Relationship of race and poverty to lower extremity function and decline: findings from the Women's Health and Aging Study.

PubMed

Thorpe, Roland James; Kasper, Judith D; Szanton, Sarah L; Frick, Kevin D; Fried, Linda P; Simonsick, Eleanor M

2008-02-01

Race- and poverty-related disparities in physical function are well documented, though little is known about effects of race and poverty on functional decline and the progression of disability. We examined cross-sectional and longitudinal relationships between race, poverty and lower extremity function using data from moderately to severely disabled women in the U.S. Women's Health and Aging Study. Severity of lower extremity functional limitation was determined from scaled responses of reported difficulty walking (1/4) mile, walking across a room, climbing stairs, and stooping, crouching or kneeling. Usual walking speed assessed over 4m was our objective measure of function. Of the 996 women who described themselves as black or white, 284 (29%) were black and 367 (37%) were living at or below 100% of the federal poverty level. Independent of demographic and health-related factors, among white women, the poor exhibited consistently worse lower extremity function than the non-poor; this association, however, was not observed in black women. Among the non-poor, black women had slower walking speeds, and reported more limitation in lower extremity function than their non-poor white counterparts, even after adjusting for demographic variables and health-related characteristics. After 3 years, accounting for baseline function, demographic and health-related factors, race and poverty status were unrelated to functional decline. Thus, while race and poverty status were associated with functional deficits in old age, they do not appear to impact the rate of functional decline or progression of disability over 3 years.

Movement Repetitions in Physical and Occupational Therapy during Spinal Cord Injury Rehabilitation

PubMed Central

Zbogar, Dominik; Eng, Janice J; Miller, William C; Krassioukov, Andrei V; Verrier, Molly C

2016-01-01

Study Design Longitudinal observational study. Objective To quantify the amount of upper and lower extremity movement repetitions (i.e., voluntary movements as part of a functional task or specific motion) occurring during inpatient spinal cord injury (SCI) physical (PT) and occupational therapy (OT), and examine changes over the inpatient rehabilitation stay. Setting Two stand-alone inpatient SCI rehabilitation centres. Methods Participants 103 patients were recruited through consecutive admissions to SCI rehabilitation. Interventions Trained assistants observed therapy sessions and obtained clinical outcome measures in the second week following admission and in the second to last week prior to discharge. Main Outcome Measures PT and OT time, upper and lower extremity repetitions, and changes in these outcomes over the rehabilitation stay. Results We observed 561 PT and 347 OT sessions. Therapeutic time comprised two-thirds of total therapy time. Summed over PT and OT, median upper extremity repetitions in patients with paraplegia were 7 repetitions and in patients with tetraplegia, 42 repetitions. Lower extremity repetitions and steps primarily occurred in ambulatory patients and amounted to 218 and 115, respectively (summed over PT and OT sessions at discharge). Wilcoxon signed rank tests revealed that most repetition variables did not change significantly over the inpatient rehabilitation stay. In contrast, clinical outcomes for the arm and leg improved over this time period. Conclusions Repetitions of upper and lower extremity movement are markedly low during PT and OT sessions. Despite improvements in clinical outcomes, there was no significant increase in movement repetitions over the inpatient rehabilitation stay. PMID:27752057

Analyzing Longitudinal Data with Multilevel Models: An Example with Individuals Living with Lower Extremity Intra-articular Fractures

PubMed Central

Kwok, Oi-Man; Underhill, Andrea T.; Berry, Jack W.; Luo, Wen; Elliott, Timothy R.; Yoon, Myeongsun

2008-01-01

The use and quality of longitudinal research designs has increased over the past two decades, and new approaches for analyzing longitudinal data, including multi-level modeling (MLM) and latent growth modeling (LGM), have been developed. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the use of MLM and its advantages in analyzing longitudinal data. Data from a sample of individuals with intra-articular fractures of the lower extremity from the University of Alabama at Birmingham’s Injury Control Research Center is analyzed using both SAS PROC MIXED and SPSS MIXED. We start our presentation with a discussion of data preparation for MLM analyses. We then provide example analyses of different growth models, including a simple linear growth model and a model with a time-invariant covariate, with interpretation for all the parameters in the models. More complicated growth models with different between- and within-individual covariance structures and nonlinear models are discussed. Finally, information related to MLM analysis such as online resources is provided at the end of the paper. PMID:19649151

Association of Pain With Physical Function, Depressive Symptoms, Fatigue, and Sleep Quality Among Veteran and non-Veteran Postmenopausal Women

PubMed Central

Patel, Kushang V.; Cochrane, Barbara B.; Turk, Dennis C.; Bastian, Lori A.; Haskell, Sally G.; Woods, Nancy F.; Zaslavsky, Oleg; Wallace, Robert B.; Kerns, Robert D.

2016-01-01

Abstract Purpose of Study: To characterize the prevalence and longitudinal effects of pain in older Veteran and non-Veteran women. Design and Methods: Data on 144,956 participants in the Women’s Health Initiative were analyzed. At baseline, Veteran status, pain severity, and pain interference with activity were assessed. Outcomes of physical function, depressive symptoms, fatigue, and sleep quality were reported at baseline by all study participants and longitudinally on two follow-up occasions (3 years and 13–18 years after baseline) in the observational study participants ( n = 87,336). Results: At baseline, a total of 3,687 (2.5%) had a history of military service and 22,813 (15.8%) reported that pain limited their activity level moderately to extremely during the past 4 weeks. Prevalence of pain interference did not differ in Veterans and non-Veterans (16.8% and 15.7%, respectively; p = .09). At baseline, women with moderate-to-extreme pain interference had substantially worse physical function and greater symptoms of depression, fatigue, and insomnia than those with less pain ( p < .001 for all comparisons), adjusting for several social, behavioral, and health related factors. There were no significant military service by pain interference interactions for any of the outcomes ( p > .2), indicating that the effect of pain interference on outcomes at baseline did not vary between Veterans and non-Veterans. Moderate-to-extreme pain interference was associated with a greater rate of decline in physical function over time ( p < .001) and higher incidence of limited physical functioning ( p < .001), but these effects did not vary by Veteran status. Similar results were observed with pain severity as the exposure variable. Implications: As the Veteran population ages and the number of women exposed to combat operations grows, there will be an increased need for health care services that address not only pain severity and interference but also other disabling comorbid symptoms. PMID:26768395

Personality, Cognitive, and Interpersonal Factors in Adolescent Substance Use: A Longitudinal Test of an Integrative Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnea, Zipora; And Others

1992-01-01

A test with 1,446 high school students in Israel of a multidimensional model of adolescent drug use that incorporates sociodemographic variables, personality variables, cognitive variables, interpersonal factors, and the availability of drugs validated the model longitudinally. Results suggest that different legal and illegal substances share a…

Symptoms and Needs of Head and Neck Cancer Patients at Diagnosis of Incurability - Prevalences, Clinical Implications, and Feasibility of a Prospective Longitudinal Multicenter Cohort Study.

PubMed

Alt-Epping, Bernd; Seidel, Wiebke; Vogt, Jeannette; Mehnert, Anja; Thomas, Michael; van Oorschot, Birgitt; Wolff, Hendrik; Schliephake, Henning; Canis, Martin; Dröge, Leif H; Nauck, Friedemann; Lordick, Florian

2016-01-01

Little is known about the physical symptoms and psychosocial burden of patients at the time of diagnosis of an incurable situation, although cancer treatment guidelines demand early assessment and integration of palliative care concepts, beginning from the diagnosis of incurability. Therefore, we initiated a prospective longitudinal multicenter cohort study assessing the symptoms and needs of patients suffering from incurable cancer (various entities), from the time of diagnosing incurability (i.e., before palliative anticancer treatment was initiated) and in 3-monthly intervals thereafter, by using validated self-reporting tools. Here, we focus on patients with head and neck cancer and present preliminary results on symptoms and need prevalences, on clinical implications, and on the feasibility of a methodologically complex assessment procedure in a particularly vulnerable study population. 22 patients completed the first visit. The Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance scores and most physical symptoms and psychosocial items varied between the extremes, from a virtually uncompromised condition to extremely perceived symptoms and needs. If intense face-to-face study support was provided, the study concept proved to be feasible, despite the complexity of assessment, problems in interdisciplinary and patient communication, comorbidities, and early death from complications. The striking variability in the perceived symptom and need intensities requires a highly individualized approach. For clinical purposes, a less complex screening procedure would be desirable, in order to enable a routine, early and comprehensive support, including palliative care services. © 2016 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

A recurrence matrix method for the analysis of longitudinal and torsional vibrations in non-uniform multibranch beams with variable boundary conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, R. B.; Stephens, M. V.

1974-01-01

An approximate method for calculating the longitudinal and torsional natural frequencies and associated modal data of a beamlike, variable cross section multibranch structure is presented. The procedure described is the numerical integration of the first order differential equations that characterize the beam element in longitudinal motion and that satisfy the appropriate boundary conditions.

Prognostic factors of a satisfactory functional result in patients with unilateral amputations of the upper limb above the wrist that use an upper limb prosthesis.

PubMed

Dabaghi-Richerand, A; Haces-García, F; Capdevila-Leonori, R

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the prognostic factors of a satisfactory functional outcome in patients using upper extremity prosthetics with a proximal third forearm stump, and above, level of amputation. All patients with longitudinal deficiencies and traumatic amputations of upper extremity with a level of amputation of proximal third forearm and above were included. A total of 49 patients with unilateral upper extremity amputations that had used the prosthetic for a minimum of 2 years were included in the protocol. The Disability arm shoulder hand (DASH) scale was used to determine a good result with a cut-off of less than 40%. The independent variables were the level of amputation, the etiology for its use, initial age of use and number of hours/day using the prosthesis. It was found that patients with a congenital etiology and those that started using the prosthetic before 6 years of age had better functional results. It was found that when adapting a patient with an upper extremity prosthetic, which has a high rejection rate of up to 49%, better functional outcomes are found in those who started using it before 6 years of age, and preferably because of a congenital etiology. It was also found that the number of hours/day strongly correlates with a favorable functional outcome. Copyright © 2014 SECOT. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Relationships of sedimentation and benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages in headwater streams using systematic longitudinal sampling at the reach scale.

PubMed

Longing, S D; Voshell, J R; Dolloff, C A; Roghair, C N

2010-02-01

Investigating relationships of benthic invertebrates and sedimentation is challenging because fine sediments act as both natural habitat and potential pollutant at excessive levels. Determining benthic invertebrate sensitivity to sedimentation in forested headwater streams comprised of extreme spatial heterogeneity is even more challenging, especially when associated with a background of historical and intense watershed disturbances that contributed unknown amounts of fine sediments to stream channels. This scenario exists in the Chattahoochee National Forest where such historical timber harvests and contemporary land-uses associated with recreation have potentially affected the biological integrity of headwater streams. In this study, we investigated relationships of sedimentation and the macroinvertebrate assemblages among 14 headwater streams in the forest by assigning 30, 100-m reaches to low, medium, or high sedimentation categories. Only one of 17 assemblage metrics (percent clingers) varied significantly across these categories. This finding has important implications for biological assessments by showing streams impaired physically by sedimentation may not be impaired biologically, at least using traditional approaches. A subsequent multivariate cluster analysis and indicator species analysis were used to further investigate biological patterns independent of sedimentation categories. Evaluating the distribution of sedimentation categories among biological reach clusters showed both within-stream variability in reach-scale sedimentation and sedimentation categories generally variable within clusters, reflecting the overall physical heterogeneity of these headwater environments. Furthermore, relationships of individual sedimentation variables and metrics across the biological cluster groups were weak, suggesting these measures of sedimentation are poor predictors of macroinvertebrate assemblage structure when using a systematic longitudinal sampling design. Further investigations of invertebrate sensitivity to sedimentation may benefit from assessments of sedimentation impacts at different spatial scales, determining compromised physical habitat integrity of specific taxa and developing alternative streambed measures for quantifying sedimentation.

Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY): Derived Variables. Technical Report 64

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2012

2012-01-01

This technical report describes the 24 derived variables developed for users of the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) data. The variables fall into the categories education, employment and social, and help to simplify the complexity of the LSAY data by providing useful indicators for analysis. To help LSAY data users understand and…

Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY): 1995 Cohort Derived Variables. Technical Report 69

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2012

2012-01-01

This technical report details the derived variables developed for users of the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) data. The derived variables fall into the categories education, employment and social, and help to simplify the complexity of the LSAY data by providing useful indicators for analysis. To help LSAY data users understand…

Ambivalence toward palatable food and emotional eating predict weight fluctuations. Results of a longitudinal study with four waves.

PubMed

Keller, Carmen; Siegrist, Michael

2015-02-01

Weight fluctuations pose serious challenges to people's health. Research suggests that the interplay between cognitive dietary restraint and counter-regulative overeating impairs weight control. In a random sample from the general population (N = 2733, 49% male), a longitudinal survey was conducted over 4 consecutive years (2010-2013). Self-reported weight was used to calculate the variance of three weight changes from one wave to the next. Separate regression analyses for women and men were conducted. The dependent variable was weight fluctuation, and the independent variables were eating styles (emotional, external, and restrained) and ambivalence toward palatable food. Age and weight changes between the fourth and first years were controlled. A significant positive effect of emotional eating for men and women, and a significant positive effect of ambivalence for women, were found. Participants who demonstrated high levels of emotional eating, and women who had high levels of ambivalence in the beginning of the study, had more extreme relative weight fluctuations in the consecutive years than did persons with low levels of emotional eating or women with low levels of ambivalence. Restrained and external eating had no effect. The results suggest that emotional eating and ambivalence toward palatable food need to be addressed to prevent health-damaging weight fluctuations. Furthermore, ambivalence toward palatable food was revealed as an additional overeating tendency beyond emotional eating that must be considered to understand the interplay between dietary restraint and overeating. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Longitudinal Study of Pubertal Timing and Extreme Body Change Behaviors among Adolescent Boys and Girls

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCabe, Marita P.; Ricciardelli, Lina A.

2004-01-01

Recent studies have examined the prevalence of disordered eating and other health risk behaviors among adolescent boys and girls. However, these studies generally have not examined predictors of these behaviors, and have not embedded the investigations within a theoretical framework. This study employed a longitudinal design to evaluate the…

Educational Characteristics of Adolescents with Gifted Academic Intrinsic Motivation: A Longitudinal Investigation from School Entry through Early Adulthood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gottfried, Allen W.; Clayton R. Cook; Gottfried, Adele Eskeles; Morris, Phillip E.

2005-01-01

The construct of gifted motivation was examined in a contemporary, long-term, longitudinal investigation. Adolescents with extremely high academic intrinsic motivation (i.e., gifted motivation) were compared to their cohort peer comparison on a variety of educationally relevant measures from elementary school through the early adulthood years.…

Family meals and disordered eating in adolescents: longitudinal findings from project EAT.

PubMed

Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Eisenberg, Marla E; Fulkerson, Jayne A; Story, Mary; Larson, Nicole I

2008-01-01

To examine 5-year longitudinal associations between family meal frequency and disordered eating behaviors in adolescents. Longitudinal study. Participants from 31 Minnesota schools completed in-class assessments in 1999 (time 1) and mailed surveys in 2004 (time 2). Adolescents (N=2516) who completed Project EAT (Eating Among Teens)-I (time 1) and -II (time 2) assessments. Time 1 family meal frequency and time 2 disordered eating behaviors, including extreme weight control behaviors (self-induced vomiting and use of laxatives, diet pills, or diuretics), less extreme unhealthy weight control behaviors (eating very little, fasting, using food substitutes, skipping meals, or smoking), binge eating, and chronic dieting. Among adolescent girls, time 1 regular family meals (> or = 5 meals/wk) were associated with lower prevalences of time 2 extreme weight control behaviors (odds ratio, 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.97), even after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, body mass index, family connectedness, parental encouragement to diet, and extreme weight control behaviors at time 1. Associations with other disordered eating behaviors were also suggestive of a protective effect of family meals in unadjusted analyses but were not statistically significant in adjusted analyses. Among adolescent boys, regular family meals did not predict lower levels of disordered eating behaviors. The high prevalence of disordered eating behaviors among adolescent girls and the protective role of family meals suggest a need for interventions aimed at promoting family meals. Further exploration of predictors of disordered eating behaviors in adolescent boys and the role of family meals is warranted.

SALGOT - Stroke Arm Longitudinal study at the University of Gothenburg, prospective cohort study protocol

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Recovery patterns of upper extremity motor function have been described in several longitudinal studies, but most of these studies have had selected samples, short follow up times or insufficient outcomes on motor function. The general understanding is that improvements in upper extremity occur mainly during the first month after the stroke incident and little if any, significant recovery can be gained after 3-6 months. The purpose of this study is to describe the recovery of upper extremity function longitudinally in a non-selected sample initially admitted to a stroke unit with first ever stroke, living in Gothenburg urban area. Methods/Design A sample of 120 participants with a first-ever stroke and impaired upper extremity function will be consecutively included from an acute stroke unit and followed longitudinally for one year. Assessments are performed at eight occasions: at day 3 and 10, week 3, 4 and 6, month 3, 6 and 12 after onset of stroke. The primary clinical outcome measures are Action Research Arm Test and Fugl-Meyer Assessment for Upper Extremity. As additional measures, two new computer based objective methods with kinematic analysis of arm movements are used. The ABILHAND questionnaire of manual ability, Stroke Impact Scale, grip strength, spasticity, pain, passive range of motion and cognitive function will be assessed as well. At one year follow up, two patient reported outcomes, Impact on Participation and Autonomy and EuroQol Quality of Life Scale, will be added to cover the status of participation and aspects of health related quality of life. Discussion This study comprises a non-selected population with first ever stroke and impaired arm function. Measurements are performed both using traditional clinical assessments as well as computer based measurement systems providing objective kinematic data. The ICF classification of functioning, disability and health is used as framework for the selection of assessment measures. The study design with several repeated measurements on motor function will give us more confident information about the recovery patterns after stroke. This knowledge is essential both for optimizing rehabilitation planning as well as providing important information to the patient about the recovery perspectives. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01115348 PMID:21612620

Spatial variability of extreme rainfall at radar subpixel scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Marra, Francesco; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2018-01-01

Extreme rainfall is quantified in engineering practice using Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) that are traditionally derived from rain-gauges and more recently also from remote sensing instruments, such as weather radars. These instruments measure rainfall at different spatial scales: rain-gauge samples rainfall at the point scale while weather radar averages precipitation on a relatively large area, generally around 1 km2. As such, a radar derived IDF curve is representative of the mean areal rainfall over a given radar pixel and neglects the within-pixel rainfall variability. In this study, we quantify subpixel variability of extreme rainfall by using a novel space-time rainfall generator (STREAP model) that downscales in space the rainfall within a given radar pixel. The study was conducted using a unique radar data record (23 years) and a very dense rain-gauge network in the Eastern Mediterranean area (northern Israel). Radar-IDF curves, together with an ensemble of point-based IDF curves representing the radar subpixel extreme rainfall variability, were developed fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to annual rainfall maxima. It was found that the mean areal extreme rainfall derived from the radar underestimate most of the extreme values computed for point locations within the radar pixel (on average, ∼70%). The subpixel variability of rainfall extreme was found to increase with longer return periods and shorter durations (e.g. from a maximum variability of 10% for a return period of 2 years and a duration of 4 h to 30% for 50 years return period and 20 min duration). For the longer return periods, a considerable enhancement of extreme rainfall variability was found when stochastic (natural) climate variability was taken into account. Bounding the range of the subpixel extreme rainfall derived from radar-IDF can be of major importance for different applications that require very local estimates of rainfall extremes.

Variability of Extreme Precipitation Events in Tijuana, Mexico During ENSO Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavazos, T.; Rivas, D.

2007-05-01

We present the variability of daily precipitation extremes (top 10 percecnt) in Tijuana, Mexico during 1950-2000. Interannual rainfall variability is significantly modulated by El Nino/Southern Oscillation. The interannual precipitation variability exhibits a large change with a relatively wet period and more variability during 1976- 2000. The wettest years and the largest frequency of daily extremes occurred after 1976-1977, with 6 out of 8 wet years characterized by El Nino episodes and 2 by neutral conditions. However, more than half of the daily extremes during 1950-2000 occurred in non-ENSO years, evidencing that neutral conditions also contribute significantly to extreme climatic variability in the region. Extreme events that occur in neutral (strong El Nino) conditions are associated with a pineapple express and a neutral PNA (negative TNH) teleconnection pattern that links an anomalous tropical convective forcing west (east) of the date line with a strong subtropical jet over the study area. At regional scale, both types of extremes are characterized by a trough in the subtropical jet over California/Baja California, which is further intensified by thermal interaction with an anomalous warm California Current off Baja California, low-level moisture advection from the subtropical warm sea-surface region, intense convective activity over the study area and extreme rainfall from southern California to Baja California.

Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY): 1995 Cohort--User Guide. Data Elements B2: Education. Technical Report 49B2

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2009

2009-01-01

This technical paper contains information about the variables in the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) Year 95 cohort data set. It groups each variable into data elements that identify common variables within and across waves. Information is provided about each data element, including its purpose, values, base populations and…

Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY): 1995 Cohort--User Guide. Data Elements A: Demographics. Technical Report 49A

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2012

2012-01-01

This technical paper contains information about the variables in the LSAY (Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth) Y95 cohort data set. It groups each variable into data elements which identifies common variables within and across waves. Information is provided about each data element including its purpose, values, base populations and relevant…

Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY): 1995 Cohort--User Guide. Data Elements C: Employment. Technical Report 49C

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2009

2009-01-01

This technical paper contains information about the variables in the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) Year 95 cohort data set. It groups each variable into data elements that identify common variables within and across waves. Information is provided about each data element including its purpose, values, base populations and relevant…

Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY): 1995 Cohort--User Guide. Data Elements D: Social. Technical Report 49D

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2009

2009-01-01

This technical paper contains information about the variables in the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) Year 95 cohort data set. It groups each variable into data elements that identify common variables within and across waves. Information is provided about each data element including its purpose, values, base populations and relevant…

Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY): 1998 Cohort--User Guide. Data Elements D: Social. Technical Report 53D

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2009

2009-01-01

This technical paper contains information about the variables in the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) Year 1998 cohort data set. It groups each variable into data elements which identifies common variables within and across waves. Information is provided about each data element including its purpose, values, base populations and…

Local time, seasonal, and solar cycle dependency of longitudinal variations of TEC along the crest of EIA over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sunda, Surendra; Vyas, B. M.

2013-10-01

global wave number 4 structure in the Indian longitudinal region spanning from ~70 to 95°E forming the upward slope of the peak in the total electron content (TEC) are reported along the crest of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). The continuous and simultaneous measurements from five GPS stations of GPS Aided Geo Augmented Navigation (GAGAN) network are used in this study. The long-term database (2004-2012) is utilized for examining the local time, seasonal, and solar cycle dependency on the longitudinal variations of TEC. Our results confirm the existence of longitudinal variations of TEC in accordance with wave number 4 longitudinal structure including its strength. The results suggest that these variations, in general, start to develop at ~09 LT, achieve maximum strength at 12-15 LT, and decay thereafter, the decay rate depending on the season. They are more pronounced in equinoctial season followed by summer and winter. The longitudinal variations persist beyond midnight in equinox seasons, whereas in winter, they are conspicuously absent. Interestingly, they also exhibit significant solar cycle dependence in the solstices, whereas in the equinoxes, they are independent of solar activity. The comparison of crest-to-trough ratio (CTR) in the eastern (92°E) and western (72°E) extreme longitudes reveals higher CTR on the eastern side than over the western extreme, suggesting the role of nonmigrating tides in modulating the ExB vertical drift and the consequential EIA crest formation.

Biomotor structures in elite female handball players according to performance.

PubMed

Cavala, Marijana; Rogulj, Nenad; Srhoj, Vatromir; Srhoj, Ljerka; Katić, Ratko

2008-03-01

In order to identify biomotor structures in elite female handball players, factor structures of morphological characteristics and basic motor abilities, and of variables evaluating situation motor abilities of elite female handball players (n = 53) were determined first, followed by determination of differences and relations of the morphological, motor and specific motor space according to handball performance. Factor analysis of 16 morphological measures produced three morphological factors, i.e. factor of absolute voluminosity, i.e. mesoendomorphy, factor of longitudinal skeleton dimensionality, and factor of transverse hand dimensionality. Factor analysis of 15 motor variables yielded five basic motor dimensions, i.e. factor of agility, factor of throwing explosive strength, factor of running explosive strength (sprint), factor of jumping explosive strength and factor of movement frequency rate. Factor analysis of 5 situation motor variables produced two dimensions: factor of specific agility with explosiveness and factor of specific precision with ball manipulation. Analysis of variance yielded greatest differences relative to handball performance in the factor of specific agility and throwing strength, and the factor of basic motoricity that integrates the ability of coordination (agility) with upper extremity throwing explosiveness and lower extremity sprint (30-m sprint) and jumping (standing triple jump). Considering morphological factors, the factor of voluminosity, i.e. mesoendomorphy, which is defined by muscle mass rather than adipose tissue, was found to contribute significantly to the players'performance. Results of regression analysis indicated the handball performance to be predominantly determined by the general specific motor factor based on specific agility and explosiveness, and by the morphological factor based on body mass and volume, i.e. muscle mass. Concerning basic motor abilities, the factor of movement frequency rate, which is associated with the ability of ball manipulation, was observed to predict significantly the handball players' performance.

Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY): 1995 Cohort--User Guide. Data Elements B1: Education. Technical Report 49B1

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), 2009

2009-01-01

This technical paper contains information about the variables in the LSAY (Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth) Y95 cohort data set. It groups each variable into data elements which identifies common variables within and across waves. Information is provided about each data element including its purpose, values, base populations and relevant.…

Extreme Radio Flares and Associated X-Ray Variability from Young Stellar Objects in the Orion Nebula Cluster

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forbrich, Jan; Reid, Mark J.; Wolk, Scott J.

Young stellar objects are known to exhibit strong radio variability on timescales of weeks to months, and a few reports have documented extreme radio flares with at least an order of magnitude change in flux density on timescales of hours to days. However, there have been few constraints on the occurrence rate of such radio flares or on the correlation with pre-main sequence X-ray flares, although such correlations are known for the Sun and nearby active stars. Here we report simultaneous deep VLA radio and Chandra X-ray observations of the Orion Nebula Cluster, targeting hundreds of sources to look formore » the occurrence rate of extreme radio variability and potential correlation with the most extreme X-ray variability. We identify 13 radio sources with extreme radio variability, with some showing an order of magnitude change in flux density in less than 30 minutes. All of these sources show X-ray emission and variability, but we find clear correlations with extreme radio flaring only on timescales <1 hr. Strong X-ray variability does not predict the extreme radio sources and vice versa. Radio flares thus provide us with a new perspective on high-energy processes in YSOs and the irradiation of their protoplanetary disks. Finally, our results highlight implications for interferometric imaging of sources violating the constant-sky assumption.« less

Longitudinal study of arteriogenesis with swept source optical coherence tomography and hyperspectral imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poole, Kristin M.; Patil, Chetan A.; Nelson, Christopher E.; McCormack, Devin R.; Madonna, Megan C.; Duvall, Craig L.; Skala, Melissa C.

2014-03-01

Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is an atherosclerotic disease of the extremities that leads to high rates of myocardial infarction and stroke, increased mortality, and reduced quality of life. PAD is especially prevalent in diabetic patients, and is commonly modeled by hind limb ischemia in mice to study collateral vessel development and test novel therapies. Current techniques used to assess recovery cannot obtain quantitative, physiological data non-invasively. Here, we have applied hyperspectral imaging and swept source optical coherence tomography (OCT) to study longitudinal changes in blood oxygenation and vascular morphology, respectively, intravitally in the diabetic mouse hind limb ischemia model. Additionally, recommended ranges for controlling physiological variability in blood oxygenation with respect to respiration rate and body core temperature were determined from a control animal experiment. In the longitudinal study with diabetic mice, hyperspectral imaging data revealed the dynamics of blood oxygenation recovery distally in the ischemic footpad. In diabetic mice, there is an early increase in oxygenation that is not sustained in the long term. Quantitative analysis of vascular morphology obtained from Hessian-filtered speckle variance OCT volumes revealed temporal dynamics in vascular density, total vessel length, and vessel diameter distribution in the adductor muscle of the ischemic limb. The combination of hyperspectral imaging and speckle variance OCT enabled acquisition of novel functional and morphological endpoints from individual animals, and provides a more robust platform for future preclinical evaluations of novel therapies for PAD.

Trajectories of psychopathology in extremely low birth weight survivors from early adolescence to adulthood: a 20-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Van Lieshout, Ryan J; Ferro, Mark A; Schmidt, Louis A; Boyle, Michael H; Saigal, Saroj; Morrison, Katherine M; Mathewson, Karen J

2018-04-18

Individuals born extremely preterm are exposed to significant perinatal stresses that are associated with an increased risk of psychopathology. However, a paucity of longitudinal studies has prevented the empirical examination of long-term, dynamic effects of perinatal adversity on mental health. Here, internalizing and externalizing problems from adolescence through adulthood were compared in individuals born at extremely low birth weight (ELBW; <1,000 g) and normal birth weight (NBW; >2,500 g). Internalizing and externalizing data were collected over 20 years in three waves, during adolescence, young adulthood, and adulthood. Growth models were used to compare longitudinal trajectories in a geographically based sample of 151 ELBW survivors and 137 NBW control participants born between 1977 and 1982 matched for age, sex, and socioeconomic status at age 8. After adjusting for sex, socioeconomic and immigrant status, and family functioning, ELBW survivors failed to show the normative, age-related decline in internalizing problems over time relative to their NBW peers (β = .21; p < .01). Both groups exhibited small declines in externalizing problems over the same period. Self-esteem (but not physical health, IQ, or maternal mood) partially mediated the association between ELBW status and internalizing problems. Extremely low birth weight survivors experienced a blunting of the expected improvement in depression and anxiety from adolescence to adulthood. These findings suggest that altered physiological regulatory systems supporting emotional and cognitive processing may contribute to the maintenance of internalizing problems in this population. © 2018 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Bei; Liu, Ying D.; Hu, Huidong

We study the solar energetic particle (SEP) event associated with the 2012 July 23 extreme solar storm, for which Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and the spacecraft at L1 provide multi-point remote sensing and in situ observations. The extreme solar storm, with a superfast shock and extremely enhanced ejecta magnetic fields observed near 1 au at STEREO A , was caused by the combination of successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Meanwhile, energetic particles were observed by STEREO and near-Earth spacecraft such as the Advanced Composition Explorer and SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory , suggesting a wide longitudinal spread of the particlesmore » at 1 au. Combining the SEP observations with in situ plasma and magnetic field measurements, we investigate the longitudinal distribution of the SEP event in connection with the associated shock and CMEs. Our results underscore the complex magnetic configuration of the inner heliosphere formed by solar eruptions. Examination of particle intensities, proton anisotropy distributions, element abundance ratios, magnetic connectivity, and spectra also gives important clues for particle acceleration, transport, and distribution.« less

On Latent Growth Models for Composites and Their Constituents.

PubMed

Hancock, Gregory R; Mao, Xiulin; Kher, Hemant

2013-09-01

Over the last decade and a half, latent growth modeling has become an extremely popular and versatile technique for evaluating longitudinal change and its determinants. Most common among the models applied are those for a single measured variable over time. This model has been extended in a variety of ways, most relevant for the current work being the multidomain and the second-order latent growth models. Whereas the former allows for growth function characteristics to be modeled for multiple outcomes simultaneously, with the degree of growth characteristics' relations assessed within the model (e.g., cross-domain slope factor correlations), the latter models growth in latent outcomes, each of which has effect indicators repeated over time. But what if one has an outcome that is believed to be formative relative to its indicator variables rather than latent? In this case, where the outcome is a composite of multiple constituents, modeling change over time is less straightforward. This article provides analytical and applied details for simultaneously modeling growth in composites and their constituent elements, including a real data example using a general computer self-efficacy questionnaire.

Variable selection for marginal longitudinal generalized linear models.

PubMed

Cantoni, Eva; Flemming, Joanna Mills; Ronchetti, Elvezio

2005-06-01

Variable selection is an essential part of any statistical analysis and yet has been somewhat neglected in the context of longitudinal data analysis. In this article, we propose a generalized version of Mallows's C(p) (GC(p)) suitable for use with both parametric and nonparametric models. GC(p) provides an estimate of a measure of model's adequacy for prediction. We examine its performance with popular marginal longitudinal models (fitted using GEE) and contrast results with what is typically done in practice: variable selection based on Wald-type or score-type tests. An application to real data further demonstrates the merits of our approach while at the same time emphasizing some important robust features inherent to GC(p).

Dynamics of Longitudinal Impact in the Variable Cross-Section Rods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepanov, R.; Romenskyi, D.; Tsarenko, S.

2018-03-01

Dynamics of longitudinal impact in rods of variable cross-section is considered. Rods of various configurations are used as elements of power pulse systems. There is no single method to the construction of a mathematical model of longitudinal impact on rods. The creation of a general method for constructing a mathematical model of longitudinal impact for rods of variable cross-section is the goal of the article. An elastic rod is considered with a cross-sectional area varying in powers of law from the longitudinal coordinate. The solution of the wave equation is obtained using the Fourier method. Special functions are introduced on the basis of recurrence relations for Bessel functions for solving boundary value problems. The expression for the square of the norm is obtained taking into account the orthogonality property of the eigen functions with weight. For example, the impact of an inelastic mass along the wide end of a conical rod is considered. The expressions for the displacements, forces and stresses of the rod sections are obtained for the cases of sudden velocity communication and the application of force. The proposed mathematical model makes it possible to carry out investigations of the stress-strain state in rods of variable and constant cross-section for various conditions of dynamic effects.

Estimators for longitudinal latent exposure models: examining measurement model assumptions.

PubMed

Sánchez, Brisa N; Kim, Sehee; Sammel, Mary D

2017-06-15

Latent variable (LV) models are increasingly being used in environmental epidemiology as a way to summarize multiple environmental exposures and thus minimize statistical concerns that arise in multiple regression. LV models may be especially useful when multivariate exposures are collected repeatedly over time. LV models can accommodate a variety of assumptions but, at the same time, present the user with many choices for model specification particularly in the case of exposure data collected repeatedly over time. For instance, the user could assume conditional independence of observed exposure biomarkers given the latent exposure and, in the case of longitudinal latent exposure variables, time invariance of the measurement model. Choosing which assumptions to relax is not always straightforward. We were motivated by a study of prenatal lead exposure and mental development, where assumptions of the measurement model for the time-changing longitudinal exposure have appreciable impact on (maximum-likelihood) inferences about the health effects of lead exposure. Although we were not particularly interested in characterizing the change of the LV itself, imposing a longitudinal LV structure on the repeated multivariate exposure measures could result in high efficiency gains for the exposure-disease association. We examine the biases of maximum likelihood estimators when assumptions about the measurement model for the longitudinal latent exposure variable are violated. We adapt existing instrumental variable estimators to the case of longitudinal exposures and propose them as an alternative to estimate the health effects of a time-changing latent predictor. We show that instrumental variable estimators remain unbiased for a wide range of data generating models and have advantages in terms of mean squared error. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H.; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K. S.; Dhanesh, Y.; Sudheer, K. P.; Gunthe, S. S.

2016-01-01

India’s agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins. PMID:27463092

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

PubMed

Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K S; Dhanesh, Y; Sudheer, K P; Gunthe, S S

2016-01-01

India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

Modeling Associations among Multivariate Longitudinal Categorical Variables in Survey Data: A Semiparametric Bayesian Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tchumtchoua, Sylvie; Dey, Dipak K.

2012-01-01

This paper proposes a semiparametric Bayesian framework for the analysis of associations among multivariate longitudinal categorical variables in high-dimensional data settings. This type of data is frequent, especially in the social and behavioral sciences. A semiparametric hierarchical factor analysis model is developed in which the…

Temporal patterns of variable relationships in person-oriented research: longitudinal models of configural frequency analysis.

PubMed

von Eye, Alexander; Mun, Eun Young; Bogat, G Anne

2008-03-01

This article reviews the premises of configural frequency analysis (CFA), including methods of choosing significance tests and base models, as well as protecting alpha, and discusses why CFA is a useful approach when conducting longitudinal person-oriented research. CFA operates at the manifest variable level. Longitudinal CFA seeks to identify those temporal patterns that stand out as more frequent (CFA types) or less frequent (CFA antitypes) than expected with reference to a base model. A base model that has been used frequently in CFA applications, prediction CFA, and a new base model, auto-association CFA, are discussed for analysis of cross-classifications of longitudinal data. The former base model takes the associations among predictors and among criteria into account. The latter takes the auto-associations among repeatedly observed variables into account. Application examples of each are given using data from a longitudinal study of domestic violence. It is demonstrated that CFA results are not redundant with results from log-linear modeling or multinomial regression and that, of these approaches, CFA shows particular utility when conducting person-oriented research.

Application of variable-gain output feedback for high-alpha control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ostroff, Aaron J.

1990-01-01

A variable-gain, optimal, discrete, output feedback design approach that is applied to a nonlinear flight regime is described. The flight regime covers a wide angle-of-attack range that includes stall and post stall. The paper includes brief descriptions of the variable-gain formulation, the discrete-control structure and flight equations used to apply the design approach, and the high performance airplane model used in the application. Both linear and nonlinear analysis are shown for a longitudinal four-model design case with angles of attack of 5, 15, 35, and 60 deg. Linear and nonlinear simulations are compared for a single-point longitudinal design at 60 deg angle of attack. Nonlinear simulations for the four-model, multi-mode, variable-gain design include a longitudinal pitch-up and pitch-down maneuver and high angle-of-attack regulation during a lateral maneuver.

Reliabilities of Intraindividual Variability Indicators with Autocorrelated Longitudinal Data: Implications for Longitudinal Study Designs.

PubMed

Du, Han; Wang, Lijuan

2018-04-23

Intraindividual variability can be measured by the intraindividual standard deviation ([Formula: see text]), intraindividual variance ([Formula: see text]), estimated hth-order autocorrelation coefficient ([Formula: see text]), and mean square successive difference ([Formula: see text]). Unresolved issues exist in the research on reliabilities of intraindividual variability indicators: (1) previous research only studied conditions with 0 autocorrelations in the longitudinal responses; (2) the reliabilities of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] have not been studied. The current study investigates reliabilities of [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and the intraindividual mean, with autocorrelated longitudinal data. Reliability estimates of the indicators were obtained through Monte Carlo simulations. The impact of influential factors on reliabilities of the intraindividual variability indicators is summarized, and the reliabilities are compared across the indicators. Generally, all the studied indicators of intraindividual variability were more reliable with a more reliable measurement scale and more assessments. The reliabilities of [Formula: see text] were generally lower than those of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], the reliabilities of [Formula: see text] were usually between those of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] unless the scale reliability was large and/or the interindividual standard deviation in autocorrelation coefficients was large, and the reliabilities of the intraindividual mean were generally the highest. An R function is provided for planning longitudinal studies to ensure sufficient reliabilities of the intraindividual indicators are achieved.

Does Parenting Shield Youth from Exposure to Violence during Adolescence? A 5-Year Longitudinal Test in a High-Poverty Sample of Minority Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spano, Richard; Rivera, Craig; Bolland, John M.

2011-01-01

Five waves of longitudinal data collected from 349 African American youth living in extreme poverty were used to determine if parental monitoring shielded youth from exposure to violence during adolescence. Semiparametric group-based modeling was used to identify trajectories of parental monitoring and exposure to violence from T1 to T5. Results…

Origin of the extremely large magnetoresistance in the semimetal YSb

DOE PAGES

Xu, J.; Ghimire, N. J.; Jiang, J. S.; ...

2017-08-29

Extremely large magnetoresistance (XMR) was recently discovered in YSb but its origin, along with that of many other XMR materials, is an active subject of debate. Here we demonstrate that YSb, with a cubic crystalline lattice and anisotropic bulk electron Fermi pockets, can be an excellent candidate for revealing the origin of XMR. We carried out angle dependent Shubnikov – de Haas quantum oscillation measurements to determine the volume and shape of the Fermi pockets. In addition, by investigating both Hall and longitudinal magnetoresistivities, we reveal that the origin of XMR in YSb lies in its carrier high mobility withmore » a diminishing Hall factor that is obtained from the ratio of the Hall and longitudinal magentoresistivities. The high mobility leads to a strong magnetic field dependence of the longitudinal magnetoconductivity while a diminishing Hall factor reveals the latent XMR hidden in the longitudinal magnetoconductivity whose inverse has a nearly quadratic magnetic-field dependence. The Hall factor highlights the deviation of the measured magnetoresistivity from its full potential value and provides a general formulation to reveal the origin of XMR behavior in high mobility materials and of nonsaturating MR behavior as a whole. Our approach can be readily applied to other XMR materials.« less

Characterisation and Outcomes of Upper Extremity Amputations

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

military service members from 1 October 2001 to 30 July 2011 was conducted. Data from the Department of Defense Trauma Registry, the Armed Forces... Trauma Registry, the Armed Forces Health Longitudinal Technology Application, and the Physical Evaluation Board Liaison Offices were queried in order to...without associated lower extremity amputation. This cohort was cross-referenced with the Department of Defense Trauma Registry (DoDTR, Joint Base

High variability of individual longitudinal motor performance over five years in very preterm infants.

PubMed

Janssen, Anjo J W M; Oostendorp, Rob A B; Akkermans, Reinier P; Steiner, Katerina; Kollée, Louis A A; Nijhuis-van der Sanden, Maria W G

2016-12-01

To determine longitudinal motor performance in very preterm (VPT) infants from 6 months to 5 years of age for the entire cohort of infants, according to gender and gestational age and at the individual level. Single-center, prospective longitudinal study of 201 VPT infants (106 boys) without severe impairments. Motor performance was assessed with the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID-II-MS: 6, 12, 24 months) and the Movement Assessment Battery for Children (MABC-2-NL: 5 years). At 6, 12, and 24 months and then at 5 years, 77%, 80%, 48%, and 22% of the infants, respectively, showed delayed motor performance (<-1SD). At 5 years, girls performed significantly better than boys in manual dexterity and balance. MIXED MODEL ANALYSES: that examined interactions between time and gender and time and gestational age, revealed no significant interactions. The variance at child level was 29%. Linear mixed model analysis revealed that mean z-scores of -1.46 at 6 months of age declined significantly to -0.52 at 5 years. Individual longitudinal motor performance showed high variability. Longitudinal motor performance improved almost 1 SD over five years. However, the variability of individual longitudinal motor performance hampers evaluation in clinical care and research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prefrontal Hemodynamics in Toddlers at Rest: A Pilot Study of Developmental Variability

PubMed Central

Anderson, Afrouz A.; Smith, Elizabeth; Chowdhry, Fatima A.; Thurm, Audrey; Condy, Emma; Swineford, Lauren; Manwaring, Stacy S.; Amyot, Franck; Matthews, Dennis; Gandjbakhche, Amir H.

2017-01-01

Functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a non-invasive functional neuroimaging modality. Although, it is amenable to use in infants and young children, there is a lack of fNIRS research within the toddler age range. In this study, we used fNIRS to measure cerebral hemodynamics in the prefrontal cortex (PFC) in 18–36 months old toddlers (n = 29) as part of a longitudinal study that enrolled typically-developing toddlers as well as those “at risk” for language and other delays based on presence of early language delays. In these toddlers, we explored two hemodynamic response indices during periods of rest during which time audiovisual children's programming was presented. First, we investigate Lateralization Index, based on differences in oxy-hemoglobin saturation from left and right prefrontal cortex. Then, we measure oxygenation variability (OV) index, based on variability in oxygen saturation at frequencies attributed to cerebral autoregulation. Preliminary findings show that lower cognitive (including language) abilities are associated with fNIRS measures of both lower OV index and more extreme Lateralization index values. These preliminary findings show the feasibility of using fNIRS in toddlers, including those at risk for developmental delay, and lay the groundwork for future studies. PMID:28611578

A Longitudinal Examination of the Relationship of Selected Institutional Variables to Community College Foundation Revenue

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patterson, Van; Justice, Madeline; Scott, Joyce A.

2012-01-01

The primary purpose of this study was to examine the annual revenue received by United States public Community College Foundations from 2008-2009 in relation to selected variables associated in the literature with successful foundation performance. This study also collected longitudinal data by replicating and expanding upon a similar study…

A Longitudinal Examination of the Relationship of Selected Institutional Variables to Community College Foundation Revenue

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patterson, Vandiver L.

2011-01-01

The primary purpose of this study was to examine the annual revenue received by United States public community college foundations from 2008-2009 in relation to selected variables associated in the literature with successful foundation performance. This study also attempted to collect longitudinal data by replicating and expanding upon a similar…

Latent Variable Regression 4-Level Hierarchical Model Using Multisite Multiple-Cohorts Longitudinal Data. CRESST Report 801

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Choi, Kilchan

2011-01-01

This report explores a new latent variable regression 4-level hierarchical model for monitoring school performance over time using multisite multiple-cohorts longitudinal data. This kind of data set has a 4-level hierarchical structure: time-series observation nested within students who are nested within different cohorts of students. These…

Predictors for Physical Activity in Adolescent Girls Using Statistical Shrinkage Techniques for Hierarchical Longitudinal Mixed Effects Models

PubMed Central

Grant, Edward M.; Young, Deborah Rohm; Wu, Tong Tong

2015-01-01

We examined associations among longitudinal, multilevel variables and girls’ physical activity to determine the important predictors for physical activity change at different adolescent ages. The Trial of Activity for Adolescent Girls 2 study (Maryland) contributed participants from 8th (2009) to 11th grade (2011) (n=561). Questionnaires were used to obtain demographic, and psychosocial information (individual- and social-level variables); height, weight, and triceps skinfold to assess body composition; interviews and surveys for school-level data; and self-report for neighborhood-level variables. Moderate to vigorous physical activity minutes were assessed from accelerometers. A doubly regularized linear mixed effects model was used for the longitudinal multilevel data to identify the most important covariates for physical activity. Three fixed effects at the individual level and one random effect at the school level were chosen from an initial total of 66 variables, consisting of 47 fixed effects and 19 random effects variables, in additional to the time effect. Self-management strategies, perceived barriers, and social support from friends were the three selected fixed effects, and whether intramural or interscholastic programs were offered in middle school was the selected random effect. Psychosocial factors and friend support, plus a school’s physical activity environment, affect adolescent girl’s moderate to vigorous physical activity longitudinally. PMID:25928064

Specifying the Role of Exposure to Violence and Violent Behavior on Initiation of Gun Carrying: A Longitudinal Test of Three Models of Youth Gun Carrying

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spano, Richard; Pridemore, William Alex; Bolland, John

2012-01-01

Two waves of longitudinal data from 1,049 African American youth living in extreme poverty are used to examine the impact of exposure to violence (Time 1) and violent behavior (Time 1) on first time gun carrying (Time 2). Multivariate logistic regression results indicate that (a) violent behavior (Time 1) increased the likelihood of initiation of…

Variability in winter climate and winter extremes reduces population growth of an alpine butterfly.

PubMed

Roland, Jens; Matter, Stephen F

2013-01-01

We examined the long-term, 15-year pattern of population change in a network of 21 Rocky Mountain populations of Parnassius smintheus butterflies in response to climatic variation. We found that winter values of the broadscale climate variable, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, were a strong predictor of annual population growth, much more so than were endogenous biotic factors related to population density. The relationship between PDO and population growth was nonlinear. Populations declined in years with extreme winter PDO values, when there were either extremely warm or extremely cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific relative to that in the western Pacific. Results suggest that more variable winters, and more frequent extremely cold or warm winters, will result in more frequent decline of these populations, a pattern exacerbated by the trend for increasingly variable winters seen over the past century.

Associations of occupational standing with musculoskeletal symptoms: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Coenen, Pieter; Willenberg, Lisa; Parry, Sharon; Shi, Joyce W; Romero, Lorena; Blackwood, Diana M; Maher, Christopher G; Healy, Genevieve N; Dunstan, David W; Straker, Leon M

2018-02-01

Given the high exposure to occupational standing in specific occupations, and recent initiatives to encourage intermittent standing among white-collar workers, a better understanding of the potential health consequences of occupational standing is required. We aimed to review and quantify the epidemiological evidence on associations of occupational standing with musculoskeletal symptoms. A systematic review was performed. Data from included articles were extracted and described, and meta-analyses conducted when data were sufficiently homogeneous. Electronic databases were systematically searched. Peer-reviewed articles on occupational standing and musculoskeletal symptoms from epidemiological studies were identified. Of the 11 750 articles screened, 50 articles reporting 49 studies were included (45 cross-sectional and 5 longitudinal; n=88 158 participants) describing the associations of occupational standing with musculoskeletal symptoms, including low-back (39 articles), lower extremity (14 articles) and upper extremity (18 articles) symptoms. In the meta-analysis, 'substantial' (>4 hours/workday) occupational standing was associated with the occurrence of low-back symptoms (pooled OR (95% CI) 1.31 (1.10 to 1.56)). Evidence on lower and upper extremity symptoms was too heterogeneous for meta-analyses. The majority of included studies reported statistically significant detrimental associations of occupational standing with lower extremity, but not with upper extremity symptoms. The evidence suggests that substantial occupational standing is associated with the occurrence of low-back and (inconclusively) lower extremity symptoms, but there may not be such an association with upper extremity symptoms. However, these conclusions are tentative as only limited evidence was found from high-quality, longitudinal studies with fully adjusted models using objective measures of standing. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

[Collagen-polyvinylpyrrolidone: a new therapeutic option for treatment of sequelae after radical mastectomy in women with breast cancer. Preliminary study].

PubMed

Ruiz-Eng, Rafael; Montiel-Jarquín, Alvaro; de la Rosa-Pérez, Raúl; López-Colombo, Aurelio; Gómez-Conde, Eduardo; Zamudio-Huerta, Leticia

2010-01-01

Approximately 30% of women who undergo mastectomy without reconstructive treatment due to breast cancer present sequelae. These include paresthesias, keloid healing, hypoesthesia, lymphedema and limitation of the function of the ipsilateral upper extremity. We undertook this study to present the results using collagen-polyvinylpyrrolidone (Clg- Pvp) as treatment for posmastectomy sequelae in women with breast cancer. We conducted a unicentric, longitudinal and prospective clinical trial between August 1, 2007 and July 31, 2008. Included variables were age, lymphedema, limitation of the function of the ipsilateral upper extremity, collapse of the wound, keloid healing, paresthesias, and appearance of the surgical area. The appearance of the surgical area (aesthetic aspect) was evaluated before and 6 months after treatment was initiated. Clg-Pvp was administered weekly for a 6-month period. Seven women were included with a median age of 49 years (range: 40-72 years). One patient (14.28%) presented lymphedema, two patients (28.57%) presented collapse of the wound, two patients (28.57%) had keloid healing, three patients (42.85%) experienced paresthesias, five patients (71.4%) reported pain, and five patients (71.4%) reported limitation of the function of the ipsilateral upper extremity. At the completion of the treatment, aesthetic improvement was statistically significant (p = 0.0020, Mann-Whitney U test). Clinical and aesthetic results are good after application of Clg-Pvp for treating sequelae in women with breast cancer who underwent mastectomy without reconstructive surgery.

Estimated injury risk for specific injuries and body regions in frontal motor vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Weaver, Ashley A; Talton, Jennifer W; Barnard, Ryan T; Schoell, Samantha L; Swett, Katrina R; Stitzel, Joel D

2015-01-01

Injury risk curves estimate motor vehicle crash (MVC) occupant injury risk from vehicle, crash, and/or occupant factors. Many vehicles are equipped with event data recorders (EDRs) that collect data including the crash speed and restraint status during a MVC. This study's goal was to use regulation-required data elements for EDRs to compute occupant injury risk for (1) specific injuries and (2) specific body regions in frontal MVCs from weighted NASS-CDS data. Logistic regression analysis of NASS-CDS single-impact frontal MVCs involving front seat occupants with frontal airbag deployment was used to produce 23 risk curves for specific injuries and 17 risk curves for Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ to 5+ body region injuries. Risk curves were produced for the following body regions: head and thorax (AIS 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+), face (AIS 2+), abdomen, spine, upper extremity, and lower extremity (AIS 2+, 3+). Injury risk with 95% confidence intervals was estimated for 15-105 km/h longitudinal delta-Vs and belt status was adjusted for as a covariate. Overall, belted occupants had lower estimated risks compared to unbelted occupants and the risk of injury increased as longitudinal delta-V increased. Belt status was a significant predictor for 13 specific injuries and all body region injuries with the exception of AIS 2+ and 3+ spine injuries. Specific injuries and body region injuries that occurred more frequently in NASS-CDS also tended to carry higher risks when evaluated at a 56 km/h longitudinal delta-V. In the belted population, injury risks that ranked in the top 33% included 4 upper extremity fractures (ulna, radius, clavicle, carpus/metacarpus), 2 lower extremity fractures (fibula, metatarsal/tarsal), and a knee sprain (2.4-4.6% risk). Unbelted injury risks ranked in the top 33% included 4 lower extremity fractures (femur, fibula, metatarsal/tarsal, patella), 2 head injuries with less than one hour or unspecified prior unconsciousness, and a lung contusion (4.6-9.9% risk). The 6 body region curves with the highest risks were for AIS 2+ lower extremity, upper extremity, thorax, and head injury and AIS 3+ lower extremity and thorax injury (15.9-43.8% risk). These injury risk curves can be implemented into advanced automatic crash notification (AACN) algorithms that utilize vehicle EDR measurements to predict occupant injury immediately following a MVC. Through integration with AACN, these injury risk curves can provide emergency medical services (EMS) and other patient care providers with information on suspected occupant injuries to improve injury detection and patient triage.

Assessment of Coastal and Urban Flooding Hazards Applying Extreme Value Analysis and Multivariate Statistical Techniques: A Case Study in Elwood, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rosbjerg, Dan; Madsen, Henrik

2016-04-01

Traditionally, flood risk assessment studies have been carried out from a univariate frequency analysis perspective. However, statistical dependence between hydrological variables, such as extreme rainfall and extreme sea surge, is plausible to exist, since both variables to some extent are driven by common meteorological conditions. Aiming to overcome this limitation, multivariate statistical techniques has the potential to combine different sources of flooding in the investigation. The aim of this study was to apply a range of statistical methodologies for analyzing combined extreme hydrological variables that can lead to coastal and urban flooding. The study area is the Elwood Catchment, which is a highly urbanized catchment located in the city of Port Phillip, Melbourne, Australia. The first part of the investigation dealt with the marginal extreme value distributions. Two approaches to extract extreme value series were applied (Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Series), and different probability distribution functions were fit to the observed sample. Results obtained by using the Generalized Pareto distribution demonstrate the ability of the Pareto family to model the extreme events. Advancing into multivariate extreme value analysis, first an investigation regarding the asymptotic properties of extremal dependence was carried out. As a weak positive asymptotic dependence between the bivariate extreme pairs was found, the Conditional method proposed by Heffernan and Tawn (2004) was chosen. This approach is suitable to model bivariate extreme values, which are relatively unlikely to occur together. The results show that the probability of an extreme sea surge occurring during a one-hour intensity extreme precipitation event (or vice versa) can be twice as great as what would occur when assuming independent events. Therefore, presuming independence between these two variables would result in severe underestimation of the flooding risk in the study area.

Statistical downscaling modeling with quantile regression using lasso to estimate extreme rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santri, Dewi; Wigena, Aji Hamim; Djuraidah, Anik

2016-02-01

Rainfall is one of the climatic elements with high diversity and has many negative impacts especially extreme rainfall. Therefore, there are several methods that required to minimize the damage that may occur. So far, Global circulation models (GCM) are the best method to forecast global climate changes include extreme rainfall. Statistical downscaling (SD) is a technique to develop the relationship between GCM output as a global-scale independent variables and rainfall as a local- scale response variable. Using GCM method will have many difficulties when assessed against observations because GCM has high dimension and multicollinearity between the variables. The common method that used to handle this problem is principal components analysis (PCA) and partial least squares regression. The new method that can be used is lasso. Lasso has advantages in simultaneuosly controlling the variance of the fitted coefficients and performing automatic variable selection. Quantile regression is a method that can be used to detect extreme rainfall in dry and wet extreme. Objective of this study is modeling SD using quantile regression with lasso to predict extreme rainfall in Indramayu. The results showed that the estimation of extreme rainfall (extreme wet in January, February and December) in Indramayu could be predicted properly by the model at quantile 90th.

Soft silicone rubber in phononic structures: Correct elastic moduli

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Still, Tim; Oudich, M.; Auerhammer, G. K.; Vlassopoulos, D.; Djafari-Rouhani, B.; Fytas, G.; Sheng, P.

2013-09-01

We report on a combination of experiments to determine the elastic moduli of a soft poly (dimethylsiloxane) rubber that was utilized in a smart experiment on resonant phononic modes [Liu , ScienceSCIEAS0036-807510.1126/science.289.5485.1734 289, 1734 (2000)] and whose reported moduli became widely used as a model system in theoretical calculations of phononic materials. We found that the most peculiar hallmark of these values, an extremely low longitudinal sound velocity, is not supported by our experiments. Anyhow, performing theoretical band structure calculations, we can reproduce the surprising experimental findings of Liu even utilizing the correct mechanical parameters. Thus, the physical conclusions derived in the theoretical works do not require the use of an extremely low longitudinal velocity, but can be reproduced assuming only a low value of the shear modulus, in agreement with our experiments.

Tying Variability in Summertime North American Extreme Weather Regimes to the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenney, A. M.; Randall, D. A.

2017-12-01

Tropical intraseasonal oscillations are known to be a source of extratropical variability. We show that subseasonal variability in observed North American epidemiologically significant regional extreme weather regimes is teleconnected to the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO)—a complex tropical weather system that is active during the northern summer and has a 30-50 day timescale. The dynamics of the teleconnection are examined. We also find that interannual variability of the tropical mean-state can modulate the teleconnection. Our results suggest that the BSISO may enable subseasonal to seasonal predictions of North American summertime weather extremes.

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmermann, N.E.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Edwards, T.C.; Meier, E.S.; Thuiller, W.; Guisan, Antoine; Schmatz, D.R.; Pearman, P.B.

2009-01-01

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D2, +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

Extreme Response Style and the Measurement of Intra-Individual Variability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deng, Sien

2017-01-01

Psychologists have become increasingly interested in the intra-individual variability of psychological measures as a meaningful distinguishing characteristic of persons. Assessments of intra-individual variability are frequently based on the repeated administration of self-report rating scale instruments, and extreme response style (ERS) has the…

Decreasing spatial variability in precipitation extremes in southwestern China and the local/large-scale influencing factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Meixian; Xu, Xianli; Sun, Alex

2015-07-01

Climate extremes can cause devastating damage to human society and ecosystems. Recent studies have drawn many conclusions about trends in climate extremes, but few have focused on quantitative analysis of their spatial variability and underlying mechanisms. By using the techniques of overlapping moving windows, the Mann-Kendall trend test, correlation, and stepwise regression, this study examined the spatial-temporal variation of precipitation extremes and investigated the potential key factors influencing this variation in southwestern (SW) China, a globally important biodiversity hot spot and climate-sensitive region. Results showed that the changing trends of precipitation extremes were not spatially uniform, but the spatial variability of these precipitation extremes decreased from 1959 to 2012. Further analysis found that atmospheric circulations rather than local factors (land cover, topographic conditions, etc.) were the main cause of such precipitation extremes. This study suggests that droughts or floods may become more homogenously widespread throughout SW China. Hence, region-wide assessments and coordination are needed to help mitigate the economic and ecological impacts.

Inferring Spatio-temporal Variations in the Risk of Extreme Precipitation in the Western United States from Tree-ring Chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Ho, M.; Cook, E. R.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

This work explores how extreme cold-season precipitation dynamics along the west coast of the United States have varied in the past under natural climate variability through an analysis of the moisture anomalies recorded by tree-ring chronologies across the coast and interior of the western U.S. Winters with high total precipitation amounts in the coastal regions are marked by a small number of extreme storms that exhibit distinct spatial patterns of precipitation across the coast and further inland. Building from this observation, this work develops a novel application of dendroclimatic evidence to explore the following questions: a) how is extreme precipitation variability expressed in a network of tree-ring chronologies; b) can this information provide insight on the space-time variability of storm tracks that cause these extreme events; and c) how can the joint variability of extreme precipitation and storm tracks be modeled to develop consistent, multi-centennial reconstructions of both? We use gridded, tree-ring based reconstructions of the summer Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) extending back 500 years within the western U.S. to build and test a novel statistical framework for reconstructing the space-time variability of coastal extreme precipitation and the associated wintertime storm tracks. Within this framework, we (1) identify joint modes of variability of extreme precipitation fields and tree-ring based PDSI reconstructions; (2) relate these modes to previously identified, unique storm track patterns associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are the dominant type of storm that is responsible for extreme precipitation in the region; and (3) determine latitudinal variations of landfalling ARs across the west coast and their relationship to the these joint modes. To our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to leverage information on storm track patterns stored in a network of paleoclimate proxies to improve reconstruction fidelity.

Inferring Spatio-temporal Variations in the Risk of Extreme Precipitation in the Western United States from Tree-ring Chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Ho, M.; Cook, E. R.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

This work explores how extreme cold-season precipitation dynamics along the west coast of the United States have varied in the past under natural climate variability through an analysis of the moisture anomalies recorded by tree-ring chronologies across the coast and interior of the western U.S. Winters with high total precipitation amounts in the coastal regions are marked by a small number of extreme storms that exhibit distinct spatial patterns of precipitation across the coast and further inland. Building from this observation, this work develops a novel application of dendroclimatic evidence to explore the following questions: a) how is extreme precipitation variability expressed in a network of tree-ring chronologies; b) can this information provide insight on the space-time variability of storm tracks that cause these extreme events; and c) how can the joint variability of extreme precipitation and storm tracks be modeled to develop consistent, multi-centennial reconstructions of both? We use gridded, tree-ring based reconstructions of the summer Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) extending back 500 years within the western U.S. to build and test a novel statistical framework for reconstructing the space-time variability of coastal extreme precipitation and the associated wintertime storm tracks. Within this framework, we (1) identify joint modes of variability of extreme precipitation fields and tree-ring based PDSI reconstructions; (2) relate these modes to previously identified, unique storm track patterns associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are the dominant type of storm that is responsible for extreme precipitation in the region; and (3) determine latitudinal variations of landfalling ARs across the west coast and their relationship to the these joint modes. To our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to leverage information on storm track patterns stored in a network of paleoclimate proxies to improve reconstruction fidelity.

Automation Rover for Extreme Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sauder, Jonathan; Hilgemann, Evan; Johnson, Michael; Parness, Aaron; Hall, Jeffrey; Kawata, Jessie; Stack, Kathryn

2017-01-01

Almost 2,300 years ago the ancient Greeks built the Antikythera automaton. This purely mechanical computer accurately predicted past and future astronomical events long before electronics existed1. Automata have been credibly used for hundreds of years as computers, art pieces, and clocks. However, in the past several decades automata have become less popular as the capabilities of electronics increased, leaving them an unexplored solution for robotic spacecraft. The Automaton Rover for Extreme Environments (AREE) proposes an exciting paradigm shift from electronics to a fully mechanical system, enabling longitudinal exploration of the most extreme environments within the solar system.

The Effects of Longitudinal Control-System Dynamics on Pilot Opinion and Response Characteristics as Determined from Flight Tests and from Ground Simulator Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sadoff, Melvin

1958-01-01

The results of a fixed-base simulator study of the effects of variable longitudinal control-system dynamics on pilot opinion are presented and compared with flight-test data. The control-system variables considered in this investigation included stick force per g, time constant, and dead-band, or stabilizer breakout force. In general, the fairly good correlation between flight and simulator results for two pilots demonstrates the validity of fixed-base simulator studies which are designed to complement and supplement flight studies and serve as a guide in control-system preliminary design. However, in the investigation of certain problem areas (e.g., sensitive control-system configurations associated with pilot- induced oscillations in flight), fixed-base simulator results did not predict the occurrence of an instability, although the pilots noted the system was extremely sensitive and unsatisfactory. If it is desired to predict pilot-induced-oscillation tendencies, tests in moving-base simulators may be required. It was found possible to represent the human pilot by a linear pilot analog for the tracking task assumed in the present study. The criterion used to adjust the pilot analog was the root-mean-square tracking error of one of the human pilots on the fixed-base simulator. Matching the tracking error of the pilot analog to that of the human pilot gave an approximation to the variation of human-pilot behavior over a range of control-system dynamics. Results of the pilot-analog study indicated that both for optimized control-system dynamics (for poor airplane dynamics) and for a region of good airplane dynamics, the pilot response characteristics are approximately the same.

