recorded throughout the rest of the northern CAMP province. This event also seems to be short-lived (<100 kyr), probably occurring in distinct instantaneous pulses. Additional cyclostratigraphic control on the marine St. Audrie's Bay Tr-J boundary section (UK) indicates that both these two CAMP pulses occurred before the recently defined (first occurrence Jurassic ammonites) Triassic Jurassic boundary. This boundary, which can be considered as a first recovery event, occurs about 6 precession cycles (~120 kyr) after the end-Triassic mass extinction level.

  6. Extinction chronology of the woolly rhinoceros Coelodonta antiquitatis in the context of late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions in northern Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stuart, Anthony J.; Lister, Adrian M.

    2012-09-01

    Megafaunal extinctions in northern Eurasia (excluding Mediterranean islands) since the Last Interglacial claimed about 37% of species with body weights >44 kg. Here we review the dating evidence for the timings of these extinctions, which were staggered over tens of millennia. Moreover, individual species disappeared at different times in different geographical areas. For example, cave bear probably disappeared ca. 30.5-28.5 ka, at approximately the onset of GS-3 (beginning of 'LGM'), whereas cave lion survived until the Lateglacial ca 14 ka. Others survived into the Holocene: woolly mammoth until ca 10.7 ka in the New Siberian Islands and ca 4 ka on Wrangel Island, giant deer to at least 7.7 ka in western Siberia and European Russia. It is evident that climatic and vegetational changes had major impacts on species' ranges, and moreover the contrasting chronologies and geographical range contractions are consistent with environmental drivers relating to their differing ecologies. However, the possible role of humans in this process has still to be satisfactorily explored. We present a detailed review of the radiocarbon record and extinction chronology of an exclusively northern Eurasian species, the woolly rhinoceros Coelodonta antiquitatis, an animal adapted to feeding on low-growing herbaceous vegetation and a dry climate with minimal snowfall. During the Last Glacial the overall (time-averaged) range of C. antiquitatis extended across most of northern Eurasia, but the species failed to reach North America. On the basis of 233 ultrafiltered AMS radiocarbon dates, together with 50 others which pass our auditing criteria, we reconstruct a detailed chronology for this species. C. antiquitatis was widespread over most of the time span covered by radiocarbon dating, but from ca 35 ka (calibrated) it apparently contracted towards the east, culminating in its probable extinction ca 14 ka, with the latest dates from north-eastern Siberia. It disappeared from Britain, at

  7. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  8. Chronology and causes of the extinction of the Lava Mouse, Malpaisomys insularis (Rodentia: Muridae) from the Canary Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rando, Juan Carlos; Alcover, Josep Antoni; Navarro, Juan Francisco; García-Talavera, Francisco; Hutterer, Rainer; Michaux, Jacques

    2008-09-01

    Understanding late Holocene extinctions on islands requires accurate chronologies for all relevant events, including multiple colonisations by humans and the introduction of alien species. The most widely held hypothesis on the causes of Holocene island vertebrate extinctions incorporates human impacts, although climatic-related hypotheses cannot be excluded. Both hypotheses have been suggested to account for the extinction of the endemic Lava Mouse, Malpaisomys insularis from the Canary Islands. Here we present the first accelerator mass spectrometer (AMS) 14C ages from collagen of M. insularis bones from ancient owl pellets collected at Fuerteventura (Canary Islands, eastern Atlantic Ocean). These new dates contribute to an understanding of the extinction of this species. We are able to exclude climatic causes, predation by invasive species, and competition with the house mouse, Mus musculus. The arrival of Europeans in the Canary Islands correlates with the extinction of Malpaisomys. The introduction of rats, Rattus spp., together with their parasites and diseases, emerges as the most reasonable hypothesis explaining the extinction of M. insularis.

  9. Modelling anomalous extinction using nanodiamonds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rai, Rakesh K.; Rastogi, Shantanu

    2012-07-01

    The modelling of extinction along anomalous/non-Cardelli, Clayton & Mathis sightlines, which are characterized by a broad 217.5-nm bump and steep far-ultraviolet (FUV) rise, is reported. The extinction along these sightlines, namely HD 210121, HD 204827, HD 29647 and HD 62542, is difficult to reproduce using standard silicate and graphite grains. A very good match with the observed extinction is obtained by considering a nanodiamond component as part of the carbonaceous matter. Most of these sightlines are rich in carbon and are invariably backed by a young hot stellar object. Nanodiamond is taken as a core within amorphous carbon and graphite. These core-mantle particles, taken as additional components along with graphite and silicates, lead to a reduction in the silicate requirement. The abundance of carbonaceous matter is not affected, as a very small fraction of nanodiamond is required. Extinction along sightlines that show steep FUV is also reported, demonstrating the importance of the nanodiamond component in all such regions.

  10. Bayesian Modeling and Chronological Precision for Polynesian Settlement of Tonga

    PubMed Central

    Weisler, Marshall; Zhao, Jian-xin

    2015-01-01

    First settlement of Polynesia, and population expansion throughout the ancestral Polynesian homeland are foundation events for global history. A precise chronology is paramount to informed archaeological interpretation of these events and their consequences. Recently applied chronometric hygiene protocols excluding radiocarbon dates on wood charcoal without species identification all but eliminates this chronology as it has been built for the Kingdom of Tonga, the initial islands to be settled in Polynesia. In this paper we re-examine and redevelop this chronology through application of Bayesian models to the questioned suite of radiocarbon dates, but also incorporating short-lived wood charcoal dates from archived samples and high precision U/Th dates on coral artifacts. These models provide generation level precision allowing us to track population migration from first Lapita occupation on the island of Tongatapu through Tonga’s central and northern island groups. They further illustrate an exceptionally short duration for the initial colonizing Lapita phase and a somewhat abrupt transition to ancestral Polynesian society as it is currently defined. PMID:25799460

  11. Modelling the extinction of Steller's sea cow

    PubMed Central

    Turvey, S.T; Risley, C.L

    2005-01-01

    Steller's sea cow, a giant sirenian discovered in 1741 and extinct by 1768, is one of the few megafaunal mammal species to have died out during the historical period. The species is traditionally considered to have been exterminated by ‘blitzkrieg’-style direct overharvesting for food, but it has also been proposed that its extinction resulted from a sea urchin population explosion triggered by extirpation of local sea otter populations that eliminated the shallow-water kelps on which sea cows fed. Hunting records from eighteenth century Russian expeditions to the Commander Islands, in conjunction with life-history data extrapolated from dugongs, permit modelling of sea cow extinction dynamics. Sea cows were massively and wastefully overexploited, being hunted at over seven times the sustainable limit, and suggesting that the initial Bering Island sea cow population must have been higher than suggested by previous researchers to allow the species to survive even until 1768. Environmental changes caused by sea otter declines are unlikely to have contributed to this extinction event. This indicates that megafaunal extinctions can be effected by small bands of hunters using pre-industrial technologies, and highlights the catastrophic impact of wastefulness when overexploiting resources mistakenly perceived as ‘infinite’. PMID:17148336

  12. Modelling the extinction of Steller's sea cow.

    PubMed

    Turvey, S T; Risley, C L

    2006-03-22

    Steller's sea cow, a giant sirenian discovered in 1741 and extinct by 1768, is one of the few megafaunal mammal species to have died out during the historical period. The species is traditionally considered to have been exterminated by 'blitzkrieg'-style direct overharvesting for food, but it has also been proposed that its extinction resulted from a sea urchin population explosion triggered by extirpation of local sea otter populations that eliminated the shallow-water kelps on which sea cows fed. Hunting records from eighteenth century Russian expeditions to the Commander Islands, in conjunction with life-history data extrapolated from dugongs, permit modelling of sea cow extinction dynamics. Sea cows were massively and wastefully overexploited, being hunted at over seven times the sustainable limit, and suggesting that the initial Bering Island sea cow population must have been higher than suggested by previous researchers to allow the species to survive even until 1768. Environmental changes caused by sea otter declines are unlikely to have contributed to this extinction event. This indicates that megafaunal extinctions can be effected by small bands of hunters using pre-industrial technologies, and highlights the catastrophic impact of wastefulness when overexploiting resources mistakenly perceived as 'infinite'. PMID:17148336

  13. Mathematical Modeling of Extinction of Inhomogeneous Populations.

    PubMed

    Karev, G P; Kareva, I

    2016-04-01

    Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction. Unlike the more traditional exponential models, the life duration of sub-exponential models is finite. In the first model, the population is assumed to be composed of clones that are independent from each other. In the second model, we assume that the size of the population as a whole decreases according to the sub-exponential equation. We then investigate the "unobserved heterogeneity," i.e., the underlying inhomogeneous population model, and calculate the distribution of frequencies of clones for both models. We show that the dynamics of frequencies in the first model is governed by the principle of minimum of Tsallis information loss. In the second model, the notion of "internal population time" is proposed; with respect to the internal time, the dynamics of frequencies is governed by the principle of minimum of Shannon information loss. The results of this analysis show that the principle of minimum of information loss is the underlying law for the evolution of a broad class of models of population extinction. Finally, we propose a possible application of this modeling framework to mechanisms underlying time perception. PMID:27090117

  14. Mathematical Modeling of Extinction of Inhomogeneous Populations

    PubMed Central

    Karev, G.P.; Kareva, I.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction. Unlike the more traditional exponential models, the life duration of sub-exponential models is finite. In the first model, the population is assumed to be composed clones that are independent from each other. In the second model, we assume that the size of the population as a whole decreases according to the sub-exponential equation. We then investigate the “unobserved heterogeneity”, i.e. the underlying inhomogeneous population model, and calculate the distribution of frequencies of clones for both models. We show that the dynamics of frequencies in the first model is governed by the principle of minimum of Tsallis information loss. In the second model, the notion of “internal population time” is proposed; with respect to the internal time, the dynamics of frequencies is governed by the principle of minimum of Shannon information loss. The results of this analysis show that the principle of minimum of information loss is the underlying law for the evolution of a broad class of models of population extinction. Finally, we propose a possible application of this modeling framework to mechanisms underlying time perception. PMID:27090117

  15. Biogeochemical modeling at mass extinction boundaries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rampino, M. R.; Caldeira, K. G.

    1991-01-01

    The causes of major mass extinctions is a subject of considerable interest to those concerned with the history and evolution of life on earth. The primary objectives of the proposed plan of research are: (1) to develop quantitative time-dependent biogeochemical cycle models, coupled with an ocean atmosphere in order to improve the understanding of global scale physical, chemical, and biological processes that control the distribution of elements important for life at times of mass extinctions; and (2) to develop a comprehensive data base of the best available geochemical, isotopic, and other relevant geologic data from sections across mass extinction boundaries. These data will be used to constrain and test the biogeochemical model. These modeling experiments should prove useful in: (1) determining the possible cause(s) of the environmental changes seen at bio-event boundaries; (2) identifying and quantifying little-known feedbacks among the oceans, atmosphere, and biosphere; and (3) providing additional insights into the possible responses of the earth system to perturbations of various timescales. One of the best known mass extinction events marks the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary (66 Myr ago). Data from the K/T boundary are used here to constrain a newly developed time-dependent biogeochemical cycle model that is designed to study transient behavior of the earth system. Model results predict significant fluctuations in ocean alkalinity, atmospheric CO2, and global temperatures caused by extinction of calcareous plankton and reduction in the sedimentation rates of pelagic carbonates and organic carbon. Oxygen-isotome and other paleoclimatic data from K/T time provide some evidence that such climatic fluctuations may have occurred, but stabilizing feedbacks may have acted to reduce the ocean alkalinity and carbon dioxide fluctuations.

  16. Extinction models for cancer stem cell therapy

    PubMed Central

    Sehl, Mary; Zhou, Hua; Sinsheimer, Janet S.; Lange, Kenneth L.

    2012-01-01

    Cells with stem cell-like properties are now viewed as initiating and sustaining many cancers. This suggests that cancer can be cured by driving these cancer stem cells to extinction. The problem with this strategy is that ordinary stem cells are apt to be killed in the process. This paper sets bounds on the killing differential (difference between death rates of cancer stem cells and normal stem cells) that must exist for the survival of an adequate number of normal stem cells. Our main tools are birth–death Markov chains in continuous time. In this framework, we investigate the extinction times of cancer stem cells and normal stem cells. Application of extreme value theory from mathematical statistics yields an accurate asymptotic distribution and corresponding moments for both extinction times. We compare these distributions for the two cell populations as a function of the killing rates. Perhaps a more telling comparison involves the number of normal stem cells NH at the extinction time of the cancer stem cells. Conditioning on the asymptotic time to extinction of the cancer stem cells allows us to calculate the asymptotic mean and variance of NH. The full distribution of NH can be retrieved by the finite Fourier transform and, in some parameter regimes, by an eigenfunction expansion. Finally, we discuss the impact of quiescence (the resting state) on stem cell dynamics. Quiescence can act as a sanctuary for cancer stem cells and imperils the proposed therapy. We approach the complication of quiescence via multitype branching process models and stochastic simulation. Improvements to the τ-leaping method of stochastic simulation make it a versatile tool in this context. We conclude that the proposed therapy must target quiescent cancer stem cells as well as actively dividing cancer stem cells. The current cancer models demonstrate the virtue of attacking the same quantitative questions from a variety of modeling, mathematical, and computational perspectives

  17. Chronology protection in Galileon models and massive gravity

    SciTech Connect

    Burrage, Clare; Rham, Claudia de; Heisenberg, Lavinia; Tolley, Andrew J. E-mail: claudia.deRham@case.edu E-mail: andrew.j.tolley@case.edu

    2012-07-01

    Galileon models are a class of effective field theories that have recently received much attention. They arise in the decoupling limit of theories of massive gravity, and in some cases they have been treated in their own right as scalar field theories with a specific nonlinearly realized global symmetry (Galilean transformation). It is well known that in the presence of a source, these Galileon theories admit superluminal propagating solutions, implying that as quantum field theories they must admit a different notion of causality than standard local Lorentz invariant theories. We show that in these theories it is easy to construct closed timelike curves (CTCs) within the naive regime of validity of the effective field theory. However, on closer inspection we see that the CTCs could never arise since the Galileon inevitably becomes infinitely strongly coupled at the onset of the formation of a CTC. This implies an infinite amount of backreaction, first on the background for the Galileon field, signaling the break down of the effective field theory, and subsequently on the spacetime geometry, forbidding the formation of the CTC. Furthermore the background solution required to create CTCs becomes unstable with an arbitrarily fast decay time. Thus Galileon theories satisfy a direct analogue of Hawking's chronology protection conjecture.

  18. Late Quaternary cave bears and brown bears in Europe: implications for distribution, chronology, and extinction based on a multidisciplinary approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pacher, Martina

    2010-05-01

    Cave bear remains are one of the most numerous fossils found in European caves. Despite their frequency of occurrence, many aspects of cave bear palaeontology still remain poorly understood. New methodological approaches and ongoing studies led to controversial results and discussion about its taxonomy, palaeoecology, and final extinction. Are we dealing with one single or several species of cave bears? Was cave bear exclusively vegetarian or after all more omnivorous? Did he go extinct before or after the Late Glacial Maximum? Was cave bear restricted to Europe or did he also occur in Asia? Late Pleistocene brown bears, on the other hand, are often rare and little is known about the possible co-occurrence of cave and brown bears during the Late Pleistocene. Based on direct radiocarbon dates the distribution pattern of both, cave and brown bears is reconstructed during the Late Pleistocene in Europe. In addition, the reasons for the achieved pattern will be tested leading to the main question - why did cave bear become extinct while brown bears survived until today? To answer this question palaeobiological data of Late Pleistocene cave and brown bears will be tested against results from isotope analyses, while aDNA data may contribute to the question of distinct local population or even species of bears. The current state of evidence will be presented and on the basis of resulting pattern implications for further multi-disciplinary studies will be discussed.

  19. Preliminary Radiocarbon Chronology and Paleoecological Analysis of the Small Mammals in Samwel and Potter Creek Caves, Shasta County, California, and its Relation to the End-Pleistocene Extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feranec, R. S.; Blois, J. L.; Hadly, E. A.

    2005-12-01

    Although mostly excavated before 1910, the fossil deposits discovered in Samwel and Potter Creek Caves in northern California have been little studied. The deposits within the caves have yielded both extinct megafauna and archaeological remains implying that the deposits cross the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Small mammals are abundant within these cave deposits, and many of these smaller mammals are from extant species of California, survivors of the end Pleistocene extinction. Because of the abundant fossils collected in stratigraphic context, our ultimate goal is the use these unique sites to assess community and population response of the extant mammals to the end Pleistocene event. However, our initial aim was to answer the following two questions regarding the small mammal communities: (1) What is the chronology of the small mammals in the cave deposits? (2) Are ecological changes occurring within the small mammal taxa? To determine chronology, we prepared 10 small mammal samples for radiocarbon analysis using standard techniques. The samples were analyzed and dated at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Our dates, selected from across the strata, ranged from 1,200 to 21,000 radiocarbon years before present. For a preliminary assessment of ecological changes through time, we used cranial metrics of ground squirrels ( Spermophilus sp.). Diastemal length (the distance between the first molariform tooth and incisor) is an index of body size, which is a function of the physiology of the individual. Toothrow measures the length of the molariform teeth, and does not change with the ontogeny of the individual, but can represent heritable, evolutionary changes in size or species replacement. Our preliminary results are promising, demonstrating a significant decrease in diastemal length, or ecophenotypic body size, at the top of the deposit. No significant change was observed in toothrow length. Our results confirm that the deposits of these northern

  20. Modelling of Dust Extinction through Dark Clouds: Small Scale Structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clemens, D.; Lada, C.

    1993-12-01

    In order to understand some curious effects discovered in analyzing our deep JHK near-infrared survey of the background stars probing the IC 5146 dark cloud complex (Lada, Lada, Clemens, & Bally 1993), we have constructed a simple model of the dust extinction through a molecular cloud. The effect noticed involved a correlation between the dispersion of the E(H-K) based estimate of A_V, when the stellar estimates of E(H-K) were binned into arcmin sized bins, with the mean A_V computed for those bins. The sense of the correlation is that the dispersion of the extinction rises with the extinction in a nearly linear fashion. Further, the dispersion of the dispersion also rises with extinction. Our model was constructed to try to understand the origin of this unexpected behavior. The model consists of a Poisson generator to populate a bin with stars and various extinction generating functions to add extinction to each star. Additionally, measurement noise and varying amounts of foreground star contamination are added to simulate the actual observations. Remarkably, this simple model is able to rule out several cloud structure models, including uniform extinction across an arcmin sized bin and the case of dense clumplets (rocks) embedded in a low extinction medium. We show that a power law parameterization of the extinction variation with position across a bin is able to fully reproduce the observations for a fairly robust set of power law indices. We also show that foreground star contamination plus any simple extinction model cannot reproduce the observations, while foreground star contamination does not appreciably affect the power law extinction model for foreground stellar fractions less than 30 - 50% of the total stellar content.

  1. Modeling extinction and reignition in turbulent flames

    SciTech Connect

    Kronenburg, A.; Kostka, M.

    2005-12-01

    The conditional moment closure method (CMC) has been extended to improve reactive species predictions in flames with significant local extinction and reignition. Simple first-order closure of the conditionally averaged reaction rate term does not give satisfactory results due to large fluctuations around the conditional mean and an alternative closure is suggested here. The new closure is based on a precomputed parameterized reference field that maps reactive species mass fractions as functions of mixture fraction and sensible enthalpy. During the computations, the reference field is continuously adjusted to ensure consistency with the CMC solution and doubly conditioned chemical source terms that are functions of time, space, mixture fraction, and sensible enthalpy can thus be obtained. Integration over sensible enthalpy space yields the improved singly conditioned chemical source term that can be used for the solution of the CMC equations. Full closure can be achieved by assuming a {beta}-PDF for the probability distribution in sensible enthalpy space and an additional conditional variance equation needs to be solved. The overall agreement between the measured and the computed variance is satisfactory and the extended CMC model is applied to Sandia Flames D, E, and F. Excellent predictions of temperature, major species, intermediates, and NO are obtained in Flames D and E while temperature predictions can be significantly improved in Sandia Flame F.

  2. Population extinction in an inhomogeneous host-pathogen model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagarti, Trilochan

    2016-01-01

    We study inhomogeneous host-pathogen dynamics to model the global amphibian population extinction in a lake basin system. The lake basin system is modeled as quenched disorder. In this model we show that once the pathogen arrives at the lake basin it spreads from one lake to another, eventually spreading to the entire lake basin system in a wave like pattern. The extinction time has been found to depend on the steady state host population and pathogen growth rate. Linear estimate of the extinction time is computed. The steady state host population shows a threshold behavior in the interaction strength for a given growth rate.

  3. Modeling Galactic Extinction with Dust and "Real" Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulas, Giacomo; Zonca, Alberto; Casu, Silvia; Cecchi-Pestellini, Cesare

    2013-07-01

    We investigate the remarkable apparent variety of galactic extinction curves by modeling extinction profiles with core-mantle grains and a collection of single polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Our aim is to translate a synthetic description of dust into physically well-grounded building blocks through the analysis of a statistically relevant sample of different extinction curves. All different flavors of observed extinction curves, ranging from the average galactic extinction curve to virtually "bumpless" profiles, can be described by the present model. We prove that a mixture of a relatively small number (54 species in 4 charge states each) of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons can reproduce the features of the extinction curve in the ultraviolet, dismissing an old objection to the contribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to the interstellar extinction curve. Despite the large number of free parameters (at most the 54 × 4 column densities of each species in each ionization state included in the molecular ensemble plus the 9 parameters defining the physical properties of classical particles), we can strongly constrain some physically relevant properties such as the total number of C atoms in all species and the mean charge of the mixture. Such properties are found to be largely independent of the adopted dust model whose variation provides effects that are orthogonal to those brought about by the molecular component. Finally, the fitting procedure, together with some physical sense, suggests (but does not require) the presence of an additional component of chemically different very small carbonaceous grains.

  4. MODELING GALACTIC EXTINCTION WITH DUST AND 'REAL' POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS

    SciTech Connect

    Mulas, Giacomo; Casu, Silvia; Cecchi-Pestellini, Cesare; Zonca, Alberto E-mail: silvia@oa-cagliari.inaf.it E-mail: azonca@oa-cagliari.inaf.it

    2013-07-01

    We investigate the remarkable apparent variety of galactic extinction curves by modeling extinction profiles with core-mantle grains and a collection of single polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Our aim is to translate a synthetic description of dust into physically well-grounded building blocks through the analysis of a statistically relevant sample of different extinction curves. All different flavors of observed extinction curves, ranging from the average galactic extinction curve to virtually 'bumpless' profiles, can be described by the present model. We prove that a mixture of a relatively small number (54 species in 4 charge states each) of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons can reproduce the features of the extinction curve in the ultraviolet, dismissing an old objection to the contribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons to the interstellar extinction curve. Despite the large number of free parameters (at most the 54 Multiplication-Sign 4 column densities of each species in each ionization state included in the molecular ensemble plus the 9 parameters defining the physical properties of classical particles), we can strongly constrain some physically relevant properties such as the total number of C atoms in all species and the mean charge of the mixture. Such properties are found to be largely independent of the adopted dust model whose variation provides effects that are orthogonal to those brought about by the molecular component. Finally, the fitting procedure, together with some physical sense, suggests (but does not require) the presence of an additional component of chemically different very small carbonaceous grains.

  5. Modeling Selection and Extinction Mechanisms of Biological Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amirjanov, Adil

    In this paper, the behavior of a genetic algorithm is modeled to enhance its applicability as a modeling tool of biological systems. A new description model for selection mechanism is introduced which operates on a portion of individuals of population. The extinction and recolonization mechanism is modeled, and solving the dynamics analytically shows that the genetic drift in the population with extinction/recolonization is doubled. The mathematical analysis of the interaction between selection and extinction/recolonization processes is carried out to assess the dynamics of motion of the macroscopic statistical properties of population. Computer simulations confirm that the theoretical predictions of described models are in good approximations. A mathematical model of GA dynamics was also examined, which describes the anti-predator vigilance in an animal group with respect to a known analytical solution of the problem, and showed a good agreement between them to find the evolutionarily stable strategies.

  6. Climate modelling of mass-extinction events: a review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feulner, Georg

    2009-07-01

    Despite tremendous interest in the topic and decades of research, the origins of the major losses of biodiversity in the history of life on Earth remain elusive. A variety of possible causes for these mass-extinction events have been investigated, including impacts of asteroids or comets, large-scale volcanic eruptions, effects from changes in the distribution of continents caused by plate tectonics, and biological factors, to name but a few. Many of these suggested drivers involve or indeed require changes of Earth's climate, which then affect the biosphere of our planet, causing a global reduction in the diversity of biological species. It can be argued, therefore, that a detailed understanding of these climatic variations and their effects on ecosystems are prerequisites for a solution to the enigma of biological extinctions. Apart from investigations of the paleoclimate data of the time periods of mass extinctions, climate-modelling experiments should be able to shed some light on these dramatic events. Somewhat surprisingly, however, only a few comprehensive modelling studies of the climate changes associated with extinction events have been undertaken. These studies will be reviewed in this paper. Furthermore, the role of modelling in extinction research in general and suggestions for future research are discussed.

  7. Fluctuations in epidemic modeling - disease extinction and control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwartz, Ira

    2009-03-01

    The analysis of infectious disease fluctuations has recently seen an increasing rise in the use of new tools and models from stochastic dynamics and statistical physics. Examples arise in modeling fluctuations of multi-strain diseases, in modeling adaptive social behavior and its impact on disease fluctuations, and in the analysis of disease extinction in finite population models. Proper stochastic model reduction [1] allows one to predict unobserved fluctuations from observed data in multi-strain models [2]. Degree alteration and power law behavior is predicted in adaptive network epidemic models [3,4]. And extinction rates derived from large fluctuation theory exhibit scaling with respect to distance to the bifurcation point of disease onset with an unusual exponent [5]. In addition to outbreak prediction, another main goal of epidemic modeling is one of eliminating the disease to extinction through various control mechanisms, such as vaccine implementation or quarantine. In this talk, a description will be presented of the fluctuational behavior of several epidemic models and their extinction rates. A general framework and analysis of the effect of non-Gaussian control actuations which enhance the rate to disease extinction will be described. In particular, in it is shown that even in the presence of a small Poisson distributed vaccination program, there is an exponentially enhanced rate to disease extinction. These ideas may lead to improved methods of controlling disease where random vaccinations are prevalent. [4pt] Recent papers:[0pt] [1] E. Forgoston and I. B. Schwartz, ``Escape Rates in a Stochastic Environment with Multiple Scales,'' arXiv:0809.1345 2008.[0pt] [2] L. B. Shaw, L. Billings, I. B. Schwartz, ``Using dimension reduction to improve outbreak predictability of multi-strain diseases,'' J. Math. Bio. 55, 1 2007.[0pt] [3] L. B. Shaw and I. B. Schwartz, ``Fluctuating epidemics on adaptive networks,'' Physical Review E 77, 066101 2008.[0pt] [4] L. B

  8. Endolithic microbial model for Martian exobiology: The road to extinction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oscampo-Friedmann, R.; Friedmann, E. I.

    1991-01-01

    Martian exobiology is based on the assumption that on early Mars, liquid water was present and that conditions were suitable for the evolution of life. The cause for life to disappear from the surface and the recognizable fingerprints of past microbial activity preserved on Mars are addressed. The Antarctic cryptoendolithic microbial ecosystem as a model for extinction in the deteriorating Martian environment is discussed.

  9. Interstellar Dust Models Consistent with Extinction, Emission, and Abundance Constraints

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zubko, Viktor; Dwek, Eli; Arendt, Richard G.

    2004-01-01

    We present new interstellar dust models which have been derived by simultaneously fitting the far ultraviolet to near infrared extinction, the diffuse infrared emission, and, unlike previous models, the elemental abundances in dust for the diffuse interstellar medium. We found that dust models consisting of a mixture of spherical graphite and silicate grains, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) molecules, in addition to porous composite particles containing silicate, organic refractory, and water ice, provide an improved .t to the UV-to-infrared extinction and infrared emission measurements, while consuming the amounts of elements well within the uncertainties of adopted interstellar abundances, including B star abundances. These models are a signi.cant improvement over the recent Li & Draine (2001, ApJ, 554, 778) model which requires an excessive amount of silicon to be locked up in dust: 48 ppm (atoms per million of H atoms), considerably more than the solar abundance of 34 ppm or the B star abundance of 19 ppm.

  10. Outbreak and Extinction Dynamics in a Stochastic Ebola Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nieddu, Garrett; Bianco, Simone; Billings, Lora; Forgoston, Eric; Kaufman, James

    A zoonotic disease is a disease that can be passed between animals and humans. In many cases zoonotic diseases can persist in the animal population even if there are no infections in the human population. In this case we call the infected animal population the reservoir for the disease. Ebola virus disease (EVD) and SARS are both notable examples of such diseases. There is little work devoted to understanding stochastic disease extinction and reintroduction in the presence of a reservoir. Here we build a stochastic model for EVD and explicitly consider the presence of an animal reservoir. Using a master equation approach and a WKB ansatz, we determine the associated Hamiltonian of the system. Hamilton's equations are then used to numerically compute the 12-dimensional optimal path to extinction, which is then used to estimate mean extinction times. We also numerically investigate the behavior of the model for dynamic population size. Our results provide an improved understanding of outbreak and extinction dynamics in diseases like EVD.

  11. Extinction risk and structure of a food web model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pękalski, Andrzej; Szwabiński, Janusz; Bena, Ioana; Droz, Michel

    2008-03-01

    We investigate in detail the model of a trophic web proposed by Amaral and Meyer [Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 652 (1999)]. We focus on small-size systems that are relevant for real biological food webs and for which the fluctuations play an important role. We show, using Monte Carlo simulations, that such webs can be nonviable, leading to extinction of all species in small and/or weakly coupled systems. Estimations of the extinction times and survival chances are also given. We show that before the extinction the fraction of highly connected species (“omnivores”) is increasing. Viable food webs exhibit a pyramidal structure, where the density of occupied niches is higher at lower trophic levels, and moreover the occupations of adjacent levels are closely correlated. We also demonstrate that the distribution of the lengths of food chains has an exponential character and changes weakly with the parameters of the model. On the contrary, the distribution of avalanche sizes of the extinct species depends strongly on the connectedness of the web. For rather loosely connected systems, we recover the power-law type of behavior with the same exponent as found in earlier studies, while for densely connected webs the distribution is not of a power-law type.

  12. Preventing Return of Fear in an Animal Model of Anxiety: Additive Effects of Massive Extinction and Extinction in Multiple Contexts

    PubMed Central

    Laborda, Mario A.; Miller, Ralph R.

    2013-01-01

    Fear conditioning and experimental extinction have been presented as models of anxiety disorders and exposure therapy, respectively. Moreover, the return of fear serves as a model of relapse after exposure therapy. Here we present two experiments, with rats as subjects in a lick suppression preparation, in which we assessed the additive effects of two different treatments to attenuate the return of fear. First, we evaluated whether two phenomena known to generate return of fear (i.e., spontaneous recovery and renewal) summate to produce a stronger reappearance of extinguished fear. At test, rats evaluated outside the extinction context following a long delay after extinction (i.e., a delayed context shift) exhibited greater return of extinguished fear than rats evaluated outside the extinction context alone, but return of extinguished fear following a delayed context shift did not significantly differ from the return of fear elicited in rats tested following a long delay after extinction alone. Additionally, extinction in multiple contexts and a massive extinction treatment each attenuated the strong return of fear produced by a delayed context shift. Moreover, the conjoint action of these treatments was significantly more successful in preventing the reappearance of extinguished fear, suggesting that extensive cue exposure administered in several different therapeutic settings has the potential to reduce relapse after therapy for anxiety disorders, more than either manipulation alone. PMID:23611075

  13. Preventing return of fear in an animal model of anxiety: additive effects of massive extinction and extinction in multiple contexts.

    PubMed

    Laborda, Mario A; Miller, Ralph R

    2013-06-01

    Fear conditioning and experimental extinction have been presented as models of anxiety disorders and exposure therapy, respectively. Moreover, the return of fear serves as a model of relapse after exposure therapy. Here we present two experiments, with rats as subjects in a lick suppression preparation, in which we assessed the additive effects of two different treatments to attenuate the return of fear. First, we evaluated whether two phenomena known to generate return of fear (i.e., spontaneous recovery and renewal) summate to produce a stronger reappearance of extinguished fear. At test, rats evaluated outside the extinction context following a long delay after extinction (i.e., a delayed context shift) exhibited greater return of extinguished fear than rats evaluated outside the extinction context alone, but return of extinguished fear following a delayed context shift did not significantly differ from the return of fear elicited in rats tested following a long delay after extinction alone. Additionally, extinction in multiple contexts and a massive extinction treatment each attenuated the strong return of fear produced by a delayed context shift. Moreover, the conjoint action of these treatments was significantly more successful in preventing the reappearance of extinguished fear, suggesting that extensive cue exposure administered in several different therapeutic settings has the potential to reduce relapse after therapy for anxiety disorders, more than either manipulation alone. PMID:23611075

  14. Modelling of dead carbon fraction in speleothems: a step towards reliable speleothem 14C-chronologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lechleitner, Franziska A.; Jamieson, Robert A.; McIntyre, Cameron; Baldini, Lisa M.; Baldini, James U. L.; Eglinton, Timothy I.

    2015-04-01

    Over the past two decades, speleothems have become one of the most versatile and promising archives for the study of past continental climate. Very precise absolute dating is often possible using the U-Th method, resulting in paleoclimate records of exceptional resolution and accuracy. However, not all speleothems are amenable to this dating method for a variety of reasons (e.g. low U concentrations, high detrital Th etc). This has lead researchers to exclude many otherwise suitable speleothems and cave sites from further investigation. 14C-dating of speleothems has so far not been applicable, due to the 'dead carbon' problem. As drip water percolates through the karst, dissolving CaCO3, a variable amount of 14C-dead carbon is added to the solution. This results in a temporally variable and site-specific reservoir effect, ultimately undermining the development of speleothem 14C -chronologies. However, a number of recent studies have shown a clear link between karst hydrology and associated proxies (e.g., Mg/Ca and δ13C) and this 'dead carbon fraction' (DCF). We take advantage of this relationship to model DCF and its changes using Mg/Ca, δ13C and 14C data from published speleothem records. Using one record for calibration purposes, we build a transfer function for the DCF in relation to δ13C and Mg/Ca, which we then apply to other 14C records. Initial model results are promising; we are able to reconstruct general long-term average DCF within uncertainties of the calculated DCF from the U-Th chronology. Large shifts in DCF related to hydrology are also often detected. In a second step, we apply the model to a speleothem from southern Poland, which so far could not be dated, due to very low U-concentrations. To construct a 14C chronology, the stalagmite was sampled at 5 mm intervals. CaCO3 powders were graphitized and measured by Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (MICADAS) at ETH Zurich. Additional high-resolution (0.1 mm/sample) 14C measurements were performed on

  15. Statistical mechanics of network models of macroevolution and extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solé, Ricard V.

    The fossil record of life has been shown to provide evidence for scaling laws in both time series and in some statistical features. This evidence was suggested to be linked with a self-organized critical phenomenon by several authors. In this paper we review some of these models and their specific predictions. It is shown that most of the observed statistical properties of the evolutionary process on the long time scale can be reproduced by means of a simple model involving a network of interactions among species. The model is able to capture the essential features of the extinction and diversification process and gives power law distributions for (i) extinction events, (ii) taxonomy of species-genera data, (iii) lifetime distribution of genus close to those reported from paleontological databases. It also provides a natural decoupling between micro- and macroevolutionary processes.

  16. Core-Formation Models and Extinct Nuclides

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jacobsen, S. B.; Yin, Q.-Z.

    2001-01-01

    Zr and W isotope data are consistent with the Earth's core forming in a single event subsequent to about 113 Ma after the formation of the solar system. With continuous models of core formation the process can start early. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  17. In vitro 3-D model based on extending time of culture for studying chronological epidermis aging.

    PubMed

    Dos Santos, Morgan; Metral, Elodie; Boher, Aurélie; Rousselle, Patricia; Thepot, Amélie; Damour, Odile

    2015-09-01

    Skin aging is a complex phenomenon in which several mechanisms operate simultaneously. Among them, intrinsic aging is a time-dependent process, which leads to gradual skin changes affecting its structure and function such as thinning down of both epidermal and dermal compartments and a flattening and fragility of the dermo-epidermal junction. Today, several approaches have been proposed for the generation of aged skin in vitro, including skin explants from aged donors and three-dimensional skin equivalent treated by aging-inducing chemical compounds or engineered with human cells isolated from aged donors. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a new in vitro model of aging based on skin equivalent demonstrating the same phenotypic changes that were observed in chronological aging. By using prolonged culture as a proxy for cellular aging, we extended to 120 days the culture time of a skin equivalent model based on collagen-glycosaminoglycan-chitosan porous polymer and engineered with human skin cells from photo-protected sites of young donors. Morphological, immunohistological and ultrastructural analysis at different time points of the culture allowed characterizing the phenotypic changes observed in our model in comparison to samples of non photo-exposed normal human skin from different ages. We firstly confirmed that long-term cultured skin equivalents are still morphologically consistent and functionally active even after 120 days of culture. However, similar to in vivo chronological skin aging a significant decrease of the epidermis thickness as well as the number of keratinocyte expressing proliferation marker Ki67 are observed in extended culture time skin equivalent. Epidermal differentiation markers loricrin, filaggrin, involucrin and transglutaminase, also strongly decreased. Ultrastructural analysis of basement membrane showed typical features of aged skin such as duplication of lamina densa and alterations of hemidesmosomes. Moreover, the

  18. Noise-induced extinction in Bazykin-Berezovskaya population model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev

    2016-07-01

    A nonlinear Bazykin-Berezovskaya prey-predator model under the influence of parametric stochastic forcing is considered. Due to Allee effect, this conceptual population model even in the deterministic case demonstrates both local and global bifurcations with the change of predator mortality. It is shown that random noise can transform system dynamics from the regime of coexistence, in equilibrium or periodic modes, to the extinction of both species. Geometry of attractors and separatrices, dividing basins of attraction, plays an important role in understanding the probabilistic mechanisms of these stochastic phenomena. Parametric analysis of noise-induced extinction is carried out on the base of the direct numerical simulation and new analytical stochastic sensitivity functions technique taking into account the arrangement of attractors and separatrices.

  19. Modelling the locomotor energetics of extinct hominids.

    PubMed

    Kramer, P A

    1999-10-01

    Bipedality is the defining characteristic of Hominidae and, as such, an understanding of the adaptive significance and functional implications of bipedality is imperative to any study of human evolution. Hominid bipedality is, presumably, a solution to some problem for the early hominids, one that has much to do with energy expenditure. Until recently, however, little attention could be focused on the quantifiable energetic aspects of bipedality as a unique locomotor form within Primates because of the inability to measure empirically the energy expenditure of non-modern hominids. A recently published method provides a way of circumventing the empirical measurement dilemma by calculating energy expenditure directly from anatomical variables and movement profiles. Although the origins of bipedality remain clouded, two discernible forms of locomotor anatomy are present in the hominid fossil record: the australopithecine and modern configurations. The australopithecine form is best represented by AL 288-1, a partial skeleton of Australopithecus afarensis, and is characterized as having short legs and a wide pelvis. The modern form is represented by modern humans and has long legs and a narrow pelvis. Human walking is optimized to take advantage of the changing levels of potential and kinetic energy that occur as the body and limbs move through the stride cycle. Although this optimization minimizes energy expenditure, some energy is required to maintain motion. I quantify this energy by developing a dynamic model that uses kinematic equations to determine energy expenditure. By representing both configurations with such a model, I can compare their rates of energy expenditure. I find that the australopithecine configuration uses less energy than that of a modern human. Despite arguments presented in the anthropological literature, the shortness of the legs of AL 288-1 provides no evidence that she was burdened with a compromised or transitional locomotor anatomy

  20. Reconciling Reinforcement Learning Models with Behavioral Extinction and Renewal: Implications for Addiction, Relapse, and Problem Gambling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Redish, A. David; Jensen, Steve; Johnson, Adam; Kurth-Nelson, Zeb

    2007-01-01

    Because learned associations are quickly renewed following extinction, the extinction process must include processes other than unlearning. However, reinforcement learning models, such as the temporal difference reinforcement learning (TDRL) model, treat extinction as an unlearning of associated value and are thus unable to capture renewal. TDRL…

  1. 26Al-26Mg systematics in D’Orbigny and Sahara 99555 angrites: Implications for high-resolution chronology using extinct chronometers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spivak-Birndorf, Lev; Wadhwa, Meenakshi; Janney, Philip

    2009-09-01

    We report on an investigation of the 26Al- 26Mg isotope systematics in the D'Orbigny and Sahara 99555 angrites. High precision Mg isotope compositions and Al/Mg ratios were measured in mineral separates and whole rock samples from D'Orbigny and Sahara 99555 using multiple-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICPMS). Plagioclase separates from both angrites have resolvable excesses in 26Mg ( Δ26Mg) that correlate with their respective Al/Mg ratios. 26Al- 26Mg systematics in the mineral separates and whole rocks define precise isochrons that correspond to 26Al/ 27Al ratios of (5.06 ± 0.92) × 10 -7 and (5.13 ± 1.90) × 10 -7 and initial Δ26Mg values of -0.006 ± 0.040‰ and -0.016 ± 0.047‰ for D'Orbigny and Sahara 99555, respectively. The slopes and initial Δ26Mg values are identical for these two meteorites within errors and the data for both angrites considered together define an isochron corresponding to a 26Al/ 27Al ratio of (5.10 ± 0.55) × 10 -7 and initial Δ26Mg value of -0.012 ± 0.019. Relative to the Efremovka E60 CAI, the 26Al/ 27Al values reported here for these angrites imply 26Al- 26Mg ages of 4562.42 ± 0.29 Ma and 4562.43 ± 0.53 Ma for D'Orbigny and Sahara 99555, respectively. These 26Al- 26Mg ages are concordant with model ages determined using other extinct radionuclide chronometers (e.g., 53Mn- 53Cr and 182Hf- 182W), but are ˜2 Myr younger than the absolute 207Pb- 206Pb ages that have been reported recently for these angrites. The reason for this discrepancy is not presently known, but may imply disturbance of one or more of the isotope systems under consideration or a possible bias in the 207Pb- 206Pb ages of the angrites resulting from natural or analytical causes.

  2. Rapid evolution of mimicry following local model extinction

    PubMed Central

    Akcali, Christopher K.; Pfennig, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Batesian mimicry evolves when individuals of a palatable species gain the selective advantage of reduced predation because they resemble a toxic species that predators avoid. Here, we evaluated whether—and in which direction—Batesian mimicry has evolved in a natural population of mimics following extirpation of their model. We specifically asked whether the precision of coral snake mimicry has evolved among kingsnakes from a region where coral snakes recently (1960) went locally extinct. We found that these kingsnakes have evolved more precise mimicry; by contrast, no such change occurred in a sympatric non-mimetic species or in conspecifics from a region where coral snakes remain abundant. Presumably, more precise mimicry has continued to evolve after model extirpation, because relatively few predator generations have passed, and the fitness costs incurred by predators that mistook a deadly coral snake for a kingsnake were historically much greater than those incurred by predators that mistook a kingsnake for a coral snake. Indeed, these results are consistent with prior theoretical and empirical studies, which revealed that only the most precise mimics are favoured as their model becomes increasingly rare. Thus, highly noxious models can generate an ‘evolutionary momentum’ that drives the further evolution of more precise mimicry—even after models go extinct. PMID:24919704

  3. Periodic mass extinctions and the Planet X model reconsidered

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitmire, Daniel P.

    2016-01-01

    The 27 Myr period in the fossil extinction record has been confirmed in modern data bases dating back 500 Myr, which is twice the time interval of the original analysis from 30 years ago. The surprising regularity of this period has been used to reject the Nemesis model. A second model based on the Sun's vertical Galactic oscillations has been challenged on the basis of an inconsistency in period and phasing. The third astronomical model originally proposed to explain the periodicity is the Planet X model in which the period is associated with the perihelion precession of the inclined orbit of a trans-Neptunian planet. Recently, and unrelated to mass extinctions, a trans-Neptunian super-Earth planet has been proposed to explain the observation that the inner Oort cloud objects Sedna and 2012VP113 have perihelia that lie near the ecliptic plane. In this Letter, we reconsider the Planet X model in light of the confluence of the modern palaeontological and outer Solar system dynamical evidence.

  4. Modeling of the evolution of steppe chernozems and development of the method of pedogenetic chronology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lisetskii, F. N.; Stolba, V. F.; Goleusov, P. V.

    2016-08-01

    Geoarchaeological methods were used to study chronosequences of surface soils in the steppe zone and to trace soil evolution during the Late Holocene in northwestern Crimea. It was found that the morphological and functional "maturity" of the humus horizons in steppe chernozems of the Late Holocene was reached in about 1600-1800 yrs. After this, their development decelerated irreversibly. The maximum concentration of trace elements accumulated in these horizons in the course of pedogenesis was reached in 1400 yrs. A new method of pedogenetic chronology based on the model chronofunction of the development of irreversible results of pedogenesis over time is suggested. Original pedochronological data and growth functions—the most suitable models for simulating pedogenesis over the past three thousand years—suggest that the development of morphological features of soil as an organomineral natural body follows growth patterns established for biological systems.

  5. A chronology for the retreat of the Irish Sea Ice-Stream using Bayesian modelling techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thrasher, I. M.; Chiverrell, R. C.; Thomas, G. S. P.; Mauz, B.; Lang, A.

    2009-04-01

    During Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 the Irish Sea Basin was occupied by the Irish Sea Ice-Stream (ISIS), a major outlet for ice which had accumulated in the British and Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS). The flow dynamics and flow phasing of this portion of the BIIS during maximum extent, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and subsequent retreat are poorly understood due to a lack of chronological control. To improve understanding of the timing of maximum ice-stream extent and subsequent retreat, we have compiled the available chronological data for deposits associated with this phase of glaciation. These chronological data were arranged in an expected order using the geomorphological, stratigraphical and sedimentological field evidence. The relative order model broadly comprised a younging sequence from before the advance to LGM limits through subsequent retreat stages. Bayesian modelling techniques were used to evaluate the conformability of this pseudo-stratigraphical relative order model. Lack of conformity in the relative order model either implied problems with individual age determinations or that the relative order of events within the model is flawed, and in both cases the problems required explanation. The relative order model contained 52 age determinations for various phases of ice advance and retreat. Bayesian analysis showed that the relative order model, constructed with information provided by stratigraphical, geomorphological and geographical evidence was conformable with the existing chronology. The incorporation of prior information within the Bayesian framework enabled the refining of probability-based age estimates for the advance and retreat history of the ISIS. The expansion of ISIS to the maximum extent advancing across southern Ireland and into the Celtic Sea appears constrained to between 24.2-22.1 cal. kyr BP. Retreat stage ice-marginal positions are constrained to between 23.9-21.4 cal. kyr BP in Co. Wexford, south-eastern Ireland and between 23

  6. Fear extinction as a model for translational neuroscience: ten years of progress.

    PubMed

    Milad, Mohammed R; Quirk, Gregory J

    2012-01-01

    The psychology of extinction has been studied for decades. Approximately 10 years ago, however, there began a concerted effort to understand the neural circuits of extinction of fear conditioning, in both animals and humans. Progress during this period has been facilitated by a high degree of coordination between rodent and human researchers examining fear extinction. Here we review the major advances and highlight new approaches to understanding and exploiting fear extinction. Research in fear extinction could serve as a model for translational research in other areas of behavioral neuroscience. PMID:22129456

  7. A Chronology of Annual-Mean Effective Radii of Stratospheric Aerosols from Volcanic Eruptions During the Twentieth Century as Derived From Ground-based Spectral Extinction Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strothers, Richard B.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Stratospheric extinction can be derived from ground-based spectral photometric observations of the Sun and other stars (as well as from satellite and aircraft measurements, available since 1979), and is found to increase after large volcanic eruptions. This increased extinction shows a characteristic wavelength dependence that gives information about the chemical composition and the effective (or area weighted mean) radius of the particles responsible for it. Known to be tiny aerosols constituted of sulfuric acid in a water solution, the stratospheric particles at midlatitudes exhibit a remarkable uniformity of their column-averaged effective radii r(sub eff) in the first few months after the eruption. Considering the seven largest eruptions of the twentieth century, r(sub eff) at this phase of peak aerosol abundance is approx. 0.3 micrometers in all cases. A year later, r(sub eff) either has remained about the same size (almost certainly in the case of the Katmai eruption of 1912) or has increased to approx. 0.5 micrometers (definitely so for the Pinatubo eruption of 1991). The reasons for this divergence in aerosol growth are unknown.

  8. To predict the niche, model colonization and extinction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yackulic, Charles B.; Nichols, James D.; Reid, Janice; Der, Ricky

    2015-01-01

    Ecologists frequently try to predict the future geographic distributions of species. Most studies assume that the current distribution of a species reflects its environmental requirements (i.e., the species' niche). However, the current distributions of many species are unlikely to be at equilibrium with the current distribution of environmental conditions, both because of ongoing invasions and because the distribution of suitable environmental conditions is always changing. This mismatch between the equilibrium assumptions inherent in many analyses and the disequilibrium conditions in the real world leads to inaccurate predictions of species' geographic distributions and suggests the need for theory and analytical tools that avoid equilibrium assumptions. Here, we develop a general theory of environmental associations during periods of transient dynamics. We show that time-invariant relationships between environmental conditions and rates of local colonization and extinction can produce substantial temporal variation in occupancy–environment relationships. We then estimate occupancy–environment relationships during three avian invasions. Changes in occupancy–environment relationships over time differ among species but are predicted by dynamic occupancy models. Since estimates of the occupancy–environment relationships themselves are frequently poor predictors of future occupancy patterns, research should increasingly focus on characterizing how rates of local colonization and extinction vary with environmental conditions.

  9. Canadian Chronology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacFarlane, John

    1987-01-01

    Provides a chronology of some of the nationally and regionally significant events which relate to the development of interpretive programs in Canada from 1789 through 1985. Includes the establishment of facilities, creation of organizations, important legislation, and honors to individuals and groups. (TW)

  10. Simple Model of Mating Preference and Extinction Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    PȨKALSKI, Andrzej

    We present a simple model of a population of individuals characterized by their genetic structure in the form of a double string of bits and the phenotype following from it. The population is living in an unchanging habitat preferring a certain type of phenotype (optimum). Individuals are unisex, however a pair is necessary for breeding. An individual rejects a mate if the latter's phenotype contains too many bad, i.e. different from the optimum, genes in the same places as the individual's. We show that such strategy, analogous to disassortative mating based on the major histocompatibility complex, avoiding inbreeding and incest, could be beneficial for the population and could reduce considerably the extinction risk, especially in small populations.

  11. On Galactic Density Modeling in the Presence of Dust Extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bovy, Jo; Rix, Hans-Walter; Green, Gregory M.; Schlafly, Edward F.; Finkbeiner, Douglas P.

    2016-02-01

    Inferences about the spatial density or phase-space structure of stellar populations in the Milky Way require a precise determination of the effective survey volume. The volume observed by surveys such as Gaia or near-infrared spectroscopic surveys, which have good coverage of the Galactic midplane region, is highly complex because of the abundant small-scale structure in the three-dimensional interstellar dust extinction. We introduce a novel framework for analyzing the importance of small-scale structure in the extinction. This formalism demonstrates that the spatially complex effect of extinction on the selection function of a pencil-beam or contiguous sky survey is equivalent to a low-pass filtering of the extinction-affected selection function with the smooth density field. We find that the angular resolution of current 3D extinction maps is sufficient for analyzing Gaia sub-samples of millions of stars. However, the current distance resolution is inadequate and needs to be improved by an order of magnitude, especially in the inner Galaxy. We also present a practical and efficient method for properly taking the effect of extinction into account in analyses of Galactic structure through an effective selection function. We illustrate its use with the selection function of red-clump stars in APOGEE using and comparing a variety of current 3D extinction maps.

  12. Rethinking Extinction.

    PubMed

    Dunsmoor, Joseph E; Niv, Yael; Daw, Nathaniel; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2015-10-01

    Extinction serves as the leading theoretical framework and experimental model to describe how learned behaviors diminish through absence of anticipated reinforcement. In the past decade, extinction has moved beyond the realm of associative learning theory and behavioral experimentation in animals and has become a topic of considerable interest in the neuroscience of learning, memory, and emotion. Here, we review research and theories of extinction, both as a learning process and as a behavioral technique, and consider whether traditional understandings warrant a re-examination. We discuss the neurobiology, cognitive factors, and major computational theories, and revisit the predominant view that extinction results in new learning that interferes with expression of the original memory. Additionally, we reconsider the limitations of extinction as a technique to prevent the relapse of maladaptive behavior and discuss novel approaches, informed by contemporary theoretical advances, that augment traditional extinction methods to target and potentially alter maladaptive memories. PMID:26447572

  13. Fear Extinction as a Model for Translational Neuroscience: Ten Years of Progress

    PubMed Central

    Milad, Mohammed R.; Quirk, Gregory J.

    2016-01-01

    The psychology of extinction has been studied for decades. Approximately 10 years ago, however, there began a concerted effort to understand the neural circuits of extinction of fear conditioning, in both animals and humans. Progress during this period has been facilitated by an unusual degree of coordination between rodent and human researchers examining fear extinction. This successful research program could serve as a model for translational research in other areas of behavioral neuroscience. Here we review the major advances and highlight new approaches to understanding and exploiting fear extinction. PMID:22129456

  14. The wavelength dependent model of extinction in fog and haze for free space optical communication.

    PubMed

    Grabner, Martin; Kvicera, Vaclav

    2011-02-14

    The wavelength dependence of the extinction coefficient in fog and haze is investigated using Mie single scattering theory. It is shown that the effective radius of drop size distribution determines the slope of the log-log dependence of the extinction on wavelengths in the interval between 0.2 and 2 microns. The relation between the atmospheric visibility and the effective radius is derived from the empirical relationship of liquid water content and extinction. Based on these results, the model of the relationship between visibility and the extinction coefficient with different effective radii for fog and for haze conditions is proposed. PMID:21369160

  15. Modelling the Laurentide Ice Sheet using improved ice margin chronologies and glacio-isostatic observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gowan, Evan; Tregoning, Paul; Purcell, Anthony; Lambeck, Kurt

    2013-04-01

    Creating models of the Laurentide ice sheet is challenging, due to the deficiency of chronological constraints and the uneven spatial resolution of data to determine the evolution of the glacio-isostatic response after deglaciation. Previous models relied on uncalibrated radiocarbon constrained margins that proved to have deficiencies in recent studies. Additionally, many recent Laurentide ice sheet models have been developed by incorporating climatic parameters that are poorly resolved for the late glacial period. We present a new ice sheet model by an iterative process of changing basal shear stress values and ice sheet margin location. A particular focus of this study is to determine the thickness and extent of the western Laurentide ice sheet, where there were few well dated observations of glacio-isostatic motion until recently. The volume of an ice sheet during long periods depends mostly on basal shear stress and margin position, which are the main parameters that we vary to fit our model to glacio-isostatic observations. We build our ice model using the assumption of perfectly plastic, steady-state conditions, with variable basal shear stress. Basal shear stress values depend on the surficial geology underlying the ice, and are at a minimum in offshore regions that have soft, deformable sediments, and at a maximum in areas with exposed crystalline bedrock. This approach may not capture dynamic and short lived features of the ice sheet, such as ice streams and stagnant ice, but gives an approximation of average conditions to produce ice volumes that fit geophysical observations. We adjust the margin location when the shear stress conditions alone cannot account for the observed glacio-isostatic response. The constraints on the response include relative sea level benchmarks, sea level highstand positions and proglacial lakes. We repeat the analysis using different rheological profiles to determine the dependence the Earth model has on the estimation of ice

  16. Uncertainty-Dependent Extinction of Fear Memory in an Amygdala-mPFC Neural Circuit Model.

    PubMed

    Li, Yuzhe; Nakae, Ken; Ishii, Shin; Naoki, Honda

    2016-09-01

    Uncertainty of fear conditioning is crucial for the acquisition and extinction of fear memory. Fear memory acquired through partial pairings of a conditioned stimulus (CS) and an unconditioned stimulus (US) is more resistant to extinction than that acquired through full pairings; this effect is known as the partial reinforcement extinction effect (PREE). Although the PREE has been explained by psychological theories, the neural mechanisms underlying the PREE remain largely unclear. Here, we developed a neural circuit model based on three distinct types of neurons (fear, persistent and extinction neurons) in the amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). In the model, the fear, persistent and extinction neurons encode predictions of net severity, of unconditioned stimulus (US) intensity, and of net safety, respectively. Our simulation successfully reproduces the PREE. We revealed that unpredictability of the US during extinction was represented by the combined responses of the three types of neurons, which are critical for the PREE. In addition, we extended the model to include amygdala subregions and the mPFC to address a recent finding that the ventral mPFC (vmPFC) is required for consolidating extinction memory but not for memory retrieval. Furthermore, model simulations led us to propose a novel procedure to enhance extinction learning through re-conditioning with a stronger US; strengthened fear memory up-regulates the extinction neuron, which, in turn, further inhibits the fear neuron during re-extinction. Thus, our models increased the understanding of the functional roles of the amygdala and vmPFC in the processing of uncertainty in fear conditioning and extinction. PMID:27617747

  17. Glucocorticoid receptors and extinction retention deficits in the single prolonged stress model.

    PubMed

    Knox, D; Nault, T; Henderson, C; Liberzon, I

    2012-10-25

    Single prolonged stress (SPS) is a rodent model of post traumatic stress disorder that is comprised of serial application of restraint (r), forced swim (fs), and ether (eth) followed by a 7-day quiescent period. SPS induces extinction retention deficits and it is believed that these deficits are caused by the combined stressful effect of serial exposure to r, fs, and eth. However, this hypothesis remains untested. Neurobiological mechanisms by which SPS induces extinction retention deficits are unknown, but SPS enhances glucocorticoid receptor (GR) expression in the hippocampus, which is critical for contextual modulation of extinction retrieval. Upregulation of GRs in extinction circuits may be a mechanism by which SPS induces extinction retention deficits, but this hypothesis has not been examined. In this study, we systematically altered the stressors that constitute SPS (i.e. r, fs, eth), generating a number of partial SPS (p-SPS) groups, and observed the effects SPS and p-SPSs had on extinction retention and GR levels in the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex (PFC). PFC GRs were assayed, because regions of the PFC are critical for maintaining extinction. We predicted that only exposure to full SPS would result in extinction retention deficits and enhance hippocampal and PFC GR levels. Only exposure to full SPS induced extinction retention deficits. Hippocampal and PFC GR expression was enhanced by SPS and most p-SPSs, however hippocampal GR expression was significantly larger following the full SPS exposure than all other conditions. Our findings suggest that the combined stressful effect of serial exposure to r, fs, and eth results in extinction retention deficits. The results also suggest that simple enhancements in GR expression in the hippocampus and PFC are insufficient to result in extinction retention deficits, but raise the possibility that a threshold-enhancement in hippocampal GR expression contributes to SPS-induced extinction retention deficits

  18. Animal models of extinction-induced depression: loss of reward and its consequences.

    PubMed

    Huston, Joseph P; Silva, Maria A de Souza; Komorowski, Mara; Schulz, Daniela; Topic, Bianca

    2013-11-01

    The absence or loss of rewards or reinforcers holds a major role in the development of depression in humans. In spite of the prevalence of extinction-induced depression (EID) in humans, few attempts have been made to establish animal models thereof. Here we present the concept of extinction-related depression and summarize the results of two sets of studies in our attempt to create animal models of EID, one set based on extinction after positive reinforcement in the Skinner-box, the other on extinction after negative reinforcement - escape from water. We found various behaviors emitted during the extinction trials that responded to treatment with antidepressant drugs: Accordingly, the important behavioral marker for EID during extinction of escape from the water was immobility. During extinction after positive reinforcement the important indices for extinction-induced depression are the withdrawal from the former site of reward, biting behavior and rearing up on the hind legs. Avoidance behavior and biting may model aspects of human depressive behavior, which may include withdrawal or avoidance as well as aggressive-like behaviors. PMID:23466533

  19. Extinction learning deficit in a rodent model of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Deficient operant extinction has been hypothesized to be constitutive of ADHD dysfunction. In order to elucidate the behavioral mechanisms underlying this deficit, the performance of an animal model of ADHD, the spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHR), was compared against the performance of a control strain, the Wistar-Kyoto rat (WKY) during extinction. Method Following extensive training of lever pressing under variable interval schedules of food reinforcement (reported previously), SHR and WKY rats were exposed to two sessions of extinction training. Extinction data was analyzed using the Dynamic Bi-Exponential Refractory Model (DBERM) of operant performance. DBERM assumes that operant responses are organized in bouts separated by pauses; during extinction, bouts may decline across multiple dimensions, including frequency and length. DBERM parameters were estimated using hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Results SHR responded more than WKY during the first extinction session. DBERM parameter estimates revealed that, at the onset of extinction, SHR produced more response bouts than WKY. Over the course of extinction, response bouts progressively shortened for WKY but not for SHR. Conclusions Based on prior findings on the sensitivity of DBERM parameters to motivational and schedule manipulations, present data suggests that (1) more frequent response bouts in SHR are likely related to greater incentive motivation, and (2) the persistent length of bouts in SHR are likely related to a slower updating of the response-outcome association. Overall, these findings suggest specific motivational and learning deficits that may explain ADHD-related impairments in operant performance. PMID:23237608

  20. Assessment of Chronological Effects of Irreversible Electroporation on Hilar Bile Ducts in a Porcine Model

    SciTech Connect

    Choi, Jae Woong Lu, David S. K. Osuagwu, Ferdnand Raman, Steven; Lassman, Charles

    2013-11-07

    PurposeTo evaluate the chronological effects of irreversible electroporation (IRE) on large hilar bile ducts in an in vivo porcine model correlated with computed tomography (CT) cholangiography and histopathology.Materials and MethodsTwelve IRE zones were made along hilar bile ducts intraoperatively under ultrasound (US)-guidance in 11 pigs. Paired electrodes were placed either on opposing sides of the bile duct (straddle [STR]) or both on one side of the bile duct (one-sided [OSD]). The shortest electrode-to-duct distance was classified as periductal (≤2 mm) or nonperiductal (>2 mm). CT cholangiography and laboratory tests were performed before IRE and again at 2 days, 4 weeks, and 8 weeks after IRE. Degree of bile duct injury were graded as follows: grade 0 = no narrowing; grade 1 = ≤50 % duct narrowing; grade 2 = >50 % narrowing without proximal duct dilatation; grade 3 = grade 2 with proximal duct dilatation; and grade 4 = grade 3 with enzyme elevation. Pigs were selected for killing and histopathology at 2 days, 4, and 8 weeks.ResultsNonperiductal electrode placement produced no long-term strictures in 5 of 5 ducts. Periductal electrode placement produced mild narrowing in 6 of 7 ducts: 5 grade 1 and 1 grade 2. None showed increased enzymes. There was no significant difference between STR versus OSD electrode placement. Histopathology showed minor but relatively greater ductal mural changes in narrowed ducts.ConclusionIn the larger hilar ducts, long-term patency and mural integrity appear resistant to IRE damage with the energy deposition used, especially if the electrode is not immediately periductal in position.

  1. Aerosol extinction models based on measurements at two sites in Sweden.

    PubMed

    Kaurila, Timo; Hågård, Arne; Persson, Rolf

    2006-09-10

    Two aerosol extinction models have been developed using statistical analysis of long-term optical transmission measurements in Sweden performed at two locations from July 1977 to June 1982. The aerosol volume extinction coefficient for infrared (IR) radiation is calculated by the models with visibility, temperature, and air pressure as input parameters. As in the MODTRAN model, the IR extinction coefficient is proportional to the coefficient at 550 nm, which depends on the visibility. In the new models, the wavelength dependence of the extinction also depends on the visibility. The models predict significantly higher attenuation in the IR than does the Rural aerosol model from MODTRAN, which is commonly used. Comparison with the Maritime model shows that the new models predict lower extinction values in the 3-5 microm region and higher values in the 8-12 microm region. The uncertainties in terms of variance levels are calculated by the models. The properties of aerosols, and thereby the extinction coefficient, are partly correlated to local meteorological parameters, which enables the calculation of a mean predicted value. A substantial part of the variation is, however, caused by conditions in the source area and along the trajectory path of the aerosols. They are not correlated to the local meteorological parameters and therefore cause the variance in the models. PMID:16926909

  2. Methylene blue facilitates the extinction of fear in an animal model of susceptibility to learned helplessness.

    PubMed

    Wrubel, Kathryn M; Barrett, Douglas; Shumake, Jason; Johnson, S Elizabeth; Gonzalez-Lima, F

    2007-02-01

    The objectives were to (1) extend previous findings on fear extinction deficits in male congenitally helpless rats (a model for susceptibility to learned helplessness) to female congenitally helpless rats, and (2) attempt a therapeutic intervention with methylene blue, a metabolic enhancer that improves memory retention, to alleviate the predicted extinction deficits. In the first experiment, fear acquisition (four tone-shock pairings in operant chamber) was followed by extinction training (60 tones in open field). Congenitally helpless rats showed fear acquisition similar to controls but had dramatic extinction deficits, and did not display the gradual extinction curves observed in controls. Congenitally helpless rats demonstrated greater tone-evoked freezing as compared to controls in both the acquisition and extinction contexts one week after extinction training, and also in the extinction probe conducted one month later. In the second experiment (which began one month after the first experiment) congenitally helpless subjects were further exposed to tones for 5 days, each followed by 4 mg/kg methylene blue or saline IP, and had a fear renewal test in the acquisition context. Methylene blue administration improved retention of the extinction memory as demonstrated by significant decreases in fear renewal as compared to saline-administered congenitally helpless subjects. The impaired ability to extinguish fear to a traumatic memory in congenitally helpless rats supports the validity of this strain as an animal model for vulnerability to post-traumatic stress disorder, and this study further suggests that methylene blue may facilitate fear extinction as an adjunct to exposure therapy. PMID:17011803

  3. Evaluating ice sheet model spinup procedures using chronological data constraining ice margin positions over time on Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Applegate, P. J.; Kirchner, N.; Levy, L.; Kelly, M. A.; Lowell, T. V.; Greve, R.

    2011-12-01

    We compare a recently-published ice sheet model run to field data constraining ice margin positions over time on Greenland, to assess presently-accepted model spinup procedures. Computer models describing ice flow and mass balance are important tools for learning about the future behavior of ice sheets in a warming world. Because ice softness is temperature-sensitive and the thermal field within the ice sheet is mostly unknown, ice sheet models must be "spun up" using paleoclimate data before future changes can be estimated. The models produce ice margin positions over time during the spinup, allowing comparison with field data such as cosmogenic exposure dates and radiocarbon dating of organic matter. If the agreement between modeled and reconstructed ice margin positions is good, we can have increased confidence in the models' ability to forecast future changes. For the present study, we use a model setup from Greve et al. (2011; Annals of Glaciology 52, 23-30; sicopolis.greveweb.net), and a preliminary collection of chronological data. We aggregate the chronological data to the model grid, then plot the data and modeled ice margin positions as time-distance diagrams along west-east transects. Our results have implications for the use of the Summit ice cores to predict mass balance around the margins of the ice sheet and future projections of sea level rise using ice sheet models.

