Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

DOE PAGES

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-04-11

Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field ofmore » hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series ( X) with its failure time series ( T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. As a result, our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable  X with corresponding failure time series  T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.« less

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L. K.; Vogel, R. M.

2015-11-01

Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e. that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (X) with its failure time series (T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied Generalized Pareto (GP) model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard event series X, with corresponding failure time series T, should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with rich opportunities for future extensions.

Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field ofmore » hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series ( X) with its failure time series ( T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. As a result, our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable  X with corresponding failure time series  T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.« less

Correlations Between Extreme Atmospheric Hazards and Global Teleconnections: Implications for Multihazard Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steptoe, H.; Jones, S. E. O.; Fox, H.

2018-03-01

Occurrences of concurrent extreme atmospheric hazards represent a significant area of uncertainty for organizations involved in disaster mitigation and risk management. Understanding risks posed by natural disasters and their relationship with global climate drivers is crucial in preparing for extreme events. In this review we quantify the strength of the physical mechanisms linking hazards and atmosphere-ocean processes. We demonstrate how research from the science community may be used to support disaster risk reduction and global sustainable development efforts. We examine peer-reviewed literature connecting 16 regions affected by extreme atmospheric hazards and eight key global drivers of weather and climate. We summarize current understanding of multihazard disaster risk in each of these regions and identify aspects of the global climate system that require further investigation to strengthen our resilience in these areas. We show that some drivers can increase the risk of concurrent hazards across different regions. Organizations that support disaster risk reduction, or underwrite exposure, in multiple regions may have a heightened risk of facing multihazard losses. We find that 15 regional hazards share connections via the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, with the Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode being secondary sources of significant regional interconnectivity. From a hazard perspective, rainfall over China shares the most connections with global drivers and has links to both Northern and Southern Hemisphere modes of variability. We use these connections to assess the global likelihood of concurrent hazard occurrence in support of multihazard resilience and disaster risk reduction goals.

Design and evaluation guidelines for Department of Energy facilities subjected to natural phenomena hazards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kennedy, R.P.; Short, S.A.; McDonald, J.R.

1990-06-01

The Department of Energy (DOE) and the DOE Natural Phenomena Hazards Panel have developed uniform design and evaluation guidelines for protection against natural phenomena hazards at DOE sites throughout the United States. The goal of the guidelines is to assure that DOE facilities can withstand the effects of natural phenomena such as earthquakes, extreme winds, tornadoes, and flooding. The guidelines apply to both new facilities (design) and existing facilities (evaluation, modification, and upgrading). The intended audience is primarily the civil/structural or mechanical engineers conducting the design or evaluation of DOE facilities. The likelihood of occurrence of natural phenomena hazards atmore » each DOE site has been evaluated by the DOE Natural Phenomena Hazard Program. Probabilistic hazard models are available for earthquake, extreme wind/tornado, and flood. Alternatively, site organizations are encouraged to develop site-specific hazard models utilizing the most recent information and techniques available. In this document, performance goals and natural hazard levels are expressed in probabilistic terms, and design and evaluation procedures are presented in deterministic terms. Design/evaluation procedures conform closely to common standard practices so that the procedures will be easily understood by most engineers. Performance goals are expressed in terms of structure or equipment damage to the extent that: (1) the facility cannot function; (2) the facility would need to be replaced; or (3) personnel are endangered. 82 refs., 12 figs., 18 tabs.« less

Natural hazards science strategy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Jones, Lucile M.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Neal, Christina A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Plunkett, Michael L.; Weaver, Craig S.; Wein, Anne; Perry, Suzanne C.

2012-01-01

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events.To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science.In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory

Natural Hazards, Second Edition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouhban, Badaoui

Natural disaster loss is on the rise, and the vulnerability of the human and physical environment to the violent forces of nature is increasing. In many parts of the world, disasters caused by natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, drought, wildfires, intense windstorms, tsunami, and volcanic eruptions have caused the loss of human lives, injury, homelessness, and the destruction of economic and social infrastructure. Over the last few years, there has been an increase in the occurrence, severity, and intensity of disasters, culminating with the devastating tsunami of 26 December 2004 in South East Asia.Natural hazards are often unexpected or uncontrollable natural events of varying magnitude. Understanding their mechanisms and assessing their distribution in time and space are necessary for refining risk mitigation measures. This second edition of Natural Hazards, (following a first edition published in 1991 by Cambridge University Press), written by Edward Bryant, associate dean of science at Wollongong University, Australia, grapples with this crucial issue, aspects of hazard prediction, and other issues. The book presents a comprehensive analysis of different categories of hazards of climatic and geological origin.

Exploration of resilience assessments for natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo Jacomo, Anna; Han, Dawei; Champneys, Alan

2017-04-01

The occurrence of extreme events due to natural hazards is difficult to predict. Extreme events are stochastic in nature, there is a lack of long term data on their occurrence, and there are still gaps in our understanding of their physical processes. This difficulty in prediction will be exacerbated by climate change and human activities. Yet traditional risk assessments measure risk as the probability of occurrence of a hazard, multiplied by the consequences of the hazard occurring, which ignores the recovery process. In light of the increasing concerns on disaster risks and the related system recovery, resilience assessments are being used as an approach which complements and builds on traditional risk assessments and management. In mechanical terms, resilience refers to the amount of energy per unit volume that a material can absorb while maintaining its ability to return to its original shape. Resilience was first applied in the fields of psychology and ecology, and more recently has been used in areas such as social sciences, economics, and engineering. A common metaphor for understanding resilience is the stability landscape. The landscape consists of a surface of interconnected basins, where each basin represents different states of a system, which is a point on the stability landscape. The resilience of the system is its capacity and tendency to remain within a particular basin. This depends on the topology of the landscape, on the system's current position, and on its reaction to different shocks and stresses. In practical terms, resilience assessments have been conducted for various purposes in different sectors. These assessments vary in their required inputs, the methodologies applied, and the output they produce. Some measures used for resilience assessments are hazard independent. These focus on the intrinsic capabilities of a system, for example the insurance coverage of a community, or the buffer capacity of a water storage reservoir. Other

Natural Hazards, Poverty Traps versus Economic Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Netti, Dr.

2012-04-01

Governments, even in developed countries, devote too scarce resources to coping (ex-ante) with natural hazards; as a consequence of this short-sightedness, (ex-post) direct and indirect effects of catastrophic events deeply compromise the economic growth. Protective measures against natural hazards mean complex choices involving the opinions of multidisciplinary groups of experts in the fields of ecology, civic and geotechnical engineering, geology, meteorology, law and economics. Moreover, tools and choices affect different stakeholders: politicians, producers, consumers, taxpayers and voters. Complementarity between informed rationality and democracy need to be recognized and guaranteed as too often the perceptions of the majority of the stakeholders involved about natural hazards are not consistent with any objective information about the catastrophic event. The interaction between strict budget constraints, extremely high degrees of uncertainty, risk-aversion and credit rationing, trade-off between democracy and rationality, are the main causes of potential 'poverty traps'. First of all we believe that the 'reconstruction output' to be included in GDP as an ex-post effect of a natural hazard is a forced investment much more effective in crowding-out other consumption and investment and less effective for growth than investments aiming at increasing, ex-ante, the resiliency of the economy. Keynes' 'Animal Spirits' are embedded in positive expectation for future gains especially if not concentrated in reconstruction procurement sectors but spread across different sectors of the economy. The increased demand for reconstruction goods and services may act in both directions depending on the phase of the business cycles in which the economy is. Risk premiums for risk-averter investors increase in consequence of a natural hazard event; this restrict budget constraints and strengthen credit rationing. A mere replacement effect of the destroyed capital by a more

Modeling and mitigating natural hazards: Stationarity is immortal!

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montanari, Alberto; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2014-12-01

Environmental change is a reason of relevant concern as it is occurring at an unprecedented pace and might increase natural hazards. Moreover, it is deemed to imply a reduced representativity of past experience and data on extreme hydroclimatic events. The latter concern has been epitomized by the statement that "stationarity is dead." Setting up policies for mitigating natural hazards, including those triggered by floods and droughts, is an urgent priority in many countries, which implies practical activities of management, engineering design, and construction. These latter necessarily need to be properly informed, and therefore, the research question on the value of past data is extremely important. We herein argue that there are mechanisms in hydrological systems that are time invariant, which may need to be interpreted through data inference. In particular, hydrological predictions are based on assumptions which should include stationarity. In fact, any hydrological model, including deterministic and nonstationary approaches, is affected by uncertainty and therefore should include a random component that is stationary. Given that an unnecessary resort to nonstationarity may imply a reduction of predictive capabilities, a pragmatic approach, based on the exploitation of past experience and data is a necessary prerequisite for setting up mitigation policies for environmental risk.

Natural Hazards and Climate Change: Making the Link for Policy Makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folger, P.

2003-04-01

Debate about global warming in the U.S. Congress often deteriorates when proposals for restricting consumption of fossil fuels, and thus curtailing carbon dioxide emissions, is mentioned. The negative economic implications of curtailing CO2 emissions often stifle Congressional thinking about strategies to deal with climate change. Some policy makers often malign climate change research as irrelevant to their citizens, e.g. why is simulating temperature trends 100 years into the future meaningful to their voters? An alternative approach is to connect climate change with ongoing natural events such as severe weather, drought and floods. These extreme events may or may not be exacerbated by anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but policy makers can debate and legislate approaches to mitigate against natural hazards now without mentioning carbon. What strategy might connect research results on understanding climate change and natural hazards mitigation in their minds? 1. Identify a specific situation where a key legislator's voters are threatened or affected by extreme natural phenomena, 2. Suggest a policy approach that provides protection or relief for those constituents, 3. Help the policy maker vet the idea within and without the scientific community, 4.Turn that idea into legislation and advocate for its passage.

Natural Hazards In Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres-Vera, M.

2001-12-01

Around the world more than 300 natural disasters occur each year, taking about 250,000 lives and directly affecting more than 200 million people. Natural hazards are complex and vary greatly in their frequency, speed of onset, duration and area affected. They are distinguished from extreme natural events, which are much more common and widespread, by their potential impacts on human societies. A natural disaster is the occurrence of a natural hazard on a large scale, involving great damage and, particularly in developing countries, great loss of life. The Basin of Mexico, whose central and southwestern parts are occupied by the urban area of Mexico City at the average altitude of 2,240 m above the sea level, is located on the southern edge of the Southern Plateau Central, on a segment of the Trans-Mexican Neovolcanic Belt that developed during Pliocene-Holocene times. The Basin of Mexico is a closed basin, which was created with the closing of the former Valley of Mexico because of basaltic-andesitic volcanism that formed the Sierra de Chichinautzin south of the city. The south-flowing drainage was obstructed and prompted the development of a lake that became gradually filled with sediments during the last 700,000 years. The lake fill accumulated unconformably over a terrain of severely dissected topography, which varies notably in thickness laterally. The major part of the urban area of Mexico City is built over these lake deposits, whereas the rest is built over alluvial material that forms the transition zone between the lake deposits and what constitutes the basement for the basin fill. In the present study, the effect of rain, fire and earthquakes onto Mexico City is evaluated. Rain risk was calculated using the most dangerous flood paths. The fire risk zones were determined by defining the vegetation areas with greater probability to catch fires. Earthquake hazards were determined by characterization of the zones that are vulnerable to damages produced by

Correlating regional natural hazards for global reinsurance risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steptoe, Hamish; Maynard, Trevor; Economou, Theo; Fox, Helen; Wallace, Emily; Maisey, Paul

2016-04-01

Concurrent natural hazards represent an uncertainty in assessing exposure for the insurance industry. The recently implemented Solvency II Directive requires EU insurance companies to fully understand and justify their capital reserving and portfolio decisions. Lloyd's, the London insurance and reinsurance market, commissioned the Met Office to investigate the dependencies between different global extreme weather events (known to the industry as perils), and the mechanisms for these dependencies, with the aim of helping them assess their compound risk to the exposure of multiple simultaneous hazards. In this work, we base the analysis of hazard-to-hazard dependency on the interaction of different modes of global and regional climate variability. Lloyd's defined 16 key hazard regions, including Australian wildfires, flooding in China and EU windstorms, and we investigate the impact of 10 key climate modes on these areas. We develop a statistical model that facilitates rapid risk assessment whilst allowing for both temporal auto-correlation and, crucially, interdependencies between drivers. The simulator itself is built conditionally using autoregressive regression models for each driver conditional on the others. Whilst the baseline assumption within the (re)insurance industry is that different natural hazards are independent of each other, the assumption of independence of meteorological risks requires greater justification. Although our results suggest that most of the 120 hazard-hazard connections considered are likely to be independent of each other, 13 have significant dependence arising from one or more global modes of climate variability. This allows us to create a matrix of linkages describing the hazard dependency structure that Lloyd's can use to inform their understanding of risk.

Forecasting extreme temperature health hazards in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

2017-04-01

Extreme hot temperatures, such as those experienced during a heat wave, represent a dangerous meteorological hazard to human health. Heat disorders such as sunstroke are harmful to people of all ages and responsible for excess mortality in the affected areas. In 2003 more than 50,000 people died in western and southern Europe because of a severe and sustained episode of summer heat [1]. Furthermore, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change heat waves are expected to get more frequent in the future thus posing an increasing threat to human lives. Developing appropriate tools for extreme hot temperatures prediction is therefore mandatory to increase public preparedness and mitigate heat-induced impacts. A recent study has shown that forecasts of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) provide a valid overview of extreme temperature health hazards on a global scale [2]. UTCI is a parameter related to the temperature of the human body and its regulatory responses to the surrounding atmospheric environment. UTCI is calculated using an advanced thermo-physiological model that includes the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. To forecast UTCI the model uses meteorological inputs, such as 2m air temperature, 2m water vapour pressure and wind velocity at body height derived from 10m wind speed, from NWP models. Here we examine the potential of UTCI as an extreme hot temperature prediction tool for the European area. UTCI forecasts calculated using above-mentioned parameters from ECMWF models are presented. The skill in predicting UTCI for medium lead times is also analysed and discussed for implementation to international health-hazard warning systems. This research is supported by the ANYWHERE project (EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events) which is funded by the European Commission's HORIZON2020 programme. [1] Koppe C. et al., Heat waves: risks and responses. World Health Organization. Health and

Desicion Support System For Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyazilov, E.

2009-04-01

economy to natural hazards (intersection of economic centers and natural hazard risks), to develop tools to identify specific regions with complicated socio-technical environment exposed to natural hazards. DSS makes it possible to: deliver initial, analytical, forecasting and climatic information at any moment, in any point, on any region and to any device; take into account all operational information and on its basis provide recommendations on decision making; optimize shirt-term and long-term planning; minimize damage and losses due to prompt and informed decisions. Currently a static page showing examples of impacts and recommendations for various marine hazards is available at http://www.meteo.ru/nodc/project2/action.htm,http://www.meteo.ru/nodc/Product/recom.htm#m. Made in frame the RFBR project № 07-01-00662-a.

Remote sensing helps to assess natural hazards and environmental changes in Asia-Pacific region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thouret, Jean-Claud; Liew, Soo Chin; Gupta, Avijit

2012-04-01

Conference on Remote Sensing, Natural Hazards, and Environmental Change; Singapore, 28-29 July 2011 Natural hazards and anthropogenic environmental changes, both significant in the Asia-Pacific region, were the two themes of a conference organized by the National University of Singapore's Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing (CRISP) and the Université Blaise Pascal's Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans. The application of satellite imagery at a wide range of resolutions, from 500 meters to 50 centimeters, was a unifying approach in many of the studies presented. The recent arrival of a new generation of satellites with extremely high resolution (50 centimeters) has improved scientists' ability to carry out detailed studies of natural hazards and environmental change.

The HTM Spatial Pooler-A Neocortical Algorithm for Online Sparse Distributed Coding.

PubMed

Cui, Yuwei; Ahmad, Subutai; Hawkins, Jeff

2017-01-01

Hierarchical temporal memory (HTM) provides a theoretical framework that models several key computational principles of the neocortex. In this paper, we analyze an important component of HTM, the HTM spatial pooler (SP). The SP models how neurons learn feedforward connections and form efficient representations of the input. It converts arbitrary binary input patterns into sparse distributed representations (SDRs) using a combination of competitive Hebbian learning rules and homeostatic excitability control. We describe a number of key properties of the SP, including fast adaptation to changing input statistics, improved noise robustness through learning, efficient use of cells, and robustness to cell death. In order to quantify these properties we develop a set of metrics that can be directly computed from the SP outputs. We show how the properties are met using these metrics and targeted artificial simulations. We then demonstrate the value of the SP in a complete end-to-end real-world HTM system. We discuss the relationship with neuroscience and previous studies of sparse coding. The HTM spatial pooler represents a neurally inspired algorithm for learning sparse representations from noisy data streams in an online fashion.

The Extreme Climate Index: a novel and multi-hazard index for extreme weather events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

2017-04-01

In this presentation we introduce the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events in African countries, thus indicating that a shift to a new climate regime is underway in a particular area. This index has been developed in the context of XCF (eXtreme Climate Facilities) project lead by ARC (African Risk Capacity, specialised agency of the African Union), and will be used in the payouts triggering mechanism of an insurance programme against risks related to the increase of frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events due to climate regimes' changes. The main hazards covered by ECI will be extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding region-specific risk events such as tropical cyclones for the most vulnerable areas. It will be based on data coming from consistent, sufficiently long, high quality historical records and will be standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be comparable. The first step to construct such an index is to define single hazard indicators. In this first study we focused on extreme dry/wet and heat events, using for their description respectively the well-known SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and an index developed by us, called SHI (Standardized Heat-waves Index). The second step consists in the development of a computational strategy to combine these, and possibly other indices, so that the ECI can describe, by means of a single indicator, different types of climatic extremes. According to the methodology proposed in this paper, the ECI is defined by two statistical components: the ECI intensity, which indicates whether an event is extreme or not; the angular component, which represent the contribution of each hazard to the overall intensity of the index. The ECI can thus be used to identify "extremes" after defining a

The Impact Hazard in the Context of Other Natural Hazards and Predictive Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, C. R.

1998-09-01

The hazard due to impact of asteroids and comets has been recognized as analogous, in some ways, to other infrequent but consequential natural hazards (e.g. floods and earthquakes). Yet, until recently, astronomers and space agencies have felt no need to do what their colleagues and analogous agencies must do in order the assess, quantify, and communicate predictions to those with a practical interest in the predictions (e.g. public officials who must assess the threats, prepare for mitigation, etc.). Recent heightened public interest in the impact hazard, combined with increasing numbers of "near misses" (certain to increase as Spaceguard is implemented) requires that astronomers accept the responsibility to place their predictions and assessments in terms that may be appropriately considered. I will report on preliminary results of a multi-year GSA/NCAR study of "Prediction in the Earth Sciences: Use and Misuse in Policy Making" in which I have represented the impact hazard, while others have treated earthquakes, floods, weather, global climate change, nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, etc. The impact hazard presents an end-member example of a natural hazard, helping those dealing with more prosaic issues to learn from an extreme. On the other hand, I bring to the astronomical community some lessons long adopted in other cases: the need to understand the policy purposes of impact predictions, the need to assess potential societal impacts, the requirements to very carefully assess prediction uncertainties, considerations of potential public uses of the predictions, awareness of ethical considerations (e.g. conflicts of interest) that affect predictions and acceptance of predictions, awareness of appropriate means for publicly communicating predictions, and considerations of the international context (especially for a hazard that knows no national boundaries).

Natural Hazards - A National Threat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geological Survey, U.S.

2007-01-01

The USGS Role in Reducing Disaster Losses -- In the United States each year, natural hazards cause hundreds of deaths and cost billions of dollars in disaster aid, disruption of commerce, and destruction of homes and critical infrastructure. Although the number of lives lost to natural hazards each year generally has declined, the economic cost of major disaster response and recovery continues to rise. Each decade, property damage from natural hazards events doubles or triples. The United States is second only to Japan in economic damages resulting from natural disasters. A major goal of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is to reduce the vulnerability of the people and areas most at risk from natural hazards. Working with partners throughout all sectors of society, the USGS provides information, products, and knowledge to help build more resilient communities.

HTM Spatial Pooler With Memristor Crossbar Circuits for Sparse Biometric Recognition.

PubMed

James, Alex Pappachen; Fedorova, Irina; Ibrayev, Timur; Kudithipudi, Dhireesha

2017-06-01

Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) is an online machine learning algorithm that emulates the neo-cortex. The development of a scalable on-chip HTM architecture is an open research area. The two core substructures of HTM are spatial pooler and temporal memory. In this work, we propose a new Spatial Pooler circuit design with parallel memristive crossbar arrays for the 2D columns. The proposed design was validated on two different benchmark datasets, face recognition, and speech recognition. The circuits are simulated and analyzed using a practical memristor device model and 0.18 μm IBM CMOS technology model. The databases AR, YALE, ORL, and UFI, are used to test the performance of the design in face recognition. TIMIT dataset is used for the speech recognition.

Implementing Extreme Value Analysis in a Geospatial Workflow for Storm Surge Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catelli, J.; Nong, S.

2014-12-01

Gridded data of 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) storm surge flood elevations for the United States, Gulf of Mexico, and East Coast are critical to understanding this natural hazard. Storm surge heights were calculated across the study area utilizing SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model data for thousands of synthetic US landfalling hurricanes. Based on the results derived from SLOSH, a series of interpolations were performed using spatial analysis in a geographic information system (GIS) at both the SLOSH basin and the synthetic event levels. The result was a single grid of maximum flood elevations for each synthetic event. This project addresses the need to utilize extreme value theory in a geospatial environment to analyze coincident cells across multiple synthetic events. The results are 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) values for each grid cell in the study area. This talk details a geospatial approach to move raster data to SciPy's NumPy Array structure using the Python programming language. The data are then connected through a Python library to an outside statistical package like R to fit cell values to extreme value theory distributions and return values for specified recurrence intervals. While this is not a new process, the value behind this work is the ability to keep this process in a single geospatial environment and be able to easily replicate this process for other natural hazard applications and extreme event modeling.

Special Issue "Natural Hazards' Impact on Urban Areas and Infrastructure" in Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bostenaru Dan, M.

2009-04-01

In 2006 and 2007, at the 3rd and 4th General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union respectivelly, the session on "Natural Hazards' Impact on Urban Areas and Infrastructure" was convened by Maria Bostenaru Dan, then at the Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori di Pavia, ROSE School, Italy, who conducts research on earthquake management and Heidi Kreibich from the GFZ Potsdam, Germany, who conducts research on flood hazards, in 2007 being co-convened also by Agostino Goretti from the Civil Protection in Rome, Italy. The session initially started from an idea of Friedemann Wenzel from the Universität Karlsruhe (TH), Germany, the former speaker of the SFB 461 "Strong earthquakes", the university where also Maria Bostenaru graduated and worked and which runs together with the GFZ Potsdam the CEDIM, the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology. Selected papers from these two sessions as well as invited papers from other specialists were gathered for a special issue to be published in the journal "Natural Hazards" under the guest editorship of Heidi Kreibich and Maria Bostenaru Dan. Unlike the former special issue, this one contains a well balanced mixture of many hazards: climate change, floods, mountain hazards like avalanches, volcanoes, earthquakes. Aim of the issue was to enlarge the co-operation prospects between geosciences and other professions in field of natural hazards. Earthquake engineering and engineering seismology are seen more frequently co-operating, but in field of natural hazards there is a need to co-operate with urban planners, and, looking to the future, also in the field of integrated conservation, which implies co-operation between architecture and urban planning for the preservation of our environment. Integrated conservation is stipulated since the 1970s, which are the years when the participatism, and so the involvment of social sciences started.

Globe of Natural Hazard - A new assessment tool for risk managers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siebert, A. C.

2009-04-01

earth, and an extensive location database makes searching easy. The knowledge modules for historical catastrophes, megacities and change processes can be linked with each other and displayed on the maps. Completely new is the integration of the topic of climate change: various depictions of climate effects and projections show in which regions of the world risk situations have to be reckoned with in future. Thanks to its comprehensive information, the globe is an important tool for identifying risk locations worldwide and evaluating them from a geoscientific perspective. Thus, the transparency of insurance portfolios can be increased and legal requirements can be met. Munich Re's multi-discipline Geo Risks team combines a wealth of global experience and contacts. Clients benefit from a first-class natural hazard consultancy service and valuable support for introducing and implementing geographical information technology systems. The team can also provide the knowledge and technology to help clients plan and set up in-house solutions tailored to different classes of business in this innovative field of underwriting. With the new DVD "Globe of Natural Hazards" risk managers, scientists, lecturers and the public have access to Munich Re's natural hazard knowledge. The Globe of Natural Hazards is a natural hazard risk management tool that is easy to use and understand. Earth's exposure to extreme natural hazards will continue to increase. To overcome these challenges the insurance industry will need accurate and competent information.

Lack of P4H-TM in mice results in age-related retinal and renal alterations.

PubMed

Leinonen, Henri; Rossi, Maarit; Salo, Antti M; Tiainen, Päivi; Hyvärinen, Jaana; Pitkänen, Marja; Sormunen, Raija; Miinalainen, Ilkka; Zhang, Chi; Soininen, Raija; Kivirikko, Kari I; Koskelainen, Ari; Tanila, Heikki; Myllyharju, Johanna; Koivunen, Peppi

2016-09-01

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD), affecting the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE), is the leading cause of blindness in middle-aged and older people in developed countries. Genetic and environmental risk factors have been identified, but no effective cure exists. Using a mouse model we show that a transmembrane prolyl 4-hydroxylase (P4H-TM), which participates in the oxygen-dependent regulation of the hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF), is a potential novel candidate gene for AMD. We show that P4h-tm had its highest expression levels in the mouse RPE and brain, heart, lung, skeletal muscle and kidney. P4h-tm -/- mice were fertile and had a normal life span. Lack of P4h-tm stabilized HIF-1α in cortical neurons under normoxia, while in hypoxia it increased the expression of certain HIF target genes in tissues with high endogenous P4h-tm expression levels more than in wild-type mice. Renal erythropoietin levels increased in P4h-tm -/- mice with aging, but the resulting ∼2-fold increase in erythropoietin serum levels did not lead to erythrocytosis. Instead, accumulation of lipid-containing lamellar bodies in renal tubuli was detected in P4h-tm -/- mice with aging, resulting in inflammation and fibrosis, and later glomerular sclerosis and albuminuria. Lack of P4h-tm was associated with retinal thinning, rosette-like infoldings and drusen-like structure accumulation in RPE with aging, as is characteristic of AMD. Photoreceptor recycling was compromised, and electroretinograms revealed functional impairment of the cone pathway in adult P4h-tm -/- mice and cone and rod deficiency in middle-aged mice. P4H-TM is therefore imperative for normal vision, and potentially a novel candidate for age-induced diseases, such as AMD. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Understanding risk and resilience to natural hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan

2011-01-01

Natural hazards threaten the safety and economic wellbeing of communities. These hazards include sudden-onset hazards, such as earthquakes, and slowly emerging, chronic hazards, such as those associated with climate change. To help public officials, emergency and other managers, the business community, and at-risk individuals reduce the risks posed by such hazards, the USGS Western Geographic Science Center is developing new ways to assess and communicate societal risk and resilience to catastrophic and chronic natural hazards.

Thinking of Wildfire as a Natural Hazard

Treesearch

Sarah McCaffrey

2004-01-01

Natural hazards theory with its emphasis on understanding the human-hazard interaction has much to offer in better understanding how individuals respond to the wildfire hazard. Ironically, very few natural hazards studies have actually looked at wildfires, despite the insights the field might offer. This report is structured around four interrelated questions that are...

A Natural Hazards Workbook.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kohler, Fred

This paper discusses the development of and provides examples of exercises from a student workbook for a college-level course about natural hazards. The course is offered once a year to undergraduates at Western Illinois University. Students are introduced to 10 hazards (eight meteorological plus earthquakes and volcanoes) through slides, movies,…

Natural phenomena hazards design and evaluation criteria for Department of Energy Facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1996-01-01

The Department of Energy (DOE) has issued an Order 420.1 which establishes policy for its facilities in the event of natural phenomena hazards (NPH) along with associated NPH mitigation requirements. This DOE Standard gives design and evaluation criteria for NPH effects as guidance for implementing the NPH mitigation requirements of DOE Order 420.1 and the associated implementation Guides. These are intended to be consistent design and evaluation criteria for protection against natural phenomena hazards at DOE sites throughout the United States. The goal of these criteria is to assure that DOE facilities can withstand the effects of natural phenomena suchmore » as earthquakes, extreme winds, tornadoes, and flooding. These criteria apply to the design of new facilities and the evaluation of existing facilities. They may also be used for modification and upgrading of existing facilities as appropriate. The design and evaluation criteria presented herein control the level of conservatism introduced in the design/evaluation process such that earthquake, wind, and flood hazards are treated on a consistent basis. These criteria also employ a graded approach to ensure that the level of conservatism and rigor in design/evaluation is appropriate for facility characteristics such as importance, hazards to people on and off site, and threat to the environment. For each natural phenomena hazard covered, these criteria consist of the following: Performance Categories and target performance goals as specified in the DOE Order 420.1 NPH Implementation Guide, and DOE-STD-1 021; specified probability levels from which natural phenomena hazard loading on structures, equipment, and systems is developed; and design and evaluation procedures to evaluate response to NPH loads and criteria to assess whether or not computed response is permissible.« less

Increasing resiliency to natural hazards - A strategic plan for the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Lucy; Bernknopf, Richard; Cannon, Susan; Cox, Dale A.; Gaydos, Len; Keeley, Jon; Kohler, Monica; Lee, Homa; Ponti, Daniel; Ross, Stephanie L.; Schwarzbach, Steven; Shulters, Michael; Ward, A. Wesley; Wein, Anne

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is initiating a new project designed to improve resiliency to natural hazards in southern California through the application of science to community decision making and emergency response. The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project will assist the region’s communities to reduce their risk from natural hazards by directing new and existing research towards the community’s needs, improving monitoring technology, producing innovative products, and improving dissemination of the results. The natural hazards to be investigated in this project include coastal erosion, earthquakes, floods, landslides, tsunamis, and wildfires.Americans are more at risk from natural hazards now than at any other time in our Nation’s history. Southern California, in particular, has one of the Nation’s highest potentials for extreme catastrophic losses due to natural hazards, with estimates of expected losses exceeding $3 billion per year. These losses can only be reduced through the decisions of the southern California community itself. To be effective, these decisions must be guided by the best information about hazards, risk, and the cost-effectiveness of mitigation technologies. The USGS will work with collaborators to set the direction of the research and to create multi-hazard risk frameworks where communities can apply the results of scientific research to their decision-making processes. Partners include state, county, city, and public-lands government agencies, public and private utilities, companies with a significant impact and presence in southern California, academic researchers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and local emergency response agencies.Prior to the writing of this strategic plan document, three strategic planning workshops were held in February and March 2006 at the USGS office in Pasadena to explore potential relationships. The goal of these planning

Resilience to Interacting multi-natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuo, Lu; Han, Dawei

2016-04-01

Conventional analyses of hazard assessment tend to focus on individual hazards in isolation. However, many parts of the world are usually affected by multiple natural hazards with the potential for interacting relationships. The understanding of such interactions, their impacts and the related uncertainties, are an important and topical area of research. Interacting multi-hazards may appear in different forms, including 1) CASCADING HAZARDS (a primary hazard triggering one or more secondary hazards such as an earthquake triggering landslides which may block river channels with dammed lakes and ensued floods), 2) CONCURRING HAZARDS (two or more primary hazards coinciding to trigger or exacerbate secondary hazards such as an earthquake and a rainfall event simultaneously creating landslides), and 3) ALTERING HAZARDS (a primary hazard increasing the probability of a secondary hazard occurring such as major earthquakes disturbing soil/rock materials by violent ground shaking which alter the regional patterns of landslides and debris flows in the subsequent years to come). All three types of interacting multi-hazards may occur in natural hazard prone regions, so it is important that research on hazard resilience should cover all of them. In the past decades, great progresses have been made in tackling disaster risk around the world. However, there are still many challenging issues to be solved, and the disasters over recent years have clearly demonstrated the inadequate resilience in our highly interconnected and interdependent systems. We have identified the following weaknesses and knowledge gaps in the current disaster risk management: 1) although our understanding in individual hazards has been greatly improved, there is a lack of sound knowledge about mechanisms and processes of interacting multi-hazards. Therefore, the resultant multi-hazard risk is often significantly underestimated with severe consequences. It is also poorly understood about the spatial and

Narrowing the Insurance Protection Gap: The important role of Natural Hazards Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manghnani, V.

2016-12-01

The Insurance industry is a key component of the economic engine. It allows businesses to reduce uncertainty in their operations, and individuals to rebound from unanticipated events. A thriving insurance industry efficiently transfers risk from individuals and businesses to the capital markets. It allows society to function smoothly and fosters growth. In areas where the private insurance is not a viable option, the outcome is suboptimal - the society ends up carrying the burden. Higher insurance penetration increases disaster resiliency. The long term viability of an insurance product depends on the ability of the insurance provider to accurately assess risks, which is critical to pricing insurance and risk monitoring. Insurance payouts are typically incurred during extreme events, therefore the industry is very interested in extreme events research. There are several examples where the insurance industry has stepped away from a market or severely limited its appetite because of lack of data or proper understanding of the underlying risks - such as, flood. Further, the insurance Industry has seen a rising trend of natural hazard related losses over the past few decades. The trends have been particularly strong in hydro meteorological hazards. While a good part of this increasing trend can been explained by increase in exposures, there is also concern that underlying hazard landscape may be evolving. The industry would really benefit from research that identifies secular and long term trends in hydro-meteorological hazards, particularly in the extremes. Insight into non-stationarity in the climate system at a regional level would be very informative of risk management decisions. One can envision a scenario where in the industry stops insuring certain risk (such as storm surge), because of a lack of understanding of the trends in the underlying risk and a consequent poor performance record. In sum, the ability of the industry to assess complex and emerging natural

Safeguarding Cultural Heritage against Climate Change and Natural Hazards through Stakeholder Involvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Wit, Rosmarie; Zuvela-Aloise, Maja; Hollosi, Brigitta; Anders, Ivonne; Höfler, Angelika; Boi, Silvia; Resta, Vanni; Patrikakis, Charalampos

2017-04-01

Europe's cultural heritage is among the richest in the world, and draws millions of visitors to archeological sites, museums, monuments, castles, and other sites each year. The protection and conservation of European heritage is of utmost importance for our society, not only in order to preserve the European cultural identity, but also because cultural heritage is a wealth creator bringing tourism-related business opportunities on which many communities depend. However, Europe's heritage assets are extremely exposed to climate change and natural hazards, which threatens their integrity and may compromise their value. The goal of the STORM (Safeguarding Cultural Heritage through Technical and Organisational Management) project is to provide critical decision-making tools to European cultural heritage stakeholders affected by climate change and natural hazards. Here, the STORM project will be presented with a focus on climate change and natural hazard risk communication to the involved stakeholders. However, climate change communication is not a one-way process, and discussions with stakeholders are necessary to identify their specific needs. Hence, the STORM concept is tested through pilot site studies in five different countries: the Diocletian Baths in Rome, Italy; the Mellor Heritage site, Manchester, UK; the Roman Ruins of Tróia, Portugal; the Historical Centre of Rethymno on Crete, Greece and Ephesus, Izmir, Turkey. Furthermore, the past and future climatic conditions at the project's pilot sites are analysed in terms of mean state and extreme events (for example temperature and precipitation changes evident from observations and climate scenarios), which will be discussed with regard to their relevance for the local cultural heritage protection based on discussions with the stakeholders.

heterogeneous mixture distributions for multi-source extreme rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouarda, T.; Shin, J.; Lee, T. S.

2013-12-01

Mixture distributions have been used to model hydro-meteorological variables showing mixture distributional characteristics, e.g. bimodality. Homogeneous mixture (HOM) distributions (e.g. Normal-Normal and Gumbel-Gumbel) have been traditionally applied to hydro-meteorological variables. However, there is no reason to restrict the mixture distribution as the combination of one identical type. It might be beneficial to characterize the statistical behavior of hydro-meteorological variables from the application of heterogeneous mixture (HTM) distributions such as Normal-Gamma. In the present work, we focus on assessing the suitability of HTM distributions for the frequency analysis of hydro-meteorological variables. In the present work, in order to estimate the parameters of HTM distributions, the meta-heuristic algorithm (Genetic Algorithm) is employed to maximize the likelihood function. In the present study, a number of distributions are compared, including the Gamma-Extreme value type-one (EV1) HTM distribution, the EV1-EV1 HOM distribution, and EV1 distribution. The proposed distribution models are applied to the annual maximum precipitation data in South Korea. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the root mean squared errors (RMSE) and the log-likelihood are used as measures of goodness-of-fit of the tested distributions. Results indicate that the HTM distribution (Gamma-EV1) presents the best fitness. The HTM distribution shows significant improvement in the estimation of quantiles corresponding to the 20-year return period. It is shown that extreme rainfall in the coastal region of South Korea presents strong heterogeneous mixture distributional characteristics. Results indicate that HTM distributions are a good alternative for the frequency analysis of hydro-meteorological variables when disparate statistical characteristics are presented.

Natural Hazards within the West Indies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cross, John A.

1992-01-01

Outlines the vulnerability of the West Indies to various natural hazards, especially hurricanes, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. Reviews the geologic and meteorologic causes and consequences of the hazards. Suggests methods of incorporating hazards information in geography classes. Includes maps and a hurricane tracking chart. (DK)

Urbanization, Extreme Climate Hazards and Food, Energy Water Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romero-Lankao, P.; Davidson, D.; McPhearson, T.

2016-12-01

Research is urgently needed that incorporates the interconnected nature of three critical resources supporting our cities: food, energy and water. Cities are increasing demands for food, water and energy resources that in turn stress resource supplies, creating risks of negative impacts to human and ecological wellbeing. Simultaneously, shifts in climatic conditions, including extremes such as floods, heat, and droughts, threaten the sustainable availability of adequate quantities and qualities of food, energy and water (FEW) resources needed for resilient cities and ecosystems. These resource flows cannot be treated in isolation simply because they are interconnected: shifts in food, energy or water dynamics in turn affect the others, affecting the security of the whole - i.e., FEW nexus security. We present a framework to examine the dynamic interactions of urbanization, FEW nexus security and extreme hazard risks, with two overarching research questions: Do existing and emerging actions intended to enhance a population's food, water and energy security have the capacity to ensure FEW nexus security in the face of changing climate and urban development conditions? Can we identify a common set of social, ecological and technological conditions across a diversity of urban-regions that support the emergence of innovations that can lead to structural transformations for FEW nexus security?

Natural and anthropogenic multi-type hazards for loess territories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavlyanova, Nadira; Zakirova, Zulfiya

2013-04-01

Central Asia (CA) is an extremely large region of varied geography from plains to high, rugged mountains (the region belongs to the Tien-Shan and Pamirs mountain system), vast deserts (Kara Kum, Kyzyl Kum, Taklamakan). The area of the CA region is including the territories of following countries: of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. CA is particularly exposed to natural hazards like earthquakes, landslide, rockfalls, avalanches, mudflows, flooding, high mountains lakes, sub flooding, and debris flow. This region is one of the most seismically active in the world. In XX century almost in each of five countries have occurred strong earthquakes with magnitude more than 7, led to human victims. Loess soils are widespread in this region in foothills, foothill plains and intermountain depressions. Loess can cause a number of engineering problems because loess undergoes structural collapse and subsidence due to saturation when both the initial dry density and initial water content are low. By comparison of the map of seismic zoning to a map of distribution of loess soils it is easy to be convinced that the territory of the majority of seismic areas are covering by collapsible loess soils with significant thickness (50-150 m). The natural hazards leads to a disaster, if it develops in an urbanized or industrial areas and directly affects people and economic objects. In this case, risk takes place with all its consequences especially on loess soil. In the past a formation of natural hazards was connected generally with two main groups of factors: geological structure and climatic conditions. Now to them the third factor - of human made influence was added. Intensive influence of human activity to the loess territories in CA for last 60 years is destruction of nature balance and changing in environment of loess land in zone with high seismic hazard. This processes primarily associated with following: 1) irrigation of new lands; 2) the

Natural phenomena hazards design and evaluation criteria for Department of Energy Facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1994-04-01

This DOE standard gives design and evaluation criteria for natural phenomena hazards (NPH) effects as guidance for implementing the NPH mitigation requirements of DOE 5480.28. Goal of the criteria is to assure that DOE facilities can withstand the effects of earthquakes, extreme winds, tornadoes, flooding, etc. They apply to the design of new facilities and the evaluation of existing facilities; they may also be used for modification and upgrading of the latter.

Assessing Natural Hazard Vulnerability Through Marmara Region Using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabuncu, A.; Garagon Dogru, A.; Ozener, H.

2013-12-01

Natural hazards are natural phenomenon occured in the Earth's system that include geological and meteorological events such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, droughts, fires and tsunamis. The metropolitan cities are vulnerable to natural hazards due to their population densities, industrial facilities and proporties. The urban layout of the megacities are complex since industrial facilities are interference with residential area. The Marmara region is placed in North-western Turkey suffered from natural hazards (earthquakes, floods etc.) for years. After 1999 Kocaeli and Duzce earthquakes and 2009 Istanbul flash floods, dramatic number of casualities and economic losses were reported by the authorities. Geographic information systems (GIS) have substantial capacity in order to develop natural disaster management. As these systems provide more efficient and reliable analysis and evaluation of the data in the management, and also convenient and better solutions for the decision making before during and after the natural hazards. The Earth science data and socio-economic data can be integrated into a GIS as different layers. Additionally, satellite data are used to understand the changes pre and post the natural hazards. GIS is a powerful software for the combination of different type of digital data. A natural hazard database for the Marmara region provides all different types of digital data to the users. All proper data collection processing and analysing are critical to evaluate and identify hazards. The natural hazard database allows users to monitor, analyze and query past and recent disasters in the Marmara Region. The long term aim of this study is to develop geodatabase and identify the natural hazard vulnerabilities of the metropolitan cities.

The «Natural Hazard WIKISAURUS»: explanation and understanding of natural hazards to build disaster resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rapisardi, Elena; Di Franco, Sabina; Giardino, Marco

2013-04-01

In the Internet and Web 2.0 era, the need of information is increased. Moreover, recent major and minor disasters highlighted that information is a crucial element also in emergency management. Informing the population is now the focal point of any civil protection activity and program. Risk perception and social vulnerability become widely discussed issues "when a disaster occurs": a "day-after" approach that should be replaced by a "day-before" one. Is that a cultural problem? Is it a communication issue? As a matter of fact, nowadays academics, experts, institutions are called to be more effective in transferring natural hazards knowledge (technical, operational, historical, social) to the public, for switching from «protection/passivity» (focused on disaster event) to «resilience» (focused on vulnerability). However, this change includes to abandon the "Elites Knowledge" approach and to support "Open Knowledge" and "Open Data" perspectives. Validated scientific information on natural hazards is not yet a common heritage: there are several cases of misleading or inaccurate information published by media. During recent Italian national emergencies [Flash Floods Liguria-Toscana 2011, Earthquake Emilia-Romagna 2012], social media registered people not only asking for news on the disaster event, but also talking trivially about scientific contents on natural hazards. By considering these facts, in the framework of a phD program in Earth Science, a joint team UNITO-NatRisk and CNR-IIA conceived the web project "Natural Hazards Wikisaurus" [NHW], combining two previous experiences: "HyperIspro" - a wiki on civil protection set up by Giuseppe Zamberletti, former Italian minister of Civil Protection - and "Earth Thesaurus", developed by CNR-IIA. The team decided to start from the «words» using both the collaboration of the wiki concept (open and participatory knowledge) and the power of explanation of a thesaurus. Why? Because a word is not enough, as a term has

Natural and technologic hazardous material releases during and after natural disasters: a review.

PubMed

Young, Stacy; Balluz, Lina; Malilay, Josephine

2004-04-25

Natural disasters may be powerful and prominent mechanisms of direct and indirect hazardous material (hazmat) releases. Hazardous materials that are released as the result of a technologic malfunction precipitated by a natural event are referred to as natural-technologic or na-tech events. Na-tech events pose unique environmental and human hazards. Disaster-associated hazardous material releases are of concern, given increases in population density and accelerating industrial development in areas subject to natural disasters. These trends increase the probability of catastrophic future disasters and the potential for mass human exposure to hazardous materials released during disasters. This systematic review summarizes direct and indirect disaster-associated releases, as well as environmental contamination and adverse human health effects that have resulted from natural disaster-related hazmat incidents. Thorough examination of historic disaster-related hazmat releases can be used to identify future threats and improve mitigation and prevention efforts.

Naturally occurring hazardous materials.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-12-01

The study of naturally occurring hazardous materials (NOHMs) was conceived as a proactive response to assure that the Oregon : Department of Transportation (ODOT) maintenance and construction activities take the presence of NOHMs into account. The la...

Sustainable regional development and natural hazard impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrova, Elena; Svetlosanov, Vladimir; Kudin, Valery

2016-04-01

During the last decades, natural hazard impacts on social and economic development in many countries were increasing due to the expansion of human activities into the areas prone to natural risks as well as to increasing in number and severity of natural hazardous events caused by climate changes and other natural phenomena. The escalation of severe disasters (such as Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan 2011) triggered by natural hazards and related natural-technological and environmental events is increasingly threatening sustainable development at different levels from regional to global scale. In our study, we develop a model of ecological, economic and social sustainable development for the European part of Russia and the Republic of Belarus. The model consists of six blocks including 1) population, 2) environment, 3) mineral resources, 4) geographic space, 5) investments, and 6) food production and import. These blocks were created based on the analysis of the main processes at the regional level; all the blocks are closely interrelated between each other. Reaching the limit values of block parameters corresponds to a sharp deterioration of the system; as a result, the system can lose its stability. Aggravation of natural and natural-technological risk impacts on each block and should be taken into account in the model of regional development. Natural hazards can cause both strong influences and small but permanent perturbations. In both cases, a system can become unstable. The criterion for sustainable development is proposed. The Russian Foundation for Humanities and Belorussian Republican Foundation for Fundamental Research supported the study (project 15-22-01008).

Political science, public administration, and natural hazards: contributions and connections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindquist, E.

2009-04-01

The connection between the natural and social sciences has become stronger, and has increasingly been recognized as a vital component in the area of natural hazards research. Moving applied natural hazards research into the public policy or administration realm is not often easy, or effective. An improved understanding of the connection between the natural and social sciences can assist in this process and result in better public policy, acceptance from the public for these policies, and a safer and better educated public. This paper will present initial findings from a larger data set on natural hazards and social science research. Specifically we will review the current contribution of the formal academic disciplines of political science and public administration within recent natural hazards-related scholarship. The general characteristics of the contributions (e.g. coauthored, interdisciplinary, etc.), specific theories and methods being applied, and the types of natural hazards being scrutinized by these related fields will be assessed. In conclusion we will discuss future contributions and areas for potential collaboration between the natural and social sciences in the area of natural hazards research.

The NHERI RAPID Facility: Enabling the Next-Generation of Natural Hazards Reconnaissance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wartman, J.; Berman, J.; Olsen, M. J.; Irish, J. L.; Miles, S.; Gurley, K.; Lowes, L.; Bostrom, A.

2017-12-01

The NHERI post-disaster, rapid response research (or "RAPID") facility, headquartered at the University of Washington (UW), is a collaboration between UW, Oregon State University, Virginia Tech, and the University of Florida. The RAPID facility will enable natural hazard researchers to conduct next-generation quick response research through reliable acquisition and community sharing of high-quality, post-disaster data sets that will enable characterization of civil infrastructure performance under natural hazard loads, evaluation of the effectiveness of current and previous design methodologies, understanding of socio-economic dynamics, calibration of computational models used to predict civil infrastructure component and system response, and development of solutions for resilient communities. The facility will provide investigators with the hardware, software and support services needed to collect, process and assess perishable interdisciplinary data following extreme natural hazard events. Support to the natural hazards research community will be provided through training and educational activities, field deployment services, and by promoting public engagement with science and engineering. Specifically, the RAPID facility is undertaking the following strategic activities: (1) acquiring, maintaining, and operating state-of-the-art data collection equipment; (2) developing and supporting mobile applications to support interdisciplinary field reconnaissance; (3) providing advisory services and basic logistics support for research missions; (4) facilitating the systematic archiving, processing and visualization of acquired data in DesignSafe-CI; (5) training a broad user base through workshops and other activities; and (6) engaging the public through citizen science, as well as through community outreach and education. The facility commenced operations in September 2016 and will begin field deployments beginning in September 2018. This poster will provide an overview

Afghanistan Multi-Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diermanse, Ferdinand; Daniell, James; Pollino, Maurizio; Glover, James; Bouwer, Laurens; de Bel, Mark; Schaefer, Andreas; Puglisi, Claudio; Winsemius, Hessel; Burzel, Andreas; Ammann, Walter; Aliparast, Mojtaba; Jongman, Brenden; Ranghieri, Federica; Fallesen, Ditte

2017-04-01

The geographical location of Afghanistan and years of environmental degradation in the country make Afghanistan highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. These occur in addition to man-made disasters resulting in the frequent loss of live, livelihoods, and property. Since 1980, disasters caused by natural hazards have affected 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The creation, understanding and accessibility of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information is key for effective management of disaster risk. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where reconstruction after recent natural disasters and military conflicts is on-going and will continue over the coming years. So far, there has been limited disaster risk information produced in Afghanistan, and information that does exist typically lacks standard methodology and does not have uniform geo-spatial coverage. There are currently no available risk assessment studies that cover all major natural hazards in Afghanistan, which can be used to assess the costs and benefits of different resilient reconstruction and disaster risk reduction strategies. As a result, the Government of Afghanistan has limited information regarding current and future disaster risk and the effectiveness of policy options on which to base their reconstruction and risk reduction decisions. To better understand natural hazard and disaster risk, the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting the development of new fluvial flood, flash flood, drought, landslide, avalanche and seismic risk information in Afghanistan, as well as a first-order analysis of the costs and benefits of resilient reconstruction and risk reduction strategies undertaken by the authors. The hazard component is the combination of probability and magnitude of natural hazards. Hazard analyses were carried out

Fluor Daniel Hanford implementation plan for DOE Order 5480.28, Natural phenomena hazards mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conrads, T.J.

