Science.gov

Sample records for extreme response estimation

  1. Moment-Based Probability Modeling and Extreme Response Estimation, The FITS Routine Version 1.2

    SciTech Connect

    MANUEL,LANCE; KASHEF,TINA; WINTERSTEIN,STEVEN R.

    1999-11-01

    This report documents the use of the FITS routine, which provides automated fits of various analytical, commonly used probability models from input data. It is intended to complement the previously distributed FITTING routine documented in RMS Report 14 (Winterstein et al., 1994), which implements relatively complex four-moment distribution models whose parameters are fit with numerical optimization routines. Although these four-moment fits can be quite useful and faithful to the observed data, their complexity can make them difficult to automate within standard fitting algorithms. In contrast, FITS provides more robust (lower moment) fits of simpler, more conventional distribution forms. For each database of interest, the routine estimates the distribution of annual maximum response based on the data values and the duration, T, over which they were recorded. To focus on the upper tails of interest, the user can also supply an arbitrary lower-bound threshold, {chi}{sub low}, above which a shifted distribution model--exponential or Weibull--is fit.

  2. Extreme wind turbine response during operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sørensen, John D.; Nielsen, Søren R. K.

    2007-07-01

    Estimation of extreme response values is very important for structural design of wind turbines. Due to the influence of control system and nonlinear structural behavior the extreme response is usually assessed based on simulation of turbulence time series. In this paper the problem of statistical load extrapolation is considered using techniques from structural reliability theory. Different simulation techniques to estimate extreme response characteristics are described and compared, including crude Monte Carlo simulation, Importance Sampling, and splitting methods such as the Russian Roulette and the Double and Clump algorithm. A statistically consistent technique is described for including statistical uncertainty and assessing the extreme 50-year response using simulated time series and conditioned on the model parameters. The peak over threshold method together with the Maximum Likelihood Method provides a tool to obtain consistent estimates incl. the statistical uncertainty. An illustrative example indicates that the statistical uncertainty is important compared to the coefficient of variation of the extreme response when the number of 10 minutes simulations at each mean wind speed is limited to 10.

  3. Extremes of Population Estimated from Kepler Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Traub, Wesley A.

    2015-12-01

    The extremes of exoplanet population (0.5 to 16 Earth radii, 0.5 to 512 days period) are estimated from Kepler observations by comparing the observed numbers of planets at each radius and period against a simulation that accounts for the probability of transit and the estimated instrument sensitivity. By assuming that the population can be modeled as a function of period times a function of radius, and further assuming that these functions are broken power laws, sufficient leverage is gained such that the well-measured short-period extreme of the planet distribution can effectively be used as a template for the less-well sampled long-period extreme. The resulting population distribution over this full range of radius and period provides a challenge to models of the origin and evolution of planetary systems.

  4. Estimating the Response and Uncertainty Limits of Physical Processes in the South San Francisco Bay for Extreme Water Elevation Frequency Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andes, L.; Wu, F.; Lo, J.; MacWilliams, M.; Lu, C.; Dean, R.; Hanes, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    Coastal flooding in the far south San Francisco Bay (SSFB) can be a function of astronomical tide, residual tide (i.e. water elevation deviation from computed astronomical tide that is associated with many possible physical processes), in-bay wind speed and direction and fluvial discharge. These physical processes and coastal levee failure were considered as input parameters into a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to estimate extreme water elevation frequency in the SSFB. Limited data is available in the SSFB to estimate the contribution of these physical processes to extreme water elevation statistics. Over 100 years of measured water surface elevation (WSE) data is available at the San Francisco (SF) tide station. A sensitivity analysis of storm event sampling criteria was conducted to select significant events at the SF tide station for data transfer to the project site and statistical analysis. The coincidently sampled astronomical and residual tides at the San Francisco tide station were analyzed and used to develop the storm event databases. Sampling methods employed were compared with annual maximum and partial duration approaches. Additional statistical testing was performed to justify the assumption of coincident sampling. The selected database was found to be most representative of the full range of the combinations of astronomical and residual tides that contribute to extreme water elevation statistics at the project site. A look-up table of astronomical and residual tide, wind speed and direction, and levee failure in the form of WSE responses at the project site from the hydrodynamic simulations was established for the interpolation in the MCS. The hydrodynamic model simulations indicated that the astronomical tides in the SSFB amplify inversely as a function of tidal range at the SF tide station. The residual tide varies minimally as it propagates into the SSFB. In-Bay wind set-up from a significant event was found to contribute on the order of one foot

  5. Extreme Earthquake Risk Estimation by Hybrid Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavez, M.; Cabrera, E.; Ashworth, M.; Garcia, S.; Emerson, D.; Perea, N.; Salazar, A.; Moulinec, C.

    2012-12-01

    The estimation of the hazard and the economical consequences i.e. the risk associated to the occurrence of extreme magnitude earthquakes in the neighborhood of urban or lifeline infrastructure, such as the 11 March 2011 Mw 9, Tohoku, Japan, represents a complex challenge as it involves the propagation of seismic waves in large volumes of the earth crust, from unusually large seismic source ruptures up to the infrastructure location. The large number of casualties and huge economic losses observed for those earthquakes, some of which have a frequency of occurrence of hundreds or thousands of years, calls for the development of new paradigms and methodologies in order to generate better estimates, both of the seismic hazard, as well as of its consequences, and if possible, to estimate the probability distributions of their ground intensities and of their economical impacts (direct and indirect losses), this in order to implement technological and economical policies to mitigate and reduce, as much as possible, the mentioned consequences. Herewith, we propose a hybrid modeling which uses 3D seismic wave propagation (3DWP) and neural network (NN) modeling in order to estimate the seismic risk of extreme earthquakes. The 3DWP modeling is achieved by using a 3D finite difference code run in the ~100 thousands cores Blue Gene Q supercomputer of the STFC Daresbury Laboratory of UK, combined with empirical Green function (EGF) techniques and NN algorithms. In particular the 3DWP is used to generate broadband samples of the 3D wave propagation of extreme earthquakes (plausible) scenarios corresponding to synthetic seismic sources and to enlarge those samples by using feed-forward NN. We present the results of the validation of the proposed hybrid modeling for Mw 8 subduction events, and show examples of its application for the estimation of the hazard and the economical consequences, for extreme Mw 8.5 subduction earthquake scenarios with seismic sources in the Mexican

  6. Generalized IRT Models for Extreme Response Style

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jin, Kuan-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung

    2014-01-01

    Extreme response style (ERS) is a systematic tendency for a person to endorse extreme options (e.g., strongly disagree, strongly agree) on Likert-type or rating-scale items. In this study, we develop a new class of item response theory (IRT) models to account for ERS so that the target latent trait is free from the response style and the tendency…

  7. A Test-Length Correction to the Estimation of Extreme Proficiency Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Magis, David; Beland, Sebastien; Raiche, Gilles

    2011-01-01

    In this study, the estimation of extremely large or extremely small proficiency levels, given the item parameters of a logistic item response model, is investigated. On one hand, the estimation of proficiency levels by maximum likelihood (ML), despite being asymptotically unbiased, may yield infinite estimates. On the other hand, with an…

  8. Estimates of peak flood discharge for 21 sites in the Front Range in Colorado in response to extreme rainfall in September 2013

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moody, John A.

    2016-03-21

    Extreme rainfall in September 2013 caused destructive floods in part of the Front Range in Boulder County, Colorado. Erosion from these floods cut roads and isolated mountain communities for several weeks, and large volumes of eroded sediment were deposited downstream, which caused further damage of property and infrastructures. Estimates of peak discharge for these floods and the associated rainfall characteristics will aid land and emergency managers in the future. Several methods (an ensemble) were used to estimate peak discharge at 21 measurement sites, and the ensemble average and standard deviation provided a final estimate of peak discharge and its uncertainty. Because of the substantial erosion and deposition of sediment, an additional estimate of peak discharge was made based on the flow resistance caused by sediment transport effects.Although the synoptic-scale rainfall was extreme (annual exceedance probability greater than 1,000 years, about 450 millimeters in 7 days) for these mountains, the resulting peak discharges were not. Ensemble average peak discharges per unit drainage area (unit peak discharge, [Qu]) for the floods were 1–2 orders of magnitude less than those for the maximum worldwide floods with similar drainage areas and had a wide range of values (0.21–16.2 cubic meters per second per square kilometer [m3 s-1 km-2]). One possible explanation for these differences was that the band of high-accumulation, high-intensity rainfall was narrow (about 50 kilometers wide), oriented nearly perpendicular to the predominant drainage pattern of the mountains, and therefore entire drainage areas were not subjected to the same range of extreme rainfall. A linear relation (coefficient of determination [R2]=0.69) between Qu and the rainfall intensity (ITc, computed for a time interval equal to the time-of-concentration for the drainage area upstream from each site), had the form: Qu=0.26(ITc-8.6), where the coefficient 0.26 can be considered to be an

  9. Materials Response under extreme conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Remington, B A; Lorenz, K T; Pollaine, S; McNaney, J M

    2005-10-06

    Solid state experiments at extreme pressures, 10-100 GPa (0.1-1 Mbar) and strain rates (10{sup 6}-10{sup 8} s{sup -1}) are being developed on high-energy laser facilities. The goal is an experimental capability to test constitutive models for high-pressure, solid-state strength for a variety of materials. Relevant constitutive models are discussed, and our progress in developing a quasi-isentropic, ramped-pressure, shockless drive is given. Designs to test the constitutive models with experiments measuring perturbation growth due to the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in solid-state samples are presented.

  10. Simulation and Estimation of Extreme Quantiles and Extreme Probabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Guyader, Arnaud; Hengartner, Nicolas; Matzner-Lober, Eric

    2011-10-15

    Let X be a random vector with distribution {mu} on Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d} and {Phi} be a mapping from Double-Struck-Capital-R {sup d} to Double-Struck-Capital-R . That mapping acts as a black box, e.g., the result from some computer experiments for which no analytical expression is available. This paper presents an efficient algorithm to estimate a tail probability given a quantile or a quantile given a tail probability. The algorithm improves upon existing multilevel splitting methods and can be analyzed using Poisson process tools that lead to exact description of the distribution of the estimated probabilities and quantiles. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated in a problem related to digital watermarking.

  11. Multiscale Measurement of Extreme Response Style

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bolt, Daniel M.; Newton, Joseph R.

    2011-01-01

    This article extends a methodological approach considered by Bolt and Johnson for the measurement and control of extreme response style (ERS) to the analysis of rating data from multiple scales. Specifically, it is shown how the simultaneous analysis of item responses across scales allows for more accurate identification of ERS, and more effective…

  12. Improving the Accuracy of Estimation of Climate Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zolina, Olga; Detemmerman, Valery; Trenberth, Kevin E.

    2010-12-01

    Workshop on Metrics and Methodologies of Estimation of Extreme Climate Events; Paris, France, 27-29 September 2010; Climate projections point toward more frequent and intense weather and climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts, and floods, in a warmer climate. These projections, together with recent extreme climate events, including flooding in Pakistan and the heat wave and wildfires in Russia, highlight the need for improved risk assessments to help decision makers and the public. But accurate analysis and prediction of risk of extreme climate events require new methodologies and information from diverse disciplines. A recent workshop sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and hosted at United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) headquarters in France brought together, for the first time, a unique mix of climatologists, statisticians, meteorologists, oceanographers, social scientists, and risk managers (such as those from insurance companies) who sought ways to improve scientists' ability to characterize and predict climate extremes in a changing climate.

  13. Estimation of cold extremes and the identical distribution assumption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parey, Sylvie

    2016-04-01

    Extreme, generally not observed, values of meteorological (or other) hazards are estimated by use of observed time series and application of the statistical extreme value theory. This theory is based on the essential assumption that the events are independent and identically distributed. This assumption is generally not verified for meteorological hazards, firstly because these phenomena are seasonal, and secondly because climate change may induce temporal trends. These issues can be dealt with, by selecting the season of occurrence or handling trends in the extreme distribution parameters for example. When recently updating extreme cold temperatures, we faced different rather new difficulties: the threshold choice, when applying the Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach happened to be exceptionally difficult, and when applying block maxima, different block sizes could lead to significantly different return levels. A more detailed analysis of the exceedances of different cold thresholds showed that when the threshold becomes more extreme, the exceedances are not identically distributed across the years. This behaviour could have been related to the preferred phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during each winter, and the return level estimation has then been based on a sub-sampling between negative and positive NAO winters. The approach and the return level estimation from the sub-samples will be illustrated with an example.

  14. Estimating the extreme low-temperature event using nonparametric methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Silva, Anisha

    This thesis presents a new method of estimating the one-in-N low temperature threshold using a non-parametric statistical method called kernel density estimation applied to daily average wind-adjusted temperatures. We apply our One-in-N Algorithm to local gas distribution companies (LDCs), as they have to forecast the daily natural gas needs of their consumers. In winter, demand for natural gas is high. Extreme low temperature events are not directly related to an LDCs gas demand forecasting, but knowledge of extreme low temperatures is important to ensure that an LDC has enough capacity to meet customer demands when extreme low temperatures are experienced. We present a detailed explanation of our One-in-N Algorithm and compare it to the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution. We show that our One-in-N Algorithm estimates the one-in- N low temperature threshold more accurately than the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution according to root mean square error (RMSE) measure at a 5% level of significance. The One-in- N Algorithm is tested by counting the number of times the daily average wind-adjusted temperature is less than or equal to the one-in- N low temperature threshold.

  15. A Simulation Study on Methods of Correcting for the Effects of Extreme Response Style

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wetzel, Eunike; Böhnke, Jan R.; Rose, Norman

    2016-01-01

    The impact of response styles such as extreme response style (ERS) on trait estimation has long been a matter of concern to researchers and practitioners. This simulation study investigated three methods that have been proposed for the correction of trait estimates for ERS effects: (a) mixed Rasch models, (b) multidimensional item response models,…

  16. Estimation of fatigue and extreme load distributions from limited data with application to wind energy systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzwater, LeRoy M.

    2004-01-01

    An estimate of the distribution of fatigue ranges or extreme loads for wind turbines may be obtained by separating the problem into two uncoupled parts, (1) a turbine specific portion, independent of the site and (2) a site-specific description of environmental variables. We consider contextually appropriate probability models to describe the turbine specific response for extreme loads or fatigue. The site-specific portion is described by a joint probability distribution of a vector of environmental variables, which characterize the wind process at the hub-height of the wind turbine. Several approaches are considered for combining the two portions to obtain an estimate of the extreme load, e.g., 50-year loads or fatigue damage. We assess the efficacy of these models to obtain accurate estimates, including various levels of epistemic uncertainty, of the turbine response.

  17. Estimation of local extreme suspended sediment concentrations in California Rivers.

    PubMed

    Tramblay, Yves; Saint-Hilaire, André; Ouarda, Taha B M J; Moatar, Florentina; Hecht, Barry

    2010-09-01

    The total amount of suspended sediment load carried by a stream during a year is usually transported during one or several extreme events related to high river flow and intense rainfall, leading to very high suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs). In this study quantiles of SSC derived from annual maximums and the 99th percentile of SSC series are considered to be estimated locally in a site-specific approach using regional information. Analyses of relationships between physiographic characteristics and the selected indicators were undertaken using the localities of 5-km radius draining of each sampling site. Multiple regression models were built to test the regional estimation for these indicators of suspended sediment transport. To assess the accuracy of the estimates, a Jack-Knife re-sampling procedure was used to compute the relative bias and root mean square error of the models. Results show that for the 19 stations considered in California, the extreme SSCs can be estimated with 40-60% uncertainty, depending on the presence of flow regulation in the basin. This modelling approach is likely to prove functional in other Mediterranean climate watersheds since they appear useful in California, where geologic, climatic, physiographic, and land-use conditions are highly variable. PMID:20570317

  18. Areal rainfall construction and estimation of extreme quantiles.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penot, David; Paquet, Emmanuel; Lang, Michel

    2014-05-01

    Areal rainfall estimation and extrapolation to extremes is a key issue for catchment flood study. It is a tricky problem which deals with spatial interpolation (to build an estimate at the catchment's scale based on few rain gauges only), and probabilistic extrapolation (for extreme values estimation). In this study, several methods to build an areal rainfall estimation are compared. The first method is the commonly used Thiessen polygons. A second way to build an areal rainfall relies on the SPAZM method [Gottardi, 2012], in which daily rain fields are reconstructed at a 1km2 resolution, with an interpolation scheme integrating the altitude of the pixel and the weather type of the day. These two methods are compared to the stochastic rain field simulator SAMPO [Leblois et Creutin, 2013], which is an adaptation of the turning band method allowing to generate over 50 years of realistic rain fields. Several questions are tackled in this study: In a Thiessen estimation, how many rain gauges should be selected ? Which weighting scheme should be used ? SPAZM is an interpolator designed to produce unbiased mean annual precipitation (MAP) at a catchment's scale. So if a Thiessen areal rainfall is scaled to fit the MAP given by SPAZM, how does it affect its extreme rainfall estimation ? If a virtual rain gauges network is extracted from the rain fields generated by SAMPO, how do behave the Thiessen and SPAZM areal rainfall estimations based on these point values ? At the end, some abatement functions are obtained, showing the influence of the catchment's area and the options chosen to build the areal rainfall estimations. References: F. Gottardi, C. Obled, J. Gailhard, and E. Paquet, Statistical reanalysis of precipitation fields based on ground network data and weather patterns : Application over french mountains. Journal of Hydrology, 432-433:154 - 167, 2012. ISSN 0022-1694. E. Leblois and J-D. Creutin, Space-time simulation of intermittent rainfall with prescribed

  19. Evaluation of extreme precipitation estimates from TRMM in Angola

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pombo, Sandra; de Oliveira, Rodrigo Proença

    2015-04-01

    In situ ground observation measurement of precipitation is difficult in vast and sparsely populated areas, with poor road networks. This paper examines the use of remote sensors installed in satellites and evaluates the accuracy of TRMM 3B42 annual maximum daily precipitation estimates in Angola, in West Africa, a region where ground monitoring networks are generally. TRMM 3B42 estimates of annual maximum daily precipitation are compared to ground observation data from 159 locations. As a direct comparison between the two datasets for a common specific period and sites is not possible, a statistical approach was adopted to test the hypothesis that the TRMM 3B42 estimates and the ground monitoring records exhibit similar statistical characteristics. The study shows that the annual maximum daily precipitation estimates obtained from TRMM 3B42 slightly underestimate the quantiles obtained from the in situ observations. The use of remote sensing products to estimate extreme precipitation values for engineering design purposes is however promising. A maximum daily precipitation map for a return period of 20 years was computed and in the future, as the length of the remote sensing data series increases, it may be possible to estimate annual maximum daily precipitation estimates exclusively from these datasets for larger return periods. The paper also presents maps of the PdT/PDT ratios, where PdT is the annual maximum precipitation for a duration d and a return period of T years, and PDT is the annual maximum daily precipitation for a return period of T years. In conjunction with these maps it is possible to estimate the maximum precipitation for durations between 3 h and 5 days.

  20. Estimating temporal changes in extreme rainfall in Sicily Region (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonaccorso, Brunella; Aronica, Giuseppe

    2016-04-01

    An intensification of extreme rainfall events have characterized several areas of peninsular and insular Italy since the early 2000s, suggesting an upward ongoing trend likely driven by climate change. In the present study temporal changes in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12- and 24-hour annual maxima rainfall series from more than 200 sites in Sicily region (Italy) are examined. A regional study is performed in order to reduce the uncertainty in change detection related to the limited length of the available records of extreme rainfall series. More specifically, annual maxima series are treated according to a regional flood index - type approach to frequency analysis, by assuming stationarity on a decadal time scale. First a cluster analysis using at-site characteristics is used to determine homogeneous rainfall regions. Then, potential changes in regional L-moment ratios are analyzed using a 10-year moving window. Furthermore, the shapes of regional growth curves, derived by splitting the records into separate decades, are compared. In addition, a jackknife procedure is used to assess uncertainty in the fitted growth curves and to identify significant trends in quantile estimates. Results reveal that, despite L-moment ratios show a general decreasing trend and that growth curves corresponding to the last decade (2000-2009) are usually less steep than the ones of the previous periods, rainfall quantile estimates have increased during the 2000s due to a large increase in regional average median, mainly in Western Sicily.

  1. Statistical downscaling modeling with quantile regression using lasso to estimate extreme rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santri, Dewi; Wigena, Aji Hamim; Djuraidah, Anik

    2016-02-01

    Rainfall is one of the climatic elements with high diversity and has many negative impacts especially extreme rainfall. Therefore, there are several methods that required to minimize the damage that may occur. So far, Global circulation models (GCM) are the best method to forecast global climate changes include extreme rainfall. Statistical downscaling (SD) is a technique to develop the relationship between GCM output as a global-scale independent variables and rainfall as a local- scale response variable. Using GCM method will have many difficulties when assessed against observations because GCM has high dimension and multicollinearity between the variables. The common method that used to handle this problem is principal components analysis (PCA) and partial least squares regression. The new method that can be used is lasso. Lasso has advantages in simultaneuosly controlling the variance of the fitted coefficients and performing automatic variable selection. Quantile regression is a method that can be used to detect extreme rainfall in dry and wet extreme. Objective of this study is modeling SD using quantile regression with lasso to predict extreme rainfall in Indramayu. The results showed that the estimation of extreme rainfall (extreme wet in January, February and December) in Indramayu could be predicted properly by the model at quantile 90th.

  2. Combining Empirical and Stochastic Models for Extreme Floods Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zemzami, M.; Benaabidate, L.

    2013-12-01

    Hydrological models can be defined as physical, mathematical or empirical. The latter class uses mathematical equations independent of the physical processes involved in the hydrological system. The linear regression and Gradex (Gradient of Extreme values) are classic examples of empirical models. However, conventional empirical models are still used as a tool for hydrological analysis by probabilistic approaches. In many regions in the world, watersheds are not gauged. This is true even in developed countries where the gauging network has continued to decline as a result of the lack of human and financial resources. Indeed, the obvious lack of data in these watersheds makes it impossible to apply some basic empirical models for daily forecast. So we had to find a combination of rainfall-runoff models in which it would be possible to create our own data and use them to estimate the flow. The estimated design floods would be a good choice to illustrate the difficulties facing the hydrologist for the construction of a standard empirical model in basins where hydrological information is rare. The construction of the climate-hydrological model, which is based on frequency analysis, was established to estimate the design flood in the Anseghmir catchments, Morocco. The choice of using this complex model returns to its ability to be applied in watersheds where hydrological information is not sufficient. It was found that this method is a powerful tool for estimating the design flood of the watershed and also other hydrological elements (runoff, volumes of water...).The hydrographic characteristics and climatic parameters were used to estimate the runoff, water volumes and design flood for different return periods.

  3. Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Population without Power during Extreme Weather Events

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Fernandez, Steven J; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    2010-01-01

    One challenge in emergency preparedness and response during extreme weather events such as hurricanes and ice storms is estimating how many people may be without power and how long they could be without power. In this presentation, we will discuss a method for estimating the spatial distribution of people without power during extreme weather events. The method is based on a directional nearest-neighbor approach in which grid cells representing substation locations acquire other grid cells representing customers/population demand with respect to the capacity of each substation. We also present a method for estimating restoration time in case of an outage. The application of these methods during the 2008 hurricane season will also be discussed.

  4. Extreme air-sea surface turbulent fluxes in mid latitudes - estimation, origins and mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gulev, Sergey; Natalia, Tilinina

    2014-05-01

    Extreme turbulent heat fluxes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific mid latitudes were estimated from the modern era and first generation reanalyses (NCEP-DOE, ERA-Interim, MERRA NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25) for the period from 1979 onwards. We used direct surface turbulent flux output as well as reanalysis state variables from which fluxes have been computed using COARE-3 bulk algorithm. For estimation of extreme flux values we analyzed surface flux probability density distribution which was approximated by Modified Fisher-Tippett distribution. In all reanalyses extreme turbulent heat fluxes amount to 1500-2000 W/m2 (for the 99th percentile) and can exceed 2000 W/m2 for higher percentiles in the western boundary current extension (WBCE) regions. Different reanalyses show significantly different shape of MFT distribution, implying considerable differences in the estimates of extreme fluxes. The highest extreme turbulent latent heat fluxes are diagnosed in NCEP-DOE, ERA-Interim and NCEP-CFSR reanalyses with the smallest being in MERRA. These differences may not necessarily reflect the differences in mean values. Analysis shows that differences in statistical properties of the state variables are the major source of differences in the shape of PDF of fluxes and in the estimates of extreme fluxes while the contribution of computational schemes used in different reanalyses is minor. The strongest differences in the characteristics of probability distributions of surface fluxes and extreme surface flux values between different reanalyses are found in the WBCE extension regions and high latitudes. In the next instance we analyzed the mechanisms responsible for forming surface turbulent fluxes and their potential role in changes of midlatitudinal heat balance. Midlatitudinal cyclones were considered as the major mechanism responsible for extreme turbulent fluxes which are typically occur during the cold air outbreaks in the rear parts of cyclones when atmospheric conditions

  5. Estimating changes in temperature extremes from millennial-scale climate simulations using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Whitney K.; Stein, Michael L.; McInerney, David J.; Sun, Shanshan; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

    2016-07-01

    Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, it is intrinsically difficult to estimate changes in extreme events from the short observational record. In this work we use millennial runs from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) in equilibrated pre-industrial and possible future (700 and 1400 ppm CO2) conditions to examine both how extremes change in this model and how well these changes can be estimated as a function of run length. We estimate changes to distributions of future temperature extremes (annual minima and annual maxima) in the contiguous United States by fitting generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. Using 1000-year pre-industrial and future time series, we show that warm extremes largely change in accordance with mean shifts in the distribution of summertime temperatures. Cold extremes warm more than mean shifts in the distribution of wintertime temperatures, but changes in GEV location parameters are generally well explained by the combination of mean shifts and reduced wintertime temperature variability. For cold extremes at inland locations, return levels at long recurrence intervals show additional effects related to changes in the spread and shape of GEV distributions. We then examine uncertainties that result from using shorter model runs. In theory, the GEV distribution can allow prediction of infrequent events using time series shorter than the recurrence interval of those events. To investigate how well this approach works in practice, we estimate 20-, 50-, and 100-year extreme events using segments of varying lengths. We find that even using GEV distributions, time series of comparable or shorter length than the return period of interest can lead to very poor estimates. These results suggest caution when attempting to use short observational time series or model runs to infer infrequent extremes.

  6. Responses of neurons to extreme osmomechanical stress.

    PubMed

    Wan, X; Harris, J A; Morris, C E

    1995-05-01

    Neurons are often regarded as fragile cells, easily destroyed by mechanical and osmotic insult. The results presented here demonstrate that this perception needs revision. Using extreme osmotic swelling, we show that molluscan neurons are astonishingly robust. In distilled water, a heterogeneous population of Lymnaea stagnalis CNS neurons swelled to several times their initial volume, yet had a ST50 (survival time for 50% of cells) > 60 min. Cells that were initially bigger survived longer. On return to normal medium, survivors were able, over the next 24 hr, to rearborize. Reversible membrane capacitance changes corresponding to about 0.7 muF/cm2 of apparent surface area accompanied neuronal swelling and shrinking in hypo- and hyperosmotic solutions; reversible changes in cell surface area evidently contributed to the neurons' ability to accommodate hydrostatic pressures then recover. The reversible membrane area/capacitance changes were not dependent on extracellular Ca2+. Neurons were monitored for potassium currents during direct mechanical inflation and during osmotically driven inflation. The latter but not the former stimulus routinely elicited small potassium currents, suggesting that tension increases activate the currents only if additional disruption of the cortex has occurred. Under stress in distilled water, a third of the neurons displayed a quite unexpected behavior: prolonged writhing of peripheral regions of the soma. This suggested that a plasma membrane-linked contractile machinery (presumably actomyosin) might contribute to the neurons' mechano-osmotic robustness by restricting water influx. Consistent with this possibility, 1 mM N-ethyl-maleimide, which inhibits myosin ATPase, decreased the ST50 to 18 min, rendered the survival time independent of initial size, and abolished writhing activity. For neurons, active mechanical resistance of the submembranous cortex, along with the mechanical compliance supplied by insertion or eversion of membrane

  7. Crop insurance evaluation in response to extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moriondo, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco

    2013-04-01

    Crop yield insurance has been indicated as a tool to manage the uncertainties of crop yields (Sherrick et al., 2004) but the changes in crop yield variability as expected in the near future should be carefully considered for a better quantitative assessment of farmer's revenue risk and insurance values in a climatic change regime (Moriondo et al., 2011). Under this point of view, mechanistic crop growth models coupled to the output of General/Regional Circulation Models (GCMs, RCMs) offer a valuable tool to evaluate crop responses to climatic change and this approach has been extensively used to describe crop yield distribution in response to climatic change considering changes in both mean climate and variability. In this work, we studied the effect of a warmer climate on crop yield distribution of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp durum) in order to assess the economic significance of climatic change in a risk decision context. Specifically, the outputs of 6 RCMs (Tmin, Tmax, Rainfall, Global Radiation) (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009) have been statistically downscaled by a stochastic weather generator over eight sites across the Mediterranean basin and used to feed the crop growth model Sirius Quality. Three time slices were considered i) the present period PP (average of the period 1975-1990, [CO2]=350 ppm), 2020 (average of the period 2010-2030, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=415 ppm) and 2040 (average of the period 2030-2050, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=480 ppm). The effect of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also considered. The outputs of these simulations were used to estimate the expected payout per hectare from insurance triggered when yields fall below a specific threshold defined as "the insured yield". For each site, the threshold was calculated as a fraction (70%) of the median of yield distribution under PP that represents the percentage of median yield above which indemnity payments are triggered. The results

  8. (When and where) Do extreme climate events trigger extreme ecosystem responses? - Development and initial results of a holistic analysis framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauber, Eva K.; Donner, Reik V.

    2015-04-01

    In the context of ongoing climate change, extremes are likely to increase in magnitude and frequency. One of the most important consequences of these changes is that the associated ecological risks and impacts are potentially rising as well. In order to better anticipate and understand these impacts, it therefore becomes more and more crucial to understand the general connection between climate extremes and the response and functionality of ecosystems. Among other region of the world, Europe presents an excellent test case for studies concerning the interaction between climate and biosphere, since it lies in the transition region between cold polar and warm tropical air masses and thus covers a great variety of different climatic zones and associated terrestrial ecosystems. The large temperature differences across the continent make this region particularly interesting for investigating the effects of climate change on biosphere-climate interactions. However, previously used methods for defining an extreme event typically disregard the necessity of taking seasonality as well as seasonal variance appropriately into account. Furthermore, most studies have focused on the impacts of individual extreme events instead of considering a whole inventory of extremes with their respective spatio-temporal extents. In order to overcome the aforementioned research gaps, this work introduces a new approach to studying climate-biosphere interactions associated with extreme events, which comprises three consecutive steps: (1) Since Europe exhibits climatic conditions characterized by marked seasonality, a novel method is developed to define extreme events taking into account the seasonality in all quantiles of the probability distribution of the respective variable of interest. This is achieved by considering kernel density estimates individually for each observation date during the year, including the properly weighted information from adjacent dates. By this procedure, we obtain

  9. Streamflow response to increasing precipitation extremes altered by forest management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelly, Charlene N.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Miniat, Chelcy Ford; Vose, James M.

    2016-04-01

    Increases in extreme precipitation events of floods and droughts are expected to occur worldwide. The increase in extreme events will result in changes in streamflow that are expected to affect water availability for human consumption and aquatic ecosystem function. We present an analysis that may greatly improve current streamflow models by quantifying the impact of the interaction between forest management and precipitation. We use daily long-term data from paired watersheds that have undergone forest harvest or species conversion. We find that interactive effects of climate change, represented by changes in observed precipitation trends, and forest management regime, significantly alter expected streamflow most often during extreme events, ranging from a decrease of 59% to an increase of 40% in streamflow, depending upon management. Our results suggest that vegetation might be managed to compensate for hydrologic responses due to climate change to help mitigate effects of extreme changes in precipitation.

  10. Response of Simple, Model Systems to Extreme Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Ewing, Rodney C.; Lang, Maik

    2015-07-30

    The focus of the research was on the application of high-pressure/high-temperature techniques, together with intense energetic ion beams, to the study of the behavior of simple oxide systems (e.g., SiO2, GeO2, CeO2, TiO2, HfO2, SnO2, ZnO and ZrO2) under extreme conditions. These simple stoichiometries provide unique model systems for the analysis of structural responses to pressure up to and above 1 Mbar, temperatures of up to several thousands of kelvin, and the extreme energy density generated by energetic heavy ions (tens of keV/atom). The investigations included systematic studies of radiation- and pressure-induced amorphization of high P-T polymorphs. By studying the response of simple stoichiometries that have multiple structural “outcomes”, we have established the basic knowledge required for the prediction of the response of more complex structures to extreme conditions. We especially focused on the amorphous state and characterized the different non-crystalline structure-types that result from the interplay of radiation and pressure. For such experiments, we made use of recent technological developments, such as the perforated diamond-anvil cell and in situ investigation using synchrotron x-ray sources. We have been particularly interested in using extreme pressures to alter the electronic structure of a solid prior to irradiation. We expected that the effects of modified band structure would be evident in the track structure and morphology, information which is much needed to describe theoretically the fundamental physics of track-formation. Finally, we investigated the behavior of different simple-oxide, composite nanomaterials (e.g., uncoated nanoparticles vs. core/shell systems) under coupled, extreme conditions. This provided insight into surface and boundary effects on phase stability under extreme conditions.

  11. Estimation, modeling, and simulation of patterned growth in extreme environments.

    PubMed

    Strader, B; Schubert, K E; Quintana, M; Gomez, E; Curnutt, J; Boston, P

    2011-01-01

    In the search for life on Mars and other extraterrestrial bodies or in our attempts to identify biological traces in the most ancient rock record of Earth, one of the biggest problems facing us is how to recognize life or the remains of ancient life in a context very different from our planet's modern biological examples. Specific chemistries or biological properties may well be inapplicable to extraterrestrial conditions or ancient Earth environments. Thus, we need to develop an arsenal of techniques that are of broader applicability. The notion of patterning created in some fashion by biological processes and properties may provide such a generalized property of biological systems no matter what the incidentals of chemistry or environmental conditions. One approach to recognizing these kinds of patterns is to look at apparently organized arrangements created and left by life in extreme environments here on Earth, especially at various spatial scales, different geologies, and biogeochemical circumstances.

  12. Mapping of Estimations and Prediction Intervals Using Extreme Learning Machines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leuenberger, Michael; Kanevski, Mikhail

    2015-04-01

    Due to the large amount and complexity of data available nowadays in environmental sciences, we face the need to apply more robust methodology allowing analyses and understanding of the phenomena under study. One particular but very important aspect of this understanding is the reliability of generated prediction models. From the data collection to the prediction map, several sources of error can occur and affect the final result. Theses sources are mainly identified as uncertainty in data (data noise), and uncertainty in the model. Their combination leads to the so-called prediction interval. Quantifying these two categories of uncertainty allows a finer understanding of phenomena under study and a better assessment of the prediction accuracy. The present research deals with a methodology combining a machine learning algorithm (ELM - Extreme Learning Machine) with a bootstrap-based procedure. Developed by G.-B. Huang et al. (2006), ELM is an artificial neural network following the structure of a multilayer perceptron (MLP) with one single hidden layer. Compared to classical MLP, ELM has the ability to learn faster without loss of accuracy, and need only one hyper-parameter to be fitted (that is the number of nodes in the hidden layer). The key steps of the proposed method are as following: sample from the original data a variety of subsets using bootstrapping; from these subsets, train and validate ELM models; and compute residuals. Then, the same procedure is performed a second time with only the squared training residuals. Finally, taking into account the two modeling levels allows developing the mean prediction map, the model uncertainty variance, and the data noise variance. The proposed approach is illustrated using geospatial data. References Efron B., and Tibshirani R. 1986, Bootstrap Methods for Standard Errors, Confidence Intervals, and Other Measures of Statistical accuracy, Statistical Science, vol. 1: 54-75. Huang G.-B., Zhu Q.-Y., and Siew C.-K. 2006

  13. Responses of greenhouse gas fluxes to climate extremes in a semiarid grassland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Linfeng; Fan, Wenyu; Kang, Xiaoming; Wang, Yanfen; Cui, Xiaoyong; Xu, Chengyuan; Griffin, Kevin L.; Hao, Yanbin

    2016-10-01

    Climate extremes are expected to increase in frequency and intensity as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change attributed to the rise of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, studies on the impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are limited. Here, we experimentally imposed extreme drought and a heat wave (∼60-year recurrence) to investigate their effects on GHGs fluxes of a semiarid grassland in China. We estimated a 16% and 38% percent reduction in net ecosystem CO2 uptake caused by the heat wave and drought respectively, but via different mechanisms. Drought reduced gross ecosystem productively (GEP) and to a lower extent ecosystem respiration (ER). By contrast, the simulated heat wave suppressed only GEP while ER remained stable. The climate extremes also created a legacy effect on GEP and NEE lasting until the end of the growing season, whereas ER recovered immediately. Although CH4 and N2O fluxes were unaffected by the heat wave, drought promoted CH4 uptake and suppressed N2O emission during the treatment period. The effect of drought on GHGs fluxes generally overwhelmed that of the heat wave treatment, and there were no interactive effects of these two types of climate extremes. Our results showed that responses of ecosystem GHGs exchange to climate extremes are strongly regulated by soil moisture status. In conclusion, future amplification of climate extremes could decrease the sink for GHGs, especially CO2, in this semiarid grasslands.

  14. Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change.

    PubMed

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    2014-08-28

    Snowfall is an important element of the climate system, and one that is expected to change in a warming climate. Both mean snowfall and the intensity distribution of snowfall are important, with heavy snowfall events having particularly large economic and human impacts. Simulations with climate models indicate that annual mean snowfall declines with warming in most regions but increases in regions with very low surface temperatures. The response of heavy snowfall events to a changing climate, however, is unclear. Here I show that in simulations with climate models under a scenario of high emissions of greenhouse gases, by the late twenty-first century there are smaller fractional changes in the intensities of daily snowfall extremes than in mean snowfall over many Northern Hemisphere land regions. For example, for monthly climatological temperatures just below freezing and surface elevations below 1,000 metres, the 99.99th percentile of daily snowfall decreases by 8% in the multimodel median, compared to a 65% reduction in mean snowfall. Both mean and extreme snowfall must decrease for a sufficiently large warming, but the climatological temperature above which snowfall extremes decrease with warming in the simulations is as high as -9 °C, compared to -14 °C for mean snowfall. These results are supported by a physically based theory that is consistent with the observed rain-snow transition. According to the theory, snowfall extremes occur near an optimal temperature that is insensitive to climate warming, and this results in smaller fractional changes for higher percentiles of daily snowfall. The simulated changes in snowfall that I find would influence surface snow and its hazards; these changes also suggest that it may be difficult to detect a regional climate-change signal in snowfall extremes.

  15. Estimation of friction velocity from the wind-wave spectrum at extremely high wind speeds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takagaki, N.; Komori, S.; Suzuki, N.

    2016-05-01

    The equilibrium range of wind-waves at normal and extremely high wind speeds was investigated experimentally using a high-speed wind-wave tank together with field measurements at normal wind speeds. Water level fluctuations at normal and extremely high wind speeds were measured with resistance-type wave gauges, and the wind-wave spectrum and significant phase velocity were calculated. The equilibrium range constant was estimated from the wind-wave spectrum and showed the strong relationship with inverse wave age at normal and extremely high wind speeds. Using the strong relation between the equilibrium range constant and inverse wave age, a new method for estimating the wind speed at 10-m height (U 10) and friction velocity (u*) was proposed. The results suggest that U 10 and u* can be estimated from wave measurements alone at extremely high wind speeds in oceans under tropical cyclones.

  16. Estimating the Extreme Behaviors of Students Performance Using Quantile Regression--Evidences from Taiwan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Sheng-Tung; Kuo, Hsiao-I.; Chen, Chi-Chung

    2012-01-01

    The two-stage least squares approach together with quantile regression analysis is adopted here to estimate the educational production function. Such a methodology is able to capture the extreme behaviors of the two tails of students' performance and the estimation outcomes have important policy implications. Our empirical study is applied to the…

  17. Response Styles in Rating Scales: Simultaneous Modeling of Content-Related Effects and the Tendency to Middle or Extreme Categories

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tutz, Gerhard; Berger, Moritz

    2016-01-01

    Heterogeneity in response styles can affect the conclusions drawn from rating scale data. In particular, biased estimates can be expected if one ignores a tendency to middle categories or to extreme categories. An adjacent categories model is proposed that simultaneously models the content-related effects and the heterogeneity in response styles.…

  18. Quantifying the US Crop Yield in Response to Extreme Climatic Events from 1948 to 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Z.; Zhuang, Q.

    2014-12-01

    The increasingly frequent and severe extreme climatic events (ECEs) under climate changes will negatively affect crop productivity and threat the global food security. Reliable forecast of crop yields response to those ECEs is a prerequisite for developing strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress of quantifying such responses with ecosystem models has been slow. In this study, we first review existing algorithms of yields response to ECEs among major crops (i.e., Corn, Wheat and Soybean) for the United States from a set of process-based crop models. These algorithms are aggregated into four categories of ECEs: drought, heavy precipitation, extreme heat, and frost. Species-specific ECEs thresholds as tipping point of crop yield response curve are examined. Four constraint scalar functions derived for each category of ECEs are then added to an agricultural ecosystem model, CLM-AG, respectively. The revised model is driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1948 to 2013 to estimate the US major crop yields, and then evaluated with county-level yield statistics from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). We also include MODIS NPP product as a reference for the period 2001-2013. Our study will help to identify gaps in capturing yield response to ECEs with contemporary crop models, and provide a guide on developing the new generation of crop models to account for the effects of more future extreme climate events.

  19. Nonparametric functional data estimation applied to ozone data: prediction and extreme value analysis.

    PubMed

    Quintela-del-Río, Alejandro; Francisco-Fernández, Mario

    2011-02-01

    The study of extreme values and prediction of ozone data is an important topic of research when dealing with environmental problems. Classical extreme value theory is usually used in air-pollution studies. It consists in fitting a parametric generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to a data set of extreme values, and using the estimated distribution to compute return levels and other quantities of interest. Here, we propose to estimate these values using nonparametric functional data methods. Functional data analysis is a relatively new statistical methodology that generally deals with data consisting of curves or multi-dimensional variables. In this paper, we use this technique, jointly with nonparametric curve estimation, to provide alternatives to the usual parametric statistical tools. The nonparametric estimators are applied to real samples of maximum ozone values obtained from several monitoring stations belonging to the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) in the UK. The results show that nonparametric estimators work satisfactorily, outperforming the behaviour of classical parametric estimators. Functional data analysis is also used to predict stratospheric ozone concentrations. We show an application, using the data set of mean monthly ozone concentrations in Arosa, Switzerland, and the results are compared with those obtained by classical time series (ARIMA) analysis. PMID:21144549

  20. On the response of European phenology to Extreme Climate Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guido, C.; Gobron, N.

    2012-12-01

    Extreme Climate Events are expected to alter carbon cycle processes, with implications for ecosystems and feedback to regional and global climate. Hence, understanding the interactions between Extreme Climate Events and vegetation dynamics is essential for improved climate prediction. In this work, the authors analyze carbon cycle dynamics over the European domain using Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) derived from Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) data (1997-2002) and MERIS (2003-2011) at ~1 km resolution. As part of this analysis, six phenological metrics were defined from FAPAR measurement to characterize the ecosystem response to climate and anthropogenic forcing at the land surface. Based on phenological metrics analysis, the inter-annual vegetation variations, their dependence on drought and heat waves, and the presence of long-term trends were detected. In addition, the authors have assessed Rain Use Efficiency (RUE), represented by the ratio of annual sum FAPAR and annual rainfall, and the correlation between FAPAR, precipitation and temperature anomalies over the same time period. Climate anomalies largely explain the recent anomalies of FAPAR- and consequently of carbon cycle. Hence, well-defined large scale patterns of RUE and phenological metrics are discernible: the large scale drought that struck Europe in year 2003 has a distinct signature, as well as the continuous positive anomaly during summer 2002 (due to intense rainfall) is well-depicted.

  1. Bacterial survival responses to extreme desiccation and high humidity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Yinjie; Yokobori, Shinichi; Yamagishi, Akihiko

    The presence of water is thought to be essential for life and strongly considered in life searching operation on extraterrestrial planets. In this study we show different survival responses of bacterial species to water availability and temperatures (25, 4 and - 70 o C). At these temperatures, E.coli lost viability much faster under extreme desiccation than under high humidity. Deinococcus radiodurans exhibited much higher survival rate under desiccation than under high humidity at 25 o C, while its survivals under desiccation and high humidity increased to the same level at 4 and - 70 o C. Bacillus pumilus spores generally survived well under all tested conditions. Water is favorable for the survival of most microorganisms but not a "safeguard" for all microorganisms. Microbial survival at low temperatures may not be affected by water availability. Water absence should not preclude us from seeking life on other planets.

  2. Diatom response to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields

    SciTech Connect

    Parkinson, W.C.; Sulik, G.L. )

    1992-06-01

    Reports that extremely low-frequency magnetic fields can interfere with normal biological cell function continue to stimulate experimental activity as well as investigations into the possible mechanism of the interaction. The cyclotron resonance' model of Liboff has been tested by Smith et al. using as the biological test system the diatom Amphora coffeiformis. They report enhanced motility of the diatom in response to a low-frequency electromagnetic field tuned to the cyclotron resonance condition for calcium ions. We report here an attempt to reproduce their results. Following their protocol diatoms were seeded onto agar plates containing varying amounts of calcium and exposed to colinear DC and AC magnetic fields tuned to the cyclotron resonant condition for frequencies of 16, 30, and 60 Hz. The fractional motility was compared with that of control plates seeded at the same time from the same culture. We find no evidence of a cyclotron resonance effect.

  3. Flood Frequency Estimates and Documented and Potential Extreme Peak Discharges in Oklahoma

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tortorelli, Robert L.; McCabe, Lan P.

    2001-01-01

    Knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of floods is required for the safe and economical design of highway bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other structures on or near streams; and for flood plain management programs. Flood frequency estimates for gaged streamflow sites were updated, documented extreme peak discharges for gaged and miscellaneous measurement sites were tabulated, and potential extreme peak discharges for Oklahoma streamflow sites were estimated. Potential extreme peak discharges, derived from the relation between documented extreme peak discharges and contributing drainage areas, can provide valuable information concerning the maximum peak discharge that could be expected at a stream site. Potential extreme peak discharge is useful in conjunction with flood frequency analysis to give the best evaluation of flood risk at a site. Peak discharge and flood frequency for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years were estimated for 352 gaged streamflow sites. Data through 1999 water year were used from streamflow-gaging stations with at least 8 years of record within Oklahoma or about 25 kilometers into the bordering states of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico, and Texas. These sites were in unregulated basins, and basins affected by regulation, urbanization, and irrigation. Documented extreme peak discharges and associated data were compiled for 514 sites in and near Oklahoma, 352 with streamflow-gaging stations and 162 at miscellaneous measurements sites or streamflow-gaging stations with short record, with a total of 671 measurements.The sites are fairly well distributed statewide, however many streams, large and small, have never been monitored. Potential extreme peak-discharge curves were developed for streamflow sites in hydrologic regions of the state based on documented extreme peak discharges and the contributing drainage areas. Two hydrologic regions, east and west, were defined using 98 degrees 15 minutes longitude as the

  4. Input estimation from measured structural response

    SciTech Connect

    Harvey, Dustin; Cross, Elizabeth; Silva, Ramon A; Farrar, Charles R; Bement, Matt

    2009-01-01

    This report will focus on the estimation of unmeasured dynamic inputs to a structure given a numerical model of the structure and measured response acquired at discrete locations. While the estimation of inputs has not received as much attention historically as state estimation, there are many applications where an improved understanding of the immeasurable input to a structure is vital (e.g. validating temporally varying and spatially-varying load models for large structures such as buildings and ships). In this paper, the introduction contains a brief summary of previous input estimation studies. Next, an adjoint-based optimization method is used to estimate dynamic inputs to two experimental structures. The technique is evaluated in simulation and with experimental data both on a cantilever beam and on a three-story frame structure. The performance and limitations of the adjoint-based input estimation technique are discussed.

  5. Estimating Single-Trial Responses in EEG

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shah, A. S.; Knuth, K. H.; Truccolo, W. A.; Mehta, A. D.; Fu, K. G.; Johnston, T. A.; Ding, M.; Bressler, S. L.; Schroeder, C. E.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Accurate characterization of single-trial field potential responses is critical from a number of perspectives. For example, it allows differentiation of an evoked response from ongoing EEG. We previously developed the multiple component Event Related Potential (mcERP) algorithm to improve resolution of the single-trial evoked response. The mcERP model states that multiple components, each specified by a stereotypic waveform varying in latency and amplitude from trial to trial, comprise the evoked response. Application of the mcERP algorithm to simulated data with three independent, synthetic components has shown that the model is capable of separating these components and estimating their variability. Application of the model to single trial, visual evoked potentials recorded simultaneously from all V1 laminae in an awake, fixating macaque yielded local and far-field components. Certain local components estimated by the model were distributed in both granular and supragranular laminae. This suggests a linear coupling between the responses of thalamo-recipient neuronal ensembles and subsequent responses of supragranular neuronal ensembles, as predicted by the feedforward anatomy of V1. Our results indicate that the mcERP algorithm provides a valid estimation of single-trial responses. This will enable analyses that depend on trial-to-trial variations and those that require separation of the evoked response from background EEG rhythms

  6. Statistical downscaling with generalized Pareto distribution (Study case: Extreme rainfall estimation)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kinanti, Shynde Limar; Wigena, Aji Hamim; Djuraidah, Anik

    2016-02-01

    Indonesia has tropical climate with small variation of temperature but quite large variation of rainfall. So the rainfall which is an essential climate element related to climate change has to be observed. Climate change may increase the incidence of extreme rainfall that affects flooding in farmland. In order to anticipate the occurrence of extreme rainfall, the information of rainfall forecast is required. Statistical Downscaling (SD) is a technique to model the relationship between global scale data and local scale data. Global Circulation Model (GCM) output is global scale data and rainfall is local scale data. GCM has characteristic non-linear, high dimension, and multicolinierity. These problem can be overcome by principal component analysis (PCA). One of the primary methods for estimating extreme rainfall is generalize Pareto distribution (GPD) regression based on a threshold. The objective of this study is SD modeling based on GPD to predict extreme rainfall. The result show that GPD models can predict extreme rainfall well. Monthly rainfall prediction in January and December show a higher value than the actual data, but predictions follow actual data pettern well, especially during extreme rainfall. February has the highest rainfall that occurred in 2008 with a value of 439 mm/month. This value can be estimated either by prediction on quantile 0.95.

  7. Remote Sensing of Surficial Process Responses to Extreme Meteorological Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brakenridge, G. Robert

    1997-01-01

    . Karen Prestegaard at the University of Maryland (geomorphological responses to the extreme 1993 flood along the Raccoon drainage in central Iowa), and with Mr Tim Scrom of the Albany National Weather Service River Forecast Center (initial planning for the use of Radarsat and ERS-2 for flood warning). The work thus initiated with this proposal is continuing.

  8. Placing Bounds on Extreme Temperature Response of Maize to Improve Crop Model Intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, C.; Babcock, B.; Peng, Y.; Gassman, P. W.; Campbell, T.

    2015-12-01

    We propose the development of community-based estimates for bounds on maize sensitivity to extreme temperature. We use model-based, observation-driven soil moisture climatology in a high maize production region in the United States to develop bounds on high temperature sensitivity through its dependence on available water. For the portion of the region with relatively long growing season, yield reduction per degree-C is 10% for high water availability and 32.5% for low water availability. Where the growing season is shorter, yield reduction per degree-C is 6% for high water availability and 27% for low water availability. High temperature sensitivity is indeterminate where extreme temperature yield effect does not yet exceed excessive water yield effect. We suggest new soil moisture climatology from reanalysis datasets could be used to develop community-based estimates of high temperature sensitivity that would significantly improve the accuracy of maize temperature sensitivity bounds, their regional variability, and their importance relative to other weather yield shocks. A community-based estimate would substantially improve evaluation of crop system simulation models and provide baseline information for evaluation of adaptation options. For instance, since process models are needed for evaluation of crop system adaptation response under climate projections, a community-developed estimate would provide a clear target for process model evaluation. Furthermore, the range of extreme temperature sensitivity from empirical models would provide a lower bound on variability that could be achieved from process models. If the process models achieved this bound, it would mean the uncertainty among their simulations would be primarily from observational limitations than differences in model response. While we demonstrate the potential in the context of maize, the concept could be implemented within any crop production system.

  9. Response of the Arctic Freshwater Budget to Extreme NAO Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Condron, A.; Winsor, P.

    2007-12-01

    Freshwater release from the Arctic to the deepwater convective regions of the Labrador and Nordic Seas is understood to play an important role in steering decadal global climate variability. An observed freshening of the North Atlantic since the mid-1960s appears to be related to changes in the export of freshwater from the Arctic, and the persistence of a high North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during this period. However, the specific response of the Arctic freshwater budget to the NAO is unclear. To investigate this response we use a high resolution (1/3 degree) regional version of the ocean-only MITgcm forced for 12 years with daily NCEP reanalysis data from 1992-2001. At this resolution the model resolves the major Arctic transport pathways, including the Bering Strait and Canadian Archipelago. We ran the model twice, keeping all reanalysis fields the same in both cases, but repeat the wind field of two contrasting NAO years in each run for the extreme negative and positive NAO phases of 1969 and 1989, respectively. Our results highlight a clear response in the Arctic freshwater budget to NAO forcing. Repeat NAO negative wind forcing results in virtually all freshwater being retained in the Arctic. In contrast, repeat NAO positive forcing increases the freshwater export out of the Arctic, primarily via the Fram Strait (54%) and Canadian Archipelago (29%), and results in a total loss in freshwater storage of 14000 km3. We find that the freshwater export via these two pathways increases by virtually the same amount (approx 700 km3 per yr) between the two forcing scenarios, highlighting the important role that the Canadian Archipelago plays in redistributing the freshwater of the Arctic.

  10. Placing bounds on extreme temperature response of maize

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, Christopher J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Peng, Yixing; Gassman, Philip W.; Campbell, Todd D.

    2015-12-01

    Plant water availability is a key factor that determines maize yield response to excess heat. Lack of available data has limited researchers’ ability to estimate this relationship at regional and global scales. Using a new soil moisture data set developed by running a crop growth simulator over historical data we demonstrate how current estimates of maize yield sensitivity to high temperature are misleading. We develop an empirical model relating observed yields to climate variables and soil moisture in a high maize production region in the United States to develop bounds on yield sensitivity to high temperatures. For the portion of the region with a relatively long growing season, yield reduction per °C is 10% for high water availability and 32.5% for low water availability. Where the growing season is shorter, yield reduction per °C is 6% for high water availability and 27% for low water availability. These results indicate the importance of using both water availability and temperature to model crop yield response to explain future climate change on crop yields.

  11. Estimating 21st century changes in extreme sea levels around Western Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haigh, I. D.; Pattiaratchi, C.

    2010-08-01

    Extreme sea levels are likely to increase in the future with an expected accelerated rise in mean sea level and through possible changes in storminess. Society is becoming more vulnerable to extreme sea levels due to considerable growth in human populations and economy at the coastal zone and this is particularly true for Western Australia, the fastest growing Australian state or region. This paper describes a novel approach used to estimate future changes in extreme sea level around the southwest coastline of Western Australia. Probabilities of extreme sea level for the present climate have been estimated using a 60 year hindcast of sea levels. The impact of climate change has been explored by adding a range of mean sea level rise projections to these probabilities. Estimates of possible future changes in recurrence intervals every decade over the 21st century are presented, showing that climate change has the potential to significantly reduce current average recurrence intervals and that the amount of reduction varies significantly around the coastline.

  12. Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2016-05-01

    A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

  13. Response and Recovery of Streams From an Extreme Flood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kantack, K. M.; Renshaw, C. E.; Magilligan, F. J.; Dethier, E.

    2015-12-01

    In temperate regions, channels are expected to recover from intense floods in a matter of months to years, but quantitative empirical support for this idea remains limited. Moreover, existing literature fails to address the spatial variability of the recovery process. Using an emerging technology, we investigate the immediate response to and progressive recovery of channels in the Northeastern United States from an extreme flood. We seek to determine what factors, including the nature and extent of the immediate response of the channel to the flood and post-flood availability of sediment, contribute to the spatial variability of the rate of recovery. Taking advantage of the 2011 flooding from Tropical Storm Irene, for which pre- and post-flood aerial lidar exist, along with a third set of terrestrial lidar collected in 2015, we assess channel response and recovery with multi-temporal lidar comparison. This method, with kilometers of continuous data, allows for analysis beyond traditional cross-section and reach-scale studies. Results indicate that landscape-scale factors, such as valley morphology and gradients in unit stream power, are controls on channel response to the flood, producing spatially variable impacts. Along a 16.4-km section (drainage area = 82 km2) of the Deerfield River in Vermont, over 148,000 m3 or erosion occurred during the flood. The spatial variation of impacts was correlated (R2= 0.476) with the ratio of channel width to valley width. We expect the recovery process will similarly exhibit spatial variation in rate and magnitude, possibly being governed by gradients in unit stream power and sediment availability. We test the idea that channel widening during the flood reduces post-flood unit stream power, creating a pathway for deposition and recovery to pre-flood width. Flood-widened reaches downstream of point-sources of sediment, such as landslides, will recover more quickly than those without consistent sediment supply. Results of this

  14. Neural saccadic response estimation during natural viewing

    PubMed Central

    Privitera, Claudio; Carney, Thom; Klein, Stanley A.

    2012-01-01

    Studying neural activity during natural viewing conditions is not often attempted. Isolating the neural response of a single saccade is necessary to study neural activity during natural viewing; however, the close temporal spacing of saccades that occurs during natural viewing makes it difficult to determine the response to a single saccade. Herein, a general linear model (GLM) approach is applied to estimate the EEG neural saccadic response for different segments of the saccadic main sequence separately. It is determined that, in visual search conditions, neural responses estimated by conventional event-related averaging are significantly and systematically distorted relative to GLM estimates due to the close temporal spacing of saccades during visual search. Before the GLM is applied, analyses are applied that demonstrate that saccades during visual search with intersaccadic spacings as low as 100–150 ms do not exhibit significant refractory effects. Therefore, saccades displaying different intersaccadic spacings during visual search can be modeled using the same regressor in a GLM. With the use of the GLM approach, neural responses were separately estimated for five different ranges of saccade amplitudes during visual search. Occipital responses time locked to the onsets of saccades during visual search were found to account for, on average, 79 percent of the variance of EEG activity in a window 90–200 ms after the onsets of saccades for all five saccade amplitude ranges that spanned a range of 0.2–6.0 degrees. A GLM approach was also used to examine the lateralized ocular artifacts associated with saccades. Possible extensions of the methods presented here to account for the superposition of microsaccades in event-related EEG studies conducted in nominal fixation conditions are discussed. PMID:22170971

  15. Development of a censored modelling approach for stochastic estimation of rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Bernardara, Pietro

    2016-04-01

    With the COP21 drawing to a close in December 2015, storms Desmond, Eva and Frank which swept across the UK and Ireland causing widespread flooding and devastation have acted as a timely reminder of the need for reliable estimation of rainfall extremes in a changing climate. The frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes are predicted to increase in the UK under anthropogenic climate change, and it is notable that the UK's 24 hour rainfall record of 316mm set in Seathwaite, Cumbria in 2009 was broken on the 5 December 2015 with 341mm by storm Desmond at Honister Pass also in Cumbria. Immediate analysis of the latter by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UK) on the 8 December 2015 estimated that this is approximately equivalent to a 1300 year return period event (Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 2015). Rainfall extremes are typically estimated using extreme value analysis and intensity duration frequency curves. This study investigates the potential for using stochastic rainfall simulation with mechanistic rectangular pulse models for estimation of extreme rainfall. These models have been used since the late 1980s to generate synthetic rainfall time-series at point locations for scenario analysis in hydrological studies and climate impact assessment at the catchment scale. Routinely they are calibrated to the full historical hyetograph and used for continuous simulation. However, their extremal performance is variable with a tendency to underestimate short duration (hourly and sub-hourly) rainfall extremes which are often associated with heavy convective rainfall in temporal climates such as the UK. Focussing on hourly and sub-hourly rainfall, a censored modelling approach is proposed in which rainfall below a low threshold is set to zero prior to model calibration. It is hypothesised that synthetic rainfall time-series are poor at estimating extremes because the majority of the training data are not representative of the climatic conditions which give rise to

  16. Agricultural Irrigation Demand Response Estimation Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Olsen, Daniel

    2014-02-01

    This program is used to model the energy demand of agricultural irrigation pumps, used to maintain soil moisture levels in irrigated fields. This modeling is accomplished using historical data from evapotranspirationmeasuring weather stations (from the California Irrigation Management Information System) as well as irrigation system characteristics for the field(s) to be modeled. The modelled energy demand is used to estimate the achievable demand response (DR) potential of the field(s), for use in assessing the value of the DR for the utility company. The program can accept input data with varying degrees of rigor, and estimate the uncertainty of the output accordingly.

  17. Robust estimate of dynamo thresholds in the von Kármán sodium experiment using the extreme value theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faranda, Davide; Bourgoin, Mickaël; Miralles, Sophie; Odier, Philippe; Pinton, Jean-François; Plihon, Nicolas; Daviaud, Francois; Dubrulle, Bérengère

    2014-08-01

    We apply a new threshold detection method based on the extreme value theory (EVT) to the von Kármán sodium (VKS) experiment data. The VKS experiment is a successful attempt to get a dynamo magnetic field in a laboratory liquid-metal experiment. We first show that the dynamo threshold is associated with a change of the probability density function of the extreme values of the magnetic field. This method does not require the measurement of response functions from applied external perturbations and thus provides a simple threshold estimate. We apply our method to different configurations in the VKS experiment, showing that it yields a robust indication of the dynamo threshold as well as evidence of hysteretic behaviors. Moreover, for the experimental configurations in which a dynamo transition is not observed, the method provides a way to extrapolate an interval of possible threshold values.

  18. Freeway safety estimation using extreme value theory approaches: a comparative study.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Lai; Ismail, Karim; Meng, Xianghai

    2014-01-01

    The validity of traffic conflicts and other surrogate events has been a great concern in the development and application of surrogate safety measures. Extreme value theory (EVT) offers a strong modeling framework for linking surrogate measures of safety to crash frequency. This study aims at developing, validating, and comparing two EVT modeling approaches for characterizing extreme events. The two alternative EVT approaches, block maxima (BM) and peak over threshold (POT), are used to relate surrogates and lane change maneuver-related crashes on freeways. The surrogate measure is post encroachment times measured from 4189 lane change maneuvers recorded at 29 directional freeway segments with approximately 3-h observation for each segment. The sample size, serial dependency, and non-stationarity issues for both approaches are examined. The comparison of results from the two modeling approaches indicates that the POT approach performs better than BM approach from the aspects of data utilization, estimate accuracy and estimate reliability. This conclusion is drawn on condition of relatively short time observations. An additional comparison is conducted between the estimated crashes and estimated return levels from two approaches. Due to large variances in the estimated crashes, much more robust estimated return levels are recommended for freeway safety evaluation.

  19. The end of trend-estimation for extreme floods under climate change?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schulz, Karsten; Bernhardt, Matthias

    2016-04-01

    An increased risk of flood events is one of the major threats under future climate change conditions. Therefore, many recent studies have investigated trends in flood extreme occurences using historic long-term river discharge data as well as simulations from combined global/regional climate and hydrological models. Severe floods are relatively rare events and the robust estimation of their probability of occurrence requires long time series of data (6). Following a method outlined by the IPCC research community, trends in extreme floods are calculated based on the difference of discharge values exceeding e.g. a 100-year level (Q100) between two 30-year windows, which represents prevailing conditions in a reference and a future time period, respectively. Following this approach, we analysed multiple, synthetically derived 2,000-year trend-free, yearly maximum runoff data generated using three different extreme value distributions (EDV). The parameters were estimated from long term runoff data of four large European watersheds (Danube, Elbe, Rhine, Thames). Both, Q100-values estimated from 30-year moving windows, as well as the subsequently derived trends showed enormous variations with time: for example, estimating the Extreme Value (Gumbel) - distribution for the Danube data, trends of Q100 in the synthetic time-series range from -4,480 to 4,028 m³/s per 100 years (Q100 =10,071m³/s, for reference). Similar results were found when applying other extreme value distributions (Weibull, and log-Normal) to all of the watersheds considered. This variability or "background noise" of estimating trends in flood extremes makes it almost impossible to significantly distinguish any real trend in observed as well as modelled data when such an approach is applied. These uncertainties, even though known in principle are hardly addressed and discussed by the climate change impact community. Any decision making and flood risk management, including the dimensioning of flood

  20. Extreme Floods and Probability Estimates for Dams: A 2D Distributed Model and Paleoflood Data Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    England, J. F.

    2006-12-01

    Estimates of extreme floods and probabilities are needed in dam safety risk analysis. A multidisciplinary approach was developed to estimate extreme floods that integrated four main elements: radar hydrometeorology, stochastic storm transposition, paleoflood data, and 2d distributed rainfall-runoff modeling. The research focused on developing and applying a two-dimensional, distributed model to simulate extreme floods on the 12,000 km2 Arkansas River above Pueblo, Colorado with return periods up to 10,000 years. The four objectives were to: (1) develop a two-dimensional model suitable for large watersheds (area greater than 2,500 km2); (2) calibrate and validate the model to the June 1921 and May 1894 floods on the Arkansas River; (3) develop a flood frequency curve with the model using the stochastic storm transposition technique; and (4) conduct a sensitivity analysis for initial soil saturation, storm duration and area, and compare the flood frequency curve with gage and paleoflood data. The Two-dimensional Runoff, Erosion and EXport (TREX) model was developed as part of this research. Basin-average rainfall depths and probabilities were estimated using DAD data and stochastic storm transposition with elliptical storms for input to TREX. From these extreme rainstorms, the TREX model was used to estimate a flood frequency curve for this large watershed. Model-generated peak flows were as large as 90,000 to 282,000 ft3/s at Pueblo for 100- to 10,000-year return periods, respectively. Model-generated frequency curves were generally comparable to peak flow and paleoflood data-based frequency curves after radar-based storm location and area limits were applied. The model provides a unique physically-based method for determining flood frequency curves under varied scenarios of antecedent moisture conditions, space and time variability of rainfall and watershed characteristics, and storm center locations.

  1. Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

    2013-04-01

    Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also

  2. Extreme flood estimations on a small alpine catchment in Switzerland, the case study of Limmerboden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeimetz, F.; García-Hernández, J.; Schleiss, A. J.

    2015-06-01

    In this paper, a case study on the estimations of extreme floods is described. The watershed chosen for the analysis is the catchment of the Limmernboden dam situated in Switzerland. Statistical methods and the simulation based "Probable Maximum Precipitation - Probable maximum Flood" (PMP-PMF) approach are applied for the estimation of the safety flood according to the Swiss flood directives. The results of both approaches are compared in order to determine the discrepancies between them. It can be outlined that the PMP-PMF method does not always overestimate the flood.

  3. Estimation of extreme precipitation; Return period values and PMP for Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engen-Skaugen, Torill; Alfnes, Eli; Førland, Eirik J.

