Science.gov

Sample records for extreme response estimation

  1. Extreme Quantile Estimation in Binary Response Models

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-03-01

    of responses for stimulus xi. Solution of the following equations yields MLEs for a and q7. Denoting I as the log-likelihood, we have a, k ri-nP(xi) 1...emphasize that P(x) is unknown and hence this not simply a matter of finding equation roots. The procedure is sequential and will converge to xlop...For instance, if testing at X05 we expect forty samples to be required for two responses at this stimulus level alone. The n- Zill design, discussed by

  2. An Alternative Estimator for the Maximum Likelihood Estimator for the Two Extreme Response Patterns.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Samejima, Fumiko

    In the methods and approaches developed for estimating the operating characteristics of the discrete item responses, the maximum likelihood estimate of the examinee based upon the "Old Test" has an important role. When Old Test does not provide a sufficient amount of test information for the upper and lower part of the ability interval,…

  3. Moment-Based Probability Modeling and Extreme Response Estimation, The FITS Routine Version 1.2

    SciTech Connect

    MANUEL,LANCE; KASHEF,TINA; WINTERSTEIN,STEVEN R.

    1999-11-01

    This report documents the use of the FITS routine, which provides automated fits of various analytical, commonly used probability models from input data. It is intended to complement the previously distributed FITTING routine documented in RMS Report 14 (Winterstein et al., 1994), which implements relatively complex four-moment distribution models whose parameters are fit with numerical optimization routines. Although these four-moment fits can be quite useful and faithful to the observed data, their complexity can make them difficult to automate within standard fitting algorithms. In contrast, FITS provides more robust (lower moment) fits of simpler, more conventional distribution forms. For each database of interest, the routine estimates the distribution of annual maximum response based on the data values and the duration, T, over which they were recorded. To focus on the upper tails of interest, the user can also supply an arbitrary lower-bound threshold, {chi}{sub low}, above which a shifted distribution model--exponential or Weibull--is fit.

  4. Grassland responses to precipitation extremes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Grassland ecosystems are naturally subjected to periods of prolonged drought and sequences of wet years. Climate change is expected to enhance the magnitude and frequency of extreme events at the intraannual and multiyear scales. Are grassland responses to extreme precipitation simply a response to ...

  5. Extremes of Population Estimated from Kepler Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Traub, Wesley A.

    2015-12-01

    The extremes of exoplanet population (0.5 to 16 Earth radii, 0.5 to 512 days period) are estimated from Kepler observations by comparing the observed numbers of planets at each radius and period against a simulation that accounts for the probability of transit and the estimated instrument sensitivity. By assuming that the population can be modeled as a function of period times a function of radius, and further assuming that these functions are broken power laws, sufficient leverage is gained such that the well-measured short-period extreme of the planet distribution can effectively be used as a template for the less-well sampled long-period extreme. The resulting population distribution over this full range of radius and period provides a challenge to models of the origin and evolution of planetary systems.

  6. Generalized IRT Models for Extreme Response Style

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jin, Kuan-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung

    2014-01-01

    Extreme response style (ERS) is a systematic tendency for a person to endorse extreme options (e.g., strongly disagree, strongly agree) on Likert-type or rating-scale items. In this study, we develop a new class of item response theory (IRT) models to account for ERS so that the target latent trait is free from the response style and the tendency…

  7. A Test-Length Correction to the Estimation of Extreme Proficiency Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Magis, David; Beland, Sebastien; Raiche, Gilles

    2011-01-01

    In this study, the estimation of extremely large or extremely small proficiency levels, given the item parameters of a logistic item response model, is investigated. On one hand, the estimation of proficiency levels by maximum likelihood (ML), despite being asymptotically unbiased, may yield infinite estimates. On the other hand, with an…

  8. Estimates of peak flood discharge for 21 sites in the Front Range in Colorado in response to extreme rainfall in September 2013

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moody, John A.

    2016-03-21

    Extreme rainfall in September 2013 caused destructive floods in part of the Front Range in Boulder County, Colorado. Erosion from these floods cut roads and isolated mountain communities for several weeks, and large volumes of eroded sediment were deposited downstream, which caused further damage of property and infrastructures. Estimates of peak discharge for these floods and the associated rainfall characteristics will aid land and emergency managers in the future. Several methods (an ensemble) were used to estimate peak discharge at 21 measurement sites, and the ensemble average and standard deviation provided a final estimate of peak discharge and its uncertainty. Because of the substantial erosion and deposition of sediment, an additional estimate of peak discharge was made based on the flow resistance caused by sediment transport effects.Although the synoptic-scale rainfall was extreme (annual exceedance probability greater than 1,000 years, about 450 millimeters in 7 days) for these mountains, the resulting peak discharges were not. Ensemble average peak discharges per unit drainage area (unit peak discharge, [Qu]) for the floods were 1–2 orders of magnitude less than those for the maximum worldwide floods with similar drainage areas and had a wide range of values (0.21–16.2 cubic meters per second per square kilometer [m3 s-1 km-2]). One possible explanation for these differences was that the band of high-accumulation, high-intensity rainfall was narrow (about 50 kilometers wide), oriented nearly perpendicular to the predominant drainage pattern of the mountains, and therefore entire drainage areas were not subjected to the same range of extreme rainfall. A linear relation (coefficient of determination [R2]=0.69) between Qu and the rainfall intensity (ITc, computed for a time interval equal to the time-of-concentration for the drainage area upstream from each site), had the form: Qu=0.26(ITc-8.6), where the coefficient 0.26 can be considered to be an

  9. Materials Response under extreme conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Remington, B A; Lorenz, K T; Pollaine, S; McNaney, J M

    2005-10-06

    Solid state experiments at extreme pressures, 10-100 GPa (0.1-1 Mbar) and strain rates (10{sup 6}-10{sup 8} s{sup -1}) are being developed on high-energy laser facilities. The goal is an experimental capability to test constitutive models for high-pressure, solid-state strength for a variety of materials. Relevant constitutive models are discussed, and our progress in developing a quasi-isentropic, ramped-pressure, shockless drive is given. Designs to test the constitutive models with experiments measuring perturbation growth due to the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in solid-state samples are presented.

  10. Multiscale Measurement of Extreme Response Style

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bolt, Daniel M.; Newton, Joseph R.

    2011-01-01

    This article extends a methodological approach considered by Bolt and Johnson for the measurement and control of extreme response style (ERS) to the analysis of rating data from multiple scales. Specifically, it is shown how the simultaneous analysis of item responses across scales allows for more accurate identification of ERS, and more effective…

  11. Estimating the cost of extremely large telescopes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stepp, Larry M.; Daggert, Larry G.; Gillett, Paul E.

    2003-01-01

    For future giant telescopes, control of construction and operation costs will be the key factor in their success. The best way to accomplish this cost control, while maximizing the performance of the telescope, will be through design-to-cost methods that use value engineering techniques to develop the most cost-effective design in terms of performance per dollar. This will require quantifiable measures of performance and cost, including: (1) a way of quantifying science value with scientific merit functions; (2) a way of predicting telescope performance in the presence of real-world disturbances by means of integrated modeling; and (3) a way of predicting the cost of multiple design configurations. Design-to-cost methods should be applied as early as possible in the project, since the majority of the life-cycle costs for the observatory will be locked in by choices made during the conceptual design phase. However, there is a dilemma: how can costs be accurately estimated for systems that have not yet been designed? This paper discusses cost estimating methods and describes their application to estimating the cost of ELTs, showing that the best method to use during the conceptual design phase is parametric cost estimating. Examples of parametric estimating techniques are described, based on experience gained from instrument development programs at NOAO. We then describe efforts underway to collect historical cost information and develop cost estimating relationships in preparation for the conceptual design phase of the Giant Segmented Mirror Telescope.

  12. A new method for estimating extreme rainfall probabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, G.A.; O'Hara, T.F. ); Morris, D.I. )

    1994-02-01

    As part of an EPRI-funded research program, the Yankee Atomic Electric Company developed a new method for estimating probabilities of extreme rainfall. It can be used, along with other techniques, to improve the estimation of probable maximum precipitation values for specific basins or regions.

  13. Estimating the extreme low-temperature event using nonparametric methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Silva, Anisha

    This thesis presents a new method of estimating the one-in-N low temperature threshold using a non-parametric statistical method called kernel density estimation applied to daily average wind-adjusted temperatures. We apply our One-in-N Algorithm to local gas distribution companies (LDCs), as they have to forecast the daily natural gas needs of their consumers. In winter, demand for natural gas is high. Extreme low temperature events are not directly related to an LDCs gas demand forecasting, but knowledge of extreme low temperatures is important to ensure that an LDC has enough capacity to meet customer demands when extreme low temperatures are experienced. We present a detailed explanation of our One-in-N Algorithm and compare it to the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution. We show that our One-in-N Algorithm estimates the one-in- N low temperature threshold more accurately than the methods using the generalized extreme value distribution, the normal distribution, and the variance-weighted composite distribution according to root mean square error (RMSE) measure at a 5% level of significance. The One-in- N Algorithm is tested by counting the number of times the daily average wind-adjusted temperature is less than or equal to the one-in- N low temperature threshold.

  14. Estimating missing daily temperature extremes in Jaffna, Sri Lanka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thevakaran, A.; Sonnadara, D. U. J.

    2017-02-01

    The accuracy of reconstructing missing daily temperature extremes in the Jaffna climatological station, situated in the northern part of the dry zone of Sri Lanka, is presented. The adopted method utilizes standard departures of daily maximum and minimum temperature values at four neighbouring stations, Mannar, Anuradhapura, Puttalam and Trincomalee to estimate the standard departures of daily maximum and minimum temperatures at the target station, Jaffna. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures from 1966 to 1980 (15 years) were used to test the validity of the method. The accuracy of the estimation is higher for daily maximum temperature compared to daily minimum temperature. About 95% of the estimated daily maximum temperatures are within ±1.5 °C of the observed values. For daily minimum temperature, the percentage is about 92. By calculating the standard deviation of the difference in estimated and observed values, we have shown that the error in estimating the daily maximum and minimum temperatures is ±0.7 and ±0.9 °C, respectively. To obtain the best accuracy when estimating the missing daily temperature extremes, it is important to include Mannar which is the nearest station to the target station, Jaffna. We conclude from the analysis that the method can be applied successfully to reconstruct the missing daily temperature extremes in Jaffna where no data is available due to frequent disruptions caused by civil unrests and hostilities in the region during the period, 1984 to 2000.

  15. Estimation of fatigue and extreme load distributions from limited data with application to wind energy systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzwater, LeRoy M.

    2004-01-01

    An estimate of the distribution of fatigue ranges or extreme loads for wind turbines may be obtained by separating the problem into two uncoupled parts, (1) a turbine specific portion, independent of the site and (2) a site-specific description of environmental variables. We consider contextually appropriate probability models to describe the turbine specific response for extreme loads or fatigue. The site-specific portion is described by a joint probability distribution of a vector of environmental variables, which characterize the wind process at the hub-height of the wind turbine. Several approaches are considered for combining the two portions to obtain an estimate of the extreme load, e.g., 50-year loads or fatigue damage. We assess the efficacy of these models to obtain accurate estimates, including various levels of epistemic uncertainty, of the turbine response.

  16. The Estimation of Probability of Extreme Events for Small Samples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pisarenko, V. F.; Rodkin, M. V.

    2017-02-01

    The most general approach to the study of rare extreme events is based on the extreme value theory. The fundamental General Extreme Value Distribution lies in the basis of this theory serving as the limit distribution for normalized maxima. It depends on three parameters. Usually the method of maximum likelihood (ML) is used for the estimation that possesses well-known optimal asymptotic properties. However, this method works efficiently only when sample size is large enough ( 200-500), whereas in many applications the sample size does not exceed 50-100. For such sizes, the advantage of the ML method in efficiency is not guaranteed. We have found that for this situation the method of statistical moments (SM) works more efficiently over other methods. The details of the estimation for small samples are studied. The SM is applied to the study of extreme earthquakes in three large virtual seismic zones, representing the regime of seismicity in subduction zones, intracontinental regime of seismicity, and the regime in mid-ocean ridge zones. The 68%-confidence domains for pairs of parameter (ξ, σ) and (σ, μ) are derived.

  17. An Extreme Learning Machine Approach to Density Estimation Problems.

    PubMed

    Cervellera, Cristiano; Maccio, Danilo

    2017-01-17

    In this paper, we discuss how the extreme learning machine (ELM) framework can be effectively employed in the unsupervised context of multivariate density estimation. In particular, two algorithms are introduced, one for the estimation of the cumulative distribution function underlying the observed data, and one for the estimation of the probability density function. The algorithms rely on the concept of $F$-discrepancy, which is closely related to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov criterion for goodness of fit. Both methods retain the key feature of the ELM of providing the solution through random assignment of the hidden feature map and a very light computational burden. A theoretical analysis is provided, discussing convergence under proper hypotheses on the chosen activation functions. Simulation tests show how ELMs can be successfully employed in the density estimation framework, as a possible alternative to other standard methods.

  18. A modified estimation distribution algorithm based on extreme elitism.

    PubMed

    Gao, Shujun; de Silva, Clarence W

    2016-12-01

    An existing estimation distribution algorithm (EDA) with univariate marginal Gaussian model was improved by designing and incorporating an extreme elitism selection method. This selection method highlighted the effect of a few top best solutions in the evolution and advanced EDA to form a primary evolution direction and obtain a fast convergence rate. Simultaneously, this selection can also keep the population diversity to make EDA avoid premature convergence. Then the modified EDA was tested by means of benchmark low-dimensional and high-dimensional optimization problems to illustrate the gains in using this extreme elitism selection. Besides, no-free-lunch theorem was implemented in the analysis of the effect of this new selection on EDAs.

  19. Evaluation of extreme precipitation estimates from TRMM in Angola

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pombo, Sandra; de Oliveira, Rodrigo Proença

    2015-04-01

    In situ ground observation measurement of precipitation is difficult in vast and sparsely populated areas, with poor road networks. This paper examines the use of remote sensors installed in satellites and evaluates the accuracy of TRMM 3B42 annual maximum daily precipitation estimates in Angola, in West Africa, a region where ground monitoring networks are generally. TRMM 3B42 estimates of annual maximum daily precipitation are compared to ground observation data from 159 locations. As a direct comparison between the two datasets for a common specific period and sites is not possible, a statistical approach was adopted to test the hypothesis that the TRMM 3B42 estimates and the ground monitoring records exhibit similar statistical characteristics. The study shows that the annual maximum daily precipitation estimates obtained from TRMM 3B42 slightly underestimate the quantiles obtained from the in situ observations. The use of remote sensing products to estimate extreme precipitation values for engineering design purposes is however promising. A maximum daily precipitation map for a return period of 20 years was computed and in the future, as the length of the remote sensing data series increases, it may be possible to estimate annual maximum daily precipitation estimates exclusively from these datasets for larger return periods. The paper also presents maps of the PdT/PDT ratios, where PdT is the annual maximum precipitation for a duration d and a return period of T years, and PDT is the annual maximum daily precipitation for a return period of T years. In conjunction with these maps it is possible to estimate the maximum precipitation for durations between 3 h and 5 days.

  20. Response of spent LWR fuel to extreme environments

    SciTech Connect

    Sandoval, R.P.; Burian, R.J.; Kok, K.D.; DiSalvo, R.; Balmert, M.E.; Freeman-Kelly, R.; Fentiman, A.W.

    1986-01-01

    The research reported in this paper addresses the radiological source term which could arise when irradiated fuel in transport from a commercial light water reactor is exposed to the extreme environments postulated for some transportation accidents, specifically those involving a fire. The release of spent fuel radionuclides to the environment requires a breach of both the cask and the fuel rod cladding. Past research has given significant emphasis to evaluating the response of the shipping cask to mechanical and/or thermal loads from hypothetical accidents. Less consideration has been given to evaluating the response of the fuel rods to these environments. In this paper, the response of the fuel rods to an extreme thermal event was experimentally evaluated and the quantity of solid fuel material that could be released from the fuel rods to the cask cavity was estimated. Briefly, the objectives of this study were as follows: (1) Identify those conditions within a transportation cask which might produce fuel-rod cladding failure, emphasizing conditions associated with fires, and (2) Determine by experiment and analysis the nature of the source term so produced. The release of radionuclides from coolant or deposits on the outer surfaces of the fuel assembly was not addressed in this study. 6 figs., 2 figs.

  1. Estimating temporal changes in extreme rainfall in Sicily Region (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonaccorso, Brunella; Aronica, Giuseppe

    2016-04-01

    An intensification of extreme rainfall events have characterized several areas of peninsular and insular Italy since the early 2000s, suggesting an upward ongoing trend likely driven by climate change. In the present study temporal changes in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12- and 24-hour annual maxima rainfall series from more than 200 sites in Sicily region (Italy) are examined. A regional study is performed in order to reduce the uncertainty in change detection related to the limited length of the available records of extreme rainfall series. More specifically, annual maxima series are treated according to a regional flood index - type approach to frequency analysis, by assuming stationarity on a decadal time scale. First a cluster analysis using at-site characteristics is used to determine homogeneous rainfall regions. Then, potential changes in regional L-moment ratios are analyzed using a 10-year moving window. Furthermore, the shapes of regional growth curves, derived by splitting the records into separate decades, are compared. In addition, a jackknife procedure is used to assess uncertainty in the fitted growth curves and to identify significant trends in quantile estimates. Results reveal that, despite L-moment ratios show a general decreasing trend and that growth curves corresponding to the last decade (2000-2009) are usually less steep than the ones of the previous periods, rainfall quantile estimates have increased during the 2000s due to a large increase in regional average median, mainly in Western Sicily.

  2. Mood responses to athletic performance in extreme environments.

    PubMed

    Lane, Andrew M; Terry, Peter C; Stevens, Matthew J; Barney, Sam; Dinsdale, Sarah L

    2004-10-01

    Competition at elite level can require athletes to perform optimally in extreme environmental conditions. This review focuses on mood responses in such conditions and proposes practical guidelines for those working with athletes. Different environments are considered, including altitude and extreme heat and cold. Performing in extreme heat, cold or at altitude can produce a stress response characterized by increased negative mood and relatively poor performance. Positive adaptations to extreme conditions can be accelerated, but the rate of adaptation appears to be highly individualized. Monitoring mood responses to training under normal conditions provides a basis for identifying the psychological effects of extreme conditions. It is suggested that practitioners carefully monitor the interplay between vigour, fatigue and depressed mood. Reductions in vigour and increases in fatigue are normal responses to hard training, but other aspects of mood disturbance, especially symptoms of depressed mood--however small--may be indicative of a maladaptive response, and practitioners should consider intervening when such symptoms first appear.

  3. Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Population without Power during Extreme Weather Events

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Fernandez, Steven J; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

    2010-01-01

    One challenge in emergency preparedness and response during extreme weather events such as hurricanes and ice storms is estimating how many people may be without power and how long they could be without power. In this presentation, we will discuss a method for estimating the spatial distribution of people without power during extreme weather events. The method is based on a directional nearest-neighbor approach in which grid cells representing substation locations acquire other grid cells representing customers/population demand with respect to the capacity of each substation. We also present a method for estimating restoration time in case of an outage. The application of these methods during the 2008 hurricane season will also be discussed.

  4. Hematocrit estimation using online sequential extreme learning machine.

    PubMed

    Huynh, Hieu Trung; Won, Yonggwan; Kim, Jinsul

    2015-01-01

    Hematocrit is a blood test that is defined as the volume percentage of red blood cells in the whole blood. It is one of the important indicators for clinical decision making and the most effective factor in glucose measurement using handheld devices. In this paper, a method for hematocrit estimation that is based upon the transduced current curve and the neural network is presented. The salient points of this method are that (1) the neural network is trained by the online sequential extreme learning machine (OS-ELM) in which the devices can be still trained with new samples during the using process and (2) the extended features are used to reduce the number of current points which can save the battery power of devices and speed up the measurement process.

  5. Estimating changes in temperature extremes from millennial-scale climate simulations using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Whitney K.; Stein, Michael L.; McInerney, David J.; Sun, Shanshan; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

    2016-07-01

    Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, it is intrinsically difficult to estimate changes in extreme events from the short observational record. In this work we use millennial runs from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) in equilibrated pre-industrial and possible future (700 and 1400 ppm CO2) conditions to examine both how extremes change in this model and how well these changes can be estimated as a function of run length. We estimate changes to distributions of future temperature extremes (annual minima and annual maxima) in the contiguous United States by fitting generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. Using 1000-year pre-industrial and future time series, we show that warm extremes largely change in accordance with mean shifts in the distribution of summertime temperatures. Cold extremes warm more than mean shifts in the distribution of wintertime temperatures, but changes in GEV location parameters are generally well explained by the combination of mean shifts and reduced wintertime temperature variability. For cold extremes at inland locations, return levels at long recurrence intervals show additional effects related to changes in the spread and shape of GEV distributions. We then examine uncertainties that result from using shorter model runs. In theory, the GEV distribution can allow prediction of infrequent events using time series shorter than the recurrence interval of those events. To investigate how well this approach works in practice, we estimate 20-, 50-, and 100-year extreme events using segments of varying lengths. We find that even using GEV distributions, time series of comparable or shorter length than the return period of interest can lead to very poor estimates. These results suggest caution when attempting to use short observational time series or model runs to infer infrequent extremes.

  6. Crop insurance evaluation in response to extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moriondo, Marco; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco

    2013-04-01

    Crop yield insurance has been indicated as a tool to manage the uncertainties of crop yields (Sherrick et al., 2004) but the changes in crop yield variability as expected in the near future should be carefully considered for a better quantitative assessment of farmer's revenue risk and insurance values in a climatic change regime (Moriondo et al., 2011). Under this point of view, mechanistic crop growth models coupled to the output of General/Regional Circulation Models (GCMs, RCMs) offer a valuable tool to evaluate crop responses to climatic change and this approach has been extensively used to describe crop yield distribution in response to climatic change considering changes in both mean climate and variability. In this work, we studied the effect of a warmer climate on crop yield distribution of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. subsp durum) in order to assess the economic significance of climatic change in a risk decision context. Specifically, the outputs of 6 RCMs (Tmin, Tmax, Rainfall, Global Radiation) (van der Linden and Mitchell 2009) have been statistically downscaled by a stochastic weather generator over eight sites across the Mediterranean basin and used to feed the crop growth model Sirius Quality. Three time slices were considered i) the present period PP (average of the period 1975-1990, [CO2]=350 ppm), 2020 (average of the period 2010-2030, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=415 ppm) and 2040 (average of the period 2030-2050, SRES scenario A1b, [CO2]=480 ppm). The effect of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also considered. The outputs of these simulations were used to estimate the expected payout per hectare from insurance triggered when yields fall below a specific threshold defined as "the insured yield". For each site, the threshold was calculated as a fraction (70%) of the median of yield distribution under PP that represents the percentage of median yield above which indemnity payments are triggered. The results

  7. Scaling multiconjugate adaptive optics performance estimates to extremely large telescopes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellerbroek, Brent L.; Rigaut, Francois J.

    2000-07-01

    Multi-conjugate adaptive optics (MCAO) is a key technology for extremely large, ground-based telescopes (ELT's) because it enables near-uniform atmospheric turbulence compensation over fields-of-view considerably larger than can be corrected with more conventional AO systems. Quantitative performance evaluation using detailed analytical or simulation models is difficult, however, due to the very large number of deformable mirror (DM) actuators, wave front sensors (WFS) subapertures, and guide stars which might comprise an MCAO system for an ELT. This paper employs more restricted minimal variance estimation methods to evaluate the fundamental performance limits imposed by anisoplanatism alone upon MCAO performance for a range of sample cases. Each case is defined by a atmospheric turbulence profile, telescope aperture diameter, field-of-view, guide star constellation, and set of DM conjugate ranges. For a Kolmogorov turbulence spectrum with an infinite outer scale, MCAO performance for a whole range of aperture diameters and proportional fields-of-view can be computed at once using a scaling law analogous to the (D/dO)5/3 formula for the cone effect. For 30 meter telescopes, useful levels of performance are possible across a 1.0 - 2.0 arc minute square field-of-view using 5 laser guide stars (LGS's) and 3 DM's, and somewhat larger fields can be corrected using 9 guide stars and 4 mirrors. 3 or more tip/tilt natural guide stars (NGS's) are necessary to detect modes of tilt anisoplanatism which cannot be detected using LGS's, however. LGS MCAO performance is a quite weak function of aperture diameter for a fixed field-of-view, and it is tempting to scale these results to larger apertures. NGS MCAO performance is moderately superior to LGS MCAO if the NGS constellation is within the compensated field-of-view, but degrades rapidly as the guide stars move away from the field. The penalty relaxes slowly with increasing aperture diameter, but how to extrapolate this trend

  8. (When and where) Do extreme climate events trigger extreme ecosystem responses? - Development and initial results of a holistic analysis framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauber, Eva K.; Donner, Reik V.

    2015-04-01

    In the context of ongoing climate change, extremes are likely to increase in magnitude and frequency. One of the most important consequences of these changes is that the associated ecological risks and impacts are potentially rising as well. In order to better anticipate and understand these impacts, it therefore becomes more and more crucial to understand the general connection between climate extremes and the response and functionality of ecosystems. Among other region of the world, Europe presents an excellent test case for studies concerning the interaction between climate and biosphere, since it lies in the transition region between cold polar and warm tropical air masses and thus covers a great variety of different climatic zones and associated terrestrial ecosystems. The large temperature differences across the continent make this region particularly interesting for investigating the effects of climate change on biosphere-climate interactions. However, previously used methods for defining an extreme event typically disregard the necessity of taking seasonality as well as seasonal variance appropriately into account. Furthermore, most studies have focused on the impacts of individual extreme events instead of considering a whole inventory of extremes with their respective spatio-temporal extents. In order to overcome the aforementioned research gaps, this work introduces a new approach to studying climate-biosphere interactions associated with extreme events, which comprises three consecutive steps: (1) Since Europe exhibits climatic conditions characterized by marked seasonality, a novel method is developed to define extreme events taking into account the seasonality in all quantiles of the probability distribution of the respective variable of interest. This is achieved by considering kernel density estimates individually for each observation date during the year, including the properly weighted information from adjacent dates. By this procedure, we obtain

  9. Streamflow response to increasing precipitation extremes altered by forest management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelly, Charlene N.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Miniat, Chelcy Ford; Vose, James M.

    2016-04-01

    Increases in extreme precipitation events of floods and droughts are expected to occur worldwide. The increase in extreme events will result in changes in streamflow that are expected to affect water availability for human consumption and aquatic ecosystem function. We present an analysis that may greatly improve current streamflow models by quantifying the impact of the interaction between forest management and precipitation. We use daily long-term data from paired watersheds that have undergone forest harvest or species conversion. We find that interactive effects of climate change, represented by changes in observed precipitation trends, and forest management regime, significantly alter expected streamflow most often during extreme events, ranging from a decrease of 59% to an increase of 40% in streamflow, depending upon management. Our results suggest that vegetation might be managed to compensate for hydrologic responses due to climate change to help mitigate effects of extreme changes in precipitation.

  10. Response of Simple, Model Systems to Extreme Conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Ewing, Rodney C.; Lang, Maik

    2015-07-30

    The focus of the research was on the application of high-pressure/high-temperature techniques, together with intense energetic ion beams, to the study of the behavior of simple oxide systems (e.g., SiO2, GeO2, CeO2, TiO2, HfO2, SnO2, ZnO and ZrO2) under extreme conditions. These simple stoichiometries provide unique model systems for the analysis of structural responses to pressure up to and above 1 Mbar, temperatures of up to several thousands of kelvin, and the extreme energy density generated by energetic heavy ions (tens of keV/atom). The investigations included systematic studies of radiation- and pressure-induced amorphization of high P-T polymorphs. By studying the response of simple stoichiometries that have multiple structural “outcomes”, we have established the basic knowledge required for the prediction of the response of more complex structures to extreme conditions. We especially focused on the amorphous state and characterized the different non-crystalline structure-types that result from the interplay of radiation and pressure. For such experiments, we made use of recent technological developments, such as the perforated diamond-anvil cell and in situ investigation using synchrotron x-ray sources. We have been particularly interested in using extreme pressures to alter the electronic structure of a solid prior to irradiation. We expected that the effects of modified band structure would be evident in the track structure and morphology, information which is much needed to describe theoretically the fundamental physics of track-formation. Finally, we investigated the behavior of different simple-oxide, composite nanomaterials (e.g., uncoated nanoparticles vs. core/shell systems) under coupled, extreme conditions. This provided insight into surface and boundary effects on phase stability under extreme conditions.

  11. Estimating the frequency of extreme rainfall using weather radar and stochastic storm transposition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, Daniel B.; Smith, James A.; Villarini, Gabriele; Baeck, Mary Lynn

    2013-04-01

    Spatial and temporal variability in extreme rainfall, and its interactions with land cover and the drainage network, is an important driver of flood response. "Design storms," which are commonly used for flood risk assessment, however, are assumed to be uniform in space and either uniform or highly idealized in time. The impacts of these and other commonly-made assumptions are rarely considered, and their impacts on flood risk estimates are poorly understood. This study presents an alternate framework for rainfall frequency analysis that couples stochastic storm transposition (SST) with "storm catalogs" developed from a ten-year high-resolution (15-min, 1-km2) radar rainfall dataset for the region surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina, USA. The SST procedure involves spatial and temporal resampling from these storm catalogs to reconstruct the regional climatology of extreme rainfall. SST-based intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) estimates are driven by the spatial and temporal rainfall variability from weather radar observations, are tailored specifically to the chosen watershed, and do not require simplifying assumptions of storm structure. We are able to use the SST procedure to reproduce IDF estimates from conventional methods for four urban watersheds in Charlotte. We demonstrate that extreme rainfall can vary substantially in time and in space, with potentially important flood risk implications that cannot be assessed using conventional techniques. SST coupled with high-resolution radar rainfall fields represents a useful alternative to conventional design storms for flood risk assessment, the full advantages of which can be realized when the concept is extended to flood frequency analysis using a distributed hydrologic model.

  12. Seasonal Climate Extremes : Mechanism, Predictability and Responses to Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shongwe, M. E.

    2010-01-01

    Climate extremes are rarely occurring natural phenomena in the climate system. They often pose one of the greatest environmental threats to human and natural systems. Statistical methods are commonly used to investigate characteristics of climate extremes. The fitted statistical properties are often interpolated or extrapolated to give an indication of the likelihood of a certain event within a given period or interval. Under changing climatic conditions, the statistical properties of climate extremes are also changing. It is an important scientific goal to predict how the properties of extreme events change. To achieve this goal, observational and model studies aimed at revealing important features are a necessary prerequisite. Notable progress has been made in understanding mechanisms that influence climate variability and extremes in many parts of the globe including Europe. However, some of the recently observed unprecedented extremes cannot be fully explained from the already identified forcing factors. A better understanding of why these extreme events occur and their sensitivity to certain reinforcing and/or competing factors is useful. Understanding their basic form as well as their temporal variability is also vital and can contribute to global scientific efforts directed at advancing climate prediction capabilities, particularly making skilful forecasts and realistic projections of extremes. In this thesis temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe and Africa, respectively, are investigated. Emphasis is placed on the mechanisms underlying the occurrence of the extremes, their predictability and their likely response to global warming. The focus is on some selected seasons when extremes typically occur. An atmospheric energy budget analysis for the record-breaking European Autumn 2006 event has been carried out with the goal to identify the sources of energy for the extreme event. Net radiational heating is compared to surface turbulent fluxes of

  13. Estimation, modeling, and simulation of patterned growth in extreme environments.

    PubMed

    Strader, B; Schubert, K E; Quintana, M; Gomez, E; Curnutt, J; Boston, P

    2011-01-01

    In the search for life on Mars and other extraterrestrial bodies or in our attempts to identify biological traces in the most ancient rock record of Earth, one of the biggest problems facing us is how to recognize life or the remains of ancient life in a context very different from our planet's modern biological examples. Specific chemistries or biological properties may well be inapplicable to extraterrestrial conditions or ancient Earth environments. Thus, we need to develop an arsenal of techniques that are of broader applicability. The notion of patterning created in some fashion by biological processes and properties may provide such a generalized property of biological systems no matter what the incidentals of chemistry or environmental conditions. One approach to recognizing these kinds of patterns is to look at apparently organized arrangements created and left by life in extreme environments here on Earth, especially at various spatial scales, different geologies, and biogeochemical circumstances.

  14. An importance sampling algorithm for estimating extremes of perpetuity sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collamore, Jeffrey F.

    2012-09-01

    In a wide class of problems in insurance and financial mathematics, it is of interest to study the extremal events of a perpetuity sequence. This paper addresses the problem of numerically evaluating these rare event probabilities. Specifically, an importance sampling algorithm is described which is efficient in the sense that it exhibits bounded relative error, and which is optimal in an appropriate asymptotic sense. The main idea of the algorithm is to use a "dual" change of measure, which is employed to an associated Markov chain over a randomly-stopped time interval. The algorithm also makes use of the so-called forward sequences generated to the given stochastic recursion, together with elements of Markov chain theory.

  15. Fuel Estimation Using Dynamic Response

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-03-01

    estimates from the bookkeeping method [17]. Another method used on the ASTRIUM -SAS communication satellites is the “Thermal Propellant Gaug- ing...Applied on ASTRIUM -SAS Telecom- munication Satellite.” 3rd International Conference on Spacecraft Propulsion. 131–138. Cannes, France: European Space

  16. Extreme responses of non-linear dynamic systems using constrained simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Harland, L.A.; Vugts, J.H.; Jonathan, P.; Taylor, P.H.

    1996-12-31

    The dynamic behavior of structures in the offshore environment is complex, especially in extreme storm conditions. The most accurate methods for estimating structural behavior are based on extensive random time domain simulations of the ocean surface to obtain statistics of the extreme response in (typically) a 3 hour period of a severe storm. However, random time domain simulation is time-consuming and expensive for both the computer and the engineer. In this work the authors use a method to determine the distribution of the extreme structural response in a robust, faster and cheaper way than with full random simulations. This method, which is based on constrained random simulations, has been successfully developed using a grossly simplified model of a jack-up. The aim of this study is now to include more realistic modelling parameters in order to demonstrate that the method can be successfully applied to real problems and that accurate results can be obtained with relatively little effort.

  17. Extreme startle and photomyoclonic response in severe hypocalcaemia.

    PubMed

    Moccia, Marcello; Erro, Roberto; Nicolella, Elvira; Striano, Pasquale; Striano, Salvatore

    2014-03-01

    We report the case of 62-year-old woman referred to our department because of a clinical suspicion of tonic-clonic seizures. Clinical examination revealed an exaggerated startle reflex, EEG showed a photomyoclonic response, and blood tests indicated severe hypocalcaemia. Additional clinical data, treatment strategies, and long-term follow-up visits were reported. The present report discusses the difficulties in distinguishing between epileptic and non-epileptic startles, and shows, for the first time, exaggerated startle reflex and extreme photomyoclonic response due to severe hypocalcaemia.

  18. Responses of greenhouse gas fluxes to climate extremes in a semiarid grassland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Linfeng; Fan, Wenyu; Kang, Xiaoming; Wang, Yanfen; Cui, Xiaoyong; Xu, Chengyuan; Griffin, Kevin L.; Hao, Yanbin

    2016-10-01

    Climate extremes are expected to increase in frequency and intensity as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change attributed to the rise of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, studies on the impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are limited. Here, we experimentally imposed extreme drought and a heat wave (∼60-year recurrence) to investigate their effects on GHGs fluxes of a semiarid grassland in China. We estimated a 16% and 38% percent reduction in net ecosystem CO2 uptake caused by the heat wave and drought respectively, but via different mechanisms. Drought reduced gross ecosystem productively (GEP) and to a lower extent ecosystem respiration (ER). By contrast, the simulated heat wave suppressed only GEP while ER remained stable. The climate extremes also created a legacy effect on GEP and NEE lasting until the end of the growing season, whereas ER recovered immediately. Although CH4 and N2O fluxes were unaffected by the heat wave, drought promoted CH4 uptake and suppressed N2O emission during the treatment period. The effect of drought on GHGs fluxes generally overwhelmed that of the heat wave treatment, and there were no interactive effects of these two types of climate extremes. Our results showed that responses of ecosystem GHGs exchange to climate extremes are strongly regulated by soil moisture status. In conclusion, future amplification of climate extremes could decrease the sink for GHGs, especially CO2, in this semiarid grasslands.

  19. Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change.

    PubMed

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    2014-08-28

    Snowfall is an important element of the climate system, and one that is expected to change in a warming climate. Both mean snowfall and the intensity distribution of snowfall are important, with heavy snowfall events having particularly large economic and human impacts. Simulations with climate models indicate that annual mean snowfall declines with warming in most regions but increases in regions with very low surface temperatures. The response of heavy snowfall events to a changing climate, however, is unclear. Here I show that in simulations with climate models under a scenario of high emissions of greenhouse gases, by the late twenty-first century there are smaller fractional changes in the intensities of daily snowfall extremes than in mean snowfall over many Northern Hemisphere land regions. For example, for monthly climatological temperatures just below freezing and surface elevations below 1,000 metres, the 99.99th percentile of daily snowfall decreases by 8% in the multimodel median, compared to a 65% reduction in mean snowfall. Both mean and extreme snowfall must decrease for a sufficiently large warming, but the climatological temperature above which snowfall extremes decrease with warming in the simulations is as high as -9 °C, compared to -14 °C for mean snowfall. These results are supported by a physically based theory that is consistent with the observed rain-snow transition. According to the theory, snowfall extremes occur near an optimal temperature that is insensitive to climate warming, and this results in smaller fractional changes for higher percentiles of daily snowfall. The simulated changes in snowfall that I find would influence surface snow and its hazards; these changes also suggest that it may be difficult to detect a regional climate-change signal in snowfall extremes.

  20. Response spectrum method for extreme wave loading with higher order components of drag force

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reza, Tabeshpour Mohammad; Mani, Fatemi Dezfouli; Ali, Dastan Diznab Mohammad; Saied, Mohajernasab; Saied, Seif Mohammad

    2017-03-01

    Response spectra of fixed offshore structures impacted by extreme waves are investigated based on the higher order components of the nonlinear drag force. In this way, steel jacket platforms are simplified as a mass attached to a light cantilever cylinder and their corresponding deformation response spectra are estimated by utilizing a generalized single degree of freedom system. Based on the wave data recorded in the Persian Gulf region, extreme wave loading conditions corresponding to different return periods are exerted on the offshore structures. Accordingly, the effect of the higher order components of the drag force is considered and compared to the linearized state for different sea surface levels. When the fundamental period of the offshore structure is about one third of the main period of wave loading, the results indicate the linearized drag term is not capable of achieving a reliable deformation response spectrum.

  1. Response spectrum method for extreme wave loading with higher order components of drag force

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reza, Tabeshpour Mohammad; Mani, Fatemi Dezfouli; Mohammad Ali, Dastan Diznab; Saied, Mohajernasab; Saied, Seif Mohammad

    2017-01-01

    Response spectra of fixed offshore structures impacted by extreme waves are investigated based on the higher order components of the nonlinear drag force. In this way, steel jacket platforms are simplified as a mass attached to a light cantilever cylinder and their corresponding deformation response spectra are estimated by utilizing a generalized single degree of freedom system. Based on the wave data recorded in the Persian Gulf region, extreme wave loading conditions corresponding to different return periods are exerted on the offshore structures. Accordingly, the effect of the higher order components of the drag force is considered and compared to the linearized state for different sea surface levels. When the fundamental period of the offshore structure is about one third of the main period of wave loading, the results indicate the linearized drag term is not capable of achieving a reliable deformation response spectrum.

  2. Estimating the Extreme Behaviors of Students Performance Using Quantile Regression--Evidences from Taiwan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Sheng-Tung; Kuo, Hsiao-I.; Chen, Chi-Chung

    2012-01-01

    The two-stage least squares approach together with quantile regression analysis is adopted here to estimate the educational production function. Such a methodology is able to capture the extreme behaviors of the two tails of students' performance and the estimation outcomes have important policy implications. Our empirical study is applied to the…

  3. Response Styles in Rating Scales: Simultaneous Modeling of Content-Related Effects and the Tendency to Middle or Extreme Categories

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tutz, Gerhard; Berger, Moritz

    2016-01-01

    Heterogeneity in response styles can affect the conclusions drawn from rating scale data. In particular, biased estimates can be expected if one ignores a tendency to middle categories or to extreme categories. An adjacent categories model is proposed that simultaneously models the content-related effects and the heterogeneity in response styles.…

  4. Estimating extreme losses for the Florida Public Hurricane Model—part II

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gulati, Sneh; George, Florence; Hamid, Shahid

    2017-01-01

    Rising global temperatures are leading to an increase in the number of extreme events and losses (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/). Accurate estimation of these extreme losses with the intention of protecting themselves against them is critical to insurance companies. In a previous paper, Gulati et al. (2014) discussed probable maximum loss (PML) estimation for the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM) using parametric and nonparametric methods. In this paper, we investigate the use of semi-parametric methods to do the same. Detailed analysis of the data shows that the annual losses from FPHLM do not tend to be very heavy tailed, and therefore, neither the popular Hill's method nor the moment's estimator work well. However, Pickand's estimator with threshold around the 84th percentile provides a good fit for the extreme quantiles for the losses.

  5. Top-side ionosphere response to extreme solar events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dmitriev, A. V.; Yeh, H.-C.; Chao, J.-K.; Veselovsky, I. S.; Su, S.-Y.; Fu, C. C.

    2006-07-01

    Strong X-flares and solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes are considered as sources of topside ionospheric disturbances observed by the ROCSAT-1/IPEI instrument during the Bastille Day event on 14 July 2000 and the Halloween event on 28 October-4 November 2003. It was found that within a prestorm period in the dayside ionosphere at altitudes of ~600 km the ion density increased up to ~80% in response to flare-associated enhancements of the solar X-ray emission. Ionospheric response to the SEP events was revealed both at sunlit and nightside hemispheres, where the ion density increased up to ~40% and 100%, respectively. We did not find any prominent response of the ion temperature to the X-ray and SEP enhancements. The largest X-ray and SEP impacts were found for the X17 solar flare on 28 October 2003, which was characterized by the most intense fluxes of solar EUV (Tsurutani et al., 2005) and relativistic solar particles (Veselovsky et al., 2004). Solar events on 14 July 2000 and 29 October 2003 demonstrate weaker impacts with respect to their X-ray and SEP intensities. The weakest ionospheric response is observed for the limb X28 solar flare on 4 November 2003. The topside ionosphere response to the extreme solar events is interpreted in terms of the short-duration impact of the solar electromagnetic radiation and the long-lasting impact of the SEP.

  6. Mixture Random-Effect IRT Models for Controlling Extreme Response Style on Rating Scales

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Hung-Yu

    2016-01-01

    Respondents are often requested to provide a response to Likert-type or rating-scale items during the assessment of attitude, interest, and personality to measure a variety of latent traits. Extreme response style (ERS), which is defined as a consistent and systematic tendency of a person to locate on a limited number of available rating-scale options, may distort the test validity. Several latent trait models have been proposed to address ERS, but all these models have limitations. Mixture random-effect item response theory (IRT) models for ERS are developed in this study to simultaneously identify the mixtures of latent classes from different ERS levels and detect the possible differential functioning items that result from different latent mixtures. The model parameters can be recovered fairly well in a series of simulations that use Bayesian estimation with the WinBUGS program. In addition, the model parameters in the developed models can be used to identify items that are likely to elicit ERS. The results show that a long test and large sample can improve the parameter estimation process; the precision of the parameter estimates increases with the number of response options, and the model parameter estimation outperforms the person parameter estimation. Ignoring the mixtures and ERS results in substantial rank-order changes in the target latent trait and a reduced classification accuracy of the response styles. An empirical survey of emotional intelligence in college students is presented to demonstrate the applications and implications of the new models. PMID:27853444

  7. Quantifying the US Crop Yield in Response to Extreme Climatic Events from 1948 to 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Z.; Zhuang, Q.

    2014-12-01

    The increasingly frequent and severe extreme climatic events (ECEs) under climate changes will negatively affect crop productivity and threat the global food security. Reliable forecast of crop yields response to those ECEs is a prerequisite for developing strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress of quantifying such responses with ecosystem models has been slow. In this study, we first review existing algorithms of yields response to ECEs among major crops (i.e., Corn, Wheat and Soybean) for the United States from a set of process-based crop models. These algorithms are aggregated into four categories of ECEs: drought, heavy precipitation, extreme heat, and frost. Species-specific ECEs thresholds as tipping point of crop yield response curve are examined. Four constraint scalar functions derived for each category of ECEs are then added to an agricultural ecosystem model, CLM-AG, respectively. The revised model is driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1948 to 2013 to estimate the US major crop yields, and then evaluated with county-level yield statistics from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). We also include MODIS NPP product as a reference for the period 2001-2013. Our study will help to identify gaps in capturing yield response to ECEs with contemporary crop models, and provide a guide on developing the new generation of crop models to account for the effects of more future extreme climate events.

  8. Nonparametric functional data estimation applied to ozone data: prediction and extreme value analysis.

    PubMed

    Quintela-del-Río, Alejandro; Francisco-Fernández, Mario

    2011-02-01

    The study of extreme values and prediction of ozone data is an important topic of research when dealing with environmental problems. Classical extreme value theory is usually used in air-pollution studies. It consists in fitting a parametric generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to a data set of extreme values, and using the estimated distribution to compute return levels and other quantities of interest. Here, we propose to estimate these values using nonparametric functional data methods. Functional data analysis is a relatively new statistical methodology that generally deals with data consisting of curves or multi-dimensional variables. In this paper, we use this technique, jointly with nonparametric curve estimation, to provide alternatives to the usual parametric statistical tools. The nonparametric estimators are applied to real samples of maximum ozone values obtained from several monitoring stations belonging to the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) in the UK. The results show that nonparametric estimators work satisfactorily, outperforming the behaviour of classical parametric estimators. Functional data analysis is also used to predict stratospheric ozone concentrations. We show an application, using the data set of mean monthly ozone concentrations in Arosa, Switzerland, and the results are compared with those obtained by classical time series (ARIMA) analysis.

  9. Estimating the exceedance probability of extreme rainfalls up to the probable maximum precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nathan, Rory; Jordan, Phillip; Scorah, Matthew; Lang, Simon; Kuczera, George; Schaefer, Melvin; Weinmann, Erwin

    2016-12-01

    If risk-based criteria are used in the design of high hazard structures (such as dam spillways and nuclear power stations), then it is necessary to estimate the annual exceedance probability (AEP) of extreme rainfalls up to and including the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). This paper describes the development and application of two largely independent methods to estimate the frequencies of such extreme rainfalls. One method is based on stochastic storm transposition (SST), which combines the "arrival" and "transposition" probabilities of an extreme storm using the total probability theorem. The second method, based on "stochastic storm regression" (SSR), combines frequency curves of point rainfalls with regression estimates of local and transposed areal rainfalls; rainfall maxima are generated by stochastically sampling the independent variates, where the required exceedance probabilities are obtained using the total probability theorem. The methods are applied to two large catchments (with areas of 3550 km2 and 15,280 km2) located in inland southern Australia. Both methods were found to provide similar estimates of the frequency of extreme areal rainfalls for the two study catchments. The best estimates of the AEP of the PMP for the smaller and larger of the catchments were found to be 10-7 and 10-6, respectively, but the uncertainty of these estimates spans one to two orders of magnitude. Additionally, the SST method was applied to a range of locations within a meteorologically homogenous region to investigate the nature of the relationship between the AEP of PMP and catchment area.

  10. On the response of European phenology to Extreme Climate Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guido, C.; Gobron, N.

    2012-12-01

    Extreme Climate Events are expected to alter carbon cycle processes, with implications for ecosystems and feedback to regional and global climate. Hence, understanding the interactions between Extreme Climate Events and vegetation dynamics is essential for improved climate prediction. In this work, the authors analyze carbon cycle dynamics over the European domain using Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) derived from Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) data (1997-2002) and MERIS (2003-2011) at ~1 km resolution. As part of this analysis, six phenological metrics were defined from FAPAR measurement to characterize the ecosystem response to climate and anthropogenic forcing at the land surface. Based on phenological metrics analysis, the inter-annual vegetation variations, their dependence on drought and heat waves, and the presence of long-term trends were detected. In addition, the authors have assessed Rain Use Efficiency (RUE), represented by the ratio of annual sum FAPAR and annual rainfall, and the correlation between FAPAR, precipitation and temperature anomalies over the same time period. Climate anomalies largely explain the recent anomalies of FAPAR- and consequently of carbon cycle. Hence, well-defined large scale patterns of RUE and phenological metrics are discernible: the large scale drought that struck Europe in year 2003 has a distinct signature, as well as the continuous positive anomaly during summer 2002 (due to intense rainfall) is well-depicted.

  11. Flood Frequency Estimates and Documented and Potential Extreme Peak Discharges in Oklahoma

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tortorelli, Robert L.; McCabe, Lan P.

    2001-01-01

    Knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of floods is required for the safe and economical design of highway bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other structures on or near streams; and for flood plain management programs. Flood frequency estimates for gaged streamflow sites were updated, documented extreme peak discharges for gaged and miscellaneous measurement sites were tabulated, and potential extreme peak discharges for Oklahoma streamflow sites were estimated. Potential extreme peak discharges, derived from the relation between documented extreme peak discharges and contributing drainage areas, can provide valuable information concerning the maximum peak discharge that could be expected at a stream site. Potential extreme peak discharge is useful in conjunction with flood frequency analysis to give the best evaluation of flood risk at a site. Peak discharge and flood frequency for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years were estimated for 352 gaged streamflow sites. Data through 1999 water year were used from streamflow-gaging stations with at least 8 years of record within Oklahoma or about 25 kilometers into the bordering states of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico, and Texas. These sites were in unregulated basins, and basins affected by regulation, urbanization, and irrigation. Documented extreme peak discharges and associated data were compiled for 514 sites in and near Oklahoma, 352 with streamflow-gaging stations and 162 at miscellaneous measurements sites or streamflow-gaging stations with short record, with a total of 671 measurements.The sites are fairly well distributed statewide, however many streams, large and small, have never been monitored. Potential extreme peak-discharge curves were developed for streamflow sites in hydrologic regions of the state based on documented extreme peak discharges and the contributing drainage areas. Two hydrologic regions, east and west, were defined using 98 degrees 15 minutes longitude as the

  12. Estimating Single-Trial Responses in EEG

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shah, A. S.; Knuth, K. H.; Truccolo, W. A.; Mehta, A. D.; Fu, K. G.; Johnston, T. A.; Ding, M.; Bressler, S. L.; Schroeder, C. E.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Accurate characterization of single-trial field potential responses is critical from a number of perspectives. For example, it allows differentiation of an evoked response from ongoing EEG. We previously developed the multiple component Event Related Potential (mcERP) algorithm to improve resolution of the single-trial evoked response. The mcERP model states that multiple components, each specified by a stereotypic waveform varying in latency and amplitude from trial to trial, comprise the evoked response. Application of the mcERP algorithm to simulated data with three independent, synthetic components has shown that the model is capable of separating these components and estimating their variability. Application of the model to single trial, visual evoked potentials recorded simultaneously from all V1 laminae in an awake, fixating macaque yielded local and far-field components. Certain local components estimated by the model were distributed in both granular and supragranular laminae. This suggests a linear coupling between the responses of thalamo-recipient neuronal ensembles and subsequent responses of supragranular neuronal ensembles, as predicted by the feedforward anatomy of V1. Our results indicate that the mcERP algorithm provides a valid estimation of single-trial responses. This will enable analyses that depend on trial-to-trial variations and those that require separation of the evoked response from background EEG rhythms

  13. Bacterial survival responses to extreme desiccation and high humidity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Yinjie; Yokobori, Shinichi; Yamagishi, Akihiko

    The presence of water is thought to be essential for life and strongly considered in life searching operation on extraterrestrial planets. In this study we show different survival responses of bacterial species to water availability and temperatures (25, 4 and - 70 o C). At these temperatures, E.coli lost viability much faster under extreme desiccation than under high humidity. Deinococcus radiodurans exhibited much higher survival rate under desiccation than under high humidity at 25 o C, while its survivals under desiccation and high humidity increased to the same level at 4 and - 70 o C. Bacillus pumilus spores generally survived well under all tested conditions. Water is favorable for the survival of most microorganisms but not a "safeguard" for all microorganisms. Microbial survival at low temperatures may not be affected by water availability. Water absence should not preclude us from seeking life on other planets.

  14. Extreme flood response to short-duration convective rainfall in South-West Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz-Villanueva, V.; Borga, M.; Zoccatelli, D.; Marchi, L.; Gaume, E.; Ehret, U.

    2012-05-01

    The 2 June 2008 flood-producing storm on the Starzel river basin in South-West Germany is examined as a prototype for organized convective systems that dominate the upper tail of the precipitation frequency distribution and are likely responsible for the flash flood peaks in Central Europe. The availability of high-resolution rainfall estimates from radar observations and a rain gauge network, together with indirect peak discharge estimates from a detailed post-event survey, provided the opportunity to study in detail the hydrometeorological and hydrological mechanisms associated with this extreme storm and the ensuing flood. Radar-derived rainfall, streamgauge data and indirect estimates of peak discharges are used along with a distributed hydrologic model to reconstruct hydrographs at multiple locations. Observations and model results are combined to examine two main questions, (i) assessment of the distribution of the runoff ratio for the 2008 flash flood and how it compares with other less severe floods; and (ii) analysis of how the spatial and temporal distribution of the extreme rainfall, and more specifically storm motion, controls the flood response. It is shown that small runoff ratios (less than 20%) characterized the runoff response and that these values are in the range of other, less extreme, flood events. The influence of storm structure, evolution and motion on the modeled flood hydrograph is examined by using the "spatial moments of catchment rainfall". It is shown that downbasin storm motion (in the range of 0.7-0.9 m s-1) had a noticeable impact on flood response by increasing the modeled flood peak by 13%.

  15. How reliable are the estimates of climate variability in extreme precipitation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zolina, O.; Simmer, C.; Gulev, S.

    2009-09-01

    Existing estimates of climate variability and trends in precipitation extremes are highly uncertain when quantified from daily and higher resolution rain gauge observations. The major sources of uncertainties are associated with the conceptual definition of extreme precipitation, inhomogeneity of different data types and inaccuracy of statistical methods applied for estimation of precipitation extremes. We assess the impact of these uncertainties on climate variability in extreme precipitation over European continent using different collections of European rain gauge data. We try to discriminate the role of changing precipitation totals and varying characteristics of frequency distributions in forming observed changes in precipitation extremes. These two factors have strong seasonal dependence over Europe with winter growth up to 5% per decade being associated with change in precipitation distribution and summer decrease of 3% per decade primarily implied by changes in total. Changes in extreme precipitation in Western Europe are primarily dominated by frequency distribution characteristics while in the Eastern Europe they are closely linked to the changes in totals. Considering limitations of precipitation metrics based on raw data, we argue for the revision of extreme precipitation indices whose applicability is conditioned by the finite number of wet days and propose a set of new indices based on the newly derived distribution of fractional contribution (DFC) of daily precipitation to the total. The extended indices are more stable compared to the routine ones. In winter new set of indices clearly reveals an increasing occurrence of extreme precipitation in Western European Russia (up to 4% per decade) while during summer a downward tendency in the fractional contribution of very wet days is found in Central Western Europe. Newly established indices also allow to better associate European extreme precipitation with the North Atlantic Oscillation and associated

  16. Placing Bounds on Extreme Temperature Response of Maize to Improve Crop Model Intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, C.; Babcock, B.; Peng, Y.; Gassman, P. W.; Campbell, T.

    2015-12-01

    We propose the development of community-based estimates for bounds on maize sensitivity to extreme temperature. We use model-based, observation-driven soil moisture climatology in a high maize production region in the United States to develop bounds on high temperature sensitivity through its dependence on available water. For the portion of the region with relatively long growing season, yield reduction per degree-C is 10% for high water availability and 32.5% for low water availability. Where the growing season is shorter, yield reduction per degree-C is 6% for high water availability and 27% for low water availability. High temperature sensitivity is indeterminate where extreme temperature yield effect does not yet exceed excessive water yield effect. We suggest new soil moisture climatology from reanalysis datasets could be used to develop community-based estimates of high temperature sensitivity that would significantly improve the accuracy of maize temperature sensitivity bounds, their regional variability, and their importance relative to other weather yield shocks. A community-based estimate would substantially improve evaluation of crop system simulation models and provide baseline information for evaluation of adaptation options. For instance, since process models are needed for evaluation of crop system adaptation response under climate projections, a community-developed estimate would provide a clear target for process model evaluation. Furthermore, the range of extreme temperature sensitivity from empirical models would provide a lower bound on variability that could be achieved from process models. If the process models achieved this bound, it would mean the uncertainty among their simulations would be primarily from observational limitations than differences in model response. While we demonstrate the potential in the context of maize, the concept could be implemented within any crop production system.

  17. Remote Sensing of Surficial Process Responses to Extreme Meteorological Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brakenridge, G. Robert

    1997-01-01

    . Karen Prestegaard at the University of Maryland (geomorphological responses to the extreme 1993 flood along the Raccoon drainage in central Iowa), and with Mr Tim Scrom of the Albany National Weather Service River Forecast Center (initial planning for the use of Radarsat and ERS-2 for flood warning). The work thus initiated with this proposal is continuing.

  18. Response of the Arctic Freshwater Budget to Extreme NAO Forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Condron, A.; Winsor, P.

    2007-12-01

    Freshwater release from the Arctic to the deepwater convective regions of the Labrador and Nordic Seas is understood to play an important role in steering decadal global climate variability. An observed freshening of the North Atlantic since the mid-1960s appears to be related to changes in the export of freshwater from the Arctic, and the persistence of a high North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during this period. However, the specific response of the Arctic freshwater budget to the NAO is unclear. To investigate this response we use a high resolution (1/3 degree) regional version of the ocean-only MITgcm forced for 12 years with daily NCEP reanalysis data from 1992-2001. At this resolution the model resolves the major Arctic transport pathways, including the Bering Strait and Canadian Archipelago. We ran the model twice, keeping all reanalysis fields the same in both cases, but repeat the wind field of two contrasting NAO years in each run for the extreme negative and positive NAO phases of 1969 and 1989, respectively. Our results highlight a clear response in the Arctic freshwater budget to NAO forcing. Repeat NAO negative wind forcing results in virtually all freshwater being retained in the Arctic. In contrast, repeat NAO positive forcing increases the freshwater export out of the Arctic, primarily via the Fram Strait (54%) and Canadian Archipelago (29%), and results in a total loss in freshwater storage of 14000 km3. We find that the freshwater export via these two pathways increases by virtually the same amount (approx 700 km3 per yr) between the two forcing scenarios, highlighting the important role that the Canadian Archipelago plays in redistributing the freshwater of the Arctic.

  19. Placing bounds on extreme temperature response of maize

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, Christopher J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Peng, Yixing; Gassman, Philip W.; Campbell, Todd D.

    2015-12-01

    Plant water availability is a key factor that determines maize yield response to excess heat. Lack of available data has limited researchers’ ability to estimate this relationship at regional and global scales. Using a new soil moisture data set developed by running a crop growth simulator over historical data we demonstrate how current estimates of maize yield sensitivity to high temperature are misleading. We develop an empirical model relating observed yields to climate variables and soil moisture in a high maize production region in the United States to develop bounds on yield sensitivity to high temperatures. For the portion of the region with a relatively long growing season, yield reduction per °C is 10% for high water availability and 32.5% for low water availability. Where the growing season is shorter, yield reduction per °C is 6% for high water availability and 27% for low water availability. These results indicate the importance of using both water availability and temperature to model crop yield response to explain future climate change on crop yields.

  20. Estimating return periods for daily precipitation extreme events over the Brazilian Amazon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, Eliane Barbosa; Lucio, Paulo Sérgio; Santos e Silva, Cláudio Moisés

    2016-11-01

    This paper aims to model the occurrence of daily precipitation extreme events and to estimate the return period of these events through the extreme value theory (generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD)). The GEV and GPD were applied in precipitation series of homogeneous regions of the Brazilian Amazon. The GEV and GPD goodness of fit were evaluated by quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot and by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. The Q-Q plot suggests that the probability distributions of the studied series are appropriated, and these results were confirmed by the KS test, which demonstrates that the tested distributions have a good fit in all sub-regions of Amazon, thus adequate to study the daily precipitation extreme event. For all return levels studied, more intense precipitation extremes is expected to occur within the South sub-regions and the coastal area of the Brazilian Amazon. The results possibly will have some practical application in local extreme weather forecast.

  1. Agricultural Irrigation Demand Response Estimation Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Olsen, Daniel

    2014-02-01

    This program is used to model the energy demand of agricultural irrigation pumps, used to maintain soil moisture levels in irrigated fields. This modeling is accomplished using historical data from evapotranspirationmeasuring weather stations (from the California Irrigation Management Information System) as well as irrigation system characteristics for the field(s) to be modeled. The modelled energy demand is used to estimate the achievable demand response (DR) potential of the field(s), for use in assessing the value of the DR for the utility company. The program can accept input data with varying degrees of rigor, and estimate the uncertainty of the output accordingly.

  2. Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2016-05-01

    A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

  3. Development of a censored modelling approach for stochastic estimation of rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Bernardara, Pietro

    2016-04-01

    With the COP21 drawing to a close in December 2015, storms Desmond, Eva and Frank which swept across the UK and Ireland causing widespread flooding and devastation have acted as a timely reminder of the need for reliable estimation of rainfall extremes in a changing climate. The frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes are predicted to increase in the UK under anthropogenic climate change, and it is notable that the UK's 24 hour rainfall record of 316mm set in Seathwaite, Cumbria in 2009 was broken on the 5 December 2015 with 341mm by storm Desmond at Honister Pass also in Cumbria. Immediate analysis of the latter by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UK) on the 8 December 2015 estimated that this is approximately equivalent to a 1300 year return period event (Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, 2015). Rainfall extremes are typically estimated using extreme value analysis and intensity duration frequency curves. This study investigates the potential for using stochastic rainfall simulation with mechanistic rectangular pulse models for estimation of extreme rainfall. These models have been used since the late 1980s to generate synthetic rainfall time-series at point locations for scenario analysis in hydrological studies and climate impact assessment at the catchment scale. Routinely they are calibrated to the full historical hyetograph and used for continuous simulation. However, their extremal performance is variable with a tendency to underestimate short duration (hourly and sub-hourly) rainfall extremes which are often associated with heavy convective rainfall in temporal climates such as the UK. Focussing on hourly and sub-hourly rainfall, a censored modelling approach is proposed in which rainfall below a low threshold is set to zero prior to model calibration. It is hypothesised that synthetic rainfall time-series are poor at estimating extremes because the majority of the training data are not representative of the climatic conditions which give rise to

  4. Response and Recovery of Streams From an Extreme Flood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kantack, K. M.; Renshaw, C. E.; Magilligan, F. J.; Dethier, E.

    2015-12-01

    In temperate regions, channels are expected to recover from intense floods in a matter of months to years, but quantitative empirical support for this idea remains limited. Moreover, existing literature fails to address the spatial variability of the recovery process. Using an emerging technology, we investigate the immediate response to and progressive recovery of channels in the Northeastern United States from an extreme flood. We seek to determine what factors, including the nature and extent of the immediate response of the channel to the flood and post-flood availability of sediment, contribute to the spatial variability of the rate of recovery. Taking advantage of the 2011 flooding from Tropical Storm Irene, for which pre- and post-flood aerial lidar exist, along with a third set of terrestrial lidar collected in 2015, we assess channel response and recovery with multi-temporal lidar comparison. This method, with kilometers of continuous data, allows for analysis beyond traditional cross-section and reach-scale studies. Results indicate that landscape-scale factors, such as valley morphology and gradients in unit stream power, are controls on channel response to the flood, producing spatially variable impacts. Along a 16.4-km section (drainage area = 82 km2) of the Deerfield River in Vermont, over 148,000 m3 or erosion occurred during the flood. The spatial variation of impacts was correlated (R2= 0.476) with the ratio of channel width to valley width. We expect the recovery process will similarly exhibit spatial variation in rate and magnitude, possibly being governed by gradients in unit stream power and sediment availability. We test the idea that channel widening during the flood reduces post-flood unit stream power, creating a pathway for deposition and recovery to pre-flood width. Flood-widened reaches downstream of point-sources of sediment, such as landslides, will recover more quickly than those without consistent sediment supply. Results of this

  5. Sampling properties of the maximum entropy estimators for the extreme-value type-1 distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phien, Huynh Ngoc

    1986-10-01

    The extreme-value type-1 (EV1) distribution can be viewed as the distribution that satisfies two specified expected values. These expected values give rise to a method of parameter estimation referred to as the method of maximum entropy (MME). The main purpose of this note is to provide a scheme to estimate the variances and covariance of the MME estimators. As a by-product of the simulation runs used, some useful sampling properties of the MME estimators are obtained. These clearly show that the MME is a good method for fitting the EV1 distribution, and the approximations obtained analytically for the variance of estimates of the T-year event are of sufficient accuracy.