Blood pressure response to patterns of weather fluctuations and effect on mortality.

PubMed

Aubinière-Robb, Louise; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Hastie, Claire E; Patel, Rajan K; McCallum, Linsay; Morrison, David; Walters, Matthew; Dawson, Jesse; Sloan, William; Muir, Scott; Dominiczak, Anna F; McInnes, Gordon T; Padmanabhan, Sandosh

2013-07-01

Very few studies have looked at longitudinal intraindividual blood pressure responses to weather conditions. There are no data to suggest that specific response to changes in weather will have an impact on survival. We analyzed >169 000 clinic visits of 16 010 Glasgow Blood Pressure Clinic patients with hypertension. Each clinic visit was mapped to the mean West of Scotland monthly weather (temperature, sunshine, rainfall) data. Percentage change in blood pressure was calculated between pairs of consecutive clinic visits, where the weather alternated between 2 extreme quartiles (Q(1)-Q(4) or Q(4)-Q(1)) or remained in the same quartile (Q(n)-Q(n)) of each weather parameter. Subjects were also categorized into 2 groups depending on whether their blood pressure response in Q(1)-Q(4) or Q(4)-Q(1) were concordant or discordant to Q(n)-Q(n). Generalized estimating equations and Cox proportional hazards model were used to model the effect on longitudinal blood pressure and mortality, respectively. Q(n)-Q(n) showed a mean 2% drop in blood pressure consistently, whereas Q(4)-Q(1) showed a mean 2.1% and 1.6% rise in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, respectively. However, Q(1)-Q(4) did not show significant changes in blood pressure. Temperature-sensitive subjects had significantly higher mortality (1.35 [95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.71]; P=0.01) and higher follow-up systolic blood pressure (1.85 [95% confidence interval, 0.24-3.46]; P=0.02) compared with temperature-nonsensitive subjects. Blood pressure response to temperature may be one of the underlying mechanisms that determine long-term blood pressure variability. Knowing a patient's blood pressure response to weather can help reduce unnecessary antihypertensive treatment modification, which may in turn increase blood pressure variability and, thus, risk.

About climate variabilitiy leading the hydric condition of the soil in the rainfed region of Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pántano, V. C.; Penalba, O. C.

2013-05-01

Extreme events of temperature and rainfall have a socio-economic impact in the rainfed agriculture production region in Argentina. The magnitude of the impact can be analyzed through the water balance which integrates the characteristics of the soil and climate conditions. Changes observed in climate variables during the last decades affected the components of the water balance. As a result, a displacement of the agriculture border towards the west was produced, improving the agricultural production of the region. The objective of this work is to analyze how the variability of rainfall and temperature leads the hydric condition of the soil, with special focus on extreme events. The hydric conditions of the soil (HC= Excess- Deficit) were estimated from the monthly water balance (Thornthwaite and Mather method, 1957), using monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) and monthly accumulated rainfall (R) for 33 stations (period 1970-2006). Information of temperature and rainfall was provided by National Weather Service and the effective capacity of soil water was considered from Forte Lay and Spescha (2001). An agricultural extreme condition occurs when soil moisture and rainfall are inadequate or excessive for the development of the crops. In this study, we define an extreme event when the variable is less (greater) than its 20% and 10% (80% and 90%) percentile. In order to evaluate how sensitive is the HC to water and heat stress in the region, different conditional probabilities were evaluated. There is a weaker response of HC to extreme low PET while extreme low R leads high values of HC. However, this behavior is not always observed, especially in the western region where extreme high and low PET show a stronger influence over the HC. Finally, to analyze the temporal variability of extreme PET and R, leading hydric condition of the soil, the number of stations presenting extreme conditions was computed for each month. As an example, interesting results were observed for April. During this month, the water recharge of the soil is crucial to let the winter crops manage with the scarce rainfalls occurring in the following months. In 1970, 1974, 1977, 1978 and 1997 more than 50% of the stations were under extreme high PET; while 1970, 1974, 1978 and 1988 presented more than 40% under extreme low R. Thus, the 70s was the more threatened decade of the period. Since the 80s (except for 1997), extreme dry events due to one variable or the other are mostly presented separately, over smaller areas. The response of the spatial distribution of HC is stronger when both variables present extreme conditions. In particular, during 1997 the region presents extreme low values of HC as a consequence of extreme low R and high PET. Communities dependent on agriculture are highly sensitive to climate variability and its extremes. In the studied region, it was shown that scarce water and heat stress contribute to the resulting hydric condition, producing strong impact over different productive activities. Extreme temperature seems to have a stronger influence over extreme unfavorable hydric conditions.

Longitudinal Variation of the Lunar Tide in the Equatorial Electrojet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, Yosuke; Stolle, Claudia; Matzka, Jürgen; Siddiqui, Tarique A.; Lühr, Hermann; Alken, Patrick

2017-12-01

The atmospheric lunar tide is one known source of ionospheric variability. The subject received renewed attention as recent studies found a link between stratospheric sudden warmings and amplified lunar tidal perturbations in the equatorial ionosphere. There is increasing evidence from ground observations that the lunar tidal influence on the ionosphere depends on longitude. We use magnetic field measurements from the CHAMP satellite during July 2000 to September 2010 and from the two Swarm satellites during November 2013 to February 2017 to determine, for the first time, the complete seasonal-longitudinal climatology of the semidiurnal lunar tidal variation in the equatorial electrojet intensity. Significant longitudinal variability is found in the amplitude of the lunar tidal variation, while the longitudinal variability in the phase is small. The amplitude peaks in the Peruvian sector (˜285°E) during the Northern Hemisphere winter and equinoxes, and in the Brazilian sector (˜325°E) during the Northern Hemisphere summer. There are also local amplitude maxima at ˜55°E and ˜120°E. The longitudinal variation is partly due to the modulation of ionospheric conductivities by the inhomogeneous geomagnetic field. Another possible cause of the longitudinal variability is neutral wind forcing by nonmigrating lunar tides. A tidal spectrum analysis of the semidiurnal lunar tidal variation in the equatorial electrojet reveals the dominance of the westward propagating mode with zonal wave number 2 (SW2), with secondary contributions by westward propagating modes with zonal wave numbers 3 (SW3) and 4 (SW4). Eastward propagating waves are largely absent from the tidal spectrum. Further study will be required for the relative importance of ionospheric conductivities and nonmigrating lunar tides.

Towards a Unified Framework in Hydroclimate Extremes Prediction in Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradkhani, H.; Yan, H.; Zarekarizi, M.; Bracken, C.

2016-12-01

Spatio-temporal analysis and prediction of hydroclimate extremes are of paramount importance in disaster mitigation and emergency management. The IPCC special report on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters emphasizes that the global warming would change the frequency, severity, and spatial pattern of extremes. In addition to climate change, land use and land cover changes also influence the extreme characteristics at regional scale. Therefore, natural variability and anthropogenic changes to the hydroclimate system result in nonstationarity in hydroclimate variables. In this presentation recent advancements in developing and using Bayesian approaches to account for non-stationarity in hydroclimate extremes are discussed. Also, implications of these approaches in flood frequency analysis, treatment of spatial dependence, the impact of large-scale climate variability, the selection of cause-effect covariates, with quantification of model errors in extreme prediction is explained. Within this framework, the applicability and usefulness of the ensemble data assimilation for extreme flood predictions is also introduced. Finally, a practical and easy to use approach for better communication with decision-makers and emergency managers is presented.

Sea shell solar collector

DOEpatents

Rabl, Ari

1976-01-01

A device is provided for the collection and concentration of solar radiant energy including a longitudinally extending structure having a wall for directing radiant energy. The wall is parabolic with its focus along a line parallel to an extreme ray of the sun at one solstice and with its axis along a line parallel to an extreme ray of the sun at the other solstice. An energy absorber is positioned to receive the solar energy thereby collected.

Comparison of CTT and Rasch-based approaches for the analysis of longitudinal Patient Reported Outcomes.

PubMed

Blanchin, Myriam; Hardouin, Jean-Benoit; Le Neel, Tanguy; Kubis, Gildas; Blanchard, Claire; Mirallié, Eric; Sébille, Véronique

2011-04-15

Health sciences frequently deal with Patient Reported Outcomes (PRO) data for the evaluation of concepts, in particular health-related quality of life, which cannot be directly measured and are often called latent variables. Two approaches are commonly used for the analysis of such data: Classical Test Theory (CTT) and Item Response Theory (IRT). Longitudinal data are often collected to analyze the evolution of an outcome over time. The most adequate strategy to analyze longitudinal latent variables, which can be either based on CTT or IRT models, remains to be identified. This strategy must take into account the latent characteristic of what PROs are intended to measure as well as the specificity of longitudinal designs. A simple and widely used IRT model is the Rasch model. The purpose of our study was to compare CTT and Rasch-based approaches to analyze longitudinal PRO data regarding type I error, power, and time effect estimation bias. Four methods were compared: the Score and Mixed models (SM) method based on the CTT approach, the Rasch and Mixed models (RM), the Plausible Values (PV), and the Longitudinal Rasch model (LRM) methods all based on the Rasch model. All methods have shown comparable results in terms of type I error, all close to 5 per cent. LRM and SM methods presented comparable power and unbiased time effect estimations, whereas RM and PV methods showed low power and biased time effect estimations. This suggests that RM and PV methods should be avoided to analyze longitudinal latent variables. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of poverty on academic failure and delinquency in boys: a change and process model approach.

PubMed

Pagani, L; Boulerice, B; Vitaro, F; Tremblay, R E

1999-11-01

Using data from the Montreal Longitudinal-Experimental Study, we examined the impact of poverty (and its correlate, family configuration status) on academic placement and self-reported delinquency in boys at age 16. We then investigated whether the relation between family economic hardship and antisocial behaviour is direct or indirect by considering the value of parenting practices and academic failure as process variables in the model. Data included official records, and parent, teacher, and self-reports. The temporal intensity of poverty was classified into five categories: never-poor; always-poor; poor-earlier; poor-later; and transitory-poverty. Family configuration status was classified by both temporal characteristics and number of marital transitions: intact-family; short-term-single; long-term-single; short-term-remarried; long-term-remarried; and multiple-marital-transitions. Results revealed that when maternal education and early childhood behaviour were controlled, poverty had an effect on both academic failure and extreme delinquency. This effect was independent of family configuration status. Although they both significantly predicted extreme delinquency on their own, academic failure and parental supervision did not mediate the relationship between poverty and delinquency. Divorce increased the risk of theft and fighting at age 16, regardless of financial hardship. Parental supervision only helped explain the effects of divorce on boys' fighting.

Reducing Bias Due to Systematic Attrition in Longitudinal Studies: The Benefits of Multiple Imputation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asendorpf, Jens B.; van de Schoot, Rens; Denissen, Jaap J. A.; Hutteman, Roos

2014-01-01

Most longitudinal studies are plagued by drop-out related to variables at earlier assessments (systematic attrition). Although systematic attrition is often analysed in longitudinal studies, surprisingly few researchers attempt to reduce biases due to systematic attrition, even though this is possible and nowadays technically easy. This is…

Performance variability is related to change in cognition: evidence from the Victoria Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

MacDonald, Stuart W S; Hultsch, David F; Dixon, Roger A

2003-09-01

Performance variability across repeated task administrations may be an important indicator of age-related cognitive functioning. In the present investigation, the authors examined whether age differences and change in inconsistency were related to 6-year (3 occasion) cognitive change. Inconsistency scores were computed from 4 reaction time tasks performed by 446 older adults (54-89 years). Replicating previous cross-sectional results, greater inconsistency was observed for older participants even after controlling for differences in response speed. New longitudinal results demonstrated (a) associations between inconsistency at baseline measurement and 6-year change in cognitive performance; (b) longitudinal change in inconsistency; and (c) intraindividual covariation between 6-year change in inconsistency and 6-year change in level of cognitive function. These findings support the view that performance variability serves as a marker of cognitive aging.

Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2016-04-01

Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

Obesity and mobility disability in the older adult.

PubMed

Vincent, H K; Vincent, K R; Lamb, K M

2010-08-01

Mobility disability is becoming prevalent in the obese older population (> or = 60 years of age). We included a total of 13 cross-sectional and 15 longitudinal studies based on actual physical assessments of mobility in the obese older population in this review. We systematically examined existing evidence of which adiposity estimate best predicted mobility disability. Cross-sectional studies (82-4000 participants) showed poorer lower extremity mobility with increasing obesity severity in both men and women. All longitudinal studies (1-22 years) except for one, reported relationships between adiposity and declining mobility. While different physical tests made interpretation challenging, a consistent finding was that walking, stair climbing and chair rise ability were compromised with obesity, especially if the body mass index (BMI) exceeded 35 kg m(-2). More studies found that obese women were at an increased risk for mobility impairment than men. Existing evidence suggests that BMI and waist circumference are emerging as the more consistent predictors of the onset or worsening of mobility disability. Limited interventional evidence shows that weight loss is related with increased mobility and lower extremity function. Additional longitudinal studies are warranted that address overall body composition fat and muscle mass or change on future disability.

Changing Pattern of Indian Monsoon Extremes: Global and Local Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Subimal; Shastri, Hiteshri; Pathak, Amey; Paul, Supantha

2017-04-01

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) extremes have remained a major topic of discussion in the field of global change and hydro-climatology over the last decade. This attributes to multiple conclusions on changing pattern of extremes along with poor understanding of multiple processes at global and local scales associated with monsoon extremes. At a spatially aggregate scale, when number of extremes in the grids are summed over, a statistically significant increasing trend is observed for both Central India (Goswami et al., 2006) and all India (Rajeevan et al., 2008). However, such a result over Central India does not satisfy flied significance test of increase and no decrease (Krishnamurthy et al., 2009). Statistically rigorous extreme value analysis that deals with the tail of the distribution reveals a spatially non-uniform trend of extremes over India (Ghosh et al., 2012). This results into statistically significant increasing trend of spatial variability. Such an increase of spatial variability points to the importance of local factors such as deforestation and urbanization. We hypothesize that increase of spatial average of extremes is associated with the increase of events occurring over large region, while increase in spatial variability attributes to local factors. A Lagrangian approach based dynamic recycling model reveals that the major contributor of moisture to wide spread extremes is Western Indian Ocean, while land surface also contributes around 25-30% of moisture during the extremes in Central India. We further test the impacts of local urbanization on extremes and find the impacts are more visible over West central, Southern and North East India. Regional atmospheric simulations coupled with Urban Canopy Model (UCM) shows that urbanization intensifies extremes in city areas, but not uniformly all over the city. The intensification occurs over specific pockets of the urban region, resulting an increase in spatial variability even within the city. This also points to the need of setting up multiple weather stations over the city at a finer resolution for better understanding of urban extremes. We conclude that the conventional method of considering large scale factors is not sufficient for analysing the monsoon extremes and characterization of the same needs a blending of both global and local factors. Ghosh, S., Das, D., Kao, S-C. & Ganguly, A. R. Lack of uniform trends but increasing spatial variability in observed Indian rainfall extremes. Nature Clim. Change 2, 86-91 (2012) Goswami, B. N., Venugopal, V., Sengupta, D., Madhusoodanan, M. S. & Xavier, P. K. Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science 314, 1442-1445 (2006). Krishnamurthy, C. K. B., Lall, U. & Kwon, H-H. Changing frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes over India from 1951 to 2003. J. Clim. 22, 4737-4746 (2009). Rajeevan, M., Bhate, J. & Jaswal, A. K. Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L18707 (2008).

Longitudinal variability of complexities associated with equatorial electrojet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabiu, A. B.; Ogunjo, S. T.; Fuwape, I. A.

2017-12-01

Equatorial electrojet indices obtained from ground based magnetometers at 6 representative stations across the magnetic equatorial belt for the year 2009 (mean annual sunspot number Rz = 3.1) were treated to nonlinear time series analysis technique to ascertain the longitudinal dependence of the chaos/complexities associated with the phenomena. The selected stations were along the magnetic equator in the South American (Huancayo, dip latitude -1.80°), African (Ilorin, dip latitude -1.82°; Addis Ababa, dip latitude - 0.18°), and Philippine (Langkawi, dip latitude -2.32°; Davao, dip latitude -1.02°; Yap, dip latitude -1.49°) sectors. The non-linear quantifiers engaged in this work include: Recurrence rate, determinism, diagonal line length, entropy, laminarity, Tsallis entropy, Lyapunov exponent and correlation dimension. Ordinarily the EEJ was found to undergo variability from one longitudinal representative station to another, with the strongest EEJ of about 192.5 nT at the South American axis at Huancayo. The degree of complexity in the EEJ was found to vary qualitatively from one sector to another. Probable physical mechanisms responsible for longitudinal variability of EEJ strength and its complexities were highlighted.

A Study of Mathematics and Science Achievement Scores among African American Students and the Impact of Teacher-Oriented Variables on Them through the Educational Longitudinal Study, 2002 (ELS: 2002) Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker, Valentine

2011-01-01

The purpose of this dissertation was to utilize the ELS: 2002 longitudinal data to highlight the achievement of African American students relative to other racial sub-groups in mathematics and science and to highlight teacher oriented variables that might influence their achievement. Various statistical tools, including descriptive statistics,…

Motivational and neurocognitive deficits are central to the prediction of longitudinal functional outcome in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Fervaha, G; Foussias, G; Agid, O; Remington, G

2014-10-01

Functional impairment is characteristic of most individuals with schizophrenia; however, the key variables that undermine community functioning are not well understood. This study evaluated the association between selected clinical variables and one-year longitudinal functional outcomes in patients with schizophrenia. The sample included 754 patients with schizophrenia who completed both baseline and one-year follow-up visits in the CATIE study. Patients were evaluated with a comprehensive battery of assessments capturing symptom severity and cognitive performance among other variables. The primary outcome variable was functional status one-year postbaseline measured using the Heinrichs-Carpenter Quality of Life Scale. Factor analysis of negative symptom items revealed two factors reflecting diminished expression and amotivation. Multivariate regression modeling revealed several significant independent predictors of longitudinal functioning scores. The strongest predictors were baseline amotivation and neurocognition. Both amotivation and neurocognition also had independent predictive value for each of the domains of functioning assessed (e.g., vocational). Both motivational and neurocognitive deficits independently contribute to longitudinal functional outcomes assessed 1 year later among patients with schizophrenia. Both of these domains of psychopathology impede functional recovery; hence, it follows that treatments ameliorating each of these symptoms should promote community functioning among individuals with schizophrenia. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Echocardiographic assessments of longitudinal left ventricular function in healthy English Springer spaniels.

PubMed

Dickson, D; Shave, R; Rishniw, M; Patteson, M

2017-08-01

To establish reference intervals for echocardiographic measures of longitudinal left ventricular function in adult English Springer spaniel (ESS) dogs. This study involved 42 healthy adult ESS. Animals were prospectively recruited from a general practice population in the United Kingdom. Dogs were examined twice, at least 12 months apart, to exclude dogs with progressive cardiac disease. Mitral annular plane systolic excursion, tissue Doppler imaging mitral annular velocities and two-dimensional speckle-tracking echocardiographic left ventricular longitudinal strain and strain rate were measured. Intraoperator and intraobserver variability were examined and reference intervals were calculated. The potential effects of body weight, age and heart rate on these variables were examined. Intraoperator and intraobserver variability was <10% for all parameters except tissue Doppler imaging E' (the peak velocity of early diastolic mitral annular motion as determined by pulsed wave Doppler) and two-dimensional speckle-tracking echocardiographic variables, which were all <20%. Thirty-nine dogs were used to create reference intervals. Significant (but mostly weak) effects of age, heart rate and body weight on were detected. Reference intervals were similar to previously published values in different breeds. Breed specific reference intervals for measures of longitudinal left ventricular function in the ESS are presented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal Differences in the Low-latitude Ionosphere and in the Ionospheric Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goncharenko, L. P.; Zhang, S.; Liu, H.; Tsugawa, T.; Batista, I. S.; Reinisch, B. W.

2017-12-01

Analysis of longitudinal differences in ionospheric parameters can illuminate variety of mechanisms responsible for ionospheric variability. In this study, we aim to 1) quantitatively describe major features of longitudinal differences in peak electron density in the low-latitude ionosphere; 2) examine differences in ionospheric variability at different longitude sectors, and 3) illustrate longitudinal differences in ionospheric response to a large disturbance event, sudden stratospheric warming of 2016. We examine NmF2 observations by a network of ionosondes in the American (30-80W) and Asian (110-170E) longitudinal sectors. Selected instruments are located in the vicinity of EIA troughs (Jicamarca, Sao Luis, Guam, Kwajalein), northern and southern crests of EIA (Boa Vista, Tucuman, Cachoeira Paulista, Okinawa), and beyond EIA crests (Ramey, Yamagawa, Kokubunji). To examine main ionospheric features at each location, we use long-term datasets collected at each site to construct empirical models that describe variations in NmF2 as a function of local time, season, solar flux, and geomagnetic activity. This set of empirical models can be used to accurately describe background ionospheric behavior and serve as a set of observational benchmarks for global circulation models. It reveals, for example, higher NmF2 in the EIA trough in the Asian sector as compared to the American sector. Further, we quantitatively describe variability in NmF2 as a difference between local observations and local empirical model, and find that American sector's EIA trough has overall higher variability that maximizes for all local times during wintertime, while Asian sector trough variability does not change significantly with season. Additionally, local empirical models are used to isolate ionospheric features resulting from dynamical disturbances of different origin (e.g. geomagnetic storms, convective activity, sudden stratospheric warming events, etc.). We illustrate this approach with the case of sudden stratospheric warming of 2016.

Quantifying Emergency Department Visits From Sport and Recreation: Focus on the Lower Extremity and Knee, 1997–2009

PubMed Central

Tenan, Matthew S.

2016-01-01

Context:  Few authors have reported nationally representative data on the number of sport and recreation (SR) injuries resulting in emergency department (ED) visitation. The existing studies have only provided 1 or 2 years of data and are not longitudinal in nature. Objective:  To use a novel algorithmic approach to determine if ED visitation is due to SR, resulting in a substantially larger longitudinal dataset. Design:  Descriptive epidemiology study. Setting:  Hospital. Patients or Other Participants:  The National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, a stratified random-sample survey of US hospital EDs was combined for years 1997–2009. There were 15 699 unweighted patient visits determined to be from SR. Main Outcome Measure(s):  A custom algorithm classified SR visits based on the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification E-code and pattern recognition of narrative text. Sport and recreation visits were assessed by age and categorized according to broad injury classifications. Additional quantification was performed on SR visits for lower extremity and knee-specific injuries. Sample weights were applied to provide national annual estimates. Results:  Annually, 4 243 000 ED visits resulted from SR. The largest classification of injury from SR was sprains and strains (896 000/y). Males had substantially more SR-related ED visits than females (2 929 000/y versus 1 314 000/y). For patients 10–49 years old, 1 093 000 lower extremity and 169 000 knee-specific injury visits annually were from SR. For both injury types, males had a higher rate of ED visitation; however, females had 25% and 39% greater odds of visitation for lower extremity and knee-specific injury, respectively. Conclusions:  The burden on the health system of ED visits from SR was substantial. Males presented in the ED at a higher rate for SR injury, though females had a higher proportion of lower extremity and knee-specific injury ED visitations from SR. This longitudinal analysis of population-level data provides the information to target research on specific subpopulations to mitigate SR injury. PMID:27075528

The impact of sedimentary anisotropy on solute mixing in stacked scour-pool structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Jeremy P.; Haslauer, Claus P.; Cirpka, Olaf A.

2017-04-01

The spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity is known to have a strong impact on solute spreading and mixing. In most investigations, its local anisotropy has been neglected. Recent studies have shown that spatially varying orientation in sedimentary anisotropy can lead to twisting flow enhancing transverse mixing, but most of these studies used geologically implausible geometries. We use an object-based approach to generate stacked scour-pool structures with either isotropic or anisotropic filling which are typically reported in glacial outwash deposits. We analyze how spatially variable isotropic conductivity and variation of internal anisotropy in these features impacts transverse plume deformation and both longitudinal and transverse spreading and mixing. In five test cases, either the scalar values of conductivity or the spatial orientation of its anisotropy is varied between the scour-pool structures. Based on 100 random configurations, we compare the variability of velocity components, stretching and folding metrics, advective travel-time distributions, one and two-particle statistics in advective-dispersive transport, and the flux-related dilution indices for steady state advective-dispersive transport among the five test cases. Variation in the orientation of internal anisotropy causes strong variability in the lateral velocity components, which leads to deformation in transverse directions and enhances transverse mixing, whereas it hardly affects the variability of the longitudinal velocity component and thus longitudinal spreading and mixing. The latter is controlled by the spatial variability in the scalar values of hydraulic conductivity. Our results demonstrate that sedimentary anisotropy is important for transverse mixing, whereas it may be neglected when considering longitudinal spreading and mixing.

EFFECT OF INTENSE FUNCTIONAL TASK TRAINING UPON TEMPORAL STRUCTURE OF VARIABILITY OF UPPER EXTREMITY POST STROKE

PubMed Central

Sethi, Amit; Davis, Sandra; McGuirk, Theresa; Patterson, Tara S.; Richards, Lorie G.

2012-01-01

Study Design Quasi-experimental design Introduction Although the effectiveness of constraint induced movement therapy (CIMT) in upper extremity (UE) rehabilitation post stroke is well known, the efficacy of CIMT to enhance the temporal structure of variability in upper extremity movement is not known. Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate whether CIMT could enhance temporal structure of variability in upper extremity movement in individuals with chronic stroke. Methods Six participants with chronic stroke underwent CIMT for 4 hours/day for 2 weeks. Participants performed three trials of functional reach-to-grasp before and after CIMT. Temporal structure of variability was determined by calculating approximate entropy (ApEn) in shoulder, elbow and wrist flexion/extension joint angles. Results ApEn increased post CIMT, however, statistical significance was not achieved (p > 0.0167). Conclusion Future studies with larger sample size are warranted to investigate the effect of CIMT upon temporal structure of variability in UE movement. PMID:23084461

Extremely large magnetoresistance in a high-quality WTe2 grown by flux method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsumura, K.; Yano, R.; Kashiwaya, H.; Koyanagi, M.; Masubuchi, S.; Machida, T.; Namiki, H.; Sasagawa, T.; Kashiwaya, S.

2018-03-01

We have grown single crystals of WTe2 by a self-flux method and evaluated the quality of the crystals. A Hall bar-type device was fabricated from an as-exfoliated film on a Si substrate and longitudinal resistance Rxx was measured. Rxx increased with an applied perpendicular magnetic field without saturation and an extremely large magnetoresistance as high as 376,059 % was observed at 8.27 T and 1.7 K.

Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset.

Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

2015-01-01

Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

Cognitive-Motor Interference on Upper Extremity Motor Performance in a Robot-Assisted Planar Reaching Task Among Patients With Stroke.

PubMed

Shin, Joon-Ho; Park, Gyulee; Cho, Duk Youn

2017-04-01

To explore motor performance on 2 different cognitive tasks during robotic rehabilitation in which motor performance was longitudinally assessed. Prospective study. Rehabilitation hospital. Patients (N=22) with chronic stroke and upper extremity impairment. A total of 640 repetitions of robot-assisted planar reaching, 5 times a week for 4 weeks. Longitudinal robotic evaluations regarding motor performance included smoothness, mean velocity, path error, and reach error by the type of cognitive task. Dual-task effects (DTEs) of motor performance were computed to analyze the effect of the cognitive task on dual-task interference. Cognitive task type influenced smoothness (P=.006), the DTEs of smoothness (P=.002), and the DTEs of reach error (P=.052). Robotic rehabilitation improved smoothness (P=.007) and reach error (P=.078), while stroke severity affected smoothness (P=.01), reach error (P<.001), and path error (P=.01). Robotic rehabilitation or severity did not affect the DTEs of motor performance. The results provide evidence for the effect of cognitive-motor interference on upper extremity performance among participants with stroke using a robotic-guided rehabilitation system. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

2010-01-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is under-estimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.

Recovery-related indicators of motor network plasticity according to impairment severity after stroke.

PubMed

Lee, J; Park, E; Lee, A; Chang, W H; Kim, D-S; Kim, Y-H

2017-10-01

Brain connectivity analysis has been widely used to investigate brain plasticity and recovery-related indicators of patients with stroke. However, results remain controversial because of interindividual variability of initial impairment and subsequent recovery of function. In this study, we aimed to investigate the differences in network plasticity and motor recovery-related indicators according to initial severity. We divided participants (16 males and 14 females, aged 54.2 ± 12.0 years) into groups of different severity by Fugl-Mayer Assessment score, i.e. moderate (50-84), severe (20-49) and extremely severe (<20) impairment groups. Longitudinal resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data were acquired at 2 weeks and 3 months after onset. The differences in network plasticity and recovery-related indicators between groups were investigated using network distance and graph measurements. As the level of impairment increased, the network balance was more disrupted. Network balance, interhemispheric connectivity and network efficiency were recovered at 3 months only in the moderate impairment group. However, this was not the case in the extremely severe impairment group. A single connection strength between the ipsilesional primary motor cortex and ventral premotor cortex was implicated in the recovery of motor function for the extremely severe impairment group. The connections of the ipsilesional primary motor cortex-ventral premotor cortex were positively associated with motor recovery as the patients were more severely impaired. Differences in plasticity and recovery-related indicators of motor networks were noted according to impairment severity. Our results may suggest meaningful implications for recovery prediction and treatment strategies in future stroke research. © 2017 EAN.

Variable depth core sampler

DOEpatents

Bourgeois, Peter M.; Reger, Robert J.

1996-01-01

A variable depth core sampler apparatus comprising a first circular hole saw member, having longitudinal sections that collapses to form a point and capture a sample, and a second circular hole saw member residing inside said first hole saw member to support the longitudinal sections of said first hole saw member and prevent them from collapsing to form a point. The second hole saw member may be raised and lowered inside said first hole saw member.

Genetic Predictors of Susceptibility to Cutaneous Fungal Infections: a pilot Genome Wide Association Study to Refine a Candidate Gene Search

PubMed Central

Abdel-Rahman, Susan M.; Preuett, Barry L.

2012-01-01

Background Trichophyton tonsurans is the foremost fungal pathogen of minority children in the U.S. Despite overwhelming infection rates, it does not appear that this fungus infects children in a non-specific manner. Objective This study was designed to identify genes that may predispose or protect a child from T. tonsurans infection. Methods Children participating in an earlier longitudinal study wherein infection rates could be reliably determined were eligible for inclusion. DNA from a subset (n=40) of these children at the population extremes underwent whole genome genotyping (WGG). Allele frequencies between cases and controls were examined and significant SNPs were used to develop a candidate gene list for which the remainder of the cohort (n=115) were genotyped. Cumulative infection rate was examined by genotype and the ability of selected genotypes to predict the likelihood of infection explored by multivariable analysis. Results 23 genes with a putative mechanistic role in cutaneous infection were selected for evaluation. Of these, 21 demonstrated significant differences in infection rate between genotypes. A risk index assigned to genotypes in the 21 genes accounted for over 60% of the variability observed in infection rate (adjusted r2=0.665, p<0.001). Among these, 8 appeared to account for the majority of variability that was observed (r2=0.603, p<0.001). These included genes involved in: leukocyte activation and migration, extracellular matrix integrity and remodeling, epidermal maintenance and wound repair, and cutaneous permeability. Conclusions Applying WGG to individuals at the extremes of phenotype can help to guide the selection of candidate genes in populations of small cohorts where disease etiology is likely polygenic in nature. PMID:22704677

Physical complications in acute lung injury survivors: a two-year longitudinal prospective study.

PubMed

Fan, Eddy; Dowdy, David W; Colantuoni, Elizabeth; Mendez-Tellez, Pedro A; Sevransky, Jonathan E; Shanholtz, Carl; Himmelfarb, Cheryl R Dennison; Desai, Sanjay V; Ciesla, Nancy; Herridge, Margaret S; Pronovost, Peter J; Needham, Dale M

2014-04-01

Survivors of severe critical illness frequently develop substantial and persistent physical complications, including muscle weakness, impaired physical function, and decreased health-related quality of life. Our objective was to determine the longitudinal epidemiology of muscle weakness, physical function, and health-related quality of life and their associations with critical illness and ICU exposures. A multisite prospective study with longitudinal follow-up at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after acute lung injury. Thirteen ICUs from four academic teaching hospitals. Two hundred twenty-two survivors of acute lung injury. None. At each time point, patients underwent standardized clinical evaluations of extremity, hand grip, and respiratory muscle strength; anthropometrics (height, weight, mid-arm circumference, and triceps skin fold thickness); 6-minute walk distance, and the Medical Outcomes Short-Form 36 health-related quality of life survey. During their hospitalization, survivors also had detailed daily evaluation of critical illness and related treatment variables. Over one third of survivors had objective evidence of muscle weakness at hospital discharge, with most improving within 12 months. This weakness was associated with substantial impairments in physical function and health-related quality of life that persisted at 24 months. The duration of bed rest during critical illness was consistently associated with weakness throughout 24-month follow-up. The cumulative dose of systematic corticosteroids and use of neuromuscular blockers in the ICU were not associated with weakness. Muscle weakness is common after acute lung injury, usually recovering within 12 months. This weakness is associated with substantial impairments in physical function and health-related quality of life that continue beyond 24 months. These results provide valuable prognostic information regarding physical recovery after acute lung injury. Evidence-based methods to reduce the duration of bed rest during critical illness may be important for improving these long-term impairments.

The Microphysical Structure of Extreme Precipitation as Inferred from Ground-Based Raindrop Spectra.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uijlenhoet, Remko; Smith, James A.; Steiner, Matthias

2003-05-01

The controls on the variability of raindrop size distributions in extreme rainfall and the associated radar reflectivity-rain rate relationships are studied using a scaling-law formalism for the description of raindrop size distributions and their properties. This scaling-law formalism enables a separation of the effects of changes in the scale of the raindrop size distribution from those in its shape. Parameters controlling the scale and shape of the scaled raindrop size distribution may be related to the microphysical processes generating extreme rainfall. A global scaling analysis of raindrop size distributions corresponding to rain rates exceeding 100 mm h1, collected during the 1950s with the Illinois State Water Survey raindrop camera in Miami, Florida, reveals that extreme rain rates tend to be associated with conditions in which the variability of the raindrop size distribution is strongly number controlled (i.e., characteristic drop sizes are roughly constant). This means that changes in properties of raindrop size distributions in extreme rainfall are largely produced by varying raindrop concentrations. As a result, rainfall integral variables (such as radar reflectivity and rain rate) are roughly proportional to each other, which is consistent with the concept of the so-called equilibrium raindrop size distribution and has profound implications for radar measurement of extreme rainfall. A time series analysis for two contrasting extreme rainfall events supports the hypothesis that the variability of raindrop size distributions for extreme rain rates is strongly number controlled. However, this analysis also reveals that the actual shapes of the (measured and scaled) spectra may differ significantly from storm to storm. This implies that the exponents of power-law radar reflectivity-rain rate relationships may be similar, and close to unity, for different extreme rainfall events, but their prefactors may differ substantially. Consequently, there is no unique radar reflectivity-rain rate relationship for extreme rain rates, but the variability is essentially reduced to one free parameter (i.e., the prefactor). It is suggested that this free parameter may be estimated on the basis of differential reflectivity measurements in extreme rainfall.

The role of climate variability in extreme floods in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip J.

2017-04-01

Between 1980 and 2015, Europe experienced 18% of worldwide weather-related loss events, which accounted for over US500 billion in damage. Consequently, it is urgent to further develop adaptation strategies to mitigate the consequences of weather-related disasters, such as floods. Europe's capability to prepare for such disasters is challenged by a large range of uncertainties and a limited understanding of the driving forces of hydrometeorological hazards. One of the major sources of uncertainty is the relationship between climate variability and weather-related losses. Previous studies show that climate variability drives temporal changes in hydrometereological variables in Europe. However, their influence on flood risk has received little attention. We investigated the influence of the positive and negative phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Arctic Oscillation (AO), on the seasonal frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall, and anomalies in flood occurrence and damage compared to the neutral phases of the indices of climate variability. Using statistical methods to analyze relationships between the indices of climate variability and four indicators of flooding, we found that positive and negative phases of NAO and AO are associated with more (or less) frequent and intense seasonal extreme rainfall over large areas of Europe. The relationship between ENSO and both the occurrence of extreme rainfall and intensity of extreme rainfall in Europe is much smaller than the relationship with NAO or AO, but still significant in some regions. We observe that flood damage and flood occurrence have strong links with climate variability, especially in southern and eastern Europe. Therefore, when investigating flooding across Europe, all three indices of climate variability should be considered. Seasonal forecasting of flooding could be enhanced by the inclusion of climate variability indicators .

A comparison of multiple imputation methods for handling missing values in longitudinal data in the presence of a time-varying covariate with a non-linear association with time: a simulation study.

PubMed

De Silva, Anurika Priyanjali; Moreno-Betancur, Margarita; De Livera, Alysha Madhu; Lee, Katherine Jane; Simpson, Julie Anne

2017-07-25

Missing data is a common problem in epidemiological studies, and is particularly prominent in longitudinal data, which involve multiple waves of data collection. Traditional multiple imputation (MI) methods (fully conditional specification (FCS) and multivariate normal imputation (MVNI)) treat repeated measurements of the same time-dependent variable as just another 'distinct' variable for imputation and therefore do not make the most of the longitudinal structure of the data. Only a few studies have explored extensions to the standard approaches to account for the temporal structure of longitudinal data. One suggestion is the two-fold fully conditional specification (two-fold FCS) algorithm, which restricts the imputation of a time-dependent variable to time blocks where the imputation model includes measurements taken at the specified and adjacent times. To date, no study has investigated the performance of two-fold FCS and standard MI methods for handling missing data in a time-varying covariate with a non-linear trajectory over time - a commonly encountered scenario in epidemiological studies. We simulated 1000 datasets of 5000 individuals based on the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). Three missing data mechanisms: missing completely at random (MCAR), and a weak and a strong missing at random (MAR) scenarios were used to impose missingness on body mass index (BMI) for age z-scores; a continuous time-varying exposure variable with a non-linear trajectory over time. We evaluated the performance of FCS, MVNI, and two-fold FCS for handling up to 50% of missing data when assessing the association between childhood obesity and sleep problems. The standard two-fold FCS produced slightly more biased and less precise estimates than FCS and MVNI. We observed slight improvements in bias and precision when using a time window width of two for the two-fold FCS algorithm compared to the standard width of one. We recommend the use of FCS or MVNI in a similar longitudinal setting, and when encountering convergence issues due to a large number of time points or variables with missing values, the two-fold FCS with exploration of a suitable time window.

A Primer on Longitudinal Data Analysis in Education. Technical Report #1320

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nese, Joseph F. T.; Lai, Cheng-Fei; Anderson, Daniel

2013-01-01

Longitudinal data analysis in education is the study growth over time. A longitudinal study is one in which repeated observations of the same variables are recorded for the same individuals over a period of time. This type of research is known by many names (e.g., time series analysis or repeated measures design), each of which can imply subtle…

Longitudinal multiple imputation approaches for body mass index or other variables with very low individual-level variability: the mibmi command in Stata.

PubMed

Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Parisi, Rosa; Springate, David A; Reeves, David

2017-01-13

In modern health care systems, the computerization of all aspects of clinical care has led to the development of large data repositories. For example, in the UK, large primary care databases hold millions of electronic medical records, with detailed information on diagnoses, treatments, outcomes and consultations. Careful analyses of these observational datasets of routinely collected data can complement evidence from clinical trials or even answer research questions that cannot been addressed in an experimental setting. However, 'missingness' is a common problem for routinely collected data, especially for biological parameters over time. Absence of complete data for the whole of a individual's study period is a potential bias risk and standard complete-case approaches may lead to biased estimates. However, the structure of the data values makes standard cross-sectional multiple-imputation approaches unsuitable. In this paper we propose and evaluate mibmi, a new command for cleaning and imputing longitudinal body mass index data. The regression-based data cleaning aspects of the algorithm can be useful when researchers analyze messy longitudinal data. Although the multiple imputation algorithm is computationally expensive, it performed similarly or even better to existing alternatives, when interpolating observations. The mibmi algorithm can be a useful tool for analyzing longitudinal body mass index data, or other longitudinal data with very low individual-level variability.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society.

PubMed

Santo, H; Taylor, P H; Gibson, R

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santo, H.; Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

Agreement Among RTOG Sarcoma Radiation Oncologists in Contouring Suspicious Peritumoral Edema for Preoperative Radiation Therapy of Soft Tissue Sarcoma of the Extremity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bahig, Houda; Roberge, David, E-mail: david.roberge.chum@ssss.gouv.qc.ca; Bosch, Walter

Purpose: Peritumoral edema may harbor sarcoma cells. The extent of suspicious edema (SE) included in the treatment volume is subject to clinical judgment, balancing the risk of missing tumor cells with excess toxicity. Our goal was to determine variability in SE delineation by sarcoma radiation oncologists (RO). Methods and Materials: Twelve expert ROs were provided with T1 gadolinium and T2-weighted MR images of 10 patients with high-grade extremity soft-tissue sarcoma. Gross tumor volume, clinical target volume (CTV)3cm (3 cm longitudinal and 1.5 cm radial margin), and CTV2cm (2 cm longitudinal and 1 cm radial margin) were contoured by a singlemore » observer. Suspicious peritumoral edema, defined as abnormal signal on T2 images, was independently delineated by all 12 ROs. Contouring agreement was analyzed using the simultaneous truth and performance level estimation (STAPLE) algorithm and kappa statistics. Results: The mean volumes of GTV, CTV2cm, and CTV3cm were, respectively, 130 cm{sup 3} (7-413 cm{sup 3}), 280 cm{sup 3} and 360 cm{sup 3}. The mean consensus volume computed using the STAPLE algorithm at 95% confidence interval was 188 cm{sup 3} (24-565 cm{sup 3}) with a substantial overall agreement corrected for chance (mean kappa = 0.71; range: 0.32-0.87). The minimum, maximum, and mean volume of SE (excluding the GTV) were 4, 182, and 58 cm{sup 3} (representing a median of 29% of the GTV volume). The median volume of SE not included in the CTV2cm and in the CTV3cm was 5 and 0.3 cm{sup 3}, respectively. There were 3 large tumors with >30 cm{sup 3} of SE not included in the CTV3cm volume. Conclusion: Despite the fact that SE would empirically seem to be a more subjective volume, a substantial or near-perfect interobserver agreement was observed in SE delineation in most cases with high-grade soft-tissue sarcomas of the extremity. A median of 97% of the consensus SE is within the CTV2cm (99.8% within the CTV3cm). In a minority of cases, however, significant expansion of the CTVs is required to cover SE.« less

Agreement among RTOG sarcoma radiation oncologists in contouring suspicious peritumoral edema for preoperative radiation therapy of soft tissue sarcoma of the extremity.

PubMed

Bahig, Houda; Roberge, David; Bosch, Walter; Levin, William; Petersen, Ivy; Haddock, Michael; Freeman, Carolyn; Delaney, Thomas F; Abrams, Ross A; Indelicato, Danny J; Baldini, Elizabeth H; Hitchcock, Ying; Kirsch, David G; Kozak, Kevin R; Wolfson, Aaron; Wang, Dian

2013-06-01

Peritumoral edema may harbor sarcoma cells. The extent of suspicious edema (SE) included in the treatment volume is subject to clinical judgment, balancing the risk of missing tumor cells with excess toxicity. Our goal was to determine variability in SE delineation by sarcoma radiation oncologists (RO). Twelve expert ROs were provided with T1 gadolinium and T2-weighted MR images of 10 patients with high-grade extremity soft-tissue sarcoma. Gross tumor volume, clinical target volume (CTV)3cm (3 cm longitudinal and 1.5 cm radial margin), and CTV2cm (2 cm longitudinal and 1 cm radial margin) were contoured by a single observer. Suspicious peritumoral edema, defined as abnormal signal on T2 images, was independently delineated by all 12 ROs. Contouring agreement was analyzed using the simultaneous truth and performance level estimation (STAPLE) algorithm and kappa statistics. The mean volumes of GTV, CTV2cm, and CTV3cm were, respectively, 130 cm(3) (7-413 cm(3)), 280 cm(3) and 360 cm(3). The mean consensus volume computed using the STAPLE algorithm at 95% confidence interval was 188 cm(3) (24-565 cm(3)) with a substantial overall agreement corrected for chance (mean kappa = 0.71; range: 0.32-0.87). The minimum, maximum, and mean volume of SE (excluding the GTV) were 4, 182, and 58 cm(3) (representing a median of 29% of the GTV volume). The median volume of SE not included in the CTV2cm and in the CTV3cm was 5 and 0.3 cm(3), respectively. There were 3 large tumors with >30 cm(3) of SE not included in the CTV3cm volume. Despite the fact that SE would empirically seem to be a more subjective volume, a substantial or near-perfect interobserver agreement was observed in SE delineation in most cases with high-grade soft-tissue sarcomas of the extremity. A median of 97% of the consensus SE is within the CTV2cm (99.8% within the CTV3cm). In a minority of cases, however, significant expansion of the CTVs is required to cover SE. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Variable depth core sampler

DOEpatents

Bourgeois, P.M.; Reger, R.J.

1996-02-20

A variable depth core sampler apparatus is described comprising a first circular hole saw member, having longitudinal sections that collapses to form a point and capture a sample, and a second circular hole saw member residing inside said first hole saw member to support the longitudinal sections of said first hole saw member and prevent them from collapsing to form a point. The second hole saw member may be raised and lowered inside said first hole saw member. 7 figs.

Inter-annual Variability of Temperature and Extreme Heat Events during the Nairobi Warm Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, A.; Misiani, H. O.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ouma, G. O.; Anyah, R. O.; Jordan, A.

2016-12-01

Extreme heat events significantly stress all organisms in the ecosystem, and are likely to be amplified in peri-urban and urban areas. Understanding the variability and drivers behind these events is key to generating early warnings, yet in Equatorial East Africa, this information is currently unavailable. This study uses daily maximum and minimum temperature records from weather stations within Nairobi and its surroundings to characterize variability in daily minimum temperatures and the number of extreme heat events. ERA-Interim reanalysis is applied to assess the drivers of these events at event and seasonal time scales. At seasonal time scales, high temperatures in Nairobi are a function of large scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature (GMSST). Extreme heat events, however, are more strongly associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For instance, the persistence of AMO and ENSO, in particular, provide a basis for seasonal prediction of extreme heat events/days in Nairobi. It is also apparent that the temporal signal from extreme heat events in tropics differs from classic heat wave definitions developed in the mid-latitudes, which suggests that a new approach for defining these events is necessary for tropical regions.

Analysis of walking variability through simultaneous evaluation of the head, lumbar, and lower-extremity acceleration in healthy youth

PubMed Central

Toda, Haruki; Nagano, Akinori; Luo, Zhiwei

2016-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to clarify whether walking speed affects acceleration variability of the head, lumbar, and lower extremity by simultaneously evaluating of acceleration. [Subjects and Methods] Twenty young individuals recruited from among the staff at Kurashiki Heisei Hospital participated in this study. Eight accelerometers were used to measure the head, lumbar and lower extremity accelerations. The participants were instructed to walk at five walking speeds prescribed by a metronome. Acceleration variability was assessed by a cross-correlation analysis normalized using z-transform in order to evaluate stride-to-stride variability. [Results] Vertical acceleration variability was the smallest in all body parts, and walking speed effect had laterality. Antero-posterior acceleration variability was significantly associated with walking speed at sites other than the head. Medio-lateral acceleration variability of the bilateral hip alone was smaller than the antero-posterior variability. [Conclusion] The findings of this study suggest that the effect of walking speed changes on the stride-to-stride acceleration variability was individual for each body parts, and differs among directions. PMID:27390419

Forecasting seasonal hydrologic response in major river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhuiyan, A. M.

2014-05-01

Seasonal precipitation variation due to natural climate variation influences stream flow and the apparent frequency and severity of extreme hydrological conditions such as flood and drought. To study hydrologic response and understand the occurrence of extreme hydrological events, the relevant forcing variables must be identified. This study attempts to assess and quantify the historical occurrence and context of extreme hydrologic flow events and quantify the relation between relevant climate variables. Once identified, the flow data and climate variables are evaluated to identify the primary relationship indicators of hydrologic extreme event occurrence. Existing studies focus on developing basin-scale forecasting techniques based on climate anomalies in El Nino/La Nina episodes linked to global climate. Building on earlier work, the goal of this research is to quantify variations in historical river flows at seasonal temporal-scale, and regional to continental spatial-scale. The work identifies and quantifies runoff variability of major river basins and correlates flow with environmental forcing variables such as El Nino, La Nina, sunspot cycle. These variables are expected to be the primary external natural indicators of inter-annual and inter-seasonal patterns of regional precipitation and river flow. Relations between continental-scale hydrologic flows and external climate variables are evaluated through direct correlations in a seasonal context with environmental phenomenon such as sun spot numbers (SSN), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Methods including stochastic time series analysis and artificial neural networks are developed to represent the seasonal variability evident in the historical records of river flows. River flows are categorized into low, average and high flow levels to evaluate and simulate flow variations under associated climate variable variations. Results demonstrated not any particular method is suited to represent scenarios leading to extreme flow conditions. For selected flow scenarios, the persistence model performance may be comparable to more complex multivariate approaches, and complex methods did not always improve flow estimation. Overall model performance indicates inclusion of river flows and forcing variables on average improve model extreme event forecasting skills. As a means to further refine the flow estimation, an ensemble forecast method is implemented to provide a likelihood-based indication of expected river flow magnitude and variability. Results indicate seasonal flow variations are well-captured in the ensemble range, therefore the ensemble approach can often prove efficient in estimating extreme river flow conditions. The discriminant prediction approach, a probabilistic measure to forecast streamflow, is also adopted to derive model performance. Results show the efficiency of the method in terms of representing uncertainties in the forecasts.

Longitudinal maturation of auditory cortical function during adolescence.

PubMed

Fitzroy, Ahren B; Krizman, Jennifer; Tierney, Adam; Agouridou, Manto; Kraus, Nina

2015-01-01

Cross-sectional studies have demonstrated that the cortical auditory evoked potential (CAEP) changes substantially in amplitude and latency from childhood to adulthood, suggesting that these aspects of the CAEP continue to mature through adolescence. However, no study to date has longitudinally followed maturation of these CAEP measures through this developmental period. Additionally, no study has examined the trial-to-trial variability of the CAEP during adolescence. Therefore, we longitudinally tracked changes in the latency, amplitude, and variability of the P1, N1, P2, and N2 components of the CAEP in 68 adolescents from age 14 years to age 17 years. Latency decreased for N1 and N2, and did not change for P1 or P2. Amplitude decreased for P1 and N2, increased for N1, and did not change for P2. Variability decreased with age for all CAEP components. These findings provide longitudinal support for the view that the human auditory system continues to mature through adolescence. Continued auditory system maturation through adolescence suggests that CAEP neural generators remain plastic during this age range and potentially amenable to experience-based enhancement or deprivation.

Extreme Value Analysis of hydro meteorological extremes in the ClimEx Large-Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, R. R.; Martel, J. L.; Willkofer, F.; von Trentini, F.; Schmid, F. J.; Leduc, M.; Frigon, A.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

Many studies show an increase in the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events in the course of climate change. However the contribution of natural variability to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events is not yet settled. A reliable estimate of extreme events is from great interest for water management and public safety. In the course of the ClimEx Project (www.climex-project.org) a new single-model large-ensemble was created by dynamically downscaling the CanESM2 large-ensemble with the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5) for an European Domain and a Northeastern North-American domain. By utilizing the ClimEx 50-Member Large-Ensemble (CRCM5 driven by CanESM2 Large-Ensemble) a thorough analysis of natural variability in extreme events is possible. Are the current extreme value statistical methods able to account for natural variability? How large is the natural variability for e.g. a 1/100 year return period derived from a 50-Member Large-Ensemble for Europe and Northeastern North-America? These questions should be answered by applying various generalized extreme value distributions (GEV) to the ClimEx Large-Ensemble. Hereby various return levels (5-, 10-, 20-, 30-, 60- and 100-years) based on various lengths of time series (20-, 30-, 50-, 100- and 1500-years) should be analyzed for the maximum one day precipitation (RX1d), the maximum three hourly precipitation (RX3h) and the streamflow for selected catchments in Europe. The long time series of the ClimEx Ensemble (7500 years) allows us to give a first reliable estimate of the magnitude and frequency of certain extreme events.

Extreme Fire Severity Patterns in Topographic, Convective and Wind-Driven Historical Wildfires of Mediterranean Pine Forests

PubMed Central

Lecina-Diaz, Judit; Alvarez, Albert; Retana, Javier

2014-01-01

Crown fires associated with extreme fire severity are extremely difficult to control. We have assessed fire severity using differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) from Landsat imagery in 15 historical wildfires of Pinus halepensis Mill. We have considered a wide range of innovative topographic, fuel and fire behavior variables with the purposes of (1) determining the variables that influence fire severity patterns among fires (considering the 15 wildfires together) and (2) ascertaining whether different variables affect extreme fire severity within the three fire types (topographic, convective and wind-driven fires). The among-fires analysis showed that fires in less arid climates and with steeper slopes had more extreme severity. In less arid conditions there was more crown fuel accumulation and closer forest structures, promoting high vertical and horizontal fuel continuity and extreme fire severity. The analyses carried out for each fire separately (within fires) showed more extreme fire severity in areas in northern aspects, with steeper slopes, with high crown biomass and in climates with more water availability. In northern aspects solar radiation was lower and fuels had less water limitation to growth which, combined with steeper slopes, produced more extreme severity. In topographic fires there was more extreme severity in northern aspects with steeper slopes and in areas with more water availability and high crown biomass; in convection-dominated fires there was also more extreme fire severity in northern aspects with high biomass; while in wind-driven fires there was only a slight interaction between biomass and water availability. This latter pattern could be related to the fact that wind-driven fires spread with high wind speed, which could have minimized the effect of other variables. In the future, and as a consequence of climate change, new zones with high crown biomass accumulated in non-common drought areas will be available to burn as extreme severity wildfires. PMID:24465492

Extreme fire severity patterns in topographic, convective and wind-driven historical wildfires of Mediterranean pine forests.

PubMed

Lecina-Diaz, Judit; Alvarez, Albert; Retana, Javier

2014-01-01

Crown fires associated with extreme fire severity are extremely difficult to control. We have assessed fire severity using differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) from Landsat imagery in 15 historical wildfires of Pinus halepensis Mill. We have considered a wide range of innovative topographic, fuel and fire behavior variables with the purposes of (1) determining the variables that influence fire severity patterns among fires (considering the 15 wildfires together) and (2) ascertaining whether different variables affect extreme fire severity within the three fire types (topographic, convective and wind-driven fires). The among-fires analysis showed that fires in less arid climates and with steeper slopes had more extreme severity. In less arid conditions there was more crown fuel accumulation and closer forest structures, promoting high vertical and horizontal fuel continuity and extreme fire severity. The analyses carried out for each fire separately (within fires) showed more extreme fire severity in areas in northern aspects, with steeper slopes, with high crown biomass and in climates with more water availability. In northern aspects solar radiation was lower and fuels had less water limitation to growth which, combined with steeper slopes, produced more extreme severity. In topographic fires there was more extreme severity in northern aspects with steeper slopes and in areas with more water availability and high crown biomass; in convection-dominated fires there was also more extreme fire severity in northern aspects with high biomass; while in wind-driven fires there was only a slight interaction between biomass and water availability. This latter pattern could be related to the fact that wind-driven fires spread with high wind speed, which could have minimized the effect of other variables. In the future, and as a consequence of climate change, new zones with high crown biomass accumulated in non-common drought areas will be available to burn as extreme severity wildfires.

Piezoelectric and optical setup to measure an electrical field: application to the longitudinal near-field generated by a tapered coax.

PubMed

Euphrasie, S; Vairac, P; Cretin, B; Lengaigne, G

2008-03-01

We propose a new setup to measure an electrical field in one direction. This setup is made of a piezoelectric sintered lead zinconate titanate film and an optical interferometric probe. We used this setup to investigate how the shape of the extremity of a coaxial cable influences the longitudinal electrical near-field generated by it. For this application, we designed our setup to have a spatial resolution of 100 microm in the direction of the electrical field. Simulations and experiments are presented.

Validation of a Radiography-Based Quantification Designed to Longitudinally Monitor Soft Tissue Calcification in Skeletal Muscle.

PubMed

Moore, Stephanie N; Hawley, Gregory D; Smith, Emily N; Mignemi, Nicholas A; Ihejirika, Rivka C; Yuasa, Masato; Cates, Justin M M; Liu, Xulei; Schoenecker, Jonathan G

2016-01-01

Soft tissue calcification, including both dystrophic calcification and heterotopic ossification, may occur following injury. These lesions have variable fates as they are either resorbed or persist. Persistent soft tissue calcification may result in chronic inflammation and/or loss of function of that soft tissue. The molecular mechanisms that result in the development and maturation of calcifications are uncertain. As a result, directed therapies that prevent or resorb soft tissue calcifications remain largely unsuccessful. Animal models of post-traumatic soft tissue calcification that allow for cost-effective, serial analysis of an individual animal over time are necessary to derive and test novel therapies. We have determined that a cardiotoxin-induced injury of the muscles in the posterior compartment of the lower extremity represents a useful model in which soft tissue calcification develops remote from adjacent bones, thereby allowing for serial analysis by plain radiography. The purpose of the study was to design and validate a method for quantifying soft tissue calcifications in mice longitudinally using plain radiographic techniques and an ordinal scoring system. Muscle injury was induced by injecting cardiotoxin into the posterior compartment of the lower extremity in mice susceptible to developing soft tissue calcification. Seven days following injury, radiographs were obtained under anesthesia. Multiple researchers applied methods designed to standardize post-image processing of digital radiographs (N = 4) and quantify soft tissue calcification (N = 6) in these images using an ordinal scoring system. Inter- and intra-observer agreement for both post-image processing and the scoring system used was assessed using weighted kappa statistics. Soft tissue calcification quantifications by the ordinal scale were compared to mineral volume measurements (threshold 450.7mgHA/cm3) determined by μCT. Finally, sample-size calculations necessary to discriminate between a 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% difference in STiCSS score 7 days following burn/CTX induced muscle injury were determined. Precision analysis demonstrated substantial to good agreement for both post-image processing (κ = 0.73 to 0.90) and scoring (κ = 0.88 to 0.93), with low inter- and intra-observer variability. Additionally, there was a strong correlation in quantification of soft tissue calcification between the ordinal system and by mineral volume quantification by μCT (Spearman r = 0.83 to 0.89). The ordinal scoring system reliably quantified soft tissue calcification in a burn/CTX-induced soft tissue calcification model compared to non-injured controls (Mann-Whitney rank test: P = 0.0002, ***). Sample size calculations revealed that 6 mice per group would be required to detect a 50% difference in STiCSS score with a power of 0.8. Finally, the STiCSS was demonstrated to reliably quantify soft tissue calcification [dystrophic calcification and heterotopic ossification] by radiographic analysis, independent of the histopathological state of the mineralization. Radiographic analysis can discriminate muscle injury-induced soft tissue calcification from adjacent bone and follow its clinical course over time without requiring the sacrifice of the animal. While the STiCSS cannot identify the specific type of soft tissue calcification present, it is still a useful and valid method by which to quantify the degree of soft tissue calcification. This methodology allows for longitudinal measurements of soft tissue calcification in a single animal, which is relatively less expensive, less time-consuming, and exposes the animal to less radiation than in vivo μCT. Therefore, this high-throughput, longitudinal analytic method for quantifying soft tissue calcification is a viable alternative for the study of soft tissue calcification.

Validation of a Radiography-Based Quantification Designed to Longitudinally Monitor Soft Tissue Calcification in Skeletal Muscle

PubMed Central

Moore, Stephanie N.; Hawley, Gregory D.; Smith, Emily N.; Mignemi, Nicholas A.; Ihejirika, Rivka C.; Yuasa, Masato; Cates, Justin M. M.; Liu, Xulei; Schoenecker, Jonathan G.

2016-01-01

Introduction Soft tissue calcification, including both dystrophic calcification and heterotopic ossification, may occur following injury. These lesions have variable fates as they are either resorbed or persist. Persistent soft tissue calcification may result in chronic inflammation and/or loss of function of that soft tissue. The molecular mechanisms that result in the development and maturation of calcifications are uncertain. As a result, directed therapies that prevent or resorb soft tissue calcifications remain largely unsuccessful. Animal models of post-traumatic soft tissue calcification that allow for cost-effective, serial analysis of an individual animal over time are necessary to derive and test novel therapies. We have determined that a cardiotoxin-induced injury of the muscles in the posterior compartment of the lower extremity represents a useful model in which soft tissue calcification develops remote from adjacent bones, thereby allowing for serial analysis by plain radiography. The purpose of the study was to design and validate a method for quantifying soft tissue calcifications in mice longitudinally using plain radiographic techniques and an ordinal scoring system. Methods Muscle injury was induced by injecting cardiotoxin into the posterior compartment of the lower extremity in mice susceptible to developing soft tissue calcification. Seven days following injury, radiographs were obtained under anesthesia. Multiple researchers applied methods designed to standardize post-image processing of digital radiographs (N = 4) and quantify soft tissue calcification (N = 6) in these images using an ordinal scoring system. Inter- and intra-observer agreement for both post-image processing and the scoring system used was assessed using weighted kappa statistics. Soft tissue calcification quantifications by the ordinal scale were compared to mineral volume measurements (threshold 450.7mgHA/cm3) determined by μCT. Finally, sample-size calculations necessary to discriminate between a 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% difference in STiCSS score 7 days following burn/CTX induced muscle injury were determined. Results Precision analysis demonstrated substantial to good agreement for both post-image processing (κ = 0.73 to 0.90) and scoring (κ = 0.88 to 0.93), with low inter- and intra-observer variability. Additionally, there was a strong correlation in quantification of soft tissue calcification between the ordinal system and by mineral volume quantification by μCT (Spearman r = 0.83 to 0.89). The ordinal scoring system reliably quantified soft tissue calcification in a burn/CTX-induced soft tissue calcification model compared to non-injured controls (Mann-Whitney rank test: P = 0.0002, ***). Sample size calculations revealed that 6 mice per group would be required to detect a 50% difference in STiCSS score with a power of 0.8. Finally, the STiCSS was demonstrated to reliably quantify soft tissue calcification [dystrophic calcification and heterotopic ossification] by radiographic analysis, independent of the histopathological state of the mineralization. Conclusions Radiographic analysis can discriminate muscle injury-induced soft tissue calcification from adjacent bone and follow its clinical course over time without requiring the sacrifice of the animal. While the STiCSS cannot identify the specific type of soft tissue calcification present, it is still a useful and valid method by which to quantify the degree of soft tissue calcification. This methodology allows for longitudinal measurements of soft tissue calcification in a single animal, which is relatively less expensive, less time-consuming, and exposes the animal to less radiation than in vivo μCT. Therefore, this high-throughput, longitudinal analytic method for quantifying soft tissue calcification is a viable alternative for the study of soft tissue calcification. PMID:27438007

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on African savannas changes with mean rainfall.