1997-09-12

Natural phenomena hazards (NPH) are unexpected acts of nature that pose a threat or danger to workers, the public, or the environment. Earthquakes, extreme winds (hurricane and tornado), snow, flooding, volcanic ashfall, and lightning strikes are examples of NPH that could occur at the Hanford Site. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) policy requires facilities to be designed, constructed, and operated in a manner that protects workers, the public, and the environment from hazards caused by natural phenomena. DOE Order 5480.28, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, includes rigorous new natural phenomena criteria for the design of new DOE facilities, as well asmore » for the evaluation and, if necessary, upgrade of existing DOE facilities. The Order was transmitted to Westinghouse Hanford Company in 1993 for compliance and is also identified in the Project Hanford Management Contract, Section J, Appendix C. Criteria and requirements of DOE Order 5480.28 are included in five standards, the last of which, DOE-STD-1023, was released in fiscal year 1996. Because the Order was released before all of its required standards were released, enforcement of the Order was waived pending release of the last standard and determination of an in-force date by DOE Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL). Agreement also was reached between the Management and Operations Contractor and DOE-RL that the Order would become enforceable for new structures, systems, and components (SSCS) 60 days following issue of a new order-based design criteria in HNF-PRO-97, Engineering Design and Evaluation. The order also requires that commitments addressing existing SSCs be included in an implementation plan that is to be issued 1 year following the release of the last standard. Subsequently, WHC-SP-1175, Westinghouse Hanford Company Implementation Plan for DOE Order 5480.28, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, Rev. 0, was issued in November 1996, and this document, HNF-SP-1175, Fluor Daniel Hanford

Quantifying Urban Texture in Nairobi, Kenya and its Implications for Understanding Natural Hazard Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Faith E.; Malamud, Bruce D.; Millington, James D. A.

2016-04-01

The configuration of infrastructure networks such as roads, drainage and power lines can both affect and be affected by natural hazards such as earthquakes, intense rain, wildfires and extreme temperatures. In this paper, we present and compare two methods to quantify urban topology on approximate scales of 0.0005 km2 to 10 km2 and create classifications of different 'urban textures' that relate to risk of natural hazard impact in an area. The methods we use focus on applicability in urban developing country settings, where access to high resolution and high quality data may be difficult. We use the city of Nairobi, Kenya to trial these methods. Nairobi has a population >3 million, and is a mix of informal settlements, residential and commercial development. The city and its immediate surroundings are subject to a variety of natural hazards such as floods, landslides, fires, drought, hail, heavy wind and extreme temperatures; all of these hazards can occur singly, but also have the potential for one to trigger another, thus providing a 'cascade' of hazards, or for two of the hazards to occur spatially and temporally near each other and interact. We use two measures of urban texture: (i) Street block textures, (ii) Google Earth land cover textures. Street block textures builds on the methodology of Louf and Barthelemy (2014) and uses Open Street Map data to analyse the shape, size, complexity and pattern of individual blocks of land created by fully enclosed loops of the major and minor road network of Nairobi. We find >4000 of these blocks ranging in size from approximately 0.0005 km2 to 10 km2, with approximately 5 classifications of urban texture. Google Earth land cover texture is a visual classification of homogeneous parcels of land performed in Google Earth using high-resolution airborne imagery and a qualitative criteria for each land cover type. Using the Google Earth land cover texture method, we identify >40 'urban textures' based on visual

Natural hazard modeling and uncertainty analysis [Chapter 2

Treesearch

Matthew Thompson; Jord J. Warmink

2017-01-01

Modeling can play a critical role in assessing and mitigating risks posed by natural hazards. These modeling efforts generally aim to characterize the occurrence, intensity, and potential consequences of natural hazards. Uncertainties surrounding the modeling process can have important implications for the development, application, evaluation, and interpretation of...

Natural hazard risk assessment and management in the Matter valley, Swiss Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herz, T.; King, L.; Philippi, S.

2003-04-01

The Matter valley has a length of about 40 km and is surrounded by some of the highest peaks of the Alps resulting in extreme altitudinal differences and a continental character of the climate. These climatic conditions cause a high glacier equilibrium line and therefore a periglacial belt of a large vertical extend. Due to the high relief energy, all kinds of natural hazards typical for high mountain environments occur. The steep western slopes are dominated by rockfalls, slope instabilities in bedrock and avalanches. A widespread cover of unconsolidated sediments on the eastern slopes induces landslides and debris flows, which often reach down to the valley bottom where they can dam up the river. Increasing population and modern land use forms required a more and more sensitive attitude towards natural hazard potentials in this endangered area. Assessment and management of natural hazard risks have been much improved during the last fifteen years and increasing amounts of money are spent each year in order to safeguard settlements, traffic lines, and other objects of the technical infrastructure. Numerous investigations concerning natural hazard risks have been made and the results are considered in the actual land use planning of the Canton. The planning law of the Canton Valais defines risk zones as areas, which are endangered by natural hazards like avalanches, rockfalls, landslides and floodings. Risk assessment is done by overview maps (scale 1:25,000) which are specified by detailed risk analyses consisting of registers and detailed maps (scale 1:2,000 to 1:10,000). These analyses are integrated in the land zoning by defining zones of high, medium and low danger, associated with corresponding prohibitions, restrictions and conditions for utilisation. At present, the incorporation of the avalanche and rockfall register in local zoning plans is completed in most communities of the Canton Valais. An additional inventory of 200 slope instabilities was

Natural Hazards Science at the U.S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Suzanne C.; Jones, Lucile M.; Holmes, Robert R.

2013-01-01

The mission of the USGS in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. The USGS conducts hazard research and works closely with stakeholders and cooperators to inform a broad range of planning and response activities at individual, local, State, national, and international levels. It has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms. USGS science can help to understand and reduce risks from natural hazards by providing the information that decisionmakers need to determine which risk management activities are worth­while.

How natural hazards influence Internet searches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geyer, Adelina; Martí, Joan; Villaseñor, Antonio

2017-04-01

Effective dissemination of correct and easy-to-understand scientific information is one of the most imperative tasks of natural hazard assessment and risk management, being the media and the population the two fundamental groups of receptors. It has been observed how during the occurrence of hazardous natural phenomena, media and population desperately seek for information in all possible channels. Traditionally, these have been the radio and television, but over the past decades, the Internet has also become a significant information resource. Nevertheless, how the Internet search behavior changes during the occurrence of natural phenomena of significant societal impact (i.e. involving important human and/or economic losses) has never been analyzed so far. Focusing mainly on volcanism, we use here for the first time Internet search data provided by Google Trends to examine the search patterns of volcanology-related terms and how these may change during unrest periods or volcanic crises. Results obtained allow us to evaluate, at a global and local scale, the interest of society towards volcanological phenomena and its potential background knowledge of Earth Sciences. We show here how Internet search data turns to be a promising tool for the global and local monitoring of awareness and education background of society on natural phenomena in general, and volcanic hazards in particular.

Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Kristin

2016-04-01

Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables

Spatial patterns of natural hazards mortality in the United States

PubMed Central

Borden, Kevin A; Cutter, Susan L

2008-01-01

Background Studies on natural hazard mortality are most often hazard-specific (e.g. floods, earthquakes, heat), event specific (e.g. Hurricane Katrina), or lack adequate temporal or geographic coverage. This makes it difficult to assess mortality from natural hazards in any systematic way. This paper examines the spatial patterns of natural hazard mortality at the county-level for the U.S. from 1970–2004 using a combination of geographical and epidemiological methods. Results Chronic everyday hazards such as severe weather (summer and winter) and heat account for the majority of natural hazard fatalities. The regions most prone to deaths from natural hazards are the South and intermountain west, but sub-regional county-level mortality patterns show more variability. There is a distinct urban/rural component to the county patterns as well as a coastal trend. Significant clusters of high mortality are in the lower Mississippi Valley, upper Great Plains, and Mountain West, with additional areas in west Texas, and the panhandle of Florida, Significant clusters of low mortality are in the Midwest and urbanized Northeast. Conclusion There is no consistent source of hazard mortality data, yet improvements in existing databases can produce quality data that can be incorporated into spatial epidemiological studies as demonstrated in this paper. It is important to view natural hazard mortality through a geographic lens so as to better inform the public living in such hazard prone areas, but more importantly to inform local emergency practitioners who must plan for and respond to disasters in their community. PMID:19091058

Integrating Real-time Earthquakes into Natural Hazard Courses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furlong, K. P.; Benz, H. M.; Whitlock, J. S.; Bittenbinder, A. N.; Bogaert, B. B.

2001-12-01

Natural hazard courses are playing an increasingly important role in college and university earth science curricula. Students' intrinsic curiosity about the subject and the potential to make the course relevant to the interests of both science and non-science students make natural hazards courses popular additions to a department's offerings. However, one vital aspect of "real-life" natural hazard management that has not translated well into the classroom is the real-time nature of both events and response. The lack of a way to entrain students into the event/response mode has made implementing such real-time activities into classroom activities problematic. Although a variety of web sites provide near real-time postings of natural hazards, students essentially learn of the event after the fact. This is particularly true for earthquakes and other events with few precursors. As a result, the "time factor" and personal responsibility associated with natural hazard response is lost to the students. We have integrated the real-time aspects of earthquake response into two natural hazard courses at Penn State (a 'general education' course for non-science majors, and an upper-level course for science majors) by implementing a modification of the USGS Earthworm system. The Earthworm Database Management System (E-DBMS) catalogs current global seismic activity. It provides earthquake professionals with real-time email/cell phone alerts of global seismic activity and access to the data for review/revision purposes. We have modified this system so that real-time response can be used to address specific scientific, policy, and social questions in our classes. As a prototype of using the E-DBMS in courses, we have established an Earthworm server at Penn State. This server receives national and global seismic network data and, in turn, transmits the tailored alerts to "on-duty" students (e-mail, pager/cell phone notification). These students are responsible to react to the alarm

Enhanced photocurrent density of HTM-free perovskite solar cells by carbon quantum dots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Haiyuan; Guo, Daipeng; He, Bowen; Yu, Jiaguo; Fan, Ke

2018-02-01

Full-printable and hole transport material (HTM)-free perovskite solar cells (PSCs) with carbon counter electrodes feature high stability and low cost. However, the perovskite film prepared by conventional one-step solution-coating method always shows a relatively poor coverage on the substrate, leading to the limit of the photocurrent density. In this study, we incorporated carbon quantum dots (CQDs) in the perovskite films, and investigated their effects on the performance of TiO2 nanosheet-based and HTM-free PSCs. It was found that the addition of CQDs to the perovskite film can enhance the photocurrent density of PSCs, and the optimal PSC with 0.1% CQDs evolved 60% higher photocurrent density than the pristine one. The improved photocurrent density was attributed to the heterogeneous nuclei derived from CQDs during perovskite crystallization, which would increase amount of perovskite nuclei and form a fine perovskite grain, leading to a better coverage on the substrate. Moreover, due to the excellent conductivity, CQDs in perovskite films could efficiently transport the photo-excited electrons, accelerating the separation and mobilization of charge carriers. This study presents the incorporation of CQDs in perovskite as an efficient approach to promote the performance of HTM-free PSCs.

Reviewing and visualizing the interactions of natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel C.; Malamud, Bruce D.

2014-12-01

This paper presents a broad overview, characterization, and visualization of the interaction relationships between 21 natural hazards, drawn from six hazard groups (geophysical, hydrological, shallow Earth, atmospheric, biophysical, and space hazards). A synthesis is presented of the identified interaction relationships between these hazards, using an accessible visual format particularly suited to end users. Interactions considered are primarily those where a primary hazard triggers or increases the probability of secondary hazards occurring. In this paper we do the following: (i) identify, through a wide-ranging review of grey- and peer-review literature, 90 interactions; (ii) subdivide the interactions into three levels, based on how well we can characterize secondary hazards, given information about the primary hazard; (iii) determine the spatial overlap and temporal likelihood of the triggering relationships occurring; and (iv) examine the relationship between primary and secondary hazard intensities for each identified hazard interaction and group these into five possible categories. In this study we have synthesized, using accessible visualization techniques, large amounts of information drawn from many scientific disciplines. We outline the importance of constraining hazard interactions and reinforce the importance of a holistic (or multihazard) approach to natural hazard assessment. This approach allows those undertaking research into single hazards to place their work within the context of other hazards. It also communicates important aspects of hazard interactions, facilitating an effective analysis by those working on reducing and managing disaster risk within both the policy and practitioner communities.

AGU:Comments Requested on Natural Hazards Position Statement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2004-11-01

Natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, landslides, meteors, space weather, tornadoes, volcanoes, and other geophysical phenomena) are an integral component of our dynamic planet. These can have disastrous effects on vulnerable communities and ecosystems. By understanding how and where hazards occur, what causes them, and what circumstances increase their severity, we can develop effective strategies to reduce their impact. In practice, mitigating hazards requires addressing issues such as real-time monitoring and prediction, emergency preparedness, public education and awareness, post-disaster recovery, engineering, construction practices, land use, and building codes. Coordinated approaches involving scientists, engineers, policy makers, builders, lenders, insurers, news media, educators, relief organizations, and the public are therefore essential to reducing the adverse effects of natural hazards.

Natural hazards and climate change in Dhaka: future trends, social adaptation and informal dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Aßheuer, T.; Simmer, C.; Braun, B.

2009-04-01

Similar to many megacities in the world, Dhaka is regularly threatened by natural hazards. Risks associated with floods and cyclones in particular are expected to increase in the years to come because of global climate change and rapid urbanization. Greater Dhaka is expected to grow from 13.5 million inhabitants in 2007 to 22 million inhabitants by 2025. The vast majority of this growth will take place in informal settlements. Due to the setting of Greater Dhaka in a deltaic plain, the sprawl of slums is primarily taking place in wetlands, swamps and other flood-prone areas. Slum dwellers and informal businesses are vulnerable, but have somehow learned to cope with seasonal floods and developed specific adaptation strategies. An increase of precipitation extremes and tropical cyclones, however, would put considerable stress on the adaptability of the social and economic system. DhakaHazard, a joint research project of the Department of Meteorology at the University of Bonn and the Department of Geography at the University of Cologne, takes up these issues in an interdisciplinary approach. The project, which begun in November 2008, aims to achieve two main objectives: To link analyses of informal social and economic adaptation strategies to models on future climate change and weather extremes. To estimate more accurately the future frequency and magnitude of weather extremes and floods which are crucial for the future adaptability of informal systems. To fulfill these objectives, scientists at the Meteorological Institute are studying the evolution of natural hazards in Bangladesh, while researchers at the Department of Geography are undertaking the task of assessing these hazards from a social point of view. More specifically, the meteorologists are identifying global and regional weather conditions resulting in flooding of the Greater Dhaka region, while possible variations in flood-inducing weather patterns are analyzed by evaluating their frequency and magnitude

Hazards posed by distal ash transport and sedimentation from extreme volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahagian, D. L.; Proussevitch, A. A.; White, C. M.; Klewicki, J.

2016-12-01

Volcanic ash injected into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere poses a significant hazard to aviation and human security as a result of extreme, explosive eruptions. These have occurred in the recent geologic past, and are expected to occur again, now that modern society and its infrastructure is far more vulnerable than ever before. Atmospheric transport, dispersion, and sedimentation of Ash particles is controlled by fundamentally different processes than control other particles normally transported in the atmosphere due to their complex internal and external morphology. It is thus necessary to elucidate the fundamental processes of particle-fluid interactions in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, where most air traffic resides, and thereby enhance the capability of volcanic ash transport models to predict the ash concentration in distal regions that pose aviation and other hazards. Current Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion (VATD) models use simplistic stokes settling velocities for larger ash particles, and treat smaller ash particles (that are a large part of the hazard) merely as passive tracers. By incorporating the dynamics of fine ash particle-atmosphere interactions into existing VATD models provides the foundation for a much more accurate assessment framework applied to the hazard posed by specific future extreme eruptions, and thus dramatically reduce both the risk to air traffic and the cost of airport and flight closures, in addition to human health, water quality, agricultural, infrastructure hazards, as well as ice cap albedo and short term climate impacts.

Assessing natural hazard risk using images and data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mccullough, H. L.; Dunbar, P. K.; Varner, J. D.; Mungov, G.

2012-12-01

Photographs and other visual media provide valuable pre- and post-event data for natural hazard assessment. Scientific research, mitigation, and forecasting rely on visual data for risk analysis, inundation mapping and historic records. Instrumental data only reveal a portion of the whole story; photographs explicitly illustrate the physical and societal impacts from the event. Visual data is rapidly increasing as the availability of portable high resolution cameras and video recorders becomes more attainable. Incorporating these data into archives ensures a more complete historical account of events. Integrating natural hazards data, such as tsunami, earthquake and volcanic eruption events, socio-economic information, and tsunami deposits and runups along with images and photographs enhances event comprehension. Global historic databases at NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) consolidate these data, providing the user with easy access to a network of information. NGDC's Natural Hazards Image Database (ngdc.noaa.gov/hazardimages) was recently improved to provide a more efficient and dynamic user interface. It uses the Google Maps API and Keyhole Markup Language (KML) to provide geographic context to the images and events. Descriptive tags, or keywords, have been applied to each image, enabling easier navigation and discovery. In addition, the Natural Hazards Map Viewer (maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/hazards) provides the ability to search and browse data layers on a Mercator-projection globe with a variety of map backgrounds. This combination of features creates a simple and effective way to enhance our understanding of hazard events and risks using imagery.

40 CFR 355.12 - What quantities of extremely hazardous substances trigger emergency planning requirements?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... EMERGENCY PLANNING AND NOTIFICATION Emergency Planning Who Must Comply § 355.12 What quantities of extremely... 40 Protection of Environment 27 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What quantities of extremely hazardous substances trigger emergency planning requirements? 355.12 Section 355.12 Protection of Environment...

Transportation system vulnerability and resilience to extreme weather events and other natural hazards report for pilot project - KYTC District 1.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-09-01

This researchs objective is to assist the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet (KYTC) in its efforts to : develop strategies to address natural hazard vulnerabilities and improve the resiliency of : Kentuckys transportation infrastructure. Recent fe...

GeoProMT: A Collaborative Platform Supporting Natural Hazards Project Management From Assessment to Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renschler, C.; Sheridan, M. F.; Patra, A. K.

2008-05-01

The impact and consequences of extreme geophysical events (hurricanes, floods, wildfires, volcanic flows, mudflows, etc.) on properties and processes should be continuously assessed by a well-coordinated interdisciplinary research and outreach approach addressing risk assessment and resilience. Communication between various involved disciplines and stakeholders is the key to a successful implementation of an integrated risk management plan. These issues become apparent at the level of decision support tools for extreme events/disaster management in natural and managed environments. The Geospatial Project Management Tool (GeoProMT) is a collaborative platform for research and training to document and communicate the fundamental steps in transforming information for extreme events at various scales for analysis and management. GeoProMT is an internet-based interface for the management of shared geo-spatial and multi-temporal information such as measurements, remotely sensed images, and other GIS data. This tool enhances collaborative research activities and the ability to assimilate data from diverse sources by integrating information management. This facilitates a better understanding of natural processes and enhances the integrated assessment of resilience against both the slow and fast onset of hazard risks. Fundamental to understanding and communicating complex natural processes are: (a) representation of spatiotemporal variability, extremes, and uncertainty of environmental properties and processes in the digital domain, (b) transformation of their spatiotemporal representation across scales (e.g. interpolation, aggregation, disaggregation.) during data processing and modeling in the digital domain, and designing and developing tools for (c) geo-spatial data management, and (d) geo-spatial process modeling and effective implementation, and (e) supporting decision- and policy-making in natural resources and hazard management at various spatial and temporal scales

Natural hazard fatalities in Switzerland from 1946 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres, Norina; Badoux, Alexandre; Techel, Frank

2017-04-01

Switzerland, located in the middle of the Alps, is prone to several different natural hazards which regularly cause fatalities. To explore temporal trends as well as demographic and spatial patterns in the number of natural hazard fatalities, a database comprising all natural hazard events causing fatalities was compiled for the years 1946 until 2015. The new database includes avalanche, flood, lightning, windstorm, landslide, debris flow, rockfall, earthquake and ice avalanche processes. Two existing databases were incorporated and the resulting dataset extended by a comprehensive newspaper search. In total the database contains 635 natural hazard events causing 1023 fatalities. The database does not include victims which exposed themselves to an important danger on purpose (e.g. high risk sports). The most common causes of death were snow avalanches (37 %), followed by lightning (16 %), floods (12 %), windstorms (10 %), rockfall (8 %), landslides (7 %) and other processes (9 %). Around 14.6 fatalities occurred on average each year. A distinct decrease of natural hazard fatalities could be shown over the last 70 years, which was mostly due to the decline in the number of avalanche and lightning fatalities. Thus, nearly three times as many people were killed by natural hazard processes from 1946 to 1980 than from 1981 to 2015. Normalisation of fatality data by population resulted in a clearly declining annual crude mortality rate: 3.9 deaths per million persons for the first 35 years and 1.1 deaths per million persons for the second 35 years of the study period. The average age of the victims was approximately 36 years and about 75% were males. Most people were killed in summer (JJA, 42%) and winter (DJF, 32 %). Furthermore, almost two-thirds of the fatalities took place in the afternoon and evening. The spatial distribution of the natural hazard fatalities over Switzerland was quite homogeneous. However, mountainous parts of the country (Prealps, Alps) were

Natural hazard fatalities in Switzerland from 1946 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badoux, Alexandre; Andres, Norina; Techel, Frank; Hegg, Christoph

2016-12-01

A database of fatalities caused by natural hazard processes in Switzerland was compiled for the period between 1946 and 2015. Using information from the Swiss flood and landslide damage database and the Swiss destructive avalanche database, the data set was extended back in time and more hazard processes were added by conducting an in-depth search of newspaper reports. The new database now covers all natural hazards common in Switzerland, categorised into seven process types: flood, landslide, rockfall, lightning, windstorm, avalanche and other processes (e.g. ice avalanches, earthquakes). Included were all fatal accidents associated with natural hazard processes in which victims did not expose themselves to an important danger on purpose. The database contains information on 635 natural hazard events causing 1023 fatalities, which corresponds to a mean of 14.6 victims per year. The most common causes of death were snow avalanches (37 %), followed by lightning (16 %), floods (12 %), windstorms (10 %), rockfall (8 %), landslides (7 %) and other processes (9 %). About 50 % of all victims died in one of the 507 single-fatality events; the other half were killed in the 128 multi-fatality events. The number of natural hazard fatalities that occurred annually during our 70-year study period ranged from 2 to 112 and exhibited a distinct decrease over time. While the number of victims in the first three decades (until 1975) ranged from 191 to 269 per decade, it ranged from 47 to 109 in the four following decades. This overall decrease was mainly driven by a considerable decline in the number of avalanche and lightning fatalities. About 75 % of victims were males in all natural hazard events considered together, and this ratio was roughly maintained in all individual process categories except landslides (lower) and other processes (higher). The ratio of male to female victims was most likely to be balanced when deaths occurred at home (in or near a building), a situation

Playing against nature: improving earthquake hazard mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, S. A.; Stein, J.

2012-12-01

The great 2011 Tohoku earthquake dramatically demonstrated the need to improve earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation policies. The earthquake was much larger than predicted by hazard models, and the resulting tsunami overtopped coastal defenses, causing more than 15,000 deaths and $210 billion damage. Hence if and how such defenses should be rebuilt is a challenging question, because the defences fared poorly and building ones to withstand tsunamis as large as March's is too expensive,. A similar issue arises along the Nankai Trough to the south, where new estimates warning of tsunamis 2-5 times higher than in previous models raise the question of what to do, given that the timescale on which such events may occur is unknown. Thus in the words of economist H. Hori, "What should we do in face of uncertainty? Some say we should spend our resources on present problems instead of wasting them on things whose results are uncertain. Others say we should prepare for future unknown disasters precisely because they are uncertain". Thus society needs strategies to mitigate earthquake and tsunami hazards that make economic and societal sense, given that our ability to assess these hazards is poor, as illustrated by highly destructive earthquakes that often occur in areas predicted by hazard maps to be relatively safe. Conceptually, we are playing a game against nature "of which we still don't know all the rules" (Lomnitz, 1989). Nature chooses tsunami heights or ground shaking, and society selects the strategy to minimize the total costs of damage plus mitigation costs. As in any game of chance, we maximize our expectation value by selecting the best strategy, given our limited ability to estimate the occurrence and effects of future events. We thus outline a framework to find the optimal level of mitigation by balancing its cost against the expected damages, recognizing the uncertainties in the hazard estimates. This framework illustrates the role of the

An overview of natural hazard impacts to railways and urban transportation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bíl, Michal; Nezval, Vojtěch; Bílová, Martina; Andrášik, Richard; Kubeček, Jan

2017-04-01

We present an overview and two case studies of natural hazard impacts on rail transportation systems in the Czech Republic. Flooding, landsliding, heavy snowfall, windstorms and glaze (black ice) are the most common natural processes which occur in this region. Whereas flooding and landsliding usually cause direct damage to the transportation infrastructure, other hazards predominantly cause indirect losses. Railway and urban tramline networks are almost fully dependent on electricity which is provided by a system of overhead lines (electric lines above the tracks). These lines are extremely susceptible to formation of glaze which blocks conduction of electric current. A December 2014 glaze event caused significant indirect losses in the largest Czech cities and railways due to the above-mentioned process. Details of this event will be provided during the presentation. Windstorms usually cause tree falls which can affect overhead lines and physically block railway tracks. Approximately 30 % of the Czech railway network is closer than 50 m from the nearest forest. This presents significant potential for transport interruption due to falling trees. Complicated legal relations among the owners of the plots of land along railways, the environment (full-grown trees and related habitat), and the railway administrator are behind many traffic interruptions due to falling trees. We have registered 2040 tree falls between 2012 and 2015 on the railway network. A model of the fallen tree hazard was created for the entire Czech railway network. Both above-mentioned case studies provide illustrative examples of the increased fragility of the modern transportation systems which fully rely on electricity. Natural processes with a low destructive power are thereby able to cause network wide service cut-offs.

Statistical Interpretation of Natural and Technological Hazards in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borthwick, Alistair, ,, Prof.; Ni, Jinren, ,, Prof.

2010-05-01

China is prone to catastrophic natural hazards from floods, droughts, earthquakes, storms, cyclones, landslides, epidemics, extreme temperatures, forest fires, avalanches, and even tsunami. This paper will list statistics related to the six worst natural disasters in China over the past 100 or so years, ranked according to number of fatalities. The corresponding data for the six worst natural disasters in China over the past decade will also be considered. [The data are abstracted from the International Disaster Database, Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium, http://www.cred.be/ where a disaster is defined as occurring if one of the following criteria is fulfilled: 10 or more people reported killed; 100 or more people reported affected; a call for international assistance; or declaration of a state of emergency.] The statistics include the number of occurrences of each type of natural disaster, the number of deaths, the number of people affected, and the cost in billions of US dollars. Over the past hundred years, the largest disasters may be related to the overabundance or scarcity of water, and to earthquake damage. However, there has been a substantial relative reduction in fatalities due to water related disasters over the past decade, even though the overall numbers of people affected remain huge, as does the economic damage. This change is largely due to the efforts put in by China's water authorities to establish effective early warning systems, the construction of engineering countermeasures for flood protection, the implementation of water pricing and other measures for reducing excessive consumption during times of drought. It should be noted that the dreadful death toll due to the Sichuan Earthquake dominates recent data. Joint research has been undertaken between the Department of Environmental Engineering at Peking University and the Department of Engineering Science at Oxford

44 CFR 65.16 - Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and Instructions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance.... Finally, the form is available through the Internet at http://www.fema.gov/nfip/mpurfi.htm. [63 FR 27857...

44 CFR 65.16 - Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and Instructions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance.... Finally, the form is available through the Internet at http://www.fema.gov/nfip/mpurfi.htm. [63 FR 27857...

44 CFR 65.16 - Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and Instructions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance.... Finally, the form is available through the Internet at http://www.fema.gov/nfip/mpurfi.htm. [63 FR 27857...

a model based on crowsourcing for detecting natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, J.; Ma, C.; Zhang, J.; Liu, S.; Liu, J.

2015-12-01

Remote Sensing Technology provides a new method for the detecting,early warning,mitigation and relief of natural hazards. Given the suddenness and the unpredictability of the location of natural hazards as well as the actual demands for hazards work, this article proposes an evaluation model for remote sensing detecting of natural hazards based on crowdsourcing. Firstly, using crowdsourcing model and with the help of the Internet and the power of hundreds of millions of Internet users, this evaluation model provides visual interpretation of high-resolution remote sensing images of hazards area and collects massive valuable disaster data; secondly, this evaluation model adopts the strategy of dynamic voting consistency to evaluate the disaster data provided by the crowdsourcing workers; thirdly, this evaluation model pre-estimates the disaster severity with the disaster pre-evaluation model based on regional buffers; lastly, the evaluation model actuates the corresponding expert system work according to the forecast results. The idea of this model breaks the boundaries between geographic information professionals and the public, makes the public participation and the citizen science eventually be realized, and improves the accuracy and timeliness of hazards assessment results.

A UAV System for Observing Volcanoes and Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saggiani, G.; Persiani, F.; Ceruti, A.; Tortora, P.; Troiani, E.; Giuletti, F.; Amici, S.; Buongiorno, M.; Distefano, G.; Bentini, G.; Bianconi, M.; Cerutti, A.; Nubile, A.; Sugliani, S.; Chiarini, M.; Pennestri, G.; Petrini, S.; Pieri, D.

2007-12-01

Fixed or rotary wing manned aircraft are currently the most commonly used platforms for airborne reconnaissance in response to natural hazards, such as volcanic eruptions, oil spills, wild fires, earthquakes. Such flights are very often undertaken in hazardous flying conditions (e.g., turbulence, downdrafts, reduced visibility, close proximity to dangerous terrain) and can be expensive. To mitigate these two fundamental issues-- safety and cost--we are exploring the use of small (less than 100kg), relatively inexpensive, but effective, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for this purpose. As an operational test, in 2004 we flew a small autonomous UAV in the airspace above and around Stromboli Volcano. Based in part on this experience, we are adapting the RAVEN UAV system for such natural hazard surveillance missions. RAVEN has a 50km range, with a 3.5m wingspan, main fuselage length of 4.60m, and maximum weight of 56kg. It has autonomous flight capability and a ground control Station for the mission planning and control. It will carry a variety of imaging devices, including a visible camera, and an IR camera. It will also carry an experimental Fourier micro-interferometer based on MOEMS technology, (developed by IMM Institute of CNR), to detect atmospheric trace gases. Such flexible, capable, and easy-to-deploy UAV systems may significantly shorten the time necessary to characterize the nature and scale of the natural hazard threats if used from the outset of, and systematically during, natural hazard events. When appropriately utilized, such UAVs can provide a powerful new hazard mitigation and documentation tool for civil protection hazard responders. This research was carried out under the auspices of the Italian government, and, in part, under contract to NASA at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Assessment of social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, Dipendra

2017-12-01

This paper investigates district-wide social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal. Disasters such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, epidemics, and droughts are common in Nepal. Every year thousands of people are killed and huge economic and environmental losses occur in Nepal due to various natural hazards. Although natural hazards are well recognized, quantitative and qualitative social vulnerability mapping has not existed until now in Nepal. This study aims to quantify the social vulnerability on a local scale, considering all 75 districts using the available census. To perform district-level vulnerability mapping, 13 variables were selected and aggregated indexes were plotted in an ArcGIS environment. The sum of results shows that only 4 districts in Nepal have a very low social vulnerability index whereas 46 districts (61 %) are at moderate to high social vulnerability levels. Vulnerability mapping highlights the immediate need for decentralized frameworks to tackle natural hazards in district level; additionally, the results of this study can contribute to preparedness, planning and resource management, inter-district coordination, contingency planning, and public awareness efforts.

Natural and Man-Made Hazards in the Cayman Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novelo-Casanova, D. A.; Suarez, G.

2010-12-01

Located in the western Caribbean Sea to the northwest of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands are a British overseas territory comprised of three islands: Grand Cayman, Cayman Brac, and Little Cayman. These three islands occupy around 250 km2 of land area. In this work, historical and recent data were collected and classified to identify and rank the natural and man-made hazards that may potentially affect the Cayman Islands and determine the level of exposure of Grand Cayman to these events. With this purpose, we used the vulnerability assessment methodology developed by the North Caroline Department of Environment and Natural Resources. The different degrees of physical vulnerability for each hazard were graphically interpreted with the aid of maps using a relative scoring system. Spatial maps were generated showing the areas of different levels of exposure to multi-hazards. The more important natural hazard to which the Cayman Islands are exposed is clearly hurricanes. To a lesser degree, the islands may be occasionally exposed to earthquakes and tsunamis. Explosions or leaks of the Airport Texaco Fuel Depot and the fuel pipeline at Grand Cayman are the most significant man-made hazards. Our results indicate that there are four areas in Grand Cayman with various levels of exposure to natural and man-made hazards: The North Sound, Little Sound and Eastern West Bay (Area 1) show a very high level of exposure; The Central Mangroves, Central Bodden Town, Central George Town and the West Bay (Area 2) have high level of exposure; The Northwestern West Bay, Western Georgetown-Bodden Town, and East End-North Side (Area 3) are under moderate levels of exposure. The remainder of the island shows low exposure (Area 4). It is important to underline that this study presents a first evaluation of the main natural and man-made hazards that may affect the Cayman Islands. The maps generated will be useful tools for emergency managers and policy developers and will increase the overall

Extreme-event geoelectric hazard maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.; Bedrosian, P.

2017-12-01

Maps covering about half of the continental United States are presented of geoelectric field amplitude that will be exceeded, on average, once per century in response to extreme-intensity geomagnetic disturbance. These maps are constructed using an empirical parameterization of induction: convolving latitude-dependent statistical maps of extreme-value geomagnetic disturbance, obtained from decades of 1-minute magnetic observatory data, with local estimates of Earth-surface impedance, obtained at discrete geographic sites from magnetotelluric surveys. Geoelectric amplitudes are estimated for geomagnetic waveforms having 240-s (and 1200-s) sinusoidal period and amplitudes over 10 minutes (1-hr) that exceed a once-per-century threshold. As a result of the combination of geographic differences in geomagnetic variation and Earth-surface impedance, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes span more than two orders of magnitude and are a highly granular function of location. Specifically: for north-south 240-s induction, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes across large parts of the United States have a median value of 0.34 V/km; for east-west variation, they have a median value of 0.23 V/km. In Northern Minnesota, amplitudes exceed 14.00 V/km for north-south geomagnetic variation (23.34 V/km for east-west variation), while just over 100 km away, amplitudes are only 0.08 V/km (0.02 V/km). At some sites in the Northern Central United States, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes exceed the 2 V/km realized in Quebec during the March 1989 storm. These hazard maps are incomplete over large parts of the United States, including major population centers in the southern United States, due to a lack of publically available impedance data.

Are Global Economic Losses from Natural Hazards Increasing?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMullan, Caroline; Simic, Milan; Tosco, Antonello; Latchman, Shane

2016-04-01

Global society has long been influenced by natural hazards, but it has been widely noted that the economic cost of natural hazards has been rising rapidly over recent decades. This upward trend highlights the increasing exposure of the global economy to natural hazards and the need for society to understand the driving factors to help improve the resilience of communities. However disaster risk is driven by a plethora of factors, including population, wealth, land-use, and demographics. Consider also the natural variability in the frequency and severity of events, climate change, and implementation of resilience policies, and it becomes clear that disaster-risk management is a challenging field. To investigate the apparent upward trend in reported annual economic losses from natural disasters, socioeconomic factors known to influence the magnitude of losses must first be accounted for. Adjustment for these factors, known as loss normalisation, aims to estimate the losses sustained if historical events were to impact present day society. We have undertaken a detailed assessment of global economic losses from natural disasters for the period 1995 through 2013. Although the studied time-period is relatively short, expanding the investigated period would not necessarily produce more reliable insights owing to the inherent difficulty in obtaining accurate economic loss estimates for earlier periods and the challenge of finding consistent and reliable sources of socioeconomic data for the normalisation process. The results of the study, presented at a global and regional level, appear to suggest that the main driver of perceived increase in economic losses over the last ~20 years was the development of nations' economies (i.e. increase in population and wealth/GDP) and not in the natural hazards themselves. As populations all over the world migrate into areas of higher natural hazards regions (e.g. coastal areas or floodplain zones) and global wealth continues to

Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST): A Framework for Analyzing Compounding Effects of Multiple Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadegh, M.; Moftakhari, H.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Many natural hazards are driven by multiple forcing variables, and concurrence/consecutive extreme events significantly increases risk of infrastructure/system failure. It is a common practice to use univariate analysis based upon a perceived ruling driver to estimate design quantiles and/or return periods of extreme events. A multivariate analysis, however, permits modeling simultaneous occurrence of multiple forcing variables. In this presentation, we introduce the Multi-hazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST) that comprehensively analyzes marginal and joint probability distributions of natural hazards. MhAST also offers a wide range of scenarios of return period and design levels and their likelihoods. Contribution of this study is four-fold: 1. comprehensive analysis of marginal and joint probability of multiple drivers through 17 continuous distributions and 26 copulas, 2. multiple scenario analysis of concurrent extremes based upon the most likely joint occurrence, one ruling variable, and weighted random sampling of joint occurrences with similar exceedance probabilities, 3. weighted average scenario analysis based on a expected event, and 4. uncertainty analysis of the most likely joint occurrence scenario using a Bayesian framework.

Natural disasters and the challenge of extreme events: risk management from an insurance perspective.

PubMed

Smolka, Anselm

2006-08-15

Loss statistics for natural disasters demonstrate, also after correction for inflation, a dramatic increase of the loss burden since 1950. This increase is driven by a concentration of population and values in urban areas, the development of highly exposed coastal and valley regions, the complexity of modern societies and technologies and probably, also by the beginning consequences of global warming. This process will continue unless remedial action will be taken. Managing the risk from natural disasters starts with identification of the hazards. The next step is the evaluation of the risk, where risk is a function of hazard, exposed values or human lives and the vulnerability of the exposed objects. Probabilistic computer models have been developed for the proper assessment of risks since the late 1980s. The final steps are controlling and financing future losses. Natural disaster insurance plays a key role in this context, but also private parties and governments have to share a part of the risk. A main responsibility of governments is to formulate regulations for building construction and land use. The insurance sector and the state have to act together in order to create incentives for building and business owners to take loss prevention measures. A further challenge for the insurance sector is to transfer a portion of the risk to the capital markets, and to serve better the needs of the poor. Catastrophe bonds and microinsurance are the answer to such challenges. The mechanisms described above have been developed to cope with well-known disasters like earthquakes, windstorms and floods. They can be applied, in principle, also to less well investigated and less frequent extreme disasters: submarine slides, great volcanic eruptions, meteorite impacts and tsunamis which may arise from all these hazards. But there is an urgent need to improve the state of knowledge on these more exotic hazards in order to reduce the high uncertainty in actual risk evaluation to

Natural disasters and the challenge of extreme events: risk management from an insurance perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, Anselm

2006-08-01

Loss statistics for natural disasters demonstrate, also after correction for inflation, a dramatic increase of the loss burden since 1950. This increase is driven by a concentration of population and values in urban areas, the development of highly exposed coastal and valley regions, the complexity of modern societies and technologies and probably, also by the beginning consequences of global warming. This process will continue unless remedial action will be taken. Managing the risk from natural disasters starts with identification of the hazards. The next step is the evaluation of the risk, where risk is a function of hazard, exposed values or human lives and the vulnerability of the exposed objects. Probabilistic computer models have been developed for the proper assessment of risks since the late 1980s. The final steps are controlling and financing future losses. Natural disaster insurance plays a key role in this context, but also private parties and governments have to share a part of the risk. A main responsibility of governments is to formulate regulations for building construction and land use. The insurance sector and the state have to act together in order to create incentives for building and business owners to take loss prevention measures. A further challenge for the insurance sector is to transfer a portion of the risk to the capital markets, and to serve better the needs of the poor. Catastrophe bonds and microinsurance are the answer to such challenges. The mechanisms described above have been developed to cope with well-known disasters like earthquakes, windstorms and floods. They can be applied, in principle, also to less well investigated and less frequent extreme disasters: submarine slides, great volcanic eruptions, meteorite impacts and tsunamis which may arise from all these hazards. But there is an urgent need to improve the state of knowledge on these more exotic hazards in order to reduce the high uncertainty in actual risk evaluation to

Perception of Natural Hazards and Risk among University of Washington Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herr, K.; Brand, B.; Hamlin, N.; Ou, J.; Thomas, B.; Tudor, E.

2012-12-01

Familiarity with a given population's perception of natural hazards and the threats they present is vital for the development of effective education prior to and emergency management response after a natural event. While much work has been done in other active tectonic regions, perception of natural hazards and risk among Pacific Northwest (PNW) residents is poorly constrained. The objective of this work is to assess the current perception of earthquake and volcanic hazards and risk in the PNW, and to better understand the factors which drive the public's behavior concerning preparedness and response. We developed a survey to assess the knowledge of natural hazards common to the region, their perception of risk concerning these hazards, and their level of preparedness should a natural hazard occur. The survey was distributed to University of Washington students and employees via an internet link as part of a class project in 'Living with Volcanoes' (ESS 106) in March of 2012, which returned more than 900 responses. The UW student population was chosen as our first "population" to assess because of their uniqueness as a large, semi-transient population (typical residence of less than 5 years). Only 50% of participants correctly reported their proximity to an active volcano, indicating either lack of knowledge of active volcanoes in the region or poor spatial awareness. When asked which area were most at risk to lahars, respondents indicated that all areas close to the hazard source, including topographically elevated regions, were at a higher risk than more distal and low-lying localities that are also at high risk, indicating a lack of knowledge concerning the topographic dependency of this hazard. Participants perceived themselves to be able to cope better with an earthquake than a volcanic event. This perception may be due to lack of knowledge of volcanic hazards and their extent or due to a false sense of security concerning earthquakes fostered by regular

The look of into Desalination and Natural Hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arregoitia Sarabia, C. A.

2012-04-01

naturally dispose their brine waste. However, a desalination plant can be affected by different natural hazards depending on where they are located and therefore they should be considered when determining the optimum site for it. A natural hazard is an unexpected or uncontrollable natural event of unusual intensity that threatens people's lives or their activities. Atmospheric hazards are weather-related events, whereas geologic hazards happen on or within the Earth's surface. However, it is important to understand that the capricious force of nature can trigger catastrophes that could impact households, communities and even threaten life across the world depending on the desalination plant location. Little work has been undertaken so far to explore the impact of desalination technology when a natural event arrives. Therefore, this paper looks at the different desalination technologies and their role and impact when a natural hazard occurs because they can either be a mitigation source for water scarcity or can be turned into a greater disaster. An example is presented Keywords: desalination, water, natural hazards and megacities

44 CFR 65.16 - Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and Instructions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... by the Director as an area having special flood hazards and in which flood insurance under this title.... Finally, the form is available through the Internet at http://www.fema.gov/nfip/mpurfi.htm. [63 FR 27857...

Opinion: The use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Mike Mentis

2015-01-01

Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex...

40 CFR 355.15 - Which threshold planning quantity do I use for an extremely hazardous substance present at my...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Which threshold planning quantity do I use for an extremely hazardous substance present at my facility in solid form? 355.15 Section 355.15... § 355.15 Which threshold planning quantity do I use for an extremely hazardous substance present at my...

Risks to offshore installations in Europe due to natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Necci, Amos; Krausmann, Elisabeth

2017-04-01

contrast, in other parts of the world, and in particular in the Gulf of Mexico, tropical storms are likely to trigger severe direct damage to structures, resulting in platform capsizing, sinking or grounding. The in-depth analysis of the incident records also showed that the natural event was often just the triggering cause of the accident, which was frequently accompanied by contributing factors (e.g. corrosion, fatigue, wrong procedures, etc.). Under these circumstances, not only extreme storms, but also storms with moderate intensity can trigger incidents. Due to the high density of offshore structures and the unique environmental conditions promoting fatigue and corrosion, the North Sea is the area with the highest number of incidents recorded in Europe, as well as the area with the highest number of incidents at semi-submersible units in the world. About 4% of all reported global Natech events at offshore infrastructures involved casualties, and 2.6% for the European incident subset. Hazardous materials releases were documented for 21 events in Europe, resulting in fires and hydrocarbon spills polluting the sea. Furthermore, a surprisingly high number of severe events occurred during towing which highlights the impact of natural hazards on the safety of offshore transfer operations.

Risk Perception and the Psychology of Natural Hazard Preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, K. J.; Weber, E. U.

2014-12-01

In the preparedness phase of the disaster cycle, willingness to invest resources in prevention and mitigation doesn't depend only on quantitative judgments of the probability of a disaster. People also evaluate the risks of situations in qualitative ways. Psychological studies of risk perception have shown that risk attitudes toward everyday technologies and activities (e.g., electric power, air travel, smoking) can be mapped onto two orthogonal dimensions: how unknown the risks seem, and how dread or severe they feel. Previously, this psychometric approach to risk perception has focused mostly on man-made risks (e.g., Fischhoff et al. 1978, Slovic 1987). In this paper we examine how natural hazards fit into the established unknown/dread risk space. Hazards that are high on the unknown dimension of risk tend to be perceived as having effects that are unknown to science and to the exposed, uncontrollable, and new. Hazards that rank high on the dread/severity dimension are seen as immediate, catastrophic, highly dreaded on a gut level, new, and likely to be fatal. Perceived risk tends to be highest for hazards that are both high on the dread dimension and low on the unknown dimension. We find that weather-related hazards rank lowest on both dimensions: blizzards, heat waves, hailstorms, fog, and ice storms are all feel very known and not particularly dread. The exception for this group is hurricanes and tornadoes, which are viewed as more similar to geophysical hazards and mass movements: high on dread, though not particularly unknown. Two notable outliers are climate change and sea-level rise, which are both considered very unknown (higher than any other natural hazard save sinkholes), and not at all dread (less dread even than fog and dust storms). But when compared with perceptions of technological hazards, nearly every natural hazard ranks as more dread than any technology or activity, including nuclear power. Man-made hazards fall with technologies, rather than

The risk concept and its application in natural hazard risk management in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bründl, M.; Romang, H. E.; Bischof, N.; Rheinberger, C. M.

2009-05-01

Over the last ten years, a risk-based approach to manage natural hazards - termed the risk concept - has been introduced to the management of natural hazards in Switzerland. Large natural hazard events, new political initiatives and limited financial resources have led to the development and introduction of new planning instruments and software tools that should support natural hazard engineers and planners to effectively and efficiently deal with natural hazards. Our experience with these new instruments suggests an improved integration of the risk concept into the community of natural hazard engineers and planners. Important factors for the acceptance of these new instruments are the integration of end-users during the development process, the knowledge exchange between science, developers and end-users as well as training and education courses for users. Further improvements require the maintenance of this knowledge exchange and a mindful adaptation of the instruments to case-specific circumstances.

Radar image and data fusion for natural hazards characterisation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Zhong; Dzurisin, Daniel; Jung, Hyung-Sup; Zhang, Jixian; Zhang, Yonghong

2010-01-01

Fusion of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images through interferometric, polarimetric and tomographic processing provides an all - weather imaging capability to characterise and monitor various natural hazards. This article outlines interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) processing and products and their utility for natural hazards characterisation, provides an overview of the techniques and applications related to fusion of SAR/InSAR images with optical and other images and highlights the emerging SAR fusion technologies. In addition to providing precise land - surface digital elevation maps, SAR - derived imaging products can map millimetre - scale elevation changes driven by volcanic, seismic and hydrogeologic processes, by landslides and wildfires and other natural hazards. With products derived from the fusion of SAR and other images, scientists can monitor the progress of flooding, estimate water storage changes in wetlands for improved hydrological modelling predictions and assessments of future flood impacts and map vegetation structure on a global scale and monitor its changes due to such processes as fire, volcanic eruption and deforestation. With the availability of SAR images in near real - time from multiple satellites in the near future, the fusion of SAR images with other images and data is playing an increasingly important role in understanding and forecasting natural hazards.

Environmental legislation as the legal framework for mitigating natural hazards in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrido, Jesús; Arana, Estanislao; Jiménez Soto, Ignacio; Delgado, José

2015-04-01

In Spain, the socioeconomic losses due to natural hazards (floods, earthquakes or landslides) are considerable, and the indirect costs associated with them are rarely considered because they are very difficult to evaluate. The prevention of losses due to natural hazards is more economic and efficient through legislation and spatial planning rather than through structural measures, such as walls, anchorages or structural reinforcements. However, there isn't a Spanish natural hazards law and national and regional sector legislation make only sparse mention of them. After 1978, when the Spanish Constitution was enacted, the Autonomous Communities (Spanish regions) were able to legislate according to the different competences (urban planning, environment or civil protection), which were established in the Constitution. In the 1990's, the Civil Protection legislation (national law and regional civil protection tools) dealt specifically with natural hazards (floods, earthquakes and volcanoes), but this was before any soil, seismic or hydrological studies were recommended in the national sector legislation. On the other hand, some Autonomous Communities referred to natural hazards in the Environmental Impact Assessment legislation (EIA) and also in the spatial and urban planning legislation and tools. The National Land Act, enacted in 1998, established, for the first time, that those lands exposed to natural hazards should be classified as non-developable. The Spanish recast text of the Land Act, enacted by Royal Legislative Decree 2/2008, requires that a natural hazards map be included in the Environmental Sustainability Report (ESR), which is compulsory for all master plans, according to the provisions set out by Act 9/2006, known as Spanish Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). Consequently, the environmental legislation, after the aforementioned transposition of the SEA European Directive 2001/42/EC, is the legal framework to prevent losses due to natural hazards

A New Master of Natural Hazards Program at The Australian National University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozgay, S.; Zoleta-Nantes, D.

2009-12-01

The new Master of Natural Hazards program at The Australian National University provides a multi-disciplinary approach to the study and monitoring of geophysical processes that can lead to the recognition of hazards and a consequent reduction of their impacts through emergency measures, disaster plans, and relief and rehabilitation. The program provides people with an understanding of the most up-to-date scientific understanding on the causes of natural hazards, their effects on human societies, and ways to mitigate their impacts and reduce their losses by focusing on Australia and the Asia-Pacific case studies. The Master of Natural Hazards program brings together the expertise of researchers across the university to provide an opportunity for students to do coursework and research projects that will provide them with extensive knowledge of the natural hazards that occur and pose the greatest risks on human communities in the Asia-Pacific, and an understanding of the human dimensions of the natural hazards occurrences. The program consists of two compulsory courses each in the Earth Sciences and in the Social Sciences that are designed to provide a complementary and comprehensive overview of natural hazards issues. Elective courses can be of a general grouping, or students may choose one of four Focus Streams: Environmental and Geographic Studies; Climate Change; Earth Structure and Imaging; or Socio-economic, Development and Policy Studies. A special case study project will involve writing a thesis on a topic to be approved by the Program Conveners and will comprise a body of work on an approved topic in natural hazards in the Asia-Pacific region. Students in this program will gain a broad scientific knowledge and methodological skills to understand the physical causes and frequency of the most important natural hazards in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as the latest scientific methods and best practices of monitoring them for hazard mapping and disaster

Processing LiDAR Data to Predict Natural Hazards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fairweather, Ian; Crabtree, Robert; Hager, Stacey

2008-01-01

ELF-Base and ELF-Hazards (wherein 'ELF' signifies 'Extract LiDAR Features' and 'LiDAR' signifies 'light detection and ranging') are developmental software modules for processing remote-sensing LiDAR data to identify past natural hazards (principally, landslides) and predict future ones. ELF-Base processes raw LiDAR data, including LiDAR intensity data that are often ignored in other software, to create digital terrain models (DTMs) and digital feature models (DFMs) with sub-meter accuracy. ELF-Hazards fuses raw LiDAR data, data from multispectral and hyperspectral optical images, and DTMs and DFMs generated by ELF-Base to generate hazard risk maps. Advanced algorithms in these software modules include line-enhancement and edge-detection algorithms, surface-characterization algorithms, and algorithms that implement innovative data-fusion techniques. The line-extraction and edge-detection algorithms enable users to locate such features as faults and landslide headwall scarps. Also implemented in this software are improved methodologies for identification and mapping of past landslide events by use of (1) accurate, ELF-derived surface characterizations and (2) three LiDAR/optical-data-fusion techniques: post-classification data fusion, maximum-likelihood estimation modeling, and hierarchical within-class discrimination. This software is expected to enable faster, more accurate forecasting of natural hazards than has previously been possible.