  6. The Relationship between Spatial and Temporal Magnitude Estimation of Scientific Concepts at Extreme Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, Aaron; Lee, H.

    2010-01-01

    Many astronomical objects, processes, and events exist and occur at extreme scales of spatial and temporal magnitudes. Our research draws upon the psychological literature, replete with evidence of linguistic and metaphorical links between the spatial and temporal domains, to compare how students estimate spatial and temporal magnitudes associated with objects and processes typically taught in science class.. We administered spatial and temporal scale estimation tests, with many astronomical items, to 417 students enrolled in 12 undergraduate science courses. Results show that while the temporal test was more difficult, students’ overall performance patterns between the two tests were mostly similar. However, asymmetrical correlations between the two tests indicate that students think of the extreme ranges of spatial and temporal scales in different ways, which is likely influenced by their classroom experience. When making incorrect estimations, students tended to underestimate the difference between the everyday scale and the extreme scales on both tests. This suggests the use of a common logarithmic mental number line for both spatial and temporal magnitude estimation. However, there are differences between the two tests in the errors student make in the everyday range. Among the implications discussed is the use of spatio-temporal reference frames, instead of smooth bootstrapping, to help students maneuver between scales of magnitude and the use of logarithmic transformations between reference frames. Implications for astronomy range from learning about spectra to large scale galaxy structure.

  7. Combination of radar and daily precipitation data to estimate meaningful sub-daily point precipitation extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bárdossy, András; Pegram, Geoffrey

    2017-01-01

    The use of radar measurements for the space time estimation of precipitation has for many decades been a central topic in hydro-meteorology. In this paper we are interested specifically in daily and sub-daily extreme values of precipitation at gauged or ungauged locations which are important for design. The purpose of the paper is to develop a methodology to combine daily precipitation observations and radar measurements to estimate sub-daily extremes at point locations. Radar data corrected using precipitation-reflectivity relationships lead to biased estimations of extremes. Different possibilities of correcting systematic errors using the daily observations are investigated. Observed gauged daily amounts are interpolated to unsampled points and subsequently disaggregated using the sub-daily values obtained by the radar. Different corrections based on the spatial variability and the subdaily entropy of scaled rainfall distributions are used to provide unbiased corrections of short duration extremes. Additionally a statistical procedure not based on a matching day by day correction is tested. In this last procedure as we are only interested in rare extremes, low to medium values of rainfall depth were neglected leaving a small number of L days of ranked daily maxima in each set per year, whose sum typically comprises about 50% of each annual rainfall total. The sum of these L day maxima is first iterpolated using a Kriging procedure. Subsequently this sum is disaggregated to daily values using a nearest neighbour procedure. The daily sums are then disaggregated by using the relative values of the biggest L radar based days. Of course, the timings of radar and gauge maxima can be different, so the method presented here uses radar for disaggregating daily gauge totals down to 15 min intervals in order to extract the maxima of sub-hourly through to daily rainfall. The methodologies were tested in South Africa, where an S-band radar operated relatively continuously at

  8. Estimating the impact of extreme climatic events on riverine sediment transport: new tools and methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lajeunesse, E.; Delacourt, C.; Allemand, P.; Limare, A.; Dessert, C.; Ammann, J.; Grandjean, P.

    2010-12-01

    A series of recent works have underlined that the flux of material exported outside of a watershed is dramatically increased during extreme climatic events, such as storms, tropical cyclones and hurricanes [Dadson et al., 2003 and 2004; Hilton et al., 2008]. Indeed the exceptionally high rainfall rates reached during these events trigger runoff and landsliding which destabilize slopes and accumulate a significant amount of sediments in flooded rivers. This observation raises the question of the control that extreme climatic events might exert on the denudation rate and the morphology of watersheds. Addressing this questions requires to measure sediment transport in flooded rivers. However most conventional sediment monitoring technics rely on manned operated measurements which cannot be performed during extreme climatic events. Monitoring riverine sediment transport during extreme climatic events remains therefore a challenging issue because of the lack of instruments and methodologies adapted to such extreme conditions. In this paper, we present a new methodology aimed at estimating the impact of extreme events on sediment transport in rivers. Our approach relies on the development of two instruments. The first one is an in-situ optical instrument, based on a LISST-25X sensor, capable of measuring both the water level and the concentration of suspended matter in rivers with a time step going from one measurement every hour at low flow to one measurement every 2 minutes during a flood. The second instrument is a remote controlled drone helicopter used to acquire high resolution stereophotogrammetric images of river beds used to compute DEMs and to estimate how flash floods impact the granulometry and the morphology of the river. These two instruments were developed and tested during a 1.5 years field survey performed from june 2007 to january 2009 on the Capesterre river located on Basse-Terre island (Guadeloupe archipelago, Lesser Antilles Arc).

  9. Observations and estimates of wave-driven water level extremes at the Marshall Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merrifield, M. A.; Becker, J. M.; Ford, M.; Yao, Y.

    2014-10-01

    Wave-driven extreme water levels are examined for coastlines protected by fringing reefs using field observations obtained in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The 2% exceedence water level near the shoreline due to waves is estimated empirically for the study sites from breaking wave height at the outer reef and by combining separate contributions from setup, sea and swell, and infragravity waves, which are estimated based on breaking wave height and water level over the reef flat. Although each component exhibits a tidal dependence, they sum to yield a 2% exceedence level that does not. A hindcast based on the breaking wave height parameterization is used to assess factors leading to flooding at Roi-Namur caused by an energetic swell event during December 2008. Extreme water levels similar to December 2008 are projected to increase significantly with rising sea level as more wave and tide events combine to exceed inundation threshold levels.

  10. Estimation of extreme precipitation; Return period values and PMP for Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engen-Skaugen, Torill; Alfnes, Eli; Førland, Eirik J.

    2010-05-01

    Estimates of extreme values of precipitation represented as return period values and Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) are frequently used in flood evaluation as well as dimensioning of hydro power dams. The estimates are also of interest for infrastructure constructions (e.g. urban runoff). The estimates establish a reference to how rare a heavy rainfall event at a location is. This study presents present-day and future return period values and PMP estimates for several catchments in Norway. Daily precipitation values are extracted from grids covering the Norwegian mainland, spatial resolution 1 x 1 km2, for the time period 1957 - 2009. The grids are interpolated from observations at all available rain gage stations operated by the Norwegian Meteorolgoical Institute in Norway. The maps can be seen at http://senorge.no (Mohr, 2009; Jansson et al., 2007). The rain gauge network in the high mountain region is sparse, leading to reduced quality in these regions. A rough correction of daily gauge precipitation for undercatch because of wind exposure is performed before interpolation. Six climate projections downscaled with different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are adjusted to be representative locally for the Norwegian mainland (Engen-Skaugen, 2007). Daily precipitation projections are established for the same grid extent as for observations. Time series of daily precipitation are then extracted from these grids representing the same catchments as the historic data. The estimates of extreme precipitation are based on daily precipitation values (Førland, 1992; Alfnes, 2007). Instead of producing area estimates based on site values adjusted by an Area Reduction Factor (ARF), area estimates in the present study is based on time series of daily precipitation representing the actual catchments extracted from the high resolution grids. Alfnes (2007) found that the five-year return value estimates (M5) for these two methods were similar, with exceptions for catchments

  11. Progressive and biphasic cardiac responses during extreme mountain ultramarathon.

    PubMed

    Maufrais, Claire; Millet, Grégoire P; Schuster, Iris; Rupp, Thomas; Nottin, Stéphane

    2016-05-15

    Investigations on the cardiac function consequences of mountain ultramarathon (MUM) >100 h are lacking. The present study assessed the progressive cardiac responses during the world's most challenging MUM (Tor des Géants; Italy; 330 km; 24,000 m of cumulative elevation gain). Resting echocardiographic evaluation of morphology, function, and mechanics of left and right ventricle (LV and RV) including speckle tracking echocardiography was conducted in 15 male participants (46 ± 13 yr) before (pre), during (mid; 148 km), and after (post) the race. Runners completed the race in 126 ± 15 h. From pre to post, the increase in stroke volume (SV) (103 ± 19 vs. 110 ± 23 vs. 116 ± 21 ml; P < 0.001 at pre, mid, and post) was concomitant to the increase in LV early filling (peak E; 72.9 ± 15.7 vs. 74.6 ± 13.1 vs. 82.1 ± 11.5 cm/s; P < 0.05). Left and right atrial end-diastolic areas, RV end-diastolic area, and LV end-diastolic volume were 12-19% higher at post compared with pre (P < 0.05). Resting heart rate and LV systolic strain rates demonstrated a biphasic adaptation with an increase from pre to mid (55 ± 8 vs. 72 ± 11 beats/min, P < 0.001) and a return to baseline values from mid to post (59 ± 8 beats/min). Significant correlations were found between pre-to-post percent changes in peak E and LV end-diastolic volume (r = 0.63, P < 0.05) or RV (r = 0.82, P < 0.001) or atrial end-diastolic areas (r = 0.83, P < 0.001). An extreme MUM induced a biphasic pattern of heart rate in parallel with specific cardiac responses characterized by a progressive increase in diastolic filling, biventricular volumes, and SV. The underlying mechanisms and their clinical implications remain challenging for the future.

  12. Extreme Response in Tension and Compression of Tantalum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Remington, Tane Perry

    This research on a model bcc metal, tantalum, has three components: the study of tensile failure; defects generated under a nanoindenter; and dislocation velocities in an extreme regime generated by pulsed lasers. The processes of dynamic failure by spalling were established in nano, poly, and mono crystalline tantalum in recovery experiments following laser compression and release. The process of spall was characterized by different techniques: optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, microcomputerized tomography and electron backscatter diffraction. Additionally, the pull back signal was measured by VISAR and the pressure decay was compared with HYADES simulations. There are clear differences in the microscopic fracture mechanisms, dictated by the grain sizes. In the nano and poly crystals, spalling occurred by ductile fracture favoring grain boundaries. In the monocrystals, grain boundaries are absent, and the process was of ductile failure by void initiation, growth and coalescence. The spall strength of single crystalline tantalum was higher than the poly and nano crystals. It was experimentally confirmed that spall strength in tantalum increases with strain rate. In order to generate dislocations close to the surface, single crystalline tantalum with orientations (100), (110) and (111) was nanoindented with a Berkovich tip. Atomic force microscopy showed pile-ups of dislocations around the perimeter of the nanoindentations. Sections of nanoindentations were focused ion beam cut into transmission electron microscope foils. The mechanisms of deformation under a nanoindentation in tantalum were identified and quantified. Molecular dynamics simulations were conducted and the simulated plastic deformation proceeds by the formation of nanotwins, which rapidly evolve into shear dislocation loops. Dislocation densities under the indenter were estimated experimentally (~1.2 x 1015 m-2), by MD (~7 x1015 m-2) and through an analytical calculation (2.6--19 x10

  13. On the possibilities of watershed parameterization for extreme flow estimation in ungauged basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohnová, S.; Karabová, B.; Hlavčová, K.

    2015-06-01

    The estimation of design discharges and water levels of extreme floods is one of the most important parts of the design process for a large number of engineering projects and studies. Design flood estimates require a consideration of the hydrological, meteorological and physiographical situation, the legal requirements, and the available estimation techniques and methods. In the last decades changes in floods have been observed (Hall et al., 2014) which makes design flood estimation particularly challenging. Methods of design flood estimation can be applied either locally or regionally. A significant problem may arise in small catchments that are poorly gauged or when no recorded data exist. To obtain the design values in such cases, many countries have adopted procedures that fit the local conditions and requirements. One of these methods is the Soil Conservation Service - Curve number (SCS-CN) method which is often used in design flood estimation for ungauged sites, including those in Slovakia. Since the method was derived on the basis of the specific characteristics of selected river basins in the United States, it may lead to significant uncertainties in other countries with different hydrological conditions. The aim of this study was to test the SCN-CN method and derive regional runoff curve numbers based on rainfall and discharge measurements for selected region in Slovakia. The results show that the classical CN method gives too high estimates of event runoff depths and is not valid in the study area. To avoid the overestimation of runoff caused by extreme rainfall events, the use of the empirically derived regional runoff curves was tested and finally proposed for practical application in engineering hydrology.

  14. Selected human physiological responses during extreme heat: the Badwater Ultramarathon.

    PubMed

    Brown, Jacqueline S; Connolly, Declan A

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of this article was to examine various physiological responses during an ultramarathon held in extreme heat. Our investigation was conducted at The Badwater Ultramarathon, a nonstop 217-km run across Death Valley, CA, USA. This study recruited 4 male athletes, average age of 43 (±SD) (±7.35), (range) 39-54 years. All 4 subjects successfully completed the race with a mean finish time of 36:20:23 hours (±SD) (±3:08:38) (range) 34:05:25-40:51:46 hours, and a mean running speed of 6.03 km·h(-1) (±SD) (±0.05), (range) 5.3-6.4 km·h(-1). The anthropometric variables measured were (mean, ±SD) mass 79.33 kg (±6.43), height 1.80 m (±0.09), body surface area 1.93 m2 (±0.16), body mass index 24.38 kg·m(-2) (±1.25), fat mass 13.88% (±2.29), and body water 62.08% (±1.56). Selected physiological variables measured were core body temperature, skin temperature, heart rate, breathing rate, and blood pressure. Rate of perceived intensity, rate of thermal sensation, and environmental factors were also monitored. Our study found (mean and ±SD) core body temperature 37.49° C (±0.88); skin temperature 31.13° C (±3.06); heart rate 106.79 b·min(-1) (±5.11); breathing rate 36.55 b·min(-1) (±0.60); blood pressure 128/86 mm Hg (±9.24/4.62); rate of perceived intensity 5.49 (±1.26); rate of thermal sensation 4.69 (±0.37); daytime high temperature of 46.6° C, and a mean temperature of 28.35° C. Our fastest finisher demonstrated a lower overall core body temperature (36.91° C) when compared with the group mean (37.49° C). In contrast to previous findings, our data show that the fastest finisher demonstrates a lower overall core body temperature. We conclude that it may be possible that a time threshold exists whereby success in longer duration events requires an ability to maintain a lower core body temperature vs. tolerating a higher core body temperature.

  15. Estimation of extreme daily precipitation: comparison between regional and geostatistical approaches.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellies, Matteo; Deidda, Roberto; Langousis, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    We study the extreme rainfall regime of the Island of Sardinia in Italy, based on annual maxima of daily precipitation. The statistical analysis is conducted using 229 daily rainfall records with at least 50 complete years of observations, collected at different sites by the Hydrological Survey of the Sardinia Region. Preliminary analysis, and the L-skewness and L-kurtosis diagrams, show that the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution model performs best in describing daily rainfall extremes. The GEV distribution parameters are estimated using the method of Probability Weighted Moments (PWM). To obtain extreme rainfall estimates at ungauged sites, while minimizing uncertainties due to sampling variability, a regional and a geostatistical approach are compared. The regional approach merges information from different gauged sites, within homogeneous regions, to obtain GEV parameter estimates at ungauged locations. The geostatistical approach infers the parameters of the GEV distribution model at locations where measurements are available, and then spatially interpolates them over the study region. In both approaches we use local rainfall means as index-rainfall. In the regional approach we define homogeneous regions by applying a hierarchical cluster analysis based on Ward's method, with L-moment ratios (i.e. L-CV and L-Skewness) as metrics. The analysis results in four contiguous regions, which satisfy the Hosking and Wallis (1997) homogeneity tests. The latter have been conducted using a Monte-Carlo approach based on a 4-parameter Kappa distribution model, fitted to each station cluster. Note that the 4-parameter Kappa model includes the GEV distribution as a sub-case, when the fourth parameter h is set to 0. In the geostatistical approach we apply kriging for uncertain data (KUD), which accounts for the error variance in local parameter estimation and, therefore, may serve as a useful tool for spatial interpolation of metrics affected by high uncertainty. In

  16. Estimating Reduced Consumption for Dynamic Demand Response

    SciTech Connect

    Chelmis, Charalampos; Aman, Saima; Saeed, Muhammad Rizwan; Frincu, Marc; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2015-01-30

    Growing demand is straining our existing electricity generation facilities and requires active participation of the utility and the consumers to achieve energy sustainability. One of the most effective and widely used ways to achieve this goal in the smart grid is demand response (DR), whereby consumers reduce their electricity consumption in response to a request sent from the utility whenever it anticipates a peak in demand. To successfully plan and implement demand response, the utility requires reliable estimate of reduced consumption during DR. This also helps in optimal selection of consumers and curtailment strategies during DR. While much work has been done on predicting normal consumption, reduced consumption prediction is an open problem that is under-studied. In this paper, we introduce and formalize the problem of reduced consumption prediction, and discuss the challenges associated with it. We also describe computational methods that use historical DR data as well as pre-DR conditions to make such predictions. Our experiments are conducted in the real-world setting of a university campus microgrid, and our preliminary results set the foundation for more detailed modeling.

  17. Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

    2013-12-01

    In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example

  18. Asian monsoon extremes and humanity's response over the past millennium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buckley, B. M.; Lieberman, V. B.; Zottoli, B.

    2012-12-01

    The first decade of the 21st century has seen significant development in the production of paleo proxies for the Asian monsoon, exemplified by the Monsoon Asian Drought Atlas that was comprised of more than 300 tree ring chronologies. Noteworthy among them is the Vietnamese cypress tree-ring record which reveals that the two worst droughts of the past 7 centuries, each more than a decade in length, coincided with the demise of the Khmer civilization at Angkor in the early 15th century CE. The 18th century was nearly as tumultuous a period across Southeast Asia, where several polities fell against a backdrop of epic decadal-scale droughts. At this time all of the region's charter states saw rapid realignment in the face of drought, famine, disease and a raft of related and unrelated social issues. Several other droughts, some more extreme but of lesser duration, punctuate the past millennium, but appear to have had little societal impact. Historical documentation is being used not only to provide corroborative evidence of tree-ring reconstructed climate extremes, but to attempt to understand the dynamics of the coupled human-natural systems involved, and to define what kinds of thresholds need to be reached before societies respond. This paleo perspective can assist our analyses of the role of climate extremes in the collapse or disruption of regional societies, a subject of increasing concern given the uncertainties surrounding projections for future climate across the highly populated areas of Asia.

  19. Contact lenses in extreme cold environments: response of rabbit corneas.

    PubMed

    Socks, J F

    1982-04-01

    Contact lenses are worn by many individuals in military and civilian populations. Anecdotal reports have described contact lenses "sticking" and "freezing" to the eye during extreme cold conditions. However, some articles indicate the advantages of wearing contact lenses in cold environments. Military operations frequently taken place in cold regions; therefore, we need to known whether contact lenses can be worn safely in extreme cold. Rabbits were fitted with hard (polymethyl methacrylate) contact lenses and exposed to -28.9 degrees C temperatures with winds up to 78 mph (125 km/hr) for 3-hr periods. The wind-chill factor in these conditions exceeded -67.8 degrees C. No effects of the cold or contact lenses were seen in 85% of the eyes. A few of the eyes, both with contact lenses and without, showed mild superficial fluorescein staining of the cornea which cleared within a few ours after exposure. Histologic examination of the corneas revealed no abnormalities attributable to the cold. Inasmuch as this study showed that rabbits wearing contact lenses in extreme cold suffered no acute deleterious effects to the eyes, the research can be expanded to include human subjects.

  20. Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hlavčová, Kamila; Lapin, Milan; Valent, Peter; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Rončák, Peter

    2015-09-01

    In order to estimate possible changes in the flood regime in the mountainous regions of Slovakia, a simple physically-based concept for climate change-induced changes in extreme 5-day precipitation totals is proposed in the paper. It utilizes regionally downscaled scenarios of the long-term monthly means of the air temperature, specific air humidity and precipitation projected for Central Slovakia by two regional (RCM) and two global circulation models (GCM). A simplified physically-based model for the calculation of short-term precipitation totals over the course of changing air temperatures, which is used to drive a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was proposed. In the paper a case study of this approach in the upper Hron river basin in Central Slovakia is presented. From the 1981-2010 period, 20 events of the basin's most extreme average of 5-day precipitation totals were selected. Only events with continual precipitation during 5 days were considered. These 5-day precipitation totals were modified according to the RCM and GCM-based scenarios for the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2075. For modelling runoff under changed 5-day precipitation totals, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model developed at the Slovak University of Technology was used. Changes in extreme mean daily discharges due to climate change were compared with the original flood events and discussed.

  1. The Individual Consistency of Acquiescence and Extreme Response Style in Self-Report Questionnaires

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weijters, Bert; Geuens, Maggie; Schillewaert, Niels

    2010-01-01

    The severity of bias in respondents' self-reports due to acquiescence response style (ARS) and extreme response style (ERS) depends strongly on how consistent these response styles are over the course of a questionnaire. In the literature, different alternative hypotheses on response style (in)consistency circulate. Therefore, nine alternative…

  2. Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This is a presentation titled Estimating the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Farmland Values: The Importance of Extreme Temperatures that was given for the National Center for Environmental Economics

  3. Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cifter, Atilla

    2011-06-01

    This paper introduces wavelet-based extreme value theory (EVT) for univariate value-at-risk estimation. Wavelets and EVT are combined for volatility forecasting to estimate a hybrid model. In the first stage, wavelets are used as a threshold in generalized Pareto distribution, and in the second stage, EVT is applied with a wavelet-based threshold. This new model is applied to two major emerging stock markets: the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and the Budapest Stock Exchange (BUX). The relative performance of wavelet-based EVT is benchmarked against the Riskmetrics-EWMA, ARMA-GARCH, generalized Pareto distribution, and conditional generalized Pareto distribution models. The empirical results show that the wavelet-based extreme value theory increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to number of violations and tail-loss tests. The superior forecasting performance of the wavelet-based EVT model is also consistent with Basel II requirements, and this new model can be used by financial institutions as well.

  4. Replica and extreme-value analysis of the Jarzynski free-energy estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palassini, Matteo; Ritort, Felix

    2008-03-01

    We analyze the Jarzynski estimator of free-energy differences from nonequilibrium work measurements. By a simple mapping onto Derrida's Random Energy Model, we obtain a scaling limit for the expectation of the bias of the estimator. We then derive analytical approximations in three different regimes of the scaling parameter x = log(N)/W, where N is the number of measurements and W the mean dissipated work. Our approach is valid for a generic distribution of the dissipated work, and is based on a replica symmetry breaking scheme for x >> 1, the asymptotic theory of extreme value statistics for x << 1, and a direct approach for x near one. The combination of the three analytic approximations describes well Monte Carlo data for the expectation value of the estimator, for a wide range of values of N, from N=1 to large N, and for different work distributions. Based on these results, we introduce improved free-energy estimators and discuss the application to the analysis of experimental data.

  5. Application of extreme learning machine for estimation of wind speed distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Mohammadi, Kasra; Tong, Chong Wen; Petković, Dalibor; Porcu, Emilio; Mostafaeipour, Ali; Ch, Sudheer; Sedaghat, Ahmad

    2016-03-01

    The knowledge of the probabilistic wind speed distribution is of particular significance in reliable evaluation of the wind energy potential and effective adoption of site specific wind turbines. Among all proposed probability density functions, the two-parameter Weibull function has been extensively endorsed and utilized to model wind speeds and express wind speed distribution in various locations. In this research work, extreme learning machine (ELM) is employed to compute the shape ( k) and scale ( c) factors of Weibull distribution function. The developed ELM model is trained and tested based upon two widely successful methods used to estimate k and c parameters. The efficiency and accuracy of ELM is compared against support vector machine, artificial neural network and genetic programming for estimating the same Weibull parameters. The survey results reveal that applying ELM approach is eventuated in attaining further precision for estimation of both Weibull parameters compared to other methods evaluated. Mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute bias error and root mean square error for k are 8.4600 %, 0.1783 and 0.2371, while for c are 0.2143 %, 0.0118 and 0.0192 m/s, respectively. In conclusion, it is conclusively found that application of ELM is particularly promising as an alternative method to estimate Weibull k and c factors.

  6. Sensitivity of extreme flood quantile estimation to rainfall-runoff modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mathevet, T.; Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Garçon, R.

    2012-04-01

    EDF (Électricité de France) design floods of dam spillways are now computed using a probabilistic method named SCHADEX (Climatic-hydrological simulation of extreme foods (Paquet et al., 2006, Garavaglia et al., 2009, 2010). This method aims at estimating extreme flood quantiles by the combination of a weather pattern based rainfall probabilistic model and a conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Extreme floods quantiles are estimated through a runoff generation process that combines a stochastic generation of rainfall events and a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation. The aim of this paper is to investigate the sensitivity of extreme flood quantile estimation to the rainfall-runoff model (structure, parameters) used in the simulation framework. To explore this topic we have used two rainfall-runoff models (i.e. MORDOR model (Garçon et al., 1996) and GR4J model (Andreassian et al., 2006)) with four different objective functions (based on Nash-Sutcliffe and Kling-Gupta efficiencies) and a classical split-sample scheme. This testing strategy has been applied to calibrate models on a set of 30 French watersheds at different time-steps (mainly daily and 4 to 12 hours). When calibrated, models were used within the SCHADEX method and flood quantiles were evaluated at different return levels in interpolation and extrapolation (10, 100, 1000 years return-period). The main result of this comparative study is that extreme flood quantile estimations are more sensitive to (i) the objective function used and (ii) the time series length and period used for model calibration then (iii) the rainfall-runoff structure. Within this comparative study, the mean variability on a 1000 years return-period is up to 20%. Another interesting result is that, for a same objective function and time series period, the influence of the rainfall-runoff model is relatively moderated in extrapolation domain because the two rainfall-runoff models converged towards their asymptotic behaviours, but

  7. Regularized joint inverse estimation of extreme rainfall amounts in ungauged coastal basins of El Salvador

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedel, M.J.

    2008-01-01

    A regularized joint inverse procedure is presented and used to estimate the magnitude of extreme rainfall events in ungauged coastal river basins of El Salvador: Paz, Jiboa, Grande de San Miguel, and Goascoran. Since streamflow measurements reflect temporal and spatial rainfall information, peak-flow discharge is hypothesized to represent a similarity measure suitable for regionalization. To test this hypothesis, peak-flow discharge values determined from streamflow recurrence information (10-year, 25-year, and 100-year) collected outside the study basins are used to develop regional (country-wide) regression equations. Peak-flow discharge derived from these equations together with preferred spatial parameter relations as soft prior information are used to constrain the simultaneous calibration of 20 tributary basin models. The nonlinear range of uncertainty in estimated parameter values (1 curve number and 3 recurrent rainfall amounts for each model) is determined using an inverse calibration-constrained Monte Carlo approach. Cumulative probability distributions for rainfall amounts indicate differences among basins for a given return period and an increase in magnitude and range among basins with increasing return interval. Comparison of the estimated median rainfall amounts for all return periods were reasonable but larger (3.2-26%) than rainfall estimates computed using the frequency-duration (traditional) approach and individual rain gauge data. The observed 25-year recurrence rainfall amount at La Hachadura in the Paz River basin during Hurricane Mitch (1998) is similar in value to, but outside and slightly less than, the estimated rainfall confidence limits. The similarity in joint inverse and traditionally computed rainfall events, however, suggests that the rainfall observation may likely be due to under-catch and not model bias. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007.

  8. Use of heat to estimate streambed fluxes during extreme hydrologic events

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barlow, J.R.B.; Coupe, R.H.

    2009-01-01

    Using heat as a tracer, quantitative estimates of streambed fluxes and the critical stage for flow reversal were calculated for high-flow events that occurred on the Bogue Phalia (a tributary of the Mississippi River) following the 2005 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. In June 2005, piezometers were installed in the Bogue Phalia upstream from the stream gage near Leland, Mississippi, to monitor temperature. Even with the hurricanes, precipitation in the Bogue Phalia Basin for the months of June to October 2005 was below normal, and consequently, streamflow was below the long-term average. Temperature profiles from the piezometers indicate that the Bogue Phalia was a gaining stream during most of this time, but relatively static streambed temperatures suggested long-term data was warranted for heat-based estimates of flux. However, the hurricanes caused a pair of sharp rises in stream stage over short periods of time, increasing the potential for rapid heat-based modeling and for identification of the critical stage for flow reversal into the streambed. Heat-based modeling fits of simulated-to-measured sediment temperatures show that once a critical stage was surpassed, flow direction reversed into the streambed. Results of this study demonstrate the ability to constrain estimates of streambed water flux and the critical stage of flow reversal, with little available groundwater head data, by using heat as a tracer during extreme stage events. copyright. Published in 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  9. Using Annual Data to Estimate the Public Health Impact of Extreme Temperatures.

    PubMed

    Goggins, William B; Yang, Chunyuh; Hokama, Tomiko; Law, Lewis S K; Chan, Emily Y Y

    2015-07-01

    Short-term associations between both hot and cold ambient temperatures and higher mortality have been found worldwide. Few studies have examined these associations on longer time scales. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated for 1976-2012 for Hong Kong SAR, People's Republic of China, defining "annual" time periods in 2 ways: from May through April of the following year and from November through October. Annual frequency and severity of extreme temperatures were summarized by using a degree-days approach with extreme heat expressed as annual degree-days >29.3°C and cold as annual degree-days <27.5°C. For example, a day with a mean temperature of 25.0°C contributes 2.5 cold degree-days to the annual total. Generalized additive models were used to estimate the association between annual hot and cold degree-days and the ASMR, with adjustment for long-term trends. Increases of 10 hot or 200 cold degree-days in an annual period, the approximate interquartile ranges for these variables, were significantly (all P's ≤ 0.011) associated with 1.9% or 3.1% increases, respectively, in the annual ASMR for the May-April analyses and with 2.2% or 2.8% increases, respectively, in the November-October analyses. Associations were stronger for noncancer and elderly mortality. Mortality increases associated with extreme temperature are not simply due to short-term forward displacement of deaths that would have occurred anyway within a few weeks.

  10. Extreme thermal noxious stimuli induce pain responses in zebrafish larvae.

    PubMed

    Malafoglia, Valentina; Colasanti, Marco; Raffaeli, William; Balciunas, Darius; Giordano, Antonio; Bellipanni, Gianfranco

    2014-03-01

    Exposing tissues to extreme high or low temperature leads to burns. Burned animals sustain several types of damage, from the disruption of the tissue to degeneration of axons projecting through muscle and skin. Such damage causes pain due to both inflammation and axonal degeneration (neuropathic-like pain). Thus, the approach to cure and alleviate the symptoms of burns must be twofold: rebuilding the tissue that has been destroyed and alleviating the pain derived from the burns. While tissue regeneration techniques have been developed, less is known on the treatment of the induced pain. Thus, appropriate animal models are necessary for the development of the best treatment for pain induced in burned tissues. We have developed a methodology in the zebrafish aimed to produce a new animal model for the study of pain induced by burns. Here, we show that two events linked to the onset of burn-induced inflammation and neuropathic-like pain in mammals, degeneration of axons innervating the affected tissues and over-expression of specific genes in sensory tissues, are conserved from zebrafish to mammals.

  11. Estimates for production of radioisotopes of medical interest at Extreme Light Infrastructure - Nuclear Physics facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Wen; Bobeica, Mariana; Gheorghe, Ioana; Filipescu, Dan M.; Niculae, Dana; Balabanski, Dimiter L.

    2016-01-01

    We report Monte Carlo simulations of the production of radioisotopes of medical interest through photoneutron reactions using the high-brilliance γ-beam of the Extreme Light Infrastructure - Nuclear Physics (ELI-NP) facility. The specific activity for three benchmark radioisotopes, 99Mo/99Tc, 225Ra/225Ac and 186Re, was obtained as a function of target geometry, irradiation time and γ-beam energy. Optimized conditions for the generation of these radioisotopes of medical interest with the ELI-NP γ-beams were discussed. We estimated that a saturation specific activity of the order of 1-2 mCi/g can be achieved for thin targets with about one gram of mass considering a γ-beam flux of 10^{11} photons/s. Based on these results, we suggest that the ELI-NP facility can provide a unique possibility for the production of radioisotopes in sufficient quantities for nuclear medicine research.

  12. A Green Planet versus a Desert World: Estimating the Effect of Vegetation Extremes on the Atmosphere.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraedrich, Klaus; Kleidon, Axel; Lunkeit, Frank

    1999-10-01

    The effect of vegetation extremes on the general circulation is estimated by two atmospheric GCM simulations using global desert and forest boundary conditions over land. The difference between the climates of a `green planet' and a `desert world' is dominated by the changes of the hydrological cycle, which is intensified substantially. Enhanced evapotranspiration over land reduces the near-surface temperatures; enhanced precipitation leads to a warmer mid- and upper troposphere extending from the subtropics (induced by ITCZ, monsoon, and Hadley cell dynamics) to the midlatitudes (over the cyclogenesis area of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks). These regional changes of the surface water and energy balances, and of the atmospheric circulation, have potential impact on the ocean and the atmospheric greenhouse.

  13. Estimating return periods of extreme values from relatively short time series of winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonasson, Kristjan; Agustsson, Halfdan; Rognvaldsson, Olafur; Arfeuille, Gilles

    2013-04-01

    An important factor for determining the prospect of individual wind farm sites is the frequency of extreme winds at hub height. Here, extreme winds are defined as the value of the highest 10 minutes averaged wind speed with a 50 year return period, i.e. annual exceeding probability of 2% (Rodrigo, 2010). A frequently applied method to estimate winds in the lowest few hundred meters above ground is to extrapolate observed 10-meter winds logarithmically to higher altitudes. Recent study by Drechsel et al. (2012) showed however that this methodology is not as accurate as interpolating simulated results from the global ECMWF numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to the desired height. Observations of persistent low level jets near Colima in SW-Mexico also show that the logarithmic approach can give highly inaccurate results for some regions (Arfeuille et al., 2012). To address these shortcomings of limited, and/or poorly representative, observations and extrapolations of winds one can use NWP models to dynamically scale down relatively coarse resolution atmospheric analysis. In the case of limited computing resources one has typically to make a compromise between spatial resolution and the duration of the simulated period, both of which can limit the quality of the wind farm siting. A common method to estimate maximum winds is to fit an extreme value distribution (e.g. Gumbel, gev or Pareto) to the maximum values of each year of available data, or the tail of these values. If data are only available for a short period, e.g. 10 or 15 years, then this will give a rather inaccurate estimate. It is possible to deal with this problem by utilizing monthly or weekly maxima, but this introduces new problems: seasonal variation, autocorrelation of neighboring values, and increased discrepancy between data and fitted distribution. We introduce a new method to estimate return periods of extreme values of winds at hub height from relatively short time series of winds, simulated

  14. A general model for estimating lower extremity inertial properties of individuals with transtibial amputation.

    PubMed

    Ferris, Abbie E; Smith, Jeremy D; Heise, Gary D; Hinrichs, Richard N; Martin, Philip E

    2017-03-21

    Lower extremity joint moment magnitudes during swing are dependent on the inertial properties of the prosthesis and residual limb of individuals with transtibial amputation (TTA). Often, intact limb inertial properties (INTACT) are used for prosthetic limb values in an inverse dynamics model even though these values overestimate the amputated limb's inertial properties. The purpose of this study was to use subject-specific (SPECIFIC) measures of prosthesis inertial properties to generate a general model (GENERAL) for estimating TTA prosthesis inertial properties. Subject-specific mass, center of mass, and moment of inertia were determined for the shank and foot segments of the prosthesis (n=11) using an oscillation technique and reaction board. The GENERAL model was derived from the means of the SPECIFIC model. Mass and segment lengths are required GENERAL model inputs. Comparisons of segment inertial properties and joint moments during walking were made using three inertial models (unique sample; n=9): (1) SPECIFIC, (2) GENERAL, and (3) INTACT. Prosthetic shank inertial properties were significantly smaller with the SPECIFIC and GENERAL model than the INTACT model, but the SPECIFIC and GENERAL model did not statistically differ. Peak knee and hip joint moments during swing were significantly smaller for the SPECIFIC and GENERAL model compared with the INTACT model and were not significantly different between SPECIFIC and GENERAL models. When subject-specific measures are unavailable, using the GENERAL model produces a better estimate of prosthetic side inertial properties resulting in more accurate joint moment measurements for individuals with TTA than the INTACT model.

  15. Extremism reduces conflict arousal and increases values affirmation in response to meaning violations.

    PubMed

    Sleegers, Willem W A; Proulx, Travis; van Beest, Ilja

    2015-05-01

    In the social psychological threat-compensation literature, there is an apparent contradiction whereby relatively extreme beliefs both decrease markers of physiological arousal following meaning violations, and increase the values affirmation behaviors understood as a palliative responses to this arousal. We hypothesize that this is due to the differential impact of measuring extremism on behavioral inhibition and approach systems following meaning violations, whereby extremism both reduces markers of conflict arousal (BIS) and increases values affirmation (BAS) unrelated to this initial arousal. Using pupil dilation as a proxy for immediate conflict arousal, we found that the same meaning violation (anomalous playing cards) evoked greater pupil dilation, and that this pupillary reaction was diminished in participants who earlier reported extreme beliefs. We also found that reporting extreme beliefs was associated with greater affirmation of an unrelated meaning framework, where this affirmation was unrelated to physiological markers of conflict arousal.

  16. Investigation of Atmospheric Modelling Framework for Better Reconstruction on Historical Extreme Precipitation Event in PMP Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, X.; Hossain, F.; Leung, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    During May 1-2, 2010, a record-breaking storm hit Nashville, and caused huge humanity and societal loss. It raises the importance of forecasting/reconstructing these types of extreme weather systems once again, in the meanwhile providing an excellent case for such atmospheric modelling studies. However, earlier studies suggest that successful reconstruction of this event depends on and is sensitive to a number of model options, making it difficult to establish a better model framework with more confidence. In this study we employed the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to investigate how this extreme precipitation event is sensitive to the model configuration, and identified options that would produce better results. We tested several combinations of modelling grid sizes together with initial/boundary conditions (IC/BC). At different grid sizes, we conducted a set of tests on various combinations of microphysics (Morrison, new Thompson and WSM5) and cumulus process (Kain-Fristch, Grell-Devenyi and Grell-Freitas) parameterization schemes. The model results were intensively evaluated under bias analysis as well as other metrics (probability of detection, bias, false alerts, HSS, ETS). The evaluation suggests that in general, simulation results benefit from finer model grids (5km). At 5km level, NCEP2 or NAM IC/BCs are more representative for the 2010 Nashville storm. There are no universally good parameterization schemes, but the WSM5 microphysics scheme, Kain-Fristch and Grell-Freitas cumulus schemes are recommended over other tested schemes. These better schemes would help to make better estimation of PMP in the region.

  17. Effects of appraisal and coping on the neuroendocrine response to extreme stress.

    PubMed

    Olff, Miranda; Langeland, Willie; Gersons, Berthold P R

    2005-05-01

    Although many people are exposed to extreme stress, only some of them develop psychobiological disturbances that can lead to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or other posttrauma psychopathology. This paper examines the effects of different types of appraisal and coping to find clues to how individuals differ in their neuroendocrine responses to extreme stress. It proposes a conceptual model for components of the adult response to stressors. Threat appraisal and defensive coping may play crucial roles in determining the neuroendocrine response to trauma with potential mental health consequences, particularly PTSD.

  18. Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to precipitation extremes: a synthesis of grassland precipitation manipulation experiments.

    PubMed

    Wilcox, Kevin R; Shi, Zheng; Gherardi, Laureano A; Lemoine, Nathan P; Koerner, Sally E; Hoover, David L; Bork, Edward; Byrne, Kerry M; Cahill, James; Collins, Scott L; Evans, Sarah; Katarina Gilgen, Anna; Holub, Petr; Jiang, Lifen; Knapp, Alan K; LeCain, Daniel; Liang, Junyi; Garcia-Palacios, Pablo; Peñuelas, Josep; Pockman, William T; Smith, Melinda D; Sun, Shanghua; White, Shannon R; Yahdjian, Laura; Zhu, Kai; Luo, Yiqi

    2017-04-02

    Climatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased inter-annual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitation changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. We used meta-analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses versus the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change and there was considerable variation among experiments. This highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change

  19. Extreme rainfall events can alter inter-annual biomass responses to water and N enrichment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kong, D. L.; Lü, X. T.; Jiang, L. L.; Wu, H. F.; Miao, Y.; Kardol, P.

    2013-12-01

    Water availability has profound effects on plant growth and productivity in temperate and semiarid grasslands. However, it remains unclear how variation of inter-annual precipitation by extreme rainfall events will alter the aboveground and belowground responses of plants, and how these responses may be contingent on N availability. In this study, we examined the interactive effects of inter-annual precipitation variation and N addition on aboveground and live fine root biomass of a semiarid grassland in northern China for two consecutive years (2007 and 2008). Inter-annual variation in precipitation resulting mainly from the occurrence of extreme rainfall events in 2008 significantly affected above- and belowground plant biomass responses to water addition. In addition, variation of inter-annual precipitation by this extreme rainfall event suppressed plant responses to nitrogen addition and reduced the interaction effects between water and nitrogen addition. These effects of inter-annual precipitation fluctuation could be attributed to the negative influence of the extreme rainfall event on soil N and water availability, ultimately reducing plant rainfall use efficiency and nitrogen use efficiency. In conclusion, our results suggest ecosystem responses to water and N enrichment could be altered by inter-annual variation of precipitation regime caused by the naturally occurring extreme rainfall events.

  20. Changing precipitation extremes in a warming climate: A basis for design flood estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-04-01

    The potential for increasing intensity of future rainfall events has significant implications for flooding and the design of infrastructure. However the questions of how precipitation will change in the future, how important these changes are to flooding, and how engineers incorporate these changes into hydrologic design remain as open questions. In the absence of reliable point based estimates of how precipitation will change, many studies investigate the historical relationship between rainfall intensity and temperature as a proxy for what may happen in a warmer climate. Much of the research to date has focussed on changing precipitation intensity, however, temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation are just as important. Here we link higher temperatures to changes in temporal and spatial patterns of extreme precipitation events. We show, using observed high quality precipitation records from Australia covering all major climatic zones, that storms are intensifying in both time and space resulting in a greater potential for flooding especially in urban locales around the world. Given that precipitation and antecedent conditions are changing, and, the impacts to flooding are significant, methods of incorporating these changes in catchment modelling are required. Continuous simulation offers a natural flexibility to incorporate the many correlated changes in precipitation that may occur in a future climate. An argument for such a framework using existing continuous simulation alternatives is articulated in concluding this presentation.

  1. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huttenlau, M.; Stötter, J.; Stiefelmeyer, H.

    2010-12-01

    Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings, dwellings and inventory

  2. Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Parameter Estimation in Item Response Theory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lord, Frederic M.

    There are currently three main approaches to parameter estimation in item response theory (IRT): (1) joint maximum likelihood, exemplified by LOGIST, yielding maximum likelihood estimates; (2) marginal maximum likelihood, exemplified by BILOG, yielding maximum likelihood estimates of item parameters (ability parameters can be estimated…

  3. Nonparametric Item Response Curve Estimation with Correction for Measurement Error

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guo, Hongwen; Sinharay, Sandip

    2011-01-01

    Nonparametric or kernel regression estimation of item response curves (IRCs) is often used in item analysis in testing programs. These estimates are biased when the observed scores are used as the regressor because the observed scores are contaminated by measurement error. Accuracy of this estimation is a concern theoretically and operationally.…

  4. Consistency of Response Patterns in Different Estimation Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wong, Terry Tin-Yau; Ho, Connie Suk-Han; Tang, Joey

    2016-01-01

    The current study aimed at addressing two issues concerning children's estimation performance: (1) to investigate whether the log-to-linear framework or the proportional judgment framework provided a better explanation of children's estimation patterns, and (2) to examine the consistency of response patterns in different estimation tasks. A sample…

  5. Flat field response of the microchannel plate detectors used on the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vallerga, J. V.; Gibson, J. L.; Siegmund, O. H. W.; Vedder, P. W.

    1989-01-01

    The results of the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flat field calibrations of two of the flight detectors to be flown on the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer Satellite (EUVE) are presented. Images of about 40 million detected events binned 512 by 512 are sufficient to show microchannel plate fixed pattern noise such as hexagonal microchannel multifiber bundle interfaces, 'dead' spots, edge distortion, and differential nonlinearity. Differences due to photocathode material and dependencies on EUV wavelength are also described. Over large spatial scales, the detector response is flat to better than 10 percent of the mean response, but, at spatial scales less than 1 mm, the variations from the mean can be as large as 20 percent.

  6. Comparison of different statistical methods for estimation of extreme sea levels with wave set-up contribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kergadallan, Xavier; Bernardara, Pietro; Benoit, Michel; Andreewsky, Marc; Weiss, Jérôme

    2013-04-01

    Estimating the probability of occurrence of extreme sea levels is a central issue for the protection of the coast. Return periods of sea level with wave set-up contribution are estimated here in one site : Cherbourg in France in the English Channel. The methodology follows two steps : the first one is computation of joint probability of simultaneous wave height and still sea level, the second one is interpretation of that joint probabilities to assess a sea level for a given return period. Two different approaches were evaluated to compute joint probability of simultaneous wave height and still sea level : the first one is multivariate extreme values distributions of logistic type in which all components of the variables become large simultaneously, the second one is conditional approach for multivariate extreme values in which only one component of the variables have to be large. Two different methods were applied to estimate sea level with wave set-up contribution for a given return period : Monte-Carlo simulation in which estimation is more accurate but needs higher calculation time and classical ocean engineering design contours of type inverse-FORM in which the method is simpler and allows more complex estimation of wave setup part (wave propagation to the coast for example). We compare results from the two different approaches with the two different methods. To be able to use both Monte-Carlo simulation and design contours methods, wave setup is estimated with an simple empirical formula. We show advantages of the conditional approach compared to the multivariate extreme values approach when extreme sea-level occurs when either surge or wave height is large. We discuss the validity of the ocean engineering design contours method which is an alternative when computation of sea levels is too complex to use Monte-Carlo simulation method.

  7. Estimating Groundwater Flow Parameters Using Response Surface Methodology

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-04-01

    Best Available Copy AD-A280 630 DTI ELECT’ JUN2 4 ESTIMATING GROUNDWATER FLOW PARAMETERS USING RESPONSE SURFACE METHODOLOGY THESIS Leo C. Adams...GROUNDWATER FLOW PARAMETERS USING RESPONSE SURFACE METHODOLOGY THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Engineering of the Air Force Institute...Estimating Groundwater Flow Parameters Using Response Surface Methodology Committee Name/Department Signature dvisor. I Col Paul F. Auclair, Ph.D. j . j

  8. Emergency Response to and Preparedness for Extreme Weather Events and Environmental Changes in China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Li; Liao, Yongfeng; Yang, Linsheng; Li, Hairong; Ye, Bixiong; Wang, Wuyi

    2016-03-01

    China has achieved impressive rapid economic growth over the past 30 years but accompanied by significant extreme weather events and environmental changes caused by global change and overfast urbanization. Using the absolute hazards index (AHI), we assessed the spatial distribution patterns and related health effects of 4 major extreme natural disasters, including drought, floods (landslides, mudslides), hails, and typhoons from 2000 to 2011 at the provincial level in China. The results showed that (1) central and south China were the most affected by the 4 natural disasters, and north China suffered less; (2) the provinces with higher AHI suffered most from total death, missing people, collapse, and emergently relocated population; (3) the present health emergency response system to disasters in China mainly lacks a multidisciplinary approach. In the concluding section of this article, suggestions on preparedness and rapid response to extreme health events from environmental changes are proposed.

  9. Modeling short duration extreme precipitation patterns using copula and generalized maximum pseudo-likelihood estimation with censoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bargaoui, Zoubeida Kebaili; Bardossy, Andràs

    2015-10-01

    The paper aims to develop researches on the spatial variability of heavy rainfall events estimation using spatial copula analysis. To demonstrate the methodology, short time resolution rainfall time series from Stuttgart region are analyzed. They are constituted by rainfall observations on continuous 30 min time scale recorded over a network composed by 17 raingages for the period July 1989-July 2004. The analysis is performed aggregating the observations from 30 min up to 24 h. Two parametric bivariate extreme copula models, the Husler-Reiss model and the Gumbel model are investigated. Both involve a single parameter to be estimated. Thus, model fitting is operated for every pair of stations for a giving time resolution. A rainfall threshold value representing a fixed rainfall quantile is adopted for model inference. Generalized maximum pseudo-likelihood estimation is adopted with censoring by analogy with methods of univariate estimation combining historical and paleoflood information with systematic data. Only pairs of observations greater than the threshold are assumed as systematic data. Using the estimated copula parameter, a synthetic copula field is randomly generated and helps evaluating model adequacy which is achieved using Kolmogorov Smirnov distance test. In order to assess dependence or independence in the upper tail, the extremal coefficient which characterises the tail of the joint bivariate distribution is adopted. Hence, the extremal coefficient is reported as a function of the interdistance between stations. If it is less than 1.7, stations are interpreted as dependent in the extremes. The analysis of the fitted extremal coefficients with respect to stations inter distance highlights two regimes with different dependence structures: a short spatial extent regime linked to short duration intervals (from 30 min to 6 h) with an extent of about 8 km and a large spatial extent regime related to longer rainfall intervals (from 12 h to 24 h) with an

  10. Profile reconstruction in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) scatterometry: modeling and uncertainty estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gross, H.; Rathsfeld, A.; Scholze, F.; Bär, M.

    2009-10-01

    Scatterometry as a non-imaging indirect optical method in wafer metrology is also relevant to lithography masks designed for extreme ultraviolet lithography, where light with wavelengths in the range of 13 nm is applied. The solution of the inverse problem, i.e. the determination of periodic surface structures regarding critical dimensions (CD) and other profile properties from light diffraction patterns, is incomplete without knowledge of the uncertainties associated with the reconstructed parameters. The numerical simulation of the diffraction process for periodic 2D structures can be realized by the finite element solution of the two-dimensional Helmholtz equation. The inverse problem can be formulated as a nonlinear operator equation in Euclidean space. The operator maps the sought mask parameters to the efficiencies of diffracted plane wave modes. We employ a Gauß-Newton type iterative method to solve this operator equation and end up minimizing the deviation of the measured efficiency or phase shift values from the calculated ones. We apply our reconstruction algorithm for the measurement of a typical EUV mask composed of TaN absorber lines of about 80 nm height, a period in the range of 420 nm-840 nm, and with an underlying MoSi-multilayer stack of 300 nm thickness. Clearly, the uncertainties of the reconstructed geometric parameters essentially depend on the uncertainties of the input data and can be estimated by various methods. We apply a Monte Carlo procedure and an approximative covariance method to evaluate the reconstruction algorithm. Finally, we analyze the influence of uncertainties in the widths of the multilayer stack by the Monte Carlo method.

  11. AN OVERVIEW OF TOOL FOR RESPONSE ACTION COST ESTIMATING (TRACE)

    SciTech Connect

    FERRIES SR; KLINK KL; OSTAPKOWICZ B

    2012-01-30

    Tools and techniques that provide improved performance and reduced costs are important to government programs, particularly in current times. An opportunity for improvement was identified for preparation of cost estimates used to support the evaluation of response action alternatives. As a result, CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company has developed Tool for Response Action Cost Estimating (TRACE). TRACE is a multi-page Microsoft Excel{reg_sign} workbook developed to introduce efficiencies into the timely and consistent production of cost estimates for response action alternatives. This tool combines costs derived from extensive site-specific runs of commercially available remediation cost models with site-specific and estimator-researched and derived costs, providing the best estimating sources available. TRACE also provides for common quantity and key parameter links across multiple alternatives, maximizing ease of updating estimates and performing sensitivity analyses, and ensuring consistency.

  12. Dose-response curve estimation: a semiparametric mixture approach.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Ying; Yin, Guosheng

    2011-12-01

    In the estimation of a dose-response curve, parametric models are straightforward and efficient but subject to model misspecifications; nonparametric methods are robust but less efficient. As a compromise, we propose a semiparametric approach that combines the advantages of parametric and nonparametric curve estimates. In a mixture form, our estimator takes a weighted average of the parametric and nonparametric curve estimates, in which a higher weight is assigned to the estimate with a better model fit. When the parametric model assumption holds, the semiparametric curve estimate converges to the parametric estimate and thus achieves high efficiency; when the parametric model is misspecified, the semiparametric estimate converges to the nonparametric estimate and remains consistent. We also consider an adaptive weighting scheme to allow the weight to vary according to the local fit of the models. We conduct extensive simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed methods and illustrate them with two real examples.

  13. Cardiovascular Responses to Psychosocial Stress Reflect Motivation State in Adults Born at Extremely Low Birth Weight

    PubMed Central

    Pyhälä, Riikka; Hovi, Petteri; Räikkönen, Katri; Van Lieshout, Ryan J.; Boyle, Michael H.; Saigal, Saroj; Morrison, Katherine M.; Kajantie, Eero; Schmidt, Louis A.

    2015-01-01

    Background. Adults born extremely preterm appear to have more difficulty managing the stresses of early adulthood than their term-born peers. Objective. To examine the effects of being born at extremely low birth weight (ELBW; birth weight < 1000 g) versus at full term on cardiovascular responses to stress. Method. Cardiovascular responses were elicited during administration of a widely used laboratory stressor, the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST). Results. Term-born adults exhibited a larger decrease in total peripheral resistance and larger increase in cardiac output for TSST performance, reflecting greater resilience, than did ELBW adults. Furthermore, in ELBW participants but not controls, cardiovascular responses were correlated with anxiety, suggesting that their responses reflected feelings of stress. Conclusions. Skills-training and practice with relevant stressors may be necessary to increase the personal resources of ELBW participants for managing stress as they transition to adulthood. PMID:27335948

  14. Performance evaluation of TMPA version 7 estimates for precipitation and its extremes in Circum-Bohai-Sea region, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Dejuan; Zhang, Hua; Li, Ruize

    2016-09-01

    Precipitation and its extremes are of significance for drought and flood warning and monitoring. This study evaluates the capability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 V7 to detect rainfall events, especially extreme precipitation events, using gauge observations for the period 1998-2012 over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, a mid-altitude and semi-humid monsoon area. The results show that 3B42 V7 performs better at monthly and annual scales than at a daily scale. Spatially or seasonally, the rainfall pattern is more effectively captured by 3B42 V7 for the wet region or season than for the dry region or season. 3B42 V7 displays a positive relative bias in most areas, and the largest is situated in high latitude region, while negative relative bias is found at coastal regions. 3B42 V7 tends to overestimate at low and middle rainfall intensity (RI) ranges (RI <50 mm/day) but underestimate at high RI range (RI ≥50 mm/day). Overall, the total rainfall amount (PRETOT) and extreme precipitation amount (EPRETOT, above 95th percentile of daily rainfall) are slightly overestimated by 3B42 V7, while EPRETOT exhibits a lower correlation with observations than PRETOT does. The relative root mean square error (RMSE) are higher than 50 % relative to rain gauges for eight extreme precipitation indices except the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), demonstrating that extreme precipitation estimates of 3B42 V7 are generally unreliable. The improvement of 3B42 V7 in capturing extreme precipitation events is anticipated through extensive efforts for its wide range of climate and hydrological applications. Overall, this study provides an evaluation of the quality of TMPA 3B42 V7 in estimating precipitation and its extremes in a mid-altitude and semi-humid monsoon region.

  15. Photosynthesis in extreme environments: responses to different light regimes in the Antarctic alga Koliella antarctica.

    PubMed

    La Rocca, Nicoletta; Sciuto, Katia; Meneghesso, Andrea; Moro, Isabella; Rascio, Nicoletta; Morosinotto, Tomas

    2015-04-01

    Antarctic algae play a fundamental role in polar ecosystem thanks to their ability to grow in an extreme environment characterized by low temperatures and variable illumination. Here, for prolonged periods, irradiation is extremely low and algae must be able to harvest light as efficiently as possible. On the other side, at low temperatures even dim irradiances can saturate photosynthesis and drive to the formation of reactive oxygen species. Colonization of this extreme environment necessarily required the optimization of photosynthesis regulation mechanisms by algal organisms. In order to investigate these adaptations we analyzed the time course of physiological and morphological responses to different irradiances in Koliella antarctica, a green microalga isolated from Ross Sea (Antarctica). Koliella antarctica not only modulates cell morphology and composition of its photosynthetic apparatus on a long-term acclimation, but also shows the ability of a very fast response to light fluctuations. Koliella antarctica controls the activity of two xanthophyll cycles. The first, involving lutein epoxide and lutein, may be important for the growth under very low irradiances. The second, involving conversion of violaxanthin to antheraxanthin and zeaxanthin, is relevant to induce a fast and particularly strong non-photochemical quenching, when the alga is exposed to higher light intensities. Globally K. antarctica thus shows the ability to activate a palette of responses of the photosynthetic apparatus optimized for survival in its natural extreme environment.

  16. Plant phenological responses to extreme events - A long term perspective from the Chihuahuan Desert

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Browning, D. M.; Peters, D. P.; Anderson, J.; Yao, J.

    2011-12-01

    Arid and semi-arid regions of the southwestern USA are especially sensitive to changes in temperature as well as drought frequency and intensity. Timing of periodic life cycle events (i.e., phenology) is an integrated and salient indicator of plant responses to climate change. We examine an 18-year dataset of monthly observations of plant phenology for two species of perennial grasses and a deciduous shrub (honey mesquite) distributed across three upland grassland sites and three mesquite-dominated sites on the Jornada Basin USDA-LTER in southern New Mexico, USA. Precipitation is highly variable between years and across space. Long-term phenology data collection spanned a multi-year drought (1994-2003) followed by a sequence of years with average to very high rainfall (2004 - 2008). Our objective was to compare and contrast responses to extreme dry and wet cycles in the timing and duration of first leaf and fruit production for two grasses (Bouteloua eriopoda [black grama], Sporobolus flexuosus [mesa dropseed]) with one co-existing shrub that has displaced grasses in this system (Prosopis glandulosa [honey mesquite]). Monthly field observations yield estimates of phenological status and abundance for 18 growing seasons from 1993 to 2010. All three species most commonly initiated new growth prior to onset of the monsoon rains (March or April). Timing of first growth for mesquite was less variable (standard deviation = 0.47) than for black grama (SD = 1.42) and mesa dropseed (SD = 1.22) grasses. Initial growth for grasses was delayed to September in 2006 following twelve months of deficit values for PDSI. The appearance of first fruit for grasses occurred consistently in August or September, although the number of plants producing fruit was highly variable from year to year. The largest numbers of fruit-bearing grasses were observed in late fall 2008 in response to heavy monsoon rains in 2006 and 2008. Mesquite demonstrated remarkable synchrony in the production of

  17. Prediction of Ship Response Statistics in Extreme Seas Using Model Tests Data and Numerical Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Bingjie; Bitner-Gregersen, Elzbieta Maria; Sun, Hui; Block Helmers, Jens

    2013-04-01

    Earlier investigations have indicated that proper prediction of nonlinear loads and responses due to nonlinear waves is important for ship safety in extreme seas. However, the nonlinear loads and responses in extreme seas have not been sufficiently investigated yet, particularly when rogue waves are considered. A question remains whether the existing linear codes can predict nonlinear loads and responses with a satisfactory accuracy and how large the deviations from linear predictions are. To indicate it response statistics have been studied based on the model tests carried out with a LNG tanker in the towing tank of the Technical University of Berlin (TUB), and compared with the statistics derived from numerical simulations using the DNV code WASIM. It is a potential code for wave-ship interaction based on 3D Panel method, which can perform both linear and nonlinear simulation. The numerical simulations with WASIM and the model tests in extreme and rogue waves have been performed. The analysis of ship motions (heave and pitch) and bending moments, in both regular and irregular waves, is performed. The results from the linear and nonlinear simulations are compared with experimental data to indicate the impact of wave non-linearity on loads and response calculations when the code based on the Rankine Panel Method is used. The study shows that nonlinearities may have significant effect on extreme motions and bending moment generated by strongly nonlinear waves. The effect of water depth on ship responses is also demonstrated using numerical simulations. Uncertainties related to the results are discussed, giving particular attention to sampling variability.

  18. Observed and simulated hydrologic response for a first-order catchment during extreme rainfall 3 years after wildfire disturbance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ebel, Brian A.; Rengers, Francis; Tucker, Gregory E.

    2016-01-01

    Hydrologic response to extreme rainfall in disturbed landscapes is poorly understood because of the paucity of measurements. A unique opportunity presented itself when extreme rainfall in September 2013 fell on a headwater catchment (i.e., <1 ha) in Colorado, USA that had previously been burned by a wildfire in 2010. We compared measurements of soil-hydraulic properties, soil saturation from subsurface sensors, and estimated peak runoff during the extreme rainfall with numerical simulations of runoff generation and subsurface hydrologic response during this event. The simulations were used to explore differences in runoff generation between the wildfire-affected headwater catchment, a simulated unburned case, and for uniform versus spatially variable parameterizations of soil-hydraulic properties that affect infiltration and runoff generation in burned landscapes. Despite 3 years of elapsed time since the 2010 wildfire, observations and simulations pointed to substantial surface runoff generation in the wildfire-affected headwater catchment by the infiltration-excess mechanism while no surface runoff was generated in the unburned case. The surface runoff generation was the result of incomplete recovery of soil-hydraulic properties in the burned area, suggesting recovery takes longer than 3 years. Moreover, spatially variable soil-hydraulic property parameterizations produced longer duration but lower peak-flow infiltration-excess runoff, compared to uniform parameterization, which may have important hillslope sediment export and geomorphologic implications during long duration, extreme rainfall. The majority of the simulated surface runoff in the spatially variable cases came from connected near-channel contributing areas, which was a substantially smaller contributing area than the uniform simulations.

  19. Observed and simulated hydrologic response for a first-order catchment during extreme rainfall 3 years after wildfire disturbance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebel, Brian A.; Rengers, Francis K.; Tucker, Gregory E.

    2016-12-01

    Hydrologic response to extreme rainfall in disturbed landscapes is poorly understood because of the paucity of measurements. A unique opportunity presented itself when extreme rainfall in September 2013 fell on a headwater catchment (i.e., <1 ha) in Colorado, USA that had previously been burned by a wildfire in 2010. We compared measurements of soil-hydraulic properties, soil saturation from subsurface sensors, and estimated peak runoff during the extreme rainfall with numerical simulations of runoff generation and subsurface hydrologic response during this event. The simulations were used to explore differences in runoff generation between the wildfire-affected headwater catchment, a simulated unburned case, and for uniform versus spatially variable parameterizations of soil-hydraulic properties that affect infiltration and runoff generation in burned landscapes. Despite 3 years of elapsed time since the 2010 wildfire, observations and simulations pointed to substantial surface runoff generation in the wildfire-affected headwater catchment by the infiltration-excess mechanism while no surface runoff was generated in the unburned case. The surface runoff generation was the result of incomplete recovery of soil-hydraulic properties in the burned area, suggesting recovery takes longer than 3 years. Moreover, spatially variable soil-hydraulic property parameterizations produced longer duration but lower peak-flow infiltration-excess runoff, compared to uniform parameterization, which may have important hillslope sediment export and geomorphologic implications during long duration, extreme rainfall. The majority of the simulated surface runoff in the spatially variable cases came from connected near-channel contributing areas, which was a substantially smaller contributing area than the uniform simulations.

  20. Urbanization, Extreme Events, and Health: The Case for Systems Approaches in Mitigation, Management, and Response.

    PubMed

    Siri, José Gabriel; Newell, Barry; Proust, Katrina; Capon, Anthony

    2016-03-01

    Extreme events, both natural and anthropogenic, increasingly affect cities in terms of economic losses and impacts on health and well-being. Most people now live in cities, and Asian cities, in particular, are experiencing growth on unprecedented scales. Meanwhile, the economic and health consequences of climate-related events are worsening, a trend projected to continue. Urbanization, climate change and other geophysical and social forces interact with urban systems in ways that give rise to complex and in many cases synergistic relationships. Such effects may be mediated by location, scale, density, or connectivity, and also involve feedbacks and cascading outcomes. In this context, traditional, siloed, reductionist approaches to understanding and dealing with extreme events are unlikely to be adequate. Systems approaches to mitigation, management and response for extreme events offer a more effective way forward. Well-managed urban systems can decrease risk and increase resilience in the face of such events.