PubMed

Synodinos, Alexis D; Tietjen, Britta; Lohmann, Dirk; Jeltsch, Florian

2018-01-21

Savannas are mixed tree-grass ecosystems whose dynamics are predominantly regulated by resource competition and the temporal variability in climatic and environmental factors such as rainfall and fire. Hence, increasing inter-annual rainfall variability due to climate change could have a significant impact on savannas. To investigate this, we used an ecohydrological model of stochastic differential equations and simulated African savanna dynamics along a gradient of mean annual rainfall (520-780 mm/year) for a range of inter-annual rainfall variabilities. Our simulations produced alternative states of grassland and savanna across the mean rainfall gradient. Increasing inter-annual variability had a negative effect on the savanna state under dry conditions (520 mm/year), and a positive effect under moister conditions (580-780 mm/year). The former resulted from the net negative effect of dry and wet extremes on trees. In semi-arid conditions (520 mm/year), dry extremes caused a loss of tree cover, which could not be recovered during wet extremes because of strong resource competition and the increased frequency of fires. At high mean rainfall (780 mm/year), increased variability enhanced savanna resilience. Here, resources were no longer limiting and the slow tree dynamics buffered against variability by maintaining a stable population during 'dry' extremes, providing the basis for growth during wet extremes. Simultaneously, high rainfall years had a weak marginal benefit on grass cover due to density-regulation and grazing. Our results suggest that the effects of the slow tree and fast grass dynamics on tree-grass interactions will become a major determinant of the savanna vegetation composition with increasing rainfall variability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental factors prevail over dispersal constraints in determining the distribution and assembly of Trichoptera species in mountain lakes.

PubMed

de Mendoza, Guillermo; Ventura, Marc; Catalan, Jordi

2015-07-01

Aiming to elucidate whether large-scale dispersal factors or environmental species sorting prevail in determining patterns of Trichoptera species composition in mountain lakes, we analyzed the distribution and assembly of the most common Trichoptera (Plectrocnemia laetabilis, Polycentropus flavomaculatus, Drusus rectus, Annitella pyrenaea, and Mystacides azurea) in the mountain lakes of the Pyrenees (Spain, France, Andorra) based on a survey of 82 lakes covering the geographical and environmental extremes of the lake district. Spatial autocorrelation in species composition was determined using Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM). Redundancy analysis (RDA) was applied to explore the influence of MEM variables and in-lake, and catchment environmental variables on Trichoptera assemblages. Variance partitioning analysis (partial RDA) revealed the fraction of species composition variation that could be attributed uniquely to either environmental variability or MEM variables. Finally, the distribution of individual species was analyzed in relation to specific environmental factors using binomial generalized linear models (GLM). Trichoptera assemblages showed spatial structure. However, the most relevant environmental variables in the RDA (i.e., temperature and woody vegetation in-lake catchments) were also related with spatial variables (i.e., altitude and longitude). Partial RDA revealed that the fraction of variation in species composition that was uniquely explained by environmental variability was larger than that uniquely explained by MEM variables. GLM results showed that the distribution of species with longitudinal bias is related to specific environmental factors with geographical trend. The environmental dependence found agrees with the particular traits of each species. We conclude that Trichoptera species distribution and composition in the lakes of the Pyrenees are governed predominantly by local environmental factors, rather than by dispersal constraints. For boreal lakes, with similar environmental conditions, a strong role of dispersal capacity has been suggested. Further investigation should address the role of spatial scaling, namely absolute geographical distances constraining dispersal and steepness of environmental gradients at short distances.

Environmental factors prevail over dispersal constraints in determining the distribution and assembly of Trichoptera species in mountain lakes

PubMed Central

de Mendoza, Guillermo; Ventura, Marc; Catalan, Jordi

2015-01-01

Aiming to elucidate whether large-scale dispersal factors or environmental species sorting prevail in determining patterns of Trichoptera species composition in mountain lakes, we analyzed the distribution and assembly of the most common Trichoptera (Plectrocnemia laetabilis, Polycentropus flavomaculatus, Drusus rectus, Annitella pyrenaea, and Mystacides azurea) in the mountain lakes of the Pyrenees (Spain, France, Andorra) based on a survey of 82 lakes covering the geographical and environmental extremes of the lake district. Spatial autocorrelation in species composition was determined using Moran’s eigenvector maps (MEM). Redundancy analysis (RDA) was applied to explore the influence of MEM variables and in-lake, and catchment environmental variables on Trichoptera assemblages. Variance partitioning analysis (partial RDA) revealed the fraction of species composition variation that could be attributed uniquely to either environmental variability or MEM variables. Finally, the distribution of individual species was analyzed in relation to specific environmental factors using binomial generalized linear models (GLM). Trichoptera assemblages showed spatial structure. However, the most relevant environmental variables in the RDA (i.e., temperature and woody vegetation in-lake catchments) were also related with spatial variables (i.e., altitude and longitude). Partial RDA revealed that the fraction of variation in species composition that was uniquely explained by environmental variability was larger than that uniquely explained by MEM variables. GLM results showed that the distribution of species with longitudinal bias is related to specific environmental factors with geographical trend. The environmental dependence found agrees with the particular traits of each species. We conclude that Trichoptera species distribution and composition in the lakes of the Pyrenees are governed predominantly by local environmental factors, rather than by dispersal constraints. For boreal lakes, with similar environmental conditions, a strong role of dispersal capacity has been suggested. Further investigation should address the role of spatial scaling, namely absolute geographical distances constraining dispersal and steepness of environmental gradients at short distances. PMID:26257867

Regression calibration for models with two predictor variables measured with error and their interaction, using instrumental variables and longitudinal data.

PubMed

Strand, Matthew; Sillau, Stefan; Grunwald, Gary K; Rabinovitch, Nathan

2014-02-10

Regression calibration provides a way to obtain unbiased estimators of fixed effects in regression models when one or more predictors are measured with error. Recent development of measurement error methods has focused on models that include interaction terms between measured-with-error predictors, and separately, methods for estimation in models that account for correlated data. In this work, we derive explicit and novel forms of regression calibration estimators and associated asymptotic variances for longitudinal models that include interaction terms, when data from instrumental and unbiased surrogate variables are available but not the actual predictors of interest. The longitudinal data are fit using linear mixed models that contain random intercepts and account for serial correlation and unequally spaced observations. The motivating application involves a longitudinal study of exposure to two pollutants (predictors) - outdoor fine particulate matter and cigarette smoke - and their association in interactive form with levels of a biomarker of inflammation, leukotriene E4 (LTE 4 , outcome) in asthmatic children. Because the exposure concentrations could not be directly observed, we used measurements from a fixed outdoor monitor and urinary cotinine concentrations as instrumental variables, and we used concentrations of fine ambient particulate matter and cigarette smoke measured with error by personal monitors as unbiased surrogate variables. We applied the derived regression calibration methods to estimate coefficients of the unobserved predictors and their interaction, allowing for direct comparison of toxicity of the different pollutants. We used simulations to verify accuracy of inferential methods based on asymptotic theory. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluating the ClimEx Single Model Large Ensemble in Comparison with EURO-CORDEX Results of Seasonal Means and Extreme Precipitation Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Trentini, F.; Schmid, F. J.; Braun, M.; Brisette, F.; Frigon, A.; Leduc, M.; Martel, J. L.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

Meteorological extreme events seem to become more frequent in the present and future, and a seperation of natural climate variability and a clear climate change effect on these extreme events gains more and more interest. Since there is only one realisation of historical events, natural variability in terms of very long timeseries for a robust statistical analysis is not possible with observation data. A new single model large ensemble (SMLE), developed for the ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) is supposed to overcome this lack of data by downscaling 50 members of the CanESM2 (RCP 8.5) with the Canadian CRCM5 regional model (using the EURO-CORDEX grid specifications) for timeseries of 1950-2099 each, resulting in 7500 years of simulated climate. This allows for a better probabilistic analysis of rare and extreme events than any preceding dataset. Besides seasonal sums, several extreme indicators like R95pTOT, RX5day and others are calculated for the ClimEx ensemble and several EURO-CORDEX runs. This enables us to investigate the interaction between natural variability (as it appears in the CanESM2-CRCM5 members) and a climate change signal of those members for past, present and future conditions. Adding the EURO-CORDEX results to this, we can also assess the role of internal model variability (or natural variability) in climate change simulations. A first comparison shows similar magnitudes of variability of climate change signals between the ClimEx large ensemble and the CORDEX runs for some indicators, while for most indicators the spread of the SMLE is smaller than the spread of different CORDEX models.

Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenz, Ruth; Argüeso, Daniel; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andrew J.; van den Hurk, Bart; Berg, Alexis; Lawrence, David M.; Chéruy, Frédérique; Ducharne, Agnès.; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Milly, P. C. D.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2016-01-01

We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and trends on the intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) emission scenario. Removing soil moisture variability significantly reduces temperature extremes over most continental surfaces, while wet precipitation extremes are enhanced in the tropics. Projected drying trends in soil moisture lead to increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. Wet precipitation extremes are decreased in the tropics with soil moisture trends in the simulations, while dry extremes are enhanced in some regions, in particular the Mediterranean and Australia. However, the ensemble results mask considerable differences in the soil moisture trends simulated by the six climate models. We find that the large differences between the models in soil moisture trends, which are related to an unknown combination of differences in atmospheric forcing (precipitation, net radiation), flux partitioning at the land surface, and how soil moisture is parameterized, imply considerable uncertainty in future changes in climate extremes.

Initial stage of motion in the Lavrent'ev-Ishlinskii problem on longitudinal shock on a rod

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morozov, N. F.; Belyaev, A. K.; Tovstik, P. E.; Tovstik, T. P.

2015-11-01

The transverse motion of a thin rod under a sudden application of a prolonged longitudinal load at the initial stage of motion is considered. The introduction of self-similar variables makes it possible to propose a description of the transverse motion weakly dependent on the longitudinal deformation. Both single dents and periodic systems of dents are considered.

Accurate numerical solution of the Helmholtz equation by iterative Lanczos reduction.

PubMed

Ratowsky, R P; Fleck, J A

1991-06-01

The Lanczos recursion algorithm is used to determine forward-propagating solutions for both the paraxial and Helmholtz wave equations for longitudinally invariant refractive indices. By eigenvalue analysis it is demonstrated that the method gives extremely accurate solutions to both equations.

Regional radiation dose-response modeling of functional liver in hepatocellular carcinoma patients with longitudinal sulfur colloid SPECT/CT: a proof of concept.

PubMed

Price, Ryan G; Apisarnthanarax, Smith; Schaub, Stephanie K; Nyflot, Matthew J; Chapman, Tobias R; Matesan, Manuela; Vesselle, Hubert J; Bowen, Stephen R

2018-06-19

We report on patient-specific quantitative changes in longitudinal sulfur colloid SPECT/CT as a function of regional radiation dose distributions to normal liver in a cohort of hepatocellular carcinoma patients. Dose-response thresholds and slopes varied with baseline liver function metrics, and extreme values were found in patients with fatal hepatotoxicity. Dose-response modeling of normal liver in individual HCC patients has potential to characterize in vivo radiosensitivity, identify high risk subgroups, and personalize treatment planning dose constraints. Hepatotoxicity risk in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients is modulated by radiation dose delivered to normal liver tissue, but reported dose-response data are limited. Our prior work established baseline [ 99m Tc]sulfur colloid (SC) SPECT/CT liver function imaging biomarkers that predict clinical outcomes. We conducted a proof-of-concept investigation with longitudinal SC SPECT/CT to characterize patient-specific radiation dose-response relationships as surrogates for liver radiosensitivity. SC SPECT/CT images of 15 HCC patients with variable Child-Pugh status (8 CP-A, 7 CP-B/C) were acquired in treatment position prior to and 1 month (nominal) after SBRT (n=6) or proton therapy (n=9). Localized rigid registrations between pre/post-treatment CT to planning CT scans were performed, and transformations were applied to pre/post-treatment SC SPECT images. Radiotherapy doses were converted to EQD2 α/β=3 and Gy (RBE), and binned in 5 GyEQD2 increments within tumor-subtracted livers. Mean dose and percent change (%ΔSC) between pre- and post-treatment SPECT uptake, normalized to regions receiving < 5 GyEQD2, were calculated in each binned dose region. Dose-response data were parameterized by sigmoid functions (double exponential) consisting of maximum reduction (%ΔSC max ), dose midpoint (D mid ), and dose-response slope (α mid ) parameters. Individual patient sigmoid dose-response curves had high goodness-of-fit (median R 2 = 0.96, range 0.76-0.99). Large inter-patient variability was observed, with median (range) in %ΔSC max of 44% (20-75%), D mid of 13 Gy (4-27 GyEQD2), and α mid of 0.11 GyEQD2 -1 (0.04-0.29 GyEQD2 -1 ), respectively. Eight of 15 patients had %ΔSC max = 20-45%, while 7/15 had %ΔSC max = 60-75%, with subgroups made up of variable baseline liver function status and radiation treatment modality. Fatal hepatotoxicity occurred in patients (2/15) with low TLF (< 0.12) and low D mid (< 7 GyEQD2). Longitudinal SC SPECT/CT imaging revealed patient-specific variations in dose-response, and may identify patients with poor baseline liver function and increased sensitivity to radiation therapy. Validation of this regional liver dose-response modeling concept as a surrogate for patient-specific radiosensitivity has potential to guide HCC therapy regimen selection and planning constraints. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A review of the risk factors for lower extremity overuse injuries in young elite female ballet dancers.

PubMed

Bowerman, Erin Anne; Whatman, Chris; Harris, Nigel; Bradshaw, Elizabeth

2015-06-01

The objective of this study was to review the evidence for selected risk factors of lower extremity overuse injuries in young elite female ballet dancers. An electronic search of key databases from 1969 to July 2013 was conducted using the keywords dancers, ballet dancers, athletes, adolescent, adolescence, young, injury, injuries, risk, overuse, lower limb, lower extremity, lower extremities, growth, maturation, menarche, alignment, and biomechanics. Thirteen published studies were retained for review. Results indicated that there is a high incidence of lower extremity overuse injuries in the target population. Primary risk factors identified included maturation, growth, and poor lower extremity alignment. Strong evidence from well-designed studies indicates that young elite female ballet dancers suffer from delayed onset of growth, maturation, menarche, and menstrual irregularities. However, there is little evidence that this deficit increases the risk of overuse injury, with the exception of stress fractures. Similarly, there is minimal evidence linking poor lower extremity alignment to increased risk of overuse injury. It is concluded that further prospective, longitudinal studies are required to clarify the relationship between growth, maturation, menarche, and lower extremity alignment, and the risk of lower extremity overuse injury in young elite female ballet dancers.

Characterization of extreme air-sea turbulent fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulev, Sergey; Belyaev, Konstantin

2017-04-01

Extreme ocean-atmosphere turbulent fluxes play a critical role in the convective processes in the mid and subpolar latitudes and may also affect a variety of atmospheric processes, such as generation and re-intensification of extreme cyclones in the areas of the mid latitude storm tracks. From the ocean dynamics perspective, specifically for quantifying extreme vertical mixing, characterization of the extreme fluxes requires, besides estimation of the extreme events, also consideration of the relative extremeness of surface fluxes and their timing, e.g. the duration of periods of high surface fluxes. In order to comprehensively characterize extreme turbulent fluxes at sea surface we propose a formalism based upon probability density distributions of surface turbulent fluxes and flux-related variables. Individual absolute flux extremes were derived using Modified Fisher-Tippett (MFT) distribution of turbulent fluxes. Then, we extend this distribution to the fractional distribution, characterizing the fraction of time-integrated turbulent heat flux provided by the fluxes exceeding a given percentile. Finally, we consider the time durations during which fluxes of a given intensity provide extreme accumulations of heat loss from the surface. For estimation of these characteristics of surface fluxes we use fluxes recomputed from the state variables available from modern era reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA and CFSR) for the period from 1979 onwards. Applications of the formalism to the VOS (Voluntary Observing Ship) - based surface fluxes are also considered. We discuss application of the new metrics of mesoscale and synoptic variability of surface fluxes to the dynamics of mixed layer depth in the North Atlantic.

Effect of elevation on extreme precipitation of short durations: evidences of orographic signature on the parameters of Depth-Duration-Frequency curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avanzi, Francesco; De Michele, Carlo; Gabriele, Salvatore; Ghezzi, Antonio; Rosso, Renzo

2015-04-01

Here, we show how atmospheric circulation and topography rule the variability of depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves parameters, and we discuss how this variability has physical implications on the formation of extreme precipitations at high elevations. A DDF is a curve ruling the value of the maximum annual precipitation H as a function of duration D and the level of probability F. We consider around 1500 stations over the Italian territory, with at least 20 years of data of maximum annual precipitation depth at different durations. We estimated the DDF parameters at each location by using the asymptotic distribution of extreme values, i.e. the so-called Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, and considering a statistical simple scale invariance hypothesis. Consequently, a DDF curve depends on five different parameters. A first set relates H with the duration (namely, the mean value of annual maximum precipitation depth for unit duration and the scaling exponent), while a second set links H to F (namely, a scale, position and shape parameter). The value of the shape parameter has consequences on the type of random variable (unbounded, upper or lower bounded). This extensive analysis shows that the variability of the mean value of annual maximum precipitation depth for unit duration obeys to the coupled effect of topography and modal direction of moisture flux during extreme events. Median values of this parameter decrease with elevation. We called this phenomenon "reverse orographic effect" on extreme precipitation of short durations, since it is in contrast with general knowledge about the orographic effect on mean precipitation. Moreover, the scaling exponent is mainly driven by topography alone (with increasing values of this parameter at increasing elevations). Therefore, the quantiles of H(D,F) at durations greater than unit turn to be more variable at high elevations than at low elevations. Additionally, the analysis of the variability of the shape parameter with elevation shows that extreme events at high elevations appear to be distributed according to an upper bounded probability distribution. These evidences could be a characteristic sign of the formation of extreme precipitation events at high elevations.

Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: Assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The paper will conclude by discussing the user needs of satellite rainfall retrievals from a climate change modelling prospective.

Longitudinal and Circumferential Strain of the Proximal Aorta

PubMed Central

Bell, Vanessa; Mitchell, William A.; Sigurðsson, Sigurður; Westenberg, Jos J. M.; Gotal, John D.; Torjesen, Alyssa A.; Aspelund, Thor; Launer, Lenore J.; de Roos, Albert; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Harris, Tamara B.; Mitchell, Gary F.

2014-01-01

Background Accurate assessment of mechanical properties of the proximal aorta is a requisite first step for elucidating the pathophysiology of isolated systolic hypertension. During systole, substantial proximal aortic axial displacement produces longitudinal strain, which we hypothesize causes variable underestimation of ascending aortic circumferential strain compared to values in the longitudinally constrained descending aorta. Methods and Results To assess effects of longitudinal strain, we performed magnetic resonance imaging in 375 participants (72 to 94 years old, 204 women) in the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility‐Reykjavik Study and measured aortic circumferential and longitudinal strain. Circumferential ascending aortic area strain uncorrected for longitudinal strain was comparable in women and men (mean [95% CI], 8.3 [7.8, 8.9] versus 7.9 [7.4, 8.5]%, respectively, P=0.3). However, longitudinal strain was greater in women (8.5±2.5 versus 7.0±2.5%, P<0.001), resulting in greater longitudinally corrected circumferential ascending aortic strain (14.4 [13.6, 15.2] versus 13.0 [12.4, 13.7]%, P=0.010). Observed circumferential descending aortic strain, which did not require correction (women: 14.0 [13.2, 14.8], men: 12.4 [11.6, 13.2]%, P=0.005), was larger than uncorrected (P<0.001), but comparable to longitudinally corrected (P=0.12) circumferential ascending aortic strain. Carotid‐femoral pulse wave velocity did not correlate with uncorrected ascending aortic strain (R=−0.04, P=0.5), but was inversely related to longitudinally corrected ascending and observed descending aortic strain (R=−0.15, P=0.004; R=−0.36, P<0.001, respectively). Longitudinal strain was also inversely related to carotid‐femoral pulse wave velocity and other risk factors for higher aortic stiffness including treated hypertension. Conclusions Longitudinal strain creates substantial and variable errors in circumferential ascending aortic area strain measurements, particularly in women, and should be considered to avoid misclassification of ascending aortic stiffness. PMID:25523153

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield: a case study in Hunan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhu; Shi, Peijun; Zhang, Zhao; Meng, Yongchang; Luan, Yibo; Wang, Jiwei

2017-09-01

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events on crop yield is of paramount importance to climate change adaptation, resilience, and mitigation. Previous studies lack systematic and explicit assessment of these three fundamental aspects of climate change on crop yield. This research attempts to separate out the impacts on rice yields of climatic trend (linear trend change related to mean value), fluctuations (variability surpassing the "fluctuation threshold" which defined as one standard deviation (1 SD) of the residual between the original data series and the linear trend value for each climatic variable), and extreme events (identified by absolute criterion for each kind of extreme events related to crop yield). The main idea of the research method was to construct climate scenarios combined with crop system simulation model. Comparable climate scenarios were designed to express the impact of each climate change component and, were input to the crop system model (CERES-Rice), which calculated the related simulated yield gap to quantify the percentage impacts of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events. Six Agro-Meteorological Stations (AMS) in Hunan province were selected to study the quantitatively impact of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events involving climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration) on early rice yield during 1981-2012. The results showed that extreme events were found to have the greatest impact on early rice yield (-2.59 to -15.89%). Followed by climatic fluctuations with a range of -2.60 to -4.46%, and then the climatic trend (4.91-2.12%). Furthermore, the influence of climatic trend on early rice yield presented "trade-offs" among various climate variables and AMS. Climatic trend and extreme events associated with air temperature showed larger effects on early rice yield than other climatic variables, particularly for high-temperature events (-2.11 to -12.99%). Finally, the methodology use to separate out the influences of the climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield was proved to be feasible and robust. Designing different climate scenarios and feeding them into a crop system model is a potential way to evaluate the quantitative impact of each climate variable.

Longitudinal Regional Brain Development and Clinical Risk Factors in Extremely Preterm Infants.

PubMed

Kersbergen, Karina J; Makropoulos, Antonios; Aljabar, Paul; Groenendaal, Floris; de Vries, Linda S; Counsell, Serena J; Benders, Manon J N L

2016-11-01

To investigate third-trimester extrauterine brain growth and correlate this with clinical risk factors in the neonatal period, using serially acquired brain tissue volumes in a large, unselected cohort of extremely preterm born infants. Preterm infants (gestational age <28 weeks) underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at around 30 weeks postmenstrual age and again around term equivalent age. MRIs were segmented in 50 different regions covering the entire brain. Multivariable regression analysis was used to determine the influence of clinical variables on volumes at both scans, as well as on volumetric growth. MRIs at term equivalent age were available for 210 infants and serial data were available for 131 infants. Growth over these 10 weeks was greatest for the cerebellum, with an increase of 258%. Sex, birth weight z-score, and prolonged mechanical ventilation showed global effects on brain volumes on both scans. The effect of brain injury on ventricular size was already visible at 30 weeks, whereas growth data and volumes at term-equivalent age revealed the effect of brain injury on the cerebellum. This study provides data about third-trimester extrauterine volumetric brain growth in preterm infants. Both global and local effects of several common clinical risk factors were found to influence serial volumetric measurements, highlighting the vulnerability of the human brain, especially in the presence of brain injury, during this period. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regional changes in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pal, Indrani; Al-Tabbaa, Abir

2010-04-01

With increasing concerns about climate change, the need to understand the nature and variability of monsoon climatic conditions and to evaluate possible future changes becomes increasingly important. This paper deals with the changes in frequency and magnitudes of extreme monsoon rainfall deficiency and excess in India from 1871 to 2005. Five regions across India comprising variable climates were selected for the study. Apart from changes in individual regions, changing tendencies in extreme monsoon rainfall deficit and excess were also determined for the Indian region as a whole. The trends and their significance were assessed using non-parametric Mann-Kendall technique. The results show that intra-region variability for extreme monsoon seasonal precipitation is large and mostly exhibited a negative tendency leading to increasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall deficit and decreasing frequency and magnitude of monsoon rainfall excess.

Temporal Stability of Gifted Children's Intelligence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spangler, Robert S.; Sabatino, David A.

1995-01-01

The longitudinal stability of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Revised was examined for consistency in determining eligibility for gifted programs among 66 elementary children. All subtest scales except one remained extremely stable, producing less than one scale score point difference across three test administrations. Children…

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

PubMed Central

Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

2016-01-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958–2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different. PMID:27713662

Psychosocial predictors of the onset of anxiety disorders in women: Results from a prospective 3-year longitudinal study

PubMed Central

Calkins, Amanda W.; Otto, Michael W.; Cohen, Lee S.; Soares, Claudio N.; Vitonis, Alison F.; Hearon, Bridget A.; Harlow, Bernard L.

2009-01-01

In a prospective, longitudinal, population-based study of 643 women participating in the Harvard Study of Moods and Cycles we examined whether psychosocial variables predicted a new or recurrent onset of an anxiety disorder. Presence of anxiety disorders was assessed every six months over three years via structured clinical interviews. Among individuals who had a new episode of anxiety, we confirmed previous findings that history of anxiety, increased anxiety sensitivity (the fear of anxiety related sensations), and increased neuroticism were significant predictors. We also found trend level support for assertiveness as a predictor of anxiety onset. However, of these variables, only history of anxiety and anxiety sensitivity provided unique prediction. We did not find evidence for negative life events as a predictor of onset of anxiety either alone or in interaction with other variables in a diathesis-stress model. These findings from a prospective longitudinal study are discussed in relation to the potential role of such predictors in primary or relapse prevention efforts. PMID:19699609

Drug awareness in adolescents attending a mental health service: analysis of longitudinal data.

PubMed

Arnau, Jaume; Bono, Roser; Díaz, Rosa; Goti, Javier

2011-11-01

One of the procedures used most recently with longitudinal data is linear mixed models. In the context of health research the increasing number of studies that now use these models bears witness to the growing interest in this type of analysis. This paper describes the application of linear mixed models to a longitudinal study of a sample of Spanish adolescents attending a mental health service, the aim being to investigate their knowledge about the consumption of alcohol and other drugs. More specifically, the main objective was to compare the efficacy of a motivational interviewing programme with a standard approach to drug awareness. The models used to analyse the overall indicator of drug awareness were as follows: (a) unconditional linear growth curve model; (b) growth model with subject-associated variables; and (c) individual curve model with predictive variables. The results showed that awareness increased over time and that the variable 'schooling years' explained part of the between-subjects variation. The effect of motivational interviewing was also significant.

Using Multiple Metrics to Analyze Trends and Sensitivity of Climate Variability in New York City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J.; Towey, K.; Booth, J. F.; Baez, S. D.

2017-12-01

As the overall temperature of Earth continues to warm, changes in the Earth's climate are being observed through extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation events and heat waves. This study examines the daily precipitation and temperature record of the greater New York City region during the 1979-2014 period. Daily station observations from three greater New York City airports: John F. Kennedy (JFK), LaGuardia (LGA) and Newark (EWR), are used in this study. Multiple statistical metrics are used in this study to analyze trends and variability in temperature and precipitation in the greater New York City region. The temperature climatology reveals a distinct seasonal cycle, while the precipitation climatology exhibits greater annual variability. Two types of thresholds are used to examine the variability of extreme events: extreme threshold and daily anomaly threshold. The extreme threshold indicates how the strength of the overall maximum is changing whereas the daily anomaly threshold indicates if the strength of the daily maximum is changing over time. We observed an increase in the frequency of anomalous daily precipitation events over the last 36 years, with the greatest frequency occurring in 2011. The most extreme precipitation events occur during the months of late summer through early fall, with approximately four expected extreme events occurring per year during the summer and fall. For temperature, the greatest frequency and variation in temperature anomalies occur during winter and spring. In addition, temperature variance is also analyzed to determine if there is greater day-to-day temperature variability today than in the past.

Droughts and governance impacts on water scarcity: an~analysis in the Brazilian semi-arid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, A. C. S.; Galvão, C. O.; Silva, G. N. S.

2015-06-01

Extreme events are part of climate variability. Dealing with variability is still a challenge that might be increased due to climate change. However, impacts of extreme events are not only dependent on their variability, but also on management and governance. In Brazil, its semi-arid region is vulnerable to extreme events, especially droughts, for centuries. Actually, other Brazilian regions that have been mostly concerned with floods are currently also experiencing droughts. This article evaluates how a combination between climate variability and water governance might affect water scarcity and increase the impacts of extreme events on some regions. For this evaluation, Ostrom's framework for analyzing social-ecological systems (SES) was applied. Ostrom's framework is useful for understanding interactions between resource systems, governance systems and resource users. This study focuses on social-ecological systems located in a drought-prone region of Brazil. Two extreme events were selected, one in 1997-2000, when Brazil's new water policy was very young, and the other one in 2012-2015. The analysis of SES considering Ostrom's principle "Clearly defined boundaries" showed that deficiencies in water management cause the intensification of drought's impacts for the water users. The reasons are more related to water management and governance problems than to drought event magnitude or climate change. This is a problem that holdup advances in dealing with extreme events.

Megavoltage computed tomography image guidance with helical tomotherapy in patients with vertebral tumors: analysis of factors influencing interobserver variability.

PubMed

Levegrün, Sabine; Pöttgen, Christoph; Jawad, Jehad Abu; Berkovic, Katharina; Hepp, Rodrigo; Stuschke, Martin

2013-02-01

To evaluate megavoltage computed tomography (MVCT)-based image guidance with helical tomotherapy in patients with vertebral tumors by analyzing factors influencing interobserver variability, considered as quality criterion of image guidance. Five radiation oncologists retrospectively registered 103 MVCTs in 10 patients to planning kilovoltage CTs by rigid transformations in 4 df. Interobserver variabilities were quantified using the standard deviations (SDs) of the distributions of the correction vector components about the observers' fraction mean. To assess intraobserver variabilities, registrations were repeated after ≥4 weeks. Residual deviations after setup correction due to uncorrectable rotational errors and elastic deformations were determined at 3 craniocaudal target positions. To differentiate observer-related variations in minimizing these residual deviations across the 3-dimensional MVCT from image resolution effects, 2-dimensional registrations were performed in 30 single transverse and sagittal MVCT slices. Axial and longitudinal MVCT image resolutions were quantified. For comparison, image resolution of kilovoltage cone-beam CTs (CBCTs) and interobserver variability in registrations of 43 CBCTs were determined. Axial MVCT image resolution is 3.9 lp/cm. Longitudinal MVCT resolution amounts to 6.3 mm, assessed as full-width at half-maximum of thin objects in MVCTs with finest pitch. Longitudinal CBCT resolution is better (full-width at half-maximum, 2.5 mm for CBCTs with 1-mm slices). In MVCT registrations, interobserver variability in the craniocaudal direction (SD 1.23 mm) is significantly larger than in the lateral and ventrodorsal directions (SD 0.84 and 0.91 mm, respectively) and significantly larger compared with CBCT alignments (SD 1.04 mm). Intraobserver variabilities are significantly smaller than corresponding interobserver variabilities (variance ratio [VR] 1.8-3.1). Compared with 3-dimensional registrations, 2-dimensional registrations have significantly smaller interobserver variability in the lateral and ventrodorsal directions (VR 3.8 and 2.8, respectively) but not in the craniocaudal direction (VR 0.75). Tomotherapy image guidance precision is affected by image resolution and residual deviations after setup correction. Eliminating the effect of residual deviations yields small interobserver variabilities with submillimeter precision in the axial plane. In contrast, interobserver variability in the craniocaudal direction is dominated by the poorer longitudinal MVCT image resolution. Residual deviations after image guidance exist and need to be considered when dose gradients ultimately achievable with image guided radiation therapy techniques are analyzed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Examining solutions to missing data in longitudinal nursing research.

PubMed

Roberts, Mary B; Sullivan, Mary C; Winchester, Suzy B

2017-04-01

Longitudinal studies are highly valuable in pediatrics because they provide useful data about developmental patterns of child health and behavior over time. When data are missing, the value of the research is impacted. The study's purpose was to (1) introduce a three-step approach to assess and address missing data and (2) illustrate this approach using categorical and continuous-level variables from a longitudinal study of premature infants. A three-step approach with simulations was followed to assess the amount and pattern of missing data and to determine the most appropriate imputation method for the missing data. Patterns of missingness were Missing Completely at Random, Missing at Random, and Not Missing at Random. Missing continuous-level data were imputed using mean replacement, stochastic regression, multiple imputation, and fully conditional specification (FCS). Missing categorical-level data were imputed using last value carried forward, hot-decking, stochastic regression, and FCS. Simulations were used to evaluate these imputation methods under different patterns of missingness at different levels of missing data. The rate of missingness was 16-23% for continuous variables and 1-28% for categorical variables. FCS imputation provided the least difference in mean and standard deviation estimates for continuous measures. FCS imputation was acceptable for categorical measures. Results obtained through simulation reinforced and confirmed these findings. Significant investments are made in the collection of longitudinal data. The prudent handling of missing data can protect these investments and potentially improve the scientific information contained in pediatric longitudinal studies. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability

PubMed Central

Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.

2013-01-01

We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722

Trends and variability of daily precipitation extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Trends and variability of extreme precipitation events are important for water-related disaster prevention and mitigation as well as water resource management. Based on daily precipitation dataset from 143 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), a suite of precipitation indices rec...

Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lorenz, Ruth; Argueso, Daniel; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andrew J.; van den Hurk, Bart; Berg, Alexis; Lawrence, David M.; Cheruy, Frederique; Ducharne, Agnes; Hagemann, Stefan; Meier, Arndt; Milly, Paul C.D.; Seneviratne, Sonia I

2016-01-01

We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and trends on the intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes by the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) emission scenario. Removing soil moisture variability significantly reduces temperature extremes over most continental surfaces, while wet precipitation extremes are enhanced in the tropics. Projected drying trends in soil moisture lead to increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. Wet precipitation extremes are decreased in the tropics with soil moisture trends in the simulations, while dry extremes are enhanced in some regions, in particular the Mediterranean and Australia. However, the ensemble results mask considerable differences in the soil moisture trends simulated by the six climate models. We find that the large differences between the models in soil moisture trends, which are related to an unknown combination of differences in atmospheric forcing (precipitation, net radiation), flux partitioning at the land surface, and how soil moisture is parameterized, imply considerable uncertainty in future changes in climate extremes.

Sex Stratification, Technology and Organizational Change: A Longitudinal Case Study of AT&T.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hacker, Sally L.

1979-01-01

Recent technological displacement in AT&T affected workers differentially by sex. This longitudinal analysis of changes in AT&T's organizational structure addresses the tendency of organizational research to ignore the variable of sex in the study of change. (Author/RLV)

VERTICAL, LONGITUDINAL, AND TEMPORAL VARIATION IN THE MACROBENTHOS OF AN APPALACHIAN HEADWATER STREAM SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

We examined vertical, longitudinal, and season variation in the abundance, diversity, variability, and assemblage composition of the epibenthic and hyporheic macrobenthos at Elklick Run, a first-through fourth-order stream continuum in the central Appalachian Mountains in West Vi...

Analysis of Binary Multivariate Longitudinal Data via 2-Dimensional Orbits: An Application to the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa

PubMed Central

Visaya, Maria Vivien; Sherwell, David; Sartorius, Benn; Cromieres, Fabien

2015-01-01

We analyse demographic longitudinal survey data of South African (SA) and Mozambican (MOZ) rural households from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa. In particular, we determine whether absolute poverty status (APS) is associated with selected household variables pertaining to socio-economic determination, namely household head age, household size, cumulative death, adults to minor ratio, and influx. For comparative purposes, households are classified according to household head nationality (SA or MOZ) and APS (rich or poor). The longitudinal data of each of the four subpopulations (SA rich, SA poor, MOZ rich, and MOZ poor) is a five-dimensional space defined by binary variables (questions), subjects, and time. We use the orbit method to represent binary multivariate longitudinal data (BMLD) of each household as a two-dimensional orbit and to visualise dynamics and behaviour of the population. At each time step, a point (x, y) from the orbit of a household corresponds to the observation of the household, where x is a binary sequence of responses and y is an ordering of variables. The ordering of variables is dynamically rearranged such that clusters and holes associated to least and frequently changing variables in the state space respectively, are exposed. Analysis of orbits reveals information of change at both individual- and population-level, change patterns in the data, capacity of states in the state space, and density of state transitions in the orbits. Analysis of household orbits of the four subpopulations show association between (i) households headed by older adults and rich households, (ii) large household size and poor households, and (iii) households with more minors than adults and poor households. Our results are compared to other methods of BMLD analysis. PMID:25919116

The Influence of Recurrent Modes of Climate Variability on the Occurrence of Monthly Temperature Extremes Over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, Paul C.; Detzer, Judah; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Lee, Huikyo; Barkhordarian, Armineh

2017-10-01

The associations between extreme temperature months and four prominent modes of recurrent climate variability are examined over South America. Associations are computed as the percent of extreme temperature months concurrent with the upper and lower quartiles of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Niño, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index distributions, stratified by season. The relationship is strongest for ENSO, with nearly every extreme temperature month concurrent with the upper or lower quartiles of its distribution in portions of northwestern South America during some seasons. The likelihood of extreme warm temperatures is enhanced over parts of northern South America when the Atlantic Niño index is in the upper quartile, while cold extremes are often association with the lowest quartile. Concurrent precipitation anomalies may contribute to these relations. The PDO shows weak associations during December, January, and February, while in June, July, and August its relationship with extreme warm temperatures closely matches that of ENSO. This may be due to the positive relationship between the PDO and ENSO, rather than the PDO acting as an independent physical mechanism. Over Patagonia, the SAM is highly influential during spring and fall, with warm and cold extremes being associated with positive and negative phases of the SAM, respectively. Composites of sea level pressure anomalies for extreme temperature months over Patagonia suggest an important role of local synoptic scale weather variability in addition to a favorable SAM for the occurrence of these extremes.

Clustering of longitudinal data by using an extended baseline: A new method for treatment efficacy clustering in longitudinal data.

PubMed

Schramm, Catherine; Vial, Céline; Bachoud-Lévi, Anne-Catherine; Katsahian, Sandrine

2018-01-01

Heterogeneity in treatment efficacy is a major concern in clinical trials. Clustering may help to identify the treatment responders and the non-responders. In the context of longitudinal cluster analyses, sample size and variability of the times of measurements are the main issues with the current methods. Here, we propose a new two-step method for the Clustering of Longitudinal data by using an Extended Baseline. The first step relies on a piecewise linear mixed model for repeated measurements with a treatment-time interaction. The second step clusters the random predictions and considers several parametric (model-based) and non-parametric (partitioning, ascendant hierarchical clustering) algorithms. A simulation study compares all options of the clustering of longitudinal data by using an extended baseline method with the latent-class mixed model. The clustering of longitudinal data by using an extended baseline method with the two model-based algorithms was the more robust model. The clustering of longitudinal data by using an extended baseline method with all the non-parametric algorithms failed when there were unequal variances of treatment effect between clusters or when the subgroups had unbalanced sample sizes. The latent-class mixed model failed when the between-patients slope variability is high. Two real data sets on neurodegenerative disease and on obesity illustrate the clustering of longitudinal data by using an extended baseline method and show how clustering may help to identify the marker(s) of the treatment response. The application of the clustering of longitudinal data by using an extended baseline method in exploratory analysis as the first stage before setting up stratified designs can provide a better estimation of treatment effect in future clinical trials.

Latent change models of adult cognition: are changes in processing speed and working memory associated with changes in episodic memory?

PubMed

Hertzog, Christopher; Dixon, Roger A; Hultsch, David F; MacDonald, Stuart W S

2003-12-01

The authors used 6-year longitudinal data from the Victoria Longitudinal Study (VLS) to investigate individual differences in amount of episodic memory change. Latent change models revealed reliable individual differences in cognitive change. Changes in episodic memory were significantly correlated with changes in other cognitive variables, including speed and working memory. A structural equation model for the latent change scores showed that changes in speed and working memory predicted changes in episodic memory, as expected by processing resource theory. However, these effects were best modeled as being mediated by changes in induction and fact retrieval. Dissociations were detected between cross-sectional ability correlations and longitudinal changes. Shuffling the tasks used to define the Working Memory latent variable altered patterns of change correlations.

Duplex sonography for detection of deep vein thrombosis of upper extremities: a 13-year experience.

PubMed

Chung, Amy S Y; Luk, W H; Lo, Adrian X N; Lo, C F

2015-04-01

To determine the prevalence and characteristics of sonographically evident upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis in symptomatic Chinese patients and identify its associated risk factors. Regional hospital, Hong Kong. Data on patients undergoing upper-extremity venous sonography examinations during a 13-year period from November 1999 to October 2012 were retrieved. Variables including age, sex, history of smoking, history of lower-extremity deep vein thrombosis, major surgery within 30 days, immobilisation within 30 days, cancer (history of malignancy), associated central venous or indwelling catheter, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, sepsis within 30 days, and stroke within 30 days were tested using binary logistic regression to understand the risk factors for upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis. The presence of upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis identified. Overall, 213 patients with upper-extremity sonography were identified. Of these patients, 29 (13.6%) had upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis. The proportion of upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis using initial ultrasound was 0.26% of all deep vein thrombosis ultrasound requests. Upper limb swelling was the most common presentation seen in a total of 206 (96.7%) patients. Smoking (37.9%), history of cancer (65.5%), and hypertension (27.6%) were the more prevalent conditions among patients in the upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis-positive group. No statistically significant predictor of upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis was noted if all variables were included. After backward stepwise logistic regression, the final model was left with only age (P=0.119), female gender (P=0.114), and history of malignancy (P=0.024) as independent variables. History of malignancy remained predictive of upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis. Upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis is uncommon among symptomatic Chinese population. The most common sign is swelling and the major risk factor for upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis identified in this study is malignancy.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levegruen, Sabine, E-mail: sabine.levegruen@uni-due.de; Poettgen, Christoph; Abu Jawad, Jehad

Purpose: To evaluate megavoltage computed tomography (MVCT)-based image guidance with helical tomotherapy in patients with vertebral tumors by analyzing factors influencing interobserver variability, considered as quality criterion of image guidance. Methods and Materials: Five radiation oncologists retrospectively registered 103 MVCTs in 10 patients to planning kilovoltage CTs by rigid transformations in 4 df. Interobserver variabilities were quantified using the standard deviations (SDs) of the distributions of the correction vector components about the observers' fraction mean. To assess intraobserver variabilities, registrations were repeated after {>=}4 weeks. Residual deviations after setup correction due to uncorrectable rotational errors and elastic deformations were determinedmore » at 3 craniocaudal target positions. To differentiate observer-related variations in minimizing these residual deviations across the 3-dimensional MVCT from image resolution effects, 2-dimensional registrations were performed in 30 single transverse and sagittal MVCT slices. Axial and longitudinal MVCT image resolutions were quantified. For comparison, image resolution of kilovoltage cone-beam CTs (CBCTs) and interobserver variability in registrations of 43 CBCTs were determined. Results: Axial MVCT image resolution is 3.9 lp/cm. Longitudinal MVCT resolution amounts to 6.3 mm, assessed as full-width at half-maximum of thin objects in MVCTs with finest pitch. Longitudinal CBCT resolution is better (full-width at half-maximum, 2.5 mm for CBCTs with 1-mm slices). In MVCT registrations, interobserver variability in the craniocaudal direction (SD 1.23 mm) is significantly larger than in the lateral and ventrodorsal directions (SD 0.84 and 0.91 mm, respectively) and significantly larger compared with CBCT alignments (SD 1.04 mm). Intraobserver variabilities are significantly smaller than corresponding interobserver variabilities (variance ratio [VR] 1.8-3.1). Compared with 3-dimensional registrations, 2-dimensional registrations have significantly smaller interobserver variability in the lateral and ventrodorsal directions (VR 3.8 and 2.8, respectively) but not in the craniocaudal direction (VR 0.75). Conclusion: Tomotherapy image guidance precision is affected by image resolution and residual deviations after setup correction. Eliminating the effect of residual deviations yields small interobserver variabilities with submillimeter precision in the axial plane. In contrast, interobserver variability in the craniocaudal direction is dominated by the poorer longitudinal MVCT image resolution. Residual deviations after image guidance exist and need to be considered when dose gradients ultimately achievable with image guided radiation therapy techniques are analyzed.« less

Continuous relative phase variability during an exhaustive run in runners with a history of iliotibial band syndrome.

PubMed

Miller, Ross H; Meardon, Stacey A; Derrick, Timothy R; Gillette, Jason C

2008-08-01

Previous research has proposed that a lack of variability in lower extremity coupling during running is associated with pathology. The purpose of the study was to evaluate lower extremity coupling variability in runners with and without a history of iliotibial band syndrome (ITBS) during an exhaustive run. Sixteen runners ran to voluntary exhaustion on a motorized treadmill while a motion capture system recorded reflective marker locations. Eight runners had a history of ITBS. At the start and end of the run, continuous relative phase (CRP) angles and CRP variability between strides were calculated for key lower extremity kinematic couplings. The ITBS runners demonstrated less CRP variability than controls in several couplings between segments that have been associated with knee pain and ITBS symptoms, including tibia rotation-rearfoot motion and rearfoot motion-thigh ad/abduction, but more variability in knee flexion/extension-foot ad/abduction. The ITBS runners also demonstrated low variability at heel strike in coupling between rearfoot motion-tibia rotation. The results suggest that runners prone to ITBS use abnormal segmental coordination patterns, particular in couplings involving thigh ad/abduction and tibia internal/external rotation. Implications for variability in injury etiology are suggested.

Health Benefits of Volunteering in the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piliavin, Jane Allyn; Siegl, Erica

2007-01-01

We investigate positive effects of volunteering on psychological well-being and self-reported health using all four waves of the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Confirming previous research, volunteering was positively related to both outcome variables. Both consistency of volunteering over time and diversity of participation are significantly…

Revisiting the Dedifferentiation Hypothesis with Longitudinal Multi-Cohort Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Frias, Cindy M.; Lovden, Martin; Lindenberger, Ulman; Nilsson, Lars-Goran

2007-01-01

The present longitudinal multi-cohort study examines whether interindividual variability in cognitive performance and change increases in old age, and whether associations among developments of different cognitive functions increase with adult age. Multivariate multiple-group latent growth modeling was applied to data from narrow cohorts separated…

A Longitudinal Study of Academic Progress Rate as a Result of Team and Institutional Variables at NCAA Division I Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hale, Jimmie Edwin

2014-01-01

This study explained Academic Progress Rate (APR) levels and differences in APR (DAPR) with team and institutional variables. Team variables included team gender, sport profile, and squad size. Institutional variables included individual variables aggregated to the institutional level. The data analyzed in this study was derived from the National…

Trends and variability of daily temperature extremes during 1960-2012 in the Yangtze River Basin, China

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The variability of temperature extremes has been the focus of attention during the past few decades, and may exert a great influence on the global hydrologic cycle and energy balance through thermal forcing. Based on daily minimum and maximum temperature observed by the China Meteorological Administ...

Vision in relation to lower extremity deficit in older women: cross-sectional and longitudinal study.

PubMed

Kulmala, Jenni; Sipilä, Sarianna; Tiainen, Kristina; Pärssinen, Olavi; Koskenvuo, Markku; Kaprio, Jaakko; Rantanen, Taina

2012-10-01

Vision problems are common experiences within the older population. This study aimed to examine the association between vision and lower extremity impairment. 434 women aged 63-75 participated in visual acuity (VA) measurements at baseline and 313 persons at three-year follow-up. Measurements of lower extremity function included maximal isometric knee extension strength, leg extension power, maximal walking speed and standing balance. At baseline, knee extension strength was lower among participants with visual impairment (VI) (273.2±6.4 N) compared to those with good vision (306.5±5.9 N, p<0.001) as well as leg extension power (95.2±2.7 W vs 104.2±2.6 W, p=0.009) and maximal walking speed (1.6±0.02 m/s vs 1.8±0.03 m/s, p<0.001). Higher velocity moment among persons with VI (53.5±2.7 mm²/s vs 42.7±1.4 mm²/s, p<0.001) indicated that persons with VI had poorer balance compared to persons with good vision. Decreased isometric knee extension strength (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.09-1.45), poorer standing balance (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.00-1.35) as well as lower maximal walking speed (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.13-1.59) were associated with VI in the logistic regression models. Additionally, the association between poorer leg extension power and VI (OR 1.14, 95% CI 0.99-1.31) was of borderline statistical significance. In longitudinal analyses, VI did not predict decline in lower extremity function. Lower extremity impairment was associated with VI among relatively healthy older women. However, change in lower extremity function was quite similar between the vision groups. It is possible that decreased VA may be a marker of underlying systemic factors or the aging process, which lead to poorer functional capacity, or there may be shared background factors, which lead to decreased vision and lower extremity impairment.

Validation of China-wide interpolated daily climate variables from 1960 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Wenping; Xu, Bing; Chen, Zhuoqi; Xia, Jiangzhou; Xu, Wenfang; Chen, Yang; Wu, Xiaoxu; Fu, Yang

2015-02-01

Temporally and spatially continuous meteorological variables are increasingly in demand to support many different types of applications related to climate studies. Using measurements from 600 climate stations, a thin-plate spline method was applied to generate daily gridded climate datasets for mean air temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation over China for the period 1961-2011. A comprehensive evaluation of interpolated climate was conducted at 150 independent validation sites. The results showed superior performance for most of the estimated variables. Except for wind speed, determination coefficients ( R 2) varied from 0.65 to 0.90, and interpolations showed high consistency with observations. Most of the estimated climate variables showed relatively consistent accuracy among all seasons according to the root mean square error, R 2, and relative predictive error. The interpolated data correctly predicted the occurrence of daily precipitation at validation sites with an accuracy of 83 %. Moreover, the interpolation data successfully explained the interannual variability trend for the eight meteorological variables at most validation sites. Consistent interannual variability trends were observed at 66-95 % of the sites for the eight meteorological variables. Accuracy in distinguishing extreme weather events differed substantially among the meteorological variables. The interpolated data identified extreme events for the three temperature variables, relative humidity, and sunshine duration with an accuracy ranging from 63 to 77 %. However, for wind speed, air pressure, and precipitation, the interpolation model correctly identified only 41, 48, and 58 % of extreme events, respectively. The validation indicates that the interpolations can be applied with high confidence for the three temperatures variables, as well as relative humidity and sunshine duration based on the performance of these variables in estimating daily variations, interannual variability, and extreme events. Although longitude, latitude, and elevation data are included in the model, additional information, such as topography and cloud cover, should be integrated into the interpolation algorithm to improve performance in estimating wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation.

Regression Models for the Analysis of Longitudinal Gaussian Data from Multiple Sources

PubMed Central

O’Brien, Liam M.; Fitzmaurice, Garrett M.

2006-01-01

We present a regression model for the joint analysis of longitudinal multiple source Gaussian data. Longitudinal multiple source data arise when repeated measurements are taken from two or more sources, and each source provides a measure of the same underlying variable and on the same scale. This type of data generally produces a relatively large number of observations per subject; thus estimation of an unstructured covariance matrix often may not be possible. We consider two methods by which parsimonious models for the covariance can be obtained for longitudinal multiple source data. The methods are illustrated with an example of multiple informant data arising from a longitudinal interventional trial in psychiatry. PMID:15726666

A three-dimensional kinematic analysis of tongue flicking in Python molurus.

PubMed

de Groot, Jurriaan H; van der Sluijs, Inke; Snelderwaard, Peter Ch; van Leeuwen, Johan L

2004-02-01

The forked snake tongue is a muscular organ without hard skeletal support. A functional interpretation of the variable arrangement of the intrinsic muscles along the tongue requires a quantitative analysis of the motion performance during tongue protrusion and flicking. Therefore, high-speed fluoroscopy and high-speed stereo photogrammetry were used to analyse the three-dimensional shape changes of the tongue in Python molurus bivittatus (Boidae). The posterior protruding part of the tongue elongated up to 130% while the flicking anterior portion elongated maximally 60%. The differences in tongue strains relate to the absence or presence, respectively, of longitudinal muscle fibres in the peripheral tongue. Maximum overall protrusion velocity (4.3 m s(-1)) occurred initially when the tongue tip left the mouth. Maximum tongue length of approximately 0.01 body length (20 mm) was reached during the first tongue flick. These observations are discussed within the scope of the biomechanical constraints of hydrostatic tongue protrusion: a negative forward pressure gradient, longitudinal tongue compliance and axial tongue stiffness. The three-dimensional deformation varied along the tongue with a mean curvature of 0.06 mm(-1) and a maximum value of 0.5 mm(-1). At the basis of the anterior forked portion of the tongue tips, extreme curvatures up to 2.0 mm(-1) were observed. These quantitative results support previously proposed inferences about a hydrostatic elongation mechanism and may serve to evaluate future dynamic models of tongue flicking.

Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855-2005)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, Barbara J.; Magnuson, John J.; Jensen, Olaf P.; Card, Virginia M.; Hodgkins, Glenn; Korhonen, Johanna; Livingstone, David M.; Stewart, Kenton M.; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Granin, Nick G.

2012-01-01

Often extreme events, more than changes in mean conditions, have the greatest impact on the environment and human well-being. Here we examine changes in the occurrence of extremes in the timing of the annual formation and disappearance of lake ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Both changes in the mean condition and in variability around the mean condition can alter the probability of extreme events. Using long-term ice phenology data covering two periods 1855–6 to 2004–5 and 1905–6 to 2004–5 for a total of 75 lakes, we examined patterns in long-term trends and variability in the context of understanding the occurrence of extreme events. We also examined patterns in trends for a 30-year subset (1975–6 to 2004–5) of the 100-year data set. Trends for ice variables in the recent 30-year period were steeper than those in the 100- and 150-year periods, and trends in the 150-year period were steeper than in the 100-year period. Ranges of rates of change (days per decade) among time periods based on linear regression were 0.3−1.6 later for freeze, 0.5−1.9 earlier for breakup, and 0.7−4.3 shorter for duration. Mostly, standard deviation did not change, or it decreased in the 150-year and 100-year periods. During the recent 50-year period, standard deviation calculated in 10-year windows increased for all ice measures. For the 150-year and 100-year periods changes in the mean ice dates rather than changes in variability most strongly influenced the significant increases in the frequency of extreme lake ice events associated with warmer conditions and decreases in the frequency of extreme events associated with cooler conditions.

Infrared Studies of the Variability and Mass Loss of Dusty Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars in the Magellanic Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sargent, Benjamin; Groenewegen, M. A. T.

2018-01-01

The asymptotic giant branch (AGB) phase is one of the last phases of a star's life. AGB stars lose mass in an outflow in which dust condenses and is pushed away from the star. Extreme AGB stars are so named because their very red colors suggest very large amounts of dust, which in turn suggests extremely high mass loss rates. AGB stars also vary in brightness, and studies show that extreme AGB stars tend to have longer periods than other AGB stars and are more likely to be fundamental mode pulsators than other AGB stars. Extreme AGB stars are difficult to study, as their colors are so red due to their copious amounts of circumstellar dust that they are often not detected at optical wavelengths. Therefore, they must be observed at infrared wavelengths to explore their variability. Using the Spitzer Space Telescope, my team and I have observed a sample of extreme AGB stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) over Cycles 9 through 12 during the Warm Spitzer mission. For each cycle, we typically observed a set of extreme AGB stars at both 3.6 and 4.5 microns wavelength approximately monthly for most of a year. These observations reveal a wide range of variability properties. I present results from our analysis of the data obtained from these Spitzer variability programs, including light curve analyses and comparison to period-luminosity diagrams. Funding is acknowledged from JPL RSA # 1561703.

Organisational participation and health among smallholder farmers: a longitudinal study in a Latin American context

PubMed Central

Orozco, Fadya; Mota, Eduardo; Cole, Donald C

2014-01-01

Objective To understand the impact of social organisation affiliation and farmers’ agricultural production practices on farmer health. Organisations facilitate the acquisition and exchange of forms of social capital which can influence the adoption of practices with potential health impacts. In countries such as Ecuador, smallholder agriculture is practised by socially vulnerable populations. Agricultural production often involves the use of extremely hazardous pesticides, while practices that reduce the use of chemicals through integrated pest management (IPM) remain uncommon. Design Longitudinal study (2007–2010). Setting 12 Ecuadorian communities, previously part of a participatory action research study. Participants 208 small-scale farmers. Inclusion criteria were: age between 18 and 65 years, literate and resident in the community for the previous 3 years. Primary outcomes The differential effects of the membership in social organisations (as an effect modifier), on the relationship between the implementation of IPM practices (main independent variable) and farmers’ health, measured by neurocognitive performance scores (better higher value; dependent variable). Results Among organisational participants, the coefficient of association between the implementation of IPM practices for the category good/very good (vs no use) and neurocognitive performance, when farmers were involved in organisations, was negative and moderate (β=−0.17, SE 0.21) though not significant (p>0.1); for the category little/moderate use, the coefficient was positive (β=0.34, SE 0.19) and significant. Among those who did not participate in organisations, both little/moderate use and good/very good use of IPM practices were associated with an increase in neurocognitive performance. Conclusions The effect of agricultural production practices on farmers’ health, transmitted through organisations, can be differentiated. Organisations as structures of social capital seem to be functional in the social reproduction process of the communities studied. Results highlight the need to redirect the analysis of social capital to a more integrated study of social determination of health. PMID:25344481

Systemic inflammatory mediators in post-traumatic complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS I) - longitudinal investigations and differences to control groups.

PubMed

Schinkel, Christian; Scherens, A; Köller, M; Roellecke, G; Muhr, G; Maier, C

2009-03-17

The Complex Regional Pain Syndrome I (CRPS I) is a disease that might affect an extremity after trauma or operation. The pathogenesis remains yet unclear. It has clinical signs of severe local inflammation as a result of an exaggerated inflammatory response but neurogenic dysregulation also contributes to it. Some studies investigated the role inflammatory mediators and cytokines; however, few longitudinal studies exist and control groups except healthy controls were not investigated yet. To get further insights into the role of systemic inflammatory mediators in CRPS I, we investigated a variety of pro-, anti-, or neuro-inflammatory mediators such as C-Reactive Protein (CRP), White Blood Cell Count (WBC), Interleukins 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12 (p70), Interferon gamma, Tumor-Necrosis-Factor alpha (TNF-a) and its soluble Receptors I/II, soluble Selectins (E,L,P), Substance-P (SP), and Calcitonin Gene-Related Peptide (CGRP) at different time points in venous blood from patients with acute (AC) and chronic (CC) CRPS I, patients with forearm fractures (FR), with neuralgia (NE), and from healthy volunteers (C). No significant changes for serum parameters investigated in CRPS compared to control groups were found except for CC/C (CGRP p = 0.007), FR/C (CGRP p = 0.048) and AC/CC (IL-12 p = 0.02; TNFRI/II p = 0.01; SP p = 0.049). High interindividual variations were observed. No intra- or interindividual correlation of parameters with clinical course (e.g. chronification) or outcome was detectable. Although clinically appearing as inflammation in acute stages, local rather than systemic inflammatory responses seem to be relevant in CRPS. Variable results from different studies might be explained by unpredictable intermittent release of mediators from local inflammatory processes into the blood combined with high interindividual variabilities. A clinically relevant difference to various control groups was not notable in this pilot study. Determination of systemic inflammatory parameters is not yet helpful in diagnostic and follow-up of CRPS I.

Comprehensive assessment of dam impacts on flow regimes with consideration of interannual variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongyong; Shao, Quanxi; Zhao, Tongtiegang

2017-09-01

Assessing the impact of human intervention on flow regimes is important in policy making and resource management. Previous impact assessments of dam regulation on flow regimes have focused on long-term average patterns, but interannual variations, which are important characteristics to be considered, have been ignored. In this study, the entire signatures of hydrograph variations of Miyun Reservoir in northern China were described by forty flow regime metrics that incorporate magnitude, variability and frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change for flow events based on a long-term synchronous observation series of inflow and outflow. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were used to reduce the multidimensionality of the metrics and time and to determine impact patterns and their interannual shifts. Statistically significant driving factors of impact pattern variations were identified. We found that dam regulation resulted in four main impact classes on the flow regimes and that the regulated capacity was interannually attenuated from 1973 to 2010. The impact patterns alternated between the highly regulated class with extremely decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency and the slightly regulated class with extremely increasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency from 1973 to 1987 and then stabilized in the latter class from 1988 to 2001. After 2001, the pattern gradually changed from the moderately regulated class with moderately decreasing flow magnitude, extreme variability, and extreme intermittency to the slightly regulated class with slightly decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and no intermittency. Decreasing precipitation and increasing drought were the primary drivers for the interannual variations of the impact patterns, and inflow variability was the most significant factor affecting the patterns, followed by flow event frequency and duration, magnitude, and timing. This study shows that the use of interannual characteristics can help to gain more insight into the impact of dam regulation on flow regimes and will provide important information to scientifically guide the multi-purpose regulation of dams.

A Comparison of Various MRA Methods Applied to Longitudinal Evaluation Studies in Vocational Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kapes, Jerome T.; And Others

Three models of multiple regression analysis (MRA): single equation, commonality analysis, and path analysis, were applied to longitudinal data from the Pennsylvania Vocational Development Study. Variables influencing weekly income of vocational education students one year after high school graduation were examined: grade point averages (grades…

A Bayesian Approach for Analyzing Longitudinal Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Song, Xin-Yuan; Lu, Zhao-Hua; Hser, Yih-Ing; Lee, Sik-Yum

2011-01-01

This article considers a Bayesian approach for analyzing a longitudinal 2-level nonlinear structural equation model with covariates, and mixed continuous and ordered categorical variables. The first-level model is formulated for measures taken at each time point nested within individuals for investigating their characteristics that are dynamically…

Longitudinal Variability in Streamwater Chemistry and Carbon and Nitrogen Fluxes in Restored and Degraded Urban Stream Networks

EPA Science Inventory

Stream restoration has increasingly been used as a best management practice for improving water quality in urbanizing watersheds, yet few data exist to assess restoration effectiveness. This study examined the longitudinal patterns in carbon and nitrogen concentrations and mass ...

Conducting Three-Level Longitudinal Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peugh, James L.; Heck, Ronald H.

2017-01-01

Researchers in the field of early adolescence interested in quantifying the environmental influences on a response variable of interest over time would use cluster sampling (i.e., obtaining repeated measures from students nested within classrooms and/or schools) to obtain the needed sample size. The resulting longitudinal data would be nested at…

Analyzing Longitudinal Item Response Data via the Pairwise Fitting Method

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fu, Zhi-Hui; Tao, Jian; Shi, Ning-Zhong; Zhang, Ming; Lin, Nan

2011-01-01

Multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) models can be applied to longitudinal educational surveys where a group of individuals are administered different tests over time with some common items. However, computational problems typically arise as the dimension of the latent variables increases. This is especially true when the latent variable…

Problem Behavior and Heart Rate Reactivity in Adopted Adolescents: Longitudinal and Concurrent Relations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bimmel, Nicole; van IJzendoorn, Marinus H.; Bakermans-Kranenburg, Marian J.; Juffer, Femmie; De Geus, Eco J. C.

2008-01-01

The present longitudinal study examined resting heart rate and heart rate variability and reactivity to a stressful gambling task in adopted adolescents with aggressive, delinquent, or internalizing behavior problems and adopted adolescents without behavior problems (total N=151). Early-onset delinquent adolescents showed heart rate…

Commentary: Mediation Analysis, Causal Process, and Cross-Sectional Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shrout, Patrick E.

2011-01-01

Maxwell, Cole, and Mitchell (2011) extended the work of Maxwell and Cole (2007), which raised important questions about whether mediation analyses based on cross-sectional data can shed light on longitudinal mediation process. The latest article considers longitudinal processes that can only be partially explained by an intervening variable, and…

Longitudinal Adult Practical Problem-Solving: 1983, 1993, 2003

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haught, Patricia A.; Walls, Richard T.

2007-01-01

A 20-year longitudinal study was conducted to examine adult performance on practical problems. Effects of independent variables of age, education, and administration time were assessed on solutions generated and quality points earned. Younger adults generated more solutions than other adults in 1983, 1993, and 2003. Both younger and middle adults…

Approaches to Data Analysis in Longitudinal Field Investigations of Educational Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jovick, Thomas D.

The federally funded longitudinal field study called Management Implications of Team Teaching (MITT) required a search for an appropriate strategy for analyzing through-time relationships among selected variables. The MITT project used questionnaires and interviews to collect data concerning the work, governance, attitudes, and orientation of…

A Longitudinal Investigation of Employment among Low-Income Youth: Patterns, Predictors, and Correlates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Purtell, Kelly M.; McLoyd, Vonnie C.