Public-private provision of protection measures against natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruber, M.

2009-04-01

Natural hazards threaten human lives as well as economic values of a society. Due to an increasing population density, augmenting property holdings in congested areas as well as higher frequencies of catastrophic events, the damage potential associated with natural hazards is growing. In order to safeguard societal assets against this threat, active and passive protection measures can be established. While passive protection measures provide for this type of risk by means of thorough land use planning, active protection measures aim at improving safety through technical or biological protective systems and structures. However, these provisions are costly and need to be handled prudentially. In most European countries protection measures against natural hazards are provided by the public. Specific governmental funds have been set up for the establishment of preventive systems as well as for damage compensation payments after the occurrence of catastrophic events. Though, additional capital is urgently needed in order to facilitate the realisation of all necessary projects in this field and to provide for maximal safety. One potential solution for such financial deficiencies can be found in Public Private Partnerships (PPP). PPPs have been implemented as attractive concepts for the funding of diverse projects in the fields of e.g. road construction, municipal, health and social services. In principle, they could also provide alternative funding solutions for the establishment of crucial protective infrastructure in respect of natural hazards, adding private financial means to the currently available public funds. Thereby, the entire capacities for catastrophe funding could be enhanced. Beside PPPs, also alternative funding mechanisms such as the emission of catastrophe bonds, contingent credit lines or leasing arrangements may enhance available capacities for the financing of protection measures. This contribution discusses innovative solutions for the funding of

Coastal vulnerability: climate change and natural hazards perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romieu, E.; Vinchon, C.

2009-04-01

Introduction Studying coastal zones as a territorial concept (Integrated coastal zone management) is an essential issue for managers, as they have to consider many different topics (natural hazards, resources management, tourism, climate change…). The recent approach in terms of "coastal vulnerability" studies (since the 90's) is the main tool used nowadays to help them in evaluating impacts of natural hazards on coastal zones, specially considering climate change. This present communication aims to highlight the difficulties in integrating this concept in risk analysis as it is usually practiced in natural hazards sciences. 1) Coastal vulnerability as a recent issue The concept of coastal vulnerability mainly appears in the International panel on climate change works of 1992 (IPCC. 2001), where it is presented as essential for climate change adaptation. The concept has been defined by a common methodology which proposes the assessment of seven indicators, in regards to a sea level rise of 1m in 2100: people affected, people at risk, capital value at loss, land at loss, wetland at loss, potential adaptation costs, people at risk assuming this adaptation. Many national assessments have been implemented (Nicholls, et al. 1995) and a global assessment was proposed for three indicators (Nicholls, et al. 1999). The DINAS-Coast project reuses this methodology to produce the DIVA-tool for coastal managers (Vafeidis, et al. 2004). Besides, many other methodologies for national or regional coastal vulnerability assessments have been developed (review by (UNFCCC. 2008). The use of aggregated vulnerability indicators (including geomorphology, hydrodynamics, climate change…) is widespread: the USGS coastal vulnerability index is used worldwide and was completed by a social vulnerability index (Boruff, et al. 2005). Those index-based methods propose a vulnerability mapping which visualise indicators of erosion, submersion and/or socio economic sensibility in coastal zones

Natural hazards in Goma and the surrounding villages, East African Rift System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Balagizi, Charles M.; Kies, Antoine; Kasereka, Marcellin M.; Tedesco, Dario; Yalire, Mathieu M.; McCausland, Wendy A.

2018-01-01

The city of Goma and its surrounding villages (Democratic Republic of the Congo, DRC) are among the world’s most densely populated regions strongly affected by volcanic hazards. In 2002, Nyiragongo volcano erupted destroying 10–15% of Goma and forced a mass evacuation of the population. Hence, the ~ 1.5 million inhabitants of Goma and Gisenyi (Rwanda) continue to live with the threat of new lava flows and other eruptive hazards from this volcano. The current network of fractures extends from Nyiragongo summit to Goma and continues beneath Lake Kivu, which gives rise to the fear that an eruption could even produce an active vent within the center of Goma or within the lake. A sub-lacustrine volcanic eruption with vents in the floor of the main basin and/or Kabuno Bay of Lake Kivu could potentially release about 300 km3 of carbon dioxide (CO2) and 60 km3 of methane (CH4) dissolved in its deep waters that would be catastrophic to populations (~ 2.5 million people) along the lake shores. For the time being, ongoing hazards related to Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira volcanoes silently kill people and animals, slowly destroy the environment, and seriously harm the health of the population. They include mazuku (CO2-rich locations where people often die of asphyxiation), the highly fluoridated surface and ground waters, and other locally neglected hazards. The volcanic gas plume causes poor air quality and acid rain, which is commonly used for drinking water. Given the large number of people at risk and the continued movement of people to Goma and the surrounding villages, there is an urgent need for a thorough natural hazards assessment in the region. This paper presents a general view of natural hazards in the region around Goma based on field investigations, CO2 measurements in mazuku, and chemistry data for Lake Kivu, rivers and rainwater. The field investigations and the datasets are used in conjunction with extremely rich-historical (1897–2000) and

Guideline for assessing the performance of electric power systems in natural hazard and human threat events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savage, W.U.; Nishenko, S.P.; Honegger, D.G.; Kempner, L.

2006-01-01

Electric power utilities are familiar with and skilled in preparing for and responding to almost-routine natural hazard events such as strong wind and ice storms and seasonal floods, as well as intentional human acts such as vandalism. Recent extreme weather (hurricanes Katrina and Rita), extremely destructive international earthquakes (in Sumatra and Pakistan), and nation-wide concerns regarding future terrorist attacks have increased the pressure on utilities to take appropriate steps to avoid being overwhelmed by such infrequent and exceedingly severe events. Determining what constitutes the appropriate steps to take requires various levels of understanding of the specific hazards and the risks faced by the utility. The American Lifelines Alliance (www. americanlifelinesalliance.org) has prepared a Guideline that provides clear, concise, and nationally-applicable guidance on determining the scope and level of effort necessary to assess power system performance in the wide range of natural hazard or human threat events. Included in this Guideline are specific procedures to follow and information to consider in performing standardized assessments. With the results of such assessments, utility owners can effectively establish and carry out risk management programs that will lead to achieving appropriate levels of performance in future events. The Guideline incorporates an inquiry-driven process with a two-phase performance assessment that can be applied to power systems of any size. The screening phase enables systems or components that are clearly not at risk to be screened out early. The subsequent analysis phase uses results from the screening phase to prioritize and allocate resources for more detailed assessments of hazard, vulnerability, and system performance. This process helps assure that the scope of the assessment meets the specific performance objectives of the inquiry. A case history is presented to illustrate the type of experience with an inquiry

Volcanic hazard assessment for the Canary Islands (Spain) using extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobradelo, R.; Martí, J.; Mendoza-Rosas, A. T.; Gómez, G.

2011-10-01

The Canary Islands are an active volcanic region densely populated and visited by several millions of tourists every year. Nearly twenty eruptions have been reported through written chronicles in the last 600 yr, suggesting that the probability of a new eruption in the near future is far from zero. This shows the importance of assessing and monitoring the volcanic hazard of the region in order to reduce and manage its potential volcanic risk, and ultimately contribute to the design of appropriate preparedness plans. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of the volcanic eruption time series for the Canary Islands is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk in the area. Such a series describes complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. Here we propose a statistical method for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions which is most appropriate given the nature of the documented historical eruptive data. We first characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes, and then carry out a preliminary analysis of the data to establish the requirements for the statistical method. Past studies in eruptive time series used conventional statistics and treated the series as an homogeneous process. In this paper, we will use a method that accounts for the time-dependence of the series and includes rare or extreme events, in the form of few data of large eruptions, since these data require special methods of analysis. Hence, we will use a statistical method from extreme value theory. In particular, we will apply a non-homogeneous Poisson process to the historical eruptive data of the Canary Islands to estimate the probability of having at least one volcanic event of a magnitude greater than one in the upcoming years. This is done in three steps: First, we analyze the historical eruptive series to assess independence and homogeneity of the process. Second, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose

Managing extreme natural disasters in coastal areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kesavan, P. C.; Swaminathan, M. S.

2006-08-01

Extreme natural hazards, particularly the hydro-meteorological disasters, are emerging as a cause of major concern in the coastal regions of India and a few other developing countries. These have become more frequent in the recent past, and are taking a heavy toll of life and livelihoods. Low level of technology development in the rural areas together with social, economic and gender inequities enhance the vulnerability of the largely illiterate, unskilled, and resource-poor fishing, farming and landless labour communities. Their resilience to bounce back to pre-disaster level of normality is highly limited. For the planet Earth at crossroads, the imminent threat, however, is from a vicious spiral among environmental degradation, poverty and climate change-related natural disasters interacting in a mutually reinforcing manner. These, in turn, retard sustainable development, and also wipe out any small gains made thereof. To counter this unacceptable trend, the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation has developed a biovillage paradigm and rural knowledge centres for ecotechnological and knowledge empowerment of the coastal communities at risk. Frontier science and technologies blended with traditional knowledge and ecological prudence result in ecotechnologies with pro-nature, pro-poor and pro-women orientation. The rural communities are given training and helped to develop capacity to adopt ecotechnologies for market-driven eco-enterprises. The modern information and communication-based rural knowledge centres largely operated by trained semi-literate young women provide time- and locale-specific information on weather, crop and animal husbandry, market trends and prices for local communities, healthcare, transport, education, etc. to the local communities. The ecotechnologies and time- and locale-specific information content development are need-based and chosen in a ‘bottom-up’ manner. The use of recombinant DNA technology for genetic shielding of agricultural

Managing extreme natural disasters in coastal areas.

PubMed

Kesavan, P C; Swaminathan, M S

2006-08-15

Extreme natural hazards, particularly the hydro-meteorological disasters, are emerging as a cause of major concern in the coastal regions of India and a few other developing countries. These have become more frequent in the recent past, and are taking a heavy toll of life and livelihoods. Low level of technology development in the rural areas together with social, economic and gender inequities enhance the vulnerability of the largely illiterate, unskilled, and resource-poor fishing, farming and landless labour communities. Their resilience to bounce back to pre-disaster level of normality is highly limited. For the planet Earth at crossroads, the imminent threat, however, is from a vicious spiral among environmental degradation, poverty and climate change-related natural disasters interacting in a mutually reinforcing manner. These, in turn, retard sustainable development, and also wipe out any small gains made thereof. To counter this unacceptable trend, the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation has developed a biovillage paradigm and rural knowledge centres for ecotechnological and knowledge empowerment of the coastal communities at risk. Frontier science and technologies blended with traditional knowledge and ecological prudence result in ecotechnologies with pro-nature, pro-poor and pro-women orientation. The rural communities are given training and helped to develop capacity to adopt ecotechnologies for market-driven eco-enterprises. The modern information and communication-based rural knowledge centres largely operated by trained semi-literate young women provide time- and locale-specific information on weather, crop and animal husbandry, market trends and prices for local communities, healthcare, transport, education, etc. to the local communities. The ecotechnologies and time- and locale-specific information content development are need-based and chosen in a 'bottom-up' manner. The use of recombinant DNA technology for genetic shielding of agricultural

Natural Hazards Education in the Himalayan Region of Ladakh, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel; Tostevin, Rosalie

2015-04-01

Here we present a review of a geohazards education and engagement project in the Indian region of Ladakh. Located in the Indian Himalaya, Ladakh is home to historically-disadvantaged and endangered indigenous groups. It is also an area of extreme topography, climate and vulnerability, with a growing tourist industry. This combination of factors makes it an important region to improve geohazards understanding and observe the complex interactions between nature, society, and culture. This project: (i) delivered a geoscience education programme, in conjunction with a range of local and international partners, to multiple schools in the region; (ii) utilised interactive demonstrations to teach students about the key physical dynamics of landslides and earthquakes; and (iii) integrated aspects of physical and social science within the teaching, to give students a holistic understanding of natural hazards and disaster risk reduction. In total three programmes were delivered, to a range of different ethnic and socio-economic backgrounds. This presentation will particularly highlight (i) the importance of delivering material in a culturally appropriate way, (ii) challenges regarding the sustainability of delivering high quality geoscience education projects, and (iii) ways in which geoscience education outreach can be mainstreamed into overseas research visits.

Marine natural hazards in coastal zone: observations, analysis and modelling (Plinius Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Didenkulova, Ira

2010-05-01

Giant surface waves approaching the coast frequently cause extensive coastal flooding, destruction of coastal constructions and loss of lives. Such waves can be generated by various phenomena: strong storms and cyclones, underwater earthquakes, high-speed ferries, aerial and submarine landslides. The most famous examples of such events are the catastrophic tsunami in the Indian Ocean, which occurred on 26 December 2004 and hurricane Katrina (28 August 2005) in the Atlantic Ocean. The huge storm in the Baltic Sea on 9 January 2005, which produced unexpectedly long waves in many areas of the Baltic Sea and the influence of unusually high surge created by long waves from high-speed ferries, should also be mentioned as examples of regional marine natural hazards connected with extensive runup of certain types of waves. The processes of wave shoaling and runup for all these different marine natural hazards (tsunami, coastal freak waves, ship waves) are studied based on rigorous solutions of nonlinear shallow-water theory. The key and novel results presented here are: i) parameterization of basic formulas for extreme runup characteristics for bell-shape waves, showing that they weakly depend on the initial wave shape, which is usually unknown in real sea conditions; ii) runup analysis of periodic asymmetric waves with a steep front, as such waves are penetrating inland over large distances and with larger velocities than symmetric waves; iii) statistical analysis of irregular wave runup demonstrating that wave nonlinearity nearshore does not influence on the probability distribution of the velocity of the moving shoreline and its moments, and influences on the vertical displacement of the moving shoreline (runup). Wave runup on convex beaches and in narrow bays, which allow abnormal wave amplification is also discussed. Described analytical results are used for explanation of observed extreme runup of tsunami, freak (sneaker) waves and ship waves on different coasts

Virtual Research Environments for Natural Hazard Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Napier, Hazel; Aldridge, Tim

2017-04-01

The Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP) is a group of 17 collaborating public sector organisations providing a mechanism for co-ordinated advice to government and agencies responsible for civil contingency and emergency response during natural hazard events. The NHP has set up a Hazard Impact Model (HIM) group tasked with modelling the impact of a range of UK hazards with the aim of delivery of consistent hazard and impact information. The HIM group consists of 7 partners initially concentrating on modelling the socio-economic impact of 3 key hazards - surface water flooding, land instability and high winds. HIM group partners share scientific expertise and data within their specific areas of interest including hydrological modelling, meteorology, engineering geology, GIS, data delivery, and modelling of socio-economic impacts. Activity within the NHP relies on effective collaboration between partners distributed across the UK. The NHP are acting as a use case study for a new Virtual Research Environment (VRE) being developed by the EVER-EST project (European Virtual Environment for Research - Earth Science Themes: a solution). The VRE is allowing the NHP to explore novel ways of cooperation including improved capabilities for e-collaboration, e-research, automation of processes and e-learning. Collaboration tools are complemented by the adoption of Research Objects, semantically rich aggregations of resources enabling the creation of uniquely identified digital artefacts resulting in reusable science and research. Application of the Research Object concept to HIM development facilitates collaboration, by encapsulating scientific knowledge in a shareable format that can be easily shared and used by partners working on the same model but within their areas of expertise. This paper describes the application of the VRE to the NHP use case study. It outlines the challenges associated with distributed partnership working and how they are being addressed in the VRE. A case

Decision-support systems for natural-hazards and land-management issues

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinitz, Laura; Forney, William; Byrd, Kristin

2012-01-01

Scientists at the USGS Western Geographic Science Center are developing decision-support systems (DSSs) for natural-hazards and land-management issues. DSSs are interactive computer-based tools that use data and models to help identify and solve problems. These systems can provide crucial support to policymakers, planners, and communities for making better decisions about long-term natural hazards mitigation and land-use planning.

Natural hazard metaphors for financial crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Gordon

2001-02-01

Linguistic metaphors drawn from natural hazards are commonly used at times of financial crisis. A brewing storm, a seismic shock, etc., evoke the abruptness and severity of a market collapse. If the language of windstorms, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions is helpful in illustrating a financial crisis, what about the mathematics of natural catastrophes? Already, earthquake prediction methods have been applied to economic recessions, and volcanic eruption forecasting techniques have been applied to market crashes. The purpose of this contribution is to survey broadly the mathematics of natural catastrophes, so as to convey the range of underlying principles, some of which may serve as mathematical metaphors for financial applications.

Hazards and hazard combinations relevant for the safety of nuclear power plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decker, Kurt; Brinkman, Hans; Raimond, Emmanuel

2017-04-01

The potential of the contemporaneous impact of different, yet causally related, hazardous events and event cascades on nuclear power plants is a major contributor to the overall risk of nuclear installations. In the aftermath of the Fukushima accident, which was caused by a combination of severe ground shaking by an earthquake, an earthquake-triggered tsunami and the disruption of the plants from the electrical grid by a seismically induced landslide, hazard combinations and hazard cascades moved into the focus of nuclear safety research. We therefore developed an exhaustive list of external hazards and hazard combinations which pose potential threats to nuclear installations in the framework of the European project ASAMPSAE (Advanced Safety Assessment: Extended PSA). The project gathers 31 partners from Europe, North Amerika and Japan. The list comprises of exhaustive lists of natural hazards, external man-made hazards, and a cross-correlation matrix of these hazards. The hazard list is regarded comprehensive by including all types of hazards that were previously cited in documents by IAEA, the Western European Nuclear Regulators Association (WENRA), and others. 73 natural hazards and 24 man-made external hazards are included. Natural hazards are grouped into seismotectonic hazards, flooding and hydrological hazards, extreme values of meteorological phenomena, rare meteorological phenomena, biological hazards / infestation, geological hazards, and forest fire / wild fire. The list of external man-made hazards includes industry accidents, military accidents, transportation accidents, pipeline accidents and other man-made external events. The large number of different hazards results in the extremely large number of 5.151 theoretically possible hazard combinations (not considering hazard cascades). In principle all of these combinations are possible to occur by random coincidence except for 82 hazard combinations that - depending on the time scale - are mutually

Integrated Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards in Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

2012-12-01

An integrated risk assessment includes the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such as baseline study, hazard identification and categorization, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand adverse impacts from multiple stressors to which they are exposed. These impacts are due to characteristics inherent in social interactions, institutions, and systems of cultural values. Thus, social vulnerability is a pre-existing condition that affects a society's ability to prepare for and recover from a disruptive event. Risk is the probability of a loss, and this loss depends on three elements: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Thus, risk is the estimated impact that a hazard event would have on people, services, facilities, structures and assets in a community. In this work we assess the risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37N, 92.25W) with a population of about 20 000 habitants. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed to many different natural hazards (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods). To determine the level of exposure of the community to natural hazards, we developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic microzonation, landslide and flood susceptibility as well as volcanic impact using standard methodologies. Social vulnerability was quantified from data obtained from local families interviews. Five variables were considered: household structure quality and design, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing family plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception.The number of families surveyed was determined considering a sample statistically significant. The families that were interviewed were selected using the simple random sampling technique with replacement. With these

Natural hazard risk perception of Italian population: case studies along national territory.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gravina, Teresita; Tupputi Schinosa, Francesca De Luca; Zuddas, Isabella; Preto, Mattia; Marengo, Angelo; Esposito, Alessandro; Figliozzi, Emanuele; Rapinatore, Matteo

2015-04-01

Risk perception is judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of risks, in last few years risk perception studies focused on provide cognitive elements to communication experts responsible in order to design citizenship information and awareness appropriate strategies. Several authors in order to determine natural hazards risk (Seismic, landslides, cyclones, flood, Volcanic) perception used questionnaires as tool for providing reliable quantitative data and permitting comparison the results with those of similar surveys. In Italy, risk perception studies based on surveys, were also carried out in order to investigate on national importance Natural risk, in particular on Somma-Vesuvio and Phlegrean Fields volcanic Risks, but lacked risk perception studies on local situation distributed on whole national territory. National importance natural hazard were frequently reported by national mass media and there were debate about emergencies civil protection plans, otherwise could be difficult to obtain information on bonded and regional nature natural hazard which were diffuses along National territory. In fact, Italian peninsula was a younger geological area subjected to endogenous phenomena (volcanoes, earthquake) and exogenous phenomena which determine land evolution and natural hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole) for population. For this reason we decided to investigate on natural risks perception in different Italian place were natural hazard were taken place but not reported from mass media, as were only local relevant or historical event. We carried out surveys in different Italian place interested by different types of natural Hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole, volcanic phenomena and earthquake) and compared results, in order to understand population perception level, awareness and civil protection exercises preparation. Our findings support that risks

Review of Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) Assessments for the DOE Hanford Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Snow, Robert L.; Ross, Steven B.

2011-09-15

The purpose of this review is to assess the need for updating Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) assessments for the DOE's Hanford Site, as required by DOE Order 420.1B Chapter IV, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, based on significant changes in state-of-the-art NPH assessment methodology or site-specific information. This review is an update and expansion to the September 2010 review of PNNL-19751, Review of Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) Assessments for the Hanford 200 Areas (Non-Seismic).

Modeling of Marine Natural Hazards in the Lesser Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahibo, Narcisse; Nikolkina, Irina; Pelinovsky, Efim

2010-05-01

The Caribbean Sea countries are often affected by various marine natural hazards: hurricanes and cyclones, tsunamis and flooding. The historical data of marine natural hazards for the Lesser Antilles and specially, for Guadeloupe are presented briefly. Numerical simulation of several historical tsunamis in the Caribbean Sea (1755 Lisbon trans-Atlantic tsunami, 1867 Virgin Island earthquake tsunami, 2003 Montserrat volcano tsunami) are performed within the framework of the nonlinear-shallow theory. Numerical results demonstrate the importance of the real bathymetry variability with respect to the direction of propagation of tsunami wave and its characteristics. The prognostic tsunami wave height distribution along the Caribbean Coast is computed using various forms of seismic and hydrodynamics sources. These results are used to estimate the far-field potential for tsunami hazards at coastal locations in the Caribbean Sea. The nonlinear shallow-water theory is also applied to model storm surges induced by tropical cyclones, in particular, cyclones "Lilli" in 2002 and "Dean" in 2007. Obtained results are compared with observed data. The numerical models have been tested against known analytical solutions of the nonlinear shallow-water wave equations. Obtained results are described in details in [1-7]. References [1] N. Zahibo and E. Pelinovsky, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 1, 221 (2001). [2] N. Zahibo, E. Pelinovsky, A. Yalciner, A. Kurkin, A. Koselkov and A. Zaitsev, Oceanologica Acta, 26, 609 (2003). [3] N. Zahibo, E. Pelinovsky, A. Kurkin and A. Kozelkov, Science Tsunami Hazards. 21, 202 (2003). [4] E. Pelinovsky, N. Zahibo, P. Dunkley, M. Edmonds, R. Herd, T. Talipova, A. Kozelkov and I. Nikolkina, Science of Tsunami Hazards, 22, 44 (2004). [5] N. Zahibo, E. Pelinovsky, E. Okal, A. Yalciner, C. Kharif, T. Talipova and A. Kozelkov, Science of Tsunami Hazards, 23, 25 (2005). [6] N. Zahibo, E. Pelinovsky, T. Talipova, A. Rabinovich, A. Kurkin and I

Point Positioning Service for Natural Hazard Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bar-Sever, Y. E.

2014-12-01

In an effort to improve natural hazard monitoring, JPL has invested in updating and enlarging its global real-time GNSS tracking network, and has launched a unique service - real-time precise positioning for natural hazard monitoring, entitled GREAT Alert (GNSS Real-Time Earthquake and Tsunami Alert). GREAT Alert leverages the full technological and operational capability of the JPL's Global Differential GPS System [www.gdgps.net] to offer owners of real-time dual-frequency GNSS receivers: Sub-5 cm (3D RMS) real-time, absolute positioning in ITRF08, regardless of location Under 5 seconds turnaround time Full covariance information Estimates of ancillary parameters (such as troposphere) optionally provided This service enables GNSS networks operators to instantly have access to the most accurate and reliable real-time positioning solutions for their sites, and also to the hundreds of participating sites globally, assuring inter-consistency and uniformity across all solutions. Local authorities with limited technical and financial resources can now access to the best technology, and share environmental data to the benefit of the entire pacific region. We will describe the specialized precise point positioning techniques employed by the GREAT Alert service optimized for natural hazard monitoring, and in particular Earthquake monitoring. We address three fundamental aspects of these applications: 1) small and infrequent motion, 2) the availability of data at a central location, and 3) the need for refined solutions at several time scales

Assessing community vulnerabilities to natural hazards on the Island of Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishioka, Chris; Delparte, Donna

2010-05-01

The island of Hawaii is susceptible to numerous natural hazards such as tsunamis, flooding, lava flow, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides, wildfires and storm surge. The impact of a natural disaster on the island's communities has the potential to endanger peoples' lives and threaten critical infrastructure, homes, businesses and economic drivers such as tourism. A Geographic Information System (GIS) has the ability to assess community vulnerabilities by examining the spatial relationships between hazard zones, socioeconomic infrastructure and demographic data. By drawing together existing datasets, GIS was used to examine a number of community vulnerabilities. Key areas of interest were government services, utilities, property assets, industry and transportation. GIS was also used to investigate population dynamics in hazard zones. Identification of community vulnerabilities from GIS analysis can support mitigation measures and assist planning and response measures to natural hazards.

Language of the Earth: Exploring Natural Hazards through a Literary Anthology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malamud, B. D.; Rhodes, F. H. T.

2009-04-01

This paper explores natural hazards teaching and communications through the use of a literary anthology of writings about the earth aimed at non-experts. Teaching natural hazards in high-school and university introductory Earth Science and Geography courses revolves mostly around lectures, examinations, and laboratory demonstrations/activities. Often the results of such a course are that a student 'memorizes' the answers, and is penalized when they miss a given fact [e.g., "You lost one point because you were off by 50 km/hr on the wind speed of an F5 tornado."] Although facts and general methodologies are certainly important when teaching natural hazards, it is a strong motivation to a student's assimilation of, and enthusiasm for, this knowledge, if supplemented by writings about the Earth. In this paper, we discuss a literary anthology which we developed [Language of the Earth, Rhodes, Stone, Malamud, Wiley-Blackwell, 2008] which includes many descriptions about natural hazards. Using first- and second-hand accounts of landslides, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods and volcanic eruptions, through the writings of McPhee, Gaskill, Voltaire, Austin, Cloos, and many others, hazards become 'alive', and more than 'just' a compilation of facts and processes. Using short excerpts such as these, or other similar anthologies, of remarkably written accounts and discussions about natural hazards results in 'dry' facts becoming more than just facts. These often highly personal viewpoints of our catostrophic world, provide a useful supplement to a student's understanding of the turbulent world in which we live.

Natural radiation hazards on the manned Mars mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Letaw, John R.; Silberberg, Rein; Tsao, C. H.

1986-01-01

The hazards of the natural radiation environment (cosmic rays and solar energetic particles) on a manned mission to Mars are considered. These hazards are addressed in three different settings: the flight to Mars where the astronauts are shielded only by the spacecraft; on the surface of Mars under an atmosphere of about 10 g/sq cm carbon dioxide; and under the surface of Mars where additional shielding would result.

Extreme Geohazards: Reducing Disaster Risk and Increasing Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, Hans-Peter; Stein, Seth; Brocklebank, Sean; Jules-Plag, Shelley; Campus, Paola

2014-05-01

Extreme natural hazards have the potential to cause global disasters and to lead to an escalation of the global sustainability crisis. Floods and droughts pose threats that could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis cause disasters that could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly in hazardous areas containing megacities, that can be particularly vulnerable to natural hazards if proper emergency protocols and infrastructures are not set in place. Recent events illustrate the destruction extreme hazards can inflict, both directly and indirectly, through domino effects resulting from the interaction with the built environment. Unfortunately, the more humanity learns to cope with relatively frequent (50 to 100 years) natural hazard events, the less concerns remain about the low-probability (one in a few hundred or more years) high-impact events. As a consequence, threats from low-probability extreme floods, droughts, and volcanic eruptions are not appropriately accounted for in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) discussions. With the support of the European Science Foundation (ESF), the Geohazards Community of Practice (GHCP) of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) has developed a White Paper (WP) on the risk associated with low-probability, high-impact geohazards. These events are insufficiently addressed in risk management, although their potential impacts are comparable to those of a large asteroid impact, a global pandemic, or an extreme drought. The WP aims to increase awareness of the risk associated with these events as a basis for a comprehensive risk management. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because the exposure of human assets to such hazards and the global population density were much lower than today. The most extreme events during the last 2,000 years would cause today unparalleled

40 CFR 355.12 - What quantities of extremely hazardous substances trigger emergency planning requirements?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false What quantities of extremely hazardous substances trigger emergency planning requirements? 355.12 Section 355.12 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS...

A Possible Paradigm for the Mitigation of the Adverse Impacts of Natural Hazards in the Developing Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aswathanarayana, U.

2001-05-01

The proneness of a country or region to a given natural hazard depends upon its geographical location, physiography, geological and structural setting, landuse/landcover situation, and biophysical and socioeconomic environments (e.g. cyclones and floods in Bangladesh, earthquakes in Turkey, drought in Sub-Saharan Africa). While the natural hazards themselves cannot be prevented, it is possible to mitigate their adverse effects, by a knowledge-based, environmentally-sustainable approach, involving the stakeholder communities: (i) by being prepared: on the basis of the understanding of the land conditions which are prone to a given hazard and the processes which could culminate in damage to life and property (e.g. planting of dense-rooted vegetation belts to protect against landslides in the earthquake-prone areas), (ii) by avoiding improper anthropogenic activities that may exacerbate a hazard (e.g. deforestation accentuating the floods and droughts), and (iii) by putting a hazard to a beneficial use, where possible (groundwater recharging of flood waters), etc. Mitigation strategies need to be custom-made for each country/region by integrating the biophysical and socioeconomic components. The proposed paradigm is illustrated in respect of Extreme Weather Events (EWEs), which is based on the adoption of three approaches: (i) Typology approach, involving the interpretation of remotely sensed data, to predict (say) temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation, (ii) "black box" approach, whereby the potential environmental consequences of an EWE are projected on the basis of previously known case histories, and (iii) Information Technology approach, to translate advanced technical information in the form of "virtual" do-it-yourself steps understandable to lay public.

Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eidsvig, Unni Marie K.; Kristensen, Krister; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn

2017-03-01

This paper proposes a model for assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures, with a focus on the indirect losses and loss of stability for the population relying on the infrastructure. The model prescribes a three-level analysis with increasing level of detail, moving from qualitative to quantitative analysis. The focus is on a methodology for semi-quantitative analyses to be performed at the second level. The purpose of this type of analysis is to perform a screening of the scenarios of natural hazards threatening the infrastructures, identifying the most critical scenarios and investigating the need for further analyses (third level). The proposed semi-quantitative methodology considers the frequency of the natural hazard, different aspects of vulnerability, including the physical vulnerability of the infrastructure itself, and the societal dependency on the infrastructure. An indicator-based approach is applied, ranking the indicators on a relative scale according to pre-defined ranking criteria. The proposed indicators, which characterise conditions that influence the probability of an infrastructure malfunctioning caused by a natural event, are defined as (1) robustness and buffer capacity, (2) level of protection, (3) quality/level of maintenance and renewal, (4) adaptability and quality of operational procedures and (5) transparency/complexity/degree of coupling. Further indicators describe conditions influencing the socio-economic consequences of the infrastructure malfunctioning, such as (1) redundancy and/or substitution, (2) cascading effects and dependencies, (3) preparedness and (4) early warning, emergency response and measures. The aggregated risk estimate is a combination of the semi-quantitative vulnerability indicators, as well as quantitative estimates of the frequency of the natural hazard, the potential duration of the infrastructure malfunctioning (e.g. depending on the required restoration effort) and the number of users of

Natural hazards in the karst areas of the Viñales National Park, Cuba

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govea Blanco, Darlenys; Farfan Gonzalez, Hermes; Dias Guanche, Carlos; Parise, Mario; Ramirez, Robert

2010-05-01

Cuban karst is subject to several natural hazards, the great majority of which is hydro-meteorological in character: intense rainstorms, tropical cyclones, seawater inundation, etc. A further, serious problem is represented by droughts, that have become very severe during the recent years, due to longer persistence of the dry season. Beside these hazards, seismic shocks in the eastern part of the country, and mass movements in the mountain areas have also to be mentioned. In general, it has to be noted that both casualties and economic losses from natural disasters have slowly decreased during the last decades at Cuba. Viñales National Park, as many other natural landforms in the Cuban karst, has a great potential for development and exploitation in several different fields, from agriculture, to tourism and recreational activities. At these aims, it is necessary to preserve the natural landscape, its beauty and resources, and, at the same time, improve the quality of people living in these environments. In particular, to face the social changes at present occurring in the area is one of the most difficult task for those people that are in charge of land management and development. It has also to be remembered that "Valle de Viñales" has been included by UNESCO in the World Cultural Heritage List. The main scenarios of natural hazards in the Viñales National Park are described in this contribution, and analyzed by means of different methodologies. Flooded areas have been mapped in the field soon after the occurrence of an extreme event as the hurricane Ike, characterized by rainfall higher than 300 mm/day, and preceded only ten days before by hurricane Gustav, that discharged in the area an amount of 120 mm/day of rain. As a consequence of the temporal vicinity of the two events, the terranes were already highly saturated at the time of occurrence of hurricane Ike, which thus resulted to be one of the most extreme floods ever recorded in the area. Electrostatic

How extreme are extremes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

2016-04-01

High temperatures have an impact on the energy balance of any living organism and on the operational capabilities of critical infrastructures. Heat-wave indicators have been mainly developed with the aim of capturing the potential impacts on specific sectors (agriculture, health, wildfires, transport, power generation and distribution). However, the ability to capture the occurrence of extreme temperature events is an essential property of a multi-hazard extreme climate indicator. Aim of this study is to develop a standardized heat-wave indicator, that can be combined with other indices in order to describe multiple hazards in a single indicator. The proposed approach can be used in order to have a quantified indicator of the strenght of a certain extreme. As a matter of fact, extremes are usually distributed in exponential or exponential-exponential functions and it is difficult to quickly asses how strong was an extreme events considering only its magnitude. The proposed approach simplify the quantitative and qualitative communication of extreme magnitude

Risk Management and Physical Modelling for Mountainous Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehning, Michael; Wilhelm, Christian

Population growth and climate change cause rapid changes in mountainous regions resulting in increased risks of floods, avalanches, debris flows and other natural hazards. Xevents are of particular concern, since attempts to protect against them result in exponentially growing costs. In this contribution, we suggest an integral risk management approach to dealing with natural hazards that occur in mountainous areas. Using the example of a mountain pass road, which can be protected from the danger of an avalanche by engineering (galleries) and/or organisational (road closure) measures, we show the advantage of an optimal combination of both versus the traditional approach, which is to rely solely on engineering structures. Organisational measures become especially important for Xevents because engineering structures cannot be designed for those events. However, organisational measures need a reliable and objective forecast of the hazard. Therefore, we further suggest that such forecasts should be developed using physical numerical modelling. We present the status of current approaches to using physical modelling to predict snow cover stability for avalanche warnings and peak runoff from mountain catchments for flood warnings. While detailed physical models can already predict peak runoff reliably, they are only used to support avalanche warnings. With increased process knowledge and computer power, current developments should lead to a enhanced role for detailed physical models in natural mountain hazard prediction.

United States Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Response

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamb, Rynn M.; Jones, Brenda K.

2012-01-01

The primary goal of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Response is to ensure that the disaster response community has access to timely, accurate, and relevant geospatial products, imagery, and services during and after an emergency event. To accomplish this goal, products and services provided by the National Geospatial Program (NGP) and Land Remote Sensing (LRS) Program serve as a geospatial framework for mapping activities of the emergency response community. Post-event imagery and analysis can provide important and timely information about the extent and severity of an event. USGS Natural Hazards Response will also support the coordination of remotely sensed data acquisitions, image distribution, and authoritative geospatial information production as required for use in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery operations.

Designing Effective Natural Hazards Preparedness Communications: Factors that Influence Perceptions and Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong-Parodi, G.; Fischhoff, B.

2012-12-01

Even though most people believe that natural hazards preparation is important for mitigating damage to their homes and basic survival in the aftermath of a disaster, few actually disaster-proof their homes, create plans, or obtain supplies recommended by agencies such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Several observational studies suggest that socio-demographic characteristics such as income and psychological characteristics such as self-efficacy affect whether or not an individual takes action to prepare for a natural hazard. These studies, however, only suggest that these characteristics may play a role. There has been little research that systematically investigates how these characteristics play a role in people's perceptions of recommended preparatory activities and decisions to perform them. Therefore, in Study 1, we explore people's perceptions of natural hazards preparedness measures on four dimensions: time, cost, helpfulness, and sense of preparedness. We further investigate if these responses vary by the socio-demographic and psychological characteristics of self-efficacy, knowledge, and income level. In Study 2, we experimentally test whether people's sense of self-efficacy, as it relates to natural hazards, can be manipulated through exposure to an "easy-and-effective" versus a "hard-and-effective" set of preparation measures. Our findings have implications for the design of natural hazards communication materials for the general public.

The Impact of Natural Hazards such as Turbulent Wind Gusts on the Wind Energy Conversion Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wächter, M.; Hölling, M.; Milan, P.; Morales, A.; Peinke, J.

2012-12-01

Wind turbines operate in the atmospheric boundary layer, where they are exposed to wind gusts and other types of natural hazards. As the response time of wind turbines is typically in the range of seconds, they are affected by the small scale intermittent properties of the turbulent wind. We show evidence that basic features which are known for small-scale homogeneous isotropic turbulence, and in particular the well-known intermittency problem, have an important impact on the wind energy conversion process. Intermittent statistics include high probabilities of extreme events which can be related to wind gusts and other types of natural hazards. As a summarizing result we find that atmospheric turbulence imposes its intermittent features on the complete wind energy conversion process. Intermittent turbulence features are not only present in atmospheric wind, but are also dominant in the loads on the turbine, i.e. rotor torque and thrust, and in the electrical power output signal. We conclude that profound knowledge of turbulent statistics and the application of suitable numerical as well as experimental methods are necessary to grasp these unique features and quantify their effects on all stages of wind energy conversion.

Map Your Hazards! - an Interdisciplinary, Place-Based Educational Approach to Assessing Natural Hazards, Social Vulnerability, Risk and Risk Perception.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brand, B. D.; McMullin-Messier, P. A.; Schlegel, M. E.

2014-12-01

'Map your Hazards' is an educational module developed within the NSF Interdisciplinary Teaching about Earth for a Sustainable Future program (InTeGrate). The module engages students in place-based explorations of natural hazards, social vulnerability, and the perception of natural hazards and risk. Students integrate geoscience and social science methodologies to (1) identify and assess hazards, vulnerability and risk within their communities; (2) distribute, collect and evaluate survey data (designed by authors) on the knowledge, risk perception and preparedness within their social networks; and (3) deliver a PPT presentation to local stakeholders detailing their findings and recommendations for development of a prepared, resilient community. 'Map your Hazards' underwent four rigorous assessments by a team of geoscience educators and external review before being piloted in our classrooms. The module was piloted in a 300-level 'Volcanoes and Society' course at Boise State University, a 300-level 'Environmental Sociology' course at Central Washington University, and a 100-level 'Natural Disasters and Environmental Geology' course at the College of Western Idaho. In all courses students reported a fascination with learning about the hazards around them and identifying the high risk areas in their communities. They were also surprised at the low level of knowledge, inaccurate risk perception and lack of preparedness of their social networks. This successful approach to engaging students in an interdisciplinary, place-based learning environment also has the broad implications of raising awareness of natural hazards (survey participants are provided links to local hazard and preparedness information). The data and preparedness suggestions can be shared with local emergency managers, who are encouraged to attend the student's final presentations. All module materials are published at serc.carleton.edu/integrate/ and are appropriate to a wide range of classrooms.

The use of social media and mobile device applications to disseminate natural hazard information by Natural Resources Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bird, A. L.; Ulmi, M.; Majewski, C.; Hayek, K.; Edwards, W.; McCormack, D. A.; Cole, R. T.; de Paor, D. R.

2011-12-01

Public expectation of near-instant and reliable information is constantly rising. Such expectation puts increasing demands on organizations charged with providing the public with information on hazard events in near-real-time, while ensuring quality and accuracy of content. Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) has responded by augmenting existing methods for earthquake information distribution with new and varied methods for relaying natural hazards information. We profile tools now employed operationally by NRCan to distribute earthquake information to emergency measures organizations, news media and the public. Also presented will be an example of a smart-'phone application which includes several tools for natural hazard preparedness and response, supplemented with automated real-time alerts.

Array Formatting of the Heat-Transfer Method (HTM) for the Detection of Small Organic Molecules by Molecularly Imprinted Polymers

PubMed Central

Wackers, Gideon; Vandenryt, Thijs; Cornelis, Peter; Kellens, Evelien; Thoelen, Ronald; De Ceuninck, Ward; Losada-Pérez, Patricia; van Grinsven, Bart; Peeters, Marloes; Wagner, Patrick

2014-01-01

In this work we present the first steps towards a molecularly imprinted polymer (MIP)-based biomimetic sensor array for the detection of small organic molecules via the heat-transfer method (HTM). HTM relies on the change in thermal resistance upon binding of the target molecule to the MIP-type receptor. A flow-through sensor cell was developed, which is segmented into four quadrants with a volume of 2.5 μL each, allowing four measurements to be done simultaneously on a single substrate. Verification measurements were conducted, in which all quadrants received a uniform treatment and all four channels exhibited a similar response. Subsequently, measurements were performed in quadrants, which were functionalized with different MIP particles. Each of these quadrants was exposed to the same buffer solution, spiked with different molecules, according to the MIP under analysis. With the flow cell design we could discriminate between similar small organic molecules and observed no significant cross-selectivity. Therefore, the MIP array sensor platform with HTM as a readout technique, has the potential to become a low-cost analysis tool for bioanalytical applications. PMID:24955945

Vithanage Receives 2009 Natural Hazards Focus Group Award for Graduate Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2010-04-01

Meththika Vithanage has been awarded the Natural Hazards Focus Group Award for Graduate Research, given annually to recent Ph.D. recipients for outstanding contributions to natural hazards research. Vithanage’s thesis is entitled “Effect of tsunami on coastal aquifers: Field studies and tank experiments.” She was formally presented with the award at the Natural Hazards Focus Group reception during the 2009 AGU Fall Meeting, held 14-18 December in San Francisco, Calif. Vithanage received her B.S. in natural resources from Sabaragamuwa University of Sri Lanka in 2002 and an M.S. in environmental science from the University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka, in 2005. In 2009, she attained a Ph.D. in hydrogeology under the supervision of Karsten Jensen and Peter Engesgaard in the Department of Geology and Geography at University of Copenhagen, Denmark. Her research interests include groundwater flow modeling, density-dependent flow and solute transport modeling, and water quality analysis.

Review of Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) Assessments for the Hanford 200 Areas (Non-Seismic)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Snow, Robert L.; Ross, Steven B.; Sullivan, Robin S.

2010-09-24

The purpose of this review is to assess the need for updating Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) assessments for the Hanford 200 Areas, as required by DOE Order 420.1B Chapter IV, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, based on significant changes in state-of-the-art NPH assessment methodology or site-specific information. The review includes all natural phenomena hazards with the exception of seismic/earthquake hazards, which are being addressed under a separate effort. It was determined that existing non-seismic NPH assessments are consistent with current design methodology and site specific data.

Enhancing international earth science competence in natural hazards through 'geoNatHaz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giardino, Marco; Clague, John J.

2010-05-01

"geoNatHaz" is a Transatlantic Exchange Partnership project (TEP 2009-2012) within the framework of the EU-Canada programme for co-operation in higher education, training, and youth. The project is structured to improve knowledge and skills required to assess and manage natural hazards in mountain regions. It provides student exchanges between European and Canadian universities in order to enhance international competence in natural hazard research. The university consortium is led by Simon Fraser University (Canada) and Università degli studi di Torino (Italy). Partner universities include the University of British Columbia, Queen's University, Università di Bologna, Université de Savoie, and the University of Athens. Université de Lausanne (Switzerland) supports the geoNatHaz advisory board through its bilateral agreements with Canadian partner universities. The geoNatHaz project promotes cross-cultural understanding and internationalization of university natural hazard curricula through common lectures, laboratory exercises, and field activities. Forty graduate students from the seven Canadian and European partner universities will benefit from the project between 2009 and 2012. Some students enrolled in graduate-level earth science and geologic engineering programs spend up to five months at the partner universities, taking courses and participating in research teams under the direction of project scientists. Other students engage in short-term (four-week) exchanges involving training in classic natural hazard case-studies in mountain regions of Canada and Europe. Joint courses are delivered in English, but complementary cultural activities are offered in the languages of the host countries. Supporting organizations offer internships and technical and scientific support. Students benefit from work-study programs with industry partners. Supporting organizations include government departments and agencies (Geological Survey of Canada; CNR-IRPI National

Selected References on Asbestos: Its Nature, Hazards, Detection, and Control.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Education Association, Washington, DC.

This document provides teachers with sources of information about the nature, hazards, detection, and control of asbestos. Because many school buildings include asbestos-containing materials, teachers and other school personnel must be aware of the potential dangers to students and to themselves and take steps to have asbestos hazards contained or…

Detection of Natural Hazards Generated TEC Perturbations and Related New Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komjathy, A.; Yang, Y.; Langley, R. B.

2013-12-01

Natural hazards, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis, have been significant threats to humans throughout recorded history. The Global Positioning System satellites have become primary sensors to measure signatures associated with such natural hazards. These signatures typically include GPS-derived seismic deformation measurements, co-seismic vertical displacements, and real-time GPS-derived ocean buoy positioning estimates. Another way to use GPS observables is to compute the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) to measure and monitor post-seismic ionospheric disturbances caused by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis. Research at the University of New Brunswick (UNB) laid the foundations to model the three-dimensional ionosphere at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory by ingesting ground- and space-based GPS measurements into the state-of-the-art Global Assimilative Ionosphere Modeling (GAIM) software. As an outcome of the UNB and NASA research, new and innovative GPS applications have been invented including the use of ionospheric measurements to detect tiny fluctuations in the GPS signals between the spacecraft and GPS receivers caused by natural hazards occurring on or near the Earth's surface. This continuing research is expected to provide early warning for tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and meteor impacts, for example, using GPS and other global navigation satellite systems. We will demonstrate new and upcoming applications including recent natural hazards and artificial explosions that generated TEC perturbations to perform state-of-the-art imaging and modeling of earthquakes, tsunamis and meteor impacts. By studying the propagation properties of ionospheric perturbations generated by natural hazards along with applying sophisticated first-principles physics-based modeling, we are on track to develop new technologies that can potentially save human lives and minimize property damage.

Designsafe-Ci a Cyberinfrastructure for Natural Hazard Simulation and Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, C.; Rathje, E.; Stanzione, D.; Padgett, J.; Pinelli, J. P.

2017-12-01

DesignSafe is the web-based research platform of the Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI) network that provides the computational tools needed to manage and analyze critical data for natural hazards research, with wind and storm surge related hazards being a primary focus. One of the simulation tools under DesignSafe is the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model, a coastal ocean model used in storm surge analysis. ADCIRC is an unstructured, finite element model with high resolution capabilities for studying storm surge impacts, and has long been used in storm surge hind-casting and forecasting. In this talk, we will demonstrate the use of ADCIRC within the DesignSafe platform and its use for forecasting Hurricane Harvey. We will also demonstrate how to analyze, visualize and archive critical storm surge related data within DesignSafe.

Hyperspectral Cubesat Constellation for Rapid Natural Hazard Response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mandl, Daniel; Huemmrich, Karl; Crum, Gary; Ly, Vuong; Handy, Matthew; Ong, Lawrence

2015-01-01

Earth Observing 1 (E0-1) satellite has an imaging spectrometer (hyperspectral) instrument called Hyperion. The satellite is able to image any spot on Earth in the nadir looking direction every 16 days. With slewing of the satellite and allowing for up to a 23 degree view angle, any spot on the Earth can be imaged approximately every 2 to 3 days. EO-1 has been used to track many natural hazards such as wildfires, volcanoes and floods. An enhanced capability that is sought is the ability to image natural hazards in a daily time series for space based imaging spectrometers. The Hyperion can not provide this capability on EO-1 with the present polar orbit. However, a constellation of cubesats, each with the same imaging spectrometer, positioned strategically in the same orbit, can be used to provide daily coverage, cost-effectively.

Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murray, R.C.

1993-09-01

This paper will present a summary of past and present accomplishments of the Natural Phenomena Hazards Program that has been ongoing at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory since 1975. The Natural Phenomena covered includes earthquake; winds, hurricanes, and tornadoes; flooding and precipitation; lightning; and volcanic events. The work is organized into four major areas (1) Policy, requirements, standards, and guidance (2) Technical support, research development, (3) Technology transfer, and (4) Oversight.