    2010-05-01

    Estimates of extreme values of precipitation represented as return period values and Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) are frequently used in flood evaluation as well as dimensioning of hydro power dams. The estimates are also of interest for infrastructure constructions (e.g. urban runoff). The estimates establish a reference to how rare a heavy rainfall event at a location is. This study presents present-day and future return period values and PMP estimates for several catchments in Norway. Daily precipitation values are extracted from grids covering the Norwegian mainland, spatial resolution 1 x 1 km2, for the time period 1957 - 2009. The grids are interpolated from observations at all available rain gage stations operated by the Norwegian Meteorolgoical Institute in Norway. The maps can be seen at http://senorge.no (Mohr, 2009; Jansson et al., 2007). The rain gauge network in the high mountain region is sparse, leading to reduced quality in these regions. A rough correction of daily gauge precipitation for undercatch because of wind exposure is performed before interpolation. Six climate projections downscaled with different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are adjusted to be representative locally for the Norwegian mainland (Engen-Skaugen, 2007). Daily precipitation projections are established for the same grid extent as for observations. Time series of daily precipitation are then extracted from these grids representing the same catchments as the historic data. The estimates of extreme precipitation are based on daily precipitation values (Førland, 1992; Alfnes, 2007). Instead of producing area estimates based on site values adjusted by an Area Reduction Factor (ARF), area estimates in the present study is based on time series of daily precipitation representing the actual catchments extracted from the high resolution grids. Alfnes (2007) found that the five-year return value estimates (M5) for these two methods were similar, with exceptions for catchments

  4. Mars' Ionospheric Response to Extreme Space Weather Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulusen, D.; Brain, D.; Luhmann, J. G.; Mitchell, D.

    2011-12-01

    Extreme space weather events induce a variety of disturbances in the near space environment of planets. At Mars, which is not well protected due to lack of a global dipole field, these effects are expected to be more violent than at other planets. Mainly because of limited monitoring, the influence of these extreme events on the near Mars space has been investigated only in a few studies. The Electron Reflectometer (ER) onboard the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft was capable of indirectly detecting space weather events through background high energy particle flux measurements at the highest energy channels of the instrument. Over more than a seven year period these background measurements provide a data set of the energetic particle environment at Mars covering a broad spectrum of space weather events. We will present the results of a study correlating extreme events in MGS ER measurements with MGS Magnetometer and Radio Science experiment observations of the Martian ionosphere. Our results confirm the immediate photo-enhancement effect of the impulsive solar radiation during these extremes on the Martian ionosphere; however, show no clear evidence of an ionospheric enhancement due to energetic charged particles associated with the extreme events compared to quiet times' particle environment. Through in-depth case studies and statistical analysis of the entire data set which cover almost a complete solar cycle, we discuss implications of our findings and provide insight for the upcoming solar maximum at Mars.

  5. Selected human physiological responses during extreme heat: the Badwater Ultramarathon.

    PubMed

    Brown, Jacqueline S; Connolly, Declan A

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of this article was to examine various physiological responses during an ultramarathon held in extreme heat. Our investigation was conducted at The Badwater Ultramarathon, a nonstop 217-km run across Death Valley, CA, USA. This study recruited 4 male athletes, average age of 43 (±SD) (±7.35), (range) 39-54 years. All 4 subjects successfully completed the race with a mean finish time of 36:20:23 hours (±SD) (±3:08:38) (range) 34:05:25-40:51:46 hours, and a mean running speed of 6.03 km·h(-1) (±SD) (±0.05), (range) 5.3-6.4 km·h(-1). The anthropometric variables measured were (mean, ±SD) mass 79.33 kg (±6.43), height 1.80 m (±0.09), body surface area 1.93 m2 (±0.16), body mass index 24.38 kg·m(-2) (±1.25), fat mass 13.88% (±2.29), and body water 62.08% (±1.56). Selected physiological variables measured were core body temperature, skin temperature, heart rate, breathing rate, and blood pressure. Rate of perceived intensity, rate of thermal sensation, and environmental factors were also monitored. Our study found (mean and ±SD) core body temperature 37.49° C (±0.88); skin temperature 31.13° C (±3.06); heart rate 106.79 b·min(-1) (±5.11); breathing rate 36.55 b·min(-1) (±0.60); blood pressure 128/86 mm Hg (±9.24/4.62); rate of perceived intensity 5.49 (±1.26); rate of thermal sensation 4.69 (±0.37); daytime high temperature of 46.6° C, and a mean temperature of 28.35° C. Our fastest finisher demonstrated a lower overall core body temperature (36.91° C) when compared with the group mean (37.49° C). In contrast to previous findings, our data show that the fastest finisher demonstrates a lower overall core body temperature. We conclude that it may be possible that a time threshold exists whereby success in longer duration events requires an ability to maintain a lower core body temperature vs. tolerating a higher core body temperature. PMID:25463692

  6. In-flight estimation of gyro noise on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) and Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, M.; Crouse, P.; Harman, R.; Leid, Terry; Davis, W.; Underwood, S.

    1994-01-01

    This paper characterizes the low-frequency noise response of the Teledyne dry rotor inertial reference unit (DRIRU) gyroscopes on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) and the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). The accuracy of spacecraft attitude estimation algorithms that use gyro data for propagating the spacecraft attitude is sensitive to gyro noise. EUVE gyro data were processed to validate a single-axis gyro noise model, which is used onboard various spacecraft. The paper addresses the potential impact of temperature effects on the gyro noise model and the overall impact on attitude determination accuracy. The power spectral density (PSD) of the gyro noise is estimated from UARS in-flight data by Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). The role of actuator dynamics on the PSD function is also discussed.

  7. Biological Impacts of Thermal Extremes: Mechanisms and Costs of Functional Responses Matter.

    PubMed

    Williams, Caroline M; Buckley, Lauren B; Sheldon, Kimberly S; Vickers, Mathew; Pörtner, Hans-Otto; Dowd, W Wesley; Gunderson, Alex R; Marshall, Katie E; Stillman, Jonathon H

    2016-07-01

    Thermal performance curves enable physiological constraints to be incorporated in predictions of biological responses to shifts in mean temperature. But do thermal performance curves adequately capture the biological impacts of thermal extremes? Organisms incur physiological damage during exposure to extremes, and also mount active compensatory responses leading to acclimatization, both of which alter thermal performance curves and determine the impact that current and future extremes have on organismal performance and fitness. Thus, these sub-lethal responses to extreme temperatures potentially shape evolution of thermal performance curves. We applied a quantitative genetic model and found that beneficial acclimatization and cumulative damage alter the extent to which thermal performance curves evolve in response to thermal extremes. The impacts of extremes on the evolution of thermal performance curves are reduced if extremes cause substantial mortality or otherwise reduce fitness differences among individuals. Further empirical research will be required to understand how responses to extremes aggregate through time and vary across life stages and processes. Such research will enable incorporating passive and active responses to sub-lethal stress when predicting the impacts of thermal extremes.

  8. Assessment of flood Response Characteristics to Urbanization and extreme flood events-Typhoons at Cheongju, Chungbuk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, HyungJoon; Lee, Hyosang; Hwang, Myunggyu; Jang, Sukhwan

    2016-04-01

    The changes of land use influence on the flood characteristics, which depend on rainfall runoff procedures in the catchment. This study assesses the changes of flood characteristics due to land use changes between 1997 and 2012. The catchment model (HEC-HMS) is calibrated with flood events of 1990's and 2000's respectively, then the design rainfall of 100, 200, 500year return period are applied to this model, which represent the catchment in 1990's and 2000's, to assess the flood peaks. Then the extreme flood events (i.e., 6 typhoon events) are applied to assess the flood responses. The results of comparison between 1990's and 2000's show that the flood peak and level of 2000's are increasing and time to peak of 2000's is decreasing comparing to those of 1990's :3% to 78% increase in flood peak, 3% in flood level and 10.2% to 16% decrease in time to peak in 100year return period flood. It is due to decreasing of the farmland area (2.18%), mountainous area (8.88%), and increasing of the urbanization of the area (5.86%). This study also estimates the responses to extreme flood events. The results of 2000's show that the increasing of the flood peak and time to peak comparing to 1990's. It indicates that the extreme rainfall is more responsible at unurbanized catchment ( 2000's), which resulting with a 11% increasing of the peak volume. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  9. Robust Estimation of Precipitation Extremes from Short-Period Regional Climate Downscales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apling, D.; Darmenova, K.; Higgins, G. J.

    2011-12-01

    The US Southwest is likely to experience significant changes in precipitation patterns in coming decades as a result of regional climate change. One serious issue is to better understand extreme precipitation events, which affect infrastructure planning, and human life and safety management. Extreme precipitation events are characterized by the maximum expectation of accumulated precipitation over a short time period, which has a long-period return over some number of years; e.g., the 100-year return of daily precipitation. These measures are statistics drawn from Extreme Value Theory, and can be challenging to accurately and reliably estimate for short data sets. Regional Climate Models (RCM) are often run for shorter decadal periods, both to economize on computational expense, and to characterize specific decadal time bands. In each case, one needs robust statistical estimation algorithms to accurately and reliably retrieve the precipitation recurrence statistics. To produce these important decision-aiding products, we added several processes to an otherwise conventional Peaks Over Threshold technique operating on the combined grid-scale and cumuliform precipitation outputs from our 12 kilometer Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) downscale of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis fields for the ten year period of 2000-2009 over the Southwest US. These processes included interleaved sub-year intermediate aggregations, correlated sample corrections, distributional tail feature extraction, and trimmed set tail fitting with jackknife error estimation. The process resulted in estimated 100-year return 24-hour accumulated precipitation expectations with accompanying error bounds, which compare well to established historical precipitation statistics.

  10. Estimation of resist sensitivity for extreme ultraviolet lithography using an electron beam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oyama, Tomoko Gowa; Oshima, Akihiro; Tagawa, Seiichi

    2016-08-01

    It is a challenge to obtain sufficient extreme ultraviolet (EUV) exposure time for fundamental research on developing a new class of high sensitivity resists for extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUVL) because there are few EUV exposure tools that are very expensive. In this paper, we introduce an easy method for predicting EUV resist sensitivity by using conventional electron beam (EB) sources. If the chemical reactions induced by two ionizing sources (EB and EUV) are the same, the required absorbed energies corresponding to each required exposure dose (sensitivity) for the EB and EUV would be almost equivalent. Based on this theory, we calculated the resist sensitivities for the EUV/soft X-ray region. The estimated sensitivities were found to be comparable to the experimentally obtained sensitivities. It was concluded that EB is a very useful exposure tool that accelerates the development of new resists and sensitivity enhancement processes for 13.5 nm EUVL and 6.x nm beyond-EUVL (BEUVL).

  11. R-tools for estimating exceedance probabilities of Envelope Curves of hydrological extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guse, Björn; Castellarin, Attilio

    2013-04-01

    Envelope curves of flood flows are classical hydrological tools that graphically summarize the current bound on our experience of extreme floods in a region. Castellarin et al. [2005] introduced Probabilistic Regional Envelope Curves (PRECs) and formulated an empirical estimator of the recurrence interval T associated with the curves themselves. PRECs can be used to estimate the T -year flood (design-flood) for any basin in a given region as a function of the catchment area alone. We present a collection of R-functions that can be used for (1) constructing the empirical envelope curve of flood flows for a given hydrological region and (2) estimating the curve's T on the basis of a mathematical representation of the cross-correlation structure of observed flood sequences. The R functions, which we tested on synthetic regional datasets of annual sequences characterized by different degrees of cross-correlation generated through Monte Carlo resampling, implement the algorithm proposed in Castellarin [2007], providing the user with straightforward means for predicting the exceedance probability 1-T associated with a regional envelope curve, and therefore the T -year flood in any ungauged basin in the region for large and very large T values. Furthermore, the algorithm can be easily coupled with other regional flood frequency analysis procedures to effectively improve the accuracy of flood quantile estimates at high T values [Guse et al., 2010], or extended to rainfall extremes for predicting extreme point-rainfall depths associated with a given duration and recurrence interval in any ungauged site within a region [Viglione et al., 2012]. References Castellarin (2007): Probabilistic envelope curves for design flood estimation at ungauged sites, Water Resour. Res., 43, W04406. Castellarin, Vogel, Matalas (2005): Probabilistic behavior of a regional envelope curve, Water Resour. Res., 41, W06018. Guse, Hofherr, Merz (2010): Introducing empirical and probabilistic regional

  12. Asian monsoon extremes and humanity's response over the past millennium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buckley, B. M.; Lieberman, V. B.; Zottoli, B.

    2012-12-01

    The first decade of the 21st century has seen significant development in the production of paleo proxies for the Asian monsoon, exemplified by the Monsoon Asian Drought Atlas that was comprised of more than 300 tree ring chronologies. Noteworthy among them is the Vietnamese cypress tree-ring record which reveals that the two worst droughts of the past 7 centuries, each more than a decade in length, coincided with the demise of the Khmer civilization at Angkor in the early 15th century CE. The 18th century was nearly as tumultuous a period across Southeast Asia, where several polities fell against a backdrop of epic decadal-scale droughts. At this time all of the region's charter states saw rapid realignment in the face of drought, famine, disease and a raft of related and unrelated social issues. Several other droughts, some more extreme but of lesser duration, punctuate the past millennium, but appear to have had little societal impact. Historical documentation is being used not only to provide corroborative evidence of tree-ring reconstructed climate extremes, but to attempt to understand the dynamics of the coupled human-natural systems involved, and to define what kinds of thresholds need to be reached before societies respond. This paleo perspective can assist our analyses of the role of climate extremes in the collapse or disruption of regional societies, a subject of increasing concern given the uncertainties surrounding projections for future climate across the highly populated areas of Asia.

  13. Contact lenses in extreme cold environments: response of rabbit corneas.

    PubMed

    Socks, J F

    1982-04-01

    Contact lenses are worn by many individuals in military and civilian populations. Anecdotal reports have described contact lenses "sticking" and "freezing" to the eye during extreme cold conditions. However, some articles indicate the advantages of wearing contact lenses in cold environments. Military operations frequently taken place in cold regions; therefore, we need to known whether contact lenses can be worn safely in extreme cold. Rabbits were fitted with hard (polymethyl methacrylate) contact lenses and exposed to -28.9 degrees C temperatures with winds up to 78 mph (125 km/hr) for 3-hr periods. The wind-chill factor in these conditions exceeded -67.8 degrees C. No effects of the cold or contact lenses were seen in 85% of the eyes. A few of the eyes, both with contact lenses and without, showed mild superficial fluorescein staining of the cornea which cleared within a few ours after exposure. Histologic examination of the corneas revealed no abnormalities attributable to the cold. Inasmuch as this study showed that rabbits wearing contact lenses in extreme cold suffered no acute deleterious effects to the eyes, the research can be expanded to include human subjects.

  14. Estimation of extreme daily precipitation: comparison between regional and geostatistical approaches.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellies, Matteo; Deidda, Roberto; Langousis, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    We study the extreme rainfall regime of the Island of Sardinia in Italy, based on annual maxima of daily precipitation. The statistical analysis is conducted using 229 daily rainfall records with at least 50 complete years of observations, collected at different sites by the Hydrological Survey of the Sardinia Region. Preliminary analysis, and the L-skewness and L-kurtosis diagrams, show that the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution model performs best in describing daily rainfall extremes. The GEV distribution parameters are estimated using the method of Probability Weighted Moments (PWM). To obtain extreme rainfall estimates at ungauged sites, while minimizing uncertainties due to sampling variability, a regional and a geostatistical approach are compared. The regional approach merges information from different gauged sites, within homogeneous regions, to obtain GEV parameter estimates at ungauged locations. The geostatistical approach infers the parameters of the GEV distribution model at locations where measurements are available, and then spatially interpolates them over the study region. In both approaches we use local rainfall means as index-rainfall. In the regional approach we define homogeneous regions by applying a hierarchical cluster analysis based on Ward's method, with L-moment ratios (i.e. L-CV and L-Skewness) as metrics. The analysis results in four contiguous regions, which satisfy the Hosking and Wallis (1997) homogeneity tests. The latter have been conducted using a Monte-Carlo approach based on a 4-parameter Kappa distribution model, fitted to each station cluster. Note that the 4-parameter Kappa model includes the GEV distribution as a sub-case, when the fourth parameter h is set to 0. In the geostatistical approach we apply kriging for uncertain data (KUD), which accounts for the error variance in local parameter estimation and, therefore, may serve as a useful tool for spatial interpolation of metrics affected by high uncertainty. In

  15. Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

    2013-12-01

    In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example

  16. A comparison of acromion marker cluster calibration methods for estimating scapular kinematics during upper extremity ergometry.

    PubMed

    Richardson, R Tyler; Nicholson, Kristen F; Rapp, Elizabeth A; Johnston, Therese E; Richards, James G

    2016-05-01

    Accurate measurement of joint kinematics is required to understand the musculoskeletal effects of a therapeutic intervention such as upper extremity (UE) ergometry. Traditional surface-based motion capture is effective for quantifying humerothoracic motion, but scapular kinematics are challenging to obtain. Methods for estimating scapular kinematics include the widely-reported acromion marker cluster (AMC) which utilizes a static calibration between the scapula and the AMC to estimate the orientation of the scapula during motion. Previous literature demonstrates that including additional calibration positions throughout the motion improves AMC accuracy for single plane motions; however this approach has not been assessed for the non-planar shoulder complex motion occurring during UE ergometry. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of single, dual, and multiple AMC calibration methods during UE ergometry. The orientations of the UE segments of 13 healthy subjects were recorded with motion capture. Scapular landmarks were palpated at eight evenly-spaced static positions around the 360° cycle. The single AMC method utilized one static calibration position to estimate scapular kinematics for the entire cycle, while the dual and multiple AMC methods used two and four static calibration positions, respectively. Scapulothoracic angles estimated by the three AMC methods were compared with scapulothoracic angles determined by palpation. The multiple AMC method produced the smallest RMS errors and was not significantly different from palpation about any axis. We recommend the multiple AMC method as a practical and accurate way to estimate scapular kinematics during UE ergometry.

  17. The Individual Consistency of Acquiescence and Extreme Response Style in Self-Report Questionnaires

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weijters, Bert; Geuens, Maggie; Schillewaert, Niels

    2010-01-01

    The severity of bias in respondents' self-reports due to acquiescence response style (ARS) and extreme response style (ERS) depends strongly on how consistent these response styles are over the course of a questionnaire. In the literature, different alternative hypotheses on response style (in)consistency circulate. Therefore, nine alternative…

  18. Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cifter, Atilla

    2011-06-01

    This paper introduces wavelet-based extreme value theory (EVT) for univariate value-at-risk estimation. Wavelets and EVT are combined for volatility forecasting to estimate a hybrid model. In the first stage, wavelets are used as a threshold in generalized Pareto distribution, and in the second stage, EVT is applied with a wavelet-based threshold. This new model is applied to two major emerging stock markets: the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and the Budapest Stock Exchange (BUX). The relative performance of wavelet-based EVT is benchmarked against the Riskmetrics-EWMA, ARMA-GARCH, generalized Pareto distribution, and conditional generalized Pareto distribution models. The empirical results show that the wavelet-based extreme value theory increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to number of violations and tail-loss tests. The superior forecasting performance of the wavelet-based EVT model is also consistent with Basel II requirements, and this new model can be used by financial institutions as well.

  19. Application of extreme learning machine for estimation of wind speed distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Mohammadi, Kasra; Tong, Chong Wen; Petković, Dalibor; Porcu, Emilio; Mostafaeipour, Ali; Ch, Sudheer; Sedaghat, Ahmad

    2016-03-01

    The knowledge of the probabilistic wind speed distribution is of particular significance in reliable evaluation of the wind energy potential and effective adoption of site specific wind turbines. Among all proposed probability density functions, the two-parameter Weibull function has been extensively endorsed and utilized to model wind speeds and express wind speed distribution in various locations. In this research work, extreme learning machine (ELM) is employed to compute the shape ( k) and scale ( c) factors of Weibull distribution function. The developed ELM model is trained and tested based upon two widely successful methods used to estimate k and c parameters. The efficiency and accuracy of ELM is compared against support vector machine, artificial neural network and genetic programming for estimating the same Weibull parameters. The survey results reveal that applying ELM approach is eventuated in attaining further precision for estimation of both Weibull parameters compared to other methods evaluated. Mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute bias error and root mean square error for k are 8.4600 %, 0.1783 and 0.2371, while for c are 0.2143 %, 0.0118 and 0.0192 m/s, respectively. In conclusion, it is conclusively found that application of ELM is particularly promising as an alternative method to estimate Weibull k and c factors.

  20. Effects of Arm Ergometry Exercise on the Reaction, Movement and Response Times of the Lower Extremities.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Israel, Richard G.

    A study determined the effects of fatigue produced in the upper extremities on the reaction time, movement time, and response time of the lower extremities in 30 male subjects, 19-25 years old. Each subject participated in a 10 trial practice session one day prior to the experiment and immediately preceding the pre-test. The pre-test consisted of…

  1. Regularized joint inverse estimation of extreme rainfall amounts in ungauged coastal basins of El Salvador

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedel, M.J.

    2008-01-01

    A regularized joint inverse procedure is presented and used to estimate the magnitude of extreme rainfall events in ungauged coastal river basins of El Salvador: Paz, Jiboa, Grande de San Miguel, and Goascoran. Since streamflow measurements reflect temporal and spatial rainfall information, peak-flow discharge is hypothesized to represent a similarity measure suitable for regionalization. To test this hypothesis, peak-flow discharge values determined from streamflow recurrence information (10-year, 25-year, and 100-year) collected outside the study basins are used to develop regional (country-wide) regression equations. Peak-flow discharge derived from these equations together with preferred spatial parameter relations as soft prior information are used to constrain the simultaneous calibration of 20 tributary basin models. The nonlinear range of uncertainty in estimated parameter values (1 curve number and 3 recurrent rainfall amounts for each model) is determined using an inverse calibration-constrained Monte Carlo approach. Cumulative probability distributions for rainfall amounts indicate differences among basins for a given return period and an increase in magnitude and range among basins with increasing return interval. Comparison of the estimated median rainfall amounts for all return periods were reasonable but larger (3.2-26%) than rainfall estimates computed using the frequency-duration (traditional) approach and individual rain gauge data. The observed 25-year recurrence rainfall amount at La Hachadura in the Paz River basin during Hurricane Mitch (1998) is similar in value to, but outside and slightly less than, the estimated rainfall confidence limits. The similarity in joint inverse and traditionally computed rainfall events, however, suggests that the rainfall observation may likely be due to under-catch and not model bias. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007.

  2. Extreme thermal noxious stimuli induce pain responses in zebrafish larvae.

    PubMed

    Malafoglia, Valentina; Colasanti, Marco; Raffaeli, William; Balciunas, Darius; Giordano, Antonio; Bellipanni, Gianfranco

    2014-03-01

    Exposing tissues to extreme high or low temperature leads to burns. Burned animals sustain several types of damage, from the disruption of the tissue to degeneration of axons projecting through muscle and skin. Such damage causes pain due to both inflammation and axonal degeneration (neuropathic-like pain). Thus, the approach to cure and alleviate the symptoms of burns must be twofold: rebuilding the tissue that has been destroyed and alleviating the pain derived from the burns. While tissue regeneration techniques have been developed, less is known on the treatment of the induced pain. Thus, appropriate animal models are necessary for the development of the best treatment for pain induced in burned tissues. We have developed a methodology in the zebrafish aimed to produce a new animal model for the study of pain induced by burns. Here, we show that two events linked to the onset of burn-induced inflammation and neuropathic-like pain in mammals, degeneration of axons innervating the affected tissues and over-expression of specific genes in sensory tissues, are conserved from zebrafish to mammals.

  3. Use of heat to estimate streambed fluxes during extreme hydrologic events

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barlow, J.R.B.; Coupe, R.H.

    2009-01-01

    Using heat as a tracer, quantitative estimates of streambed fluxes and the critical stage for flow reversal were calculated for high-flow events that occurred on the Bogue Phalia (a tributary of the Mississippi River) following the 2005 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. In June 2005, piezometers were installed in the Bogue Phalia upstream from the stream gage near Leland, Mississippi, to monitor temperature. Even with the hurricanes, precipitation in the Bogue Phalia Basin for the months of June to October 2005 was below normal, and consequently, streamflow was below the long-term average. Temperature profiles from the piezometers indicate that the Bogue Phalia was a gaining stream during most of this time, but relatively static streambed temperatures suggested long-term data was warranted for heat-based estimates of flux. However, the hurricanes caused a pair of sharp rises in stream stage over short periods of time, increasing the potential for rapid heat-based modeling and for identification of the critical stage for flow reversal into the streambed. Heat-based modeling fits of simulated-to-measured sediment temperatures show that once a critical stage was surpassed, flow direction reversed into the streambed. Results of this study demonstrate the ability to constrain estimates of streambed water flux and the critical stage of flow reversal, with little available groundwater head data, by using heat as a tracer during extreme stage events. copyright. Published in 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  4. Using Remote Sensing to Understand the Joint Probability of Extreme Rainfall and Flood Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, D. B.; Mantilla, R.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    Floods are the products of complex interactions between the highly variable spacetime structure of extreme rainfall with land surface and drainage network features at various scales. Precise description of these interactions has proven elusive, mainly due to the lack of sufficient spacetime rainfall information and relatively short and sparse observational records. Rainfall remote-sensing data archives are now reaching sufficient length to examine these interactions in greater detail. Long-standing precipitation-based flood hazard estimation practices such as design storms and Probable Maximum Precipitation rely on simplified assumptions to describe the interactions between extreme rainfall and flood response. In this study, the validity of these assumptions are explored using RainyDay, a probabilistic stochastic storm transposition framework developed at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center for generating large numbers of rainfall "scenarios" using rainfall remote sensing data, each with realistic probability, intensity, and spacetime structure. RainyDay is coupled with NCEP Stage IV multisensor precipitation data and the Iowa Flood Center Model, an uncalibrated multiscale distributed hydrologic modeling platform. We study the relationship between simulated rainfall and peak discharge probability and intensity for a wide range of exceedance probabilities and for a number of nested subwatersheds of Turkey River in Northeastern Iowa, ranging in drainage area from 10 km2 to 4300 km2. The results demonstrate some interesting implications for the relationship between Probable Maximum Precipitation and the Probable Maximum Flood at a range of basin scales and highlight possible deficiencies in the standard approaches to compute these quantities. Satellite-based precipitation estimates with global coverage allow the extension of such understanding to data-poor regions.

  5. Using Annual Data to Estimate the Public Health Impact of Extreme Temperatures.

    PubMed

    Goggins, William B; Yang, Chunyuh; Hokama, Tomiko; Law, Lewis S K; Chan, Emily Y Y

    2015-07-01

    Short-term associations between both hot and cold ambient temperatures and higher mortality have been found worldwide. Few studies have examined these associations on longer time scales. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated for 1976-2012 for Hong Kong SAR, People's Republic of China, defining "annual" time periods in 2 ways: from May through April of the following year and from November through October. Annual frequency and severity of extreme temperatures were summarized by using a degree-days approach with extreme heat expressed as annual degree-days >29.3°C and cold as annual degree-days <27.5°C. For example, a day with a mean temperature of 25.0°C contributes 2.5 cold degree-days to the annual total. Generalized additive models were used to estimate the association between annual hot and cold degree-days and the ASMR, with adjustment for long-term trends. Increases of 10 hot or 200 cold degree-days in an annual period, the approximate interquartile ranges for these variables, were significantly (all P's ≤ 0.011) associated with 1.9% or 3.1% increases, respectively, in the annual ASMR for the May-April analyses and with 2.2% or 2.8% increases, respectively, in the November-October analyses. Associations were stronger for noncancer and elderly mortality. Mortality increases associated with extreme temperature are not simply due to short-term forward displacement of deaths that would have occurred anyway within a few weeks. PMID:26009315

  6. Using Annual Data to Estimate the Public Health Impact of Extreme Temperatures.

    PubMed

    Goggins, William B; Yang, Chunyuh; Hokama, Tomiko; Law, Lewis S K; Chan, Emily Y Y

    2015-07-01

    Short-term associations between both hot and cold ambient temperatures and higher mortality have been found worldwide. Few studies have examined these associations on longer time scales. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated for 1976-2012 for Hong Kong SAR, People's Republic of China, defining "annual" time periods in 2 ways: from May through April of the following year and from November through October. Annual frequency and severity of extreme temperatures were summarized by using a degree-days approach with extreme heat expressed as annual degree-days >29.3°C and cold as annual degree-days <27.5°C. For example, a day with a mean temperature of 25.0°C contributes 2.5 cold degree-days to the annual total. Generalized additive models were used to estimate the association between annual hot and cold degree-days and the ASMR, with adjustment for long-term trends. Increases of 10 hot or 200 cold degree-days in an annual period, the approximate interquartile ranges for these variables, were significantly (all P's ≤ 0.011) associated with 1.9% or 3.1% increases, respectively, in the annual ASMR for the May-April analyses and with 2.2% or 2.8% increases, respectively, in the November-October analyses. Associations were stronger for noncancer and elderly mortality. Mortality increases associated with extreme temperature are not simply due to short-term forward displacement of deaths that would have occurred anyway within a few weeks.

  7. A New Approach to Extreme Value Estimation Applicable to a Wide Variety of Random Variables

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holland, Frederic A., Jr.

    1997-01-01

    Designing reliable structures requires an estimate of the maximum and minimum values (i.e., strength and load) that may be encountered in service. Yet designs based on very extreme values (to insure safety) can result in extra material usage and hence, uneconomic systems. In aerospace applications, severe over-design cannot be tolerated making it almost mandatory to design closer to the assumed limits of the design random variables. The issue then is predicting extreme values that are practical, i.e. neither too conservative or non-conservative. Obtaining design values by employing safety factors is well known to often result in overly conservative designs and. Safety factor values have historically been selected rather arbitrarily, often lacking a sound rational basis. To answer the question of how safe a design needs to be has lead design theorists to probabilistic and statistical methods. The so-called three-sigma approach is one such method and has been described as the first step in utilizing information about the data dispersion. However, this method is based on the assumption that the random variable is dispersed symmetrically about the mean and is essentially limited to normally distributed random variables. Use of this method can therefore result in unsafe or overly conservative design allowables if the common assumption of normality is incorrect.

  8. Estimating return periods of extreme values from relatively short time series of winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonasson, Kristjan; Agustsson, Halfdan; Rognvaldsson, Olafur; Arfeuille, Gilles

    2013-04-01

    An important factor for determining the prospect of individual wind farm sites is the frequency of extreme winds at hub height. Here, extreme winds are defined as the value of the highest 10 minutes averaged wind speed with a 50 year return period, i.e. annual exceeding probability of 2% (Rodrigo, 2010). A frequently applied method to estimate winds in the lowest few hundred meters above ground is to extrapolate observed 10-meter winds logarithmically to higher altitudes. Recent study by Drechsel et al. (2012) showed however that this methodology is not as accurate as interpolating simulated results from the global ECMWF numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to the desired height. Observations of persistent low level jets near Colima in SW-Mexico also show that the logarithmic approach can give highly inaccurate results for some regions (Arfeuille et al., 2012). To address these shortcomings of limited, and/or poorly representative, observations and extrapolations of winds one can use NWP models to dynamically scale down relatively coarse resolution atmospheric analysis. In the case of limited computing resources one has typically to make a compromise between spatial resolution and the duration of the simulated period, both of which can limit the quality of the wind farm siting. A common method to estimate maximum winds is to fit an extreme value distribution (e.g. Gumbel, gev or Pareto) to the maximum values of each year of available data, or the tail of these values. If data are only available for a short period, e.g. 10 or 15 years, then this will give a rather inaccurate estimate. It is possible to deal with this problem by utilizing monthly or weekly maxima, but this introduces new problems: seasonal variation, autocorrelation of neighboring values, and increased discrepancy between data and fitted distribution. We introduce a new method to estimate return periods of extreme values of winds at hub height from relatively short time series of winds, simulated

  9. A Green Planet versus a Desert World: Estimating the Effect of Vegetation Extremes on the Atmosphere.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraedrich, Klaus; Kleidon, Axel; Lunkeit, Frank

    1999-10-01

    The effect of vegetation extremes on the general circulation is estimated by two atmospheric GCM simulations using global desert and forest boundary conditions over land. The difference between the climates of a `green planet' and a `desert world' is dominated by the changes of the hydrological cycle, which is intensified substantially. Enhanced evapotranspiration over land reduces the near-surface temperatures; enhanced precipitation leads to a warmer mid- and upper troposphere extending from the subtropics (induced by ITCZ, monsoon, and Hadley cell dynamics) to the midlatitudes (over the cyclogenesis area of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks). These regional changes of the surface water and energy balances, and of the atmospheric circulation, have potential impact on the ocean and the atmospheric greenhouse.

  10. Estimates for production of radioisotopes of medical interest at Extreme Light Infrastructure - Nuclear Physics facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Wen; Bobeica, Mariana; Gheorghe, Ioana; Filipescu, Dan M.; Niculae, Dana; Balabanski, Dimiter L.

    2016-01-01

    We report Monte Carlo simulations of the production of radioisotopes of medical interest through photoneutron reactions using the high-brilliance γ-beam of the Extreme Light Infrastructure - Nuclear Physics (ELI-NP) facility. The specific activity for three benchmark radioisotopes, 99Mo/99Tc, 225Ra/225Ac and 186Re, was obtained as a function of target geometry, irradiation time and γ-beam energy. Optimized conditions for the generation of these radioisotopes of medical interest with the ELI-NP γ-beams were discussed. We estimated that a saturation specific activity of the order of 1-2 mCi/g can be achieved for thin targets with about one gram of mass considering a γ-beam flux of 10^{11} photons/s. Based on these results, we suggest that the ELI-NP facility can provide a unique possibility for the production of radioisotopes in sufficient quantities for nuclear medicine research.

  11. Spall Response of Tantalum at Extreme Strain-Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hahn, Eric; Germann, Tim; Meyers, Marc

    Strain-rate and microstructure play a significant role in the ultimate mechanical response of materials. Using non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, we characterize the ductile tensile failure of single and nanocrystalline tantalum over multiple orders of magnitude of strain-rate. This comparison is extended to over nine orders of magnitude including experimental results from resent laser shock campaigns. Spall strength primarily follows a power law dependence with strain-rate over this extensive range. In all cases, voids nucleate heterogeneously at pre-existing defects. Predictions based on traditional theory suggest that, as strain-rate increases, tensile strength should increase. Alternatively, as grain size decreases, tensile strength may decrease due to an increased propensity to fail at a growing volume fraction of grain boundaries. Strain-rate and grain size dictate void nucleation sites by changing the type and density of available defects: vacancies, dislocations, twins, and grain boundaries.

  12. Extremism reduces conflict arousal and increases values affirmation in response to meaning violations.

    PubMed

    Sleegers, Willem W A; Proulx, Travis; van Beest, Ilja

    2015-05-01

    In the social psychological threat-compensation literature, there is an apparent contradiction whereby relatively extreme beliefs both decrease markers of physiological arousal following meaning violations, and increase the values affirmation behaviors understood as a palliative responses to this arousal. We hypothesize that this is due to the differential impact of measuring extremism on behavioral inhibition and approach systems following meaning violations, whereby extremism both reduces markers of conflict arousal (BIS) and increases values affirmation (BAS) unrelated to this initial arousal. Using pupil dilation as a proxy for immediate conflict arousal, we found that the same meaning violation (anomalous playing cards) evoked greater pupil dilation, and that this pupillary reaction was diminished in participants who earlier reported extreme beliefs. We also found that reporting extreme beliefs was associated with greater affirmation of an unrelated meaning framework, where this affirmation was unrelated to physiological markers of conflict arousal. PMID:25857674

  13. Investigation of Atmospheric Modelling Framework for Better Reconstruction on Historical Extreme Precipitation Event in PMP Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, X.; Hossain, F.; Leung, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    During May 1-2, 2010, a record-breaking storm hit Nashville, and caused huge humanity and societal loss. It raises the importance of forecasting/reconstructing these types of extreme weather systems once again, in the meanwhile providing an excellent case for such atmospheric modelling studies. However, earlier studies suggest that successful reconstruction of this event depends on and is sensitive to a number of model options, making it difficult to establish a better model framework with more confidence. In this study we employed the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to investigate how this extreme precipitation event is sensitive to the model configuration, and identified options that would produce better results. We tested several combinations of modelling grid sizes together with initial/boundary conditions (IC/BC). At different grid sizes, we conducted a set of tests on various combinations of microphysics (Morrison, new Thompson and WSM5) and cumulus process (Kain-Fristch, Grell-Devenyi and Grell-Freitas) parameterization schemes. The model results were intensively evaluated under bias analysis as well as other metrics (probability of detection, bias, false alerts, HSS, ETS). The evaluation suggests that in general, simulation results benefit from finer model grids (5km). At 5km level, NCEP2 or NAM IC/BCs are more representative for the 2010 Nashville storm. There are no universally good parameterization schemes, but the WSM5 microphysics scheme, Kain-Fristch and Grell-Freitas cumulus schemes are recommended over other tested schemes. These better schemes would help to make better estimation of PMP in the region.

  14. Changing precipitation extremes in a warming climate: A basis for design flood estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-04-01

    The potential for increasing intensity of future rainfall events has significant implications for flooding and the design of infrastructure. However the questions of how precipitation will change in the future, how important these changes are to flooding, and how engineers incorporate these changes into hydrologic design remain as open questions. In the absence of reliable point based estimates of how precipitation will change, many studies investigate the historical relationship between rainfall intensity and temperature as a proxy for what may happen in a warmer climate. Much of the research to date has focussed on changing precipitation intensity, however, temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation are just as important. Here we link higher temperatures to changes in temporal and spatial patterns of extreme precipitation events. We show, using observed high quality precipitation records from Australia covering all major climatic zones, that storms are intensifying in both time and space resulting in a greater potential for flooding especially in urban locales around the world. Given that precipitation and antecedent conditions are changing, and, the impacts to flooding are significant, methods of incorporating these changes in catchment modelling are required. Continuous simulation offers a natural flexibility to incorporate the many correlated changes in precipitation that may occur in a future climate. An argument for such a framework using existing continuous simulation alternatives is articulated in concluding this presentation.

  15. Flat field response of the microchannel plate detectors used on the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vallerga, J. V.; Gibson, J. L.; Siegmund, O. H. W.; Vedder, P. W.

    1989-01-01

    The results of the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flat field calibrations of two of the flight detectors to be flown on the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer Satellite (EUVE) are presented. Images of about 40 million detected events binned 512 by 512 are sufficient to show microchannel plate fixed pattern noise such as hexagonal microchannel multifiber bundle interfaces, 'dead' spots, edge distortion, and differential nonlinearity. Differences due to photocathode material and dependencies on EUV wavelength are also described. Over large spatial scales, the detector response is flat to better than 10 percent of the mean response, but, at spatial scales less than 1 mm, the variations from the mean can be as large as 20 percent.

  16. Consistency of Response Patterns in Different Estimation Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wong, Terry Tin-Yau; Ho, Connie Suk-Han; Tang, Joey

    2016-01-01

    The current study aimed at addressing two issues concerning children's estimation performance: (1) to investigate whether the log-to-linear framework or the proportional judgment framework provided a better explanation of children's estimation patterns, and (2) to examine the consistency of response patterns in different estimation tasks. A sample…

  17. Multidimensional Item Response Theory Parameter Estimation with Nonsimple Structure Items

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finch, Holmes

    2011-01-01

    Estimation of multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) model parameters can be carried out using the normal ogive with unweighted least squares estimation with the normal-ogive harmonic analysis robust method (NOHARM) software. Previous simulation research has demonstrated that this approach does yield accurate and efficient estimates of item…

  18. Nonparametric Item Response Curve Estimation with Correction for Measurement Error

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guo, Hongwen; Sinharay, Sandip

    2011-01-01

    Nonparametric or kernel regression estimation of item response curves (IRCs) is often used in item analysis in testing programs. These estimates are biased when the observed scores are used as the regressor because the observed scores are contaminated by measurement error. Accuracy of this estimation is a concern theoretically and operationally.…

  19. Emergency Response to and Preparedness for Extreme Weather Events and Environmental Changes in China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Li; Liao, Yongfeng; Yang, Linsheng; Li, Hairong; Ye, Bixiong; Wang, Wuyi

    2016-03-01

    China has achieved impressive rapid economic growth over the past 30 years but accompanied by significant extreme weather events and environmental changes caused by global change and overfast urbanization. Using the absolute hazards index (AHI), we assessed the spatial distribution patterns and related health effects of 4 major extreme natural disasters, including drought, floods (landslides, mudslides), hails, and typhoons from 2000 to 2011 at the provincial level in China. The results showed that (1) central and south China were the most affected by the 4 natural disasters, and north China suffered less; (2) the provinces with higher AHI suffered most from total death, missing people, collapse, and emergently relocated population; (3) the present health emergency response system to disasters in China mainly lacks a multidisciplinary approach. In the concluding section of this article, suggestions on preparedness and rapid response to extreme health events from environmental changes are proposed.

  20. Emergency Response to and Preparedness for Extreme Weather Events and Environmental Changes in China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Li; Liao, Yongfeng; Yang, Linsheng; Li, Hairong; Ye, Bixiong; Wang, Wuyi

    2016-03-01

    China has achieved impressive rapid economic growth over the past 30 years but accompanied by significant extreme weather events and environmental changes caused by global change and overfast urbanization. Using the absolute hazards index (AHI), we assessed the spatial distribution patterns and related health effects of 4 major extreme natural disasters, including drought, floods (landslides, mudslides), hails, and typhoons from 2000 to 2011 at the provincial level in China. The results showed that (1) central and south China were the most affected by the 4 natural disasters, and north China suffered less; (2) the provinces with higher AHI suffered most from total death, missing people, collapse, and emergently relocated population; (3) the present health emergency response system to disasters in China mainly lacks a multidisciplinary approach. In the concluding section of this article, suggestions on preparedness and rapid response to extreme health events from environmental changes are proposed. PMID:25246501

  1. Cardiovascular Responses to Psychosocial Stress Reflect Motivation State in Adults Born at Extremely Low Birth Weight.

    PubMed

    Mathewson, Karen J; Pyhälä, Riikka; Hovi, Petteri; Räikkönen, Katri; Van Lieshout, Ryan J; Boyle, Michael H; Saigal, Saroj; Morrison, Katherine M; Kajantie, Eero; Schmidt, Louis A

    2015-01-01

    Background. Adults born extremely preterm appear to have more difficulty managing the stresses of early adulthood than their term-born peers. Objective. To examine the effects of being born at extremely low birth weight (ELBW; birth weight < 1000 g) versus at full term on cardiovascular responses to stress. Method. Cardiovascular responses were elicited during administration of a widely used laboratory stressor, the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST). Results. Term-born adults exhibited a larger decrease in total peripheral resistance and larger increase in cardiac output for TSST performance, reflecting greater resilience, than did ELBW adults. Furthermore, in ELBW participants but not controls, cardiovascular responses were correlated with anxiety, suggesting that their responses reflected feelings of stress. Conclusions. Skills-training and practice with relevant stressors may be necessary to increase the personal resources of ELBW participants for managing stress as they transition to adulthood. PMID:27335948

  2. AN OVERVIEW OF TOOL FOR RESPONSE ACTION COST ESTIMATING (TRACE)

    SciTech Connect

    FERRIES SR; KLINK KL; OSTAPKOWICZ B

    2012-01-30

    Tools and techniques that provide improved performance and reduced costs are important to government programs, particularly in current times. An opportunity for improvement was identified for preparation of cost estimates used to support the evaluation of response action alternatives. As a result, CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company has developed Tool for Response Action Cost Estimating (TRACE). TRACE is a multi-page Microsoft Excel{reg_sign} workbook developed to introduce efficiencies into the timely and consistent production of cost estimates for response action alternatives. This tool combines costs derived from extensive site-specific runs of commercially available remediation cost models with site-specific and estimator-researched and derived costs, providing the best estimating sources available. TRACE also provides for common quantity and key parameter links across multiple alternatives, maximizing ease of updating estimates and performing sensitivity analyses, and ensuring consistency.

  3. Performance evaluation of TMPA version 7 estimates for precipitation and its extremes in Circum-Bohai-Sea region, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Dejuan; Zhang, Hua; Li, Ruize

    2016-09-01

    Precipitation and its extremes are of significance for drought and flood warning and monitoring. This study evaluates the capability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 V7 to detect rainfall events, especially extreme precipitation events, using gauge observations for the period 1998-2012 over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, a mid-altitude and semi-humid monsoon area. The results show that 3B42 V7 performs better at monthly and annual scales than at a daily scale. Spatially or seasonally, the rainfall pattern is more effectively captured by 3B42 V7 for the wet region or season than for the dry region or season. 3B42 V7 displays a positive relative bias in most areas, and the largest is situated in high latitude region, while negative relative bias is found at coastal regions. 3B42 V7 tends to overestimate at low and middle rainfall intensity (RI) ranges (RI <50 mm/day) but underestimate at high RI range (RI ≥50 mm/day). Overall, the total rainfall amount (PRETOT) and extreme precipitation amount (EPRETOT, above 95th percentile of daily rainfall) are slightly overestimated by 3B42 V7, while EPRETOT exhibits a lower correlation with observations than PRETOT does. The relative root mean square error (RMSE) are higher than 50 % relative to rain gauges for eight extreme precipitation indices except the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), demonstrating that extreme precipitation estimates of 3B42 V7 are generally unreliable. The improvement of 3B42 V7 in capturing extreme precipitation events is anticipated through extensive efforts for its wide range of climate and hydrological applications. Overall, this study provides an evaluation of the quality of TMPA 3B42 V7 in estimating precipitation and its extremes in a mid-altitude and semi-humid monsoon region.

  4. Statistical estimation of extreme ocean waves over the eastern Canadian shelf from 30-year numerical wave simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Lanli; Sheng, Jinyu

    2015-11-01

    Reliable estimation of extreme ocean surface gravity waves is important for many scientific and practical issues. In this study, WAVEWATCHIII is used to simulate wave conditions over the eastern Canadian shelf (ECS) for the 30-year period, 1979-2008. The wave model is forced by the 6-hourly winds and ice cover taken from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). A parametric vortex is inserted into the CFSR winds to better represent surface winds associated with tropical storms or hurricanes. The model performance in simulating the bulk significant wave height is assessed by comparing model results with wave observations at 12 buoy stations over the ECS. The peaks-over-threshold method is used to estimate the extreme significant wave heights from 30-year wave simulations. The estimated extreme waves with the 50-year return period over the ECS feature large wave heights of more than 12 m in the offshore deep waters and about 8-12 m over the open shelf waters of the ECS. By comparison, the 50-year extreme waves are moderate and 7 m or less in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and inner Gulf of Maine.

  5. Photosynthesis in extreme environments: responses to different light regimes in the Antarctic alga Koliella antarctica.

    PubMed

    La Rocca, Nicoletta; Sciuto, Katia; Meneghesso, Andrea; Moro, Isabella; Rascio, Nicoletta; Morosinotto, Tomas

    2015-04-01

    Antarctic algae play a fundamental role in polar ecosystem thanks to their ability to grow in an extreme environment characterized by low temperatures and variable illumination. Here, for prolonged periods, irradiation is extremely low and algae must be able to harvest light as efficiently as possible. On the other side, at low temperatures even dim irradiances can saturate photosynthesis and drive to the formation of reactive oxygen species. Colonization of this extreme environment necessarily required the optimization of photosynthesis regulation mechanisms by algal organisms. In order to investigate these adaptations we analyzed the time course of physiological and morphological responses to different irradiances in Koliella antarctica, a green microalga isolated from Ross Sea (Antarctica). Koliella antarctica not only modulates cell morphology and composition of its photosynthetic apparatus on a long-term acclimation, but also shows the ability of a very fast response to light fluctuations. Koliella antarctica controls the activity of two xanthophyll cycles. The first, involving lutein epoxide and lutein, may be important for the growth under very low irradiances. The second, involving conversion of violaxanthin to antheraxanthin and zeaxanthin, is relevant to induce a fast and particularly strong non-photochemical quenching, when the alga is exposed to higher light intensities. Globally K. antarctica thus shows the ability to activate a palette of responses of the photosynthetic apparatus optimized for survival in its natural extreme environment.

  6. Plant phenological responses to extreme events - A long term perspective from the Chihuahuan Desert

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Browning, D. M.; Peters, D. P.; Anderson, J.; Yao, J.

    2011-12-01

    Arid and semi-arid regions of the southwestern USA are especially sensitive to changes in temperature as well as drought frequency and intensity. Timing of periodic life cycle events (i.e., phenology) is an integrated and salient indicator of plant responses to climate change. We examine an 18-year dataset of monthly observations of plant phenology for two species of perennial grasses and a deciduous shrub (honey mesquite) distributed across three upland grassland sites and three mesquite-dominated sites on the Jornada Basin USDA-LTER in southern New Mexico, USA. Precipitation is highly variable between years and across space. Long-term phenology data collection spanned a multi-year drought (1994-2003) followed by a sequence of years with average to very high rainfall (2004 - 2008). Our objective was to compare and contrast responses to extreme dry and wet cycles in the timing and duration of first leaf and fruit production for two grasses (Bouteloua eriopoda [black grama], Sporobolus flexuosus [mesa dropseed]) with one co-existing shrub that has displaced grasses in this system (Prosopis glandulosa [honey mesquite]). Monthly field observations yield estimates of phenological status and abundance for 18 growing seasons from 1993 to 2010. All three species most commonly initiated new growth prior to onset of the monsoon rains (March or April). Timing of first growth for mesquite was less variable (standard deviation = 0.47) than for black grama (SD = 1.42) and mesa dropseed (SD = 1.22) grasses. Initial growth for grasses was delayed to September in 2006 following twelve months of deficit values for PDSI. The appearance of first fruit for grasses occurred consistently in August or September, although the number of plants producing fruit was highly variable from year to year. The largest numbers of fruit-bearing grasses were observed in late fall 2008 in response to heavy monsoon rains in 2006 and 2008. Mesquite demonstrated remarkable synchrony in the production of

  7. Effect of Variable Lower Extremity Immobilization Devices on Emergency Brake Response Driving Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Sansosti, Laura E; Rocha, Zinnia M; Lawrence, Matthew W; Meyr, Andrew J

    2016-01-01

    The effect of lower extremity pathologic features and surgical intervention on automobile driving function has been a topic of contemporary interest in the orthopedic medical literature. The objective of the present case-control investigation was to assess 3 driving outcomes (i.e., mean emergency brake response time, frequency of abnormally delayed brake responses, and frequency of inaccurate brake responses) in a group of participants with 3 variable footwear conditions (i.e., regular shoe gear, surgical shoe, and walking boot). The driving performances of 25 participants without active right-sided lower extremity pathology were evaluated using a computerized driving simulator. Both the surgical shoe (0.611 versus 0.575 second; p < .001) and the walking boot (0.736 versus 0.575 second; p < .001) demonstrated slower mean brake response times compared with the control shoe gear. Both the surgical shoe (18.5% versus 2.5%; p < .001) and the walking boot (55.5% versus 2.5%; p < .001) demonstrated more frequent abnormally delayed brake responses compared with the control shoe gear. The walking boot (18.0% versus 2.0%; p < .001) demonstrated more frequent inaccurate brake responses compared with the control shoe gear. However, the surgical shoe (4.0% versus 2.0%; p = .3808) did not demonstrate a difference compared with the control shoe gear. The results of the present investigation provide physicians working with the lower extremity with a better understanding on how to assess the risk and appropriately advise their patients who have been prescribed lower extremity immobilization devices with respect to the safe operation of an automobile. PMID:27445123

  8. Prediction of Ship Response Statistics in Extreme Seas Using Model Tests Data and Numerical Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Bingjie; Bitner-Gregersen, Elzbieta Maria; Sun, Hui; Block Helmers, Jens

    2013-04-01

    Earlier investigations have indicated that proper prediction of nonlinear loads and responses due to nonlinear waves is important for ship safety in extreme seas. However, the nonlinear loads and responses in extreme seas have not been sufficiently investigated yet, particularly when rogue waves are considered. A question remains whether the existing linear codes can predict nonlinear loads and responses with a satisfactory accuracy and how large the deviations from linear predictions are. To indicate it response statistics have been studied based on the model tests carried out with a LNG tanker in the towing tank of the Technical University of Berlin (TUB), and compared with the statistics derived from numerical simulations using the DNV code WASIM. It is a potential code for wave-ship interaction based on 3D Panel method, which can perform both linear and nonlinear simulation. The numerical simulations with WASIM and the model tests in extreme and rogue waves have been performed. The analysis of ship motions (heave and pitch) and bending moments, in both regular and irregular waves, is performed. The results from the linear and nonlinear simulations are compared with experimental data to indicate the impact of wave non-linearity on loads and response calculations when the code based on the Rankine Panel Method is used. The study shows that nonlinearities may have significant effect on extreme motions and bending moment generated by strongly nonlinear waves. The effect of water depth on ship responses is also demonstrated using numerical simulations. Uncertainties related to the results are discussed, giving particular attention to sampling variability.

  9. Sexual dimorphism in epigenomic responses of stem cells to extreme fetal growth.

    PubMed

    Delahaye, Fabien; Wijetunga, N Ari; Heo, Hye J; Tozour, Jessica N; Zhao, Yong Mei; Greally, John M; Einstein, Francine H

    2014-10-10

    Extreme fetal growth is associated with increased susceptibility to a range of adult diseases through an unknown mechanism of cellular memory. We tested whether heritable epigenetic processes in long-lived CD34(+) haematopoietic stem/progenitor cells showed evidence for re-programming associated with the extremes of fetal growth. Here we show that both fetal growth restriction and over-growth are associated with global shifts towards DNA hypermethylation, targeting cis-regulatory elements in proximity to genes involved in glucose homeostasis and stem cell function. We find a sexually dimorphic response; intrauterine growth restriction is associated with substantially greater epigenetic dysregulation in males, whereas large for gestational age growth predominantly affects females. The findings are consistent with extreme fetal growth interacting with variable fetal susceptibility to influence cellular ageing and metabolic characteristics through epigenetic mechanisms, potentially generating biomarkers that could identify infants at higher risk for chronic disease later in life.

  10. Sexual dimorphism in epigenomic responses of stem cells to extreme fetal growth.

    PubMed

    Delahaye, Fabien; Wijetunga, N Ari; Heo, Hye J; Tozour, Jessica N; Zhao, Yong Mei; Greally, John M; Einstein, Francine H

    2014-01-01

    Extreme fetal growth is associated with increased susceptibility to a range of adult diseases through an unknown mechanism of cellular memory. We tested whether heritable epigenetic processes in long-lived CD34(+) haematopoietic stem/progenitor cells showed evidence for re-programming associated with the extremes of fetal growth. Here we show that both fetal growth restriction and over-growth are associated with global shifts towards DNA hypermethylation, targeting cis-regulatory elements in proximity to genes involved in glucose homeostasis and stem cell function. We find a sexually dimorphic response; intrauterine growth restriction is associated with substantially greater epigenetic dysregulation in males, whereas large for gestational age growth predominantly affects females. The findings are consistent with extreme fetal growth interacting with variable fetal susceptibility to influence cellular ageing and metabolic characteristics through epigenetic mechanisms, potentially generating biomarkers that could identify infants at higher risk for chronic disease later in life. PMID:25300954

  11. Urbanization, Extreme Events, and Health: The Case for Systems Approaches in Mitigation, Management, and Response.

    PubMed

    Siri, José Gabriel; Newell, Barry; Proust, Katrina; Capon, Anthony

    2016-03-01

    Extreme events, both natural and anthropogenic, increasingly affect cities in terms of economic losses and impacts on health and well-being. Most people now live in cities, and Asian cities, in particular, are experiencing growth on unprecedented scales. Meanwhile, the economic and health consequences of climate-related events are worsening, a trend projected to continue. Urbanization, climate change and other geophysical and social forces interact with urban systems in ways that give rise to complex and in many cases synergistic relationships. Such effects may be mediated by location, scale, density, or connectivity, and also involve feedbacks and cascading outcomes. In this context, traditional, siloed, reductionist approaches to understanding and dealing with extreme events are unlikely to be adequate. Systems approaches to mitigation, management and response for extreme events offer a more effective way forward. Well-managed urban systems can decrease risk and increase resilience in the face of such events.

  12. Urbanization, Extreme Events, and Health: The Case for Systems Approaches in Mitigation, Management, and Response.

    PubMed

    Siri, José Gabriel; Newell, Barry; Proust, Katrina; Capon, Anthony

    2016-03-01

    Extreme events, both natural and anthropogenic, increasingly affect cities in terms of economic losses and impacts on health and well-being. Most people now live in cities, and Asian cities, in particular, are experiencing growth on unprecedented scales. Meanwhile, the economic and health consequences of climate-related events are worsening, a trend projected to continue. Urbanization, climate change and other geophysical and social forces interact with urban systems in ways that give rise to complex and in many cases synergistic relationships. Such effects may be mediated by location, scale, density, or connectivity, and also involve feedbacks and cascading outcomes. In this context, traditional, siloed, reductionist approaches to understanding and dealing with extreme events are unlikely to be adequate. Systems approaches to mitigation, management and response for extreme events offer a more effective way forward. Well-managed urban systems can decrease risk and increase resilience in the face of such events. PMID:26219559

  13. Contingenet Productivity Responses to More Extreme Rainfall Regimes Across a Grassland Biome

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heisler-White, J. L.; Knapp, A.; Collins, S.; Blair, J.; Kelly, E.

    2008-12-01

    Climate models predict, and empirical evidence confirms, that more extreme precipitation regimes are occurring in tandem with warmer atmospheric temperatures. These more extreme rainfall patterns are characterized by increased event size separated by longer within season drought periods, and represent novel climatic conditions whose consequences for different ecosystem types are largely unknown. The focus of this talk will be the impacts of extreme rainfall events on soil water content and ecosystem function, and we will present results from experimental manipulations of rainfall in four native grassland sites within the Great Plains Region of North America (USA). Along this precipitation-productivity gradient, our results suggest strong sensitivity to more extreme growing season rainfall regimes, with responses of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) contingent on mean soil water levels for different grassland types. At the mesic end of the gradient (tallgrass prairie), longer dry intervals between events led to extended periods of below-average soil water content, increased plant water stress and a reduction in ANPP. The opposite response occurred at the dry end (semi-arid grasslands), where a shift to fewer, but larger, events increased periods of above-average soil water content, reduced seasonal plant water stress and resulted in an increase in ANPP. These results highlight the inherent complexity in predicting how terrestrial ecosystem will respond to forecast novel climate conditions as well as the difficulties in extending inferences from single site experiments across biomes. Even with no change in annual precipitation amount, ANPP responses in a relatively uniform physiographic region differed in both magnitude and direction in response to within season changes in rainfall event size/frequency. From a mechanistic perspective, we believe that these contingent responses reflect strikingly different consequences for soil water content as a result of

  14. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

    PubMed

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

  15. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

    PubMed

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657

  16. Antarctic Climate Change: Extreme Events Disrupt Plastic Phenotypic Response in Adélie Penguins

    PubMed Central

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G.

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A ‘natural experiment’ brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The ‘natural experiment’ uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657

  17. Evaluation of Piloted Inputs for Onboard Frequency Response Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grauer, Jared A.; Martos, Borja

    2013-01-01

    Frequency response estimation results are presented using piloted inputs and a real-time estimation method recently developed for multisine inputs. A nonlinear simulation of the F-16 and a Piper Saratoga research aircraft were subjected to different piloted test inputs while the short period stabilator/elevator to pitch rate frequency response was estimated. Results show that the method can produce accurate results using wide-band piloted inputs instead of multisines. A new metric is introduced for evaluating which data points to include in the analysis and recommendations are provided for applying this method with piloted inputs.

  18. Response of shoal grass, Halodule wrightii, to extreme winter conditions in the Lower Laguna Madre, Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hicks, D.W.; Onuf, C.P.; Tunnell, J.W.

    1998-01-01

    Effects of a severe freeze on the shoal grass, Halodule wrightii, were documented through analysis of temporal and spatial trends in below-ground biomass. The coincidence of the second lowest temperature (-10.6??C) in 107 years of record, 56 consecutive hours below freezing, high winds and extremely low water levels exposed the Laguna Madre, TX, to the most severe cold stress in over a century. H. wrightii tolerated this extreme freeze event. Annual pre- and post-freeze surveys indicated that below-ground biomass estimated from volume was Unaffected by the freeze event. Nor was there any post-freeze change in biomass among intertidal sites directly exposed to freezing air temperatures relative to subtidal sites which remained submerged during the freezing period.

  19. A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability

    PubMed Central

    Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.

    2013-01-01

    We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722

  20. Comparative Metagenomic Analysis Reveals Mechanisms for Stress Response in Hypoliths from Extreme Hyperarid Deserts.

    PubMed

    Le, Phuong Thi; Makhalanyane, Thulani P; Guerrero, Leandro D; Vikram, Surendra; Van de Peer, Yves; Cowan, Don A

    2016-01-01

    Understanding microbial adaptation to environmental stressors is crucial for interpreting broader ecological patterns. In the most extreme hot and cold deserts, cryptic niche communities are thought to play key roles in ecosystem processes and represent excellent model systems for investigating microbial responses to environmental stressors. However, relatively little is known about the genetic diversity underlying such functional processes in climatically extreme desert systems. This study presents the first comparative metagenome analysis of cyanobacteria-dominated hypolithic communities in hot (Namib Desert, Namibia) and cold (Miers Valley, Antarctica) hyperarid deserts. The most abundant phyla in both hypolith metagenomes were Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria, Cyanobacteria and Bacteroidetes with Cyanobacteria dominating in Antarctic hypoliths. However, no significant differences between the two metagenomes were identified. The Antarctic hypolithic metagenome displayed a high number of sequences assigned to sigma factors, replication, recombination and repair, translation, ribosomal structure, and biogenesis. In contrast, the Namib Desert metagenome showed a high abundance of sequences assigned to carbohydrate transport and metabolism. Metagenome data analysis also revealed significant divergence in the genetic determinants of amino acid and nucleotide metabolism between these two metagenomes and those of soil from other polar deserts, hot deserts, and non-desert soils. Our results suggest extensive niche differentiation in hypolithic microbial communities from these two extreme environments and a high genetic capacity for survival under environmental extremes. PMID:27503299

  1. Extreme flood estimation by the SCHADEX method in a snow-driven catchment: application to Atnasjø (Norway)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paquet, Emmanuel; Lawrence, Deborah

    2013-04-01

    The SCHADEX method for extreme flood estimation was developed by Paquet et al. (2006, 2013), and since 2008, it is the reference method used by Electricité de France (EDF) for dam spillway design. SCHADEX is a so-called "semi-continuous" stochastic simulation method in that flood events are simulated on an event basis and are superimposed on a continuous simulation of the catchment saturation hazard usingrainfall-runoff modelling. The MORDOR hydrological model (Garçon, 1999) has thus far been used for the rainfall-runoff modelling. MORDOR is a conceptual, lumped, reservoir model with daily areal rainfall and air temperature as the driving input data. The principal hydrological processes represented are evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, ground water, snow accumulation and melt, and routing. The model has been intensively used at EDF for more than 15 years, in particular for inflow forecasts for French mountainous catchments. SCHADEX has now also been applied to the Atnasjø catchment (463 km²), a well-documented inland catchment in south-central Norway, dominated by snowmelt flooding during spring/early summer. To support this application, a weather pattern classification based on extreme rainfall was first established for Norway (Fleig, 2012). This classification scheme was then used to build a Multi-Exponential Weather Pattern distribution (MEWP), as introduced by Garavaglia et al. (2010) for extreme rainfall estimation. The MORDOR model was then calibrated relative to daily discharge data for Atnasjø. Finally, a SCHADEX simulation was run to build a daily discharge distribution with a sufficient number of simulations for assessing the extreme quantiles. Detailed results are used to illustrate how SCHADEX handles the complex and interacting hydrological processes driving flood generation in this snow driven catchment. Seasonal and monthly distributions, as well as statistics for several thousand simulated events reaching a 1000 years return level

  2. Role of Soils in Hydrologic Response to Climate Extremes and Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Save, H.; Reedy, R. C.; Faunt, C. C.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing demand for water in response to growing global population underscores the need to better understand linkages and feedbacks between land surface processes and water resources to manage water resources more sustainably. Here we examine the role of soils on hydrologic response to climate extremes and land use change using field scale and remote sensing data at point to basin scales in the U.S. High Plains and California Central Valley. In the U.S. High Plains, soil-textural variations make the difference between sustainable water resources related to coarse-grained soils in the northern High Plains and groundwater mining associated with fine-grained soils in much of the central and southern High Plains. Field data show dynamic response of water resources to droughts and land use change in the northern High Plains with limited response in much of the central and southern High Plains. Soil profiles provide a key to the past by archiving system response to environmental changes in subsurface soil physics and environmental tracer data. Areas with coarse-grained soils are vulnerable to reduced recharge during droughts and increased recharge with land use change from perennial to annual vegetation whereas fine-grained soils are generally insensitive to these stresses. GRACE satellite monitoring of total water storage variations in response to recent droughts is consistent with these spatial variations in soils across the High Plains and hydrologic response to droughts.In the California Central Valley, coarse grained soils in alluvial basins result in dynamic hydrologic responses to climate extremes. GRACE satellite data show marked depletion in total water storage in response to recent droughts reflecting groundwater and surface reservoir storage declines consistent with regional groundwater modeling and monitoring data. The coarse alluvial soils typical of much of the region facilitate managed aquifer recharge in depleted aquifers to complement surface reservoir

  3. Channel response to extreme floods: Insights on controlling factors from six mountain rivers in northern Apennines, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Surian, Nicola; Righini, Margherita; Lucía, Ana; Nardi, Laura; Amponsah, William; Benvenuti, Marco; Borga, Marco; Cavalli, Marco; Comiti, Francesco; Marchi, Lorenzo; Rinaldi, Massimo; Viero, Alessia

    2016-11-01

    This work addresses the geomorphic response of mountain rivers to extreme floods, exploring the relationships between morphological changes and controlling factors. The research was conducted on six tributaries of the Magra River (northern Apennines, Italy) whose catchments were affected by an extreme flood (estimated recurrence interval > 100 years in most of the basins) on 25 October 2011. An integrated approach was deployed to study this flood, including (i) analysis of channel width changes by comparing aerial photographs taken before and after the flood, (ii) estimate of peak discharges in ungauged streams, (iii) detailed mapping of landslides and analysis of their connectivity with the channel network. Channel widening occurred in 35 reaches out of 39. In reaches with channel slope < 4% (here defined as nonsteep reaches), average and maximum ratios of post-flood and pre-flood channel width were 5.2 and 19.7 (i.e., channel widened from 4 to 82 m), respectively. In steep reaches (slope ≥ 4%), widening was slightly less intense (i.e., average width ratio = 3.4, maximum width ratio = 9.6). The relationships between the degree of channel widening and seven controlling factors were explored at subreach scale by using multiple regression models. In the steep subreaches characterized by higher confinement, the degree of channel widening (i.e., width ratio) showed relatively strong relationships with cross-sectional stream power, unit stream power (calculated based on pre-flood channel width), and lateral confinement, with coefficients of multiple determination (R2) ranging between 0.43 and 0.67. The models for the nonsteep subreaches provided a lower explanation of widening variability, with R2 ranging from 0.30 to 0.38; in these reaches a significant although weak relation was found between the degree of channel widening and the hillslope area supplying sediment to the channels. Results indicate that hydraulic variables alone are not sufficient to satisfactorily

  4. Physiological responses at five estimates of critical velocity.

    PubMed

    Bull, Anthony J; Housh, Terry J; Johnson, Glen O; Rana, Sharon R

    2008-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare critical velocity (CV) estimates from five mathematical models, and to examine the oxygen uptake (VO(2)) and heart rate (HR) responses during treadmill runs at the five estimates of CV. Ten subjects (six males and four females) performed one incremental test to determine maximal oxygen consumption (VO(2max)) and four or five randomly ordered constant-velocity trials on a treadmill for the estimation of CV. Five mathematical models were used to estimate CV for each subject including two linear, two nonlinear, and an exponential model. Up to five randomly ordered runs to exhaustion were performed by each subject at treadmill velocities that corresponded to the five CV estimates, and VO(2) and HR responses were monitored throughout each trial. The 3-parameter, nonlinear (Non-3) model produced CV estimates that were significantly (P < 0.05) less than the other four models. During runs at CV estimates, five subjects did not complete 60 min at the their estimate from the Non-3 model, nine did not complete 60 min at their estimate from the Non-2 model, and no subjects completed 60 min at any estimate from the other three models. The mean HR value (179 +/- 18 beats min(-1), HR(peak)) at the end of runs at CV using the Non-3 model was significantly less than the maximal HR (195 +/- 7 beats min(-1), HR(max)) achieved during the incremental trial to exhaustion. However, mean HR(peak) values from runs at all other CV estimates were not significantly different from HR(max). Furthermore, data indicated that mean HR(peak) values increased during runs at CV estimates from the third minute to the end of exercise for all models, and that these increases in VO(2) (range = 367-458 ml min(-1)) were significantly greater than that typically associated with O(2) drift ( approximately 200 ml min(-1)) for all but the exponential model, indicating a VO(2) slow component associated with CV estimates from four of the five models. However, the mean VO(2

  5. A Regulatory Hierarchy Controls the Dynamic Transcriptional Response to Extreme Oxidative Stress in Archaea

    PubMed Central

    Gulli, Jordan G.; Sharma, Kriti; Schmid, Amy K.