2013-01-01

Drawing on previous research linking patterns of adolescent employment--defined in terms of duration and intensity--to educational and occupational outcomes later in life (Staff & Mortimer, 2008), the present study (a) examined positive social behavior and academic variables as longitudinal predictors of patterns of adolescent employment…

Examining Solutions to Missing Data in Longitudinal Nursing Research

PubMed Central

Roberts, Mary B.; Sullivan, Mary C.; Winchester, Suzy B.

2017-01-01

Purpose Longitudinal studies are highly valuable in pediatrics because they provide useful data about developmental patterns of child health and behavior over time. When data are missing, the value of the research is impacted. The study’s purpose was to: (1) introduce a 3-step approach to assess and address missing data; (2) illustrate this approach using categorical and continuous level variables from a longitudinal study of premature infants. Methods A three-step approach with simulations was followed to assess the amount and pattern of missing data and to determine the most appropriate imputation method for the missing data. Patterns of missingness were Missing Completely at Random, Missing at Random, and Not Missing at Random. Missing continuous-level data were imputed using mean replacement, stochastic regression, multiple imputation, and fully conditional specification. Missing categorical-level data were imputed using last value carried forward, hot-decking, stochastic regression, and fully conditional specification. Simulations were used to evaluate these imputation methods under different patterns of missingness at different levels of missing data. Results The rate of missingness was 16–23% for continuous variables and 1–28% for categorical variables. Fully conditional specification imputation provided the least difference in mean and standard deviation estimates for continuous measures. Fully conditional specification imputation was acceptable for categorical measures. Results obtained through simulation reinforced and confirmed these findings. Practice Implications Significant investments are made in the collection of longitudinal data. The prudent handling of missing data can protect these investments and potentially improve the scientific information contained in pediatric longitudinal studies. PMID:28425202

A long term study of pulmonary function among US refractory ceramic fibre workers

PubMed Central

LeMasters, Grace K; Hilbert, Timothy J; Levin, Linda S; Rice, Carol H; Borton, Eric K; Lockey, James E

2010-01-01

Background Cross-sectional studies have shown declines in lung function among refractory ceramic fibre (RCF) workers with increasing fibre exposure. This study followed current and former workers (n=1396) for up to 17 years and collected 5243 pulmonary function tests. Methods Cumulative fibre exposure and production years were categorised into exposure levels at five manufacturing locations. Conventional longitudinal models did not adequately partition age-related changes from other time-dependent variables. Therefore, a restricted cubic spline model was developed to account for the non-linear decline with age. Results Cumulative fibre >60 fibre-months/cc showed a significant loss in lung function at the first test. When results were examined longitudinally, cumulative exposure was confounded with age as workers with the highest cumulative exposure were generally older. A longitudinal model adjusted by age groups was implemented to control for this confounding. No consistent longitudinal loss in lung function was observed with RCF exposure. Smoking, initial weight and weight increase were significant factors. Conclusion No consistent decline was observed longitudinally with exposure to RCF, although cross-sectional and longitudinal findings were discordant. Confounding and accelerated lung function declines with ageing and the correlation of multiple time-dependent variables should be considered in order to minimise error and maximise precision. An innovative statistical methodology for these types of data is described. PMID:20798015

Hot spots of multivariate extreme anomalies in Earth observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flach, M.; Sippel, S.; Bodesheim, P.; Brenning, A.; Denzler, J.; Gans, F.; Guanche, Y.; Reichstein, M.; Rodner, E.; Mahecha, M. D.

2016-12-01

Anomalies in Earth observations might indicate data quality issues, extremes or the change of underlying processes within a highly multivariate system. Thus, considering the multivariate constellation of variables for extreme detection yields crucial additional information over conventional univariate approaches. We highlight areas in which multivariate extreme anomalies are more likely to occur, i.e. hot spots of extremes in global atmospheric Earth observations that impact the Biosphere. In addition, we present the year of the most unusual multivariate extreme between 2001 and 2013 and show that these coincide with well known high impact extremes. Technically speaking, we account for multivariate extremes by using three sophisticated algorithms adapted from computer science applications. Namely an ensemble of the k-nearest neighbours mean distance, a kernel density estimation and an approach based on recurrences is used. However, the impact of atmosphere extremes on the Biosphere might largely depend on what is considered to be normal, i.e. the shape of the mean seasonal cycle and its inter-annual variability. We identify regions with similar mean seasonality by means of dimensionality reduction in order to estimate in each region both the `normal' variance and robust thresholds for detecting the extremes. In addition, we account for challenges like heteroscedasticity in Northern latitudes. Apart from hot spot areas, those anomalies in the atmosphere time series are of particular interest, which can only be detected by a multivariate approach but not by a simple univariate approach. Such an anomalous constellation of atmosphere variables is of interest if it impacts the Biosphere. The multivariate constellation of such an anomalous part of a time series is shown in one case study indicating that multivariate anomaly detection can provide novel insights into Earth observations.

Causing Factors for Extreme Precipitation in the Western Saudi-Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alharbi, M. M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2015-12-01

In the western coast of Saudi Arabia the climate is in general semi-arid but extreme precipitation events occur on a regular basis: e.g., on 26th November 2009, when 122 people were killed and 350 reported missing in Jeddah following more than 90mm in just four hours. Our investigation will a) analyse major drivers of the generation of extremes and b) investigate major responsible modes of variability for the occurrence of extremes. Firstly, we present a systematic analysis of station based observations of the most relevant extreme events (1985-2013) for 5 stations (Gizan, Makkah, Jeddah, Yenbo and Wejh). Secondly, we investigate the responsible mechanism on the synoptic to large-scale leading to the generation of extremes and will analyse factors for the time variability of extreme event occurrence. Extreme events for each station are identified in the wet season (Nov-Jan): 122 events show intensity above the respective 90th percentile. The most extreme events are systematically investigated with respect to the responsible forcing conditions which we can identify as: The influence of the Soudan Low, active Red-Sea-Trough situations established via interactions with mid-latitude tropospheric wave activity, low pressure systems over the Mediterranean, the influence of the North Africa High, the Arabian Anticyclone and the influence of the Indian monsoon trough. We investigate the role of dynamical forcing factors like the STJ and the upper-troposphere geopotential conditions and the relation to smaller local low-pressure systems. By means of an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis based on MSLP we investigate the possibility to objectively quantify the influence of existing major variability modes and their role for the generation of extreme precipitation events.

Socio-Ecological Variables Associated with Context-Specific Sitting Time in Belgian Older Adults: A One-Year Follow-Up Study

PubMed Central

Busschaert, Cedric; Scherrens, Anne-Lore; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; Cardon, Greet; Van Cauwenberg, Jelle; De Cocker, Katrien

2016-01-01

Introduction Knowledge about variables associated with context-specific sitting time in older adults is limited. Therefore, this study explored cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of socio-demographic, social-cognitive, physical-environmental and health-related variables with sitting during TV viewing, computer use and motorized transport in older adults. Methods A sample of Belgian older adults completed structured interviews on context-specific sitting time and associated variables using a longitudinal study design. Objective measurements of grip strength and physical performance were also completed. Complete baseline data were available of 258 participants (73.98±6.16 years) of which 229 participants remained in the study at one year follow-up (retention rate: 91.60%). Cross-sectional correlates (baseline data) and longitudinal predictors (change-scores in relation with change in sitting time) were explored through multiple linear regression analyses. Results Per context-specific sitting time, most of the cross-sectional correlates differed from the longitudinal predictors. Increases over time in enjoyment of watching TV (+one unit), encouragement of partner to watch less TV (+one unit) and TV time of partner (+30.0 min/day) were associated with respectively 9.1 min/day (p<0.001), 16.0 min/day (p<0.001) and 12.0 min/day (p<0.001) more sitting during TV viewing at follow-up. Increases over time in enjoyment of using a computer (+one unit), the number of smartphones and tablets (+1) and computer use of the partner (+30.0 min/day) were associated with respectively 5.5 min/day (p < .01), 10.4 min/day (p < .05) and 3.0 min/day (p < .05) more sitting during computer use at follow-up. An increase over time in self-efficacy regarding taking a bicycle or walking was associated with 2.9 min/day (p < .05) less sitting during motorized transport at follow-up. Conclusions The results stressed the importance of looking at separate contexts of sitting. Further, the results highlighted the importance of longitudinal research in order to reveal which changes in particular variables predicted changes in context-specific sitting time. Variables at the social-cognitive level were most frequently related to context-specific sitting. PMID:27997603

Snow-atmosphere coupling and its impact on temperature variability and extremes over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diro, G. T.; Sushama, L.; Huziy, O.

2018-04-01

The impact of snow-atmosphere coupling on climate variability and extremes over North America is investigated using modeling experiments with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). To this end, two CRCM5 simulations driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis for the 1981-2010 period are performed, where snow cover and depth are prescribed (uncoupled) in one simulation while they evolve interactively (coupled) during model integration in the second one. Results indicate systematic influence of snow cover and snow depth variability on the inter-annual variability of soil and air temperatures during winter and spring seasons. Inter-annual variability of air temperature is larger in the coupled simulation, with snow cover and depth variability accounting for 40-60% of winter temperature variability over the Mid-west, Northern Great Plains and over the Canadian Prairies. The contribution of snow variability reaches even more than 70% during spring and the regions of high snow-temperature coupling extend north of the boreal forests. The dominant process contributing to the snow-atmosphere coupling is the albedo effect in winter, while the hydrological effect controls the coupling in spring. Snow cover/depth variability at different locations is also found to affect extremes. For instance, variability of cold-spell characteristics is sensitive to snow cover/depth variation over the Mid-west and Northern Great Plains, whereas, warm-spell variability is sensitive to snow variation primarily in regions with climatologically extensive snow cover such as northeast Canada and the Rockies. Furthermore, snow-atmosphere interactions appear to have contributed to enhancing the number of cold spell days during the 2002 spring, which is the coldest recorded during the study period, by over 50%, over western North America. Additional results also provide useful information on the importance of the interactions of snow with large-scale mode of variability in modulating temperature extreme characteristics.

The NASA Energy and Water Cycle Extreme (NEWSE) Integration Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

House, P. R.; Lapenta, W.; Schiffer, R.

2008-01-01

Skillful predictions of water and energy cycle extremes (flood and drought) are elusive. To better understand the mechanisms responsible for water and energy extremes, and to make decisive progress in predicting these extremes, the collaborative NASA Energy and Water cycle Extremes (NEWSE) Integration Project, is studying these extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) during 2006-2007, including their relationships with continental and global scale processes, and assessment of their predictability on multiple space and time scales. It is our hypothesis that an integrative analysis of observed extremes which reflects the current understanding of the role of SST and soil moisture variability influences on atmospheric heating and forcing of planetary waves, incorporating recently available global and regional hydro- meteorological datasets (i.e., precipitation, water vapor, clouds, etc.) in conjunction with advances in data assimilation, can lead to new insights into the factors that lead to persistent drought and flooding. We will show initial results of this project, whose goals are to provide an improved definition, attribution and prediction on sub-seasonal to interannual time scales, improved understanding of the mechanisms of decadal drought and its predictability, including the impacts of SST variability and deep soil moisture variability, and improved monitoring/attributions, with transition to applications; a bridging of the gap between hydrological forecasts and stakeholders (utilization of probabilistic forecasts, education, forecast interpretation for different sectors, assessment of uncertainties for different sectors, etc.).

Rainfall variability over southern Africa: an overview of current research using satellite and climate model data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, satellite-derived rainfall data are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model, run at both high and low spatial resolution. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, a brief overview is given of the authors' research to date, pertaining to southern African rainfall. This covers (i) a description of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa; (ii) a comparison of model simulated daily rainfall with the satellite-derived dataset; (iii) results from sensitivity testing of the model's domain size; and (iv) results from the idealised SST experiments.

Detection and Attribution of Simulated Climatic Extreme Events and Impacts: High Sensitivity to Bias Correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sippel, S.; Otto, F. E. L.; Forkel, M.; Allen, M. R.; Guillod, B. P.; Heimann, M.; Reichstein, M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Kirsten, T.; Mahecha, M. D.

2015-12-01

Understanding, quantifying and attributing the impacts of climatic extreme events and variability is crucial for societal adaptation in a changing climate. However, climate model simulations generated for this purpose typically exhibit pronounced biases in their output that hinders any straightforward assessment of impacts. To overcome this issue, various bias correction strategies are routinely used to alleviate climate model deficiencies most of which have been criticized for physical inconsistency and the non-preservation of the multivariate correlation structure. We assess how biases and their correction affect the quantification and attribution of simulated extremes and variability in i) climatological variables and ii) impacts on ecosystem functioning as simulated by a terrestrial biosphere model. Our study demonstrates that assessments of simulated climatic extreme events and impacts in the terrestrial biosphere are highly sensitive to bias correction schemes with major implications for the detection and attribution of these events. We introduce a novel ensemble-based resampling scheme based on a large regional climate model ensemble generated by the distributed weather@home setup[1], which fully preserves the physical consistency and multivariate correlation structure of the model output. We use extreme value statistics to show that this procedure considerably improves the representation of climatic extremes and variability. Subsequently, biosphere-atmosphere carbon fluxes are simulated using a terrestrial ecosystem model (LPJ-GSI) to further demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem impacts to the methodology of bias correcting climate model output. We find that uncertainties arising from bias correction schemes are comparable in magnitude to model structural and parameter uncertainties. The present study consists of a first attempt to alleviate climate model biases in a physically consistent way and demonstrates that this yields improved simulations of climate extremes and associated impacts. [1] http://www.climateprediction.net/weatherathome/

Global Weirding? - Using Very Large Ensembles and Extreme Value Theory to assess Changes in Extreme Weather Events Today

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E. L.; Mitchell, D.; Sippel, S.; Black, M. T.; Dittus, A. J.; Harrington, L. J.; Mohd Saleh, N. H.

2014-12-01

A shift in the distribution of socially-relevant climate variables such as daily minimum winter temperatures and daily precipitation extremes, has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change for various mid-latitude regions. However, while there are many process-based arguments suggesting also a change in the shape of these distributions, attribution studies demonstrating this have not currently been undertaken. Here we use a very large initial condition ensemble of ~40,000 members simulating the European winter 2013/2014 using the distributed computing infrastructure under the weather@home project. Two separate scenarios are used:1. current climate conditions, and 2. a counterfactual scenario of "world that might have been" without anthropogenic forcing. Specifically focusing on extreme events, we assess how the estimated parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution vary depending on variable-type, sampling frequency (daily, monthly, …) and geographical region. We find that the location parameter changes for most variables but, depending on the region and variables, we also find significant changes in scale and shape parameters. The very large ensemble allows, furthermore, to assess whether such findings in the fitted GEV distributions are consistent with an empirical analysis of the model data, and whether the most extreme data still follow a known underlying distribution that in a small sample size might otherwise be thought of as an out-lier. The ~40,000 member ensemble is simulated using 12 different SST patterns (1 'observed', and 11 best guesses of SSTs with no anthropogenic warming). The range in SSTs, along with the corresponding changings in the NAO and high-latitude blocking inform on the dynamics governing some of these extreme events. While strong tele-connection patterns are not found in this particular experiment, the high number of simulated extreme events allows for a more thorough analysis of the dynamics than has been performed before. Therefore, combining extreme value theory with very large ensemble simulations allows us to understand the dynamics of changes in extreme events which is not possible just using the former but also shows in which cases statistics combined with smaller ensembles give as valid results as very large initial conditions.

Instrumental variable specifications and assumptions for longitudinal analysis of mental health cost offsets.

PubMed

O'Malley, A James

2012-12-01

Instrumental variables (IVs) enable causal estimates in observational studies to be obtained in the presence of unmeasured confounders. In practice, a diverse range of models and IV specifications can be brought to bear on a problem, particularly with longitudinal data where treatment effects can be estimated for various functions of current and past treatment. However, in practice the empirical consequences of different assumptions are seldom examined, despite the fact that IV analyses make strong assumptions that cannot be conclusively tested by the data. In this paper, we consider several longitudinal models and specifications of IVs. Methods are applied to data from a 7-year study of mental health costs of atypical and conventional antipsychotics whose purpose was to evaluate whether the newer and more expensive atypical antipsychotic medications lead to a reduction in overall mental health costs.

Changes in Articulator Movement Variability during Phonemic Development: A Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grigos, Maria I.

2009-01-01

Purpose: The present study explored articulator movement variability during voicing contrast acquisition. The purpose was to examine whether oral articulator movement trajectories associated with the production of voiced/voiceless bilabial phonemes in children became less variable over time. Method: Jaw, lower lip, and upper lip movements were…

Factors Associated with Asian American Students' Choice of STEM Major

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lowinger, Robert; Song, Hyun-a

2017-01-01

This study explored Asian American students' likelihood of selecting STEM over liberal arts or business college majors using the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002. Student-level variables were the strongest predictors of college major, followed by parent-level variables, and background variables. Academic achievement and interest were the…

Against Conventional Wisdom: Factors Influencing Hispanic Students' Reading Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Percell, Jay C.; Kaufman, Kristina

2013-01-01

The researchers performed a variable analysis of the 2002 Educational Longitudinal Study data investigating factors that influence students' reading scores on standardized tests. Hispanic and non-Hispanic Scores were analyzed and controlling variables were compared to determine the effect of each on both populations. Certain variables commonly…

Influence of quality control variables on failure of graphite/epoxy under extreme moisture conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clements, L. L.; Lee, P. R.

1980-01-01

Tension tests on graphite/epoxy composites were performed to determine the influence of various quality control variables on failure strength as a function of moisture and moderate temperatures. The extremely high and low moisture contents investigated were found to have less effect upon properties than did temperature or the quality control variables of specimen flaws and prepreg batch to batch variations. In particular, specimen flaws were found to drastically reduce the predicted strength of the composite, whereas specimens from different batches of prepreg displayed differences in strength as a function of temperature and extreme moisture exposure. The findings illustrate the need for careful specimen preparation, studies of flaw sensitivity, and careful quality control in any study of composite materials.

A longitudinal study of the relationship between work engagement and symptoms of anxiety and depression.

PubMed

Innstrand, Siw Tone; Langballe, Ellen Melbye; Falkum, Erik

2012-02-01

This longitudinal study examined the dynamic relationship between work engagement (vigour and dedication) and symptoms of anxiety and depression. A sample of 3475 respondents from eight different occupational groups (lawyers, physicians, nurses, teachers, church ministers, bus drivers, people working in advertising and people working in information technology) in Norway supplied data at two points in time with a 2-year time interval. The advantages of longitudinal design were utilized, including testing of reversed causation and controlling for unmeasured third variables. In general, the results showed that the hypothesized normal causal relationship was superior to a reversed causation model. In other words, this study supported the assumption that work engagement is more likely to be the antecedent for symptoms of depression and anxiety than the outcome. In particular, the vigour facet of work engagement provides lower levels of depression and anxiety 2 years later. However, additional analyses modelling unmeasured third variables indicate that unknown third variables may have created some spurious effects on the pattern of the observed relationship. Implications of the findings are discussed in the paper. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Inter-model variability in hydrological extremes projections for Amazonian sub-basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres Rodriguez, Daniel; Garofolo, Lucas; Lázaro de Siqueira Júnior, José; Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme; Tomasella, Javier

2014-05-01

Irreducible uncertainties due to knowledge's limitations, chaotic nature of climate system and human decision-making process drive uncertainties in Climate Change projections. Such uncertainties affect the impact studies, mainly when associated to extreme events, and difficult the decision-making process aimed at mitigation and adaptation. However, these uncertainties allow the possibility to develop exploratory analyses on system's vulnerability to different sceneries. The use of different climate model's projections allows to aboard uncertainties issues allowing the use of multiple runs to explore a wide range of potential impacts and its implications for potential vulnerabilities. Statistical approaches for analyses of extreme values are usually based on stationarity assumptions. However, nonstationarity is relevant at the time scales considered for extreme value analyses and could have great implications in dynamic complex systems, mainly under climate change transformations. Because this, it is required to consider the nonstationarity in the statistical distribution parameters. We carried out a study of the dispersion in hydrological extremes projections using climate change projections from several climate models to feed the Distributed Hydrological Model of the National Institute for Spatial Research, MHD-INPE, applied in Amazonian sub-basins. This model is a large-scale hydrological model that uses a TopModel approach to solve runoff generation processes at the grid-cell scale. MHD-INPE model was calibrated for 1970-1990 using observed meteorological data and comparing observed and simulated discharges by using several performance coeficients. Hydrological Model integrations were performed for present historical time (1970-1990) and for future period (2010-2100). Because climate models simulate the variability of the climate system in statistical terms rather than reproduce the historical behavior of climate variables, the performances of the model's runs during the historical period, when feed with climate model data, were tested using descriptors of the Flow Duration Curves. The analyses of projected extreme values were carried out considering the nonstationarity of the GEV distribution parameters and compared with extremes events in present time. Results show inter-model variability in a broad dispersion on projected extreme's values. Such dispersion implies different degrees of socio-economic impacts associated to extreme hydrological events. Despite the no existence of one optimum result, this variability allows the analyses of adaptation strategies and its potential vulnerabilities.

The scaling of population persistence with carrying capacity does not asymptote in populations of a fish experiencing extreme climate variability.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; Wintle, Brendan A; McHugh, Peter A; Booker, Douglas J; McIntosh, Angus R

2017-06-14

Despite growing concerns regarding increasing frequency of extreme climate events and declining population sizes, the influence of environmental stochasticity on the relationship between population carrying capacity and time-to-extinction has received little empirical attention. While time-to-extinction increases exponentially with carrying capacity in constant environments, theoretical models suggest increasing environmental stochasticity causes asymptotic scaling, thus making minimum viable carrying capacity vastly uncertain in variable environments. Using empirical estimates of environmental stochasticity in fish metapopulations, we showed that increasing environmental stochasticity resulting from extreme droughts was insufficient to create asymptotic scaling of time-to-extinction with carrying capacity in local populations as predicted by theory. Local time-to-extinction increased with carrying capacity due to declining sensitivity to demographic stochasticity, and the slope of this relationship declined significantly as environmental stochasticity increased. However, recent 1 in 25 yr extreme droughts were insufficient to extirpate populations with large carrying capacity. Consequently, large populations may be more resilient to environmental stochasticity than previously thought. The lack of carrying capacity-related asymptotes in persistence under extreme climate variability reveals how small populations affected by habitat loss or overharvesting, may be disproportionately threatened by increases in extreme climate events with global warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

Bidirectional iterative parcellation of diffusion weighted imaging data: Separating cortical regions connected by the arcuate fasciculus and extreme capsule

PubMed Central

Patterson, Dianne K.; Van Petten, Cyma; Beeson, Pélagie M.; Rapcsak, Steven Z.; Plante, Elena

2014-01-01

This paper introduces a Bidirectional Iterative Parcellation (BIP) procedure designed to identify the location and size of connected cortical regions (parcellations) at both ends of a white matter tract in diffusion weighted images. The procedure applies the FSL option “probabilistic tracking with classification targets” in a bidirectional and iterative manner. To assess the utility of BIP, we applied the procedure to the problem of parcellating a limited set of well-established gray matter seed regions associated with the dorsal (arcuate fasciculus/superior longitudinal fasciculus) and ventral (extreme capsule fiber system) white matter tracts in the language networks of 97 participants. These left hemisphere seed regions and the two white matter tracts, along with their right hemisphere homologues, provided an excellent test case for BIP because the resulting parcellations overlap and their connectivity via the arcuate fasciculi and extreme capsule fiber systems are well studied. The procedure yielded both confirmatory and novel findings. Specifically, BIP confirmed that each tract connects within the seed regions in unique, but expected ways. Novel findings included increasingly left-lateralized parcellations associated with the arcuate fasciculus/superior longitudinal fasciculus as a function of age and education. These results demonstrate that BIP is an easily implemented technique that successfully confirmed cortical connectivity patterns predicted in the literature, and has the potential to provide new insights regarding the architecture of the brain. PMID:25173414

The Oporto mixed-longitudinal growth, health and performance study. Design, methods and baseline results.

PubMed

Souza, Michele Caroline de; Chaves, Raquel Nichele de; Dos Santos, Fernanda Karina; Gomes, Thayse Natacha Queiroz Ferreira; Santos, Daniel Vilhena E; Borges, Alessandra Silva; Pereira, Sara Isabel Sampaio; Forjaz, Cláudia Lúcia de Moraes; Eisenmann, Joey; Maia, José António Ribeiro

2017-02-01

Studies concerning child and adolescent growth, development, performance and health aimed at the multiple interactions amongst this complex set of variables are not common in the Portuguese speaking countries. The aim of this paper is to address the key ideas, methodology and design of the Oporto Growth, Health and Performance Study (OGHPS). The OGHPS is a multidisciplinary mixed-longitudinal study whose main purpose is to examine the multiple interactions among biological, environmental and lifestyle indicators that affect growth, development, health and performance of Portuguese adolescents aged 10-18 years old. This study briefly presents baseline results for growth, physical fitness and lifestyle behaviours for those participating in the cross-sectional sample (n ≈ 8000). Approximately 30% were over-fat or obese. On average, boys were more physically fit and active than girls. Few adolescents meet the guidelines for sleep duration (≈10%) and eating habits (16.2-24.8%), while 76-85% meet the recommended levels of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. The OGHPS has an innovative approach due to its mixed-longitudinal design and the broad array of variables. Furthermore, subsequent analyses of the longitudinal data will enable a detailed exploration of important factors affecting the growth trajectories of health and performance variables and will also help to identify some of the most opportune times for interventions in terms of health behaviours.

Extreme Variability in a Broad Absorption Line Quasar

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stern, Daniel; Jun, Hyunsung D.; Graham, Matthew J.

CRTS J084133.15+200525.8 is an optically bright quasar at z = 2.345 that has shown extreme spectral variability over the past decade. Photometrically, the source had a visual magnitude of V ∼ 17.3 between 2002 and 2008. Then, over the following five years, the source slowly brightened by approximately one magnitude, to V ∼ 16.2. Only ∼1 in 10,000 quasars show such extreme variability, as quantified by the extreme parameters derived for this quasar assuming a damped random walk model. A combination of archival and newly acquired spectra reveal the source to be an iron low-ionization broad absorption line quasar withmore » extreme changes in its absorption spectrum. Some absorption features completely disappear over the 9 years of optical spectra, while other features remain essentially unchanged. We report the first definitive redshift for this source, based on the detection of broad H α in a Keck/MOSFIRE spectrum. Absorption systems separated by several 1000 km s{sup −1} in velocity show coordinated weakening in the depths of their troughs as the continuum flux increases. We interpret the broad absorption line variability to be due to changes in photoionization, rather than due to motion of material along our line of sight. This source highlights one sort of rare transition object that astronomy will now be finding through dedicated time-domain surveys.« less

Pathways to an Engineering Career

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pearson, Willie, Jr.; Miller, Jon D.

2012-01-01

Utilizing data from the 20-year record of the Longitudinal Study of American Youth (LSAY), this analysis uses a set of variables to predict employment in engineering for a national sample of adults aged 34 to 37. The LSAY is one of the longest longitudinal studies of the impact of secondary education and postsecondary education conducted in the…

Developing Talents: A Longitudinal Examination of Intellectual Ability and Academic Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCoach, D. Betsy; Yu, Huihui; Gottfried, Allen W.; Gottfried, Adele Eskeles

2017-01-01

The Fullerton Longitudinal Study offers a unique opportunity to model the stability of intelligence and achievement and their relations from elementary through secondary school. Using latent variable modeling, we fit a cross-lagged panel model to examine the relations between intelligence and achievement in two academic domains: mathematics and…

Parenting Moderates a Genetic Vulnerability Factor in Longitudinal Increases in Youths' Substance Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brody, Gene H.; Beach, Steven R. H.; Philibert, Robert A.; Chen, Yi-fu; Lei, Man-Kit; Murry, Velma McBride; Brown, Anita C.

2009-01-01

The authors used a longitudinal, prospective design to investigate a moderation effect in the association between a genetic vulnerability factor, a variable nucleotide repeat polymorphism in the promoter region of "5HTT" (5-HTTLPR), and increases in youths' substance use. The primary study hypothesis predicted that involved-supportive…

Assessing Change in Latent Skills across Time with Longitudinal Cognitive Diagnosis Modeling: An Evaluation of Model Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaya, Yasemin; Leite, Walter L.

2017-01-01

Cognitive diagnosis models are diagnostic models used to classify respondents into homogenous groups based on multiple categorical latent variables representing the measured cognitive attributes. This study aims to present longitudinal models for cognitive diagnosis modeling, which can be applied to repeated measurements in order to monitor…

Longitudinal Study of Low and High Achievers in Early Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Navarro, Jose I.; Aguilar, Manuel; Marchena, Esperanza; Ruiz, Gonzalo; Menacho, Inmaculada; Van Luit, Johannes E. H.

2012-01-01

Background: Longitudinal studies allow us to identify, which specific maths skills are weak in young children, and whether there is a continuing weakness in these areas throughout their school years. Aims: This 2-year study investigated whether certain socio-demographic variables affect early mathematical competency in children aged 5-7 years.…

Longitudinal Relationships of Fitness, Physical Activity, and Weight Status with Academic Achievement in Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suchert, Vivien; Hanewinkel, Reiner; Isensee, Barbara

2016-01-01

Background: To examine associations of cardiorespiratory fitness, physical activity (PA) and weight status with academic achievement 1 year later. In addition, the mediating role of psychological variables was tested. Methods: Longitudinal analyses included 1011 German students (M = 14.1 years, SD = 0.6 years). Cardiorespiratory fitness was…

Poisson Growth Mixture Modeling of Intensive Longitudinal Data: An Application to Smoking Cessation Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shiyko, Mariya P.; Li, Yuelin; Rindskopf, David

2012-01-01

Intensive longitudinal data (ILD) have become increasingly common in the social and behavioral sciences; count variables, such as the number of daily smoked cigarettes, are frequently used outcomes in many ILD studies. We demonstrate a generalized extension of growth mixture modeling (GMM) to Poisson-distributed ILD for identifying qualitatively…

Longitudinal Predictors of Achievement: Achievement History, Family Environment, and Mental Health.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Petersen, Anne C.; Kellam, Sheppard G.

In this seven year longitudinal study predictors of achievement for first graders were measured against actual school achievement of the same students in the seventh and eight grades. Three sets of variables were obtained in the first grade. Achievement history, family environment, and mental health were used as measures. Mental health was…

Criminal Victimization and Crime Risk Perception: A Multilevel Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Russo, Silvia; Roccato, Michele; Vieno, Alessio

2013-01-01

In a national sample of the Italian population, surveyed four times between October 2002 and January 2007 (N = 2,008), we performed a multilevel longitudinal study aimed at predicting the increase in crime risk perception as a function of three families of independent variables, respectively lying at the within individual level (direct…

Applying Longitudinal Mean and Covariance Structures (LMACS) Analysis to Assess Construct Stability Over Two Time Points: An Example Using Psychological Entitlement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bashkov, Bozhidar M.; Finney, Sara J.

2013-01-01

Traditional methods of assessing construct stability are reviewed and longitudinal mean and covariance structures (LMACS) analysis, a modern approach, is didactically illustrated using psychological entitlement data. Measurement invariance and latent variable stability results are interpreted, emphasizing substantive implications for educators and…

Social support at work and leisure time and its association with self-rated health and sickness absence.

PubMed

Falkenberg, A; Nyfjäll, M; Hellgren, C; Vingård, E

2012-01-01

The aim of this longitudinal study is to investigate how different aspects of social support at work and in leisure time are associated with self rated health and sickness absence. The 541 participants in the study were representative for a working population in the public sector in Sweden with a majority being woman. Most of the variables were created from data from a questionnaire in March-April 2005. There were four independent variables and two dependent variables. The dependent were based on data from November 2006. A logistic regression model was used for the analysis of associations. A separate model was adapted for each of the explanatory variables for each outcome, which gave five models per independent variable. The study has given a greater awareness of the importance of employees receiving social support, regardless of type of support or from whom the support is coming. Social support has a strong association with SRH in a longitudinal perspective and no association between social support and sickness absence.

The magnetic variability of the β cep star ξ1 CMa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Järvinen, S. P.; Hubrig, S.; Schöller, M.; Ilyin, I.

2018-07-01

ξ1 CMa is a known magnetic star showing rotationally modulated magnetic variability with a period of 2.17937 d. However, recent work based on high-resolution spectropolarimetry suggests that the rotation period is longer than 30 years. We compare our new spectropolarimetric measurements with FORS 2 at the VLT acquired on three consecutive nights in 2017 to previous FORS 1/2 measurements of the longitudinal magnetic field strength. The new longitudinal magnetic field values are in the range from 115 to 240 G and do not support the presence of a long period.

In severely suicidal young adults, hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and suicidal ideation constitute a single syndrome.

PubMed

Shahar, Golan; Bareket, Liad; Rudd, M David; Joiner, Thomas E

2006-07-01

Despite voluminous research on the role of hopelessness and depression in suicidality, a systematic examination of various causal models pertaining to these variables is conspicuous in its absence. The directions of relationships between the three variables were examined by means of a prospective-longitudinal, cross-lagged, three-wave design in a severely suicidal young adults. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analyses revealed synchronous, but not longitudinal, associations between hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and suicidal ideation. In severely suicidal young adults, the three clinical constructs appear to constitute a single depressive syndrome.

The development of video game enjoyment in a role playing game.

PubMed

Wirth, Werner; Ryffel, Fabian; von Pape, Thilo; Karnowski, Veronika

2013-04-01

This study examines the development of video game enjoyment over time. The results of a longitudinal study (N=62) show that enjoyment increases over several sessions. Moreover, results of a multilevel regression model indicate a causal link between the dependent variable video game enjoyment and the predictor variables exploratory behavior, spatial presence, competence, suspense and solution, and simulated experiences of life. These findings are important for video game research because they reveal the antecedents of video game enjoyment in a real-world longitudinal setting. Results are discussed in terms of the dynamics of video game enjoyment under real-world conditions.

Brachial artery vasomotion and transducer pressure effect on measurements by active contour segmentation on ultrasound

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cary, Theodore W.; Sultan, Laith R.; Sehgal, Chandra M., E-mail: sehgalc@uphs.upenn.edu

Purpose: To use feed-forward active contours (snakes) to track and measure brachial artery vasomotion on ultrasound images recorded in both transverse and longitudinal views; and to compare the algorithm's performance in each view. Methods: Longitudinal and transverse view ultrasound image sequences of 45 brachial arteries were segmented by feed-forward active contour (FFAC). The segmented regions were used to measure vasomotion artery diameter, cross-sectional area, and distention both as peak-to-peak diameter and as area. ECG waveforms were also simultaneously extracted frame-by-frame by thresholding a running finite-difference image between consecutive images. The arterial and ECG waveforms were compared as they traced eachmore » phase of the cardiac cycle. Results: FFAC successfully segmented arteries in longitudinal and transverse views in all 45 cases. The automated analysis took significantly less time than manual tracing, but produced superior, well-behaved arterial waveforms. Automated arterial measurements also had lower interobserver variability as measured by correlation, difference in mean values, and coefficient of variation. Although FFAC successfully segmented both the longitudinal and transverse images, transverse measurements were less variable. The cross-sectional area computed from the longitudinal images was 27% lower than the area measured from transverse images, possibly due to the compression of the artery along the image depth by transducer pressure. Conclusions: FFAC is a robust and sensitive vasomotion segmentation algorithm in both transverse and longitudinal views. Transverse imaging may offer advantages over longitudinal imaging: transverse measurements are more consistent, possibly because the method is less sensitive to variations in transducer pressure during imaging.« less

Assessment of regional systolic and diastolic myocardial function using tissue Doppler and strain imaging in dogs with dilated cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Chetboul, Valérie; Gouni, Vassiliki; Sampedrano, Carolina Carlos; Tissier, Renaud; Serres, François; Pouchelon, Jean-Louis

2007-01-01

Tissue Doppler Imaging (TDI) or strain (St) imaging could provide sensitive indices for early detection and treatment follow-up of canine dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). Analysis of TDI and St features in dogs with overt DCM is a prerequisite before using these new criteria in prospective screenings of predisposed families or in clinical trials. Radial and longitudinal right and left myocardial motion, assessed by TDI and St variables, is altered in dogs with DCM. Case records for 26 dogs; 14 with DCM and 12 healthy controls of comparable age and weight were reviewed. A retrospective analysis was conducted of conventional echocardiography, 2-dimensional color TDI, and St imaging data. The DCM group was characterized by decreases in radial and longitudinal systolic velocity gradients of the left ventricular free wall (LVFW), radial and longitudinal absolute values of peak systolic St of the LVFW, and longitudinal systolic right ventricular (RV) velocities (all P < .001 versus control) associated with longitudinal postsystolic contraction waves in 7/14 dogs. Early diastolic LVFW velocities also were decreased for longitudinal (P < .01) and radial (P < .05) motions. All radial LVFW, longitudinal basal LVFW, and RV systolic velocities were negatively correlated with heart rate (P < .01). LV contractility along both the short and long axes is impaired in dogs with spontaneous DCM, as is systolic RV and diastolic LVFW function. These myocardial alterations are associated with an inverse force-frequency relationship. Studies now are needed to determine the comparative sensitivity of TDI and St variables for the early detection of canine DCM.

Brachial artery vasomotion and transducer pressure effect on measurements by active contour segmentation on ultrasound.

PubMed

Cary, Theodore W; Reamer, Courtney B; Sultan, Laith R; Mohler, Emile R; Sehgal, Chandra M

2014-02-01

To use feed-forward active contours (snakes) to track and measure brachial artery vasomotion on ultrasound images recorded in both transverse and longitudinal views; and to compare the algorithm's performance in each view. Longitudinal and transverse view ultrasound image sequences of 45 brachial arteries were segmented by feed-forward active contour (FFAC). The segmented regions were used to measure vasomotion artery diameter, cross-sectional area, and distention both as peak-to-peak diameter and as area. ECG waveforms were also simultaneously extracted frame-by-frame by thresholding a running finite-difference image between consecutive images. The arterial and ECG waveforms were compared as they traced each phase of the cardiac cycle. FFAC successfully segmented arteries in longitudinal and transverse views in all 45 cases. The automated analysis took significantly less time than manual tracing, but produced superior, well-behaved arterial waveforms. Automated arterial measurements also had lower interobserver variability as measured by correlation, difference in mean values, and coefficient of variation. Although FFAC successfully segmented both the longitudinal and transverse images, transverse measurements were less variable. The cross-sectional area computed from the longitudinal images was 27% lower than the area measured from transverse images, possibly due to the compression of the artery along the image depth by transducer pressure. FFAC is a robust and sensitive vasomotion segmentation algorithm in both transverse and longitudinal views. Transverse imaging may offer advantages over longitudinal imaging: transverse measurements are more consistent, possibly because the method is less sensitive to variations in transducer pressure during imaging.

Brachial artery vasomotion and transducer pressure effect on measurements by active contour segmentation on ultrasound

PubMed Central

Cary, Theodore W.; Reamer, Courtney B.; Sultan, Laith R.; Mohler, Emile R.; Sehgal, Chandra M.

2014-01-01

Purpose: To use feed-forward active contours (snakes) to track and measure brachial artery vasomotion on ultrasound images recorded in both transverse and longitudinal views; and to compare the algorithm's performance in each view. Methods: Longitudinal and transverse view ultrasound image sequences of 45 brachial arteries were segmented by feed-forward active contour (FFAC). The segmented regions were used to measure vasomotion artery diameter, cross-sectional area, and distention both as peak-to-peak diameter and as area. ECG waveforms were also simultaneously extracted frame-by-frame by thresholding a running finite-difference image between consecutive images. The arterial and ECG waveforms were compared as they traced each phase of the cardiac cycle. Results: FFAC successfully segmented arteries in longitudinal and transverse views in all 45 cases. The automated analysis took significantly less time than manual tracing, but produced superior, well-behaved arterial waveforms. Automated arterial measurements also had lower interobserver variability as measured by correlation, difference in mean values, and coefficient of variation. Although FFAC successfully segmented both the longitudinal and transverse images, transverse measurements were less variable. The cross-sectional area computed from the longitudinal images was 27% lower than the area measured from transverse images, possibly due to the compression of the artery along the image depth by transducer pressure. Conclusions: FFAC is a robust and sensitive vasomotion segmentation algorithm in both transverse and longitudinal views. Transverse imaging may offer advantages over longitudinal imaging: transverse measurements are more consistent, possibly because the method is less sensitive to variations in transducer pressure during imaging. PMID:24506648

Delineation of Spatial Variability in the Temperature-Mortality Relationship on Extremely Hot Days in Greater Vancouver, Canada.

PubMed

Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Walker, Blake Byron; Henderson, Sarah B

2017-01-01

Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extremely hot weather. The health risks associated with extemely hot weather are not uniform across affected areas owing to variability in heat exposure and social vulnerability, but these differences are challenging to map with precision. We developed a spatially and temporally stratified case-crossover approach for delineation of areas with higher and lower risks of mortality on extremely hot days and applied this approach in greater Vancouver, Canada. Records of all deaths with an extremely hot day as a case day or a control day were extracted from an administrative vital statistics database spanning the years of 1998-2014. Three heat exposure and 11 social vulnerability variables were assigned at the residential location of each decedent. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio for a 1°C increase in daily mean temperature at a fixed site with an interaction term for decedents living above and below different values of the spatial variables. The heat exposure and social vulnerability variables with the strongest spatially stratified results were the apparent temperature and the labor nonparticipation rate, respectively. Areas at higher risk had values ≥ 34.4°C for the maximum apparent temperature and ≥ 60% of the population neither employed nor looking for work. These variables were combined in a composite index to quantify their interaction and to enhance visualization of high-risk areas. Our methods provide a data-driven framework for spatial delineation of the temperature--mortality relationship by heat exposure and social vulnerability. The results can be used to map and target the most vulnerable areas for public health intervention. Citation: Ho HC, Knudby A, Walker BB, Henderson SB. 2017. Delineation of spatial variability in the temperature-mortality relationship on extremely hot days in greater Vancouver, Canada. Environ Health Perspect 125:66-75; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP224.

Delineation of Spatial Variability in the Temperature–Mortality Relationship on Extremely Hot Days in Greater Vancouver, Canada

PubMed Central

Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Walker, Blake Byron; Henderson, Sarah B.

2016-01-01

Background: Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extremely hot weather. The health risks associated with extemely hot weather are not uniform across affected areas owing to variability in heat exposure and social vulnerability, but these differences are challenging to map with precision. Objectives: We developed a spatially and temporally stratified case-crossover approach for delineation of areas with higher and lower risks of mortality on extremely hot days and applied this approach in greater Vancouver, Canada. Methods: Records of all deaths with an extremely hot day as a case day or a control day were extracted from an administrative vital statistics database spanning the years of 1998–2014. Three heat exposure and 11 social vulnerability variables were assigned at the residential location of each decedent. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio for a 1°C increase in daily mean temperature at a fixed site with an interaction term for decedents living above and below different values of the spatial variables. Results: The heat exposure and social vulnerability variables with the strongest spatially stratified results were the apparent temperature and the labor nonparticipation rate, respectively. Areas at higher risk had values ≥ 34.4°C for the maximum apparent temperature and ≥ 60% of the population neither employed nor looking for work. These variables were combined in a composite index to quantify their interaction and to enhance visualization of high-risk areas. Conclusions: Our methods provide a data-driven framework for spatial delineation of the temperature-–mortality relationship by heat exposure and social vulnerability. The results can be used to map and target the most vulnerable areas for public health intervention. Citation: Ho HC, Knudby A, Walker BB, Henderson SB. 2017. Delineation of spatial variability in the temperature–mortality relationship on extremely hot days in greater Vancouver, Canada. Environ Health Perspect 125:66–75; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP224 PMID:27346526

Using Atmospheric Circulation Patterns to Detect and Attribute Changes in the Risk of Extreme Climate Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Horton, D. E.; Singh, D.; Swain, D. L.; Touma, D. E.; Mankin, J. S.

2015-12-01

Because of the high cost of extreme events and the growing evidence that global warming is likely to alter the statistical distribution of climate variables, detection and attribution of changes in the probability of extreme climate events has become a pressing topic for the scientific community, elected officials, and the public. While most of the emphasis has thus far focused on analyzing the climate variable of interest (most often temperature or precipitation, but also flooding and drought), there is an emerging emphasis on applying detection and attribution analysis techniques to the underlying physical causes of individual extreme events. This approach is promising in part because the underlying physical causes (such as atmospheric circulation patterns) can in some cases be more accurately represented in climate models than the more proximal climate variable (such as precipitation). In addition, and more scientifically critical, is the fact that the most extreme events result from a rare combination of interacting causes, often referred to as "ingredients". Rare events will therefore always have a strong influence of "natural" variability. Analyzing the underlying physical mechanisms can therefore help to test whether there have been changes in the probability of the constituent conditions of an individual event, or whether the co-occurrence of causal conditions cannot be distinguished from random chance. This presentation will review approaches to applying detection/attribution analysis to the underlying physical causes of extreme events (including both "thermodynamic" and "dynamic" causes), and provide a number of case studies, including the role of frequency of atmospheric circulation patterns in the probability of hot, cold, wet and dry events.

Childhood Gender-Typed Behavior and Adolescent Sexual Orientation: A Longitudinal Population-Based Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Gu; Kung, Karson T. F.; Hines, Melissa

2017-01-01

Lesbian and gay individuals have been reported to show more interest in other-sex, and/or less interest in same-sex, toys, playmates, and activities in childhood than heterosexual counterparts. Yet, most of the relevant evidence comes from retrospective studies or from prospective studies of clinically referred, extremely gender nonconforming…

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

PubMed Central

Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

2014-01-01

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

A flight-test and simulation evaluation of the longitudinal final approach and landing performance of an automatic system for a light wing loading STOL aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, S. C.; Hardy, G. H.; Hindson, W. S.

1983-01-01

As part of a comprehensive flight-test program of STOL operating systems for the terminal area, an automatic landing system was developed and evaluated for a light wing loading turboprop aircraft. The aircraft utilized an onboard advanced digital avionics system. Flight tests were conducted at a facility that included a STOL runway site with a microwave landing system. Longitudinal flight-test results were presented and compared with available (basically CTOL) criteria. These comparisons were augmented by results from a comprehensive simulation of the controlled aircraft which included representations of navigation errors that were encountered in flight and atmospheric disturbances. Acceptable performance on final approach and at touchdown was achieved by the autoland (automatic landing) system for the moderate winds and turbulence conditions encountered in flight. However, some touchdown performance goals were marginally achieved, and simulation results suggested that difficulties could be encountered in the presence of more extreme atmospheric conditions. Suggestions were made for improving performance under those more extreme conditions.

A modulation technique for the measurement of the DC longitudinal Faraday effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunte, Carlos

2018-03-01

A modulation of light technique, using a lock-in amplifier, is described and tested to investigate the longitudinal Faraday effect in isotropic media. The Faraday rotation is measured directly from the lock-in amplifier. The Verdet constant and dispersion of lead-silica SF-59 Schott glass, at room temperature of 25 °C, were determined for varying wavelengths and expressions for their wavelength dependence were determined. The Verdet constant of water is also investigated. The results compare extremely well with other studies. The technique is suited to measure very small Verdet constants and can be easily conducted in an upper-level undergraduate laboratory.

Within-subject template estimation for unbiased longitudinal image analysis.

PubMed

Reuter, Martin; Schmansky, Nicholas J; Rosas, H Diana; Fischl, Bruce

2012-07-16

Longitudinal image analysis has become increasingly important in clinical studies of normal aging and neurodegenerative disorders. Furthermore, there is a growing appreciation of the potential utility of longitudinally acquired structural images and reliable image processing to evaluate disease modifying therapies. Challenges have been related to the variability that is inherent in the available cross-sectional processing tools, to the introduction of bias in longitudinal processing and to potential over-regularization. In this paper we introduce a novel longitudinal image processing framework, based on unbiased, robust, within-subject template creation, for automatic surface reconstruction and segmentation of brain MRI of arbitrarily many time points. We demonstrate that it is essential to treat all input images exactly the same as removing only interpolation asymmetries is not sufficient to remove processing bias. We successfully reduce variability and avoid over-regularization by initializing the processing in each time point with common information from the subject template. The presented results show a significant increase in precision and discrimination power while preserving the ability to detect large anatomical deviations; as such they hold great potential in clinical applications, e.g. allowing for smaller sample sizes or shorter trials to establish disease specific biomarkers or to quantify drug effects. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Variability of hydrological extreme events in East Asia and their dynamical control: a comparison between observations and two high-resolution global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freychet, N.; Duchez, A.; Wu, C.-H.; Chen, C.-A.; Hsu, H.-H.; Hirschi, J.; Forryan, A.; Sinha, B.; New, A. L.; Graham, T.; Andrews, M. B.; Tu, C.-Y.; Lin, S.-J.

2017-02-01

This work investigates the variability of extreme weather events (drought spells, DS15, and daily heavy rainfall, PR99) over East Asia. It particularly focuses on the large scale atmospheric circulation associated with high levels of the occurrence of these extreme events. Two observational datasets (APHRODITE and PERSIANN) are compared with two high-resolution global climate models (HiRAM and HadGEM3-GC2) and an ensemble of other lower resolution climate models from CMIP5. We first evaluate the performance of the high resolution models. They both exhibit good skill in reproducing extreme events, especially when compared with CMIP5 results. Significant differences exist between the two observational datasets, highlighting the difficulty of having a clear estimate of extreme events. The link between the variability of the extremes and the large scale circulation is investigated, on monthly and interannual timescales, using composite and correlation analyses. Both extreme indices DS15 and PR99 are significantly linked to the low level wind intensity over East Asia, i.e. the monsoon circulation. It is also found that DS15 events are strongly linked to the surface temperature over the Siberian region and to the land-sea pressure contrast, while PR99 events are linked to the sea surface temperature anomalies over the West North Pacific. These results illustrate the importance of the monsoon circulation on extremes over East Asia. The dependencies on of the surface temperature over the continent and the sea surface temperature raise the question as to what extent they could affect the occurrence of extremes over tropical regions in future projections.

Does a web-based feedback training program result in improved reliability in clinicians' ratings of the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) Scale?

PubMed

Støre-Valen, Jakob; Ryum, Truls; Pedersen, Geir A F; Pripp, Are H; Jose, Paul E; Karterud, Sigmund

2015-09-01

The Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) Scale is used in routine clinical practice and research to estimate symptom and functional severity and longitudinal change. Concerns about poor interrater reliability have been raised, and the present study evaluated the effect of a Web-based GAF training program designed to improve interrater reliability in routine clinical practice. Clinicians rated up to 20 vignettes online, and received deviation scores as immediate feedback (i.e., own scores compared with expert raters) after each rating. Growth curves of absolute SD scores across the vignettes were modeled. A linear mixed effects model, using the clinician's deviation scores from expert raters as the dependent variable, indicated an improvement in reliability during training. Moderation by content of scale (symptoms; functioning), scale range (average; extreme), previous experience with GAF rating, profession, and postgraduate training were assessed. Training reduced deviation scores for inexperienced GAF raters, for individuals in clinical professions other than nursing and medicine, and for individuals with no postgraduate specialization. In addition, training was most beneficial for cases with average severity of symptoms compared with cases with extreme severity. The results support the use of Web-based training with feedback routines as a means to improve the reliability of GAF ratings performed by clinicians in mental health practice. These results especially pertain to clinicians in mental health practice who do not have a masters or doctoral degree. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Effect of transmission intensity on hotspots and micro-epidemiology of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Mogeni, Polycarp; Omedo, Irene; Nyundo, Christopher; Kamau, Alice; Noor, Abdisalan; Bejon, Philip

2017-06-30

Malaria transmission intensity is heterogeneous, complicating the implementation of malaria control interventions. We provide a description of the spatial micro-epidemiology of symptomatic malaria and asymptomatic parasitaemia in multiple sites. We assembled data from 19 studies conducted between 1996 and 2015 in seven countries of sub-Saharan Africa with homestead-level geospatial data. Data from each site were used to quantify spatial autocorrelation and examine the temporal stability of hotspots. Parameters from these analyses were examined to identify trends over varying transmission intensity. Significant hotspots of malaria transmission were observed in most years and sites. The risk ratios of malaria within hotspots were highest at low malaria positive fractions (MPFs) and decreased with increasing MPF (p < 0.001). However, statistical significance of hotspots was lowest at extremely low and extremely high MPFs, with a peak in statistical significance at an MPF of ~0.3. In four sites with longitudinal data we noted temporal instability and variable negative correlations between MPF and average age of symptomatic malaria across all sites, suggesting varying degrees of temporal stability. We observed geographical micro-variation in malaria transmission at sites with a variety of transmission intensities across sub-Saharan Africa. Hotspots are marked at lower transmission intensity, but it becomes difficult to show statistical significance when cases are sparse at very low transmission intensity. Given the predictability with which hotspots occur as transmission intensity falls, malaria control programmes should have a low threshold for responding to apparent clustering of cases.

Measuring Variability and Change with an Item Response Model for Polytomous Variables.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eid, Michael; Hoffman, Lore

1998-01-01

An extension of the graded-response model of F. Samejima (1969) is presented for the measurement of variability and change. The model is illustrated with a longitudinal study of student interest in radioactivity conducted with about 1,200 German students in elementary school when the study began. (SLD)

Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

2013-12-01

Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for better informed decision-making on adaptation strategies. References 1. Coumou, D. & Rahmstorf, S. A decade of extremes. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 491-496 (2012). 2. Rötter, R. P., Carter, T. R., Olesen, J. E. & Porter, J. R. Crop-climate models need an overhaul. Nature Clim. Change, 1, 175-177 (2011). 3. Asseng, S. et al., Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Clim. Change. 10.1038/nclimate1916. (2013). 4. Porter, J.R., & Semenov, M., Crop responses to climatic variation . Trans. R. Soc. B., 360, 2021-2035 (2005). 5. Porter, J.R. & Christensen, S. Deconstructing crop processes and models via identities. Plant, Cell and Environment . doi: 10.1111/pce.12107 (2013). 6. Boogaard, H.L., van Diepen C.A., Rötter R.P., Cabrera J.M. & van Laar H.H. User's guide for the WOFOST 7.1 crop growth simulation model and Control Center 1.5, Alterra, Wageningen, The Netherlands. (1998) 7. Tao, F. & Zhang, Z. Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: a new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agric. Forest Meteorol., 170, 146-165. (2013).

Generation of multivariate near shore extreme wave conditions based on an extreme value copula for offshore boundary conditions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leyssen, Gert; Mercelis, Peter; De Schoesitter, Philippe; Blanckaert, Joris

2013-04-01

Near shore extreme wave conditions, used as input for numerical wave agitation simulations and for the dimensioning of coastal defense structures, need to be determined at a harbour entrance situated at the French North Sea coast. To obtain significant wave heights, the numerical wave model SWAN has been used. A multivariate approach was used to account for the joint probabilities. Considered variables are: wind velocity and direction, water level and significant offshore wave height and wave period. In a first step a univariate extreme value distribution has been determined for the main variables. By means of a technique based on the mean excess function, an appropriate member of the GPD is selected. An optimal threshold for peak over threshold selection is determined by maximum likelihood optimization. Next, the joint dependency structure for the primary random variables is modeled by an extreme value copula. Eventually the multivariate domain of variables was stratified in different classes, each of which representing a combination of variable quantiles with a joint probability, which are used for model simulation. The main variable is the wind velocity, as in the area of concern extreme wave conditions are wind driven. The analysis is repeated for 9 different wind directions. The secondary variable is water level. In shallow waters extreme waves will be directly affected by water depth. Hence the joint probability of occurrence for water level and wave height is of major importance for design of coastal defense structures. Wind velocity and water levels are only dependent for some wind directions (wind induced setup). Dependent directions are detected using a Kendall and Spearman test and appeared to be those with the longest fetch. For these directions, wind velocity and water level extreme value distributions are multivariately linked through a Gumbel Copula. These distributions are stratified into classes of which the frequency of occurrence can be calculated. For the remaining directions the univariate extreme wind velocity distribution is stratified, each class combined with 5 high water levels. The wave height at the model boundaries was taken into account by a regression with the extreme wind velocity at the offshore location. The regression line and the 95% confidence limits where combined with each class. Eventually the wave period is computed by a new regression with the significant wave height. This way 1103 synthetic events were selected and simulated with the SWAN wave model, each of which a frequency of occurrence is calculated for. Hence near shore significant wave heights are obtained with corresponding frequencies. The statistical distribution of the near shore wave heights is determined by sorting the model results in a descending order and accumulating the corresponding frequencies. This approach allows determination of conditional return periods. For example, for the imposed univariate design return periods of 100 years for significant wave height and 30 years for water level, the joint return period for a simultaneous exceedance of both conditions can be computed as 4000 years. Hence, this methodology allows for a probabilistic design of coastal defense structures.

Movie Smoking Exposure and Smoking Onset: A Longitudinal Study of Mediation Processes in a Representative Sample of U.S. Adolescents

PubMed Central

Wills, Thomas A.; Sargent, James D.; Stoolmiller, Mike; Gibbons, Frederick X.; Gerrard, Meg

2009-01-01

The authors tested 2 mechanisms for the relation of movie smoking exposure with onset of cigarette smoking in adolescence. Longitudinal data with 8-month follow-up were obtained from a representative sample of 6,522 U.S. adolescents, ages 10–14 years. Structural modeling analysis based on initial nonsmokers, which controlled for 10 covariates associated with movie exposure, showed that viewing more smoking in movies was related to increases in positive expectancies about smoking and increases in affiliation with smoking peers, and these variables were both related to smoking onset. A direct effect of movie exposure on smoking onset was also noted. Mediation findings were replicated across cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses. Tests for gender differences indicated that girls showed larger effects of movie exposure for some variables. Implications for policy and prevention research are discussed. PMID:18540724

From Drought to Flood: Biological Responses of Large River Salmonids and Emergent Management Challenges Under California's Extreme Hydroclimatic Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, C.

2017-12-01

California's hydroclimatic regime is characterized by extreme interannual variability including periodic, multi-year droughts and winter flooding sequences. Statewide, water years 2012-2016 were characterized by extreme drought followed by likely one of the wettest years on record in water year 2017. Similar drought-flood patterns have occurred multiple times both in the contemporary empirical record and reconstructed climate records. Both the extreme magnitude and rapid succession of these hydroclimatic periods pose difficult challenges for water managers and regulatory agencies responsible for providing instream flows to protect and recover threatened and endangered fish species. Principal among these riverine fish species are federally listed winter-run and spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), Central Valley steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and the pelagic species Delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). Poor instream conditions from 2012-2016 resulted in extremely low abundance estimates and poor overall fish health, and while fish monitoring results from water year 2017 are too preliminary to draw substantive conclusions, early indicators show continued downward population trends despite the historically wet conditions. This poster evaluates California's hydroclimatic conditions over the past decade and quantifies resultant impacts of the 2012-2016 drought and the extremely wet 2017 water year to both adult escapement and juvenile production estimates in California's major inland salmon rivers over that same time span. We will also examine local, state, and federal regulatory actions both in response to the extreme hydroclimatic variability and in preparation for future drought-flood sequences.

Influence of Climate Oscillations on Extreme Precipitation in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatia, N.; Singh, V. P.; Srivastav, R. K.

2016-12-01

Much research in the field of hydroclimatology is focusing on the impact of climate variability on hydrologic extremes. Recent studies show that the unique geographical location and the enormous areal extent, coupled with extensive variations in climate oscillations, have intensified the regional hydrologic cycle of Texas. The state-wide extreme precipitation events can actually be attributed to sea-surface pressure and temperature anomalies, such as Bermuda High and Jet Streams, which are further triggered by such climate oscillations. This study aims to quantify the impact of five major Atlantic and Pacific Ocean related climate oscillations: (i) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), (ii) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), (iii) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), (iv) Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), and (v) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), on extreme precipitation in Texas. Their respective effects will be determined for both climate divisions delineated by the National Climatic Data Centre (NCDC) and climate regions defined by the Köppen Climate Classification System. This study will adopt a weighted correlation approach to attain the robust correlation coefficients while addressing the regionally variable data outliers for extreme precipitation. Further, the variation of robust correlation coefficients across Texas is found to be related to the station elevation, historical average temperature, and total precipitation in the months of extremes. The research will shed light on the relationship between precipitation extremes and climate variability, thus aiding regional water boards in planning, designing, and managing the respective systems as per the future climate change.

Longitudinal Changes in Functioning and Disability in Patients with Disorders of Consciousness: The Importance of Environmental Factors

PubMed Central

Willems, Michelle; Sattin, Davide; Vingerhoets, Ad J.J.M.; Leonardi, Matilde

2015-01-01

Disorders of consciousness are neurological conditions associated with low levels of functioning which pose a serious challenge to public health systems. The current study aimed to examine longitudinal changes in functioning in patients with disorders of consciousness and to identify associated biopsychosocial factors using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health. An Italian sample of 248 patients was assessed longitudinally. Differences in relative variability (an index of change that controls for baseline levels) between acute and chronic patients and predictors of relative variability in “Activities & Participation” were examined. Results showed that there were subgroups of patients whose functioning improved over time. The number of problems in “Activities & Participation” decreased in acute patients over time, whereas in chronic patients, an increase was found. The significant difference in relative variability for the environmental factor “support and relationships” reflects the increase in facilitators in acute patients, whereas the number of facilitators in chronic patients remained unchanged over time. Age at event, time from event, and relative variability in “Environmental Factors” were significant predictors of relative variability in “Activities & Participation”. It is of clinical relevance that patients with disorders of consciousness are kept in a supportive and facilitative environment, in order to prevent a decline in their functioning. Moreover, caregivers should receive tailored support in order to enhance and facilitate appropriate care of patients with disorders of consciousness. PMID:25837348

Don't forget about syphilis.

PubMed

Chacon, Anna H

2015-08-01

Syphilis has extremely variable manifestations that produce an extremely broad differential diagnosis. Care must be taken to consider syphilis in dermatologic and other systemic disorders as is relevant.

Individual and social determinants of multiple chronic disease behavioral risk factors among youth.

PubMed

Alamian, Arsham; Paradis, Gilles

2012-03-22

Behavioral risk factors are known to co-occur among youth, and to increase risks of chronic diseases morbidity and mortality later in life. However, little is known about determinants of multiple chronic disease behavioral risk factors, particularly among youth. Previous studies have been cross-sectional and carried out without a sound theoretical framework. Using longitudinal data (n = 1135) from Cycle 4 (2000-2001), Cycle 5 (2002-2003) and Cycle 6 (2004-2005) of the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth, a nationally representative sample of Canadian children who are followed biennially, the present study examines the influence of a set of conceptually-related individual/social distal variables (variables situated at an intermediate distance from behaviors), and individual/social ultimate variables (variables situated at an utmost distance from behaviors) on the rate of occurrence of multiple behavioral risk factors (physical inactivity, sedentary behavior, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, and high body mass index) in a sample of children aged 10-11 years at baseline. Multiple behavioral risk factors were assessed using a multiple risk factor score. All statistical analyses were performed using SAS, version 9.1, and SUDAAN, version 9.01. Multivariate longitudinal Poisson models showed that social distal variables including parental/peer smoking and peer drinking (Log-likelihood ratio (LLR) = 187.86, degrees of freedom (DF) = 8, p < .001), as well as individual distal variables including low self-esteem (LLR = 76.94, DF = 4, p < .001) increased the rate of occurrence of multiple behavioral risk factors. Individual ultimate variables including age, sex, and anxiety (LLR = 9.34, DF = 3, p < .05), as well as social ultimate variables including family socioeconomic status, and family structure (LLR = 10.93, DF = 5, p = .05) contributed minimally to the rate of co-occurrence of behavioral risk factors. The results suggest targeting individual/social distal variables in prevention programs of multiple chronic disease behavioral risk factors among youth.

AgMIP Regional Activities in a Global Framework: The Brazil Experience

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Assad, Eduardo D.; Marin, Fabio R.; Valdivia, Roberto O.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.