  4. IceChrono1: a probabilistic model to compute a common and optimal chronology for several ice cores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parrenin, Frédéric; Bazin, Lucie; Capron, Emilie; Landais, Amaëlle; Lemieux-Dudon, Bénédicte; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

    2016-04-01

    Polar ice cores provide exceptional archives of past environmental conditions. The dating of ice cores and the estimation of the age scale uncertainty are essential to interpret the climate and environmental records that they contain. It is however a complex problem which involves different methods. Here, we present IceChrono1, a new probabilistic model integrating various sources of chronological information to produce a common and optimized chronology for several ice cores, as well as its uncertainty. IceChrono1 is based on the inversion of three quantities: the surface accumulation rate, the Lock-In Depth (LID) of air bubbles and the thinning function. The chronological information integrated into the model are: models of the sedimentation process (accumulation of snow, densification of snow into ice and air trapping, ice flow), ice and air dated horizons, ice and air depth intervals with known durations, Δdepth observations (depth shift between synchronous events recorded in the ice and in the air) and finally air and ice stratigraphic links in between ice cores. The optimization is formulated as a least squares problem, implying that all densities of probabilities are assumed to be Gaussian. It is numerically solved using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm and a numerical evaluation of the model's Jacobian. IceChrono follows an approach similar to that of the Datice model which was recently used to produce the AICC2012 chronology for 4 Antarctic ice cores and 1 Greenland ice core. IceChrono1 provides improvements and simplifications with respect to Datice from the mathematical, numerical and programming point of views. The capabilities of IceChrono is demonstrated on a case study similar to the AICC2012 dating experiment. We find results similar to those of Datice, within a few centuries, which is a confirmation of both IceChrono and Datice codes. We also test new functionalities with respect to the original version of Datice: observations as ice intervals

  5. Limits to biodiversity cycles from a unified model of mass-extinction events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feulner, Georg

    2011-04-01

    Episodes of species mass extinction dramatically affected the evolution of life on Earth, but their causes remain a source of debate. Even more controversy surrounds the hypothesis of periodicity in the fossil record, with conflicting views still being published in the scientific literature, often even based on the same state-of-the-art datasets. From an empirical point of view, limitations of the currently available data on extinctions and possible causes remain an important issue. From a theoretical point of view, it is likely that a focus on single extinction causes and strong periodic forcings has strongly contributed to this controversy. Here I show that if there is a periodic extinction signal at all, it is much more likely to result from a combination of a comparatively weak periodic cause and various random factors. Tests of this unified model of mass extinctions on the available data show that the model is formally better than a model with random extinction causes only. However, the contribution of the periodic component is small compared to factors such as impacts or volcanic eruptions.

  6. Physical Dust Models for the Extinction toward Supernova 2014J in M82

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Jian; Jiang, B. W.; Li, Aigen; Li, Jun; Wang, Xiaofeng

    2015-07-01

    Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are powerful cosmological “standardizable candles” and the most precise distance indicators. However, a limiting factor in their use for precision cosmology rests on our ability to correct for the dust extinction toward them. SN 2014J in the starburst galaxy M82, the closest detected SN Ia in three decades, provides unparalleled opportunities to study the dust extinction toward an SN Ia. In order to derive the extinction as a function of wavelength, we model the color excesses toward SN 2014J, which are observationally derived over a wide wavelength range, in terms of dust models consisting of a mixture of silicate and graphite. The resulting extinction laws steeply, rise toward the far-ultraviolet, even steeper than that of the SMC. We infer a visual extinction of {A}V≈ 1.9 {mag}, a reddening of E(B-V)≈ 1.1 {mag}, and a total-to-selective extinction ratio of RV ≈ 1.7, consistent with that previously derived from photometric, spectroscopic, and polarimetric observations. The size distributions of the dust in the interstellar medium toward SN 2014J are skewed toward substantially smaller grains than that of the Milky Way and the SMC.

  7. Extinction Dynamics and Evolution of a Survivability-Based Multi-Level Food-Web Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berger, B. W.; Boulter, C. J.

    A multi-level evolution model where forced extinctions occur throughout the system based on a species fitness value (or survivability) is developed that is essentially the fusion of the evolution model of Bak and Sneppen and the food-web model of Amaral and Meyer. This model is found to describe the fossil record and behave as a self-organized critical system with a power law exponent of approximately 2, but is also found to be remarkably similar to a model that causes the forced extinctions randomly throughout the system. To explain this result we show that fitness is nearly randomly distributed with a slight peak in forced extinction (due to fitness) in the middle levels. These findings lend strong support to the hypothesis that coextinction effects (propagated through a food-web) provide a robust explanation of the fossil record, independent of the mechanism for species competition.

  8. An absolute chronology for early Egypt using radiocarbon dating and Bayesian statistical modelling

    PubMed Central

    Dee, Michael; Wengrow, David; Shortland, Andrew; Stevenson, Alice; Brock, Fiona; Girdland Flink, Linus; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    The Egyptian state was formed prior to the existence of verifiable historical records. Conventional dates for its formation are based on the relative ordering of artefacts. This approach is no longer considered sufficient for cogent historical analysis. Here, we produce an absolute chronology for Early Egypt by combining radiocarbon and archaeological evidence within a Bayesian paradigm. Our data cover the full trajectory of Egyptian state formation and indicate that the process occurred more rapidly than previously thought. We provide a timeline for the First Dynasty of Egypt of generational-scale resolution that concurs with prevailing archaeological analysis and produce a chronometric date for the foundation of Egypt that distinguishes between historical estimates. PMID:24204188

  9. Detecting Hidden Diversification Shifts in Models of Trait-Dependent Speciation and Extinction.

    PubMed

    Beaulieu, Jeremy M; O'Meara, Brian C

    2016-07-01

    The distribution of diversity can vary considerably from clade to clade. Attempts to understand these patterns often employ state-dependent speciation and extinction models to determine whether the evolution of a particular novel trait has increased speciation rates and/or decreased extinction rates. It is still unclear, however, whether these models are uncovering important drivers of diversification, or whether they are simply pointing to more complex patterns involving many unmeasured and co-distributed factors. Here we describe an extension to the popular state-dependent speciation and extinction models that specifically accounts for the presence of unmeasured factors that could impact diversification rates estimated for the states of any observed trait, addressing at least one major criticism of BiSSE (Binary State Speciation and Extinction) methods. Specifically, our model, which we refer to as HiSSE (Hidden State Speciation and Extinction), assumes that related to each observed state in the model are "hidden" states that exhibit potentially distinct diversification dynamics and transition rates than the observed states in isolation. We also demonstrate how our model can be used as character-independent diversification models that allow for a complex diversification process that is independent of the evolution of a character. Under rigorous simulation tests and when applied to empirical data, we find that HiSSE performs reasonably well, and can at least detect net diversification rate differences between observed and hidden states and detect when diversification rate differences do not correlate with the observed states. We discuss the remaining issues with state-dependent speciation and extinction models in general, and the important ways in which HiSSE provides a more nuanced understanding of trait-dependent diversification. PMID:27016728

  10. Dust in the small Magellanic Cloud. 2: Dust models from interstellar polarization and extinction data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodrigues, C. V.; Magalhaes, A. M.; Coyne, G. V.

    1995-01-01

    We study the dust in the Small Magellanic Cloud using our polarization and extinction data (Paper 1) and existing dust models. The data suggest that the monotonic SMC extinction curve is related to values of lambda(sub max), the wavelength of maximum polarization, which are on the average smaller than the mean for the Galaxy. On the other hand, AZV 456, a star with an extinction similar to that for the Galaxy, shows a value of lambda(sub max) similar to the mean for the Galaxy. We discuss simultaneous dust model fits to extinction and polarization. Fits to the wavelength dependent polarization data are possible for stars with small lambda(sub max). In general, they imply dust size distributions which are narrower and have smaller mean sizes compared to typical size distributions for the Galaxy. However, stars with lambda(sub max) close to the Galactic norm, which also have a narrower polarization curve, cannot be fit adequately. This holds true for all of the dust models considered. The best fits to the extinction curves are obtained with a power law size distribution by assuming that the cylindrical and spherical silicate grains have a volume distribution which is continuous from the smaller spheres to the larger cylinders. The size distribution for the cylinders is taken from the fit to the polarization. The 'typical', monotonic SMC extinction curve can be fit well with graphite and silicate grains if a small fraction of the SMC carbon is locked up in the grain. However, amorphous carbon and silicate grains also fit the data well. AZV456, which has an extinction curve similar to that for the Galaxy, has a UV bump which is too blue to be fit by spherical graphite grains.

  11. The use of cognitive enhancers in animal models of fear extinction.

    PubMed

    Kaplan, Gary B; Moore, Katherine A

    2011-08-01

    In anxiety disorders, such as posttraumatic stress disorders and phobias, classical conditioning pairs natural (unconditioned) fear-eliciting stimuli with contextual or discrete cues resulting in enduring fear responses to multiple stimuli. Extinction is an active learning process that results in a reduction of conditioned fear responses after conditioned stimuli are no longer paired with unconditioned stimuli. Fear extinction often produces incomplete effects and this highlights the relative permanence of bonds between conditioned stimuli and conditioned fear responses. The animal research literature is rich in its demonstration of cognitive enhancing agents that alter fear extinction. This review specifically examines the fear extinguishing effects of cognitive enhancers that act on gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), glutamatergic, cholinergic, adrenergic, dopaminergic, and cannabinoid signaling pathways. It also examines the effects of compounds that alter epigenetic and neurotrophic mechanisms in fear extinction. Of these cognitive enhancers, glutamatergic N-methyl d-aspartate (NMDA) receptor agonists, such as D-cycloserine, have enhanced fear extinction in a context-, dose- and time-dependent manner. Agents that function as glutamatergic α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic acid (AMPA) receptor agonists, alpha2-adrenergic receptor antagonists (such as yohimbine), neurotrophic factors (brain derived neurotrophic factor or BDNF) and histone deacetylase inhibitors (valproate and sodium butyrate) also improve fear extinction in animals. However, some have anxiogenic effects and their contextual and temporal effects need to be more reliably demonstrated. Various cognitive enhancers produce changes in cortico-amygdala synaptic plasticity through multiple mechanisms and these neural changes enhance fear extinction. We need to better define the changes in neural plasticity produced by these agents in order to develop more effective compounds. In the clinical

  12. Fear extinction and BDNF: translating animal models of PTSD to the clinic.

    PubMed

    Andero, R; Ressler, K J

    2012-07-01

    Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is the most studied neurotrophin involved in synaptic plasticity processes that are required for long-term learning and memory. Specifically, BDNF gene expression and activation of its high-affinity tropomyosin-related kinase B (TrkB) receptor are necessary in the amygdala, hippocampus and prefrontal cortex for the formation of emotional memories, including fear memories. Among the psychiatric disorders with altered fear processing, there is post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) which is characterized by an inability to extinguish fear memories. Since BDNF appears to enhance extinction of fear, targeting impaired extinction in anxiety disorders such as PTSD via BDNF signalling may be an important and novel way to enhance treatment efficacy. The aim of this review is to provide a translational point of view that stems from findings in the BDNF regulation of synaptic plasticity and fear extinction. In addition, there are different systems that seem to alter fear extinction through BDNF modulation like the endocannabinoid system and the hypothalamic-pituitary adrenal axis. Recent work also finds that the pituitary adenylate cyclase-activating polypeptide and PAC1 receptor, which are upstream of BDNF activation, may be implicated in PTSD. Especially interesting are data that exogenous fear extinction enhancers such as antidepressants, histone deacetylases inhibitors and D-cycloserine, a partial N-methyl d-aspartate agonist, may act through or in concert with the BDNF-TrkB system. Finally, we review studies where recombinant BDNF and a putative TrkB agonist, 7,8-dihydroxyflavone, may enhance extinction of fear. These approaches may lead to novel agents that improve extinction in animal models and eventually humans. PMID:22530815

  13. Accurate Modeling of X-ray Extinction by Interstellar Grains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffman, John; Draine, B. T.

    2016-02-01

    Interstellar abundance determinations from fits to X-ray absorption edges often rely on the incorrect assumption that scattering is insignificant and can be ignored. We show instead that scattering contributes significantly to the attenuation of X-rays for realistic dust grain size distributions and substantially modifies the spectrum near absorption edges of elements present in grains. The dust attenuation modules used in major X-ray spectral fitting programs do not take this into account. We show that the consequences of neglecting scattering on the determination of interstellar elemental abundances are modest; however, scattering (along with uncertainties in the grain size distribution) must be taken into account when near-edge extinction fine structure is used to infer dust mineralogy. We advertise the benefits and accuracy of anomalous diffraction theory for both X-ray halo analysis and near edge absorption studies. We present an open source Fortran suite, General Geometry Anomalous Diffraction Theory (GGADT), that calculates X-ray absorption, scattering, and differential scattering cross sections for grains of arbitrary geometry and composition.

  14. Repeated extinction and reversal learning of an approach response supports an arousal-mediated learning model

    PubMed Central

    Podlesnik, Christopher A.; Sanabria, Federico

    2016-01-01

    We assessed the effects of repeated extinction and reversals of two conditional stimuli (CS+/CS−) on an appetitive conditioned approach response in rats. Three results were observed that could not be accounted for by a simple linear operator model such as the one proposed by Rescorla and Wagner (1972): (1) responding to a CS− declined faster when a CS+ was simultaneously extinguished; (2) reacquisition of pre-extinction performance recovered rapidly within one session; and (3) reversal of CS+/CS− contingencies resulted in a more rapid recovery to the current CS− (former CS+) than the current CS+, accompanied by a slower acquisition of performance to the current CS+. An arousal parameter that mediates learning was introduced to a linear operator model to account for these effects. The arousal-mediated learning model adequately fit the data and predicted data from a second experiment with different rats in which only repeated reversals of CS+/CS− were assessed. According to this arousal-mediated learning model, learning is accelerated by US-elicited arousal and it slows down in the absence of US. Because arousal varies faster than conditioning, the model accounts for the decline in responding during extinction mainly through a reduction in arousal, not a change in learning. By preserving learning during extinction, the model is able to account for relapse effects like rapid reacquisition, renewal, and reinstatement. PMID:21172410

  15. Repeated extinction and reversal learning of an approach response supports an arousal-mediated learning model.

    PubMed

    Podlesnik, Christopher A; Sanabria, Federico

    2011-05-01

    We assessed the effects of repeated extinction and reversals of two conditional stimuli (CS+/CS-) on an appetitive conditioned approach response in rats. Three results were observed that could not be accounted for by a simple linear operator model such as the one proposed by Rescorla and Wagner (1972): (1) responding to a CS- declined faster when a CS+ was simultaneously extinguished; (2) reacquisition of pre-extinction performance recovered rapidly within one session; and (3) reversal of CS+/CS- contingencies resulted in a more rapid recovery to the current CS- (former CS+) than the current CS+, accompanied by a slower acquisition of performance to the current CS+. An arousal parameter that mediates learning was introduced to a linear operator model to account for these effects. The arousal-mediated learning model adequately fit the data and predicted data from a second experiment with different rats in which only repeated reversals of CS+/CS- were assessed. According to this arousal-mediated learning model, learning is accelerated by US-elicited arousal and it slows down in the absence of US. Because arousal varies faster than conditioning, the model accounts for the decline in responding during extinction mainly through a reduction in arousal, not a change in learning. By preserving learning during extinction, the model is able to account for relapse effects like rapid reacquisition, renewal, and reinstatement. PMID:21172410

  16. Large extinctions in an evolutionary model: The role of innovation and keystone species

    PubMed Central

    Jain, Sanjay; Krishna, Sandeep

    2002-01-01

    The causes of major and rapid transitions observed in biological macroevolution as well as in the evolution of social systems are a subject of much debate. Here we identify the proximate causes of crashes and recoveries that arise dynamically in a model system in which populations of (molecular) species coevolve with their network of chemical interactions. Crashes are events that involve the rapid extinction of many species, and recoveries the assimilation of new ones. These are analyzed and classified in terms of the structural properties of the network. We find that in the absence of large external perturbation, “innovation” is a major cause of large extinctions and the prime cause of recoveries. Another major cause of crashes is the extinction of a “keystone species.” Different classes of causes produce crashes of different characteristic sizes. PMID:11842190

  17. Large extinctions in an evolutionary model: The role of innovation and keystone species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jain, Sanjay; Krishna, Sandeep

    2002-02-01

    The causes of major and rapid transitions observed in biological macroevolution as well as in the evolution of social systems are a subject of much debate. Here we identify the proximate causes of crashes and recoveries that arise dynamically in a model system in which populations of (molecular) species coevolve with their network of chemical interactions. Crashes are events that involve the rapid extinction of many species, and recoveries the assimilation of new ones. These are analyzed and classified in terms of the structural properties of the network. We find that in the absence of large external perturbation, "innovation" is a major cause of large extinctions and the prime cause of recoveries. Another major cause of crashes is the extinction of a "keystone species." Different classes of causes produce crashes of different characteristic sizes.

  18. Orbital Debris: A Chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Portree, Davis S. F. (Editor); Loftus, Joseph P., Jr. (Editor)

    1999-01-01

    This chronology covers the 37-year history of orbital debris concerns. It tracks orbital debris hazard creation, research, observation, experimentation, management, mitigation, protection, and policy. Included are debris-producing, events; U.N. orbital debris treaties, Space Shuttle and space station orbital debris issues; ASAT tests; milestones in theory and modeling; uncontrolled reentries; detection system development; shielding development; geosynchronous debris issues, including reboost policies: returned surfaces studies, seminar papers reports, conferences, and studies; the increasing effect of space activities on astronomy; and growing international awareness of the near-Earth environment.

  19. Toward an animal model of extinction-induced despair: focus on aging and physiological indices.

    PubMed

    Huston, Joseph P; Schulz, Daniela; Topic, Bianca

    2009-08-01

    Behaviors that are under the control of positive or negative reinforcers undergo extinction when the anticipated reward/reinforcer is withheld. Despair, an important symptom of environmentally determined depression in humans, can be generated by extinction, or the failure of expected reward to accrue. Although well known to clinicians dealing with depressive patients, an animal model has not been available for extinction-induced depression. We have made a beginning towards validating such a model, based on the extinction of negatively reinforced behavior in the rat, i.e., upon removal of the possibility to escape onto a safety platform in the water maze. As a marker for despair, we employed behavioral immobility, i.e., the cessation of swimming in the attempt to find safety from the water, presumably, a type of learned helplessness. This measure was sensitive to antidepressants and correlated with neurotransmitter contents, neurotrophins and hypothalamus-pituitary adrenal axis markers in selected sites of the brain. Given that some cases of depression in the elderly may be biologically distinct from others and from early-onset depression, and since particularly the aged are prone to experience extinction-induced despair, we compared aged (ca. 24 months old) animals with adults in most of our studies. We found a number of distinct differences in behavioral and biological measures, indicative of differences in propensity to, as well as response to, extinction-induced despair between aged and adults. Our results add to the body of evidence for differences in the neurobiological substrates of depressive disorders between aged and adults, with the implication for the requirement of different treatment strategies in these two populations. PMID:19350220

  20. The extinction and persistence of the stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Yanan; Jiang, Daqing; O'Regan, Donal

    2013-10-01

    In this paper, we discuss the dynamics of a stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination. When the noise is large, the infective decays exponentially to zero regardless of the magnitude of R0. When the noise is small, sufficient conditions for extinction exponentially and persistence in the mean are established. The results are illustrated by computer simulations.

  1. Topography of the goldfish optic tracts: implications for the chronological clustering model.

    PubMed

    Springer, A D; Mednick, A S

    1985-09-01

    Both the dorsal and ventral optic tracts of goldfish have similar shapes when they are sectioned perpendicularly to their longitudinal axes. Each tract is pear-shaped, consisting of a narrow and a deep apex, a wide midspan, and a progressively curved and tapered superficial base. The tracts differ in that the apex of the dorsal optic tract points caudally, while the apex of the ventral optic tract points medially. In addition, upon segregating from the main optic tract, the dorsal optic tract courses dorsally while the ventral optic tract courses caudally. Thus, the two optic tracts have similar shapes and are orthongonal to one another. The topography of the retinal fibers within the optic tracts was determined either by ablating part of the retina and subsequently filling the axons from the intact hemiretina with cobaltous-lysine or by applying cobaltous-lysine to a slit in the retina. Both optic tracts contain a similar arrangement of optic fibers. Axons of central retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) are in the apex of each tract and optic fibers of peripheral RGCs are located along the base of each tract. Axons of temporal RGCs are located dorsally in the ventral optic tract and laterally in the dorsal optic tract, while axons of nasal RGCs are located ventrally in the ventral optic tract and medially in the dorsal optic tract. These findings indicate that the optic axons are organized as laminae. Deeper laminae contain the axons of older annuli of RGCs and superficial laminae contain the axons of younger annuli of RGCs. This type of chronological organization appears to be consistent across vertebrates.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:4044928

  2. Individual-based vs deterministic models for macroparasites: host cycles and extinction.

    PubMed

    Rosà, Roberto; Pugliese, Andrea; Villani, Alessandro; Rizzoli, Annapaola

    2003-06-01

    Our understanding of the qualitative dynamics of host-macroparasite systems is mainly based on deterministic models. We study here an individual-based stochastic model that incorporates the same assumptions as the classical deterministic model. Stochastic simulations, using parameter values based on some case studies, preserve many features of the deterministic model, like the average value of the variables and the approximate length of the cycles. An important difference is that, even when deterministic models yield damped oscillations, stochastic simulations yield apparently sustained oscillations. The amplitude of such oscillations may be so large to threaten parasites' persistence.With density-dependence in parasite demographic traits, persistence increases somewhat. Allowing instead for infections from an external parasite reservoir, we found that host extinction may easily occur. However, the extinction probability is almost independent of the level of external infection over a wide intermediate parameter region. PMID:12742175

  3. Persistence, extinction and spatio-temporal synchronization of SIRS spatial models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Quan-Xing; Wang, Rong-Hua; Jin, Zhen

    2009-07-01

    Spatially explicit models are widely used in today's mathematical ecology and epidemiology to study persistence and extinction of populations as well as their spatial patterns. Here we extend the earlier work on static dispersal between neighboring individuals to the mobility of individuals as well as multi-patch environments. As is commonly found, the basic reproductive ratio is maximized for the evolutionarily stable strategy for disease persistence in mean field theory. This has important implications, as it implies that for a wide range of parameters the infection rate tends to a maximum. This is opposite to the present result obtained from spatially explicit models, which is that the infection rate is limited by an upper bound. We observe the emergence of trade-offs of extinction and persistence for the parameters of the infection period and infection rate, and show the extinction time as having a linear relationship with respect to system size. We further find that higher mobility can pronouncedly promote the persistence of the spread of epidemics, i.e., a phase transition occurs from the extinction domain to the persistence domain, and the wavelength of the spirals increases with the mobility ratio enhancement and will ultimately saturate at a certain value. Furthermore, for the multi-patch case, we find that lower coupling strength leads to anti-phase oscillation of the infected fraction, while higher coupling strength corresponds to in-phase oscillation.

  4. Merging tree ring chronologies and climate system model simulated temperature by optimal interpolation algorithm in North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xin; Xing, Pei; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Nie, Suping; Huang, Jianbin; Wang, Shaowu; Tian, Qinhua

    2015-04-01

    A new dataset of annual mean surface temperature has been constructed over North America in recent 500 years by performing optimal interpolation (OI) algorithm. Totally, 149 series totally were screened out including 69 tree ring width (MXD) and 80 tree ring width (TRW) chronologies are screened from International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB). The simulated annual mean surface temperature derives from the past1000 experiment results of Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Different from existing research that applying data assimilation approach to (General Circulation Models) GCMs simulation, the errors of both the climate model simulation and tree ring reconstruction were considered, with a view to combining the two parts in an optimal way. Variance matching (VM) was employed to calibrate tree ring chronologies on CRUTEM4v, and corresponding errors were estimated through leave-one-out process. Background error covariance matrix was estimated from samples of simulation results in a running 30-year window in a statistical way. Actually, the background error covariance matrix was calculated locally within the scanning range (2000km in this research). Thus, the merging process continued with a time-varying local gain matrix. The merging method (MM) was tested by two kinds of experiments, and the results indicated standard deviation of errors can be reduced by about 0.3 degree centigrade lower than tree ring reconstructions and 0.5 degree centigrade lower than model simulation. During the recent Obvious decadal variability can be identified in MM results including the evident cooling (0.10 degree per decade) in 1940-60s, wherein the model simulation exhibit a weak increasing trend (0.05 degree per decade) instead. MM results revealed a compromised spatial pattern of the linear trend of surface temperature during a typical period (1601-1800 AD) in Little Ice Age, which basically accorded with the phase transitions of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and

  5. A cross-immunization model for the extinction of old influenza strains

    PubMed Central

    Uekermann, Florian; Sneppen, Kim

    2016-01-01

    Given the frequent mutation of antigenic features, the constancy of genetic and antigenic diversity of influenza within a subtype is surprising. While the emergence of new strains and antigenic features is commonly attributed to selection by the human immune system, the mechanism that ensures the extinction of older strains remains controversial. To replicate this dynamics of replacement current models utilize mechanisms such as short-lived strain-transcending immunity, a direct competition for hosts, stochastic extinction or constrained antigenic evolution. Building on the idea of short-lived immunity we introduce a minimal model that exhibits the aforementioned dynamics of replacement. Our model relies only on competition due to an antigen specific immune-response in an unconstrained antigenic space. Furthermore the model explains the size of typical influenza epidemics as well as the tendency that new epidemics are associated with mutations of old antigens. PMID:27174658

  6. Optical modeling of aerosol extinction for remote sensing in the marine environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaloshin, G. A.

    2013-05-01

    A microphysical model is presented for the surface layer marine and coastal atmospheric aerosols that is based on long-term observations of size distributions for 0.01-100 μm particles in different geographic sites. The fundamental feature of the model is a parameterization of amplitudes and widths for aerosol modes of the aerosol size distribution function (ASDF) as functions of fetch and wind speed. The shape of the ASDF and its dependence on meteorological parameters, altitudes above sea level (H), fetch (X), wind speed (U) and relative humidity (RH) are investigated. The spectral profiles of the aerosol extinction coefficients calculated by MaexPro (Marine Aerosol Extinction Profiles) are in good agreement with observational data and the numerical results obtained from the Navy Aerosol Model (NAM) and the Advanced Navy Aerosol Model (ANAM). Moreover, MaexPro was found to be an accurate and reliable tool for investigation of the optical properties of atmospheric aerosols.

  7. The evolution and extinction of the ichthyosaurs from the perspective of quantitative ecospace modelling.

    PubMed

    Dick, Daniel G; Maxwell, Erin E

    2015-07-01

    The role of niche specialization and narrowing in the evolution and extinction of the ichthyosaurs has been widely discussed in the literature. However, previous studies have concentrated on a qualitative discussion of these variables only. Here, we use the recently developed approach of quantitative ecospace modelling to provide a high-resolution quantitative examination of the changes in dietary and ecological niche experienced by the ichthyosaurs throughout their evolution in the Mesozoic. In particular, we demonstrate that despite recent discoveries increasing our understanding of taxonomic diversity among the ichthyosaurs in the Cretaceous, when viewed from the perspective of ecospace modelling, a clear trend of ecological contraction is visible as early as the Middle Jurassic. We suggest that this ecospace redundancy, if carried through to the Late Cretaceous, could have contributed to the extinction of the ichthyosaurs. Additionally, our results suggest a novel model to explain ecospace change, termed the 'migration model'. PMID:26156130

  8. A cross-immunization model for the extinction of old influenza strains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uekermann, Florian; Sneppen, Kim

    2016-05-01

    Given the frequent mutation of antigenic features, the constancy of genetic and antigenic diversity of influenza within a subtype is surprising. While the emergence of new strains and antigenic features is commonly attributed to selection by the human immune system, the mechanism that ensures the extinction of older strains remains controversial. To replicate this dynamics of replacement current models utilize mechanisms such as short-lived strain-transcending immunity, a direct competition for hosts, stochastic extinction or constrained antigenic evolution. Building on the idea of short-lived immunity we introduce a minimal model that exhibits the aforementioned dynamics of replacement. Our model relies only on competition due to an antigen specific immune-response in an unconstrained antigenic space. Furthermore the model explains the size of typical influenza epidemics as well as the tendency that new epidemics are associated with mutations of old antigens.

  9. A cross-immunization model for the extinction of old influenza strains.

    PubMed

    Uekermann, Florian; Sneppen, Kim

    2016-01-01

    Given the frequent mutation of antigenic features, the constancy of genetic and antigenic diversity of influenza within a subtype is surprising. While the emergence of new strains and antigenic features is commonly attributed to selection by the human immune system, the mechanism that ensures the extinction of older strains remains controversial. To replicate this dynamics of replacement current models utilize mechanisms such as short-lived strain-transcending immunity, a direct competition for hosts, stochastic extinction or constrained antigenic evolution. Building on the idea of short-lived immunity we introduce a minimal model that exhibits the aforementioned dynamics of replacement. Our model relies only on competition due to an antigen specific immune-response in an unconstrained antigenic space. Furthermore the model explains the size of typical influenza epidemics as well as the tendency that new epidemics are associated with mutations of old antigens. PMID:27174658

  10. Modeling Neutron Star and Galactic Black Hole Emission: The Impact of Proper Extinction Calculations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Randall K.; Valencic, Lynne A.; Corrales, Lia

    2016-04-01

    Interstellar extinction includes both absorption and scattering of photons from interstellar gas and dust grains, and it has the effect of altering a source's spectrum and its total observed intensity. However, while multiple absorption models exist, there are no useful scattering models in standard X-ray spectrum fitting tools, such as XSPEC. Nonetheless, X-ray halos, created by scattering from dust grains, are detected around even moderately absorbed sources and the impact on an observed source spectrum can be significant, if modest, compared to direct absorption. By convolving the scattering cross section with dust models, we have created a spectral model as a function of energy, type of dust, and extraction region that can be used with models of direct absorption. This will ensure the extinction model is consistent and enable direct connections to be made between a source's X-ray spectral fits and its UV/optical extinction. I will present the model and show its impact on a range of Galactic sources including neutron stars and black holes.

  11. Avoiding Extinction in a Managed Single Species Population Model by Means of Anticipative Control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burke, Mark E.

    2006-06-01

    Population models with a high intrinsic growth rate that are subject to an Allee effect are known to exhibit chaotic transients which end in a population collapse and consequent extinction. In a managed environment, it might be possible to anticipate this event and affect the outcome by a carefully designed strategy. In this paper, the dynamics of a managed single species are modelled using an Anticipatory System and possible control strategies resulting from this are analysed and evaluated.

  12. Cognitive Enhancers for Facilitating Drug Cue Extinction: Insights from Animal Models

    PubMed Central

    Nic Dhonnchadha, Bríd Áine; Kantak, Kathleen M.

    2011-01-01

    Given the success of cue exposure (extinction) therapy combined with a cognitive enhancer for reducing anxiety, it is anticipated that this approach will prove more efficacious than exposure therapy alone in preventing relapse in individuals with substance use disorders. Several factors may undermine the efficacy of exposure therapy for substance use disorders, but we suspect that neurocognitive impairments associated with chronic drug use are an important contributing factor. Numerous insights on these issues are gained from research using animal models of addiction. In this review, the relationship between brain sites whose learning, memory and executive functions are impaired by chronic drug use and brain sites that are important for effective drug cue extinction learning is explored first. This is followed by an overview of animal research showing improved treatment outcome for drug addiction (e.g. alcohol, amphetamine, cocaine, heroin) when explicit extinction training is conducted in combination with acute dosing of a cognitive-enhancing drug. The mechanism by which cognitive enhancers are thought to exert their benefits is by facilitating consolidation of drug cue extinction memory after activation of glutamatergic receptors. Based on the encouraging work in animals, factors that may be important for the treatment of drug addiction are considered. PMID:21295059

  13. Cognitive enhancers for facilitating drug cue extinction: insights from animal models.

    PubMed

    Nic Dhonnchadha, Bríd Áine; Kantak, Kathleen M

    2011-08-01

    Given the success of cue exposure (extinction) therapy combined with a cognitive enhancer for reducing anxiety, it is anticipated that this approach will prove more efficacious than exposure therapy alone in preventing relapse in individuals with substance use disorders. Several factors may undermine the efficacy of exposure therapy for substance use disorders, but we suspect that neurocognitive impairments associated with chronic drug use are an important contributing factor. Numerous insights on these issues are gained from research using animal models of addiction. In this review, the relationship between brain sites whose learning, memory and executive functions are impaired by chronic drug use and brain sites that are important for effective drug cue extinction learning is explored first. This is followed by an overview of animal research showing improved treatment outcome for drug addiction (e.g. alcohol, amphetamine, cocaine, heroin) when explicit extinction training is conducted in combination with acute dosing of a cognitive-enhancing drug. The mechanism by which cognitive enhancers are thought to exert their benefits is by facilitating consolidation of drug cue extinction memory after activation of glutamatergic receptors. Based on the encouraging work in animals, factors that may be important for the treatment of drug addiction are considered. PMID:21295059

  14. Microphysical Modeling and POAM III Observations of Aerosol Extinction in the 1998-2003 Antarctic Stratosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benson, C. M.; Drdla, K.; Nedoluha, G. E.; Shettle, E. P.; Alfred, J.; Hoppel, K. W.

    2005-12-01

    The Integrated Microphysics and Chemistry on Trajectories (IMPACT) model is used to study Polar stratospheric cloud formation and evolution in the Southern Polar vortex during the 1998-2003 winters. The model is applied to individual air parcels which are advected through the vortex on UKMO wind and temperature fields. The parcel temperature and pressure histories are used by IMPACT to calculate the formation and sedimentation of ice, NAT, SAT, and STS aerosols. Model results are validated by the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III solar occultation instrument. Comparisons of POAM data to the model results help to constrain the microphysical parameters influencing aerosol formation and growth. Measurements of the water vapor mixing ratio are of limited use in clarifying the model microphysics; however, POAM measurements of aerosol extinction prove to be valuable in differentiating model runs. Specifically, the relationship of aerosol extinction to temperature arises from the different temperatures at which the various particle types form and grow. Comparisons of IMPACT calculations of this relationship to POAM measurements constrain the initial fraction of nuclei available for heterogeneous NAT freezing to 0.02% of all aerosols. Constraints are also placed on the ice accommodation coefficient and the NAT-ice lattice compatibility factor. However, these two parameters have similar effects on the extinction-temperature relationship, and thus a range of values are permissible for each.

  15. Uncertainties in dating constrain model choice for inferring extinction time from fossil records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saltré, Frédérik; Brook, Barry W.; Rodríguez-Rey, Marta; Cooper, Alan; Johnson, Christopher N.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.

    2015-03-01

    Accurate estimates of the timing of extinctions (θ) are critical for understanding the causes of major die-off events and for identifying evolutionary or environmental transitions. Yet many studies have demonstrated that sampling biases and underlying statistical assumptions affect the accuracy of model-based estimates of extinction times (θˆ), and the added uncertainty contributed by inherent (laboratory) dating errors has largely been neglected. Here we provide a general guide (model-selection key) for choosing from among eight alternative ';frequentist sampling' (i.e., non-Bayesian) methods, differentiated by their treatment of both the probability of record occurrence and uncertainties in record dates, the most appropriate for a given record. We first provide a methodological framework to characterize time series of dated records as a function of the number of records, the size of the interval between successive records, and laboratory dating errors. Using both simulated data and dated Australian megafauna remains, we then assess how the characteristic of a dataset's time series dictates model performance and the probability of misclassification (false extant vs. false extinct). Among the four classic frequentist methods providing highest model performance, Marshall's (1997) and McCarthy's (1998) methods have the highest model precision. However, high model performance did not prevent misclassification errors, such that the Gaussian-resampled inverse-weighted McInerny (GRIWM) approach is the only method providing both high model accuracy and no misclassification issues, because of its unique down-weighting interval procedure and its ability to account for uncertainties in record dates. Applying the guideline to three time series of extinct Australian species, we recommend using Marshall's, McCarthy's and/or GRIWM methods to infer θ of both Thylacinus sp. and Genyornis sp., because each dataset is characterized by many sightings and a low variance of the

  16. A discrete Markov metapopulation model for persistence and extinction of species.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Colin J; Shtilerman, Elad; Stone, Lewi

    2016-09-01

    A simple discrete generation Markov metapopulation model is formulated for studying the persistence and extinction dynamics of a species in a given region which is divided into a large number of sites or patches. Assuming a linear site occupancy probability from one generation to the next we obtain exact expressions for the time evolution of the expected number of occupied sites and the mean-time to extinction (MTE). Under quite general conditions we show that the MTE, to leading order, is proportional to the logarithm of the initial number of occupied sites and in precise agreement with similar expressions for continuous time-dependent stochastic models. Our key contribution is a novel application of generating function techniques and simple asymptotic methods to obtain a second order asymptotic expression for the MTE which is extremely accurate over the entire range of model parameter values. PMID:27302909

  17. The evolution and extinction of the ichthyosaurs from the perspective of quantitative ecospace modelling

    PubMed Central

    Dick, Daniel G.; Maxwell, Erin E.

    2015-01-01

    The role of niche specialization and narrowing in the evolution and extinction of the ichthyosaurs has been widely discussed in the literature. However, previous studies have concentrated on a qualitative discussion of these variables only. Here, we use the recently developed approach of quantitative ecospace modelling to provide a high-resolution quantitative examination of the changes in dietary and ecological niche experienced by the ichthyosaurs throughout their evolution in the Mesozoic. In particular, we demonstrate that despite recent discoveries increasing our understanding of taxonomic diversity among the ichthyosaurs in the Cretaceous, when viewed from the perspective of ecospace modelling, a clear trend of ecological contraction is visible as early as the Middle Jurassic. We suggest that this ecospace redundancy, if carried through to the Late Cretaceous, could have contributed to the extinction of the ichthyosaurs. Additionally, our results suggest a novel model to explain ecospace change, termed the ‘migration model’. PMID:26156130

  18. Chronologic model and transgressive-regressive signatures in the late neocene siliciclastic foundation (long key formation) of the Florida keys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guertin, L.A.; McNeill, D.F.

    1999-01-01

    Recent drilling of continuous cores in southernmost Florida has documented a thick unit of upper Neogene siliciclastics subjacent to surficial shallow-water Quaternary carbonates exposed on islands of the Florida Keys. The siliciclastics comprise the Long Key Formation and were identified in two cores collected from the middle and upper Florida Keys. Achronologic model based on new planktic foraminiferal biochronology and strontium-isotope chronology suggests the timing of siliddastic deposition and provides a basis for regional correlation. The chronologic model, supplemented by vertical trends in quartz grain size, pattern of planktic menardiiform coiling direction, and paleoenvironmental interpretations of benthic foraminiferal assemblages, shows that the Long Key Formation contains three intervals (I-III) of varying thickness, grain-size composition, and paleo-water depth. Interval I is uppermost Miocene. The quartz grains in Interval I fine upward from basal very coarse sand to fine and very fine sand. Benthic foraminifera indicate an upward shift from an outershelf to inner-shelf depositional environment. Interval II, deposited during the late early to early late Pliocene, contains reworked upper Miocene siliciclastics and faunas. In the upper Keys, quartz grains in Interval II range from very coarse sand that fines upward to very fine sand and then coarsens to very coarse and medium sand. In situ benthic faunas indicate an upward shift from outer-shelf to inner-shelf deposition. In the middle Keys, Interval II is different, with the quartz grains ranging primarily from medium to very fine sand. In situ benthic taxa indicate deposition on an inner shelf. In both the middle and upper Keys, the upper Pliocene siliciclastics of Interval III contain quartz grains ranging from very coarse to very fine sands that were deposited on an inner shelf. A sequence boundary between Interval I and Interval II is suggested by: an abrupt shift in the strontium

  19. Chronological hypoplasia: aesthetic management

    PubMed Central

    Jayam, Cheranjeevi; Bandlapalli, Anila; Patel, Nikunj; Choudhary, Rama Shankar Kashinath

    2014-01-01

    Enamel hypoplasia is defined as a break in the continuity of enamel with a reduction in the layers leading to depressions or grooves. Chronological hypoplasia is differentiated from other forms of hypoplasia due to its characteristic presentation (multiple, symmetrical, chronological pattern). Chronological hypoplasias are seen at the time tooth erupts into the oral cavity leading to several problems like aesthetic problems, tooth sensitivity, caries and early pulpal involvement. Prevention of interaction of aetiological factors is not possible because multiple factors are required for enamel synthesis. This paper highlights how to diagnose, intercept and treat chronological hypoplasias. It also mentions reasons for treating a case and different modalities available. PMID:24907208

  20. Value learning and arousal in the extinction of probabilistic rewards: the role of dopamine in a modified temporal difference model.

    PubMed

    Song, Minryung R; Fellous, Jean-Marc

    2014-01-01

    Because most rewarding events are probabilistic and changing, the extinction of probabilistic rewards is important for survival. It has been proposed that the extinction of probabilistic rewards depends on arousal and the amount of learning of reward values. Midbrain dopamine neurons were suggested to play a role in both arousal and learning reward values. Despite extensive research on modeling dopaminergic activity in reward learning (e.g. temporal difference models), few studies have been done on modeling its role in arousal. Although temporal difference models capture key characteristics of dopaminergic activity during the extinction of deterministic rewards, they have been less successful at simulating the extinction of probabilistic rewards. By adding an arousal signal to a temporal difference model, we were able to simulate the extinction of probabilistic rewards and its dependence on the amount of learning. Our simulations propose that arousal allows the probability of reward to have lasting effects on the updating of reward value, which slows the extinction of low probability rewards. Using this model, we predicted that, by signaling the prediction error, dopamine determines the learned reward value that has to be extinguished during extinction and participates in regulating the size of the arousal signal that controls the learning rate. These predictions were supported by pharmacological experiments in rats. PMID:24586823

  1. On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys.

    PubMed

    Dorazio, Robert M

    2007-11-01

    In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. PMID:18051646

  2. Extinction properties of single-walled carbon nanotubes: Two-fluid model

    SciTech Connect

    Moradi, Afshin

    2014-03-15

    The extinction spectra of a single-walled carbon nanotube are investigated, within the framework of the vector wave function method in conjunction with the hydrodynamic model. Both polarizations of the incident plane wave (TE and TM with respect to the x-z plane) are treated. Electronic excitations on the nanotube surface are modeled by an infinitesimally thin layer of a two-dimensional electron gas represented by two interacting fluids, which takes into account the different nature of the σ and π electrons. Numerical results show that strong interaction between the fluids gives rise to the splitting of the extinction spectra into two peaks in quantitative agreement with the π and σ + π plasmon energies.

  3. On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, R.M.

    2007-01-01

    In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

  4. Fossil biogeography: a new model to infer dispersal, extinction and sampling from palaeontological data.

    PubMed

    Silvestro, Daniele; Zizka, Alexander; Bacon, Christine D; Cascales-Miñana, Borja; Salamin, Nicolas; Antonelli, Alexandre

    2016-04-01

    Methods in historical biogeography have revolutionized our ability to infer the evolution of ancestral geographical ranges from phylogenies of extant taxa, the rates of dispersals, and biotic connectivity among areas. However, extant taxa are likely to provide limited and potentially biased information about past biogeographic processes, due to extinction, asymmetrical dispersals and variable connectivity among areas. Fossil data hold considerable information about past distribution of lineages, but suffer from largely incomplete sampling. Here we present a new dispersal-extinction-sampling (DES) model, which estimates biogeographic parameters using fossil occurrences instead of phylogenetic trees. The model estimates dispersal and extinction rates while explicitly accounting for the incompleteness of the fossil record. Rates can vary between areas and through time, thus providing the opportunity to assess complex scenarios of biogeographic evolution. We implement the DES model in a Bayesian framework and demonstrate through simulations that it can accurately infer all the relevant parameters. We demonstrate the use of our model by analysing the Cenozoic fossil record of land plants and inferring dispersal and extinction rates across Eurasia and North America. Our results show that biogeographic range evolution is not a time-homogeneous process, as assumed in most phylogenetic analyses, but varies through time and between areas. In our empirical assessment, this is shown by the striking predominance of plant dispersals from Eurasia into North America during the Eocene climatic cooling, followed by a shift in the opposite direction, and finally, a balance in biotic interchange since the middle Miocene. We conclude by discussing the potential of fossil-based analyses to test biogeographic hypotheses and improve phylogenetic methods in historical biogeography. PMID:26977065

  5. Do tree ring chronologies have missing rings that distort volcanic cooling signal?: Fixing tree ring chronologies yields closer agreement with models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2013-09-01

    Climate models generally show that when a massive volcano erupts, scattering reflective aerosols across the globe, the planet's temperature declines for up to a few years. However, when researchers look at reconstructed temperature records built on annual tree ring measurements, this volcanic cooling often appeared much weaker than expected or was nonexistent. In a new study reanalyzing regional tree ring growth records, Mann et al. provide a possible explanation for the absence of the cooling effect.

  6. Notes on the Statistical Power of the Binary State Speciation and Extinction (BiSSE) Model

    PubMed Central

    Gamisch, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    The Binary State Speciation and Extinction (BiSSE) method is one of the most popular tools for investigating the rates of diversification and character evolution. Yet, based on previous simulation studies, it is commonly held that the BiSSE method requires phylogenetic trees of fairly large sample sizes (>300 taxa) in order to distinguish between the different models of speciation, extinction, or transition rate asymmetry. Here, the power of the BiSSE method is reevaluated by simulating trees of both small and large sample sizes (30, 60, 90, and 300 taxa) under various asymmetry models and root state assumptions. Results show that the power of the BiSSE method can be much higher, also in trees of small sample size, for detecting differences in speciation rate asymmetry than anticipated earlier. This, however, is not a consequence of any conceptual or mathematical flaw in the method per se but rather of assumptions about the character state at the root of the simulated trees and thus the underlying macroevolutionary model, which led to biased results and conclusions in earlier power assessments. As such, these earlier simulation studies used to determine the power of BiSSE were not incorrect but biased, leading to an overestimation of type-II statistical error for detecting differences in speciation rate but not for extinction and transition rates. PMID:27486297

  7. How partial reinforcement of food cues affects the extinction and reacquisition of appetitive responses. A new model for dieting success?

    PubMed

    van den Akker, Karolien; Havermans, Remco C; Bouton, Mark E; Jansen, Anita

    2014-10-01

    Animals and humans can easily learn to associate an initially neutral cue with food intake through classical conditioning, but extinction of learned appetitive responses can be more difficult. Intermittent or partial reinforcement of food cues causes especially persistent behaviour in animals: after exposure to such learning schedules, the decline in responding that occurs during extinction is slow. After extinction, increases in responding with renewed reinforcement of food cues (reacquisition) might be less rapid after acquisition with partial reinforcement. In humans, it may be that the eating behaviour of some individuals resembles partial reinforcement schedules to a greater extent, possibly affecting dieting success by interacting with extinction and reacquisition. Furthermore, impulsivity has been associated with less successful dieting, and this association might be explained by impulsivity affecting the learning and extinction of appetitive responses. In the present two studies, the effects of different reinforcement schedules and impulsivity on the acquisition, extinction, and reacquisition of appetitive responses were investigated in a conditioning paradigm involving food rewards in healthy humans. Overall, the results indicate both partial reinforcement schedules and, possibly, impulsivity to be associated with worse extinction performance. A new model of dieting success is proposed: learning histories and, perhaps, certain personality traits (impulsivity) can interfere with the extinction and reacquisition of appetitive responses to food cues and they may be causally related to unsuccessful dieting. PMID:24973507

  8. Modeling Effects of Local Extinctions on Culture Change and Diversity in the Paleolithic

    PubMed Central

    Premo, L. S.; Kuhn, Steven L.

    2010-01-01

    The persistence of early stone tool technologies has puzzled archaeologists for decades. Cognitively based explanations, which presume either lack of ability to innovate or extreme conformism, do not account for the totality of the empirical patterns. Following recent research, this study explores the effects of demographic factors on rates of culture change and diversification. We investigate whether the appearance of stability in early Paleolithic technologies could result from frequent extinctions of local subpopulations within a persistent metapopulation. A spatially explicit agent-based model was constructed to test the influence of local extinction rate on three general cultural patterns that archaeologists might observe in the material record: total diversity, differentiation among spatially defined groups, and the rate of cumulative change. The model shows that diversity, differentiation, and the rate of cumulative cultural change would be strongly affected by local extinction rates, in some cases mimicking the results of conformist cultural transmission. The results have implications for understanding spatial and temporal patterning in ancient material culture. PMID:21179418

  9. Stone tools and foraging in northern Madagascar challenge Holocene extinction models

    PubMed Central

    Dewar, Robert E.; Radimilahy, Chantal; Wright, Henry T.; Jacobs, Zenobia; Kelly, Gwendolyn O.; Berna, Francesco

    2013-01-01

    Past research on Madagascar indicates that village communities were established about AD 500 by people of both Indonesian and East African heritage. Evidence of earlier visits is scattered and contentious. Recent archaeological excavations in northern Madagascar provide evidence of occupational sites with microlithic stone technologies related to foraging for forest and coastal resources. A forager occupation of one site dates to earlier than 2000 B.C., doubling the length of Madagascar’s known occupational history, and thus the time during which people exploited Madagascar’s environments. We detail stratigraphy, chronology, and artifacts from two rock shelters. Ambohiposa near Iharana (Vohémar) on the northeast coast, yielded a stratified assemblage with small flakes, microblades, and retouched crescentic and trapezoidal tools, probably projectile elements, made on cherts and obsidian, some brought more that 200 km. 14C dates are contemporary with the earliest villages. No food remains are preserved. Lakaton’i Anja near Antsiranana in the north yielded several stratified assemblages. The latest assemblage is well dated to A.D. 1050–1350, by 14C and optically stimulated luminescence dating and pottery imported from the Near East and China. Below is a series of stratified assemblages similar to Ambohiposa. 14C and optically stimulated luminescence dates indicate occupation from at least 2000 B.C. Faunal remains indicate a foraging pattern. Our evidence shows that foragers with a microlithic technology were active in Madagascar long before the arrival of farmers and herders and before many Late Holocene faunal extinctions. The differing effects of historically distinct economies must be identified and understood to reconstruct Holocene histories of human environmental impact. PMID:23858456

  10. Stone tools and foraging in northern Madagascar challenge Holocene extinction models.

    PubMed

    Dewar, Robert E; Radimilahy, Chantal; Wright, Henry T; Jacobs, Zenobia; Kelly, Gwendolyn O; Berna, Francesco

    2013-07-30

    Past research on Madagascar indicates that village communities were established about AD 500 by people of both Indonesian and East African heritage. Evidence of earlier visits is scattered and contentious. Recent archaeological excavations in northern Madagascar provide evidence of occupational sites with microlithic stone technologies related to foraging for forest and coastal resources. A forager occupation of one site dates to earlier than 2000 B.C., doubling the length of Madagascar's known occupational history, and thus the time during which people exploited Madagascar's environments. We detail stratigraphy, chronology, and artifacts from two rock shelters. Ambohiposa near Iharana (Vohémar) on the northeast coast, yielded a stratified assemblage with small flakes, microblades, and retouched crescentic and trapezoidal tools, probably projectile elements, made on cherts and obsidian, some brought more that 200 km. (14)C dates are contemporary with the earliest villages. No food remains are preserved. Lakaton'i Anja near Antsiranana in the north yielded several stratified assemblages. The latest assemblage is well dated to A.D. 1050-1350, by (14)C and optically stimulated luminescence dating and pottery imported from the Near East and China. Below is a series of stratified assemblages similar to Ambohiposa. (14)C and optically stimulated luminescence dates indicate occupation from at least 2000 B.C. Faunal remains indicate a foraging pattern. Our evidence shows that foragers with a microlithic technology were active in Madagascar long before the arrival of farmers and herders and before many Late Holocene faunal extinctions. The differing effects of historically distinct economies must be identified and understood to reconstruct Holocene histories of human environmental impact. PMID:23858456

  11. Constraints on bed scale fracture chronology with a FEM mechanical model of folding: The case of Split Mountain (Utah, USA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sassi, W.; Guiton, M. L. E.; Leroy, Y. M.; Daniel, J.-M.; Callot, J.-P.

    2012-11-01

    A technique is presented for improving the structural analysis of natural fractures development in large scale fold structures. A 3D restoration of a fold provides the external displacement loading conditions to solve, by the finite element method, the forward mechanical problem of an idealized rock material with a stress-strain relationship based on the activation of pervasive fracture sets. In this elasto-plasticity constitutive law, any activated fracture set contributes to the total plastic strain by either an opening or a sliding mode of rock failure. Inherited versus syn-folding fracture sets development can be studied using this mechanical model. The workflow of this methodology was applied to the Weber sandstone formation deformed by forced folding at Split Mountain Anticline, Utah for which the different fracture sets were created and developed successively during the Sevier and the syn-folding Laramide orogenic phases. The field observations at the top stratigraphic surface of the Weber sandstone lead to classify the fracture sets into a pre-fold WNW-ESE fracture set, and a NE-SW fracture set post-dating the former. The development and relative chronology of the fracture sets are discussed based on the geomechanical modeling results. Starting with a 3D restoration of the Split Mountain Anticline, three fold-fracture development models were generated, alternately assuming that the WNW-ESE fracture set is either present or absent prior to folding process. Depending on the initial fracture configuration, the calculated fracture patterns are markedly different, showing that assuming a WNW-ESE joint set to predate the fold best correlates with field observations. This study is a first step addressing the complex problem of identification of fold-related fracturing events using an elementary concept of rock mechanics. When tight to complementary field observations, including petrography, diagenesis and burial history, the approach can be used to better

  12. The basic reproduction number and the probability of extinction for a dynamic epidemic model.

    PubMed

    Neal, Peter

    2012-03-01

    We consider the spread of an epidemic through a population divided into n sub-populations, in which individuals move between populations according to a Markov transition matrix Σ and infectives can only make infectious contacts with members of their current population. Expressions for the basic reproduction number, R₀, and the probability of extinction of the epidemic are derived. It is shown that in contrast to contact distribution models, the distribution of the infectious period effects both the basic reproduction number and the probability of extinction of the epidemic in the limit as the total population size N→∞. The interactions between the infectious period distribution and the transition matrix Σ mean that it is not possible to draw general conclusions about the effects on R₀ and the probability of extinction. However, it is shown that for n=2, the basic reproduction number, R₀, is maximised by a constant length infectious period and is decreasing in ς, the speed of movement between the two populations. PMID:22269870

  13. On extinction time of a generalized endemic chain-binomial model.

    PubMed

    Aydogmus, Ozgur

    2016-09-01

    We considered a chain-binomial epidemic model not conferring immunity after infection. Mean field dynamics of the model has been analyzed and conditions for the existence of a stable endemic equilibrium are determined. The behavior of the chain-binomial process is probabilistically linked to the mean field equation. As a result of this link, we were able to show that the mean extinction time of the epidemic increases at least exponentially as the population size grows. We also present simulation results for the process to validate our analytical findings. PMID:27404209

  14. Soluble Model of Evolution and Extinction Dynamics in a Rugged Fitness Landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibani, Paolo

    1997-08-01

    We consider a continuum version of a previously introduced and numerically studied model of macroevolution [P. Sibani, M. R. Schimdt, and P. Alstrøm, Phys. Rev. Lett. 75, 2055 (1995)] in which agents evolve by an optimization process in a rugged fitness landscape and die due to their competitive interactions. We first formulate dynamical equations for the fitness distribution and the survival probability. Secondly, we analytically derive the t-2 law which characterizes the lifetime distribution of biological genera. Thirdly, we discuss other dynamical properties of the model as the rate of extinction and conclude with a brief discussion.

  15. Age and dynamics of the Namib Sand Sea: A review of chronological evidence and possible landscape development models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stone, A. E. C.

    2013-06-01

    -derived material from the Orange River delta) the weight of evidence points towards the dominance of an Orange River source, with localised contribution from fluvially-derived escarpment material close to river courses. Despite the fact that it remains difficult to definitively distinguish between recent Orange River sediment and recycled TSS, because of a great mineralogical similarity, an Orange River source contemporaneous with the accumulation of the sand sea appears to be favoured. Models of landscape development rely on an understanding of the source region, and an Orange River source suggests growth and extension from south to north (a wind-displaced Orange Delta), rather than localised reworking of sediment from the TSS. One proposed model, developed for the southern part of the sand sea, divides accumulation into two distinct phases with different palaeoenvironmental conditions: large draas accumulating under enhanced Pleistocene trade winds and superimposed features on the eastern dune flanks formed by westerly winds moving material over the crest. However, the latter phase could equally be explained by a northerly migration of the superimposed features, and there is still too little in the way of chronological control to construct a coherent picture of dune accumulation and migration for the sand sea as a whole. There are also interesting insights from conceptualising dune bedform patterning in sand seas as a time-dependent, self-organising, complex system, rather than necessarily requiring changing palaeoenvironmental conditions for different scales of features, with some of this research referring directly to the Namib Sand Sea. Refining the details of the accumulation of the Namib Sand Sea requires both detailed site-specific studies and joined-up analysis.

  16. Response disinhibition may be explained as an extinction deficit in an animal model of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

    PubMed

    Johansen, Espen Borgå; Sagvolden, Terje

    2004-03-01

    Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a disorder affecting between 2 and 12% of grade-school children disturbing social, academic, and occupational functioning. Problems related to social adjustment and functioning and/or psychiatric problems will exist in 50-70% of adolescents and young adults diagnosed with ADHD as children. It has been suggested that altered reinforcement and extinction processes may cause the symptoms of ADHD. The present study investigated extinction processes in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR), possibly the best-validated animal model of ADHD. Extinction was tested after either a variable interval (VI) or a fixed interval (FI) schedule of reinforcement with and without the presence of a conditioned reinforcer (light in the water cubicle). The results indicate a slower extinction process in the SHR compared to the normal controls, especially during the initial transition from scheduled reinforcement to extinction. Also, more responses were retained in the SHR during the later part of extinction. The extinction deficit in the SHR may be linked to reinforcer unpredictability and the presence of conditioned reinforcers, and may explain response disinhibition seen in children with ADHD. PMID:15129781

  17. Extinction of drug- and withdrawal-paired cues in animal models: relevance to the treatment of addiction.

    PubMed

    Myers, Karyn M; Carlezon, William A

    2010-11-01

    Conditioned drug craving and withdrawal elicited by cues paired with drug use or acute withdrawal are among the many factors contributing to compulsive drug taking. Understanding how to stop these cues from having these effects is a major goal of addiction research. Extinction is a form of learning in which associations between cues and the events they predict are weakened by exposure to the cues in the absence of those events. Evidence from animal models suggests that conditioned responses to drug cues can be extinguished, although the degree to which this occurs in humans is controversial. Investigations into the neurobiological substrates of extinction of conditioned drug craving and withdrawal may facilitate the successful use of drug cue extinction within clinical contexts. While this work is still in the early stages, there are indications that extinction of drug- and withdrawal-paired cues shares neural mechanisms with extinction of conditioned fear. Using the fear extinction literature as a template, it is possible to organize the observations on drug cue extinction into a cohesive framework. PMID:20109490

  18. Could Ocean Acidification Have Caused the End-Permian Mass Extinction? - An Earth System Model Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, Y.; Kump, L. R.; Ridgwell, A.

    2013-12-01

    The end-Permian is associated with a 3-5‰ carbon isotope excursion in the ocean-atmosphere system within 20 kyr, most likely explained by a rapid and large amount of greenhouse gas emission. This has led to the hypothesis that it was ocean acidification that was the primary driver for the end-Permian marine mass extinction event. However, the total carbon emissions and degree of ocean acidification associated with the carbon isotope excursion are currently poorly constrained. To address this, we conduct a series of experiments varying initial and boundary conditions using an Earth system model (GENIE: http://cgenie.seao2.org/). We then invert the model by forcing the atmosphere δ13C to track our prescribed carbon isotopes on a reliable time scale derived from the recently published Meishan section in South China at each time step. The carbon isotope records are statistically treated to remove the noise that could result in unrealistic fluctuations in the derivatives of δ13C. The models are run for ~100 kyr from the initial sharp drop in δ13C (~60 kyr prior to the onset of the extinction event) to its initial recovery phase (~30 kyr after the onset of the extinction event). We test four isotopically distinctive sources, including mantle volcanic source (-9‰), organic matter (-25‰), thermogenic methane (-40‰) and biogenic methane (-60‰) and derive the corresponding carbon emissions consistent with the observed isotopic excursion for each. We also test the importance of the lack of pelagic carbonate production during the late Paleozoic and run the model configured both as a 'Neritan' (shallow carbonate production only) and 'Cretan' (both shallow benthic and open ocean pelagic) ocean scenarios.

  19. Fossil biogeography: a new model to infer dispersal, extinction and sampling from palaeontological data

    PubMed Central

    Zizka, Alexander; Bacon, Christine D.; Cascales-Miñana, Borja; Salamin, Nicolas; Antonelli, Alexandre

    2016-01-01

    Methods in historical biogeography have revolutionized our ability to infer the evolution of ancestral geographical ranges from phylogenies of extant taxa, the rates of dispersals, and biotic connectivity among areas. However, extant taxa are likely to provide limited and potentially biased information about past biogeographic processes, due to extinction, asymmetrical dispersals and variable connectivity among areas. Fossil data hold considerable information about past distribution of lineages, but suffer from largely incomplete sampling. Here we present a new dispersal–extinction–sampling (DES) model, which estimates biogeographic parameters using fossil occurrences instead of phylogenetic trees. The model estimates dispersal and extinction rates while explicitly accounting for the incompleteness of the fossil record. Rates can vary between areas and through time, thus providing the opportunity to assess complex scenarios of biogeographic evolution. We implement the DES model in a Bayesian framework and demonstrate through simulations that it can accurately infer all the relevant parameters. We demonstrate the use of our model by analysing the Cenozoic fossil record of land plants and inferring dispersal and extinction rates across Eurasia and North America. Our results show that biogeographic range evolution is not a time-homogeneous process, as assumed in most phylogenetic analyses, but varies through time and between areas. In our empirical assessment, this is shown by the striking predominance of plant dispersals from Eurasia into North America during the Eocene climatic cooling, followed by a shift in the opposite direction, and finally, a balance in biotic interchange since the middle Miocene. We conclude by discussing the potential of fossil-based analyses to test biogeographic hypotheses and improve phylogenetic methods in historical biogeography. PMID:26977065

  20. A review and synthesis of late Pleistocene extinction modeling: progress delayed by mismatches between ecological realism, interpretation, and methodological transparency.

    PubMed

    Yule, Jeffrey V; Fournier, Robert J; Jensen, Christopher X J; Yang, Jinyan

    2014-06-01

    Late Pleistocene extinctions occurred globally over a period of about 50,000 years, primarily affecting mammals of > or = 44 kg body mass (i.e., megafauna) first in Australia, continuing in Eurasia and, finally, in the Americas. Polarized debate about the cause(s) of the extinctions centers on the role of climate change and anthropogenic factors (especially hunting). Since the late 1960s, investigators have developed mathematical models to simulate the ecological interactions that might have contributed to the extinctions. Here, we provide an overview of the various methodologies used and conclusions reached in the modeling literature, addressing both the strengths and weaknesses of modeling as an explanatory tool. Although late Pleistocene extinction models now provide a solid foundation for viable future work, we conclude, first, that single models offer less compelling support for their respective explanatory hypotheses than many realize; second, that disparities in methodology (both in terms of model parameterization and design) prevent meaningful comparison between models and, more generally, progress from model to model in increasing our understanding of these extinctions; and third, that recent models have been presented and possibly developed without sufficient regard for the transparency of design that facilitates scientific progress. PMID:24984323

  1. New Interstellar Dust Models Consistent with Interstellar Extinction, Emission and Abundances Constraints

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zubko, V.; Dwek, E.; Arendt, R. G.; Oegerle, William (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    We present new interstellar dust models that are consistent with both, the FUV to near-IR extinction and infrared (IR) emission measurements from the diffuse interstellar medium. The models are characterized by different dust compositions and abundances. The problem we solve consists of determining the size distribution of the various dust components of the model. This problem is a typical ill-posed inversion problem which we solve using the regularization approach. We reproduce the Li Draine (2001, ApJ, 554, 778) results, however their model requires an excessive amount of interstellar silicon (48 ppM of hydrogen compared to the 36 ppM available for an ISM of solar composition) to be locked up in dust. We found that dust models consisting of PAHs, amorphous silicate, graphite, and composite grains made up from silicates, organic refractory, and water ice, provide an improved fit to the extinction and IR emission measurements, while still requiring a subsolar amount of silicon to be in the dust. This research was supported by NASA Astrophysical Theory Program NRA 99-OSS-01.

  2. Stochastic extinction of tumor cells due to synchronization effect through time periodic treatment in a tumor-immune interaction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aisu, Ryota; Horita, Takehiko

    The response to a time periodic treatment of the immunotherapy in a stochastic model of tumor-immune interaction is numerically investigated. Due to the effect of synchronization among the intrinsic oscillation and the treatment, an enhanced extinction of the tumor cells is observed. It suggests that compared with the static treatment, by controlling the period of the treatment, the time periodic treatment could be an effective way of treatment leading to tumor extinction.

  3. Extinction in periodic competitive stage-structured Lotka-Volterra model with the effects of toxic substances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Zhong; Chen, Fengde

    2009-09-01

    In this paper, we consider a periodic competitive stage-structured Lotka-Volterra model with the effects of toxic substances. It is shown that toxic substances play an important role in the extinction of species. We obtain a set of sufficient conditions which guarantee that one of the components is driven to extinction while the other is globally attractive. The numerical simulation of an example verifies our main results.

  4. On the inference of function from structure using biomechanical modelling and simulation of extinct organisms.

    PubMed

    Hutchinson, John R

    2012-02-23

    Biomechanical modelling and simulation techniques offer some hope for unravelling the complex inter-relationships of structure and function perhaps even for extinct organisms, but have their limitations owing to this complexity and the many unknown parameters for fossil taxa. Validation and sensitivity analysis are two indispensable approaches for quantifying the accuracy and reliability of such models or simulations. But there are other subtleties in biomechanical modelling that include investigator judgements about the level of simplicity versus complexity in model design or how uncertainty and subjectivity are dealt with. Furthermore, investigator attitudes toward models encompass a broad spectrum between extreme credulity and nihilism, influencing how modelling is conducted and perceived. Fundamentally, more data and more testing of methodology are required for the field to mature and build confidence in its inferences. PMID:21666064

  5. Bacterial colonization and extinction on marine aggregates: stochastic model of species presence and abundance

    PubMed Central

    Kramer, Andrew M; Lyons, M Maille; Dobbs, Fred C; Drake, John M

    2013-01-01

    Organic aggregates provide a favorable habitat for aquatic microbes, are efficiently filtered by shellfish, and may play a major role in the dynamics of aquatic pathogens. Quantifying this role requires understanding how pathogen abundance in the water and aggregate size interact to determine the presence and abundance of pathogen cells on individual aggregates. We build upon current understanding of the dynamics of bacteria and bacterial grazers on aggregates to develop a model for the dynamics of a bacterial pathogen species. The model accounts for the importance of stochasticity and the balance between colonization and extinction. Simulation results suggest that while colonization increases linearly with background density and aggregate size, extinction rates are expected to be nonlinear on small aggregates in a low background density of the pathogen. Under these conditions, we predict lower probabilities of pathogen presence and reduced abundance on aggregates compared with predictions based solely on colonization. These results suggest that the importance of aggregates to the dynamics of aquatic bacterial pathogens may be dependent on the interaction between aggregate size and background pathogen density, and that these interactions are strongly influenced by ecological interactions and pathogen traits. The model provides testable predictions and can be a useful tool for exploring how species-specific differences in pathogen traits may alter the effect of aggregates on disease transmission. PMID:24340173

  6. Does Litter Size Variation Affect Models of Terrestrial Carnivore Extinction Risk and Management?

    PubMed Central

    Devenish-Nelson, Eleanor S.; Stephens, Philip A.; Harris, Stephen; Soulsbury, Carl; Richards, Shane A.

    2013-01-01

    Background Individual variation in both survival and reproduction has the potential to influence extinction risk. Especially for rare or threatened species, reliable population models should adequately incorporate demographic uncertainty. Here, we focus on an important form of demographic stochasticity: variation in litter sizes. We use terrestrial carnivores as an example taxon, as they are frequently threatened or of economic importance. Since data on intraspecific litter size variation are often sparse, it is unclear what probability distribution should be used to describe the pattern of litter size variation for multiparous carnivores. Methodology/Principal Findings We used litter size data on 32 terrestrial carnivore species to test the fit of 12 probability distributions. The influence of these distributions on quasi-extinction probabilities and the probability of successful disease control was then examined for three canid species – the island fox Urocyon littoralis, the red fox Vulpes vulpes, and the African wild dog Lycaon pictus. Best fitting probability distributions differed among the carnivores examined. However, the discretised normal distribution provided the best fit for the majority of species, because variation among litter-sizes was often small. Importantly, however, the outcomes of demographic models were generally robust to the distribution used. Conclusion/Significance These results provide reassurance for those using demographic modelling for the management of less studied carnivores in which litter size variation is estimated using data from species with similar reproductive attributes. PMID:23469140

  7. A mathematical model for expected time to extinction of pathogenic bacteria through antibiotic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, M. K.; Nandi, S.; Roy, P. K.