    2015-01-01

    Networks of interacting transcription factors are central to the regulation of cellular responses to abiotic stress. Although the architecture of many such networks has been mapped, their dynamic function remains unclear. Here we address this challenge in archaea, microorganisms possessing transcription factors that resemble those of both eukaryotes and bacteria. Using genome-wide DNA binding location analysis integrated with gene expression and cell physiological data, we demonstrate that a bacterial-type transcription factor (TF), called RosR, and five TFIIB proteins, homologs of eukaryotic TFs, combinatorially regulate over 100 target genes important for the response to extremely high levels of peroxide. These genes include 20 other transcription factors and oxidative damage repair genes. RosR promoter occupancy is surprisingly dynamic, with the pattern of target gene expression during the transition from rapid growth to stress correlating strongly with the pattern of dynamic binding. We conclude that a hierarchical regulatory network orchestrated by TFs of hybrid lineage enables dynamic response and survival under extreme stress in archaea. This raises questions regarding the evolutionary trajectory of gene networks in response to stress. PMID:25569531

  6. On the mechanical modeling of the extreme softening/stiffening response of axially loaded tensegrity prisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraternali, Fernando; Carpentieri, Gerardo; Amendola, Ada

    2015-01-01

    We study the geometrically nonlinear behavior of uniformly compressed tensegrity prisms through fully elastic and rigid-elastic models. The given models predict a variety of mechanical behaviors in the regime of large displacements, including an extreme stiffening-type response, already known in the literature, and a newly discovered, extreme softening behavior. The latter may lead to a snap buckling event producing an axial collapse of the structure. The switching from one mechanical regime to another depends on the aspect ratio of the structure, the magnitude of the applied prestress, and the material properties of the constituent elements. We discuss potential mechanical and acoustic applications of such behaviors, which are related to the design and manufacture of tensegrity lattices and innovative metamaterials.

  7. Methodology for Estimating Ingestion Dose for Emergency Response at SRS

    SciTech Connect

    Simpkins, A.A.

    2003-07-21

    At the Savannah River Site (SRS), emergency response computer models are used to estimate dose following releases of radioactive materials to the environment. Downwind air and ground concentrations and their associated doses from inhalation and ground shine pathways are estimated. The emergency response model (PUFF-PLUME) uses real-time data to track either instantaneous (puff) or continuous (plume) releases. A site-specific ingestion dose model was developed for use with PUFF-PLUME that includes the following ingestion dose pathways pertinent to the surrounding SRS area: milk, beef, water, and fish. The model is simplistic and can be used with existing code output.

  8. Evidence for two extremes of ciliary motor response in a single swimming microorganism.

    PubMed

    Jung, Ilyong; Powers, Thomas R; Valles, James M

    2014-01-01

    Because arrays of motile cilia drive fluids for a range of processes, the versatile mechano-chemical mechanism coordinating them has been under scrutiny. The protist Paramecium presents opportunities to compare how groups of cilia perform two distinct functions, swimming propulsion and nutrient uptake. We present how the body cilia responsible for propulsion and the oral-groove cilia responsible for nutrient uptake respond to changes in their mechanical environment accomplished by varying the fluid viscosity over a factor of 7. Analysis with a phenomenological model of trajectories of swimmers made neutrally buoyant with magnetic forces combined with high-speed imaging of ciliary beating reveal that the body cilia exert a nearly constant propulsive force primarily by reducing their beat frequency as viscosity increases. By contrast, the oral-groove cilia beat at a nearly constant frequency. The existence of two extremes of motor response in a unicellular organism prompts unique investigations of factors controlling ciliary beating. PMID:24411242

  9. Evidence for Two Extremes of Ciliary Motor Response in a Single Swimming Microorganism

    PubMed Central

    Jung, Ilyong; Powers, Thomas R.; Valles, James M.

    2014-01-01

    Because arrays of motile cilia drive fluids for a range of processes, the versatile mechano-chemical mechanism coordinating them has been under scrutiny. The protist Paramecium presents opportunities to compare how groups of cilia perform two distinct functions, swimming propulsion and nutrient uptake. We present how the body cilia responsible for propulsion and the oral-groove cilia responsible for nutrient uptake respond to changes in their mechanical environment accomplished by varying the fluid viscosity over a factor of 7. Analysis with a phenomenological model of trajectories of swimmers made neutrally buoyant with magnetic forces combined with high-speed imaging of ciliary beating reveal that the body cilia exert a nearly constant propulsive force primarily by reducing their beat frequency as viscosity increases. By contrast, the oral-groove cilia beat at a nearly constant frequency. The existence of two extremes of motor response in a unicellular organism prompts unique investigations of factors controlling ciliary beating. PMID:24411242

  10. Adrenocortical stress responses influence an invasive vertebrate's fitness in an extreme environment

    PubMed Central

    Jessop, Tim S.; Letnic, Mike; Webb, Jonathan K.; Dempster, Tim

    2013-01-01

    Continued range expansion into physiologically challenging environments requires invasive species to maintain adaptive phenotypic performance. The adrenocortical stress response, governed in part by glucocorticoid hormones, influences physiological and behavioural responses of vertebrates to environmental stressors. However, any adaptive role of this response in invasive populations that are expanding into extreme environments is currently unclear. We experimentally manipulated the adrenocortical stress response of invasive cane toads (Rhinella marina) to investigate its effect on phenotypic performance and fitness at the species' range front in the Tanami Desert, Australia. Here, toads are vulnerable to overheating and dehydration during the annual hot–dry season and display elevated plasma corticosterone levels indicative of severe environmental stress. By comparing unmanipulated control toads with toads whose adrenocortical stress response was manipulated to increase acute physiological stress responsiveness, we found that control toads had significantly reduced daily evaporative water loss and higher survival relative to the experimental animals. The adrenocortical stress response hence appears essential in facilitating complex phenotypic performance and setting fitness trajectories of individuals from invasive species during range expansion. PMID:23945686

  11. Study on quantile estimates of extreme precipitation and their spatiotemporal consistency adjustment over the Huaihe River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shao, Yuehong; Wu, Junmei; Li, Min

    2016-09-01

    The quantile estimates and spatiotemporal consistency of extreme precipitation are studied by regional linear frequency analysis for Huaihe River basin in China. Firstly, the study area can be categorized into six homogeneous regions by using cluster analysis, heterogeneity measure, and discordancy measure. In the next step, we determine the optimum distribution for each homogeneous region by using two criteria of Monte Carlo simulations and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the sample L-moments. A diagram of L-moments ratio is used to further judge and validate the optimum distribution. The generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized normal (GNO), and generalized logistic (GLO) for 24-h duration are determined to be the more appropriate distribution based on the two criteria, L-moments ratio plot, and the tail thickness of curve in adjacent regions. A summary assessment can provide the more reasonable distribution, which avoids arbitrary results from single test. An important practical element of this study that was missing from previous works is the quantile spatiotemporal consistency analysis, which helps identify non-monotonicity among quantiles at different durations and reduces the gradient of estimates in the adjacent regions. Abnormality and spatial discontinuation can be removed by distributing the surplus of the ratio and twice different interpolation. A complete set of spatiotemporal consistent quantile estimates for various duration (24 h, 3 days, 5 days, and 7 days) and return periods (from 2 to 1000 years) can be obtained by using the abovementioned method in the study area, which are in the agreement with the observed precipitation extremes. It will provide important basis for hydrometeorological research, which is of significant scientific and practical merit.

  12. Experimal study of young male drivers' responses to vehicle collision using EMG of lower extremity.

    PubMed

    Gao, Zhenhai; Li, Chuzhao; Hu, Hongyu; Zhao, Hui; Chen, Chaoyang; Yu, Huili

    2015-01-01

    A driver's response to a front-coming vehicle collision consists of braking reaction time and braking behavior. The purpose was to investigate drivers' responses at different speeds, relative distances, and particularly the behavior on the accelerator at the collision moment. Twelve young men participated in driving simulator tests. Vehicle parameters and electromyograms (EMGs) of the drivers' tibialis anterior muscles were recorded and responses were analyzed. The drivers' braking reaction time windows were divided into pre-motor time, muscle activation time, accelerator release time, and movement time. By comparing the reaction times and collision times, braking behaviors were investigated. It was found that movement times (r = -0.281) decreased with speed. Pre-motor times (r = 0.326) and muscle activation times (r = 0.281) increased with relative distance. At the collision moment, the probability of the driver's lower extremity being on the accelerator, in the air, and on the brake pedal was 7.4%, 18.9%, and 73.7%, respectively. With higher speeds and smaller distances, the lower extremity was more likely to be in the air or even on the accelerator in different muscle activation states. The driver will collide in normal driving postures which muscles are not or not fully activated in very urgent situation. PMID:26406050

  13. Toward Extreme Biophysics: Deciphering the Infrared Response of Biomolecular Solutions at High Pressures.

    PubMed

    Imoto, Sho; Kibies, Patrick; Rosin, Christopher; Winter, Roland; Kast, Stefan M; Marx, Dominik

    2016-08-01

    Biophysics under extreme conditions is the fundamental platform for scrutinizing life in unusual habitats, such as those in the deep sea or continental subsurfaces, but also for putative extraterrestrial organisms. Therefore, an important thermodynamic variable to explore is pressure. It is shown that the combination of infrared spectroscopy with simulation is an exquisite approach for unraveling the intricate pressure response of the solvation pattern of TMAO in water, which is expected to be transferable to biomolecules in their native solvent. Pressure-enhanced hydrogen bonding was found for TMAO in water. TMAO is a molecule known to stabilize proteins against pressure-induced denaturation in deep-sea organisms. PMID:27351995

  14. Boron stress response and accumulation potential of the extremely tolerant species Puccinellia frigida.

    PubMed

    Rámila, Consuelo D P; Contreras, Samuel A; Di Domenico, Camila; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A; Vega, Andrea; Handford, Michael; Bonilla, Carlos A; Pizarro, Gonzalo E

    2016-11-01

    Phytoremediation is a promising technology to tackle boron toxicity, which restricts agricultural activities in many arid and semi-arid areas. Puccinellia frigida is a perennial grass that was reported to hyperaccumulate boron in extremely boron-contaminated sites. To further investigate its potential for phytoremediation, we determined its response to boron stress under controlled conditions (hydroponic culture). Also, as a first step towards understanding the mechanisms underlying its extreme tolerance, we evaluated the presence and expression of genes related with boron tolerance. We found that P. frigida grew normally even at highly toxic boron concentrations in the medium (500mg/L), and within its tissues (>5000mg/kg DW). We postulate that the strategies conferring this extreme tolerance involve both restricting boron accumulation and an internal tolerance mechanism; this is consistent with the identification of putative genes involved in both mechanisms, including the expression of a possible boron efflux transporter. We also found that P. frigida hyperaccumulated boron over a wide range of boron concentrations. We propose that P. frigida could be used for boron phytoremediation strategies in places with different soil characteristics and boron concentrations. Further studies should pave the way for the development of clean and low-cost solutions to boron toxicity problems.

  15. Boron stress response and accumulation potential of the extremely tolerant species Puccinellia frigida.

    PubMed

    Rámila, Consuelo D P; Contreras, Samuel A; Di Domenico, Camila; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A; Vega, Andrea; Handford, Michael; Bonilla, Carlos A; Pizarro, Gonzalo E

    2016-11-01

    Phytoremediation is a promising technology to tackle boron toxicity, which restricts agricultural activities in many arid and semi-arid areas. Puccinellia frigida is a perennial grass that was reported to hyperaccumulate boron in extremely boron-contaminated sites. To further investigate its potential for phytoremediation, we determined its response to boron stress under controlled conditions (hydroponic culture). Also, as a first step towards understanding the mechanisms underlying its extreme tolerance, we evaluated the presence and expression of genes related with boron tolerance. We found that P. frigida grew normally even at highly toxic boron concentrations in the medium (500mg/L), and within its tissues (>5000mg/kg DW). We postulate that the strategies conferring this extreme tolerance involve both restricting boron accumulation and an internal tolerance mechanism; this is consistent with the identification of putative genes involved in both mechanisms, including the expression of a possible boron efflux transporter. We also found that P. frigida hyperaccumulated boron over a wide range of boron concentrations. We propose that P. frigida could be used for boron phytoremediation strategies in places with different soil characteristics and boron concentrations. Further studies should pave the way for the development of clean and low-cost solutions to boron toxicity problems. PMID:27322905

  16. Geomorphically Effective Energy Expenditure for Quantifying Channel Responses to Extreme Floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amponsah, William; Righini, Margherita; Wohl, Ellen E.; Borga, Marco; Marchi, Lorenzo; Rathburn, Sara L.; Surian, Nicola; Zoccatelli, Davide

    2016-04-01

    Flash floods are characterized by strong spatio-temporal rainfall variability and therefore show variations in energy expenditure and associated geomorphic impacts that depend on geological controls on channel geometry and sediment characteristics, as well as on variations in flood intensity. Geomorphic modification is expected to occur in river channels when driving forces (i.e., hydraulic and abrasive forces of water and sediment acting on the channel) exceed threshold of resisting forces (i.e., the ability of channel boundaries to remain unchanged by the passage of water and sediments). However, these forces that determine the capacity of floods to modify existing channel configuration are extremely difficult to quantify. Geomorphic impacts or hazards usually take the form of erosional and depositional modification of the pre-flood channel and valley geometry. A central question in hydrogeomorphology relates to why flash floods of similar magnitudes and intensities sometimes produce dissimilar geomorphic results? In fact, some less magnitude floods in terms of discharge per unit of drainage area have been found to produce major geomorphic damage than some high magnitude events. Furthermore, the use of peak instantaneous flow parameters such as discharge, velocity, shear stress and stream power to quantify geomorphic changes have often been non-deterministic and/or inconclusive. Investigations are therefore needed on how factors such as channel geometry, substrate, riparian vegetation, sediment supply, and flood magnitude and duration can interact and influence geomorphic effectiveness of high magnitude floods. The main objective of this study is to assess the coupled influence of flood-flow duration and total energy expenditure on geomorphic response to extreme flash floods, which is aimed at developing an index that combines flow duration, stream power per unit area and threshold for major channel erosion to be evaluated as a predictor of geomorphic adjustment

  17. The oceanic response of the Turkish Straits System to an extreme drop in atmospheric pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Book, Jeffrey W.; Jarosz, Ewa; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Beşiktepe, Åükrü

    2014-06-01

    Moorings across all four entry/exit sections of the Dardanelles Strait and the Bosphorus Strait simultaneously measured the response of the Turkish Straits System to the passage of a severe cyclonic storm that included an atmospheric pressure drop of more than 30 mbar in less than 48 h. The bottom pressure response at the Aegean Sea side of the Dardanelles Strait was consistent with an inverted barometer response, but the response at the other sections did not follow an inverted barometer, leading to a large bottom pressure gradient through the Turkish Straits System. Upper-layer flow toward the Aegean Sea was reversed by the storm and flow toward the Black Sea was greatly enhanced. Bottom pressure across the Sea of Marmara peaked 6 h after the passage of the storm's minimum pressure. The response on the Dardanelles side was a combination of sea elevation and pycnocline depth rise, and the response on the Bosphorus side was an even greater sea elevation rise and a drop in pycnocline depth. The peak in bottom pressure in the Sea of Marmara was followed by another reverse in the flow through the Dardanelles Strait as flow was then directed away from the Sea of Marmara in both straits. A simple conceptual model without wind is able to explain fluctuations in bottom pressure in the Sea of Marmara to a 0.89-0.96 level of correlation. This stresses the importance of atmospheric pressure dynamics in driving the mass flux of the Turkish Strait System for extreme storms.

  18. Estimating Population Characteristics from Sparse Matrix Samples of Item Responses.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mislevy, Robert J.; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Concepts behind plausible values in estimating population characteristics from sparse matrix samples of item responses are discussed. The use of marginal analyses is described in the context of the National Assessment of Educational Progress, and the approach is illustrated with Scholastic Aptitude Test data for 9,075 high school seniors. (SLD)

  19. Magnetotelluric Response Function Estimation Based on Hilbert-Huang Transform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Jian-hua

    2013-11-01

    Magnetotelluric (MT) data series are non-stationary random signals that do not meet the basic requirements of conventional methods based on the Fourier transform. To minimize the estimation bias errors brought about by the non-stationary characteristics of MT data, a new method, based on the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT), is proposed for the first time for estimating the MT response functions from a time series of electromagnetic field variations. With the HHT method, the amplitude of data series are expressed as a function of frequency and time and then response functions are estimated statistically from the time-frequency spectrum. Mathematical model and calculation processes are introduced and some simulated data are analyzed to verify the correctness of the method. Finally, the measured MT data is facilitated by applying the HHT to assess the ability of HHT method to quantify meaningful geologic information.

  20. Differing Response of Extreme Precipitation to Changing Boundary Conditions in Simulations with Parametrized and Explicit Convection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meredith, Edmund; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir; Park, Wonsun

    2015-04-01

    Recent studies have shown that the representation of extreme precipitation in climate models is much more sensitive to model resolution than that of mean precipitation. With global and regional circulation models simulating both present and future climates at ever-increasing resolution, it is only a matter of time before convection resolving climate projections become the norm. In the meantime, regional climate models provide an efficient and inexpensive tool to assess what, if any, impact explicitly resolved convection may have on the representation of precipitation extremes in warmer climates with enhanced boundary forcings. To compare the response of precipitation extremes in models with parametrized and explicitly resolved convection to changing boundary forcings, we select the July 2012 precipitation extreme near the Black Sea town of Krymsk as a recent showcase example. The event was related to a slow moving low pressure system crossing the eastern Black Sea, advecting warm and moist air towards the coast. Two waves of convection resulted in precipitation totals that dwarfed all previous events in the instrumental record, dating back to the 1930s, and over 170 deaths. We carry out ensemble sensitivity experiments with a triply nested configuration of the WRF regional model, for a domain covering the eastern Black Sea. The event is simulated at 15 km, 3 km and 600 m resolution. The model's ability to reproduce the event with observed forcings is first verified, before a series of additional ensembles with altered boundary forcings, in our case sea surface temperature (SST), is created. These ensembles consist of subtracting (adding) the 1982 - 2012 trend in Black Sea SST from (to) the observed 2012 SST field in 20% increments, giving a total of 11 ensembles whose SST differ from the observed field by between -100% and +100% of the warming trend. Aggregating all data to the 15 km grid, we compare the responses of hourly precipitation maxima to incrementally

  1. Use of Generalized Extreme Value Covariates to Improve Estimation of Trends and Return Frequencies for Lake Levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paynter, S.; Nachabe, M.

    2008-12-01

    One of the most important tools in water management is the accurate forecast of both long-term and short- term extreme values for both flood and drought conditions. Traditional methods of trend detection, such as ordinary least squares (OLS) or the Mann-Kendall test, are not aptly suited for hydrologic systems while traditional methods of predicting extreme flood and drought frequencies, such as distribution fitting without parameter covariates, may be highly inaccurate in lake-type systems, especially in the short-term. In the case of lakes, traditional frequency return estimates assume extremes are independent of trend or starting lake stages. However, due to the significant autocorrelation of lake levels, the initial stage can have a significant influence on the severity of a given event. The aim of this research was to accurately identify the direction and magnitude of trends in flood and drought stages and provide more accurate predictions of both long-term and short-term flood and drought stage return frequencies utilizing the generalized extreme value distribution with time and starting stage covariates. All of the lakes researched evidenced either no trend or very small trends unlikely to significantly alter prediction of future flood or drought return levels. However, for all of the lakes significant improvement in the prediction of extremes was obtained with the inclusion of starting lake stage as a covariate. Traditional methods of predicting flood or drought stages significantly overpredict stages when starting lake stages are low and underpredict stages when starting stages are high. The difference between these predictions can be nearly two meters, a significant amount in urbanized watersheds in areas of the world with flat topography. Differences of near two meters can mean significant alterations in evacuation or other water management decisions. In addition to improving prediction of extreme events, utilizing GEV with time or starting stage

  2. Estimating central blood pressure in the extreme vascular phenotype of advanced kidney disease.

    PubMed

    Boutouyrie, Pierre; London, Gérard M; Sharman, James E

    2016-10-01

    Carlsen et al. demonstrated that the estimation of central blood pressure from peripheral tonometry does not work properly in patients with chronic kidney disease. We explore here the implications of this finding, first by considering the technical conditions for validating central BP monitors, then by discussing the possible causes for discrepancies between chronic kidney disease patients and usual study populations. Lastly, we review the merits and limits of the work by Carlsen et al. PMID:27633868

  3. Edge Response and NIIRS Estimates for Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blonski, Slawomir; Ryan, Robert E.; Pagnutti, mary; Stanley, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    Spatial resolution of panchromatic imagery from commercial remote sensing satellites was characterized based on edge response measurements using edge targets and the tilted-edge technique. Relative Edge Response (RER) was estimated as a geometric mean of normalized edge response differences measured in two directions of image pixels at points distanced from the edge by -0.5 and 0.5 of ground sample distance. RER is one of the engineering parameters used in the General Image Quality Equation to provide predictions of imaging system performance expressed in terms of the National Imagery Interpretability Rating Scale (NIIRS). By assuming a plausible range of signal-to-noise ratio and assessing the effects of Modulation Transfer Function compensation, the NIIRS estimates were made and then compared with vendor-provided values and evaluations conducted by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.

  4. Influence of turbulence, orientation, and site configuration on the response of buildings to extreme wind.

    PubMed

    Aly, Aly Mousaad

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric turbulence results from the vertical movement of air, together with flow disturbances around surface obstacles which make low- and moderate-level winds extremely irregular. Recent advancements in wind engineering have led to the construction of new facilities for testing residential homes at relatively high Reynolds numbers. However, the generation of a fully developed turbulence in these facilities is challenging. The author proposed techniques for the testing of residential buildings and architectural features in flows that lack fully developed turbulence. While these methods are effective for small structures, the extension of the approach for large and flexible structures is not possible yet. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of turbulence in the response of tall buildings to extreme winds. In addition, the paper presents a detailed analysis to investigate the influence of upstream terrain conditions, wind direction angle (orientation), and the interference effect from the surrounding on the response of high-rise buildings. The methodology presented can be followed to help decision makers to choose among innovative solutions like aerodynamic mitigation, structural member size adjustment, and/or damping enhancement, with an objective to improve the resiliency and the serviceability of buildings.

  5. Post Mortem Human Surrogate Injury Response of the Pelvis and Lower Extremities to Simulated Underbody Blast.

    PubMed

    Bailey, Ann M; Christopher, John J; Brozoski, Frederick; Salzar, Robert S

    2015-08-01

    Military vehicle underbody blast (UBB) is the cause of many serious injuries in theatre today; however, the effects of these chaotic events on the human body are not well understood. The purpose of this research was to replicate both UBB loading conditions and investigate occupant response in a controlled laboratory setting. In addition to better understanding the response of the human to high rate vertical loading, this test series also aimed to identify high rate injury thresholds. Ten whole body post mortem human surrogate (PMHS) tests were completed using the University of Virginia's ODYSSEY simulated blast rig under a range of loading conditions. Seat pan accelerations ranged from 291 to 738 g's over 3 ms of positive phase duration, and foot pan accelerations from 234 to 858 g's over 3 ms of positive phase duration. Post-test computed tomography (CT) scans and necropsies were performed to determine injuries, and revealed a combination of pelvic, lumbar, thoracic, and lower extremity injuries. The research in this paper discusses pelvis and lower extremity injuries under high rate vertical loads.

  6. Influence of Turbulence, Orientation, and Site Configuration on the Response of Buildings to Extreme Wind

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric turbulence results from the vertical movement of air, together with flow disturbances around surface obstacles which make low- and moderate-level winds extremely irregular. Recent advancements in wind engineering have led to the construction of new facilities for testing residential homes at relatively high Reynolds numbers. However, the generation of a fully developed turbulence in these facilities is challenging. The author proposed techniques for the testing of residential buildings and architectural features in flows that lack fully developed turbulence. While these methods are effective for small structures, the extension of the approach for large and flexible structures is not possible yet. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of turbulence in the response of tall buildings to extreme winds. In addition, the paper presents a detailed analysis to investigate the influence of upstream terrain conditions, wind direction angle (orientation), and the interference effect from the surrounding on the response of high-rise buildings. The methodology presented can be followed to help decision makers to choose among innovative solutions like aerodynamic mitigation, structural member size adjustment, and/or damping enhancement, with an objective to improve the resiliency and the serviceability of buildings. PMID:24701140

  7. Responses of tree species to heat waves and extreme heat events.

    PubMed

    Teskey, Robert; Wertin, Timothy; Bauweraerts, Ingvar; Ameye, Maarten; McGuire, Mary Anne; Steppe, Kathy

    2015-09-01

    The number and intensity of heat waves has increased, and this trend is likely to continue throughout the 21st century. Often, heat waves are accompanied by drought conditions. It is projected that the global land area experiencing heat waves will double by 2020, and quadruple by 2040. Extreme heat events can impact a wide variety of tree functions. At the leaf level, photosynthesis is reduced, photooxidative stress increases, leaves abscise and the growth rate of remaining leaves decreases. In some species, stomatal conductance increases at high temperatures, which may be a mechanism for leaf cooling. At the whole plant level, heat stress can decrease growth and shift biomass allocation. When drought stress accompanies heat waves, the negative effects of heat stress are exacerbated and can lead to tree mortality. However, some species exhibit remarkable tolerance to thermal stress. Responses include changes that minimize stress on photosynthesis and reductions in dark respiration. Although there have been few studies to date, there is evidence of within-species genetic variation in thermal tolerance, which could be important to exploit in production forestry systems. Understanding the mechanisms of differing tree responses to extreme temperature events may be critically important for understanding how tree species will be affected by climate change.

  8. Post Mortem Human Surrogate Injury Response of the Pelvis and Lower Extremities to Simulated Underbody Blast.

    PubMed

    Bailey, Ann M; Christopher, John J; Brozoski, Frederick; Salzar, Robert S

    2015-08-01

    Military vehicle underbody blast (UBB) is the cause of many serious injuries in theatre today; however, the effects of these chaotic events on the human body are not well understood. The purpose of this research was to replicate both UBB loading conditions and investigate occupant response in a controlled laboratory setting. In addition to better understanding the response of the human to high rate vertical loading, this test series also aimed to identify high rate injury thresholds. Ten whole body post mortem human surrogate (PMHS) tests were completed using the University of Virginia's ODYSSEY simulated blast rig under a range of loading conditions. Seat pan accelerations ranged from 291 to 738 g's over 3 ms of positive phase duration, and foot pan accelerations from 234 to 858 g's over 3 ms of positive phase duration. Post-test computed tomography (CT) scans and necropsies were performed to determine injuries, and revealed a combination of pelvic, lumbar, thoracic, and lower extremity injuries. The research in this paper discusses pelvis and lower extremity injuries under high rate vertical loads. PMID:25503737

  9. Estimation of Extreme Sea Levels for the Russian Coasts of the Kuril Islands and the Sea of Okhotsk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shevchenko, Georgy; Ivelskaya, Tatiana

    2015-12-01

    Extreme sea levels arising from the combination of tides, storm surges, seasonal oscillations and tsunamis were estimated by the joint probability method for the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Pacific coast of the Kuril Islands. The sea-level observations at 10 coastal tide gauges were examined. The tidal heights at most stations are about 1.5-2 m, and only at Magadan are they much larger (about 5 m). Storm surges have the largest heights for the central Kuril Islands (Matua and Iturup islands), while at the North and South Kuril Islands the surge heights are the smallest. The recurrence of tsunami heights of various probabilities was estimated for each station. The influence of tides and storm surges on the tsunami risk assessment for the Pacific coast of the Kurile Islands was found to be relatively small. For the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk, the contribution of tides and surges is the primary influence, especially for return periods less than 100 years. For longer return periods, tsunamis play the major role in forming the extreme levels (similar to the Russian coast of the Sea of Japan, e.g., R abinovich et al. 1992).

  10. On trend estimation and significance testing for non-Gaussian and serially dependent data: quantifying the urbanization effect on trends in hot extremes in the megacity of Shanghai

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Cheng

    2016-07-01

    Quantifying the urbanization effect on trends in climate extremes is important both for detection and attribution studies and for human adaptation; however, a fundamental problem is how to accurately estimate a trend and its statistical significance, especially for non-Gaussian and serially dependent data. In this paper, the choice of trend estimation and significance testing method is suggested as important for these kinds of studies, as illustrated by quantifying the urbanization effect on trends in seven hot-extreme indices for the megacity of Shanghai during 1961-2013. Both linear and nonlinear trend estimation methods were used. The trends and corresponding statistical significances were estimated by taking into account potential non-Gaussian and serial dependence in the extreme indices. A new method based on adaptive surrogate data is proposed to test the statistical significance of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) nonlinear trend. The urbanization contribution was found to be approximately 34 % (43 %) for the trend in the non-Gaussian distributed heat wave index based on nonparametric linear trend (EEMD nonlinear trend) estimation. For some of the other six hot-extreme indices analyzed, the urbanization contributions estimated based on linear and nonlinear trends varied greatly, with as much as a twofold difference between them. For the linear trend estimation itself, the ordinary least squares fit can give a substantially biased estimation of the urbanization contribution for some of the non-Gaussian extreme indices.

  11. Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the United States: Quantifying the Responses to Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mascioli, N. R.; Fiore, A. M.; Previdi, M. J.; Correa, G. J. P.

    2014-12-01

    Climate model outputs usually have much coarser spatial resolution than is needed by impacts models. Although higher resolution can be achieved using regional climate models for dynamical downscaling, further downscaling is often required. The final resolution gap is often closed with a combination of spatial interpolation and bias correction, which constitutes a form of statistical downscaling. We use this technique to downscale regional climate model data and evaluate its skill in reproducing extreme events. We downscale output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) dataset from its native 50-km spatial resolution to the 4-km resolution of University of Idaho's METDATA gridded surface meterological dataset, which derives from the PRISM and NLDAS-2 observational datasets. We operate on the major variables used in impacts analysis at a daily timescale: daily minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, humidity, pressure, solar radiation, and winds. To interpolate the data, we use the patch recovery method from the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) regridding package. We then bias correct the data using Kernel Density Distribution Mapping (KDDM), which has been shown to exhibit superior overall performance across multiple metrics. Finally, we evaluate the skill of this technique in reproducing extreme events by comparing raw and downscaled output with meterological station data in different bioclimatic regions according to the the skill scores defined by Perkins et al in 2013 for evaluation of AR4 climate models. We also investigate techniques for improving bias correction of values in the tails of the distributions. These techniques include binned kernel density estimation, logspline kernel density estimation, and transfer functions constructed by fitting the tails with a generalized pareto distribution.

  12. A Bayesian Semiparametric Model for Radiation Dose-Response Estimation.

    PubMed

    Furukawa, Kyoji; Misumi, Munechika; Cologne, John B; Cullings, Harry M

    2016-06-01

    In evaluating the risk of exposure to health hazards, characterizing the dose-response relationship and estimating acceptable exposure levels are the primary goals. In analyses of health risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation, while there is a clear agreement that moderate to high radiation doses cause harmful effects in humans, little has been known about the possible biological effects at low doses, for example, below 0.1 Gy, which is the dose range relevant to most radiation exposures of concern today. A conventional approach to radiation dose-response estimation based on simple parametric forms, such as the linear nonthreshold model, can be misleading in evaluating the risk and, in particular, its uncertainty at low doses. As an alternative approach, we consider a Bayesian semiparametric model that has a connected piece-wise-linear dose-response function with prior distributions having an autoregressive structure among the random slope coefficients defined over closely spaced dose categories. With a simulation study and application to analysis of cancer incidence data among Japanese atomic bomb survivors, we show that this approach can produce smooth and flexible dose-response estimation while reasonably handling the risk uncertainty at low doses and elsewhere. With relatively few assumptions and modeling options to be made by the analyst, the method can be particularly useful in assessing risks associated with low-dose radiation exposures. PMID:26581473

  13. Estimation of normalized point-source sensitivity of segment surface specifications for extremely large telescopes.

    PubMed

    Seo, Byoung-Joon; Nissly, Carl; Troy, Mitchell; Angeli, George; Bernier, Robert; Stepp, Larry; Williams, Eric

    2013-06-20

    We present a method which estimates the normalized point-source sensitivity (PSSN) of a segmented telescope when only information from a single segment surface is known. The estimation principle is based on a statistical approach with an assumption that all segment surfaces have the same power spectral density (PSD) as the given segment surface. As presented in this paper, the PSSN based on this statistical approach represents a worst-case scenario among statistical random realizations of telescopes when all segment surfaces have the same PSD. Therefore, this method, which we call the vendor table, is expected to be useful for individual segment specification such as the segment polishing specification. The specification based on the vendor table can be directly related to a science metric such as PSSN and provides the mirror vendors significant flexibility by specifying a single overall PSSN value for them to meet. We build a vendor table for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) and test it using multiple mirror samples from various mirror vendors to prove its practical utility. Accordingly, TMT has a plan to adopt this vendor table for its M1 segment final mirror polishing requirement.

  14. Different atmospheric moisture divergence responses to extreme and moderate El Niños

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Guangzhi; Osborn, Timothy J.; Matthews, Adrian J.; Joshi, Manoj M.

    2016-07-01

    On seasonal and inter-annual time scales, vertically integrated moisture divergence provides a useful measure of the tropical atmospheric hydrological cycle. It reflects the combined dynamical and thermodynamical effects, and is not subject to the limitations that afflict observations of evaporation minus precipitation. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the tropical Pacific moisture divergence fields calculated from the ERA-Interim reanalysis reveals the dominant effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual time scales. Two EOFs are necessary to capture the ENSO signature, and regression relationships between their Principal Components and indices of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) demonstrate that the transition from strong La Niña through to extreme El Niño events is not a linear one. The largest deviation from linearity is for the strongest El Niños, and we interpret that this arises at least partly because the EOF analysis cannot easily separate different patterns of responses that are not orthogonal to each other. To overcome the orthogonality constraints, a self-organizing map (SOM) analysis of the same moisture divergence fields was performed. The SOM analysis captures the range of responses to ENSO, including the distinction between the moderate and strong El Niños identified by the EOF analysis. The work demonstrates the potential for the application of SOM to large scale climatic analysis, by virtue of its easier interpretation, relaxation of orthogonality constraints and its versatility for serving as an alternative classification method. Both the EOF and SOM analyses suggest a classification of "moderate" and "extreme" El Niños by their differences in the magnitudes of the hydrological cycle responses, spatial patterns and evolutionary paths. Classification from the moisture divergence point of view shows consistency with results based on other physical variables such as SST.

  15. Future change of extreme temperature climate indices over East Asia with uncertainties estimation in the CMIP5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, Ye-Won; Kim, Hojin; Yun, Kyung-Sook; Lee, June-Yi; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Moon, Ja-Yeon

    2014-11-01

    How well the climate models simulate extreme temperature over East Asia and how the extreme indices would change under anthropogenic global warming are investigated. The indices studied include hot days (HD), tropical nights (TN), growing degree days (GDD), and cooling degree days (CDD) in summer and heating degree days (HDD) and frost days (FD) in winter. The representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) experiments for the period of 2075-2099 are compared with historical simulations for the period of 1979-2005 from 15 coupled models that are participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To optimally estimate future change and its uncertainty, groups of best models are selected based on Taylor diagrams, relative entropy, and probability density function (PDF) methods previously suggested. Overall, the best models' multi-model ensemble based on Taylor diagrams has the lowest errors in reproducing temperature extremes in the present climate among three methods. Selected best models in three methods tend to project considerably different changes in the extreme indices from each other, indicating that the selection of reliable models are of critical importance to reduce uncertainties. Three groups of best models show significant increase of summerbased indices but decrease of the winter-based indices. Over East Asia, the most significant increase is seen in the HD (336 ± 23.4% of current climate) and the most significant decrease is appeared in the HDD (82 ± 4.2%). It is suggested that the larger future change in the HD is found over in the Southeastern China region, probably due to a higher local maximum temperature in the present climate. All of the indices show the largest uncertainty over Southeastern China, particularly in the TN (~3.9 times as large as uncertainty over East Asia) and in the HD (~2.4). It is further noted that the TN reveals the largest uncertainty over three East Asian countries (~1.7 and 1.4 over Korea and

  16. Characterization, parameter estimation, and aircraft response statistics of atmospheric turbulence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mark, W. D.

    1981-01-01

    A nonGaussian three component model of atmospheric turbulence is postulated that accounts for readily observable features of turbulence velocity records, their autocorrelation functions, and their spectra. Methods for computing probability density functions and mean exceedance rates of a generic aircraft response variable are developed using nonGaussian turbulence characterizations readily extracted from velocity recordings. A maximum likelihood method is developed for optimal estimation of the integral scale and intensity of records possessing von Karman transverse of longitudinal spectra. Formulas for the variances of such parameter estimates are developed. The maximum likelihood and least-square approaches are combined to yield a method for estimating the autocorrelation function parameters of a two component model for turbulence.

  17. Materials and noncoplanar mesh designs for integrated circuits with linear elastic responses to extreme mechanical deformations

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Dae-Hyeong; Song, Jizhou; Choi, Won Mook; Kim, Hoon-Sik; Kim, Rak-Hwan; Liu, Zhuangjian; Huang, Yonggang Y.; Hwang, Keh-Chih; Zhang, Yong-wei; Rogers, John A.

    2008-01-01

    Electronic systems that offer elastic mechanical responses to high-strain deformations are of growing interest because of their ability to enable new biomedical devices and other applications whose requirements are impossible to satisfy with conventional wafer-based technologies or even with those that offer simple bendability. This article introduces materials and mechanical design strategies for classes of electronic circuits that offer extremely high stretchability, enabling them to accommodate even demanding configurations such as corkscrew twists with tight pitch (e.g., 90° in ≈1 cm) and linear stretching to “rubber-band” levels of strain (e.g., up to ≈140%). The use of single crystalline silicon nanomaterials for the semiconductor provides performance in stretchable complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) integrated circuits approaching that of conventional devices with comparable feature sizes formed on silicon wafers. Comprehensive theoretical studies of the mechanics reveal the way in which the structural designs enable these extreme mechanical properties without fracturing the intrinsically brittle active materials or even inducing significant changes in their electrical properties. The results, as demonstrated through electrical measurements of arrays of transistors, CMOS inverters, ring oscillators, and differential amplifiers, suggest a valuable route to high-performance stretchable electronics. PMID:19015528

  18. Response of ice caves to weather extremes in the southeastern Alps, Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colucci, R. R.; Fontana, D.; Forte, E.; Potleca, M.; Guglielmin, M.

    2016-05-01

    High altitude karstic environments often preserve permanent ice deposits within caves, representing the lesser-known portion of the cryosphere. Despite being not so widespread and easily reachable as mountain glaciers and ice caps, ice caves preserve much information about past environmental changes and climatic evolution. We selected 1111 ice caves from the existing cave inventory, predominantly but not exclusively located in the periglacial domain where permafrost is not dominant (i.e., with mean annual air temperature < 3 °C but not in a permafrost environment). The influence of climate and topography on ice cave distribution is also investigated. In order to assess the thickness and the inner structure of the deposits, we selected two exemplary ice caves in the Canin massif (Julian Alps) performing several multifrequency GPR surveys. A strong influence of global and local climate change in the evolution of the ice deposits has been particularly highlighted in the dynamic ice cave type, especially in regard to the role of weather extremes. The natural response of ice caves to a warming climate could lead to a fast reduction of such ice masses. The increased occurrence of weather extremes, especially warmer and more intense precipitation caused by higher mean 0 °C-isotherms, could in fact be crucial in the future mass balance evolution of such permanent ice deposits.

  19. Aircraft Fault Detection Using Real-Time Frequency Response Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grauer, Jared A.

    2016-01-01

    A real-time method for estimating time-varying aircraft frequency responses from input and output measurements was demonstrated. The Bat-4 subscale airplane was used with NASA Langley Research Center's AirSTAR unmanned aerial flight test facility to conduct flight tests and collect data for dynamic modeling. Orthogonal phase-optimized multisine inputs, summed with pilot stick and pedal inputs, were used to excite the responses. The aircraft was tested in its normal configuration and with emulated failures, which included a stuck left ruddervator and an increased command path latency. No prior knowledge of a dynamic model was used or available for the estimation. The longitudinal short period dynamics were investigated in this work. Time-varying frequency responses and stability margins were tracked well using a 20 second sliding window of data, as compared to a post-flight analysis using output error parameter estimation and a low-order equivalent system model. This method could be used in a real-time fault detection system, or for other applications of dynamic modeling such as real-time verification of stability margins during envelope expansion tests.

  20. Maximum likelihood estimation for cytogenetic dose-response curves

    SciTech Connect

    Frome, E.L.; DuFrain, R.J.

    1986-03-01

    In vitro dose-response curves are used to describe the relation between chromosome aberrations and radiation dose for human lymphocytes. The lymphocytes are exposed to low-LET radiation, and the resulting dicentric chromosome aberrations follow the Poisson distribution. The expected yield depends on both the magnitude and the temporal distribution of the dose. A general dose-response model that describes this relation has been presented by Kellerer and Rossi (1972, Current Topics on Radiation Research Quarterly 8, 85-158; 1978, Radiation Research 75, 471-488) using the theory of dual radiation action. Two special cases of practical interest are split-dose and continuous exposure experiments, and the resulting dose-time-response models are intrinsically nonlinear in the parameters. A general-purpose maximum likelihood estimation procedure is described, and estimation for the nonlinear models is illustrated with numerical examples from both experimental designs. Poisson regression analysis is used for estimation, hypothesis testing, and regression diagnostics. Results are discussed in the context of exposure assessment procedures for both acute and chronic human radiation exposure.

  1. Poleward expansion of mangroves is a threshold response to decreased frequency of extreme cold events

    PubMed Central

    Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Kellner, James R.; Forde, Alexander J.; Gruner, Daniel S.; Parker, John D.; Rodriguez, Wilfrid; Feller, Ilka C.

    2014-01-01

    Regional warming associated with climate change is linked with altered range and abundance of species and ecosystems worldwide. However, the ecological impacts of changes in the frequency of extreme events have not been as well documented, especially for coastal and marine environments. We used 28 y of satellite imagery to demonstrate that the area of mangrove forests has doubled at the northern end of their historic range on the east coast of Florida. This expansion is associated with a reduction in the frequency of “extreme” cold events (days colder than −4 °C), but uncorrelated with changes in mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and land use. Our analyses provide evidence for a threshold response, with declining frequency of severe cold winter events allowing for poleward expansion of mangroves. Future warming may result in increases in mangrove cover beyond current latitudinal limits of mangrove forests, thereby altering the structure and function of these important coastal ecosystems. PMID:24379379

  2. A Multivariate Statistical Approach based on a Dynamic Moving Storms (DMS) Generator for Estimating the Frequency of Extreme Storm Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, N. Z.; Gao, S.

    2015-12-01

    Challenges of fully considering the complexity among spatially and temporally varied rainfall always exist in flood frequency analysis. Conventional approaches that simplify the complexity of spatiotemporal interactions generally undermine their impacts on flood risks. A previously developed stochastic storm generator called Dynamic Moving Storms (DMS) aims to address the highly-dependent nature of precipitation field: spatial variability, temporal variability, and movement of the storm. The authors utilize a multivariate statistical approach based on DMS to estimate the occurrence probability or frequency of extreme storm events. Fifteen years of radar rainfall data is used to generate a large number of synthetic storms as basis for statistical assessment. Two parametric retrieval algorithms are developed to recognize rain cells and track storm motions respectively. The resulted parameters are then used to establish probability density functions (PDFs), which are fitted to parametric distribution functions for further Monte Carlo simulations. Consequently, over 1,000,000 synthetic storms are generated based on twelve retrieved parameters for integrated risk assessment and ensemble forecasts. Furthermore, PDFs for parameters are used to calculate joint probabilities based on 2-dimensional Archimedean-Copula functions to determine the occurrence probabilities of extreme events. The approach is validated on the Upper Trinity River watershed and the generated results are compared with those from traditional rainfall frequency studies (i.e. Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves, and Areal Reduction Factors).

  3. Estimating least-developed countries’ vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years

    PubMed Central

    Patt, Anthony G.; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

    2010-01-01

    When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries’ exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries’ own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation. PMID:20080585

  4. Method of estimating pulse response using an impedance spectrum

    DOEpatents

    Morrison, John L; Morrison, William H; Christophersen, Jon P; Motloch, Chester G

    2014-10-21

    Electrochemical Impedance Spectrum data are used to predict pulse performance of an energy storage device. The impedance spectrum may be obtained in-situ. A simulation waveform includes a pulse wave with a period greater than or equal to the lowest frequency used in the impedance measurement. Fourier series coefficients of the pulse train can be obtained. The number of harmonic constituents in the Fourier series are selected so as to appropriately resolve the response, but the maximum frequency should be less than or equal to the highest frequency used in the impedance measurement. Using a current pulse as an example, the Fourier coefficients of the pulse are multiplied by the impedance spectrum at corresponding frequencies to obtain Fourier coefficients of the voltage response to the desired pulse. The Fourier coefficients of the response are then summed and reassembled to obtain the overall time domain estimate of the voltage using the Fourier series analysis.

  5. Ultramarathon is an outstanding model for the study of adaptive responses to extreme load and stress

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Ultramarathons comprise any sporting event involving running longer than the traditional marathon length of 42.195 km (26.2 miles). Studies on ultramarathon participants can investigate the acute consequences of ultra-endurance exercise on inflammation and cardiovascular or renal consequences, as well as endocrine/energetic aspects, and examine the tissue recovery process over several days of extreme physical load. In a study published in BMC Medicine, Schütz et al. followed 44 ultramarathon runners over 4,487 km from South Italy to North Cape, Norway (the Trans Europe Foot Race 2009) and recorded daily sets of data from magnetic resonance imaging, psychometric, body composition and biological measurements. The findings will allow us to better understand the timecourse of degeneration/regeneration of some lower leg tissues such as knee joint cartilage, to differentiate running-induced from age-induced pathologies (for example, retropatelar arthritis) and finally to assess the interindividual susceptibility to injuries. Moreover, it will also provide new information about the complex interplay between cerebral adaptations/alterations and hormonal influences resulting from endurance exercise and provide data on the dose-response relationship between exercise and brain structure/function. Overall, this study represents a unique attempt to investigate the limits of the adaptive response of human bodies. Please see related article: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/10/78 PMID:22812424

  6. Preventive antioxidant responses to extreme oxygen level fluctuation in a subterranean crustacean.

    PubMed

    Lawniczak, M; Romestaing, C; Roussel, D; Maazouzi, C; Renault, D; Hervant, F

    2013-06-01

    The principal aim of this work was to explore the responses of the groundwater crustacean Niphargus rhenorhodanensis to oxidative stress caused by short- and long-term drastic variations in oxygen level. To this end, we investigated thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) levels and anti-oxidative enzyme (SOD and GPx) activities during 24 h anoxia and post-anoxia recovery, and during 10 days of severe hypoxia and post-hypoxia recovery. We observed a decrease in TBARS amounts during recovery from severe hypoxia. Parallel to these results, we observed an overactivation of SOD activity after a 24 h anoxic stress. GPx activity measured at the end of anoxia or severe hypoxia and in the early hours of post-stress recovery also showed an overactivation compared to the control group. We can hypothesize that this overproduction of GPx corresponded to an anticipatory mechanism coping with the overproduction of reactive oxygen species (ROS) during the recovery phase in subterranean animals. This response could be considered as a major asset for life in alternately normoxic and hypoxic conditions, and therefore in extreme biotopes such as groundwaters.

  7. Apoptosis-like death, an extreme SOS response in Escherichia coli.

    PubMed

    Erental, Ariel; Kalderon, Ziva; Saada, Ann; Smith, Yoav; Engelberg-Kulka, Hanna

    2014-07-15

    In bacteria, SOS is a global response to DNA damage, mediated by the recA-lexA genes, resulting in cell cycle arrest, DNA repair, and mutagenesis. Previously, we reported that Escherichia coli responds to DNA damage via another recA-lexA-mediated pathway resulting in programmed cell death (PCD). We called it apoptosis-like death (ALD) because it is characterized by membrane depolarization and DNA fragmentation, which are hallmarks of eukaryotic mitochondrial apoptosis. Here, we show that ALD is an extreme SOS response that occurs only under conditions of severe DNA damage. Furthermore, we found that ALD is characterized by additional hallmarks of eukaryotic mitochondrial apoptosis, including (i) rRNA degradation by the endoribonuclease YbeY, (ii) upregulation of a unique set of genes that we called extensive-damage-induced (Edin) genes, (iii) a decrease in the activities of complexes I and II of the electron transport chain, and (iv) the formation of high levels of OH˙ through the Fenton reaction, eventually resulting in cell death. Our genetic and molecular studies on ALD provide additional insight for the evolution of mitochondria and the apoptotic pathway in eukaryotes. Importance: The SOS response is the first described and the most studied bacterial response to DNA damage. It is mediated by a set of two genes, recA-lexA, and it results in DNA repair and thereby in the survival of the bacterial culture. We have shown that Escherichia coli responds to DNA damage by an additional recA-lexA-mediated pathway resulting in an apoptosis-like death (ALD). Apoptosis is a mode of cell death that has previously been reported only in eukaryotes. We found that E. coli ALD is characterized by several hallmarks of eukaryotic mitochondrial apoptosis. Altogether, our results revealed that recA-lexA is a DNA damage response coordinator that permits two opposite responses: life, mediated by the SOS, and death, mediated by the ALD. The choice seems to be a function of the degree

  8. Hydrogeomorphic response to extreme rainfall in headwater systems: Flash floods and debris flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borga, Marco; Stoffel, Markus; Marchi, Lorenzo; Marra, Francesco; Jakob, Matthias

    2014-10-01

    Flash floods and debris flows develop at space and time scales that conventional observation systems for rainfall, streamflow and sediment discharge are not able to monitor. Consequently, the atmospheric, hydrological and geomorphic controls on these hydrogeomorphic processes are poorly understood, leading to highly uncertain warning and risk management. On the other hand, remote sensing of precipitation and numerical weather predictions have become the basis of several flood forecasting systems, enabling increasingly accurate detection of hazardous events. The objective of this paper is to provide a review on current European and international research on early warning systems for flash floods and debris flows. We expand upon these themes by identifying: (a) the state of the art; (b) knowledge gaps; and (c) suggested research directions to advance warning capabilities for extreme hydrogeomorphic processes. We also suggest three areas in which advancements in science will have immediate and important practical consequence, namely development of rainfall estimation and nowcasting schemes suited to the specific space-time scales, consolidating physical, engineering and social datasets of flash floods and debris-flows, integration of methods for multiple hydrogeomorphic hazard warning.

  9. Limited information estimation of the diffusion-based item response theory model for responses and response times.

    PubMed

    Ranger, Jochen; Kuhn, Jörg-Tobias; Szardenings, Carsten

    2016-05-01

    Psychological tests are usually analysed with item response models. Recently, some alternative measurement models have been proposed that were derived from cognitive process models developed in experimental psychology. These models consider the responses but also the response times of the test takers. Two such models are the Q-diffusion model and the D-diffusion model. Both models can be calibrated with the diffIRT package of the R statistical environment via marginal maximum likelihood (MML) estimation. In this manuscript, an alternative approach to model calibration is proposed. The approach is based on weighted least squares estimation and parallels the standard estimation approach in structural equation modelling. Estimates are determined by minimizing the discrepancy between the observed and the implied covariance matrix. The estimator is simple to implement, consistent, and asymptotically normally distributed. Least squares estimation also provides a test of model fit by comparing the observed and implied covariance matrix. The estimator and the test of model fit are evaluated in a simulation study. Although parameter recovery is good, the estimator is less efficient than the MML estimator.

  10. Hormonal responses to extreme fasting in subantarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus tropicalis) pups.

    PubMed

    Verrier, Delphine; Atkinson, Shannon; Guinet, Christophe; Groscolas, René; Arnould, John P Y

    2012-04-15

    Surviving prolonged fasting implies closely regulated alterations in fuel provisioning to meet metabolic requirements, while preserving homeostasis. Little is known, however, of the endocrine regulations governing such metabolic adaptations in naturally fasting free-ranging animals. The hormonal responses to natural prolonged fasting and how they correlate to the metabolic adaptations observed, were investigated in subantarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus tropicalis) pups, which, because of the intermittent pattern of maternal attendance, repeatedly endure exceptionally long fasting episodes throughout their development (1-3 mo). Phase I fasting was characterized by a dramatic decrease in plasma insulin, glucagon, leptin, and total l-thyroxine (T(4)) associated with reductions in mass-specific resting metabolic rate (RMR), plasma triglycerides, glycerol, and urea-to-creatine ratio, while nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA) and β-OHB increased. In contrast, the metabolic steady-state of phase II fasting reached within 6 days was associated with minimal concentrations of insulin, glucagon, and leptin; unchanged cortisol and triiodothyronine (T(3)); and moderately increased T(4). The early fall in insulin and leptin may mediate the shift to the strategy of energy conservation, protein sparing, and primary reliance on body lipids observed in response to the cessation of feeding. In contrast to the typical mammalian starvation response, nonelevated cortisol and minimal glucagon levels may contribute to body protein preservation and downregulation of catabolic pathways, in general. Furthermore, thyroid hormones may be involved in a process of energy conservation, independent of pups' nutritional state. These original hormonal settings might reflect an adaptation to the otariid repeated fasting pattern and emphasize the crucial importance of a tight physiological control over metabolism to survive extreme energetic constraints.

  11. Estimating Hemodynamic Responses to the Wingate Test Using Thoracic Impedance

    PubMed Central

    Astorino, Todd A.; Bovee, Curtis; DeBoe, Ashley

    2015-01-01

    Techniques including direct Fick and Doppler echocardiography are frequently used to assess hemodynamic responses to exercise. Thoracic impedance has been shown to be a noninvasive alternative to these methods for assessing these responses during graded exercise to exhaustion, yet its feasibility during supramaximal bouts of exercise is relatively unknown. We used thoracic impedance to estimate stroke volume (SV) and cardiac output (CO) during the Wingate test (WAnT) and compared these values to those from graded exercise testing (GXT). Active men (n = 9) and women (n = 7) (mean age = 24.8 ± 5.9 yr) completed two Wingate tests and two graded exercise tests on a cycle ergometer. During exercise, heart rate (HR), SV, and CO were continuously estimated using thoracic impedance. Repeated measures analysis of variance was used to identify potential differences in hemodynamic responses across protocols. Results: Maximal SV (138.6 ± 37.4 mL vs. 135.6 ± 26.9 mL) and CO (24.5 ± 6.1 L·min-1 vs. 23.7 ± 5.1 L·min-1) were similar (p > 0.05) between repeated Wingate tests. Mean maximal HR was higher (p < 0.01) for GXT (185 ± 7 b·min-1) versus WAnT (177 ± 11 b·min-1), and mean SV was higher in response to WAnT (137.1 ± 32.1 mL) versus GXT (123.0 ± 32.0 mL), leading to similar maximal cardiac output between WAnT and GXT (23.9 ± 5.6 L·min-1 vs. 22.5 ± 6.0 L·min-1). Our data show no difference in hemodynamic responses in response to repeated administrations of the Wingate test. In addition, the Wingate test elicits similar cardiac output compared to progressive cycling to VO2max. Key points Measurement of cardiac output (CO), the rate of oxygen transport delivered by the heart to skeletal muscle, is not widely-employed in Exercise Physiology due to the level of difficulty and invasiveness characteristic of most techniques used to measure this variable. Nevertheless, thoracic impedance has been shown to provide a noninvasive and simpler approach to continuously

  12. Investigating extreme flood response to Holocene palaeoclimate in the Chinese monsoonal zone: A palaeoflood case study from the Hanjiang River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Yongqiang; Huang, Chun Chang; Pang, Jiangli; Zha, Xiaochun; Zhou, Yali; Wang, Longsheng; Zhang, Yuzhu; Hu, Guiming

    2015-06-01

    Palaeoflood events recorded by slackwater deposits (SWDs) were investigated extensively by sedimentological criteria of palaeohydrology along the upper Hanjiang River valley. Modern flood SWDs were collected for comparison with palaeoflood SWD in the same reaches. Three typical palaeoflood SWDs were observed within Holocene loess-soil blanket on the first river terrace land. The grain size distributions of palaeoflood SWDs are similar to modern flood SWDs, whereas they are different from eolian loess and soil. Palaeoflood SWD lies in three major pedo-stratigraphic boundaries (TS/L0, L0/S0, and S0/Lt) in the Holocene loess-soil profiles. The chronology of three palaeoflood episodes was established by OSL dating and pedo-stratigraphic correlation with the well-dated Holocene loess-soil profiles in the upper Hanjiang River basin. Holocene palaeoflood events were dated to 9500-8500, 3200-2800, and 1800-1700 a B.P., respectively. Palaeoflood discharges were estimated by the palaeoflood model (i.e., slope-area method and step-backwater method). The highest discharges are 51,680-53,950 m3 s- 1 at the 11,500-time scale in the Xunyang reach of the upper Hanjiang River valley. Holocene extraordinary hydroclimatic events in the Hanjiang River often result from abnormal atmospheric circulations from Southwest monsoons in the Chinese monsoonal zone. These results provide a regional expression of extreme flood response to Holocene palaeoclimate to understand the effects of global climatic variations on the river system dynamics.

  13. A comprehensive classification of anomalous circulation patterns responsible for persistent precipitation extremes in South China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Hui; Zhai, Panmao; Chen, Yang

    2016-06-01

    Based on observational precipitation at 63 stations in South China and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data during 1951-2010, a cluster analysis is performed to classify large-scale circulation patterns responsible for persistent precipitation extremes (PPEs) that are independent of the influence of tropical cyclones (TCs). Conceptual schematics depicting configurations among planetary-scale systems at different levels are established for each type. The PPEs free from TCs account for 38.6% of total events, and they tend to occur during April-August and October, with the highest frequency observed in June. Corresponding circulation patterns during June-August can be mainly categorized into two types, i.e., summer-I type and summer-II type. In summer-I type, the South Asian high takes the form of a zonal-belt type. The axis of upstream westerly jets is northwest-oriented. At the middle level, the westerly jets at midlatitudes extend zonally. Along the southern edge of the westerly jet, synoptic eddies steer cold air to penetrate southward; the Bay of Bengal (BOB) trough is located to the north; a shallow trough resides over coastal areas of western South China; and an intensified western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) extends westward. The anomalous moisture is mainly contributed by horizontal advection via southwesterlies around 20 °N and southeasterlies from the southern flange of the WPSH. Moisture convergence maximizes in coastal regions of eastern South China, which is the very place recording extreme precipitation. In summer-II type, the South Asian high behaves as a western-center type. The BOB trough is much deeper, accompanied by a cyclone to its north; and a lower-level trough appears in northwestern parts of South China. Different to summer-I type, moisture transport via southwesterlies is mostly responsible for the anomalous moisture in this type. The moisture convergence zones cover Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan, matching well with the areas of flooding. It is

  14. Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haigh, Ivan D.; Wijeratne, E. M. S.; MacPherson, Leigh R.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Mason, Matthew S.; Crompton, Ryan P.; George, Steve

    2014-01-01

    The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical

  15. Maximum likelihood estimation for cytogenetic dose-response curves

    SciTech Connect

    Frome, E.L; DuFrain, R.J.

    1983-10-01

    In vitro dose-response curves are used to describe the relation between the yield of dicentric chromosome aberrations and radiation dose for human lymphocytes. The dicentric yields follow the Poisson distribution, and the expected yield depends on both the magnitude and the temporal distribution of the dose for low LET radiation. A general dose-response model that describes this relation has been obtained by Kellerer and Rossi using the theory of dual radiation action. The yield of elementary lesions is kappa(..gamma..d + g(t, tau)d/sup 2/), where t is the time and d is dose. The coefficient of the d/sup 2/ term is determined by the recovery function and the temporal mode of irradiation. Two special cases of practical interest are split-dose and continuous exposure experiments, and the resulting models are intrinsically nonlinear in the parameters. A general purpose maximum likelihood estimation procedure is described and illustrated with numerical examples from both experimental designs. Poisson regression analysis is used for estimation, hypothesis testing, and regression diagnostics. Results are discussed in the context of exposure assessment procedures for both acute and chronic human radiation exposure.

  16. Ambulance call-outs and response times in Birmingham and the impact of extreme weather and climate change.

    PubMed

    Thornes, John Edward; Fisher, Paul Anthony; Rayment-Bishop, Tracy; Smith, Christopher

    2014-03-01

    Although there has been some research on the impact of extreme weather on the number of ambulance call-out incidents, especially heat waves, there has been very little research on the impact of cold weather on ambulance call-outs and response times. In the UK, there is a target response rate of 75% of life threatening incidents (Category A) that must be responded to within 8 min. This paper compares daily air temperature data with ambulance call-out data for Birmingham over a 5-year period (2007-2011). A significant relationship between extreme weather and increased ambulance call-out and response times can clearly be shown. Both hot and cold weather have a negative impact on response times. During the heat wave of August 2003, the number of ambulance call-outs increased by up to a third. In December 2010 (the coldest December for more than 100 years), the response rate fell below 50% for 3 days in a row (18 December-20 December 2010) with a mean response time of 15 min. For every reduction of air temperature by 1°C there was a reduction of 1.3% in performance. Improved weather forecasting and the take up of adaptation measures, such as the use of winter tyres, are suggested for consideration as management tools to improve ambulance response resilience during extreme weather. Also it is suggested that ambulance response times could be used as part of the syndromic surveillance system at the Health Protection Agency.

  17. Controls on coastal dune morphology, shoreline erosion and barrier island response to extreme storms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Houser, C.; Hapke, C.; Hamilton, S.

    2008-01-01

    The response of a barrier island to an extreme storm depends in part on the surge elevation relative to the height and extent of the foredunes which can exhibit considerable variability alongshore. While it is recognized that alongshore variations in dune height and width direct barrier island response to storm surge, the underlying causes of the alongshore variation remain poorly understood. This study examines the alongshore variation in dune morphology along a 11??km stretch of Santa Rosa Island in northwest Florida and relates the variation in morphology to the response of the island during Hurricane Ivan and historic and storm-related rates of shoreline erosion. The morphology of the foredune and backbarrier dunes was characterized before and after Hurricane Ivan using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and related through Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). The height and extent of the foredune, and the presence and relative location of the backbarrier dunes, varied alongshore at discrete length scales (of ~ 750, 1450 and 4550??m) that are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Cospectral analysis suggests that the variation in dune morphology is correlated with transverse ridges on the inner-shelf, the backbarrier cuspate headlands, and the historical and storm-related trends in shoreline change. Sections of the coast with little to no dune development before Hurricane Ivan were observed in the narrowest portions of the island (between headlands), west of the transverse ridges. Overwash penetration tended to be larger in these areas and island breaching was common, leaving the surface close to the watertable and covered by a lag of shell and gravel. In contrast, large foredunes and the backbarrier dunes were observed at the widest sections of the island (the cuspate headlands) and at crest of the transverse ridges. Due to the large dunes and the presence of the backbarrier dunes, these areas experienced less overwash penetration

  18. Multi-trophic level response to extreme metal contamination from gold mining in a subarctic lake.

    PubMed

    Thienpont, Joshua R; Korosi, Jennifer B; Hargan, Kathryn E; Williams, Trisha; Eickmeyer, David C; Kimpe, Linda E; Palmer, Michael J; Smol, John P; Blais, Jules M

    2016-08-17

    Giant Mine, located in the city of Yellowknife (Northwest Territories, Canada), is a dramatic example of subarctic legacy contamination from mining activities, with remediation costs projected to exceed $1 billion. Operational between 1948 and 2004, gold extraction at Giant Mine released large quantities of arsenic and metals from the roasting of arsenopyrite ore. We examined the long-term ecological effects of roaster emissions on Pocket Lake, a small lake at the edge of the Giant Mine lease boundary, using a spectrum of palaeoenvironmental approaches. A dated sedimentary profile tracked striking increases (approx. 1700%) in arsenic concentrations coeval with the initiation of Giant Mine operations. Large increases in mercury, antimony and lead also occurred. Synchronous changes in biological indicator assemblages from multiple aquatic trophic levels, in both benthic and pelagic habitats, indicate dramatic ecological responses to extreme metal(loid) contamination. At the peak of contamination, all Cladocera, a keystone group of primary consumers, as well as all planktonic diatoms, were functionally lost from the sediment record. No biological recovery has been inferred, despite the fact that the bulk of metal(loid) emissions occurred more than 50 years ago, and the cessation of all ore-roasting activities in Yellowknife in 1999. PMID:27534958

  19. Short-term cropland responses to temperature extreme events during late winter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, several studies have focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to extreme events. Most of this research has been conducted in natural ecosystems, but few have considered agro-ecosystems. In this study, we investigated the impact of a manipulated warmer or cooler late winter-early spring on the carbon budget and final harvest of a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.). Soil temperature was altered by manipulating soil albedo by covering the soil surface with a layer of inert silica gravel. We tested three treatments: cooling (Co), warming (W), mix (M) and control (C). An automated system continuously measured soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil temperature profiles, and soil water content across the entire year in each plot. Phenological phases were periodically assessed and final harvest was measured in each plot. Results showed that treatments had only a transient effect on daily Rh rates which did not result in a total annual carbon budget significantly different from control, even though cooling showed a significant reduction in final harvest. We also observed anticipation in seed germination in both W and M treatments and a delay in germination for Co. Moreover, plant density and growth increased in W and M and decreased in Co.

  20. Short-term cropland responses to temperature extreme events during late winter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.

    2013-08-01

    In recent years, several studies have focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to extreme events. Most of this research has been conducted in natural ecosystems, but few have considered agroecosystems. In this study, we investigated the impact of a manipulated warmer or cooler late winter/early spring on the carbon budget and final harvest of a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.). Soil temperature was altered by manipulating soil albedo by covering the soil surface with a layer of inert silica gravel. We tested three treatments - cooling (Co), warming (W), mix (M) - and control (C). An automated system continuously measured soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil temperature profiles, and soil water content across the entire year in each plot. Phenological phases were periodically assessed and final harvest was measured in each plot. Results showed that treatments had only a transient effect on daily Rh rates, which did not result in a total annual carbon budget significantly different from control, even though cooling showed a significant reduction in final harvest. We also observed anticipation in emergence in both W and M treatments and a delay in emergence for Co. Moreover, plant density and growth increased in W and M and decreased in Co. In conclusion, from the results of our experiment we can assert that an increase in the frequency of both heat and cold waves is unlikely to have large effects on the overall annual carbon balance of irrigated croplands.