2012-01-01

Climate variability and change are projected to increate the frequency of extreme high-temperature events, floods, and droughts, which can lead to subsequent changes in soil moister in many locations (Alexandrov and Hoogenboom, 2000). In Brazil, observations reveal a tendency for increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events particularly in south Brazil (Alexander et al., 2006; Carvalho et al., 2014; Groissman et al., 2005), as well as projections for increasing extremes in both maximum and minimum temperatures and high spatial variability for rainfall under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios (Marengo et al., 2009).

Removing Batch Effects from Longitudinal Gene Expression - Quantile Normalization Plus ComBat as Best Approach for Microarray Transcriptome Data

PubMed Central

Müller, Christian; Schillert, Arne; Röthemeier, Caroline; Trégouët, David-Alexandre; Proust, Carole; Binder, Harald; Pfeiffer, Norbert; Beutel, Manfred; Lackner, Karl J.; Schnabel, Renate B.; Tiret, Laurence; Wild, Philipp S.; Blankenberg, Stefan

2016-01-01

Technical variation plays an important role in microarray-based gene expression studies, and batch effects explain a large proportion of this noise. It is therefore mandatory to eliminate technical variation while maintaining biological variability. Several strategies have been proposed for the removal of batch effects, although they have not been evaluated in large-scale longitudinal gene expression data. In this study, we aimed at identifying a suitable method for batch effect removal in a large study of microarray-based longitudinal gene expression. Monocytic gene expression was measured in 1092 participants of the Gutenberg Health Study at baseline and 5-year follow up. Replicates of selected samples were measured at both time points to identify technical variability. Deming regression, Passing-Bablok regression, linear mixed models, non-linear models as well as ReplicateRUV and ComBat were applied to eliminate batch effects between replicates. In a second step, quantile normalization prior to batch effect correction was performed for each method. Technical variation between batches was evaluated by principal component analysis. Associations between body mass index and transcriptomes were calculated before and after batch removal. Results from association analyses were compared to evaluate maintenance of biological variability. Quantile normalization, separately performed in each batch, combined with ComBat successfully reduced batch effects and maintained biological variability. ReplicateRUV performed perfectly in the replicate data subset of the study, but failed when applied to all samples. All other methods did not substantially reduce batch effects in the replicate data subset. Quantile normalization plus ComBat appears to be a valuable approach for batch correction in longitudinal gene expression data. PMID:27272489

Understanding extreme quasar optical variability with CRTS - I. Major AGN flares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Matthew J.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Drake, Andrew J.; Stern, Daniel; Mahabal, Ashish A.; Glikman, Eilat; Larson, Steve; Christensen, Eric

2017-10-01

There is a large degree of variety in the optical variability of quasars and it is unclear whether this is all attributable to a single (set of) physical mechanism(s). We present the results of a systematic search for major flares in active galactic nucleus (AGN) in the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey as part of a broader study into extreme quasar variability. Such flares are defined in a quantitative manner as being atop of the normal, stochastic variability of quasars. We have identified 51 events from over 900 000 known quasars and high-probability quasar candidates, typically lasting 900 d and with a median peak amplitude of Δm = 1.25 mag. Characterizing the flare profile with a Weibull distribution, we find that nine of the sources are well described by a single-point single-lens model. This supports the proposal by Lawrence et al. that microlensing is a plausible physical mechanism for extreme variability. However, we attribute the majority of our events to explosive stellar-related activity in the accretion disc: superluminous supernovae, tidal disruption events and mergers of stellar mass black holes.

Determinants of Wealth Fluctuation: Changes in Hard-To-Measure Economic Variables in a Panel Study

PubMed Central

Pfeffer, Fabian T.; Griffin, Jamie

2017-01-01

Measuring fluctuation in families’ economic conditions is the raison d’être of household panel studies. Accordingly, a particularly challenging critique is that extreme fluctuation in measured economic characteristics might indicate compounding measurement error rather than actual changes in families’ economic wellbeing. In this article, we address this claim by moving beyond the assumption that particularly large fluctuation in economic conditions might be too large to be realistic. Instead, we examine predictors of large fluctuation, capturing sources related to actual socio-economic changes as well as potential sources of measurement error. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we study between-wave changes in a dimension of economic wellbeing that is especially hard to measure, namely, net worth as an indicator of total family wealth. Our results demonstrate that even very large between-wave changes in net worth can be attributed to actual socio-economic and demographic processes. We do, however, also identify a potential source of measurement error that contributes to large wealth fluctuation, namely, the treatment of incomplete information, presenting a pervasive challenge for any longitudinal survey that includes questions on economic assets. Our results point to ways for improving wealth variables both in the data collection process (e.g., by measuring active savings) and in data processing (e.g., by improving imputation algorithms). PMID:28316752

Changes in verbal learning and memory in schizophrenia and non-psychotic controls in midlife: A nine-year follow-up in the Northern Finland Birth Cohort study 1966.

PubMed

Rannikko, Irina; Haapea, Marianne; Miettunen, Jouko; Veijola, Juha; Murray, Graham K; Barnett, Jennifer H; Husa, Anja P; Jones, Peter B; Isohanni, Matti; Jääskeläinen, Erika

2015-08-30

Findings on longitudinal change of cognitive performance in schizophrenia are extremely variable in the case of verbal learning and memory, and it is still unclear which dimensions of verbal learning and memory exhibit possible deterioration over the long-term. Our aim was to compare the change in verbal learning and memory in individuals with schizophrenia 10-20 years after the illness onset and healthy controls during a nine-year follow-up in a general population sample. Our sample included 41 schizophrenia spectrum subjects and 73 controls from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort study 1966. The California Verbal Learning Test (CVLT) was used to estimate the degree of change in verbal learning and memory during a nine-year follow-up from age 34-years to 43- years. Both cases and controls deteriorated. There was statistically significant decline in two out of 20 CVLT items among cases and in 13 out of 20 CVLT items among controls. With the exception of two variables, the decline in verbal learning and memory over nine years was not significantly larger in cases. We conclude that during midlife verbal learning and memory in schizophrenia mostly declines in a normative fashion with aging at the same rate as the general population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Great Plains low-level jet in 1.5C and 2C HAPPI simulations: Implications for changes in extreme climate events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, S. J.; Barcikowska, M. J.

2017-12-01

Global temperature targets have become the cornerstone for global climate policy discussions. Given the goal of the Paris Accord to limit the rise in global mean temperature to well below 2.0oC above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts toward the more ambitious 1.5oC goal, there is increasing focus in the climate science community on what the relative changes in regional climate extremes may be for these two scenarios. Despite the successes of major climate science modeling efforts, there is still a significant information gap regarding the regional and seasonal changes in some climate extremes over the U.S. as a function of these global mean temperature targets.During the spring and summer, large amounts of heat and moisture are transported northward into the central and eastern U.S. by the Great Plains Low-Level Jet (GPLLJ) - an atmospheric river which dominates the subcontinental scale climate variability during the warm half of the year. Accordingly, the GPLLJ and its vast spatiotemporal variability is highly influential over several types of extreme climate anomalies east of the Rocky Mountains, including, drought and pluvial events, tornadic activity, and the evolution of central U.S warming hole. Changes in the GPLLJ and its variability are probed from the perspective of several hundred climate realizations afforded by the availability of climate model experiments from the Half a degree additional warming, Prognosis, and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) effort - a suite of multi-model ensemble AMIP simulations forced by 1.5oC and 2oC levels of global warming. The multimodel analysis focuses on the variable magnitude of the seasonal changes in the mean GPLLJ and shifts in the extremes of the prominent modes of GPLLJ variability - both of which have implications for the future shifts in extreme climate events over the Great Plains, Midwest, and southeast regions of the U.S.

The Longitudinal Relationship between the Use of Long-Term Care and Depressive Symptoms in Older Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pot, Anne Margriet; Deeg, Dorly J.H.; Twisk, Jos W.R.; Beekman, Aartjan T.F.; Zarit, Steven H.

2005-01-01

Purpose: The aim of this study was to estimate the longitudinal relationship between transitions in the use of long-term care and older adults' depressive symptoms and to investigate whether this relationship could be explained by markers of older adults' underlying health, or other variables including demographics, personality, and partner…

Longitudinal Relationships among Internalization of the Media Ideal, Peer Social Comparison, and Body Dissatisfaction: Implications for the Tripartite Influence Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodgers, Rachel F.; McLean, Siân A.; Paxton, Susan J.

2015-01-01

Sociocultural theory of body dissatisfaction posits that internalization of the media ideal and appearance comparison are predictors of body dissatisfaction, a key risk factor for eating disorders. However, no data exist regarding the longitudinal relationships between these variables. The aim of this study was to explore longitudinal…

Longitudinal Analysis of Links between Bullying Victimization and Psychosomatic Maladjustment in Swedish Schoolchildren

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hellfeldt, Karin; Gill, Peter Edward; Johansson, Björn

2018-01-01

Cross-sectional studies of bullying mask variability in categories of and persistence of bullying victimization. Longitudinal, individual-level data offers a greater insight into schoolchildren's psychosomatic maladjustment as a consequence of bullying. Swedish schoolchildren (n = 3,349), with unique identifiers, in 44 schools (4th-9th grade),…

Exercise and Three Psychosocial Variables: A Longitudinal Study.

DTIC Science & Technology

in whom, when, and where exercise participation (EX) has significant effects on depression (DEP), self - esteem (SE), and quality of life (QOL). Data...subgroups, Depression Longitudinal, Residualized gain analysis, Self - Esteem , Navy Men and Women....A predominant opinion in research and society today maintains that exercise is beneficial for the reduction of depression and enhancement of self

A Short-Term Longitudinal Study of Memorial Development during Early Grade School.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kunzinger, Edward L., III

1985-01-01

Overt rehearsal and free recall performance was analyzed longitudinally in two experimental testing sessions at 7 and later at 9 years of age. Measures of short- and long-term memory recall, and two measures of input processing were obtained. Significant increases between age levels were exhibited by all variables except short-term memory.…

Are Body Dissatisfaction, Eating Disturbance, and Body Mass Index Predictors of Suicidal Behavior in Adolescents? A Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crow, Scott; Eisenberg, Marla E.; Story, Mary; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

2008-01-01

Disordered eating, body dissatisfaction, and obesity have been associated cross sectionally with suicidal behavior in adolescents. To determine the extent to which these variables predicted suicidal ideation and attempts, the authors examined these relationships in a longitudinal design. The study population included 2,516 older adolescents and…

Time-to-Event Analysis of Individual Variables Associated with Nursing Students' Academic Failure: A Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dante, Angelo; Fabris, Stefano; Palese, Alvisa

2013-01-01

Empirical studies and conceptual frameworks presented in the extant literature offer a static imagining of academic failure. Time-to-event analysis, which captures the dynamism of individual factors, as when they determine the failure to properly tailor timely strategies, impose longitudinal studies which are still lacking within the field. The…

Variability in Fundamental Frequency during Speech in Prodromal and Incipient Parkinson's Disease: A Longitudinal Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harel, Brian; Cannizzaro, Michael; Snyder, Peter J.

2004-01-01

Nearly two centuries ago, Parkinson (1817) first observed that a particular pattern of speech changes occur in patients with idiopathic Parkinson's disease (PD). Numerous studies have documented these changes using a wide variety of acoustic measures, and yet few studies have attempted to quantify any such changes longitudinally, through the early…

Home Language and Language Proficiency; A Large-Scale Longitudinal Study in Dutch Primary Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Driessen, Geert; van der Slik, Frans; De Bot, Kees

2002-01-01

Reports on a large-scale longitudinal study into the development of language proficiency of Dutch primary school children aged 7-10. Data on language proficiency and a range of background variables were analyzed. Results suggest that while immigrant children develop their language skill in Dutch considerably over 2 years, they are nonetheless…

Colorism and Educational Outcomes of Asian Americans: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryabov, Igor

2016-01-01

Using a nationally representative longitudinal data set, the current study examines the link between colorism and educational attainment of Asian American young adults. Three levels of educational attainment are used as outcomes: high school diploma, some college and a Bachelor's degree or higher. Independent variables include skin tone, ethnic…

African American English-Speaking Students: A Longitudinal Examination of Style Shifting from Kindergarten through Second Grade

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Craig, Holly K.; Kolenic, Giselle E.; Hensel, Stephanie L.

2014-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this longitudinal study was twofold: to examine shifting from African American English (AAE) to mainstream American English (MAE) across the early elementary grades, when students are first exposed to formal instruction in reading; and to examine how metalinguistic and cognitive variables influenced the students' dialectal…

Predictors of the Acquisition and Portability of Transferable Skills: A Longitudinal Portuguese Case Study on Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rocha, Magda

2015-01-01

The basis for this longitudinal study was to find the predictors of transferable skills acquisition and portability among university sophomore students. The method employed was the path analysis using as variables: (1) the theoretical framework of transferable skills representations (Evers and Rush in "Manag Learn" 27(4):275-300, 1996;…

The Effects of Preschool Attendance & Kindergarten Schedule: Kindergarten through Grade Four. A Longitudinal Research Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ohio State Dept. of Education, Columbus. Div. of Early Childhood Education.

This longitudinal study examined the effects on children of three kindergarten schedules: half day, alternate day, and full day. A secondary purpose was to examine the relationship between preschool attendance and subsequent school performance. Two additional variables thought to be related to school success were also explored: children's gender,…

Means and extremes: building variability into community-level climate change experiments.

PubMed

Thompson, Ross M; Beardall, John; Beringer, Jason; Grace, Mike; Sardina, Paula

2013-06-01

Experimental studies assessing climatic effects on ecological communities have typically applied static warming treatments. Although these studies have been informative, they have usually failed to incorporate either current or predicted future, patterns of variability. Future climates are likely to include extreme events which have greater impacts on ecological systems than changes in means alone. Here, we review the studies which have used experiments to assess impacts of temperature on marine, freshwater and terrestrial communities, and classify them into a set of 'generations' based on how they incorporate variability. The majority of studies have failed to incorporate extreme events. In terrestrial ecosystems in particular, experimental treatments have reduced temperature variability, when most climate models predict increased variability. Marine studies have tended to not concentrate on changes in variability, likely in part because the thermal mass of oceans will moderate variation. In freshwaters, climate change experiments have a much shorter history than in the other ecosystems, and have tended to take a relatively simple approach. We propose a new 'generation' of climate change experiments using down-scaled climate models which incorporate predicted changes in climatic variability, and describe a process for generating data which can be applied as experimental climate change treatments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

DETERMINANTS OF TEMPORAL VARIABILITY IN NHEXAS-MARYLAND ENVIRONMENTAL CONCENTRATIONS, EXPOSURES, AND BIOMARKERS

EPA Science Inventory

The longitudinal NHEXAS-Maryland study measured metals, PAHs, and pesticides in several media to capture temporal variability. Questionnaires were concurrently administered to identify factors that influenced changes in contaminant levels over time. We constructed mixed-effects...

Wind-Tunnel Investigation of Effects of Unsymmetrical Horizontal-Tail Arrangements on Power-on Static Longitudinal Stability of a Single-Engine Airplane Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Purser, Paul E.; Spear, Margaret F.

1947-01-01

A wind-tunnel investigation has been made to determine the effects of unsymmetrical horizontal-tail arrangements on the power-on static longitudinal stability of a single-engine single-rotation airplane model. Although the tests and analyses showed that extreme asymmetry in the horizontal tail indicated a reduction in power effects on longitudinal stability for single-engine single-rotation airplanes, the particular "practical" arrangement tested did not show marked improvement. Differences in average downwash between the normal tail arrangement and various other tail arrangements estimated from computed values of propeller-slipstream rotation agreed with values estimated from pitching-moment test data for the flaps-up condition (low thrust and torque) and disagreed for the flaps-down condition (high thrust and torque). This disagreement indicated the necessity for continued research to determine the characteristics of the slip-stream behind various propeller-fuselage-wing combinations. Out-of-trim lateral forces and moments of the unsymmetrical tail arrangements that were best from consideration of longitudinal stability were no greater than those of the normal tail arrangement.

Diversity in tooth eruption and life history in humans: illustration from a Pygmy population

PubMed Central

Ramirez Rozzi, Fernando

2016-01-01

Life history variables (LHV) in primates are closely correlated with the ages of tooth eruption, which are a useful proxy to predict growth and development in extant and extinct species. However, it is not known how tooth eruption ages interact with LHV in polymorphic species such as modern humans. African pygmies are at the one extreme in the range of human size variation. LHV in the Baka pygmies are similar to those in standard populations. We would therefore expect tooth eruption ages to be similar also. This mixed (longitudinal and cross-sectional) study of tooth eruption in Baka individuals of known age reveals that eruption in all tooth classes occurs earlier than in any other human population. Earlier tooth eruption can be related to the particular somatic growth in the Baka but cannot be correlated with LHV. The link between LHV and tooth eruption seems disrupted in H. sapiens, allowing adaptive variations in tooth eruption in response to different environmental constraints while maintaining the unique human life cycle. PMID:27305976

Socio-Demographic, Social-Cognitive, Health-Related and Physical Environmental Variables Associated with Context-Specific Sitting Time in Belgian Adolescents: A One-Year Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Busschaert, Cedric; Ridgers, Nicola D; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; Cardon, Greet; Van Cauwenberg, Jelle; De Cocker, Katrien

2016-01-01

More knowledge is warranted about multilevel ecological variables associated with context-specific sitting time among adolescents. The present study explored cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of ecological domains of sedentary behaviour, including socio-demographic, social-cognitive, health-related and physical-environmental variables with sitting during TV viewing, computer use, electronic gaming and motorized transport among adolescents. For this longitudinal study, a sample of Belgian adolescents completed questionnaires at school on context-specific sitting time and associated ecological variables. At baseline, complete data were gathered from 513 adolescents (15.0±1.7 years). At one-year follow-up, complete data of 340 participants were available (retention rate: 66.3%). Multilevel linear regression analyses were conducted to explore cross-sectional correlates (baseline variables) and longitudinal predictors (change scores variables) of context-specific sitting time. Social-cognitive correlates/predictors were most frequently associated with context-specific sitting time. Longitudinal analyses revealed that increases over time in considering it pleasant to watch TV (p < .001), in perceiving TV watching as a way to relax (p < .05), in TV time of parents/care givers (p < .01) and in TV time of siblings (p < .001) were associated with more sitting during TV viewing at follow-up. Increases over time in considering it pleasant to use a computer in leisure time (p < .01) and in the computer time of siblings (p < .001) were associated with more sitting during computer use at follow-up. None of the changes in potential predictors were significantly related to changes in sitting during motorized transport or during electronic gaming. Future intervention studies aiming to decrease TV viewing and computer use should acknowledge the importance of the behaviour of siblings and the pleasure adolescents experience during these screen-related behaviours. In addition, more time parents or care givers spent sitting may lead to more sitting during TV viewing of the adolescents, so that a family-based approach may be preferable for interventions. Experimental study designs are warranted to confirm the present findings.

Socio-Demographic, Social-Cognitive, Health-Related and Physical Environmental Variables Associated with Context-Specific Sitting Time in Belgian Adolescents: A One-Year Follow-Up Study

PubMed Central

Busschaert, Cedric; Ridgers, Nicola D.; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; Cardon, Greet; Van Cauwenberg, Jelle; De Cocker, Katrien

2016-01-01

Introduction More knowledge is warranted about multilevel ecological variables associated with context-specific sitting time among adolescents. The present study explored cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of ecological domains of sedentary behaviour, including socio-demographic, social-cognitive, health-related and physical-environmental variables with sitting during TV viewing, computer use, electronic gaming and motorized transport among adolescents. Methods For this longitudinal study, a sample of Belgian adolescents completed questionnaires at school on context-specific sitting time and associated ecological variables. At baseline, complete data were gathered from 513 adolescents (15.0±1.7 years). At one-year follow-up, complete data of 340 participants were available (retention rate: 66.3%). Multilevel linear regression analyses were conducted to explore cross-sectional correlates (baseline variables) and longitudinal predictors (change scores variables) of context-specific sitting time. Results Social-cognitive correlates/predictors were most frequently associated with context-specific sitting time. Longitudinal analyses revealed that increases over time in considering it pleasant to watch TV (p < .001), in perceiving TV watching as a way to relax (p < .05), in TV time of parents/care givers (p < .01) and in TV time of siblings (p < .001) were associated with more sitting during TV viewing at follow-up. Increases over time in considering it pleasant to use a computer in leisure time (p < .01) and in the computer time of siblings (p < .001) were associated with more sitting during computer use at follow-up. None of the changes in potential predictors were significantly related to changes in sitting during motorized transport or during electronic gaming. Conclusions Future intervention studies aiming to decrease TV viewing and computer use should acknowledge the importance of the behaviour of siblings and the pleasure adolescents experience during these screen-related behaviours. In addition, more time parents or care givers spent sitting may lead to more sitting during TV viewing of the adolescents, so that a family-based approach may be preferable for interventions. Experimental study designs are warranted to confirm the present findings. PMID:27936073

How Do Microphysical Processes Influence Large-Scale Precipitation Variability and Extremes?

DOE PAGES

Hagos, Samson; Ruby Leung, L.; Zhao, Chun; ...

2018-02-10

Convection permitting simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) are used to examine how microphysical processes affect large-scale precipitation variability and extremes. An episode of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is simulated using MPAS-A with a refined region at 4-km grid spacing over the Indian Ocean. It is shown that cloud microphysical processes regulate the precipitable water (PW) statistics. Because of the non-linear relationship between precipitation and PW, PW exceeding a certain critical value (PWcr) contributes disproportionately to precipitation variability. However, the frequency of PW exceeding PWcr decreases rapidly with PW, so changes in microphysical processes that shift the columnmore » PW statistics relative to PWcr even slightly have large impacts on precipitation variability. Furthermore, precipitation variance and extreme precipitation frequency are approximately linearly related to the difference between the mean and critical PW values. Thus observed precipitation statistics could be used to directly constrain model microphysical parameters as this study demonstrates using radar observations from DYNAMO field campaign.« less

How Do Microphysical Processes Influence Large-Scale Precipitation Variability and Extremes?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hagos, Samson; Ruby Leung, L.; Zhao, Chun

Convection permitting simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) are used to examine how microphysical processes affect large-scale precipitation variability and extremes. An episode of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is simulated using MPAS-A with a refined region at 4-km grid spacing over the Indian Ocean. It is shown that cloud microphysical processes regulate the precipitable water (PW) statistics. Because of the non-linear relationship between precipitation and PW, PW exceeding a certain critical value (PWcr) contributes disproportionately to precipitation variability. However, the frequency of PW exceeding PWcr decreases rapidly with PW, so changes in microphysical processes that shift the columnmore » PW statistics relative to PWcr even slightly have large impacts on precipitation variability. Furthermore, precipitation variance and extreme precipitation frequency are approximately linearly related to the difference between the mean and critical PW values. Thus observed precipitation statistics could be used to directly constrain model microphysical parameters as this study demonstrates using radar observations from DYNAMO field campaign.« less

Universal, Developmental, and Variable Aspects of Young Children's Play: A Cross-Cultural Comparison of Pretending at Home.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haight, Wendy L.; Wang, Xiao-lei; Fung, Heidi Han-tih; Williams, Kimberley; Mintz, Judith

1999-01-01

This study used longitudinal data from five Irish American families and nine Chinese families in Taiwan, in conjunction with cultural psychology research evidence, to propose universal, culturally variable, and developmental dimensions of children's pretend play. Findings raise the theoretical issue of how universal and variable dimensions of…

Making Energy-Water Nexus Scenarios more Fit-for-Purpose through Better Characterization of Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yetman, G.; Levy, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Schnarr, E.

2017-12-01

Often quantitative scenarios of future trends exhibit less variability than the historic data upon which the models that generate them are based. The problem of dampened variability, which typically also entails dampened extremes, manifests both temporally and spatially. As a result, risk assessments that rely on such scenarios are in danger of producing misleading results. This danger is pronounced in nexus issues, because of the multiple dimensions of change that are relevant. We illustrate the above problem by developing alternative joint distributions of the probability of drought and of human population totals, across U.S. counties over the period 2010-2030. For the dampened-extremes case we use drought frequencies derived from climate models used in the U.S. National Climate Assessment and the Environmental Protection Agency's population and land use projections contained in its Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS). For the elevated extremes case we use an alternative spatial drought frequency estimate based on tree-ring data, covering a 555-year period (Ho et al 2017); and we introduce greater temporal and spatial extremes in the ICLUS socioeconomic projections so that they conform to observed extremes in the historical U.S. spatial census data 1790-present (National Historical Geographic Information System). We use spatial and temporal coincidence of high population and extreme drought as a proxy for energy-water nexus risk. We compare the representation of risk in the dampened-extreme and elevated-extreme scenario analysis. We identify areas of the country where using more realistic portrayals of extremes makes the biggest difference in estimate risk and suggest implications for future risk assessments. References: Michelle Ho, Upmanu Lall, Xun Sun, Edward R. Cook. 2017. Multiscale temporal variability and regional patterns in 555 years of conterminous U.S. streamflow. Water Resources Research. . doi: 10.1002/2016WR019632

Extreme Rainfall Events Over Southern Africa: Assessment of a Climate Model to Reproduce Daily Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2007-12-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of SST anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model's domain size are firstly presented. Then simulations of current climate from the model, operating in both regional and global mode, are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Thirdly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are briefly presented, suggesting associations between rainfall extremes and both local and remote SST anomalies.

Min and Max Exponential Extreme Interval Values and Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jance, Marsha; Thomopoulos, Nick

2009-01-01

The extreme interval values and statistics (expected value, median, mode, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation) for the smallest (min) and largest (max) values of exponentially distributed variables with parameter ? = 1 are examined for different observation (sample) sizes. An extreme interval value g[subscript a] is defined as a…

Protection from retinopathy and other complications in patients with type 1 diabetes of extreme duration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We performed a cross-sectional, observational study of 351 U.S. residents with at least 50 years of insulin-dependent diabetes. Longitudinal data on retinopathy progression was obtained via chart review in patients followed at the Joslin Diabetes Center eye clinic (Boston, MA). HbA1c was determined ...

Academic Self-Concept, Achievement Goals, and Achievement: Is Their Relation the Same for Academic Achievers and Underachievers?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Preckel, Franzis; Brunner, Martin

2015-01-01

This longitudinal study investigated the contribution of achievement goals and academic self-concept for the prediction of unexpected academic achievement (i.e., achievement that is higher or lower than expected with respect to students' cognitive ability) in general and when comparing groups of extreme over- and underachievers. Our sample…

A Longitudinal Study of Body Change Strategies among Adolescent Males.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCabe, Marita P.; Ricciardelli, Lina A.

2003-01-01

Examined factors predicting body change strategies to increase weight and muscle mass among adolescent males over an 8-month period. Results for 435 adolescent boys show that extreme body change strategies are predicted by the adoption of more normative body change strategies at an earlier time, and that body change strategies are affected by…

The wage effects of obesity: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Baum, Charles L; Ford, William F

2004-09-01

We use National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) data to examine the effects of obesity on wages by gender. Sample means indicate that both men and women experience a persistent obesity wage penalty over the first two decades of their careers. We then control for a standard set of socioeconomic and familial variables but find that standard covariates do not explain why obese workers experience persistent wage penalties. This suggests that other variables -- including job discrimination, health-related factors and/or obese workers' behavior patterns -- may be the channels through which obesity adversely affects wages. The study closes with a discussion of the public policy implications suggested by these findings.

Adapting to extreme events related to natural variability and climate change: the imperative of coupling technology with strong regulation and governance.

PubMed

Kythreotis, A P; Mercer, T G; Frostick, L E

2013-09-03

In recent years there has been an increase in extreme events related to natural variability (such as earthquakes, tsunamis and hurricanes) and climate change (such as flooding and more extreme weather). Developing innovative technologies is crucial in making society more resilient to such events. However, little emphasis has been placed on the role of human decision-making in maximizing the positive impacts of technological developments. This is exacerbated by the lack of appropriate adaptation options and the privatization of existing infrastructure, which can leave people exposed to increasing risk. This work examines the need for more robust government regulation and legislation to complement developments and innovations in technology in order to protect communities against such extreme events.

Rainfall extremes from TRMM data and the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorzetto, Enrico; Marani, Marco

2017-04-01

A reliable quantification of the probability of weather extremes occurrence is essential for designing resilient water infrastructures and hazard mitigation measures. However, it is increasingly clear that the presence of inter-annual climatic fluctuations determines a substantial long-term variability in the frequency of occurrence of extreme events. This circumstance questions the foundation of the traditional extreme value theory, hinged on stationary Poisson processes or on asymptotic assumptions to derive the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. We illustrate here, with application to daily rainfall, a new approach to extreme value analysis, the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD). The MEVD relaxes the above assumptions and is based on the whole distribution of daily rainfall events, thus allowing optimal use of all available observations. Using a global dataset of rain gauge observations, we show that the MEVD significantly outperforms the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, particularly for long average recurrence intervals and when small samples are available. The latter property suggests MEVD to be particularly suited for applications to satellite rainfall estimates, which only cover two decades, thus making extreme value estimation extremely challenging. Here we apply MEVD to the TRMM TMPA 3B42 product, an 18-year dataset of remotely-sensed daily rainfall providing a quasi-global coverage. Our analyses yield a global scale mapping of daily rainfall extremes and of their distributional tail properties, bridging the existing large gaps in ground-based networks. Finally, we illustrate how our global-scale analysis can provide insight into how properties of local rainfall regimes affect tail estimation uncertainty when using the GEV or MEVD approach. We find a dependence of the estimation uncertainty, for both the GEV- and MEV-based approaches, on the average annual number and on the inter-annual variability of rainy days. In particular, estimation uncertainty decreases 1) as the mean annual number of wet days increases, and 2) as the variability in the number of rainy days, expressed by its coefficient of variation, decreases. We tentatively explain this behavior in terms of the assumptions underlying the two approaches.

Reference intervals, longitudinal analyses, and index of individuality of commonly measured laboratory variables in captive bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus).

PubMed

Jones, Michael P; Arheart, Kristopher L; Cray, Carolyn

2014-06-01

The objectives of this study were to determine reference intervals, perform longitudinal analyses, and determine the index of individuality (IoI) of 8 hematologic, and 13 biochemical and electrophoretic variables for a group of captive bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus). Reference intervals were determined from blood samples collected during annual wellness examinations for 41 eagles (23 male and 18 female) with ages ranging between 6 and 43 years (18.7 +/- 7.4, mean +/- SD) at the time of sample collection. Longitudinal analyses and IoI were determined for measured hematologic, biochemical, and protein electrophoretic variables, both individually and as a group, for a subset of 16 eagles (10 male and 6 female) during a 12-year period. This smaller group of eagles ranged in age between 2 and 20 years at the start of the study period, and between 14 and 32 years (21.9 +/- 5.0, mean +/- SD) at the end of the study period. Significant increases with age within the group of 16 eagles were observed only for red blood cells, percent heterophils, total protein, and beta-globulin protein fraction, while albumin:globulin decreased significantly with age. A low IoI (> or = 1.4) was determined for all hematologic and biochemical variables except gamma globulins, which had high IoI (< or = 0.6) for 3 individuals within the subset of 16.

Effect of injection screen slot geometry on hydraulic conductivity tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klammler, Harald; Nemer, Bassel; Hatfield, Kirk

2014-04-01

Hydraulic conductivity and its spatial variability are important hydrogeological parameters and are typically determined through injection tests at different scales. For injection test interpretation, shape factors are required to account for injection screen geometry. Shape factors act as proportionality constants between hydraulic conductivity and observed ratios of injection flow rate and injection head at steady-state. Existing results for such shape factors assume either an ideal screen (i.e., ignoring effects of screen slot geometry) or infinite screen length (i.e., ignoring effects of screen extremes). In the present work, we investigate the combined effects of circumferential screen slot geometry and finite screen length on injection shape factors. This is done in terms of a screen entrance resistance by solving a steady-state potential flow mixed type boundary value problem in a homogeneous axi-symmetric flow domain using a semi-analytical solution approach. Results are compared to existing analytical solutions for circumferential and longitudinal slots on infinite screens, which are found to be identical. Based on an existing approximation, an expression is developed for a dimensionless screen entrance resistance of infinite screens, which is a function of the relative slot area only. For anisotropic conditions, e.g., when conductivity is smaller in the vertical direction than in the horizontal, screen entrance losses for circumferential slots increase, while they remain unaffected for longitudinal slots. This work is not concerned with investigating the effects of (possibly turbulent) head losses inside the injection device including the passage through the injection slots prior to entering the porous aquifer.

Nonlinear responses of southern African rainfall to forcing from Atlantic SST in a high-resolution regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, high resolution satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA) are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The MIRA dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the regional climate model's domain size are briefly presented, before a comparison of simulated daily rainfall from the model with the satellite-derived dataset. Secondly, simulations of current climate and rainfall extremes from the model are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are presented, suggesting highly nonlinear associations between rainfall extremes remote SST anomalies.

Patterns of amino acid conservation in human and animal immunodeficiency viruses.

PubMed

Voitenko, Olga S; Dhroso, Andi; Feldmann, Anna; Korkin, Dmitry; Kalinina, Olga V

2016-09-01

Due to their high genomic variability, RNA viruses and retroviruses present a unique opportunity for detailed study of molecular evolution. Lentiviruses, with HIV being a notable example, are one of the best studied viral groups: hundreds of thousands of sequences are available together with experimentally resolved three-dimensional structures for most viral proteins. In this work, we use these data to study specific patterns of evolution of the viral proteins, and their relationship to protein interactions and immunogenicity. We propose a method for identification of two types of surface residues clusters with abnormal conservation: extremely conserved and extremely variable clusters. We identify them on the surface of proteins from HIV and other animal immunodeficiency viruses. Both types of clusters are overrepresented on the interaction interfaces of viral proteins with other proteins, nucleic acids or low molecular-weight ligands, both in the viral particle and between the virus and its host. In the immunodeficiency viruses, the interaction interfaces are not more conserved than the corresponding proteins on an average, and we show that extremely conserved clusters coincide with protein-protein interaction hotspots, predicted as the residues with the largest energetic contribution to the interaction. Extremely variable clusters have been identified here for the first time. In the HIV-1 envelope protein gp120, they overlap with known antigenic sites. These antigenic sites also contain many residues from extremely conserved clusters, hence representing a unique interacting interface enriched both in extremely conserved and in extremely variable clusters of residues. This observation may have important implication for antiretroviral vaccine development. A Python package is available at https://bioinf.mpi-inf.mpg.de/publications/viral-ppi-pred/ voitenko@mpi-inf.mpg.de or kalinina@mpi-inf.mpg.de Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Revealing the ultrafast outflow in IRAS 13224-3809 through spectral variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, M. L.; Alston, W. N.; Buisson, D. J. K.; Fabian, A. C.; Jiang, J.; Kara, E.; Lohfink, A.; Pinto, C.; Reynolds, C. S.

2017-08-01

We present an analysis of the long-term X-ray variability of the extreme narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy IRAS 13224-3809 using principal component analysis (PCA) and fractional excess variability (Fvar) spectra to identify model-independent spectral components. We identify a series of variability peaks in both the first PCA component and Fvar spectrum which correspond to the strongest predicted absorption lines from the ultrafast outflow (UFO) discovered by Parker et al. (2017). We also find higher order PCA components, which correspond to variability of the soft excess and reflection features. The subtle differences between RMS and PCA results argue that the observed flux-dependence of the absorption is due to increased ionization of the gas, rather than changes in column density or covering fraction. This result demonstrates that we can detect outflows from variability alone and that variability studies of UFOs are an extremely promising avenue for future research.

Extremely Low Loss Phonon-Trapping Cryogenic Acoustic Cavities for Future Physical Experiments

PubMed Central

Galliou, Serge; Goryachev, Maxim; Bourquin, Roger; Abbé, Philippe; Aubry, Jean Pierre; Tobar, Michael E.

2013-01-01

Low loss Bulk Acoustic Wave devices are considered from the point of view of the solid state approach as phonon-confining cavities. We demonstrate effective design of such acoustic cavities with phonon-trapping techniques exhibiting extremely high quality factors for trapped longitudinally-polarized phonons of various wavelengths. Quality factors of observed modes exceed 1 billion, with a maximum Q-factor of 8 billion and Q × f product of 1.6 · 1018 at liquid helium temperatures. Such high sensitivities allow analysis of intrinsic material losses in resonant phonon systems. Various mechanisms of phonon losses are discussed and estimated. PMID:23823569

Effect of living area and sports club participation on physical fitness in children: a 4 year longitudinal study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cross-sectional studies detected associations between physical fitness, living area, and sports participation in children. Yet, their scientific value is limited because the identification of cause-and-effect relationships is not possible. In a longitudinal approach, we examined the effects of living area and sports club participation on physical fitness development in primary school children from classes 3 to 6. Methods One-hundred and seventy-two children (age: 9–12 years; sex: 69 girls, 103 boys) were tested for their physical fitness (i.e., endurance [9-min run], speed [50-m sprint], lower- [triple hop] and upper-extremity muscle strength [1-kg ball push], flexibility [stand-and-reach], and coordination [star coordination run]). Living area (i.e., urban or rural) and sports club participation were assessed using parent questionnaire. Results Over the 4 year study period, urban compared to rural children showed significantly better performance development for upper- (p = 0.009, ES = 0.16) and lower-extremity strength (p < 0.001, ES = 0.22). Further, significantly better performance development were found for endurance (p = 0.08, ES = 0.19) and lower-extremity strength (p = 0.024, ES = 0.23) for children continuously participating in sports clubs compared to their non-participating peers. Conclusions Our findings suggest that sport club programs with appealing arrangements appear to represent a good means to promote physical fitness in children living in rural areas. PMID:24886425

Effect of living area and sports club participation on physical fitness in children: a 4 year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Golle, Kathleen; Granacher, Urs; Hoffmann, Martin; Wick, Ditmar; Muehlbauer, Thomas

2014-05-23

Cross-sectional studies detected associations between physical fitness, living area, and sports participation in children. Yet, their scientific value is limited because the identification of cause-and-effect relationships is not possible. In a longitudinal approach, we examined the effects of living area and sports club participation on physical fitness development in primary school children from classes 3 to 6. One-hundred and seventy-two children (age: 9-12 years; sex: 69 girls, 103 boys) were tested for their physical fitness (i.e., endurance [9-min run], speed [50-m sprint], lower- [triple hop] and upper-extremity muscle strength [1-kg ball push], flexibility [stand-and-reach], and coordination [star coordination run]). Living area (i.e., urban or rural) and sports club participation were assessed using parent questionnaire. Over the 4 year study period, urban compared to rural children showed significantly better performance development for upper- (p = 0.009, ES = 0.16) and lower-extremity strength (p < 0.001, ES = 0.22). Further, significantly better performance development were found for endurance (p = 0.08, ES = 0.19) and lower-extremity strength (p = 0.024, ES = 0.23) for children continuously participating in sports clubs compared to their non-participating peers. Our findings suggest that sport club programs with appealing arrangements appear to represent a good means to promote physical fitness in children living in rural areas.

Getting Personal with Teacher Burnout: A Longitudinal Study on the Development of Burnout Using a Person-Based Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hultell, Daniel; Melin, Bo; Gustavsson, J. Petter

2013-01-01

Studies have suggested that teachers' burnout levels are stable over time. This might be because longitudinal studies on burnout have mainly used a variable-based approach. The purpose of this study was to determine if a person-based approach could provide a more multifaceted perspective to the development of teacher burnout. 816 beginning…

The Longitudinal Structure of General and Specific Anxiety Dimensions in Children: Testing a Latent Trait-State-Occasion Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olatunji, Bunmi O.; Cole, David A.

2009-01-01

In an 8-wave, 4-year longitudinal study, 787 children (Grades 3-6) completed the Revised Children's Manifest Anxiety Scale (C. R. Reynolds & B. O. Richmond, 1985), a measure of the Physiological Reactivity, Worry-Oversensitivity, and Social Alienation dimensions of anxiety. A latent variable (trait-state-occasion) model and a latent growth curve…

National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972: Critical Data Base. 22U-884.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Talbert, Robin

The National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 (NLS) critical data base contains 151 items (plus background information) from the base year and followup questionnaires; about thirty-seven percent of all items. This set of critical items consists of: (1) basic demographic variables; (2) items necessary for defining activity states…

English as a Foreign Language Spelling Development: A Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kahn-Horwitz, Janina; Sparks, Richard L.; Goldstein, Zahava

2012-01-01

English as a foreign language (EFL) spelling was examined longitudinally three times (4th, 9th, 12th grades) during 9 years of EFL study among Hebrew first language (L1) students. The study examined the impact of L1 literacy variables including phonemic awareness, word attack, and spelling on EFL spelling and the relationship between EFL literacy…

Sex Differences in the Longitudinal Prediction of Adult Personality.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sutton-Smith, B.; Rosenberg, B. G.

This paper deals with two sets of data-one that fails to find any long-term sex differences in adults, and another which seems to find such differences. The Berkeley Guidance Study offers longitudinal data in which no variables differentiate between the two sexes at all age levels. From these results, the authors conclude that the normal course of…

Effect of underwing aft-mounted nacelles on the longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics of a high-wing transport airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abeyounis, W. K.; Patterson, J. C., Jr.

1985-01-01

As part of a propulsion/airframe integration program, tests were conducted in the Langley 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel to determine the longitudinal aerodynamic effects of installing flow through engine nacelles in the aft underwing position of a high wing transonic transfer airplane. Mixed flow nacelles with circular and D-shaped inlets were tested at free stream Mach numbers from 0.70 to 0.85 and angles of attack from -2.5 deg to 4.0 deg. The aerodynamic effects of installing antishock bodies on the wing and nacelle upper surfaces as a means of attaching and supporting nacelles in an extreme aft position were investigated.

Soft porous silicone rubbers with ultra-low sound speeds in acoustic metamaterials

PubMed Central

Ba, Abdoulaye; Kovalenko, Artem; Aristégui, Christophe; Mondain-Monval, Olivier; Brunet, Thomas

2017-01-01

Soft porous silicone rubbers are demonstrated to exhibit extremely low sound speeds of tens of m/s for these dense materials, even for low porosities of the order of a few percent. Our ultrasonic experiments show a sudden drop of the longitudinal sound speed with the porosity, while the transverse sound speed remains constant. For such porous elastomeric materials, we propose simple analytical expressions for these two sound speeds, derived in the framework of Kuster and Toksöz, revealing an excellent agreement between the theoretical predictions and the experimental results for both longitudinal and shear waves. Acoustic attenuation measurements also complete the characterization of these soft porous materials. PMID:28054661

Drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds in the ECMWF System 4 and a statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, M. A.; Donat, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

As extreme wind speeds are responsible for large socio-economic losses in Europe, a skillful prediction would be of great benefit for disaster prevention as well as for the actuarial community. Here we evaluate patterns of large-scale atmospheric variability and the seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds (e.g. >95th percentile) in the European domain in the dynamical seasonal forecast system ECMWF System 4, and compare to the predictability based on a statistical prediction model. The dominant patterns of atmospheric variability show distinct differences between reanalysis and ECMWF System 4, with most patterns in System 4 extended downstream in comparison to ERA-Interim. The dissimilar manifestations of the patterns within the two models lead to substantially different drivers associated with the occurrence of extreme winds in the respective model. While the ECMWF System 4 is shown to provide some predictive power over Scandinavia and the eastern Atlantic, only very few grid cells in the European domain have significant correlations for extreme wind speeds in System 4 compared to ERA-Interim. In contrast, a statistical model predicts extreme wind speeds during boreal winter in better agreement with the observations. Our results suggest that System 4 does not seem to capture the potential predictability of extreme winds that exists in the real world, and therefore fails to provide reliable seasonal predictions for lead months 2-4. This is likely related to the unrealistic representation of large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability. Hence our study points to potential improvements of dynamical prediction skill by improving the simulation of large-scale atmospheric dynamics.

Identifying Population Vulnerable to Extreme Heat Events in San Jose, California.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivera, A. L.

2016-12-01

The extreme heat days not only make cities less comfortable for living but also they are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Mapping studies have demonstrated spatial variability in heat vulnerability. A study conducted between 2000 and 2011 in New York City shows that deaths during heat waves was more likely to occur in black individuals, at home in census tracts which received greater public assistance. This map project intends to portray areas in San Jose California that are vulnerable to extreme heat events. The variables considered to build a vulnerability index are: land surface temperature, vegetated areas (NDVI), and people exposed to these area (population density).

Biomarker progressions explain higher variability in stage-specific cognitive decline than baseline values in Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Dodge, Hiroko H; Zhu, Jian; Harvey, Danielle; Saito, Naomi; Silbert, Lisa C; Kaye, Jeffrey A; Koeppe, Robert A; Albin, Roger L

2014-11-01

It is unknown which commonly used Alzheimer disease (AD) biomarker values-baseline or progression-best predict longitudinal cognitive decline. 526 subjects from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). ADNI composite memory and executive scores were the primary outcomes. Individual-specific slope of the longitudinal trajectory of each biomarker was first estimated. These estimates and observed baseline biomarker values were used as predictors of cognitive declines. Variability in cognitive declines explained by baseline biomarker values was compared with variability explained by biomarker progression values. About 40% of variability in memory and executive function declines was explained by ventricular volume progression among mild cognitive impairment patients. A total of 84% of memory and 65% of executive function declines were explained by fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) score progression and ventricular volume progression, respectively, among AD patients. For most biomarkers, biomarker progressions explained higher variability in cognitive decline than biomarker baseline values. This has important implications for clinical trials targeted to modify AD biomarkers. Copyright © 2014 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dryland ecosystem responses to precipitation extremes and wildfire at a long-term rainfall manipulation experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, R. F.; Collins, S. L.

2017-12-01

Climate is becoming increasingly more variable due to global environmental change, which is evidenced by fewer, but more extreme precipitation events, changes in precipitation seasonality, and longer, higher severity droughts. These changes, combined with a rising incidence of wildfire, have the potential to strongly impact net primary production (NPP) and key biogeochemical cycles, particularly in dryland ecosystems where NPP is sequentially limited by water and nutrient availability. Here we utilize a ten-year dataset from an ongoing long-term field experiment established in 2007 in which we experimentally altered monsoon rainfall variability to examine how our manipulations, along with naturally occurring events, affect NPP and associated biogeochemical cycles in a semi-arid grassland in central New Mexico, USA. Using long-term regional averages, we identified extremely wet monsoon years (242.8 mm, 2013), and extremely dry monsoon years (86.0 mm, 2011; 80.0 mm, 2015) and water years (117.0 mm, 2011). We examined how changes in precipitation variability and extreme events affected ecosystem processes and function particularly in the context of ecosystem recovery following a 2009 wildfire. Response variables included above- and below-ground plant biomass (ANPP & BNPP) and abundance, soil nitrogen availability, and soil CO2 efflux. Mean ANPP ranged from 3.6 g m-2 in 2011 to 254.5 g m-2 in 2013, while BNPP ranged from 23.5 g m-2 in 2015 to 194.2 g m-2 in 2013, demonstrating NPP in our semi-arid grassland is directly linked to extremes in both seasonal and annual precipitation. We also show increased nitrogen deposition positively affects NPP in unburned grassland, but has no significant impact on NPP post-fire except during extremely wet monsoon years. While soil respiration rates reflect lower ANPP post-fire, patterns in CO2 efflux have not been shown to change significantly in that efflux is greatest following large precipitation events preceded by longer drying periods. Current land surface models poorly represent dryland ecosystems, which frequently undergo extreme weather events. Our long-term experiment provides key insights into ecosystem processes and function, thereby providing capacity for model improvement particularly in the context of future environmental change.

Climate extremes in Malaysia and the equatorial South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salahuddin, Ahmed; Curtis, Scott

2011-08-01

The southern extent of the South China Sea (SCS) is an important natural resource epicenter for Malaysia which experiences climate extremes. This paper documents the variability of extremes in the equatorial SCS through selected ground-based observations of precipitation in Malaysia and ship-based observations of wind data in the Maritime Continent region, to elucidate the interrelationship between precipitation variability over Malaysia and wind variability over the ocean. The data have been carefully inspected and analyzed, and related to the real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) time series. The analysis suggests that the northeast or boreal winter monsoon dominates extreme rainfall in eastern Malaysian cities. Further, the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo Malaysia are affected by the MJO differently than the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. From the wind analysis we found that average zonal wind is westerly from May to September and easterly from November to April. When the active (convective) phase of the MJO is centered over the Maritime Continent, the strong westerly wind bursts are more frequent in the South China Sea. While more investigation is needed, these results suggest that the status of the Madden-Julian Oscillation can be used to help forecast climate extremes in areas of Malaysia.

Timing of floods in southeastern China: Seasonal properties and potential causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Luo, Ming

2017-09-01

Flood hazards and flood risks in southeastern China have been causing increasing concerns due to dense population and highly-developed economy. This study attempted to address changes of seasonality, timing of peak floods and variability of occurrence date of peak floods using circular statistical methods and the modified Mann-Kendall trend detection method. The causes of peak flood changes were also investigated. Results indicated that: (1) floods were subject to more seasonality and temporal clustering when compared to precipitation extremes. However, seasonality of floods and extreme precipitation was subject to spatial heterogeneity in northern Guangdong. Similar changing patterns of peak floods and extreme precipitation were found in coastal regions; (2) significant increasing/decreasing seasonality, but no confirmed spatial patterns, were observed for peak floods and extreme precipitation. Peak floods in northern Guangdong province had decreasing variability, but had larger variability in coastal regions; (3) tropical cyclones had remarkable impacts on extreme precipitation changes in coastal regions of southeastern China, and peak floods as well. The landfalling of tropical cyclones was decreasing and concentrated during June-September; this is the major reason for earlier but enhanced seasonality of peak floods in coastal regions. This study sheds new light on flood behavior in coastal regions in a changing environment.

Variability and Extremes of Precipitation in the Global Climate as Determined by the 25-Year GEWEX/GPCP Data Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, R. F.; Gu, G.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G. J.; Bolvin, D. T.; Nelkin, E. J.

2005-01-01

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 25-year precipitation data set is used to evaluate the variability and extremes on global and regional scales. The variability of precipitation year-to-year is evaluated in relation to the overall lack of a significant global trend and to climate events such as ENSO and volcanic eruptions. The validity of conclusions and limitations of the data set are checked by comparison with independent data sets (e.g., TRMM). The GPCP data set necessarily has a heterogeneous time series of input data sources, so part of the assessment described above is to test the initial results for potential influence by major data boundaries in the record. Regional trends, or inter-decadal changes, are also analyzed to determine validity and correlation with other long-term data sets related to the hydrological cycle (e.g., clouds and ocean surface fluxes). Statistics of extremes (both wet and dry) are analyzed at the monthly time scale for the 25 years. A preliminary result of increasing frequency of extreme monthly values will be a focus to determine validity. Daily values for an eight-year are also examined for variation in extremes and compared to the longer monthly-based study.

Complex Socio-Ecological Dynamics driven by extreme events in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinho, P. F.

2015-12-01

Several years with extreme floods or droughts in the past decade have caused human suffering in remote communities of the Brazilian Amazon. Despite documented local knowledge and practices for coping with the high seasonal variability characteristic of the region's hydrology (e.g. 10m change in river levels between dry and flood seasons), and despite 'civil Defense' interventions by various levels of government, the more extreme years seem to have exceeded the coping capacity of the community. In this paper, we explore whether there is a real increase in variability, whether the community perceives that recent extreme events are outside the experience which shapes their responses to 'normal' levels of variability, and what science-based policy could contribute to greater local resilience. Hydrological analyses suggest that variability is indeed increasing, in line with expectations from future climate change. However, current measures of hydrological regimes do not predict years with social hardship very well. Interviewees in two regions are able to express their strategies for dealing with 'normal' variability very well, but also identify ways in which abnormal years exceed their ability to cope. Current Civil Defense arrangements struggle to deliver emergency assistance in a sufficiently timely and locally appropriate fashion. Combining these insights in the context of social-ecological change, we suggest how better integration of science, policy and local knowledge could improve resilience to future trends, and identify some contributions science could make into such an arrangement.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-01-01

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an ‘extinction window’ of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the ‘extinction window’, although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. PMID:24920116

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghosh, Subimal; Das, Debasish; Kao, Shih-Chieh

Recent studies disagree on how rainfall extremes over India have changed in space and time over the past half century, as well as on whether the changes observed are due to global warming or regional urbanization. Although a uniform and consistent decrease in moderate rainfall has been reported, a lack of agreement about trends in heavy rainfall may be due in part to differences in the characterization and spatial averaging of extremes. Here we use extreme value theory to examine trends in Indian rainfall over the past half century in the context of long-term, low-frequency variability.We show that when generalizedmore » extreme value theory is applied to annual maximum rainfall over India, no statistically significant spatially uniform trends are observed, in agreement with previous studies using different approaches. Furthermore, our space time regression analysis of the return levels points to increasing spatial variability of rainfall extremes over India. Our findings highlight the need for systematic examination of global versus regional drivers of trends in Indian rainfall extremes, and may help to inform flood hazard preparedness and water resource management in the region.« less

Temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the Midwest of Jilin Province based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis method and copula functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Enliang; Zhang, Jiquan; Si, Ha; Dong, Zhenhua; Cao, Tiehua; Lan, Wu

2017-10-01

Environmental changes have brought about significant changes and challenges to water resources and management in the world; these include increasing climate variability, land use change, intensive agriculture, and rapid urbanization and industrial development, especially much more frequency extreme precipitation events. All of which greatly affect water resource and the development of social economy. In this study, we take extreme precipitation events in the Midwest of Jilin Province as an example; daily precipitation data during 1960-2014 are used. The threshold of extreme precipitation events is defined by multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method. Extreme precipitation (EP), extreme precipitation ratio (EPR), and intensity of extreme precipitation (EPI) are selected as the extreme precipitation indicators, and then the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is employed to determine the optimal probability distribution function of extreme precipitation indicators. On this basis, copulas connect nonparametric estimation method and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) method is adopted to determine the bivariate copula function. Finally, we analyze the characteristics of single variable extremum and bivariate joint probability distribution of the extreme precipitation events. The results show that the threshold of extreme precipitation events in semi-arid areas is far less than that in subhumid areas. The extreme precipitation frequency shows a significant decline while the extreme precipitation intensity shows a trend of growth; there are significant differences in spatiotemporal of extreme precipitation events. The spatial variation trend of the joint return period gets shorter from the west to the east. The spatial distribution of co-occurrence return period takes on contrary changes and it is longer than the joint return period.

The Site Variability Issue in Follow Through Revisited: Some New Data and Some Personal Insights.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gersten, Russell

The site variability issue for Direct Instruction Follow Through sites is examined from a variety of perspectives--meta-analysis of the Abt Associates' data, norm-referenced comparisons, and a longitudinal look at stability of effects. Much of the seemingly unexplained variability found in both the Abt report and the reports by M. Kennedy and E.…

Longitudinal Growth Curves of Brain Function Underlying Inhibitory Control through Adolescence

PubMed Central

Foran, William; Velanova, Katerina; Luna, Beatriz

2013-01-01

Neuroimaging studies suggest that developmental improvements in inhibitory control are primarily supported by changes in prefrontal executive function. However, studies are contradictory with respect to how activation in prefrontal regions changes with age, and they have yet to analyze longitudinal data using growth curve modeling, which allows characterization of dynamic processes of developmental change, individual differences in growth trajectories, and variables that predict any interindividual variability in trajectories. In this study, we present growth curves modeled from longitudinal fMRI data collected over 302 visits (across ages 9 to 26 years) from 123 human participants. Brain regions within circuits known to support motor response control, executive control, and error processing (i.e., aspects of inhibitory control) were investigated. Findings revealed distinct developmental trajectories for regions within each circuit and indicated that a hierarchical pattern of maturation of brain activation supports the gradual emergence of adult-like inhibitory control. Mean growth curves of activation in motor response control regions revealed no changes with age, although interindividual variability decreased with development, indicating equifinality with maturity. Activation in certain executive control regions decreased with age until adolescence, and variability was stable across development. Error-processing activation in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex showed continued increases into adulthood and no significant interindividual variability across development, and was uniquely associated with task performance. These findings provide evidence that continued maturation of error-processing abilities supports the protracted development of inhibitory control over adolescence, while motor response control regions provide early-maturing foundational capacities and suggest that some executive control regions may buttress immature networks as error processing continues to mature. PMID:24227721

The trend of the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.

2011-12-01

Hydrological problems like estimation of flood and drought frequencies under future climate change are not well addressed as a result of the disability of current climate models to provide reliable prediction (especially for precipitation) shorter than 1 month. In order to assess the possible impacts that multi-scale temporal distribution of precipitation may have on the hydrological processes in Colorado River Basin (CRB), a comparative analysis of multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation as well as the trend of extreme precipitation is conducted in four regions controlled by different climate systems. Multi-scale precipitation variability including within-storm patterns and intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variabilities will be analyzed to explore the possible trends of storm durations, inter-storm periods, average storm precipitation intensities and extremes under both long-term natural climate variability and human-induced warming. Further more, we will examine the ability of current climate models to simulate the multi-scale temporal variability and extremes of precipitation. On the basis of these analyses, a statistical downscaling method will be developed to disaggregate the future precipitation scenarios which will provide a more reliable and finer temporal scale precipitation time series for hydrological modeling. Analysis results and downscaling results will be presented.

Relationships between interdecadal variability and extreme precipitation events in South America during the monsoon season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimm, Alice; Laureanti, Nicole; Rodakoviski, Rodrigo

2016-04-01

This study aims to clarify the impact of interdecadal climate oscillations (periods of 8 years and longer) on the frequency of extreme precipitation events over South America in the monsoon season (austral spring and summer), and determine the influence of these oscillations on the daily precipitation frequency distribution. Interdecadal variability modes of precipitation during the monsoon season are provided by a continental-scale rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis for the 60 years period 1950-2009. The main disclosed modes are robust, since they are reproduced for different periods. They can produce differences around 50% in monthly precipitation between opposite phases. Oceanic and atmospheric anomalous fields associated with these modes indicate that they have physical basis. The first modes in spring and summer display highest correlation with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) SST mode, while the second modes have strongest correlation with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) SST mode. However, there are also other influences on these modes. As the most dramatic consequences of climate variability stem from its influence on the frequency of extreme precipitation events, it is important to also assess this influence, since variations in monthly or seasonal precipitation do not necessarily imply significant alterations in their extreme events. This study seeks to answer the questions: i) Do opposite phases of the main interdecadal modes of seasonal precipitation produce significant anomalies in the frequency of extreme events? ii) Does the interdecadal variability of the frequency of extreme events show similar spatial and temporal structure as the interdecadal variability of the seasonal precipitation? iii) Does the interdecadal variability change the daily precipitation probability distribution between opposite phases? iv) In this case, which ranges of daily precipitation are most affected? The significant anomalies of the extreme events frequency in opposite phases of the interdecadal oscillations display spatial patterns very similar to those of the corresponding modes. In addition, the modes of extreme events frequency bear similarity to the modes of seasonal precipitation, although a complete assessment of this similarity is not possible with the daily data available. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is applied to the daily precipitation series for positive and negative phases of the interdecadal modes, in regions with high factor loadings. It shows, with significance level better than 0.01, that daily precipitation from opposite phases pertains to different frequency distributions. Further analyses disclose clearly that there is much greater relative impact of the interdecadal oscillations on the extreme ranges of daily rainfall than in the ranges of moderate and light rainfall. This impact is more linear is spring than in summer. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by: Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) CRN3035 which is supported by the US National Science Foundation (Grant GEO-1128040), European Community's Seventh Framework Programme under Grant Agreement n° 212492 (CLARIS LPB), and CNPq-Brazil (National Council for Scientific and Technologic Development).

Genetic, environmental, and epigenetic factors in the development of personality disturbance.

PubMed

Depue, Richard A

2009-01-01

A dimensional model of personality disturbance is presented that is defined by extreme values on interacting subsets of seven major personality traits. Being at the extreme has marked effects on the threshold for eliciting those traits under stimulus conditions: that is, the extent to which the environment affects the neurobiological functioning underlying the traits. To explore the nature of development of extreme values on these traits, each trait is discussed in terms of three major issues: (a) the neurobiological variables associated with the trait, (b) individual variation in this neurobiology as a function of genetic polymorphisms, and (c) the effects of environmental adversity on these neurobiological variables through the action of epigenetic processes. It is noted that gene-environment interaction appears to be dependent on two main factors: (a) both genetic and environmental variables appear to have the most profound and enduring effects when they exert their effects during early postnatal periods, times when the forebrain is undergoing exuberant experience-expectant dendritic and axonal growth; and (b) environmental effects on neurobiology are strongly modified by individual differences in "traitlike" functioning of neurobiological variables. A model of the nature of the interaction between environmental and neurobiological variables in the development of personality disturbance is presented.

Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100-year trends in desert rainfall and temperature

PubMed Central

Greenville, Aaron C; Wardle, Glenda M; Dickman, Chris R

2012-01-01

Extreme climatic events, such as flooding rains, extended decadal droughts and heat waves have been identified increasingly as important regulators of natural populations. Climate models predict that global warming will drive changes in rainfall and increase the frequency and severity of extreme events. Consequently, to anticipate how organisms will respond we need to document how changes in extremes of temperature and rainfall compare to trends in the mean values of these variables and over what spatial scales the patterns are consistent. Using the longest historical weather records available for central Australia – 100 years – and quantile regression methods, we investigate if extreme climate events have changed at similar rates to median events, if annual rainfall has increased in variability, and if the frequency of large rainfall events has increased over this period. Specifically, we compared local (individual weather stations) and regional (Simpson Desert) spatial scales, and quantified trends in median (50th quantile) and extreme weather values (5th, 10th, 90th, and 95th quantiles). We found that median and extreme annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased at both spatial scales over the past century. Rainfall changes have been inconsistent across the Simpson Desert; individual weather stations showed increases in annual rainfall, increased frequency of large rainfall events or more prolonged droughts, depending on the location. In contrast to our prediction, we found no evidence that intra-annual rainfall had become more variable over time. Using long-term live-trapping records (22 years) of desert small mammals as a case study, we demonstrate that irruptive events are driven by extreme rainfalls (>95th quantile) and that increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events are likely to drive changes in the populations of these species through direct and indirect changes in predation pressure and wildfires. PMID:23170202

Interpreting the Climatic Effects on Xylem Functional Traits in Two Mediterranean Oak Species: The Role of Extreme Climatic Events.

PubMed

Rita, Angelo; Borghetti, Marco; Todaro, Luigi; Saracino, Antonio

2016-01-01

In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern, and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival, and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of (i) detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and (ii) exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport, resulting in substantial reduction of hydraulic functionality and, hence increased incidence of xylem dysfunctions.

Interpreting the Climatic Effects on Xylem Functional Traits in Two Mediterranean Oak Species: The Role of Extreme Climatic Events

PubMed Central

Rita, Angelo; Borghetti, Marco; Todaro, Luigi; Saracino, Antonio

2016-01-01

In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern, and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival, and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of (i) detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and (ii) exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport, resulting in substantial reduction of hydraulic functionality and, hence increased incidence of xylem dysfunctions. PMID:27532008

Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data. Chapter 9

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lim, Young-Kwon

2012-01-01

Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the basic mechanisms by which extremes vary is incomplete. As noted in IPCC (2007), Incomplete global data sets and remaining model uncertainties still restrict understanding of changes in extremes and attribution of changes to causes, although understanding of changes in the intensity, frequency and risk of extremes has improved. Separating decadal and other shorter-term variability from climate change impacts on extremes requires a better understanding of the processes responsible for the changes. In particular, the physical processes linking sea surface temperature changes to regional climate changes, and a basic understanding of the inherent variability in weather extremes and how that is impacted by atmospheric circulation changes at subseasonal to decadal and longer time scales, are still inadequately understood. Given the fundamental limitations in the time span and quality of global observations, substantial progress on these issues will rely increasingly on improvements in models, with observations continuing to play a critical role, though less as a detection tool, and more as a tool for addressing physical processes, and to insure the quality of the climate models and the verisimilitude of the simulations (CCSP SAP 1.3, 2008).

The Impact of Air-Sea Interactions on the Representation of Tropical Precipitation Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirons, L. C.; Klingaman, N. P.; Woolnough, S. J.