  1. Sexual dimorphism in epigenomic responses of stem cells to extreme fetal growth.

    PubMed

    Delahaye, Fabien; Wijetunga, N Ari; Heo, Hye J; Tozour, Jessica N; Zhao, Yong Mei; Greally, John M; Einstein, Francine H

    2014-10-10

    Extreme fetal growth is associated with increased susceptibility to a range of adult diseases through an unknown mechanism of cellular memory. We tested whether heritable epigenetic processes in long-lived CD34(+) haematopoietic stem/progenitor cells showed evidence for re-programming associated with the extremes of fetal growth. Here we show that both fetal growth restriction and over-growth are associated with global shifts towards DNA hypermethylation, targeting cis-regulatory elements in proximity to genes involved in glucose homeostasis and stem cell function. We find a sexually dimorphic response; intrauterine growth restriction is associated with substantially greater epigenetic dysregulation in males, whereas large for gestational age growth predominantly affects females. The findings are consistent with extreme fetal growth interacting with variable fetal susceptibility to influence cellular ageing and metabolic characteristics through epigenetic mechanisms, potentially generating biomarkers that could identify infants at higher risk for chronic disease later in life.

  2. Response of Mercury to Forest Management Activities and Extreme Weather Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allan, C. J.; Bishop, K.; Bringmark, L.; Garcia, E.; Hellsten, S.; Hogbom, L.; Johansson, K.; Lomander, A.; Meili, M.; Munthe, J.; Nilsson, M.; Povari, P.; Skylberg, U.; Sorenson, R.; Zetterberg, T.; Mackereth, R.

    2009-05-01

    Mercury (Hg) levels are alarmingly high in fish from lakes across Fenno-Scandia and northern North America. Few studies exist as to how one of the primary agents of land use change in northern forests, forest harvesting influences this problem. The studies that do exist all indicate increased transport of Hg in harvested forests and increases in bioaccumulation in downstream aquatic ecosystems. The reported Hg runoff response in these studies is extremely variable and persistent. Recent studies in northern Sweden and Canada indicate that increased runoff Hg fluxes are largely tied to the increase in water yield in harvested catchments while earlier harvest studies in Sweden and Finland also documented significant increases in THg and MeHg runoff concentration along with increased water yield driven transport fluxes. Subsequent data collection from these earlier forest harvest studies have continued to document elevated leaching of MeHg from these catchments well after the initial catchment disturbance. From these studies we estimate that 9-23% of the Hg now in the fish of forested, high-latitude landscapes in Fenno-Scandia can be attributed to forest harvesting operations. In conjunction with the impacts of forestry driven land use change, recent studies in the boreal forest have also documented significant increases in Hg fluxes following the occurrence of drought and large storms. We discuss the potential impacts of an increasing variable climate and the recommendation for the large scale restoration of wetlands and reduced forest drainage in Scandinavia on the Hg/MeHg loadings to aquatic ecosystems in northern forests.

  3. Application of the Most Likely Extreme Response Method for Wave Energy Converters: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Quon, Eliot; Platt, Andrew; Yu, Yi-Hsiang; Lawson, Michael

    2016-07-01

    Extreme loads are often a key cost driver for wave energy converters (WECs). As an alternative to exhaustive Monte Carlo or long-term simulations, the most likely extreme response (MLER) method allows mid- and high-fidelity simulations to be used more efficiently in evaluating WEC response to events at the edges of the design envelope, and is therefore applicable to system design analysis. The study discussed in this paper applies the MLER method to investigate the maximum heave, pitch, and surge force of a point absorber WEC. Most likely extreme waves were obtained from a set of wave statistics data based on spectral analysis and the response amplitude operators (RAOs) of the floating body; the RAOs were computed from a simple radiation-and-diffraction-theory-based numerical model. A weakly nonlinear numerical method and a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method were then applied to compute the short-term response to the MLER wave. Effects of nonlinear wave and floating body interaction on the WEC under the anticipated 100-year waves were examined by comparing the results from the linearly superimposed RAOs, the weakly nonlinear model, and CFD simulations. Overall, the MLER method was successfully applied. In particular, when coupled to a high-fidelity CFD analysis, the nonlinear fluid dynamics can be readily captured.

  4. Application of the Most Likely Extreme Response Method for Wave Energy Converters

    SciTech Connect

    Quon, Eliot; Platt, Andrew; Yu, Yi-Hsiang; Lawson, Michael

    2016-06-24

    Extreme loads are often a key cost driver for wave energy converters (WECs). As an alternative to exhaustive Monte Carlo or long-term simulations, the most likely extreme response (MLER) method allows mid- and high-fidelity simulations to be used more efficiently in evaluating WEC response to events at the edges of the design envelope, and is therefore applicable to system design analysis. The study discussed in this paper applies the MLER method to investigate the maximum heave, pitch, and surge force of a point absorber WEC. Most likely extreme waves were obtained from a set of wave statistics data based on spectral analysis and the response amplitude operators (RAOs) of the floating body; the RAOs were computed from a simple radiation-and-diffraction-theory-based numerical model. A weakly nonlinear numerical method and a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method were then applied to compute the short-term response to the MLER wave. Effects of nonlinear wave and floating body interaction on the WEC under the anticipated 100-year waves were examined by comparing the results from the linearly superimposed RAOs, the weakly nonlinear model, and CFD simulations. Overall, the MLER method was successfully applied. In particular, when coupled to a high-fidelity CFD analysis, the nonlinear fluid dynamics can be readily captured.

  5. Evaluation of Piloted Inputs for Onboard Frequency Response Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grauer, Jared A.; Martos, Borja

    2013-01-01

    Frequency response estimation results are presented using piloted inputs and a real-time estimation method recently developed for multisine inputs. A nonlinear simulation of the F-16 and a Piper Saratoga research aircraft were subjected to different piloted test inputs while the short period stabilator/elevator to pitch rate frequency response was estimated. Results show that the method can produce accurate results using wide-band piloted inputs instead of multisines. A new metric is introduced for evaluating which data points to include in the analysis and recommendations are provided for applying this method with piloted inputs.

  6. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

    PubMed

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

  7. Antarctic Climate Change: Extreme Events Disrupt Plastic Phenotypic Response in Adélie Penguins

    PubMed Central

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G.

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A ‘natural experiment’ brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The ‘natural experiment’ uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657

  8. The Use of Multi-Sensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimates for Deriving Extreme Precipitation Frequencies with Application in Louisiana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Dardiry, Hisham Abd El-Kareem

    The Radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) is one of the NEXRAD products that are available in a high temporal and spatial resolution compared with gauges. Radar-based QPEs have been widely used in many hydrological and meteorological applications; however, a few studies have focused on using radar QPE products in deriving of Precipitation Frequency Estimates (PFE). Accurate and regionally specific information on PFE is critically needed for various water resources engineering planning and design purposes. This study focused first on examining the data quality of two main radar products, the near real-time Stage IV QPE product, and the post real-time RFC/MPE product. Assessment of the Stage IV product showed some alarming data artifacts that contaminate the identification of rainfall maxima. Based on the inter-comparison analysis of the two products, Stage IV and RFC/MPE, the latter was selected for the frequency analysis carried out throughout the study. The precipitation frequency analysis approach used in this study is based on fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution as a statistical model for the hydrologic extreme rainfall data that based on Annual Maximum Series (AMS) extracted from 11 years (2002-2012) over a domain covering Louisiana. The parameters of the GEV model are estimated using method of linear moments (L-moments). Two different approaches are suggested for estimating the precipitation frequencies; Pixel-Based approach, in which PFEs are estimated at each individual pixel and Region-Based approach in which a synthetic sample is generated at each pixel by using observations from surrounding pixels. The region-based technique outperforms the pixel based estimation when compared with results obtained by NOAA Atlas 14; however, the availability of only short record of observations and the underestimation of radar QPE for some extremes causes considerable reduction in precipitation frequencies in pixel-based and region

  9. TEMPERATURE AND DENSITY ESTIMATES OF EXTREME-ULTRAVIOLET FLARE RIBBONS DERIVED FROM TRACE DIFFRACTION PATTERNS

    SciTech Connect

    Krucker, Saem; Raftery, Claire L.; Hudson, Hugh S.

    2011-06-10

    We report on Transition Region And Coronal Explorer 171 A observations of the GOES X20 class flare on 2001 April 2 that shows EUV flare ribbons with intense diffraction patterns. Between the 11th to 14th order, the diffraction patterns of the compact flare ribbon are dispersed into two sources. The two sources are identified as emission from the Fe IX line at 171.1 A and the combined emission from Fe X lines at 174.5, 175.3, and 177.2 A. The prominent emission of the Fe IX line indicates that the EUV-emitting ribbon has a strong temperature component near the lower end of the 171 A temperature response ({approx}0.6-1.5 MK). Fitting the observation with an isothermal model, the derived temperature is around 0.65 MK. However, the low sensitivity of the 171 A filter to high-temperature plasma does not provide estimates of the emission measure for temperatures above {approx}1.5 MK. Using the derived temperature of 0.65 MK, the observed 171 A flux gives a density of the EUV ribbon of 3 x 10{sup 11} cm{sup -3}. This density is much lower than the density of the hard X-ray producing region ({approx}10{sup 13} to 10{sup 14} cm{sup -3}) suggesting that the EUV sources, though closely related spatially, lie at higher altitudes.

  10. Temperature and Density Estimates of Extreme-ultraviolet Flare Ribbons Derived from TRACE Diffraction Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krucker, Säm; Raftery, Claire L.; Hudson, Hugh S.

    2011-06-01

    We report on Transition Region And Coronal Explorer 171 Å observations of the GOES X20 class flare on 2001 April 2 that shows EUV flare ribbons with intense diffraction patterns. Between the 11th to 14th order, the diffraction patterns of the compact flare ribbon are dispersed into two sources. The two sources are identified as emission from the Fe IX line at 171.1 Å and the combined emission from Fe X lines at 174.5, 175.3, and 177.2 Å. The prominent emission of the Fe IX line indicates that the EUV-emitting ribbon has a strong temperature component near the lower end of the 171 Å temperature response (~0.6-1.5 MK). Fitting the observation with an isothermal model, the derived temperature is around 0.65 MK. However, the low sensitivity of the 171 Å filter to high-temperature plasma does not provide estimates of the emission measure for temperatures above ~1.5 MK. Using the derived temperature of 0.65 MK, the observed 171 Å flux gives a density of the EUV ribbon of 3 × 1011 cm-3. This density is much lower than the density of the hard X-ray producing region (~1013 to 1014 cm-3) suggesting that the EUV sources, though closely related spatially, lie at higher altitudes.

  11. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters and quantiles of the general extreme-value distribution from censored samples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phien, Huynh Ngoc; Fang, Tsu-Shang Emma

    1989-01-01

    The General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution has become increasingly popular, as has the use of historic information, in flood frequency analysis during recent years. Both call for a systematic investigation of the properties of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators obtained from censored samples. In this study, such an investigation was made for the type-1 censoring believed to be more frequently encountered in practical situations. All the mathematical equations needed for obtaining the ML estimators of the parameters and the quantiles (represented by the T- year event) were derived and Monte Carlo experiments were carried out to determine their sampling properties. It was found that censoring may reduce the bias of the parameter estimators but does not necessarily increase the variances. It was also found that the variances-covariances of the parameter estimators, and hence the variance of the T- year event, are better approximated by using the observed rather than the Fisher information matrix.

  12. Response of shoal grass, Halodule wrightii, to extreme winter conditions in the Lower Laguna Madre, Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hicks, D.W.; Onuf, C.P.; Tunnell, J.W.

    1998-01-01

    Effects of a severe freeze on the shoal grass, Halodule wrightii, were documented through analysis of temporal and spatial trends in below-ground biomass. The coincidence of the second lowest temperature (-10.6??C) in 107 years of record, 56 consecutive hours below freezing, high winds and extremely low water levels exposed the Laguna Madre, TX, to the most severe cold stress in over a century. H. wrightii tolerated this extreme freeze event. Annual pre- and post-freeze surveys indicated that below-ground biomass estimated from volume was Unaffected by the freeze event. Nor was there any post-freeze change in biomass among intertidal sites directly exposed to freezing air temperatures relative to subtidal sites which remained submerged during the freezing period.

  13. Ergonomic stressors and upper extremity disorders in vehicle manufacturing: cross sectional exposure-response trends

    PubMed Central

    Punnett, L.

    1998-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between upper extremity soft tissue disorders and exposure to preventable ergonomic stressors in vehicle manufacturing operations. METHODS: A cross sectional study was conducted in one vehicle stamping plant and one engine assembly plant. A standardised physical examination of the upper extremities was performed on all subjects. An interviewer administered questionnaire obtained data on demographics, work history, musculoskeletal symptoms, non-occupational covariates, and psycho-physical (relative intensity) ratings of ergonomic stressors. The primary exposure score was computed by summing the responses to the psychophysical exposure items. Multivariate regression analysis was used to model the prevalence of disorders of the shoulders or upper arms, wrists or hands, and all upper extremity regions (each defined both by symptoms and by physical examination plus symptoms) as a function of exposure quartile. RESULTS: A total of 1315 workers (85% of the target population) was examined. The prevalence of symptom disorders was 22% for the wrists or hands and 15% for the shoulders or upper arms; cases defined on the basis of a physical examination were about 80% as frequent. Disorders of the upper extremities, shoulders, and wrists or hands all increased markedly with exposure score, after adjustment for plant, acute injury, sex, body mass index, systemic disease, and seniority. CONCLUSIONS: Musculoskeletal disorders of the upper extremities were strongly associated with exposure to combined ergonomic stressors. The exposure- response trend was very similar for symptom cases and for physical examination cases. It is important to evaluate all dimensions of ergonomic exposure in epidemiological studies, as exposures often occur in combination in actual workplaces.   PMID:9764102

  14. A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability

    PubMed Central

    Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.

    2013-01-01

    We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722

  15. Extreme flood estimation by the SCHADEX method in a snow-driven catchment: application to Atnasjø (Norway)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paquet, Emmanuel; Lawrence, Deborah

    2013-04-01

    The SCHADEX method for extreme flood estimation was developed by Paquet et al. (2006, 2013), and since 2008, it is the reference method used by Electricité de France (EDF) for dam spillway design. SCHADEX is a so-called "semi-continuous" stochastic simulation method in that flood events are simulated on an event basis and are superimposed on a continuous simulation of the catchment saturation hazard usingrainfall-runoff modelling. The MORDOR hydrological model (Garçon, 1999) has thus far been used for the rainfall-runoff modelling. MORDOR is a conceptual, lumped, reservoir model with daily areal rainfall and air temperature as the driving input data. The principal hydrological processes represented are evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, ground water, snow accumulation and melt, and routing. The model has been intensively used at EDF for more than 15 years, in particular for inflow forecasts for French mountainous catchments. SCHADEX has now also been applied to the Atnasjø catchment (463 km²), a well-documented inland catchment in south-central Norway, dominated by snowmelt flooding during spring/early summer. To support this application, a weather pattern classification based on extreme rainfall was first established for Norway (Fleig, 2012). This classification scheme was then used to build a Multi-Exponential Weather Pattern distribution (MEWP), as introduced by Garavaglia et al. (2010) for extreme rainfall estimation. The MORDOR model was then calibrated relative to daily discharge data for Atnasjø. Finally, a SCHADEX simulation was run to build a daily discharge distribution with a sufficient number of simulations for assessing the extreme quantiles. Detailed results are used to illustrate how SCHADEX handles the complex and interacting hydrological processes driving flood generation in this snow driven catchment. Seasonal and monthly distributions, as well as statistics for several thousand simulated events reaching a 1000 years return level

  16. Estimation of mean response via effective balancing score.

    PubMed

    Hu, Zonghui; Follmann, Dean A; Wang, Naisyin

    2014-09-01

    We introduce effective balancing scores for estimation of the mean response under a missing at random mechanism. Unlike conventional balancing scores, the effective balancing scores are constructed via dimension reduction free of model specification. Three types of effective balancing scores are introduced: those that carry the covariate information about the missingness, the response, or both. They lead to consistent estimation with little or no loss in efficiency. Compared to existing estimators, the effective balancing score based estimator relieves the burden of model specification and is the most robust. It is a near-automatic procedure which is most appealing when high dimensional covariates are involved. We investigate both the asymptotic and the numerical properties, and demonstrate the proposed method in a study on Human Immunodeficiency Virus disease.

  17. Channel response to extreme floods: Insights on controlling factors from six mountain rivers in northern Apennines, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Surian, Nicola; Righini, Margherita; Lucía, Ana; Nardi, Laura; Amponsah, William; Benvenuti, Marco; Borga, Marco; Cavalli, Marco; Comiti, Francesco; Marchi, Lorenzo; Rinaldi, Massimo; Viero, Alessia

    2016-11-01

    This work addresses the geomorphic response of mountain rivers to extreme floods, exploring the relationships between morphological changes and controlling factors. The research was conducted on six tributaries of the Magra River (northern Apennines, Italy) whose catchments were affected by an extreme flood (estimated recurrence interval > 100 years in most of the basins) on 25 October 2011. An integrated approach was deployed to study this flood, including (i) analysis of channel width changes by comparing aerial photographs taken before and after the flood, (ii) estimate of peak discharges in ungauged streams, (iii) detailed mapping of landslides and analysis of their connectivity with the channel network. Channel widening occurred in 35 reaches out of 39. In reaches with channel slope < 4% (here defined as nonsteep reaches), average and maximum ratios of post-flood and pre-flood channel width were 5.2 and 19.7 (i.e., channel widened from 4 to 82 m), respectively. In steep reaches (slope ≥ 4%), widening was slightly less intense (i.e., average width ratio = 3.4, maximum width ratio = 9.6). The relationships between the degree of channel widening and seven controlling factors were explored at subreach scale by using multiple regression models. In the steep subreaches characterized by higher confinement, the degree of channel widening (i.e., width ratio) showed relatively strong relationships with cross-sectional stream power, unit stream power (calculated based on pre-flood channel width), and lateral confinement, with coefficients of multiple determination (R2) ranging between 0.43 and 0.67. The models for the nonsteep subreaches provided a lower explanation of widening variability, with R2 ranging from 0.30 to 0.38; in these reaches a significant although weak relation was found between the degree of channel widening and the hillslope area supplying sediment to the channels. Results indicate that hydraulic variables alone are not sufficient to satisfactorily

  18. Role of Soils in Hydrologic Response to Climate Extremes and Land Use Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z.; Save, H.; Reedy, R. C.; Faunt, C. C.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing demand for water in response to growing global population underscores the need to better understand linkages and feedbacks between land surface processes and water resources to manage water resources more sustainably. Here we examine the role of soils on hydrologic response to climate extremes and land use change using field scale and remote sensing data at point to basin scales in the U.S. High Plains and California Central Valley. In the U.S. High Plains, soil-textural variations make the difference between sustainable water resources related to coarse-grained soils in the northern High Plains and groundwater mining associated with fine-grained soils in much of the central and southern High Plains. Field data show dynamic response of water resources to droughts and land use change in the northern High Plains with limited response in much of the central and southern High Plains. Soil profiles provide a key to the past by archiving system response to environmental changes in subsurface soil physics and environmental tracer data. Areas with coarse-grained soils are vulnerable to reduced recharge during droughts and increased recharge with land use change from perennial to annual vegetation whereas fine-grained soils are generally insensitive to these stresses. GRACE satellite monitoring of total water storage variations in response to recent droughts is consistent with these spatial variations in soils across the High Plains and hydrologic response to droughts.In the California Central Valley, coarse grained soils in alluvial basins result in dynamic hydrologic responses to climate extremes. GRACE satellite data show marked depletion in total water storage in response to recent droughts reflecting groundwater and surface reservoir storage declines consistent with regional groundwater modeling and monitoring data. The coarse alluvial soils typical of much of the region facilitate managed aquifer recharge in depleted aquifers to complement surface reservoir

  19. The Stability of Extreme Response Style and Acquiescence Over 8 Years.

    PubMed

    Wetzel, Eunike; Lüdtke, Oliver; Zettler, Ingo; Böhnke, Jan R

    2016-06-01

    This study investigated the stability of extreme response style (ERS) and acquiescence response style (ARS) over a period of 8 years. ERS and ARS were measured with item sets drawn randomly from a large pool of items used in an ongoing German panel study. Latent-trait-state-occasion and latent-state models were applied to test the relationship between time-specific (state) response style behaviors and time-invariant trait components of response styles. The results show that across different random item samples, on average between 49% and 59% of the variance in the state response style factors was explained by the trait response style factors. This indicates that the systematic differences respondents show in their preferences for certain response categories are remarkably stable over a period of 8 years. The stability of ERS and ARS implies that it is important to consider response styles in the analysis of self-report data from polytomous rating scales, especially in longitudinal studies aimed at investigating stability in substantive traits. Furthermore, the stability of response styles raises the question in how far they might be considered trait-like latent variables themselves that could be of substantive interest.

  20. Methodology for Estimating Ingestion Dose for Emergency Response at SRS

    SciTech Connect

    Simpkins, A.A.

    2003-07-21

    At the Savannah River Site (SRS), emergency response computer models are used to estimate dose following releases of radioactive materials to the environment. Downwind air and ground concentrations and their associated doses from inhalation and ground shine pathways are estimated. The emergency response model (PUFF-PLUME) uses real-time data to track either instantaneous (puff) or continuous (plume) releases. A site-specific ingestion dose model was developed for use with PUFF-PLUME that includes the following ingestion dose pathways pertinent to the surrounding SRS area: milk, beef, water, and fish. The model is simplistic and can be used with existing code output.

  1. Estimation of the phase response curve from Parkinsonian tremor

    PubMed Central

    Saifee, Tabish A.; Edwards, Mark J.; Kassavetis, Panagiotis

    2015-01-01

    Phase response curves (PRCs), characterizing the response of an oscillator to weak external perturbation, have been estimated from a broad range of biological oscillators, including single neurons in vivo. PRC estimates, in turn, provide an intuitive insight into how oscillatory systems become entrained and how they can be desynchronized. Here, we explore the application of PRC theory to the case of Parkinsonian tremor. Initial attempts to establish a causal effect of subthreshold transcranial magnetic stimulation applied to primary motor cortex on the filtered tremor phase were unsuccessful. We explored the possible explanations of this and demonstrate that assumptions made when estimating the PRC in a traditional setting, such as a single neuron, are not arbitrary when applied to the case of tremor PRC estimation. We go on to extract the PRC of Parkinsonian tremor using an iterative method that requires varying the definition of the tremor cycle and estimating the PRC at multiple peristimulus time samples. Justification for this method is supported by estimates of PRC from simulated single neuron data. We provide an approach to estimating confidence limits for tremor PRC and discuss the interpretational caveats introduced by tremor harmonics and the intrinsic variability of the tremor's period. PMID:26561596

  2. Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haigh, Ivan D.; MacPherson, Leigh R.; Mason, Matthew S.; Wijeratne, E. M. S.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Crompton, Ryan P.; George, Steve

    2014-01-01

    The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with

  3. On the mechanical modeling of the extreme softening/stiffening response of axially loaded tensegrity prisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraternali, Fernando; Carpentieri, Gerardo; Amendola, Ada

    2015-01-01

    We study the geometrically nonlinear behavior of uniformly compressed tensegrity prisms through fully elastic and rigid-elastic models. The given models predict a variety of mechanical behaviors in the regime of large displacements, including an extreme stiffening-type response, already known in the literature, and a newly discovered, extreme softening behavior. The latter may lead to a snap buckling event producing an axial collapse of the structure. The switching from one mechanical regime to another depends on the aspect ratio of the structure, the magnitude of the applied prestress, and the material properties of the constituent elements. We discuss potential mechanical and acoustic applications of such behaviors, which are related to the design and manufacture of tensegrity lattices and innovative metamaterials.

  4. Dynamic response analysis of a heavy commercial vehicle subjected to extreme road operating conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chinnaraj, K.; Mangalaramanan, S. P.; Lakshmana Rao, C.

    2009-08-01

    Wheel excitations measured on a heavy commercial vehicle by driving it through extreme road operating conditions, are considered as inputs to perform dynamic response analysis in a simulated laboratory and computational environment. From initial modal analysis results using finite elements, critical vehicle frame rail locations are identified for dynamic laboratory strain measurements on a six poster road load simulator that employs dynamic wheel excitations as input. Dynamic stresses calculated from measured strain values are then compared with computationally obtained stress results on each of these locations. This study also points out all geometric locations and vibration modes that may affect the design behavior of the frame members under extreme road operating conditions. The results obtained from this work can be considered for further fatigue life prediction and design optimization of chassis frame rail assembly.

  5. Academic environment and dynamics in response to extreme events: Theory and Practice (Katrina Lessons)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sidorovskaia, Natalia

    2008-03-01

    The possibility of a catastrophic event requires the department as a unit and the university as an organization to devise a comprehensive emergency response plan to minimize the impact and shorten the recovery stage. Does the academic organizational structure and environment possess key features for the possibility of successful response to extreme events? The post Hurricane Katrina experience of Louisiana universities offers data to address this theoretical question. It also emphasizes that the mitigation plan should include two aspects: preparing/protecting a university for/during a catastrophic event and assisting other academic institutions experiencing an extreme event. Short-term and longer-term statistics and other data pertain to the interaction of the University of Louisiana at Lafayette (as an assistance unit) with the universities in New Orleans (units in distress), including the dynamics of student population, faculty influx, course adjustments, and response and recovery actions are presented. An attempt is made to categorize the losses and to assess the recovery quality and time. Faculty and institutional administration interviews are summarized to assist in developing future proactive response plans. UL Lafayette and UNO research capabilities and intellectual resources for developing complex models simulating the multi-variable effects of catastrophic events and providing adaptability in the decision-making process are investigated.

  6. Mass balance method for estimating transcapillary protein transport in an extremity

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, J.J.; Hing, C.T.

    1985-03-01

    A clinical procedure for applying the mass balance method to estimate transcapillary protein transport was compared with the experimental procedure of direct tissue monitoring of the rate of /sup 125/I- albumin accumulation in the dog hindlimb under conditions of venous pressure (Pv) elevation, norepinephrine infusion, and hemorrhagic hypotension. Over a wide range of venous protein flux (0.2 to 4.6 mg/min x 100 gm), the two estimates correlated well. The correlation coefficients were 0.987, 0.962, and 0.993 for Pv elevation in the control state, during norepinephrine infusion, and following hemorrhage, respectively. Since the clinical format requires only estimates of tissue blood flow, the change in tissue volume, and the change in protein concentration easily obtained with strain gauge plethysmography and venous blood sampling, it represents a relatively innocuous procedure for estimating protein transport which should be suitable for clinical application.

  7. Extreme Sea Conditions in Shallow Water: Estimation based on in-situ measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Crom, Izan; Saulnier, Jean-Baptiste

    2013-04-01

    The design of marine renewable energy devices and components is based, among others, on the assessment of the environmental extreme conditions (winds, currents, waves, and water level) that must be combined together in order to evaluate the maximal loads on a floating/fixed structure, and on the anchoring system over a determined return period. Measuring devices are generally deployed at sea over relatively short durations (a few months to a few years), typically when describing water free surface elevation, and extrapolation methods based on hindcast data (and therefore on wave simulation models) have to be used. How to combine, in a realistic way, the action of the different loads (winds and waves for instance) and which correlation of return periods should be used are highly topical issues. However, the assessment of the extreme condition itself remains a not-fully-solved, crucial, and sensitive task. Above all in shallow water, extreme wave height, Hmax, is the most significant contribution in the dimensioning process of EMR devices. As a case study, existing methodologies for deep water have been applied to SEMREV, the French marine energy test site. The interest of this study, especially at this location, goes beyond the simple application to SEMREV's WEC and floating wind turbines deployment as it could also be extended to the Banc de Guérande offshore wind farm that are planned close by. More generally to pipes and communication cables as it is a redundant problematic. The paper will first present the existing measurements (wave and wind on site), the prediction chain that has been developed via wave models, the extrapolation methods applied to hindcast data, and will try to formulate recommendations for improving this assessment in shallow water.

  8. Application of artificial neural network with extreme learning machine for economic growth estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milačić, Ljubiša; Jović, Srđan; Vujović, Tanja; Miljković, Jovica

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to develop and apply the artificial neural network (ANN) with extreme learning machine (ELM) to forecast gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. The economic growth forecasting was analyzed based on agriculture, manufacturing, industry and services value added in GDP. The results were compared with ANN with back propagation (BP) learning approach since BP could be considered as conventional learning methodology. The reliability of the computational models was accessed based on simulation results and using several statistical indicators. Based on results, it was shown that ANN with ELM learning methodology can be applied effectively in applications of GDP forecasting.

  9. Amplification of extreme precipitation response to climate change over Lake Victoria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard; Seneviratne, Sonia; Bedka, Kristopher; van Lipzig, Nicole

    2015-04-01

    Casualties among fishermen operating on Lake Victoria are estimated to amount up to several thousand per year, leading to the dubious distinction of "world's most lethal lake". Most of the casualties are caused by severe thunderstorms occurring at night, when surface winds converge over the lake and trigger deep convection of air masses moistened by the lake. With the climate change induced raise in troposphere temperatures, the frequency and intensity of these extremes are likely to increase. However, up to now only very little is known about the processes underlying this nighttime convection, and how it will be affected by climate change. We examine the impact of climate change on hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria by conducting a set of regional climate model simulations which resolve individual lakes and explicitly compute lake temperatures. The regional climate model COSMO-CLM² is used to dynamically downscale a CORDEX-Africa projection (COSMO-CLM/MPI-ESM-LR) under RCP8.5 to 7 km grid spacing for the periods 1981-2010 and 2071-2100. Based on these high resolution simulations, we project that the increase in extreme precipitation is amplified over Lake Victoria compared to surrounding land area, consistent with projections from the (courser-scale) CORDEX-Africa ensemble. Moreover, the strongest extremes are found to follow the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling over the lake surface only. Finally, we investigate controls on the occurrence of this extreme precipitation in the present-day climate using satellite observations and a dynamical reanalysis downscaling, and detect a strong relationship with antecedent daytime land thunderstorms. Besides supplying moisture, these storms also modify mesoscale circulation in favor of strong over-lake convection the following night. Extending this analysis will make it possible to attribute the projected lake amplification effect to changes in the controlling factors.

  10. Study on quantile estimates of extreme precipitation and their spatiotemporal consistency adjustment over the Huaihe River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shao, Yuehong; Wu, Junmei; Li, Min

    2017-01-01

    The quantile estimates and spatiotemporal consistency of extreme precipitation are studied by regional linear frequency analysis for Huaihe River basin in China. Firstly, the study area can be categorized into six homogeneous regions by using cluster analysis, heterogeneity measure, and discordancy measure. In the next step, we determine the optimum distribution for each homogeneous region by using two criteria of Monte Carlo simulations and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the sample L-moments. A diagram of L-moments ratio is used to further judge and validate the optimum distribution. The generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized normal (GNO), and generalized logistic (GLO) for 24-h duration are determined to be the more appropriate distribution based on the two criteria, L-moments ratio plot, and the tail thickness of curve in adjacent regions. A summary assessment can provide the more reasonable distribution, which avoids arbitrary results from single test. An important practical element of this study that was missing from previous works is the quantile spatiotemporal consistency analysis, which helps identify non-monotonicity among quantiles at different durations and reduces the gradient of estimates in the adjacent regions. Abnormality and spatial discontinuation can be removed by distributing the surplus of the ratio and twice different interpolation. A complete set of spatiotemporal consistent quantile estimates for various duration (24 h, 3 days, 5 days, and 7 days) and return periods (from 2 to 1000 years) can be obtained by using the abovementioned method in the study area, which are in the agreement with the observed precipitation extremes. It will provide important basis for hydrometeorological research, which is of significant scientific and practical merit.

  11. Evidence for Two Extremes of Ciliary Motor Response in a Single Swimming Microorganism

    PubMed Central

    Jung, Ilyong; Powers, Thomas R.; Valles, James M.

    2014-01-01

    Because arrays of motile cilia drive fluids for a range of processes, the versatile mechano-chemical mechanism coordinating them has been under scrutiny. The protist Paramecium presents opportunities to compare how groups of cilia perform two distinct functions, swimming propulsion and nutrient uptake. We present how the body cilia responsible for propulsion and the oral-groove cilia responsible for nutrient uptake respond to changes in their mechanical environment accomplished by varying the fluid viscosity over a factor of 7. Analysis with a phenomenological model of trajectories of swimmers made neutrally buoyant with magnetic forces combined with high-speed imaging of ciliary beating reveal that the body cilia exert a nearly constant propulsive force primarily by reducing their beat frequency as viscosity increases. By contrast, the oral-groove cilia beat at a nearly constant frequency. The existence of two extremes of motor response in a unicellular organism prompts unique investigations of factors controlling ciliary beating. PMID:24411242

  12. Magnetotelluric Response Function Estimation Based on Hilbert-Huang Transform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Jian-hua

    2013-11-01

    Magnetotelluric (MT) data series are non-stationary random signals that do not meet the basic requirements of conventional methods based on the Fourier transform. To minimize the estimation bias errors brought about by the non-stationary characteristics of MT data, a new method, based on the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT), is proposed for the first time for estimating the MT response functions from a time series of electromagnetic field variations. With the HHT method, the amplitude of data series are expressed as a function of frequency and time and then response functions are estimated statistically from the time-frequency spectrum. Mathematical model and calculation processes are introduced and some simulated data are analyzed to verify the correctness of the method. Finally, the measured MT data is facilitated by applying the HHT to assess the ability of HHT method to quantify meaningful geologic information.

  13. Experimal study of young male drivers' responses to vehicle collision using EMG of lower extremity.

    PubMed

    Gao, Zhenhai; Li, Chuzhao; Hu, Hongyu; Zhao, Hui; Chen, Chaoyang; Yu, Huili

    2015-01-01

    A driver's response to a front-coming vehicle collision consists of braking reaction time and braking behavior. The purpose was to investigate drivers' responses at different speeds, relative distances, and particularly the behavior on the accelerator at the collision moment. Twelve young men participated in driving simulator tests. Vehicle parameters and electromyograms (EMGs) of the drivers' tibialis anterior muscles were recorded and responses were analyzed. The drivers' braking reaction time windows were divided into pre-motor time, muscle activation time, accelerator release time, and movement time. By comparing the reaction times and collision times, braking behaviors were investigated. It was found that movement times (r = -0.281) decreased with speed. Pre-motor times (r = 0.326) and muscle activation times (r = 0.281) increased with relative distance. At the collision moment, the probability of the driver's lower extremity being on the accelerator, in the air, and on the brake pedal was 7.4%, 18.9%, and 73.7%, respectively. With higher speeds and smaller distances, the lower extremity was more likely to be in the air or even on the accelerator in different muscle activation states. The driver will collide in normal driving postures which muscles are not or not fully activated in very urgent situation.

  14. Altered breathing mechanics and ventilatory response during exercise in children born extremely preterm

    PubMed Central

    DeHaan, K; Fuhr, D; Hariharan, S; Kamstra, B; Hendson, L; Adatia, I; Majaesic, C; Lovering, A T; Thompson, R B; Nicholas, D; Thebaud, B; Stickland, M K

    2016-01-01

    Background Extreme preterm birth confers risk of long-term impairments in lung function and exercise capacity. There are limited data on the factors contributing to exercise limitation following extreme preterm birth. This study examined respiratory mechanics and ventilatory response during exercise in a large cohort of children born extremely preterm (EP). Methods This cohort study included children 8–12 years of age who were born EP (≤28 weeks gestation) between 1997 and 2004 and treated in a large regionalised neonatal intensive care unit in western Canada. EP children were divided into no/mild bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) (ie, supplementary oxygen or ventilation ceased before 36 weeks gestational age; n=53) and moderate/severe BPD (ie, continued supplementary oxygen or ventilation at 36 weeks gestational age; n=50). Age-matched control children (n=65) were born at full term. All children attempted lung function and cardiopulmonary exercise testing measurements. Results Compared with control children, EP children had lower airway flows and diffusion capacity but preserved total lung capacity. Children with moderate/severe BPD had evidence of gas trapping relative to other groups. The mean difference in exercise capacity (as measured by oxygen uptake (VO2)% predicted) in children with moderate/severe BPD was −18±5% and −14±5.0% below children with no/mild BPD and control children, respectively. Children with moderate/severe BPD demonstrated a potentiated ventilatory response and greater prevalence of expiratory flow limitation during exercise compared with other groups. Resting lung function did not correlate with exercise capacity. Conclusions Expiratory flow limitation and an exaggerated ventilatory response contribute to respiratory limitation to exercise in children born EP with moderate/severe BPD. PMID:27259338

  15. Workstyle: development of a measure of response to work in those with upper extremity pain.

    PubMed

    Feuerstein, Michael; Nicholas, Rena A; Huang, Grant D; Haufler, Amy J; Pransky, Glenn; Robertson, Michele

    2005-06-01

    Workstyle or the behavioral, cognitive, and physiological response that can occur in some individuals to increases in work demands has been proposed to help explain the link between ergonomic and psychosocial factors in the exacerbation of work-related upper extremity symptoms. Currently, there is no measure of this construct, hindering research on its potential link to work related upper extremity problems in the workplace. The present study describes the development and psychometric properties of a measure of workstyle. Questionnaire items reflecting dimensions of workstyle as per the original conceptualization were generated primarily through focus groups with office workers and separate groups held with occupational physicians, physical therapists, occupational health psychologists, and experts in ergonomics, behavioral science, and human factors. Items created through this process were then administered to 282 symptomatic and asymptomatic office workers. Measures of job stress, ergonomic risk, upper extremity symptoms, and functional limitations were also obtained. The workstyle questionnaire was divided into two broad dimensions: Characteristic responses to work and Response to increased work demands. The scale development process as indicated by factor analysis yielded subscales that are theoretically consistent with the workstyle construct. These subscales include: working through pain, social reactivity at work, limited workplace support, deadlines/pressure, self imposed work pace/workload, breaks, mood, pain/tension, autonomic response, and numbness tingling. The internal consistency of these subscales varied from 0.61 to 0.91, n = 282 while the test-retest (3 weeks) reliability for the various subscales ranged from r = 0.68 to 0.89, n = 143. A total workstyle score was computed that excluded the pain/tension and numbness/tingling subscales to avoid circular reasoning in terms of the measure's relationship to outcomes of pain and functional limitations

  16. Boron stress response and accumulation potential of the extremely tolerant species Puccinellia frigida.

    PubMed

    Rámila, Consuelo D P; Contreras, Samuel A; Di Domenico, Camila; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A; Vega, Andrea; Handford, Michael; Bonilla, Carlos A; Pizarro, Gonzalo E

    2016-11-05

    Phytoremediation is a promising technology to tackle boron toxicity, which restricts agricultural activities in many arid and semi-arid areas. Puccinellia frigida is a perennial grass that was reported to hyperaccumulate boron in extremely boron-contaminated sites. To further investigate its potential for phytoremediation, we determined its response to boron stress under controlled conditions (hydroponic culture). Also, as a first step towards understanding the mechanisms underlying its extreme tolerance, we evaluated the presence and expression of genes related with boron tolerance. We found that P. frigida grew normally even at highly toxic boron concentrations in the medium (500mg/L), and within its tissues (>5000mg/kg DW). We postulate that the strategies conferring this extreme tolerance involve both restricting boron accumulation and an internal tolerance mechanism; this is consistent with the identification of putative genes involved in both mechanisms, including the expression of a possible boron efflux transporter. We also found that P. frigida hyperaccumulated boron over a wide range of boron concentrations. We propose that P. frigida could be used for boron phytoremediation strategies in places with different soil characteristics and boron concentrations. Further studies should pave the way for the development of clean and low-cost solutions to boron toxicity problems.

  17. Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation of hierarchical response time models

    PubMed Central

    Farrell, Simon; Ludwig, Casimir

    2008-01-01

    Hierarchical (or multilevel) statistical models have become increasingly popular in psychology in the last few years. We consider the application of multilevel modeling to the ex-Gaussian, a popular model of response times. Single-level estimation is compared with hierarchical estimation of parameters of the ex-Gaussian distribution. Additionally, for each approach maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is compared with Bayesian estimation. A set of simulations and analyses of parameter recovery show that although all methods perform adequately well, hierarchical methods are better able to recover the parameters of the ex-Gaussian by reducing the variability in recovered parameters. At each level, little overall difference was observed between the ML and Bayesian methods. PMID:19001592

  18. Geomorphically Effective Energy Expenditure for Quantifying Channel Responses to Extreme Floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amponsah, William; Righini, Margherita; Wohl, Ellen E.; Borga, Marco; Marchi, Lorenzo; Rathburn, Sara L.; Surian, Nicola; Zoccatelli, Davide

    2016-04-01

    Flash floods are characterized by strong spatio-temporal rainfall variability and therefore show variations in energy expenditure and associated geomorphic impacts that depend on geological controls on channel geometry and sediment characteristics, as well as on variations in flood intensity. Geomorphic modification is expected to occur in river channels when driving forces (i.e., hydraulic and abrasive forces of water and sediment acting on the channel) exceed threshold of resisting forces (i.e., the ability of channel boundaries to remain unchanged by the passage of water and sediments). However, these forces that determine the capacity of floods to modify existing channel configuration are extremely difficult to quantify. Geomorphic impacts or hazards usually take the form of erosional and depositional modification of the pre-flood channel and valley geometry. A central question in hydrogeomorphology relates to why flash floods of similar magnitudes and intensities sometimes produce dissimilar geomorphic results? In fact, some less magnitude floods in terms of discharge per unit of drainage area have been found to produce major geomorphic damage than some high magnitude events. Furthermore, the use of peak instantaneous flow parameters such as discharge, velocity, shear stress and stream power to quantify geomorphic changes have often been non-deterministic and/or inconclusive. Investigations are therefore needed on how factors such as channel geometry, substrate, riparian vegetation, sediment supply, and flood magnitude and duration can interact and influence geomorphic effectiveness of high magnitude floods. The main objective of this study is to assess the coupled influence of flood-flow duration and total energy expenditure on geomorphic response to extreme flash floods, which is aimed at developing an index that combines flow duration, stream power per unit area and threshold for major channel erosion to be evaluated as a predictor of geomorphic adjustment

  19. Differing Response of Extreme Precipitation to Changing Boundary Conditions in Simulations with Parametrized and Explicit Convection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meredith, Edmund; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir; Park, Wonsun

    2015-04-01

    Recent studies have shown that the representation of extreme precipitation in climate models is much more sensitive to model resolution than that of mean precipitation. With global and regional circulation models simulating both present and future climates at ever-increasing resolution, it is only a matter of time before convection resolving climate projections become the norm. In the meantime, regional climate models provide an efficient and inexpensive tool to assess what, if any, impact explicitly resolved convection may have on the representation of precipitation extremes in warmer climates with enhanced boundary forcings. To compare the response of precipitation extremes in models with parametrized and explicitly resolved convection to changing boundary forcings, we select the July 2012 precipitation extreme near the Black Sea town of Krymsk as a recent showcase example. The event was related to a slow moving low pressure system crossing the eastern Black Sea, advecting warm and moist air towards the coast. Two waves of convection resulted in precipitation totals that dwarfed all previous events in the instrumental record, dating back to the 1930s, and over 170 deaths. We carry out ensemble sensitivity experiments with a triply nested configuration of the WRF regional model, for a domain covering the eastern Black Sea. The event is simulated at 15 km, 3 km and 600 m resolution. The model's ability to reproduce the event with observed forcings is first verified, before a series of additional ensembles with altered boundary forcings, in our case sea surface temperature (SST), is created. These ensembles consist of subtracting (adding) the 1982 - 2012 trend in Black Sea SST from (to) the observed 2012 SST field in 20% increments, giving a total of 11 ensembles whose SST differ from the observed field by between -100% and +100% of the warming trend. Aggregating all data to the 15 km grid, we compare the responses of hourly precipitation maxima to incrementally

  20. Estimation of Extreme Sea Levels for the Russian Coasts of the Kuril Islands and the Sea of Okhotsk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shevchenko, Georgy; Ivelskaya, Tatiana

    2015-12-01

    Extreme sea levels arising from the combination of tides, storm surges, seasonal oscillations and tsunamis were estimated by the joint probability method for the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk and the Pacific coast of the Kuril Islands. The sea-level observations at 10 coastal tide gauges were examined. The tidal heights at most stations are about 1.5-2 m, and only at Magadan are they much larger (about 5 m). Storm surges have the largest heights for the central Kuril Islands (Matua and Iturup islands), while at the North and South Kuril Islands the surge heights are the smallest. The recurrence of tsunami heights of various probabilities was estimated for each station. The influence of tides and storm surges on the tsunami risk assessment for the Pacific coast of the Kurile Islands was found to be relatively small. For the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk, the contribution of tides and surges is the primary influence, especially for return periods less than 100 years. For longer return periods, tsunamis play the major role in forming the extreme levels (similar to the Russian coast of the Sea of Japan, e.g., R abinovich et al. 1992).

  1. Vegetation response to extreme climate events on the Mongolian plateau from 2000-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    John, R.; Chen, J.; Ouyang, Z.; Batkishig, O.; Samanta, A.; Ganguly, S.; Yuan, W.; Xiao, J.

    2012-12-01

    Extreme climatic events on the Mongolian Plateau have lead to severe summer droughts as well as extreme winters in the last decade. We ask the question: What are the vegetation responses to these extremes over time and space and time compared to decadal means on the plateau and are there any significant differences between the biomes? We focused on the effects of drought in the plateau through the mapping of anomalies in MODIS -derived vegetation indices (EVI, EVI2), Land surface temperature (LST), and functional variables (GPP, ET) during the last decade (2000-2010). Frequency distributions of standardized anomalies of EVI during 2000-2010 showed that the number of the positively skewed years were more common in the desert biome as compared to grasslands and forests. Positively skewed drought years (severe droughts in 2000-2001, 2005, 2009) were characterized by the majority of negative anomalies with peak values between -1.5 and -0.5 and were statistically different (p<0.001) from relatively wet years (2003, 2004, 2007). Conversely, frequency distributions of dry years were not statistically different (p< 0.001) from relatively wet years in the grassland biome. Temperature and precipitation inter-annual (1961-2010) linear trends interpolated from 67 climate stations correlated well the MODIS-derived standardized anomalies. In addition, comparisons between biome response in the form of EVI, ET, GPP anomalies and temperature/precipitation linear trends were analyzed using cross correlation functions. Finally, we made efforts in explaining these anomalies with changes in albedo and increasing land use intensity at aimag/prefecture administration level in Mongolia and in Inner Mongolia.

  2. Influence of turbulence, orientation, and site configuration on the response of buildings to extreme wind.

    PubMed

    Aly, Aly Mousaad

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric turbulence results from the vertical movement of air, together with flow disturbances around surface obstacles which make low- and moderate-level winds extremely irregular. Recent advancements in wind engineering have led to the construction of new facilities for testing residential homes at relatively high Reynolds numbers. However, the generation of a fully developed turbulence in these facilities is challenging. The author proposed techniques for the testing of residential buildings and architectural features in flows that lack fully developed turbulence. While these methods are effective for small structures, the extension of the approach for large and flexible structures is not possible yet. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of turbulence in the response of tall buildings to extreme winds. In addition, the paper presents a detailed analysis to investigate the influence of upstream terrain conditions, wind direction angle (orientation), and the interference effect from the surrounding on the response of high-rise buildings. The methodology presented can be followed to help decision makers to choose among innovative solutions like aerodynamic mitigation, structural member size adjustment, and/or damping enhancement, with an objective to improve the resiliency and the serviceability of buildings.

  3. Influence of Turbulence, Orientation, and Site Configuration on the Response of Buildings to Extreme Wind

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric turbulence results from the vertical movement of air, together with flow disturbances around surface obstacles which make low- and moderate-level winds extremely irregular. Recent advancements in wind engineering have led to the construction of new facilities for testing residential homes at relatively high Reynolds numbers. However, the generation of a fully developed turbulence in these facilities is challenging. The author proposed techniques for the testing of residential buildings and architectural features in flows that lack fully developed turbulence. While these methods are effective for small structures, the extension of the approach for large and flexible structures is not possible yet. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of turbulence in the response of tall buildings to extreme winds. In addition, the paper presents a detailed analysis to investigate the influence of upstream terrain conditions, wind direction angle (orientation), and the interference effect from the surrounding on the response of high-rise buildings. The methodology presented can be followed to help decision makers to choose among innovative solutions like aerodynamic mitigation, structural member size adjustment, and/or damping enhancement, with an objective to improve the resiliency and the serviceability of buildings. PMID:24701140

  4. PART I: Theoretical Site Response Estimation for Microzoning Purposes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Triantafyllidis, P.; Suhadolc, P.; Hatzidimitriou, P. M.; Anastasiadis, A.; Theodulidis, N.

    We estimate the theoretical site response along seven cross sections located in the city of Thessaloniki (Greece). For this purpose the 2-D structural models used are based on the known geometry and the dynamic soil properties derived from borehole measurements and other geophysical techniques. Several double-couple sources have been employed to generate the seismic wavefield, and a hybrid method that combines the modal summation with finite differences, has been deployed to produce synthetic accelerograms to a maximum frequency of 6 Hz for all components of motion. The ratios between the response spectra of signals derived for the 2-D local model and the corresponding spectra of signals derived for the 1-D bedrock reference model at the same site, allow us to estimate the site response due to lateral heterogeneities. We interpret the results in terms of both geological and geometrical features of the models and of the characteristics of the wave propagation. The cases discussed confirm that the geometry and depth of the rock basement, along with the impedance contrast, are responsible for ground amplification phenomena such as edge effects and generation and entrapment of local surface waves. Our analysis also confirms that the peak ground acceleration is not well correlated with damage and that a substantially better estimator for possible damage is the spectral amplification.

  5. A Bayesian Semiparametric Model for Radiation Dose-Response Estimation.

    PubMed

    Furukawa, Kyoji; Misumi, Munechika; Cologne, John B; Cullings, Harry M

    2016-06-01

    In evaluating the risk of exposure to health hazards, characterizing the dose-response relationship and estimating acceptable exposure levels are the primary goals. In analyses of health risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation, while there is a clear agreement that moderate to high radiation doses cause harmful effects in humans, little has been known about the possible biological effects at low doses, for example, below 0.1 Gy, which is the dose range relevant to most radiation exposures of concern today. A conventional approach to radiation dose-response estimation based on simple parametric forms, such as the linear nonthreshold model, can be misleading in evaluating the risk and, in particular, its uncertainty at low doses. As an alternative approach, we consider a Bayesian semiparametric model that has a connected piece-wise-linear dose-response function with prior distributions having an autoregressive structure among the random slope coefficients defined over closely spaced dose categories. With a simulation study and application to analysis of cancer incidence data among Japanese atomic bomb survivors, we show that this approach can produce smooth and flexible dose-response estimation while reasonably handling the risk uncertainty at low doses and elsewhere. With relatively few assumptions and modeling options to be made by the analyst, the method can be particularly useful in assessing risks associated with low-dose radiation exposures.

  6. Estimation of Sub-daily Extreme Precipitation to Assess Climate Change Impact on Floods of Han River Basin in South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nam, W.; Shin, J.; Um, M.; Kim, W.; Heo, J.

    2011-12-01

    Sub-daily extreme precipitation for a specified duration and return period is used in the estimation of floods for design purposes. Recent researches show that climate change has impact on the precipitation process at different temporal and spatial scales. The present paper is focused on climate change impact on floods of Han River basin in South Korea. Climate change simulation outputs from 5 GCMs under the A2 scenario were used to estimate daily extreme precipitations. Sub-daily extreme precipitations were estimated using the scale-invariance concept. In order to assess sub-daily extreme precipitations from climate change simulation outputs, precipitation time series were generated based on NSRPM (Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse Model) and modified using the ratio of precipitation over projection periods to historical one. Sub-daily extreme precipitations were then estimated from those series. Finally, peak flows were estimated for principal sites of Han River basin using HEC-1 model. It was found that floods in the future displayed increasing or decreasing trends for estimation methods of sub-daily extreme precipitation and different periods.

  7. Combining regional climate and national human development scenarios to estimate future vulnerability to extreme climate and weather events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patt, A.; Nussbaumer, P.

    2009-04-01

    , frequency of disasters in a country, urbanization, and the level of human development (capturing income, life expectancy, and education)—and the numbers of people killed or in need of assistance at the country level. We replicate results from past studies in showing that human development, perhaps surprisingly, shows a strong non-linear relationship with risk (with countries of intermediate levels of development showing the highest risk levels), although we extend these results through the controlling for other variables. Second, we downscale a suite of GCMs using national meteorological data, in order to generate ranges of estimates for changes in the frequency of each of the climate hazards. Supplementing this, we consider a climate scenario that sees a linear extrapolation of current trends in hazard frequency. Third, we construct scenarios for each of the socio-economic vulnerability drivers, consistent with IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios for population and income changes, and UN estimates for other demographic changes. Pulling the three pieces of analysis together, we are able to construct risk scenarios until 2060. Our results are interesting in several respects. They show socio-economic development fully compensating for climate change in the impact on risk levels, within the range of estimated changes suggested by the suite of climate models. Recognizing the limits of models to predicting changed frequency of extreme events, there is also reason to believe that the current trend in increased hazard frequency may continue; for this latter scenario, risk levels rise substantially. Finally, given the observed non-linear relationship between development and risk, we observe in the B1 scenario risk levels at their highest level between 2030 and 2040, and then declining thereafter, as Mozambique passes the point of medium development. In the A2 scenario, by contrast, risk levels rise through mid-century, as development proceeds more slowly.

  8. Estimation of normalized point-source sensitivity of segment surface specifications for extremely large telescopes.

    PubMed

    Seo, Byoung-Joon; Nissly, Carl; Troy, Mitchell; Angeli, George; Bernier, Robert; Stepp, Larry; Williams, Eric

    2013-06-20

    We present a method which estimates the normalized point-source sensitivity (PSSN) of a segmented telescope when only information from a single segment surface is known. The estimation principle is based on a statistical approach with an assumption that all segment surfaces have the same power spectral density (PSD) as the given segment surface. As presented in this paper, the PSSN based on this statistical approach represents a worst-case scenario among statistical random realizations of telescopes when all segment surfaces have the same PSD. Therefore, this method, which we call the vendor table, is expected to be useful for individual segment specification such as the segment polishing specification. The specification based on the vendor table can be directly related to a science metric such as PSSN and provides the mirror vendors significant flexibility by specifying a single overall PSSN value for them to meet. We build a vendor table for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) and test it using multiple mirror samples from various mirror vendors to prove its practical utility. Accordingly, TMT has a plan to adopt this vendor table for its M1 segment final mirror polishing requirement.

  9. Remote estimation of grassland gross primary production during extreme meteorological seasons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossini, Micol; Migliavacca, Mirco; Galvagno, Marta; Meroni, Michele; Cogliati, Sergio; Cremonese, Edoardo; Fava, Francesco; Gitelson, Anatoly; Julitta, Tommaso; Morra di Cella, Umberto; Siniscalco, Consolata; Colombo, Roberto

    2014-06-01

    Different models driven by remotely sensed vegetation indexes (VIs) and incident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) were developed to estimate gross primary production (GPP) in a subalpine grassland equipped with an eddy covariance flux tower. Hyperspectral reflectance was collected using an automatic system designed for high temporal frequency acquisitions for three consecutive years, including one (2011) characterized by a strong reduction of the carbon sequestration rate during the vegetative season. Models based on remotely sensed and meteorological data were used to estimate GPP, and a cross-validation approach was used to compare the predictive capabilities of different model formulations. Vegetation indexes designed to be more sensitive to chlorophyll content explained most of the variability in GPP in the ecosystem investigated, characterized by a strong seasonal dynamic. Model performances improved when including also PARpotential defined as the maximal value of incident PAR under clear sky conditions in model formulations. Best performing models are based entirely on remotely sensed data. This finding could contribute to the development of methods for quantifying the temporal variation of GPP also on a broader scale using current and future satellite sensors.

  10. Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the United States: Quantifying the Responses to Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mascioli, N. R.; Fiore, A. M.; Previdi, M. J.; Correa, G. J. P.

    2014-12-01

    Climate model outputs usually have much coarser spatial resolution than is needed by impacts models. Although higher resolution can be achieved using regional climate models for dynamical downscaling, further downscaling is often required. The final resolution gap is often closed with a combination of spatial interpolation and bias correction, which constitutes a form of statistical downscaling. We use this technique to downscale regional climate model data and evaluate its skill in reproducing extreme events. We downscale output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) dataset from its native 50-km spatial resolution to the 4-km resolution of University of Idaho's METDATA gridded surface meterological dataset, which derives from the PRISM and NLDAS-2 observational datasets. We operate on the major variables used in impacts analysis at a daily timescale: daily minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, humidity, pressure, solar radiation, and winds. To interpolate the data, we use the patch recovery method from the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) regridding package. We then bias correct the data using Kernel Density Distribution Mapping (KDDM), which has been shown to exhibit superior overall performance across multiple metrics. Finally, we evaluate the skill of this technique in reproducing extreme events by comparing raw and downscaled output with meterological station data in different bioclimatic regions according to the the skill scores defined by Perkins et al in 2013 for evaluation of AR4 climate models. We also investigate techniques for improving bias correction of values in the tails of the distributions. These techniques include binned kernel density estimation, logspline kernel density estimation, and transfer functions constructed by fitting the tails with a generalized pareto distribution.

  11. Characterization, parameter estimation, and aircraft response statistics of atmospheric turbulence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mark, W. D.

    1981-01-01

    A nonGaussian three component model of atmospheric turbulence is postulated that accounts for readily observable features of turbulence velocity records, their autocorrelation functions, and their spectra. Methods for computing probability density functions and mean exceedance rates of a generic aircraft response variable are developed using nonGaussian turbulence characterizations readily extracted from velocity recordings. A maximum likelihood method is developed for optimal estimation of the integral scale and intensity of records possessing von Karman transverse of longitudinal spectra. Formulas for the variances of such parameter estimates are developed. The maximum likelihood and least-square approaches are combined to yield a method for estimating the autocorrelation function parameters of a two component model for turbulence.

  12. Future change of extreme temperature climate indices over East Asia with uncertainties estimation in the CMIP5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, Ye-Won; Kim, Hojin; Yun, Kyung-Sook; Lee, June-Yi; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Moon, Ja-Yeon

    2014-11-01

    How well the climate models simulate extreme temperature over East Asia and how the extreme indices would change under anthropogenic global warming are investigated. The indices studied include hot days (HD), tropical nights (TN), growing degree days (GDD), and cooling degree days (CDD) in summer and heating degree days (HDD) and frost days (FD) in winter. The representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) experiments for the period of 2075-2099 are compared with historical simulations for the period of 1979-2005 from 15 coupled models that are participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To optimally estimate future change and its uncertainty, groups of best models are selected based on Taylor diagrams, relative entropy, and probability density function (PDF) methods previously suggested. Overall, the best models' multi-model ensemble based on Taylor diagrams has the lowest errors in reproducing temperature extremes in the present climate among three methods. Selected best models in three methods tend to project considerably different changes in the extreme indices from each other, indicating that the selection of reliable models are of critical importance to reduce uncertainties. Three groups of best models show significant increase of summerbased indices but decrease of the winter-based indices. Over East Asia, the most significant increase is seen in the HD (336 ± 23.4% of current climate) and the most significant decrease is appeared in the HDD (82 ± 4.2%). It is suggested that the larger future change in the HD is found over in the Southeastern China region, probably due to a higher local maximum temperature in the present climate. All of the indices show the largest uncertainty over Southeastern China, particularly in the TN (~3.9 times as large as uncertainty over East Asia) and in the HD (~2.4). It is further noted that the TN reveals the largest uncertainty over three East Asian countries (~1.7 and 1.4 over Korea and

  13. Temporal Treatment of a Thermal Response for Defect Depth Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Plotnikov, Y. A.; Winfree, W. P.

    2004-01-01

    Transient thermography, which employs pulse surface heating of an inspected component followed by acquisition of the thermal decay stage, is gaining wider acceptance as a result of its remoteness and rapidness. Flaws in the component s material may induce a thermal contrast in surface thermograms. An important issue in transient thermography is estimating the depth of a subsurface flaw from the thermal response. This improves the quantitative ability of the thermal evaluation: from one scan it is possible to locate regions of anomalies in thickness (caused by corrosion) and estimate the implications of the flaw on the integrity of the structure. Our research focuses on thick composite aircraft components. A long square heating pulse and several minutes observation period are required to receive an adequate thermal response from such a component. Application of various time-related informative parameters of the thermal response for depth estimation is discussed. A three-dimensional finite difference model of heat propagation in solids in Cartesian coordinates is used to simulate the thermographic process. Typical physical properties of polymer graphite composites are assumed for the model.

  14. Aircraft Fault Detection Using Real-Time Frequency Response Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grauer, Jared A.

    2016-01-01

    A real-time method for estimating time-varying aircraft frequency responses from input and output measurements was demonstrated. The Bat-4 subscale airplane was used with NASA Langley Research Center's AirSTAR unmanned aerial flight test facility to conduct flight tests and collect data for dynamic modeling. Orthogonal phase-optimized multisine inputs, summed with pilot stick and pedal inputs, were used to excite the responses. The aircraft was tested in its normal configuration and with emulated failures, which included a stuck left ruddervator and an increased command path latency. No prior knowledge of a dynamic model was used or available for the estimation. The longitudinal short period dynamics were investigated in this work. Time-varying frequency responses and stability margins were tracked well using a 20 second sliding window of data, as compared to a post-flight analysis using output error parameter estimation and a low-order equivalent system model. This method could be used in a real-time fault detection system, or for other applications of dynamic modeling such as real-time verification of stability margins during envelope expansion tests.

  15. Maximum likelihood estimation for cytogenetic dose-response curves

    SciTech Connect

    Frome, E.L.; DuFrain, R.J.

    1986-03-01

    In vitro dose-response curves are used to describe the relation between chromosome aberrations and radiation dose for human lymphocytes. The lymphocytes are exposed to low-LET radiation, and the resulting dicentric chromosome aberrations follow the Poisson distribution. The expected yield depends on both the magnitude and the temporal distribution of the dose. A general dose-response model that describes this relation has been presented by Kellerer and Rossi (1972, Current Topics on Radiation Research Quarterly 8, 85-158; 1978, Radiation Research 75, 471-488) using the theory of dual radiation action. Two special cases of practical interest are split-dose and continuous exposure experiments, and the resulting dose-time-response models are intrinsically nonlinear in the parameters. A general-purpose maximum likelihood estimation procedure is described, and estimation for the nonlinear models is illustrated with numerical examples from both experimental designs. Poisson regression analysis is used for estimation, hypothesis testing, and regression diagnostics. Results are discussed in the context of exposure assessment procedures for both acute and chronic human radiation exposure.

  16. Different atmospheric moisture divergence responses to extreme and moderate El Niños

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Guangzhi; Osborn, Timothy J.; Matthews, Adrian J.; Joshi, Manoj M.

    2016-07-01

    On seasonal and inter-annual time scales, vertically integrated moisture divergence provides a useful measure of the tropical atmospheric hydrological cycle. It reflects the combined dynamical and thermodynamical effects, and is not subject to the limitations that afflict observations of evaporation minus precipitation. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the tropical Pacific moisture divergence fields calculated from the ERA-Interim reanalysis reveals the dominant effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual time scales. Two EOFs are necessary to capture the ENSO signature, and regression relationships between their Principal Components and indices of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) demonstrate that the transition from strong La Niña through to extreme El Niño events is not a linear one. The largest deviation from linearity is for the strongest El Niños, and we interpret that this arises at least partly because the EOF analysis cannot easily separate different patterns of responses that are not orthogonal to each other. To overcome the orthogonality constraints, a self-organizing map (SOM) analysis of the same moisture divergence fields was performed. The SOM analysis captures the range of responses to ENSO, including the distinction between the moderate and strong El Niños identified by the EOF analysis. The work demonstrates the potential for the application of SOM to large scale climatic analysis, by virtue of its easier interpretation, relaxation of orthogonality constraints and its versatility for serving as an alternative classification method. Both the EOF and SOM analyses suggest a classification of "moderate" and "extreme" El Niños by their differences in the magnitudes of the hydrological cycle responses, spatial patterns and evolutionary paths. Classification from the moisture divergence point of view shows consistency with results based on other physical variables such as SST.

  17. Estimating statistics of European wet and dry spells and associated precipitation extremes - interannual variability and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zolina, O.; Simmer, C.; Belyaev, K.; Gulev, S.; Koltermann, K. P.