    2016-04-01

    Application of antibiotics in human system to prevent bacterial diseases like Gastritis, Ulcers, Meningitis, Pneumonia and Gonorrhea are indispensable. Antibiotics saved innumerable lives and continue to be a strong support for therapeutic application against pathogenic bacteria. In human system, bacterial diseases occur when pathogenic bacteria gets into the body and begin to reproduce and crowd out healthy bacteria. In this process, immature bacteria releases enzyme which is essential for bacterial cell-wall biosynthesis. After complete formation of cell wall, immature bacteria are converted to mature or virulent bacteria which are harmful to us during bacterial infections. Use of antibiotics as drug inhibits the bacterial cell wall formation. After application of antibiotics within body, the released bacterial enzyme binds with antibiotic molecule instead of its functional site during the cell wall synthesis in a competitive inhibition approach. As a consequence, the bacterial cell-wall formation as well as maturation process of pathogenic bacteria is halted and the disease is cured with lysis of bacterial cells. With this idea, a mathematical model has been developed in the present research investigation to review the inhibition of biosynthesis of bacterial cell wall by the application of antibiotics as drug in the light of enzyme kinetics. This approach helps to estimate the expected time to extinction of the pathogenic bacteria. Our mathematical approach based on the enzyme kinetic model for finding out expected time to extinction contributes favorable results for understanding of disease dynamics. Analytical and numerical results based on simulated findings validate our mathematical model.

  8. High precision dating of mass extinction events: a combined zircon geochronology, apatite tephrochronology, and Bayesian age modelling approach of the Permian-Triassic boundary extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baresel, Björn; Bucher, Hugo; Brosse, Morgane; Bagherpour, Borhan; Schaltegger, Urs

    2016-04-01

    Chemical abrasion isotope dilution thermal ionization mass spectrometry (CA-ID-TIMS) U-Pb dating of single-zircon crystals is preferably applied to tephra beds intercalated in sedimentary sequences. By assuming that the zircon crystallization age closely approximate that of the volcanic eruption and ash deposition, U-Pb zircon geochronology is the preferred approach for dating mass extinction events (such as the Permian-Triassic boundary mass extinction) in the sedimentary record. As tephra from large volcanic eruptions is often transported over long distances, it additionally provide an invaluable tool for stratigraphic correlation across distant geologic sections. Therefore, the combination of high-precision zircon geochronology with apatite chemistry of the same tephra bed (so called apatite tephrochronology) provides a robust fingerprint of one particular volcanic eruption. In addition we provide coherent Bayesian model ages for the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) mass extinction, then compare it with PTB model ages at Meishan after Burgess et al. (2014). We will present new high-precision U-Pb zircon dates for a series of volcanic ash beds in deep- and shallow-marine Permian-Triassic sections in the Nanpanjiang Basin, South China. In addition, apatite crystals out of the same ash beds were analysed focusing on their halogen (F, Cl) and trace-element (e.g. Fe, Mg, REE) chemistry. We also show that Bayesian age models produce reproducible results from different geologic sections. On the basis of these data, including litho- and biostratigraphic correlations, we can precisely and accurately constrain the Permian-Triassic boundary in an equatorial marine setting, and correlate tephra beds over different sections and facies in the Nanpanjiang Basin independently from litho-, bio- or chemostratigraphic criteria. The results evidence that data produced in laboratories associated to the global EARTHTIME consortium can provide age information at the 0.05% level of 206

  9. Secondary extinctions of biodiversity.

    PubMed

    Brodie, Jedediah F; Aslan, Clare E; Rogers, Haldre S; Redford, Kent H; Maron, John L; Bronstein, Judith L; Groves, Craig R

    2014-12-01

    Extinctions beget further extinctions when species lose obligate mutualists, predators, prey, or hosts. Here, we develop a conceptual model of species and community attributes affecting secondary extinction likelihood, incorporating mechanisms that buffer organisms against partner loss. Specialized interactors, including 'cryptic specialists' with diverse but nonredundant partner assemblages, incur elevated risk. Risk is also higher for species that cannot either evolve new traits following partner loss or obtain novel partners in communities reorganizing under changing environmental conditions. Partner loss occurs alongside other anthropogenic impacts; multiple stressors can circumvent ecological buffers, enhancing secondary extinction risk. Stressors can also offset each other, reducing secondary extinction risk, a hitherto unappreciated phenomenon. This synthesis suggests improved conservation planning tactics and critical directions for research on secondary extinctions. PMID:25445878

  10. A model of the mechanisms of language extinction and revitalization strategies to save endangered languages.

    PubMed

    Fernando, Chrisantha; Valijärvi, Riitta-Liisa; Goldstein, Richard A

    2010-02-01

    Why and how have languages died out? We have devised a mathematical model to help us understand how languages go extinct. We use the model to ask whether language extinction can be prevented in the future and why it may have occurred in the past. A growing number of mathematical models of language dynamics have been developed to study the conditions for language coexistence and death, yet their phenomenological approach compromises their ability to influence language revitalization policy. In contrast, here we model the mechanisms underlying language competition and look at how these mechanisms are influenced by specific language revitalization interventions, namely, private interventions to raise the status of the language and thus promote language learning at home, public interventions to increase the use of the minority language, and explicit teaching of the minority language in schools. Our model reveals that it is possible to preserve a minority language but that continued long-term interventions will likely be necessary. We identify the parameters that determine which interventions work best under certain linguistic and societal circumstances. In this way the efficacy of interventions of various types can be identified and predicted. Although there are qualitative arguments for these parameter values (e.g., the responsiveness of children to learning a language as a function of the proportion of conversations heard in that language, the relative importance of conversations heard in the family and elsewhere, and the amplification of spoken to heard conversations of the high-status language because of the media), extensive quantitative data are lacking in this field. We propose a way to measure these parameters, allowing our model, as well as others models in the field, to be validated. PMID:20504171

  11. Validated Numerical Models for the Convective Extinction of Fuel Droplets (CEFD)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gogos, George; Bowen, Brent; Nickerson, Jocelyn S.

    2002-01-01

    The NASA Nebraska Space Grant (NSGC) & EPSCoR programs have continued their effort to support outstanding research endeavors by funding the Numerical Simulation of the Combustion of Fuel Droplets study at the University of Nebraska at Lincoln (UNL). This team of researchers has developed a transient numerical model to study the combustion of suspended and moving droplets. The engines that propel missiles, jets, and many other devices are dependent upon combustion. Therefore, data concerning the combustion of fuel droplets is of immediate relevance to aviation and aeronautical personnel, especially those involved in flight operations. The experiments being conducted by Dr. Gogos and Dr. Nayagam s research teams, allow investigators to gather data for comparison with theoretical predictions of burning rates, flame structures, and extinction conditions. The consequent improved fundamental understanding of droplet combustion may contribute to the clean and safe utilization of fossil fuels (Williams, Dryer, Haggard & Nayagam, 1997, f 2). The present state of knowledge on convective extinction of fuel droplets derives from experiments conducted under normal gravity conditions. However, any data obtained with suspended droplets under normal gravity are grossly affected by gravity. The need to obtain experimental data under microgravity conditions is therefore well justified and addresses one of the goals of NASA's Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) microgravity combustion experiment.

  12. Biomechanical modeling and sensitivity analysis of bipedal running ability. II. Extinct taxa.

    PubMed

    Hutchinson, John R

    2004-10-01

    Using an inverse dynamics biomechanical analysis that was previously validated for extant bipeds, I calculated the minimum amount of actively contracting hindlimb extensor muscle that would have been needed for rapid bipedal running in several extinct dinosaur taxa. I analyzed models of nine theropod dinosaurs (including birds) covering over five orders of magnitude in size. My results uphold previous findings that large theropods such as Tyrannosaurus could not run very quickly, whereas smaller theropods (including some extinct birds) were adept runners. Furthermore, my results strengthen the contention that many nonavian theropods, especially larger individuals, used fairly upright limb orientations, which would have reduced required muscular force, and hence muscle mass. Additional sensitivity analysis of muscle fascicle lengths, moment arms, and limb orientation supports these conclusions and points out directions for future research on the musculoskeletal limits on running ability. Although ankle extensor muscle support is shown to have been important for all taxa, the ability of hip extensor muscles to support the body appears to be a crucial limit for running capacity in larger taxa. I discuss what speeds were possible for different theropod dinosaurs, and how running ability evolved in an inverse relationship to body size in archosaurs. PMID:15352202

  13. Skylab: A chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Newkirk, R. W.; Ertel, I. D.; Brooks, C. G.

    1977-01-01

    The Skylab Program was specifically designed to conduct a series of experiments from beyond the earth's atmosphere. Since the number and types of experiments conducted during the operational phase of Skylab were constantly changing, rather than encumber the body of the chronology with these changes, a lengthy appendix on experiments is included in this document. This appendix identifies the principle investigators and coinvestigators; gives the types, numbers, and descriptions of the experiments; explains the purpose of the various experiments; and, where possible, gives the results or findings of the experiments. The body of the Skylab chronology is divided into three parts; early space station activities, Apollo applications, and Skylab development and operations.

  14. Impact winter and the Cretaceous/Tertiary extinctions: Results of a Chicxulub asteroid impact model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pope, Kevin O.; Baines, Kevin H.; Ocampo, Adriana C.; Ivanov, Boris A.

    1994-01-01

    The Chicxulub impact crater in Mexico is the site of the impact purported to have caused mass extinctions at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. 2-D hydrocode modeling of the impact, coupled with studies of the impact site geology, indiate that between 0.4 and 7.0 x 10(exp 17) g of sulfur were vaporized by the impact into anhydrite target rocks. A small portion of the sulfur was released as SO3 or SO4, which converted rapidly into H2SO4 aerosol and fell as acid rain. A radiative transfer model, coupled with a model of coagulation indicates that the aerosol prolonged the initial blackout period caused by impact dust only if the aerosol contained impurities. A larger portion of sulfur was released as SO2, which converted to aerosol slowly, due to the rate-limiting oxidation of SO2. Our radiative transfer calculations, combined with rates of acid production, coagulation, and diffusion indicate that solar transmission was reduced to 10-20% of normal for a period of 8-13 yr. This reduction produced a climate forcing (cooling) of -300 W/sq.m, which far exceeded the +8 W/sq.m greenhouse warming, caused by the CO2 released through the vaporization of carbonates, and therefore produced a decade of freezing and near-freezing temperatures. Several decades of moderate warming followed the decade of severe cooling due to the long residence time of CO2. The prolonged impact winter may have been a major cause of the K/T extinctions.

  15. Stochastic modeling of unsteady extinction in turbulent non-premixed combustion

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Lackmann, T.; Hewson, J. C.; Knaus, R. C.; Kerstein, A. R.; Oevermann, M.

    2016-07-19

    Turbulent fluctuations of the scalar dissipation rate have a major impact on extinction in non-premixed combustion. Recently, an unsteady extinction criterion has been developed (Hewson, 2013) that predicts extinction dependent on the duration and the magnitude of dissipation rate fluctuations exceeding a critical quenching value; this quantity is referred to as the dissipation impulse. Furthermore, the magnitude of the dissipation impulse corresponding to unsteady extinction is related to the difficulty with which a flamelet is exintguished, based on the steady-state S-curve.

  16. A model for the Holocene extinction of the mammal megafauna in Ecuador

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ficcarelli, G.; Coltorti, M.; Moreno-Espinosa, M.; Pieruccini, P. L.; Rook, L.; Torre, D.

    2003-03-01

    This paper presents the results of multidisciplinary research in the Ecuadorian coastal regions, with particular emphasis on the Santa Elena Peninsula. The new evidence, together with previous data gathered on the Ecuadorian cordillera during the last 12 years, allows us to formulate a model that accounts for most of the mammal megafauna extinction at the Pleistocene/Holocene transition. After the illustration of geomorphological and paleontological evidences of the area of the Santa Elena Peninsula (and other sites), and of a summary of the paleoclimatic data, the main results and conclusions of this work are: (1) Late Pleistocene mammal assemblages survived in the Ecuadorian coast until the Early Holocene sea level rise; (2) Prior to the extinction of most of the megafauna elements (mastodons, ground sloths, equids, sabre-tooth felids), the mammal communities at Santa Elena Peninsula comprise elements with differing habitat requirements, attesting conditions of high biological pressure; (3) At the El Cautivo site (Santa Elena Peninsula), we have discovered Holocene sediments containing the first known occurrences in Ecuador of lithic artifacts that are associated with mammal megafauna remains; (4) During the last 10,000 years, the coastal region of Ecuador underwent significant changes in vegetation cover. At the Pleistocene/Holocene transition the climate changed from very arid conditions to humid conditions. Our data indicates that the megafauna definitively abandoned the Cordillera areas around 12,000 yr BP due to t he increasing aridity, and subsequently migrated to coastal areas where ecological conditions still were suitable, Santa Elena Peninsula and mainly Amazonian areas being typical. We conclude that the unusual high faunal concentrations and the change to dense vegetation cover (due to a rapid increase in precipitation in the lower Holocene) at 8000-6000 yr BP, caused the final collapse and extinction of most elements of the mammal megafauna

  17. Late Quaternary Megafaunal Extinctions in Northern Eurasia: Latest Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stuart, Anthony

    2010-05-01

    archaeological records in collaboration with colleagues at Durham University, Royal Holloway, University of London and Southampton University. It is clear from the results that environmental change had a major impact, but the geographical and chronological patterns are complex and there is striking variation in extinction dynamics between species. For example cave bear and spotted hyaena show early extinction in Europe c.28 cal ka, whereas cave lion and woolly rhino disappeared in the Late Glacial c.14 cal ka, and mammoth and giant deer persisted in limited areas well into the Holocene. Our current NERC funded project (3 years from March 2009) extends the scope of our research to include several species that survive to the present day: e.g. musk ox, reindeer, horse, red deer, and moose, and is also extended geographically to Alaska, and the Yukon. Modelling of vegetational changes during the last 40,000 years (by our colleagues at Durham: Judy Allen, Yvonne Collingham, Brian Huntley, using LPJ-Guess data from Paul Valdes) is providing much better geographical coverage than the available pollen data, and also structure and productivity of the vegetation - both of considerable importance to the mammal fauna. Comparing the chronological and geographical dynamics of extant and extinct species promises to shed light on why some species were lost whereas others survived. Moreover, by using a niche-modelling approach we hope to show whether or not species became extinct due to habitat loss, or whether other factors such as human hunting might have been involved in their final disappearance.

  18. Persistence and extinction for a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teng, Zhidong; Wang, Lei

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. It is shown that the extinction and persistence of the disease in probability are determined by a threshold value R˜0. That is, if R˜0 < 1 and an additional condition holds then disease dies out, and if R˜0 > 1 then disease is weak permanent with probability one. To obtain the permanence in the mean of the disease, a new quantity R̂0 is introduced, and it is proved that if R̂0 > 1 the disease is permanent in the mean with probability one. Furthermore, the numerical simulations are presented to illustrate some open problems given in Remarks 1-3 and 5 of this paper.

  19. Stochastic resonance and noise delayed extinction in a model of two competing species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valenti, D.; Fiasconaro, A.; Spagnolo, B.

    2004-01-01

    We study the role of the noise in the dynamics of two competing species. We consider generalized Lotka-Volterra equations in the presence of a multiplicative noise, which models the interaction between the species and the environment. The interaction parameter between the species is a random process which obeys a stochastic differential equation with a generalized bistable potential in the presence of a periodic driving term, which accounts for the environment temperature variation. We find noise-induced periodic oscillations of the species concentrations and stochastic resonance phenomenon. We find also a nonmonotonic behavior of the mean extinction time of one of the two competing species as a function of the additive noise intensity.

  20. Examination of hypotheses for the Permo-Triassic boundary extinction by carbon cycle modeling.

    PubMed

    Berner, Robert A

    2002-04-01

    The biological extinction that occurred at the Permian-Triassic boundary represents the most extensive loss of species of any known event of the past 550 million years. There have been a wide variety of explanations offered for this extinction. In the present paper, a number of the more popular recent hypotheses are evaluated in terms of predictions that they make, or that they imply, concerning the global carbon cycle. For this purpose, a mass balance model is used that calculates atmospheric CO2 and oceanic delta13C as a function of time. Hypotheses considered include: (i) the release of massive amounts of CO2 from the ocean to the atmosphere resulting in mass poisoning; (ii) the release of large amounts of CO2 from volcanic degassing; (iii) the release of methane stored in methane hydrates; (iv) the decomposition and oxidation of dead organisms to CO2 after sudden mass mortality; and (v) the long-term reorganization of the global carbon cycle. The modeling indicates that measured short-term changes in delta13C at the boundary are best explained by methane release with mass mortality and volcanic degassing contributing in secondary roles. None of the processes result in excessively high levels of atmospheric CO2 if they occurred on time scales of more than about 1,000 years. The idea of poisoning by high levels of atmospheric CO2 depends on the absence of subthermocline calcium carbonate deposition during the latest Permian. The most far-reaching effect was found to be reorganization of the carbon cycle with major sedimentary burial of organic matter shifting from the land to the sea, resulting in less burial overall, decreased atmospheric O2, and higher atmospheric CO2 for the entire Triassic Period. PMID:11917102

  1. K-Pg extinction patterns in marine and freshwater environments: The impact winter model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, Douglas S.; Lewis, William M.; Sheehan, Peter M.; Toon, Owen B.

    2013-07-01

    Chicxulub asteroid impact produced massive extinction in terrestrial environments most likely through an intense heat pulse and subsequent widespread fires. Aquatic environments were shielded from this heat and fire but nevertheless showed massive extinction in marine environments and, for reasons unexplained, far less extinction in freshwater environments. Extinction in marine environments resulted from the effects of an "impact winter" caused by dust and smoke in the atmosphere that extinguished sunlight at the Earth's surface for a period of months to years. The resulting cessation of photosynthesis caused a globally extensive extinction of phytoplankton taxa. Because aquatic ecosystems, unlike terrestrial environments, are strongly dependent on daily photosynthetic output by autotrophs, loss of phytoplankton likely caused catastrophic mortality and extinction in aquatic ecosystems. Other potential causes of mortality in aquatic ecosystems include lower ambient temperatures and anoxia due to the lack of photosynthetic oxygen. Inland waters, although probably subject to high mortality, showed lower proportionate extinction than marine environments probably because of the greater potential among the freshwater taxa for dormancy, the greater efficiency of reaeration by rapid flow to offset oxygen demand, abundant thermal refugia fed by groundwater at moderate temperatures, and preadaptation of freshwater taxa to a great degree of environmental variability. In addition, detrital feeders appear to have had low extinction rates in either marine or freshwater environments, but again freshwater taxa would have been favored by higher renewal rates of detrital organic matter as a result of their direct hydrologic contact with soil.

  2. Phreatomagmatic Pipes of the Tunguska basin (Siberia): Improvement of End-Permian Mass Extinction Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polozov, Alexander; Svensen, Henrik; Planke, Sverre; Jerram, Dougal

    2014-05-01

    Formation of the Siberian Traps Large Igneous Province is regarded as key phenomena responsible for the end-Permian mass extinction. Extinct event was accelerating due to release of enormous amount of gases throughout numerous basalt pipes, originated from contact aureoles of dolerite sills intruded into Tunguska Basin. Tunguska sedimentary basin consists of Precambrian and Paleozoic evaporites, carbonates and terrigenous rocks including Late Paleozoic coal-bearing strata. Precambrian and early Paleozoic oil source rocks contain numerous high potential oil and gas fields. Paleozoic evaporites contain rock and potassium salts deposits of commercial grade. Tunguska Basin evaporites are considered as a regional seal for the mineralizing brines. Permian-Triassic volcaniclastic rocks overlie this sequence and intrusive rocks have the numerous evidences of magma-sediment interaction result in basalt pipes formation. Compilation of available Russian literature gives us a chance to make a conclusion that hundreds of basalt pipes occur in the Tunguska Basin. The basalt pipes cross over all known dolerite intrusions and are filled with breccias of magmatic, volcaniclastic and sedimentary rocks altered to varying extents. Pipes from the Tunguska Basin south have a phreatomagmatic origin that is supported by ubiquitous occurrence of altered sedimentary clasts and volcaniclastic lapilli, corroded by brine during initial stages of magma-evaporite (brine) interaction. Corroded lapilli rimmed by diopside, chlorine-bearing hornblende, apatite and magnetite. Our recent study of magnetite-rich coarse lapilli tuffs revealed the garnet lapilli rimmed with magnetite cemented by altered clay groundmass enriched by native metals (Cu, Sn, Zn). This result corroborates our hypothesis about magnetite formation during initial stage of magma-sediment-brine interaction. We suggest that these observations could shed light on end-Permian aerosol flux originated from basalt pipes and could provide

  3. Is extinction age dependent?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Doran, N.A.; Arnold, A.J.; Parker, W.C.; Huffer, F.W.

    2006-01-01

    Age-dependent extinction is an observation with important biological implications. Van Valen's Red Queen hypothesis triggered three decades of research testing its primary implication: that age is independent of extinction. In contrast to this, later studies with species-level data have indicated the possible presence of age dependence. Since the formulation of the Red Queen hypothesis, more powerful tests of survivorship models have been developed. This is the first report of the application of the Cox Proportional Hazards model to paleontological data. Planktonic foraminiferal morphospecies allow the taxonomic and precise stratigraphic resolution necessary for the Cox model. As a whole, planktonic foraminiferal morphospecies clearly show age-dependent extinction. In particular, the effect is attributable to the presence of shorter-ranged species (range < 4 myr) following extinction events. These shorter-ranged species also possess tests with unique morphological architecture. The morphological differences are probably epiphenomena of underlying developmental and heterochronic processes of shorter-ranged species that survived various extinction events. Extinction survivors carry developmental and morphological characteristics into postextinction recovery times, and this sets them apart from species populations established independently of extinction events. Copyright ?? 2006, SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology).

  4. Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Early Solar System Chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    The following topics were presented in this report: Iron Isotopic Fractionation During Vacuum Evaporation of Molten W?stite and Solar Compositions; Mg Isotope Ratio Zonation in CAIs - New Constraints on CAI Evolution; Sm-Nd Systematics of Chondrites; AMS Measurement of Mg-24(He-3,p)Al-26 Cross Section, Implications for the Al-26 Production in the Early Solar System; On Early Solar System Chronology: Implications of an Initially Heterogeneous Distribution of Short-lived Radionuclides; Revisiting Extraterrestrial U Isotope Ratios; Helium-Shell Nucleosynthesis and Extinct Radioactivities; High Spatial Resolution Ion Microprobe Measurements Refine Chronology of Orgueil Carbonate Formation; and Calibration of the Galactic Cosmic Ray Flux.

  5. Effects of the protein synthesis inhibitor cycloheximide on anxiety-like extinction behavior in an animal model of post-traumatic stress.

    PubMed

    Sandusky, Leslie A; Flint, Robert W; McNay, Ewan C

    2012-05-16

    The effect of cycloheximide (CXM), a protein synthesis inhibitor, on memory reconsolidation and extinction was explored in rats using a model of post-traumatic stress. Forty-two animals were exposed to predator stress followed by 1, 2, or 4 extinction trials. Saline or CXM (1 mg/kg) was administered following the last extinction trial and anxiety was measured in the elevated-plus maze (EPM) seventy-two hours later. Saline control animals exhibited elevated anxiety levels in comparison to a no stress control group. Cycloheximide appeared to maintain stress-induced anxiety responses, which otherwise declined with repeated extinction trials in the saline control groups. These findings suggest that cycloheximide may have induced amnesia for extinction, leaving the target memory of the predatory stress intact resulting in elevated levels of anxiety. The relationships between de novo protein synthesis and reconsolidation of anxiety-related memories following extinction trials may be more complex than originally thought. PMID:22465354

  6. Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change.

    PubMed

    Brook, Barry W; Akçakaya, H Resit; Keith, David A; Mace, Georgina M; Pearson, Richard G; Araújo, Miguel B

    2009-12-23

    Climate change is already affecting species worldwide, yet existing methods of risk assessment have not considered interactions between demography and climate and their simultaneous effect on habitat distribution and population viability. To address this issue, an international workshop was held at the University of Adelaide in Australia, 25-29 May 2009, bringing leading species distribution and population modellers together with plant ecologists. Building on two previous workshops in the UK and Spain, the participants aimed to develop methodological standards and case studies for integrating bioclimatic and metapopulation models, to provide more realistic forecasts of population change, habitat fragmentation and extinction risk under climate change. The discussions and case studies focused on several challenges, including spatial and temporal scale contingencies, choice of predictive climate, land use, soil type and topographic variables, procedures for ensemble forecasting of both global climate and bioclimate models and developing demographic structures that are realistic and species-specific and yet allow generalizations of traits that make species vulnerable to climate change. The goal is to provide general guidelines for assessing the Red-List status of large numbers of species potentially at risk, owing to the interactions of climate change with other threats such as habitat destruction, overexploitation and invasive species. PMID:19625300

  7. Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Brook, Barry W.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Keith, David A.; Mace, Georgina M.; Pearson, Richard G.; Araújo, Miguel B.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is already affecting species worldwide, yet existing methods of risk assessment have not considered interactions between demography and climate and their simultaneous effect on habitat distribution and population viability. To address this issue, an international workshop was held at the University of Adelaide in Australia, 25–29 May 2009, bringing leading species distribution and population modellers together with plant ecologists. Building on two previous workshops in the UK and Spain, the participants aimed to develop methodological standards and case studies for integrating bioclimatic and metapopulation models, to provide more realistic forecasts of population change, habitat fragmentation and extinction risk under climate change. The discussions and case studies focused on several challenges, including spatial and temporal scale contingencies, choice of predictive climate, land use, soil type and topographic variables, procedures for ensemble forecasting of both global climate and bioclimate models and developing demographic structures that are realistic and species-specific and yet allow generalizations of traits that make species vulnerable to climate change. The goal is to provide general guidelines for assessing the Red-List status of large numbers of species potentially at risk, owing to the interactions of climate change with other threats such as habitat destruction, overexploitation and invasive species. PMID:19625300

  8. Fear conditioning and extinction across development: evidence from human studies and animal models.

    PubMed

    Shechner, Tomer; Hong, Melanie; Britton, Jennifer C; Pine, Daniel S; Fox, Nathan A

    2014-07-01

    The ability to differentiate danger and safety through associative processes emerges early in life. Understanding the mechanisms underlying associative learning of threat and safety can clarify the processes that shape development of normative fears and pathological anxiety. Considerable research has used fear conditioning and extinction paradigms to delineate underlying mechanisms in animals and human adults; however, little is known about these mechanisms in children and adolescents. The current paper summarizes the empirical data on the development of fear conditioning and extinction. It reviews methodological considerations and future directions for research on fear conditioning and extinction in pediatric populations. PMID:24746848

  9. DEVELOPMENT OF AQUATIC MODELS FOR TESTING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GENETIC DIVERSITY AND POPULATION EXTINCTION RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    The relationship between population adaptive potential and extinction risk in a changing environment is not well understood. Although the expectation is that genetic diversity is directly related to the capacity of populations to adapt, the statistical and predictive aspects of ...

  10. Improving late Holocene radiocarbon-based chronologies by matching paleomagnetic secular variations to geomagnetic field models - Examples from Nam Co (Tibet) and Lake Kalimpaa (Sulawesi)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haberzettl, T.; Kasper, T.; St-Onge, G.; Behling, H.; Daut, G.; Doberschütz, S.; Kirleis, W.; Mäusbacher, R.; Nowaczyk, N.

    2010-12-01

    Precise age control is a prerequisite for reliable paleoenvironmental reconstruction. Almost all Holocene chronologies of lacustrine sequences are based on radiocarbon dating. Most reliable ages are obtained from fragile terrestrial vegetation remnants (e.g., leaves) as these neither yield a reservoir or hard water effect nor are reworked as they would be destroyed during this process. However, in many records no terrestrial plant remains or macro remains in general are found in the sediments. In this case the only option to establish a radiocarbon based chronology is to date bulk sediment. This sediment sometimes contains reworked material or, in hard water lakes, aquatic organic remains which contain old carbon - both resulting in older ages. Here we present two records dated by bulk material showing these inconveniences. Nam Co is a hard water lake on the Tibetan Plateau (30.5°N, 91°E). Previous studies from various sites in this lake revealed different hard water effects. A radiocarbon date of bulk sediment from the top of a gravity core yielded an age of 1420 ±40 BP for the sediment/water interface. In order to test if this value can be constantly extrapolated back in time we established a reservoir corrected chronology with this value. Subsequently, we compared inclination and declination data to the CALS3k.3 and the CALS7k geomagnetic field models which currently provide the best representation of the late Holocene geomagnetic field. This showed excellent accordance for the period covered by the gravity core, i.e., ~4000 cal BP. Lake Kalimpaa (1.3°S, 120.3°E) is located on the island of Sulawesi, Indonesia. Radiocarbon-dated bulk samples also showed inconsistencies. Most likely not only the autochthonous carbon fraction was dated but also some allochthonous organic matter was incorporated into the samples. If this is the case, all ages are tentatively too old. Following a conservative approach, in order to minimize this error, only the youngest dates

  11. Fear Extinction in Rodents

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Chun-hui; Knapska, Ewelina; Orsini, Caitlin A.; Rabinak, Christine A.; Zimmerman, Joshua M.; Maren, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    Pavlovian conditioning paradigms have become important model systems for understanding the neuroscience of behavior. In particular, studies of the extinction of Pavlovian fear responses are yielding important information about the neural substrates of anxiety disorders in humans. These studies are germane to understanding the neural mechanisms underlying behavioral interventions that suppress fear, including exposure therapy. This chapter described detailed behavioral protocols for examining the nature and properties of fear extinction in laboratory rodents. PMID:19340814

  12. Antidepressants reduce extinction-induced withdrawal and biting behaviors: a model for depressive-like behavior.

    PubMed

    Huston, J P; van den Brink, J; Komorowski, M; Huq, Y; Topic, B

    2012-05-17

    The withholding of expected rewards results in extinction of behavior and, hypothetically, to depression-like symptoms. In a test of this hypothesis, we examined the effects of extinction of food-reinforced lever-pressing on collateral behaviors that might be indices of depression. Operant extinction is known to be aversive to the organism and results in avoidance behavior. We hypothesized that avoidance of, or withdrawal from, the former source of reward may serve as a marker for "despair." Adult male Wistar rats (n=6-7 animals per group) were exposed to a Skinner box attached to a second compartment of the same size, providing opportunity for the animals to leave the operant chamber and to enter the "withdrawal" compartment. The animals spent a portion of the time during the extinction trials in this second chamber. To assess the predictive validity of this behavior as a potential marker of "despair," we tested the effects of chronic administration of two common antidepressant drugs on this measure. The tricyclic antidepressant imipramine (20 mg/kg) as well as the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor citalopram (20 mg/kg) reduced the number of entries and time spent in the withdrawal compartment. We propose that entries into and time spent in the withdrawal compartment may operationalize "avoidance," a core symptom of major depression. Rearing as well as biting behaviors during the extinction trials were also attenuated by the antidepressant treatment. These results lend support to the hypothesis that extinction of positively reinforced operants evokes behaviors that reflect elements of "despair/depression" because these behaviors are modulated by antidepressant treatment. The avoidance of the operant chamber as a consequence of extinction, together with rearing and biting behaviors, may serve as useful measures for the testing of antidepressant treatments. PMID:22410342

  13. Modeling routes of chronic wasting disease transmission: Environmental prion persistence promotes deer population decline and extinction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Almberg, Emily S.; Cross, Paul C.; Johnson, Christopher J.; Heisey, Dennis M.; Richards, Bryan J.

    2011-01-01

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal disease of deer, elk, and moose transmitted through direct, animal-to-animal contact, and indirectly, via environmental contamination. Considerable attention has been paid to modeling direct transmission, but despite the fact that CWD prions can remain infectious in the environment for years, relatively little information exists about the potential effects of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics. In the present study, we use simulation models to demonstrate how indirect transmission and the duration of environmental prion persistence may affect epidemics of CWD and populations of North American deer. Existing data from Colorado, Wyoming, and Wisconsin's CWD epidemics were used to define plausible short-term outcomes and associated parameter spaces. Resulting long-term outcomes range from relatively low disease prevalence and limited host-population decline to host-population collapse and extinction. Our models suggest that disease prevalence and the severity of population decline is driven by the duration that prions remain infectious in the environment. Despite relatively low epidemic growth rates, the basic reproductive number, R0, may be much larger than expected under the direct-transmission paradigm because the infectious period can vastly exceed the host's life span. High prion persistence is expected to lead to an increasing environmental pool of prions during the early phases (i.e. approximately during the first 50 years) of the epidemic. As a consequence, over this period of time, disease dynamics will become more heavily influenced by indirect transmission, which may explain some of the observed regional differences in age and sex-specific disease patterns. This suggests management interventions, such as culling or vaccination, will become increasingly less effective as CWD epidemics progress.

  14. A general model of distant hybridization reveals the conditions for extinction in Atlantic salmon and brown trout.

    PubMed

    Quilodrán, Claudio S; Currat, Mathias; Montoya-Burgos, Juan I

    2014-01-01

    Interspecific hybridization is common in nature but can be increased in frequency or even originated by human actions, such as species introduction or habitat modification, which may threaten species persistence. When hybridization occurs between distantly related species, referred to as "distant hybridization," the resulting hybrids are generally infertile or fertile but do not undergo chromosomal recombination during gametogenesis. Here, we present a model describing this frequent but poorly studied interspecific hybridization to assess its consequences on parental species and to anticipate the conditions under which they can reach extinction. Our general model fully incorporates three important processes: density-dependent competition, dominance/recessivity inheritance of traits and assortative mating. We demonstrate its use and flexibility by assessing population extinction risk between Atlantic salmon and brown trout in Norway, whose interbreeding has recently increased due to farmed fish releases into the wild. We identified the set of conditions under which hybridization may threaten salmonid species. Thanks to the flexibility of our model, we evaluated the effect of an additional risk factor, a parasitic disease, and showed that the cumulative effects dramatically increase the extinction risk. The consequences of distant hybridization are not genetically, but demographically mediated. Our general model is useful to better comprehend the evolution of such hybrid systems and we demonstrated its importance in the field of conservation biology to set up management recommendations when this increasingly frequent type of hybridization is in action. PMID:25003336

  15. A General Model of Distant Hybridization Reveals the Conditions for Extinction in Atlantic Salmon and Brown Trout

    PubMed Central

    Quilodrán, Claudio S.; Currat, Mathias; Montoya-Burgos, Juan I.

    2014-01-01

    Interspecific hybridization is common in nature but can be increased in frequency or even originated by human actions, such as species introduction or habitat modification, which may threaten species persistence. When hybridization occurs between distantly related species, referred to as “distant hybridization,” the resulting hybrids are generally infertile or fertile but do not undergo chromosomal recombination during gametogenesis. Here, we present a model describing this frequent but poorly studied interspecific hybridization to assess its consequences on parental species and to anticipate the conditions under which they can reach extinction. Our general model fully incorporates three important processes: density-dependent competition, dominance/recessivity inheritance of traits and assortative mating. We demonstrate its use and flexibility by assessing population extinction risk between Atlantic salmon and brown trout in Norway, whose interbreeding has recently increased due to farmed fish releases into the wild. We identified the set of conditions under which hybridization may threaten salmonid species. Thanks to the flexibility of our model, we evaluated the effect of an additional risk factor, a parasitic disease, and showed that the cumulative effects dramatically increase the extinction risk. The consequences of distant hybridization are not genetically, but demographically mediated. Our general model is useful to better comprehend the evolution of such hybrid systems and we demonstrated its importance in the field of conservation biology to set up management recommendations when this increasingly frequent type of hybridization is in action. PMID:25003336

  16. Modeling study on seasonal variation in aerosol extinction properties over China.

    PubMed

    Gao, Yi; Zhang, Meigen

    2014-01-01

    To investigate the seasonal variation of aerosol optical depth (AOD), extinction coefficient (EXT), single scattering albedo (SSA) and the decomposed impacts from sulfate (SO4(2-)) and black carbon (BC) over China, numerical experiments are conducted from November 2007 to December 2008 by using WRF-Chem. Comparison of model results with measurements shows that model can reproduce the spatial distribution and seasonal variation of AOD and SSA. Over south China, AOD is largest in spring (0.6-1.2) and lowest in summer (0.2-0.6). Over north, northeast and east China, AOD is highest in summer while lowest in winter. The high value of EXT under 850 hPa which is the reflection of low visibility ranges from 0.4-0.8 km(-1) and the high value area shifts to north during winter, spring and summer, then back to south in autumn. SSA is 0.92-0.94 in winter and 0.94-0.96 for the other three seasons because of highest BC concentration in winter over south China. Over east China, SSA is highest (0.92-0.96) in summer, and 0.88-0.92 during winter, spring and autumn as the concentration of scattering aerosol is highest while BC concentration is lowest in summer over this region. Over north China, SSA is highest (0.9-0.94) in summer and lowest (0.82-0.86) in winter due to the significant variation of aerosol concentration. The SO4(2-) induced EXT increases about 5%-55% and the impacts of BC on EXT is much smaller (2%-10%). The SO4(2-)-induced increase in SSA is 0.01-0.08 and the BC-induced SSA decreases 0.02-0.18. PMID:24649695

  17. MODELING THE ANOMALY OF SURFACE NUMBER DENSITIES OF GALAXIES ON THE GALACTIC EXTINCTION MAP DUE TO THEIR FIR EMISSION CONTAMINATION

    SciTech Connect

    Kashiwagi, Toshiya; Suto, Yasushi; Taruya, Atsushi; Yahata, Kazuhiro; Kayo, Issha; Nishimichi, Takahiro

    2015-02-01

    The most widely used Galactic extinction map is constructed assuming that the observed far-infrared (FIR) fluxes come entirely from Galactic dust. According to the earlier suggestion by Yahata et al., we consider how FIR emission of galaxies affects the SFD map. We first compute the surface number density of Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) DR7 galaxies as a function of the r-band extinction, A {sub r,} {sub SFD}. We confirm that the surface densities of those galaxies positively correlate with A {sub r,} {sub SFD} for A {sub r,} {sub SFD} < 0.1, as first discovered by Yahata et al. for SDSS DR4 galaxies. Next we construct an analytical model to compute the surface density of galaxies, taking into account the contamination of their FIR emission. We adopt a log-normal probability distribution for the ratio of 100 μm and r-band luminosities of each galaxy, y ≡ (νL){sub 100} {sub μm}/(νL) {sub r}. Then we search for the mean and rms values of y that fit the observed anomaly, using the analytical model. The required values to reproduce the anomaly are roughly consistent with those measured from the stacking analysis of SDSS galaxies. Due to the limitation of our statistical modeling, we are not yet able to remove the FIR contamination of galaxies from the extinction map. Nevertheless, the agreement with the model prediction suggests that the FIR emission of galaxies is mainly responsible for the observed anomaly. Whereas the corresponding systematic error in the Galactic extinction map is 0.1-1 mmag, it is directly correlated with galaxy clustering and thus needs to be carefully examined in precision cosmology.

  18. Extinctions of life

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1988-01-01

    This meeting presentation examines mass extinctions through earth's history. Extinctions are charted for marine families and marine genera. Timing of marine genera extinctions is discussed. Periodicity in extinctions during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic eras is plotted and compared with Paleozoic extinction peaks. The role of extinction in evolution and mankind's role in present extinctions are examined.

  19. Slower extinction of responses maintained by intra-cranial self-stimulation (ICSS) in an animal model of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

    PubMed

    Johansen, Espen Borgå; Sagvolden, Terje

    2005-07-01

    Children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) show performance deficits and excessive motor activity during extinction and in situations where no reinforcer can be identified, suggesting an extinction deficit in ADHD possibly linked to dopamine dysfunction. The present study examined extinction of responding previously maintained by intra-cranial self-stimulation (ICSS) in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR), an animal model of ADHD using three different extinction procedures. Delivery of electrical pulses were terminated altogether or presented independently of responding using two different current intensities. The results showed that more responses were retained in the SHR, especially during the initial transition from ICSS-maintained responding to response-independent delivery of electrical pulses with current reduced relative to that given during reinforcement. Slower extinction of previously reinforced behavior is suggested as an alternative explanation for the frequently observed increased behavioral output that has previously been interpreted as "disinhibition" of behavior in ADHD. PMID:15922064

  20. Extinction with multiple excitors

    PubMed Central

    McConnell, Bridget L.; Miguez, Gonzalo; Miller, Ralph R.

    2012-01-01

    Four conditioned suppression experiments with rats, using an ABC renewal design, investigated the effects of compounding the target conditioned excitor with additional, nontarget conditioned excitors during extinction. Experiment 1 showed stronger extinction, as evidenced by less renewal, when the target excitor was extinguished in compound with a second excitor, relative to when it was extinguished with associatively neutral stimuli. Critically, this deepened extinction effect was attenuated (i.e., more renewal occurred) when a third excitor was added during extinction training. This novel demonstration contradicts the predictions of associative learning models based on total error reduction, but it is explicable in terms of a counteraction effect within the framework of the extended comparator hypothesis. The attenuated deepened extinction effect was replicated in Experiments 2a and 3, which also showed that pretraining consisting of weakening the association between the two additional excitors (Experiments 2a and 2b) or weakening the association between one of the additional excitors and the unconditioned stimulus (Experiment 3) attenuated the counteraction effect, thereby resulting in a decrease in responding to the target excitor. These results suggest that more than simple total error reduction determines responding after extinction. PMID:23055103

  1. Extinction of oscillating populations.

    PubMed

    Smith, Naftali R; Meerson, Baruch

    2016-03-01

    Established populations often exhibit oscillations in their sizes that, in the deterministic theory, correspond to a limit cycle in the space of population sizes. If a population is isolated, the intrinsic stochasticity of elemental processes can ultimately bring it to extinction. Here we study extinction of oscillating populations in a stochastic version of the Rosenzweig-MacArthur predator-prey model. To this end we develop a WKB (Wentzel, Kramers and Brillouin) approximation to the master equation, employing the characteristic population size as the large parameter. Similar WKB theories have been developed previously in the context of population extinction from an attracting multipopulation fixed point. We evaluate the extinction rates and find the most probable paths to extinction from the limit cycle by applying Floquet theory to the dynamics of an effective four-dimensional WKB Hamiltonian. We show that the entropic barriers to extinction change in a nonanalytic way as the system passes through the Hopf bifurcation. We also study the subleading pre-exponential factors of the WKB approximation. PMID:27078294

  2. Extinction of oscillating populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Naftali R.; Meerson, Baruch

    2016-03-01

    Established populations often exhibit oscillations in their sizes that, in the deterministic theory, correspond to a limit cycle in the space of population sizes. If a population is isolated, the intrinsic stochasticity of elemental processes can ultimately bring it to extinction. Here we study extinction of oscillating populations in a stochastic version of the Rosenzweig-MacArthur predator-prey model. To this end we develop a WKB (Wentzel, Kramers and Brillouin) approximation to the master equation, employing the characteristic population size as the large parameter. Similar WKB theories have been developed previously in the context of population extinction from an attracting multipopulation fixed point. We evaluate the extinction rates and find the most probable paths to extinction from the limit cycle by applying Floquet theory to the dynamics of an effective four-dimensional WKB Hamiltonian. We show that the entropic barriers to extinction change in a nonanalytic way as the system passes through the Hopf bifurcation. We also study the subleading pre-exponential factors of the WKB approximation.

  3. Effects of single prolonged stress and D-cycloserine on contextual fear extinction and hippocampal NMDA receptor expression in a rat model of PTSD.

    PubMed

    Yamamoto, Shigeto; Morinobu, Shigeru; Fuchikami, Manabu; Kurata, Akiko; Kozuru, Toshiro; Yamawaki, Shigeto

    2008-08-01

    Although the impaired extinction of traumatic memory is one of the hallmark symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), the underlying mechanisms of impaired extinction are unclear and effective pharmacological interventions have not yet been developed. Single prolonged stress (SPS) has been proposed as an animal model of PTSD, since rats subjected to SPS (SPS rats) show enhanced negative feedback of the HPA axis and increased contextual fear, which are characteristics similar to those observed in patients with PTSD. In this study, using SPS rats, we examined (a) the ability of SPS to impair fear extinction, (b) whether D-cycloserine (DCS) can alleviate impaired fear extinction in SPS rats, and (c) the effect of SPS and/or DCS on the levels of N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor subunit mRNAs in the rat hippocampus during extinction training. SPS rats exhibited impaired fear extinction in the contextual fear test, which was alleviated by the repeated administration of DCS. The effect of enhanced extinction, induced by the administration of DCS to SPS rats, was maintained for one week following extinction training. SPS induced significant upregulation of the levels of NMDA receptor subunit mRNAs before and during the period of extinction training, while repeated administration of DCS eliminated the enhanced mRNA levels of NMDARs. Behavioral analyses indicated that SPS is an appropriate animal model of PTSD and that DCS may be effective in the treatment of PTSD. These findings suggest that DCS, irrespective of its mechanistic involvement in the enhancement of fear extinction, may help to reverse hippocampal plasticity, and thus reverse the NMDA compensatory alterations. PMID:17957211

  4. Differential reinforcement of alternative behavior increases resistance to extinction: clinical demonstration, animal modeling, and clinical test of one solution.

    PubMed

    Mace, F Charles; McComas, Jennifer J; Mauro, Benjamin C; Progar, Patrick R; Taylor, Bridget; Ervin, Ruth; Zangrillo, Amanda N

    2010-05-01

    Basic research with pigeons on behavioral momentum suggests that differential reinforcement of alternative behavior (DRA) can increase the resistance of target behavior to change. This finding suggests that clinical applications of DRA may inadvertently increase the persistence of target behavior even as it decreases its frequency. We conducted three coordinated experiments to test whether DRA has persistence-strengthening effects on clinically significant target behavior and then tested the effectiveness of a possible solution to this problem in both a nonhuman and clinical study. Experiment 1 compared resistance to extinction following baseline rates of reinforcement versus higher DRA rates of reinforcement in a clinical study. Resistance to extinction was substantially greater following DRA. Experiment 2 tested a rat model of a possible solution to this problem. Training an alternative response in a context without reinforcement of the target response circumvented the persistence-strengthening effects of DRA. Experiment 3 translated the rat model into a novel clinical application of DRA. Training an alternative response with DRA in a separate context resulted in lower resistance to extinction than employing DRA in the context correlated with reinforcement of target behavior. The value of coordinated bidirectional translational research is discussed. PMID:21119850

  5. Differential Reinforcement of Alternative Behavior Increases Resistance to Extinction: Clinical Demonstration, Animal Modeling, and Clinical Test of One Solution

    PubMed Central

    Mace, F. Charles; McComas, Jennifer J; Mauro, Benjamin C; Progar, Patrick R; Taylor, Bridget; Ervin, Ruth; Zangrillo, Amanda N

    2010-01-01

    Basic research with pigeons on behavioral momentum suggests that differential reinforcement of alternative behavior (DRA) can increase the resistance of target behavior to change. This finding suggests that clinical applications of DRA may inadvertently increase the persistence of target behavior even as it decreases its frequency. We conducted three coordinated experiments to test whether DRA has persistence-strengthening effects on clinically significant target behavior and then tested the effectiveness of a possible solution to this problem in both a nonhuman and clinical study. Experiment 1 compared resistance to extinction following baseline rates of reinforcement versus higher DRA rates of reinforcement in a clinical study. Resistance to extinction was substantially greater following DRA. Experiment 2 tested a rat model of a possible solution to this problem. Training an alternative response in a context without reinforcement of the target response circumvented the persistence-strengthening effects of DRA. Experiment 3 translated the rat model into a novel clinical application of DRA. Training an alternative response with DRA in a separate context resulted in lower resistance to extinction than employing DRA in the context correlated with reinforcement of target behavior. The value of coordinated bidirectional translational research is discussed. PMID:21119850

  6. A Unifying Model of the Role of the Infralimbic Cortex in Extinction and Habits

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barker, Jacqueline M.; Taylor, Jane R.; Chandler, L. Judson

    2014-01-01

    The infralimbic prefrontal cortex (IL) has been shown to be critical for the regulation of flexible behavior, but its precise function remains unclear. This region has been shown to be critical for the acquisition, consolidation, and expression of extinction learning, leading many to hypothesize that IL suppresses behavior as part of a…

  7. Pre-Wisconsinan mammals from Jamaica and models of late Quaternary extinction in the greater Antilles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacPhee, R. D. E.; Ford, Derek C.; McFarlane, Donald A.

    1989-01-01

    The vertebrate fauna recovered from indurated conglomerates at Wallingford Roadside Cave (central Jamaica) is shown to be in excess of 100,000 yr old according to uranium series and electron spin resonance dating. The Wallingford local fauna is therefore pre-Wisconsinan in age, and Roadside Cave is now the oldest radiometrically dated locality in the West Indies containing identifiable species of land mammals. In the absence of a good radiometric record for Quaternary paleontological sites in the Caribbean, there is no satisfactory basis for determining whether most extinct Antillean mammals died out in a "blitzkrieg"-like event immediately following initial human colonization in the mid-Holocene. Fossils of Clidomys (Heptaxodontidae, Caviomorpha), the giant Wallingford rodent, have never been found in situ in sediments of demonstrably Holocene age, and its extinction may antedate the middle Holocene. This is also a possibility for the primate Xenothrix mcgregori, although its remains have been found in loose cave earth. A major, climate-driven bout of terrestrial vertebrate extinction at about 14,000-12,000 yr B.P. has been hypothesized for the West Indies by G. Pregill and S. L. Olson ( Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics12, 75-98, 1981), but at present there is nothing to connect the disappearance of Clidomys with this event either. Quaternary extinctions in the Caribbean may prove to be of critical significance for evaluating the reality of New World blitzkrieg, but not until an effort is mounted to constrain them rigorously using modern radiometric approaches.

  8. Australian Extinctions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Science Teacher, 2005

    2005-01-01

    Massive extinctions of animals and the arrival of the first humans in ancient Australia--which occurred 45,000 to 55,000 years ago--may be linked. Researchers at the Carnegie Institution, University of Colorado, Australian National University, and Bates College believe that massive fires set by the first humans may have altered the ecosystem of…

  9. Neanderthal Extinction by Competitive Exclusion

    PubMed Central

    Banks, William E.; d'Errico, Francesco; Peterson, A. Townsend; Kageyama, Masa; Sima, Adriana; Sánchez-Goñi, Maria-Fernanda

    2008-01-01

    Background Despite a long history of investigation, considerable debate revolves around whether Neanderthals became extinct because of climate change or competition with anatomically modern humans (AMH). Methodology/Principal Findings We apply a new methodology integrating archaeological and chronological data with high-resolution paleoclimatic simulations to define eco-cultural niches associated with Neanderthal and AMH adaptive systems during alternating cold and mild phases of Marine Isotope Stage 3. Our results indicate that Neanderthals and AMH exploited similar niches, and may have continued to do so in the absence of contact. Conclusions/Significance The southerly contraction of Neanderthal range in southwestern Europe during Greenland Interstadial 8 was not due to climate change or a change in adaptation, but rather concurrent AMH geographic expansion appears to have produced competition that led to Neanderthal extinction. PMID:19107186

  10. Computational fluid dynamics model of avian tracheal temperature control as a model for extant and extinct animals.

    PubMed

    Sverdlova, N S; Arkali, F; Witzel, U; Perry, S F

    2013-10-01

    Respiratory evaporative cooling is an important mechanism of temperature control in bird. A computational simulation of the breathing cycle, heat and water loss in anatomical avian trachea/air sac model has not previously been conducted. We report a first attempt to simulate a breathing cycle in a three-dimensional model of avian trachea and air sacs (domestic fowl) using transient computational fluid dynamics. The airflow in the trachea of the model is evoked by changing the volume of the air sacs based on the measured tidal volume and inspiratory/expiratory times for the domestic fowl. We compare flow parameters and heat transfer results with in vivo data and with our previously reported results for a two-dimensional model. The total respiratory heat loss corresponds to about 13-19% of the starvation metabolic rate of domestic fowl. The present study can lend insight into a possible thermoregulatory function in species with long necks and/or a very long trachea, as found in swans and birds of paradise. Assuming the structure of the sauropod dinosaur respiratory system was close to avian, the simulation of the respiratory temperature control (using convective and evaporative cooling) in the extensively experimentally studied domestic fowl may also help in making simulations of respiratory heat control in these extinct animals. PMID:23797184

  11. Extinction Events Can Accelerate Evolution

    PubMed Central

    Lehman, Joel; Miikkulainen, Risto

    2015-01-01

    Extinction events impact the trajectory of biological evolution significantly. They are often viewed as upheavals to the evolutionary process. In contrast, this paper supports the hypothesis that although they are unpredictably destructive, extinction events may in the long term accelerate evolution by increasing evolvability. In particular, if extinction events extinguish indiscriminately many ways of life, indirectly they may select for the ability to expand rapidly through vacated niches. Lineages with such an ability are more likely to persist through multiple extinctions. Lending computational support for this hypothesis, this paper shows how increased evolvability will result from simulated extinction events in two computational models of evolved behavior. The conclusion is that although they are destructive in the short term, extinction events may make evolution more prolific in the long term. PMID:26266804

  12. Rescuing Ecosystems from Extinction Cascades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sahasrabudhe, Sagar; Motter, Adilson

    2010-03-01

    Food web perturbations stemming from climate change, overexploitation, invasive species, and natural disasters often cause an initial loss of species that results in a cascade of secondary extinctions. Using a predictive modeling framework, here we will present a systematic network-based approach to reduce the number of secondary extinctions. We will show that the extinction of one species can often be compensated by the concurrent removal of a second specific species, which is a counter-intuitive effect not previously tested in complex food webs. These compensatory perturbations frequently involve long-range interactions that are not a priori evident from local predator-prey relationships. Strikingly, in numerous cases even the early removal of a species that would eventually be extinct by the cascade is found to significantly reduce the number of cascading extinctions. Other nondestructive interventions based on partial removals and growth suppression and/or mortality increase are shown to sometimes prevent all secondary extinctions.

  13. Why would we use the Sediment Isotope Tomography (SIT) model to establish a 210Pb-based chronology in recent-sediment cores?

    PubMed

    Abril Hernández, José-María

    2015-05-01

    After half a century, the use of unsupported (210)Pb ((210)Pbexc) is still far off from being a well established dating tool for recent sediments with widespread applicability. Recent results from the statistical analysis of time series of fluxes, mass sediment accumulation rates (SAR), and initial activities, derived from varved sediments, place serious constraints to the assumption of constant fluxes, which is widely used in dating models. The Sediment Isotope Tomography (SIT) model, under the assumption of non post-depositional redistribution, is used for dating recent sediments in scenarios in that fluxes and SAR are uncorrelated and both vary with time. By using a simple graphical analysis, this paper shows that under the above assumptions, any given (210)Pbexc profile, even with the restriction of a discrete set of reference points, is compatible with an infinite number of chronological lines, and thus generating an infinite number of mathematically exact solutions for histories of initial activity concentrations, SAR and fluxes onto the SWI, with these two last ranging from zero up to infinity. Particularly, SIT results, without additional assumptions, cannot contain any statistically significant difference with respect to the exact solutions consisting in intervals of constant SAR or constant fluxes (both being consistent with the reference points). Therefore, there is not any benefit in its use as a dating tool without the explicit introduction of additional restrictive assumptions about fluxes, SAR and/or their interrelationship. PMID:25725452

  14. Flame-Vortex Studies to Quantify Markstein Numbers Needed to Model Flame Extinction Limits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Driscoll, James F.; Feikema, Douglas A.

    2003-01-01

    This has quantified a database of Markstein numbers for unsteady flames; future work will quantify a database of flame extinction limits for unsteady conditions. Unsteady extinction limits have not been documented previously; both a stretch rate and a residence time must be measured, since extinction requires that the stretch rate be sufficiently large for a sufficiently long residence time. Ma was measured for an inwardly-propagating flame (IPF) that is negatively-stretched under microgravity conditions. Computations also were performed using RUN-1DL to explain the measurements. The Markstein number of an inwardly-propagating flame, for both the microgravity experiment and the computations, is significantly larger than that of an outwardy-propagating flame. The computed profiles of the various species within the flame suggest reasons. Computed hydrogen concentrations build up ahead of the IPF but not the OPF. Understanding was gained by running the computations for both simplified and full-chemistry conditions. Numerical Simulations. To explain the experimental findings, numerical simulations of both inwardly and outwardly propagating spherical flames (with complex chemistry) were generated using the RUN-1DL code, which includes 16 species and 46 reactions.

  15. Chronology protection conjecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawking, S. W.

    1992-07-01

    It has been suggested that an advanced civilization might have the technology to warp spacetime so that closed timelike curves would appear, allowing travel into the past. This paper examines this possibility in the case that the causality violations appear in a finite region of spacetime without curvature singularities. There will be a Cauchy horizon that is compactly generated and that in general contains one or more closed null geodesics which will be incomplete. One can define geometrical quantities that measure the Lorentz boost and area increase on going round these closed null geodesics. If the causality violation developed from a noncompact initial surface, the averaged weak energy condition must be violated on the Cauchy horizon. This shows that one cannot create closed timelike curves with finite lengths of cosmic string. Even if violations of the weak energy condition are allowed by quantum theory, the expectation value of the energy-momentum tensor would get very large if timelike curves become almost closed. It seems the back reaction would prevent closed timelike curves from appearing. These results strongly support the chronology protection conjecture: The laws of physics do not allow the appearance of closed timelike curves.

  16. Chronology protection conjecture

    SciTech Connect

    Hawking, S.W. )

    1992-07-15

    It has been suggested that an advanced civilization might have the technology to warp spacetime so that closed timelike curves would appear, allowing travel into the past. This paper examines this possibility in the case that the causality violations appear in a finite region of spacetime without curvature singularities. There will be a Cauchy horizon that is compactly generated and that in general contains one or more closed null geodesics which will be incomplete. One can define geometrical quantities that measure the Lorentz boost and area increase on going round these closed null geodesics. If the causality violation developed from a noncompact initial surface, the averaged weak energy condition must be violated on the Cauchy horizon. This shows that one cannot create closed timelike curves with finite lengths of cosmic string. Even if violations of the weak energy condition are allowed by quantum theory, the expectation value of the energy-momentum tensor would get very large if timelike curves become almost closed. It seems the back reaction would prevent closed timelike curves from appearing. These results strongly support the chronology protection conjecture: {ital The} {ital laws} {ital of} {ital physics} {ital do} {ital not} {ital allow} {ital the} {ital appearance} {ital of} {ital closed} {ital timelike} {ital curves}.

  17. A chronology for late prehistoric Madagascar.

    PubMed

    Burney, David A; Burney, Lida Pigott; Godfrey, Laurie R; Jungers, William L; Goodman, Steven M; Wright, Henry T; Jull, A J Timothy

    2004-01-01

    A database has been assembled with 278 age determinations for Madagascar. Materials 14C dated include pretreated sediments and plant macrofossils from cores and excavations throughout the island, and bones, teeth, or eggshells of most of the extinct megafaunal taxa, including the giant lemurs, hippopotami, and ratites. Additional measurements come from uranium-series dates on speleothems and thermoluminescence dating of pottery. Changes documented include late Pleistocene climatic events and, in the late Holocene, the apparently human-caused transformation of the environment. Multiple lines of evidence point to the earliest human presence at ca. 2300 14C yr BP (350 cal yr BC). A decline in megafauna, inferred from a drastic decrease in spores of the coprophilous fungus Sporormiella spp. in sediments at 1720+/-40 14C yr BP (230-410 cal yr AD), is followed by large increases in charcoal particles in sediment cores, beginning in the SW part of the island, and spreading to other coasts and the interior over the next millennium. The record of human occupation is initially sparse, but shows large human populations throughout the island by the beginning of the Second Millennium AD. Dating of the "subfossil" megafauna, including pygmy hippos, elephant birds, giant tortoises, and large lemurs, demonstrates that most if not all the extinct taxa were still present on the island when humans arrived. Many taxa overlapped chronologically with humans for a millennium or more. The extinct lemurs Hadropithecus stenognathus, Pachylemur insignis, Mesopropithecus pithecoides, and Daubentonia robusta, and the elephant birds Aepyornis spp. and Mullerornis spp., were still present near the end of the First Millennium AD. Palaeopropithecus ingens, Megaladapis edwardsi, and Archaeolemur sp. (cf. edwardsi) may have survived until the middle of the Second Millennium A.D. One specimen of Hippopotamus of unknown provenance dates to the period of European colonization. PMID:15288523

  18. A Chronology of Mars Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Launius, Roger D.

    1997-01-01

    This document is a chronology of the spacecrafts that were launched in the attempt to travel to Mars. Information is given on whether the mission was successful and the results are briefly outlined for the successful missions.

  19. Context, Learning, and Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gershman, Samuel J.; Blei, David M.; Niv, Yael

    2010-01-01

    A. Redish et al. (2007) proposed a reinforcement learning model of context-dependent learning and extinction in conditioning experiments, using the idea of "state classification" to categorize new observations into states. In the current article, the authors propose an interpretation of this idea in terms of normative statistical inference. They…

  20. Cognitive Processes in Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lovibond, Peter F.

    2004-01-01

    Human conditioning research shows that learning is closely related to consciously available contingency knowledge, requires attentional resources, and is influenced by language. This research suggests a cognitive model in which extinction consists of changes in contingency beliefs in long-term memory. Laboratory and clinical evidence on extinction…

  1. Chronological overlap between humans and megafauna in Sahul (Pleistocene Australia New Guinea): A review of the evidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Field, Judith; Fillios, Melanie; Wroe, Stephen

    2008-08-01

    Over 60 faunal species disappeared from the Australian continent during the Middle-Late Pleistocene. Most of these animals were large to gigantic marsupials, birds and reptiles. A terminal extinction date of 46.4 kyr has been proposed for the megafauna, with all sites containing younger fossil megafauna dismissed by some researchers because of questions over stratigraphic integrity or chronologies. The timing of the extinctions is argued to be broadly coincident with estimates of first colonization of the continent by modern humans, and explanatory extinction models involving humans have subsequently gained currency. However there is considerable evidence to suggest that in some parts of the continent, people and some species of megafauna may have co-existed well beyond 46.4 kyr. In other places, such as Tasmania and the north of the continent, there is no known record of a human-megafauna temporal overlap. A review of the available evidence indicates that only 13 species of megafauna were extant on human arrival in Australia. The archaeology of this period indicates that rather than a focus on big game hunting or 'firestick farming', it was characterized by regional variability in subsistence strategies consistent with the range of environmental zones. At the present time there is no substantive argument for a terminal extinction date of 46.4 kyr, the current evidence indicating that there is no specific time period that correlates to any single mass extinction event. On the basis of available evidence arguments for either human or climatic causation are entirely circumstantial and implicitly require acceptance of many unproven assumptions. Claims to have eliminated climate as a primary driver are premature and the recent focus on delivering 'proof' of human causation in Pleistocene faunal extinctions diverts attention from achieving a better understanding of the differential impacts of climate change and short term climatic flux in a land of environmental

  2. Modeling of growth and evaporation effects on the extinction of 1.0-micron solar radiation traversing stratospheric sulfuric acid aerosols

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yue, G. K.; Deepak, A.

    1981-01-01

    The effects of growth and evaporation of stratospheric sulfuric acid aerosols on the extinction of solar radiation traversing such an aerosol medium are reported for the case of 1.0-micron solar radiation. Modeling results show that aerosol extinction is not very sensitive to the change of ambient water vapor concentration, but is sensitive to ambient temperature changes, especially at low ambient temperatures and high ambient water vapor concentration. A clarification is given of the effects of initial aerosol size distribution and composition on the change of aerosol extinction due to growth and evaporation processes. It is shown that experiments designed to observe solar radiation extinction of aerosols may also be applied to the determination of observed changes in aerosol optical properties, environmental parameters, or the physical and optical characteristics of sulfate aerosols.

  3. Dating megafaunal extinction on the Pleistocene Darling Downs, eastern Australia: the promise and pitfalls of dating as a test of extinction hypotheses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, Gilbert J.; Webb, Gregory E.; Zhao, Jian-xin; Feng, Yue-xing; Murray, Andrew S.; Cooke, Bernard N.; Hocknull, Scott A.; Sobbe, Ian H.

    2011-04-01

    A key to understanding Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinction dynamics is knowledge of megafaunal ecological response(s) to long-term environmental perturbations. Strategically, that requires targeting fossil deposits that accumulated during glacial and interglacial intervals both before and after human arrival, with subsequent palaeoecological models underpinned by robust and reliable chronologies. Late Pleistocene vertebrate fossil localities from the Darling Downs, eastern Australia, provide stratigraphically-intact, abundant megafaunal sequences, which allows for testing of anthropogenic versus climate change megafauna extinction hypotheses. Each stratigraphic unit at site QML796, Kings Creek Catchment, was previously shown to have had similar sampling potential, and the basal units contain both small-sized taxa (e.g., land snails, frogs, bandicoots, rodents) and megafauna. Importantly, sequential faunal horizons show stepwise decrease in taxonomic diversity with the loss of some, but not all, megafauna in the geographically-small palaeocatchment. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of our intensive, multidisciplinary dating study of the deposits (>40 dates). Dating by means of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C (targeting bone, freshwater molluscs, and charcoal) and thermal ionisation mass spectrometry U/Th (targeting teeth and freshwater molluscs) do not agree with each other and, in the case of AMS 14C dating, lack internal consistency. Scanning electron microscopy and rare earth element analyses demonstrate that the dated molluscs are diagenetically altered and contain aragonite cements that incorporated secondary young C, suggesting that such dates should be regarded as minimum ages. AMS 14C dated charcoals provide ages that occur out of stratigraphic order, and cluster in the upper chronological limits of the technique (˜40-48 ka). Again, we suggest that such results should be regarded as suspicious and only minimum ages. Subsequent

  4. Experimental and Kinetic Modeling Study of Extinction and Ignition of Methyl Decanoate in Laminar Nonpremixed Flows

    SciTech Connect

    Seshadri, K; Lu, T; Herbinet, O; Humer, S; Niemann, U; Pitz, W J; Law, C K

    2008-01-09

    Methyl decanoate is a large methyl ester that can be used as a surrogate for biodiesel. In this experimental and computational study, the combustion of methyl decanoate is investigated in nonpremixed, nonuniform flows. Experiments are performed employing the counterflow configuration with a fuel stream made up of vaporized methyl decanoate and nitrogen, and an oxidizer stream of air. The mass fraction of fuel in the fuel stream is measured as a function of the strain rate at extinction, and critical conditions of ignition are measured in terms of the temperature of the oxidizer stream as a function of the strain rate. It is not possible to use a fully detailed mechanism for methyl decanoate to simulate the counterflow flames because the number of species and reactions is too large to employ with current flame codes and computer resources. Therefore a skeletal mechanism was deduced from a detailed mechanism of 8555 elementary reactions and 3036 species using 'directed relation graph' method. This skeletal mechanism has only 713 elementary reactions and 125 species. Critical conditions of ignition were calculated using this skeletal mechanism and are found to agree well with experimental data. The predicted strain rate at extinction is found to be lower than the measurements. In general, the methyl decanoate mechanism provides a realistic kinetic tool for simulation of biodiesel fuels.