2018-02-01

The impacts of air-sea interactions on the representation of tropical precipitation extremes are investigated using an atmosphere-ocean-mixed-layer coupled model. The coupled model is compared to two atmosphere-only simulations driven by the coupled-model sea-surface temperatures (SSTs): one with 31 day running means (31 d), the other with a repeating mean annual cycle. This allows separation of the effects of interannual SST variability from those of coupled feedbacks on shorter timescales. Crucially, all simulations have a consistent mean state with very small SST biases against present-day climatology. 31d overestimates the frequency, intensity, and persistence of extreme tropical precipitation relative to the coupled model, likely due to excessive SST-forced precipitation variability. This implies that atmosphere-only attribution and time-slice experiments may overestimate the strength and duration of precipitation extremes. In the coupled model, air-sea feedbacks damp extreme precipitation, through negative local thermodynamic feedbacks between convection, surface fluxes, and SST.

Observed and predicted sensitivities of extreme surface ozone to meteorological drivers in three US cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fix, Miranda J.; Cooley, Daniel; Hodzic, Alma; Gilleland, Eric; Russell, Brook T.; Porter, William C.; Pfister, Gabriele G.

2018-03-01

We conduct a case study of observed and simulated maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) ozone (O3) in three US cities for summers during 1996-2005. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ability of a high resolution atmospheric chemistry model to reproduce observed relationships between meteorology and high or extreme O3. We employ regional coupled chemistry-transport model simulations to make three types of comparisons between simulated and observational data, comparing (1) tails of the O3 response variable, (2) distributions of meteorological predictor variables, and (3) sensitivities of high and extreme O3 to meteorological predictors. This last comparison is made using two methods: quantile regression, for the 0.95 quantile of O3, and tail dependence optimization, which is used to investigate even higher O3 extremes. Across all three locations, we find substantial differences between simulations and observational data in both meteorology and meteorological sensitivities of high and extreme O3.

Long-term trends and variability of total and extreme precipitation in Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limsakul, Atsamon; Singhruck, Patama

2016-03-01

Based on quality-controlled daily station data, long-term trends and variability of total and extreme precipitation indices during 1955-2014 were examined for Thailand. An analysis showed that while precipitation events have been less frequent across most of Thailand, they have become more intense. Moreover, the indices measuring the magnitude of intense precipitation events indicate a trend toward wetter conditions, with heavy precipitation contributing a greater fraction to annual totals. One consequence of this change is the increased frequency and severity of flash floods as recently evidenced in many parts of Thailand. On interannual-to-interdecadal time scales, significant relationships between variability of precipitation indices and the indices for the state of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were found. These results provide additional evidence that large-scale climate phenomena in the Pacific Ocean are remote drivers of variability in Thailand's total and extreme precipitation. Thailand tended to have greater amounts of precipitation and more extreme events during La Niña years and the PDO cool phase, and vice versa during El Niño years and the PDO warm phase. Another noteworthy finding is that in 2011 Thailand experienced extensive flooding in a year characterized by exceptionally extreme precipitation events. Our results are consistent with the regional studies for the Asia-Pacific Network. However, this study provides a more detailed picture of coherent trends at a station scale and documents changes that have occurred in the twenty-first century, both of which help to inform decisions concerning effective management strategies.

A Model of Career Success: A Longitudinal Study of Emergency Physicians

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pachulicz, Sarah; Schmitt, Neal; Kuljanin, Goran

2008-01-01

Objective and subjective career success were hypothesized to mediate the relationships between sociodemographic variables, human capital indices, individual difference variables, and organizational sponsorship as inputs and a retirement decision and intentions to leave either the specialty of emergency medicine (EM) or medicine as output…

Miniature shock tube for laser driven shocks.

PubMed

Busquet, Michel; Barroso, Patrice; Melse, Thierry; Bauduin, Daniel

2010-02-01

We describe in this paper the design of a miniature shock tube (smaller than 1 cm(3)) that can be placed in a vacuum vessel and allows transverse optical probing and longitudinal backside extreme ultraviolet emission spectroscopy in the 100-500 A range. Typical application is the study of laser launched radiative shocks, in the framework of what is called "laboratory astrophysics."

Perceptions of the News Media's Societal Roles: How the Views of U.K. Journalism Students Changed during Their Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanna, Mark; Sanders, Karen

2012-01-01

A longitudinal study of U.K. journalism undergraduates records how their attitudes on societal roles of the news media changed during university education. Students became more likely to endorse an adversarial approach toward public officials and businesses as extremely important. Yet students did not support these roles as strongly as an older…

Using Individualized Reinforcers and Hierarchical Exposure to Increase Food Flexibility in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koegel, Robert L.; Bharoocha, Amber A.; Ribnick, Courtney B.; Ribnick, Ryan C.; Bucio, Mario O.; Fredeen, Rosy M.; Koegel, Lynn Kern

2012-01-01

Inflexibility is a major characteristic of autism. In the present study we addressed inflexible mealtime behaviors and collected longitudinal data across 48 foods for 3 children, ages 6.4-7.8 years, diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder, for up to 22 weeks. Participants exhibited severe challenges with adherence to an extremely restricted…

Vitamin D deficiency in UK South Asian Women of childbearing age: a comparative longitudinal investigation with UK Caucasian women.

PubMed

Darling, A L; Hart, K H; Macdonald, H M; Horton, K; Kang'ombe, A R; Berry, J L; Lanham-New, S A

2013-02-01

This is the first 1-year longitudinal study which assesses vitamin D deficiency in young UK-dwelling South Asian women. The findings are that vitamin D deficiency is extremely common in this group of women and that it persists all year around, representing a significant public health concern. There is a lack of longitudinal data assessing seasonal variation in vitamin D status in young South Asian women living in northern latitudes. Studies of postmenopausal South Asian women suggest a lack of seasonal change in 25-hydroxy vitamin D [25(OH)D], although it is unclear whether this is prevalent among premenopausal South Asians. We aimed to evaluate, longitudinally, seasonal changes in 25(OH)D and prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in young UK-dwelling South Asian women as compared with Caucasians. We also aimed to establish the relative contributions of dietary vitamin D and sun exposure in explaining serum 25(OH)D. This is a 1-year prospective cohort study assessing South Asian (n = 35) and Caucasian (n = 105) premenopausal women living in Surrey, UK (51° N), aged 20-55 years. The main outcome measured was serum 25(OH)D concentration. Secondary outcomes were serum parathyroid hormone, self-reported dietary vitamin D intake and UVB exposure by personal dosimetry. Serum 25(OH)D <25 nmol/L was highly prevalent in South Asians in the winter (81 %) and autumn (79.2 %). Deficient status (below 50 nmol/L) was common in Caucasian women. Multi-level modelling suggested that, in comparison to sun exposure (1.59, 95 %CI = 0.83-2.35), dietary intake of vitamin D had no impact on 25(OH)D levels (-0.08, 95 %CI = -1.39 to 1.23). Year-round vitamin D deficiency was extremely common in South Asian women. These findings pose great health threats regarding the adverse effects of vitamin D deficiency in pregnancy and warrant urgent vitamin D public health policy and action.

Within- and between-person and group variance in behavior and beliefs in cross-cultural longitudinal data.

PubMed

Deater-Deckard, Kirby; Godwin, Jennifer; Lansford, Jennifer E; Bacchini, Dario; Bombi, Anna Silvia; Bornstein, Marc H; Chang, Lei; Di Giunta, Laura; Dodge, Kenneth A; Malone, Patrick S; Oburu, Paul; Pastorelli, Concetta; Skinner, Ann T; Sorbring, Emma; Steinberg, Laurence; Tapanya, Sombat; Alampay, Liane Peña; Uribe Tirado, Liliana Maria; Zelli, Arnaldo; Al-Hassan, Suha M

2018-01-01

This study grapples with what it means to be part of a cultural group, from a statistical modeling perspective. The method we present compares within- and between-cultural group variability, in behaviors in families. We demonstrate the method using a cross-cultural study of adolescent development and parenting, involving three biennial waves of longitudinal data from 1296 eight-year-olds and their parents (multiple cultures in nine countries). Family members completed surveys about parental negativity and positivity, child academic and social-emotional adjustment, and attitudes about parenting and adolescent behavior. Variance estimates were computed at the cultural group, person, and within-person level using multilevel models. Of the longitudinally consistent variance, most was within and not between cultural groups-although there was a wide range of between-group differences. This approach to quantifying cultural group variability may prove valuable when applied to quantitative studies of acculturation. Copyright © 2017 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. All rights reserved.

Multivariate Longitudinal Analysis with Bivariate Correlation Test

PubMed Central

Adjakossa, Eric Houngla; Sadissou, Ibrahim; Hounkonnou, Mahouton Norbert; Nuel, Gregory

2016-01-01

In the context of multivariate multilevel data analysis, this paper focuses on the multivariate linear mixed-effects model, including all the correlations between the random effects when the dimensional residual terms are assumed uncorrelated. Using the EM algorithm, we suggest more general expressions of the model’s parameters estimators. These estimators can be used in the framework of the multivariate longitudinal data analysis as well as in the more general context of the analysis of multivariate multilevel data. By using a likelihood ratio test, we test the significance of the correlations between the random effects of two dependent variables of the model, in order to investigate whether or not it is useful to model these dependent variables jointly. Simulation studies are done to assess both the parameter recovery performance of the EM estimators and the power of the test. Using two empirical data sets which are of longitudinal multivariate type and multivariate multilevel type, respectively, the usefulness of the test is illustrated. PMID:27537692

Multivariate Longitudinal Analysis with Bivariate Correlation Test.

PubMed

Adjakossa, Eric Houngla; Sadissou, Ibrahim; Hounkonnou, Mahouton Norbert; Nuel, Gregory

2016-01-01

In the context of multivariate multilevel data analysis, this paper focuses on the multivariate linear mixed-effects model, including all the correlations between the random effects when the dimensional residual terms are assumed uncorrelated. Using the EM algorithm, we suggest more general expressions of the model's parameters estimators. These estimators can be used in the framework of the multivariate longitudinal data analysis as well as in the more general context of the analysis of multivariate multilevel data. By using a likelihood ratio test, we test the significance of the correlations between the random effects of two dependent variables of the model, in order to investigate whether or not it is useful to model these dependent variables jointly. Simulation studies are done to assess both the parameter recovery performance of the EM estimators and the power of the test. Using two empirical data sets which are of longitudinal multivariate type and multivariate multilevel type, respectively, the usefulness of the test is illustrated.

Reducing Variability in Orthogonal Reformatted Image Quality Associated With Axial Long-z-Axis CT Angiography.

PubMed

Stein, Erica B; Liu, Peter S; Kazerooni, Ella A; Barber, Karen; Davenport, Matthew S

2016-12-01

The objective of our study was to reduce variation in image quality of orthogonal reformatted images generated from long-z-axis CT angiography (CTA) studies of the upper and lower extremities. Upper and lower extremity CTA studies were targeted at a single health care system. A correctly performed CTA examination was defined as one that met the following three criteria: Sagittal and coronal reformats were obtained, a high-resolution matrix greater than 512 × 512 was used, and reformatted images were available in a distance-measurable format. Baseline data were collected from February 1, 2014, through September 30, 2014. Corrective actions were implemented during three consecutive plan-do-check-act (PDCA) cycles from October 1, 2014, through July 31, 2015, that addressed human, technical, and systematic variations. A 3-month maintenance period followed in which no intervention was performed. Longitudinal data were analyzed monthly using a statistical process control chart (p-chart). The total number of long-z-axis extremity CTA studies analyzed was as follows: 351 CTA studies were analyzed at baseline, 94 at the first PDCA cycle, 92 at the second PDCA cycle, 114 at the third PDCA cycle, and 138 during the maintenance period. The monthly rate of correctly performed studies ranged from 7% to 51% (mean, 38% ± 13% [SD]) during the baseline period, 32-59% (mean, 46% ± 14%) during the first PDCA cycle, 40-81% (mean, 61% ± 21%) during the second PDCA cycle, and 80-82% (mean, 81% ± 0.9%) during the third PDCA cycle. The monthly rate improved to 90-91% (mean, 91% ± 0.5%) during the maintenance period. The upper and lower control limits of the p-chart were upshifted after the second and third PDCA cycles. Correcting systematic and technical variations led to the greatest improvements in reformat accuracy. Obtaining consistently and correctly reformatted images from long-z-axis CTA studies is achievable using iterative PDCA cycles.

Attrition in a Large Scale Longitudinal Study of the Elderly: The Role of Health-Status Variables.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horgas, Ann L.; And Others

In a longitudinal study, subject attrition constitutes a potential threat to the usefulness of data collected from subjects remaining in later waves of the study. If attrition is selective, then the sample at later waves of the study may be representative of a different population than that represented at the outset of the study. This study…

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Relationships in the Change between Two Time Points for Latent Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, W. Holmes; Shim, Sungok Serena

2018-01-01

Collection and analysis of longitudinal data is an important tool in understanding growth and development over time in a whole range of human endeavors. Ideally, researchers working in the longitudinal framework are able to collect data at more than two points in time, as this will provide them with the potential for a deeper understanding of the…

Longitudinal Analyses of a Hierarchical Model of Peer Social Competence for Preschool Children: Structural Fidelity and External Correlates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shin, Nana; Vaughn, Brian E.; Kim, Mina; Krzysik, Lisa; Bost, Kelly K.; McBride, Brent; Santos, Antonio J.; Peceguina, Ines; Coppola, Gabrielle

2011-01-01

Achieving consensus on the definition and measurement of social competence (SC) for preschool children has proven difficult in the developmental sciences. We tested a hierarchical model in which SC is assumed to be a second-order latent variable by using longitudinal data (N = 345). We also tested the degree to which peer SC at Time 1 predicted…

Experimental Research on Seismic Performance of Four-Element Variable Cross-Sectional Concrete Filled Steel Tubular Laced Columns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ou, Zhijing; Lin, Jianmao; Chen, Shengfu; Lin, Wen

2017-10-01

A total of 7 experimental tests were conducted to investigate seismic performance of four element variable cross-sectional Concrete Filled Steel Tubular (CFST) laced columns. The experimental parameters are longitudinal slope and arrangement type of lacing tubes. The rules on hysteresis loop, ductility, energy expenditure, and stiffness degradation of specimens are researched. Test results indicate that all specimens have good seismic performance; their hysteresis loops are full without obvious shrinkage. With the increase of longitudinal slope, the horizontal carrying capacity increases, energy dissipation capacity improve, and there is slightly increase in stiffness degradation. The influence of arrangement type of lacing tubes on displacement ductility of specimens is big.

Climate Exposure of US National Parks in a New Era of Change

PubMed Central

Monahan, William B.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.

2014-01-01

US national parks are challenged by climate and other forms of broad-scale environmental change that operate beyond administrative boundaries and in some instances are occurring at especially rapid rates. Here, we evaluate the climate change exposure of 289 natural resource parks administered by the US National Park Service (NPS), and ask which are presently (past 10 to 30 years) experiencing extreme (<5th percentile or >95th percentile) climates relative to their 1901–2012 historical range of variability (HRV). We consider parks in a landscape context (including surrounding 30 km) and evaluate both mean and inter-annual variation in 25 biologically relevant climate variables related to temperature, precipitation, frost and wet day frequencies, vapor pressure, cloud cover, and seasonality. We also consider sensitivity of findings to the moving time window of analysis (10, 20, and 30 year windows). Results show that parks are overwhelmingly at the extreme warm end of historical temperature distributions and this is true for several variables (e.g., annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest quarter). Precipitation and other moisture patterns are geographically more heterogeneous across parks and show greater variation among variables. Across climate variables, recent inter-annual variation is generally well within the range of variability observed since 1901. Moving window size has a measureable effect on these estimates, but parks with extreme climates also tend to exhibit low sensitivity to the time window of analysis. We highlight particular parks that illustrate different extremes and may facilitate understanding responses of park resources to ongoing climate change. We conclude with discussion of how results relate to anticipated future changes in climate, as well as how they can inform NPS and neighboring land management and planning in a new era of change. PMID:24988483

Climate exposure of US national parks in a new era of change.

PubMed

Monahan, William B; Fisichelli, Nicholas A

2014-01-01

US national parks are challenged by climate and other forms of broad-scale environmental change that operate beyond administrative boundaries and in some instances are occurring at especially rapid rates. Here, we evaluate the climate change exposure of 289 natural resource parks administered by the US National Park Service (NPS), and ask which are presently (past 10 to 30 years) experiencing extreme (<5th percentile or >95th percentile) climates relative to their 1901-2012 historical range of variability (HRV). We consider parks in a landscape context (including surrounding 30 km) and evaluate both mean and inter-annual variation in 25 biologically relevant climate variables related to temperature, precipitation, frost and wet day frequencies, vapor pressure, cloud cover, and seasonality. We also consider sensitivity of findings to the moving time window of analysis (10, 20, and 30 year windows). Results show that parks are overwhelmingly at the extreme warm end of historical temperature distributions and this is true for several variables (e.g., annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest quarter). Precipitation and other moisture patterns are geographically more heterogeneous across parks and show greater variation among variables. Across climate variables, recent inter-annual variation is generally well within the range of variability observed since 1901. Moving window size has a measureable effect on these estimates, but parks with extreme climates also tend to exhibit low sensitivity to the time window of analysis. We highlight particular parks that illustrate different extremes and may facilitate understanding responses of park resources to ongoing climate change. We conclude with discussion of how results relate to anticipated future changes in climate, as well as how they can inform NPS and neighboring land management and planning in a new era of change.

On Light-Like Extremal Surfaces in Curved Spacetimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shou-Jun; He, Chun-Lei

2014-01-01

In this paper, we are concerned with light-like extremal surfaces in curved spacetimes. It is interesting to find that under a diffeomorphic transformation of variables, the light-like extremal surfaces can be described by a system of nonlinear geodesic equations. Particularly, we investigate the light-like extremal surfaces in Schwarzschild spacetime in detail and some new special solutions are derived systematically with aim to compare with the known results and to illustrate the method.

Understanding extreme rainfall events in Australia through historical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashcroft, Linden; Karoly, David John

2016-04-01

Historical climate data recovery is still an emerging field in the Australian region. The majority of Australia's instrumental climate analyses begin in 1900 for rainfall and 1910 for temperature, particularly those focussed on extreme event analysis. This data sparsity for the past in turn limits our understanding of long-term climate variability, constraining efforts to predict the impact of future climate change. To address this need for improved historical data in Australia, a new network of recovered climate observations has recently been developed, centred on the highly populated southeastern Australian region (Ashcroft et al., 2014a, 2014b). The dataset includes observations from more than 39 published and unpublished sources and extends from British settlement in 1788 to the formation of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in 1908. Many of these historical sources provide daily temperature and rainfall information, providing an opportunity to improve understanding of the multidecadal variability of Australia's extreme events. In this study we combine the historical data for three major Australian cities - Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide - with modern observations to examine extreme rainfall variability over the past 174 years (1839-2013). We first explore two case studies, combining instrumental and documentary evidence to support the occurrence of severe storms in Sydney in 1841 and 1844. These events appear to be at least as extreme as Sydney's modern 24-hour rainfall record. Next we use a suite of rainfall indices to assess the long-term variability of rainfall in southeastern Australia. In particular, we focus on the stationarity of the teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and extreme rainfall events. Using ENSO reconstructions derived from both palaeoclimatic and documentary sources, we determine the historical relationship between extreme rainfall in southeastern Australia and ENSO, and examine whether or not this relationship has remained stable since the early to mid-19th century. Ashcroft, L., Gergis, J., Karoly, D.J., 2014a. A historical climate dataset for southeastern Australia, 1788-1859. Geosci. Data J. 1, 158-178. doi:10.1002/gdj3.19 Ashcroft, L., Karoly, D.J., Gergis, J., 2014b. Southeastern Australian climate variability 1860-2009: A multivariate analysis. Int. J. Climatol. 34, 1928-1944. doi:10.1002/joc.3812

Limited genetic covariance between autistic traits and intelligence: findings from a longitudinal twin study.

PubMed

Hoekstra, Rosa A; Happé, Francesca; Baron-Cohen, Simon; Ronald, Angelica

2010-07-01

Intellectual disability is common in individuals with autism spectrum conditions. However, the strength of the association between both conditions and its relevance to finding the underlying (genetic) causes of autism is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the longitudinal association between autistic traits and intelligence in a general population twin sample and to examine the etiology of this association. Parental ratings of autistic traits and performance on intelligence tests were collected in a sample of 8,848 twin pairs when the children were 7/8, 9, and 12 years old. Phenotypic and longitudinal correlations in the sample as a whole were compared to the associations in the most extreme scoring 5% of the population. The genetic and environmental influences on the overlap between autistic traits and IQ and on the stability of this relationship over time were estimated using structural equation modeling. Autistic traits were modestly negatively correlated to intellectual ability, both in the extreme scoring groups and among the full-range scores. The correlation was stable over time and was mainly explained by autistic trait items assessing communication difficulties. Genetic model fitting showed that autistic traits and IQ were influenced by a common set of genes and a common set of environmental influences that continuously affect these traits throughout childhood. The genetic correlation between autistic traits and IQ was only modest. These findings suggest that individual differences in autistic traits are substantially genetically independent of intellectual functioning. The relevance of these findings to future studies is discussed. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Global distribution of the He+ column density observed by Extreme Ultra Violet Imager on the International Space Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hozumi, Yuta; Saito, Akinori; Yoshikawa, Ichiro; Yamazaki, Atsushi; Murakami, Go; Yoshioka, Kazuo; Chen, Chia-Hung

2017-07-01

The global distribution of He+ in the topside ionosphere was investigated using data of the He+ resonant scattering emission at 30.4 nm obtained by the Extreme Ultra Violet Imager (EUVI) onboard the International Space Station. The optical observation by EUVI from the low-Earth orbit provides He+ column density data above the altitude of 400 km, presenting a unique opportunity to study the He+ distribution with a different perspective from that of past studies using data from in situ measurements. We analyzed data taken in 2013 and elucidated, for the first time, the seasonal, longitudinal, and latitudinal variations of the He+ column density in the dusk sector. It was found that the He+ column density in the winter hemisphere was about twice that in the summer hemisphere. In the December solstice season, the magnitude of this hemispheric asymmetry was large (small) in the longitudinal sector where the geomagnetic declination is eastward (westward). In the June solstice season, this relationship between the He+ distribution and the geomagnetic declination is reversed. In the equinox seasons, the He+ column densities in the two hemispheres are comparable at most longitudes. The seasonal and longitudinal dependence of the hemispheric asymmetry of the He+ distribution was attributed to the geomagnetic meridional neutral wind in the F region ionosphere. The neutral wind effect on the He+ distribution was examined with an empirical neutral wind model, and it was confirmed that the transport of ions in the topside ionosphere is predominantly affected by the F region neutral wind and the geomagnetic configuration.

Meal pattern among Norwegian primary-school children and longitudinal associations between meal skipping and weight status.

PubMed

Stea, Tonje H; Vik, Frøydis N; Bere, Elling; Svendsen, Martin V; Oellingrath, Inger M

2015-02-01

To investigate meal pattern longitudinally and explore whether meal skipping was associated with overweight among Norwegian children and adolescents. Longitudinal study. Children's meal frequencies were reported by their parents using a retrospective FFQ. Weight and height were measured by public health nurses. Descriptive data comparing 4th and 7th grade were analysed by paired-sample t tests for continuous variables and χ 2 tests for categorical variables. Odds ratio estimates, including confidence intervals, with BMI category (normal/overweight) as the dependent variable, were determined through logistic regression analyses. Primary schools, Telemark County, Norway. A cohort of 428 Norwegian boys and girls; 4th graders in 2007, 7th graders in 2010. The number of children eating four main meals per day (regular meal frequency) decreased from 4th grade (47 %) to 7th grade (38 %; P = 0·001). Those who ate regular meals in 4th grade but not in 7th grade had higher odds (OR = 3·1; 95 % CI 1·1, 9·0) of being overweight in 7th grade after adjusting for gender, maternal education and physical activity, but the odds ratio was not statistically significant after adjusting for overweight in 4th grade (OR = 2·8; 95 % CI 0·7, 11·6). The present study showed significant increases in overall meal skipping among children between 4th and 7th grade. The results indicate an association between overweight and meal skipping, but additional prospective and longitudinal analyses and intervention trials are warranted to confirm this relationship.

Exploring the Correlation Between Nontraditional Variables and Student Success: A Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Strickland, Haley Perkins; Cheshire, Michelle Haney

2017-06-01

The purpose of this project was to determine whether a correlation exists between the traditional admission criteria of grade point averages with the potential admission criteria of emotional intelligence (EI) scores or critical thinking (CT) scores to predict upper division student outcomes. A quantitative, longitudinal design was selected to examine the identified variables to predict undergraduate student success. The recruiting sample included a convenience sample drawn from 112 junior-level undergraduate nursing students beginning their first of a five-semester nursing program. EI and HESI ® CT scores did not significantly correlate with main analysis variables. Although EI and CT scores were not significant in this study, it remains vital to incorporate EI and CT activities throughout the curriculum to develop students' ability to think like a nurse and, therefore, be successful in nursing practice. [J Nurs Educ. 2017;56(6):351-355.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

Cross-Sectional Analysis of Longitudinal Mediation Processes.

PubMed

O'Laughlin, Kristine D; Martin, Monica J; Ferrer, Emilio

2018-01-01

Statistical mediation analysis can help to identify and explain the mechanisms behind psychological processes. Examining a set of variables for mediation effects is a ubiquitous process in the social sciences literature; however, despite evidence suggesting that cross-sectional data can misrepresent the mediation of longitudinal processes, cross-sectional analyses continue to be used in this manner. Alternative longitudinal mediation models, including those rooted in a structural equation modeling framework (cross-lagged panel, latent growth curve, and latent difference score models) are currently available and may provide a better representation of mediation processes for longitudinal data. The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, we provide a comparison of cross-sectional and longitudinal mediation models; second, we advocate using models to evaluate mediation effects that capture the temporal sequence of the process under study. Two separate empirical examples are presented to illustrate differences in the conclusions drawn from cross-sectional and longitudinal mediation analyses. Findings from these examples yielded substantial differences in interpretations between the cross-sectional and longitudinal mediation models considered here. Based on these observations, researchers should use caution when attempting to use cross-sectional data in place of longitudinal data for mediation analyses.

Bone Lengthening in the Pediatric Upper Extremity.

PubMed

Farr, Sebastian; Mindler, Gabriel; Ganger, Rudolf; Girsch, Werner

2016-09-07

➤Bone lengthening has been used successfully for several congenital and acquired conditions in the pediatric clavicle, humerus, radius, ulna, and phalanges.➤Common indications for bone lengthening include achondroplasia, radial longitudinal deficiency, multiple hereditary exostosis, brachymetacarpia, symbrachydactyly, and posttraumatic and postinfectious growth arrest.➤Most authors prefer distraction rates of <1 mm/day for each bone in the upper extremity except the humerus, which can safely be lengthened by 1 mm/day.➤Most authors define success by the amount of radiographic bone lengthening, joint motion after lengthening, and subjective patient satisfaction rather than validated patient-related outcome measures.➤Bone lengthening of the upper extremity is associated with a high complication rate, with complications including pin-track infections, fixation device failure, nerve lesions, nonunion, fracture of regenerate bone, and joint dislocations. Copyright © 2016 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

Long-term variability and changes in thunderstorm induced extreme precipitation in Slovakia over 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pecho, J.; Faško, P.; Bližák, V.; Kajaba, P.; Košálová, J.; Bochníček, O.; Lešková, L.

2012-04-01

It is well known that extreme precipitation associated with intensive rains, in summer induced mostly by local thunderstorm activity, could cause very significant problems in economical and social spheres of the countries. Heavy precipitation and consecutive flash-floods are the most serious weather-related hazards over the territory of Slovakia. The extreme precipitation analyses play a strategic role in many climatological and hydrological evaluations designed for the wide range of technical and engineering applications as well as climate change impact assessments. A thunderstorm, as a violent local storm produced by a cumulonimbus cloud and accompanied by thunder and lightning, represents extreme convective activity in the atmosphere depending upon the release of latent heat, by the condensation of water vapor, for most of its energy. Under the natural conditions of Slovakia the incidence of thunderstorms has been traditionally concentrated in the summer or warm half-year (Apr.-Sept.), but increasing air temperature resulting in higher water vapor content and more intense short-term precipitation is associated with more frequent thunderstorm occurrence in early spring as well as autumn. It is the main reason why the studies of thunderstorm phenomena have increased in Slovakia in recent years. It was found that thunderstorm occurrence, in terms of incidence of storm days, has profoundly changed particularly in spring season (~ 30 % in April and May). The present contribution is devoted to verifying the hypothesis that recently the precipitation has been more intense and significant shifts in seasonal incidence have occurred in particular regions in Slovakia. On the basis of the 60-year (1951-2010) meteorological observation series obtained from more than 20 synoptic stations, the analysis of trends and long-term variability of the days with thunderstorms and the accompanying precipitation for seasons was undertaken. Contribution also attempts to explain the main causes of the thunderstorm as well as extreme precipitation variability. Furthermore, differentiation of daily sums of precipitation for the days with thunderstorms, their long-term variability and probability of occurrence is also presented. Key words: thunderstorm occurrence, trend analysis, extreme precipitation, day with thunderstorm, climate change, climate variability, Slovakia

Joint modeling of longitudinal data and discrete-time survival outcome.

PubMed

Qiu, Feiyou; Stein, Catherine M; Elston, Robert C

2016-08-01

A predictive joint shared parameter model is proposed for discrete time-to-event and longitudinal data. A discrete survival model with frailty and a generalized linear mixed model for the longitudinal data are joined to predict the probability of events. This joint model focuses on predicting discrete time-to-event outcome, taking advantage of repeated measurements. We show that the probability of an event in a time window can be more precisely predicted by incorporating the longitudinal measurements. The model was investigated by comparison with a two-step model and a discrete-time survival model. Results from both a study on the occurrence of tuberculosis and simulated data show that the joint model is superior to the other models in discrimination ability, especially as the latent variables related to both survival times and the longitudinal measurements depart from 0. © The Author(s) 2013.

Heavy Tail Behavior of Rainfall Extremes across Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellarin, A.; Kreibich, H.; Vorogushyn, S.; Merz, B.

2017-12-01

Distributions are termed heavy-tailed if extreme values are more likely than would be predicted by probability distributions that have exponential asymptotic behavior. Heavy-tail behavior often leads to surprise, because historical observations can be a poor guide for the future. Heavy-tail behavior seems to be widespread for hydro-meteorological extremes, such as extreme rainfall and flood events. To date there have been only vague hints to explain under which conditions these extremes show heavy-tail behavior. We use an observational data set consisting of 11 climate variables at 1440 stations across Germany. This homogenized, gap-free data set covers 110 years (1901-2010) at daily resolution. We estimate the upper tail behavior, including its uncertainty interval, of daily precipitation extremes for the 1,440 stations at the annual and seasonal time scales. Different tail indicators are tested, including the shape parameter of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, the upper tail ratio and the obesity index. In a further step, we explore to which extent the tail behavior can be explained by geographical and climate factors. A large number of characteristics is derived, such as station elevation, degree of continentality, aridity, measures for quantifying the variability of humidity and wind velocity, or event-triggering large-scale atmospheric situation. The link between the upper tail behavior and these characteristics is investigated via data mining methods capable of detecting non-linear relationships in large data sets. This exceptionally rich observational data set, in terms of number of stations, length of time series and number of explaining variables, allows insights into the upper tail behavior which is rarely possible given the typical observational data sets available.

A Tree-Ring Based Reconstruction (1725-present) of the Position of the Summer North Atlantic Jet Shows a 20th Century Northward Shift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trouet, V.; Babst, F.

2014-12-01

The position and strength of the Northern Hemisphere polar jet are important modulators of mid-latitude weather extremes and the societal, ecosystem, and economic damage related to them. The position of the North Atlantic jet (NAJ) controls the location of the Atlantic storm track and anomalies in the NAJ position have been related to temperature and precipitation extremes over Europe. In summer, a southern NAJ regime can result in floods in the British Isles (BRIT) and increasing odds of heat waves in the northeastern Mediterranean (NEMED). Variability in the amplitude and speed of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream is hotly debated as a potential mechanism linking recent mid-latitude weather extremes to anthropogenic warming. However, the hypothesis of jet stream variability as a possible mechanism linking Arctic amplification to mid-latitude weather extremes is largely based on data sets with limited temporal extent that do not warrant robust results from a statistical significance perspective. Here, we combined two summer temperature-sensitive tree-ring records from BRIT and NEMED to reconstruct interannual variability in the latitudinal position of the summer NAJ back to 1725. The two well-replicated temperature proxies counter-correlate significantly over the full period and thus illustrate the temperature dipole generated by anomalous NAJ positions. Positive extremes in the NAJ reconstruction correspond to heatwaves recorded in the historical Central England temperature record and negative extremes correspond to reconstructed fire years in Greece. The reconstruction shows a northward shift in the latitudinal NAJ position since the 1930s that is most pronounced in the northern NAJ extremes, suggesting a more frequent occurrence of BRIT hot summers in the 20th century compared to previous centuries.

Detection of Historical and Future Precipitation Variations and Extremes Over the Continental United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Bruce T.

2015-12-11

Problem: The overall goal of this proposal is to detect observed seasonal-mean precipitation variations and extreme event occurrences over the United States. Detection, e.g. the process of demonstrating that an observed change in climate is unusual, first requires some means of estimating the range of internal variability absent any external drivers. Ideally, the internal variability would be derived from the observations themselves, however generally the observed variability is a confluence of both internal variability and variability in response to external drivers. Further, numerical climate models—the standard tool for detection studies—have their own estimates of intrinsic variability, which may differ substantiallymore » from that found in the observed system as well as other model systems. These problems are further compounded for weather and climate extremes, which as singular events are particularly ill-suited for detection studies because of their infrequent occurrence, limited spatial range, and underestimation within global and even regional numerical models. Rationale: As a basis for this research we will show how stochastic daily-precipitation models—models in which the simulated interannual-to-multidecadal precipitation variance is purely the result of the random evolution of daily precipitation events within a given time period—can be used to address many of these issues simultaneously. Through the novel application of these well-established models, we can first estimate the changes/trends in various means and extremes that can occur even with fixed daily-precipitation characteristics, e.g. that can occur simply as a result of the stochastic evolution of daily weather events within a given climate. Detection of a change in the observed climate—either naturally or anthropogenically forced—can then be defined as any change relative to this stochastic variability, e.g. as changes/trends in the means and extremes that could only have occurred through a change in the underlying climate. As such, this method is capable of detecting “hot spot” regions—as well as “flare ups” within the hot spot regions—that have experienced interannual to multi-decadal scale variations and trends in seasonal-mean precipitation and extreme events. Further by applying the same methods to numerical climate models we can discern the fidelity of the current-generation climate models in representing detectability within the observed climate system. In this way, we can objectively determine the utility of these model systems for performing detection studies of historical and future climate change.« less

The Conservative Corner of the Liberal Academy? Fraternity/Sorority Membership, Politics, and Activism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hevel, Michael S.; Weeden, Dustin D.; Pasquesi, Kira; Pascarella, Ernest T.

2015-01-01

We use a longitudinal dataset to explore the effect of fraternity/sorority membership on political orientation and social/political activism. After controlling for a variety of potentially confounding variables, including pretests on the dependent variables, fraternity and sorority members were significantly less liberal that their unaffiliated…

A Longitudinal Study of Occupational Aspirations and Attainments of Iowa Young Adults.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yoesting, Dean R.; And Others

The causal linkage between socioeconomic status, occupational and educational aspiration, and attainment was examined in this attempt to test an existing theoretical model which used socioeconomic status as a major input variable, with significant other influence as a crucial intervening variable between socioeconomic status and aspiration. The…

Longitudinal assessment of optical quality and intraocular scattering using the double-pass instrument in normal eyes and eyes with short tear breakup time.

PubMed

Kobashi, Hidenaga; Kamiya, Kazutaka; Yanome, Kyohei; Igarashi, Akihito; Shimizu, Kimiya

2013-01-01

To assess the longitudinal changes in optical quality including intraocular scattering in normal eyes and eyes with short tear breakup time (TBUT). We prospectively examined twenty eyes of 20 healthy subjects, and age-matched twenty eyes of 20 short TBUT subjects. The modulation transfer function (MTF) cutoff frequency, the Strehl ratio, and the objective scattering index (OSI) were quantitatively assessed using an Optical Quality Analysis System. We investigated the changes in these variables measured consecutively at the initial examination, 5, and 10 seconds without blinking. We also compared these variables in eyes with short TBUT with those in normal eyes. No significant differences in the MTF cutoff frequency, Strehl ratio, or OSI were detected over a 10-second period in normal eyes. These variables also became significantly degraded even over a 5-second period in eyes with short TBUT (p<0.01). We found significant differences in these variables at 5 and 10 seconds (p<0.05), but none immediately after the blink between normal and short TBUT eyes. Optical quality including intraocular scattering deteriorated significantly with time in eyes with short TBUT, whereas we found significant differences over a 10-second period in normal eyes. Eyes with short TBUT showed greater deterioration in optical quality after the blink than normal eyes. The longitudinal assessment of optical quality may be effective in distinguishing eyes with short TBUT from normal eyes.

Adolescents' Conflict Management Styles with Mothers: Longitudinal Associations with Parenting and Reactance.

PubMed

Missotten, Lies Christine; Luyckx, Koen; Branje, Susan; Van Petegem, Stijn

2018-02-01

Adolescents' conflict management styles with parents are assumed to have an important impact on the quality of the parent-adolescent relationship and on adolescents' psychosocial development. Longitudinal research investigating possible determinants of these conflict management skills is scarce. The parenting context and adolescents' tendency to reject maternal authority are expected to shape adolescents' conflict management styles. Therefore, the present three-wave longitudinal study focuses on how parenting and adolescents' reactance relates to adolescents' conflict management styles and conflict frequency with mothers over time, and whether reactance may also explain the associations between parenting and certain conflict variables. We addressed these research questions by using a hybrid cross-lagged panel model with parenting as a latent variable (i.e., supportive parenting) and the other variables as manifest variables. Supportive parenting was measured by four well-known parenting dimensions: autonomy support, responsiveness, psychological control, and harsh control. Four conflict styles were investigated: positive problem solving, withdrawal, conflict engagement, and compliance. Questionnaires were completed by 812 adolescents at three annual waves (52% girls at Time 1). Supportive parenting was associated with fewer conflicts, more positive problem solving, and less compliance and reactance over time. Reactance was associated with more conflicts, conflict engagement and withdrawal, and less compliance. We did not find evidence for the mediating role of reactance in the over-time associations between parenting and adolescents' conflict management and frequency. Both parenting and reactance appeared important and unique determinants for adolescents' conflict management styles and frequency.

Specific and non-specific upper extremity musculoskeletal disorder syndromes in automobile manufacturing workers

PubMed Central

d'Errico, Angelo; Katz, Jeffrey N.; Gore, Rebecca; Punnett, Laura

2009-01-01

Objective A longitudinal cohort of automobile manufacturing workers (n = 1214) was examined for: 1) prevalence and persistence of specific upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders (UEMSDs) such as lateral epicondylitis and de Quervain's disease, and non-specific disorders (NSDs) defined in symptomatic individuals without any specific disorder, and 2) disorder prognoses based on symptom characteristics and other factors. Methods Eight specific disorders were identified through case definitions based on upper extremity physical examinations and symptom surveys administered on three occasions over six years. Results At baseline, 41% of the cohort reported upper extremity symptoms; 18% (n = 214) of these had NSDs. In each survey, tendon-related conditions accounted for over half of the specific morbidity. Twenty-five percent had UEMSDs in multiple anatomical sites, and most with hand/wrist disorders had two or more hand/wrist UEMSDs. Persistence for all specific disorders decreased with length of follow-up. Specific UEMSDs were characterized by greater pain severity and functional impairment, and more lost work days than NSDs. Conclusions Upper extremity symptoms and diagnoses vary over time. NSDs may be the early stages of conditions that will eventually become more specific. NSDs and overlapping specific UEMSDs should be taken into account in UEMSD classification. PMID:19016265

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, J.; Ghimire, N. J.; Jiang, J. S.

Extremely large magnetoresistance (XMR) was recently discovered in YSb but its origin, along with that of many other XMR materials, is an active subject of debate. Here we demonstrate that YSb, with a cubic crystalline lattice and anisotropic bulk electron Fermi pockets, can be an excellent candidate for revealing the origin of XMR. We carried out angle dependent Shubnikov – de Haas quantum oscillation measurements to determine the volume and shape of the Fermi pockets. In addition, by investigating both Hall and longitudinal magnetoresistivities, we reveal that the origin of XMR in YSb lies in its carrier high mobility withmore » a diminishing Hall factor that is obtained from the ratio of the Hall and longitudinal magentoresistivities. The high mobility leads to a strong magnetic field dependence of the longitudinal magnetoconductivity while a diminishing Hall factor reveals the latent XMR hidden in the longitudinal magnetoconductivity whose inverse has a nearly quadratic magnetic-field dependence. The Hall factor highlights the deviation of the measured magnetoresistivity from its full potential value and provides a general formulation to reveal the origin of XMR behavior in high mobility materials and of nonsaturating MR behavior as a whole. Our approach can be readily applied to other XMR materials.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeChant, Lawrence Justin; Smith, Justin A.

Here we discuss an improved Corcos (Corcos (1963), (1963)) style cross spectral density utilizing zero pressure gradient, supersonic (Beresh et. al. (2013)) data sets. Using the connection between narrow band measurements with broadband cross-spectral density, i.e. Γ(ξ ,η ,ω )= Φ (ω) A(ωη/U )exp (-i ωξ/U) we focus on estimating coherence expressions of the form: A (ξω nb/U) and B (ηω nb/ U) where ω nb denotes the narrow band frequency, i.e. the band center frequency value and ξ and η are sensors spacing in streamwise/longitudinal and cross-stream/lateral directions, respectively. A methodology to estimate the parameters which retains the Corcosmore » exponential functional form, A(ξω/U)=exp(-k lat ηω/U) but identifies new parameters (constants) consistent with the Beresh et. al. data sets is discussed. The Corcos result requires that the data be properly explained by self-similar variable: ξω/U and ηω/U. The longitudinal (streamwise) variable ξω/U tends to provide a better data collapse, while, consistent with the literature the lateral ηω/U is only successful for higher band center frequencies. Assuming the similarity variables provide a useful description of the data, the longitudinal coherence decay constant result using the Beresh et. al. data sets yields a value for the longitudinal constant k long≈0.36-0.28 that is approximately 3x larger than the “traditional” (low speed, large Reynolds number and zero pressure gradient) of k long≈0.11. We suggest that the most likely reason that the Beresh et. al. data sets incur increased longitudinal decay which results in reduced coherence lengths is due to wall shear induced compression causing an adverse pressure gradient. Focusing on the higher band center frequency measurements where the frequency dependent similarity variables are applicable, the lateral or transverse coherence decay constant k lat≈0.7 is consistent with the “traditional” (low speed, large Reynolds number and zero pressure gradient). It should be noted, that the longitudinal/streamwise coherence decay deviates from the value observed by other researchers while the lateral/ cross-stream value is consistent has been observed by other researchers. We believe that while the measurements used to obtain new decay constant estimates are from internal wind tunnel tests, they likely provide a useful estimate expected reentry flow behavior and are therefore recommended for use. These data could also be useful in determining the uncertainty of correlation length for a uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis.« less

SU-E-T-155: Calibration of Variable Longitudinal Strength 103Pd Brachytherapy Sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reed, J; Radtke, J; Micka, J

Purpose: Brachytherapy sources with variable longitudinal strength (VLS) allow for a customized intensity along the length of the source. These have applications in focal brachytherapy treatments of prostate cancer where dose boosting can be achieved through modulation of intra-source strengths. This work focused on development of a calibration methodology for VLS sources based on measurements and Monte Carlo (MC) simulations of five 1 cm {sup 10} {sup 3}Pd sources each containing four regions of variable {sup 103}Pd strength. Methods: The air-kerma strengths of the sources were measured with a variable-aperture free-air chamber (VAFAC). Source strengths were also measured using amore » well chamber. The in-air azimuthal and polar anisotropy of the sources were measured by rotating them in front of a NaI scintillation detector and were calculated with MC simulations. Azimuthal anisotropy results were normalized to their mean intensity values. Polar anisotropy results were normalized to their average transverse axis intensity values. The relative longitudinal strengths of the sources were measured via on-contact irradiations with radiochromic film, and were calculated with MC simulations. Results: The variable {sup 103}Pd loading of the sources was validated by VAFAC and well chamber measurements. Ratios of VAFAC air-kerma strengths and well chamber responses were within ±1.3% for all sources. Azimuthal anisotropy results indicated that ≥95% of the normalized values for all sources were within ±1.7% of the mean values. Polar anisotropy results indicated variations within ±0.3% for a ±7.6° angular region with respect to the source transverse axis. Locations and intensities of the {sup 103}Pd regions were validated by radiochromic film measurements and MC simulations. Conclusion: The calibration methodology developed in this work confirms that the VLS sources investigated have a high level of polar uniformity, and that the strength and longitudinal intensity can be verified experimentally and through MC simulations. {sup 103}Pd sources were provided by CivaTech Oncology, Inc.« less

Multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick

2013-04-01

Many studies have anticipated a worldwide increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes and floods since the last decade(s). Natural variability by climate oscillations partly determines the observed evolution of precipitation extremes. Based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles, it is shown that hydrological extremes have oscillatory behaviour at multidecadal time scales. Results are based on nearly independent extremes extracted from long-term historical time series of precipitation intensities and river flows. Study regions include Belgium - The Netherlands (Meuse basin), Ethiopia (Blue Nile basin) and Ecuador (Paute basin). For Belgium - The Netherlands, the past 100 years showed larger and more hydrological extremes around the 1910s, 1950-1960s, and more recently during the 1990-2000s. Interestingly, the oscillations for southwestern Europe are anti-correlated with these of northwestern Europe, thus with oscillation highs in the 1930-1940s and 1970s. The precipitation oscillation peaks are explained by persistence in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic during periods of 10 to 15 years. References: Ntegeka V., Willems P. (2008), 'Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100 years time series of 10 minutes rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium', Water Resources Research, 44, W07402, doi:10.1029/2007WR006471 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water Resources Research, 48, W03513, 13p. Willems, P., Olsson, J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Beecham, S., Pathirana, A., Bülow Gregersen, I., Madsen, H., Nguyen, V-T-V. (2012), 'Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage', IWA Publishing, 252p., Paperback Print ISBN 9781780401256; Ebook ISBN 9781780401263

Developmental Origins of Low Mathematics Performance and Normal Variation in Twins from 7 to 9 Years

PubMed Central

Haworth, Claire M. A.; Kovas, Yulia; Petrill, Stephen A.; Plomin, Robert

2009-01-01

A previous publication reported the etiology of mathematics performance in 7-year-old twins (Oliver et al., 2004). As part of the same longitudinal study we investigated low mathematics performance and normal variation in a representative United Kingdom sample of 1713 same-sex 9-year-old twins based on teacher-assessed National Curriculum standards. Univariate individual differences and DeFries-Fulker extremes analyses were performed. Similar to our results at 7 years, all mathematics scores at 9 years showed high heritability (.62–.75) and low shared environmental estimates (.00–.11) for both the low performance group and the full sample. Longitudinal analyses were performed from 7 to 9 years. These longitudinal analyses indicated strong genetic continuity from 7 to 9 years for both low performance and mathematics in the normal range. We conclude that, despite the considerable differences in mathematics curricula from 7 to 9 years, the same genetic effects largely operate at the two ages. PMID:17539370

The MJO-SSW Teleconnection: Interaction Between MJO-Forced Waves and the Midlatitude Jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Wanying; Tziperman, Eli

2018-05-01

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was shown to affect both present-day sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the Arctic and their future frequency under global warming scenarios, with implications to the Arctic Oscillation and midlatitude extreme weather. This work uses a dry dynamic core model to understand the dependence of SSW frequency on the amplitude and longitudinal range of the MJO, motivated by the prediction that the MJO will strengthen and broaden its longitudinal range in a warmer climate. We focus on the response of the midlatitude jets and the corresponding generated stationary waves, which are shown to dominate the response of SSW events to MJO forcing. Momentum budget analysis of a large ensemble of spinup simulations suggests that the climatological jet response is driven by the MJO-forced meridional eddy momentum transport. The results suggest that the trends in both MJO amplitude and longitudinal range are important for the prediction of the midlatitude jet response and for the prediction of SSWs in a future climate.

Developmental origins of low mathematics performance and normal variation in twins from 7 to 9 years.

PubMed

Haworth, Claire M A; Kovas, Yulia; Petrill, Stephen A; Plomin, Robert

2007-02-01

A previous publication reported the etiology of mathematics performance in 7-year-old twins (Oliver et al., 2004). As part of the same longitudinal study we investigated low mathematics performance and normal variation in a representative United Kingdom sample of 1713 same-sex 9-year-old twins based on teacher-assessed National Curriculum standards. Univariate individual differences and DeFries-Fulker extremes analyses were performed. Similar to our results at 7 years, all mathematics scores at 9 years showed high heritability (.62-.75) and low shared environmental estimates (.00-.11) for both the low performance group and the full sample. Longitudinal analyses were performed from 7 to 9 years. These longitudinal analyses indicated strong genetic continuity from 7 to 9 years for both low performance and mathematics in the normal range. We conclude that, despite the considerable differences in mathematics curricula from 7 to 9 years, the same genetic effects largely operate at the two ages.

Variability in activity may precede diabetic foot ulceration.

PubMed

Armstrong, David G; Lavery, Lawrence A; Holtz-Neiderer, Katherine; Mohler, Martha J; Wendel, Christopher S; Nixon, Brent P; Boulton, Andrew J M

2004-08-01

To evaluate the role of activity in the development of neuropathic foot ulceration in individuals with diabetes. We evaluated the first 100 consecutive individuals with diabetes (95.0% male, aged 68.5 +/- 10.0 years with concomitant neuropathy, deformity, and/or a history of lower-extremity ulceration/partial foot amputation) enrolled in an ongoing prospective longitudinal activity study. Subjects used a high-capacity continuous computerized activity monitor. Data were collected continuously over a minimum of 25 weeks (or until ulceration) with daily activity units expressed as means +/- SD. Eight subjects ulcerated during the evaluation period of 37.1 +/- 12.3 weeks. The average daily activity was significantly lower in individuals who ulcerated compared with individuals who did not ulcerate (809.0 +/- 612.2 vs. 1,394.5 +/- 868.5, P = 0.03). Furthermore, there was a large difference in variability between groups. The coefficient of variation was significantly greater in the ulceration group compared with the no ulceration group (96.4 +/- 50.3 vs. 44.7 +/- 15.4%, P = 0.0001). In the 2 weeks preceding the ulcerative event, the coefficient of variation increased even further (115.4 +/- 43.0%, P = 0.02), but there was no significant difference in average daily activity during that period (P = 0.5). The results of this study suggest that individuals with diabetes who develop ulceration may actually have a lower overall activity than their counterparts with no ulceration, but the quality of that activity may be more variable. Perhaps modulating the "peaks and valleys" of activity in this population through some form of feedback might prove to reduce risk for ulceration in this very-high-risk population.

Economic development and road traffic fatalities in Russia: analysis of federal regions 2004-2011.

PubMed

He, Huan; Paichadze, Nino; Hyder, Adnan A; Bishai, David

2015-12-01

The relationship between economic development and road safety at sub-national level has not been well established. This study aims to assess the relationships between economic growth (measured by gross regional product (GRP)) and road traffic fatalities (RTFs) and crash fatality ratio (CFR) at sub-national level in Russia. We used published secondary data on annual RTFs and CFR obtained from the traffic police and socioeconomic development indicators from the statistics department for each Russian federal region (referred to in Russia as "subject") for 2004-2011. We used multivariate fixed effects models for longitudinal data to examine the GRP-RTF and the GRP-CFR relationships excluding regions with extreme values. Time (in years) and a set of relevant socioeconomic variables (territory, population, number of privately owned cars, number of public buses, length of public motor roads, number of physicians, and budget expenditure on health care and physical wellness) were also included as covariates in the models. The RTF rates decreased monotonically over time as GRP per capita increased in 66 studied regions during 2004-2011. This relationship was mainly explained by the number of privately owned cars and partially explained by year dummy variables, number of buses, and number of physicians. CFR also decreased monotonically as GRP per capita increased in 67 studied regions. This relationship between economic growth and CFR was fully explained by secular time trends. The year dummy effects on CFR were not mediated by other socioeconomic variables included in the study. For the period of 2004-2011 in Russia, the reduction in RTFs is mostly explained by increasing the number of private cars, while the reduction of CFR is mostly associated with year-effects suggesting a process of diffusion of knowledge, which is not solely dominated by economic growth.

To track or not to track: user reactions to concepts in longitudinal health monitoring.

PubMed

Beaudin, Jennifer S; Intille, Stephen S; Morris, Margaret E

2006-01-01

Advances in ubiquitous computing, smart homes, and sensor technologies enable novel, longitudinal health monitoring applications in the home. Many home monitoring technologies have been proposed to detect health crises, support aging-in-place, and improve medical care. Health professionals and potential end users in the lay public, however, sometimes question whether home health monitoring is justified given the cost and potential invasion of privacy. The aim of the study was to elicit specific feedback from health professionals and laypeople about how they might use longitudinal health monitoring data for proactive health and well-being. Interviews were conducted with 8 health professionals and 26 laypeople. Participants were asked to evaluate mock data visualization displays that could be generated by novel home monitoring systems. The mock displays were used to elicit reactions to longitudinal monitoring in the home setting as well as what behaviors, events, and physiological indicators people were interested in tracking. Based on the qualitative data provided by the interviews, lists of benefits of and concerns about health tracking from the perspectives of the practitioners and laypeople were compiled. Variables of particular interest to the interviewees, as well as their specific ideas for applications of collected data, were documented. Based upon these interviews, we recommend that ubiquitous "monitoring" systems may be more readily adopted if they are developed as tools for personalized, longitudinal self-investigation that help end users learn about the conditions and variables that impact their social, cognitive, and physical health.

Gene expression models for prediction of longitudinal dispersion coefficient in streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sattar, Ahmed M. A.; Gharabaghi, Bahram

2015-05-01

Longitudinal dispersion is the key hydrologic process that governs transport of pollutants in natural streams. It is critical for spill action centers to be able to predict the pollutant travel time and break-through curves accurately following accidental spills in urban streams. This study presents a novel gene expression model for longitudinal dispersion developed using 150 published data sets of geometric and hydraulic parameters in natural streams in the United States, Canada, Europe, and New Zealand. The training and testing of the model were accomplished using randomly-selected 67% (100 data sets) and 33% (50 data sets) of the data sets, respectively. Gene expression programming (GEP) is used to develop empirical relations between the longitudinal dispersion coefficient and various control variables, including the Froude number which reflects the effect of reach slope, aspect ratio, and the bed material roughness on the dispersion coefficient. Two GEP models have been developed, and the prediction uncertainties of the developed GEP models are quantified and compared with those of existing models, showing improved prediction accuracy in favor of GEP models. Finally, a parametric analysis is performed for further verification of the developed GEP models. The main reason for the higher accuracy of the GEP models compared to the existing regression models is that exponents of the key variables (aspect ratio and bed material roughness) are not constants but a function of the Froude number. The proposed relations are both simple and accurate and can be effectively used to predict the longitudinal dispersion coefficients in natural streams.

Significance of Environmental Variables on Flight Electronics and Design Concerns for Extreme Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazeli, K.; Kingstedt, O. T.

2017-05-01

It is critical to investigate the performance of electronic systems and their components under the environments experienced during proposed missions to improve spacecraft and robotic vehicle functionality and performance in extreme environments.

Northern Eurasian Heat Waves and Droughts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max; Groisman, Pavel

2013-01-01

This article reviews our understanding of the characteristics and causes of northern Eurasian summertime heat waves and droughts. Additional insights into the nature of temperature and precipitation variability in Eurasia on monthly to decadal time scales and into the causes and predictability of the most extreme events are gained from the latest generation of reanalyses and from supplemental simulations with the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM. Key new results are: 1) the identification of the important role of summertime stationary Rossby waves in the development of the leading patterns of monthly Eurasian surface temperature and precipitation variability (including the development of extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave), 2) an assessment of the mean temperature and precipitation changes that have occurred over northern Eurasia in the last three decades and their connections to decadal variability and global trends in SST, and 3) the quantification (via a case study) of the predictability of the most extreme simulated heat wave/drought events, with some focus on the role of soil moisture in the development and maintenance of such events. A literature survey indicates a general consensus that the future holds an enhanced probability of heat waves across northern Eurasia, while there is less agreement regarding future drought, reflecting a greater uncertainty in soil moisture and precipitation projections. Substantial uncertainties remain in our understanding of heat waves and drought, including the nature of the interactions between the short-term atmospheric variability associated with such extremes and the longer-term variability and trends associated with soil moisture feedbacks, SST anomalies, and an overall warming world.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-08-06

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Logit-normal mixed model for Indian Monsoon rainfall extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietz, L. R.; Chatterjee, S.

2014-03-01

Describing the nature and variability of Indian monsoon rainfall extremes is a topic of much debate in the current literature. We suggest the use of a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), specifically, the logit-normal mixed model, to describe the underlying structure of this complex climatic event. Several GLMM algorithms are described and simulations are performed to vet these algorithms before applying them to the Indian precipitation data procured from the National Climatic Data Center. The logit-normal model was applied with fixed covariates of latitude, longitude, elevation, daily minimum and maximum temperatures with a random intercept by weather station. In general, the estimation methods concurred in their suggestion of a relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extreme rainfall variability estimates. This work provides a valuable starting point for extending GLMM to incorporate the intricate dependencies in extreme climate events.

Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) Multiple EUV Grating Spectrographs (MEGS): Radiometric Calibrations and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hock, R. A.; Woods, T. N.; Crotser, D.; Eparvier, F. G.; Woodraska, D. L.; Chamberlin, P. C.; Woods, E. C.

2010-01-01

The NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), scheduled for launch in early 2010, incorporates a suite of instruments including the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE). EVE has multiple instruments including the Multiple Extreme ultraviolet Grating Spectrographs (MEGS) A, B, and P instruments, the Solar Aspect Monitor (SAM), and the Extreme ultraviolet SpectroPhotometer (ESP). The radiometric calibration of EVE, necessary to convert the instrument counts to physical units, was performed at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Synchrotron Ultraviolet Radiation Facility (SURF III) located in Gaithersburg, Maryland. This paper presents the results and derived accuracy of this radiometric calibration for the MEGS A, B, P, and SAM instruments, while the calibration of the ESP instrument is addressed by Didkovsky et al. . In addition, solar measurements that were taken on 14 April 2008, during the NASA 36.240 sounding-rocket flight, are shown for the prototype EVE instruments.

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE PAGES

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Regional estimation of extreme suspended sediment concentrations using watershed characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; St-Hilaire, André; Poulin, Jimmy

2010-01-01

SummaryThe number of stations monitoring daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) has been decreasing since the 1980s in North America while suspended sediment is considered as a key variable for water quality. The objective of this study is to test the feasibility of regionalising extreme SSC, i.e. estimating SSC extremes values for ungauged basins. Annual maximum SSC for 72 rivers in Canada and USA were modelled with probability distributions in order to estimate quantiles corresponding to different return periods. Regionalisation techniques, originally developed for flood prediction in ungauged basins, were tested using the climatic, topographic, land cover and soils attributes of the watersheds. Two approaches were compared, using either physiographic characteristics or seasonality of extreme SSC to delineate the regions. Multiple regression models to estimate SSC quantiles as a function of watershed characteristics were built in each region, and compared to a global model including all sites. Regional estimates of SSC quantiles were compared with the local values. Results show that regional estimation of extreme SSC is more efficient than a global regression model including all sites. Groups/regions of stations have been identified, using either the watershed characteristics or the seasonality of occurrence for extreme SSC values providing a method to better describe the extreme events of SSC. The most important variables for predicting extreme SSC are the percentage of clay in the soils, precipitation intensity and forest cover.

Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zscheischler, Jakob; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Compound climate extremes are receiving increasing attention because of their disproportionate impacts on humans and ecosystems. Risks assessments, however, generally focus on univariate statistics even when multiple stressors are considered. Concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves have been observed to cause a suite of extreme impacts on natural and human systems alike. For example, they can substantially affect vegetation health, prompting tree mortality, and thereby facilitating insect outbreaks and fires. In addition, hot droughts have the potential to trigger and intensify fires and can cause severe economical damage. By promoting disease spread, extremely hot and dry conditions also strongly affect human health. We analyse the co-occurrence of dry and hot summers and show that these are strongly correlated for many regions, inducing a much higher frequency of concurrent hot and dry summers than what would be assumed from the independent combination of the univariate statistics. Our results demonstrate how the dependence structure between variables affects the occurrence frequency of multivariate extremes. Assessments based on univariate statistics can thus strongly underestimate risks associated with given extremes, if impacts depend on multiple (dependent) variables. We conclude that a multivariate perspective is necessary in order to appropriately assess changes in climate extremes and their impacts, and to design adaptation strategies.

The Nature of Phonological Awareness: Converging Evidence from Four Studies of Preschool and Early Grade School Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anthony, Jason L.; Lonigan, Christopher J.

2004-01-01

Significant controversy exists about the nature of phonological awareness, a causal variable in reading acquisition. In 4 studies that included 202 5- to 6-year-old children studied longitudinally for 3 years, 123 2- to 5-year-old children, 38 4-year-old children studied longitudinally for 2 years, and 826 4- to 7-year-old children, the authors…

How do Rumination and Social Problem Solving Intensify Depression? A Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Akira; Kunisato, Yoshihiko; Morimoto, Hiroshi; Nishimura, Haruki; Matsuda, Yuko

2018-01-01

In order to examine how rumination and social problem solving intensify depression, the present study investigated longitudinal associations among each dimension of rumination and social problem solving and evaluated aspects of these constructs that predicted subsequent depression. A three-wave longitudinal study, with an interval of 4 weeks between waves, was conducted. Japanese university students completed the Beck Depression Inventory-Second Edition, Ruminative Responses Scale, Social Problem-Solving Inventory-Revised Short Version, and Interpersonal Stress Event Scale on three occasions 4 weeks apart ( n  = 284 at Time 1, 198 at Time 2, 165 at Time 3). Linear mixed models were analyzed to test whether each variable predicted subsequent depression, rumination, and each dimension of social problem solving. Rumination and negative problem orientation demonstrated a mutually enhancing relationship. Because these two variables were not associated with interpersonal conflict during the subsequent 4 weeks, rumination and negative problem orientation appear to strengthen each other without environmental change. Rumination and impulsivity/carelessness style were associated with subsequent depressive symptoms, after controlling for the effect of initial depression. Because rumination and impulsivity/carelessness style were not concurrently and longitudinally associated with each other, rumination and impulsive/careless problem solving style appear to be independent processes that serve to intensify depression.

Mendelian randomization analysis of a time-varying exposure for binary disease outcomes using functional data analysis methods.