Hyperspectral Cubesat Constellation for Natural Hazard Response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mandl, Daniel; Crum, Gary; Ly, Vuong; Handy, Matthew; Huemmrich, Karl F.; Ong, Lawrence; Holt, Ben; Maharaja, Rishabh

2016-01-01

The authors on this paper are team members of the Earth Observing 1 (E0-1) mission which has flown an imaging spectrometer (hyperspectral) instrument called Hyperion for the past 15+ years. The satellite is able to image any spot on Earth in the nadir looking direction every 16 days and with slewing, of the satellite for up to a 23 degree view angle, any spot on the Earth can be imaged approximately every 2 to 3 days. EO-1 has been used to track many natural hazards such as wildfires, volcanoes and floods. An enhanced capability that has been sought is the ability to image natural hazards in a daily time series for space-based imaging spectrometers. The Hyperion cannot provide this capability on EO-1 with the present polar orbit. However, a constellation of cubesats, each with the same imaging spectrometer, positioned strategically can be used to provide daily coverage or even diurnal coverage, cost-effectively. This paper sought to design a cubesat constellation mission that would accomplish this goal and then to articulate the key tradeoffs.

Historical analysis of US pipeline accidents triggered by natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

2015-04-01

Natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, or lightning, can initiate accidents in oil and gas pipelines with potentially major consequences on the population or the environment due to toxic releases, fires and explosions. Accidents of this type are also referred to as Natech events. Many major accidents highlight the risk associated with natural-hazard impact on pipelines transporting dangerous substances. For instance, in the USA in 1994, flooding of the San Jacinto River caused the rupture of 8 and the undermining of 29 pipelines by the floodwaters. About 5.5 million litres of petroleum and related products were spilled into the river and ignited. As a results, 547 people were injured and significant environmental damage occurred. Post-incident analysis is a valuable tool for better understanding the causes, dynamics and impacts of pipeline Natech accidents in support of future accident prevention and mitigation. Therefore, data on onshore hazardous-liquid pipeline accidents collected by the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) was analysed. For this purpose, a database-driven incident data analysis system was developed to aid the rapid review and categorization of PHMSA incident reports. Using an automated data-mining process followed by a peer review of the incident records and supported by natural hazard databases and external information sources, the pipeline Natechs were identified. As a by-product of the data-collection process, the database now includes over 800,000 incidents from all causes in industrial and transportation activities, which are automatically classified in the same way as the PHMSA record. This presentation describes the data collection and reviewing steps conducted during the study, provides information on the developed database and data analysis tools, and reports the findings of a statistical analysis of the identified hazardous liquid pipeline incidents in terms of accident dynamics and

Community Resilience: Increasing Public Understanding of Risk and Vulnerability to Natural Hazards through Informal Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salna, E.

2017-12-01

The Extreme Events Institute's (EEI) International Hurricane Research Center (IHRC) at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida, as a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador, is dedicated to make South Florida, Ready, Responsive and Resilient. IHRC with funding from the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) has developed several museum exhibits and events. This includes the hands-on FIU Wall of Wind exhibit for the National Building Museum in Washington, DC, the Frost Science Museum in Miami, Florida, and the Museum of Discovery and Science (MODS) in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. The exhibit teaches the public about hurricane wind engineering research, enhanced building codes, and the importance of protecting your home's windows and doors with code-approved shutters. In addition, IHRC and MODS facilitate Eye of the Storm, a free-of-charge, community event with interactive hurricane science, and preparedness activities, including the entertaining Owlie Skywarn live theater show and live air cannon missile impact demonstrations. This annual event includes many local, state and federal partners, including NOAA and NWS. The IHRC also developed the FIU Wall of Wind Mitigation Challenge. As the next generation of engineers to address natural hazards and extreme weather, this STEM education event features a competition between high school teams to develop innovative wind mitigation concepts and real-life human safety and property protection solutions. IHRC and MODS are also developing a new exhibit of a Hazard/Risk Equation that will "come to life," through virtual reality (VR) technology in a state-of-the art 7D theater. The exhibit will provide a better public understanding of how changes in exposures and vulnerabilities will determine whether a community experiences an emergency, disaster or catastrophe. It will raise public consciousness and drive home the point that communities need not passively accept natural hazard risks. Ultimately, if we raise

An application programming interface for extreme precipitation and hazard products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirschbaum, D.; Stanley, T.; Cappelaere, P. G.; Reed, J.; Lammers, M.

2016-12-01

Remote sensing data provides situational awareness of extreme events and hazards over large areas in a way that is impossible to achieve with in situ data. However, more valuable than raw data is actionable information based on user needs. This information can take the form of derived products, extraction of a subset of variables in a larger data matrix, or data processing for a specific goal. These products can then stream to the end users, who can use these data to improve local to global decision making. This presentation will outline both the science and methodology of two new data products and tools that can provide relevant climate and hazard data for response and support. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission provides near real-time information on rain and snow around the world every thirty minutes. Through a new applications programing interface (API), this data can be freely accessed by consumers to visualize, analyze, and communicate where, when and how much rain is falling worldwide. The second tool is a global landslide model that provides situational awareness of potential landslide activity in near real-time, utilizing several remotely sensed data products. This hazard information is also provided through an API and is being ingested by the emergency response community, international aid organizations, and others around the world. This presentation will highlight lessons learned through the development, implementation, and communication of these products and tools with the goal of enabling better and more effective decision making.

Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred.

PubMed

Basher, Reid

2006-08-15

To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increasing in number and severity and international institutional frameworks to reduce disasters are being strengthened under United Nations oversight. Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems to cater to the needs of all countries and all hazards.

Natural hazard impact on the technosphere: "blackouts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrova, E. G.

2012-04-01

In recent years, natural-technological accidents (NTA) and disasters are increasing in their number and severity all over the world. The term "natural-technological accident (disaster)" applies for an accident (disaster) in the technosphere triggered by any natural process or phenomenon. Their growth is caused, on the one hand, by observed increasing in the frequency and intensity of some natural hazards and hazardous events due to climate change and, on the other hand, by a growing complication of the modern technosphere exposed to natural impacts and advancement of economic activities into the area at natural risk. The most large-scaled natural-technological disaster happened on March 11, 2011 in Japan, as a result of a massive earthquake and tsunami that caused a number of serious technological accidents, including accidents at "Fukushima-1" nuclear power plant, etc. Severe social, ecological and economic consequences of large-scaled NTA make investigation of these events especially important. The most frequent among NTA occurring in Russia are breakdowns in electric power supply systems that lead to so-called "blackouts" (accidental power outages). They are mainly caused by strong winds, snowstorms, deposition of ice, sleet, and snow, rainfalls, floods, and hailstones. Among other triggers earthquakes, hard frost, fierce heat, thunderstorms, landslides, snow avalanches, and debris flows should be mentioned. The great part of transmission facilities in Russia falls on overhead lines that are especially vulnerable to natural impacts. In general, natural triggers are responsible for more than 70 percent of all accidents in power supply systems. They occur more often in Far East, in the Southern and North-Western federal districts, and in some regions of the Central Russia, which are prone to hurricanes, cyclones, snowstorms, and heavy rainfalls accompanying by hailstones, icing, and sleet. A distinctive feature of these events is their synergistic nature, as power

Tools used by the insurance industry to assess risk from hydroclimatic extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgs, Stephanie; McMullan, Caroline

2016-04-01

Probabilistic catastrophe models are widely used within the insurance industry to assess and price the risk of natural hazards to individual residences through to portfolios of millions of properties. Over the relatively short period that catastrophe models have been available (almost 30 years), the insurance industry has built up a financial resilience to key natural hazards in certain areas (e.g. US tropical cyclone, European extra-tropical cyclone and flood). However, due the rapidly expanding global population and increase in wealth, together with uncertainties in the behaviour of meteorological phenomena introduced by climate change, the domain in which natural hazards impact society is growing. As a result, the insurance industry faces new challenges in assessing the risk and uncertainty from natural hazards. As a catastrophe modelling company, AIR Worldwide has a toolbox of options available to help the insurance industry assess extreme climatic events and their associated uncertainty. Here we discuss several of these tools: from helping analysts understand how uncertainty is inherently built in to probabilistic catastrophe models, to understanding alternative stochastic catalogs for tropical cyclone based on climate conditioning. Through the use of stochastic extreme disaster events such as those provided through AIR's catalogs or through the Lloyds of London marketplace (RDS's) to provide useful benchmarks for the loss probability exceedence and tail-at-risk metrics outputted from catastrophe models; to the visualisation of 1000+ year event footprints and hazard intensity maps. Ultimately the increased transparency of catastrophe models and flexibility of a software platform that allows for customisation of modelled and non-modelled risks will drive a greater understanding of extreme hydroclimatic events within the insurance industry.

Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.; Ward, Philip

2017-01-01

Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes,tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards and societies vulnerability to them differ between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods, and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths, and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, andincrease propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

BICAPA case study of natural hazards that trigger technological disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boca, Gabriela; Ozunu, Alexandru; Nicolae Vlad, Serban

2010-05-01

Industrial facilities are vulnerable to natural disasters. Natural disasters and technological accidents are not always singular or isolated events. The example in this paper show that they can occur in complex combinations and/or in rapid succession, known as NaTech disasters, thereby triggering multiple impacts. This analysis indicates that NaTech disasters have the potential to trigger hazmat releases and other types of technological accidents. Climate changes play an important role in prevalence and NATECH triggering mechanisms. Projections under the IPCC IS92 a scenario (similar to SRES A1B; IPCC, 1992) and two GCMs indicate that the risk of floods increases in central and eastern Europe. Increase in intense short-duration precipitation is likely to lead to increased risk of flash floods. (Lehner et al., 2006). It is emergent to develop tools for the assessment of risks due to NATECH events in the industrial processes, in a framework starting with the characterization of frequency and severity of natural disasters and continuing with complex analysis of industrial processes, to risk assessment and residual functionality analysis. The Ponds with dangerous technological residues are the most vulnerable targets of natural hazards. Technological accidents such as those in Baia Mare, (from January to March 2000) had an important international echo. Extreme weather phenomena, like those in the winter of 2000 in Baia Mare, and other natural disasters such as floods or earthquakes, can cause a similar disaster at Târnăveni in Transylvania Depression. During 1972 - 1978 three decanting ponds were built on the Chemical Platform Târnăveni, now SC BICAPA SA, for disposal of the hazardous-wastes resulting from the manufacture of sodium dichromate, inorganic salts, sludge from waste water purification and filtration, wet gas production from carbide. The ponds are located on the right bank of the river Târnava at about 35-50m from the flooding defense dam. The total

Towards a cross-domain interoperable framework for natural hazards and disaster risk reduction information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomas, Robert; Harrison, Matthew; Barredo, José I.; Thomas, Florian; Llorente Isidro, Miguel; Cerba, Otakar; Pfeiffer, Manuela

2014-05-01

The vast amount of information and data necessary for comprehensive hazard and risk assessment presents many challenges regarding the lack of accessibility, comparability, quality, organisation and dissemination of natural hazards spatial data. In order to mitigate these limitations an interoperable framework has been developed in the framework of the development of legally binding Implementing rules of the EU INSPIRE Directive1* aiming at the establishment of the European Spatial Data Infrastructure. The interoperability framework is described in the Data Specification on Natural risk zones - Technical Guidelines (DS) document2* that was finalized and published on 10.12. 2013. This framework provides means for facilitating access, integration, harmonisation and dissemination of natural hazard data from different domains and sources. The objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, the paper demonstrates the applicability of the interoperable framework developed in the DS and highlights the key aspects of the interoperability to the various natural hazards communities. Secondly, the paper "translates" into common language the main features and potentiality of the interoperable framework of the DS for a wider audience of scientists and practitioners in the natural hazards domain. Further in this paper the main five aspects of the interoperable framework will be presented. First, the issue of a common terminology for the natural hazards domain will be addressed. A common data model to facilitate cross domain data integration will follow secondly. Thirdly, the common methodology developed to provide qualitative or quantitative assessments of natural hazards will be presented. Fourthly, the extensible classification schema for natural hazards developed from a literature review and key reference documents from the contributing community of practice will be shown. Finally, the applicability of the interoperable framework for the various stakeholder groups will be also

Natural Hazard Susceptibility Assessment for Road Planning Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karlsson, Caroline S. J.; Kalantari, Zahra; Mörtberg, Ulla; Olofsson, Bo; Lyon, Steve W.

2017-11-01

Inadequate infrastructural networks can be detrimental to society if transport between locations becomes hindered or delayed, especially due to natural hazards which are difficult to control. Thus determining natural hazard susceptible areas and incorporating them in the initial planning process, may reduce infrastructural damages in the long run. The objective of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of expert judgments for assessing natural hazard susceptibility through a spatial multi-criteria analysis approach using hydrological, geological, and land use factors. To utilize spatial multi-criteria analysis for decision support, an analytic hierarchy process was adopted where expert judgments were evaluated individually and in an aggregated manner. The estimates of susceptible areas were then compared with the methods weighted linear combination using equal weights and factor interaction method. Results showed that inundation received the highest susceptibility. Using expert judgment showed to perform almost the same as equal weighting where the difference in susceptibility between the two for inundation was around 4%. The results also showed that downscaling could negatively affect the susceptibility assessment and be highly misleading. Susceptibility assessment through spatial multi-criteria analysis is useful for decision support in early road planning despite its limitation to the selection and use of decision rules and criteria. A natural hazard spatial multi-criteria analysis could be used to indicate areas where more investigations need to be undertaken from a natural hazard point of view, and to identify areas thought to have higher susceptibility along existing roads where mitigation measures could be targeted after in-situ investigations.

Natural Hazard Susceptibility Assessment for Road Planning Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis.

PubMed

Karlsson, Caroline S J; Kalantari, Zahra; Mörtberg, Ulla; Olofsson, Bo; Lyon, Steve W

2017-11-01

Inadequate infrastructural networks can be detrimental to society if transport between locations becomes hindered or delayed, especially due to natural hazards which are difficult to control. Thus determining natural hazard susceptible areas and incorporating them in the initial planning process, may reduce infrastructural damages in the long run. The objective of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of expert judgments for assessing natural hazard susceptibility through a spatial multi-criteria analysis approach using hydrological, geological, and land use factors. To utilize spatial multi-criteria analysis for decision support, an analytic hierarchy process was adopted where expert judgments were evaluated individually and in an aggregated manner. The estimates of susceptible areas were then compared with the methods weighted linear combination using equal weights and factor interaction method. Results showed that inundation received the highest susceptibility. Using expert judgment showed to perform almost the same as equal weighting where the difference in susceptibility between the two for inundation was around 4%. The results also showed that downscaling could negatively affect the susceptibility assessment and be highly misleading. Susceptibility assessment through spatial multi-criteria analysis is useful for decision support in early road planning despite its limitation to the selection and use of decision rules and criteria. A natural hazard spatial multi-criteria analysis could be used to indicate areas where more investigations need to be undertaken from a natural hazard point of view, and to identify areas thought to have higher susceptibility along existing roads where mitigation measures could be targeted after in-situ investigations.

Influence of land-use dynamics on natural hazard risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piazza, Giacomo; Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven

2016-04-01

In the recent past the magnitude and frequency of natural hazard events has increased notably worldwide, along with global GDP. A higher number of elements are exposed to natural events, therefore the risk is higher. Both estimated losses and understanding about natural hazards have increased during the past decades, which is contradictory as we may logically think. Risk is increasing, due to climate change and societal change: more severe hazards are happening due to changing climatic patterns and conditions, while society is concentrating assets and people in punctual places leading to a higher exposure. Increasing surface of settled area and the concentration of highly valuable assets (e.g. technology) in exposed areas lead to higher probability of losses. Human use of land resources, namely landuse, is the product of human needs and biophysical characteristics of the land. Landuse involves arrangements, activities and inputs people undertake in a certain land cover type to produce, change or maintain it. These changes are due to many reasons, or driving factors: socio-economical, environmental, accessibility to land, land-tenure, etc. The change of those factors may cause many effects and impacts, at various levels and at different time spans. The relation between driving factors and impacts is not straight. It is although a complex interrelation that turns around two central questions: (1) what drives landuse changes and why and (2) what are the impacts on the environment and on the human society of these changes, regarding to natural hazards. The aim of this paper is to analyse the spatio-temporal environmental changes referring to exposure as well as to test the possibilities and limitations of the land use change model Dyna-CLUEs in a mountain region taking parts of the Republic of Austria as an example, and simulating the future landuse dynamics until 2030. We selected an area composed by eighteen municipalities in the Ill-Walgau in the Austrian federal

Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eidsvig, Unni; Kristensen, Krister; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn

2015-04-01

The modern society is increasingly dependent on infrastructures to maintain its function, and disruption in one of the infrastructure systems may have severe consequences. The Norwegian municipalities have, according to legislation, a duty to carry out a risk and vulnerability analysis and plan and prepare for emergencies in a short- and long term perspective. Vulnerability analysis of the infrastructures and their interdependencies is an important part of this analysis. This paper proposes a model for assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures. The model prescribes a three level analysis with increasing level of detail, moving from qualitative to quantitative analysis. This paper focuses on the second level, which consists of a semi-quantitative analysis. The purpose of this analysis is to perform a screening of the scenarios of natural hazards threatening the infrastructures identified in the level 1 analysis and investigate the need for further analyses, i.e. level 3 quantitative analyses. The proposed level 2 analysis considers the frequency of the natural hazard, different aspects of vulnerability including the physical vulnerability of the infrastructure itself and the societal dependency on the infrastructure. An indicator-based approach is applied, ranking the indicators on a relative scale. The proposed indicators characterize the robustness of the infrastructure, the importance of the infrastructure as well as interdependencies between society and infrastructure affecting the potential for cascading effects. Each indicator is ranked on a 1-5 scale based on pre-defined ranking criteria. The aggregated risk estimate is a combination of the semi-quantitative vulnerability indicators, as well as quantitative estimates of the frequency of the natural hazard and the number of users of the infrastructure. Case studies for two Norwegian municipalities are presented, where risk to primary road, water supply and power network threatened by storm

Down to Earth with a hazard from space: Mapping geoelectric amplitudes for extreme levels of magnetic-storm disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.

2016-12-01

Magnetic-storm induction of geoelectric fields in the Earth's electrically conducting crust, lithosphere, mantle, and ocean can interfere with the operations of electric-power grid systems. The future occurrence of an extremely intense magnetic storm might even result in continental-scale failure of electric-power distribution. Such an event would entail significant deleterious consequence for the economy and international security. Building on a project established by the President's National Science and Technology Council and the Office of Science and Technology Policy for assessing space-weather induction hazards, we develop a series of geoelectric hazard maps. These are constructed using an empirical parameterization of induction: local estimates of Earth-surface impedance, obtained from EarthScope and USGS magnetotelluric survey data, are convolved with latitude-dependent statistical maps of extreme-value geomagnetic activity, obtained from decades magnetic observatory data. Geoelectric hazard maps are constructed for both north-south and east-west geomagnetic variation, and for both 240-s and 1200-s sinusoidal variation -- periods of interest to the power-grid industry. The maps cover about half of the continental United States. They depict the threshold level that geoelectric amplitude can be expected to exceed, on average, once per century at discrete geographic sites in response to extreme-intensity geomagnetic activity. Of the regions where magnetotelluric data are available, the greatest induction hazards are found in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa - this being the result of both high-latitude geomagntic activity and complex subsurface conductivity structure. At some sites in the continental United States, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes can exceed the 1.7 V/km realized in Quebec during the March 1989 storm. This work highlights the importance of geophysical surveys and ground-level monitoring data for assessing space-weather induction hazards.

Flood hazard assessment in areas prone to flash flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvočka, Davor; Falconer, Roger A.; Bray, Michaela

2016-04-01

Contemporary climate projections suggest that there will be an increase in the occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events in the future. These precipitation extremes are usually the main cause for the emergence of extreme flooding, such as flash flooding. Flash floods are among the most unpredictable, violent and fatal natural hazards in the world. Furthermore, it is expected that flash flooding will occur even more frequently in the future due to more frequent development of extreme weather events, which will greatly increase the danger to people caused by flash flooding. This being the case, there will be a need for high resolution flood hazard maps in areas susceptible to flash flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by flash flooding. Two different types of flood hazard assessment methods were tested: (i) a widely used method based on an empirical analysis, and (ii) a new, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. Two flash flood events were considered herein, namely: the 2004 Boscastle flash flood and the 2007 Železniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas susceptible to extreme flooding, the flood hazard assessment should be conducted using methods based on a mechanics-based analysis. In comparison to standard flood hazard assessment methods, these physically based methods: (i) take into account all of the physical forces, which act on a human body in floodwater, (ii) successfully adapt to abrupt changes in the flow regime, which often occur for flash flood events, and (iii) rapidly assess a flood hazard index in a relatively short period of time.

Recent Progress in Understanding Natural-Hazards-Generated TEC Perturbations: Measurements and Modeling Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komjathy, A.; Yang, Y. M.; Meng, X.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Mannucci, A. J.; Langley, R. B.

2015-12-01

Natural hazards, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis, have been significant threats to humans throughout recorded history. The Global Positioning System satellites have become primary sensors to measure signatures associated with such natural hazards. These signatures typically include GPS-derived seismic deformation measurements, co-seismic vertical displacements, and real-time GPS-derived ocean buoy positioning estimates. Another way to use GPS observables is to compute the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) to measure and monitor post-seismic ionospheric disturbances caused by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis. Research at the University of New Brunswick (UNB) laid the foundations to model the three-dimensional ionosphere at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory by ingesting ground- and space-based GPS measurements into the state-of-the-art Global Assimilative Ionosphere Modeling (GAIM) software. As an outcome of the UNB and NASA research, new and innovative GPS applications have been invented including the use of ionospheric measurements to detect tiny fluctuations in the GPS signals between the spacecraft and GPS receivers caused by natural hazards occurring on or near the Earth's surface.We will show examples for early detection of natural hazards generated ionospheric signatures using ground-based and space-borne GPS receivers. We will also discuss recent results from the U.S. Real-time Earthquake Analysis for Disaster Mitigation Network (READI) exercises utilizing our algorithms. By studying the propagation properties of ionospheric perturbations generated by natural hazards along with applying sophisticated first-principles physics-based modeling, we are on track to develop new technologies that can potentially save human lives and minimize property damage. It is also expected that ionospheric monitoring of TEC perturbations might become an integral part of existing natural hazards warning systems.

Vulnerability, safety and response of nuclear power plants to the hydroclimatic hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

János Katona, Tamás; Vilimi, András

2016-04-01

The Great Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami, and the severe accident at Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant 2011 alerted the nuclear industry to danger of extreme rare natural hazards. The subsequent "stress tests" performed by the nuclear industry in Europe and all over the world identifies the nuclear power plant (NPP) vulnerabilities and define the measures for increasing the plant safety. According to the international practice of nuclear safety regulations, the cumulative core damage frequency for NPPs has to be 10-5/a, and the cumulative frequency of early large release has to be 10-6/a. In case of operating plants these annual probabilities can be little higher, but the licensees are obliged to implement all reasonable practicable measures for increasing the plant safety. For achieving the required level of safety, design basis of NPPs for natural hazards has to be defined at the 10-4/a ⎯10-5/a levels of annual exceedance probability. Tornado hazard is some kind of exception, e.g., the design basis annual probability for tornado in the US is equal to 10-7/a. Design of the NPPs shall provide for an adequate margin to protect items ultimately necessary to prevent large or early radioactive releases in the event of levels of natural hazards exceeding those to be considered for design. The plant safety has to be reviewed for accounting the changes of the environmental conditions and natural hazards in case of necessity, but as minimum every ten years in the frame of periodic safety reviews. Long-term forecast of environmental conditions and hazards has to be accounted for in the design basis of the new plants. Changes in hydroclimatic variables, e.g., storms, tornadoes, river floods, flash floods, extreme temperatures, droughts affect the operability and efficiency as well as the safety the NPPs. Low flow rates and high water temperature in the rivers may force to operate at reduced power level or shutdown the plant (Cernavoda NPP, Romania, August 2009). The

Analysis of Precipitation (Rain and Snow) Levels and Straight-line Wind Speeds in Support of the 10-year Natural Phenomena Hazards Review for Los Alamos National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelly, Elizabeth J.; Dewart, Jean Marie; Deola, Regina

This report provides site-specific return level analyses for rain, snow, and straight-line wind extreme events. These analyses are in support of the 10-year review plan for the assessment of meteorological natural phenomena hazards at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). These analyses follow guidance from Department of Energy, DOE Standard, Natural Phenomena Hazards Analysis and Design Criteria for DOE Facilities (DOE-STD-1020-2012), Nuclear Regulatory Commission Standard Review Plan (NUREG-0800, 2007) and ANSI/ ANS-2.3-2011, Estimating Tornado, Hurricane, and Extreme Straight-Line Wind Characteristics at Nuclear Facility Sites. LANL precipitation and snow level data have been collected since 1910, although not all years are complete.more » In this report the results from the more recent data (1990–2014) are compared to those of past analyses and a 2004 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration report. Given the many differences in the data sets used in these different analyses, the lack of statistically significant differences in return level estimates increases confidence in the data and in the modeling and analysis approach.« less

Natural Hazards Risk Reduction and the ARkStorm Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, D. A.; Dettinger, M. D.; Ralph, F. M.

2016-12-01

The ARkStorm Scenario project began in 2008, led by the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (now Science Application for Risk Reduction) in an effort to innovate the application of science to reduce natural-hazard risk associated with large atmospheric-river (AR) storms on the West Coast of the US. The effort involved contributions from many federal, state and academic organizations including NOAA's Environmental Systems Laboratory. The ARkStorm project used new understanding of atmospheric river physics, combined with downscaled meteorological data from two recent ARs (in 1969 and 1986), to describe and model a prolonged sequence of back-to-back storms similar to those that bankrupted California in 1862. With this scientifically plausible (but not worst-case) scenario, the ARkStorm team engaged flood and levee experts to identify plausible flooding extents and durations, created a coastal-storm inundation model (CoSMoS), and California's first landslide susceptibility map, to better understand secondary meteorological and geophysical hazards (flood, wind, landslide, coastal erosion and inundation) across California. Physical damages to homes, infrastructure, agriculture, and the environment were then estimated to calculate the likely social and economic impact to California and the nation. Across California, property damage from the ARkStorm scenario was estimated to exceed 300 billion, mostly from flooding. Including damage and losses, lifeline damages and business interruptions, the total cost of an ARkStorm-sized series of storms came to nearly 725 billion, nearly three times the losses estimated from another SAFRR scenario describing a M7.8 earthquake in southern California. Thus, atmospheric rivers have the potential to be California's other "Big One." Since its creation, the ARkStorm scenario has been used in preparedness exercises by NASA, the US Navy, the State of California, the County of Ventura, and cities and counties in the Tahoe Basin and

Investigating Extreme Heat and Humidity in the Northeast United States from a Joint Hazard Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, R. M.; Coffel, E.; Kushnir, Y.

2014-12-01

Recent years have seen an increasing focus on extreme high temperature events, as our understanding of societal vulnerability to such extremes has grown. Less climate research has been devoted to heat indices that consider the joint hazard posed by high temperatures and high humidity, even though heat indices are being prioritized by utility providers and public health officials. This paper evaluates how well CMIP5 models are able to reproduce the large-scale features and surface conditions associated with joint high heat and humidity events in the Northeast U.S. Projected changes in heat indices are also shown both for the full set of CMIP5 models and for a subset of models that best reproduce the statistics of historical high heat index events. The importance of considering the relationship between 1) temperature and humidity extremes and 2) projected changes in extreme temperature and humidity extremes, rather than investigating each variable independently, will be emphasized. Potential impacts of the findings on human mortality and energy consumption will be briefly discussed.

Natural Hazards and Supply Chain Disruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haraguchi, M.

2016-12-01

Natural hazards distress the global economy through disruptions in supply chain networks. Moreover, despite increasing investment to infrastructure for disaster risk management, economic damages and losses caused by natural hazards are increasing. Manufacturing companies today have reduced inventories and streamlined logistics in order to maximize economic competitiveness. As a result, today's supply chains are profoundly susceptible to systemic risks, which are the risk of collapse of an entire network caused by a few node of the network. For instance, the prolonged floods in Thailand in 2011 caused supply chain disruptions in their primary industries, i.e. electronic and automotive industries, harming not only the Thai economy but also the global economy. Similar problems occurred after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011, the Mississippi River floods and droughts during 2011 - 2013, and the Earthquake in Kumamoto Japan in 2016. This study attempts to discover what kind of effective measures are available for private companies to manage supply chain disruptions caused by floods. It also proposes a method to estimate potential risks using a Bayesian network. The study uses a Bayesian network to create synthetic networks that include variables associated with the magnitude and duration of floods, major components of supply chains such as logistics, multiple layers of suppliers, warehouses, and consumer markets. Considering situations across different times, our study shows desirable data requirements for the analysis and effective measures to improve Value at Risk (VaR) for private enterprises and supply chains.

An (even) broader perspective: Combining environmental processes and natural hazards education in a MSc programme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heckmann, Tobias; Haas, Florian; Trappe, Martin; Cyffka, Bernd; Becht, Michael

2010-05-01

Natural hazards are processes occurring in the natural environment that negatively affect human society. In most instances, the definition of natural hazards implies sudden events as different as earthquakes, floods or landslides. In addition, there are other phenomena that occur more subtly or slowly, and nevertheless may have serious adverse effects on the human environment. Hence, a comprehensive study programme in natural hazards has to include not only the conspicuous causes and effects of natural catastrophes, but of environmental processes in general. Geography as a discipline is located at the interface of natural, social and economic sciences; the physical geography programme described here is designed to include the social and economic dimension as well as management issues. Modules strengthening the theoretical background of geomorphic, geological, hydrological and meteorological processes and hazards are complemented by practical work in the field and the laboratory, dealing with measuring and monitoring environmental processes. On this basis, modeling and managing skills are developed. Another thread in the transdisciplinary programme deals with sustainability and environmental policy issues, and environmental psychology (e.g. perception of and reaction to hazards). This will improve the communication and team working skills of students wherever they are part of an interdisciplinary working group. Through the involvement in research programmes, students are confronted ‘hands on' with the different aspects of environmental processes and their consequences; thus, they will be excellently but not exclusively qualified for positions in the ‘natural hazards' sector.

Risk in nuclear power plants due to natural hazard phenomena

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, S.C.

1995-12-01

For the safety of nuclear power plants, it is important to identify potential areas of vulnerabilities to internal as well as external events to which nuclear power plants are exposed. This paper summarizes the risk in nuclear power plants due to natural hazard phenomena such as earthquakes, winds and tornadoes, floods, etc. The reported results are based on a limited number of probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) performed for a few of the operating nuclear power plants within the United States. The summary includes an importance ranking of various natural hazard phenomena based on their contribution to the plant risk alongmore » with insights observed from the PRA studies.« less

Detecting Spatial Patterns of Natural Hazards from the Wikipedia Knowledge Base

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, J.; Stewart, K.

2015-07-01

The Wikipedia database is a data source of immense richness and variety. Included in this database are thousands of geotagged articles, including, for example, almost real-time updates on current and historic natural hazards. This includes usercontributed information about the location of natural hazards, the extent of the disasters, and many details relating to response, impact, and recovery. In this research, a computational framework is proposed to detect spatial patterns of natural hazards from the Wikipedia database by combining topic modeling methods with spatial analysis techniques. The computation is performed on the Neon Cluster, a high performance-computing cluster at the University of Iowa. This work uses wildfires as the exemplar hazard, but this framework is easily generalizable to other types of hazards, such as hurricanes or flooding. Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) modeling is first employed to train the entire English Wikipedia dump, transforming the database dump into a 500-dimension topic model. Over 230,000 geo-tagged articles are then extracted from the Wikipedia database, spatially covering the contiguous United States. The geo-tagged articles are converted into an LDA topic space based on the topic model, with each article being represented as a weighted multidimension topic vector. By treating each article's topic vector as an observed point in geographic space, a probability surface is calculated for each of the topics. In this work, Wikipedia articles about wildfires are extracted from the Wikipedia database, forming a wildfire corpus and creating a basis for the topic vector analysis. The spatial distribution of wildfire outbreaks in the US is estimated by calculating the weighted sum of the topic probability surfaces using a map algebra approach, and mapped using GIS. To provide an evaluation of the approach, the estimation is compared to wildfire hazard potential maps created by the USDA Forest service.

Impacts of The Future Changes in Extreme Events on Migration in The Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

2016-04-01

Natural hazards are defined as extreme events that threat people, their homes and their neighborhoods. They damage housing, food production system and other infrastructures. The frequency of natural hazards namely drought, floods can influence the residential decision-making and can cause substantial residential mobility by affecting relatively greater numbers of people in the region. Developing countries are more vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. Therefore, environmental migration can be associated with natural hazards especially in the developing countries. Limited water resources and demographic dynamics of the Middle East make the region one of the most affected domains from the impacts of natural hazards. In this study, we consider the relationship between migration as a demographic process and the frequency of natural hazards in the Middle East for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005 by performing the projection according to the scenario of IPCC, namely RCP8.5 through the RegCM4.4 and combining them with an econometric analysis. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

The joint return period analysis of natural disasters based on monitoring and statistical modeling of multidimensional hazard factors.

PubMed

Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Yuan, Shuai; Xu, Ning; Shi, Wenqin; Chen, Weibin

2015-12-15

As a random event, a natural disaster has the complex occurrence mechanism. The comprehensive analysis of multiple hazard factors is important in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the accuracy of risk analysis and forecasting, the formation mechanism of a disaster should be considered in the analysis and calculation of multi-factors. Based on the consideration of the importance and deficiencies of multivariate analysis of dust storm disasters, 91 severe dust storm disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2013 were selected as study cases in the paper. Main hazard factors from 500-hPa atmospheric circulation system, near-surface meteorological system, and underlying surface conditions were selected to simulate and calculate the multidimensional joint return periods. After comparing the simulation results with actual dust storm events in 54years, we found that the two-dimensional Frank Copula function showed the better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors and that three-dimensional Frank Copula function displayed the better fitting results at the middle and upper tails of hazard factors. However, for dust storm disasters with the short return period, three-dimensional joint return period simulation shows no obvious advantage. If the return period is longer than 10years, it shows significant advantages in extreme value fitting. Therefore, we suggest the multivariate analysis method may be adopted in forecasting and risk analysis of serious disasters with the longer return period, such as earthquake and tsunami. Furthermore, the exploration of this method laid the foundation for the prediction and warning of other nature disasters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Critical Role of Cyberinfrastructure in Global Observations of Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orcutt, J. A.

2005-12-01

This past year has brought grave lessons about the critical risks posed by natural hazards. The Sumatra earthquake and resultant tsunami causing as many as 300,000 deaths, and Hurricane Katrina and its destruction of the Gulf Coast in Louisiana and Mississippi with an unknown loss of life and infrastructure damage that may approach $100,000,000,000 in rebuilding costs, have been shattering experiences. The Sumatra earthquake reminds us of the tsunami threat we face in Cascadia and news about the avian flu in the orient and its potential transmission to and between humans threatens to bring a natural disaster that can dwarf either of this year's disasters. All of these phenomena have their roots in the geosciences. While the threats of terrorism have dominated political discussions globally for the past few years, the growing impact of natural hazards, including the long-term impact of a potentially changing climate, require that geoscientists develop globally distributed observing systems critically important in mitigating the societal impacts of these hazards. This is particularly important for the AGU, the largest professional geosciences organization in the world today. One of the lessons learned during the past year, however, is that accessing the data and information needed to predict and subsequently understand the impact of hazards is difficult requiring more time than can generally be afforded. For the AGU, the new Focus Group on Earth and Space Science Informatics has an important role in bringing modern methods in information technology, computer sciences, and cyberinfrastructure to the problem of providing coherent access to near-real-time data from the growing suite of Earth observations, the use of the data in model assimilation, the transformation of data to knowledge, and the visualization of the results for use by those responsible for managing the damage caused by these natural hazards. While the challenge is enormous, there is considerable promise

Rainy Day: A Remote Sensing-Driven Extreme Rainfall Simulation Approach for Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Daniel; Yatheendradas, Soni; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Ayalew, Tibebu; Mantilla, Ricardo; Krajewski, Witold

2015-04-01

Progress on the assessment of rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides has been hampered by the challenge of characterizing the frequency, intensity, and structure of extreme rainfall at the watershed or hillslope scale. Conventional approaches rely on simplifying assumptions and are strongly dependent on the location, the availability of long-term rain gage measurements, and the subjectivity of the analyst. Regional and global-scale rainfall remote sensing products provide an alternative, but are limited by relatively short (~15-year) observational records. To overcome this, we have coupled these remote sensing products with a space-time resampling framework known as stochastic storm transposition (SST). SST "lengthens" the rainfall record by resampling from a catalog of observed storms from a user-defined region, effectively recreating the regional extreme rainfall hydroclimate. This coupling has been codified in Rainy Day, a Python-based platform for quickly generating large numbers of probabilistic extreme rainfall "scenarios" at any point on the globe. Rainy Day is readily compatible with any gridded rainfall dataset. The user can optionally incorporate regional rain gage or weather radar measurements for bias correction using the Precipitation Uncertainties for Satellite Hydrology (PUSH) framework. Results from Rainy Day using the CMORPH satellite precipitation product are compared with local observations in two examples. The first example is peak discharge estimation in a medium-sized (~4000 square km) watershed in the central United States performed using CUENCAS, a parsimonious physically-based distributed hydrologic model. The second example is rainfall frequency analysis for Saint Lucia, a small volcanic island in the eastern Caribbean that is prone to landslides and flash floods. The distinct rainfall hydroclimates of the two example sites illustrate the flexibility of the approach and its usefulness for hazard analysis in data-poor regions.

A network of schools for a natural hazard laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Occhipinti, S.

2012-04-01

With the Department of Education of the Aosta Valley - Italy - I have been engaged, for a long time, to promote initiatives with the aim to disseminate scientific culture in order to support teachers in their work and to foster in students the acquisition of scientific knowledge, skills and literacy, as required by the international standards of OECD and TIMSS. For this purpose, a network including all schools has been built, with the aim to promote the co-construction of standards of knowledge, a shared and effective use of resources and tools, of good practices, particularly those experiences based on a deductive, constructivist and Inquiry based approach. SCIENCE IN THE NETWORK: a Regional Science Centre has been built, with the aim to share experimental protocols and scientific instruments, to rationalize expenses, with hands-on individual workstations, high level instruments, but also rough materials. Students of all classes and all ages learn how to use scientific instruments, as required by an "up to date" school. A NETWORK OF PROJECTS: A NATURAL HAZARDS LABORATORY, with many others, has been set up, in cooperation with all regional stakeholders, with the aim to promote in all the schools a shared knowledge of the landscape, of its geological and geomorphologic evolution, with the aim to spread the culture of natural hazards and of prevention, to increase the sensitivity for an intelligent, supportive and sustainable use of the territory, environmentally aware of the natural dynamics. Students can experiment, using technical or wooden made instruments, the effects that natural phenomena, action of waters, ice and gravity can product on outcrops and landscape and to apply to local contest the relationship between the concept of hazard, risk and vulnerability.

Methane Leaks from Natural Gas Systems Follow Extreme Distributions.

PubMed

Brandt, Adam R; Heath, Garvin A; Cooley, Daniel

2016-11-15

Future energy systems may rely on natural gas as a low-cost fuel to support variable renewable power. However, leaking natural gas causes climate damage because methane (CH 4 ) has a high global warming potential. In this study, we use extreme-value theory to explore the distribution of natural gas leak sizes. By analyzing ∼15 000 measurements from 18 prior studies, we show that all available natural gas leakage data sets are statistically heavy-tailed, and that gas leaks are more extremely distributed than other natural and social phenomena. A unifying result is that the largest 5% of leaks typically contribute over 50% of the total leakage volume. While prior studies used log-normal model distributions, we show that log-normal functions poorly represent tail behavior. Our results suggest that published uncertainty ranges of CH 4 emissions are too narrow, and that larger sample sizes are required in future studies to achieve targeted confidence intervals. Additionally, we find that cross-study aggregation of data sets to increase sample size is not recommended due to apparent deviation between sampled populations. Understanding the nature of leak distributions can improve emission estimates, better illustrate their uncertainty, allow prioritization of source categories, and improve sampling design. Also, these data can be used for more effective design of leak detection technologies.

Methane Leaks from Natural Gas Systems Follow Extreme Distributions

DOE PAGES

Brandt, Adam R.; Heath, Garvin A.; Cooley, Daniel

2016-10-14

Future energy systems may rely on natural gas as a low-cost fuel to support variable renewable power. However, leaking natural gas causes climate damage because methane (CH 4) has a high global warming potential. In this study, we use extreme-value theory to explore the distribution of natural gas leak sizes. By analyzing ~15,000 measurements from 18 prior studies, we show that all available natural gas leakage datasets are statistically heavy-tailed, and that gas leaks are more extremely distributed than other natural and social phenomena. A unifying result is that the largest 5% of leaks typically contribute over 50% of themore » total leakage volume. While prior studies used lognormal model distributions, we show that lognormal functions poorly represent tail behavior. Our results suggest that published uncertainty ranges of CH 4 emissions are too narrow, and that larger sample sizes are required in future studies to achieve targeted confidence intervals. Additionally, we find that cross-study aggregation of datasets to increase sample size is not recommended due to apparent deviation between sampled populations. Finally, understanding the nature of leak distributions can improve emission estimates, better illustrate their uncertainty, allow prioritization of source categories, and improve sampling design. Also, these data can be used for more effective design of leak detection technologies.« less

Methane Leaks from Natural Gas Systems Follow Extreme Distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brandt, Adam R.; Heath, Garvin A.; Cooley, Daniel

Future energy systems may rely on natural gas as a low-cost fuel to support variable renewable power. However, leaking natural gas causes climate damage because methane (CH 4) has a high global warming potential. In this study, we use extreme-value theory to explore the distribution of natural gas leak sizes. By analyzing ~15,000 measurements from 18 prior studies, we show that all available natural gas leakage datasets are statistically heavy-tailed, and that gas leaks are more extremely distributed than other natural and social phenomena. A unifying result is that the largest 5% of leaks typically contribute over 50% of themore » total leakage volume. While prior studies used lognormal model distributions, we show that lognormal functions poorly represent tail behavior. Our results suggest that published uncertainty ranges of CH 4 emissions are too narrow, and that larger sample sizes are required in future studies to achieve targeted confidence intervals. Additionally, we find that cross-study aggregation of datasets to increase sample size is not recommended due to apparent deviation between sampled populations. Finally, understanding the nature of leak distributions can improve emission estimates, better illustrate their uncertainty, allow prioritization of source categories, and improve sampling design. Also, these data can be used for more effective design of leak detection technologies.« less

Assessment and Prediction of Natural Hazards from Satellite Imagery

PubMed Central

Gillespie, Thomas W.; Chu, Jasmine; Frankenberg, Elizabeth; Thomas, Duncan

2013-01-01

Since 2000, there have been a number of spaceborne satellites that have changed the way we assess and predict natural hazards. These satellites are able to quantify physical geographic phenomena associated with the movements of the earth’s surface (earthquakes, mass movements), water (floods, tsunamis, storms), and fire (wildfires). Most of these satellites contain active or passive sensors that can be utilized by the scientific community for the remote sensing of natural hazards over a number of spatial and temporal scales. The most useful satellite imagery for the assessment of earthquake damage comes from high-resolution (0.6 m to 1 m pixel size) passive sensors and moderate resolution active sensors that can quantify the vertical and horizontal movement of the earth’s surface. High-resolution passive sensors have been used to successfully assess flood damage while predictive maps of flood vulnerability areas are possible based on physical variables collected from passive and active sensors. Recent moderate resolution sensors are able to provide near real time data on fires and provide quantitative data used in fire behavior models. Limitations currently exist due to atmospheric interference, pixel resolution, and revisit times. However, a number of new microsatellites and constellations of satellites will be launched in the next five years that contain increased resolution (0.5 m to 1 m pixel resolution for active sensors) and revisit times (daily ≤ 2.5 m resolution images from passive sensors) that will significantly improve our ability to assess and predict natural hazards from space. PMID:25170186

Assessing the indirect effects due to natural hazards on a mesoscale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfurtscheller, C.; Schwarze, R.

2009-04-01

Measuring indirect economic costs and other effects from natural hazards, especially floods in alpine and other mountainous regions, are a necessary part of a comprehensive economic assessment. Their omission seriously affects the relative economic benefits of structural or non structural measures of flood defence. Surpassing controversial, IO-model-based economic estimates, analysing indirect economic effects lead to the key question of identifying and evaluating the drivers of indirect economic effects and resilience to system effects in the regional economy, i.e. at the meso-level. This investigation takes place for the catastrophic floods in summer 2005 in the provinces of Tyrol and Vorarlberg, Austria, which caused an estimated € 670 Mio direct loss on private and public assets and severe interruptions in lifeline services. The paper starts out with differentiating the concept of indirect economic costs from direct costs, examing different temporal (short vs. long-term) and spatial (macro-, meso- vs. microeconomic) system boundaries. It surveys common theories of economic resilience and vulnerability at the regional economy level. Indirect effects at the regional economy level can be defined as interferences of the economic exchange of goods and services triggered by breakdowns of transport lines and critical production inputs. The extent and persistence of indirect effects of natural hazards is not only by parameters of the extreme event, such as duration and amplitude of the flood, but much more by resilience parameters of the regional economy such as size of enterprises, the network structure (linkages) of the regional economy, availability of insurance and relief funds, and the stock of inventory. These effects can only be dissected by means of expert judgement and event studies. This paper presents the results of a survey conducted among business practioneers, members of chamber of commerce, civil protection agencies to identify and scale the drivers of

Economic and Ethical Consequences of Natural Hazards in Alpine Valleys (EE-Con)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortner, Florian; Brantl, Dirk; Meyer, Lukas; Steininger, Karl; Sass, Oliver

2015-04-01

The Alps and their population are particularly vulnerable to geomorphological and hydrological hazards and this problem might be amplified by ongoing climate change. Natural disasters cause severe monetary damage which often leads to the difficult question whether it socially pays to protect settlements at high costs or whether alternatively settlement areas should better be abandoned. By investigations in the Johnsbachtal and the Kleinsölktal (Styria), the interdisciplinary project "Economic and Ethical Consequences of Natural Hazards in Alpine Valleys" (EE-Con), funded by the Austrian Academy of Sciences, seeks to answer the following questions: (1) Are natural hazards and associated damages in fact increasing, and is this due to meteorological triggers, to anthropogenic factors or to internal process dynamics? (2) What is the perception and knowledge of local people, how is risk and risk prevention communicated? (3) What is the respective cost ratio between protection infrastructure, soft measures of adaptation and other options (e.g. reduction of settlement area)? (4) What legitimate claims to compensation do people have, how far does societal responsibility go and where does individual responsibility start if parts of the settlement area had to be abandoned? These questions will be tackled in an interdisciplinary cooperation between geography, economics and normative theory (philosophy). EE-Con will follow broadly the path of risk analysis and risk assessment, focusing on the temporal dimension (past - present - future) with the aim to unravel the history of natural hazards in the areas and to analyse the economic values involved. In the following, natural hazard scenarios for the future (2050 and 2100) will be developed considering the economic consequences. Besides this, the project deals with local knowledge, risk perception and risk communication, which will be investigated via group interviews and stakeholder workshops and be integrated into a human

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model with Hazus to analyse risk from natural hazard events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinitz, Laura B.; Taketa, Richard A.

2013-01-01

This paper describes and demonstrates the integration of two geospatial decision-support systems for natural-hazard risk assessment and management. Hazus is a risk-assessment tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to identify risks and estimate the severity of risk from natural hazards. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) is a risk-management tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate plans or actions intended to reduce risk from natural hazards. We analysed three mitigation policies for one earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay area to demonstrate the added value of using Hazus and the LUPM together. The demonstration showed that Hazus loss estimates can be input to the LUPM to obtain estimates of losses avoided through mitigation, rates of return on mitigation investment, and measures of uncertainty. Together, they offer a more comprehensive approach to help with decisions for reducing risk from natural hazards.

Monitoring and characterizing natural hazards with satellite InSAR imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Zhong; Zhang, Jixian; Zhang, Yonghong; Dzurisin, Daniel

2010-01-01

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) provides an all-weather imaging capability for measuring ground-surface deformation and inferring changes in land surface characteristics. InSAR enables scientists to monitor and characterize hazards posed by volcanic, seismic, and hydrogeologic processes, by landslides and wildfires, and by human activities such as mining and fluid extraction or injection. Measuring how a volcano’s surface deforms before, during, and after eruptions provides essential information about magma dynamics and a basis for mitigating volcanic hazards. Measuring spatial and temporal patterns of surface deformation in seismically active regions is extraordinarily useful for understanding rupture dynamics and estimating seismic risks. Measuring how landslides develop and activate is a prerequisite to minimizing associated hazards. Mapping surface subsidence or uplift related to extraction or injection of fluids during exploitation of groundwater aquifers or petroleum reservoirs provides fundamental data on aquifer or reservoir properties and improves our ability to mitigate undesired consequences. Monitoring dynamic water-level changes in wetlands improves hydrological modeling predictions and the assessment of future flood impacts. In addition, InSAR imagery can provide near-real-time estimates of fire scar extents and fire severity for wildfire management and control. All-weather satellite radar imagery is critical for studying various natural processes and is playing an increasingly important role in understanding and forecasting natural hazards.

Industrial Accidents Triggered by Natural Hazards: an Emerging Risk Issue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Basco, Anna; Salzano, Ernesto; Cozzani, Valerio

2010-05-01

Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, flooding or hurricanes have recently and dramatically hit several countries worldwide. Both direct and indirect consequences involved the population, causing on the one hand a high number of fatalities and on the other hand so relevant economical losses that the national gross product may be affected for many years. Loss of critical industrial infrastructures (electricity generation and distribution, gas pipelines, oil refineries, etc.) also occurred, causing further indirect damage to the population. In several cases, accident scenarios with large releases of hazardous materials were triggered by these natural events, causing so-called "Natech events", in which the overall damage resulted from the simultaneous consequences of the natural event and of the release of hazardous substances. Toxic releases, large fires and explosions, as well as possible long-term environmental pollution, economical losses, and overloading of emergency systems were recognised by post-event studies as the main issues of these Natech scenarios. In recent years the increasing frequency and severity of some natural hazards due to climate change has slowly increased the awareness of Natech risk as an emerging risk among the stakeholders. Indeed, the iNTeg-Risk project, co-funded by the European Commission within the 7th Framework Program specifically addresses these scenarios among new technological issues on public safety. The present study, in part carried out within the iNTeg-Risk project, was aimed at the analysis and further development of methods and tools for the assessment and mitigation of Natech accidents. Available tools and knowledge gaps in the assessment of Natech scenarios were highlighted. The analysis mainly addressed the potential impact of flood, lightning and earthquake events on industrial installations where hazardous substances are present. Preliminary screening methodologies and more detailed methods based on

Atlas of natural hazards in the Hawaiian coastal zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fletcher, Charles H.; Grossman, Eric E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Gibbs, Ann E.