    2013-12-01

    Probability distributions of the durations of wet and dry spells were modeled by applying truncated geometric distribution. It has been also extended to the fractional truncated geometric distribution which allows for the discrimination between the roles of a changing number of wet days and of a regrouping of wet and dry days in forming synoptic structure of precipitation. Analyses were performed using 2 collections of daily rain gauge data namely ECA (about 1000 stations) and regional German DWD network (more than 6000 stations) for the period from 1950 to 2009. Wet spells exhibit a statistically significant lengthening over northern Europe and central European Russia, which is especially pronounced in winter when the mean duration of wet periods increased by 15%-20%. In summer wet spells become shorter over Scandinavia and northern Russia. The duration of dry spells decreases over Scandinavia and southern Europe in both winter and summer. Climate tendencies in extreme wet and dry spell durations may not necessarily follow those in mean characteristics. The changing numbers of wet days cannot explain the long-term variability in the duration of wet and dry periods. The observed changes are mainly due to the regrouping of wet and dry days. The tendencies in duration of wet and dry spells have been analyzed for a number of European areas. Over the Netherlands both wet and dry periods are extended in length during the cold and the warm season. A simultaneous shortening of wet and dry periods is found in southern Scandinavia in summer. Over France and central southern Europe during both winter and summer and over the Scandinavian Atlantic coast in summer, opposite tendencies in the duration of wet and dry spells were identified. Growing durations of wet spells are associated with more intense precipitation events while precipitation during shorter wet spells become weaker. Both analyses of relatively coarse resolution ECA data and high resolution DWD station network

  18. Transcriptional responses of the black-chinned tilapia Sarotherodon melanotheron to salinity extremes.

    PubMed

    Tine, Mbaye; de Lorgeril, Julien; D'Cotta, Hélèna; Pepey, Elodie; Bonhomme, François; Baroiller, Jean François; Durand, Jean-Dominique

    2008-06-01

    Sarotherodon melanotheron is one of the most euryhaline teleosts able to withstand variations in environmental salinity ranging from freshwater (FW) to 130‰ hyper-saline waters (HSW). Although significant progress has been made in exploring the cellular and molecular changes that accompany salinity adaptation in teleosts, little is known about the effects of long-term acclimation to HSW. We sought to identify in this tilapia species the genes whose transcription is induced by long-term acclimation either to HSW or FW. Two subtractive cDNA libraries were made from gills of fish acclimated for 45 days to either condition, with 320 partial cDNA sequences encoding proteins potentially involved in the response to the two salinity extremes. The ESTs comparisons with genomic databases allowed putative functions to be attributed to 197 of these genes. The suppression subtractive hybridisation (SSH) results were validated by Real-time PCR for 13 candidate genes having presumably a role in osmoregulation, supplemented by Na(+), K(+)-ATPase α-subunit and carbonic anhydrase, two genes known to be implicated in this function. In fish acclimated to both salinity extremes, the functional category of cellular process was the predominant one, which may indicate high cellular turnover rates in FW and HSW-adapted fish. The acclimation to FW and HSW also appeared to trigger the expression of genes involved in transport activity, biological regulation and metabolic processes, at a higher level in fish acclimated to HSW, suggesting higher metabolic activity in this situation. These results are a first step towards the identification of key molecular processes involved in the fish acclimation to extreme salinities.

  19. Efficient semiparametric mean-association estimation for longitudinal binary responses.

    PubMed

    Chen, Ziqi; Shi, Ning-Zhong; Gao, Wei; Tang, Man-Lai

    2012-06-15

    Semiparametric methods for longitudinal data with association within subjects have recently received considerable attention. However, existing methods for semiparametric longitudinal binary regression modeling (i) mainly concern mean structures with association parameters treated as nuisance; (ii) generally require a correct specification of the covariance structure for misspecified covariance structure may lead to inefficient mean parameter estimates; and (iii) usually run into computation and estimation problems when the time points are irregularly and possibly subject specific. In this article, we propose a semiparametric logistic regression model, which simultaneously takes into account both the mean and response-association structures (via conditional log-odds ratio) for multivariate longitudinal binary outcomes. Our main interest lies in efficient estimation of both the marginal and association parameters. The estimators of the parameters are obtained via the profile kernel approach. We evaluate the proposed methodology through simulation studies and apply it to a real dataset. Both theoretical and empirical results demonstrate that the proposed method yields highly efficient estimators and performs satisfactorily.

  20. Vegetation response to extreme climate events on the Mongolian Plateau from 2000 to 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    John, Ranjeet; Chen, Jiquan; Ou-Yang, Zu-Tao; Xiao, Jingfeng; Becker, Richard; Samanta, Arindam; Ganguly, Sangram; Yuan, Wenping; Batkhishig, Ochirbat

    2013-09-01

    Climate change has led to more frequent extreme winters (aka, dzud) and summer droughts on the Mongolian Plateau during the last decade. Among these events, the 2000-2002 combined summer drought-dzud and 2010 dzud were the most severe on vegetation. We examined the vegetation response to these extremes through the past decade across the Mongolian Plateau as compared to decadal means. We first assessed the severity and extent of drought using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). We then examined the effects of drought by mapping anomalies in vegetation indices (EVI, EVI2) and land surface temperature derived from MODIS and AVHRR for the period of 2000-2010. We found that the standardized anomalies of vegetation indices exhibited positively skewed frequency distributions in dry years, which were more common for the desert biome than for grasslands. For the desert biome, the dry years (2000-2001, 2005 and 2009) were characterized by negative anomalies with peak values between -1.5 and -0.5 and were statistically different (P < 0.001) from relatively wet years (2003, 2004 and 2007). Conversely, the frequency distributions of the dry years were not statistically different (p < 0.001) from those of the relatively wet years for the grassland biome, showing that they were less responsive to drought and more resilient than the desert biome. We found that the desert biome is more vulnerable to drought than the grassland biome. Spatially averaged EVI was strongly correlated with the proportion of land area affected by drought (PDSI <- 1) in Inner Mongolia (IM) and Outer Mongolia (OM), showing that droughts substantially reduced vegetation activity. The correlation was stronger for the desert biome (R2 = 65 and 60, p < 0.05) than for the IM grassland biome (R2 = 53, p < 0.05). Our results showed significant differences in the responses to extreme climatic events (summer drought and dzud) between the

  1. Response of ice caves to weather extremes in the southeastern Alps, Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colucci, R. R.; Fontana, D.; Forte, E.; Potleca, M.; Guglielmin, M.

    2016-05-01

    High altitude karstic environments often preserve permanent ice deposits within caves, representing the lesser-known portion of the cryosphere. Despite being not so widespread and easily reachable as mountain glaciers and ice caps, ice caves preserve much information about past environmental changes and climatic evolution. We selected 1111 ice caves from the existing cave inventory, predominantly but not exclusively located in the periglacial domain where permafrost is not dominant (i.e., with mean annual air temperature < 3 °C but not in a permafrost environment). The influence of climate and topography on ice cave distribution is also investigated. In order to assess the thickness and the inner structure of the deposits, we selected two exemplary ice caves in the Canin massif (Julian Alps) performing several multifrequency GPR surveys. A strong influence of global and local climate change in the evolution of the ice deposits has been particularly highlighted in the dynamic ice cave type, especially in regard to the role of weather extremes. The natural response of ice caves to a warming climate could lead to a fast reduction of such ice masses. The increased occurrence of weather extremes, especially warmer and more intense precipitation caused by higher mean 0 °C-isotherms, could in fact be crucial in the future mass balance evolution of such permanent ice deposits.

  2. Materials and noncoplanar mesh designs for integrated circuits with linear elastic responses to extreme mechanical deformations

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Dae-Hyeong; Song, Jizhou; Choi, Won Mook; Kim, Hoon-Sik; Kim, Rak-Hwan; Liu, Zhuangjian; Huang, Yonggang Y.; Hwang, Keh-Chih; Zhang, Yong-wei; Rogers, John A.

    2008-01-01

    Electronic systems that offer elastic mechanical responses to high-strain deformations are of growing interest because of their ability to enable new biomedical devices and other applications whose requirements are impossible to satisfy with conventional wafer-based technologies or even with those that offer simple bendability. This article introduces materials and mechanical design strategies for classes of electronic circuits that offer extremely high stretchability, enabling them to accommodate even demanding configurations such as corkscrew twists with tight pitch (e.g., 90° in ≈1 cm) and linear stretching to “rubber-band” levels of strain (e.g., up to ≈140%). The use of single crystalline silicon nanomaterials for the semiconductor provides performance in stretchable complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) integrated circuits approaching that of conventional devices with comparable feature sizes formed on silicon wafers. Comprehensive theoretical studies of the mechanics reveal the way in which the structural designs enable these extreme mechanical properties without fracturing the intrinsically brittle active materials or even inducing significant changes in their electrical properties. The results, as demonstrated through electrical measurements of arrays of transistors, CMOS inverters, ring oscillators, and differential amplifiers, suggest a valuable route to high-performance stretchable electronics. PMID:19015528

  3. Method of estimating pulse response using an impedance spectrum

    SciTech Connect

    Morrison, John L; Morrison, William H; Christophersen, Jon P; Motloch, Chester G

    2014-10-21

    Electrochemical Impedance Spectrum data are used to predict pulse performance of an energy storage device. The impedance spectrum may be obtained in-situ. A simulation waveform includes a pulse wave with a period greater than or equal to the lowest frequency used in the impedance measurement. Fourier series coefficients of the pulse train can be obtained. The number of harmonic constituents in the Fourier series are selected so as to appropriately resolve the response, but the maximum frequency should be less than or equal to the highest frequency used in the impedance measurement. Using a current pulse as an example, the Fourier coefficients of the pulse are multiplied by the impedance spectrum at corresponding frequencies to obtain Fourier coefficients of the voltage response to the desired pulse. The Fourier coefficients of the response are then summed and reassembled to obtain the overall time domain estimate of the voltage using the Fourier series analysis.

  4. Estimating least-developed countries’ vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years

    PubMed Central

    Patt, Anthony G.; Tadross, Mark; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Asante, Kwabena; Metzger, Marc; Rafael, Jose; Goujon, Anne; Brundrit, Geoff

    2010-01-01

    When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries’ exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries’ own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation. PMID:20080585

  5. Estimated operator exposure for hand holding portable X-ray units during imaging of the equine distal extremity.

    PubMed

    Tyson, Reid; Smiley, Douglas C; Pleasant, Robert S; Daniel, Gregory B

    2011-01-01

    Hand holding of portable X-ray units is common in large animal ambulatory veterinary practice. Portable X-ray equipment manuals, veterinary teaching institutions, and state regulations discourage, or prohibit, hand holding of portable X-ray units. Our goal was to quantify surface radiation leakage of a typical portable X-ray unit and to measure operator exposure at simulated hand and collar positions during imaging of the equine distal extremity. Each exposure for the study was performed at 80 kVp and 7.5 mAs and repeated 10 times. Measurement of tube radiation leakage was performed along each surface of the portable X-ray unit. To determine the operator exposure more accurately, an equine cadaver limb was used to generate scatter radiation for the following views: lateral carpus, lateral foot, palmaroproximal-palmarodistal, and dorsal 60° proximal-palmarodistal obliques of the navicular region. A Pancake Ion Chamber was placed at the handle and at simulated collar position to record estimated occupational exposure. To estimate the effect of lead shielding, exposure measurements were performed within the primary beam and behind a 0.5 mm lead equivalent apron and within an >0.5 mm lead equivalent glove. The average hand and collar dose was 0.471 and 0.327 mR/exposure, respectively. The lead apron and glove attenuated the primary beam 96.9 and 99.2%, respectively. This reduced average hand and collar exposures to 0.0038 and 0.0101 mR/exposure, respectively. Theoretical occupational limits are reached for the collar (whole body) before the hand (extremity).

  6. Limited information estimation of the diffusion-based item response theory model for responses and response times.

    PubMed

    Ranger, Jochen; Kuhn, Jörg-Tobias; Szardenings, Carsten

    2016-05-01

    Psychological tests are usually analysed with item response models. Recently, some alternative measurement models have been proposed that were derived from cognitive process models developed in experimental psychology. These models consider the responses but also the response times of the test takers. Two such models are the Q-diffusion model and the D-diffusion model. Both models can be calibrated with the diffIRT package of the R statistical environment via marginal maximum likelihood (MML) estimation. In this manuscript, an alternative approach to model calibration is proposed. The approach is based on weighted least squares estimation and parallels the standard estimation approach in structural equation modelling. Estimates are determined by minimizing the discrepancy between the observed and the implied covariance matrix. The estimator is simple to implement, consistent, and asymptotically normally distributed. Least squares estimation also provides a test of model fit by comparing the observed and implied covariance matrix. The estimator and the test of model fit are evaluated in a simulation study. Although parameter recovery is good, the estimator is less efficient than the MML estimator.

  7. Ultramarathon is an outstanding model for the study of adaptive responses to extreme load and stress.

    PubMed

    Millet, Grégoire P; Millet, Guillaume Y

    2012-07-19

    Ultramarathons comprise any sporting event involving running longer than the traditional marathon length of 42.195 km (26.2 miles). Studies on ultramarathon participants can investigate the acute consequences of ultra-endurance exercise on inflammation and cardiovascular or renal consequences, as well as endocrine/energetic aspects, and examine the tissue recovery process over several days of extreme physical load. In a study published in BMC Medicine, Schütz et al. followed 44 ultramarathon runners over 4,487 km from South Italy to North Cape, Norway (the Trans Europe Foot Race 2009) and recorded daily sets of data from magnetic resonance imaging, psychometric, body composition and biological measurements. The findings will allow us to better understand the timecourse of degeneration/regeneration of some lower leg tissues such as knee joint cartilage, to differentiate running-induced from age-induced pathologies (for example, retropatelar arthritis) and finally to assess the interindividual susceptibility to injuries. Moreover, it will also provide new information about the complex interplay between cerebral adaptations/alterations and hormonal influences resulting from endurance exercise and provide data on the dose-response relationship between exercise and brain structure/function. Overall, this study represents a unique attempt to investigate the limits of the adaptive response of human bodies.Please see related article: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/10/78.

  8. Preventive antioxidant responses to extreme oxygen level fluctuation in a subterranean crustacean.

    PubMed

    Lawniczak, M; Romestaing, C; Roussel, D; Maazouzi, C; Renault, D; Hervant, F

    2013-06-01

    The principal aim of this work was to explore the responses of the groundwater crustacean Niphargus rhenorhodanensis to oxidative stress caused by short- and long-term drastic variations in oxygen level. To this end, we investigated thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) levels and anti-oxidative enzyme (SOD and GPx) activities during 24 h anoxia and post-anoxia recovery, and during 10 days of severe hypoxia and post-hypoxia recovery. We observed a decrease in TBARS amounts during recovery from severe hypoxia. Parallel to these results, we observed an overactivation of SOD activity after a 24 h anoxic stress. GPx activity measured at the end of anoxia or severe hypoxia and in the early hours of post-stress recovery also showed an overactivation compared to the control group. We can hypothesize that this overproduction of GPx corresponded to an anticipatory mechanism coping with the overproduction of reactive oxygen species (ROS) during the recovery phase in subterranean animals. This response could be considered as a major asset for life in alternately normoxic and hypoxic conditions, and therefore in extreme biotopes such as groundwaters.

  9. Estimating Hemodynamic Responses to the Wingate Test Using Thoracic Impedance

    PubMed Central

    Astorino, Todd A.; Bovee, Curtis; DeBoe, Ashley

    2015-01-01

    Techniques including direct Fick and Doppler echocardiography are frequently used to assess hemodynamic responses to exercise. Thoracic impedance has been shown to be a noninvasive alternative to these methods for assessing these responses during graded exercise to exhaustion, yet its feasibility during supramaximal bouts of exercise is relatively unknown. We used thoracic impedance to estimate stroke volume (SV) and cardiac output (CO) during the Wingate test (WAnT) and compared these values to those from graded exercise testing (GXT). Active men (n = 9) and women (n = 7) (mean age = 24.8 ± 5.9 yr) completed two Wingate tests and two graded exercise tests on a cycle ergometer. During exercise, heart rate (HR), SV, and CO were continuously estimated using thoracic impedance. Repeated measures analysis of variance was used to identify potential differences in hemodynamic responses across protocols. Results: Maximal SV (138.6 ± 37.4 mL vs. 135.6 ± 26.9 mL) and CO (24.5 ± 6.1 L·min-1 vs. 23.7 ± 5.1 L·min-1) were similar (p > 0.05) between repeated Wingate tests. Mean maximal HR was higher (p < 0.01) for GXT (185 ± 7 b·min-1) versus WAnT (177 ± 11 b·min-1), and mean SV was higher in response to WAnT (137.1 ± 32.1 mL) versus GXT (123.0 ± 32.0 mL), leading to similar maximal cardiac output between WAnT and GXT (23.9 ± 5.6 L·min-1 vs. 22.5 ± 6.0 L·min-1). Our data show no difference in hemodynamic responses in response to repeated administrations of the Wingate test. In addition, the Wingate test elicits similar cardiac output compared to progressive cycling to VO2max. Key points Measurement of cardiac output (CO), the rate of oxygen transport delivered by the heart to skeletal muscle, is not widely-employed in Exercise Physiology due to the level of difficulty and invasiveness characteristic of most techniques used to measure this variable. Nevertheless, thoracic impedance has been shown to provide a noninvasive and simpler approach to continuously

  10. Hydrogeomorphic response to extreme rainfall in headwater systems: Flash floods and debris flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borga, Marco; Stoffel, Markus; Marchi, Lorenzo; Marra, Francesco; Jakob, Matthias

    2014-10-01

    Flash floods and debris flows develop at space and time scales that conventional observation systems for rainfall, streamflow and sediment discharge are not able to monitor. Consequently, the atmospheric, hydrological and geomorphic controls on these hydrogeomorphic processes are poorly understood, leading to highly uncertain warning and risk management. On the other hand, remote sensing of precipitation and numerical weather predictions have become the basis of several flood forecasting systems, enabling increasingly accurate detection of hazardous events. The objective of this paper is to provide a review on current European and international research on early warning systems for flash floods and debris flows. We expand upon these themes by identifying: (a) the state of the art; (b) knowledge gaps; and (c) suggested research directions to advance warning capabilities for extreme hydrogeomorphic processes. We also suggest three areas in which advancements in science will have immediate and important practical consequence, namely development of rainfall estimation and nowcasting schemes suited to the specific space-time scales, consolidating physical, engineering and social datasets of flash floods and debris-flows, integration of methods for multiple hydrogeomorphic hazard warning.

  11. The estimation of scaling exponents for extreme flows in Europe and their dependence on river network structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zanardo, Stefano; Tsaknias, Dimosthenis; Tillmans, Stephan; Nicotina, Ludovico; Assteerawatt, Anongnart; Azemar, Frederic; Hilberts, Arno

    2014-05-01

    The spatial scaling of geophysical fluxes has been often observed in a variety of studies and disciplines. This process characteristic, usually referred to as 'scale invariance', arises from the non-linear interaction of different components of a geophysical system. An outstanding and very popular example of scale invariance in hydrology is represented by the observed power law relationship between discharge and drainage area. A number of studies have focused on the scaling of flow quantiles and, more recently, of extreme flow events with drainage area, reporting the existence of scale invariance in many cases of interest. The importance of these findings lies in the potential improvement and simplification of hydrological predictions, provided that the scaling exponent, α, is correctly estimated. For this reason, several studies have focused on relating α to physical basin characteristics, such as river network structure or climate, in order to provide a predictive framework for its value. However, as we show in this study, the estimation of α bears an intrinsic uncertainty due to the commonly used estimation method as well as the often limited data availability. In order to explore the physical basis of the scaling exponent it is therefore paramount to quantify the effect of the estimation uncertainty, and possibly separate it from the natural variability of α. In this study we use an extensive set of numerical simulations to assess the variability of α under controlled conditions. We then compute a set of event-based α's for 62 European river basins on the basis of data available for approximately 700 stations. We find that for a number of basins, the variability due to estimation uncertainty is significantly smaller than the one obtained from data, suggesting an actual, physical basis of the scaling exponent. Finally, for these basins we test the hypothesis that the river network structure is the first order control on the value of α. To this end we

  12. Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haigh, Ivan D.; Wijeratne, E. M. S.; MacPherson, Leigh R.; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B.; Mason, Matthew S.; Crompton, Ryan P.; George, Steve

    2014-01-01

    The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical

  13. Investigating extreme flood response to Holocene palaeoclimate in the Chinese monsoonal zone: A palaeoflood case study from the Hanjiang River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Yongqiang; Huang, Chun Chang; Pang, Jiangli; Zha, Xiaochun; Zhou, Yali; Wang, Longsheng; Zhang, Yuzhu; Hu, Guiming

    2015-06-01

    Palaeoflood events recorded by slackwater deposits (SWDs) were investigated extensively by sedimentological criteria of palaeohydrology along the upper Hanjiang River valley. Modern flood SWDs were collected for comparison with palaeoflood SWD in the same reaches. Three typical palaeoflood SWDs were observed within Holocene loess-soil blanket on the first river terrace land. The grain size distributions of palaeoflood SWDs are similar to modern flood SWDs, whereas they are different from eolian loess and soil. Palaeoflood SWD lies in three major pedo-stratigraphic boundaries (TS/L0, L0/S0, and S0/Lt) in the Holocene loess-soil profiles. The chronology of three palaeoflood episodes was established by OSL dating and pedo-stratigraphic correlation with the well-dated Holocene loess-soil profiles in the upper Hanjiang River basin. Holocene palaeoflood events were dated to 9500-8500, 3200-2800, and 1800-1700 a B.P., respectively. Palaeoflood discharges were estimated by the palaeoflood model (i.e., slope-area method and step-backwater method). The highest discharges are 51,680-53,950 m3 s- 1 at the 11,500-time scale in the Xunyang reach of the upper Hanjiang River valley. Holocene extraordinary hydroclimatic events in the Hanjiang River often result from abnormal atmospheric circulations from Southwest monsoons in the Chinese monsoonal zone. These results provide a regional expression of extreme flood response to Holocene palaeoclimate to understand the effects of global climatic variations on the river system dynamics.

  14. A comprehensive classification of anomalous circulation patterns responsible for persistent precipitation extremes in South China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Hui; Zhai, Panmao; Chen, Yang

    2016-06-01

    Based on observational precipitation at 63 stations in South China and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data during 1951-2010, a cluster analysis is performed to classify large-scale circulation patterns responsible for persistent precipitation extremes (PPEs) that are independent of the influence of tropical cyclones (TCs). Conceptual schematics depicting configurations among planetary-scale systems at different levels are established for each type. The PPEs free from TCs account for 38.6% of total events, and they tend to occur during April-August and October, with the highest frequency observed in June. Corresponding circulation patterns during June-August can be mainly categorized into two types, i.e., summer-I type and summer-II type. In summer-I type, the South Asian high takes the form of a zonal-belt type. The axis of upstream westerly jets is northwest-oriented. At the middle level, the westerly jets at midlatitudes extend zonally. Along the southern edge of the westerly jet, synoptic eddies steer cold air to penetrate southward; the Bay of Bengal (BOB) trough is located to the north; a shallow trough resides over coastal areas of western South China; and an intensified western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) extends westward. The anomalous moisture is mainly contributed by horizontal advection via southwesterlies around 20 °N and southeasterlies from the southern flange of the WPSH. Moisture convergence maximizes in coastal regions of eastern South China, which is the very place recording extreme precipitation. In summer-II type, the South Asian high behaves as a western-center type. The BOB trough is much deeper, accompanied by a cyclone to its north; and a lower-level trough appears in northwestern parts of South China. Different to summer-I type, moisture transport via southwesterlies is mostly responsible for the anomalous moisture in this type. The moisture convergence zones cover Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan, matching well with the areas of flooding. It is

  15. Ambulance call-outs and response times in Birmingham and the impact of extreme weather and climate change.

    PubMed

    Thornes, John Edward; Fisher, Paul Anthony; Rayment-Bishop, Tracy; Smith, Christopher

    2014-03-01

    Although there has been some research on the impact of extreme weather on the number of ambulance call-out incidents, especially heat waves, there has been very little research on the impact of cold weather on ambulance call-outs and response times. In the UK, there is a target response rate of 75% of life threatening incidents (Category A) that must be responded to within 8 min. This paper compares daily air temperature data with ambulance call-out data for Birmingham over a 5-year period (2007-2011). A significant relationship between extreme weather and increased ambulance call-out and response times can clearly be shown. Both hot and cold weather have a negative impact on response times. During the heat wave of August 2003, the number of ambulance call-outs increased by up to a third. In December 2010 (the coldest December for more than 100 years), the response rate fell below 50% for 3 days in a row (18 December-20 December 2010) with a mean response time of 15 min. For every reduction of air temperature by 1°C there was a reduction of 1.3% in performance. Improved weather forecasting and the take up of adaptation measures, such as the use of winter tyres, are suggested for consideration as management tools to improve ambulance response resilience during extreme weather. Also it is suggested that ambulance response times could be used as part of the syndromic surveillance system at the Health Protection Agency.

  16. Estimating ground-level neutron-flux enhancements in the extreme cosmic-ray events of the next 100, 1000 and 10 000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mason, Paolo

    2015-12-01

    Estimates are proposed of the enhancement in neutron flux which may be experienced at ground level in cosmic-ray events of extreme magnitude over the next century, millennium and ten millennia. The estimates are based on a points-over-threshold analysis of hourly neutron counts measured over the last decades by nine neutron-monitor stations located in Europe, North America and Antarctica. The present results are in good agreement with recent studies of extreme solar events based on the direct observation of flares and the abundance of cosmogenic nuclides in terrestrial and lunar archives.

  17. Controls on coastal dune morphology, shoreline erosion and barrier island response to extreme storms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Houser, C.; Hapke, C.; Hamilton, S.

    2008-01-01

    The response of a barrier island to an extreme storm depends in part on the surge elevation relative to the height and extent of the foredunes which can exhibit considerable variability alongshore. While it is recognized that alongshore variations in dune height and width direct barrier island response to storm surge, the underlying causes of the alongshore variation remain poorly understood. This study examines the alongshore variation in dune morphology along a 11??km stretch of Santa Rosa Island in northwest Florida and relates the variation in morphology to the response of the island during Hurricane Ivan and historic and storm-related rates of shoreline erosion. The morphology of the foredune and backbarrier dunes was characterized before and after Hurricane Ivan using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and related through Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). The height and extent of the foredune, and the presence and relative location of the backbarrier dunes, varied alongshore at discrete length scales (of ~ 750, 1450 and 4550??m) that are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Cospectral analysis suggests that the variation in dune morphology is correlated with transverse ridges on the inner-shelf, the backbarrier cuspate headlands, and the historical and storm-related trends in shoreline change. Sections of the coast with little to no dune development before Hurricane Ivan were observed in the narrowest portions of the island (between headlands), west of the transverse ridges. Overwash penetration tended to be larger in these areas and island breaching was common, leaving the surface close to the watertable and covered by a lag of shell and gravel. In contrast, large foredunes and the backbarrier dunes were observed at the widest sections of the island (the cuspate headlands) and at crest of the transverse ridges. Due to the large dunes and the presence of the backbarrier dunes, these areas experienced less overwash penetration

  18. Three responses of wetland conditions to climatic extremes in the Prairie Pothole Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cressey, Ryann L.; Austin, Jane; Stafford, Joshua D.

    2016-01-01

    Wetlands in central North Dakota were revisited after 50 years to assess changes following extreme drought and a prolonged wet period. We compared data collected during 1961–1966 to current (2013–2014) wetland conditions. We revisited 80 wetlands in 2013 and 2014 across three study areas and measured wetland area, ponded-water depth, and specific conductance. Wetlands at the three study areas responded to prolonged wet conditions in one of three ways. Wetlands at Crystal Springs became larger, and had deeper ponds of lower specific conductance in 2013–14 compared to the 1960s. Wetlands at Cottonwood were larger with deeper ponds of slightly higher specific conductance in 2013–2014. Wetlands at Mt. Moriah had only subtle changes in size, pond depth, and specific conductance between periods. Prolonged wet conditions led to merging of most wetlands (defined as the outer edge of wet-meadow vegetation) at Crystal Springs and a few wetlands at Cottonwood. Low topographic relief at Crystal Springs and Cottonwood contributed to storage of excess water in wetlands with associated responses to prolonged wet conditions. In contrast, higher topographic relief and natural outlets into two intermittent streams at Mt. Moriah resulted in wetlands being less impacted by prolonged wet conditions.

  19. Visualizing the local optical response to extreme-ultraviolet radiation with a resolution of λ/380

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tamasaku, Kenji; Sawada, Kei; Nishibori, Eiji; Ishikawa, Tetsuya

    2011-09-01

    Scientists have continually tried to improve the spatial resolution of imaging ever since the invention of the optical microscope in around 1610 by Galileo. Recently, a spatial resolution near λ/10 was achieved in a near-field scheme by using surface plasmon polaritons. However, further improvement in this direction is hindered by the size of metallic nanostructures. Here we show that atom-scale resolution is achievable in the extreme-ultraviolet region by using X-ray parametric down-conversion, which detaches the achievable resolution from the wavelength of the probe light. We visualize three-dimensionally the local optical response of diamond at wavelengths between 103 and 206Å with a resolution as fine as 0.54Å. This corresponds to a resolution from λ/190 to λ/380, an order of magnitude better than ever achieved. Although the present study focuses on the relatively high-energy optical regions, our method could be extended into the visible region using advanced X-ray sources, and would open a new window into the optical properties of solids.

  20. The Fire-Walker’s High: Affect and Physiological Responses in an Extreme Collective Ritual

    PubMed Central

    Fischer, Ronald; Xygalatas, Dimitris; Mitkidis, Panagiotis; Reddish, Paul; Tok, Penny; Konvalinka, Ivana; Bulbulia, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    How do people feel during extreme collective rituals? Despite longstanding speculation, few studies have attempted to quantify ritual experiences. Using a novel pre/post design, we quantified physiological fluctuations (heart rates) and self-reported affective states from a collective fire-walking ritual in a Mauritian Hindu community. Specifically, we compared changes in levels of happiness, fatigue, and heart rate reactivity among high-ordeal participants (fire-walkers), low-ordeal participants (non-fire-walking participants with familial bonds to fire-walkers) and spectators (unrelated/unknown to the fire-walkers). We observed that fire-walkers experienced the highest increase in heart rate and reported greater happiness post-ritual compared to low-ordeal participants and spectators. Low-ordeal participants reported increased fatigue after the ritual compared to both fire-walkers and spectators, suggesting empathetic identification effects. Thus, witnessing the ritualistic suffering of loved ones may be more exhausting than experiencing suffering oneself. The findings demonstrate that the level of ritual involvement is important for shaping affective responses to collective rituals. Enduring a ritual ordeal is associated with greater happiness, whereas observing a loved-one endure a ritual ordeal is associated with greater fatigue post-ritual. PMID:24586315

  1. Response identification in the extremely low frequency region of an electret condenser microphone.

    PubMed

    Jeng, Yih-Nen; Yang, Tzung-Ming; Lee, Shang-Yin

    2011-01-01

    This study shows that a small electret condenser microphone connected to a notebook or a personal computer (PC) has a prominent response in the extremely low frequency region in a specific environment. It confines most acoustic waves within a tiny air cell as follows. The air cell is constructed by drilling a small hole in a digital versatile disk (DVD) plate. A small speaker and an electret condenser microphone are attached to the two sides of the hole. Thus, the acoustic energy emitted by the speaker and reaching the microphone is strong enough to actuate the diaphragm of the latter. The experiments showed that, once small air leakages are allowed on the margin of the speaker, the microphone captured the signal in the range of 0.5 to 20 Hz. Moreover, by removing the plastic cover of the microphone and attaching the microphone head to the vibration surface, the low frequency signal can be effectively captured too. Two examples are included to show the convenience of applying the microphone to pick up the low frequency vibration information of practical systems.

  2. Response Identification in the Extremely Low Frequency Region of an Electret Condenser Microphone

    PubMed Central

    Jeng, Yih-Nen; Yang, Tzung-Ming; Lee, Shang-Yin

    2011-01-01

    This study shows that a small electret condenser microphone connected to a notebook or a personal computer (PC) has a prominent response in the extremely low frequency region in a specific environment. It confines most acoustic waves within a tiny air cell as follows. The air cell is constructed by drilling a small hole in a digital versatile disk (DVD) plate. A small speaker and an electret condenser microphone are attached to the two sides of the hole. Thus, the acoustic energy emitted by the speaker and reaching the microphone is strong enough to actuate the diaphragm of the latter. The experiments showed that, once small air leakages are allowed on the margin of the speaker, the microphone captured the signal in the range of 0.5 to 20 Hz. Moreover, by removing the plastic cover of the microphone and attaching the microphone head to the vibration surface, the low frequency signal can be effectively captured too. Two examples are included to show the convenience of applying the microphone to pick up the low frequency vibration information of practical systems. PMID:22346594

  3. Short-term cropland responses to temperature extreme events during late winter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.

    2013-08-01

    In recent years, several studies have focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to extreme events. Most of this research has been conducted in natural ecosystems, but few have considered agroecosystems. In this study, we investigated the impact of a manipulated warmer or cooler late winter/early spring on the carbon budget and final harvest of a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.). Soil temperature was altered by manipulating soil albedo by covering the soil surface with a layer of inert silica gravel. We tested three treatments - cooling (Co), warming (W), mix (M) - and control (C). An automated system continuously measured soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil temperature profiles, and soil water content across the entire year in each plot. Phenological phases were periodically assessed and final harvest was measured in each plot. Results showed that treatments had only a transient effect on daily Rh rates, which did not result in a total annual carbon budget significantly different from control, even though cooling showed a significant reduction in final harvest. We also observed anticipation in emergence in both W and M treatments and a delay in emergence for Co. Moreover, plant density and growth increased in W and M and decreased in Co. In conclusion, from the results of our experiment we can assert that an increase in the frequency of both heat and cold waves is unlikely to have large effects on the overall annual carbon balance of irrigated croplands.

  4. Short-term cropland responses to temperature extreme events during late winter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, several studies have focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to extreme events. Most of this research has been conducted in natural ecosystems, but few have considered agro-ecosystems. In this study, we investigated the impact of a manipulated warmer or cooler late winter-early spring on the carbon budget and final harvest of a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.). Soil temperature was altered by manipulating soil albedo by covering the soil surface with a layer of inert silica gravel. We tested three treatments: cooling (Co), warming (W), mix (M) and control (C). An automated system continuously measured soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil temperature profiles, and soil water content across the entire year in each plot. Phenological phases were periodically assessed and final harvest was measured in each plot. Results showed that treatments had only a transient effect on daily Rh rates which did not result in a total annual carbon budget significantly different from control, even though cooling showed a significant reduction in final harvest. We also observed anticipation in seed germination in both W and M treatments and a delay in germination for Co. Moreover, plant density and growth increased in W and M and decreased in Co.

  5. The fire-walker's high: affect and physiological responses in an extreme collective ritual.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Ronald; Xygalatas, Dimitris; Mitkidis, Panagiotis; Reddish, Paul; Tok, Penny; Konvalinka, Ivana; Bulbulia, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    How do people feel during extreme collective rituals? Despite longstanding speculation, few studies have attempted to quantify ritual experiences. Using a novel pre/post design, we quantified physiological fluctuations (heart rates) and self-reported affective states from a collective fire-walking ritual in a Mauritian Hindu community. Specifically, we compared changes in levels of happiness, fatigue, and heart rate reactivity among high-ordeal participants (fire-walkers), low-ordeal participants (non-fire-walking participants with familial bonds to fire-walkers) and spectators (unrelated/unknown to the fire-walkers). We observed that fire-walkers experienced the highest increase in heart rate and reported greater happiness post-ritual compared to low-ordeal participants and spectators. Low-ordeal participants reported increased fatigue after the ritual compared to both fire-walkers and spectators, suggesting empathetic identification effects. Thus, witnessing the ritualistic suffering of loved ones may be more exhausting than experiencing suffering oneself. The findings demonstrate that the level of ritual involvement is important for shaping affective responses to collective rituals. Enduring a ritual ordeal is associated with greater happiness, whereas observing a loved-one endure a ritual ordeal is associated with greater fatigue post-ritual.

  6. Oscillation Responses to an Extreme Weather Event from a Deep Moored Observing System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Z.; Dimarco, S. F.; Stoessel, M. M.; Zhang, X.; Ingle, S.

    2011-12-01

    In June 2007 tropical Cyclone Gonu passed directly over an ocean observing system consisting of four, deep autonomous mooring stations along the 3000 m isobath in the northern Arabian Sea. Gonu was the largest cyclone known to have occurred in the Arabian Sea or to strike the Arabian Peninsula. The mooring system was designed by Lighthouse R & D Enterprises, Inc. and installed in cooperation with the Oman Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries Wealth. The instruments on the moorings continuously recorded water velocities, temperature, conductivity, pressure, dissolved oxygen and turbidity at multiple depths and at hourly intervals during the storm. Near-inertial oscillations at all moorings from thermocline to seafloor are coincident with the arrival of Gonu. Sub-inertial oscillations with periods of 2-10 days are recorded at the post-storm relaxation stage of Gonu, primarily in the thermocline. These oscillations consist of warm, saline water masses, likely originating from the Persian Gulf. Prominent 12.7-day sub-inertial waves, measured at a station ~300 km offshore, are bottom-intensified and have characteristics of baroclinic, topographically-trapped waves. Theoretical results from a topographically-trapped wave model are in a good agreement with the observed 12.7-day waves. The wavelength of the 12.7-day waves is about 590 km calculated from the dispersion relationship. Further analysis suggests that a resonant standing wave is responsible for trapping the 12.7-day wave energy inside the Sea of Oman basin. The observational results reported here are the first measurements of deepwater responses to a tropical cyclone in the Sea of Oman/Arabian Sea. Our study demonstrates the utility of sustained monitoring for studying the impact of extreme weather events on the ocean.

  7. The Mediterranean Benthic Herbivores Show Diverse Responses to Extreme Storm Disturbances

    PubMed Central

    Pagès, Jordi F.; Gera, Alessandro; Romero, Javier; Farina, Simone; Garcia-Rubies, Antoni; Hereu, Bernat; Alcoverro, Teresa

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophic storms have been observed to be one of the major elements in shaping the standing structure of marine benthic ecosystems. Yet, little is known about the effect of catastrophic storms on ecosystem processes. Specifically, herbivory is the main control mechanism of macrophyte communities in the Mediterranean, with two main key herbivores: the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus and the fish Sarpa salpa. Consequently, the effects of extreme storm events on these two herbivores (at the population level and on their behaviour) may be critical for the functioning of the ecosystem. With the aim of filling this gap, we took advantage of two parallel studies that were conducted before, during and after an unexpected catastrophic storm event. Specifically, fish and sea urchin abundance were assessed before and after the storm in monitored fixed areas (one site for sea urchin assessment and 3 sites for fish visual transects). Additionally, we investigated the behavioural response to the disturbance of S. salpa fishes that had been tagged with acoustic transmitters. Given their low mobility, sea urchins were severely affected by the storm (ca. 50% losses) with higher losses in those patches with a higher density of sea urchins. This may be due to a limited availability of refuges within each patch. In contrast, fish abundance was not affected, as fish were able to move to protected areas (i.e. deeper) as a result of the high mobility of this species. Our results highlight that catastrophic storms differentially affect the two dominant macroherbivores of rocky macroalgal and seagrass systems due to differences in mobility and escaping strategies. This study emphasises that under catastrophic disturbances, the presence of different responses among the key herbivores of the system may be critical for the maintenance of the herbivory function. PMID:23667512

  8. The Mediterranean benthic herbivores show diverse responses to extreme storm disturbances.

    PubMed

    Pagès, Jordi F; Gera, Alessandro; Romero, Javier; Farina, Simone; Garcia-Rubies, Antoni; Hereu, Bernat; Alcoverro, Teresa

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophic storms have been observed to be one of the major elements in shaping the standing structure of marine benthic ecosystems. Yet, little is known about the effect of catastrophic storms on ecosystem processes. Specifically, herbivory is the main control mechanism of macrophyte communities in the Mediterranean, with two main key herbivores: the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus and the fish Sarpa salpa. Consequently, the effects of extreme storm events on these two herbivores (at the population level and on their behaviour) may be critical for the functioning of the ecosystem. With the aim of filling this gap, we took advantage of two parallel studies that were conducted before, during and after an unexpected catastrophic storm event. Specifically, fish and sea urchin abundance were assessed before and after the storm in monitored fixed areas (one site for sea urchin assessment and 3 sites for fish visual transects). Additionally, we investigated the behavioural response to the disturbance of S. salpa fishes that had been tagged with acoustic transmitters. Given their low mobility, sea urchins were severely affected by the storm (ca. 50% losses) with higher losses in those patches with a higher density of sea urchins. This may be due to a limited availability of refuges within each patch. In contrast, fish abundance was not affected, as fish were able to move to protected areas (i.e. deeper) as a result of the high mobility of this species. Our results highlight that catastrophic storms differentially affect the two dominant macroherbivores of rocky macroalgal and seagrass systems due to differences in mobility and escaping strategies. This study emphasises that under catastrophic disturbances, the presence of different responses among the key herbivores of the system may be critical for the maintenance of the herbivory function.

  9. Estimation of road profile variability from measured vehicle responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fauriat, W.; Mattrand, C.; Gayton, N.; Beakou, A.; Cembrzynski, T.

    2016-05-01

    When assessing the statistical variability of fatigue loads acting throughout the life of a vehicle, the question of the variability of road roughness naturally arises, as both quantities are strongly related. For car manufacturers, gathering information on the environment in which vehicles evolve is a long and costly but necessary process to adapt their products to durability requirements. In the present paper, a data processing algorithm is proposed in order to estimate the road profiles covered by a given vehicle, from the dynamic responses measured on this vehicle. The algorithm based on Kalman filtering theory aims at solving a so-called inverse problem, in a stochastic framework. It is validated using experimental data obtained from simulations and real measurements. The proposed method is subsequently applied to extract valuable statistical information on road roughness from an existing load characterisation campaign carried out by Renault within one of its markets.

  10. Soliciting Feedback from Resource Managers to Inform Response to Extreme Event Impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bedsworth, L. W.

    2014-12-01

    To date, extreme events have been defined by scientists through a top-down approach, relying on observations for current extremes and climate model projections based on future scenarios for their expected changes. These abstract definitions of extreme events are based on a corresponding characterization of what is "normal" and perhaps the choice of a threshold (e.g., a percentile of a historical distribution for a given climate variable), beyond which would represent an extreme event. However, there are not necessarily direct connections between these definitions and what is considered "extreme" in terms of impacts that challenge resource management. Several researchers have suggested that extreme event definitions would also be informed by input from on-the-ground resource managers who are familiar with the systems being impacted, the climate conditions that pose risks to those systems, and their resilience and adaptive capacity. This research will present preliminary survey work designed to solicit input from air and water quality managers in terms of what is considered an extreme event, how these events have been weathered in the past, and planned for in the future. The survey is based on literature review, interviews with air and water quality managers in California, and outreach to the scientific community. This work is the first step of a multistage research effort to link input from resource managers with scientific information to better inform air and water quality management and impacts of extreme events under a changing climate.

  11. Deciphering landscape complexity to predict (non)linear responses to extreme climatic events

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Extreme events are increasing in frequency and magnitude for many landscapes globally. Ecologically, most of the focus on extreme climatic events has been on effects of either short-term pulses (floods, freezes) or long-term drought. Multi-year increases in precipitation are also occurring with litt...

  12. Using remotely sensed temperature to estimate climate response functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heft-Neal, Sam; Lobell, David B.; Burke, Marshall

    2017-01-01

    Temperature data are commonly used to estimate the sensitivity of many societally relevant outcomes, including crop yields, mortality, and economic output, to ongoing climate changes. In many tropical regions, however, temperature measures are often very sparse and unreliable, limiting our ability to understand climate change impacts. Here we evaluate satellite measures of near-surface temperature (Ts) as an alternative to traditional air temperatures (Ta) from weather stations, and in particular their ability to replace Ta in econometric estimation of climate response functions. We show that for maize yields in Africa and the United States, and for economic output in the United States, regressions that use Ts produce very similar results to those using Ta, despite the fact that daily correlation between the two temperature measures is often low. Moreover, for regions such as Africa with poor station coverage, we find that models with Ts outperform models with Ta, as measured by both R 2 values and out-of-sample prediction error. The results indicate that Ts can be used to study climate impacts in areas with limited station data, and should enable faster progress in assessing risks and adaptation needs in these regions.

  13. Evaluating environmental joint extremes for the offshore industry using the conditional extremes model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ewans, Kevin; Jonathan, Philip

    2014-02-01

    Understanding extreme ocean environments and their interaction with fixed and floating structures is critical for the design of offshore and coastal facilities. The joint effect of various ocean variables on extreme responses of offshore structures is fundamental in determining the design loads. For example, it is known that mean values of wave periods tend to increase with increasing storm intensity, and a floating system responds in a complex way to both variables. Specification of joint extremes in design criteria has often been somewhat ad hoc, being based on fairly arbitrary combinations of extremes of variables estimated independently. Such approaches are even outlined in design guidelines. Mathematically more consistent estimates of the joint occurrence of extreme environmental variables fall into two camps in the offshore industry - response-based and response-independent. Both are outlined here, with emphasis on response-independent methods, particularly those based on the conditional extremes model recently introduced by (Heffernan and Tawn, 2004), which has a solid theoretical motivation. We illustrate an application of the conditional extremes model to joint estimation of extreme storm peak significant wave height and peak period at a northern North Sea location, incorporating storm direction as a model covariate. We also discuss joint estimation of extreme current profiles with depth off the North West Shelf of Australia. Methods such as the conditional extremes model provide valuable additions to the metocean engineer's toolkit.

  14. Extreme Response Style in Recurrent and Chronically Depressed Patients: Change with Antidepressant Administration and Stability during Continuation Treatment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Timothy J.; Feldman, Greg; Harley, Rebecca; Fresco, David M.; Graves, Lesley; Holmes, Avram; Bogdan, Ryan; Papakostas, George I.; Bohn, Laurie; Lury, R. Alana; Fava, Maurizio; Segal, Zindel V.

    2007-01-01

    The authors examined extreme response style in recurrently and chronically depressed patients, assessing its role in therapeutic outcome. During the acute phase, outpatients with major depressive disorder (N = 384) were treated with fluoxetine for 8 weeks. Remitted patients (n = 132) entered a continuation phase during which their fluoxetine dose…

  15. Response of vegetation NDVI to climatic extremes in the arid region of Central Asia: a case study in Xinjiang, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Junqiang; Chen, Yaning; Zhao, Yong; Mao, Weiyi; Xu, Xinbing; Liu, Yang; Yang, Qing

    2017-02-01

    Observed data showed the climatic transition from warm-dry to warm-wet in Xinjiang during the past 30 years and will probably affect vegetation dynamics. Here, we analyze the interannual change of vegetation index based on the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with temperature and precipitation extreme over the Xinjiang, using the 8-km NDVI third-generation (NDVI3g) from the Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) from 1982 to 2010. Few previous studies analyzed the link between climate extremes and vegetation response. From the satellite-based results, annual NDVI significantly increased in the first two decades (1981-1998) and then decreased after 1998. We show that the NDVI decrease over the past decade may conjointly be triggered by the increases of temperature and precipitation extremes. The correlation analyses demonstrated that the trends of NDVI was close to the trend of extreme precipitation; that is, consecutive dry days (CDD) and torrential rainfall days (R24) positively correlated with NDVI during 1998-2010. For the temperature extreme, while the decreases of NDVI correlate positively with warmer mean minimum temperature (Tnav), it correlates negatively with the number of warmest night days (Rwn). The results suggest that the climatic extremes have possible negative effects on the ecosystem.

  16. Local mapping of detector response for reliable quantum state estimation

    PubMed Central

    Cooper, Merlin; Karpiński, Michał; Smith, Brian J.

    2014-01-01

    Improved measurement techniques are central to technological development and foundational scientific exploration. Quantum physics relies on detectors sensitive to non-classical features of systems, enabling precise tests of physical laws and quantum-enhanced technologies including precision measurement and secure communications. Accurate detector response calibration for quantum-scale inputs is key to future research and development in these cognate areas. To address this requirement, quantum detector tomography has been recently introduced. However, this technique becomes increasingly challenging as the complexity of the detector response and input space grow in a number of measurement outcomes and required probe states, leading to further demands on experiments and data analysis. Here we present an experimental implementation of a versatile, alternative characterization technique to address many-outcome quantum detectors that limits the input calibration region and does not involve numerical post processing. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, the calibrated detector is subsequently used to estimate non-classical photon number states. PMID:25019300

  17. Optimal design for nonlinear estimation of the hemodynamic response function.

    PubMed

    Maus, Bärbel; van Breukelen, Gerard J P; Goebel, Rainer; Berger, Martijn P F

    2012-06-01

    Subject-specific hemodynamic response functions (HRFs) have been recommended to capture variation in the form of the hemodynamic response between subjects (Aguirre et al., [ 1998]: Neuroimage 8:360-369). The purpose of this article is to find optimal designs for estimation of subject-specific parameters for the double gamma HRF. As the double gamma function is a nonlinear function of its parameters, optimal design theory for nonlinear models is employed in this article. The double gamma function is linearized by a Taylor approximation and the maximin criterion is used to handle dependency of the D-optimal design on the expansion point of the Taylor approximation. A realistic range of double gamma HRF parameters is used for the expansion point of the Taylor approximation. Furthermore, a genetic algorithm (GA) (Kao et al., [ 2009]: Neuroimage 44:849-856) is applied to find locally optimal designs for the different expansion points and the maximin design chosen from the locally optimal designs is compared to maximin designs obtained by m-sequences, blocked designs, designs with constant interstimulus interval (ISI) and random event-related designs. The maximin design obtained by the GA is most efficient. Random event-related designs chosen from several generated designs and m-sequences have a high efficiency, while blocked designs and designs with a constant ISI have a low efficiency compared to the maximin GA design.

  18. Trends in persistent seasonal-scale atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for precipitation and temperature extremes in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swain, D. L.; Horton, D. E.; Singh, D.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2015-12-01

    Long-lived anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns are often associated with surface weather extremes. This is particularly true from a hydroclimatic perspective in regions that have well-defined "wet seasons," where atmospheric anomalies that persist on a seasonal scale can lead to drought or (conversely) increase the risk of flood. Recent evidence suggests that both natural variability and global warming may be responsible for spatially and temporally heterogeneous changes in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric conditions over the past several decades. In this investigation, we assess observed trends in cool-season (Oct-May) circulation patterns over the northeastern Pacific Ocean which have historically been associated with precipitation and temperature extremes in California. We find that the occurrence of certain extreme seasonal-scale atmospheric configurations has changed substantially over the 1948-2015 period, and also that there has been a trend towards amplification of the cool-season mean state in this region. Notably, patterns similar to the persistent anticyclone associated with the extremely warm and dry conditions experienced during the ongoing 2012-2015 California drought occur more frequently in the second half of the observed record. This finding highlights the importance of examining changes in extreme and/or persistent atmospheric circulation configurations, which may exhibit different responses to natural and anthropogenic forcings than the mean state.

  19. Lysosomal responses to heat-shock of seasonal temperature extremes in Cd-exposed mussels.

    PubMed

    Múgica, M; Izagirre, U; Marigómez, I

    2015-07-01

    The present study was aimed at determining the effect of temperature extremes on lysosomal biomarkers in mussels exposed to a model toxic pollutant (Cd) at different seasons. For this purpose, temperature was elevated 10°C (from 12°C to 22°C in winter and from 18°C to 28°C in summer) for a period of 6h (heat-shock) in control and Cd-exposed mussels, and then returned back to initial one. Lysosomal membrane stability and lysosomal structural changes in digestive gland were investigated. In winter, heat-shock reduced the labilisation period (LP) of the lysosomal membrane, especially in Cd-exposed mussels, and provoked transient lysosomal enlargement. LP values recovered after the heat-shock cessation but lysosomal enlargement prevailed in both experimental groups. In summer, heat-shock induced remarkable reduction in LP and lysosomal enlargement (more markedly in Cd-exposed mussels), which recovered within 3 days. Besides, whilst heat-shock effects on LP were practically identical for Cd-exposed mussels in winter and summer, the effects were longer-lasting in summer than in winter for control mussels. Thus, lysosomal responsiveness after heat-shock was higher in summer than in winter but recovery was faster as well, and therefore the consequences of the heat shock seem to be more decisive in winter. In contrast, inter-season differences were attenuated in the presence of Cd. Consequently, mussels seem to be better prepared in summer than in winter to stand short periods of abrupt temperature change; this is, however, compromised when mussels are exposed to pollutants such as Cd.

  20. Forest tree responses to extreme drought and some biotic events: Towards a selection according to hazard tolerance?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bréda, Nathalie; Badeau, Vincent

    2008-09-01

    The aim of this paper is to illustrate how some extreme events could affect forest ecosystems. Forest tree response can be analysed using dendroecological methods, as tree-ring widths are strongly controlled by climatic or biotic events. Years with such events induce similar tree responses and are called pointer years. They can result from extreme climatic events like frost, a heat wave, spring water logging, drought or insect damage… Forest tree species showed contrasting responses to climatic hazards, depending on their sensitivity to water shortage or temperature hardening, as illustrated from our dendrochronological database. For foresters, a drought or a pest disease is an extreme event if visible and durable symptoms are induced (leaf discolouration, leaf loss, perennial organs mortality, tree dieback and mortality). These symptoms here are shown, lagging one or several years behind a climatic or biotic event, from forest decline cases in progress since the 2003 drought or attributed to previous severe droughts or defoliations in France. Tree growth or vitality recovery is illustrated, and the functional interpretation of the long lasting memory of trees is discussed. A coupled approach linking dendrochronology and ecophysiology helps in discussing vulnerability of forest stands, and suggests management advices in order to mitigate extreme drought and cope with selective mortality.

  1. Estimating Derived Response Levels at the Savannah River Site for Use with Emergency Response Models

    SciTech Connect

    Simpkins, A.A.

    2002-12-06

    Emergency response computer models at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are coupled with real-time meteorological data to estimate dose to individuals downwind of accidental radioactive releases. Currently, these models estimate doses for inhalation and shine pathways, but do not consider dose due to ingestion of contaminated food products. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has developed derived intervention levels (DIL) which refer to the radionuclide-specific concentration in food present throughout the relevant period of time, with no intervention, that could lead to an individual receiving a radiation dose equal to the protective action guide. In the event of an emergency, concentrations in various food types are compared with these levels to make interdictions decisions. Prior to monitoring results being available, concentrations in the environmental media (i.e. soil), called derived response levels (DRLs), can be estimated from the DILs and directly compared with computer output to provide preliminary guidance as to whether intervention is necessary. Site-specific derived response levels (DRLs) are developed for ingestion pathways pertinent to SRS: milk, meat, fish, grain, produce, and beverage. This provides decision-makers with an additional tool for use immediately following an accident prior to the acquisition of food monitoring data.

  2. Efficient Nonparametric Approaches for Estimating the Operating Characteristics of Discrete Item Responses.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Samejima, Fumiko

    1998-01-01

    Introduces and discusses the rationale and procedures of two nonparametric approaches to estimating the operating characteristic of a discrete item response, or the conditional probability, given the latent trait, that the examinee's response be that specific response. (SLD)

  3. Assessing item fit for unidimensional item response theory models using residuals from estimated item response functions.

    PubMed

    Haberman, Shelby J; Sinharay, Sandip; Chon, Kyong Hee

    2013-07-01

    Residual analysis (e.g. Hambleton & Swaminathan, Item response theory: principles and applications, Kluwer Academic, Boston, 1985; Hambleton, Swaminathan, & Rogers, Fundamentals of item response theory, Sage, Newbury Park, 1991) is a popular method to assess fit of item response theory (IRT) models. We suggest a form of residual analysis that may be applied to assess item fit for unidimensional IRT models. The residual analysis consists of a comparison of the maximum-likelihood estimate of the item characteristic curve with an alternative ratio estimate of the item characteristic curve. The large sample distribution of the residual is proved to be standardized normal when the IRT model fits the data. We compare the performance of our suggested residual to the standardized residual of Hambleton et al. (Fundamentals of item response theory, Sage, Newbury Park, 1991) in a detailed simulation study. We then calculate our suggested residuals using data from an operational test. The residuals appear to be useful in assessing the item fit for unidimensional IRT models.

  4. Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming

    SciTech Connect

    Diffenbaugh, Noah; Scherer, Martin; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2012-01-01

    Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the Northern Hemisphere1,2, raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions1,3. Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (for example, refs 1,3 5), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate- change impacts3,6,7. We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the Northern Hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near- termdecadesandat2 Cglobalwarming.Theoccurrenceof extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late twenty-first century, as do the occurrences of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2 C above the pre-industrial baseline.

  5. Materials response under extreme conditions: a path to materials science above 1000 GPa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Remington, Bruce

    2005-07-01

    Solid state experiments at extreme pressures (10-100 GPa) and strain rates (1.e6 -- 1.e8 1/s) are being developed on high-energy laser facilities. [1] A quasi-isentropic, ramped-pressure (shockless) drive is being developed on the Omega laser. [2] Constitutive models for solid-state strength under these conditions are tested with experiments measuring perturbation growth due to the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in solid-state samples. [3] Lattice compression, phase, and temperature are deduced from extended x-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) measurements, from which the shock-induced alpha-omega phase transition in Ti is inferred to occur on sub-nanosec time scales. [4] Time resolved lattice response and phase can be inferred from dynamic x-ray diffraction measurements, where the elastic-plastic (1D-3D) lattice relaxation in shocked Cu is shown to occur promptly (sub-nsec). [5] Large-scale MD simulations have elucidated the microscopic dynamics that underlie the 3D lattice relaxation. [6] Deformation mechanisms, such as the slip-twinning transition in shocked single-crystal Cu, are identified by examining the residual microstructure in recovered samples. [7] Designs will be shown for reaching much higher pressures, (greater than 1000 GPa), in the solid state on the NIF laser. [8] *This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract No. W-7405-ENG-48. [1] B.A. Remington et al., Met. Mat. Trans. 35A, 2587 (2004). [2] J. Edwards et al., PRL 92, 075002 (2004). [3] K.T. Lorenz et al., PoP, in press (May, 2005). [4] B. Yaakobi et al., PRL 92, 095504 (2004). [5] A. Loveridge-Smith et al., PRL 86, 2349 (2001). [6] E.M. Bringa et al., Nature, submitted (March, 2005). [7] M.S. Schneider et al., Met. Mat. Trans. 35A, 2633 (2004). [8] B.A. Remington et al., in press, ApSS 298 (July, 2005).

  6. Neuronal Cellular Responses to Extremely Low Frequency Electromagnetic Field Exposure: Implications Regarding Oxidative Stress and Neurodegeneration

    PubMed Central

    Reale, Marcella; Kamal, Mohammad A.; Patruno, Antonia; Costantini, Erica; D'Angelo, Chiara; Pesce, Miko; Greig, Nigel H.

    2014-01-01

    Neurodegenerative diseases comprise both hereditary and sporadic conditions characterized by an identifying progressive nervous system dysfunction and distinctive neuopathophysiology. The majority are of non-familial etiology and hence environmental factors and lifestyle play key roles in their pathogenesis. The extensive use of and ever increasing worldwide demand for electricity has stimulated societal and scientific interest on the environmental exposure to low frequency electromagnetic fields (EMFs) on human health. Epidemiological studies suggest a positive association between 50/60-Hz power transmission fields and leukemia or lymphoma development. Consequent to the association between EMFs and induction of oxidative stress, concerns relating to development of neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer disease (AD), have been voiced as the brain consumes the greatest fraction of oxygen and is particularly vulnerable to oxidative stress. Exposure to extremely low frequency (ELF)-EMFs are reported to alter animal behavior and modulate biological variables, including gene expression, regulation of cell survival, promotion of cellular differentiation, and changes in cerebral blood flow in aged AD transgenic mice. Alterations in inflammatory responses have also been reported, but how these actions impact human health remains unknown. We hence evaluated the effects of an electromagnetic wave (magnetic field intensity 1mT; frequency, 50-Hz) on a well-characterized immortalized neuronal cell model, human SH-SY5Y cells. ELF-EMF exposure elevated the expession of NOS and O2−, which were countered by compensatory changes in antioxidant catylase (CAT) activity and enzymatic kinetic parameters related to CYP-450 and CAT activity. Actions of ELF-EMFs on cytokine gene expression were additionally evaluated and found rapidly modified. Confronted with co-exposure to H2O2-induced oxidative stress, ELF-EMF proved not as well counteracted and resulted in a decline in CAT

  7. Functional response models to estimate feeding rates of wading birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Collazo, J.A.; Gilliam, J.F.; Miranda-Castro, L.

    2010-01-01

    Forager (predator) abundance may mediate feeding rates in wading birds. Yet, when modeled, feeding rates are typically derived from the purely prey-dependent Holling Type II (HoII) functional response model. Estimates of feeding rates are necessary to evaluate wading bird foraging strategies and their role in food webs; thus, models that incorporate predator dependence warrant consideration. Here, data collected in a mangrove swamp in Puerto Rico in 1994 were reanalyzed, reporting feeding rates for mixed-species flocks after comparing fits of the HoII model, as used in the original work, to the Beddington-DeAngelis (BD) and Crowley-Martin (CM) predator-dependent models. Model CM received most support (AIC c wi = 0.44), but models BD and HoII were plausible alternatives (AIC c ??? 2). Results suggested that feeding rates were constrained by predator abundance. Reductions in rates were attributed to interference, which was consistent with the independently observed increase in aggression as flock size increased (P < 0.05). Substantial discrepancies between the CM and HoII models were possible depending on flock sizes used to model feeding rates. However, inferences derived from the HoII model, as used in the original work, were sound. While Holling's Type II and other purely prey-dependent models have fostered advances in wading bird foraging ecology, evaluating models that incorporate predator dependence could lead to a more adequate description of data and processes of interest. The mechanistic bases used to derive models used here lead to biologically interpretable results and advance understanding of wading bird foraging ecology.

  8. The response of the soil microbial food web to extreme rainfall under different plant systems

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Feng; Pan, Kaiwen; Tariq, Akash; Zhang, Lin; Sun, Xiaoming; Li, Zilong; Wang, Sizhong; Xiong, Qinli; Song, Dagang; Olatunji, Olusanya Abiodun

    2016-01-01

    An agroforestry experiment was conducted that involved four planting systems: monoculture of the focal species Zanthoxylum bungeanum and mixed cultures of Z. bungeanum and Capsicum annuum, Z. bungeanum and Medicago sativa and Z. bungeanum and Glycine max. Soil microbial food web (microorganisms and nematodes) was investigated under manipulated extreme rainfall in the four planting systems to assess whether presence of neighbor species alleviated the magnitude of extreme rainfall on nutrient uptake of the focal species by increasing the stability of soil food web. Our results indicate that in the focal species and G. max mixed culture, leaf nitrogen contents of the focal species were higher than in the monoculture and in the other mixed cultures under extreme rainfall. This result was mainly due to the significant increase under extreme rainfall of G. max species root biomass, resulting in enhanced microbial resistance and subsequent net nitrogen mineralization rate and leaf nitrogen uptake for the focal species. Differences in functional traits of neighbors had additive effects and led to a marked divergence of soil food-web resistance and nutrient uptake of the focal species. Climate change can indirectly alleviate focal species via its influence on their neighbors. PMID:27874081

  9. The response of the soil microbial food web to extreme rainfall under different plant systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Feng; Pan, Kaiwen; Tariq, Akash; Zhang, Lin; Sun, Xiaoming; Li, Zilong; Wang, Sizhong; Xiong, Qinli; Song, Dagang; Olatunji, Olusanya Abiodun

    2016-11-01

    An agroforestry experiment was conducted that involved four planting systems: monoculture of the focal species Zanthoxylum bungeanum and mixed cultures of Z. bungeanum and Capsicum annuum, Z. bungeanum and Medicago sativa and Z. bungeanum and Glycine max. Soil microbial food web (microorganisms and nematodes) was investigated under manipulated extreme rainfall in the four planting systems to assess whether presence of neighbor species alleviated the magnitude of extreme rainfall on nutrient uptake of the focal species by increasing the stability of soil food web. Our results indicate that in the focal species and G. max mixed culture, leaf nitrogen contents of the focal species were higher than in the monoculture and in the other mixed cultures under extreme rainfall. This result was mainly due to the significant increase under extreme rainfall of G. max species root biomass, resulting in enhanced microbial resistance and subsequent net nitrogen mineralization rate and leaf nitrogen uptake for the focal species. Differences in functional traits of neighbors had additive effects and led to a marked divergence of soil food-web resistance and nutrient uptake of the focal species. Climate change can indirectly alleviate focal species via its influence on their neighbors.