  5. Impossible Extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cockell, Charles S.

    2003-03-01

    Every 225 million years the Earth, and all the life on it, completes one revolution around the Milky Way Galaxy. During this remarkable journey, life is influenced by calamitous changes. Comets and asteroids strike the surface of the Earth, stars explode, enormous volcanoes erupt, and, more recently, humans litter the planet with waste. Many animals and plants become extinct during the voyage, but humble microbes, simple creatures made of a single cell, survive this journey. This book takes a tour of the microbial world, from the coldest and deepest places on Earth to the hottest and highest, and witnesses some of the most catastrophic events that life can face. Impossible Extinction tells this remarkable story to the general reader by explaining how microbes have survived on Earth for over three billion years. Charles Cockell received his doctorate from the University of Oxford, and is currently a microbiologist with rhe Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute (SETI), based at the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, UK. His research focusses on astrobiology, life in the extremes and the human exploration of Mars. Cockell has been on expeditions to the Arctic, Antarctic, Mongolia, and in 1993 he piloted a modified insect-collecting ultra-light aircraft over the Indonesian rainforests. He is Chair of the Twenty-one Eleven Foundation for Exploration, a charity that supports expeditions that forge links between space exploration and environmentalism.

  6. Characterization and source apportionment of aerosol light extinction with a coupled model of CMB-IMPROVE in Hangzhou, Yangtze River Delta of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jiao; Zhang, Yu-fen; Feng, Yin-chang; Zheng, Xian-jue; Jiao, Li; Hong, Sheng-mao; Shen, Jian-dong; Zhu, Tan; Ding, Jing; Zhang, Qi

    2016-09-01

    To investigate the characteristics and sources of aerosol light extinction in the Yangtze River Delta of China, a campaign was carried out in Hangzhou from December 2013 to November 2014. Hourly data for air pollutants including PM2.5, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO, and aerosol optical properties including aerosol scattering coefficient and aerosol absorbing coefficient was obtained in the environmental air quality automatic monitoring station. Meteorological parameters were measured synchronously in the automated meteorology monitoring station. Additionally, around seven sets of ambient PM2.5 samples per month were collected and analyzed during the campaign. The annual mean aerosol scattering coefficient, aerosol absorbing coefficient and aerosol single scattering albedo measured in this study was 514 ± 284 Mm- 1, 35 ± 20 Mm- 1 and 94% respectively. The aerosol extinction coefficient reconstructed using the modified IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environment) formula was compared to the measured extinction coefficient. Better correlations could be found between the measured and reconstructed extinction coefficient when RH was under 90%. A coupled model of CMB (chemical mass balance) and modified IMPROVE was used to apportion the sources of aerosol light extinction in Hangzhou. Vehicle exhaust, secondary nitrate and secondary sulfate were identified as the most significant sources for aerosol light extinction, accounted for 30.2%, 24.1% and 15.8% respectively.

  7. Cerebral aneurysms: Formation, progression and developmental chronology

    PubMed Central

    Etminan, Nima; Buchholz, Bruce A.; Dreier, Rita; Bruckner, Peter; Torner, James C.; Steiger, Hans-Jakob; Hänggi, Daniel; Macdonald, R. Loch

    2015-01-01

    The prevalence of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UAIs) in the general population is up to 3%. Existing epidemiological data suggests that only a small fraction of UIAs progress towards rupture over the lifetime of an individual, but the surrogates for subsequent rupture and the natural history of UIAs are discussed very controversially at present. In case of rupture of an UIA, the case-fatality is up to 50%, which therefore continues to stimulate interest in the pathogenesis of cerebral aneurysm formation and progression. Actual data on the chronological development of cerebral aneurysm has been especially difficult to obtain and, until recently, the existing knowledge in this respect is mainly derived from animal or mathematical models or short-term observational studies. Here, we highlight the current data on cerebral aneurysm formation and progression as well as a novel approach to investigate the developmental chronology of cerebral aneurysms. PMID:24323717

  8. Deep brain stimulation, histone deacetylase inhibitors and glutamatergic drugs rescue resistance to fear extinction in a genetic mouse model.

    PubMed

    Whittle, Nigel; Schmuckermair, Claudia; Gunduz Cinar, Ozge; Hauschild, Markus; Ferraguti, Francesco; Holmes, Andrew; Singewald, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    Anxiety disorders are characterized by persistent, excessive fear. Therapeutic interventions that reverse deficits in fear extinction represent a tractable approach to treating these disorders. We previously reported that 129S1/SvImJ (S1) mice show no extinction learning following normal fear conditioning. We now demonstrate that weak fear conditioning does permit fear reduction during massed extinction training in S1 mice, but reveals specific deficiency in extinction memory consolidation/retrieval. Rescue of this impaired extinction consolidation/retrieval was achieved with d-cycloserine (N-methly-d-aspartate partial agonist) or MS-275 (histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitor), applied after extinction training. We next examined the ability of different drugs and non-pharmacological manipulations to rescue the extreme fear extinction deficit in S1 following normal fear conditioning with the ultimate aim to produce low fear levels in extinction retrieval tests. Results showed that deep brain stimulation (DBS) by applying high frequency stimulation to the nucleus accumbens (ventral striatum) during extinction training, indeed significantly reduced fear during extinction retrieval compared to sham stimulation controls. Rescue of both impaired extinction acquisition and deficient extinction consolidation/retrieval was achieved with prior extinction training administration of valproic acid (a GABAergic enhancer and HDAC inhibitor) or AMN082 [metabotropic glutamate receptor 7 (mGlu7) agonist], while MS-275 or PEPA (AMPA receptor potentiator) failed to affect extinction acquisition in S1 mice. Collectively, these data identify potential beneficial effects of DBS and various drug treatments, including those with HDAC inhibiting or mGlu7 agonism properties, as adjuncts to overcome treatment resistance in exposure-based therapies. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled 'Cognitive Enhancers'. PMID:22722028

  9. Deep brain stimulation, histone deacetylase inhibitors and glutamatergic drugs rescue resistance to fear extinction in a genetic mouse model

    PubMed Central

    Whittle, Nigel; Schmuckermair, Claudia; Gunduz Cinar, Ozge; Hauschild, Markus; Ferraguti, Francesco; Holmes, Andrew; Singewald, Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    Anxiety disorders are characterized by persistent, excessive fear. Therapeutic interventions that reverse deficits in fear extinction represent a tractable approach to treating these disorders. We previously reported that 129S1/SvImJ (S1) mice show no extinction learning following normal fear conditioning. We now demonstrate that weak fear conditioning does permit fear reduction during massed extinction training in S1 mice, but reveals specific deficiency in extinction memory consolidation/retrieval. Rescue of this impaired extinction consolidation/retrieval was achieved with d-cycloserine (N-methly-d-aspartate partial agonist) or MS-275 (histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitor), applied after extinction training. We next examined the ability of different drugs and non-pharmacological manipulations to rescue the extreme fear extinction deficit in S1 following normal fear conditioning with the ultimate aim to produce low fear levels in extinction retrieval tests. Results showed that deep brain stimulation (DBS) by applying high frequency stimulation to the nucleus accumbens (ventral striatum) during extinction training, indeed significantly reduced fear during extinction retrieval compared to sham stimulation controls. Rescue of both impaired extinction acquisition and deficient extinction consolidation/retrieval was achieved with prior extinction training administration of valproic acid (a GABAergic enhancer and HDAC inhibitor) or AMN082 [metabotropic glutamate receptor 7 (mGlu7) agonist], while MS-275 or PEPA (AMPA receptor potentiator) failed to affect extinction acquisition in S1 mice. Collectively, these data identify potential beneficial effects of DBS and various drug treatments, including those with HDAC inhibiting or mGlu7 agonism properties, as adjuncts to overcome treatment resistance in exposure-based therapies. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled ‘Cognitive Enhancers’. PMID:22722028

  10. Relative chronology of Martian volcanoes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Landheim, R.; Barlow, N. G.

    1991-01-01

    Impact cratering is one of the major geological processes that has affected the Martian surface throughout the planet's history. The frequency of craters within particular size ranges provides information about the formation ages and obliterative episodes of Martian geologic units. The Barlow chronology was extended by measuring small craters on the volcanoes and a number of standard terrain units. Inclusions of smaller craters in units previously analyzed by Barlow allowed for a more direct comparison between the size-frequency distribution data for volcanoes and established chronology. During this study, 11,486 craters were mapped and identified in the 1.5 to 8 km diameter range in selected regions of Mars. The results are summarized in this three page report and give a more precise estimate of the relative chronology of the Martian volcanoes. Also, the results of this study lend further support to the increasing evidence that volcanism has been a dominant geologic force throughout Martian history.

  11. Discreteness induced extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    dos Santos, Renato Vieira; da Silva, Linaena Méricy

    2015-11-01

    Two simple models based on ecological problems are discussed from the point of view of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. It is shown how discrepant may be the results of the models that include spatial distribution with discrete interactions when compared with the continuous analogous models. In the continuous case we have, under certain circumstances, the population explosion. When we take into account the finiteness of the population, we get the opposite result, extinction. We will analyze how these results depend on the dimension d of the space and describe the phenomenon of the "Discreteness Inducing Extinction" (DIE). The results are interpreted in the context of the "paradox of sex", an old problem of evolutionary biology.

  12. Time for Chronology? Ideas for Developing Chronological Understanding

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dawson, Ian

    2004-01-01

    The successful study of history requires many things, but few would contest that an understanding of time is one of them. Quite what we mean by "an understanding of time" needs clarification, however. Chronological understanding is one feature. But it is not simply an ability to place events in order that drives our teaching (although…

  13. A stochastic model for transmission, extinction and outbreak of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in cattle as affected by ambient temperature and cleaning practices.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xueying; Gautam, Raju; Pinedo, Pablo J; Allen, Linda J S; Ivanek, Renata

    2014-08-01

    Many infectious agents transmitting through a contaminated environment are able to persist in the environment depending on the temperature and sanitation determined rates of their replication and clearance, respectively. There is a need to elucidate the effect of these factors on the infection transmission dynamics in terms of infection outbreaks and extinction while accounting for the random nature of the process. Also, it is important to distinguish between the true and apparent extinction, where the former means pathogen extinction in both the host and the environment while the latter means extinction only in the host population. This study proposes a stochastic-differential equation model as an approximation to a Markov jump process model, using Escherichia coli O157:H7 in cattle as a model system. In the model, the host population infection dynamics are described using the standard susceptible-infected-susceptible framework, and the E. coli O157:H7 population in the environment is represented by an additional variable. The backward Kolmogorov equations that determine the probability distribution and the expectation of the first passage time are provided in a general setting. The outbreak and apparent extinction of infection are investigated by numerically solving the Kolmogorov equations for the probability density function of the associated process and the expectation of the associated stopping time. The results provide insight into E. coli O157:H7 transmission and apparent extinction, and suggest ways for controlling the spread of infection in a cattle herd. Specifically, this study highlights the importance of ambient temperature and sanitation, especially during summer. PMID:23864122

  14. Comparison of one-parameter and two-parameter models of aerosol extinction for experimental data of the arid zone of Kazakhstan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shchelkanov, N. N.

    2015-11-01

    Comparison of four aerosol models is carried out: two one-parameter models for a ground layer of the arid zone of Kazakhstan, two-parameter model for horizontal paths and two-parameter model for horizontal and slant paths. It is shown that the models obtained using the new methods for construction of linear regression and separation of the components allow physically correct retrieval of not only the values of the aerosol extinction coefficients, but also their root mean square deviations.

  15. The extinction differential induced virulence macroevolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Feng; Xu, Liufang; Wang, Jin

    2014-04-01

    We apply the potential-flux landscape theory to deal with the large fluctuation induced extinction phenomena. We quantify the most probable extinction pathway on the landscape and measure the extinction risk by the landscape topography. In this Letter, we investigate the disease extinction through an epidemic model described by a set of chemical reaction. We found the virulence-differential-dependent symbioses between mother and daughter pathogen species: mutualism and parasitism. The symbioses, whether mutualism or parasitism, benefit the higher virulence species. This implies that speciation towards lower virulence is an effective strategy for a pathogen species to reduce its extinction risk.

  16. Astronautics and aeronautics, 1977: A chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ritchie, E. H.

    1986-01-01

    This publication is a chronology of events during the year 1977 in the fields of aeronautical and space research, development, activity, and policy. It includes appendixes, an index, and illustrations. Chronological entries list sources for further inquiry.

  17. Phase function, backscatter, extinction, and absorption for standard radiation atmosphere and El Chichon aerosol models at visible and near-infrared wavelengths

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whitlock, C. H.; Suttles, J. T.; Lecroy, S. R.

    1985-01-01

    Tabular values of phase function, Legendre polynominal coefficients, 180 deg backscatter, and extinction cross section are given for eight wavelengths in the atmospheric windows between 0.4 and 2.2 microns. Also included are single scattering albedo, asymmetry factor, and refractive indices. These values are based on Mie theory calculations for the standard rediation atmospheres (continental, maritime, urban, unperturbed stratospheric, volcanic, upper atmospheric, soot, oceanic, dust, and water-soluble) assest measured volcanic aerosols at several time intervals following the El Chichon eruption. Comparisons of extinction to 180 deg backscatter for different aerosol models are presented and related to lidar data.

  18. Test the Ocean Acidification Hypothesis during the End-Permian Mass Extinction Using an Earth System Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, Y.; Kump, L.; Ridgwell, A. J.; Meyer, K. M.

    2012-12-01

    The end-Permian is associated with a 3-5‰ carbon isotope excursion in the ocean-atmosphere system within 20 kyr, which could be explained by a rapid and large amount of greenhouse gas emission. This leads to the hypothesis of ocean acidification as a primary driver for the end-Permian mass extinction event. In order to test this hypothesis, we conducted a series of experiments varying initial and boundary conditions using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (GENIE: http://www.genie.ac.uk/). The late Permian ocean has been proposed as a "Neritan" ocean due to lack of pelagic carbonate production. We test the ocean buffering capacity to rapid CO2 emission by turning on the pelagic carbonate factory to result in a "Cretan" ocean similar to today. Due to the uncertainties on reconstructed paleo-pCO2 records, we test the model sensitivity by varying the initial pCO2, ranging from 1× PAL (preindustrial atmospheric level), 5× PAL, 10× PAL to 20× PAL. Ocean saturation state with respect to calcite (aragonite) in the Late Permian is also a key uncertainty, estimates have been varying from Ωcalcite =2.5 to supersaturated state (Ωcalcite =10) (Ridgwell 2005; Montenegro et al. 2011). We test this key uncertainty in both the "Neritan" and "Cretan" ocean cases. GENIE was spun up for >200 kyr to allow sedimentary equilibrium to ensure the weathering input balance the sediment output. Temperature-dependent silicate weathering feedback is also turned on in the model as a driver of the long-term draw down of atmospheric pCO2. We then invert the model by forcing the atmosphere δ13C to track our prescribed carbon isotopes derived from Meishan section in South China and Gartnerkofel-1 core in Alps, Austria at each time step. The two carbon isotope records are statistically treated to remove the noise that could result in unrealistic fluctuations in the derivatives of δ13C. Due to the uncertainties in the age model applied on these two records and different

  19. Extinction, Relapse, and Behavioral Momentum

    PubMed Central

    Podlesnik, Christopher A.; Shahan, Timothy A.

    2010-01-01

    Previous experiments on behavioral momentum have shown that relative resistance to extinction of operant behavior in the presence of a discriminative stimulus depends upon the baseline rate or magnitude of reinforcement associated with that stimulus (i.e., the Pavlovian stimulus-reinforcer relation). Recently, we have shown that relapse of operant behavior in reinstatement, resurgence, and context renewal preparations also is a function of baseline stimulus-reinforcer relations. In this paper we present new data examining the role of baseline stimulus-reinforcer relations on resistance to extinction and relapse using a variety of baseline training conditions and relapse operations. Furthermore, we evaluate the adequacy of a behavioral-momentum based model in accounting for the results. The model suggests that relapse occurs as a result of a decrease in the disruptive impact of extinction precipitated by a change in circumstances associated with extinction, and that the degree of relapse is a function of the pre-extinction baseline Pavlovian stimulus-reinforcer relation. Across experiments, relative resistance to extinction and relapse were greater in the presence of stimuli associated with more favorable conditions of reinforcement and were positively related to one another. In addition, the model did a good job in accounting for these effects. Thus, behavioral momentum theory may provide a useful quantitative approach for characterizing how differential reinforcement conditions contribute to relapse of operant behavior. PMID:20152889

  20. Extinction, relapse, and behavioral momentum.

    PubMed

    Podlesnik, Christopher A; Shahan, Timothy A

    2010-05-01

    Previous experiments on behavioral momentum have shown that relative resistance to extinction of operant behavior in the presence of a discriminative stimulus depends upon the baseline rate or magnitude of reinforcement associated with that stimulus (i.e., the Pavlovian stimulus-reinforcer relation). Recently, we have shown that relapse of operant behavior in reinstatement, resurgence, and context renewal preparations also is a function of baseline stimulus-reinforcer relations. In this paper we present new data examining the role of baseline stimulus-reinforcer relations on resistance to extinction and relapse using a variety of baseline training conditions and relapse operations. Furthermore, we evaluate the adequacy of a behavioral momentum based model in accounting for the results. The model suggests that relapse occurs as a result of a decrease in the disruptive impact of extinction precipitated by a change in circumstances associated with extinction, and that the degree of relapse is a function of the pre-extinction baseline Pavlovian stimulus-reinforcer relation. Across experiments, relative resistance to extinction and relapse were greater in the presence of stimuli associated with more favorable conditions of reinforcement and were positively related to one another. In addition, the model did a good job in accounting for these effects. Thus, behavioral momentum theory may provide a useful quantitative approach for characterizing how differential reinforcement conditions contribute to relapse of operant behavior. PMID:20152889

  1. Estimating taxonomic diversity, extinction rates, and speciation rates from fossil data using capture-recapture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Pollock, K.H.

    1983-01-01

    Capture-recapture models can be used to estimate parameters of interest from paleobiological data when encouter probabilities are unknown and variable over time. These models also permit estimation of sampling variances and goodness-of-fit tests are available for assessing the fit of data to most models. The authors describe capture-recapture models which should be useful in paleobiological analyses and discuss the assumptions which underlie them. They illustrate these models with examples and discuss aspects of study design.

  2. Combined Laboratory and Modeling Study of the IR Extinction and Visible Light Scattering Properties of Mineral Dust Aerosol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexander, J. M.; Laskina, O.; Meland, B. S.; Parker, A.; Grassian, V. H.; Young, M. A.; Kleiber, P.

    2011-12-01

    Mineral dust aerosol plays a significant role in the Earth's climate system through the scattering and absorption of both incoming solar radiation in the UV-Visible range and outgoing IR terrestrial radiation. Atmospheric dust particles also serve as sites for cloud nucleation indirectly affecting albedo, and as reactive surfaces for heterogeneous chemistry. Correctly modeling the direct and indirect effects of dust requires accurate information about dust loading, dust composition, size, and shape (CSS) distributions, and aerosol optical (scattering and absorption) properties. The optical properties, however, are strongly dependent on both particle shape and composition, and mineral dust aerosol samples are often complex, inhomogeneous mixtures of particles that may be highly irregular in shape. In this work IR extinction and visible light scattering and polarization profiles are measured for a series of authentic and model dust mixtures including samples of Iowa loess, Arizona road dust, and diatomaceous earth. Laboratory measurements also include particle CSS distributions determined through real-time particle sizing, and various ex situ characterization methods. The experimental data are compared with T-Matrix model simulations based on the measured particle size distributions. Different methods used to infer particle shape and composition distributions are explored and evaluated.

  3. Flood basalt eruptions, comet showers, and mass extinction events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rampino, Michael R.; Stothers, Richard B.

    1988-01-01

    A chronology of initiation dates of the major continental flood basalt episodes has been established from compilation of published K-Ar and Ar-Ar ages of basaltic flows and related basic intrusions. The dating is therefore independent of the biostratigraphic and paleomagnetic time scales, and the estimated errors of the inititation dates are approximately + or - 4 pct. There are 11 distinct episodes of continental flood basalts known during the past 250 Myr. The data show that flood basalt episodes are generally relatively brief geologic events, with intermittent eruptions during peak output periods lasting ony 2 to 3 Myr or less. Statistical analyses suggest that these episodes may have occurred quasi-periodically with a mean cycle time of 32 + or - 1 Myr. The initiation dates of the flood basalts are close to the estimated dates of marine mass extinctions and impact-crater clusters. Although a purely internal forcing might be argued for the flood basalt volcanism, quasi-periodic comet impacts may be the trigger for both the flood basalts and the extinctions. Impact cratering models suggest that large-body impactors lead to deep initial cratering, and therefore may cause mantle disturbances and initiate mantle plume activity. The flood basalt episodes commonly mark the initiation or jump of a mantle hotspot, and are often followed by continental rifting and separation. Evidence from dynamical studies of impacts, occurrences of craters and hotspots, and the geochemistry of boundary layers is synthesized to provide a possible model of impact-generated volcanism. Flood basalt eruptions may themselves have severe effects on climate, and possibly on life. Impacts might, as a result, have led to mass extinctions through direct atmospheric disturbances, and/or indirectly through prolonged flood basalt volcanism.

  4. Comparing records with related chronologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Albert, Paul; Kearney, Rebecca; Staff, Richard A.

    2016-04-01

    In order to integrate ice, terrestrial and marine records, it is necessary to deal with records on different timescales. These timescales can be grouped into those that use a common fundamental chronometer (such as Uranium-Thorium dating or Radiocarbon) and can also be related to one another where we have chronological tie points such as tephra horizons. More generally we can, through a number of different methodologies, derive relationships between different timescales. A good example of this is the use of cosmogenic isotope production, specifically 10Be and 14C to relate the calibrated radiocarbon timescale to that of the Greenland ice cores. The relationships between different timescales can be mathematically expressed in terms of time-transfer functions. This formalism allows any related record to be considered against any linked timescale with an appropriate associated uncertainty. The prototype INTIMATE chronological database allows records to be viewed and compared in this way and this is now being further developed, both to include a wider range of records and also to provide better connectivity to other databases and chronological tools. These developments will also include new ways to use tephra tie-points to constrain the relationship between timescales directly, without needing to remodel each associated timescale. The database as it stands allows data for particular timeframes to be recalled and plotted against any timescale, or exported in spreadsheet format. New functionality will be added to allow users to work with their own data in a private space and then to publish it when it has been through the peer-review publication process. In order to make the data easier to use for other further analysis and plotting, and with data from other sources, the database will also act as a server to deliver data in a JSON format. The aim of this work is to make the comparison of integrated data much easier for researchers and to ensure that good practice in

  5. Cosmic strings and chronology protection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, James D. E.

    1993-03-01

    A space consisting of two rapidly moving cosmic strings has recently been constructed by Gott that contains closed timelike curves. The global structure of this space is analyzed and it is found that, away from the strings, the space is identical to a generalized Misner space. The vacuum expectation value of the energy-momentum tensor for a conformally coupled scalar field is calculated on this generalized Misner space. It is found to diverge very weakly on the chronology horizon, but more strongly on the polarized hypersurfaces. The divergence on the polarized hypersurfaces is strong enough that when the proper geodesic interval around any polarized hypersurface is of the order of the Planck length squared, the perturbation to the metric caused by the back reaction will be of the order one. Thus we expect the structure of the space will be radically altered by the back reaction before quantum gravitational effects become important. This suggests that Hawking's ``chronology protection conjecture'' holds for spaces with a noncompactly generated chronology horizon.

  6. Radiocarbon dates on bones of extinct birds from Hawaii

    SciTech Connect

    James, H.F.; Stafford, T.W. Jr.; Steadman, D.W.; Olson, S.L.; Martin, P.S.; Jull, A.J.; McCoy, P.C.

    1987-04-01

    Bones from a stratified sedimentary deposit in the Puu Naio Cave site on Maui, Hawaiian Islands, reveal the late Holocene extinction of 19 species of birds. The age of the sediment and associated fauna was determined by direct radiocarbon dating (tandem particle accelerator-mass spectrometer; TAMS) of amino acids extracted from bones weighing as little as 450 mg. The /sup 14/C dates indicate that sediment has been accumulating in the lava tube for at least the last 7750 years, a suitable time frame for testing the hypothesis that Holocene extinction on islands began after human colonization. Despite growing evidence that a worldwide wave of extinctions coincided with human colonization of oceanic islands, little radiometric data have been available to date the extinction of most small fossil vertebrates on islands. The TAMS technique of dating purified collagen from the bones of small vertebrates could lead to vastly improved chronologies of extinction for oceanic islands where catastrophic mid- to late-Holocene extinction is expected or known to have occurred. Chronologies derived from nonarcheological sites that show continuous sedimentation, such as the Puu Naio Cave deposit, may also yield key evidence on the timing of earliest human settlement of Oceania.

  7. MEST- avoid next extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Dayong

    2012-11-01

    Asteroid 2011 AG5 will impact on Earth in 2040. (See Donald K. Yoemans, ``Asteroid 2011 AG5 - A Reality Check,'' NASA-JPL, 2012) In 2011, The author say: the dark hole will take the dark comet to impact our solar system in 20 years, and give a systemic model between the sun and its companion-dark hole to explain why were there periodicity mass extinction on earth. (see Dayong Cao, BAPS.2011.CAL.C1.7, BAPS.2011.DFD.LA.24, BAPS.2012.APR.K1.78 and BAPS.2011.APR.K1.17) The dark Asteroid 2011 AG5 (as a dark comet) is made of the dark matter which has a space-time (as frequence-amplitude square) center- a different systemic model from solar systemic model. It can asborb the space-time and wave. So it is ``dark.'' When many dark matters hit on our earth, they can break our atom structure and our genetic code to trigger the Mass Extinction. In our experiments, consciousness can change the systematic model and code by a life-informational technology. So it can change the output signals of the solar cell. (see Dayong Cao, BAPS.2011.MAR.C1.286 and BAPS.2012.MAR.P33.14) So we will develop the genetic code of lives to evolution and sublimation, will use the dark matter to change the systemic model between dark hole and sun and will avoid next extinction.

  8. Mars chronology: assessing techniques for quantifying surficial processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doran, Peter T.; Clifford, Stephen M.; Forman, Steven L.; Nyquist, Larry; Papanastassiou, Dimitri A.; Stewart, Brian W.; Sturchio, Neil C.; Swindle, Timothy D.; Cerling, Thure; Kargel, Jeff

    2004-01-01

    Currently, the absolute chronology of Martian rocks, deposits and events is based mainly on crater counting and remains highly imprecise with epoch boundary uncertainties in excess of 2 billion years. Answers to key questions concerning the comparative origin and evolution of Mars and Earth will not be forthcoming without a rigid Martian chronology, enabling the construction of a time scale comparable to Earth's. Priorities for exploration include calibration of the cratering rate, dating major volcanic and fluvial events and establishing chronology of the polar layered deposits. If extinct andor extant life is discovered, the chronology of the biosphere will be of paramount importance. Many radiometric and cosmogenic techniques applicable on Earth and the Moon will apply to Mars after certain baselines (e.g. composition of the atmosphere, trace species, chemical and physical characteristics of Martian dust) are established. The high radiation regime may pose a problem for dosimetry-based techniques (e.g. luminescence). The unique isotopic composition of nitrogen in the Martian atmosphere may permit a Mars-specific chronometer for tracing the time-evolution of the atmosphere and of lithic phases with trapped atmospheric gases. Other Mars-specific chronometers include measurement of gas fluxes and accumulation of platinum group elements (PGE) in the regolith. Putting collected samples into geologic context is deemed essential, as is using multiple techniques on multiple samples. If in situ measurements are restricted to a single technique it must be shown to give consistent results on multiple samples, but in all cases, using two or more techniques (e.g. on the same lander) will reduce error. While there is no question that returned samples will yield the best ages, in situ techniques have the potential to be flown on multiple missions providing a larger data set and broader context in which to place the more accurate dates.

  9. Refining reproductive parameters for modelling sustainability and extinction in hunted primate populations in the Amazon.

    PubMed

    Bowler, Mark; Anderson, Matt; Montes, Daniel; Pérez, Pedro; Mayor, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Primates are frequently hunted in Amazonia. Assessing the sustainability of hunting is essential to conservation planning. The most-used sustainability model, the 'Production Model', and more recent spatial models, rely on basic reproductive parameters for accuracy. These parameters are often crudely estimated. To date, parameters used for the Amazon's most-hunted primate, the woolly monkey (Lagothrix spp.), come from captive populations in the 1960s, when captive births were rare. Furthermore, woolly monkeys have since been split into five species. We provide reproductive parameters calculated by examining the reproductive organs of female Poeppig's woolly monkeys (Lagothrix poeppigii), collected by hunters as part of their normal subsistence activity. Production was 0.48-0.54 young per female per year, and an interbirth interval of 22.3 to 25.2 months, similar to parameters from captive populations. However, breeding was seasonal, which imposes limits on the maximum reproductive rate attainable. We recommend the use of spatial models over the Production Model, since they are less sensitive to error in estimated reproductive rates. Further refinements to reproductive parameters are needed for most primate taxa. Methods like ours verify the suitability of captive reproductive rates for sustainability analysis and population modelling for populations under differing conditions of hunting pressure and seasonality. Without such research, population modelling is based largely on guesswork. PMID:24714614

  10. Interstellar Extinction Toward Young Stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McJunkin, Matthew; France, Kevin

    2015-01-01

    We present work on a molecular hydrogen (H2) fluorescence model to characterize the ultraviolet (UV) extinction curve along the line of sight towards young stars with circumstellar disks. Stellar UV radiation plays a strong role in heating the disk gas and driving chemical reactions, so it is important to measure the UV extinction curve in order to reconstruct the intrinsic stellar UV flux impacting the disk. To measure the extinction, we compare modeled H2 fluorescence spectra to observed H2 lines. Lyman-alpha radiation from the stars pumps electronic transitions of H2 in the disk, and we model the flux that is re-emitted through the subsequent fluorescent cascade. We then extract the extinction along the line-of-sight over the 1100-1700 Angstrom wavelength region from the difference between the modeled H2 fluorescence and the HST-COS data. The shape of the extinction curve allows us to characterize the dust grain distribution in the intervening material as well as to recover the intrinsic spectral energy distribution of the stars over a wide wavelength range.

  11. Mass extinctions vs. uniformitarianism in biological evolution

    SciTech Connect

    Bak, P.; Paczuski, M.

    1995-12-31

    It is usually believed that Darwin`s theory leads to a smooth gradual evolution, so that mass extinctions must be caused by external shocks. However, it has recently been argued that mass extinctions arise from the intrinsic dynamics of Darwinian evolution. Species become extinct when swept by intermittent avalanches propagating through the global ecology. These ideas are made concrete through studies of simple mathematical models of co-evolving species. The models exhibit self-organized criticality and describe some general features of the extinction pattern in the fossil record.

  12. Refining Reproductive Parameters for Modelling Sustainability and Extinction in Hunted Primate Populations in the Amazon

    PubMed Central

    Bowler, Mark; Anderson, Matt; Montes, Daniel; Pérez, Pedro; Mayor, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Primates are frequently hunted in Amazonia. Assessing the sustainability of hunting is essential to conservation planning. The most-used sustainability model, the ‘Production Model’, and more recent spatial models, rely on basic reproductive parameters for accuracy. These parameters are often crudely estimated. To date, parameters used for the Amazon’s most-hunted primate, the woolly monkey (Lagothrix spp.), come from captive populations in the 1960s, when captive births were rare. Furthermore, woolly monkeys have since been split into five species. We provide reproductive parameters calculated by examining the reproductive organs of female Poeppig’s woolly monkeys (Lagothrix poeppigii), collected by hunters as part of their normal subsistence activity. Production was 0.48–0.54 young per female per year, and an interbirth interval of 22.3 to 25.2 months, similar to parameters from captive populations. However, breeding was seasonal, which imposes limits on the maximum reproductive rate attainable. We recommend the use of spatial models over the Production Model, since they are less sensitive to error in estimated reproductive rates. Further refinements to reproductive parameters are needed for most primate taxa. Methods like ours verify the suitability of captive reproductive rates for sustainability analysis and population modelling for populations under differing conditions of hunting pressure and seasonality. Without such research, population modelling is based largely on guesswork. PMID:24714614

  13. S-R Associations, Their Extinction, and Recovery in an Animal Model of Anxiety: A New Associative Account of Phobias Without Recall of Original Trauma

    PubMed Central

    Laborda, Mario A.; Miller, Ralph R.

    2012-01-01

    Associative accounts of the etiology of phobias have been criticized because of numerous cases of phobias in which the client does not remember a relevant traumatic event (i.e., Pavlovian conditioning trial), instructions, or vicarious experience with the phobic object. In three lick suppression experiments with rats as subjects, we modeled an associative account of such fears. Experiment 1 assessed stimulus-response (S-R) associations in first-order fear conditioning. After behaviorally complete devaluation of the unconditioned stimulus, the target stimulus still produced strong conditioned responses, suggesting that an S-R association had been formed and that this association was not significantly affected when the outcome was devalued through unsignaled presentations of the unconditioned stimulus. Experiments 2 and 3 examined extinction and recovery of S-R associations. Experiment 2 showed that extinguished S-R associations returned when testing occurred outside of the extinction context (i.e., renewal) and Experiment 3 found that a long delay between extinction and testing also produced a return of the extinguished S-R associations (i.e., spontaneous recovery). These experiments suggest that fears for which people cannot recall a cause are explicable in an associative framework, and indicate that those fears are susceptible to relapse after extinction treatment just like stimulus-outcome (S-O) associations. PMID:21496503

  14. S-R associations, their extinction, and recovery in an animal model of anxiety: a new associative account of phobias without recall of original trauma.

    PubMed

    Laborda, Mario A; Miller, Ralph R

    2011-06-01

    Associative accounts of the etiology of phobias have been criticized because of numerous cases of phobias in which the client does not remember a relevant traumatic event (i.e., Pavlovian conditioning trial), instructions, or vicarious experience with the phobic object. In three lick suppression experiments with rats as subjects, we modeled an associative account of such fears. Experiment 1 assessed stimulus-response (S-R) associations in first-order fear conditioning. After behaviorally complete devaluation of the unconditioned stimulus, the target stimulus still produced strong conditioned responses, suggesting that an S-R association had been formed and that this association was not significantly affected when the outcome was devalued through unsignaled presentations of the unconditioned stimulus. Experiments 2 and 3 examined extinction and recovery of S-R associations. Experiment 2 showed that extinguished S-R associations returned when testing occurred outside of the extinction context (i.e., renewal) and Experiment 3 found that a long delay between extinction and testing also produced a return of the extinguished S-R associations (i.e., spontaneous recovery). These experiments suggest that fears for which people cannot recall a cause are explicable in an associative framework, and indicate that those fears are susceptible to relapse after extinction treatment just like stimulus-outcome (S-O) associations. PMID:21496503

  15. An ecocultural model predicts Neanderthal extinction through competition with modern humans.

    PubMed

    Gilpin, William; Feldman, Marcus W; Aoki, Kenichi

    2016-02-23

    Archaeologists argue that the replacement of Neanderthals by modern humans was driven by interspecific competition due to a difference in culture level. To assess the cogency of this argument, we construct and analyze an interspecific cultural competition model based on the Lotka-Volterra model, which is widely used in ecology, but which incorporates the culture level of a species as a variable interacting with population size. We investigate the conditions under which a difference in culture level between cognitively equivalent species, or alternatively a difference in underlying learning ability, may produce competitive exclusion of a comparatively (although not absolutely) large local Neanderthal population by an initially smaller modern human population. We find, in particular, that this competitive exclusion is more likely to occur when population growth occurs on a shorter timescale than cultural change, or when the competition coefficients of the Lotka-Volterra model depend on the difference in the culture levels of the interacting species. PMID:26831111

  16. An ecocultural model predicts Neanderthal extinction through competition with modern humans

    PubMed Central

    Gilpin, William; Feldman, Marcus W.; Aoki, Kenichi

    2016-01-01

    Archaeologists argue that the replacement of Neanderthals by modern humans was driven by interspecific competition due to a difference in culture level. To assess the cogency of this argument, we construct and analyze an interspecific cultural competition model based on the Lotka−Volterra model, which is widely used in ecology, but which incorporates the culture level of a species as a variable interacting with population size. We investigate the conditions under which a difference in culture level between cognitively equivalent species, or alternatively a difference in underlying learning ability, may produce competitive exclusion of a comparatively (although not absolutely) large local Neanderthal population by an initially smaller modern human population. We find, in particular, that this competitive exclusion is more likely to occur when population growth occurs on a shorter timescale than cultural change, or when the competition coefficients of the Lotka−Volterra model depend on the difference in the culture levels of the interacting species. PMID:26831111

  17. Thermal Transgressions and Phanerozoic Extinctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Worsley, T. R.; Kidder, D. L.

    2007-12-01

    A number of significant Phanerozoic extinctions are associated with marine transgressions that were probably driven by rapid ocean warming. The conditions associated with what we call thermal transgressions are extremely stressful to life on Earth. The Earth system setting associated with end-Permian extinction exemplifies an end-member case of our model. The conditions favoring extreme warmth and sea-level increases driven by thermal expansion are also conducive to changes in ocean circulation that foster widespread anoxia and sulfidic subsurface ocean waters. Equable climates are characterized by reduced wind shear and weak surface ocean circulation. Late Permian and Early Triassic thermohaline circulation differs considerably from today's world, with minimal polar sinking and intensified mid-latitude sinking that delivers sulfate from shallow evaporative areas to deeper water where it is reduced to sulfide. Reduced nutrient input to oceans from land at many of the extinction intervals results from diminished silicate weathering and weakened delivery of iron via eolian dust. The falloff in iron-bearing dust leads to minimal nitrate production, weakening food webs and rendering faunas and floras more susceptible to extinction when stressed. Factors such as heat, anoxia, ocean acidification, hypercapnia, and hydrogen sulfide poisoning would significantly affect these biotas. Intervals of tectonic quiescence set up preconditions favoring extinctions. Reductions in chemical silicate weathering lead to carbon dioxide buildup, oxygen drawdown, nutrient depletion, wind and ocean current abatement, long-term global warming, and ocean acidification. The effects of extinction triggers such as large igneous provinces, bolide impacts, and episodes of sudden methane release are more potent against the backdrop of our proposed preconditions. Extinctions that have characteristics we call for in the thermal transgressions include the Early Cambrian Sinsk event, as well as

  18. Extinct radioactivities - A three-phase mixing model. [for early solar system abundances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clayton, D. D.

    1983-01-01

    A new class of models is advanced for interpreting the relationship of radioactive abundances in the early solar system to their average concentration in the interstellar medium. The model assumes that fresh radioactivities are ejected from supernovae into the hot interstellar medium, and that the time scales for changes of phase into molecular clouds determine how much survives for formation therein of the solar system. A more realistic and physically motivated understanding of the low observed concentrations of I-129, Pu-244, and Pd-107 may result.

  19. Aerosol extinction measurements with CO2-lidar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hagard, Arne; Persson, Rolf

    1992-01-01

    With the aim to develop a model for infrared extinction due to aerosols in slant paths in the lower atmosphere we perform measurements with a CO2-lidar. Earlier measurements with a transmissometer along horizontal paths have been used to develop relations between aerosol extinction and meteorological parameters. With the lidar measurements we hope to develop corresponding relations for altitude profiles of the aerosol extinction in the infrared. An important application is prediction of detection range for infrared imaging systems.

  20. Evolution on trees: A brief review about the extinctions of species, and the case of genocide in a Darwinistic Punctuated Equilibrium Evolution Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ausloos, M.; Kramer, M.; Vandewalle, N.

    1999-12-01

    Numerical and theoretical investigations of species evolution in presence of extinction rules are recalled in the framework of punctuated equilibrium evolution models. Previous results, on the Bak-Sneppen model are mentioned together with extensions taking into account a variable number of species. Conditions for limited growth due to species interactions, external fields, or intrinsic population density conditions have already been considered. An original genocide model is presented as a step towards describing effects due to the extinction of species. Critical exponents for (i) the avalanche distribution, (ii) the steady-state approach, and (iii) the tree size are given. A mean-field approximation is shown to be quite accurate for describing the critical state. The screening of species from the evolution process is not numerically studied.

  1. A Model of Amygdala-Hippocampal-Prefrontal Interaction in Fear Conditioning and Extinction in Animals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moustafa, Ahmed A.; Gilbertson, Mark W.; Orr, Scott P.; Herzallah, Mohammad M.; Servatius, Richard J.; Myers, Catherine E.

    2013-01-01

    Empirical research has shown that the amygdala, hippocampus, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) are involved in fear conditioning. However, the functional contribution of each brain area and the nature of their interactions are not clearly understood. Here, we extend existing neural network models of the functional roles of the hippocampus…

  2. VizieR Online Data Catalog: Modeling Galactic extinction with dust and PAH (Mulas+, 2013)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulas, G.; Zonca, A.; Casu, S.; Cecchi-Pestellini, C.

    2013-08-01

    The model being used here includes two main components: a population of silicate core, carbon-coated dust grains, and a "molecular" component of free-flying PAHs. The descriptions of these components are detailed in section 2. (3 data files).

  3. Late Pleistocene and Holocene mammal extinctions on continental Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faith, J. Tyler

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the cause of late Quaternary mammal extinctions is the subject of intense debate spanning the fields of archeology and paleontology. In the global context, the losses on continental Africa have received little attention and are poorly understood. This study aims to inspire new discussion of African extinctions through a review of the extinct species and the chronology and possible causes of those extinctions. There are at least 24 large mammal (> 5 kg) species known to have disappeared from continental Africa during the late Pleistocene or Holocene, indicating a much greater taxonomic breadth than previously recognized. Among the better sampled taxa, these losses are restricted to the terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene, between 13,000 and 6000 yrs ago. The African extinctions preferentially affected species that are grazers or prefer grasslands. Where good terrestrial paleoenvironmental records are present, extinctions are associated with changes in the availability, productivity, or structure of grassland habitats, suggesting that environmental changes played a decisive role in the losses. In the broader evolutionary context, these extinctions represent recent examples of selective taxonomic winnowing characterized by the loss of grassland specialists and the establishment of large mammal communities composed of more ecologically flexible taxa over the last million years. There is little reason to believe that humans played an important role in African extinctions.

  4. Increasing the persistence of a heterogeneous behavior chain: Studies of extinction in a rat model of search behavior of working dogs.

    PubMed

    Thrailkill, Eric A; Kacelnik, Alex; Porritt, Fay; Bouton, Mark E

    2016-08-01

    Dogs trained to search for contraband perform a chain of behavior in which they first search for a target and then make a separate response that indicates to the trainer that they have found one. The dogs often conduct multiple searches without encountering a target and receiving the reinforcer (i.e., no contraband is present). Understanding extinction (i.e., the decline in work rate when reinforcers are no longer encountered) may assist in training dogs to work in conditions where targets are rare. We therefore trained rats on a search-target behavior chain modeled on the search behavior of working dogs. A discriminative stimulus signaled that a search response (e.g., chain pull) led to a second stimulus that set the occasion for a target response (e.g., lever press) that was reinforced by a food pellet. In Experiment 1 training with longer search durations and intermittent (partial) reinforcement of searching (i.e. some trials had no target present) both led to more persistent search responding in extinction. The loss of search behavior in extinction was primarily dependent on the number of non-reinforced searches rather than time searching without reinforcement. In Experiments 2 and 3, delivery of non-contingent reinforcers during extinction increased search persistence provided they had also been presented during training. Thus, results with rats suggest that the persistence of working dog performance (or chained behavior generally) may be improved by training with partial reinforcement of searching and non-contingent reinforcement during both training and work (extinction). PMID:27306694

  5. Asynchronous extinction of late Quaternary sloths on continents and islands

    PubMed Central

    Steadman, David W.; Martin, Paul S.; MacPhee, Ross D. E.; Jull, A. J. T.; McDonald, H. Gregory; Woods, Charles A.; Iturralde-Vinent, Manuel; Hodgins, Gregory W. L.

    2005-01-01

    Whatever the cause, it is extraordinary that dozens of genera of large mammals became extinct during the late Quaternary throughout the Western Hemisphere, including 90% of the genera of the xenarthran suborder Phyllophaga (sloths). Radiocarbon dates directly on dung, bones, or other tissue of extinct sloths place their “last appearance” datum at ≈11,000 radiocarbon years before present (yr BP) or slightly less in North America, ≈10,500 yr BP in South America, and ≈4,400 yr BP on West Indian islands. This asynchronous situation is not compatible with glacial–interglacial climate change forcing these extinctions, especially given the great elevational, latitudinal, and longitudinal variation of the sloth-bearing continental sites. Instead, the chronology of last appearance of extinct sloths, whether on continents or islands, more closely tracks the first arrival of people. PMID:16085711

  6. Circumstellar environment, infrared excess and variable extinction in young stars. I. The model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitskevich, A. S.

    1995-06-01

    We give a critical analysis of the hypothesis of an accretion disk around young stars. We show that the accretion disk model, which is based mainly on the interpretation of the observed infrared excesses, is often in contradiction with observations. Recent results obtained for some Herbig Ae/Be stars in a serie of papers by Grinin and coauthors, as well as the similarity in the behaviour of Ae/Be stars and T Tauri stars, show that the circumstellar dust near such young objects cannot be entirely confined to thin disks. This conclusion is supported by the correlations between the forbidden line luminosities, the near infrared excess, and the reddening of T Tauri stars from Cabrit et al. (1990). Such correlations clearly indicate that the near infrared excess cannot solely be interpreted as being due to accretion disks. Here, we suggest a new model of the circumstellar environment of young stars, based on the assumption that circumstellar dust is in clouds rather than in a homogeneous, spherical shell. The dusty clouds are optically thick at optical wavelengths and thin in the infrared. Such an envelope produces very little reddening, whereas in the infrared it reveals a significant excess. We estimate that a small amount of dust, distributed in the intercloud circumstellar space, is responsible for the observed reddening. A detailed analysis of the 10μm silicate feature shows that our model can explain the appearance of the feature both in absorption and emission. The absorption feature should be associated with the objects having a flat energy distribution in the infrared. The maximum intensity of the silicate feature indicates that circumstellar disks cannot contribute significantly (at least in some young stars) to the formation of an infrared excess at 10μm.

  7. Chronologic Analysis of Terrestrial Sediments and Basin Evolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burbank, D.

    1985-01-01

    The use of magnetic-polarity stratigraphy to provide detailed chronologies of numerous areas within a sedimentary basin is discussed. Sediments suitable for magnetostratigraphic studies are identified. Sets of figures intended to illustrate some of the applications of magnetic-polarity stratigraphy to various aspects of basin analysis are given. Most of the examples are drawn from the Himalayan molasse (Indo-Gangetic foredeep) in northern Pakistan and northwestern India. Each of the figures illustrates an example of how detailed chronologies can be utilized in enhancing and refining models of basin analysis and tectonic deformation.

  8. Microwave extinction characteristics of nanoparticle aggregates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Y. P.; Cheng, J. X.; Liu, X. X.; Wang, H. X.; Zhao, F. T.; Wen, W. W.

    2016-07-01

    Structure of nanoparticle aggregates plays an important role in microwave extinction capacity. The diffusion-limited aggregation model (DLA) for fractal growth is utilized to explore the possible structures of nanoparticle aggregates by computer simulation. Based on the discrete dipole approximation (DDA) method, the microwave extinction performance by different nano-carborundum aggregates is numerically analyzed. The effects of the particle quantity, original diameter, fractal structure, as well as orientation on microwave extinction are investigated, and also the extinction characteristics of aggregates are compared with the spherical nanoparticle in the same volume. Numerical results give out that proper aggregation of nanoparticle is beneficial to microwave extinction capacity, and the microwave extinction cross section by aggregated granules is better than that of the spherical solid one in the same volume.

  9. The Effects of Chronological Presentation of Information on Processing and Memory for Broadcast News.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lang, Annie; And Others

    To test the hypothesis that news stories written in chronological order are remembered better than news stories written in typical broadcast format, a study used a mixed model factorial design to examine factors of style (traditional or chronological), subject (content of news story), and order (placement of the story within the newscast). Two…

  10. Chronology of eclipse "San Miao"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Ci-Yuan

    2001-06-01

    The ancient book "Mozi" (5th century BC) records: "In ancient times, the San Miao tribes were in disarray. The sun rose in the evening...King Yu vanquished them. "King Yu is a prehistoric person living in 23-19th century BC. The strange phenomena "sun rose in evening" was explained as a large solar eclipse at sunset by Pang. Therefore investigations on it may lead to an important progress of Chinese chronology. After an analysis on all similar records in Chinese history, we pay main attention to the relationship of eclipse computations with parameter "c", the long term of earth's rotation rate. We have computed all the solar eclipses in that period by the way similar to that used for investigating the "double dawn" eclipse. By change parameter "c" in reasonable range (28-36 sec/cy2), we have found 11 possible results listed in a table. One figure shows the eclipse maps and relative "double dawn/dusk" areas while another one illustrates how the parameter "c" affects the result. For an exact conclusion of King Yu's chronology, we need further progress from both side: history which may limit the King Yu's period and astronomy which may limit the possible range of parameter "c".

  11. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction: Modeling carbon flux and ecological response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adams, J. Brad; Mann, Michael E.; D'Hondt, Steven

    2004-03-01

    It is widely recognized that a significant negative excursion in carbon isotopic (δ13C) differences between planktic and benthic foraminiferal tests occurred at the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary. We applied parametric and nonparametric breakpoint tests and statistical comparisons of different recovery models to assess the timing and pattern of recovery from this negative excursion at South Atlantic Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 528 and equatorial Pacific DSDP Site 577. Our results indicate a two-stage recovery with an initial recovery to an intermediate state of planktic-to-benthic δ13C differences followed by a discontinuous shift to a final state with planktic-to-benthic δ13C differences similar to preextinction values. The final discontinuous shift in both the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sites occurred several million years after the K-T collapse of planktic-to-benthic δ13C differences. Both the first and second stages of recovery are best described by damped exponential relaxations. The pattern and timing of this carbon cycle recovery may have been contingent on the occurrence of key biological events.

  12. Cumulative frequency distribution of past species extinctions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raup, D. M.

    1991-01-01

    Analysis of Sepkoski's compendium of the time ranges of 30,000+ taxa yields a mean duration of 28.4 ma for genera of fossil invertebrates. This converts to an average extinction rate of 3.5 percent per million years or about one percent every 286,000 years. Using survivorship techniques, these estimates can be converted to the species level, yielding a Phanerozoic average of one percent species extinction every 40,000 years. Variation in extinction rates through time is far greater than the null expectation of a homogeneous birth-death model and this reflects the well-known episodicity of extinction ranging from a few large mass extinctions to so-called background extinction. The observed variation in rates can be used to construct a cumulative frequency distribution of extinction intensity, and this distribution, in the form of a kill curve for species, shows the expected waiting times between extinction events of a given intensity. The kill curve is an average description of the extinction events of a given intensity. The kill curve is an average description of the extinction record and does not imply any cause or causes of extinction. The kill curve shows, among other things, that only about five percent of total species extinctions in the Phanerozoic were involved in the five largest mass extinctions. The other 95 percent were distributed among large and small events not normally called mass extinctions. As an exploration of the possibly absurd proposition that most past extinctions were produced by the effects of large-body impact, the kill curve for species was mapped on the comparable distribution for comet and asteroid impacts. The result is a curve predicting the species kill for a given size of impacting object (expressed as crater size). The results are reasonable in that impacts producing craters less than 30 km (diameter) cause negligible extinction but those producing craters 100-150 km (diameter) cause extinction of species in the range of 45

  13. Is extinction forever?

    PubMed

    Smith-Patten, Brenda D; Bridge, Eli S; Crawford, Priscilla H C; Hough, Daniel J; Kelly, Jeffrey F; Patten, Michael A

    2015-05-01

    Mistrust of science has seeped into public perception of the most fundamental aspect of conservation-extinction. The term ought to be straightforward, and yet, there is a disconnect between scientific discussion and public views. This is not a mere semantic issue, rather one of communication. Within a population dynamics context, we say that a species went locally extinct, later to document its return. Conveying our findings matters, for when we use local extinction, an essentially nonsensical phrase, rather than extirpation, which is what is meant, then we contribute to, if not create outright, a problem for public understanding of conservation, particularly as local extinction is often shortened to extinction in media sources. The public that receives the message of our research void of context and modifiers comes away with the idea that extinction is not forever or, worse for conservation as a whole, that an extinction crisis has been invented. PMID:25711479

  14. Is extinction forever?

    PubMed Central

    Bridge, Eli S.; Crawford, Priscilla H. C.; Hough, Daniel J.; Kelly, Jeffrey F.; Patten, Michael A.

    2015-01-01

    Mistrust of science has seeped into public perception of the most fundamental aspect of conservation—extinction. The term ought to be straightforward, and yet, there is a disconnect between scientific discussion and public views. This is not a mere semantic issue, rather one of communication. Within a population dynamics context, we say that a species went locally extinct, later to document its return. Conveying our findings matters, for when we use local extinction, an essentially nonsensical phrase, rather than extirpation, which is what is meant, then we contribute to, if not create outright, a problem for public understanding of conservation, particularly as local extinction is often shortened to extinction in media sources. The public that receives the message of our research void of context and modifiers comes away with the idea that extinction is not forever or, worse for conservation as a whole, that an extinction crisis has been invented. PMID:25711479

  15. Biological selectivity of extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitchell, Jennifer A.

    Selective survival across major extinction event horizons is both a bothersome puzzle and an opportunity to delimit the biologically interesting question of causality. Heritable differences in characters may have predictable consequences in terms of differential species survival. Differences in magnitude and intensity of extinction are insufficient to distinguish background from mass extinction regimes. Biological adaptations may establish links of causality between abnormal times of mass extinction and normal times of background extinction. A current hypothesis, developed from a comparison of extinction patterns among Late Cretaceous molluscs, is that biological adaptations of organisms, effective during normal times of Earth history, are ineffectual during times of crises. A counter example is provided by data from high-latitude laminated marine strata that preserve evidence of an actively exploited life-history strategy among Late Cretaceous phytoplankton. These data illustrate a causal dependency between a biological character selected for during times of background extinction and macroevolutionary survivorship during an unusual time of crisis.

  16. Prediction of extinction and reignition in nonpremixed turbulent flames using a flamelet/progress variable model. 2. Application in LES of Sandia flames D and E

    SciTech Connect

    Ihme, Matthias; Pitsch, Heinz

    2008-10-15

    An extension of the flamelet/progress variable (FPV) model for the prediction of extinction and reignition is applied in large-eddy simulation (LES) of flames D and E of the Sandia piloted turbulent jet flame series. This model employs a presumed probability density function (PDF), in which the marginal PDF of a reactive scalar is modeled by a statistically most likely distribution. This provides two advantages. First of all, the shape of the distribution depends on chemical and mixing time-scale information, and second, an arbitrary number of moments can be enforced. This model was analyzed in an a priori study in the first part of this work. In the present LES application, the first two moments of mixture fraction and reaction progress variable are used to constrain the shape of the presumed PDF. Transport equations for these quantities are solved, and models for the residual scalar dissipation rates, which appear as unclosed terms in the equations for the scalar variances, are provided. Statistical flow field quantities for axial velocity, mixture fraction, and temperature, obtained from the extended FPV model, are in good agreement with experimental data. Mixture-fraction-conditioned data, conditional PDFs, and burning indices are computed and compared with the delta-function flamelet closure model, which employs a Dirac distribution as a model for the marginal PDF of the reaction progress parameter. The latter model considerably underpredicts the amount of local extinction, which shows that the consideration of second-moment information in the presumed PDF of the reaction progress parameter is important for the accurate prediction of extinction and reignition. Mixture-fraction-conditioned results obtained from the extended FPV model are in good agreement with experimental data; however, the overprediction of the consumption of fuel and oxidizer on the fuel-rich side results in an overprediction of minor species. The predictions for the conditional PDFs and

  17. A model predicting the evolution of ice particle size spectra and radiative properties of cirrus clouds. Part 2: Dependence of absorption and extinction on ice crystal morphology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mitchell, David L.; Arnott, W. Patrick

    1994-01-01

    This study builds upon the microphysical modeling described in Part 1 by deriving formulations for the extinction and absorption coefficients in terms of the size distribution parameters predicted from the micro-physical model. The optical depth and single scatter albedo of a cirrus cloud can then be determined, which, along with the asymmetry parameter, are the input parameters needed by cloud radiation models. Through the use of anomalous diffraction theory, analytical expressions were developed describing the absorption and extinction coefficients and the single scatter albedo as functions of size distribution parameters, ice crystal shapes (or habits), wavelength, and refractive index. The extinction coefficient was formulated in terms of the projected area of the size distribution, while the absorption coefficient was formulated in terms of both the projected area and mass of the size distribution. These properties were formulated as explicit functions of ice crystal geometry and were not based on an 'effective radius.' Based on simulations of the second cirrus case study described in Part 1, absorption coefficients predicted in the near infrared for hexagonal columns and rosettes were up to 47% and 71% lower, respectively, than absorption coefficients predicted by using equivalent area spheres. This resulted in single scatter albedos in the near-infrared that were considerably greater than those predicted by the equivalent area sphere method. Reflectances in this region should therefore be underestimated using the equivalent area sphere approach. Cloud optical depth was found to depend on ice crystal habit. When the simulated cirrus cloud contained only bullet rosettes, the optical depth was 142% greater than when the cloud contained only hexagonal columns. This increase produced a doubling in cloud albedo. In the near-infrared (IR), the single scatter albedo also exhibited a significant dependence on ice crystal habit. More research is needed on the

  18. Chronology of early lunar crust

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dasch, E. J.; Nyquist, L. E.; Ryder, G.

    1988-01-01

    The chronology of lunar rocks is summarized. The oldest pristine (i.e., lacking meteoritic contamination of admixed components) lunar rock, recently dated with Sm-Nd by Lugmair, is a ferroan anorthosite, with an age of 4.44 + 0.02 Ga. Ages of Mg-suite rocks (4.1 to 4.5 Ga) have large uncertainties, so that age differences between lunar plutonic rock suites cannot yet be resolved. Most mare basalts crystallized between 3.1 and 3.9 Ga. The vast bulk of the lunar crust, therefore, formed before the oldest preserved terrestrial rocks. If the Moon accreted at 4.56 Ga, then 120 Ma may have elapsed before lunar crust was formed.

  19. Critical review of a new volcanic eruption chronology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neuhäuser, Dagmar L.; Neuhäuser, Ralph

    2016-04-01

    Sigl. et al. (2015, Nature) present historical evidence for 32 volcanic eruptions to evaluate their new polar ice core 10-Be chronology - 24 are dated within three years of sulfur layers in polar ice. Most of them can be interpreted as weather phenomena (Babylonia: disk of sun like moon, reported for only one day, e.g. extinction due to clouds), Chinese sunspot reports (pellet, black vapor, etc.), solar eclipses, normal ice-halos and coronae (ring, bow, etc.), one aurora (redness), red suns due to mist drops in wet fog or fire-smoke, etc. Volcanic dust may facilitate detections of sunspots and formation of Bishop's ring, but tend to inhibit ice-halos, which are otherwise often reported in chronicles. We are left with three reports possibly indicating volcanic eruptions, namely fulfilling genuine criteria for atmospheric disturbances due to volcanic dust, e.g. bluish or faint sun, orange sky, or fainting of stars for months (BCE 208, 44-42, and 32). Among the volcanic eruptions used to fix the chronology (CE 536, 626, 939, 1257), the reports cited for the 930s deal only with 1-2 days, at least one reports an eclipse. In the new chronology, there is a sulfur detection eight years after the Vesuvius eruption, but none in CE 79. It may appear surprising that, from BCE 500 to 1, all five northern sulfur peaks labeled in figure 2 in Sigl et al. are systematically later by 2-4 years than the (corresponding?) southern peaks, while all five southern peaks from CE 100 to 600 labeled in figure 2 are systematically later by 1-4 years than the (corresponding?) northern peaks. Furthermore, in most of their six strongest volcanic eruptions, temperatures decreased years before their sulfur dating - correlated with weak solar activity as seen in radiocarbon, so that volcanic climate forcing appears dubious here. Also, their 10-Be peaks at CE 775 and 994 are neither significant nor certain in dating.

  20. Effects of Extinction Treatments on the Reduction of Conditioned Responding and Conditioned Hyperarousal in a Rabbit Model of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD)

    PubMed Central

    Burhans, Lauren B.; Smith-Bell, Carrie A.; Schreurs, Bernard G.

    2015-01-01

    We have previously characterized a model of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), based on classical conditioning of the rabbit nictitating membrane response (NMR), that focuses on 2 key PTSD-like features: conditioned responses to trauma-associated cues and hyperarousal. In addition to the development of conditioned NMRs (CRs) to a tone conditioned stimulus (CS) associated with a periorbital shock unconditioned stimulus (US), we have observed that rabbits also exhibit a conditioning-specific reflex modification (CRM) of the NMR that manifests as an exaggerated and more complex reflexive NMR to presentations of the US by itself, particularly to intensities that elicited little response prior to conditioning. Previous work has demonstrated that unpaired presentations of the CS and US are successful at extinguishing CRs and CRM simultaneously, even when a significantly weakened version of the US is utilized. In the current study, additional extinction treatments were tested, including continued pairings of the CS with a weakened US and exposure to the training context alone, and these treatments were contrasted with the effects of unpaired extinction with a weakened US and remaining in home cages with no further treatment. Results showed that continued pairings only slightly decreased CRs and CRM, while context exposure had no effect on CRs and marginal effects on reducing CRM. Unpaired extinction was still the most effective treatment for reducing both. Findings are discussed in terms of applications to cognitive–behavioral therapies for treatment of PTSD, such as incorporating mild, innately stressful stimuli into virtual reality therapy. PMID:26348715

  1. Stress-induced enhancement of fear conditioning and sensitization facilitates extinction-resistant and habituation-resistant fear behaviors in a novel animal model of posttraumatic stress disorder.

    PubMed

    Corley, Michael J; Caruso, Michael J; Takahashi, Lorey K

    2012-01-18

    Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is characterized by stress-induced symptoms including exaggerated fear memories, hypervigilance and hyperarousal. However, we are unaware of an animal model that investigates these hallmarks of PTSD especially in relation to fear extinction and habituation. Therefore, to develop a valid animal model of PTSD, we exposed rats to different intensities of footshock stress to determine their effects on either auditory predator odor fear extinction or habituation of fear sensitization. In Experiment 1, rats were exposed to acute footshock stress (no shock control, 0.4 mA, or 0.8 mA) immediately prior to auditory fear conditioning training involving the pairing of auditory clicks with a cloth containing cat odor. When presented to the conditioned auditory clicks in the next 5 days of extinction testing conducted in a runway apparatus with a hide box, rats in the two shock groups engaged in higher levels of freezing and head out vigilance-like behavior from the hide box than the no shock control group. This increase in fear behavior during extinction testing was likely due to auditory activation of the conditioned fear state because Experiment 2 demonstrated that conditioned fear behavior was not broadly increased in the absence of the conditioned auditory stimulus. Experiment 3 was then conducted to determine whether acute exposure to stress induces a habituation resistant sensitized fear state. We found that rats exposed to 0.8 mA footshock stress and subsequently tested for 5 days in the runway hide box apparatus with presentations of nonassociative auditory clicks exhibited high initial levels of freezing, followed by head out behavior and culminating in the occurrence of locomotor hyperactivity. In addition, Experiment 4 indicated that without delivery of nonassociative auditory clicks, 0.8 mA footshock stressed rats did not exhibit robust increases in sensitized freezing and locomotor hyperactivity, albeit head out vigilance

  2. ALE: Astronomical LIDAR for Extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zimmer, Peter C.; McGraw, J. T.; Gimmestad, G.; Roberts, D.; Stewart, J.; Dawsey, M.; Fitch, J.; Smith, J.; Townsend, A.; Black, B.

    2006-12-01

    The primary impediment to precision all-sky photometry is the scattering or absorption of incoming starlight by the aerosols suspended in, and the molecules of, the Earth's atmosphere. The University of New Mexico (UNM) and the Georgia Tech Research Institute (GTRI) are currently developing the Astronomical LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) for Extinction (ALE), which is undergoing final integration and initial calibration at UNM. ALE is based upon a 527nm laser operated at a pulse repetition rate of 1500 pps, and rendered eyesafe by expanding its beam through a 32cm diameter transmitter. The alt-az mounted ALE will operate in multiple modes, including mapping the sky to obtain a quantitative measurement of extinction sources, measuring a monochromatic extinction coefficient by producing Langely plots, and monitoring extinction in the direction in which a telescope is observing. A primary goal is to use the Rayleigh scattered LIDAR return from air above 20km as a quasi-constant illumination source. Air above this altitude is generally free from aerosols and the variations in density are relatively constant over intervals of a few minutes. When measured at several zenith angles, the integrated line-of-sight extinction can be obtained from a simple model fit of these returns. The 69 microjoule exit pulse power and 0.6m aperture receiver will allow ALE to collect approximately one million photons per minute from above 20km, enough to enable measurements of the monochromatic vertical extinction to better than 1% under photometric conditions. Along the way, ALE will also provide a plethora of additional information about the vertical and horizontal distributions of low-lying aerosols, dust or smoke in the free troposphere, and high cirrus, as well as detect the passage of boundary layer atmospheric gravity waves. This project is funded by NSF Grant 0421087.

  3. Gradual extinction reduces reinstatement

    PubMed Central

    Shiban, Youssef; Wittmann, Jasmin; Weißinger, Mara; Mühlberger, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    The current study investigated whether gradually reducing the frequency of aversive stimuli during extinction can prevent the return of fear. Thirty-one participants of a three-stage procedure (acquisition, extinction and a reinstatement test on day 2) were randomly assigned to a standard extinction (SE) and gradual extinction (GE) procedure. The two groups differed only in the extinction procedure. While the SE group ran through a regular extinction process without any negative events, the frequency of the aversive stimuli during the extinction phase was gradually reduced for the GE group. The unconditioned stimulus (US) was an air blast (5 bar, 10 ms). A spider and a scorpion were used as conditioned stimuli (CS). The outcome variables were contingency ratings and physiological measures (skin conductance response, SCR and startle response). There were no differences found between the two groups for the acquisition and extinction phases concerning contingency ratings, SCR, or startle response. GE compared to SE significantly reduced the return of fear in the reinstatement test for the startle response but not for SCR or contingency ratings. This study was successful in translating the findings in rodent to humans. The results suggest that the GE process is suitable for increasing the efficacy of fear extinction. PMID:26441581

  4. Mass extinction: a commentary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raup, D. M.

    1987-01-01

    Four neocatastrophist claims about mass extinction are currently being debated; they are that: 1, the late Cretaceous mass extinction was caused by large body impact; 2, as many as five other major extinctions were caused by impact; 3, the timing of extinction events since the Permian is uniformly periodic; and 4, the ages of impact craters on Earth are also periodic and in phase with the extinctions. Although strongly interconnected the four claims are independent in the sense that none depends on the others. Evidence for a link between impact and extinction is strong but still needs more confirmation through bed-by-bed and laboratory studies. An important area for future research is the question of whether extinction is a continuous process, with the rate increasing at times of mass extinctions, or whether it is episodic at all scales. If the latter is shown to be generally true, then species are at risk of extinction only rarely during their existence and catastrophism, in the sense of isolated events of extreme stress, is indicated. This is line of reasoning can only be considered an hypothesis for testing. In a larger context, paleontologists may benefit from a research strategy that looks to known Solar System and Galactic phenomena for predictions about environmental effects on earth. The recent success in the recognition of Milankovitch Cycles in the late Pleistocene record is an example of the potential of this research area.