2002-01-01

The purpose of this report is to communicate to citizens and regulatory authorities the history and relative intensity of coastal hazards in Hawaii. This information is the key to the wise use and management of coastal resources. The information contained in this document,we hope,will improve the ability of Hawaiian citizens and visitors to safely enjoy the coast and provide a strong data set for planners and managers to guide the future of coastal resources. This work is largely based on previous investigations by scientific and engineering researchers and county, state, and federal offices and agencies. The unique aspect of this report is that, to the extent possible, it assimilates prior efforts in documenting Hawaiian coastal hazards and combines existing knowledge into a single comprehensive coastal hazard data set. This is by no means the final word on coastal hazards in Hawaii. Every hazardous phenomenon described here, and others such as slope failure and rocky shoreline collapse, need to be more carefully quantified, forecast, and mitigated. Our ultimate goal, of course, is to make the Hawaiian coast a safer place by educating the people of the state, and their leaders, about the hazardous nature of the environment. In so doing, we will also be taking steps toward improved preservation of coastal environments, because the best way to avoid coastal hazards is to avoid inappropriate development in the coastal zone. We have chosen maps as the medium for both recording and communicating the hazard history and its intensity along the Hawaiian coast.Two types of maps are used: 1) smallscale maps showing a general history of hazards on each island and summarizing coastal hazards in a readily understandable format for general use, and 2) a large-scale series of technical maps (1:50,000) depicting coastal sections approximately 5 to 7 miles in length with color bands along the coast ranking the relative intensity of each hazard at the adjacent shoreline.

Dancing with Nature: Rhythm and Harmony in Extreme Sport Participation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brymer, Eric; Gray, Tonia

2009-01-01

Research on extreme sports has downplayed the importance of the athletes' connection to the natural world. This neglect stems, in part, from the assumption that these activities derive their meaning primarily from risk. The authors' long-term research reveals that the interplay between adventure athletes and the natural world is, in fact, crucial…

Fast Risk Assessment Software For Natural Hazard Phenomena Using Georeference Population And Infrastructure Data Bases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrero, J. M.; Pastor Paz, J. E.; Erazo, C.; Marrero, M.; Aguilar, J.; Yepes, H. A.; Estrella, C. M.; Mothes, P. A.

2015-12-01

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) requires an integrated multi-hazard assessment approach towards natural hazard mitigation. In the case of volcanic risk, long term hazard maps are generally developed on a basis of the most probable scenarios (likelihood of occurrence) or worst cases. However, in the short-term, expected scenarios may vary substantially depending on the monitoring data or new knowledge. In this context, the time required to obtain and process data is critical for optimum decision making. Availability of up-to-date volcanic scenarios is as crucial as it is to have this data accompanied by efficient estimations of their impact among populations and infrastructure. To address this impact estimation during volcanic crises, or other natural hazards, a web interface has been developed to execute an ANSI C application. This application allows one to compute - in a matter of seconds - the demographic and infrastructure impact that any natural hazard may cause employing an overlay-layer approach. The web interface is tailored to users involved in the volcanic crises management of Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador). The population data base and the cartographic basis used are of public domain, published by the National Office of Statistics of Ecuador (INEC, by its Spanish acronym). To run the application and obtain results the user is expected to upload a raster file containing information related to the volcanic hazard or any other natural hazard, and determine categories to group population or infrastructure potentially affected. The results are displayed in a user-friendly report.

RiskScape: a new tool for comparing risk from natural hazards (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stirling, M. W.; King, A.

2010-12-01

The Regional RiskScape is New Zealand’s joint venture between GNS Science & NIWA, and represents a comprehensive and easy-to-use tool for multi-hazard-based risk and impact analysis. It has basic GIS functionality, in that it has Import/Export functions to use with GIS software. Five natural hazards have been implemented in Riskscape to date: Flood (river), earthquake, volcano (ash), tsunami and wind storm. The software converts hazard exposure information into the likely impacts for a region, for example, damage and replacement costs, casualties, economic losses, disruption, and number of people affected. It therefore can be used to assist with risk management, land use planning, building codes and design, risk identification, prioritization of risk-reduction/mitigation, determination of “best use” risk-reduction investment, evacuation and contingency planning, awareness raising, public information, realistic scenarios for exercises, and hazard event response. Three geographically disparate pilot regions have been used to develop and triall Riskscape in New Zealand, and each region is exposed to a different mix of natural hazards. Future (phase II) development of Riskscape will include the following hazards: Landslides (both rainfall and earthquake triggered), storm surges, pyroclastic flows and lahars, and climate change effects. While Riskscape developments have thus far focussed on scenario-based risk, future developments will advance the software into providing probabilistic-based solutions.

40 CFR 355.16 - How do I determine the quantity of extremely hazardous substances present for certain forms of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... quantity of extremely hazardous substance present: (a) Solid in powdered form with a particle size less than 100 microns. Multiply the weight percent of solid with a particle size less than 100 microns in a...

40 CFR 355.16 - How do I determine the quantity of extremely hazardous substances present for certain forms of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... quantity of extremely hazardous substance present: (a) Solid in powdered form with a particle size less than 100 microns. Multiply the weight percent of solid with a particle size less than 100 microns in a...

40 CFR 355.16 - How do I determine the quantity of extremely hazardous substances present for certain forms of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... quantity of extremely hazardous substance present: (a) Solid in powdered form with a particle size less than 100 microns. Multiply the weight percent of solid with a particle size less than 100 microns in a...

40 CFR 355.16 - How do I determine the quantity of extremely hazardous substances present for certain forms of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... quantity of extremely hazardous substance present: (a) Solid in powdered form with a particle size less than 100 microns. Multiply the weight percent of solid with a particle size less than 100 microns in a...

40 CFR 355.16 - How do I determine the quantity of extremely hazardous substances present for certain forms of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... quantity of extremely hazardous substance present: (a) Solid in powdered form with a particle size less than 100 microns. Multiply the weight percent of solid with a particle size less than 100 microns in a...

Geoethics: the responsibility of geoscientists in making society more aware of natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peppoloni, S.; Matteucci, R.; Piacente, S.; Wasowski, J.

2012-04-01

The damage due to geological hazards, with frequent loss of human lives, is not entirely avoidable, but can be greatly reduced through the correct land use that respects the natural processes, through prevention and mitigation efforts, through an effective and correct information to the population. Often not responsible behaviors by politicians, as well as the need for heavy investments and the lack of information make difficult the solution of problems and slow the path to a proper management of the environment, the only way to provide a significant mitigation of damages of the geological disasters. In many countries (including Italy) the importance of the Geoscientists's role is not yet sufficiently recognized, despite it is evident the necessity of a greater attention to geological problems by policy makers and public opinion, as well as a more adequate information about natural risks to the society. The commitment to ensure prevention and mitigation of geological hazards must be considered an ethical value and duty for those who possess the appropriate knowledge and skills. Within the above context, Geoscientists have a key role to play as experts in analyzing and managing the territory's vulnerability: they must take responsibility to share and communicate their knowledge more effectively with all private and public stakeholders involved, paying attention to providing balanced information about risks and addressing inevitable uncertainties in natural hazard mapping, assessment, warning, and forecasting. But Geoscientists need to be more aware of their ethical responsibility, of their social duty to serve the society, care about and protect territory, and to facilitate the desirable shift from a culture of emergency to a culture of prevention. The search for balance between short-term economic issues and wider social impacts from natural hazards is an increasingly urgent need. Geoethics must be central to society's responses to natural hazard threats.

Natural Hazard Resilience - A Large-scale Transdisciplinary "National Science Challenge" for New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cronin, S. J.

2017-12-01

The National Science Challenges are initiatives to address the most important public science issues that face New Zealand with long-term funding and the combined strength of a coordinated science-sector behind them. Eleven major topics are tackled, across our human, natural and built environments. In the "Resilience Challenge" we address New Zealand's natural hazards. Alongside severe metrological threats, New Zealand also faces one of the highest levels of earthquake and volcanic hazard in the world. Resilience is a hotly discussed concept, here, we take the view: Resilience encapsulates the features of a system to anticipate threats, acknowledge there will be impacts (no matter how prepared we are), quickly pick up the pieces, as well as learn and adapt from the experience to better absorb and rebound from future shocks. Our research must encompass innovation in building and lifelines engineering, planning and regulation, emergency management practice, alongside understanding how our natural hazard systems work, how we monitor them and how our communities/governance/industries can be influenced and encouraged (e.g., via economic incentives) to develop and implement resilience practice. This is a complex interwoven mix of areas and is best addressed through case-study areas where researchers and the users of the research can jointly identify problems and co-develop science solutions. I will highlight some of the strengths and weaknesses of this coordinated approach to an all-hazard, all-country problem, using the example of the Resilience Challenge approach after its first two and a half years of operation. Key issues include balancing investment into high-profile (and often high consequence), but rare hazards against the frequent "monthly" hazards that collectively occupy regional and local governance. Also, it is clear that despite increasingly sophisticated hazard and hazard mitigation knowledge being generated in engineering and social areas, a range of policy

Assessing social capacity and vulnerability of private households to natural hazards - integrating psychological and governance factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werg, J.; Grothmann, T.; Schmidt, P.

2013-06-01

People are unequally affected by extreme weather events in terms of mortality, morbidity and financial losses; this is the case not only for developing, but also for industrialized countries. Previous research has established indicators for identifying who is particularly vulnerable and why, focusing on socio-demographic factors such as income, age, gender, health and minority status. However, these factors can only partly explain the large disparities in the extent to which people are affected by natural hazards. Moreover, these factors are usually not alterable in the short to medium term, which limits their usefulness for strategies of reducing social vulnerability and building social capacity. Based on a literature review and an expert survey, we propose an approach for refining assessments of social vulnerability and building social capacity by integrating psychological and governance factors.

Final Rule: Extremely Hazardous Substance List and Threshold Planning Quantities; Emergency Planning and Release Notification Requirements (52 FR 13378)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

April 22, 1987: This FR established the list of extremely hazardous substances (EHSs) and their threshold planning quantities (TPQs). Also codified reporting and notification requirements for facilities with EHS. Do not use for current compliance purposes.

Forecasting natural hazards, performance of scientists, ethics, and the need for transparency

PubMed Central

Guzzetti, Fausto

2016-01-01

Landslides are one of several natural hazards. As other natural hazards, landslides are difficult to predict, and their forecasts are uncertain. The uncertainty depends on the poor understanding of the phenomena that control the slope failures, and on the inherent complexity and chaotic nature of the landslides. This is similar to other natural hazards, including hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, and droughts. Due to the severe impact of landslides on the population, the environment, and the economy, forecasting landslides is of scientific interest and of societal relevance, and scientists attempting to forecast landslides face known and new problems intrinsic to the multifaceted interactions between science, decision-making, and the society. The problems include deciding on the authority and reliability of individual scientists and groups of scientists, and evaluating the performances of individual scientists, research teams, and their institutions. Related problems lay in the increasing subordination of research scientists to politics and decision-makers, and in the conceptual and operational models currently used to organize and pay for research, based on apparently objective criteria and metrics, considering science as any other human endeavor, and favoring science that produces results of direct and immediate application. The paper argues that the consequences of these problems have not been considered fully. PMID:27695154

Forecasting natural hazards, performance of scientists, ethics, and the need for transparency.

PubMed

Guzzetti, Fausto

2016-10-20

Landslides are one of several natural hazards. As other natural hazards, landslides are difficult to predict, and their forecasts are uncertain. The uncertainty depends on the poor understanding of the phenomena that control the slope failures, and on the inherent complexity and chaotic nature of the landslides. This is similar to other natural hazards, including hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, and droughts. Due to the severe impact of landslides on the population, the environment, and the economy, forecasting landslides is of scientific interest and of societal relevance, and scientists attempting to forecast landslides face known and new problems intrinsic to the multifaceted interactions between science, decision-making, and the society. The problems include deciding on the authority and reliability of individual scientists and groups of scientists, and evaluating the performances of individual scientists, research teams, and their institutions. Related problems lay in the increasing subordination of research scientists to politics and decision-makers, and in the conceptual and operational models currently used to organize and pay for research, based on apparently objective criteria and metrics, considering science as any other human endeavor, and favoring science that produces results of direct and immediate application. The paper argues that the consequences of these problems have not been considered fully.

Natural Hazards Observer. Volume XXII, Number 3. January 1998.

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-01-01

National Science Foundation , Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Forest Service, Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Department of Transportation, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Institute for Business and Home Safety. The Natural Hazards Observer is published

40 CFR 355.14 - Do I have to aggregate extremely hazardous substances to determine the total quantity present?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Do I have to aggregate extremely hazardous substances to determine the total quantity present? 355.14 Section 355.14 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO...

Natural hazards knowledge and risk perception of Wujie indigenous community in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roder, Giulia; Ruljigaljig, Tjuku; Lin, Ching-Weei; Tarolli, Paolo

2015-04-01

The purpose of this work is to investigate the natural hazard knowledge and risk perception of Wujie indigenous community, located in Fazhi Village in the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan. Taiwan has encountered many different types of natural hazards (e.g. landslides and debris flows) that have increased sharply in the last century. Because of that, they are one of the most critical issues for the government and for the people living in mountainous areas. These areas are mainly populated by indigenous people that have experienced economic competition and military conflict with a series of colonizing periods causing a progressive loss of their original cultural identity. The motivation of selecting the case study of Wujie community is because (i) it has suffered, more than others, generations of devastating colonial oppression by foreign governments; (ii) the consequences of hydroelectric projects that moved a lot of water and sediment to the valley and modified the path of the river through the years; (iii) the documented landslides and debris flows occurred in the region during the last decades. Two questions appear spontaneously: How indigenous people are nowadays living with natural hazards? Have land use change or any other human footprint affected their knowledge and perception on natural hazards? This research, the first carried out in Taiwan involving an indigenous community, can offer a unique opportunity to answer these questions. The investigation utilized a variety of participatory methods conducted at the household and community level by the use of 65 face-to-face interviews. Results revealed that residents felt a higher worry about landslide and flood risks, and a slight preparedness to face them. This discrepancy may derive from an unsatisfactory level of communication and information, and the most considerable differences were found between the evaluations of individual subjects as opposed to overall communities. Results revealed also the complexity

Risk prediction of Critical Infrastructures against extreme natural hazards: local and regional scale analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosato, Vittorio; Hounjet, Micheline; Burzel, Andreas; Di Pietro, Antonio; Tofani, Alberto; Pollino, Maurizio; Giovinazzi, Sonia

2016-04-01

Natural hazard events can induce severe impacts on the built environment; they can hit wide and densely populated areas, where there is a large number of (inter)dependent technological systems whose damages could cause the failure or malfunctioning of further different services, spreading the impacts on wider geographical areas. The EU project CIPRNet (Critical Infrastructures Preparedness and Resilience Research Network) is realizing an unprecedented Decision Support System (DSS) which enables to operationally perform risk prediction on Critical Infrastructures (CI) by predicting the occurrence of natural events (from long term weather to short nowcast predictions, correlating intrinsic vulnerabilities of CI elements with the different events' manifestation strengths, and analysing the resulting Damage Scenario. The Damage Scenario is then transformed into an Impact Scenario, where punctual CI element damages are transformed into micro (local area) or meso (regional) scale Services Outages. At the smaller scale, the DSS simulates detailed city models (where CI dependencies are explicitly accounted for) that are of important input for crisis management organizations whereas, at the regional scale by using approximate System-of-Systems model describing systemic interactions, the focus is on raising awareness. The DSS has allowed to develop a novel simulation framework for predicting earthquakes shake maps originating from a given seismic event, considering the shock wave propagation in inhomogeneous media and the subsequent produced damages by estimating building vulnerabilities on the basis of a phenomenological model [1, 2]. Moreover, in presence of areas containing river basins, when abundant precipitations are expected, the DSS solves the hydrodynamic 1D/2D models of the river basins for predicting the flux runoff and the corresponding flood dynamics. This calculation allows the estimation of the Damage Scenario and triggers the evaluation of the Impact Scenario

Using systems gaming to explore decision-making under uncertainty in natural hazard crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaughey, Jamie W.; Finnigan, David

2017-04-01

Faced with uncertain scientific forecasts of a potential hazard, it is perhaps natural to wait and see. As we wait, uncertainties do decrease, but so do our options to minimise impacts of the hazard. This tradeoff is fundamental to preparing for natural hazards, yet difficult to communicate. Interactive systems gaming is one promising way forward. We are developing in-person interactive games, drawing on role-playing and other table-top scenario exercises in natural hazards, as well as on game-based modeling of complex systems. Our games model an unfolding natural hazard crisis (such as volcanic unrest or an approaching typhoon) as a complex social-physical system. Participants take on the roles of diverse stakeholder groups (including government, scientists, media, farmers, city residents, and others) with differing expertise, responsibilities, and priorities. Interactions among these groups play out in a context of decreasing scientific uncertainty and decreasing options for actions to reduce societal risk. Key design challenges are (1) to engage players without trivialising the real-world context; (2) to provide the right level of guidance for players to navigate the system; and (3) to enable players to face realistic tradeoffs and see realistic consequences of their choices, without feeling frustrated that the game is set up for them to fail. We will first prototype the games with general public and secondary-school participants, then adjust this for specialist groups working in disaster management. We will illustrate participatory systems gaming techniques in our presentation 'A toolkit of systems gaming techniques' in the companion EGU session EOS6: 'Perform! A platform to discuss art & science projects with live presentation'.

Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shandro, Bret; Haegeli, Pascal

2018-04-01

The snow and avalanche climate types maritime, continental and transitional are well established and have been used extensively to characterize the general nature of avalanche hazard at a location, study inter-seasonal and large-scale spatial variabilities and provide context for the design of avalanche safety operations. While researchers and practitioners have an experience-based understanding of the avalanche hazard associated with the three climate types, no studies have described the hazard character of an avalanche climate in detail. Since the 2009/2010 winter, the consistent use of Statham et al. (2017) conceptual model of avalanche hazard in public avalanche bulletins in Canada has created a new quantitative record of avalanche hazard that offers novel opportunities for addressing this knowledge gap. We identified typical daily avalanche hazard situations using self-organizing maps (SOMs) and then calculated seasonal prevalence values of these situations. This approach produces a concise characterization that is conducive to statistical analyses, but still provides a comprehensive picture that is informative for avalanche risk management due to its link to avalanche problem types. Hazard situation prevalence values for individual seasons, elevations bands and forecast regions provide unprecedented insight into the inter-seasonal and spatial variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada.

40 CFR 355.13 - How do I calculate the quantity of an extremely hazardous substance present in mixtures?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false How do I calculate the quantity of an extremely hazardous substance present in mixtures? 355.13 Section 355.13 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS...

Public sentiment and movement patterns during natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Q.; Guo, C.

2017-12-01

Recently, we have unfortunately witnessed a series of deadly hurricane events, including Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria and Nate. Effective disaster management actions such as getting citizen sheltered and evacuated can significantly reduce injuries and fatalities. A more comprehensive understanding of citizen's perceptions (e.g., sentiment) about a disaster and movement behaviors (e.g., evacuation) will help improve disaster management and decision making during natural hazards. With the popularity of various social media platforms (i.e. Twitter), there has been great potentials in using social media data to detect and analyze citizen's perceptions and moving behaviors before, during and after a natural hazard. Using the geo-tagged tweets generated during recent hurricane events, the study will examine the movement interactions between citizens and a hurricane and also explore citizens' tweeting behaviors and sentiments at different stages of a disaster. The results provide insights on understanding 1) spatiotemporal patterns of public movements (i.e., when and where did people's movements happen), 2) how were people's movements related to the hurricane trajectory, 3) when did people in different locations start to pay attention to the hurricane, and finally 4) how were the sentiments of people in different places towards the hurricane during different disaster stages.

Natural Hazards and the press in the western Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llasat-Botija, M.; Llasat, M. C.; López, L.

2007-07-01

This study analyses press articles published between 1982 and 2005 in an attempt to describe the social perception of natural hazards in Catalonia. The articles included in the database have been classified according to different types of risk. In addition, the study examines the evolution of each type of risk in the press coverage during the study period. Finally, the results have been compared to data provided by insurance companies with respect to compensations paid out for damages. Conclusions show that floods are the most important natural hazard in the region, but that the number of headlines for each event is greater in the case of snowfalls and forest fires. Factors such as the season of the year, the proximity of the affected region to the capital, the topical issues at the time, and the presence of other important news must be considered when the impact in the press is analysed.

Multi-satellite Mission in China for Monitoring Natural Hazards (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, H.

2013-12-01

The impacts of natural hazards are continuing to increase around the world, and mitigation of the damages caused by natural hazards like floods, droughts, earthquakes, and cyclones has been a global challenge. Current evidence demonstrates there are many kinds of technologies for natural hazard management, but space technology is recognized as one of the most effective means. After 30 years of development, China has become an important member of the global remote sensing community. China has successfully developed an Earth observation system consisting of meteorological satellites, resources satellites, ocean satellites, environment and disaster monitoring satellites, micro-satellites, navigation satellites, and manned spacecraft. In this presentation, a short overview of China's Earth observation satellite missions will be presented. Specifically, the Small Satellite Constellation for Environment and Disaster Monitoring and Forecasting (SSCEDMF) will be introduced and discussed. SSCEDMF is a follow-up '4+4' satellite constellation including four optical satellites and four radar satellites, meant to improve disaster management capability in China. At the current stage, two optical satellites and an s-band synthetic aperture radar satellite have successfully launched. Disasters are a global issue that no country can address individually, requiring sharing and collaboration. China has benefited greatly from international collaboration in disaster mitigation, and has actively worked with international partners. To share our experience in dealing with the risk of disasters, some achievements and progress in space technology applications for disaster management will be introduced. In addition, collaborative activities with IRDR, the UN-SPIDER Beijing Office, and the CAS-TWAS Centre of Excellence on Space Technology for Disaster Mitigation (STDM) will be described.

Teleplaneta: a 7 year-long effort to spread natural hazard's knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvo, David; Álvarez, Domingo; Marrero, Nieves; Pérez, Nemesio M.

2016-04-01

One of the main and toughest goals for a geoscientist is to have a properly communication with the society when the time comes for showing results, scientific advances or whatever kind of remarkable event. The complexity of the scientific terminology, and the existence of a few communication channels, often prevents lay people to know about how the advance of science is occurring or how new discoveries are helping us to have a better understanding about the Planet Earth. In that respect, mass media provide the most powerful tool to enhance this communication, both radio and TV broadcasting, since the wealth of Earth-sciences' related information available on issues like global climate, water, energy and natural hazards remain largely unknown to the public and often untapped by policy and decision makers. Almost 75% of the Earth population lives in areas that had been hit, at least once in the last 20 years, by earthquakes, severe storms, flooding or droughts. TELEPLANETA is a joint effort of the Spanish National Public Television in the Canary Islands (RTVE-Canarias) and the Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias (INVOLCAN) for raising public awareness of the impact of these natural hazards in the society, with an understandable language away from too much technical terms but basically avoiding the gruesome side of this kind of events. TELEPLANETA tries to give a scientific explanation of why these hazards occur, focusing on the visual communication with the viewers. This weekly TV program is broadcasted through the worldwide coverage news channel - 24 Hours Channel - of the Spanish National Public TV (TVE). Actually immersed on our 7th season, TELEPLANETA has gone through a challenging improvement, from a barely 4 minute outsider program to a 20 minutes long, full enhanced TV show. We actually provide accurate information about natural hazards, but also a weekly review of twitteŕs best pictures and comments regarding nature, as well as scientific report at the most

Cost assessment of natural hazards in Europe - state-of-the-art, knowledge gaps and recommendations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, V.; Becker, N.; Markantonis, V.; Schwarze, R.; van den Bergh, J. C. J. M.; Bouwer, L. M.; Bubeck, P.; Ciavola, P.; Thieken, A. H.; Genovese, E.; Green, C.; Hallegatte, S.; Kreibich, H.; Lequeux, Q.; Viavattenne, C.; Logar, I.; Papyrakis, E.; Pfurtscheller, C.; Poussin, J.; Przyluski, V.

2012-04-01

Effective and efficient reduction of natural hazard risks requires a thorough understanding of the costs of natural hazards in order to develop sustainable risk management strategies. The current methods that assess the costs of different natural hazards employ a diversity of terminologies and approaches for different hazards and impacted sectors. This makes it difficult to arrive at robust, comprehensive and comparable cost figures. The CONHAZ (Costs of Natural Hazards) project aimed to compile and synthesise current knowledge on cost assessment methods in order to strengthen the role of cost assessments in the development of integrated natural hazard management and adaptation planning. In order to achieve this, CONHAZ has adopted a comprehensive approach, considering natural hazards ranging from droughts, floods and coastal hazards to Alpine hazards, as well as different impacted sectors and cost types. Its specific objectives have been 1) to compile the state-of-the-art methods for cost assessment; 2) to analyse and assess these methods in terms of technical aspects, as well as terminology, data quality and availability, and research gaps; and 3) to synthesise resulting knowledge into recommendations and to identify further research needs. This presentation summarises the main results of CONHAZ. CONHAZ differentiates between direct tangible damages, losses due to business interruption, indirect damages, intangible effects, and costs of risk mitigation. It is shown that the main focus of cost assessment methods and their application in practice is on direct costs, while existing methods for assessing intangible and indirect effects are rather rarely applied and methods for assessing indirect effects often cannot be used on the scale of interest (e.g. the regional scale). Furthermore, methods often focus on single sectors and/or hazards, and only very few are able to reflect several sectors or multiple hazards. Process understanding and its use in cost assessment

40 CFR Appendix B to Part 355 - The List of Extremely Hazardous Substances and Their Threshold Planning Quantities

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false The List of Extremely Hazardous Substances and Their Threshold Planning Quantities B Appendix B to Part 355 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS EMERGENCY PLANNING AND NOTIFICATION Pt....

40 CFR Appendix A to Part 355 - The List of Extremely Hazardous Substances and Their Threshold Planning Quantities

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false The List of Extremely Hazardous Substances and Their Threshold Planning Quantities A Appendix A to Part 355 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS EMERGENCY PLANNING AND NOTIFICATION Pt....

40 CFR Appendix A to Part 355 - The List of Extremely Hazardous Substances and Their Threshold Planning Quantities

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false The List of Extremely Hazardous Substances and Their Threshold Planning Quantities A Appendix A to Part 355 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS EMERGENCY PLANNING AND NOTIFICATION Pt....

40 CFR Appendix B to Part 355 - The List of Extremely Hazardous Substances and Their Threshold Planning Quantities

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false The List of Extremely Hazardous Substances and Their Threshold Planning Quantities B Appendix B to Part 355 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS EMERGENCY PLANNING AND NOTIFICATION Pt....

Deaths in natural hazards in the solomon islands.

PubMed

Blong, R J; Radford, D A

1993-03-01

Archival and library search techniques have been used to establish extensive databases on deaths and damage resulting from natural hazards in the Solomon Islands. Although the records of fatalities are certainly incomplete, volcanic eruptions, tropical cyclones, landslides, tsunami and earthquakes appear to have been the most important. Only 22 per cent of the recorded deaths have resulted from meteorological hazards but a single event could change this proportion significantly. Five events in the fatality database account for 88 per cent of the recorded deaths. Future death tolls are also likely to be dominated by a small number of events. While the expected number of deaths in a given period is dependent upon the length of record considered, it is clear that a disaster which kills one hundred or more people in the Solomons can be expected more frequently than once in a hundred years.

A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extreme Heat Vulnerability Across the United States using Geospatial Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoessow, F. S.; Li, Y.; Howe, P. D.

2016-12-01

Extreme heat events are the deadliest natural hazard in the United States and are expected to increase in both severity and frequency in the coming years due to the effects of climate change. The risks of climate change and weather-related events such as heat waves to a population can be more comprehensively assessed by coupling the traditional examination of natural hazards using remote sensing and geospatial analysis techniques with human vulnerability factors and individual perceptions of hazards. By analyzing remote-sensed and empirical survey data alongside national hazards advisories, this study endeavors to establish a nationally-representative baseline quantifying the spatiotemporal variation of individual heat vulnerabilities at multiple scales and between disparate population groups affected by their unique socioenvironmental factors. This is of immediate academic interest because the study of heat waves risk perceptions remains relatively unexplored - despite the intensification of extreme heat events. The use of "human sensors", georeferenced & timestamped individual response data, provides invaluable contextualized data at a high spatial resolution, which will enable policy-makers to more effectively implement targeted strategies for risk prevention, mitigation, and communication. As climate change risks are further defined, this cognizance will help identify vulnerable populations and enhance national hazard preparedness and recovery frameworks.

Towards a common formalization of resilience and vulnerability to natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rougé, Charles; Mathias, Jean-Denis; Deffuant, Guillaume

2015-04-01

Resilience and vulnerability are two widely-used concepts when it comes to describe the potential impacts of natural hazards on a social and ecological system. They are an attractive way to communicate both with stakeholders and between the different disciplinary fields that use them in that context. Therefore, a formal definition of the concepts is warranted so as to provide a non-ambiguous reference for discussion and avoid misunderstandings. Besides, such a formalization should strive to formalize both concepts together so as to use their complimentarity. This abstract uses a stochastic controlled dynamical system formulation to propose a common framework for the definition of both resilience and vulnerability. Stochasticity represents all sources of uncertainty post-hazard, and the hazard is assumed to be an exogenous input. This mathematical representation highlights how the interplay between a natural hazard, the system's dynamic and the possible action policies influence the final outcome after the hazard hits. It also clarifies the role of normative choices in defining indicators that may inform or guide the system's management. More importantly, we demonstrate how the proposed framework may serve as a basis to generate indicators that are representative of general definitions of the concepts, yet flexible enough to be easily adapted to very diverse situations. Resilience is the ability for the system to keep or recover its properties of interest after a perturbation, while vulnerability is defined in a most general way as a measure of future harm. The definition of vulnerability leads to a variety of possible indicators, and ultimately to the identification of safe configurations of the system. Being resilient is then the fact of returning to a safe configuration, and the probability of resilience is that of doing so within a pre-defined time frame. Then, indicators may be designed around the probability distribution of return times. We show how viability

Conceptualizing community resilience to natural hazards - the emBRACE framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruse, Sylvia; Abeling, Thomas; Deeming, Hugh; Fordham, Maureen; Forrester, John; Jülich, Sebastian; Nuray Karanci, A.; Kuhlicke, Christian; Pelling, Mark; Pedoth, Lydia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

2017-12-01

The level of community is considered to be vital for building disaster resilience. Yet, community resilience as a scientific concept often remains vaguely defined and lacks the guiding characteristics necessary for analysing and enhancing resilience on the ground. The emBRACE framework of community resilience presented in this paper provides a heuristic analytical tool for understanding, explaining and measuring community resilience to natural hazards. It was developed in an iterative process building on existing scholarly debates, on empirical case study work in five countries and on participatory consultation with community stakeholders where the framework was applied and ground-tested in different contexts and for different hazard types. The framework conceptualizes resilience across three core domains: (i) resources and capacities, (ii) actions and (iii) learning. These three domains are conceptualized as intrinsically conjoined within a whole. Community resilience is influenced by these integral elements as well as by extra-community forces comprising disaster risk governance and thus laws, policies and responsibilities on the one hand and on the other, the general societal context, natural and human-made disturbances and system change over time. The framework is a graphically rendered heuristic, which through application can assist in guiding the assessment of community resilience in a systematic way and identifying key drivers and barriers of resilience that affect any particular hazard-exposed community.

16 CFR 1302.4 - Banned hazardous products.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... BAN OF EXTREMELY FLAMMABLE CONTACT ADHESIVES § 1302.4 Banned hazardous products. Any extremely flammable contact adhesive and similar liquid or semiliquid consumer product as defined in § 1302.3 (b... hazardous product. In addition, any other extremely flammable contact adhesive and similar liquid or...

U.S. Geological Survey natural hazards science strategy: promoting the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Jones, Lucile M.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Neal, Christina A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Plunkett, Michael L.; Weaver, Craig S.; Wein, Anne; Perry, Suzanne C.

2013-01-01

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events. To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science. In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10–year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical

GIS-based probability assessment of natural hazards in forested landscapes of Central and South-Eastern Europe.

PubMed

Lorz, C; Fürst, C; Galic, Z; Matijasic, D; Podrazky, V; Potocic, N; Simoncic, P; Strauch, M; Vacik, H; Makeschin, F

2010-12-01

We assessed the probability of three major natural hazards--windthrow, drought, and forest fire--for Central and South-Eastern European forests which are major threats for the provision of forest goods and ecosystem services. In addition, we analyzed spatial distribution and implications for a future oriented management of forested landscapes. For estimating the probability of windthrow, we used rooting depth and average wind speed. Probabilities of drought and fire were calculated from climatic and total water balance during growing season. As an approximation to climate change scenarios, we used a simplified approach with a general increase of pET by 20%. Monitoring data from the pan-European forests crown condition program and observed burnt areas and hot spots from the European Forest Fire Information System were used to test the plausibility of probability maps. Regions with high probabilities of natural hazard are identified and management strategies to minimize probability of natural hazards are discussed. We suggest future research should focus on (i) estimating probabilities using process based models (including sensitivity analysis), (ii) defining probability in terms of economic loss, (iii) including biotic hazards, (iv) using more detailed data sets on natural hazards, forest inventories and climate change scenarios, and (v) developing a framework of adaptive risk management.

How to value protection from natural hazards - a step-by-step discrete choice approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olschewski, R.

2013-04-01

In mountainous regions, forests play a crucial role in protecting the local population from natural hazards. In cases where existing forests are destroyed, e.g. by wind throws or diseases, the protection function has to be restored through technical measures. To determine the willingness to pay (WTP) for protection against avalanches, a choice experiment has been conducted and different experiment specifications have been tested to determine possible impacts on the results. The present study contributes to a comprehensive assessment of protection measures, and helps to identify efficient solutions based on the judgement of the people potentially endangered by natural hazards. The stepwise approach has the advantage to gradually check data fit, thereby didactically showing an operational way of dealing with different model specifications. The detailed case study can serve as a manual for conducting choice experiments with a similar focus and demonstrates the suitability and caveats of this approach to value protection from natural hazards in general.

Study of Extreme Weather Hazards Using GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Shum, C. K.; Shang, K.; Guo, J.; Schwartz, F. W.; Akyılmaz, O.; Feng, W.; Forootan, E.; LIU, G.; Zhong, M.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather events significantly affect humans and economics in the region. Synoptic and timely observations of these abrupt meteoro-hydrological hazards would benefit disaster management and improve storm forecasting. Contemporary processing of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin-satellite data at monthly sampling would miss or under-sample abrupt events such as large ice storms with durations much shorter than a month. Here, we employ the energy balance approach processing GRACE Level 1 data, which is flexible to allow sub-monthly solutions at daily sampling covering the genesis and evolution of large winter storms. We studied the 2008 Southeast China snow and ice storm, which lasted from mid-January to mid-February, and affected 21 out of China's 34 provinces with heavy snows, ice and freezing rains, caused extensive damage and transportation disruption, displaced nearly 1.7 million people, and claimed 129 lives. We also investigated the devastating North America blizzard which occurred during late January through mid-February 2010. The massive accumulations of snow and ice in both storms slightly changed the gravity field of the Earth, and were sensitive to the GRACE satellite measurements, manifested as transient terrestrial water storage (TWS) change. We compared our solutions with other available high temporal frequency GRACE solutions. The GRACE observed total storage change for both storms are in good agreement with in situ precipitation measurements, and with GRACE observations clearly show the complex genesis, decline, strengthening and melting phases depicting the detailed evolution of these example large snow storms.

Multihazard risk analysis and disaster planning for emergency services as a basis for efficient provision in the case of natural hazards - case study municipality of Au, Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maltzkait, Anika; Pfurtscheller, Clemens

2014-05-01

Multihazard risk analysis and disaster planning for emergency services as a basis for efficient provision in the case of natural hazards - case study municipality of Au, Austria A. Maltzkait (1) & C. Pfurtscheller (1) (1) Institute for Interdisciplinary Mountain Research (IGF), Austrian Academy of Sciences, Innsbruck, Austria The extreme flood events of 2002, 2005 and 2013 in Austria underlined the importance of local emergency services being able to withstand and reduce the adverse impacts of natural hazards. Although for legal reasons municipal emergency and crisis management plans exist in Austria, they mostly do not cover risk analyses of natural hazards - a sound, comparable assessment to identify and evaluate risks. Moreover, total losses and operational emergencies triggered by natural hazards have increased in recent decades. Given sparse public funds, objective budget decisions are needed to ensure the efficient provision of operating resources, like personnel, vehicles and equipment in the case of natural hazards. We present a case study of the municipality of Au, Austria, which was hardly affected during the 2005 floods. Our approach is primarily based on a qualitative risk analysis, combining existing hazard plans, GIS data, field mapping and data on operational efforts of the fire departments. The risk analysis includes a map of phenomena discussed in a workshop with local experts and a list of risks as well as a risk matrix prepared at that workshop. On the basis for the exact requirements for technical and non-technical mitigation measures for each natural hazard risk were analysed in close collaboration with members of the municipal operation control and members of the local emergency services (fire brigade, Red Cross). The measures includes warning, evacuation and, technical interventions with heavy equipment and personnel. These results are used, first, to improve the municipal emergency and crisis management plan by providing a risk map, and a

Changing pattern of natural hazards due to extreme hydro-meteorological conditions (Apulia, southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polemio, Maurizio; Lonigro, Teresa

2013-04-01

Recent international researches have underlined the evidences of climate changes throughout the world. Among the consequences of climate change, there is the increase in the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters, such as droughts, windstorms, heat waves, landslides, floods and secondary floods (i.e. rapid accumulation or pounding of surface water with very low flow velocity). The Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) can be defined as the occurrence of one or more simultaneous aforementioned phenomena causing damages. They represent a serious problem, especially in DHE-prone areas with growing urbanisation. In these areas the increasing frequency of extreme hydrological events could be related to climate variations and/or urban development. The historical analysis of DHEs can support decision making and land-use planning, ultimately reducing natural risks. The paper proposes a methodology, based on both historical and time series approaches, used for describing the influence of climatic variability on the number of phenomena observed. The historical approach is finalised to collect phenomenon historical data. The historical flood and landslide data are important for the comprehension of the evolution of a study area and for the estimation of risk scenarios as a basis for civil protection purposes. Phenomenon historical data is useful for expanding the historical period of investigation in order to assess the occurrence trend of DHEs. The time series approach includes the collection and the statistical analysis of climatic and rainfall data (monthly rainfall, wet days, rainfall intensity, and temperature data together with the annual maximum of short-duration rainfall data, from 1 hour to 5 days), which are also used as a proxy for floods and landslides. The climatic and rainfall data are useful to characterise the climate variations and trends and to roughly assess the effects of these trends on river discharge and on the triggering of landslides. The time

Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model to Estimate Natural-Hazard Loss and Risk - A Hypothetical Demonstration for Ventura County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinitz, Laura B.

2008-01-01

With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS

A framework for profiling the characteristics of risk governance in natural hazard contexts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, G.; Tweed, F.; Whittle, R.

2014-01-01

Over recent decades there have been moves away from traditional forms of government towards broader practices of "governance". These moves are as relevant to the handling of natural hazards as they are to other societal concerns. Key characteristics of such changes include the emergence of multi-level governance processes, shifts away from the exercise of centralised authority towards the involvement and collaboration of a multiplicity of actors, the creation of new forms of authority and control, and changing distributions of responsibilities between the state and other actors. However, the extent to which these shifts have taken place across the varied national contexts in Europe and can be observed specifically in relation to the governance of natural hazards is not at all clear. Such developments may also be evaluated in different ways; where some might see progressive reforms, others might see damaging undermining of established arrangements. In this paper, we propose a risk governance profiling framework that can be used to draw out the key characteristics of the ways in which natural hazards are governed in a particular governance setting. The framework can be flexibly applied in relation to a specific hazard and national, regional or local context, and enables qualitative profiling across a spectrum of eight key governance characteristics. Past trends and likely future changes can also be represented. We discuss the formulation of this framework as well as giving examples of profiles for different hazards in different parts of Europe. We suggest ways in which comparisons can be made between governance profiles, providing a stimulus and focus for debate and discussion around the trends of change in governance practice that have been, and are continuing, to take place.

Logistic regression applied to natural hazards: rare event logistic regression with replications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guns, M.; Vanacker, V.

2012-06-01

Statistical analysis of natural hazards needs particular attention, as most of these phenomena are rare events. This study shows that the ordinary rare event logistic regression, as it is now commonly used in geomorphologic studies, does not always lead to a robust detection of controlling factors, as the results can be strongly sample-dependent. In this paper, we introduce some concepts of Monte Carlo simulations in rare event logistic regression. This technique, so-called rare event logistic regression with replications, combines the strength of probabilistic and statistical methods, and allows overcoming some of the limitations of previous developments through robust variable selection. This technique was here developed for the analyses of landslide controlling factors, but the concept is widely applicable for statistical analyses of natural hazards.

Hazards of Extreme Weather: Flood Fatalities in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, H. O.; Jackson, T.; Bin-Shafique, S.

2009-12-01

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) considers flooding “America’s Number One Natural Hazard”. Despite flood management efforts in many communities, U.S. flood damages remain high, due, in large part, to increasing population and property development in flood-prone areas. Floods are the leading cause of fatalities related to natural disasters in Texas. Texas leads the nation in flash flood fatalities. There are three times more fatalities in Texas (840) than the following state Pennsylvania (265). This study examined flood fatalities that occurred in Texas between 1960 and 2008. Flood fatality statistics were extracted from three sources: flood fatality databases from the National Climatic Data Center, the Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States, and the Texas Department of State Health Services. The data collected for flood fatalities include the date, time, gender, age, location, and weather conditions. Inconsistencies among the three databases were identified and discussed. Analysis reveals that most fatalities result from driving into flood water (about 65%). Spatial analysis indicates that more fatalities occurred in counties containing major urban centers. Hydrologic analysis of a flood event that resulted in five fatalities was performed. A hydrologic model was able to simulate the water level at a location where a vehicle was swept away by flood water resulting in the death of the driver.

Special Issue "Impact of Natural Hazards on Urban Areas and Infrastructure" in the Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bostenaru Dan, M.

2009-04-01

This special issue includes selected papers on the topic of earthquake impact from the sessions held in 2004 in Nice, France and in 2005 in Vienna, Austria at the first and respectivelly the second European Geosciences Union General Assembly. Since its start in 1999, in the Hague, Netherlands, the hazard of earthquakes has been the most popular of the session. The respective calls in 2004 was for: Nature's forces including earthquakes, floods, landslides, high winds and volcanic eruptions can inflict losses to urban settlements and man-made structures such as infrastructure. In Europe, recent years have seen such significant losses from earthquakes in south and south-eastern Europe, floods in central Europe, and wind storms in western Europe. Meanwhile, significant progress has been made in understanding disasters. Several scientific fields contribute to a holistic approach in the evaluation of capacities, vulnerabilities and hazards, the main factors on mitigating urban disasters due to natural hazards. An important part of the session is devoted to assessment of earthquake shaking and loss scenarios, including both physical damage and human causalities. Early warning and rapid damage evaluation are of utmost importance for addressing the safety of many essential facilities, for emergency management of events and for disaster response. In case of earthquake occurrence strong motion networks, data processing and interpretation lead to preliminary estimation (scenarios) of geographical distribution of damages. Factual information on inflicted damage, like those obtained from shaking maps or aerial imagery permit a confrontation with simulation maps of damage in order to define a more accurate picture of the overall losses. Most recent developments towards quantitative and qualitative simulation of natural hazard impacts on urban areas, which provide decision-making support for urban disaster management, and success stories of and lessons learned from disaster

Plan To Reduce the Vulnerability of School Building to Natural Hazards in St. Kitts.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Organization of American States, Washington, DC.

This document outlines the existing conditions of school buildings and their vulnerability to natural hazards on the island of St. Kitts, and makes recommendations on how to better protect them from these hazards. Profiles of the schools are detailed and the roles and responsibilities of the various organizations concerning construction,…

Assessing natural hazards in NE Colombia using Sentinel-1 interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olen, Stephanie; Bookhagen, Bodo

2017-04-01

The DIGENTI project (Digitaler Entscheidertisch für das Naturgefahrenmanagement auf Basis von Satellitendaten und VGI (Volunteered Geographic Information)) aims to assess the natural hazard threat to the Cesar and La Guajira departments of northeast Colombia as guidance for decision makers and disaster relief workers. As members of the DIGENTI project, we use Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry to detect hillslope movements, delineate settlements, and monitor damage to urban areas. Our study area, located in the remote Serranía del Perijá mountain range on the border of Colombia and Venezuela, is mountainous, highly vegetated, and experiences high and spatially variable rainfall (between 1 and 4 m a-1). The remote nature of the region, coupled with the favorable conditions for mass movements and other hillslope instabilities, make it an ideal location to employ remote sensing techniques to monitor potential natural hazards. In the highly vegetated Serranía del Perijá mountain range, traditional damage proxy mapping is complicated by vegetation-related coherence loss between SAR scenes. Cross-referencing existing maps, we define regions of consistently high coherence as settled or urban areas. Using the spatial extent of settled or urban areas as a mask, we establish an algorithm to use coherence loss only in these regions as a damage proxy in urban areas where the local population will be most affected. Outside of settlements, hillslope instabilities and movements are quantified and mapped using a two-prong approach: (1) Horizontal ground displacement is be calculated by dense amplitude cross-correlation using the topsOffsetApp in the InSAR Scientific Computing Environment (ISCE). This allows the location, direction, and magnitude of mass movements and hillslope instabilities to be identified and mapped; (2) We use a timeseries of interferograms to quantify vertical ground deformation (e.g., as caused by landsliding) during the Sentinel-1

The approaches for the decision support in case natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyazilov, Evgeny; Chunyaev, Nikita

2013-04-01

In spite of using highly automated systems of measurement, collecting, storing, handling, prediction and delivery of information on the marine environment, including natural hazards, the amount of damage from natural phenomena increases. Because information on the marine environment delivered to the industrial facilities not effectively used. To such information pays little attention by individual decision-makers and not always perform preventive measures necessary for reduce and prevent damage. Automation of information support will improve the efficiency management of the marine activities. In Russia develops "The Unified system of the information about World ocean" (ESIMO, http://esimo.ru/), that integrates observation, analysis, prognostic and climate data. Necessary to create tools to automatic selection natural disasters through all integrated data; notification decision-makers about arising natural hazards - software agent; provision of information in a compact form for the decision-makers; assessment of possible damage and costs to the preventive measures; providing information on the impacts of environment on economic facilities and recommendations for decision-making; the use of maps, diagrams, tables for reporting. Tools for automatic selection designed for identification of natural phenomena based on the resources ESIMO and corresponding critical values of the indicators environment. The result of this module will be constantly updated database of critical situations of environment for each object or technological process. To operational notify and provide current information about natural hazards proposes using a software agent that is installed on the computer decision-makers, which is activated in case critical situations and provides a minimum of information. In the event of natural disaster software agent should be able to inform decision-makers about this, providing information on the current situation, and the possibility for more and detailed

Future Projection of Summer Extreme Precipitation from High Resolution Multi-RCMs over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Gayoung; Park, Changyong; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Min, Seung-Ki; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2017-04-01

Recently, the frequency and intensity of natural hazards have been increasing due to human-induced climate change. Because most damages of natural hazards over East Asia have been related to extreme precipitation events, it is important to estimate future change in extreme precipitation characteristics caused by climate change. We investigate future changes in extremal values of summer precipitation simulated by five regional climate models participating in the CORDEX-East Asia project (i.e., HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and GRIMs) over East Asia. 100-year return value calculated from the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters is analysed as an indicator of extreme intensity. In the future climate, the mean values as well as the extreme values of daily precipitation tend to increase over land region. The increase of 100-year return value can be significantly associated with the changes in the location (intensity) and scale (variability) GEV parameters for extreme precipitation. It is expected that the results of this study can be used as fruitful references when making the policy of disaster management. Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government and Development program under grant MPSS-NH-2013-63 and the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning of Korea (NRF-2016M3C4A7952637) for its support and assistant in completion of the study.

Systematic analysis of natural hazards along infrastructure networks using a GIS-tool for risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baruffini, Mirko

2010-05-01

Due to the topographical conditions in Switzerland, the highways and the railway lines are frequently exposed to natural hazards as rockfalls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and others. With the rising incidence of those natural hazards, protection measures become an important political issue. However, they are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. Furthermore risks are distributed in space and time. Consequently, important decision problems to the public sector decision makers are derived. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained consequently considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. With a Geographical Information System adapted to run with a tool developed to manage Risk analysis it is possible to survey the data in time and space, obtaining an important system for managing natural risks. As a framework, we adopt the Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999). It offers a complete framework for the analysis and assessment of risks due to natural hazards, ranging from hazard assessment for gravitational natural hazards, such as landslides, collapses, rockfalls, floodings, debris flows and avalanches, to vulnerability assessment and risk analysis, and the integration into land use planning at the cantonal and municipality level. The scheme is limited to the direct consequences of natural hazards. Thus, we develop a

Natural radioactivity and radiation hazards in some building materials used in Isparta, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavi, B.; Akkurt, I.

2010-09-01

The activity concentrations of uranium, thorium and potassium can vary from material to material and it should be measured as the radiation is hazardous for human health. Thus first studies have been planned to obtain radioactivity of building material used in the Isparta region of Turkey. The radioactivity of some building materials used in this region has been measured using a γ-ray spectrometry, which contains a NaI(Tl) detector connected to MCA. The specific activity for 226Ra, 232Th and 40K, from the selected building materials, were in the range 17.91-58.88, 6.77-19.49 and 65.72-248.76 Bq/kg, respectively. Absorbed dose rate in air ( D), annual effective dose (AED), radium equivalent activities (Ra eq), and external hazard index ( Hex) associated with the natural radionuclide are calculated to assess the radiation hazard of the natural radioactivity in the building materials. It was found that none of the results exceeds the recommended limit value.

Elevation uncertainty in coastal inundation hazard assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gesch, Dean B.; Cheval, Sorin

2012-01-01

Coastal inundation has been identified as an important natural hazard that affects densely populated and built-up areas (Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction, 2008). Inundation, or coastal flooding, can result from various physical processes, including storm surges, tsunamis, intense precipitation events, and extreme high tides. Such events cause quickly rising water levels. When rapidly rising water levels overwhelm flood defenses, especially in heavily populated areas, the potential of the hazard is realized and a natural disaster results. Two noteworthy recent examples of such natural disasters resulting from coastal inundation are the Hurricane Katrina storm surge in 2005 along the Gulf of Mexico coast in the United States, and the tsunami in northern Japan in 2011. Longer term, slowly varying processes such as land subsidence (Committee on Floodplain Mapping Technologies, 2007) and sea-level rise also can result in coastal inundation, although such conditions do not have the rapid water level rise associated with other flooding events. Geospatial data are a critical resource for conducting assessments of the potential impacts of coastal inundation, and geospatial representations of the topography in the form of elevation measurements are a primary source of information for identifying the natural and human components of the landscape that are at risk. Recently, the quantity and quality of elevation data available for the coastal zone have increased markedly, and this availability facilitates more detailed and comprehensive hazard impact assessments.