  10. Preventing Violent Extremism and "Not in My Name": Theatrical Representation, Artistic Responsibility and Shared Vulnerability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bartlett, Alice

    2011-01-01

    This paper draws on my own recent experience of local artistic engagement with the British government's counter-terrorism strategy, Prevent(ing Violent Extremism). "Not in My Name" uses verbatim theatre techniques to negotiate dialogue within and across communities around a controversial agenda, and has received national acclaim for its…

  11. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deryng, Delphine; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff; Warren, Rachel

    2014-03-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus - 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  12. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  13. Plant characteristic estimation using sonar, multispectral reflectance, and electromagnetic response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Carol L.

    Scope and method of study. The goal of this study was to design, test and validate three methods of remotely estimating plant physical and physiological characteristics. A free-space parallel plate electrostatic sensing system operating at medium radio frequency range was used to estimate water content and plant dry biomass. An ultrasound distance sensing system and a multispectral imaging system was used to directly estimate plant height and top view surface area and indirectly estimate plant biomass. NDVI was calculated from the multispectral imaging system data. Combining NDVI with the plant height and top view surface area estimates, a correlation was observed between plant biomass, chlorophyll content and chlorophyll concentration. Findings and conclusions. Plant water content and dry biomass of greenhouse grown spinach were estimated using a free-space electrostatic sensing system (r2 = 0.95). Ultrasonic sensor-based height estimates and top view surface area multispectral image data provided plant biomass estimates in corn and spinach (r 2 = 0.85 and 0.88). Estimates for snap beans were not as convincing (r2 = 0.52). Combining biomass estimates from the height and surface area data obtained by the ultrasonic distance sensor and the multispectral imaging system with NDVI670 calculated from reflectance data from the imaging system provided strong correlations with chlorophyll content in spinach (r 2 = 0.91). This was an improvement from the chlorophyll content estimates using only NDVI670. Correlations with chlorophyll concentration were weak. The strongest correlation was found using the reflectance ratio, NIR/Green (r2 = 0.30).

  14. An integrated approach for identifying homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall events and estimating IDF curves in Southern Ontario, Canada: Incorporating radar observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paixao, Edson; Mirza, M. Monirul Qader; Shephard, Mark W.; Auld, Heather; Klaassen, Joan; Smith, Graham

    2015-09-01

    Reliable extreme rainfall information is required for many applications including infrastructure design, management of water resources, and planning for weather-related emergencies in urban and rural areas. In this study, in situ TBRG sub-daily rainfall rate observations have been supplemented with weather radar information to better capture the spatial and temporal variability of heavy rainfall events regionally. Comparison of extreme rainfall events show that the absolute differences between the rain gauge and radar generally increase with increasing rainfall. Better agreement between the two observations is found when comparing the collocated radar and TBRG annual maximum values. The median difference is <18% for the annual maximum rainfall values ⩽50 mm. The median of difference of IDF estimates obtained through the Gumbel distribution for 10-year return period values computed from TBRG and radar are also found to be 4%. The overall results of this analysis demonstrates the potential value of incorporating remotely sensed radar with traditional point source TBRG network observations to provide additional insight on extreme rainfall events regionally, especially in terms of identifying homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall. The radar observations are particularly useful in areas where there is insufficient TBRG station density to statistically capture the extreme rainfall events.

  15. Inherent insulin sensitivity is a major determinant of multimeric adiponectin responsiveness to short-term weight loss in extreme obesity.

    PubMed

    Mai, Stefania; Walker, Gillian E; Brunani, Amelia; Guzzaloni, Gabriele; Grossi, Glenda; Oldani, Alberto; Aimaretti, Gianluca; Scacchi, Massimo; Marzullo, Paolo

    2014-07-24

    High molecular weight (HMW-A) adiponectin levels mirror alterations in glucose homeostasis better than medium (MMW-A) and low molecular weight (LMW-A) components. In 25 patients with wide-range extreme obesity (BMI 40-77 kg/m(2)), we aimed to explore if improvements of multimeric adiponectin following 4-wk weight loss reflect baseline OGTT-derived insulin sensitivity (ISIOGTT) and disposition index (DIOGTT). Compared to 40 lean controls, adiponectin oligomers were lower in extreme obesity (p < 0.001) and, within this group, HMW-A levels were higher in insulin-sensitive (p < 0.05) than -resistant patients. In obese patients, short-term weight loss did not change total adiponectin levels and insulin resistance, while the distribution pattern of adiponectin oligomers changed due to significant increment of HMW-A (p < 0.01) and reduction of MMW-A (p < 0.05). By multivariate analysis, final HMW-A levels were significantly related to baseline ISIOGTT and final body weight (adjusted R(2) = 0.41). Our data suggest that HMW adiponectin may reflect baseline insulin sensitivity appropriately in the context of extreme obesity. Especially, we documented that HMW-A is promptly responsive to short-term weight loss prior to changes in insulin resistance, by a magnitude that is proportioned to whole body insulin sensitivity. This may suggest an insulin sensitivity-dependent control operated by HMW-A on metabolic dynamics of patients with extreme obesity.

  16. Upper extremity muscle tone and response of tidal volume during manually assisted breathing for patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation

    PubMed Central

    Morino, Akira; Shida, Masahiro; Tanaka, Masashi; Sato, Kimihiro; Seko, Toshiaki; Ito, Shunsuke; Ogawa, Shunichi; Yokoi, Yuka; Takahashi, Naoaki

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] The aim of the present study was to examine, in patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation, if the response of tidal volume during manually assisted breathing is dependent upon both upper extremity muscle tone and the pressure intensity of manually assisted breathing. [Subjects] We recruited 13 patients on prolonged mechanical ventilation, and assessed their upper extremity muscle tone using the modified Ashworth scale (MAS). The subjects were assigned to either the low MAS group (MAS≤2, n=7) or the high MAS group (MAS≥3, n=6). [Methods] The manually assisted breathing technique was applied at a pressure of 2 kgf and 4 kgf. A split-plot ANOVA was performed to compare the tidal volume of each pressure during manually assisted breathing between the low and the high MAS groups. [Results] Statistical analysis showed there were main effects of the upper extremity muscle tone and the pressure intensity of the manually assisted breathing technique. There was no interaction between these factors. [Conclusion] Our findings reveal that the tidal volume during the manually assisted breathing technique for patients with prolonged mechanical ventilation depends upon the patient’s upper extremity muscle tone and the pressure intensity. PMID:26357431

  17. Acclimation responses to temperature vary with vertical stratification: implications for vulnerability of soil-dwelling species to extreme temperature events.

    PubMed

    van Dooremalen, Coby; Berg, Matty P; Ellers, Jacintha

    2013-03-01

    The occurrence of summer heat waves is predicted to increase in amplitude and frequency in the near future, but the consequences of such extreme events are largely unknown, especially for belowground organisms. Soil organisms usually exhibit strong vertical stratification, resulting in more frequent exposure to extreme temperatures for surface-dwelling species than for soil-dwelling species. Therefore soil-dwelling species are expected to have poor acclimation responses to cope with temperature changes. We used five species of surface-dwelling and four species of soil-dwelling Collembola that habituate different depths in the soil. We tested for differences in tolerance to extreme temperatures after acclimation to warm and cold conditions. We also tested for differences in acclimation of the underlying physiology by looking at changes in membrane lipid composition. Chill coma recovery time, heat knockdown time and fatty acid profiles were determined after 1 week of acclimation to either 5 or 20 °C. Our results showed that surface-dwelling Collembola better maintained increased heat tolerance across acclimation temperatures, but no such response was found for cold tolerance. Concordantly, four of the five surface-dwelling Collembola showed up to fourfold changes in relative abundance of fatty acids after 1 week of acclimation, whereas none of the soil-dwelling species showed a significant adjustment in fatty acid composition. Strong physiological responses to temperature fluctuations may have become redundant in soil-dwelling species due to the relative thermal stability of their subterranean habitat. Based on the results of the four species studied, we expect that unless soil-dwelling species can temporarily retreat to avoid extreme temperatures, the predicted increase in heat waves under climatic change renders these soil-dwelling species more vulnerable to extinction than species with better physiological capabilities. Being able to act under a larger thermal

  18. Extreme ecological response of a seabird community to unprecedented sea ice cover.

    PubMed

    Barbraud, Christophe; Delord, Karine; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2015-05-01

    Climate change has been predicted to reduce Antarctic sea ice but, instead, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has expanded over the past 30 years, albeit with contrasted regional changes. Here we report a recent extreme event in sea ice conditions in East Antarctica and investigate its consequences on a seabird community. In early 2014, the Dumont d'Urville Sea experienced the highest magnitude sea ice cover (76.8%) event on record (1982-2013: range 11.3-65.3%; mean±95% confidence interval: 27.7% (23.1-32.2%)). Catastrophic effects were detected in the breeding output of all sympatric seabird species, with a total failure for two species. These results provide a new view crucial to predictive models of species abundance and distribution as to how extreme sea ice events might impact an entire community of top predators in polar marine ecosystems in a context of expanding sea ice in eastern Antarctica.

  19. Bayesian Estimation of Multi-Unidimensional Graded Response IRT Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuo, Tzu-Chun

    2015-01-01

    Item response theory (IRT) has gained an increasing popularity in large-scale educational and psychological testing situations because of its theoretical advantages over classical test theory. Unidimensional graded response models (GRMs) are useful when polytomous response items are designed to measure a unified latent trait. They are limited in…

  20. Lower Extremity Ulcers in Systemic Sclerosis: Features and Response to Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Shanmugam, Victoria K.; Price, Patricia; Attinger, Christopher E.; Steen, Virginia D.

    2010-01-01

    Nondigital lower extremity ulcers are a difficult to treat complication of scleroderma, and a significant cause of morbidity. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of nondigital lower extremity ulcers in scleroderma and describe the associations with autoantibodies and genetic prothrombotic states. A cohort of 249 consecutive scleroderma patients seen in the Georgetown University Hosptial Division of Rheumatology was evaluated, 10 of whom had active ulcers, giving a prevalence of 4.0%. Patients with diffuse scleroderma had shorter disease duration at the time of ulcer development (mean 4.05 years ± 0.05) compared to those with limited disease (mean 22.83 years ± 5.612, P value .0078). Ulcers were bilateral in 70%. In the 10 patients with ulcers, antiphospholipid antibodies were positive in 50%, and genetic prothrombotic screen was positive in 70% which is higher than expected based on prevalence reports from the general scleroderma population. Of patients with biopsy specimens available (n = 5), fibrin occlusive vasculopathy was seen in 100%, and all of these patients had either positive antiphospholipid antibody screen, or positive genetic prothrombotic profile. We recommend screening scleroderma patients with lower extremity ulcers for the presence of anti-phospholipid antibodies and genetic prothrombotic states. PMID:20827313

  1. Response Surface Model (RSM)-based Benefit Per Ton Estimates

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The tables below are updated versions of the tables appearing in The influence of location, source, and emission type in estimates of the human health benefits of reducing a ton of air pollution (Fann, Fulcher and Hubbell 2009).

  2. Using Climate Variability to Predict Annual Precipitation and Estimate the Persistence of Climate Extremes for Major Urban Areas and Regions within the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giovannettone, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    Relationships between climate variability and precipitation in several urban areas throughout the United States are developed using various global climate indices. Precipitation data for over 1200 stations are obtained from the United States Historical Climatology Network maintained by the National Climate Data Center, NOAA. All data are averaged over an extended period (up to five years) and correlated to several climate indices averaged over a period of equal length using lag times also up to five years. The period length and lag time are optimized in order to produce the highest correlation. The index that best correlates with precipitation for each urban area analyzed in the current study is identified and used to create regions within the United States that are predominantly affected by a particular index; strong correlations (r2 values > 0.70) were found in all regions. The final result is a map of the United States that displays the spatial distribution of each region. These results, which include the specific relationships developed for each region and urban area, will not only allow a greater understanding of the major mechanisms that are responsible for rainfall variability throughout the United States, but will also result in improved predictability of precipitation over multiple time scales, including seasonal and annual. In addition, the ability to predict total rainfall for periods greater than one year will allow an estimate of the persistence of trends and extreme events, such as periods of drought or above-average rainfall, to be made in advance; how far these projections can be made in advance depends on the lag times used to create each site-specific and regional correlation. An example related to the California Drought is given.

  3. ESTIMATION OF RESPONSE-SPECTRAL VALUES AS FUNCTIONS OF MAGNITUDE, DISTANCE, AND SITE CONDITIONS.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Joyner, W.B.; Boore, D.M.; ,

    1983-01-01

    Horizontal pseudo-velocity response was analyzed for twelve shallow earthquakes in western North America. Estimation of response-spectral values was related to magnitude, distance and site conditions. Errors in the methods are analyzed.

  4. Modelling Tradeoffs Evolution in Multipurpose Water Systems Operation in Response to Extreme Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mason, E.; Gazzotti, P.; Amigoni, F.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

    2015-12-01

    Multipurpose water resource systems are usually operated on a tradeoff of the operating objectives, which - under steady state climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions - is supposed to ensure a fair and/or efficient balance among the conflicting interests. Extreme variability in the system's drivers might affect operators' risk aversion and force a change in the tradeoff. Properly accounting for these shifts is key to any rigorous retrospective assessment of operators' behavior and the associated system's performance. In this study, we explore how the selection of different optimal tradeoffs among the operating objectives is linked to the variations of the boundary conditions, such as, for example, drifting rainfall season or remarkable changes in crop and energy prices. We argue that tradeoff selection is driven by recent, extreme variations in system performance: underperforming on one of the operating objective target value should push the tradeoff toward the disadvantaged objective. To test this assumption, we developed a rational procedure to simulate the operators' tradeoff selection process. We map the selection onto a multi lateral negotiation process, where different multiple, virtual agents optimize different operating objectives. The agents periodically negotiate a compromise on the operating policy. The agent's rigidity in each negotiation round is determined by the recent system performances according to the specific objective it represents. The negotiation follows a set-based egocentric monotonic concession protocol: at each negotiation step an agent incrementally adds some options to the set of its acceptable compromises and (possibly) accepts lower and lower satisfying policies until an agreement is achieved. We apply this reiterated negotiation framework on the regulated Lake Como, Italy, simulating the lake dam operation and its recurrent updates over the last 50 years. The operation aims to balance shoreline flood prevention and irrigation

  5. Transcriptomes of the Extremely Thermoacidophilic Archaeon Metallosphaera sedula Exposed to Metal “Shock” Reveal Generic and Specific Metal Responses

    PubMed Central

    Wheaton, Garrett H.; Mukherjee, Arpan

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The extremely thermoacidophilic archaeon Metallosphaera sedula mobilizes metals by novel membrane-associated oxidase clusters and, consequently, requires metal resistance strategies. This issue was examined by “shocking” M. sedula with representative metals (Co2+, Cu2+, Ni2+, UO22+, Zn2+) at inhibitory and subinhibitory levels. Collectively, one-quarter of the genome (554 open reading frames [ORFs]) responded to inhibitory levels, and two-thirds (354) of the ORFs were responsive to a single metal. Cu2+ (259 ORFs, 106 Cu2+-specific ORFs) and Zn2+ (262 ORFs, 131 Zn2+-specific ORFs) triggered the largest responses, followed by UO22+ (187 ORFs, 91 UO22+-specific ORFs), Ni2+ (93 ORFs, 25 Ni2+-specific ORFs), and Co2+ (61 ORFs, 1 Co2+-specific ORF). While one-third of the metal-responsive ORFs are annotated as encoding hypothetical proteins, metal challenge also impacted ORFs responsible for identifiable processes related to the cell cycle, DNA repair, and oxidative stress. Surprisingly, there were only 30 ORFs that responded to at least four metals, and 10 of these responded to all five metals. This core transcriptome indicated induction of Fe-S cluster assembly (Msed_1656-Msed_1657), tungsten/molybdenum transport (Msed_1780-Msed_1781), and decreased central metabolism. Not surprisingly, a metal-translocating P-type ATPase (Msed_0490) associated with a copper resistance system (Cop) was upregulated in response to Cu2+ (6-fold) but also in response to UO22+ (4-fold) and Zn2+ (9-fold). Cu2+ challenge uniquely induced assimilatory sulfur metabolism for cysteine biosynthesis, suggesting a role for this amino acid in Cu2+ resistance or issues in sulfur metabolism. The results indicate that M. sedula employs a range of physiological and biochemical responses to metal challenge, many of which are specific to a single metal and involve proteins with yet unassigned or definitive functions. IMPORTANCE The mechanisms by which extremely thermoacidophilic archaea resist

  6. Estimating Rater Severity with Multilevel and Multidimensional Item Response Modeling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Wen-chung

    Traditional approaches to the investigation of the objectivity of ratings for constructed-response items are based on classical test theory, which is item-dependent and sample-dependent. Item response theory overcomes this drawback by decomposing item difficulties into genuine difficulties and rater severity. In so doing, objectivity of ability…

  7. Estimating the Nominal Response Model under Nonnormal Conditions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Preston, Kathleen Suzanne Johnson; Reise, Steven Paul

    2014-01-01

    The nominal response model (NRM), a much understudied polytomous item response theory (IRT) model, provides researchers the unique opportunity to evaluate within-item category distinctions. Polytomous IRT models, such as the NRM, are frequently applied to psychological assessments representing constructs that are unlikely to be normally…

  8. ZnO quantum dot-doped graphene/h-BN/GaN-heterostructure ultraviolet photodetector with extremely high responsivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Yanghua; Wu, Zhiqian; Xu, Wenli; Lin, Shisheng

    2016-12-01

    A ZnO quantum dot photo-doped graphene/h-BN/GaN-heterostructure ultraviolet photodetector with extremely high responsivity of more than 1915 A W-1 and detectivity of more than 1.02 × 1013 Jones (Jones = cm Hz1/2 W-1) has been demonstrated. The interfaced h-BN layer increases the barrier height at the graphene/GaN heterojunction, which decreases the dark current and improves the on/off current ratio of the device. The photo-doping effect increases the barrier height and carrier concentration at the graphene/h-BN/GaN heterojunction, thus the responsivity is improved from 1473 A W-1 to 1915 A W-1 and the detectivity is improved from 5.8 × 1012 to 1.0 × 1013 Jones. Moreover, all of the responsivity and detectivity values are the highest values among all the graphene-based ultraviolet photodetectors.

  9. Ecological Responses to Extreme Flooding Events: A Case Study with a Reintroduced Bird.

    PubMed

    Soriano-Redondo, Andrea; Bearhop, Stuart; Cleasby, Ian R; Lock, Leigh; Votier, Stephen C; Hilton, Geoff M

    2016-06-27

    In recent years numerous studies have documented the effects of a changing climate on the world's biodiversity. Although extreme weather events are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity and are challenging to organisms, there are few quantitative observations on the survival, behaviour and energy expenditure of animals during such events. We provide the first data on activity and energy expenditure of birds, Eurasian cranes Grus grus, during the winter of 2013-14, which saw the most severe floods in SW England in over 200 years. We fitted 23 cranes with telemetry devices and used remote sensing data to model flood dynamics during three consecutive winters (2012-2015). Our results show that during the acute phase of the 2013-14 floods, potential feeding areas decreased dramatically and cranes restricted their activity to a small partially unflooded area. They also increased energy expenditure (+15%) as they increased their foraging activity and reduced resting time. Survival did not decline in 2013-14, indicating that even though extreme climatic events strongly affected time-energy budgets, behavioural plasticity alleviated any potential impact on fitness. However under climate change scenarios such challenges may not be sustainable over longer periods and potentially could increase species vulnerability.

  10. Ecological Responses to Extreme Flooding Events: A Case Study with a Reintroduced Bird

    PubMed Central

    Soriano-Redondo, Andrea; Bearhop, Stuart; Cleasby, Ian R.; Lock, Leigh; Votier, Stephen C.; Hilton, Geoff M.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years numerous studies have documented the effects of a changing climate on the world’s biodiversity. Although extreme weather events are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity and are challenging to organisms, there are few quantitative observations on the survival, behaviour and energy expenditure of animals during such events. We provide the first data on activity and energy expenditure of birds, Eurasian cranes Grus grus, during the winter of 2013–14, which saw the most severe floods in SW England in over 200 years. We fitted 23 cranes with telemetry devices and used remote sensing data to model flood dynamics during three consecutive winters (2012–2015). Our results show that during the acute phase of the 2013–14 floods, potential feeding areas decreased dramatically and cranes restricted their activity to a small partially unflooded area. They also increased energy expenditure (+15%) as they increased their foraging activity and reduced resting time. Survival did not decline in 2013–14, indicating that even though extreme climatic events strongly affected time-energy budgets, behavioural plasticity alleviated any potential impact on fitness. However under climate change scenarios such challenges may not be sustainable over longer periods and potentially could increase species vulnerability. PMID:27345214

  11. Word Frequency Estimates Revisited--A Response to Alderson (2007)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGee, Iain

    2008-01-01

    Alderson's (2007) paper investigated whether subjective frequency counts for words might be a reliable substitute for corpus data. Alderson is critical of previous research which has found high correlations between corpus data and subjective estimates, and he argues that his own research, "has failed to show that frequency judgements can…

  12. Development of an artificial neural network based multi-model ensemble to estimate the northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India: an application of extreme learning machine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acharya, Nachiketa; Shrivastava, Nitin Anand; Panigrahi, B. K.; Mohanty, U. C.

    2014-09-01

    The south peninsular part of India gets maximum amount of rainfall during the northeast monsoon (NEM) season [October to November (OND)] which is the primary source of water for the agricultural activities in this region. A nonlinear method viz., Extreme learning machine (ELM) has been employed on general circulation model (GCM) products to make the multi-model ensemble (MME) based estimation of NEM rainfall (NEMR). The ELM is basically is an improved learning algorithm for the single feed-forward neural network (SLFN) architecture. The 27 year (1982-2008) lead-1 (using initial conditions of September for forecasting the mean rainfall of OND) hindcast runs (1982-2008) from seven GCM has been used to make MME. The improvement of the proposed method with respect to other regular MME (simple arithmetic mean of GCMs (EM) and singular value decomposition based multiple linear regressions based MME) has been assessed through several skill metrics like Spread distribution, multiplicative bias, prediction errors, the yield of prediction, Pearson's and Kendal's correlation coefficient and Wilmort's index of agreement. The efficiency of ELM estimated rainfall is established by all the stated skill scores. The performance of ELM in extreme NEMR years, out of which 4 years are characterized by deficit rainfall and 5 years are identified as excess, is also examined. It is found that the ELM could expeditiously capture these extremes reasonably well as compared to the other MME approaches.

  13. Tolerance and responsive gene expression of Sogatella furcifera under extreme temperature stresses are altered by its vectored plant virus

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Donglin; Zhong, Ting; Feng, Wendi; Zhou, Guohui

    2016-01-01

    Southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus (SRBSDV), a newly emerged fijivirus causing great loss to rice production in eastern and southeastern Asian countries in recent years, is efficiently transmitted by a rice pest, white-backed planthopper (WBPH, Sogatella furcifera) in a persistent, circulative propagative manner and can be considered as an insect virus. In this study, SRBSDV infection in WBPH was found to increase the vector’s death rate under extreme cold stress but improve its survival rate under extreme heat stress. Digital gene expression profiling based on RNA-Seq revealed different gene regulation patterns in WBPH under viral and/or temperature stress. Under cold stress, the virus infection upregulated 1540 genes and downregulated 131 genes in the insect, most of which were related to membrane properties and biological processes of actin and cytoskeleton; whereas under heat stress, it upregulated 363 genes and downregulated 548 genes, most of which were associated to metabolism and intracellular organelles. Several types of stress-responsive genes involving intestinal mucin, cuticle protein, ubiquitin protease, immune response, RNA interference and heat shock response, were largely upregulated under cold stress, but largely downregulated under heat stress, by SRBSDV infection. Our results suggest two distinct mechanisms of virus-altered vector insect tolerance to temperature stress. PMID:27531640

  14. Estimation of springing response for 550 000 DWT ore carrier

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adenya, Christiaan Adika; Ren, Huilong; Li, Hui; Wang, Di

    2016-09-01

    The desire to benefit from economy of scale is one of the major driving forces behind the continuous growth in ship sizes. However, models of new large ships need to be thoroughly investigated to determine the carrier's response in waves. In this work, experimental and numerical assessments of the motion and load response of a 550,000 DWT ore carrier are performed using prototype ships with softer stiffness, and towing tank tests are conducted using a segmented model with two schemes of softer stiffness. Numerical analyses are performed employing both rigid body and linear hydroelasticity theories using an in-house program and a comparison is then made between experimental and numerical results to establish the influence of stiffness on the ore carrier's springing response. Results show that softer stiffness models can be used when studying the springing response of ships in waves.

  15. ESTIMATION OF AQUATIC SPECIES SENSITIVITY AND POPULATION-LEVEL RESPONSES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Determining species sensitivity and population-level responses of aquatic organisms to contaminants are critical components of criteria development and ecological risk assessment. To address data gaps in species sensitivity, the U.S. EPA developed the Interspecies Correlation Est...

  16. Characterising the Geomorphic Response of a Tropical Mega-River to an Extreme, Cyclone Induced, Flood Event.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hackney, C. R.; Leyland, J.; Darby, S. E.; Parsons, D. R.; Aalto, R. E.; Nicholas, A. P.; Best, J.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme events have the ability to induce extensive geomorphic change in fluvial systems as a result of elevated discharge levels, increased sediment transport capacity and associated changes in sheer stresses along channel boundaries. Understanding how rapid rises in water levels change flow structures and channel boundary roughness is key to understanding the relative significance of large events in terms of driving local and system wide geomorphic change. However, capturing the fluvial process dynamics in operation during such events is technically and logistically difficult, especially in the world's largest rivers. During September 2013, on the peak of the monsoon, a series of tropical cyclones induced a large flood event within the Mekong basin. At the peak of the flood wave, discharge measured ~60000 m3/s; the 11th largest flood on record. Pre and post event high resolution topographic surveys of parts of the bed and bank were captured using a combination of contiguous multibeam echo sounding (MBES) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) during the event. Simultaneously detailed measurements of cross sectional and near bank flow structure were acquired using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (aDcp). Together, these unique datasets can be used to characterise and assess the geomorphic impact of a cyclone induced extreme flood event on the Mekong. We show how flow structures in the near bank region evolve with stage during the extreme event and how the associated geomorphic response is modulated by the distinctive process dynamics of a mega-river.

  17. Osmoregulation in an avian nectarivore, the whitebellied sunbird Nectarinia talatala: response to extremes of diet concentration.

    PubMed

    Fleming, P A; Nicolson, S W

    2003-06-01

    Water intake of nectarivores is intrinsically linked to nectar concentration. Osmoregulation in whitebellied sunbirds Nectarinia talatala (body mass 9.3+/-0.1 g, mean +/- S.D., N=7), was examined by feeding them sucrose solutions, equivalent to extreme diet concentrations (0.07-2.5 mol l(-1) sucrose; 2-65% w/w), with and without supplementary drinking water. Total water gain was 33-515% of body mass daily. Cloacal fluid (CF) volume increased with diet dilution from 0.4% to 309% of body mass while increases in evaporative water loss (obtained by difference) were also recorded. Osmolality of CF demonstrated the largest scope yet recorded for a bird and was significantly correlated with water flux: mean values were 6-460 mosm kg(-1) H(2)O (minimum 3, maximum 1900 mosm kg(-1)). When supplementary water was provided, its consumption by birds fed concentrated diets (2.5 mol l(-1) sucrose) led to a dramatic reduction in CF osmolality, from 461+/-253 to 80+/-119 mosm kg(-1) fluid. Sunbirds maintained energy balance on sucrose diets varying tenfold in concentration, from 0.25 to 2.5 mol l(-1); however, on extremely dilute diets (0.07 and 0.1 mol l(-1) sucrose, lower than natural nectar concentrations) their inability to maintain energy balance was probably due to excess preformed water. Total osmotic excretion and concentrations of Na(+) and K(+) increased with high water fluxes, and are a possible physiological constraint for nectarivorous birds on artificial dilute diets devoid of electrolytes. Even low electrolyte levels in nectars may be adequate to replace these losses, but other physiological limitations to the intake of dilute nectars are increased energetic costs of solute recovery, increased heat loss and interference with digestive processes. Sunbirds therefore deal with sugar solutions spanning the range of nectar concentrations by shutting down water excretion on concentrated diets, or, on dilute diets, by producing extremely dilute CF with some of the lowest

  18. Bayesian Estimation of Panel Data Fractional Response Models with Endogeneity: An Application to Standardized Test Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kessler, Lawrence M.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper I propose Bayesian estimation of a nonlinear panel data model with a fractional dependent variable (bounded between 0 and 1). Specifically, I estimate a panel data fractional probit model which takes into account the bounded nature of the fractional response variable. I outline estimation under the assumption of strict exogeneity as…

  19. Simultaneous Multiple Response Regression and Inverse Covariance Matrix Estimation via Penalized Gaussian Maximum Likelihood.

    PubMed

    Lee, Wonyul; Liu, Yufeng

    2012-10-01

    Multivariate regression is a common statistical tool for practical problems. Many multivariate regression techniques are designed for univariate response cases. For problems with multiple response variables available, one common approach is to apply the univariate response regression technique separately on each response variable. Although it is simple and popular, the univariate response approach ignores the joint information among response variables. In this paper, we propose three new methods for utilizing joint information among response variables. All methods are in a penalized likelihood framework with weighted L(1) regularization. The proposed methods provide sparse estimators of conditional inverse co-variance matrix of response vector given explanatory variables as well as sparse estimators of regression parameters. Our first approach is to estimate the regression coefficients with plug-in estimated inverse covariance matrices, and our second approach is to estimate the inverse covariance matrix with plug-in estimated regression parameters. Our third approach is to estimate both simultaneously. Asymptotic properties of these methods are explored. Our numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed methods perform competitively in terms of prediction, variable selection, as well as inverse covariance matrix estimation.

  20. An Analysis of Variance Approach for the Estimation of Response Time Distributions in Tests

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Attali, Yigal

    2010-01-01

    Generalizability theory and analysis of variance methods are employed, together with the concept of objective time pressure, to estimate response time distributions and the degree of time pressure in timed tests. By estimating response time variance components due to person, item, and their interaction, and fixed effects due to item types and…

  1. NEUROTOXIC EFFECTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL AGENTS: DATA GAPS THAT CHALLENGE DOSE-RESPONSE ESTIMATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Neurotoxic effects of environmental agents: Data gaps that challenge dose-response estimation
    S Gutter*, P Mendola+, SG Selevan**, D Rice** (*UNC Chapel Hill; +US EPA, NHEERL; **US EPA, NCEA)

    Dose-response estimation is a critical feature of risk assessment. It can be...

  2. Bayesian Estimation of Graded Response Multilevel Models Using Gibbs Sampling: Formulation and Illustration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Natesan, Prathiba; Limbers, Christine; Varni, James W.

    2010-01-01

    The present study presents the formulation of graded response models in the multilevel framework (as nonlinear mixed models) and demonstrates their use in estimating item parameters and investigating the group-level effects for specific covariates using Bayesian estimation. The graded response multilevel model (GRMM) combines the formulation of…

  3. Extreme and Local 3rd Harmonic Response of Niobium (Nb) Superconductor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oripov, Bakhrom; Tai, Tamin; Anlage, Steven

    Superconducting Radio Frequency (SRF) cavities are being widely used in new generation particle accelerators. These SRF cavities are based on bulk Nb. Based on the needs of the SRF community to identify defects on Nb surfaces, a novel near-field magnetic microwave microscope was successfully built using a magnetic writer from a conventional magnetic recording hard-disk drive1. This magnetic writer can create an RF magnetic field, localized and strong enough to drive Nb into the vortex state. This probe enables us to locate defects through scanning and mapping of the local electrodynamic response in the multi-GHz frequency range. Recent measurements have shown that 3rd harmonic nonlinear response is far more sensitive to variations in input power and temperature then linear response, thus we mainly study the 3rd harmonic response. Moreover, the superconductor is usually the only source for nonlinear response in our setup, thus there is less chance of having noise or background signal. Understanding the mechanism responsible for this non-linear response is important for improving the performance of SRF cavities. Besides Nb we also study various other superconductors such as MgB2 and the cuprate Bi-Sr-Ca-Cu-O (BSCCO) for potential applications in SRF cavities. This work is funded by US Department of Energy through Grant # DE-SC0012036T and CNAM.

  4. Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Fernandes, Maria Rosário; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

    2016-11-01

    Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems.

  5. Estimation of extreme sea levels along the Bangladesh coast due to storm surge and sea level rise using EEMD and EVA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Han Soo

    2013-09-01

    Extreme sea levels due to storm surge and future sea level rise (SLR) in the year 2050 are estimated using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and extreme value analysis (EVA) based on long-term sea level records from Hiron Point (HP) on the coast of western Bangladesh. EEMD is an adaptive method that can detrend the nonlinear trend and separate the tidal motions from the original sea level records to reconstruct storm surge levels at HP. The reconstructed storm surge levels are then applied to EVA to obtain the extreme storm surges in the target return periods at a 95% confidence interval (CI). The 30, 50, and 100 year return levels at HP obtained by EVA are 1.59, 1.66, and 1.75 m. The SLR trend obtained from EEMD is 4.46 mm/yr over April 1990 to March 2009, which is larger than the recent altimetry-based global rate of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr over the period from 1993 to 2007. The resulting SLR in 2050 is estimated as 0.34 m. Therefore, the extreme sea level in 2050 due to SLR and the storm surge at a 100 year return level would be 2.09 m (95% CI from 1.91 to 2.48 m). The SLR depends not only on changes in the mass and volume of sea water but also on other factors, such as local subsidence, river discharge, sediment and the effects of vegetation. The residual nonlinear trend of SLR obtained from EEMD can be regarded as an adaptive sea level after considering those factors and their nonlinearity.

  6. Estimation of Response Functions Based on Variational Bayes Algorithm in Dynamic Images Sequences

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    We proposed a nonparametric Bayesian model based on variational Bayes algorithm to estimate the response functions in dynamic medical imaging. In dynamic renal scintigraphy, the impulse response or retention functions are rather complicated and finding a suitable parametric form is problematic. In this paper, we estimated the response functions using nonparametric Bayesian priors. These priors were designed to favor desirable properties of the functions, such as sparsity or smoothness. These assumptions were used within hierarchical priors of the variational Bayes algorithm. We performed our algorithm on the real online dataset of dynamic renal scintigraphy. The results demonstrated that this algorithm improved the estimation of response functions with nonparametric priors. PMID:27631007

  7. A new mean estimator using auxiliary variables for randomized response models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozgul, Nilgun; Cingi, Hulya

    2013-10-01

    Randomized response models are commonly used in surveys dealing with sensitive questions such as abortion, alcoholism, sexual orientation, drug taking, annual income, tax evasion to ensure interviewee anonymity and reduce nonrespondents rates and biased responses. Starting from the pioneering work of Warner [7], many versions of RRM have been developed that can deal with quantitative responses. In this study, new mean estimator is suggested for RRM including quantitative responses. The mean square error is derived and a simulation study is performed to show the efficiency of the proposed estimator to other existing estimators in RRM.

  8. Estimation of in-situ bioremediation system cost using a hybrid Extreme Learning Machine (ELM)-particle swarm optimization approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yadav, Basant; Ch, Sudheer; Mathur, Shashi; Adamowski, Jan

    2016-12-01

    In-situ bioremediation is the most common groundwater remediation procedure used for treating organically contaminated sites. A simulation-optimization approach, which incorporates a simulation model for groundwaterflow and transport processes within an optimization program, could help engineers in designing a remediation system that best satisfies management objectives as well as regulatory constraints. In-situ bioremediation is a highly complex, non-linear process and the modelling of such a complex system requires significant computational exertion. Soft computing techniques have a flexible mathematical structure which can generalize complex nonlinear processes. In in-situ bioremediation management, a physically-based model is used for the simulation and the simulated data is utilized by the optimization model to optimize the remediation cost. The recalling of simulator to satisfy the constraints is an extremely tedious and time consuming process and thus there is need for a simulator which can reduce the computational burden. This study presents a simulation-optimization approach to achieve an accurate and cost effective in-situ bioremediation system design for groundwater contaminated with BTEX (Benzene, Toluene, Ethylbenzene, and Xylenes) compounds. In this study, the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) is used as a proxy simulator to replace BIOPLUME III for the simulation. The selection of ELM is done by a comparative analysis with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) as they were successfully used in previous studies of in-situ bioremediation system design. Further, a single-objective optimization problem is solved by a coupled Extreme Learning Machine (ELM)-Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) technique to achieve the minimum cost for the in-situ bioremediation system design. The results indicate that ELM is a faster and more accurate proxy simulator than ANN and SVM. The total cost obtained by the ELM-PSO approach is held to a minimum

  9. Reliable estimations of extreme low flows by integrating very low flows in the model performance evaluation with a multi-metric framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfannerstill, Matthias; Guse, Björn; Fohrer, Nicola

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological models are helpful tools to predict hydrological extremes and to understand the main governing processes for flood and drought events. For reliable predictions of extremes in future simulation such as climate change estimations, a precise representation of high and low flows in hydrological models is required. As a consequence, the hydrological models have to be calibrated accurately to provide reasonable model results for the different phases of the hydrograph simultaneously. For this challenge, the different phases of the hydrograph have to be considered in multi-metric frameworks with appropriate performance metrics. Low flows need to be reproduced together with high flows without neglecting the other phases of the hydrograph. In our study, we highlight the relevance of model evaluation for very low and low flows with separate performance metrics to achieve a satisfying model performance for the low flow prediction together with the overall discharge reproduction. Therefore, we present a multi-metric evaluation framework to identify calibration runs with a precise representation of the hydrograph. In order to consider a fairly balanced evaluation between high and low flow phases, we divided the flow duration curve into segments of high, medium and low flow phases, and additionally into extreme high and extreme low flow phases. The model performance was evaluated stepwise for these segments separately with the root mean square error (RMSE) together with further application of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the percent bias for the whole discharge. Our results show that this evaluation method leads to an improved selection of model runs with enhanced overall model performance by the refined segmentation of FDC. By combining performance metrics for high flow conditions with low flow conditions, this study demonstrates the challenge of calibrating a model with a satisfactory performance in high and low phases simultaneously. Consequently, we conclude

  10. The Response of Different Audiences to Place-based Communication about the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Weather Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halperin, A.; Walton, P.

    2015-12-01

    As the science of extreme event attribution grows, there is an increasing need to understand how the public responds to this type of climate change communication. Extreme event attribution has the unprecedented potential to locate the effects of climate change in the here and now, but there is little information about how different facets of the public might respond to these local framings of climate change. Drawing on theories of place attachment and psychological distance, this paper explores how people with different beliefs and values shift their willingness to mitigate and adapt to climate change in response to local or global communication of climate change impacts. Results will be presented from a recent survey of over 600 Californians who were each presented with one of three experimental conditions: 1) a local framing of the role of climate change in the California drought 2) a global framing of climate change and droughts worldwide, or 3) a control condition of no text. Participants were categorized into groups based on their prior beliefs about climate change according to the Six Americas classification scheme (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The results from the survey in conjunction with qualitative results from follow-up interviews shed insight into the importance of place in communicating climate change for people in each of the Six Americas. Additional results examine the role of gender and political affiliation in mediating responses to climate change communication. Despite research that advocates unequivocally for local framing of climate change, this study offers a more nuanced perspective of under which circumstances extreme event attribution might be an effective tool for changing behaviors. These results could be useful for scientists who wish to gain a better understanding of how their event attribution research is perceived or for educators who want to target their message to audiences where it could have the most impact.

  11. Extreme oceanographic forcing and coastal response due to the 2015–2016 El Niño

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barnard, Patrick; Hoover, Daniel J.; Hubbard, David M.; Snyder, Alexander; Ludka, Bonnie C.; Allan, Jonathan; Kaminsky, George M.; Ruggiero,; Gallien, Timu W.; Gabel, Laura; McCandless, Diana; Weiner, Heather M.; Cohn, Nicholas; Anderson, Dylan L.; Serafin, Katherine A.

    2017-01-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability across the Pacific Ocean basin, with influence on the global climate. The two end members of the cycle, El Niño and La Niña, force anomalous oceanographic conditions and coastal response along the Pacific margin, exposing many heavily populated regions to increased coastal flooding and erosion hazards. However, a quantitative record of coastal impacts is spatially limited and temporally restricted to only the most recent events. Here we report on the oceanographic forcing and coastal response of the 2015–2016 El Niño, one of the strongest of the last 145 years. We show that winter wave energy equalled or exceeded measured historical maxima across the US West Coast, corresponding to anomalously large beach erosion across the region. Shorelines in many areas retreated beyond previously measured landward extremes, particularly along the sediment-starved California coast.

  12. Extreme oceanographic forcing and coastal response due to the 2015-2016 El Niño

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnard, Patrick L.; Hoover, Daniel; Hubbard, David M.; Snyder, Alex; Ludka, Bonnie C.; Allan, Jonathan; Kaminsky, George M.; Ruggiero, Peter; Gallien, Timu W.; Gabel, Laura; McCandless, Diana; Weiner, Heather M.; Cohn, Nicholas; Anderson, Dylan L.; Serafin, Katherine A.

    2017-02-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability across the Pacific Ocean basin, with influence on the global climate. The two end members of the cycle, El Niño and La Niña, force anomalous oceanographic conditions and coastal response along the Pacific margin, exposing many heavily populated regions to increased coastal flooding and erosion hazards. However, a quantitative record of coastal impacts is spatially limited and temporally restricted to only the most recent events. Here we report on the oceanographic forcing and coastal response of the 2015-2016 El Niño, one of the strongest of the last 145 years. We show that winter wave energy equalled or exceeded measured historical maxima across the US West Coast, corresponding to anomalously large beach erosion across the region. Shorelines in many areas retreated beyond previously measured landward extremes, particularly along the sediment-starved California coast.

  13. Extreme oceanographic forcing and coastal response due to the 2015-2016 El Niño.

    PubMed

    Barnard, Patrick L; Hoover, Daniel; Hubbard, David M; Snyder, Alex; Ludka, Bonnie C; Allan, Jonathan; Kaminsky, George M; Ruggiero, Peter; Gallien, Timu W; Gabel, Laura; McCandless, Diana; Weiner, Heather M; Cohn, Nicholas; Anderson, Dylan L; Serafin, Katherine A

    2017-02-14

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability across the Pacific Ocean basin, with influence on the global climate. The two end members of the cycle, El Niño and La Niña, force anomalous oceanographic conditions and coastal response along the Pacific margin, exposing many heavily populated regions to increased coastal flooding and erosion hazards. However, a quantitative record of coastal impacts is spatially limited and temporally restricted to only the most recent events. Here we report on the oceanographic forcing and coastal response of the 2015-2016 El Niño, one of the strongest of the last 145 years. We show that winter wave energy equalled or exceeded measured historical maxima across the US West Coast, corresponding to anomalously large beach erosion across the region. Shorelines in many areas retreated beyond previously measured landward extremes, particularly along the sediment-starved California coast.

  14. Extreme oceanographic forcing and coastal response due to the 2015–2016 El Niño

    PubMed Central

    Barnard, Patrick L.; Hoover, Daniel; Hubbard, David M.; Snyder, Alex; Ludka, Bonnie C.; Allan, Jonathan; Kaminsky, George M.; Ruggiero, Peter; Gallien, Timu W.; Gabel, Laura; McCandless, Diana; Weiner, Heather M.; Cohn, Nicholas; Anderson, Dylan L.; Serafin, Katherine A.

    2017-01-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability across the Pacific Ocean basin, with influence on the global climate. The two end members of the cycle, El Niño and La Niña, force anomalous oceanographic conditions and coastal response along the Pacific margin, exposing many heavily populated regions to increased coastal flooding and erosion hazards. However, a quantitative record of coastal impacts is spatially limited and temporally restricted to only the most recent events. Here we report on the oceanographic forcing and coastal response of the 2015–2016 El Niño, one of the strongest of the last 145 years. We show that winter wave energy equalled or exceeded measured historical maxima across the US West Coast, corresponding to anomalously large beach erosion across the region. Shorelines in many areas retreated beyond previously measured landward extremes, particularly along the sediment-starved California coast. PMID:28195580

  15. Models Of Lower Extremity Damage In Mice: Time Course of Organ Damage & Immune Response

    PubMed Central

    Menzel, Christoph L; Pfeifer, Roman; Darwiche, Sophie S; Kobbe, Philipp; Gill, Roop; Shapiro, Richard A; Loughran, Patricia; Vodovotz, Yoram; Scott, Melanie J; Zenati, Mazen S; Billiar, Timothy R; Pape, Hans-Christoph

    2011-01-01

    Background Posttraumatic inflammatory changes have been identified as major causes of altered organ function and failure. Both hemorrhage and soft tissue damage induce these inflammatory changes. Exposure to heterologous bone in animal models has recently been shown to mimic this inflammatory response in a stable and reproducible fashion. This follow-up study tests the hypothesis that inflammatory responses are comparable between a novel trauma model (“pseudofracture”, PFx) and a bilateral femur fracture (BFF) model. Materials and Methods In C57BL/6 mice, markers for remote organ dysfunction and inflammatory responses were compared in 4 groups (control/sham/BFF/PFx) at the time points 2, 4, and 6 hours. Results Hepatocellular damage in BFF and PFx was highly comparable in extent and evolution, as shown by similar levels of NFκB activation and plasma ALT. Pulmonary inflammatory responses were also comparably elevated in both trauma models as early as 2h after trauma as measured by myeloperoxidase activity (MPO). Muscle damage was provoked in both BFF and PFx mice over the time course, although BFF induced significantly higher AST and CK levels. IL-6 levels were also similar with early and sustained increases over time in both trauma models. Conclusions Both BFF and PFx create similar reproducible inflammatory and remote organ responses. PFx will be a useful model to study longer term inflammatory effects that cannot be studied using BFF. PMID:21276982

  16. Response of Bacillus subtilis spores to dehydration and UV irradiation at extremely low temperatures.

    PubMed

    Dose, K; Klein, A

    1996-02-01

    Spores of Bacillus subtilis have been exposed to the conditions of extreme dehydration (argon/silica gel; simulated space vacuum) for up to 12 weeks at 298 K and 80 K in the dark. The inactivation has been correlated with the production of DNA-double strand-breaks. The temperature-dependence of the rate constants for inactivation or production of DNA-double strand-breaks is surprisingly low. Controls kept in the frozen state at 250 K for the same period of time showed no sign of deterioration. In another series of experiments the spores have been UV irradiated (253.7 nm) at 298 K, 200 K and 80 K after exposure to dehydrating conditions for 3 days. Fluence-effect relationships for inactivation, production of DNA-double strand-breaks and DNA-protein cross-links are presented. The corresponding F37-values for inactivation and production of DNA lesions are significantly increased only at 80 K (factor of 4 to 5). The data indicate that the low temperatures that prevail in the outer parts of the Solar System or at the nightside of Mars or the Moon are not sufficiently low to crucially inhibit inactivation by dehydration. Our data place further constraints on the panspermia hypothesis.

  17. Productivity responses of a widespread marine piscivore, Gadus morhua, to oceanic thermal extremes and trends.

    PubMed

    Mantzouni, Irene; MacKenzie, Brian R

    2010-06-22

    Climate change will have major consequences for population dynamics and life histories of marine biota as it progresses in the twenty-first century. These impacts will differ in magnitude and direction for populations within individual marine species whose geographical ranges span large gradients in latitude and temperature. Here we use meta-analytical methods to investigate how recruitment (i.e. the number of new fish produced by spawners in a given year which subsequently grow and survive to become vulnerable to fishing gear) has reacted to temperature fluctuations, and in particular to extremes of temperature, in cod populations throughout the north Atlantic. Temperature has geographically explicit effects on cod recruitment. Impacts differ depending on whether populations are located in the upper (negative effects) or in the lower (positive effects) thermal range. The probabilities of successful year-classes in populations living in warm areas is on average 34 per cent higher in cold compared with warm seasons, whereas opposite patterns exist for populations living in cold areas. These results have implications for cod dynamics, distributions and phenologies under the influence of ocean warming, particularly related to not only changes in the mean temperature, but also its variability (e.g. frequency of exceptionally cold or warm seasons).

  18. Proteomic response of Schizosaccharomyces pombe to static and oscillating extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields.

    PubMed

    Sinclair, John; Weeks, Mark; Butt, Amna; Worthington, Jessica L; Akpan, Akunna; Jones, Nic; Waterfield, Mike; Allanand, Donald; Timms, John F

    2006-09-01

    There is considerable public concern regarding the health effects of exposure to low-frequency electromagnetic fields. In addition, the association between exposure and disease incidence or the possible biological effects of exposure are unclear. Using 2D-DIGE and MS in a blind study, we have investigated the effects of static and oscillating extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields (ELF EMFs) on the proteomes of wild type Schizosaccharomyces pombe and a Sty1p deletion mutant which displays increased sensitivity to a variety of cellular stresses. Whilst this study identifies a number of protein isoforms that display significant differential expression across experimental conditions, there was no correlation between their patterns of expression and the ELF EMF exposure regimen. We conclude that there are no significant effects of either static or oscillating EMF on the yeast proteome at the sensitivity afforded by 2D-DIGE. We hypothesise that the proteins identified must be sensitive to subtle changes in culture and/or handling conditions, and that the identification of these proteins in other proteomic studies should be treated with some caution when the results of such studies are interpreted in a biological context.

  19. Doubly robust estimates for binary longitudinal data analysis with missing response and missing covariates.

    PubMed

    Chen, Baojiang; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

    2011-09-01

    Longitudinal studies often feature incomplete response and covariate data. Likelihood-based methods such as the expectation-maximization algorithm give consistent estimators for model parameters when data are missing at random (MAR) provided that the response model and the missing covariate model are correctly specified; however, we do not need to specify the missing data mechanism. An alternative method is the weighted estimating equation, which gives consistent estimators if the missing data and response models are correctly specified; however, we do not need to specify the distribution of the covariates that have missing values. In this article, we develop a doubly robust estimation method for longitudinal data with missing response and missing covariate when data are MAR. This method is appealing in that it can provide consistent estimators if either the missing data model or the missing covariate model is correctly specified. Simulation studies demonstrate that this method performs well in a variety of situations.

  20. Responses of soil bacterial and fungal communities to extreme desiccation and rewetting.

    PubMed

    Barnard, Romain L; Osborne, Catherine A; Firestone, Mary K

    2013-11-01

    The microbial response to summer desiccation reflects adaptation strategies, setting the stage for a large rainfall-induced soil CO2 pulse upon rewetting, an important component of the ecosystem carbon budget. In three California annual grasslands, the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (RNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities were tracked over a summer season and in response to controlled rewetting of intact soil cores. Phylogenetic marker genes for bacterial (16S) and fungal (28S) RNA and DNA were sequenced, and the abundances of these genes and transcripts were measured. Although bacterial community composition differed among sites, all sites shared a similar response pattern of the present and potentially active bacterial community to dry-down and wet-up. In contrast, the fungal community was not detectably different among sites, and was largely unaffected by dry-down, showing marked resistance to dessication. The potentially active bacterial community changed significantly as summer dry-down progressed, then returned to pre-dry-down composition within several hours of rewetting, displaying spectacular resilience. Upon rewetting, transcript copies of bacterial rpoB genes increased consistently, reflecting rapid activity resumption. Acidobacteria and Actinobacteria were the most abundant phyla present and potentially active, and showed the largest changes in relative abundance. The relative increase (Actinobacteria) and decrease (Acidobacteria) with dry-down, and the reverse responses to rewetting reflected a differential response, which was conserved at the phylum level and consistent across sites. These contrasting desiccation-related bacterial life-strategies suggest that predicted changes in precipitation patterns may affect soil nutrient and carbon cycling by differentially impacting activity patterns of microbial communities.

  1. Mechanical response tissue analyzer for estimating bone strength

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arnaud, Sara B.; Steele, Charles; Mauriello, Anthony

    1991-01-01

    One of the major concerns for extended space flight is weakness of the long bones of the legs, composed primarily of cortical bone, that functions to provide mechanical support. The strength of cortical bone is due to its complex structure, described simplistically as cylinders of parallel osteons composed of layers of mineralized collagen. The reduced mechanical stresses during space flight or immobilization of bone on Earth reduces the mineral content, and changes the components of its matrix and structure so that its strength is reduced. Currently, the established clinical measures of bone strength are indirect. The measures are based on determinations of mineral density by means of radiography, photon absorptiometry, and quantitative computer tomography. While the mineral content of bone is essential to its strength, there is growing awareness of the limitations of the measurement as the sole predictor of fracture risk in metabolic bone diseases, especially limitations of the measurement as the sole predictor of fracture risk in metabolic bone diseases, especially osteoporosis. Other experimental methods in clinical trials that more directly evaluate the physical properties of bone, and do not require exposure to radiation, include ultrasound, acoustic emission, and low-frequency mechanical vibration. The last method can be considered a direct measure of the functional capacity of a long bone since it quantifies the mechanical response to a stimulus delivered directly to the bone. A low frequency vibration induces a response (impedance) curve with a minimum at the resonant frequency, that a few investigators use for the evaluation of the bone. An alternative approach, the method under consideration, is to use the response curve as the basis for determination of the bone bending stiffness EI (E is the intrinsic material property and I is the cross-sectional moment of inertia) and mass, fundamental mechanical properties of bone.

  2. Estimating the strength of bone using linear response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gunaratne, Gemunu H.

    2002-12-01

    Accurate diagnostic tools are required for effective management of osteoporosis; one method to identify additional diagnostics is to search for observable consequences of bone loss. An analysis of a model system is used to show that weakening of a bone is accompanied by a reduction of the fraction of the bone that participates in load transmission. On the basis of this observation, it is argued that the ratio Γ of linear responses of a network to dc and high-frequency ac driving can be used as a surrogate for their strength. Protocols needed to obtain Γ for bone samples are discussed.

  3. How extreme are extremes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

    2016-04-01

    High temperatures have an impact on the energy balance of any living organism and on the operational capabilities of critical infrastructures. Heat-wave indicators have been mainly developed with the aim of capturing the potential impacts on specific sectors (agriculture, health, wildfires, transport, power generation and distribution). However, the ability to capture the occurrence of extreme temperature events is an essential property of a multi-hazard extreme climate indicator. Aim of this study is to develop a standardized heat-wave indicator, that can be combined with other indices in order to describe multiple hazards in a single indicator. The proposed approach can be used in order to have a quantified indicator of the strenght of a certain extreme. As a matter of fact, extremes are usually distributed in exponential or exponential-exponential functions and it is difficult to quickly asses how strong was an extreme events considering only its magnitude. The proposed approach simplify the quantitative and qualitative communication of extreme magnitude

  4. An approach to quantifying 3D responses of cells to extreme strain

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yuhui; Huang, Guoyou; Li, Moxiao; Wang, Lin; Elson, Elliot L.; Jian Lu, Tian; Genin, Guy M.; Xu, Feng

    2016-01-01

    The tissues of hollow organs can routinely stretch up to 2.5 times their length. Although significant pathology can arise if relatively large stretches are sustained, the responses of cells are not known at these levels of sustained strain. A key challenge is presenting cells with a realistic and well-defined three-dimensional (3D) culture environment that can sustain such strains. Here, we describe an in vitro system called microscale, magnetically-actuated synthetic tissues (micro-MASTs) to quantify these responses for cells within a 3D hydrogel matrix. Cellular strain-threshold and saturation behaviors were observed in hydrogel matrix, including strain-dependent proliferation, spreading, polarization, and differentiation, and matrix adhesion retained at strains sufficient for apoptosis. More broadly, the system shows promise for defining and controlling the effects of mechanical environment upon a broad range of cells. PMID:26887698

  5. On the consideration of scaling properties of extreme rainfall in Madrid (Spain) for developing a generalized intensity-duration-frequency equation and assessing probable maximum precipitation estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casas-Castillo, M. Carmen; Rodríguez-Solà, Raúl; Navarro, Xavier; Russo, Beniamino; Lastra, Antonio; González, Paula; Redaño, Angel

    2016-11-01

    The fractal behavior of extreme rainfall intensities registered between 1940 and 2012 by the Retiro Observatory of Madrid (Spain) has been examined, and a simple scaling regime ranging from 25 min to 3 days of duration has been identified. Thus, an intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) master equation of the location has been constructed in terms of the simple scaling formulation. The scaling behavior of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for durations between 5 min and 24 h has also been verified. For the statistical estimation of the PMP, an envelope curve of the frequency factor (k m ) based on a total of 10,194 station-years of annual maximum rainfall from 258 stations in Spain has been developed. This curve could be useful to estimate suitable values of PMP at any point of the Iberian Peninsula from basic statistical parameters (mean and standard deviation) of its rainfall series.

  6. Breeding on the extreme edge: modulation of the adrenocortical response to acute stress in two High Arctic passerines.

    PubMed

    Walker, Brian G; Meddle, Simone L; Romero, L Michael; Landys, Meta M; Reneerkens, Jeroen; Wingfield, John C

    2015-04-01

    Arctic weather in spring is unpredictable and can also be extreme, so Arctic-breeding birds must be flexible in their breeding to deal with such variability. Unpredictability in weather conditions will only intensify with climate change and this in turn could affect reproductive capability of migratory birds. Adjustments to coping strategies are therefore crucial, so here we examined the plasticity of the adrenocorticotropic stress response in two Arctic songbird species-the snow bunting (Plectrophenax nivalis) and Lapland longspur (Calcarius lapponicus)-breeding in northwest Greenland. Across the breeding season, the stress response was strongest at arrival and least robust during molt in male snow buntings. Snow bunting females had higher baseline but similar stress-induced corticosterone levels compared to males. Modification of the stress response was not due to adrenal insensitivity, but likely regulated at the anterior pituitary gland. Compared to independent nestlings and adult snow buntings, parental-dependent chicks had a more robust stress response. For Lapland longspurs, baseline corticosterone was highest at arrival in both male and females, and arriving males displayed a higher stress response compared to arriving females. Comparison of male corticosterone profiles collected at arrival in Greenland (76°N) and Alaska (67-71°N;) reveal that both species have higher stress responses at the more northern location. Flexibility in the stress response may be typical for birds nesting at the leading edges of their range and this ability will become more relevant as global climate change results in major shifts of breeding habitat and phenology for migratory birds.

  7. A simple optical model to estimate diffuse attenuation coefficient of photosynthetically active radiation in an extremely turbid lake from surface reflectance.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yunlin; Liu, Xiaohan; Yin, Yan; Wang, Mingzhu; Qin, Boqiang

    2012-08-27

    Accurate estimation of the diffuse attenuation coefficient is critical for our understanding and modelling of key physical, chemical, and biological processes in water bodies. For extremely turbid, shallow, Lake Taihu in China, we synchronously monitored the diffuse attenuation coefficient of photosynthetically active radiation (Kd(PAR)) and the remote sensing reflectance at 134 sites. Kd(PAR)) varied greatly among different sites from 1.62 to 14.68 m(-1) with a mean value of 5.62 ± 2.99 m(-1). A simple optical model from near-infrared remote sensing reflectance of MODIS channels 2 (859 nm) and 15 (748 nm) was calibrated, and validated, to estimate Kd(PAR). With the simple optical model, the root mean square error and mean relative error were 0.95 m(-1) and 17.0% respectively at 748 nm, and 0.98 m(-1) and 17.6% at 859 nm, based on an independent validation data set. Our results showed a good precision of estimation for Kd(PAR) using the new simple optical model, contrasting with the poor estimations derived from existing empirical and semi-analytical models developed in clear, open ocean waters or slightly turbid coastal waters. Although at 748 nm the model had slightly higher precision than at 859 nm, the spatial resolution at 859 nm was four times that at 748 nm. Therefore, we propose a new model based on the MODIS-derived normalized water-leaving radiances at a wavelength of 859 nm, for accurate retrieval of Kd(PAR) in extremely turbid, shallow lakes with Kd(PAR) larger than 1.5 m(-1).

  8. Different oxidative stress response in keratinocytes and fibroblasts of reconstructed skin exposed to non extreme daily-ultraviolet radiation.

    PubMed

    Marionnet, Claire; Pierrard, Cécile; Lejeune, François; Sok, Juliette; Thomas, Marie; Bernerd, Françoise

    2010-08-10

    Experiments characterizing the biological effects of sun exposure have usually involved solar simulators. However, they addressed the worst case scenario i.e. zenithal sun, rarely found in common outdoor activities. A non-extreme ultraviolet radiation (UV) spectrum referred as "daily UV radiation" (DUVR) with a higher UVA (320-400 nm) to UVB (280-320 nm) irradiance ratio has therefore been defined. In this study, the biological impact of an acute exposure to low physiological doses of DUVR (corresponding to 10 and 20% of the dose received per day in Paris mid-April) on a 3 dimensional reconstructed skin model, was analysed. In such conditions, epidermal and dermal morphological alterations could only be detected after the highest dose of DUVR. We then focused on oxidative stress response induced by DUVR, by analyzing the modulation of mRNA level of 24 markers in parallel in fibroblasts and keratinocytes. DUVR significantly modulated mRNA levels of these markers in both cell types. A cell type differential response was noticed: it was faster in fibroblasts, with a majority of inductions and high levels of modulation in contrast to keratinocyte response. Our results thus revealed a higher sensitivity in response to oxidative stress of dermal fibroblasts although located deeper in the skin, giving new insights into the skin biological events occurring in everyday UV exposure.

  9. Different Oxidative Stress Response in Keratinocytes and Fibroblasts of Reconstructed Skin Exposed to Non Extreme Daily-Ultraviolet Radiation

    PubMed Central

    Marionnet, Claire; Pierrard, Cécile; Lejeune, François; Sok, Juliette; Thomas, Marie; Bernerd, Françoise

    2010-01-01

    Experiments characterizing the biological effects of sun exposure have usually involved solar simulators. However, they addressed the worst case scenario i.e. zenithal sun, rarely found in common outdoor activities. A non-extreme ultraviolet radiation (UV) spectrum referred as “daily UV radiation” (DUVR) with a higher UVA (320–400 nm) to UVB (280–320 nm) irradiance ratio has therefore been defined. In this study, the biological impact of an acute exposure to low physiological doses of DUVR (corresponding to 10 and 20% of the dose received per day in Paris mid-April) on a 3 dimensional reconstructed skin model, was analysed. In such conditions, epidermal and dermal morphological alterations could only be detected after the highest dose of DUVR. We then focused on oxidative stress response induced by DUVR, by analyzing the modulation of mRNA level of 24 markers in parallel in fibroblasts and keratinocytes. DUVR significantly modulated mRNA levels of these markers in both cell types. A cell type differential response was noticed: it was faster in fibroblasts, with a majority of inductions and high levels of modulation in contrast to keratinocyte response. Our results thus revealed a higher sensitivity in response to oxidative stress of dermal fibroblasts although located deeper in the skin, giving new insights into the skin biological events occurring in everyday UV exposure. PMID:20706594

  10. Signal inference with unknown response: Calibration-uncertainty renormalized estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorn, Sebastian; Enßlin, Torsten A.; Greiner, Maksim; Selig, Marco; Boehm, Vanessa

    2015-01-01

    The calibration of a measurement device is crucial for every scientific experiment, where a signal has to be inferred from data. We present CURE, the calibration-uncertainty renormalized estimator, to reconstruct a signal and simultaneously the instrument's calibration from the same data without knowing the exact calibration, but its covariance structure. The idea of the CURE method, developed in the framework of information field theory, is to start with an assumed calibration to successively include more and more portions of calibration uncertainty into the signal inference equations and to absorb the resulting corrections into renormalized signal (and calibration) solutions. Thereby, the signal inference and calibration problem turns into a problem of solving a single system of ordinary differential equations and can be identified with common resummation techniques used in field theories. We verify the CURE method by applying it to a simplistic toy example and compare it against existent self-calibration schemes, Wiener filter solutions, and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. We conclude that the method is able to keep up in accuracy with the best self-calibration methods and serves as a noniterative alternative to them.