  5. Quantifying yeast chronological life span by outgrowth of aged cells.

    PubMed

    Murakami, Christopher; Kaeberlein, Matt

    2009-01-01

    The budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae has proven to be an important model organism in the field of aging research. The replicative and chronological life spans are two established paradigms used to study aging in yeast. Replicative aging is defined as the number of daughter cells a single yeast mother cell produces before senescence; chronological aging is defined by the length of time cells can survive in a non-dividing, quiescence-like state. We have developed a high-throughput method for quantitative measurement of chronological life span. This method involves aging the cells in a defined medium under agitation and at constant temperature. At each age-point, a sub-population of cells is removed from the aging culture and inoculated into rich growth medium. A high-resolution growth curve is then obtained for this sub-population of aged cells using a Bioscreen C MBR machine. An algorithm is then applied to determine the relative proportion of viable cells in each sub-population based on the growth kinetics at each age-point. This method requires substantially less time and resources compared to other chronological lifespan assays while maintaining reproducibility and precision. The high-throughput nature of this assay should allow for large-scale genetic and chemical screens to identify novel longevity modifiers for further testing in more complex organisms. PMID:19421136

  6. Contingency Awareness Shapes Acquisition and Extinction of Emotional Responses in a Conditioning Model of Pain-Related Fear

    PubMed Central

    Labrenz, Franziska; Icenhour, Adriane; Benson, Sven; Elsenbruch, Sigrid

    2015-01-01

    As a fundamental learning process, fear conditioning promotes the formation of associations between predictive cues and biologically significant signals. In its application to pain, conditioning may provide important insight into mechanisms underlying pain-related fear, although knowledge especially in interoceptive pain paradigms remains scarce. Furthermore, while the influence of contingency awareness on excitatory learning is subject of ongoing debate, its role in pain-related acquisition is poorly understood and essentially unknown regarding extinction as inhibitory learning. Therefore, we addressed the impact of contingency awareness on learned emotional responses to pain- and safety-predictive cues in a combined dataset of two pain-related conditioning studies. In total, 75 healthy participants underwent differential fear acquisition, during which rectal distensions as interoceptive unconditioned stimuli (US) were repeatedly paired with a predictive visual cue (conditioned stimulus; CS+) while another cue (CS−) was presented unpaired. During extinction, both CS were presented without US. CS valence, indicating learned emotional responses, and CS-US contingencies were assessed on visual analog scales (VAS). Based on an integrative measure of contingency accuracy, a median-split was performed to compare groups with low vs. high contingency accuracy regarding learned emotional responses. To investigate predictive value of contingency accuracy, regression analyses were conducted. Highly accurate individuals revealed more pronounced negative emotional responses to CS+ and increased positive responses to CS− when compared to participants with low contingency accuracy. Following extinction, highly accurate individuals had fully extinguished pain-predictive cue properties, while exhibiting persistent positive emotional responses to safety signals. In contrast, individuals with low accuracy revealed equally positive emotional responses to both, CS+ and CS

  7. Estimating how many undescribed species have gone extinct.

    PubMed

    Tedesco, P A; Bigorne, R; Bogan, A E; Giam, X; Jézéquel, C; Hugueny, B

    2014-10-01

    Because both descriptions of species and modern human-driven extinctions started around the same time (i.e., eighteenth century), a logical expectation is that a large proportion of species may have gone extinct without ever having been recorded. Despite this evident and widely recognized assumption, the loss of undescribed species has never been estimated. We quantified this loss for several taxonomic groups and regions for which undescribed species extinctions are likely to have occurred. Across a wide range of taxonomic groups, we applied known extinction rates computed from recorded species losses to assumed exponential decay in the proportion of species remaining undiscovered. Because all previous modeling attempts to project total species richness implicitly assumed that undescribed species extinctions could be neglected, we also evaluated the effect of neglecting them. Finally, because we assumed constant description and extinction probabilities, we applied our model to simulated data that did not conform to this assumption. Actual species losses were severely underestimated by considering only known species extinctions. According to our estimates, the proportion of undiscovered extinct species over all extinctions ranged from 0.15 to 0.59, depending on the taxonomic group and the region considered. This means that recent extinctions may be up to twice as large as the number recorded. When species differed in their extinction or description probabilities, our model underestimated extinctions of undescribed species by up to 20%. PMID:24684650

  8. The "terminal Triassic catastrophic extinction event" in perspective: a review of carboniferous through Early Jurassic terrestrial vertebrate extinction patterns

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Weems, R.E.

    1992-01-01

    A catastrophic terminal Triassic extinction event among terrestrial vertebrates is not supported by available evidence. The current model for such an extinction is based on at least eight weak or untenable assumptions: (1) a terminal Triassic extinction-inducing asteroid impact occurred, (2) a terminal Triassic synchronous mass extinction of terrestrial vertebrates occurred, (3) a concurrent terminal Triassic marine extinction occurred, (4) all terrestrial vertebrate families have similar diversities and ecologies, (5) changes in familial diversity can be gauged accurately from the known fossil record, (6) extinction of families can be compared through time without normalizing for changes in familial diversity through time, (7) extinction rates can be compared without normalizing for differing lengths of geologic stages, and (8) catastrophic mass extinctions do not select for small size. These assumptions have resulted in unsupportable and (or) erroneous conclusions. Carboniferous through Early Jurassic terrestrial vertebrate families mostly have evolution and extinction patterns unlike the vertebrate evolution and extinction patterns during the terminal Cretaceous event. Only the Serpukhovian (mid Carboniferous) extinction event shows strong analogy to the terminal Cretaceous event. Available data suggest no terminal Triassic extinction anomaly, but rather a prolonged and nearly steady decline in the global terrestrial vertebrate extinction rate throughout the Triassic and earliest Jurassic. ?? 1992.

  9. Impact Chronology of the Moon — Results from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hiesinger, H.; van der Bogert, C. H.; Pasckert, J. H.; Plescia, J. B.; Robinson, M. S.

    2016-05-01

    We present absolute model ages (AMAs) based on crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements for Copernicus, Tycho, North Ray, Cone, and Autolycus craters to test and possibly improve the lunar cratering chronology.

  10. Extinction and the fossil record

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, ,. J. r. (Principal Investigator)

    1994-01-01

    The author examines evidence of mass extinctions in the fossil record and searches for reasons for such large extinctions. Five major mass extinctions eliminated at least 40 percent of animal genera in the oceans and from 65 to 95 percent of ocean species. Questions include the occurrence of gradual or catastrophic extinctions, causes, environment, the capacity of a perturbation to cause extinctions each time it happens, and the possibility and identification of complex events leading to a mass extinction.

  11. Temporal Dynamics of Recovery from Extinction Shortly after Extinction Acquisition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Archbold, Georgina E.; Dobbek, Nick; Nader, Karim

    2013-01-01

    Evidence suggests that extinction is new learning. Memory acquisition involves both short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM) components; however, few studies have examined early phases of extinction retention. Retention of auditory fear extinction was examined at various time points. Shortly (1-4 h) after extinction acquisition…

  12. Electromagnetic wave extinction within a forested canopy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karam, M. A.; Fung, A. K.

    1989-01-01

    A forested canopy is modeled by a collection of randomly oriented finite-length cylinders shaded by randomly oriented and distributed disk- or needle-shaped leaves. For a plane wave exciting the forested canopy, the extinction coefficient is formulated in terms of the extinction cross sections (ECSs) in the local frame of each forest component and the Eulerian angles of orientation (used to describe the orientation of each component). The ECSs in the local frame for the finite-length cylinders used to model the branches are obtained by using the forward-scattering theorem. ECSs in the local frame for the disk- and needle-shaped leaves are obtained by the summation of the absorption and scattering cross-sections. The behavior of the extinction coefficients with the incidence angle is investigated numerically for both deciduous and coniferous forest. The dependencies of the extinction coefficients on the orientation of the leaves are illustrated numerically.

  13. Prediction of extinction and reignition in nonpremixed turbulent flames using a flamelet/progress variable model. 1. A priori study and presumed PDF closure

    SciTech Connect

    Ihme, Matthias; Pitsch, Heinz

    2008-10-15

    Previously conducted studies of the flamelet/progress variable model for the prediction of nonpremixed turbulent combustion processes identified two areas for model improvements: the modeling of the presumed probability density function (PDF) for the reaction progress parameter and the consideration of unsteady effects [Ihme et al., Proc. Combust. Inst. 30 (2005) 793]. These effects are of particular importance during local flame extinction and subsequent reignition. Here, the models for the presumed PDFs for conserved and reactive scalars are re-examined and a statistically most likely distribution (SMLD) is employed and tested in a priori studies using direct numerical simulation (DNS) data and experimental results from the Sandia flame series. In the first part of the paper, the SMLD model is employed for a reactive scalar distribution. Modeling aspects of the a priori PDF, accounting for the bias in composition space, are discussed. The convergence of the SMLD with increasing number of enforced moments is demonstrated. It is concluded that information about more than two moments is beneficial to accurately represent the reactive scalar distribution in turbulent flames with strong extinction and reignition. In addition to the reactive scalar analysis, the potential of the SMLD for the representation of conserved scalar distributions is also analyzed. In the a priori study using DNS data it is found that the conventionally employed beta distribution provides a better representation for the scalar distribution. This is attributed to the fact that the beta-PDF implicitly enforces higher moment information that is in excellent agreement with the DNS data. However, the SMLD outperforms the beta distribution in free shear flow applications, which are typically characterized by strongly skewed scalar distributions, in the case where higher moment information can be enforced. (author)

  14. Mass extinction causes debated

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katzoff, Judith A.

    A highly charged atmosphere and a tacit agreement to disagree marked the first Union session at the 1985 AGU Fall Meeting,“Where Are We Now on Iridium, Anomalies, Extinctions, Impacts, Volcanism, and Periodicity?” The session brought together a remarkably large and varied group of participants who are studying topics related to mass extinctions. “The important thing is bringing all these people together, sharing … how they think,” said J. John Sepkoski, Jr., of the University of Chicago, who presented one of the session's invited papers.The controversies under discussion included the nature of the catastrophic events that may have occurred 65 million years ago to precipitate mass extinctions between the Cretaceous and Tertiary periods and whether mass extinctions have occurred at regular intervals (and if so, what those intervals are). Both the group advocating extraterrestrial impacts and that advocating episodes of unusual terrestrial volcanism seemed to agree that both kinds of catastrophes would have brought on highly acidic precipitation that could have threatened many life forms. In fact, one paleontologist called for closer examination of patterns of survival during periods of mass extinctions in order to gain clues about the nature of the events that may have brought on the extinctions. “The survivors … set limits on what could have occurred,” said William A. Clemens of the University of California, Berkeley.

  15. Frost-ring chronologies as dendroclimatic proxies of boreal environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Payette, Serge; Delwaide, Ann; Simard, Martin

    2010-01-01

    Frost rings are formed in tree stems when growing-season frosts affect immature wood cells, producing collapsed cells within annual tree rings. Open boreal forests are most susceptible to record growing-season frost because they lack the greenhouse effect commonly observed in closed forests. Here we present a novel method to construct regional frost-ring chronologies in lichen-black spruce woodlands of the boreal forest zone. Because the ability of trees to form frost rings depends on several factors (including bark thickness and ring width), we used two models to produce a Frost Composite Index based on a frost susceptibility window of cambial age <30 years. The frost-ring chronology showed alternating periods of high and low frost activity that were highly consistent within and among sites. Reconstruction of growing-season frost activity may be used as dendroclimatic proxies of climate variability and may give insights into future risks of frost damage in a warming climate.

  16. Chronologic versus Biologic Aging of the Human Choroid

    PubMed Central

    May, Christian Albrecht

    2013-01-01

    Several aspects of chronologic and biologic aging in the human choroid are reviewed from the literature. They often reveal methodological problems for age-dependent changes of the following parameters: choroidal thickness, choroidal pigmentation, choroidal vasculature and blood flow, and choroidal innervation. On reinterpreting some data of studies concerning Bruch's membrane, changes observed at different age points seem more likely to be nonlinear. Concluding from the data presented so far, chronologic aging should not be used as a factor for physiological changes in the human choroid. Longitudinal study designs are necessary to further establish the impact of age. Meanwhile, a more biologic oriented model of aging processes in the choroid should be established, including specified conditions (e.g., light exposure and refractory state). This would help to define more individual strategies for prevention and early stages of a certain defined disease. PMID:24453840

  17. On the prior distribution of extinction time.

    PubMed

    Solow, Andrew R

    2016-06-01

    Bayesian inference about the extinction of a species based on a record of its sightings requires the specification of a prior distribution for extinction time. Here, I critically review some specifications in the context of a specific model of the sighting record. The practical implication of the choice of prior distribution is illustrated through an application to the sighting record of the Caribbean monk seal. PMID:27277952

  18. Construction of reliable radiocarbon-based chronologies for speleothems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lechleitner, Franziska; Fohlmeister, Jens; McIntyre, Cameron; Baldini, Lisa M.; Jamieson, Robert A.; Hercman, Helena; Gasiorowski, Michal; Pawlak, Jacek; Stefaniak, Krzysztof; Socha, Pawel; Eglinton, Timothy I.; Baldini, James U. L.

    2016-04-01

    Speleothems have become one of the most widely applied archives for paleoclimate research. One of their key advantages is their amenability for U-series dating, often producing excellent high precision chronologies. However, stalagmites with high detrital Th or very low U concentrations are problematic to date using U-series, and sometimes need to be discarded from further paleoclimate analysis. Radiocarbon chronologies could present an alternative for stalagmites that cannot be dated using U-series, if offsets from the "dead carbon fraction" (DCF) can be resolved. The DCF is a variable reservoir effect introduced by the addition of 14C-dead carbon from host rock dissolution and soil organic matter. We present a novel age modeling technique that provides accurate 14C-based chronologies for stalagmites. As this technique focuses on the long-term decay pattern of 14C, it is only applicable on stalagmites that show no secular variability in their 14C-depth profiles, but is independent of short-term DCF variations. In order to determine whether a stalagmite is suitable for this method without direct knowledge of long-term trends in the DCF, we highlight how other geochemical proxies (δ13C, Mg/Ca) can provide additional information on changes in karst hydrology, soil conditions, and climate that would affect DCF. We apply our model on a previously published U-Th dated stalagmite 14C dataset from Heshang Cave, China with excellent results, followed by a previously 'undateable' stalagmite from southern Poland.

  19. Calibration of NIRS-measured hemodynamics with best-matched hemoglobin extinction coefficients and group statics on human-blood-model data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Ting; Zhao, Yue; Sun, Yunlong; Li, Kai; Li, Wenjie; Zhang, Chi; Liu, Junpeng

    2015-03-01

    Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) has been extensively developed for in-vivo measurements of tissue vascular oxygenation, breast tumor detection, and functional brain imaging, by groups of physicists, biomedical engineers, and mathematicians. To quantify concentrations of oxyhemoglobin, deoxyhemoglobin, and total hemoglobin (hemodynamics), extinction coefficients of hemoglobin (ɛ) have to be employed. However, it is still controversial what ɛ values should be used and relatively what calibration should be done in NIRS quantification to achieve the highest precision, although that the differences in ɛ values among published data resulted in ~20% variation in quantification of hemoglobin concentration is reported based a single human blood test. We collected 12 blood samples from 12 healthy people, and with each blood sample performed blood tissue model experiments. 4 teams of published extinction value widely used in NIRS fields were employed respectively in our quantification. Calibrations based least square analysis and regression between real and estimated hemodynamics for 12 subjects were performed with each team of ɛ values respectively. We found that: Moaveni's ɛ values contributed to highest accuracy; Regression method produced quite effective calibration, and when it combined with Moaveni's ɛ values, the calibration reduced the std/mean of estimation by two orders of magnitude. Thus Moaveni's ɛ values are most recommended to use in NIRS quantification, especially with our calibration matrix based on regression analysis with a group of subjects' blood sample.

  20. Traumatic stress causes distinctive effects on fear circuit catecholamines and the fear extinction profile in a rodent model of posttraumatic stress disorder.

    PubMed

    Lin, Chen-Cheng; Tung, Che-Se; Lin, Pin-Hsuan; Huang, Chuen-Lin; Liu, Yia-Ping

    2016-09-01

    Central catecholamines regulate fear memory across the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), amygdala (AMYG), and hippocampus (HPC). However, inadequate evidence exists to address the relationships among these fear circuit areas in terms of the fear symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). By examining the behavioral profile in a Pavlovian fear conditioning paradigm together with tissue/efflux levels of dopamine (DA) and norepinephrine (NE) and their reuptake abilities across the fear circuit areas in rats that experienced single prolonged stress (SPS, a rodent model of PTSD), we demonstrated that SPS-impaired extinction retrieval was concomitant with the changes of central DA/NE in a dissociable manner. For tissue levels, diminished DA and increased NE were both observed in the mPFC and AMYG. DA efflux and synaptosomal DA transporter were consistently reduced in the AMYG/vHPC, whereas SPS reduced NE efflux in the infralimbic cortex and synaptosomal NE transporter in the mPFC. Furthermore, a lower expression of synaptosomal VMAT2 was observed in the mPFC, AMYG, and vHPC after SPS. Finally, negative correlations were observed between retrieval freezing and DA in the mPFC/AMYG; nevertheless, the phenomena became invalid after SPS. Our results suggest that central catecholamines are crucially involved in the retrieval of fear extinction in which DA and NE play distinctive roles across the fear circuit areas. PMID:27492886

  1. Extinctions. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans.

    PubMed

    Finnegan, Seth; Anderson, Sean C; Harnik, Paul G; Simpson, Carl; Tittensor, Derek P; Byrnes, Jarrett E; Finkel, Zoe V; Lindberg, David R; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Lockwood, Rowan; Lotze, Heike K; McClain, Craig R; McGuire, Jenny L; O'Dea, Aaron; Pandolfi, John M

    2015-05-01

    Marine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk-extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models-for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity. PMID:25931558

  2. Biomarker Records Associated with Mass Extinction Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whiteside, Jessica H.; Grice, Kliti

    2016-06-01

    The history of life on Earth is punctuated by a series of mass extinction episodes that vary widely in their magnitude, duration, and cause. Biomarkers are a powerful tool for the reconstruction of historical environmental conditions and can therefore provide insights into the cause and responses to ancient extinction events. In examining the five largest mass extinctions in the geological record, investigators have used biomarkers to elucidate key processes such as eutrophy, euxinia, ocean acidification, changes in hydrological balance, and changes in atmospheric CO2. By using these molecular fossils to understand how Earth and its ecosystems have responded to unusual environmental activity during these extinctions, models can be made to predict how Earth will respond to future changes in its climate.

  3. The extinction properties of forest components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karam, M. A.; Fung, A. K.; Blanchard, A. J.; Nance, C. E.

    1988-01-01

    The effect of each forest component on the extinction of electromagnetic waves is investigated by modeling the branches with finite cylinders, deciduous leaves with elliptic disks, and coniferous leaves with needles. The inner field is estimated by the field inside an infinitely long cylinder of similar properties for the branches, and by the Shifrin approximation for the leaves. For each forest component analytic expressions were derived for the extinction cross section via the forward scattering theorem and for ohmic and scattered losses. For branches, the variation of the extinction cross section obtained via the forward scattering theorem is illustrated numerically as a function of the branch radius and the imaginery part of its dielectric constant. It is compared with the measurements from a single branch. For the leaves, the forward scattering theorem gives value for the extinction cross section equal to the ohmic cross section.

  4. Predicting extinction risk of Brazilian Atlantic forest angiosperms.

    PubMed

    Leão, Tarciso C C; Fonseca, Carlos R; Peres, Carlos A; Tabarelli, Marcelo

    2014-10-01

    Understanding how plant life history affects species vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbances and environmental change is a major ecological challenge. We examined how vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size relate to extinction risk throughout the Brazilian Atlantic Forest domain. We used a database containing species-level information of 6,929 angiosperms within 112 families and a molecular-based working phylogeny. We used decision trees, standard regression, and phylogenetic regression to explore the relationships between species attributes and extinction risk. We found a significant phylogenetic signal in extinction risk. Vegetation type, growth form, and geographic range size were related to species extinction risk, but the effect of growth form was not evident after phylogeny was controlled for. Species restricted to either rocky outcrops or scrub vegetation on sandy coastal plains exhibited the highest extinction risk among vegetation types, a finding that supports the hypothesis that species adapted to resource-limited environments are more vulnerable to extinction. Among growth forms, epiphytes were associated with the highest extinction risk in non-phylogenetic regression models, followed by trees, whereas shrubs and climbers were associated with lower extinction risk. However, the higher extinction risk of epiphytes was not significant after correcting for phylogenetic relatedness. Our findings provide new indicators of extinction risk and insights into the mechanisms governing plant vulnerability to extinction in a highly diverse flora where human disturbances are both frequent and widespread. PMID:24665927

  5. A NEW CHRONOLOGY FOR THE MOON AND MERCURY

    SciTech Connect

    Marchi, Simone; Mottola, Stefano; Cremonese, Gabriele; Martellato, Elena; Massironi, Matteo

    2009-06-15

    In this paper, we present a new method for dating the surface of the Moon, obtained by modeling the incoming flux of impactors and converting it into a size distribution of resulting craters. We compare the results from this model with the standard chronology for the Moon showing their similarities and discrepancies. In particular, we find indications of a nonconstant impactor flux in the last 500 Myr and also discuss the implications of our findings for the Late Heavy Bombardment hypothesis. We also show the potential of our model for accurate dating of other inner solar system bodies, by applying it to Mercury.

  6. Conservation Risks: When Will Rhinos be Extinct?

    PubMed

    Haas, Timothy C; Ferreira, Sam M

    2016-08-01

    We develop a risk intelligence system for biodiversity enterprises. Such enterprises depend on a supply of endangered species for their revenue. Many of these enterprises, however, cannot purchase a supply of this resource and are largely unable to secure the resource against theft in the form of poaching. Because replacements are not available once a species becomes extinct, insurance products are not available to reduce the risk exposure of these enterprises to an extinction event. For many species, the dynamics of anthropogenic impacts driven by economic as well as noneconomic values of associated wildlife products along with their ecological stressors can help meaningfully predict extinction risks. We develop an agent/individual-based economic-ecological model that captures these effects and apply it to the case of South African rhinos. Our model uses observed rhino dynamics and poaching statistics. It seeks to predict rhino extinction under the present scenario. This scenario has no legal horn trade, but allows live African rhino trade and legal hunting. Present rhino populations are small and threatened by a rising onslaught of poaching. This present scenario and associated dynamics predicts continued decline in rhino population size with accelerated extinction risks of rhinos by 2036. Our model supports the computation of extinction risks at any future time point. This capability can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed conservation strategies at reducing a species' extinction risk. Models used to compute risk predictions, however, need to be statistically estimated. We point out that statistically fitting such models to observations will involve massive numbers of observations on consumer behavior and time-stamped location observations on thousands of animals. Finally, we propose Big Data algorithms to perform such estimates and to interpret the fitted model's output. PMID:26340794

  7. Hybridization and extinction.

    PubMed

    Todesco, Marco; Pascual, Mariana A; Owens, Gregory L; Ostevik, Katherine L; Moyers, Brook T; Hübner, Sariel; Heredia, Sylvia M; Hahn, Min A; Caseys, Celine; Bock, Dan G; Rieseberg, Loren H

    2016-08-01

    Hybridization may drive rare taxa to extinction through genetic swamping, where the rare form is replaced by hybrids, or by demographic swamping, where population growth rates are reduced due to the wasteful production of maladaptive hybrids. Conversely, hybridization may rescue the viability of small, inbred populations. Understanding the factors that contribute to destructive versus constructive outcomes of hybridization is key to managing conservation concerns. Here, we survey the literature for studies of hybridization and extinction to identify the ecological, evolutionary, and genetic factors that critically affect extinction risk through hybridization. We find that while extinction risk is highly situation dependent, genetic swamping is much more frequent than demographic swamping. In addition, human involvement is associated with increased risk and high reproductive isolation with reduced risk. Although climate change is predicted to increase the risk of hybridization-induced extinction, we find little empirical support for this prediction. Similarly, theoretical and experimental studies imply that genetic rescue through hybridization may be equally or more probable than demographic swamping, but our literature survey failed to support this claim. We conclude that halting the introduction of hybridization-prone exotics and restoring mature and diverse habitats that are resistant to hybrid establishment should be management priorities. PMID:27468307

  8. Biological Extinction in Earth History

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raup, David M.

    1986-03-01

    Virtually all plant and animal species that have ever lived on the earth are extinct. For this reason alone, extinction must play an important role in the evolution of life. The five largest mass extinctions of the past 600 million years are of greatest interest, but there is also a spectrum of smaller events, many of which indicate biological systems in profound stress. Extinction may be episodic at all scales, with relatively long periods of stability alternating with short-lived extinction events. Most extinction episodes are biologically selective, and further analysis of the victims and survivors offers the greatest chance of deducing the proximal causes of extinction. A drop in sea level and climatic change are most frequently invoked to explain mass extinctions, but new theories of collisions with extraterrestrial bodies are gaining favor. Extinction may be constructive in a Darwinian sense or it may only perturb the system by eliminating those organisms that happen to be susceptible to geologically rare stresses.

  9. Biological extinction in earth history

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raup, D. M.

    1986-01-01

    Virtually all plant and animal species that have ever lived on the earth are extinct. For this reason alone, extinction must play an important role in the evolution of life. The five largest mass extinctions of the past 600 million years are of greatest interest, but there is also a spectrum of smaller events, many of which indicate biological systems in profound stress. Extinction may be episodic at all scales, with relatively long periods of stability alternating with short-lived extinction events. Most extinction episodes are biologically selective, and further analysis of the victims and survivors offers the greatest chance of deducing the proximal causes of extinction. A drop in sea level and climatic change are most frequently invoked to explain mass extinctions, but new theories of collisions with extraterrestrial bodies are gaining favor. Extinction may be constructive in a Darwinian sense or it may only perturb the system by eliminating those organisms that happen to be susceptible to geologically rare stresses.

  10. Species extinction mires ecosystem

    SciTech Connect

    Holzman, D.

    1990-03-26

    Extinction is normal in the evolution of life, but amphibians, insects, birds and mammals are vanishing at an alarming pace. While habitat destruction, overexploitation and pollution are among the main causes, some disappearances cannot be explained. The extinction problem among amphibians mirrors the general, worldwide phenomenon. A synergism of insults may be responsible. Chance events such as a dry year might occasionally clean out a pond. But a larger lake nearby would replenish it. Now acid pollution adds to the ponds' burden while stocking of amphibian-eating sport fish in the lake - which happens even in natural parks - would destroy the source of replenishment. Some fear that extinctions ultimately could destroy nature's fabric.

  11. Increased Cortical Gamma-Aminobutyric Acid Precedes Incomplete Extinction of Conditioned Fear and Increased Hippocampal Excitatory Tone in a Mouse Model of Mild Traumatic Brain Injury.

    PubMed

    Schneider, Brandy L; Ghoddoussi, Farhad; Charlton, Jennifer L; Kohler, Robert J; Galloway, Matthew P; Perrine, Shane A; Conti, Alana C

    2016-09-01

    Mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) contributes to development of affective disorders, including post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Psychiatric symptoms typically emerge in a tardive fashion post-TBI, with negative effects on recovery. Patients with PTSD, as well as rodent models of PTSD, demonstrate structural and functional changes in brain regions mediating fear learning, including prefrontal cortex (PFC), amygdala (AMYG), and hippocampus (HC). These changes may reflect loss of top-down control by which PFC normally exhibits inhibitory influence over AMYG reactivity to fearful stimuli, with HC contribution. Considering the susceptibility of these regions to injury, we examined fear conditioning (FC) in the delayed post-injury period, using a mouse model of mTBI. Mice with mTBI displayed enhanced acquisition and delayed extinction of FC. Using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy ex vivo, we examined PFC, AMYG, and HC levels of gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) and glutamate as surrogate measures of inhibitory and excitatory neurotransmission, respectively. Eight days post-injury, GABA was increased in PFC, with no significant changes in AMYG. In animals receiving FC and mTBI, glutamate trended toward an increase and the GABA/glutamate ratio decreased in ventral HC at 25 days post-injury, whereas GABA decreased and GABA/glutamate decreased in dorsal HC. These neurochemical changes are consistent with early TBI-induced PFC hypoactivation facilitating the fear learning circuit and exacerbating behavioral fear responses. The latent emergence of overall increased excitatory tone in the HC, despite distinct plasticity in dorsal and ventral HC fields, may be associated with disordered memory function, manifested as incomplete extinction and enhanced FC recall. PMID:26529240

  12. A simple analysis of extinction spectra of cancerous and normal prostate tissues in near infrared range using a size discrete particle distribution and Mie scattering model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Kenneth J.; Chen, Jun

    2015-03-01

    The extinction spectra and optical coefficients of human cancerous and normal prostate tissues were investigated in the spectral range of 750 nm - 860 nm. The scattering coefficient (μs) was determined from the extinction measurements on thin prostate tissue and Beer's law. The absorption coefficient (μa) and the reduced scattering coefficient (μs') were extracted from integrate sphere intensity measurements on prostate tissue of which the thickness is in the multiple scattering range. The anisotropy factor (g) was calculated using the extracted values of μs and μs'. A micro-optical model of soft biological tissue was introduced to simulate the numerical computation of the absolute magnitudes of its scattering coefficients from the refractive index and a particle distribution function based on the Mie theory. A key assumption of the model is that the refractive index variations caused by microscopic tissue elements can be treated as particles with sizes distributed according to a skewed log-normal distribution function. The particle distribution and mean particle size of the two types of tissues were then calculated. Results show that the mean diameter of the particle size of cancerous tissue is larger than that of the cancerous tissue, which is responsible for larger reduced scattering coefficient of normal tissue in comparison with cancerous tissue. The results can be explained the change of tissue during prostate cancer evolution defined by Gleason Grade. The difference of the particles distribution and optical coefficients of cancerous and normal prostate tissues may present a potential criterion for prostate cancer detection.

  13. Extinction of the northern oceanic deep convection in an ensemble of climate model simulations of the 20th and 21st centuries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brodeau, Laurent; Koenigk, Torben

    2016-05-01

    We study the variability and the evolution of oceanic deep convection in the northern North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas from 1850 to 2100 using an ensemble of 12 climate model simulations with EC-Earth. During the historical period, the model shows a realistic localization of the main sites of deep convection, with the Labrador Sea accounting for most of the deep convective mixing in the northern hemisphere. Labrador convection is partly driven by the NAO (correlation of 0.6) and controls part of the variability of the AMOC at the decadal time scale (correlation of 0.6 when convection leads by 3-4 years). Deep convective activity in the Labrador Sea starts to decline and to become shallower in the beginning of the twentieth century. The decline is primarily caused by a decrease of the sensible heat loss to the atmosphere in winter resulting from increasingly warm atmospheric conditions. It occurs stepwise and is mainly the consequence of two severe drops in deep convective activity during the 1920s and the 1990s. These two events can both be linked to the low-frequency variability of the NAO. A warming of the sub-surface, resulting from reduced convective mixing, combines with an increasing influx of freshwater from the Nordic Seas to rapidly strengthen the surface stratification and prevent any possible resurgence of deep convection in the Labrador Sea after the 2020s. Deep convection in the Greenland Sea starts to decline in the 2020s, until complete extinction in 2100. As a response to the extinction of deep convection in the Labrador and Greenland Seas, the AMOC undergoes a linear decline at a rate of about -0.3 Sv per decade during the twenty-first century.

  14. Supernovae and mass extinctions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vandenbergh, S.

    1994-01-01

    Shklovsky and others have suggested that some of the major extinctions in the geological record might have been triggered by explosions of nearby supernovae. The frequency of such extinction events will depend on the galactic supernova frequency and on the distance up to which a supernova explosion will produce lethal effects upon terrestrial life. In the present note it will be assumed that a killer supernova has to occur so close to Earth that it will be embedded in a young, active, supernova remnant. Such young remnants typically have radii approximately less than 3 pc (1 x 10(exp 19) cm). Larger (more pessimistic?) killer radii have been adopted by Ruderman, Romig, and by Ellis and Schramm. From observations of historical supernovae, van den Bergh finds that core-collapse (types Ib and II) supernovae occur within 4 kpc of the Sun at a rate of 0.2 plus or minus 0.1 per century. Adopting a layer thickness of 0.3 kpc for the galacitc disk, this corresponds to a rate of approximately 1.3 x 10(exp -4) supernovae pc(exp -3) g.y.(exp -1). Including supernovae of type Ia will increase the total supernovae rate to approximately 1.5 x 10(exp -4) supernovae pc(exp -3) g.y.(exp -1). For a lethal radius of R pc the rate of killer events will therefore be 1.7 (R/3)(exp 3) x 10(exp -2) supernovae per g.y. However, a frequency of a few extinctions per g.y. is required to account for the extinctions observed during the phanerozoic. With R (extinction) approximately 3 pc, the galactic supernova frequency is therefore too low by 2 orders of magnitude to account for the major extinctions in the geological record.

  15. Resolving the chronology of the South African landscape through joint inverse modelling of AFT and apatite (U-Th)/He data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wildman, Mark; Brown, Roderick; Beucher, Romain; Persano, Cristina; Stuart, Finlay

    2013-04-01

    Application of Low temperature thermochronometry (LTT) is a powerful method of constraining thermal history information on samples as they pass through isotherms in the upper crust. Inverse modelling of LTT data generates thermal history information which can then be correlated with independent datasets to infer geological processes that are responsible for producing the observed thermal history held in the thermochronometry record. A critical consideration when choosing which LTT method to use are the closure temperatures associated with each system. In order to generate more complete and robust thermal histories a single sample can be analysed using multiple low temperature thermochronometers that are sensitive over different but complimentary temperature ranges. The main focus of LTT work in South Africa has been on apatite fission track (AFT) analysis which is a world renowned method of constraining thermal history information between c. 60 and 110±10°C. The general conclusions that have been drawn from the South African AFT dataset is that the present day regional topography represents an eroded remnant of an elevated interior that experienced a significant uplift event with km-scale erosion in the Cretaceous following the break-up of Gondwana [1]. The exact nature of Cretaceous uplift and erosion varies both spatially and temporally, especially in south western Africa where at least two distinct denudation events are recorded at c. 130Ma and 90 Ma [2]. There are, however, alternative views suggesting significant epeirogenic-style uplift and subsequent erosion throughout the Cenozoic [3]. A key aspect of this debate which is yet to be fully resolved is the influence of mantle dynamics on the evolution of the overlying topography. To further investigate the timing and amount of Cenozoic uplift and erosion and to what degree this can be ascribed to dynamic topography, efforts have been made to complement the existing AFT record with Apatite (U-Th)/He analysis

  16. Extinction rates of established spatial populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meerson, Baruch; Sasorov, Pavel V.

    2011-01-01

    This paper deals with extinction of an isolated population caused by intrinsic noise. We model the population dynamics in a “refuge” as a Markov process which involves births and deaths on discrete lattice sites and random migrations between neighboring sites. In extinction scenario I, the zero population size is a repelling fixed point of the on-site deterministic dynamics. In extinction scenario II, the zero population size is an attracting fixed point, corresponding to what is known in ecology as the Allee effect. Assuming a large population size, we develop a WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approximation to the master equation. The resulting Hamilton’s equations encode the most probable path of the population toward extinction and the mean time to extinction. In the fast-migration limit these equations coincide, up to a canonical transformation, with those obtained, in a different way, by Elgart and Kamenev [Phys. Rev. EPHYADX1539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.70.041106 70, 041106 (2004)]. We classify possible regimes of population extinction with and without an Allee effect and for different types of refuge, and solve several examples analytically and numerically. For a very strong Allee effect, the extinction problem can be mapped into the overdamped limit of the theory of homogeneous nucleation due to Langer [Ann. Phys. (NY)APNYA60003-491610.1016/0003-4916(69)90153-5 54, 258 (1969)]. In this regime, and for very long systems, we predict an optimal refuge size that maximizes the mean time to extinction.

  17. Properties of Dust Extinction in Starburst Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calzetti, D.; Kinney, A. L.; Storchi-Bergmann, T.; Panagia, N.

    1993-05-01

    We have studied the extinction properties of 38 starburst and Blue Compact galaxies covering the metallicity range 8.3<=log (O/H)<=9.2, by analyzing their UV+optical spectra. The UV spectra come from the compilation of IUE spectra by Kinney et al. (Kinney, Bohlin, Calzetti, Panagia, & Wyse, 1993, ApJS, to appear on the May issue). The optical spectra, spanning the wavelength range 3200-7500 Angstroms, have been observed in a IUE-matched aperture. Following standard techniques, we have derived the selective extinction E(B-V) from the Balmer decrement and the metallicity from the [OII] and [OIII] lines. In order to clarify the properties of dust extinction in the UV for starburst galaxies, we have fitted the observed UV fluxes of our galaxies in the wavelength range 1250-2600 Angstroms according to the power law F(lambda )~lambda (beta ) and studied the behaviour of beta as function of the selective extinction E(B-V). We find that these two quantities are correlated and that there is no difference between the loci occupied by the low and high metallicity galaxies in the plane beta -vs-E(B-V). The correlation indicates that a higher metallicity does not change the characteristics of individual grains, but merely increases their number. On this ground, our conclusion is that the shape of the extinction law in the UV does not depend on metallicity, for extinctions E(B-V)>0.2. Although the low metallicity galaxies in our sample follow neither the Large Magellanic Cloud nor the Small Magellanic Cloud extinction laws, the absence in our spectra of prominent 2200 Angstroms dust features illustrates that a simple application of a galactic extinction law may be inadequate to properly correct the UV spectra. Models of clumpy dust layers and of dust mixed with the ionized gas are currently under analysis.

  18. A high-precision chronological model for the decorated Upper Paleolithic cave of Chauvet-Pont d'Arc, Ardèche, France.

    PubMed

    Quiles, Anita; Valladas, Hélène; Bocherens, Hervé; Delqué-Količ, Emmanuelle; Kaltnecker, Evelyne; van der Plicht, Johannes; Delannoy, Jean-Jacques; Feruglio, Valérie; Fritz, Carole; Monney, Julien; Philippe, Michel; Tosello, Gilles; Clottes, Jean; Geneste, Jean-Michel

    2016-04-26

    Radiocarbon dates for the ancient drawings in the Chauvet-Pont d'Arc Cave revealed ages much older than expected. These early ages and nature of this Paleolithic art make this United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) site indisputably unique. A large, multidisciplinary dating program has recently mapped the anthropological evolution associated with the cave. More than 350 dates (by (14)C, U-Th, TL and (36)Cl) were obtained over the last 15 y. They include 259 radiocarbon dates, mainly related to the rock art and human activity in the cave. We present here more than 80 previously unpublished dates. All of the dates were integrated into a high-precision Bayesian model based on archaeological evidence to securely reconstruct the complete history of the Chauvet-Pont d'Arc Cave on an absolute timescale. It shows that there were two distinct periods of human activity in the cave, one from 37 to 33,500 y ago, and the other from 31 to 28,000 y ago. Cave bears also took refuge in the cave until 33,000 y ago. PMID:27071106

  19. Extinction from a paleontological perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raup, D. M.

    1993-01-01

    Extinction of widespread species is common in evolutionary time (millions of years) but rare in ecological time (hundreds or thousands of years). In the fossil record, there appears to be a smooth continuum between background and mass extinction; and the clustering of extinctions at mass extinctions cannot be explained by the chance coincidence of independent events. Although some extinction is selective, much is apparently random in that survivors have no recognizable superiority over victims. Extinction certainly plays an important role in evolution, but whether it is constructive or destructive has not yet been determined.

  20. Extinction from a paleontological perspective.

    PubMed

    Raup, D M

    1993-01-01

    Extinction of widespread species is common in evolutionary time (millions of years) but rare in ecological time (hundreds or thousands of years). In the fossil record, there appears to be a smooth continuum between background and mass extinction; and the clustering of extinctions at mass extinctions cannot be explained by the chance coincidence of independent events. Although some extinction is selective, much is apparently random in that survivors have no recognizable superiority over victims. Extinction certainly plays an important role in evolution, but whether it is constructive or destructive has not yet been determined. PMID:11539838

  1. Astronautics and aeronautics, 1985: A chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Janson, Bette R.

    1988-01-01

    This book is part of a series of annual chronologies of significant events in the fields of astronautics and aeronautics. Events covered are international as well as national, in political as well as scientific and technical areas. This series is an important reference work used by historians, NASA personnel, government agencies, and congressional staffs, as well as the media.

  2. Astronautics and aeronautics, 1976. A chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ritchie, E. H.

    1984-01-01

    A chronology of events concerning astronautics and aeronautics for the year 1976 is presented. Some of the many and varied topics include the aerospace industry, planetary exploration, space transportation system, defense department programs, politics, and aerospace medicine. The entries are organized by the month and presented in a news release format.

  3. Astronautics and aeronautics, 1978: A chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Janson, Bette R.

    1986-01-01

    This is the 18th in a series of annual chronologies of significant events in the fields of astronautics and aeronautics. Events covered are international as well as national and political as well as scientific and technical. This series is a reference work for historians, NASA personnel, government agencies, congressional staffs, and the media.

  4. A model describing the effect of sex-reversed YY fish in an established wild population: The use of a Trojan Y chromosome to cause extinction of an introduced exotic species.

    PubMed

    Gutierrez, Juan B; Teem, John L

    2006-07-21

    A novel means of inducing extinction of an exotic fish population is proposed using a genetic approach to shift the ratio of male to females within a population. In the proposed strategy, sex-reversed fish containing two Y chromosomes are introduced into a normal fish population. These YY fish result in the production of a disproportionate number of male fish in subsequent generations. Mathematical modeling of the system following introduction of YY fish at a constant rate reveals that female fish decline in numbers over time, leading to eventual extinction of the population. PMID:16406425

  5. [Characteristics and Parameterization for Atmospheric Extinction Coefficient in Beijing].

    PubMed

    Chen, Yi-na; Zhao, Pu-sheng; He, Di; Dong, Fan; Zhao, Xiu-juan; Zhang, Xiao-ling

    2015-10-01

    In order to study the characteristics of atmospheric extinction coefficient in Beijing, systematic measurements had been carried out for atmospheric visibility, PM2.5 concentration, scattering coefficient, black carbon, reactive gases, and meteorological parameters from 2013 to 2014. Based on these data, we compared some published fitting schemes of aerosol light scattering enhancement factor [ f(RH)], and discussed the characteristics and the key influence factors for atmospheric extinction coefficient. Then a set of parameterization models of atmospheric extinction coefficient for different seasons and different polluted levels had been established. The results showed that aerosol scattering accounted for more than 94% of total light extinction. In the summer and autumn, the aerosol hygroscopic growth caused by high relative humidity had increased the aerosol scattering coefficient by 70 to 80 percent. The parameterization models could reflect the influencing mechanism of aerosol and relative humidity upon ambient light extinction, and describe the seasonal variations of aerosol light extinction ability. PMID:26841588

  6. Unexpectedly many extinct hominins.

    PubMed

    Bokma, Folmer; van den Brink, Valentijn; Stadler, Tanja

    2012-09-01

    Recent studies indicate that Neanderthal and Denisova hominins may have been separate species, while debate continues on the status of Homo floresiensis. The decade-long debate between "splitters," who recognize over 20 hominin species, and "lumpers," who maintain that all these fossils belong to just a few lineages, illustrates that we do not know how many extinct hominin species to expect. Here, we present probability distributions for the number of speciation events and the number of contemporary species along a branch of a phylogeny. With estimates of hominin speciation and extincton rates, we then show that the expected total number of extinct hominin species is 8, but may be as high as 27. We also show that it is highly unlikely that three very recent species disappeared due to natural, background extinction. This may indicate that human-like remains are too easily considered distinct species. Otherwise, the evidence suggesting that Neanderthal and the Denisova hominin represent distinct species implies a recent wave of extinctions, ostensibly driven by the only survivor, H. sapiens. PMID:22946817

  7. Experimental evidence that an asteroid impact led to the extinction of many species 65 million years ago

    SciTech Connect

    Alvarez, L.W.

    1982-09-01

    The development of the theory that the mass extinction of the dinosaurs at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary was caused by an asteroid impact is reviewed. The personnel involved, the objections to the theory, and the evidence refuting those objections are presented chronologically. (ACR)

  8. Extinction Curves of Lensing Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elíasdóttir, Árdís

    2006-09-01

    Dust extinction causes light from distant sources to be dimmed on itsway to the observer. In cosmological studies, such as SN Ia studies,it is of great importance that the effects of dust extinction becorrectly accounted for. However, although dust properties, andhence extinction, are expected to vary with redshift, not very muchis known about the extinction properties of high redshift galaxies.This is because the methods traditionally used to study extinctioncurves are only applicable for the most nearby galaxies. Studyinggravitationally lensed quasars is an emerging method of studying thedust extinction of high redshift galaxies. I will present an ESO VLTstudy of 10 such lensing galaxies, with redshifts up to 1. The 10systems display varying amount and type of extinction, with thedoubly imaged quasar B1152+199 showing the greatest extinction with A(V)=2.4 and R_V=2.1 for a Galactic type extinction law.

  9. Chronology and ecology of late Pleistocene megafauna in the northern Willamette Valley, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gilmour, Daniel M.; Butler, Virginia L.; O'Connor, James E.; Davis, Edward Byrd; Culleton, Brendan J.; Kennett, Douglas J.; Hodgins, Gregory W. L.

    2015-01-01

    Since the mid-19th century, western Oregon's Willamette Valley has been a source of remains from a wide variety of extinct megafauna. Few of these have been previously described or dated, but new chronologic and isotopic analyses in conjunction with updated evaluations of stratigraphic context provide substantial new information on the species present, timing of losses, and paleoenvironmental conditions. Using subfossil material from the northern valley, we use AMS radiocarbon dating, stable isotope (δ13C and δ15N) analyses, and taxonomic dietary specialization and habitat preferences to reconstruct environments and to develop a local chronology of events that we then compare with continental and regional archaeological and paleoenvironmental data. Analysis of twelve bone specimens demonstrates the presence of bison, mammoth, horse, sloth, and mastodon from ~ 15,000–13,000 cal yr BP. The latest ages coincide with changing regional climate corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. It is suggested that cooling conditions led to increased forest cover, and, along with river aggradation, reduced the area of preferred habitat for the larger bodied herbivores, which contributed to the demise of local megafauna. Archaeological evidence for megafauna–human interactions in the Pacific Northwest is scarce, limiting our ability to address the human role in causing extinction.

  10. Time and Chronology Skills for Elementary School Social Studies Classes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dianna, Michael A.

    Because all social studies classes require competence in time and chronology concepts, a sampling of ideas that elementary social studies teachers can use to help children understand time and chronology are presented followed by a list of skills necessary to help children understand the time system, the calendar, and chronology. Examples of…

  11. Candesartan ameliorates impaired fear extinction induced by innate immune activation.

    PubMed

    Quiñones, María M; Maldonado, Lizette; Velazquez, Bethzaly; Porter, James T

    2016-02-01

    Patients with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) tend to show signs of a relatively increased inflammatory state suggesting that activation of the immune system may contribute to the development of PTSD. In the present study, we tested whether activation of the innate immune system can disrupt acquisition or recall of auditory fear extinction using an animal model of PTSD. Male adolescent rats received auditory fear conditioning in context A. The next day, an intraperitoneal injection of lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 100 μg/kg) prior to auditory fear extinction in context B impaired acquisition and recall of extinction. LPS (100 μg/kg) given after extinction training did not impair extinction recall suggesting that LPS did not affect consolidation of extinction. In contrast to cued fear extinction, contextual fear extinction was not affected by prior injection of LPS (100 μg/kg). Although LPS also reduced locomotion, we could dissociate the effects of LPS on extinction and locomotion by using a lower dose of LPS (50 μg/kg) which impaired locomotion without affecting extinction. In addition, 15 h after an injection of 250 μg/kg LPS in adult rats, extinction learning and recall were impaired without affecting locomotion. A sub-chronic treatment with candesartan, an angiotensin II type 1 receptor blocker, prevented the LPS-induced impairment of extinction in adult rats. Our results demonstrate that activation of the innate immune system can disrupt auditory fear extinction in adolescent and adult animals. These findings also provide direction for clinical studies of novel treatments that modulate the innate immune system for stress-related disorders like PTSD. PMID:26520214

  12. Genetic disruptions of Drosophila Pavlovian learning leave extinction learning intact.

    PubMed

    Qin, H; Dubnau, J

    2010-03-01

    Individuals who experience traumatic events may develop persistent posttraumatic stress disorder. Patients with this disorder are commonly treated with exposure therapy, which has had limited long-term success. In experimental neurobiology, fear extinction is a model for exposure therapy. In this behavioral paradigm, animals are repeatedly exposed in a safe environment to the fearful stimulus, which leads to greatly reduced fear. Studying animal models of extinction already has lead to better therapeutic strategies and development of new candidate drugs. Lack of a powerful genetic model of extinction, however, has limited progress in identifying underlying molecular and genetic factors. In this study, we established a robust behavioral paradigm to study the short-term effect (acquisition) of extinction in Drosophila melanogaster. We focused on the extinction of olfactory aversive 1-day memory with a task that has been the main workhorse for genetics of memory in flies. Using this paradigm, we show that extinction can inhibit each of two genetically distinct forms of consolidated memory. We then used a series of single-gene mutants with known impact on associative learning to examine the effects on extinction. We find that extinction is intact in each of these mutants, suggesting that extinction learning relies on different molecular mechanisms than does Pavlovian learning. PMID:20015341

  13. Mass Extinctions Past and Present.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Allmon, Warren Douglas

    1987-01-01

    Discusses some parallels that seem to exist between mass extinction recognizable in the geologic record and the impending extinction of a significant proportion of the earth's species due largely to tropical deforestation. Describes some recent theories of causal factors and periodicities in mass extinction. (Author/TW)

  14. Magnitude and variation of prehistoric bird extinctions in the Pacific

    PubMed Central

    Duncan, Richard P.; Boyer, Alison G.; Blackburn, Tim M.

    2013-01-01

    The largest extinction event in the Holocene occurred on Pacific islands, where Late Quaternary fossils reveal the loss of thousands of bird populations following human colonization of the region. However, gaps in the fossil record mean that considerable uncertainty surrounds the magnitude and pattern of these extinctions. We use a Bayesian mark-recapture approach to model gaps in the fossil record and to quantify losses of nonpasserine landbirds on 41 Pacific islands. Two-thirds of the populations on these islands went extinct in the period between first human arrival and European contact, with extinction rates linked to island and species characteristics that increased susceptibility to hunting and habitat destruction. We calculate that human colonization of remote Pacific islands caused the global extinction of close to 1,000 species of nonpasserine landbird alone; nonpasserine seabird and passerine extinctions will add to this total. PMID:23530197

  15. Abrupt climate change and extinction events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crowley, Thomas J.

    1988-01-01

    There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

  16. Three-dimensional dust aerosol distribution and extinction climatology over northern Africa simulated with the ALADIN numerical prediction model from 2006 to 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mokhtari, M.; Tulet, P.; Fischer, C.; Bouteloup, Y.; Bouyssel, F.; Brachemi, O.

    2015-08-01

    The seasonal cycle and optical properties of mineral dust aerosols in northern Africa were simulated for the period from 2006 to 2010 using the numerical atmospheric model ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational) coupled to the surface scheme SURFEX (SURFace EXternalisée). The particularity of the simulations is that the major physical processes responsible for dust emission and transport, as well as radiative effects, are taken into account on short timescales and at mesoscale resolution. The aim of these simulations is to quantify the dust emission and deposition, locate the major areas of dust emission and establish a climatology of aerosol optical properties in northern Africa. The mean monthly aerosol optical thickness (AOT) simulated by ALADIN is compared with the AOTs derived from the standard Dark Target (DT) and Deep Blue (DB) algorithms of the Aqua-MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products over northern Africa and with a set of sun photometer measurements located at Banizoumbou, Cinzana, Soroa, Mbour and Cape Verde. The vertical distribution of dust aerosol represented by extinction profiles is also analysed using CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) observations. The annual dust emission simulated by ALADIN over northern Africa is 878 Tg year-1. The Bodélé Depression appears to be the main area of dust emission in northern Africa, with an average estimate of about 21.6 Tg year-1. The simulated AOTs are in good agreement with satellite and sun photometer observations. The positions of the maxima of the modelled AOTs over northern Africa match the observed positions, and the ALADIN simulations satisfactorily reproduce the various dust events over the 2006-2010 period. The AOT climatology proposed in this paper provides a solid database of optical properties and consolidates the existing climatology over this region derived from satellites, the AERONET network and regional climate

  17. Revisiting the role of infralimbic cortex in fear extinction with optogenetics.

    PubMed

    Do-Monte, Fabricio H; Manzano-Nieves, Gabriela; Quiñones-Laracuente, Kelvin; Ramos-Medina, Liorimar; Quirk, Gregory J

    2015-02-25

    Previous rodent studies have implicated the infralimbic (IL) subregion of the medial prefrontal cortex in extinction of auditory fear conditioning. However, these studies used pharmacological inactivation or electrical stimulation techniques, which lack temporal precision and neuronal specificity. Here, we used an optogenetic approach to either activate (with channelrhodopsin) or silence (with halorhodopsin) glutamatergic IL neurons during conditioned tones delivered in one of two phases: extinction training or extinction retrieval. Activating IL neurons during extinction training reduced fear expression and strengthened extinction memory the following day. Silencing IL neurons during extinction training had no effect on within-session extinction, but impaired the retrieval of extinction the following day, indicating that IL activity during extinction tones is necessary for the formation of extinction memory. Surprisingly, however, silencing IL neurons optogenetically or pharmacologically during the retrieval of extinction 1 day or 1 week following extinction training had no effect. Our findings suggest that IL activity during extinction training likely facilitates storage of extinction in target structures, but contrary to current models, IL activity does not appear to be necessary for retrieval of extinction memory. PMID:25716859

  18. Lessons from the past: Biotic recoveries from mass extinctions

    PubMed Central

    Erwin, Douglas H.

    2001-01-01

    Although mass extinctions probably account for the disappearance of less than 5% of all extinct species, the evolutionary opportunities they have created have had a disproportionate effect on the history of life. Theoretical considerations and simulations have suggested that the empty niches created by a mass extinction should refill rapidly after extinction ameliorates. Under logistic models, this biotic rebound should be exponential, slowing as the environmental carrying capacity is approached. Empirical studies reveal a more complex dynamic, including positive feedback and an exponential growth phase during recoveries. Far from a model of refilling ecospace, mass extinctions appear to cause a collapse of ecospace, which must be rebuilt during recovery. Other generalities include the absence of a clear correlation between the magnitude of extinction and the pace of recovery or the resulting ecological and evolutionary disruption the presence of a survival interval, with few originations, immediately after an extinction and preceding the recovery phase, and the presence of many lineages that persist through an extinction event only to disappear during the subsequent recovery. Several recoveries include numerous missing lineages, groups that are found before the extinction, then latter in the recovery, but are missing during the initial survival–recovery phase. The limited biogeographic studies of recoveries suggest considerable variability between regions. PMID:11344285

  19. Lessons from the past: biotic recoveries from mass extinctions.

    PubMed

    Erwin, D H

    2001-05-01

    Although mass extinctions probably account for the disappearance of less than 5% of all extinct species, the evolutionary opportunities they have created have had a disproportionate effect on the history of life. Theoretical considerations and simulations have suggested that the empty niches created by a mass extinction should refill rapidly after extinction ameliorates. Under logistic models, this biotic rebound should be exponential, slowing as the environmental carrying capacity is approached. Empirical studies reveal a more complex dynamic, including positive feedback and an exponential growth phase during recoveries. Far from a model of refilling ecospace, mass extinctions appear to cause a collapse of ecospace, which must be rebuilt during recovery. Other generalities include the absence of a clear correlation between the magnitude of extinction and the pace of recovery or the resulting ecological and evolutionary disruption the presence of a survival interval, with few originations, immediately after an extinction and preceding the recovery phase, and the presence of many lineages that persist through an extinction event only to disappear during the subsequent recovery. Several recoveries include numerous missing lineages, groups that are found before the extinction, then latter in the recovery, but are missing during the initial survival-recovery phase. The limited biogeographic studies of recoveries suggest considerable variability between regions. PMID:11344285

  20. Rapidly moving cosmic strings and chronology protection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ori, Amos

    1991-10-01

    Recently, Gott has provided a family of solutions of the Einstein equations describing pairs of parallel cosmic strings in motion. He has shown that if the strings' relative velocity is sufficiently high, there exist closed timelike curves (CTC's) in the spacetime. Here we show that if there are CTC's in such a solution, then every t=const hypersurface in the spacetime intersects CTC's. Therefore, these solutions do not contradict the chronology protection conjecture of Hawking.

  1. Lumbar lordosis of extinct hominins.

    PubMed

    Been, Ella; Gómez-Olivencia, Asier; Kramer, Patricia A

    2012-01-01

    The lordotic curvature of the lumbar spine (lumbar lordosis) in humans is a critical component in the ability to achieve upright posture and bipedal gait. Only general estimates of the lordotic angle (LA) of extinct hominins are currently available, most of which are based on the wedging of the vertebral bodies. Recently, a new method for calculating the LA in skeletal material has become available. This method is based on the relationship between the lordotic curvature and the orientation of the inferior articular processes relative to vertebral bodies in the lumbar spines of living primates. Using this relationship, we developed new regression models in order to calculate the LAs in hominins. The new models are based on primate group-means and were used to calculate the LAs in the spines of eight extinct hominins. The results were also compared with the LAs of modern humans and modern nonhuman apes. The lordotic angles of australopithecines (41° ± 4), H. erectus (45°) and fossil H. sapiens (54° ± 14) are similar to those of modern humans (51° ± 11). This analysis confirms the assumption that human-like lordotic curvature was a morphological change that took place during the acquisition of erect posture and bipedalism as the habitual form of locomotion. Neandertals have smaller lordotic angles (LA = 29° ± 4) than modern humans, but higher angles than nonhuman apes (22° ± 3). This suggests possible subtle differences in Neandertal posture and locomotion from that of modern humans. PMID:22052243

  2. Insights into Holocene megafauna survival and extinction in southeastern Brazil from new AMS 14C dates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hubbe, Alex; Hubbe, Mark; Karmann, Ivo; Cruz, Francisco W.; Neves, Walter A.

    2013-03-01

    The extinction of late Quaternary megafauna in South America has been extensively debated in past decades. The majority of the hypotheses explaining this phenomenon argue that the extinction was the result of human activities, environmental changes, or even synergism between the two. Although still limited, a good chronological framework is imperative to discuss the plausibility of the available hypotheses. Here we present six new direct AMS 14C radiocarbon dates from the state of São Paulo (Brazil) to further characterize the chronological distribution of extinct fauna in this part of South America. The new dates make evident that ground sloths, toxodonts, and saber-toothed cats lived in the region around the Pleistocene/Holocene transition, and, in agreement with previous studies, also suggest an early Holocene survival for the ground sloth Catonyx cuvieri. Taken together with local paleoclimatic and archaeological data, the new dates do not support hunting or indirect human activities as a major cause for megafauna extinction. Although more data are required, parsimony suggests that climatic changes played a major role in this extinction event.

  3. Are cranial biomechanical simulation data linked to known diets in extant taxa? A method for applying diet-biomechanics linkage models to infer feeding capability of extinct species.

    PubMed

    Tseng, Zhijie Jack; Flynn, John J

    2015-01-01

    Performance of the masticatory system directly influences feeding and survival, so adaptive hypotheses often are proposed to explain craniodental evolution via functional morphology changes. However, the prevalence of "many-to-one" association of cranial forms and functions in vertebrates suggests a complex interplay of ecological and evolutionary histories, resulting in redundant morphology-diet linkages. Here we examine the link between cranial biomechanical properties for taxa with different dietary preferences in crown clade Carnivora, the most diverse clade of carnivorous mammals. We test whether hypercarnivores and generalists can be distinguished based on cranial mechanical simulation models, and how such diet-biomechanics linkages relate to morphology. Comparative finite element and geometric morphometrics analyses document that predicted bite force is positively allometric relative to skull strain energy; this is achieved in part by increased stiffness in larger skull models and shape changes that resist deformation and displacement. Size-standardized strain energy levels do not reflect feeding preferences; instead, caniform models have higher strain energy than feliform models. This caniform-feliform split is reinforced by a sensitivity analysis using published models for six additional taxa. Nevertheless, combined bite force-strain energy curves distinguish hypercarnivorous versus generalist feeders. These findings indicate that the link between cranial biomechanical properties and carnivoran feeding preference can be clearly defined and characterized, despite phylogenetic and allometric effects. Application of this diet-biomechanics linkage model to an analysis of an extinct stem carnivoramorphan and an outgroup creodont species provides biomechanical evidence for the evolution of taxa into distinct hypercarnivorous and generalist feeding styles prior to the appearance of crown carnivoran clades with similar feeding preferences. PMID:25923776

  4. Are Cranial Biomechanical Simulation Data Linked to Known Diets in Extant Taxa? A Method for Applying Diet-Biomechanics Linkage Models to Infer Feeding Capability of Extinct Species

    PubMed Central

    Tseng, Zhijie Jack; Flynn, John J.

    2015-01-01

    Performance of the masticatory system directly influences feeding and survival, so adaptive hypotheses often are proposed to explain craniodental evolution via functional morphology changes. However, the prevalence of “many-to-one” association of cranial forms and functions in vertebrates suggests a complex interplay of ecological and evolutionary histories, resulting in redundant morphology-diet linkages. Here we examine the link between cranial biomechanical properties for taxa with different dietary preferences in crown clade Carnivora, the most diverse clade of carnivorous mammals. We test whether hypercarnivores and generalists can be distinguished based on cranial mechanical simulation models, and how such diet-biomechanics linkages relate to morphology. Comparative finite element and geometric morphometrics analyses document that predicted bite force is positively allometric relative to skull strain energy; this is achieved in part by increased stiffness in larger skull models and shape changes that resist deformation and displacement. Size-standardized strain energy levels do not reflect feeding preferences; instead, caniform models have higher strain energy than feliform models. This caniform-feliform split is reinforced by a sensitivity analysis using published models for six additional taxa. Nevertheless, combined bite force-strain energy curves distinguish hypercarnivorous versus generalist feeders. These findings indicate that the link between cranial biomechanical properties and carnivoran feeding preference can be clearly defined and characterized, despite phylogenetic and allometric effects. Application of this diet-biomechanics linkage model to an analysis of an extinct stem carnivoramorphan and an outgroup creodont species provides biomechanical evidence for the evolution of taxa into distinct hypercarnivorous and generalist feeding styles prior to the appearance of crown carnivoran clades with similar feeding preferences. PMID:25923776

  5. On the chronology of the Uluzzian.

    PubMed

    Douka, Katerina; Higham, Thomas F G; Wood, Rachel; Boscato, Paolo; Gambassini, Paolo; Karkanas, Panagiotis; Peresani, Marco; Ronchitelli, Anna Maria

    2014-03-01

    The Uluzzian, one of Europe's 'transitional' technocomplexes, has gained particular significance over the past three years when the only human remains associated with it were attributed to modern humans, instead of Neanderthals as previously thought. The position of the Uluzzian at stratified sequences, always overlying late Mousterian layers and underlying early Upper Palaeolithic ones, highlights its significance in understanding the passage from the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic, as well as the replacement of Neanderthals by modern humans in southeastern Mediterranean Europe. Despite several studies investigating aspects of its lithic techno-typology, taxonomy and material culture, the Uluzzian chronology has remained extremely poorly-known, based on a handful of dubious chronometric determinations. Here we aim to elucidate the chronological aspect of the technocomplex by presenting an integrated synthesis of new radiocarbon results and a Bayesian statistical approach from four stratified Uluzzian cave sequences in Italy and Greece (Cavallo, Fumane, Castelcivita and Klissoura 1). In addition to building a reliable chronological framework for the Uluzzian, we examine its appearance, tempo-spatial spread and correlation to previous and later Palaeolithic assemblages (Mousterian, Protoaurignacian) at the relevant regions. We conclude that the Uluzzian arrived in Italy and Greece shortly before 45,000 years ago and its final stages are placed at ∼39,500 years ago, its end synchronous (if not slightly earlier) with the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption. PMID:24513033

  6. A current overview of cannabinoids and glucocorticoids in facilitating extinction of aversive memories: potential extinction enhancers.

    PubMed

    de Bitencourt, Rafael Mariano; Pamplona, Fabrício Alano; Takahashi, Reinaldo Naoto

    2013-01-01

    Emotional learning is extremely important for the survival of an individual. However, once acquired, emotional associations are not always expressed. The regulation of emotional responses under different environmental conditions is essential for mental health. Indeed, pathologic feelings of fear and anxiety are defining features of many serious psychiatric illness, including post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and specific phobias. The simplest form of regulation of emotional responses is extinction, in which the conditioned response to a stimulus decreases when reinforcement (stimulus) is omitted. In addition to modulating basal anxiety states, recent studies suggest an important role for the endocannabinoid (eCB) and glucocorticoid systems in the modulation of emotional states and extinction of aversive memories in animals. The purpose of this review is to briefly outline the animal models of fear extinction and to describe how these have been used to examine the potential of extinction enhancing agents which specifically alter the eCB and glucocorticoid systems. Pharmacological manipulations of these systems by agents such as cannabinoid or glucocorticoid agonists can enhance the extinction process and avoid the retention of memories which have the potential to trigger trauma. A better understanding of these findings through animal models highlights the possibilities of using combined extinction enhancing agents in exposure-based psychotherapies for anxiety disorders related to inappropriate retention of aversive memories. This article is part of a special issue entitled 'Cognitive Enhancers'. PMID:22687521

  7. Biogeographic and bathymetric determinants of brachiopod extinction and survival during the Late Ordovician mass extinction.

    PubMed

    Finnegan, Seth; Rasmussen, Christian M Ø; Harper, David A T

    2016-04-27

    The Late Ordovician mass extinction (LOME) coincided with dramatic climate changes, but there are numerous ways in which these changes could have driven marine extinctions. We use a palaeobiogeographic database of rhynchonelliform brachiopods to examine the selectivity of Late Ordovician-Early Silurian genus extinctions and evaluate which extinction drivers are best supported by the data. The first (latest Katian) pulse of the LOME preferentially affected genera restricted to deeper waters or to relatively narrow (less than 35°) palaeolatitudinal ranges. This pattern is only observed in the latest Katian, suggesting that it reflects drivers unique to this interval. Extinction of exclusively deeper-water genera implies that changes in water mass properties such as dissolved oxygen content played an important role. Extinction of genera with narrow latitudinal ranges suggests that interactions between shifting climate zones and palaeobiogeography may also have been important. We test the latter hypothesis by estimating whether each genus would have been able to track habitats within its thermal tolerance range during the greenhouse-icehouse climate transition. Models including these estimates are favoured over alternative models. We argue that the LOME, long regarded as non-selective, is highly selective along biogeographic and bathymetric axes that are not closely correlated with taxonomic identity. PMID:27122567

  8. The Possible Role of Climatic Changes In Later Pleistocene Human Evolution and Extinctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stringer, C.

    Problems of chronological resolution greatly restrict our ability to match the Pleis- tocene fossil human succession to detailed palaeoclimatic records. This talk will ad- dress two relevant research areas. The first concerns the ancient human occupation of Britain, now the focus of a specific project (AHOB). Human occupation of Britain was influenced by two main factors, palaeogeography (particularly in relation to the periodic absence of a land bridge, largely controlled by climate) and palaeoclimate (particularly influenced by conditions in the North Atlantic). The second area con- cerns the European extinction of the Neanderthals and their replacement by modern humans. Particularly in the latter case, if we can move beyond reliance on uncalibrated radiocarbon chronologies, we may eventually be able to correlate human demographic changes, including Neanderthal extinction, with rapid climatic fluctuations.