From paper to Facebook, travelling trough the natural hazards divulgation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Llasat, Maria-Carmen

2010-05-01

and other applications like the webquests mainly focused on scholar population. This contribution starts from the analysis of the newspaper articles on natural hazards and climate change published between 1982 and 2007 by a Spanish journal (Llasat et al, 2009b) and analyzes the breakpoint produced on last years as a consequence of the introduction of news and newspapers in internet (digital, on-line information, and so on) and certain changes in the headlines philosophy. The contribution also shows a benchmarking about the application of the new tools in internet in relation to natural hazards. The last objective is to establish new and innovative ways to transfer the natural hazards knowledge to practitioners, to overpasses the short term interest in natural disasters during the non-crisis period, and to improve the disaster risk reduction approach following the Hyogo recommendations.

40 CFR 355.15 - Which threshold planning quantity do I use for an extremely hazardous substance present at my...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 27 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Which threshold planning quantity do I use for an extremely hazardous substance present at my facility in solid form? 355.15 Section 355.15 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS EMERGENCY...

40 CFR 355.15 - Which threshold planning quantity do I use for an extremely hazardous substance present at my...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Which threshold planning quantity do I use for an extremely hazardous substance present at my facility in solid form? 355.15 Section 355.15 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS EMERGENCY...

40 CFR 355.15 - Which threshold planning quantity do I use for an extremely hazardous substance present at my...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Which threshold planning quantity do I use for an extremely hazardous substance present at my facility in solid form? 355.15 Section 355.15 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) SUPERFUND, EMERGENCY PLANNING, AND COMMUNITY RIGHT-TO-KNOW PROGRAMS EMERGENCY...

78 FR 45939 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-30

... Whiteland (12-03- Virginia Township team.com/lomrs.htm. 2075P). McMichael, Building, 209 Chairman, East... Tredyffrin (12-03- Michelle H. Municipal team.com/lomrs.htm. 2075P). Kichline, Building, 1100 Chairman... Scott K. York, Building and team.com/lomrs.htm. County (12-03- Chairman-at- Development 1164P). Large...

Review Article "Valuating the intangible effects of natural hazards - review and analysis of the costing methods"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markantonis, V.; Meyer, V.; Schwarze, R.

2012-05-01

The "intangible" or "non-market" effects are those costs of natural hazards which are not, or at least not easily measurable in monetary terms, as for example, impacts on health, cultural heritage or the environment. The intangible effects are often not included in costs assessments of natural hazards leading to an incomplete and biased cost assessment. However, several methods exist which try to estimate these effects in a non-monetary or monetary form. The objective of the present paper is to review and evaluate methods for estimating the intangible effects of natural hazards, specifically related to health and environmental effects. Existing methods are analyzed and compared using various criteria, research gaps are identified, application recommendations are provided, and valuation issues that should be addressed by the scientific community are highlighted.

Linking Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Climate and Food Security: an Initiative of International Scientific Community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Beer, T.

2013-05-01

Humans face climatic and hydro-meteorological hazards on different scales in time and space. In particular natural hazards can have disastrous impact in the short term (flood) and in the long term (drought) as they affect human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. They represent a pending danger for vulnerable lifelines, infrastructure and the agricultural systems that depend on the water supply, reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Extreme natural events such as extreme floods or prolonged drought can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. The beginning of the XX1st century has been marked by a significant number of natural disasters, such as floods, severe storms, wildfires, hurricanes, and tsunamis. Extreme natural events cause devastation resulting in loss of human life, large environmental damage, and partial or total loss of infrastructure that, in the longer time, will affect the potential for agricultural recovery. Recent catastrophic events of the early 21st century (e.g. floods in Pakistan and Thailand, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami) remind us once again that there is a strong coupling between complex solid Earth, oceanic, and atmospheric processes and that even developed countries such as Japan are subject to agricultural declines as a result of disastrous hydro-meteorological events. Scientific community recognizes that communication between the groups of experts of various international organizations dealing with natural hazards and their activity in disaster risk reduction and food security needs to be strengthened. Several international scientific unions and intergovernmental institutions set up a consortium of experts to promote studies of weather, climate and their interaction with agriculture, food and their socio

Bundle Data Approach at GES DISC Targeting Natural Hazards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shie, Chung-Lin; Shen, Suhung; Kempler, Steven J.

2015-01-01

Severe natural phenomena such as hurricane, volcano, blizzard, flood and drought have the potential to cause immeasurable property damages, great socioeconomic impact, and tragic loss of human life. From searching to assessing the Big, i.e., massive and heterogeneous scientific data (particularly, satellite and model products) in order to investigate those natural hazards, it has, however, become a daunting task for Earth scientists and applications researchers, especially during recent decades. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Service Center (GES DISC) has served Big Earth science data, and the pertinent valuable information and services to the aforementioned users of diverse communities for years. In order to help and guide our users to online readily (i.e., with a minimum effort) acquire their requested data from our enormous resource at GES DISC for studying their targeted hazard event, we have thus initiated a Bundle Data approach in 2014, first targeting the hurricane event topic. We have recently worked on new topics such as volcano and blizzard. The bundle data of a specific hazard event is basically a sophisticated integrated data package consisting of a series of proper datasets containing a group of relevant (knowledge--based) data variables readily accessible to users via a system-prearranged table linking those data variables to the proper datasets (URLs). This online approach has been developed by utilizing a few existing data services such as Mirador as search engine; Giovanni for visualization; and OPeNDAP for data access, etc. The online Data Cookbook site at GES DISC is the current host for the bundle data. We are now also planning on developing an Automated Virtual Collection Framework that shall eventually accommodate the bundle data, as well as further improve our management in Big Data.

"Bundle Data" Approach at GES DISC Targeting Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shie, C. L.; Shen, S.; Kempler, S. J.

2015-12-01

Severe natural phenomena such as hurricane, volcano, blizzard, flood and drought have the potential to cause immeasurable property damages, great socioeconomic impact, and tragic loss of human life. From searching to assessing the "Big", i.e., massive and heterogeneous scientific data (particularly, satellite and model products) in order to investigate those natural hazards, it has, however, become a daunting task for Earth scientists and applications researchers, especially during recent decades. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Service Center (GES DISC) has served "Big" Earth science data, and the pertinent valuable information and services to the aforementioned users of diverse communities for years. In order to help and guide our users to online readily (i.e., with a minimum effort) acquire their requested data from our enormous resource at GES DISC for studying their targeted hazard/event, we have thus initiated a "Bundle Data" approach in 2014, first targeting the hurricane event/topic. We have recently worked on new topics such as volcano and blizzard. The "bundle data" of a specific hazard/event is basically a sophisticated integrated data package consisting of a series of proper datasets containing a group of relevant ("knowledge-based") data variables readily accessible to users via a system-prearranged table linking those data variables to the proper datasets (URLs). This online approach has been developed by utilizing a few existing data services such as Mirador as search engine; Giovanni for visualization; and OPeNDAP for data access, etc. The online "Data Cookbook" site at GES DISC is the current host for the "bundle data". We are now also planning on developing an "Automated Virtual Collection Framework" that shall eventually accommodate the "bundle data", as well as further improve our management in "Big Data".

Multiple Natural Hazards Assessment and Comparison to Planned Land Use in an Andean Touristic Site within the Riskscape Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Andreas; Jaque Castillo, Edilia

2017-04-01

The Andes of central Chile are a natural environment characterized by multiple natural hazards (mass movements, volcanic hazards, seismic hazards, snow avalanches to name a few). The totality of these hazards, according to the notion of Müller-Mahn et al. an in relation to vulnerable entities, spans a riskscape. Spatial planning should take this riskscape into account in order to ensure a save an resilient regional development. However, as frequently observed in developing or newly developed countries, such precaution measures are only hardly realized. Spatial planing tends to be reactive to private inversion, opportunistic and frequently clientelistic. This results in spatial structures whose future development is vulnerable to natural disasters. The contribution analyses these circumstances within a riskscape in central Chile. Within the VIII. Region, close to the volcanic complex Nevados de Chillan, a touristic development around a Hotel for winter sports is established. However, the place is affected by a multitude of natural hazards. The contribution, on the basis of primary and secondary data, first provides hazard maps for several natural hazards. Secondly, the individual hazard maps are merged to an overall hazard map. This overall hazard map is related to the vulnerable entities to span a riskscape. The vulnerable entities are settlements, but also tourist infrastructures. Then, the contribution compares how a precautions spatial planning could have avoided putting vulnerable entities at risk, which spatial structure - especially regarding tourism - is actually found and which challenges for spatial development do exist. It reveals that the most important tourist infrastructures are found particularly at places, characterized by a high overall hazard. Furthermore, it will show that alternatives at economically equally attractive sites, but with a much smaller overall hazard, would have existed. It concludes by discussing possible reasons for this by

Natural Hazard Preparedness in an Auckland Community: Child and Community Perceptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bolton, Patricia; Dirks, Kim; Neuwelt, Pat

2014-01-01

Community engagement in natural hazard preparedness is crucial to ensure sustainable initiatives. Children are important members of communities, and can actively contribute to community preparedness. This article presents research undertaken with 11- to 12-year-old students from a school in Auckland, New Zealand, and leaders associated with the…

Wicked Problems in Natural Hazard Assessment and Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, S.; Steckler, M. S.; Rundle, J. B.; Dixon, T. H.

2017-12-01

Social scientists have defined "wicked" problems that are "messy, ill-defined, more complex than we fully grasp, and open to multiple interpretations based on one's point of view... No solution to a wicked problem is permanent or wholly satisfying, which leaves every solution open to easy polemical attack." These contrast with "tame" problems in which necessary information is available and solutions - even if difficult and expensive - are straightforward to identify and execute. Updating the U.S.'s aging infrastructure is a tame problem, because what is wrong and how to fix it are clear. In contrast, addressing climate change is a wicked problem because its effects are uncertain and the best strategies to address them are unclear. An analogous approach can be taken to natural hazard problems. In tame problems, we have a good model of the process, good information about past events, and data implying that the model should predict future events. In such cases, we can make a reasonable assessment of the hazard that can be used to develop mitigation strategies. Earthquake hazard mitigation for San Francisco is a relatively tame problem. We understand how the earthquakes result from known plate motions, have information about past earthquakes, and have geodetic data implying that future similar earthquakes will occur. As a result, it is straightforward to develop and implement mitigation strategies. However, in many cases, hazard assessment and mitigation is a wicked problem. How should we prepare for a great earthquake on plate boundaries where tectonics favor such events but we have no evidence that they have occurred and hence how large they may be or how often to expect them? How should we assess the hazard within plates, for example in the New Madrid seismic zone, where large earthquakes have occurred but we do not understand their causes and geodetic data show no strain accumulating? How can we assess the hazard and make sensible policy when the recurrence of

Geoethics and natural hazards: general reflections on the relationship between geoscientists and society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peppoloni, Silvia

2013-04-01

The development of modern science has changed the relationship between humans and natural phenomena. The great geoscientists of the past have contributed to the construction of the modern world, by revolutionizing the way in which humans perceive themselves, by changing their references of space and time inside the Universe. However, in the majority of the populations is observed the persistence of a fatalistic mentality or an attitude which believes that science can solve everything. In fact, throughout the centuries the fear of earthquakes, eruptions, floods has not changed in humans. The scientific rational approach is certainly an effective way to limit the scope of irrationality and uncertainty. The fear is not eliminable, but the proper dissemination of scientific knowledge and an adequate preparedness can help to mitigate it and transform it into an attitude of respect for the natural processes that govern the Geosphere. Therefore, geoscientists have a great responsibility towards society, which needs to face natural hazards. They have the duty to transfer knowledge and methods, to communicate information and errors, to awaken in people the interest for the phenomena and their evolution. Ultimately, geoscientists can contribute to bring science closer to society. The lack of involvement in scientific knowledge of the various components of society (citizens, politicians, mass media) can lead to two negative consequences: • the cultural and social marginalization of scientists, together with a loss of the sense of the role they can play in protecting society from natural hazards; • the tendency of people to embrace preconceived ideas in non critical way, ideas provided by a media information often incorrect, to lose good sense, until to develop fideistic attitudes based on few observed elements. In the scientific field the probabilistic method is a widespread way to analyze the natural phenomena. It allows to give an estimate of time, place and size of an

[Comment on “Meeting the challenges of natural hazards in the wake of the tsunami disaster” by Soroosh Sorooshian] More on the challenges of natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierson, Thomaas C.

In the 11 January 2005 issue of Eos, Soroosh Sorooshian offered cogent suggestions about how we, as professional scientists, might do more to make the world safer from natural hazards. Not explicitly mentioned was an additional important contribution we can make that requires no additional research. It is simply to more effectively apply what is already known by increasing public awareness of both the hazards themselves and the simple, life-saving responses to hazards that people can take without outside warning, direction, or assistance from public officials.For example, school children in many seismic areas are taught to duck immediately under desks or tables during earthquakes (“drop, cover, and hold on”). Similarly, people living in coastal areas along subduction zones can be taught that earthquakes may cause tsunamis and to respond to a felt earthquake by moving as quickly as possible to high ground or to inland areas and remaining there for a few hours.

Scenario based tsunami wave height estimation towards hazard evaluation for the Hellenic coastline and examples of extreme inundation zones in South Aegean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melis, Nikolaos S.; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Frentzos, Elias; Krassanakis, Vassilios

2016-04-01

A scenario based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment is used, by incorporating earthquake sources with the potential to produce extreme tsunamis (measured through their capacity to cause maximum wave height and inundation extent). In the present study we follow a two phase approach. In the first phase, existing earthquake hazard zoning in the greater Aegean region is used to derive representative maximum expected earthquake magnitude events, with realistic seismotectonic source characteristics, and of greatest tsunamigenic potential within each zone. By stacking the scenario produced maximum wave heights a global maximum map is constructed for the entire Hellenic coastline, corresponding to all expected extreme offshore earthquake sources. Further evaluation of the produced coastline categories based on the maximum expected wave heights emphasizes the tsunami hazard in selected coastal zones with important functions (i.e. touristic crowded zones, industrial zones, airports, power plants etc). Owing to its proximity to the Hellenic Arc, many urban centres and being a popular tourist destination, Crete Island and the South Aegean region are given a top priority to define extreme inundation zoning. In the second phase, a set of four large coastal cities (Kalamata, Chania, Heraklion and Rethymno), important for tsunami hazard, due i.e. to the crowded beaches during the summer season or industrial facilities, are explored towards preparedness and resilience for tsunami hazard in Greece. To simulate tsunamis in the Aegean region (generation, propagation and runup) the MOST - ComMIT NOAA code was used. High resolution DEMs for bathymetry and topography were joined via an interface, specifically developed for the inundation maps in this study and with similar products in mind. For the examples explored in the present study, we used 5m resolution for the topography and 30m resolution for the bathymetry, respectively. Although this study can be considered as

Insuring Resilience - Employing Approaches from the Re/insurance Sector to Encourage Sustainable Design & Operations against Natural Hazards.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglas, R.

2014-12-01

Over the last quarter of a century the re/insuance sector and its financial regulators have developed a suite of metrics that have guided made a significant contribution to the industry's resilience to natural disasters. In particular the introduction of annual stress tests to evaluate risks to portfolios at 1:200, 1:20 and annual average loss metrics has provided a prism through which to focus science, engineeering and analytical actcities and the supporting data environment. This approach has driven a deeper understanding of the relationship between hazard, exposure and vulnerability of the build enviornment and helped put a quantitative value on physical and operational resilience. In particular has been the recognition that while structures and operations may be distrupted and disabled during a natural disaster or extreme event the critical issue is how quickly and cheaply functions can be reinstated after the event has passed. This has highlighted the value of enabling structures and institutional processes to close down, or even 'break' in a pre-planned way when forces are exceeded to prevent excessive dislocation and allow capabilities to reinstated in an planned and effective manner. New advances in financial regulation are making this increasingly attractive

Natural hazards in Slovene karst areas: Flood risk areas in the Upper Pivka valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravbar, N.; Kovacic, G.

2009-04-01

An overview of exceptional natural processes or natural hazards from the human perspective in Slovene karst areas is made. Some types of natural hazards are typical for karst due to the process of karstification and resulting geomorphological and hydrological characteristics of karst landscapes (presence of voids within the rock, absence of superficial flow and presence of specific karst groundwater flow system), while the others occur evenly in all types of landscapes. However, their impact is different in karst as it is in the non-karst landscapes. Examples of particular phenomenon or events, their frequency of occurrence, expansion and caused damage are presented. Special emphasis is laid on high waters in karst poljes, shallow karst areas or contact karst, where flooding emerges due to the raise of karst groundwater table as a consequence of intensive precipitation or snowmelt. Flooding in karst can also appear due to insufficient swallow capacities of the underground channels, which are not capable of conducting surpluses of inflowing water. In opposite to flash floods, the karst floods are more predictable, since they usually occur in the same areas to the same elevation and in the same season of the year. Inhabitants are easily adapted to this phenomenon, setting the settlements and other important infrastructure on elevations above the highest recorded water level. Usually such flooding does not pose serious threat and causes no serious flood damage, except during extreme events, as it was in the case of the autumn 2000 floods. Case study of the Upper Pivka valley, where floods usually cover around 6.6 km2, is treated and explained. During the intensive rain period from September to November 2000, the groundwater table rose for about 20-35 m above the usual level, causing flooding also in the areas, where they have never been recorded before. Precise mapping of the flooded area extents in the discussed area and the height of the water levels was performed

Modelling the spatial distribution of five natural hazards in the context of the WHO/EMRO Atlas of Disaster Risk as a step towards the reduction of the health impact related to disasters

PubMed Central

El Morjani, Zine El Abidine; Ebener, Steeve; Boos, John; Abdel Ghaffar, Eman; Musani, Altaf

2007-01-01

Background Reducing the potential for large scale loss of life, large numbers of casualties, and widespread displacement of populations that can result from natural disasters is a difficult challenge for the individuals, communities and governments that need to respond to such events. While it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to predict the occurrence of most natural hazards; it is possible to take action before emergency events happen to plan for their occurrence when possible and to mitigate their potential effects. In this context, an Atlas of Disaster Risk is under development for the 21 Member States that constitute the World Health Organization's (WHO) Eastern Mediterranean (EM) Region and the West Bank and Gaza Strip territory. Methods and Results This paper describes the Geographic Information System (GIS) based methods that have been used in order to create the first volume of the Atlas which looks at the spatial distribution of 5 natural hazards (flood, landslide, wind speed, heat and seismic hazard). It also presents the results obtained through the application of these methods on a set of countries part of the EM Region before illustrating how this type of information can be aggregated for decision making. Discussion and Conclusion The methods presented in this paper aim at providing a new set of tools for GIS practitioners to refine their analytical capabilities when examining natural hazards, and at the same time allowing users to create more specific and meaningful local analyses. The maps resulting from the application of these methods provides decision makers with information to strengthen their disaster management capacity. It also represents the basis for the reflection that needs to take place regarding populations' vulnerability towards natural hazards from a health perspective. PMID:17343733

Prediction of extreme floods in the eastern Central Andes based on a complex networks approach.

PubMed

Boers, N; Bookhagen, B; Barbosa, H M J; Marwan, N; Kurths, J; Marengo, J A

2014-10-14

Changing climatic conditions have led to a significant increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events in the Central Andes of South America. These events are spatially extensive and often result in substantial natural hazards for population, economy and ecology. Here we develop a general framework to predict extreme events by introducing the concept of network divergence on directed networks derived from a non-linear synchronization measure. We apply our method to real-time satellite-derived rainfall data and predict more than 60% (90% during El Niño conditions) of rainfall events above the 99th percentile in the Central Andes. In addition to the societal benefits of predicting natural hazards, our study reveals a linkage between polar and tropical regimes as the responsible mechanism: the interplay of northward migrating frontal systems and a low-level wind channel from the western Amazon to the subtropics.

Natural hazards and risk reduction in Hawai'i: Chapter 10 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kauahikaua, James P.; Tilling, Robert I.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

2014-01-01

Although HVO has been an important global player in advancing natural hazards studies during the past 100 years, it faces major challenges in the future, among which the following command special attention: (1) the preparation of an updated volcano hazards assessment and map for the Island of Hawai‘i, taking into account not only high-probability lava flow hazards, but also hazards posed by low-probability, high-risk events (for instance, pyroclastic flows, regional ashfalls, volcano flank collapse and associated megatsunamis), and (2) the continuation of timely and effective communications of hazards information to all stakeholders and the general public, using all available means (conventional print media, enhanced Web presence, public-education/outreach programs, and social-media approaches).

UAV-based Natural Hazard Management in High-Alpine Terrain - Case Studies from Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sotier, Bernadette; Adams, Marc; Lechner, Veronika

2015-04-01

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) have become a standard tool for geodata collection, as they allow conducting on-demand mapping missions in a flexible, cost-effective manner at an unprecedented level of detail. Easy-to-use, high-performance image matching software make it possible to process the collected aerial images to orthophotos and 3D-terrain models. Such up-to-date geodata have proven to be an important asset in natural hazard management: Processes like debris flows, avalanches, landslides, fluvial erosion and rock-fall can be detected and quantified; damages can be documented and evaluated. In the Alps, these processes mostly originate in remote areas, which are difficult and hazardous to access, thus presenting a challenging task for RPAS data collection. In particular, the problems include finding suitable landing and piloting-places, dealing with bad or no GPS-signals and the installation of ground control points (GCP) for georeferencing. At the BFW, RPAS have been used since 2012 to aid natural hazard management of various processes, of which three case studies are presented below. The first case study deals with the results from an attempt to employ UAV-based multi-spectral remote sensing to monitor the state of natural hazard protection forests. Images in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) band were collected using modified low-cost cameras, combined with different optical filters. Several UAV-flights were performed in the 72 ha large study site in 2014, which lies in the Wattental, Tyrol (Austria) between 1700 and 2050 m a.s.l., where the main tree species are stone pine and mountain pine. The matched aerial images were analysed using different UAV-specific vitality indices, evaluating both single- and dual-camera UAV-missions. To calculate the mass balance of a debris flow in the Tyrolean Halltal (Austria), an RPAS flight was conducted in autumn 2012. The extreme alpine environment was challenging for both the mission and the evaluation of the aerial

The risk perception paradox--implications for governance and communication of natural hazards.

PubMed

Wachinger, Gisela; Renn, Ortwin; Begg, Chloe; Kuhlicke, Christian

2013-06-01

This article reviews the main insights from selected literature on risk perception, particularly in connection with natural hazards. It includes numerous case studies on perception and social behavior dealing with floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, wild fires, and landslides. The review reveals that personal experience of a natural hazard and trust--or lack of trust--in authorities and experts have the most substantial impact on risk perception. Cultural and individual factors such as media coverage, age, gender, education, income, social status, and others do not play such an important role but act as mediators or amplifiers of the main causal connections between experience, trust, perception, and preparedness to take protective actions. When analyzing the factors of experience and trust on risk perception and on the likeliness of individuals to take preparedness action, the review found that a risk perception paradox exists in that it is assumed that high risk perception will lead to personal preparedness and, in the next step, to risk mitigation behavior. However, this is not necessarily true. In fact, the opposite can occur if individuals with high risk perception still choose not to personally prepare themselves in the face of a natural hazard. Therefore, based on the results of the review, this article offers three explanations suggesting why this paradox might occur. These findings have implications for future risk governance and communication as well as for the willingness of individuals to invest in risk preparedness or risk mitigation actions. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Preparing our Workforce: Discussing Traditional and Non-Traditional Geoscience Careers - Natural hazard risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castaldi, A.

2013-12-01

Many young people interested in science think that their only professional opportunities lie within academia or in some government sponsored project. The private sector is often dismissed as not providing the opportunities to a natural scientist or at least an opportunity where they can make a difference. The threat of natural disasters and in the rise of economic losses caused by these disasters as well as the potential problems brought about by climate change have opened up a number of opportunities for the natural scientist. The insurance industry and reinsurance industry is one industry looking for natural scientists and structural engineers. The insurance industry's largest singular threat comes from the risks caused by geological or atmospheric hazards. Over the last decade more and more scientists have used their seismological, hydrological, or weather related knowledge to develop new tools and technology to identify and estimate the economic and social impact due to these natural events. The insurance and reinsurance industry were one of the first industries to call attention to the risk posed by climate change. Our goal is to reduce losses and the cost to insure these losses. Our work starts with the hazard. Hazard identification is one of the best methods for reducing loss nevertheless not all areas of the world have the ability to identify these hazards. Swiss Re transforms science into application. As an example most of the world does not have flood maps to help consumers and policymakers decide which locations are highly exposed and which are not. Swiss Re used a decade of learning to develop a global set of flood maps that identifies the 100 year and 500 year flood zones. To an emerging market these maps will add them in their zoning and building considerations. Academia is a noble profession and the work completed within the university walls is the basis for what we do. Nevertheless the private sector has the ability to use this knowledge and apply

76 FR 21299 - Emergency Planning and Notification; Emergency Planning and List of Extremely Hazardous...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-15

...EPA is proposing to revise the manner by which the regulated community would apply the threshold planning quantities (TPQs) for those extremely hazardous substances (EHSs) that are non-reactive solid chemicals in solution form. Specifically, facilities with a solid EHS in solution would be subject to the Emergency Planning requirements if the amount of the solid chemical on-site, when multiplied by 0.2, equaled or exceeded the lower published TPQ, based on data that shows less potential for the solid chemical in solution to remain airborne in the event of an accidental release. Previously, EPA assumed that 100% of the chemical could become airborne in the event of an accidental release.

Natural radiation and its hazard in copper ore mines in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chau, Nguyen; Jodłowski, Paweł; Kalita, Stefan; Olko, Paweł; Chruściel, Edward; Maksymowicz, Adam; Waligórski, Michał; Bilski, Paweł; Budzanowski, Maciej

2008-06-01

The doses of gamma radiation, concentrations of radium isotopes in water and sediments, radon concentration and concentration of alpha potential energy of radon decay products in the copper ore mine and in the mining region in the vicinity of Lubin town in Poland are presented. These data served as a basis for the assessment of radiological hazard to the mine workers and general public. The results of this assessment indicate that radiological hazard in the region does not differ substantially from typical values associated with natural radiation background. The calculated average annual effective dose for copper miners is 1.48 mSv. In general, copper ore mines can be regarded as radiologically safe workplaces.

Natural Hazards in Earth Science education projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrero, Elena; Magagna, Alessandra

2013-04-01

In the last decades, the awareness of the role of geoscientists in the society increased, while a deeper awareness of the importance of an ethical behavior developed in the geoscientists professional work, in the communication with the public, in the students and teachers training. Recently, the scientific contributions on geoethics have increased, as well as the organization of special scientific sessions in important international congresses, consolidated by the publication of significant synthesis, proceedings of conferences, special issues of prestigious journals of Geosciences. Starting from these assumptions, considering that geoethic involves widespread interests of different cultural fields, it is proposed a review of training activities related to Natural Hazards developed at the University of Turin, in collaboration with other institutions and authorities of Piemonte region (Italy). Different activities will be exposed, based on the same goals and methods, shared within an interdisciplinary research group. A few examples of these activities will be mentioned belonging to institutional training (courses and university laboratories, thesis and doctoral dissertations, graduate schools for teachers training, masters and seminars), but also collaboration with Natural History Museums and Natural Parks of the Piemonte region, as well as occasional workshops proposed in conferences, seminars developed with Teachers Associations, single didactic proposals offered in schools. These activities include, as an example, events of tsunami in the Pacific Ocean, floods and slopes instability events, abandoned waste and interference with soil and groundwater, risk of degradation of fossil localities etc. These proposals were structured in order to carry out didactic research on students' misconceptions, on the conceptual difficulties of certain topics, on the skills of abstraction required: some relevant concepts are extremely difficult to conceive, as it happens

Three-dimensional displays for natural hazards analysis, using classified Landsat Thematic Mapper digital data and large-scale digital elevation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, David R.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Brown, Daniel G.

1991-01-01

Methods are described for using Landsat Thematic Mapper digital data and digital elevation models for the display of natural hazard sites in a mountainous region of northwestern Montana, USA. Hazard zones can be easily identified on the three-dimensional images. Proximity of facilities such as highways and building locations to hazard sites can also be easily displayed. A temporal sequence of Landsat TM (or similar) satellite data sets could also be used to display landscape changes associated with dynamic natural hazard processes.

Volcanic hazard assessment for the Canary Islands (Spain) using extreme value theory, and the recent volcanic eruption of El Hierro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobradelo, R.; Martí, J.; Mendoza-Rosas, A. T.; Gómez, G.

2012-04-01

The Canary Islands are an active volcanic region densely populated and visited by several millions of tourists every year. Nearly twenty eruptions have been reported through written chronicles in the last 600 years, suggesting that the probability of a new eruption in the near future is far from zero. This shows the importance of assessing and monitoring the volcanic hazard of the region in order to reduce and manage its potential volcanic risk, and ultimately contribute to the design of appropriate preparedness plans. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of the volcanic eruption time series for the Canary Islands is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk in the area. Such a series describes complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. Here we propose a statistical method for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions which is most appropriate given the nature of the documented historical eruptive data. We first characterise the eruptions by their magnitudes, and then carry out a preliminary analysis of the data to establish the requirements for the statistical method. Past studies in eruptive time series used conventional statistics and treated the series as an homogeneous process. In this paper, we will use a method that accounts for the time-dependence of the series and includes rare or extreme events, in the form of few data of large eruptions, since these data require special methods of analysis. Hence, we will use a statistical method from extreme value theory. In particular, we will apply a non-homogeneous Poisson process to the historical eruptive data of the Canary Islands to estimate the probability of having at least one volcanic event of a magnitude greater than one in the upcoming years. Shortly after the publication of this method an eruption in the island of El Hierro took place for the first time in historical times, supporting our method and contributing towards the validation of

Forest tree responses to extreme drought and some biotic events: Towards a selection according to hazard tolerance?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bréda, Nathalie; Badeau, Vincent

2008-09-01

The aim of this paper is to illustrate how some extreme events could affect forest ecosystems. Forest tree response can be analysed using dendroecological methods, as tree-ring widths are strongly controlled by climatic or biotic events. Years with such events induce similar tree responses and are called pointer years. They can result from extreme climatic events like frost, a heat wave, spring water logging, drought or insect damage… Forest tree species showed contrasting responses to climatic hazards, depending on their sensitivity to water shortage or temperature hardening, as illustrated from our dendrochronological database. For foresters, a drought or a pest disease is an extreme event if visible and durable symptoms are induced (leaf discolouration, leaf loss, perennial organs mortality, tree dieback and mortality). These symptoms here are shown, lagging one or several years behind a climatic or biotic event, from forest decline cases in progress since the 2003 drought or attributed to previous severe droughts or defoliations in France. Tree growth or vitality recovery is illustrated, and the functional interpretation of the long lasting memory of trees is discussed. A coupled approach linking dendrochronology and ecophysiology helps in discussing vulnerability of forest stands, and suggests management advices in order to mitigate extreme drought and cope with selective mortality.

Self-organization, the cascade model, and natural hazards.

PubMed

Turcotte, Donald L; Malamud, Bruce D; Guzzetti, Fausto; Reichenbach, Paola

2002-02-19

We consider the frequency-size statistics of two natural hazards, forest fires and landslides. Both appear to satisfy power-law (fractal) distributions to a good approximation under a wide variety of conditions. Two simple cellular-automata models have been proposed as analogs for this observed behavior, the forest fire model for forest fires and the sand pile model for landslides. The behavior of these models can be understood in terms of a self-similar inverse cascade. For the forest fire model the cascade consists of the coalescence of clusters of trees; for the sand pile model the cascade consists of the coalescence of metastable regions.

Self-organization, the cascade model, and natural hazards

PubMed Central

Turcotte, Donald L.; Malamud, Bruce D.; Guzzetti, Fausto; Reichenbach, Paola

2002-01-01

We consider the frequency-size statistics of two natural hazards, forest fires and landslides. Both appear to satisfy power-law (fractal) distributions to a good approximation under a wide variety of conditions. Two simple cellular-automata models have been proposed as analogs for this observed behavior, the forest fire model for forest fires and the sand pile model for landslides. The behavior of these models can be understood in terms of a self-similar inverse cascade. For the forest fire model the cascade consists of the coalescence of clusters of trees; for the sand pile model the cascade consists of the coalescence of metastable regions. PMID:11875206

Hazard Categorization Reduction via Nature of the Process Argument

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chelise A. Van De Graaff; Dr. Chad Pope; J. Todd Taylor

2012-05-01

This paper documents the Hazard Categorization (HC) and Critical Safety Evaluation (CSE) for activities performed using an Inspection Object (IO) in excess of the single parameter subcritical limit of 700 g of U-235. By virtue of exceeding the single parameter subcritical limit and the subsequent potential for criticality, the IO HC is initially categorized as HC2. However, a novel application of the nature of the process argument was employed to reduce the IO HC from HC2 to less than HC3 (LTHC3). The IO is composed of five separate uranium metal plates that total no greater than 3.82 kg of U-235more » (U(20)). The IO is planned to be arranged in various configurations. As the IO serves as a standard for experimentation aimed at establishing techniques for detection of fissionable materials, it may be placed in close proximity to various reflectors, moderators, or both. The most reactive configurations of the IO were systematically evaluated and shown that despite the mass of U-235 and potential positioning near various reflectors and moderators, the IO cannot be assembled into a critical configuration. Therefore, the potential for criticality does not exist. With Department of Energy approval, a Hazards Assessment Document with high-level (facility-level) controls on the plates negates the potential for criticality and satisfies the nature of the process argument to reduce the HC from HC2 to LTHC3.« less

HORA - an Austrian platform for natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hlatky, T.

2009-04-01

HORA - an Austrian platform for natural hazards as a new way in risk communication One initiatives launched in Austria demonstrate that public participation not only bears the risk of a partial transfer of responsibility by the authorities; it may above all prepare the ground for entirely new approaches and create new links. The recent installation of the first internet risk zoning system in Austria underscores the importance of involving private parties in natural disaster protection. This public-private partnership (PPP) between the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (BMLFUW) and the Austrian Insurance Association (VVO) was launched in the wake of the 2002 flood disaster. The first project phase, the Austrian flood risk zoning system called HORA (screenshot see fig. 1), has now been accessible on the Web since 1st June 2006. In accordance with a risk partnership concluded between federal government, insurance companies and private parties, the project initiators seek to offer the public a preliminary risk assessment tool for evaluation of their home, industrial enterprise, of infrastructure. Digital risk maps shall provide information on 30-year, 100-year and 200-year flood events as they occur alongside the 26.000-km-long domestic river network. The probability with which a certain block of land is immersed in water during a flood event can be calculated by means of hydraulic engineering methods. These have traditionally relied on statistical figures, which are known to be very inaccurate, especially when major events such as flooding are concerned. The Vienna University of Technology (TU) (Institute of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering) has dedicated many years to developing more accurate, process oriented risk assessment techniques. The starting points was to identify different flood-triggering processes and to divide them into specific categories as long-duration rainfalls, short-duration rainfalls, storms

Coastal pollution hazards in southern California observed by SAR imagery: stormwater plumes, wastewater plumes, and natural hydrocarbon seeps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Digiacomo, Paul M.; Washburn, Libe; Holt, Benjamin; Jones, Burton H.

2004-01-01

Stormwater runoff plumes, municipal wastewater plumes, and natural hydrocarbon seeps are important pollution hazards for the heavily populated Southern California Bight (SCB). Due to their small size, dynamic and episodic nature, these hazards are difficult to sample adequately using traditional in situ oceanographic methods. Complex coastal circulation and persistent cloud cover can further complicate detection and monitoring of these hazards. We use imagery from space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR), complemented by field measurements, to examine these hazards in the SCB. The hazards are detectable in SAR imagery because they deposit surfactants on the sea surface, smoothing capillary and small gravity waves to produce areas of reduced backscatter compared with the surrounding ocean. We suggest that high-resolution SAR, which obtains useful data regardless of darkness or cloud cover, could be an important observational tool for assessment and monitoring of coastal marine pollution hazards in the SCB and other urbanized coastal regions.

Assessment of landslide hazards induced by extreme rainfall event in Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, northwest India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Amit; Asthana, AKL; Priyanka, Rao Singh; Jayangondaperumal, R.; Gupta, Anil K.; Bhakuni, SS

2017-05-01

In the Indian Himalayan region (IHR), landslide-driven hazards have intensified over the past several decades primarily caused by the occurrence of heavy and extreme rainfall. However, little attention has been given to determining the cause of events triggered during pre- and post-Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) seasons. In the present research, detailed geological, meteorological, and remote sensing investigations have been carried out on an extreme rainfall landslide event that occurred in Sadal village, Udhampur district, Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, during September 2014. Toward the receding phase of the ISM (i.e., in the month of September 2014), an unusual rainfall event of 488.2 mm rainfall in 24 h took place in Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya in contrast to the normal rainfall occurrence. Geological investigations suggest that a planar weakness in the affected region is caused by bedding planes that consist of an alternate sequence of hard, compact sandstone and weak claystone. During this extreme rainfall event, the Sadal village was completely buried under the rock slides, as failure occurred along the planar weakness that dips toward the valley slope. Rainfall data analysis from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) for the preceding years homogeneous time series (July-September) indicates that the years 2005, 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2014 (i.e., closely spaced and clustering heavy rainfall events) received heavy rainfalls during the withdrawal of the ISM; whereas the heaviest rainfall was received in the years 2003 and 2013 at the onset of the ISM in the study region. This suggests that no characteristic cyclicity exists for extreme rainfall events. However, we observe that either toward the onset of the ISM or its retreat, the extreme rainfall facilitates landslides, rockfall, and slope failures in northwestern Himalaya. The spatiotemporal distribution of landslides caused by extreme rainfall events suggests its confinement toward the windward side of the

A multivariate copula-based framework for dealing with hazard scenarios and failure probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvadori, G.; Durante, F.; De Michele, C.; Bernardi, M.; Petrella, L.

2016-05-01

This paper is of methodological nature, and deals with the foundations of Risk Assessment. Several international guidelines have recently recommended to select appropriate/relevant Hazard Scenarios in order to tame the consequences of (extreme) natural phenomena. In particular, the scenarios should be multivariate, i.e., they should take into account the fact that several variables, generally not independent, may be of interest. In this work, it is shown how a Hazard Scenario can be identified in terms of (i) a specific geometry and (ii) a suitable probability level. Several scenarios, as well as a Structural approach, are presented, and due comparisons are carried out. In addition, it is shown how the Hazard Scenario approach illustrated here is well suited to cope with the notion of Failure Probability, a tool traditionally used for design and risk assessment in engineering practice. All the results outlined throughout the work are based on the Copula Theory, which turns out to be a fundamental theoretical apparatus for doing multivariate risk assessment: formulas for the calculation of the probability of Hazard Scenarios in the general multidimensional case (d≥2) are derived, and worthy analytical relationships among the probabilities of occurrence of Hazard Scenarios are presented. In addition, the Extreme Value and Archimedean special cases are dealt with, relationships between dependence ordering and scenario levels are studied, and a counter-example concerning Tail Dependence is shown. Suitable indications for the practical application of the techniques outlined in the work are given, and two case studies illustrate the procedures discussed in the paper.

The cost of karst subsidence and sinkhole collapse in the United States compared with other natural hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weary, David J.

2015-01-01

Rocks with potential for karst formation are found in all 50 states. Damage due to karst subsidence and sinkhole collapse is a natural hazard of national scope. Repair of damage to buildings, highways, and other infrastructure represents a significant national cost. Sparse and incomplete data show that the average cost of karst-related damages in the United States over the last 15 years is estimated to be at least $300,000,000 per year and the actual total is probably much higher. This estimate is lower than the estimated annual costs for other natural hazards; flooding, hurricanes and cyclonic storms, tornadoes, landslides, earthquakes, or wildfires, all of which average over $1 billion per year. Very few state organizations track karst subsidence and sinkhole damage mitigation costs; none occurs at the Federal level. Many states discuss the karst hazard in their State hazard mitigation plans, but seldom include detailed reports of subsidence incidents or their mitigation costs. Most State highway departments do not differentiate karst subsidence or sinkhole collapse from other road repair costs. Amassing of these data would raise the estimated annual cost considerably. Information from insurance organizations about sinkhole damage claims and payouts is also not readily available. Currently there is no agency with a mandate for developing such data. If a more realistic estimate could be made, it would illuminate the national scope of this hazard and make comparison with costs of other natural hazards more realistic.

The value of knowing better - Losses from natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mysiak, J.; Galarraga, I.,; Garrido, A.; Interwies, E.; van Bers, C.; Vandenberghe, V.; Farinosi, F.; Foudi, S.; Görlitz, S.; Hernández-Mora, N.; Gil, M.; Grambow, C.

2012-04-01

In a highly emotional speech delivered last year after a series of strikes, Julia Gilbert, the Australian PM, noted that Australia has watched in horror as day after day a new chapter in natural disaster history has been written. And so did the whole world. 2011 went on to become the costliest year in terms of natural hazard losses in the recent history, with the total costs topping 380 billion US dollars. Almost a half of the insured losses were caused by a single event - the Fukushima Dai'ichi nuclear power plant accident triggered by a tsunami that followed an earthquake of MW 6.6 (Richer 9.0) magnitude. The Fukushima disaster has taught a costly lesson, once again: What you least expect, happens. The estimates of losses inflicted by natural hazards are, to put it mildly, incomplete and hardly representative of the ripple effects on regional and global economy, and the wider effects on social fabric, wellbeing and ecosystems that are notoriously difficult to monetise. The knowledge of the full magnitude of losses is not an end in itself. The economics of disasters is an emerging academic field, struggling to uncover the patterns of vulnerability to natural hazards, and provide insights useful for designing effective disaster risk reduction measures and policies. Yet the costly lessons learned are often neglected. In this paper we analyse selected significantly damaging events caused by hydrometeorological and climatologic events (floods and droughts) in four river basins/countries: Ebro/Spain, Po/Italy, Weser/Germany and Scheldt/Flanders-Belgium. Our analysis is focussed on identifying the gaps in reported damage estimates, and conducting additional original research and assessment that contribute to filling those gaps. In the case of drought, all the reference cases except the Ebro refer to the exceptionally hot and dry summer 2003. The drought event examined in the Ebro river basin is the prolonged period of deficient precipitation between 2004 and 2008. The

Risk Governance of Multiple Natural Hazards: Centralized versus Decentralized Approach in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komendantova, Nadejda; Scolobig, Anna; Vinchon, Charlotte

2014-05-01

The multi-risk approach is a relatively new field and its definition includes the need to consider multiple hazards and vulnerabilities in their interdependency (Selva, 2013) and the current multi-hazards disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe, showed the need for a multi-risk approach in hazard mitigation and management. Our knowledge about multi-risk assessment, including studies from different scientific disciplines and developed assessment tools, is constantly growing (White et al., 2001). However, the link between scientific knowledge, its implementation and the results in terms of improved governance and decision-making have gained significantly less attention (IRGC, 2005; Kappes et al., 2012), even though the interest to risk governance, in general, has increased significantly during the last years (Verweiy and Thompson, 2006). Therefore, the key research question is how risk assessment is implemented and what is the potential for the implementation of a multi-risk approach in different governance systems across Europe. More precisely, how do the characteristics of risk governance, such as the degree of centralization versus decentralization, influence the implementation of a multi-risk approach. The methodology of this research includes comparative case study analysis of top-down and bottom-up interactions in governance in the city of Naples, (Italy), where the institutional landscape is marked by significant autonomy of Italian regions in decision-making processes for assessing the majority of natural risks, excluding volcanic, and in Guadeloupe, French West Indies, an overseas department of France, where the decision-making process is marked by greater centralization in decision making associated with a well established state governance within regions, delegated to the prefect and decentralised services of central ministries. The research design included documentary analysis and extensive empirical work involving

Multi-Hazard Interactions in Guatemala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel; Malamud, Bruce D.

2017-04-01

In this paper, we combine physical and social science approaches to develop a multi-scale regional framework for natural hazard interactions in Guatemala. The identification and characterisation of natural hazard interactions is an important input for comprehensive multi-hazard approaches to disaster risk reduction at a regional level. We use five transdisciplinary evidence sources to organise and populate our framework: (i) internationally-accessible literature; (ii) civil protection bulletins; (iii) field observations; (iv) stakeholder interviews (hazard and civil protection professionals); and (v) stakeholder workshop results. These five evidence sources are synthesised to determine an appropriate natural hazard classification scheme for Guatemala (6 hazard groups, 19 hazard types, and 37 hazard sub-types). For a national spatial extent (Guatemala), we construct and populate a "21×21" hazard interaction matrix, identifying 49 possible interactions between 21 hazard types. For a sub-national spatial extent (Southern Highlands, Guatemala), we construct and populate a "33×33" hazard interaction matrix, identifying 112 possible interactions between 33 hazard sub-types. Evidence sources are also used to constrain anthropogenic processes that could trigger natural hazards in Guatemala, and characterise possible networks of natural hazard interactions (cascades). The outcomes of this approach are among the most comprehensive interaction frameworks for national and sub-national spatial scales in the published literature. These can be used to support disaster risk reduction and civil protection professionals in better understanding natural hazards and potential disasters at a regional scale.

Goal-oriented networks and capacity building for natural hazards - examples in the Dresden region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutter, G.

2013-04-01

Networks and networking are important to build social capacities for natural hazards. However, up to now, it is an open question which types of networks contribute to capacity building under certain circumstances. The paper focuses on the type of a goal-oriented network. The distinction between goal orientation and goal directedness is used to show the following: goal directedness of networks to build capacities for natural hazards involves intensive and continuous processes of sensemaking (Weick, 1995) to specify the network goal. This process of specifying an initial goal statement is important in small and large networks. The governance form of a lead organization network facilitates goal specification. The paper illustrates these findings through evidence from two case studies conducted in the Dresden region in Germany.

From tsunami hazard assessment to risk management in Guadeloupe (F.W.I.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahibo, Narcisse; Dudon, Bernard; Krien, Yann; Arnaud, Gaël; Mercado, Aurelio; Roger, Jean

2017-04-01

The Caribbean region is prone to numerous natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, storm surges, tsunamis, coastal erosion or hurricanes. All these threats may cause great human and economic losses and are thus of prime interest for applied research. One of the main challenges for the scientific community is to conduct state-of-the-art research to assess hazards and share the results with coastal planners and decision makers so that they can regulate land use and develop mitigation strategies. We present here the results of a scientific collaborative project between Guadeloupe and Porto Rico which aimed at bringing a decision-making support to the authorities regarding tsunami hazards. This project led us to build a database of potential extreme events, and to study their impacts on Guadeloupe to investigate storm surge and tsunami hazards. The results were used by local authorities to develop safeguarding and mitigation measures in coastal areas. This project is thus a good example to demonstrate the benefit of inter Caribbean scientific collaboration for natural risks management.

78 FR 53190 - Pipeline Safety: Notice to Operators of Hazardous Liquid and Natural Gas Pipelines of a Recall on...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-28

... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration [Docket No. PHMSA-2013-0185] Pipeline Safety: Notice to Operators of Hazardous Liquid and Natural Gas Pipelines of a Recall on Leak Repair Clamps Due to Defective Seal AGENCY: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety...

Natural Hazards Observer, volume 2, number 4, June 1978

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, A.; Waterstone, P.

1978-06-01

The National Hazards Observer is intended to strengthen communication between research workers and the individuals, organizations and agencies concerned with public action relating to natural hazards. The feature article concerns the strengthened commitment of the Federal Disaster Assistance Administration (FDAA) in hazard mitigation. Also included in this issue are discussions of: (1) preparation of 60-second public service announcements for radio and TV by the Civil Defense Preparedness Agency to call attention to the role of local civil defense organizations in peacetime as well as in nuclear disasters; (2) the request by the public for more scientific earthquake prediction and preparedness;more » (3) a computer-based simulation exercise (ATLANTIS); (4) cooperation between UNESCO and UNDRO (UN Disaster Relief Organization) in earthquake risk research, training, and public education; (5) the endorsement of a resolution by the UN General Assembly which calls for the promotion of measures to facilitate and expedite international relief assistance and to emphasize prevention; (6) a statement of concern that flash floods now rank as the major killer and destroyer among weather-related disasters in the U.S.; (7) estimating the long term effects of floods, tornados, and hurricanes; (8) governors' project on emergency preparedness; (9) emergency evacuation route maps, seismic design and public policy; and (10) geologic awareness. Also included are announcements of conferences, recent publications, Washington Update, and included are annluncements of conference, recent publications, Washington Update, and newly awarded NSF grants.« less

Modeling Compound Flood Hazards in Coastal Embayments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari, H.; Schubert, J. E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Luke, A.; Matthew, R.; Sanders, B. F.

2017-12-01

Coastal cities around the world are built on lowland topography adjacent to coastal embayments and river estuaries, where multiple factors threaten increasing flood hazards (e.g. sea level rise and river flooding). Quantitative risk assessment is required for administration of flood insurance programs and the design of cost-effective flood risk reduction measures. This demands a characterization of extreme water levels such as 100 and 500 year return period events. Furthermore, hydrodynamic flood models are routinely used to characterize localized flood level intensities (i.e., local depth and velocity) based on boundary forcing sampled from extreme value distributions. For example, extreme flood discharges in the U.S. are estimated from measured flood peaks using the Log-Pearson Type III distribution. However, configuring hydrodynamic models for coastal embayments is challenging because of compound extreme flood events: events caused by a combination of extreme sea levels, extreme river discharges, and possibly other factors such as extreme waves and precipitation causing pluvial flooding in urban developments. Here, we present an approach for flood risk assessment that coordinates multivariate extreme analysis with hydrodynamic modeling of coastal embayments. First, we evaluate the significance of correlation structure between terrestrial freshwater inflow and oceanic variables; second, this correlation structure is described using copula functions in unit joint probability domain; and third, we choose a series of compound design scenarios for hydrodynamic modeling based on their occurrence likelihood. The design scenarios include the most likely compound event (with the highest joint probability density), preferred marginal scenario and reproduced time series of ensembles based on Monte Carlo sampling of bivariate hazard domain. The comparison between resulting extreme water dynamics under the compound hazard scenarios explained above provides an insight to the

Glacial hazards: communicating the science and managing the risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, J. M.