  1. The fire-walker's high: affect and physiological responses in an extreme collective ritual.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Ronald; Xygalatas, Dimitris; Mitkidis, Panagiotis; Reddish, Paul; Tok, Penny; Konvalinka, Ivana; Bulbulia, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    How do people feel during extreme collective rituals? Despite longstanding speculation, few studies have attempted to quantify ritual experiences. Using a novel pre/post design, we quantified physiological fluctuations (heart rates) and self-reported affective states from a collective fire-walking ritual in a Mauritian Hindu community. Specifically, we compared changes in levels of happiness, fatigue, and heart rate reactivity among high-ordeal participants (fire-walkers), low-ordeal participants (non-fire-walking participants with familial bonds to fire-walkers) and spectators (unrelated/unknown to the fire-walkers). We observed that fire-walkers experienced the highest increase in heart rate and reported greater happiness post-ritual compared to low-ordeal participants and spectators. Low-ordeal participants reported increased fatigue after the ritual compared to both fire-walkers and spectators, suggesting empathetic identification effects. Thus, witnessing the ritualistic suffering of loved ones may be more exhausting than experiencing suffering oneself. The findings demonstrate that the level of ritual involvement is important for shaping affective responses to collective rituals. Enduring a ritual ordeal is associated with greater happiness, whereas observing a loved-one endure a ritual ordeal is associated with greater fatigue post-ritual. PMID:24586315

  2. The Fire-Walker’s High: Affect and Physiological Responses in an Extreme Collective Ritual

    PubMed Central

    Fischer, Ronald; Xygalatas, Dimitris; Mitkidis, Panagiotis; Reddish, Paul; Tok, Penny; Konvalinka, Ivana; Bulbulia, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    How do people feel during extreme collective rituals? Despite longstanding speculation, few studies have attempted to quantify ritual experiences. Using a novel pre/post design, we quantified physiological fluctuations (heart rates) and self-reported affective states from a collective fire-walking ritual in a Mauritian Hindu community. Specifically, we compared changes in levels of happiness, fatigue, and heart rate reactivity among high-ordeal participants (fire-walkers), low-ordeal participants (non-fire-walking participants with familial bonds to fire-walkers) and spectators (unrelated/unknown to the fire-walkers). We observed that fire-walkers experienced the highest increase in heart rate and reported greater happiness post-ritual compared to low-ordeal participants and spectators. Low-ordeal participants reported increased fatigue after the ritual compared to both fire-walkers and spectators, suggesting empathetic identification effects. Thus, witnessing the ritualistic suffering of loved ones may be more exhausting than experiencing suffering oneself. The findings demonstrate that the level of ritual involvement is important for shaping affective responses to collective rituals. Enduring a ritual ordeal is associated with greater happiness, whereas observing a loved-one endure a ritual ordeal is associated with greater fatigue post-ritual. PMID:24586315

  3. The fire-walker's high: affect and physiological responses in an extreme collective ritual.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Ronald; Xygalatas, Dimitris; Mitkidis, Panagiotis; Reddish, Paul; Tok, Penny; Konvalinka, Ivana; Bulbulia, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    How do people feel during extreme collective rituals? Despite longstanding speculation, few studies have attempted to quantify ritual experiences. Using a novel pre/post design, we quantified physiological fluctuations (heart rates) and self-reported affective states from a collective fire-walking ritual in a Mauritian Hindu community. Specifically, we compared changes in levels of happiness, fatigue, and heart rate reactivity among high-ordeal participants (fire-walkers), low-ordeal participants (non-fire-walking participants with familial bonds to fire-walkers) and spectators (unrelated/unknown to the fire-walkers). We observed that fire-walkers experienced the highest increase in heart rate and reported greater happiness post-ritual compared to low-ordeal participants and spectators. Low-ordeal participants reported increased fatigue after the ritual compared to both fire-walkers and spectators, suggesting empathetic identification effects. Thus, witnessing the ritualistic suffering of loved ones may be more exhausting than experiencing suffering oneself. The findings demonstrate that the level of ritual involvement is important for shaping affective responses to collective rituals. Enduring a ritual ordeal is associated with greater happiness, whereas observing a loved-one endure a ritual ordeal is associated with greater fatigue post-ritual.

  4. Three responses of wetland conditions to climatic extremes in the Prairie Pothole Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cressey, Ryann L.; Austin, Jane; Stafford, Joshua D.

    2016-01-01

    Wetlands in central North Dakota were revisited after 50 years to assess changes following extreme drought and a prolonged wet period. We compared data collected during 1961–1966 to current (2013–2014) wetland conditions. We revisited 80 wetlands in 2013 and 2014 across three study areas and measured wetland area, ponded-water depth, and specific conductance. Wetlands at the three study areas responded to prolonged wet conditions in one of three ways. Wetlands at Crystal Springs became larger, and had deeper ponds of lower specific conductance in 2013–14 compared to the 1960s. Wetlands at Cottonwood were larger with deeper ponds of slightly higher specific conductance in 2013–2014. Wetlands at Mt. Moriah had only subtle changes in size, pond depth, and specific conductance between periods. Prolonged wet conditions led to merging of most wetlands (defined as the outer edge of wet-meadow vegetation) at Crystal Springs and a few wetlands at Cottonwood. Low topographic relief at Crystal Springs and Cottonwood contributed to storage of excess water in wetlands with associated responses to prolonged wet conditions. In contrast, higher topographic relief and natural outlets into two intermittent streams at Mt. Moriah resulted in wetlands being less impacted by prolonged wet conditions.

  5. Estimating ground-level neutron-flux enhancements in the extreme cosmic-ray events of the next 100, 1000 and 10 000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mason, Paolo

    2015-12-01

    Estimates are proposed of the enhancement in neutron flux which may be experienced at ground level in cosmic-ray events of extreme magnitude over the next century, millennium and ten millennia. The estimates are based on a points-over-threshold analysis of hourly neutron counts measured over the last decades by nine neutron-monitor stations located in Europe, North America and Antarctica. The present results are in good agreement with recent studies of extreme solar events based on the direct observation of flares and the abundance of cosmogenic nuclides in terrestrial and lunar archives.

  6. The Mediterranean Benthic Herbivores Show Diverse Responses to Extreme Storm Disturbances

    PubMed Central

    Pagès, Jordi F.; Gera, Alessandro; Romero, Javier; Farina, Simone; Garcia-Rubies, Antoni; Hereu, Bernat; Alcoverro, Teresa

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophic storms have been observed to be one of the major elements in shaping the standing structure of marine benthic ecosystems. Yet, little is known about the effect of catastrophic storms on ecosystem processes. Specifically, herbivory is the main control mechanism of macrophyte communities in the Mediterranean, with two main key herbivores: the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus and the fish Sarpa salpa. Consequently, the effects of extreme storm events on these two herbivores (at the population level and on their behaviour) may be critical for the functioning of the ecosystem. With the aim of filling this gap, we took advantage of two parallel studies that were conducted before, during and after an unexpected catastrophic storm event. Specifically, fish and sea urchin abundance were assessed before and after the storm in monitored fixed areas (one site for sea urchin assessment and 3 sites for fish visual transects). Additionally, we investigated the behavioural response to the disturbance of S. salpa fishes that had been tagged with acoustic transmitters. Given their low mobility, sea urchins were severely affected by the storm (ca. 50% losses) with higher losses in those patches with a higher density of sea urchins. This may be due to a limited availability of refuges within each patch. In contrast, fish abundance was not affected, as fish were able to move to protected areas (i.e. deeper) as a result of the high mobility of this species. Our results highlight that catastrophic storms differentially affect the two dominant macroherbivores of rocky macroalgal and seagrass systems due to differences in mobility and escaping strategies. This study emphasises that under catastrophic disturbances, the presence of different responses among the key herbivores of the system may be critical for the maintenance of the herbivory function. PMID:23667512

  7. Oscillation Responses to an Extreme Weather Event from a Deep Moored Observing System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Z.; Dimarco, S. F.; Stoessel, M. M.; Zhang, X.; Ingle, S.

    2011-12-01

    In June 2007 tropical Cyclone Gonu passed directly over an ocean observing system consisting of four, deep autonomous mooring stations along the 3000 m isobath in the northern Arabian Sea. Gonu was the largest cyclone known to have occurred in the Arabian Sea or to strike the Arabian Peninsula. The mooring system was designed by Lighthouse R & D Enterprises, Inc. and installed in cooperation with the Oman Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries Wealth. The instruments on the moorings continuously recorded water velocities, temperature, conductivity, pressure, dissolved oxygen and turbidity at multiple depths and at hourly intervals during the storm. Near-inertial oscillations at all moorings from thermocline to seafloor are coincident with the arrival of Gonu. Sub-inertial oscillations with periods of 2-10 days are recorded at the post-storm relaxation stage of Gonu, primarily in the thermocline. These oscillations consist of warm, saline water masses, likely originating from the Persian Gulf. Prominent 12.7-day sub-inertial waves, measured at a station ~300 km offshore, are bottom-intensified and have characteristics of baroclinic, topographically-trapped waves. Theoretical results from a topographically-trapped wave model are in a good agreement with the observed 12.7-day waves. The wavelength of the 12.7-day waves is about 590 km calculated from the dispersion relationship. Further analysis suggests that a resonant standing wave is responsible for trapping the 12.7-day wave energy inside the Sea of Oman basin. The observational results reported here are the first measurements of deepwater responses to a tropical cyclone in the Sea of Oman/Arabian Sea. Our study demonstrates the utility of sustained monitoring for studying the impact of extreme weather events on the ocean.

  8. Soliciting Feedback from Resource Managers to Inform Response to Extreme Event Impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bedsworth, L. W.

    2014-12-01

    To date, extreme events have been defined by scientists through a top-down approach, relying on observations for current extremes and climate model projections based on future scenarios for their expected changes. These abstract definitions of extreme events are based on a corresponding characterization of what is "normal" and perhaps the choice of a threshold (e.g., a percentile of a historical distribution for a given climate variable), beyond which would represent an extreme event. However, there are not necessarily direct connections between these definitions and what is considered "extreme" in terms of impacts that challenge resource management. Several researchers have suggested that extreme event definitions would also be informed by input from on-the-ground resource managers who are familiar with the systems being impacted, the climate conditions that pose risks to those systems, and their resilience and adaptive capacity. This research will present preliminary survey work designed to solicit input from air and water quality managers in terms of what is considered an extreme event, how these events have been weathered in the past, and planned for in the future. The survey is based on literature review, interviews with air and water quality managers in California, and outreach to the scientific community. This work is the first step of a multistage research effort to link input from resource managers with scientific information to better inform air and water quality management and impacts of extreme events under a changing climate.

  9. Deciphering landscape complexity to predict (non)linear responses to extreme climatic events

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Extreme events are increasing in frequency and magnitude for many landscapes globally. Ecologically, most of the focus on extreme climatic events has been on effects of either short-term pulses (floods, freezes) or long-term drought. Multi-year increases in precipitation are also occurring with litt...

  10. Extreme Response Style in Recurrent and Chronically Depressed Patients: Change with Antidepressant Administration and Stability during Continuation Treatment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Timothy J.; Feldman, Greg; Harley, Rebecca; Fresco, David M.; Graves, Lesley; Holmes, Avram; Bogdan, Ryan; Papakostas, George I.; Bohn, Laurie; Lury, R. Alana; Fava, Maurizio; Segal, Zindel V.

    2007-01-01

    The authors examined extreme response style in recurrently and chronically depressed patients, assessing its role in therapeutic outcome. During the acute phase, outpatients with major depressive disorder (N = 384) were treated with fluoxetine for 8 weeks. Remitted patients (n = 132) entered a continuation phase during which their fluoxetine dose…

  11. Evaluating environmental joint extremes for the offshore industry using the conditional extremes model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ewans, Kevin; Jonathan, Philip

    2014-02-01

    Understanding extreme ocean environments and their interaction with fixed and floating structures is critical for the design of offshore and coastal facilities. The joint effect of various ocean variables on extreme responses of offshore structures is fundamental in determining the design loads. For example, it is known that mean values of wave periods tend to increase with increasing storm intensity, and a floating system responds in a complex way to both variables. Specification of joint extremes in design criteria has often been somewhat ad hoc, being based on fairly arbitrary combinations of extremes of variables estimated independently. Such approaches are even outlined in design guidelines. Mathematically more consistent estimates of the joint occurrence of extreme environmental variables fall into two camps in the offshore industry - response-based and response-independent. Both are outlined here, with emphasis on response-independent methods, particularly those based on the conditional extremes model recently introduced by (Heffernan and Tawn, 2004), which has a solid theoretical motivation. We illustrate an application of the conditional extremes model to joint estimation of extreme storm peak significant wave height and peak period at a northern North Sea location, incorporating storm direction as a model covariate. We also discuss joint estimation of extreme current profiles with depth off the North West Shelf of Australia. Methods such as the conditional extremes model provide valuable additions to the metocean engineer's toolkit.

  12. Extreme events and geomorphic resilience-insight from response to the cataclysmic 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Major, J. J.

    2003-12-01

    Extreme geomorphic events affect sediment transfer, landform development, and landscape evolution in mountain environments. Less understood are the magnitude and persistence of geomorphic responses to extreme events and the impacts those events have on various geomorphic regimes. Generally, states of geomorphic disequilibrium caused by extreme as well as by lesser events are transient. Periods of geomorphic response to extreme events, however, can range from years to millennia; defining recovery and resilience of geomorphic systems, and thus the long-term impact of an extreme event, depends upon spatial scale and the geomorphic regime (e.g., sediment transport, water discharge, or their associated relationship) examined. Varying geomorphic-regime responses are highlighted by post-eruption responses to the 1980 Mount St. Helens (MSH) eruption. The cataclysmic 1980 MSH eruption altered runoff and abruptly increased sediment supply in several watersheds. In basins ranging in area from 300-1300 km2, post-eruption peakflow discharges increased by tens of percent for at least 5, and perhaps as long as 20, years. Post-eruption infiltration capacity quickly recovered a substantial proportion of pre-eruption capacity, predominant overland flow diminished rapidly, and runoff conditions approached a pre-eruption state. In comparison, post-eruption suspended-sediment yields increased by a much greater proportion, and have persisted much longer, than increased water discharges. Annual yields as much as 500 times greater than pre-eruption values were measured shortly after the eruption, and yields 10-100 times greater than pre-eruption values persist. Magnitudes and durations of post-eruption sediment delivery have varied chiefly with the nature of volcanic impact. Extraordinary suspended-sediment delivery has been greater and more persistent from zones of channel disturbance than from zones of hillslope disturbance. A classical observation in many "undisturbed" watersheds that

  13. Estimation of road profile variability from measured vehicle responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fauriat, W.; Mattrand, C.; Gayton, N.; Beakou, A.; Cembrzynski, T.

    2016-05-01

    When assessing the statistical variability of fatigue loads acting throughout the life of a vehicle, the question of the variability of road roughness naturally arises, as both quantities are strongly related. For car manufacturers, gathering information on the environment in which vehicles evolve is a long and costly but necessary process to adapt their products to durability requirements. In the present paper, a data processing algorithm is proposed in order to estimate the road profiles covered by a given vehicle, from the dynamic responses measured on this vehicle. The algorithm based on Kalman filtering theory aims at solving a so-called inverse problem, in a stochastic framework. It is validated using experimental data obtained from simulations and real measurements. The proposed method is subsequently applied to extract valuable statistical information on road roughness from an existing load characterisation campaign carried out by Renault within one of its markets.

  14. Trends in persistent seasonal-scale atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for precipitation and temperature extremes in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swain, D. L.; Horton, D. E.; Singh, D.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2015-12-01

    Long-lived anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns are often associated with surface weather extremes. This is particularly true from a hydroclimatic perspective in regions that have well-defined "wet seasons," where atmospheric anomalies that persist on a seasonal scale can lead to drought or (conversely) increase the risk of flood. Recent evidence suggests that both natural variability and global warming may be responsible for spatially and temporally heterogeneous changes in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric conditions over the past several decades. In this investigation, we assess observed trends in cool-season (Oct-May) circulation patterns over the northeastern Pacific Ocean which have historically been associated with precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We find that the occurrence of certain extreme seasonal-scale atmospheric configurations has changed substantially over the 1948-2015 period, and also that there has been a trend towards amplification of the cool-season mean state in this region. Notably, patterns similar to the persistent anticyclone associated with the extremely warm and dry conditions experienced during the ongoing 2012-2015 California drought occur more frequently in the second half of the observed record. This finding highlights the importance of examining changes in extreme and/or persistent atmospheric circulation configurations, which may exhibit different responses to natural and anthropogenic forcings than the mean state.

  15. Neuronal cellular responses to extremely low frequency electromagnetic field exposure: implications regarding oxidative stress and neurodegeneration.

    PubMed

    Reale, Marcella; Kamal, Mohammad A; Patruno, Antonia; Costantini, Erica; D'Angelo, Chiara; Pesce, Miko; Greig, Nigel H

    2014-01-01

    Neurodegenerative diseases comprise both hereditary and sporadic conditions characterized by an identifying progressive nervous system dysfunction and distinctive neuopathophysiology. The majority are of non-familial etiology and hence environmental factors and lifestyle play key roles in their pathogenesis. The extensive use of and ever increasing worldwide demand for electricity has stimulated societal and scientific interest on the environmental exposure to low frequency electromagnetic fields (EMFs) on human health. Epidemiological studies suggest a positive association between 50/60-Hz power transmission fields and leukemia or lymphoma development. Consequent to the association between EMFs and induction of oxidative stress, concerns relating to development of neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer disease (AD), have been voiced as the brain consumes the greatest fraction of oxygen and is particularly vulnerable to oxidative stress. Exposure to extremely low frequency (ELF)-EMFs are reported to alter animal behavior and modulate biological variables, including gene expression, regulation of cell survival, promotion of cellular differentiation, and changes in cerebral blood flow in aged AD transgenic mice. Alterations in inflammatory responses have also been reported, but how these actions impact human health remains unknown. We hence evaluated the effects of an electromagnetic wave (magnetic field intensity 1 mT; frequency, 50-Hz) on a well-characterized immortalized neuronal cell model, human SH-SY5Y cells. ELF-EMF exposure elevated the expession of NOS and O2(-), which were countered by compensatory changes in antioxidant catylase (CAT) activity and enzymatic kinetic parameters related to CYP-450 and CAT activity. Actions of ELF-EMFs on cytokine gene expression were additionally evaluated and found rapidly modified. Confronted with co-exposure to H2O2-induced oxidative stress, ELF-EMF proved not as well counteracted and resulted in a decline in CAT

  16. Lysosomal responses to heat-shock of seasonal temperature extremes in Cd-exposed mussels.

    PubMed

    Múgica, M; Izagirre, U; Marigómez, I

    2015-07-01

    The present study was aimed at determining the effect of temperature extremes on lysosomal biomarkers in mussels exposed to a model toxic pollutant (Cd) at different seasons. For this purpose, temperature was elevated 10°C (from 12°C to 22°C in winter and from 18°C to 28°C in summer) for a period of 6h (heat-shock) in control and Cd-exposed mussels, and then returned back to initial one. Lysosomal membrane stability and lysosomal structural changes in digestive gland were investigated. In winter, heat-shock reduced the labilisation period (LP) of the lysosomal membrane, especially in Cd-exposed mussels, and provoked transient lysosomal enlargement. LP values recovered after the heat-shock cessation but lysosomal enlargement prevailed in both experimental groups. In summer, heat-shock induced remarkable reduction in LP and lysosomal enlargement (more markedly in Cd-exposed mussels), which recovered within 3 days. Besides, whilst heat-shock effects on LP were practically identical for Cd-exposed mussels in winter and summer, the effects were longer-lasting in summer than in winter for control mussels. Thus, lysosomal responsiveness after heat-shock was higher in summer than in winter but recovery was faster as well, and therefore the consequences of the heat shock seem to be more decisive in winter. In contrast, inter-season differences were attenuated in the presence of Cd. Consequently, mussels seem to be better prepared in summer than in winter to stand short periods of abrupt temperature change; this is, however, compromised when mussels are exposed to pollutants such as Cd.

  17. Bayesian estimation of the hemodynamic response function in functional MRI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marrelec, G.; Benali, H.; Ciuciu, P.; Poline, J.-B.

    2002-05-01

    Functional MRI (fMRI) is a recent, non-invasive technique allowing for the evolution of brain processes to be dynamically followed in various cognitive or behavioral tasks. In BOLD fMRI, what is actually measured is only indirectly related to neuronal activity through a process that is still under investigation. A convenient way to analyze BOLD fMRI data consists of considering the whole brain as a system characterized by a transfer response function, called the Hemodynamic Response Function (HRF). Precise and robust estimation of the HRF has not been achieved yet: parametric methods tend to be robust but require too strong constraints on the shape of the HRF, whereas non-parametric models are not reliable since the problem is badly conditioned. We therefore propose a full Bayesian, non-parametric method that makes use of basic but relevant a priori knowledge about the underlying physiological process to make robust inference about the HRF. We show that this model is very robust to decreasing signal-to-noise ratio and to the actual noise sampling distribution. We finally apply the method to real data, revealing a wide variety of HRF shapes.

  18. Delayed responses of an Arctic ecosystem to an extreme summer: impacts on net ecosystem exchange and vegetation functioning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zona, D.; Lipson, D. A.; Richards, J. H.; Phoenix, G. K.; Liljedahl, A. K.; Ueyama, M.; Sturtevant, C. S.; Oechel, W. C.

    2014-10-01

    The importance and consequences of extreme events on the global carbon budget are inadequately understood. This includes the differential impact of extreme events on various ecosystem components, lag effects, recovery times, and compensatory processes. In the summer of 2007 in Barrow, Arctic Alaska, there were unusually high air temperatures (the fifth warmest summer over a 65-year period) and record low precipitation (the lowest over a 65-year period). These abnormal conditions were associated with substantial desiccation of the Sphagnum layer and a reduced net Sphagnum CO2 sink but did not affect net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from this wet-sedge arctic tundra ecosystem. Microbial biomass, NH4+ availability, gross primary production (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (Reco) were generally greater during this extreme summer. The cumulative ecosystem CO2 sink in 2007 was similar to the previous summers, suggesting that vascular plants were able to compensate for Sphagnum CO2 uptake, despite the impact on other functions and structure such as desiccation of the Sphagnum layer. Surprisingly, the lowest ecosystem CO2 sink over a five summer record (2005-2009) was observed during the 2008 summer (~70% lower), directly following the unusually warm and dry summer, rather than during the extreme summer. This sink reduction cannot solely be attributed to the potential damage to mosses, which typically contribute ~40% of the entire ecosystem CO2 sink. Importantly, the return to a substantial cumulative CO2 sink occurred two summers after the extreme event, which suggests a substantial resilience of this tundra ecosystem to at least an isolated extreme event. Overall, these results show a complex response of the CO2 sink and its sub-components to atypically warm and dry conditions. The impact of multiple extreme events requires further investigation.

  19. Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Diffenbaugh, Noah; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2012-01-01

    Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the Northern Hemisphere1,2, raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions1,3. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (for example, refs 1,3 5), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate- change impacts3,6,7. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the Northern Hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near- termdecadesandat2 Cglobalwarming.Theoccurrenceof extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late twenty-first century, as do the occurrences of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2 C above the pre-industrial baseline.

  20. Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming

    PubMed Central

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-01-01

    Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the northern hemisphere 1,2, raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions 1,3. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (e.g., 1,3–5), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate change impacts 3,6,7. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the northern hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe, and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near-term decades and at 2°C global warming. The occurrence of extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late-21st century, as do the occurrence of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the northern hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial baseline. PMID:24015153

  1. Estimating Derived Response Levels at the Savannah River Site for Use with Emergency Response Models

    SciTech Connect

    Simpkins, A.A.

    2002-12-06

    Emergency response computer models at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are coupled with real-time meteorological data to estimate dose to individuals downwind of accidental radioactive releases. Currently, these models estimate doses for inhalation and shine pathways, but do not consider dose due to ingestion of contaminated food products. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has developed derived intervention levels (DIL) which refer to the radionuclide-specific concentration in food present throughout the relevant period of time, with no intervention, that could lead to an individual receiving a radiation dose equal to the protective action guide. In the event of an emergency, concentrations in various food types are compared with these levels to make interdictions decisions. Prior to monitoring results being available, concentrations in the environmental media (i.e. soil), called derived response levels (DRLs), can be estimated from the DILs and directly compared with computer output to provide preliminary guidance as to whether intervention is necessary. Site-specific derived response levels (DRLs) are developed for ingestion pathways pertinent to SRS: milk, meat, fish, grain, produce, and beverage. This provides decision-makers with an additional tool for use immediately following an accident prior to the acquisition of food monitoring data.

  2. Bioenergetic response of the extreme thermoacidophile Metallosphaera sedula to thermal and nutritional stresses

    SciTech Connect

    Peeples, T.L.; Kelly, R.M.

    1995-06-01

    The bioenergetic response of the extremely thermoacidophilic archaeon Metallosphaera sedula to thermal and nutritional stresses was examined. Continuous cultures (pH 2.0, 70{degrees}C, and dilution rate of 0.05h{sup {minus}1}) in which the levels of Casamino Acids and ferrous iron in growth media were reduced by a step change of 25 to 50% resulted in higher levels of several proteins. At 70{degrees}C under optimal growth conditions, M. sedula was typically found to have a {triangle}p of approximately -190 to -200{sub m}V, the result of an intracellular {sub p}H of 5.4 (extracellular {sub p}H, 2.0) and a {triangle}{Psi} of +40 to +50 {sub m}V, (positive inside). After cells had been shifted to either 80 or 85{degrees}C, {triangle}{Psi} decreased to nearly 0 {sub m}V and internal {sub p}H approached 4.0 within 4 h of the shift; respiratory activity, as evidenced by iron speciation in parallel temperature-shifted cultures on iron pyrite, had ceased by this point. If cultures shifted from ;70 to 80{degrees}C were shifted back to 70{degrees}C after 4 h, cells were able to regain pyrite oxidation capacity and internal {sub p}H increased to nearly normal levels after 13 h. However, {triangle}{Psi} remained close to 9 {sub m}V, possibly the result of enhanced ionic exchange with media upon thermal damage to cell membranes. Further, when M. sedula was subjected to an intermediate temperature shift from 73 to 79{degrees}C, an increase in pyrite dissolution (ferric iron levels doubled) over that of the unshifted control at 73{degrees}C was noted. The improvement in leaching was attributed to the synergistic effect of chemical and biological factors. As such, periodic exposure to higher temperatures, followed by a suitable recovery period, may provide a basis for improving bioleaching rates of acidophilic chemolithotrophs. 38 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Neuronal cellular responses to extremely low frequency electromagnetic field exposure: implications regarding oxidative stress and neurodegeneration.

    PubMed

    Reale, Marcella; Kamal, Mohammad A; Patruno, Antonia; Costantini, Erica; D'Angelo, Chiara; Pesce, Miko; Greig, Nigel H

    2014-01-01

    Neurodegenerative diseases comprise both hereditary and sporadic conditions characterized by an identifying progressive nervous system dysfunction and distinctive neuopathophysiology. The majority are of non-familial etiology and hence environmental factors and lifestyle play key roles in their pathogenesis. The extensive use of and ever increasing worldwide demand for electricity has stimulated societal and scientific interest on the environmental exposure to low frequency electromagnetic fields (EMFs) on human health. Epidemiological studies suggest a positive association between 50/60-Hz power transmission fields and leukemia or lymphoma development. Consequent to the association between EMFs and induction of oxidative stress, concerns relating to development of neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer disease (AD), have been voiced as the brain consumes the greatest fraction of oxygen and is particularly vulnerable to oxidative stress. Exposure to extremely low frequency (ELF)-EMFs are reported to alter animal behavior and modulate biological variables, including gene expression, regulation of cell survival, promotion of cellular differentiation, and changes in cerebral blood flow in aged AD transgenic mice. Alterations in inflammatory responses have also been reported, but how these actions impact human health remains unknown. We hence evaluated the effects of an electromagnetic wave (magnetic field intensity 1 mT; frequency, 50-Hz) on a well-characterized immortalized neuronal cell model, human SH-SY5Y cells. ELF-EMF exposure elevated the expession of NOS and O2(-), which were countered by compensatory changes in antioxidant catylase (CAT) activity and enzymatic kinetic parameters related to CYP-450 and CAT activity. Actions of ELF-EMFs on cytokine gene expression were additionally evaluated and found rapidly modified. Confronted with co-exposure to H2O2-induced oxidative stress, ELF-EMF proved not as well counteracted and resulted in a decline in CAT

  4. Neuronal Cellular Responses to Extremely Low Frequency Electromagnetic Field Exposure: Implications Regarding Oxidative Stress and Neurodegeneration

    PubMed Central

    Reale, Marcella; Kamal, Mohammad A.; Patruno, Antonia; Costantini, Erica; D'Angelo, Chiara; Pesce, Miko; Greig, Nigel H.

    2014-01-01

    Neurodegenerative diseases comprise both hereditary and sporadic conditions characterized by an identifying progressive nervous system dysfunction and distinctive neuopathophysiology. The majority are of non-familial etiology and hence environmental factors and lifestyle play key roles in their pathogenesis. The extensive use of and ever increasing worldwide demand for electricity has stimulated societal and scientific interest on the environmental exposure to low frequency electromagnetic fields (EMFs) on human health. Epidemiological studies suggest a positive association between 50/60-Hz power transmission fields and leukemia or lymphoma development. Consequent to the association between EMFs and induction of oxidative stress, concerns relating to development of neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer disease (AD), have been voiced as the brain consumes the greatest fraction of oxygen and is particularly vulnerable to oxidative stress. Exposure to extremely low frequency (ELF)-EMFs are reported to alter animal behavior and modulate biological variables, including gene expression, regulation of cell survival, promotion of cellular differentiation, and changes in cerebral blood flow in aged AD transgenic mice. Alterations in inflammatory responses have also been reported, but how these actions impact human health remains unknown. We hence evaluated the effects of an electromagnetic wave (magnetic field intensity 1mT; frequency, 50-Hz) on a well-characterized immortalized neuronal cell model, human SH-SY5Y cells. ELF-EMF exposure elevated the expession of NOS and O2−, which were countered by compensatory changes in antioxidant catylase (CAT) activity and enzymatic kinetic parameters related to CYP-450 and CAT activity. Actions of ELF-EMFs on cytokine gene expression were additionally evaluated and found rapidly modified. Confronted with co-exposure to H2O2-induced oxidative stress, ELF-EMF proved not as well counteracted and resulted in a decline in CAT

  5. Materials response under extreme conditions: a path to materials science above 1000 GPa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Remington, Bruce

    2005-07-01

    Solid state experiments at extreme pressures (10-100 GPa) and strain rates (1.e6 -- 1.e8 1/s) are being developed on high-energy laser facilities. [1] A quasi-isentropic, ramped-pressure (shockless) drive is being developed on the Omega laser. [2] Constitutive models for solid-state strength under these conditions are tested with experiments measuring perturbation growth due to the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in solid-state samples. [3] Lattice compression, phase, and temperature are deduced from extended x-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) measurements, from which the shock-induced alpha-omega phase transition in Ti is inferred to occur on sub-nanosec time scales. [4] Time resolved lattice response and phase can be inferred from dynamic x-ray diffraction measurements, where the elastic-plastic (1D-3D) lattice relaxation in shocked Cu is shown to occur promptly (sub-nsec). [5] Large-scale MD simulations have elucidated the microscopic dynamics that underlie the 3D lattice relaxation. [6] Deformation mechanisms, such as the slip-twinning transition in shocked single-crystal Cu, are identified by examining the residual microstructure in recovered samples. [7] Designs will be shown for reaching much higher pressures, (greater than 1000 GPa), in the solid state on the NIF laser. [8] *This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract No. W-7405-ENG-48. [1] B.A. Remington et al., Met. Mat. Trans. 35A, 2587 (2004). [2] J. Edwards et al., PRL 92, 075002 (2004). [3] K.T. Lorenz et al., PoP, in press (May, 2005). [4] B. Yaakobi et al., PRL 92, 095504 (2004). [5] A. Loveridge-Smith et al., PRL 86, 2349 (2001). [6] E.M. Bringa et al., Nature, submitted (March, 2005). [7] M.S. Schneider et al., Met. Mat. Trans. 35A, 2633 (2004). [8] B.A. Remington et al., in press, ApSS 298 (July, 2005).

  6. Assessing item fit for unidimensional item response theory models using residuals from estimated item response functions.

    PubMed

    Haberman, Shelby J; Sinharay, Sandip; Chon, Kyong Hee

    2013-07-01

    Residual analysis (e.g. Hambleton & Swaminathan, Item response theory: principles and applications, Kluwer Academic, Boston, 1985; Hambleton, Swaminathan, & Rogers, Fundamentals of item response theory, Sage, Newbury Park, 1991) is a popular method to assess fit of item response theory (IRT) models. We suggest a form of residual analysis that may be applied to assess item fit for unidimensional IRT models. The residual analysis consists of a comparison of the maximum-likelihood estimate of the item characteristic curve with an alternative ratio estimate of the item characteristic curve. The large sample distribution of the residual is proved to be standardized normal when the IRT model fits the data. We compare the performance of our suggested residual to the standardized residual of Hambleton et al. (Fundamentals of item response theory, Sage, Newbury Park, 1991) in a detailed simulation study. We then calculate our suggested residuals using data from an operational test. The residuals appear to be useful in assessing the item fit for unidimensional IRT models.

  7. Genomic expression, chemotherapy response, and molecular targets in soft tissue sarcomas of the extremities: promising strategies for treatment selection.

    PubMed

    Aguiar, Samuel; da Cunha, Isabela Werneck; Lopes, Ademar

    2010-01-01

    Neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapy in soft tissue sarcomas is still controversial, especially in regards to the use of chemotherapy. The identification of predictive factors is crucial to avoid the use of chemotherapy in patients with tumors that carry genetic characteristics associated with resistance. Focusing on gene expression data, we performed a review of the actual state of knowledge in molecular predictive factors for chemotherapy response and new targets of therapy in extremity sarcomas.

  8. Preventing Violent Extremism and "Not in My Name": Theatrical Representation, Artistic Responsibility and Shared Vulnerability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bartlett, Alice

    2011-01-01

    This paper draws on my own recent experience of local artistic engagement with the British government's counter-terrorism strategy, Prevent(ing Violent Extremism). "Not in My Name" uses verbatim theatre techniques to negotiate dialogue within and across communities around a controversial agenda, and has received national acclaim for its innovative…

  9. Delayed responses of an Arctic ecosystem to an extremely dry summer: impacts on net ecosystem exchange and vegetation functioning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zona, D.; Lipson, D. A.; Richards, J. H.; Phoenix, G. K.; Liljedahl, A. K.; Ueyama, M.; Sturtevant, C. S.; Oechel, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    The importance and mode of action of extreme events on the global carbon budget are inadequately understood. This includes the differential impact of extreme events on various ecosystem components, lag effects, recovery times, and compensatory processes. Summer 2007 in Barrow, Arctic Alaska, experienced unusually high air temperatures (fifth warmest over a 65 yr period) and record low precipitation (lowest over a 65 yr period). These abnormal conditions resulted in strongly reduced net Sphagnum CO2 uptake, but no effect neither on vascular plant development nor on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from this arctic tundra ecosystem. Gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) were both generally greater during most of this extreme summer. Cumulative ecosystem C uptake in 2007 was similar to the previous summers, showing the capacity of the ecosystem to compensate in its net ecosystem exchange (NEE) despite the impact on other functions and structure such as substantial necrosis of the Sphagnum layer. Surprisingly, the lowest ecosystem C uptake (2005-2009) was observed during the 2008 summer, i.e the year directly following the extremely summer. In 2008, cumulative C uptake was ∼70% lower than prior years. This reduction cannot solely be attributed to mosses, which typically contribute with ∼40% - of the entire ecosystem C uptake. The minimum summer cumulative C uptake in 2008 suggests that the entire ecosystem experienced difficulty readjusting to more typical weather after experiencing exceptionally warm and dry conditions. Importantly, the return to a substantial cumulative C uptake occurred two summers after the extreme event, which suggest a high resilience of this tundra ecosystem. Overall, these results show a highly complex response of the C uptake and its sub-components to atypically dry conditions. The impact of multiple extreme events still awaits further investigation.

  10. Functional response models to estimate feeding rates of wading birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Collazo, J.A.; Gilliam, J.F.; Miranda-Castro, L.

    2010-01-01

    Forager (predator) abundance may mediate feeding rates in wading birds. Yet, when modeled, feeding rates are typically derived from the purely prey-dependent Holling Type II (HoII) functional response model. Estimates of feeding rates are necessary to evaluate wading bird foraging strategies and their role in food webs; thus, models that incorporate predator dependence warrant consideration. Here, data collected in a mangrove swamp in Puerto Rico in 1994 were reanalyzed, reporting feeding rates for mixed-species flocks after comparing fits of the HoII model, as used in the original work, to the Beddington-DeAngelis (BD) and Crowley-Martin (CM) predator-dependent models. Model CM received most support (AIC c wi = 0.44), but models BD and HoII were plausible alternatives (AIC c ??? 2). Results suggested that feeding rates were constrained by predator abundance. Reductions in rates were attributed to interference, which was consistent with the independently observed increase in aggression as flock size increased (P < 0.05). Substantial discrepancies between the CM and HoII models were possible depending on flock sizes used to model feeding rates. However, inferences derived from the HoII model, as used in the original work, were sound. While Holling's Type II and other purely prey-dependent models have fostered advances in wading bird foraging ecology, evaluating models that incorporate predator dependence could lead to a more adequate description of data and processes of interest. The mechanistic bases used to derive models used here lead to biologically interpretable results and advance understanding of wading bird foraging ecology.

  11. Inherent insulin sensitivity is a major determinant of multimeric adiponectin responsiveness to short-term weight loss in extreme obesity

    PubMed Central

    Mai, Stefania; Walker, Gillian E.; Brunani, Amelia; Guzzaloni, Gabriele; Grossi, Glenda; Oldani, Alberto; Aimaretti, Gianluca; Scacchi, Massimo; Marzullo, Paolo

    2014-01-01

    High molecular weight (HMW-A) adiponectin levels mirror alterations in glucose homeostasis better than medium (MMW-A) and low molecular weight (LMW-A) components. In 25 patients with wide-range extreme obesity (BMI 40-77 kg/m2), we aimed to explore if improvements of multimeric adiponectin following 4-wk weight loss reflect baseline OGTT-derived insulin sensitivity (ISIOGTT) and disposition index (DIOGTT). Compared to 40 lean controls, adiponectin oligomers were lower in extreme obesity (p < 0.001) and, within this group, HMW-A levels were higher in insulin-sensitive (p < 0.05) than -resistant patients. In obese patients, short-term weight loss did not change total adiponectin levels and insulin resistance, while the distribution pattern of adiponectin oligomers changed due to significant increment of HMW-A (p < 0.01) and reduction of MMW-A (p < 0.05). By multivariate analysis, final HMW-A levels were significantly related to baseline ISIOGTT and final body weight (adjusted R2 = 0.41). Our data suggest that HMW adiponectin may reflect baseline insulin sensitivity appropriately in the context of extreme obesity. Especially, we documented that HMW-A is promptly responsive to short-term weight loss prior to changes in insulin resistance, by a magnitude that is proportioned to whole body insulin sensitivity. This may suggest an insulin sensitivity-dependent control operated by HMW-A on metabolic dynamics of patients with extreme obesity. PMID:25056918

  12. An integrated approach for identifying homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall events and estimating IDF curves in Southern Ontario, Canada: Incorporating radar observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paixao, Edson; Mirza, M. Monirul Qader; Shephard, Mark W.; Auld, Heather; Klaassen, Joan; Smith, Graham

    2015-09-01

    Reliable extreme rainfall information is required for many applications including infrastructure design, management of water resources, and planning for weather-related emergencies in urban and rural areas. In this study, in situ TBRG sub-daily rainfall rate observations have been supplemented with weather radar information to better capture the spatial and temporal variability of heavy rainfall events regionally. Comparison of extreme rainfall events show that the absolute differences between the rain gauge and radar generally increase with increasing rainfall. Better agreement between the two observations is found when comparing the collocated radar and TBRG annual maximum values. The median difference is <18% for the annual maximum rainfall values ⩽50 mm. The median of difference of IDF estimates obtained through the Gumbel distribution for 10-year return period values computed from TBRG and radar are also found to be 4%. The overall results of this analysis demonstrates the potential value of incorporating remotely sensed radar with traditional point source TBRG network observations to provide additional insight on extreme rainfall events regionally, especially in terms of identifying homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall. The radar observations are particularly useful in areas where there is insufficient TBRG station density to statistically capture the extreme rainfall events.

  13. Extreme ecological response of a seabird community to unprecedented sea ice cover.

    PubMed

    Barbraud, Christophe; Delord, Karine; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-05-01

    Climate change has been predicted to reduce Antarctic sea ice but, instead, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has expanded over the past 30 years, albeit with contrasted regional changes. Here we report a recent extreme event in sea ice conditions in East Antarctica and investigate its consequences on a seabird community. In early 2014, the Dumont d'Urville Sea experienced the highest magnitude sea ice cover (76.8%) event on record (1982-2013: range 11.3-65.3%; mean±95% confidence interval: 27.7% (23.1-32.2%)). Catastrophic effects were detected in the breeding output of all sympatric seabird species, with a total failure for two species. These results provide a new view crucial to predictive models of species abundance and distribution as to how extreme sea ice events might impact an entire community of top predators in polar marine ecosystems in a context of expanding sea ice in eastern Antarctica.

  14. Whole-system responses of experimental plant communities to climate extremes imposed in different seasons.

    PubMed

    De Boeck, Hans J; Dreesen, Freja E; Janssens, Ivan A; Nijs, Ivan

    2011-02-01

    • Discrete climate events such as heat waves and droughts can have a disproportionate impact on ecosystems relative to the temporal scale over which they occur. Research oriented towards (extreme) events rather than (gradual) trends is therefore urgently needed. • Here, we imposed heat waves and droughts (50-yr return time) in a full factorial design on experimental plant communities in spring, summer or autumn. Droughts were created by removing the controlled water table (rainout shelters prevented precipitation), while heat waves were imposed with infrared heaters. • Measurements of whole-system CO(2) exchange, growth and biomass production revealed multiple interactions between treatments and the season in which they occurred. Heat waves had only small and transient effects, with infrared imaging showing little heat stress because of transpirational cooling. If heat waves were combined with drought, negative effects observed in single factor drought treatments were exacerbated through intensified soil drying, and heat stress in summer. Plant recovery from stress differed, affecting the biomass yield. • In conclusion, the timing of extreme events is critical regarding their impact, and synergisms between heat waves and drought aggravate the negative effects of these extremes on plant growth and functioning.

  15. Estimation of extreme offshore wave climate of Hong Kong using a third-generation discrete-spectral wave model

    SciTech Connect

    Ralston, J.; Ip, K.L.; Li, Y.S.; Li, C.W.

    1993-12-31

    Extreme wave conditions offshore of Hong Kong, which are predominantly caused by the passage of typhoons, were predicted by means of a third-generation discrete-spectral wave model. For each three-year period, the typhoon that affected Hong Kong most severely was selected, and its wind field was generated by a typhoon wind model. A total of 14 typhoons were chosen for simulation to cover a period of 42 years. An extreme value analysis was then performed for the computed maximum significant wave heights.

  16. Bayesian Estimation of Multi-Unidimensional Graded Response IRT Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuo, Tzu-Chun

    2015-01-01

    Item response theory (IRT) has gained an increasing popularity in large-scale educational and psychological testing situations because of its theoretical advantages over classical test theory. Unidimensional graded response models (GRMs) are useful when polytomous response items are designed to measure a unified latent trait. They are limited in…

  17. Evaluation of the PERSIANN-CDR daily rainfall estimates in capturing the behavior of extreme precipitation events over China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miao, C.; Ashouri, H.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.; Duan, Q.

    2014-12-01

    This study evaluates the performance of a newly developed daily precipitation climate data record, called PERSIANN-CDR, in capturing the behavior of daily extreme precipitation events in China during the period of 1983-2006. Different extreme precipitation indices, in three categories of percentile, absolute threshold, and maximum indices, are studied and compared with the same indices from the East Asia (EA) ground-based gridded daily precipitation dataset. The results show that PERSIANN-CDR depicts similar results, as the ground-based EA product in terms of capturing the spatial and temporal patterns of daily precipitation extremes, particularly in the East China monsoon region where the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events are very high. However, the agreement between the datasets in dry regions such as Tibetan Plateau in the West and the Taklamakan Desert in the Northwest is not strong. An important factor which may have influenced the results is that the ground-based stations from which EA gridded data was produced is very sparse. In the station-rich regions in the East, the performance of PERSIANN-CDR is significant. PERSIANN-CDR slightly underestimates the values of extreme heavy precipitation.

  18. Using Climate Variability to Predict Annual Precipitation and Estimate the Persistence of Climate Extremes for Major Urban Areas and Regions within the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giovannettone, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    Relationships between climate variability and precipitation in several urban areas throughout the United States are developed using various global climate indices. Precipitation data for over 1200 stations are obtained from the United States Historical Climatology Network maintained by the National Climate Data Center, NOAA. All data are averaged over an extended period (up to five years) and correlated to several climate indices averaged over a period of equal length using lag times also up to five years. The period length and lag time are optimized in order to produce the highest correlation. The index that best correlates with precipitation for each urban area analyzed in the current study is identified and used to create regions within the United States that are predominantly affected by a particular index; strong correlations (r2 values > 0.70) were found in all regions. The final result is a map of the United States that displays the spatial distribution of each region. These results, which include the specific relationships developed for each region and urban area, will not only allow a greater understanding of the major mechanisms that are responsible for rainfall variability throughout the United States, but will also result in improved predictability of precipitation over multiple time scales, including seasonal and annual. In addition, the ability to predict total rainfall for periods greater than one year will allow an estimate of the persistence of trends and extreme events, such as periods of drought or above-average rainfall, to be made in advance; how far these projections can be made in advance depends on the lag times used to create each site-specific and regional correlation. An example related to the California Drought is given.

  19. Modelling Tradeoffs Evolution in Multipurpose Water Systems Operation in Response to Extreme Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mason, E.; Gazzotti, P.; Amigoni, F.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

    2015-12-01

    Multipurpose water resource systems are usually operated on a tradeoff of the operating objectives, which - under steady state climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions - is supposed to ensure a fair and/or efficient balance among the conflicting interests. Extreme variability in the system's drivers might affect operators' risk aversion and force a change in the tradeoff. Properly accounting for these shifts is key to any rigorous retrospective assessment of operators' behavior and the associated system's performance. In this study, we explore how the selection of different optimal tradeoffs among the operating objectives is linked to the variations of the boundary conditions, such as, for example, drifting rainfall season or remarkable changes in crop and energy prices. We argue that tradeoff selection is driven by recent, extreme variations in system performance: underperforming on one of the operating objective target value should push the tradeoff toward the disadvantaged objective. To test this assumption, we developed a rational procedure to simulate the operators' tradeoff selection process. We map the selection onto a multi lateral negotiation process, where different multiple, virtual agents optimize different operating objectives. The agents periodically negotiate a compromise on the operating policy. The agent's rigidity in each negotiation round is determined by the recent system performances according to the specific objective it represents. The negotiation follows a set-based egocentric monotonic concession protocol: at each negotiation step an agent incrementally adds some options to the set of its acceptable compromises and (possibly) accepts lower and lower satisfying policies until an agreement is achieved. We apply this reiterated negotiation framework on the regulated Lake Como, Italy, simulating the lake dam operation and its recurrent updates over the last 50 years. The operation aims to balance shoreline flood prevention and irrigation

  20. Least Squares Estimation of Item Response Theory Linking Coefficients.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ogasawara, Haruhiko

    2001-01-01

    Discusses three types of least squares estimation (generalized, unweighted, and weighted). Results from a Monte Carlo simulation show that, in comparison with other least squares methods, the weighted least squared method generally reduced bias without increasing asymptotic standard errors. (SLD)

  1. Extreme ecological response of a seabird community to unprecedented sea ice cover

    PubMed Central

    Barbraud, Christophe; Delord, Karine; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-01-01

    Climate change has been predicted to reduce Antarctic sea ice but, instead, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has expanded over the past 30 years, albeit with contrasted regional changes. Here we report a recent extreme event in sea ice conditions in East Antarctica and investigate its consequences on a seabird community. In early 2014, the Dumont d'Urville Sea experienced the highest magnitude sea ice cover (76.8%) event on record (1982–2013: range 11.3–65.3%; mean±95% confidence interval: 27.7% (23.1–32.2%)). Catastrophic effects were detected in the breeding output of all sympatric seabird species, with a total failure for two species. These results provide a new view crucial to predictive models of species abundance and distribution as to how extreme sea ice events might impact an entire community of top predators in polar marine ecosystems in a context of expanding sea ice in eastern Antarctica. PMID:26064653

  2. Ecological Responses to Extreme Flooding Events: A Case Study with a Reintroduced Bird.

    PubMed

    Soriano-Redondo, Andrea; Bearhop, Stuart; Cleasby, Ian R; Lock, Leigh; Votier, Stephen C; Hilton, Geoff M

    2016-06-27

    In recent years numerous studies have documented the effects of a changing climate on the world's biodiversity. Although extreme weather events are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity and are challenging to organisms, there are few quantitative observations on the survival, behaviour and energy expenditure of animals during such events. We provide the first data on activity and energy expenditure of birds, Eurasian cranes Grus grus, during the winter of 2013-14, which saw the most severe floods in SW England in over 200 years. We fitted 23 cranes with telemetry devices and used remote sensing data to model flood dynamics during three consecutive winters (2012-2015). Our results show that during the acute phase of the 2013-14 floods, potential feeding areas decreased dramatically and cranes restricted their activity to a small partially unflooded area. They also increased energy expenditure (+15%) as they increased their foraging activity and reduced resting time. Survival did not decline in 2013-14, indicating that even though extreme climatic events strongly affected time-energy budgets, behavioural plasticity alleviated any potential impact on fitness. However under climate change scenarios such challenges may not be sustainable over longer periods and potentially could increase species vulnerability.

  3. Ecological Responses to Extreme Flooding Events: A Case Study with a Reintroduced Bird.

    PubMed

    Soriano-Redondo, Andrea; Bearhop, Stuart; Cleasby, Ian R; Lock, Leigh; Votier, Stephen C; Hilton, Geoff M

    2016-01-01

    In recent years numerous studies have documented the effects of a changing climate on the world's biodiversity. Although extreme weather events are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity and are challenging to organisms, there are few quantitative observations on the survival, behaviour and energy expenditure of animals during such events. We provide the first data on activity and energy expenditure of birds, Eurasian cranes Grus grus, during the winter of 2013-14, which saw the most severe floods in SW England in over 200 years. We fitted 23 cranes with telemetry devices and used remote sensing data to model flood dynamics during three consecutive winters (2012-2015). Our results show that during the acute phase of the 2013-14 floods, potential feeding areas decreased dramatically and cranes restricted their activity to a small partially unflooded area. They also increased energy expenditure (+15%) as they increased their foraging activity and reduced resting time. Survival did not decline in 2013-14, indicating that even though extreme climatic events strongly affected time-energy budgets, behavioural plasticity alleviated any potential impact on fitness. However under climate change scenarios such challenges may not be sustainable over longer periods and potentially could increase species vulnerability. PMID:27345214

  4. Ecological Responses to Extreme Flooding Events: A Case Study with a Reintroduced Bird

    PubMed Central

    Soriano-Redondo, Andrea; Bearhop, Stuart; Cleasby, Ian R.; Lock, Leigh; Votier, Stephen C.; Hilton, Geoff M.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years numerous studies have documented the effects of a changing climate on the world’s biodiversity. Although extreme weather events are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity and are challenging to organisms, there are few quantitative observations on the survival, behaviour and energy expenditure of animals during such events. We provide the first data on activity and energy expenditure of birds, Eurasian cranes Grus grus, during the winter of 2013–14, which saw the most severe floods in SW England in over 200 years. We fitted 23 cranes with telemetry devices and used remote sensing data to model flood dynamics during three consecutive winters (2012–2015). Our results show that during the acute phase of the 2013–14 floods, potential feeding areas decreased dramatically and cranes restricted their activity to a small partially unflooded area. They also increased energy expenditure (+15%) as they increased their foraging activity and reduced resting time. Survival did not decline in 2013–14, indicating that even though extreme climatic events strongly affected time-energy budgets, behavioural plasticity alleviated any potential impact on fitness. However under climate change scenarios such challenges may not be sustainable over longer periods and potentially could increase species vulnerability. PMID:27345214

  5. Kinematic constituents of the extreme head turn of Strix aluco estimated by means of CT-scanning.

    PubMed

    Grytsyshina, E E; Kuznetsov, A N; Panyutina, A A

    2016-01-01

    To analyze extreme sideways turn of the head in owls, a total fresh specimen of Strix aluco was frozen in respective posture and CT-scanned. The maximum turn to one side was found to be 360°, provided that the head is drawn into the shoulders. 160° of this full turn are ensured by the neck axial rotation (this includes ~90° twist of the head relative to epistropheus and, posterior to it, less than 15° per every cervical joint), and the rest 200° are ensured by combination of dorsal and lateral flexion. The 15° limit is overcome in five joints in respect of dorsiflexion, and in six joints in respect of lateral flexion. So large a degree of lateral mobility is unusual among birds, and is appreciated as a crucial adaptation to extreme head turning. PMID:27021365

  6. Tolerance and responsive gene expression of Sogatella furcifera under extreme temperature stresses are altered by its vectored plant virus

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Donglin; Zhong, Ting; Feng, Wendi; Zhou, Guohui

    2016-01-01

    Southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus (SRBSDV), a newly emerged fijivirus causing great loss to rice production in eastern and southeastern Asian countries in recent years, is efficiently transmitted by a rice pest, white-backed planthopper (WBPH, Sogatella furcifera) in a persistent, circulative propagative manner and can be considered as an insect virus. In this study, SRBSDV infection in WBPH was found to increase the vector’s death rate under extreme cold stress but improve its survival rate under extreme heat stress. Digital gene expression profiling based on RNA-Seq revealed different gene regulation patterns in WBPH under viral and/or temperature stress. Under cold stress, the virus infection upregulated 1540 genes and downregulated 131 genes in the insect, most of which were related to membrane properties and biological processes of actin and cytoskeleton; whereas under heat stress, it upregulated 363 genes and downregulated 548 genes, most of which were associated to metabolism and intracellular organelles. Several types of stress-responsive genes involving intestinal mucin, cuticle protein, ubiquitin protease, immune response, RNA interference and heat shock response, were largely upregulated under cold stress, but largely downregulated under heat stress, by SRBSDV infection. Our results suggest two distinct mechanisms of virus-altered vector insect tolerance to temperature stress. PMID:27531640

  7. Tolerance and responsive gene expression of Sogatella furcifera under extreme temperature stresses are altered by its vectored plant virus.

    PubMed

    Xu, Donglin; Zhong, Ting; Feng, Wendi; Zhou, Guohui

    2016-01-01

    Southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus (SRBSDV), a newly emerged fijivirus causing great loss to rice production in eastern and southeastern Asian countries in recent years, is efficiently transmitted by a rice pest, white-backed planthopper (WBPH, Sogatella furcifera) in a persistent, circulative propagative manner and can be considered as an insect virus. In this study, SRBSDV infection in WBPH was found to increase the vector's death rate under extreme cold stress but improve its survival rate under extreme heat stress. Digital gene expression profiling based on RNA-Seq revealed different gene regulation patterns in WBPH under viral and/or temperature stress. Under cold stress, the virus infection upregulated 1540 genes and downregulated 131 genes in the insect, most of which were related to membrane properties and biological processes of actin and cytoskeleton; whereas under heat stress, it upregulated 363 genes and downregulated 548 genes, most of which were associated to metabolism and intracellular organelles. Several types of stress-responsive genes involving intestinal mucin, cuticle protein, ubiquitin protease, immune response, RNA interference and heat shock response, were largely upregulated under cold stress, but largely downregulated under heat stress, by SRBSDV infection. Our results suggest two distinct mechanisms of virus-altered vector insect tolerance to temperature stress. PMID:27531640

  8. Estimating the Nominal Response Model under Nonnormal Conditions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Preston, Kathleen Suzanne Johnson; Reise, Steven Paul

    2014-01-01

    The nominal response model (NRM), a much understudied polytomous item response theory (IRT) model, provides researchers the unique opportunity to evaluate within-item category distinctions. Polytomous IRT models, such as the NRM, are frequently applied to psychological assessments representing constructs that are unlikely to be normally…

  9. Osmoregulation in an avian nectarivore, the whitebellied sunbird Nectarinia talatala: response to extremes of diet concentration.

    PubMed

    Fleming, P A; Nicolson, S W

    2003-06-01

    Water intake of nectarivores is intrinsically linked to nectar concentration. Osmoregulation in whitebellied sunbirds Nectarinia talatala (body mass 9.3+/-0.1 g, mean +/- S.D., N=7), was examined by feeding them sucrose solutions, equivalent to extreme diet concentrations (0.07-2.5 mol l(-1) sucrose; 2-65% w/w), with and without supplementary drinking water. Total water gain was 33-515% of body mass daily. Cloacal fluid (CF) volume increased with diet dilution from 0.4% to 309% of body mass while increases in evaporative water loss (obtained by difference) were also recorded. Osmolality of CF demonstrated the largest scope yet recorded for a bird and was significantly correlated with water flux: mean values were 6-460 mosm kg(-1) H(2)O (minimum 3, maximum 1900 mosm kg(-1)). When supplementary water was provided, its consumption by birds fed concentrated diets (2.5 mol l(-1) sucrose) led to a dramatic reduction in CF osmolality, from 461+/-253 to 80+/-119 mosm kg(-1) fluid. Sunbirds maintained energy balance on sucrose diets varying tenfold in concentration, from 0.25 to 2.5 mol l(-1); however, on extremely dilute diets (0.07 and 0.1 mol l(-1) sucrose, lower than natural nectar concentrations) their inability to maintain energy balance was probably due to excess preformed water. Total osmotic excretion and concentrations of Na(+) and K(+) increased with high water fluxes, and are a possible physiological constraint for nectarivorous birds on artificial dilute diets devoid of electrolytes. Even low electrolyte levels in nectars may be adequate to replace these losses, but other physiological limitations to the intake of dilute nectars are increased energetic costs of solute recovery, increased heat loss and interference with digestive processes. Sunbirds therefore deal with sugar solutions spanning the range of nectar concentrations by shutting down water excretion on concentrated diets, or, on dilute diets, by producing extremely dilute CF with some of the lowest

  10. Characterising the Geomorphic Response of a Tropical Mega-River to an Extreme, Cyclone Induced, Flood Event.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hackney, C. R.; Leyland, J.; Darby, S. E.; Parsons, D. R.; Aalto, R. E.; Nicholas, A. P.; Best, J.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme events have the ability to induce extensive geomorphic change in fluvial systems as a result of elevated discharge levels, increased sediment transport capacity and associated changes in sheer stresses along channel boundaries. Understanding how rapid rises in water levels change flow structures and channel boundary roughness is key to understanding the relative significance of large events in terms of driving local and system wide geomorphic change. However, capturing the fluvial process dynamics in operation during such events is technically and logistically difficult, especially in the world's largest rivers. During September 2013, on the peak of the monsoon, a series of tropical cyclones induced a large flood event within the Mekong basin. At the peak of the flood wave, discharge measured ~60000 m3/s; the 11th largest flood on record. Pre and post event high resolution topographic surveys of parts of the bed and bank were captured using a combination of contiguous multibeam echo sounding (MBES) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) during the event. Simultaneously detailed measurements of cross sectional and near bank flow structure were acquired using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (aDcp). Together, these unique datasets can be used to characterise and assess the geomorphic impact of a cyclone induced extreme flood event on the Mekong. We show how flow structures in the near bank region evolve with stage during the extreme event and how the associated geomorphic response is modulated by the distinctive process dynamics of a mega-river.

  11. Development of an artificial neural network based multi-model ensemble to estimate the northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India: an application of extreme learning machine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acharya, Nachiketa; Shrivastava, Nitin Anand; Panigrahi, B. K.; Mohanty, U. C.

    2014-09-01

    The south peninsular part of India gets maximum amount of rainfall during the northeast monsoon (NEM) season [October to November (OND)] which is the primary source of water for the agricultural activities in this region. A nonlinear method viz., Extreme learning machine (ELM) has been employed on general circulation model (GCM) products to make the multi-model ensemble (MME) based estimation of NEM rainfall (NEMR). The ELM is basically is an improved learning algorithm for the single feed-forward neural network (SLFN) architecture. The 27 year (1982-2008) lead-1 (using initial conditions of September for forecasting the mean rainfall of OND) hindcast runs (1982-2008) from seven GCM has been used to make MME. The improvement of the proposed method with respect to other regular MME (simple arithmetic mean of GCMs (EM) and singular value decomposition based multiple linear regressions based MME) has been assessed through several skill metrics like Spread distribution, multiplicative bias, prediction errors, the yield of prediction, Pearson's and Kendal's correlation coefficient and Wilmort's index of agreement. The efficiency of ELM estimated rainfall is established by all the stated skill scores. The performance of ELM in extreme NEMR years, out of which 4 years are characterized by deficit rainfall and 5 years are identified as excess, is also examined. It is found that the ELM could expeditiously capture these extremes reasonably well as compared to the other MME approaches.

  12. Use of historical information in extreme surge frequency estimation: case of the marine flooding on the La Rochelle site in France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamdi, Y.; Bardet, L.; Duluc, C.-M.; Rebour, V.

    2014-09-01

    Nuclear power plants located in the French Atlantic coast are designed to be protected against extreme environmental conditions. The French authorities remain cautious by adopting a strict policy of nuclear plants flood prevention. Although coastal nuclear facilities in France are designed to very low probabilities of failure (e.g. 1000 year surge), exceptional surges (outliers induced by exceptional climatic events) had shown that the extreme sea levels estimated with the current statistical approaches could be underestimated. The estimation of extreme surges then requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a more solid theoretical motivation. This paper deals with extreme surge frequency estimation using historical information (HI) about events occurred before the systematic record period. It also contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. The frequency models presented in the present paper have been quite successful in the field of hydrometeorology and river flooding but they have not been applied to sea levels data sets to prevent marine flooding. In this work, we suggest two methods of incorporating the HI: the Peaks-Over-Threshold method with HI (POTH) and the Block Maxima method with HI (BMH). Two kinds of historical data can be used in the POTH method: classical Historical Maxima (HMax) data, and Over a Threshold Supplementary (OTS) data. In both cases, the data are structured in historical periods and can be used only as complement to the main systematic data. On the other hand, in the BMH method, the basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of HI is that at least one threshold of perception exists for the whole period (historical and systematic) and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, only information about surges above this threshold have been recorded or archived. The two frequency models were applied to a case study from France, at the La Rochelle site where

  13. Use of historical information in extreme-surge frequency estimation: the case of marine flooding on the La Rochelle site in France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamdi, Y.; Bardet, L.; Duluc, C.-M.; Rebour, V.

    2015-07-01

    Nuclear power plants located in the French Atlantic coast are designed to be protected against extreme environmental conditions. The French authorities remain cautious by adopting a strict policy of nuclear-plants flood prevention. Although coastal nuclear facilities in France are designed to very low probabilities of failure (e.g., 1000-year surge), exceptional surges (outliers induced by exceptional climatic events) have shown that the extreme sea levels estimated with the current statistical approaches could be underestimated. The estimation of extreme surges then requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a more solid theoretical motivation. This paper deals with extreme-surge frequency estimation using historical information (HI) about events occurred before the systematic record period. It also contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. The frequency models presented in the present paper have been quite successful in the field of hydrometeorology and river flooding but they have not been applied to sea level data sets to prevent marine flooding. In this work, we suggest two methods of incorporating the HI: the peaks-over-threshold method with HI (POTH) and the block maxima method with HI (BMH). Two kinds of historical data can be used in the POTH method: classical historical maxima (HMax) data, and over-a-threshold supplementary (OTS) data. In both cases, the data are structured in historical periods and can be used only as complement to the main systematic data. On the other hand, in the BMH method, the basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of HI is that at least one threshold of perception exists for the whole period (historical and systematic) and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, only information about surges above this threshold have been recorded or archived. The two frequency models were applied to a case study from France, at the La Rochelle site where

  14. Extreme and Local 3rd Harmonic Response of Niobium (Nb) Superconductor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oripov, Bakhrom; Tai, Tamin; Anlage, Steven

    Superconducting Radio Frequency (SRF) cavities are being widely used in new generation particle accelerators. These SRF cavities are based on bulk Nb. Based on the needs of the SRF community to identify defects on Nb surfaces, a novel near-field magnetic microwave microscope was successfully built using a magnetic writer from a conventional magnetic recording hard-disk drive1. This magnetic writer can create an RF magnetic field, localized and strong enough to drive Nb into the vortex state. This probe enables us to locate defects through scanning and mapping of the local electrodynamic response in the multi-GHz frequency range. Recent measurements have shown that 3rd harmonic nonlinear response is far more sensitive to variations in input power and temperature then linear response, thus we mainly study the 3rd harmonic response. Moreover, the superconductor is usually the only source for nonlinear response in our setup, thus there is less chance of having noise or background signal. Understanding the mechanism responsible for this non-linear response is important for improving the performance of SRF cavities. Besides Nb we also study various other superconductors such as MgB2 and the cuprate Bi-Sr-Ca-Cu-O (BSCCO) for potential applications in SRF cavities. This work is funded by US Department of Energy through Grant # DE-SC0012036T and CNAM.

  15. Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

    2016-11-01

    Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems. PMID:27341115

  16. Response of Soil Respiration to Repeated Extreme Events in a Temperate Beech Forest in Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leitner, S.; Kobler, J.; Holtermann, C.; Zechmeister-Boltenstern, S.; Saronjic, N.; Zimmermann, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change research predicts an increase in weather extremes like severe droughts and heavy rainfalls in central Europe. Since soil moisture is one of the most important drivers of soil respiration, a change in precipitation regime is likely to influence ecosystem C cycling. During drying of soils, soil microbial activity decreases and dead microbial cells, osmolytes, and semi-decomposed organic matter accumulate. When dry soils are rewetted, this easily-decomposable C leads to a pulse in soil respiration, a phenomenon known as "Birch-effect". In terms of annual soil CO2emissions, it is not clear whether these post-wetting respiration pulses outweigh or even overcompensate preceding drought-induced reductions in soil respiration. To investigate the impact of repeated drought and heavy rainfall events, a two-year precipitation manipulation experiment was conducted in an Austrian beech forest. Experimental plots were covered with transparent roofs to exclude rainfall, and an irrigation system was used to simulate heavy rainfall events. Control plots received natural precipitation. Soil respiration was monitored 3-hourly with an automatic static chamber system connected to an infrared CO2 analyzer. Soil temperature (Tsoil) and volumetric water content (VWC) were recorded with a datalogger. Various statistical models were tested to describe the relationship between soil respiration, Tsoiland VWC. Our results showed that repeated extreme events strongly reduced variation in soil respiration. Droughts significantly reduced soil respiration, and reductions depended on the length of the drought period. Post-wetting respiration pulses did not outweigh drought-induced reductions. Temperature sensitivity of soil respiration was best described with a Lloyd & Taylor model. Furthermore, in stressed plots VWC became limiting for soil respiration. Overall, our data corroborate the importance of the precipitation regime for soil respiration.

  17. Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

    2016-11-01

    Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems.

  18. Testing and Modeling the Responses of Hybrid III Crash-Dummy Lower Extremity under High-speed Vertical Loading.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Feng; Dong, Liqiang; Jin, Xin; Jiang, Binhui; Kalra, Anil; Shen, Ming; Yang, King H

    2015-11-01

    Anthropometric test devices (ATDs), such as the Hybrid III crash-test dummy, have been used to simulate lowerextremity responses to military personnel subjected to loading conditions from anti-vehicular (AV) landmine blasts. Numerical simulations [e.g., finite element (FE) analysis] of such high-speed vertical loading on ATD parts require accurate material parameters that are dependent on strain rate. This study presents a combined experimental and computational study to calibrate the rate-dependent properties of three materials on the lower extremities of the Hybrid III dummy. The three materials are heelpad foam, foot skin, and lower-leg flesh, and each has properties that can affect simulation results of forces and moments transferred to the lower extremities. Specifically, the behavior of the heel-pad foam was directly calibrated through standard compression tests, and the properties of the foot skin and lower-leg flesh were calibrated based on an optimization procedure in which the material parameters were adjusted for best fit between the calculated force-deflection responses and least squares of the experimental data. The material models updated with strain-rate effects were then integrated into an ATD full-body FE model (FEM), which was used to simulate vertical impulsive loading responses at different speeds. Results of validations using this model demonstrated basic replication of experimentally obtained response patterns of the tibia. The bending moments matched those calculated from the experimental data 25-40% more accurately than those obtained from the original model, and axial forces were 60-90% more accurate. However, neither the original nor the modified models well captured whole-body response patterns, and further improvements are required. As a generalized approach, the optimization method presented in this paper can be applied to characterize material constants for a wide range of materials. PMID:26660755

  19. Estimation of springing response for 550 000 DWT ore carrier

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adenya, Christiaan Adika; Ren, Huilong; Li, Hui; Wang, Di

    2016-07-01

    The desire to benefit from economy of scale is one of the major driving forces behind the continuous growth in ship sizes. However, models of new large ships need to be thoroughly investigated to determine the carrier's response in waves. In this work, experimental and numerical assessments of the motion and load response of a 550,000 DWT ore carrier are performed using prototype ships with softer stiffness, and towing tank tests are conducted using a segmented model with two schemes of softer stiffness. Numerical analyses are performed employing both rigid body and linear hydroelasticity theories using an in-house program and a comparison is then made between experimental and numerical results to establish the influence of stiffness on the ore carrier's springing response. Results show that softer stiffness models can be used when studying the springing response of ships in waves.