  9. Extinction risks of Amazonian plant species.

    PubMed

    Feeley, Kenneth J; Silman, Miles R

    2009-07-28

    Estimates of the number, and preferably the identity, of species that will be threatened by land-use change and habitat loss are an invaluable tool for setting conservation priorities. Here, we use collections data and ecoregion maps to generate spatially explicit distributions for more than 40,000 vascular plant species from the Amazon basin (representing more than 80% of the estimated Amazonian plant diversity). Using the distribution maps, we then estimate the rates of habitat loss and associated extinction probabilities due to land-use changes as modeled under 2 disturbance scenarios. We predict that by 2050, human land-use practices will have reduced the habitat available to Amazonian plant species by approximately 12-24%, resulting in 5-9% of species becoming "committed to extinction," significantly fewer than other recent estimates. Contrary to previous studies, we find that the primary determinant of habitat loss and extinction risk is not the size of a species' range, but rather its location. The resulting extinction risk estimates are a valuable conservation tool because they indicate not only the total percentage of Amazonian plant species threatened with extinction but also the degree to which individual species and habitats will be affected by current and future land-use changes. PMID:19617552

  10. Uncoupling reproduction from metabolism extends chronological lifespan in yeast.

    PubMed

    Nagarajan, Saisubramanian; Kruckeberg, Arthur L; Schmidt, Karen H; Kroll, Evgueny; Hamilton, Morgan; McInnerney, Kate; Summers, Ryan; Taylor, Timothy; Rosenzweig, Frank

    2014-04-15

    Studies of replicative and chronological lifespan in Saccharomyces cerevisiae have advanced understanding of longevity in all eukaryotes. Chronological lifespan in this species is defined as the age-dependent viability of nondividing cells. To date this parameter has only been estimated under calorie restriction, mimicked by starvation. Because postmitotic cells in higher eukaryotes often do not starve, we developed a model yeast system to study cells as they age in the absence of calorie restriction. Yeast cells were encapsulated in a matrix consisting of calcium alginate to form ∼3 mm beads that were packed into bioreactors and fed ad libitum. Under these conditions cells ceased to divide, became heat shock and zymolyase resistant, yet retained high fermentative capacity. Over the course of 17 d, immobilized yeast cells maintained >95% viability, whereas the viability of starving, freely suspended (planktonic) cells decreased to <10%. Immobilized cells exhibited a stable pattern of gene expression that differed markedly from growing or starving planktonic cells, highly expressing genes in glycolysis, cell wall remodeling, and stress resistance, but decreasing transcription of genes in the tricarboxylic acid cycle, and genes that regulate the cell cycle, including master cyclins CDC28 and CLN1. Stress resistance transcription factor MSN4 and its upstream effector RIM15 are conspicuously up-regulated in the immobilized state, and an immobilized rim15 knockout strain fails to exhibit the long-lived, growth-arrested phenotype, suggesting that altered regulation of the Rim15-mediated nutrient-sensing pathway plays an important role in extending yeast chronological lifespan under calorie-unrestricted conditions. PMID:24706810

  11. The loss of indirect interactions leads to cascading extinctions of carnivores.

    PubMed

    Sanders, Dirk; Sutter, Louis; van Veen, F J Frank

    2013-05-01

    Species extinctions are biased towards higher trophic levels, and primary extinctions are often followed by unexpected secondary extinctions. Currently, predictions on the vulnerability of ecological communities to extinction cascades are based on models that focus on bottom-up effects, which cannot capture the effects of extinctions at higher trophic levels. We show, in experimental insect communities, that harvesting of single carnivorous parasitoid species led to a significant increase in extinction rate of other parasitoid species, separated by four trophic links. Harvesting resulted in the release of prey from top-down control, leading to increased interspecific competition at the herbivore trophic level. This resulted in increased extinction rates of non-harvested parasitoid species when their host had become rare relative to other herbivores. The results demonstrate a mechanism for horizontal extinction cascades, and illustrate that altering the relationship between a predator and its prey can cause wide-ranging ripple effects through ecosystems, including unexpected extinctions. PMID:23445500

  12. Mass extinction caused by large bolide impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alvarez, Luis W.

    1987-01-01

    A history and development status assessment is presented for the hypothesis that the great extinction of living species 65 million years ago, at the boundary between the Tertiary and Cretaceous geological ages, was due to the collision of a meteoroid, asteroid, or comet with the earth. The initial, deeply suggestive indication of the extraterrestial origin of the extinction-initiating mechanism was the detection of an exceptionally high concentration of iridium at the stratigraphic position of the extinction. Detailed computer modeling of the atmospheric effect of such a bolide impact has shown that the earth would have first grown intensely cold during a period of darkness due to particulate debris clouds in the upper atmosphere, followed by an enormous increase in global temperatures as the debris cleared, created by the persistence of greenhouse-effect gases; this heating would have been especially lethal to numerous forms of life.

  13. Deev Jahi Model of the Permian Triassic boundary mass extinction: a case for gas hydrates as the main cause of biological crisis on Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heydari, E.; Hassanzadeh, J.

    2003-12-01

    The smoking gun revealing the secrets of the end-Permian mass mortality is a unique 1-2-m-thick layer consisting of 5-20-cm-long crystals of calcite that occurs precisely at the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) in Iran, Armenia, Turkey, and China. This layer is interpreted as synsedimentary, abiotic, seafloor cement indicative of precipitation from a highly carbonate supersaturated seawater. Its δ13C composition ( δ13C=0‰ PDB) is 4‰ to 5‰ PDB lower than the typical Upper Permian values (4‰ to 5‰ PDB), suggesting the involvement of massive amounts of gas hydrate CH 4 ( δ13C=-60‰ PDB). The temporal coincidence of the cement layer with the PTB suggests that the process that promoted seafloor cementation was also responsible for the biological crisis. A cementation model is developed based on accumulation-dissociation cycle of gas hydrates which also explains the mass extinction at the PTB. The Upper Permian accumulation period of gas hydrates ended abruptly adjacent to the PTB and the dissociation event began releasing 3.2 to 4.7×10 18 g CH 4 into the ocean. Oxidation of CH 4 in the water column created a seawater that was charged with CO 2 (an oceanic acid bath) and had lower than normal O 2 content (but not anoxic). This oceanic acid bath first dissolved suspended fine-grained carbonate particles and small calcareous organisms, followed by extensive dissolution of platform carbonates raising Ca 2+ and HCO 3- concentrations of seawater. When the release of CH 4 declined, the acid-bath ocean became a soda ocean precipitating massive amount of seafloor cements observed globally at the PTB. The study suggests that prior to cement precipitation, the PTB ocean was charged with CO 2, warm, had low oxygen, high Ca 2+, and high HCO 3- concentrations. These conditions collectively created stressful conditions causing the marine mass mortality. The leakage of CH 4 to the atmosphere produced a super-hot climate resulting in the biological devastation on land. The

  14. Catastrophic extinction, noise-stabilized turbulence and unpredictability of competition in a modified Volterra-Lotka model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goryachev, A. B.; Polezhaev, A. A.; Chernavskii, D. S.

    1996-03-01

    Spatial coexistence and competition among species is investigated through a modified Volterra-Lotka model which takes into account sexual breeding. This allows the population specific growth rate to depend on the population density. As a result of this modification the degeneracy inherent in the classical model is eliminated and qualitatively novel regimes are observed, as demonstrated by parametric analysis of the model. In the case where the corresponding parameters of competing species do not differ significantly the model can be reduced to a single Ginzburg-Landau type equation. The spatially distributed model is analyzed both in the absence and in the presence of noise mimicking inherent fluctuations in birth and death rates. It is shown that noise can qualitatively change the behavior of the system. Not only does it induce the formation of spatial patterns, but also switches on endless turbulent-like rearrangement of the system. When initially unpopulated habitat is occupied by competing species even a very low-intensity noise makes the final state of the system totally unpredictable and sensitive to any fluctuations.

  15. Impaired fear extinction learning and cortico-amygdala circuit abnormalities in a common genetic mouse strain

    PubMed Central

    Hefner, Kathryn; Whittle, Nigel; Juhasz, Jaynann; Norcross, Maxine; Karlsson, Rose-Marie; Saksida, Lisa M.; Bussey, Timothy J.; Singewald, Nicolas; Holmes, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    Fear extinction is a form of new learning that results in the inhibition of conditioned fear. Trait deficits in fear extinction are a risk factor for anxiety disorders. There are few examples of naturally-occurring animal models of impaired extinction. The present study compared fear extinction in a panel of inbred mouse strains. This strain survey revealed an impairment in fear extinction in 129/SvImJ (129S1). The phenotypic specificity of this deficit was evaluated by comparing 129S1 and C57BL/6J for one-trial and multi-trial fear conditioning, nociception, and extinction of conditioned taste aversion (CTA) and an appetitive instrumental response. 129S1 were tested for sensitivity to the extinction-facilitating effects of extended training, as well as D-cycloserine and yohimbine treatment. To elucidate the neural basis of impaired 129S1 fear extinction, c-Fos and Zif268 expression was mapped following extinction recall. Results showed that impaired fear extinction in 129S1 was unrelated to altered fear conditioning or nociception, and was dissociable from intact appetitive extinction. Yohimbine treatment facilitated extinction in 129S1, but neither extended extinction training nor D-cycloserine treatment improved 129S1 extinction. Following extinction recall, 129S1 showed reduced c-Fos and Zif268 expression in the infralimbic cortex and basolateral amygdala, and elevated c-Fos or Zif268 expression in central nucleus of the amygdala and medial paracapsular intercalated cell mass, relative to C57BL/6J. Collectively, these data demonstrate a deficit in fear extinction in 129S1 associated with a failure to properly engage corticolimbic extinction circuitry. This common inbred strain provides a novel model for studying impaired fear extinction in anxiety disorders. PMID:18685032

  16. Attentional, Associative, and Configural Mechanisms in Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larrauri, Jose A.; Schmajuk, Nestor A.

    2008-01-01

    The participation of attentional and associative mechanisms in extinction, spontaneous recovery, external disinhibition, renewal, reinstatement, and reacquisition was evaluated through computer simulations with an extant computational model of classical conditioning (N. A. Schmajuk, Y. Lam, & J. A. Gray, 1996; N. A. Schmajuk & J. A. Larrauri,…

  17. Chronology of the early solar system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trieloff, M.

    2008-09-01

    Radioisotope chronologies from both long-lived nuclides (238,235U-206,207Pb, 40K-40Ar [1,2,3]) and shortlived radionuclides (129Xe from 129I; half-live T1/2=16 Myr [4,5], excess 26Mg from 26Al; T1/2=0.73 Myr [6], 53Cr from 53Mn; T1/2=3.7 Myr [7], 182Hf from 182W; T1/2=9 Myr [8,9]) provide a framework for the formation of solids in the early solar system. We present an early solar system chronology based on the calibration of short-lived isotope chronometries to several tie points (CAIs, H chondrites, Acapulco), and planetesimal heating in the early solar system [3,10]. Conditions of formation of the first solids in the solar nebula varied - most probably due to p,T differences imposed by the early sun - with radial distance and/or time, and caused the compositional variety of planetesimals concerning refractory and volatile elements, metals, Mg-rich silicates, and probably also oxygen isotopes [10,11,12]. Radiometric dating and chemical composition suggest that individual planetesimals grew rapidly in the asteroid belt (within < 1 Myr), but different planetesimals formed over a time interval of 4 million years [3,9,10], well within the lifetime of protoplanetary dust disks in extrasolar systems [13,14]. Early planetesimals were heated to varying degrees by decay heat of short-lived nuclides (primarily 26Al) [3]. This caused melting and differentiation in early (within < 2 Ma after CAIs) formed planetesimals and led to the formation of iron cores and basaltic rocks, while planetesimals that accreted later remained undifferentiated [3,9,10]. Chondritic parent bodies experienced severe thermal metamorphism in the case of ordinary chondrites, and aqueous alteration (further modifying the oxygen isotopic composition) in the case of carbonaceous chondrites. As most chondrules were immediately consumed in accreting planetesimals, they were only preserved in unmelted chondritic parent bodies and their age distribution is biased to the formation time interval of chondrites

  18. Approaches to chronological age assessment based on dental calcification.

    PubMed

    Bolanos, M V; Manrique, M C; Bolanos, M J; Briones, M T

    2000-05-15

    The aim of the present study was to find an accurate estimation of chronological age using a small number of selected teeth. For this purpose, the method devised by Nolla [C. Nolla, The development of the permanent teeth, J. Dent. Child. 27 (1960) 254-266.] was used: the development of each of the teeth was determined according to this method on 374 radiographs, 195 of boys (mean age 8.59) and 179 of girls (mean age 8.75). The 28 variables representing the calcification stages were analyzed using cluster analysis followed by multivariate analysis (multiple linear regression model). Patient age was considered to be a dependent variable. Our study showed that antimere teeth are the most homogeneous as regards stages of development. The prediction was more accurate for boys and girls below 10 years of age, using teeth 21, 43 and 46 from boys and teeth 21, 46 and 47 from girls. These teeth accounted for 80% total variance of chronological age for dental calcification. Standard error was +/-1.4 years for boys and +/-1.2 years for girls. When the age of the children remained completely unknown, the best estimates were provided by teeth 43, 47, 46 and 44 from boys and teeth 44, 47 and 43 from girls. PMID:10808098

  19. High-precision timeline for Earth's most severe extinction.

    PubMed

    Burgess, Seth D; Bowring, Samuel; Shen, Shu-zhong

    2014-03-01

    The end-Permian mass extinction was the most severe loss of marine and terrestrial biota in the last 542 My. Understanding its cause and the controls on extinction/recovery dynamics depends on an accurate and precise age model. U-Pb zircon dates for five volcanic ash beds from the Global Stratotype Section and Point for the Permian-Triassic boundary at Meishan, China, define an age model for the extinction and allow exploration of the links between global environmental perturbation, carbon cycle disruption, mass extinction, and recovery at millennial timescales. The extinction occurred between 251.941 ± 0.037 and 251.880 ± 0.031 Mya, an interval of 60 ± 48 ka. Onset of a major reorganization of the carbon cycle immediately precedes the initiation of extinction and is punctuated by a sharp (3‰), short-lived negative spike in the isotopic composition of carbonate carbon. Carbon cycle volatility persists for ∼500 ka before a return to near preextinction values. Decamillenial to millennial level resolution of the mass extinction and its aftermath will permit a refined evaluation of the relative roles of rate-dependent processes contributing to the extinction, allowing insight into postextinction ecosystem expansion, and establish an accurate time point for evaluating the plausibility of trigger and kill mechanisms. PMID:24516148

  20. Periodicity in marine extinction events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sepkoski, J. John, Jr.; Raup, David M.

    1986-01-01

    The periodicity of extinction events is examined in detail. In particular, the temporal distribution of specific, identifiable extinction events is analyzed. The nature and limitations of the data base on the global fossil record is discussed in order to establish limits of resolution in statistical analyses. Peaks in extinction intensity which appear to differ significantly from background levels are considered, and new analyses of the temporal distribution of these peaks are presented. Finally, some possible causes of periodicity and of interdependence among extinction events over the last quarter billion years of earth history are examined.

  1. The impact of mass extinctions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Flessa, Karl W.

    1988-01-01

    In the years since Snowbird an explosive growth of research on the patterns, causes, and consequences of extinction was seen. The fossil record of extinction is better known, stratigraphic sections were scrutinized in great detail, and additional markers of environmental change were discovered in the rock record. However flawed, the fossil record is the only record that exists of natural extinction. Compilations from the primary literature contain a faint periodic signal: the extinctions of the past 250 my may be regulary spaced. The reality of the periodicity remains a subject for debate. The implications of periodicity are so profound that the debate is sure to continue. The greater precision from stratigraphic sections spanning extinction events has yet to resolve controversies concerning the rates at which extinctions occurred. Some sections seem to record sudden terminations, while others suggest gradual or steplike environmental deterioration. Unfortunately, the manner in which the strata record extinctions and compile stratigraphic ranges makes a strictly literal reading of the fossil record inadvisable. Much progress was made in the study of mass extinctions. The issues are more sharply defined but they are not fully resolved. Scenarios should look back to the phenomena they purport to explain - not just an iridium-rich layer, but the complex fabric of a mass extinction.

  2. Visual extinction: the effect of temporal and spatial bias.

    PubMed

    Rorden, Chris; Jelsone, Laura; Simon-Dack, Stephanie; Baylis, Leslie L; Baylis, Gordon C

    2009-01-01

    Unlike patients with neglect, neurological patients with extinction can detect a single event presented at any location. However, when shown two brief near-simultaneous stimuli they only report the ipsilesional item. The question of what inter-stimulus delay leads to maximal extinction has clear clinical and theoretical implications. di Pellegrino et al. [di Pellegrino, G., Basso, G., & Frassinetti, F. (1997). Spatial extinction on double asynchronous stimulation. Neuropsychologia, 35, 1215-1223] report that extinction is maximal when the two stimuli are presented simultaneously, with less extinction when either item has a slight temporal lead. This finding supports traditional clinical diagnosis (which only presents simultaneous events), and is in accord with theories of extinction that entail individuation of objects (e.g. "token" accounts). In contrast, Cate and Behrmann [Cate, A., & Behrmann, M. (2002). Spatial and temporal influences of extinction. Neuropsychologia, 40, 2206-2225] report that extinction is maximal when the ipsilesional item is presented slightly prior to the contralesional item. This finding appears to support disengage models of attention. Our aim was to reveal whether the difference between these studies reflects different patients, or different methods. Specifically, we note that the stimuli used by Cate and Behrmann were biased both temporally (more ipsilesional first trials) and spatially (more items presented in ipsilesional field). We examined the performance of nine individuals with extinction, and found that maximal extinction was not influenced by temporal biases, but extinction was modulated by the spatial location of stimuli. This finding reconciles previous studies and offers new insight into this syndrome. PMID:18817793

  3. Ultraviolet Extinction Curves For Nearby T Tauri Stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McJunkin, Matthew; France, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    We present empirically-derived fits to the ultraviolet (UV) extinction curves along the line of sight towards young stars with circumstellar disks. Stellar UV radiation plays a strong role in heating the disk gas and driving chemical reactions. Thus, it is important to measure the UV extinction curve in order to reconstruct the intrinsic UV flux irradiating the disk, thereby enabling accurate photochemical modeling of the planet-forming environment. To measure the extinction, we first compare modeled H2 fluorescence spectra to observed H2 lines. Lyman-alpha radiation from the stars pumps electronic transitions of H2 in the disk, and we model the flux that is re-emitted through the subsequent fluorescent cascade. We then extract an initial extinction curve over the 1100-1700 Angstrom wavelength region from the difference between the modeled H2 fluorescence and the HST data. To account for self-absorption in the disk by the optically thick H2, we divide this initial extinction curve by the transmission in each fluorescence line. We then fit the resulting interstellar extinction curve with an interstellar reddening model characterized by an Av and Rv value. The shape of the extinction curve allows us to characterize the dust grain distribution in the intervening material as well as to recover the intrinsic spectral energy distribution of the stars over a wide wavelength range.

  4. Radiocarbon chronology and environment of woolly mammoth ( Mammuthus primigenius Blum.) in northern Asia: results and perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuzmin, Yaroslav V.; Orlova, Lyobov A.

    2004-12-01

    This paper reviews the history of the woolly mammoth ( Mammuthus primigenius Blum.) in Siberia and adjacent northern Asia. The particular emphases are the chronology and environment of mammoth existence and extinction, based on about 530 radiocarbon dates from about 230 localities with mammoth remains and palaeoenvironmental records of the last 50,000 years. Until ca. 12,000 radiocarbon years ago (BP), mammoths inhabited all of northern Asia, from the High Arctic to southern Siberia and northeastern China. Since ca. 12,000 BP, mammoth disappeared from major parts of Siberia and adjacent northern Asia, and survived mainly in the Arctic regions of Siberia, north of 69° northern latitude. However, recently, it was found that some mammoth populations continued to exist in central and southern Western Siberia until ca. 11,100-10,200 BP. 'Normal' size mammoths became extinct in mainland Siberia at the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary, ca. 9700 BP. On Wrangel Island in the High Arctic, small-sized mammoths survived into the Middle-Late Holocene, ca. 7700-3700 BP. Compared with previous studies, it is now possible to reveal the complex nature of the process of final mammoth extinction in Siberia, with some small populations surviving outside of the Arctic until ca. 10,000 BP. The extinction of mammoth was most probably caused by a combination of factors, such as global warming in the Late Glacial (since ca. 15,000 BP) and the disintegration of landscapes suitable for mammoths throughout the Upper Pleistocene, such as light forests with vast open spaces occupied by meadows and forest tundra. The expansion of forest vegetation after the Last Glacial Maximum in Siberia, including its northeastern part, created unsuitable habitats for herbivorous megafauna, especially for mammoths. However, the Holocene environment of Wrangel Island was not of 'glacial' type and this requires further studies. The relationship between mammoths and Upper Palaeolithic humans is also considered. The

  5. Chronic stress disrupts fear extinction and enhances amygdala and hippocampal Fos expression in an animal model of post-traumatic stress disorder.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Ann N; Lorson, Nickolaus G; Sanabria, Federico; Foster Olive, M; Conrad, Cheryl D

    2014-07-01

    Chronic stress may impose a vulnerability to develop maladaptive fear-related behaviors after a traumatic event. Whereas previous work found that chronic stress impairs the acquisition and recall of extinguished fear, it is unknown how chronic stress impacts nonassociative fear, such as in the absence of the conditioned stimulus (CS) or in a novel context. Male rats were subjected to chronic stress (STR; wire mesh restraint 6 h/d/21d) or undisturbed (CON), then tested on fear acquisition (3 tone-footshock pairings), and two extinction sessions (15 tones/session) within the same context. Then each group was tested (6 tones) in the same context (SAME) or a novel context (NOVEL), and brains were processed for functional activation using Fos immunohistochemistry. Compared to CON, STR showed facilitated fear acquisition, resistance to CS extinction on the first extinction day, and robust recovery of fear responses on the second extinction day. STR also showed robust freezing to the context alone during the first extinction day compared to CON. When tested in the same or a novel context, STR exhibited higher freezing to context than did CON, suggesting that STR-induced fear was independent of context. In support of this, STR showed increased Fos-like expression in the basolateral amygdala and CA1 region of the hippocampus in both the SAME and NOVEL contexts. Increased Fos-like expression was also observed in the central amygdala in STR-NOVEL vs. CON-NOVEL. These data demonstrate that chronic stress enhances fear learning and impairs extinction, and affects nonassociative processes as demonstrated by enhanced fear in a novel context. PMID:24508064

  6. Chronic stress disrupts fear extinction and enhances amygdala and hippocampal Fos expression in an animal model of post-traumatic stress disorder

    PubMed Central

    Hoffman, Ann N.; Lorson, Nickolaus G.; Sanabria, Federico; Olive, M. Foster; Conrad, Cheryl D.

    2014-01-01

    Chronic stress may impose a vulnerability to develop maladaptive fear-related behaviors after a traumatic event. Whereas previous work found that chronic stress impairs the acquisition and recall of extinguished fear, it is unknown how chronic stress impacts nonassociative fear, such as in the absence of the conditioned stimulus (CS) or in a novel context. Male rats were subjected to chronic stress (STR; wire mesh restraint 6h/d/21d) or undisturbed (CON), then tested on fear acquisition (3 tone-footshock pairings), and two extinction sessions (15 tones/session) within the same context. Then each group was tested (6 tones) in the same context (SAME) or a novel context (NOVEL), and brains were processed for functional activation using Fos immunohistochemistry. Compared to CON, STR showed facilitated fear acquisition, resistance to CS extinction on the first extinction day, and robust recovery of fear responses on the second extinction day. STR also showed robust freezing to the context alone during the first extinction day compared to CON. When tested in the same or a novel context, STR exhibited higher freezing to context than did CON, suggesting that STR-induced fear was independent of context. In support of this, STR showed increased Fos-like expression in the basolateral amygdala and CA1 region of the hippocampus in both the SAME and NOVEL contexts. Increased Fos-like expression was also observed in the central amygdala in STR-NOVEL vs. CON-NOVEL. These data demonstrate that chronic stress enhances fear learning and impairs extinction, and affects nonassociative processes as demonstrated by enhanced fear in a novel context. PMID:24508064

  7. Correlation between phosphorylation level of a hippocampal 86kDa protein and extinction of a behaviour in a model of Wernicke-Korsakoff syndrome.

    PubMed

    Pires, Rita G W; Pereira, Sílvia R C; Carvalho, Fabiana M; Oliveira-Silva, Ieda F; Ferraz, Vany P; Ribeiro, Angela M

    2007-06-01

    The effects of chronic ethanol and thiamine deficiency, alone or associated, on hippocampal protein phosphorylation profiles ranging in molecular weight from 30 to 250kDa molecular weight, in stimulated (high K(+) concentration) and unstimulated (basal) conditions were investigated. These treatments significantly changed the phosphorylation level of an 86kDa phosphoprotein. Thiamine deficiency, but not chronic ethanol, induced a decrease in a behavioural extinction index, which is significantly correlated to the phosphorylation level of the p86 protein. These data add to and extend previous findings by our laboratory implicating the involvement of hippocampal neurotransmission components in extinction of a behaviour which involves learning of environmental spatial cues. PMID:17395279

  8. How global extinctions impact regional biodiversity in mammals.

    PubMed

    Huang, Shan; Davies, T Jonathan; Gittleman, John L

    2012-04-23

    Phylogenetic diversity (PD) represents the evolutionary history of a species assemblage and is a valuable measure of biodiversity because it captures not only species richness but potentially also genetic and functional diversity. Preserving PD could be critical for maintaining the functional integrity of the world's ecosystems, and species extinction will have a large impact on ecosystems in areas where the ecosystem cost per species extinction is high. Here, we show that impacts from global extinctions are linked to spatial location. Using a phylogeny of all mammals, we compare regional losses of PD against a model of random extinction. At regional scales, losses differ dramatically: several biodiversity hotspots in southern Asia and Amazonia will lose an unexpectedly large proportion of PD. Global analyses may therefore underestimate the impacts of extinction on ecosystem processes and function because they occur at finer spatial scales within the context of natural biogeography. PMID:21957091

  9. Maximal Sensitive Dependence and the Optimal Path to Epidemic Extinction

    PubMed Central

    Forgoston, Eric; Bianco, Simone; Shaw, Leah B.; Schwartz, Ira B.

    2010-01-01

    Extinction of an epidemic or a species is a rare event that occurs due to a large, rare stochastic fluctuation. Although the extinction process is dynamically unstable, it follows an optimal path that maximizes the probability of extinction. We show that the optimal path is also directly related to the finite-time Lyapunov exponents of the underlying dynamical system in that the optimal path displays maximum sensitivity to initial conditions. We consider several stochastic epidemic models, and examine the extinction process in a dynamical systems framework. Using the dynamics of the finite-time Lyapunov exponents as a constructive tool, we demonstrate that the dynamical systems viewpoint of extinction evolves naturally toward the optimal path. PMID:20352495

  10. Ultraviolet photometry from the Orbiting Astronomical Observatory. II Interstellar extinction.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bless, R. C.; Savage, B. D.

    1972-01-01

    Evaluation of interstellar extinction curves over the region from 3600 to 1100 A for 17 stars. The observations were made by the two Wisconsin spectrometers on board the Orbiting Astronomical Observatory 2, with spectral resolutions of 10 and 20 A. The extinction curves generally show a pronounced maximum at 2175 plus or minus 25 A, a broad minimum in the region from 1800 to 1350 A, and finally a rapid rise to the far-ultraviolet. Large extinction variations from star to star are found, especially in the far-ultraviolet; however, with only two possible exceptions in this sample, the wavelength at the maximum of the extinction bump is essentially constant. These data are combined with visual and infrared observations to display the extinction behavior over a range in wavelength of about a factor of 20. The observations appear to require a multicomponent model of the interstellar dust.

  11. Endangered and Extinct Radioactivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leising, M. D.

    1993-07-01

    Gamma ray spectroscopy holds great promise for probing nucleosynthesis in individual nucleosynthesis events, via observations of short-lived radioactivity, and for measuring global galactic nucleosynthesis today with detections of longer-lived radioactivity. Many of the astrophysical issues addressed by these observations are precisely those that must be understood in order to interpret observations of extinct radioactivity in meteorites. It was somewhat surprising that the former case was realized first for a Type II supernova, when both 56Co [1] and 57Co [2] were detected in SN 1987A. These provide unprecedented constraints on models of Type II explosions. Live 26Al in the galaxy might come from Type II supernovae and their progenitors, and if this is eventually shown to be the case, can constrain massive star evolution, supernova nucleosynthesis, the galactic Type II supernova rate, and even models of the chemical evolution of the galaxy [3]. Titanium-44 is produced primarily in the alpha-rich freezeout from nuclear statistical equilibrium, possibly in Type Ia [4] and almost certainly in Type II supernovae [5]. The galactic recurrence time of these events is comparable to the 44Ti lifetime, so we expect to be able to see at most a few otherwise unseen 44Ti remnants at any given time. No such remnants have been detected yet [6]. Very simple arguments lead to the expectation that about 4 x 10^-4 M(sub)solar mass of 44Ca are produced per century. The product of the supernova frequency times the 44Ti yield per event must equal this number. Even assuming that only the latest event would be seen, rates in excess of 2 century^-1 are ruled out at >=99% confidence by the gamma ray limits. Only rates less than 0.3 century^-1 are acceptable at >5% confidence, and this means that the yield per event must be >10^-3 M(sub)solar mass to produce the requisite 44Ca. Rates this low are incompatible with current estimates for Type II supernovae and yields this high are also very

  12. Trophically unique species are vulnerable to cascading extinction.

    PubMed

    Petchey, Owen L; Eklöf, Anna; Borrvall, Charlotte; Ebenman, Bo

    2008-05-01

    Understanding which species might become extinct and the consequences of such loss is critical. One consequence is a cascade of further, secondary extinctions. While a significant amount is known about the types of communities and species that suffer secondary extinctions, little is known about the consequences of secondary extinctions for biodiversity. Here we examine the effect of these secondary extinctions on trophic diversity, the range of trophic roles played by the species in a community. Our analyses of natural and model food webs show that secondary extinctions cause loss of trophic diversity greater than that expected from chance, a result that is robust to variation in food web structure, distribution of interactions strengths, functional response, and adaptive foraging. Greater than expected loss of trophic diversity occurs because more trophically unique species are more vulnerable to secondary extinction. This is not a straightforward consequence of these species having few links with others but is a complex function of how direct and indirect interactions affect species persistence. A positive correlation between a species' extinction probability and the importance of its loss defines high-risk species and should make their conservation a priority. PMID:18419567

  13. AN ANALYSIS OF THE SHAPES OF INTERSTELLAR EXTINCTION CURVES. VI. THE NEAR-IR EXTINCTION LAW

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzpatrick, E. L.; Massa, D. E-mail: massa@derckmassa.net

    2009-07-10

    We combine new observations from the Hubble Space Telescope's Advanced Camera of Survey with existing data to investigate the wavelength dependence of near-IR (NIR) extinction. Previous studies suggest a power law form for NIR extinction, with a 'universal' value of the exponent, although some recent observations indicate that significant sight line-to-sight line variability may exist. We show that a power-law model for the NIR extinction provides an excellent fit to most extinction curves, but that the value of the power, {beta}, varies significantly from sight line to sight line. Therefore, it seems that a 'universal NIR extinction law' is not possible. Instead, we find that as {beta} decreases, R(V) {identical_to} A(V)/E(B - V) tends to increase, suggesting that NIR extinction curves which have been considered 'peculiar' may, in fact, be typical for different R(V) values. We show that the power-law parameters can depend on the wavelength interval used to derive them, with the {beta} increasing as longer wavelengths are included. This result implies that extrapolating power-law fits to determine R(V) is unreliable. To avoid this problem, we adopt a different functional form for NIR extinction. This new form mimics a power law whose exponent increases with wavelength, has only two free parameters, can fit all of our curves over a longer wavelength baseline and to higher precision, and produces R(V) values which are consistent with independent estimates and commonly used methods for estimating R(V). Furthermore, unlike the power-law model, it gives R(V)s that are independent of the wavelength interval used to derive them. It also suggests that the relation R(V) = -1.36 E(K-V)/(E(B-V)) - 0.79 can estimate R(V) to {+-}0.12. Finally, we use model extinction curves to show that our extinction curves are in accord with theoretical expectations, and demonstrate how large samples of observational quantities can provide useful constraints on the grain properties.

  14. The role of the medial prefrontal cortex in trace fear extinction.

    PubMed

    Kwapis, Janine L; Jarome, Timothy J; Helmstetter, Fred J

    2014-01-01

    The extinction of delay fear conditioning relies on a neural circuit that has received much attention and is relatively well defined. Whether this established circuit also supports the extinction of more complex associations, however, is unclear. Trace fear conditioning is a better model of complex relational learning, yet the circuit that supports extinction of this memory has received very little attention. Recent research has indicated that trace fear extinction requires a different neural circuit than delay extinction; trace extinction requires the participation of the retrosplenial cortex, but not the amygdala, as noted in a previous study. Here, we tested the roles of the prelimbic and infralimbic regions of the medial prefrontal cortex in trace and delay fear extinction by blocking NMDA receptors during extinction learning. We found that the prelimbic cortex is necessary for trace, but not for delay fear extinction, whereas the infralimbic cortex is involved in both types of extinction. These results are consistent with the idea that trace fear associations require plasticity in multiple cortical areas for successful extinction. Further, the infralimbic cortex appears to play a role in extinction regardless of whether the animal was initially trained in trace or delay conditioning. Together, our results provide new information about how the neural circuits supporting trace and delay fear extinction differ. PMID:25512576

  15. How do the extinction curves in galaxies evolve?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asano, R.; Takeuchi, T.; Hirashita, H.; Nozawa, T.

    We investigate the evolution of extinction curves in galaxies based on our evolution model of grain size distribution. In this model, we considered various processes: dust formation by SNe II and AGB stars, dust destruction by SN shocks in the interstellar medium (ISM), metal accretion onto the surface of grains, shattering and coagulation. We find that the extinction curve is flat in the earliest stage of galaxy evolution because the grain size distribution is dominated by large (a & 0.1 µ m, where a is the grain radius) grains produced by stars. As the galaxy is enriched with dust, shattering becomes effective to produce a large abundance of small grains (a . 0.01 µ m). Then, the total surface area of grains per grain mass becomes large, and grain growth becomes effective at small grain radii, forming a bump at a ˜ 10-3 -10-2 µ m on the grain size distribution. Consequently, the extinction curve at ultraviolet (UV) wavelengths becomes steep, and a bump at 1/λ ˜ 4.5 µ m-1 (λ : wavelength) on the extinction curve becomes prominent. The galactic age when the extinction curve has the bump is roughly estimated as t ˜ (τSF /Gyr)1/2 Gyr, where τSF is the star formation timescale. Once coagulation becomes effective, the extinction curves become flatter, but the UV extinction remains overproduced when compared with the Milky Way extinction curve. This discrepancy can be resolved by introducing a stronger contribution of coagulation. Thus, an interplay between shattering and coagulation could be important to reproduce the Milky Way extinction curve. We conclude that the extinction curves of galaxies change drastically through the galaxy lifetime because the main dust processes that contribute to the grain size distribution change.

  16. Pleistocene extinctions: haunting the survivors.

    PubMed

    Hofreiter, Michael

    2007-08-01

    For many years, the megafaunal extinctions at the end of the Pleistocene have been assumed to have affected only those species that became extinct. However, recent analyses show that the surviving species may also have experienced losses in terms of genetic and ecological diversity. PMID:17686436

  17. Ecology: Dynamics of Indirect Extinction.

    PubMed

    Montoya, Jose M

    2015-12-01

    The experimental identification of the mechanism by which extinctions of predators trigger further predator extinctions emphasizes the role of indirect effects between species in disturbed ecosystems. It also has deep consequences for the hidden magnitude of the current biodiversity crisis. PMID:26654371

  18. Acoustic integrated extinction

    PubMed Central

    Norris, Andrew N.

    2015-01-01

    The integrated extinction (IE) is defined as the integral of the scattering cross section as a function of wavelength. Sohl et al. (2007 J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 122, 3206–3210. (doi:10.1121/1.2801546)) derived an IE expression for acoustic scattering that is causal, i.e. the scattered wavefront in the forward direction arrives later than the incident plane wave in the background medium. The IE formula was based on electromagnetic results, for which scattering is causal by default. Here, we derive a formula for the acoustic IE that is valid for causal and non-causal scattering. The general result is expressed as an integral of the time-dependent forward scattering function. The IE reduces to a finite integral for scatterers with zero long-wavelength monopole and dipole amplitudes. Implications for acoustic cloaking are discussed and a new metric is proposed for broadband acoustic transparency. PMID:27547100

  19. Measuring Extinction with ALE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zimmer, Peter C.; McGraw, J. T.; Gimmestad, G. G.; Roberts, D.; Stewart, J.; Smith, J.; Fitch, J.

    2007-12-01

    ALE (Astronomical LIDAR for Extinction) is deployed at the University of New Mexico's (UNM) Campus Observatory in Albuquerque, NM. It has begun a year-long testing phase prior deployment at McDonald Observatory in support of the CCD/Transit Instrument II (CTI-II). ALE is designed to produce a high-precision measurement of atmospheric absorption and scattering above the observatory site every ten minutes of every moderately clear night. LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) is the VIS/UV/IR analog of radar, using a laser, telescope and time-gated photodetector instead of a radio transmitter, dish and receiver. In the case of ALE -- an elastic backscatter LIDAR -- 20ns-long, eye-safe laser pulses are launched 2500 times per second from a 0.32m transmitting telescope co-mounted with a 50mm short-range receiver on an alt-az mounted 0.67m long-range receiver. Photons from the laser pulse are scattered and absorbed as the pulse propagates through the atmosphere, a portion of which are scattered into the field of view of the short- and long-range receiver telescopes and detected by a photomultiplier. The properties of a given volume of atmosphere along the LIDAR path are inferred from both the altitude-resolved backscatter signal as well as the attenuation of backscatter signal from altitudes above it. We present ALE profiles from the commissioning phase and demonstrate some of the astronomically interesting atmospheric information that can be gleaned from these data, including, but not limited to, total line-of-sight extinction. This project is funded by NSF Grant 0421087.

  20. A refined chronology of prehistoric Madagascar and the demise of the megafauna

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crowley, Brooke E.

    2010-09-01

    The vertebrate community of Madagascar is one of the most unique and diverse on Earth, yet faunal diversity today is just a fraction of that present in the Pleistocene and Early Holocene. An understanding of the chronology of extinction relative to climate change and anthropogenic factors is essential to test hypotheses for extinction. Here, I combine over 200 new radiocarbon dates with published 14C dates from extinct and extant subfossil vertebrates. These new data provide evidence for the prolonged existence of both extant and extinct endemic terrestrial vertebrate species well before human arrival, with habitation of some localities extending back before the Last Glacial Maximum. I analyze the data for patterns among body sizes and ecoregions in relation to four major historical events: human arrival (ca 2500 years ago), establishment of human settlements (ca 1500 years ago), Late Holocene aridification (peaking ca 1000 years ago), and European arrival (ca 500 years ago). Patterns in endemic species abundance after human arrival differ depending on body size and geographic location. Within the first 500 years after human arrival, there were population declines in (1) very large species (>150 kg) and large species (10-150 kg) in the Dry Deciduous Forest, (2) large species in the Central Highlands, and (3) very large species in the Spiny Thicket. This first pulse of declines was likely triggered by human predation. Large species continued to be well represented in the Spiny Thicket and Succulent Woodland until ca 1000 years ago, when their populations plummeted. This second pulse of declines may have been solely triggered by continued human predation, or it may have resulted from a combination of increasing Late Holocene aridity and human impacts in the form of hunting and habitat modification. The abundance of endemic animals weighing <10 kg increased dramatically in the aftermath of the decline in large-bodied species.

  1. Extinction of Harrington's Mountain Goat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mead, Jim I.; Martin, Paul S.; Euler, Robert C.; Long, Austin; Jull, A. J. T.; Toolin, Laurence J.; Donahue, Douglas J.; Linick, T. W.

    1986-02-01

    Keratinous horn sheaths of the extinct Harrington's mountain goat, Oreamnos harringtoni, were recovered at or near the surface of dry caves of the Grand Canyon, Arizona. Twenty-three separate specimens from two caves were dated nondestructively by the tandem accelerator mass spectrometer (TAMS). Both the TAMS and the conventional dates indicate that Harrington's mountain goat occupied the Grand Canyon for at least 19,000 years prior to becoming extinct by 11,160 ± 125 radiocarbon years before present. The youngest average radiocarbon dates on Shasta ground sloths, Nothrotheriops shastensis, from the region are not significantly younger than those on extinct mountain goats. Rather than sequential extinction with Harrington's mountain goat disappearing from the Grand Canyon before the ground sloths, as one might predict in view of evidence of climatic warming at the time, the losses were concurrent. Both extinctions coincide with the regional arrival of Clovis hunters.

  2. Extinction of Harrington's mountain goat

    SciTech Connect

    Mead, J.I.; Martin, P.S.; Euler, R.C.; Long, A.; Jull, A.J.T.; Toolin, L.J.; Donahue, D.J.; Linick, T.W.

    1986-02-01

    Keratinous horn sheaths of the extinct Harrington's mountain goat, Oreamnos harringtoni, were recovered at or near the surface of dry caves of the Grand Canyon, Arizona. Twenty-three separate specimens from two caves were dated nondestructively by the tandem accelerator mass spectrometer (TAMS). Both the TAMS and the conventional dates indicate that Harrington's mountain goat occupied the Grand Canyon for at least 19,000 years prior to becoming extinct by 11,160 +/- 125 radiocarbon years before present. The youngest average radiocarbon dates on Shasta ground sloths, Nothrotheriops shastensis, from the region are not significantly younger than those on extinct mountain goats. Rather than sequential extinction with Harrington's mountain goat disappearing from the Grand Canyon before the ground sloths, as one might predict in view of evidence of climatic warming at the time, the losses were concurrent. Both extinctions coincide with the regional arrival of Clovis hunters.

  3. Behavioral tagging of extinction learning.

    PubMed

    de Carvalho Myskiw, Jociane; Benetti, Fernando; Izquierdo, Iván

    2013-01-15

    Extinction of contextual fear in rats is enhanced by exposure to a novel environment at 1-2 h before or 1 h after extinction training. This effect is antagonized by administration of protein synthesis inhibitors anisomycin and rapamycin into the hippocampus, but not into the amygdala, immediately after either novelty or extinction training, as well as by the gene expression blocker 5,6-dichloro-1-beta-D-ribofuranosylbenzimidazole administered after novelty training, but not after extinction training. Thus, this effect can be attributed to a mechanism similar to synaptic tagging, through which long-term potentiation can be enhanced by other long-term potentiations or by exposure to a novel environment in a protein synthesis-dependent fashion. Extinction learning produces a tag at the appropriate synapses, whereas novelty learning causes the synthesis of plasticity-related proteins that are captured by the tag, strengthening the synapses that generated this tag. PMID:23277583

  4. Interstellar extinction in the ultraviolet

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bless, R. C.; Savage, B. D.

    1972-01-01

    Interstellar extinction curves over the region 3600-1100 A for 17 stars are presented. The observations were made by the two Wisconsin spectrometers onboard the OAO-2 with spectral resolutions of 10 A and 20 A. The extinction curves generally show a pronounced maximum at 2175 plus or minus 25 A, a broad minimum in the region 1800-1350 A, and finally a rapid rise to the far ultraviolet. Large extinction variations from star to star are found, especially in the far ultraviolet; however, with only two possible exceptions in this sample, the wavelength at the maximum of the extinction bump is essentially constant. These data are combined with visual and infrared observations to display the extinction behavior over a range in wavelength of about a factor of 20.

  5. Self-extinction through optimizing selection

    PubMed Central

    Parvinen, Kalle; Dieckmann, Ulf

    2013-01-01

    Evolutionary suicide is a process in which selection drives a viable population to extinction. So far, such selection-driven self-extinction has been demonstrated in models with frequency-dependent selection. This is not surprising, since frequency-dependent selection can disconnect individual-level and population-level interests through environmental feedback. Hence it can lead to situations akin to the tragedy of the commons, with adaptations that serve the selfish interests of individuals ultimately ruining a population. For frequency-dependent selection to play such a role, it must not be optimizing. Together, all published studies of evolutionary suicide have created the impression that evolutionary suicide is not possible with optimizing selection. Here we disprove this misconception by presenting and analyzing an example in which optimizing selection causes self-extinction. We then take this line of argument one step further by showing, in a further example, that selection-driven self-extinction can occur even under frequency-independent selection. PMID:23583808

  6. Does chronological age reduce working ability?

    PubMed

    Duraković, Zijad; Misigoj-Duraković, Marjeta

    2006-03-01

    Definitions of so-called older age often are based on a chronological age of 65 years and over, although by some authors aging is the process that starts after the 30th year of life. At the beginning occur changes in the organ functions, followed by anatomical changes as well. Some organs age faster, some slower. For example, kidneys decrease for one third, lungs do not change, liver shrinks a little, prostate increases twice. In some cross-sectional studies, muscle mass in men aged 65 is on average 12 kg less than in the so-called middle age, and in women it is approximately 5 kg less. In the heart the amount of connective tissue increases, lipofuscin is deposited in cardiac muscle, the strength of which is decreasing. In the respiratory tract the number of pathways cilia decreases, along with the alveolar surface, muscles involved in breathing change, lung elasticity is also diminished. But, in regard with the previous body capacity, "physiological aging" can be divided into three types of elderly: the "older" elderly have the highest functional capacity of 2-3 MET (MET--metabolic unit, i.e. the oxygen consumption of 3.5 ml/kg body mass in a minute), the "younger" elderly are the persons of older age having maximal functional capacity of 5-7 MET, while the "sport" elderly have the functional capacity of 9-10 MET, disregarding chronological age. The brain weight diminishes for approximately 7% compared to younger age. In temporal gyrus and area striata even 20-40% of cells are being lost, vacuolar and neuroaxonal degeneration occurs, lipofuscin is being accumulated. The brain blood flow, which is in normal conditions 50-60 ml/min/100 g of tissue, with the increase of biological age decreases to about 40 ml/min/100 g of tissue. However, this usually is not the consequence of biological age but of disease. A chronological age of 65 for the beginning of "elder hood" is a sociopolitical construct developed by social security systems and government organizations to

  7. The end-Permian mass extinction: A complex, multicausal extinction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Erwin, D. H.

    1994-01-01

    The end-Permian mass extinction was the most extensive in the history of life and remains one of the most complex. Understanding its causes is particularly important because it anchors the putative 26-m.y. pattern of periodic extinction. However, there is no good evidence for an impact and this extinction appears to be more complex than others, involving at least three phases. The first began with the onset of a marine regression during the Late Permian and resulting elimination of most marine basins, reduction in habitat area, and increased climatic instability; the first pulse of tetrapod extinctions occurred in South Africa at this time. The second phase involved increased regression in many areas (although apparently not in South China) and heightened climatic instability and environmental degradation. Release of gas hydrates, oxidation of marine carbon, and the eruption of the Siberian flood basalts occurred during this phase. The final phase of the extinction episode began with the earliest Triassic marine regression and destruction of nearshore continental habitats. Some evidence suggests oceanic anoxia may have developed during the final phase of the extinction, although it appears to have been insufficient to the sole cause of the extinction.

  8. Observational evidence of dust evolution in galactic extinction curves

    SciTech Connect

    Cecchi-Pestellini, Cesare; Casu, Silvia; Mulas, Giacomo; Zonca, Alberto E-mail: silvia@oa-cagliari.inaf.it E-mail: azonca@oa-cagliari.inaf.it

    2014-04-10

    Although structural and optical properties of hydrogenated amorphous carbons are known to respond to varying physical conditions, most conventional extinction models are basically curve fits with modest predictive power. We compare an evolutionary model of the physical properties of carbonaceous grain mantles with their determination by homogeneously fitting observationally derived Galactic extinction curves with the same physically well-defined dust model. We find that a large sample of observed Galactic extinction curves are compatible with the evolutionary scenario underlying such a model, requiring physical conditions fully consistent with standard density, temperature, radiation field intensity, and average age of diffuse interstellar clouds. Hence, through the study of interstellar extinction we may, in principle, understand the evolutionary history of the diffuse interstellar clouds.

  9. Chronological and morphological study of heart development in the rat.

    PubMed

    Marcela, Salazar García; Cristina, Revilla Monsalve María; Angel, Palomino Garibay Miguel; Manuel, Arteaga Martínez; Sofía, Díaz-Cintra; Patricia, De La Rosa-Santander; Bladimir, Roque-Ramírez; Concepción, Sánchez Gómez

    2012-08-01

    Adult and embryonic laboratory rats have been used as a mammalian model organism in biomedical research, descriptive and experimental cardiac embryology, and experimental teratology. There have been, however, considerable variations and discrepancies concerning the developmental staging of the rat embryo in the reported literature, which have resulted in several controversies and inconsistencies. Therefore, we carried out a careful anatomical and histological study of rat cardiac morphogenesis from the premorphogenetic period to the mature heart in a newborn pup. A correlation between the chronology and morphological features of the heart and embryo or newborn was made. We provide a simple and comprehensive guide relating the developmental timing and fate of the embryonic components of the heart and their morphological changes in the rat based on in vivo labeling studies in the chick. We also compare the timing of heart development in rats, humans, and mice. PMID:22715162

  10. Neurofibromatosis: chronological history and current issues*

    PubMed Central

    Antônio, João Roberto; Goloni-Bertollo, Eny Maria; Trídico, Lívia Arroyo

    2013-01-01

    Neurofibromatosis, which was first described in 1882 by Von Recklinghausen, is a genetic disease characterized by a neuroectodermal abnormality and by clinical manifestations of systemic and progressive involvement which mainly affect the skin, nervous system, bones, eyes and possibly other organs. The disease may manifest in several ways and it can vary from individual to individual. Given the wealth of information about neurofibromatosis, we attempted to present this information in different ways. In the first part of this work, we present a chronological history, which describes the evolution of the disease since the early publications about the disorder until the conclusion of this work, focusing on relevant aspects which can be used by those wishing to investigate this disease. In the second part, we present an update on the various aspects that constitute this disease. PMID:23793209

  11. High frequency of functional extinctions in ecological networks.

    PubMed

    Säterberg, Torbjörn; Sellman, Stefan; Ebenman, Bo

    2013-07-25

    Intensified exploitation of natural populations and habitats has led to increased mortality rates and decreased abundances of many species. There is a growing concern that this might cause critical abundance thresholds of species to be crossed, with extinction cascades and state shifts in ecosystems as a consequence. When increased mortality rate and decreased abundance of a given species lead to extinction of other species, this species can be characterized as functionally extinct even though it still exists. Although such functional extinctions have been observed in some ecosystems, their frequency is largely unknown. Here we use a new modelling approach to explore the frequency and pattern of functional extinctions in ecological networks. Specifically, we analytically derive critical abundance thresholds of species by increasing their mortality rates until an extinction occurs in the network. Applying this approach on natural and theoretical food webs, we show that the species most likely to go extinct first is not the one whose mortality rate is increased but instead another species. Indeed, up to 80% of all first extinctions are of another species, suggesting that a species' ecological functionality is often lost before its own existence is threatened. Furthermore, we find that large-bodied species at the top of the food chains can only be exposed to small increases in mortality rate and small decreases in abundance before going functionally extinct compared to small-bodied species lower in the food chains. These results illustrate the potential importance of functional extinctions in ecological networks and lend strong support to arguments advocating a more community-oriented approach in conservation biology, with target levels for populations based on ecological functionality rather than on mere persistence. PMID:23831648

  12. U. S. Military Documentary Films: A Chronological Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Avery, Robert K.; Larson, Timothy L.

    After presenting a chronological account of United States military documentary films from World War I through the Vietnam War, this paper reports on a study that compared the effectiveness of films prepared during World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. The first section, the chronological account, touches on such subjects as the…

  13. Chronology of KSC and KSC-related events for 1985

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nail, Ken, Jr.; Liston, Elaine

    1986-01-01

    A chronology of developments and events at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in 1985 documents the KSC role in NASA's progress. The chronology serves as a reference source for historians and other researchers. Arrangement is by day and month. Individual articles are attributed to published sources.

  14. Marshall Space Flight Center 1990 annual chronology of events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, Michael

    1991-01-01

    A chronological listing is provided of the major events for the Marshall Space Flight Center for the calendar year 1990. The MSFC Historian, Management Operations Office, compiled the chronology from various sources and from supplemental information provided by the major MSFC organizations.

  15. Time and Chronology: Conjoined Twins or Distant Cousins?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blow, Frances; Lee, Peter; Shemilt, Denis

    2012-01-01

    Weaknesses in pupils' grasp of historical chronology are a commonplace in popular discussion of the state of history education. However, as Blow, Lee and Shemilt argue, although undoubtedly necessary and fundamental, mastery of chronological conventions is not sufficient: the difficulties that pupils experience when learning history are…

  16. A Musical Chronology and the Emerging Life Song

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffey, Thelma

    2005-01-01

    This article describes an intervention used by the author in her clinical practice. Some clients have a need to resolve relationship issues. "A Musical Chronology" has been a helpful resource for this work. Through the chronology, clients examine their life/love stories, share these stories with their therapist, and work through grief or other…

  17. Marshall Space Flight Center 1989 annual chronology of events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, Michael

    1990-01-01

    A chronological listing of the major events for the Marshall Space Flight Center for the calendar year 1989 is provided. The MSFC Historian, Management Operations Office, compiled the chronology from various sources and from supplemental information provided by the major MSFC organizations.

  18. Jewish Holocaust Histories and the Work of Chronological Narratives

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Silverstein, Jordana

    2012-01-01

    This article examines the ways that, in Holocaust education in Jewish schools in Melbourne and New York at the beginning of the 21st century, knowledge of the Holocaust is transferred to students in chronological form. It begins by asking: What work do chronological narratives do within the Holocaust historical narratives offered within Jewish…

  19. Community stability and selective extinction during the Permian-Triassic mass extinction.

    PubMed

    Roopnarine, Peter D; Angielczyk, Kenneth D

    2015-10-01

    The fossil record contains exemplars of extreme biodiversity crises. Here, we examined the stability of terrestrial paleocommunities from South Africa during Earth's most severe mass extinction, the Permian-Triassic. We show that stability depended critically on functional diversity and patterns of guild interaction, regardless of species richness. Paleocommunities exhibited less transient instability—relative to model communities with alternative community organization—and significantly greater probabilities of being locally stable during the mass extinction. Functional patterns that have evolved during an ecosystem's history support significantly more stable communities than hypothetical alternatives. PMID:26430120

  20. Community stability and selective extinction during the Permian-Triassic mass extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roopnarine, Peter D.; Angielczyk, Kenneth D.

    2015-10-01

    The fossil record contains exemplars of extreme biodiversity crises. Here, we examined the stability of terrestrial paleocommunities from South Africa during Earth's most severe mass extinction, the Permian-Triassic. We show that stability depended critically on functional diversity and patterns of guild interaction, regardless of species richness. Paleocommunities exhibited less transient instability—relative to model communities with alternative community organization—and significantly greater probabilities of being locally stable during the mass extinction. Functional patterns that have evolved during an ecosystem's history support significantly more stable communities than hypothetical alternatives.

  1. Local extinction synchronizes population dynamics in spatial networks.

    PubMed

    Matter, Stephen F; Roland, Jens

    2010-03-01

    Spatial population theory predicts that synchrony in the dynamics of local populations should decrease as dispersal among populations decreases. Thus, it would be expected that the extinction of local populations and the attendant loss of immigrants to surrounding populations would reduce synchrony. We tested this hypothesis through a large-scale experiment, simulation of the experimental system and general models. Experimental removal of two adjacent subpopulations of the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly, Parnassius smintheus within a network consisting of 15 other local populations resulted in a decrease in immigration to surrounding populations that was proportional to their connectivity to the removal populations. These populations also showed a significant increase in synchrony during population removal. The spatial extent of the synchrony showed good agreement with the predicted loss of immigrants owing to the removals. Simulation of the Parnassius system showed a similar short-term result and also indicated that permanent loss of populations produces structural changes increasing synchrony. General models indicate that an increase in synchrony following extinction occurs when populations undergoing extinction have different carrying capacities than surrounding populations. The result is not owing to biased migration per se, but rather is because of the number of immigrants relative to the carrying capacity. Synchrony following extinction should be most common for patchy populations, but can occur in any situation where carrying capacities differ. Overall, our results indicate that local extinction can create a positive feedback for extinction risk, increasing the probability of extinction for population networks by synchronizing their dynamics. PMID:19889700

  2. Large Diameter, Radiative Extinction Experiments with Decane Droplets in Microgravity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Easton, John; Tien, James; Dietrich, Daniel

    1999-01-01

    The extinction of a diffusion flame is of fundamental interest in combustion science. Linan, Law, and Chung and Law analytically and experimentally determined an extinction boundary in terms of droplet diameter and pressure for a single droplet due to Damkohler, or blowoff, extinction. More recently, other researchers demonstrated extinction due to finite rate kinetics in reduced gravity for free droplets of heptane. Chao modeled the effect of radiative heat loss on a quasi-steady spherically symmetric single droplet burning in the absence of buoyancy. They determined that for increasing droplet diameter, a second limit can be reached such that combustion is no longer possible. This second, larger droplet diameter limit arises due to radiative heat loss, which increases with increasing droplet and flame diameter. This increase in radiative heat loss arises due to an increase in the surface area of the flame. Recently, Marchese modeled fuel droplets with detailed chemistry and radiative effects, and compared the results to other work. The modeling also showed the importance of radiative loss and radiative extinction Experiments examined the behavior of a large droplet of decane burning in reduced gravity onboard the NASA Lewis DC-9 aircraft, but did not show a radiative extinction boundary due to g-jitter (Variations in gravitational level and direction) effects. Dietrich conducted experiments in the reduced gravity environment of the Space Shuttle. This work showed that the extinction diameter of methanol droplets increased when the initial diameter of the droplets was large (in this case, approximately 5 mm). Theoretical results agreed with these experimental results only when the theory included radiative effects . Radiative extinction was experimentally verified by Nayagam in a later Shuttle mission. The following work focuses on the combustion and extinction of a single fuel droplet. The goal is to experimentally determine a large droplet diameter limit that

  3. Mass Extinctions in Earth's History

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P. D.

    2002-12-01

    Mass extinctions are short intervals of elevated species death. Possible causes of Earth's mass extinctions are both external (astronomical) and internal (tectonic and biotic changes from planetary mechanisms). Paleontologists have identified five "major" mass extinctions (>50 die-off in less than a million years) and more than 20 other minor events over the past 550 million years. Earlier major extinction events undoubtedly also occurred, but we have no fossil record; these were probably associated with, for example, the early heavy bombardment that cleared out the solar system, the advent of oxygen in the atmosphere, and various "snowball Earth" events. Mass extinctions are viewed as both destructive (species death ) and constructive, in that they allow evolutionary innovation in the wake of species disappearances. From an astrobiological perspective, mass extinctions must be considered as able both to reduce biodiversity and even potentially end life on any planet. Of the five major mass extinctions identified on Earth, only one (the Cretaceous/Tertiary event 65 million years ago that famously killed off the dinosaurs ) is unambiguously related to the impact of an asteroid or comet ( 10-km diameter). The Permian/Triassic (250 Myr ago) and Triassic/Jurassic (202 Myr ago) events are now the center of debate between those favoring impact and those suggesting large volume flooding by basaltic lavas. The final two events, Ordovician (440 Myr ago) and Devonian (370 Myr ago) have no accepted causal mechanisms.

  4. The learning of fear extinction.

    PubMed

    Furini, Cristiane; Myskiw, Jociane; Izquierdo, Ivan

    2014-11-01

    Recent work on the extinction of fear-motivated learning places emphasis on its putative circuitry and on its modulation. Extinction is the learned inhibition of retrieval of previously acquired responses. Fear extinction is used as a major component of exposure therapy in the treatment of fear memories such as those of the posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). It is initiated and maintained by interactions between the hippocampus, basolateral amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex, which involve feedback regulation of the latter by the other two areas. Fear extinction depends on NMDA receptor activation. It is positively modulated by d-serine acting on the glycine site of NMDA receptors and blocked by AP5 (2-amino-5-phosphono propionate) in the three structures. In addition, histamine acting on H2 receptors and endocannabinoids acting on CB1 receptors in the three brain areas mentioned, and muscarinic cholinergic fibers from the medial septum to hippocampal CA1 positively modulate fear extinction. Importantly, fear extinction can be made state-dependent on circulating epinephrine, which may play a role in situations of stress. Exposure to a novel experience can strongly enhance the consolidation of fear extinction through a synaptic tagging and capture mechanism; this may be useful in the therapy of states caused by fear memory like PTSD. PMID:25452113

  5. Extinction in young massive clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Marchi, Guido; Panagia, Nino

    2016-01-01

    Up to ages of ~100 Myr, massive clusters are still swamped in large amounts of gas and dust, causing considerable and uneven levels of extinction. At the same time, large grains (ices?) produced by type II supernovae profoundly alter the interstellar medium (ISM), thus resulting in extinction properties very different from those of the diffuse ISM. To obtain physically meaningful parameters of stars (luminosities, effective temperatures, masses, ages, etc.) we must understand and measure the local extinction law. We have developed a powerful method to unambiguously determine the extinction law everywhere across a cluster field, using multi-band photometry of red giant stars belonging to the red clump (RC) and are applying it to young massive clusters in the Local Group. In the Large Magellanic Cloud, with about 20 RC stars per arcmin2, for each field we can easily derive an accurate extinction curve over the entire wavelength range of the photometry. As an example, we present the extinction law of the Tarantula nebula (30 Dor) based on thousands of stars observed as part of the Hubble Tarantula Treasury Project. We discuss how the incautious adoption of the Milky Way extinction law in the analysis of massive star forming regions may lead to serious underestimates of the fluxes and of the star formation rates by factors of 2 or more.

  6. [Metric and angular variables of the mandibular ramus on panoramic radiographs, as indicators for chronologic age].

    PubMed

    Espina-Fereira, Angela; Ortega, Ana Isabel; Barrios, Fernando Alonso; Maldonado, Yadelsy Jackelina; Fereira, José Luis

    2007-12-01

    This paper had as goals to identify the presence of age indicators in the mandibular ramus and to study their applicability in estimating the chronological age of children between the ages of 6 and 12 years. For this, a sample of 128 individuals (70 males and 58 females) was selected, all without chronic or acute sicknesses. An evaluation was made of the metric and angular variables of the mandibular ramus on panoramic radiographs of the oral cavity. The Greulich-Pyle method was applied to estimate the skeletal age, and the Demirjian et al. method was applied to estimate the dental age. A positive correlation, statistically significant, could be observed between the metric variables studied and the chronological age; nevertheless, the angular variables did not show correlation with the chronological age. Regression models were built using metric variables of the mandibular ramus in order to estimate the age, which made a significant contribution to the calculation of the age. A consistent subestimation of the skeletal age and an overestimation of the dental age were found in both sexes. It was evident that a combination of the dental age, the skeletal age and the metric variables obtained in the mandibular ramus, increases the precision for calculating the chronological age, when compared to separate-made estimations of the dental and skeletal age. The proposed regression models can be used for estimating the age of cadavers in advanced states of decomposition and in living individuals without valid identification documents. PMID:18271388

  7. Extinction risk depends strongly on factors contributing to stochasticity.

    PubMed

    Melbourne, Brett A; Hastings, Alan

    2008-07-01

    Extinction risk in natural populations depends on stochastic factors that affect individuals, and is estimated by incorporating such factors into stochastic models. Stochasticity can be divided into four categories, which include the probabilistic nature of birth and death at the level of individuals (demographic stochasticity), variation in population-level birth and death rates among times or locations (environmental stochasticity), the sex of individuals and variation in vital rates among individuals within a population (demographic heterogeneity). Mechanistic stochastic models that include all of these factors have not previously been developed to examine their combined effects on extinction risk. Here we derive a family of stochastic Ricker models using different combinations of all these stochastic factors, and show that extinction risk depends strongly on the combination of factors that contribute to stochasticity. Furthermore, we show that only with the full stochastic model can the relative importance of environmental and demographic variability, and therefore extinction risk, be correctly determined. Using the full model, we find that demographic sources of stochasticity are the prominent cause of variability in a laboratory population of Tribolium castaneum (red flour beetle), whereas using only the standard simpler models would lead to the erroneous conclusion that environmental variability dominates. Our results demonstrate that current estimates of extinction risk for natural populations could be greatly underestimated because variability has been mistakenly attributed to the environment rather than the demographic factors described here that entail much higher extinction risk for the same variability level. PMID:18596809

  8. Three-dimensional extinction mapping using Gaussian random fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sale, S. E.; Magorrian, J.

    2014-11-01

    We present a scheme for using stellar catalogues to map the three-dimensional distributions of extinction and dust within our Galaxy. Extinction is modelled as a Gaussian random field, whose covariance function is set by a simple physical model of the interstellar medium that assumes a Kolmogorov-like power spectrum of turbulent fluctuations. As extinction is modelled as a random field, the spatial resolution of the resulting maps is set naturally by the data available; there is no need to impose any spatial binning. We verify the validity of our scheme by testing it on simulated extinction fields and show that its precision is significantly improved over previous dust-mapping efforts. The approach we describe here can make use of any photometric, spectroscopic or astrometric data; it is not limited to any particular survey. Consequently, it can be applied to a wide range of data from both existing and future surveys.

  9. Quality assessment of chronologies in Latin American pollen records: a contribution to centennial to millennial scale studies of environmental change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flantua, S. G. A.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Blaauw, M.

    2015-04-01

    The newly updated inventory of the Latin American Pollen Database (LAPD) offers an important overview of data available for multi-proxy and multi-site purposes. However, heterogeneous paleoecological databases are not suitable to be integrated without an uncertainty assessment of existing chronologies. Therefore, we collected all chronological control points and age model metadata from the LAPD literature to create a complementary chronological database of 5116 dates from 1097 pollen records. We start with an overview on chronological dating and reporting in Central and South America. Specific problems and recommendations for chronology reporting are discussed. Subsequently, we implement a temporal quality assessment of pollen records from northwest South-America to support research on climate forcers and responses at a centennial-millennial time-scale. New chronologies are generated for 233 pollen records based on updated calibration curves. Different time windows are discussed on sample resolution and temporal uncertainty. Approximately one in four pollen diagrams depicts < 500 years resolution data at the Younger Dryas/Holocene transition. Overall, our analyses suggest that the temporal resolution of multi-site syntheses of late Pleistocene fossil pollen records in the northwest South-America is ca. 240 years, a resolution which allows analysis of ecological responses to centennial-millennial-scale climate change during the last deglaciation.

  10. Causes and timing of future biosphere extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franck, S.; Bounama, C.; von Bloh, W.

    2005-11-01

    We present a minimal model for the global carbon cycle of the Earth containing the reservoirs mantle, ocean floor, continental crust, biosphere, and the kerogen, as well as the aggregated reservoir ocean and atmosphere. The model is specified by introducing three different types of biosphere: procaryotes, eucaryotes, and complex multicellular life. We find that from the Archaean to the future a procaryotic biosphere always exists. 2 Gyr ago eucaryotic life first appears. The emergence of complex multicellular life is connected with an explosive increase in biomass and a strong decrease in Cambrian global surface temperature at about 0.54 Gyr ago. In the long-term future the three types of biosphere will die out in reverse sequence of their appearance. We show that there is no evidence for an implosion-like extinction in contrast to the Cambrian explosion. The ultimate life span of the biosphere is defined by the extinction of procaryotes in about 1.6 Gyr.

  11. New theories about ancient extinctions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, H.

    1986-01-01

    But all this may be changing. Mass extinctions have been very much in the news in the last few years, triggered in large part by the proposal that the extinction of the dinosaurs and marine animals was caused by a catastrophic collision between the Earth and an extra-terrestrial body (bolide). Recently an equally contentious suggestion has been made that mass extinctions have swept the Earth every 26 to 31 million years for at least the last 250 million years-caused by encounters with some kind of extra-terrestrial object such as one of the asteroids or the comets. 

  12. The Italians in America, 1492-1972: A Chronology and Fact Book. Ethnic Chronology Series, Number 4.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    LoGatto, Anthony F., Comp.