2009-04-01

these scientific applications. Communicating the science to students and trying to excite them to the fun of applying these scientific disciplines in the field are important as part of science outreach. It is also important to communicate the science to those in government (local and national) within those countries affected by such hazards and to international funding agencies. There are two issues here: (a) using the media to a positive effect without alarming vulnerable and sensitive communities, and (b) providing the appropriate authorities with the necessary technical information about the hazards, their potential effects if catastrophe strikes, and how to manage the risk in an effective and timely fashion. For (a) where this is not handled correctly, the media are still ever too keen to headline potential catastrophes and unwittingly cause alarm among local communities. The so-called Palcacocha fiasco in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, in April 2003 and the Imja Tsho media flurry of May 2008 in Nepal are but two recent examples. For (b) there needs to be a programme of interaction through workshops between the scientific community and key stakeholders in affected countries. Where these have been undertaken, such as in Bhutan, Nepal and Peru, the outcomes have been extremely productive and beneficial. However, much remains to be done in ensuring that authorities and funding agencies, for example, are aware of existing international guidelines on the assessment of glacial hazards that use objective methodologies, such as those funded by the British Government and published in 2003 (see www.geologyuk.com/mountain_ hazards_group/dfid.htm from which the guidelines can be downloaded in PDF format). Similar workshops, for example, are also being developed separately in Austria by the Glacier and Permafrost Hazard (GAPHAZ) Working Group and in Bhutan by the UNDP.

Natural hazards in the formal education system in Serbia - facts and experiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ćalić, Jelena; Kovačević-Majkić, Jelena; Panić, Milena; Milošević, Marko V.; Miljanović, Dragana

2015-04-01

We present the current situation in the Serbian formal education system with respect to the issues of natural disasters and resilience of the society. The role of obligatory education (through primary and secondary schools) is considered essential, thanks to the fact that the majority of the population acquire this type of education. Although a certain number of natural hazards is covered by the curricula of several subjects (mainly Geography), the hazards are treated almost exclusively as natural processes of increased intensity, and not through their impact on society and its transformation. Therefore we cannot say that the disaster risk reduction is included in the formal curriculum. The analysis covers three main aspects: the legal framework (the background which enables the formal teaching about natural disasters), the present curricula (seen through the contents of geography textbooks) and the present state of the disaster-related knowledge among the pupils. The latter is shown through the results of the poll survey carried out among the pupils in earthquake-struck town of Kraljevo (M 5.4 in 2010). Although the children are highly aware of the need for better coverage of risk reduction in their education, they are not aware that their reactions during the earthquake event were mostly improper. Disaster-related professional trainings for teachers, approved by the Ministry of Education, aim to motivate teachers to include the disaster risk reduction issues into the teaching process even before the formal inclusion of these issues into the curricula.

Stakeholder risk perception associated with natural hazards in Iaşi County (Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciprian Margarint, Mihai; Niculita, Mihai; Roder, Giulia; Tarolli, Paolo

2017-04-01

The strategies to reduce the risks associated with natural hazards are oriented recently to increasing the level of preparedness and prevention, and the quantification of different levels of impact that human society might face. An essential component of this approach lies in the increase of population awareness, the increasing of educational level, and facilitating communication between scientists and different risk managers. In several recent studies, it is emphasised the importance of risk perception, especially for the stakeholders in diminishing the risks associated with natural hazards since a high level of knowledge can substantially improve the response of society to the adverse effects of the disasters. An important issue related to the risk perception is the assessment of those that, in an emergency situation, must decide and take the measures to protect the population. Stakeholders have an increased role in the case of small, isolated and undeveloped communities, where they have the power to direct or even to control the behaviour of lay people. This is the case of the predominantly agricultural rural communities of the north-eastern part of Romania. Here many studies highlighted a high degree of vulnerability (e.g. an ageing population because of a permanent migration of young peoples to large urban centres or abroad, the poor quality and connectivity of the road infrastructure, among others). In this research, a large spectrum of issues related to stakeholders' risk perception from more than 30 rural administrative units from Iasi County (NE Romania) is analysed. More than 200 questionnaires were distributed to key stakeholders: mayors, local police chiefs, farmers, school directors, and priests. These categories are those that have an important role in small Romanian communities during and after the floods, droughts, spring and summer storms, snowstorms, earthquakes or landslides, the main natural hazards in the study area. From the results obtained

Extreme Geohazards: Reducing the Disaster Risk and Increasing Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, Hans-Peter; Stein, Seth; Brocklebank, Sean; Jules-Plag, Shelley; Marsh, Stuart; Campus, Paola

2013-04-01

Extreme geohazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Exposure of human assets to geohazards has increased dramatically in recent decades, and the sensitivity of the built environment and the embedded socio-economic fabric have changed. We are putting the urban environment, including megacities, in harm's way. Paradoxically, innovation during recent decades, in particular, urban innovation, has increased the disaster risk and coupled this risk to the sustainability crisis. Only more innovation can reduce disaster risk and lead us out of the sustainability crisis. Extreme geohazards (volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis) that occurred regularly throughout the last few millennia mostly did not cause major disasters because population density was low and the built environment was not sprawling into hazardous areas to the same extent as today. Similar extreme events today would cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. The Geohazards Community of Practice of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) with support from the European Science Foundation is preparing a white paper assessing the contemporary disaster risks associated with extreme geohazards and developing a vision for science and society to engage in deliberations addressing this risk (see http://www.geohazcop.org/projects/extgeowp). Risk awareness and monitoring is highly uneven across the world, and this creates two kinds of problems. Firstly, potential hazards are much more closely monitored in wealthy countries than in the developing world. But the largest hazards are global in nature, and it is critical to get as much forewarning as possible to develop an effective response. The disasters and near-misses of the past show that adherence to scientific

On mitigating rapid onset natural disasters: Project THRUST (Tsunami Hazards Reduction Utilizing Systems Technology)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernard, E. N.; Behn, R. R.; Hebenstreit, G. T.; Gonzalez, F. I.; Krumpe, P.; Lander, J. F.; Lorca, E.; McManamon, P. M.; Milburn, H. B.

Rapid onset natural hazards have claimed more than 2.8 million lives worldwide in the past 20 years. This category includes such events as earthquakes, landslides, hurricanes, tornados, floods, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and tsunamis. Effective hazard mitigation is particularly difficult in such cases, since the time available to issue warnings can be very short or even nonexistent. This paper presents the concept of a local warning system that exploits and integrates the existing technologies of risk evaluation, environmental measurement, and telecommunications. We describe Project THRUST, a successful implementation of this general, systematic approach to tsunamis. The general approach includes pre-event emergency planning, real-time hazard assessment, and rapid warning via satellite communication links.

Connecting the Public to Natural Hazards Through a Hands-on Museum Exhibit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olds, S. E.; Rowe, S. M.; Hanshumaker, W.; Farley, M.

2014-12-01

Communities along the coast of Oregon, Washington, and northern California live with the threat of potentially devastating subduction zone earthquakes and subsequent tsunami that could happen at any time. Both residents and visitors to the coast need to be aware of the potential impacts such hazards can have on their lives as well as what to do during an earthquake and before a tsunami hits. To raise awareness of both natural hazards and the technologies used to monitor them, UNAVCO designed and installed a museum exhibit on display at Oregon State University's Hatfield Marine Science Center (HMSC) Visitor Center in Newport, Oregon. The objectives for the exhibit are to increase familiarization with the natural hazards of earthquakes and tsunamis in the Cascadia region, to explain the connection between the crust's movement and compression over time with the potential strength of a subduction-zone earthquake, and to inform visitors about high-precision, high-rate GPS technology. The exhibit includes multiple hands-on models and an authentic GPS monitoring station. Additionally, panels explain the science behind the models, potential impacts of a great earthquake to society, and actions visitors can take to practice earthquake safety through the Great ShakeOut earthquake drill. Over the past year that the exhibit has been open to the public, it has been visited by over 100,000 people including students, family and senior groups, and the general public. Anecdotal evidence indicates that two components of the exhibit create the most visitor impact providing visitors with 'ah ha moments': a real-scale tape measure showing the approximate 12 foot distance the coast has compressed over the past 300+ years, and a flexible map illustrating that the coastal areas are compressing the most compared to areas further inland. Through HMSC's NSF-funded Cyberlab automated visitor data collection system, we have been able to document and analyze a variety of visitor characteristics

Goal-oriented networks and capacity building for natural hazards - examples in the Dresden region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutter, G.

2014-01-01

Networks and networking are important for building social capacities for natural hazards. However, up to now, it has been an open question which types of networks contribute to capacity building under certain circumstances. The paper focuses on the type of a goal-oriented network. The distinction between goal orientation and goal directedness is used to show the following: goal directedness of networks to build capacities for natural hazards involves intensive and continuous processes of "sensemaking" (Weick, 1995) to specify the network goal. This process of specifying an initial goal statement is important in small and large networks at the regional level. The governance form of a lead organization network facilitates goal specification. The paper illustrates these findings through evidence from two case studies conducted in the Dresden region in Germany.

ThinkHazard!: an open-source, global tool for understanding hazard information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Nunez, Ariel; Deparday, Vivien; Saito, Keiko; Murnane, Richard; Balog, Simone

2016-04-01

Rapid and simple access to added-value natural hazard and disaster risk information is a key issue for various stakeholders of the development and disaster risk management (DRM) domains. Accessing available data often requires specialist knowledge of heterogeneous data, which are often highly technical and can be difficult for non-specialists in DRM to find and exploit. Thus, availability, accessibility and processing of these information sources are crucial issues, and an important reason why many development projects suffer significant impacts from natural hazards. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is currently developing a new open-source tool to address this knowledge gap: ThinkHazard! The main aim of the ThinkHazard! project is to develop an analytical tool dedicated to facilitating improvements in knowledge and understanding of natural hazards among non-specialists in DRM. It also aims at providing users with relevant guidance and information on handling the threats posed by the natural hazards present in a chosen location. Furthermore, all aspects of this tool will be open and transparent, in order to give users enough information to understand its operational principles. In this presentation, we will explain the technical approach behind the tool, which translates state-of-the-art probabilistic natural hazard data into understandable hazard classifications and practical recommendations. We will also demonstrate the functionality of the tool, and discuss limitations from a scientific as well as an operational perspective.

HAZPAC; an interactive map of Pacific Rim natural hazards, population, and infrastructure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bemis, B.L.; Goss, H.V.; Yurkovich, E.S.; Perron, T.J.; Howell, D.G.

2002-01-01

This is an online version of a CD-ROM publication. The text files that describe using this publication make reference to software provided on the disc. For this online version the software can be downloaded for free from Adobe Systems and Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI). Welcome to HAZPAC! HAZPAC is an interactive map about natural hazard risk in the Pacific Rim region. It is intended to communicate to a broad audience the ideas of 'Crowding the Rim,' which is an international, public-private partnership that fosters collaborative solutions for regional risks. HAZPAC, which stands for 'HAZards of the PACific,' uses Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to help people visualize the socioeconomic connections and shared hazard vulnerabilities among Pacific Rim countries, as well as to explore the general nature of risk. Please refer to the 'INTRODUCTION TO HAZPAC' section of the readme file below to determine which HAZPAC project will be right for you. Once you have decided which HAZPAC project is suitable for you, please refer to the 'GETTING STARTED' sections in the readme file for some basic information that will help you begin using HAZPAC. Also, we highly recommend that you follow the Tutorial exercises in the project-specific HAZPAC User Guides. The User Guides are PDF (Portable Document Format) files that must be read with Adobe Acrobat Reader (a free copy of Acrobat Reader is available using the link near the bottom of this page).

Crowdsourcing as citizen-empowered tool for natural hazards. The MAppERS project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bossi, Giulia; Mantovani, Matteo; Frigerio, Simone; Møller Janniche, Amalie; Bianchizza, Chiara; Del Bianco, Daniele

2016-04-01

MAppERS is a co-financed project by European Commission and it is focused on natural hazards risk prevention and emergency response, through the development of a smartphone application. The idea relies on the role of citizens and volunteers as 'territorial mappers' and the information they can provide to civil protection operators through the use of their smartphones. The strategy is to promote the active participation of citizens and volunteers in disaster risk reduction promoting responsibility and preparedness. The application embraces tools for crowdsourcing data collection, for preparedness, prevention and alert warnings. The pilot activity conducted in order to assess its usability and performance is presented. One activity presented took place in Denmark, by Frederikssund Halsnæs Fire & Rescue Service, where 12 voluntary citizens were enrolled. The age ranged between young and elderly people with different educational level. Two separated groups were defined; one followed an introductory course on the application usage and were supervised during the test, while the other was untrained and without support. The usability of the app was assessed through the filling in of a form. Results showed that volunteers were extremely interested in the app and were seeing the advantage of using it. The app was considered user-friendly even to elderly people. The differences in comprehension of several aspects of the application by the two groups allowed to highlight the weak points in terms of approachability. These were then addressed in the following release of the app.

Challenge theme 6: Natural hazard risks in the Borderlands: Chapter 8 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Page, William R.; Parcher, Jean W.; Stefanov, Jim

2013-01-01

Natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides and debris flows, wildfires, hurricanes, and intense storm-induced flash floods threaten communities to varying degrees all along the United States–Mexican border. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborates with Federal, State, and local agencies to minimize the effects of natural hazards by providing timely, unbiased science information to emergency response officials, resource managers, and the public to help reduce property damage, injury, and loss of life. The USGS often mobilizes response efforts during and after a natural hazard event to provide technical and scientific counsel on recovery and response, and it has a long history of deploying emergency response teams to major disasters in both domestic and international locations. This chapter describes the challenges of natural hazards in the United States–Mexican border region and the capabilities of the USGS in the fields of hazard research, monitoring, and assessment, as well as preventative mitigation and post-disaster response.

"I Can Live With This" - Talking To Communities About Natural Hazard Risk: A Story From New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saunders, W. S. A.; Kilvington, M.; Van Dissen, R. J.

2016-12-01

Talking to people about a risk they might face in the future as a result of decisions they make in the present is notoriously hard; even when the consequences are quite apparent. Talking to entire communities about the risks of natural hazard events can seem almost impossible. However, the world we live in is changing, and talking to communities about likely hazard events such as greater and more dramatic storm and flood events, sea level rise, or coastal erosion is something that local government agencies have to do more and more. Moreover, as well as communicating what is known about the science of natural hazards, local governments have to talk about the possible impacts and the risk. One of the most important questions local agencies and communities face is "what can we live with and what must we do something about?" In this presentation we share how one local government agency in New Zealand took on the challenge of talking to their community about planning for future land use that takes account of natural hazard risk. They used an innovative process that helped people understand complex risk concepts; reflect on both the consequences and likelihood of hazard events; and then consider the implications for themselves and their community. This process engaged the public imagination and produced a robust response that could be evaluated alongside technical input on risk thresholds and integrated into final (statutory and defendable) land use policy decisions.

Geophysical Tools, Challenges and Perspectives Related to Natural Hazards, Climate Change and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fucugauchi, J. U.

2013-05-01

In the coming decades a changing climate and natural hazards will likely increase the vulnerability of agricultural and other food production infrastructures, posing increasing treats to industrialized and developing economies. While food security concerns affect us globally, the huge differences among countries in stocks, population size, poverty levels, economy, technologic development, transportation, health care systems and basic infrastructure will pose a much larger burden on populations in the developing and less developed world. In these economies, increase in the magnitude, duration and frequency of droughts, floods, hurricanes, rising sea levels, heat waves, thunderstorms, freezing events and other phenomena will pose severe costs on the population. For this presentation, we concentrate on a geophysical perspective of the problems, tools available, challenges and short and long-term perspectives. In many instances, a range of natural hazards are considered as unforeseen catastrophes, which suddenly affect without warning, resulting in major losses. Although the forecasting capacity in the different situations arising from climate change and natural hazards is still limited, there are a range of tools available to assess scenarios and forecast models for developing and implementing better mitigation strategies and prevention programs. Earth observation systems, geophysical instrumental networks, satellite observatories, improved understanding of phenomena, expanded global and regional databases, geographic information systems, higher capacity for computer modeling, numerical simulations, etc provide a scientific-technical framework for developing strategies. Hazard prevention and mitigation programs will result in high costs globally, however major costs and challenges concentrate on the less developed economies already affected by poverty, famines, health problems, social inequalities, poor infrastructure, low life expectancy, high population growth

High natural antibody titers of indigenous chickens are related with increased hazard in confinement

PubMed Central

Wondmeneh, E.; Van Arendonk, J. A. M.; Van der Waaij, E. H.; Ducro, B. J.; Parmentier, H. K.

2015-01-01

Natural antibody (NAb) levels and survival rates were evaluated in 4 breeds of laying hens in Ethiopia: indigenous, improved indigenous, exotic layer, and crossbred. Titers of NAb isotypes IgG and IgM binding keyhole limpet hemocyanin (KLH) in serum were measured at 20, 26, 35, and 45 wk age. Repeated-measure ANOVA showed that IgG and IgM levels vary with time within each breed (P < 0.05). Indigenous chickens had significantly (P < 0.05) higher NAb levels at all ages. The Cox proportional hazard analysis showed increased hazard with increased levels of NAbs in the exotic layers (P < 0.05). However, the reduced hazards with increased levels of NAbs were not significant in the improved indigenous and crossbred chickens. Indigenous chickens showed increased hazard with increasing levels of NAb (P > 0.05). We concluded that not only the NAb levels but also the effect of Nabs on survival vary between indigenous and improved breeds. The results indicate that NAb levels are associated with survival in elite (improved) breeds, but are associated with increased hazard in indigenous chickens. PMID:25910906

Seismic‐hazard forecast for 2016 including induced and natural earthquakes in the central and eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2016-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a one‐year (2016) probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for the central and eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes that are constructed with probabilistic methods using alternative data and inputs. This hazard assessment builds on our 2016 final model (Petersen et al., 2016) by adding sensitivity studies, illustrating hazard in new ways, incorporating new population data, and discussing potential improvements. The model considers short‐term seismic activity rates (primarily 2014–2015) and assumes that the activity rates will remain stationary over short time intervals. The final model considers different ways of categorizing induced and natural earthquakes by incorporating two equally weighted earthquake rate submodels that are composed of alternative earthquake inputs for catalog duration, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground‐motion models. These alternatives represent uncertainties on how we calculate earthquake occurrence and the diversity of opinion within the science community. In this article, we also test sensitivity to the minimum moment magnitude between M 4 and M 4.7 and the choice of applying a declustered catalog with b=1.0 rather than the full catalog with b=1.3. We incorporate two earthquake rate submodels: in the informed submodel we classify earthquakes as induced or natural, and in the adaptive submodel we do not differentiate. The alternative submodel hazard maps both depict high hazard and these are combined in the final model. Results depict several ground‐shaking measures as well as intensity and include maps showing a high‐hazard level (1% probability of exceedance in 1 year or greater). Ground motions reach 0.6g horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) in north‐central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2g PGA in the Raton basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in

The impact of natural hazard on critical infrastructure systems: definition of an ontology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimauro, Carmelo; Bouchon, Sara; Frattini, Paolo; Giusto, Claudia

2013-04-01

According to the Council of the European Union Directive (2008), 'critical infrastructure' means an asset, system or part thereof which is essential for the maintenance of vital societal functions, health, safety, security, economic or social well-being of people, and the disruption or destruction of which would have a significant impact as a result of the failure to maintain those functions. Critical infrastructure networks are exposed to natural events, such as floods, storms, landslides, earthquakes, etc. Recent natural disasters show that socio-economic consequences can be very much aggravated by the impact on these infrastructures. Though, there is still a lack of a recognized approach or methodology to assess the vulnerability of critical infrastructure assets against natural threats. The difficulty to define such an approach is increased by the need to consider a very high number of natural events, which differ in nature, magnitude and probability, as well as the need to assess the vulnerability of a high variety of infrastructure assets (e.g. bridges, roads, tunnels, pipelines, etc.) To meet this challenge, the objective of the THREVI2 EU-CIPS project is to create a database linking the relationships between natural hazards and critical infrastructure assets. The query of the database will allow the end-users (critical infrastructure protection authorities and operators) to identify the relevant scenarios according to the own priorities and criteria. The database builds on an ontology optimized for the assessment of the impact of threats on critical infrastructures. The ontology aims at capturing the existing knowledge on natural hazards, critical infrastructures assets and their related vulnerabilities. Natural phenomena that can threaten critical infrastructures are classified as "events", and organized in a genetic-oriented hierarchy. The main attributes associated to each event are the probability, the magnitude and the "modus". The modus refers to the

77 FR 74859 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-18

... resolution process. SRPs are independent panels of experts in hydrology, hydraulics, and other pertinent...://www.in.gov/dnr/water/6401.htm City of Delphi Carroll County Area Plan Commission, Carroll County... Inspection Online at: http://www.in.gov/dnr/water/7339.htm Town of Cumberland Municipal Building, 11501 East...

77 FR 58560 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-21

... resolution process. SRPs are independent panels of experts in hydrology, hydraulics, and other pertinent.../dnr/water/6497.htm City of Tipton Tipton County Courthouse, 101 East Jefferson Street, Tipton, IN... Incorporated Areas Maps Available for Inspection Online at: http://www.in.gov/dnr/water/6648.htm City of...

78 FR 8181 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-05

... panels of experts in hydrology, hydraulics, and other pertinent sciences established to review... Inspection Online at: http://www.in.gov/dnr/water/6476.htm City of Hartford City Blackford County Area... Online at: http://www.in.gov/dnr/water/5775.htm City of Carmel Department of Community Services, One...

Extending natural hazard impacts: an assessment of landslide disruptions on a national road transportation network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Postance, Benjamin; Hillier, John; Dijkstra, Tom; Dixon, Neil

2017-01-01

Disruptions to transportation networks by natural hazard events cause direct losses (e.g. by physical damage) and indirect socio-economic losses via travel delays and decreased transportation efficiency. The severity and spatial distribution of these losses varies according to user travel demands and which links, nodes or infrastructure assets are physically disrupted. Increasing transport network resilience, for example by targeted mitigation strategies, requires the identification of the critical network segments which if disrupted would incur undesirable or unacceptable socio-economic impacts. Here, these impacts are assessed on a national road transportation network by coupling hazard data with a transport network model. This process is illustrated using a case study of landslide hazards on the road network of Scotland. A set of possible landslide-prone road segments is generated using landslide susceptibility data. The results indicate that at least 152 road segments are susceptible to landslides, which could cause indirect economic losses exceeding £35 k for each day of closure. In addition, previous estimates for historic landslide events might be significant underestimates. For example, the estimated losses for the 2007 A83 ‘Rest and Be Thankful’ landslide are £80 k day-1, totalling £1.2 million over a 15 day closure, and are ˜60% greater than previous estimates. The spatial distribution of impact to road users is communicated in terms of ‘extended hazard impact footprints’. These footprints reveal previously unknown exposed communities and unanticipated spatial patterns of severe disruption. Beyond cost-benefit analyses for landslide mitigation efforts, the approach implemented is applicable to other natural hazards (e.g. flooding), combinations of hazards, or even other network disruption events.

Civil Protection issues in urban management of natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bostenaru, Maria; Georgescu, Sever; Goretti, Agostino; Markus, Michael

2010-05-01

This paper reviews different approaches of collaboration with the Civil Protection across Europe, from the experience of the author. The first contact came working as a research assistant at the Universität Karlsruhe (TH), Germany, in frame of the SFB (Collaborative Research Centre) 461 "Strong earthquakes", which featured a collaboration Germany-Romania. The subproject C7, where involved, about Novel Rescue technologies was a collaboration between the Institute for Technology and Management in Construction, formerly Institute for Construction Management and Machinery, and the Romanian Civil Protection. The scientific results of the project were to be lated implemented by the Civil Protection. In course of the work contacts were done also through the work of the research associate, sub-project leader, in the THW (German Technical Assistance). Later on work continued at the same institute but in frame of the Research Training Network "Natural Disasters" when also contacts with the Romanian representative to the European Earthquake Engineering Association, were established. Working further in the same field of Natural Disasters, especially seismic risk, brought the author to the ROSE School in Pavia, Italy, researches of which closely collaborate with the EUCENTRE, founded, among other institutions, by the Italian Civil Protection. Particularly the collaboration with specialists from the Italian Civil Protection resulted in several initiatives, such as: - paper contribution to a special issue edited by the author, - organisation of EGU sessions on the topic of "Natural Hazards' Impact on Urban Areas and Infrastructure", - invited review of papers, - attendance of short course coordinated at the ROSE School on post-earthquake safety assessment, - ellaboration of scientific projects submitted for funding on the topic of earthquake hazard impact at various geographic scales, - further publication collaborations are in work, - it is intended to improve the collaboration

Some aspects of risks and natural hazards in the rainfall variability space of Rwanda.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Penna, Ivanna; Kanevski, Mikhaïl

2014-05-01

Rwanda is facing challenges related to its dispersed population and their density. Risk assessment for natural disasters is becoming important in order to reduce the extent and damages of natural disasters. Rwanda is a country with a diversity of landscapes. Its mountains and marshes have been considered as a water reserve, a forest and grazing reserve by the population (currently around 11 million). Due to geologic and climate conditions, the country is subject of different natural processes, in particular hydrological events (flooding and also landslides), but also earthquakes and volcanism, which the communities have to live with in the western part. In the last years, population expansion for land by clearing of forests and draining marshes, seems to be acting as an aggravating factor. Therefore, a risk assessment for rainfall related hazards requires a deep understanding of the precipitation patterns. Based on satellite image interpretation, historical reports of events, and the analysis of rainfalls variability mapping and probabilistic analyses of events, the aim of this case study is to produce an overview and a preliminary assessment of the hazards scenario in Rwanda.

Daring the Foolish to Take Darwin Tests: The Ethical Double Bind of Betting On Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halpern, J. B.

2017-12-01

While couched in the framework of concentrating minds betting on natural hazards carries an ethical cost. When children dare each other to do risky things parents know that when such dares are taken harm frequently occurs. Giving those who claim that there is no hazard financial reasons to avoid ameliorative actions or to double down in support of their public stance requires a moral calculation. Challenging the conclusions of those who accept such bets while denying danger will lead them to attempt to save face by increasing risk to themselves or others. Thus such wagers, whether person to person or on betting markets, require balancing between alerting the opposing party and others to the risks of not taking action, the associated scientific consensus and the possible harmful outcomes of the bets themselves. This talk will describe strategies for minimizing potential harm while maximizing the instructive component of climate bets. Best practices include having the bet rest on a technical issue that can be authoritatively resolved in a short time. Unfortunately the nature of natural hazard risks makes it difficult to meet all of these criteria, but those making such bets should be aware of the ethical double bind

78 FR 28888 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-16

... resolution process. SRPs are independent panels of experts in hydrology, hydraulics, and other pertinent.../dnr/water/6670.htm City of Oakland City City Hall, 210 East Washington Street, Oakland City, IN 47660... Areas Maps Available for Inspection Online at: http://www.in.gov/dnr/water/6472.htm City of Martinsville...

77 FR 67016 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-08

... resolution process. SRPs are independent panels of experts in hydrology, hydraulics, and other pertinent... at: http://www.in.gov/dnr/water/6644.htm Town of Brookville Franklin County Government Center, Area...://www.in.gov/dnr/water/6415.htm Town of Liberty Union County Area Plan Commission, 6 West South Street...

49 CFR 173.2 - Hazardous materials classes and index to hazard class definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

....50 1 1.6 Extremely insensitive detonating substances 173.50 2 2.1 Flammable gas 173.115 2 2.2 Non-flammable compressed gas 173.115 2 2.3 Poisonous gas 173.115 3 Flammable and combustible liquid 173.120 4 4... PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAZARDOUS MATERIALS...

49 CFR 173.2 - Hazardous materials classes and index to hazard class definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

....50 1 1.6 Extremely insensitive detonating substances 173.50 2 2.1 Flammable gas 173.115 2 2.2 Non-flammable compressed gas 173.115 2 2.3 Poisonous gas 173.115 3 Flammable and combustible liquid 173.120 4 4... PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAZARDOUS MATERIALS...

49 CFR 173.2 - Hazardous materials classes and index to hazard class definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

....50 1 1.6 Extremely insensitive detonating substances 173.50 2 2.1 Flammable gas 173.115 2 2.2 Non-flammable compressed gas 173.115 2 2.3 Poisonous gas 173.115 3 Flammable and combustible liquid 173.120 4 4... PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAZARDOUS MATERIALS...

49 CFR 173.2 - Hazardous materials classes and index to hazard class definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

....50 1 1.6 Extremely insensitive detonating substances 173.50 2 2.1 Flammable gas 173.115 2 2.2 Non-flammable compressed gas 173.115 2 2.3 Poisonous gas 173.115 3 Flammable and combustible liquid 173.120 4 4... PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAZARDOUS MATERIALS...

Wind-driven rain and its implications for natural hazard management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzen, Miriam; Iserloh, Thomas; de Lima, João L. M. P.; Fister, Wolfgang; Ries, Johannes B.

2017-04-01

Prediction and risk assessment of hydrological extremes are great challenges. Following climate predictions, frequent and violent rainstorms will become a new hazard to several regions in the medium term. Particularly agricultural soils will be severely threatened due to the combined action of heavy rainfall and accompanying winds on bare soil surfaces. Basing on the general underestimation of the effect of wind on rain erosion, conventional soil erosion measurements and modeling approaches lack related information to adequately calculate its impact. The presented experimental-empirical approach shows the powerful impact of wind on the erosive potential of rain. The tested soils had properties that characterise three different environments 1. Silty loam of semi-arid Mediterranean dryfarming and fallow, 2. clayey loam of humid agricultural sites and 3. cohesionless sandy substrates as found at coasts, dune fields and drift-sand areas. Erosion was found to increase by a factor of 1.3 to 7.1, depending on site characteristics. Complementary tests with a laboratory procedure were used to quantify explicitly the effect of wind on raindrop erosion as well as the influence of substrate, surface structure and slope on particle displacement. These tests confirmed the impact of wind-driven rain on total erosion rates to be of great importance when compared to all other tested factors. To successfully adapt soil erosion models to near-future challenges of climate change induced rain storms, wind-driven rain is supposed to be introduced into the hazard management agenda.

Urban Heat Wave Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D. A.; Jedlovec, G.; Crane, D. L.; Meyer, P. J.; LaFontaine, F.

2016-12-01

Heat waves are one of the largest causes of environmentally-related deaths globally and are likely to become more numerous as a result of climate change. The intensification of heat waves by the urban heat island effect and elevated humidity, combined with urban demographics, are key elements leading to these disasters. Better warning of the potential hazards may help lower risks associated with heat waves. Moderate resolution thermal data from NASA satellites is used to derive high spatial resolution estimates of apparent temperature (heat index) over urban regions. These data, combined with demographic data, are used to produce a daily heat hazard/risk map for selected cities. MODIS data are used to derive daily composite maximum and minimum land surface temperature (LST) fields to represent the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle and identify extreme heat days. Compositing routines are used to generate representative daily maximum and minimum LSTs for the urban environment. The limited effect of relative humidity on the apparent temperature (typically 10-15%) allows for the use of modeled moisture fields to convert LST to apparent temperature without loss of spatial variability. The daily max/min apparent temperature fields are used to identify abnormally extreme heat days relative to climatological values in order to produce a heat wave hazard map. Reference to climatological values normalizes the hazard for a particular region (e.g., the impact of an extreme heat day). A heat wave hazard map has been produced for several case study periods and then computed on a quasi-operational basis during the summer of 2016 for Atlanta, GA, Chicago, IL, St. Louis, MO, and Huntsville, AL. A hazard does not become a risk until someone or something is exposed to that hazard at a level that might do harm. Demographic information is used to assess the urban risk associated with the heat wave hazard. Collectively, the heat wave hazard product can warn people in urban

Landslides! Engaging students in natural hazards and STEM principles through the exploration of landslide analog models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gochis, E. E.; Lechner, H. N.; Brill, K. A.; Lerner, G.; Ramos, E.

2014-12-01

Graduate students at Michigan Technological University developed the "Landslides!" activity to engage middle & high school students participating in summer engineering programs in a hands-on exploration of geologic engineering and STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math) principles. The inquiry-based lesson plan is aligned to Next Generation Science Standards and is appropriate for 6th-12th grade classrooms. During the activity students focus on the factors contributing to landslide development and engineering practices used to mitigate hazards of slope stability hazards. Students begin by comparing different soil types and by developing predictions of how sediment type may contribute to differences in slope stability. Working in groups, students then build tabletop hill-slope models from the various materials in order to engage in evidence-based reasoning and test their predictions by adding groundwater until each group's modeled slope fails. Lastly students elaborate on their understanding of landslides by designing 'engineering solutions' to mitigate the hazards observed in each model. Post-evaluations from students demonstrate that they enjoyed the hands-on nature of the activity and the application of engineering principles to mitigate a modeled natural hazard.

Explosion Hazards Associated with Spills of Large Quantities of Hazardous Materials. Phase I

DTIC Science & Technology

1974-10-01

quantities of hazardous material such as liquified natural gas ( LNG ), liquified petroleum gils (LPG), or ethylene. The principal results are (1) a...associated with spills of large quantities of hazardous material such as liquified natural gas ( LNG ), liquified petroleum gas (LPG), or ethylene. The...liquified natural gas ( LNG ). Unfortunately, as the quantity of material shipped at one time increases, so does the potential hazard associated with

Extreme risk assessment based on normalized historic loss data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichner, Jan

2017-04-01

Natural hazard risk assessment and risk management focuses on the expected loss magnitudes of rare and extreme events. Such large-scale loss events typically comprise all aspects of compound events and accumulate losses from multiple sectors (including knock-on effects). Utilizing Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE direct economic loss data, we beriefly recap a novel methodology of peril-specific loss data normalization which improves the stationarity properties of highly non-stationary historic loss data (due to socio-economic growth of assets prone to destructive forces), and perform extreme value analysis (peaks-over-threshold method) to come up with return level estimates of e.g. 100-yr loss event scenarios for various types of perils, globally or per continent, and discuss uncertainty in the results.

Assessment of natural radioactivity and radiological hazards in building materials used in Yan'an, China.

PubMed

Lu, Xinwei; Li, Nan; Yang, Guang; Zhao, Caifeng

2013-03-01

The concentration of natural radionuclides in commonly used building materials collected from Yan'an, China, was determined using gamma ray spectroscopy with a NaI(Tl) detector. The activity concentration of ²²⁶Ra, ²³²Th, and ⁴⁰K in the studied building materials ranges from 9.4-73.1, 11.5-86.9, and 258.9-1,055.1 Bq kg⁻¹, respectively. The concentrations for these natural radionuclides were compared with the reported data of other countries and the world mean values for soil. The radium equivalent activity (Raeq), external hazard index (Hex), internal hazard index (Hin), indoor air absorbed dose rate, and annual effective dose rate due to natural radionuclides in samples were estimated to assess radiological hazards for people living in dwellings made of the studied building materials. The calculated Raeq values of all building materials (75.7-222.1 Bq kg⁻¹) are lower than the limit of 370 Bq kg⁻¹. The values of Hex and Hin are less than unity. The mean values of indoor air absorbed dose rates of all building materials (101.0 ± 14.1-177.0 ± 6.8 nGy h⁻¹) are higher than the world population-weighted average of 84 nGy h⁻¹, while the mean values of annual effective dose range from 0.50 ± 0.07-0.87 ± 0.03 mSv y⁻¹, which are lower than the recommended limit of 1 mSv y⁻¹. It is found that these materials may be used safely as construction materials and do not pose significant radiation hazards to inhabitants.

The effect of natural disturbances on the risk from hydrogeomorphic hazards under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheidl, Christian; Thaler, Thomas; Seidl, Rupert; Rammer, Werner; Kohl, Bernhard; Markart, Gerhard

2017-04-01

Recent storm events in Austria show once more how floods, sediment transport processes and debris flows constitute a major threat in alpine regions with a high density of population and an increasing spatial development. As protection forests have a major control function on runoff and erosion, they directly affect the risk from such hydrogeomorphic processes. However, research on future climate conditions, with an expected increase of the global average surface temperature of 3-5°C by 2100, compared to the first decade of the 20th century, raises a number of open questions for a sustainable and improved hazard management in mountain forests. For Europe, for instance, a climate-induced increase in forest disturbances like wildfire, wind, and insect's outbreaks is highly likely for the coming decades. Especially in protection forests, future scenarios of such climate induced natural disturbances and their impact on the protective effect remain an unresolved issue. Combining methods from forestry, hydrology and geotechnical engineering our project uses an integral approach to simulate possible effects of natural disturbances on hydrogeomorphic hazards in the perspective of future protection forest developments. With the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand) we conduct an ensemble of forest landscape simulations, assessing the impact of future changes in natural disturbance regimes in four selected torrential catchments. These catchments are situated in two different forest growth areas. Drainage rate simulations are based on the conceptual hydrological model (ZEMOKOST), whereas simulations of the effect of forest disturbances on hillslope erosion processes are conducted by the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). Beside process based simulations, we also emphasis to identify the risk perception and adaptive capacity to mitigate a probable loss of protection functions in forests. For this reason, a postal survey among

77 FR 73490 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-10

... resolution process. SRPs are independent panels of experts in hydrology, hydraulics, and other pertinent...://www.in.gov/dnr/water/6573.htm City of Rising Sun City Hall, 200 North Walnut Street, Rising Sun, IN....in.gov/dnr/water/7357.htm Town of Gosport Town Hall, 13 South 3rd Street, Gosport, IN 47433. Town of...

Coastal flooding hazard related to storms and coastal evolution in Valdelagrana spit (Cadiz Bay Natural Park, SW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavente, J.; Del Río, L.; Gracia, F. J.; Martínez-del-Pozo, J. A.

2006-06-01

Mapping of coastal inundation hazard related to storms requires the combination of multiple sources of information regarding meteorological, morphological and dynamic characteristics of both the area at risk and the studied phenomena. Variables such as beach slope, storm wave height or wind speed have traditionally been used, but detailed geomorphological features of the area as well as long-term shoreline evolution trends must also be taken into account in order to achieve more realistic results. This work presents an evaluation of storm flooding hazard in Valdelagrana spit and marshes (SW Spain), considering two types of storm that are characteristic of the area: a modal storm with 1 year of recurrence interval (maximum wave height of 3.3 m), and an extreme storm with 6-10 years of recurrence interval (maximum wave height of 10.6 m), both approaching the coast perpendicularly. After calculating theoretical storm surge elevation, a digital terrain model was made by adjusting topographic data to field work and detailed geomorphological analysis. A model of flooding extent was subsequently developed for each storm type, and then corrected according to the rates of shoreline change in the last decades, which were assessed by means of aerial photographs taking the dune toe as shoreline indicator. Results show that long-term coastline trend represents an important factor in the prediction of flooding extent, since shoreline retreat causes the deterioration of natural coastal defences as dune ridges, thus increasing coastal exposure to high-energy waves. This way, it has been stated that the lack of sedimentary supply plays an important role in spatial variability of inundation extent in Valdelagrana spit. Finally, a hazard map is presented, where calculated coastal retreat rates are employed in order to predict the areas that could be affected by future inundation events.

High natural antibody titers of indigenous chickens are related with increased hazard in confinement.

PubMed

Wondmeneh, E; Van Arendonk, J A M; Van der Waaij, E H; Ducro, B J; Parmentier, H K

2015-07-01

Natural antibody (NAb) levels and survival rates were evaluated in 4 breeds of laying hens in Ethiopia: indigenous, improved indigenous, exotic layer, and crossbred. Titers of NAb isotypes IgG and IgM binding keyhole limpet hemocyanin (KLH) in serum were measured at 20, 26, 35, and 45 wk age. Repeated-measure ANOVA showed that IgG and IgM levels vary with time within each breed (P < 0.05). Indigenous chickens had significantly (P < 0.05) higher NAb levels at all ages. The Cox proportional hazard analysis showed increased hazard with increased levels of NAbs in the exotic layers (P < 0.05). However, the reduced hazards with increased levels of NAbs were not significant in the improved indigenous and crossbred chickens. Indigenous chickens showed increased hazard with increasing levels of NAb (P > 0.05). We concluded that not only the NAb levels but also the effect of Nabs on survival vary between indigenous and improved breeds. The results indicate that NAb levels are associated with survival in elite (improved) breeds, but are associated with increased hazard in indigenous chickens. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Poultry Science Association.

Towards an integrated approach to natural hazards risk assessment using GIS: with reference to bushfires.

PubMed

Chen, Keping; Blong, Russell; Jacobson, Carol

2003-04-01

This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to risk assessment in natural hazards, with reference to bushfires. The challenges for undertaking this approach have three components: data integration, risk assessment tasks, and risk decision-making. First, data integration in GIS is a fundamental step for subsequent risk assessment tasks and risk decision-making. A series of spatial data integration issues within GIS such as geographical scales and data models are addressed. Particularly, the integration of both physical environmental data and socioeconomic data is examined with an example linking remotely sensed data and areal census data in GIS. Second, specific risk assessment tasks, such as hazard behavior simulation and vulnerability assessment, should be undertaken in order to understand complex hazard risks and provide support for risk decision-making. For risk assessment tasks involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is important. Third, risk decision-making concerns spatial preferences and/or patterns, and a multicriteria evaluation (MCE)-GIS typology for risk decision-making is presented that incorporates three perspectives: spatial data types, data models, and methods development. Both conventional MCE methods and artificial intelligence-based methods with GIS are identified to facilitate spatial risk decision-making in a rational and interpretable way. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach can be used to assist risk management of natural hazards, in theory and in practice.

Natural enemies govern ecosystem resilience in the face of extreme droughts.

PubMed

He, Qiang; Silliman, Brian R; Liu, Zezheng; Cui, Baoshan

2017-02-01

Severe droughts are on the rise in many regions. But thus far, attempts to predict when drought will cause a major regime shift or when ecosystems are resilient, often using plant drought tolerance models, have been frustrated. Here, we show that pressure from natural enemies regulates an ecosystem's resilience to severe droughts. Field experiments revealed that in protected salt marshes experiencing a severe drought, plant-eating grazers eliminated drought-stressed vegetation that could otherwise survive and recover from the climate extreme, transforming once lush marshes into persistent salt barrens. These results provide an explicit experimental demonstration for the obligatory role of natural enemies across the initiation, expansion and recovery stages of a natural ecosystem's collapse. Our study highlights that natural enemies can hasten an ecosystem's resilience to drought to much lower levels than currently predicted, calling for integration into climate change predictions and conservation strategies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Bike Helmets and Black Riders: Experiential Approaches to Helping Students Understand Natural Hazard Assessment and Mitigation Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, S. A.; Kley, J.; Hindle, D.; Friedrich, A. M.

2014-12-01

Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes game of chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should a developing nation allocate its budget between building schools for towns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant? Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods, or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives be saved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the funds for patient care? These topics are challenging because they are far from normal experience, in that they involve rare events and large sums. To help students in natural hazard classes conceptualize them, we pose tough and thought-provoking questions about complex issues involved and explore them together via lectures, videos, field trips, and in-class and homework questions. We discuss analogous examples from the students' experiences, drawing on a new book "Playing Against Nature, Integrating Science and Economics to Mitigate Natural Hazards in an Uncertain World". Asking whether they wear bicycle helmets and why or why not shows the cultural perception of risk. Individual students' responses vary, and the overall results vary dramatically between the US, UK, and Germany. Challenges in hazard assessment in an uncertain world are illustrated by asking German students whether they buy a ticket on public transportation - accepting a known cost - or "ride black" - not paying but risking a heavy fine if caught. We explore the challenge of balancing mitigation costs and benefits via the question "If you were a student in Los Angeles, how much more would you pay in rent each month to live in an earthquake-safe building?" Students learn that interdisciplinary thinking is needed, and that due to both uncertainties and sociocultural factors, no unique or right strategies exist for a particular community, much the less all communities. However, we can seek robust policies that give sensible results given

The Atlas of Natural Hazards and Risks of Austria: first results for fluvial and pluvial floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mergili, Martin; Tader, Andreas; Glade, Thomas; Neuhold, Clemens; Stiefelmeyer, Heinz

2015-04-01

Incoherent societal adaptation to natural processes results in significant losses every year. A better knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of hazards and risks, and of particular hot spots in a given region or period, is essential for reducing adverse impacts. Commonly, different hazard and risk estimations are performed within individual approaches based on tailor-made concepts. This works well as long as specific cases are considered. The advantage of such a procedure is that each individual hazard and risk is addressed in the best possible manner. The drawback, however, consists in the fact that the results differ significantly in terms of quality and accuracy and therefore cannot be compared. Hence, there is a need to develop a strategy and concept which uses similar data sources of equivalent quality in order to adequately analyze the different natural hazards and risks at broader scales. The present study is aiming to develop such a platform. The project Risk:ATlas focuses on the design of an atlas visualizing the most relevant natural hazards and, in particular, possible consequences for the entire territory of Austria. Available as a web-based tool and as a printed atlas, it is seen as a key tool to improve the basis for risk reduction, risk adaptation and risk transfer. The atlas is founded on those data sets available for the entire territory of Austria at a consistent resolution and quality. A 1 m resolution DEM and the official cadastre and building register represent the core, further data sets are employed according to the requirements for each natural hazard and risk. In this contribution, the methodology and the preliminary results for fluvial and pluvial floods and their consequences to buildings for three selected test areas in different types of landscapes (rural, urban and mountainous) are presented. Flooding depths expected for annualities of 30, 100 and 300 are derived from existing data sets for fluvial floods and are computed

The hostel or the warehouse? Spatiotemporal exposure assessment for natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, S.; Keiler, M.; Zischg, A.

2015-04-01

A spatially explicit object-based temporal assessment of buildings and citizens exposed to natural hazards in Austria is presented, including elements at risk to river flooding, torrential flooding, and snow avalanches. It is shown that the repeatedly-stated assumption of increasing losses due to continued population growth and related increase in assets has to be opposed to the local development of building stock. While some regions have shown a clearly above-average increase in assets, other regions were characterised by a below-average development. This mirrors the topography of the country, but also the different economic activities. While hotels and hostels are extraordinary prone to mountain hazards, commercial buildings as well as buildings used for recreation purpose are considerably exposed to river flooding. Residential buildings have shown an average exposure, compared to the amount of buildings of this type in the overall building stock. In sum, around 5% of all buildings are exposed to mountain hazards, and around 9% to river flooding, with around 1% of the buildings stock being multi-exposed. It is shown that the dynamics of elements at risk exposed have a time lag once land use regulations are enforced, and it is concluded that an object-based assessment has clear advantages compared to the assessment using aggregated land use data.

A compliant mechanism for inspecting extremely confined spaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mascareñas, David; Moreu, Fernando; Cantu, Precious; Shields, Daniel; Wadden, Jack; El Hadedy, Mohamed; Farrar, Charles

2017-11-01

We present a novel, compliant mechanism that provides the capability to navigate extremely confined spaces for the purpose of infrastructure inspection. Extremely confined spaces are commonly encountered during infrastructure inspection. Examples of such spaces can include pipes, conduits, and ventilation ducts. Often these infrastructure features go uninspected simply because there is no viable way to access their interior. In addition, it is not uncommon for extremely confined spaces to possess a maze-like architecture that must be selectively navigated in order to properly perform an inspection. Efforts by the imaging sensor community have resulted in the development of imaging sensors on the millimeter length scale. Due to their compact size, they are able to inspect many extremely confined spaces of interest, however, the means to deliver these sensors to the proper location to obtain the desired images are lacking. To address this problem, we draw inspiration from the field of endoscopic surgery. Specifically we consider the work that has already been done to create long flexible needles that are capable of being steered through the human body. These devices are typically referred to as ‘steerable needles.’ Steerable needle technology is not directly applicable to the problem of navigating maze-like arrangements of extremely confined spaces, but it does provide guidance on how this problem should be approached. Specifically, the super-elastic nitinol tubing material that allows steerable needles to operate is also appropriate for the problem of navigating maze-like arrangements of extremely confined spaces. Furthermore, the portion of the mechanism that enters the extremely confined space is completely mechanical in nature. The mechanical nature of the device is an advantage when the extremely confined space features environmental hazards such as radiation that could degrade an electromechanically operated mechanism. Here, we present a compliant mechanism

Assessing hazards along our Nation's coasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hapke, Cheryl J.; Brenner, Owen; Henderson, Rachel E.; Reynolds, B.J.

2013-01-01

Coastal areas are essential to the economic, cultural, and environmental health of the Nation, yet by nature coastal areas are constantly changing due to a variety of events and processes. Extreme storms can cause dramatic changes to our shorelines in a matter of hours, while sea-level rise can profoundly alter coastal environments over decades. These changes can have a devastating impact on coastal communities, such as the loss of homes built on retreating sea cliffs or protective dunes eroded by storm waves. Sometimes, however, the changes can be positive, such as new habitat created by storm deposits. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is meeting the need for scientific understanding of how our coasts respond to different hazards with continued assessments of current and future changes along U.S. coastlines. Through the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH), the USGS carries out the unique task of quantifying coastal change hazards along open-ocean coasts in the United States and its territories. Residents of coastal communities, emergency managers, and other stakeholders can use science-based data, tools, models, and other products to improve planning and enhance resilience.

Contributions of natural climate changes and human activities to the trend of extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Lu; Huang, Jie; Chen, Xingwei; Chen, Ying; Liu, Meibing

2018-06-01

This study focuses on the analysis of the nonstationarity characteristics of extreme precipitation and their attributions in the southeastern coastal region of China. The maximum daily precipitation (MDP) series is extracted from observations at 79 meteorological stations in the study area during the first flood season (April-June) from 1960 to 2012. The trends of the mean (Mn) and variance (Var) of MDP are detected using the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape parameters (GAMLSS) and Mann-Kendall test. The contributions of natural climate change and human activities to the Mn and Var changes of MDP are investigated using six large-scale circulation variables and emissions of four greenhouse gases based on GAMLSS and a contribution analysis method. The results demonstrate that the nonstationarity of extreme precipitation on local scales is significant. The Mn and Var of extreme precipitation increase in the north of Zhejiang, the middle of Fujian, and the south of Guangdong. In general, natural climate change contributes more to Mn from 1960 to 2012 than to Var. However, human activities cause a greater Var in the rapid socioeconomic development period (1986-2012) than in the slow socioeconomic development period (1960-1985), especially in Zhejiang and Guangdong. The community should pay more attention to the possibility of extreme precipitation events and associated disasters triggered by human activities.