PubMed

Cao, Ying; Rajan, Suja S; Wei, Peng

2016-12-01

A Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis is performed to analyze the causal effect of an exposure variable on a disease outcome in observational studies, by using genetic variants that affect the disease outcome only through the exposure variable. This method has recently gained popularity among epidemiologists given the success of genetic association studies. Many exposure variables of interest in epidemiological studies are time varying, for example, body mass index (BMI). Although longitudinal data have been collected in many cohort studies, current MR studies only use one measurement of a time-varying exposure variable, which cannot adequately capture the long-term time-varying information. We propose using the functional principal component analysis method to recover the underlying individual trajectory of the time-varying exposure from the sparsely and irregularly observed longitudinal data, and then conduct MR analysis using the recovered curves. We further propose two MR analysis methods. The first assumes a cumulative effect of the time-varying exposure variable on the disease risk, while the second assumes a time-varying genetic effect and employs functional regression models. We focus on statistical testing for a causal effect. Our simulation studies mimicking the real data show that the proposed functional data analysis based methods incorporating longitudinal data have substantial power gains compared to standard MR analysis using only one measurement. We used the Framingham Heart Study data to demonstrate the promising performance of the new methods as well as inconsistent results produced by the standard MR analysis that relies on a single measurement of the exposure at some arbitrary time point. © 2016 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

CSF biomarker variability in the Alzheimer’s Association quality control program

PubMed Central

Mattsson, Niklas; Andreasson, Ulf; Persson, Staffan; Carrillo, Maria C.; Collins, Steven; Chalbot, Sonia; Cutler, Neal; Dufour-Rainfray, Diane; Fagan, Anne M.; Heegaard, Niels H. H.; Hsiung, Ging-Yuek Robin; Hyman, Bradley; Iqbal, Khalid; Lachno, D. Richard; Lleó, Alberto; Lewczuk, Piotr; Molinuevo, José L.; Parchi, Piero; Regeniter, Axel; Rissman, Robert; Rosenmann, Hanna; Sancesario, Giuseppe; Schröder, Johannes; Shaw, Leslie M.; Teunissen, Charlotte E.; Trojanowski, John Q.; Vanderstichele, Hugo; Vandijck, Manu; Verbeek, Marcel M.; Zetterberg, Henrik; Blennow, Kaj; Käser, Stephan A.

2013-01-01

Background The cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers amyloid beta 1–42, total tau, and phosphorylated tau are used increasingly for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) research and patient management. However, there are large variations in biomarker measurements among and within laboratories. Methods Data from the first nine rounds of the Alzheimer’s Association quality control program was used to define the extent and sources of analytical variability. In each round, three CSF samples prepared at the Clinical Neurochemistry Laboratory (Mölndal, Sweden) were analyzed by single-analyte enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), a multiplexing xMAP assay, or an immunoassay with electrochemoluminescence detection. Results A total of 84 laboratories participated. Coefficients of variation (CVs) between laboratories were around 20% to 30%; within-run CVs, less than 5% to 10%; and longitudinal within-laboratory CVs, 5% to 19%. Interestingly, longitudinal within-laboratory CV differed between biomarkers at individual laboratories, suggesting that a component of it was assay dependent. Variability between kit lots and between laboratories both had a major influence on amyloid beta 1–42 measurements, but for total tau and phosphorylated tau, between-kit lot effects were much less than between-laboratory effects. Despite the measurement variability, the between-laboratory consistency in classification of samples (using prehoc-derived cutoffs for AD) was high (>90% in 15 of 18 samples for ELISA and in 12 of 18 samples for xMAP). Conclusions The overall variability remains too high to allow assignment of universal biomarker cutoff values for a specific intended use. Each laboratory must ensure longitudinal stability in its measurements and use internally qualified cutoff levels. Further standardization of laboratory procedures and improvement of kit performance will likely increase the usefulness of CSF AD biomarkers for researchers and clinicians. PMID:23622690

Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America.

PubMed

Vörösmarty, Charles J; Bravo de Guenni, Lelys; Wollheim, Wilfred M; Pellerin, Brian; Bjerklie, David; Cardoso, Manoel; D'Almeida, Cassiano; Green, Pamela; Colon, Lilybeth

2013-11-13

Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960-2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard, exposure, affectedpopulations, vulnerability and risk, and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.

Consistency of clinical biomechanical measures between three different institutions: implications for multi-center biomechanical and epidemiological research.

PubMed

Myer, Gregory D; Wordeman, Samuel C; Sugimoto, Dai; Bates, Nathaniel A; Roewer, Benjamin D; Medina McKeon, Jennifer M; DiCesare, Christopher A; Di Stasi, Stephanie L; Barber Foss, Kim D; Thomas, Staci M; Hewett, Timothy E

2014-05-01

Multi-center collaborations provide a powerful alternative to overcome the inherent limitations to single-center investigations. Specifically, multi-center projects can support large-scale prospective, longitudinal studies that investigate relatively uncommon outcomes, such as anterior cruciate ligament injury. This project was conceived to assess within- and between-center reliability of an affordable, clinical nomogram utilizing two-dimensional video methods to screen for risk of knee injury. The authors hypothesized that the two-dimensional screening methods would provide good-to-excellent reliability within and between institutions for assessment of frontal and sagittal plane biomechanics. Nineteen female, high school athletes participated. Two-dimensional video kinematics of the lower extremity during a drop vertical jump task were collected on all 19 study participants at each of the three facilities. Within-center and between-center reliability were assessed with intra- and inter-class correlation coefficients. Within-center reliability of the clinical nomogram variables was consistently excellent, but between-center reliability was fair-to-good. Within-center intra-class correlation coefficient for all nomogram variables combined was 0.98, while combined between-center inter-class correlation coefficient was 0.63. Injury risk screening protocols were reliable within and repeatable between centers. These results demonstrate the feasibility of multi-site biomechanical studies and establish a framework for further dissemination of injury risk screening algorithms. Specifically, multi-center studies may allow for further validation and optimization of two-dimensional video screening tools. 2b.

Incidence and risk factors for retinopathy of prematurity in a Brazilian reference service.

PubMed

Gonçalves, Eduardo; Násser, Luciano Sólia; Martelli, Daniella Reis; Alkmim, Isadora Ramos; Mourão, Thalita Veloso; Caldeira, Antônio Prates; Martelli, Hercílio

2014-01-01

Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a known cause of blindness in which diagnosis and timely treatment can prevent serious harm to the child. This study aimed to evaluate the incidence of ROP and its association with known risk factors. Longitudinal incidence study in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) of Universidade Estadual de Montes Claros. Newborns admitted to the NICU with gestational age less than 32 weeks and/or birth weight less than 1,500 grams, were followed up over a two-year period. The assessment and diagnosis of ROP were defined in accordance with a national protocol. The chi-square test or Fisher's exact test were used to determine associations between independent variables and ROP. Analysis on the independent effect of the variables on the results was performed using multiple logistic regression. The incidence of ROP was 44.5% (95% confidence interval, CI = 35.6-46.1) in the study population. The risk factors associated with the risk of developing the disease were: birth weight less than 1,000 grams (odds ratio, OR = 4.14; 95% CI = 1.34-12.77); gestational age less than 30 weeks (OR = 6.69; 95% CI = 2.10-21.31); use of blood derivatives (OR = 4.14; 95% CI = 2.99-8.99); and presence of sepsis (OR = 1.99; 95% CI = 1.45-2.40). The incidence of ROP was higher than that found in the literature. The main risk factors were related to extreme prematurity.

Early treatment improves urodynamic prognosis in neurogenic voiding dysfunction: 20 years of experience.

PubMed

Costa Monteiro, Lucia M; Cruz, Glaura O; Fontes, Juliana M; Vieira, Eliane T R C; Santos, Eloá N; Araújo, Grace F; Ramos, Eloane G

To evaluate the association between early treatment and urodynamic improvement in pediatric and adolescent patients with neurogenic bladder. Retrospective longitudinal and observational study (between 1990 and 2013) including patients with neurogenic bladder and myelomeningocele treated based on urodynamic results. The authors evaluated the urodynamic follow-up (bladder compliance and maximum bladder capacity and pressure) considering the first urodynamic improvement in two years as the outcome variable and early referral as the exposure variable, using a descriptive and multivariate analysis with logistic regression model. Among 230 patients included, 52% had an early referral. The majority were diagnosed as overactive bladder with high bladder pressure (≥40cm H 2 O) and low bladder compliance (3mL/cmH 2 O) and were treated with oxybutynin and intermittent catheterization. Urodynamic follow-up results showed 68% of improvement at the second urodynamic examination decreasing bladder pressure and increasing bladder capacity and compliance. The percentage of incontinence and urinary tract infections decreased over treatment. Early referral (one-year old or less) increased by 3.5 the probability of urodynamic improvement in two years (95% CI: 1.81-6.77). Treatment onset within the first year of life improves urodynamic prognosis in patients with neurogenic bladder and triplicates the probability of urodynamic improvement in two years. The role of neonatologists and pediatricians in early referral is extremely important. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Regionally dependent summer heat wave response to increased surface temperature in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, H.; Dong, S.; Kirtman, B. P.; Goni, G. J.; Lee, S. K.; Atlas, R. M.; West, R.

2017-12-01

Climate projections for the 21st Century suggest an increase in the occurrence of heat waves. However, the time it takes for the externally forced signal of climate change to emerge against the background of natural variability (i.e., Time of Emergence, ToE) particularly on the regional scale makes reliable future projection of heat waves challenging. Here, we combine observations and model simulations under present and future climate forcing to assess internal variability versus external forcing in modulating US heat waves. We characterized the most common heat wave patterns over the US by the use of clustering of extreme events by their spatial distribution. For each heat wave cluster, we assess changes in the probability density function (PDF) of summer temperature extremes by modeling the PDF as a stochastically generated skewed (SGS) distribution. The probability of necessary causation for each heat wave cluster was also quantified, allowing to make assessments of heat extreme attribution to anthropogenic climate change. The results suggest that internal variability will dominate heat wave occurrence over the Great Plains with ToE occurring in the 2050s (2070s) and of occurrence of ratio of warm-to-cold extremes of 1.7 (1.7) for the Northern (Southern) Plains. In contrast, external forcing will dominate over the Western (Great Lakes) region with ToE occurring as early as in the 2020s (2030s) and warm-to-cold extremes ratio of 6.4 (10.2), suggesting caution in attributing heat extremes to external forcing due to their regional dependence.

Spatiotemporal variation in heat-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest during the summer in Japan.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2017-04-01

Although several studies have reported the impacts of extremely high temperature on cardiovascular diseases, few studies have investigated the spatiotemporal variation in the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) due to extremely high temperature in Japan. Daily OHCA data from 2005 to 2014 were acquired from all 47 prefectures of Japan. We used time-series Poisson regression analysis combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the temporal variability in the effects of extremely high temperature on OHCA incidence in each prefecture, adjusted for time trends. Spatial variability in the relationships between extremely high temperature and OHCA between prefectures was estimated using a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis. We analyzed 166,496 OHCA cases of presumed cardiac origin occurring during the summer (June to September) that met the inclusion criteria. The minimum morbidity percentile (MMP) was the 51st percentile of temperature during the summer in Japan. The overall cumulative relative risk at the 99th percentile vs. the MMP over lags 0-10days was 1.21 (95% CI: 1.12-1.31). There was also a strong low temperature effect during the summer periods. No substantial difference in spatial or temporal variability was observed over the study period. Our study demonstrated spatiotemporal homogeneity in the risk of OHCA during periods of extremely high temperature between 2005 and 2014 in Japan. Our findings suggest that public health strategies for OHCA due to extremely high temperatures should be finely adjusted and should particularly account for the unchanging risk during the summer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vautard, Robert; Christidis, Nikolaos; Ciavarella, Andrew; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen; Bellprat, Omar; Christiansen, Bo; Colfescu, Ioana; Cowan, Tim; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Eden, Jonathan; Hauser, Mathias; Hegerl, Gabriele; Hempelmann, Nils; Klehmet, Katharina; Lott, Fraser; Nangini, Cathy; Orth, René; Radanovics, Sabine; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Stott, Peter; Tett, Simon; Wilcox, Laura; Yiou, Pascal

2018-04-01

A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960-2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land-atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution.

Disentangling the Effects of Violent Victimization, Violent Behavior, and Gun Carrying for Minority Inner-City Youth Living in Extreme Poverty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spano, Richard; Bolland, John

2013-01-01

Two waves of longitudinal data were used to examine the sequencing between violent victimization, violent behavior, and gun carrying in a high-poverty sample of African American youth. Multivariate logistic regression results indicated that violent victimization T1 and violent behavior T1 increased the likelihood of initiation of gun carrying T2…

Evolution of association between renal and liver functions while awaiting heart transplant: An application using a bivariate multiphase nonlinear mixed effects model.

PubMed

Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Blackstone, Eugene H; Barnard, John

2018-07-01

In many longitudinal follow-up studies, we observe more than one longitudinal outcome. Impaired renal and liver functions are indicators of poor clinical outcomes for patients who are on mechanical circulatory support and awaiting heart transplant. Hence, monitoring organ functions while waiting for heart transplant is an integral part of patient management. Longitudinal measurements of bilirubin can be used as a marker for liver function and glomerular filtration rate for renal function. We derive an approximation to evolution of association between these two organ functions using a bivariate nonlinear mixed effects model for continuous longitudinal measurements, where the two submodels are linked by a common distribution of time-dependent latent variables and a common distribution of measurement errors.

Increased medial longitudinal arch mobility, lower extremity kinematics, and ground reaction forces in high-arched runners.

PubMed

Williams, D S Blaise; Tierney, Robin N; Butler, Robert J

2014-01-01

Runners with high medial longitudinal arch structure demonstrate unique kinematics and kinetics that may lead to running injuries. The mobility of the midfoot as measured by the change in arch height is also suspected to play a role in lower extremity function during running. The effect of arch mobility in high-arched runners is an important factor in prescribing footwear, training, and rehabilitating the running athlete after injury. To examine the effect of medial longitudinal arch mobility on running kinematics, ground reaction forces, and loading rates in high-arched runners. Cross-sectional study. Human movement research laboratory. A total of 104 runners were screened for arch height. Runners were then identified as having high arches if the arch height index was greater than 0.5 SD above the mean. Of the runners with high arches, 11 rigid runners with the lowest arch mobility (R) were compared with 8 mobile runners with the highest arch mobility (M). Arch mobility was determined by calculating the left arch height index in all runners. Three-dimensional motion analysis of running over ground. Rearfoot and tibial angular excursions, eversion-to-tibial internal-rotation ratio, vertical ground reaction forces, and the associated loading rates. Runners with mobile arches exhibited decreased tibial internal-rotation excursion (mobile: 5.6° ± 2.3° versus rigid: 8.0° ± 3.0°), greater eversion-to-tibial internal-rotation ratio (mobile: 2.1 ± 0.8 versus rigid: 1.5 ± 0.5), decreased second peak vertical ground reaction force values (mobile: 2.3 ± 0.2 × body weight versus rigid: 2.4 ± 0.1 × body weight), and decreased vertical loading rate values (mobile: 55.7 ± 14.1 × body weight/s versus rigid: 65.9 ± 11.4 × body weight/s). Based on the results of this study, it appears that runners with high arch structure but differing arch mobility exhibited differences in select lower extremity movement patterns and forces. Future authors should investigate the impact of arch mobility on running-related injuries.

Analysis of epigenetic changes in survivors of preterm birth reveals the effect of gestational age and evidence for a long term legacy

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Preterm birth confers a high risk of adverse long term health outcomes for survivors, yet the underlying molecular mechanisms are unclear. We hypothesized that effects of preterm birth can be mediated through measurable epigenomic changes throughout development. We therefore used a longitudinal birth cohort to measure the epigenetic mark of DNA methylation at birth and 18 years comparing survivors of extremely preterm birth with infants born at term. Methods Using 12 extreme preterm birth cases and 12 matched, term controls, we extracted DNA from archived neonatal blood spots and blood collected in a similar way at 18 years of age. DNA methylation was measured at 347,789 autosomal locations throughout the genome using Infinium HM450 arrays. Representative methylation differences were confirmed by Sequenom MassArray EpiTYPER. Results At birth we found 1,555 sites with significant differences in methylation between term and preterm babies. At 18 years of age, these differences had largely resolved, suggesting that DNA methylation differences at birth are mainly driven by factors relating to gestational age, such as cell composition and/or maturity. Using matched longitudinal samples, we found evidence for an epigenetic legacy associated with preterm birth, identifying persistent methylation differences at ten genomic loci. Longitudinal comparisons of DNA methylation at birth and 18 years uncovered a significant overlap between sites that were differentially-methylated at birth and those that changed with age. However, we note that overlapping sites may either differ in the same (300/1,555) or opposite (431/1,555) direction during gestation and aging respectively. Conclusions We present evidence for widespread methylation differences between extreme preterm and term infants at birth that are largely resolved by 18 years of age. These results are consistent with methylation changes associated with blood cell development, cellular composition, immune induction and age at these time points. Finally, we identified ten probes significantly associated with preterm individuals and with greater than 5% methylation discordance at birth and 18 years that may reflect a long term epigenetic legacy of preterm birth. PMID:24134860

Distinguishing State Variability From Trait Change in Longitudinal Data: The Role of Measurement (Non)Invariance in Latent State-Trait Analyses

PubMed Central

Geiser, Christian; Keller, Brian T.; Lockhart, Ginger; Eid, Michael; Cole, David A.; Koch, Tobias

2014-01-01

Researchers analyzing longitudinal data often want to find out whether the process they study is characterized by (1) short-term state variability, (2) long-term trait change, or (3) a combination of state variability and trait change. Classical latent state-trait (LST) models are designed to measure reversible state variability around a fixed set-point or trait, whereas latent growth curve (LGC) models focus on long-lasting and often irreversible trait changes. In the present paper, we contrast LST and LGC models from the perspective of measurement invariance (MI) testing. We show that establishing a pure state-variability process requires (a) the inclusion of a mean structure and (b) establishing strong factorial invariance in LST analyses. Analytical derivations and simulations demonstrate that LST models with non-invariant parameters can mask the fact that a trait-change or hybrid process has generated the data. Furthermore, the inappropriate application of LST models to trait change or hybrid data can lead to bias in the estimates of consistency and occasion-specificity, which are typically of key interest in LST analyses. Four tips for the proper application of LST models are provided. PMID:24652650

Seasonal precipitation extreme indices in mainland Portugal: trends and variability in the period 1941-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santo, Fátima E.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; de Lima, M. Isabel P.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

Changes in the precipitation regimes are expected to be accompanied by variations in the occurrence of extreme events, which in turn could be related to low frequency variability. The impact on the society and environment requires that the regional specificities are understood. For mainland Portugal, this work reports the results of the analysis of trends in selected precipitation indices calculated from daily precipitation data from 57 meteorological stations, recorded in the period 1941-2007; additionally we have also investigated the correlations between these indices and several modes of low frequency variability over the area. We focus on exploring regional differences and seasonal variations in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events. The precipitation indices were assessed at the seasonal scale and calculated at both the station and regional scales. Results sometimes highlight marked changes in seasonal precipitation and show that: i) trends in spring and autumn have opposite signals: statistically significant drying trends in the spring are accompanied by a reduction in precipitation extremes; in autumn, wetting trends are detected for all precipitation indices, although overall they are not significant at the 5% level; ii) there seems to be a tendency for a reduction in the duration of the rainy season; iii) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the mode of variability that has the highest influence on precipitation extremes over mainland Portugal, particularly in the winter and autumn, and is one of the most important teleconnection patterns in all seasons. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) through project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Observed variability of summer precipitation pattern and extreme events in East China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: VARIABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION AND EXTREME EVENT IN EAST CHINA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Lei; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Yaocun

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of interannual and interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and precipitation-related extreme events in China associated with variations of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from 1979-2012. A high-quality daily precipitation dataset covering 2287 weather stations in China is analyzed. Based on the precipitation pattern analysis using empirical orthogonal functions, three sub-periods of 1979-1992 (period I), 1993-1999 (period II) and 2000-2012 (period III) are identified to be representative of the precipitation variability. Similar significant variability of the extreme precipitation indices is found across four sub-regions in eastern China. The spatial patterns of summer mean precipitation,more » the number of days with daily rainfall exceeding 95th percentile precipitation (R95p) and the maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD) anomalies are consistent, but opposite to that of maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) anomalies during the three sub-periods. However, the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic intensity (HY-INT) are notably different from that of the other three extreme indices, but highly correlated to the dry events. The changes of precipitation anomaly patterns are accompanied by the change of the EASM regime and the abrupt shift of the position of the west Pacific subtropical high around 1992/1993 and 1999/2000, respectively, which influence the moisture transport that contributes most to the precipitation anomalies. Lastly, the EASM intensity is linked to sea surface temperature anomaly over the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean that influences deep convection over the oceans.« less

Evaluating wind extremes in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Devashish; Mishra, Vimal; Ganguly, Auroop R.

2015-07-01

Wind extremes have consequences for renewable energy sectors, critical infrastructures, coastal ecosystems, and insurance industry. Considerable debates remain regarding the impacts of climate change on wind extremes. While climate models have occasionally shown increases in regional wind extremes, a decline in the magnitude of mean and extreme near-surface wind speeds has been recently reported over most regions of the Northern Hemisphere using observed data. Previous studies of wind extremes under climate change have focused on selected regions and employed outputs from the regional climate models (RCMs). However, RCMs ultimately rely on the outputs of global circulation models (GCMs), and the value-addition from the former over the latter has been questioned. Regional model runs rarely employ the full suite of GCM ensembles, and hence may not be able to encapsulate the most likely projections or their variability. Here we evaluate the performance of the latest generation of GCMs, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), in simulating extreme winds. We find that the multimodel ensemble (MME) mean captures the spatial variability of annual maximum wind speeds over most regions except over the mountainous terrains. However, the historical temporal trends in annual maximum wind speeds for the reanalysis data, ERA-Interim, are not well represented in the GCMs. The historical trends in extreme winds from GCMs are statistically not significant over most regions. The MME model simulates the spatial patterns of extreme winds for 25-100 year return periods. The projected extreme winds from GCMs exhibit statistically less significant trends compared to the historical reference period.

Incremental Value of Repeated Risk Factor Measurements for Cardiovascular Disease Prediction in Middle-Aged Korean Adults: Results From the NHIS-HEALS (National Health Insurance System-National Health Screening Cohort).

PubMed

Cho, In-Jeong; Sung, Ji Min; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chung, Namsik; Kim, Hyeon Chang

2017-11-01

Increasing evidence suggests that repeatedly measured cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may have an additive predictive value compared with single measured levels. Thus, we evaluated the incremental predictive value of incorporating periodic health screening data for CVD prediction in a large nationwide cohort with periodic health screening tests. A total of 467 708 persons aged 40 to 79 years and free from CVD were randomly divided into development (70%) and validation subcohorts (30%). We developed 3 different CVD prediction models: a single measure model using single time point screening data; a longitudinal average model using average risk factor values from periodic screening data; and a longitudinal summary model using average values and the variability of risk factors. The development subcohort included 327 396 persons who had 3.2 health screenings on average and 25 765 cases of CVD over 12 years. The C statistics (95% confidence interval [CI]) for the single measure, longitudinal average, and longitudinal summary models were 0.690 (95% CI, 0.682-0.698), 0.695 (95% CI, 0.687-0.703), and 0.752 (95% CI, 0.744-0.760) in men and 0.732 (95% CI, 0.722-0.742), 0.735 (95% CI, 0.725-0.745), and 0.790 (95% CI, 0.780-0.800) in women, respectively. The net reclassification index from the single measure model to the longitudinal average model was 1.78% in men and 1.33% in women, and the index from the longitudinal average model to the longitudinal summary model was 32.71% in men and 34.98% in women. Using averages of repeatedly measured risk factor values modestly improves CVD predictability compared with single measurement values. Incorporating the average and variability information of repeated measurements can lead to great improvements in disease prediction. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02931500. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Trends in Cold Extremes and Winter Weather for the SPTC Region

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-05-31

Extreme weather poses multifaceted hazards to transportation. There is now increased awareness of the threats of climate variability and change on transportation safety and state of good repair. In particular, a non-stationary climate will potentiall...

Explanatory model of emotional-cognitive variables in school mathematics performance: a longitudinal study in primary school.

PubMed

Cerda, Gamal; Pérez, Carlos; Navarro, José I; Aguilar, Manuel; Casas, José A; Aragón, Estíbaliz

2015-01-01

This study tested a structural model of cognitive-emotional explanatory variables to explain performance in mathematics. The predictor variables assessed were related to students' level of development of early mathematical competencies (EMCs), specifically, relational and numerical competencies, predisposition toward mathematics, and the level of logical intelligence in a population of primary school Chilean students (n = 634). This longitudinal study also included the academic performance of the students during a period of 4 years as a variable. The sampled students were initially assessed by means of an Early Numeracy Test, and, subsequently, they were administered a Likert-type scale to measure their predisposition toward mathematics (EPMAT) and a basic test of logical intelligence. The results of these tests were used to analyse the interaction of all the aforementioned variables by means of a structural equations model. This combined interaction model was able to predict 64.3% of the variability of observed performance. Preschool students' performance in EMCs was a strong predictor for achievement in mathematics for students between 8 and 11 years of age. Therefore, this paper highlights the importance of EMCs and the modulating role of predisposition toward mathematics. Also, this paper discusses the educational role of these findings, as well as possible ways to improve negative predispositions toward mathematical tasks in the school domain.

Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries.

PubMed

Bathiany, Sebastian; Dakos, Vasilis; Scheffer, Marten; Lenton, Timothy M

2018-05-01

Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C -1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate.

Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries

PubMed Central

Dakos, Vasilis; Scheffer, Marten

2018-01-01

Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C−1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate. PMID:29732409

Exploring changes in the spatial distribution of stream baseflow generation during a seasonal recession

Treesearch

R.A. Payn; M.N. Gooseff; B.L. McGlynn; K.E. Bencala; S.M. Wondzell

2012-01-01

Relating watershed structure to streamflow generation is a primary focus of hydrology. However, comparisons of longitudinal variability in stream discharge with adjacent valley structure have been rare, resulting in poor understanding of the distribution of the hydrologic mechanisms that cause variability in streamflow generation along valleys. This study explores...

Ethnicity, Disadvantage and Other Variables in the Analysis of Birmingham Longitudinal School Attainment Datasets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parsons, Carl; Thompson, Trevor

2017-01-01

Explaining and responding to inequalities in attainment are significant educational policy challenges in England as elsewhere. Data on four cohorts of Birmingham Local Education Authority (LEA) pupils, each approximately 13,000, were analysed by ethnicity, deprivation, gender and other relevant individual pupil variables. For the four successive…

The Relationship of Maternal and Infant Variables to School Readiness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubin, Rosalyn A.; And Others

A prospective longitudinal investigation related 76 maternal and infant variables to performance on the Metropolitan Readiness Tests (MRT) at age six. The 1,245 study subjects have been followed since birth. Their distribution on measures of intelligence and socioeconomic status is essentially normal. Subjects with high MRT scores were found to…

Modeling Time-Dependent Association in Longitudinal Data: A Lag as Moderator Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Selig, James P.; Preacher, Kristopher J.; Little, Todd D.

2012-01-01

We describe a straightforward, yet novel, approach to examine time-dependent association between variables. The approach relies on a measurement-lag research design in conjunction with statistical interaction models. We base arguments in favor of this approach on the potential for better understanding the associations between variables by…

Children's Motivation in Elementary Physical Education: A Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xiang, Ping; McBride, Ron; Guan, Jianmin

2004-01-01

The present study examined relationships among variables drawn from achievement goal theory and the expectancy-value model of achievement choice as well as mean level changes of these variables over time in elementary physical education. Participants (N = 207) completed questionnaires over a 2-year period: once while in the second and fourth…

Mean-Level Change and Intraindividual Variability in Self-Esteem and Depression among High-Risk Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Jungmeen; Cicchetti, Dante

2009-01-01

This study investigated mean-level changes and intraindividual variability of self-esteem among maltreated (N = 142) and nonmaltreated (N = 109) school-aged children from low-income families. Longitudinal factor analysis revealed higher temporal stability of self-esteem among maltreated children compared to nonmaltreated children. Cross-domain…

Identification of Student- and Teacher-Level Variables in Modeling Variation of Mathematics Achievement Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tarr, James E.; Ross, Daniel J.; McNaught, Melissa D.; Chavez, Oscar; Grouws, Douglas A.; Reys, Robert E.; Sears, Ruthmae; Taylan, R. Didem

2010-01-01

The Comparing Options in Secondary Mathematics: Investigating Curriculum (COSMIC) project is a longitudinal study of student learning from two types of mathematics curricula: integrated and subject-specific. Previous large-scale research studies such as the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) indicate that numerous variables are…

The Role of Schools, Families, and Psychological Variables on Math Achievement of Black High School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strayhorn, Terrell L.

2010-01-01

Using data from the National Education Longitudinal Study (NELS;1988/2000), the author conducted hierarchical linear regression analyses, with a nested design, to estimate the influence of affective variables--parent involvement, teacher perceptions, and school environments--on Black students' math achievement in grade 10. Drawing on…

Multilevel Latent Class Analysis: Parametric and Nonparametric Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, W. Holmes; French, Brian F.

2014-01-01

Latent class analysis is an analytic technique often used in educational and psychological research to identify meaningful groups of individuals within a larger heterogeneous population based on a set of variables. This technique is flexible, encompassing not only a static set of variables but also longitudinal data in the form of growth mixture…

Intervening Variables in the TV Violence-Aggression Relation: Evidence from Two Countries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huesmann, L. Rowell; And Others

1984-01-01

A longitudinal, cross-cultural field study was made to determine boundary conditions under which the television violence/aggression relation obtains, to determine intervening variables, and to illuminate the process through which television violence relates to aggression. Children from first through fifth grades in the United States, Australia,…

Asymmetrical Responses of Ecosystem Processes to Positive Versus Negative Precipitation Extremes: a Replicated Regression Experimental Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felton, A. J.; Smith, M. D.

2016-12-01

Heightened climatic variability due to atmospheric warming is forecast to increase the frequency and severity of climate extremes. In particular, changes to interannual variability in precipitation, characterized by increases in extreme wet and dry years, are likely to impact virtually all terrestrial ecosystem processes. However, to date experimental approaches have yet to explicitly test how ecosystem processes respond to multiple levels of climatic extremity, limiting our understanding of how ecosystems will respond to forecast increases in the magnitude of climate extremes. Here we report the results of a replicated regression experimental approach, in which we imposed 9 and 11 levels of growing season precipitation amount and extremity in mesic grassland during 2015 and 2016, respectively. Each level corresponded to a specific percentile of the long-term record, which produced a large gradient of soil moisture conditions that ranged from extreme wet to extreme dry. In both 2015 and 2016, asymptotic responses to water availability were observed for soil respiration. This asymmetry was driven in part by transitions between soil moisture versus temperature constraints on respiration as conditions became increasingly dry versus increasingly wet. In 2015, aboveground net primary production (ANPP) exhibited asymmetric responses to precipitation that largely mirrored those of soil respiration. In total, our results suggest that in this mesic ecosystem, these two carbon cycle processes were more sensitive to extreme drought than to extreme wet years. Future work will assess ANPP responses for 2016, soil nutrient supply and physiological responses of the dominant plant species. Future efforts are needed to compare our findings across a diverse array of ecosystem types, and in particular how the timing and magnitude of precipitation events may modify the response of ecosystem processes to increasing magnitudes of precipitation extremes.

Temperature extremes in Alaska: temporal variability and circulation background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulikowska, Agnieszka; Walawender, Jakub P.; Walawender, Ewelina

2018-06-01

The aims of this study are to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of extremely warm days (WDs) and warm spells (WSs) in summer as well as extremely cold days (CDs) and cold spells (CSs) in winter in Alaska in the years 1951-2015 and to determine the role of atmospheric circulation in their occurrence. The analysis is performed using daily temperature maxima (T MAX) and minima (T MIN) measured at 10 weather stations in Alaska as well as mean daily values of sea level pressure and wind direction at the 850 hPa isobaric level. WD (CD) is defined as a day with T MAX above the 95th (T MIN below the 5th) percentile of a probability density function calculated from observations, and WS (CS) equals at least three consecutive WDs (CDs). Frequency of the occurrence and severity of warm and cold extremes as well as duration of WSs and CSs is analyzed. In order to characterize synoptic conditions during temperature extremes, the objective classification scheme of advection types considering jointly the direction of the air influx and type of pressure system is employed. The results show that the general trend is towards the warmer temperatures, and the warming is greater in the winter than summer and for T MAX as opposed to T MIN. This is reflected in changes in the frequency of occurrence and intensity of temperature extremes which are much more pronounced in the case of winter cold extremes (decreasing tendencies) than summer warm extremes (increasing tendencies). The occurrence of temperature extremes is generally favored by anticyclonic weather with advection direction indicating air mass flows from the interior of the North American continent as well as the south (warm extremes in summer) and north (cold extremes in winter).

Longitudinal assessment of maternal parenting capacity variables and child adjustment outcomes in pediatric cancer.

PubMed

Fedele, David A; Mullins, Larry L; Wolfe-Christensen, Cortney; Carpentier, Melissa Y

2011-04-01

This preliminary investigation aimed to longitudinally examine parenting capacity variables, namely parental overprotection, perceived child vulnerability, and parenting stress and their relation to child adjustment in mothers of children on treatment for cancer. As part of a larger study, biological mothers (N=22) completed measures of parental overprotection, perceived child vulnerability, parenting stress, and child adjustment at Time 1 and a follow-up time point. Analyses were conducted to determine whether (1) levels of parental overprotection, perceived child vulnerability, and parenting stress declined from Time 1 to follow-up and (2) if Time 1 parenting capacity variables were associated with child adjustment at follow-up. Results revealed that parental overprotection, perceived child vulnerability, and parenting stress declined from Time 1 to follow-up, and levels of parental overprotection, perceived child vulnerability, and parenting stress at Time 1 were significantly related to child adjustment at follow-up. Collectively, the preliminary findings of this study indicate that mothers of children with cancer evidence improved parenting capacity over time. Furthermore, it seems that Time 1 parenting capacity variables are significantly related to later child adjustment.

A joint modeling and estimation method for multivariate longitudinal data with mixed types of responses to analyze physical activity data generated by accelerometers.

PubMed

Li, Haocheng; Zhang, Yukun; Carroll, Raymond J; Keadle, Sarah Kozey; Sampson, Joshua N; Matthews, Charles E

2017-11-10

A mixed effect model is proposed to jointly analyze multivariate longitudinal data with continuous, proportion, count, and binary responses. The association of the variables is modeled through the correlation of random effects. We use a quasi-likelihood type approximation for nonlinear variables and transform the proposed model into a multivariate linear mixed model framework for estimation and inference. Via an extension to the EM approach, an efficient algorithm is developed to fit the model. The method is applied to physical activity data, which uses a wearable accelerometer device to measure daily movement and energy expenditure information. Our approach is also evaluated by a simulation study. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Longitudinal Evaluation of Cognitive Functioning in Young Children with Type 1 Diabetes over 18 Months.

PubMed

Cato, M Allison; Mauras, Nelly; Mazaika, Paul; Kollman, Craig; Cheng, Peiyao; Aye, Tandy; Ambrosino, Jodie; Beck, Roy W; Ruedy, Katrina J; Reiss, Allan L; Tansey, Michael; White, Neil H; Hershey, Tamara

2016-03-01

Decrements in cognitive function may already be evident in young children with type 1 diabetes (T1D). Here we report prospectively acquired cognitive results over 18 months in a large cohort of young children with and without T1D. A total of 144 children with T1D (mean HbA1c: 7.9%) and 70 age-matched healthy controls (mean age both groups 8.5 years; median diabetes duration 3.9 years; mean age of onset 4.1 years) underwent neuropsychological testing at baseline and after 18-months of follow-up. We hypothesized that group differences observed at baseline would be more pronounced after 18 months, particularly in those T1D patients with greatest exposure to glycemic extremes. Cognitive domain scores did not differ between groups at the 18 month testing session and did not change differently between groups over the follow-up period. However, within the T1D group, a history of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) was correlated with lower Verbal IQ and greater hyperglycemia exposure (HbA1c area under the curve) was inversely correlated to executive functions test performance. In addition, those with a history of both types of exposure performed most poorly on measures of executive function. The subtle cognitive differences between T1D children and nondiabetic controls observed at baseline were not observed 18 months later. Within the T1D group, as at baseline, relationships between cognition (Verbal IQ and executive functions) and glycemic variables (chronic hyperglycemia and DKA history) were evident. Continued longitudinal study of this T1D cohort and their carefully matched healthy comparison group is planned.

Longitudinal Evaluation of Cognitive Functioning in Young Children with Type 1 Diabetes over 18 Months

PubMed Central

Cato, M. Allison; Mauras, Nelly; Mazaika, Paul; Kollman, Craig; Cheng, Peiyao; Aye, Tandy; Ambrosino, Jodie; Beck, Roy W.; Ruedy, Katrina J.; Reiss, Allan L.; Tansey, Michael; White, Neil H.; Hershey, Tamara

2016-01-01

Objective Decrements in cognitive function may already be evident in young children with type 1 diabetes (T1D). Here we report prospectively acquired cognitive results over 18 months in a large cohort of young children with and without T1D. Methods 144 children with T1D (mean HbA1c: 7.9%) and 70 age-matched healthy controls (mean age both groups 8.5 years; median diabetes duration 3.9 yrs; mean age of onset 4.1 yrs) underwent neuropsychological testing at baseline and after 18-months of follow-up. We hypothesized that group differences observed at baseline would be more pronounced after 18 months, particularly in those T1D patients with greatest exposure to glycemic extremes. Results Cognitive domain scores did not differ between groups at the 18 month testing session and did not change differently between groups over the follow-up period. However, within the T1D group, a history of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) was correlated with lower Verbal IQ and greater hyperglycemia exposure (HbA1c area under the curve) was inversely correlated to executive functions test performance. In addition, those with a history of both types of exposure performed most poorly on measures of executive function. Conclusions The subtle cognitive differences between T1D children and nondiabetic controls observed at baseline were not observed 18 months later. Within the T1D group, as at baseline, relationships between cognition (VIQ and executive functions) and glycemic variables (chronic hyperglycemia and DKA history) were evident. Continued longitudinal study of this T1D cohort and their carefully matched healthy comparison group is planned. PMID:26786245

Towards low flow risk maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blauhut, Veit; Stölzle, Michael; Stahl, Kerstin

2017-04-01

Drought induced low flow extremes, despite a variety of management strategies, can cause direct and indirect impacts on socio economic and ecological functions of rivers. These negative effects determine local risk and are a function of the regional drought hazard and the river system's vulnerability. Whereas drought risk analysis is known to be essential for drought management, risk analysis for low flow is less common. Where no distributed hydrological models exist, merely the local hazard at gauging stations is available to represent the entire catchment. Vulnerability information are only sparsely available. Hence, a comprehensive understanding of the drivers of low flow risk along the longitudinal river profile is often lacking. For two different rivers in southwestern Germany, this study analysed major low flow events of the past five decades. Applying a transdisciplinary approach, the hazard component is assessed by hydro-climatic analysis, hydrological modelling and forward looking stress test scenarios; the vulnerability component is estimated by a combination of impact assessment and vulnerability estimation, based on stakeholder workshops, questionnaires and regional characteristics. The results show distinct differences in low flow risk between the catchments and along the river. These differences are due to: hydrogeological characteristics that govern groundwater-surface water interaction, catchment-specific anthropogenic stimuli such as low flow decrease by near-stream groundwater pumping for public water supply or low flow augmentation by treatment plant discharge. Thus, low flow risk is anthropogenically influenced in both ways: positive and negative. Furthermore, the measured longitudinal profiles highlight the impracticability of single gauges to represent quantitative and qualitative conditions of entire rivers. Hence, this work calls for a comprehensive spatially variable consideration of flow characteristics and human influences to analyse low flow risk as the basis for an adequate low flow management.

A dependence modelling study of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouveia-Reis, Délia; Guerreiro Lopes, Luiz; Mendonça, Sandra

2016-08-01

The dependence between variables plays a central role in multivariate extremes. In this paper, spatial dependence of Madeira Island's rainfall data is addressed within an extreme value copula approach through an analysis of maximum annual data. The impact of altitude, slope orientation, distance between rain gauge stations and distance from the stations to the sea are investigated for two different periods of time. The results obtained highlight the influence of the island's complex topography on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island.

Permissive Attitude Towards Drug Use, Life Satisfaction, and Continuous Drug Use Among Psychoactive Drug Users in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Cheung, N Wt; Cheung, Y W; Chen, X

2016-06-01

To examine the effects of a permissive attitude towards regular and occasional drug use, life satisfaction, self-esteem, depression, and other psychosocial variables in the drug use of psychoactive drug users. Psychosocial factors that might affect a permissive attitude towards regular / occasional drug use and life satisfaction were further explored. We analysed data of a sample of psychoactive drug users from a longitudinal survey of psychoactive drug abusers in Hong Kong who were interviewed at 6 time points at 6-month intervals between January 2009 and December 2011. Data of the second to the sixth time points were stacked into an individual time point structure. Random-effects probit regression analysis was performed to estimate the relative contribution of the independent variables to the binary dependent variable of drug use in the last 30 days. A permissive attitude towards drug use, life satisfaction, and depression at the concurrent time point, and self-esteem at the previous time point had direct effects on drug use in the last 30 days. Interestingly, permissiveness to occasional drug use was a stronger predictor of drug use than permissiveness to regular drug use. These 2 permissive attitude variables were affected by the belief that doing extreme things shows the vitality of young people (at concurrent time point), life satisfaction (at concurrent time point), and self-esteem (at concurrent and previous time points). Life satisfaction was affected by sense of uncertainty about the future (at concurrent time point), self-esteem (at concurrent time point), depression (at both concurrent and previous time points), and being stricken by stressful events (at previous time point). A number of psychosocial factors could affect the continuation or discontinuation of drug use, as well as the permissive attitude towards regular and occasional drug use, and life satisfaction. Implications of the findings for prevention and intervention work targeted at psychoactive drug users are discussed.

A Projection of Changes in Landfilling Atmospheric River Frequency and Extreme Precipitation over Western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

Simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project are analyzed to investigate the impact of global warming on atmospheric rivers (ARs). The model has notable biases in simulating the subtropical jet position and the relationship between extreme precipitation and moisture transport. After accounting for these biases, the model projects an ensemble mean increase of 35% in the number of landfalling AR days between the last twenty years of the 20th and 21st centuries. However, the number of AR associated extreme precipitation days increases only by 28% because the moisture transport required to produce extreme precipitation also increases withmore » warming. Internal variability introduces an uncertainty of ±8% and ±7% in the projected changes in AR days and associated extreme precipitation days. In contrast, accountings for model biases only change the projected changes by about 1%. The significantly larger mean changes compared to internal variability and to the effects of model biases highlight the robustness of AR responses to global warming.« less

Dual-energy imaging of bone marrow edema on a dedicated multi-source cone-beam CT system for the extremities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zbijewski, W.; Sisniega, A.; Stayman, J. W.; Thawait, G.; Packard, N.; Yorkston, J.; Demehri, S.; Fritz, J.; Siewerdsen, J. H.

2015-03-01

Purpose: Arthritis and bone trauma are often accompanied by bone marrow edema (BME). BME is challenging to detect in CT due to the overlaying trabecular structure but can be visualized using dual-energy (DE) techniques to discriminate water and fat. We investigate the feasibility of DE imaging of BME on a dedicated flat-panel detector (FPD) extremities cone-beam CT (CBCT) with a unique x-ray tube with three longitudinally mounted sources. Methods: Simulations involved a digital BME knee phantom imaged with a 60 kVp low-energy beam (LE) and 105 kVp high-energy beam (HE) (+0.25 mm Ag filter). Experiments were also performed on a test-bench with a Varian 4030CB FPD using the same beam energies as the simulation study. A three-source configuration was implemented with x-ray sources distributed along the longitudinal axis and DE CBCT acquisition in which the superior and inferior sources operate at HE (and collect half of the projection angles each) and the central source operates at LE. Three-source DE CBCT was compared to a double-scan, single-source orbit. Experiments were performed with a wrist phantom containing a 50 mg/ml densitometry insert submerged in alcohol (simulating fat) with drilled trabeculae down to ~1 mm to emulate the trabecular matrix. Reconstruction-based three-material decomposition of fat, soft tissue, and bone was performed. Results: For a low-dose scan (36 mAs in the HE and LE data), DE CBCT achieved combined accuracy of ~0.80 for a pattern of BME spherical lesions ranging 2.5 - 10 mm diameter in the knee phantom. The accuracy increased to ~0.90 for a 360 mAs scan. Excellent DE discrimination of the base materials was achieved in the experiments. Approximately 80% of the alcohol (fat) voxels in the trabecular phantom was properly identified both for single and 3-source acquisitions, indicating the ability to detect edemous tissue (water-equivalent plastic in the body of the densitometry insert) from the fat inside the trabecular matrix (emulating normal trabecular bone with significant fraction of yellow marrow). Conclusion: Detection of BME and quantification of water and fat content were achieved in extremities DE CBCT with a longitudinal configuration of sources providing DE imaging in a single gantry rotation. The findings support the development of DE imaging capability for CBCT of the extremities in areas conventionally in the domain of MRI.

Dual-Energy Imaging of Bone Marrow Edema on a Dedicated Multi-Source Cone-Beam CT System for the Extremities

PubMed Central

Zbijewski, W.; Sisniega, A.; Stayman, J. W.; Thawait, G.; Packard, N.; Yorkston, J.; Demehri, S.; Fritz, J.; Siewerdsen, J. H.

2015-01-01

Purpose Arthritis and bone trauma are often accompanied by bone marrow edema (BME). BME is challenging to detect in CT due to the overlaying trabecular structure but can be visualized using dual-energy (DE) techniques to discriminate water and fat. We investigate the feasibility of DE imaging of BME on a dedicated flat-panel detector (FPD) extremities cone-beam CT (CBCT) with a unique x-ray tube with three longitudinally mounted sources. Methods Simulations involved a digital BME knee phantom imaged with a 60 kVp low-energy beam (LE) and 105 kVp high-energy beam (HE) (+0.25 mm Ag filter). Experiments were also performed on a test-bench with a Varian 4030CB FPD using the same beam energies as the simulation study. A three-source configuration was implemented with x-ray sources distributed along the longitudinal axis and DE CBCT acquisition in which the superior and inferior sources operate at HE (and collect half of the projection angles each) and the central source operates at LE. Three-source DE CBCT was compared to a double-scan, single-source orbit. Experiments were performed with a wrist phantom containing a 50 mg/ml densitometry insert submerged in alcohol (simulating fat) with drilled trabeculae down to ~1 mm to emulate the trabecular matrix. Reconstruction-based three-material decomposition of fat, soft tissue, and bone was performed. Results For a low-dose scan (36 mAs in the HE and LE data), DE CBCT achieved combined accuracy of ~0.80 for a pattern of BME spherical lesions ranging 2.5 – 10 mm diameter in the knee phantom. The accuracy increased to ~0.90 for a 360 mAs scan. Excellent DE discrimination of the base materials was achieved in the experiments. Approximately 80% of the alcohol (fat) voxels in the trabecular phantom was properly identified both for single and 3-source acquisitions, indicating the ability to detect edemous tissue (water-equivalent plastic in the body of the densitometry insert) from the fat inside the trabecular matrix (emulating normal trabecular bone with significant fraction of yellow marrow). Conclusion Detection of BME and quantification of water and fat content were achieved in extremities DE CBCT with a longitudinal configuration of sources providing DE imaging in a single gantry rotation. The findings support the development of DE imaging capability for CBCT of the extremities in areas conventionally in the domain of MRI. PMID:26045631

Dual-Energy Imaging of Bone Marrow Edema on a Dedicated Multi-Source Cone-Beam CT System for the Extremities.

PubMed

Zbijewski, W; Sisniega, A; Stayman, J W; Thawait, G; Packard, N; Yorkston, J; Demehri, S; Fritz, J; Siewerdsen, J H

2015-02-21

Arthritis and bone trauma are often accompanied by bone marrow edema (BME). BME is challenging to detect in CT due to the overlaying trabecular structure but can be visualized using dual-energy (DE) techniques to discriminate water and fat. We investigate the feasibility of DE imaging of BME on a dedicated flat-panel detector (FPD) extremities cone-beam CT (CBCT) with a unique x-ray tube with three longitudinally mounted sources. Simulations involved a digital BME knee phantom imaged with a 60 kVp low-energy beam (LE) and 105 kVp high-energy beam (HE) (+0.25 mm Ag filter). Experiments were also performed on a test-bench with a Varian 4030CB FPD using the same beam energies as the simulation study. A three-source configuration was implemented with x-ray sources distributed along the longitudinal axis and DE CBCT acquisition in which the superior and inferior sources operate at HE (and collect half of the projection angles each) and the central source operates at LE. Three-source DE CBCT was compared to a double-scan, single-source orbit. Experiments were performed with a wrist phantom containing a 50 mg/ml densitometry insert submerged in alcohol (simulating fat) with drilled trabeculae down to ~1 mm to emulate the trabecular matrix. Reconstruction-based three-material decomposition of fat, soft tissue, and bone was performed. For a low-dose scan (36 mAs in the HE and LE data), DE CBCT achieved combined accuracy of ~0.80 for a pattern of BME spherical lesions ranging 2.5 - 10 mm diameter in the knee phantom. The accuracy increased to ~0.90 for a 360 mAs scan. Excellent DE discrimination of the base materials was achieved in the experiments. Approximately 80% of the alcohol (fat) voxels in the trabecular phantom was properly identified both for single and 3-source acquisitions, indicating the ability to detect edemous tissue (water-equivalent plastic in the body of the densitometry insert) from the fat inside the trabecular matrix (emulating normal trabecular bone with significant fraction of yellow marrow). Detection of BME and quantification of water and fat content were achieved in extremities DE CBCT with a longitudinal configuration of sources providing DE imaging in a single gantry rotation. The findings support the development of DE imaging capability for CBCT of the extremities in areas conventionally in the domain of MRI.

Investigating Extreme Lifestyles through Mangrove Transcriptomics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dassanayake, Maheshi

2009-01-01

Mangroves represent phylogenetically diverse taxa in tropical coastal terrestrial habitats. They are extremophiles, evolutionarily adapted to tolerate flooding, anoxia, high temperatures, wind, and high and extremely variable salt conditions in typically resource-poor environments. The genetic basis for these adaptations is, however, virtually…

Longitudinal assessment of excessive daytime sleepiness in early Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Amara, Amy W; Chahine, Lama M; Caspell-Garcia, Chelsea; Long, Jeffrey D; Coffey, Christopher; Högl, Birgit; Videnovic, Aleksandar; Iranzo, Alex; Mayer, Geert; Foldvary-Schaefer, Nancy; Postuma, Ron; Oertel, Wolfgang; Lasch, Shirley; Marek, Ken; Simuni, Tanya

2017-08-01

Excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) is common and disabling in Parkinson's disease (PD). Predictors of EDS are unclear, and data on biological correlates of EDS in PD are limited. We investigated clinical, imaging and biological variables associated with longitudinal changes in sleepiness in early PD. The Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative is a prospective cohort study evaluating progression markers in participants with PD who are unmedicated at baseline (n=423) and healthy controls (HC; n=196). EDS was measured with the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS). Clinical, biological and imaging variables were assessed for associations with EDS for up to 3 years. A machine learning approach (random survival forests) was used to investigate baseline predictors of incident EDS. ESS increased in PD from baseline to year 3 (mean±SD 5.8±3.5 to 7.55±4.6, p<0.0001), with no change in HC. Longitudinally, EDS in PD was associated with non-tremor dominant phenotype, autonomic dysfunction, depression, anxiety and probable behaviour disorder, but not cognitive dysfunction or motor severity. Dopaminergic therapy was associated with EDS at years 2 and 3, as dose increased. EDS was also associated with presynaptic dopaminergic dysfunction, whereas biofluid markers at year 1 showed no significant associations with EDS. A predictive index for EDS was generated, which included seven baseline characteristics, including non-motor symptoms and cerebrospinal fluid phosphorylated-tau/total-tau ratio. In early PD, EDS increases significantly over time and is associated with several clinical variables. The influence of dopaminergic therapy on EDS is dose dependent. Further longitudinal analyses will better characterise associations with imaging and biomarkers. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Variations/Changes in Daily Precipitation Extremes Derived from Satellite-Based Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, G.; Adler, R. F.

2017-12-01

Interannual/decadal-scale variations/changes in daily precipitation extremes are investigated by means of satellite-based high-spatiotemporal resolution precipitation products, including TRMM-TMPA, PERSIANN-CDR-Daily, GPCP 1DD, etc. Extreme precipitation indices at grids are first defined, including the maximum daily precipitation amount (Rx1day), the simple precipitation intensity index (SDII), the conditional (Rcond) daily precipitation rate (Pr>0 mm day-1), and monthly frequencies of rainy (FOCc) and wet (FOCw) days. Other two precipitation intensity indices, i.e., mean daily precipitation rates for Pr ≥10 mm day-1 (Pr10II) and for Pr ≥ 20 mm day-1 (Pr20II), are also constructed. Consistency analyses of daily extreme indices among these data sets are then performed by comparing corresponding averages over large domains such as tropical (30oN-30oS) land, ocean, land+ocean, for their common period (post-1997). This can provide a preliminary uncertainty analysis of these data sets in describing daily extreme precipitation events. Discrepancies can readily be found among these products regarding the magnitudes of area-averaged extreme indices. However, generally consistent temporal variations can be found among the indices derived from different satellite products. Interannual variability in daily precipitation extremes are then examined and compared at grids by exploring their relations with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Linear correlation and composite analyses are used to examine the impact of ENSO on these extreme indices at grids and over large domains during the post-1997 period. Decadal-scale variability/change in daily extreme events is further examined by using the PERSIANN-CDR-Daily that can cover the entire post-1983 period, based on its general consistency with other two products during the post-1979 period. We specifically focus on exploring and discriminating the effects of decadal-scale internal variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and anthropogenic forcings including the greenhouse-gases (GHG) related warming. Comparisons are also made over global land with the results from two gridded daily rain-gauge products, GPCC Full-record daily (1988-2013) and NOAA/CPC Unified daily (1979-present).

Video analysis of the flight of a model aircraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarantino, Giovanni; Fazio, Claudio

2011-11-01

A video-analysis software tool has been employed in order to measure the steady-state values of the kinematics variables describing the longitudinal behaviour of a radio-controlled model aircraft during take-off, climbing and gliding. These experimental results have been compared with the theoretical steady-state configurations predicted by the phugoid model for longitudinal flight. A comparison with the parameters and performance of the full-size aircraft has also been outlined.

Water vapor variability and comparisons in the subtropical Pacific from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) Driftsonde, Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC), and reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Junhong; Zhang, Liangying; Lin, Po-Hsiung; Bradford, Mark; Cole, Harold; Fox, Jack; Hock, Terry; Lauritsen, Dean; Loehrer, Scot; Martin, Charlie; Vanandel, Joseph; Weng, Chun-Hsiung; Young, Kathryn

2010-11-01

During the THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC), from 1 August to 30 September 2008, ˜1900 high-quality, high vertical resolution soundings were collected over the Pacific Ocean. These include dropsondes deployed from four aircrafts and zero-pressure balloons in the stratosphere (NCAR's Driftsonde system). The water vapor probability distribution and spatial variability in the northern subtropical Pacific (14°-20°N, 140°E-155°W) are studied using Driftsonde and COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) data and four global reanalysis products. Driftsonde data analysis shows distinct differences of relative humidity (RH) distributions in the free troposphere between the Eastern and Western Pacific (EP and WP, defined as east and west of 180°, respectively), very dry with a single peak of ˜1% RH in the EP and bi-modal distributions in the WP with one peak near ice saturation and one varying with altitude. The frequent occurrences of extreme dry air are found in the driftsonde data with 59% and 19% of RHs less than or equal to 5% and at 1% at 500 hPa in the EP, respectively. RH with respect to ice in the free troposphere exhibits considerable longitudinal variations, very low (<20%) in the EP, but varying from 20% to 100% in the WP. Inter-comparisons of Driftsonde, COSMIC and reanalysis data show generally good agreement among the Driftsonde, COSMIC, ECMWF Reanalysis-Interim (ERA-Interim) and Japanese Reanalysis (JRA) below 200 hPa. The ERA-Interim and JRA are approved to be successful on describing RH frequency distributions and spatial variations in the region. The comparisons also reveal problems in Driftsonde, two National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses and COSMIC data. The moist layer at 200-100 hPa in the WP shown in the ERA-Interim, JRA and COSMIC is missing in Driftsonde data. Major problems are found in the RH means and variability over the study region for both NCEP reanalyses. Although the higher-moisture layer at 200-100 hPa in the WP in the COSMIC data agrees well with the ERA-Interim and JRA, it is primarily attributed to the first guess of the 1-Dimensional (1D) variational analysis used in the COSMIC retrieval rather than the refractivity measurements. The limited soundings (total 268) of Driftsonde data are capable of portraying RH probability distributions and longitudinal variability. This implies that Driftsonde system has the potential to become a valuable operational system for upper air observations over the ocean.

Exploring changes in the spatial distribution of stream baseflow generation during a seasonal recession

USGS Publications Warehouse

Payn, R.A.; Gooseff, M.N.; McGlynn, B.L.; Bencala, K.E.; Wondzell, S.M.

2012-01-01

Relating watershed structure to streamflow generation is a primary focus of hydrology. However, comparisons of longitudinal variability in stream discharge with adjacent valley structure have been rare, resulting in poor understanding of the distribution of the hydrologic mechanisms that cause variability in streamflow generation along valleys. This study explores detailed surveys of stream base flow across a gauged, 23 km2 mountain watershed. Research objectives were (1) to relate spatial variability in base flow to fundamental elements of watershed structure, primarily topographic contributing area, and (2) to assess temporal changes in the spatial patterns of those relationships during a seasonal base flow recession. We analyzed spatiotemporal variability in base flow using (1) summer hydrographs at the study watershed outlet and 5 subwatershed outlets and (2) longitudinal series of discharge measurements every ~100 m along the streams of the 3 largest subwatersheds (1200 to 2600 m in valley length), repeated 2 to 3 times during base flow recession. Reaches within valley segments of 300 to 1200 m in length tended to demonstrate similar streamflow generation characteristics. Locations of transitions between these segments were consistent throughout the recession, and tended to be collocated with abrupt longitudinal transitions in valley slope or hillslope-riparian characteristics. Both within and among subwatersheds, correlation between the spatial distributions of streamflow and topographic contributing area decreased during the recession, suggesting a general decrease in the influence of topography on stream base flow contributions. As topographic controls on base flow evidently decreased, multiple aspects of subsurface structure were likely to have gained influence.

Prevalence of upper extremity symptoms and disorders among dental and dental hygiene students.

PubMed

Werner, Robert A; Franzblau, Alfred; Gell, Nancy; Hamann, Curt; Rodgers, Pamela A; Caruso, Timothy J; Perry, Frank; Lamb, Courtney; Beaver, Shirley; Hinkamp, David; Eklund, Kathy; Klausner, Christine P

2005-02-01

Upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders are common among dental professionals. The natural history of these disorders is not well-understood. These disorders are more common in older workers, but the prevalence among younger workers has not been well-studied. The objective of this study was to determine if dental/dental hygiene students had a similar prevalence of upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders compared to age-matched clerical workers. We hypothesize students will have a lower prevalence of upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders compared to clerical workers. This was a cross-sectional design. Dental and dental hygiene students from three schools were compared to clerical workers from three locations (an insurance company and two data processing plants). There were 343 dental and dental hygiene students and 164 age-matched clerical workers. Regional discomfort was the primary outcome. The secondary health outcomes were diagnoses of carpal tunnel syndrome and upper extremity tendinitis. Clerical workers had a higher prevalence of hand symptoms (62 percent vs. 20 percent), elbow symptoms (34 percent vs. 6 percent) and shoulder/neck symptoms (48 percent vs. 16 percent) and a higher prevalence of carpal tunnel syndrome (2.5 percent vs. .6 percent) and upper extremity tendinitis (12 percent vs. 5 percent). The clerical workers were more obese, smoked more, exercised less frequently, and had lower educational levels and less control of their work environment. Dental and dental hygiene students have a very low prevalence of upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders. A longitudinal study is necessary to evaluate ergonomic and personal risk factors.

Transverse versus Longitudinal Incisions for Femoral Artery Exposure in Treating Patients with Peripheral Vascular Disease.

PubMed

Parikh, Punam P; Rubio, Gustavo A; Patel, Kunal; Gupta, Kapil; Jones, Keith; Rey, Jorge; Robinson, Handel

2018-02-01

This study evaluates differences in wound complication rate when transverse versus longitudinal incision is utilized to expose femoral vessels in managing patients with peripheral vascular disease. A retrospective review from 2013 to 2015 was conducted of 150 patients undergoing 156 lower extremity revascularizations with femoral artery exposure through a groin incision. Patients were stratified into 2 groups, transverse versus longitudinal groin incision. Data were reviewed for 3 surgeons that utilize either transverse or longitudinal groin incision in patients undergoing common or iliofemoral endarterectomies, or where femoral artery was used as inflow and/or outflow vessel for limb revascularization. Each group had a comparative outcomes analysis based on incision type. The primary outcome was wound complication, defined as any wound infection, lymphocele, hematoma, dehiscence, pseudoaneurysm, or necrosis. Other outcomes studied included unplanned return to operating room for wound complication, wound vacuum therapy, and soft-tissue flap closure. Data were analyzed using 2-tailed chi-squared test and Student's t-test. Patients in the transverse (n = 85 cases) versus longitudinal (n = 71 cases) cohorts were similar in relation to demographics and comorbidities. Overall mean follow-up was 220 days. Patients with a transverse as compared to longitudinal incision had a significantly lower overall wound complication rate, 7% vs. 42%, respectively (P < 0.001). Furthermore, transverse incisions were associated with lower incidence of unplanned return to the operating room to manage wound complications than patients with a longitudinal incision (5% vs. 23%, respectively; P < 0.001). Transverse versus longitudinal incisions were also associated with significantly lower need for wound vacuum therapy (6% vs. 15%, respectively; P < 0.05) and muscle flap closure (0% vs. 13%, respectively; P < 0.001) for wound complications. Transverse groin incisions for femoral artery exposure may offer a lower risk of wound complications for open procedures as compared to a longitudinal incision. While longitudinal incisions may have higher wound complication rates, incisional approach is contingent on anatomical circumstance and treated disease pattern. Patients should undergo appropriate preoperative counseling regarding wound healing in preparation for limb revascularization. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Participation refusal by probands in an epidemiologic long-term study--sociodemographic, clinical and psychometric findings].

PubMed

Franz, M; Schepank, H; Wirth, T; Schellberg, D

1992-11-01

Usually little is known about probands who participated in an epidemiological longitudinal field survey but refused participation in follow-up investigations. For reasons of data protection and on account of the fact that investigative instruments used in longterm field surveys or panel studies are more focused on well defined issues (opinions, attitudes, assessment of behaviors) and less on personality variables, differentiated statements on probands who explicitly refused cooperation can hardly be made. In our epidemiological longitudinal field study on prevalence and course of psychogenic disorders we have a different situation. Within the limits of our study we had the unique opportunity to gain far-reaching information on probands who refused to participate in preceding investigations in regard to sociodemographic, psychometric and clinical variables. The clientele of refusers we present in our paper mainly comprises elderly, married, rather obsessive-compulsive structured, lower-class females. According to our data interactive aspects are equally responsible for reduced cooperativeness. The significance of our findings for the planning and carrying out of epidemiological longitudinal field surveys is discussed.

Longitudinal-control design approach for high-angle-of-attack aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ostroff, Aaron J.; Proffitt, Melissa S.

1993-01-01

This paper describes a control synthesis methodology that emphasizes a variable-gain output feedback technique that is applied to the longitudinal channel of a high-angle-of-attack aircraft. The aircraft is a modified F/A-18 aircraft with thrust-vectored controls. The flight regime covers a range up to a Mach number of 0.7; an altitude range from 15,000 to 35,000 ft; and an angle-of-attack (alpha) range up to 70 deg, which is deep into the poststall region. A brief overview is given of the variable-gain mathematical formulation as well as a description of the discrete control structure used for the feedback controller. This paper also presents an approximate design procedure with relationships for the optimal weights for the selected feedback control structure. These weights are selected to meet control design guidelines for high-alpha flight controls. Those guidelines that apply to the longitudinal-control design are also summarized. A unique approach is presented for the feed-forward command generator to obtain smooth transitions between load factor and alpha commands. Finally, representative linear analysis results and nonlinear batch simulation results are provided.

Extreme learning machines: a new approach for modeling dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration with and without water quality variables as predictors.