  20. Estimation of springing response for 550 000 DWT ore carrier

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adenya, Christiaan Adika; Ren, Huilong; Li, Hui; Wang, Di

    2016-09-01

    The desire to benefit from economy of scale is one of the major driving forces behind the continuous growth in ship sizes. However, models of new large ships need to be thoroughly investigated to determine the carrier's response in waves. In this work, experimental and numerical assessments of the motion and load response of a 550,000 DWT ore carrier are performed using prototype ships with softer stiffness, and towing tank tests are conducted using a segmented model with two schemes of softer stiffness. Numerical analyses are performed employing both rigid body and linear hydroelasticity theories using an in-house program and a comparison is then made between experimental and numerical results to establish the influence of stiffness on the ore carrier's springing response. Results show that softer stiffness models can be used when studying the springing response of ships in waves.

  1. ESTIMATION OF AQUATIC SPECIES SENSITIVITY AND POPULATION-LEVEL RESPONSES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Determining species sensitivity and population-level responses of aquatic organisms to contaminants are critical components of criteria development and ecological risk assessment. To address data gaps in species sensitivity, the U.S. EPA developed the Interspecies Correlation Est...

  2. NEUROTOXIC EFFECTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL AGENTS: DATA GAPS THAT CHALLENGE DOSE-RESPONSE ESTIMATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Neurotoxic effects of environmental agents: Data gaps that challenge dose-response estimation
    S Gutter*, P Mendola+, SG Selevan**, D Rice** (*UNC Chapel Hill; +US EPA, NHEERL; **US EPA, NCEA)

    Dose-response estimation is a critical feature of risk assessment. It can be...

  3. A Comparison Study of the Unidimensional IRT Estimation of Compensatory and Noncompensatory Multidimensional Item Response Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ackerman, Terry A.

    Concern has been expressed over the item response theory (IRT) assumption that a person's ability can be estimated in a unidimensional latent space. To examine whether or not the response to an item requires only a single latent ability, unidimensional ability estimates were compared for data generated from the multidimensional item response…

  4. Two Approaches to Estimation of Classification Accuracy Rate under Item Response Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lathrop, Quinn N.; Cheng, Ying

    2013-01-01

    Within the framework of item response theory (IRT), there are two recent lines of work on the estimation of classification accuracy (CA) rate. One approach estimates CA when decisions are made based on total sum scores, the other based on latent trait estimates. The former is referred to as the Lee approach, and the latter, the Rudner approach,…

  5. The Response of Different Audiences to Place-based Communication about the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Weather Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halperin, A.; Walton, P.

    2015-12-01

    As the science of extreme event attribution grows, there is an increasing need to understand how the public responds to this type of climate change communication. Extreme event attribution has the unprecedented potential to locate the effects of climate change in the here and now, but there is little information about how different facets of the public might respond to these local framings of climate change. Drawing on theories of place attachment and psychological distance, this paper explores how people with different beliefs and values shift their willingness to mitigate and adapt to climate change in response to local or global communication of climate change impacts. Results will be presented from a recent survey of over 600 Californians who were each presented with one of three experimental conditions: 1) a local framing of the role of climate change in the California drought 2) a global framing of climate change and droughts worldwide, or 3) a control condition of no text. Participants were categorized into groups based on their prior beliefs about climate change according to the Six Americas classification scheme (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The results from the survey in conjunction with qualitative results from follow-up interviews shed insight into the importance of place in communicating climate change for people in each of the Six Americas. Additional results examine the role of gender and political affiliation in mediating responses to climate change communication. Despite research that advocates unequivocally for local framing of climate change, this study offers a more nuanced perspective of under which circumstances extreme event attribution might be an effective tool for changing behaviors. These results could be useful for scientists who wish to gain a better understanding of how their event attribution research is perceived or for educators who want to target their message to audiences where it could have the most impact.

  6. Models Of Lower Extremity Damage In Mice: Time Course of Organ Damage & Immune Response

    PubMed Central

    Menzel, Christoph L; Pfeifer, Roman; Darwiche, Sophie S; Kobbe, Philipp; Gill, Roop; Shapiro, Richard A; Loughran, Patricia; Vodovotz, Yoram; Scott, Melanie J; Zenati, Mazen S; Billiar, Timothy R; Pape, Hans-Christoph

    2011-01-01

    Background Posttraumatic inflammatory changes have been identified as major causes of altered organ function and failure. Both hemorrhage and soft tissue damage induce these inflammatory changes. Exposure to heterologous bone in animal models has recently been shown to mimic this inflammatory response in a stable and reproducible fashion. This follow-up study tests the hypothesis that inflammatory responses are comparable between a novel trauma model (“pseudofracture”, PFx) and a bilateral femur fracture (BFF) model. Materials and Methods In C57BL/6 mice, markers for remote organ dysfunction and inflammatory responses were compared in 4 groups (control/sham/BFF/PFx) at the time points 2, 4, and 6 hours. Results Hepatocellular damage in BFF and PFx was highly comparable in extent and evolution, as shown by similar levels of NFκB activation and plasma ALT. Pulmonary inflammatory responses were also comparably elevated in both trauma models as early as 2h after trauma as measured by myeloperoxidase activity (MPO). Muscle damage was provoked in both BFF and PFx mice over the time course, although BFF induced significantly higher AST and CK levels. IL-6 levels were also similar with early and sustained increases over time in both trauma models. Conclusions Both BFF and PFx create similar reproducible inflammatory and remote organ responses. PFx will be a useful model to study longer term inflammatory effects that cannot be studied using BFF. PMID:21276982

  7. The Turbulent Ionized Interstellar Medium Responsible for Extreme Scattering Events in Directions of Pulsars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamidouche, M. A.; Lestrade, J.-F.; Cognard, I.

    2002-06-01

    Simulation of ESE's in the turbulent ionised ISM Hamidouche, A.M, Lestrade, J-F and Cognard, I Extreme Scattering Events (ESE's) in directions of extragalactic sources and pulsars are rare events that have been interpreted as discrete clouds of plasma crossing the line of sights and acting as lenses. The observations lead to a model implying that these clouds are short lived and that their space density is as high as ~106 pc-3 clouds in the Galaxy. These implications are usually difficult to reconcile with our current view of the interstellar medium. We have explored an alternative model. It is well known that the ionised interstellar medium is turbulent and that its inhomogeneities of the electronic density closely match the Kolmogorov 3D spatial spectrum. We have simulated scintillation produced by such a spectrum in the thin screen approximation. The simulation of the corresponding 2D phase screen for 16 years of observations of pulsars at Nancay is modelled by 17 Gigapixels. This has been a challenge numerically. Scintillation (flux density variation) calculation for a point source (pulsar) is carried out with the kirchhoff-Fresnel integral in the framework of physical optics. We show that our model does exhibit ESE's over 16 years at a rate (number of ESE's per year) that is consistent with the observed rate at Nancay. Consequently, we propose that turbulence in the ionised ISM be the natural source for ESE's in directions of pulsars.

  8. Response of Bacillus subtilis spores to dehydration and UV irradiation at extremely low temperatures.

    PubMed

    Dose, K; Klein, A

    1996-02-01

    Spores of Bacillus subtilis have been exposed to the conditions of extreme dehydration (argon/silica gel; simulated space vacuum) for up to 12 weeks at 298 K and 80 K in the dark. The inactivation has been correlated with the production of DNA-double strand-breaks. The temperature-dependence of the rate constants for inactivation or production of DNA-double strand-breaks is surprisingly low. Controls kept in the frozen state at 250 K for the same period of time showed no sign of deterioration. In another series of experiments the spores have been UV irradiated (253.7 nm) at 298 K, 200 K and 80 K after exposure to dehydrating conditions for 3 days. Fluence-effect relationships for inactivation, production of DNA-double strand-breaks and DNA-protein cross-links are presented. The corresponding F37-values for inactivation and production of DNA lesions are significantly increased only at 80 K (factor of 4 to 5). The data indicate that the low temperatures that prevail in the outer parts of the Solar System or at the nightside of Mars or the Moon are not sufficiently low to crucially inhibit inactivation by dehydration. Our data place further constraints on the panspermia hypothesis.

  9. Estimation of Response Functions Based on Variational Bayes Algorithm in Dynamic Images Sequences

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    We proposed a nonparametric Bayesian model based on variational Bayes algorithm to estimate the response functions in dynamic medical imaging. In dynamic renal scintigraphy, the impulse response or retention functions are rather complicated and finding a suitable parametric form is problematic. In this paper, we estimated the response functions using nonparametric Bayesian priors. These priors were designed to favor desirable properties of the functions, such as sparsity or smoothness. These assumptions were used within hierarchical priors of the variational Bayes algorithm. We performed our algorithm on the real online dataset of dynamic renal scintigraphy. The results demonstrated that this algorithm improved the estimation of response functions with nonparametric priors. PMID:27631007

  10. Estimation of Response Functions Based on Variational Bayes Algorithm in Dynamic Images Sequences

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    We proposed a nonparametric Bayesian model based on variational Bayes algorithm to estimate the response functions in dynamic medical imaging. In dynamic renal scintigraphy, the impulse response or retention functions are rather complicated and finding a suitable parametric form is problematic. In this paper, we estimated the response functions using nonparametric Bayesian priors. These priors were designed to favor desirable properties of the functions, such as sparsity or smoothness. These assumptions were used within hierarchical priors of the variational Bayes algorithm. We performed our algorithm on the real online dataset of dynamic renal scintigraphy. The results demonstrated that this algorithm improved the estimation of response functions with nonparametric priors.

  11. A new mean estimator using auxiliary variables for randomized response models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozgul, Nilgun; Cingi, Hulya

    2013-10-01

    Randomized response models are commonly used in surveys dealing with sensitive questions such as abortion, alcoholism, sexual orientation, drug taking, annual income, tax evasion to ensure interviewee anonymity and reduce nonrespondents rates and biased responses. Starting from the pioneering work of Warner [7], many versions of RRM have been developed that can deal with quantitative responses. In this study, new mean estimator is suggested for RRM including quantitative responses. The mean square error is derived and a simulation study is performed to show the efficiency of the proposed estimator to other existing estimators in RRM.

  12. Estimating Frequency-Of-Occurrence Of Extreme Water Levels In Kotzebue Sound And Norton Sound From A Storm Surge Model For 51 Years Between 1954 And 2004

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, S.; Chapman, R. S.; Mark, D. J.

    2009-12-01

    Extreme water levels have been affecting the coastal communities along the Kotzebue Sound and the Norton Sound in western Alaska. A 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model, ADCIRC, was applied to study extra-tropical event-induced coastal surges for the western Alaska including Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea. The model was forced with reanalyzed regional meteorological fields, including surface pressure, surface wind, and ice cover with resolution of 0.25 degrees in space and 3 hours in time. The relationships between tide gage data and extracted local meteorological data at Nome in Norton Sound for about 10 years including disruptions between 1992 and 2004 and Red Dog Dock in Kotzebue Sound for about 3 years between 2001 and 2004 provided guidelines for event selection. The event selection criteria were applied to the 20 year continuous meteorological data between 1985 and 2004. The similar meteorological data but only available for the identified storm wave conditions for 31 years between 1954 and 1984 were also used for model simulation but later sorted out to retain only coastal surge events. Subsequent to model calibration and validation, a total 52 storm events were simulated during the 51 year period between 1954 and 2004. Concurrent events at both Kotzebue Sound and Norton Sound with slight phase shifts were observed throughout the simulation. Frequency-of-occurrences of extreme water levels were estimated using extreme value statistics, empirical simulation techniques, and rank-and-fit method, respectively. The estimates show spatial variation mostly influenced by shoreline geometry—peaks at the foci of embayment in both Kotzebue Sound and Norton Sound. The return period estimates were consistent among different methods.

  13. Responses of soil bacterial and fungal communities to extreme desiccation and rewetting

    PubMed Central

    Barnard, Romain L; Osborne, Catherine A; Firestone, Mary K

    2013-01-01

    The microbial response to summer desiccation reflects adaptation strategies, setting the stage for a large rainfall-induced soil CO2 pulse upon rewetting, an important component of the ecosystem carbon budget. In three California annual grasslands, the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (RNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities were tracked over a summer season and in response to controlled rewetting of intact soil cores. Phylogenetic marker genes for bacterial (16S) and fungal (28S) RNA and DNA were sequenced, and the abundances of these genes and transcripts were measured. Although bacterial community composition differed among sites, all sites shared a similar response pattern of the present and potentially active bacterial community to dry-down and wet-up. In contrast, the fungal community was not detectably different among sites, and was largely unaffected by dry-down, showing marked resistance to dessication. The potentially active bacterial community changed significantly as summer dry-down progressed, then returned to pre-dry-down composition within several hours of rewetting, displaying spectacular resilience. Upon rewetting, transcript copies of bacterial rpoB genes increased consistently, reflecting rapid activity resumption. Acidobacteria and Actinobacteria were the most abundant phyla present and potentially active, and showed the largest changes in relative abundance. The relative increase (Actinobacteria) and decrease (Acidobacteria) with dry-down, and the reverse responses to rewetting reflected a differential response, which was conserved at the phylum level and consistent across sites. These contrasting desiccation-related bacterial life-strategies suggest that predicted changes in precipitation patterns may affect soil nutrient and carbon cycling by differentially impacting activity patterns of microbial communities. PMID:23823489

  14. Estimation of finite population parameters with auxiliary information and response error.

    PubMed

    González, L M; Singer, J M; Stanek, E J

    2014-10-01

    We use a finite population mixed model that accommodates response error in the survey variable of interest and auxiliary information to obtain optimal estimators of population parameters from data collected via simple random sampling. We illustrate the method with the estimation of a regression coefficient and conduct a simulation study to compare the performance of the empirical version of the proposed estimator (obtained by replacing variance components with estimates) with that of the least squares estimator usually employed in such settings. The results suggest that when the auxiliary variable distribution is skewed, the proposed estimator has a smaller mean squared error.

  15. How extreme are extremes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

    2016-04-01

    High temperatures have an impact on the energy balance of any living organism and on the operational capabilities of critical infrastructures. Heat-wave indicators have been mainly developed with the aim of capturing the potential impacts on specific sectors (agriculture, health, wildfires, transport, power generation and distribution). However, the ability to capture the occurrence of extreme temperature events is an essential property of a multi-hazard extreme climate indicator. Aim of this study is to develop a standardized heat-wave indicator, that can be combined with other indices in order to describe multiple hazards in a single indicator. The proposed approach can be used in order to have a quantified indicator of the strenght of a certain extreme. As a matter of fact, extremes are usually distributed in exponential or exponential-exponential functions and it is difficult to quickly asses how strong was an extreme events considering only its magnitude. The proposed approach simplify the quantitative and qualitative communication of extreme magnitude

  16. An approach to quantifying 3D responses of cells to extreme strain

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yuhui; Huang, Guoyou; Li, Moxiao; Wang, Lin; Elson, Elliot L.; Jian Lu, Tian; Genin, Guy M.; Xu, Feng

    2016-01-01

    The tissues of hollow organs can routinely stretch up to 2.5 times their length. Although significant pathology can arise if relatively large stretches are sustained, the responses of cells are not known at these levels of sustained strain. A key challenge is presenting cells with a realistic and well-defined three-dimensional (3D) culture environment that can sustain such strains. Here, we describe an in vitro system called microscale, magnetically-actuated synthetic tissues (micro-MASTs) to quantify these responses for cells within a 3D hydrogel matrix. Cellular strain-threshold and saturation behaviors were observed in hydrogel matrix, including strain-dependent proliferation, spreading, polarization, and differentiation, and matrix adhesion retained at strains sufficient for apoptosis. More broadly, the system shows promise for defining and controlling the effects of mechanical environment upon a broad range of cells. PMID:26887698

  17. A modeling approach to assess the hydrological response of small mediterranean catchments to the variability of soil characteristics in a context of extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manus, C.; Anquetin, S.; Braud, I.; Vandervaere, J.-P.; Creutin, J.-D.; Viallet, P.; Gaume, E.

    2009-02-01

    This paper presents a modeling study aiming at quantifying the possible impact of soil characteristics on the hydrological response of small ungauged catchments in a context of extreme events. The study focuses on the September 2002 event in the Gard region (South-Eastern France), which led to catastrophic flash-floods. The proposed modeling approach is able to take into account rainfall variability and soil profiles variability. Its spatial discretization is determined using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and a soil map. The model computes infiltration, ponding and vertical soil water distribution, as well as river discharge. In order to be applicable to ungauged catchments, the model is set up without any calibration and the soil parameter specification is based on an existing soil database. The model verification is based on a regional evaluation using 17 estimated discharges obtained from an extensive post-flood investigation. Thus, this approach provides a spatial view of the hydrological response across a large range of scales. To perform the simulations, radar rainfall estimations are used at a 1 km2 and 5 min resolution. To specify the soil hydraulic properties, two types of pedotransfer function (PTF) are compared. It is shown that the PTF including information about soil structure reflects better the spatial variability that can be encountered in the field. The study is focused on four small ungauged catchments of less than 10 km2, which experienced casualties. Simulated specific peak discharges are found to be in agreement with estimations from a post-event in situ investigation. Examining the dynamics of simulated infiltration and saturation degrees, two different behaviors are shown which correspond to different runoff production mechanisms that could be encountered within catchments of less than 10 km2. They produce simulated runoff coefficients that evolve in time and highlight the variability of the infiltration capacity of the various soil types

  18. Different Oxidative Stress Response in Keratinocytes and Fibroblasts of Reconstructed Skin Exposed to Non Extreme Daily-Ultraviolet Radiation

    PubMed Central

    Marionnet, Claire; Pierrard, Cécile; Lejeune, François; Sok, Juliette; Thomas, Marie; Bernerd, Françoise

    2010-01-01

    Experiments characterizing the biological effects of sun exposure have usually involved solar simulators. However, they addressed the worst case scenario i.e. zenithal sun, rarely found in common outdoor activities. A non-extreme ultraviolet radiation (UV) spectrum referred as “daily UV radiation” (DUVR) with a higher UVA (320–400 nm) to UVB (280–320 nm) irradiance ratio has therefore been defined. In this study, the biological impact of an acute exposure to low physiological doses of DUVR (corresponding to 10 and 20% of the dose received per day in Paris mid-April) on a 3 dimensional reconstructed skin model, was analysed. In such conditions, epidermal and dermal morphological alterations could only be detected after the highest dose of DUVR. We then focused on oxidative stress response induced by DUVR, by analyzing the modulation of mRNA level of 24 markers in parallel in fibroblasts and keratinocytes. DUVR significantly modulated mRNA levels of these markers in both cell types. A cell type differential response was noticed: it was faster in fibroblasts, with a majority of inductions and high levels of modulation in contrast to keratinocyte response. Our results thus revealed a higher sensitivity in response to oxidative stress of dermal fibroblasts although located deeper in the skin, giving new insights into the skin biological events occurring in everyday UV exposure. PMID:20706594

  19. Rapid Responsiveness to Practice Predicts Longer-Term Retention of Upper Extremity Motor Skill in Non-Demented Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Schaefer, Sydney Y.; Duff, Kevin

    2015-01-01

    Skill acquisition is a form of motor learning that may provide key insights into the aging brain. Although previous work suggests that older adults learn novel motor tasks slower and to a lesser extent than younger adults, we have recently demonstrated no significant effect of chronological age on the rates and amounts of skill acquisition, nor on its long-term retention, in adults over the age of 65. To better understand predictors of skill acquisition in non-demented older adults, we now explore the relationship between early improvements in motor performance due to practice (i.e., rapid responsiveness) and longer-term retention of an upper extremity motor skill, and whether the extent of rapid responsiveness was associated with global cognitive status. Results showed significant improvements in motor performance within the first five (of 150) trials, and that this “rapid responsiveness” was predictive of skill retention 1 month later. Notably, the extent of rapid responsiveness was not dependent on global cognitive status, as measured by the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). Thus, rapid responsiveness appears to be an important variable in longer-term neurorehabilitative efforts with older adults, regardless of their cognitive status. PMID:26635601

  20. Different oxidative stress response in keratinocytes and fibroblasts of reconstructed skin exposed to non extreme daily-ultraviolet radiation.

    PubMed

    Marionnet, Claire; Pierrard, Cécile; Lejeune, François; Sok, Juliette; Thomas, Marie; Bernerd, Françoise

    2010-08-10

    Experiments characterizing the biological effects of sun exposure have usually involved solar simulators. However, they addressed the worst case scenario i.e. zenithal sun, rarely found in common outdoor activities. A non-extreme ultraviolet radiation (UV) spectrum referred as "daily UV radiation" (DUVR) with a higher UVA (320-400 nm) to UVB (280-320 nm) irradiance ratio has therefore been defined. In this study, the biological impact of an acute exposure to low physiological doses of DUVR (corresponding to 10 and 20% of the dose received per day in Paris mid-April) on a 3 dimensional reconstructed skin model, was analysed. In such conditions, epidermal and dermal morphological alterations could only be detected after the highest dose of DUVR. We then focused on oxidative stress response induced by DUVR, by analyzing the modulation of mRNA level of 24 markers in parallel in fibroblasts and keratinocytes. DUVR significantly modulated mRNA levels of these markers in both cell types. A cell type differential response was noticed: it was faster in fibroblasts, with a majority of inductions and high levels of modulation in contrast to keratinocyte response. Our results thus revealed a higher sensitivity in response to oxidative stress of dermal fibroblasts although located deeper in the skin, giving new insights into the skin biological events occurring in everyday UV exposure.

  1. A simple optical model to estimate diffuse attenuation coefficient of photosynthetically active radiation in an extremely turbid lake from surface reflectance.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yunlin; Liu, Xiaohan; Yin, Yan; Wang, Mingzhu; Qin, Boqiang

    2012-08-27

    Accurate estimation of the diffuse attenuation coefficient is critical for our understanding and modelling of key physical, chemical, and biological processes in water bodies. For extremely turbid, shallow, Lake Taihu in China, we synchronously monitored the diffuse attenuation coefficient of photosynthetically active radiation (Kd(PAR)) and the remote sensing reflectance at 134 sites. Kd(PAR)) varied greatly among different sites from 1.62 to 14.68 m(-1) with a mean value of 5.62 ± 2.99 m(-1). A simple optical model from near-infrared remote sensing reflectance of MODIS channels 2 (859 nm) and 15 (748 nm) was calibrated, and validated, to estimate Kd(PAR). With the simple optical model, the root mean square error and mean relative error were 0.95 m(-1) and 17.0% respectively at 748 nm, and 0.98 m(-1) and 17.6% at 859 nm, based on an independent validation data set. Our results showed a good precision of estimation for Kd(PAR) using the new simple optical model, contrasting with the poor estimations derived from existing empirical and semi-analytical models developed in clear, open ocean waters or slightly turbid coastal waters. Although at 748 nm the model had slightly higher precision than at 859 nm, the spatial resolution at 859 nm was four times that at 748 nm. Therefore, we propose a new model based on the MODIS-derived normalized water-leaving radiances at a wavelength of 859 nm, for accurate retrieval of Kd(PAR) in extremely turbid, shallow lakes with Kd(PAR) larger than 1.5 m(-1).

  2. Mechanical response tissue analyzer for estimating bone strength

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arnaud, Sara B.; Steele, Charles; Mauriello, Anthony

    1991-01-01

    One of the major concerns for extended space flight is weakness of the long bones of the legs, composed primarily of cortical bone, that functions to provide mechanical support. The strength of cortical bone is due to its complex structure, described simplistically as cylinders of parallel osteons composed of layers of mineralized collagen. The reduced mechanical stresses during space flight or immobilization of bone on Earth reduces the mineral content, and changes the components of its matrix and structure so that its strength is reduced. Currently, the established clinical measures of bone strength are indirect. The measures are based on determinations of mineral density by means of radiography, photon absorptiometry, and quantitative computer tomography. While the mineral content of bone is essential to its strength, there is growing awareness of the limitations of the measurement as the sole predictor of fracture risk in metabolic bone diseases, especially limitations of the measurement as the sole predictor of fracture risk in metabolic bone diseases, especially osteoporosis. Other experimental methods in clinical trials that more directly evaluate the physical properties of bone, and do not require exposure to radiation, include ultrasound, acoustic emission, and low-frequency mechanical vibration. The last method can be considered a direct measure of the functional capacity of a long bone since it quantifies the mechanical response to a stimulus delivered directly to the bone. A low frequency vibration induces a response (impedance) curve with a minimum at the resonant frequency, that a few investigators use for the evaluation of the bone. An alternative approach, the method under consideration, is to use the response curve as the basis for determination of the bone bending stiffness EI (E is the intrinsic material property and I is the cross-sectional moment of inertia) and mass, fundamental mechanical properties of bone.

  3. [Response and Control Factors of Groundwater to Extreme Weather, Jiguan Cave, Henan Province, China].

    PubMed

    Liu, Xiao; Yang, Yan; Peng, Tao; Zhao, Jing-yao; Ren, Xiao-feng; Zhang, Yin-huan; Nie Xu-dong; Li, Jian-cang; Ling, Xin-you; Zhang, Zhi-qin

    2015-05-01

    Geochemical dynamics of cave water were monitored to unveil its variation and controlling factors from October 2009 to December 2013 in Jiguan Cave,west of Henan province,southeastern coast of the loess plateau. The results showed that: (1) the hydrochemical types of the cave water are HCO(3-)-Ca(2+)-Mg2+ and HCO(3-)-Mg(2+)-Ca2+. HCO(3-) are over 80% of the anions, Ca2+ and Mg2+ are the dominate cations, and ground river keeping in erosion and pool water drips in deposition all the year. (2) Dripping water and pool water in Ji guan cave can respond perfectly to the change of external climate environment, which geochemistry indexes possess the extraordinary seasonal effects. (3) The concentration changes of the Ca2+, Mg2+ , SO4(2-) responded sensitively to annual precipitation change. Ca2+, Mg2+, SO4(2-) rise in waterlogging year and fall in drought year. Because HCO(3-) controlled by CO2 concentration. HCO(3-) concentration showed a unconspicuous response to the change of external climate environment. (4) The concentration changes of Ca2+, Mg2+, SO4(2-) have no obvious seasonal variation and showed a unconspicuous response to the change of external climate environment.

  4. Contribution of Protein and Lipid Components to the Salt Response of Envelopes of an Extremely Halophilic Bacterium1

    PubMed Central

    Kushner, D. J.; Onishi, H.

    1966-01-01

    Kushner, D. J. (National Research Council, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada), and H. Onishi. Contribution of protein and lipid components to the salt response of envelopes of an extremely halophilic bacterium. J. Bacteriol. 91:653–660. 1966.—Removal of protein from envelopes of Halobacterium cutirubrum by peptic digestion left residues that required little or no salt for stability. The salt requirement of envelopes was also lowered by incubation in 0.1 m MgCl2, and could be lowered even further by digestion with trypsin or chymotrypsin in 0.1 m MgCl2. Dissolution of envelopes in low salt concentrations made their protein more susceptible to attack by these and other proteolytic enzymes. Removal of lipids raised the requirement for divalent cations, particularly for Mg++; it slightly increased the Na+ requirement and did not affect the requirement for K+. It was concluded that the requirement for high salt concentrations in extreme halophiles is due to mutual repulsion between negatively charged groups on proteins rather than to repulsion between negatively charged phosphate groups on the lipids. The latter act primarily as sites on which divalent cations, especially Mg++ which is required in high concentrations by growing cells, are bound. In this manner, the phosphate groups support envelope structure. PMID:5327362

  5. Synthesis of Concepts in Disturbance Hydrology and the Importance for Hydrologic Response to Extreme Hydroclimatic Events in the Critical Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebel, B. A.; Mirus, B. B.

    2014-12-01

    The watersheds we rely on for water resources, ecosystem services, and protection from hydrologically driven natural hazards are increasingly impacted by landscape disturbance. Abrupt alterations of hydrologic processes resulting from wildfires, urban development, resource extraction, deforestation, hurricanes, tsunamis, and landslides change the storage or buffering capacity as well as the hydrologic functional connectivity in watersheds. We highlight some of the critical issues and major challenges to predicting disturbance impacts on water resources and natural hazards and outline some of the opportunities for improved mechanistic understanding of how disturbances propagate through landscape hydrological processes. In particular, we emphasize synthesis of conceptual commonalities and opportunities from other disciplines, primarily ecologic sciences, which are well versed in the study of disturbed landscapes. Cross scale interactions and complex adaptive systems theory are examples of useful concepts for synthesis across different disturbance effects. We also highlight the importance of improved understanding of disturbance hydrology for predicting the effects of extreme hydroclimatic events on the hydrologic response of the Critical Zone. An example from the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains, USA of a watershed with multiple disturbances subjected to a low frequency extreme rainfall event is presented to show the diversity of runoff generation mechanisms and the implications for watershed scale impacts.

  6. Hemodynamic and neurohormonal responses to extreme orthostatic stress in physically fit young adults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grasser, E. K.; Goswami, N.; Rössler, A.; Vrecko, K.; Hinghofer-Szalkay, H.

    2009-04-01

    Blood pressure stability may be jeopardized in astronauts experiencing orthostatic stress. There is disagreement about cardiovascular and endocrine stress responses that emerge when a critical (presyncopal) state is reached. We studied hemodynamic and neurohormonal changes as induced by an orthostatic stress paradigm (head-up tilt combined with lower body negative pressure) that leads to a syncopal endpoint. From supine control to presyncope, heart rate increased by 78% and thoracic impedance by 12%. There was a 49% fall in stroke volume index, 19% in mean arterial blood pressure, 14% in total peripheral resistance index and 11% in plasma volume. Plasma norepinephrine rose by 107, epinephrine by 491, plasma renin activity by 167, and cortisol by 25%. Hemodynamic and hormonal changes of clearly different magnitude emerge in presyncope as compared to supine rest. Additional studies are warranted to reveal the exact time course of orthostatic changes up to syncopal levels.

  7. Phylogenetically Driven Sequencing of Extremely Halophilic Archaea Reveals Strategies for Static and Dynamic Osmo-response

    PubMed Central

    Tritt, Andrew; Larsen, David; Krusor, Megan; Yao, Andrew I.; Wu, Dongying; Madern, Dominique; Eisen, Jonathan A.; Darling, Aaron E.; Facciotti, Marc T.

    2014-01-01

    Organisms across the tree of life use a variety of mechanisms to respond to stress-inducing fluctuations in osmotic conditions. Cellular response mechanisms and phenotypes associated with osmoadaptation also play important roles in bacterial virulence, human health, agricultural production and many other biological systems. To improve understanding of osmoadaptive strategies, we have generated 59 high-quality draft genomes for the haloarchaea (a euryarchaeal clade whose members thrive in hypersaline environments and routinely experience drastic changes in environmental salinity) and analyzed these new genomes in combination with those from 21 previously sequenced haloarchaeal isolates. We propose a generalized model for haloarchaeal management of cytoplasmic osmolarity in response to osmotic shifts, where potassium accumulation and sodium expulsion during osmotic upshock are accomplished via secondary transport using the proton gradient as an energy source, and potassium loss during downshock is via a combination of secondary transport and non-specific ion loss through mechanosensitive channels. We also propose new mechanisms for magnesium and chloride accumulation. We describe the expansion and differentiation of haloarchaeal general transcription factor families, including two novel expansions of the TATA-binding protein family, and discuss their potential for enabling rapid adaptation to environmental fluxes. We challenge a recent high-profile proposal regarding the evolutionary origins of the haloarchaea by showing that inclusion of additional genomes significantly reduces support for a proposed large-scale horizontal gene transfer into the ancestral haloarchaeon from the bacterial domain. The combination of broad (17 genera) and deep (≥5 species in four genera) sampling of a phenotypically unified clade has enabled us to uncover both highly conserved and specialized features of osmoadaptation. Finally, we demonstrate the broad utility of such datasets, for

  8. Signal inference with unknown response: Calibration-uncertainty renormalized estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorn, Sebastian; Enßlin, Torsten A.; Greiner, Maksim; Selig, Marco; Boehm, Vanessa

    2015-01-01

    The calibration of a measurement device is crucial for every scientific experiment, where a signal has to be inferred from data. We present CURE, the calibration-uncertainty renormalized estimator, to reconstruct a signal and simultaneously the instrument's calibration from the same data without knowing the exact calibration, but its covariance structure. The idea of the CURE method, developed in the framework of information field theory, is to start with an assumed calibration to successively include more and more portions of calibration uncertainty into the signal inference equations and to absorb the resulting corrections into renormalized signal (and calibration) solutions. Thereby, the signal inference and calibration problem turns into a problem of solving a single system of ordinary differential equations and can be identified with common resummation techniques used in field theories. We verify the CURE method by applying it to a simplistic toy example and compare it against existent self-calibration schemes, Wiener filter solutions, and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. We conclude that the method is able to keep up in accuracy with the best self-calibration methods and serves as a noniterative alternative to them.

  9. Signal inference with unknown response: calibration-uncertainty renormalized estimator.

    PubMed

    Dorn, Sebastian; Enßlin, Torsten A; Greiner, Maksim; Selig, Marco; Boehm, Vanessa

    2015-01-01

    The calibration of a measurement device is crucial for every scientific experiment, where a signal has to be inferred from data. We present CURE, the calibration-uncertainty renormalized estimator, to reconstruct a signal and simultaneously the instrument's calibration from the same data without knowing the exact calibration, but its covariance structure. The idea of the CURE method, developed in the framework of information field theory, is to start with an assumed calibration to successively include more and more portions of calibration uncertainty into the signal inference equations and to absorb the resulting corrections into renormalized signal (and calibration) solutions. Thereby, the signal inference and calibration problem turns into a problem of solving a single system of ordinary differential equations and can be identified with common resummation techniques used in field theories. We verify the CURE method by applying it to a simplistic toy example and compare it against existent self-calibration schemes, Wiener filter solutions, and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. We conclude that the method is able to keep up in accuracy with the best self-calibration methods and serves as a noniterative alternative to them.

  10. Strain response of thermal barrier coatings captured under extreme engine environments through synchrotron X-ray diffraction.

    PubMed

    Knipe, Kevin; Manero, Albert; Siddiqui, Sanna F; Meid, Carla; Wischek, Janine; Okasinski, John; Almer, Jonathan; Karlsson, Anette M; Bartsch, Marion; Raghavan, Seetha

    2014-01-01

    The mechanical behaviour of thermal barrier coatings in operation holds the key to understanding durability of jet engine turbine blades. Here we report the results from experiments that monitor strains in the layers of a coating subjected to thermal gradients and mechanical loads representing extreme engine environments. Hollow cylindrical specimens, with electron beam physical vapour deposited coatings, were tested with internal cooling and external heating under various controlled conditions. High-energy synchrotron X-ray measurements captured the in situ strain response through the depth of each layer, revealing the link between these conditions and the evolution of local strains. Results of this study demonstrate that variations in these conditions create corresponding trends in depth-resolved strains with the largest effects displayed at or near the interface with the bond coat. With larger temperature drops across the coating, significant strain gradients are seen, which can contribute to failure modes occurring within the layer adjacent to the interface. PMID:25078347

  11. BROAD-LINE REGION PHYSICAL CONDITIONS IN EXTREME POPULATION A QUASARS: A METHOD TO ESTIMATE CENTRAL BLACK HOLE MASS AT HIGH REDSHIFT

    SciTech Connect

    Negrete, C. Alenka; Dultzin, Deborah; Marziani, Paola; Sulentic, Jack W. E-mail: deborah@astro.unam.mx E-mail: sulentic@iaa.es

    2012-09-20

    We describe a method for estimating physical conditions in the broad-line region (BLR) for a significant subsample of Seyfert 1 nuclei and quasars. Several diagnostic ratios based on intermediate (Al III {lambda}1860, Si III] {lambda}1892) and high (C IV {lambda}1549, Si IV {lambda}1397) ionization lines in the UV spectra of quasars are used to constrain density, ionization, and metallicity of the emitting gas. We apply the method to two extreme Population A quasars-the prototypical NLSy1 I Zw 1 and higher z source SDSS J120144.36+011611.6. Under assumptions of spherical symmetry and pure photoionization we infer BLR physical conditions: low ionization (ionization parameter <10{sup -2}), high density (10{sup 12}-10{sup 13} cm{sup -3}), and significant metal enrichment. Ionization parameter and density can be derived independently for each source with an uncertainty that is less than {+-}0.3 dex. We use the product of density and ionization parameter to estimate the BLR radius and derive an estimation of the virial black hole mass (M{sub BH}). Estimates of M{sub BH} based on the 'photoionization' analysis described in this paper are probably more accurate than those derived from the mass-luminosity correlations widely employed to compute black hole masses for high-redshift quasars.

  12. A preliminary estimate of the EUVE cumulative distribution of exposure time on the unit sphere. [Extreme Ultra-Violet Explorer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tang, C. C. H.

    1984-01-01

    A preliminary study of an all-sky coverage of the EUVE mission is given. Algorithms are provided to compute the exposure of the celestial sphere under the spinning telescopes, taking into account that during part of the exposure time the telescopes are blocked by the earth. The algorithms are used to give an estimate of exposure time at different ecliptic latitudes as a function of the angle of field of view of the telescope. Sample coverage patterns are also given for a 6-month mission.

  13. Structural and functional responses of extremity veins to long-term gravitational loading or unloading—lessons from animal systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monos, Emil; Raffai, Gábor; Dörnyei, Gabriella; Nádasy, György L.; Fehér, Erzsébet

    2007-02-01

    Long, transparent tubular tilt-cages were developed to maintain experimental rats either in 45∘ head-up (orthostasis model), or in 45∘ head-down body position (antiorthostasis model) for several weeks. In order to study the functional and structural changes in extremity blood vessels, also novel pressure angiograph systems, as well as special quantitative electron microscopic methods were applied. It was found that several adaptive mechanisms are activated in the lower limb superficial veins and microvessels of muscles when an organism is exposed to long-term (1-2 weeks) orthostatic-type gravitational load including a reversible amplification of the pressure-dependent myogenic response, tuning of the myogenic tone by Ca++- and voltage-sensitive K+ channels in humans, augmentation of the intramural sympathetic innervation involving an increased nerve terminal density and synaptic vesicle count with functional remodeling, reorganization of vascular network properties (microvascular rarefaction in muscles, decreased branching angles in superficial veins), and responses of an endothelin and platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) containing vesicle system in the endothelium. On the other hand, when applying long-term head-down tilting, the effects are dichotomous, e.g. it suppresses significantly the pressure-induced myogenic response, however does not diminish the adventitial sympathetic innervation density.

  14. Extreme Hypoxic Conditions Induce Selective Molecular Responses and Metabolic Reset in Detached Apple Fruit

    PubMed Central

    Cukrov, Dubravka; Zermiani, Monica; Brizzolara, Stefano; Cestaro, Alessandro; Licausi, Francesco; Luchinat, Claudio; Santucci, Claudio; Tenori, Leonardo; Van Veen, Hans; Zuccolo, Andrea; Ruperti, Benedetto; Tonutti, Pietro

    2016-01-01

    The ripening physiology of detached fruit is altered by low oxygen conditions with profound effects on quality parameters. To study hypoxia-related processes and regulatory mechanisms, apple (Malus domestica, cv Granny Smith) fruit, harvested at commercial ripening, were kept at 1°C under normoxic (control) and hypoxic (0.4 and 0.8 kPa oxygen) conditions for up to 60 days. NMR analyses of cortex tissue identified eight metabolites showing significantly different accumulations between samples, with ethanol and alanine displaying the most pronounced difference between hypoxic and normoxic treatments. A rapid up-regulation of alcohol dehydrogenase and pyruvate-related metabolism (lactate dehydrogenase, pyruvate decarboxylase, alanine aminotransferase) gene expression was detected under both hypoxic conditions with a more pronounced effect induced by the lowest (0.4 kPa) oxygen concentration. Both hypoxic conditions negatively affected ACC synthase and ACC oxidase transcript accumulation. Analysis of RNA-seq data of samples collected after 24 days of hypoxic treatment identified more than 1000 genes differentially expressed when comparing 0.4 vs. 0.8 kPa oxygen concentration samples. Genes involved in cell-wall, minor and major CHO, amino acid and secondary metabolisms, fermentation and glycolysis as well as genes involved in transport, defense responses, and oxidation-reduction appeared to be selectively affected by treatments. The lowest oxygen concentration induced a higher expression of transcription factors belonging to AUX/IAA, WRKY, HB, Zinc-finger families, while MADS box family genes were more expressed when apples were kept under 0.8 kPa oxygen. Out of the eight group VII ERF members present in apple genome, two genes showed a rapid up-regulation under hypoxia, and western blot analysis showed that apple MdRAP2.12 proteins were differentially accumulated in normoxic and hypoxic samples, with the highest level reached under 0.4 kPa oxygen. These data suggest

  15. Extreme Hypoxic Conditions Induce Selective Molecular Responses and Metabolic Reset in Detached Apple Fruit.

    PubMed

    Cukrov, Dubravka; Zermiani, Monica; Brizzolara, Stefano; Cestaro, Alessandro; Licausi, Francesco; Luchinat, Claudio; Santucci, Claudio; Tenori, Leonardo; Van Veen, Hans; Zuccolo, Andrea; Ruperti, Benedetto; Tonutti, Pietro

    2016-01-01

    The ripening physiology of detached fruit is altered by low oxygen conditions with profound effects on quality parameters. To study hypoxia-related processes and regulatory mechanisms, apple (Malus domestica, cv Granny Smith) fruit, harvested at commercial ripening, were kept at 1°C under normoxic (control) and hypoxic (0.4 and 0.8 kPa oxygen) conditions for up to 60 days. NMR analyses of cortex tissue identified eight metabolites showing significantly different accumulations between samples, with ethanol and alanine displaying the most pronounced difference between hypoxic and normoxic treatments. A rapid up-regulation of alcohol dehydrogenase and pyruvate-related metabolism (lactate dehydrogenase, pyruvate decarboxylase, alanine aminotransferase) gene expression was detected under both hypoxic conditions with a more pronounced effect induced by the lowest (0.4 kPa) oxygen concentration. Both hypoxic conditions negatively affected ACC synthase and ACC oxidase transcript accumulation. Analysis of RNA-seq data of samples collected after 24 days of hypoxic treatment identified more than 1000 genes differentially expressed when comparing 0.4 vs. 0.8 kPa oxygen concentration samples. Genes involved in cell-wall, minor and major CHO, amino acid and secondary metabolisms, fermentation and glycolysis as well as genes involved in transport, defense responses, and oxidation-reduction appeared to be selectively affected by treatments. The lowest oxygen concentration induced a higher expression of transcription factors belonging to AUX/IAA, WRKY, HB, Zinc-finger families, while MADS box family genes were more expressed when apples were kept under 0.8 kPa oxygen. Out of the eight group VII ERF members present in apple genome, two genes showed a rapid up-regulation under hypoxia, and western blot analysis showed that apple MdRAP2.12 proteins were differentially accumulated in normoxic and hypoxic samples, with the highest level reached under 0.4 kPa oxygen. These data suggest

  16. Some classes of estimators in the presence of non-response using auxiliary attribute.

    PubMed

    Riaz, Saba; Darda, Md Abud

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, possible solutions of problem of non-response in the variable of interest are proposed when information about an auxiliary attribute is available. By taking motivation from the previous work, modified classes have been suggested for estimating population mean. Two new generalized classes of estimators are presented along with their asymptotic biases and variances. Efficacy analysis of the suggested classes is acquired with the usual regression estimator. Two real examples have been provided to show the efficiency of the proposed design approach and comparison of suggested estimators with the linear regression estimator. PMID:27540504

  17. Ecological Response to Extreme Flow Events in Streams and Rivers: Implications of Climate Change for Aquatic Biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawkins, C. P.; Vander Laan, J. J.; Dhungel, S.; Tarboton, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    We used the USEPA's 2008-2009 National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) data to assess the potential sensitivity of stream biodiversity to both spatial variation in measures of extreme flow and likely changes in extreme flows associated with projected climate change. The NRSA data consisted of macroinvertebrate samples collected at 1313 reference-quality sites. We characterized the hydrologic regimes at each of these sites by developing Random Forest empirical models from long-term (≥ 20 years) daily flow records obtained from 601 gaged USGS stations. These models described spatial variation in 16 flow variables as a function of climate and watershed attributes. Three of the models characterized aspects of extreme flow: the mean number of zero-flow events per year (ZeroDays), the mean number of high-flow events per year (HighDays = number of events per year that exceed the 95th percentile of mean annual flow), and the coefficient of variation of daily flows (CV). We used these models to predict the flow attributes expected at each of the 1313 sites with ecological data. We then built additional Random Forest models that related among-site differences in stream macroinvertebrate taxonomic composition, assemblage richness, and the likelihood of observing individual taxa to the 16 measures of flow regime and other environmental predictors. At the national level, ZeroDays was an important predictor of macroinvertebrate biodiversity: richness declined as ZeroDays increased. A similar pattern was observed when analyses were restricted to lowland and plains streams. For eastern highland streams, HighDays was a better predictor of stream biodiversity than aspects of low flow: richness declined as HighDays increased. For western streams, CV was a better predictor of biodiversity than either ZeroDays or HighDays: biodiversity decreased as CV increased. Empirical models that linked flow attributes to climate change projections imply that flow regime response to climate

  18. Professional ethics in extreme circumstances: responsibilities of attending physicians and healthcare providers in hunger strikes.

    PubMed

    Irmak, Nurbay

    2015-08-01

    Hunger strikes potentially present a serious challenge for attending physicians. Though rare, in certain cases, a conflict can occur between the obligations of beneficence and autonomy. On the one hand, physicians have a duty to preserve life, which entails intervening in a hunger strike before the hunger striker loses his life. On the other hand, physicians' duty to respect autonomy implies that attending physicians have to respect hunger strikers' decisions to refuse nutrition. International medical guidelines state that physicians should follow the strikers' unpressured advance directives. When physicians encounter an unconscious striker, in the absence of reliable advance directives, the guidelines advise physicians to make a decision on the basis of the patient's values, previously expressed wishes, and best interests. I argue that if there are no advance directives and the striker has already lost his competence, the physician has the responsibility to resuscitate the striker. Once the striker regains his decision-making capacity, he should be asked about his decision. If he is determined to continue fasting and refuses treatment, the physician has a moral obligation to respect this decisions and follow his advance directives.

  19. Extreme Postinjection Flare in Response to Intra-Articular Triamcinolone Acetonide (Kenalog).

    PubMed

    Young, Porter; Homlar, Kelly C

    2016-01-01

    As intra-articular corticosteroid injections (CSIs) are a common treatment for osteoarthritis, physicians must well understand their potential side effects. Postinjection flares are an acute side effect of intra-articular CSIs, with symptoms ranging from mild joint effusion to disabling pain. The present case involved a severe postinjection flare that occurred after the patient, a 56-year-old woman with moderate osteoarthritis in the left knee, received 2 mL of 1% lidocaine and 2 mL (40 mg) of triamcinolone acetonide (Kenalog). Two hours after injection, she experienced swelling and intense pain in the knee and was unable to ambulate. The knee was aspirated with a return of 25 mL of "butterscotch"-colored fluid. This case is novel in that its acuity of onset, severity of symptoms, and synovial fluid analysis mimicked septic arthritis, which was ultimately ruled out with negative cultures and confirmation of triamcinolone acetonide crystals in the synovial aspirate, viewed by polarized light microscopy. Thus, the patient's reaction represents an acute crystal-induced inflammatory response. Although reactions to an intra-articular CSI of this severity are rare, it is important for treating physicians to inform patients of this potential side effect.

  20. Tumor response estimation in radar-based microwave breast cancer detection.

    PubMed

    Kurrant, Douglas J; Fear, Elise C; Westwick, David T

    2008-12-01

    Radar-based microwave imaging techniques have been proposed for early stage breast cancer detection. A considerable challenge for the successful implementation of these techniques is the reduction of clutter, or components of the signal originating from objects other than the tumor. In particular, the reduction of clutter from the late-time scattered fields is required in order to detect small (subcentimeter diameter) tumors. In this paper, a method to estimate the tumor response contained in the late-time scattered fields is presented. The method uses a parametric function to model the tumor response. A maximum a posteriori estimation approach is used to evaluate the optimal values for the estimates of the parameters. A pattern classification technique is then used to validate the estimation. The ability of the algorithm to estimate a tumor response is demonstrated by using both experimental and simulated data obtained with a tissue sensing adaptive radar system.

  1. A Study of Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Response Time Models in Item Response Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suh, Hongwook

    2010-01-01

    Response time has been regarded as an important source for investigating the relationship between human performance and response speed. It is important to examine the relationship between response time and item characteristics, especially in the perspective of the relationship between response time and various factors that affect examinee's…

  2. Item Response Theory with Estimation of the Latent Population Distribution Using Spline-Based Densities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Carol M.; Thissen, David

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new method for fitting item response theory models with the latent population distribution estimated from the data using splines. A spline-based density estimation system provides a flexible alternative to existing procedures that use a normal distribution, or a different functional form, for the…

  3. Bi-Factor Multidimensional Item Response Theory Modeling for Subscores Estimation, Reliability, and Classification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Md Desa, Zairul Nor Deana

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, there has been increasing interest in estimating and improving subscore reliability. In this study, the multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) and the bi-factor model were combined to estimate subscores, to obtain subscores reliability, and subscores classification. Both the compensatory and partially compensatory MIRT…

  4. Measurement Error in Nonparametric Item Response Curve Estimation. Research Report. ETS RR-11-28

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guo, Hongwen; Sinharay, Sandip

    2011-01-01

    Nonparametric, or kernel, estimation of item response curve (IRC) is a concern theoretically and operationally. Accuracy of this estimation, often used in item analysis in testing programs, is biased when the observed scores are used as the regressor because the observed scores are contaminated by measurement error. In this study, we investigate…

  5. Calculation of Coupled Vibroacoustics Response Estimates from a Library of Available Uncoupled Transfer Function Sets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Andrew; LaVerde, Bruce; Hunt, Ron; Fulcher, Clay; Towner, Robert; McDonald, Emmett

    2012-01-01

    The design and theoretical basis of a new database tool that quickly generates vibroacoustic response estimates using a library of transfer functions (TFs) is discussed. During the early stages of a launch vehicle development program, these response estimates can be used to provide vibration environment specification to hardware vendors. The tool accesses TFs from a database, combines the TFs, and multiplies these by input excitations to estimate vibration responses. The database is populated with two sets of uncoupled TFs; the first set representing vibration response of a bare panel, designated as H(sup s), and the second set representing the response of the free-free component equipment by itself, designated as H(sup c). For a particular configuration undergoing analysis, the appropriate H(sup s) and H(sup c) are selected and coupled to generate an integrated TF, designated as H(sup s +c). This integrated TF is then used with the appropriate input excitations to estimate vibration responses. This simple yet powerful tool enables a user to estimate vibration responses without directly using finite element models, so long as suitable H(sup s) and H(sup c) sets are defined in the database libraries. The paper discusses the preparation of the database tool and provides the assumptions and methodologies necessary to combine H(sup s) and H(sup c) sets into an integrated H(sup s + c). An experimental validation of the approach is also presented.

  6. Aerobic stabilization of biological sludge characterized by an extremely low decay rate: modeling, identifiability analysis and parameter estimation.

    PubMed

    Martínez-García, C G; Olguín, M T; Fall, C

    2014-08-01

    Aerobic digestion batch tests were run on a sludge model that contained only two fractions, the heterotrophic biomass (XH) and its endogenous residue (XP). The objective was to describe the stabilization of the sludge and estimate the endogenous decay parameters. Modeling was performed with Aquasim, based on long-term data of volatile suspended solids and chemical oxygen demand (VSS, COD). Sensitivity analyses were carried out to determine the conditions for unique identifiability of the parameters. Importantly, it was found that the COD/VSS ratio of the endogenous residues (1.06) was significantly lower than for the active biomass fraction (1.48). The decay rate constant of the studied sludge (low bH, 0.025 d(-1)) was one-tenth that usually observed (0.2d(-1)), which has two main practical significances. Digestion time required is much more long; also the oxygen uptake rate might be <1.5 mg O₂/gTSSh (biosolids standards), without there being significant decline in the biomass.

  7. Avian responses to an extreme ice storm are determined by a combination of functional traits, behavioural adaptations and habitat modifications

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Qiang; Hong, Yongmi; Zou, Fasheng; Zhang, Min; Lee, Tien Ming; Song, Xiangjin; Rao, Jiteng

    2016-01-01

    The extent to which species’ traits, behavior and habitat synergistically determine their response to extreme weather events (EWE) remains poorly understood. By quantifying bird and vegetation assemblages before and after the 2008 ice storm in China, combined with interspecific interactions and foraging behaviours, we disentangled whether storm influences avian reassembly directly via functional traits (i.e. behavioral adaptations), or indirectly via habitat variations. We found that overall species richness decreased, with 20 species detected exclusively before the storm, and eight species detected exclusively after. These shifts in bird relative abundance were linked to habitat preferences, dietary guild and flocking behaviours. For instance, forest specialists at higher trophic levels (e.g. understory-insectivores, woodpeckers and kingfishers) were especially vulnerable, whereas open-habitat generalists (e.g. bulbuls) were set to benefit from potential habitat homogenization. Alongside population fluctuations, we found that community reassembly can be rapidly adjusted via foraging plasticity (i.e. increased flocking propensity and reduced perching height). And changes in preferred habitat corresponded to a variation in bird assemblages and traits, as represented by intact canopy cover and high density of large trees. Accurate predictions of community responses to EWE are crucial to understanding ecosystem disturbances, thus linking species-oriented traits to a coherent analytical framework. PMID:26929387

  8. Avian responses to an extreme ice storm are determined by a combination of functional traits, behavioural adaptations and habitat modifications.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qiang; Hong, Yongmi; Zou, Fasheng; Zhang, Min; Lee, Tien Ming; Song, Xiangjin; Rao, Jiteng

    2016-01-01

    The extent to which species' traits, behavior and habitat synergistically determine their response to extreme weather events (EWE) remains poorly understood. By quantifying bird and vegetation assemblages before and after the 2008 ice storm in China, combined with interspecific interactions and foraging behaviours, we disentangled whether storm influences avian reassembly directly via functional traits (i.e. behavioral adaptations), or indirectly via habitat variations. We found that overall species richness decreased, with 20 species detected exclusively before the storm, and eight species detected exclusively after. These shifts in bird relative abundance were linked to habitat preferences, dietary guild and flocking behaviours. For instance, forest specialists at higher trophic levels (e.g. understory-insectivores, woodpeckers and kingfishers) were especially vulnerable, whereas open-habitat generalists (e.g. bulbuls) were set to benefit from potential habitat homogenization. Alongside population fluctuations, we found that community reassembly can be rapidly adjusted via foraging plasticity (i.e. increased flocking propensity and reduced perching height). And changes in preferred habitat corresponded to a variation in bird assemblages and traits, as represented by intact canopy cover and high density of large trees. Accurate predictions of community responses to EWE are crucial to understanding ecosystem disturbances, thus linking species-oriented traits to a coherent analytical framework. PMID:26929387

  9. Avian responses to an extreme ice storm are determined by a combination of functional traits, behavioural adaptations and habitat modifications.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qiang; Hong, Yongmi; Zou, Fasheng; Zhang, Min; Lee, Tien Ming; Song, Xiangjin; Rao, Jiteng

    2016-03-01

    The extent to which species' traits, behavior and habitat synergistically determine their response to extreme weather events (EWE) remains poorly understood. By quantifying bird and vegetation assemblages before and after the 2008 ice storm in China, combined with interspecific interactions and foraging behaviours, we disentangled whether storm influences avian reassembly directly via functional traits (i.e. behavioral adaptations), or indirectly via habitat variations. We found that overall species richness decreased, with 20 species detected exclusively before the storm, and eight species detected exclusively after. These shifts in bird relative abundance were linked to habitat preferences, dietary guild and flocking behaviours. For instance, forest specialists at higher trophic levels (e.g. understory-insectivores, woodpeckers and kingfishers) were especially vulnerable, whereas open-habitat generalists (e.g. bulbuls) were set to benefit from potential habitat homogenization. Alongside population fluctuations, we found that community reassembly can be rapidly adjusted via foraging plasticity (i.e. increased flocking propensity and reduced perching height). And changes in preferred habitat corresponded to a variation in bird assemblages and traits, as represented by intact canopy cover and high density of large trees. Accurate predictions of community responses to EWE are crucial to understanding ecosystem disturbances, thus linking species-oriented traits to a coherent analytical framework.

  10. Umbilical cord gene expression reveals the molecular architecture of the fetal inflammatory response in extremely preterm newborns

    PubMed Central

    Costa, Daniel; Castelo, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Background: The fetal inflammatory response (FIR) in placental membranes to an intrauterine infection often precedes premature birth raising neonatal mortality and morbidity. However, the precise molecular events behind FIR still remain largely unknown, and little has been investigated at gene expression level. Methods: We collected publicly available microarray expression data profiling umbilical cord (UC) tissue derived from the cohort of extremely low gestational age newborns (ELGANs) and interrogate them for differentially expressed (DE) genes between FIR and non–FIR-affected ELGANs. Results: We found a broad and complex FIR UC gene expression signature, changing up to 19% (3,896/20,155) of all human genes at 1% false discovery rate. Significant changes of a minimum 50% magnitude (1,097/3,896) affect the upregulation of many inflammatory pathways and molecules, such as cytokines, toll-like receptors, and calgranulins. Remarkably, they also include the downregulation of neurodevelopmental pathways and genes, such as Fragile-X mental retardation 1 (FMR1), contactin 1 (CNTN1), and adenomatous polyposis coli (APC). Conclusion: The FIR expression signature in UC tissue contains molecular clues about signaling pathways that trigger FIR, and it is consistent with an acute inflammatory response by fetal innate and adaptive immune systems, which participate in the pathogenesis of neonatal brain damage. PMID:26539667

  11. Population and osmoregulatory responses of a euryhaline fish to extreme salinity fluctuations in coastal lagoons of the Coorong, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wedderburn, Scotte D.; Bailey, Colin P.; Delean, Steven; Paton, David C.

    2016-01-01

    River flows and salinity are key factors structuring fish assemblages in estuaries. The osmoregulatory ability of a fish determines its capacity to tolerate rising salt levels when dispersal is unfeasible. Estuarine fishes can tolerate minor fluctuations in salinity, but a relatively small number of species in a few families can inhabit extreme hypersaline waters. The Murray-Darling Basin drains an extensive area of south-eastern Australia and river flows end at the mouth of the River Murray. The system is characterized by erratic rainfall and highly variable flows which have been reduced by intensive river regulation and water extraction. The Coorong is a coastal lagoon system extending some 110 km south-eastwards from the mouth. It is an inverted estuary with a salinity gradient that typically ranges from estuarine to triple that of sea water. Hypersalinity in the southern region suits a select suite of biota, including the smallmouth hardyhead Atherinosoma microstoma - a small-bodied, euryhaline fish with an annual life cycle. The population response of A. microstoma in the Coorong was examined during a period of considerable hydrological variation and extreme salinity fluctuations (2001-2014), and the findings were related to its osmoregulatory ability. Most notably, the species was extirpated from over 50% of its range during four continuous years without river flows when salinities exceeded 120 (2007-2010). These salinities exceeded the osmoregulatory ability of A. microstoma. Substantial river flows that reached the Coorong in late 2010 and continued into 2011 led salinities to fall below 100 throughout the Coorong by January 2012. Subsequently, A. microstoma recovered to its former range by January 2012. The findings show that the consequences of prolonged periods of insufficient river flows to temperate inverted estuaries will include substantial declines in the range of highly euryhaline fishes, which also may have wider ecological consequences.

  12. The Dynamic Response of Marine Life to Extreme Temperature and Low Oxygen Events Following the End-Permian Mass Extinction.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pietsch, C.; Bottjer, D. J.

    2014-12-01

    The end-Permian mass extinction was the most devastating taxonomic and ecological crisis in the history of life on Earth. The recovery lasted 5 My making it the longest in geologic history, although the cause of the delay is still heavily debated. We find that additional environmental changes during the recovery interval reset the attempts that marine communities made toward ecological complexity, resulting in the overall appearance of a stagnant recovery. The extinction mechanisms during the end-Permian include extreme temperature change and low oxygen environments resulting from the volcanic emission of carbon dioxide and other toxic gasses to the atmosphere. The biotic response to ancient environmental change is a direct analog for the ecological impacts of modern anthropogenic climate change. We applied an ecological recovery rubric to benthic, sea floor dwelling, communities throughout the Early Triassic recovery in two major ocean basins. Newly collected bulk fossil data from the Moenkopi and Thaynes Formations from the Southwest US and the Werfen Formation in Italy were analyzed along with literature data. In Italy, directly following the extinction, low oxygen environments prevented an ecological rebound. Once low oxygen conditions receded, 600 kyr after the extinction, taxonomic diversity, fossil body size, and trace fossil complexity rebounded. A little more than 1 My into the Early Triassic, an extreme temperature event resulted in a reset of community complexity in both Italy and the Southwest US. The body size of gastropods and the repopulation of echinoderms were significantly inhibited as was trace fossil complexity. Low oxygen conditions that developed in the last ~2My of the Early Triassic limited diversity and body size in the Southwest United States. The stagnant recovery is re-interpreted as dynamic resets and rapid rebounds driven by environmental perturbations throughout the Early Triassic.

  13. An Extension of Least Squares Estimation of IRT Linking Coefficients for the Graded Response Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Seonghoon

    2010-01-01

    The three types (generalized, unweighted, and weighted) of least squares methods, proposed by Ogasawara, for estimating item response theory (IRT) linking coefficients under dichotomous models are extended to the graded response model. A simulation study was conducted to confirm the accuracy of the extended formulas, and a real data study was…

  14. Estimation of dose-response models for discrete and continuous data in weed science

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Dose-response analysis is widely used in biological sciences and has application to a variety of risk assessment, bioassay, and calibration problems. In weed science, dose-response methodologies have typically relied on least squares estimation under an assumption of normality. Advances in computati...

  15. Loss Factor Estimation Using the Impulse Response Decay Method on a Stiffened Structure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cabell, Randolph; Schiller, Noah; Allen, Albert; Moeller, Mark

    2009-01-01

    High-frequency vibroacoustic modeling is typically performed using energy-based techniques such as Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA). Energy models require an estimate of the internal damping loss factor. Unfortunately, the loss factor is difficult to estimate analytically, and experimental methods such as the power injection method can require extensive measurements over the structure of interest. This paper discusses the implications of estimating damping loss factors using the impulse response decay method (IRDM) from a limited set of response measurements. An automated procedure for implementing IRDM is described and then evaluated using data from a finite element model of a stiffened, curved panel. Estimated loss factors are compared with loss factors computed using a power injection method and a manual curve fit. The paper discusses the sensitivity of the IRDM loss factor estimates to damping of connected subsystems and the number and location of points in the measurement ensemble.

  16. β-Adrenergic response is counteracted by extremely-low-frequency pulsed electromagnetic fields in beating cardiomyocytes.

    PubMed

    Cornacchione, Marisa; Pellegrini, Manuela; Fassina, Lorenzo; Mognaschi, Maria Evelina; Di Siena, Sara; Gimmelli, Roberto; Ambrosino, Paolo; Soldovieri, Maria Virginia; Taglialatela, Maurizio; Gianfrilli, Daniele; Isidori, Andrea M; Lenzi, Andrea; Naro, Fabio

    2016-09-01

    Proper β-adrenergic signaling is indispensable for modulating heart frequency. Studies on extremely-low-frequency pulsed electromagnetic field (ELF-PEMF) effects in the heart beat function are contradictory and no definitive conclusions were obtained so far. To investigate the interplay between ELF-PEMF exposure and β-adrenergic signaling, cultures of primary murine neonatal cardiomyocytes and of sinoatrial node were exposed to ELF-PEMF and short and long-term effects were evaluated. The ELF-PEMF generated a variable magnetic induction field of 0-6mT at a frequency of 75Hz. Exposure to 3mT ELF-PEMF induced a decrease of contraction rate, Ca(2+) transients, contraction force, and energy consumption both under basal conditions and after β-adrenergic stimulation in neonatal cardiomyocytes. ELF-PEMF exposure inhibited β-adrenergic response in sinoatrial node (SAN) region. ELF-PEMF specifically modulated β2 adrenergic receptor response and the exposure did not modify the increase of contraction rate after adenylate cyclase stimulation by forskolin. In HEK293T cells transfected with β1 or β2 adrenergic receptors, ELF-PEMF exposure induced a rapid and selective internalization of β2 adrenergic receptor. The β-adrenergic signaling, was reduced trough Gi protein by ELF-PEMF exposure since the phosphorylation level of phospholamban and the PI3K pathway were impaired after isoproterenol stimulation in neonatal cardiomyocytes. Long term effects of ELF-PEMF exposure were assessed in cultures of isolated cardiomyocytes. ELF-PEMF counteracts cell size increase, the generation of binucleated of cardiomyocytes and prevents the up-regulation of hypertrophic markers after β-adrenergic stimulation, indicating an inhibition of cell growth and maturation. These data show that short and long term exposure to ELF-PEMF induces a reduction of cardiac β-adrenergic response at molecular, functional and adaptative levels.

  17. β-Adrenergic response is counteracted by extremely-low-frequency pulsed electromagnetic fields in beating cardiomyocytes.

    PubMed

    Cornacchione, Marisa; Pellegrini, Manuela; Fassina, Lorenzo; Mognaschi, Maria Evelina; Di Siena, Sara; Gimmelli, Roberto; Ambrosino, Paolo; Soldovieri, Maria Virginia; Taglialatela, Maurizio; Gianfrilli, Daniele; Isidori, Andrea M; Lenzi, Andrea; Naro, Fabio

    2016-09-01

    Proper β-adrenergic signaling is indispensable for modulating heart frequency. Studies on extremely-low-frequency pulsed electromagnetic field (ELF-PEMF) effects in the heart beat function are contradictory and no definitive conclusions were obtained so far. To investigate the interplay between ELF-PEMF exposure and β-adrenergic signaling, cultures of primary murine neonatal cardiomyocytes and of sinoatrial node were exposed to ELF-PEMF and short and long-term effects were evaluated. The ELF-PEMF generated a variable magnetic induction field of 0-6mT at a frequency of 75Hz. Exposure to 3mT ELF-PEMF induced a decrease of contraction rate, Ca(2+) transients, contraction force, and energy consumption both under basal conditions and after β-adrenergic stimulation in neonatal cardiomyocytes. ELF-PEMF exposure inhibited β-adrenergic response in sinoatrial node (SAN) region. ELF-PEMF specifically modulated β2 adrenergic receptor response and the exposure did not modify the increase of contraction rate after adenylate cyclase stimulation by forskolin. In HEK293T cells transfected with β1 or β2 adrenergic receptors, ELF-PEMF exposure induced a rapid and selective internalization of β2 adrenergic receptor. The β-adrenergic signaling, was reduced trough Gi protein by ELF-PEMF exposure since the phosphorylation level of phospholamban and the PI3K pathway were impaired after isoproterenol stimulation in neonatal cardiomyocytes. Long term effects of ELF-PEMF exposure were assessed in cultures of isolated cardiomyocytes. ELF-PEMF counteracts cell size increase, the generation of binucleated of cardiomyocytes and prevents the up-regulation of hypertrophic markers after β-adrenergic stimulation, indicating an inhibition of cell growth and maturation. These data show that short and long term exposure to ELF-PEMF induces a reduction of cardiac β-adrenergic response at molecular, functional and adaptative levels. PMID:27418252

  18. Estimating the impulse response of buried objects from ground-penetrating radar signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Lijn, Fedde; Roth, Friedrich; Verhaegen, Michel

    2003-09-01

    This paper presents a novel deconvolution algorithm designed to estimate the impulse response of buried objects based on ground penetrating radar (GPR) signals. The impulse response is a rich source of information about the buried object and therefore very useful for intelligent signal processing of GPR data. For example, it can be used in a target classification scheme to reduce the false alarm rate in demining operations. Estimating the target impulse response from the incident and scattered radar signals is a basic deconvolution problem. However, noise sensitivity and ground dispersion prevent the use of simple deconvolution methods like linear least squares deconvolution. Instead, a new deconvolution algorithm has been developed that computes estimates adhering to a physical impulse response model and that can be characterized by a limited number of parameters. It is shown that the new algorithm is robust with respect to noise and that it can deal with ground dispersion. The general performance of the algorithm has been tested on data generated by finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) simulations. The results demonstrate that the algorithm can distinguish between different dielectric and metal targets, making it very suitable for use in a classification scheme. Moreover, since the estimated impulse responses have physical meaning they can be related to target characteristics such as size and material properties. A direct application of this is the estimation of the permittivity of a dielectric target from its impulse response and that of a calibration target.