Natural Hazards and the Normative Significance of Expectations in Protecting Alpine Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortner, Florian; Pölzler, Thomas; Meyer, Lukas H.; Sass, Oliver

2017-04-01

Protecting alpine communities from natural hazard events is costly. As climate change has led and will increasingly lead to a higher frequency and intensity of such events, at some point in the future states may consider planned relocations of some of these communities. In this study we investigate the theoretical option of relocations with regard to three alpine areas in Austria that have experienced natural hazard events in the past: the Sölk valleys, the Johnsbach valley, and the St. Lorenzen/Schwarzenbach valleys. More specifically, we focus on residents' expectations about being protected from such events: (1) What do these expectations look like? (2) Are these expectations relevant in determining whether and how the option of relocations ought to be implemented; and if yes, in which sense? First, we report approx. 300 questionnaire surveys and 17 qualitative interviews. These surveys and interviews suggest that residents of the Sölk valleys, the Johnsbach valley and the St. Lorenzen/Schwarzenbach valleys widely share the following expectation, henceforth referred to as "E": "In the foreseeable future the state of Austria will provide us with a level of protection from natural hazards that allows us to continue to live in these valleys". Second, we investigate E's normative significance, i.e., whether and if yes, in which sense it should count in making decisions about relocations. Based on Meyer and Sanklecha (2011, 2014) we propose several general conditions for the normative significance of expectations. Then we argue that E fulfills these conditions to a significant extent. E is highly epistemically legitimate because, among others, residents have so far received a high level of state protection from natural hazards, even in the face of increasing costs; had permission to build their houses in the areas in which they built them, and have not been properly informed about the state's possible inability to provide sufficient protection in the future. E is

Coordination of Individual and Organizational Planning for Natural Hazards (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krantz, D. H.

2013-12-01

Decision making consists of constructing or selecting a plan. This is true at many levels of decision making: individuals or households, small groups, larger organizations, and governments. In each case, plans are constructed or selected taking account of the decision maker's prioritized set of active goals and the decision maker's beliefs about the probability or the extent to which each goal will be attained through a given plan. Planning for mitigation of or response to natural hazards can be improved if the plans of the many decision makers at multiple levels are coordinated. Government planning should ideally be informed by knowledge about the plans of businesses and non-profit organizations as well as knowledge about individual, household, and neighborhood plans. Similarly, plans at the individual and organizational levels should be informed by knowledge of others' plans at the same and at higher and lower levels of aggregation. Coordination can be impaired by differences in goals, differences in beliefs about the instrumentality of plans toward given goals, and also by ignorance of others' goals and plans. Good coordination requires incentives that promote sharing of plans, horizontally and vertically, and that alleviate conflicts in goals and conflicts in beliefs that will inevitably surface once plans are shared. Thus, four different kinds of decision aids are needed to improve natural hazard planning: mechanisms that support horizontal dissemination of plans, mechanisms that support vertical dissemination, mechanisms for examining goal conflicts and reducing these through plans that take others' goals into account, and mechanisms for examining belief conflicts.

The Swiss Virtual Campus Project NAHRIS: Experiences from a Multidisciplinary E-Learning Project in the Natural Hazard and Risk Management Domain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lienert, Christophe; Bischof, Nicole; Hurni, Lorenz

2009-01-01

The overall goal of the Swiss Virtual Campus project Dealing with Natural Hazards and Risk (NAHRIS) is to create a common educational course program that compiles the most recent knowledge in the field of natural hazards and risk management. Several higher education institutes from all parts of Switzerland were involved in the realization of this…

HANZE: a pan-European database of exposure to natural hazards and damaging historical floods since 1870

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paprotny, Dominik; Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

2018-03-01

The influence of social and economic change on the consequences of natural hazards has been a matter of much interest recently. However, there is a lack of comprehensive, high-resolution data on historical changes in land use, population, or assets available to study this topic. Here, we present the Historical Analysis of Natural Hazards in Europe (HANZE) database, which contains two parts: (1) HANZE-Exposure with maps for 37 countries and territories from 1870 to 2020 in 100 m resolution and (2) HANZE-Events, a compilation of past disasters with information on dates, locations, and losses, currently limited to floods only. The database was constructed using high-resolution maps of present land use and population, a large compilation of historical statistics, and relatively simple disaggregation techniques and rule-based land use reallocation schemes. Data encompassed in HANZE allow one to "normalize" information on losses due to natural hazards by taking into account inflation as well as changes in population, production, and wealth. This database of past events currently contains 1564 records (1870-2016) of flash, river, coastal, and compound floods. The HANZE database is freely available at https://data.4tu.nl/repository/collection:HANZE.

The use of Near-surface Geophysics in Evaluating and Assessing Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellerin, L.

2007-12-01

The list of natural hazards that transform the physical environmental is extensive: earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, volcanoes, lahars, landslides and debris flows, avalanches, karst/cavern collapse, heavy-metal contamination, permafrost, liquefaction, and magnetic storms. Because these events or conditions can have significant negative impact on health and infrastructure, the need for knowledge about and education of natural hazards is important. Near-surface geophysics can contribute in significant ways to both the knowledge base and wider understanding of these hazards. The discipline encompasses a wide range of methodologies, some of which are described below. A post-tsunami helicopter electromagnetic (EM) survey along the coasts of Aceh, northern Sumatra was used to discriminate between fresh-water and saltwater aquifers., saltwater intrusion occurred close to the coast as a result of the tsunami and deep saltwater occurrences particularly around 30 m depth were mapped up to several kilometers inland. Based on the survey results recommendations were made to locate shallow hand-dug wells and medium depth (60m) water wells. Utilizing airborne EM and magnetic measurements, a detailed assessment of the internal distribution of altered zones within an active volcano; Mount Rainier (NW USA) showed that alteration is much more restricted than had been inferred from surficial exposures alone. The study also suggested that the collapse of fresh, unaltered portions of the volcano is possible, and no flank of the volcano can be considered immune from lahars during eruption. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) has been used worldwide in a variety of applications from geotechnical investigations related to geologic hazards. These include assessment of transportation infrastructure, which maybe be damaged due to a natural hazard, study of the movement of rock glaciers in the Swiss Alps, and search and recovery of avalanche victims. Permafrost is widespread in polar areas and cold

A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

PubMed

Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-03-01

This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sobel, Adam; Camargo, Suzana; Debucquoy, Wim; Deodatis, George; Gerrard, Michael; Hall, Timothy; Hallman, Robert; Keenan, Jesse; Lall, Upmanu; Levy, Marc;

A Study of Aircraft Fire Hazards Related to Natural Electrical Phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kester, Frank L.; Gerstein, Melvin; Plumer, J. A.

1960-01-01

The problems of natural electrical phenomena as a fire hazard to aircraft are evaluated. Assessment of the hazard is made over the range of low level electrical discharges, such as static sparks, to high level discharges, such as lightning strikes to aircraft. In addition, some fundamental work is presented on the problem of flame propagation in aircraft fuel vent systems. This study consists of a laboratory investigation in five parts: (1) a study of the ignition energies and flame propagation rates of kerosene-air and JP-6-air foams, (2) a study of the rate of flame propagation of n-heptane, n-octane, n-nonane, and n-decane in aircraft vent ducts, (3) a study of the damage to aluminum, titanium, and stainless steel aircraft skin materials by lightning strikes, (4) a study of fuel ignition by lightning strikes to aircraft skins, and (5) a study of lightning induced flame propagation in an aircraft vent system.

Solid Earth and Natural Hazards (SENH) Research and Applications Program and Internation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2001-01-01

This is a final report for grant NAG5-8627 entitled 'Joint UNAVCO and JPL proposal to NASA for support of the Solid Earth and Natural Hazards Research and Applications Program and Internation'. This report consists of the following sections: (1) new installations (with site visits); (2) upgrades (with site visits; (3) upcoming upgrades (with site visits); and (4) data management and archive efforts during the performance period.

78 FR 14565 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-06

..., Building and team.com/lomrs.htm. County (12-03- Chairman at Development 1200P). Large, Loudoun Department... D. Public Works, team.com/lomrs.htm. 2078P). Sessoms, Jr., Municipal Center, Mayor, City of Building... flood insurance premium rates for new buildings and the contents of those buildings. For rating purposes...

78 FR 48885 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-12

...- August 12, 2013...... 420713 Whitpain (12-03- Joseph J. Palmer, Building, 960 team.com/lomrs.htm. 1849P... team.com/lomrs.htm. City of Sachse, Department, 5560 3815 Sachse Road, Highway 78, Building B, Sachse... flood insurance premium rates for new buildings and the contents of those buildings. For rating purposes...

77 FR 16679 - Emergency Planning and Notification; Emergency Planning and List of Extremely Hazardous...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-22

...The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA or the Agency) is taking final action to revise the manner for applying the threshold planning quantities (TPQs) for those extremely hazardous substances (EHSs) that are non-reactive solid chemicals in solution. This revision allows facilities subject to the Emergency Planning requirements that have a non-reactive solid EHS in solution, to first multiply the amount of the solid chemical in solution on-site by 0.2 before determining if this quantity equals or exceeds the lower published TPQ. This change is based on data that shows less potential for non-reactive solid chemicals in solution to remain airborne and dispersed beyond a facility's fence line in the event of an accidental release. Previously, EPA assumed that 100% of non-reactive solid chemicals in solution could become airborne and dispersed beyond the fenceline in the event of an accidental release.

Flood- and drought-related natural hazards activities of the U.S. Geological Survey in New England

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.

2016-03-23

Tools for natural hazard assessment and mitigation • Light detection and ranging (lidar) remote sensing technology • StreamStats Web-based tool for streamflow statistics • Flood inundation mapper

Natural hazards Early career scientist Team (NhET), a newborn group bridging science to a broader community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardo, Luigi; Cigala, Valeria; Rizzi, Jonathan; Craciun, Iulya; Gain, Animesh Kumar; Albano, Raffaele

2017-04-01

Alongside with other major EGU divisions, Natural Hazard has recently formed his Early Career Scientist (ECS) team, known as NhET. NhET was born in 2016 and its scope includes various activities for the EGU members, the international scientific community as well as for the general public. We are a group of six early career researchers, either PhDs or Post-Docs, from different fields of Natural Hazard, keen to promote knowledge exchanges and collaborations. This is done by organizing courses, training sessions and social activities, especially targeting ECSs, during the EGU General Assembly for this year and the next to come. Outside the timeframe of the EGU conference, we constantly promote EGU contents for our division. This is done through the division website (http://www.egu.eu/nh), a mailing list (https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/nhet) and social media. With respect to the latter, a new Facebook page will be launched shortly and other platforms such as Twitter will be used to reach a broader audience. These platforms will foster the transmission of Natural Hazard topics to anyone who is interested. The main content will be researchers' interviews, information about open positions, trainings, open source software, conferences together with news on hazards and their anthropic and environmental impacts. We are NhET and we invite you all to follow and collaborate with us for a more dynamic, efficient and widespread scientific communication.

Identification of Potential Hazard using Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sari, R. M.; Syahputri, K.; Rizkya, I.; Siregar, I.

2017-03-01

This research was conducted in the paper production’s company. These Paper products will be used as a cigarette paper. Along in the production’s process, Company provides the machines and equipment that operated by workers. During the operations, all workers may potentially injured. It known as a potential hazard. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of a safety and health program in the stage of risk management. This is very important as part of efforts to prevent occupational injuries and diseases resulting from work. This research is experiencing a problem that is not the identification of potential hazards and risks that would be faced by workers during the running production process. The purpose of this study was to identify the potential hazards by using hazard identification and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using severity criteria and the probability of an accident. According to the research there are 23 potential hazard that occurs with varying severity and probability. Then made the determination Risk Assessment Code (RAC) for each potential hazard, and gained 3 extreme risks, 10 high risks, 6 medium risks and 3 low risks. We have successfully identified potential hazard using RAC.

catsHTM: A Tool for Fast Accessing and Cross-matching Large Astronomical Catalogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soumagnac, Maayane T.; Ofek, Eran O.

2018-07-01

Fast access to large catalogs is required for some astronomical applications. Here we introduce the catsHTM tool, consisting of several large catalogs reformatted into HDF5-based file format, which can be downloaded and used locally. To allow fast access, the catalogs are partitioned into hierarchical triangular meshes and stored in HDF5 files. Several tools are provided to perform efficient cone searches at resolutions spanning from a few arc-seconds to degrees, within a few milliseconds time. The first released version includes the following catalogs (by alphabetical order): 2MASS, 2MASS extended sources, AKARI, APASS, Cosmos, DECaLS/DR5, FIRST, GAIA/DR1, GAIA/DR2, GALEX/DR6Plus7, HSC/v2, IPHAS/DR2, NED redshifts, NVSS, Pan-STARRS1/DR1, PTF photometric catalog, ROSAT faint source, SDSS sources, SDSS/DR14 spectroscopy, SkyMapper, Spitzer/SAGE, Spitzer/IRAC galactic center, UCAC4, UKIDSS/DR10, VST/ATLAS/DR3, VST/KiDS/DR3, WISE and XMM. We provide Python code that allows to perform cone searches, as well as MATLAB code for performing cone searches, catalog cross-matching, general searches, as well as load and create these catalogs.

78 FR 32676 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-31

... flood insurance premium rates for new buildings and the contents of those buildings. For rating purposes...://www.rampp-team.com/ September 23, 2013........ 050084 Springs (13-06- Ruth Carney, 111 Opera lomrs.htm... http://www.rampp-team.com/ July 25, 2013 340343 Hanover (12-02- Ronald F. Engineering lomrs.htm. 1077P...

Use of a Novel Visual Metaphor Measure (PRISM) to Evaluate School Children's Perceptions of Natural Hazards, Sources of Hazard Information, Hazard Mitigation Organizations, and the Effectiveness of Future Hazard Education Programs in Dominica, Eastern Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parham, M.; Day, S. J.; Teeuw, R. M.; Solana, C.; Sensky, T.

2014-12-01

This project aims to study the development of understanding of natural hazards (and of hazard mitigation) from the age of 11 to the age of 15 in secondary school children from 5 geographically and socially different schools on Dominica, through repeated interviews with the students and their teachers. These interviews will be coupled with a structured course of hazard education in the Geography syllabus; the students not taking Geography will form a control group. To avoid distortion of our results arising from the developing verbalization and literacy skills of the students over the 5 years of the project, we have adapted the PRISM tool used in clinical practice to assess patient perceptions of illness and treatment (Buchi & Sensky, 1999). This novel measure is essentially non-verbal, and uses spatial positions of moveable markers ("object" markers) on a board, relative to a fixed marker that represents the subject's "self", as a visual metaphor for the importance of the object to the subject. The subjects also explain their reasons for placing the markers as they have, to provide additional qualitative information. The PRISM method thus produces data on the perceptions measured on the board that can be subjected to statistical analysis, and also succinct qualitative data about each subject. Our study will gather data on participants' perceptions of different natural hazards, different sources of information about these, and organizations or individuals to whom they would go for help in a disaster, and investigate how these vary with geographical and social factors. To illustrate the method, which is generalisable, we present results from our initial interviews of the cohort of 11 year olds whom we will follow through their secondary school education.Büchi, S., & Sensky, T. (1999). PRISM: Pictorial Representation of Illness and Self Measure: a brief nonverbal measure of illness impact and therapeutic aid in psychosomatic medicine. Psychosomatics, 40(4), 314-320.

Use of a Novel Visual Metaphor Measure (PRISM) to Evaluate School Children's Perceptions of Natural Hazards, Sources of Hazard Information, Hazard Mitigation Organizations, and the Effectiveness of Future Hazard Education Programs in Dominica, Eastern Car

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parham, Martin; Day, Simon; Teeuw, Richard; Solana, Carmen; Sensky, Tom

2015-04-01

This project aims to study the development of understanding of natural hazards (and of hazard mitigation) from the age of 11 to the age of 15 in secondary school children from 5 geographically and socially different schools on Dominica, through repeated interviews with the students and their teachers. These interviews will be coupled with a structured course of hazard education in the Geography syllabus; the students not taking Geography will form a control group. To avoid distortion of our results arising from the developing verbalization and literacy skills of the students over the 5 years of the project, we have adapted the PRISM tool used in clinical practice to assess patient perceptions of illness and treatment (Buchi & Sensky, 1999). This novel measure is essentially non-verbal, and uses spatial positions of moveable markers ("object" markers) on a board, relative to a fixed marker that represents the subject's "self", as a visual metaphor for the importance of the object to the subject. The subjects also explain their reasons for placing the markers as they have, to provide additional qualitative information. The PRISM method thus produces data on the perceptions measured on the board that can be subjected to statistical analysis, and also succinct qualitative data about each subject. Our study will gather data on participants' perceptions of different natural hazards, different sources of information about these, and organizations or individuals to whom they would go for help in a disaster, and investigate how these vary with geographical and social factors. To illustrate the method, which is generalisable, we present results from our initial interviews of the cohort of 11 year olds whom we will follow through their secondary school education. Büchi, S., & Sensky, T. (1999). PRISM: Pictorial Representation of Illness and Self Measure: a brief nonverbal measure of illness impact and therapeutic aid in psychosomatic medicine. Psychosomatics, 40(4), 314-320.

On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Economou, T.; Stephenson, D. B.; Rougier, J. C.; Neal, R. A.; Mylne, K. R.

2016-10-01

Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.

On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings.

PubMed

Economou, T; Stephenson, D B; Rougier, J C; Neal, R A; Mylne, K R

2016-10-01

Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.

On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings

PubMed Central

Stephenson, D. B.; Rougier, J. C.; Neal, R. A.; Mylne, K. R.

2016-01-01

Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings. PMID:27843399

Hazard Interactions and Interaction Networks (Cascades) within Multi-Hazard Methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel; Malamud, Bruce D.

2016-04-01

Here we combine research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between 'multi-layer single hazard' approaches and 'multi-hazard' approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. We proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework, through the following steps: (i) describe and define three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment; (ii) outline three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance); and (iii) assess the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case-study examples (based on literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential, and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability between successive hazards, and (iii) prioritise resource allocation for mitigation and disaster risk reduction.

Destructive Interactions Between Mitigation Strategies and the Causes of Unexpected Failures in Natural Hazard Mitigation Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, S. J.; Fearnley, C. J.

2013-12-01

Large investments in the mitigation of natural hazards, using a variety of technology-based mitigation strategies, have proven to be surprisingly ineffective in some recent natural disasters. These failures reveal a need for a systematic classification of mitigation strategies; an understanding of the scientific uncertainties that affect the effectiveness of such strategies; and an understanding of how the different types of strategy within an overall mitigation system interact destructively to reduce the effectiveness of the overall mitigation system. We classify mitigation strategies into permanent, responsive and anticipatory. Permanent mitigation strategies such as flood and tsunami defenses or land use restrictions, are both costly and 'brittle': when they malfunction they can increase mortality. Such strategies critically depend on the accuracy of the estimates of expected hazard intensity in the hazard assessments that underpin their design. Responsive mitigation strategies such as tsunami and lahar warning systems rely on capacities to detect and quantify the hazard source events and to transmit warnings fast enough to enable at risk populations to decide and act effectively. Self-warning and voluntary evacuation is also usually a responsive mitigation strategy. Uncertainty in the nature and magnitude of the detected hazard source event is often the key scientific obstacle to responsive mitigation; public understanding of both the hazard and the warnings, to enable decision making, can also be a critical obstacle. Anticipatory mitigation strategies use interpretation of precursors to hazard source events and are used widely in mitigation of volcanic hazards. Their critical limitations are due to uncertainties in time, space and magnitude relationships between precursors and hazard events. Examples of destructive interaction between different mitigation strategies are provided by the Tohoku 2011 earthquake and tsunami; recent earthquakes that have impacted

2016 one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2016-03-28

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a 1-year seismic hazard forecast for 2016 for the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties in earthquake occurrence and diversity of opinion in the science community. Ground shaking seismic hazard for 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year reaches 0.6 g (as a fraction of standard gravity [g]) in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2 g in the Raton Basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in north-central Texas near Dallas. Near some areas of active induced earthquakes, hazard is higher than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NHSM) by more than a factor of 3; the 2014 NHSM did not consider induced earthquakes. In some areas, previously observed induced earthquakes have stopped, so the seismic hazard reverts back to the 2014 NSHM. Increased seismic activity, whether defined as induced or natural, produces high hazard. Conversion of ground shaking to seismic intensity indicates that some places in Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Arkansas may experience damage if the induced seismicity continues unabated. The chance of having Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) VI or greater (damaging earthquake shaking) is 5–12 percent per year in north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, similar to the chance of damage caused by natural earthquakes

An Integrative Research Framework to Unravel the Interplay of Natural Hazards and Vulnerabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Nohrstedt, Daniel; Mârd, Johanna; Burchardt, Steffi; Albin, Cecilia; Bondesson, Sara; Breinl, Korbinian; Deegan, Frances M.; Fuentes, Diana; Lopez, Marc Girons; Granberg, Mikael; Nyberg, Lars; Nyman, Monika Rydstedt; Rhodes, Emma; Troll, Valentin; Young, Stephanie; Walch, Colin; Parker, Charles F.

2018-03-01

Climate change, globalization, urbanization, social isolation, and increased interconnectedness between physical, human, and technological systems pose major challenges to disaster risk reduction (DRR). Subsequently, economic losses caused by natural hazards are increasing in many regions of the world, despite scientific progress, persistent policy action, and international cooperation. We argue that these dramatic figures call for novel scientific approaches and new types of data collection to integrate the two main approaches that still dominate the science underpinning DRR: the hazard paradigm and the vulnerability paradigm. Building from these two approaches, here we propose a research framework that specifies the scope of enquiry, concepts, and general relations among phenomena. We then discuss the essential steps to advance systematic empirical research and evidence-based DRR policy action.

The hazards of hazard identification in environmental epidemiology.

PubMed

Saracci, Rodolfo

2017-08-09

Hazard identification is a major scientific challenge, notably for environmental epidemiology, and is often surrounded, as the recent case of glyphosate shows, by debate arising in the first place by the inherently problematic nature of many components of the identification process. Particularly relevant in this respect are components less amenable to logical or mathematical formalization and essentially dependent on scientists' judgment. Four such potentially hazardous components that are capable of distorting the correct process of hazard identification are reviewed and discussed from an epidemiologist perspective: (1) lexical mix-up of hazard and risk (2) scientific questions as distinct from testable hypotheses, and implications for the hierarchy of strength of evidence obtainable from different types of study designs (3) assumptions in prior beliefs and model choices and (4) conflicts of interest. Four suggestions are put forward to strengthen a process that remains in several aspects judgmental, but not arbitrary, in nature.

CO2 production by mechanical stress on carbonate rocks and its implications for natural hazards assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Italiano, Francesco; Pizzullo, Sonia; Plescia, Paolo

2010-05-01

The distribution of known CO2 discharges generally coincides with the on-land segments of major linear zones of seismicity throughout the world, showing the strong correlation between natural degassing and earthquakes. On the other hand, aftershocks of large earthquakes have been attributed to the coseismic release of trapped, high-pressure CO2-dominated fluids propagating through damaged zones created by the main shock thus underlining the role of the fluids as "agents" able to generate overpressures and reactivate fault segments inducing earthquakes. Recent experimental results have demonstrated that CO2 can be produced by mechanical stress applied on carbonate rocks sometimes requiring a relatively low energy amount. As a result, crustal volatiles can be produced due to high-pressure, mechanical stresses at moderate levels within the crust. Experiments, whereby different types of carbonate rocks (natural and synthetic) have been milled, have shown that carbonates release CO2 systematically and reproducibly leaving little doubt that carbonate rock located in shallow parts of the crust may undergo structural break-down to form CO2, particularly in the presence of accessory phases such as clays. Such a process allows several natural systems (e.g. active faults in limestones) to become significant CO2 producer when mechanical stress is applied. The possibility of assessing the linkage between variations in geochemical tracers and the onset of seismic activity, is a topical research activity of meaningful societal relevance and contributes to understand some processes related to the seismogenesis, thus to the largest natural hazard for the humankind. As such, monitoring CO2 over seismic-prone areas located in carbonate rocks, may provide a better insight of the development of the seismogenic process and useful tools in understanding the response of volatiles to crustal perturbations. Moreover, since crustal deformation can also occur aseismically, and rock

78 FR 20331 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-04

... flood insurance premium rates for new buildings and the contents of those buildings. For rating purposes............ 350070 (12-06-1488P). David Coss, Avenue, Santa Fe, team.com/lomrs.htm. Mayor, City of NM 87501. Santa Fe... Design http://www.rampp- May 28, 2013......... 405381 06-1019P). Dewey F. Office, 2317 team.com/lomrs.htm...

TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X data for natural hazards research in mountainous regions of Uzbekistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semakova, Eleonora; Bühler, Yves

2017-07-01

Accurate and up-to-date digital elevation models (DEMs) are important tools for studying mountain hazards. We considered natural hazards related to glacier retreat, debris flows, and snow avalanches in two study areas of the Western Tien-Shan mountains, Uzbekistan. High-resolution DEMs were generated using single TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X datasets. The high quality and actuality of the DEMs were proved through a comparison with Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, Advanced Spaceborne Emission and Reflection Radiometer, and Topo DEMs, using Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite data as the reference dataset. For the first study area, which had high levels of economic activity, we applied the generated TanDEM-X DEM to an avalanche dynamics simulation using RAMMS software. Verification of the output results showed good agreement with field observations. For the second study area, with a wide spatial distribution of glaciers, we applied the TanDEM-X DEM to an assessment of glacier surface elevation changes. The results can be used to calculate the local mass balance in glacier ablation zones in other areas. Models were applied to estimate the probability of moraine-dammed lake formation and the affected area of a possible debris flow resulting from glacial lake outburst. The natural hazard research methods considered here will minimize costly ground observations in poorly accessible mountains and mitigate the impacts of hazards on the environment of Uzbekistan.

Defining and Measuring Coastal Vulnerability and Resilience to Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M. K.; Hoagland, P.

2014-12-01

Accounting for an estimated 23 percent of the world's population, coastal communities face many types of natural hazards. In particular, they may be vulnerable to the effects of tropical cyclones, flooding due to tsunamis or storm surges, erosion, saltwater intrusion, and subsidence. These coastal hazards are further exacerbated by population growth and climate change. There is a lack of consensus in the literature about what constitutes vulnerability (negative impacts) and resilience (recovery from negative impacts) and how to measure these phenomena. While some important work has focused on the long-term effects of coastal hazards on economic growth, little has been done to understand, in quantitative terms, the extent to which coastal communities may be vulnerable to such hazards and, if so, whether they can be resilient. We surveyed nine indicators of human well-being in order to determine their potential suitability as measures of coastal vulnerability or resilience. Some measures, such as the Gross Domestic Product, the Human Development Index, and the Gini coefficient, comprise economic or distributional indicators of human welfare; others, such as the Social Vulnerability Index, are more complex and difficult to interpret. We selected per capita personal income as the most viable indicator, due largely to its simplicity and its availability over several decades. We used it to examine human community vulnerability and resilience to a specific coastal hazard—significant storm surges from major coastal hurricanes—in several US coastal metropolitan areas. We compiled data on per capita personal income from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis for 15 to 20 years prior and subsequent to four major hurricanes: Hugo, which hit the Charleston, South Carolina, metropolitan area in 1989; Bob, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, in 1991; Andrew, Miami, Florida, in 1992; and Opal, Pensacola, Florida, in 1995. Intervention analysis using linear regression suggests that these

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China

PubMed Central

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-01-01

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales. PMID:26901210

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China.

PubMed

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-02-17

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales.

Earth sciences, GIS and geomatics for natural hazards assessment and risks mitigation: a civil protection perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perotti, Luigi; Conte, Riccardo; Lanfranco, Massimo; Perrone, Gianluigi; Giardino, Marco; Ratto, Sara

2010-05-01

Geo-information and remote sensing are proper tools to enhance functional strategies for increasing awareness on natural hazards and risks and for supporting research and operational activities devoted to disaster reduction. An improved Earth Sciences knowledge coupled with Geomatics advanced technologies has been developed by the joint research group and applied by the ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action) centre, within its partnership with the UN World Food Programme (WFP) with the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards and related disasters. By cooperating with local and regional authorities (Municipalities, Centro Funzionale of the Aosta Valley, Civil Protection Agency of Regione Piemonte), data on natural hazards and risks have been collected, compared to national and global data, then interpreted for helping communities and civil protection agencies of sensitive mountain regions to make strategic choices and decisions to better mitigation and adaption measures. To enhance the application of GIS and Remote-sensing technologies for geothematic mapping of geological and geomorphological risks of mountain territories of Europe and Developing Countries, research activities led to the collection and evaluation of data from scientific literature and historical technical archives, for the definition of predisposing/triggering factors and evolutionary processes of natural instability phenomena (landslides, floods, storms, …) and for the design and implementation of early-warning and early-impact systems. Geodatabases, Remote Sensing and Mobile-GIS applications were developed to perform analysis of : 1) large climate-related disaster (Hurricane Mitch, Central America), by the application of remote sensing techniques, either for early warning or mitigation measures at the national and international scale; 2) distribution of slope instabilities at the regional scale (Aosta

Natural hazards in the Alps triggered by ski slope engineering and artificial snow production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, C.

2012-04-01

, vegetation-poor scree slopes in summertime. Secondly, the production of artificial snow requires increasingly large quantities of water during low flow periods and causes an exponential increase in the construction of water reservoirs and pipelines. Such reservoirs are often constructed in depressions occupied by wetlands but also on slopes, hilltops and in proglacial locations at high altitudes up to 3000m. Reservoir construction removes vegetation, soil and regolith over surface areas of up to 150 000 m2 and depths of more than 20 m. During their construction, the temporary or permanent storage of large quantities of sediment on steep slopes has lead in several cases to the production of debris flows. Each reservoir requires road construction and vehicle parking areas for heavy weight vehicle access. These are frequently subject to erosion, gullying, and small landslides. Some reservoirs are vulnerable to catastrophic drainage triggered by earthquakes, avalanches and other natural hazards typical for mountain environments since they are only sealed with plastic membranes. Thirdly, the melt of artificial snow introduced by water transfers from other catchments can cause a relatively large local surplus of water which in turn increases spring and summer flood peaks as well as sediment transport. Most steep ski runs have introduced artificial drainage canals across the ski runs to avoid concentration of surface flow and to prevent erosion. Slopes are also covered with organic soils and re-vegetated where possible. However, given the present trends of intensification of use and precipitation extremes, it is unlikely that erosion and mass movements can be prevented in the next few decades for the duration of the amortization of investments.

49 CFR 392.14 - Hazardous conditions; extreme caution.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... CARRIER SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION FEDERAL MOTOR CARRIER SAFETY REGULATIONS DRIVING OF COMMERCIAL MOTOR VEHICLES Driving of Commercial Motor Vehicles § 392.14 Hazardous conditions... nearest point at which the safety of passengers is assured. [33 FR 19732, Dec. 25, 1968, as amended at 60...

How Can the Science Community Support Reality Based Policies to Reducing the Escalating Toll of Natural Hazards?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, E. A.

2012-12-01

Worldwide, the toll of disaster damage caused by foreseeable natural hazards is growing, despite the fact that science is increasingly able to quantify the risk and foresee the likely location of natural events (NCDC 2012; NHC 2010). Those events can cause disastrous consequences if human built infrastructure is not properly designed for both the current state and future events (IBHS, 2012). Our existing approaches are not working at reducing the mounting toll of disasters which follow foreseeable natural events. Rather, even if the climate were not changing, current land use decisions coupled with development, engineering, design, and construction practices are significantly contributing to further increasing an unsustainable toll from disasters (Pielke, Gratz et al. 2007). Safe and proper construction practices developed to reduce flood losses (e.g. Design for Flooding, Watson, Adams et al., 2010) are all too often thought of as a zero sum situation where the community wins and the developer loses. In reality, the United States and the rest of the world often can find win-win solutions based on sound economics, law, ethics, and environmental sustainability that will benefit communities, developers, and natural hazard risk mitigation practitioners. While such solutions are being implemented in a fragmentary manner throughout the United States, communities implementing these solutions are increasingly working together in peer networks, such as the Natural Hazard Mitigation Association (NHMA)'s Resilient Neighbors Network. Examples include the Urban Drainage and Flood Control District that covers the metropolitan Denver area and recent work in Tulsa, Oklahoma. This presentation will set forth the scientific, ethical, and legal basis of higher development standards which, when combined with good negotiations techniques, can significantly decrease the terrible misery from wildfires, tornadoes, floods, and other natural disasters. Communities clearly have the legal

Walkthrough screening evaluation field guide. Natural phenomena hazards at Department of Energy facilities: Revision 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eder, S.J.; Eli, M.W.; Salmon, M.W.

1993-11-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has a large inventory of existing facilities. Many of these facilities were not designed and constructed to current natural phenomena hazard (NPH) criteria. The NPH events include earthquakes, extreme winds and tornadoes, and floods. DOE Order 5480.28 establishes policy and requirements for NPH mitigation for DOE facilities. DOE is conducting a multiyear project to develop evaluation guidelines for assessing the condition and determining the need for upgrades at DOE facilities. One element of the NPH evaluation guidelines` development involves the existing systems and components at DOE facilities. This effort is described in detail inmore » a cited reference. In the interim period prior to availability of the final guidelines, DOE facilities are encouraged to implement an NPH walk through screening evaluation process by which systems and components that need attention can be rapidly identified. Guidelines for conducting the walk through screening evaluations are contained herein. The result of the NPH walk through screening evaluation should be a prioritized list of systems and components that need further action. Simple and inexpensive fixes for items identified in the walk through as marginal or inadequate should be implemented without further study. By implementing an NPH walk through screening evaluation, DOE facilities may realize significant reduction in risk from NPH in the short term.« less

Use of cloud computing technology in natural hazard assessment and emergency management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webley, P. W.; Dehn, J.

2015-12-01

During a natural hazard event, the most up-to-date data needs to be in the hands of those on the front line. Decision support system tools can be developed to provide access to pre-made outputs to quickly assess the hazard and potential risk. However, with the ever growing availability of new satellite data as well as ground and airborne data generated in real-time there is a need to analyze the large volumes of data in an easy-to-access and effective environment. With the growth in the use of cloud computing, where the analysis and visualization system can grow with the needs of the user, then these facilities can used to provide this real-time analysis. Think of a central command center uploading the data to the cloud compute system and then those researchers in-the-field connecting to a web-based tool to view the newly acquired data. New data can be added by any user and then viewed instantly by anyone else in the organization through the cloud computing interface. This provides the ideal tool for collaborative data analysis, hazard assessment and decision making. We present the rationale for developing a cloud computing systems and illustrate how this tool can be developed for use in real-time environments. Users would have access to an interactive online image analysis tool without the need for specific remote sensing software on their local system therefore increasing their understanding of the ongoing hazard and mitigate its impact on the surrounding region.

Investigating extreme event loading on coastal bridges using wireless sensor technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelineau, Douglas A.; Davis, Justin R.; Rice, Jennifer A.

2017-04-01

Coastal infrastructure, such as bridges, are susceptible to many forms of coastal hazards: particularly hurricane surge and wave loading. These two forms of loading can cause catastrophic damage to aging highway infrastructure. It is estimated that storm damage costs the United States about $50 Billion per year. In light of this, it is crucial that we understand the damaging forces placed on infrastructure during storm events so that we can develop safer and more resilient coastal structures. This paper presents the ongoing research to enable the efficient collection of extreme event loads acting on both the substructure and superstructure of low clearance, simple span, reinforced concrete bridges. Bridges of this type were commonly constructed during the 1950's and 60's and are particularly susceptible to deck unseating caused by hurricane surge and wave loading. The sensing technology used to capture this data must be ruggedized to survive in an extremely challenging environment, be designed to allow for redundancy in the event of sensors or other network components being lost in the storm, and be relatively low cost to allow for more bridges to be instrumented per storm event. The prototype system described in this paper includes wireless technology, rapid data transmission, and, for the sensors, self-contained power. While this specific application focuses on hurricane hazards, the framework can be extended to include other natural hazards.

Dealing with the Asteroid Impact Hazard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, David

2001-01-01

Earth-impact trajectory. As the most extreme known example of a natural hazard with low probability but severe global consequences. the NEA impact hazard calls for the most careful consideration and planning.

Study Of The Risks Arising From Natural Disasters And Hazards On Urban And Intercity Motorways By Using Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DELİCE, Yavuz

2015-04-01

Highways, Located in the city and intercity locations are generally prone to many kind of natural disaster risks. Natural hazards and disasters that may occur firstly from highway project making to construction and operation stages and later during the implementation of highway maintenance and repair stages have to be taken into consideration. And assessment of risks that may occur against adverse situations is very important in terms of project design, construction, operation maintenance and repair costs. Making hazard and natural disaster risk analysis is largely depending on the definition of the likelihood of the probable hazards on the highways. However, assets at risk , and the impacts of the events must be examined and to be rated in their own. With the realization of these activities, intended improvements against natural hazards and disasters will be made with the utilization of Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) method and their effects will be analyzed with further works. FMEA, is a useful method to identify the failure mode and effects depending on the type of failure rate effects priorities and finding the most optimum economic and effective solution. Although relevant measures being taken for the identified risks by this analysis method , it may also provide some information for some public institutions about the nature of these risks when required. Thus, the necessary measures will have been taken in advance in the city and intercity highways. Many hazards and natural disasters are taken into account in risk assessments. The most important of these dangers can be listed as follows; • Natural disasters 1. Meteorological based natural disasters (floods, severe storms, tropical storms, winter storms, avalanches, etc.). 2. Geological based natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, subsidence, sinkholes, etc) • Human originated disasters 1. Transport accidents (traffic accidents), originating from the road surface defects (icing

Social transformation in transdisciplinary natural hazard management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attems, Marie-Sophie; Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas

2017-04-01

Due to annual increases of natural hazard losses, there is a discussion among authorities and communities in Europe on innovative solutions to increase resilience, and consequently, business-as-usual in risk management practices is often questioned. Therefore, the current situation of risk management requests a societal transformation to response adequately and effectively to the new global dynamics. An emerging concept is the implementation of multiple-use mitigation systems against hazards such as floods, avalanches and land-slides. However, one key aspect refers to the involvement of knowledge outside academic research. Therefore, transdisciplinary knowledge can be used to discuss vital factors which are needed to upscale the implementation of multiple-use mitigation measures. The method used in this contribution is an explorative scenario analysis applied in Austria and processes the knowledge gained in transdisciplinary workshops. The scenario analysis combines qualitative data and the quantitative relations in order to generate a set of plausible future outcomes. The goal is to establish a small amount of consistent scenarios, which are efficient and thereby representative as well as significantly different from each other. The results of the discussions among relevant stakeholders within the workshops and a subsequent quantitative analysis, showed that vital variables influencing the multiple use of mitigation measures are the (1) current legislation, (2) risk acceptance among authorities and the public, (3) land-use pressure, (4) the demand for innovative solutions, (5) the available technical standards and possibilities and (6) finally the policy entrepreneurship. Four different scenarios were the final result of the analysis. Concluding the results, in order to make multiple-use alleviations systems possible contemporary settings concerning risk management strategies will have to change in the future. Legislation and thereby current barriers have to be

Review article: the use of remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPASs) for natural hazards monitoring and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giordan, Daniele; Hayakawa, Yuichi; Nex, Francesco; Remondino, Fabio; Tarolli, Paolo

2018-04-01

The number of scientific studies that consider possible applications of remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPASs) for the management of natural hazards effects and the identification of occurred damages strongly increased in the last decade. Nowadays, in the scientific community, the use of these systems is not a novelty, but a deeper analysis of the literature shows a lack of codified complex methodologies that can be used not only for scientific experiments but also for normal codified emergency operations. RPASs can acquire on-demand ultra-high-resolution images that can be used for the identification of active processes such as landslides or volcanic activities but can also define the effects of earthquakes, wildfires and floods. In this paper, we present a review of published literature that describes experimental methodologies developed for the study and monitoring of natural hazards.

Natural hazard impacts on transport systems: analyzing the data base of transport accidents in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrova, Elena

2015-04-01

We consider a transport accident as any accident that occurs during transportation of people and goods. It comprises of accidents involving air, road, rail, water, and pipeline transport. With over 1.2 million people killed each year, road accidents are one of the world's leading causes of death; another 20-50 million people are injured each year on the world's roads while walking, cycling, or driving. Transport accidents of other types including air, rail, and water transport accidents are not as numerous as road crashes, but the relative risk of each accident is much higher because of the higher number of people killed and injured per accident. Pipeline ruptures cause large damages to the environment. That is why safety and security are of primary concern for any transport system. The transport system of the Russian Federation (RF) is one of the most extensive in the world. It includes 1,283,000 km of public roads, more than 600,000 km of airlines, more than 200,000 km of gas, oil, and product pipelines, 115,000 km of inland waterways, and 87,000 km of railways. The transport system, especially the transport infrastructure of the country is exposed to impacts of various natural hazards and weather extremes such as heavy rains, snowfalls, snowdrifts, floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, snow avalanches, debris flows, rock falls, fog or icing roads, and other natural factors that additionally trigger many accidents. In June 2014, the Ministry of Transport of the RF has compiled a new version of the Transport Strategy of the RF up to 2030. Among of the key pillars of the Strategy are to increase the safety of the transport system and to reduce negative environmental impacts. Using the data base of technological accidents that was created by the author, the study investigates temporal variations and regional differences of the transport accidents' risk within the Russian federal regions and a contribution of natural factors to occurrences of different

Natural Hazards characterisation in industrial practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardara, Pietro

2017-04-01

The definition of rare hydroclimatic extremes (up to 10-4 annual probability of occurrence) is of the utmost importance for the design of high value industrial infrastructures, such as grids, power plants, offshore platforms. The underestimation as well as the overestimation of the risk may lead to huge costs (ex. mid-life expensive works or overdesign) which may even prevent the project to happen. Nevertheless, the uncertainty associated to the extrapolation towards the rare frequencies are huge and manifold. They are mainly due to the scarcity of observations, the lack of quality on the extreme value records and on the arbitrary choice of the models used for extrapolations. This often put the design engineers in uncomfortable situations when they must choose the design values to use. Providentially, the recent progresses in the earth observation techniques, information technology, historical data collection and weather and ocean modelling are making huge datasets available. A careful use of big datasets of observations and modelled data are leading towards a better understanding of the physics of the underlying phenomena, the complex interactions between them and thus of the extreme events frequency extrapolations. This will move the engineering practice from the single site, small sample, application of statistical analysis to a more spatially coherent, physically driven extrapolation of extreme values. Few examples, from the EDF industrial practice are given to illustrate these progresses and their potential impact on the design approaches.

Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards

PubMed Central

Cutter, Susan L.; Finch, Christina

2008-01-01

During the past four decades (1960–2000), the United States experienced major transformations in population size, development patterns, economic conditions, and social characteristics. These social, economic, and built-environment changes altered the American hazardscape in profound ways, with more people living in high-hazard areas than ever before. To improve emergency management, it is important to recognize the variability in the vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and to develop place-based emergency plans accordingly. The concept of social vulnerability identifies sensitive populations that may be less likely to respond to, cope with, and recover from a natural disaster. Social vulnerability is complex and dynamic, changing over space and through time. This paper presents empirical evidence on the spatial and temporal patterns in social vulnerability in the United States from 1960 to the present. Using counties as our study unit, we found that those components that consistently increased social vulnerability for all time periods were density (urban), race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. The spatial patterning of social vulnerability, although initially concentrated in certain geographic regions, has become more dispersed over time. The national trend shows a steady reduction in social vulnerability, but there is considerable regional variability, with many counties increasing in social vulnerability during the past five decades. PMID:18268336

The California Hazards Institute

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rundle, J. B.; Kellogg, L. H.; Turcotte, D. L.

2006-12-01

California's abundant resources are linked with its natural hazards. Earthquakes, landslides, wildfires, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, severe storms, fires, and droughts afflict the state regularly. These events have the potential to become great disasters, like the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906, that overwhelm the capacity of society to respond. At such times, the fabric of civic life is frayed, political leadership is tested, economic losses can dwarf available resources, and full recovery can take decades. A patchwork of Federal, state and local programs are in place to address individual hazards, but California lacks effective coordination to forecast, prevent, prepare for, mitigate, respond to, and recover from, the harmful effects of natural disasters. Moreover, we do not know enough about the frequency, size, time, or locations where they may strike, nor about how the natural environment and man-made structures would respond. As California's population grows and becomes more interdependent, even moderate events have the potential to trigger catastrophes. Natural hazards need not become natural disasters if they are addressed proactively and effectively, rather than reactively. The University of California, with 10 campuses distributed across the state, has world-class faculty and students engaged in research and education in all fields of direct relevance to hazards. For that reason, the UC can become a world leader in anticipating and managing natural hazards in order to prevent loss of life and property and degradation of environmental quality. The University of California, Office of the President, has therefore established a new system-wide Multicampus Research Project, the California Hazards Institute (CHI), as a mechanism to research innovative, effective solutions for California. The CHI will build on the rich intellectual capital and expertise of the Golden State to provide the best available science, knowledge and tools for

Tourism hazard potentials in Mount Merapi: how to deal with the risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muthiah, J.; Muntasib, E. K. S. H.; Meilani, R.

2018-05-01

Mount Merapi as one of the most popular natural tourism destination in Indonesia, indicated as disaster prone area. Hazard management is required to ensure visitors safety. Hazard identification and mapping are prerequisite in developing proper hazard management recommendation. This study aimed to map hazard potentials’ geographical positions obtained with geographical positioning system and to identify the hazard management being implemented. Data collection was carried out in Mei – June 2017 through observation and interview. Hiking trail and Lava tour area was selected as the study site, since the sites are the main areas for tourism activities in Mount Merapi. The type of hazards found in the area included lava, tephra, eruption cloud, ash, earthquake, land slide, extreme weather, slope and loose rock. Early warning system had been developed in this area, however the mechanism to regulate tourism activities still had to be improved. Local tourism entrepreneurs should be involved in the network of early warning system stakeholders to ensure tourist safety, and their capacity should be improved in order to be able to perform the measures needed for handling accident and disaster occurrences. Interpretive media explaining hazard potentials may be used to improve visitors’ awareness and ability to cope with the risk.

Landslide Hazard in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaprindashvili, G.; Tsereteli, E.; Gaprindashvili, M.

2013-12-01

In the last decades of the XX century, protect the population from geological hazards, to maintain land and safe operation of the engineering facilities has become the most important social - economic, demographic, political and environmental problems for the whole world. Georgia, with its scales of origination of the natural-catastrophic processes (landslide, mudflow, rockfall, erosion and etc.), their re-occurrence and with the negative results inflicted by these processes to the population, agricultural lands and engineering objects, is one of the most complex mountainous region. The extremely sensitive conditions were conditioned by: 1. Activation of highly intense earthquakes; 2. Activation of the negative meteorological events provoking the disaster processes on the background of global climatic changes and their abnormally frequent occurrence (mostly increased atmospheric precipitations, temperature and humidity); 3. Large-scale Human impact on the environment. Following the problem urgency, a number of departmental and research institutions have made their operations more intense in the given direction within the limits of their competence. First of all, the activity of the Department of Geology of Georgia (which is at present included in the National Environmental Agency of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection), which mapped, identified and cataloged the hazardous processes on the territory of the country and identified the spatial limits and developmental regularities of these processes for tens of years. The increased risk of Geological catastrophes in Georgia first of all is caused by insufficient information between society and responsible persons toward this event. The existed situation needs the base assessment of natural disasters level, the identification of events, to determine their caused reasons, to develop special maps in GIS system, and continuous functioning of geo monitoring researches for develop safety early

Landslide Hazard in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaprindashvili, George; Tsereteli, Emil; Gaprindashvili, Merab

2014-05-01

In the last decades of the XX century, protect the population from geological hazards, to maintain land and safe operation of the engineering facilities has become the most important social - economic, demographic, political and environmental problems for the whole world. Georgia, with its scales of origination of the natural-catastrophic processes (landslide, mudflow, rockfall, erosion and etc.), their re-occurrence and with the negative results inflicted by these processes to the population, agricultural lands and engineering objects, is one of the most complex mountainous region. The extremely sensitive conditions were conditioned by: 1. Activation of highly intense earthquakes; 2. Activation of the negative meteorological events provoking the disaster processes on the background of global climatic changes and their abnormally frequent occurrence (mostly increased atmospheric precipitations, temperature and humidity); 3. Large-scale Human impact on the environment. Following the problem urgency, a number of departmental and research institutions have made their operations more intense in the given direction within the limits of their competence. First of all, the activity of the Department of Geology of Georgia (which is at present included in the National Environmental Agency of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Protection), which mapped, identified and cataloged the hazardous processes on the territory of the country and identified the spatial limits and developmental regularities of these processes for tens of years. The increased risk of Geological catastrophes in Georgia first of all is caused by insufficient information between society and responsible persons toward this event. The existed situation needs the base assessment of natural disasters level, the identification of events, to determine their caused reasons, to develop special maps in GIS system, and continuous functioning of geo monitoring researches for develop safety early

Potassium-chemical synthesis of 3D graphene from CO 2 and its excellent performance in HTM-free perovskite solar cells

DOE PAGES

Wei, Wei; Hu, Baoyun; Jin, Fangming; ...

2017-03-29

The conversion of greenhouse gas CO 2 into novel materials is the most promising approach to solve greenhouse gas issues. In this paper, we report for the first time the reaction of potassium with CO 2 to synthesize three-dimensional honeycomb-like structured graphene (3DHG). Furthermore, 3DHG exhibited excellent performance as a counter electrode for hole transport material (HTM)-free perovskite solar cells, leading to a power conversion efficiency of 10.06%. Finally, this work constitutes a new aspect of potassium chemistry for material synthesis from a greenhouse gas and the generation of electrical energy from sunlight.

Regional Frequency Analysis of Ocean Hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardara, Pietro; Weiss, Jerome; Benoit, Michel; Andreewsky, Marc

2015-04-01

The estimation of the extreme return level (up to 10-4 annual probability of exceedence) of natural phenomena is a very uncertain exercise, when extrapolating using the information and the measure collected in a single site. The aim of the Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) is to benefit from the information contained in observations and data collected not only on the site of interested but in a larger set of sites, located in the same region of the site of interest or sharing with it similar characteristics. This technique was introduced in the '60 and widely used in various domains including hydrology and meteorology. The RFA was recently acknowledge as a potential choice for the estimation of flooding hazard in the Methodological Guide for flooding hazard estimation [1], published in 2013 by the French Nuclear Safety Autority. The aim of this presentation is to bring in the main concepts of the RFA and illustrate the latest innovation on its application, delivered by EDF R&D. They concerns the statistical definition of storms, the formation of homogeneous regions and a new approach for filtering the redundant information linked to the spatial correlation of natural phenomena. Application to skew surges and waves will be shown 1. ASN, Guide pour la Protection des installations nucléaires de base contre les inondations externes. 2013, ASN. p. 44.

The Nature and Characteristics of Youthful Extremism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zubok, Iu. A.; Chuprov, V. I.

2010-01-01

Extremism is an acute problem of the present day. Moods of extremism are manifested in all spheres of the life and activities of young people--in education, work, business, political life, and leisure activity. They can be found in both individual and group social self-determination and are influenced by the immediate social environment as well as…

Stakeholder perspectives on land-use strategies for adapting to climate-change-enhanced coastal hazards: Sarasota, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent

2010-01-01