  11. Signal inference with unknown response: calibration-uncertainty renormalized estimator.

    PubMed

    Dorn, Sebastian; Enßlin, Torsten A; Greiner, Maksim; Selig, Marco; Boehm, Vanessa

    2015-01-01

    The calibration of a measurement device is crucial for every scientific experiment, where a signal has to be inferred from data. We present CURE, the calibration-uncertainty renormalized estimator, to reconstruct a signal and simultaneously the instrument's calibration from the same data without knowing the exact calibration, but its covariance structure. The idea of the CURE method, developed in the framework of information field theory, is to start with an assumed calibration to successively include more and more portions of calibration uncertainty into the signal inference equations and to absorb the resulting corrections into renormalized signal (and calibration) solutions. Thereby, the signal inference and calibration problem turns into a problem of solving a single system of ordinary differential equations and can be identified with common resummation techniques used in field theories. We verify the CURE method by applying it to a simplistic toy example and compare it against existent self-calibration schemes, Wiener filter solutions, and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. We conclude that the method is able to keep up in accuracy with the best self-calibration methods and serves as a noniterative alternative to them.

  12. How historical information can improve estimation and prediction of extreme coastal water levels: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulteau, T.; Idier, D.; Lambert, J.; Garcin, M.

    2015-06-01

    The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide-gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces the issue of outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others which increase the uncertainty on the results. In this study, we investigate how historical information, even partial, of past events reported in archives can reduce statistical uncertainties and relativise such outlying observations. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method is developed to tackle this issue. We apply this method to the site of La Rochelle (France), where the storm Xynthia in 2010 generated a water level considered so far as an outlier. Based on 30 years of tide-gauge measurements and 8 historical events, the analysis shows that (1) integrating historical information in the analysis greatly reduces statistical uncertainties on return levels (2) Xynthia's water level no longer appears as an outlier, (3) we could have reasonably predicted the annual exceedance probability of that level beforehand (predictive probability for 2010 based on data until the end of 2009 of the same order of magnitude as the standard estimative probability using data until the end of 2010). Such results illustrate the usefulness of historical information in extreme value analyses of coastal water levels, as well as the relevance of the proposed method to integrate heterogeneous data in such analyses.

  13. Plant responses to climatic extremes: within-species variation equals among-species variation.

    PubMed

    Malyshev, Andrey V; Arfin Khan, Mohammed A S; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Steinbauer, Manuel J; Henry, Hugh A L; Jentsch, Anke; Dengler, Jürgen; Willner, Evelin; Kreyling, Juergen

    2016-01-01

    Within-species and among-species differences in growth responses to a changing climate have been well documented, yet the relative magnitude of within-species vs. among-species variation has remained largely unexplored. This missing comparison impedes our ability to make general predictions of biodiversity change and to project future species distributions using models. We present a direct comparison of among- versus within-species variation in response to three of the main stresses anticipated with climate change: drought, warming, and frost. Two earlier experiments had experimentally induced (i) summer drought and (ii) spring frost for four common European grass species and their ecotypes from across Europe. To supplement existing data, a third experiment was carried out, to compare variation among species from different functional groups to within-species variation. Here, we simulated (iii) winter warming plus frost for four grasses, two nonleguminous, and two leguminous forbs, in addition to eleven European ecotypes of the widespread grass Arrhenatherum elatius. For each experiment, we measured: (i) C/N ratio and biomass, (ii) chlorophyll content and biomass, and (iii) plant greenness, root (15) N uptake, and live and dead tissue mass. Using coefficients of variation (CVs) for each experiment and response parameter, a total of 156 within- vs. among-species comparisons were conducted, comparing within-species variation in each of four species with among-species variation for each seed origin (five countries). Of the six significant differences, within-species CVs were higher than among-species CVs in four cases. Partitioning of variance within each treatment in two of the three experiments showed that within-species variability (ecotypes) could explain an additional 9% of response variation after accounting for the among-species variation. Our observation that within-species variation was generally as high as among-species variation emphasizes the importance of

  14. Psychophysical estimates of cochlear phase response: masking by harmonic complexes.

    PubMed

    Lentz, J J; Leek, M R

    2001-12-01

    Harmonic complexes with identical component frequencies and amplitudes but different phase spectra may be differentially effective as maskers. Such harmonic waveforms, constructed with positive or negative Schroeder phases, have similar envelopes and identical long-term power spectra, but the positive Schroeder-phase waveform is typically a less effective masker than the negative Schroeder-phase waveform. These masking differences have been attributed to an interaction between the masker phase spectrum and the phase characteristic of the basilar membrane. To explore this relationship, the gradient of stimulus phase change across masker bandwidth was varied by systematically altering the Schroeder-phase algorithm. Observers detected a signal tone added in-phase to a single component of a masker whose frequencies ranged from 200 to 5000 Hz, with a fundamental frequency of 100 Hz. For signal frequencies of 1000-4000 Hz, differences in masking across the harmonic complexes could be as large as 5-10 dB for phase gradients changing by only 10%. The phase gradient that resulted in a minimum amount of masking varied with signal frequency, with low frequencies masked least effectively by stimuli with rapidly changing component phases and high frequencies masked by stimuli with more shallow phase gradients. A gammachirp filter was implemented to model these results, predicting the qualitative changes in curvature of the phase-byfrequency function estimated from the empirical data: In some cases, small modifications to the gammachirp filter produced better quantitative predictions of curvature changes across frequency, but this filter, as implemented here, was unable to accurately represent all the data.

  15. [Response and Control Factors of Groundwater to Extreme Weather, Jiguan Cave, Henan Province, China].

    PubMed

    Liu, Xiao; Yang, Yan; Peng, Tao; Zhao, Jing-yao; Ren, Xiao-feng; Zhang, Yin-huan; Nie Xu-dong; Li, Jian-cang; Ling, Xin-you; Zhang, Zhi-qin

    2015-05-01

    Geochemical dynamics of cave water were monitored to unveil its variation and controlling factors from October 2009 to December 2013 in Jiguan Cave,west of Henan province,southeastern coast of the loess plateau. The results showed that: (1) the hydrochemical types of the cave water are HCO(3-)-Ca(2+)-Mg2+ and HCO(3-)-Mg(2+)-Ca2+. HCO(3-) are over 80% of the anions, Ca2+ and Mg2+ are the dominate cations, and ground river keeping in erosion and pool water drips in deposition all the year. (2) Dripping water and pool water in Ji guan cave can respond perfectly to the change of external climate environment, which geochemistry indexes possess the extraordinary seasonal effects. (3) The concentration changes of the Ca2+, Mg2+ , SO4(2-) responded sensitively to annual precipitation change. Ca2+, Mg2+, SO4(2-) rise in waterlogging year and fall in drought year. Because HCO(3-) controlled by CO2 concentration. HCO(3-) concentration showed a unconspicuous response to the change of external climate environment. (4) The concentration changes of Ca2+, Mg2+, SO4(2-) have no obvious seasonal variation and showed a unconspicuous response to the change of external climate environment.

  16. Tumor response estimation in radar-based microwave breast cancer detection.

    PubMed

    Kurrant, Douglas J; Fear, Elise C; Westwick, David T

    2008-12-01

    Radar-based microwave imaging techniques have been proposed for early stage breast cancer detection. A considerable challenge for the successful implementation of these techniques is the reduction of clutter, or components of the signal originating from objects other than the tumor. In particular, the reduction of clutter from the late-time scattered fields is required in order to detect small (subcentimeter diameter) tumors. In this paper, a method to estimate the tumor response contained in the late-time scattered fields is presented. The method uses a parametric function to model the tumor response. A maximum a posteriori estimation approach is used to evaluate the optimal values for the estimates of the parameters. A pattern classification technique is then used to validate the estimation. The ability of the algorithm to estimate a tumor response is demonstrated by using both experimental and simulated data obtained with a tissue sensing adaptive radar system.

  17. Hemodynamic and neurohormonal responses to extreme orthostatic stress in physically fit young adults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grasser, E. K.; Goswami, N.; Rössler, A.; Vrecko, K.; Hinghofer-Szalkay, H.

    2009-04-01

    Blood pressure stability may be jeopardized in astronauts experiencing orthostatic stress. There is disagreement about cardiovascular and endocrine stress responses that emerge when a critical (presyncopal) state is reached. We studied hemodynamic and neurohormonal changes as induced by an orthostatic stress paradigm (head-up tilt combined with lower body negative pressure) that leads to a syncopal endpoint. From supine control to presyncope, heart rate increased by 78% and thoracic impedance by 12%. There was a 49% fall in stroke volume index, 19% in mean arterial blood pressure, 14% in total peripheral resistance index and 11% in plasma volume. Plasma norepinephrine rose by 107, epinephrine by 491, plasma renin activity by 167, and cortisol by 25%. Hemodynamic and hormonal changes of clearly different magnitude emerge in presyncope as compared to supine rest. Additional studies are warranted to reveal the exact time course of orthostatic changes up to syncopal levels.

  18. Phylogenetically Driven Sequencing of Extremely Halophilic Archaea Reveals Strategies for Static and Dynamic Osmo-response

    PubMed Central

    Tritt, Andrew; Larsen, David; Krusor, Megan; Yao, Andrew I.; Wu, Dongying; Madern, Dominique; Eisen, Jonathan A.; Darling, Aaron E.; Facciotti, Marc T.

    2014-01-01

    Organisms across the tree of life use a variety of mechanisms to respond to stress-inducing fluctuations in osmotic conditions. Cellular response mechanisms and phenotypes associated with osmoadaptation also play important roles in bacterial virulence, human health, agricultural production and many other biological systems. To improve understanding of osmoadaptive strategies, we have generated 59 high-quality draft genomes for the haloarchaea (a euryarchaeal clade whose members thrive in hypersaline environments and routinely experience drastic changes in environmental salinity) and analyzed these new genomes in combination with those from 21 previously sequenced haloarchaeal isolates. We propose a generalized model for haloarchaeal management of cytoplasmic osmolarity in response to osmotic shifts, where potassium accumulation and sodium expulsion during osmotic upshock are accomplished via secondary transport using the proton gradient as an energy source, and potassium loss during downshock is via a combination of secondary transport and non-specific ion loss through mechanosensitive channels. We also propose new mechanisms for magnesium and chloride accumulation. We describe the expansion and differentiation of haloarchaeal general transcription factor families, including two novel expansions of the TATA-binding protein family, and discuss their potential for enabling rapid adaptation to environmental fluxes. We challenge a recent high-profile proposal regarding the evolutionary origins of the haloarchaea by showing that inclusion of additional genomes significantly reduces support for a proposed large-scale horizontal gene transfer into the ancestral haloarchaeon from the bacterial domain. The combination of broad (17 genera) and deep (≥5 species in four genera) sampling of a phenotypically unified clade has enabled us to uncover both highly conserved and specialized features of osmoadaptation. Finally, we demonstrate the broad utility of such datasets, for

  19. Response of Jupiter's inner magnetosphere to the solar wind derived from extreme ultraviolet monitoring of the Io plasma torus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murakami, Go; Yoshioka, Kazuo; Yamazaki, Atsushi; Tsuchiya, Fuminori; Kimura, Tomoki; Tao, Chihiro; Kita, Hajime; Kagitani, Masato; Sakanoi, Takeshi; Uemizu, Kazunori; Kasaba, Yasumasa; Yoshikawa, Ichiro; Fujimoto, Masaki

    2016-12-01

    Because Jupiter's magnetosphere is huge and is rotationally dominated, solar wind influence on its inner part has been thought to be negligible. Meanwhile, dawn-dusk asymmetric features of this region have been reported. Presence of dawn-to-dusk electric field is one of the leading explanations of the asymmetry; however, the physical process of generating such an intense electric field still remains unclear. Here we present long and continuous monitoring of the extreme ultraviolet emissions from the Io plasma torus in Jupiter's inner magnetosphere made by the Hisaki satellite between December 2013 and March 2014. We found five occasions where the dusk/dawn brightness ratio was enhanced above 2.5 in response to rapid increase of the solar wind dynamic pressure. The enhancement is achieved as the dusk region brightens and the dawn region dims. The observation indicates that dawn-to-dusk electric field in the inner magnetosphere is enhanced under compressed conditions.

  20. Strain response of thermal barrier coatings captured under extreme engine environments through synchrotron X-ray diffraction.

    PubMed

    Knipe, Kevin; Manero, Albert; Siddiqui, Sanna F; Meid, Carla; Wischek, Janine; Okasinski, John; Almer, Jonathan; Karlsson, Anette M; Bartsch, Marion; Raghavan, Seetha

    2014-07-31

    The mechanical behaviour of thermal barrier coatings in operation holds the key to understanding durability of jet engine turbine blades. Here we report the results from experiments that monitor strains in the layers of a coating subjected to thermal gradients and mechanical loads representing extreme engine environments. Hollow cylindrical specimens, with electron beam physical vapour deposited coatings, were tested with internal cooling and external heating under various controlled conditions. High-energy synchrotron X-ray measurements captured the in situ strain response through the depth of each layer, revealing the link between these conditions and the evolution of local strains. Results of this study demonstrate that variations in these conditions create corresponding trends in depth-resolved strains with the largest effects displayed at or near the interface with the bond coat. With larger temperature drops across the coating, significant strain gradients are seen, which can contribute to failure modes occurring within the layer adjacent to the interface.

  1. Strain response of thermal barrier coatings captured under extreme engine environments through synchrotron X-ray diffraction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knipe, Kevin; Manero, Albert; Siddiqui, Sanna F.; Meid, Carla; Wischek, Janine; Okasinski, John; Almer, Jonathan; Karlsson, Anette M.; Bartsch, Marion; Raghavan, Seetha

    2014-07-01

    The mechanical behaviour of thermal barrier coatings in operation holds the key to understanding durability of jet engine turbine blades. Here we report the results from experiments that monitor strains in the layers of a coating subjected to thermal gradients and mechanical loads representing extreme engine environments. Hollow cylindrical specimens, with electron beam physical vapour deposited coatings, were tested with internal cooling and external heating under various controlled conditions. High-energy synchrotron X-ray measurements captured the in situ strain response through the depth of each layer, revealing the link between these conditions and the evolution of local strains. Results of this study demonstrate that variations in these conditions create corresponding trends in depth-resolved strains with the largest effects displayed at or near the interface with the bond coat. With larger temperature drops across the coating, significant strain gradients are seen, which can contribute to failure modes occurring within the layer adjacent to the interface.

  2. A preliminary estimate of the EUVE cumulative distribution of exposure time on the unit sphere. [Extreme Ultra-Violet Explorer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tang, C. C. H.

    1984-01-01

    A preliminary study of an all-sky coverage of the EUVE mission is given. Algorithms are provided to compute the exposure of the celestial sphere under the spinning telescopes, taking into account that during part of the exposure time the telescopes are blocked by the earth. The algorithms are used to give an estimate of exposure time at different ecliptic latitudes as a function of the angle of field of view of the telescope. Sample coverage patterns are also given for a 6-month mission.

  3. An empirical comparison of effective concentration estimators for evaluating aquatic toxicity test responses

    SciTech Connect

    Bailer, A.J.; Hughes, M.R.; Denton, D.L.; Oris, J.T.

    2000-01-01

    Aquatic toxicity tests are statistically evaluated by either hypothesis testing procedures to derive a no-observed-effect concentration or by inverting regression models to calculate the concentration associated with a specific reduction from the control response. These latter methods can be described as potency estimation methods. Standard US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) potency estimation methods are based on two different techniques. For continuous or count response data, a nominally nonparametric method that assumes monotonic decreasing responses and piecewise linear patterns between successive concentration groups is used. For quantal responses, a probit regression model with a linear dose term is fit. These techniques were compared with a recently developed parametric regression-based estimator, the relative inhibition estimator, RIp. This method is based on fitting generalized linear models, followed by estimation of the concentration associated with a particular decrement relative to control responses. These estimators, with levels of inhibition (p) of 25 and 50%, were applied to a series of chronic toxicity tests in a US EPA region 9 database of reference toxicity tests. Biological responses evaluated in these toxicity tests included the number of young produced in three broods by the water flea (Ceriodaphnia dubia) and germination success and tube length data from the giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera). The greatest discrepancy between the RIp and standard US EPA estimators was observed for C. dubia. The concentration-response pattern for this biological endpoint exhibited nonmonotonicity more frequently than for any of the other endpoint. Future work should consider optimal experimental designs to estimate these quantities, methods for constructing confidence intervals, and simulation studies to explore the behavior of these estimators under known conditions.

  4. ZnO quantum dot-doped graphene/h-BN/GaN-heterostructure ultraviolet photodetector with extremely high responsivity.

    PubMed

    Lu, Yanghua; Wu, Zhiqian; Xu, Wenli; Lin, Shisheng

    2016-12-02

    A ZnO quantum dot  photo-doped graphene/h-BN/GaN-heterostructure ultraviolet photodetector with extremely high responsivity of more than 1915 A W(-1) and detectivity of more than 1.02 × 10(13) Jones (Jones = cm Hz(1/2) W(-1)) has been demonstrated. The interfaced h-BN layer increases the barrier height at the graphene/GaN heterojunction, which decreases the dark current and improves the on/off current ratio of the device. The photo-doping effect increases the barrier height and carrier concentration at the graphene/h-BN/GaN heterojunction, thus the responsivity is improved from 1473 A W(-1) to 1915 A W(-1) and the detectivity is improved from 5.8 × 10(12) to 1.0 × 10(13) Jones. Moreover, all of the responsivity and detectivity values are the highest values among all the graphene-based ultraviolet photodetectors.

  5. Structural and functional responses of extremity veins to long-term gravitational loading or unloading—lessons from animal systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monos, Emil; Raffai, Gábor; Dörnyei, Gabriella; Nádasy, György L.; Fehér, Erzsébet

    2007-02-01

    Long, transparent tubular tilt-cages were developed to maintain experimental rats either in 45∘ head-up (orthostasis model), or in 45∘ head-down body position (antiorthostasis model) for several weeks. In order to study the functional and structural changes in extremity blood vessels, also novel pressure angiograph systems, as well as special quantitative electron microscopic methods were applied. It was found that several adaptive mechanisms are activated in the lower limb superficial veins and microvessels of muscles when an organism is exposed to long-term (1-2 weeks) orthostatic-type gravitational load including a reversible amplification of the pressure-dependent myogenic response, tuning of the myogenic tone by Ca++- and voltage-sensitive K+ channels in humans, augmentation of the intramural sympathetic innervation involving an increased nerve terminal density and synaptic vesicle count with functional remodeling, reorganization of vascular network properties (microvascular rarefaction in muscles, decreased branching angles in superficial veins), and responses of an endothelin and platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) containing vesicle system in the endothelium. On the other hand, when applying long-term head-down tilting, the effects are dichotomous, e.g. it suppresses significantly the pressure-induced myogenic response, however does not diminish the adventitial sympathetic innervation density.

  6. Estimation of Sensitive Proportion by Randomized Response Data in Successive Sampling

    PubMed Central

    Tian, Jiayong

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of estimation for binomial proportions of sensitive or stigmatizing attributes in the population of interest. Randomized response techniques are suggested for protecting the privacy of respondents and reducing the response bias while eliciting information on sensitive attributes. In many sensitive question surveys, the same population is often sampled repeatedly on each occasion. In this paper, we apply successive sampling scheme to improve the estimation of the sensitive proportion on current occasion. PMID:26089958

  7. Measurement Error in Nonparametric Item Response Curve Estimation. Research Report. ETS RR-11-28

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guo, Hongwen; Sinharay, Sandip

    2011-01-01

    Nonparametric, or kernel, estimation of item response curve (IRC) is a concern theoretically and operationally. Accuracy of this estimation, often used in item analysis in testing programs, is biased when the observed scores are used as the regressor because the observed scores are contaminated by measurement error. In this study, we investigate…

  8. Bi-Factor Multidimensional Item Response Theory Modeling for Subscores Estimation, Reliability, and Classification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Md Desa, Zairul Nor Deana

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, there has been increasing interest in estimating and improving subscore reliability. In this study, the multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) and the bi-factor model were combined to estimate subscores, to obtain subscores reliability, and subscores classification. Both the compensatory and partially compensatory MIRT…

  9. A Note on the Reliability Coefficients for Item Response Model-Based Ability Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Seonghoon

    2012-01-01

    Assuming item parameters on a test are known constants, the reliability coefficient for item response theory (IRT) ability estimates is defined for a population of examinees in two different ways: as (a) the product-moment correlation between ability estimates on two parallel forms of a test and (b) the squared correlation between the true…

  10. Evaluating the Robustness of Graded Response Model and Classical Test Theory Parameter Estimates to Deviant Items.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sinar, Evan F.; Zickar, Michael J.

    2002-01-01

    Examined the influence of deviant scale items on item parameter estimates of focal scale items and person parameter estimates through a comparison of item response theory (IRT) and classical test theory (CTT) models. Used Monte Carlo methods to explore results from a pilot investigation of job attitude data. Discusses implications for researchers…

  11. Item Response Theory with Estimation of the Latent Population Distribution Using Spline-Based Densities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Carol M.; Thissen, David

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new method for fitting item response theory models with the latent population distribution estimated from the data using splines. A spline-based density estimation system provides a flexible alternative to existing procedures that use a normal distribution, or a different functional form, for the…

  12. Item Response Theory with Estimation of the Latent Density Using Davidian Curves

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Carol M.; Lin, Nan

    2009-01-01

    Davidian-curve item response theory (DC-IRT) is introduced, evaluated with simulations, and illustrated using data from the Schedule for Nonadaptive and Adaptive Personality Entitlement scale. DC-IRT is a method for fitting unidimensional IRT models with maximum marginal likelihood estimation, in which the latent density is estimated,…

  13. Direct Estimation of Correlation as a Measure of Association Strength Using Multidimensional Item Response Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Wen-Chung

    2004-01-01

    The Pearson correlation is used to depict effect sizes in the context of item response theory. Amultidimensional Rasch model is used to directly estimate the correlation between latent traits. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to investigate whether the population correlation could be accurately estimated and whether the bootstrap method…

  14. A Study of Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Response Time Models in Item Response Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suh, Hongwook

    2010-01-01

    Response time has been regarded as an important source for investigating the relationship between human performance and response speed. It is important to examine the relationship between response time and item characteristics, especially in the perspective of the relationship between response time and various factors that affect examinee's…

  15. Extreme Hypoxic Conditions Induce Selective Molecular Responses and Metabolic Reset in Detached Apple Fruit

    PubMed Central

    Cukrov, Dubravka; Zermiani, Monica; Brizzolara, Stefano; Cestaro, Alessandro; Licausi, Francesco; Luchinat, Claudio; Santucci, Claudio; Tenori, Leonardo; Van Veen, Hans; Zuccolo, Andrea; Ruperti, Benedetto; Tonutti, Pietro

    2016-01-01

    The ripening physiology of detached fruit is altered by low oxygen conditions with profound effects on quality parameters. To study hypoxia-related processes and regulatory mechanisms, apple (Malus domestica, cv Granny Smith) fruit, harvested at commercial ripening, were kept at 1°C under normoxic (control) and hypoxic (0.4 and 0.8 kPa oxygen) conditions for up to 60 days. NMR analyses of cortex tissue identified eight metabolites showing significantly different accumulations between samples, with ethanol and alanine displaying the most pronounced difference between hypoxic and normoxic treatments. A rapid up-regulation of alcohol dehydrogenase and pyruvate-related metabolism (lactate dehydrogenase, pyruvate decarboxylase, alanine aminotransferase) gene expression was detected under both hypoxic conditions with a more pronounced effect induced by the lowest (0.4 kPa) oxygen concentration. Both hypoxic conditions negatively affected ACC synthase and ACC oxidase transcript accumulation. Analysis of RNA-seq data of samples collected after 24 days of hypoxic treatment identified more than 1000 genes differentially expressed when comparing 0.4 vs. 0.8 kPa oxygen concentration samples. Genes involved in cell-wall, minor and major CHO, amino acid and secondary metabolisms, fermentation and glycolysis as well as genes involved in transport, defense responses, and oxidation-reduction appeared to be selectively affected by treatments. The lowest oxygen concentration induced a higher expression of transcription factors belonging to AUX/IAA, WRKY, HB, Zinc-finger families, while MADS box family genes were more expressed when apples were kept under 0.8 kPa oxygen. Out of the eight group VII ERF members present in apple genome, two genes showed a rapid up-regulation under hypoxia, and western blot analysis showed that apple MdRAP2.12 proteins were differentially accumulated in normoxic and hypoxic samples, with the highest level reached under 0.4 kPa oxygen. These data suggest

  16. Ecological Response to Extreme Flow Events in Streams and Rivers: Implications of Climate Change for Aquatic Biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawkins, C. P.; Vander Laan, J. J.; Dhungel, S.; Tarboton, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    We used the USEPA's 2008-2009 National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) data to assess the potential sensitivity of stream biodiversity to both spatial variation in measures of extreme flow and likely changes in extreme flows associated with projected climate change. The NRSA data consisted of macroinvertebrate samples collected at 1313 reference-quality sites. We characterized the hydrologic regimes at each of these sites by developing Random Forest empirical models from long-term (≥ 20 years) daily flow records obtained from 601 gaged USGS stations. These models described spatial variation in 16 flow variables as a function of climate and watershed attributes. Three of the models characterized aspects of extreme flow: the mean number of zero-flow events per year (ZeroDays), the mean number of high-flow events per year (HighDays = number of events per year that exceed the 95th percentile of mean annual flow), and the coefficient of variation of daily flows (CV). We used these models to predict the flow attributes expected at each of the 1313 sites with ecological data. We then built additional Random Forest models that related among-site differences in stream macroinvertebrate taxonomic composition, assemblage richness, and the likelihood of observing individual taxa to the 16 measures of flow regime and other environmental predictors. At the national level, ZeroDays was an important predictor of macroinvertebrate biodiversity: richness declined as ZeroDays increased. A similar pattern was observed when analyses were restricted to lowland and plains streams. For eastern highland streams, HighDays was a better predictor of stream biodiversity than aspects of low flow: richness declined as HighDays increased. For western streams, CV was a better predictor of biodiversity than either ZeroDays or HighDays: biodiversity decreased as CV increased. Empirical models that linked flow attributes to climate change projections imply that flow regime response to climate

  17. Aerospace Materials for Extreme Environments

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-03-07

    AFOSR/RTD Air Force Research Laboratory AEROSPACE MATERIALS FOR EXTREME ENVIRONMENTS Date: 7 March 2013 Report Documentation Page Form...ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for...to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports , 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA

  18. Functional MRI determination of a dose-response relationship to lower extremity neuromuscular electrical stimulation in healthy subjects.

    PubMed

    Smith, Gerald V; Alon, Gad; Roys, Steven R; Gullapalli, Rao P

    2003-05-01

    Although empirical evidence supports the use of neuromuscular electrical stimulation (NMES) to treat physical impairments associated with stroke, the mechanisms underlying the efficacy of this modality are poorly understood. Recent studies have employed functional imaging to investigations of brain responses to median nerve stimulation. These studies suggest a dose-response relationship may exist between selected stimulation parameters and hemodynamic responses in sensorimotor regions. However, substantial gaps exist in this literature. The present study was designed to address these deficiencies. Ten healthy subjects participated. In phase one, four stimulus intensity levels were established: (1). sensory threshold [Th], (2). (MM-Th)x0.333+Th [low-intermediate level, LI], (3). (MM-Th)x0.666+Th [high-intermediate level, HI], and (4). maximal motor (MM). In phase two, subjects were scanned using a spiral-echoplanar imaging technique at each stimulus level. Image sets were analyzed to determine hemodynamic responses at the highest Pearson correlation level ( r) ascertained for each of five areas of interest (AOI): (1). primary sensory, (2). primary motor, (3). cingulate gyrus, (4). thalamus, and (5). cerebellum. ANOVA demonstrated significant main effects for BOLD signal amplitude ( p<0.05) changes in all AOI. Similarly, ANOVA showed significant differences in the volume of activation ( p<0.05) with increasing stimulus intensity in four AOI. Secondary analyses of pooled data showed increasing probabilities of activation at higher stimulus intensities within each AOI. Collectively, these data indicate a dose-response relationship exists between lower extremity NMES and brain activation in specific neural regions. The current results, while limited in their generalizability, are foundational for future studies of interventions using NMES.

  19. Professional ethics in extreme circumstances: responsibilities of attending physicians and healthcare providers in hunger strikes.

    PubMed

    Irmak, Nurbay

    2015-08-01

    Hunger strikes potentially present a serious challenge for attending physicians. Though rare, in certain cases, a conflict can occur between the obligations of beneficence and autonomy. On the one hand, physicians have a duty to preserve life, which entails intervening in a hunger strike before the hunger striker loses his life. On the other hand, physicians' duty to respect autonomy implies that attending physicians have to respect hunger strikers' decisions to refuse nutrition. International medical guidelines state that physicians should follow the strikers' unpressured advance directives. When physicians encounter an unconscious striker, in the absence of reliable advance directives, the guidelines advise physicians to make a decision on the basis of the patient's values, previously expressed wishes, and best interests. I argue that if there are no advance directives and the striker has already lost his competence, the physician has the responsibility to resuscitate the striker. Once the striker regains his decision-making capacity, he should be asked about his decision. If he is determined to continue fasting and refuses treatment, the physician has a moral obligation to respect this decisions and follow his advance directives.

  20. Calculation of Coupled Vibroacoustics Response Estimates from a Library of Available Uncoupled Transfer Function Sets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Andrew; LaVerde, Bruce; Hunt, Ron; Fulcher, Clay; Towner, Robert; McDonald, Emmett

    2012-01-01

    The design and theoretical basis of a new database tool that quickly generates vibroacoustic response estimates using a library of transfer functions (TFs) is discussed. During the early stages of a launch vehicle development program, these response estimates can be used to provide vibration environment specification to hardware vendors. The tool accesses TFs from a database, combines the TFs, and multiplies these by input excitations to estimate vibration responses. The database is populated with two sets of uncoupled TFs; the first set representing vibration response of a bare panel, designated as H(sup s), and the second set representing the response of the free-free component equipment by itself, designated as H(sup c). For a particular configuration undergoing analysis, the appropriate H(sup s) and H(sup c) are selected and coupled to generate an integrated TF, designated as H(sup s +c). This integrated TF is then used with the appropriate input excitations to estimate vibration responses. This simple yet powerful tool enables a user to estimate vibration responses without directly using finite element models, so long as suitable H(sup s) and H(sup c) sets are defined in the database libraries. The paper discusses the preparation of the database tool and provides the assumptions and methodologies necessary to combine H(sup s) and H(sup c) sets into an integrated H(sup s + c). An experimental validation of the approach is also presented.

  1. The Bias Function of the Maximum Likelihood Estimate of Ability for the Dichotomous Response Level.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Samejima, Fumiko

    1993-01-01

    F. Samejima's approximation for the bias function for the maximum likelihood estimate of the latent trait in the general case where item responses are discrete is explored. Observations are made about the behavior of this bias function for the dichotomous response level in general. Empirical examples are given. (SLD)

  2. Consequences of Ignoring Guessing when Estimating the Latent Density in Item Response Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Carol M.

    2008-01-01

    In Ramsay-curve item response theory (RC-IRT), the latent variable distribution is estimated simultaneously with the item parameters. In extant Monte Carlo evaluations of RC-IRT, the item response function (IRF) used to fit the data is the same one used to generate the data. The present simulation study examines RC-IRT when the IRF is imperfectly…

  3. Estimation of Item Response Theory Parameters in the Presence of Missing Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finch, Holmes

    2008-01-01

    Missing data are a common problem in a variety of measurement settings, including responses to items on both cognitive and affective assessments. Researchers have shown that such missing data may create problems in the estimation of item difficulty parameters in the Item Response Theory (IRT) context, particularly if they are ignored. At the same…

  4. Estimation of dose-response models for discrete and continuous data in weed science

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Dose-response analysis is widely used in biological sciences and has application to a variety of risk assessment, bioassay, and calibration problems. In weed science, dose-response methodologies have typically relied on least squares estimation under an assumption of normality. Advances in computati...

  5. An Extension of Least Squares Estimation of IRT Linking Coefficients for the Graded Response Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Seonghoon

    2010-01-01

    The three types (generalized, unweighted, and weighted) of least squares methods, proposed by Ogasawara, for estimating item response theory (IRT) linking coefficients under dichotomous models are extended to the graded response model. A simulation study was conducted to confirm the accuracy of the extended formulas, and a real data study was…

  6. Loss Factor Estimation Using the Impulse Response Decay Method on a Stiffened Structure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cabell, Randolph; Schiller, Noah; Allen, Albert; Moeller, Mark

    2009-01-01

    High-frequency vibroacoustic modeling is typically performed using energy-based techniques such as Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA). Energy models require an estimate of the internal damping loss factor. Unfortunately, the loss factor is difficult to estimate analytically, and experimental methods such as the power injection method can require extensive measurements over the structure of interest. This paper discusses the implications of estimating damping loss factors using the impulse response decay method (IRDM) from a limited set of response measurements. An automated procedure for implementing IRDM is described and then evaluated using data from a finite element model of a stiffened, curved panel. Estimated loss factors are compared with loss factors computed using a power injection method and a manual curve fit. The paper discusses the sensitivity of the IRDM loss factor estimates to damping of connected subsystems and the number and location of points in the measurement ensemble.

  7. Nonlinear functional response parameter estimation in a stochastic predator-prey model.

    PubMed

    Gilioli, Gianni; Pasquali, Sara; Ruggeri, Fabrizio

    2012-01-01

    Parameter estimation for the functional response of predator-prey systems is a critical methodological problem in population ecology. In this paper we consider a stochastic predator-prey system with non-linear Ivlev functional response and propose a method for model parameter estimation based on time series of field data. We tackle the problem of parameter estimation using a Bayesian approach relying on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The efficiency of the method is tested on a set of simulated data. Then, the method is applied to a predator-prey system of importance for Integrated Pest Management and biological control, the pest mite Tetranychus urticae and the predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis. The model is estimated on a dataset obtained from a field survey. Finally, the estimated model is used to forecast predator-prey dynamics in similar fields, with slightly different initial conditions.

  8. Avian responses to an extreme ice storm are determined by a combination of functional traits, behavioural adaptations and habitat modifications.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qiang; Hong, Yongmi; Zou, Fasheng; Zhang, Min; Lee, Tien Ming; Song, Xiangjin; Rao, Jiteng

    2016-03-01

    The extent to which species' traits, behavior and habitat synergistically determine their response to extreme weather events (EWE) remains poorly understood. By quantifying bird and vegetation assemblages before and after the 2008 ice storm in China, combined with interspecific interactions and foraging behaviours, we disentangled whether storm influences avian reassembly directly via functional traits (i.e. behavioral adaptations), or indirectly via habitat variations. We found that overall species richness decreased, with 20 species detected exclusively before the storm, and eight species detected exclusively after. These shifts in bird relative abundance were linked to habitat preferences, dietary guild and flocking behaviours. For instance, forest specialists at higher trophic levels (e.g. understory-insectivores, woodpeckers and kingfishers) were especially vulnerable, whereas open-habitat generalists (e.g. bulbuls) were set to benefit from potential habitat homogenization. Alongside population fluctuations, we found that community reassembly can be rapidly adjusted via foraging plasticity (i.e. increased flocking propensity and reduced perching height). And changes in preferred habitat corresponded to a variation in bird assemblages and traits, as represented by intact canopy cover and high density of large trees. Accurate predictions of community responses to EWE are crucial to understanding ecosystem disturbances, thus linking species-oriented traits to a coherent analytical framework.

  9. Avian responses to an extreme ice storm are determined by a combination of functional traits, behavioural adaptations and habitat modifications

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Qiang; Hong, Yongmi; Zou, Fasheng; Zhang, Min; Lee, Tien Ming; Song, Xiangjin; Rao, Jiteng

    2016-01-01

    The extent to which species’ traits, behavior and habitat synergistically determine their response to extreme weather events (EWE) remains poorly understood. By quantifying bird and vegetation assemblages before and after the 2008 ice storm in China, combined with interspecific interactions and foraging behaviours, we disentangled whether storm influences avian reassembly directly via functional traits (i.e. behavioral adaptations), or indirectly via habitat variations. We found that overall species richness decreased, with 20 species detected exclusively before the storm, and eight species detected exclusively after. These shifts in bird relative abundance were linked to habitat preferences, dietary guild and flocking behaviours. For instance, forest specialists at higher trophic levels (e.g. understory-insectivores, woodpeckers and kingfishers) were especially vulnerable, whereas open-habitat generalists (e.g. bulbuls) were set to benefit from potential habitat homogenization. Alongside population fluctuations, we found that community reassembly can be rapidly adjusted via foraging plasticity (i.e. increased flocking propensity and reduced perching height). And changes in preferred habitat corresponded to a variation in bird assemblages and traits, as represented by intact canopy cover and high density of large trees. Accurate predictions of community responses to EWE are crucial to understanding ecosystem disturbances, thus linking species-oriented traits to a coherent analytical framework. PMID:26929387

  10. The Dynamic Response of Marine Life to Extreme Temperature and Low Oxygen Events Following the End-Permian Mass Extinction.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pietsch, C.; Bottjer, D. J.

    2014-12-01

    The end-Permian mass extinction was the most devastating taxonomic and ecological crisis in the history of life on Earth. The recovery lasted 5 My making it the longest in geologic history, although the cause of the delay is still heavily debated. We find that additional environmental changes during the recovery interval reset the attempts that marine communities made toward ecological complexity, resulting in the overall appearance of a stagnant recovery. The extinction mechanisms during the end-Permian include extreme temperature change and low oxygen environments resulting from the volcanic emission of carbon dioxide and other toxic gasses to the atmosphere. The biotic response to ancient environmental change is a direct analog for the ecological impacts of modern anthropogenic climate change. We applied an ecological recovery rubric to benthic, sea floor dwelling, communities throughout the Early Triassic recovery in two major ocean basins. Newly collected bulk fossil data from the Moenkopi and Thaynes Formations from the Southwest US and the Werfen Formation in Italy were analyzed along with literature data. In Italy, directly following the extinction, low oxygen environments prevented an ecological rebound. Once low oxygen conditions receded, 600 kyr after the extinction, taxonomic diversity, fossil body size, and trace fossil complexity rebounded. A little more than 1 My into the Early Triassic, an extreme temperature event resulted in a reset of community complexity in both Italy and the Southwest US. The body size of gastropods and the repopulation of echinoderms were significantly inhibited as was trace fossil complexity. Low oxygen conditions that developed in the last ~2My of the Early Triassic limited diversity and body size in the Southwest United States. The stagnant recovery is re-interpreted as dynamic resets and rapid rebounds driven by environmental perturbations throughout the Early Triassic.

  11. Population and osmoregulatory responses of a euryhaline fish to extreme salinity fluctuations in coastal lagoons of the Coorong, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wedderburn, Scotte D.; Bailey, Colin P.; Delean, Steven; Paton, David C.

    2016-01-01

    River flows and salinity are key factors structuring fish assemblages in estuaries. The osmoregulatory ability of a fish determines its capacity to tolerate rising salt levels when dispersal is unfeasible. Estuarine fishes can tolerate minor fluctuations in salinity, but a relatively small number of species in a few families can inhabit extreme hypersaline waters. The Murray-Darling Basin drains an extensive area of south-eastern Australia and river flows end at the mouth of the River Murray. The system is characterized by erratic rainfall and highly variable flows which have been reduced by intensive river regulation and water extraction. The Coorong is a coastal lagoon system extending some 110 km south-eastwards from the mouth. It is an inverted estuary with a salinity gradient that typically ranges from estuarine to triple that of sea water. Hypersalinity in the southern region suits a select suite of biota, including the smallmouth hardyhead Atherinosoma microstoma - a small-bodied, euryhaline fish with an annual life cycle. The population response of A. microstoma in the Coorong was examined during a period of considerable hydrological variation and extreme salinity fluctuations (2001-2014), and the findings were related to its osmoregulatory ability. Most notably, the species was extirpated from over 50% of its range during four continuous years without river flows when salinities exceeded 120 (2007-2010). These salinities exceeded the osmoregulatory ability of A. microstoma. Substantial river flows that reached the Coorong in late 2010 and continued into 2011 led salinities to fall below 100 throughout the Coorong by January 2012. Subsequently, A. microstoma recovered to its former range by January 2012. The findings show that the consequences of prolonged periods of insufficient river flows to temperate inverted estuaries will include substantial declines in the range of highly euryhaline fishes, which also may have wider ecological consequences.

  12. β-Adrenergic response is counteracted by extremely-low-frequency pulsed electromagnetic fields in beating cardiomyocytes.

    PubMed

    Cornacchione, Marisa; Pellegrini, Manuela; Fassina, Lorenzo; Mognaschi, Maria Evelina; Di Siena, Sara; Gimmelli, Roberto; Ambrosino, Paolo; Soldovieri, Maria Virginia; Taglialatela, Maurizio; Gianfrilli, Daniele; Isidori, Andrea M; Lenzi, Andrea; Naro, Fabio

    2016-09-01

    Proper β-adrenergic signaling is indispensable for modulating heart frequency. Studies on extremely-low-frequency pulsed electromagnetic field (ELF-PEMF) effects in the heart beat function are contradictory and no definitive conclusions were obtained so far. To investigate the interplay between ELF-PEMF exposure and β-adrenergic signaling, cultures of primary murine neonatal cardiomyocytes and of sinoatrial node were exposed to ELF-PEMF and short and long-term effects were evaluated. The ELF-PEMF generated a variable magnetic induction field of 0-6mT at a frequency of 75Hz. Exposure to 3mT ELF-PEMF induced a decrease of contraction rate, Ca(2+) transients, contraction force, and energy consumption both under basal conditions and after β-adrenergic stimulation in neonatal cardiomyocytes. ELF-PEMF exposure inhibited β-adrenergic response in sinoatrial node (SAN) region. ELF-PEMF specifically modulated β2 adrenergic receptor response and the exposure did not modify the increase of contraction rate after adenylate cyclase stimulation by forskolin. In HEK293T cells transfected with β1 or β2 adrenergic receptors, ELF-PEMF exposure induced a rapid and selective internalization of β2 adrenergic receptor. The β-adrenergic signaling, was reduced trough Gi protein by ELF-PEMF exposure since the phosphorylation level of phospholamban and the PI3K pathway were impaired after isoproterenol stimulation in neonatal cardiomyocytes. Long term effects of ELF-PEMF exposure were assessed in cultures of isolated cardiomyocytes. ELF-PEMF counteracts cell size increase, the generation of binucleated of cardiomyocytes and prevents the up-regulation of hypertrophic markers after β-adrenergic stimulation, indicating an inhibition of cell growth and maturation. These data show that short and long term exposure to ELF-PEMF induces a reduction of cardiac β-adrenergic response at molecular, functional and adaptative levels.

  13. A Novel Methodology to Estimate the Treatment Effect in Presence of Highly Variable Placebo Response

    PubMed Central

    Gomeni, Roberto; Goyal, Navin; Bressolle, Françoise; Fava, Maurizio

    2015-01-01

    One of the main reasons for the inefficiency of multicenter randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in depression is the excessively high level of placebo response. The aim of this work was to propose a novel methodology to analyze RCTs based on the assumption that centers with high placebo response are less informative than the other centers for estimating the ‘true' treatment effect (TE). A linear mixed-effect modeling approach for repeated measures (MMRM) was used as a reference approach. The new method for estimating TE was based on a nonlinear longitudinal modeling of clinical scores (NLMMRM). NLMMRM estimates TE by associating a weighting factor to the data collected in each center. The weight was defined by the posterior probability of detecting a clinically relevant difference between active treatment and placebo at that center. Data from five RCTs in depression were used to compare the performance of MMRM with NLMMRM. The results of the analyses showed an average improvement of ~15% in the TE estimated with NLMMRM when the center effect was included in the analyses. Opposite results were observed with MMRM: TE estimate was reduced by ~4% when the center effect was considered as covariate in the analysis. The novel NLMMRM approach provides a tool for controlling the confounding effect of high placebo response, to increase signal detection and to provide a more reliable estimate of the ‘true' TE by controlling false negative results associated with excessively high placebo response. PMID:25895454

  14. Non-parametric estimators of a monotonic dose-response curve and bootstrap confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    Dilleen, Maria; Heimann, Günter; Hirsch, Ian

    2003-03-30

    In this paper we consider study designs which include a placebo and an active control group as well as several dose groups of a new drug. A monotonically increasing dose-response function is assumed, and the objective is to estimate a dose with equivalent response to the active control group, including a confidence interval for this dose. We present different non-parametric methods to estimate the monotonic dose-response curve. These are derived from the isotonic regression estimator, a non-negative least squares estimator, and a bias adjusted non-negative least squares estimator using linear interpolation. The different confidence intervals are based upon an approach described by Korn, and upon two different bootstrap approaches. One of these bootstrap approaches is standard, and the second ensures that resampling is done from empiric distributions which comply with the order restrictions imposed. In our simulations we did not find any differences between the two bootstrap methods, and both clearly outperform Korn's confidence intervals. The non-negative least squares estimator yields biased results for moderate sample sizes. The bias adjustment for this estimator works well, even for small and moderate sample sizes, and surprisingly outperforms the isotonic regression method in certain situations.

  15. Cropland responses to extreme winter temperature events: results from a manipulation experiment in north-eastern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.

    2011-12-01

    In the last years, several studies has focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to climate warming. Most of them have been conducted on natural ecosystems (forests or grasslands), but few have considered intensively managed ecosystems such as croplands despite of their global extension. In particular, extreme events, such as temperature changes outside the growing season (winter) when soil is not covered by plants, can have a strong impact on soil respiration, residues decomposition, yield and overall net biome production (NBP). In this study, we investigated the response of soil respiration (total and heterotrophic), aboveground NPP, yield and NBP on a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) due to a manipulated warmer or cooler winter. The experiment was carried out in Beano (46°00' N 13°01'E, Italy). Soil albedo and soil temperature were manipulated by covering soil surface during late winter with a layer of inert ceramized silica gravel. We tested three treatments with three replicates each: cooling (Co; white gravel), warming (W; black gravel), mix (M; black and white 4:1 gravel) and control (C; bare soil). An automated soil respiration system measured continuously total soil CO2 efflux across all the year and heterotrophic respiration after sowing in root exclusion subplots. Additionally, soil temperature profiles (0, 2.5, 5 and 10 cm depth), soil water content (between 5 and 10 cm depth) were monitored in each plot. After sowing, soybean phenological phases were periodically assessed and final yield was measured in each plot. Preliminary results showed a significant change in upper soil temperature between gravel application and canopy closure (maximum of + 5.8 °C and - 6.8 °C in the warming and cooling treatments, respectively). However, warming had only a transient effect on soil respiration (increase) before sowing. Thereafter, as soon as fresh organic matter availability decreased, soil respiration rate decreased and annual budget was not

  16. Cropland responses to extreme winter temperature events: results from a manipulation experiment in north-eastern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.

    2012-04-01

    In the last years, several studies has focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to climate warming. Most of them have been conducted on natural ecosystems (forests or grasslands), but few have considered intensively managed ecosystems such as croplands despite of their global extension. In particular, extreme events, such as temperature changes outside the growing season (winter) when soil is not covered by plants, can have a strong impact on soil respiration, residues decomposition, yield and overall net biome production (NBP). In this study, we investigated the response of soil respiration (total and heterotrophic), aboveground NPP, yield and NBP on a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) due to a manipulated warmer or cooler winter. The experiment was carried out in Beano (46°00' N 13°01'E, Italy). Soil albedo and soil temperature were manipulated by covering soil surface during late winter with a layer of inert ceramized silica gravel. We tested three treatments with three replicates each: cooling (Co; white gravel), warming (W; black gravel), mix (M; black and white 4:1 gravel) and control (C; bare soil). An automated soil respiration system measured continuously total soil CO2 efflux across all the year and heterotrophic respiration after sowing in root exclusion subplots. Additionally, soil temperature profiles (0, 2.5, 5 and 10 cm depth), soil water content (between 5 and 10 cm depth) were monitored in each plot. After sowing, soybean phenological phases were periodically assessed and final yield was measured in each plot. Results showed a significant change in upper soil temperature between gravel application and canopy closure (maximum of + 5.8 °C and - 6.8 °C in the warming and cooling treatments, respectively). However, warming had only a transient effect on soil respiration (increase) before sowing. Thereafter, as soon as fresh organic matter availability decreased, soil respiration rate decreased and annual budget was not significantly different

  17. Estimation of seismic response of buildings with a few accelerometers without input data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suzuki, Yu; Mita, Akira

    2016-04-01

    To assess the health of buildings, maximum inter-story drift angle is recognized as an important indicator. If we have to estimate maximum inter-story drift angle very precisely, we need to install accelerometers on all floors. However, it is not realistic due to the cost. In many methods to estimate the response using small number of accelerometers, the excitation (input) is assumed to be available. However, in some cases, some sensors including the input sensor may not be available. Thus, in this paper, we propose a method for the estimating inter-story drift angle using small number of accelerometers without knowing input information. The proposed method is based on two assumptions. One is that the response is represented by the superposition of the response of only lower modes. The other is that mode vectors and participation factors are available from the structural design model. Based on the assumption, first, we estimate modal frequencies and damping ratios using the subspace method from obtained acceleration data. Second, we decompose observed acceleration data to each mode by solving simultaneous equations using pseudo-inverse matrix. Third, we calculate mode response by focusing on the vibration equation of each mode. It was verified that this method could successfully estimate the modal response as well as the inter-story drift angles.

  18. Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation Post-Stroke Upper Extremity Motor Recovery Studies Exhibit a Dose–Response Relationship

    PubMed Central

    Chhatbar, Pratik Y.; Ramakrishnan, Viswanathan; Kautz, Steven; George, Mark S.; Adams, Robert J.; Feng, Wuwei

    2015-01-01

    Background and purpose Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) has shown mixed results in post-stroke motor recovery, possibly because of tDCS dose differences. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to explore whether the outcome has a dose–response relationship with various dose-related parameters. Methods The literature was searched for double-blind, randomized, sham-controlled clinical trials investigating the role of tDCS (≥5 sessions) in post-stroke motor recovery as measured by the Fugl-Meyer Upper Extremity (FM-UE) scale. Improvements in FM-UE scores were compared between active and sham groups by calculating standardized mean differences (Hedge’s g) to derive a summary effect size. Inverse-variance-weighted linear meta-regression across individual studies was performed between various tDCS parameters and Hedge’s g to test for dose–response relationships. Results Eight studies with total of 213 stroke subjects were included. Summary Hedge’s g was statistically significant in favor of the active group (Hedge’s g = 0.61, p = 0.02) suggesting moderate effect. Specifically, studies that used bihemispheric tDCS montage (Hedge’s g = 1.30, p = 0.08) or that recruited chronic stroke patients (Hedge’s g = 1.23, p = 0.02) showed large improvements in the active group. A positive dose–response relationship was found with current density (p = 0.017) and charge density (p = 0.004), but not with current amplitude. Moreover, a negative dose–response relationship was found with electrode size (p < 0.001, smaller electrodes were more effective). Conclusions Our meta-analysis and meta-regression results suggest superior motor recovery in the active group when compared to the sham group and dose–response relationships relating to electrode size, charge density and current density. These results need to be confirmed in future dedicated studies. PMID:26433609

  19. A strategy to model nonmonotonic dose-response curve and estimate IC50.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Hui; Holden-Wiltse, Jeanne; Wang, Jiong; Liang, Hua

    2013-01-01

    The half-maximal inhibitory concentration IC[Formula: see text] is an important pharmacodynamic index of drug effectiveness. To estimate this value, the dose response relationship needs to be established, which is generally achieved by fitting monotonic sigmoidal models. However, recent studies on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) mutants developing resistance to antiviral drugs show that the dose response curve may not be monotonic. Traditional models can fail for nonmonotonic data and ignore observations that may be of biologic significance. Therefore, we propose a nonparametric model to describe the dose response relationship and fit the curve using local polynomial regression. The nonparametric approach is shown to be promising especially for estimating the IC[Formula: see text] of some HIV inhibitory drugs, in which there is a dose-dependent stimulation of response for mutant strains. This model strategy may be applicable to general pharmacologic, toxicologic, or other biomedical data that exhibits a nonmonotonic dose response relationship for which traditional parametric models fail.

  20. Parameterizing dose-response models to estimate relative potency functions directly.

    PubMed

    Dinse, Gregg E; Umbach, David M

    2012-10-01

    Many comparative analyses of toxicity assume that the potency of a test chemical relative to a reference chemical is constant, but employing such a restrictive assumption uncritically may generate misleading conclusions. Recent efforts to characterize non-constant relative potency rely on relative potency functions and estimate them secondarily after fitting dose-response models for the test and reference chemicals. We study an alternative approach of specifying a relative potency model a priori and estimating it directly using the dose-response data from both chemicals. We consider a power function in dose as a relative potency model and find that it keeps the two chemicals' dose-response functions within the same family of models for families typically used in toxicology. When differences in the response limits for the test and reference chemicals are attributable to the chemicals themselves, the older two-stage approach is the more convenient. When differences in response limits are attributable to other features of the experimental protocol or when response limits do not differ, the direct approach is straightforward to apply with nonlinear regression methods and simplifies calculation of simultaneous confidence bands. We illustrate the proposed approach using Hill models with dose-response data from U.S. National Toxicology Program bioassays. Though not universally applicable, this method of estimating relative potency functions directly can be profitably applied to a broad family of dose-response models commonly used in toxicology.

  1. Simple and Fast Continuous Estimation Method of Respiratory Frequency During Sleep using the Number of Extreme Points of Heart Rate Time Series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoshida, Yutaka; Yokoyama, Kiyoko; Ishii, Naohiro

    It is reported that frequency component of approximately 0.25Hz of heart rate time series (RSA) is corresponding to the respiratory frequency. In this paper, we proposed that continuous estimation method of respiratory fequency during sleep using the number of extreme points of heart rate time series in real time. Equation for calculation of the method is very simple and the method can continuously calculate frequency by window width of about 18 beats. To evaluate accuracy of proposal method, RSA frequency was calculated using proposal method from the heart rate time series during supine rest. Result, minimum error rate was observed when RSA had time lag for about 11s and error rate was about 13.8%. Result of estimating RSA frequency time series during sleep, it varied regularly during non-REM and varied irregularly during REM. This result is similar as report of previous study about respiratory variability during sleep. Therefore, it is considered that proposal method possible to apply respiratory monitoring system during sleep.

  2. Simplified Estimating Method for Shock Response Spectrum Envelope of V-Band Clamp Separation Shock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iwasa, Takashi; Shi, Qinzhong

    A simplified estimating method for the Shock Response Spectrum (SRS) envelope at the spacecraft interface near the V-band clamp separation device has been established. This simplified method is based on the pyroshock analysis method with a single degree of freedom (D.O.F) model proposed in our previous paper. The parameters required in the estimating method are only geometrical information of the interface and a tension of the V-band clamp. According to the use of these parameters, a simplified calculation of the SRS magnitude at the knee frequency is newly proposed. By comparing the estimation results with actual pyroshock test results, it was verified that the SRS envelope estimated with the simplified method appropriately covered the pyroshock test data of the actual space satellite systems except some specific high frequency responses.

  3. A method to estimate cow potential and subsequent responses to energy and protein supply according to stage of lactation.

    PubMed

    Daniel, J B; Friggens, N C; Van Laar, H; Ferris, C P; Sauvant, D

    2017-03-02

    Milk responses to dietary change are influenced by the relative production level, that is, the distance between observed production and potential production. The closer the animal is to its potential, the smaller the expected response is to extra nutrients. Therefore, the aim of this work was to provide a method to quantify cow potential, to estimate subsequent responses to changes in nutrient supply. The observed efficiencies in net energy for lactation (NEL) and metabolizable protein (MP) are proposed as a basis to estimate the relative production level of the animal. The rationale for using NEL and MP efficiency (ratios of milk energy yield/NEL above maintenance supply and milk protein yield/MP above maintenance supply) builds on the uniformity of the observed relationships between size of the milk responses and extra NEL supply and MP supply, when centered on a given efficiency. From there, a pivot nutritional situation where MP and NEL efficiency are 0.67 and 1.00, respectively, was defined, from which milk responses could be derived across animals varying in production potential. An implicit assumption of using response equations centered on reference efficiency pivots is that the size of the response to a fixed change in nutrient supply, relative to the pivot, is identical for animals with different production capacities. The proposed approach was evaluated with 2 independent data sets, where different dietary treatments were applied during the whole lactation. In these data sets, MP and NEL above maintenance supply were calculated weekly using the recently updated INRA Systali feed units system. Differences in NEL and MP supply above maintenance between the extreme dietary treatments were large, on average 667 g of MP/d and 13 MJ of NEL/d (3.11 Mcal/d) in the first data set, and 513 g of MP/d and 29 MJ of NEL/d (6.93 Mcal/d) for the second data set. Milk energy yield and milk component yields were predicted with root mean square prediction errors between 7

  4. Climate change impacts: The challenge of quantifying multi-factor causation, multi-component responses, and leveraging from extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Field, C. B.

    2012-12-01

    Modeling climate change impacts is challenging for a variety of reasons. Some of these are related to causation. A weather or climate event is rarely the sole cause of an impact, and, for many impacts, social, economic, cultural, or ecological factors may play a larger role than climate. Other challenges are related to outcomes. Consequences of an event are often most severe when several kinds of responses interact, typically in unexpected ways. Many kinds of consequences are difficult to quantify, especially when they include a mix of market, cultural, personal, and ecological values. In addition, scale can be tremendously important. Modest impacts over large areas present very different challenges than severe but very local impacts. Finally, impacts may respond non-linearly to forcing, with behavior that changes qualitatively at one or more thresholds and with unexpected outcomes in extremes. Modeling these potentially complex interactions between drivers and impacts presents one set of challenges. Evaluating the models presents another. At least five kinds of approaches can contribute to the evaluation of impact models designed to provide insights in multi-driver, multi-responder, multi-scale, and extreme-driven contexts, even though none of these approaches is a complete or "silver-bullet" solution. The starting point for much of the evaluation in this space is case studies. Case studies can help illustrate links between processes and scales. They can highlight factors that amplify or suppress sensitivity to climate drivers, and they can suggest the consequences of intervening at different points. While case studies rarely provide concrete evidence about mechanisms, they can help move a mechanistic case from circumstantial to sound. Novel approaches to data collection, including crowd sourcing, can potentially provide tools and the number of relevant examples to develop case studies as statistically robust data sources. A critical condition for progress in this

  5. [Effect of the extremely weak alternating magnetic fields on the regeneration of planarians and the gravitropic response of plants].

    PubMed

    Belova, N A; Ermakov, A M; Znobishcheva, A V; Skrebnitskaia, L K; Lednev, V V

    2010-01-01

    The influence of extremely weak alternating magnetic fields (EW AMF) directed colinearly to the static Earth magnetic field on the rate of regeneration of planarians and the rate of gravitropic response in the stem segments of flax has been studied. The value of bioeffects of EW AMF is determined by the parameter gamma B(AC)/f, where y is the gyromagnetic ratio of the magnetic moments induced by the orbital movements of electrons in atoms, and B(AC) and f correspond to magnetic induction and frequency of the alternating magnetic component. It was shown that the magnitude of bioeffects depends on the amplitude (at fixed 1000 Hz - frequency) and frequency (at fixed 192 nT - amplitude) of the alternating component. Maxima of bioeffects are observed at gamma B(AC)/f = 0.9; 2.75, and minor maxima gamma B(AC)/f = 4.5; 6.1. The bioeffects are absent at gamma B(AC)/f = 1.8, 3.8, 5.3, 6.7. The positions of the maxima and minima of bioeffects correspond to the theoretical prediction (at gamma = 14000 Hz/microT). Primary targets for the EW AMF of this type are the magnetic moments induced by the orbital movements of electrons in atoms.

  6. Executive functions in extremely low birth weight and late-preterm preschoolers: effects on working memory and response inhibition.

    PubMed

    Baron, Ida Sue; Kerns, Kimberly A; Müller, Ulrich; Ahronovich, Margot D; Litman, Fern R

    2012-01-01

    Executive function (EF) refers to fundamental capacities that underlie more complex cognition and have ecological relevance across the individual's lifespan. However, emerging executive functions have rarely been studied in young preterm children (age 3) whose critical final stages of fetal development are interrupted by their early birth. We administered four novel touch-screen computerized measures of working memory and inhibition to 369 participants born between 2004 and 2006 (52 Extremely Low Birth Weight [ELBW]; 196 late preterm; 121 term-born). ELBW performed worse than term-born on simple and complex working memory and inhibition tasks and had the highest percentage of incomplete performance on a continuous performance test. The latter finding indicates developmental immaturity and the ELBW group's most at-risk preterm status. Additionally, late-preterm participants performed worse compared with term-born on measures of complex working memory but did not differ from those term-born on response inhibition measures. These results are consistent with a recent literature that identifies often subtle but detectable neurocognitive deficits in late-preterm children. Our results support the development and standardization of computerized touch-screen measures to assess EF subcomponent abilities during the formative preschool period. Such measures may be useful to monitor the developmental trajectory of critical executive function abilities in preterm children, and their use is necessary for timely recognition of deficit and application of appropriate interventional strategies.

  7. Fifty hertz extremely low-frequency magnetic field exposure elicits redox and trophic response in rat-cortical neurons.

    PubMed

    Di Loreto, Silvia; Falone, Stefano; Caracciolo, Valentina; Sebastiani, Pierluigi; D'Alessandro, Antonella; Mirabilio, Alessandro; Zimmitti, Vincenzo; Amicarelli, Fernanda

    2009-05-01

    Large research activity has raised around the mechanisms of interaction between extremely low-frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MFs) and biological systems. ELF-MFs may interfere with chemical reactions involving reactive oxygen species (ROS), thus facilitating oxidative damages in living cells. Cortical neurons are particularly susceptible to oxidative stressors and are also highly dependent on the specific factors and proteins governing neuronal development, activity and survival. The aim of the present work was to investigate the effects of exposures to two different 50 Hz sinusoidal ELF-MFs intensities (0.1 and 1 mT) in maturing rat cortical neurons' major anti-oxidative enzymatic and non-enzymatic cellular protection systems, membrane peroxidative damage, as well as growth factor, and cytokine expression pattern. Briefly, our results showed that ELF-MFs affected positively the cell viability and concomitantly reduced the levels of apoptotic death in rat neuronal primary cultures, with no significant effects on the main anti-oxidative defences. Interestingly, linear regression analysis suggested a positive correlation between reduced glutathione (GSH) and ROS levels in 1 mT MF-exposed cells. On this basis, our hypothesis is that GSH could play an important role in the antioxidant defence towards the ELF-MF-induced redox challenge. Moreover, the GSH-based cellular response was achieved together with a brain-derived neurotrophic factor over-expression as well as with the interleukin 1beta-dependent regulation of pro-survival signaling pathways after ELF-MF exposure.

  8. Stationary variational estimates for the effective response and field fluctuations in nonlinear composites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponte Castañeda, Pedro

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents a variational method for estimating the effective constitutive response of composite materials with nonlinear constitutive behavior. The method is based on a stationary variational principle for the macroscopic potential in terms of the corresponding potential of a linear comparison composite (LCC) whose properties are the trial fields in the variational principle. When used in combination with estimates for the LCC that are exact to second order in the heterogeneity contrast, the resulting estimates for the nonlinear composite are also guaranteed to be exact to second-order in the contrast. In addition, the new method allows full optimization with respect to the properties of the LCC, leading to estimates that are fully stationary and exhibit no duality gaps. As a result, the effective response and field statistics of the nonlinear composite can be estimated directly from the appropriately optimized linear comparison composite. By way of illustration, the method is applied to a porous, isotropic, power-law material, and the results are found to compare favorably with earlier bounds and estimates. However, the basic ideas of the method are expected to work for broad classes of composites materials, whose effective response can be given appropriate variational representations, including more general elasto-plastic and soft hyperelastic composites and polycrystals.

  9. Estimating the predictive quality of dose-response after model selection.

    PubMed

    Hu, Chuanpu; Dong, Yingwen

    2007-07-20

    Prediction of dose-response is important in dose selection in drug development. As the true dose-response shape is generally unknown, model selection is frequently used, and predictions based on the final selected model. Correctly assessing the quality of the predictions requires accounting for the uncertainties caused by the model selection process, which has been difficult. Recently, a new approach called data perturbation has emerged. It allows important predictive characteristics be computed while taking model selection into consideration. We study, through simulation, the performance of data perturbation in estimating standard error of parameter estimates and prediction errors. Data perturbation was found to give excellent prediction error estimates, although at times large Monte Carlo sizes were needed to obtain good standard error estimates. Overall, it is a useful tool to characterize uncertainties in dose-response predictions, with the potential of allowing more accurate dose selection in drug development. We also look at the influence of model selection on estimation bias. This leads to insights into candidate model choices that enable good dose-response prediction.