  19. Cropland responses to extreme winter temperature events: results from a manipulation experiment in north-eastern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.

    2011-12-01

    In the last years, several studies has focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to climate warming. Most of them have been conducted on natural ecosystems (forests or grasslands), but few have considered intensively managed ecosystems such as croplands despite of their global extension. In particular, extreme events, such as temperature changes outside the growing season (winter) when soil is not covered by plants, can have a strong impact on soil respiration, residues decomposition, yield and overall net biome production (NBP). In this study, we investigated the response of soil respiration (total and heterotrophic), aboveground NPP, yield and NBP on a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) due to a manipulated warmer or cooler winter. The experiment was carried out in Beano (46°00' N 13°01'E, Italy). Soil albedo and soil temperature were manipulated by covering soil surface during late winter with a layer of inert ceramized silica gravel. We tested three treatments with three replicates each: cooling (Co; white gravel), warming (W; black gravel), mix (M; black and white 4:1 gravel) and control (C; bare soil). An automated soil respiration system measured continuously total soil CO2 efflux across all the year and heterotrophic respiration after sowing in root exclusion subplots. Additionally, soil temperature profiles (0, 2.5, 5 and 10 cm depth), soil water content (between 5 and 10 cm depth) were monitored in each plot. After sowing, soybean phenological phases were periodically assessed and final yield was measured in each plot. Preliminary results showed a significant change in upper soil temperature between gravel application and canopy closure (maximum of + 5.8 °C and - 6.8 °C in the warming and cooling treatments, respectively). However, warming had only a transient effect on soil respiration (increase) before sowing. Thereafter, as soon as fresh organic matter availability decreased, soil respiration rate decreased and annual budget was not

  20. Cropland responses to extreme winter temperature events: results from a manipulation experiment in north-eastern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.

    2012-04-01

    In the last years, several studies has focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to climate warming. Most of them have been conducted on natural ecosystems (forests or grasslands), but few have considered intensively managed ecosystems such as croplands despite of their global extension. In particular, extreme events, such as temperature changes outside the growing season (winter) when soil is not covered by plants, can have a strong impact on soil respiration, residues decomposition, yield and overall net biome production (NBP). In this study, we investigated the response of soil respiration (total and heterotrophic), aboveground NPP, yield and NBP on a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) due to a manipulated warmer or cooler winter. The experiment was carried out in Beano (46°00' N 13°01'E, Italy). Soil albedo and soil temperature were manipulated by covering soil surface during late winter with a layer of inert ceramized silica gravel. We tested three treatments with three replicates each: cooling (Co; white gravel), warming (W; black gravel), mix (M; black and white 4:1 gravel) and control (C; bare soil). An automated soil respiration system measured continuously total soil CO2 efflux across all the year and heterotrophic respiration after sowing in root exclusion subplots. Additionally, soil temperature profiles (0, 2.5, 5 and 10 cm depth), soil water content (between 5 and 10 cm depth) were monitored in each plot. After sowing, soybean phenological phases were periodically assessed and final yield was measured in each plot. Results showed a significant change in upper soil temperature between gravel application and canopy closure (maximum of + 5.8 °C and - 6.8 °C in the warming and cooling treatments, respectively). However, warming had only a transient effect on soil respiration (increase) before sowing. Thereafter, as soon as fresh organic matter availability decreased, soil respiration rate decreased and annual budget was not significantly different

  1. Response of precipitation extremes to global warming in an aqua-planet climate model: towards robust projection from regional to global scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, F.; Collins, W.; Wehner, M. F.; Williamson, D.; Olson, J.

    2010-12-01

    Robust projection of precipitation extremes is essential for human society to prepare for future climate change. To understand the inconsistencies of the projections across the climate models, a series of idealized “aquaplanet” AGCM runs have been performed with CAM3 to investigate the effects of horizontal resolution on precipitation extreme projections under two simple global warming scenarios. The absence of orography helps diagnose the response of the physics responsible for extreme rainfall to change with resolution. Results show that a uniform increase of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase of low-to-high latitude SST gradient both lead to increase of precipitation and precipitation extremes for most latitudes. The perturbed SSTs generally have stronger impacts on precipitation extremes compared with mean precipitation. Model horizontal-resolution strongly affects the global warming signals in the extreme precipitation in the low-mid latitudes, but not in high latitude regions. This study illustrates the need for resolution-invariant treatment of atmospheric processes.

  2. Estimation of seismic response of buildings with a few accelerometers without input data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suzuki, Yu; Mita, Akira

    2016-04-01

    To assess the health of buildings, maximum inter-story drift angle is recognized as an important indicator. If we have to estimate maximum inter-story drift angle very precisely, we need to install accelerometers on all floors. However, it is not realistic due to the cost. In many methods to estimate the response using small number of accelerometers, the excitation (input) is assumed to be available. However, in some cases, some sensors including the input sensor may not be available. Thus, in this paper, we propose a method for the estimating inter-story drift angle using small number of accelerometers without knowing input information. The proposed method is based on two assumptions. One is that the response is represented by the superposition of the response of only lower modes. The other is that mode vectors and participation factors are available from the structural design model. Based on the assumption, first, we estimate modal frequencies and damping ratios using the subspace method from obtained acceleration data. Second, we decompose observed acceleration data to each mode by solving simultaneous equations using pseudo-inverse matrix. Third, we calculate mode response by focusing on the vibration equation of each mode. It was verified that this method could successfully estimate the modal response as well as the inter-story drift angles.

  3. Climate change impacts: The challenge of quantifying multi-factor causation, multi-component responses, and leveraging from extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Field, C. B.

    2012-12-01

    Modeling climate change impacts is challenging for a variety of reasons. Some of these are related to causation. A weather or climate event is rarely the sole cause of an impact, and, for many impacts, social, economic, cultural, or ecological factors may play a larger role than climate. Other challenges are related to outcomes. Consequences of an event are often most severe when several kinds of responses interact, typically in unexpected ways. Many kinds of consequences are difficult to quantify, especially when they include a mix of market, cultural, personal, and ecological values. In addition, scale can be tremendously important. Modest impacts over large areas present very different challenges than severe but very local impacts. Finally, impacts may respond non-linearly to forcing, with behavior that changes qualitatively at one or more thresholds and with unexpected outcomes in extremes. Modeling these potentially complex interactions between drivers and impacts presents one set of challenges. Evaluating the models presents another. At least five kinds of approaches can contribute to the evaluation of impact models designed to provide insights in multi-driver, multi-responder, multi-scale, and extreme-driven contexts, even though none of these approaches is a complete or "silver-bullet" solution. The starting point for much of the evaluation in this space is case studies. Case studies can help illustrate links between processes and scales. They can highlight factors that amplify or suppress sensitivity to climate drivers, and they can suggest the consequences of intervening at different points. While case studies rarely provide concrete evidence about mechanisms, they can help move a mechanistic case from circumstantial to sound. Novel approaches to data collection, including crowd sourcing, can potentially provide tools and the number of relevant examples to develop case studies as statistically robust data sources. A critical condition for progress in this

  4. Dual fluorophore PNA FIT-probes--extremely responsive and bright hybridization probes for the sensitive detection of DNA and RNA.

    PubMed

    Socher, Elke; Knoll, Andrea; Seitz, Oliver

    2012-09-28

    Fluorescently labeled oligonucleotides are commonly employed as probes to detect specific DNA or RNA sequences in homogeneous solution. Useful probes should experience strong increases in fluorescent emission upon hybridization with the target. We developed dual labeled peptide nucleic acid probes, which signal the presence of complementary DNA or RNA by up to 450-fold enhancements of fluorescence intensity. This enabled the very sensitive detection of a DNA target (40 pM LOD), which was detectable at less than 0.1% of the beacon concentration. In contrast to existing DNA-based molecular beacons, this PNA-based method does not require a stem sequence to enforce dye-dye communication. Rather, the method relies on the energy transfer between a "smart" thiazole orange (TO) nucleotide, which requires formation of the probe-target complex in order to become fluorescent, and terminally appended acceptor dyes. To improve upon fluorescence responsiveness the energy pathways were dissected. Hydrophobic, spectrally mismatched dye combinations allowed significant (99.97%) decreases of background emission in the absence of a target. By contrast, spectral overlap between TO donor emission and acceptor excitation enabled extremely bright FRET signals. This and the large apparent Stokes shift (82 nm) suggests potential applications in the detection of specific RNA targets in biogenic matrices without the need of sample pre-processing prior to detection.

  5. Simple and Fast Continuous Estimation Method of Respiratory Frequency During Sleep using the Number of Extreme Points of Heart Rate Time Series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoshida, Yutaka; Yokoyama, Kiyoko; Ishii, Naohiro

    It is reported that frequency component of approximately 0.25Hz of heart rate time series (RSA) is corresponding to the respiratory frequency. In this paper, we proposed that continuous estimation method of respiratory fequency during sleep using the number of extreme points of heart rate time series in real time. Equation for calculation of the method is very simple and the method can continuously calculate frequency by window width of about 18 beats. To evaluate accuracy of proposal method, RSA frequency was calculated using proposal method from the heart rate time series during supine rest. Result, minimum error rate was observed when RSA had time lag for about 11s and error rate was about 13.8%. Result of estimating RSA frequency time series during sleep, it varied regularly during non-REM and varied irregularly during REM. This result is similar as report of previous study about respiratory variability during sleep. Therefore, it is considered that proposal method possible to apply respiratory monitoring system during sleep.

  6. Windowpane flounder (Scophthalmus aquosus) and winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) responses to cold temperature extremes in a Northwest Atlantic estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilber, Dara H.; Clarke, Douglas G.; Alcoba, Catherine M.; Gallo, Jenine

    2016-01-01

    The effect of climate variability on flatfish includes not only the effects of warming on sensitive life history stages, but also impacts from more frequent or unseasonal extreme cold temperatures. Cold weather events can affect the overwintering capabilities of flatfish near their low temperature range limits. We examined the responses of two flatfish species, the thin-bodied windowpane (Scophthalmus aquosus) and cold-tolerant winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus), to variable winter temperatures in a Northwest Atlantic estuary using abundance and size data collected during a monitoring study, the Aquatic Biological Survey, conducted from 2002 to 2010. Winter and spring abundances of small (50 to 120 mm total length) juvenile windowpane were positively correlated with adult densities (spawning stock) and fall temperatures (thermal conditions experienced during post-settlement development for the fall-spawned cohort) of the previous year. Windowpane abundances in the estuary were significantly reduced and the smallest size class was nearly absent after several consecutive years with cold (minimum temperatures < 1 °C) winters. Interannual variation in winter flounder abundances was unrelated to the severity of winter temperatures. A Paulik diagram illustrates strong positive correlations between annual abundances of sequential winter flounder life history stages (egg, larval, Age-1 juvenile, and adult male) within the estuary, reflecting residency within the estuary through their first year of life. Temperature variables representing conditions during winter flounder larval and post-settlement development were not significant factors in multiple regression models exploring factors that affect juvenile abundances. Likewise, densities of predators known to consume winter flounder eggs and/or post-settlement juveniles were not significantly related to interannual variation in winter flounder juvenile abundances. Colder estuarine temperatures through the

  7. Sample Size Requirements for Estimation of Item Parameters in the Multidimensional Graded Response Model.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Shengyu; Wang, Chun; Weiss, David J

    2016-01-01

    Likert types of rating scales in which a respondent chooses a response from an ordered set of response options are used to measure a wide variety of psychological, educational, and medical outcome variables. The most appropriate item response theory model for analyzing and scoring these instruments when they provide scores on multiple scales is the multidimensional graded response model (MGRM) A simulation study was conducted to investigate the variables that might affect item parameter recovery for the MGRM. Data were generated based on different sample sizes, test lengths, and scale intercorrelations. Parameter estimates were obtained through the flexMIRT software. The quality of parameter recovery was assessed by the correlation between true and estimated parameters as well as bias and root-mean-square-error. Results indicated that for the vast majority of cases studied a sample size of N = 500 provided accurate parameter estimates, except for tests with 240 items when 1000 examinees were necessary to obtain accurate parameter estimates. Increasing sample size beyond N = 1000 did not increase the accuracy of MGRM parameter estimates. PMID:26903916

  8. A fast-time-response extreme ultraviolet spectrometer for measurement of impurity line emissions in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ling; Morita, Shigeru; Xu, Zong; Wu, Zhenwei; Zhang, Pengfei; Wu, Chengrui; Gao, Wei; Ohishi, Tetsutarou; Goto, Motoshi; Shen, Junsong; Chen, Yingjie; Liu, Xiang; Wang, Yumin; Dong, Chunfeng; Zhang, Hongmin; Huang, Xianli; Gong, Xianzu; Hu, Liqun; Chen, Junlin; Zhang, Xiaodong; Wan, Baonian; Li, Jiangang

    2015-12-01

    A flat-field extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectrometer working in the 20-500 Å wavelength range with fast time response has been newly developed to measure line emissions from highly ionized tungsten in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) with a tungsten divertor, while the monitoring of light and medium impurities is also an aim in the present development. A flat-field focal plane for spectral image detection is made by a laminar-type varied-line-spacing concave holographic grating with an angle of incidence of 87°. A back-illuminated charge-coupled device (CCD) with a total size of 26.6 × 6.6 mm2 and pixel numbers of 1024 × 255 (26 × 26 μm2/pixel) is used for recording the focal image of spectral lines. An excellent spectral resolution of Δλ0 = 3-4 pixels, where Δλ0 is defined as full width at the foot position of a spectral line, is obtained at the 80-400 Å wavelength range after careful adjustment of the grating and CCD positions. The high signal readout rate of the CCD can improve the temporal resolution of time-resolved spectra when the CCD is operated in the full vertical binning mode. It is usually operated at 5 ms per frame. If the vertical size of the CCD is reduced with a narrow slit, the time response becomes faster. The high-time response in the spectral measurement therefore makes possible a variety of spectroscopic studies, e.g., impurity behavior in long pulse discharges with edge-localized mode bursts. An absolute intensity calibration of the EUV spectrometer is also carried out with a technique using the EUV bremsstrahlung continuum at 20-150 Å for quantitative data analysis. Thus, the high-time resolution tungsten spectra have been successfully observed with good spectral resolution using the present EUV spectrometer system. Typical tungsten spectra in the EUV wavelength range observed from EAST discharges are presented with absolute intensity and spectral identification.

  9. A fast-time-response extreme ultraviolet spectrometer for measurement of impurity line emissions in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Morita, Shigeru; Xu, Zong; Wu, Zhenwei; Zhang, Pengfei; Wu, Chengrui; Gao, Wei; Ohishi, Tetsutarou; Goto, Motoshi; Shen, Junsong; Chen, Yingjie; Liu, Xiang; Wang, Yumin; Dong, Chunfeng; Zhang, Hongmin; Huang, Xianli; Gong, Xianzu; Hu, Liqun; Chen, Junlin; Zhang, Xiaodong; Wan, Baonian; Li, Jiangang

    2015-12-01

    A flat-field extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectrometer working in the 20-500 Å wavelength range with fast time response has been newly developed to measure line emissions from highly ionized tungsten in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) with a tungsten divertor, while the monitoring of light and medium impurities is also an aim in the present development. A flat-field focal plane for spectral image detection is made by a laminar-type varied-line-spacing concave holographic grating with an angle of incidence of 87°. A back-illuminated charge-coupled device (CCD) with a total size of 26.6 × 6.6 mm(2) and pixel numbers of 1024 × 255 (26 × 26 μm(2)/pixel) is used for recording the focal image of spectral lines. An excellent spectral resolution of Δλ0 = 3-4 pixels, where Δλ0 is defined as full width at the foot position of a spectral line, is obtained at the 80-400 Å wavelength range after careful adjustment of the grating and CCD positions. The high signal readout rate of the CCD can improve the temporal resolution of time-resolved spectra when the CCD is operated in the full vertical binning mode. It is usually operated at 5 ms per frame. If the vertical size of the CCD is reduced with a narrow slit, the time response becomes faster. The high-time response in the spectral measurement therefore makes possible a variety of spectroscopic studies, e.g., impurity behavior in long pulse discharges with edge-localized mode bursts. An absolute intensity calibration of the EUV spectrometer is also carried out with a technique using the EUV bremsstrahlung continuum at 20-150 Å for quantitative data analysis. Thus, the high-time resolution tungsten spectra have been successfully observed with good spectral resolution using the present EUV spectrometer system. Typical tungsten spectra in the EUV wavelength range observed from EAST discharges are presented with absolute intensity and spectral identification. PMID:26724029

  10. A fast-time-response extreme ultraviolet spectrometer for measurement of impurity line emissions in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Ling; Xu, Zong; Wu, Zhenwei; Zhang, Pengfei; Wu, Chengrui; Gao, Wei; Shen, Junsong; Chen, Yingjie; Liu, Xiang; Wang, Yumin; Gong, Xianzu; Hu, Liqun; Chen, Junlin; Zhang, Xiaodong; Wan, Baonian; Li, Jiangang; Morita, Shigeru; Ohishi, Tetsutarou; Goto, Motoshi; Dong, Chunfeng; and others

    2015-12-15

    A flat-field extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectrometer working in the 20-500 Å wavelength range with fast time response has been newly developed to measure line emissions from highly ionized tungsten in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) with a tungsten divertor, while the monitoring of light and medium impurities is also an aim in the present development. A flat-field focal plane for spectral image detection is made by a laminar-type varied-line-spacing concave holographic grating with an angle of incidence of 87°. A back-illuminated charge-coupled device (CCD) with a total size of 26.6 × 6.6 mm{sup 2} and pixel numbers of 1024 × 255 (26 × 26 μm{sup 2}/pixel) is used for recording the focal image of spectral lines. An excellent spectral resolution of Δλ{sub 0} = 3-4 pixels, where Δλ{sub 0} is defined as full width at the foot position of a spectral line, is obtained at the 80-400 Å wavelength range after careful adjustment of the grating and CCD positions. The high signal readout rate of the CCD can improve the temporal resolution of time-resolved spectra when the CCD is operated in the full vertical binning mode. It is usually operated at 5 ms per frame. If the vertical size of the CCD is reduced with a narrow slit, the time response becomes faster. The high-time response in the spectral measurement therefore makes possible a variety of spectroscopic studies, e.g., impurity behavior in long pulse discharges with edge-localized mode bursts. An absolute intensity calibration of the EUV spectrometer is also carried out with a technique using the EUV bremsstrahlung continuum at 20-150 Å for quantitative data analysis. Thus, the high-time resolution tungsten spectra have been successfully observed with good spectral resolution using the present EUV spectrometer system. Typical tungsten spectra in the EUV wavelength range observed from EAST discharges are presented with absolute intensity and spectral identification.

  11. A fast-time-response extreme ultraviolet spectrometer for measurement of impurity line emissions in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Morita, Shigeru; Xu, Zong; Wu, Zhenwei; Zhang, Pengfei; Wu, Chengrui; Gao, Wei; Ohishi, Tetsutarou; Goto, Motoshi; Shen, Junsong; Chen, Yingjie; Liu, Xiang; Wang, Yumin; Dong, Chunfeng; Zhang, Hongmin; Huang, Xianli; Gong, Xianzu; Hu, Liqun; Chen, Junlin; Zhang, Xiaodong; Wan, Baonian; Li, Jiangang

    2015-12-01

    A flat-field extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectrometer working in the 20-500 Å wavelength range with fast time response has been newly developed to measure line emissions from highly ionized tungsten in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) with a tungsten divertor, while the monitoring of light and medium impurities is also an aim in the present development. A flat-field focal plane for spectral image detection is made by a laminar-type varied-line-spacing concave holographic grating with an angle of incidence of 87°. A back-illuminated charge-coupled device (CCD) with a total size of 26.6 × 6.6 mm(2) and pixel numbers of 1024 × 255 (26 × 26 μm(2)/pixel) is used for recording the focal image of spectral lines. An excellent spectral resolution of Δλ0 = 3-4 pixels, where Δλ0 is defined as full width at the foot position of a spectral line, is obtained at the 80-400 Å wavelength range after careful adjustment of the grating and CCD positions. The high signal readout rate of the CCD can improve the temporal resolution of time-resolved spectra when the CCD is operated in the full vertical binning mode. It is usually operated at 5 ms per frame. If the vertical size of the CCD is reduced with a narrow slit, the time response becomes faster. The high-time response in the spectral measurement therefore makes possible a variety of spectroscopic studies, e.g., impurity behavior in long pulse discharges with edge-localized mode bursts. An absolute intensity calibration of the EUV spectrometer is also carried out with a technique using the EUV bremsstrahlung continuum at 20-150 Å for quantitative data analysis. Thus, the high-time resolution tungsten spectra have been successfully observed with good spectral resolution using the present EUV spectrometer system. Typical tungsten spectra in the EUV wavelength range observed from EAST discharges are presented with absolute intensity and spectral identification.

  12. Response of precipitation extremes to idealized global warming in an aqua-planet climate model: Towards robust projection across different horizontal resolutions

    SciTech Connect

    Li, F.; Collins, W.D.; Wehner, M.F.; Williamson, D.L.; Olson, J.G.

    2011-04-15

    Current climate models produce quite heterogeneous projections for the responses of precipitation extremes to future climate change. To help understand the range of projections from multimodel ensembles, a series of idealized 'aquaplanet' Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) runs have been performed with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM3. These runs have been analysed to identify the effects of horizontal resolution on precipitation extreme projections under two simple global warming scenarios. We adopt the aquaplanet framework for our simulations to remove any sensitivity to the spatial resolution of external inputs and to focus on the roles of model physics and dynamics. Results show that a uniform increase of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase of low-to-high latitude SST gradient both lead to increase of precipitation and precipitation extremes for most latitudes. The perturbed SSTs generally have stronger impacts on precipitation extremes than on mean precipitation. Horizontal model resolution strongly affects the global warming signals in the extreme precipitation in tropical and subtropical regions but not in high latitude regions. This study illustrates that the effects of horizontal resolution have to be taken into account to develop more robust projections of precipitation extremes.

  13. Fission spectrum covariance matrix and sensitivity coefficients for response parameter uncertainty estimation.

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, W. S.; Aliberti, G.; McKnight, R. D.; Kodeli, I.; Nuclear Engineering Division; IAEA Rep at OECD /NEA Data Bank

    2008-12-01

    This paper discusses the consistent usage of fission spectrum covariance matrices and sensitivity coefficients for response parameter uncertainty estimation. The effects of covariance matrix normalization on response parameter uncertainties are described from a mathematical point of view, along with their inter-relation with the constrained sensitivity coefficients. The numerical precision for practical renormalization of covariance matrices and the impact of the constrained sensitivity coefficients are also discussed by estimating the multiplication factor uncertainties due to fission spectrum uncertainties for a sodium-cooled fast burner core concept.

  14. An estimate of the response of a telephone repeater to a wideband pulse using FAAT techniques

    SciTech Connect

    Bacon, L.D.; Hoffman, J.M.

    1992-09-01

    The purpose of a FAAT analysis is to estimate the probability of system upset to an electromagnetic threat, for systems on which we have incomplete information. As an example of this process, we will discuss the response of part of a telephone repeater system to wideband transients. We first estimate the currents induced on above-ground and buried cables. After that, we describe the simple circuit we used to build a model of the amplifier and protective devices. Finally, we describe the scaling of the energy deposited in the electronics, including its nonlinear large-signal response, with the amplitude of the wideband waveforms.

  15. Summary of methods for calculating dynamic lateral stability and response and for estimating aerodynamic stability derivatives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Campbell, John P; Mckinney, Marion O

    1952-01-01

    A summary of methods for making dynamic lateral stability and response calculations and for estimating the aerodynamic stability derivatives required for use in these calculations is presented. The processes of performing calculations of the time histories of lateral motions, of the period and damping of these motions, and of the lateral stability boundaries are presented as a series of simple straightforward steps. Existing methods for estimating the stability derivatives are summarized and, in some cases, simple new empirical formulas are presented. Detailed estimation methods are presented for low-subsonic-speed conditions but only a brief discussion and a list of references are given for transonic and supersonic speed conditions.

  16. Mayer waves reduce the accuracy of estimated hemodynamic response functions in functional near-infrared spectroscopy

    PubMed Central

    Yücel, Meryem A.; Selb, Juliette; Aasted, Christopher M.; Lin, Pei-Yi; Borsook, David; Becerra, Lino; Boas, David A.

    2016-01-01

    Analysis of cerebral hemodynamics reveals a wide spectrum of oscillations ranging from 0.0095 to 2 Hz. While most of these oscillations can be filtered out during analysis of functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) signals when estimating stimulus evoked hemodynamic responses, oscillations around 0.1 Hz are an exception. This is due to the fact that they share a common spectral range with typical stimulus evoked hemodynamic responses from the brain. Here we investigate the effect of hemodynamic oscillations around 0.1 Hz on the estimation of hemodynamic response functions from fNIRS data. Our results show that for an expected response of ~1 µM in oxygenated hemoglobin concentration (HbO), Mayer wave oscillations with an amplitude > ~1 µM at 0.1 Hz reduce the accuracy of the estimated response as quantified by a 3 fold increase in the mean squared error and decrease in correlation (R2 below 0.78) when compared to the true HRF. These results indicate that the amplitude of oscillations at 0.1 Hz can serve as an objective metric of the expected HRF estimation accuracy. In addition, we investigated the effect of short separation regression on the recovered HRF, and found that this improves the recovered HRF when large amplitude 0.1 Hz oscillations are present in fNIRS data. We suspect that the development of other filtering strategies may provide even further improvement. PMID:27570699

  17. Mayer waves reduce the accuracy of estimated hemodynamic response functions in functional near-infrared spectroscopy.

    PubMed

    Yücel, Meryem A; Selb, Juliette; Aasted, Christopher M; Lin, Pei-Yi; Borsook, David; Becerra, Lino; Boas, David A

    2016-08-01

    Analysis of cerebral hemodynamics reveals a wide spectrum of oscillations ranging from 0.0095 to 2 Hz. While most of these oscillations can be filtered out during analysis of functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) signals when estimating stimulus evoked hemodynamic responses, oscillations around 0.1 Hz are an exception. This is due to the fact that they share a common spectral range with typical stimulus evoked hemodynamic responses from the brain. Here we investigate the effect of hemodynamic oscillations around 0.1 Hz on the estimation of hemodynamic response functions from fNIRS data. Our results show that for an expected response of ~1 µM in oxygenated hemoglobin concentration (HbO), Mayer wave oscillations with an amplitude > ~1 µM at 0.1 Hz reduce the accuracy of the estimated response as quantified by a 3 fold increase in the mean squared error and decrease in correlation (R(2) below 0.78) when compared to the true HRF. These results indicate that the amplitude of oscillations at 0.1 Hz can serve as an objective metric of the expected HRF estimation accuracy. In addition, we investigated the effect of short separation regression on the recovered HRF, and found that this improves the recovered HRF when large amplitude 0.1 Hz oscillations are present in fNIRS data. We suspect that the development of other filtering strategies may provide even further improvement. PMID:27570699

  18. Methodology to estimate the transient evoked responses for the generation of steady state responses.

    PubMed

    Bohórquez, Jorge; Ozdamar, Ozcan; Açikgöz, Nuri; Yavuz, Erdem

    2007-01-01

    A method to acquire transient evoked responses at high rates, corresponding to traditional steady state responses (SSR) is developed. Continuous Loop Averaging Deconvolution (CLAD) method is used in conjunction with tailored, low-jitter stimulation sequences. A physiological brain convolution model for SSR generation is adapted and mathematically analyzed. A SSR synthesis method from acquired transient evoked potentials is proposed and implemented. The mathematical models are used to guide the stimulation sequence design method. Visual evoked potentials (VEP) at 10 Hz and auditory evoked responses (AER) at 40 Hz and 80 Hz are acquired using the specially designed and the traditional SSR sequences. Acquired and synthetically generated SSRs are then compared in time and frequency domains to asses the method consistency. The experimental results show an excellent agreement between the acquired and synthetic SSR in all three modalities.

  19. Storms or cold fronts? What is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

    2015-05-01

    On Friday, 7 March 2009, a 200 m-long section of the tourist pier in Puerto Colombia collapsed under the impact of the waves generated by a cold front in the area. The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms on extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean to determine the degree of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed and the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the wave's height; therefore, it is necessary to definitively know the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. Using Gumbel's extreme value methodology, the significant height values for the study area were calculated. The methodology was evaluated using data from the re-analysis of the spectral NOAA Wavewatch III (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombia Caribbean coast (continental and insular) of the last 15 years. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area formed by Baja Guajira, Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena, the strong influence of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. On the other hand, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast, from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá, even though extreme waves are lower than in the previous regions, extreme waves are dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from that in the continental area due to its geographic location. The wave heights in the extreme regime are

  20. Response of the low-latitude D region ionosphere to extreme space weather event of 14-16 December 2006

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Sushil; Kumar, Abhikesh; Menk, Frederick; Maurya, Ajeet K.; Singh, Rajesh; Veenadhari, B.

    2015-01-01

    response of the D region low-latitude ionosphere has been examined for extreme space weather event of 14-16 December 2006 associated with a X1.5 solar flare and an intense geomagnetic storm (Dst = -146 nT) using VLF signals from Northwest Cape, Australia (NWC) (19.8 kHz) and Lualualei, Hawaii (callsign NPM) (21.4 kHz) transmitters monitored at Suva (Geographic Coordinates, 18.10°S, 178.40°E), Fiji. Modeling of flare associated amplitude and phase enhancements of NWC (3.6 dB, 223°) and NPM (5 dB, 153°) using Long-Wave Propagation Capability code shows reduction in the D region reflection height (H') by 11.1 km and 9.4 km, and enhancement in ionization gradients described by increases in the exponential sharpness factor (β) by 0.122 and 0.126 km-1, for the NWC and NPM paths, respectively. During the storm the daytime signal strengths of the NWC and NPM signals were reduced by 3.2 dB on 15 and 16 December (for about 46 h) and recovered by 17 December. Modeling for the NWC path shows that storm time values of H' and β were reduced by 1.2 km and 0.06 km-1, respectively. Morlet wavelet analysis of signal amplitudes shows no clearly strong signatures of gravity wave propagation to low latitudes during the main and recovery phases. The reduction in VLF signal strength is due to increased signal attenuation and absorption by the Earth-ionosphere waveguide due to storm-induced D region ionization changes and hence changes in D region parameters. The long duration of the storm effect results from the slow diffusion of changed composition/ionization at D region altitudes compared with higher altitudes in the ionosphere.

  1. Extremely low frequency pulsed electromagnetic field designed for antinociception does not affect microvascular responsiveness to the vasodilator acetylcholine.

    PubMed

    McKay, Julia C; Corbacio, Michael; Tyml, Karel; Prato, Frank S; Thomas, Alex W

    2010-01-01

    A 225 microT, extremely low frequency, pulsed electromagnetic field (PEMF) that was designed for the induction of antinociception, was tested for its effectiveness to influence blood flow within the skeletal microvasculature of a male Sprague-Dawley rat model (n = 103). Acetylcholine (0.1, 1.0, or 10 mM) was used to perturb normal blood flow and to delineate differential effects of the PEMF, based on degree of vessel dilation. After both 30 and 60 min of PEMF exposure, we report no effects on peak perfusion response to acetylcholine (with only 0.2% of the group difference attributed to exposure). Spectral analysis of blood flow data was generated to obtain information related to myogenic activity (0.15-0.40 Hz), respiratory rate (0.4-2.0 Hz), and heart rate (2.0-7.0 Hz), including the peak frequency within each of the three frequency regions identified above, peak power, full width at half maximum (FWHM), and mean within band. No significant effects due to exposure were observed on myogenic activity of examined blood vessels, or on heart rate parameters. Anesthesia-induced respiratory depression was, however, significantly reduced following PEMF exposure compared to shams (although exposure only accounted for 9.4% of the group difference). This set of data suggest that there are no significant acute physiological effects of 225 microT PEMF after 30 and 60 min of exposure on peak blood flow, heart rate, and myogenic activity, but perhaps a small attenuation effect on anesthetic-induced respiratory depression. PMID:19644977

  2. Extreme drought events in Mediterranean forests: phenological response as a preemptive mechanisms for water and nitrogen conservation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Misson, Laurent; Rambal, Serge; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Rocheteau, Alain; Rodriguez, Raquel; Collin, Christian; Degueldre, David; Letts, Matthew

    2010-05-01

    Global climate change is expected to result in more frequent and intense droughts in the Mediterranean region. To understand forest response to severe drought at different periods of the year, we used a mobile rainfall shelter to examine the impact of spring and autumn rainfall exclusion on phenology and photosynthesis in a holm oak (Quercus ilex) ecosystem. Leaf, female flower, fruit development and maturation were highly affected by the spring rainfall exclusion treatment because predawn leaf water potential started to decrease at the same time actual leaf and female flower were appearing. Half of the sampled trees did not show signs of bud burst and new leaf development. The spring exclusion treatment had much less effects on male flower, probably because they follow an earlier development than leaf and female flower and in consequence, they avoided the decrease in water potential. Spring rainfall exclusion, carried out during increasing atmospheric demand and leaf development, had a larger impact on photosynthesis than autumn exclusion, conducted at a time of mature foliage and decreasing vapour pressure deficit. The relative importance of NSL increased with drought intensity, including balanced reductions in assimilation due to mesophyll conductance (MCL) and biochemical processes (BL). Stomatal closure quickly limited net photosynthesis (An) under mild drought stress. Effects of SL and NSL were equal once total limitation (TL) reached 60%, with 15% contributions from both MCL and BL. Non-stomatal limitation greatly exceeded SL during severe drought, with 76% NSL partitioned equally between MCL and BL when TL reached 100%. Maximum carboxylation rate (Vcmax) and An decreased by more than 70% by midsummer, in response to lower predawn water potential (φp). The relationship between φp and NSL was steeper than for SL, and the impact of BL was strong at low φp during spring exclusion. Leaf lifespan increased with spring exclusion and some trees did not produce

  3. Response of the extremely halophilic Halococcus dombrowskii strain H4 to UV radiation and space conditions in the EXPOSE -ADAPT project on the International Space Station

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fendrihan, Sergiu; Grosbacher, Michael; Stan-Lotter, Helga

    2010-05-01

    The international project ADAPT focuses on the response of different microorganisms to outer space conditions. In 2007, the European Space Agency (ESA) has installed the Columbus laboratory and the exposure facility EXPOSE-E on the International Space Station (ISS). One of the microorganisms that were exposed for 18 months on the ISS is Halococcus dombrowskii strain H4, an extremely halophilic archaeon which was isolated from about 250 million years old alpine salt deposits (1). Ground experiments with Hcc. dombrowskii included irradiation with different wavelengths and doses of UV, using a Hg low pressure lamp, a solar simulator SOL2 (both at the DLR, Cologne) and a Mars UV simulation lamp (2). Cells were embedded in halite crystals which were formed on quartz discs by evaporation of high salt buffers. Methods for analyzing the effects of exposure on Hcc. dombrowskii include the estimation of colony forming units (CFUs), staining for viability with the BacLight LIVE/DEAD kit (2), establishing long term liquid cultures and determination of the formation of cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers (CPDs) with specific antibodies (3). Counting of viable (green) and dead (red) cells showed an apparent preservation of viability following exposure to about 21 kJ/m2 in ground experiments, but the calculated D37 (dose of 37 % survival) for Hcc. dombrowskii was about 400 kJ/m2 in salt crystals (2). CPDs were detected in about 6-8% of cells of Hcc. dombrowskii following exposure to a dose of 3000 kJ/m2 (200-400 nm). Preliminary results with the samples of Hcc. dombrowskii from the ISS suggested preservation of cellular morphology and stainability with the fluorescent dyes of the LIVE/DEAD kit, as well as formation of CPDs in about 2-3 % of the cells. The determination of the survival of cells by measuring proliferation requires months of incubation; data can be expected in May or June 2010. (1) Stan-Lotter H, Pfaffenhuemer M, Legat A, Busse H-J, Radax C, Gruber C (2002) Halococcus

  4. An NCME Instructional Module on Estimating Item Response Theory Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Jee-Seon; Bolt, Daniel M.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this ITEMS module is to provide an introduction to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation for item response models. A brief description of Bayesian inference is followed by an overview of the various facets of MCMC algorithms, including discussion of prior specification, sampling procedures, and methods for evaluating chain…

  5. Two Prophecy Formulas for Assessing the Reliability of Item Response Theory-Based Ability Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Raju, Nambury S.; Oshima, T.C.

    2005-01-01

    Two new prophecy formulas for estimating item response theory (IRT)-based reliability of a shortened or lengthened test are proposed. Some of the relationships between the two formulas, one of which is identical to the well-known Spearman-Brown prophecy formula, are examined and illustrated. The major assumptions underlying these formulas are…

  6. Semiparametric Estimation of Treatment Effect with Time-Lagged Response in the Presence of Informative Censoring

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Xiaomin; Tsiatis, Anastasios A.

    2011-01-01

    In many randomized clinical trials, the primary response variable, for example, the survival time, is not observed directly after the patients enroll in the study but rather observed after some period of time (lag time). It is often the case that such a response variable is missing for some patients due to censoring that occurs when the study ends before the patient’s response is observed or when the patients drop out of the study. It is often assumed that censoring occurs at random which is referred to as noninformative censoring; however, in many cases such an assumption may not be reasonable. If the missing data are not analyzed properly, the estimator or test for the treatment effect may be biased. In this paper, we use semiparametric theory to derive a class of consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for the treatment effect parameter which are applicable when the response variable is right censored. The baseline auxiliary covariates and post-treatment auxiliary covariates, which may be time-dependent, are also considered in our semiparametric model. These auxiliary covariates are used to derive estimators that both account for informative censoring and are more efficient then the estimators which do not consider the auxiliary covariates. PMID:21706378

  7. Semiparametric estimation of treatment effect with time-lagged response in the presence of informative censoring.

    PubMed

    Lu, Xiaomin; Tsiatis, Anastasios A

    2011-10-01

    In many randomized clinical trials, the primary response variable, for example, the survival time, is not observed directly after the patients enroll in the study but rather observed after some period of time (lag time). It is often the case that such a response variable is missing for some patients due to censoring that occurs when the study ends before the patient's response is observed or when the patients drop out of the study. It is often assumed that censoring occurs at random which is referred to as noninformative censoring; however, in many cases such an assumption may not be reasonable. If the missing data are not analyzed properly, the estimator or test for the treatment effect may be biased. In this paper, we use semiparametric theory to derive a class of consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for the treatment effect parameter which are applicable when the response variable is right censored. The baseline auxiliary covariates and post-treatment auxiliary covariates, which may be time-dependent, are also considered in our semiparametric model. These auxiliary covariates are used to derive estimators that both account for informative censoring and are more efficient then the estimators which do not consider the auxiliary covariates. PMID:21706378

  8. Comparison of total body water estimates from O-18 and bioelectrical response prediction equations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrows, Linda H.; Inners, L. Daniel; Stricklin, Marcella D.; Klein, Peter D.; Wong, William W.; Siconolfi, Steven F.

    1993-01-01

    Identification of an indirect, rapid means to measure total body water (TBW) during space flight may aid in quantifying hydration status and assist in countermeasure development. Bioelectrical response testing and hydrostatic weighing were performed on 27 subjects who ingested O-18, a naturally occurring isotope of oxygen, to measure true TBW. TBW estimates from three bioelectrical response prediction equations and fat-free mass (FFM) were compared to TBW measured from O-18. A repeated measures MANOVA with post-hoc Dunnett's Test indicated a significant (p less than 0.05) difference between TBW estimates from two of the three bioelectrical response prediction equations and O-18. TBW estimates from FFM and the Kushner & Schoeller (1986) equation yielded results that were similar to those given by O-18. Strong correlations existed between each prediction method and O-18; however, standard errors, identified through regression analyses, were higher for the bioelectrical response prediction equations compared to those derived from FFM. These findings suggest (1) the Kushner & Schoeller (1986) equation may provide a valid measure of TBW, (2) other TBW prediction equations need to be identified that have variability similar to that of FFM, and (3) bioelectrical estimates of TBW may prove valuable in quantifying hydration status during space flight.

  9. Using the Randomized Response Technique to Estimate the Extent of Delinquent Behavior in Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gottfredson, Gary D.

    The Randomized Response Technique (RRT) appears to have promise in future work which studies the relation of school variables to disruption or delinquent behavior. The RRT is especially useful in situations when it is difficult or undesirable directly to ask stigmatizing questions. The proportions of students in this study estimated to have used…

  10. Near-Miss Effects on Response Latencies and Win Estimations of Slot Machine Players

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dixon, Mark R.; Schreiber, James E.

    2004-01-01

    The present study examined the degree to which slot machine near-miss trials, or trials that displayed 2 of 3 winning symbols on the payoff line, affected response times and win estimations of 12 recreational slot machine players. Participants played a commercial slot machine in a casino-like laboratory for course extra-credit points. Videotaped…

  11. Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change.

    PubMed

    Bokhorst, Stef; Phoenix, Gareth K; Berg, Matty P; Callaghan, Terry V; Kirby-Lambert, Christopher; Bjerke, Jarle W

    2015-11-01

    Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub-Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro-arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro-arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO2 fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub-Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer warming may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub-Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single-factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may

  12. Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change.

    PubMed

    Bokhorst, Stef; Phoenix, Gareth K; Berg, Matty P; Callaghan, Terry V; Kirby-Lambert, Christopher; Bjerke, Jarle W

    2015-11-01

    Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub-Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro-arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro-arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO2 fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub-Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer warming may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub-Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single-factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may

  13. Summary of Methods for Calculating Dynamic Lateral Stability and Response and for Estimating Lateral Stability Derivatives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Campbell, John P; Mckinney, Marion O

    1951-01-01

    A summary of methods for making dynamic lateral stability and response calculations and for estimating the aerodynamic stability derivatives required for use in these calculations is presented. The processes of performing calculations of the time histories of lateral motions, of the period and damping of these motions, and of the lateral stability boundaries are presented as a series of simple straightforward steps. Existing methods for estimating the stability derivatives are summarized and, in some cases, simple new empirical formulas are presented. Reference is also made to reports presenting experimental data that should be useful in making estimates of the derivatives. Detailed estimating methods are presented for low-subsonic-speed conditions but only a brief discussion and a list of references are given for transonic- and supersonic-speed conditions.

  14. The generation of shared cryptographic keys through channel impulse response estimation at 60 GHz.

    SciTech Connect

    Young, Derek P.; Forman, Michael A.; Dowdle, Donald Ryan

    2010-09-01

    Methods to generate private keys based on wireless channel characteristics have been proposed as an alternative to standard key-management schemes. In this work, we discuss past work in the field and offer a generalized scheme for the generation of private keys using uncorrelated channels in multiple domains. Proposed cognitive enhancements measure channel characteristics, to dynamically change transmission and reception parameters as well as estimate private key randomness and expiration times. Finally, results are presented on the implementation of a system for the generation of private keys for cryptographic communications using channel impulse-response estimation at 60 GHz. The testbed is composed of commercial millimeter-wave VubIQ transceivers, laboratory equipment, and software implemented in MATLAB. Novel cognitive enhancements are demonstrated, using channel estimation to dynamically change system parameters and estimate cryptographic key strength. We show for a complex channel that secret key generation can be accomplished on the order of 100 kb/s.

  15. Graph-based variability estimation in single-trial event-related neural responses.

    PubMed

    Gramfort, Alexandre; Keriven, Renaud; Clerc, Maureen

    2010-05-01

    Extracting information from multitrial magnetoencephalography or electroencephalography (EEG) recordings is challenging because of the very low SNR, and because of the inherent variability of brain responses. The problem of low SNR is commonly tackled by averaging multiple repetitions of the recordings, also called trials, but the variability of response across trials leads to biased results and limits interpretability. This paper proposes to decode the variability of neural responses by making use of graph representations. Our approach has several advantages compared to other existing methods that process single-trial data: first, it avoids the a priori definition of a model for the waveform of the neural response; second, it does not make use of the average data for parameter estimation; third, it does not suffer from initialization problems by providing solutions that are global optimum of cost functions; and last, it is fast. We proceed in two steps. First, a manifold learning algorithm, based on a graph Laplacian, offers an efficient way of ordering trials with respect to the response variability, under the condition that this variability itself depends on a single parameter. Second, the estimation of the variability is formulated as a combinatorial optimization that can be solved very efficiently using graph cuts. Details and validation of this second step are provided for latency estimation. Performance and robustness experiments are conducted on synthetic data, and results are presented on EEG data from a P300 oddball experiment. PMID:20142163

  16. Estimation of a transient response from steady-state responses by deconvolution with built-in constraints.

    PubMed

    Lütkenhöner, Bernd

    2016-09-01

    Evidence suggests that the steady-state response (SSR) elicited by a periodic train of auditory stimuli can largely be understood as a superposition of transient responses. This study is devoted to the problem of how to estimate that transient response from measured SSRs. The proposed method differs from previous approaches in that the solution can be constrained to be consistent with physiology-based prior knowledge or educated guesses. To achieve this goal, the transient response is not represented by a time series, but by a linear combination of auxiliary functions, called components. Constraints are introduced by assigning certain properties to the components. Only few parameters are required for that purpose, because the individual components are derived from a suitably designed mother component. After adjusting the components to the problem at hand, the component amplitudes are determined by optimizing the match between predicted and measured SSRs. This requires solving a linear inverse problem. A model simulation as well as an analysis of exemplary experimental data (auditory SSRs elicited by periodically presented clicks) prove the workability of the method. Since part of the theory is quite general, it would be relatively easy to refine and extend the method. Not only could responses other than SSRs be dealt with, it could also be realized that certain key parameters of the transient response, such as amplitude and delay, depend on stimulus repetition rate.

  17. Estimation of a transient response from steady-state responses by deconvolution with built-in constraints.

    PubMed

    Lütkenhöner, Bernd

    2016-09-01

    Evidence suggests that the steady-state response (SSR) elicited by a periodic train of auditory stimuli can largely be understood as a superposition of transient responses. This study is devoted to the problem of how to estimate that transient response from measured SSRs. The proposed method differs from previous approaches in that the solution can be constrained to be consistent with physiology-based prior knowledge or educated guesses. To achieve this goal, the transient response is not represented by a time series, but by a linear combination of auxiliary functions, called components. Constraints are introduced by assigning certain properties to the components. Only few parameters are required for that purpose, because the individual components are derived from a suitably designed mother component. After adjusting the components to the problem at hand, the component amplitudes are determined by optimizing the match between predicted and measured SSRs. This requires solving a linear inverse problem. A model simulation as well as an analysis of exemplary experimental data (auditory SSRs elicited by periodically presented clicks) prove the workability of the method. Since part of the theory is quite general, it would be relatively easy to refine and extend the method. Not only could responses other than SSRs be dealt with, it could also be realized that certain key parameters of the transient response, such as amplitude and delay, depend on stimulus repetition rate. PMID:27234643

  18. A Methodology for Estimating Large-Customer Demand Response MarketPotential

    SciTech Connect

    Goldman, Charles; Hopper, Nicole; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan,Bernie; Cappers,Peter

    2007-08-01

    Demand response (DR) is increasingly recognized as an essential ingredient to well-functioning electricity markets. DR market potential studies can answer questions about the amount of DR available in a given area and from which market segments. Several recent DR market potential studies have been conducted, most adapting techniques used to estimate energy-efficiency (EE) potential. In this scoping study, we: reviewed and categorized seven recent DR market potential studies; recommended a methodology for estimating DR market potential for large, non-residential utility customers that uses price elasticities to account for behavior and prices; compiled participation rates and elasticity values from six DR options offered to large customers in recent years, and demonstrated our recommended methodology with large customer market potential scenarios at an illustrative Northeastern utility. We observe that EE and DR have several important differences that argue for an elasticity approach for large-customer DR options that rely on customer-initiated response to prices, rather than the engineering approaches typical of EE potential studies. Base-case estimates suggest that offering DR options to large, non-residential customers results in 1-3% reductions in their class peak demand in response to prices or incentive payments of $500/MWh. Participation rates (i.e., enrollment in voluntary DR programs or acceptance of default hourly pricing) have the greatest influence on DR impacts of all factors studied, yet are the least well understood. Elasticity refinements to reflect the impact of enabling technologies and response at high prices provide more accurate market potential estimates, particularly when arc elasticities (rather than substitution elasticities) are estimated.

  19. Estimating synaptic parameters from mean, variance, and covariance in trains of synaptic responses.

    PubMed Central

    Scheuss, V; Neher, E

    2001-01-01

    Fluctuation analysis of synaptic transmission using the variance-mean approach has been restricted in the past to steady-state responses. Here we extend this method to short repetitive trains of synaptic responses, during which the response amplitudes are not stationary. We consider intervals between trains, long enough so that the system is in the same average state at the beginning of each train. This allows analysis of ensemble means and variances for each response in a train separately. Thus, modifications in synaptic efficacy during short-term plasticity can be attributed to changes in synaptic parameters. In addition, we provide practical guidelines for the analysis of the covariance between successive responses in trains. Explicit algorithms to estimate synaptic parameters are derived and tested by Monte Carlo simulations on the basis of a binomial model of synaptic transmission, allowing for quantal variability, heterogeneity in the release probability, and postsynaptic receptor saturation and desensitization. We find that the combined analysis of variance and covariance is advantageous in yielding an estimate for the number of release sites, which is independent of heterogeneity in the release probability under certain conditions. Furthermore, it allows one to calculate the apparent quantal size for each response in a sequence of stimuli. PMID:11566771

  20. Storms or cold fronts: what is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coastal region?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

    2016-02-01

    The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms to extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean in an attempt to determine the extent of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed. Furthermore, the study wishes to establish the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the height of the wave. For this reason, it is necessary to establish the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. The significant height values for the areas focused on in the study were calculated in accordance with Gumbel's extreme value methodology. The methodology was evaluated using data from the reanalysis of the spectral National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WAVEWATCH III® (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombian Caribbean coastline (continental and insular) between the years 1979 and 2009. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and those caused by cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area (consisting of Baja Guajira, and the cities of Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena), the strong impact of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. However, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast (ranging from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá), the extreme values of wave heights are lower than in the previously mentioned regions, despite being dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from

  1. Identification of physiological systems: a robust method for non-parametric impulse response estimation.

    PubMed

    Westwick, D T; Kearney, R E

    1997-03-01

    The identification of non-parametric impulse response functions (IRFs) from noisy finite-length data records is analysed using the techniques of matrix perturbation theory. Based on these findings, a method for IRF estimation is developed that is more robust than existing techniques, particularly when the input is non-white. Furthermore, methods are developed for computing confidence bounds on the resulting IRF estimates. Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the capabilities of this new method and to demonstrate its superiority over classical techniques. An application to the identification of dynamic ankle stiffness in humans is presented. PMID:9136198

  2. Estimation of Supersonic Stage Separation Aerodynamics of Winged-Body Launch Vehicles Using Response Surface Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Erickson, Gary E.

    2010-01-01

    Response surface methodology was used to estimate the longitudinal stage separation aerodynamic characteristics of a generic, bimese, winged multi-stage launch vehicle configuration at supersonic speeds in the NASA LaRC Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The Mach 3 staging was dominated by shock wave interactions between the orbiter and booster vehicles throughout the relative spatial locations of interest. The inference space was partitioned into several contiguous regions within which the separation aerodynamics were presumed to be well-behaved and estimable using central composite designs capable of fitting full second-order response functions. The underlying aerodynamic response surfaces of the booster vehicle in belly-to-belly proximity to the orbiter vehicle were estimated using piecewise-continuous lower-order polynomial functions. The quality of fit and prediction capabilities of the empirical models were assessed in detail, and the issue of subspace boundary discontinuities was addressed. Augmenting the central composite designs to full third-order using computer-generated D-optimality criteria was evaluated. The usefulness of central composite designs, the subspace sizing, and the practicality of fitting lower-order response functions over a partitioned inference space dominated by highly nonlinear and possibly discontinuous shock-induced aerodynamics are discussed.

  3. Estimation of the auto frequency response function at unexcited points using dummy masses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosoya, Naoki; Yaginuma, Shinji; Onodera, Hiroshi; Yoshimura, Takuya

    2015-02-01

    If structures with complex shapes have space limitations, vibration tests using an exciter or impact hammer for the excitation are difficult. Although measuring the auto frequency response function at an unexcited point may not be practical via a vibration test, it can be obtained by assuming that the inertia acting on a dummy mass is an external force on the target structure upon exciting a different excitation point. We propose a method to estimate the auto frequency response functions at unexcited points by attaching a small mass (dummy mass), which is comparable to the accelerometer mass. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparing the auto frequency response functions estimated at unexcited points in a beam structure to those obtained from numerical simulations. We also consider random measurement errors by finite element analysis and vibration tests, but not bias errors. Additionally, the applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated by applying it to estimate the auto frequency response function of the lower arm in a car suspension.

  4. Added mass matrix estimation of beams partially immersed in water using measured dynamic responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Fushun; Li, Huajun; Qin, Hongde; Liang, Bingchen

    2014-09-01

    An added mass matrix estimation method for beams partially immersed in water is proposed that employs dynamic responses, which are measured when the structure is in water and in air. Discrepancies such as mass and stiffness matrices between the finite element model (FEM) and real structure could be separated from the added mass of water by a series of correction factors, which means that the mass and stiffness of the FEM and the added mass of water could be estimated simultaneously. Compared with traditional methods, the estimated added mass correction factors of our approach will not be limited to be constant when FEM or the environment of the structure changed, meaning that the proposed method could reflect the influence of changes such as water depth, current, and so on. The greatest improvement is that the proposed method could estimate added mass of water without involving any water-related assumptions because all water influences are reflected in measured dynamic responses of the structure in water. A five degrees-of-freedom (dofs) mass-spring system is used to study the performance of the proposed scheme. The numerical results indicate that mass, stiffness, and added mass correction factors could be estimated accurately when noise-free measurements are used. Even when the first two modes are measured under the 5 percent corruption level, the added mass could be estimated properly. A steel cantilever beam with a rectangular section in a water tank at Ocean University of China was also employed to study the added mass influence on modal parameter identification and to investigate the performance of the proposed method. The experimental results demonstrated that the first two modal frequencies and mode shapes of the updated model match well with the measured values by combining the estimated added mass in the initial FEM.

  5. Estimating and coping with public response to radioactive waste repository siting

    SciTech Connect

    Payne, B.A.

    1984-02-07

    The siting and construction of a radioactive waste disposal operation is likely to be controversial in the communities being considered, and at the state and national levels as well. Public response can be conceptualized at two levels: individual, and group or organizational. At the individual level, public response is the behavior of people motivated by their attitudes, knowledge, and perceptions of radioactive waste and its hazards and risks. On the group or organizational level, public response is the organized activity of individuals. Organizations provide the ability to pool resources and talents, set up a division of labor, hire experts, develop a skilled leadership, take legal action, and so on. A broad range of organizations is possible: ad hoc, existing community groups with an added purpose, nationally-recognized organizations, or government offices and agencies. Two cases of response to radioactive waste disposal sites illustrate these sources and kinds of response and lead to indicators to estimate the nature and level of response. Finally, drawing from the theoretical discussion of the sources and levels of public response, on the estimation techniques, and on the examples, specific coping strategies are developed. These strategies take different forms, based on the nature and level of response (either supporting or opposing) to the proposed siting, and the past experience of the community members with similar projects, with other federal requirements, and with citizens' action groups, as well as sources and accuracy of information individuals and groups have. However, all strategies are based on a policy of honesty and straight-forwardness, with a sincere effort on the part of site evaluators and decision-makers to be attentive and responsive to the public's concerns. 10 references.

  6. Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowland, L.; Harper, A.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Galbraith, D. R.; Imbuzeiro, H. M. A.; Powell, T. L.; Doughty, C.; Levine, N. M.; Malhi, Y.; Saleska, S. R.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Meir, P.; Williams, M.

    2015-04-01

    that even up to fairly extreme temperature increases from ambient levels (+6 °C), simulated photosynthesis becomes increasingly sensitive to gs and remains less sensitive to biochemical changes. To improve the reliability of simulations of the response of Amazonian rainforest to climate change, the mechanistic underpinnings of vegetation models need to be validated at both leaf- and canopy-scales to improve accuracy and consistency in the quantification of processes within and across an ecosystem.

  7. Extreme coastal storms along the north coast of Ireland: hydrodynamic forcing and beach response during the winter seasons of 2013/14 and 2014/15

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loureiro, Carlos; Marianne, O'Connor; Guisado-Pintado, Emilia; Jackson, Derek; Cooper, Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The increase in storminess (frequency, duration and magnitude) and the occurrence of extreme coastal storms partly associated with climate change, represent pressing concerns for coastal communities in many regions globally. The Atlantic seaboard of Europe has recently experienced record-breaking winter seasons, particularly in Ireland and the UK, where the 2013/14 winter was characterised as the stormiest on record according to measured levels of total precipitation, extreme wind speeds, and particularly the frequency and intensity of cyclone activity. The enhanced cyclone activity during 2013/14 has resulted in unprecedented sequences of extreme water levels and energetic waves and gave rise to widespread coastal erosion and flooding, setting new benchmarks for coastal analysis and offered a glimpse of future storm impact scenarios. A regional analysis of hydrodynamic forcing along the north coast of Ireland over the last two extended winter seasons (October to March) has revealed that, although 2013/14 was indeed characterised by an exceptional frequency and intensity of coastal storms, the 2014/15 extended winter was significantly stormier. Not only was the number of individual storm events higher, but also the duration and intensity was greater, including record values of offshore significant wave height. The geomorphic response along the sandy coastal stretches of the north coast of Ireland, evaluated from morphological change at a diverse group of beach sites, revealed considerable differences in beach erosion and actual shoreline response. Variability in beach changes during these two extreme winter seasons is attributed to a variety of factors. These include localised coastal orientation relative to particular storm tracks, the embayed and highly compartmentalised setting of most of the beaches, as well as site-specific morphodynamic mechanisms such as large rip-current cells forcing the onset and/or reactivation of erosional hotspots. Such heterogeneous

  8. Placental oxygen transport estimated by the hyperoxic placental BOLD MRI response.

    PubMed

    Sørensen, Anne; Sinding, Marianne; Peters, David A; Petersen, Astrid; Frøkjær, Jens B; Christiansen, Ole B; Uldbjerg, Niels

    2015-10-01

    Estimating placental oxygen transport capacity is highly desirable, as impaired placental function is associated with fetal growth restriction (FGR) and poor neonatal outcome. In clinical obstetrics, a noninvasive method to estimate the placental oxygen transport is not available, and the current methods focus on fetal well-being rather than on direct assessment of placental function. In this article, we aim to estimate the placental oxygen transport using the hyperoxic placental blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) response. In 21 normal pregnancies and in four cases of severe early onset FGR, placental BOLD MRI was performed in a 1.5 Tesla MRI system (TR:8000 msec, TE:50 msec, Flip angle:90). Placental histological examination was performed in the FGR cases. In normal pregnancies, the average hyperoxic placental BOLD response was 12.6 ± 5.4% (mean ± SD). In the FGR cases, the hyperoxic BOLD response was abnormal only in cases with histological signs of maternal hypoperfusion of the placenta. The hyperoxic placental BOLD response is mainly derived from an increase in the saturation of maternal venous blood. In the normal placenta, the pO2 of the umbilical vein is closely related to the pO2 of the uterine vein. Therefore, the hyperoxic placental BOLD response may reflect the placental oxygen supply to the fetus. In early onset FGR, the placental oxygen transport is reduced mainly because of the maternal hypoperfusion, and in these cases the placental BOLD response might be altered. Thus, the placental BOLD MRI might provide direct noninvasive assessment of placental oxygen transport. PMID:26471757

  9. Placental oxygen transport estimated by the hyperoxic placental BOLD MRI response.

    PubMed

    Sørensen, Anne; Sinding, Marianne; Peters, David A; Petersen, Astrid; Frøkjær, Jens B; Christiansen, Ole B; Uldbjerg, Niels

    2015-10-01

    Estimating placental oxygen transport capacity is highly desirable, as impaired placental function is associated with fetal growth restriction (FGR) and poor neonatal outcome. In clinical obstetrics, a noninvasive method to estimate the placental oxygen transport is not available, and the current methods focus on fetal well-being rather than on direct assessment of placental function. In this article, we aim to estimate the placental oxygen transport using the hyperoxic placental blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) response. In 21 normal pregnancies and in four cases of severe early onset FGR, placental BOLD MRI was performed in a 1.5 Tesla MRI system (TR:8000 msec, TE:50 msec, Flip angle:90). Placental histological examination was performed in the FGR cases. In normal pregnancies, the average hyperoxic placental BOLD response was 12.6 ± 5.4% (mean ± SD). In the FGR cases, the hyperoxic BOLD response was abnormal only in cases with histological signs of maternal hypoperfusion of the placenta. The hyperoxic placental BOLD response is mainly derived from an increase in the saturation of maternal venous blood. In the normal placenta, the pO2 of the umbilical vein is closely related to the pO2 of the uterine vein. Therefore, the hyperoxic placental BOLD response may reflect the placental oxygen supply to the fetus. In early onset FGR, the placental oxygen transport is reduced mainly because of the maternal hypoperfusion, and in these cases the placental BOLD response might be altered. Thus, the placental BOLD MRI might provide direct noninvasive assessment of placental oxygen transport.

  10. Placental oxygen transport estimated by the hyperoxic placental BOLD MRI response

    PubMed Central

    Sørensen, Anne; Sinding, Marianne; Peters, David A; Petersen, Astrid; Frøkjær, Jens B; Christiansen, Ole B; Uldbjerg, Niels

    2015-01-01

    Estimating placental oxygen transport capacity is highly desirable, as impaired placental function is associated with fetal growth restriction (FGR) and poor neonatal outcome. In clinical obstetrics, a noninvasive method to estimate the placental oxygen transport is not available, and the current methods focus on fetal well-being rather than on direct assessment of placental function. In this article, we aim to estimate the placental oxygen transport using the hyperoxic placental blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) response. In 21 normal pregnancies and in four cases of severe early onset FGR, placental BOLD MRI was performed in a 1.5 Tesla MRI system (TR:8000 msec, TE:50 msec, Flip angle:90). Placental histological examination was performed in the FGR cases. In normal pregnancies, the average hyperoxic placental BOLD response was 12.6 ± 5.4% (mean ± SD). In the FGR cases, the hyperoxic BOLD response was abnormal only in cases with histological signs of maternal hypoperfusion of the placenta. The hyperoxic placental BOLD response is mainly derived from an increase in the saturation of maternal venous blood. In the normal placenta, the pO2 of the umbilical vein is closely related to the pO2 of the uterine vein. Therefore, the hyperoxic placental BOLD response may reflect the placental oxygen supply to the fetus. In early onset FGR, the placental oxygen transport is reduced mainly because of the maternal hypoperfusion, and in these cases the placental BOLD response might be altered. Thus, the placental BOLD MRI might provide direct noninvasive assessment of placental oxygen transport. PMID:26471757

  11. Estimating Cosmic-Ray Spectral Parameters from Simulated Detector Responses with Detector Design Implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howell, L. W.

    2001-04-01

    A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index (alpha-1) is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 1013 eV, with a transition at knee energy (Ek) to a steeper spectral index alpha-2 > alpha-1 above Ek. The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic-ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

  12. Impulse Response Estimation for Spatial Resolution Enhancement in Ultrasonic NDE Imaging

    SciTech Connect

    Clark, G A

    2004-06-25

    This report describes a signal processing algorithm and MATLAB software for improving spatial resolution in ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation (NDE) imaging of materials. Given a measured reflection signal and an associated reference signal, the algorithm produces an optimal least-squares estimate of the impulse response of the material under test. This estimated impulse response, when used in place of the raw reflection signal, enhances the spatial resolution of the ultrasonic measurements by removing distortion caused by the limited-bandwidth transducers and the materials under test. The theory behind the processing algorithms is briefly presented, while the reader is referred to the bibliography for details. The main focus of the report is to describe how to use the MATLAB software. Two processing examples using actual ultrasonic measurements are provided for tutorial purposes.

  13. Inverse combustion force estimation based on response measurements outside the combustion chamber and signal processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosseini Fouladi, Mohammad; Mohd. Nor, Mohd. Jailani; Kamal Ariffin, Ahmad; Abdullah, Shahrir

    2009-11-01

    Exposure to vibration has various physiological effects on vehicle passengers. Engine is one of the main sources of vehicle vibration. The major causes of engine vibration are combustion forces transmitted through the pistons and connection rods. Evaluation of sources is the first step to attenuate this vibration. Assessment of these sources is not an easy task because internal parts of machinery are not accessible. Often, instrumentation for such systems is costly, time consuming and some modifications would be necessary. Aim of the first part of this paper was to validate an inverse technique and carry out mobility analysis on a vehicle crankshaft to achieve matrix of Frequency Response Functions (FRFs). Outcomes were implemented to reconstruct the applied force for single and multiple-input systems. In the second part, the validated inverse technique and FRFs were used to estimate piston forces of an operating engine. Bearings of crankshaft were chosen as nearest accessible parts to piston connecting rods. Accelerometers were connected to the bearings for response measurement during an ideal engine operation. These responses together with FRFs, which were estimated in the previous part, were utilised in the inverse technique. Tikhonov regularization was used to solve the ill-conditioned inverse system. Two methods, namely L-curve criterion and Generalized Cross Validation (GCV), were employed to find the regularization parameter for the Tikhonov method. The inverse problem was solved and piston forces applied to crankpins were estimated. Results were validated by pressure measurement inside a cylinder and estimating the corresponding combustion force. This validation showed that inverse technique and measurement outcomes were roughly in agreement. In presence of various noise, L-curve criterion conduces to more robust results compared to the GCV method. But in the absence of high correlation between sources ( f>600 HzHz), the GCV technique leads to more accurate

  14. Modifiers of exposure--response estimates for lung cancer among miners exposed to radon progeny

    SciTech Connect

    Hornung, R.W.; Deddens, J.; Roscoe, R.

    1995-03-01

    The association between lung cancer and exposure to radon decay products has been well established. Despite agreement on this point, there is still some degree of uncertainty regarding characteristics of the exposure-response relationship. The use of studies of underground miners to estimate lung cancer risks due to residential radon exposure depends upon a better understanding of factors potentially modifying the exposure-response relationship. Given the diversity in study populations regarding smoking status, mining conditions, risk analysis methodology, and referent populations, the risk estimates across studies are quite similar. However, several factors partially contributing to differences in risk estimates are modified by attained age, time since last exposure, exposure rate, and cigarette smoking patterns. There is growing agreement across studies that relative risk decreases with attained age and time since last exposure. Several studies have also found an inverse exposure-rate effect, i.e., low exposure rates for protracted duration of exposure are more hazardous than equivalent cumulative exposures received at higher rates for shorter periods of time. Additionally, the interaction between radon exposure and cigarette smoking appears to be intermediate between additive and multiplicative in a growing number of studies. Quantitative estimates of these modifying factors are given using a new analysis of data from the latest update of the Colorado Plateau uranium miners cohort. 24 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs.