    Contents of this chronology and fact book include the following: (i) Editor's foreword; (ii) Chronology; (iii) Twenty-one documents, ranging from "Charter granting Christopher Columbus the Prerogatives and Privileges of his Voyage--April 30, 1492," to "On the Care of Migrants," issued by Pope Paul VI on August 22, 1969; Nine appendices, including:…

  13. Reconstructing past species assemblages reveals the changing patterns and drivers of extinction through time

    PubMed Central

    Bromham, Lindell; Lanfear, Robert; Cassey, Phillip; Gibb, Gillian; Cardillo, Marcel

    2012-01-01

    Predicting future species extinctions from patterns of past extinctions or current threat status relies on the assumption that the taxonomic and biological selectivity of extinction is consistent through time. If the driving forces of extinction change through time, this assumption may be unrealistic. Testing the consistency of extinction patterns between the past and the present has been difficult, because the phylogenetically explicit methods used to model present-day extinction risk typically cannot be applied to the data from the fossil record. However, the detailed historical and fossil records of the New Zealand avifauna provide a unique opportunity to reconstruct a complete, large faunal assemblage for different periods in the past. Using the first complete phylogeny of all known native New Zealand bird species, both extant and extinct, we show how the taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity of extinction, and biological correlates of extinction, change from the pre-human period through Polynesian and European occupation, to the present. These changes can be explained both by changes in primary threatening processes, and by the operation of extinction filter effects. The variable patterns of extinction through time may confound attempts to identify risk factors that apply across time periods, and to infer future species declines from past extinction patterns and current threat status. PMID:22859591

  14. Reconstructing past species assemblages reveals the changing patterns and drivers of extinction through time.

    PubMed

    Bromham, Lindell; Lanfear, Robert; Cassey, Phillip; Gibb, Gillian; Cardillo, Marcel

    2012-10-01

    Predicting future species extinctions from patterns of past extinctions or current threat status relies on the assumption that the taxonomic and biological selectivity of extinction is consistent through time. If the driving forces of extinction change through time, this assumption may be unrealistic. Testing the consistency of extinction patterns between the past and the present has been difficult, because the phylogenetically explicit methods used to model present-day extinction risk typically cannot be applied to the data from the fossil record. However, the detailed historical and fossil records of the New Zealand avifauna provide a unique opportunity to reconstruct a complete, large faunal assemblage for different periods in the past. Using the first complete phylogeny of all known native New Zealand bird species, both extant and extinct, we show how the taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity of extinction, and biological correlates of extinction, change from the pre-human period through Polynesian and European occupation, to the present. These changes can be explained both by changes in primary threatening processes, and by the operation of extinction filter effects. The variable patterns of extinction through time may confound attempts to identify risk factors that apply across time periods, and to infer future species declines from past extinction patterns and current threat status. PMID:22859591

  15. Magma-salt interactions and degassing from the Tunguska Basin, Siberia: Towards a new killer model for the P-Tr mass extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svensen, H.; Planke, S.; Polozov, A.; Schmidbauer, N.

    2006-12-01

    Life on Earth was severely affected during the Permo-Triasic mass extinction. A 5-10º C global warming and oceanic anoxia accompanied the mass extinction. There is a consensus that massive volcanic eruptions from the Siberian Traps Large igneous province 251 million years ago played a key role in the environmental catastrophe. However, the actual mechanisms are strongly debated. We present new field, geochemical and experimental data that links both the mass extinction and the global warming to processes in the Tunguska Basin in Siberia. The basin is composed of dominantly Cambrian evaporates and Ordovician to Permian marine to terrestrial carbonates, sandstones, shales and coals. During the formation of the Siberian Traps, these sediments were intruded by magmatic sills and dykes. The emplacement resulted in heating of the sedimentary host rocks, gas generation and formation of hundreds of explosion pipes. The pipes are rooted in a 1-2 km thick evaporate sequence (halite, anhydrate, dolostone) and contain brecciated and altered sedimentary and magmatic rocks. Borehole data show intense alteration in the contact aureoles around sill intrusions and around the pipes. Heating experiments of hydrocarbon-bearing evaporates show that gases generated during metamorphism include CO2, SO2 and a range of halocarbons and sulfur-bearing hydrocarbon gases. Furthermore, chloride isotope data from the contact aureoles support a removal of Cl during metamorphism. Our results demonstrate that metamorphism and degassing from the Tunguska Basin provided the necessary components to cause an environmental disaster, including destruction of the Late Permian ozone layer.

  16. Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction.

    PubMed

    De Vos, Jurriaan M; Joppa, Lucas N; Gittleman, John L; Stephens, Patrick R; Pimm, Stuart L

    2015-04-01

    A key measure of humanity's global impact is by how much it has increased species extinction rates. Familiar statements are that these are 100-1000 times pre-human or background extinction levels. Estimating recent rates is straightforward, but establishing a background rate for comparison is not. Previous researchers chose an approximate benchmark of 1 extinction per million species per year (E/MSY). We explored disparate lines of evidence that suggest a substantially lower estimate. Fossil data yield direct estimates of extinction rates, but they are temporally coarse, mostly limited to marine hard-bodied taxa, and generally involve genera not species. Based on these data, typical background loss is 0.01 genera per million genera per year. Molecular phylogenies are available for more taxa and ecosystems, but it is debated whether they can be used to estimate separately speciation and extinction rates. We selected data to address known concerns and used them to determine median extinction estimates from statistical distributions of probable values for terrestrial plants and animals. We then created simulations to explore effects of violating model assumptions. Finally, we compiled estimates of diversification-the difference between speciation and extinction rates for different taxa. Median estimates of extinction rates ranged from 0.023 to 0.135 E/MSY. Simulation results suggested over- and under-estimation of extinction from individual phylogenies partially canceled each other out when large sets of phylogenies were analyzed. There was no evidence for recent and widespread pre-human overall declines in diversity. This implies that average extinction rates are less than average diversification rates. Median diversification rates were 0.05-0.2 new species per million species per year. On the basis of these results, we concluded that typical rates of background extinction may be closer to 0.1 E/MSY. Thus, current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural

  17. LINE DERIVED INFRARED EXTINCTION TOWARD THE GALACTIC CENTER

    SciTech Connect

    Fritz, T. K.; Gillessen, S.; Dodds-Eden, K.; Lutz, D.; Genzel, R.; Raab, W.; Ott, T.; Pfuhl, O.; Eisenhauer, F.; Yusef-Zadeh, F.

    2011-08-20

    We derive the extinction curve toward the Galactic center (GC) from 1 to 19 {mu}m. We use hydrogen emission lines of the minispiral observed by ISO-SWS and SINFONI. The extinction-free flux reference is the 2 cm continuum emission observed by the Very Large Array. Toward the inner 14'' x 20'', we find an extinction of A{sub 2.166{mu}m} = 2.62 {+-} 0.11, with a power-law slope of {alpha} = -2.11 {+-} 0.06 shortward of 2.8 {mu}m, consistent with the average near-infrared slope from the recent literature. At longer wavelengths, however, we find that the extinction is grayer than shortward of 2.8 {mu}m. We find that it is not possible to fit the observed extinction curve with a dust model consisting of pure carbonaceous and silicate grains only, and the addition of composite particles, including ices, is needed to explain the observations. Combining a distance-dependent extinction with our distance-independent extinction, we derive the distance to the GC to be R{sub 0} = 7.94 {+-} 0.65 kpc. Toward Sgr A* (r < 0.''5), we obtain A{sub H} = 4.21 {+-} 0.10, A{sub Ks} = 2.42 {+-} 0.10, and A{sub L'} = 1.09 {+-} 0.13.

  18. Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

    PubMed Central

    Purvis, Andy; Sechrest, Wes; Gittleman, John L; Bielby, Jon; Mace, Georgina M

    2004-01-01

    Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future. PMID:15252445

  19. Immigration-extinction dynamics of stochastic populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meerson, Baruch; Ovaskainen, Otso

    2013-07-01

    How high should be the rate of immigration into a stochastic population in order to significantly reduce the probability of observing the population become extinct? Is there any relation between the population size distributions with and without immigration? Under what conditions can one justify the simple patch occupancy models, which ignore the population distribution and its dynamics in a patch, and treat a patch simply as either occupied or empty? We answer these questions by exactly solving a simple stochastic model obtained by adding a steady immigration to a variant of the Verhulst model: a prototypical model of an isolated stochastic population.

  20. Investigation of ultraviolet interstellar extinction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Payne, C.; Haramundanis, K. L.

    1973-01-01

    Results concerning interstellar extinction in the ultraviolet are reported. These results were initially obtained by using data from main-sequence stars and were extended to include supergiants and emission stars. The principal finding of the analysis of ultraviolet extinction is not only that it is wavelength dependent, but that if changes with galactic longitude in the U3 passband (lambda sub eff = 1621 A); it does not change significantly in the U2 passband (lambda sub eff = 2308 A). Where data are available in the U4 passband (lambda sub eff = 1537 A), they confirm the rapid rise of extinction in the ultraviolet found by other investigators. However, in all cases, emission stars must be used with great caution. It is important to realize that while extinction continues to rise toward shorter wavelengths in the ultraviolet, including the shortest ultraviolet wavelengths measured (1100 A), it no longer plays an important role in the X-ray region (50 A).

  1. What Caused the Mass Extinction?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alvarez, Walter; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Presented are the arguments of two different points of view on the mass extinction of the dinosaurs. Evidence of extraterrestrial impact theory and massive volcanic eruption theory are discussed. (CW)

  2. Walking to Olympus: An EVA Chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Portree, David S. F.; Trevino, Robert C.

    1997-01-01

    Spacewalkers enjoy a view of Earth once reserved for Apollo, Zeus, and other denizens of Mt. Olympus. During humanity's first extravehicular activity (EVA), Alexei Leonov floated above Gibraltar, the rock ancient seafarers saw as the gateway to the great unknown Atlantic. The symbolism was clear, Leonov stepped past a new Gibraltar when he stepped into space. More than 32 years and 154 EVAs later, Jerry Linenger conducted an EVA with Vladimir Tsibliyev as part of International Space Station Phase 1. They floated together above Gibraltar. Today the symbolism has new meaning: humanity is starting to think of stepping out of Earth orbit, space travel's new Gibraltar, and perhaps obtaining a new olympian view, a close-up look at Olympus Mons on Mars. Walking to Olympus: An EVA Chronology chronicles the 154 EVAs conducted from March 1965 to April 1997. It is intended to make clear the crucial role played by EVA in the history of spaceflight, as well as to chronicle the large body of EVA "lessons learned." Russia and the U.S. define EVA differently. Russian cosmonauts are said to perform EVA any time they are in vacuum in a space suit. A U.S. astronaut must have at least his head outside his spacecraft before he is said to perform an EVA. The difference is based in differing spacecraft design philoso- phies. Russian and Soviet spacecraft have always had a specialized airlock through which the EVA cosmonaut egressed, leaving the main habitable volume of the spacecraft pressurized. The U.S. Gemini and Apollo vehicles, on the other hand, depressurized their entire habitable volume for egress. In this document, we apply the Russian definition to Russian EVAS, and the U.S. definition to U.S. EVAS. Thus, for example, Gemini 4 Command Pilot James McDivitt does not share the honor of being first American spacewalker with Ed White, even though he was suited and in vacuum when White stepped out into space. Non-EVA spaceflights are listed in the chronology to provide context and to

  3. The study of fear extinction: implications for anxiety disorders.

    PubMed

    Graham, Bronwyn M; Milad, Mohammed R

    2011-12-01

    In this review, the authors propose that the fear extinction model can be used as an experimental tool to cut across symptom dimensions of multiple anxiety disorders to enhance our understanding of the psychopathology of these disorders and potentially facilitate the detection of biomarkers for them. The authors evaluate evidence for this proposition from studies examining the neurocircuitry underlying fear extinction in rodents, healthy humans, and clinical populations. The authors also assess the potential use of the fear extinction model to predict vulnerability for anxiety and treatment response and to improve existing treatments or develop novel ones. Finally, the authors suggest potential directions for future research that will help to further validate extinction as a biomarker for anxiety across diagnostic categories and to bridge the gap between basic neuroscience and clinical practice. PMID:21865528

  4. WD2014: A new reference chronology for ice cores from Antarctica?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigl, Michael; McConnell, Joseph R.; Winstrup, Mai; Fudge, Taylor J.; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Ferris, David; Taylor, Kendrick; Buizert, Christo; Rhodes, Rachael; McGwire, Ken; Welten, Kees C.; Woodruff, Thomas E.; Dunbar, Nelia; Iverson, Nels; Maselli, Olivia J.; Pasteris, Daniel R.; Muscheler, Raimund

    2015-04-01

    Here we present a chronology (WD2014) for the upper part (0-2850 m, 31.2 ka BP) of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)-Divide ice core which is based on layer counting of distinctive annual cycles preserved in the elemental, chemical and electrical conductivity records. These cycles are caused by the seasonally varying impurity concentrations in snowfall reflecting source strength of emissions, transport and deposition efficiency. A new ice core chronology has been developed using manual interpretation as well as by using a layer detection algorithm based on Hidden Markov Models taking advantage of the large suite of sub-annually resolved and co-registered aerosol records from high-resolution continuous measurements. The age model is validated against the absolute dated radiocarbon calibration curve IntCal13 using ice-core Be-10 measurements for proxy synchronization. These records reveal an unprecedented accuracy of the new ice core chronology since the Last Glacial Maximum. The new chronology can become a reference chronology for ice cores with synchronization to other ice cores achievable through the unique high-resolution sulfur record indicating hundreds of volcanic signals common to many other deep ice cores in Antarctica. A developing tephra framework for ice cores from West Antarctica will allow to better integrating Antarctic ice cores and the marine and terrestrial records from the southern hemisphere in the future, thus gaining a detailed chronologic picture of climatic changes and environmental consequences for the region over the past 31,000 years. This southern hemisphere perspective is a fundamental step in developing a detailed global understanding of the effects of past climate changes, and its implications for the future. Due to a small ice-age gas-age difference (delta-age) at WAIS Divide - because of high annual snowfall rates at this site - and a new high-resolution WAIS CH4 record, this new ice core chronology provides also independent

  5. The Sixth Great Mass Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wagler, Ron

    2012-01-01

    Five past great mass extinctions have occurred during Earth's history. Humanity is currently in the midst of a sixth, human-induced great mass extinction of plant and animal life (e.g., Alroy 2008; Jackson 2008; Lewis 2006; McDaniel and Borton 2002; Rockstrom et al. 2009; Rohr et al. 2008; Steffen, Crutzen, and McNeill 2007; Thomas et al. 2004;…

  6. Series cell light extinction monitor

    DOEpatents

    Novick, Vincent J.

    1990-01-01

    A method and apparatus for using the light extinction measurements from two or more light cells positioned along a gasflow chamber in which the gas volumetric rate is known to determine particle number concentration and mass concentration of an aerosol independent of extinction coefficient and to determine estimates for particle size and mass concentrations. The invention is independent of particle size. This invention has application to measurements made during a severe nuclear reactor fuel damage test.

  7. Magnetic reversals and mass extinctions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raup, D. M.

    1985-01-01

    The results of a study of reversals of the earth's magnetic field over the past 165 Myr are presented. A stationary periodicity of 30 Myr emerges which predicts pulses of increased reversal activity centered at 10, 40, 70, . . . Myr before the present. The correlation between the reversal intensity and biological extinctions is examined, and a nontrivial discrepancy is found between the magnetic and extinction periodicity.

  8. European quaternary refugia: a factor in large carnivore extinction?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Regan, Hannah J.; Turner, Alan; Wilkinson, David M.

    2002-12-01

    The extinction of large carnivores in Europe during the Quaternary is reviewed and the potential role of glacial refugia in these extinctions is investigated using the VORTEX model for population viability analysis. A model was built for a medium sized big cat similar to the extinct Panthera gombaszoegensis utilising life history data from the modern jaguar Panthera onca. This approach highlighted the potential importance of glacial refugia in the extinction process. Even model refugia the size of the Italian peninsula did not guarantee persistence of a population over a 1000 yr time span, illustrating the role of chance in survival in such a refugium. An area the size of the largest Mediterranean island was unable to support a big cat population for a period of 1000 yr. The models also demonstrated the importance of inbreeding as a mechanism for extinction in refugia. It is suggested that repeated genetic bottlenecks during successive glaciations would tend to remove lethal recessive alleles from the population, increasing the probability of survival in refugia in subsequent glaciations. The history of extinction of large carnivores in the European Quaternary is interpreted in the light of these results.

  9. IR emission and UV extinction in two open clusters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hackwell, James A.; Hecht, James H.

    1989-01-01

    Recent models of interstellar extinction have shown the importance of understanding both the UV and IR properties of interstellar dust grains. IRAS data have shown variations in 60 and 100 micron emissions presumably due to the presence of IR cirrus, while recent observations in the UV by Fitzpatrick and Massa have identified components in the UV extinction curve which vary in different star regions. A Draine and Anderson model connects these results by proposing that different size variations in interstellar grains would cause distinct changes in both the IR emission and the UV extinction. In order to test this model it is necessary to make observations in well defined locations away from peculiar extinction regions. In the infrared this means looking away from the galactic plane so as to limit non-local sources of IR radiation. Two open clusters that are out of the galactic plane and which contain a number of late B and early A stars suitable for UV extinction studies, and whose IRAS data show variations in the 60/100 micron ratio were studied. Based on the Drain and Anderson model, variations were expected in their UV extinction curves that correlate with the IR cirrus emission.

  10. Quantitative and qualitative approaches to identifying migration chronology in a continental migrant

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beatty, William S.; Kesler, Dylan C.; Webb, Elisabeth B.; Raedeke, Andrew H.; Naylor, Luke W.; Humburg, Dale D.

    2013-01-01

    The degree to which extrinsic factors influence migration chronology in North American waterfowl has not been quantified, particularly for dabbling ducks. Previous studies have examined waterfowl migration using various methods, however, quantitative approaches to define avian migration chronology over broad spatio-temporal scales are limited, and the implications for using different approaches have not been assessed. We used movement data from 19 female adult mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) equipped with solar-powered global positioning system satellite transmitters to evaluate two individual level approaches for quantifying migration chronology. The first approach defined migration based on individual movements among geopolitical boundaries (state, provincial, international), whereas the second method modeled net displacement as a function of time using nonlinear models. Differences in migration chronologies identified by each of the approaches were examined with analysis of variance. The geopolitical method identified mean autumn migration midpoints at 15 November 2010 and 13 November 2011, whereas the net displacement method identified midpoints at 15 November 2010 and 14 November 2011. The mean midpoints for spring migration were 3 April 2011 and 20 March 2012 using the geopolitical method and 31 March 2011 and 22 March 2012 using the net displacement method. The duration, initiation date, midpoint, and termination date for both autumn and spring migration did not differ between the two individual level approaches. Although we did not detect differences in migration parameters between the different approaches, the net displacement metric offers broad potential to address questions in movement ecology for migrating species. Ultimately, an objective definition of migration chronology will allow researchers to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the extrinsic factors that drive migration at the individual and population levels. As a result, targeted

  11. Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches to Identifying Migration Chronology in a Continental Migrant

    PubMed Central

    Beatty, William S.; Kesler, Dylan C.; Webb, Elisabeth B.; Raedeke, Andrew H.; Naylor, Luke W.; Humburg, Dale D.

    2013-01-01

    The degree to which extrinsic factors influence migration chronology in North American waterfowl has not been quantified, particularly for dabbling ducks. Previous studies have examined waterfowl migration using various methods, however, quantitative approaches to define avian migration chronology over broad spatio-temporal scales are limited, and the implications for using different approaches have not been assessed. We used movement data from 19 female adult mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) equipped with solar-powered global positioning system satellite transmitters to evaluate two individual level approaches for quantifying migration chronology. The first approach defined migration based on individual movements among geopolitical boundaries (state, provincial, international), whereas the second method modeled net displacement as a function of time using nonlinear models. Differences in migration chronologies identified by each of the approaches were examined with analysis of variance. The geopolitical method identified mean autumn migration midpoints at 15 November 2010 and 13 November 2011, whereas the net displacement method identified midpoints at 15 November 2010 and 14 November 2011. The mean midpoints for spring migration were 3 April 2011 and 20 March 2012 using the geopolitical method and 31 March 2011 and 22 March 2012 using the net displacement method. The duration, initiation date, midpoint, and termination date for both autumn and spring migration did not differ between the two individual level approaches. Although we did not detect differences in migration parameters between the different approaches, the net displacement metric offers broad potential to address questions in movement ecology for migrating species. Ultimately, an objective definition of migration chronology will allow researchers to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the extrinsic factors that drive migration at the individual and population levels. As a result, targeted

  12. Dust extinction of the stellar continua in starburst galaxies: The ultraviolet and optical extinction law

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Calzetti, Daniela; Kinney, Anne L.; Storchi-Bergmann, Thaisa

    1994-01-01

    We analyze the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) UV and the optical spectra of 39 starburst and blue compact galaxies in order to study the average properties of dust extinction in extended regions of galaxies. The optical spectra have been obtained using an aperture which matches that of IUE, so comparable regions within each galaxy are sampled. The data from the 39 galaxies are compared with five models for the geometrical distribution of dust, adopting as extinction laws both the Milky Way and the Large Magellanic Cloud laws. The commonly used uniform dust screen is included among the models. We find that none of the five models is in satisfactory agreement with the data. In order to understand the discrepancy between the data and the models, we have derived an extinction law directly from the data in the UV and optical wavelength range. The resulting curve is characterized by an overall slope which is more gray than the Milky Way extinction law's slope, and by the absence of the 2175 A dust feature. Remarkably, the difference in optical depth between the Balmer emission lines H(sub alpha) and H(sub beta) is about a factor of 2 larger than the difference in the optical depth between the continuum underlying the two Balmer lines. We interpret this discrepancy as a consequence of the fact that the hot ionizing stars are associated with dustier regions than the cold stellar population is. The absence of the 2175 A dust feature can be due either to the effects of the scattering and clumpiness of the dust or to a chemical composition different from that of the Milky Way dust grains. Disentangling the two interpretations is not easy because of the complexity of the spatial distribution of the emitting regions. The extinction law of the UV and optical spectral continua of extended regions can be applied to the spectra of medium- and high-redshift galaxies, where extended regions of a galaxy are, by necessity, sampled.

  13. AMS 14C and OSL/IRSL dating of the Dunaszekcső loess sequence (Hungary): chronology for 20 to 150 ka and implications for establishing reliable age-depth models for the last 40 ka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Újvári, Gábor; Molnár, Mihály; Novothny, Ágnes; Páll-Gergely, Barna; Kovács, János; Várhegyi, András

    2014-12-01

    As revealed by 18 AMS radiocarbon and 24 OSL/IRSL ages the Dunaszekcső loess-paleosol sequence is an excellent terrestrial record of paleoenvironmental change in the Carpathian Basin for the last 130 ka, with significant soil forming episodes during the Eemian interglacial (130-115 ka, MIS 5e) and in some subsequent MIS 5 stages, and distinct periods of loess accumulations during the MIS 4 and MIS 2. Charcoals from the sequence made it possible to test the accuracy of 14C ages from mollusc shells. This approach revealed that 14C ages from some gastropods having small shells (<10 mm) (Succinella oblonga, Vitrea crystallina) are statistically indistinguishable from the ages of charcoals, while others (Clausiliidae sp., Chondrula tridens) show age anomalies up to 600-800 years. OSL and pIRIR@290 ages are found to be consistently older, while post-IR OSL ages are younger than the 14C ages from charcoals and molluscs by some thousands of years, except for pIRIR@225 ages that match the radiocarbon ages quite well. OSL and IRSL ages have scatters up to 7-10 thousand years within 40 ka, while charcoals and small molluscs yield consistent ages with relatively low variability. Beyond the observation that some small molluscs seem to yield reliable 14C ages, calibrated 2σ age ranges of the radiocarbon data (ca 500-800 years for 20 to 30 ka) are an order of magnitude narrower than those of the OSL/IRSL methods (1800-4000 years for 25 to 35 ka). Thus, for establishing chronologies within 40 ka, which are both accurate and precise enough to address issues like synchroneity of millennial-scale paleoenvironmental events across regions (e.g. North Atlantic and Europe), AMS radiocarbon dating of shells of specific loess molluscs and charcoals may probably be a powerful chronological tool. However, additional work is definitely required involving 14C and OSL/IRSL dates from other loess sequences to further test the performance of these two supposedly robust chronometers.

  14. Stress-enhanced fear learning in rats is resistant to the effects of immediate massed extinction

    PubMed Central

    Long, Virginia A.; Fanselow, Michael S.

    2014-01-01

    Enhanced fear learning occurs subsequent to traumatic or stressful events and is a persistent challenge to the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Facilitation of learning produced by prior stress can elicit an exaggerated fear response to a minimally aversive event or stimulus. Stress-enhanced fear learning (SEFL) is a rat model of PTSD; rats previously exposed to the SEFL 15 electrical shocks procedure exhibit several behavioral responses similar to those seen in patients with PTSD. However, past reports found that SEFL is not mitigated by extinction (a model of exposure therapy) when the spaced extinction began 24 h after stress. Recent studies found that extinction from 10 min to 1 h subsequent to fear conditioning “erased” learning, whereas later extinction, occurring from 24 to 72 h after conditioning did not. Other studies indicate that massed extinction is more effective than spaced procedures. Therefore, we examined the time-dependent nature of extinction on the stress-induced enhancement of fear learning using a massed trial’s procedure. Experimental rats received 15 foot shocks and were given either no extinction or massed extinction 10 min or 72 h later. Our present data indicate that SEFL, following traumatic stress, is resistant to immediate massed extinction. Experimental rats showed exaggerated new fear learning regardless of when extinction training occurred. Thus, post-traumatic reactivity such as SEFL does not seem responsive to extinction treatments. PMID:22176467

  15. Dispersal and extinction in fragmented landscapes.

    PubMed Central

    Thomas, C D

    2000-01-01

    Evolutionary and population dynamics models suggest that the migration rate will affect the probability of survival in fragmented landscapes. Using data for butterfly species in the fragmented British landscape and in immediately adjoining areas of the European continent, this paper shows that species of intermediate mobility have declined most, followed by those of low mobility, whereas high-mobility species are generally surviving well. Compared to the more sedentary species, species of intermediate mobility require relatively large areas where they breed at slightly lower local densities. Intermediate mobility species have probably fared badly through a combination of metapopulation (extinction and colonization) dynamics and the mortality of migrating individuals which fail to find new habitats in fragmented landscapes. Habitat fragmentation is likely to result in the non-random extinction of populations and species characterized by different levels of dispersal, although the details are likely to depend on the taxa, habitats and regions considered. PMID:10687818

  16. Causes and timing of future biosphere extinctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franck, S.; Bounama, C.; von Bloh, W.

    2006-03-01

    We present a minimal model for the global carbon cycle of the Earth containing the reservoirs mantle, ocean floor, continental crust, biosphere, and the kerogen, as well as the combined ocean and atmosphere reservoir. The model is specified by introducing three different types of biosphere: procaryotes, eucaryotes, and complex multicellular life. During the entire existence of the biosphere procaryotes are always present. 2 Gyr ago eucaryotic life first appears. The emergence of complex multicellular life is connected with an explosive increase in biomass and a strong decrease in Cambrian global surface temperature at about 0.54 Gyr ago. In the long-term future the three types of biosphere will die out in reverse sequence of their appearance. We show that there is no evidence for an implosion-like extinction in contrast to the Cambrian explosion. In dependence of their temperature tolerance complex multicellular life and eucaryotes become extinct in about 0.8-1.2 Gyr and 1.3-1.5 Gyr, respectively. The ultimate life span of the biosphere is defined by the extinction of procaryotes in about 1.6 Gyr.

  17. Chronology and complexity of early lunar crust

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dasch, E. J.; Ryder, G.; Nyquist, L. E.

    1989-01-01

    The petrology and chronology of early lunar crust is examined using the least equivocal of the available petrographic and age data on lunar rock samples, and the possible processes which produced the lunar crust are discussed. The results suggest that the lunar anorthositic crust was formed by about 120 Ma after the primary accretion of the moon at 4.56 Ga. At least some members of the diverse Mg-suites of rocks, such as norites, troctolites, and dunites, crystallized within a very few 100s of Ma after 4.56 Ga. A trace-element-rich material (KREEP) was formed by about 4.3 Ga ago, and this residue was subsequently reworked in melting and impact processes such that most samples which contain it have ages around 3.9-4.0 Ga. The findings also suggest that the onset of ferrous mare basalt volcanism began about 4.33 Ga, much earlier than was once assumed, and was still in process before the end of the most intense period of bombardment (3.9-4.0 Ga ago).

  18. Astronautics and Aeronautics, 1991-1995: A Chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gawdiak, Ihor Y. (Compiler); Shetland, Charles (Compiler)

    2000-01-01

    This chronology of events in aeronautics, aviation, space science, and space exploration was prepared by the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress and RSIS for the History Division of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). It covers the years 1991-1995 and continues the series of annual chronologies published by NASA. The present volume uses the format of the previous edition of this series, Astronautics and Aeronautics, 1986-1990: A Chronology. It also integrates, in the appendices, information presented in previous publication

  19. Astronautics and Aeronautics, 1986-1990: A Chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gawdiak, Ihor Y.; Miro, Ramon J.; Stueland, Sam

    1997-01-01

    This chronology of events in aeronautics, aviation, space science, and space exploration was prepared by the Federal Research Division of the LibrarY of Congress for the History Division of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). It covers the years 1996-1990 and continues the series of annual chronologies published by NASA. The present volume returns to the format used in the Astronautics and Aeronautics, 1979-1984: A Chronology volume. It also integrates in a single table the information presented in two or three previous publications.

  20. Inter-comparison of MAX-DOAS Retrieved Vertical Profiles of Aerosol Extinction, SO2 and NO2 in the Alberta Oil Sands with LIDAR Data and GEM-MACH Air Quality Model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, Zoe; Friess, Udo; Strawbridge, Kevin; Whiteway, James; Aggarwal, Monika; Makar, Paul; Li, Shao-Meng; O'Brien, Jason; Baray, Sabour; Schnitzler, Elijah; Olfert, Jason S.; Osthoff, Hans D.; Lobo, Akshay; McLaren, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Understanding industrial emissions of trace gas pollutants in the Alberta oil sands is essential to maintaining air quality standards and informing public policy. Multi-Axis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) measurements of trace gases can improve knowledge of pollutant levels, vertical distribution and chemical transformation. During an intensive air measurement campaign to study emissions, transport, transformation and deposition of oil sands air pollutants from August to September of 2013, a MAX-DOAS instrument was deployed at a site north of Fort McMurray, Alberta to determine the vertical profiles of aerosol extinction, NO2 and SO2 through retrieval from the MAX-DOAS spectral measurements using an optimal estimation method. The large complement of data collected from multiple instruments deployed during this field campaign provides a unique opportunity to validate and characterize the performance of the MAX-DOAS vertical profile retrievals. Aerosol extinction profiles determined from two Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) instruments, one collocated and the other on a Twin Otter aircraft that flew over the site during the study, will be compared to the MAX-DOAS aerosol extinction profile retrievals. Vertical profiles of NO2 and SO2 retrieved from the MAX-DOAS measurements will be further compared with the composite vertical profiles measured from the flights of a second aircraft, the NRC-Convair 580, over the field site during the same measurement period. Finally, the MAX-DOAS retrieved tropospheric vertical column densities (VCDs) of SO2 and NO2 will be compared to the predicted VCDs from Environment and Climate Change Canada's Global Environmental Multi-scale - Modelling Air quality and Chemistry (GEM-MACH) air quality model over the grid cell containing the field site. Emission estimates of SO2 from the major oil mining facility Syncrude Mildred Lake using the MAX-DOAS VCD results, validated through the detailed characterization above

  1. Extinction as a driver of avian latitudinal diversity gradients.

    PubMed

    Pulido-Santacruz, Paola; Weir, Jason T

    2016-04-01

    The role of historical factors in driving latitudinal diversity gradients is poorly understood. Here, we used an updated global phylogeny of terrestrial birds to test the role of three key historical factors-speciation, extinction, and dispersal rates-in generating latitudinal diversity gradients for eight major clades. We fit a model that allows speciation, extinction, and dispersal rates to differ, both with latitude and between the New and Old World. Our results consistently support extinction (all clades had lowest extinction where species richness was highest) as a key driver of species richness gradients across each of eight major clades. In contrast, speciation and dispersal rates showed no consistent latitudinal patterns across replicate bird clades, and thus are unlikely to represent general underlying drivers of latitudinal diversity gradients. PMID:26940812

  2. Noise-induced switching and extinction in systems with delay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwartz, Ira B.; Billings, Lora; Carr, Thomas W.; Dykman, M. I.

    2015-01-01

    We consider the rates of noise-induced switching between the stable states of dissipative dynamical systems with delay and also the rates of noise-induced extinction, where such systems model population dynamics. We study a class of systems where the evolution depends on the dynamical variables at a preceding time with a fixed time delay, which we call hard delay. For weak noise, the rates of interattractor switching and extinction are exponentially small. Finding these rates to logarithmic accuracy is reduced to variational problems. The solutions of the variational problems give the most probable paths followed in switching or extinction. We show that the equations for the most probable paths are acausal and formulate the appropriate boundary conditions. Explicit results are obtained for small delay compared to the relaxation rate. We also develop a direct variational method to find the rates. We find that the analytical results agree well with the numerical simulations for both switching and extinction rates.

  3. Evolution and Extinction Dynamics in Rugged Fitness Landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibani, Paolo; Brandt, Michael; Alstrøm, Preben

    After an introductory section summarizing the paleontological data and some of their theoretical descriptions, we describe the "reset" model and its (in part analytically soluble) mean field version, which have been briefly introduced in Letters.1,2 Macroevolution is considered as a problem of stochastic dynamics in a system with many competing agents. Evolutionary events (speciations and extinctions) are triggered by fitness records found by random exploration of the agents' fitness landscapes. As a consequence, the average fitness in the system increases logarithmically with time, while the rate of extinction steadily decreases. This non-stationary dynamics is studied by numerical simulations and, in a simpler mean field version, analytically. We also consider the effect of externally added "mass" extinctions. The predictions for various quantities of paleontological interest (life-time distribution, distribution of event sizes and behavior of the rate of extinction) are robust and in good agreement with available data.

  4. Rarity Value and Species Extinction: The Anthropogenic Allee Effect

    PubMed Central

    Courchamp, Franck; Signoret, Laetitia; Bull, Leigh; Meinard, Yves

    2006-01-01

    Standard economic theory predicts that exploitation alone is unlikely to result in species extinction because of the escalating costs of finding the last individuals of a declining species. We argue that the human predisposition to place exaggerated value on rarity fuels disproportionate exploitation of rare species, rendering them even rarer and thus more desirable, ultimately leading them into an extinction vortex. Here we present a simple mathematical model and various empirical examples to show how the value attributed to rarity in some human activities could precipitate the extinction of rare species—a concept that we term the anthropogenic Allee effect. The alarming finding that human perception of rarity can precipitate species extinction has serious implications for the conservation of species that are rare or that may become so, be they charismatic and emblematic or simply likely to become fashionable for certain activities. PMID:17132047

  5. Astronautics and aeronautics, 1970. Chronology on science, technology, and policy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1972-01-01

    An immediate reference to aerospace-related events of 1970 is provided to help historians in preserving historical accuracy and precision. Chronologies of major NASA launches, and manned space flights for 1970 are included.

  6. Astronautics and Aeronautics, 1979-1984: A chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Janson, Bette R.; Ritchie, Eleanor H.

    1989-01-01

    This volume of the Astronautics and Aeronautics series covers 1979 through 1984. The series provides a chronological presentation of all significant events and developments in space exploration and the administration of the space program during the period covered.

  7. Dust Extinction toward Supernova 2014J in M82

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Jian; Jiang, B. W.; Li, Aigen; Li, Jun; Wang, Xiaofeng

    2015-08-01

    Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are powerful cosmological “standardizable candles” and the most precise distance indicators. However, the ultimate limiting factor in their use for precision cosmology rests on our ability to correct for the dust extinction toward them. SN 2014J in the starburst galaxy M82, the closest detected SN Ia in three decades, provides unparalleled opportunities to study the dust extinction. In order to derive the extinction as a function of wavelength, we model the color excesses toward SN 2014J observationally derived over a wide wavelength range in terms of dust models consisting of a mixture of silicate and graphite. The resulting extinction laws steeply rise toward the far ultraviolet, even steeper than that of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC). We infer a visual extinction of AV≈1.9 mag, a reddening of E(B-V)≈1.1 mag, and a total-to-selective extinction ratio of RV≈1.7, consistent with that previously derived from photometric, spectroscopic and polarimetric observations. The size distributions of the dust in the interstellar medium toward SN 2014J are skewed toward substantially smaller grains than that of the Milky Way and the SMC.

  8. Environmental variation, stochastic extinction, and competitive coexistence.

    PubMed

    Adler, Peter B; Drake, John M

    2008-11-01

    Understanding how environmental fluctuations affect population persistence is essential for predicting the ecological impacts of expected future increases in climate variability. However, two bodies of theory make opposite predictions about the effect of environmental variation on persistence. Single-species theory, common in conservation biology and population viability analyses, suggests that environmental variation increases the risk of stochastic extinction. By contrast, coexistence theory has shown that environmental variation can buffer inferior competitors against competitive exclusion through a storage effect. We reconcile these two perspectives by showing that in the presence of demographic stochasticity, environmental variation can increase the chance of extinction while simultaneously stabilizing coexistence. Our stochastic simulations of a two-species storage effect model reveal a unimodal relationship between environmental variation and coexistence time, implying maximum coexistence at intermediate levels of environmental variation. The unimodal pattern reflects the fact that the stabilizing influence of the storage effect accumulates rapidly at low levels of environmental variation, whereas the risk of extinction due to the combined effects of environmental variation and demographic stochasticity increases most rapidly at higher levels of variation. Future increases in environmental variation could either increase or decrease an inferior competitor's expected persistence time, depending on the distance between the present level of environmental variation and the optimal level anticipated by this theory. PMID:18817458

  9. Biostratigraphic case studies of six major extinctions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sloan, R. E.

    1988-01-01

    Biostratigraphic case studies of six major extinctions show all are gradual save one, which is a catastrophic extinction of terrestrial origin. These extinctions show a continuum of environmental insults from major to minor. The major causes of these extinctions are positive and negative eustatic sea level changes, temperature, or ecological competition. Extraterrestrial causes should not be posited without positive association with a stratigraphically sharp extinction. The Cretaceous-Tertiary terrestrial extinction is considerably smaller in percentage of extinction than the marine extinction and is spread over 10 my of the Cretaceous and 1 my of the Tertiary. Sixty percent of the 30 dinosaurs in the northern Great Plains of the U.S. and Canada had become extinct in the 9 my before the late Maastrichtian sea level drop. The best data on the Permo-Triassic terrestrial extinction are from the Karoo basin of South Africa. This is a series of 6 extinctions in some 8 my, recorded in some 2800 meters of sediment. Precision of dating is enhanced by the high rate of accumulation of these sediments. Few data are readily available on the timing of the marine Permo-Triassic extinction, due to the very restricted number of sequences of Tatarian marine rocks. The terminal Ordovician extinction at 438 my is relatively rapid, taking place over about 0.5 my. The most significant aspect of this extinction is a eustatic sea level lowering associated with a major episode of glaciation. New data on this extinction is the reduction from 61 genera of trilobites in North America to 14, for a 77 percent extinction. Another Ordovician extinction present over 10 percent of the North American craton occurs at 454 my in the form of a catastrophic extinction due to a volcanic eruption which blanketed the U.S. east of the Transcontinental Arch. This is the only other sizeable extinction in the Ordovician.

  10. Circulating Proteomic Signatures of Chronological Age.

    PubMed

    Menni, Cristina; Kiddle, Steven J; Mangino, Massimo; Viñuela, Ana; Psatha, Maria; Steves, Claire; Sattlecker, Martina; Buil, Alfonso; Newhouse, Stephen; Nelson, Sally; Williams, Stephen; Voyle, Nicola; Soininen, Hilkka; Kloszewska, Iwona; Mecocci, Patrizia; Tsolaki, Magda; Vellas, Bruno; Lovestone, Simon; Spector, Tim D; Dobson, Richard; Valdes, Ana M

    2015-07-01

    To elucidate the proteomic features of aging in plasma, the subproteome targeted by the SOMAscan assay was profiled in blood samples from 202 females from the TwinsUK cohort. Findings were replicated in 677 independent individuals from the AddNeuroMed, Alzheimer's Research UK, and Dementia Case Registry cohorts. Results were further validated using RNAseq data from whole blood in TwinsUK and the most significant proteins were tested for association with aging-related phenotypes after adjustment for age. Eleven proteins were associated with chronological age and were replicated at protein level in an independent population. These were further investigated at gene expression level in 384 females from the TwinsUK cohort. The two most strongly associated proteins were chordin-like protein 1 (meta-analysis β [SE] = 0.013 [0.001], p = 3.66 × 10(-46)) and pleiotrophin (0.012 [0.005], p = 3.88 × 10(-41)). Chordin-like protein 1 was also significantly correlated with birthweight (0.06 [0.02], p = 0.005) and with the individual Framingham 10-years cardiovascular risk scores in TwinsUK (0.71 [0.18], p = 9.9 × 10(-5)). Pleiotrophin is a secreted growth factor with a plethora of functions in multiple tissues and known to be a marker for cardiovascular risk and osteoporosis. Our study highlights the importance of proteomics to identify some molecular mechanisms involved in human health and aging. PMID:25123647

  11. Chronology of heavily cratered terrains on Mercury

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marchi, S.; Chapman, C. R.

    2012-12-01

    Imaging of Mercury by Mariner 10 revealed a planet with more extensive plains units than on the Moon. Even in heavily cratered terrain, there is a lack of craters <40 km in diameter, relative to the size-frequency distribution on the Moon, a result attributed to resurfacing by the formation of widespread "intercrater plains". MESSENGER imaging has revealed that the more recent smooth plains are generally the result of widespread volcanism (rather than fluidized impact basin ejecta) and that at least localized volcanism may have persisted until comparatively recent times, despite the crustal contraction evidenced by the numerous lobate scarps. The older intercrater plains may also be volcanic. Here we address the ages of the oldest, most heavily cratered regions on Mercury that may predate most of the visible intercrater plains. We scale to Mercury the lunar crater chronology recently developed by Morbidelli et al., [1] in order to interpret new crater counts on these terrains. We find that these craters are probably not saturated but may have been in equilibrium with a rapid resurfacing process, presumably volcanism that formed the earliest recognized intercrater plains. The crater retention age for this terrain, which contains the oldest large craters on Mercury, is surprisingly young, perhaps hundreds of millions of years younger than the heavily cratered pre-Nectarian terrains on the Moon [2]. These results are important for understanding the early geological and geophysical evolution of Mercury. References: [1] Morbidelli A., Marchi S., Bottke W.F., and Kring D.A. 2012. A sawtooth timeline for the first billion years of the lunar bombardment. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, in press. [2] Marchi S., Bottke W.F., Kring D.A., and Morbidelli A. 2012. The onset of the lunar cataclysm as recorded in its ancient crater populations. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 325, 27-38.

  12. The extinction of the dinosaurs.

    PubMed

    Brusatte, Stephen L; Butler, Richard J; Barrett, Paul M; Carrano, Matthew T; Evans, David C; Lloyd, Graeme T; Mannion, Philip D; Norell, Mark A; Peppe, Daniel J; Upchurch, Paul; Williamson, Thomas E

    2015-05-01

    Non-avian dinosaurs went extinct 66 million years ago, geologically coincident with the impact of a large bolide (comet or asteroid) during an interval of massive volcanic eruptions and changes in temperature and sea level. There has long been fervent debate about how these events affected dinosaurs. We review a wealth of new data accumulated over the past two decades, provide updated and novel analyses of long-term dinosaur diversity trends during the latest Cretaceous, and discuss an emerging consensus on the extinction's tempo and causes. Little support exists for a global, long-term decline across non-avian dinosaur diversity prior to their extinction at the end of the Cretaceous. However, restructuring of latest Cretaceous dinosaur faunas in North America led to reduced diversity of large-bodied herbivores, perhaps making communities more susceptible to cascading extinctions. The abruptness of the dinosaur extinction suggests a key role for the bolide impact, although the coarseness of the fossil record makes testing the effects of Deccan volcanism difficult. PMID:25065505

  13. Flood basalts and extinction events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stothers, Richard B.

    1993-01-01

    The largest known effusive eruptions during the Cenozoic and Mesozoic Eras, the voluminous flood basalts, have long been suspected as being associated with major extinctions of biotic species. Despite the possible errors attached to the dates in both time series of events, the significance level of the suspected correlation is found here to be 1 percent to 4 percent. Statistically, extinctions lag eruptions by a mean time interval that is indistinguishable from zero, being much less than the average residual derived from the correlation analysis. Oceanic flood basalts, however, must have had a different biological impact, which is still uncertain owing to the small number of known examples and differing physical factors. Although not all continental flood basalts can have produced major extinction events, the noncorrelating eruptions may have led to smaller marine extinction events that terminated at least some of the less catastrophically ending geologic stages. Consequently, the 26 Myr quasi-periodicity seen in major marine extinctions may be only a sampling effect, rather than a manifestation of underlying periodicity.

  14. Flood basalts and mass extinctions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morgan, W. Jason

    1988-01-01

    There appears to be a correlation between the times of flood basalts and mass-extinction events. There is a correlation of flood basalts and hotspot tracks--flood basalts appear to mark the beginning of a new hotspot. Perhaps there is an initial instability in the mantle that bursts forth as a flood basalt but then becomes a steady trickle that persists for many tens of millions of years. Suppose that flood basalts and not impacts cause the environmental changes that lead to mass-extinctions. This is a very testable hypothesis: it predicts that the ages of the flows should agree exactly with the times of extinctions. The Deccan and K-T ages agree with this hypothesis; An iridium anomaly at extinction boundaries apparently can be explained by a scaled-up eruption of the Hawaiian type; the occurrence of shocked-quartz is more of a problem. However if the flood basalts are all well dated and their ages indeed agree with extinction times, then surely some mechanism to appropriately produce shocked-quartz will be found.

  15. Chronology of KSC and KSC Related Events for 2012

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liston, Elaine E.

    2013-01-01

    This 2012 Chronology is published to describe and document KSC's role in NASA's progress. Materials for this Chronology were selected from a number of published sources. The document records KSC events of interest to historians and other researchers. Arrangement is by date of occurrence, though the source cited may be dated one or more days after the event. Materials were researched and compiled for publication by Archivist Elaine Liston.

  16. Chronology of KSC and KSC related events for 1992

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nail, Ken, Jr.

    1993-01-01

    This chronology is published to fulfill the requirements of KMI 2700.1 to describe and document KSC's role in NASA's progress. Materials for this chronology were selected from a number of published sources. The document records KSC events of interest to historians and other researchers. Arrangement is by date of occurrence, though the source cited may be dated one or more days after the event. An index is included.

  17. Prospects for Chronological Studies of Martian Rocks and Soils

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nyquist, L. E.; Shih, C-Y.; Reese, Y. D.

    2008-01-01

    Chronological information about Martian processes comes from two sources: Crater-frequency studies and laboratory studies of Martian meteorites. Each has limitations that could be overcome by studies of returned Martian rocks and soils. Chronology of Martian volcanism: The currently accepted chronology of Martian volcanic surfaces relies on crater counts for different Martian stratigraphic units [1]. However, there is a large inherent uncertainty for intermediate ages near 2 Ga ago. The effect of differing preferences for Martian cratering chronologies [1] is shown in Fig. 1. Stoeffler and Ryder [2] summarized lunar chronology, upon which Martian cratering chronology is based. Fig. 2 shows a curve fit to their data, and compares to it a corresponding lunar curve from [3]. The radiometric ages of some lunar and Martian meteorites as well as the crater-count delimiters for Martian epochs [4] also are shown for comparison to the craterfrequency curves. Scaling the Stoeffler-Ryder curve by a Mars/Moon factor of 1.55 [5] places Martian shergottite ages into the Early Amazonian to late Hesperian epochs, whereas using the lunar curve of [3] and a Mars/Moon factor 1 consigns the shergottites to the Middle-to-Late Amazonian, a less probable result. The problem is worsened if a continually decreasing cratering rate since 3 Ga ago is accepted [6]. We prefer the adjusted St ffler-Ryder curve because it gives better agreement with the meteorite ages (Fig.

  18. OxCal: versatile tool for developing paleoearthquake chronologies--a primer

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, J.J.; Ramsey, C.B.

    2009-01-01

    Ages of paleoearthquakes (events), i.e., evidence of earthquakes inferred from the geologic record, provide a critical constraint on estimation of the seismic hazard posed by an active fault. The radiocarbon calibration program OxCal (4.0.3 and above; Bronk Ramsey 2007, 2001) provides paleoseismologists with a straightforward but rigorous means of estimating these event ages and their uncertainties. Although initially developed for the chronologic modeling of archaeological data from diverse sources (e.g., radiocarbon, historical knowledge, etc.), OxCal is readily adaptable to other disciplines requiring chronological modeling, such as paleoseismology (Fumal et al. 2002; Lindvall et al. 2002; Kelson et al. 2006; Noriega et al. 2006; Lienkaemper and Williams 2007; Yen et al. 2008).

  19. Retrieval and Reconsolidation Accounts of Fear Extinction

    PubMed Central

    Ponnusamy, Ravikumar; Zhuravka, Irina; Poulos, Andrew M.; Shobe, Justin; Merjanian, Michael; Huang, Jeannie; Wolvek, David; O’Neill, Pia-Kelsey; Fanselow, Michael S.

    2016-01-01

    Extinction is the primary mode for the treatment of anxiety disorders. However, extinction memories are prone to relapse. For example, fear is likely to return when a prolonged time period intervenes between extinction and a subsequent encounter with the fear-provoking stimulus (spontaneous recovery). Therefore there is considerable interest in the development of procedures that strengthen extinction and to prevent such recovery of fear. We contrasted two procedures in rats that have been reported to cause such deepened extinction. One where extinction begins before the initial consolidation of fear memory begins (immediate extinction) and another where extinction begins after a brief exposure to the consolidated fear stimulus. The latter is thought to open a period of memory vulnerability similar to that which occurs during initial consolidation (reconsolidation update). We also included a standard extinction treatment and a control procedure that reversed the brief exposure and extinction phases. Spontaneous recovery was only found with the standard extinction treatment. In a separate experiment we tested fear shortly after extinction (i.e., within 6 h). All extinction procedures, except reconsolidation update reduced fear at this short-term test. The findings suggest that strengthened extinction can result from alteration in both retrieval and consolidation processes. PMID:27242459

  20. Infectious disease, endangerment, and extinction.

    PubMed

    Macphee, Ross D E; Greenwood, Alex D

    2013-01-01

    Infectious disease, especially virulent infectious disease, is commonly regarded as a cause of fluctuation or decline in biological populations. However, it is not generally considered as a primary factor in causing the actual endangerment or extinction of species. We review here the known historical examples in which disease has, or has been assumed to have had, a major deleterious impact on animal species, including extinction, and highlight some recent cases in which disease is the chief suspect in causing the outright endangerment of particular species. We conclude that the role of disease in historical extinctions at the population or species level may have been underestimated. Recent methodological breakthroughs may lead to a better understanding of the past and present roles of infectious disease in influencing population fitness and other parameters. PMID:23401844

  1. Speeding up spontaneous disease extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khasin, Michael

    2012-02-01

    The dynamics of epidemic in a susceptible population is affected both by the random character of interactions between the individuals and by environmental variations. As a consequence, the sizes of the population groups (infected, susceptible, etc.) fluctuate in the course of evolution of the epidemic. In a small community a rare large fluctuation in the number of infected can result in extinction of the disease. We suggest a novel paradigm of controlling the epidemic, where the control field, such as vaccination, is designed to maximize the rate of spontaneous disease extinction. We show that, for a limited-scope vaccination, the optimal vaccination protocol and its impact on the epidemics have universal features: (i) the vaccine must be applied in pulses, (ii) the spontaneous disease extinction is synchronized with the vaccination. We trace this universality to general properties of the response of large fluctuations to external perturbations.

  2. Infectious Disease, Endangerment, and Extinction

    PubMed Central

    MacPhee, Ross D. E.; Greenwood, Alex D.

    2013-01-01

    Infectious disease, especially virulent infectious disease, is commonly regarded as a cause of fluctuation or decline in biological populations. However, it is not generally considered as a primary factor in causing the actual endangerment or extinction of species. We review here the known historical examples in which disease has, or has been assumed to have had, a major deleterious impact on animal species, including extinction, and highlight some recent cases in which disease is the chief suspect in causing the outright endangerment of particular species. We conclude that the role of disease in historical extinctions at the population or species level may have been underestimated. Recent methodological breakthroughs may lead to a better understanding of the past and present roles of infectious disease in influencing population fitness and other parameters. PMID:23401844

  3. The atmospheric extinction of light

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughes, Stephen W.; Cowley, Michael; Powell, Sean; Carroll, Joshua

    2016-01-01

    An experiment is described that enables students to understand the properties of atmospheric extinction due to Rayleigh scattering. The experiment requires the use of red, green and blue lasers attached to a travelling microscope or similar device. The laser beams are passed through an artificial atmosphere, made from milky water, at varying depths, before impinging on either a light meter or a photodiode integral to a Picotech Dr. DAQ ADC. A plot of measured spectral intensity verses depth reveals the contribution Rayleigh scattering has to the extinction coefficient. For the experiment with the light meter, the extinction coefficients for red, green and blue light in the milky sample of water were 0.27, 0.36 and 0.47 cm-1 respectively and 0.032, 0.037 and 0.092 cm-1 for the Picotech Dr. DAQ ADC.

  4. Late Pleistocene Megafaunal Extinction Consistent With YDB Impact Hypothesis at Younger Dryas Onset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kennett, J. P.; Kennett, D. J.

    2008-12-01

    associated with abrupt and major vegetation changes, abrupt cooling, and widespread biomass burning at the onset of the Younger Dryas over North America. The stratigraphic and chronologic data are consistent with megafaunal extinction being caused by continental-scale ecosystem disruption due to an ET impact.

  5. Early Extinction after Fear Conditioning Yields a Context-Independent and Short-Term Suppression of Conditional Freezing in Rats

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chang, Chun-hui; Maren, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    Extinction of Pavlovian fear conditioning in rats is a useful model for therapeutic interventions in humans with anxiety disorders. Recently, we found that delivering extinction trials soon (15 min) after fear conditioning yields a short-term suppression of fear, but little long-term extinction. Here, we explored the possible mechanisms underlying…

  6. The galactic cycle of extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillman, Michael; Erenler, Hilary

    2008-01-01

    Global extinction and geological events have previously been linked with galactic events such as spiral arm crossings and galactic plane oscillation. The expectation that these are repeating predictable events has led to studies of periodicity in a wide set of biological, geological and climatic phenomena. Using data on carbon isotope excursions, large igneous provinces and impact craters, we identify three time zones of high geological activity which relate to the timings of the passage of the Solar System through the spiral arms. These zones are shown to include a significantly large proportion of high extinction periods. The mass extinction events at the ends of the Ordovician, Permian and Cretaceous occur in the first zone, which contains the predicted midpoints of the spiral arms. The start of the Cambrian, end of the Devonian and end of the Triassic occur in the second zone. The pattern of extinction timing in relation to spiral arm structure is supported by the positions of the superchrons and the predicted speed of the spiral arms. The passage times through an arm are simple multiples of published results on impact and fossil record periodicity and galactic plane half-periods. The total estimated passage time through four arms is 703.8 Myr. The repetition of extinction events at the same points in different spiral arm crossings suggests a common underlying galactic cause of mass extinctions, mediated through galactic effects on geological, solar and extra-solar processes. The two largest impact craters (Sudbury and Vredefort), predicted to have occurred during the early part of the first zone, extend the possible pattern to more than 2000 million years ago.

  7. Sedimentary environments and Pleistocene chronology of the Botany Basin, N.S.W., Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albani, A. D.

    1981-09-01

    The sedimentary sequence of the Pleistocene deposits of the Botany Basin were investigated using borehole samples and seismic data. A succession of environments from marine to terrestrial, separated by erosional surfaces, were recognized and, although absolute dating is not possible, a relative “minimum” chronology was established correlating erosional surfaces with sea-level fluctuations. Seismic surveys and borehole material from other sites indicate that the model presented here is applicable to other estuaries of N.S.W.

  8. Extinction risk of soil biota.

    PubMed

    Veresoglou, Stavros D; Halley, John M; Rillig, Matthias C

    2015-01-01

    No species lives on earth forever. Knowing when and why species go extinct is crucial for a complete understanding of the consequences of anthropogenic activity, and its impact on ecosystem functioning. Even though soil biota play a key role in maintaining the functioning of ecosystems, the vast majority of existing studies focus on aboveground organisms. Many questions about the fate of belowground organisms remain open, so the combined effort of theorists and applied ecologists is needed in the ongoing development of soil extinction ecology. PMID:26593272

  9. Extinction risk of soil biota

    PubMed Central

    Veresoglou, Stavros D.; Halley, John M.; Rillig, Matthias C.

    2015-01-01

    No species lives on earth forever. Knowing when and why species go extinct is crucial for a complete understanding of the consequences of anthropogenic activity, and its impact on ecosystem functioning. Even though soil biota play a key role in maintaining the functioning of ecosystems, the vast majority of existing studies focus on aboveground organisms. Many questions about the fate of belowground organisms remain open, so the combined effort of theorists and applied ecologists is needed in the ongoing development of soil extinction ecology. PMID:26593272

  10. Star formation and extinct radioactivities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cameron, A. G. W.

    1984-01-01

    An assessment is made of the evidence for the existence of now-extinct radioactivities in primitive solar system material, giving attention to implications for the early stages of sun and solar system formation. The characteristics of possible disturbances in dense molecular clouds which can initiate the formation of cloud cores is discussed, with emphasis on these disturbances able to generate fresh radioactivities. A one-solar mass red giant star on the asymptotic giant branch appears to have been the best candidate to account for the short-lived extinct radioactivities in the early solar system.

  11. Kinetic Effects of Aromatic Molecular Structures on Diffusion Flame Extinction

    SciTech Connect

    Won, Sang Hee; Dooley, S.; Dryer, F. L.; Ju, Yiguang

    2011-01-01

    Kinetic effects of aromatic molecular structures for jet fuel surrogates on the extinction of diffusion flames have been investigated experimentally and numerically in the counterflow configuration for toluene, n-propylbenzene, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene, and 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene. Quantitative measurement of OH concentration for aromatic fuels was conducted by directly measuring the quenching rate from the emission lifetimes of OH planar laser induced fluorescence (LIF). The kinetic models for toluene and 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene were validated against the measurements of extinction strain rates and LIF measurements. A semi-detailed n-propylbenzene kinetic model was developed and tested. The experimental results showed that the extinction limits are ranked from highest to lowest as n-propylbenzene, toluene, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene, and 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene. The present models for toluene and n-propylbenzene agree reasonably well with the measurements, whereas the model for 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene under-estimates extinction limits. Kinetic pathways of OH production and consumption were analyzed to investigate the impact of fuel fragmentation on OH formation. It was found that, for fuels with different molecular structures, the fuel decomposition pathways and their propagation into the formation of radical pool play an important role to determine the extinction limits of diffusion flames. Furthermore, OH concentrations were found to be representative of the entire radical pool concentration, the balance between chain branching and propagation/termination reactions and the balance between heat production from the reaction zone and heat losses to the fuel and oxidizer sides. Finally, a proposed “OH index,” was defined to demonstrate a linear correlation between extinction strain rate and OH index and fuel mole fraction, suggesting that the diffusion flame extinctions for the tested aromatic fuels can be determined by the capability of a fuel to establish a radical pool

  12. Distance and extinction determination for APOGEE stars with Bayesian method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jianling; Shi, Jianrong; Pan, Kaike; Chen, Bingqiu; Zhao, Yongheng; Wicker, James

    2016-08-01

    Using a Bayesian technology we derived distances and extinctions for over 100,000 red giant stars observed by the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) survey by taking into account spectroscopic constraints from the APOGEE stellar parameters and photometric constraints from 2MASS, as well as a prior knowledge on the Milky Way. Derived distances are compared with those from four other independent methods, the Hipparcos parallaxes, star clusters, APOGEE red clump stars, and asteroseismic distances from APOKASC (Rodrigues et al. 2014) and SAGA Catalogues (Casagrande et al. 2014). These comparisons covers four orders of magnitude in the distance scale from 0.02 kpc to 20 kpc. The results show that our distances agree very well with those from other methods: the mean relative difference between our Bayesian distances and those derived from other methods ranges from -4.2% to +3.6%, and the dispersion ranges from 15% to 25%. The extinctions toward all stars are also derived and compared with those from several other independent methods: the Rayleigh-Jeans Color Excess (RJCE) method, Gonzalez's two-dimensional extinction map, as well as three-dimensional extinction maps and models. The comparisons reveal that, overall, estimated extinctions agree very well, but RJCE tends to overestimate extinctions for cool stars and objects with low logg.

  13. Linking indices for biodiversity monitoring to extinction risk theory.

    PubMed

    McCarthy, Michael A; Moore, Alana L; Krauss, Jochen; Morgan, John W; Clements, Christopher F

    2014-12-01

    Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009. PMID:24820139

  14. Rapid recovery from the Late Ordovician mass extinction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krug, A. Z.; Patzkowsky, M. E.

    2004-01-01

    Understanding the evolutionary role of mass extinctions requires detailed knowledge of postextinction recoveries. However, most models of recovery hinge on a direct reading of the fossil record, and several recent studies have suggested that the fossil record is especially incomplete for recovery intervals immediately after mass extinctions. Here, we analyze a database of genus occurrences for the paleocontinent of Laurentia to determine the effects of regional processes on recovery and the effects of variations in preservation and sampling intensity on perceived diversity trends and taxonomic rates during the Late Ordovician mass extinction and Early Silurian recovery. After accounting for variation in sampling intensity, we find that marine benthic diversity in Laurentia recovered to preextinction levels within 5 million years, which is nearly 15 million years sooner than suggested by global compilations. The rapid turnover in Laurentia suggests that processes such as immigration may have been particularly important in the recovery of regional ecosystems from environmental perturbations. However, additional regional studies and a global analysis of the Late Ordovician mass extinction that accounts for variations in sampling intensity are necessary to confirm this pattern. Because the record of Phanerozoic mass extinctions and postextinction recoveries may be compromised by variations in preservation and sampling intensity, all should be reevaluated with sampling-standardized analyses if the evolutionary role of mass extinctions is to be fully understood.

  15. Distance and extinction determination for APOGEE stars with Bayesian method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jianling; Shi, Jianrong; Pan, Kaike; Chen, Bingqiu; Zhao, Yongheng; Wicker, James

    2016-08-01

    Using a Bayesian technology, we derived distances and extinctions for over 100 000 red giant stars observed by the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) survey by taking into account spectroscopic constraints from the APOGEE stellar parameters and photometric constraints from Two Micron All-Sky Survey, as well as a prior knowledge on the Milky Way. Derived distances are compared with those from four other independent methods, the Hipparcos parallaxes, star clusters, APOGEE red clump stars, and asteroseismic distances from APOKASC and Strömgren survey for Asteroseismology and Galactic Archaeology catalogues. These comparisons covers four orders of magnitude in the distance scale from 0.02 to 20 kpc. The results show that our distances agree very well with those from other methods: the mean relative difference between our Bayesian distances and those derived from other methods ranges from -4.2 per cent to +3.6 per cent, and the dispersion ranges from 15 per cent to 25 per cent. The extinctions towards all stars are also derived and compared with those from several other independent methods: the Rayleigh-Jeans Colour Excess (RJCE) method, Gonzalez's 2D extinction map, as well as 3D extinction maps and models. The comparisons reveal that, overall, estimated extinctions agree very well, but RJCE tends to overestimate extinctions for cool stars and objects with low log g.

  16. Mobile DNA can drive lineage extinction in prokaryotic populations.

    PubMed

    Rankin, D J; Bichsel, M; Wagner, A

    2010-11-01

    Natural selection ultimately acts on genes and other DNA sequences. Adaptations that are good for the gene can have adverse effects at higher levels of organization, including the individual or the population. Mobile genetic elements illustrate this principle well, because they can self-replicate within a genome at a cost to their host. As they are costly and can be transmitted horizontally, mobile elements can be seen as genomic parasites. It has been suggested that mobile elements may cause the extinction of their host populations. In organisms with very large populations, such as most bacteria, individual selection is highly effective in purging genomes of deleterious elements, suggesting that extinction is unlikely. Here we investigate the conditions under which mobile DNA can drive bacterial lineages to extinction. We use a range of epidemiological and ecological models to show that harmful mobile DNA can invade, and drive populations to extinction, provided their transmission rate is high and that mobile element-induced mortality is not too high. Population extinction becomes more likely when there are more elements in the population. Even if elements are costly, extinction can still occur because of the combined effect of horizontal gene transfer, a mortality induced by mobile elements. Our study highlights the potential of mobile DNA to be selected at the population level, as well as at the individual level. PMID:20860700

  17. Resurrection of DNA function in vivo from an extinct genome.

    PubMed

    Pask, Andrew J; Behringer, Richard R; Renfree, Marilyn B

    2008-01-01

    There is a burgeoning repository of information available from ancient DNA that can be used to understand how genomes have evolved and to determine the genetic features that defined a particular species. To assess the functional consequences of changes to a genome, a variety of methods are needed to examine extinct DNA function. We isolated a transcriptional enhancer element from the genome of an extinct marsupial, the Tasmanian tiger (Thylacinus cynocephalus or thylacine), obtained from 100 year-old ethanol-fixed tissues from museum collections. We then examined the function of the enhancer in vivo. Using a transgenic approach, it was possible to resurrect DNA function in transgenic mice. The results demonstrate that the thylacine Col2A1 enhancer directed chondrocyte-specific expression in this extinct mammalian species in the same way as its orthologue does in mice. While other studies have examined extinct coding DNA function in vitro, this is the first example of the restoration of extinct non-coding DNA and examination of its function in vivo. Our method using transgenesis can be used to explore the function of regulatory and protein-coding sequences obtained from any extinct species in an in vivo model system, providing important insights into gene evolution and diversity. PMID:18493600

  18. Resurrection of DNA Function In Vivo from an Extinct Genome

    PubMed Central

    Pask, Andrew J.; Behringer, Richard R.; Renfree, Marilyn B.

    2008-01-01

    There is a burgeoning repository of information available from ancient DNA that can be used to understand how genomes have evolved and to determine the genetic features that defined a particular species. To assess the functional consequences of changes to a genome, a variety of methods are needed to examine extinct DNA function. We isolated a transcriptional enhancer element from the genome of an extinct marsupial, the Tasmanian tiger (Thylacinus cynocephalus or thylacine), obtained from 100 year-old ethanol-fixed tissues from museum collections. We then examined the function of the enhancer in vivo. Using a transgenic approach, it was possible to resurrect DNA function in transgenic mice. The results demonstrate that the thylacine Col2A1 enhancer directed chondrocyte-specific expression in this extinct mammalian species in the same way as its orthologue does in mice. While other studies have examined extinct coding DNA function in vitro, this is the first example of the restoration of extinct non-coding DNA and examination of its function in vivo. Our method using transgenesis can be used to explore the function of regulatory and protein-coding sequences obtained from any extinct species in an in vivo model system, providing important insights into gene evolution and diversity. PMID:18493600

  19. Late Pleistocene glacial chronology and paleoclimate of Big Cottonwood Canyon, Wasatch Range, Utah.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quirk, B.; Moore, J. R.; Laabs, B. J. C.; Caffee, M. W.; Plummer, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    Development of high-resolution glacial chronologies and paleoclimate modeling play a critical role in understanding modern climate variability. The glacial chronology of Big Cottonwood Canyon, Wasatch Range, Utah is poorly understood, and has not been assessed since the early 1900's. We used a variety of modern techniques to establish new understanding of Late Pleistocene glaciation in Big Cottonwood and other Wasatch Range canyons. An absolute chronology was established through the use of cosmogenic nuclide (beryllium-10) exposure age dating; we processed seventeen samples from moraine boulders, erratics, and striated bedrock throughout Big Cottonwood Canyon. Remote mapping of glacial landforms was completed using 2-meter LiDAR digital elevation models, and all identified landforms later verified and mapped in the field. We then used a coupled energy-mass-balance and ice-flow model to 1. infer ice extents in Big Cottonwood Canyon, incorporating neighboring canyons with well constrained maxima; and 2. explore paleoclimate conditions during the Late Pleistocene necessary to reproduce these ice extents. Results reveal new information regarding the influence of Pleistocene Lake Bonneville on climate and landscape evolution in the Wasatch Range during and following the Last Glacial Maximum.