  10. Summary of methods for calculating dynamic lateral stability and response and for estimating aerodynamic stability derivatives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Campbell, John P; Mckinney, Marion O

    1952-01-01

    A summary of methods for making dynamic lateral stability and response calculations and for estimating the aerodynamic stability derivatives required for use in these calculations is presented. The processes of performing calculations of the time histories of lateral motions, of the period and damping of these motions, and of the lateral stability boundaries are presented as a series of simple straightforward steps. Existing methods for estimating the stability derivatives are summarized and, in some cases, simple new empirical formulas are presented. Detailed estimation methods are presented for low-subsonic-speed conditions but only a brief discussion and a list of references are given for transonic and supersonic speed conditions.

  11. Rapid estimation of frequency response functions by close-range photogrammetry

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tripp, J. S.

    1985-01-01

    The accuracy of a rapid method which estimates the frequency response function from stereoscopic dynamic data is computed. It is shown that reversal of the order of the operations of coordinate transformation and Fourier transformation, which provides a significant increase in computational speed, introduces error. A portion of the error, proportional to the perturbation components normal to the camera focal planes, cannot be eliminated. The remaining error may be eliminated by proper scaling of frequency data prior to coordinate transformation. Methods are developed for least squares estimation of the full 3x3 frequency response matrix for a three dimensional structure.

  12. Windowpane flounder (Scophthalmus aquosus) and winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) responses to cold temperature extremes in a Northwest Atlantic estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilber, Dara H.; Clarke, Douglas G.; Alcoba, Catherine M.; Gallo, Jenine

    2016-01-01

    The effect of climate variability on flatfish includes not only the effects of warming on sensitive life history stages, but also impacts from more frequent or unseasonal extreme cold temperatures. Cold weather events can affect the overwintering capabilities of flatfish near their low temperature range limits. We examined the responses of two flatfish species, the thin-bodied windowpane (Scophthalmus aquosus) and cold-tolerant winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus), to variable winter temperatures in a Northwest Atlantic estuary using abundance and size data collected during a monitoring study, the Aquatic Biological Survey, conducted from 2002 to 2010. Winter and spring abundances of small (50 to 120 mm total length) juvenile windowpane were positively correlated with adult densities (spawning stock) and fall temperatures (thermal conditions experienced during post-settlement development for the fall-spawned cohort) of the previous year. Windowpane abundances in the estuary were significantly reduced and the smallest size class was nearly absent after several consecutive years with cold (minimum temperatures < 1 °C) winters. Interannual variation in winter flounder abundances was unrelated to the severity of winter temperatures. A Paulik diagram illustrates strong positive correlations between annual abundances of sequential winter flounder life history stages (egg, larval, Age-1 juvenile, and adult male) within the estuary, reflecting residency within the estuary through their first year of life. Temperature variables representing conditions during winter flounder larval and post-settlement development were not significant factors in multiple regression models exploring factors that affect juvenile abundances. Likewise, densities of predators known to consume winter flounder eggs and/or post-settlement juveniles were not significantly related to interannual variation in winter flounder juvenile abundances. Colder estuarine temperatures through the

  13. Inhibitory Response Capacities of Bilateral Lower and Upper Extremities in Children with Developmental Coordination Disorder in Endogenous and Exogenous Orienting Modes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tsai, Chia-Liang; Yu, Yi-Kai; Chen, Yung-Jung; Wu, Sheng-Kuang

    2009-01-01

    This study was designed to investigate separately the inhibitory response capacity and the lateralization effect in children with developmental coordination disorder (DCD) in the endogenous and exogenous modes of orienting attention. Children with DCD on the lower extremities (DCD-LEs), along with age-matched controls, completed four tasks that…

  14. Response of precipitation extremes to idealized global warming in an aqua-planet climate model: Towards robust projection across different horizontal resolutions

    SciTech Connect

    Li, F.; Collins, W.D.; Wehner, M.F.; Williamson, D.L.; Olson, J.G.

    2011-04-15

    Current climate models produce quite heterogeneous projections for the responses of precipitation extremes to future climate change. To help understand the range of projections from multimodel ensembles, a series of idealized 'aquaplanet' Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) runs have been performed with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM3. These runs have been analysed to identify the effects of horizontal resolution on precipitation extreme projections under two simple global warming scenarios. We adopt the aquaplanet framework for our simulations to remove any sensitivity to the spatial resolution of external inputs and to focus on the roles of model physics and dynamics. Results show that a uniform increase of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase of low-to-high latitude SST gradient both lead to increase of precipitation and precipitation extremes for most latitudes. The perturbed SSTs generally have stronger impacts on precipitation extremes than on mean precipitation. Horizontal model resolution strongly affects the global warming signals in the extreme precipitation in tropical and subtropical regions but not in high latitude regions. This study illustrates that the effects of horizontal resolution have to be taken into account to develop more robust projections of precipitation extremes.

  15. Variation in Estimates of Limited Health Literacy by Assessment Instruments and Non-Response Bias

    PubMed Central

    Partin, Melissa R.; Noorbaloochi, Siamak; Grill, Joseph P.; Saha, Somnath; Snyder, Annamay; Nugent, Sean; Baines Simon, Alisha; Gralnek, Ian; Provenzale, Dawn; van Ryn, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Objectives This paper compares estimates of poor health literacy using two widely used assessment tools and assesses the effect of non-response on these estimates. Study Design and Setting A total of 4,868 veterans receiving care at four VA medical facilities between 2004 and 2005 were stratified by age and facility and randomly selected for recruitment. Interviewers collected demographic information and conducted assessments of health literacy (both REALM and S-TOFHLA) from 1,796 participants. Prevalence estimates for each assessment were computed. Non-respondents received a brief proxy questionnaire with demographic and self-report literacy questions to assess non-response bias. Available administrative data for non-participants were also used to assess non-response bias. Results Among the 1,796 patients assessed using the S-TOFHLA, 8% had inadequate and 7% had marginal skills. For the REALM, 4% were categorized with 6th grade skills and 17% with 7–8th grade skills. Adjusting for non-response bias increased the S-TOFHLA prevalence estimates for inadequate and marginal skills to 9.3% and 11.8%, respectively, and the REALM estimates for ≤6th and 7–8th grade skills to 5.4% and 33.8%, respectively. Conclusions Estimates of poor health literacy varied by the assessment used, especially after adjusting for non-response bias. Researchers and clinicians should consider the possible limitations of each assessment when considering the most suitable tool for their purposes. PMID:20224964

  16. Laypersons’ Responses to the Communication of Uncertainty Regarding Cancer Risk Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Han, Paul K. J.; Klein, William M. P.; Lehman, Thomas C.; Massett, Holly; Lee, Simon C.; Freedman, Andrew N.

    2009-01-01

    Objective To explore laypersons’ responses to the communication of uncertainty associated with individualized cancer risk estimates and to identify reasons for individual differences in these responses. Design A qualitative study was conducted using focus groups. Participants were informed about a new colorectal cancer risk prediction model, and presented with hypothetical individualized risk estimates using presentation formats varying in expressed uncertainty (range v. point estimate). Semistructured interviews explored participants’ responses to this information. Participants and Setting Eight focus groups were conducted with 48 adults aged 50 to 74 residing in 2 major US metropolitan areas, Chicago, IL and Washington, DC. Purposive sampling was used to recruit participants with a high school or greater education, some familiarity with information technology, and no personal or immediate family history of cancer. Results Participants identified several sources of uncertainty regarding cancer risk estimates, including missing data, limitations in accuracy and source credibility, and conflicting information. In comparing presentation formats, most participants reported greater worry and perceived risk with the range than with the point estimate, consistent with the phenomenon of “ambiguity aversion.” However, others reported the opposite effect or else indifference between formats. Reasons suggested by participants’ responses included individual differences in optimism and motivations to reduce feelings of vulnerability and personal lack of control. Perceptions of source credibility and risk mutability emerged as potential mediating factors. Conclusions Laypersons’ responses to the communication of uncertainty regarding cancer risk estimates differ, and include both heightened and diminished risk perceptions. These differences may be attributable to personality, cognitive, and motivational factors. PMID:19470720

  17. A fast-time-response extreme ultraviolet spectrometer for measurement of impurity line emissions in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Ling; Xu, Zong; Wu, Zhenwei; Zhang, Pengfei; Wu, Chengrui; Gao, Wei; Shen, Junsong; Chen, Yingjie; Liu, Xiang; Wang, Yumin; Gong, Xianzu; Hu, Liqun; Chen, Junlin; Zhang, Xiaodong; Wan, Baonian; Li, Jiangang; Morita, Shigeru; Ohishi, Tetsutarou; Goto, Motoshi; Dong, Chunfeng; and others

    2015-12-15

    A flat-field extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectrometer working in the 20-500 Å wavelength range with fast time response has been newly developed to measure line emissions from highly ionized tungsten in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) with a tungsten divertor, while the monitoring of light and medium impurities is also an aim in the present development. A flat-field focal plane for spectral image detection is made by a laminar-type varied-line-spacing concave holographic grating with an angle of incidence of 87°. A back-illuminated charge-coupled device (CCD) with a total size of 26.6 × 6.6 mm{sup 2} and pixel numbers of 1024 × 255 (26 × 26 μm{sup 2}/pixel) is used for recording the focal image of spectral lines. An excellent spectral resolution of Δλ{sub 0} = 3-4 pixels, where Δλ{sub 0} is defined as full width at the foot position of a spectral line, is obtained at the 80-400 Å wavelength range after careful adjustment of the grating and CCD positions. The high signal readout rate of the CCD can improve the temporal resolution of time-resolved spectra when the CCD is operated in the full vertical binning mode. It is usually operated at 5 ms per frame. If the vertical size of the CCD is reduced with a narrow slit, the time response becomes faster. The high-time response in the spectral measurement therefore makes possible a variety of spectroscopic studies, e.g., impurity behavior in long pulse discharges with edge-localized mode bursts. An absolute intensity calibration of the EUV spectrometer is also carried out with a technique using the EUV bremsstrahlung continuum at 20-150 Å for quantitative data analysis. Thus, the high-time resolution tungsten spectra have been successfully observed with good spectral resolution using the present EUV spectrometer system. Typical tungsten spectra in the EUV wavelength range observed from EAST discharges are presented with absolute intensity and spectral identification.

  18. A fast-time-response extreme ultraviolet spectrometer for measurement of impurity line emissions in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Morita, Shigeru; Xu, Zong; Wu, Zhenwei; Zhang, Pengfei; Wu, Chengrui; Gao, Wei; Ohishi, Tetsutarou; Goto, Motoshi; Shen, Junsong; Chen, Yingjie; Liu, Xiang; Wang, Yumin; Dong, Chunfeng; Zhang, Hongmin; Huang, Xianli; Gong, Xianzu; Hu, Liqun; Chen, Junlin; Zhang, Xiaodong; Wan, Baonian; Li, Jiangang

    2015-12-01

    A flat-field extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectrometer working in the 20-500 Å wavelength range with fast time response has been newly developed to measure line emissions from highly ionized tungsten in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) with a tungsten divertor, while the monitoring of light and medium impurities is also an aim in the present development. A flat-field focal plane for spectral image detection is made by a laminar-type varied-line-spacing concave holographic grating with an angle of incidence of 87°. A back-illuminated charge-coupled device (CCD) with a total size of 26.6 × 6.6 mm(2) and pixel numbers of 1024 × 255 (26 × 26 μm(2)/pixel) is used for recording the focal image of spectral lines. An excellent spectral resolution of Δλ0 = 3-4 pixels, where Δλ0 is defined as full width at the foot position of a spectral line, is obtained at the 80-400 Å wavelength range after careful adjustment of the grating and CCD positions. The high signal readout rate of the CCD can improve the temporal resolution of time-resolved spectra when the CCD is operated in the full vertical binning mode. It is usually operated at 5 ms per frame. If the vertical size of the CCD is reduced with a narrow slit, the time response becomes faster. The high-time response in the spectral measurement therefore makes possible a variety of spectroscopic studies, e.g., impurity behavior in long pulse discharges with edge-localized mode bursts. An absolute intensity calibration of the EUV spectrometer is also carried out with a technique using the EUV bremsstrahlung continuum at 20-150 Å for quantitative data analysis. Thus, the high-time resolution tungsten spectra have been successfully observed with good spectral resolution using the present EUV spectrometer system. Typical tungsten spectra in the EUV wavelength range observed from EAST discharges are presented with absolute intensity and spectral identification.

  19. Dose-response modeling in mental health using stein-like estimators with instrumental variables.

    PubMed

    Ginestet, Cedric E; Emsley, Richard; Landau, Sabine

    2017-02-21

    A mental health trial is analyzed using a dose-response model, in which the number of sessions attended by the patients is deemed indicative of the dose of psychotherapeutic treatment. Here, the parameter of interest is the difference in causal treatment effects between the subpopulations that take part in different numbers of therapy sessions. For this data set, interactions between random treatment allocation and prognostic baseline variables provide the requisite instrumental variables. While the corresponding two-stage least squares (TSLS) estimator tends to have smaller bias than the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator; the TSLS suffers from larger variance. It is therefore appealing to combine the desirable properties of the OLS and TSLS estimators. Such a trade-off is achieved through an affine combination of these two estimators, using mean squared error as a criterion. This produces the semi-parametric Stein-like (SPSL) estimator as introduced by Judge and Mittelhammer (2004). The SPSL estimator is used in conjunction with multiple imputation with chained equations, to provide an estimator that can exploit all available information. Simulated data are also generated to illustrate the superiority of the SPSL estimator over its OLS and TSLS counterparts. A package entitled SteinIV implementing these methods has been made available through the R platform. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Storms or cold fronts? What is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

    2015-05-01

    On Friday, 7 March 2009, a 200 m-long section of the tourist pier in Puerto Colombia collapsed under the impact of the waves generated by a cold front in the area. The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms on extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean to determine the degree of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed and the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the wave's height; therefore, it is necessary to definitively know the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. Using Gumbel's extreme value methodology, the significant height values for the study area were calculated. The methodology was evaluated using data from the re-analysis of the spectral NOAA Wavewatch III (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombia Caribbean coast (continental and insular) of the last 15 years. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area formed by Baja Guajira, Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena, the strong influence of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. On the other hand, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast, from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá, even though extreme waves are lower than in the previous regions, extreme waves are dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from that in the continental area due to its geographic location. The wave heights in the extreme regime are

  1. Estimating Multidimensional Item Response Models with Mixed Structure. Research Report. ETS RR-05-04

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Jinming

    2005-01-01

    This study derived an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for estimating the parameters of multidimensional item response models. A genetic algorithm (GA) was developed to be used in the maximization step in each EM cycle. The focus of the EM-GA algorithm developed in this paper was on multidimensional items with "mixed structure."…

  2. A Multidimensional Item Response Modeling Approach for Improving Subscale Proficiency Estimation and Classification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yao, Lihua; Boughton, Keith A.

    2007-01-01

    Several approaches to reporting subscale scores can be found in the literature. This research explores a multidimensional compensatory dichotomous and polytomous item response theory modeling approach for subscale score proficiency estimation, leading toward a more diagnostic solution. It also develops and explores the recovery of a Markov chain…

  3. Comparison of total body water estimates from O-18 and bioelectrical response prediction equations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrows, Linda H.; Inners, L. Daniel; Stricklin, Marcella D.; Klein, Peter D.; Wong, William W.; Siconolfi, Steven F.

    1993-01-01

    Identification of an indirect, rapid means to measure total body water (TBW) during space flight may aid in quantifying hydration status and assist in countermeasure development. Bioelectrical response testing and hydrostatic weighing were performed on 27 subjects who ingested O-18, a naturally occurring isotope of oxygen, to measure true TBW. TBW estimates from three bioelectrical response prediction equations and fat-free mass (FFM) were compared to TBW measured from O-18. A repeated measures MANOVA with post-hoc Dunnett's Test indicated a significant (p less than 0.05) difference between TBW estimates from two of the three bioelectrical response prediction equations and O-18. TBW estimates from FFM and the Kushner & Schoeller (1986) equation yielded results that were similar to those given by O-18. Strong correlations existed between each prediction method and O-18; however, standard errors, identified through regression analyses, were higher for the bioelectrical response prediction equations compared to those derived from FFM. These findings suggest (1) the Kushner & Schoeller (1986) equation may provide a valid measure of TBW, (2) other TBW prediction equations need to be identified that have variability similar to that of FFM, and (3) bioelectrical estimates of TBW may prove valuable in quantifying hydration status during space flight.

  4. An NCME Instructional Module on Estimating Item Response Theory Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Jee-Seon; Bolt, Daniel M.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this ITEMS module is to provide an introduction to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation for item response models. A brief description of Bayesian inference is followed by an overview of the various facets of MCMC algorithms, including discussion of prior specification, sampling procedures, and methods for evaluating chain…

  5. Using the Randomized Response Technique to Estimate the Extent of Delinquent Behavior in Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gottfredson, Gary D.

    The Randomized Response Technique (RRT) appears to have promise in future work which studies the relation of school variables to disruption or delinquent behavior. The RRT is especially useful in situations when it is difficult or undesirable directly to ask stigmatizing questions. The proportions of students in this study estimated to have used…

  6. The Effects of Multidimensional Polytomous Response Data on Unidimensional Many-FACET Rasch Model Parameter Estimates.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Shudong; Wang, Ning

    When categorical responses were simulated from a Multidimensional Many-FACETS Rasch Compensatory Model (MMFRCM), the effects of ability, task difficulty, and step difficulty estimates with the unidimensional Many-FACETS Rasch Model (MFRM; Linacre, 1999) were examined in terms of three error indexes, average absolute difference (AAD), bias, and…

  7. Observation-based Estimate of Climate Sensitivity with a Scaling Climate Response Function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hébert, Raphael; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2016-04-01

    To properly adress the anthropogenic impacts upon the earth system, an estimate of the climate sensitivity to radiative forcing is essential. Observation-based estimates of climate sensitivity are often limited by their ability to take into account the slower response of the climate system imparted mainly by the large thermal inertia of oceans, they are nevertheless essential to provide an alternative to estimates from global circulation models and increase our confidence in estimates of climate sensitivity by the multiplicity of approaches. It is straightforward to calculate the Effective Climate Sensitivity(EffCS) as the ratio of temperature change to the change in radiative forcing; the result is almost identical to the Transient Climate Response(TCR), but it underestimates the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity(ECS). A study of global mean temperature is thus presented assuming a Scaling Climate Response Function to deterministic radiative forcing. This general form is justified as there exists a scaling symmetry respected by the dynamics, and boundary conditions, over a wide range of scales and it allows for long-range dependencies while retaining only 3 parameter which are estimated empirically. The range of memory is modulated by the scaling exponent H. We can calculate, analytically, a one-to-one relation between the scaling exponent H and the ratio of EffCS to TCR and EffCS to ECS. The scaling exponent of the power law is estimated by a regression of temperature as a function of forcing. We consider for the analysis 4 different datasets of historical global mean temperature and 100 scenario runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 distributed among the 4 Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP) scenarios. We find that the error function for the estimate on historical temperature is very wide and thus, many scaling exponent can be used without meaningful changes in the fit residuals of historical temperatures; their response in the year 2100

  8. Model-based parameter estimation using cardiovascular response to orthostatic stress

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heldt, T.; Shim, E. B.; Kamm, R. D.; Mark, R. G.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a cardiovascular model that is capable of simulating the short-term (< or approximately equal to 3 min) transient hemodynamic response to gravitational stress and a gradient-based optimization method that allows for the automated estimation of model parameters from simulated or experimental data. We perform a sensitivity analysis of the transient heart rate response to determine which parameters of the model impact the heart rate dynamics significantly. We subsequently include only those parameters in the estimation routine that impact the transient heart rate dynamics substantially. We apply the estimation algorithm to both simulated and real data and showed that restriction to the 20 most important parameters does not impair our ability to match the data.

  9. Estimation for zero-inflated over-dispersed count data model with missing response.

    PubMed

    Mian, Rajibul; Paul, Sudhir

    2016-12-30

    In this paper, we develop estimation procedure for the parameters of a zero-inflated over-dispersed/under-dispersed count model in the presence of missing responses. In particular, we deal with a zero-inflated extended negative binomial model in the presence of missing responses. A weighted expectation maximization algorithm is used for the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters involved. Some simulations are conducted to study the properties of the estimators. Robustness of the procedure is shown when count data follow other over-dispersed models, such as the log-normal mixture of the Poisson distribution or even from a zero-inflated Poisson model. An illustrative example and a discussion leading to some conclusions are given. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Equatorial and Low-Latitude Ionospheric Response to the Extreme Space Weather Event of March 2015, in the Brazilian Sector.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fagundes, P. R.; Cardoso, F. A.; Fejer, B. G.; Kavutarapu, V.; Ribeiro, B. A.; Pillat, V. G.

    2015-12-01

    Fagundes PR, Cardoso FA and Venkatesh KPhysics and Astronomy Laboratory, Universidade do Vale do Paraiba (UNIVAP), Sao Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo, Brazil In the present investigation we discuss the results on the response of the ionosphere (F-region) in the Brazilian sector, during extreme space weather event of March 2015. This geomagnetic storm has been considered as one of strongest storms in the solar cycle 24 where, the Dst index reached a minimum of -227 nT at 23:00 UT (17/03/2015) with KP reaching to 8-, and the monthly mean F10.7 solar flux was 125 sfu. This space weather event was studied using a large network of 110 GPS stations. It has been noticed that the Total Electron Content (TEC) was severely disturbed during the geomagnetic storm main and recovery phases. A wavelike oscillation with three peaks is observed from equator to low latitudes during the storm main phase on 17th and 18th March, 2015. Using a latitudinal chain of 8 GPS stations from equatorial region to low latitudes the storm time behavior of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) is investigated. It was noticed that the wavelike oscillation peak latitudinal extent decreases from the beginning of main phase to the recovery phase. The first maximum extends beyond from 2oS to 20oS, the second one from 8oS to 18oS and the third one from 13oS to 17oS. In addition, a strong negative phase in TEC variations is observed during the recovery phase on March 18, 2015. This negative phase is found to be stronger at low-latitude compared to the equatorial region. An anomalous behavior of EIA caused by the wavelike oscillations is observed during the main phase on March 17, 2015. Also, due to the strong negative phase in TEC resulted in strong EIA suppression on March 18, 2015.

  11. Modified Maxium Likelihood Estimation Method for Completely Separated and Quasi-Completely Separated Data for a Dose-Response Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-08-01

    MODIFIED MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION METHOD FOR COMPLETELY SEPARATED AND QUASI-COMPLETELY SEPARATED DATA...Likelihood Estimation Method for Completely Separated and Quasi-Completely Separated Data for a Dose-Response Model 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT...quasi-completely separated , the traditional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method generates infinite estimates. The bias-reduction (BR) method

  12. Relative Precision of Ability Estimation in Polytomous CAT: A Comparison under the Generalized Partial Credit Model and Graded Response Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Shudong; Wang, Tianyou

    The purpose of this Monte Carlo study was to evaluate the relative accuracy of T. Warm's weighted likelihood estimate (WLE) compared to maximum likelihood estimate (MLE), expected a posteriori estimate (EAP), and maximum a posteriori estimate (MAP), using the generalized partial credit model (GPCM) and graded response model (GRM) under a variety…

  13. Estimates of Lifetime Extradyadic Sex Using a Hybrid of Randomized Response Technique and Crosswise Design.

    PubMed

    Tu, Su-Hao; Hsieh, Shu-Hui

    2017-02-01

    The prevalence of extradyadic sex (EDS) tends to be underestimated due to underreporting in national surveys, which use direct questioning. Self-administered questionnaires can reduce this response bias but may cause the anxiety of privacy exposure. Randomized Response Technique (RRT) can ensure participants' confidentiality under the randomized design of indirect questions to and was found to yield more valid estimates of sexual or other sensitive behaviors than direct questions. This study estimated the EDS rate among Taiwanese aged 18 years and over, using a hybrid of Randomized Response Technique and Crosswise Design (RRTCD) and the Weighted Conditional Likelihood (WCL) estimator. The data analyzed were from the 2012 Taiwan Social Change Survey, in which the answer to the innocuous question from the unrelated-question RRT of Greenberg, Abul-Ela, Simmons, and Horvitz (1969) was obtained indirectly from a demographic question related to the innocuous question. This RRTCD provided more information on the innocuous question to effectively improve the efficiency of the unrelated-question RRT of Greenberg et al. The WCL estimator was found to be more efficient than the Greenberg et al. estimator for estimating the EDS rate in terms of smaller standard errors and smaller differences in the levels of EDS across sociodemographics and extramarital-sex attitudes. Similar to those suggested in the literature, the estimated rates of EDS in two subsamples were higher among men, homosexuals, those who have or had wages, and those who accepted extramarital sex. The levels of EDS varying with sociodemographics were different between the married and the unmarried.

  14. Response of the extremely halophilic Halococcus dombrowskii strain H4 to UV radiation and space conditions in the EXPOSE -ADAPT project on the International Space Station

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fendrihan, Sergiu; Grosbacher, Michael; Stan-Lotter, Helga

    2010-05-01

    The international project ADAPT focuses on the response of different microorganisms to outer space conditions. In 2007, the European Space Agency (ESA) has installed the Columbus laboratory and the exposure facility EXPOSE-E on the International Space Station (ISS). One of the microorganisms that were exposed for 18 months on the ISS is Halococcus dombrowskii strain H4, an extremely halophilic archaeon which was isolated from about 250 million years old alpine salt deposits (1). Ground experiments with Hcc. dombrowskii included irradiation with different wavelengths and doses of UV, using a Hg low pressure lamp, a solar simulator SOL2 (both at the DLR, Cologne) and a Mars UV simulation lamp (2). Cells were embedded in halite crystals which were formed on quartz discs by evaporation of high salt buffers. Methods for analyzing the effects of exposure on Hcc. dombrowskii include the estimation of colony forming units (CFUs), staining for viability with the BacLight LIVE/DEAD kit (2), establishing long term liquid cultures and determination of the formation of cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers (CPDs) with specific antibodies (3). Counting of viable (green) and dead (red) cells showed an apparent preservation of viability following exposure to about 21 kJ/m2 in ground experiments, but the calculated D37 (dose of 37 % survival) for Hcc. dombrowskii was about 400 kJ/m2 in salt crystals (2). CPDs were detected in about 6-8% of cells of Hcc. dombrowskii following exposure to a dose of 3000 kJ/m2 (200-400 nm). Preliminary results with the samples of Hcc. dombrowskii from the ISS suggested preservation of cellular morphology and stainability with the fluorescent dyes of the LIVE/DEAD kit, as well as formation of CPDs in about 2-3 % of the cells. The determination of the survival of cells by measuring proliferation requires months of incubation; data can be expected in May or June 2010. (1) Stan-Lotter H, Pfaffenhuemer M, Legat A, Busse H-J, Radax C, Gruber C (2002) Halococcus

  15. Summary of Methods for Calculating Dynamic Lateral Stability and Response and for Estimating Lateral Stability Derivatives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Campbell, John P; Mckinney, Marion O

    1951-01-01

    A summary of methods for making dynamic lateral stability and response calculations and for estimating the aerodynamic stability derivatives required for use in these calculations is presented. The processes of performing calculations of the time histories of lateral motions, of the period and damping of these motions, and of the lateral stability boundaries are presented as a series of simple straightforward steps. Existing methods for estimating the stability derivatives are summarized and, in some cases, simple new empirical formulas are presented. Reference is also made to reports presenting experimental data that should be useful in making estimates of the derivatives. Detailed estimating methods are presented for low-subsonic-speed conditions but only a brief discussion and a list of references are given for transonic- and supersonic-speed conditions.

  16. The generation of shared cryptographic keys through channel impulse response estimation at 60 GHz.

    SciTech Connect

    Young, Derek P.; Forman, Michael A.; Dowdle, Donald Ryan

    2010-09-01

    Methods to generate private keys based on wireless channel characteristics have been proposed as an alternative to standard key-management schemes. In this work, we discuss past work in the field and offer a generalized scheme for the generation of private keys using uncorrelated channels in multiple domains. Proposed cognitive enhancements measure channel characteristics, to dynamically change transmission and reception parameters as well as estimate private key randomness and expiration times. Finally, results are presented on the implementation of a system for the generation of private keys for cryptographic communications using channel impulse-response estimation at 60 GHz. The testbed is composed of commercial millimeter-wave VubIQ transceivers, laboratory equipment, and software implemented in MATLAB. Novel cognitive enhancements are demonstrated, using channel estimation to dynamically change system parameters and estimate cryptographic key strength. We show for a complex channel that secret key generation can be accomplished on the order of 100 kb/s.

  17. Extreme drought events in Mediterranean forests: phenological response as a preemptive mechanisms for water and nitrogen conservation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Misson, Laurent; Rambal, Serge; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Rocheteau, Alain; Rodriguez, Raquel; Collin, Christian; Degueldre, David; Letts, Matthew

    2010-05-01

    Global climate change is expected to result in more frequent and intense droughts in the Mediterranean region. To understand forest response to severe drought at different periods of the year, we used a mobile rainfall shelter to examine the impact of spring and autumn rainfall exclusion on phenology and photosynthesis in a holm oak (Quercus ilex) ecosystem. Leaf, female flower, fruit development and maturation were highly affected by the spring rainfall exclusion treatment because predawn leaf water potential started to decrease at the same time actual leaf and female flower were appearing. Half of the sampled trees did not show signs of bud burst and new leaf development. The spring exclusion treatment had much less effects on male flower, probably because they follow an earlier development than leaf and female flower and in consequence, they avoided the decrease in water potential. Spring rainfall exclusion, carried out during increasing atmospheric demand and leaf development, had a larger impact on photosynthesis than autumn exclusion, conducted at a time of mature foliage and decreasing vapour pressure deficit. The relative importance of NSL increased with drought intensity, including balanced reductions in assimilation due to mesophyll conductance (MCL) and biochemical processes (BL). Stomatal closure quickly limited net photosynthesis (An) under mild drought stress. Effects of SL and NSL were equal once total limitation (TL) reached 60%, with 15% contributions from both MCL and BL. Non-stomatal limitation greatly exceeded SL during severe drought, with 76% NSL partitioned equally between MCL and BL when TL reached 100%. Maximum carboxylation rate (Vcmax) and An decreased by more than 70% by midsummer, in response to lower predawn water potential (φp). The relationship between φp and NSL was steeper than for SL, and the impact of BL was strong at low φp during spring exclusion. Leaf lifespan increased with spring exclusion and some trees did not produce

  18. Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change.

    PubMed

    Bokhorst, Stef; Phoenix, Gareth K; Berg, Matty P; Callaghan, Terry V; Kirby-Lambert, Christopher; Bjerke, Jarle W

    2015-11-01

    Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub-Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro-arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro-arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO2 fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub-Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer warming may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub-Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single-factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may

  19. The responsiveness and correlation between Fugl-Meyer Assessment, Motor Status Scale, and the Action Research Arm Test in chronic stroke with upper-extremity rehabilitation robotic training.

    PubMed

    Wei, Xi-Jun; Tong, Kai-Yu; Hu, Xiao-Ling

    2011-12-01

    Responsiveness of clinical assessments is an important element in the report of clinical effectiveness after rehabilitation. The correlation could reflect the validity of assessments as an indication of clinical performance before and after interventions. This study investigated the correlation and responsiveness of Fugl-Meyer Assessment (FMA), Motor Status Scale (MSS), Action Research Arm Test (ARAT) and the Modified Ashworth Scale (MAS), which are used frequently in effectiveness studies of robotic upper-extremity training in stroke rehabilitation. Twenty-seven chronic stroke patients were recruited for a 20-session upper-extremity rehabilitation robotic training program. This was a rater-blinded randomized controlled trial. All participants were evaluated with FMA, MSS, ARAT, MAS, and Functional Independent Measure before and after robotic training. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was applied for the analysis of correlation. The standardized response mean (SRM) and Guyatt's responsiveness index (GRI) were used to analyze responsiveness. Spearman's correlation coefficient showed a significantly high correlation (ρ=0.91-0.96) among FMA, MSS, and ARAT and a fair-to-moderate correlation (ρ=0.40-0.62) between MAS and the other assessments. FMA, MSS, and MAS on the wrist showed higher responsiveness (SRM=0.85-0.98, GRI=1.59-3.62), whereas ARAT showed relatively less responsiveness (SRM=0.22, GRI=0.81). The results showed that FMA or MSS would be the best choice for evaluating the functional improvement in stroke studies on robotic upper-extremity training with high responsiveness and good correlation with ARAT. MAS could be used separately to evaluate the spasticity changes after intervention in terms of high responsiveness.

  20. Improved photometric redshifts via enhanced estimates of system response, galaxy templates and magnitude priors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Samuel J.; Thorman, Paul

    2013-05-01

    Wide, deep photometric surveys require robust photometric redshift estimates (photo-zs) for studies of large-scale structure. These estimates depend critically on accurate photometry. We describe the improvements to the photometric calibration and the photo-z estimates in the Deep Lens Survey (DLS) from correcting three of the inputs to the photo-z calculation: the system response as a function of wavelength, the spectral energy distribution templates and template prior probabilities as a function of magnitude. We model the system response with a physical model of the MOSAIC camera's CCD, which corrects a 0.1 mag discrepancy in the colours of type M2 and later stars relative to the Sloan Digital Sky Survey z photometry. We provide our estimated z response function for the use of other surveys that used MOSAIC before its recent detector upgrade. The improved throughput curve, template set and Bayesian prior lead to general improvement in the predicted photometric redshifts, including a 20 per cent reduction in photo-z scatter at low redshift and a reduction of the bias by a factor of more than 2 at high redshift. This paper serves as both a photo-z data release description for DLS and a guide for testing the quality of photometry and resulting photo-zs generally.

  1. Test the reliability of doubly robust estimation with missing response data.

    PubMed

    Chen, Baojiang; Qin, Jing

    2014-06-01

    In statistical inference, one has to make sure that the underlying regression model is correctly specified otherwise the resulting estimation may be biased. Model checking is an important method to detect any departure of the regression model from the true one. Missing data are a ubiquitous problem in social and medical studies. If the underlying regression model is correctly specified, recent researches show great popularity of the doubly robust (DR) estimates method for handling missing data because of its robustness to the misspecification of either the missing data model or the conditional mean model, that is, the model for the conditional expectation of true regression model conditioning on the observed quantities. However, little work has been devoted to the goodness of fit test for DR estimates method. In this article, we propose a testing method to assess the reliability of the estimator derived from the DR estimating equation with possibly missing response and always observed auxiliary variables. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed test can control type I errors well. Furthermore the proposed method can detect departures from model assumptions in the marginal mean model of interest powerfully. A real dementia data set is used to illustrate the method for the diagnosis of model misspecification in the problem of missing response with an always observed auxiliary variable for cross-sectional data.

  2. A systematic method for estimating individual responses to treatment with antipsychotics in CATIE

    PubMed Central

    Adkins, Daniel E.; McClay, Joseph; Lieberman, Jeffrey; Sullivan, Patrick F.

    2009-01-01

    Objective In addition to comparing drug treatment groups, the wealth of genetic and clinical data collected in the Clinical Antipsychotic Trials of Intervention Effectiveness study offers tremendous opportunities to study individual differences in response to treatment with antipsychotics. A major challenge, however, is how to estimate the individual responses to treatments. For this purpose, we propose a systematic method that condenses all information collected during the trials in an optimal, empirical fashion. Method Our method comprises three steps. First, we test how to best model treatment effects over time. Next, we screen many covariates to select those that will further improve the precision of the individual treatment effect estimates which, for example, improves power to detect predictors of individual treatment response. Third, Best Linear Unbiased Predictors (BLUPs) of the random effects are used to estimate for each individual a treatment effect based on the model empirically indicated to best fit the data. We illustrate our method for the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). Results A model assuming it takes on average about 30 days for a treatment to exert an effect that will then remain about the same for the rest of the trial showed the best fit to the data. Of all screened covariates, only two improved the precision of the individual treatment effect estimates. A comparison with more traditional post- minus pre-treatment symptom scores showed that our model based treatment effect estimates were a) more precise because they use all data collected during the trial rather than just two data points, and b) less sensitive to biases created by using the same baseline to calculate multiple treatment effects in CATIE. Conclusions We demonstrate that treatment effects can be estimated in a way that condenses all information collected in an optimal, empirical fashion. We expect the proposed method to be valuable for other clinical outcomes in

  3. A Methodology for Estimating Large-Customer Demand Response MarketPotential

    SciTech Connect

    Goldman, Charles; Hopper, Nicole; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan,Bernie; Cappers,Peter

    2007-08-01

    Demand response (DR) is increasingly recognized as an essential ingredient to well-functioning electricity markets. DR market potential studies can answer questions about the amount of DR available in a given area and from which market segments. Several recent DR market potential studies have been conducted, most adapting techniques used to estimate energy-efficiency (EE) potential. In this scoping study, we: reviewed and categorized seven recent DR market potential studies; recommended a methodology for estimating DR market potential for large, non-residential utility customers that uses price elasticities to account for behavior and prices; compiled participation rates and elasticity values from six DR options offered to large customers in recent years, and demonstrated our recommended methodology with large customer market potential scenarios at an illustrative Northeastern utility. We observe that EE and DR have several important differences that argue for an elasticity approach for large-customer DR options that rely on customer-initiated response to prices, rather than the engineering approaches typical of EE potential studies. Base-case estimates suggest that offering DR options to large, non-residential customers results in 1-3% reductions in their class peak demand in response to prices or incentive payments of $500/MWh. Participation rates (i.e., enrollment in voluntary DR programs or acceptance of default hourly pricing) have the greatest influence on DR impacts of all factors studied, yet are the least well understood. Elasticity refinements to reflect the impact of enabling technologies and response at high prices provide more accurate market potential estimates, particularly when arc elasticities (rather than substitution elasticities) are estimated.

  4. Estimation of Supersonic Stage Separation Aerodynamics of Winged-Body Launch Vehicles Using Response Surface Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Erickson, Gary E.

    2010-01-01

    Response surface methodology was used to estimate the longitudinal stage separation aerodynamic characteristics of a generic, bimese, winged multi-stage launch vehicle configuration at supersonic speeds in the NASA LaRC Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The Mach 3 staging was dominated by shock wave interactions between the orbiter and booster vehicles throughout the relative spatial locations of interest. The inference space was partitioned into several contiguous regions within which the separation aerodynamics were presumed to be well-behaved and estimable using central composite designs capable of fitting full second-order response functions. The underlying aerodynamic response surfaces of the booster vehicle in belly-to-belly proximity to the orbiter vehicle were estimated using piecewise-continuous lower-order polynomial functions. The quality of fit and prediction capabilities of the empirical models were assessed in detail, and the issue of subspace boundary discontinuities was addressed. Augmenting the central composite designs to full third-order using computer-generated D-optimality criteria was evaluated. The usefulness of central composite designs, the subspace sizing, and the practicality of fitting lower-order response functions over a partitioned inference space dominated by highly nonlinear and possibly discontinuous shock-induced aerodynamics are discussed.

  5. Estimation of the auto frequency response function at unexcited points using dummy masses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosoya, Naoki; Yaginuma, Shinji; Onodera, Hiroshi; Yoshimura, Takuya

    2015-02-01

    If structures with complex shapes have space limitations, vibration tests using an exciter or impact hammer for the excitation are difficult. Although measuring the auto frequency response function at an unexcited point may not be practical via a vibration test, it can be obtained by assuming that the inertia acting on a dummy mass is an external force on the target structure upon exciting a different excitation point. We propose a method to estimate the auto frequency response functions at unexcited points by attaching a small mass (dummy mass), which is comparable to the accelerometer mass. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparing the auto frequency response functions estimated at unexcited points in a beam structure to those obtained from numerical simulations. We also consider random measurement errors by finite element analysis and vibration tests, but not bias errors. Additionally, the applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated by applying it to estimate the auto frequency response function of the lower arm in a car suspension.

  6. Dissociating estimation from comparison and response eliminates parietal involvement in sequential numerosity perception.

    PubMed

    Cavdaroglu, Seda; Katz, Curren; Knops, André

    2015-08-01

    It has been widely debated whether the parietal cortex stores an abstract representation of numerosity that is activated for Arabic digits as well as for non-symbolic stimuli in a sensory modality independent fashion. Some studies suggest that numerical information in time-invariant (simultaneous) symbolic and non-symbolic visual stimuli is represented in the parietal cortex. In humans, whether the same representation is activated for time-variant (sequential) stimuli and for stimuli coming from different modalities has not been determined. To investigate this idea, we measured the brain activation of healthy adults performing estimation and/or comparison of sequential visual (series of dots) and auditory (series of beeps) numerosities. Our experimental design allowed us to separate numerosity estimation from comparison and response related factors. The BOLD response in the parietal cortex increased only when participants were engaged in the comparison of two consecutive numerosities that required a response. Using multivariate pattern analysis we trained a classifier to decode numerosity in various regions of interest (ROI). We failed to find any parietal ROI where the classifier could decode numerosities during the estimation phase. Rather, when participants were not engaged in comparison we were able to decode numerosity in an auditory cortex ROI for auditory stimuli and in a visual cortex ROI for visual stimuli. On the other hand, during the response period the classifier successfully decoded numerosity information in a parietal ROI for both visual and auditory numerosities. These results were further confirmed by support vector regression. In sum, our study does not support the involvement of the parietal cortex during estimation of sequential numerosity in the absence of an active task with a response requirement.

  7. Estimating and coping with public response to radioactive waste repository siting

    SciTech Connect

    Payne, B.A.

    1984-02-07

    The siting and construction of a radioactive waste disposal operation is likely to be controversial in the communities being considered, and at the state and national levels as well. Public response can be conceptualized at two levels: individual, and group or organizational. At the individual level, public response is the behavior of people motivated by their attitudes, knowledge, and perceptions of radioactive waste and its hazards and risks. On the group or organizational level, public response is the organized activity of individuals. Organizations provide the ability to pool resources and talents, set up a division of labor, hire experts, develop a skilled leadership, take legal action, and so on. A broad range of organizations is possible: ad hoc, existing community groups with an added purpose, nationally-recognized organizations, or government offices and agencies. Two cases of response to radioactive waste disposal sites illustrate these sources and kinds of response and lead to indicators to estimate the nature and level of response. Finally, drawing from the theoretical discussion of the sources and levels of public response, on the estimation techniques, and on the examples, specific coping strategies are developed. These strategies take different forms, based on the nature and level of response (either supporting or opposing) to the proposed siting, and the past experience of the community members with similar projects, with other federal requirements, and with citizens' action groups, as well as sources and accuracy of information individuals and groups have. However, all strategies are based on a policy of honesty and straight-forwardness, with a sincere effort on the part of site evaluators and decision-makers to be attentive and responsive to the public's concerns. 10 references.

  8. Relationship between Inflammatory Response and Estimated Complication Rate after Total Hip Arthroplasty

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Xu-Xu; Wang, Tao; Li, Jian; Kang, Hui

    2016-01-01

    Background: After total hip arthroplasty (THA), there is a noteworthy inflammatory response. The inflammatory response is associated with postoperative recovery and complications. However, there had been few reports on the relationship between inflammatory response and postoperative complication rate. The aim of the present study was to investigate early inflammatory response in the first 3 days after THA, and to identify the relationship between inflammatory response and estimated complication rate after surgery. Methods: It was a prospective, nonrandomized cohort study. There were 148 patients who underwent unilateral THA in our hospital enrolled. Blood samples were collected preoperatively in the morning of the surgery and at 24, 48, and 72 h after surgery. C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) in peripheral blood were measured. The modified physiological and operative severity score for the enumeration of the morbidity (POSSUM) was recorded pre- and intra-operatively. Based on the score, estimated complication rate was calculated. Harris score was used to assess hip function before and after surgery. Results: IL-6 levels reached the peak at 24 h after surgery and CRP at 48 h. After that, both of the levels decreased. The mean Harris scores significantly increased from 41.62 ± 23.47 before surgery to 72.75 ± 9.13 at 3 days after surgery. The Harris scores after surgery did not have a significant relation with either IL-6 or CRP peak levels (P = 0.165, P = 0.341, respectively). Both CRP and IL-6 peak levels significantly and positively correlated with estimated complication rate after surgery. The estimated complication rate calculated using the POSSUM system was 43 cases of 148 patients. Actually, there were only 28 cases that were observed to get postoperative complications during hospitalization. However, there was no significant difference between estimated and observed complication rates (P = 0.078). In the group with complications, the CRP and

  9. Recovery of Item Parameters in the Nominal Response Model: A Comparison of Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wollack, James A.; Bolt, Daniel M.; Cohen, Allan S.; Lee, Young-Sun

    2002-01-01

    Compared the quality of item parameter estimates for marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with the nominal response model using simulation. The quality of item parameter recovery was nearly identical for MML and MCMC, and both methods tended to produce good estimates. (SLD)

  10. Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowland, L.; Harper, A.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Galbraith, D. R.; Imbuzeiro, H. M. A.; Powell, T. L.; Doughty, C.; Levine, N. M.; Malhi, Y.; Saleska, S. R.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Meir, P.; Williams, M.

    2015-04-01

    that even up to fairly extreme temperature increases from ambient levels (+6 °C), simulated photosynthesis becomes increasingly sensitive to gs and remains less sensitive to biochemical changes. To improve the reliability of simulations of the response of Amazonian rainforest to climate change, the mechanistic underpinnings of vegetation models need to be validated at both leaf- and canopy-scales to improve accuracy and consistency in the quantification of processes within and across an ecosystem.

  11. Impact of an extremely large magnitude volcanic eruption on the global climate and carbon cycle estimated from ensemble Earth System Model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segschneider, J.; Beitsch, A.; Timmreck, C.; Brovkin, V.; Ilyina, T.; Jungclaus, J.; Lorenz, S. J.; Six, K. D.; Zanchettin, D.

    2012-07-01

    The response of the global climate-carbon cycle system to an extremely large Northern Hemisphere mid latitude volcanic eruption is investigated using ensemble integrations with the comprehensive Earth System Model MPI-ESM. The model includes dynamical compartments of the atmosphere and ocean and interactive modules of the terrestrial biosphere as well as ocean biogeochemistry. The MPI-ESM was forced with anomalies of aerosol optical depth and effective radius of aerosol particles corresponding to a super eruption of the Yellowstone volcanic system. The model experiment consists of an ensemble of fifteen model integrations that are started at different pre-ENSO states of a contol experiment and run for 200 yr after the volcanic eruption. The climate response to the volcanic eruption is a maximum global monthly mean surface air temperature cooling of 3.8 K for the ensemble mean and from 3.3 K to 4.3 K for individual ensemble members. Atmospheric pCO2 decreases by a maximum of 5 ppm for the ensemble mean and by 3 ppm to 7 ppm for individual ensemble members approximately 6 yr after the eruption. The atmospheric carbon content only very slowly returns to near pre-eruption level at year 200 after the eruption. The ocean takes up carbon shortly after the eruption in response to the cooling, changed wind fields, and ice cover. This physics driven uptake is weakly counteracted by a reduction of the biological export production mainly in the tropical Pacific. The land vegetation pool shows a distinct loss of carbon in the initial years after the eruption which has not been present in simulations of smaller scale eruptions. The gain of the soil carbon pool determines the amplitude of the CO2 perturbation and the long term behaviour of the overall system: an initial gain caused by reduced soil respiration is followed by a rather slow return towards pre-eruption levels. During this phase, the ocean compensates partly for the reduced atmospheric carbon content in response to

  12. Impact of an extremely large magnitude volcanic eruption on the global climate and carbon cycle estimated from ensemble Earth System Model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segschneider, J.; Beitsch, A.; Timmreck, C.; Brovkin, V.; Ilyina, T.; Jungclaus, J.; Lorenz, S. J.; Six, K. D.; Zanchettin, D.

    2013-02-01

    The response of the global climate-carbon cycle system to an extremely large Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude volcanic eruption is investigated using ensemble integrations with the comprehensive Earth System Model MPI-ESM. The model includes dynamical compartments of the atmosphere and ocean and interactive modules of the terrestrial biosphere as well as ocean biogeochemistry. The MPI-ESM was forced with anomalies of aerosol optical depth and effective radius of aerosol particles corresponding to a super eruption of the Yellowstone volcanic system. The model experiment consists of an ensemble of fifteen model integrations that are started at different pre-ENSO states of a control experiment and run for 200 years after the volcanic eruption. The climate response to the volcanic eruption is a maximum global monthly mean surface air temperature cooling of 3.8 K for the ensemble mean and from 3.3 K to 4.3 K for individual ensemble members. Atmospheric pCO2 decreases by a maximum of 5 ppm for the ensemble mean and by 3 ppm to 7 ppm for individual ensemble members approximately 6 years after the eruption. The atmospheric carbon content only very slowly returns to near pre-eruption level at year 200 after the eruption. The ocean takes up carbon shortly after the eruption in response to the cooling, changed wind fields and ice cover. This physics-driven uptake is weakly counteracted by a reduction of the biological export production mainly in the tropical Pacific. The land vegetation pool shows a decrease by 4 GtC due to reduced short-wave radiation that has not been present in a smaller scale eruption. The gain of the soil carbon pool determines the amplitude of the CO2 perturbation and the long-term behaviour of the overall system: an initial gain caused by reduced soil respiration is followed by a rather slow return towards pre-eruption levels. During this phase, the ocean compensates partly for the reduced atmospheric carbon content in response to the land's gain. In

  13. Storms or cold fronts: what is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coastal region?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otero, L. J.; Ortiz-Royero, J. C.; Ruiz-Merchan, J. K.; Higgins, A. E.; Henriquez, S. A.

    2016-02-01

    The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and importance of cold fronts and storms to extreme waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean in an attempt to determine the extent of the threat posed by the flood processes to which these coastal populations are exposed. Furthermore, the study wishes to establish the actions to which coastal engineering constructions should be subject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the height of the wave. For this reason, it is necessary to establish the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. This wave height varies according to the return period considered. The significant height values for the areas focused on in the study were calculated in accordance with Gumbel's extreme value methodology. The methodology was evaluated using data from the reanalysis of the spectral National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WAVEWATCH III® (WW3) model for 15 points along the 1600 km of the Colombian Caribbean coastline (continental and insular) between the years 1979 and 2009. The results demonstrated that the extreme waves caused by tropical cyclones and those caused by cold fronts have different effects along the Colombian Caribbean coast. Storms and hurricanes are of greater importance in the Guajira Peninsula (Alta Guajira). In the central area (consisting of Baja Guajira, and the cities of Santa Marta, Barranquilla, and Cartagena), the strong impact of cold fronts on extreme waves is evident. However, in the southern region of the Colombian Caribbean coast (ranging from the Gulf of Morrosquillo to the Gulf of Urabá), the extreme values of wave heights are lower than in the previously mentioned regions, despite being dominated mainly by the passage of cold fronts. Extreme waves in the San Andrés and Providencia insular region present a different dynamic from

  14. Impulse Response Estimation for Spatial Resolution Enhancement in Ultrasonic NDE Imaging

    SciTech Connect

    Clark, G A

    2004-06-25

    This report describes a signal processing algorithm and MATLAB software for improving spatial resolution in ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation (NDE) imaging of materials. Given a measured reflection signal and an associated reference signal, the algorithm produces an optimal least-squares estimate of the impulse response of the material under test. This estimated impulse response, when used in place of the raw reflection signal, enhances the spatial resolution of the ultrasonic measurements by removing distortion caused by the limited-bandwidth transducers and the materials under test. The theory behind the processing algorithms is briefly presented, while the reader is referred to the bibliography for details. The main focus of the report is to describe how to use the MATLAB software. Two processing examples using actual ultrasonic measurements are provided for tutorial purposes.

  15. Inverse combustion force estimation based on response measurements outside the combustion chamber and signal processing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosseini Fouladi, Mohammad; Mohd. Nor, Mohd. Jailani; Kamal Ariffin, Ahmad; Abdullah, Shahrir

    2009-11-01

    Exposure to vibration has various physiological effects on vehicle passengers. Engine is one of the main sources of vehicle vibration. The major causes of engine vibration are combustion forces transmitted through the pistons and connection rods. Evaluation of sources is the first step to attenuate this vibration. Assessment of these sources is not an easy task because internal parts of machinery are not accessible. Often, instrumentation for such systems is costly, time consuming and some modifications would be necessary. Aim of the first part of this paper was to validate an inverse technique and carry out mobility analysis on a vehicle crankshaft to achieve matrix of Frequency Response Functions (FRFs). Outcomes were implemented to reconstruct the applied force for single and multiple-input systems. In the second part, the validated inverse technique and FRFs were used to estimate piston forces of an operating engine. Bearings of crankshaft were chosen as nearest accessible parts to piston connecting rods. Accelerometers were connected to the bearings for response measurement during an ideal engine operation. These responses together with FRFs, which were estimated in the previous part, were utilised in the inverse technique. Tikhonov regularization was used to solve the ill-conditioned inverse system. Two methods, namely L-curve criterion and Generalized Cross Validation (GCV), were employed to find the regularization parameter for the Tikhonov method. The inverse problem was solved and piston forces applied to crankpins were estimated. Results were validated by pressure measurement inside a cylinder and estimating the corresponding combustion force. This validation showed that inverse technique and measurement outcomes were roughly in agreement. In presence of various noise, L-curve criterion conduces to more robust results compared to the GCV method. But in the absence of high correlation between sources ( f>600 HzHz), the GCV technique leads to more accurate

  16. Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change.

    PubMed

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to better constrain the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to warming.

  17. Noninvasive Subharmonic Pressure Estimation for Monitoring Breast Cancer Response to Neoadjuvant Therapy

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-09-01

    3, pp. S13, 2010. 11 F. Forsberg. The holy grail : ultrasound microbubbles for therapy. J Ultrasound Med, vol 29, no 3, pp. S17, 2010. F...San Diego, CA, USA.  Noninvasive cardiac subharmonic pressure estimation in vivo.  The holy grail : ultrasound microbubbles for therapy May...DFD.LR.1, 2010. A. Katiyar, K. Sarkar, F.Forsberg. Subharmonic response from ultrasound contrast microbubbles for noninvasive blood pressure

  18. Modifiers of exposure--response estimates for lung cancer among miners exposed to radon progeny

    SciTech Connect

    Hornung, R.W.; Deddens, J.; Roscoe, R.

    1995-03-01

    The association between lung cancer and exposure to radon decay products has been well established. Despite agreement on this point, there is still some degree of uncertainty regarding characteristics of the exposure-response relationship. The use of studies of underground miners to estimate lung cancer risks due to residential radon exposure depends upon a better understanding of factors potentially modifying the exposure-response relationship. Given the diversity in study populations regarding smoking status, mining conditions, risk analysis methodology, and referent populations, the risk estimates across studies are quite similar. However, several factors partially contributing to differences in risk estimates are modified by attained age, time since last exposure, exposure rate, and cigarette smoking patterns. There is growing agreement across studies that relative risk decreases with attained age and time since last exposure. Several studies have also found an inverse exposure-rate effect, i.e., low exposure rates for protracted duration of exposure are more hazardous than equivalent cumulative exposures received at higher rates for shorter periods of time. Additionally, the interaction between radon exposure and cigarette smoking appears to be intermediate between additive and multiplicative in a growing number of studies. Quantitative estimates of these modifying factors are given using a new analysis of data from the latest update of the Colorado Plateau uranium miners cohort. 24 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs.

  19. Locally Estimated Hemodynamic Response Function and Activation Detection Sensitivity in Heroin-Cue Reactivity Study

    PubMed Central

    Maleki-Balajoo, Somayeh; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid; Ekhtiari, Hamed

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: A fixed hemodynamic response function (HRF) is commonly used for functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) analysis. However, HRF may vary from region to region and subject to subject. We investigated the effect of locally estimated HRF (in functionally homogenous parcels) on activation detection sensitivity in a heroin cue reactivity study. Methods: We proposed a novel exploratory method for brain parcellation based on a probabilistic model to segregate the brain into spatially connected and functionally homogeneous components. Then, we estimated HRF and detected activated regions in response to an experimental task in each parcel using a joint detection estimation (JDE) method. We compared the proposed JDE method with the general linear model (GLM) that uses a fixed HRF and is implemented in FEAT (as a part of FMRIB Software Library, version 4.1). Results: 1) Regions detected by JDE are larger than those detected by fixed HRF, 2) In group analysis, JDE found areas of activation not detected by fixed HRF. It detected drug craving a priori “regions-of-interest” in the limbic lobe (anterior cingulate cortex [ACC], posterior cingulate cortex [PCC] and cingulate gyrus), basal ganglia, especially striatum (putamen and head of caudate), and cerebellum in addition to the areas detected by the fixed HRF method, 3) JDE obtained higher Z-values of local maxima compared to those obtained by fixed HRF. Conclusion: In our study of heroin cue reactivity, our proposed method (that estimates HRF locally) outperformed the conventional GLM that uses a fixed HRF. PMID:27872691

  20. Mathematical model of cycad cones' thermogenic temperature responses: inverse calorimetry to estimate metabolic heating rates.

    PubMed

    Roemer, R B; Booth, D; Bhavsar, A A; Walter, G H; Terry, L I

    2012-12-21

    A mathematical model based on conservation of energy has been developed and used to simulate the temperature responses of cones of the Australian cycads Macrozamia lucida and Macrozamia. macleayi during their daily thermogenic cycle. These cones generate diel midday thermogenic temperature increases as large as 12 °C above ambient during their approximately two week pollination period. The cone temperature response model is shown to accurately predict the cones' temperatures over multiple days as based on simulations of experimental results from 28 thermogenic events from 3 different cones, each simulated for either 9 or 10 sequential days. The verified model is then used as the foundation of a new, parameter estimation based technique (termed inverse calorimetry) that estimates the cones' daily metabolic heating rates from temperature measurements alone. The inverse calorimetry technique's predictions of the major features of the cones' thermogenic metabolism compare favorably with the estimates from conventional respirometry (indirect calorimetry). Because the new technique uses only temperature measurements, and does not require measurements of oxygen consumption, it provides a simple, inexpensive and portable complement to conventional respirometry for estimating metabolic heating rates. It thus provides an additional tool to facilitate field and laboratory investigations of the bio-physics of thermogenic plants.

  1. Extreme coastal storms along the north coast of Ireland: hydrodynamic forcing and beach response during the winter seasons of 2013/14 and 2014/15

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loureiro, Carlos; Marianne, O'Connor; Guisado-Pintado, Emilia; Jackson, Derek; Cooper, Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The increase in storminess (frequency, duration and magnitude) and the occurrence of extreme coastal storms partly associated with climate change, represent pressing concerns for coastal communities in many regions globally. The Atlantic seaboard of Europe has recently experienced record-breaking winter seasons, particularly in Ireland and the UK, where the 2013/14 winter was characterised as the stormiest on record according to measured levels of total precipitation, extreme wind speeds, and particularly the frequency and intensity of cyclone activity. The enhanced cyclone activity during 2013/14 has resulted in unprecedented sequences of extreme water levels and energetic waves and gave rise to widespread coastal erosion and flooding, setting new benchmarks for coastal analysis and offered a glimpse of future storm impact scenarios. A regional analysis of hydrodynamic forcing along the north coast of Ireland over the last two extended winter seasons (October to March) has revealed that, although 2013/14 was indeed characterised by an exceptional frequency and intensity of coastal storms, the 2014/15 extended winter was significantly stormier. Not only was the number of individual storm events higher, but also the duration and intensity was greater, including record values of offshore significant wave height. The geomorphic response along the sandy coastal stretches of the north coast of Ireland, evaluated from morphological change at a diverse group of beach sites, revealed considerable differences in beach erosion and actual shoreline response. Variability in beach changes during these two extreme winter seasons is attributed to a variety of factors. These include localised coastal orientation relative to particular storm tracks, the embayed and highly compartmentalised setting of most of the beaches, as well as site-specific morphodynamic mechanisms such as large rip-current cells forcing the onset and/or reactivation of erosional hotspots. Such heterogeneous

  2. Adaptive urn designs for estimating several percentiles of a dose--response curve.

    PubMed

    Mugno, Raymond; Zhus, Wei; Rosenberger, William F

    2004-07-15

    Dose--response experiments are crucial in biomedical studies. There are usually multiple objectives in such experiments and among the goals is the estimation of several percentiles on the dose--response curve. Here we present the first non-parametric adaptive design approach to estimate several percentiles simultaneously via generalized Pólya urns. Theoretical properties of these designs are investigated and their performance is gaged by the locally compound optimal designs. As an example, we re-investigated a psychophysical experiment where one of the goals was to estimate the three quartiles. We show that these multiple-objective adaptive designs are more efficient than the original single-objective adaptive design targeting the median only. We also show that urn designs which target the optimal designs are slightly more efficient than those which target the desired percentiles directly. Guidelines are given as to when to use which type of design. Overall we are pleased with the efficiency results and hope compound adaptive designs proposed in this work or their variants may prove to be a viable non-parametric alternative in multiple-objective dose--response studies.

  3. A general method for parameter estimation in light-response models

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Lei; Li, Zhong-Bin; Hui, Cang; Cheng, Xiaofei; Li, Bai-Lian; Shi, Pei-Jian

    2016-01-01

    Selecting appropriate initial values is critical for parameter estimation in nonlinear photosynthetic light response models. Failed convergence often occurs due to wrongly selected initial values when using currently available methods, especially the kind of local optimization. There are no reliable methods that can resolve the conundrum of selecting appropriate initial values. After comparing the performance of the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm and other three algorithms for global optimization, we develop a general method for parameter estimation in four photosynthetic light response models, based on the use of Differential Evolution (DE). The new method was shown to successfully provide good fits (R2 > 0.98) and robust parameter estimates for 42 datasets collected for 21 plant species under the same initial values. It suggests that the DE algorithm can efficiently resolve the issue of hyper initial-value sensitivity when using local optimization methods. Therefore, the DE method can be applied to fit the light-response curves of various species without considering the initial values. PMID:27291688

  4. [RAN: A computer program to estimate random response patterns in objective tests Computar program for random response].

    PubMed

    Merino Soto, César; López Pina, José

    2010-05-01

    In the psychological measurement, especially in personality, the paper-pencil method is the usual device between the psychologist and allied professions. The score obtained by a person examined can have questionable validity if the responses were random. To identify this problem, different methods have been used. The random response is a challenging situation for the measurement research and diagnosis in cognitive performance and personality, when they have been measured by test of dichotomous type. In this study a computer program that implements the Charter's method of point estimate and confidence intervals is presented in order to identify if the score obtained can be considered random. We analyze and discuss this program uses in the research and professional practice.

  5. Efficient Algorithms for Estimating the Absorption Spectrum within Linear Response TDDFT

    SciTech Connect

    Brabec, Jiri; Lin, Lin; Shao, Meiyue; Govind, Niranjan; Yang, Chao; Saad, Yousef; Ng, Esmond

    2015-10-06

    We present two iterative algorithms for approximating the absorption spectrum of molecules within linear response of time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) framework. These methods do not attempt to compute eigenvalues or eigenvectors of the linear response matrix. They are designed to approximate the absorption spectrum as a function directly. They take advantage of the special structure of the linear response matrix. Neither method requires the linear response matrix to be constructed explicitly. They only require a procedure that performs the multiplication of the linear response matrix with a vector. These methods can also be easily modified to efficiently estimate the density of states (DOS) of the linear response matrix without computing the eigenvalues of this matrix. We show by computational experiments that the methods proposed in this paper can be much more efficient than methods that are based on the exact diagonalization of the linear response matrix. We show that they can also be more efficient than real-time TDDFT simulations. We compare the pros and cons of these methods in terms of their accuracy as well as their computational and storage cost.

  6. Impediments to predicting site response: Seismic property estimation and modeling simplifications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thompson, E.M.; Baise, L.G.; Kayen, R.E.; Guzina, B.B.

    2009-01-01

    We compare estimates of the empirical transfer function (ETF) to the plane SH-wave theoretical transfer function (TTF) within a laterally constant medium for invasive and noninvasive estimates of the seismic shear-wave slownesses at 13 Kiban-Kyoshin network stations throughout Japan. The difference between the ETF and either of the TTFs is substantially larger than the difference between the two TTFs computed from different estimates of the seismic properties. We show that the plane SH-wave TTF through a laterally homogeneous medium at vertical incidence inadequately models observed amplifications at most sites for both slowness estimates, obtained via downhole measurements and the spectral analysis of surface waves. Strategies to improve the predictions can be separated into two broad categories: improving the measurement of soil properties and improving the theory that maps the 1D soil profile onto spectral amplification. Using an example site where the 1D plane SH-wave formulation poorly predicts the ETF, we find a more satisfactory fit to the ETF by modeling the full wavefield and incorporating spatially correlated variability of the seismic properties. We conclude that our ability to model the observed site response transfer function is limited largely by the assumptions of the theoretical formulation rather than the uncertainty of the soil property estimates.