  15. Mathematical model of cycad cones' thermogenic temperature responses: inverse calorimetry to estimate metabolic heating rates.

    PubMed

    Roemer, R B; Booth, D; Bhavsar, A A; Walter, G H; Terry, L I

    2012-12-21

    A mathematical model based on conservation of energy has been developed and used to simulate the temperature responses of cones of the Australian cycads Macrozamia lucida and Macrozamia. macleayi during their daily thermogenic cycle. These cones generate diel midday thermogenic temperature increases as large as 12 °C above ambient during their approximately two week pollination period. The cone temperature response model is shown to accurately predict the cones' temperatures over multiple days as based on simulations of experimental results from 28 thermogenic events from 3 different cones, each simulated for either 9 or 10 sequential days. The verified model is then used as the foundation of a new, parameter estimation based technique (termed inverse calorimetry) that estimates the cones' daily metabolic heating rates from temperature measurements alone. The inverse calorimetry technique's predictions of the major features of the cones' thermogenic metabolism compare favorably with the estimates from conventional respirometry (indirect calorimetry). Because the new technique uses only temperature measurements, and does not require measurements of oxygen consumption, it provides a simple, inexpensive and portable complement to conventional respirometry for estimating metabolic heating rates. It thus provides an additional tool to facilitate field and laboratory investigations of the bio-physics of thermogenic plants. PMID:22995822

  16. Threshold estimation based on a p-value framework in dose-response and regression settings.

    PubMed

    Mallik, A; Sen, B; Banerjee, M; Michailidis, G

    2011-12-01

    We use p-values to identify the threshold level at which a regression function leaves its baseline value, a problem motivated by applications in toxicological and pharmacological dose-response studies and environmental statistics. We study the problem in two sampling settings: one where multiple responses can be obtained at a number of different covariate levels, and the other the standard regression setting involving limited number of response values at each covariate. Our procedure involves testing the hypothesis that the regression function is at its baseline at each covariate value and then computing the potentially approximate p-value of the test. An estimate of the threshold is obtained by fitting a piecewise constant function with a single jump discontinuity, known as a stump, to these observed p-values, as they behave in markedly different ways on the two sides of the threshold. The estimate is shown to be consistent and its finite sample properties are studied through simulations. Our approach is computationally simple and extends to the estimation of the baseline value of the regression function, heteroscedastic errors and to time series. It is illustrated on some real data applications. PMID:23049132

  17. Threshold estimation based on a p-value framework in dose-response and regression settings

    PubMed Central

    Mallik, A.; Sen, B.; Banerjee, M.; Michailidis, G.

    2011-01-01

    Summary We use p-values to identify the threshold level at which a regression function leaves its baseline value, a problem motivated by applications in toxicological and pharmacological dose-response studies and environmental statistics. We study the problem in two sampling settings: one where multiple responses can be obtained at a number of different covariate levels, and the other the standard regression setting involving limited number of response values at each covariate. Our procedure involves testing the hypothesis that the regression function is at its baseline at each covariate value and then computing the potentially approximate p-value of the test. An estimate of the threshold is obtained by fitting a piecewise constant function with a single jump discontinuity, known as a stump, to these observed p-values, as they behave in markedly different ways on the two sides of the threshold. The estimate is shown to be consistent and its finite sample properties are studied through simulations. Our approach is computationally simple and extends to the estimation of the baseline value of the regression function, heteroscedastic errors and to time series. It is illustrated on some real data applications. PMID:23049132

  18. A general method for parameter estimation in light-response models

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Lei; Li, Zhong-Bin; Hui, Cang; Cheng, Xiaofei; Li, Bai-Lian; Shi, Pei-Jian

    2016-01-01

    Selecting appropriate initial values is critical for parameter estimation in nonlinear photosynthetic light response models. Failed convergence often occurs due to wrongly selected initial values when using currently available methods, especially the kind of local optimization. There are no reliable methods that can resolve the conundrum of selecting appropriate initial values. After comparing the performance of the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm and other three algorithms for global optimization, we develop a general method for parameter estimation in four photosynthetic light response models, based on the use of Differential Evolution (DE). The new method was shown to successfully provide good fits (R2 > 0.98) and robust parameter estimates for 42 datasets collected for 21 plant species under the same initial values. It suggests that the DE algorithm can efficiently resolve the issue of hyper initial-value sensitivity when using local optimization methods. Therefore, the DE method can be applied to fit the light-response curves of various species without considering the initial values. PMID:27291688

  19. Efficient Algorithms for Estimating the Absorption Spectrum within Linear Response TDDFT

    SciTech Connect

    Brabec, Jiri; Lin, Lin; Shao, Meiyue; Govind, Niranjan; Yang, Chao; Saad, Yousef; Ng, Esmond

    2015-10-06

    We present two iterative algorithms for approximating the absorption spectrum of molecules within linear response of time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) framework. These methods do not attempt to compute eigenvalues or eigenvectors of the linear response matrix. They are designed to approximate the absorption spectrum as a function directly. They take advantage of the special structure of the linear response matrix. Neither method requires the linear response matrix to be constructed explicitly. They only require a procedure that performs the multiplication of the linear response matrix with a vector. These methods can also be easily modified to efficiently estimate the density of states (DOS) of the linear response matrix without computing the eigenvalues of this matrix. We show by computational experiments that the methods proposed in this paper can be much more efficient than methods that are based on the exact diagonalization of the linear response matrix. We show that they can also be more efficient than real-time TDDFT simulations. We compare the pros and cons of these methods in terms of their accuracy as well as their computational and storage cost.

  20. Bivariate extreme value distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elshamy, M.

    1992-01-01

    In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

  1. Impediments to predicting site response: Seismic property estimation and modeling simplifications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thompson, E.M.; Baise, L.G.; Kayen, R.E.; Guzina, B.B.

    2009-01-01

    We compare estimates of the empirical transfer function (ETF) to the plane SH-wave theoretical transfer function (TTF) within a laterally constant medium for invasive and noninvasive estimates of the seismic shear-wave slownesses at 13 Kiban-Kyoshin network stations throughout Japan. The difference between the ETF and either of the TTFs is substantially larger than the difference between the two TTFs computed from different estimates of the seismic properties. We show that the plane SH-wave TTF through a laterally homogeneous medium at vertical incidence inadequately models observed amplifications at most sites for both slowness estimates, obtained via downhole measurements and the spectral analysis of surface waves. Strategies to improve the predictions can be separated into two broad categories: improving the measurement of soil properties and improving the theory that maps the 1D soil profile onto spectral amplification. Using an example site where the 1D plane SH-wave formulation poorly predicts the ETF, we find a more satisfactory fit to the ETF by modeling the full wavefield and incorporating spatially correlated variability of the seismic properties. We conclude that our ability to model the observed site response transfer function is limited largely by the assumptions of the theoretical formulation rather than the uncertainty of the soil property estimates.

  2. Classes of Split-Plot Response Surface Designs for Equivalent Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, Peter A.; Kowalski, Scott M.; Vining, G. Geoffrey

    2006-01-01

    When planning an experimental investigation, we are frequently faced with factors that are difficult or time consuming to manipulate, thereby making complete randomization impractical. A split-plot structure differentiates between the experimental units associated with these hard-to-change factors and others that are relatively easy-to-change and provides an efficient strategy that integrates the restrictions imposed by the experimental apparatus. Several industrial and scientific examples are presented to illustrate design considerations encountered in the restricted randomization context. In this paper, we propose classes of split-plot response designs that provide an intuitive and natural extension from the completely randomized context. For these designs, the ordinary least squares estimates of the model are equivalent to the generalized least squares estimates. This property provides best linear unbiased estimators and simplifies model estimation. The design conditions that allow for equivalent estimation are presented enabling design construction strategies to transform completely randomized Box-Behnken, equiradial, and small composite designs into a split-plot structure.

  3. Estimation of a Ramsay-Curve Item Response Theory Model by the Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro Algorithm

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Monroe, Scott; Cai, Li

    2014-01-01

    In Ramsay curve item response theory (RC-IRT) modeling, the shape of the latent trait distribution is estimated simultaneously with the item parameters. In its original implementation, RC-IRT is estimated via Bock and Aitkin's EM algorithm, which yields maximum marginal likelihood estimates. This method, however, does not produce the…

  4. Bacterial responses to fluctuations and extremes in temperature and brine salinity at the surface of Arctic winter sea ice.

    PubMed

    Ewert, Marcela; Deming, Jody W

    2014-08-01

    Wintertime measurements near Barrow, Alaska, showed that bacteria near the surface of first-year sea ice and in overlying saline snow experience more extreme temperatures and salinities, and wider fluctuations in both parameters, than bacteria deeper in the ice. To examine impacts of such conditions on bacterial survival, two Arctic isolates with different environmental tolerances were subjected to winter-freezing conditions, with and without the presence of organic solutes involved in osmoprotection: proline, choline, or glycine betaine. Obligate psychrophile Colwellia psychrerythraea strain 34H suffered cell losses under all treatments, with maximal loss after 15-day exposure to temperatures fluctuating between -7 and -25 °C. Osmoprotectants significantly reduced the losses, implying that salinity rather than temperature extremes presents the greater stress for this organism. In contrast, psychrotolerant Psychrobacter sp. strain 7E underwent miniaturization and fragmentation under both fluctuating and stable-freezing conditions, with cell numbers increasing in most cases, implying a different survival strategy that may include enhanced dispersal. Thus, the composition and abundance of the bacterial community that survives in winter sea ice may depend on the extent to which overlying snow buffers against extreme temperature and salinity conditions and on the availability of solutes that mitigate osmotic shock, especially during melting.

  5. Estimated variability of real-ear insertion response (REIR) due to loudspeaker type and placement.

    PubMed

    Stone, Michael A; Moore, Brian C

    2004-05-01

    The real-ear insertion response (REIR) of a hearing aid is estimated as the difference between the aided response and the unaided response in the ear canal. Changes in the position of the loudspeaker relative to the head, between the two measurements, may reduce the accuracy of the estimate. The spatial variability of the sound field at distances close to the loudspeaker is less for a 'flat-panel' loudspeaker than for a conventional cone loudspeaker; the panel might thus lead to a reduced influence of loud-speaker position. To assess this, we measured the real-ear unaided response (REUR) as each of three loudspeakers (two cone type and one panel) was moved in a three-dimensional space centred at either 0 degrees or 45 degrees azimuth, at a distance of 50cm from a KEMAR manikin. Contrary to our expectation, the variability of the REUR was larger for the panel than for the cone loudspeakers The REUR varied less with position for the 0 degrees than for the 45 degrees azimuth. The variability of the REUR decreased with increasing distance of the loudspeaker from KEMAR. We tentatively suggest that loudspeaker-to-client distances of 40-50 cm should be used and that a 0 degrees azimuth is preferable.

  6. Estimation of Supersonic Stage Separation Aerodynamics of Winged-Body Launch Vehicles Using Response Surface Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Erickson, Gary E.; Deloach, Richard

    2008-01-01

    A collection of statistical and mathematical techniques referred to as response surface methodology was used to estimate the longitudinal stage separation aerodynamic characteristics of a generic, bimese, winged multi-stage launch vehicle configuration using data obtained on small-scale models at supersonic speeds in the NASA Langley Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The simulated Mach 3 staging was dominated by multiple shock wave interactions between the orbiter and booster vehicles throughout the relative spatial locations of interest. This motivated a partitioning of the overall inference space into several contiguous regions within which the separation aerodynamics were presumed to be well-behaved and estimable using cuboidal and spherical central composite designs capable of fitting full second-order response functions. The primary goal was to approximate the underlying overall aerodynamic response surfaces of the booster vehicle in belly-to-belly proximity to the orbiter vehicle using relatively simple, lower-order polynomial functions that were piecewise-continuous across the full independent variable ranges of interest. The quality of fit and prediction capabilities of the empirical models were assessed in detail, and the issue of subspace boundary discontinuities was addressed. The potential benefits of augmenting the central composite designs to full third order using computer-generated D-optimality criteria were also evaluated. The usefulness of central composite designs, the subspace sizing, and the practicality of fitting low-order response functions over a partitioned inference space dominated by highly nonlinear and possibly discontinuous shock-induced aerodynamics are discussed.

  7. Sensitivity of the resting-state haemodynamic response function estimation to autonomic nervous system fluctuations.

    PubMed

    Wu, Guo-Rong; Marinazzo, Daniele

    2016-05-13

    The haemodynamic response function (HRF) is a key component of the blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signal, providing the mapping between neural activity and the signal measured with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Most of the time the HRF is associated with task-based fMRI protocols, in which its onset is explicitly included in the design matrix. On the other hand, the HRF also mediates the relationship between spontaneous neural activity and the BOLD signal in resting-state protocols, in which no explicit stimulus is taken into account. It has been shown that resting-state brain dynamics can be characterized by looking at sparse BOLD 'events', which can be retrieved by point process analysis. These events can be then used to retrieve the HRF at rest. Crucially, cardiac activity can also induce changes in the BOLD signal, thus affecting both the number of these events and the estimation of the haemodynamic response. In this study, we compare the resting-state haemodynamic response retrieved by means of a point process analysis, taking the cardiac fluctuations into account. We find that the resting-state HRF estimation is significantly modulated in the brainstem and surrounding cortical areas. From the analysis of two high-quality datasets with different temporal and spatial resolution, and through the investigation of intersubject correlation, we suggest that spontaneous point process response durations are associated with the mean interbeat interval and low-frequency power of heart rate variability in the brainstem. PMID:27044997

  8. Excitation, response, and fatigue life estimation methods for the structural design of externally blown flaps

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ungar, E. E.; Chandiramani, K. L.; Barger, J. E.

    1972-01-01

    Means for predicting the fluctuating pressures acting on externally blown flap surfaces are developed on the basis of generalizations derived from non-dimensionalized empirical data. Approaches for estimation of the fatigue lives of skin-stringer and honeycomb-core sandwich flap structures are derived from vibration response analyses and panel fatigue data. Approximate expressions for fluctuating pressures, structural response, and fatigue life are combined to reveal the important parametric dependences. The two-dimensional equations of motion of multi-element flap systems are derived in general form, so that they can be specialized readily for any particular system. An introduction is presented of an approach to characterizing the excitation pressures and structural responses which makes use of space-time spectral concepts and promises to provide useful insights, as well as experimental and analytical savings.

  9. A pre-computed brain response atlas for instantaneous strain estimation in contact sports

    PubMed Central

    Ji, Songbai; Zhao, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Finite element models of the human head play an important role in investigating the mechanisms of traumatic brain injury, including sports concussion. A critical limitation, however, is that they incur a substantial computational cost to simulate even a single impact. Therefore, current simulation schemes significantly hamper brain injury studies based on model-estimated tissue-level responses. In this study, we investigate the feasibility of a pre-computed brain response atlas (pcBRA) to substantially increase the simulation efficiency in estimating brain strains using isolated rotational acceleration impulses parameterized with four independent variables (peak magnitude and duration, and rotational axis azimuth and elevation angles) with values determined from on-field measurements. Using randomly generated testing datasets, the partially established pcBRA achieved a 100% success rate in interpolation based on element-wise differences in accumulated peak strain (εp) according to a “double-10%” criterion or average regional εp in generic regions and the corpus callosum. A similar performance was maintained in extrapolation. The pcBRA performance was further successfully evaluated against responses directly simulating two independently measured typical real-world rotational profiles. The computational cost to estimate element-wise whole-brain or regional εp was 6 sec and <0.01 sec, respectively, vs. ~50 min directly simulating a 40 ms impulse. These findings suggest the pcBRA could substantially increase the throughput in impact simulation without significant loss of accuracy from the estimation itself and, thus, its potential to accelerate the exploration of the mechanisms of sports concussion in general. If successful, the pcBRA may also become a diagnostic adjunct in conjunction with sensors that measure head impact kinematics on the field to objectively monitor and identify tissue-level brain trauma in real-time for “return-to-play” decision

  10. Bayesian dose-response analysis for epidemiological studies with complex uncertainty in dose estimation.

    PubMed

    Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian E; Simon, Steven L

    2016-02-10

    Most conventional risk analysis methods rely on a single best estimate of exposure per person, which does not allow for adjustment for exposure-related uncertainty. Here, we propose a Bayesian model averaging method to properly quantify the relationship between radiation dose and disease outcomes by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainty in estimated dose. Our Bayesian risk analysis method utilizes multiple realizations of sets (vectors) of doses generated by a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation method that properly separates shared and unshared errors in dose estimation. The exposure model used in this work is taken from a study of the risk of thyroid nodules among a cohort of 2376 subjects who were exposed to fallout from nuclear testing in Kazakhstan. We assessed the performance of our method through an extensive series of simulations and comparisons against conventional regression risk analysis methods. When the estimated doses contain relatively small amounts of uncertainty, the Bayesian method using multiple a priori plausible draws of dose vectors gave similar results to the conventional regression-based methods of dose-response analysis. However, when large and complex mixtures of shared and unshared uncertainties are present, the Bayesian method using multiple dose vectors had significantly lower relative bias than conventional regression-based risk analysis methods and better coverage, that is, a markedly increased capability to include the true risk coefficient within the 95% credible interval of the Bayesian-based risk estimate. An evaluation of the dose-response using our method is presented for an epidemiological study of thyroid disease following radiation exposure.

  11. Using Model Simulations to Improve Interpretations of Paleoclimate Variability and Estimates of Vegetation Response to Potential Future Drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2004-12-01

    Future climate change will involve not just changes in the mean state of the climate but also changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme climate events. How will modern ecosystems respond to these future climate changes? Paleoenvironmental data provide an important record of past environmental response to changes in climate variability. Often, however, paleoenvironmental records do not have a sufficient temporal resolution to indicate whether an observed environmental change was due to variations in the magnitude, frequency, or duration of a particular climate change. For example, pollen records from lakes may record a vegetation shift indicating that a drought occurred at a particular time in the past, but they may not have the temporal resolution to indicate whether the observed vegetation response was the result of one large multi-year drought or frequent annual-scale droughts occurring over a period of decades. In this study we use models to simulate vegetation response to drought under a range of climate variability scenarios. We focus on drought events because they are frequently recorded in paleoenvironmental data and because the potential impacts of droughts under future climate are of particular societal concern. We use climate data from the Climate Research Unit (East Anglia, UK) 30-minute CL 2.0 data set (New et al. 2002) and the Tyndall Centre (East Anglia, UK) 30-minute TS 2.0 data set (Mitchell et al. 2003). Our climate variability scenarios include changes in the frequency, magnitude, and duration of drought events on intra-annual, inter-annual, and decadal time scales. Vegetation responses to these changes in climate variability are simulated using LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model (Sitch et al. 2003). We focus on simulations of woodlands and grassland-forest boundaries in North America because these vegetation types are particularly responsive to changes in moisture regime, such as drought. The results of this study indicate

  12. Trying to Learn Lessons for Response to Extreme Events: Paradigm Shifts Affecting Civil Defense in the Trinational Region of Southwestern Amazonia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, G. L. P.

    2015-12-01

    The last ten years have seen several extreme climate events in southwestern Amazonia with historic impacts. The City of Rio Branco, Capital of Acre, Brazil´s westernmost State, suffered its seventh consecutive annual flooding and its worst in March 2015. The city of Tarauacá, also in Acre, registered 12 flooding events between November 2014 and April 2015. The most recent flood of the trinational Acre River in 2015 set historic records for flood stage and number of displaced persons in Cobija, the Capital of Pando, Bolivia. From February to April 2014, floods of the Madeira River disrupted the one highway between Acre and southern Brazil. Puerto Maldonado, the capital in Madre de Dios Region of Peru had its worst flood in 50 years during 2014. In 2005 and 2010, prolonged droughts combined with ignition sources resulted in tens to hundreds of thousands of hectares of fire-damaged rainforests in the Madre de Dios, Acre and Pando (MAP) Region. The Civil Defenses in these three contiguous political units faced several abrupt paradigm shifts that affected their responses: 1) The drought of 2005 showed dramatically that regional rainforests do burn; 2) The recent flooding history, particularly in 2012 and 2015, demolished the cultural icon of a nine-year recurrence interval; 3) What happens outside your territory can be devastating. The Madeira River flood impeded an estimated 200 million dollars from circulating in Acre; 4) The past can be a terrible guide. For Cobija and Rio Branco, the 2015 flood was on the order of a meter higher than any other. Many home dwellers did not evacuate in time because they used past floods as a guide; 5) A collapse in communication - cell phones, land lines, and Internet - can get worse. In 2012, such a collapse occurred in two border towns for 5 days, yet in 2015 it lasted more than 11 days. Research is needed to address how institutions linked to Civil Defense can shift paradigms in time to be more effective.

  13. The Wikipedia Gender Gap Revisited: Characterizing Survey Response Bias with Propensity Score Estimation.

    PubMed

    Hill, Benjamin Mako; Shaw, Aaron

    2013-01-01

    Opt-in surveys are the most widespread method used to study participation in online communities, but produce biased results in the absence of adjustments for non-response. A 2008 survey conducted by the Wikimedia Foundation and United Nations University at Maastricht is the source of a frequently cited statistic that less than 13% of Wikipedia contributors are female. However, the same study suggested that only 39.9% of Wikipedia readers in the US were female - a finding contradicted by a representative survey of American adults by the Pew Research Center conducted less than two months later. Combining these two datasets through an application and extension of a propensity score estimation technique used to model survey non-response bias, we construct revised estimates, contingent on explicit assumptions, for several of the Wikimedia Foundation and United Nations University at Maastricht claims about Wikipedia editors. We estimate that the proportion of female US adult editors was 27.5% higher than the original study reported (22.7%, versus 17.8%), and that the total proportion of female editors was 26.8% higher (16.1%, versus 12.7%). PMID:23840366

  14. Estimating transient climate response using consistent temperature reconstruction methods in models and observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, M.; Cowtan, K.; Hawkins, E.; Stolpe, M.

    2015-12-01

    Observational temperature records such as HadCRUT4 typically have incomplete geographical coverage and blend air temperature over land with sea surface temperatures over ocean, in contrast to model output which is commonly reported as global air temperature. This complicates estimation of properties such as the transient climate response (TCR). Observation-based estimates of TCR have been made using energy-budget constraints applied to time series of historical radiative forcing and surface temperature changes, while model TCR is formally derived from simulations where CO2 increases at 1% per year. We perform a like-with-like comparison using three published energy-budget methods to derive modelled TCR from historical CMIP5 temperature series sampled in a manner consistent with HadCRUT4. Observation-based TCR estimates agree to within 0.12 K of the multi-model mean in each case and for 2 of the 3 energy-budget methods the observation-based TCR is higher than the multi-model mean. For one energy-budget method, using the HadCRUT4 blending method leads to a TCR underestimate of 0.3±0.1 K, relative to that estimated using global near-surface air temperatures.

  15. Multilevel Selection 2: Estimating the Genetic Parameters Determining Inheritance and Response to Selection

    PubMed Central

    Bijma, Piter; Muir, William M.; Ellen, Esther D.; Wolf, Jason B.; Van Arendonk, Johan A. M.

    2007-01-01

    Interactions among individuals are universal, both in animals and in plants and in natural as well as domestic populations. Understanding the consequences of these interactions for the evolution of populations by either natural or artificial selection requires knowledge of the heritable components underlying them. Here we present statistical methodology to estimate the genetic parameters determining response to multilevel selection of traits affected by interactions among individuals in general populations. We apply these methods to obtain estimates of genetic parameters for survival days in a population of layer chickens with high mortality due to pecking behavior. We find that heritable variation is threefold greater than that obtained from classical analyses, meaning that two-thirds of the full heritable variation is hidden to classical analysis due to social interactions. As a consequence, predicted responses to multilevel selection applied to this population are threefold greater than classical predictions. This work, combined with the quantitative genetic theory for response to multilevel selection presented in an accompanying article in this issue, enables the design of selection programs to effectively reduce competitive interactions in livestock and plants and the prediction of the effects of social interactions on evolution in natural populations undergoing multilevel selection. PMID:17110493

  16. The effect of the transducers on paediatric thresholds estimated with auditory steady-state responses.

    PubMed

    Bakhos, D; Vitaux, H; Villeneuve, A; Kim, S; Lescanne, E; Pigeon, V; Aoustin, J M; Bordure, P; Galvin, J

    2016-08-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the usefulness of auditory steady-state responses (ASSRs) for estimating hearing thresholds in young children, compared with behavioural thresholds. The second objective was to investigate ASSR thresholds obtained with insert earphones versus supra-aural headphones to determine which transducer produces ASSR thresholds most similar to behavioural thresholds measured with supra-aural headphones. This retrospective study included 29 participants (58 ears): 12 children (24 ears) in the insert group and 17 children (34 ears) in the supra-aural group. No general anaesthesia was used. For both groups, there was a strong correlation between behavioural and ASSR thresholds, with a stronger correlation for the insert group. When behavioural thresholds are difficult to obtain, ASSR may be a useful objective measure that can be combined with other audiometric procedures to estimate hearing thresholds and to determine appropriate auditory rehabilitation approaches.

  17. Estimating Large-Customer Demand Response Market Potential:Integrating Price and Customer Behavior

    SciTech Connect

    Goldman, Charles; Hopper, Nicole; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan,Bernie; Cappers, Peter

    2007-06-01

    ABSTRACT=Demand response (DR) is increasingly recognized asan essential ingredient to well-functioning electricity markets. DRmarket potential studies can answer questions about the amount of DRavailable in a given area, from which market segments. Several recent DRmarket potential studies have been conducted, most adapting techniquesused to estimate energy-efficiency (EE) potential. In this scoping study,we: reviewed and categorized seven recent DR market potential studies;recommended a methodology for estimating DR market potential for large,non-residential utility customers that uses price elasticities to accountfor behavior and prices; compiled participation rates and elasticityvalues from six DR options offered to large customers in recent years,and demonstrated our recommended methodology with large customer marketpotential scenarios at an illustrative Northeastern utility. We recommendan elasticity approach for large-customer DR options that rely oncusto!

  18. CYTOGENETIC AND MOLECULAR RESPONSES OF AMMONIUM SULPHATE APPLICATION FOR TOLERANCE TO EXTREME TEMPERATURES IN VICIA FABA L.

    PubMed

    Öney, S; Tabur, S; Tuna, M

    2015-01-01

    Effects of ammonium sulphate [(NH4)2SO4] on mitosis, cell cycle and chromosomes in Vicia faba L. seeds exposed to extreme temperatures were investigated using flowcytometric and cytogenetic analysis. Seeds germinated at high and low temperatures showed a signiicant decrease in mitotic index as compared to those of optimum temperature conditions. Application of 50 and 1000 µM (NH4)2SO4 were successful in alleviating the negative effects of low and high temperature on mitotic activity, respectively. 50 µM (NH4)2SO4 showed the most positive effect on cell cycle at the extreme temperatures. This concentration increased the cell division removing or decreasing the negative effects of temperature stress. Namely, the highest G2/M and S phase percentages under stress conditions were obtained with application of 50 µM (NH4)2SO4. Chromosomal aberrations were not observed in cells of seeds germinated in distilled water and also at any temperatures. However, the frequency of chromosomal aberrations increased significantly by increasing (NH4)2SO4 concentration. The highest aberration frequency in all temperature degree tested was found at 1000 µM (NH4)2SO4 concentration.

  19. CYTOGENETIC AND MOLECULAR RESPONSES OF AMMONIUM SULPHATE APPLICATION FOR TOLERANCE TO EXTREME TEMPERATURES IN VICIA FABA L.

    PubMed

    Öney, S; Tabur, S; Tuna, M

    2015-01-01

    Effects of ammonium sulphate [(NH4)2SO4] on mitosis, cell cycle and chromosomes in Vicia faba L. seeds exposed to extreme temperatures were investigated using flowcytometric and cytogenetic analysis. Seeds germinated at high and low temperatures showed a signiicant decrease in mitotic index as compared to those of optimum temperature conditions. Application of 50 and 1000 µM (NH4)2SO4 were successful in alleviating the negative effects of low and high temperature on mitotic activity, respectively. 50 µM (NH4)2SO4 showed the most positive effect on cell cycle at the extreme temperatures. This concentration increased the cell division removing or decreasing the negative effects of temperature stress. Namely, the highest G2/M and S phase percentages under stress conditions were obtained with application of 50 µM (NH4)2SO4. Chromosomal aberrations were not observed in cells of seeds germinated in distilled water and also at any temperatures. However, the frequency of chromosomal aberrations increased significantly by increasing (NH4)2SO4 concentration. The highest aberration frequency in all temperature degree tested was found at 1000 µM (NH4)2SO4 concentration. PMID:26638498

  20. Development and validation of a two-dimensional fast-response flood estimation model

    SciTech Connect

    Judi, David R; Mcpherson, Timothy N; Burian, Steven J

    2009-01-01

    A finite difference formulation of the shallow water equations using an upwind differencing method was developed maintaining computational efficiency and accuracy such that it can be used as a fast-response flood estimation tool. The model was validated using both laboratory controlled experiments and an actual dam breach. Through the laboratory experiments, the model was shown to give good estimations of depth and velocity when compared to the measured data, as well as when compared to a more complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies show that a relatively numerical scheme used to solve the complete shallow water equations can be used to accurately estimate flood inundation. Future work will focus on further reducing the computation time needed to provide flood inundation estimates for fast-response analyses. This will be accomplished through the efficient use of multi-core, multi-processor computers coupled with an efficient domain-tracking algorithm, as well as an understanding of the impacts of grid resolution on model results.

  1. Estimation of oxygen uptake from heart rate response to undersea work.

    PubMed

    Dwyer, J

    1983-06-01

    The efficacy of using a diver's heart rate (HR) response to work performed formed in the open sea to estimate the oxygen uptake (VO2) and work stress by general and depth-specific regression equations was examined in six scuba divers. A diver-carried data recording system and an underwater gas sampler were used to obtain measures of physiological responses to work in the ocean. The HR and VO2 were measured during dry cycling at 1 ATA, and during moderate to very heavy work fin-swimming against an ergometer at 2, 3, and 4 ATA. Underwater VO2 and HR at 2-4 ATA ranged from 1.41 to 3.89 liters/min (39%-89% VO2max observed on land) and 105-180 beats/min, respectively. Individual data points at three work levels at 1-4 ATA were used to compute correlation coefficients (r) and regression equations. Only one significant difference in regression slopes was found (1 ATA vs. 4 ATA), but large differences in intercept were observed in each comparison. From 1 ATA to 4 ATA r decreased from 0.78 to 0.53 while the standard error of VO2 estimated from HR (Syx) increased from 0.229 to 0.582 liters O2. The regression equation for dry exercise (1 ATA) underestimated VO2 over most of the work range by 0.4 to 0.9 liters/min or 11% to 25% of VO2max. The accuracy of estimating VO2 from cardiac response by general (1 ATA) or depth-specific regression equations is insufficient to justify their use in research or diver monitoring systems. Attempts to estimate VO2 from pulmonary ventilation (VE) gave similar results with more differences between slopes among the conditions. These observations and those of other investigators support the idea that underwater work loads and stress cannot be estimated or evaluated by simple HR measurements that are made during diving operations and interpreted in terms of sea-level standards.

  2. Semi-phenomenological method for applying microdosimetry in estimating biological response

    SciTech Connect

    Higgins, P.D.; DeLuca, P.M. Jr.; Pearson, D.W.; Gould, M.N.

    1981-01-01

    A semi-phenomenological approach has been used to estimate cell survival on the basis of microdosimetrically obtained measurements of beam quality, together with determinations of the biological cytotoxic response parameters of V79 Chinese hamster cells. Cells were exposed to a field of minimally ionizing radiation and to fields at least partially comprised of high LET radiation. We show that for widely varying experimental conditions, we can predict, with good reliability, cell survival for any arbitrary known beam quality and with a minimum of biological input.

  3. Adaptive Partial Response Maximum Likelihood Detection with Tilt Estimation Using Sync Pattern

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Kyusuk; Lee, Joohyun; Lee, Jaejin

    2006-02-01

    We propose an improved detection method that concurrently adjusts the coefficients of equalizer and reference branch values in Viterbi detector. For the estimation of asymmetric channel characteristics, we exploit sync patterns in each data frame. Because of using the read-only memory (ROM) table to renew the coefficients of equalizer and reference values of branches, the complexity of the hardware is reduced. The proposed partial response maximum likelihood (PRML) detector has been designed and verified by VerilogHDL and synthesized by Synopsys Design Compiler with Hynix 0.35 μm standard cell library.

  4. The Impact of Outliers on Cronbach's Coefficient Alpha Estimate of Reliability: Ordinal/Rating Scale Item Responses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Yan; Wu, Amery D.; Zumbo, Bruno D.

    2010-01-01

    In a recent Monte Carlo simulation study, Liu and Zumbo showed that outliers can severely inflate the estimates of Cronbach's coefficient alpha for continuous item response data--visual analogue response format. Little, however, is known about the effect of outliers for ordinal item response data--also commonly referred to as Likert, Likert-type,…

  5. Estimation of Channel-Forming Discharge and Large-Event Geomorphic Response Using HEC-RAS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamilton, P.; Strom, K.; Hosseiny, S. M. H.

    2015-12-01

    The goal of the present work was to consider the functionality and applicability of HEC-RAS sediment transport simulations in two situations. The first was as a mode for obtaining quick estimates of the effective discharge, one measure of channel-forming discharge, and the second was as a mode to quickly estimate sediment transport and the commensurate potential erosion and deposition during large flood events. Though there are many other sediment transport and morphodynamic models available, e.g., CCHE1D, Nays2DH, we were interested in using HEC-RAS since this is the model of choice for many regulatory bodies, e.g., FEMA, cities, and counties. This makes using the sediment transport capability of HEC-RAS a natural extension of models that already otherwise exist and are well calibrated. In first looking at the utility of these models, we wanted to estimate the effective discharge of streams. Effective discharge is one way of defining the channel-forming discharge for a stream and is therefore an important parameter in natural channel design and restoration efforts. By running this range of floods, one can easily obtain an estimate for recurrence interval most responsible for moving the majority of sediment over a long time period. Results were compared to data collected within our research group on the Brazos River (TX). Effective discharge is an important estimate, particularly in understanding the equilibrium channel condition. Nevertheless, large floods are contemporaneously catastrophic and understanding their potential effects is desirable. Finally, we performed some sensitivity analysis to better understand the underlying assumptions of the various sediment transport model options and how they might affect the outcome of the aforementioned computations.

  6. Improved method for retinotopy constrained source estimation of visual evoked responses

    PubMed Central

    Hagler, Donald J.; Dale, Anders M.

    2011-01-01

    Retinotopy constrained source estimation (RCSE) is a method for non-invasively measuring the time courses of activation in early visual areas using magnetoencephalography (MEG) or electroencephalography (EEG). Unlike conventional equivalent current dipole or distributed source models, the use of multiple, retinotopically-mapped stimulus locations to simultaneously constrain the solutions allows for the estimation of independent waveforms for visual areas V1, V2, and V3, despite their close proximity to each other. We describe modifications that improve the reliability and efficiency of this method. First, we find that increasing the number and size of visual stimuli results in source estimates that are less susceptible to noise. Second, to create a more accurate forward solution, we have explicitly modeled the cortical point spread of individual visual stimuli. Dipoles are represented as extended patches on the cortical surface, which take into account the estimated receptive field size at each location in V1, V2, and V3 as well as the contributions from contralateral, ipsilateral, dorsal, and ventral portions of the visual areas. Third, we implemented a map fitting procedure to deform a template to match individual subject retinotopic maps derived from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). This improves the efficiency of the overall method by allowing automated dipole selection, and it makes the results less sensitive to physiological noise in fMRI retinotopy data. Finally, the iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS) method was used to reduce the contribution from stimulus locations with high residual error for robust estimation of visual evoked responses. PMID:22102418

  7. Parameter Estimation in Stratified Cluster Sampling under Randomized Response Models for Sensitive Question Survey.

    PubMed

    Pu, Xiangke; Gao, Ge; Fan, Yubo; Wang, Mian

    2016-01-01

    Randomized response is a research method to get accurate answers to sensitive questions in structured sample survey. Simple random sampling is widely used in surveys of sensitive questions but hard to apply on large targeted populations. On the other side, more sophisticated sampling regimes and corresponding formulas are seldom employed to sensitive question surveys. In this work, we developed a series of formulas for parameter estimation in cluster sampling and stratified cluster sampling under two kinds of randomized response models by using classic sampling theories and total probability formulas. The performances of the sampling methods and formulas in the survey of premarital sex and cheating on exams at Soochow University were also provided. The reliability of the survey methods and formulas for sensitive question survey was found to be high.

  8. A Bayesian method to estimate the neutron response matrix of a single crystal CVD diamond detector

    SciTech Connect

    Reginatto, Marcel; Araque, Jorge Guerrero; Nolte, Ralf; Zbořil, Miroslav; Zimbal, Andreas; Gagnon-Moisan, Francis

    2015-01-13

    Detectors made from artificial chemical vapor deposition (CVD) single crystal diamond are very promising candidates for applications where high resolution neutron spectrometry in very high neutron fluxes is required, for example in fusion research. We propose a Bayesian method to estimate the neutron response function of the detector for a continuous range of neutron energies (in our case, 10 MeV ≤ E{sub n} ≤ 16 MeV) based on a few measurements with quasi-monoenergetic neutrons. This method is needed because a complete set of measurements is not available and the alternative approach of using responses based on Monte Carlo calculations is not feasible. Our approach uses Bayesian signal-background separation techniques and radial basis function interpolation methods. We present the analysis of data measured at the PTB accelerator facility PIAF. The method is quite general and it can be applied to other particle detectors with similar characteristics.

  9. Extreme Mean and Its Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Swaroop, R.; Brownlow, J. D.

    1979-01-01

    Extreme value statistics obtained from normally distributed data are considered. An extreme mean is defined as the mean of p-th probability truncated normal distribution. An unbiased estimate of this extreme mean and its large sample distribution are derived. The distribution of this estimate even for very large samples is found to be nonnormal. Further, as the sample size increases, the variance of the unbiased estimate converges to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. The computer program used to obtain the density and distribution functions of the standardized unbiased estimate, and the confidence intervals of the extreme mean for any data are included for ready application. An example is included to demonstrate the usefulness of extreme mean application.

  10. Seismic Wave Amplification in Las Vegas: Site Response and Empirical Estimates of Ground Motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodgers, A.; McCallen, D.; Tkalcic, H.; Wagoner, J.; Louie, J.; Anderson, J.; Luke, B.; Snelson, C.; Taylor, W.

    2004-12-01

    This presentation will summarize a multidisciplinary effort to understand seismic wave amplification in Las Vegas Valley. The project involves weak motion recording and analysis, geotechnical and seismic refraction field studies, geologic and lithologic interpretation and model building. We will provide a brief overview of the project, then focus on specifics of seismic wave amplification including observations and interpretations. We analyzed recordings of nuclear explosions from the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and regional earthquakes to estimate site response in Las Vegas. An empirical transfer function method was used to transform ground motion time-series at one (reference) station to other stations, using frequency dependent site response curves in the band 0.2-5.0 Hz. The method transforms the time-series to the frequency domain by Fast Fourier transform, multiplies the amplitude spectrum by the site response curve and inverse FFT's back to the time domain. The approach is validated by the ability to predict horizontal component S-wave ground motion measures, such as peak and rms ground velocities and accelerations. We then can provide empirical estimates of ground motion for a wider distribution of sites in Las Vegas. Frequency dependent amplifications (site response) and peak ground motions are strongly correlated with measures of shallow shear-wave (geotechnical) velocities. Details of the geotechnical measurements and models will be presented in a companion presentation. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No. W-7405-Eng-48.

  11. Tropospheric Response to Estimated Spectrally Discriminated Solar Forcing Over the Past 500 Years

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM) is used to investigate the effect of estimated solar irradiance changes on climate for the past 500 years. This model is employed to allow the impact of UV variations on the stratosphere to affect the troposphere via wave-mean flow interactions. Multiple experiments are done with only a total solar irradiance change (peaking at 0.2 percent from the Maunder Minimum to today); with estimated spectrally-varying irradiance changes (i.e., peak changes of 0.7 percent in the UV, 0.2 percent in the visible and near IR; and 0.07 percent in the IR greater than 1 micron); and the spectrally-varying changes in conjunction with model calculated ozone responses in the stratosphere. Results of the varying temperature patterns and radiation response will be discussed. Of interest is whether the different methods of forcing the solar-induced climate change produce different spatial surface temperature signatures, particularly ones that can be differentiated from greenhouse gas warming. In preliminary tests, spectrally-varying solar forcing with induced ozone changes for solar maximum minus solar minimum conditions results in a temperature signal that is primarily at high latitudes.The high latitude response arises due to solar/ozone-induced alterations in the stratospheric wind field that affect planetary wave propagation from the troposphere, and alter tropospheric advection patterns. In contrast, forcing by total solar irradiance changes produces significant response at low and subtropical latitudes as well, driven by water vapor and cloud feedbacks to the radiative perturbation.

  12. Real-Time Frequency Response Estimation Using Joined-Wing SensorCraft Aeroelastic Wind-Tunnel Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grauer, Jared A; Heeg, Jennifer; Morelli, Eugene A

    2012-01-01

    A new method is presented for estimating frequency responses and their uncertainties from wind-tunnel data in real time. The method uses orthogonal phase-optimized multi- sine excitation inputs and a recursive Fourier transform with a least-squares estimator. The method was first demonstrated with an F-16 nonlinear flight simulation and results showed that accurate short period frequency responses were obtained within 10 seconds. The method was then applied to wind-tunnel data from a previous aeroelastic test of the Joined- Wing SensorCraft. Frequency responses describing bending strains from simultaneous control surface excitations were estimated in a time-efficient manner.

  13. TREFEX: Trend Estimation and Change Detection in the Response of MOX Gas Sensors

    PubMed Central

    Pashami, Sepideh; Lilienthal, Achim J.; Schaffernicht, Erik; Trincavelli, Marco

    2013-01-01

    Many applications of metal oxide gas sensors can benefit from reliable algorithms to detect significant changes in the sensor response. Significant changes indicate a change in the emission modality of a distant gas source and occur due to a sudden change of concentration or exposure to a different compound. As a consequence of turbulent gas transport and the relatively slow response and recovery times of metal oxide sensors, their response in open sampling configuration exhibits strong fluctuations that interfere with the changes of interest. In this paper we introduce TREFEX, a novel change point detection algorithm, especially designed for metal oxide gas sensors in an open sampling system. TREFEX models the response of MOX sensors as a piecewise exponential signal and considers the junctions between consecutive exponentials as change points. We formulate non-linear trend filtering and change point detection as a parameter-free convex optimization problem for single sensors and sensor arrays. We evaluate the performance of the TREFEX algorithm experimentally for different metal oxide sensors and several gas emission profiles. A comparison with the previously proposed GLR method shows a clearly superior performance of the TREFEX algorithm both in detection performance and in estimating the change time. PMID:23736853

  14. TREFEX: trend estimation and change detection in the response of MOX gas sensors.

    PubMed

    Pashami, Sepideh; Lilienthal, Achim J; Schaffernicht, Erik; Trincavelli, Marco

    2013-06-04

    Many applications of metal oxide gas sensors can benefit from reliable algorithms to detect significant changes in the sensor response. Significant changes indicate a change in the emission modality of a distant gas source and occur due to a sudden change of concentration or exposure to a different compound. As a consequence of turbulent gas transport and the relatively slow response and recovery times of metal oxide sensors, their response in open sampling configuration exhibits strong fluctuations that interfere with the changes of interest. In this paper we introduce TREFEX, a novel change point detection algorithm, especially designed for metal oxide gas sensors in an open sampling system. TREFEX models the response of MOX sensors as a piecewise exponential signal and considers the junctions between consecutive exponentials as change points. We formulate non-linear trend filtering and change point detection as a parameter-free convex optimization problem for single sensors and sensor arrays. We evaluate the performance of the TREFEX algorithm experimentally for different metal oxide sensors and several gas emission profiles. A comparison with the previously proposed GLR method shows a clearly superior performance of the TREFEX algorithm both in detection performance and in estimating the change time.

  15. Estimating Cosmic-Ray Spectral Parameters from Simulated Detector Responses with Detector Design Implications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howell, L. W.

    2001-01-01

    A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index (alpha-1) is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at knee energy (E(sub k)) to a steeper spectral index alpha-2 > alpha-1 above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic-ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

  16. Estimating Cosmic Ray Spectral Parameters From Simulated Detector Responses With Detector Design Implications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howell, L. W.; Rose, M. Franklin (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index alpha (sub 1), is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at knee energy E(sub k) to a steeper spectral index alpha(sub 2) greater than alpha(sub 1) above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

  17. Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, Mark; Cowtan, Kevin; Hawkins, Ed; Stolpe, Martin B.

    2016-10-01

    Climate risks increase with mean global temperature, so knowledge about the amount of future global warming should better inform risk assessments for policymakers. Expected near-term warming is encapsulated by the transient climate response (TCR), formally defined as the warming following 70 years of 1% per year increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, by which point atmospheric CO2 has doubled. Studies based on Earth's historical energy budget have typically estimated lower values of TCR than climate models, suggesting that some models could overestimate future warming. However, energy-budget estimates rely on historical temperature records that are geographically incomplete and blend air temperatures over land and sea ice with water temperatures over open oceans. We show that there is no evidence that climate models overestimate TCR when their output is processed in the same way as the HadCRUT4 observation-based temperature record. Models suggest that air-temperature warming is 24% greater than observed by HadCRUT4 over 1861-2009 because slower-warming regions are preferentially sampled and water warms less than air. Correcting for these biases and accounting for wider uncertainties in radiative forcing based on recent evidence, we infer an observation-based best estimate for TCR of 1.66 °C, with a 5-95% range of 1.0-3.3 °C, consistent with the climate models considered in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report.

  18. Active skin perfusion and thermoregulatory response in the hand following nerve injury and repair in human upper extremities.

    PubMed

    Deng, Aidong; Liu, Dan; Gu, Chen; Gu, Xiaosong; Gu, Jianhui; Hu, Wen

    2016-01-01

    Cutaneous vasoconstriction/vasodilatation occurs in response to whole body and local cooling/heating, and the vasomotor activities play a pivotal role in thermal control of the human body. The mechanisms underlying regulation of skin blood flow involve both neurogenic and humeral/local chemical influence, contributing to the initial response to thermal stimuli and the prolonged phase of response, respectively. Previous studies have suggested the impairment of cutaneous thermal regulation after nerve injury. However, the evidence regarding how the skin perfusion and thermoregulatory response evolve after nerve injury and repair remains limited. Here we observed, by utilizing laser-Doppler perfusion imaging, baseline skin perfusion and perfusion change in response to thermal stimuli after median and ulnar nerve injury, and the results showed that baseline perfusion in autonomous skin area profoundly decreased and active rewarming after clod stress dramatically diminished before sensory recovery of the skin became detectable. In addition, baseline cutaneous perfusion was recovered as the skin regained touch sensation, and exhibited positive correlation to touch sensibility of the skin. These data indicate that both active perfusion and thermoregulatory response of the skin are markedly compromised during skin denervation and can be recovered by re-innervation. This suggests the importance of timely repair of injured nerve, especially in the practice of replantation. PMID:26529641

  19. Active skin perfusion and thermoregulatory response in the hand following nerve injury and repair in human upper extremities.

    PubMed

    Deng, Aidong; Liu, Dan; Gu, Chen; Gu, Xiaosong; Gu, Jianhui; Hu, Wen

    2016-01-01

    Cutaneous vasoconstriction/vasodilatation occurs in response to whole body and local cooling/heating, and the vasomotor activities play a pivotal role in thermal control of the human body. The mechanisms underlying regulation of skin blood flow involve both neurogenic and humeral/local chemical influence, contributing to the initial response to thermal stimuli and the prolonged phase of response, respectively. Previous studies have suggested the impairment of cutaneous thermal regulation after nerve injury. However, the evidence regarding how the skin perfusion and thermoregulatory response evolve after nerve injury and repair remains limited. Here we observed, by utilizing laser-Doppler perfusion imaging, baseline skin perfusion and perfusion change in response to thermal stimuli after median and ulnar nerve injury, and the results showed that baseline perfusion in autonomous skin area profoundly decreased and active rewarming after clod stress dramatically diminished before sensory recovery of the skin became detectable. In addition, baseline cutaneous perfusion was recovered as the skin regained touch sensation, and exhibited positive correlation to touch sensibility of the skin. These data indicate that both active perfusion and thermoregulatory response of the skin are markedly compromised during skin denervation and can be recovered by re-innervation. This suggests the importance of timely repair of injured nerve, especially in the practice of replantation.

  20. Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity.

    PubMed

    Swann, Abigail L S; Hoffman, Forrest M; Koven, Charles D; Randerson, James T

    2016-09-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment. PMID:27573831

  1. Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swann, Abigail L. S.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; Randerson, James T.

    2016-09-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment.

  2. Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity.

    PubMed

    Swann, Abigail L S; Hoffman, Forrest M; Koven, Charles D; Randerson, James T

    2016-09-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment.

  3. Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity

    PubMed Central

    Koven, Charles D.; Randerson, James T.

    2016-01-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment. PMID:27573831

  4. Study on the Strategies for the Soil and Water Resource Con-servation of Slopeland in Taiwan in Response to the Extreme Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Wen-Cheng

    2014-05-01

    Global climate change results in extreme weather, especially ex-treme precipitation in Taiwan. Though the total amount of precipi-tation remains unchanged, the frequency of rainfall return period increases which affects slopeland and causes sediment disaster. In Taiwan, slopeland occupies about 73% of national territory. Under harsh environmental stress, soil and water conservation of slope-land becomes more important. In response to the trends of global-ization impacts of climate change, long term strategic planning be-comes more necessary. This study reviewed international practices and decision making process about soil and water conservation of slopeland; and conducted the compilation and analysis of water and soil conservation related research projects in Taiwan within the past five years. It is necessary for Taiwan to design timely adaptive strategies about conducting the all-inclusive conservation of na-tional territory, management and business operation of watershed based on the existing regulation with the effects of extreme weather induced by climate change and the changes of social-economic en-vironments. In order to realize the policy vision of "Under the premise of multiple uses, operating the sustainable business and management of the water and soil resources in the watershed through territorial planning in response to the climate and so-cial-economic environment change". This study concluded the future tasks for soil and water con-servation: 1.Design and timely amend strategies for soil and wand water conservation in response to extreme weather. 2. Strengthen the planning and operating of the land management and integrated conservation of the water and soil resources of key watershed. 3. Manage and operate the prevention of debris flow disaster and large-scale landslide. 4. Formulate polices, related regulations and assessment indicators of soil and water conservation. 5. Maintain the biodiversity of the slopeland and reduce the ecological footprint

  5. Using Modified Mercalli Intensities to estimate acceleration response spectra for the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boatwright, J.; Bundock, H.; Seekins, L.C.

    2006-01-01

    We derive and test relations between the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) and the pseudo-acceleration response spectra at 1.0 and 0.3 s - SA(1.0 s) and SA(0.3 s) - in order to map response spectral ordinates for the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. Recent analyses of intensity have shown that MMI ??? 6 correlates both with peak ground velocity and with response spectra for periods from 0.5 to 3.0 s. We use these recent results to derive a linear relation between MMI and log SA(1.0 s), and we refine this relation by comparing the SA(1.0 s) estimated from Boatwright and Bundock's (2005) MMI map for the 1906 earthquake to the SA(1.0 s) calculated from recordings of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. South of San Jose, the intensity distributions for the 1906 and 1989 earthquakes are remarkably similar, despite the difference in magnitude and rupture extent between the two events. We use recent strong motion regressions to derive a relation between SA(1.0 s) and SA(0.3 s) for a M7.8 strike-slip earthquake that depends on soil type, acceleration level, and source distance. We test this relation by comparing SA(0.3 s) estimated for the 1906 earthquake to SA(0.3 s) calculated from recordings of both the 1989 Loma Prieta and 1994 Northridge earthquakes, as functions of distance from the fault. ?? 2006, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  6. The RosR transcription factor is required for gene expression dynamics in response to extreme oxidative stress in a hypersaline-adapted archaeon

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Previous work has shown that the hypersaline-adapted archaeon, Halobacterium salinarum NRC-1, is highly resistant to oxidative stress caused by exposure to hydrogen peroxide, UV, and gamma radiation. Dynamic alteration of the gene regulatory network (GRN) has been implicated in such resistance. However, the molecular functions of transcription regulatory proteins involved in this response remain unknown. Results Here we have reanalyzed several existing GRN and systems biology datasets for H. salinarum to identify and characterize a novel winged helix-turn-helix transcription factor, VNG0258H, as a regulator required for reactive oxygen species resistance in this organism. This protein appears to be unique to the haloarchaea at the primary sequence level. High throughput quantitative growth assays in a deletion mutant strain implicate VNG0258H in extreme oxidative stress resistance. According to time course gene expression analyses, this transcription factor is required for the appropriate dynamic response of nearly 300 genes to reactive oxygen species damage from paraquat and hydrogen peroxide. These genes are predicted to function in repair of oxidative damage to proteins and DNA. In vivo DNA binding assays demonstrate that VNG0258H binds DNA to mediate gene regulation. Conclusions Together these results suggest that VNG0258H is a novel archaeal transcription factor that regulates gene expression to enable adaptation to the extremely oxidative, hypersaline niche of H. salinarum. We have therefore renamed VNG0258H as RosR, for reactive oxygen species regulator. PMID:22846541

  7. Mechanisms for concurrent low-latitude circulation anomalies responsible for persistent extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Yang; Zhai, Panmao

    2016-08-01

    Concurrent position shifts of the mid-level western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the upper-level South Asia high (SAH) are regarded as significant precursors for persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPEs) in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). By performing composite analyses, accountable vorticity genesis and dissipation are diagnosed based on a potential vorticity-diabatic heating theory. The results indicate that about 1 week preceding precipitation onset, a wave-like pattern of anomalous diabatic heating (Q) initiates its northwestward propagation from equatorial central Pacific. Subsequently, this wave-like pattern induces substantial changes in both horizontal and vertical structure of local Q along the propagating route. Forced negative vorticities in key areas result in the zonal approach between the SAH and the WPSH. During PEPEs, two thermal-induced vertical circulation cells take shape, with common strong ascent centered in the YRV. These anomalous cells are capable of self-maintaining for a few days via positive feedback processes. The WPSH and the SAH are therefore anchored in respective favorable positions for PEPEs. Simultaneously, descending motion of these two cells increases local solar radiation and decreases upward latent heat flux from surface, facilitating warmer underlying surface and swift accumulation of lower-level moisture. Correspondingly, enhanced heating to the north and rapid developing cyclone over warmer sea surface to the south combine to terminate above positive feedback processes. Finally, both the WPSH and the SAH retreat to their normal positions, accompanied by a quick decay of PEPEs.

  8. Estimation of the transient response of a tuned, fractionally damped elastomeric isolator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fredette, Luke; Singh, Rajendra

    2016-11-01

    This article addresses the frequency dependent properties of elastomeric vibration isolators in the context of lumped parameter models with fractional damping elements. A mass is placed between two fractional calculus Kelvin-Voigt elements to develop a minimal order system for the example case of a conventional elastomeric bushing typical of automotive suspension systems. Model parameters are acquired from measured dynamic stiffness spectra and a finite element model. The minimal order system model accurately predicts dynamic stiffness in both broadband resonant behavior as well as the lower-frequency regime that is controlled by damping. For transient response analysis, an inverse Laplace transform of the dynamic stiffness spectrum is taken via the Residue Theorem. Since the fractional calculus based solution is given in terms of problematic integrals, a new time-frequency domain estimation technique is proposed which approximates time-domain responses for a class of transient excitation functions. The approximation error is quantified and found to be reasonably small, and tractable closed-form transient response functions are provided along with a discussion of numerical issues.

  9. Strong Earthquake Motion Estimates for the UCSB Campus, and Related Response of the Engineering 1 Building

    SciTech Connect

    Archuleta, R.; Bonilla, F.; Doroudian, M.; Elgamal, A.; Hueze, F.

    2000-06-06

    This is the second report on the UC/CLC Campus Earthquake Program (CEP), concerning the estimation of exposure of the U.C. Santa Barbara campus to strong earthquake motions (Phase 2 study). The main results of Phase 1 are summarized in the current report. This document describes the studies which resulted in site-specific strong motion estimates for the Engineering I site, and discusses the potential impact of these motions on the building. The main elements of Phase 2 are: (1) determining that a M 6.8 earthquake on the North Channel-Pitas Point (NCPP) fault is the largest threat to the campus. Its recurrence interval is estimated at 350 to 525 years; (2) recording earthquakes from that fault on March 23, 1998 (M 3.2) and May 14, 1999 (M 3.2) at the new UCSB seismic station; (3) using these recordings as empirical Green's functions (EGF) in scenario earthquake simulations which provided strong motion estimates (seismic syntheses) at a depth of 74 m under the Engineering I site; 240 such simulations were performed, each with the same seismic moment, but giving a broad range of motions that were analyzed for their mean and standard deviation; (4) laboratory testing, at U.C. Berkeley and U.C. Los Angeles, of soil samples obtained from drilling at the UCSB station site, to determine their response to earthquake-type loading; (5) performing nonlinear soil dynamic calculations, using the soil properties determined in-situ and in the laboratory, to calculate the surface strong motions resulting from the seismic syntheses at depth; (6) comparing these CEP-generated strong motion estimates to acceleration spectra based on the application of state-of-practice methods - the IBC 2000 code, UBC 97 code and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), this comparison will be used to formulate design-basis spectra for future buildings and retrofits at UCSB; and (7) comparing the response of the Engineering I building to the CEP ground motion estimates and to the design

  10. Effectiveness of Item Response Theory (IRT) Proficiency Estimation Methods under Adaptive Multistage Testing. Research Report. ETS RR-15-11

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Sooyeon; Moses, Tim; Yoo, Hanwook Henry

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this inquiry was to investigate the effectiveness of item response theory (IRT) proficiency estimators in terms of estimation bias and error under multistage testing (MST). We chose a 2-stage MST design in which 1 adaptation to the examinees' ability levels takes place. It includes 4 modules (1 at Stage 1, 3 at Stage 2) and 3 paths…

  11. Dynamic metabolic adjustments and genome plasticity are implicated in the heat shock response of the extremely thermoacidophilic archaeon Sulfolobus solfataricus.

    PubMed

    Tachdjian, Sabrina; Kelly, Robert M

    2006-06-01

    Approximately one-third of the open reading frames encoded in the Sulfolobus solfataricus genome were differentially expressed within 5 min following an 80 to 90 degrees C temperature shift at pH 4.0. This included many toxin-antitoxin loci and insertion elements, implicating a connection between genome plasticity and metabolic regulation in the early stages of stress response.

  12. A PerR-like protein involved in response to oxidative stress in the extreme bacterium Deinococcus radiodurans.

    PubMed

    Liu, Chengzhi; Wang, Liangyan; Li, Tao; Lin, Lin; Dai, Shang; Tian, Bing; Hua, Yuejin

    2014-07-18

    Response and defense systems against reactive oxygen species (ROS) contribute to the remarkable resistance of Deinococcus radiodurans to oxidative stress induced by oxidants or radiation. However, mechanisms involved in ROS response and defense systems of D. radiodurans are not well understood. Fur family proteins are important in ROS response. Only a single Fur homolog is predicted by sequence similarity in the current D. radiodurans genome database. Our bioinformatics analysis demonstrated an additional guanine nucleotide in the genome of D. radiodurans that is not in the database, leading to the discovery of another Fur homolog DrPerR. Gene disruption mutant of DrPerR showed enhanced resistance to hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) and increased catalase activity in cell extracts. Real-time PCR results indicated that DrPerR functions as a repressor of the catalase gene katE. Meanwhile, derepression of dps (DNA-binding proteins from starved cells) gene under H2O2 stress by DrPerR point to its regulatory role in metal ions hemostasis. Thus, DrPerR might function as a Fur homolog protein which is involved in ROS response and defense. These results help clarify the complicated regulatory network that responds to ROS stress in D. radiodurans.

  13. Effect of starving and feeding on some haematological and physiological responses of the Nile catfish, Clarias gariepinus exposed to copper at extreme seasons.

    PubMed

    Abdel-Hameid, Nassr-Allah H

    2011-12-01

    The lethal concentration for 50% of fish for 96h (96h LC(50)) of copper (Cu(2+)) was estimated for the Nile catfish (Clarias gariepinus) in extreme seasons, winter and summer, 4.31 and 4.79 mg/l, respectively. The Nile catfish was exposed to 96h LC(50) of copper for 7 days in extreme winter and summer. The body indices, haematological parameters as well as some plasma and liver enzyme activities and metabolite level were significantly differed in fish exposed to copper over than those of the control fish. Most of the tested parameters were not significantly different between the control fish of winter and summer (winter, water temperature 18 ± 2°C and summer, 27 ± 2°C). The effect of two ration sizes on copper toxicity in two different seasons on C. gariepinus was justified. It was found that the haematological parameters and the tested plasma activities of enzymes were significantly valid due to season differences. The blood parameters as well as plasma activities of enzymes were significantly differed in fishes fed elevated ration (3%) and exposed to copper challenge. On the other hand, the exploit of low feeding ration (0.5%) along with copper exposure during the examined seasons induced non-significant differences of the tested parameters, from those of the corresponding control. Therefore, the low feeding ration provides some tolerance against the possible water-borne copper exposure.

  14. A PerR-like protein involved in response to oxidative stress in the extreme bacterium Deinococcus radiodurans

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Chengzhi; Wang, Liangyan; Li, Tao; Lin, Lin; Dai, Shang; Tian, Bing Hua, Yuejin

    2014-07-18

    Highlights: • We report a novel PerR-like protein of Fur family in D. radiodurans that is not annotated in the current database. • drperR responses to H{sub 2}O{sub 2} and functions as a negative regulator of katE and dps. • We provided implications on how to utilize sequenced genome data and the importance of genome data mining. • This study adds knowledge to complicated regulatory network that responds to ROS stress in D. radiodurans. - Abstract: Response and defense systems against reactive oxygen species (ROS) contribute to the remarkable resistance of Deinococcus radiodurans to oxidative stress induced by oxidants or radiation. However, mechanisms involved in ROS response and defense systems of D. radiodurans are not well understood. Fur family proteins are important in ROS response. Only a single Fur homolog is predicted by sequence similarity in the current D. radiodurans genome database. Our bioinformatics analysis demonstrated an additional guanine nucleotide in the genome of D. radiodurans that is not in the database, leading to the discovery of another Fur homolog DrPerR. Gene disruption mutant of DrPerR showed enhanced resistance to hydrogen peroxide (H{sub 2}O{sub 2}) and increased catalase activity in cell extracts. Real-time PCR results indicated that DrPerR functions as a repressor of the catalase gene katE. Meanwhile, derepression of dps (DNA-binding proteins from starved cells) gene under H{sub 2}O{sub 2} stress by DrPerR point to its regulatory role in metal ions hemostasis. Thus, DrPerR might function as a Fur homolog protein which is involved in ROS response and defense. These results help clarify the complicated regulatory network that responds to ROS stress in D. radiodurans.

  15. Response of key soil parameters during compost-assisted phytostabilization in extremely acidic tailings: effect of plant species.

    PubMed

    Solís-Dominguez, Fernando A; White, Scott A; Hutter, Travis Borrillo; Amistadi, Mary Kay; Root, Robert A; Chorover, Jon; Maier, Raina M

    2012-01-17

    Phytostabilization of mine tailings acts to mitigate both eolian dispersion and water erosion events which can disseminate barren tailings over large distances. This technology uses plants to establish a vegetative cover to permanently immobilize contaminants in the rooting zone, often requiring addition of an amendment to assist plant growth. Here we report the results of a greenhouse study that evaluated the ability of six native plant species to grow in extremely acidic (pH ∼ 2.5) metalliferous (As, Pb, Zn: 2000-3000 mg kg(-1)) mine tailings from Iron King Mine Humboldt Smelter Superfund site when amended with a range of compost concentrations. Results revealed that three of the six plant species tested (buffalo grass, mesquite, and catclaw acacia) are good candidates for phytostabilization at an optimum level of 15% compost (w/w) amendment showing good growth and minimal shoot accumulation of metal(loid)s. A fourth candidate, quailbush, also met all criteria except for exceeding the domestic animal toxicity limit for shoot accumulation of zinc. A key finding of this study was that the plant species that grew most successfully on these tailings significantly influenced key tailings parameters; direct correlations between plant biomass and both increased tailings pH and neutrophilic heterotrophic bacterial counts were observed. We also observed decreased iron oxidizer counts and decreased bioavailability of metal(loid)s mainly as a result of compost amendment. Taken together, these results suggest that the phytostabilization process reduced tailings toxicity as well as the potential for metal(loid) mobilization. This study provides practical information on plant and tailings characteristics that is critically needed for successful implementation of assisted phytostabilization on acidic, metalliferous mine tailings sites. PMID:22191663

  16. Response of key soil parameters during compost-assisted phytostabilization in extremely acidic tailings: effect of plant species.

    PubMed

    Solís-Dominguez, Fernando A; White, Scott A; Hutter, Travis Borrillo; Amistadi, Mary Kay; Root, Robert A; Chorover, Jon; Maier, Raina M

    2012-01-17

    Phytostabilization of mine tailings acts to mitigate both eolian dispersion and water erosion events which can disseminate barren tailings over large distances. This technology uses plants to establish a vegetative cover to permanently immobilize contaminants in the rooting zone, often requiring addition of an amendment to assist plant growth. Here we report the results of a greenhouse study that evaluated the ability of six native plant species to grow in extremely acidic (pH ∼ 2.5) metalliferous (As, Pb, Zn: 2000-3000 mg kg(-1)) mine tailings from Iron King Mine Humboldt Smelter Superfund site when amended with a range of compost concentrations. Results revealed that three of the six plant species tested (buffalo grass, mesquite, and catclaw acacia) are good candidates for phytostabilization at an optimum level of 15% compost (w/w) amendment showing good growth and minimal shoot accumulation of metal(loid)s. A fourth candidate, quailbush, also met all criteria except for exceeding the domestic animal toxicity limit for shoot accumulation of zinc. A key finding of this study was that the plant species that grew most successfully on these tailings significantly influenced key tailings parameters; direct correlations between plant biomass and both increased tailings pH and neutrophilic heterotrophic bacterial counts were observed. We also observed decreased iron oxidizer counts and decreased bioavailability of metal(loid)s mainly as a result of compost amendment. Taken together, these results suggest that the phytostabilization process reduced tailings toxicity as well as the potential for metal(loid) mobilization. This study provides practical information on plant and tailings characteristics that is critically needed for successful implementation of assisted phytostabilization on acidic, metalliferous mine tailings sites.

  17. Shear and Turbulence Estimates for Calculation of Wind Turbine Loads and Responses Under Hurricane Strength Winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kosovic, B.; Bryan, G. H.; Haupt, S. E.

    2012-12-01

    would encounter under hurricane strength winds. These flow fields can be used to estimate wind turbine loads and responses with AeroDyn (http://wind.nrel.gov/designcodes/simulators/aerodyn/) and FAST (http://wind.nrel.gov/designcodes/simulators/fast/) codes also developed by NREL.

  18. Multiple linear regression to estimate time-frequency electrophysiological responses in single trials.

    PubMed

    Hu, L; Zhang, Z G; Mouraux, A; Iannetti, G D

    2015-05-01

    oscillations, obtaining single-trial estimate of response latency, frequency, and magnitude. This permits within-subject statistical comparisons, correlation with pre-stimulus features, and integration of simultaneously-recorded EEG and fMRI.

  19. Multiple linear regression to estimate time-frequency electrophysiological responses in single trials

    PubMed Central

    Hu, L.; Zhang, Z.G.; Mouraux, A.; Iannetti, G.D.