PubMed

Heddam, Salim; Kisi, Ozgur

2017-07-01

In this paper, several extreme learning machine (ELM) models, including standard extreme learning machine with sigmoid activation function (S-ELM), extreme learning machine with radial basis activation function (R-ELM), online sequential extreme learning machine (OS-ELM), and optimally pruned extreme learning machine (OP-ELM), are newly applied for predicting dissolved oxygen concentration with and without water quality variables as predictors. Firstly, using data from eight United States Geological Survey (USGS) stations located in different rivers basins, USA, the S-ELM, R-ELM, OS-ELM, and OP-ELM were compared against the measured dissolved oxygen (DO) using four water quality variables, water temperature, specific conductance, turbidity, and pH, as predictors. For each station, we used data measured at an hourly time step for a period of 4 years. The dataset was divided into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We selected several combinations of the water quality variables as inputs for each ELM model and six different scenarios were compared. Secondly, an attempt was made to predict DO concentration without water quality variables. To achieve this goal, we used the year numbers, 2008, 2009, etc., month numbers from (1) to (12), day numbers from (1) to (31) and hour numbers from (00:00) to (24:00) as predictors. Thirdly, the best ELM models were trained using validation dataset and tested with the training dataset. The performances of the four ELM models were evaluated using four statistical indices: the coefficient of correlation (R), the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the root mean squared error (RMSE), and the mean absolute error (MAE). Results obtained from the eight stations indicated that: (i) the best results were obtained by the S-ELM, R-ELM, OS-ELM, and OP-ELM models having four water quality variables as predictors; (ii) out of eight stations, the OP-ELM performed better than the other three ELM models at seven stations while the R-ELM performed the best at one station. The OS-ELM models performed the worst and provided the lowest accuracy; (iii) for predicting DO without water quality variables, the R-ELM performed the best at seven stations followed by the S-ELM in the second place and the OP-ELM performed the worst with low accuracy; (iv) for the final application where training ELM models with validation dataset and testing with training dataset, the OP-ELM provided the best accuracy using water quality variables and the R-ELM performed the best at all eight stations without water quality variables. Fourthly, and finally, we compared the results obtained from different ELM models with those obtained using multiple linear regression (MLR) and multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN). Results obtained using MLPNN and MLR models reveal that: (i) using water quality variables as predictors, the MLR performed the worst and provided the lowest accuracy in all stations; (ii) MLPNN was ranked in the second place at two stations, in the third place at four stations, and finally, in the fourth place at two stations, (iii) for predicting DO without water quality variables, MLPNN is ranked in the second place at five stations, and ranked in the third, fourth, and fifth places in the remaining three stations, while MLR was ranked in the last place with very low accuracy at all stations. Overall, the results suggest that the ELM is more effective than the MLPNN and MLR for modelling DO concentration in river ecosystems.

Evaluation of the DSM-5 Severity Indicator for Bulimia Nervosa

PubMed Central

Grilo, Carlos M.; Ivezaj, Valentina; White, Marney A.

2015-01-01

This study examined the DSM-5 severity criterion for bulimia nervosa (BN) based on the frequency of inappropriate weight compensatory behaviors. 199 community volunteers classified with BN were categorized using DSM-5 severity levels and compared on demographic and clinical variables. 77 (39%) participants were categorized as mild, 68 (34%) as moderate, 32 (16%) as severe, and 22 (11%) as extreme. The severity groups did not differ significantly in demographic variables or body mass index. Shape and Weight concerns did not differ significantly across severity groups. Binge eating differed with the extreme group having higher frequency than the severe, moderate, and mild groups, which did not differ from each other. Restraint differed with the extreme group having significantly higher levels than the mild group. Eating concerns differed with the extreme group having higher levels than moderate and mild groups. Depression differed with the extreme group having higher levels than severe, moderate, and mild groups, which did not differ from each other. Findings from this non-clinical group provide new, albeit modest, support for DSM-5 severity rating for BN based on frequency of inappropriate weight compensatory behaviors. Statistical findings indicate that differences in collateral clinical variables associated with the DSM-5 severity ratings reflect small effect sizes. Further research is needed with treatment-seeking patient groups with BN to establish the validity of the DSM-5 severity specifier and should include broader clinical and functional validators. PMID:25744910

Evaluation of the DSM-5 severity indicator for bulimia nervosa.

PubMed

Grilo, Carlos M; Ivezaj, Valentina; White, Marney A

2015-04-01

This study examined the DSM-5 severity criterion for bulimia nervosa (BN) based on the frequency of inappropriate weight compensatory behaviors. 199 community volunteers classified with BN were categorized using DSM-5 severity levels and compared on demographic and clinical variables. 77 (39%) participants were categorized as mild, 68 (34%) as moderate, 32 (16%) as severe, and 22 (11%) as extreme. The severity groups did not differ significantly in demographic variables or body mass index. Shape and Weight concerns did not differ significantly across severity groups. Binge eating differed with the extreme group having significantly higher frequency than the severe, moderate, and mild groups, which did not differ from each other. Restraint differed with the extreme group having significantly higher levels than the mild group. Eating concerns differed with the extreme group having significantly higher levels than moderate and mild groups. Depression differed with the extreme group having significantly higher levels than severe, moderate, and mild groups, which did not differ from each other. Findings from this non-clinical group provide new, albeit modest, support for DSM-5 severity rating for BN based on frequency of inappropriate weight compensatory behaviors. Statistical findings indicate that differences in collateral clinical variables associated with the DSM-5 severity ratings reflect small effect sizes. Further research is needed with treatment-seeking patient groups with BN to establish the validity of the DSM-5 severity specifier and should include broader clinical and functional validators. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interannual hydroclimatic variability and the 2009-2011 extreme ENSO phases in Colombia: from Andean glaciers to Caribbean lowlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedoya-Soto, Juan Mauricio; Poveda, Germán; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Vélez-Upegui, Jorge Julián

2018-03-01

During 2009-2011, Colombia experienced extreme hydroclimatic events associated with the extreme phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, we study the dynamics of diverse land-atmosphere phenomena involved in such anomalous events at continental, regional, and local scales. Standardized anomalies of precipitation, 2-m temperature, total column water (TCW), volumetric soil water (VSW), temperature at 925 hPa, surface sensible heat (SSH), latent heat (SLH), evaporation (EVP), and liquid water equivalent thickness (LWET) are analyzed to assess atmosphere-land controls and relationships over tropical South America (TropSA) during 1986-2013 (long term) and 2009-2011 (ENSO extreme phases). An assessment of the interannual covariability between precipitation and 2-m temperature is performed using singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify the dominant spatiotemporal modes of hydroclimatic variability over the region's largest river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Tocantins, Magdalena-Cauca, and Essequibo). ENSO, its evolution in time, and strong and consistent spatial structures emerge as the dominant mode of variability. In situ anomalies during both extreme phases of ENSO 2009-2011 over the Magdalena-Cauca River basins are linked at the continental scale. The ENSO-driven hydroclimatic effects extend from the diurnal cycle to interannual timescales, as reflected in temperature data from tropical glaciers and the rain-snow boundary in the highest peaks of the Central Andes of Colombia to river levels along the Caribbean lowlands of the Magdalena-Cauca River basin.

Muscle Strength and Changes in Physical Function in Women With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

PubMed

Andrews, James S; Trupin, Laura; Schmajuk, Gabriela; Barton, Jennifer; Margaretten, Mary; Yazdany, Jinoos; Yelin, Edward H; Katz, Patricia P

2015-08-01

Cross-sectional studies have observed that muscle weakness is associated with worse physical function among women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The present study examines whether reduced upper and lower extremity muscle strength predict declines in function over time among adult women with SLE. One hundred forty-six women from a longitudinal SLE cohort participated in the study. All measures were collected during in-person research visits approximately 2 years apart. Upper extremity muscle strength was assessed by grip strength. Lower extremity muscle strength was assessed by peak knee torque of extension and flexion. Physical function was assessed using the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB). Regression analyses modeled associations of baseline upper and lower extremity muscle strength with followup SPPB scores controlling for baseline SPPB, age, SLE duration, SLE disease activity (Systemic Lupus Activity Questionnaire), physical activity level, prednisone use, body composition, and depression. Secondary analyses tested whether associations of baseline muscle strength with followup in SPPB scores differed between intervals of varying baseline muscle strength. Lower extremity muscle strength strongly predicted changes over 2 years in physical function even when controlling for covariates. The association of reduced lower extremity muscle strength with reduced physical function in the future was greatest among the weakest women. Reduced lower extremity muscle strength predicted clinically significant declines in physical function, especially among the weakest women. Future studies should test whether therapies that promote preservation of lower extremity muscle strength may prevent declines in function among women with SLE. © 2015, American College of Rheumatology.

Dimensional Changes of Tracheids during Drying of Radiata Pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) Compression Woods: A Study Using Variable-Pressure Scanning Electron Microscopy (VP-SEM)

PubMed Central

Zhang, Miao; Smith, Bronwen G.; McArdle, Brian H.; Chavan, Ramesh R.; James, Bryony J.

2018-01-01

Variable-pressure scanning electron microscopy was used to investigate the dimensional changes in longitudinal, tangential and radial directions, on wetting and drying, of tracheids of opposite wood (OW) and three grades of compression woods (CWs), including severe CW (SCW) and two grades of mild compression wood (MCW) (MCW1 and MCW2) in corewood of radiata pine (Pinus radiata) saplings. The CW was formed on the underside and OW on the upper side of slightly tilted stems. In the longitudinal direction, the shrinkage of SCW tracheids was ~300% greater than that of OW tracheids, with the shrinkage of the MCW1 and MCW2 tracheids being intermediate. Longitudinal swelling was also investigated and hysteresis was demonstrated for the tracheids of all corewood types, with the extent of hysteresis increasing with CW severity. A statistical association was found between longitudinal shrinkage and the content of lignin and galactosyl residues in the cell-wall matrix. The galactosyl residues are present mostly as (1→4)-β-galactans, which are known to have a high capacity for binding water and swell on hydration. The small proportions of (1→3)-β-glucans in the CWs have similar properties. These polysaccharides may play a functional role in the longitudinal shrinking and swelling of CW tracheids. Tangential shrinkage of tracheids was greater than radial shrinkage but both were greatest for OW and least for SCW, with the MCW1 and MCW2 being intermediate. PMID:29495536

A Variable-Selection Heuristic for K-Means Clustering.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brusco, Michael J.; Cradit, J. Dennis

2001-01-01

Presents a variable selection heuristic for nonhierarchical (K-means) cluster analysis based on the adjusted Rand index for measuring cluster recovery. Subjected the heuristic to Monte Carlo testing across more than 2,200 datasets. Results indicate that the heuristic is extremely effective at eliminating masking variables. (SLD)

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

PubMed

Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

2001-05-01

Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

Object exploration in extremely preterm infants between 6 and 9 months and relation to cognitive and language development at 24 months.

PubMed

Zuccarini, Mariagrazia; Guarini, Annalisa; Savini, Silvia; Iverson, Jana M; Aureli, Tiziana; Alessandroni, Rosina; Faldella, Giacomo; Sansavini, Alessandra

2017-09-01

Although early object exploration is considered a key ability for subsequent achievements, very few studies have analyzed its development in extremely low gestational age infants (ELGA- GA <28 weeks), whose early motor skills are delayed. Moreover, no studies have examined its developmental relationship with cognitive and language skills. The present study examined developmental change in Motor Object Exploration (MOE) and different types of MOE (Holding, Oral, Manual and Manual Rhythmic Exploration) in 20 ELGA and 20 full term (FT) infants observed during mother-infant play interaction at 6 and 9 months. It also explored whether specific types of MOE were longitudinally related to 24-month language and cognitive abilities (GMDS-R scores). ELGA infants increased MOE duration from 6 to 9 months, eliminating the initial difference with FT infants. In addition, ELGA infants showed a different pattern of Oral Exploration, that did not increase at 6 months and decrease at 9 months. Oral and Manual Exploration durations at 6 months were longitudinally related to 24-month GMDS-R language and cognitive performance scores respectively. We discuss the relevance of assessing early exploratory abilities in ELGA infants in order to implement customized intervention programs for supporting the development of these skills. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Studying Weather and Climate Extremes in a Non-stationary Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Z.

2010-12-01

The study of weather and climate extremes often uses the theory of extreme values. Such a detection method has a major problem: to obtain the probability distribution of extremes, one has to implicitly assume the Earth’s climate is stationary over a long period within which the climatology is defined. While such detection makes some sense in a purely statistical view of stationary processes, it can lead to misleading statistical properties of weather and climate extremes caused by long term climate variability and change, and may also cause enormous difficulty in attributing and predicting these extremes. To alleviate this problem, here we report a novel non-stationary framework for studying weather and climate extremes in a non-stationary framework. In this new framework, the weather and climate extremes will be defined as timescale-dependent quantities derived from the anomalies with respect to non-stationary climatologies of different timescales. With this non-stationary framework, the non-stationary and nonlinear nature of climate system will be taken into account; and the attribution and the prediction of weather and climate extremes can then be separated into 1) the change of the statistical properties of the weather and climate extremes themselves and 2) the background climate variability and change. The new non-stationary framework will use the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, which is a recent major improvement of the Hilbert-Huang Transform for time-frequency analysis. Using this tool, we will adaptively decompose various weather and climate data from observation and climate models in terms of the components of the various natural timescales contained in the data. With such decompositions, the non-stationary statistical properties (both spatial and temporal) of weather and climate anomalies and of their corresponding climatologies will be analyzed and documented.

Intra-seasonal Characteristics of Wintertime Extreme Cold Events over South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Taewon; Jeong, Jeehoon; Choi, Jahyun

2017-04-01

The present study reveals the changes in the characteristics of extreme cold events over South Korea for boreal winter (November to March) in terms of the intra-seasonal variability of frequency, duration, and atmospheric circulation pattern. Influences of large-scale variabilities such as the Siberian High activity, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on extreme cold events are also investigated. In the early and the late of the winter during November and March, the upper-tropospheric wave-train for a life-cycle of the extreme cold events tends to pass quickly over East Asia. In addition, compared with the other months, the intensity of the Siberian High is weaker and the occurrences of strong negative AO are less frequent. It lead to events with weak amplitude and short duration. On the other hand, the amplified Siberian High and the strong negative AO occur more frequently in the mid of the winter from December to February. The extreme cold events are mainly characterized by a well-organized anticyclonic blocking around the Ural Mountain and the Subarctic. These large-scale circulation makes the extreme cold events for the midwinter last long with strong amplitude. The MJO phases 2-3 which provide a suitable condition for the amplification of extreme cold events occur frequently for November to January when the frequencies are more than twice those for February and March. While the extreme cold events during March have the least frequency, the weakest amplitude, and the shortest duration due to weak impacts of the abovementioned factors, the strong activities of the factors for January force the extreme cold events to be the most frequent, the strongest, and the longest among the boreal winter. Keywords extreme cold event, wave-train, blocking, Siberian High, AO, MJO

High-capacity high-speed recording

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamberdino, A. A.

1981-06-01

Continuing advances in wideband communications and information handling are leading to extremely large volume digital data systems for which conventional data storage techniques are becoming inadequate. The paper presents an assessment of alternative recording technologies for the extremely wideband, high capacity storage and retrieval systems currently under development. Attention is given to longitudinal and rotary head high density magnetic recording, laser holography in human readable/machine readable devices and a wideband recorder, digital optical disks, and spot recording in microfiche formats. The electro-optical technologies considered are noted to be capable of providing data bandwidths up to 1000 megabits/sec and total data storage capacities in the 10 to the 11th to 10 to the 12th bit range, an order of magnitude improvement over conventional technologies.

Spatial and temporal analysis of the total electron content over China during 2011-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Jianchang; Zhao, Biqiang; Xiong, Bo; Wan, Weixing

2016-06-01

In the present work we investigate variations of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) with empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the four-year TEC data are derived from ∼250 GPS observations of the crustal movement observation network of China (CMONOC) over East Asian area (30-55°N, 70-140°E) during the period from 2011, January to 2014, December. The first two EOF components together account for ∼93.78% of total variance of the original TEC data set, and it is found that the first EOF component represents a spatial variability of semi-annual variation and the second EOF component exhibits pronounced east-west longitudinal difference with respect to zero valued geomagnetic declination line. In addition, climatology of the vertical plasma drift velocity vdz induced by HWM zonal wind field (∼300 km) are studied in the paper. Results shows vdz displays significant east-west longitudinal difference at 10:00 LT and 20:00 LT, and its daytime temporal variation is consistent with the second EOF principal component, which suggests that the east-west longitudinal variability is partly caused by the thermospheric zonal wind and geomagnetic declination. It is expected that with this dense GPS network, local ionospheric variability can be described more accurately and a more realistic ionospheric model can be constructed and used for the satellite navigation and radio propagation.

Accounting for dropout reason in longitudinal studies with nonignorable dropout.

PubMed

Moore, Camille M; MaWhinney, Samantha; Forster, Jeri E; Carlson, Nichole E; Allshouse, Amanda; Wang, Xinshuo; Routy, Jean-Pierre; Conway, Brian; Connick, Elizabeth

2017-08-01

Dropout is a common problem in longitudinal cohort studies and clinical trials, often raising concerns of nonignorable dropout. Selection, frailty, and mixture models have been proposed to account for potentially nonignorable missingness by relating the longitudinal outcome to time of dropout. In addition, many longitudinal studies encounter multiple types of missing data or reasons for dropout, such as loss to follow-up, disease progression, treatment modifications and death. When clinically distinct dropout reasons are present, it may be preferable to control for both dropout reason and time to gain additional clinical insights. This may be especially interesting when the dropout reason and dropout times differ by the primary exposure variable. We extend a semi-parametric varying-coefficient method for nonignorable dropout to accommodate dropout reason. We apply our method to untreated HIV-infected subjects recruited to the Acute Infection and Early Disease Research Program HIV cohort and compare longitudinal CD4 + T cell count in injection drug users to nonusers with two dropout reasons: anti-retroviral treatment initiation and loss to follow-up.

Heterogeneous Sensitivity of Tropical Precipitation Extremes during Growth and Mature Phases of Atmospheric Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parhi, P.; Giannini, A.; Lall, U.; Gentine, P.

2016-12-01

Assessing and managing risks posed by climate variability and change is challenging in the tropics, from both a socio-economic and a scientific perspective. Most of the vulnerable countries with a limited climate adaptation capability are in the tropics. However, climate projections, particularly of extreme precipitation, are highly uncertain there. The CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project - Phase 5) inter-model range of extreme precipitation sensitivity to the global temperature under climate change is much larger in the tropics as compared to the extra-tropics. It ranges from nearly 0% to greater than 30% across models (O'Gorman 2012). The uncertainty is also large in historical gauge or satellite based observational records. These large uncertainties in the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes highlight the need to better understand how tropical precipitation extremes respond to warming. We hypothesize that one of the factors explaining the large uncertainty is due to differing sensitivities during different phases of warming. We consider the `growth' and `mature' phases of warming under climate variability case- typically associated with an El Niño event. In the remote tropics (away from tropical Pacific Ocean), the response of the precipitation extremes during the two phases can be through different pathways: i) a direct and fast changing radiative forcing in an atmospheric column, acting top-down due to the tropospheric warming, and/or ii) an indirect effect via changes in surface temperatures, acting bottom-up through surface water and energy fluxes. We also speculate that the insights gained here might be useful in interpreting the large sensitivity under climate change scenarios, since the physical mechanisms during the two warming phases under climate variability case, have some correspondence with an increasing and stabilized green house gas emission scenarios.

Climate change. Six centuries of variability and extremes in a coupled marine-terrestrial ecosystem.

PubMed

Black, Bryan A; Sydeman, William J; Frank, David C; Griffin, Daniel; Stahle, David W; García-Reyes, Marisol; Rykaczewski, Ryan R; Bograd, Steven J; Peterson, William T

2014-09-19

Reported trends in the mean and variability of coastal upwelling in eastern boundary currents have raised concerns about the future of these highly productive and biodiverse marine ecosystems. However, the instrumental records on which these estimates are based are insufficiently long to determine whether such trends exceed preindustrial limits. In the California Current, a 576-year reconstruction of climate variables associated with winter upwelling indicates that variability increased over the latter 20th century to levels equaled only twice during the past 600 years. This modern trend in variance may be unique, because it appears to be driven by an unprecedented succession of extreme, downwelling-favorable, winter climate conditions that profoundly reduce productivity for marine predators of commercial and conservation interest. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Birthweight-discordance and differences in early parenting relate to monozygotic twin differences in behaviour problems and academic achievement at age 7.

PubMed

Asbury, Kathryn; Dunn, Judith F; Plomin, Robert

2006-03-01

This longitudinal monozygotic (MZ) twin differences study explored associations between birthweight and early family environment and teacher-rated behaviour problems and academic achievement at age 7. MZ differences in anxiety, hyperactivity, conduct problems, peer problems and academic achievement correlated significantly with MZ differences in birthweight and early family environment, showing effect sizes of up to 2%. As predicted by earlier research, associations increased at the extremes of discordance, even in a longitudinal, cross-rater design, with effect sizes reaching as high as 12%. As with previous research some of these non-shared environmental (NSE) relationships appeared to operate partly as a function of SES, family chaos and maternal depression. Higher-risk families generally showed stronger negative associations.

A Measurement of the Average Longitudinal Development Profile of Cosmic Ray Air Showers from 1017.5eV to 1020eV by HiRes-II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, G.

Ultra High Energy Cosmic Rays (UHECRs) have an energy many times greater than that of particles accelerated in colliders. The Extended Air Showers (EAS) resulting from their interaction in the atmosphere give us the opportunity to study not only Cosmic Rays but also these extremely energetic cascades. A method to calculate the Average Longitudinal Shower profile has been applied to the High Resolution Fly's Eye Detector (HiRes) data. A complete detector simulation was used to throw CORSIKA (QGSJET) showers which are then analyzed using the same technique. The main features of the average showers are compared to the Monte Carlo as a function of energy. Systematic errors in the reconstruction of the profile are considered.

Analytical modeling of transport aircraft crash scenarios to obtain floor pulses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wittlin, G.; Lackey, D.

1983-01-01

The KRAS program was used to analyze transport aircraft candidate crash scenarios. Aircraft floor pulses and seat/occupant responses are presented. Results show that: (1) longitudinal only pulses can be represented by equivalent step inputs and/or static requirements; (2) the L1649 crash test floor longitudinal pulse for the aft direction (forward inertia) is less than 9g static or an equivalent 5g pulse; aft inertia accelerations are extremely small ((ch76) 3g) for representative crash scenarios; (3) a viable procedure to relate crash scenario floor pulses to standard laboratory dynamic and static test data using state of the art analysis and test procedures was demonstrated; and (4) floor pulse magnitudes are expected to be lower for wide body aircraft than for smaller narrow body aircraft.

Predictors of Longitudinal Growth in Inhibitory Control in Early Childhood

PubMed Central

Moilanen, Kristin L.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Dishion, Thomas J.; Gardner, Frances; Wilson, Melvin

2009-01-01

In the current study, we examined latent growth in 731 young children’s inhibitory control from ages 2 to 4, and whether demographic characteristics or parenting behaviors were related to initial levels and growth in inhibitory control. As part of an ongoing longitudinal evaluation of the Family Check-Up (FCU), children’s inhibitory control was assessed yearly at ages 2, 3, and 4. Inhibitory control was initially low and increased linearly to age 4. High levels of harsh parenting and male gender were associated with low initial status in inhibitory control. High levels of supportive parenting were associated with faster growth. Extreme family poverty and African American ethnicity were also associated with slower growth. The results highlight parenting as a target for early interventions in contexts of high socioeconomic risk. PMID:20376201

Fetal Heart Rate and Variability: Stability and Prediction to Developmental Outcomes in Early Childhood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DiPietro, Janet A.; Bornstein, Marc H.; Hahn, Chun-Shin; Costigan, Kathleen; Achy-Brou, Aristide

2007-01-01

Stability in cardiac indicators before birth and their utility in predicting variation in postnatal development were examined. Fetal heart rate and variability were measured longitudinally from 20 through 38 weeks gestation (n = 137) and again at age 2 (n = 79). Significant within-individual stability during the prenatal period and into childhood…

Longitudinal Reliability of Self-Reported Age at Menarche in Adolescent Girls: Variability across Time and Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dorn, Lorah D.; Sontag-Padilla, Lisa M.; Pabst, Stephanie; Tissot, Abbigail; Susman, Elizabeth J.

2013-01-01

Age at menarche is critical in research and clinical settings, yet there is a dearth of studies examining its reliability in adolescents. We examined age at menarche during adolescence, specifically, (a) average method reliability across 3 years, (b) test-retest reliability between time points and methods, (c) intraindividual variability of…

Playing with Word Endings: Morphological Variation in the Learning of Russian Noun Inflections

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kempe, Vera; Brooks, Patricia J.; Mironova, Natalija; Pershukova, Angelina; Fedorova, Olga

2007-01-01

This paper documents the occurrence of form variability through diminutive "wordplay", and examines whether this variability facilitates or hinders morphology acquisition in a richly inflected language. First, in a longitudinal speech corpus of eight Russian mothers conversing with their children (1.6-3.6), and with an adult, the use of diminutive…

Mother-Child Interaction and Child Cognitive Development in Low-Income Black Children: A Longitudinal Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blumenthal, Janet B.

Sixty-two socioculturally homogeneous, low-income black mother/child pairs were tested and observed when the infants were 2, 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months of age to determine the relationship between variability in parenting attitudes, skills, and behaviors and consequent variability in children's intellectual development. As expected, the…

Psychological Variables as Correlates of Adjustment in Mothers of Children with Intellectual Disabilities: Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Relationships

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lloyd, Tracey; Hastings, R. P.

2008-01-01

Background: Existing research studies suggest that parenting a child with intellectual disabilities (ID) can be a stressful experience. However, there are few data addressing the question of how or why parents might experience considerable distress. In the present study, psychological variables (acceptance, mindfulness, avoidant coping) are…

Emotional Dynamics in the Development of Early Adolescent Psychopathology: A One-Year Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neumann, Anna; van Lier, Pol A. C.; Frijns, Tom; Meeus, Wim; Koot, Hans M.

2011-01-01

This study examined the role of the level and variability of happiness, anger, anxiety, and sadness in the development of adolescent-reported anxiety disorder symptoms, depressive symptoms, and aggressive behavior in 452 adolescents (250 male) followed from age 13 to 14. Level and between-day variability of emotions were assessed through…

Cognitive Preconditions of Early Reading and Spelling: A Latent-Variable Approach with Longitudinal Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Preßler, Anna-Lena; Könen, Tanja; Hasselhorn, Marcus; Krajewski, Kristin

2014-01-01

The aim of the present study was to empirically disentangle the interdependencies of the impact of nonverbal intelligence, working memory capacities, and phonological processing skills on early reading decoding and spelling within a latent variable approach. In a sample of 127 children, these cognitive preconditions were assessed before the onset…

A Longitudinal Analysis of Torque and its Relationship to Achievement and Educational Classification among Normal, Disturbed, and Learning-Disabled Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alberts, Fred L.; Edwards, Ron P.

1983-01-01

Examined the effect of the presence of torque (clockwise circlings with either hand on a visual-motor task) on academic achievement variables among normal, disturbed, and learning-disabled children (N=948). Results indicated no clear relationship between torque and the various academic variables. (LLL)

Resolution of Unwanted Pregnancy during Adolescence through Abortion versus Childbirth: Individual and Family Predictors and Psychological Consequences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coleman, Priscilla K.

2006-01-01

Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, various demographic, psychological, educational, and family variables were explored as predictors of pregnancy resolution. Only 2 of the 17 variables examined were significantly associated with pregnancy resolution (risk-taking and the desire to leave home). After controlling…

Geomagnetically Induced Currents: Principles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, Denny M.; Ngwira, Chigomezyo M.

2017-10-01

The geospace, or the space environment near Earth, is constantly subjected to changes in the solar wind flow generated at the Sun. The study of this environment variability is called Space Weather. Examples of effects resulting from this variability are the occurrence of powerful solar disturbances, such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The impact of CMEs on the Earth's magnetosphere very often greatly perturbs the geomagnetic field causing the occurrence of geomagnetic storms. Such extremely variable geomagnetic fields trigger geomagnetic effects measurable not only in the geospace but also in the ionosphere, upper atmosphere, and on and in the ground. For example, during extreme cases, rapidly changing geomagnetic fields generate intense geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). Intense GICs can cause dramatic effects on man-made technological systems, such as damage to high-voltage power transmission transformers leading to interruption of power supply, and/or corrosion of oil and gas pipelines. These space weather effects can in turn lead to severe economic losses. In this paper, we supply the reader with theoretical concepts related to GICs as well as their general consequences. As an example, we discuss the GIC effects on a North American power grid located in mid-latitude regions during the 13-14 March 1989 extreme geomagnetic storm. That was the most extreme storm that occurred in the space era age.

Evaluating the ClimEx Single Model large ensemble in comparison with EURO-CORDEX results of heatwave and drought indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Trentini, F.; Schmid, F. J.; Braun, M.; Frigon, A.; Leduc, M.; Martel, J. L.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

Meteorological extreme events seem to become more frequent in the present and future, and a seperation of natural climate variability and a clear climate change effect on these extreme events gains more and more interest. Since there is only one realisation of historical events, natural variability in terms of very long timeseries for a robust statistical analysis is not possible with observation data. A new single model large ensemble (SMLE), developed for the ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) is supposed to overcome this lack of data by downscaling 50 members of the CanESM2 (RCP 8.5) with the Canadian CRCM5 regional model (using the EURO-CORDEX grid specifications) for timeseries of 1950-2099 each, resulting in 7500 years of simulated climate. This allows for a better probabilistic analysis of rare and extreme events than any preceding dataset. Besides seasonal sums, several indicators concerning heatwave frequency, duration and mean temperature a well as number and maximum length of dry periods (cons. days <1mm) are calculated for the ClimEx ensemble and several EURO-CORDEX runs. This enables us to investigate the interaction between natural variability (as it appears in the CanESM2-CRCM5 members) and a climate change signal of those members for past, present and future conditions. Adding the EURO-CORDEX results to this, we can also assess the role of internal model variability (or natural variability) in climate change simulations. A first comparison shows similar magnitudes of variability of climate change signals between the ClimEx large ensemble and the CORDEX runs for some indicators, while for most indicators the spread of the SMLE is smaller than the spread of different CORDEX models.

Specific and non-specific upper extremity musculoskeletal disorder syndromes in automobile manufacturing workers.

PubMed

Gold, Judith E; d'Errico, Angelo; Katz, Jeffrey N; Gore, Rebecca; Punnett, Laura

2009-02-01

A longitudinal cohort of automobile manufacturing workers (n = 1,214) was examined for: (1) prevalence and persistence of specific upper extremity musculoskeletal disorders (UEMSDs) such as lateral epicondylitis and de Quervain's disease, and non-specific disorders (NSDs) defined in symptomatic individuals without any specific disorder, and (2) disorder prognoses based on symptom characteristics and other factors. Eight specific disorders were identified through case definitions based on upper extremity physical examinations and symptom surveys administered on three occasions over 6 years. At baseline, 41% of the cohort reported upper extremity symptoms; 18% (n = 214) of these had NSDs. In each survey, tendon-related conditions accounted for over half of the specific morbidity. Twenty-five percent had UEMSDs in multiple anatomical sites, and most with hand/wrist disorders had two or more hand/wrist UEMSDs. Persistence for all specific disorders decreased with length of follow-up. Specific UEMSDs were characterized by greater pain severity and functional impairment, and more lost work days than NSDs. Upper extremity symptoms and diagnoses vary over time. NSDs may be the early stages of conditions that will eventually become more specific. NSDs and overlapping specific UEMSDs should be taken into account in UEMSD classification. Am. J. Ind. Med. 52:124-132, 2009. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Factors that affect the postnatal increase in superior mesenteric artery blood flow velocity in very low birth weight preterm infants.

PubMed

Havranek, Thomas; Miladinovic, Branko; Wadhawan, Rajan; Carver, Jane D

2012-04-15

To identify factors related to the postnatal increase in superior mesenteric artery blood flow velocity (SMA BFV). SMA BFV was measured in 35 infants (birth weight 1047±246 g) on day of life (DOL) 1, 3, 5, 7 10 and 14. Latent curve modeling (LCM) was used to measure the longitudinal change in BFV for each subject, and the correlation between changes in BFV and baseline values. Non-parametric correlations were calculated between BFV and variables previously reported to be related to SMA BFV. There was significant variability in SMA BFV on DOL 1, a significant increase from DOL 1-14, and significant variability in the postnatal increase. Infants with higher enteral feeding volumes had greater increases, while infants receiving positive pressure ventilation or hyperalimentation had lower increases. Several clinical factors affect the postnatal increase in SMA BFV. The use of LCM is useful in longitudinal studies of very low birth weight (VLBW) infants, who are clinically and demographically heterogeneous.

Familial influences on the full range of variability in attention and activity levels during adolescence: A longitudinal twin study.

PubMed

Peng, Chun-Zi; Grant, Julia D; Heath, Andrew C; Reiersen, Angela M; Mulligan, Richard C; Anokhin, Andrey P

2016-05-01

To investigate familial influences on the full range of variability in attention and activity across adolescence, we collected maternal ratings of 339 twin pairs at ages 12, 14, and 16, and estimated the transmitted and new familial influences on attention and activity as measured by the Strengths and Weaknesses of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Symptoms and Normal Behavior Scale. Familial influences were substantial for both traits across adolescence: genetic influences accounted for 54%-73% (attention) and 31%-73% (activity) of the total variance, and shared environmental influences accounted for 0%-22% of the attention variance and 13%-57% of the activity variance. The longitudinal stability of individual differences in attention and activity was largely accounted for by familial influences transmitted from previous ages. Innovations over adolescence were also partially attributable to familial influences. Studying the full range of variability in attention and activity may facilitate our understanding of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder's etiology and intervention.

Reciprocal Relationship between Internet Addiction and Network-Related Maladaptive Cognition among Chinese College Freshmen: A Longitudinal Cross-Lagged Analysis

PubMed Central

Han, Piguo; Wang, Peng; Lin, Qingnan; Tian, Yu; Gao, Fengqiang; Chen, Yingmin

2017-01-01

This study explored the reciprocal relationship between Internet addiction (IA) and network-related maladaptive cognition (NMC) in Chinese college freshmen. A short-term longitudinal survey with a sample of 213 college freshmen was conducted in Shandong province, China. The results revealed that IA can significantly predict the generation and development of NMCs, and that when such maladaptive cognitions have been established, they can further adversely affect the extent of the students’ IA. A vicious cycle was observed between these two variables, with IA having predictive priority in its relationship with NMC. This study also determined that the relationship between these two variables was the same for both males and females; therefore, the final model we established can be extensively applied to Chinese college freshmen, regardless of gender. Understanding the reciprocal relationship between these two variables can assist in interventions in IA at the outset of students’ college life. PMID:28690575

Joint trajectories of cigarette smoking and depressive symptoms from the mid-twenties to the mid-thirties predicting generalized anxiety disorder

PubMed Central

Lee, Jung Yeon; Brook, Judith S.; Finch, Stephen J.; De La Rosa, Mario; Brook, David W.

2017-01-01

The current study examines the longitudinal patterns of both cigarette smoking and depressive symptoms as predictors of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) using data from the Harlem Longitudinal Development Study. There were 674 African American (53%) and Puerto Rican (47%) participants. Among the 674 participants, 60% were females. In the logistic regression analyses, the indicator variables of membership in each of the joint trajectories of cigarette smoking and depressive symptoms from the mid 20s to the mid 30s were used as the independent variables, and the diagnosis of GAD in the mid 30s was used as the dependent variable. The high cigarette smoking with high depressive symptoms group and the low cigarette smoking with high depressive symptoms group were associated with an increased likelihood of having GAD as compared to the no cigarette smoking with low depressive symptoms group. The findings shed light on the prevention and treatment of GAD. PMID:28281938

Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vorosmarty, Charles J.; de Guenni, Lelys Bravo; Wollheim, Wilfred M.; Pellerin, Brian A.; Bjerklie, David M.; Cardoso, Manoel; D'Almeida, Cassiano; Colon, Lilybeth

2013-01-01

Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960–2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard, exposure, affectedpopulations, vulnerability and risk, and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.

Changes in seasonal streamflow extremes experienced in rivers of Northwestern South America (Colombia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierini, J. O.; Restrepo, J. C.; Aguirre, J.; Bustamante, A. M.; Velásquez, G. J.

2017-04-01

A measure of the variability in seasonal extreme streamflow was estimated for the Colombian Caribbean coast, using monthly time series of freshwater discharge from ten watersheds. The aim was to detect modifications in the streamflow monthly distribution, seasonal trends, variance and extreme monthly values. A 20-year length time moving window, with 1-year successive shiftments, was applied to the monthly series to analyze the seasonal variability of streamflow. The seasonal-windowed data were statistically fitted through the Gamma distribution function. Scale and shape parameters were computed using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and the bootstrap method for 1000 resample. A trend analysis was performed for each windowed-serie, allowing to detect the window of maximum absolute values for trends. Significant temporal shifts in seasonal streamflow distribution and quantiles (QT), were obtained for different frequencies. Wet and dry extremes periods increased significantly in the last decades. Such increase did not occur simultaneously through the region. Some locations exhibited continuous increases only at minimum QT.

Flexible stocking as a strategy for enhancing ranch profitability in the face of a changing and variable climate

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Predicted climate change impacts include increased weather variability and increased occurrences of extreme events such as drought. Such climate changes potentially affect cattle performance as well as pasture and range productivity. These climate induced risks are often coupled with variable market...

Survey of United States Army Reserve (USAR) Troop Program Unit (TPU) soldiers 1989. Tabulation of Questionnaire Responses: Cross-Sectional Sample: Officers and Enlisted Personnel

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-09-30

26 QUESTIONNAIRE INSTRUMENT ri. -I., DATA TABULATION VOLUMES This material provides information for use by readers to interpret...The second longitudinal Tabulation Volume reports the 1988 questionnaire responses of the junior enlisted "stayers" who were used as the sample to...the specific crossing variables used for the cross-sectional and longitudinal Tabulation Volumes. Cross-Sectional Tabulation Volumes. Demographic

Climate change, extreme weather events, and us health impacts: what can we say?

PubMed

Mills, David M

2009-01-01

Address how climate change impacts on a group of extreme weather events could affect US public health. A literature review summarizes arguments for, and evidence of, a climate change signal in select extreme weather event categories, projections for future events, and potential trends in adaptive capacity and vulnerability in the United States. Western US wildfires already exhibit a climate change signal. The variability within hurricane and extreme precipitation/flood data complicates identifying a similar climate change signal. Health impacts of extreme events are not equally distributed and are very sensitive to a subset of exceptional extreme events. Cumulative uncertainty in forecasting climate change driven characteristics of extreme events and adaptation prevents confidently projecting the future health impacts from hurricanes, wildfires, and extreme precipitation/floods in the United States attributable to climate change.

Socio-ecological Typologies for Understanding Adaptive Capacity of a Region to Natural Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surendran Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.; King, A. W.; Mei, R.

2015-12-01

It is expected that the frequency and magnitude of extreme climatic events will increase in coming decades with an anticipated increase in losses from climate hazards. In the Gulf Coastal region of the United States, climate hazards/disasters are common including hurricanes, drought and flooding. However, the capacity to adapt to extreme climatic events varies across the region. This adaptive capacity is linked to the magnitude of the extreme event, exposed infrastructure, and the socio-economic conditions across the region. This study uses hierarchical clustering to quantitatively integrates regional socioeconomic and biophysical factors and develop socio-ecological typologies (SET). The biophysical factors include climatic and topographic variables, and the socio-economic variables include human capital, social capital and man-made resources (infrastructure) of the region. The types of the SET are independent variables in a statistical model of a regional variable of interest. The methodology was applied to US Gulf States to evaluate the social and biophysical determinants of the regional variation in social vulnerability and economic loss to climate hazards. The results show that the SET explains much of the regional variation in social vulnerability, effectively capturing its determinants. In addition, the SET also explains of the variability in economic loss to hazards across of the region. The approach can thus be used to prioritize adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability and loss across the region.

Multilevel regression analyses to investigate the relationship between two variables over time: examining the longitudinal association between intrusion and avoidance.

PubMed

Suvak, Michael K; Walling, Sherry M; Iverson, Katherine M; Taft, Casey T; Resick, Patricia A

2009-12-01

Multilevel modeling is a powerful and flexible framework for analyzing nested data structures (e.g., repeated measures or longitudinal designs). The authors illustrate a series of multilevel regression procedures that can be used to elucidate the nature of the relationship between two variables across time. The goal is to help trauma researchers become more aware of the utility of multilevel modeling as a tool for increasing the field's understanding of posttraumatic adaptation. These procedures are demonstrated by examining the relationship between two posttraumatic symptoms, intrusion and avoidance, across five assessment points in a sample of rape and robbery survivors (n = 286). Results revealed that changes in intrusion were highly correlated with changes in avoidance over the 18-month posttrauma period.

A RESEARCH DATABASE FOR IMPROVED DATA MANAGEMENT AND ANALYSIS IN LONGITUDINAL STUDIES

PubMed Central

BIELEFELD, ROGER A.; YAMASHITA, TOYOKO S.; KEREKES, EDWARD F.; ERCANLI, EHAT; SINGER, LYNN T.

2014-01-01

We developed a research database for a five-year prospective investigation of the medical, social, and developmental correlates of chronic lung disease during the first three years of life. We used the Ingres database management system and the Statit statistical software package. The database includes records containing 1300 variables each, the results of 35 psychological tests, each repeated five times (providing longitudinal data on the child, the parents, and behavioral interactions), both raw and calculated variables, and both missing and deferred values. The four-layer menu-driven user interface incorporates automatic activation of complex functions to handle data verification, missing and deferred values, static and dynamic backup, determination of calculated values, display of database status, reports, bulk data extraction, and statistical analysis. PMID:7596250

[Autoaggression and pulse rate--a longitudinal study].

PubMed

Rohmann, U H; Elbing, U; Hartmann, H

1988-12-01

This article presents a model of autoaggressive behavior in which a distinction is made between determining and maintaining factors. Specific environmental, in particular social, and organismic variables are linked to them. The two types of variables interact, thus causing or maintaining autoaggressive behavior. A theory of autoaggression must therefore rely on multicausal/multimodal explanations. A connection between autoaggression and a high level of arousal suggests itself. In this single-case longitudinal study a comparison was made between heart rate and frequency of autoaggressive behavior. High heart rates were found to be correlated with low frequencies of autoaggressive behavior and vice versa. Decreasing autoaggressive behavior was coupled with increasing muscle relaxation and increasing motor activity. However, abnormally high heart rates were associated with both low and high levels of motor activity.

What is learned from longitudinal studies of advertising and youth drinking and smoking? A critical assessment.

PubMed

Nelson, Jon P

2010-03-01

This paper assesses the methodology employed in longitudinal studies of advertising and youth drinking and smoking behaviors. These studies often are given a causal interpretation in the psychology and public health literatures. Four issues are examined from the perspective of econometrics. First, specification and validation of empirical models. Second, empirical issues associated with measures of advertising receptivity and exposure. Third, potential endogeneity of receptivity and exposure variables. Fourth, sample selection bias in baseline and follow-up surveys. Longitudinal studies reviewed include 20 studies of youth drinking and 26 studies of youth smoking. Substantial shortcomings are found in the studies, which preclude a causal interpretation.

Apparatus and systems for measuring elongation of objects, methods of measuring, and reactor

DOEpatents

Rempe, Joy L [Idaho Falls, ID; Knudson, Darrell L [Firth, ID; Daw, Joshua E [Idaho Falls, ID; Condie, Keith G [Idaho Falls, ID; Stoots, Carl M [Idaho Falls, ID

2011-11-29

Elongation measurement apparatuses and systems comprise at least two Linear Variable Differential Transformers (LVDTs) with a push rod coupled to each of the at least two LVDTs at one longitudinal end thereof. At least one push rod extends to a base and is coupled thereto at an opposing longitudinal end, and at least one other push rod extends to a location spaced apart from the base and is configured to receive a sample between an opposing longitudinal end of the at least one other push rod and the base. Nuclear reactors comprising such apparatuses and systems and methods of measuring elongation of a material are also disclosed.

What is Learned from Longitudinal Studies of Advertising and Youth Drinking and Smoking? A Critical Assessment

PubMed Central

Nelson, Jon P

2010-01-01

This paper assesses the methodology employed in longitudinal studies of advertising and youth drinking and smoking behaviors. These studies often are given a causal interpretation in the psychology and public health literatures. Four issues are examined from the perspective of econometrics. First, specification and validation of empirical models. Second, empirical issues associated with measures of advertising receptivity and exposure. Third, potential endogeneity of receptivity and exposure variables. Fourth, sample selection bias in baseline and follow-up surveys. Longitudinal studies reviewed include 20 studies of youth drinking and 26 studies of youth smoking. Substantial shortcomings are found in the studies, which preclude a causal interpretation. PMID:20617009

Theory of planned behaviour variables and objective walking behaviour do not show seasonal variation in a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Williams, Stefanie L; French, David P

2014-02-05

Longitudinal studies have shown that objectively measured walking behaviour is subject to seasonal variation, with people walking more in summer compared to winter. Seasonality therefore may have the potential to bias the results of randomised controlled trials if there are not adequate statistical or design controls. Despite this there are no studies that assess the impact of seasonality on walking behaviour in a randomised controlled trial, to quantify the extent of such bias. Further there have been no studies assessing how season impacts on the psychological predictors of walking behaviour to date. The aim of the present study was to assess seasonal differences in a) objective walking behaviour and b) Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) variables during a randomised controlled trial of an intervention to promote walking. 315 patients were recruited to a two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial of an intervention to promote walking in primary care. A series of repeated measures ANCOVAs were conducted to examine the effect of season on pedometer measures of walking behaviour and TPB measures, assessed immediately post-intervention and six months later. Hierarchical regression analyses were conducted to assess whether season moderated the prediction of intention and behaviour by TPB measures. There were no significant differences in time spent walking in spring/summer compared to autumn/winter. There was no significant seasonal variation in most TPB variables, although the belief that there will be good weather was significantly higher in spring/summer (F = 19.46, p < .001). Season did not significantly predict intention or objective walking behaviour, or moderate the effects of TPB variables on intention or behaviour. Seasonality does not influence objectively measured walking behaviour or psychological variables during a randomised controlled trial. Consequently physical activity behaviour outcomes in trials will not be biased by the season in which they are measured. Previous studies may have overestimated the extent of seasonality effects by selecting the most extreme summer and winter months to assess PA. In addition, participants recruited to behaviour change interventions might have higher levels of motivation to change and are less affected by seasonal barriers. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN95932902.

Predicting the Effects of Longitudinal Variables on Cost and Schedule Performance

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

budget so that as cost growth occurs, it can be absorbed (Moore, 2003:2). This number padding is very tempting since it relieves the program...presence of a value, zero was entered for the missing variables because without any value assigned, the analysis software would ignore all data for the...program in question, reducing the already small dataset. Second, if we considered the variable in isolation, we removed the zero and left the field

Explanatory model of emotional-cognitive variables in school mathematics performance: a longitudinal study in primary school

PubMed Central

Cerda, Gamal; Pérez, Carlos; Navarro, José I.; Aguilar, Manuel; Casas, José A.; Aragón, Estíbaliz

2015-01-01

This study tested a structural model of cognitive-emotional explanatory variables to explain performance in mathematics. The predictor variables assessed were related to students’ level of development of early mathematical competencies (EMCs), specifically, relational and numerical competencies, predisposition toward mathematics, and the level of logical intelligence in a population of primary school Chilean students (n = 634). This longitudinal study also included the academic performance of the students during a period of 4 years as a variable. The sampled students were initially assessed by means of an Early Numeracy Test, and, subsequently, they were administered a Likert-type scale to measure their predisposition toward mathematics (EPMAT) and a basic test of logical intelligence. The results of these tests were used to analyse the interaction of all the aforementioned variables by means of a structural equations model. This combined interaction model was able to predict 64.3% of the variability of observed performance. Preschool students’ performance in EMCs was a strong predictor for achievement in mathematics for students between 8 and 11 years of age. Therefore, this paper highlights the importance of EMCs and the modulating role of predisposition toward mathematics. Also, this paper discusses the educational role of these findings, as well as possible ways to improve negative predispositions toward mathematical tasks in the school domain. PMID:26441739

Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brunsell, Nathaniel; Mechem, David; Ma, Chunsheng

Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive tomore » alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.« less

Longitudinal performance of a surgically implanted neuroprosthesis for lower-extremity exercise, standing, and transfers after spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Triolo, Ronald J; Bailey, Stephanie Nogan; Miller, Michael E; Rohde, Loretta M; Anderson, James S; Davis, John A; Abbas, James J; DiPonio, Lisa A; Forrest, George P; Gater, David R; Yang, Lynda J

2012-05-01

To investigate the longitudinal performance of a surgically implanted neuroprosthesis for lower-extremity exercise, standing, and transfers after spinal cord injury. Case series. Research or outpatient physical therapy departments of 4 academic hospitals. Subjects (N=15) with thoracic or low cervical level spinal cord injuries who had received the 8-channel neuroprosthesis for exercise and standing. After completing rehabilitation with the device, the subjects were discharged to unrestricted home use of the system. A series of assessments were performed before discharge and at a follow-up appointment approximately 1 year later. Neuroprosthesis usage, maximum standing time, body weight support, knee strength, knee fatigue index, electrode stability, and component survivability. Levels of maximum standing time, body weight support, knee strength, and knee fatigue index were not statistically different from discharge to follow-up (P>.05). Additionally, neuroprosthesis usage was consistent with subjects choosing to use the system on approximately half of the days during each monitoring period. Although the number of hours using the neuroprosthesis remained constant, subjects shifted their usage to more functional standing versus more maintenance exercise, suggesting that the subjects incorporated the neuroprosthesis into their lives. Safety and reliability of the system were demonstrated by electrode stability and a high component survivability rate (>90%). This group of 15 subjects is the largest cohort of implanted lower-extremity neuroprosthetic exercise and standing system users. The safety and efficiency data from this group, and acceptance of the neuroprosthesis as demonstrated by continued usage, indicate that future efforts toward commercialization of a similar device may be warranted. Copyright © 2012 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Damage to ventral and dorsal language pathways in acute aphasia

PubMed Central

Hartwigsen, Gesa; Kellmeyer, Philipp; Glauche, Volkmar; Mader, Irina; Klöppel, Stefan; Suchan, Julia; Karnath, Hans-Otto; Weiller, Cornelius; Saur, Dorothee

2013-01-01

Converging evidence from neuroimaging studies and computational modelling suggests an organization of language in a dual dorsal–ventral brain network: a dorsal stream connects temporoparietal with frontal premotor regions through the superior longitudinal and arcuate fasciculus and integrates sensorimotor processing, e.g. in repetition of speech. A ventral stream connects temporal and prefrontal regions via the extreme capsule and mediates meaning, e.g. in auditory comprehension. The aim of our study was to test, in a large sample of 100 aphasic stroke patients, how well acute impairments of repetition and comprehension correlate with lesions of either the dorsal or ventral stream. We combined voxelwise lesion-behaviour mapping with the dorsal and ventral white matter fibre tracts determined by probabilistic fibre tracking in our previous study in healthy subjects. We found that repetition impairments were mainly associated with lesions located in the posterior temporoparietal region with a statistical lesion maximum in the periventricular white matter in projection of the dorsal superior longitudinal and arcuate fasciculus. In contrast, lesions associated with comprehension deficits were found more ventral-anterior in the temporoprefrontal region with a statistical lesion maximum between the insular cortex and the putamen in projection of the ventral extreme capsule. Individual lesion overlap with the dorsal fibre tract showed a significant negative correlation with repetition performance, whereas lesion overlap with the ventral fibre tract revealed a significant negative correlation with comprehension performance. To summarize, our results from patients with acute stroke lesions support the claim that language is organized along two segregated dorsal–ventral streams. Particularly, this is the first lesion study demonstrating that task performance on auditory comprehension measures requires an interaction between temporal and prefrontal brain regions via the ventral extreme capsule pathway. PMID:23378217

Changes in Hydrological Extremes and its Relation to Climate Variability in Mountainous Watershed: A Case Study from Gandaki River Basin, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, N. S.; Dahal, P.

2016-12-01

Changes in the hydrological extreme are expected due to climate variability and are needed to assess at local and regional scales since these changes are not uniform over the globe. This study analyses the changes in intensity, frequency and persistence hydrological extreme in Gandaki River Basin (GRB) Nepal over past and future and its relation to climate variability. Hydrological data of 12 different hydrological stations covering all the sub basins of Gandaki River Basin were analyzed. At least 1 hydrological station in each sub basin to the maximum of 3 was taken into consideration for this study. Results show that hydrological extreme have increased in intensity, frequency and persistence over recent year and are predicted to increase in future (2030-2060). The time-series analysis revealed an increase in the magnitude, frequency and duration of flood and drought. The instantaneous maximum flow, flood events and duration of flood events are found to have increasing trend. The minimum discharge was observed to be decreasing which entails that the water availability in the driest time is decreasing. Trend analysis of seasonal flow revealed an increase in monsoon flows and decreasing in post monsoon. Changes in climate variability over the same period shows higher anomalies in both temperature and precipitation in recent decades (1990s and 2000s) compared to the baseline period (1970-2000). Model suggests an increasing trend in annual flows with the increase more pronounced in 2060s. Significant increase in extreme flows and subsequent decrease in dependable flows suggest increase in frequency of isolated extreme flows followed by prolonged dry spells. Data also showed that the mean temperature will be increasing from 1.9 0C to 3.1 0C and precipitation will be changing by -8% to +12% in 2031-2060 compared to the baseline period. For long-term planning and management of water resources, current trend and future change in the pattern of water availability should be analysed well in advance. Climate change with intensifying extreme events will likely have serious consequences on the hydrological changes. Therefore, this study would be useful in understanding how the hydrological regime has been changing with climate change in mountainous watershed.

Quantifying the role of climate variability on extreme total water level impacts: An application of a full simulation model to Ocean Beach, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serafin, K.; Ruggiero, P.; Stockdon, H. F.; Barnard, P.; Long, J.

2014-12-01

Many coastal communities worldwide are vulnerable to flooding and erosion driven by extreme total water levels (TWL), potentially dangerous events produced by the combination of large waves, high tides, and high non-tidal residuals. The West coast of the United States provides an especially challenging environment to model these processes due to its complex geological setting combined with uncertain forecasts for sea level rise (SLR), changes in storminess, and possible changes in the frequency of major El Niños. Our research therefore aims to develop an appropriate methodology to assess present-day and future storm-induced coastal hazards along the entire U.S. West coast, filling this information gap. We present the application of this framework in a pilot study at Ocean Beach, California, a National Park site within the Golden Gate National Recreation Area where existing event-scale coastal change data can be used for model calibration and verification. We use a probabilistic, full simulation TWL model (TWL-FSM; Serafin and Ruggiero, in press) that captures the seasonal and interannual climatic variability in extremes using functions of regional climate indices, such as the Multivariate ENSO index (MEI), to represent atmospheric patterns related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In order to characterize the effect of climate variability on TWL components, we refine the TWL-FSM by splitting non-tidal residuals into low (monthly mean sea level anomalies) and high frequency (storm surge) components. We also develop synthetic climate indices using Markov sequences to reproduce the autocorrelated nature of ENSO behavior. With the refined TWL-FSM, we simulate each TWL component, resulting in synthetic TWL records providing robust estimates of extreme return level events (e.g., the 100-yr event) and the ability to examine the relative contribution of each TWL component to these extreme events. Extreme return levels are then used to drive storm impact models to examine the probability of coastal change (Stockdon et al., 2013) and thus, the vulnerability to storm-induced coastal hazards that Ocean Beach faces. Future climate variability is easily incorporated into this framework, allowing us to quantify how an evolving climate will alter future extreme TWLs and their related coastal impacts.

Rain, Brains and Climate Change: improving understanding of regional precipitation with medical registration techniques (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, A.; Ingram, W.; Allen, M. R.; Jenkinson, M.; Lambert, F. H.; Huntingford, C.

2013-12-01

Precipitation is one of the most important climate variables, but is extremely difficult for general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate accurately. Not only do GCMs disagree on projected and past changes, but they also struggle to get the mean present day distribution of precipitation correct. Some of this disagreement in changes, though, is due to errors in location in the GCMs' mean climate. For example, if the GCMs disagree about the location of the South Asian monsoon, they will disagree in their projections when compared locally, even if they all simulate an intensification of this feature. We have therefore implemented techniques to remove biases of location from GCMs' mean climates. Initially, we adapted medical registration software designed for the analysis of brain scans, using it to transform each GCM's mean climate onto observations. These transformations (or ';warps') were then applied to each GCM's projected changes under an extreme climate change scenario (1% CO2 experiment). We found that both the inter-model range and standard deviation were decreased by 15%, with many regions of the globe receiving a more than 50% reduction [Levy et al. 2013, GRL]. We have now developed a technique tailored to the spatial (longitudinal and latitudinal) and seasonal warping of precipitation fields, which is able to correct precipitation fields much more accurately, as well as providing the option to conserve total global rainfall upon warping. As well as allowing more confident projections of future climate change, this technique can be expected to improve the power and accuracy of the detection and attribution of past changes in precipitation. We have now begun investigating this application, and preliminary results will be presented here.

Statistical Extremes of Turbulence and a Cascade Generalisation of Euler's Gyroscope Equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Scherzer, Daniel

2016-04-01

Turbulence refers to a rather well defined hydrodynamical phenomenon uncovered by Reynolds. Nowadays, the word turbulence is used to designate the loss of order in many different geophysical fields and the related fundamental extreme variability of environmental data over a wide range of scales. Classical statistical techniques for estimating the extremes, being largely limited to statistical distributions, do not take into account the mechanisms generating such extreme variability. An alternative approaches to nonlinear variability are based on a fundamental property of the non-linear equations: scale invariance, which means that these equations are formally invariant under given scale transforms. Its specific framework is that of multifractals. In this framework extreme variability builds up scale by scale leading to non-classical statistics. Although multifractals are increasingly understood as a basic framework for handling such variability, there is still a gap between their potential and their actual use. In this presentation we discuss how to dealt with highly theoretical problems of mathematical physics together with a wide range of geophysical applications. We use Euler's gyroscope equation as a basic element in constructing a complex deterministic system that preserves not only the scale symmetry of the Navier-Stokes equations, but some more of their symmetries. Euler's equation has been not only the object of many theoretical investigations of the gyroscope device, but also generalised enough to become the basic equation of fluid mechanics. Therefore, there is no surprise that a cascade generalisation of this equation can be used to characterise the intermittency of turbulence, to better understand the links between the multifractal exponents and the structure of a simplified, but not simplistic, version of the Navier-Stokes equations. In a given way, this approach is similar to that of Lorenz, who studied how the flap of a butterfly wing could generate a cyclone with the help of a 3D ordinary differential system. Being well supported by the extensive numerical results, the cascade generalisation of Euler's gyroscope equation opens new horizons for predictability and predictions of processes having long-range dependences.

The impact of soil moisture extremes and their spatiotemporal variability on Zambian maize yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Y.; Estes, L. D.; Vergopolan, N.

2017-12-01

Food security in sub-Saharan Africa is highly sensitive to climate variability. While it is well understood that extreme heat has substantial negative impacts on crop yield, the impacts of precipitation extremes, particularly over large spatial extents, are harder to quantify. There are three primary reasons for this difficulty, which are (1) lack of high quality, high resolution precipitation data, (2) rainfall data provide incomplete information on plant water availability, the variable that most directly affects crop performance, and (3) the type of rainfall extreme that most affects crop yields varies throughout the crop development stage. With respect to the first reason, the spatial and temporal variation of precipitation is much greater than that of temperature, yet the spatial resolution of rainfall data is typically even coarser than it is for temperature, particularly within Africa. Even if there were high-resolution rainfall data, the amount of water available to crops also depends on other physical factors that affect evapotranspiration, which are strongly influenced by heterogeneity in the land surface related to topography, soil properties, and land cover. In this context, soil moisture provides a better measure of crop water availability than rainfall. Furthermore, soil moisture has significantly different influences on crop yield depending on the crop's growth stage. The goal of this study is to understand how the spatiotemporal scales of soil moisture extremes interact with crops, more specifically, the timing and the spatial scales of extreme events like droughts and flooding. In this study, we simulate daily-1km soil moisture using HydroBlocks - a physically based land surface model - and compare it with precipitation and remote sensing derived maize yields between 2000 and 2016 in Zambia. We use a novel combination of the SCYM (scalable satellite-based yield mapper) method with DSSAT crop model, which is a mechanistic model responsive to water stress. Understanding the relationships between soil moisture spatiotemporal variability and yields can help to improve agricultural drought risk assessment and seasonal crop yield forecasting as well as early season warning of potential famines.

Extreme Weather Years Drive Episodic Acidification and Brownification in Lakes in the Northeast US: Implications for Long-term Shifts in Dissolved Organic Carbon, Water Clarity, and Thermal Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strock, K.; Saros, J. E.

2017-12-01

Interannual climate variability is expected to increase over the next century, but the extent to which hydroclimatic variability influences biogeochemical processes is unclear. To determine the effects of extreme weather on surface water chemistry, a 30-year record of surface water geochemistry for 84 lakes in the northeastern U.S. was combined with landscape data and watershed-specific weather data. With these data, responses in sulfate and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations were characterized during extreme wet and extreme dry conditions. Episodic acidification during drought and episodic brownification (increased DOC) during wet years were detected broadly across the northeastern U.S. Episodic chemical response was linearly related to wetland coverage in lake watersheds only during extreme wet years. The results of a redundancy analysis suggest that topographic features also need to be considered and that the interplay between wetlands and their degree of connectivity to surface waters could be driving episodic acidification in this region. A subset of lakes located in Acadia National Park, Maine U.S.A. were studied to better understand the implications of regional increases of DOC in lakes. Water transparency declined across six study sites since 1995 as DOC increased. As clarity declined, some lakes experienced reduced epilimnion thickness. The degree to which transparency changed across the lakes was dependent on DOC concentration, with a larger decline in transparency occurring in clear water lakes than brown water lakes. The results presented here help to clarify the variability observed in long-term recovery from acidification and regional increases in DOC. Specifically, an increased frequency of extreme wet years may be contributing to a recent acceleration in the recovery of lake ecosystems from acidification; however, increased frequency of wet years may also lead to reduced water clarity and altered physical lake habitat. Clarifying the response of DOC, a pivotal regulator of aquatic ecosystems, to extreme weather events across gradients of landscape position and atmospheric deposition, is increasingly important for policy and management decisions as the frequency of extreme events continues to increase in this region.

Bivariate extreme value distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elshamy, M.

1992-01-01

In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

The importance of extreme weight percentile in postoperative morbidity in children.

PubMed

Stey, Anne M; Moss, R Lawrence; Kraemer, Kari; Cohen, Mark E; Ko, Clifford Y; Lee Hall, Bruce

2014-05-01

Anthropometric data are important indicators of child health. This study sought to determine whether anthropometric data of extreme weight were significant predictors of perioperative morbidity in pediatric surgery. This was a cohort study of children 29 days up to 18 years of age undergoing surgical procedures at participating American College of Surgeons' NSQIP Pediatric hospitals in 2011 and 2012. The primary outcomes were composite morbidity and surgical site infection. The primary predictor of interest was weight percentile, which was divided into the following categories: ≤5(th) percentile, 6(th) to 94(th), or ≥95(th) percentile. A hierarchical multivariate logistic model, adjusting for procedure case mix, demographic, and clinical patient characteristic variables, was used to quantify the relationship between weight percentile category and outcomes. Children in the ≤5th weight percentile had 1.19-fold higher odds of overall postoperative morbidity developing than children in the nonextreme range (95% CI, 1.10-1.30) when controlling for clinical variables. Yet these children did not have higher odds of surgical site infection developing. Children in the ≥95(th) weight percentile did not have a significant increase in overall postoperative morbidity. However, they were at 1.35-fold increased odds of surgical site infection compared with those in the nonextreme range when controlling for clinical variables (95% CI, 1.16-1.57). Both extremely high and extremely low weight percentile scores can be associated with increased postoperative complications after controlling for clinical variables. Copyright © 2014 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.