  7. Classes of Split-Plot Response Surface Designs for Equivalent Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, Peter A.; Kowalski, Scott M.; Vining, G. Geoffrey

    2006-01-01

    When planning an experimental investigation, we are frequently faced with factors that are difficult or time consuming to manipulate, thereby making complete randomization impractical. A split-plot structure differentiates between the experimental units associated with these hard-to-change factors and others that are relatively easy-to-change and provides an efficient strategy that integrates the restrictions imposed by the experimental apparatus. Several industrial and scientific examples are presented to illustrate design considerations encountered in the restricted randomization context. In this paper, we propose classes of split-plot response designs that provide an intuitive and natural extension from the completely randomized context. For these designs, the ordinary least squares estimates of the model are equivalent to the generalized least squares estimates. This property provides best linear unbiased estimators and simplifies model estimation. The design conditions that allow for equivalent estimation are presented enabling design construction strategies to transform completely randomized Box-Behnken, equiradial, and small composite designs into a split-plot structure.

  8. Centralized web-based loss estimation tool: INLET for disaster response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huyck, C. K.; Chung, H.-C.; Cho, S.; Mio, M. Z.; Ghosh, S.; Eguchi, R. T.; Mehrotra, S.

    2006-03-01

    In the years following the 1994 Northridge earthquake, many researchers in the earthquake community focused on the development of GIS-based loss estimation tools such as HAZUS. These highly customizable programs have many users, and different results after an event can be problematic. Online IMS (Internet Map Servers) offer a centralized system where data, model updates and results cascade to all users. INLET (Internet-based Loss Estimation Tool) is the first online real-time loss estimation system available to the emergency management and response community within Southern California. In the event of a significant earthquake, Perl scripts written to respond to USGS ShakeCast notifications will call INLET routines that use USGS ShakeMaps to estimate losses within minutes after an event. INLET incorporates extensive publicly available GIS databases and uses damage functions simplified from FEMA's HAZUS (R) software. INLET currently estimates building damage, transportation impacts, and casualties. The online model simulates the effects of earthquakes, in the context of the larger RESCUE project, in order to test the integration of IT in evacuation routing. The simulation tool provides a "testbed" environment for researchers to model the effect that disaster awareness and route familiarity can have on traffic congestion and evacuation time.

  9. Estimation of a Ramsay-Curve Item Response Theory Model by the Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro Algorithm

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Monroe, Scott; Cai, Li

    2014-01-01

    In Ramsay curve item response theory (RC-IRT) modeling, the shape of the latent trait distribution is estimated simultaneously with the item parameters. In its original implementation, RC-IRT is estimated via Bock and Aitkin's EM algorithm, which yields maximum marginal likelihood estimates. This method, however, does not produce the…

  10. Estimated variability of real-ear insertion response (REIR) due to loudspeaker type and placement.

    PubMed

    Stone, Michael A; Moore, Brian C

    2004-05-01

    The real-ear insertion response (REIR) of a hearing aid is estimated as the difference between the aided response and the unaided response in the ear canal. Changes in the position of the loudspeaker relative to the head, between the two measurements, may reduce the accuracy of the estimate. The spatial variability of the sound field at distances close to the loudspeaker is less for a 'flat-panel' loudspeaker than for a conventional cone loudspeaker; the panel might thus lead to a reduced influence of loud-speaker position. To assess this, we measured the real-ear unaided response (REUR) as each of three loudspeakers (two cone type and one panel) was moved in a three-dimensional space centred at either 0 degrees or 45 degrees azimuth, at a distance of 50cm from a KEMAR manikin. Contrary to our expectation, the variability of the REUR was larger for the panel than for the cone loudspeakers The REUR varied less with position for the 0 degrees than for the 45 degrees azimuth. The variability of the REUR decreased with increasing distance of the loudspeaker from KEMAR. We tentatively suggest that loudspeaker-to-client distances of 40-50 cm should be used and that a 0 degrees azimuth is preferable.

  11. Estimation of Supersonic Stage Separation Aerodynamics of Winged-Body Launch Vehicles Using Response Surface Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Erickson, Gary E.; Deloach, Richard

    2008-01-01

    A collection of statistical and mathematical techniques referred to as response surface methodology was used to estimate the longitudinal stage separation aerodynamic characteristics of a generic, bimese, winged multi-stage launch vehicle configuration using data obtained on small-scale models at supersonic speeds in the NASA Langley Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The simulated Mach 3 staging was dominated by multiple shock wave interactions between the orbiter and booster vehicles throughout the relative spatial locations of interest. This motivated a partitioning of the overall inference space into several contiguous regions within which the separation aerodynamics were presumed to be well-behaved and estimable using cuboidal and spherical central composite designs capable of fitting full second-order response functions. The primary goal was to approximate the underlying overall aerodynamic response surfaces of the booster vehicle in belly-to-belly proximity to the orbiter vehicle using relatively simple, lower-order polynomial functions that were piecewise-continuous across the full independent variable ranges of interest. The quality of fit and prediction capabilities of the empirical models were assessed in detail, and the issue of subspace boundary discontinuities was addressed. The potential benefits of augmenting the central composite designs to full third order using computer-generated D-optimality criteria were also evaluated. The usefulness of central composite designs, the subspace sizing, and the practicality of fitting low-order response functions over a partitioned inference space dominated by highly nonlinear and possibly discontinuous shock-induced aerodynamics are discussed.

  12. A Pre-computed Brain Response Atlas for Instantaneous Strain Estimation in Contact Sports.

    PubMed

    Ji, Songbai; Zhao, Wei

    2015-08-01

    Finite element models of the human head play an important role in investigating the mechanisms of traumatic brain injury, including sports concussion. A critical limitation, however, is that they incur a substantial computational cost to simulate even a single impact. Therefore, current simulation schemes significantly hamper brain injury studies based on model-estimated tissue-level responses. In this study, we present a pre-computed brain response atlas (pcBRA) to substantially increase the simulation efficiency in estimating brain strains using isolated rotational acceleration impulses parameterized with four independent variables (peak magnitude and duration, and rotational axis azimuth and elevation angles) with values determined from on-field measurements. Using randomly generated testing datasets, the partially established pcBRA achieved a 100% success rate in interpolation based on element-wise differences in accumulated peak strain ([Formula: see text]) according to a "double-10%" criterion or average regional [Formula: see text] in generic regions and the corpus callosum. A similar performance was maintained in extrapolation. The pcBRA performance was further successfully validated against directly simulated responses from two independently measured typical real-world rotational profiles. The computational cost to estimate element-wise whole-brain or regional [Formula: see text] was 6 s and <0.01 s, respectively, vs. ~50 min directly simulating a 40 ms impulse. These findings suggest the pcBRA could substantially increase the throughput in impact simulation without significant loss of accuracy from the estimation itself and, thus, its potential to accelerate the exploration of the mechanisms of sports concussion in general. If successful, the pcBRA may also become a diagnostic adjunct in conjunction with sensors that measure head impact kinematics on the field to objectively monitor and identify tissue-level brain trauma in real-time for "return

  13. Bayesian dose-response analysis for epidemiological studies with complex uncertainty in dose estimation.

    PubMed

    Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian E; Simon, Steven L

    2016-02-10

    Most conventional risk analysis methods rely on a single best estimate of exposure per person, which does not allow for adjustment for exposure-related uncertainty. Here, we propose a Bayesian model averaging method to properly quantify the relationship between radiation dose and disease outcomes by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainty in estimated dose. Our Bayesian risk analysis method utilizes multiple realizations of sets (vectors) of doses generated by a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation method that properly separates shared and unshared errors in dose estimation. The exposure model used in this work is taken from a study of the risk of thyroid nodules among a cohort of 2376 subjects who were exposed to fallout from nuclear testing in Kazakhstan. We assessed the performance of our method through an extensive series of simulations and comparisons against conventional regression risk analysis methods. When the estimated doses contain relatively small amounts of uncertainty, the Bayesian method using multiple a priori plausible draws of dose vectors gave similar results to the conventional regression-based methods of dose-response analysis. However, when large and complex mixtures of shared and unshared uncertainties are present, the Bayesian method using multiple dose vectors had significantly lower relative bias than conventional regression-based risk analysis methods and better coverage, that is, a markedly increased capability to include the true risk coefficient within the 95% credible interval of the Bayesian-based risk estimate. An evaluation of the dose-response using our method is presented for an epidemiological study of thyroid disease following radiation exposure.

  14. Excitation, response, and fatigue life estimation methods for the structural design of externally blown flaps

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ungar, E. E.; Chandiramani, K. L.; Barger, J. E.

    1972-01-01

    Means for predicting the fluctuating pressures acting on externally blown flap surfaces are developed on the basis of generalizations derived from non-dimensionalized empirical data. Approaches for estimation of the fatigue lives of skin-stringer and honeycomb-core sandwich flap structures are derived from vibration response analyses and panel fatigue data. Approximate expressions for fluctuating pressures, structural response, and fatigue life are combined to reveal the important parametric dependences. The two-dimensional equations of motion of multi-element flap systems are derived in general form, so that they can be specialized readily for any particular system. An introduction is presented of an approach to characterizing the excitation pressures and structural responses which makes use of space-time spectral concepts and promises to provide useful insights, as well as experimental and analytical savings.

  15. Bivariate extreme value distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elshamy, M.

    1992-01-01

    In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

  16. Bacterial responses to fluctuations and extremes in temperature and brine salinity at the surface of Arctic winter sea ice.

    PubMed

    Ewert, Marcela; Deming, Jody W

    2014-08-01

    Wintertime measurements near Barrow, Alaska, showed that bacteria near the surface of first-year sea ice and in overlying saline snow experience more extreme temperatures and salinities, and wider fluctuations in both parameters, than bacteria deeper in the ice. To examine impacts of such conditions on bacterial survival, two Arctic isolates with different environmental tolerances were subjected to winter-freezing conditions, with and without the presence of organic solutes involved in osmoprotection: proline, choline, or glycine betaine. Obligate psychrophile Colwellia psychrerythraea strain 34H suffered cell losses under all treatments, with maximal loss after 15-day exposure to temperatures fluctuating between -7 and -25 °C. Osmoprotectants significantly reduced the losses, implying that salinity rather than temperature extremes presents the greater stress for this organism. In contrast, psychrotolerant Psychrobacter sp. strain 7E underwent miniaturization and fragmentation under both fluctuating and stable-freezing conditions, with cell numbers increasing in most cases, implying a different survival strategy that may include enhanced dispersal. Thus, the composition and abundance of the bacterial community that survives in winter sea ice may depend on the extent to which overlying snow buffers against extreme temperature and salinity conditions and on the availability of solutes that mitigate osmotic shock, especially during melting.

  17. Joint maximum likelihood estimation of activation and Hemodynamic Response Function for fMRI.

    PubMed

    Bazargani, Negar; Nosratinia, Aria

    2014-07-01

    Blood Oxygen Level Dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) maps the brain activity by measuring blood oxygenation level, which is related to brain activity via a temporal impulse response function known as the Hemodynamic Response Function (HRF). The HRF varies from subject to subject and within areas of the brain, therefore a knowledge of HRF is necessary for accurately computing voxel activations. Conversely a knowledge of active voxels is highly beneficial for estimating the HRF. This work presents a joint maximum likelihood estimation of HRF and activation based on low-rank matrix approximations operating on regions of interest (ROI). Since each ROI has limited data, a smoothing constraint on the HRF is employed via Tikhonov regularization. The method is analyzed under both white noise and colored noise. Experiments with synthetic data show that accurate estimation of the HRF is possible with this method without prior assumptions on the exact shape of the HRF. Further experiments involving real fMRI experiments with auditory stimuli are used to validate the proposed method.

  18. Estimating transient climate response using consistent temperature reconstruction methods in models and observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, M.; Cowtan, K.; Hawkins, E.; Stolpe, M.

    2015-12-01

    Observational temperature records such as HadCRUT4 typically have incomplete geographical coverage and blend air temperature over land with sea surface temperatures over ocean, in contrast to model output which is commonly reported as global air temperature. This complicates estimation of properties such as the transient climate response (TCR). Observation-based estimates of TCR have been made using energy-budget constraints applied to time series of historical radiative forcing and surface temperature changes, while model TCR is formally derived from simulations where CO2 increases at 1% per year. We perform a like-with-like comparison using three published energy-budget methods to derive modelled TCR from historical CMIP5 temperature series sampled in a manner consistent with HadCRUT4. Observation-based TCR estimates agree to within 0.12 K of the multi-model mean in each case and for 2 of the 3 energy-budget methods the observation-based TCR is higher than the multi-model mean. For one energy-budget method, using the HadCRUT4 blending method leads to a TCR underestimate of 0.3±0.1 K, relative to that estimated using global near-surface air temperatures.

  19. Panel regressions to estimate low-flow response to rainfall variability in ungaged basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bassiouni, Maoya; Vogel, Richard M.; Archfield, Stacey A.

    2016-12-01

    Multicollinearity and omitted-variable bias are major limitations to developing multiple linear regression models to estimate streamflow characteristics in ungaged areas and varying rainfall conditions. Panel regression is used to overcome limitations of traditional regression methods, and obtain reliable model coefficients, in particular to understand the elasticity of streamflow to rainfall. Using annual rainfall and selected basin characteristics at 86 gaged streams in the Hawaiian Islands, regional regression models for three stream classes were developed to estimate the annual low-flow duration discharges. Three panel-regression structures (random effects, fixed effects, and pooled) were compared to traditional regression methods, in which space is substituted for time. Results indicated that panel regression generally was able to reproduce the temporal behavior of streamflow and reduce the standard errors of model coefficients compared to traditional regression, even for models in which the unobserved heterogeneity between streams is significant and the variance inflation factor for rainfall is much greater than 10. This is because both spatial and temporal variability were better characterized in panel regression. In a case study, regional rainfall elasticities estimated from panel regressions were applied to ungaged basins on Maui, using available rainfall projections to estimate plausible changes in surface-water availability and usable stream habitat for native species. The presented panel-regression framework is shown to offer benefits over existing traditional hydrologic regression methods for developing robust regional relations to investigate streamflow response in a changing climate.

  20. Estimating Hydraulic Properties for Hawaiian Aquifers Using Aquifer Tests and Tidal Responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rotzoll, K.; El-Kadi, A. I.

    2005-12-01

    In the last 30 years the population of the island of Maui, Hawaii, has significantly increased and so has the ground-water demand. To ensure prudent management of the ground-water resources, an improved understanding of ground-water flow systems is needed. At present, no large-scale estimation of the aquifer properties has been completed for Maui. Ground-water flow and chemical transport depends highly on aquifer characteristics such as storage properties and hydraulic conductivity or transmissivity. The suitability of several methods is examined for a number of Hawaiian aquifers. Seven analytical methods using constant and variable-rate withdrawals in a single well provide an estimate of hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity for over 100 wells in central Maui. The spatial distribution permits to form regional clusters of similar hydraulic conductivity. The response of the harmonic ocean tide signal in several wells in the aquifer is investigated. Analytical methods and numerical modeling allow estimating aquifer diffusivity. Results of this analysis are in general agreement with typical values for confined and unconfined aquifers in central Maui. The results of this study will provide information needed to build a numerical ground-water flow model for central Maui in order to estimate ground-water availability.

  1. Revisiting the 4-Parameter Item Response Model: Bayesian Estimation and Application.

    PubMed

    Culpepper, Steven Andrew

    2016-12-01

    There has been renewed interest in Barton and Lord's (An upper asymptote for the three-parameter logistic item response model (Tech. Rep. No. 80-20). Educational Testing Service, 1981) four-parameter item response model. This paper presents a Bayesian formulation that extends Béguin and Glas (MCMC estimation and some model fit analysis of multidimensional IRT models. Psychometrika, 66 (4):541-561, 2001) and proposes a model for the four-parameter normal ogive (4PNO) model. Monte Carlo evidence is presented concerning the accuracy of parameter recovery. The simulation results support the use of less informative uniform priors for the lower and upper asymptotes, which is an advantage to prior research. Monte Carlo results provide some support for using the deviance information criterion and [Formula: see text] index to choose among models with two, three, and four parameters. The 4PNO is applied to 7491 adolescents' responses to a bullying scale collected under the 2005-2006 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children study. The results support the value of the 4PNO to estimate lower and upper asymptotes in large-scale surveys.

  2. Estimating Large-Customer Demand Response Market Potential:Integrating Price and Customer Behavior

    SciTech Connect

    Goldman, Charles; Hopper, Nicole; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan,Bernie; Cappers, Peter

    2007-06-01

    ABSTRACT=Demand response (DR) is increasingly recognized asan essential ingredient to well-functioning electricity markets. DRmarket potential studies can answer questions about the amount of DRavailable in a given area, from which market segments. Several recent DRmarket potential studies have been conducted, most adapting techniquesused to estimate energy-efficiency (EE) potential. In this scoping study,we: reviewed and categorized seven recent DR market potential studies;recommended a methodology for estimating DR market potential for large,non-residential utility customers that uses price elasticities to accountfor behavior and prices; compiled participation rates and elasticityvalues from six DR options offered to large customers in recent years,and demonstrated our recommended methodology with large customer marketpotential scenarios at an illustrative Northeastern utility. We recommendan elasticity approach for large-customer DR options that rely oncusto!

  3. Trying to Learn Lessons for Response to Extreme Events: Paradigm Shifts Affecting Civil Defense in the Trinational Region of Southwestern Amazonia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, G. L. P.

    2015-12-01

    The last ten years have seen several extreme climate events in southwestern Amazonia with historic impacts. The City of Rio Branco, Capital of Acre, Brazil´s westernmost State, suffered its seventh consecutive annual flooding and its worst in March 2015. The city of Tarauacá, also in Acre, registered 12 flooding events between November 2014 and April 2015. The most recent flood of the trinational Acre River in 2015 set historic records for flood stage and number of displaced persons in Cobija, the Capital of Pando, Bolivia. From February to April 2014, floods of the Madeira River disrupted the one highway between Acre and southern Brazil. Puerto Maldonado, the capital in Madre de Dios Region of Peru had its worst flood in 50 years during 2014. In 2005 and 2010, prolonged droughts combined with ignition sources resulted in tens to hundreds of thousands of hectares of fire-damaged rainforests in the Madre de Dios, Acre and Pando (MAP) Region. The Civil Defenses in these three contiguous political units faced several abrupt paradigm shifts that affected their responses: 1) The drought of 2005 showed dramatically that regional rainforests do burn; 2) The recent flooding history, particularly in 2012 and 2015, demolished the cultural icon of a nine-year recurrence interval; 3) What happens outside your territory can be devastating. The Madeira River flood impeded an estimated 200 million dollars from circulating in Acre; 4) The past can be a terrible guide. For Cobija and Rio Branco, the 2015 flood was on the order of a meter higher than any other. Many home dwellers did not evacuate in time because they used past floods as a guide; 5) A collapse in communication - cell phones, land lines, and Internet - can get worse. In 2012, such a collapse occurred in two border towns for 5 days, yet in 2015 it lasted more than 11 days. Research is needed to address how institutions linked to Civil Defense can shift paradigms in time to be more effective.

  4. Development and validation of a two-dimensional fast-response flood estimation model

    SciTech Connect

    Judi, David R; Mcpherson, Timothy N; Burian, Steven J

    2009-01-01

    A finite difference formulation of the shallow water equations using an upwind differencing method was developed maintaining computational efficiency and accuracy such that it can be used as a fast-response flood estimation tool. The model was validated using both laboratory controlled experiments and an actual dam breach. Through the laboratory experiments, the model was shown to give good estimations of depth and velocity when compared to the measured data, as well as when compared to a more complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies show that a relatively numerical scheme used to solve the complete shallow water equations can be used to accurately estimate flood inundation. Future work will focus on further reducing the computation time needed to provide flood inundation estimates for fast-response analyses. This will be accomplished through the efficient use of multi-core, multi-processor computers coupled with an efficient domain-tracking algorithm, as well as an understanding of the impacts of grid resolution on model results.

  5. Estimation of Channel-Forming Discharge and Large-Event Geomorphic Response Using HEC-RAS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamilton, P.; Strom, K.; Hosseiny, S. M. H.

    2015-12-01

    The goal of the present work was to consider the functionality and applicability of HEC-RAS sediment transport simulations in two situations. The first was as a mode for obtaining quick estimates of the effective discharge, one measure of channel-forming discharge, and the second was as a mode to quickly estimate sediment transport and the commensurate potential erosion and deposition during large flood events. Though there are many other sediment transport and morphodynamic models available, e.g., CCHE1D, Nays2DH, we were interested in using HEC-RAS since this is the model of choice for many regulatory bodies, e.g., FEMA, cities, and counties. This makes using the sediment transport capability of HEC-RAS a natural extension of models that already otherwise exist and are well calibrated. In first looking at the utility of these models, we wanted to estimate the effective discharge of streams. Effective discharge is one way of defining the channel-forming discharge for a stream and is therefore an important parameter in natural channel design and restoration efforts. By running this range of floods, one can easily obtain an estimate for recurrence interval most responsible for moving the majority of sediment over a long time period. Results were compared to data collected within our research group on the Brazos River (TX). Effective discharge is an important estimate, particularly in understanding the equilibrium channel condition. Nevertheless, large floods are contemporaneously catastrophic and understanding their potential effects is desirable. Finally, we performed some sensitivity analysis to better understand the underlying assumptions of the various sediment transport model options and how they might affect the outcome of the aforementioned computations.

  6. Estimating multivariate response surface model with data outliers, case study in enhancing surface layer properties of an aircraft aluminium alloy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Widodo, Edy; Kariyam

    2017-03-01

    To determine the input variable settings that create the optimal compromise in response variable used Response Surface Methodology (RSM). There are three primary steps in the RSM problem, namely data collection, modelling, and optimization. In this study focused on the establishment of response surface models, using the assumption that the data produced is correct. Usually the response surface model parameters are estimated by OLS. However, this method is highly sensitive to outliers. Outliers can generate substantial residual and often affect the estimator models. Estimator models produced can be biased and could lead to errors in the determination of the optimal point of fact, that the main purpose of RSM is not reached. Meanwhile, in real life, the collected data often contain some response variable and a set of independent variables. Treat each response separately and apply a single response procedures can result in the wrong interpretation. So we need a development model for the multi-response case. Therefore, it takes a multivariate model of the response surface that is resistant to outliers. As an alternative, in this study discussed on M-estimation as a parameter estimator in multivariate response surface models containing outliers. As an illustration presented a case study on the experimental results to the enhancement of the surface layer of aluminium alloy air by shot peening.

  7. The Impact of Outliers on Cronbach's Coefficient Alpha Estimate of Reliability: Ordinal/Rating Scale Item Responses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Yan; Wu, Amery D.; Zumbo, Bruno D.

    2010-01-01

    In a recent Monte Carlo simulation study, Liu and Zumbo showed that outliers can severely inflate the estimates of Cronbach's coefficient alpha for continuous item response data--visual analogue response format. Little, however, is known about the effect of outliers for ordinal item response data--also commonly referred to as Likert, Likert-type,…

  8. Estimating the pi* goodness of fit index for finite mixtures of item response models.

    PubMed

    Revuelta, Javier

    2008-05-01

    Testing the fit of finite mixture models is a difficult task, since asymptotic results on the distribution of likelihood ratio statistics do not hold; for this reason, alternative statistics are needed. This paper applies the pi* goodness of fit statistic to finite mixture item response models. The pi* statistic assumes that the population is composed of two subpopulations - those that follow a parametric model and a residual group outside the model; pi* is defined as the proportion of population in the residual group. The population was divided into two or more groups, or classes. Several groups followed an item response model and there was also a residual group. The paper presents maximum likelihood algorithms for estimating item parameters, the probabilities of the groups and pi*. The paper also includes a simulation study on goodness of recovery for the two- and three-parameter logistic models and an example with real data from a multiple choice test.

  9. A Bayesian method to estimate the neutron response matrix of a single crystal CVD diamond detector

    SciTech Connect

    Reginatto, Marcel; Araque, Jorge Guerrero; Nolte, Ralf; Zbořil, Miroslav; Zimbal, Andreas; Gagnon-Moisan, Francis

    2015-01-13

    Detectors made from artificial chemical vapor deposition (CVD) single crystal diamond are very promising candidates for applications where high resolution neutron spectrometry in very high neutron fluxes is required, for example in fusion research. We propose a Bayesian method to estimate the neutron response function of the detector for a continuous range of neutron energies (in our case, 10 MeV ≤ E{sub n} ≤ 16 MeV) based on a few measurements with quasi-monoenergetic neutrons. This method is needed because a complete set of measurements is not available and the alternative approach of using responses based on Monte Carlo calculations is not feasible. Our approach uses Bayesian signal-background separation techniques and radial basis function interpolation methods. We present the analysis of data measured at the PTB accelerator facility PIAF. The method is quite general and it can be applied to other particle detectors with similar characteristics.

  10. A Bayesian method to estimate the neutron response matrix of a single crystal CVD diamond detector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reginatto, Marcel; Gagnon-Moisan, Francis; Araque, Jorge Guerrero; Nolte, Ralf; Zbořil, Miroslav; Zimbal, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Detectors made from artificial chemical vapor deposition (CVD) single crystal diamond are very promising candidates for applications where high resolution neutron spectrometry in very high neutron fluxes is required, for example in fusion research. We propose a Bayesian method to estimate the neutron response function of the detector for a continuous range of neutron energies (in our case, 10 MeV ≤ En ≤ 16 MeV) based on a few measurements with quasi-monoenergetic neutrons. This method is needed because a complete set of measurements is not available and the alternative approach of using responses based on Monte Carlo calculations is not feasible. Our approach uses Bayesian signal-background separation techniques and radial basis function interpolation methods. We present the analysis of data measured at the PTB accelerator facility PIAF. The method is quite general and it can be applied to other particle detectors with similar characteristics.

  11. CYTOGENETIC AND MOLECULAR RESPONSES OF AMMONIUM SULPHATE APPLICATION FOR TOLERANCE TO EXTREME TEMPERATURES IN VICIA FABA L.

    PubMed

    Öney, S; Tabur, S; Tuna, M

    2015-01-01

    Effects of ammonium sulphate [(NH4)2SO4] on mitosis, cell cycle and chromosomes in Vicia faba L. seeds exposed to extreme temperatures were investigated using flowcytometric and cytogenetic analysis. Seeds germinated at high and low temperatures showed a signiicant decrease in mitotic index as compared to those of optimum temperature conditions. Application of 50 and 1000 µM (NH4)2SO4 were successful in alleviating the negative effects of low and high temperature on mitotic activity, respectively. 50 µM (NH4)2SO4 showed the most positive effect on cell cycle at the extreme temperatures. This concentration increased the cell division removing or decreasing the negative effects of temperature stress. Namely, the highest G2/M and S phase percentages under stress conditions were obtained with application of 50 µM (NH4)2SO4. Chromosomal aberrations were not observed in cells of seeds germinated in distilled water and also at any temperatures. However, the frequency of chromosomal aberrations increased significantly by increasing (NH4)2SO4 concentration. The highest aberration frequency in all temperature degree tested was found at 1000 µM (NH4)2SO4 concentration.

  12. Real-Time Frequency Response Estimation Using Joined-Wing SensorCraft Aeroelastic Wind-Tunnel Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grauer, Jared A; Heeg, Jennifer; Morelli, Eugene A

    2012-01-01

    A new method is presented for estimating frequency responses and their uncertainties from wind-tunnel data in real time. The method uses orthogonal phase-optimized multi- sine excitation inputs and a recursive Fourier transform with a least-squares estimator. The method was first demonstrated with an F-16 nonlinear flight simulation and results showed that accurate short period frequency responses were obtained within 10 seconds. The method was then applied to wind-tunnel data from a previous aeroelastic test of the Joined- Wing SensorCraft. Frequency responses describing bending strains from simultaneous control surface excitations were estimated in a time-efficient manner.

  13. TREFEX: trend estimation and change detection in the response of MOX gas sensors.

    PubMed

    Pashami, Sepideh; Lilienthal, Achim J; Schaffernicht, Erik; Trincavelli, Marco

    2013-06-04

    Many applications of metal oxide gas sensors can benefit from reliable algorithms to detect significant changes in the sensor response. Significant changes indicate a change in the emission modality of a distant gas source and occur due to a sudden change of concentration or exposure to a different compound. As a consequence of turbulent gas transport and the relatively slow response and recovery times of metal oxide sensors, their response in open sampling configuration exhibits strong fluctuations that interfere with the changes of interest. In this paper we introduce TREFEX, a novel change point detection algorithm, especially designed for metal oxide gas sensors in an open sampling system. TREFEX models the response of MOX sensors as a piecewise exponential signal and considers the junctions between consecutive exponentials as change points. We formulate non-linear trend filtering and change point detection as a parameter-free convex optimization problem for single sensors and sensor arrays. We evaluate the performance of the TREFEX algorithm experimentally for different metal oxide sensors and several gas emission profiles. A comparison with the previously proposed GLR method shows a clearly superior performance of the TREFEX algorithm both in detection performance and in estimating the change time.

  14. Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, Mark; Cowtan, Kevin; Hawkins, Ed; Stolpe, Martin B.

    2016-10-01

    Climate risks increase with mean global temperature, so knowledge about the amount of future global warming should better inform risk assessments for policymakers. Expected near-term warming is encapsulated by the transient climate response (TCR), formally defined as the warming following 70 years of 1% per year increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, by which point atmospheric CO2 has doubled. Studies based on Earth's historical energy budget have typically estimated lower values of TCR than climate models, suggesting that some models could overestimate future warming. However, energy-budget estimates rely on historical temperature records that are geographically incomplete and blend air temperatures over land and sea ice with water temperatures over open oceans. We show that there is no evidence that climate models overestimate TCR when their output is processed in the same way as the HadCRUT4 observation-based temperature record. Models suggest that air-temperature warming is 24% greater than observed by HadCRUT4 over 1861-2009 because slower-warming regions are preferentially sampled and water warms less than air. Correcting for these biases and accounting for wider uncertainties in radiative forcing based on recent evidence, we infer an observation-based best estimate for TCR of 1.66 °C, with a 5-95% range of 1.0-3.3 °C, consistent with the climate models considered in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report.

  15. Techniques for estimating the unknown functions of incomplete experimental spectral and correlation response matrices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antunes, Jose; Borsoi, Laurent; Delaune, Xavier; Piteau, Philippe

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, we propose analytical and numerical straightforward approximate methods to estimate the unknown terms of incomplete spectral or correlation matrices, when the cross-spectra or cross-correlations available from multiple measurements do not cover all pairs of transducer locations. The proposed techniques may be applied whenever the available data includes the auto-spectra at all measurement locations, as well as selected cross-spectra which implicates all measurement locations. The suggested methods can also be used for checking the consistency between the spectral or correlation functions pertaining to measurement matrices, in cases of suspicious data. After presenting the proposed spectral estimation formulations, we discuss their merits and limitations. Then we illustrate their use on a realistic simulation of a multi-supported tube subjected to turbulence excitation from cross-flow. Finally, we show the effectiveness of the proposed techniques by extracting the modal responses of the simulated flow-excited tube, using the SOBI (Second Order Blind Identification) method, from an incomplete response matrix 1

  16. Estimating Cosmic-Ray Spectral Parameters from Simulated Detector Responses with Detector Design Implications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howell, L. W.

    2001-01-01

    A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index (alpha-1) is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at knee energy (E(sub k)) to a steeper spectral index alpha-2 > alpha-1 above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic-ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

  17. Extreme Heat

    MedlinePlus

    ... Emergencies Biological Threats Chemical Threats Cyber Incident Drought Earthquakes Extreme Heat Explosions Floods Hazardous Materials Incidents Home ... Emergencies Biological Threats Chemical Threats Cyber ... Heat Explosions Floods Hazardous Materials Incidents Home ...

  18. Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity

    PubMed Central

    Koven, Charles D.; Randerson, James T.

    2016-01-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment. PMID:27573831

  19. Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swann, Abigail L. S.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; Randerson, James T.

    2016-09-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment.

  20. Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity.

    PubMed

    Swann, Abigail L S; Hoffman, Forrest M; Koven, Charles D; Randerson, James T

    2016-09-06

    Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment.

  1. The relationship between purely stochastic sampling error and the number of technical replicates used to estimate concentration at an extreme dilution.

    PubMed

    Irwin, Peter L; Nguyen, Ly-Huong T; Chen, Chin-Yi

    2010-09-01

    For any analytical system the population mean (μ) number of entities (e.g., cells or molecules) per tested volume, surface area, or mass also defines the population standard deviation (σ = square root(μ)). For a preponderance of analytical methods, σ is very small relative to μ due to their large limit of detection (>10(2) per volume). However, in theory at least, DNA-based detection methods (real-time, quantitative or qPCR) can detect ≈ 1 DNA molecule per tested volume (i.e., μ ≈ 1) whereupon errors of random sampling can cause sample means (mean) to substantially deviate from μ if the number of samplings (n), or "technical replicates", per observation is too small. In this work the behaviors of two measures of sampling error (each replicated fivefold) are examined under the influence of n. For all data (μ = 1.25, 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, and 20) a large sample of individual analytical counts (x) were created and randomly assigned into N integral-valued sub-samples each containing between 2 and 50 repeats (n) whereupon N × n = 322 to 361. From these data the average μ-normalized deviation of σ from each sub-sample's standard deviation estimate (s(j), j = 1 to N; N = 7 [n = 50] to 180 [n = 2]) was calculated (Δ). Alternatively, the average μ-normalized deviation of μ from each sub-sample's mean estimate (mean(j)) was also evaluated (Δ'). It was found that both of these empirical measures of sampling error were proportional to ⁻²√n . μ. Derivative (∂/∂n · Δ or Δ') analyses of our results indicate that a large number of samplings (n ≈ 33 +/- 3.1) are requisite to achieve a nominal sampling error for samples with a μ ≈ 1. This result argues that pathogen detection is most economically performed, even using highly sensitive techniques such as qPCR, when some form of organism cultural enrichment is utilized and which results in a binomial response. Thus, using a specific gene PCR-based (+ or -) most probable number (MPN

  2. Using Modified Mercalli Intensities to estimate acceleration response spectra for the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boatwright, J.; Bundock, H.; Seekins, L.C.

    2006-01-01

    We derive and test relations between the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) and the pseudo-acceleration response spectra at 1.0 and 0.3 s - SA(1.0 s) and SA(0.3 s) - in order to map response spectral ordinates for the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. Recent analyses of intensity have shown that MMI ??? 6 correlates both with peak ground velocity and with response spectra for periods from 0.5 to 3.0 s. We use these recent results to derive a linear relation between MMI and log SA(1.0 s), and we refine this relation by comparing the SA(1.0 s) estimated from Boatwright and Bundock's (2005) MMI map for the 1906 earthquake to the SA(1.0 s) calculated from recordings of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. South of San Jose, the intensity distributions for the 1906 and 1989 earthquakes are remarkably similar, despite the difference in magnitude and rupture extent between the two events. We use recent strong motion regressions to derive a relation between SA(1.0 s) and SA(0.3 s) for a M7.8 strike-slip earthquake that depends on soil type, acceleration level, and source distance. We test this relation by comparing SA(0.3 s) estimated for the 1906 earthquake to SA(0.3 s) calculated from recordings of both the 1989 Loma Prieta and 1994 Northridge earthquakes, as functions of distance from the fault. ?? 2006, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  3. Active skin perfusion and thermoregulatory response in the hand following nerve injury and repair in human upper extremities.

    PubMed

    Deng, Aidong; Liu, Dan; Gu, Chen; Gu, Xiaosong; Gu, Jianhui; Hu, Wen

    2016-01-01

    Cutaneous vasoconstriction/vasodilatation occurs in response to whole body and local cooling/heating, and the vasomotor activities play a pivotal role in thermal control of the human body. The mechanisms underlying regulation of skin blood flow involve both neurogenic and humeral/local chemical influence, contributing to the initial response to thermal stimuli and the prolonged phase of response, respectively. Previous studies have suggested the impairment of cutaneous thermal regulation after nerve injury. However, the evidence regarding how the skin perfusion and thermoregulatory response evolve after nerve injury and repair remains limited. Here we observed, by utilizing laser-Doppler perfusion imaging, baseline skin perfusion and perfusion change in response to thermal stimuli after median and ulnar nerve injury, and the results showed that baseline perfusion in autonomous skin area profoundly decreased and active rewarming after clod stress dramatically diminished before sensory recovery of the skin became detectable. In addition, baseline cutaneous perfusion was recovered as the skin regained touch sensation, and exhibited positive correlation to touch sensibility of the skin. These data indicate that both active perfusion and thermoregulatory response of the skin are markedly compromised during skin denervation and can be recovered by re-innervation. This suggests the importance of timely repair of injured nerve, especially in the practice of replantation.

  4. Differential Weight Procedure of the Conditional P.D.F. Approach for Estimating the Operating Characteristics of Discrete Item Responses.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Samejima, Fumiko

    A method is proposed that increases the accuracies of estimation of the operating characteristics of discrete item responses, especially when the true operating characteristic is represented by a steep curve, and also at the lower and upper ends of the ability distribution where the estimation tends to be inaccurate because of the smaller number…

  5. Effectiveness of Item Response Theory (IRT) Proficiency Estimation Methods under Adaptive Multistage Testing. Research Report. ETS RR-15-11

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Sooyeon; Moses, Tim; Yoo, Hanwook Henry

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this inquiry was to investigate the effectiveness of item response theory (IRT) proficiency estimators in terms of estimation bias and error under multistage testing (MST). We chose a 2-stage MST design in which 1 adaptation to the examinees' ability levels takes place. It includes 4 modules (1 at Stage 1, 3 at Stage 2) and 3 paths…

  6. Study on the Strategies for the Soil and Water Resource Con-servation of Slopeland in Taiwan in Response to the Extreme Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Wen-Cheng

    2014-05-01

    Global climate change results in extreme weather, especially ex-treme precipitation in Taiwan. Though the total amount of precipi-tation remains unchanged, the frequency of rainfall return period increases which affects slopeland and causes sediment disaster. In Taiwan, slopeland occupies about 73% of national territory. Under harsh environmental stress, soil and water conservation of slope-land becomes more important. In response to the trends of global-ization impacts of climate change, long term strategic planning be-comes more necessary. This study reviewed international practices and decision making process about soil and water conservation of slopeland; and conducted the compilation and analysis of water and soil conservation related research projects in Taiwan within the past five years. It is necessary for Taiwan to design timely adaptive strategies about conducting the all-inclusive conservation of na-tional territory, management and business operation of watershed based on the existing regulation with the effects of extreme weather induced by climate change and the changes of social-economic en-vironments. In order to realize the policy vision of "Under the premise of multiple uses, operating the sustainable business and management of the water and soil resources in the watershed through territorial planning in response to the climate and so-cial-economic environment change". This study concluded the future tasks for soil and water con-servation: 1.Design and timely amend strategies for soil and wand water conservation in response to extreme weather. 2. Strengthen the planning and operating of the land management and integrated conservation of the water and soil resources of key watershed. 3. Manage and operate the prevention of debris flow disaster and large-scale landslide. 4. Formulate polices, related regulations and assessment indicators of soil and water conservation. 5. Maintain the biodiversity of the slopeland and reduce the ecological footprint

  7. Strong Earthquake Motion Estimates for the UCSB Campus, and Related Response of the Engineering 1 Building

    SciTech Connect

    Archuleta, R.; Bonilla, F.; Doroudian, M.; Elgamal, A.; Hueze, F.

    2000-06-06

    This is the second report on the UC/CLC Campus Earthquake Program (CEP), concerning the estimation of exposure of the U.C. Santa Barbara campus to strong earthquake motions (Phase 2 study). The main results of Phase 1 are summarized in the current report. This document describes the studies which resulted in site-specific strong motion estimates for the Engineering I site, and discusses the potential impact of these motions on the building. The main elements of Phase 2 are: (1) determining that a M 6.8 earthquake on the North Channel-Pitas Point (NCPP) fault is the largest threat to the campus. Its recurrence interval is estimated at 350 to 525 years; (2) recording earthquakes from that fault on March 23, 1998 (M 3.2) and May 14, 1999 (M 3.2) at the new UCSB seismic station; (3) using these recordings as empirical Green's functions (EGF) in scenario earthquake simulations which provided strong motion estimates (seismic syntheses) at a depth of 74 m under the Engineering I site; 240 such simulations were performed, each with the same seismic moment, but giving a broad range of motions that were analyzed for their mean and standard deviation; (4) laboratory testing, at U.C. Berkeley and U.C. Los Angeles, of soil samples obtained from drilling at the UCSB station site, to determine their response to earthquake-type loading; (5) performing nonlinear soil dynamic calculations, using the soil properties determined in-situ and in the laboratory, to calculate the surface strong motions resulting from the seismic syntheses at depth; (6) comparing these CEP-generated strong motion estimates to acceleration spectra based on the application of state-of-practice methods - the IBC 2000 code, UBC 97 code and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), this comparison will be used to formulate design-basis spectra for future buildings and retrofits at UCSB; and (7) comparing the response of the Engineering I building to the CEP ground motion estimates and to the design

  8. Estimation of bending wave intensity in beams using the frequency response technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linjama, J.; Lahti, T.

    1992-02-01

    The frequency response approach is applied to the measurement of bending wave intensity, with two or four accelerometers being used. Based on the known structural intensity equations, a comprehensive set of frequency domain expressions is derived for power measurements in a beam. A practical procedure is developed for the general four-transducer method, which allows a usual dual channel FFT analyzer to be employed in multi-channel measurements. The procedure uses the sequential frequency response technique, and is applicable if the situation remains stationary during the data acquisition. In addition, expressions are derived for the determination of the force- and moment-related bending wave power components separately. In a laboratory experiment, the power carried by bending waves was measured in a simple beam, and the methods developed were tested and compared. The frequency response approach was shown to work well in detecting the total power. The estimation of the two bending wave power components, both in the near and the far field, was also demonstrated.

  9. Estimation of the transient response of a tuned, fractionally damped elastomeric isolator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fredette, Luke; Singh, Rajendra

    2016-11-01

    This article addresses the frequency dependent properties of elastomeric vibration isolators in the context of lumped parameter models with fractional damping elements. A mass is placed between two fractional calculus Kelvin-Voigt elements to develop a minimal order system for the example case of a conventional elastomeric bushing typical of automotive suspension systems. Model parameters are acquired from measured dynamic stiffness spectra and a finite element model. The minimal order system model accurately predicts dynamic stiffness in both broadband resonant behavior as well as the lower-frequency regime that is controlled by damping. For transient response analysis, an inverse Laplace transform of the dynamic stiffness spectrum is taken via the Residue Theorem. Since the fractional calculus based solution is given in terms of problematic integrals, a new time-frequency domain estimation technique is proposed which approximates time-domain responses for a class of transient excitation functions. The approximation error is quantified and found to be reasonably small, and tractable closed-form transient response functions are provided along with a discussion of numerical issues.

  10. Multiple linear regression to estimate time-frequency electrophysiological responses in single trials.

    PubMed

    Hu, L; Zhang, Z G; Mouraux, A; Iannetti, G D

    2015-05-01

    oscillations, obtaining single-trial estimate of response latency, frequency, and magnitude. This permits within-subject statistical comparisons, correlation with pre-stimulus features, and integration of simultaneously-recorded EEG and fMRI.

  11. Shear and Turbulence Estimates for Calculation of Wind Turbine Loads and Responses Under Hurricane Strength Winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kosovic, B.; Bryan, G. H.; Haupt, S. E.

    2012-12-01

    would encounter under hurricane strength winds. These flow fields can be used to estimate wind turbine loads and responses with AeroDyn (http://wind.nrel.gov/designcodes/simulators/aerodyn/) and FAST (http://wind.nrel.gov/designcodes/simulators/fast/) codes also developed by NREL.

  12. A combination mode of climate variability responsible for extremely poor recruitment of the Japanese eel (Anguilla japonica).

    PubMed

    Lin, Yong-Fu; Wu, Chau-Ron; Han, Yu-San

    2017-03-16

    Satellite data and assimilation products are used to investigate fluctuations in the catch of Japanese eel (Anguilla japonica) in eastern Asian countries. It has been reported that the salinity front has extended farther south, which has shifted the eel's spawning grounds to a lower latitude, resulting in smaller eel catches in 1983, 1992, and 1998. This study demonstrates that interannual variability in the eel catch is strongly correlated with the combination mode (C-mode), but not with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. These eels continue to spawn within the North Equatorial Current (NEC), but the salinity front shifts south during a canonical El Niño. On the other hand, the spawning grounds accompanied by the salinity front extend farther south during the C-mode of climate variability, and eel larvae fail to join the nursery in the NEC, resulting in extremely poor recruitment in East Asia. We propose an appropriate sea surface temperature index to project Japanese eel larval catch.

  13. Mechanisms for concurrent low-latitude circulation anomalies responsible for persistent extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Yang; Zhai, Panmao

    2016-08-01

    Concurrent position shifts of the mid-level western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the upper-level South Asia high (SAH) are regarded as significant precursors for persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPEs) in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). By performing composite analyses, accountable vorticity genesis and dissipation are diagnosed based on a potential vorticity-diabatic heating theory. The results indicate that about 1 week preceding precipitation onset, a wave-like pattern of anomalous diabatic heating (Q) initiates its northwestward propagation from equatorial central Pacific. Subsequently, this wave-like pattern induces substantial changes in both horizontal and vertical structure of local Q along the propagating route. Forced negative vorticities in key areas result in the zonal approach between the SAH and the WPSH. During PEPEs, two thermal-induced vertical circulation cells take shape, with common strong ascent centered in the YRV. These anomalous cells are capable of self-maintaining for a few days via positive feedback processes. The WPSH and the SAH are therefore anchored in respective favorable positions for PEPEs. Simultaneously, descending motion of these two cells increases local solar radiation and decreases upward latent heat flux from surface, facilitating warmer underlying surface and swift accumulation of lower-level moisture. Correspondingly, enhanced heating to the north and rapid developing cyclone over warmer sea surface to the south combine to terminate above positive feedback processes. Finally, both the WPSH and the SAH retreat to their normal positions, accompanied by a quick decay of PEPEs.

  14. A combination mode of climate variability responsible for extremely poor recruitment of the Japanese eel (Anguilla japonica)

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yong-Fu; Wu, Chau-Ron; Han, Yu-San

    2017-01-01

    Satellite data and assimilation products are used to investigate fluctuations in the catch of Japanese eel (Anguilla japonica) in eastern Asian countries. It has been reported that the salinity front has extended farther south, which has shifted the eel’s spawning grounds to a lower latitude, resulting in smaller eel catches in 1983, 1992, and 1998. This study demonstrates that interannual variability in the eel catch is strongly correlated with the combination mode (C-mode), but not with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. These eels continue to spawn within the North Equatorial Current (NEC), but the salinity front shifts south during a canonical El Niño. On the other hand, the spawning grounds accompanied by the salinity front extend farther south during the C-mode of climate variability, and eel larvae fail to join the nursery in the NEC, resulting in extremely poor recruitment in East Asia. We propose an appropriate sea surface temperature index to project Japanese eel larval catch. PMID:28300135

  15. A combination mode of climate variability responsible for extremely poor recruitment of the Japanese eel (Anguilla japonica)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Yong-Fu; Wu, Chau-Ron; Han, Yu-San

    2017-03-01

    Satellite data and assimilation products are used to investigate fluctuations in the catch of Japanese eel (Anguilla japonica) in eastern Asian countries. It has been reported that the salinity front has extended farther south, which has shifted the eel’s spawning grounds to a lower latitude, resulting in smaller eel catches in 1983, 1992, and 1998. This study demonstrates that interannual variability in the eel catch is strongly correlated with the combination mode (C-mode), but not with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. These eels continue to spawn within the North Equatorial Current (NEC), but the salinity front shifts south during a canonical El Niño. On the other hand, the spawning grounds accompanied by the salinity front extend farther south during the C-mode of climate variability, and eel larvae fail to join the nursery in the NEC, resulting in extremely poor recruitment in East Asia. We propose an appropriate sea surface temperature index to project Japanese eel larval catch.

  16. [The body's responsiveness and the efficiency of antihomotoxic therapy for chronic opisthorchiasis: an aggregate clinical estimate].

    PubMed

    Tolokonskaia, N P; Chabanov, D A

    2007-01-01

    The authors have proposed an extended clinical evaluation system that calls for a study of the mechanisms of development and relationships of any symptoms and diseases, including those unrelated to opisthorchiasis. Forty patients who had been diagnosed as having chronic opisthorchiasis and had a long history were examined. There was a drastic reduction in the body's susceptibility to acute inflammations during progressive chronic degenerative diseases just at the age of 17-30 years, which is indicative of systemic responsiveness abnormalities. The practical application of the proposed aggregate clinical estimate system makes it possible to apply a holistic approach to analyzing the patients' health status, to substantially upgrade the quality of clinical diagnosis, and extend the capabilities of a differential approach to evaluating the severity of disease and planning therapy.

  17. Estimation of conjectural variation of competitive electricity prices and consumer response

    SciTech Connect

    Yu, Z.; Lusan, D.; Sparrow, F.T.

    1999-11-01

    This paper reviews major existing models for quantifying competitive electricity pricing strategies. Most of them are game models that assume a set of market behaviors for producers. The competitive producers` behavior is called conjectural variations in economics. Based on observations of the evolving deregulated electricity markets around the world, the paper concludes that none of the existing models can fully explain electricity market power and its impact on prices. One reason is because producers, depending on market conditions, sometimes adopt strategies that violate the assumption of least-cost (i.e., marginal cost) dispatch. Instead, this paper proposes a statistical method for estimating the combined effect of the consumers` responses and the producers` strategies on prices in electricity markets. Market data from the California power exchange (Cal-PX) are used to test the model that produces reasonably good results.

  18. Application of Model Based Parameter Estimation for RCS Frequency Response Calculations Using Method of Moments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reddy, C. J.

    1998-01-01

    An implementation of the Model Based Parameter Estimation (MBPE) technique is presented for obtaining the frequency response of the Radar Cross Section (RCS) of arbitrarily shaped, three-dimensional perfect electric conductor (PEC) bodies. An Electric Field Integral Equation (EFTE) is solved using the Method of Moments (MoM) to compute the RCS. The electric current is expanded in a rational function and the coefficients of the rational function are obtained using the frequency derivatives of the EFIE. Using the rational function, the electric current on the PEC body is obtained over a frequency band. Using the electric current at different frequencies, RCS of the PEC body is obtained over a wide frequency band. Numerical results for a square plate, a cube, and a sphere are presented over a bandwidth. Good agreement between MBPE and the exact solution over the bandwidth is observed.

  19. Development of a fast sampling system for estimation of impulse responses of mobile radio channels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melancon, Pierre

    1994-07-01

    This paper describes the features of measurement equipment developed to measure impulse response estimates of mobile radio channels in less than a ms per measurement. The development of such equipment was required to measure mobile radio channels in realistic operating scenarios, in a normal sized vehicle moving at typical speeds in different environments. Up to speeds of 70 km/hr, the measurement period is short enough to assume the equipment is measuring the same channel during the whole sampling interval. AT the transmitter end of the measurement system, a wideband signal (10 MHz) is produced by modulating a carrier frequency with a 511 bit pseudo random sequence at 5 Mb/s and transmitted through the radio channel. The received signal is down-converted to 70 MHz and demodulated by a complex demodulator. The quadrature baseband signals at the demodulator outputs are then filtered and sampled at high speed by two fast digitizers. During this process, the data are stored in large memory banks to allow a fast sampling rate during a long period of time. Data are transferred to laser disks for further processing in the laboratory. Impulse response of radio channels are estimated by performing a software correlation between a measurement system back to back reference and real time measurements. A minivan was modified to hold the receiver, digitizers, memory banks and the computer. A shaft encoder was attached to its rear left wheel to trigger measurements while moving. Features of the system are discussed along with the effects of data block length, signal to noise ratio, sampling rate, memory size and phase stability on the design of the measurement equipment. Finally, some measurement results are presented and discussed.

  20. Reliable estimation of biochemical parameters from C3 leaf photosynthesis-intercellular carbon dioxide response curves

    SciTech Connect

    Wullschleger, Stan D; Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Tu, Kevin; Law, Beverly E.

    2010-01-01

    The Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry (FvCB) model of photosynthesis is a change-point model and structurally overparameterized for interpreting the response of leaf net assimilation (A) to intercellular CO{sub 2} concentration (Ci). The use of conventional fitting methods may lead not only to incorrect parameters but also several previously unrecognized consequences. For example, the relationships between key parameters may be fixed computationally and certain fits may be produced in which the estimated parameters result in contradictory identification of the limitation states of the data. Here we describe a new approach that is better suited to the FvCB model characteristics. It consists of four main steps: (1) enumeration of all possible distributions of limitation states; (2) fitting the FvCB model to each limitation state distribution by minimizing a distribution-wise cost function that has desirable properties for parameter estimation; (3) identification and correction of inadmissible fits; and (4) selection of the best fit from all possible limitation state distributions. The new approach implemented theoretical parameter resolvability with numerical procedures that maximally use the information content of the data. It was tested with model simulations, sampled A/Ci curves, and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements of different tree species. The new approach is accessible through the automated website leafweb.ornl.gov.

  1. Estimation and uncertainty analysis of dose response in an inter-laboratory experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toman, Blaza; Rösslein, Matthias; Elliott, John T.; Petersen, Elijah J.

    2016-02-01

    An inter-laboratory experiment for the evaluation of toxic effects of NH2-polystyrene nanoparticles on living human cancer cells was performed with five participating laboratories. Previously published results from nanocytoxicity assays are often contradictory, mostly due to challenges related to producing a reliable cytotoxicity assay protocol for use with nanomaterials. Specific challenges include reproducibility preparing nanoparticle dispersions, biological variability from testing living cell lines, and the potential for nano-related interference effects. In this experiment, such challenges were addressed by developing a detailed experimental protocol and using a specially designed 96-well plate layout which incorporated a range of control measurements to assess multiple factors such as nanomaterial interference, pipetting accuracy, cell seeding density, and instrument performance. Detailed data analysis of these control measurements showed that good control of the experiments was attained by all participants in most cases. The main measurement objective of the study was the estimation of a dose response relationship between concentration of the nanoparticles and metabolic activity of the living cells, under several experimental conditions. The dose curve estimation was achieved by imbedding a three parameter logistic curve in a three level Bayesian hierarchical model, accounting for uncertainty due to all known experimental conditions as well as between laboratory variability in a top-down manner. Computation was performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The fit of the model was evaluated using Bayesian posterior predictive probabilities and found to be satisfactory.

  2. Estimating genetic architectures from artificial-selection responses: a random-effect framework.

    PubMed

    Le Rouzic, Arnaud; Skaug, Hans J; Hansen, Thomas F

    2010-03-01

    Artificial-selection experiments on plants and animals generate large datasets reporting phenotypic changes in the course of time. The dynamics of the changes reflect the underlying genetic architecture, but only simple statistical tools have so far been available to analyze such time series. This manuscript describes a general statistical framework based on random-effect models aiming at estimating key parameters of genetic architectures from artificial-selection responses. We derive explicit Mendelian models (in which the genetic architecture relies on one or two large-effect loci), and compare them with classical polygenic models. With simulations, we show that the models are accurate and powerful enough to provide useful estimates from realistic experimental designs, and we demonstrate that model selection is effective in picking few-locus vs. polygenic genetic architectures even from medium-quality artificial-selection data. The method is illustrated by the analysis of a historical selection experiment, carried on color pattern in rats by Castle et al.

  3. A PerR-like protein involved in response to oxidative stress in the extreme bacterium Deinococcus radiodurans

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Chengzhi; Wang, Liangyan; Li, Tao; Lin, Lin; Dai, Shang; Tian, Bing Hua, Yuejin

    2014-07-18

    Highlights: • We report a novel PerR-like protein of Fur family in D. radiodurans that is not annotated in the current database. • drperR responses to H{sub 2}O{sub 2} and functions as a negative regulator of katE and dps. • We provided implications on how to utilize sequenced genome data and the importance of genome data mining. • This study adds knowledge to complicated regulatory network that responds to ROS stress in D. radiodurans. - Abstract: Response and defense systems against reactive oxygen species (ROS) contribute to the remarkable resistance of Deinococcus radiodurans to oxidative stress induced by oxidants or radiation. However, mechanisms involved in ROS response and defense systems of D. radiodurans are not well understood. Fur family proteins are important in ROS response. Only a single Fur homolog is predicted by sequence similarity in the current D. radiodurans genome database. Our bioinformatics analysis demonstrated an additional guanine nucleotide in the genome of D. radiodurans that is not in the database, leading to the discovery of another Fur homolog DrPerR. Gene disruption mutant of DrPerR showed enhanced resistance to hydrogen peroxide (H{sub 2}O{sub 2}) and increased catalase activity in cell extracts. Real-time PCR results indicated that DrPerR functions as a repressor of the catalase gene katE. Meanwhile, derepression of dps (DNA-binding proteins from starved cells) gene under H{sub 2}O{sub 2} stress by DrPerR point to its regulatory role in metal ions hemostasis. Thus, DrPerR might function as a Fur homolog protein which is involved in ROS response and defense. These results help clarify the complicated regulatory network that responds to ROS stress in D. radiodurans.

  4. Improved Estimation Procedures for Item Response Functions. Final Report on Project NR150-464. Research Report 84-2.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tsutakawa, Robert K.

    This report describes new statistical procedures for item response analysis using estimation of item response curves used in mental testing with ability parameters treated as a random sample. Modern computer technology and the EM algorithm make this solution possible. The research focused on the theoretical formulation and solution of maximum…

  5. Estimating Ordinal Reliability for Likert-Type and Ordinal Item Response Data: A Conceptual, Empirical, and Practical Guide

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gadermann, Anne M.; Guhn, Martin; Zumbo, Bruno D.

    2012-01-01

    This paper provides a conceptual, empirical, and practical guide for estimating ordinal reliability coefficients for ordinal item response data (also referred to as Likert, Likert-type, ordered categorical, or rating scale item responses). Conventionally, reliability coefficients, such as Cronbach's alpha, are calculated using a Pearson…

  6. Recovery of Graded Response Model Parameters: A Comparison of Marginal Maximum Likelihood and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kieftenbeld, Vincent; Natesan, Prathiba

    2012-01-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods enable a fully Bayesian approach to parameter estimation of item response models. In this simulation study, the authors compared the recovery of graded response model parameters using marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Gibbs sampling (MCMC) under various latent trait distributions, test lengths, and…

  7. Response of Key Soil Parameters During Compost-Assisted Phytostabilization in Extremely Acidic Tailings: Effect of Plant Species

    PubMed Central

    Solís-Dominguez, Fernando A.; White, Scott A.; Hutter, Travis Borrillo; Amistadi, Mary Kay; Root, Robert A.; Chorover, Jon; Maier, Raina M.

    2012-01-01

    Phytostabilization of mine tailings acts to mitigate both eolian dispersion and water erosion events which can disseminate barren tailings over large distances. This technology uses plants to establish a vegetative cover to permanently immobilize contaminants in the rooting zone, often requiring addition of an amendment to assist plant growth. Here we report the results of a greenhouse study that evaluated the ability of six native plant species to grow in extremely acidic (pH ~ 2.5) metalliferous (As, Pb, Zn: 2000–3000 mg kg−1) mine tailings from Iron King Mine Humboldt Smelter Superfund site when amended with a range of compost concentrations. Results revealed that three of the six plant species tested (buffalo grass, mesquite, and catclaw acacia) are good candidates for phytostabilization at an optimum level of 15% compost (w/w) amendment showing good growth and minimal shoot accumulation of metal(loid)s. A fourth candidate, quailbush, also met all criteria except for exceeding the domestic animal toxicity limit for shoot accumulation of zinc. A key finding of this study was that the plant species that grew most successfully on these tailings significantly influenced key tailings parameters; direct correlations between plant biomass and both increased tailings pH and neutrophilic heterotrophic bacterial counts were observed. We also observed decreased iron oxidizer counts and decreased bioavailability of metal(loid)s mainly as a result of compost amendment. Taken together, these results suggest that the phytostabilization process reduced tailings toxicity as well as the potential for metal(loid) mobilization. This study provides practical information on plant and tailings characteristics that is critically needed for successful implementation of assisted phytostabilization on acidic, metalliferous mine tailings sites. PMID:22191663

  8. Response of key soil parameters during compost-assisted phytostabilization in extremely acidic tailings: effect of plant species.

    PubMed

    Solís-Dominguez, Fernando A; White, Scott A; Hutter, Travis Borrillo; Amistadi, Mary Kay; Root, Robert A; Chorover, Jon; Maier, Raina M

    2012-01-17

    Phytostabilization of mine tailings acts to mitigate both eolian dispersion and water erosion events which can disseminate barren tailings over large distances. This technology uses plants to establish a vegetative cover to permanently immobilize contaminants in the rooting zone, often requiring addition of an amendment to assist plant growth. Here we report the results of a greenhouse study that evaluated the ability of six native plant species to grow in extremely acidic (pH ∼ 2.5) metalliferous (As, Pb, Zn: 2000-3000 mg kg(-1)) mine tailings from Iron King Mine Humboldt Smelter Superfund site when amended with a range of compost concentrations. Results revealed that three of the six plant species tested (buffalo grass, mesquite, and catclaw acacia) are good candidates for phytostabilization at an optimum level of 15% compost (w/w) amendment showing good growth and minimal shoot accumulation of metal(loid)s. A fourth candidate, quailbush, also met all criteria except for exceeding the domestic animal toxicity limit for shoot accumulation of zinc. A key finding of this study was that the plant species that grew most successfully on these tailings significantly influenced key tailings parameters; direct correlations between plant biomass and both increased tailings pH and neutrophilic heterotrophic bacterial counts were observed. We also observed decreased iron oxidizer counts and decreased bioavailability of metal(loid)s mainly as a result of compost amendment. Taken together, these results suggest that the phytostabilization process reduced tailings toxicity as well as the potential for metal(loid) mobilization. This study provides practical information on plant and tailings characteristics that is critically needed for successful implementation of assisted phytostabilization on acidic, metalliferous mine tailings sites.

  9. Understanding water extremes with caution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stehlík, Milan; Stehlíková, Silvia; Torres, Sebastián

    2016-06-01

    We discuss a sensitive topic, how to scientifically estimate extremes in water quality managements. Such extremes are incorporating establishment of thresholds or levels of certain chemicals in the drinking water. In particular, we address the water fluoridation and quality of drinking water in Chile. Statistical approaches demonstrating the necessary background of water manager will be given in a survey exposition to establish link between statistics of extremes and practice.

  10. Effects of gender and body weight on fibroblast growth factor 23 responsiveness to estimated dietary phosphorus.

    PubMed

    Ohta, Hiroyuki; Sakuma, Masae; Suzuki, Akitsu; Morimoto, Yuuka; Ishikawa, Makoto; Umeda, Minako; Arai, Hidekazu

    2016-01-01

    Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) is a molecule involved in regulating phosphorus homeostasis. Although some studies indicated an association between serum FGF23 levels and sex, the association has not been fully investigated. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether sex could influence FGF23 responsiveness to dietary phosphorus intake in healthy individuals. Thirty two healthy subjects between 21 and 28 years were recruited for this study. Subjects performed 24-hour urine collection and blood samples were collected. We estimated phosphorus intake (UC-P) from the urine collection (UC), and evaluated any association between UC-P and serum FGF23 levels. Subsequently, we compared serum FGF23 levels between males and females. Positive correlation was observed between UC-P and serum FGF23 levels. Serum FGF23 levels were significantly higher in males than in females. Serum FGF23 levels/UC-P was significantly higher in females than in males. There was no significant difference in serum FGF23 levels/UC-P/BW between the male and female groups. Our results indicate that there was no gender difference between FGF23 responsiveness to phosphorus intake per body weight.

  11. Estimating the regional climate responses over river basins to changes in tropical sea surface temperature patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, Chii-Yun; Forest, Chris E.; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-10-01

    We investigate how to identify and assess teleconnection signals between anomalous patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) changes and climate variables related to hydrologic impacts over different river basins. The regional climate sensitivity to tropical SST anomaly patterns is examined through a linear relationship given by the global teleconnection operator (GTO, also generally called a sensitivity matrix or an empirical Green's function). We assume that the GTO defines a multilinear relation between SST forcing and regional climate response of a target area. The sensitivities are computed based on data from a large ensemble of simulations using the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 3.1 (CAM 3.1). The linear approximation is evaluated by comparing the linearly reconstructed response with both the results from the full non-linear atmospheric model and observational data. The results show that the linear approximation can capture regional climate variability that the CAM 3.1 AMIP-style