    2015-01-01

    oscillations, obtaining single-trial estimate of response latency, frequency, and magnitude. This permits within-subject statistical comparisons, correlation with pre-stimulus features, and integration of simultaneously-recorded EEG and fMRI. PMID:25665966

  20. Multiple linear regression to estimate time-frequency electrophysiological responses in single trials.

    PubMed

    Hu, L; Zhang, Z G; Mouraux, A; Iannetti, G D

    2015-05-01

    oscillations, obtaining single-trial estimate of response latency, frequency, and magnitude. This permits within-subject statistical comparisons, correlation with pre-stimulus features, and integration of simultaneously-recorded EEG and fMRI. PMID:25665966

  1. Dynamic Metabolic Adjustments and Genome Plasticity Are Implicated in the Heat Shock Response of the Extremely Thermoacidophilic Archaeon Sulfolobus solfataricus†

    PubMed Central

    Tachdjian, Sabrina; Kelly, Robert M.

    2006-01-01

    Approximately one-third of the open reading frames encoded in the Sulfolobus solfataricus genome were differentially expressed within 5 min following an 80 to 90°C temperature shift at pH 4.0. This included many toxin-antitoxin loci and insertion elements, implicating a connection between genome plasticity and metabolic regulation in the early stages of stress response. PMID:16740961

  2. Static response and stability of coated microbubbles—multiplicity of solutions and parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lytra, Alkmini; Pelekasis, Nikos

    2014-08-01

    The static response of a coated microbubble subject to an external pressure distribution is investigated, in order to identify different response patterns with varying viscoelastic properties of the shell. Theoretical and numerical analysis of the axisymmetric response of a microbubble is performed via the static force balance, in order to obtain the radial and tangential (polar) displacements of a shell subject to a uniform or point load. The stretching and bending stiffnesses of the shell, along with the compressibility of the internal gas, comprise the resistance to deformation of the microbubble. The finite element methodology, with B-splines as basis functions, is employed for the solution of the nonlinear static problem while Newton’s iterations provide the converged solution. The Jacobian matrix provides necessary information regarding stability of the emerging static configurations. The buckling instability of a uniformly loaded shell results in a subcritical bifurcation that is characterized by symmetric/asymmetric shapes for the parameter range pertaining to polymeric/phospholipid shells. As the relative importance of bending stiffness with respect to stretching decreases symmetric shapes determine the primary buckling instability. Strain softening shell behavior conforms to this pattern due to the increase of the effective area dilatation modulus during compression. Increasing the resistance to compression forces the asymmetric and symmetric solution families to terminate at larger bubble volumes. When a point load is considered the force deformation curve is characterized by a transition from a linear Reissner-type to a nonlinear Pogorelov-type response, followed by a regime where resistance to compression dominates. Identifying these regimes in atomic force microscopy measurements can be used for estimating the area dilatation and bending modulus of the shell.

  3. Understanding water extremes with caution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stehlík, Milan; Stehlíková, Silvia; Torres, Sebastián

    2016-06-01

    We discuss a sensitive topic, how to scientifically estimate extremes in water quality managements. Such extremes are incorporating establishment of thresholds or levels of certain chemicals in the drinking water. In particular, we address the water fluoridation and quality of drinking water in Chile. Statistical approaches demonstrating the necessary background of water manager will be given in a survey exposition to establish link between statistics of extremes and practice.

  4. Application of Model Based Parameter Estimation for RCS Frequency Response Calculations Using Method of Moments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reddy, C. J.

    1998-01-01

    An implementation of the Model Based Parameter Estimation (MBPE) technique is presented for obtaining the frequency response of the Radar Cross Section (RCS) of arbitrarily shaped, three-dimensional perfect electric conductor (PEC) bodies. An Electric Field Integral Equation (EFTE) is solved using the Method of Moments (MoM) to compute the RCS. The electric current is expanded in a rational function and the coefficients of the rational function are obtained using the frequency derivatives of the EFIE. Using the rational function, the electric current on the PEC body is obtained over a frequency band. Using the electric current at different frequencies, RCS of the PEC body is obtained over a wide frequency band. Numerical results for a square plate, a cube, and a sphere are presented over a bandwidth. Good agreement between MBPE and the exact solution over the bandwidth is observed.

  5. Reliable estimation of biochemical parameters from C3 leaf photosynthesis-intercellular carbon dioxide response curves

    SciTech Connect

    Wullschleger, Stan D; Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Tu, Kevin; Law, Beverly E.

    2010-01-01

    The Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry (FvCB) model of photosynthesis is a change-point model and structurally overparameterized for interpreting the response of leaf net assimilation (A) to intercellular CO{sub 2} concentration (Ci). The use of conventional fitting methods may lead not only to incorrect parameters but also several previously unrecognized consequences. For example, the relationships between key parameters may be fixed computationally and certain fits may be produced in which the estimated parameters result in contradictory identification of the limitation states of the data. Here we describe a new approach that is better suited to the FvCB model characteristics. It consists of four main steps: (1) enumeration of all possible distributions of limitation states; (2) fitting the FvCB model to each limitation state distribution by minimizing a distribution-wise cost function that has desirable properties for parameter estimation; (3) identification and correction of inadmissible fits; and (4) selection of the best fit from all possible limitation state distributions. The new approach implemented theoretical parameter resolvability with numerical procedures that maximally use the information content of the data. It was tested with model simulations, sampled A/Ci curves, and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements of different tree species. The new approach is accessible through the automated website leafweb.ornl.gov.

  6. Estimation and uncertainty analysis of dose response in an inter-laboratory experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toman, Blaza; Rösslein, Matthias; Elliott, John T.; Petersen, Elijah J.

    2016-02-01

    An inter-laboratory experiment for the evaluation of toxic effects of NH2-polystyrene nanoparticles on living human cancer cells was performed with five participating laboratories. Previously published results from nanocytoxicity assays are often contradictory, mostly due to challenges related to producing a reliable cytotoxicity assay protocol for use with nanomaterials. Specific challenges include reproducibility preparing nanoparticle dispersions, biological variability from testing living cell lines, and the potential for nano-related interference effects. In this experiment, such challenges were addressed by developing a detailed experimental protocol and using a specially designed 96-well plate layout which incorporated a range of control measurements to assess multiple factors such as nanomaterial interference, pipetting accuracy, cell seeding density, and instrument performance. Detailed data analysis of these control measurements showed that good control of the experiments was attained by all participants in most cases. The main measurement objective of the study was the estimation of a dose response relationship between concentration of the nanoparticles and metabolic activity of the living cells, under several experimental conditions. The dose curve estimation was achieved by imbedding a three parameter logistic curve in a three level Bayesian hierarchical model, accounting for uncertainty due to all known experimental conditions as well as between laboratory variability in a top-down manner. Computation was performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The fit of the model was evaluated using Bayesian posterior predictive probabilities and found to be satisfactory.

  7. Recovery of Graded Response Model Parameters: A Comparison of Marginal Maximum Likelihood and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kieftenbeld, Vincent; Natesan, Prathiba

    2012-01-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods enable a fully Bayesian approach to parameter estimation of item response models. In this simulation study, the authors compared the recovery of graded response model parameters using marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Gibbs sampling (MCMC) under various latent trait distributions, test lengths, and…

  8. Estimating Ordinal Reliability for Likert-Type and Ordinal Item Response Data: A Conceptual, Empirical, and Practical Guide

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gadermann, Anne M.; Guhn, Martin; Zumbo, Bruno D.

    2012-01-01

    This paper provides a conceptual, empirical, and practical guide for estimating ordinal reliability coefficients for ordinal item response data (also referred to as Likert, Likert-type, ordered categorical, or rating scale item responses). Conventionally, reliability coefficients, such as Cronbach's alpha, are calculated using a Pearson…

  9. The Effects on Parameter Estimation of Correlated Abilities Using a Two-Dimensional, Two-Parameter Logistic Item Response Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Batley, Rose-Marie; Boss, Marvin W.

    The effects of correlated dimensions on parameter estimation were assessed, using a two-dimensional item response theory model. Past research has shown the inadequacies of the unidimensional analysis of multidimensional item response data. However, few studies have reported multidimensional analysis of multidimensional data, and, in those using…

  10. Geomorphic response to an extreme flood in two mountain rivers (northeastern Sardinia, Italy): the role of geomorphic and hydraulic controlling factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Righini, Margherita; Surian, Nicola; Wohl, Ellen; Amponsah, William; Marchi, Lorenzo; Borga, Marco

    2016-04-01

    Geomorphic response to an extreme flood in two mountain rivers (northeastern Sardinia, Italy): the role of geomorphic and hydraulic controlling factors Margherita Righini (1), Nicola Surian (1), Ellen Wohl (2), William Amponsah (3, 4), Lorenzo Marchi (3), Marco Borga (4) (1) Department of Geosciences, University of Padova, Italy, (2) Department of Geosciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA, (3) CNR IRPI, Padova, Italy, (4) Department of Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry, University of Padova, Italy. The investigation of geomorphic effectiveness of extreme floods is crucial to improve tools for assessing channel dynamics and our capability of forecasting geomorphological hazard. This work deals with geomorphic response of two mountain rivers in the Posada catchment (northeastern Sardinia, Italy), considering a range of morphological (i.e., lateral channel confinement, channel gradient, channel sinuosity, sediment sources, and vegetation) and hydraulic variables (i.e., cross-sectional stream power, unit stream power, flow duration and total energy expenditure) as possible controlling factors. On November 18th 2013, northeastern Sardinia was affected by an extreme meteorological event with hourly rainfall intensities up to 100 mm/h and a peak in rain accumulation up to 450 mm in 24 hours, with 18 casualties and damages to infrastructure and buildings. In the Posada and Mannu di Bitti Rivers, the geomorphic response (i.e., bank erosion, channel aggradation and incision, vegetation and wood dynamics, hillslope failure) was analyzed at different spatial scales. The observed dominant geomorphic change was channel widening. Therefore, channel width changes have been analyzed in detail by remote sensing and GIS tools integrated by field surveys. The study focuses on reaches (i.e., 22.5 km in the Posada River, upstream of Maccheronis dam; 18.2 km in the Mannu di Bitti River) affected by evident and significant geomorphic responses in terms

  11. Terrestrial atmospheric responses on Svalbard to the 20 March 2015 Arctic total solar eclipse under extreme conditions.

    PubMed

    Pasachoff, J M; Peñaloza-Murillo, M A; Carter, A L; Roman, M T

    2016-09-28

    This article reports on the near-surface atmospheric response at the High Arctic site of Svalbard, latitude 78° N, as a result of abrupt changes in solar insolation during the 20 March 2015 equinox total solar eclipse and notifies the atmospheric science community of the availability of a rare dataset. Svalbard was central in the path of totality, and had completely clear skies. Measurements of shaded air temperature and atmospheric pressure show only weak, if any, responses to the reduced insolation. A minimum in the air temperature at 1.5 m above the ground occurred starting 2 min following the end of totality, though this drop was only slightly beyond the observed variability for the midday period. Eclipse-produced variations in surface pressure, if present, were less than 0.3 hPa.This article is part of the themed issue 'Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse'.

  12. The effect of rainfall and competition intensity on forest response to drought: lessons learned from a dry extreme.

    PubMed

    Dorman, Michael; Perevolotsky, Avi; Sarris, Dimitrios; Svoray, Tal

    2015-04-01

    We investigated forest responses to global warming by observing: (1) planted Pinus halepensis forests, (2) an aridity gradient-with annual precipitation (P) ranging from ~300 to ~700 mm, and (3) periods of wet and dry climate that included the driest period during at least the last 110 years. We examined: (1) how the length of climatic integration periods to which trees are most responsive varies in space and time, (2) the extent to which competition modulates growth decline during drought (2011) and subsequent recovery (2012) years. The temporal scale of rainfall that was most influential on growth shortened in progressing southward, and in the drier than in the wetter period. Long-term underground water storage, as reflected in the relationship of growth to multiple-year rainfall, remained significant up to the point where P ≈ 500 mm. Under drier conditions (P < 500 mm) in both space and time, influential rainfall scales shortened, probably reflecting a diminishing role of water storage. These drier locations are the first from which the species would be likely to retreat if global warming intensified. Competition appeared to set an upper limit to growth, while growth variation among individual trees increased as competition-intensity decreased. That upper limit increased in 2012 compared with 2011. The observed insensitivity of slow-growing trees to competition implies that mortality risk may be density independent, when even any potential for higher soil moisture availability in open stands is lost to evapotranspiration before it can benefit tree growth.

  13. Terrestrial atmospheric responses on Svalbard to the 20 March 2015 Arctic total solar eclipse under extreme conditions.

    PubMed

    Pasachoff, J M; Peñaloza-Murillo, M A; Carter, A L; Roman, M T

    2016-09-28

    This article reports on the near-surface atmospheric response at the High Arctic site of Svalbard, latitude 78° N, as a result of abrupt changes in solar insolation during the 20 March 2015 equinox total solar eclipse and notifies the atmospheric science community of the availability of a rare dataset. Svalbard was central in the path of totality, and had completely clear skies. Measurements of shaded air temperature and atmospheric pressure show only weak, if any, responses to the reduced insolation. A minimum in the air temperature at 1.5 m above the ground occurred starting 2 min following the end of totality, though this drop was only slightly beyond the observed variability for the midday period. Eclipse-produced variations in surface pressure, if present, were less than 0.3 hPa.This article is part of the themed issue 'Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse'. PMID:27550756

  14. An estimation of the yield and response functions for the mini neutron monitor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caballero-Lopez, R. A.

    2016-08-01

    The present study estimates the yield and response functions of the mini neutron monitor (miniNM). This relatively new cosmic ray detector is the mobile version of the standard NM64. It can be use not only to calibrate the NM64 but also to study the modulation processes. Due to its portability, the miniNM can be easily placed in a suitable location to measure secondary particles, which give information about the intensity variations of galactic and solar cosmic rays. In order to perform these modulation studies with miniNMs, it is crucial to know their sensitivity to detect secondary cosmic ray flux, i.e., we must know their yield function. A previous study found that miniNM and NM64 have slightly different response functions. This work analyzes the observed counting rate ratio (miniNM to NM64) and gives for the first time an useful expression for the yield function of the miniNM. The results found here will allow to interpret the new measurements with this mobile neutron monitor. For comparison, a brief summary of the NM64 yield functions reported by other authors is presented.

  15. Effects of gender and body weight on fibroblast growth factor 23 responsiveness to estimated dietary phosphorus.

    PubMed

    Ohta, Hiroyuki; Sakuma, Masae; Suzuki, Akitsu; Morimoto, Yuuka; Ishikawa, Makoto; Umeda, Minako; Arai, Hidekazu

    2016-01-01

    Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) is a molecule involved in regulating phosphorus homeostasis. Although some studies indicated an association between serum FGF23 levels and sex, the association has not been fully investigated. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether sex could influence FGF23 responsiveness to dietary phosphorus intake in healthy individuals. Thirty two healthy subjects between 21 and 28 years were recruited for this study. Subjects performed 24-hour urine collection and blood samples were collected. We estimated phosphorus intake (UC-P) from the urine collection (UC), and evaluated any association between UC-P and serum FGF23 levels. Subsequently, we compared serum FGF23 levels between males and females. Positive correlation was observed between UC-P and serum FGF23 levels. Serum FGF23 levels were significantly higher in males than in females. Serum FGF23 levels/UC-P was significantly higher in females than in males. There was no significant difference in serum FGF23 levels/UC-P/BW between the male and female groups. Our results indicate that there was no gender difference between FGF23 responsiveness to phosphorus intake per body weight.

  16. Biology and survival of extremely halophilic archaeon Haloarcula marismortui RR12 isolated from Mumbai salterns, India in response to salinity stress.

    PubMed

    Thombre, Rebecca S; Shinde, Vinaya D; Oke, Radhika S; Dhar, Sunil Kumar; Shouche, Yogesh S

    2016-01-01

    Haloarchaea are unique microorganism's resistant to environmental and osmotic stresses and thrive in their habitats despite extreme fluctuating salinities. In the present study, haloarchaea were isolated from hypersaline thalossohaline salterns of Bhandup, Mumbai, India and were identified as Haloferax prahovense, Haloferax alexandrines, Haloferax lucentense, Haloarcula tradensis, Haloarcula marismortui and Haloarcula argentinensis. The mechanism of adaptation to contrasting salinities (1.5 M and 4.5 M) was investigated in the extreme haloarchaeon, Hal. marismortui RR12. Hal. marismortui RR12 increased the intracellular sequestration of K(+) and Cl(-) ions in hypo salinity and hyper salinity respectively as detected by Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy microanalysis (EDAX) and Inductively Coupled Plasma- atomic Emission Spectroscopy (ICP-AES) indicating the presence of 'salt-in' strategy of osmoadaptation. As a cellular response to salinity stress, it produced small heat shock like proteins (sHSP) identified using MALDI-TOF MS and increased the production of protective red carotenoid pigment. This is the first report on the study of the concomitant cellular, molecular and physiological mechanism adapted by Hal. marismortui RR12 when exposed to contrasting salinities in external environment. PMID:27231230

  17. Biology and survival of extremely halophilic archaeon Haloarcula marismortui RR12 isolated from Mumbai salterns, India in response to salinity stress

    PubMed Central

    Thombre, Rebecca S.; Shinde, Vinaya D.; Oke, Radhika S.; Dhar, Sunil Kumar; Shouche, Yogesh S.

    2016-01-01

    Haloarchaea are unique microorganism’s resistant to environmental and osmotic stresses and thrive in their habitats despite extreme fluctuating salinities. In the present study, haloarchaea were isolated from hypersaline thalossohaline salterns of Bhandup, Mumbai, India and were identified as Haloferax prahovense, Haloferax alexandrines, Haloferax lucentense, Haloarcula tradensis, Haloarcula marismortui and Haloarcula argentinensis. The mechanism of adaptation to contrasting salinities (1.5 M and 4.5 M) was investigated in the extreme haloarchaeon, Hal. marismortui RR12. Hal. marismortui RR12 increased the intracellular sequestration of K+ and Cl− ions in hypo salinity and hyper salinity respectively as detected by Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy microanalysis (EDAX) and Inductively Coupled Plasma- atomic Emission Spectroscopy (ICP-AES) indicating the presence of ‘salt-in’ strategy of osmoadaptation. As a cellular response to salinity stress, it produced small heat shock like proteins (sHSP) identified using MALDI-TOF MS and increased the production of protective red carotenoid pigment. This is the first report on the study of the concomitant cellular, molecular and physiological mechanism adapted by Hal. marismortui RR12 when exposed to contrasting salinities in external environment. PMID:27231230

  18. Responses of an Amazonian teleost, the tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum), to low pH in extremely soft water.

    PubMed

    Wood, C M; Wilson, R W; Gonzalez, R J; Patrick, M L; Bergman, H L; Narahara, A; Val, A L

    1998-01-01

    Our goal was to compare the internal physiological responses to acid challenge in an acidophilic tropical teleost endemic to dilute low-pH waters with those in nonacidophilic temperate species such as salmonids, which have been the subjects of most previous investigations. The Amazonian tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum), which migrates between circumneutral water and dilute acidic "blackwater" of the Rio Negro, was exposed to a graded low-pH and recovery regime in representative soft water (Na+ = 15, Cl- = 16, Ca2+ = 20 mumol L-1). Fish were fitted with arterial catheters for repetitive blood sampling. Water pH was altered from 6.5 (control) to 5.0, 4.0, 3.0, and back to 6.5 (recovery) on successive days. Some deaths occurred at pH 3.0. Throughout the regime, there were no disturbances of blood gases (O2 and CO2 tensions and contents) or lactate levels, and only very minor changes in acid-base status of plasma and red cells. However, erythrocytic guanylate and adenylate levels increased at pH's less than or equal to 5.0. Down to pH 4.0, plasma glucose, cortisol, and total ammonia levels remained constant, but all increased at pH 3.0, denoting a stress response. Plasma Na+ and Cl- levels declined and plasma protein concentration increased at pH 3.0, indicative of ionoregulatory and fluid volume disturbance, and neither recovered upon return to pH 6.5. Cortisol and ammonia elevations also persisted. Transepithelial potential changed progressively from highly negative values (inside) at pH 6.5 to highly positive values at pH 3.0; these alterations were fully reversible. Experimental elevations in water calcium levels drove the transepithelial potential positive at circumneutral pH, attenuated or prevented changes in transepithelial potential at low pH, and reduced Na+ and Cl- loss rates to the water during acute low-pH challenges. In general, tambaqui exhibited responses to low pH that were qualitatively similar but quantitatively more resistant than those previously

  19. Estimation of muscle response using three-dimensional musculoskeletal models before impact situation: a simulation study.

    PubMed

    Bae, Tae Soo; Loan, Peter; Choi, Kuiwon; Hong, Daehie; Mun, Mu Seong

    2010-12-01

    When car crash experiments are performed using cadavers or dummies, the active muscles' reaction on crash situations cannot be observed. The aim of this study is to estimate muscles' response of the major muscle groups using three-dimensional musculoskeletal model by dynamic simulations of low-speed sled-impact. The three-dimensional musculoskeletal models of eight subjects were developed, including 241 degrees of freedom and 86 muscles. The muscle parameters considering limb lengths and the force-generating properties of the muscles were redefined by optimization to fit for each subject. Kinematic data and external forces measured by motion tracking system and dynamometer were then input as boundary conditions. Through a least-squares optimization algorithm, active muscles' responses were calculated during inverse dynamic analysis tracking the motion of each subject. Electromyography for major muscles at elbow, knee, and ankle joints was measured to validate each model. For low-speed sled-impact crash, experiment and simulation with optimized and unoptimized muscle parameters were performed at 9.4 m/h and 10 m/h and muscle activities were compared among them. The muscle activities with optimized parameters were closer to experimental measurements than the results without optimization. In addition, the extensor muscle activities at knee, ankle, and elbow joint were found considerably at impact time, unlike previous studies using cadaver or dummies. This study demonstrated the need to optimize the muscle parameters to predict impact situation correctly in computational studies using musculoskeletal models. And to improve accuracy of analysis for car crash injury using humanlike dummies, muscle reflex function, major extensor muscles' response at elbow, knee, and ankle joints, should be considered.

  20. Origin of the water vapor responsible for the European extreme rainfalls of August 2002: 1. High-resolution simulations and tracking of air masses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gangoiti, G.; SáEz de CáMara, E.; Alonso, L.; Navazo, M.; Gómez, M. C.; Iza, J.; GarcíA, J. A.; Ilardia, J. L.; MilláN, M. M.

    2011-11-01

    This article investigates an extreme rainfall event occurred over wide areas of central Europe on August 11-13, 2002. By using a synergistic approach that includes regional modeling, air mass tracking, and observational data sets, the importance of moisture accumulation processes in the Western Mediterranean basin (WMB) is acknowledged as an important mechanism responsible for the magnitude of this event. The RAMS-HYPACT modeling system is used to track air masses from potential marine sources of evaporation. MODIS water vapor products, wind profilers and surface rain gauge measurements are used to substantiate our simulations. Results show that most of the precipitation occurring in central Europe during the initiation of the rainfall episode (August 11) came from vapor accumulated over 4 days (August 6-9) within the WMB: the vapor was transported, after the irruption of the Vb cyclone Ilse, through the Italian Peninsula and the Adriatic Sea, into the target area, causing the precipitation episode. On August 12 and 13 the marine sources of evaporation changed to include the north-Atlantic region. The north-African convergence region, the eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea are revealed to be sources more related to the intense rainfall experienced in eastern Europe. The subsidence-related processes through which pollutants and water vapor can accumulate for several days in the WMB are shown to be very relevant for this event. The quantification of the evaporative sources, responsible for the extreme rainfall events in central Europe, and the relative importance of marine and terrestrial sources within a chosen regional domain are discussed in the companion following article.

  1. Responses of the bed bug, Cimex lectularius, to temperature extremes and dehydration: levels of tolerance, rapid cold hardening and expression of heat shock proteins.

    PubMed

    Benoit, J B; Lopez-Martinez, G; Teets, N M; Phillips, S A; Denlinger, D L

    2009-12-01

    This study of the bed bug, Cimex lectularius, examines tolerance of adult females to extremes in temperature and loss of body water. Although the supercooling point (SCP) of the bed bugs was approximately -20 degrees C, all were killed by a direct 1 h exposure to -16 degrees C. Thus, this species cannot tolerate freezing and is killed at temperatures well above its SCP. Neither cold acclimation at 4 degrees C for 2 weeks nor dehydration (15% loss of water content) enhanced cold tolerance. However, bed bugs have the capacity for rapid cold hardening, i.e. a 1-h exposure to 0 degrees C improved their subsequent tolerance of -14 and -16 degrees C. In response to heat stress, fewer than 20% of the bugs survived a 1-h exposure to 46 degrees C, and nearly all were killed at 48 degrees C. Dehydration, heat acclimation at 30 degrees C for 2 weeks and rapid heat hardening at 37 degrees C for 1 h all failed to improve heat tolerance. Expression of the mRNAs encoding two heat shock proteins (Hsps), Hsp70 and Hsp90, was elevated in response to heat stress, cold stress and during dehydration and rehydration. The response of Hsp90 was more pronounced than that of Hsp70 during dehydration and rehydration. Our results define the tolerance limits for bed bugs to these commonly encountered stresses of temperature and low humidity and indicate a role for Hsps in responding to these stresses. PMID:19941608

  2. Responses of the bed bug, Cimex lectularius, to temperature extremes and dehydration: levels of tolerance, rapid cold hardening and expression of heat shock proteins.

    PubMed

    Benoit, J B; Lopez-Martinez, G; Teets, N M; Phillips, S A; Denlinger, D L

    2009-12-01

    This study of the bed bug, Cimex lectularius, examines tolerance of adult females to extremes in temperature and loss of body water. Although the supercooling point (SCP) of the bed bugs was approximately -20 degrees C, all were killed by a direct 1 h exposure to -16 degrees C. Thus, this species cannot tolerate freezing and is killed at temperatures well above its SCP. Neither cold acclimation at 4 degrees C for 2 weeks nor dehydration (15% loss of water content) enhanced cold tolerance. However, bed bugs have the capacity for rapid cold hardening, i.e. a 1-h exposure to 0 degrees C improved their subsequent tolerance of -14 and -16 degrees C. In response to heat stress, fewer than 20% of the bugs survived a 1-h exposure to 46 degrees C, and nearly all were killed at 48 degrees C. Dehydration, heat acclimation at 30 degrees C for 2 weeks and rapid heat hardening at 37 degrees C for 1 h all failed to improve heat tolerance. Expression of the mRNAs encoding two heat shock proteins (Hsps), Hsp70 and Hsp90, was elevated in response to heat stress, cold stress and during dehydration and rehydration. The response of Hsp90 was more pronounced than that of Hsp70 during dehydration and rehydration. Our results define the tolerance limits for bed bugs to these commonly encountered stresses of temperature and low humidity and indicate a role for Hsps in responding to these stresses.

  3. Scenario based tsunami wave height estimation towards hazard evaluation for the Hellenic coastline and examples of extreme inundation zones in South Aegean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melis, Nikolaos S.; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Frentzos, Elias; Krassanakis, Vassilios

    2016-04-01

    A scenario based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment is used, by incorporating earthquake sources with the potential to produce extreme tsunamis (measured through their capacity to cause maximum wave height and inundation extent). In the present study we follow a two phase approach. In the first phase, existing earthquake hazard zoning in the greater Aegean region is used to derive representative maximum expected earthquake magnitude events, with realistic seismotectonic source characteristics, and of greatest tsunamigenic potential within each zone. By stacking the scenario produced maximum wave heights a global maximum map is constructed for the entire Hellenic coastline, corresponding to all expected extreme offshore earthquake sources. Further evaluation of the produced coastline categories based on the maximum expected wave heights emphasizes the tsunami hazard in selected coastal zones with important functions (i.e. touristic crowded zones, industrial zones, airports, power plants etc). Owing to its proximity to the Hellenic Arc, many urban centres and being a popular tourist destination, Crete Island and the South Aegean region are given a top priority to define extreme inundation zoning. In the second phase, a set of four large coastal cities (Kalamata, Chania, Heraklion and Rethymno), important for tsunami hazard, due i.e. to the crowded beaches during the summer season or industrial facilities, are explored towards preparedness and resilience for tsunami hazard in Greece. To simulate tsunamis in the Aegean region (generation, propagation and runup) the MOST - ComMIT NOAA code was used. High resolution DEMs for bathymetry and topography were joined via an interface, specifically developed for the inundation maps in this study and with similar products in mind. For the examples explored in the present study, we used 5m resolution for the topography and 30m resolution for the bathymetry, respectively. Although this study can be considered as

  4. Point: Clarifying Policy Evidence With Potential-Outcomes Thinking—Beyond Exposure-Response Estimation in Air Pollution Epidemiology

    PubMed Central

    Zigler, Corwin Matthew; Dominici, Francesca

    2014-01-01

    The regulatory environment surrounding policies to control air pollution warrants a new type of epidemiologic evidence. Whereas air pollution epidemiology has typically informed policies with estimates of exposure-response relationships between pollution and health outcomes, these estimates alone cannot support current debates surrounding the actual health effects of air quality regulations. We argue that directly evaluating specific control strategies is distinct from estimating exposure-response relationships and that increased emphasis on estimating effects of well-defined regulatory interventions would enhance the evidence that supports policy decisions. Appealing to similar calls for accountability assessment of whether regulatory actions impact health outcomes, we aim to sharpen the analytic distinctions between studies that directly evaluate policies and those that estimate exposure-response relationships, with particular focus on perspectives for causal inference. Our goal is not to review specific methodologies or studies, nor is it to extoll the advantages of “causal” versus “associational” evidence. Rather, we argue that potential-outcomes perspectives can elevate current policy debates with more direct evidence of the extent to which complex regulatory interventions affect health. Augmenting the existing body of exposure-response estimates with rigorous evidence of the causal effects of well-defined actions will ensure that the highest-level epidemiologic evidence continues to support regulatory policies. PMID:25399414

  5. Point: clarifying policy evidence with potential-outcomes thinking--beyond exposure-response estimation in air pollution epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Zigler, Corwin Matthew; Dominici, Francesca

    2014-12-15

    The regulatory environment surrounding policies to control air pollution warrants a new type of epidemiologic evidence. Whereas air pollution epidemiology has typically informed policies with estimates of exposure-response relationships between pollution and health outcomes, these estimates alone cannot support current debates surrounding the actual health effects of air quality regulations. We argue that directly evaluating specific control strategies is distinct from estimating exposure-response relationships and that increased emphasis on estimating effects of well-defined regulatory interventions would enhance the evidence that supports policy decisions. Appealing to similar calls for accountability assessment of whether regulatory actions impact health outcomes, we aim to sharpen the analytic distinctions between studies that directly evaluate policies and those that estimate exposure-response relationships, with particular focus on perspectives for causal inference. Our goal is not to review specific methodologies or studies, nor is it to extoll the advantages of "causal" versus "associational" evidence. Rather, we argue that potential-outcomes perspectives can elevate current policy debates with more direct evidence of the extent to which complex regulatory interventions affect health. Augmenting the existing body of exposure-response estimates with rigorous evidence of the causal effects of well-defined actions will ensure that the highest-level epidemiologic evidence continues to support regulatory policies.

  6. Codon 104 variation of p53 gene provides adaptive apoptotic responses to extreme environments in mammals of the Tibet plateau.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Yang; Ren, Ji-Long; Wang, Ming-Yang; Zhang, Sheng-Ting; Liu, Yu; Li, Min; Cao, Yi-Bin; Zu, Hu-Yue; Chen, Xiao-Cheng; Wu, Chung-I; Nevo, Eviatar; Chen, Xue-Qun; Du, Ji-Zeng

    2013-12-17

    Mutational changes in p53 correlate well with tumorigenesis. Remarkably, however, relatively little is known about the role that p53 variations may play in environmental adaptation. Here we report that codon asparagine-104 (104N) and glutamic acid-104 (104E), respectively, of the p53 gene in the wild zokor (Myospalax baileyi) and root vole (Microtus oeconomus) are adaptively variable, meeting the environmental stresses of the Tibetan plateau. They differ from serine-104 (104S) seen in other rodents, including the lowland subterranean zokor Myospalax cansus, and from serine 106 (106S) in humans. Based on site-directed mutational analysis in human cell lines, the codon 104N variation in M. baileyi is responsible for the adaptive balance of the transactivation of apoptotic genes under hypoxia, cold, and acidic stresses. The 104E p53 variant in Microtus oeconomus suppresses apoptotic gene transactivation and cell apoptosis. Neither 104N nor 104E affects the cell-cycle genes. We propose that these variations in p53 codon 104 are an outcome of environmental adaptation and evolutionary selection that enhance cellular strategies for surviving the environmental stresses of hypoxia and cold (in M. baileyi and M. oeconomus) and hypercapnia (in M. baileyi) in the stressful environments of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau. PMID:24297887

  7. Photoprotective Response in Plants Impacts Estimation of Biophysical Parameters Using Spectral Reflectance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zygielbaum, A. I.; Arkebauer, T. J.; Walter-Shea, E.

    2014-12-01

    Previously, we reported that reflectance increased across the whole PAR spectrum when plants were subjected to water stress. This effect was shown to exist in maize grown under greenhouse conditions and under field conditions. Greenhouse experiments showed that, in addition to leaf water content, the effect was strongly correlated with incident light intensity. Further, through the use of an integrating sphere, we demonstrated that the change in reflectance was due to a change in absorption rather than in a change scattering or other optical path effect. Time lapse microscopy showed lightening between leaf veins analogous to effects measured by researchers observing cross sections of stressed C4 plants. To further refine our study, additional leaf level and canopy level studies were undertaken. Excised leaf sections were separately exposed to red and white light in the laboratory as the leaf dried. Increasing reflectance and transmittance were observed for the section exposed to white light, while little change was observed under red light. Each of these observations can be explained by chloroplast avoidance movement, a photoprotective response causing chloroplasts to aggregate along cell walls effectively hiding chlorophyll from observation. Chloroplast movement, for example, is driven by blue light; explaining the lack of observed change under red light. Estimation of biophysical parameters, such as chlorophyll content and greenness, are affected by the difference between the "apparent" chlorophyll content and the actual chlorophyll content of leaves and canopies. Up to 30% changes in the VARI remote sensing index have been observed morning to afternoon in field-grown maize. Ten percent changes in chlorophyll estimates have been observed in greenhouse maize. We will report on further research and on the extension of our work to include the impact of chloroplast avoidance on remote sensing of C3 plants, specifically soybean, at leaf and canopy levels.

  8. Estimating the prevalence of sensitive behaviour and cheating with a dual design for direct questioning and randomized response.

    PubMed

    van den Hout, Ardo; Böckenholt, Ulf; van der Heijden, Peter G M

    2010-08-01

    Randomized response is a misclassification design to estimate the prevalence of sensitive behaviour. Respondents who do not follow the instructions of the design are considered to be cheating. A mixture model is proposed to estimate the prevalence of sensitive behaviour and cheating in the case of a dual sampling scheme with direct questioning and randomized response. The mixing weight is the probability of cheating, where cheating is modelled separately for direct questioning and randomized response. For Bayesian inference, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling is applied to sample parameter values from the posterior. The model makes it possible to analyse dual sample scheme data in a unified way and to assess cheating for direct questions as well as for randomized response questions. The research is illustrated with randomized response data concerning violations of regulations for social benefit.

  9. Women in extreme poverty.

    PubMed

    1994-01-01

    Population is estimated to increase from 5.5 billion in 1990 to 10 billion by 2050; the poverty level is expected to increase from 1 billion to 2-3 billion people. Women in development has been promoted throughout the UN and development system, but women in poverty who perform work in the informal sector are still uncounted, and solutions are elusive. The issue of extreme poverty can not be approached as just another natural disaster with immediate emergency relief. Many people live in precarious economic circumstances throughout their lives. Recent research reveals a greater understanding of the underlying causes and the need for inclusion of poor women in sustainable development. Sanitation, water, housing, health facilities need to be improved. Women must have access to education, opportunities for trading, and loans on reasonable terms. UNESCO makes available a book on survival strategies for poor women in the informal sector. The profile shows common problems of illiteracy, broken marriages, and full time involvement in provision of subsistence level existence. Existence is a fragile balance. Jeanne Vickers' "Women and the World" offers simple, low cost interventions for aiding extremely poor women. The 1992 Commission on the Status of Women was held in Vienna. Excerpts from several speeches are provided. The emphasis is on some global responses and an analysis of solutions. The recommendation is for attention to the gender dimension of poverty. Women's dual role contributes to greater disadvantages. Women are affected differently by macroeconomic factors, and that there is intergenerational transfer of poverty. Social services should be viewed as investments and directed to easing the burdens on time and energy. Public programs must be equipped to deal with poverty and to bring about social and economic change. Programs must be aware of the different distribution of resources within households. Women must be recognized as principal economic providers within

  10. Structural Equation Model Approach to the Use of Response Times for Improving Estimation in Item Response Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sen, Rohini

    2012-01-01

    In the last five decades, research on the uses of response time has extended into the field of psychometrics (Schnikpe & Scrams, 1999; van der Linden, 2006; van der Linden, 2007), where interest has centered around the usefulness of response time information in item calibration and person measurement within an item response theory. framework.…

  11. The influence of different Stop-signal response time estimation procedures on behavior-behavior and brain-behavior correlations.

    PubMed

    Boehler, C Nicolas; Appelbaum, L Gregory; Krebs, Ruth M; Hopf, Jens-Max; Woldorff, Marty G

    2012-04-01

    The fundamental cognitive-control function of inhibitory control over motor behavior has been extensively investigated using the Stop-signal task. The critical behavioral parameter describing stopping efficacy is the Stop-signal response time (SSRT), and correlations with estimates of this parameter are commonly used to establish that other variables (e.g., other behavioral measures or brain activity measures) are closely related to inhibitory motor control. Recently, however, it has been argued that SSRT estimates can be strongly distorted if participants strategically slow down their responses over the course of the experiment, resulting in the SSRT no longer reliably representing response-inhibition efficacy. Here, we performed new analyses on behavioral and functional data from an fMRI version of the Stop-signal task to gauge the consequences of using different SSRT estimation approaches that are differentially prone to the influence of strategic response slowing. The results indicate that the SSRT estimation approach can dramatically change behavior-behavior correlations. Specifically, a correlation between the SSRT and Go-trial accuracy that was highly significant with one estimation approach, virtually disappeared for the other. Additional analyses indeed supported that this effect was related to strategic response slowing. Concerning brain-behavior correlations, only the left anterior insula was found to be significantly correlated with the SSRT within the set of areas tested here. Interestingly, this brain-behavior correlation differed little for the different SSRT-estimation procedures. In sum, the current results highlight that different SSRT-estimation procedures can strongly influence the distribution of SSRT values across subjects, which in turn can ramify into correlational analyses with other parameters. PMID:22245527

  12. The influence of different Stop-signal response time estimation procedures on behavior-behavior and brain-behavior correlations.

    PubMed

    Boehler, C Nicolas; Appelbaum, L Gregory; Krebs, Ruth M; Hopf, Jens-Max; Woldorff, Marty G

    2012-04-01

    The fundamental cognitive-control function of inhibitory control over motor behavior has been extensively investigated using the Stop-signal task. The critical behavioral parameter describing stopping efficacy is the Stop-signal response time (SSRT), and correlations with estimates of this parameter are commonly used to establish that other variables (e.g., other behavioral measures or brain activity measures) are closely related to inhibitory motor control. Recently, however, it has been argued that SSRT estimates can be strongly distorted if participants strategically slow down their responses over the course of the experiment, resulting in the SSRT no longer reliably representing response-inhibition efficacy. Here, we performed new analyses on behavioral and functional data from an fMRI version of the Stop-signal task to gauge the consequences of using different SSRT estimation approaches that are differentially prone to the influence of strategic response slowing. The results indicate that the SSRT estimation approach can dramatically change behavior-behavior correlations. Specifically, a correlation between the SSRT and Go-trial accuracy that was highly significant with one estimation approach, virtually disappeared for the other. Additional analyses indeed supported that this effect was related to strategic response slowing. Concerning brain-behavior correlations, only the left anterior insula was found to be significantly correlated with the SSRT within the set of areas tested here. Interestingly, this brain-behavior correlation differed little for the different SSRT-estimation procedures. In sum, the current results highlight that different SSRT-estimation procedures can strongly influence the distribution of SSRT values across subjects, which in turn can ramify into correlational analyses with other parameters.

  13. Auditory brainstem responses in the Eastern Screech Owl: An estimate of auditory thresholds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brittan-Powell, Elizabeth F.; Lohr, Bernard; Hahn, D. Caldwell; Dooling, Robert J.

    2005-07-01

    The auditory brainstem response (ABR), a measure of neural synchrony, was used to estimate auditory sensitivity in the eastern screech owl (Megascops asio). The typical screech owl ABR waveform showed two to three prominent peaks occurring within 5 ms of stimulus onset. As sound pressure levels increased, the ABR peak amplitude increased and latency decreased. With an increasing stimulus presentation rate, ABR peak amplitude decreased and latency increased. Generally, changes in the ABR waveform to stimulus intensity and repetition rate are consistent with the pattern found in several avian families. The ABR audiogram shows that screech owls hear best between 1.5 and 6.4 kHz with the most acute sensitivity between 4-5.7 kHz. The shape of the average screech owl ABR audiogram is similar to the shape of the behaviorally measured audiogram of the barn owl, except at the highest frequencies. Our data also show differences in overall auditory sensitivity between the color morphs of screech owls.

  14. A new approach for estimating groundwater table fluctuation response to rainfall events in North China Plain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Z.; Xie, X.; Ma, Z.

    2015-12-01

    A rise or decline in water table in response to water budget is a function of rainfall volume and groundwater depletion intensity. Most research have focus on estimating water table fluctuations among various shallow aquifer resulting from recharge and discharge change, however, the methods commonly applied are limited in that the subsurface system is more complex. In this paper, a reliable approach based on statistics theory is presented for quantifying the correlation relationship among water table, rainfall events and groundwater depletion process. The detail monitoring data are used to multivariate regression analysis and established the relationship model between water table and groundwater depletion in the proposed method. We further employed the model to obtain water table fluctuation trend with manual controlled depletion in different rainfall conditions. We also identify how this model applied to North China Plain and examine the water table error. The results show that controlling the depletion process based on different rainfall frequency can promote groundwater table recover and the model can provide a reliable method to groundwater management.

  15. Auditory brainstem responses in the Eastern Screech Owl: An estimate of auditory thresholds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brittan-Powell, E.F.; Lohr, B.; Hahn, D.C.; Dooling, R.J.

    2005-01-01

    The auditory brainstem response (ABR), a measure of neural synchrony, was used to estimate auditory sensitivity in the eastern screech owl (Megascops asio). The typical screech owl ABR waveform showed two to three prominent peaks occurring within 5 ms of stimulus onset. As sound pressure levels increased, the ABR peak amplitude increased and latency decreased. With an increasing stimulus presentation rate, ABR peak amplitude decreased and latency increased. Generally, changes in the ABR waveform to stimulus intensity and repetition rate are consistent with the pattern found in several avian families. The ABR audiogram shows that screech owls hear best between 1.5 and 6.4 kHz with the most acute sensitivity between 4?5.7 kHz. The shape of the average screech owl ABR audiogram is similar to the shape of the behaviorally measured audiogram of the barn owl, except at the highest frequencies. Our data also show differences in overall auditory sensitivity between the color morphs of screech owls.

  16. Representing Extremes in Agricultural Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex

    2015-01-01

    AgMIP and related projects are conducting several activities to understand and improve crop model response to extreme events. This involves crop model studies as well as the generation of climate datasets and scenarios more capable of capturing extremes. Models are typically less responsive to extreme events than we observe, and miss several forms of extreme events. Models also can capture interactive effects between climate change and climate extremes. Additional work is needed to understand response of markets and economic systems to food shocks. AgMIP is planning a Coordinated Global and Regional Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Food Security with an aim to inform the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

  17. Is the assumption of normality or log-normality for continuous response data critical for benchmark dose estimation?

    PubMed

    Shao, Kan; Gift, Jeffrey S; Setzer, R Woodrow

    2013-11-01

    Continuous responses (e.g. body weight) are widely used in risk assessment for determining the benchmark dose (BMD) which is used to derive a U.S. EPA reference dose. One critical question that is not often addressed in dose-response assessments is whether to model the continuous data as normally or log-normally distributed. Additionally, if lognormality is assumed, and only summarized response data (i.e., mean±standard deviation) are available as is usual in the peer-reviewed literature, the BMD can only be approximated. In this study, using the "hybrid" method and relative deviation approach, we first evaluate six representative continuous dose-response datasets reporting individual animal responses to investigate the impact on BMD/BMDL estimates of (1) the distribution assumption and (2) the use of summarized versus individual animal data when a log-normal distribution is assumed. We also conduct simulation studies evaluating model fits to various known distributions to investigate whether the distribution assumption has influence on BMD/BMDL estimates. Our results indicate that BMDs estimated using the hybrid method are more sensitive to the distribution assumption than counterpart BMDs estimated using the relative deviation approach. The choice of distribution assumption has limited impact on the BMD/BMDL estimates when the within dose-group variance is small, while the lognormality assumption is a better choice for relative deviation method when data are more skewed because of its appropriateness in describing the relationship between mean and standard deviation. Additionally, the results suggest that the use of summarized data versus individual response data to characterize log-normal distributions has minimal impact on BMD estimates.

  18. Eastern Australian Coastal Behaviour in Response to Extreme Storm Climate Between 1600-1900 AD, Determined from a Coupled Climate Reconstruction and Coastal Morphodynamic Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodwin, I. D.; Browning, S. A.; Mortlock, T.

    2014-12-01

    A sustained morphodynamic reorganisation of the east Australian coast occurred over a large latitudinal gradient from subtropical Queensland (S 25°) to mid-latitude Bass Strait (S 40°) between ~1600 to 1900 CE. These changes indicate that a large-scale shift in the modal climate occurred together with changes in extreme storm frequency or clustering of East Coast Cyclones (ECC), when compared to the past century. ECC are complex subtropical weather systems that form off the east coast of Australia and/or travel parallel to the coast of Australia from south-east Queensland to Victoria. We investigate coastal evolution and the associated climate drivers using a novel combination of methods, including: LIDAR DEM and field mapping of coastal geology; a decadal-scale climate reconstruction of sea-level pressure, marine windfields, and paleo-storm synoptic type and frequency, using a paleoclimate data assimilation approach; together with wave transformation and coastal planform modelling for paleo-wave directions, and historical bathymetry. We present the morphodynamic response to changes in directional wave power, by linking the paleo-windfield reconstruction to wave transformation models. The combined methodology has illuminated the 'ultimate' storm impacts not seen in the past century, and defines the multi-decadal coastal system response and recovery to extreme storm sequences. Increased embaymentisation and anticlockwise rotation of embayed and barrier coast planform geometry; shifts in barrier-estuary-inlet configuration; and a ubiquitous foredune transgression, are shown to have occurred between ~1600 to 1800 CE. This was in response to a poleward shift in the subtropics and frequency of tradewind-driven wave climate, and tropical-origin storms. From 1800 to 1900 CE, an equatorward shift in the subtropics, and clustering of extratropical-origin storms drove an increase in the shoreface-littoral sediment budget and a clockwise coastline progradation. This

  19. The impact of reflectivity correction and conversion methods to improve precipitation estimation by weather radar for an extreme low-land Mesoscale Convective System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2014-05-01

    Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands. For most of the country this led to over 15 hours of near-continuous precipitation, which resulted in total event accumulations exceeding 150 mm in the eastern part of the Netherlands. Such accumulations belong to the largest sums ever recorded in this country and gave rise to local flooding. Measuring precipitation by weather radar within such mesoscale convective systems is known to be a challenge, since measurements are affected by multiple sources of error. For the current event the operational weather radar rainfall product only estimated about 30% of the actual amount of precipitation as measured by rain gauges. In the current presentation we will try to identify what gave rise to such large underestimations. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two different groups: 1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements taken, and 2) errors related to the conversion of reflectivity values in rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates. To correct for the first group of errors, the quality of the weather radar reflectivity data was improved by successively correcting for 1) clutter and anomalous propagation, 2) radar calibration, 3) wet radome attenuation, 4) signal attenuation and 5) the vertical profile of reflectivity. Such consistent corrections are generally not performed by operational meteorological services. Results show a large improvement in the quality of the precipitation data, however still only ~65% of the actual observed accumulations was estimated. To further improve the quality of the precipitation estimates, the second group of errors are corrected for by making use of disdrometer measurements taken in close vicinity of the radar. Based on these data the parameters of a normalized drop size distribution are estimated for the total event as well as for each precipitation type separately (convective

  20. Using Data Augmentation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo for the Estimation of Unfolding Response Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Matthew S.; Junker, Brian W.

    2003-01-01

    Unfolding response models, a class of item response theory (IRT) models that assume a unimodal item response function (IRF), are often used for the measurement of attitudes. Verhelst and Verstralen (1993)and Andrich and Luo (1993) independently developed unfolding response models by relating the observed responses to a more common monotone IRT…

  1. Ventilatory and metabolic responses of burrowing owls, Athene cunicularia, to moderate and extreme hypoxia: analysis of the hypoxic ventilatory threshold vs. hemoglobin oxygen affinity relationship in birds.

    PubMed

    Kilgore, Delbert L; Boggs, Dona F; Kilgore, Trevor J; Colby, Conrad; Williams, Burl R; Bavis, Ryan W

    2008-06-01

    We measured ventilation, oxygen consumption and blood gases in burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) breathing moderate and extreme hypoxic gas mixtures to determine their hypoxic ventilatory threshold (HVT) and to assess if they, like other birds and mammals, exhibit a relationship between HVT and hemoglobin O2 affinity (P(50)) of their blood. An earlier report of an attenuated ventilatory responsiveness of this species to hypoxia was enigmatic given the low O2 affinity (high P(50)) of burrowing owl hemoglobin. In the current study, burrowing owls breathing 11% and 9% O2 showed a significantly elevated total ventilation. The arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2) at which ventilation is elevated above normoxic values in burrowing owls was 58 mm Hg. This threshold value conforms well to expectations based on the high P(50) of their hemoglobin and the HVT vs. P(50) relationship for birds developed in this study. Correcting for phylogenetic relatedness in the multi-species analysis had no effect on the HVT vs. P(50) relationship. Also, because burrowing owls in this study did not show a hypometabolic response at any level of hypoxia (even at 9% O2); HVT described in terms of percent change in oxygen convection requirement is identical to that based on ventilation alone. PMID:17561426

  2. Exome sequencing of extreme clopidogrel response phenotypes identifies B4GALT2 as a determinant of on-treatment platelet reactivity.

    PubMed

    Scott, S A; Collet, J-P; Baber, U; Yang, Y; Peter, I; Linderman, M; Sload, J; Qiao, W; Kini, A S; Sharma, S K; Desnick, R J; Fuster, V; Hajjar, R J; Montalescot, G; Hulot, J-S

    2016-09-01

    Interindividual variability in platelet aggregation is common among patients treated with clopidogrel and both high on-treatment platelet reactivity (HTPR) and low on-treatment platelet reactivity (LTPR) increase risks for adverse clinical outcomes. CYP2C19 influences clopidogrel response but only accounts for ∼12% of the variability in platelet reactivity. To identify novel variants implicated in on-treatment platelet reactivity, patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) with extreme pharmacodynamic responses to clopidogrel and wild-type CYP2C19 were subjected to exome sequencing. Candidate variants that clustered in the LTPR subgroup subsequently were genotyped across the discovery cohort (n = 636). Importantly, carriers of B4GALT2 c.909C>T had lower on-treatment P2Y12 reaction units (PRUs; P = 0.0077) and residual platelet aggregation (P = 0.0008) compared with noncarriers, which remained significant after adjusting for CYP2C19 and other clinical variables in both the discovery (P = 0.0298) and replication (n = 160; PRU: P = 0.0001) cohorts. B4GALT2 is a platelet-expressed galactosyltransferase, indicating that B4GALT2 c.909C>T may influence clopidogrel sensitivity through atypical cell-surface glycoprotein processing and platelet adhesion.

  3. Ventilatory and metabolic responses of burrowing owls, Athene cunicularia, to moderate and extreme hypoxia: analysis of the hypoxic ventilatory threshold vs. hemoglobin oxygen affinity relationship in birds.

    PubMed

    Kilgore, Delbert L; Boggs, Dona F; Kilgore, Trevor J; Colby, Conrad; Williams, Burl R; Bavis, Ryan W

    2008-06-01

    We measured ventilation, oxygen consumption and blood gases in burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) breathing moderate and extreme hypoxic gas mixtures to determine their hypoxic ventilatory threshold (HVT) and to assess if they, like other birds and mammals, exhibit a relationship between HVT and hemoglobin O2 affinity (P(50)) of their blood. An earlier report of an attenuated ventilatory responsiveness of this species to hypoxia was enigmatic given the low O2 affinity (high P(50)) of burrowing owl hemoglobin. In the current study, burrowing owls breathing 11% and 9% O2 showed a significantly elevated total ventilation. The arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2) at which ventilation is elevated above normoxic values in burrowing owls was 58 mm Hg. This threshold value conforms well to expectations based on the high P(50) of their hemoglobin and the HVT vs. P(50) relationship for birds developed in this study. Correcting for phylogenetic relatedness in the multi-species analysis had no effect on the HVT vs. P(50) relationship. Also, because burrowing owls in this study did not show a hypometabolic response at any level of hypoxia (even at 9% O2); HVT described in terms of percent change in oxygen convection requirement is identical to that based on ventilation alone.

  4. Extremely high copy numbers and polymorphisms of the rDNA operon estimated from single cell analysis of oligotrich and peritrich ciliates.

    PubMed

    Gong, Jun; Dong, Jun; Liu, Xihan; Massana, Ramon

    2013-05-01

    The copy number and sequence variation of the ribosomal DNA (rDNA) operon are of functional significance in evolution and ecology of organisms. However, the relationship between copy number and sequence variation of rDNA in protists has been rarely studied. Here we quantified rDNA copy numbers of oligotrich and peritrich ciliate species using single-cell quantitative PCR. We also examined the rDNA sequence variation by using single-cell PCR, cloning, and sequencing of multiple clones. We found that the rDNA copy numbers per cell were extremely high and different among even congeners, with the highest record of about 310,000. There was substantial intraindividual haplotype diversity and nucleotide diversity for the rDNA markers, with sequence differences primarily characterized by single nucleotide polymorphisms. Haplotype and nucleotide diversity was positively correlated to the rDNA copy number. Our findings provide evidence that: (1) ciliates generally have much higher rDNA copy numbers than other protists and fungi, which could lead to overestimation of the relative abundance of ciliates in environmental samples when rDNA sequence-based methodologies are used; and that (2) the rDNA might not always evolve in a strictly concerted manner in ciliates, which may raise problems in rDNA-based inference of species richness and phylogeny.

  5. Precision Interval Estimation of the Response Surface by Means of an Integrated Algorithm of Neural Network and Linear Regression

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lo, Ching F.

    1999-01-01

    The integration of Radial Basis Function Networks and Back Propagation Neural Networks with the Multiple Linear Regression has been accomplished to map nonlinear response surfaces over a wide range of independent variables in the process of the Modem Design of Experiments. The integrated method is capable to estimate the precision intervals including confidence and predicted intervals. The power of the innovative method has been demonstrated by applying to a set of wind tunnel test data in construction of response surface and estimation of precision interval.

  6. How Extreme Temperatures Impact Organisms and the Evolution of their Thermal Tolerance.

    PubMed

    Buckley, Lauren B; Huey, Raymond B

    2016-07-01

    SynopsisUnderstanding the biological impacts of extreme temperatures requires translating meteorological estimates into organismal responses, but that translation is complex. In general, the physiological stress induced by a given thermal extreme should increase with the extreme's magnitude and duration, though acclimation may buffer that stress. However, organisms can differ strikingly in their exposure to and tolerance of a given extreme temperatures. Moreover, their sensitivity to extremes can vary during ontogeny, across seasons, and among species; and that sensitivity and its variation should be subject to selection. We use a simple quantitative genetic model and demonstrate that thermal extremes-even when at low frequency-can substantially influence the evolution of thermal sensitivity, particularly when the extremes cause mortality or persistent physiological injury, or when organisms are unable to use behavior to buffer exposure to extremes. Thermal extremes can drive organisms in temperate and tropical sites to have similar thermal tolerances despite major differences in mean temperatures. Indeed, the model correctly predicts that Australian Drosophila should have shallower latitudinal gradients in thermal tolerance than would be expected based only on gradients in mean conditions. Predicting responses to climate change requires understanding not only how past selection to tolerate thermal extremes has helped establish existing geographic gradients in thermal tolerances, but also how increasing the incidence of thermal extremes will alter geographic gradients in the future. PMID:27126981

  7. How Extreme Temperatures Impact Organisms and the Evolution of their Thermal Tolerance.

    PubMed

    Buckley, Lauren B; Huey, Raymond B

    2016-07-01

    SynopsisUnderstanding the biological impacts of extreme temperatures requires translating meteorological estimates into organismal responses, but that translation is complex. In general, the physiological stress induced by a given thermal extreme should increase with the extreme's magnitude and duration, though acclimation may buffer that stress. However, organisms can differ strikingly in their exposure to and tolerance of a given extreme temperatures. Moreover, their sensitivity to extremes can vary during ontogeny, across seasons, and among species; and that sensitivity and its variation should be subject to selection. We use a simple quantitative genetic model and demonstrate that thermal extremes-even when at low frequency-can substantially influence the evolution of thermal sensitivity, particularly when the extremes cause mortality or persistent physiological injury, or when organisms are unable to use behavior to buffer exposure to extremes. Thermal extremes can drive organisms in temperate and tropical sites to have similar thermal tolerances despite major differences in mean temperatures. Indeed, the model correctly predicts that Australian Drosophila should have shallower latitudinal gradients in thermal tolerance than would be expected based only on gradients in mean conditions. Predicting responses to climate change requires understanding not only how past selection to tolerate thermal extremes has helped establish existing geographic gradients in thermal tolerances, but also how increasing the incidence of thermal extremes will alter geographic gradients in the future.

  8. Morphological and transcriptional response of an anhydrobiotic insect to ionizing radiation and desiccation: steps forward in understanding molecular background of extreme radioresistance in higher eukaryotes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gusev, Oleg; Novikova, Nataliya; Sychev, Vladimir; Okuda, Takashi; Kikawada, Takahiro; Sakashita, Tetsuya; Mukae, Kyosuke

    2012-07-01

    Life in extreme or drastically changing environments in many cases leads to evolutionary evolvement of mechanisms of cross-resistance to different abiotic stresses, often never actually faced by the organism in its natural habitat. Larvae of the sleeping chironomidPolypedilum vanderplanki (Diptera) are able to resist complete desiccation and in the dry form survive under excess of various abiotic stresses, including exposure to space environment. One of the most intriguing features of the anhydrobiotic larvae is resistance to extremely high doses of different types of ionizing radiation. To understand the cross-tolerance mechanism, we have analyzed the structural changes in the nuclear DNA using transmission electron microscopy and DNA comet assays in relation to anhydrobiosis and radiation. We find that dehydration causes alterations in chromatin structure and a severe fragmentation of nuclear DNA in the cells of the larvae despite successful anhydrobiosis. The DNA fragmentation level and the recovery of DNA integrity in the rehydrated after anhydrobiosis larvae were similar to those of hydrated larvae irradiated with 70 Gy of high-linear energy transfer (LET) ions (4He+). In comparison, low-LET radiation (gamma rays) of the same dose causes less initial damage to the larvae, and recovery of DNA repair is complete within 24 h. Genome-wide analysis of mRNA expression in the larvae revealed that a large group of genes (including antioxidants, anhydrobiosis-specific biomolecules and protein-reparation enzymes) showed a similar patterns of activity in response to both desiccation and ionizing radiation. We conclude that t one of the factors explaining the relationship between the resistance to ionizing radiation and the ability to undergo anhydrobiosis in the sleeping chironomid would be an adaptation to desiccation-inflicted proteins and nuclear DNA damage.

  9. Outcomes for extremely premature infants.

    PubMed

    Glass, Hannah C; Costarino, Andrew T; Stayer, Stephen A; Brett, Claire M; Cladis, Franklyn; Davis, Peter J

    2015-06-01

    Premature birth is a significant cause of infant and child morbidity and mortality. In the United States, the premature birth rate, which had steadily increased during the 1990s and early 2000s, has decreased annually for 7 years and is now approximately 11.39%. Human viability, defined as gestational age at which the chance of survival is 50%, is currently approximately 23 to 24 weeks in developed countries. Infant girls, on average, have better outcomes than infant boys. A relatively uncomplicated course in the intensive care nursery for an extremely premature infant results in a discharge date close to the prenatal estimated date of confinement. Despite technological advances and efforts of child health experts during the last generation, the extremely premature infant (less than 28 weeks gestation) and extremely low birth weight infant (<1000 g) remain at high risk for death and disability with 30% to 50% mortality and, in survivors, at least 20% to 50% risk of morbidity. The introduction of continuous positive airway pressure, mechanical ventilation, and exogenous surfactant increased survival and spurred the development of neonatal intensive care in the 1970s through the early 1990s. Routine administration of antenatal steroids during premature labor improved neonatal mortality and morbidity in the late 1990s. The recognition that chronic postnatal administration of steroids to infants should be avoided may have improved outcomes in the early 2000s. Evidence from recent trials attempting to define the appropriate target for oxygen saturation in preterm infants suggests arterial oxygen saturation between 91% and 95% (compared with 85%-89%) avoids excess mortality; however, final analyses of data from these trials have not been published, so definitive recommendations are still pending. The development of neonatal neurocritical intensive care units may improve neurocognitive outcomes in this high-risk group. Long-term follow-up to detect and address

  10. EMG-Driven Forward-Dynamic Estimation of Muscle Force and Joint Moment about Multiple Degrees of Freedom in the Human Lower Extremity

    PubMed Central

    Sartori, Massimo; Reggiani, Monica; Farina, Dario; Lloyd, David G.

    2012-01-01

    This work examined if currently available electromyography (EMG) driven models, that are calibrated to satisfy joint moments about one single degree of freedom (DOF), could provide the same musculotendon unit (MTU) force solution, when driven by the same input data, but calibrated about a different DOF. We then developed a novel and comprehensive EMG-driven model of the human lower extremity that used EMG signals from 16 muscle groups to drive 34 MTUs and satisfy the resulting joint moments simultaneously produced about four DOFs during different motor tasks. This also led to the development of a calibration procedure that allowed identifying a set of subject-specific parameters that ensured physiological behavior for the 34 MTUs. Results showed that currently available single-DOF models did not provide the same unique MTU force solution for the same input data. On the other hand, the MTU force solution predicted by our proposed multi-DOF model satisfied joint moments about multiple DOFs without loss of accuracy compared to single-DOF models corresponding to each of the four DOFs. The predicted MTU force solution was (1) a function of experimentally measured EMGs, (2) the result of physiological MTU excitation, (3) reflected different MTU contraction strategies associated to different motor tasks, (4) coordinated a greater number of MTUs with respect to currently available single-DOF models, and (5) was not specific to an individual DOF dynamics. Therefore, our proposed methodology has the potential of producing a more dynamically consistent and generalizable MTU force solution than was possible using single-DOF EMG-driven models. This will help better address the important scientific questions previously approached using single-DOF EMG-driven modeling. Furthermore, it might have applications in the development of human-machine interfaces for assistive devices. PMID:23300725

  11. The use of biochemical and molecular parameters to estimate dose-response relationships at low levels of exposure.

    PubMed Central

    Andersen, M E; Barton, H A

    1998-01-01

    Biomarkers based on alterations in molecular and biochemical parameters may be useful in chemical risk assessment for establishing the presence of an exposure, ranking relative risks among exposed individuals, and estimating risks at low levels of exposure. Because it is unlikely that the relation between toxic responses and the degree of alteration in the biomarker is equivalent at all doses, quantification of risks at low levels is not necessarily more accurate using these biomarkers for extrapolation. The application of response biomarkers for risk evaluation at low levels of exposure is discussed in relation to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), a compound that causes induction of cytochromes CYP1A1 and CYP1A2 in liver and other tissues. CYP1A1 induction in liver increases monotonically with TCDD dosage; however, several of the dose-response curves for hepatic effects of TCDD are U-shaped. The U-shaped dose-response curve for hepatic tumor promotion appears to result because the integrated toxicologic response depends on multiple underlying processes--mitosuppression, toxicity, and cell proliferation--each of which has a different dose-response relationship with respect to TCDD. Although dose-response relationships for the biomarkers are not expected to duplicate the complex shapes seen with the integrated responses, measurements and pharmacodynamic modeling of the changes in these molecular and biochemical parameters can still be useful for obtaining an upperbound risk estimate at low levels of exposure. Images Figure 2 PMID:9539029

  12. Estimating seismic site response in Christchurch City (New Zealand) from dense low-cost aftershock arrays

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kaiser, Anna E.; Benites, Rafael A.; Chung, Angela I.; Haines, A. John; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Fry, Bill

    2011-01-01

    The Mw 7.1 September 2010 Darfield earthquake, New Zealand, produced widespread damage and liquefaction ~40 km from the epicentre in Christchurch city. It was followed by the even more destructive Mw 6.2 February 2011 Christchurch aftershock directly beneath the city’s southern suburbs. Seismic data recorded during the two large events suggest that site effects contributed to the variations in ground motion observed throughout Christchurch city. We use densely-spaced aftershock recordings of the Darfield earthquake to investigate variations in local seismic site response within the Christchurch urban area. Following the Darfield main shock we deployed a temporary array of ~180 low-cost 14-bit MEMS accelerometers linked to the global Quake-Catcher Network (QCN). These instruments provided dense station coverage (spacing ~2 km) to complement existing New Zealand national network strong motion stations (GeoNet) within Christchurch city. Well-constrained standard spectral ratios were derived for GeoNet stations using a reference station on Miocene basalt rock in the south of the city. For noisier QCN stations, the method was adapted to find a maximum likelihood estimate of spectral ratio amplitude taking into account the variance of noise at the respective stations. Spectral ratios for QCN stations are similar to nearby GeoNet stations when the maximum likelihood method is used. Our study suggests dense low-cost accelerometer aftershock arrays can provide useful information on local-scale ground motion properties for use in microzonation. Preliminary results indicate higher amplifications north of the city centre and strong high-frequency amplification in the small, shallower basin of Heathcote Valley.

  13. Estimation of electron temperature and density of the decay plasma in a laser-assisted discharge plasma extreme ultraviolet source by using a modified Stark broadening method

    SciTech Connect

    Zhu Qiushi; Muto, Takahiro; Yamada, Junzaburo; Kishi, Nozomu; Watanabe, Masato; Okino, Akitoshi; Horioka, Kazuhiko; Hotta, Eiki

    2011-12-15

    In order to investigate the plasma expansion behaviors and the electrical recovery process after the maximum implosion in our tin fueled laser-assisted discharge plasma (LDP) 13.5 nm EUV source, we developed and evaluated a cost-efficient spectroscopic method to determine the electron temperature T{sub e} and density n{sub e} simultaneously, by using Stark broadenings of two Sn II isolated lines (5s{sup 2}4f{sup 2}F{sup o}{sub 5/2} - 5s{sup 2}5d{sup 2}D{sub 3/2} 558.9 nm and 5s{sup 2}6d{sup 2}D{sub 5/2} - 5s{sup 2}6p{sup 2}P{sup o}{sub 3/2} 556.2 nm) spontaneously emitted from the plasma. The spatial-resolved evolutions of T{sub e} and n{sub e} of the expansion plasma over 50 to 900 ns after the maximum implosion were obtained using this modified Stark broadening method. According to the different n{sub e} decay characteristics along the Z-pinch axis, the expansion velocity of the electrons was estimated as {approx}1.2 x 10{sup 4} ms{sup -1} from the plasma shell between the electrodes towards the cathode and the anode. The decay time constant of n{sub e} was measured as 183 {+-} 24 ns. Based on the theories of plasma adiabatic expansion and electron-impact ionization, the minimum time-span that electrical recovery between the electrodes needs in order to guarantee the next succeeding regular EUV-emitting discharge was estimated to be 70.5 {mu}s. Therefore, the maximum repetition rate of our LDP EUV source is {approx}14 kHz, which enables the output to reach 125 W/(2{pi}sr).