  20. Spatial variability in growth-increment chronologies of long-lived freshwater mussels: Implications for climate impacts and reconstructions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Black, Bryan A.; Dunham, Jason B.; Blundon, Brett W.; Raggon, Mark F.; Zima, Daniela

    2010-01-01

    Estimates of historical variability in river ecosystems are often lacking, but long-lived freshwater mussels could provide unique opportunities to understand past conditions in these environments. We applied dendrochronology techniques to quantify historical variability in growth-increment widths in valves (shells) of western pearlshell freshwater mussels (Margaritifera falcata). A total of 3 growth-increment chronologies, spanning 19 to 26 y in length, were developed. Growth was highly synchronous among individuals within each site, and to a lesser extent, chronologies were synchronous among sites. All 3 chronologies negatively related to instrumental records of stream discharge, while correlations with measures of water temperature were consistently positive but weaker. A reconstruction of stream discharge was performed using linear regressions based on a mussel growth chronology and the regional Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Models based on mussel growth and PDSI yielded similar coefficients of prediction (R2Pred) of 0.73 and 0.77, respectively, for predicting out-ofsample observations. From an ecological perspective, we found that mussel chronologies provided a rich source of information for understanding climate impacts. Responses of mussels to changes in climate and stream ecosystems can be very site- and process-specific, underscoring the complex nature of biotic responses to climate change and the need to understand both regional and local processes in projecting climate impacts on freshwater species.

  1. Habitat destruction and the extinction debt revisited

    SciTech Connect

    Loehle, C.

    1996-02-01

    A very important analysis of the problem of habitat destruction concluded that such destruction may lead to an extinction debt, which is the irreversible loss of species following a prolonged transient or delay. An error in interpretation of this model led the authors to apply the results to all types of habitat destruction, but in fact the model applies only to an across-the-board decrease in fecundity, not to disturbances. For repeated, spatially random disturbance, a different model applies. For habitat destruction on regional scales (reduction in ecosystem area without disturbance in remnant areas), one must, in contrast, apply species-area relations based on the distribution of different habitat types (e.g., elevational and rainfall gradients, physiographic and edaphic variability). The error in interpretation of the basic model is presented, followed by clarification of model usage and development of a new model that applies to disturbance events.

  2. Chronology of Postglacial Eruptive Activity and Calculation of Eruption Probabilities for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nathenson, Manuel; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Champion, Duane E.; Lowenstern, Jacob B.

    2007-01-01

    Medicine Lake volcano has had 4 eruptive episodes in its postglacial history (since 13,000 years ago) comprising 16 eruptions. Time intervals between events within the episodes are relatively short, whereas time intervals between the episodes are much longer. An updated radiocarbon chronology for these eruptions is presented that uses paleomagnetic data to constrain the choice of calibrated ages. This chronology is used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to model the data for time intervals between eruptions. The mixed exponential distribution is the best match to the data and provides estimates for the conditional probability of a future eruption given the time since the last eruption. The probability of an eruption at Medicine Lake volcano in the next year from today is 0.00028.

  3. The mineralogical, chemical, and chronological characteristics of the crystalline Apollo 16 impact melt rocks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reimold, W. U.; Reimold, J. N.

    1984-01-01

    A comparative review of mineralogical, chemical, and chronological data on crystalline Apollo 16 impact melt rocks is presented. The use of such data to identify distinct impact melt complex is discussed, and 22 distinct impact melt bodies are identified. The recently detected group of feldspathic microporphyritic (FM) melt rocks was tested for chemical and isotopic homogeneity; instrumental neutron activation analysis and new Rb-Sr isotopic whole rock data indicate that FMs were probably not derived from a single impact melt sheet, but might be representative of the Descartes basement. Stratigraphical and chronological concepts for the geological development of the landing site are discussed, and a model is presented for the formation of the Cayley Plains and the Descartes formation.

  4. Molecular biomarkers for chronological age in animal ecology.

    PubMed

    Jarman, Simon N; Polanowski, Andrea M; Faux, Cassandra E; Robbins, Jooke; De Paoli-Iseppi, Ricardo; Bravington, Mark; Deagle, Bruce E

    2015-10-01

    The chronological age of an individual animal predicts many of its biological characteristics, and these in turn influence population-level ecological processes. Animal age information can therefore be valuable in ecological research, but many species have no external features that allow age to be reliably determined. Molecular age biomarkers provide a potential solution to this problem. Research in this area of molecular ecology has so far focused on a limited range of age biomarkers. The most commonly tested molecular age biomarker is change in average telomere length, which predicts age well in a small number of species and tissues, but performs poorly in many other situations. Epigenetic regulation of gene expression has recently been shown to cause age-related modifications to DNA and to cause changes in abundance of several RNA types throughout animal lifespans. Age biomarkers based on these epigenetic changes, and other new DNA-based assays, have already been applied to model organisms, humans and a limited number of wild animals. There is clear potential to apply these marker types more widely in ecological studies. For many species, these new approaches will produce age estimates where this was previously impractical. They will also enable age information to be gathered in cross-sectional studies and expand the range of demographic characteristics that can be quantified with molecular methods. We describe the range of molecular age biomarkers that have been investigated to date and suggest approaches for developing the newer marker types as age assays in nonmodel animal species. PMID:26308242

  5. Orbital debris and near-Earth environmental management: A chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Portree, David S. F.; Loftus, Joseph P., Jr.

    1993-01-01

    This chronology covers the 32-year history of orbital debris and near-Earth environmental concerns. It tracks near-Earth environmental hazard creation, research, observation, experimentation, management, mitigation, protection, and policy-making, with emphasis on the orbital debris problem. Included are the Project West Ford experiments; Soviet ASAT tests and U.S. Delta upper stage explosions; the Ariane V16 explosion, U.N. treaties pertinent to near-Earth environmental problems, the PARCS tests; space nuclear power issues, the SPS/orbital debris link; Space Shuttle and space station orbital debris issues; the Solwind ASAT test; milestones in theory and modeling the Cosmos 954, Salyut 7, and Skylab reentries; the orbital debris/meteoroid research link; detection system development; orbital debris shielding development; popular culture and orbital debris; Solar Max results; LDEF results; orbital debris issues peculiar to geosynchronous orbit, including reboost policies and the stable plane; seminal papers, reports, and studies; the increasing effects of space activities on astronomy; and growing international awareness of the near-Earth environment.

  6. Dating the End of the Greek Bronze Age: A Robust Radiocarbon-Based Chronology from Assiros Toumba

    PubMed Central

    Wardle, Kenneth; Higham, Thomas; Kromer, Bernd

    2014-01-01

    Over 60 recent analyses of animal bones, plant remains, and building timbers from Assiros in northern Greece form an unique series from the 14th to the 10th century BC. With the exception of Thera, the number of 14C determinations from other Late Bronze Age sites in Greece has been small and their contribution to chronologies minimal. The absolute dates determined for Assiros through Bayesian modelling are both consistent and unexpected, since they are systematically earlier than the conventional chronologies of southern Greece by between 70 and 100 years. They have not been skewed by reference to assumed historical dates used as priors. They support high rather than low Iron Age chronologies from Spain to Israel where the merits of each are fiercely debated but remain unresolved. PMID:25222862

  7. Dating the end of the Greek Bronze Age: a robust radiocarbon-based chronology from Assiros Toumba.

    PubMed

    Wardle, Kenneth; Higham, Thomas; Kromer, Bernd

    2014-01-01

    Over 60 recent analyses of animal bones, plant remains, and building timbers from Assiros in northern Greece form an unique series from the 14th to the 10th century BC. With the exception of Thera, the number of 14C determinations from other Late Bronze Age sites in Greece has been small and their contribution to chronologies minimal. The absolute dates determined for Assiros through Bayesian modelling are both consistent and unexpected, since they are systematically earlier than the conventional chronologies of southern Greece by between 70 and 100 years. They have not been skewed by reference to assumed historical dates used as priors. They support high rather than low Iron Age chronologies from Spain to Israel where the merits of each are fiercely debated but remain unresolved. PMID:25222862

  8. Zircon U-Pb geochronology links the end-Triassic extinction with the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province.

    PubMed

    Blackburn, Terrence J; Olsen, Paul E; Bowring, Samuel A; McLean, Noah M; Kent, Dennis V; Puffer, John; McHone, Greg; Rasbury, E Troy; Et-Touhami, Mohammed

    2013-05-24

    The end-Triassic extinction is characterized by major losses in both terrestrial and marine diversity, setting the stage for dinosaurs to dominate Earth for the next 136 million years. Despite the approximate coincidence between this extinction and flood basalt volcanism, existing geochronologic dates have insufficient resolution to confirm eruptive rates required to induce major climate perturbations. Here, we present new zircon uranium-lead (U-Pb) geochronologic constraints on the age and duration of flood basalt volcanism within the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province. This chronology demonstrates synchroneity between the earliest volcanism and extinction, tests and corroborates the existing astrochronologic time scale, and shows that the release of magma and associated atmospheric flux occurred in four pulses over about 600,000 years, indicating expansive volcanism even as the biologic recovery was under way. PMID:23519213

  9. Extinction under a Behavioral Microscope: Isolating the Sources of Decline in Operant Response Rate

    PubMed Central

    Cheung, Timothy H C; Neisewander, Janet L; Sanabria, Federico

    2012-01-01

    Extinction performance is often used to assess underlying psychological processes without the interference of reinforcement. For example, in the extinction/reinstatement paradigm, motivation to seek drug is assessed by measuring responding elicited by drug-associated cues without drug reinforcement. Nonetheless, extinction performance is governed by several psychological processes that involve motivation, memory, learning, and motoric functions. These processes are confounded when overall response rate is used to measure performance. Based on evidence that operant responding occurs in bouts, this paper proposes an analytic procedure that separates extinction performance into several behavioral components: 1) the baseline bout initiation rate, within-bout response rate, and bout length at the onset of extinction; 2) their rates of decay during extinction; 3) the time between extinction onset and the decline of responding; 4) the asymptotic response rate at the end of extinction; 5) the refractory period after each response. Data that illustrate the goodness of fit of this analytic model are presented. This paper also describes procedures to 1) isolate behavioral components contributing to extinction performance; 2) make inferences about experimental effects on these components. This microscopic behavioral analysis allows the mapping of different psychological processes to distinct behavioral components implicated in extinction performance, which may further our understanding of the psychological effects of neurobiological treatments. PMID:22425782

  10. Climate change and the selective signature of the Late Ordovician mass extinction.

    PubMed

    Finnegan, Seth; Heim, Noel A; Peters, Shanan E; Fischer, Woodward W

    2012-05-01

    Selectivity patterns provide insights into the causes of ancient extinction events. The Late Ordovician mass extinction was related to Gondwanan glaciation; however, it is still unclear whether elevated extinction rates were attributable to record failure, habitat loss, or climatic cooling. We examined Middle Ordovician-Early Silurian North American fossil occurrences within a spatiotemporally explicit stratigraphic framework that allowed us to quantify rock record effects on a per-taxon basis and assay the interplay of macrostratigraphic and macroecological variables in determining extinction risk. Genera that had large proportions of their observed geographic ranges affected by stratigraphic truncation or environmental shifts at the end of the Katian stage were particularly hard hit. The duration of the subsequent sampling gaps had little effect on extinction risk, suggesting that this extinction pulse cannot be entirely attributed to rock record failure; rather, it was caused, in part, by habitat loss. Extinction risk at this time was also strongly influenced by the maximum paleolatitude at which a genus had previously been sampled, a macroecological trait linked to thermal tolerance. A model trained on the relationship between 16 explanatory variables and extinction patterns during the early Katian interval substantially underestimates the extinction of exclusively tropical taxa during the late Katian interval. These results indicate that glacioeustatic sea-level fall and tropical ocean cooling played important roles in the first pulse of the Late Ordovician mass extinction in Laurentia. PMID:22511717

  11. Climate change and the selective signature of the Late Ordovician mass extinction

    PubMed Central

    Finnegan, Seth; Heim, Noel A.; Peters, Shanan E.; Fischer, Woodward W.

    2012-01-01

    Selectivity patterns provide insights into the causes of ancient extinction events. The Late Ordovician mass extinction was related to Gondwanan glaciation; however, it is still unclear whether elevated extinction rates were attributable to record failure, habitat loss, or climatic cooling. We examined Middle Ordovician-Early Silurian North American fossil occurrences within a spatiotemporally explicit stratigraphic framework that allowed us to quantify rock record effects on a per-taxon basis and assay the interplay of macrostratigraphic and macroecological variables in determining extinction risk. Genera that had large proportions of their observed geographic ranges affected by stratigraphic truncation or environmental shifts at the end of the Katian stage were particularly hard hit. The duration of the subsequent sampling gaps had little effect on extinction risk, suggesting that this extinction pulse cannot be entirely attributed to rock record failure; rather, it was caused, in part, by habitat loss. Extinction risk at this time was also strongly influenced by the maximum paleolatitude at which a genus had previously been sampled, a macroecological trait linked to thermal tolerance. A model trained on the relationship between 16 explanatory variables and extinction patterns during the early Katian interval substantially underestimates the extinction of exclusively tropical taxa during the late Katian interval. These results indicate that glacioeustatic sea-level fall and tropical ocean cooling played important roles in the first pulse of the Late Ordovician mass extinction in Laurentia. PMID:22511717

  12. Climate change and the selective signature of the Late Ordovician mass extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finnegan, Seth; Heim, Noel A.; Peters, Shanan E.; Fischer, Woodward W.

    2012-05-01

    Selectivity patterns provide insights into the causes of ancient extinction events. The Late Ordovician mass extinction was related to Gondwanan glaciation; however, it is still unclear whether elevated extinction rates were attributable to record failure, habitat loss, or climatic cooling. We examined Middle Ordovician-Early Silurian North American fossil occurrences within a spatiotemporally explicit stratigraphic framework that allowed us to quantify rock record effects on a per-taxon basis and assay the interplay of macrostratigraphic and macroecological variables in determining extinction risk. Genera that had large proportions of their observed geographic ranges affected by stratigraphic truncation or environmental shifts at the end of the Katian stage were particularly hard hit. The duration of the subsequent sampling gaps had little effect on extinction risk, suggesting that this extinction pulse cannot be entirely attributed to rock record failure; rather, it was caused, in part, by habitat loss. Extinction risk at this time was also strongly influenced by the maximum paleolatitude at which a genus had previously been sampled, a macroecological trait linked to thermal tolerance. A model trained on the relationship between 16 explanatory variables and extinction patterns during the early Katian interval substantially underestimates the extinction of exclusively tropical taxa during the late Katian interval. These results indicate that glacioeustatic sea-level fall and tropical ocean cooling played important roles in the first pulse of the Late Ordovician mass extinction in Laurentia.

  13. Stellar ultraviolet colors and interstellar extinction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peytremann, E.; Davis, R. J.

    1972-01-01

    A sample of celescope results is studied. Most of the sample stars belong to the Orion and Vela regions. Stars with visual excess E(B-V) less than 0.05 are selected in order to derive relationships of intrinsic color index versus spectral type. The resulting intrinsic color-color relations are compared with existing blanketed and unblanketed model calculations. Finally, the preceding intrinsic relations are utilized to derive some results on interstellar extinction. Owing to the rather large scatter in the celescope data, the Vela stars give the more significant results because their visible excess E(B-V) is, in general, larger than that for the Orion stars.

  14. The currency and tempo of extinction.

    PubMed

    Regan, H M; Lupia, R; Drinnan, A N; Burgman, M A

    2001-01-01

    This study examines estimates of extinction rates for the current purported biotic crisis and from the fossil record. Studies that compare current and geological extinctions sometimes use metrics that confound different sources of error and reflect different features of extinction processes. The per taxon extinction rate is a standard measure in paleontology that avoids some of the pitfalls of alternative approaches. Extinction rates reported in the conservation literature are rarely accompanied by measures of uncertainty, despite many elements of the calculations being subject to considerable error. We quantify some of the most important sources of uncertainty and carry them through the arithmetic of extinction rate calculations using fuzzy numbers. The results emphasize that estimates of current and future rates rely heavily on assumptions about the tempo of extinction and on extrapolations among taxa. Available data are unlikely to be useful in measuring magnitudes or trends in current extinction rates. PMID:18707231

  15. Chronology and ancient feeding ecology of two upper Pleistocene megamammals from the Brazilian Intertropical Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Melo França, Lucas; Trindade Dantas, Mário André; Bocchiglieri, Adriana; Cherckinsky, Alexander; de Souza Ribeiro, Adauto; Bocherens, Hervé

    2014-09-01

    In Brazilian Intertropical Region (BIR) fossil remains of the giant ground sloth Eremotherium laurillardi (Lund, 1842) and of the proboscidean Notiomastodon platensis (Ameghino, 1888) are the most abundant among megaherbivores. However, the paleoecology of both species needs to be better understood to enlighten why these species disappear in the end of the Pleistocene, an issue that is still debated. During the last decades, the carbon and oxygen stable isotopes have been increasingly being used to obtain paleoecological information about extinct animals, although this information is in most cases dissociated from chronological data. Thus, the main objective of this study is to contribute to the knowledge about feeding ecology and chronology of E. laurillardi and N. platensis within BIR. For each fossil sample we performed stable isotopes analyses (δ13C/δ18O) and radiocarbon dating (14C with AMS). The results showed that N. platensis occurred between 12,125 and 19,594 cal yr BP and exhibited a grazer diet (δ13C = -1.1‰-1.3‰), while E. laurillardi lived between 11,084 and 27,690 cal yr BP, with a mixed feeder diet (C3/C4 plants; values ratio δ13C = -7.7‰ to -3.3‰). The δ18O values of N. platensis ranged between 2.20‰ and 3.60‰, while the values of E. laurillardi ranged between -3.10‰ and -1.10‰. Neither species did exhibit differences in its diet through time, which suggests that the vegetational composition of this locality did not vary in the late Pleistocene. Both species were living in an open environment, rich in herbaceous plants (C4 plants) and with tree and shrub with disjoint distribution, maybe similar to some parts of recent Caatinga, where they have partitioned the spatial and feeding niches.

  16. Extinction, Reacquisition, and Rapid Forgetting of Eyeblink Conditioning in Developing Rats

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Kevin L.; Freeman, John H.

    2014-01-01

    Eyeblink conditioning is a well-established model for studying the developmental neurobiology of associative learning and memory. However, age differences in extinction and subsequent reacquisition have yet to be studied using this model. The present study examined extinction and reacquisition of eyeblink conditioning in developing rats. In…

  17. Extragalactic interstellar extinction curves: Indicators of local physical conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Cecchi-Pestellini, Cesare; Viti, Serena; Williams, David A. E-mail: sv@star.ucl.ac.uk

    2014-06-20

    Normalized interstellar extinction curves (ISECs) in the Milky Way and other galaxies show a variety of shapes. This variety is attributed to differences along different sight lines in the abundances of the several dust and gas components contributing to extinction. In this paper we propose that these abundance differences are not arbitrary but are a specific consequence of the physical conditions on those sight lines. If this proposal is correct, then it implies that ISECs contain information about physical conditions in the regions generating extinction. This may be particularly important for high redshift galaxies where information on the conditions may be difficult to obtain. We adopt a model of extinction carriers in which the solid and gaseous components are not immutable but respond time-dependently to the local physics. We validate this model by fitting extinction curves measured on sight lines in the Magellanic Clouds and obtained for the gamma-ray burst afterglow GRB 080605. We present results for this model as follows: (1) we show that computed ISECs are controlled by a small number of physical parameters, (2) we demonstrate the sensitivity of computed ISECs to these parameters, (3) we compute as examples ISECs for particular galaxy types, and (4) we note that different galaxy types have different shapes of ISEC.

  18. Constructing a precise and robust chronology for the varved sediment record of Lake Czechowskie (Poland)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ott, Florian; Brauer, Achim; Słowiński, Michał; Wulf, Sabine; Putyrskaya, Victoria; Blaszkiewicz, Miroslaw

    2014-05-01

    Annually laminated (varved) sediment records are essential for detailed investigations of past climate and environmental changes as they function as a natural memory far beyond instrumental datasets. However, reliable reconstructions of past changes need a robust chronology. In order to determine Holocene inter-annual and decadal-scale variability and to establish a precise time scale we investigated varved sediments of Lake Czechowskie (53°52' N/ 18°14' E, 108 m a.s.l.), northern Poland. During two coring campaigns in 2009 and 2012 we recovered several long and short cores with the longest core reaching 14.25 m. Here we present a multiple dating approach for the Lake Czechowskie sediments. The chronology comprises varve counting for the Holocene time period and AMS 14C dating (19 plant macro remains and two bulk samples) for the entire sediment record reaching back to 14.0 cal ka BP. Varve counting between 14C dated samples and Bayesian age modeling helped to identify and omit samples either too old or too young caused by redeposition or too low C contents, respectively. The good agreement between varve chronology and modeled age based on radiocarbon dates proves the robust age control for the sediment profile. Additionally, independent chronological anchor points derived from (i) 137Cs activity concentration measurements for the last ca. 50 years and (ii) newly detected tephra layers of the Askja AD 1875 eruption and the Laacher See Tephra (12880 varve yrs BP) are used as precise dated isochrones. These volcanic ash layers can be further used as tie points to synchronize and correlate different lake records and to investigate local and regional differences to climatic and environmental changes over a wider geographic region on a common age scale. This study is a contribution to the Virtual Institute of Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analysis -ICLEA- of the Helmholtz Association and the Helmholtz Association climate initiative REKLIM topic 8 "Rapid

  19. The Geochemistry of Mass Extinction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kump, L. R.

    2003-12-01

    The course of biological evolution is inextricably linked to that of the environment through an intricate network of feedbacks that span all scales of space and time. Disruptions to the environment have biological consequences, and vice versa. Fossils provide the prima facie evidence for biotic disruptions: catastrophic losses of global biodiversity at various times in the Phanerozoic. However, the forensic evidence for the causes and environmental consequences of these mass extinctions resides primarily in the geochemical composition of sedimentary rocks deposited during the extinction intervals. Thus, advancement in our understanding of mass extinctions requires detailed knowledge obtained from both paleontological and geochemical records.This chapter reviews the state of knowledge concerning the geochemistry of the "big five" extinctions of the Phanerozoic (e.g., Sepkoski, 1993): the Late Ordovician (Hirnantian; 440 Ma), the Late Devonian (an extended or multiple event with its apex at the Frasnian-Famennian (F-F) boundary; 367 Ma), the Permian-Triassic (P-Tr; 251 Ma), the Triassic-Jurassic (Tr-J; 200 Ma), and the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T; 65 Ma). The focus on the big five is a matter of convenience, as there is a continuum in extinction rates from "background" to "mass extinction." Although much of the literature on extinctions centers on the causes and extents of biodiversity loss, in recent years paleontologists have begun to focus on recoveries (see, e.g., Hart, 1996; Kirchner and Weil, 2000; Erwin, 2001 and references therein).To the extent that the duration of the recovery interval may reflect a slow relaxation of the environment from perturbation, analysis of the geochemical record of recovery is an integral part of this effort. In interpreting the geochemical and biological records of recovery, we need to maintain a clear distinction among the characteristics of the global biota: their biodiversity (affected by differences in origination and extinction

  20. Photoaging and chronological aging profile: Understanding oxidation of the skin.

    PubMed

    Peres, P S; Terra, V A; Guarnier, F A; Cecchini, R; Cecchini, A L

    2011-05-01

    The impact of chronological aging and photoaging on the skin is particularly concerning, especially when oxidative stress is involved. This article provides evidence of quantitative and qualitative differences in the oxidative stress generated by chronological aging and photoaging of the skin in HRS/J hairless mice. Analysis of the results revealed an increase in lipid peroxides as the skin gets older and in photoaged skin (10.086 ± 0.70 η MDA/mg and 14.303 ± 1.81 η MDA/mg protein, respectively), although protein oxidation was only verified in chronological aged skin (15.449 ± 0.99 η protein/mg protein). The difference between both skin types is the decay in the capacity of lipid membrane turnover revealed by the dislocation of older skin to the left in the chemiluminescence curve. Imbalance between antioxidant and oxidation processes was verified by the decrease in total antioxidant capacity of chronological and photoaged skins. Although superoxide dismutase remained unchanged, catalase increased in the 18 and 48-week-old skin groups and decreased in irradiated mice, demonstrating that neither enzyme is a good parameter to determine oxidative stress. The differences observed between chronological and photoaging skin represent a potential new approach to understanding the phenomenon of skin aging and a new target for therapeutic intervention. PMID:21356598

  1. No evidence for blocking the return of fear by disrupting reconsolidation prior to extinction learning.

    PubMed

    Klucken, Tim; Kruse, Onno; Schweckendiek, Jan; Kuepper, Yvonne; Mueller, Erik M; Hennig, Juergen; Stark, Rudolf

    2016-06-01

    Fear extinction is a central model for the treatment of anxiety disorders. Initial research has reported that the single presentation of a conditioned stimulus prior to extinction learning can permanently block the return of fear. However, only few studies have explored this issue and could not always replicate the findings. The present study examined human fear extinction using a four-day design. On the first day, two neutral stimuli were paired with electrical stimulation (UCS), while a third stimulus (CS-) was not. Twenty-four hours later, one conditioned stimulus (CS+rem) and the CS- were reminded once, 10 min before extinction learning, while the other conditioned stimulus (CS+non-rem) was not presented prior to extinction learning. All stimuli were presented during extinction learning and during two re-extinction sessions (24 h and 6-months after extinction learning) without reinforcement. Blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) responses and skin conductance responses (SCRs) to both CS+ and the CS- were explored during acquisition, extinction, and in both re-extinction sessions. Regarding SCRs, the results showed that a single presentation of a conditioned stimulus did not block the return of fear during re-extinction: Fear recovery during re-extinction (24 h and 6-months after extinction learning) was observed for both CS+ compared with the CS- with no difference between CS+rem and CS+non-rem. Regarding BOLD-responses, no significant differences between CS+rem and CS+non-rem were found in region of interest (ROI)-analyses (amygdala, ventromedial prefrontal cortex) during extinction learning and both re-extinction sessions. Whole-brain analyses showed increased BOLD-responses to the CS+non-rem as compared to the CS+rem in several regions (e.g., middle frontal gyrus) during extinction learning and re-extinction (24 h after extinction learning). The present findings suggest that the effect of preventing the return of fear by disrupting reconsolidation seems to

  2. Direct and indirect effects of biological factors on extinction risk in fossil bivalves.

    PubMed

    Harnik, Paul G

    2011-08-16

    Biological factors, such as abundance and body size, may contribute directly to extinction risk and indirectly through their influence on other biological characteristics, such as geographic range size. Paleontological data can be used to explicitly test many of these hypothesized relationships, and general patterns revealed through analysis of the fossil record can help refine predictive models of extinction risk developed for extant species. Here, I use structural equation modeling to tease apart the contributions of three canonical predictors of extinction--abundance, body size, and geographic range size--to the duration of bivalve species in the early Cenozoic marine fossil record of the eastern United States. I find that geographic range size has a strong direct effect on extinction risk and that an apparent direct effect of abundance can be explained entirely by its covariation with geographic range. The influence of geographic range on extinction risk is manifest across three ecologically disparate bivalve clades. Body size also has strong direct effects on extinction risk but operates in opposing directions in different clades, and thus, it seems to be decoupled from extinction risk in bivalves as a whole. Although abundance does not directly predict extinction risk, I reveal weak indirect effects of both abundance and body size through their positive influence on geographic range size. Multivariate models that account for the pervasive covariation between biological factors and extinction are necessary for assessing causality in evolutionary processes and making informed predictions in applied conservation efforts. PMID:21808004

  3. Extinction in Phylogenetics and Biogeography: From Timetrees to Patterns of Biotic Assemblage.

    PubMed

    Sanmartín, Isabel; Meseguer, Andrea S

    2016-01-01

    Global climate change and its impact on biodiversity levels have made extinction a relevant topic in biological research. Yet, until recently, extinction has received less attention in macroevolutionary studies than speciation; the reason is the difficulty to infer an event that actually eliminates rather than creates new taxa. For example, in biogeography, extinction has often been seen as noise, introducing homoplasy in biogeographic relationships, rather than a pattern-generating process. The molecular revolution and the possibility to integrate time into phylogenetic reconstructions have allowed studying extinction under different perspectives. Here, we review phylogenetic (temporal) and biogeographic (spatial) approaches to the inference of extinction and the challenges this process poses for reconstructing evolutionary history. Specifically, we focus on the problem of discriminating between alternative high extinction scenarios using time trees with only extant taxa, and on the confounding effect introduced by asymmetric spatial extinction - different rates of extinction across areas - in biogeographic inference. Finally, we identify the most promising avenues of research in both fields, which include the integration of additional sources of evidence such as the fossil record or environmental information in birth-death models and biogeographic reconstructions, the development of new models that tie extinction rates to phenotypic or environmental variation, or the implementation within a Bayesian framework of parametric non-stationary biogeographic models. PMID:27047538

  4. Extinction in Phylogenetics and Biogeography: From Timetrees to Patterns of Biotic Assemblage

    PubMed Central

    Meseguer, Andrea S.

    2016-01-01

    Global climate change and its impact on biodiversity levels have made extinction a relevant topic in biological research. Yet, until recently, extinction has received less attention in macroevolutionary studies than speciation; the reason is the difficulty to infer an event that actually eliminates rather than creates new taxa. For example, in biogeography, extinction has often been seen as noise, introducing homoplasy in biogeographic relationships, rather than a pattern-generating process. The molecular revolution and the possibility to integrate time into phylogenetic reconstructions have allowed studying extinction under different perspectives. Here, we review phylogenetic (temporal) and biogeographic (spatial) approaches to the inference of extinction and the challenges this process poses for reconstructing evolutionary history. Specifically, we focus on the problem of discriminating between alternative high extinction scenarios using time trees with only extant taxa, and on the confounding effect introduced by asymmetric spatial extinction – different rates of extinction across areas – in biogeographic inference. Finally, we identify the most promising avenues of research in both fields, which include the integration of additional sources of evidence such as the fossil record or environmental information in birth–death models and biogeographic reconstructions, the development of new models that tie extinction rates to phenotypic or environmental variation, or the implementation within a Bayesian framework of parametric non-stationary biogeographic models. PMID:27047538

  5. Further Evidence of Auditory Extinction in Aphasia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marshall, Rebecca Shisler; Basilakos, Alexandra; Love-Myers, Kim

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Preliminary research ( Shisler, 2005) suggests that auditory extinction in individuals with aphasia (IWA) may be connected to binding and attention. In this study, the authors expanded on previous findings on auditory extinction to determine the source of extinction deficits in IWA. Method: Seventeen IWA (M[subscript age] = 53.19 years)…

  6. On the Assimilation of Tree-Ring-Width Chronologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acevedo, Walter; Reich, Sebastian; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2015-04-01

    Data assimilation (DA) of climate proxy records is currently acknowledged as a promising approach to the paleoclimate reconstruction problem, with the potential to bring physical consistency to reconstructed fields. Previous paleo-DA studies have typically assumed a linear relationship between climate forcing and the resulting proxy data, whereas there exist growing evidence of complex, potentially non-linear, proxy formation processes. Accordingly, it appears natural to simulate the proxy response to climate in a more realistic fashion, by way of proxy-specific forward models. Following this train of thought, we investigate the assimilation of the most traditional climate proxy type, Tree-Ring-Width (TRW) chronologies, using the process-based tree-ring growth forward model Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite (VSL) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques. Used as observation operator, VSL's formulation implies three compounding, challenging features: (i) time averaging, (ii) "switching recording" of 2 variables and (iii) bounded response windows leading to "thresholded response". DA experiments involving VSL-based pseudo-TRW observations are performed first for a chaotic 2-scale dynamical system, used as a cartoon of the atmosphere-land system, and then for an atmospheric general circulation model of intermediate complexity. Our results reveal that VSL's nonlinearities may considerable deteriorate the performance of EnKF for Time-Averaged (TA) estimation, as compared to the utilization of a TA linear observation operator. Moreover, we show that this assimilation skill loss can be considerably reduced by embedding VSL's formulation into fuzzy logic theory, which fosters new interpretations of tree-ring growth limitation processes.

  7. Tail probabilities of extinction time in a large number of experimental populations.

    PubMed

    Drake, John M

    2014-05-01

    Determining the distribution of population extinction times is a fundamental problem in theoretical population biology. In particular, the tail properties, patterns in the probability of long-term persistence, have not been studied. Further, until now there have been no experimental or observational data sets with which to empirically test the "rare event" predictions of the standard stochastic theory of extinction, which holds that extinction times should be exponentially distributed. I performed an experimental study of extinction in a large number of replicate (n = 1076) laboratory populations of the waterflea Daphnia pulicaria. Observed extinction time ranged from 1 to 1239 days. Statistical models supported the hypothesis of a power-law distribution over the exponential distribution and other alternatives. This pattern contradicts the notion that population extinction time has an exponential tail, questioning its ubiquitous use in theoretical ecology. It is also a rare instance of a data set that exhibits power-law scaling under appropriate statistical criteria. PMID:25000743

  8. Climate-driven extinctions shape the phylogenetic structure of temperate tree floras.

    PubMed

    Eiserhardt, Wolf L; Borchsenius, Finn; Plum, Christoffer M; Ordonez, Alejandro; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2015-03-01

    When taxa go extinct, unique evolutionary history is lost. If extinction is selective, and the intrinsic vulnerabilities of taxa show phylogenetic signal, more evolutionary history may be lost than expected under random extinction. Under what conditions this occurs is insufficiently known. We show that late Cenozoic climate change induced phylogenetically selective regional extinction of northern temperate trees because of phylogenetic signal in cold tolerance, leading to significantly and substantially larger than random losses of phylogenetic diversity (PD). The surviving floras in regions that experienced stronger extinction are phylogenetically more clustered, indicating that non-random losses of PD are of increasing concern with increasing extinction severity. Using simulations, we show that a simple threshold model of survival given a physiological trait with phylogenetic signal reproduces our findings. Our results send a strong warning that we may expect future assemblages to be phylogenetically and possibly functionally depauperate if anthropogenic climate change affects taxa similarly. PMID:25604755

  9. Chronology of meteorites and the early solar system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krot, Alexander N.; Bizzarro, Martin

    2009-09-01

    Understanding the chronology of the chondritic and differentiated meteorites can potentially important constraints on the accretion and origin of the solar system planets, life-time of our protoplanetary disk and circumstellar disks around solar mass stars, and astrophysical setting of the solar system formation. The special issue of Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta consists of invited and contributed papers presented at the Workshop on The Chronology of Meteorites and the Early Solar System, Kauai, 2007 and is honoring the outstanding contributions of C.J. Allégre, G.W. Lugmair, L.E. Nyquist, D.A. Papanastassiou, and G.J. Wasserburg to our understanding of the chronology of the early Solar System.

  10. Extinction in multiple contexts: Effects on the rate of extinction and the strength of response recovery.

    PubMed

    Bustamante, Javier; Uengoer, Metin; Thorwart, Anna; Lachnit, Harald

    2016-09-01

    In two human predictive-learning experiments, we investigated the effects of extinction in multiple contexts on the rate of extinction and the strength of response recovery. In each experiment, participants initially received acquisition training with a target cue in one context, followed by extinction either in a different context (extinction in a single context) or in three different contexts (extinction in multiple contexts). The results of both experiments showed that conducting extinction in multiple contexts led to higher levels of responding during extinction than did extinction in a single context. Additionally, Experiment 2 showed that extinction in multiple contexts prevented ABC renewal but had no detectable impact on ABA renewal. Our results are discussed within the framework of contemporary learning theories of contextual control and extinction. PMID:26895976

  11. Fatal disease and demographic Allee effect: population persistence and extinction.

    PubMed

    Friedman, Avner; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

    2012-01-01

    If a healthy stable host population at the disease-free equilibrium is subject to the Allee effect, can a small number of infected individuals with a fatal disease cause the host population to go extinct? That is, does the Allee effect matter at high densities? To answer this question, we use a susceptible-infected epidemic model to obtain model parameters that lead to host population persistence (with or without infected individuals) and to host extinction. We prove that the presence of an Allee effect in host demographics matters even at large population densities. We show that a small perturbation to the disease-free equilibrium can eventually lead to host population extinction. In addition, we prove that additional deaths due to a fatal infectious disease effectively increase the Allee threshold of the host population demographics. PMID:22873602

  12. The epigenetic clock and telomere length are independently associated with chronological age and mortality

    PubMed Central

    Marioni, Riccardo E; Harris, Sarah E; Shah, Sonia; McRae, Allan F; von Zglinicki, Thomas; Martin-Ruiz, Carmen; Wray, Naomi R; Visscher, Peter M; Deary, Ian J

    2016-01-01

    Background: Telomere length and DNA methylation have been proposed as biological clock measures that track chronological age. Whether they change in tandem, or contribute independently to the prediction of chronological age, is not known. Methods: We address these points using data from two Scottish cohorts: the Lothian Birth Cohorts of 1921 (LBC1921) and 1936 (LBC1936). Telomere length and epigenetic clock estimates from DNA methylation were measured in 920 LBC1936 participants (ages 70, 73 and 76 years) and in 414 LBC1921 participants (ages 79, 87 and 90 years). Results: The epigenetic clock changed over time at roughly the same rate as chronological age in both cohorts. Telomere length decreased at 48–67 base pairs per year on average. Weak, non-significant correlations were found between epigenetic clock estimates and telomere length. Telomere length explained 6.6% of the variance in age in LBC1921, the epigenetic clock explained 10.0%, and combined they explained 17.3% (all P < 1 × 10−7). Corresponding figures for the LBC1936 cohort were 14.3%, 11.7% and 19.5% (all P < 1 × 10−12). In a combined cohorts analysis, the respective estimates were 2.8%, 28.5% and 29.5%. Also in a combined cohorts analysis, a one standard deviation increase in baseline epigenetic age was linked to a 22% increased mortality risk (P = 2.6 × 10−4) whereas, in the same model, a one standard deviation increase in baseline telomere length was independently linked to an 11% decreased mortality risk (P = 0.06). Conclusions: These results suggest that telomere length and epigenetic clock estimates are independent predictors of chronological age and mortality risk. PMID:27075770

  13. Evaluation of third molar development in the estimation of chronological age.

    PubMed

    Soares, Caio Belém Rodrigues Barros; Figueiroa, José Natal; Dantas, Renata Moura Xavier; Kurita, Lúcio Mitsuo; Pontual, Andréa dos Anjos; Ramos-Perez, Flávia Maria de Moraes; Perez, Danyel Elias da Cruz; Pontual, Maria Luiza dos Anjos

    2015-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the correlation between chronological age and the degree of third molar mineralization by Demirjian's developmental stages (Demirjian et al., 1973) using panoramic radiography. From a total of 11.396 digital panoramic radiographs of patients from three oral radiology private clinics from the northeast region of Brazil, obtained from January to June 2009, 2097 radiographic images from patients aged between 6 and 22 years were selected. The images were analyzed individually by two obsevers using a 21-inch computer screen and Windows Picture and Fax Viewer. Reliability was achieved by intra- and interobserver evaluation, using the Kappa test. Chronological age, calcification stage, gender and third molar were interrelated using a multiple linear regression model, considering age as a response variable. There was reliability with Demirjian et al.'s developmental stage assesment, displaying a significant relationship between mineralization stages and patients' age (P<0.05). There was no significant difference between the average age and the calcification stage taking gender and localization of the third molar into consideration. It is possible to estimate chronological age based on Demirjian's stage of a third molar, regardless of gender and location. PMID:26164359

  14. Reconstructions of Columbia River streamflow from tree-ring chronologies in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Littell, Jeremy; Pederson, Gregory T.; Gray, Stephen T.; Tjoelker, Michael; Hamlet, Alan F.; Woodhouse, Connie A.

    2016-01-01

    We developed Columbia River streamflow reconstructions using a network of existing, new, and updated tree-ring records sensitive to the main climatic factors governing discharge. Reconstruction quality is enhanced by incorporating tree-ring chronologies where high snowpack limits growth, which better represent the contribution of cool-season precipitation to flow than chronologies from trees positively sensitive to hydroclimate alone. The best performing reconstruction (back to 1609 CE) explains 59% of the historical variability and the longest reconstruction (back to 1502 CE) explains 52% of the variability. Droughts similar to the high-intensity, long-duration low flows observed during the 1920s and 1940s are rare, but occurred in the early 1500s and 1630s-1640s. The lowest Columbia flow events appear to be reflected in chronologies both positively and negatively related to streamflow, implying low snowpack and possibly low warm-season precipitation. High flows of magnitudes observed in the instrumental record appear to have been relatively common, and high flows from the 1680s to 1740s exceeded the magnitude and duration of observed wet periods in the late-19th and 20th Century. Comparisons between the Columbia River reconstructions and future projections of streamflow derived from global climate and hydrologic models show the potential for increased hydrologic variability, which could present challenges for managing water in the face of competing demands

  15. Environmental change preceded Caribbean extinction by 2 million years

    PubMed Central

    O'Dea, Aaron; Jackson, Jeremy B. C.; Fortunato, Helena; Smith, J. Travis; D'Croz, Luis; Johnson, Kenneth G.; Todd, Jonathan A.

    2007-01-01

    Paleontologists typically treat major episodes of extinction as single and distinct events in which a major environmental perturbation results in a synchronous evolutionary response. Alternatively, the causes of biotic change may be multifaceted and extinction may lag behind the changes ultimately responsible because of nonlinear ecological dynamics. We examined these alternatives for the major episode of Caribbean extinction 2 million years ago (Ma). Isolation of the Caribbean from the Eastern Pacific by uplift of the Panamanian Isthmus was associated with synchronous changes in Caribbean near shore environments and community composition between 4.25 and 3.45 Ma. Seasonal fluctuations in Caribbean seawater temperature decreased 3-fold, carbonate deposition increased, and there was a striking, albeit patchy, shift in dominance of benthic ecosystems from heterotrophic mollusks to mixotrophic reef corals and calcareous algae. All of these changes correspond well with a simple model of decreased upwelling and collapse in planktonic productivity associated with the final stages of the closure of the isthmian barrier. However, extinction rates of mollusks and corals did not increase until 3–2 Ma and sharply peaked between 2 and 1 Ma, even though extinction overwhelmingly affected taxa commonly associated with high productivity. This time lag suggests that something other than environmental change per se was involved in extinction that does not occur as a single event. Understanding cause and effect will require more taxonomically refined analysis of the changing abundance and distribution patterns of different ecological guilds in the 2 million years leading up to the relatively sudden peak in extinction. PMID:17369359

  16. Environmental change preceded Caribbean extinction by 2 million years.

    PubMed

    O'Dea, Aaron; Jackson, Jeremy B C; Fortunato, Helena; Smith, J Travis; D'Croz, Luis; Johnson, Kenneth G; Todd, Jonathan A

    2007-03-27

    Paleontologists typically treat major episodes of extinction as single and distinct events in which a major environmental perturbation results in a synchronous evolutionary response. Alternatively, the causes of biotic change may be multifaceted and extinction may lag behind the changes ultimately responsible because of nonlinear ecological dynamics. We examined these alternatives for the major episode of Caribbean extinction 2 million years ago (Ma). Isolation of the Caribbean from the Eastern Pacific by uplift of the Panamanian Isthmus was associated with synchronous changes in Caribbean near shore environments and community composition between 4.25 and 3.45 Ma. Seasonal fluctuations in Caribbean seawater temperature decreased 3-fold, carbonate deposition increased, and there was a striking, albeit patchy, shift in dominance of benthic ecosystems from heterotrophic mollusks to mixotrophic reef corals and calcareous algae. All of these changes correspond well with a simple model of decreased upwelling and collapse in planktonic productivity associated with the final stages of the closure of the isthmian barrier. However, extinction rates of mollusks and corals did not increase until 3-2 Ma and sharply peaked between 2 and 1 Ma, even though extinction overwhelmingly affected taxa commonly associated with high productivity. This time lag suggests that something other than environmental change per se was involved in extinction that does not occur as a single event. Understanding cause and effect will require more taxonomically refined analysis of the changing abundance and distribution patterns of different ecological guilds in the 2 million years leading up to the relatively sudden peak in extinction. PMID:17369359

  17. Darwin and the uses of extinction.

    PubMed

    Beer, Gillian

    2009-01-01

    We currently view extinction with dismay and even horror, but Darwin saw extinction as ordinary and as necessary to evolutionary change. Still, the degree to which extinction is fundamental to his theory is rarely discussed. This essay examines Darwin's linking of the idea of "improvement" with that of natural selection and tracks a cluster of reasons for our changed valuation of extinction now. Those reasons demonstrate how scientific information and ideological preferences have reshaped the concept. The essay challenges the reader to assess some current assumptions about extinction and concludes by considering the shift in Darwin's own understanding from the "Origin" to the late "Autobiography". PMID:19824221

  18. Age, origins and extinctions of the avifauna of Macaronesia: a synthesis of phylogenetic and fossil information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Illera, Juan Carlos; Rando, Juan Carlos; Richardson, David S.; Emerson, Brent C.

    2012-09-01

    Understanding the age, origins and extinction of oceanic island biota has captivated the interest of evolutionary biologists since Darwin and Wallace. Because oceanic islands are discrete entities of small geographical size but with considerable habitat diversity, they provide ideal templates within which to study evolutionary processes. The peripheral North Atlantic islands, collectively referred to as Macaronesia, are considered a hot spot of biodiversity due to the fact that they contain a large proportion of endemic taxa (ca 25%). Recent molecular studies are providing insight into the patterns of colonization and radiation within the extant avifauna, while paleontological studies have described many extinct avian species, sometimes identifying the causes and chronology of extinction. The aim of this review is to develop an understanding of the evolutionary and biogeographic history of the macaronesian avifauna, combining information from phylogenetic and paleontological studies. We then compare patterns for Macaronesia with those of other oceanic archipelagos to evaluate to what extent patterns may be generalised across regions. Phylogenetic analyses have confirmed the close relationships between endemic macaronesian avifauna and the closest mainland areas (Europe and Africa), however, in contrast to other archipelagos of a similar age, we show that most extant birds appear to have colonized macaronesian archipelagos relatively recently, within the last four million years, despite some islands being approximately 30 million years old. Fossil records support the idea that higher species richness previously existed, with recent dating on bone collagen of selected extinct species suggesting that their extinction coincided with the arrival of aboriginal people ca 2500 years ago in the Canary Islands, or the arrival of Europeans across all the macaronesian islands in the 14th century. It is plausible that these human mediated extinctions may have selectively acted

  19. Testing for periodicity of extinction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raup, David M.; Sepkoski, J. J., Jr.

    1988-01-01

    The statistical techniques used by Raup and Sepkoski (1984 and 1986) to identify a 26-Myr periodicity in the biological extinction record for the past 250 Myr are reexamined, responding in detail to the criticisms of Stigler and Wagner (1987). It is argued that evaluation of a much larger set of extinction data using a time scale with 51 sampling intervals supports the finding of periodicity. In a reply by Sigler and Wagner, the preference for a 26-Myr period is attributed to a numerical quirk in the Harland et al. (1982) time scale, in which the subinterval boundaries are not linear interpolations between the stage boundaries but have 25-Myr periodicity. It is stressed that the results of the stringent statistical tests imposed do not disprove periodicity but rather indicate that the evidence and analyses presented so far are inadequate.

  20. Mesosiderites: A Chronologic and Petrologic Synthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubin, A. E.; Mittlefehldt, D. W.

    1992-07-01

    Recent petrologic, chemical, and isotopic analyses of mesosiderite clasts and whole rocks allow construction of the evolutionary history of the mesosiderite parent body (MPB) as shown in the figure. I. Initial Melting ~4.56 Ga Ago. Numerous chronologic measurements indicate that initial melting of the MPB occurred shortly after accretion, at about the same time that the eucrites and angrites formed. For example, a zircon grain from a basaltic clast in Vaca Muerta yielded a Pb-Pb age of 4.563 Ga (Ireland and Wlotzka, 1992). The 4.56-Ga event on the MPB is probably responsible for forming the monogenic basaltic clasts that compositionally resemble typical eucrites (Rubin and Mittlefehldt, 1992). II. Crustal Remelting ~4.47 Ga Ago. Internal Sm-Nd isochron ages of 4.47 Ga have been determined for gabbroic pebble 12 from Vaca Muerta and a basaltic clast from Mt. Padbury (Stewart et al., 1991). Pebble 12 is one of many clasts in mesosiderites that are highly depleted in incompatible elements and probably represent remelted crustal rocks (Rubin and Mittlefehldt, 1992). Because variation of Fe/Mn with Fe/Mg in pyroxenes from these clasts follows a trend defined by FeO reduction from a melt (Mittlefehldt, 1990), and because the reducing agents (e.g., P) were likely to have been introduced during metal-silicate mixing, the age of pebble 12 indicates that metal-silicate mixing had to have occurred >=4.47 Ga ago. III. Localized Impact Melting 4.5-3.9 Ga Ago. Localized impact melting and metamorphism were widespread on the eucrite parent body as indicated by many ages that were partially or totally reset <4.56 Ga ago. Impact melt material is common in mesosiderites of all petrologic types, and ages between 4.5-3.9 Ga are preserved. Quench-textured pebble 5 from Vaca Muerta, which is likely to have formed from a localized impact melt of material resembling a cumulate eucrite (Rubin and Jerde, 1987), has an internal isochron age of 4.42 Ga (Stewart et al., 1992). The high

  1. Infralimbic D2 receptors are necessary for fear extinction and extinction-related tone responses

    PubMed Central

    Mueller, Devin; Bravo-Rivera, Christian; Quirk, Gregory J.

    2010-01-01

    Background Fear extinction is dependent on plasticity in the infralimbic prefrontal cortex (IL), an area heavily innervated by midbrain dopaminergic inputs. Dopamine D2 receptors are concentrated in infralimbic output neurons that are involved in the suppression of conditioned fear after extinction. Here we examined the specific role of the D2 receptor in mediating associative learning underlying fear extinction, using the selective D2 antagonist raclopride. Methods Raclopride was administered systemically or infused into IL prior to fear extinction, and extinction retention was tested the following day. Rats were also prepared for single unit recording in IL to assess the effect of raclopride on firing properties. Results We found that systemic injection of raclopride given prior to extinction impaired retrieval of extinction when tested drug free the next day, but also induced catalepsy during extinction training. To determine whether impaired extinction was due to impaired motor function or disruption of extinction consolidation, we infused raclopride directly into IL. Raclopride infused immediately before extinction training did not produce motor deficits, but impaired recall of extinction when tested drug free. Furthermore, in animals that underwent extinction training, systemic raclopride reduced the tone responsiveness of IL neurons in layers 5/6, with no changes in average firing rate. Conclusion We suggest that D2 receptors facilitate extinction by increasing the signal-to-noise of IL neurons that consolidate extinction. PMID:20926066

  2. Optimising Extinction of Conditioned Disgust

    PubMed Central

    Bosman, Renske C.; Borg, Charmaine; de Jong, Peter J.

    2016-01-01

    Maladaptive disgust responses are tenacious and resistant to exposure-based interventions. In a similar vein, laboratory studies have shown that conditioned disgust is relatively insensitive to Conditioned Stimulus (CS)-only extinction procedures. The relatively strong resistance to extinction might be explained by disgust’s adaptive function to motivate avoidance from contamination threats (pathogens) that cannot be readily detected and are invisible to the naked eye. Therefore, the mere visual presentation of unreinforced disgust eliciting stimuli might not be sufficient to correct a previously acquired threat value of the CS+. Following this, the current study tested whether the efficacy of CS-only exposure can be improved by providing additional safety information about the CS+. For the CSs we included two neutral items a pea soup and a sausage roll, whereas for the Unconditioned Stimulus (US) we used one video clip of a woman vomiting and a neutral one about glass blowing. The additional safety information was conveyed by allowing actual contact with the CS+ or by observing an actress eating the food items representing the CS+. When additional safety information was provided via allowing direct contact with the CS+, there was a relatively strong post-extinction increase in participants’ willingness-to-eat the CS+. This beneficial effect was still evident at one-week follow up. Also self-reported disgust was lower at one-week follow up when additional safety information was provided. The current findings help explain why disgust is relatively insensitive to CS-only extinction procedures, and provide helpful starting points to improve interventions that are aimed to reduce distress in disgust-related psychopathology. PMID:26849211

  3. Optimising Extinction of Conditioned Disgust.

    PubMed

    Bosman, Renske C; Borg, Charmaine; de Jong, Peter J

    2016-01-01

    Maladaptive disgust responses are tenacious and resistant to exposure-based interventions. In a similar vein, laboratory studies have shown that conditioned disgust is relatively insensitive to Conditioned Stimulus (CS)-only extinction procedures. The relatively strong resistance to extinction might be explained by disgust's adaptive function to motivate avoidance from contamination threats (pathogens) that cannot be readily detected and are invisible to the naked eye. Therefore, the mere visual presentation of unreinforced disgust eliciting stimuli might not be sufficient to correct a previously acquired threat value of the CS+. Following this, the current study tested whether the efficacy of CS-only exposure can be improved by providing additional safety information about the CS+. For the CSs we included two neutral items a pea soup and a sausage roll, whereas for the Unconditioned Stimulus (US) we used one video clip of a woman vomiting and a neutral one about glass blowing. The additional safety information was conveyed by allowing actual contact with the CS+ or by observing an actress eating the food items representing the CS+. When additional safety information was provided via allowing direct contact with the CS+, there was a relatively strong post-extinction increase in participants' willingness-to-eat the CS+. This beneficial effect was still evident at one-week follow up. Also self-reported disgust was lower at one-week follow up when additional safety information was provided. The current findings help explain why disgust is relatively insensitive to CS-only extinction procedures, and provide helpful starting points to improve interventions that are aimed to reduce distress in disgust-related psychopathology. PMID:26849211

  4. Extinction of metastable stochastic populations.

    PubMed

    Assaf, Michael; Meerson, Baruch

    2010-02-01

    We investigate the phenomenon of extinction of a long-lived self-regulating stochastic population, caused by intrinsic (demographic) noise. Extinction typically occurs via one of two scenarios depending on whether the absorbing state n=0 is a repelling (scenario A) or attracting (scenario B) point of the deterministic rate equation. In scenario A the metastable stochastic population resides in the vicinity of an attracting fixed point next to the repelling point n=0 . In scenario B there is an intermediate repelling point n=n1 between the attracting point n=0 and another attracting point n=n2 in the vicinity of which the metastable population resides. The crux of the theory is a dissipative variant of WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approximation which assumes that the typical population size in the metastable state is large. Starting from the master equation, we calculate the quasistationary probability distribution of the population sizes and the (exponentially long) mean time to extinction for each of the two scenarios. When necessary, the WKB approximation is complemented (i) by a recursive solution of the quasistationary master equation at small n and (ii) by the van Kampen system-size expansion, valid near the fixed points of the deterministic rate equation. The theory yields both entropic barriers to extinction and pre-exponential factors, and holds for a general set of multistep processes when detailed balance is broken. The results simplify considerably for single-step processes and near the characteristic bifurcations of scenarios A and B. PMID:20365539

  5. Absolute ages from crater statistics: Using radiometric ages of Martian samples for determining the Martian cratering chronology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Neukum, G.

    1988-01-01

    In the absence of dates derived from rock samples, impact crater frequencies are commonly used to date Martian surface units. All models for absolute dating rely on the lunar cratering chronology and on the validity of its extrapolation to Martian conditions. Starting from somewhat different lunar chronologies, rather different Martian cratering chronologies are found in the literature. Currently favored models are compared. The differences at old ages are significant, the differences at younger ages are considerable and give absolute ages for the same crater frequencies as different as a factor of 3. The total uncertainty could be much higher, though, since the ratio of lunar to Martian cratering rate which is of basic importance in the models is believed to be known no better than within a factor of 2. Thus, it is of crucial importance for understanding the the evolution of Mars and determining the sequence of events to establish an unambiguous Martian cratering chronology from crater statistics in combination with clean radiometric ages of returned Martian samples. For the dating goal, rocks should be as pristine as possible from a geologically simple area with a one-stage emplacement history of the local formation. A minimum of at least one highland site for old ages, two intermediate-aged sites, and one very young site is needed.

  6. Extinction Risk Escalates in the Tropics

    PubMed Central

    Vamosi, Jana C.; Vamosi, Steven M.

    2008-01-01

    The latitudinal biodiversity gradient remains one of the most widely recognized yet puzzling patterns in nature [1]. Presently, the high level of extinction of tropical species, referred to as the “tropical biodiversity crisis”, has the potential to erode this pattern. While the connection between species richness, extinction, and speciation has long intrigued biologists [2], [3], these interactions have experienced increased poignancy due to their relevancy to where we should concentrate our conservation efforts. Natural extinction is a phenomenon thought to have its own latitudinal gradient, with lower extinction rates in the tropics being reported in beetles, birds, mammals, and bivalves [4]–[7]. Processes that have buffered ecosystems from high extinction rates in the past may also buffer ecosystems against disturbance of anthropogenic origin. While potential parallels between historical and present-day extinction patterns have been acknowledged, they remain only superficially explored and plant extinction patterns have been particularly neglected. Studies on the disappearances of animal species have reached conflicting conclusions, with the rate of extinction appearing either higher [8] or lower [9] in species richness hotspots. Our global study of extinction risk in vascular plants finds disproportionately higher extinction risk in tropical countries, even when indicators of human pressure (GDP, population density, forest cover change) are taken into account. Our results are at odds with the notion that the tropics represent a museum of plant biodiversity (places of historically lowered extinction) and we discuss mechanisms that may reconcile this apparent contradiction. PMID:19066623

  7. Were all extinction events caused by impacts?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheehan, P. M.; Coorough, P. J.

    Extraterrestrial impacts are firmly implicated in several of the five major Phanerozoic extinction events. A critical issue now is whether extraterrestrial events have been the only mechanism that produced physical changes of sufficient magnitude to cause major extinction events. While we believe the evidence is overwhelming that the KT extinction event was caused by an impact, we also find that an event of similar or larger size near the end of the Ordovician is best explained by terrestrial causes. The Ordovician extinction event (End-O extinction event) occurred near the end of the Ordovician, but the interval of extinction was completed prior to the newly established Ordovician-Silurian boundary. In spite of extensive field studies, a convincing signature of an associated impact has not been found. However, a prominent glaciation does coincide with the End-O extinction event.

  8. Were all extinction events caused by impacts?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sheehan, P. M.; Coorough, P. J.

    1994-01-01

    Extraterrestrial impacts are firmly implicated in several of the five major Phanerozoic extinction events. A critical issue now is whether extraterrestrial events have been the only mechanism that produced physical changes of sufficient magnitude to cause major extinction events. While we believe the evidence is overwhelming that the KT extinction event was caused by an impact, we also find that an event of similar or larger size near the end of the Ordovician is best explained by terrestrial causes. The Ordovician extinction event (End-O extinction event) occurred near the end of the Ordovician, but the interval of extinction was completed prior to the newly established Ordovician-Silurian boundary. In spite of extensive field studies, a convincing signature of an associated impact has not been found. However, a prominent glaciation does coincide with the End-O extinction event.

  9. The case for extraterrestrial causes of extinction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raup, D. M.

    1989-01-01

    The dramatic increase in our knowledge of large-body impacts that have occurred in Earth's history has led to strong arguments for the plausibility of meteorite impact as a cause of extinction. Proof of causation is often hampered, however, by our inability to demonstrate the synchronism of specific impacts and extinctions. A central problem is range truncation: the last reported occurrences of fossil taxa generally underestimate the true times of extinction. Range truncation, because of gaps in sedimentation, lack of preservation, or lack of discovery, can make sudden extinctions appear gradual and gradual extinctions appear sudden. Also, stepwise extinction may appear as an artefact of range truncation. These effects are demonstrated by experiments performed on data from field collections of Cretaceous ammonities from Zumaya (Spain). The challenge for future research is to develop a new calculus for treating biostratigraphic data so that fossils can provide more accurate assessments of the timing of extinctions.

  10. The Mid-Infrared Extinction Law in the Ophiuchus, Perseus, and Serpens Molecular Clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapman, Nicholas L.; Mundy, Lee G.; Lai, Shih-Ping; Evans, Neal J., II

    2009-01-01

    We compute the mid-IR extinction law from 3.6 to 24 μm in three molecular clouds—Ophiuchus, Perseus, and Serpens—by combining data from the "Cores to Disks" Spitzer Legacy Science program with deep JHKs imaging. Using a new technique, we are able to calculate the line-of-sight (LOS) extinction law toward each background star in our fields. With these LOS measurements, we create, for the first time, maps of the χ2 deviation of the data from two extinction law models. Because our χ2 maps have the same spatial resolution as our extinction maps, we can directly observe the changing extinction law as a function of the total column density. In the Spitzer Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) bands, 3.6-8 μm, we see evidence for grain growth. Below A_{K_s} = 0.5, our extinction law is well fitted by the Weingartner and Draine RV = 3.1 diffuse interstellar-medium dust model. As the extinction increases, our law gradually flattens, and for A_{K_s} \\ge 1, the data are more consistent with the Weingartner and Draine RV = 5.5 model that uses larger maximum dust grain sizes. At 24 μm, our extinction law is 2-4 times higher than the values predicted by theoretical dust models, but is more consistent with the observational results of Flaherty et al. Finally, from our χ2 maps we identify a region in Perseus where the IRAC extinction law is anomalously high considering its column density. A steeper near-IR extinction law than the one we have assumed may partially explain the IRAC extinction law in this region.

  11. THE MID-INFRARED EXTINCTION LAW IN THE OPHIUCHUS, PERSEUS, AND SERPENS MOLECULAR CLOUDS

    SciTech Connect

    Chapman, Nicholas L.; Mundy, Lee G.; Lai, Shih-Ping; Evans, Neal J. II

    2009-01-01

    We compute the mid-IR extinction law from 3.6 to 24 {mu}m in three molecular clouds-Ophiuchus, Perseus, and Serpens-by combining data from the 'Cores to Disks' Spitzer Legacy Science program with deep JHK{sub s} imaging. Using a new technique, we are able to calculate the line-of-sight (LOS) extinction law toward each background star in our fields. With these LOS measurements, we create, for the first time, maps of the {chi}{sup 2} deviation of the data from two extinction law models. Because our {chi}{sup 2} maps have the same spatial resolution as our extinction maps, we can directly observe the changing extinction law as a function of the total column density. In the Spitzer Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) bands, 3.6-8 {mu}m, we see evidence for grain growth. Below A{sub K{sub s}}= 0.5, our extinction law is well fitted by the Weingartner and Draine R{sub V} = 3.1 diffuse interstellar-medium dust model. As the extinction increases, our law gradually flattens, and for A{sub K{sub s}}{>=}1, the data are more consistent with the Weingartner and Draine R{sub V} = 5.5 model that uses larger maximum dust grain sizes. At 24 {mu}m, our extinction law is 2-4 times higher than the values predicted by theoretical dust models, but is more consistent with the observational results of Flaherty et al. Finally, from our {chi}{sup 2} maps we identify a region in Perseus where the IRAC extinction law is anomalously high considering its column density. A steeper near-IR extinction law than the one we have assumed may partially explain the IRAC extinction law in this region.

  12. The effect of area size and predation on the time to extinction of prairie vole populations. simulation studies via SERDYCA: a Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Model of Rodent Dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

    2003-11-21

    We present a spatially-explicit individual-based computational model of rodent dynamics, customized for the prairie vole species, M. Ochrogaster. The model is based on trophic relationships and represents important features such as territorial competition, mating behavior, density-dependent predation and dispersal out of the modeled spatial region. Vegetation growth and vole fecundity are dependent on climatic components. The results of simulations show that the model correctly predicts the overall temporal dynamics of the population density. Time-series analysis shows a very good match between the periods corresponding to the peak population density frequencies predicted by the model and the ones reported in the literature. The model is used to study the relation between persistence, landscape area and predation. We introduce the notions of average time to extinction (ATE) and persistence frequency to quantify persistence. While the ATE decreases with decrease of area, it is a bell-shaped function of the predation level: increasing for 'small' and decreasing for 'large' predation levels.

  13. Indirect evolutionary rescue: prey adapts, predator avoids extinction

    PubMed Central

    Yamamichi, Masato; Miner, Brooks E

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have increasingly recognized evolutionary rescue (adaptive evolution that prevents extinction following environmental change) as an important process in evolutionary biology and conservation science. Researchers have concentrated on single species living in isolation, but populations in nature exist within communities of interacting species, so evolutionary rescue should also be investigated in a multispecies context. We argue that the persistence or extinction of a focal species can be determined solely by evolutionary change in an interacting species. We demonstrate that prey adaptive evolution can prevent predator extinction in two-species predator–prey models, and we derive the conditions under which this indirect evolutionary interaction is essential to prevent extinction following environmental change. A nonevolving predator can be rescued from extinction by adaptive evolution of its prey due to a trade-off for the prey between defense against predation and population growth rate. As prey typically have larger populations and shorter generations than their predators, prey evolution can be rapid and have profound effects on predator population dynamics. We suggest that this process, which we term ‘indirect evolutionary rescue’, has the potential to be critically important to the ecological and evolutionary responses of populations and communities to dramatic environmental change. PMID:26366196

  14. Social buffering enhances extinction of conditioned fear responses in male rats.

    PubMed

    Mikami, Kaori; Kiyokawa, Yasushi; Takeuchi, Yukari; Mori, Yuji

    2016-09-01

    In social species, the phenomenon in which the presence of conspecific animals mitigates stress responses is called social buffering. We previously reported that social buffering in male rats ameliorated behavioral fear responses, as well as hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activation, elicited by an auditory conditioned stimulus (CS). However, after social buffering, it is not clear whether rats exhibit fear responses when they are re-exposed to the same CS in the absence of another rat. In the present study, we addressed this issue using an experimental model of extinction. High stress levels during extinction training impaired extinction, suggesting that extinction is enhanced when stress levels during extinction training are low. Therefore, we hypothesized that rats that had received social buffering during extinction training would not show fear responses to a CS, even in the absence of another rat, because social buffering had enhanced the extinction of conditioned fear responses. To test this, we subjected male fear-conditioned rats to extinction training either alone or with a non-conditioned male rat. The subjects were then individually re-exposed to the CS in a recall test. When the subjects individually underwent extinction training, no responses were suppressed in the recall test. Conversely, when the subjects received social buffering during extinction training, freezing and Fos expression in the paraventricular nucleus of the hypothalamus and lateral amygdala were suppressed. Additionally, the effects of social buffering were absent when the recall test was conducted in a different context from the extinction training. The present results suggest that social buffering enhances extinction of conditioned fear responses. PMID:27158024

  15. Density-Dependent Demographic Variation Determines Extinction Rate of Experimental Populations

    PubMed Central

    2005-01-01

    Understanding population extinctions is a chief goal of ecological theory. While stochastic theories of population growth are commonly used to forecast extinction, models used for prediction have not been adequately tested with experimental data. In a previously published experiment, variation in available food was experimentally manipulated in 281 laboratory populations of Daphnia magna to test hypothesized effects of environmental variation on population persistence. Here, half of those data were used to select and fit a stochastic model of population growth to predict extinctions of populations in the other half. When density-dependent demographic stochasticity was detected and incorporated in simple stochastic models, rates of population extinction were accurately predicted or only slightly biased. However, when density-dependent demographic stochasticity was not accounted for, as is usual when forecasting extinction of threatened and endangered species, predicted extinction rates were severely biased. Thus, an experimental demonstration shows that reliable estimates of extinction risk may be obtained for populations in variable environments if high-quality data are available for model selection and if density-dependent demographic stochasticity is accounted for. These results suggest that further consideration of density-dependent demographic stochasticity is required if predicted extinction rates are to be relied upon for conservation planning. PMID:15934788

  16. Systemic Blockade of D2-Like Dopamine Receptors Facilitates Extinction of Conditioned Fear in Mice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ponnusamy, Ravikumar; Nissim, Helen A.; Barad, Mark

    2005-01-01

    Extinction of conditioned fear in animals is the explicit model of behavior therapy for human anxiety disorders, including panic disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and post-traumatic stress disorder. Based on previous data indicating that fear extinction in rats is blocked by quinpirole, an agonist of dopamine D2 receptors, we hypothesized…